Fed seen deferring rate cuts as inflation stays elevated --Federal Reserve policymakers looking for more evidence that price pressures are easing got little of that on Tuesday, after a government report showed consumer inflation ran higher than expected last month. The consumer price index rose 3.1% in January from a year earlier, down from its 3.4% pace in December but more than the 2.9% economists polled by Reuters had been expecting. Underlying core inflation, which strips out energy and food prices, rose 3.9% from a year earlier for a second straight month. Driving inflation's strength was an acceleration in shelter costs. Traders of futures contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate were quick to bet the news means it will be June before the Fed policymakers get enough confidence in inflation's downward trajectory to start cutting rates. They had been betting on rate cuts to start at the Fed's April 30- May 1 meeting. “If this keeps up with another month or two of inflation staying high, you can kiss a June (rate cut) goodbye and we’re probably looking at September,” "“It’s a hotter-than-expected report and it’s part of what the Fed has been alluding to when it says it’s too early to say that inflation has been beaten.”
Tax Refunds Crater A Recessionary 57%, Sparking Fears About Collapse In Low Income Spending -- Anyone who has been following the monthly data on government receipts and outlays will know that while US government spending has "stabilized" around half a trillion every month, a staggering amount for a nation that now spends more than a trillion every year on interest expense alone, and which will grow to $1 trillion per month in ten years at the current rate... ... has probably expressed great concern at the unexpected collapse in government receipt (remember when this was supposed to "normalize" last November when California taxes were supposed to finally come in but didn't, good times) which according to the latest budget statement are down a staggering 6.2% YoY. Two things here: i) every time US tax receipts have declined, the US was in, or about to enter, a recession; and ii) the last three times tax receipts fell this low, was after the tech bubble and the credit bubble burst, and after Covid shut down the global economy for 3 months.
Senate Takes Another Step Toward Passing $95 Billion Foreign Military Aid Bill - The Senate on Sunday took another step toward passing a $95 billion foreign military aid bill that includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.The Senate worked through the weekend to deliberate the legislation and voted 67-26 in a procedural vote to move it forward. The chamber held a similar vote last Thursday to deliberate on the legislation, which also passed with 67 votes in favor.The final vote is expected to happen sometime this week, but it’s unclear when that will happen as Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) continues to vow to do anything he can to delay it.Paul said he would hold out until “hell freezes over” and indicated he would delay the vote by speaking about the national debt on the Senate floor.“I love to talk,” Paul said, according to CNN. “That’s one of my favorite things to do. Yes, and I slept all day yesterday waiting for this. I’m going to take Adderall — nah, I’m just kidding.”According to NBC News, Paul estimated on Sunday that a final vote would likely be held on Tuesday or Wednesday after he exhausts his ability to delay it.If all 100 senators agreed to hold a final vote, it would happen much more quickly. Proponents of the bill believe that the procedural vote is a preview of the final vote, so they expect it to ultimately pass.“I think we’re going to pass this spending bill for Ukraine. We’ve already moved past several procedural hurdles that require 60 votes. I think there will be 60 votes in the end,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT). The bill is what’s left after Democrats stripped border provisions from a $118 billion piece of legislation that was negotiated with Republicans. Senate Republicans initially agreed on the deal, but later came out against it once it became clear it wouldn’t make it through the House. At this point, it’s unclear if the $95 billion foreign military aid bill will be brought to a vote in the House.
Senate pushes Ukraine funding forward despite conservative delay tactics --A bipartisan coalition of senators on Monday night took another step toward passing funding for Ukraine, Israel and other defense priorities, approving three procedural motions over the staunch opposition of conservatives who have pulled out all the stops to delay the bill. Senators voted 66-33 to end dilatory debate on the $95 billion package, setting up a final vote for early Tuesday morning to send it to the House, where it faces an uncertain future. Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) voted no. Merkley had voted with Democrats to advance the bill on earlier procedural votes. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) touted the bill before the vote as a “down payment for the survival of Western democracy and the survival of American values.” He urged colleagues to wrap up the debate, which has stretched for nearly a week, telling them “it has been long enough” since President Biden first requested the package in October. Democratic and Republican senators who voted to advance the measure hope strong bipartisan support will give it enough political momentum to spur Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring it to the House floor. Johnson, however, fired a warning shot on Monday just minutes before the Senate kicked off its first vote, slamming the bill for its lack of border provisions. “[I]n the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson wrote. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.” The debate on the bill spilled over the weekend and into a scheduled two-week recess, laying bare deep divisions within the Senate Republican conference over the war in Ukraine and how to respond to the crisis at the border. It also revealed the animosity Senate conservatives, emboldened by former President Trump, hold toward their own leadership. During the past week of Republican infighting, Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Mike Lee (R-Utah) called on Senate Republican Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to step down from his leadership post. Even McConnell’s home state colleague, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), called the GOP leader’s support for the emergency foreign aid package “outrageous.” But McConnell pushed back on his critics by arguing that the nation’s policymakers can’t afford to play politics at the expense of the nation’s security. He warned Sunday the global order “in which American support is craved and American strength is feared is in doubt.” “And we, the United States of America, have the most to lose,” he said. McConnell dismissed his harshest critics in the Senate Republican conference, accusing them of holding grudges after losing the 2022 leadership election when they backed Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-Fla.) unsuccessful leadership bid. “They’ve had their shot,” he told The Associated Press last week. Senators on Monday cast their fourth and fifth votes to advance the package, which includes $60 billion for Ukraine; $14 billion for Israel; $9 billion for humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza, the West Bank and Ukraine; and $4.8 billion to support allies in the Indo-Pacific. It also includes the FEND Off Fentanyl Act, which would empower Biden to sanction transnational criminal organizations that traffic fentanyl. Senate leaders advanced the package without a bipartisan border reform deal that had been negotiated by Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), which GOP conservatives said fell well short of the strict reforms in the House-passed Secure the Border Act, H.R. 2. Conservative senators led by Cruz, Lee, and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) rebelled against the border deal, arguing it would make the migration problem worse. Trump, the likely Republican nominee, also urged Republicans to reject it, telling allies he didn’t want to give Biden a political win.
Speaker Johnson fires warning shot as Senate prepares to vote on Ukraine aid - Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) fired a warning shot at the Senate’s foreign aid package Monday night, criticizing the $95.3 billion supplemental as the upper chamber inches closer to a final vote on the legislation. In a statement, Johnson slammed the package for excluding border security provisions — ”the Senate’s foreign aid bill is silent on the most pressing issue facing our country” — and suggested that he will not bring it to the floor for a vote if it clears the upper chamber. “[In] the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson wrote. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.” The criticism from Johnson came minutes before the Senate advanced the foreign aid supplemental — which includes funding for Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific allies — in a series of three procedural votes. The Speaker’s Monday night statement marks the second time this month that he has thrown cold water on a foreign aid package crafted in the Senate, raising more questions about the fate of Ukraine aid on Capitol Hill — a controversial matter in the Republican Party and, especially, the House GOP conference. Former President Trump has urged Republican lawmakers to reject additional aid for Ukraine, in line with his “America First” mantra, and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has threatened to bring a motion to vacate against Johnson if he brings Ukraine aid to the floor. The Speaker for months has said that any aid for Ukraine must be paired with border security legislation, seen as a sweetener of sorts for GOP lawmakers skeptical of sending additional assistance to Kyiv. But earlier this month — after a bipartisan group of senators struck a deal on border security legislation, which was meant to unlock Ukraine aid — Johnson declared the foreign-aid-plus-border-security package dead on arrival, arguing that the provisions would not help alleviate the situation at the southern border. Conservatives also slammed the legislation. The GOP backlash thwarted the package — which Johnson on Monday said was “the right thing” — prompting Senate leaders to put a foreign aid bill on the floor without border security legislation. Johnson, however, is now rejecting that legislation, demanding the Senate take up H.R. 2, the conservative border security bill House Republicans passed last year — which Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) refused to bring it to the floor for a vote. “House Republicans were crystal clear from the very beginning of discussions that any so-called national security supplemental legislation must recognize that national security begins at our own border. The House acted ten months ago to help enact transformative policy change by passing the Secure Our Border Act, and since then, including today, the Senate has failed to meet the moment,” Johnson said. The Speaker said instead of putting the foreign aid bill on the floor, the Senate “should have gone back to the drawing board to amend the current bill to include real border security provisions that would actually help end the ongoing catastrophe.” Johnson has also called for accountability measures when discussing aid for Ukraine, and has asked the Biden administration to prove its end-game strategy in the ongoing war. The Speaker’s dismissal of the Senate’s foreign aid bill comes as Ukrainian officials, the White House and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle sound the alarm about Kyiv needing more U.S. support as its war against Russia approaches the two-year mark. His rejection of the Senate bill, however, does not mean the package is completely finished in the House. Lawmakers could force the supplemental to the floor through a discharge petition, which requires support from a majority of the chamber — meaning bipartisan participation. Democrats have a “ripe” discharge from last year’s debt limit showdown that already has 213 signatures. Five more would be a majority of the chamber.
Speaker Johnson rebuffs Senate Ukraine package -- Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Monday rejected a bipartisan Senate proposal providing aid to Ukraine and other foreign allies, raising new questions about how — or if — Congress will adopt the assistance ahead of November’s elections. The Senate legislation, which would provide billions of dollars in military assistance for Ukraine and Israel, among other foreign aid provisions, is on its way to passing through the upper chamber early Tuesday morning with more than a dozen Republicans on board. But Johnson is sending clear signals that he won’t bring the bill to the House floor because it lacks the tougher border security measures House Republicans had demanded months ago, at the outset of debate. “[In] the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” Johnson said Monday night in a statement. “America deserves better than the Senate’s status quo.” The Speaker’s position is a shot at his Senate counterpart, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who is racing to secure more funding for Ukraine’s beleaguered military forces two years into Russia’s invasion. It also aligns House Republicans squarely with former President Trump, the runaway favorite to clinch the GOP’s presidential nomination, who opposes more Ukraine aid and is pressing congressional Republicans to do the same. Johnson’s rejection of the Senate bill does not quite guarantee that the debate over Ukraine funding is dead on Capitol Hill. But it shrinks Congress’s options for getting it passed. Heading into the week, there appeared to be a handful of avenues the Speaker might follow to adopt new Ukraine funding, for which he announced his support shortly after winning the Speaker’s gavel last October. He could either bring the Senate bill to the floor; split the package into stand-alone pieces, to be voted on one-by-one; or attach it to must-pass government spending bills, which are slated for consideration in early March. Johnson’s recent demand for Ukraine aid combined with border security measures, however, seems to eliminate all three of those options. But a fourth remains viable: Ukraine supporters in both parties could circumvent Johnson and force the foreign aid supplemental to the floor through a discharge petition, an obscure procedural gambit which would require bipartisan buy-in. If successful, it would deal a devastating blow to Johnson’s leadership. But it would also keep his fingerprints off of the decision to bring the bill to the floor, insulating the Speaker from any blowback from Trump or his conservative House allies, who might otherwise be moved to file a motion to remove Johnson from power.
US Senate passes Ukraine aid bill, likely to be rejected in House -- The US Senate on Tuesday approved $60 billion in funding for Ukraine, in a bill that the House speaker has indicated will go nowhere in his Republican-majority lower chamber. House Republicans aligned with ex-president and 2024 primary challenger Donald Trump have promised to reject the bill as written, which also includes military aid for US allies Taiwan and Israel.
Senate Passes $95 Billion Military Aid Bill for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan - The Senate on Tuesday morning passed the $95 billion foreign military aid bill that includes money for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan after a rare overnight session where Republican opponents of the legislation argued against it.The bill passed in a vote of 70-29, with 22 Republicans and nearly every Democrat voting to pass the legislation. Only two Democrats — Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) — voted against the massive spending package. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) also voted no.“I voted NO on sending more bombs and shells to Israel. The campaign conducted by the Netanyahu government is at odds with our American values and American law, which requires recipients of American assistance to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid,” Merkley wrote on X.The bill’s fate in the House is unclear as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA)suggested he might not bring it to the floor for a vote. “[In] the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters,” he said in a statement on Monday night.Johnson rejected the initial $118 billion bill that included about $20 billion in border spending, which was the result of months of negotiations between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate. Johnson is not against funding Ukraine and previously tried to pass a stand-alone bill for Israel, but he appears set on wanting another border deal before bringing the $95 billion bill to a vote.If the bill is put on the floor for a vote, it’s expected to pass, as there is still strong support in the House for continuing the proxy war in Ukraine and backing the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. Democratic proponents of the bill could work on getting enough signatures for a discharge petition, which would bypass leadership to hold a vote on the legislation. But that would require cooperation with some Republicans, and it’s unclear how many progressive Democrats might oppose the bill due to the unconditional aid for Israel.
Senate GOP annoyed by new Speaker’s Ukraine move -Senate Republicans did not appreciate Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) attempt to pour cold water on their effort to pass $60 billion in funding for Ukraine and are now ratcheting up pressure on him to bring the bill to the House floor. Johnson took the unusual step of panning the Senate bill Monday evening, moments before senators took three crucial procedural votes to advance the legislation. Twenty minutes before the votes were to begin, Johnson released a statement declaring senators “should have gone back to the drawing border to include real border security provisions that would actually help end the ongoing catastrophe.” It was a rare example of the top Republican leader in the House meddling with the top Republican leader in the Senate’s effort to pass a bill. Some Republican senators thought it crossed a line. “I don’t know why he has to comment on it at all. There’s this process where we pass things and send it over, and they pass things and send it over. And then you take it up,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (N.D.), one of 22 Senate Republicans who voted for the emergency defense spending package. “I do think it’s a little bit bad form,” he added. “The Speaker hasn’t traditionally been that strident.” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) is seen going to votes at the Capitol on January 23, 2024. (Allison Robbert) Cramer, who served in the House from 2013-19, said he thought Johnson taking a shot at the bill right before a vote was “disrespectful” to Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), given how hard he has worked to build support for it. “It’s quite disrespectful to Mitch; it’s quite disrespectful to Republicans in the Senate. This is not a partisan issue for us. It is for them, because everything is for them,” he said of his House GOP colleagues. In the end, 22 Senate Republicans backed the bill in a 70-29 vote, with one senator not voting. Cramer said he wants to cut the new Speaker some “slack,” recognizing he’s under tremendous pressure from former President Trump to go on political offense all the time. “It’s a symptom of what he’s got to do to sort of keep in the game,” he said. One Senate Republican aide noted the Senate bill picked up five more Republican votes after Johnson “tried to kill it,” suggesting the Speaker’s disparaging comments had galvanized some Republican votes. Cramer was one of the five Republicans who voted for the bill for the first time on the question of final passage. The other Republicans who joined him in swinging from “no” to “yes” on the final vote were Sens. Mike Crapo (Idaho), James E. Risch (Idaho), John Boozman (Ark.) and John Hoeven (N.D.). A spokesman for Johnson said the senators’ grumbling over the Speaker’s statement was “not surprising” given their policy differences. “It’s not surprising that some Senators who support the foreign aid bill didn’t appreciate the Speaker’s comments of opposition, just as he’s less than enthused about a minority of Republican Senators telling the House majority what to do. But as he’s said all along, national security starts at our own border. The House will work its will,” Johnsons’s spokesman told The Hill.
White House says House GOP rejection of bipartisan Senate bill helps Russia, Iran -The White House on Tuesday urged House Republicans to reverse course and take up a bipartisan funding measure providing aid to Ukraine, Israel and other allies that passed the Senate in an early morning vote. White House spokesperson Andrew Bates wrote a memo titled “The House should side with American national security and NATO — not Putin and Tehran” after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) rejected the Senate legislation. “Today, the Senate just voted to move forward on many of the most pressing needs of the American people. The onus is now on the House to do the same,” Bates said in the memo. “This is a high stakes moment for American families. It’s also a high stakes moment for House Republicans, because the choice is stark.” The Senate passed the bill to give $60 billion to Ukraine with 70 votes, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) pressured Johnson on Tuesday to bring the bill up for a vote in the lower chamber. The package also includes $14 billion for Israel, $5 billion to help allies in the Indo-Pacific region counter China’s growing influence and $9 billion in humanitarian aid for victims of strife around the globe, including those in Gaza. “Will House Republicans side with President Biden and Senators on both sides of the aisle in supporting American national security? Or will House Republicans, in the name of politics, side with Vladimir Putin and the regime in Tehran?” Bates asked. “The House GOP cannot lose sight of this binary choice. It would be devastating to undercut American national security by voting against our interests and values.” Johnson says the Senate bill lacks the tougher border security measures the House Republicans have demanded, a notion that Schumer rejected Tuesday. Earlier Tuesday, President Biden applauded the Senate for passing the foreign aid package and also urged the House “to move on this with urgency.” “If we do not stand against tyrants who seek to conquer or carve up their neighbors’ territory, the consequences for America’s national security will be significant. Our allies and adversaries alike will take note. It is time for the House to take action and send this bipartisan legislation to my desk immediately so that I can sign it into law,” Biden said in a statement.
Schumer rejects Speaker Johnson’s call to add border reform to Ukraine bill -- Fresh off the victory of passing $60 billion for Ukraine through the Senate with 70 votes, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) didn’t waste any time pressuring Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring it up for a vote in the House. And he rejected Johnson’s demand that the Senate accept tough border reforms to deal with the surge of migrants at the southern border. “Now it’s up to the House to meet this moment, to do the right thing and save democracy as we know it,” Schumer said at a press conference a few hours after the vote ended. Schumer said he hopes to speak to Johnson directly to urge him to put the bill on the House floor. “I would hope to speak to Speaker Johnson directly, and my message is this is a rare moment where history is looking upon the United States and seeing if we will stand up for our values, stand up to bullies like [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and do the right thing,” he said. “I will say to Speaker Johnson: I am confident that there’s a large majority in the House who will vote for this bill. I am confident there are many Republicans in his caucus who feel strongly we ought to pass this bill,” he said. “I will urge Speaker Johnson to step up to the moment and do the right thing.” Schumer stressed the bill got 22 Republican votes in the Senate. And he waved aside Johnson’s demand that Democrats agree to add language to strengthen border security amid a surge of migrants that averaged 10,000 a day in December. “The bottom line is this bill passed with a robust majority. We need to get aid to Ukraine quickly. We cannot dither for another three, four months, and the quickest and best way to do it is to pass the Senate bill,” he said. He argued that Democrats “were willing … to go many steps in the direction of a strong, tough border bill,” emphasizing the border security deal negotiated between Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) earned endorsements from the National Border Patrol Council, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and The Wall Street Journal. “Unfortunately, too many Republicans succumbed to the ministrations of Donald Trump,” he said, referring to the GOP backlash against the bill after Trump urged them to reject the bipartisan deal. Schumer also rejected a proposal floated by Trump to give Ukraine aid in the form of a loan. “Look, the House should pass our bill,” he said. “We ought to stick with this bill. No one even knows how this loan program would work. Because Donald Trump says something off the cuff doesn’t mean Republicans should march in lockstep to do it.”
Lawmakers scramble for Plan B on Ukraine - The refusal by GOP leaders to stage a vote on Ukraine aid is fueling new efforts by lawmakers in both parties to locate a viable Plan B to help the embattled U.S. ally repel Russia’s invasion amid dwindling weapon supplies. The Senate this week passed a foreign aid package featuring assistance for Ukraine, Israel and other overseas allies, but Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) quickly shot it down, saying Congress should not address international problems without also tackling the crisis on the U.S.-Mexico border. That position aligns Johnson squarely with former President Trump and many conservatives in the GOP conference, but not the vast majority of House lawmakers, who are warning of an existential threat to European democracy — and U.S. national security — if Russia prevails. Democrats have been most vocal in their criticisms — at least publicly — warning that congressional inaction is a gift to America’s adversaries and poses a threat to Ukrainian sovereignty, a public pressure campaign designed to force Johnson to reconsider his opposition and bring the Senate bill quickly to the floor. Yet behind the scenes, lawmakers in both parties are scrambling for an alternative approach to get another round of Ukraine aid to President Biden’s desk as quickly as possible, even if it means bypassing Johnson. Rep. Gregory Meeks (N.Y.), senior Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said the most promising tactic on the short list of options is a discharge petition, an obscure procedural mechanism empowering 218 lawmakers to pass bills the Speaker refuses to consider. Discharge petitions are rarely successful, since they require members of the majority party to buck their own leadership. The last one to compel a vote was in 2015. But Meeks said he’s already talking to Republicans about signing on to the petition, and predicted that it was the most viable path to winning Ukraine aid given Johnson’s entrenched opposition. “This is the way to do something bipartisan for our country’s national security, and to stand by our allies,” Meeks said. “It’s urgent. Ukraine needs what they need right now.” Democrats already have a “ripe” discharge petition in their arsenal, a holdover from last year’s debt limit face-off. It has 213 signatures — all Democrats — and will likely gain one more when Rep.-elect Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) is sworn in following his Tuesday victory in the special election to replace former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.). A handful of progressives, however, will likely remove their names from the petition to protest military aid to Israel without conditions on how they use it, which is another key provision of the Senate bill. That would mean more Republicans are needed to sign on — a high bar since, on Capitol Hill, endorsing a discharge petition as a member of the majority amounts to something like a violent affront to your own leadership.
House Democrats Eye 'Back Door' To Force Vote On Ukraine, Israel Funding - After the Senate passed a $95 billion foreign aid package Tuesday morning, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refused to hold a vote on it before Congress secures the southern US border first. In response, House Democrats are laying the groundwork to force a vote on it anyway using a rare procedural move known as a discharge petition, which would require at least 218 signatures - and the support of some Republicans, to bring the legislation up for a vote. The package allocates $60 billion to Ukraine support, $14 billion in military assistance to Israel, $9 billion in humanitarian aid to Gaza and elsewhere, and around $5 billion to defend Taiwan. In a letter to his colleagues, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said that the caucus would use "use every available legislative tool" to advance the bill, and called on "traditional Republicans" to support it. "It’s not too much to ask in America’s national security that we get an up or down vote and let the House of Representatives actually work it’s will," said Jeffries, without explaining how it's a matter of America's national security to defend Ukraine's borders. Johnson told reporters Tuesday that he would "certainly oppose" a discharge petition. "If it were to get to the floor, it would pass — let's just be frank about that," said Rep. Andy Biggs (R-AZ), who said he would personally be a "hard no" on the bill. And Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-INO), a staunch Ukraine supporter (but not so much America's borders), said "We've heard all kinds of rumors about whether the House supports Ukraine or doesn't. It seems to me that the easy way to solve that would be to vote." According to Jeffries, there are "more than 300 bipartisan votes" in the House for the foreign aid package.
White House hits Johnson for going on recess without passing Ukraine aid - The White House on Thursday bashed Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for starting the House recess without bringing the Senate-passed Ukraine aid package to the floor for a vote. The Senate early Tuesday approved a bipartisan funding measure providing aid to Ukraine, Israel and other allies with 70 votes. But Johnson says the Senate bill lacks the tougher border security measures demanded by House Republicans and that he won’t move it in the lower chamber. White House spokesperson Andrew Bates argued in a memo, first obtained by The Hill, that Johnson is cutting and running early to go on recess “instead of ending the harm he’s doing to our national security.” “Every day that Speaker Johnson causes our national security to deteriorate, America loses. And every day that he puts off a clean vote, congressional Republicans’ standing with the American people plunges,” Bates said. “Running away for an early vacation only worsens both problems.” House GOP leadership canceled votes for Friday, and the House will return to Washington on Feb. 28 after the President’s Day recess. Bates noted the split out of D.C. also comes days after former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) won in a New York special election, flipping a GOP-held seat. “The American people are outraged at the damage Speaker Johnson is causing to America’s national security in the name of politics, as voters in New York proved Tuesday,” Bates said. “But instead of ending his politicization of the country’s safety, Speaker Johnson is cutting and running, sending the House on an early, undeserved vacation as he continues to strengthen Russia’s murderous war effort and the Iranian regime at the expense of American national security, U.S. manufacturing jobs, and our closest alliances,” he added. The White House has hit Johnson all week on the issue of border security. A week ago, a group of senators from both parties unveiled legislation that included efforts to tighten security at the border, as well as provide aid to Ukraine and Israel. Republicans who had been demanding that aid to Ukraine be coupled with action at the border argued the package was insufficient, and Johnson said it was dead on arrival in the House, a move that aligned with former President Trump’s desire to run on the border as a political issue against President Biden. Bates argued that the “national security legislation at hand would pass the House with bipartisan support — as it already did in the Senate” and said voters in the New York special election showed the House GOP will be held “accountable for sabotaging American border security and undercutting essential national security alliances.”
GOP House chair: Johnson has no way out of Ukraine floor vote - The GOP chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee was bullish Friday on the chamber delivering U.S. military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, despite the “brainwashing” of some within his caucus who oppose foreign spending because of the crisis at the southern border. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) was committed to eventually moving President Biden’s national security supplemental request, though the pathway remains unclear amid fierce pushback from the far right of the GOP. Speaking during a discussion hosted by the Christian Science Monitor in Washington, D.C., McCaul said Johnson faces two challenging options: bring the supplemental to the floor and face a potential move to oust him from the far right, or let Ukraine backers in the party force the vote and undermine his power. “I think that’s going to be a difficult choice for him, because if they’re threatening a motion to vacate, it’s a tough decision,” he said, referring to the rule that allows one member to force a vote on removing the Speaker from his position. “I don’t see anyway of getting out of Israel, Indo Pacific and eventually Ukraine coming to the floor. He’s either going to have to do it — put it on the floor himself — or it’s going to be by virtue of a discharge petition, which is a complete evisceration of his power, because it basically says we’re going to do this without the Speaker being in charge,” the chairman continued. Lawmakers could “discharge” legislation if a majority of members signed onto a petition to release it – a difficult path that would require most Democrats teaming up with at least a handful of Republicans. While Republicans hold a slim majority, Democrats could lose members of their own party in a discharge petition vote over progressive opposition to sending U.S. military support for Israel. McCaul said Democrats would struggle to win over Republicans, even if they are supportive of Ukraine. “I think Republicans supportive of Ukraine wouldn’t support a discharge, because it’s really going around leadership altogether,” McCaul said. On the other side of the conference, McCaul said convincing the GOP’s Ukraine skeptics to back the supplemental would also be an uphill fight. “There are some [House Republicans] that I don’t think can be persuaded, because the narrative is so strong. I think the sort-of brainwashing, if you will, that we have to choose between our southern border and Ukraine, has been out there. I don’t agree with that,” McCaul said . “I think it’s a false dichotomy. We’re a great nation, and we can do both. I live in Texas. But I think we have to explain to the American people why Ukraine is a national security interest; it directly impacts China and has an impact with Iran and our adversaries.” House leaders said the Senate-passed $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan was “dead on arrival” earlier this month. Johnson has rejected the bill outright because it doesn’t include changes to immigration policy, despite House Republicans also killing a bipartisan Senate deal on the border. McCaul said there’s urgency to pass some sort of aid for Ukraine that would impact Ukrainian plans to launch another counteroffensive against Russia by April. He said the House is likely to focus on funding the U.S. government before a March 8 deadline and then focus on passing more aid for Ukraine.
US Rejects Putin's Latest Offer for Negotiations on Ukraine - The Biden administration has rejected the idea of diplomacy with Russia since the Russian invasion of Ukraine nearly two years agoby Dave DeCamp February 11, 2024 at 2:04 pm ET CategoriesNewsTagsRussia, UkraineThe US has rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s latest offer for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, as the Biden administration has consistently discouraged diplomacy in the nearly two years since Russia launched its invasion.Putin made the offer during an interview with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, which was released on Carlson’s website and X account last week.“We are willing to negotiate,” Putin said. Referring to the US government, the Russian leader added, “You should tell the current Ukrainian leadership to stop and come to the negotiating table.”In response, a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council told The New York Times that the US has no reason to believe Putin is being genuine.“Both we and President Zelensky have said numerous times that we believe this war will end through negotiations,” the spokesperson said. “Despite Mr. Putin’s words, we have seen no actions to indicate he is interested in ending this war. If he was, he would pull back his forces and stop his ceaseless attacks on Ukraine.”The latest US rejection of diplomacy with Russia comes as it’s clear Ukraine has no chance of beating Russia on the battlefield, and Ukrainian soldiers on the frontlines are facing shortages of weapons and personnel.Describing the bleak situation, a Ukrainian battalion commander on the frontlines told The Washington Post: “There’s no positive outlook. Absolutely none. It’s going to end in a lot of death, a global failure. And most likely, I think, the front will collapse somewhere like it did for the enemy in 2022, in the Kharkiv region.”The NSC spokesperson told the Times, “Ultimately, it’s up to Ukraine to decide its path on negotiations.” Zelensky has shown no interest in diplomacy with Moscow and is still pushing his “peace formula” as a plan to end the war, which includes a full Russian withdrawal, Russia giving up Crimea, war crimes tribunals, and Russia paying reparations. Russia and Ukraine were engaged in peace talks in the early days of the invasion, but those negotiations were discouraged by the West.
Trump’s NATO threats split GOP -- Former President Trump’s remarks about encouraging aggression toward “delinquent” NATO members are shining a light on divisions among Republicans looking to safeguard America’s commitments abroad and those backing the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination. Some Republicans have downplayed Trump’s remarks, which alarmed NATO’s chief and member states already raising concerns that a second Trump administration would seek to weaken the alliance. “It’s all sarcasm,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said of Trump’s comments that he would “encourage” Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” with NATO members who are delinquent in offering financial support to NATO. “It’s all about paying the price. You know, most of ’em haven’t done that,” Tuberville added. Other Republicans pushed back on Trump. “I don’t agree by any means that we should turn away from our allies. That, number one, has never been done before, nor should be done,” said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), who has recently been at odds with the former president about Senate border legislation. “Obviously, everyone has an obligation to be able to fill their obligation, but to say, we’ll let you be killed if you don’t, is the wrong way to go.” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) also pushed back on the former president’s remarks. “We shouldn’t encourage anything like that,” she said about Trump’s remarks concerning Russia. “Obviously, the Europeans are our partners. We’ll continue to encourage them to contribute to NATO and do better,” she said. Trump’s criticisms center on efforts to get NATO members to commit 2 percent of their GDP to defense spending — a goal NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at least half of the 31-member alliance are set to meet in 2024. That’s up from seven members in 2022. It’s a long-standing issue for Trump, who during his presidency often pressed allies to meet the 2 percent figure. Trump infused the issue with new controversy during a weekend rally in South Carolina when he told a story of an unidentified foreign leader questioning his threat not to defend members who do not hit the alliance’s defense spending targets. He said he told the leader he would “encourage” Russia to do whatever it wishes and recounted saying, “You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent.” Last month, a senior European Union politician said that Trump, in a 2020 meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, threatened not to come to Europe’s defense if attacked. Although lawmakers passed in December a law barring any president from withdrawing from NATO without the consent of Congress, the text does not address a host of other actions the president can take that could weaken and undermine the alliance. “What we have prevented with the language, which I think is important, is a formal withdrawal from NATO … but the president would have so many different levers, our participation could be diminished significantly,” said Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.), chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “There are so many factors that contribute to our participation in NATO and they generally run through the [Department of Defense] and the president of the United States, that just shutting down or not staffing munitions, removing troops from Europe, all those things are possible.” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) said additional guardrails may be necessary given Trump’s comments “because we can’t afford a president who insults our allies and gives credence to our enemies.” But Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who authored the legislation blocking a presidential withdrawal from NATO without the consent of Congress, rejected that lawmakers need to put guardrails around U.S. commitments. “He [Trump] did not say anything prospective. What he talked about was, he told a story, an analogy, whatever you want to call it about the way he approached it in the past. At no point did he say ‘and I will not defend countries in the future,’ anything of that nature. That’s how it’s being couched, but that’s not what he said.”
McConnell on standing up to Trump, GOP critics on Russia Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) wanted to talk about Ukraine and the need to stand up to Russian aggression before taking any questions from The Hill during a Wednesday interview. The veteran Senate GOP leader, a day removed from what he saw as a significant victory in the Senate’s passage of aid to Ukraine and Israel, said showing resolve to deter foreign aggression is the “single biggest issue we’ve had in a long, long time.” The Senate bill, approved Tuesday in a 70-29 vote, faces an uncertain future in the House after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) issued a scathing statement hours before its passage. And McConnell himself faces real questions about his future as the GOP increasingly takes on the American First isolationism espoused by former President Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination. Yet on Wednesday, McConnell, who will turn 82 next week, signaled confidence about his future, the foreign policy he’s backed and his political leadership in a divided GOP. Given Trump’s opposition to the package and the former president’s lobbying of GOP senators to oppose it, McConnell cast getting 22 Republican votes for the bill as an impressive outcome. “We got about five more than we thought we were going to get,” he said of the vote. “Trump was making some calls. It’s funny to be glad you get 22, but I’ve been on the short end of some of these other things, and 22 seemed like a landslide,” McConnell added. Before taking any questions, McConnell wanted to explain in strikingly personal terms why he was willing to take so much heat from within his conference to get the Ukraine package approved by the Senate. He talked about his long history fighting aggressors and how his father, a “foot soldier” in Gen. George Patton’s army, met the Soviet Union’s Red Army face-to-face in Czechoslovakia after World War II. “I have letters he wrote to my mother during that time saying he thought the Russians were going to be a big problem. And of course, shortly after the war, it was clear they were,”
Biden reaffirms US support for Israel as Netanyahu pledges to proceed with assault on Rafah - Israel is determined to assault Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza where over a million people are sheltering, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Sunday. In an interview with ABC, Netanyahu said, “We’re going to do it. We’re going to get the remaining Hamas terrorist battalions in Rafah.” The assault on Rafah would lead to massive loss of life among civilians. Israel’s genocide in Gaza has so far killed 35,000 people, according to the Euro-med monitor, of whom over 30,000 are civilians. More than 85 percent of the population of Gaza has been made homeless, while one in 10 children under five are suffering from acute malnutrition. Notably, Netanyahu positively asserted that the population of Gaza would be forced to the north, amid widespread warnings by human rights experts that Israel’s real plan is to force the population of Gaza over the border into Egypt to the southwest. “There’s plenty of room north of Rafah for them to go to, and that’s where we’re going to direct them,” Netanyahu said. “And again, urge them and direct them to do so with flyers, cell phones, and safe corridors.” “Our goal,” Netanyahu declared, “is total victory.” Following Netanyahu’s appearances on ABC and Fox News on Sunday, the White House released the readout of a call between US President Joe Biden and Netanyahu, where the American president reaffirmed his support for Israel’s military actions, declaring, in language that echoed Netanyahu’s, that Biden “reaffirmed our shared goal to see Hamas defeated and to ensure the long-term security of Israel and its people.” Biden, according to the readout, “reaffirmed his view that a military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible and executable plan for ensuring the safety of and support for the more than one million people sheltering there.” Given Netanyahu’s assurances that the Israeli military had developed a “plan” to disperse those sheltering in Rafah into northern Gaza, the implication of Biden’s remarks was to green light the planned attack.
The Memo: Looming Rafah catastrophe sparks new progressive rage at Biden -- The dire situation in the Palestinian city of Rafah is the latest challenge to face President Biden as he seeks to navigate the conflict in the Middle East. Progressive activists say he is failing miserably. “We’re tired of hearing that Biden has criticized [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu behind closed doors, or used strong words on a phone call, while simultaneously urging Congress to approve over $14 billion to the Israeli military,” Beth Miller, political director of Jewish Voice for Peace Action, told this column. Rafah, a city on the border with Egypt, is now home to more than half the population of the entire territory of Gaza. An estimated 1.4 million people are sheltering there. Many are refugees from other parts of the Gaza Strip. The Washington Post reported Monday that “families are packed into houses and tents” in the city, while “newer arrivals are sleeping in the streets.” Soon after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing around 1,200 people, Israel began a reprisal campaign. As part of its purported aim to uproot Hamas, it warned Gazans in the north of the strip to move south. Having done so, they are now penned into Rafah as Israel escalates its attacks. Early Monday, Israel reportedly killed around 67 Palestinians, including women and children, in strikes amid a raid that also freed two Israeli hostages. Israel has killed more than 28,000 people in total, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which is run by Hamas. The death toll is estimated to include more than 20,000 women and children. Concern about the situation in Gaza extends internationally and it is not confined to the political left. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, a conservative, said Monday that Israel should “stop and think seriously” before proceeding with further actions in Rafah, The Guardian newspaper reported. Cameron noted that many of the people in Rafah have already been displaced multiple times. “It really, we think, is impossible to see how you can fight a war among these people. There is nowhere for them to go,” he added. But so far Netanyahu has shown no inclination to back off, arguing instead that Israel’s actions are necessary if Hamas is to be defeated. He characterized Rafah as the militant group’s “last bastion” during an interview with ABC News’s “This Week” on Sunday. The Biden administration says it has emphasized to the Israelis the importance of minimizing civilian casualties. At Monday’s White House press briefing, national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Biden is “confident that our Israeli counterparts understand our concerns. We’ve made them privately, we’ve made them publicly. … They’ve heard loud and clear our concerns that the civilians need to be protected.” Biden himself last week called Israel’s overall response to the Oct. 7 attack “over the top.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently said that he told Netanyahu that the rate of the killing of civilians was unacceptably high. On Monday, an NBC News report underlined the apparent extent of White House exasperation with Netanyahu. The report contended Biden had told donors and others in private conversations that Netanyahu is troublesome and impossible to deal with. The report further stated Biden had described Netanyahu as an “asshole” on at least three recent occasions. Speaking at the White House on Monday alongside King Abdullah II of Jordan, Biden said the people in Rafah were “exposed and vulnerable” and “need to be protected.” He said the “major military operation in Rafah should not proceed without a credible plan for ensuring the safety and support of more than one million people sheltering there.” But at this stage, words cut little ice with progressive activists who are outraged by Biden’s broad public support for Israel generally — and by his push for $14 billion in new military aid, without conditions. Kirby, asked Monday whether any action by Israel would force a change in U.S. policy, simply reiterated U.S. support for Israel and actions that it considers necessary in its defense. Eva Borgwardt, the national spokesperson for IfNotNow, an American Jewish group sharply critical of Israeli policies regarding Palestinians, said it was “maddening to hear the president privately expressing frustration with the Netanyahu government while doing everything in his power to drive $14 billion for additional weapons through Congress.” Borgwardt also predicted there would be serious political consequences for the president’s handling of the conflict. “The majority of Democratic voters want a cease-fire, and Biden continues to ignore the fact that his base is watching the devastation in Gaza with horror,” she said. “I’m terrified of Trump and furious with Biden for this catastrophic negligence.”
Israel Proposes Creating US-Funded Tent Cities to Evacuate Rafah - Israel has proposed creating US-funded tent cities in Gaza as part of an evacuation plan for Rafah as Israeli forces are preparing to invade the city, Egyptian officials told The Wall Street Journal.It’s estimated that 1.5 million Palestinians are packed into Rafah, which had a pre-war population of about 275,000. Under the Israeli proposal, 15 campsites of around 25,000 tents each would be created along Gaza’s coast to house the millions of Palestinian civilians sheltering in Rafah.The Egyptian officials said Egypt would be responsible for establishing the campsites and that the US and its Arab partners are expected to pay for the tent cities. When asked about the proposal, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel that several options were being discussed related to evacuating Rafah, none of which have been approved so far.The UN has said it will “not be a party” to the further displacement of Palestinians or any evacuation plans from Rafah because there is nowhere safe for the Palestinians to go. Throughout the Israeli onslaught, Israeli forces have bombed and shot people in areas deemed “safe zones.”A document prepared by Israel’s Intelligence Ministry that was leaked back in October said the best-case scenario for Israel would be to expel all 2.3 million Palestinians living in Gaza into Egypt, which borders Rafah. Israeli government ministers have not been shy about their desire to ethnically cleanse Gaza, but Egypt is holding firm on its position that it won’t allow an influx of refugees into its territory.President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday that he shouldn’t attack Rafah without a plan for the civilians, but the US is applying no real pressure as it continues to provide unconditional military aid. A few hours after the two leaders spoke, Israel unleashed heavy airstrikes on Rafah, killing around 100, as part of an operation where Israel said it rescued two Israeli hostages.
Biden holds back action on Israel despite dire Gaza warnings - President Biden is showing few signs he’s prepared to punish Israel if it refuses to heed his warnings against launching an offensive in Rafah, amid fears of a humanitarian catastrophe impacting more than a million Palestinians. Senate Democrats critical of Israel’s conduct in Gaza succeeded in getting Biden to issue a memorandum putting Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on notice that future U.S. weapons deliveries were contingent on the scaling up of humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians. However, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), the driving force behind the memo, called for Biden to take concrete action. “Unless and until the Netanyahu government allows more relief into Gaza, President Biden needs to invoke section 620-I of the Foreign Assistance Act,” he said from the Senate floor Monday, referring to the provision that blocks U.S. military assistance to any country hindering the delivery of humanitarian aid. “Kids in Gaza are now dying from the deliberate withholding of food. … That is a war crime,” he added. “President Biden must take action in response to what is happening.” Biden officials say they are using “diplomatic levers” to push Israel to respond to their concerns about civilian casualties and a mounting humanitarian crisis caused by Israel’s war on Hamas. “I think the words of the president of the United States, the words of the secretary of State, matter,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said this week under questions from reporters over U.S. leverage. “And we have seen the government of Israel respond to it. Not always in the way that we want, not always to the degree that we want or to the level that we want, but the — our interventions, we believe, have had an impact.” But critics say the president’s words are empty without meaningful actions that compel Israel to change its conduct. The death toll from Israel’s war in Gaza is now approaching 30,000, a figure that includes Hamas fighters but is largely civilians. “It’s all well and good for the president to say he’s concerned and wants things to happen — the actual policy is still unconditional support, and we’ve seen the results of that,” said Matt Duss, executive vice president for the Center for International Policy, describing Gaza as a dystopian wasteland. “We’re in this bizarre situation where the president seems to have taken all the tools of actual leverage — apart from wagging his finger — off the table. We’re now in the fifth month of this catastrophe and still using the same old playbook. It’s baffling.”
US Gives Israel the Green Light to Kill Civilians in Rafah - The US has given Israel the green light to kill civilians in Rafah despite public comments from US officials calling for Israel to come up with a plan to protect civilians in the city, which is packed with an estimated 1.5 million Palestinians. US officials told POLITICO that the Biden administration was not planning any consequences for Israel if it went ahead with a major assault on Rafah, which would inevitably kill a huge number of civilians. “No reprimand plans are in the works, meaning Israeli forces could enter the city and harm civilians without facing American consequences,” the report reads. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby made clear at a press conference on Monday that the US wasn’t thinking about cutting off Israel from military aid if it went ahead with the assault. When asked if the US has threatened to withhold aid, Kirby said, “We’re going to continue to support Israel … And we’re going to continue to make sure they have the tools and the capabilities to do that.” President Biden is also not reconsidering his full-throated support for the Israeli slaughter in Gaza despite reports of him disparaging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in private conversations. Congress is also on board with continuing to support the mass killing of Palestinians as the Senate voted to pass a $95 billion foreign military aid bill that includes $14 billion for Israel. Only 20 Republicans voted for the bill, but the opposition is due to the lack of a border deal, as virtually all Republicans are in favor of unconditional support for Israel, even more so than Democrats in Congress. Rafah’s pre-war population was 275,000, meaning Palestinians displaced from other areas of the Strip increased the population fivefold. The majority of the Palestinians in the city are sheltering in tents in the streets, leaving them especially vulnerable to an Israeli attack. Israeli airstrikes on Rafah on Sunday night into Monday morning killed 27 children and 22 women.
Sen. Van Hollen Calls Israelis 'War Criminals,' Votes to Send Them $14 Billion in New Military Aid - In an impassioned speech on the Senate floor on Monday, Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) called the Israelis “war criminals” for intentionally withholding food from Gaza as children are starving. But on Tuesday morning, Van Hollen voted “yes” on a $95 billion foreign military aid billthat includes $14 billion to support Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians.“Kids in Gaza are now dying from the deliberate withholding of food. In addition to the horror of that news, one other thing is true. That is a war crime. It is a textbook war crime. And that makes those who orchestrate it, war criminals,” Van Hollen said.The senator said President Biden “must demand that the Netanyahu government immediately allow more food and water, and other lifesaving supplies into Gaza and make sure it reaches the children and other people who are starving.”If Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t agree to the demands, Van Hollen said President Biden should invoke Section 620-I of the Foreign Assistance Act. Section 620-I is designed to cut off arms exports to any country that’s restricting the delivery of US humanitarian assistance.Van Hollen also attempted to justify his reasoning for voting to send $14 billion in military aid to people he just described as war criminals. According to The Intercept, Van Hollen cited the $60 billion in spending on the proxy war in Ukraine and the $9.2 billion in humanitarian assistance for Ukraine, Gaza, and other war zones around the world as enough of a reason to pass a bill that will give more weapons to a government that’s killed 12,300 Palestinian children since October 7.The bill passed in a vote of 70-29, with 20 Republicans voting in favor and only two Democrats opposing the legislation. Its fate in the House is unclear as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is signaling he wants a border deal before bringing it to the floor for a vote.
US Reportedly Plans to Send Weapons to Israel as Biden Pushes for Ceasefire = The Biden administration is preparing to send bombs and other weapons to Israel that would add to its military arsenal even as the US pushes for a ceasefire in Gaza, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing current and former US officials. The proposed arms delivery includes MK-82 bombs and KMU-572 Joint Direct Attack Munitions that add precision guidance to bombs, and FMU-139 bomb fuses, the Journal reported, adding that the value of is estimated to be "tens of millions of dollars." The proposed delivery is still being internally reviewed by the administration, the report added, citing a US official, who said the details of the proposal could change before the administration notifies congressional committee leaders who would need to approve the transfer. The US State Department and Defense Department, Israeli Army and Israeli Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the report. As of December 2023, the Biden administration had skipped congressional review of weapons sale to Israel twice. The Biden administration has faced criticism for continuing to supply arms to Israel as allegations pile up that American-made weapons have been used in strikes that have killed or injured civilians. US President Joe Biden said Friday he has had extensive talks with Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in recent days in which he pushed for a temporary ceasefire.
EU's Top Diplomat Slams US for Continuing to Arm Israel - Josep Borrell, the European Union’s top foreign policy official, took a swipe at the US on Monday for claiming it’s concerned about civilian casualties in Gaza while still supplying weapons to Israel to support the slaughter of Palestinians.Borrell was referencing President Biden calling Israel’s military operations in Gaza “over the top” while not changing his policy of unconditional support for Israel.“Well, if you believe that too many people are being killed, maybe you should provide less arms in order to prevent so many people being killed,” Borrell said.“If the international community believes that this is a slaughter, that too many people are being killed, maybe we have to think about the provision of arms,” he added.Since October 7, the US has claimed it is concerned about the civilians killed in Gaza but has shown no interest in cutting off military aid to Israel. “Everybody goes to Tel Aviv begging please protect civilians, don’t kill so many. How many is too many?” Borrell said.NBC News reported Monday that President Biden is still not going to change his policy of “unequivocal” support for Israel’s mass killing of Palestinians despite his recent comments. So far, the Israeli slaughter has killed over 28,000 Palestinians, including more than 12,300 children and about 8,400 women.
US seizes Boeing 747 that Iran sold to a Venezuelan firm (AP) — The U.S. government has seized a Boeing 747 cargo plane that officials say was previously sold by a sanctioned Iranian airline to a state-owned Venezuelan firm in violation of American export control laws. The Justice Department said Monday that the American-built plane had arrived in Florida and would be disposed of. The plane had earlier been transferred from Iranian airline Mahan Air — which officials have alleged provides support for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force — to Emtrasur, a Venezuelan cargo airline and subsidiary of a state-owned firm that had previously been sanctioned by the United States. Officials said the sale, done without U.S. government authorization, violated export control laws and also improperly benefited Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. Mahan Air has for years been subject to U.S. government sanctions. “The Justice Department is committed to ensuring that the full force of U.S. laws deny hostile state actors the means to engage in malign activities that threaten our national security,” Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen, the head of the department’s national security division, said in a statement. The department said the plane would now be “prepared for disposition,” though it did not elaborate. Venezuela’s government on Monday called the transfer a “shameful rapacious operation” and vowed to “take all actions to restore justice and achieve the restitution of the aircraft to its legitimate owner.” Its statement did not provide details of next steps.
Iraq Says It Resumed Talks With US on Future US Withdrawal - The Iraqi government said on Sunday that it had resumed talks with the US on the future of the US military presence in Iraq amid outrage over US airstrikes in the country.“The supreme Iraqi military commission resumed on Sunday its meetings with international coalition forces in Baghdad,” said Iraqi military spokesman Yehia Rasool. “Based on these meetings, a timetable will be formulated for a deliberate and gradual reduction leading to the end of the mission.”The US and Iraq began the talks on January 27, but they were suspended after the January 28 drone attack that hit a secretive US base in Jordan, killing three US troops. Since then, the US has bombed Iraq several times, targeting the Shia militias it claims were responsible.The Iraqi government has opposed all US airstrikes in the country and strongly condemned the latest, a drone strike that targeted a Kataib Hezbollah leader in Baghdad last week. Kataib Hezbollah and other Iraqi Shia militias are part of Iraq’s security forces.In the wake of the drone strike, over 100 members of Iraq’s 329-seat parliament signed a petition demanding the expulsion of US and other foreign forces. According to The New Arab, Mohsen Al-Mandalawi, the speaker of Iraq’s parliament, has ordered the body’s legal and defense committees to discuss the petition. In January 2020, Iraq’s parliament voted unanimously to expel US troops in the wake of the US drone strike that killed Iranian Quds Force Gen. Qasem Soleimani and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. But the US refused to leave, and has about 2,500 troops in the country today.The US is supposedly in Iraq to fight ISIS, but its presence in recent years is more about countering Iran’s influence. The US presence in Iraq also supports the US occupation of eastern Syria, where the US has 900 troops and backs the Kurdish-led SDF.
US needs to take China’s cyber-threat to US infrastructure more seriously - The Chinese Communist Party is accelerating its capabilities to launch a large-scale cyber-attack against U.S. critical infrastructure in the next three years. We must do more planning, preparing, and practicing our response across industry and government. Rather than focus on discrete incidents that can be managed, we need a fundamentally new approach that handles threats more like natural disasters, with implications to regional and national stability. President Xi Jinping has tasked the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. During his Senate confirmation hearing to serve as Indo-Pacific Commander, Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo emphasized that this date was somewhat arbitrary, reflecting the 100th anniversary of the PLA’s formation. An attack could actually occur sooner. The Intelligence Community’s 2023 threat assessment added that these attacks would not be limited to military systems, but also our nation’s critical infrastructure designated by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) as “lifeline sectors:” energy, transportation, water, and communications. Per the assessment, “such a strike would be designed to deter U.S. military action by impeding U.S. decision-making, inducing societal panic, and interfering with the deployment of U.S. forces.” CISA Director Jen Easterly reinforced these themes in her recent testimony to the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition. The threat is not only unequivocal, but tangible. The FBI recently disrupted Chinese nation-state hackers, operating under the codename “Volt Typhoon,” in their targeted campaign against critical infrastructure networks. The group had established a covert network of hacked systems that gave it a national platform to manage attacks on industrial systems.This week, several U.S. federal agencies as well as allied cyber agencies in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom issued a joint cybersecurity advisory on the malicious Volt Typhoon cyber activity, as well as joint guidance to provide threat detection information and mitigations.However, most of the ongoing policy debate fixates on the past. A series of decade-old executive orders and policy directives created our current ecosystem of sector risk management agencies and the incident response role of CISA and the FBI. Current proposed reforms focus on small changes to existing policies and the layering of new programs on top of old. Given the articulated threat, these actions are woefully inadequate. Instead, we must dramatically increase our capacity to respond to cascading failures of the systems that underpin American life. A 100-foot tsunami is coming, and we’re rearranging sandbags on the ground.
Mike Turner asks Biden to declassify 'national security threat' details -House Intelligence Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) made a cryptic call for President Biden to declassify information about a “serious national security threat” to allow for public discussions about how the U.S. should respond. But Turner’s call was largely out of step with other voices in Congress who said the matter, while serious, was no call for alarm. The ranking member on the panel, Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), said it was not one of great urgency and that “people should not panic.” “Today, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has made available to all Members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat,” Turner said in the statement. “I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat.” Late Tuesday, Turner sent a “Dear Colleague” letter noting the committee voted to make information about “an urgent matter with regard to a destabilizing foreign military capability that should be known by all Congressional Policy Makers.”Lawmakers are invited to the committee’s sensitive compartmented information facility space to review the information over the rest of the week, according to the letter obtained by The Hill.But lawmakers were mum about the contents of the intelligence amid reports it related to the potential for Russian aggression from space.ABC News reported Wednesday that the intelligence concerned Russian plans to use nuclear weapons in space to target U.S. satellites. CNN also reported Wednesday that the intelligence in question relates to Russia, while Politico reported Tuesday that it’s related to space. Turner, who often sends statements in conjunction with Himes, did not do so Wednesday.Himes held back criticism of Turner but said, “Thanks, Mike,” when a reporter noted the panic being caused by the statement.“Look, Mike is right to highlight this issue. But it’s so sensitive that [we’re] right now not publicly discussing. And I don’t want people thinking that, you know, Martians are landing or that your Wednesday is going to be ruined. But it’s something that the Congress the administration does need to address in the medium to long run,” Himes said.
Mulvaney ‘absolutely stunned’ by Turner national security warning -Trump White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney said he was “absolutely stunned” as to why Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) published a cryptic message urging President Biden to declassify information on a “serious national security threat” on Wednesday.Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and other members of Congress have reassured the public that the classified information in question does not pose an immediate threat to the country.“I saw Chairman Turner’s statement on the issue and I want to assure the American people, there is no need for public alarm,” Johnson told reporters in the Capitol on Wednesday. “We are going to work together to address this matter, as we do all sensitive matters that are classified.”Mulvaney told The Hill on NewsNation’s Blake Burman that he couldn’t understand why Turner put out the message.“I’m absolutely stunned by Mike Turner’s comment today, trying to figure out what good he was trying to accomplish,” Mulvaney said. “There’s no reason for Mike Turner to do this. If it was really serious and it’s a clear and present danger, to use a legal term, then you certainly wouldn’t want it to be public. There’s no reason to make this [statement] to declassify this.”Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) told Burman earlier Wednesday that the classified information Turner references in his message is not immediately dangerous.“The information that I read isn’t going to cause me any clear and present alarms to the American people,” Donalds said. “Having read it, I’m glad I’m apprised of it. But in terms of do I feel it’s something actionable today? I don’t believe so.”Mulvaney speculated as to why Turner may have put out the statement, connecting it to Turner’s support for Ukraine aid and the recent failure of efforts to fund aid for the country.“That’s the only thing that seems to tie up with the facts so far, that Mike Turner wants more money for Ukraine, and he’s decided to do this to scare people into voting for it,” Mulvaney said. “And that is a stunning development, if it’s true, from the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.”
Ahead of South Carolina primary, Trump pledges mass deportations, police state actions if elected president -- Ahead of the South Carolina Republican primary on February 24, former President Donald Trump escalated his fascistic attack on immigrants while campaigning in Conway in front of a few thousand people. “We are allowing people to pour into our country,” Trump taunted. “They are going to cause tremendous problems. They are coming in from everywhere… millions of illegal aliens unchecked from Somalia, the Congo, Libya, Iran… lot of people coming from China, Russia.” Painting immigrants as an invading army, Trump said there are “very few women coming in.” Instead they were mostly “18–25-year-old men, fighting age. They have something planned… They are destroying our country.” Trump was joined by virtually the entire Republican leadership in South Carolina, including Gov. Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Reps. Russel Fry, Nancy Mace, William Timmons and Joe Wilson. Trump specifically boasted about his role in sinking the bipartisan anti-immigrant and war package that President Joe Biden demanded passage of last week. “We crushed crooked Joe Biden’s disastrous open borders bill,” Trump bragged, adding, “[House Speaker] Mike Johnson did a very good job. We saved America from a very horrific Biden betrayal.” While that bill has been defeated, in a rare Sunday vote, senators from both parties voted, 67–27, to advance a $95.3 billion military package for Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific, which was stripped of the border provisions that had been previously negotiated. Prior to the vote, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) demanded the bill’s passage, writing on his Twitter/X account, “If America doesn’t send aid to Ukraine with this national security bill, Putin is all too likely to succeed. The only right answer to this threat is for the Senate to face it down unflinchingly, by passing this national security bill ASAP.” While Democrats focus on war above all else, in his speech Trump claimed that Biden’s “horrendous border plan would have allowed millions upon millions” to “flood into the country unchecked.” Trump promised, if elected, to carry out the largest mass domestic deportation operation in the history of America. “The border problem is a big problem,” Trump said, “On day one I will terminate every open border policy of the Biden administration, and I will carry out the largest domestic deportation operation in American history. We have no choice. We have no choice.” Appealing to police and government agents, Trump promised that if elected he would indemnify police from being sued by “the radical left for taking strong actions on crime.” Trump’s police state plans are not just idle boasting. In an article published by the Atlantic titled “Trump’s ‘Knock on the Door,’” the magazine reported on an extended interview Stephen Miller, Trump’s former senior advisor and speechwriter, conducted with Charlie Kirk, the far-right leader of Turning Point USA, last November. Miller was the architect of several of Trump’s anti-immigrant proposals and will likely have a senior role in any future administration. In the interview, Miller explained how a future Trump administration would deport some 10 million “foreign-national invaders.” Miller said that in order to carry out large-scale deportations, the administration would “deputize” National Guard soldiers from states with Republican governors to serve alongside ICE and Border Patrol. “You go to the red-state governors and say, ‘Give us your National Guard,’” Miller told Kirk. “We will deputize them as immigration-enforcement officers.” These newly deputized National Guard soldiers, Miller explained, would then go “around the country arresting illegal immigrants in large-scale raids.”
Biden DHS May Release Thousands Of Detained Illegals Over $700 Million Budget Shortfall - While Democrats and RINOs fight to send $75 billion to Ukraine and Israel, US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is planning to release thousands of immigrants, and significantly curtail its ability to hold detainees, after the failure of a Senate border bill that would have erased a $700 million budget shortfall, according to the Washington Post, citing four officials at ICE and the Department of Homeland Security. In short: because Ukraine didn't get their money, Biden('s operatives who are actually running the government) - a good friend of Ukraine, is going to hurt America, as opposed to simply closing the border via Executive Order and diverting Pentagon funding like Trump did (until the liberal 9th Circuit in California ruled it unlawful). And recall, the Biden administration is fighting with Texas to remove razor wire. After the Ukraine bill failed, which contained $6 billion in supplemental funding for ICE enforcement operations, agency officials began circulating an internal proposal to slash costs by releasing thousands of detainees, and reducing the number of beds in detention centers from 38,000 to 22,000. Let's not forget that the failed Ukraine bill would also allow 5,000 migrants into the country daily. All of this comes ahead of an expected annual spike in migration this coming spring. According to the report, DHS could try and plug the gap at ICE by diverting funds from the Coast Guard, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), or other agencies within the department. ICE officials tell the Post that the $700 million deficit is the largest projected shortfall the agency has had in recent memory.
GOP’s McClintock says his vote won’t change against Mayorkas impeachment - Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) said Monday that he will again vote against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, just a week after he became one of only three House Republicans to oppose the historic effort to remove the Cabinet official. “Well, the Constitution hasn’t changed since last week, so my vote is not going to change,” McClintock said in an interview on NewsNation’s “The Hill,” when asked how he plans to vote Tuesday, when the House is expected to attempt a redo at last week’s failed impeachment vote. “These are the same reasons I vigorously oppose the sham impeachment of Donald Trump. It dumbs down the standard for impeachment and assurance is going to become a constant fixture in our national life whenever the White House is held by one party and in the Congress by the other,” McClintock said. McClintock said he has not faced pressure from his party, nor from Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who suffered an embarrassing defeat last week when the impeachment vote failed to get sufficient support. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), who missed last week’s vote because he was getting cancer treatment, is expected to return Tuesday and provide the GOP the single vote needed to push the impeachment measure beyond the majority threshold. “Mike [Johnson] called me, I explained my reasons, and he was very respectful of them. And that was it. I have not had any pressure put on me,” he said, adding, “Maybe it’s because, well, as Churchill said, they can’t kick me around. I’m not kickable.” McClintock was joined by two House Republicans last week in opposition of the impeachment vote: Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.), who had previously announced his retirement, and Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wisc.), who announced Saturday he would not seek reelection – just days after he broke with his party and opposed Mayorkas’s impeachment. McClintock said in the interview he was “devastated” by Gallagher’s decision but that he would not seek the same path. “I was devastated by Mike’s announcement because I think he is a very capable and principled individual. I don’t agree with him on everything, but you have to take his opinions very, very seriously, because he thinks them through. That’s exactly the kind of — and he stands by them — and I think that’s exactly the kind of person we need more of in the House of Representatives, not less of.” McClintock also said he plans on supporting former President Trump’s bid for president even though he conceded Trump was not his first choice. He was not sure if Trump would oppose his reelection bid.
Speaker Johnson: Mayorkas ‘deserves to be impeached’ - Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Tuesday night that Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas “deserves to be impeached” and defended a GOP case that has been criticized by the left and right. “From his first day in office, Secretary Mayorkas has willfully and consistently refused to comply with federal immigration laws, fueling the worst border catastrophe in American history. He has undermined public trust through multiple false statements to Congress, obstructed lawful oversight of the Department of Homeland Security, and violated his oath of office,” Johnson wrote. “Alejandro Mayorkas deserves to be impeached, and Congress has a constitutional obligation to do so … Since this Secretary refuses to do the job that the Senate confirmed him to do, the House must act.” The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) described the impeachment articles as not containing “a shred of evidence or legitimate Constitutional grounds.” Republicans in the articles accuse Mayorkas of “willful and systemic refusal to comply with the law,” claiming he violated immigration laws by failing to detain a sufficient number of migrants. But no administration has ever detained all migrants, and immigration law experts who have weighed the claim determined Mayorkas did not violate any laws and is making the same tough choices past administrations have grappled with about whom they have the resources to detain. Similarly, GOP claims he lied to Congress rest largely on testimony he’s given where he’s maintained the government has operational control of the border, which Republicans dispute. Republicans have pointed to his testimony about the Secure Fence Act, which defines operational control of the border as a status in which not a single person or piece of contraband improperly enters the country. No secretary of Homeland Security has met that standard of perfection. “I do, and congressman, I think the secretary of Homeland Security would have said the same thing in 2020 and 2019,” Mayorkas said in a 2022 exchange when asked if he met the standard.
Republicans impeach Mayorkas in historic vote - House Republicans on Tuesday narrowly secured a historic vote to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, rallying GOP members after a first failed effort. Mayorkas is the first Cabinet official to be impeached since the 1870s, a vote made all the more remarkable by Republicans’ inability to pass the same articles of impeachment last week, when three GOP members joined Democrats to tank the resolution, citing concerns their colleagues were abusing their impeachment power. The articles are not expected to move in the Democrat-led Senate. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) described the vote as advancing “without a shred of evidence or legitimate Constitutional grounds.” Tuesday’s 214-213 vote is a recovery from an embarrassing speed bump for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), whose fractious conference — particularly Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — had made impeaching Mayorkas a priority as they seek to make the border a central issue ahead of November. “Alejandro Mayorkas deserves to be impeached, and Congress has a constitutional obligation to do so,” Johnson said in a statement after the vote. Johnson had to contend with a razor-thin majority, a vote in New York Tuesday night that could narrow that majority even further, and a storm that threatened to keep Republicans from the Capitol. The vote was made possible only by the return of House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.), who missed last week’s vote while undergoing treatment for blood cancer. Republican leadership brought the vote to the floor last Tuesday thinking they had enough members to clinch a win, only to be surprised by the return of Rep. Al Green (D-Texas), who left the hospital bed where he was recovering from surgery to cast his “no” vote in a dramatic twist. Republicans did not face such obstacles to their second vote, though they still lost the backing of the same trio of their colleagues, including Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), who announced over the weekend he would no longer seek reelection. Reps. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) and Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) also remained opposed. “House Republicans will be remembered by history for trampling on the Constitution for political gain rather than working to solve the serious challenges at our border. While Secretary Mayorkas was helping a group of Republican and Democratic Senators develop bipartisan solutions to strengthen border security and get needed resources for enforcement, House Republicans have wasted months with this baseless, unconstitutional impeachment,” DHS spokeswoman Mia Ehrenberg said in a statement. “Without a shred of evidence or legitimate Constitutional grounds, and despite bipartisan opposition, House Republicans have falsely smeared a dedicated public servant who has spent more than 20 years enforcing our laws and serving our country. Secretary Mayorkas and the Department of Homeland Security will continue working every day to keep Americans safe.”
Mayorkas impeachment headed toward Senate graveyard - The impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is likely to die a quick death in the Senate after the House succeeded in its second attempt to rebuke the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) chief Tuesday night. Faced with a potential third impeachment trial in five years, the Senate is likely to avoid the matter entirely. Senators expect Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to move to either dismiss the two articles against Mayorkas or to refer them to the committee level, effectively killing the process. The Senate returns to work on Feb. 26 and will immediately be faced with having to fund part of the government by the end of that week. Schumer is likely to focus on that issue and not Mayorkas. “Whether they move quickly to dismiss or bury in committee, I’m not sure. I see no need for the Senate at this point and time, given the fact that we need to, among other things, fund the government, spend any time on this — and there will be plenty of Republicans who agree,” said Jim Manley, a former top aide to former Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid (Nev.). A dismissal could be slightly trickier, however, as it would force Democrats in tough Senate races to vote to get rid of the charges against Mayorkas without a trial. Sending the matter to committee would allow Democrats in competitive races to point to the need for more investigation. One factor helping Schumer is that he is likely to have the votes no matter what route he takes. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) told reporters last week that he is supportive of moving to dismiss the effort, saying that he “just want[s] to get rid of it as quick as possible.” A vote to dismiss the charges requires only a simple majority, as the filibuster is not in play on impeachment matters. It’s also far from clear that GOP senators want to deal with an impeachment trial, as a number of Republicans have been dismissive of the House effort. “I don’t know that there’s anyone gunning to make this a thing,” one Senate Democratic aide said, referring to Republicans. “Whatever is the least dramatic and fastest way to get rid of this is what we’ll likely end up doing.”
D.C. Circuit grills FERC in LNG export fight - A pair of Biden-appointed judges signaled Monday that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission may need to take a closer look at climate and air quality impacts of the liquefied natural gas export terminals the agency approves. The remarks from judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit came during oral arguments over FERC’s certification of a Louisiana LNG project. The hearing occurred just two weeks after the Biden administration announced that a separate agency — the Department of Energy — would pause new LNG export approvals to better account for climate impacts when deciding whether the projects are in the public interest. Two D.C. Circuit judges questioned how that analysis was playing out at FERC, which approves siting and construction of new LNG facilities. The court has previously required FERC to beef up its consideration of greenhouse gas emissions from the energy projects it oversees. Advertisement “I don’t know why [FERC] would be so reluctant to find significance. It seems easier than litigation like this,” said Judge Florence Pan. Pan, a Biden appointee, pressed FERC attorney Susanna Chu to explain how high a project’s emissions had to be to prompt the agency to explore other alternatives. “I think the bottom line is there is no line that you would think greenhouse gas emissions are significant,” said Pan, after some back and forth. The arguments Monday centered on environmental groups’ challenge against FERC’s approval of Commonwealth LNG. The project is slated to be one of about a half-dozen proposed and existing LNG export facilities in southwest Louisiana, including the massive planned CP2 LNG terminal. Pan said that Commonwealth LNG’s emissions are 36 times higher than FERC’s proposed threshold for considering a project’s emissions “significant.” Chu said that FERC has withdrawn that policy. “Why isn’t this project significant under any proposal that you might adopt?” Pan said. Judge Brad Garcia also drilled down on how FERC accounts for cumulative air quality effects of building a project in an area that is expected to host several other LNG terminals. FERC had found that the levels of air pollution from nitrogen dioxide would not be significant, said Chu Even if the emissions from one facility are incremental, said Garcia, a Biden appointee, “why is that relevant to the total level [of emissions], which is what cumulative impacts analysis is asking [FERC] to talk about?” Later in the hearing, he asked John Longstreth, a partner at the firm K&L Gates representing Commonwealth LNG, why FERC would not consider emissions significant if they were counted alongside pollution from other facilities. “It literally does not compute in my head,” Garcia said. The judge also asked Chu to explain why FERC’s determination that Commonwealth LNG was in the public interest was not a basis for sending the analysis back to the agency to offer a better explanation. Chu responded that the Natural Gas Act presumes that LNG exports to free-trade-agreement nations are in the public interest, and DOE has already authorized the shipments. FERC “felt it was on firm ground on approving [the project], because it was required to do so,” she said.
Coalition of states criticize Biden's natural gas export freeze – A coalition of about two dozen state attorneys general sent a letter to President Joe Biden Tuesday blasting the president's recent decision to freeze the approval of new export sites for liquefied natural gas. Biden announced the freeze last month, citing climate change concerns. The attorneys general called on Biden to end the pause, saying it will hurt the economy, national security, and violated federal law. "Your administration's planned 'pause' – which we might more accurately call a series of constructive denials – of most American LNG exports is unlawful for several reasons," the letter said. The attorneys general goes on to lay out those reasons, saying the Department of Energy does not have legal authority to writ large deny the export permits. The letter also points out the agency did not go through the standard rulemaking procedure, a lengthy process that allows input from stakeholders. "Generally, agency legislative rules must go through the APA's notice-and-comments procedures," the letter said. "And the pause here is a substantive rule required to go through that process. The pause effectively commands the Department to stop performing its obligations under the NGA to approve export applications and does not leave the agency free to exercise discretion unless it chooses to disobey the policy. "That's the exact type of substantive rule that needs to go through notice and comment because it modifies substantial rights," the letter adds. The letter comes the same day that House Energy and Commerce Chair Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, R-Wash., held a hearing Tuesday on the export pause. "The administration has made its intentions clear," she said at the hearing. "This is not a 'pause,' as they've claimed. This is a ban. The administration is ignoring the fact that natural gas continues to create millions of new jobs, bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and revitalize communities across the country. The natural gas industry supports millions of jobs and brings tens of billions of dollars to the U.S. economy. "In 2022, in Pennsylvania alone, the natural gas industry supported $41.4 billion in economic activity, and shale gas development supported over 120,000 jobs," Rodgers added. Over the weekend, about 150 House Republicans sent a letter to Biden criticizing the gas freeze. The letter argues that administrations from the left and right have supported gas exports. Energy exports have become increasingly important given the global conflicts with Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East, two of the world's most important energy export areas. Some House Democrats have also attacked Biden's decision, but the White House has stood by it, pointing out that the U.S. is already the world leader in these exports and that those exports are expected to significantly grow in the coming years. "We also must adequately guard against risks to the health of our communities, especially frontline communities in the United States who disproportionately shoulder the burden of pollution from new export facilities," the White House said in a statement. "The pause, which is subject to exception for unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies, will provide the time to integrate these critical considerations."
Future of US LNG hangs in balance as White House weighs geopolitical, environmental interests— The first shipment of U.S. liquefied natural gas left Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass export terminal in Louisiana almost eight years ago, ushering in a new age of American energy exportsto allies around the globe and generating tens of billions of dollars a year for the U.S. economy.But with climate change now gaining bandwidth in global leaders’ minds, the greenhouse gas emissions produced by LNG, while in some respects markedly less than coal, are driving a tense assessment within the Biden administration about whether building more LNG terminals is in the world’s best interests, while they put a pause on permitting.At the center of that debate is the network of American allies now dependent on U.S. LNG, for whom a reduction in American supply could have far-reaching implications beyond climate change, affecting the economic relationships around which so much diplomacy is built.“The climate concerns are real, and they deserve a serious, hard look, but there’s other geopolitical and market considerations we need to take into account,” said Ben Cahill, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “The fact is, gas demand is going to be with us for a long time and there will be multiple suppliers vying to meet that market demand.”The United States exported more than 88 million tons of LNG last year, surpassing Qatar and Australia to become the world’s largest supplier. And with multiple terminals under construction along the Gulf Coast, the sector is expected to grow exponentially in the decades ahead, with research company Wood Mackenzie projecting LNG exports from the U.S. and Mexico to reach a capacity of 238 million metric tons per year by 2050, accounting for 30% of global supply.But in a note to clients last week, the company warned that while a short-term pause on U.S. LNG permitting was unlikely to have much impact on global energy markets a sustained interruption could “have lasting implications on the global LNG market and could affect how buyers perceive US LNG."“While we expect existing LNG buyers to wait in the short term, these and other potential new buyers could start to look at competing projects outside of the U.S., such as those in Canada, Australia and particularly Qatar, as alternative supply sources,” wrote Giles Farrer, head of gas research at Wood Mackenzie.
The unlikely coalition behind Biden’s liquefied natural gas pivot - Environmental activists and community organizers on the Gulf Coast have spent years pressuring the Biden administration to halt the construction of terminals that export liquefied natural gas, or LNG. As U.S. production of natural gas skyrocketed over the past few decades, energy companies began building massive coastal facilities to liquefy the fossil fuel and transport it by ship to Europe, Asia and elsewhere. In response, activists staged protests, organized sit-ins, wrote to members of Congress and broadly made the issue Biden’s “next big climate test.”When the administration announced that it would pause its approval of new LNG terminals late last month, the climate movement and its allies were largely credited with the victory. Bill McKibben, the renowned founder of 350.org (and a former Grist board member), began his blog post about the news by saying, “Um, I think we all just won.” The decision reportedly came about after senior administration officials, including White House climate advisor Ali Zaidi, learned that young activists on TikTok were drawing millions of views elevating LNG as a major climate issue. As if to prove the president was listening, the White House has collected dozens of quotes from climate advocates praising the decision. (In some ways, the activists’ celebration belies the reality that the climate impact of constricting LNG exports is far from certain, and the devil is in the details: While a broader buildout certainly has the potential to promote unnecessary fossil fuel use, it may also speed other countries’ transition away from other, more harmful fossil fuels like coal.) But a broader, less-climate-concerned coalition, representing thousands of manufacturers, chemical companies and consumer advocates, has also been quietly pushing for the pause — and stands to benefit if Biden curbs LNG exports. The more American natural gas that’s available to be shipped overseas, they argue, the more unpredictable the price of the fuel will be stateside. If, for example, an unexpected gas shortage in another country means U.S. gas companies can make more money selling their product overseas than they can at home, prices will rise as the supply is stretched thin. This volatility would hurt not only households that heat and power their homes with natural gas but also the profit margins of big companies that rely on the fuel.“LNG exports put pressure on domestic markets, which…results in higher energy costs,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, an organization representing state officials who administer federal energy assistance programs that help low-income households pay energy bills. “There’s an impact on families that are benefiting from these lower prices. That needs to be taken into account.”Wolfe said that average home heating prices have risen more than 16 percent since March2020, driven in large part by higher natural-gas prices. (Hotter summers also mean utilities need more fuel to power a grid stretched thin by air conditioning in the summer and therefore have less natural gas for heating in the winter.) The result is that 1 out of 6 households nationwide are behind on their energy bills. “If the administration wants to approve these facilities, they should do it in the context of saying, ‘How do we help families pay their bills?’” Wolfe added. It’s not just cash-strapped families that might benefit if LNG exports are limited: The Industrial Energy Consumers of America, or IECA, a trade group representing more than 11,000manufacturing facilities nationwide, has also been arguing against LNG exports. IECA’s members include fertilizer companies, aluminum smelters and glass manufacturers, among others. These industries are heavily dependent on natural gas either as feedstock for production or to fuel their operations. As natural-gas prices rose in 2022, heavy industries that require large amounts of natural gas or electricity — such as fertilizer production and aluminum smelting — saw their costs skyrocket. That year, multiple steel mills, as well as the country’s second-largest aluminum smelter,paused operations in the face of unsustainable costs.Paul Cicio, IECA’s president, has been imploring the federal government to curb natural-gas exports since the Obama administration. The last three presidential administrations “have just ignored consumers’ interests,”
Certified natural gas is ‘dangerous greenwashing scheme’, US senators say -- Certified natural gas – or methane gas that is purportedly produced in a low-emissions manner – is a “dangerous greenwashing scheme”, a group of progressive senators wrote in a letter to federal regulators on Monday. The letter, addressed to Federal Trade Commission chair, Lina Khan, comes as the agency prepares to release its updated Green Guides, which clarify when companies’ marketing claims around sustainability violate federal laws barring consumer deception, giving regulators stronger legal cases against polluters. Those guidelines should “crack down” on claims made by gas certification programs, the lawmakers, led by Massachusetts’s Ed Markey, wrote. “The reality is that gas certification schemes allow the oil and gas industry to justify the continued expansion of methane gas use and undermine efforts towards a just transition to renewables,” says the letter, which was also signed by the senators Jeff Merkley, Sheldon Whitehouse, Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker. The gas sector has long branded itself as climate-friendly, noting that when burned, the fuel generates less planet-heating carbon dioxide than other fossil fuels. But gas – called “natural gas” by fossil fuel interests – is made of methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more planet-heating than carbon dioxide in the short term. Some research even indicates the fuel is worse for the climate than coal.Amid increasing public concern about gas usage and the climate crisis, a new industry of third-party gas “certifiers” has cropped up. These companies develop standards that they use to proclaim that certain producers are reducing emissions from their fracking wells, pipelines and storage facilities, and therefore generating gas sustainably.The companies can then deem certain gas “certified”, “responsibly produced” or “differentiated”, allowing producers to sell it at a premium. Utilities in New York, Vermont, New Jersey, Michigan and Virginia have purchased certified natural gas and plan to pass on the additional costs to customers, the non-profit watchdog organization Revolving Door Project found last year.“Those same consumers are still exposed to hazardous air pollution from burning gas in their homes, and combusting that gas is still contributing to the climate crisis,” said Hannah Story Brown, senior researcher at Revolving Door Project.Gas certifiers’ standards have not appeared to stand up to closer scrutiny. In 2022, for instance, the environmental non-profits Earthworks and Oil Change International spent seven months auditing sensor technologies used by Project Canary, an industry leader among gas certifiers. The groups concluded in a report released last year that the company was consistently failing to detect methane leaks during drilling, fracking, flaring and venting. (Project Canary has said in response that the report contains “inaccurate and misleading claims”.)This lack of robustness, the lawmakers write, comes as no surprise. “The gas companies’ profits depend on the monitoring companies certifying their gas, and the monitoring companies’ profits depend on willing industry customers,” they said. “Thus, there is no incentive to ensure the accuracy of emissions measurements.”
House Votes to Reverse Biden’s Pause on New LNG Exports – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a Republican-sponsored bill on Thursday to reverse the Biden administration’s pause on authorizing new LNG exports. The bill would strip the Department of Energy’s role for determining whether LNG projects are in the public interest and give the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission exclusive authority to approve projects and export licenses. The Biden administration temporarily suspended new project authorizations last month while DOE reviews policies for approving more exports. The legislation faces an uphill battle in the Senate, where lawmakers passed a Ukraine aid bill on Tuesday without any amendments, despite calls from Republicans to tack on measures that would have reversed...
API Files Petition Challenging Biden Admin's Oil and Gas Leasing Program - The American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed in a statement posted on its site this week that it has filed a petition challenging the Biden administration’s 2024-2029 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program. The API highlighted in the statement that the Department of the Interior’s (DOI) final five-year program outlined a maximum of three potential oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico Program Area in 2025, 2027 and 2029, which the API pointed out is the fewest oil and gas lease sales in a five-year program in history. The organization added in the statement that 2024 will be the first year since 1966 without an offshore lease sale. In its statement, the API noted that, for 45 years, the DOI has been required to prepare and maintain a five-year program that will best meet America’s energy needs for the ensuing five-year period, “detailing a schedule for regular oil and natural gas lease sales, including in the Gulf of Mexico”. For the first time, the DOI released the final five-year program for federal offshore leasing nearly 500 days late, the API said in the statement. “Demand for affordable, reliable energy is only growing, yet this administration has used every tool at its disposal to restrict access to vast energy resources in federal waters,” API Senior Vice President and General Counsel Ryan Meyers said in the statement. “In issuing a five-year program with the fewest lease sales in history, the administration is limiting access in a region responsible for generating among the lowest carbon-intensive barrels in the world, putting American consumers at greater risk of relying on foreign sources for our future energy needs,” he added. “Today, we are taking action to challenge this shortsighted program so that future generations of Americans will continue to benefit from our energy advantage for decades to come,” Meyers continued. Rigzone asked the DOI, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the White House for comment on the API statement and the filed petition. While the DOI declined to comment, the DOE and White House have not yet responded to Rigzone at the time of writing. The DOI published the Final 2024–2029 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program on December 15, 2023, noting in a statement posted on its website at the time that the plan phases down oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and includes zero oil and gas lease sales in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Alaskan waters. “Consistent with the requirements of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) concerning offshore conventional and renewable energy leasing, the Department of the Interior today published the final 2024–2029 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program with the fewest oil and gas lease sales in history,” the DOI said in the statement on its site. “The IRA prohibits the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management from issuing a lease for offshore wind development unless the agency has offered at least 60 million acres for oil and gas leasing on the OCS in the previous year. The program schedules three oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico Program Area in 2025, 2027, and 2029,” it added. “These three lease sales are the minimum number that will enable the Interior Department’s offshore wind energy program to continue issuing leases in a way that will ensure continued progress towards the administration’s goal of 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030,” the DOI continued. “The reduction of the next National OCS Program to three lease sales meets the IRA’s requirements for future offshore renewable energy leasing. The areas considered for leasing and number of lease sales in the 2024-2029 Final Program have been significantly narrowed from the previous administration’s original proposal of 47 lease sales off all coastal areas in the United States,” it went on to state. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook, which was released earlier this month, the U.S. produced 12.93 million barrels per day of crude oil last year, comprising 1.87 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, 0.43 million barrels per day from Alaska, and 10.64 million barrels per day from the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico. Dry natural gas production in the U.S. totaled 36.35 trillion cubic feet in 2022, according to EIA figures available on the organization’s website, which were last updated on January 31, 2024. The Federal offshore Gulf of Mexico made up 696.77 billion cubic feet of that total and the Alaska state offshore made up 41.19 billion cubic feet, the figures showed.
Biden’s abortion rhetoric riles progressives for not going far enough - President Biden’s rhetoric on abortion is angering some progressive activists, who say his comments about “abortion on demand” show a reluctance to push for much more sweeping access than just restoring the protections of Roe v. Wade. But Biden’s reelection campaign is holding steady, backed by prominent abortion rights groups that say they recognize the need for short-term victories, and that the main goal is keeping Biden in the White House. Democrats are trying to replicate outcomes of the 2022 midterm elections, when they had better-than-expected results only months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe, largely because they appealed to moderates and independents on abortion issues. The Biden reelection campaign is putting abortion front and center in 2024, a politically expedient move that’s notable because Biden’s personal opinions on abortion are famously complicated. “I’m a practicing Catholic. I don’t want abortion on demand, but I thought Roe v. Wade was right,” Biden said at a private fundraiser last week.
McCarthy says Mace needs help ‘to straighten out her life’ - Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) went after Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) during a Capitol Hill visit on Tuesday, saying she needs to “straighten out her life.” Mace, one of the eight GOP members who voted to oust McCarthy as Speaker last year, is facing a tough primary challenge from her former chief of staff and reportedly suffers from an office staff in turmoil. “I hope Nancy gets the help she needs, I really do,” McCarthy told reporters. “I just hope she gets the help to straighten out her life. I mean, she’s got a lot of challenges.” “No one will stay working for her,” he continued. “You can’t have somebody who just flips and flops based upon what TV station she gets put on. You want someone who’s willing to work, and so I hope she gets that kind of help.” McCarthy resigned from the House in December after losing the Speakership in October. He said he plans to campaign for GOP candidates in the 2024 cycle. Despite saying he’s not rooting against Mace, he did not rule out backing challengers to incumbent Republicans, including Mace. “I didn’t say that,” McCarthy jokingly said when asked about staying out of her primary. McCarthy also made jabs at Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who led the GOP opposition to his Speakership. “He probably lies about who he sleeps with,” McCarthy said, adding that Gaetz and former President Trump aren’t as close as Gaetz leads people to believe.
Marjorie Taylor Greene rips ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’: HBO show depicts Trump supporters as ‘racists and red necks’ - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) is blasting a politically charged episode of “Curb Your Enthusiasm,” saying it “lied” and painted conservatives in her state and supporters of former President Trump as “racists and red necks.”“I watched this week’s episode of ‘Curb Your Enthusiasm’ and it was a glaring reminder of why most Georgian’s resent Republicans in our state for inviting the nasty commies from California, the Hollywood elites, into our state by dishing out Hollywood tax credits,” Greene said in a Tuesday post on X, formerly known as Twitter.The comedy, Greene said, “made fun of our good new law that stops the Stacey Abrams vote pandering machine and prevents voter fraud.”The episode that aired Sunday continued a plotline from the Season 12 premiere of the HBO series that found Larry David’s character arrested for offering water to a voter who was standing in line for hours on a hot Election Day in Georgia.As part of the storyline, David’s arrest becomes a cause célèbre, with cameos from 2022 Georgia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams and Bruce Springsteen.“Larry David is about action, not words. He saw an injustice and he did what he could to right it,” Abrams said in the episode.“Involvement, that’s Larry David’s middle name,” Springsteen exclaimed.Georgia’s Election Integrity Act, which was signed into law by Gov. Brian Kemp (R) in 2021, prohibits the distribution of food or water to voters waiting to cast their ballots at polling locations in the Peach State.
RFK Jr. apologizes after super PAC’s Super Bowl commercial --Robert F. Kennedy Jr. apologized to his family members after a super PAC backing his independent bid for the White House aired a commercial during the Super Bowl on Sunday night.“I’m so sorry if the Super Bowl advertisement caused anyone in my family pain. The ad was created and aired by the American Values Super PAC without any involvement or approval from my campaign. FEC rules prohibit Super PACs from consulting with me or my staff. I love you all. God bless you,” Kennedy wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.American Values 2024 ran a 30-second ad during the Super Bowl that heavily relied on imagery from former President John F. Kennedy’s 1960 presidential campaign. PAC co-chair Tony Lyons confirmed to The Hill that the ad, which appeared just before the halftime show, cost $7 million.Despite Kennedy’s apology and his claim that his campaign was not involved, the ad remainedpinned to the top of his X profile as of Monday morning.Bobby Shriver, Kennedy’s cousin, had criticized the ad in a post Sunday on X.“My cousin’s Super Bowl ad used our uncle’s faces- and my Mother’s. She would be appalled by his deadly health care views. Respect for science, vaccines, & health care equity were in her DNA. She strongly supported my health care work at @ONECampaign & @RED which he opposes,” Shriver wrote.The super PAC has faced scrutiny in recent days after the Democratic National Committee (DNC) accused Kennedy’s campaign of illegally coordinating with the organization last week. Kennedy pushed back on the allegations in a post on X.“After the day they had yesterday, it’s understandable they’d want to put the focus on someone else,” Kennedy wrote Friday. “The DNC is in no position to assert morality over anyone — they refused to have a primary and have worked against the will of the people in the past few elections. It’s sad to see the party my family built crash and burn.”
Amid furor over Biden’s age and acuity: The deeper issues in the Democratic Party crisis -- The crisis that has erupted in the Democratic Party in the wake of the special counsel’s report on President Joe Biden’s handling of classified documents is a manifestation of a far more profound crisis of the entire American political system.The president, his White House aides, Vice President Kamala Harris and leading congressional Democrats have all fired back at special counsel Robert Hur, denouncing his claim that he did not recommend prosecution of Biden because no jury would convict a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” The Democrats have attacked Hur’s report as politically motivated and the product of a partisan Republican, although Hur was appointed by Biden’s own attorney general, Merrick Garland. Such allegations, however, are entirely beside the point. The Hur report has had a devastating impact, in the first place, because its description of Biden is so obviously true. The US president is a man who looks every day his age. He walks stiffly, gestures haltingly, is frequently distracted and off target in his speaking, and he makes verbal slips and mistakes that cannot be dismissed as a remnant of the stuttering he had to overcome as a youth. He has been engaged in intensive political activity at the highest level of the capitalist state for more than 50 years, since he was first elected to the US Senate in 1972, and the wear and tear is there for all to see. The Hur report has not created the crisis in the Democratic Party, only brought it to the surface. The underlying causes include the massive unpopularity of the Biden-Harris administration. This is due above all to its unshakable commitment to imperialist war in Ukraine and in the Gaza Strip, as well as the continued deterioration of conditions of life for working people, and particularly the younger generation: declining real wages, exploding debt for college education, rampant police violence and attacks on democratic rights. Significant sections of the US ruling elite now fear that, on its present trajectory, the 2024 election is likely to end with Trump returning to the White House. Their concern is not over Trump as a threat to democracy—the financial aristocracy has ample experience making use of dictatorial regimes all over the world—but over the foreign policy implications, where the ex-president is regarded as unstable and impulsive. What has staggered the Biden administration, as well as the ruling class as a whole, is the military/political debacle in Ukraine and the worldwide popular revulsion against the US-backed Israeli genocide in Gaza. The mass protests in the United States, particularly by young people, have laid bare the gulf between the policies of the US ruling elite and the democratic and humanitarian sentiments of the vast majority of the American people. There are other implications of this crisis suggested by the analogy to 1968. The withdrawal of Johnson was only the beginning of an immense political upheaval in America, which proceeded through two assassinations—Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy—a summer of urban rebellions, the chaos at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, with the accompanying mass violence by police, leading ultimately to the victory of Republican Richard Nixon, a much-hated political figure who had already been defeated in a previous presidential campaign. It is not possible to determine the exact course of the convulsions that lie ahead. But it is clear that the American political system is in terminal crisis. The two presumptive candidates of the Democratic and Republican parties, Biden and Trump, are deeply unpopular. The choice they offer, World War III with the Democrats and fascist dictatorship with the Republicans (though these are not mutually exclusive) is no choice at all. The frailty and disorientation of the Democrat and the raging dementia of the Republican are themselves symbolic of the sclerotic character of the capitalist system they both represent and defend.
Jon Stewart skewers Biden, Trump in ‘Daily Show’ return: ‘What the f–k are we doing here?’ -- Jon Stewart mocked both President Biden and former President Trump during his return to “The Daily Show,” saying both 2024 candidates are “stretching the limits of being able to handle the toughest job in the world.” After a nine-year absence, the 61-year-old comedian returned to hosting duties on the Comedy Central show to raucous applause on Monday. The cable network announced last month that Stewart would sit at the anchor desk on Monday nights, with a rotating lineup of other hosts on other weekdays. Stewart took aim early in his monologue at Biden and his response to special counsel Robert Hur’s classified records report that drew attention to the president’s age and cognitive ability. “This guy couldn’t remember stuff during his deposition. Do you understand what that means? He had no ability to recall very basic things under questioning,” Stewart said, before then zinging Trump and playing footage of him being unable to recall facts during depositions. “Biden’s lost a step, but Trump regularly says things at rallies that would warrant a wellness check,” Stewart said to laughs. “The question then becomes, what the f—k are we doing here, people?” said a seemingly exasperated Stewart. “We have two candidates who are chronologically outside the norm of anyone who has run for the presidency in this country, in the history of this country,” Stewart said of 81-year-old Biden and Trump, 77. “They are the oldest people ever to run for president — breaking by only four years the record that they set the last time they ran!” Stewart exclaimed. “We’re not suggesting neither man is vibrant, productive or even capable,” Stewart said. Striking a more sober tone, Stewart said, “What’s crazy is thinking that we are the ones as voters who must silence concerns and criticisms. It is the candidates’ job to assuage concerns — not the voters job, not to mention them.” While Biden “isn’t Donald Trump,” Stewart said, mentioning the 45th president’s multiple indictments and legal cases against him, “The stakes of this election don’t make Donald Trump’s opponent less subject to scrutiny.” “It actually makes him more subject to scrutiny,” Stewart said.
Trump says he purposely conflated Pelosi with Haley: ‘It’s very hard to be sarcastic’ - Former President Trump said he purposely conflated Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) with GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley last month. “So it’s very hard to be sarcastic when I interpose. I’m not a Nicki fan, and I’m not a Pelosi fan. And when I purposely interpose names they said, ‘He didn’t know Pelosi from Nikki, from tricky Nikki,” Trump said during a rally in North Charleston, South Carolina, Wednesday. “I interpose and they make a big deal out of it. I said, ‘No, no, I think they both stink, they have something in common they both stink.’ Remember this. When I make a statement like that about Nikki that means she will never be running for vice president,” he continued. Trump appeared to mix up Pelosi with Haley during a campaign stop in New Hampshire last month when talking about Jan. 6, 2021. He was repeating a baseless claim that Pelosi was to blame for security failures at the Capitol on that day, but instead blamed Haley instead of Pelosi. “By the way, they never report the crowd on Jan. 6. You know Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, you know, they — do you know they destroyed all of the information, all of the evidence, everything, deleted and destroyed all of it. All of it,” he claimed last month. “Because of lots of things…like Nikki Haley is in charge of security — we offered her 10,000 people, soldiers, National Guards, whatever they want. They turned it down. They don’t want to talk about that. These are very dishonest people,” Trump continued. The Speaker of the House cannot direct the National Guard. His apparent mixup drew criticism from Haley and President Biden’s campaign. Haley raised concerns over whether Trump is mentally fit enough to be president and Biden’s campaign mocked him for the apparent gaffe. “I don’t agree with Nikki Haley on everything, but we agree on this much: She is not Nancy Pelosi,” Biden wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, at the time. Trump’s campaign rally in South Carolina comes weeks ahead of the primary election in the state. Haley remains the only major challenger to Trump in the race and is trying to shore up support in her home state before the primary. According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Trump has nearly a 35-point lead over Haley in South Carolina, with nearly 65 percent of support.
Voters are increasingly wary of America’s two unelectable candidates - Ironically, the only major political question the majority of Americans seem to agree on is that there is little appetite for the seemingly inevitable: A presidential election between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. And while two-thirds (67 percent) of Americans say that they are generally “tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new” according to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, the problems are deeper than that and speak to the significant impediment each candidate faces. Indeed, majorities of Americans say they would be “very” or “somewhat dissatisfied” with both Trump (58 percent) and Biden (56 percent) as the nominees, per AP-NORC Research Center polling. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the same poll shows just how unpopular both candidates are, with six in 10 (60 percent) Americans viewing Trump unfavorably, and a similar 54 percent having an unfavorable view of President Biden. As November’s election nears, it is highly unlikely that these feelings will drastically shift to either Biden or Trump’s decisive advantage, especially as non-political developments continue exposing each candidate’s flaws. To that end, special counsel Robert Hur’s scathing — and questionably appropriate — description of President Biden as a “sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” whose lapses “appear consistent with diminished faculties and faulty memory” was a clear shot across the bow of the incumbent. Moreover, it could not have come at a worse time for the Biden camp, coming just days after Biden mistook two living heads of state — President Emmanuel Macron of France and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel — for their predecessors — François Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl, respectively — both of whom have passed away. That Biden is susceptible to these types of gaffes is not new, but it should alarm Democrats that even before Hur’s report, roughly three-quarters (76 percent) of registered voters — including 81 percent of independents and even 54 percent of Democrats — had “major” or “moderate” concerns that Biden did not have the necessary mental or physical health to serve a second term, per NBC News polling. In response to Hur’s report and larger concerns over his age and memory, Biden will likely be forced to push back in ways that are not certain to be successful. Case in point: Thursday’s press conference, where Biden attempted to put Democrats’ fears to rest with a fiery performance, but probably exacerbated those fears by angrily lecturing the press, and once again confusing a world leader, this time referring to the president of Egypt as “the president of Mexico” in response to a question on the Middle East. Even before Hur’s bombshell, Biden told Democrats that “Trump and his MAGA friends” are “losers,” seemingly forgetting how Hillary Clinton’s “deplorable” comment ahead of the 2016 election haunted her by feeding the narrative that Democrats will openly disparage anyone who disagrees with their world view. Unfortunately for Democrats, it appears they have no better choice than Biden. It is clear that the party establishment does not trust Vice President Kamala Harris to step in and run, otherwise, they would have elevated her months ago and given her a chance to build out a proper campaign. Further, as it is incredibly unlikely that someone popular from outside the administration, such as Michelle Obama, would throw their hat in the ring, Democrats seemingly have no choice but to continue supporting the president, in hopes that voters will overlook his impediments, if for no other reason than intensely disliking Donald Trump.
Putin says ‘more predictable’ Biden a better choice for US than Trump - Russian President Vladimir Putin says he would rather see President Biden stay in office as opposed to former President Trump, describing the incumbent as “more predictable” than his GOP challenger.Asked by journalist Pavel Zarubin for his 2024 election preference, Putin said, “Biden. He has more experience, and he is more predictable too, an old school politician,” according to remarks provided by the Kremlin this week.“That said, we will work with any leader of the United States who has the trust of the American people,” he continued.Despite his preference for Biden, Putin did not stop short of criticizing the White House.“I believe that the current administration is pursuing what amounts to a harmful and erroneous policy. This is what I told President Biden back then,” Putin said, per the Kremlin.Trump, who regularly describes the autocratic Putin as “smart,” called the remarks “a great compliment” at a rally in South Carolina.“He just said that he would much rather have Joe Biden as president than Trump,” he said. “Now that’s a compliment. … And of course, he would say that.”“He doesn’t want to have me. He wants Biden because he’s going to be given everything he wants, including Ukraine,” Trump added.The Hill has reached out to the White House and Trump campaign for further comment.
West Virginia AG urges Harris to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Biden - West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) called on Vice President Harris to invoke the 25th Amendment against President Biden on Tuesday, claiming that the president is not physically able to perform the duties of the job.Morrisey argued Biden’s mental health is a serious concern after a 388-page special counsel report was released last week describing the president as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” Biden has aggressively fought back against that characterization.“President Biden’s cognitive decline is of great concern to Americans, especially during these times that our nation is facing crisis after crisis both here and abroad,” Morrisey wrote. “We need a president who is mentally fit.”The Republican attorney general said the report “paints a clear picture of a President who is not up for the job.”The report followed a yearlong probe into classified documents from Biden’s time as vice president that were found at his old office and his private home in Delaware.The 25th Amendment was passed by Congress in 1965 in order to clarify presidential succession following the assassination of former President Kennedy. It also included a section allowing the vice president and the Cabinet to remove a president from office if they are deemed physically incapable. The power has never been used, but was floated by anti-Trump critics following the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, including by former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who dismissed the solution as not quick enough.
Manchin mentions Romney, Portman when asked about potential White House running mates - Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) on Thursday floated Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) and former Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) as two possible running mates in response to a question about his his top choices for a hypothetical third-party ticket for the White House. In a conversation at the City Club of Cleveland, Manchin said he did not have any intention to run for office at this moment, but he did not rule out that prospect entirely. “So hypothetically, if I was picking my running mate, really who I would ask right now is Mitt Romney,” Manchin said. “Maybe Rob Portman,” Manchin quickly added. “Rob Portman would be right there, too. Rob’s a dear friend of mine. What a good man. What a good man.” Manchin, a self-described “conservative Democrat,” has bucked his party on several occasions in recent years and has been critical of both political parties and their leaders. He announced he would not seek reelection this year, following a sharp drop in his approval rating, sparking speculation about a possible third-party run for the White House. He also launched his “listening tour” at the start of the calendar year and has been speaking throughout the country — often at forums prospective presidential candidates are known to frequent. At the Thursday event, he was asked numerous times whether he would launch a hypothetical third-party bid. He mostly avoided answering directly but left the door open to a possible run. “Guys, listen, I’m not running for anything. I’m basically running to try to get people involved. Okay? So we’ll get, we’ll make sure of that right now, that’s today,” Manchin said. Manchin expressed skepticism about the likelihood of a successful third-party campaign. He looked to Super Tuesday as the date for which “everyone’s waiting, to see what happens on Super Tuesday.” “The third party,” Manchin said, “that’s a tough road. It’s never been done. Never been done. The system was set up not for that to be done.” “I think you’re going to have a Joe Biden and Donald Trump rematch if nothing changes,” he said. “Things could change, you know, you have Super Tuesday is going to be what, about a month away? And that’s a lifetime in politics. So a lot could be changed. We’ll see.”
NYT columnist makes case that Biden should not run again -- Erza Klein, a columnist and podcast host for The New York Times, called on President Biden to end his White House bid and go out as a “hero.”“I want to say this clearly: I like Biden. I think he’s been a good president. I think he is a good president. I don’t like having this conversation,” Klein said Friday in an episode of his podcast, “The Ezra Klein Show.”. “And I know a lot of liberals, a lot of Democrats are going to be furious at me for this show.”“I think Biden, as painful as this is, should find his way to stepping down as a hero,” he added later. “The people whom Biden listens to — Barack Obama, Chuck Schumer, Mike Donilon, Ron Klain, Nancy Pelosi, Anita Dunn — they need to get him to see this,” he continued. “Biden may come to see it himself.” Klein said the Democratic Party should want to help Biden to be “the bridge of the next generation,” making reference to what the president called himself during his 2020 campaign.
US Govt Is Hiding Documents That Incriminate Intel Community For Illegal Spying & Election Interference, Say Sources – Matt Taibbi explains the multi-part series, cowritten with Michael Shellenberger and Alex Gutentag, about the corrupt origins of the Trump-Russia investigation...(video) Part 2: U.S. Government Is Hiding Documents That Incriminate Intelligence Community For Illegal Spying And Election Interference, Say Sources by Michael Shellenberger, Matt Taibbi, and Alex Gutentag via Public substack,Former CIA Director Gina Haspel blocked the release of “binder” with evidence that may identify her role in the Trump-Russia collusion hoaxFBI Director Christopher Wray (left), former CIA Director Gina Haspel (center), and former Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats (right), testify at a Senate Intelligence Committee on January 29, 2019. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)Last December 15th, as Americans decorated trees, lit Menorahs, and prepared to tune out for winter holidays, CNN ran an extraordinary article titled, “The mystery of the missing binder: How a collection of raw Russian intelligence disappeared under Trump.”Co-authored by Natasha Bertrand, the gargantuan expose claimed a mysterious “binder” of “highly classified information related to Russian election interference” went “missing” in the chaotic waning days of Donald Trump’s presidency in January 2021, raising concerns that some of America’s most “closely guarded national security secrets… could be exposed.”CNN and its intelligence sources meant “exposure” in a bad way.Sources have told Public and Racket, however, that the secrets officials worry might be “exposed” are ones that would implicate them in widespread abuses of intelligence authority dating back to the 2015-2016 election season.
Special Counsel Casts Pre-Election Doubt On Biden 'Burisma Bribe' With Dramatic Airport Arrest --Last June, the leaked contents of a stonewalled FBI document, form FD-1023, alleging that President Joe Biden was paid $5 million by an executive of Ukrainian natural gas firm Burisma Holdings, where his son Hunter sat on the board, and also received an alleged $5 million. The form, dated June 30, 2020, was from a "highly credible" confidential human source (CHS) who had detailed multiple meetings and conversations they had with a top Burisma executive over the course of several years, beginning in 2015. The CHS had been working with the FBI as a regular, reliable source of information since 2010, and has been paid approximately $200,000 by the bureau. Now, as the 2024 election heats up, that source - Alexander Smirnov, 43, has been arrested and charged with lying about the bribes by special counsel David Weiss, who is investigating Hunter Biden. According to the NY Times, "The story Mr. Smirnov told investigators was part of a series of explosive and unsubstantiated claims by Republicans that the Bidens engaged in potentially criminal activity — allegations central to the party’s efforts to impeach the president." Smirnov faces a two-count indictment for making false statements and obstructing the government's long-running investigation into Hunter Biden. He faces a maximum penalty of 25 years in prison. Smirnov was arrested in Las Vegas on Wednesday after disembarking from an international flight, and was expected to appear on Thursday before a federal judge. According to the indictment, Smirnov lied when he said that Hunter Biden promised to protect Burisma "through his dad, from all kinds of problems," and was only in contact with Burisma executives in 2017, after Biden left office. Smirnov is accused of exaggerating his "routine and unextraordinary business contacts with Burisma" into "bribery allegations" against Joe Biden. Which raises the question - if Smirnov told the FBI about the alleged bribery in confidence - and had no expectation of a 'leaked' FD-1023 becoming central to Republican investigations, what did he have to gain from lying? And why charge him with lying now?
Supreme Court to confront 14th Amendment disqualification — and not just Trump’s | Trump isn’t the only public official whose disqualification under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection ban has landed at the Supreme Court. Just days after the justices heard oral arguments in Trump’s historic case Thursday, they are scheduled this week to consider taking up another official’s disqualification: a New Mexico county commissioner who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. Before the Trump challenges gained steam, a state judge booted from office Couy Griffin, who had been found guilty of entering a restricted area during the riot. Griffin, the founder of Cowboys for Trump, is now urging the justices to hear his appeal, even as they begin writing their opinion in Trump’s case. Griffin’s petition is scheduled to be discussed at the justices’ closed-door conference Friday. “At this point about everything happening with Trump legally at the top is happening to me here at the bottom. Many things are in tandem. And most greatly compliment each other,” Griffin wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, shortly after Thursday’s arguments in Trump’s case, which was born out of a challenge in Colorado. Originally designed to keep ex-Confederates from returning to power, the Civil War-era provision bars people who took an oath to support the Constitution and then engaged in insurrection from returning to office. After falling dormant for decades, several public officials — though none more than Trump — began facing efforts after the Capitol attack to block them from office under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection clause. Most have been unsuccessful. A group of voters challenged Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.)’s 2022 House candidacy, ending with the Georgia Supreme Court declining to review a decision tossing the case. One advocacy group mounted a challenge to Arizona Republican Reps. Paul Gosar and Andy Biggs’s 2022 candidacies, but a judge tossed the case. Another man’s challenge to Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-Pa.) 2024 candidacy is ongoing. Trump, meanwhile, has faced dozens of lawsuits. Only two states — Colorado and Maine — kicked Trump off their Republican primary ballots, but even those decisions haven’t yet taken effect. Both are on hold pending the Supreme Court’s ruling.
Supreme Court gives Jack Smith one week to respond to Trump on immunity -- The Supreme Court on Tuesday gave special counsel Jack Smith one week to respond to former President Trump’s request to keep his federal Jan. 6 trial on hold as he appeals his immunity claims. In a brief order, the high court ordered Smith to respond by Tuesday, Feb. 20, not a particularly speedy schedule. Trump filed an emergency motion Monday urging the justices to block a lower ruling that he doesn’t have presidential immunity from the indictment, an argument that has enabled Trump to delay his trial date as the appeals process proceeds. The Supreme Court’s forthcoming decision on Trump’s motion is poised to have outsized influence on whether the former president’s trial will take place before this year’s elections. The trial was originally scheduled for March 4 but was shelved as Trump appealed the immunity issue. Smith has aimed to take Trump to trial quickly to avoid the possibility of Trump first returning to the White House and then pardoning himself or ordering his Justice Department to drop the case. Trump's lawyers are pressing to have Smith's team held in contempt. The Republican former president's lawyers said Thursday, Jan. 4, 2024, prosecutors have taken steps to advance the 2020 election interference case against him in violation of a judge's order that put the case on hold. By next Tuesday, the special counsel will now have to respond to Trump’s latest tactic: requesting his trial be kept on hold until he can ask the full District of Columbia Circuit Court of Appeals to review his immunity claims, and then, if needed, the Supreme Court. The timeline for Smith’s response isn’t fast compared to how the Supreme Court has handled some recent emergency applications, however, a signal the justices aren’t viewing Trump’s case with particular urgency. Last month, when an anti-affirmative action group challenged the U.S. Military Academy at West Point’s race-conscious admissions policies on the Supreme Court’s emergency docket, the court ordered the school to respond within four days. Weeks earlier, the court in an emergency case involving Michigan’s state legislative maps set the response to be due six days after the application was originally filed.
Cobb says Cannon has ‘no intention’ of letting Trump documents case go to trial before election -Former White House attorney Ty Cobb said Monday that he thinks U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon has “no intention” of letting the classified documents case in Florida take place before the presidential election in 2024. In an interview on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront,” the former Trump White House legal official criticized the judge overseeing one of the two cases brought by special counsel Jack Smith, whose team indicted the former president on 37 criminal counts related to his alleged willful retention of national defense information, obstruction of justice and conspiracy. “I think that this judge has no intention of allowing this case to be tried before the election, and, in any event, I think her ruling last week was clear error, as Jack Smith has highlighted in the motion to reconsider,” Cobb said. Last week, Smith appealed Cannon’s ruling that would allow Trump’s legal team to publicly disclose witness identities and their testimony to the court docket, potentially opening them up to harassment. The Justice Department argued in a motion to reconsider that Cannon erred in her legal rationale for allowing Trump’s legal team to do so, a decision they say risks exposing some two dozen witnesses to harassment, as she requires no redactions. Cobb was unsure how Cannon would proceed but said he would not be surprised if Smith’s team sought her removal if she does not reconsider her ruling. “I think if she doesn’t reconsider or if she reconsiders and stays the course on that ruling, that the special counsel will mandamus her and the 11th Circuit will reverse her quickly and perhaps even remove her,” he said. “Certainly if she grants access to classified documents that the government doesn’t believe is appropriate under the Classified Procedures Act, the government has a right to an interlocutory appeal to go straight to the 11th Circuit and seek relief on that and also likely to seek her removal.”
Trump’s NY hush money case faces critical moment: What to expect -Former President Trump’s hush money prosecution faces a critical moment Thursday as a judge mulls whether the case will move forward and if Trump’s first criminal trial will take place next month. Trump is expected to attend the hearing in New York alongside his lawyers, who will argue the indictment must be tossed because the charges are defective and the former president was selectively prosecuted. The hearing marks a significant milestone for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) case, the first indictment of a former president, which charges Trump with 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Trump pleaded not guilty. Prosecutors accuse Trump of improperly recording reimbursements to his then-fixer, Michael Cohen, who had paid off women including adult film star Stormy Daniels to keep quiet about affairs they allegedly had with the real estate mogul. Trump denies the affairs. With the trial now potentially becoming Trump’s first of his criminal cases, here’s what to know ahead of Thursday’s hearing: Trump to show up in court Trump is expected to continue his recent streak of showing up to his court appearances even amid a stretch of early presidential nominating contests. Despite his busy court calendar, he’s pulled out decisive wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. It’s Trump’s second day in court this week after he attended a closed-door hearing in his classified documents criminal case Monday. The former president has effectively transformed his court appearances into campaign stops, often making outbursts in the courtroom that have sucked up the oxygen as he stares down various criminal charges and civil lawsuits. No audio or video will be recorded of Thursday’s hearing, but the court will still allow photographers to go inside the courtroom for a few minutes just before the proceeding kicks off. And Trump does still have an opportunity to fight in the court of public opinion while inside. Media outlets will set up video cameras in the hallway outside the courtroom, as they did for Trump’s recent civil fraud trial where he often made impromptu remarks. But in that trial, Trump and his counsel were under a gag order that restricted them from publicly talking about court staff.
Trump permits Jan. 6-related lawsuits against him to advance — for now - Donald Trump is passing up the chance to add a fourth case to a trio of Trump-related appeals already stacked up at the Supreme Court. Trump elected not to ask the justices to reverse a federal appeals court ruling issued in December rejecting his claim that presidents have absolute immunity from being sued for actions taken while they are in office. That means at least three lawsuits brought against him in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol can advance to the next phase — a period of limited evidence-gathering related to Trump’s activities on Jan. 6, 2021 and whether they were official or political in nature. The lawsuits — brought by members of Congress and police officers scarred by the attack — have been pending since 2021 but delayed amid Trump’s bid for the courts to declare him immune from lawsuits related to his actions as president. For now, that means a Washington, D.C., appeals court ruling that found Trump could be sued for his role in stoking the violence on Jan. 6 will stand. The unanimous ruling of the three-judge panel, which included a Trump-nominated judge, concluded that Trump’s remarks to supporters on Jan. 6 appeared to be delivered in his capacity as a candidate for reelection — not in his official capacity as president. But the decision from the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals did not totally slam the door on Trump attempting to prove that the event was official. Under an agreement with the plaintiffs in those cases, Trump had a Thursday deadline to halt the effect of the appeals court decision by filing an appeal with the Supreme Court. None was filed as of Thursday evening, and his aides indicated none was expected. But Trump’s allies say he is leaving the door open to reviving a challenge to the ruling later in the process. He could try another appeal after the next round of fact-finding is complete, and the trial judge issues another ruling on whether the cases can proceed.
Judge Rules Former Trump Advisor Peter Navarro Will Remain In Prison While He Appeals Contempt Conviction - A federal judge has rejected a request by former Trump White House adviser Peter Navarro to be allowed to stay out of prison while he appeals a conviction for contempt of Congress. Mr. Navarro was charged with contempt of Congress after defying a pair of subpoenas from the now-disbanded House committee that investigated the breach of the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, which was controlled at the time by Democrats. He was found guilty on two counts of contempt of Congress and sentenced last month to serve concurrent four-month prison terms. The former adviser argued throughout the subpoena process, at trial, and again in his appeal that he had a good faith belief that testifying before Congress would have conflicted with President Donald Trump’s executive privilege. On Thursday, Judge Ahmit Meta of the U.S. District Court for Washington D.C. ruled that there is no “substantial question of law” for which Mr. Navarro warrants remaining out of prison. Mr. Navarro’s legal team has argued that the questions he raised about executive privilege meet the major questions doctrine of legal interpretation. This doctrine states that courts should rely on relevant executive branch agencies to resolve significant regulatory policy questions. Judge Mehta had rejected Mr. Navarro’s privilege claims earlier in the case, stating that during his trial, Mr. Navarro’s team never presented evidence that President Trump asserted a privilege claim over his testimony. Mr. Navarro had claimed President Trump had asserted his privilege verbally in a February 2022 phone call, but Judge Mehta ruled that he had “not carried his burden of establishing a formal claim of privilege from President Trump.”
Fani Willis takes the stand as she fights to stay on Trump criminal case – The lead prosecutor in the Georgia case against Donald Trump took the witness stand Thursday and lashed out at those seeking to remove her from one of the most significant criminal cases in American history. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis grew increasingly combative with defense attorneys who accused her of having a conflict of interest stemming from her romantic relationship with Nathan Wade, a special prosecutor she hired to help run the case. Attorneys for Trump and several other defendants say Willis improperly benefited from the case because Wade allegedly used income from his work on the case to pay for numerous vacations that he took with Willis to places like Aruba and Belize. “You’re confused,” Willis told Ashleigh Merchant, an attorney for one of Trump’s co-defendants, repeatedly accusing her of “lying” in court documents. “You think I’m on trial. These people are on trial for trying to steal an election in 2020. I’m not on trial, no matter how hard you try to put me on trial.” It was an extraordinary sight during an acrimonious daylong hearing: The top prosecutor in a historic case against a former president for efforts to subvert the 2020 presidential election was the one on the witness stand, parrying deeply invasive questions about her personal life. Her choice to testify was even more remarkable because the judge in the case, Scott McAfee, may not have required it at all. Willis had initially objected to efforts to compel her testimony and had urged McAfee to scuttle a subpoena. But as one of her deputies was objecting Thursday to her being forced to testify, Willis entered the courtroom and said she wanted to take the stand after all. Willis’ decision underscored the stakes of the fight: If McAfee removes her from the prosecution, her entire office would be disqualified, causing major disruption to the case if not derailing it altogether. The hearing ended Thursday in the middle of Willis’ testimony. She will return to the stand Friday morning. Her testimony careened between indignantly defending her prosecution of Trump and many of his allies, accusing her adversaries of working “contrary to democracy,” and sharing deeply personal — sometimes unsolicited — details about her relationship history, her vacations and her regular use of cash for major expenses. Willis talked about how she “did 50 big” — a reference to her significant travels in 2021, the year she turned 50 — her preference for Grey Goose vodka over wine, and her father’s lifelong urging that she stash thousands of dollars in cash in her home at all times. Willis described reimbursing Wade in cash for some of their travel expenses. “I don’t do my friends like that,” she said. “If you tell me it’s a G, then you’re going to get $1,000 back.” She also described breaking up with Wade in August 2023, the same month she secured the grand jury racketeering indictment against Trump and 18 co-defendants. She said they disagreed in part over his views about women. “He told me one time: ‘The only thing a woman can do for me is make me a sandwich,’” Willis recalled. Willis’ testimony featured a series of prickly exchanges. “Don’t get cute with me,” she said to Merchant at one point. “You don’t have to yell at me,” Willis told Trump lawyer Steve Sadow as he questioned her about her activities. “Please do not yell at me.” Defense attorneys clearly grew frustrated with the district attorney’s off-the-cuff commentary, prompting McAfee to warn her twice that he would strike portions of her testimony if she continued to stray far afield from the attorneys’ questions. Willis’ testimony followed several hours on the witness stand by Wade, who entered a contract with Willis’ office in November 2021 to help run the Trump probe as a special prosecutor. Wade faced a barrage of questions about the timeline of his romantic relationship with Willis and how the pair financed vacations they took in 2022 and 2023.
D.A. Spars With Lawyers Seeking Her Removal From Trump Case - The New York Times - It was one of the most striking developments yet in the Georgia election interference case against former President Donald J. Trump and his allies: The two lead prosecutors took the witness stand Thursday in a daylong hearing, with defense attorneys grilling them about their personal lives. The defense is arguing that Fani Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, and her office should be disqualified and removed from the prosecution, accusing her of benefiting financially from a relationship with the lead prosecutor that she hired to manage the case, Nathan Wade. If the judge removes them from the case, it would delay and potentially derail a proceeding that has major implications for the 2024 presidential election. In some of the sharpest questioning of the day, defense lawyers pressed Mr. Wade on his finances, attempting to raise doubt about his assertions that Ms. Willis had repaid him with cash for her share of expensive trips while they were dating, including to Belize, Aruba, Tennessee and California. Mr. Wade called Ms. Willis an “independent strong woman” who insisted that “she is going to pay her own way.” Regarding a trip to California, he said, “everything we did when we got into Napa, she paid for.” But Mr. Wade also said she typically reimbursed him in cash, so there were no receipts availableIt’s interesting that we’re here about this money. Mr. Wade is used to women that, as he told me one time, the only thing a woman can do for him is make him a sandwich. We would have brutal arguments about the fact that I am your equal. I don’t need anything from a man. A man is not a plan. A man is a companion. And so there was tension always in our relationship, which is why I would give him his money back. I don’t need anybody to foot my bills. The only man who’s ever foot my bills completely is my daddy. Ms. Willis forcefully rebutted suggestions that she had not paid her share of the trips, saying that she keeps thousands of dollars in cash secured at her home. “For many many years, I’ve kept money in my house,” she said. A former friend challenged the timeline of the relationship. So you had a chance to see them interact together on a personal level? Yes. And so from everything that you saw, heard, witnessed, it’s your understanding that they were in a romantic relationship beginning in 2019? Yes. You have no doubt that their romantic relationship was in effect from 2019 until the last time you spoke with her? No doubt. O.K. And that’s based on your personal observations and speaking with them and seeing them together and things like that?. Yes.Defense attorneys have said that the relationship between the two prosecutors started before Mr. Wade was hired in November 2021. Ms. Willis and Mr. Wade have disputed that, saying the relationship started in early 2022.Their timeline was disputed Thursday by testimony from a former friend of Ms. Willis, Robin Bryant-Yeartie, who said she had “no doubt” that the two had started a romantic relationship earlier than they have claimed.But Mr. Wade, who testified for several hours, stood firm in the assertion that the relationship began only after he was hired. He also revealed that it had ended in summer 2023. Fani Willis pushed back hard at the defense attorneys. Did Mr Wade ever visit you at a place that you resides? He had never been to my home in South Fulton. 2020 was before I knew that a phone call was going to be made. And I going to have to abandon my home. As a result thereof, he never visited, lived at, came to or has seen South Fulton. You qualify that with your home in South Fulton. That’s where I lived in 2020. in 2020 did he ever visit you at a place that you resided? O.K I don’t understand. You’re going to have to give me that. In 2020, I lived in South Fulton. That’s the only place I lived in South Fulton. That’s before I had to abandon my home, judge. And at my home in South Fulton, miss. I never. He never came there. O.K., so if you don’t come someplace, you can’t live there. Ms. Willis, I’m going to have to caution you. That’s going to be my first time. I have to caution, we have to listen to the questions as asked. And if this happens again and again, I’m going to have no choice but to strike your testimony.The sparring between Ms. Willis and the defense lawyers grew so tense at various points that the presiding judge, Scott McAfee, warned the parties several times to limit their answers in order to preserve decorum.Ms. Willis angrily accused defense lawyers of spreading lies about her and Mr. Wade.“I’m not on trial, no matter how hard you try to put me on trial,” she told a defense attorney, Ashleigh Merchant, at one point. It is the defendants, she said, who are on trial for trying to steal an election.A disqualification would be a major roadblock in the Trump prosecution.If Judge McAfee determines that Ms. Willis has a conflict of interest, and that it merits disqualification, the case would then be reassigned to another Georgia prosecutor, who would have the ability to continue with the case exactly as it is, make major changes — such as adding or dropping charges or defendants — or to even drop the case altogether.It would be up to a state entity called the Prosecuting Attorneys’ Council of Georgia to find someone else to take up the case. The council’s executive director, Pete Skandalakis, has been criticized for moving slowly in the effort to find a prosecutor to consider whether Georgia’s lieutenant governor, Burt Jones, should also face charges related to the Trump case.But the case against Mr. Trump and the other defendants is a different circumstance, since a grand jury has already handed down charges. Mr. Trump and 18 of his allies were charged last August with racketeering in connection with a plot to subvert the 2020 presidential election results. Four of the defendants have already pleaded guilty. Legal experts were skeptical about a conflict of interest, but said the hearing did not help the prosecutors.Several legal experts who observed Thursday’s hearing in the Georgia case against Donald J. Trump and his allies were doubtful that the defense’s questioning and witness testimonies demonstrated a clear conflict of interest on the issue of whether the Fulton County district attorney, Fani T. Willis, and the special prosecutor, Nathan J. Wade, benefited financially from their relationship and the prosecution.But the experts added that the day’s proceedings nonetheless did not help the prosecutors overall.
Fulton County prosecutors decline to call Fani Willis to return for questioning - CBS News -Fulton County prosecutors declined to call District Attorney Fani Willis to the witness stand for additional questioning Friday, after she forcefully defended herself and accused defense attorneys of lying as part of a bid to disqualify her and her office from prosecuting the Georgia election interference case against former President Donald Trump.Lawyers representing Trump and several of his co-defendants and prosecutors gathered for the second day of testimony in an evidentiary hearing, during which witnesses including John Clifford Floyd III, Willis' father, and Terrence Bradley, Wade's former law partner and divorce attorney, answered questions about the relationship between Wade and Willis.The hearing, which lasted less than seven hours, stemmed from defense attorneys' allegations that Willis engaged in an improper relationship with Wade, whom she hired to work on the racketeering case against Trump, and financially benefited from it. Willis testified for roughly two hours Thursday, during which she fiercely pushed back on the accusations and accused the defense lawyers of lying.A lawyer for Michael Roman, a former Trump campaign official, first raised the allegations about Willis and Wade last month and is seeking to have prosecutors involved in the case disqualified and the indictment dismissed. Trump and his allies are accused of orchestrating a scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. They have pleaded not guilty to all charges.It's unclear when McAfee will make a decision on Roman's efforts to kick Willis and her office off the case and have the charges tossed out, though additional proceedings are expected.Both Wade and Willis testified Thursday, providing details about the origins of their relationship, trips they took together, their finances and other aspects of their relationship. They confirmed in a court filing earlier this month that they began a romantic relationship in early 2022, months after Willis appointed Wade special prosecutor to work on the sprawling racketeering case involving Trump. But the district attorney has called the allegations "salacious" and rejected the claims that she benefited financially from the relationship."You've been intrusive into people's personal lives," Willis told Ashleigh Merchant, who is representing Roman. "You're confused. You think I'm on trial. These people are on trial for trying to steal an election in 2020. I'm not on trial, no matter how hard you try to put me on trial. I object to you getting any personal records of mine."She called implications made by Merchant in court filings about the start of her relationship with Wade "highly offensive" and said her interests were "contrary to democracy."Prosecutors in her office still planned to call at least three witnesses to answer questions Friday, including her father.
Georgia hearing over efforts to disqualify District Attorney Fani Willis concludes. Here's what to expect next - The evidentiary hearing in Georgia over whether to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis has concluded for the time being, a judge said Friday. The attorneys will likely have to return in the next few weeks to discuss outstanding issues, including whether Nathan Wade, the special prosecutor Willis hired to lead the case, can still assert attorney-client privilege over some testimony and evidence from his former law partner and divorce attorney, Terrence Bradley. Both defense attorneys and prosecutors also will have the opportunity to file additional legal briefs as they see fit. The evidentiary hearing included a tumultuous two days of testimony, including from Willis herself. Before the hearing concluded, the district attorney’s office sought to undermine Bradley’s credibility, including by raising an allegation of sexual assault by an employee of his former law firm. Bradley denied the allegation. Bradley testified earlier Friday that he left the firm following a “disagreement,” but said the details of the disagreement were privileged. During cross examination, Bradley was pressed on whether he left because of a disagreement over a sexual assault allegation made against him. “That is not correct,” Bradley said, but confirmed that he was accused of sexually assaulting a member of the firm. The judge presiding over the case, Scott McAfee, questioned whether Bradley had been properly interpreting the privilege he had previously asserted over communications with Wade, given his testimony on the allegation.
Trump ordered to pay over $350M for business fraud - — The judge overseeing Donald Trump’s civil fraud trial issued him a $354.8 million penalty Friday and barred him from running a business in New York for three years, finding that for years Trump orchestrated massive business fraud by falsely inflating his net worth to obtain favorable rates from banks and insurers.The verdict, laid out in a 92-page ruling, strikes at the heart of an aspect of Trump’s identity that he harnessed in his 2016 presidential run: his personal wealth and his success as a businessman.Trump and the other defendants in the case showed a “complete lack of contrition and remorse” that “borders on pathological,” Justice Arthur Engoron wrote.The penalty caps a three-month trial in a lawsuit brought by New York Attorney General Tish James. It comes just weeks after a federal jury in a separate case ordered Trump to pay $83.3 million in damages to the writer E. Jean Carroll over defamatory statements he made while president in response to her rape accusation.And combined with the $5 million penalty Trump was ordered to pay to Carroll in a separate trial last year, it means the frontrunner in the Republican presidential primary now owes $443.1 million in judgments. (Trump is appealing the earlier Carroll verdict, and he has vowed to appeal the verdicts in both the more recent Carroll trial and the civil fraud trial.)It’s not clear if Trump has enough cash on hand to pay those penalties without selling any assets.In addition to the penalties aimed at Trump himself, Engoron imposed measures that may significantly alter the operations of the Trump’s family business, the Trump Organization. Engoron banned Trump’s two adult sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., who are executive vice presidents of the company, from running New York companies for two years and fined them more than $4 million each. And he ordered a court-appointed monitor to continue overseeing the company’s operations for another three years.Engoron also fined former Trump Organization executive Allen Weisselberg $1 million.A lawyer for Trump, Chris Kise, said the former president plans to appeal the verdict, calling the decision a “tyrannical abuse of power.”“The Court today ignored the law, ignored the facts, and simply signed off on the Attorney General’s manifestly unjust political crusade against the front-running candidate for President of the United States,” Kise said in a statement.In a pretrial ruling last fall, Engoron found that Trump systematically inflated his assets on financial statements, so the trial focused largely on whether those fraudulent statements were used as a basis for banks like Deutsche Bank to give Trump preferential terms on loans that he wouldn’t have received if his net worth had been lower.Because it was a bench trial, meaning there was no jury, Engoron alone decided the verdict and the scope of the penalties. James had asked the judge to issue a $370 million penalty.
Eric Trump slams ‘horribly sad’ fraud ruling: ‘This is not the state that we grew up in’ - --Eric Trump slammed the nearly $355 million fine levied on his father, former President Trump, by New York Judge Arthur Engoron Friday in the civil fraud trial, calling it “horribly sad.”“My father built a skyline of New York City. And this is the thanks he gets for doing absolutely nothing wrong, not a dollar of financial loss? The exact opposite, hundreds of millions of dollars in financial gain,” the younger Trump said Friday evening on Fox News’s “The Ingraham Angle.”“Every single witness testified we have nothing to do with this. They went in, witness after witness, this is not what they did in the company. It didn’t matter to this guy. You know, we were trophies on a wall for this guy,” he added. “This is the state of New York.”Eric Trump’s rebuke of the Empire State comes hours after the former president was ordered to pay more than $355 million for conspiring to inflate and deflate his net worth to receive tax and insurance benefits. Engoron had already found Trump, and his top executives — including Eric Trump and his oldest son Donald Trump Jr., who serve as executive vice presidents of the Trump Organization — liable for fraud before the months-long trial began.The verdict is less than the $370 million that Attorney General Letitia James (D) requested. However, once interest is applied, the office said the fine could reach about $450 million.Both of Trump’s adult sons were ordered to pay more than $4 million each and barred from serving in top business roles in the state for up to two years. The former president was banned for three years.Eric Trump railed against the state’s leadership, echoing his father’s claim that the lawsuit was political from the start.“I caution anybody. I caution anybody even thinking about moving to New York to just be careful. This is not the state that my father grew up in. This is not the state that we grew up in,” he told guest host Jeanine Pirro. “This is the demise of a politically weaponized system. And it’s horribly sad.”“New York is a hopeless place at this point. It’s so sad. This judge ruled against my father before we even went to trial. He ruled against our entire family. It was a setup from the very beginning,” he added. “This was never supposed to be in that court. It was supposed to be in the commercial division. They would never allow it to get there.”The younger Trump also vowed to appeal the decision, calling it “egregious.”
Judge pulls back from dissolving Trump’s businesses in fraud ruling -The staggering civil fraud ruling against President Trump did hand him one key victory Friday: The New York judge will no longer dissolve the former president’s businesses. Judge Arthur Engoron’s highly anticipated decision, issued Friday, fined Trump more than $350 million and ordered his adult sons to pay millions as well, also banning them from running companies in New York for a few years. But it also walked back a key ruling Engoron made in September. Prior to the 11-week bench trial, Engoron had said New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) had already proven the core of her sprawling fraud case against the former president, ordering Trump’s New York business certificates be dissolved. It led to a swarm of questions over whether it meant Trump would lose control of Trump Tower and his other famed properties. But in his decision Friday, Engoron walked it back. He ordered that his September decision be modified “solely to the extent of vacating the directive to cancel defendants’ business certificates.” It’s a major reversal after Engoron effectively stripped Trump of his ability to continue as a real estate mogul in New York, recommending at the time that independent receivers begin managing the “dissolution of the canceled LLCs.” On Friday, however, Engoron noted that dissolving Trump’s companies en masse “could implicate serious economic concerns.” Despite the twist, however, Engoron’s ruling overall still delivers a striking blow to the former president’s business empire and leaves the door open that an independent monitor could still cancel some of the former president’s business certificates. Beyond the hundreds of millions in fines, the judge’s decision bans Trump from serving as an officer or director of any New York corporation for three years, and his two adult sons are banned for two years. Trump and his businesses are also prohibited for three years from applying for loans from any institution registered with the state. Engoron further ordered the appointment of an independent director of compliance at the Trump Organization to ensure compliance with financial reporting obligations, and an independent monitor will continue to oversee Trump’s business empire.
Cohen after Trump fraud verdict: His only out from fines, incarceration is winning the election --Michael Cohen, who once served as former President Trump’s fixer, said the only way for his ex-boss to evade fines and incarceration is to win the 2024 presidential election in November.“Donald’s theory right now, the only out for him, both financially, as well as criminally, regarding incarceration, is if he wins the election,” Cohen said Friday on MSNBC’s “Deadline: White House.”“He’s not running for the presidency of the United States to do good for the United States, he wants to do – and the only way he can do good – for himself, is to win the presidency,” Cohen continued. “This is all about running for the purpose of saving himself.His comments come after Trump was ordered by Judge Arthur Engoron to pay nearly $355 million in penalties, after being found liable for fraud last September. The verdict capped a months-long civil fraud trial, after New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) sued Trump and his business for deflating and inflating assets in order to obtain tax and insurance benefits.The ruling also bars him from doing business in the Empire State for three years.When asked if Trump would be able to afford to pay the fines, Cohen didn’t seem optimistic.“This is a staggering amount of money for virtually anybody,” he said in Friday. “There’s maybe a handful of people in the country who can write a check for half a billion dollars. Donald is not one of them.”He added that the ban would be a “big problem” for the former president, agreeing with the host that “he’s stuck.”
Here's where all the cases against Trump stand as he campaigns for a return to the White House (AP) — From allegations of plotting to overturn a lost election to illegally stowing classified documents at his Florida estate, former President Donald Trump faces four criminal indictments in four different cities as he vies to reclaim the White House. The cases, totaling 91 felony counts, are winding through the courts at different speeds. Some might not reach trial this year, while one is set to begin in a matter of weeks. Special counsel Jack Smith has been leading two federal probes related to Trump, both of which have resulted in charges against the former president. The first charges to result from those investigations came in June when Trump was indicted for mishandling top secret documents at his Florida estate. The indictment alleges that Trump repeatedly enlisted aides and lawyers to help him hide records demanded by investigators and cavalierly showed off a Pentagon “plan of attack” and classified map.A superseding indictment issued in July added charges accusing Trump of asking for surveillance footage at his Mar-a-Lago estate to be deleted after FBI and Justice Department investigators visited in June 2022 to collect classified documents he took with him after leaving the White House. The new indictment also charges him with illegally holding onto a document he’s alleged to have shown off to visitors in New Jersey. In all, Trump faces 40 felony charges in the classified documents case. The most serious charge carries a penalty of up to 20 years in prison.Smith’s second case against Trump was unveiled in August when the former president was indicted in Washington on felony charges for working to overturn the results of the 2020 election in the run-up to the violent riot by his supporters at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.The four-count indictment includes charges of conspiracy to defraud the United States government and conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding: the congressional certification of Joe Biden’s victory. It says that Trump repeatedly told supporters and others that he had won the election, despite knowing that was false, and how he tried to persuade state officials, then-Vice President Mike Pence and finally Congress to overturn the legitimate results.After a weekslong campaign of lies about the election results, prosecutors allege, Trump sought to exploit the violence at the Capitol by pointing to it as a reason to further delay the counting of votes that sealed his defeat. In their charging documents, prosecutors referenced a half-dozen unindicted co-conspirators, including lawyers inside and outside of government who they said had worked with Trump to undo the election results and advanced legally dubious schemes to enlist slates of fake electors in battleground states won by Biden.The Trump campaign called the charges “fake” and asked why it took two and a half years to bring them. He has pleaded not guilty.The case had been set for trial on March 4 in federal court in Washington. But that date was canceled amid an appeal by Trump on the legally untested question of whether a former president is immune from prosecution for official acts taken in the White House. Trump’s lawyers have asked the Supreme Court to intervene, but it’s not clear if the justices will.Trump became the first former U.S. president in history to face criminal charges when he was indicted in New York in March on state charges stemming from hush money payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign to bury allegations of extramarital sexual encounters.That case is set to be first to proceed to trial, with a judge setting jury selection for March 25.Trump has already pleaded not guilty to 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. Each count is punishable by up to four years in prison, though it’s not clear if a judge would impose any prison time if Trump were convicted.The counts are linked to a series of checks that were written to his lawyer Michael Cohen to reimburse him for his role in paying off porn actor Stormy Daniels, who alleged a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, not long after Melania Trump gave birth to son Barron. Those payments were recorded in various internal company documents as being for a legal retainer that prosecutors say didn’t exist.Trump is charged alongside 18 other people — including former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows — with violating the state’s anti-racketeering law by scheming to illegally overturn his 2020 election loss.The indictment, handed up in August, accuses Trump or his allies of suggesting Georgia’s Republican secretary of state could “find” enough votes for him to win the battleground state; of harassing an election worker who faced false claims of fraud; an, attempting to persuade Georgia lawmakers to ignore the will of voters and appoint a new slate of Electoral College electors favorable to Trump.In the months since, several of the defendants, including lawyers Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro, have pleaded guilty.A trial date for Trump and the others has not yet been set, and the case in recent weeks has been consumed by revelations of a personal relationship between Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, whose office brought the case, and an outside prosecutor she hired.Beyond the criminal cases, Trump has also been the subject of a civil proceeding in New York City. The state’s attorney general, Letitia James, argued that Trump and his companies engaged in a yearslong scheme to dupe banks and others with financial statements that inflated his wealth.A judge has ordered Trump and his companies to pay $355 million as a penalty in the case. Trump won’t have to pay out the money immediately as an appeals process plays out, but the verdict still is a stunning setback for the former president.If he’s ultimately forced to pay, the magnitude of the penalty, on top of earlier judgments, could dramatically diminish his financial resources. And it undermines the image of a successful businessman that he’s carefully tailored to power his unlikely rise from a reality television star to a onetime — and perhaps future — president.That ruling comes on top of the $83.3 million Trump was ordered to pay to E. Jean Carroll in January for his continued social media attacks against the longtime advice columnist over her claims that he sexually assaulted her in a Manhattan department store. He was already the subject of a $5 million sexual assault and defamation verdict last year from another jury in the case.
Jamie Dimon Is Desperate to Pin the Jeffrey Epstein Scandal on Jes Staley; Bloomberg News Is Carrying His Water – Again -- --By Pam and Russ Martens - After hurling salacious allegations for months against Jes Staley in a federal lawsuit JPMorgan Chase had brought against its former executive, the bank decided last September to quietly settle the case without disclosing the terms.The bank sued Staley after it had been sued by victims of sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein and after it had been sued in a separate lawsuit by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands, where Epstein owned a private island compound that was a frequent venue of Epstein’s sex trafficking of minors. Lawyers for the U.S. Virgin Islands charged that JPMorgan Chase had “actively participated in Epstein’s sex-trafficking venture from 2006 until 2019.” (Both cases were settled last year by the bank, with it paying a whopping $290 million to the victims and $75 million to the U.S. Virgin Islands.) The bank’s lawsuit against Staley appeared to be a damage control effort to redirect the media’s attention to Staley and away from the man he reported to – Jamie Dimon, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase who has survived a breathtaking array of criminal charges against the bank while he has sat at its helm. (See JPMorgan’s Board Made Jamie Dimon a Billionaire as the Bank Rigged Markets, Laundered Money, and Admitted to Five Felony Counts.)While evidence submitted to the court showed Staley was deeply involved with Epstein, the evidence is also overwhelming that more than a dozen other bank personnel, including top executives, facilitated Epstein’s ability to keep his sex trafficking of minors’ scheme alive.A Memorandum of Law filed by the U.S. Virgin Islands made the following points:“Even if participation requires active engagement…there is no genuine dispute that JPMorgan actively participated in Epstein’s sex-trafficking venture from 2006 until 2019. The Court found allegations that the Bank allowed Epstein to use its accounts to send dozens of payments to then-known co-conspirators [redacted] provided excessive and unusual amounts of cash to Epstein; and structured cash withdrawals so that those withdrawals would not appear suspicious ‘went well beyond merely providing their usual [banking] services to Jeffrey Epstein and his affiliated entities’ and were sufficient to allege active engagement.”The U.S. Virgin Islands alerted the court to the unfathomable sums of hard cash that Epstein was able to take from the accounts he maintained at JPMorgan Chase without the bank filing the legally mandated Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). The U.S. Virgin Islands tallied up the hard cash dispersals as follows:“Between September 2003 and November 2013, or approximately ten years, JPMorgan handled more than $5 million in outgoing cash transactions for Epstein — ignoring its own policy discouraging large cash withdrawals….”The U.S. Virgin Islands’ attorneys cite to internal emails at JPMorgan Chase showing that employees at the bank were aware of Epstein’s “[c]ash withdrawals … made in amounts for $40,000 to $80,000 several times a month” while also being aware that Epstein paid his underage sexual assault victims in cash.On August 25 of last year, JPMorgan Chase filed a document with the court as part of a discovery demand showing that, in addition to Staley, 14 of its executives, private bankers and other staff had made visits to Epstein’s private residences. One of those employees, Justin Nelson, visited Epstein’s residences more times than Staley. Nelson was at Epstein’s Manhattan mansion – a key location of the sex trafficking operation – 12 times and one time at Epstein’s Zorro Ranch in New Mexico – an additional location of the sex trafficking ring. That’s a total of 13 visits to the residence of a sex trafficker. Staley’s visits to Epstein’s residences tally up to 11, according to JPMorgan’s chart. (See pages 3, 4 and 5 at this link.) Eight of Nelson’s visits to Epstein’s residences occurred after 2013, the year that the bank claims it fired Epstein as a client. Disbursements from Epstein accounts were occurring long after 2013 according to court documents, raising questions about just when, or if, Epstein was terminated as a client from the Private Bank or the bank’s brokerage unit, J.P. Morgan Securities. Nelson was dually employed at both units.Notwithstanding this hard evidence of JPMorgan Chase’s culpability in the Epstein saga, on February 7 of this year – months after the bank had quietly settled its case against Staley and the matter had disappeared from news headlines – Bloomberg News inexplicably decided to put Staley and Epstein back in its headlines. (Paywall.) In an article written by Harry Wilson, Ava Benny-Morrison, and Jason Leopold, one sentence jumps out. It reads: “The bank, which through Staley served Epstein as a client….”The bank’s own chart, linked above in the ninth paragraph, shows that the following 14 individuals, in addition to Staley, were making visits to Epstein’s private residences while employed at the bank:Paul Barrett (Managing Director, Private Bank); Mary Casey (Managing Director, Private Bank); John Duffy (CEO, Private Bank); Mary Erdoes (CEO, Asset & Wealth Management); David Frame (Global Chief Executive, Private Bank); Christopher French (Managing Director, Private Bank); Joanna Jagoda (Assistant General Counsel, Legal); Jeffrey Matusow (Managing Director, Private Bank); Thomas McGraw (Managing Director, Private Bank); Paul Morris (Banker, Private Bank); Justin Nelson (Managing Director, Private Bank); Carolyn Reers, Managing Director, Private Bank); James von Moltke (job title not provided by the bank).If Dimon is fearful of Staley providing evidence against the bank in the Epstein matter to the criminal division of the U.S. Department of Justice, it would have an incentive to continue to undermine Staley’s credibility in the press.
Jamie Dimon’s Statement Last Month that Trump “Was Kind of Right About NATO,” Sounds Even More Unhinged Today --By Pam and Russ Martens - On January 17 of this year, during a CNBC interview during the World Economic Forum in Davos, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, made the unhinged remark that Donald Trump “was kind of right about NATO.”A New York Times article from January 14, 2019 outlined Trump’s position on NATO as follows:“There are few things that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia desires more than the weakening of NATO, the military alliance among the United States, Europe and Canada that has deterred Soviet and Russian aggression for 70 years.“Last year, President Trump suggested a move tantamount to destroying NATO: the withdrawal of the United States.”This past Saturday, during a campaign stop in South Carolina, Trump recited a prior conversation he said he had had about NATO with a world leader. The video clip of Trump’s remarks was aired yesterday on NBC’s Meet the Press:TRUMP: “One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, ‘Well, sir, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?’ I said, ‘You didn’t pay. You’re delinquent?’ He said, ‘Yes. Let’s say that happened.’ [Trump says he responded:] ‘No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You’ve got to pay. You’ve got to pay your bills.”Putting aside the fact that Trump is notorious for not paying his bills and taking his businesses into bankruptcy six times, the U.S. and its allies are currently attempting to stop Russia in its invasion of Ukraine and to present a united front to Russian President Vladimir Putin to prevent an invasion of a neighboring NATO country.Former New Jersey Governor, Chris Christie, who recently dropped out as a Republican candidate for president, was interviewed on Meet the Press yesterday and asked about Trump’s remarks on Saturday about NATO. Christie had this to say:CHRISTIE: “Well, look, this is why I’ve been saying for a long time that he’s unfit to be president of the United States. Now, it’s one thing and I think it’s right for a president to say to a NATO member, ‘Hey, you’ve got to pay the dues you need to pay.’ I think the American people would expect that of a president. But the problem with Donald Trump is he can’t just stop there. He’s got to say, ‘I would encourage Russia to do whatever the hell they wanted to you.’ That is absolutely inappropriate for a president of the United States or a candidate for president of the United States to be saying. But it is consistent with his love for dictators.” A current Republican presidential candidate, Nikki Haley, was interviewed yesterday on CBS’ Face the Nation. Haley was asked about the same Trump remarks. Her response was this:HALEY: “NATO has been a success story for the last 75 years. But what bothers me about this is, don’t take the side of a thug who kills his opponents. Don’t take the side of someone who has gone in and invaded a country and half-a-million people have died or been wounded because of Putin.“Don’t take the side of someone who continues to lie. I dealt with Russia every day [as former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations]. The last thing we ever want to do is side with Russia. If you notice, Russia has never invaded a NATO country. They’ve invaded Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.“They are actually very intimidated by – by NATO. NATO allows us to prevent war. We need to always focus on preventing war.”White House spokesman, Andrew Bates, had this to say about Trump’s remarks on NATO: “Encouraging invasions of our closest allies by murderous regimes is appalling and unhinged – and it endangers American national security, global stability and our economy at home.”Trump’s remarks were also quickly rebuked by European leaders.Why Jamie Dimon, who sits at the helm of the largest taxpayer-backstopped bank in the United States (and has presided over a rap sheet that rivals that of an organized crime family) thinks he has a right to undermine NATO in the midst of a brutal Russian invasion and during delicate deliberations in Congress to pass financial aid to Ukraine, should greatly disturb the shareholders of JPMorgan Chase, as well as every clear-thinking American.
As Sam Bankman-Fried awaits prison sentence, FTX customers await a surprise: full repayment - - As Sam Bankman-Fried prepares to face sentencing next month for his criminal fraud conviction tied to the epic collapse of FTX in 2022, former customers of the crypto exchange have reasons to believe they could actually recoup their money.Bankman-Fried, who could spend the rest of his life behind bars, was found guilty in November on seven criminal counts after roughly $10 billion in customer funds from his company went missing. Some of that money went to pay for Bankman-Fried’s lavish lifestyle, but much of it went towards other investments that have, of late, appreciated dramatically in value.Lawyers representing the bankruptcy estate of FTX told a judge in Delaware last week that they expect to fully repay customers and creditors with legitimate claims. Bankruptcy attorney Andrew Dietderich, who works with FTX’s new leadership team, said “there is still a great amount of work and risk” ahead in getting all the money back to clients, but that the team has a “strategy to achieve it.”It’s a welcome development for the many thousands of customers (reportedly up to a million) who collectively lost billions of dollars in FTX’s collapse 15 months ago, when the crypto exchange spiraled into bankruptcy in a matter of days. Given the lightly regulated and unsecured nature of FTX — and the crypto industry at large — those clients faced the real possibility that the vast majority of their money had evaporated. Plenty of failed hedge funds and lenders lost virtually everything during the 2022 crypto winter.Bankman-Fried never believed his company’s situation was that dire.Even as regulators and federal prosecutors unearthed evidence showing that the 31-year-old entrepreneur and his top lieutenants had been pilfering billions of dollars from customer wallets for years, Bankman-Fried insisted that all the money was still somehow accessible.“FTX US remains fully solvent,” Bankman-Fried wrote in a Substack post on Jan. 12, 2023, while he was under house arrest at his parents’ home in Palo Alto, California. He said the exchange “should be able to return all customers’ funds.”In some ways, his narrative appears to be proving true.For months, FTX’s new CEO, John Ray III, and his team of restructuring advisors have been clawing back cash, luxury property, and crypto, as well as tracking down missing assets. They’ve already collected more than $7 billion, and that doesn’t include valuables like $26 million in gifts and property to Bankman-Fried’s parents, or the $700 million handed over to K5 Global and founder Michael Kives, who invested FTX cash in companies like SpaceX. Some of those investments have seen a precipitous rise in value.FTX had been negotiating with bidders about a potential reboot of the company, but those efforts were scrapped last month.Braden Perry, who was once a senior trial lawyer for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.S. regulator that oversaw FTX’s registered derivatives platform, told CNBC that the decision to repay users in full came after ”the abandonment of efforts to restart the FTX crypto exchange,” in favor of “a focus on liquidating assets to make customers whole.”Getting actual money back in the hands of customers still remains a challenge. While a lot of the value has been recouped and more is to come, divvying up large amounts of cash is a complex process in bankruptcies, particularly when so much of the money is in non-traditional and illiquid assets.
Crypto exchange Coinbase posts first profit in two years on robust trading (Reuters) - Coinbase Global on Thursday posted its first quarterly profit since 2021 on sturdy trading volumes due to a resurgence of interest in crypto, sending its shares up nearly 13% after the bell. Investor enthusiasm for crypto was rekindled in recent months by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) highly anticipated approval of the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While the ETFs were approved only in January, expectations of a favorable decision by the SEC propelled bitcoin's price 57% higher in the last three months of 2023. That drove a 64% jump in crypto exchange Coinbase's transaction revenue to $529.3 million in the fourth quarter. "Results this quarter were exceptional as they far exceeded both our expectations and Street consensus," said Michael Elliott, equity research analyst with CFRA Research. The crypto exchange now expects a strong first quarter for its subscription and services unit, which houses businesses other than trading. It forecast revenue from the unit between $410 million and $480 million, higher than LSEG estimate of $356.22 million. In the fourth quarter, revenue from the unit jumped nearly 33% to $375.4 million, with the biggest boost coming from stablecoin revenue - the interest that Coinbase earns from its partnership with fintech firm Circle. Circle issues the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin that it jointly governs with Coinbase. The interest on reserves backing USDC are a major source of revenue for Coinbase, which has been able to pocket higher income because of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. Overall, the company reported a profit of $273.4 million, or $1.04 per share, in the three months ended Dec. 31, compared with a loss of $557 million, or $2.46 per share, a year earlier. Analysts had expected a loss of 1 cent per share, according to LSEG data.
Crypto VC funding climbs for first time in 2 years after bitcoin rally - Crypto had a big bounceback year in 2023. Now, venture investors are returning. Venture funding for crypto-related companies in the fourth quarter of 2023 totaled $1.9 billion, a 2.5% increase from the prior quarter, PitchBook said Thursday. It marks the first time that venture VC investments in crypto startups have risen since the March quarter of 2022. It's a welcome stat for crypto entrepreneurs who've been bruised by the last couple of years of the so-called "crypto winter," which made it much harder for founders to raise money. Venture funding for crypto firms slumped significantly in 2022 after a rise in interest rates from major central banks led to a flight of investors from riskier assets like tech stocks and cryptocurrencies. Problems for crypto ventures were compounded that year by major collapses of crypto companies like Do Kwon's controversial algorithmic stablecoin Terra and Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX. Major venture funds like Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, and Tiger Global were bruised by the downturn in crypto deals. In some cases, like the fall of FTX, funds had to write off their entire stake. "It's no secret investors have been writing more checks," Le said in a CNBC interview. "Now we're starting to see it in the data." Le said that crypto venture funding has bottomed with a rise in crypto asset prices and public market valuations of crypto-related companies such as Coinbase , Marathon Digital , and MicroStrategy . In the past 12 months, bitcoin has more than doubled in price and is now worth over $52,000 apiece. Coinbase stock has similarly surged, up nearly 140% year-over-year. "Generally a lot of times we see there's a correlation between investments in private markets and the public markets," Le told CNBC. "There's a lot of publicly-traded crypto companies that are up in the last year, and we're starting to see on the private side that trend as well." PitchBook said the number of deals declined 2.4% in the fourth quarter, however. Le explained this means that the strongest startups are getting the investments. "There is a little bit of concentration of capital going into fewer companies in the crypto space," he said. Bitcoin briefly crosses $52,000 as it recaptures $1 trillion market cap: CNBC Crypto WorldWATCH NOW VIDEO09:46 Bitcoin briefly crosses $52,000 as it recaptures $1 trillion market cap: CNBC Crypto World PitchBook noted that the most notable crypto ventures receiving funding focus on finance and technology solutions, such as the tokenization of real-world assets like real estate and stocks on the blockchain, and decentralized computing infrastructure. Notable fundraises during the quarter included crypto exchanges Swan Bitcoin and Blockchain.com, which raised $165 million and $100 million, respectively. The quarter's largest deal was a $225 million investment in Wormhole, an open-source blockchain development platform company, backed by the likes of Coinbase Ventures, Jump Trading, and ParaFi Capital, at a $2.5 billion valuation. Meanwhile, Together.ai, a decentralized cloud platform for large foundation models, raised $102.5 million in a Series A round led by Nvidia, Emergence, and Kleiner Perkins, at a post-money Valuation of $463.5 million. Much of the activity can be attributed to the wave of interest in crypto from financial institutions following the launch of the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. late last year, Le said. "The ETFs got approved, there's a lot of money, I think you're going to see a lot of passive money flowing into bitcoin,"
Crypto attorney weighs challenging Warren - — A prominent cryptocurrency attorney is looking to challenge Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the leading digital assets critic in Congress, according to two Massachusetts Republicans familiar with the matter. John Deaton is taking a “serious look” at running as a Republican against the state’s senior senator and former Democratic presidential candidate, Jim Conroy, a political adviser to former Massachusetts Republican Gov. Charlie Baker — who has been consulting with Deaton on a likely run — told POLITICO. The Boston Globe first reported the news.Deaton would be the first major challenger in either party to emerge against Warren, who is seeking a third term. But he would still be considered a long shot against Warren, who remains popular here and had $3.9 million in the bank at the start of the year.“Senator Warren is taking nothing for granted. She has a strong record of delivering for working families and continues to fight hard for the people of Massachusetts,” a spokesperson for Warren said in a statement.Deaton is weighing entering the race as the cryptocurrency industry is ramping up an aggressive effort to influence the 2024 elections. Anindustry-backed super PAC that has more than $80 million in the bank made its first major splash this week with a multimillion-dollar ad buy attacking Democrat Katie Porter, a Warren protégé, in the California Senate primary. And a pro-crypto Republican is running to challenge Senate Banking Chair Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) in the closely watched Ohio race that could determine the balance of power in the chamber.Warren has positioned herself as one of Congress’ most prominent crypto skeptics, aggressively pushing legislation that would crack down on the industry from her perch on the Banking Committee. She warns frequently of fraud in crypto markets and has fought against industry-backed legislation that House Republicans are pursuing.Deaton has challenged Warren’s crypto views on X, formerly Twitter, and previously helped fight an SEC lawsuit against Ripple Labs.
Big banks are nudging the SEC for a slice of sweet Bitcoin ETF action -- Major banks and financial institutions in the United States are pushing the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to re-adjust its definition of crypto assets, which could allow them to play a larger role in crypto, such as acting as custodians to the recently approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. On Feb. 14, a trade group coalition comprising the Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association, Financial Services Forum and Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association pled their case in a letter to SEC Chair Gary Gensler. The group highlighted the recent approval of spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded products in the U.S., noting that American banks were absent from the approved products as asset custodians. “The Commission recently approved 11 Spot Bitcoin ETPs, allowing investors access to this asset class through a regulated product. However, notably absent from those approved products are banking organizations serving as the asset custodian, a role they regularly play for most other ETPs.” The letter requested that the SEC consider modifications to Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (SAB 121), issued in March 2022, which provides guidance around accounting for crypto asset custody obligations. They stated that it has been two years since the issuance of the guidance, and there have been “several relevant developments” during the period, including the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. The current guidance requires banks to hold crypto assets on their balance sheet, which makes it costly and hinders their ability to provide crypto custody services at scale.
Lessons from JPMorgan's fallout with the fintech Viva Wallet - JPMorgan Chase's relationship with the Greek fintech Viva Wallet has devolved into a court battle — and a reminder of how contested the relationships between fintechs and banks can get. JPMorgan owns 48.5% of Viva Wallet under the terms of a 2022 deal, with Viva majority investorWeRealize owing the rest. Viva Wallet's founder, Haris Karonis, is suing JPMorgan, claiming the bank is suppressing Viva Wallet's growth by blocking Viva's expansion to the U.S., according to theFinancial Times, which based its reporting on legal documents. Karonis also claims JPMorgan is hindering Viva by competing directly with the fintech in parts of Europe. And JPMorgan earlier sued WRL, Karonis' holding company, claiming WRL is limiting the bank's contractual rights as an investor in Viva, the FT reported, citing "people briefed" on the dispute.The clash comes at a time when both companies are battling interest rates, inflation and an overall slowdown in the fintech sector. Those factors could place financial pressure on other bank-fintech partnerships if interests between the parties conflict and the companies are chasing markets that aren't growing as quickly as they were a few years ago."JPMorgan competes with Viva in other European countries," said Aaron McPherson, principal at AFM Consulting, noting that the deal made Viva dependent on a company whose business competes with its own. "Perhaps it is a cautionary tale for other founders."A key part of the dispute is Viva's valuation. Under the deal, JPMorgan can take full control of Viva in June 2025 if the fintech's valuation is below 5 billion euros, or about $5.3 billion. WRL claims the conditions of the "buy option" create incentives for JPMorgan to limit Viva's growth. JPMorgan contends Karonis won't accept that fintech valuations have fallen due to higher interest rates."To be able to take control of the company without further investment if its valuation did not grow to 5 billion euros is quite a deal," McPherson said.Other terms of JPMorgan's stake in Viva were not disclosed, though at the time of the deal in January 2022, Nasdaq's news site reported JPMorgan's investment was $1.15 billion and Viva's valuation was $2 billion. The FT reports JPMorgan's assessors value Viva at about $1.2 billion, while Viva's assessors peg the company's valuation at more than $3 billion. Viva was founded in 2000 and sells payment products in 24 countries. It has a banking license in the European Union through a 2020 acquisition of Praxia, a Greek digital bank.For Viva Wallet, the JPMorgan dispute exemplifies the risk of working with an investor that has similar products, said Richard Crone, a payment consultant, adding that in this case the investment comes with an unusual valuation cliff that gives the investor the right to take over the company."This is the classic risk for a startup accepting 'strategic money' from an existing market participant that their services will ultimately displace," Crone said. "That is why it is best to get tier 1 venture capital firms where there are no exclusives or protection for legacy business units."
JPMorgan, State Street quit climate group, BlackRock steps back -- (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase's and State Street's investment arms on Thursday both quit a global investor coalition pushing companies to rein in climate-damaging emissions, while BlackRock said it has transferred its membership to its international arm, limiting its involvement. The decisions together remove nearly $14 trillion of total assets from efforts to coordinate Wall Street action on tackling climate change and came after the coalition, known as Climate Action 100+, or CA100+, asked signatories to take stronger action over laggards. Financial firms have faced growing pressure from Republican politicians over their membership of such groups, amid accusations that committing to shared action could be a breach of antitrust law or fiduciary duty. None of the firms cited politics among their motivations. A spokesperson for State Street Global Advisors (SSGA), which manages $4.1 trillion, said the new priorities set by CA100+ threatened its ability to act independently. The priorities, adopted last June, call for CA100+ signatories to engage with policymakers and for some to publish details on their talks with companies towards the goal of getting them to lower emissions to zero on a net basis by 2050. The changes, however, were "not consistent with our independent approach to proxy voting and portfolio company engagement," said State Street spokesperson Randall Jensen. JPMorgan's fund arm said it had decided not to renew its membership of CA100+ after building up its own investment stewardship capabilities. The Financial Times first reported the news. The unit manages $3.1 trillion. BlackRock said it is no longer a member of the CA100+ but rather has shifted its membership in CA100+ to BlackRock International. "As BlackRock made clear when signing up as a member of CA100+ in 2020, at all times the firm maintains independence acting on behalf of clients, including in choosing which issuers to engage with, and how to vote proxies," the company said in a press release. It also said it would add a new engagement and proxy voting option to give clients a way to prioritize climate goals. BlackRock's move effectively removes $6.6 trillion, or two-thirds of its total assets, from the pool represented by CA100+. Kirsten Spalding, vice president of the Ceres Investor Network, which oversees the CA100+'s North American efforts, said the group had expected some signatories to leave as it adopted its new priorities, and that it would continue its efforts despite the loss of the big asset managers. "We knew that the focus on making sure there was movement from certain companies was going to be uncomfortable for some investors," Spalding said in an interview.
Senate Democrats press Zelle parent firm on scam reimbursement policy — A group of Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee have asked Early Warning Services — which operates the payment platform Zelle and is co-owned by seven large banks — to clarify its reimbursement policy related to scams. Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown of Ohio, along with Sens. Jack Reed of Rhode Island and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, said that they "remain concerned" about Zelle's policies related to scams, particularly impostor scams, in which someone impersonates a representative of a financial institution, a business, a utility or a government entity to trick a customer into sending money. It's unclear, based on Zelle's website, whether reimbursing customers who are victims of these scams is Zelle's policy, the lawmakers said. According to the lawmakers' letter, Zelle says on its website that if customers authorize the payment, they might not get their money back, but that "qualifying" impostor scams might be eligible for reimbursement. "Since it appears that Zelle has not shared any specific information about its reimbursement policy, customers may not know that they can be reimbursed and, thinking they may not get any help, may not report these scams," the lawmakers said in the letter, which they sent Thursday. "Zelle should clarify whether all participating banks and credit unions are required to reimburse customers who are victims of 'qualifying' impostor scams and make that policy public." It' is also "unnecessarily" difficult to report fraud and scams to Zelle, the lawmakers said. The letter follows a similar one from two years ago, led by Warren and joined not only by Reed and Brown, but by Democratic Sens. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, Chris Van Hollen of Maryland and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, alongside Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). That letter, sent to the heads of the co-owners of EWS — Bank of America, Truist Financial, Capital One Financial, JPMorgan Chase, PNC Financial Services Group, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo — registered concerns about fraud and scams on the Zelle network.
Fincen to subject investment advisors to anti-money laundering rules The Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network proposed a rule Tuesday to require investment advisers to comply with Bank Secrecy Act requirements, including implementing anti-money laundering controls and filing suspicious activity reports to FinCEN. "Investment advisers are important gatekeepers to the American economy, overseeing the investment of tens of trillions of dollars. The current patchwork of AML/CFT requirements create regulatory gaps that criminals and foreign adversaries exploit to launder money, hide illicit wealth, and compromise American innovation," said FinCEN Director Andrea Gacki. "This proposed rule would level the regulatory playing field, protect U.S. economic and national security, and safeguard American businesses." The agency has never subjected investment advisors to the full AML requirements of the Bank Secrecy Act, despite attempting to bring them under the BSA regime multiple times in the past, most recently in 2015. Under the proposal, registered investment advisors, who are accredited by the Securities and Exchange Commission, and investment advisers that report to the SEC as exempt reporting advisers would both be subject to the proposed rule. Fincen notes it is tailoring the requirements of the proposed rule to balance minimizing the burden on businesses and bolstering transparency. The proposed rule wouldn't impose AML/CFT program or SAR filing obligations on the mutual funds overseen by investment advisers, and Fincen will delegate some of its BSA examination authority to the SEC under the rule — just as it already does for broker/dealers and mutual funds. The most recent proposed rule differs from previous efforts in that it does not seek to hold investment advisors accountable for identifying customers. A senior Fincen official noted the agency will craft a separate joint proposal with the Securities and Exchange Commission outlining customer ID requirements for investment advisors in the future. Fincen also published a report detailing how various state actors — including from sanctioned jurisdictions, tax evaders, terrorist organizations and illicit actors of various kinds — tap into U.S. investment industry to circumvent sanctions and hide illicit activity.
House considers law changes to emergency bank liquidity — A House subcommittee debated whether, and what kind of, legislative changes should be made to government-provided emergency liquidity for banks, including money from the Federal Reserve and the Federal Home Loan banks. Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., chairman of the subcommittee on financial institutions and monetary policy, said that it's "an open question" as to "whether legislation may be needed to address some of the problems in the Fed's liquidity provision" that it set up last March amid the turmoil in regional banks. "Part of that reexamination involves the role played by Federal Home Loan bank loans in the provision of liquidity to banks, which we can discuss today," Barr said. "Though I am skeptical that the Home Loan banks were integral to the Fed's emergency lending clunkiness last March." The Fed set up its emergency liquidity spigot last spring to stem concerns and deposit outflows at large regional banks. That facility, the Bank Term Fund Program, will stop making new loans on March 11.Rep. Bill Foster, D-Il., the ranking member of the subcommittee, also said that lawmakers should be careful to preserve the liquidity-providing role of the Federal Home Loan banks. He said that the Federal Home Loan banks "provide key competitive advantages due to the smaller institutions that they serve."This I believe is one of the things where there is strong bipartisan concern about maintaining a healthy sized distribution in banks," he said. American Banker first reported earlier this week that the failed Heartland Tri-State Bank in Kansas rapidly ramped up borrowing from a Federal Home Loan bank as its CEO allegedly embezzled funds from the bank into crypto scams. While some Democrats in the Senate, including Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, have questioned the Federal Home Loan banks' overseeing regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, on the role of the Federal Home Loan banks in the regional banking crisis, including the system's high level of loans to institutions that failed, Foster said that it's a "huge advantage" for small businesses to have a variety of financial institutions of varying sizes bidding for their loans. The FHFA in October released the results of a long-awaited report outlining reforms to the Federal Home Loan banks, including reinforcing the government-chartered lenders' primary role in improving affordability in the housing market.
The Basel III rule would hamstring small businesses like mine | American Banker - Jill Bommarito, CEO, Ethel’s Baking Co. - For many small-business owners like me, accessing the capital we need to sustain and grow our operations has never been more challenging. Interest rates have jumped at a record pace to 20-year highs and lending has tightened in the Federal Reserve's ongoing effort to curb inflation and reduce demand.Now, adding to that one-two gut punch, the Federal Reserve is proposing a new regulation known as the Basel III endgame. These rules would exacerbate this already difficult situation by making it even harder and more expensive for small-business owners to secure the funds we need to operate.On January 18, 2024, I had the opportunity to testify before the U.S. House Small Business Committee on small-business owners' difficulty accessing capital and how Basel III endgame would make matters worse. While many in the halls of Congress would call my business the epitome of the American Dream — we have experienced consistent growth as our dessert bars are now in major retail stores like Target and Whole Foods — I shared with policymakers the stark reality: Lenders regularly label me and other small businesses as too risky and limit our access to capital. These circumstances have required me to use personal savings as well as sell equity in my company in order to raise capital.This capital crunch is keeping small businesses from reaching their full potential and policymakers must understand that the Federal Reserve's proposed Basel III endgame will only further squeeze small businesses by tightening an already difficult lending environment.To say that consideration of Basel III comes at an already precarious time for small-business owners would be an understatement. A recent survey of small-business owners conducted by Goldman Sachs, "10,000 Small Businesses Voices," found that access to capital is a top challenge.More than three quarters of small-business owners surveyed in January 2024 say they are concerned about their ability to access capital, a sharp change from April 2022 when 77% said they were confident about credit. And 86% say that a tightening capital market will compromise their plans to expand — and could lead to layoffs or business closures.That's why small-business owners like me are so alarmed at the prospect of Basel III capping our nation's creative and entrepreneurial wellspring. Making it more expensive for banks to lend to small businesses, and no doubt expecting owners to shoulder those pass-along costs, will hobble our ability to survive and grow, innovate and compete.If enacted, this rule would not only cut off many small businesses from accessing the capital they need to grow, but it will push small-business owners to predatory lenders because they'll have no other choice. Alarmingly, the same survey of small-business owners shows small-business owners turning to predatory lending amid the capital crunch is already beginning.
Rep. Andy Barr to introduce bill on bank mergers — Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., plans to introduce a bill that would put timing guardrails on the Federal Reserve regarding bank merger applications, according to a copy of the bill first seen by American Banker. In general, the bill would tighten requirements for the Fed and how it considers bank mergers, specifically aiming at preventing the central bank from slow-walking applications. Barr, who chairs the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Monetary Policy, will introduce the bill on Friday. The bill would allow the Fed 90 days to approve a bank merger application from the time it's submitted, and the central bank would have to acknowledge the application and say whether it is complete — at least — within 30 days. Should the Fed Board not grant or deny a bank merger application within the 90 day window, approval would automatically be granted. "In the face of an administration that seems to fear healthy competition and growth in our banking sector, this bill sends a clear message: It's time to cut through the bureaucratic delays," Barr told American Banker. "By enforcing a strict 90-day deadline for the Federal Reserve on bank merger applications, we're pushing back against the slow-walking tactics that have hindered our financial institutions. This legislation is a step towards a more dynamic, diverse and competitive banking environment, free from unnecessary regulatory paralysis." This would be a much tougher standard for the central bank to meet compared with its current timing threshold, which simply requires the Fed, according to the Bank Holding Company Act, to approve or deny a merger within a 91-day period beginning on the day the Fed receives a "complete" application. Banks have waited the longest they have in years for bank merger approval at the Fed, according to a semiannual report the central bank put out in September. In 2022, the average wait time was 87 days. The legislation comes as bank regulators consider toughening their policies on bank merger approvals. Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu proposed a rule in late January that would eliminate the timeout clause within his agency that says merger applications are deemed approved on the 15th day after the close of the regulatory comment period.
Fed's Barr says supervisors have stepped-up vigilance since SVB - Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said Friday federal bank supervisory teams have ramped up inspection of the banks they supervise given a "heightened risk environment" drawing on lessons from bank failures in March 2023. "The Federal Reserve has issued more supervisory findings and downgraded firms' supervisory ratings at a higher rate in the past year [and] increased our issuance of enforcement actions," he said. "These actions do not represent a change in policy; they reflect the impact of the changing economic, interest rate, and financial environment on a bank's financial resources." In the remarks — delivered to a crowd at Columbia Law School's annual banking conference — Barr discussed how supervisors can address emerging 'gray areas' of risk that aren't yet formally subject to regulations. Specifically, Barr touched on how the Fed has translated lessons learned from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, as detailed in a post-mortem report he authored, into concrete supervisory measures. Many policymakers, including Barr, have highlighted the significance of the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act of 2018, also known as S. 2155, in removing the automatic enhanced regulatory requirements that SVB would have previously encountered as the bank expanded in size. While the removal of the automatic regulatory trigger could have potentially influenced SVB's risk trajectory, Barr emphasized in his remarks that risks don't spontaneously manifest at banks with this level of assets. He said much of the risk at SVB had accumulated prior to the bank crossing the $100 billion threshold. Therefore, he said, Fed supervisors will continue to apply additional scrutiny to large regionals nearing $100 billion in assets, while smaller firms shouldn't anticipate any supervisory changes. "For large and more complex regional banking organizations, including firms that are growing rapidly, we are assessing such a firm's condition, strategy, and risk management more frequently, and deepening our supervisory interactions with the firm," he said. Barr said Fed supervisors are also actively pushing firms nearing the threshold to proactively invest in scaling their capabilities to ensure a more seamless regulatory transition. To accomplish this, he said, the agency is ensuring supervisory teams overseeing such banks maintain communication with those overseeing banks already above the threshold. "Application of standards for larger banks should not require significant changes in a firm's risk management capabilities because the bank should have been making these investments along the way," he said. "The goal is that the transition to heightened supervision for fast-growing banks is more of a gradual slope and not a cliff." Barr also noted supervisors are stepping up their scrutiny of any high volumes of unrealized losses at financial institutions — another major driver of SVB's collapse. "Examiners have been conducting additional targeted examinations for firms with large unrealized losses or other vulnerabilities," he said. "For a small number of banks with a risk profile that could result in funding pressures for the firm, supervisors are continuously monitoring these firms."
BankThink: Raising the threshold for tougher bank regs may not have paid off after all | American Banker - A few weeks ago, we all learned that New York Community Bank — which had acquired roughly $38 billion of assets from Signature Bank, one of the casualties of last year's midsize bank crisis — washaving some problems. During their fourth quarter earnings call Jan. 31, NYCB executives charged off a couple of loans, increased its loan loss reserves and cut its dividend significantly, which in turn caused its stock price to plummet.There are many, many takes out there about what went wrong at NYCB and what it means for the rest of the banking industry and the economy at large, but the aspect of this episode that may be worthy of deeper consideration is whether enhanced regulatory obligations brought about by rapid growth had the effect of destabilizing the bank. NYCB CEO and President Thomas Cangemi said the acquisition of Signature's assets last year spurred the bank to pass the $100 billion asset mark "sooner than anticipated" and as a result the bank "pivoted quickly and accelerated some necessary enhancements," namely in the form of additional loan loss reserves. Keep in mind that one of the faults found in the Silicon Valley Bank experience was that regulators — and the bank itself — were unable to keep pace with the bank's dramatic growth, so perhaps regulators overlearned the lesson and cracked down extra hard on NYCB as its asset portfolio grew.
Failed Kansas bank rapidly borrowed $21 million from FHLB system - Heartland Tri-State Bank borrowed $21 million from the Federal Home Loan Bank System before it failed in July, providing another example of troubled banks tapping the system prior to collapsing. Heartland Tri-State failed after its former CEO Shan Hanes allegedly embezzled funds from both the $139 million-asset bank and its customers, using the funds to purchase doomed crypto investments. Hanes was indicted earlier this month in U.S. District Court for the District of Kansas. Around the time that Hanes allegedly embezzled the funds from the bank, Heartland Tri-State borrowed about $21 million from an unnamed Federal Home Loan bank, according to a new report from the Office of the Inspector General for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Those advances were acquired during June and July 2023, according to the report. Those kinds of advances weren't typical for the bank. In the last three years, Heartland Tri-State had not borrowed any funds from the Home Loan Bank System. In court documents in the Hanes case, prosecutors said that the embezzlement happened beginning around May 30 and continued through at least July 7. "The idea that a small bank could go from zero to over $20 million in FHLB borrowing in two months and not raise any flags is astounding," said Aaron Klein, senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. The $21 million in advances represented a significant portion of Heartland Tri-State's assets — around 15%. "FHLB borrowing allowed the bank to lose even more money, resulting in even greater losses to the taxpayer," Klein said. "The failure of this bank is expected to cost $54 million to the [Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.], a number which is likely higher because the FHLBs are always paid back before the FDIC." Heartland Tri-State "nearly exhausted its sources of liquidity to fund the CEO's wire transfers," the OIG report said. As of the bank's March 31 call report, Heartland Tri-State had no borrowings from any institutions. Then, as of the last week of July 2023, when the bank failed, it had used up about $24 million of its line of credit at a correspondent bank that it used to process its wire transfers, leaving only about $700,000 remaining.
Fed's Barr: One earnings miss does not a banking crisis make — Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said Wednesday that recent turmoil in the regional banking sector is not indicative of problems in the broader banking system, but noted that banks should prime themselves to tap the Fed's discount window and that the central bank is working to improve its operations at the last-resort lending facility.In a speech before the National Association of Business Economists annual conference, Barr said the recent declines in stock valuations at a number of regional banks that kicked off after a Jan. 31 earnings call from New York Community Bank — in which the bank reported a quarterly loss due to increased regulatory compliance costs and additional loan loss reserves — is not cause for concern. Without naming New York Community Bank explicitly, Barr said a single bad result at a single bank should not be interpreted as a leading indicator of future turmoil."A single bank missing its revenue expectations and increasing its provisioning does not change the fact that the overall banking system is strong," he said. "We see no signs of liquidity problems across the system."But Barr reiterated his call for banks to preposition collateral with the Fed's discount window to give it more liquidity options in times of stress, and said the Fed is also working on its end to make the process smoother and more routine."Banks should do some preparation to be fully ready to tap the window [and] that includes pre-positioning collateral, and testing discount window usage," he said. "While banks do their part to get operationally ready, we at the Federal Reserve also need to continue to improve discount window operations."Barr has long advocated for banks to tap the discount window, which enables banks to obtain on-demand liquidity in exchange for high-quality assets. Banks for their part have long been loath to use the facility because of the implication that doing so would shake investor and depositor confidence in their bank. Barr has previously pointed out banks too often wait to familiarize themselves with the facility until after the point of no return.Barr also noted that despite what he characterized as the banking system's continued resilience and recovery from last spring's turmoil, regulators remain vigilant in monitoring certain pockets of risks. He also discussed the rising risks related to commercial real estate lending, which he said continues to pose challenges for banks due to decreased revenues and valuation of properties after the pandemic triggered the rise of remote work and office space reductions.
Regulators push Citi to move faster on risk management fixes: Report --More than three years after Citigroup was penalized in connection with risk management problems, regulators have stepped up their pressure on the New York megabank,according to a Reuters article Monday. Citi received three notices late last year from the Federal Reserve, which implemented six-month and 12-month deadlines by which the bank must make changes to the way it measures particular risks, according to the story, which cited an email and an anonymous source.The $2.4 trillion-asset bank also recently failed exams by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the report said. Those exams were meant to determine whether the company is advancing on data integrity as much as it says it is.Reuters also reported that Citi's own audit staff have said that some of the work related to risk management isn't sufficient and that the bank hasn't fulfilled regulators' requirements that the board of directors and the senior management team receive more information about firmwide risks.The regulators' demands relate to Citi's ongoing risk management overhaul, which is meant to address a pair of consent orders issued in 2020 by the Fed and the OCC. Those orders, and an accompanying $400 million civil penalty paid to the OCC, followed several risk-related blunders at Citi, including a mistaken payment of $900 million to the creditors of cosmetics company Revlon.Ever since, Citi has been investing heavily — both in dollars and increased staffing — in what bank executives call a "transformation" of its risk and controls systems. A large part of that process involves moving from manual processes to more automated ones in order to avoid human errors.Citi on Monday did not confirm the reporting in the Reuters story. In an email, a spokesperson for the bank said that its top priority is "meeting the expectations" of regulators."We're making steady progress simplifying and modernizing our bank," Citi's statement read. "Like any multiyear effort of this scale, progress isn't linear and there are important learnings along the way that we're incorporating into our efforts, including in the areas of regulatory reporting, infrastructure and data enhancement. We continue to advance this critical body of work."According to Reuters, the Fed sent three notices of "matters requiring immediate attention" to Citi. One of them reportedly has a six-month deadline, and the other two have deadlines of one year.The notices "instruct Citi to improve its data and governance around how it sets aside capital to account for counterparty credit risks," according to an unnamed source in the Reuters story.The latest developments come as Jane Fraser enters her fourth year as CEO of Citi. The company, which has long lagged behind similarly sized U.S. banks in terms of efficiency and shareholder returns, is in the midst of a multiyear plan to improve in both areas by simplifying itself.Citi's restructuring plan involves selling or winding down lagging businesses and retail franchises,reducing management layers and eliminating 20,000 jobs, or about 10% of its total workforce, by the end of 2026. The company plans to cut about 5,000 roles by the end of March, which will result in $1 billion of run-rate savings, executives told analysts in January. That's on top of roughly 7,000 jobs that were axed in the fourth quarter of 2023 and 6,000 during the first nine months last year.
Citigroup Is Having a Very Bad Week; Regulators Are Breathing Down Its Neck -- By Pam and Russ Martens ---At the exact moment that the stock market closed on Monday, Reuters dropped a bombshell in Warren Buffett’s lap with news that federal banking regulators are breathing down Citigroup’s neck. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway owns 55,244,797 shares of Citigroup, according to its last 13F filing with the SEC. The bulk of the stake was acquired in the first quarter of 2022. (See our report: Warren Buffett Is Taking a Flyer on $3 Billion of Citigroup’s Stock — After It Loses 40 Percent in a Year.)While a $3 billion stock holding is chump change for Berkshire (as of its last 13F filing, it owned approximately $33 billion in Bank of America stock), Buffett has a stock-picking reputation to defend and neither the history of Citigroup nor its troubles today are boosting that reputation.On Monday, with the strike of the closing bell, Reuters reported the following:“U.S. regulators have asked Citigroup for urgent changes to the way it measures default risk of its trading partners and the bank’s own auditors have found a plan to improve internal oversight to be lacking, developments that could hinder CEO Jane Fraser’s plans to revive the bank’s fortunes.“Late last year, the Federal Reserve sent Citi three notices directing the bank to address in the coming months how it measures risk of default by counterparties in derivative transactions, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said.”To fully grasp the hubris at Citigroup, a few key historic details are in order.First, Citigroup’s Citibank turned money laundering into an art form, or perhaps a concierge service, with its own “relationship managers.”Second, Citigroup received the largest bailout in global banking history before, during and after the financial crash of 2008 – a crash it played a pivotal role in causing with its subprime debt bombs and off-balance-sheet Structured Investment Vehicles (SIVs). Between December 2007 and July 2010, Citigroup received the following bailouts: The U.S. Treasury injected $45 billion of capital into Citigroup; there was a government guarantee of over $300 billion on certain of its assets; the FDIC provided a guarantee of $5.75 billion on its senior unsecured debt and $26 billion on its commercial paper and interbank deposits; and secret revolving loans from the Federal Reserve sluiced a cumulative $2.5 trillion in below-market-rate loans to Citigroup according to an audit released by the Government Accountability Office in 2011.Third, despite the unprecedented infusions of capital, guarantees and secret loans from the Fed, Citigroup’s share price sank to 99 cents in the spring of 2009. In a clever maneuver to dress up its share price and remove the beaten-down appearance of a single digit stock, effective May 9, 2011, Citigroup did a 1-for-10 reverse stock split, meaning if you had 100 shares of Citigroup previously, you were left with just 10 shares; but those shares now had a double-digit price that looked far more respectable to the uninformed.The shocking truth is that if you owned Citigroup’s stock on January 1, 2008 – the year of the worst financial crash since the Great Depression – and you maintained your position in the stock all these years, you are still down 76 percent on the share price. (See chart above.)
Five Wall Street Banks Hold $223 Trillion in Derivatives -- 83 Percent of All Derivatives at 4,600 Banks --By Pam and Russ Martens -- According to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), derivatives played a major role in the financial crash of 2007 to 2010 in the United States, the worst financial crisis in the U.S. since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The FCIC wrote in its final report: “…the existence of millions of derivatives contracts of all types between systemically important financial institutions — unseen and unknown in this unregulated market — added to uncertainty and escalated panic….”Americans believed that the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 would fulfill its promise of reining in concentrated risks like derivatives. It did not. (See our report from 2015: President Has His Facts Seriously Wrong on Financial Reform.)According to data from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the regulator of national banks, as of March 31, 2009, five bank holding companies held $277.57 trillion in derivatives (notional/face amount). At that time, according to the FDIC, there were 8,249 federally-insured commercial banks and savings associations in the U.S. but just five bank holding companies held 95 percent of all derivatives at all U.S. banks. Those financial institutions were: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup. Now flash forward to the most recent report from the OCC for the quarter ending September 30, 2023. According to that report, those same five bank holding companies hold $223 trillion of the $268 trillion in derivatives held by all banks in the U.S., or 83 percent. Equally alarming, those same five bank holding companies control 96 percent of the most dangerous form of derivatives – credit derivatives. The five bank holding companies account for $5.8 trillion in credit derivatives versus $6 trillion in credit derivatives for all banks in the U.S.The Federal Reserve secretly funneled $16 trillion in cumulative loans at below-market interest rates to prop up the Wall Street casino banks from December 2007 through June of 2010, in no small part because of the systemic contagion that spread from their concentrated positions in derivatives.To prevent a replay of the Wall Street mega banks blowing themselves up as they did in 2008, federal banking regulators in July of last year released a proposal that would impose higher capital rules on just 37 banks (out of the 4,600 banks in the U.S.). The proposed new capital rules would impact just those banks significantly engaged in derivatives and other high-risk trading strategies.The backlash has been fierce from Wall Street’s mega banks, with the banks even running television ads painting a bogus and distorted picture of what the capital increases would do.Another major area of concern is who is on the other side of these derivative trades with the mega banks – their so-called “counterparty.”According to federal researchers, there are both mega bank counterparties as well as “non-bank financial counterparties” – which could be insurance companies, brokerage firms, asset managers or hedge funds. There are also “non-financial corporate counterparties” – which could be just about any domestic or foreign corporation. To put it another way, the American people have no idea if they own common stock in a publicly-traded company that could blow up any day from reckless dealings in derivatives with global banks.
Federal Reserve unveils rigorous 2024 stress tests — The Federal Reserve Board Thursday released its stress test scenarios Thursday, envisioning a widespread market cooldown and dramatic drops in asset prices. As with the 2023 stress test scenario, the 2024 tests will evaluate the resilience of banks above $100 billion in assets in a scenario that simulates severe market volatility. In this scenario, domestic unemployment soars to 10% accompanied by a widening spread on corporate bonds and major declines in the prices of assets, including a 36% drop in housing prices and 40% decline in commercial real estate values. Under this year's scenarios, large banks with significant custodial or trading volumes face an additional counterparty default scenario component to gauge potential losses and hits to bank capital if the firm's single largest counterparty defaults. Financial institutions with substantial trading operations will also be subject to a 'global market shock' component that tests strain on these firms' investment holdings. Thursday's release of the tests also included for the first time a four-part 'exploratory analysis' of the banking system to gauge banks' ability to withstand additional risks not traditionally captured in the stress tests. That's something regulators like Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr have called for previously, arguing that diversifying the kinds of tests the agency runs could help regulators and banks alike anticipate potential future systemic risks. Two of the exploratory analyses will probe the effects of funding stresses that induce swift repricing of deposits at big firms — the first set in the context of a moderate recession with rising inflation and interest rates, and the second in a global recession with persistently high inflation and rising interest rates. The other two of the four analyses will include two sets of market disruptions — under two sets of market conditions — applied to the most sophisticated U.S. banks and examining the impact of the failure of five large hedge funds on the largest banks. In contrast to the stress tests, the analyses take a look at overarching economic impacts of such scenarios to the broader market rather than scrutinizing the effects on firms individually. The results of both the stress tests and exploratory analyses will be published later in the year in June of 2024. Stress testing — one of the most consequential innovations to materialize from the 2008 financial crisis — has emerged as the Fed's leading supervisory exercise to assess the fiscal health of the largest banks.
Senate Democrats back Fed's reform proposal for GSIB surcharge -Four Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee have endorsed the Federal Reserve proposed changes to a capital requirement imposed upon the nation's largest banks.Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Jack Reed, D-R.I., and John Fetterman, D-Pa., sent a letter to Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr on Thursday expressing their support for potential changes to the Global Systemically Important Bank, or GSIB, surcharge. Put forth in July alongside a broader set of capital reforms known as the Basel III endgame, the GSIB surcharge proposal would change the reporting standards that feed into capital requirements for the eight largest U.S.-based banks — Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street and Wells Fargo.The change in the reporting standard is meant to smooth out the sometimes drastic shifts from tier to tier within the GSIB capital framework, avoiding the so-called "cliff effect." As proposed, no U.S. firm would see their capital requirements altered. Still, the senators called the move an important step to better safeguarding the financial system."The proposal would enhance the sensitivity and responsiveness of the surcharge to changes in an institution's risk profile and deter firms from gaming the system to lower their capital buffers," they wrote. "These banks should be using more shareholders' equity to fund their risky activities, so that they — not U.S. taxpayers — are on the hook if those bets do not pay off."The letter from Brown, the chair of the Banking Committee, along with Warren, Reed and Fetterman represents some of the most direct and clear congressional support for the capital reform efforts currently being pursued by bank regulators in Washington. Republicans have broadly opposed the various proposals from the Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and some more moderate Democrats have also been skeptical of the reforms. Regulators do not need congressional approval for their changes, but the reforms are increasingly being debated in the court of public opinion.
CFPB probes Honda financing arm — The financing arm of Honda is facing a probe by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, according to a regulatory filing. American Honda Finance Corp., which is wholly owned by Honda Motors, said on Friday in its fourth-quarter 10-Q filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it received a "civil investigative demand" from the CFPB in November. The investigation is connected to the financing arm's "furnishing of credit reporting information on consumer accounts." The company said that it's cooperating with the bureau but "cannot predict the eventual scope, duration or outcome of this investigation and is unable to estimate the amount or range of potential losses, if any, at this time." The CFPB declined to comment. American Honda Finance did not respond to requests for comment. The bureau recently cracked down on another auto financing entity: Toyota Motor Credit Co. The CFPB in November ordered the auto finance division of Toyota to pay $60 million after the bureau found that it delayed and withheld customer refunds, made it difficult to cancel unwanted add-on products and reported false information about consumers to credit bureaus, according to a CFPB consent order. "Given the growing burdens of auto loan payments on Americans, we will continue to pursue large auto lenders that cheat their customers," CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said at the time.
BankThink: As U.S. nears 'soft landing,' we must help guide others out of the storm | American Banker - Recently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made a case that America's long-standing role as a democratic and economic standard-bearer is a critical pillar of American prosperity."[S]ince World War II, the United States has been the indispensable nation supporting and defending democracy, security arrangements, economic arrangements," Powell said. "It benefits our economy so much to have this role." As market leaders and everyday Americans cautiously look to a light at the end of the inflation tunnel, Chairman Powell's work to achieve domestic economic stability seems to have had the desired effect. Even Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that America may have achieved the elusive economic "soft landing."But across the developing world, the landing has not been nearly as soft. Our global partners face enormous economic turbulence, in part a consequence of the sheer weight of our own domestic fiscal policy.The World Bank recently rang the alarm on a growing "silent debt crisis" in emerging markets, with its 2023 International Debt Report highlighting a 20-year peak in sovereign debt defaults. Global investors have moved more than $50 billion out of riskier emerging markets to take advantage of higher U.S. interest rates, leading to a decrease in the value of local currencies in developing nations and increasing barriers to financing. As many of these nations seek to roll over debt in the coming months, many developing nations teeter upon a dangerous cliff of insolvency."For the poorest countries, debt has become a nearly paralyzing burden," the report says. As is almost always the case, the hammer falls hardest on the poor.These countries now grapple with skyrocketing prices, a lack of financial support and supply chain issues. The economic distress placed upon these emerging markets forces the most vulnerable into impossible decisions, with those experiencing extreme poverty bearing the brunt of this burden.As a global nongovernmental organization dedicated to financial inclusion efforts for the extreme poor, Opportunity International sees firsthand how this "silent" debt crisis has a very real impact on hundreds of millions around the world. Agricultural prices have increased by over 300% in nearly every market where we work. In countries like Ghana, where they face inflation at rates greater than 30%, small- and micro-business owners are unable to respond quickly enough to rising interest rates and cannot replenish stocks while still continuing to make a profit.The global community must meet this increasing need with a diverse response to help guide the most vulnerable out of the storm. The World Bank itself recommends very specific solutions, like access to new debt exchanges, debt buybacks and other products that can help emerging markets manage portfolios before we face global catastrophe. Global leaders at last year's Paris Summit reiterated the need for private investors to renew their interests in developing markets and called for new partnerships to stimulate investment and provide flexibility for innovative financing that can reignite economies.But none of this will happen without a standard-bearer to champion the cause.Chairman Powell's comments this week underscore a cautiously optimistic outlook for the future of the American economy — but what of our global leadership and standing around the globe? As American markets begin our descent to that soft landing, we must also be mindful of our global partners still searching for a path out of the storm.It is time we own up to our role as global economic leaders and shift our efforts to give voice to those suffering the silent debt crisis — a voice that investors and creditors around the world cannot ignore. In Chairman Powell's own words, it will benefit our own economy to do so.
India's CBDC project gets larger, Visa/Mastercard expand in Egypt | PaymentsSource | American Banker
- India wants to make CBDCs operable in non-digital locations - The Reserve Bank of India is conducting several tests of the country's central bank digital currency, including programmable payments and a push to support retail CBDC transactions in rural or low-internet areas. The programmable payments could include using the digital rupee to schedule payments at a certain time, or under certain conditions, reports the Economic Times of India and other local media, citing commentary from an RBI press conference. The tests will also determine how the CBDC could be used to make payments offline, which would address access for a wider range of merchants. Retail CBDCs are a type of digital currency which is designed for consumer transactions such as in-store payments, and are considered more difficult to design and build. Wholesale CBDCs are designed for larger transactions between governments or large banks and have progressed faster. —John Adams
- Visa connects with Egypt's central bank to boost remittances - Visa has signed a memorandum of understanding with government agencies in Egypt to improve processing for transfers from expatriates to relatives inside Egypt. The card network is working with Egyptian Banks Co. for Technological Advancements (EBC), an organization that operates and builds new payment systems for the Central Bank of Egypt. The program will use Visa's technology and EBC's infrastructure to support digital wallets, electronic payments and other products. The initial project will enable consumers to initiate transfers from Visa accounts to recipients through Egypt's instant settlement network. Another project will include partnerships with commercial banks to support payments via the recipient's mobile phone number. Visa's recent work with central banks includes a partnership to develop Brazil's central bank digital currency to enable local farmers to access clients in other nations. —John Adams
- Mastercard expands its reach in Egypt - Mastercard was also active this week in Egypt, signing a partnership deal with Al Baraka Bank to support payment products for consumer, commercial and small-business customers. The card network is seeking to grow its financial inclusion efforts in the country, which, like most nations, is moving away from traditional cash-based payments toward digital, which could leave out certain businesses and consumers that cannot afford to upgrade. By using Mastercard's technology and consulting services, the bank plans to develop products that reach a wider audience at less expense. Mastercard in the past year has pushed financial inclusion initiatives in dozens of countries, including the U.S., where it has extended grants to small businesses in underserved communities in Atlanta, Birmingham, New Orleans, New York and St. Louis. Mastercard also works with technology partners to extend access to digital tools for small businesses and oversees mentorship programs. —John Adams
Durbin adds new bipartisan sponsors to credit card bill ahead of hearing | American Banker— Sens. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., and Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, have added two new cosponsors to their bill that would overhaul the rules governing so-called "swipe fees." Banks have fiercely opposed the Credit Card Competition Act, which would require cards from banks with $100 billion or more of assets to offer merchants the choice of two unaffiliated card networks that aren't both Visa and Mastercard. The bill's sponsors say that it would lower fees and promote competition, while its detractors say that it's a giveaway to retailers and would increase costs for consumers. While the bill hasn't made any movement for months — and has failed to attach itself to must-pass legislation — it keeps adding cosponsors, increasing its chances of passing into law. "This shows that support is growing across the country and across the political spectrum for action that would bring competition to credit card swipe fees," said the National Grocers Association head lobbyist Chris Jones in a statement. Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., and Jack Reed, D-R.I., signed on to the legislation on Wednesday. The bipartisan pair join Sens. Peter Welch, D-Vt., and J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, who joined Durbin and Marshal last summer. "For years, Visa and Mastercard have taken advantage of their duopoly in the credit market to impose extreme fees on small merchants and retailers," said Hawley in a statement. "This legislation will grant Main Street relief from Wall Street's extortionate business practices." The new support comes days after Durbin asked the CEOs of Visa, Mastercard, United Airlines, and American Airlines to testify in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee, where Durbin serves as chairman. The hearing is tentatively scheduled for April 9. The chances of the bill eventually passing into law remain slim, experts said, amid a still-divided Congress. "I still think it's unlikely to become law," said Ian Katz, a managing director at Capital Alpha Partners. "The additional cosponsors and the hearing increase the bill's chances, but only marginally." "These developments will cause some anxiety in the industry, and the hearing creates headline risk," Katz said.
Will California's gun law place a target on card networks? ---The large U.S. card networks may be building a merchant code for firearm and ammunition purchases in California — a move which could draw fire from other states where conservative lawmakers have worked to block such codes. Visa, Mastercard and American Express are moving ahead with the transaction codes, according to CBS News, which reported these payment codes would enable the card companies to comply with a California law allowing banks to flag suspicious gun purchases and share that information with authorities. The law takes effect in 2025.The International Standards Organization created the codes to generally categorize a merchant's primary business as a gun seller. The payment companies had considered adding the codes in the buthalted implementing the codes in March 2023 following resistance from lawmakers in conservative states. Republican state representatives in Wisconsin have introduced a bill that would ban gun-specific payment codes. Visa, Mastercard and American Express did not provide comments by deadline. Discover, which was not named in the CBS story, also did not provide comment. California's law likely means the card networks would have to have different compliance policies in different states. That's not unusual, but it does place the companies in the middle of a political fight during an election year, given California's size and its ability to influence federal policy and laws in other states. "Our increasingly fraught and fractious politics are playing out at the state level with hard blue states like California and red states imposing their policy preferences on our payment system," said Eric Grover, a principal at Intrepid Ventures. "National payment systems are going to have to navigate a patchwork of conflicting state-level requirements."Payment networks and processors will be able to manage the differences, but it will increase the cost and complexity of running their businesses, Grover said. He predicted that policymakers in liberal states such as California and New York will increase tracking and the burden on payments for firearms. "Many pro-Second Amendment red states will ban or limit such tracking," Grover said. California's law could influence policy elsewhere. There has been a link between California's early actions on consumer protection regulations and subsequent actions by other states and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, according to said Stewart Watterson, a strategic advisor at Datos Insights.
Do fintechs for kids do enough to protect their privacy? - The movement to protect children's privacy online is intensifying. But efforts at the federal level, including proposed changes to the Children's Online Privacy Protection rule, or COPPA, typically do not extend to fintechs oriented towards families with children and teens.The Federal Trade Commission's proposed changes to COPPA, which are open to public comment until March 11, would tighten data retention limits, require a separate opt-in to disclose data to third parties, and have operators maintain a written children's personal information security program, among other updates, for websites and online services that collect personal information from children under the age of 13. There are also efforts in Congress tracing back to 2023 to achieve similar goals, including the Kids Online Safety Act, introduced by Senator Richard Blumenthal, and "COPPA 2.0," reintroduced by Senators Edward Markey and Bill Cassidy in May, which would prohibit internet companies from collecting personal information from users under the age of 17 without their consent.In general, "The most mindful of services want some assurance that there is a parent setting up the account on behalf of the kid from whom the service will be collecting personal information." said Phyllis Marcus, a partner at law firm Hunton Andrews Kurth.The question of how well fintechs oriented toward families with children align with the spirit of these laws is an open question to some privacy advocates. Companies such as Greenlight, GoHenry,Step, Till Financial and Goalsetter have created apps that help children spend using customizable debit cards, and save toward their goals, under the supervision of their parents. Their structures and privacy policies typically fall under the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act rather than COPPA, because parents are ultimately signing up for these accounts rather than their children. But privacy advocates are concerned about these companies' practices and what they mean for young users at the cusp of a long financial life.When COPPA emerged in 1998 and GLBA was enacted a year later, "you didn't have a lot of kids with debit or credit cards and you definitely didn't have digital wallets," said Rick Lane, a volunteer advisor to child safety groups and CEO of Iggy Ventures, which invests in social impact startups. "In a cashless society, we are no longer anonymous like we used to be."His concern is that with the growth of artificial intelligence, entities can combine multiple data points about children, including financial transactions and social media, to form "robust dossiers" on their habits and purchases. Children are especially vulnerable to a ruined credit history if their personal information is leaked in a data breach.Chester takes issue with the sites' lack of transparent privacy policies as well."You shouldn't have to scroll down to the bottom of the page and spend time looking for them," said Chester. "They need to make clear up front [their] data collection practices, how they use [data] for marketing and advertising, their partnerships, and what their partners do with data."
Valley National Bank, heavy on CRE, is confident despite investor worry - Few banks are as concentrated in commercial real estate as New Jersey-based Valley National Bancorp, whose stock has once again hit trouble as investors fret about real estate loans. The bank's stock price, which fell sharply during last year's banking crisis, has tumbled 17% since turmoil hit the neighboring regional lender New York Community Bancorp. But executives at Valley, along with analysts who follow the bank, note that its loans are more diversified than New York Community's apartment-heavy portfolio and that it has a solid track record at keeping losses contained. "Not all CRE portfolios are created equally," Travis Lan, Valley's deputy chief financial officer, said in an interview. The bank acknowledges its high concentration in commercial real estate, a constant source of investor angst as some offices sit empty and other types of buildings struggle with rising interest rates and costs. Valley is among the few regional banks — New York Community is another — where commercial real estate loans make up more than 300% of total capital, a threshold that triggers additional regulatory scrutiny. One problem at New York Community is that its real estate portfolio is largely made up of rent-regulated multifamily buildings, a sector that's struggling as high interest rates intersect with New York state's stricter rent increase rules. The Long Island bank, reportedly facing pressure from regulators, recently took steps to bolster its position and has since seen a more than 50% drop in its stock price. Valley's rent-regulated portfolio is just $420 million, or less than 1% of its total loans. CRE-related loans make up around half of Valley's portfolio, which consists of a mix of apartments, retail buildings, offices, industrial buildings and health care facilities. Its portfolio is largely in New Jersey, New York City, elsewhere in New York state and in Florida, where Valley expanded years ago to diversify its footprint. No segment of CRE has struggled more than the office sector, which has been hit particularly hard by remote work, as floors of office buildings sit empty. And few cities are seeing that issue play out more acutely than New York City. But Valley has largely stayed away from the big office towers in Manhattan that are facing steep declines in their value. Its office portfolio is instead largely made up of smaller buildings in suburban areas, and the bank's executives say the owners of those buildings remain in good shape. Even if those property owners do hit trouble, Valley's small-building focus makes it easier to turn a troubled office property into apartments or industrial centers, said Valley President Tom Iadanza. Government officials across the country have explored turning stressed office buildings into new housing, but they're finding that it's hard to make the math work. "You can't take a Midtown high-rise and convert it to anything else today. Financially, it just doesn't work," Iadanza said, contrasting that with Valley's office loans where "you can do a lot more because it's not as big a space."
Credit unions' CRA exemption helped sink Navy Federal -- Navy Federal's racial discrimination allegations are not going away without congressional andConsumer Financial Protection Bureau investigations and possibly some credit union legislative and regulatory changes. Had Navy Federal been subject to the Community Reinvestment Act, which it opposes more than anything except federal taxes, it may have avoided this reputational disaster.This is because CRA, like the canary in the fair lending coal mine, identifies disparity and other lending problems before they get out of control. CRA should cover credit unions, especially large ones and those acquiring banks. Until then, effective CRA self-regulation is better than no CRA regulation.How bad is the Navy Federal problem?Using the most recent 2022 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data, CNN found Navy Federal had the widest white/black disparity by far in mortgage approval rates of the 50 largest mortgage originators, including bank and nonbank lenders.Navy Federal approved more than 75% of white borrowers but less than 50% of Black borrowers, including applicants with similar incomes and debt-to-income ratios. Navy Federal's white/Black disparity was nearly three times the average for the three biggest CRA-covered banks.With nearly 5,000 credit unions, why is this a (Navy) federal case?First, with $165 billion in assets it's by far the nation's largest credit union, more than three times the size of its nearest competitor.Second, whenever one institution dominates an industry, there are "too big to regulate" questions. It's hard for a regulator to say no to its biggest "customer." I first raised this concern over 20 years ago with Washington Mutual, which dominated the thrift industry and its regulator's budget. Both that thrift and its regulator are history.Third, we expect more from the dominant industry player, especially in terms of fair lending. Every big bank, especially those over $10 billion in assets, should have an outstanding CRA rating. We should expect no less from the largest credit unions.Fourth, Navy Federal's 13 million members are mainly current and former military. Since roughlyhalf are minorities, about 10% more than our population, fair lending must be a priority.Credit unions are subject to fair lending laws but not CRA. Examiners evaluate and publicly rate bank lending and community development performance. This hopefully ensures banks are serving their entire community, including low- and moderate-income areas and households.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 12 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Application activity was weaker last week, as mortgage rates moved higher across the board. The 30- year fixed mortgage rate was up to 6.87 percent – the highest rate since early December 2023,” “Purchase applications remained subdued as elevated rates continue to add to affordability challenges along with still-low existing housing inventory. Refinance applications declined and remained depressed, with rates still higher than a year ago.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.87 percent from 6.80 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 12% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up from the lows in late October and early November, but still at the lowest level during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and even with some recent minor increases, activity is barely off the bottom.
Housing February 1th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.5% Week-over-week, Up 11.4% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.5% week-over-week. I expect inventory to bottom in February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of February 9th, inventory was at 495 thousand (7-day average), compared to 497 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up 99% from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 11.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 8.7%), and down 39.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week also down 39.1%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
It Sucks Being a Retailer in January and February. But Do Retail Sales Show Consumers Cut Back? -- Wolf Richter - January and February are the worst months of the year for retail sales overall. December is the best month of the year. In December, people go on the final stretch of the holiday buying binge. In January, gift-buying is over, and retailers get the returns (negative sales). In January, retail sales plunge from December. For department stores, sales in January collapse by nearly 50% from December, and this happens every year. Other retailers see less of a drop. Overall retail sales have historically plunged by 15% to 22% in January from December. In January 2024, retail sales plunged by 16.6% from December. That was a bigger plunge than in January 2023 (-15.2%), but a smaller plunge than in January 2022 (-16.9%), and quite a bit smaller than in the years before the pandemic (between -18% and -22%). All annual low points in the chart are Januarys: It happens every year, so massive seasonal adjustments try to iron it out. In terms of economic reporting, retail sales are massively down-adjusted in December, with the result that seasonally adjusted retail sales in December (red in the chart below) are a lot lower than not seasonally adjusted retail sales, which spike to their annual high in December (blue). Conversely, in January, seasonally adjusted retail sales are massively up-adjusted. And if nothing out of the 5-year average happens – no worse than an average winter storm, for example – the seasonal adjustments smoothen out December and January. If a worse than 5-year average winter storm blankets a bigger-than-average part of the country, and more than average people stay at home instead of buying stuff, then the seasonal adjustments are off. Not seasonally adjusted, retail sales in January plunged by 16.6% from December, to $642 billion ( = actual retail sales), but they were up by 2.0% year-over-year. Seasonally adjusted, retail sales dropped by 0.8% from December, to $700 billion ( = $642 billion in actual sales + $58 billion in seasonal adjustments). That seasonally adjusted total was up by 0.6% from the seasonally adjusted total in January 2023. The two biggest retailer categories are New & Used Vehicles Dealers and Parts stores with $119 billion in actual sales in January, and Nonstore Retailers (mostly ecommerce) with $115 billion in January. Together they accounted for 36.5% of total retail sales. But their seasonal patterns are different. For auto dealers, the best month of the year is typically in the spring, March, April, or May. Decembers are a middle-of-the-road month. And Januarys are the worst. Not seasonally adjusted, sales at auto dealers and parts stores rose by 1.3% in January year-over-year. But price declines have hit dollar-sales: The CPI for new and used vehicles in January dropped by 1.1% from December, and was down by 1.6% from a year ago, on a plunge in used-vehicle prices and flat new-vehicle prices, and we’ll get to that in a moment. For nonstore retailers (mostly ecommerce), the best month by far is December, and January or February is usually the worst. Ecommerce has also experienced price declines across many of the goods categories sold at these retailers: Retailers sell goods, not services, and inflation in the US has shifted from goods to services in 2022, and many goods prices have been falling and continued to fall in January, as the latest CPI data this week showed. Prices of durable goods have been falling since 2022. In January, the CPI for durable goods fell by 0.5% from December and was down by 1.6% from a year ago. This includes motor vehicles, appliances, electronics, furniture, etc. Declining prices reduce dollar-sales, just like rising prices increase dollar sales. But adjustments for inflation compensate for those price changes. So adjustments for this deflation in these categories push up the inflation-adjusted retail sales in these categories.
BLS: CPI Increased 0.3% in January; Core CPI increased 0.4% -- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.2 percent in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase. The food index increased 0.4 percent in January, as the food at home index increased 0.4 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.5 percent over the month. In contrast, the energy index fell 0.9 percent over the month due in large part to the decline in the gasoline index. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January. Indexes which increased in January include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, and medical care. The index for used cars and trucks and the index for apparel were among those that decreased over the month. The all items index rose 3.1 percent for the 12 months ending January, a smaller increase than the 3.4-percent increase for the 12 months ending December. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.9 percent over the last 12 months, the same increase as for the 12 months ending December. The energy index decreased 4.6 percent for the 12 months ending January, while the food index increased 2.6 percent over the last year. The change in both CPI and core CPI were above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.5% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.5% in January -The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.5%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.9% (unchanged from 4.9% in December), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.7% (down from 3.8%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.9% (unchanged from 3.9%). Core PCE is for December was up 2.9% YoY, down from 3.2% in November.Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. "Used cars and trucks" and "motor fuel" decreased at a 33% annual rate in January. Rent and Owner's equivalent rent are still very high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be much lower,
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter - Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 3.6% YoY. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through January 2024. Services were up 5.0% YoY as of January 2024, unchanged from 5.0% YoY in December. Services less rent of shelter was up 3.6% YoY in January, up from 3.4% YoY in December. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -1.6% YoY as of January 2024, down from -1.2% YoY in December. Commodities less food and energy commodities were down 0.3% YoY in January, down from up 0.1% YoY in December. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through January) and housing from the PCE report (through December 2023) Shelter was up 6.1% year-over-year in January, down from 6.2% in December. Housing (PCE) was up 6.4% YoY in December, down from 6.7% in November. This is still catching up with private data. The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter continued to rise in January, increasing 0.6 percent and contributing over two thirds of the monthly all items increase." Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% YoY in January, unchanged from 2.2% in December.
Beneath the Skin of CPI Inflation, January: Powell’s Gonna Have a Cow when he Sees the Spike in “Core Services” Inflation - Wolf Richter - We’ll start with the “core services” CPI (services minus energy services) because this is so crucial, and because Powell keeps talking about it. We have been concerned here for months about the refusal of core services inflation to ease off, and we’ve found the acceleration in the fall last year “very disconcerting.” But that’s how inflation is – it tends to serve up nasty surprises. And now it did. “Core services” CPI jumped by 0.66% in January from December, or by 8.2% annualized (blue). In this inflation cycle, only three months were worse (April, June, and September 2022). It includes housing, insurance, health care, subscriptions, etc., but not energy services. Core services is where consumers do the majority of their spending – and it’s re-heating from already hot levels. The three-month moving average, which irons out the month-to-month squiggles, jumped by 0.50%, or by 6.2% annualized (red), the worst since March 2023. All this according to the CPI data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Inflation in January boiled down to this: Energy prices continued their plunge (-10.4% annualized in Jan. from Dec.). Prices of durable goods continued their decline (-5.4% annualized in Jan. from Dec.), on a plunge in used-vehicle prices. But food prices rose (+4.5% annualized in Jan. from Dec.). And “core services” were red hot (+8.2% annualized). “Core CPI,” a measure of underlying inflation that excludes food and energy products, accelerated to an increase of 0.39% in January from December, or 4.8% annualized (blue line), the highest since April last year. It was held down some by the decline in durable goods CPI, but pushed up more forcefully by core services CPI. The three-month moving average of core CPI accelerated to 4.0% annualized in January from December, the worst reading since June (red line). Overall CPI accelerated to an increase of 0.31% month-to-month, or 3.8% annualized, the worst reading since September. The BLS adjusted its seasonal adjustment factors last week going back five years, as it does every year at this time. These adjustments were relatively minor, with the effect of seasonally adjusted figures getting moved up a little in some months and getting moved down a little in other months. Everything here is based on the adjusted data. Year-over-year:
- “Core services CPI” re-accelerated to 5.4% (red).
- “Core CPI” rose by 3.9%, roughly the same as in the prior month (blue).
- Overall CPI decelerated to 3.1% (yellow), pushed down by the 4.3% plunge in energy prices and the 1.6% drop in durable goods prices:
Core CPI (blue) has hovered near the 4% line for the fourth month in a row. Core services CPI (red) has been in the same range around 5.4% for the fourth month in a row, as this inflation proves to be resilient:
PPI Inflation Spikes in Services and Finished Core Goods, Very Disconcerting - Wolf Richter The Producer Price Index for final demand services jumped by 0.57% in January from December, seasonally adjusted (+7.1% annualized), and by 0.65% not seasonally adjusted (8.1% annualized), according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So now there’s the sudden surge of inflation in services that producers use, after months of benign readings. Since the red-hot days of early 2022, there has only been one higher reading, in July 2023. Final demand services weigh 62.3% in the overall PPI. The surge in the services PPI was driven by a big jump in its biggest component: “Finished consumer services less trade, transportation, and warehousing,” accounting for 32.9% of PPI. It spiked by +1.0% month-to-month or 12.7% annualized. All of this month-to-month inflation data is very volatile and noisy with big ups and downs, and trend changes take some time to be confirmed, and one month isn’t enough. So we need to exercise some caution. But this was the first big jump in the services PPI in months and it parallels developments over the past few months in the CPI for services, and so the warning lights are blinking. On the consumer-side of the economy – the prices that consumers pay directly – the surge of services inflation in the CPI has been reheating for months and in January spiked from there. So now services inflation hit producers, not just consumers. And producers are going to try to pass it on. Finished core goods inflation suddenly reheats as well: The final demand PPI for finished goods less food and energy – which weighs 19.0% in the PPI – after months of benign increases, suddenly spiked in January by 0.40% or by 4.9% annualized. The spike is a breakout from the prior 7 months when the core goods PPI remained in the same benign range, after the long plunge from the 2021 spike. This is disconcerting because the whole disinflation momentum in consumer prices (CPI) last year was driven by drops in prices of durable goods (negative inflation or deflation) and the plunge in energy prices. This PPI data on finished goods is now throwing some cold water on the hopes that goods-deflation will continue, and will continue to hold down overall inflation measures:
LA Port Inbound Traffic Increased Year-over-year in January - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 1.6% in January compared to the rolling 12 months ending in December. Outbound traffic increased 0.2% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 21% YoY in January, and exports were up 2% YoY. In 2023, the Chinese New Year was in January, and this year it was in February - so the timing of the New Year probably boosted inbound traffic in January. In general, it appears port traffic is returning to the pre-pandemic patterns.
Boeing Plane Deliveries Fall 29% In January Amid Max Jet Crisis - Boeing's plane deliveries tumbled 29% in January - compared to the previous month, driven primarily by seasonal trends and fallout from a near-mid-air disaster of a fuselage panel that ripped off one of its 737 Max 9s. Last month, the company handed over 27 aircraft, marking its lowest delivery count since September, in contrast to 67 deliveries in December. As for Max jets, it delivered 25 aircraft, down from 44 in December. "New aircraft orders are light in the month, but are typically seasonally light early in any year, while new aircraft order backlog remains very large compared to supply," Goldman analysts wrote in a note. The analysts, led by Noah Poponak and Anthony Valentini, continued: "Deliveries slowed in January, in part due to seasonality and in part from Boeing slowing down the system to renew the focus on product quality." They expect the slowdown in January to be temporary as an "acceleration in output" will occur "in the near-term and through the rest of 2024." Here are Boeing's gross orders, cancellations, and ASC 606 adjustments for the 737, 777, and 787 planes.
Our On-Going Covid Pandemic and the Labor Market -- My previous round-up on Covid and “the economy” focused mainly on macro economic effects like GDP, or the total cost of Long Covid (“17% of pre-COVID US GDP”). In this post, I want to dig deeper into Covid and the labor market. First, in what may look like a diversion, I’ll look briefly at the January jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). (It’s not really a diversion, because I learn by writing, so to master these sources I must write about them. And read your commentary, of course. But please, readers, don’t fix on the jobs report! Move on down to the Covid material.) Finally, since I’m dependent now on the horridly crapified Google, I invite readers with sources I’ve missed to add them in comments. The labor market is a big, big topic, and I’m sure I haven’t got my arms around it yet.[1] Again: “This will in no sense be an exhaustive or even an expert post, but I hope it will serve you to at least create a coherent narrative about where we are, and even, perhaps, what to expect.” So first, I’ll look at that jobs report, then at two new large studies on Long Covid and labor market participation. Next, I will consider Long Covid as a mass disabling event. Finally, I’ll look at how changes in the labor market affect other aspects of the economy, like commercial real estate (CRE), and conclude. The BLS report on the “Employment Situation” (“jobs report”) is one of the most highly anticipated document drops in the world. From trading firm Pepperstone: The Employment Situation report, to use its official name, is by far the most important US, and global, economic indicator released every month. While its impact has waned over time, there is no other indicator to which FX, equities, and bonds typically display such a significant and violent reaction. And: The headline measure of the labour market report is the Change in Nonfarm Employment, often shortened simply to NFP. Importantly, NFP excludes agricultural workers, employees of non-profit organisations, and serving military personnel, meaning that the data typically accounts for around 80% of the entire US workforce at a given time. To collate the data, the BLS use the aforementioned establishment survey, surveying around 130k businesses on a monthly basis. Furthermore, the NFP metric is a seasonally adjusted data point.
Sleeping Our Way to Being Productive - Sleep is key to our physical and mental health. It also affects people’s employment and productivity. This column explores how the amount of weekly sleep influences employment, productivity, and the income of individuals in Germany. Each additional hour of sleep per week increases the probability of employment by 1.6 percentage points and weekly earnings by 3.4%. Sleep is partly the product of both public and private decisions, and can be incentivised so that the negative economic effects of not sleeping enough are more salient to individuals.
Watchdog blames Bureau of Prisons ‘deficiencies’ for 187 deaths by suicide A new report by the Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General blames “deficiencies” within the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) for 187 deaths by suicide over a eight-year period.The report, released Thursday, came after reviewing 344 inmate deaths from 2014 to 2021 and finding that 187 — more than half — died by suicide. The report was led by Department of Justice Inspector General Michael Horowitz. Horowitz found that “a combination of recurring policy violations and operational failures contributed to inmate suicides.” The inspector general’s office “identified several operational and managerial deficiencies” that created unsafe conditions for inmates prior to or at the time of their deaths. The 344 reviewed deaths were divided into four categories: homicide, suicide, unknown factors and accident. More than half of suicides involved inmates in single cells or housed in a cell alone, which increases suicide risk, according to the report. The report stated that Bureau of Prisons can help prevent some suicides by “complying with existing policies.” It also followed up on the reviews of the deaths of Whitey Bulger and Jeffrey Epstein.The probe concluded that weapons and contraband drugs played a role in nearly one-third of inmate deaths. Overdoses caused 70 inmate deaths, according to the report. Operational challenges contributed, as “staffing shortages; an outdated security camera system; staff failure to follow BOP policies and procedures; and an ineffective, untimely staff disciplinary process ― were contributing factors in many of the inmate deaths.” The Office of the Inspector General made 12 recommendations, and Bureau of Prisons agreed to all of them.
Case of measles detected at Broward elementary school - - On Friday, Broward Schools confirmed a case of the measles at a county school. A Broward County Public Schools schools official said in a statement: "The health, safety and welfare of our students and staff are always our priorities. The District is working closely with the Florida Department of Health in Broward County regarding the case of measles at Manatee Bay Elementary School." "The school's leadership is also in communication with families regarding the situation and taking all necessary precautions in conjunction with the health department's guidance." According to a county vaccine study, Manatee Bay Elementary's vaccination rate is 89.31%. According to Broward County Public Schools data for this academic year, 23 schools at the kindergarten level fall below 80% of fully vaccinated students. Homeschooling, charter, and private schools rank in the bottom nine out of 165 on the list. Manatee Bay Elementary is located at 19200 Manatee Isles Dr, in Weston. This is a developing story and will be updated as soon as more details become available.
Trends in Educational Attainment in the U.S. Labor Force - The first graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older) through January 2024. Note: This is an update to a post from a few years ago.Unfortunately, this data only goes back to 1992 and includes only three recessions (the stock / tech bust in 2001, and the housing bust/financial crisis, and the 2020 pandemic). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate, with the lowest rate for college graduates at 2.1% in January, and highest for those without a high school degree at 6.0% in January.All four groups were generally trending down prior to the pandemic. And all are close to pre-pandemic levels now (less than high school is a little higher than pre-pandemic). This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed". This brings up an interesting question: What is the composition of the labor force by educational attainment, and how has that been changing over time?Here is some data on the U.S. labor force by educational attainment since 1992. Currently, over 64 million people in the U.S. labor force have a bachelor's degree or higher. This is over 44% of the labor force, up from 26.2% in 1992. This is the only category trending up. "Some college", "high school" and "less than high school" have been trending down. Based on current trends, probably half the labor force will have at least a bachelor's degree sometime next decade (2030s). Since workers with bachelor's degrees typically have a lower unemployment rate, rising educational attainment is probably a factor in pushing down the overall unemployment rate over time. Also, I'd guess more education would mean less labor turnover, and that education is a factor in lower weekly claims.A more educated labor force is a positive for the future.
Democrats Fail America's Youth As Dozens Of Schools In Illinois & Maryland Have Zero Kids Proficient In Math - "Democrats always congratulate themselves on being the only party truly concerned with education, especially of the underprivileged, and regularly attack conservatives and Republicans for their "callous indifference." The Democratic Party Platform, presenting itself as a savior of the underclass, calls for billions of dollars in "bold new investments" by federal and state governments to make good public schools available to every child, "no matter what zip code they live in,"" an excerpt from the "Shame of the Schools" book read. Despite Democrats plowing tens of billions into public K-12 education, schools across the nation are failing in their core mission to educate. The answer by Democrats for failing schools is to spend, spend, spend. However, the evidence of Democrats spending into oblivion on education, yielding positive results for the future generation, has yet to materialize: "The average test scores for U.S. 13-year-olds have dipped in reading and dropped sharply in math since 2020, according to new data from National Assessment of Educational Progress."The average scores, from tests given last fall, declined 4 points in reading and 9 points in math, compared with tests given in the 2019-2020 school year, and are the lowest in decades. The declines in reading were more pronounced for lower performing students, but dropped across all percentiles," NPR reported. In Maryland and Illinois, two states controlled by radical Democrats, evidence is mounting that progressives are failing to educate the youth. Independent research firm Wirepoints found that, shockingly, 53 schools in Illinois had zero students proficient in math at grade levels. The state spends $40.6 billion on K-12 education or $21,750 per student - some of the highest in the nation. Not a single student can do math at grade level in 53 Illinois schools. pic.twitter.com/LMYxvD7oGq — Marina Medvin (@MarinaMedvin) February 6, 2024 And also read. Not a single student can read at grade level in 30 Illinois schools. pic.twitter.com/0fIfgDyzaJ — Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) February 6, 2024 Similarly, investigative journalist Chris Papst of Fox45 News' Project Baltimore found last year that 23 Baltimore City schools did not have a single student proficient in math at grade level. Again, another school district with a massive education budget but higher spending doesn't result in better student outcomes.
A wireless CEO says it’s time to ban phones in classrooms --Want to know the worst kept secret in Silicon Valley? The leaders of the biggest technology companies in the world don’t let their kids use technology, especially in school.As an MIT psychologist explained, it’s because tech titans are especially aware of the negative effects on young minds still in their formative stages. While all “screens” present a double-edged sword in the learning environment, it’s the students’ own phones that have become most problematic.This issue is personal for me because I have spent my career working to democratize access to mobile technology. As the founder and CEO of two mobile operators, my professional goal is to provide affordable mobile connection to as many people as possible. Which is why my next statement may seem strange, but I am a father first and a businessman second.I support a nationwide ban on mobile phone use by students during school hours.The negative effects of phone use and social media on youth mental health are now well documented, and Mark Zuckerberg’s recent mea culpa in front of Congress is validation that these companies know they have a serious problem on their hands.But the problem of phones in schools is even more fundamental — it is detrimental to learning itself. A recent piece in the Atlanticshows that the most comprehensive global benchmark of academic performance has been declining since 2012 across all countries. The study concluded that screen device usage was a major reason for this drop, and that the amount of time students spent on screens had a significantly negative effect on academic performance. For example, students who spent less than an hour a day on screen devices scored 50 points higher on math exams than those who spent more than five hours a day on devices.Australia instituted a nationwide ban on mobile phones in all public high schools and is now starting to see the benefits with better academic scores, more social interaction and improved student wellbeing. Countries like Belgium, France, Spain and the UK have gone the same route, and a recent United Nations report urged every country to enact similar restrictions.There has been a grassroots movement in America to do the same. In 2020, according to theNational Center for Education Statistics, 77 percent of schools in the U.S. had some kind of cellphone ban. States like California, Florida and Tennessee have allowed, but not mandated, public schools to limit the student use of smartphones. Some districts in Alabama, Colorado, Maryland and Ohio have also adopted restrictions.But a state-by-state and district-by-district approach is a patchwork solution. And social media companies are only part of the equation.Mobile carriers must speak with one voice and lobby Congress for a national law. It is our ethical and moral responsibility to recognize K-12 schools as places where mobile phones can have a detrimental effect.
Pentagon Secretly Institutionalized DEI In Its K-12 Public Schools - In a Congressional hearing last spring, Gil Cisneros, then-Under Secretary for Military Readiness, announced that the Pentagon was closing its newly formed Office of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion within its K-12 school system and reassigning its controversial DEI chief after a ten-month internal investigation. The Pentagon’s climb-down was a big win for OpenTheBooks.com. We had worked alongside whistleblowers, journalists, other investigative non-profits, and ranking members of Congress to expose alleged conflicts of interest, violations of military ethics policies, and radical ideologies being forced on the kids of servicemen and servicewomen.Today, we are announcing Cisneros was actually faking. The radical curriculum was not dismantled. Instead, it was stealthily embedded into the lesson plans and classrooms throughout the entire school system.The Pentagon, under Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, is preventing details of their DEI policies from coming to light by abusing the Freedom of Information Act. They bamboozled the public with window dressing in Congressional hearings while forcing woke extremism on the roughly 70,000 children of our military service members.It’s critical that taxpayers understand the scope of the DEI philosophy within the DoD’s schools – deployed servicemembers often have no alternative but to use the Pentagon-run school system, called the Department of Defense Education Activity (DoDEA).DOD relentlessly promotes DEI-ideologies to school children of serving families through educational contractors with millions of dollars of taxpayer funding.
Teammates put peanuts in allergic student’s locker. School district says it wasn’t bullying - — Carter’s mother dreads getting calls about his allergy. When he was a baby, his family discovered he was allergic to peanuts. Now that he’s a teenager, he doesn’t leave his house without AirPods — and an EpiPen in his pocket. His mom carries multiple EpiPens in her purse. She says he would have minutes to react if the dust and oils from the nuts came into contact with his mouth or eyes. During one of Carter’s first football games as a varsity player at Lake Travis High School, his mom got a call from another parent, who told her some of his teammates put peanuts in his locker. “He was already on his way to the game,” said his mother, Shawna Mannon. “I don’t know if he’s OK. I just need to know what is going on.” Despite what happened in the locker room, he played in the game. Afterward, he told his mom about how peanuts fell from his jersey hanging in his locker. He told her how he quickly went to wash his hands before touching his face. And how hives had already started to crawl up his arm. She said she could still see the hives as he told her the story. “I think the hardest part was, one, it was his teammate. You know, you have this brotherhood and football, and it was disappointing that it was his teammate,” Mannon said. She later found out his teammates knew about the severity of his allergy before filling his locker. “A couple of teammates on his varsity football team were asking about his allergy to peanuts and asked if it could kill him,” Mannon said. “He said yes, it absolutely could.” Shawna Mannon speaks in front of the school board in November 2023 (Lake Travis ISD Photo) More than a month later, Mannon stood before the Lake Travis school board in November. She was livid. The kids responsible were disciplined, but she expected it to be to a different level. They were benched from some football games. She was told the district’s athletic director and head football coach were determining the discipline. The district said it worked with other law enforcement agencies and consulted the assistant district attorney’s office, but ultimately, the school district’s police department decided criminal charges were not warranted.
Protecting the Most Benign Institution (Our Public Library) - Name any public institution — the U.S. military, say, or a county welfare office – and it’s bound to have its negative aspects. Maybe you appreciate that the military is one of the most racially integrated bodies in the country. At the same time, perhaps you’re distressed by its recent turn to U.S. universities as a locus for the development of A.I.-powered autonomous lethal weaponry. Perhaps you appreciate that your county welfare office helps people get access to benefits they’re entitled to like SNAP (formerly food stamps) and health insurance. At the same time, you may not admire the mental and emotional burden the welfare system places on people working to secure those benefits or the racial animus and disrespect they may encounter in the process. I’d like to argue that there is, however, one institution that’s almost entirely benign: the public library. As I wish one could say about our medical system, it does no harm (though many right-wingers disagree with me, as we shall see). What could be more wonderful than a place that allows people to read books, magazines, and newspapers for free? That encourages children to read? That these days offers free access to that essential source of information, entertainment, and human connection, the Internet? It’s even a place where people who have nowhere to live — or who are regularly kicked out of their homeless shelters during daylight hours — can stay dry and warm. And where they, too, can read whatever they choose and, without spending a cent — no small thing — use a bathroom with dignity. You might think that an apparently harmless public good like a library would have no enemies. But in the age of Trump and his movement to Make America Grotesque Again, there turn out to be many. Some are “astroturf” outfits like the not-even-a-little-bit-ironically named Moms for Liberty. M4L, as they abbreviate their name, was founded in 2021 in Florida, originally to challenge Covid-era mask mandates in public schools. They’ve since expanded their definition of “liberty” to include pursuing the creation of public school libraries that are free of any mention of the existence of LGBTQ people, gender variations, sex, or racism. In effect, the freedom they are seeking is liberation from the real world. You won’t be surprised to learn that M4L supported Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’s 2022 and 2023 “Don’t Say Gay” laws, which outlaw any discussion of sexual orientation or gender identity in public schools, while making it extremely easy for parents or other citizens to demand the removal of books they find objectionable from school libraries. Copycat laws have since been passed in multiple states, including Tennessee where a school district banned MAUS, the bestselling Pulitzer Prize-winning graphic novel about the Holocaust, from its curriculum, thanks to eight now-forbidden words and a drawing of a naked mouse. (In doing so, it also drove the book back onto national bestseller lists.) One Florida school district chose to play it especially safe, not limiting itself to removing commonly banned books like Push by Sapphire, the 1970s anti-drug classic Go Ask Alice, and Ann Frank’s Diary of a Young Girl. According to CBS News, “Also on the list are ‘Merriam-Webster’s Elementary Dictionary,’ ‘The Bible Book,’ ‘The World Book Encyclopedia of People and Places,’ ‘Guinness Book of World Records, 2000,’ ‘Webster’s Dictionary and Thesaurus for Students,’ and ‘The American Heritage Children’s Dictionary.’” I guess the book banners don’t want to risk kids encountering any words they disapprove of in a dictionary. Contemporary book-banning efforts extend beyond school libraries, where reasonable people might differ (a little!) about what books should be available to children, to public libraries, where book banners seek to keep even adults from reading whatever we choose. EveryLibrary, an anti-censorship organization, keeps a running total of active “legislation of concern” in state legislatures that relates to controlling libraries and librarians. They maintain a continually updated list of such bills (the number of active ones changed just as I was exploring their online list). As of today, they highlight 93 pieces of legislation moving through legislatures in 24 states as varied as Idaho and Rhode Island.In 2024, they are focusing on a number of key issues, including “bills that would criminalize libraries, education, and museums (and/or the employees therein) by removing long-standing defense from prosecution exemptions under obscenity laws and/or expose librarians to civil penalties.” In addition to protecting libraries and their employees from criminal prosecution for stocking the “wrong” books, they are focusing on potential legislation that could restrict the freedom of libraries to develop their collections as they wish, as well as bills that would defund or close public libraries altogether. Sadly, as those 93 active bills indicate, in all too many states, libraries are desperately under attack.Legislation pending in Oklahoma offers an interesting example of the kinds of bills moving through statehouses around the country. The p roposed “Opposition to Marxism and Defense of Oklahoma Children Act of 2024,” unlike some bills in other states, is not concerned with excising specific offerings from Oklahoma’s library shelves. Rather, it focuses on a key organization, the American Library Association (ALA), which, since 1876, has existed to promote and support librarians. One of the ALA’s most important activities is the accreditation of library schools, where future librarians study their craft.
The days of optional SAT scores may be coming to an end - Are standardized tests poised for a comeback? Dartmouth College announced this week it would be reinstating its requirement for applicants to submit scores from the SAT or ACT, a mandate that it and hundreds of other U.S. schools had dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the celebration from some students and academics when schools nixed required SAT scores, Dartmouth says the results of an internal study showed they were actually helpful for constructing the best incoming class. Experts are divided on whether the Ivy League member’s decision could have a domino effect on other elite institutions — as well as if these scores are a good indicator for matriculating students. Critics say requiring the scores offers an advantage to students who already have others. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Georgetown University have also brought back testing requirements. Allen Koh, founder and CEO of Cardinal Education, thinks there will be a “gradual” transition to requiring test scores again. “Given everything about the equity reasons for why they made the test optional, frankly, many of these institutions can’t go back on immediately,” Koh said. “It will take some time, but I believe that the overall trend over the next several years will move towards more and more schools,” he added. As Dartmouth said in its statement, many schools switched to optional test scores during the pandemic because it was difficult for students to go to a testing site at the height of COVID. The college said its internal study found “that our holistic admissions approach to identifying the most promising students, regardless of their background, benefits from a careful consideration of testing information as part of their application package.” “In particular, SAT/ACTs can be especially helpful in identifying students from less-resourced backgrounds who would succeed at Dartmouth but might otherwise be missed in a test-optional environment,” the statement said. Some experts, however, are skeptical of the results of that study, and the value of standardized tests for college applications in general. Josef Durand, an expert admissions consultant at Quad Education Group, said SAT scores “are a notoriously poor predictor of student success and student potential in college.” “It is well known by this point that GPA is a five times better — or at least a five times better — predictor of student success and student potential in terms of college and post-collegiate success,” Durand said. FairTest, an organization aimed at equitable assessments of schools and students, reports that more than 2,000 U.S. colleges are test-optional or test-free when it comes to SAT or ACT scores. “I hope that others don’t follow [Dartmouth] but, you know, there is a chance that other institutions that fancy themselves elite institutions might,”
Almost half of health-care workers witness racism toward patients: Survey – Nearly half of healthcare workers in the United States have seen a patient experience discrimination based on their race or ethnicity, according to a new survey from The Commonwealth Fund. The 3,000-person survey found that 47 percent of doctors, nurses, dentists, physician assistants and other health workers witnessed a racist incident toward a patient last year. Data show that both intrapersonal and structural racism negatively impact the mental and physical health of millions of people in the United States. Healthcare workers said Black patients were the most likely to be discriminated against because of their race when seeking or receiving care. According to the survey, 55 percent of healthcare workers said Black patients are very or somewhat discriminated against in the healthcare system. Fifty percent of healthcare workers said the same for Hispanic patients and 41 percent did so for Asian patients. Meanwhile, just 19 percent of workers said white patients are very and or somewhat discriminated against in healthcare. The survey also found that 44 percent of healthcare workers have witnessed discrimination or racism against a colleague. But the number of healthcare workers who witness discrimination against patients or colleagues based on their race or ethnicity is most likely higher than is reflected in the survey. This is because some healthcare workers might struggle to identify subtle expressions of racism or discrimination, according to Senior Vice President of Advancing Health Equity at The Commonwealth Fund Laurie Zephyrin. “Sometimes people may not have the language of seeing discrimination or racism play out and really know what to say it is,” she said. This happened at least once when The Commonwealth Fund conducted the survey, she noted. As part of the survey, the foundation held six focus group interviews with healthcare workers in 2022. When some focus group members said they had not witnessed any discrimination against a patient or a colleague, focus group leaders gave members a series of examples of racism or discriminatory practices. Some of those examples included hearing a patient speak negatively about a provider because of their race or ethnicity or witnessing a patient request a new provider based on their race, Zephyrin said. “When given those examples some of them said ‘oh yeah, I have observed negative comments or abusive behavior,’” she said.
US study highlights excessive antibiotic therapy for uncomplicated pneumonia The length of antibiotic therapy for US patients hospitalized with uncomplicated community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) has decreased but remains excessive for too many patients, researchers reported today in Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology.Using national data from MarketScan and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention evaluated length of therapy (LOT) annual trends among US adults hospitalized with uncomplicated CAP from 2013 through 2020. A total LOT of 7 days or more was considered likely excessive, since current guidelines suggest 5 days of antibiotic therapy for uncomplicated CAP.There were 44,976 uncomplicated CAP hospitalizations among patients aged 18 to 64 (MarketScan) and 400,928 among patients 65 and older (CMS). The median hospital stay for both cohorts was 3 days. After adjusting for patient and hospitalization characteristics, the proportion of patients with likely excessive antibiotic therapy decreased significantly in both cohorts. From 2013 through 2020, the proportion of uncomplicated CAP patients with a total LOT of 7 days or more fell from 68% to 51% (a 25% decline) among those ages 18 to 64 and from 68% to 50% (a 26% decline) among those 65 and older.While the 25% and 26% reductions exceed the recommended 20% reduction target for inappropriate antibiotic use in the 2014 US National Strategy for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria, the study authors say the fact that at least half of uncomplicated CAP patients in 2020 received more than 7 days of antibiotics indicates more work needs to be done.In particular, they point to excessive postdischarge antibiotic therapy for uncomplicated CAP, which has been highlighted in previous studies as a potential focus for antibiotic stewardship programs. The current study found that 62% to 63% of patients in both cohorts received likely excessive postdischarge antibiotic therapy in 2020.
Chinese study finds excessive antibiotic use for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - A large-scale, population-based study in China reports that chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients were nearly eight times more likely to use antibiotics than the general population and received nearly twice as many antibiotic prescriptions, researchers reported late last week in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.Using prescription data and survey responses from participants aged 40 years and older in a cohort of residents from Shanghai's Songjian District, researchers with Fudan University assessed correlations between COPD, the percentage of antibiotic use, and the average rate of prescribing of different types of antibiotics compared with the general population. While antibiotics are commonly used to manage acute exacerbations of COPD in China, there are concerns that some of this use is inappropriate and that frequent antibiotic use in COPD patients is creating a vicious cycle of antimicrobial-resistant infections that require more antibiotics.A total of 34,576 people were included in the study, 1,594 (4.6%) of whom were COPD patients. Over 6 years of follow-up, the percentage of antibiotic use for COPD patients was 98.4%, which was 7.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.24 to 11.85) times that for non-COPD patients after adjusting for potential confounders. The prescribing rate was 3,220 prescriptions per 1,000 person-years for COPD patients, which was 1.96 (95% CI, 1.87 to 2.06) times that for non-COPD patients.Macrolides, lincosamides, streptogramins, quinolones, and other beta-lactams were the most commonly used antibiotics by COPD patients. Except for aminoglycosides, both the percentage of antibiotic use and the rate of antibiotic prescribing for all antibiotics were increased in COPD patients, who were 1.34 (95% CI, 1.20 to 1.50) times more likely to be prescribed a maximum of two antibiotics and 2.77 (95% CI, 2.47 to 3.11) times more likely to use antibiotics intravenously. The study authors say the findings suggest COPD patients are a high-priority group for the management of antibiotic use in communities.
WHO updates list of medically important antibiotics for use in human medicine - The World Health Organization (WHO) last week updated its listof medically important antimicrobials for use in human medicine, adding new categories based on their importance in human medicine, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) risk, and the potential human health implications of non-human use. The WHO says the updated list, developed in collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Organization, the United Nations Environmental Programme, and the World Organization for Animal Health, was created to guide international, national, and subnational antimicrobial stewardship efforts and is intended to serve as a reference point for national regulators, policymakers in ministries of health and agriculture, physicians, veterinarians, and food-animal producers. Among the new categories in the updated list is "authorized for use in humans only," which includes drug classes and individual antibiotics that have not been used in food-producing animals and should not be used in food-producing animals in the future. This group includes anti-pseudomonal penicillins; carbapanems; third-, fourth-, and fifth-generation cephalosporins with beta-lactamase inhibitors, sideraphor cephalosporins (cefiderocol), aminoglycosides (plazomicin), and drugs used solely to treat tuberculosis. The medically important antimicrobials group, which includes drugs used both in humans and food-producing animals, is further divided into "highest priority critically important antimicrobials (HPCIA)," "critically important antimicrobials (CIA)," "highly important antimicrobials," and "important antimicrobials." Antimicrobials in this group were categorized using the WHO Essential Medicines List and AWaRE (Access, Watch, and Reserve) classification system. The criteria for inclusion in the first two medically important antimicrobial categories is whether the antimicrobial class is one of the limited available therapies or the sole available therapy to treat serious bacterial infections and if it's used to treat bacterial infections possibly transmitted from non-human sources (such as Salmonella and Escherichia coli). Among the classes categorized as HPCIA are third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins, quinolones, and polymyxins. The CIA category includes aminoglycosides and macrolides. Another new category, "authorized for use in animals only," includes antimicrobials for which there is no substantial evidence that their use could result in resistance to medically important antimicrobials.The ultimate aim of the document is to reduce or restrict the use of these drugs in non-human sectors in order to preserve their effectiveness. The WHO says the risk to human health is greatest if the antimicrobials listed as "authorized for use in humans only" are used in non-human sectors, with the risk and impact lessening progressively with use of agents from the other categories.The WHO says that while use of medically important antimicrobials in food-producing animals is the greatest concern because they are main source of AMR risk to people, use in aquaculture, companion animals, plants, and crops may also pose a risk.
New COVID shots sparse at nursing homes - Fewer than 4 in 10 nursing home residents and just 15 percent of staff have received the latest COVID-19 shot, according to a new analysis of federal data, despite more than one-fifth of all U.S. COVID-19 deaths occurring in long-term care facilities. According to the analysis from KFF, the percentages vary widely across states and even across different facilities. Uptake of the latest shot among residents ranged from 20 percent in Arizona to 63 percent in Vermont and North Dakota. Nonprofit nursing homes tended to have more residents and staff vaccinated than for-profit facilities, though the report noted rates of vaccine uptake for staff were low in all types of facilities. The staff uptake ranged from 5 percent in Arkansas to 51 percent in Washington D.C. In 42 states, fewer than 20 percent of staff have received the most recent vaccine. The analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data noted that in comparison, 50 percent of residents and 22 percent of staff had received the updated vaccine at the same point last year. “We know that there are significant, systemic challenges with vaccine reluctance. Overcoming them requires a collective endeavor by public health officials, other health care providers, and the public. This is truly a community endeavor,” said Katie Smith Sloan, president of industry group LeadingAge. In the initial vaccine rollout in late 2020, the federal government and private pharmacies worked together to prioritize nursing homes, bringing the shots into facilities and setting up vaccination clinics. But since the federal government stopped buying and distributing the vaccine, that responsibility shifted to the private sector. That’s meant nursing homes have needed to find the COVID shots on their own. According to KFF, federal vaccine clinics contributed to high initial vaccination rates among nursing facility residents, but without ongoing federal initiatives, that uptake may remain low and vary across facilities. It’s been more than a month since Biden administration officials met with long-term care leaders to express concern about low uptake and discuss ways to improve the numbers. Nursing home residents are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, but vaccination numbers have only improved incrementally since then. The KFF analysis only analyzed data as of Jan. 14, but the most recent CDC data show that as of Feb. 4, just 40 percent of residents and 7 percent of staff were “up to date,” though the low staff number was likely due to a change in data collection.
Study: COVID-19 raises risk of heart attack in HIV patients --A large study in Spain finds that COVID-19 is associated with a 30% increased risk of major cardiovascular events in people with HIV during the year following infection. The study is published in Clinical Microbiology and Infection.Using a population of people in Catalonia with HIV (PWH) who had a documented COVID-19 infection, plus PWH with no COVID infections, the authors of the study estimated the incidence rate (IR) of a first cardiovascular event (CVE) after COVID-19 during an average follow-up period of 243 days.Included were 4,199 PWH with and 14,004 PWH without COVID-19 infections, 82% of all study subjects were men, and the average age was 47. Overall, 211 PWH with COVID-19 and 621 without developed CVE, the authors said, with an IR of 70.2 and 56.8 per 1,000 person-years, respectively.COVID-19 was associated with a 30% increased subsequent risk of CVE (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.30; 95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 1.55). Risk was highest in the 6 months following acute infection, and there was no association with COVID-19 severity and subsequent CVE, suggesting that even mild to moderate infections increased the risk."Even while the absolute rates of CVE in PWH have significantly declined in recent years, they continue to have a 1.5-2-fold greater relative risk compared to individuals without HIV," the authors wrote. "Therefore, the confirmation that the incidence of major CVE is increased the year following COVID-19 in PWH, including those non-hospitalized or without prior CVE, deserves major awareness."The authors said reasons for the increased risk are unknown and multifactorial. Earlier studies have suggested PWH have elevated levels of T-cell and inflammatory markers after COVID-19.
Cases Of Debilitating POTS Condition Rise After COVID-19, But New Research Points To Possible Treatment - For the estimated 1 to 3 million Americans living with postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS), standing up can trigger a racing heartbeat, lightheadedness, and fainting that’s relieved only by sitting or lying down.But a new clinical trial offers a glimmer of hope for those desperate for relief. Researchers may have uncovered a novel, nonpharmaceutical way to manage this debilitating syndrome on the rise nationwide.POTS cases notably rose following the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccine rollout, both of which are known to impact heart health. Some evidence suggests that 2 percent to 14 percent of COVID-19 survivors are later diagnosed with POTS.A December 2022 study in Nature Cardiovascular Research found links between COVID-19, mRNA vaccines, and POTS. It revealed COVID-19 patients are five times more likely to develop POTS down the road than those who got POTS after vaccination.“Our results identify a possible association between COVID-19 vaccination and incidence of POTS,” the authors wrote. “Notwithstanding the probable low incidence of POTS after COVID-19 vaccination, particularly when compared to SARS-Cov-2 post-infection odds.”A March 2023 review of studies also suggested a “significant percentage” of COVID-19 patients developed POTS within six to eight months of infection, though the exact mechanisms connecting the two remain unclear.Led by Dr. Stavros Stavrakis of the University of Oklahoma (OU) College of Medicine, a new clinical trial published in JACC: Clinical Electrophysiology explored whether stimulating the vagus nerve—a key part of the parasympathetic nervous system—could relieve POTS symptoms.The vagus nerve starts in the brain, passes through the heart and lungs, and ends in the intestines. This nerve controls functions such as digestion, breathing, and heart rate. Targeting it could address a major POTS symptom: rapid heartbeat upon standing.
Antibody combo Evusheld did not improve COVID outcomes in small trial Despite a substantial increase in neutralizing antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 at days 3 and 8, the monoclonal antibody combination drug Evusheld did not significantly improve hospitalized COVID-19 patients' clinical status or accelerate viral clearance in a phase 3 DISCOVERY European trial.The results of the trial were described yesterday in a research letter in the Journal of Infection. Evusheld is composed of tixagevimab and cilgavimab (T-C) monoclonal antibodies (mABs), and the study included 399 participants, 214 of whom received Evusheld. A previous study, ACTIV-3-TICO, showed a significant reduction in mortality at day 15 in patients who received Evusheld as an intramuscular injection.Though there were no major safety events and no increased cardiovascular risks seen in the present trial, researchers found no significant differences in mortality or hospitalization among participants randomized to receive Evusheld and those who received standard care (not remdesivir).Both controls and cases in the trial had an approximate mortality rate of 15% at day 90.The researchers said the difference seen between the ACTIV trial and DISCOVERY may be due to variants: 40% of COVID infections in the DISCOVERY trial were caused by the Omicron variant, compared to the ACTIV trial, which was primarily during Delta variant dominance."In the ambulatory setting, and while ancestral strains were circulating, the administration of intramuscular T-C to treat SARS-CoV-2 infections significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization and death in patients at risk for disease progression, compared to placebo," the authors wrote, referring to yet another phase 3 trial, called TACKLE. "The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant and its multiple sub-lineages have proven to be more evasive than the ancestral strain or Delta variant to vaccines and therapeutic mABs, including T-C."
New COVID antiviral candidate linked to shorter symptoms -- Treatment with ensitrelvir, an oral SARS-CoV-2 3C-like protease inhibitor developed in Japan, shortened COVID-19 symptoms in people who received the medication within 3 days of symptom onset, researchers reported recently in JAMA Network Open In 2023, the drug—made by Shionogi—was authorized for emergency use in Japan and received a fast-track review designation from the US Food and Drug Administration. The randomized clinical trial took place between February 2022 and July 2022 when the Omicron BA.2 variant was circulating at clinical sites in Japan, Vietnam, and South Korea. The study population included mostly healthy people ages 12 to 69 years old who had mild to moderate COVID symptoms and a positive test for the virus. About 91% had previously received two doses of COVID vaccine. Researchers evaluated two different ensitrelvir doses given for 5 days against placebo. One dose was 125 mg given once a day (375 mg on the first day), and the other was 250 mg once daily (750 mg on the first day). Researchers followed the groups for 28 days, monitoring symptoms including runny nose, sore throat, shortness of breath, and cough, as well as any side effects. They saw a significant difference between the 125-mg dose and placebo, with treatment shortening symptoms by 1 day, from 5 days to 4 days. There were no serious adverse events, but people who took ensitrelvir had temporary reductions in their high-density lipoprotein levels. In the secondary analysis, treatment also reduced viral loads when compared to placebo.The team said more studies need to be done to assess efficacy in populations outside of Asia and in people who have a range of different risk factors.
Study: Older US adults who exercised prepandemic at lower risk of COVID infection, hospitalization --US adults aged 45 and older who were physically active before the pandemic were 10% less likely to contract COVID-19 and 27% less likely to be hospitalized if they were infected, a Brigham and Women's Hospital–led study suggests.The observational study, published today in JAMA Network Open, analyzed data on 61,557 adults with an average age of 76 years who are participants in three ongoing randomized clinical trials (Cocoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study, Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial, and Women's Health Study). Participants self-reported prepandemic demographic information, lifestyle factors, and time spent on physical activities such as walking, running, biking, and climbing stairs via questionnaire before December 31, 2019. From May 2020 to May 2022, respondents were sent a series of surveys asking about any COVID-19 diagnoses or hospitalizations.Based on US and World Health Organization physical activity guidelines, participants' self-reported physical activity levels were then categorized as inactive (0 minutes per week of moderate-intensity exercise), insufficiently active (60 minutes), or sufficiently active (150 minutes).A total of 70.7% of participants were women, 87.2% were White, 7.5% were Black, 2.3% were Hispanic, and 24.1% had a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher, indicating obesity. "Adherence to US guidelines of at least 150 min/wk of moderate to vigorous PA [physical activity] may help prevent or mitigate effects of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, type 2 diabetes, and other chronic conditions," the study authors noted. "Some health benefits of PA are attributable to the delay of age-related immunosenescence [waning of immunity], reduced low-grade systemic inflammation, and boosted immunity." "This large, unique study in older adults as they navigated the onset of the pandemic provides important support for physical activity in preventing COVID-19 infection and hospitalization that may extend more broadly to enhanced immune function and lessening vulnerability to infections," senior author Howard Sesso, ScD, MPH, associate epidemiologist at Brigham and Women's Hospital, said in a hospital news release.
Those hospitalized with COVID-19 later at risk for several key symptoms -- A study of about 3 million US adults and 675,000 US children reveals that hospitalized adults and children with a positive COVID-19 test had 17% and 18% increased odds, respectively, of being diagnosed as having one or more long-COVID symptoms 31 to 150 days after their positive test.The study, published in BMC Infectious Diseases, also showed that adults and kids have a 50% and 40% higher risk of having shortness of breath after recovery from COVID-19, respectively. With so many symptoms and conditions linked to long COVID, or post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), the authors of the study used electronic health record (EHR) data to track which specific symptoms were more likely to appear among adult and pediatric COVID patients compared to other hospitalized patients or patients with negative COVID tests. Data were collected from 43 sites across the United States from patients who had a SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test from March 1, 2020, through May 31, 2021. Hospitalization within 16 days of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 infection acted as a proxy for COVID-19 severity. The authors identified 3,091,580 adults aged 20 years or older, including 316,249 with a positive viral test and 2,775,331 with only negative viral tests. They also identified 675,643 children 19 years or younger meeting the inclusion criteria, including 62,131 with a positive viral test and 613,512 with only negative tests. The authors assessed a number of possible conditions from 1 to 6 months after COVID testing, including, in adults, mental health conditions, chronic kidney disorders, diabetes mellitus type 1 or 2, hematologic disorders such as venous thromboembolism, major cardiovascular events, neurologic disorders, and respiratory diseases. Both adult and children were assessed for common PASC symptoms, including fatigue or muscle weakness, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, cough, change in bowel habits, abdominal pain, headache, cognitive disorders, disorders of taste and smell, non-cardiac chest pain, heart rate abnormalities, sleep disorders, and muscle pain, the authors said. Hospitalized adults with a positive test had increased odds of being diagnosed as having three or more symptoms or fatigue compared with those testing negative, the authors found. Hospitalized adults with positive COVID tests were also at increased risk for being newly diagnosed as having type 1 or type 2 diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.17 to 1.33), hematologic disorders (aHR, 1.19), or respiratory disease (aHR, 1.44). "The condition with the highest incidence among hospitalized adults with a positive test was respiratory diseases (14%), compared to 7% incidence among patients testing negative," the authors wrote. "Hospitalized children with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test also were at increased odds of being diagnosed with symptoms, including shortness of breath, compared to those hospitalized children testing negative." Overall, COVID-positive adults and children who were hospitalized were more likely to have EHRs showing PASC. Among COVID-positive and -negative patients who were not hospitalized, there was little difference in PASC outcomes.
COVID patients 4 times more likely to develop chronic fatigue: CDC research -COVID-19 patients are at least four times more likely to develop chronic fatigue than those who have not been infected, according to a new study published by researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The researchers used electronic medical records from the University of Washington for their analysis and followed more than 4,500 adults for about 11 months after COVID-19 infection between February 2020 and February 2021. The researchers then compared the results with more than 9,000 adults who did not have a COVID-19 infection.“Increased awareness of fatigue and other [post COVID conditions] is warranted to enable patients to seek early care when needed. Further research is also warranted to investigate the causes and preventive measures for the severe outcomes associated with post-COVID fatigue,” according to the study.The researchers found that about 9 percent of COVID-19 patients developed fatigue after infection, and that such patients were 1.68 times more likely to develop fatigue and 4.32 times more likely to develop chronic fatigue, a subset of fatigue, than those who had not had the virus.Women and older adults were more likely to develop fatigue and chronic fatigue, according to the research. Women were 39 percent more likely to receive a fatigue diagnosis than men when adjusting for age and comorbidities. Those in “advancing age groups,” meanwhile, were more likely to receive a fatigue diagnosis than those 18 to 29 years old when adjustments were not made for sex and comorbidities, but when adjusting for those factors that elevated likelihood was found to be “no longer statistically significant.”COVID-19 patients who developed fatigue “had far worse clinical outcomes,” according to the study. Among those who developed fatigue, 25 percent were hospitalized during the post-acute period, while 13 percent of those who did not develop it were hospitalized.Those who developed fatigue also had a slightly higher elevated risk of dying, according to the study; 5 percent of those who developed fatigue died, while 2.3 percent of those who didn’t develop it did so, according to the research.
Research shows 1 in 10 infected pregnant women develop long COVID -New research presented at the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine’s (SMFM) annual meeting this week suggests that 1 in 10 pregnant women who contract COVID-19 during pregnancy develop long COVID. The study abstract is published in the American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology.The research is based on findings from a pregnancy cohort identified in the ongoing National Institutes of Health RECOVER initiative, which investigates long COVID in US adults and children.A total of 1,503 people in the pregnancy cohort who got COVID in pregnancy were followed to see if they developed long COVID. Participants were from 46 states and Washington DC. Fifty-one percent were fully vaccinated at the time of infection, and the average age at infection was about 32 years.Overall, 9.3% of women had long-COVID symptoms 6 months after contracting the virus (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.9% to 10.9%). The most common symptoms were post-exertional malaise (82%), fatigue (75%), and dizziness (62%).Long COVID in this cohort was associated with initial illness severity (the need for supplemental oxygen), obesity, and a history of depression and anxiety in pregnancy. Also, those who said they had difficulty paying their bills were at greater risk for long COVID.Long COVID was not associated with any one trimester of pregnancy. Compared with the non-pregnant arm of the RECOVER trial, which estimates that 23% of adults have symptoms 6 months following infection, the pregnant cohort had lower rates of long COVID. "The key takeaway for clinicians who are taking care of pregnant patients is that nearly 1 in 10 people who have COVID during pregnancy still have persistent symptoms six months later," said the study lead author Torri D. Metz, MD, MS, of the University of Utah Health in Salt Lake City, in an SMFM press release.
Studies spotlight cognitive issues, depression, fatigue in those with long COVID - Today in JAMA Network Open, a survey of 14,767 people shows that 57% of those with post–COVID-19 condition—or long COVID—said they experienced symptoms of a cognitive (thinking) deficit daily at least 2 months following infection, as well as symptoms of depression.Only 27% with prior SARS-CoV-2 infection who did not develop post–COVID-19 condition said they experienced cognitive symptoms as frequently.Also today, researchers publishing in Emerging Infectious Diseases demonstrate that people who have had COVID-19 are at four times greater risk of developing chronic fatigue compared with these who did not have COVID.The first study was based on a web-based survey conducted from December 22, 2022, to May 5, 2023. Among other questions on symptoms, participants were asked to rate on a 5-point scale how often they experienced the following over the previous week: slowed thinking, trouble concentrating, having to work hard to pay attention to avoid making mistakes, trouble getting started, trouble remembering (such as taking medicine or buying something), difficulty multitasking, and trouble making decisions. Participants were also asked to assess their mood and daily functioning, as well as to provide sociodemographic information.The survey included 1,683 people (11.4% of all respondents) who met the definition of post–COVID-19 condition (new or persistent symptoms at least 8 weeks following infection). Of those, 955 (56.7%) reported at least one cognitive symptom daily, including trouble concentrating (38.1%) and trouble with decision-making (25.3%)."Features associated with a greater number of daily symptoms included younger age and lower income," the authors said. The greatest number of cognitive symptoms were seen among those 18 to 24 years and 45 to 54 years. Those 65 years and older were least likely to report daily cognitive symptoms.
Long COVID incidence in US varies by state, highest in West Virginia - New state and territory surveillance data on long COVID in the United States shows the prevalence of long COVID exceeded 8.8% in seven states and was highest in West Virginia and lowest in the US Virgin Islands.The study is published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.Nationally, 6.4% of US adults reported ever having experienced long COVID (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.2% to 6.5%). The study was based on information taken from the 2022 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), a population-based cross-sectional survey.Long COVID was defined as new or persistent symptoms lasting 3 or more months after a COVID-19 infection.In general, prevalences of long COVID was lower in New England and higher in the South and West. Montana, Wyoming, and North Dakota all had prevalence rates ranging from 8.9% to 10.6%, as well. West Virginia had the highest rate at 10.6%.
Study: US hospitals transferred fewer patients amid COVID surges, potentially compromising care - US hospitals transferred fewer patients than usual to other acute-care facilities during caseload surges throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, which could have put some patients at risk, a National Institutes of Health (NIH)-led research team reports today in JAMA Network Open.Outgoing transfers included those from an emergency department or hospital ward to another acute-care facility. Patients are commonly transferred to another facility during patient surges to provide adequate care.The researchers analyzed data for adult patients at continuously reporting US hospitals in the PINC-AI Healthcare Database before the pandemic (January 2019 to February 2020) and during pandemic wave 1 (March to May 2020), wave 2 (June to September 2020), wave 3 (October 2020 to June 2021), Delta variant predominance (June to December 2021), and Omicron predominance (December 2021 to February 2022).Of 681 hospitals, 30.1% were rural, 69.9% were urban, 52.9% were small (fewer than 200 beds), and 47.1% were large (more than 200 beds). "Transferring patients to other hospitals because of inpatient saturation or need for higher levels of care was often challenging during the early waves of the COVID-19 pandemic," the study authors wrote. "Understanding how transfer patterns evolved over time and amid hospital overcrowding could inform future care delivery and load balancing efforts." A total of 1.3 million patient transfers occurred during the study period, 32.7% of them from rural hospitals. Overall, 21.7% of hospitals experienced high-surge weeks during the pandemic, while 15.1% did so before the pandemic, and 14.5% did so in both periods. The peak average patient daily census for any week was 412.0 cases (interpreted as caseload being 412% of hospital capacity), which also occurred during Delta predominance. Compared with before the pandemic (monthly range, 32,741 to 37,845 transfers), greater fluctuations in weekly transfers were observed throughout the pandemic (monthly range, 22,865 transfers in April 2020 to 38,961 in May 2021). Average weekly outgoing transfers per hospital stayed lower than the prepandemic average of 12.1 transfers per week for most of the pandemic, ranging from 8.5 transfers per week during wave 1 to 11.9 per week during the Delta wave. Despite increased COVID-19 transfers, hospital transfers for any indication declined during each national surge. Compared with the prepandemic baseline, outgoing acute care transfers at 99 high-caseload hospitals fell during wave 1 (−15.0%), returned to baseline in wave 2 (2.2%), and increased substantially in subsequent waves (19.8% in wave 3, 19.2% during Delta, and 15.4% amid Omicron). At the most-strained hospitals, outgoing transfers rose 15.4% to 19.8% amid the third, Delta, and Omicron waves (compared with before the pandemic). The observed increases were seen mainly at small urban hospitals, where transfers peaked at 48.0% in wave 3. "Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, study hospitals reported paradoxical decreases in overall patient transfers during each high-surge period," the researchers wrote. "Caseload-strained rural (vs urban) hospitals with fewer than 200 beds were unable to proportionally increase transfers." The low rate of transfers amid the pandemic may have compromised patient care, they said."Decreased overall patient movement during the pandemic and the inability to increase transfers from small but overcrowded rural hospitals may indicate patient safety and access to care issues that warrant identifying and overcoming barriers to transfer patients for care or capacity during future surges," they wrote.
CDC tracking BA.2.87.1 SARS-CoV-2 variant The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently announced that it is monitoring a newly identified SARS-CoV-2 variant called BA.2.87.1 from South Africa that has mutations that may pose a risk of immune escape, but so far there's no sign that it is spreading widely.South African scientists have identified nine BA.2.87.1 sequences in samples that were collected between September and December of 2023. No cases have been identified outside of South Africa. "The fact that only nine cases have been detected in one country since the first specimen was collected in September suggests it does not appear to be highly transmissible – at least so far," the CDC said in a February 9 statement.In South Africa, though, the cases were reported from three provinces over 3 months, suggesting that BA.2.87.1 can spread among people, the CDC said.The CDC said it is monitoring BA.2.87.1 because it has more than 30 changes in the spike protein compared to XBB.1.5, the variant covered by the current monovalent vaccine. The CDC said variants with multiple spike protein changes could increase the potential for immune escape from earlier infection or vaccination. Experience with BA.2.86 and its JN.1 offshoot was a reminder that a variant's ability to transmit can change quickly over time.BA.2.87.1 isn't fueling a detectable increase in South Africa's COVID cases, the CDC said. So far, it's not clear how well the current vaccine would protect against BA.2.87.1, but the group added that recent experience with the JN.1 variant suggests that the current COVID vaccine can help protect against a diverse range of variants.The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) is also tracking BA.2.87.1 as a variant under monitoring (VUM).
- The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is investing $515 million more in funding over the next 4 years to study long COVID, Director Monica Bertagnolli, MD, announced today. The support is in addition to the $1.15 billion Congress appropriated in 2021 to launch the Researching COVID to Enhance Recovery (RECOVER) Initiative. She said the added funding will focus on clinical trials of new interventions; better understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 affects each part of the body, with an eye on diagnosis and treatment; investigating the recovery trajectory, including how it affects underlying chronic illnesses; and maintaining support for research infrastructure.
- The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is in the process of revising its guidance for isolation after testing positive for COVID-19 to better align it with current recommendations for flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the Washington Post reported today, citing agency officials and an expert who is familiar with the discussions. Currently, the CDC recommends a 5-day isolation period after testing positive for COVID. The new recommendations are expected to use clinical symptoms to guide isolation, such as being fever-free for 24 hours without help from fever-reducing medication.
- The CDC yesterday weighed in on the recent detections of four new human H5N1 avian flu infection this year in Cambodia, noting that all of the patients had been exposed to sick poultry and that there is no sign of human-to-human spread. Three of the patients are children, one of whom died. The CDC outlined a few extra details beyond what was included in earlier reports. It noted that the third and fourth case-patients were siblings but lived in different households. Dead poultry were brought from the household of the fourth patient to that of the third patient, exposing both siblings. Genetic sequencing has identified the older H5N1 clade (2.3.2.1c) in two of the cases, and sequencing of the fourth case is under way. The CDC said more sporadic infections in humans can be expected in people with direct or close unprotected exposure to sick or dead poultry.
Data from China suggest no survival benefit of two antiviral drugs in elderly COVID patients An observational study in eClinicalMedicine suggests that the antiviral drugs azvudine and nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) were similarly ineffective in preventing death in elderly patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in China, although the authors acknowledge that the findings may be subject to confounding factors and bias.Azvudine has conditional approval for treatment of viral diseases such as COVID-19 and AIDS in China but isn't approved for use in the United States, where Paxlovid is approved for treatment of mild or moderate COVID-19 in high-risk adults.Researchers from the Chinese PLA General Hospital in Beijing evaluated the electronic medical records of 249 COVID-19 patients with an average age of 91.4 years hospitalized in December 2022 and January 2023. Of all patients, 128 received azvudine, 66 were given Paxlovid, and 55 received no antiviral. Average follow-up was 84 days."The proportion of severe illness and death caused by COVID-19 among the elderly is the highest among all age groups, and elderly patients are commonly accompanied by multi-disease and multi-reuse drugs," the study authors noted, adding that caution must be taken when prescribing drugs for these patients.A total of 77 patients (31%) died during follow-up. Neither antiviral demonstrated a survival benefit, with a Cox analysis of all-cause death showing a 0.73 risk of death in the azvudine group and 0.80 in Paxlovid recipients compared with no antiviral treatment. The researchers noted several potential reasons for the lack of clinical benefit, including the advanced age, chronic illness burden, and disease severity among participants and inadequate study power to detect differences."Finally, the cause of selection bias cannot be ruled out because patients with more severe clinical presentations may have been preferentially selected by clinicians to receive nirmatrelvir/ritonavir," they wrote. "In that case, patients who received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir would be expected to have worse outcomes, which could obscure a potential therapeutic benefit of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir."
Flu continues to rise in some US regions as COVID markers decline - Respiratory virus activity remains high across the United States, with flu activity up, especially in three regions, and COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) markers continuing to drop from high levels, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest updates. Overall, 27 jurisdictions reported high or very high respiratory virus activity last week, an increase from 25 the previous week, the CDC said in its weekly snapshot. In the first weeks of the near year, flu activity ebbed a bit but is rebounding in some regions, partly due to increasing proportions of influenza B.Overall, most markers held steady last week compared to the week before, but flu deaths declined, the CDC said in its weekly FluView report. Activity increased in the upper and central Midwestern regions, as well as in Middle Atlantic states.Test positivity remained stable, but influenza A proportions fell slightly while influenza B detections rose, mainly due to activity in the regional hot spots. Influenza B circulation often rises in the latter part of the US flu season. Of respiratory samples that were positive for flu at US public health labs, nearly 77% were influenza A and 23% were influenza B, about the same as the week before. Of subtyped influenza A viruses, 59% were 2009 H1N1, which has been the dominant strain, and 41% were H3N2. The CDC said it received reports of 8 more pediatric flu deaths, raising the season's total to 82. The deaths occurred between late January and early February. Five involved influenza B, and 3 were due to influenza A. Of two subtyped influenza A viruses, one was the H1N1 strain and the other was H3N2. For COVID, the CDC's main severity indicators—hospitalizations and deaths—showed a mixed picture. Hospitalizations were up slightly, by 0.8% compared to the previous week, with deaths down 6.9%. Early indicators continued a downward trend, with emergency department (ED) visits down 5.3%. ED visits are still highest in infants and older adults. Test positivity is at 9.3% nationally, down 0.6% from the week before. Test positivity is higher across the South than in other parts of the country. The CDC still classified wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections as high, and in its respiratory virus snapshot, it said levels are highest in the South but are falling. Also today, the CDC released its latest variant projections, which shows a further rise of JN.1, which now makes up 96.4% of samples.For RSV, activity is declining in many areas, and hospitalization levels are trending downward—though still elevated—for both young children and seniors.Similar to COVID, test positivity for RSV is also declining.
Even mild flu tied to double risk of heart attack, stroke in older patients - The risk of heart attack and ischemic stroke in patients aged 50 and older more than doubled in the 2 weeks after even mild influenza in those with few risk factors and more than quadrupled in high-risk patients with severe cases, with elevated risk persisting for 2 months, according to a self-controlled case series in The Journal of Infectious Diseases. Researchers in Valencia, Spain, assessed the link between flu infection diagnosed in the primary care or hospital settings and 90-day risk of heart attack and ischemic stroke in nearly 2.2 million older patients from January 2011 to December 2018. The study authors noted growing evidence that respiratory infections—particularly flu—can trigger or exacerbate cardiovascular diseases, the world's leading cause of death. Seven percent of participants had a flu diagnosis or test during the study period. A total of 5.5% of participants had at least one clinical flu diagnosis, and 1.7% were tested for flu at a hospital, with 30% positive results. Of the clinically diagnosed flu patients, 84 had a heart attack or ischemic stroke within 90 days and 1,618 did so during baseline (periods of no flu exposure). Stratification by risk subperiod revealed incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of cardiovascular events of 2.21 and 2.62 in the first 7 days and 8 to 14 days of infection, respectively. No significant increase was seen during days 15 to 29, 30 to 60, or 61 to 90 days after infection. Among patients with lab-confirmed flu, 48 cardiovascular events occurred in the next 90 days, and 558 occurred during baseline. The IRRs for cardiovascular events were 4.40, 5.09, 2.47, and 2.24 during 1 to 7, 8 to 14, 15 to 29, and 30 to 60 days, respectively. No significant increase was observed 61 to 90 days after infection. In patients with negative results, 153 cardiovascular events occurred in the 90 days after the flu test, and 1,467 occurred during baseline. The IRRs for cardiovascular events were 5.16, 4.19, 2.45, 2.55, and 1.68 during days 1 to 7, 8 to 14, 15 to 29, 30 to 60, and 61 to 90, respectively. The study results provide further evidence that while several pathogens are thought to increase cardiovascular risk through systemic infection and inflammation, the flu virus may have a more specific role in direct cardiac infection and endothelial dysfunction, leading to destabilization and rupture of existing atherosclerotic plaques, the authors said. "The transient increase of the association, its gradient after influenza infection and the demonstration by 4 different sensitivity analyses provide further evidence supporting causality," the researchers wrote. "This work reinforces the official recommendations for influenza prevention in at-risk groups and should also increase the awareness of even milder influenza infection and its possible complications in the general population."
Preterm infants at disproportionate risk for RSV hospitalization - A new meta-analysis in The Lancet of 64 global studies on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) burden shows that preterm infants face a disproportionately high burden of RSV-associated disease, accounting for 25% of RSV hospitalizations. The high burden was seen in the first 2 years of life. The authors reviewed studies published from 1995 through 2021 to estimate RSV-associated severe acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) incidence in the community, hospital admission, in-hospital mortality, and overall mortality among children younger than 2 years born prematurely.Prematurity was divided into two categories, early preterm (born at less than 32 weeks gestational age) and late preterm (32 to 37 weeks gestational age).They estimated that globally among premature infants in 2019, there were about 1.7 million (95% uncertainty range [UR], 1.4 million to 2 million) RSV-associated ALRI episodes, 533,000 RSV-associated hospital admissions, 3,050 RSV-associated in-hospital deaths, and 26,760 RSV-attributable deaths.Early-preterm infants had a significantly higher hospitalization rate (rate ratio [RR], 1.69 to 3.87) than that of all infants born at any gestational age. Late-preterm infants had a higher RSV-associated hospitalization rate but only during their first 6 months of life (RR, 1.93).The increased hospitalization risk carried into the second year for early-preterm infants: Though incidence rates were similar compared to all infants, RSV-associated hospitalization risk was significantly higher (RR, 2.26; 95% UR, 1.27 to 3.98) than in all infants and young children. Overall, preterm infants accounted for 25% of RSV-associated hospitalizations. Also of note, 92% of hospitalizations and 89% of in-hospital deaths were disproportionately clustered in developing countries in 2019. In a commentary on the study, David Torres-Fernandez, PhD, and Quique Bassat, PhD, of the University of Barcelona write that in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs), "These infections overload and saturate health-care systems during seasonal outbreaks and cause extensive economic resource consumption.""Current research and development of pharmaceutical products against RSV are still severely biased to their use in high-income countries," Torres-Fernandez and Bassat write. "Unless the multiple implicated international actors (including WHO [World Health Organization], Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, or the pharmaceutical companies producing the products) promote the integration of affordable products in the public health strategies, preventing RSV-associated morbidity and mortality will be a privilege of the wealthy."
ECDC warns of rising measles cases amid vaccination gaps -The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) today warned of a continuing rise in measles in the coming months, due to a spike in cases at the end of 2023 that has continued into the new year, suboptimal vaccine coverage, and the approach of the seasonal peak of the virus.The group said the rise in cases is mainly due to drops in measles-containing vaccine coverage that occurred during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic period. Global activity has spiked, fueling a rise in travel-related cases, with Yemen, India, and Ethiopia reporting the most cases in 2023. In Europe, measles activity picked up in 2023, with outbreaks reported in Romania, Austria, and France.So far this year, the ECDC has recorded an increasing number of countries reporting cases, with 2,361 reported so far, 5.4% of them imported. At least seven deaths have been reported, six from Romania and one from Ireland. Though measles-containing vaccine coverage didn't decline as much in Europe during the pandemic as in some other parts of the world, many European countries are below the 95% coverage needed to achieve and sustain measles elimination.ECDC officials urged countries to close vaccine gaps, boost measles surveillance, increase awareness among healthcare workers, and promote vaccine acceptance within communities with tailored interventions.Last month, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued an alert urging health providers to be on the lookout for cases, due to an ongoing global rise in measles spread. In a brief update yesterday, it said as of February 15, 20 cases have been reported from 11 states. Earlier this month in Eurosurveillance, Swiss researchers reported the identification of a measles variant with mutations that resulted in a slight loss in polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test sensitivity, which could result in a false negative in samples with a low viral load. They said the variant has been detected in 18 countries since December 2021, and the numbers seem to be declining, though circulation continues. Yesterday in the latest issue of the same journal, Italian researchers published a letter to the editor describing five similar detections from Milan and surrounding areas. Viruses were classified as genotype 8, with no clear epidemiologic links between them. Three patients had travel histories that included Uzbekistan, Thailand, and southern Italy. They said their findings confirm the Swiss findings and help raise awareness about variant circulation and the potential for reduced sensitivity to diagnostic tests.
Global cholera threat continues to escalate with surges in parts of Africa - Preliminary data for 2023 points to a concerning rise in cholera cases and deaths in multiple world regions, a trend that continues into 2024 with surges in Zambia and Zimbabwe, the World Health Organization (WHO) said this week in its latest update. Though the group is still gathering and analyzing 2023 data, it said 30 countries across five WHO regions reported cholera cases, including nine countries that recorded more than 10,000 cases. The situation remains a grade 3 emergency, the WHO's highest internal emergency level, keeping the global risk as "very high." In the first month of 2024, countries reported 40,900 cases and 775 deaths. In Africa, 17 countries reported outbreaks in 2023, with the highest numbers from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, and Mozambique. Cholera was especially deadly in Malawi, which reported 26% of the world's cholera deaths last year. Also, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, and Kenya grappled with significant outbreaks. Meanwhile, in the Eastern Mediterranean region, eight countries reported outbreaks, with high numbers reported from Afghanistan and Syria. The WHO added that high numbers from those two countries are partly due to a broader case definition, which includes any sickness or death from acute watery diarrhea. The broader definition is useful in conflict situations when diagnostic capability is limited but can fold in other gastrointestinal illnesses. In the Americas, Haiti battled a severe outbreak, and in South East Asia, a few countries, including India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, reported smaller events.So far this year, nearly 41,000 cases have been reported, 775 of them fatal, from 17 countries in four regions.Africa remains the worst-affected region. The WHO said especially striking are surges in Zambia, where more than 12,000 new cases, 467 of them fatal, have been reported and in Zimbabwe, where more than 6,700 cases and 156 deaths have been reported. "The sustained number of countries reporting cases into January 2024 underscores the ongoing challenges posed by cholera and the critical need for persistent public health initiatives," the WHO said, emphasizing that the countries need stronger water and sanitation systems, better awareness of cholera transmission in risk groups, enhanced surveillance, and support for case management. Ongoing shortages of oral cholera vaccine are still critical, the WHO said. In 2023, 14 countries requested 76 million doses, but only 38 million doses were available—half the amount needed.
US study finds high prevalence of antibiotic resistance in urinary Klebsiella isolates -An analysis of Klebsiella isolates from US women treated for uncomplicated urinary tract infections (uUTIs) found a high prevalence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), researchers reported this week inAntimicrobial Resistance & Infection Control.In the study, a team of researchers from Rutgers University; GSK; and Becton, Dickinson and Company analyzed Klebsiella pneumoniae and Klebsiella oxytocaurinary isolates from women seeking outpatient care for presumed uUTIs at 304 US hospitals from January 2011 through December 2019. Although Escherichia coli is the most common cause of uUTIs, K pneumoniae causes approximately 6% of cases, and the study authors say that AMR surveillance for uUTIs is needed to enable physicians to provide optimal empiric antibiotic treatment for patients. A total of 250,719 K pneumoniae isolates and 19,833 K oxytoca isolates were analyzed. The most frequent resistance phenotypes in 2019 were nitrofurantoin-not-susceptible (Klebsiella species, 54.0%; K pneumoniae, 57.3%; K oxytoca, 15.1%) and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole-not-susceptible (Klebsiella species, 10.4%; K pneumoniae, 10.6%; K oxytoca, 8.6%). Extended-spectrum-beta-lactamase-positive/not-susceptible prevalence was 5.4%, 5.3%, and 6.8%, respectively.The prevalence of K pneumoniae resistance phenotype varied by US Census division and by age, and it increased over time (except for the nitrofurantoin-not-susceptible phenotype, which was stable and greater than 50% throughout). AMR prevalence was higher in the south Atlantic, west south central, and east south central divisions and among women 55 and older.
Alaska reports fatal Alaskapox case -- Epidemiologists at the Alaska Department of Health have reported the first known fatal case of Alaskapox, a novel orthopox virus first identified in 2015. The deadly infection involved a man with an underlying health condition living on the Kenai Peninsula.The man's infection is the state's seventh Alaskapox case and is the first located outside of the Fairbanks area, officials said in a February 9 epidemiologic bulletin. Alaska reported its most recent previous Alaskapox virus cases in 2021, involving a young girl and a middle-aged woman from the Fairbanks area. There were no links between the patients, but both had pets, including cats, and had spent time outside in the summer. The elderly man's symptoms began in the middle of September 2023 with a red, tender papule in his right armpit. At the time, he was undergoing immunosuppressive therapy as part of cancer treatment. Over the next 6 weeks he sought care for the lesion, which worsened. In November he was hospitalized for cellulitis that limited movement of his arm. He was transferred to a hospital in Anchorage, as pain and other symptoms worsened and clinicians noted four other lesions on different parts of his body. Lab tests were initially positive for cowpox, and follow-up testing at the state health lab was positive for generic orthopox virus. A sample sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was consistent with Alaskapox virus, but genetic sequencing suggested it was distinct from samples from earlier cases that had been reported from Fairbanks. Following treatment with tecovirimat (Tpoxx), intravenous vaccinia immunoglobulin, and oral brincidofovir, his arm symptoms initially improved, but during the man's time in a long-term care facility, his condition deteriorated and he experienced delayed wound healing, kidney failure, and respiratory failure. He died at the end of January. Investigators found that he had no recent travel history or contact with people who did. The man had cared for a stray cat at his home that regularly hunted small animals. The cat frequently scratched the man, which included a notable scratch in his right armpit in the month before his symptoms began. Blood and mucosal samples collected from the cat were negative on antibody orthopox testing at the CDC. The man reported no other contact with small animals, but had gardened in his backyard through September 2023. Officials said the man's immunocompromised status probably contributed to his disease severity. State officials added that the first detection outside of Alaska's interior suggests that Alaskapox is more widespread in the state's small mammals than previously known, which should raise awareness in clinicians. Epidemiologists and their health partners, including the CDC, are testing small mammals outside of Alaska's interior region to gauge the prevalence in animals.
Municipal water linked to Minnesota city's Legionnaire's disease outbreak An investigation into a Legionnaire's disease outbreak in Grand Rapids, Minnesota, found that the municipal water system is the likely source, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) announced yesterday. Fourteen cases have been reported since April 2023, all involving adults. Eleven patients were hospitalized, but no deaths were reported. The epidemiologic investigation found that the municipal water supply was the only common exposure among the patients. Meanwhile, the lab investigation found that water samples from two buildings were positive for Legionella bacteria and that Legionella from the two buildings were highly related to each other and to the bacteria from patient respiratory samples. Tom Hogan, who directs the MDH's environmental health division, said officials are working with the local water utility to determine how to address the situation. Grand Rapids is one of a few cities in Minnesota that doesn't chlorinate its water. "This is because some systems that draw water from groundwater sources, such as community wells, are not required to add disinfectants," the MDH said. Julie Kennedy, general manager of Grand Rapids Public Utilities, said the main priority is developing a plan to disinfect and flush areas of the water system. She added that officials are considering adding a chlorination system, which can be a complex process for a previously unchlorinated system to avoid any additional safety, health, or distribution complications. Legionnaire's disease—a serious type of pneumonia—can occur when people inhale water droplets containing Legionella, which is commonly found in natural and manmade aquatic environments. The MDH said people sickened in the Grand Rapids outbreak likely contracted the bacteria from water mist from fixtures in buildings, such as showers or faucets.
Postexposure vaccination prevented hepatitis A outbreak, investigators report -A successful targeted vaccine campaign prevented a hepatitis A outbreak in a Los Angeles County jail, according to a study yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.On May 30, 2023, the Los Angeles County Jail system was notified that an inmate had received a positive hepatitis A test result, the authors said. The person was a 41-year-old food handler who had been first jailed on April 27, 2023, who reported homelessness, injection drug use, and alcohol use disorder on intake. The patient complained of severe abdominal pain and, upon clinical examination, showed signs of jaundice.An investigation using electronic health records and immunization history helped identify prison contacts who were eligible for hepatitis A vaccination.Within 48 hours, 2,766 persons were offered vaccine, and 1,510 (54.6%) agreed to receive it."Contacts who were food handlers without confirmed evidence of immunity and who declined vaccination were removed from food-handling duties for the duration of their potential incubation period," the authors wrote.No additional cases were identified."This exposure response highlights the importance of initiating a rapid response to hepatitis A exposure in a jail setting to minimize risk for transmission and help prevent an outbreak," the authors wrote.
Quick takes: Listeria recalls expand, CDC mpox vaccine reminder, Oregon plague case | CIDRAP
- Several US food companies have issued recalls because they contain cheese and dairy ingredients made by a California company at the center of an investigation into a multistate Listeria monocytogenesoutbreak. In an outbreak update, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lists 61 foods on a recall list, which include the earlier recalled products from Rizo-Lopez Foods, plus several other products from other companies that used Rizo-Lopez Food ingredients. The list of foods containing potentially tainted ingredients includes items such as meal kits, salad kits, layered tips, and salad dressings. The number of outbreak illnesses remains at 26 cases, 2 of them fatal, from 11 states.
- Though mpox cases in the United States have declined sharply since the outbreak peak in the summer of 2022, small clusters of cases continue to be reported, prompting a vaccination reminder today from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In October 2023, the CDC recommended that people in risk groups ages 18 and older receive two doses of the Jynneos vaccine to reduce the risk of continued transmission. However, in a Clinician Outreach and Communication Activity (COCA) e-mail notice today, the CDC said only one in four of the approximately 2 million eligible people have received two doses. It urged clinicians to remain diligent about taking patients' sexual histories and recommending Jynneos to those who are eligible. A recent surveillance update said 169 mpox cases have been reported in US so far this year.
- In Oregon, public health officials in Deschutes County have reported a human plague infection in a person who likely contracted the disease from his or her symptomatic pet cat. The case marks Oregon's first human plague case since 2015, according to a statement. The patient's illness was identified early in the disease, posing a low risk to the community. A report from NBC News quoting a county health official said the patient was hospitalized with a draining abscess that progressed to the bloodstream but has responded well to antibiotic treatment. Investigators have found no other cases. The disease can spread to people or animals through a bite from an infected flea or contact with an animal infected with Yersinia pestis. In central Oregon, the animals most likely to carry plague are squirrels and chipmunks, but mice and other rodents can all carry the bacteria.
CDC: Maternal syphilis rates in US on the rise - Maternal syphilis rates in the United States tripled from 2016 to 2022, according to new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data published this week.During the 6-years analysis, maternal infections rose 222%, reaching 280.4 per 100,000 births in 2022.The increase was seen across all ages and ethnicities, but syphilis rates were highest in mothers who were American Indian and Alaska Native, younger than age 25, and had no prenatal care. Among American Indian and Alaska Natives, rates rose 783%, from 159.7 to 1,410.5 per 100,000 births in 2016 and 2022, respectively. In 2022, the state with the highest incidence was South Dakota (762.6 per 100,000 births), and the lowest incidence was in Maine (45.8 per 100,000 births). In addition to South Dakota, New Mexico, Colorado, Mississippi, Montana, and Alaska also saw a 400% increase in rates.The biggest risk factor for maternal infection was receiving no or late prenatal care. The largest increases occurred for mothers with no prenatal care (298%, from 262.5 to 1,044.0 per 100,000 births), followed by mothers who began care in the third trimester (244%, from 167.4 to 576.1), and mothers who began care in the second trimester (240%, from 134.3 to 456.9), the CDC said. "After reaching historic lows in 2000 and 2001, rates of primary and secondary syphilis in the overall U.S. population have increased nearly every year through 2022," the report said. "Congenital syphilis can cause adverse pregnancy outcomes such as fetal and neonatal death, low birthweight, preterm birth, and brain and nerve disorders."
Documented US Lyme disease infections soared in 2022 after updated case definition -- In 2022, reported Lyme disease infections were 70% higher than the US average in 2017 to 2019, likely because of a revision in the surveillance case definition, according to researchpublished yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.Investigators from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) calculated Lyme disease incidence using 2020 US Census Bureau data as population denominators, comparing the results for 2022 with those of 2017 to 2019.Lyme disease is a bacterial tick-borne illness caused by some species of Borrelia spirochetes. Early signs and symptoms may include a red "bull's eye" rash, fever, and fatigue. If untreated, the infection can affect the heart, joints, and nervous system. Nearly all Lyme disease cases occur in 15 high-incidence areas in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and upper Midwest.Since the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists and the CDC revised the case definition effective on January 1, 2022, high-incidence jurisdictions (those with at least 10 cases per 100,000 population for 3 years) report cases based on lab results alone rather than lab data plus clinical information, the study authors noted. Low-incidence areas still must report clinical data for patients with signs of infection."As the number of Lyme disease infections has increased, the workload associated with collecting clinical information has proven prohibitive in several high-incidence jurisdictions, leading to the adoption of modified, jurisdiction-specific surveillance practices," the researchers wrote. "These divergent approaches often precluded the reporting of cases to CDC and prevented accurate comparison of trends across jurisdictions and over time."In total, 62,551 Lyme disease cases (59,734 from high-incidence areas and 2,817 from low-incidence jurisdictions) were reported to the CDC in 2022—1.7 times the yearly average of 37,118 cases documented in 2017 to 2019. This represents a 72.9% increase in high-incidence areas and a 10.0% rise in those with low rates.In 2022, 95.5% of cases were reported from high-incidence jurisdictions, compared with an average of 93.1% in 2017 to 2019. Lyme disease incidence in 2022 (18.9 cases per 100,000 people) was 68.8% higher than that in 2017 to 2019 (11.2 per 100,000). Also in 2022, the median rate in high-incidence areas (68.3 cases per 100,000) was 58% higher than that in 2017 to 2019 (43.3 per 100,000), although the median rate in low-incidence areas (0.52 cases per 100,000) was 24% lower than in the earlier period (0.68 per 100,000).Incidence rose the most in older people in 2022, with twice as many cases documented in those aged 65 and older as reported in 2017 to 2019. The 2022 incidence in children aged 5 to 9 years (16.5 cases per 100,000) was 11.5% higher than the earlier average (14.8 per 100,000).Among adults aged 75 to 79, 2022 incidence (38.3 per 100,000) was 2.2 times the 2017 to 2019 average (17.3 per 100,000). More cases were reported in men than women in both 2022 (57.3%) and 2017 to 2019 (57.7%).
Cambodia reports fourth H5N1 avian flu case of the year - Cambodia has reported its fourth human H5N1 avian flu case of the year, the brother of a 9-year-old boy who recently died from his H5N1 infection, according to a statement from the country's health ministry that was translated and posted by Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog.The latest confirmed case is a 16-year-old boy who didn't have respiratory symptoms. The boy and his deceased younger brother are from Kratie province in northeastern Cambodia. The health ministry didn't say if the teen had any other symptoms, but it said it continues to track contacts and has distributed oseltamivir to close contacts of confirmed cases. The current statement didn't have any details about the teen's exposure. The ministry statement last week announcing his brother's illness and death said poultry had died at the patient's home and that dead birds were eaten.Cambodia has now reported 10 human H5N1 cases since 2023, part of rise in cases that follows a decade-long lapse in cases. The country's recent cases have involved an older H5N1 clade (2.3.2.1c) that is known to circulate in the country's poultry. It is different than the newer H5N1 clade (2.3.4.4b) that is circulating widely in wild birds and poultry in multiple world regions, with sporadic detections in mammals and humans.
Ducks identified as source of H10N5 avian flu in Chinese woman's coinfection - The World Health Organization (WHO) today added more details to China's recent report of a woman who died following a coinfection with H3N2 seasonal flu and H10N5 avian flu. The case marked the first known human illness involving H10N5. The woman, in her sixties, worked as a farmer in Anhui province and had underlying health conditions. Her respiratory illness symptoms began on November 30, 2023, and she was hospitalized on December 2. When her condition worsened, she was transferred to a facility in Zhejiang province on December 7, where she died on December 16. On January 22, authorities in Zhejiang isolated H3N2 and H10N5 from her respiratory samples, which were confirmed on January 26 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.Investigators found that the woman had not been vaccinated against seasonal flu. A few days before her symptoms began, she was exposed to live poultry when she bought a duck. Lab testing on duck meat from the woman's refrigerator found H10N5 in seven samples. The woman did not have contact with pigs or other mammals. Environmental samples from her home were negative.Monitoring of the woman's contacts in both provinces found no related cases. Agriculture authorities conducted a trace-back investigation of the ducks and have culled birds and disinfected affected areas.The WHO said H10 strains are occasionally detected in wild birds, poultry, and mammals in different parts of the world. They are low-pathogenic viruses that don't require reporting, so their prevalence is unknown. H10N5 had been isolated from pigs in China's Hubei province.More research is needed to gauge the epidemiology of H10N5 in animal populations, the WHO said, adding that, so far, avian H10 viruses haven't acquired the ability to spread from person to person.
Researchers identify episodic MERS cases in Kenyan camels, evidence of infection in people -Year-long sampling of dromedary camels in northern Kenya reveals biphasic (two-phase) peaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and identifies more than three case clusters over 3 weeks in camels from different areas, as well as a 15% infection rate in slaughterhouse workers. For the study, published yesterday in Emerging Infectious Diseases, a University of Nairobi–led research team sampled 10 to 15 camels from 12 different regions 4 or 5 days a week fromSeptember 2022 to September 2023. MERS is a respiratory disease caused by a relative of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. MERS can cause severe lung infection, fever, cough, shortness of breath, and death. It was first discovered in humans in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and has since spread to many other countries. There is no vaccine against MERS, and treatment consists of supportive care. Reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) detected MERS-CoV RNA in 1.3% of camels. The incidence peaked in early October 2022, at 11.7%, and February 2023 (12.1%), corresponding to Kenya's dry seasons, when camel calves lose their maternal antibodies. On enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), MERS-CoV IgG levels in 369 random samples showed an 80.8% seroprevalence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. IgG levels were lowest in June and highest in March. IgG levels were negatively associated with RNA positivity. IgG reactivity was identified in 7 of the 48 slaughterhouse workers (14.6%), with 1 of them showing evidence of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibodies. None were severely ill. "Our sustained sampling of dromedary camels showed a biphasic MERS-CoV incidence in northern Kenya not observed in previous studies," the researchers said. "One explanation might be the short time of virus excretion in MERS-CoV–infected dromedaries, making viral RNA detection difficult without daily surveillance." Increased camel-to-camel interactions between unexposed and infected animals from different herds in slaughterhouses could have influenced the outbreaks, the authors said.
Do apes have humor? Study shows that great apes playfully tease each other -- In a study published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, scientists from the University of California Los Angeles, the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior, Indiana University, and the University of California San Diego (Isabelle Laumer, Sasha Winkler, Federico Rossano, and Erica Cartmill) report evidence of playful teasing in the four great ape species: orangutans, chimpanzees, bonobos and gorillas. "Great apes are excellent candidates for playful teasing, as they are closely related to us, engage in social play, show laughter and display relatively sophisticated understandings of others' expectations," says Isabelle Laumer (UCLA/MPI-AB) a post-doctoral researcher and the first author of the study. The team analyzed spontaneous social interactions that appeared to be playful, mildly harassing, or provocative. During these interactions, the researchers observed the teaser's actions, bodily movements, facial expressions, and how the targets of the teasing responded in turn. They also assessed the teaser's intentionality by looking for evidence that the behavior was directed at a specific target, that it persisted or intensified, and that teasers waited for a response from the target. The researchers found that orangutans, chimpanzees, bonobos and gorillas all engaged in intentionally provocative behavior, frequently accompanied by characteristics of play. They identified 18 distinct teasing behaviors. Many of these behaviors appeared to be used to provoke a response, or at least to attract the target's attention. "It was common for teasers to repeatedly wave or swing a body part or object in the middle of the target's field of vision, hit or poke them, stare closely at their face, disrupt their movements, pull on their hair or perform other behaviors that were extremely difficult for the target to ignore," explains UCLA and IU professor Erica Cartmill, senior author of the study. Although playful teasing took many forms, the authors note that it differed from play in several ways. "Playful teasing in great apes is one-sided, very much coming from the teaser often throughout the entire interaction and rarely reciprocated," explains Cartmill. "The animals also rarely use play signals like the primate 'playface,' which is similar to what we would call a smile, or 'hold' gestures that signal their intent to play." Playful teasing mainly occurred when apes were relaxed, and shared similarities with behaviors in humans. "Similar to teasing in children, ape playful teasing involves one-sided provocation, response waiting in which the teaser looks towards the target's face directly after a teasing action, repetition, and elements of surprise," Laumer explains. The researchers noted that Jane Goodall and other field primatologists had mentioned similar behaviors happening in chimpanzees many years ago, but this new study was the first to systematically study playful teasing.
Graves applauds passage of critical Water Permitting Bill - U.S. Congressman Garret Graves (Louisiana) released the following statement in response to the passage of H.R. 7023 – the Creating Confidence in Clean Water Permitting Act in the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. The legislation, offered by U.S. Congressman David Rouzer (North Carolina), builds upon earlier permitting reform modernizations signed into law and streamlines the permitting process under the Clean Water Act (CWA): “This package is another positive step toward modernizing permitting so that critical infrastructure projects may be carried out more efficiently,” said Graves. “We have consistently fought to modernize outdated permitting laws so that they are no longer obstacles to protecting the people and resources they should be serving. We commend Rep. Rouzer for his work on this legislation that goes hand-in-hand with our legislative efforts—the first changes to the National Environmental Policy Act in forty years—to improve efficiency and expedite project review.” Graves offered the following amendments to H.R. 7023, which were accepted and included in the package: To ensure certainty in National Pollution Discharge Elimination System general permits by requiring notice if a permit will not be renewed and providing a continuance for those permits when bureaucrats are dragging their feet; To specify standing requirements for lawsuits over 404 permits so that a plaintiff would have had to actually participate in the public comment process and by doing so have already raised the specific issue before they can bring a lawsuit; and To require the EPA to produce implementation guidance for their 2023 Waters of the United States rule to conform with the Supreme Court’s decision in Sackett v. EPA. In 2018, Graves first introduced the Building U.S. Infrastructure through Limited Delays & Efficient Reviews (BUILDER) Act, which modernizes the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to expedite infrastructure project review to improve efficiency, reduce project costs, spur economic recovery, and rebuild America. BUILDER was included as part of H.R. 1 – the Lower Energy Costs Act, the House’s marquee energy legislation that passed on March 30, 2023. Sections of BUILDER were also included in H.R. 3746 – the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which was signed into law by President Biden on June 3, 2023.
Biden administration expands effort to help underserved communities get access to sewage infrastructure funds - The Biden administration is expanding its efforts to help underserved communities get access to sewage infrastructure. The administration said Tuesday it would expand a pilot initiative to 150 additional communities, up from 11 at its start, to help them get access to federal wastewater funds. About 2 million people in the U.S. don’t have adequate wastewater and drinking water infrastructure, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). A 2017 report from the United Nations on extreme poverty in the U.S. documented issues including “various houses in rural areas that were surrounded by cesspools of sewage that flowed out of broken or non-existent septic systems” in Alabama. Radhika Fox, the EPA’s top water official, said the expanded program would be geared toward low-income and rural communities. It provides them with technical assistance so that they can better assess their needs, create plans and apply for funding, she said. “With focused attention, with the funding that the President has so successfully championed…we really can make a difference for those over two million people again are still living without the basics,” Fox told reporters.
Americans are fleeing cities with air pollution: report – More Americans are moving away from cities with severe air pollution than in the past, according to a report from real estate site Redfin. The recently published Redfin study found that over 1.2 million people moved away from cities that are at “high risk” of having poor air quality between 2021 and 2022. About 420,000 people moved out of these “high-risk” cities between 2019 and 2019, according to Redfin. Many Americans are fleeing West Coast cities in states like California, Washington, Oregon and Idaho that have seen their air quality worsen in recent years, in part, due to smoke from wildfires. There are 13 major metro areas where more than 85 percent of homes face high risk of poor air quality, and all of them are in the western United States, according to the study. Two-thirds of those metro areas saw more people move out than in between 2021 and 2022. And more Americans are moving to places with low risks of air pollution like Phoenix, Dallas, Tampa, Austin and San Antonio, Texas, the report found. While these cities might have better air quality, new residents are not escaping the impacts of climate change. Tampa and North Port, Florida have suffered from extreme flooding as hurricanes become worse due to climate change. Climate change has also made Texas hotter, worsening drought conditions and sparking more wildfires in the state. Over 1 million people moved into metro areas with low risks of poor air quality, mainly located outside the West Coast, between 2021 and 2022, according to the report. That is almost twice as much as the year prior. While some Americans are moving out of these high-risk areas out of concerns over air pollution, most are leaving these cities for other reasons. Another Redfin survey found that 9 percent of recent home sellers said they decided to move over worries about climate change. But most home sellers, 31 percent, said they wanted to move because they wanted more space, while 24 percent said they wanted to be closer to family. Another 20 percent said they chose to sell because they wanted a better deal on a home.
Hostile reaction greets Biden during East Palestine visit a year after train derailment - Just over a year after a fiery derailment shocked East Palestine, Ohio and the surrounding area, President Joe Biden visited the area for the first time Friday. He received a mostly hostile reaction from the predominantly anti-Biden crowd. Some people in the small town near the Pennsylvania border expressed skepticism about the overture, questioning Biden’s timing, or condemning him outright for visiting too late. “It sort of feels like the town doesn’t want him here,” said Brenyelle Kunkle, an East Palestine resident. People were unclear about the purpose of Biden’s visit, she said. Jamie Mentuick, an environmental activist from about 18 miles away in Madison Township, Ohio, said she hoped Biden would speak to locals so he could hear their stories. “Biden owes the residents an explanation of why it has been a year,” Mentuick said. A minority was thankful to the president for making the trip and for his administration’s response to the Feb. 3, 2023, disaster. The president arrived by motorcade about 4 p.m. to visit the site in the eastern part of town where the Norfolk Southern train derailed, spilling chemicals into the area’s air and water. He spent about an hour at the site before leaving around 5:30 p.m. Biden told residents he wanted them to understand “that we’re not going home, no matter what, until this job is done, and it’s not done yet,” referring to the federal government, the Associated Press reported. He did not explain why it took more than a year for him to visit. He praised “Herculean efforts” by the federal, state and local governments to clean up after the derailment and fire, announced federal grants from the National Institutes of Health to study the short- and long-term effects of what happened and blamed the derailment on greed by the railroad company, Norfolk Southern. “While there are acts of God, this was an act of greed that was 100% preventable,” Biden said after local officials briefed him on the cleanup and took him to the site of the derailment. “Let me say it again, an act of greed that was 100% preventable.” Biden’s tour of the East Palestine site was closed to local media, though TribLive witnessed the motorcade arrive. It was met with a mix of jeers and signs of support from a small crowd of residents. Some demonstrators held signs calling for Biden’s impeachment. Diana Nicely, 72, lives in Lawrence County about 13 miles from the derailment site and was visiting her son and grandchildren in East Palestine. She said the derailment forced her son’s family to move temporarily to a hotel in Beaver County. She was upset Biden didn’t visit sooner. “It is too late,” she said at a McDonald’s about an hour before Biden arrived. “He should have been here a long time ago.” Thousands of people were forced to abandon their homes near the Ohio-Pennsylvania border as toxic chemicals spilled into waterways and vinyl chloride entered the atmosphere in a black plume following a controlled explosion a few days after the derailment. Residents in East Palestine and Darlington have said strong chemical odors lingered for weeks. They raised concerns about how livestock, businesses and public health would be impacted. Environmental officials declared air and water quality levels were safe after the derailment. Government officials set up resource centers for area residents in response.
Biden calls out Norfolk Southern in his first visit to site of East Palestine train disaster -- The Norfolk Southern train derailment that sent toxins into the soil, water and air of East Palestine, Ohio, was an “act of greed,” President Joe Biden said Friday as he visited the town for the first time. Describing the crash as “an act of cruelty that was 100% preventable,” Biden said the administration had been pushing railroad companies to take more precautions prior to the February 3, 2023, Norfolk Southern derailment. “Multibillion dollar railroad companies transporting toxic chemical have a responsibility to do it safely,” Biden said Friday. Norfolk Southern, he said, “failed.” “While there are acts of God,” Biden said, “this was an act of greed.” While nobody was killed in the Norfolk Southern crash, the train’s derailment and the later decision to vent and burn five tankers containing cancer-causing vinyl chloride created a plume of toxic smoke that could be seen from space and caused a panic over the quality of the town’s drinking water. More than 1 million pounds of toxins were put into the town’s water, air and soil as a result of the derailment and its aftermath. Hundreds of residents were ordered to evacuate. Some moved away permanently. Others said they had developed rashes, sore throats, nausea and headaches after eventually returning to their homes, and worried the symptoms were related to chemicals released after the derailment. Biden had been under pressure to visit East Palestine since the derailment. The White House said shortly after the train’s derailment that the president would find a time to visit, but that did not happen last year. Former President Donald Trump visited East Palestine about three weeks after the derailment on February 22, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg visited the next day. Trump during his visit criticized Biden’s absence and what resulted was a political uproar, all while residents said they simply wanted to know whether their water was safe to drink. In the town on Friday, both Biden and Environmental Protection Administration Administrator Michael Regan sought to reassure residents that the administration’s focus was on helping clean the town up and hold Norfolk Southern accountable from the crash since the outset - including Biden’s signing of an executive order in September ordering federal agencies to hold the company responsible for cleaning up the mess and reporting progress. The company reported last summer that costs associated with the cleanup were around $1 billion.
Biden calls Ohio train derailment 'an act of greed' as he visits area a year later (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday called the toxic derailment of a Norfolk Southern (NSC.N), opens new tab train in East Palestine, Ohio, completely preventable during a visit to the area a year after the incident sparked a health and environmental crisis. In his first trip since the derailment, Biden toured the site of the accident, which forced residents to abandon their homes. Many people have since suffered from rashes, breathing problems and other ailments. "While there are acts of God, this was an act of greed that was 100% preventable," he said. "We were pushing railroads to take more precautions, to deal with braking, to deal with a whole range of things that were not dealt with. Norfolk Southern failed its responsibility." East Palestine Mayor Trent Conaway, a conservative who does not support Biden, extended the invitation to visit to the Democratic president, saying it would be good for his community. "President Biden, your long-awaited visit to our village today allows us to focus on the things we agree with," Conaway said, listing efforts to address long-term health concerns in the community and economic growth as two of those things. The president urged Congress to pass a bipartisan bill to toughen rail safety laws and said the federal government would remain active in the community until the cleanup was complete. The bill, advanced by Ohio Senators J.D. Vance, a Republican, and Democrat Sherrod Brown, has stalled. Republicans and some local residents have criticized Biden for not visiting earlier. Biden's motorcade passed by protesters in the village; some made crude gestures and one person yelled: “One year too late!”
Strong winter storm over the Southern Plains to evolve into a Nor’easter on February 12 - Forecasters at the National Weather Service (NWS) issued a warning on February 11, 2024, about a significant winter storm impacting the Southern Rockies and High Plains, moving northeast towards the Northern Mid-Atlantic, New York, and New England. Expected heavy snowfall, powerful winds, and potential coastal flooding are set to disrupt travel and cause power outages across affected regions. Key messages for the February 10 – 13 winter storm:
- A winter storm tracking across the southern High Plains will produce a swath of heavy and disruptive snowfall accumulations from the Southern Rockies to central Oklahoma today and into Sunday night. Hazardous travel conditions are expected in affected areas.
- The storm will make its way east into the Mid-South where a band of heavy snow will set up over southern Missouri, with localized snowfall totals up to 150 mm (6 inches) possible in the Ozarks.
- On Monday night, February 12 into Tuesday, February 13, a low pressure in the Ohio Valley will give way to a rapidly deepening storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Heavy snowfall will begin across northern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and southern New England early Tuesday morning.
- This fast-moving storm currently has the highest potential for over 205 mm (8 inches) across northern Pennsylvania through southern New England. Powerful winds and heavy/wet snow could damage trees, powerlines, and disrupt travel. Coastal Flooding is also expected.
The National Weather Service (NWS) has warned of a significant winter storm continuing to impact the Southern Rockies and High Plains on February 11, 2024, before heading northeast towards the Northern Mid-Atlantic, New York, and New England early this week. This weather event is expected to produce a swath of heavy and disruptive snowfall accumulations from the Southern Rockies to central Oklahoma today and into Sunday night, leading to hazardous travel conditions in these areas. As the storm advances east into the Mid-South, a band of heavy snow is forecasted over southern Missouri, with localized snowfall totals reaching up to 150 mm (6 inches) possible in the Ozarks, exacerbating travel difficulties. By Monday night into Tuesday, February 13, a low-pressure system in the Ohio Valley will evolve into a rapidly deepening storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This transition will initiate heavy snowfall across northern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and southern New England early Tuesday morning. The regions are bracing for the storm’s peak intensity, with snowfall potential exceeding 205 mm (about 8 inches), alongside powerful winds and heavy, wet snow that could lead to significant tree and powerline damage, as well as travel disruptions. Coastal flooding is also a concern due to the storm’s intensity. Additional accumulations of 150 to 300 mm (6 to 12 inches) of snow are anticipated for areas of the Texas Panhandle, with the storm’s effects also spreading to Oklahoma due to marginally cold air and moisture. The Gulf Coast states, Mid-South, and Southeast are expecting severe weather, including the risk of strong winds, large hail, and tornadoes, under a Slight Risk warning from the Storm Prediction Center. The extensive cloud cover and precipitation are likely to result in below-normal temperatures across the South, contrasting with the above-normal temperatures expected across much of the northern and eastern U.S., where the lack of cold air transport from Canada will mitigate the usual cold conditions despite the storm.
Boston closes schools, state warns of treacherous roads ahead of Tuesday's nor-easter --Mayor Michelle Wu has declared a snow emergency for Boston ahead of a nor'easter that could drop up to a foot of snow on the city. Boston public schools, city buildings, BCYF and public libraries will all be closed Tuesday. The snow emergency and parking ban goes into effect at 10 p.m., Wu announced in a Monday morning press conference. Streets with parking bans can be found on Boston's website, along with a list of free and reduced-price parking garages for cars that need to move off banned roadways. Those garages open two hours before the snow emergency begins. Residents who shovel parking spots can put down space savers for up to 48 hours after emergency ends, except in the South End and Bay Village neighborhood. The mayor reminded residents that parking in Boston Public Schools parking lots is not allowed during snow emergencies and cars will be towed. City trash pickup will still take place Tuesday, said Franklin-Hodge, but crews will begin garbage collection at 4 a.m. to get ahead of the heavier snow. Speaking Monday afternoon, Gov. Maura Healey said non-essential state workers would work from home during the storm. She also asked residents to stay off the roads during the heaviest of snowfalls, expected during the late morning. "What we're concerned about is this is during the week — it's during prime time, daytime hours," Healey said. "We're going to see snow fall at a rate of 2-3 inches an hour. It's gonna be wet, it's gonna be heavy, it's gonna be hard for plows to clear the snow." Massachusetts has enough equipment and road treatment for Tuesday, but plows may not be able to keep up with the predicted rate of snowfall during the heart of the storm, according to Department of Transportation Highway Administrator John Gulliver. The state is coordinating with New York, Connecticut and Rhode Island on trucking restriction, he said. Jascha Franklin-Hodge, Boston's chief of streets, said the city has just under 40,000 pounds of salt stocked up to to treat roadways and 850 pieces of snow removal equipment between the city and private partners. The mayor and city officials pleaded with residents to stay off the road, both for safety reasons and to allow plows to work efficiently. "This nor'easter will be quick, but it will pack a punch," said Franklin-Hodge. In addition to the 8 to 12 inches of snow expected in the Boston area, the storm aligns with high tide. That means there will be significant potential for coastal flooding. Snow removal could last into Wednesday or Thursday because of the amount of snow forecasted, said Mike Brohel, Boston's superintendent of basic city services. But he said the city is well prepared to manage cleanup.
Intense hailstorms hit UAE after cloud seeding operations - Heavy rain accompanied by lightning and intense hailstorms hit the city of Al Ain and other parts of UAE on the morning of February 12, 2024, causing impressive hail accumulations. This is reportedly the strongest hailstorm Al Ain has seen in 40 years. It comes after NMC conducted a series of cloud seeding flights. Videos shared by the UAE’s National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) showed hail, some even larger than golf balls, hitting Al Ain, Al Wothba region, Bani Yas in Abu Dhabi, and other parts of the country. Other videos show flooded and damaged cars and residents in Al Ain, usually used to the occurrence of hail during such conditions, were surprised by the intensity of the phenomenon. According to Gulf News, the NCM’s cloud seeding division swung into action over the weekend, dispatching 14 specialized flights over two days to amplify rainfall across the country. “Thanks to their efforts, residents enjoyed rainy weather on February 11 and 12, with moderate to heavy rain, and even hail, across the country,” their report said. “We completed four flights on Monday, since midnight, and 14 cloud seeding flights, overall, since Sunday [February 11],” NCM’s senior meteorologist, Dr Ahmad Habib told Gulf News in an exclusive interview.
Floods in northern Oman claim three lives, cause widespread evacuations - Heavy rains affecting Oman over the past couple of days caused significant disruption and widespread floods in which at least 3 people lost their lives. Over 200 individuals have been evacuated or rescued, with schools suspending classes in affected areas. The Ministry of Health has also rescheduled 25 000 appointments in light of the flooding. Oman has been experiencing heavy rainfall, particularly affecting the north of the country, with floods leading to at least three fatalities in the Rustaq Town area of Al Batinah South Governorate on February 12, 2024. The Civil Defence and Ambulance Authority (CDAA) has been actively conducting rescue operations, saving 108 people in Ad Dhahirah Governorate and evacuating 118 individuals from Al Batinah North Governorate. The intense weather conditions prompted the suspension of studies in government, private, and international schools across all governorates, excluding Dhofar, Musandam, and Al Wusta, with classes expected to resume on Wednesday. The severe weather has also led to the rescheduling of over 25 000 health appointments, emphasizing the widespread impact of the storms. Flash floods have been reported in various parts of Oman, with the CDAA recovering bodies of three children swept away in Rustaq and conducting numerous rescues, including individuals stranded in vehicles or specialized centers. The Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Water Resources highlighted that the Wilayat of Dibba in Musandam Governorate received the highest rainfall, measuring 140 mm (5.5 inches). The meteorological department forecasts continued heavy rain, hail, and strong winds over north-eastern Oman for the next 24 hours, raising concerns about potential flash floods. Authorities, including the Civil Aviation Authority, have issued warnings urging citizens and residents to exercise caution, avoid crossing valleys, and stay away from low-lying areas and the sea during this period.
Massive power outages hit Victoria during violent thunderstorms, Australia - Violent thunderstorms struck Australia’s east coast on February 13, 2024, leading to significant damage and disruptions. The storms caused the shutdown of AGL’s Loy Yang A power station in Victoria, leaving approximately 590 000 homes and businesses without electricity. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) was forced to cap electricity prices at A$16,600 per megawatt hour, a significant increase from the usual A$200. Efforts to restore power are ongoing, with some customers already reconnected. Violent thunderstorms with winds in excess of 100 km/h (62 mph) hit Victoria’s east coast on Tuesday, February 13, 2024, causing widespread damage, including downed trees and power lines. Between 12:00 and 18:00 LT, the Victoria State Emergency Service received well over 1 500 calls for assistance, and the number continued rising with ongoing thunderstorm activity. The most significant impact was the shutdown of AGL’s Loy Yang A power station, a critical infrastructure responsible for about a third of the state’s electricity supply. The station’s closure was a direct result of the collapse of several towers along a key section of Victoria’s transmission network during the storm, characterized by strong winds and heavy rainfall. In the aftermath of the plant’s shutdown, electricity prices in Victoria soared to their maximum limit of A$16,600 (approximately USD) per megawatt hour, a stark increase from the average price of around A$200. Responding to the crisis, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) implemented measures to cut electricity usage across the network, a decision aimed at managing the reduced power supply and preventing further system overload. State energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio announced that efforts to mitigate the situation had led to the restoration of one of Loy Yang’s four units, allowing for the end of mandatory power cuts. However, despite this progress, approximately 500 000 customers remained without power as of the evening of February 13, with an earlier restoration for 90 000 customers. The widespread power outages have affected a broad swath of Victoria, from Melbourne’s western suburbs to regional towns like Bendigo, Ballarat, and Shepparton. The extent of the damage and the challenging weather conditions suggest that restoring power to all affected areas could take days, according to Emma Tyner, a spokesperson for Citipower and Powercor. The event has renewed the calls for urgent investment in the power infrastructure, with AEMO saying there is an urgent need for a reliable power supply amidst the retirement of aging coal-fired plants.
Tropical Cyclone “Lincoln” hits Gulf of Carpentaria, heavy rainfall and damaging winds continue, Australia - Tropical Cyclone “Lincoln” made landfall on the Gulf of Carpentaria coast between Port McAarthur and the Northern Territory – Queensland border at 06:00 UTC on February 16, 2024, as a Category 1 storm. Shortly after, it weakened and moved west across the Northern Territory, with heavy rainfall forecasted and a moderate risk of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone. After making landfall as a Category 1 cyclone on the Australian scale, Lincoln quickly weakened below cyclone intensity near Borroloola. Despite its downgrade, the system’s remnants continue to pose significant weather threats as they move across the central Northern Territory and towards the Kimberley region in Western Australia. Heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flash flooding and minor river flooding, is expected along its path. As of February 17, 2024, at 02:10 UTC, Lincoln’s remnants were over the Barkly District, moving towards the northern Tanami and southern Gregory Districts. The Severe Weather Warning forecasts heavy to locally intense rainfall, with totals ranging from 70 – 120 mm (2.76 – 4.72 inches) and isolated heavier falls up to 180 mm (7.09 inches) possible. Strong winds averaging 50 to 60 km/h (31 to 37 mph) with gusts up to 90 km/h (56 mph) are also anticipated.
Major wildfire in Christchurch’s Port Hills, state of emergency declared, New Zealand - (video) Fire and Emergency New Zealand reported a large vegetation fire covering about 650 ha (1 606 acres) in the Port Hills near Christchurch on February 15, 2024. A state of emergency was declared the previous day, with 130 firefighters, 11 helicopters, and heavy machinery deployed. Evacuations affected 80 properties, though no homes were lost. The blaze remains uncontained, and a public health warning was issued due to smoke. Fire and Emergency New Zealand (FENZ) has been actively responding to a significant vegetation fire in the Port Hills near Christchurch. The wildfire, which started on February 13, 2024, led to the declaration of a state of emergency shortly after its outbreak. This incident comes seven years after the devastating Port Hills fires in February 2017, which consumed over 1 600 ha (3 954 acres) of land, resulted in a firefighter’s death, and the loss of nine homes along with two other structures. As of Wednesday, February 14, 2024, FENZ confirmed the deployment of 130 firefighters, supplemented by 11 helicopters equipped with monsoon buckets, and heavy machinery to construct firebreaks in a bid to contain the fire. Despite these efforts, the fire had not been contained by Wednesday night, leading to evacuations from 80 properties. However, no homes have been reported lost to the fire thus far. YouTube video FENZ said on Wednesday afternoon the helicopters will continue working until dark, and ground operations will continue through the night. Cordons remain in place and people are asked to stay well away from the area so traffic build-up doesn’t delay emergency services. Additionally, a public health warning has been issued by Te Whatu Ora National Public Health Service regarding smoke from the fire, highlighting the potential health risks for sensitive individuals, including those with heart or lung conditions, pregnant women, young children, and the elderly.By midnight UTC on February 15, 2024, FENZ updated the situation, noting that the fire had slightly reduced in size to 630 ha (1 556 acres). The firefighting resources had been significantly increased to 28 appliances, 15 helicopters, two fixed-wing aircraft, two bulldozers, and a digger. The fire’s advancement across Summit Rd posed new challenges, prompting efforts to contain it and protect nearby areas such as Kennedy Bush and Summit Rd through retardant drops.Local experts have commented on the conditions conducive to the wildfire’s development. Nathanael Melia, a climate change consultant, and George Perry, a professor at the University of Auckland, attributed the increased frequency and severity of wildfires to changing climate conditions and the current El Niño season.
Global Temperatures Breach 1.5C Warming Threshold for Full Year - The world’s average temperatures have been higher than the 1.5C global warming limit for 12 months in a row for the first time since records began, the European climate service Copernicus announced on Thursday. The news came after last month was confirmed to be the hottest January in history, with average global temperatures 1.66C above pre-industrial levels, marking the eighth month in a row that average air temperatures have topped all prior records for the first time. Between February 2023 and January 2024, global temperatures were 1.52C above the 19th century benchmark, higher than the critical threshold world leaders set in the 2015 Paris Agreement, the weather service said. While this does not signal a permanent breach of the limit, which scientists say is measured over decades, it sends a clear warning to humanity that we are approaching the point of no return much faster than expected.2023 was the hottest year on record, supercharged by the return of the El Niño, a weather phenomenon that has pushed temperatures off the charts around the world and that is expected to last well into 2024. Last year, the United Nations said the world is already on track to warm well above 2C, adding that we are running out of time to make the transformational changes requires to cap global temperature rises and that governments must do more by 2030 to ensure that warming is kept below 2C and ideally closer to 1.5C. “Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing,” said Samantha Burgess, Copernicus’ deputy director. Last month, the UK weather forecast service said that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels are forecast to build up faster than the trajectory required to stay on track with the 1.5C global warming threshold in 2024. The Met Office predicted that annual average CO2 concentrations at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii – home to the longest continuous record of atmospheric CO2 in the world, dating back to 1958 – will be 2.84 parts per million (ppm) higher in 2024 compared to last year, reaching a high of 423.6 ppm. The observed, long-term increase in atmospheric CO2 levels – which are now 50% higher than pre-Industrial Revolution – is solely attributable to human activities, mainly to the burning of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation but also to cement manufacturing, deforestation, and agriculture. And while natural carbon sinks such as plants and the ocean partially contribute to limit CO2 concentrations, their capacity to absorb and store carbon dioxide can vary from year to year due to short-term climate fluctuations, such as the ones driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO), a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. For instance, during El Niño conditions, the annual CO2 rise tends to be faster. The latest report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2025 for a chance to meet the 1.5C target.
Widespread liquefaction hampers reconstruction after M7.6 earthquake in Ishikawa, Japan - (video) In the wake of the January 1, 2024 M7.6 earthquake in Japan, the city of Wajima, located in Ishikawa Prefecture, has been severely impacted by liquefaction, a phenomenon that reduces the strength of soil due to seismic activity, particularly affecting coastal areas, severely impacting infrastructure and complicating relief efforts. Continuous aftershocks further hinder the restoration process, with houses, roads, and manholes notably affected. Governor Hiroshi Hase has requested a comprehensive investigation from the central government to address the escalating situation, emphasizing the need for seismic reinforcement of underground infrastructure. This has significantly hampered relief and restoration efforts in the region, with continuous aftershocks further complicating the situation. Liquefaction has led to visible and dramatic changes in the landscape, including protruding manholes, tilted or partially buried houses, and deformed roads. Fumihiko Imamura, a professor at Tohoku University’s International Research Institute of Disaster Science, explains that liquefaction occurs when moisture in the soil breaks loose from grains of soil due to the shaking caused by an earthquake. This process can cause water to rise up, leading to the surfacing of sand on land and the elevation of manholes. The phenomenon was not limited to Wajima but was also severe in cities like Suzu in Ishikawa, and extended across a wide area of the Sea of Japan coast, affecting regions from Uchinada near Kanazawa to Niigata and Joetsu in Niigata Prefecture. Notably, during the Great East Japan Earthquake in March 2011, areas far from the epicenter, such as reclaimed land in Urayasu, Chiba Prefecture, also experienced liquefaction, indicating the widespread potential for this phenomenon. YouTube video Ishikawa’s Governor, Hiroshi Hase, called for a comprehensive investigation into the liquefaction phenomenon, especially in Uchinada, recognizing that the town requires support for such a large-scale study. The restoration of manhole covers and underground sewage pipes, which are critical for the area’s infrastructure, necessitates specialized repairs. One of the overarching challenges highlighted by the earthquake’s aftermath is the lack of seismic reinforcement across many of Japan’s pipelines. As of the end of March 2022, out of 86 594 km of major pipelines requiring seismic reinforcement, only about 55% had been reinforced. Imamura points out that Japan’s disaster response tends to be reactive, based on experiences from previous events. However, the unique challenges posed by liquefaction, which can overlap with other disaster types like earthquakes and tsunamis, demand a more proactive and prepared approach. The reconstruction in the Tohoku region post-3/11 was accelerated by the tsunami’s cleansing effect, but the recovery from liquefaction presents a more complex challenge, requiring long-term efforts to solidify the ground and restore the affected areas fully.
Major X3.3 solar flare erupts behind the SW limb, S2 - Moderate solar radiation storm - video - A powerful solar flare measuring X3.3 erupted behind the SW limb of the Sun (AR 3575) at 13:14 UTC on February 9, 2024. The event started at 12:53 and ended at 13:32 UTC. This solar flare is the second most intense in Solar Cycle 25, following an X5.0 flare that occurred on January 31, 2023. A Type IV Radio Emission was detected at 13:07 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. In addition, a 10cm Radio Burst (Tenflare) with a peak flux of 1 000 sfu and lasting 27 minutes was associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. YouTube video While the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs), a solar radiation storm is very likely. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over South America, the Atlantic Ocean and Africa at the time of the flare. Potential effects (S2 – Moderate):
- Biological: Passengers and crew in high-flying aircraft at high latitudes may be exposed to elevated radiation risk.
- Satellite operations: Infrequent single-event upsets possible.
- Other systems: Small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions and navigation at polar cap locations possibly affected.
A Polar Cap Absorption Event (PCA) is in progress since 17:10 UTC today, SWPC forecasters said. PCA events result from solar energetic particles funneling down along magnetic field lines at Earth’s poles into the high atmosphere. These events can lead to high frequency (HF) communication degradation or loss at and near the polar regions. These energetic particles do not reach low enough into the atmosphere to be of any concern to the general public, so they do not need to be concerned.
Strong M9.0 solar flare erupts from geoeffective Region 3576 - A strong solar flare measuring M9.0 erupted at 23:07 UTC on February 10, 2024, from geoeffective Active Region 3576. The event started at 22:56 and ended at 23:14 UTC. An Earth-directed CME is likely. The event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 2 170 km/s. Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the Sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection (CME) is associated with a flare event. A Type IV Radio Emission was detected at 23:05 UTC. Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms. A 10cm Radio Burst (Tenflare) lasting 5 minutes and with a peak flux of 360 sfu was also associated with the flare event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. YouTube video Region 3576 is located in the center of the disk and has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic configuration — capable of producing more strong to major eruptions. Its location suggests any CME produced by it today and over the next couple days would likely be Earth-directed. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare. The flare comes one day after the old region (located beyond the SW limb) produced an X3.3 solar flare. Associated with this event was a 1 000 sfu Tenflare, a Type IV radio sweep and a partial-halo CME off the SW limb beginning at 13:25 UTC on February 9. The CME is not expected to have any Earth-directed component given its position beyond the SW limb. Other notable events over the past 36 hours include a long-duration M3.4 flare observed from a region beyond the ESE limb at 03:54 UTC today. A partial-halo CME was observed off the SE limb beginning at 03:36 UTC. The CME is not expected to have any Earth-directed component given its position beyond the SE limb. Region 3576 (S16W02, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced two M-class flares; an M1.2 at 18:00 UTC yesterday and an M1.5/Sf at 00:51 UTC today. A filament eruption centered near S37W02 beginning at 20:00 on February 8 was reanalyzed. A likely associated CME was observed off the S limb at 01:54 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery. Modeling results indicated the potential for a grazing blow mid to late on February 12. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began to increase at 14:00 UTC on February 9 following the X3.3 flare. S1 – Minor levels were reached at 15:30 UTC and S2 – Moderate at 18:15 UTC.
M6.5 solar flare erupts from AR 3576, G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm watch - A moderately strong M6.5 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3576 at 03:48 UTC on February 12, 2024. The event started at 03:23 and ended at 03:53 UTC. There were no radio signatures detected that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over SE Asia and Australia at the time of the flare. The event follows M9.0 at 23:07 UTC on February 10, also from AR 3576. While today’s flare might not have produced CME, the February 10th M9.0 appeared to produce two of them. The first was a full halo that could be fully seen at 00:00 UTC on February 11. A slower, narrow CME appeared at the same time with the bulk of the ejecta off the NNE limb. GOES SUVI 304 imagery appears to show the presence of the two CMEs and modeling indicated a likely arrival early on February 13. YouTube video Solar activity reached moderate levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC today due to an M1 flare at 22:45 UTC on February 11 from a region just beyond the NE limb. Regions 3576 (S16W23, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta), 3582 (N06E01, Cao/beta), and 3583 (N09E29, Dso/beta) were responsible only for C-class flaring. Slight decay occurred in the trailing spots of Region 3576 whereas Regions 3582 and 3583 showed growth and development. Other activity included an approximate 15-degree filament eruption centered near N28E19 that began at 06:40 UTC on February 11. A possible associated CME was observed off the NE limb at 18:12 UTC on February 11. Further analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available, SWPC forecasters said. Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class flares on February 12 to 14. The S2 – Moderate solar radiation storm that began at 18:15 UTC following the X3.3 flare on February 9, reached a peak flux of 187 pfu at 23:55 UTC on February 09, and ended at 03:55 UTC on February 11. Below S1 levels were observed since around 18:00 UTC yesterday. There is a chance for further S1 – Minor solar radiation storm enhancements due to the flare potential of Region 3576 as well as possible shock enhancements from multiple inbound CMEs. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal moderate levels through February 14. Solar wind parameters indicated the arrival of a CME, possibly a glancing blow related to the X3.3 flare on February 9. At 01:21 UTC on February 11, an interplanetary shock was observed in solar wind data. Wind speeds increased from approximately 350 km/s to 439 km/s, eventually reaching 634 km/s by 14:10 UTC. Total field increased from 4 nT to 19 nT initially, while the Bz component indicated a mostly negative trend to a low of -15 nT. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at Earth with a 40 nT deviation (Boulder Magnetometer) at 02:11 UTC yesterday. The total field decreased to under 10 nT by 05:34 UTC and remained in the 6-8 nT range through 00:30 UTC today. Looking ahead, a combination of the February 8 and 10 CMEs is expected to cause further enhancements in the solar wind beginning mid to late on February 12 and continuing through February 14. The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels over the past 24 hours. Enhancements from the February 8 and 10 CMEs are expected to begin mid to late on February 12 through early on February 13.
Proton flux rising after powerful farside eruption, S1 - Minor solar radiation storm - video - Proton flux started rapidly rising at 07:30 UTC on February 12, 2024, following what appears to be an eruption from the old Region 3575 – now traversing the farside of the Sun. A Type IV Radio Emission was detected at 06:35 UTC, suggesting a major eruption took place on the Sun. This signature is typically associated with strong coronal mass ejection and solar radiation storms. The source of the eruption is most likely old Active Region 3575 — the source of the major X3.3 solar flare on February 9. S1 – Minor solar radiation storm threshold was reached at 08:05 UTC and the proton flux continues rising. This event follows M6.5 solar flare at 03:48 UTC today from Region 3576.The S2 – Moderate solar radiation storm that began at 18:15 UTC following the X3.3 flare on February 9, reached a peak flux of 187 pfu at 23:55 UTC on February 09, and ended at 03:55 UTC on February 11. Below S1 levels were observed since around 18:00 UTC yesterday.
Three CMEs heading toward Earth, impact expected on February 13 - At least three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are heading toward Earth. The impact is expected early on February 13 (UTC), producing G2 – Moderate or stronger geomagnetic storming. Solar activity continues at moderate to high levels, following the X3.3 solar flare at 13:14 UTC on February 9. On February 12, models show at least 3 CMEs, produced on February 8 and 10, are heading our way, with the impact expected between 03:00 and 05:00 UTC on February 13. There appear to be two CMEs associated with the M9.0 solar flare on February 10 from Region 3576, SWPC forecasters said. The first was a full halo that could be fully seen by 00:00 UTC on February 11. A slower, narrow CME appeared at the same time with the bulk of the ejecta off the NNE limb. The geomagnetic field forecast calls for unsettled to G1 – Minor storming on February 12, increasing to active to G2 – Moderate storming on February 13. Unsettled to G1 – Minor conditions are expected on February 14 as CME activity persists. Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels with a slight chance for X-class flares through February 14.
Major X2.5 solar flare erupts from AR 3576, producing large CME - (video) An impulsive solar flare measuring X2.5 erupted from Active Region 3576 (beta-gamma) at 06:53 UTC on February 16, 2024. The event started at 06:42 and ended at 06:58 UTC. This is the fourth strongest solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 — after X5.0 on December 31, 2023, X3.3 on February 9, 2024, and X2.8 on December 14, 2023. A Type II (estimated velocity of 2 674 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions were detected at 06:53 UTC, indicating a strong coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar radiation storm were associated with the event. In addition, a 10cm Radio Burst (Tenflare) lasting 5 minutes and with a peak flux of 420 sfu was also associated with the event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. The location of this region (SW limb) does not favor Earth-directed CMEs but S1 or greater solar radiation storm is expected. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over eastern Africa, the Middle East, India, China, the Indian Ocean, and western Australia at the time of the flare.
Asteroid 2024 CY1 flew past Earth at 0.31 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2024 CY1 flew past Earth at 07:24 UTC on February 12, 2024, at a distance of 0.31 LD / 0.00081 AU (121 148 km / 75 278 miles). This is the 10th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year and the third so far this month. 2024 CY1 was first observed at Pan-STARRS 2, Haleakala, Hawaii on February 9 — three days before its close approach. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 3.8 and 8.4 m (12.5 – 27.5 feet).
Asteroid 2024 CF7 to fly past Earth at 0.28 LD - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2024 CF7 will fly past Earth at a distance of 0.28 LD / 0.00071 AU (105 880 km / 65 791 miles) at 05:12 UTC on February 17, 2024. This is the 14th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance since the start of the year. It was first observed at Mt. Lemmon Survey on February 15, two days before its close approach. 2024 CF7 belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter of 3.5 – 7.8 m (11.5 – 25.6 feet).
JPMorgan, State Street quit climate group, BlackRock steps back -- (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase's and State Street's investment arms on Thursday both quit a global investor coalition pushing companies to rein in climate-damaging emissions, while BlackRock said it has transferred its membership to its international arm, limiting its involvement. The decisions together remove nearly $14 trillion of total assets from efforts to coordinate Wall Street action on tackling climate change and came after the coalition, known as Climate Action 100+, or CA100+, asked signatories to take stronger action over laggards. Financial firms have faced growing pressure from Republican politicians over their membership of such groups, amid accusations that committing to shared action could be a breach of antitrust law or fiduciary duty. None of the firms cited politics among their motivations. A spokesperson for State Street Global Advisors (SSGA), which manages $4.1 trillion, said the new priorities set by CA100+ threatened its ability to act independently. The priorities, adopted last June, call for CA100+ signatories to engage with policymakers and for some to publish details on their talks with companies towards the goal of getting them to lower emissions to zero on a net basis by 2050. The changes, however, were "not consistent with our independent approach to proxy voting and portfolio company engagement," said State Street spokesperson Randall Jensen. JPMorgan's fund arm said it had decided not to renew its membership of CA100+ after building up its own investment stewardship capabilities. The Financial Times first reported the news. The unit manages $3.1 trillion. BlackRock said it is no longer a member of the CA100+ but rather has shifted its membership in CA100+ to BlackRock International. "As BlackRock made clear when signing up as a member of CA100+ in 2020, at all times the firm maintains independence acting on behalf of clients, including in choosing which issuers to engage with, and how to vote proxies," the company said in a press release. It also said it would add a new engagement and proxy voting option to give clients a way to prioritize climate goals. BlackRock's move effectively removes $6.6 trillion, or two-thirds of its total assets, from the pool represented by CA100+. Kirsten Spalding, vice president of the Ceres Investor Network, which oversees the CA100+'s North American efforts, said the group had expected some signatories to leave as it adopted its new priorities, and that it would continue its efforts despite the loss of the big asset managers. "We knew that the focus on making sure there was movement from certain companies was going to be uncomfortable for some investors," Spalding said in an interview.
Heat pumps outsold gas furnaces again last year — and the gap is growing 0 Heat pumps outsold gas furnaces. Again. According to data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute released last week, Americans bought 21 percent more heat pumps in 2023 than the next-most popular heating appliance, fossil gas furnaces. That’s the biggest lead heat pumps have opened up over conventional furnaces in the two decades of data available from the trade group.As electric appliances, heat pumps help slash planet-warming emissions from a major source — space heating — while also letting consumers ditch the health-harming fumes from gas and heating oil in their homes. They’re almost magically efficient; they can routinely produce the same amount of heat as a fossil-fired system using just a third or a quarter of the energy.Heat pumps’ growing popularity compared to furnaces is “really good news,” said Alex Amend, director of communications at pro-electrification advocacy group Rewiring America. The U.S. is “absolutely moving in the right direction.”Last June, Rewiring put together a year-by-year sales growth trajectory for heat pumps that would be fast enough to take adoption from the 16 percent of U.S. homes they’re installed in as of 2023 to all projected 140 million homes by midcentury. Rewiring America’s figures and the data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute aren’t directly comparable; AHRI tracks units sold while Rewiring tracks households. But even so, it’s clear that “we still have a ways to go” for gas furnace sales to fall to zero, said Wael Kanj, research associate at Rewiring America.Sales for both heat pumps and fossil gas furnaces were down relative to 2023 due to supply-chain bottlenecks and a double punch of inflation and high interest rates that tempered consumer spending across the board. But heat pumps continued to widen a lead that first emerged in 2022, when they surged ahead of gas furnaces by 12 percent and topped 4 million units sold for the first time.
Bill could boost Florida’s ‘renewable’ fuel industry There is booming interest across Florida in turning cow manure, urban sewage and other nasty stuff once considered waste into “renewable” gas. If used instead of oil and other fossil fuels, such alternative sources of energy could, at least potentially, help slow emissions driving climate change and the rising seas that threaten communities up and down the coast. But such experimental projects come at considerable costs — costs that under a bill being considered by Florida lawmakers would be passed on to consumers, not the companies that stand to profit from the operations. “We want to be energy diverse in this state and this bill very simply wants to promote that type of investment,” the bill’s sponsor, Sen. Nick DiCeglie, R-St. Petersburg, said during a Senate committee meeting last month. Energy policy watchdog organizations, however, are concerned that the bill amounts to a sweetheart deal for utility and gas companies that will keep the state tethered to gas combustion. They argue that “renewable gas” infrastructure also could be used to pipe and pump fossil fuels and the costs of its construction could be funded by Florida residents through likely hikes in power bills. “We all know the economy has been tough and people are struggling to make ends meet,” said Zayne Smith, the director of advocacy at AARP Florida. “Any increase in a power bill is a significant blow financially.” DiCeglie said his bill doesn’t specifically address potential rate increases or decreases. But “you could make the argument that it could lower bills in the long run — there’s a big question mark there,” during the regulated industries Senate committee meeting. If the bill passes, it would be left up to the Public Service Commission to approve what’s known as “cost recovery” — an option for utilities to pass on the costs to customers for a major project such as damage recovery after a storm. Critics say they don’t see a reality where millions or even billions of dollars in alternative energy projects wouldn’t hit the pocketbooks of Floridians. Standing law says utilities shouldn’t make a profit off the purchase of fuel to supply power in Florida. But the proposal would allow utilities to earn a profit by charging more for more expensive fuels like renewable gas. “That’s a recipe to make Florida the most expensive state in the nation,”
More than a quarter of energy storage systems have fire detection and suppression defects: report -Battery energy storage systems may contain more defects and deviate from industry best practices more often than expected, according to six years of factory quality audits by industry advisory firm Clean Energy Associates. More than a quarter of inspected energy storage systems, totaling more than 30 GWh, had issues related to fire detection and suppression, such as faulty smoke and temperature sensors, according to the report. While the industry has generally focused on cell integrity, system level issues accounted for nearly half of the defects identified by Clean Energy Associates. A significant percentage of the world's energy storage systems could contain defects that pose a risk of thermal runaway and fire, according to data released last week by Clean Energy Associates. The advisory firm has compiled factory quality audit data on 64% of tier one lithium-ion battery energy storage system manufacturers over the past six years, identifying more than 1,300 manufacturing defects in the process. They found that 26% of energy storage systems contained fire suppression system defects, while 18% had defects in thermal management systems. Tier one systems are considered suitable for use in EVs manufactured outside of China, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Faulty actuators that did not respond to the command to release a fire extinguishing agent were a relatively common finding in the Clean Energy Associates audits. The auditors also commonly encountered incorrect wiring in smoke sensors and temperature sensors, and often found fire alarm abort buttons unresponsive. Failure to deactivate a false alarm could lead to unnecessary releases of fire extinguishing agent or unwanted sprinkler system activation, which could cause serious damage to energy storage equipment, according to Clean Energy Associates. More than half of the issues identified by Clean Energy Associates were system-level defects related to improper system integration procedures, according to the report. These defects include issues such as improper wiring and coolant leaks due to defective valves and loose pipe connections. However, defects in the battery cells themselves accounted for just under a third of the issues identified by Clean Energy Associates. Cell-level defects typically pose greater risk to energy storage system performance and safety than system-level issues, according to Clean Energy Associates. Common problems include lack of calibration and welding defects, as well as electrolyte leakage, according to the report. A final 23% of issues identified were related to battery module assembly, according to the report. Most module-level defects could be attributed to manual production lines, according to Clean Energy Associates.
- Rising electric vehicle charging loads could threaten bulk power system reliability, depending on how EVs are operated, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. concluded in a white paper published Thursday. There were 1.2 million EVs sold in the U.S. last year, and experts anticipate continued growth.
- The solution is for EV and charging system manufacturers to boost their collaboration with electric utilities in order to establish performance criteria and standards for “grid-friendly EV charging methods,” NERC said.
- The EV sector and utility companies must stand up “uniform programs across the country to enable fast, reliable installation of EV chargers,” Blink Charging Chief Technology Officer Harjinder Bhade said in an email. Those could include tariffs that align charging with clean energy generation and the potential for EVs to send power back to the grid, he said.
While the early load impacts of EV adoption have materialized at the local level — a few new vehicles can stress neighborhood feeders, say experts — NERC is concerned that as penetration levels rise, there may be reliability issues on the bulk power system as well.EVs were 7.6% of new vehicle sales in 2023, and more than 8% of new sales in the fourth quarter. Though growth has slowed somewhat, Cox Automotive said it expects EV sales to surpass 10% of new sales in 2024.“As the rapid electrification of the fleet continues, increased cross-sector awareness, collaboration, innovation and information sharing will be essential to closing these knowledge gaps, meeting future demand and ensuring grid reliability, resilience and security,” Soo Jin Kim, NERC’s vice president of engineering and standards, said in a statement.EV charging systems can hurt voltage recovery if they do not detect grid faults fast enough, and the study found some chargers can be delayed in returning to normal consumption patterns following a grid disruption.Transmission planners "will need to modify their planning criteria to indicate the types of charger performance criteria that are grid-friendly for their planning area,” NERC concluded. “Different parts of North America will likely have different criteria for this, and it may be possible to address these criteria with EV charging software updates.”“Vehicle manufacturers, the electric industry, and policymakers must increase collaboration to close knowledge gaps and address reliability concerns and benefits,” the report recommended.EV charging experts said they largely agreed with the report’s conclusions, and believe the next generation of technologies will make managing EV charging easier.“Establishing uniform tariffs and programs that enable the growth of vehicle-to-everything technology beyond trial periods is a great way to move this shared work forward,” Blink Charging’s Bhade said. “This emerging tech allows for the transfer of electricity from EV batteries back onto the grid and ultimately to end users as they need it.”The capability of an EV to send power back to the grid or a building — vehicle-to-everything — will allow EVs to become a source of electric power on the distribution system. NERC noted that its study did not evaluate the impacts from vehicle-to-grid capabilities, and solely considers impacts “in response to EVs when they are in charging mode.” However, it did recommend industry develop “more specific models to represent [vehicle-to-grid] behaviors that are widely implemented in software platforms.” “The current models are not a good representation of both reduction of load and increase in generation and, as such, a generic aggregate model that can accomplish all aspects of the EV representation should be explored,” NERC said. The utility industry “needs new solutions to manage EV demand,”Utilidata President and Chief Operating Officer Jess Melanson wrote in an email. “This requires utilities to be able to capture and understand granular real-time data where EVs are charging and their impact on the grid.” The company offers a platform known as Karman that uses local artificial intelligence-driven models to predict charging behavior.
FERC, NERC to analyze power sector performance during January winter storms --Federal energy regulators and the North American grid reliability watchdog have launched a joint review of the power sector’s performance during a prolonged and widespread January cold snap.While the bulk power system weathered the storms without major incident, operators “in some regions did experience challenges in maintaining system reliability,” the North American Electric Reliability Corp. said in the Tuesday announcement.The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and NERC’s Regional Entities will also participate in the review, which will look at “winter preparation activities and gather information to help guide future winter storm preparations and operations.”From Jan. 10 to Jan. 16 a pair of winter storms impacted regions across the United States and Canada. The grid operator for most of Texas posted multiple winter peak demand records and twice called on consumers to reduce power usage.The FERC-NERC review will examine the progress made to improve grid reliability since Winter Storm Uri in 2021 and Winter Storm Elliott in 2022. Results of the study are expected by June, they said.The Electric Reliability Council of Texas grid came close to a total collapse during Uri in 2021, and ultimately almost 250 people died amid rolling blackouts. The storm led to widespread efforts to improve power reliability in the state.At one point during Elliott in 2022, almost a quarter of the PJM Interconnection’s generating capacity was unexpectedly offline.FERC last year approved new cold weather reliability standards for U.S. generators. Still, much of the U.S. bulk power system faces an elevated risk of blackouts in extreme winter weather, NERC warned in November.
FERC’s Allison Clements Says She Won’t Seek 2nd Term in June - Marcellus Drilling News - The most radical Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) commissioner currently serving, Allison Clements (a former lawyer for the uber-radicals of the National Resources Defense Council), told her fellow Democrat leftists at POLITICO that she will not seek re-election to a second term at the commission when her term ends on June 30 of this year. Which is great news! However, if the Bidenistas don’t nominate someone to take her position (and that of two other empty seats), FERC would only have two commissioners — not enough to vote on projects. Lack of a quorum will halt important work at the agency.
FERC Chairman Willie Phillips Finally Drops “Acting” from Title - Marcellus Drilling News - The Bidenistas at the White House kept Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Chairman Willie Phillips on a VERY short chain for a VERY long time. Phillips was named “Acting” Chairman of FERC in January 2023 when Richard “Dick” Glick exited stage left (see Willie Phillips Takes Over as Acting FERC Chairman, Dick Glick Gone). FERC could not produce the documentation to confirm Phillips’ appointment as Acting Chairman for more than eight months. Finally, under threat of a lawsuit and a court order from the Institute for Energy Research (IER), FERC (or rather the White House) produced a short one-page letter signed by Biden that said Phillips is full-blown Chairman, with no “Acting” in the title (see Turns Out Willie Phillips Isn’t Just Acting – He’s FERC Chairman). A few days later, the White House reversed course and said Phillips is still just Acting (see Biden Flip Flop – FERC’s Phillips Still Just “Acting” Chairman). Finally, after over a year, Phillips is no longer just Acting…
House bill would connect Texas’s ERCOT with national grid - Reps. Greg Casar (D-Texas) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) have introduced legislation that would connect Texas’s self-contained grid with the rest of the nation, three years after extreme winter weather knocked out the grid and killed hundreds of Texans. Casar and Ocasio-Cortez announced the legislation Wednesday, the third anniversary of the winter storm. The Connect the Grid Act would place the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) under the purview of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). It would also require the Energy Department and FERC to conduct a study on the benefits of connection with Mexico. Casar said that if the bill had been law at the time, “We could have kept millions out of people out of these mass power outages if we connect the grid to the rest of the country … it’s called supporting one another, it’s something we believe in in Texas and it’s something we believe in in the United States of America.” The Texas Democrat noted that parts of Texas that are close enough to state borders to have interstate connections, such as El Paso in the west and Beaumont in the east, were able to avoid much of the loss of power caused by the storm. During the storm, “we saw the impact on everyday Texans, on everyday Americans, the people who are most vulnerable,” Ocasio-Cortez added. While both Casar and Rep. Troy Carter (D-La.) took shots at Gov. Greg Abbott (R) for his management of ERCOT and at Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) for flying to Cancun, Mexico, with his family during the storm, Ocasio-Cortez also took aim at Texas grid operators for profiting off of the storm. The people killed during the storm, she said, “died not just because of what happened on a climate level, because of what happened at a structural and leadership level … it happened because of greed.” Casar also noted that Texas leads the nation in the production of wind and solar energy, meaning interconnecting the state with the rest of the country could lower overall national carbon emissions. A Senate version of the measure is sponsored by Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), who has frequently collaborated with Ocasio-Cortez on environmental legislation. Its House cosponsors include numerous allies of Ocasio-Cortez and Casar within the progressive wing of the caucus, including Reps. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and Maxwell Frost (D-Fla.). The bill is unlikely to receive a vote in the GOP-majority House.
The California Energy Scam: Newsom’s Actions Of ‘Leaking’ Emissions To Poorer Developing Countries – OpEd – Eurasia Review - In California, Governor Gavin Newsom has been vocal about his commitment to reducing in-state greenhouse gas emissions, but much of his “success” has been accomplished by “leaking” those emissions to offshore locations with miniscule environmental regulations compared to California. The state also has the highest poverty rate in the nation, the highest state income tax in the nation, the highest gas taxes in the nation, and record homelessness. California is probably the most environmentally regulated location on the planet. The state also has the highest poverty rate in the nation, the highest state income tax in the nation, the highest gas taxes in the nation, and record homelessness. The challenges are that:
- The states’ population needs cost effective products in their daily lives.
- The Governor supports manufacturing in poorer developing countries with minimal environmental regulations, i.e. “leakage” of emissions to others to achieve cost effective products for its population.
By “leaking” emissions to other countries, California successfully reduces its in-state emissions, but effectively induces net increases to the world’s emissions! Newsom’s actions of “leaking” emissions to poorer developing countries violate many sections of the written legal framework of The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB32). The written legal “green” framework statutes in California that Newsom circumvents are:
- A California statute passed in 1970, theCalifornia Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), that was signed into law by then-Governor Ronald Reagan and was the beginning of the State’s “green” movement.
- Then in 2006, the passage of theCalifornia Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) marked a watershed moment in California’s history. By requiring in law, a sharp reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, California set the stage for its transition to a sustainable, (in-state) low-carbon future.
Of those two voluminous documents, CEQA and AB32, Governor Newsom has chosen just five words from AB32 Section 38562 (4) “reduce toxic air contaminant emissions” as the foundation of his mandates, and his personal emission policy to clean the “air bubble” inside California borders by leaking those emissions to others outside the boundaries of California. Here are a few sections from AB 32, the California Global Warming Solutions Act that demonstrate the Governor’s actions that increase the “leakage” of emissions to developing countries to clean the “air bubble” around California:
1. AB32 section 38564 states: “The state board shall consult with other states, and the federal government, and other nations to identify the most effective strategies and methods to reduce greenhouse gases, manage greenhouse gas control programs, and to facilitate the development of integrated and cost-effective regional, national, and international greenhouse gas reduction programs”.
- A consequence of the renewable electricity (RE) movement is that most of the exotic minerals and metals needed by EV batteries, wind turbine, and solar panels are being mined in developing countries with virtually no environmental laws nor labor laws, thus the exploitation of people of yellow, brown, and black skin, and the environmental degradation to their local landscapes, all “unseen” by California eyes.
- Contrary to the wording in AB32 section 38564 “facilitate the development of integrated and cost-effective regional, national, and international greenhouse gas reduction programs”, government sponsored “SUBSIDIES” are providing financial incentives for those poorer developing countries to CONTINUE their unabated emissions, humanity atrocities to citizens of yellow, brown, and black skin, and environmental degradation to their lands, again “unseen by California eyes!!!!
2. AB32 section 38562 (2) states: “Ensure that activities undertaken to comply with the regulations do not disproportionately impact low-income communities.”
- Back in 2021, the Pulitzer Prize nominated book “Clean Energy Exploitations – Helping Citizens Understand the Environmental and Humanity Abuses That Support Clean Energy. The discusses the lack of transparency to the world of the green movement’s impact upon humanity exploitations in the developing countries that are mining for the exotic minerals and metals required to create the batteries needed to store “green energy”. In these developing countries, these mining operations disproportionately impact low-income communities and exploit child labor and are responsible for the most egregious human rights’ violations of vulnerable minority populations. These operations are also directly destroying the planet through environmental degradation.
- One year later in 2022, President Biden provided validation to the books’ message when the Biden administration declared October 4, 2022, that batteries from China may be tainted by child labor, a move that could have upended the electric vehicle industry while giving fresh ammunition to critics of the White House’s bizarre climate policies. However, our government leaders believe that zero emissions at any cost is more important than the environmental and humanity abuses that support “clean” electricity.
3. AB32 section 38562 (8) states: “minimize leakage”.
- Newsom, by continually decreasing in-state oil production, Newsom’s emissions policies continue to force California, the 4th largest economy in the world, to be the only state in contiguous America that imports most of its crude oil feedstock to refineries from foreign countries. That dependence, via maritime transportation from foreign nations for the state’s crude oil energy demands, hasincreased imported crude oil from 5 percent in 1992 to almost 60 percent today of total consumption.
- Since 1995, California’s crude oil demands have been increasing year over year, except for pandemic years. But given that maritime transportation is one of the greatest contributors of GHG emissions, the state continues to “leak” emissions to others outside the California clean air bubble.
- Rather than drill for oil in California or access the oil offshore via “slant drilling” techniques from land, in 2021, imported foreign crude oil approached 300,000 barrels per year. It took 150 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) oil tankers, each with 2 million barrels of crude oil, which were required to meet the demands of California. Just another example of “leaking” emissions to others just to keep in-state emissions low.
- More to the point, why aren’t we drilling in California? Won’t our drilling practices be more environmentally responsible? And won’t it benefit the environment to not have dozens of oil tankers perpetually belching bunker fuel exhaust off the coast of Long Beach, and that only after they’ve belched their way across the Pacific Ocean?
Is it ethical for the California Governor to blatantly not abide by his own laws and violate his own states’ legal framework to set his personal emissions policies?His actions have raised concerns among legal experts and environmentalists, as they conflict with the state’s existing legal framework statutes which prioritize the affordability of products over their international environmental impact.President Joe Biden and California’s Governor Newsom continue to support subsidies to procure products from locations around the world that have minimal environmental regulations, when those subsidies are providing financial incentives to increase worldwide emissions by manufacturing offshore to countries where there are no environmental regulations and emissions are rampant.I personally thought that President Biden and California Governor Newsom had higher moral and ethical standards that would stop them from financially encouraging developing countries from continuing their exploitation of the poor with yellow, brown, and black skin, and further environmental degradation to the landscapes in those distant developing countries, and uncontrollable emissions “over there” just to support clean air in “our backyards”!
Mexico Nearshoring Boom to Require Massive Energy Investment, Experts Say - Mexico will need to attract more than $41 billion in investment to generate an estimated 37 GW of additional electricity capacity required to meet the increased energy demand anticipated by nearshoring, Abraham Zamora, president of the Mexican Energy Association (AME), said during a recent presentation in Monterrey. Nearshoring, or the relocation of manufacturing and supply chains to Mexico, is forecast to be a generational economic growth opportunity that could bring as much as $50 billion of investment and create 4 million jobs in the country. The nearshoring push is being driven by the United States’ reduction of Chinese imports and increased reliance on Mexican goods. On Feb. 7, the U.S. Commerce Department released data showing that, for the first time in more than two...
Cleveland summit spotlights growing corporate interest in clean energy projects - Companies have a smoother road for getting management to greenlight clean energy projects now than they did five years ago, thanks to corporate climate commitments, federal incentives and more.And if last month’s turnout of more than 800 people for the Greater Cleveland Partnership’s sustainability summit is any guide, businesses want support and guidance on navigating a process that is more compelling yet also more complex than it was years ago. The Jan. 23 program drew twice as many attendees as last year’s inaugural event.Sustainability “is a major market trend at this point. It’s a massive market opportunity,” said Baiju Shah, president and chief executive officer for the Greater Cleveland Partnership, which is one of the United States’ largest metropolitan chambers of commerce. At the same time, sustainability is crucial if businesses want to stay competitive in a global marketplace, he said.Roughly a third of the Greater Cleveland Partnership’s largest member companies have pledged to be carbon neutral by 2050, according to Emily Keller, GCP’s manager of sustainability initiatives. And, she added, practically all member companies have committed to some environmental sustainability practices.Those pledges and goals have an impact when it comes to getting the green light for clean energy projects, especially when companies report on their progress towards environmental, social and governance objectives.“Explaining an energy efficiency project [to management] or even being able to get a renewable energy project across the finish line five years ago was much different than what it is today,” said Rebecca Karason, the environment and sustainability director for Huntington National Bank. Decisions on three solar arrays for the company were based on economic factors, but a good part of the decision also hinged on the company’s renewable energy commitment, she said.Ideally, clean energy projects add to businesses’ bottom lines.“At its core, the development and the analysis of these projects is no different than any other capital project, but it is a complicated process,” said Gino Scipione, whose practice with Cohen & Company centers on compliance and financial reporting.For any project, “you have to be able to prove at its core that it’s going to return value,” Scipione said. Most projects are capital expenditures, so for accounting purposes they get capitalized and depreciated over time, instead of being treated as an expense for a single year. How much comes from equity versus debt financing affects the calculations, too.
Carbon dioxide storage hub seeks 80,000 acres across Western Pa., Ohio and West Virginia - Landmen are knocking on doors again in southwestern Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio and West Virginia. This time, it’s not to make deals for what’s already in the ground, but for the empty spaces that could hold the region’s industrial waste — the carbon dioxide that comes out of smokestacks across the tri-state region. Omaha, Neb.-based Tenaska is developing a Tri-State CCS Hub. CCS stands for carbon capture and sequestration, but Tenaska’s role will be in the second category. Its vision involves collecting carbon dioxide captured by industrial plants and injecting it into 20 to 30 wells across the three states, with three wells to be sited in Washington County. Underground, that carbon dioxide would spread out across some 80,000 acres, a storage field capable of hosting 5 million tons of CO2 a year for 30 years. That would be roughly the equivalent of the carbon dioxide emitted from U.S. Steel’s Edgar Thomson Works and Shell’s petrochemical complex. Capturing the carbon will be left to the facilities that produce it, like steel mills, power plants, or cement kilns. “We’ve got active negotiations with lots of landowners across eight counties in three states,” said Bret Estep, vice president of development for Tenaska. The reception so far has been “excellent,” he said. “I’ve been very impressed.” Last fall, Tenaska submitted a proposal to Washington County to option a few surface acres for a well and 1,377 acres under Cross Creek County Park for carbon storage. According to a document submitted to the county’s planning commission, Tenaska was offering a bonus payment of $50 per acre for the option of CO2 storage which, if exercised, would then yield another bonus of $350 per acre for pore rights. The offer also included an annual payment per acre, starting at $50 the first year and increasing by 3% each year for the next 30. The company’s calculations showed Washington County would receive $3.9 million over the next three decades. Cross Creek County Park is already peppered by shale gas wells drilled by Range Resources Corp., a point noted by the staff of the planning commission, which briefly discussed the proposal at its Oct. 4 meeting. The commissioners decided to table the proposal while its staff researches potential impact to the environment and public safety, logistical issues and bonding and benefits, according to the meeting minutes. Other than that, the effort has been mostly under the radar. Tenaska said it has secured about a dozen sites for injection wells across the three-state footprint and thousands of acres of pore rights so far, but declined to disclose specifics or give a capital cost for the entire project. The Tri-State CCS Hub is one of three projects that Tenaska has announced publicly, as it pursues half a dozen others, mostly in the South. The farthest along of the public efforts is the Longleaf CCS initiative in Mobile, Ala., which involves four carbon storage wells. A permit application for a CO2 injection well was submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency last year and is in the midst of technical review. Its Pineywoods CCS project in Texas isn’t far behind. That one also involves four storage wells in east Texas, with the ability to sequester 5 million tons of CO2 annually. The Tri-State hub that straddles the Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia borders is being designed to hold the same amount of carbon dioxide, but because of the area’s complicated and uneven geology, it will require four to five times as many injection wells, Mr. Estep said.Formations that the company is targeting in Appalachia lie somewhere between 4,000 and 13,000 feet under the surface. These are dolomites and sandstones — porous rock layers than can soak up a lot of CO2 and are capped by hard, impermeable layers that serve as a lid.“In Alabama and Texas, that geology is simpler. If you think of a coastal plain, it’s nice, flat, level. It used to be seabed,” he said. “In central Appalachia, there was lots of upheaval where the mountains were made.”He compared it to a layer cake. In the Gulf Coast, the layers are thick and uniform. In the Ohio River Valley, they look more psychedelic, rising and falling, narrowing in one area and bunching up in another.Mr. Estep said Tenaska was pulled into this region — geological complexities and all — by the strong demand from industrial facilities that are looking for a way to abate their emissions.Some may be feeling pressure from shareholders to capture and store carbon, others could be anticipating a requirement to do so in the future. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency put forward a rule last year that would limit CO2 emissions at powerplants, essentially mandating any gas or coal plants to be outfitted with carbon capture at some point in the future.“We’re actually seeing it as an economic development tool,” Mr. Estep said. A place to dispose of CO2 emissions is a big plus in site selection, he said, and for some companies it might be a must-have.In December, the influential EFI Foundation, founded by former Department of Energy Secretary Ernie Moniz, identified 112 facilities in the Ohio River Valley that would be the likeliest customers for a carbon capture and storage cluster. The study looked at facilities other than power plants, focusing on those that run frequently and where it’s technically feasible to capture CO2. It noted the “heavy presence of petroleum and natural gas systems and iron and steel production,” estimating that 8.3 million metric tons of CO2 could be captured and stored from emitters across the tri-state area. The biggest single chunk, 3.6 million metric tons, could come from oil and gas infrastructure, the study found.
Landmen Knocking Doors in PA, OH, WV to Sign for CCS, Pore Rights -Marcellus Drilling News -- The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has an excellent article reporting on an effort by Tenaska, one of the largest privately operated companies in the U.S., to build a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) hub spanning tens of thousands of acres in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. Landmen are “knocking on doors again” in all three states, looking to sign up landowners to store carbon dioxide deep underground. We have the details below, including how much money Tenaska is paying as a signing bonus and how much is on offer (per acre) each year.
Ex-First Energy executives, Ohio utility regulator charged by state in bailout and bribery scandal - Ohio law enforcement authorities on Monday filed numerous felony charges against two former First Energy executives and a former top utility regulator in what has been called the biggest bribery and money-laundering scandal in Ohio history. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost announced scores of felony charges against a former regulator who also has been charged federally, and against two people who haven’t — former top executives for Akron-based FirstEnergy whom the company admitted paid more than $60 million in bribes between 2016 and 2020 in exchange for a $1.3 billion ratepayer bailout.Charged were Sam Randazzo, former chairman of the Public Utilities Commission. Already facing felony charges in federal court, the state indictment charges him with 22 more, including grand theft, bribery, and money laundering. The indictment accuses him of taking bribes from FirstEnergy from 2010 until just before he became chairman of the commission in 2019. Also charged were former FirstEnergy CEO Chuck Jones and Vice President Michael Dowling. Between them, they face 22 felony charges similar to those faced by Randazzo.“This indictment is about more than one piece of legislation,” Yost said Monday. “It is about the hostile capture of a significant portion of Ohio’s state government by deception, betrayal, and dishonesty.”The state charges that were announced Monday didn’t deal with much of the activity addressed in the federal case. They instead focused on the relationship between Jones, Dowling, and Randazzo between 2010 and early 2019, when they paid him $4.33 million just as he was becoming the state’s top utility regulator. Back in 2019, former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder took $61 million in bribes in exchange for legislation to give FirstEnergy a $1 billion bailout, named House Bill 6, all at the expense of the ratepayers. The scheme was revealed in three main ways — two separate whistleblowers and a phone wiretap.In March 2023, a jury found Householder and former Ohio Republican Party leader Matt Borges guilty beyond a reasonable doubt for their involvement in the racketeering scheme that left four men guilty and another dead by suicide.In late June that year, federal judge Timothy Black sentenced Householder to 20 years in prison. Borges got 5 years. The two surviving defendants took plea agreements early on, helping the FBI, and are still awaiting their sentencing. The feds are asking for 0-6 months for them.Until Monday, only federal indictments had been handed out.HB 6 mainly benefited FirstEnergy’s struggling nuclear power plants, but those provisions were later repealed. There are aspects of the bill still in place, though.The Ohio Valley Electric Corporation (OVEC) got a handout from the scheme. It expanded a bailout of the OVEC plants and required Ohioans to pay for two 1950s-era coal plants— one in the Southern area of the state and the other in Indiana. The main beneficiaries of this are American Electric Power Company (AEP), Duke Energy and AES Ohio.Despite this scandal becoming public years ago, ethics laws in the state have not changed to prevent schemes like this from happening.There are numerous bipartisan efforts to repeal HB 6 totally and to put forward ethics laws. None are going anywhere, it seems.
Ohio indictments provide a better picture of squalid relationships that spurred massive scandal --An Ohio grand jury has handed up a 44-count indictment against three players in what is likely the biggest bribery scandal in state history. And when the 50-page indictment was unveiled Monday, it provided new details about a decade of payoffs and conflicts as one of them — who became the state’s top regulator — allegedly did a huge electric utility’s bidding. The indictment concerns a $1.3 billion dollar bailout that Akron-based FirstEnergy has already admitted to the federal government that it paid more than $60 million in bribes to purchase. Former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, and former state GOP Chairman Matt Borges are serving federal prison sentences for their roles in the 2019 passage of the bailout and thedirty-but-succesful fight to thwart a voter-led repeal. When federal prosecutors in 2021 charged those two and three others, they said their investigation continued. But it wasn’t until December that they charged another in the case — Sam Randazzo, a lawyer and longtime energy consultant whom Gov. Mike DeWine nominated to chair the state’s top regulator, the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio.That left the people who paid the alleged bribes — FirstEnergy’s top executives — uncharged in a scheme that took place more than four years ago. All that changed Monday when Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost announced state charges against Randazzo and former First Energy CEO Chuck Jones and former Vice President Michael Dowling for their alleged roles in the criminal conspiracy. The three were arraigned in Akron on Tuesday and each pleaded not guilty.They were charged in an indictment that alleged shady dealings between the them stretching back 13 years.“It all began with a well-lawyered theft in 2010,” the indictment said.It went on to describe how Randazzo was general counsel for a group of large FirstEnergy customers — the Industrial Energy Users of Ohio — while also working as a FirstEnergy consultant. Only, the Industrial Energy Users didn’t know that Randazzo was also being paid by the company they were paying him to fight, the indictment said.It accuses Randazzo of settling the industries’ claims against FirstEnergy on terms acceptable to FirstEnergy and running the settlements through Randazzo-controlled shell companies where he took a skim — again, unknown to the industrial energy users.“His clients, the industrial members of IEU-Ohio, did not know he was a consultant for FirstEnergy,” the indictment said. “Randazzo did not tell them. Years later, some of the money would make its way to IEU-Ohio. Some of it would end up in Randazzo’s pocket.”The Industrial Energy Users appear to have engaged in some cynical conduct of their own, however. The indictment describes a 2015 agreement in which FirstEnergy was to pay Randazzo’s company $8.5 million for “consulting services.”It was really a cash “side deal” in which FirstEnergy paid the industrial users to drop their objections to a rate hike FirstEnergy wanted, supposedly in the name of “energy security,” the indictment said. In other words, prosecutors said that with Randazzo’s facilitation, FirstEnergy paid off a wealthy, powerful group of electricity users in order to raise rates on everybody else.Such arrangements proved quite profitable for Randazzo.“Between 2016 and 2019, FirstEnergy paid… $13,152,639.94 to Randazzo’s two shell companies,” the indictment said. “Of that total, Randazzo gave $7,756.903.84 to his IEU-Ohio Client and kept $5,395,736.10 for himself.”This is the guy the incoming DeWine-Husted administration thought would be a good candidate to regulate utilities — companies to which Ohioans have little choice in paying their billions.The state indictment describes how, on Dec. 18, 2018, FirstEnergy execs Jones and Dowling met with Gov.-elect DeWine and Lt. Gov.-elect Jon Husted at the Columbus Athletic Club and discussed whether the executives wanted Randazzo to regulate their massive electric utility.The notion that a governor would ask a huge utility who might be acceptable as a regulator might itself seem startling. But after the dinner, according to the indictment, Jones and Dowling did something even more brazen.They went to Randazzo’s German Village condo and pursuant to that, Randazzo solicited a $4.3 million payment from Jones and Dowling, the indictment said. FirstEnergy paid the money “without ever having received an invoice for the payment and without any work or consulting services being performed,” the indictment said. It added that the executives made the payment over the objections of a company lawyer.
Fresh bailout and bribery indictments raise questions about what Ohio Gov. DeWine knew and when - The announcement Monday of new felony indictments against players in Ohio’s massive bribery scandal is again raising questions about what Gov. Mike DeWine knew before and after he nominated Sam Randazzo to be the top utility regulator in the state.The indictment contained new allegations of a long, nefarious relationship between Randazzo, one of the state’s biggest utilities and a group of industrial users. On Thursday, DeWine’s spokesman reiterated that the governor believed in 2019 that Randazzo was qualified to be the top regulator because of his prior representation of utilities and large ratepayers. DeWine on Wednesday conceded that the appointment was a mistake.Randazzo was indicted along with the former top executives of Akron-based FirstEnergy for their alleged roles in a scheme to pay more than $60 million in bribes in exchange for the 2019 passage of a $1.3 billion ratepayer bailout that was mostly intended to prop up two nuclear plants. Former House Speaker Larry Householder, R-Glenford, was convicted of his role in federal court last year and is serving a 20-year prison sentence. Randazzo, DeWine’s 2019 pick to chair the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, was indicted by the feds in December. On Monday, law enforcement authorities led by Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost again indicted Randazzo, this time on state felony charges. Also indicted were former FirstEnergy CEO Chuck Jones and former Vice President Michael Dowling. They all pleaded not guilty on Tuesday.Among the new allegations was that Randazzo had a corrupt relationship with the FirstEnergy executives stretching back to 2010.As part of it, Randazzo allegedly served as general counsel to the Industrial Energy Users of Ohio while secretly being paid as a consultant for FirstEnergy. In those capacities, Randazzo settled disputes over electricity rates on terms that were acceptable to the energy companies, then channeled the settlement money through shell companies where he skimmed off a portion, the indictment said.In 2015, FirstEnergy also paid out $8.5 million in supposed “consulting fees.” The indictment said the money was really intended to be a cash payment to the industrial users so they would drop their opposition to a rate hike FirstEnergy was seeking. Through that “side deal,” a powerful utility paid off powerful industries to grease the skids for a rate hike on all FirstEnergy customers, if the allegations are true.Between 2016 and 2019, FirstEnergy paid $13 million into Randazzo’s shell companies, the indictment said. Of that, Randazzo passed $7.75 million to the industrial users and pocketed the rest, it said.On Thursday, DeWine Press Secretary Dan Tierney said that as his boss was entering the governor’s office at the start of 2019, DeWine saw Randazzo’s relationships with FirstEnergy and big electricity users as a special qualification to be the top regulator.“Governor DeWine knew of Mr. Randazzo’s relationship to FirstEnergy as a paid consultant prior to the Governor’s appointment of Mr. Randazzo,” Tierney said in an email. “As we have previously stated, Mr. Randazzo was appointed due to his expertise and having represented many sides of utility rate issues, having represented both utilities as well as large ratepayers (in) whose interest it is to pay as little as possible for utilities.”The connections between FirstEnergy and the incoming administration of Mike DeWine and Jon Husted were strong. DeWine’s chief of staff, Laurel Dawson, was married to a man who had been a paid lobbyist for FirstEnergy — and who had received a $10,000 loan from Randazzo in 2016, the indictment said. DeWine’s legislative affairs director, Dan McCarthy, had also been a FirstEnergy lobbyist. When he was, McCarthy founded Partners for Progress, a 501(c)(4) dark money group that FirstEnergy admitted was used to funnel tens of millions of the corporation’s dollars into the effort to make Householder speaker and pass and protect the bailout. Once in the administration, McCarthy acted from that perch to help pass House Bill 6, the bailout legislation. And, on Dec. 18, 2018 — just before DeWine and Husted took the oath of office — they met at the Columbus Athletic Club with Jones and Dowling, the top executives for FirstEnergy. Among the topics was whether Randazzo would be acceptable to regulate the executives’ company, the indictment said. According to the state indictment, Jones and Dowling went from that dinner to Randazzo’s German Village condo, where they seem to have negotiated a payment that FirstEnergy later characterized as a bribe. Shortly after, Randazzo sent the executives a text message requesting $4.3 million over a period of years, according to copies filed as part of Randazzo’s indictments. Jones responded by saying it would be paid in a lump sum, the messages said. In January, as Randazzo was being vetted to chair the PUCO, he told Dawson, DeWine’s chief of staff, about the $4.3 million payment, but he did not tell her about the other millions he had received from FirstEnergy, the state indictment said. Randazzo didn’t report any of the payments to the Ohio Ethics Commission, it added.A former aide gave DeWine a dossier reporting shady financial connections between Randazzo and FirstEnergy on Jan. 28, 2019. But Tierney said that Dawson never told the governor about the $4.3 million payment before DeWine nominated Randazzo to chair the PUCO on Feb. 4, 2019.According to the state indictment, Randazzo spent the rest of the year and part of the next helping to draft and openly lobby for the corrupt bailout. He also took other moves on behalf of FirstEnergy, including canceling a rate review that likely would have forced the utility to lower rates, thereby lowering stock prices and costing Jones and Dowling personally, the indictment said.Householder and four others were arrested in July 2020. But it wasn’t until the following November — when the FBI searched Randazzo’s condo — that Dawson finally told the governor about the $4.3 million payout, Tierney said.“The Governor had previously stated he had a conversation with Laurel Dawson in November 2020 about Sam Randazzo when Mr. Randazzo’s property was the subject of a federal search warrant,” he said. “The contractual termination payment was part of that discussion.” Subsequently, DeWine has staunchly defended Dawson, much as he defended McCarthy, the former aide and FirstEnergy lobbyist.July 2021 brought the lengthy, specific federal indictment of Householder, FirstEnergy, and others on the heels of Randazzo’s questionable work in support of HB 6. But DeWine apparently didn’t suspect that the company’s $4.3 million payment to Randazzo might have been a bribe — until federal agents searched his condo.“Please note that the payment was never alleged to our office to be a bribe until later in 2021, well after any such conversation or initial PUCO vetting of Mr. Randazzo,” DeWine’s press secretary said Thursday. Interestingly, the indictment unveiled on Monday contained a message from a FirstEnergy lobbyist briefing his top bosses on how to talk to DeWine.“Explain things like he doesn’t know anything about it — and be surprised when he does,” the lobbyist wrote. “Sometimes he knows what you’re talking about. Sometimes he doesn’t. Sometimes he does and pretends he doesn’t.”
Oil Find Shifts Attention in Utica - Business Journal Daily – More than 10 years into the exploration of the Utica/Point Pleasant shale region, energy companies are just now obtaining a clearer picture of what this formation holds. This is especially important for northeastern Ohio, where surprising discoveries of large volumes of oil are changing the entire nature of the play. The combination of data from legacy horizontal oil and gas wells, advanced technology, and a more in-depth understanding of the geology of the Utica have helped to narrow the search for more productive rock, industry specialists say. This information has also led to more efficient means of drawing out oil and gas molecules that have been sealed underground for millions of years. At the forefront of the rush is Encino Energy, whose Utica subsidiary, EAP Ohio, has emerged as the leading oil producer in the state. Moreover, the company has found productive oil wells in pockets that earlier were thought relegated to natural gas production. “Over the past five years, Encino has grown oil production by 250% and natural gas production by 15%, becoming the largest producer of oil in Ohio,“ says Jackie Stewart, Encino director of external affairs. Encino entered the market in 2018, acquiring most of Chesapeake Energy’s Utica assets in eastern Ohio, including Columbiana County. Through the first nine months of 2023 – the most recent production figures available from the Ohio Department of Natural Resources – the Texas-based energy company reported it’s produced more than 10.35 million barrels of oil from the Utica, more than half of the nearly 20 million barrels produced in the entire state during the period. Columbiana County Oil Boom A major addition this year to the oil assets of Encino is a handful of wells in Columbiana County that have shown promise in the northern tier of the Utica, according to ODNR production records. Drilled in Hanover and Knox townships, eight Encino wells accounted for 728,443 barrels of oil during the first nine months of 2023. Three of those wells, the Sanor 6H, 8H, and 10H in Knox Township, were ranked respectively the 6th-, 7th- and 8th-most productive oil wells in Ohio during the third quarter, ODNR records show. What is unusual is that this section of the Utica is known for its natural gas production, not oil. “There is some shifting where the money’s being invested,” observes Andrew Thomas, executive in residence at the Energy Policy Center of Cleveland State University’s Maxine Goodman Levin School of Urban Affairs. “The focus of drilling has been moving north.” Thomas observes as early as five years ago, energy companies all but ignored prospects for oil in portions of the northern and other parts of the Utica. “Five years ago, that entire oil window had been written off as uncommercial,” he says. “They’re coming back now. We’ve seen a handful of companies drilling in areas that are predominantly oil.” The Energy Policy Center at Cleveland State publishes a Utica shale investment study twice a year and is now compiling data, Thomas says, and analyzing trends for the first half of 2023. “Oil production has been on the rise – about 10% a year – over the last several years,” he observes, driven mostly by higher oil prices and a renewed push into the oil windows. This trend is likely to continue, Thomas says, along with steady volumes of natural gas production. And the Utica should continue to see drilling activity migrate northward from the southern tier, he says. “What caught my eye during the first half of 2023 was that it’s the first time we’ve seen total production from Jefferson County exceed Belmont County as the leader in state for production,” Thomas says. The potential for strong oil production across the Utica has been known for years, says Mike Chadsey, director of public relations for the Ohio Oil and Gas Association. The trick, however, was finding a way to drill for this oil that made economic sense. “There’s a saying in the industry, ‘Oil is where oil was,’ ” Chadsey says. “There’s been oil production in shale and conventional production in Columbiana County and elsewhere such as Tuscarawas and Guernsey counties for a long time now.” The precise extent of the Utica oil play has yet to be determined, Chadsey says. Between 30 and 40 wells in the Utica oil window – some of which are in Columbiana County – should be commissioned by the first quarter of this year. Production results from these wells should present a better indicator of the oil potential in the Utica, he says. “Each well is a data point,” Chadsey says. “The most telling will be the first quarter of 2024, when a lot of these wells come online and production is reported.” As of now, Chadsey says, there’s not enough information to project with certainty the course of oil production in Columbiana County. “We have an indication. We’ll know more in the first and second quarters of 2024,” he says. Nevertheless, the early results are encouraging for the industry, Chadsey says. “Everything we have heard – they’re cautiously optimistic if not downright excited about the opportunities in Columbiana County,” he says.
Gassy Northern Utica in Ohio Turns Oily Thanks to Encino Energy | Marcellus Drilling News - Encino Energy purchased Chesapeake Energy’s Ohio oil and gas assets (including Utica Shale assets) in 2018 for $2 billion (see Encino Takes Over from Chesapeake in Ohio Utica; Big Plans). A few months later, Encino CEO Hardy Murchison and COO Ray Walker (formerly of Range Resources) told attendees at a conference they would do oil drilling in the state differently and better than Chesapeake (see Encino Says They’ll Do it Better in the Utica than Chesapeake Did). They did! By June of last year, Encino had become the biggest oil producer in the state, having “cracked the code” on oil drilling in Ohio (see Oil Prod. in Northern Utica Comes Alive – Encino Cracks Oil Code). Encino is now turning parts of northern Utica, places like Columbiana County that are known for producing mostly natural gas, into oil-producing zones.
PA DEP Finally OKs Use of Big Sewickley Creek Water for Fracking - Marcellus Drilling News -- In 2021, PennEnergy Resources made a request to the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) to withdraw up to 3 million gallons of water a day from Big Sewickley Creek and one of its tributaries for shale fracking (see Dem PA Lawmaker Wants to Block Use of Creek Water for Fracking). In March 2022, PennEnergy reapplied for a permit to draw water, but this time, the request was cut in half to just 1.5 million gallons of water a day (see PennEnergy Reapplies to Use SWPA Creek Water for Fracking Ops). In July 2022, the application was finally christened as complete and ready for an official review (see PennEnergy Creek Water Request Now “Complete” – PA DEP Reviewing). And that’s where it’s been, hanging in limbo since then. Until yesterday, when the DEP notified those commenting on the application that it had been approved. Finally!
Record High NGL Exports from Marcus Hook, ET Expanding Facility - Marcellus Drilling News -- Pipeline giant Energy Transfer (ET), owner of the Mariner East Pipeline system, the Marcus Hook NGL terminal, and the Rover pipeline in the Marcellus/Utica region, issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2023 update yesterday. Net income for 4Q23 was $1.57 billion, up 9% from 4Q22’s $1.44 billion. However, net income for 2023 was $5.29 billion, down 10% from 2022’s $5.87 billion. ET is a big company with assets in many oil and gas regions of the U.S. Of interest for us were the comments about the Marcus Hook NGL terminal and its exports.
EQT Not Ready to Curb Production Further as it Jockeys for Natural Gas Rebound - Despite crashing prices, executives at EQT Corp. said the U.S. natural gas market is not as oversupplied as most think, suggesting the stage is being set for a rebound. Henry Hub has traded below $2/MMBtu for seven straight sessions. The contract hasn’t been this low since June 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. NGI’s Weekly Spot National Avg. price has also been under pressure for four weeks in a row, weighed down by near record production and mild winter weather. But CFO Jeremy Knop pointed to a “prominent data vendor” that lowered its year-to-date supply estimates this week, suggesting fundamentals aren’t as bad as they seem.
Low Gas Price May Cause EQT to Shut-in Production, Curtail Drilling - Marcellus Drilling News - - EQT Corporation, the largest natural gas producer in the U.S. (100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica) released its fourth quarter and full-year 2023 update yesterday. According to CEO Toby Rice, 2023 was a big year for the company which “set multiple drilling world records” and achieved its highest completion efficiency pace ever. Last year, EQT closed on the purchase of Tug Hill and XcL Midstream, adding major assets to the company’s portfolio. In 2023, EQT signed 2.5 million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG export agreements to export roughly 5% of EQT’s total natural gas production. The company produced 2,016 billion cubic feet equivalent (Bcfe) in 2023, which works out as 5.52 Bcfe per day. As for 2024, Rice says his company is ready and quite willing to throttle back on production and do less drilling than previously planned…if the price of natural gas stays low.
NFG Quarterly Update – Seneca M-U Production Up Big 11% | Marcellus Drilling News - National Fuel Gas Company (NFG), headquartered in Buffalo, NY, is the parent company for Marcellus/Utica driller Seneca Resources and the parent of midstream company NFG Midstream (and subsidiary Empire Pipeline). Last week, NFG issued its latest quarterly update. During the quarter (considered the company’s first quarter), Seneca produced 100.8 Bcf (billion cubic feet) of natural gas, an increase of 10.2 Bcf, or 11%, from the prior year, mainly due to production from new Marcellus and Utica wells in Seneca’s Eastern Development Area (EDA).
Webb, Lupardo lead legislative effort to ban carbon dioxide fracking - Pipe Dream - State lawmakers recently introduced a bill to ban the use of carbon dioxide (CO2) to drill and extract natural gas and oil resources. The bill, proposed by State Sen. Lea Webb and Assemblywoman Donna Lupardo in late January, would close a loophole in the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, New York state’s nation-leading climate law banning fracking operations. While the state prohibits using water to frack natural gas, companies have used CO2 as an alternative method. The bill comes alongside efforts from Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions, a Texas-based company, to convince Southern Tier landowners to lease their land to extract gas by injecting supercritical carbon dioxide into the Marcellus shale formation since fall 2023. Offers went to landowners with over 30 acres of land in Broome, Tioga and Chemung counties. The company plans to utilize CO2 to extract methane gas from the Marcellus and Utica shales, in a method more environmentally friendly than hydraulic fracking. “The technique relies heavily on the unique properties of carbon dioxide when in its supercritical phase and the affinity of shale, especially shale containing elevated levels of organic content, to absorb carbon dioxide while desorbing methane gas preferentially,” their website says. In November, Webb and Lupardo sent a letter to Basil Seggos, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation’s commissioner, to investigate Southern Tier Solutions and its proposed method to use carbon dioxide to extract fossil fuels. In the letter, Lupardo claimed that residents came to her with concerns about the impact CO2 fracking could have on the community. “This process uses directional drilling that first bores vertically deep underground to reach the Marcellus or Utica shale layer and then uses directional drilling to slowly bend the drill path sideways to drill parallel to the plane of the shale layer and try to stay roughly centered between top of the layer and bottom of the layer as they drill approximately horizontally within the shale layer for perhaps a mile or two,” Valdi Weiderpass, the Sierra Club’s Susquehanna Group chair, wrote in an email. “This process is akin high volume hydraulic fracturing, also nicknamed ‘fracking’, except this proposal would be using CO2, so environmentalists refer to it as CO2 ‘fracking.’” Environmentalist groups argue that CO2 fracking poses a great risk to the environment. According to Sandra Steingraber, a senior scientist with Science and Environmental Health Network, a nonprofit, any form of extraction requires industrializing the landscape, resulting in numerous environmental problems, including habitat destruction, soil erosion and destroyed wildlife. Steingraber also said that CO2 fracking would cause more problems because of liquified CO2’s toxicity, leaving local water supplies at risk of being contaminated and becoming harmful to humans.
Bill That Would Ban New Fracking Method Advances in Assembly - A new bill (S.8357/A.8866) that would ban the use of carbon dioxide for fracking and gas extraction has been introduced in the Legislature following reports that homeowners in New York’s Southern Tier are being asked to lease their land by a fracking company. Southern Tier CO2 to Clean Energy Solutions, or Southern Tier Solutions, a Texas-based natural gas production company, started sending letters to residents last summer according to Assemblywoman Lupardo, D–Endwell, one of the bill’s co-sponsors. After learning that more than 6,000 residents received letters from the company, Lupardo and Senator Lea Webb, D–Binghamton, the Senate bill sponsor, sent a letter to the DEC in November requesting information about the company. The DEC responded in December, writing that the company had not reached out to the agency about the projects, and that if they were to receive permit applications from Southern Tier Solutions, there would be a “thorough review” to “ensure the agency’s decision is protective of public health and the environment.” “Our community has been through a lot when it comes to promises made about drilling in the Marcellus and Utica shale,” Assemblywoman Lupardo said. “In 2021 we permanently banned fracking with water, five years after it was initially banned by Executive Order. We now need to make sure that carbon dioxide is prohibited from being used in gas or oil extraction as well, by adding three words to our existing law. “We cannot allow a company with an unproven track record to move forward with this environmentally risky process.” While hydraulic fracking has been banned in New York since 2021 — and halted since 2014 via executive order — current law makes no mention of the use of CO2 for fuel extraction, a process that has been described as “experimental, dangerous and threatening to our water, health and climate,” by Food and Water Watch, an environmental group opposed to fracking. “It’s like conducting a chemistry experiment below our feet,” said Dr. Sandra Steingraber, a biologist who has extensively researched fracking and its effects, during a press conference. Dr. Steingraber stressed there is a lack of in-depth understanding about the interactions between CO2 and the shale formations Southern Tier Solutions is looking to drill into. Other risks associated with CO2 fracking include the creation of waste, leakage, habitat destruction, soil erosion, species die-offs, and increased risk of earthquakes, according to Steingraber and others who oppose the process. “Southern Tier Solutions doesn’t have adequate answers for questions about safety and contamination risks,” said Valdi Weiderpass, a chemical engineer and chair of the the Sierra Club’s Susquehanna Group. “The process of drilling and pressurizing CO2 and extracting gas releases countless chemicals and pollutants that can harm our food, water, air and bodies.” Supporters of the bill have also expressed concern about the possibility of CO2 pipes rupturing and causing public health issues. On Feb. 22, 2020 in Satartia, Mississippi, a pipe carrying CO2 ruptured and led to a mass poisoning that hospitalized 45 people. A first responder likened the affected area to a scene from a zombie apocalypse. “Pressurized CO2 transportation and ground injection poses severe health and environmental threats,” said Assemblywoman Anna Kelles, D–Ithaca, the bill’s prime sponsor. “Pressurized CO2 is highly caustic when in the presence of the smallest amount of water. Assemblywoman Anna Kelles “To use this CO2 for oil and gas extraction it must be transported through a spiderweb of thousands of miles of pipelines across the country, risking pipe corrosion and ruptures,” she said The bill S.8357/A.8866 would amend the current law banning state fracking to include just three more words: “and carbon dioxide.” The bill’s sponsors are attempting to pass it as part of the budget to avoid the issue being pushed off. “The sooner the better,” said Lupardo. The Assembly bull has advanced to a third reading and is ready for a floor vote. The Senate bill is currently in the Environmental Conservation Committee.Antero 4Q – Production Up 6%, Profits Down 87%, 21 New Wells | Marcellus Drilling News Antero Resources, which is 100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica with over 500,000 net acres under lease (and the largest M-U driller in West Virginia), issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2023 update yesterday. The company reports net production averaged 3.4 billion cubic feet equivalent per day (Bcfe/d) during 4Q23, an increase of 6% year-over-year. Production for the full year 2023 averaged 3.4 Bcfe/d as well. Of the company’s 2023 production, liquids (NGLs) averaged 193 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/d), an increase of 14% from 2022. Natural gas production averaged 2.2 Bcf/d, up 2% from 2022. The company made $95 million in 4Q23 versus a profit of $730 million in 4Q22 — down a big 87% year over year. For 2023, Antero made $243 million versus $1.9 billion in 2022, down 87% year over year.
Desperate Antis Ask Va. Regulators to Block Work on 99% Done MVP - Marcellus Drilling News - Last Thursday, 29 far-left nutball groups wrote Mike Rolband, Director of the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), demanding that he issue a stop work order for the 99% completed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) due to “repeated and widespread violations and damage to waterbodies and private property.” This isn’t the first time these groups have demanded regulators intervene to block MVP based on flimsy grounds. The 29 radical groups include Wild Virginia, The Wilderness Society, Virginia League of Conservation Voters, West Virginia Rivers Association, Chesapeake Climate Action Network, and others (most of them obscure, one-person “groups” pretending to be bigger than they are).
Southwest Virginia landowners' Mountain Valley Pipeline lawsuit dismissed again - A three-judge panel of a federal appeals court has again dismissed a lawsuit from six Southwest Virginia landowners who say their land was improperly seized to build the Mountain Valley Pipeline. Cletus and Beverly Bohon of Montgomery County, Wendell and Mary Flora of Franklin County, and Aimee and Matt Hamm of Roanoke County argue that Congress erroneously delegated eminent domain power to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which in 2017 authorized pipeline developers to use that power to take land for the 303-mile natural gas project. The judges on Tuesday reaffirmed their June 2022 agreement with a district court’s ruling that dismissed the lawsuit against FERC and Mountain Valley, stating that under federal law the district court lacks jurisdiction to hear the landowners’ lawsuit filed in 2020 because the appeals court already took up a related case filed in 2018. “In other words, the Bohons’ suit came too late,” wrote judges Cornelia Pillard, Robert Wilkins and Justin Walker of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. Mia Yugo, an attorney with the Roanoke-based law firm Yugo Collins who represents the landowners, said they will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court a second time. The high court already sent the case back to the D.C. Circuit once, in April, after the landowners appealed the previous dismissal. Yugo said Tuesday’s ruling failed to address the challenge to FERC’s authority and said recent Supreme Court rulings in other cases confirm the landowners’ position that such a challenge must be decided by trial in district court. “Private property is the bedrock of liberty,” Yugo said in a statement. “This case presents a critical issue for the country. The Landowners are entitled to their day in court and that should have already happened.” A FERC spokesperson declined to comment Wednesday, saying the agency doesn’t comment on matters before the courts. Mountain Valley Pipeline spokesperson Natalie Cox said in an email that Mountain Valley is pleased with the outcome of the court decision. The pipeline is planned to run from West Virginia through six Virginia counties, ending at a compressor station in Pittsylvania County. Equitrans Midstream, the company that owns a majority stake in the joint venture, says the pipeline is scheduled to be operational this quarter. The project was first announced in 2014 and initially was scheduled to be complete in 2018 with a price tag of $3.5 billion. It has been delayed by years of legal and permitting challenges as its cost estimate has more than doubled to $7.2 billion. Supporters say the pipeline will help transport natural gas from Appalachian shale deposits to mid- and south Atlantic U.S. markets, meeting a need for domestic energy. Opponents have said the project is unnecessary, unsafe and harmful to the environment. Lawsuits focusing on the pipeline’s impact on federally protected endangered species and national forests were dismissed in August. Judges cited legislation from this past summer that kept the U.S. from hitting its debt ceiling and also included a provision approving the pipeline’s remaining outstanding permits and shielding those permits from further legal challenges. In October, the landowners filed an emergency injunction to have construction work on their land stopped while their case was pending. The same three-judge panel denied that request. The Richmond-based 4th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals is scheduled to hear oral arguments later this year in a related case regarding compensating the Bohons for the land seized by eminent domain.
MVP Gauges Support for Southgate Natural Gas Extension as Mainline Shows Heartbeat - Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC (MVP) is conducting an open season for natural gas deliveries along its revamped Southgate extension planned for 550,000 Dth/d capacity. The non-binding open season runs through Friday (Feb. 16) and is for firm transportation service in Rockingham County, NC. MVP said it is targeting an in-service date of mid-2028. After years of regulatory setbacks, MVP in December scaled back the Southgate project to run 31 miles from its mainline terminus in Virginia into North Carolina, from an original 75 miles. The redesign upped the planned firm capacity to 550,000 Dth/d from a previous 375,000 Dth/d.
U.S. NatGas Production Nears All-Time High Again – No Slowdown - Marcellus Drilling News - - U.S. natural gas production in the Lower 48 states is once again very close to all-time high levels, contrary to the blatherings of groups like the International Energy Association (IEA), which continues its meme that both oil and natgas either already have or will soon peak in demand. That’s just not happening here at home. Natural gas production is up to nearly 104.5 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) over the last week, not far off from the all-time highs of nearly 105.7 Bcf/d recorded in December, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Certified natural gas is ‘dangerous greenwashing scheme’, US senators say -- Certified natural gas – or methane gas that is purportedly produced in a low-emissions manner – is a “dangerous greenwashing scheme”, a group of progressive senators wrote in a letter to federal regulators on Monday. The letter, addressed to Federal Trade Commission chair, Lina Khan, comes as the agency prepares to release its updated Green Guides, which clarify when companies’ marketing claims around sustainability violate federal laws barring consumer deception, giving regulators stronger legal cases against polluters. Those guidelines should “crack down” on claims made by gas certification programs, the lawmakers, led by Massachusetts’s Ed Markey, wrote. “The reality is that gas certification schemes allow the oil and gas industry to justify the continued expansion of methane gas use and undermine efforts towards a just transition to renewables,” says the letter, which was also signed by the senators Jeff Merkley, Sheldon Whitehouse, Elizabeth Warren, Richard Blumenthal, Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker. The gas sector has long branded itself as climate-friendly, noting that when burned, the fuel generates less planet-heating carbon dioxide than other fossil fuels. But gas – called “natural gas” by fossil fuel interests – is made of methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more planet-heating than carbon dioxide in the short term. Some research even indicates the fuel is worse for the climate than coal.Amid increasing public concern about gas usage and the climate crisis, a new industry of third-party gas “certifiers” has cropped up. These companies develop standards that they use to proclaim that certain producers are reducing emissions from their fracking wells, pipelines and storage facilities, and therefore generating gas sustainably.The companies can then deem certain gas “certified”, “responsibly produced” or “differentiated”, allowing producers to sell it at a premium. Utilities in New York, Vermont, New Jersey, Michigan and Virginia have purchased certified natural gas and plan to pass on the additional costs to customers, the non-profit watchdog organization Revolving Door Project found last year.“Those same consumers are still exposed to hazardous air pollution from burning gas in their homes, and combusting that gas is still contributing to the climate crisis,” said Hannah Story Brown, senior researcher at Revolving Door Project.Gas certifiers’ standards have not appeared to stand up to closer scrutiny. In 2022, for instance, the environmental non-profits Earthworks and Oil Change International spent seven months auditing sensor technologies used by Project Canary, an industry leader among gas certifiers. The groups concluded in a report released last year that the company was consistently failing to detect methane leaks during drilling, fracking, flaring and venting. (Project Canary has said in response that the report contains “inaccurate and misleading claims”.)This lack of robustness, the lawmakers write, comes as no surprise. “The gas companies’ profits depend on the monitoring companies certifying their gas, and the monitoring companies’ profits depend on willing industry customers,” they said. “Thus, there is no incentive to ensure the accuracy of emissions measurements.”
D.C. Circuit grills FERC in LNG export fight - A pair of Biden-appointed judges signaled Monday that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission may need to take a closer look at climate and air quality impacts of the liquefied natural gas export terminals the agency approves. The remarks from judges of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit came during oral arguments over FERC’s certification of a Louisiana LNG project. The hearing occurred just two weeks after the Biden administration announced that a separate agency — the Department of Energy — would pause new LNG export approvals to better account for climate impacts when deciding whether the projects are in the public interest. Two D.C. Circuit judges questioned how that analysis was playing out at FERC, which approves siting and construction of new LNG facilities. The court has previously required FERC to beef up its consideration of greenhouse gas emissions from the energy projects it oversees. Advertisement “I don’t know why [FERC] would be so reluctant to find significance. It seems easier than litigation like this,” said Judge Florence Pan. Pan, a Biden appointee, pressed FERC attorney Susanna Chu to explain how high a project’s emissions had to be to prompt the agency to explore other alternatives. “I think the bottom line is there is no line that you would think greenhouse gas emissions are significant,” said Pan, after some back and forth. The arguments Monday centered on environmental groups’ challenge against FERC’s approval of Commonwealth LNG. The project is slated to be one of about a half-dozen proposed and existing LNG export facilities in southwest Louisiana, including the massive planned CP2 LNG terminal. Pan said that Commonwealth LNG’s emissions are 36 times higher than FERC’s proposed threshold for considering a project’s emissions “significant.” Chu said that FERC has withdrawn that policy. “Why isn’t this project significant under any proposal that you might adopt?” Pan said. Judge Brad Garcia also drilled down on how FERC accounts for cumulative air quality effects of building a project in an area that is expected to host several other LNG terminals. FERC had found that the levels of air pollution from nitrogen dioxide would not be significant, said Chu Even if the emissions from one facility are incremental, said Garcia, a Biden appointee, “why is that relevant to the total level [of emissions], which is what cumulative impacts analysis is asking [FERC] to talk about?” Later in the hearing, he asked John Longstreth, a partner at the firm K&L Gates representing Commonwealth LNG, why FERC would not consider emissions significant if they were counted alongside pollution from other facilities. “It literally does not compute in my head,” Garcia said. The judge also asked Chu to explain why FERC’s determination that Commonwealth LNG was in the public interest was not a basis for sending the analysis back to the agency to offer a better explanation. Chu responded that the Natural Gas Act presumes that LNG exports to free-trade-agreement nations are in the public interest, and DOE has already authorized the shipments. FERC “felt it was on firm ground on approving [the project], because it was required to do so,” she said.
Coalition of states criticize Biden's natural gas export freeze – A coalition of about two dozen state attorneys general sent a letter to President Joe Biden Tuesday blasting the president's recent decision to freeze the approval of new export sites for liquefied natural gas. Biden announced the freeze last month, citing climate change concerns. The attorneys general called on Biden to end the pause, saying it will hurt the economy, national security, and violated federal law. "Your administration's planned 'pause' – which we might more accurately call a series of constructive denials – of most American LNG exports is unlawful for several reasons," the letter said. The attorneys general goes on to lay out those reasons, saying the Department of Energy does not have legal authority to writ large deny the export permits. The letter also points out the agency did not go through the standard rulemaking procedure, a lengthy process that allows input from stakeholders. "Generally, agency legislative rules must go through the APA's notice-and-comments procedures," the letter said. "And the pause here is a substantive rule required to go through that process. The pause effectively commands the Department to stop performing its obligations under the NGA to approve export applications and does not leave the agency free to exercise discretion unless it chooses to disobey the policy. "That's the exact type of substantive rule that needs to go through notice and comment because it modifies substantial rights," the letter adds. The letter comes the same day that House Energy and Commerce Chair Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers, R-Wash., held a hearing Tuesday on the export pause. "The administration has made its intentions clear," she said at the hearing. "This is not a 'pause,' as they've claimed. This is a ban. The administration is ignoring the fact that natural gas continues to create millions of new jobs, bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and revitalize communities across the country. The natural gas industry supports millions of jobs and brings tens of billions of dollars to the U.S. economy. "In 2022, in Pennsylvania alone, the natural gas industry supported $41.4 billion in economic activity, and shale gas development supported over 120,000 jobs," Rodgers added. Over the weekend, about 150 House Republicans sent a letter to Biden criticizing the gas freeze. The letter argues that administrations from the left and right have supported gas exports. Energy exports have become increasingly important given the global conflicts with Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East, two of the world's most important energy export areas. Some House Democrats have also attacked Biden's decision, but the White House has stood by it, pointing out that the U.S. is already the world leader in these exports and that those exports are expected to significantly grow in the coming years. "We also must adequately guard against risks to the health of our communities, especially frontline communities in the United States who disproportionately shoulder the burden of pollution from new export facilities," the White House said in a statement. "The pause, which is subject to exception for unanticipated and immediate national security emergencies, will provide the time to integrate these critical considerations."
Future of US LNG hangs in balance as White House weighs geopolitical, environmental interests— The first shipment of U.S. liquefied natural gas left Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass export terminal in Louisiana almost eight years ago, ushering in a new age of American energy exportsto allies around the globe and generating tens of billions of dollars a year for the U.S. economy.But with climate change now gaining bandwidth in global leaders’ minds, the greenhouse gas emissions produced by LNG, while in some respects markedly less than coal, are driving a tense assessment within the Biden administration about whether building more LNG terminals is in the world’s best interests, while they put a pause on permitting.At the center of that debate is the network of American allies now dependent on U.S. LNG, for whom a reduction in American supply could have far-reaching implications beyond climate change, affecting the economic relationships around which so much diplomacy is built.“The climate concerns are real, and they deserve a serious, hard look, but there’s other geopolitical and market considerations we need to take into account,” said Ben Cahill, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. “The fact is, gas demand is going to be with us for a long time and there will be multiple suppliers vying to meet that market demand.”The United States exported more than 88 million tons of LNG last year, surpassing Qatar and Australia to become the world’s largest supplier. And with multiple terminals under construction along the Gulf Coast, the sector is expected to grow exponentially in the decades ahead, with research company Wood Mackenzie projecting LNG exports from the U.S. and Mexico to reach a capacity of 238 million metric tons per year by 2050, accounting for 30% of global supply.But in a note to clients last week, the company warned that while a short-term pause on U.S. LNG permitting was unlikely to have much impact on global energy markets a sustained interruption could “have lasting implications on the global LNG market and could affect how buyers perceive US LNG."“While we expect existing LNG buyers to wait in the short term, these and other potential new buyers could start to look at competing projects outside of the U.S., such as those in Canada, Australia and particularly Qatar, as alternative supply sources,” wrote Giles Farrer, head of gas research at Wood Mackenzie.
Rockefellers, Bloomberg Behind Campaign to Block LNG Exports - Marcellus Drilling News -- So-called “charities” (really nothing of the sort) controlled by Rockefeller family billionaires and charities controlled by billionaire Mike Bloomberg provided millions of dollars in recent years to environmental groups that are campaigning against fossil-fuel projects, including LNG terminals that have been proposed on the Gulf Coast, according to insiders. So says an article recently published in the Wall Street Journal. Frankly, we’re not surprised. Nobody should be surprised that billionaire Democrats are funding these anti-fossil fuel crusades. What everyone SHOULD be surprised by is that the billionaires’ charities are tax-exempt and that they are funding tax-exempt nonprofits to engage in overtly political activities — activities that violate the IRS tax code for nonprofits. Why are ANY of the participants in this scheme tax-exempt?
The unlikely coalition behind Biden’s liquefied natural gas pivot - Environmental activists and community organizers on the Gulf Coast have spent years pressuring the Biden administration to halt the construction of terminals that export liquefied natural gas, or LNG. As U.S. production of natural gas skyrocketed over the past few decades, energy companies began building massive coastal facilities to liquefy the fossil fuel and transport it by ship to Europe, Asia and elsewhere. In response, activists staged protests, organized sit-ins, wrote to members of Congress and broadly made the issue Biden’s “next big climate test.”When the administration announced that it would pause its approval of new LNG terminals late last month, the climate movement and its allies were largely credited with the victory. Bill McKibben, the renowned founder of 350.org (and a former Grist board member), began his blog post about the news by saying, “Um, I think we all just won.” The decision reportedly came about after senior administration officials, including White House climate advisor Ali Zaidi, learned that young activists on TikTok were drawing millions of views elevating LNG as a major climate issue. As if to prove the president was listening, the White House has collected dozens of quotes from climate advocates praising the decision. (In some ways, the activists’ celebration belies the reality that the climate impact of constricting LNG exports is far from certain, and the devil is in the details: While a broader buildout certainly has the potential to promote unnecessary fossil fuel use, it may also speed other countries’ transition away from other, more harmful fossil fuels like coal.) But a broader, less-climate-concerned coalition, representing thousands of manufacturers, chemical companies and consumer advocates, has also been quietly pushing for the pause — and stands to benefit if Biden curbs LNG exports. The more American natural gas that’s available to be shipped overseas, they argue, the more unpredictable the price of the fuel will be stateside. If, for example, an unexpected gas shortage in another country means U.S. gas companies can make more money selling their product overseas than they can at home, prices will rise as the supply is stretched thin. This volatility would hurt not only households that heat and power their homes with natural gas but also the profit margins of big companies that rely on the fuel.“LNG exports put pressure on domestic markets, which…results in higher energy costs,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association, an organization representing state officials who administer federal energy assistance programs that help low-income households pay energy bills. “There’s an impact on families that are benefiting from these lower prices. That needs to be taken into account.”Wolfe said that average home heating prices have risen more than 16 percent since March2020, driven in large part by higher natural-gas prices. (Hotter summers also mean utilities need more fuel to power a grid stretched thin by air conditioning in the summer and therefore have less natural gas for heating in the winter.) The result is that 1 out of 6 households nationwide are behind on their energy bills. “If the administration wants to approve these facilities, they should do it in the context of saying, ‘How do we help families pay their bills?’” Wolfe added. It’s not just cash-strapped families that might benefit if LNG exports are limited: The Industrial Energy Consumers of America, or IECA, a trade group representing more than 11,000manufacturing facilities nationwide, has also been arguing against LNG exports. IECA’s members include fertilizer companies, aluminum smelters and glass manufacturers, among others. These industries are heavily dependent on natural gas either as feedstock for production or to fuel their operations. As natural-gas prices rose in 2022, heavy industries that require large amounts of natural gas or electricity — such as fertilizer production and aluminum smelting — saw their costs skyrocket. That year, multiple steel mills, as well as the country’s second-largest aluminum smelter,paused operations in the face of unsustainable costs.Paul Cicio, IECA’s president, has been imploring the federal government to curb natural-gas exports since the Obama administration. The last three presidential administrations “have just ignored consumers’ interests,”
House Votes to Reverse Biden’s Pause on New LNG Exports – The U.S. House of Representatives passed a Republican-sponsored bill on Thursday to reverse the Biden administration’s pause on authorizing new LNG exports. The bill would strip the Department of Energy’s role for determining whether LNG projects are in the public interest and give the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission exclusive authority to approve projects and export licenses. The Biden administration temporarily suspended new project authorizations last month while DOE reviews policies for approving more exports. The legislation faces an uphill battle in the Senate, where lawmakers passed a Ukraine aid bill on Tuesday without any amendments, despite calls from Republicans to tack on measures that would have reversed...
New Study Questions LNG as a “Bridge Fuel” in Decarbonization - For years, the petroleum industry has been trying to push liquefied natural gas as a clean energy source, or at least a cleaner energy source than other fossil fuels, touting its role as a stepping stone or ‘bridge fuel’ between higher-emissions fuels and clean energy in the decarbonization transition. But recent research shows that LNG may not always be cleaner than coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel.The debate over whether LNG is in reality a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels has been reengaged in recent months as the Biden administration has announced that it will pause approvals of new licenses to export liquefied natural gas. Last Friday, President Joe Biden announced that during this freeze the United States Department of Energy will review and assess whether the nation’s considerable LNG exports are “undermining domestic energy security, raising consumer costs and damaging the environment.”This pause will have widespread implications for global energy markets, as the United States was the single biggest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world in 2023. According to LSEG data, full year exports from the U.S. rose 14.7% to 88.9 million metric tons (MT), but from 77.5 million metric tons in 2022.As the Biden administration’s decision to pause new approvals makes waves around global energy markets, it’s also caused a major resurgence of the natural gas debate in scientific circles. We now know that natural gas is much more harmful for the environment than initially thought, but there is widespread disagreement about to what extent, and whether pausing exports is actually the right move for the environment.In December 2023, 170 climate scientists signed onto a letter petitioning President Joe Biden to reject all plans to build more LNG export terminals going forward, and especially along the Gulf of Mexico. Their argument was based on the finding that, in stark contrast to the dominant energy transition narrative, liquefied gas is actually “at least 24 percent worse for the climate than coal.” This figure comes from a forthcoming Cornell University study (which has not yet been peer reviewed).The issue is not really the consumption of the natural gas itself, but emissions associated with the life cycle of liquefied natural gas production. The Cornell University figure comes from figuring in the carbon dioxide emissions that result from the liquefying process, which requires chilling natural gas to extremely cold temperatures, an energy-intensive ordeal.Another major issue is the methane that is released during the extraction of natural gas. Methane is an extremely potent greenhouse gas. While it breaks up much more quickly in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, it is 80 times more potent at warming than CO2 over a 20-year period. And peer–reviewed studies (like this one, this one, and this one) are increasingly indicating that natural gas produces much, much more methane over its life cycle than previously thought.But other experts contend that these figures, while peer-reviewed, are politically motivated and the figures are inflated or skewed to tell a certain narrative that’s not necessarily consistent with reality. “It’s just extremely frustrating to even deal with claims like this, because we talk about settled science,” says Dan Byers, vice president of policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, where he works on environmental issues in a recent Scientific American report. “The notion that, you know, LNG and natural gas reduce emissions by displacing coal is completely well established. So it feels like we’ve got like a flat earth situation going on with these claims.”A recent op-ed in the Wall Street Journal goes as far as to contend that the Biden administration’s new LNG export pause will actually harm the environment more than it helps. In the op-ed Chris Barnard, president of the American Conservation Coalition, argues that if the United States takes a step back from meeting global energy demands, other energy powers including Russia and China will only be too happy to fill those shoes. He argues that the result will be a more volatile geopolitical landscape as well as an increase of more carbon-intensive energy sources on the market.As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. But the one thing that’s certain is that regardless of whether coal or LNG is cleaner, clean energy buildout will always be the cleanest. Of course, LNG will continue to have a role in stabilizing, and yes, bridging a smooth energy transition. But the quicker we can move away from it, the better.
Chesapeake seals LNG deal with Delfin and Gunvor - US shale gas producer Chesapeake Energy has entered into an offtake deal with Delfin Midstream, the US developer of a floating LNG export project in the Gulf of Mexico, to supply LNG to Geneva-based trader Gunvor. Chesapeake said in a statement on Tuesday that the LNG export deal includes executed sales and purchase agreements for long-term liquefaction offtake. Under the SPA, Chesapeake will buy about 0.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG from Delfin at a Henry Hub price with a targeted start date in 2028. The firm will then deliver LNG to Gunvor on an free on board (FOB) basis with the sales price linked to the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) for a period of 20 years, it said. These volumes will represent 0.5 mtpa of the previously announced up to 2 mtpa heads of agreement with Gunvor, Delfin said. Also, these volumes will add to the SPA Gunvor signed with Delfin in November last year for up to 1 mtpa. Delfin plans to install up to four self-propelled FLNG vessels that could produce up to 13.3 mtpa of LNG or 1.7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas as part of its Delfin LNG project. The firm also aims to install two FLNG units under the Avocet LNG project. Delfin said in November it had secured commercial agreements for LNG sales and liquefaction services and the firm was “in the final phase towards FID on its first three FLNG vessels”. Kalpesh Patel, co-head of LNG trading and a member of Gunvor’s executive committee, said the new deal “represents an important step in finalizing the 0.5 mtpa out of our total of 2 mtpa arrangement with Chesapeake, while expanding our existing cooperation with Delfin.” “We continue to provide reliable and competitive logistics services to our partners by utilizing our fleet consisting of vessels procured via term charters and equity ownership,” he said.
US weekly LNG exports reach 24 shipments - US liquefaction plants shipped 24 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the week ending February 7, while natural gas deliveries to these terminals decreased by 4.9 percent compared to the week before. The EIA said in its weekly report, citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, that the total capacity of these 24 LNG vessels is 89 Bcf. The agency did not release its weekly report in the prior week. During the week of January 18-24, 2024, US terminals shipped 20 LNG cargoes. Natural gas deliveries to US terminals down Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals decreased by 0.7 Bcf/d week over week, averaging 13.3 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1.4 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 9.2 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased by 15.1 percent (0.5 Bcf/d) to 2.9 Bcf/d. The agency said that nearly all the declines in South Texas occurred at Cheniere’s Corpus Christi LNG terminal, where natural gas receipts fell by, on average, 0.5 Bcf/d, or close to 25 percent week over week. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped nine cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent three shipments during February 1 and February 7.Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal sent four cargoes and the Freeport LNG terminal and Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal each shipped three cargoes during the week under review. Also, the Cove Point LNG terminal shipped two cargoes, while the Elba terminal did not ship cargoes during the period.This report week, the Henry Hub spot price fell 26 cents from $2.23 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.97/MMBtu this Wednesday, the lowest price since June 12, 2023, the agency said. The price of the March 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 13.3 cents, from $2.100/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.967/MMBtu this Wednesday. According to the agency, this is the lowest settlement price for the March 2024 contract since trading of this contract began 12 years ago. The price of the 12-month strip, averaging March 2024 through February 2025 futures contracts, declined 12.5 cents to $2.641/MMBtu, the agency said. The agency said that international natural gas futures were mixed this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia rose 4 cents to a weekly average of $9.46/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF fell 6 cents to a weekly average of $9.07/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending February 8, 2023), the prices were $18.30/MMBtu in East Asia and $17.83/MMBtu at TTF. The last time early-February prices at TTF averaged below $10/MMBtu was in 2021, the agency said.
Venture Global Asks FERC for 1-Year Extension of Calcasieu Pass LNG Commissioning - Work at Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass export facility could stretch on until the end of the year, requiring the firm to seek an authorization extension from FERC, the company disclosed in a recent filing. The Virginia-based company has asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to grant it an extra year to complete the commissioning of its first Louisiana export facility as it nears the Feb. 21 in-service deadline. Venture Global told FERC that it believed it qualified for an extension because it has made “good faith efforts” to advance the project, but issues with its electrical systems have prevented it from completing the commissioning process.
Energy Transfer Pushing Ahead with Warrior Natural Gas Pipeline to Expand Gulf Coast Transport - Energy Transfer LP has sold about 25% of capacity for its proposed 1.5-2.0 Bcf/d Warrior Pipeline, which it expects the market will need to meet natural gas transportation needs along the Gulf Coast within the next few years, executives said. During a fourth quarter earnings call, Co-CEO Marshall McCrea said the Dallas-based midstream giant had sold about one-quarter of the goal to reach a final investment decision (FID) for Warrior. He noted that negotiations continue for another 1.6-1.7 Bcf/d of commitments. The tentatively designed 42-inch diameter Warrior Pipeline would run 325 miles from the Permian Basin to interconnect south of Dallas, giving access to major Gulf Coast hubs including Katy, Beaumont, the Houston Ship Channel, and the Gillis and Henry hubs.
US natgas prices fall 5% to 3-1/2-year low on mild winter weather (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Tuesday to a fresh 3-1/2-year low on near-record output, ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for warmer weather and less heating demand next week than previously expected. Traders also noted that gas flows to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants should remain reduced so long as a liquefaction unit at Freeport LNG's facility in Texas stays shut. The combination of near-record production and mostly warmer-than-usual weather and low heating demand so far this winter, other than an Arctic freeze in mid-January, has allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage. Analysts forecast inventories were currently about 15% above normal levels for this time of year. Energy traders said low prices usually encourage power generators to burn more gas instead of coal and prompts producers to cut back on gas drilling. But even if energy firms reduce gas drilling, gas output will likely still rise because oil prices CLc1 are high enough to encourage producers to seek more oil in shale basins like the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and Bakken in North Dakota. A lot of associated gas also comes out of the ground with oil in those shale basins. "Many gas producers are well-hedged and expecting an LNG demand boom beginning next year - and are loathe to cut flowing supplies ahead of the long-awaited opportunity," But EBW noted that "extreme price weakness may force producers' hands, weakening supply in low-demand shoulder seasons ... simply slowing new completions could balance the natural gas market." That may already be happening. U.S. producers drilled just 850 oil and gas wells in January, the least since February 2022, and completed just 863, which was also the least since February 2022, according to federal energy data. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 7.9 cents, or 4.5%, to settle at $1.689 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since July 2020 for a second day in a row. That put the contract down about 19% over the past six days of price declines. Financial company LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to an average of 105.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.1 bcfd in January, but still short of the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in December. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states would turn from warmer than normal now to colder than normal on Saturday and Sunday, Feb. 17-18, before returning to mostly warmer-than-normal from Feb. 19-28. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast U.S. gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 124.0 bcfd this week to 129.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants slid to an average of 13.6 bcfd so far in February, down from 13.9 bcfd in January and a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. Analysts do not expect U.S. LNG feedgas to return to record levels until Freeport LNG is back at full power, which could occur in mid- to late February.
US natgas prices slide 2% to fresh 3-1/2-year low on small storage withdrawal (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a fresh 3-1/2-year low on Thursday on rising, near-record output and a smaller-than-expected storage withdrawal last week when warm weather kept heating demand low. That price decline occurred despite forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and as some producers said they would reduce drilling in 2024 due to the recent price plunge. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled a smaller-than-expected 49 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Feb. 9. That was lowerthan the 68-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with a decrease of 117 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average decline of 149 bcf for this time of year. The combination of near-record production, mostly warmer-than-usual weather and low heating demand so far this winter, other than the Arctic freeze in mid-January, has allowed utilities to leave more gas in storage than usual. Stockpiles were about 16% above normal levels for this time of year. U.S. energy firm Antero Resources AR.N, a big gas producer, said it expects gas production to decline by about 3% in 2024 versus 2023. Antero also said it expects to cut its drilling and completion capital budget by 26% after reducing the number of rigs in operation to two from three, and cutting one of two completion crews. Comstock Resources, another big U.S. gas producer, made a similar announcement about reducing gas rigs earlier this week. But even if some energy firms reduce gas drilling, gas output could still increase because oil prices CLc1 are high enough to encourage producers to seek more oil in shale basins like the Permian in Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken in North Dakota. A lot of associated gas also comes out of the ground with oil in those shale basins. After falling about 24% over the last eightdays, front-month gas futures NGc1 for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.8 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $1.581 per million British thermal units, theirlowest close since June 2020 during theheight of COVID-19 demand destruction. That kept thecontract in technically oversold territory for an eighth day in a row for the first time since February 2018.
How Long Could U.S. Natural Gas Stay Below $2? Forecasts Say Not Long If E&Ps Turn Off ‘Spigot’ - U.S. natural gas markets are looking dire for sellers, with futures diving near depths last seen during the Covid-19 pandemic. Several catalysts lie ahead, though, that could create a floor and set the stage for a rebound, according to analysts. The March New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) contract fell below the $2.000/MMBtu level on Feb. 7 and hasn’t looked back, dropping in seven straight sessions, the latest on Wednesday, down 8.0 cents to $1.609. The contract traded as low as $1.590, within 11 cents of the lowest prompt-month close in the post-shale era of $1.482 in June 2020. Meanwhile, NGI’s Henry Hub spot prices fell 15.5 cents day/day to average $1.510 on Wednesday. The benchmark cash price last touched this level in July 2020.
Oil firms and green groups challenge Biden plan for offshore drilling leases - Oil and gas companies and environmental groups on Monday filed dueling legal challenges to the Biden administration’s five-year plan to offer drilling leases in the Gulf of Mexico. The petitions to a US appeals court come four months after the interior department unveiled a congressionally-mandated plan for offshore leasing that included just three sales, the lowest since the government began publishing the schedules in 1980. The American Petroleum Institute (API), an oil and gas trade group, said it was challenging the policy because it would leave Americans at risk of relying on foreign energy sources. “Demand for affordable, reliable energy is only growing, yet this administration has used every tool at its disposal to restrict access to vast energy resources in federal waters,” Ryan Meyers, the API general counsel, said in a statement. The petitions were filed in the US court of appeals for the district of Columbia. An interior department spokesperson declined to comment. Environmental group Earthjustice filed a separate petition challenging interior department’s plan on behalf of eight other environmental organizations. They allege the federal agency failed to adequately consider the health impacts the offshore drilling plan would have on local communities.
API Files Petition Challenging Biden Admin's Oil and Gas Leasing Program - The American Petroleum Institute (API) revealed in a statement posted on its site this week that it has filed a petition challenging the Biden administration’s 2024-2029 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program. The API highlighted in the statement that the Department of the Interior’s (DOI) final five-year program outlined a maximum of three potential oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico Program Area in 2025, 2027 and 2029, which the API pointed out is the fewest oil and gas lease sales in a five-year program in history. The organization added in the statement that 2024 will be the first year since 1966 without an offshore lease sale. In its statement, the API noted that, for 45 years, the DOI has been required to prepare and maintain a five-year program that will best meet America’s energy needs for the ensuing five-year period, “detailing a schedule for regular oil and natural gas lease sales, including in the Gulf of Mexico”. For the first time, the DOI released the final five-year program for federal offshore leasing nearly 500 days late, the API said in the statement. “Demand for affordable, reliable energy is only growing, yet this administration has used every tool at its disposal to restrict access to vast energy resources in federal waters,” API Senior Vice President and General Counsel Ryan Meyers said in the statement. “In issuing a five-year program with the fewest lease sales in history, the administration is limiting access in a region responsible for generating among the lowest carbon-intensive barrels in the world, putting American consumers at greater risk of relying on foreign sources for our future energy needs,” he added. “Today, we are taking action to challenge this shortsighted program so that future generations of Americans will continue to benefit from our energy advantage for decades to come,” Meyers continued. Rigzone asked the DOI, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and the White House for comment on the API statement and the filed petition. While the DOI declined to comment, the DOE and White House have not yet responded to Rigzone at the time of writing. The DOI published the Final 2024–2029 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program on December 15, 2023, noting in a statement posted on its website at the time that the plan phases down oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and includes zero oil and gas lease sales in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Alaskan waters. “Consistent with the requirements of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) concerning offshore conventional and renewable energy leasing, the Department of the Interior today published the final 2024–2029 National Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas Leasing Program with the fewest oil and gas lease sales in history,” the DOI said in the statement on its site. “The IRA prohibits the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management from issuing a lease for offshore wind development unless the agency has offered at least 60 million acres for oil and gas leasing on the OCS in the previous year. The program schedules three oil and gas lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico Program Area in 2025, 2027, and 2029,” it added. “These three lease sales are the minimum number that will enable the Interior Department’s offshore wind energy program to continue issuing leases in a way that will ensure continued progress towards the administration’s goal of 30 gigawatts of offshore wind by 2030,” the DOI continued. “The reduction of the next National OCS Program to three lease sales meets the IRA’s requirements for future offshore renewable energy leasing. The areas considered for leasing and number of lease sales in the 2024-2029 Final Program have been significantly narrowed from the previous administration’s original proposal of 47 lease sales off all coastal areas in the United States,” it went on to state. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest short term energy outlook, which was released earlier this month, the U.S. produced 12.93 million barrels per day of crude oil last year, comprising 1.87 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, 0.43 million barrels per day from Alaska, and 10.64 million barrels per day from the Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico. Dry natural gas production in the U.S. totaled 36.35 trillion cubic feet in 2022, according to EIA figures available on the organization’s website, which were last updated on January 31, 2024. The Federal offshore Gulf of Mexico made up 696.77 billion cubic feet of that total and the Alaska state offshore made up 41.19 billion cubic feet, the figures showed.
Tellurian’s Driftwood LNG Granted Three-Year Extension as FERC Rejects Critics’ Arguments - Federal regulators have approved a three-year extension for Tellurian Inc.’s Driftwood LNG export facility to begin operations, determining the Houston-based firm has demonstrated due diligence to complete the project, in light of the Covid-19 pandemic. During the recent open meeting, FERC authorized an extension through April 18, 2029 for the proposed liquefied natural gas export facility and associated pipeline project to reach completion (No. CP17-117-001, CP 17-118-001). Driftwood LNG has not yet been sanctioned. The estimated $1.28 billion project, which includes an LNG facility in Calcasieu Parish, LA, and a 37-mile bidirectional pipeline connecting Driftwood to the Haynesville Shale, could produce 27 million metric tons/year (mmty) at full scale.
U.S. Regulators Approve Saguaro Connector Linked to Mexico Pacific LNG Project - The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) on Thursday approved Oneok Inc.’s proposed 2.8 Bcf/d Saguaro Connector natural gas pipeline, which would transport Permian Basin supply to the U.S.-Mexico border. The pipeline would transport gas to Mexico Pacific Ltd.’s Saguaro EnergÃa LNG export plant envisioned for Puerto Libertad, Sonora, located on the country’s west coast. The re-export route would allow marketers of U.S. gas to bypass the Panama Canal, meaning that liquefied natural gas cargoes could reach the Asia Pacific market more quickly and cheaply.
FERC greenlights projects that could unleash gas exports - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved two natural gas projects Thursday that seek to boost gas exports as a rift widens between the fossil fuel industry and environmental critics. FERC approved the Saguaro Connector pipeline — proposed by Oneok — that would run about 500 miles and transport 2.8 billion cubic feet of gas per day from Texas to the coast of Mexico. Commissioner Allison Clements, a Democrat, issued a partial dissent that urged FERC to evaluate the greenhouse gas emissions of such projects. But she said the Saguaro project’s potential greenhouse gas emissions appeared to be insignificant and concurred with the overall decision. The commission also approved a three-year extension to complete the Driftwood pipeline and liquefied natural gas terminal proposed by Tellurian in Louisiana. The project now needs to be completed by 2029. Ninety-six miles of pipeline would deliver gas to an LNG facility being built on a 1,200-acre site south of Lake Charles, Louisiana, that aims to ship more than 27 million metric tons of LNG each year to customers. FERC’s decisions coincided with a vote Thursday by the Republican-led House to give FERC the “exclusive authority” to approve LNG projects. The developments follow the Department of Energy’s LNG export approval freeze late last month, which pauses decisions on new export permits for gas headed to countries that lack a comprehensive free trade agreement with the United States. FERC Chair Willie Phillips, also a Democrat, said in a press briefing after Thursday’s meeting that the commission has been working on LNG independently from DOE. He said “FERC is responsible for the actual siting of LNG infrastructure” and “the Department of Energy is responsible for the actual export and import of LNG.” “We do not coordinate with the Department of Energy on those two determinations,” Phillips said. Environmental groups lauded the Biden administration’s decision at DOE and said it will help limit potent climate-warming emissions that can come from natural gas. But it sparked deep concerns from LNG exporters, Republicans, and some congressional Democrats over fears of impacting international allies and raising the price of natural gas at home. Tellurian spokesperson Joi Lecznar said in an email that the company is “grateful for FERC’s diligence” and thankful to commissioners for the extension of Driftwood’s construction timeline. Oneok spokesperson Annell Morrow said in an email that the company looks “forward to the opportunity to potentially move ahead” with the Saguaro project. Driftwood has an existing DOE permit to export LNG to countries that without free trade agreements with the United States. Environmental critics of natural gas railed against FERC’s gas decisions Thursday. “It’s alarming that FERC would approve the Saguaro Connector Pipeline based on a narrow environmental assessment that ignores the vast majority of the project and its impacts,” Doug Hayes, senior attorney for Sierra Club’s Environmental Law Program, said in a statement. Hayes called FERC “out of step with the reality of the climate crisis and communities impacted by these projects.”
What’s at Stake if the U.S. OK’s Building This Gas Pipeline to Mexico – DeSmog - In a rural area of West Texas, near the Mexico border, a cluster of geothermal springs once served as an oasis to the Carrizo/Comecrudo Tribe of Texas. Carpeted in grasses and shrubs, the land is home to rare aoudad sheep, deer, wild cats, and bobwhite quail. The muted tans and greens in the small valley and surrounding exposed rock mountains quiet the mind.The pristine site is in the proposed pathway of the 48-inch-diameter Saguaro Connector Pipeline, which would send natural gas produced in Texas’s Permian Basin 155 miles west, across the U.S.-Mexico border, to a liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility in Puerto Libertad, Mexico.“Our concern is that the pipeline is going to go through the hot springs,” said Christa Mancias-Zapata, the executive director of the Carrizo/Comecrudo Tribe of Texas. “Anywhere you go in that area is a sacred site to our people.”Mancias-Zapata’s ancestors lived along the Rio Grande River delta and migrated to the site, called Indian Hot Springs, during hurricane season. The hot springs are located in the Chihuahuan Desert, making them a precious water resource for bathing and survival. Some also believed the minerals in the springs had healing properties. Local opposition to the pipeline, which would pass near the edge of the small town of Van Horn, is widespread. But a back-and-forth in permitting documentation between federal agencies and the company proposing the pipeline, ONEOK Inc, indicates a conflict within the White House with how to weigh its climate impacts, which could send up to 2.8 billion cubic feet of fracked gas per day to Mexico’s Pacific coast for export as LNG. The pipeline has not been approved yet by the Federal Energy and Regulatory Commission (FERC), which is only considering the impacts of the 1,000-foot segment of pipeline that crosses the border into Mexico. FERC is scheduled to consider approving the pipeline on Thursday. In Texas, pipelines don’t need to be permitted before they are built. Still, ONEOK has filed the required paperwork with the state.“For the Saguaro Connector Pipeline project, cultural and environmental surveys were conducted and provided to FERC and other stakeholders,” ONEOK spokesperson Annell Morrow wrote in an email. “Saguaro considered, and will continue to consider input from those stakeholders on the project location.”Last month, the Biden administration announced a pause in the permitting of 17 proposed LNG export facilities, including the largest in the U.S., Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass 2 (CP2) LNG terminal, to allow the Department of Energy time to analyze the projects’ potential contributions to climate change and impacts on energy costs for Americans. A third-party lifecycle emissions analysis by Jeremy Symons, a former climate policy advisor for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, found that the CP2 project could result in 20 times more emissionsthan the controversial Willow drilling project in Alaska, which was approved by the administration last year. All together, the 17 proposed LNG export facilities that have been paused, and five that are under construction and not affected by the pause, could emit as much greenhouse gas as 675 coal-fired power plants.
EIA Estimates USA Crude Oil Output Hit All Time High In December - In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated that U.S. crude oil production reached “an all-time high in December of more than 13.3 million barrels per day”. The EIA noted in the STEO, however, that crude oil production fell to 12.6 million barrels per day in January “because of shut-ins related to cold weather”. “We forecast production will return to almost 13.3 million barrels per day in February but then decrease slightly through the middle of 2024 and will not exceed the December 2023 record until February 2025,” the EIA said in the STEO. In its latest STEO, the EIA highlighted that U.S. crude oil supply averaged 12.93 million barrels per day in 2023, comprising 10.64 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.87 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.43 million barrels per day from Alaska. The organization outlined that the country’s crude oil output averaged 12.63 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 12.75 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.07 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.29 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Looking ahead, the EIA projected in the STEO that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.10 million barrels per day in 2024, comprising 10.75 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.94 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.41 million barrels per day from Alaska. U.S. output is expected to average 13.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, 13.12 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.06 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.18 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, the report outlined. In 2025, the EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to come in at 13.49 million barrels per day, comprising 11.11 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.98 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.40 million barrels per day from Alaska, according to the report. The EIA projects in the report that U.S. crude output will average 13.37 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025, 13.46 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 13.50 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 13.64 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of next year. In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA pegged 2023 U.S. crude oil supply at 12.92 million barrels per day, comprising 10.62 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.87 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.43 million barrels per day from Alaska. That STEO projected that U.S. crude oil production would average 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024, comprising 10.88 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.92 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.41 million barrels per day from Alaska. It also forecast that U.S. crude oil supply would average 13.44 million barrels per day in 2025, comprising 11.08 million barrels per day from Lower 48 states, excluding the Gulf of Mexico, 1.97 million barrels per day from the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and 0.40 million barrels per day from Alaska.
US oil output from top shale regions to rise in March -EIA - (Reuters) - U.S. oil output from top shale-producing regions will rise in March to its highest in four months, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report. Production from the top basins will rise by nearly 20,000 to 9.7 million barrels per day, its highest since December, EIA said. Oil output in the Permian basin, the largest shale field spread across West Texas and New Mexico, was due to rise by about 14,000 to 6.1 million bpd, the second highest monthly output on record after November, the EIA said. Production in the Eagle Ford in southeast Texas was due to rise to 1.1 million bpd, the highest since September, the EIA said. In the Bakken, output was set to rise to 1.2 million bpd, the highest since December. Sponsored Links
Report: Texas’ oil, gas production continues to surge - A report from the Texas Oil and Gas Association shows that the state’s energy industry is showing no signs of waning, boasting record levels of crude oil production as the federal government introduced further environmental regulations that industry leaders said are designed to hinder production. The latest version of the group’s annual report said that oil and gas companies paid $26.3 billion in state and local taxes in 2023, $1.5 billion more than last year, due in part to record fossil fuel extraction throughout the state. The report also said the oil and gas industry employed more than 480,000 Texans who make an average of $124,000 a year. Todd Staples, the association’s president, said the industry "has achieved these record-breaking milestones in spite of our federal government using every opportunity to thwart growth by delaying permits, canceling pipelines and introducing regulatory uncertainty.” President Joe Biden has taken steps to limit the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas industry through fossil fuel burning — which scientists have said contributes to climate change — with the Environmental Protection Agency finalizing a regulation in December directing operators to reduce their methane output. The administration also cut back on offshore drilling, awarding just three oil and gas leases through 2029. Last week, the administration halted pending approvals for some facilities that would export liquefied natural gas to other nations while the Department of Energy assesses their economic and environmental impacts. The product of those efforts has scarcely impacted oil and gas production in Texas. According to the Energy Information Administration, the state has outpaced the nation in oil and gas extraction and refining. Forbes reported in December that the U.S. set a new annual oil production record, based on federal data. The federal agency suggested in a report earlier this month that crude oil production in the U.S. will set records in 2024 and 2025 due to increased industry efficiency. However, growth will slow due to fewer active drilling rigs. Texas oil and gas companies produced as much as 5.6 million barrels a day in 2023, the highest that year, according to the agency, which collects and administers energy statistics. The state with the next highest production was New Mexico, which produced 1.8 million barrels a day at its peak. “2023 was such a blockbuster year that Texas effectively rewrote its oil and natural gas record book,” Staples said.
EIA Reports USA Crude Oil Stock Increase on Valentine's Day - In its latest weekly petroleum status report, which was released on Valentine’s Day, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 12.0 million barrels from the week ending February 2 to the week ending February 9. Crude oil stocks in the U.S., not including the SPR, stood at 439.5 million barrels on February 9, 427.4 million barrels on February 2, and 471.4 million barrels on February 10, 2023, the report showed. Crude oil in the SPR totaled 358.8 million barrels on February 9, 358.0 million barrels on February 2, and 371.6 million barrels on February 10, 2023, the report revealed. Total petroleum stocks in the U.S. – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.591 billion barrels on February 9, the report outlined. This figure was up 5.9 million barrels week on week and down 38.7 million barrels year on year, the report highlighted. “At 439.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about two percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA noted in its latest report. “Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels from last week and are about two percent below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, while blending components inventories decreased last week,” it added. “Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week and are about seven percent below the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels from last week and are one percent above the five year average for this time of year,” it continued. The EIA revealed in the report that U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.5 million barrels per day during the week ending February 9, which it said was 297,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. “Refineries operated at 80.6 percent of their operable capacity last week,” the EIA said in the report. “Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.1 million barrels per day,” it added. According to the EIA report, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, which the organization outlined was a decrease of 437,000 barrels per day from the previous week. “Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.1 million barrels per day, 7.2 percent less than the same four-week period last year,” the EIA said in the report. “Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 436,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 135,000 barrels per day,” it added. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.8 million barrels a day, the EIA revealed in the report, highlighting that this was down by 0.3 percent from the same period last year. “Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.3 million barrels a day, down by 1.0 percent from the same period last year,” the EIA said in its report. “Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 2.3 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.5 percent compared with the same four-week period last year,” it added.
Bad River Band and Enbridge offer oral arguments in Line 5 shutdown appeal ⋆ Representatives of the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and Canadian pipeline company Enbridge Inc. gave their oral arguments before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit in Chicago on the case appealing the shutdown of Enbridge’s controversial Line 5 pipeline. The suit began in 2019, when the Bad River Band took action to remove the pipeline from their territory in Wisconsin after refusing to renew an easement on the pipeline that travels through the Bad River reservation, citing environmental concerns. While the easement expired in 2013, Enbridge refused to remove the pipeline from the parcels of land owned entirely, or partly by the tribe. The Bad River Band later filed for injunctive relief in May 2023, after spring flooding events created concerns that the pipeline would be exposed and ruptured. Line 5 stretches from Northwest Wisconsin, through Michigan into Sarnia, Ontario. It transports up to 540,000 barrels per day of crude oil and natural gas liquids. The U.S. Western District Court of Wisconsin ruled on June 16, 2023, that the pipeline company must shut down the section of Line 5 running through the tribe’s sovereign territory by June 2026, and pay the tribe $5.1 million, according to For Love of Water (FLOW), an advocacy group pushing to protect the health and access to water in the Great Lakes Basin. However, the court denied the Bad River Band’s request for an immediate injunction against Enbridge, with District Judge William M. Conley writing in his opinion that “an immediate shutdown of the pipeline would have significant public and foreign policy implications.” Enbridge appealed the decision. On Thursday, Enbridge attorney Alice Loughan argued the Bad River Band was not acting in accordance with the 1992 easement agreement, and that Conley’s order violated the 1977 transit treaty, which limits the authority of the U.S. and Canada to impede the flow of oil and natural gas between nations, according to FLOW. Enbridge Spokesperson Ryan Duffy said in a statement that Enbridge was not trespassing, as the 1992 treaty allows the company to remain on the reservation through 2043. Paul Clement, representing the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa, encouraged the court to affirm the lower court’s decision and to require an immediate shutdown of the pipeline rather than the current 2026 deadline, citing continued concerns with spring flooding and erosion. In his statement, Duffy said shutting down the pipeline before Enbridge can finish relocating the pipeline outside the reservation would “negatively impact businesses, communities and millions of individuals” who rely on the pipeline for energy. He also said the Canadian government had argued a shutdown before the pipeline can be relocated would violate the transit treaty. While a November report found the pipeline could be shut down without any shortages or price increases, Duffy responded to the report saying some of the report’s proposed solutions — such as transporting using rail and watercraft — would put the environment at risk. According to FLOW, the U.S. Appeals Court for the Sixth Circuit will hear oral arguments on March 21 in Nessel v. Enbridge, in which Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel is seeking to shut down the pipeline in the Straits of Mackinac, due to concerns that the pipeline could rupture, leading to a catastrophic oil spill. Nessel will argue that the case rightfully belongs in state court, rather than federal court. Four tribal nations in Michigan — The Bay Mills Indian Community, Grand Traverse Band of Ottawa and Chippewa Indians, Little Traverse Bay Bands of Odawa Indians, and Nottawaseppi Huron Band of the Potawatomi — have also appealed a permitting decision from the Michigan Public Service Commission that would allow Enbridge to move forward with its Line 5 tunnel project, proposed as a solution to concerns of an oil spill in the straits of Mackinac. The project has received two of the three permit approvals needed to move forward, however the project’s approval from the Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy (EGLE) has also been challenged by the Bay Mills Indian Community. Both Enbridge and the tunnel’s opponents have spoken out against the USACE’s decision to delay publishing its Environmental Impact Statement on the project which is projected to publish in Spring 2025. Enbridge has argued this will delay the start of construction until 2026, while pipeline opponents are concerned this delay in decision making creates a greater window for disaster within the Straits.
Inside the decade-long campaign against the anti-pipeline fight | On the morning of March 5, 2012, Debra White Plume received an urgent phone call. A convoy of large trucks transporting pipeline servicing equipment was attempting to cross the Pine Ridge Reservation near the town of Wanblee, South Dakota. White Plume, a prominent Lakota activist, immediately dropped what she was doing and headed to the site, where, within a few hours, a group of about 75 people from the Pine Ridge Reservation gathered. “We have resolutions opposing the whole entity of the tar sands oil mine and the Keystone XL pipeline,” White Plume declaredafter arriving at the site where the trucks had been stopped. “They need to turn around and go back. … They are not coming through here.” The standoff in Wanblee was a relatively small protest compared to subsequent actions against the Keystone XL pipeline, which drew tens of thousands into the streets of Washington, D.C., and garnered national attention. Police arrested five activists, including White Plume (who died in 2020) and her husband, Alex White Plume Sr., on charges of disorderly conduct, and released them later that day. Beyond a few stories in Indigenous news outlets and regional papers, the protest hardly registered. Though tribes and landowners in the region had begun organizing around Keystone XL in 2011 and 2012, the pipeline had not yet become the galvanizing force for one of the largest campaigns in the history of the modern environmental movement. But the events in Wanblee did capture the attention of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, which began tracking Native groups campaigning against the pipeline in early 2012. According to documents obtained by Grist and Type Investigations through a Freedom of Information Act request, the FBI’s Minneapolis office opened a counterterrorism assessment in February 2012, focusing on actions in South Dakota, that continued for at least a year and may have led to the opening of additional investigations. These documents reveal that the FBI was monitoring activists involved in the Keystone XL campaign about a year earlier than previously known. Their contents suggest that, long before the Keystone and Dakota Access pipelines became national flashpoints, the federal government was already developing a sweeping law enforcement strategy to counter any acts of civil disobedience aimed at preventing fossil fuel extraction. And young, Native activists were among its first targets.“The threat emerging … is evolving into one based on opposition to energy exploration related to any extractions from the earth, rather than merely targeting one project and/or one company,” the FBI noted in its description of the Wanblee blockade.The 15-page file, which is heavily redacted, also describes Native American groups as a potentially dangerous threat and likens them to “environmental extremists” whose actions, according to the FBI, could lead to violence. The FBI acknowledged that Native American groups were engaging in constitutionally protected activity, including attending public hearings, but emphasized that this sort of civic participation might spawn criminal activity. To back up its claims, the FBI cited a 2011 State Department hearing on the pipeline in Pierre, South Dakota, attended by a small group of Native activists. The FBI said the individuals were dressed in camouflage and had covered their faces with red bandanas, “train robber style.” According to the report, they were also carrying walking sticks and shaking sage, claiming to be “Wounded Knee Security of/for Mother Earth.”“The Bureau is uncertain how the NA group(s) will act initially or subsequently if the project is approved,” the agency wrote.
Firefighters Respond to 150 Gallon Oil Spill in Antioch - At around 12:00 pm Wednesday, the Contra Costa County Fire Protection District was dispatched to the 3200 block of Delta Fair in the City of Antioch on a report of an oil spill. Initial reports stated approximently a 500 gallon oil truck was leaking. However, upon arrival, Contra Costa County firefighters reported 150 gallons of oil were on the ground and were contained. The reported the roadway could be open, however, a major cleanup effort was required. A short time later, it was determined to be motor oil. The spill was ultimately located between the Firestone Tire Shop and the bowling alley some oil spill at the tire shop. Several people reported this being a used oil container spilled over on truck picking it up from Firestone tire 1:00 pm Update from Contra Costa County Fire: On February 4, 2024, just after 12:00 p.m., Contra Costa Fire responded to Antioch for reports of a large oil spill. Firefighters found a 300 gallon container had been accidentally punctured and spilled approximately 150 gallons into a parking lot. Crews ensured the spill was contained and assisted with clean-up. No injuries were reported and there was no impact to storm drains or waterways.
A Biden oil sale may tick off the TikTok generation - President Joe Biden has a potential climate headache brewing in Alaska, where a congressionally imposed deadline requires him to hold an oil lease sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by December. It’s an unwelcome mandate for the president with the election looming, as he tries to woo voters concerned about climate change without putting off independents who may share Republicans’ rosier views of fossil fuel development. The challenge for Biden is particularly stark given how many Americans are unaware of the president’s signature climate actions, such as the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. A Yale University poll released in December found that 58 percent of voters had heard “a little” about the law, which provided at least $369 billion in federal money to steer a transition to green energy. Biden’s record on federal drilling has been mixed. He’s throttled new leasing in many areas while increasing royalties and attempting to overhaul environmental regulations. Last year, he also canceled leases in the ANWR sold during the Trump administration. Most recently, he froze new permitting for natural gas exports so his agencies can review the climate and energy impacts of shipping the fossil fuel. But the president has also approved more new oil and gas wells than former President Donald Trump did in his first three years in office. Last year, Biden took a massive hit to his climate-conscious reputation when he approved ConocoPhillips’ Willow oil project in Alaska, with anger at the approval ricocheting across social media platforms like TikTok. Supporters of Biden are hoping he doesn’t catch the blame for the upcoming Arctic oil sale, given that he inherited it when he took office. The Republican tax overhaul in 2017 requires the sale — the second ever in the refuge. Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate official, said the sale may not attract much industry attention or cause significant climate damage. The first ANWR auction, held at the tail end of the Trump administration, brought in only three bidders. “[Activists will] try to dramatize the irony that the climate-friendly president may be forced to do this,” Bledsoe said “But the truth of the matter is that it’s very unlikely that any of those leases are going to end up resulting in production.” Still, the president has proved reluctant to tamp down oil and gas production in the U.S. since taking office, and an oil sale in the sensitive Arctic refuge could add to boiling anger from some younger climate voters. “He can’t throw a bone to young people Monday, cave to oil and gas millionaires Tuesday, and expect to get young people to turn out for him,” said Stevie O’Hanlon, communications director for the Sunrise Movement, a climate organization.
Arc Resources Eyeing LNG Canada, Gulf Coast Exports to Fetch Top Prices for Montney Natural Gas - Calgary-based Arc Resources Ltd. plans to expand its Montney Shale natural gas production this year as it builds reserves for selling up to 25% of future output to global markets to capture the LNG export premium. To execute its strategy, total production in 2024 is forecast to average 350,000-360,000 boe/d, 63% weighted to natural gas. In 2025, output would average 375,000-400,000 boe/d, 60% gas weighted, CEO Terry Anderson said in the recent fourth quarter conference call. “Our approach is simple in concept,” he said. It’s to ensure a “balanced investment in our assets, with a meaningful return of capital to shareholders, guided by our principles of discipline and financial strength.
Mexico begins its own LNG buildout as US developers look to the south - At least a half-dozen LNG export projects are underway in the country — but whether most are completed will depend on politics to the north.LNG pipes at Sempra Energy's Costa Azul import terminal near Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico. Plans are in the works to add liquefaction and export capabilities to the site. (Don Bartletti/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images)Environmental activists have turned a spotlight in recent months on the rapid expansion of liquefied natural gas export terminals along the Gulf Coast of the United States, calling attention to the ramifications for nearby communities and the climate.But another buildout of liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals is occurring farther to the south, and this one so far has faced less public scrutiny.At least a half-dozen LNG export projects are in progress in Mexico, split evenly across the country’s east and west coasts. At least two of these facilities are under construction: New Fortress Energy’s Altamira plant in Tamaulipas, which is expected to begin operations in the next several months after its original startup date was pushed back last fall, and Sempra’s EnergÃa Costa Azul plant at an existing LNG import terminal in Baja California. The remaining proposals are in earlier, and less certain, stages of development.While the planned export terminals are located in Mexico, they will mostly process and ship natural gas that is sent in by pipeline from gas fields in the U.S., including the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico. Western drillers with large gas supplies and limited access to the Gulf have viewed Mexico as their most promising gateway to international markets ever since plans for terminals on the U.S. West Coast fell through.The U.S. already exports more gas to Mexico than to any other country: Nearly one-third of all U.S. gas exports — just under 5% of total U.S. gas production — went to Mexico in 2022, federal data shows. Virtually all of it was transported by pipeline. Mexico, for its part, imports abouttwice as much gas from the U.S. as it produces domestically. “Mexico is highly dependent on natural gas, and it is highly dependent on those natural gas imports,” said Diego Rivera Rivota, a senior research associate at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “Virtually all — 99% — of imports come from the United States, and in particular, from Texas.” The U.S. averaged close to 11 billion cubic feet of LNG exports globally and 6 billion cubic feet of pipeline exports to Mexico per day in 2022. The combined capacity of the six Mexican export projects that are currently moving forward, by comparison, is between 5 billion and 6 billion cubic feet per day. If all of the proposed stages are completed, the new export capacity will amount to approximately two-thirds of Mexico’s current total daily gas demand.“If some of these projects — not even all of them, but some of these projects — did come to fruition, then that would put severe stress on the flows and the existing infrastructure pipeline capacity in Mexico,” Rivera Rivota said. The emergence of an export market that uses gas from the U.S., he went on, could create “competition with domestic demand, as well as other potential LNG export projects.” Federal analyses have repeatedly found over the last decade that increased U.S. LNG exports will result in higher prices for American consumers, despite also spurring more gas production. Because most of the LNG shipped out of Mexico will come from the U.S., its effects on the market will be felt across both countries.
Mexico Government Grants Pemex Billions in Tax Relief - Mexico’s government granted state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos billions of dollars in taxes relief, days after the debt-ridden company received a double-credit downgrade at Moody’s Investors Service. President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on Tuesday published a decree that removed so-called DUC levies on Pemex for the four months through January. The ruling saves the company about 70 billion Mexican pesos ($4.1 billion), according to an official with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because they are not authorized to speak to the media. The tax relief is the latest aid for Pemex provided by Lopez Obrador, known as AMLO, who has made the revival of the company one of the central platforms of his government, which ends this year. Moody’s had cut the oil producer deeper into junk territory Friday, warning it could face a distressed debt exchange without continued government support. Pemex bonds held steady even after faster-than-expected US inflation damped bets on the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The extra yield that investors demand to hold Pemex 2060 bonds over comparable sovereign bonds narrowed 17 basis points to 4.74 percent. The fresh aid comes on top of unprecedented budgetary support for Pemex this year. The oil driller’s debt has rallied since late 2023 when AMLO explicitly put 145 billion Mexican pesos ($8.5 billion) in the fiscal budget to help the company meet debt payments, after years of ad hoc capital injections and tax breaks to support the driller. The 2024 budget also further lowered the DUC. The government has not presented a longer-term plan for reducing the company’s debt burden. Moody’s analysts wrote in their rating downgrade on Friday that they expect free cash flow and credit metrics to worsen in the next three years. They added that they see potential for a distressed debt exchange.
Mystery ship capsizes in Trinidad and Tobago, triggering massive oil spill and national emergency - Emergency workers in Trinidad and Tobago are racing to clean up a massive oil spill after a mystery vessel ran aground near the Caribbean islands, casting a pall over Carnival tourism. The spill was "not under control" as of Sunday, said Prime Minister Keith Rowley, who added that the country is grappling with a national emergency. The mystery vessel capsized Wednesday, having made no emergency calls, with no sign of crew, and no clear sign of ownership.Rowley on Sunday declared a national emergency as oil leaking from the vessel affected nearly 10 miles of coastline. "Cleaning and restoration can only begin as soon as we have the situation under control. Right now the situation is not under control," the prime minister told journalists.Divers have so far been unable to plug the leak.Hundreds of volunteers have been toiling since Thursday to halt the spread of the oil, and the government has asked for even more to lend a hand. Images and video released by the government showed crews working late into the night Sunday.The leak has damaged a reef and Atlantic beaches, and residents of the village of Lambeau have been advised to wear masks or temporarily relocate.The government posted satellite imagery on social media, showing affected areas."The satellite imagery reveals a distinctive silver-like slick emanating from the overturned wrecked vessel. Additionally, there are noticeable streaks of a thick, black-like substance accompanying the spill," the post says.
1,000 volunteers scramble in Caribbean to clean up massive oil spill by Trinidad and Tobago just before Carnival | South China Morning Post - A mystery vessel has run aground near Trinidad and Tobago, affecting at least 15km of coastline, at Carnival time. The island nation says it is ready to accept help. The ship, identified as The Gulfstream, was sailing under an unidentified flag, made no emergency calls and had no sign of life on board. Emergency workers in Trinidad and Tobago are scrambling to clean up a massive oil spill after a mystery vessel ran aground near the Caribbean island, casting a pall over Carnival tourism. At least 15km (around 10 miles) of coastline have been affected in Tobago and authorities were poised to declare a national emergency, Farley Augustine, chief secretary of the Tobago House of Assembly, told reporters on Saturday. Environmental officials said the spill has damaged a reef and Atlantic beaches, boding ill for the island’s resorts and hotels, the lifeline of the local economy during Carnival season. Augustine said the government may elevate the accident to a Level 3 disaster, adding, “everything indicates that we are going in that direction”. The mystery vessel, identified as The Gulfstream, capsized on Wednesday off the coast of the Cove Eco-Industrial Park in southern Tobago, and currents have dragged the boat shoreward.When sighted on Wednesday, the ship was sailing under an unidentified flag and made no emergency calls. The island’s Emergency Management Agency said there were no signs of life on the vessel, whose cargo was initially believed to consist of sand and wood. The agency released photos of an estimated 1,000 volunteers in protective white jumpsuits working to remove oil from beaches. Divers were preparing to plug a leak in the ship, Augustine added. For now, according to one government source, “all the coastguard’s efforts are aimed at containing the oil spill”. The source, speaking on grounds of anonymity, said it would be “some time” before investigators could determine the ship’s origins, ownership and intended destination. Augustine said the island was ready to accept help from other countries and had received offers of assistance. Energy Minister Stuart Young from Trinidad travelled to Tobago and said the main island was ready to offer “any assistance that can be provided”. The disaster comes on the eve of Carnival, and Dave Tancoo, an opposition member of Parliament, said tour operators were likely to face considerable losses at a time when they usually see peak profits. “This opportunity was cruelly taken away from them,” he said.
Trinidad and Tobago declares ‘national emergency’ as oil spill from mystery vessel pollutes beaches | CNN — An overturned vessel has caused a huge oil spill along Trinidad and Tobago’s coastline, in what the Caribbean country’s prime minister described as a “national emergency” on Sunday. The spill occurred on February 7 off the southern shores of the Tobago Island, according to the country’s Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM). About 15 kilometers (9 miles) of the coastline “is now blackened,” the agency said in a statement Saturday. Photos from the scene show recovery workers wading through thick black sludge, with huge areas of the beach covered in oil. Several government agencies, including at least 1,000 volunteers, have been working to control the spill. Prime Minister Keith Rowley said in a news conference Sunday that “the situation is not under control.” The origins of the vessel have not yet been identified, he added. “This is a national emergency and therefore it will have to be funded as an extraordinary expense,” Rowley said, adding, “we don’t know the full scope and scale of what is going to be required.” Authorities installed booms - floating barriers - to prevent the spill from spreading to other areas, said Farley Augustine, the chief secretary of the Tobago House of Assembly. Officials have also dispatched divers to try to plug the leak but have not been successful. “What has to happen is that we have to find a way to now extract every bit of oil that’s in the vessel, bearing in mind as we have been reiterating – not knowing the schematics of the vessel,” Augustine told reporters.
Two vessels involved in Trinidad oil spill - At least two vessels, a barge and a tugboat, were involved in the accident last week that sparked a massive, ongoingoil spill in Trinidad andTobago, the government of the Caribbean nation said Wednesday. Authorities had been scrambling to figure out what happened after a mystery vessel -- now understood to be the barge -- capsized on February 7, after having made no emergency calls and with no sign of crew, and no clear sign of ownership. Divers had previously spotted the name "Gulfstream" on the oil-leaking barge's side. The Coast Guard has "confirmed that the barge was being towed by a tug, the Solo Creed, from Panama," according to the statement. Investigations by the Trinidad and Tobago Coast Guard revealed that the vessels "appear to have been bound for Guyana," according to a statement from the Ministry of National Security. "However, the Guyanese authorities have confirmed that neither vessel arrived as anticipated. At this state, it is not known whether any lives have been lost in the incident," it continued. It said satellite imagery had shown the Solo Creed tugging an object on February 4. "We have been working very closely with the Guyana Coast Guard in this critical matter and we appreciate their full-scale support," said Trinidad and Tobago's Minister of National Security, Fitzgerald Hinds, in the statement.Hundreds of volunteers have been toiling since Thursday to halt the spread of the oil, and the government has asked for even more to lend a hand.The leak has damaged a reef and Atlantic beaches, and residents of the village of Lambeau have been advised to wear masks or temporarily relocate. The spill comes at the height of carnival, threatening the tourist business that is crucial to the dual-island nation's economy.
Oil spill from Tobago spreads over 160 km towards Grenada’s marine area - Satellite images from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission have revealed the scale of an oil spill off Trinidad and Tobago’s coast, following the Gulfstream shipwreck. The spill has extended over 160 km (100 miles) westwards a week after the incident, threatening neighboring marine areas. A maritime disaster occurred off the southern shores of Tobago Island on February 7, 2024, when an unidentified vessel ran aground and overturned, leading to a significant oil spill in the surrounding waters. The resulting spill has coated beaches and wildlife, leading the government to declare a national emergency. The vessel involved in the oil spill off Trinidad and Tobago’s coast, initially identified as the “Gulfstream,” has been a subject of investigation due to the absence of an International Maritime Organization (IMO) registration number. Research, including contributions from volunteers in Bellingcat’s Discord community, indicates that the vessel is likely an unpowered barge, part of an articulated tug and barge system, explaining the lack of a registration number. Trinidad and Tobago’s Ministry of National Security announced on February 14 that two vessels were implicated in the incident: a tugboat named Solo Creed, en route from Panama to Guyana, and an unnamed barge, identified as the source of the “black, oily deposits” observed off the Tobago coast. Satellite imagery provided by the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission has played a crucial role in understanding the extent of the spill, which has now spread over 160 km (100 miles) westwards from the incident site. The latest images above, captured on February 14 at 22:18 UTC, show the spill moving out of Trinidad and Tobago’s marine jurisdiction and encroaching upon the southern marine area of Grenada. This development raises concerns about the potential environmental impact on Grenada’s waters and the broader implications for neighboring Venezuela. Radar aboard Sentinel-1, renowned for its effectiveness in monitoring oil spills, has been instrumental in tracking the spill’s progression. The technology’s ability to detect changes in surface texture due to oil’s dampening effect on sea waves has allowed for clear visualization of the spill as dark smears against the ocean’s grey background. In response to the disaster, national authorities, including the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management, have activated the International Charter Space and Major Disasters. This activation aims to coordinate satellite imagery analysis and facilitate timely and effective monitoring efforts to mitigate the spill’s environmental consequences.
Tobago oil spill spreads to Grenada waters and could affect Venezuela An oil spill that has stained Tobago’s coastline in the Caribbean is entering Grenada’s waters and could affect neighboring Venezuela, authorities have warned. Eight days after Trinidad and Tobago’s coastguard first spotted the oil from an overturned and abandoned barge, the vessel continues to leak fuel, and portions of the stain have moved about 144km (89 miles) into the Caribbean Sea at a rate of 14km/h. “It has now entered Grenada’s territorial waters,” said Tobago’s chief secretary, Farley Augustine, following a fly-over by Trinidad and Tobago’s air guard. Augustine said the situation was now under control with a 40ft perimeter supported by booms around the wreckage, but said fuel continued to leak from the sunken vessel. “We are unable to plug the leak and unless we have information on how much fuel is in the barge or what exactly it contains we cannot move forward, except containment and skimming,” he added. Before and after satellite images compiled by the Guardian and superimposed on one another showed the scale of the spill on the Tobago coastline, leaving large areas dyed black.Authorities in Grenada, Panama, Aruba and Guyana have been contacted by Trinidad and the regional group Caricom for information as part of an investigation into the disaster. A preliminary investigation found that the barge, whose owner and origin have not been confirmed, was being tugged to nearby Guyana. Venezuela’s foreign affairs ministry said the country was monitoring the spill and had initiated meetings with Trinidad’s government to coordinate action. Officials have said it was not clear if anybody was onboard the barge when it overturned and apparently began to sink off Tobago’s coast. They are still searching for the tug boat and its owner. The spill has angered many residents of the twin-island nation. Augustine, called on the owner of the barge step forward and pay for the cleanup. “We have a lot of questions, and now is the best time to have those questions answered,” he told reporters on Wednesday. “We need to know the quantity and the material you were transporting, so we know what we have been dealing with, what we have been walking in, what we have been swimming in, what we have been trying to clean up from our shores,” Augustine said.
River Avon: Work under way after heating oil spill pollutes river - Booms have been placed across a section of the River Avon in Wiltshire, following an oil spill. Up to 1,000 litres (220 gallons) of heating oil is thought to have spilled into the water at Fordbrook Business Park, near Pewsey. The spill has now spread up to 1km (0.6 miles), a spokesperson for the Environment Agency (EA) said. The booms in the river were placed to prevent the pollution spreading further. The Environment Agency spokesperson said officers attended the site on Saturday morning following reports from the public of a fuel spill covering 600m on the River Avon. "Our officers have worked with Wiltshire Fire and Rescue Service and have identified the source as being heating oil which supplies offices on an industrial estate," they said. "It is confirmed that the heating oil tank is empty and has lost approximately 1,000 litres. "We now have a team attending who will be placing booms to prevent further spread."
Oil and Gas Firms Offshore Norway Seen Spending More in 2024 - Oil and gas companies operating off the Norwegian coast will spend an estimated 244 billion kroner ($23 billion) this year, 5 percent more than previously forecast.Investments in hydrocarbon extraction and pipeline transport are now forecast to be 13 percent higher in 2024, compared to a final investment figure of 215 billion kroner for 2023, Statistics Norway said on Thursday. Spending in 2025 is forecast to be 205 billion kroner, the agency said. The higher estimate for 2024 spending reflects greater investment in “fields on stream, field development and pipeline transportation,” the statistics office said. “Markedly higher” spending on field development contributed to a 22 percent increase in investment in 2023 compared with 2022.
Centrica Inks 3-Year LNG Supply Deal with Repsol -Centrica Energy has signed an agreement to purchase one million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments between 2025 and 2027 from Spain’s Repsol SA. The LNG will be delivered to the Grain LNG import terminal in Kent. The agreement is “an additional move by Centrica to build further resilience in the United Kingdom’s (UK) energy security", Centrica said in a news release Wednesday. The financial details were not disclosed. “When our security of supply is threatened, it’s customers that lose out, so it’s reassuring that this agreement will ultimately help ensure that those on the front line of the energy crisis have some insulation from price fluctuations”. "Natural gas is an essential transition fuel in the move to net zero and securing international agreements such as this will be vital if the UK is to reach its ambitious goals. Alongside the other steps we’ve taken to make the UK more resilient – through deals with Delfin Midstream and Equinor – our actions demonstrate our commitment to the UK consumer. We stand ready to invest several billion pounds in additional projects, creating thousands of new UK jobs, with the right regulatory framework”, O’Shea continued. Centrica in July 2023 signed an $8 billion sale and purchase agreement with Delfin Midstream Inc. for one million tons per annum of LNG for 15-years on a free-on-board basis at the Delfin Deepwater Port offshore Louisiana. Operations and first LNG are expected to start at the Delfin Deepwater Port in 2027, according to an earlier statement. The deal follows a heads of agreement between the two companies in August 2022. Centrica also secured a three-year supply agreement with Equinor aiming to heat 4.5 million UK homes through 2024. The UK firm also completed the reopening and expansion of the Rough gas storage facility in October 2022 and June 2023, respectively. The Rough facility currently provides half of the UK’s total gas storage capacity with the potential to store over 50 billion cubic feet of gas, enough to heat almost 10 percent of UK homes throughout winter, according to the release.
Spanish LNG imports, reloads down in January - Spanish liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports and reloads dropped in January compared to the same month last year, according to Enagas.LNG imports decreased by 13.9 percent to about 20 TWh in January and accounted for 65.4 percent of the total gas imports. In December, LNG imports reached some 15 TWh.Including pipeline imports from Algeria, France, and Portugal, gas imports to Spain reached about 32.3 TWh last month, a drop from some 34.2 TWh in January last year, Enagas said in its monthly report.Moreover, national gas demand in January rose by 13.3 percent year-on-year to some 33.6 TWh.Demand for power generation increased by 18.8 percent year-on-year to about 6.88 TWh last month, while conventional demand rose by 11.9 percent to 26.7 TWh, the LNG terminal operator said.The firm previously said that August of last year marked the first time in its history that Spain has managed to fill 100 percent of its underground storage facilities.Storage facilities were also full in October and November, they were 91 percent full in December, and 82 percent in January, according to Enagas.Enagas operates a large network of gas pipelines and has four LNG import plants in Barcelona, Huelva, Cartagena, and Gijon.It also owns 50 percent of the BBG regasification plant in Bilbao and 72.5 percent of the Sagunto plant, while Reganosa operates the Mugardos plant.In August, Spanish power group Endesa delivered the first commercial cargo to the El Musel LNG terminal in Gijon.
Algeria to Export Pipeline Gas to Germany -- Algerian oil and gas company Sonatrach signed a medium-term contract with gas supplier VNG Handel & Vertrieb GmbH (VNG) to supply pipeline natural gas to Germany. The agreement took place during a recent visit by a German delegation to Algiers. “We are happy to strengthen our energy business partnerships with Europe through this landmark agreement with the company VNG,” Rachid Hachichi Sonatrach CEO said. According to the company’s CEO Ulf Heitmuller, this makes VNG the first German company to purchase Algeria’s pipeline gas.
Russia ready to supply gas to Europe via safe Nord Stream 2: Putin - Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Germany does not resume the operation of the surviving pipe of Nord Stream 2, although Moscow is ready to supply gas through it, local media reported. "The matter is not only about Nord Stream 1, which was blown up. Nord Stream 2 was damaged, but one pipe is safe and sound, and gas can be supplied to Europe through it, but Germany does not open it," Putin said in an interview with US media personality Tucker Carlson, published on Friday. "There is another route through Poland, the Yamal-Europe pipeline, it is also possible to carry a large {ow," he said, adding that, however, Poland closed it, TASS reported. The Nord Stream pipelines, which transported natural gas from Russia to European markets via Germany, were severely damaged in September 2022 after blasts in the Baltic Sea, Xinhua news agency reported.
Iraq’s gas output to peak in 2028- Iraq’s gas production is expected to reach its highest level in 2028 after most major projects at key oilfields are completed, according to the Oil Ministry. Large contracts awarded to France’s TotalEnergies and other companies to tap associated gas at the OPEC member’s main oilfields will add large quantities of produced gas and allow Iraq to end the long-standing practice of gas flaring, the Ministry’s spokesman Assim Jihad told the official Iraqi News Agency. Jihad said in his weekend comments that as a result of these projects, Iraq’s gas output will increase gradually and peak in 2028. He said the contract awarded to TotalEnergies in 2023 would add nearly 600 million cubic feet per day (mcf/d) while another project undertaken by Basra Gas Company would produce 200 mcf/d. Other projects to tap Nahr bin Umar and Halfaya fields will add 600 mcf/d while development of fields in the Southern Dhi Qar governorate will boost output by nearly 200 mcf/d, Jihad added.
Nebula Energy Buys Majority Stake in AG&P LNG to Fast-Track Asian Natural Gas Projects - U.S.-based investment company Nebula Energy LLC has invested $300 million for an undisclosed majority stake in LNG terminal developer, AG&P Terminals & Logistics Pte Ltd (AG&P LNG). Nebula Energy is expanding its business in the liquified natural gas and carbon capture and storage sectors with its investment in AG&P LNG; with plans to fast-track LNG terminal and storage infrastructure development across emerging markets in South and Southeast Asia. “With this partnership, AG&P LNG will singularly serve as the one-point integrated source for the rapid unlocking of near-term market demand,” said AG&P LNG CEO Karthik Sathyamoorthy.
BMI Says Outlook for Asia Natural Gas Demand Remains Bullish - The outlook for Asia’s natural gas demand remains bullish. That’s according to a new report from BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, in which BMI analysts highlighted that China, India, and emerging LNG markets in Southeast and South Asian regions have set “ambitious” targets to increase the share of gas in their energy consumption mix. “The governments’ energy transition policies favoring gas as a transition fuel as part of the region’s broader decarbonization strategies will remain a key driver behind gas demand growth,” BMI analysts said in the report. “Fuel switching from coal to gas in [the] power sector, together with growing preference for gas for petrochemical production and policies promoting city gas market development in emerging Asian countries, will further drive strong growth in natural gas consumption,” they added. In the report the analysts said they project Asia’s natural gas consumption to grow at an annual average rate of 1.9 percent between 2023 and 2033, “with total gas consumption increasing from 921 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2022 to 1,132 bcm in 2033”. “We anticipate Asian LNG imports to increase further to 448 bcm in 2033 from 324 bcm in 2023, with a large share of incremental imports stemming from India and China,” the analysts added. The BMI analysts warned in the report that Asia will continue to face shortfalls in natural gas supplies to keep pace with demand growth, which they said will result in growing dependence on LNG imports from outside of the region. “Asia’s LNG demand growth trajectory will continue to be influenced by the pace at which the governments accelerate substitution of coal and refined fuels with natural gas in the power and industrial sectors,” the analysts highlighted in the report. China will continue to be a key driver behind the Asia’s long-term gas demand growth, the analysts pointed out in the report, outlining that the country will contribute close to 48 percent of incremental gas consumption. “China’s natural gas consumption is projected to increase … at an average growth rate of 2.5 percent annually between 2023 and 2033 with total demand rising from 369 bcm in 2023 to 470 bcm in 2033,” the analysts said in the report. “Besides strong demand growth from power, residential, and commercial sectors, natural gas demand from [the] petrochemical industry is expected to grow further as the state-owned companies are increasingly looking into chemical production from ethane,” they added, stating that Sinopec and PetroChina are investing in ethylene plants that use ethane as feedstocks. The analysts noted in the report that downside risks to China’s natural gas consumption will depend, to a large extent, on the pace at which renewable energy sources are developed to substitute natural gas in the power sector. “An aggressive renewables growth target is the most obvious and largest threat to gas, although perhaps outside the scope of our forecast period,” the analysts added. “China has put in place targets for non-fossil fuels, led by lower-cost renewables such as solar and wind, to account for 25 percent of the energy mix by 2030 and 80 percent by 2060,” they went on to state.
Spot LNG shipping rates rise for first time since November - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet rose for the first time since mid-November 2023, while European prices decreased this week compared to the week before. Last week, the Atlantic rate dropped 1 percent week-on-week to $52,750 per day and the Pacific rate decreased 3 percent to $53,250 per day. Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst, told LNG Prime on Friday that the Spark30S Atlantic increased by $1,750 (3 percent) to $54,500 per day, whilst the Spark25S Pacific increased by $4,250 (8 percent) to $57,500 per day. “The opening of the US arb to NE-Asia, coupled with the increased voyage time from the diversion of cargoes unable to transit Suez, are both likely contributory factors to this increase,” he said. Spot LNG shipping rates rise for first time since November Image: Spark LNG ships, including Qatari vessels delivering LNG shipments to Europe, are now favoring the Cape of Good Hope for safer passage. Kpler said in a report last week that the Suez Canal has witnessed no LNG transits since January 17. Vessels face an extra 21-day voyage time on a round-trip basis via the Cape of Good Hope as opposed to the Suez Canal, according to Kpler. The firm said on Thursday that Qatar’s LNG export rose in January despite Red Sea disruptions. “With increased shipments to Asia and a strategic shift in shipping routes, Qatar showcases resilience amidst challenges and shipped 5 percent more LNG to Asia in January than it did the month prior,” it said.In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month dropped compared to the last week. The NWE DES LNG for March delivery was assessed last week at $8.561/MMBtu and at a $0.64/MMBtu discount to the TTF. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price for March delivery is assessed at $8.172/MMBtu and at a $0.60/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said. He said this is a $0.389/MMBtu decrease in DES LNG price, and a $0.04/MMBtu narrowing of the discount to the TTF. Levels of gas in storages in Europe remain high for this time of the year due to mild weather. Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that gas storages in the EU were 67.87 percent full on February 7. This week, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, dropped slightly when compared to the last week, according to Platts data. JKM for March settled at $9.450/MMBtu on Thursday.
QatarEnergy plans to book more giant LNG carriers in China - State-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy is looking to order more Q-Max LNG carriers in China as part of its massive shipbuilding program, according to shipbuilding sources. LNG Prime was the first to report in January this year that QatarEnergy signed a shipbuilding deal with China’s Hudong-Zhonghua for the construction of eight Q-Max type LNG carriers. The giant vessels will have a capacity of 271,000 cubic meters and are scheduled to be delivered in 2028 and 2029. Currently, the world’s largest LNG carriers are Qatar’s Q-Max vessels that are about 345 meters long and have a capacity of 263,000-266,000 cbm. Qatar’s Nakilat owns 14 Q-Max LNG carriers built by Hanwha Ocean (DSME) and Samsung Heavy between 2008 and 2010, and they all transport LNG from the giant Ras Laffan LNG complex in Qatar to customers around the globe. Prior to the order in China, LNG Prime reported in September last year that QatarEnergy was looking to order about 15 Q-Max LNG carriers in China and South Korea. However, it seems that QatarEnergy has ended talks in South Korea and is now working to sign a deal for more Q-Max vessels in China. Sources said that QatarEnergy is interested to book up to ten such vessels at Hudong-Zhonghua, but the deal has not been signed yet. According to the sources, the contract is expected to be finalized later this year.
Shell expects 50% rise in global LNG demand by 2040 (Reuters) - Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as China and countries in South and Southeast Asia use LNG to support their economic growth, Shell said on Wednesday.The market remains "structurally tight", with prices and price volatility remaining above historic averages, constraining growth, the world's largest LNG trader said in its 2024 annual LNG market outlook. Demand for natural gas has peaked in some regions, including Europe, Japan and Australia in the 2010s, but continues to rise globally, and is expected to reach around 625-685 million metric tons per year in 2040, Shell said. That is slightly lower than Shell's 2023 estimates of a global demand increase to 700 million tons by 2040."While things are relatively balanced and seemed relatively comfortable today, the market is still quite fragile," Steve Hill, executive vice president for Shell Energy, told analysts on a call following the outlook report."We have a structurally tight market that's been balanced by near-term market weakness for where we see fragility and volatility continuing," Hill said.Shell said that global demand for LNG is estimated to rise by more than 50% by 2040, as China and countries in South and Southeast Asia use LNG to support their economic growth.China, which in 2023 overtook Japan as the world's top LNG importer, is likely to dominate LNG demand growth this decade as its industry seeks to cutcarbon emissions by switching from coal to gas, the report said."China is the market that we are most bullish about this decade. And one of the reasons for that is the massive amount of new gas infrastructure that is coming on stream at the moment," Hill told analysts.China's 2024 LNG imports are expected to rebound to nearly 80 million tons, from about 70 million tons in 2023, according to ICIS and Rystad forecasts, surpassing 2021's record 78.79 million tons.From 2030 to 2040, declining domestic gas production in parts of South Asia and Southeast Asia could drive a surge in demand for LNG as these economies need fuel for gas-fired power plants or industry.Shell's report predicted a balance between rising demand and new supply for those regions, but said significant investments would be needed in gas import infrastructure."In the medium term, latent demand for LNG – especially in Asia – is set to consume new supply that is expected to come on to the market in the second half of the 2020s," the report said.
Industry to drive tripling of natural gas consumption in India by 2050 - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) In our International Energy Outlook 2023 (IEO2023), we project natural gas consumption to more than triple in India by 2050. We project annual growth of 4.4% over that period, more than twice the 2.0% annual growth rate of natural gas consumption in China, the next-fastest-growing country. We project that India’s industrial sector—in particular, ammonia production intended to decrease fertilizer imports—as well as a growing oil refining sector will drive most of the growth in natural gas consumption over the projection period. This growth in demand will require more significant increases in India's domestic natural gas supply and imports than in recent years. According to the International Energy Agency , India’s domestic natural gas production increased 2.4% annually on average between 2019 and 2022 as imports declined 1.5% annually. In 2022, 7.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas was consumed across the residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric power sectors. In 2022, the industrial sector accounted for more than 70% of total consumption, followed by the electric power sector at 17%. By 2050, we project natural gas consumption to rise in India to 23.2 Bcf/d. Among India’s five consuming sectors, we project the industrial sector’s share of natural gas consumption will grow the most, rising to 80% of total consumption, followed by the transportation sector rising to 10%.In 2022, about half of the natural gas consumption in India’s industrial sector was used to produce basic chemicals, mostly ammonia for fertilizer. The Indian government’s stated policy to develop self-sufficiency in the production of urea, a nitrogenous fertilizer produced from ammonia, drives much of our projected increase in natural gas demand. Natural gas is a key input for urea production.We also expect natural gas consumption in oil refining to grow significantly to keep up with India’s domestic demand for refined oil products. Between 2022 and 2050, we project that natural gas consumption will grow by more than 250% for the production of basic chemicals and by more than 400% for refining. We expect the two industries together to account for approximately 79% of India’s industrial natural gas demand in 2050.We project that both India’s domestic natural gas production and natural gas imports will help meet the growth in consumption of natural gas in India. We project domestic natural gas production to nearly triple in India from 3.3 Bcf/d in 2022 to 9.1 Bcf/d in 2050, a 3.7% average annual increase. We expect India’s net natural gas imports to grow even faster than domestic production, increasing from 3.6 Bcf/d in 2022 to 13.7 Bcf/d in 2050, a 4.9% average annual increase.
Iraq follows Russia as second largest oil supplier to India - Iraqi News - – Data issued by the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry revealed that Iraq was the second-largest oil supplier to India, after Russia, in December 2023. According to the figures, the cost of Russian crude oil exported to India decreased to $77.82 per barrel, compared to $79.34 per barrel for oil shipments imported from Iraq. Iraq and Russia are considered the largest suppliers to India, which is the third largest oil-consuming country in the world. Oil refineries in India have been rushing to buy low-priced Russian oil since early 2022, when the invasion of Ukraine caused some buyers to avoid buying Russian oil. Oil shipments exported from Russia have become relatively more expensive since the middle of 2023, trading at levels very similar to shipments exported from Iraq. Oil imported from Saudi Arabia, the third-largest supplier to India, is considered the most expensive among these countries. The average price of crude oil exported from Saudi Arabia reached $87.19 per barrel in December 2023.
India formally asked to join world energy agency - IEA head -- The Indian government signed a formal request to join the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the accession process has now started, the head of organisation, Fatih Birol, said on Tuesday.
Philippines recommends criminal charges for ship-tanker owner in 2023 oil spill — The Philippine government on Wednesday recommended criminal charges be filed against owners of a tanker that caused a massive oil spill last year after sinking in rough waters off the central Philippines. The leak from the MT Princess Empress was one of the worst environmental disasters to strike the country in recent years, with the clean-up lasting months and imperiling nearly 20,000 local fishermen, officials said. The ship, operated by Philippines-based RDC Reield Marine Services, sank on Feb. 28, 2023, while carrying about 800,000 liters (211,000 gallons) of fuel oil. All 20 crew members were rescued and the tanker was located weeks later at a depth of 400 meters (1,312 feet) off Naujan, a coastal town in Oriental Mindoro province. The spill led to the contamination of vast coastal regions and forced officials to impose a fishing ban in seven coastal towns. It affected nearly 200,000 people and threatened marine life in the southern Luzon and western Visayas regions. In a statement released Wednesday, the Department of Justice said the prosecutors’ panel had recommended indicting corporate officers of the MT Princess Empress, personnel of the Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA), and one private individual “over multiple counts of falsification of private documents, use of falsified documents and multiple counts of falsification of public documents. “Following a comprehensive evaluation of affidavits and evidence, the panel of DOJ prosecutors uncovered irregularities in certain documents related to the construction and certificate of public convenience of MT Princess Empress,” the statement said. Justice Secretary Jesus Crispin Remulla told reporters that negligence could not be used as an excuse to destroy the environment and livelihood of people. “It is important to be diligent on land and on our waters,” he said. Meanwhile, Sonia Malaluan, chief of MARINA, offered to assist investigators. “I am not aware of such a recommendation nor have I received any communication on this. But, if it is true and should the DOJ find prima facie evidence that warrants filing of the case, as Administrator of MARINA, I can assure our full cooperation,” Malaluan said.
Saudi energy minister pins Aramco's oil capacity halt on green transition -- Saudi’s state-controlled oil giant Aramco suspended its capacity expansion plans because of the green transition, Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman said Monday, stressing that the future of energy security lies with renewables. “I think we postponed this [Aramco capacity] investment simply because … we’re transitioning. And transitioning means that even our oil company, which used to be an oil company, became a hydrocarbon company. Now it’s becoming an energy company,” the Saudi prince said during a question and answer panel at the International Petroleum Technology Conference in Dhahran, noting that Aramco has investments in oil, gas, petrochemicals and renewables. On Jan. 30, the Saudi energy ministry surprised the markets with a directive instructing the Saudi majority-owned Aramco, which went public in 2019, to stop plans to increase its maximum crude production capacity from 12 million barrels per day to 13 million barrels per day by 2027. The ministry did not disclose the reason behind its decision at the time, sparking questions over potential Saudi concerns over the future of oil demand amid a progressing energy transition. The Saudi energy minister on Monday qualified the decision was not made hastily and was the product of a continuous review of market conditions. “We are in [a] continuous mode of reviewing and reviewing and reviewing, simply because you have to view the realities [of the market],” he said. Saudi Arabia’s directive for Aramco was ‘prudent,’ oil and gas consultancy says Oil prices have spasmed through waves of volatility in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, weighed by lower-than-expected recoveries in Chinese demand and inflationary pressures. The global movement to decarbonize and stave off a climate crisis has redirected energy companies away from long-term fossil fuel projects in favor of greener investment pastures — and may redefine the outlook for energy security, Abdulaziz bin Salman signaled on Monday. “Energy security in the 70s, and 80s and 90s was more dependent on oil. Now, you get what happened last year … It was gas. The future problem on energy security, it will not be oil. It will be renewables. And the materials, and the mines,” he stressed, noting that there is still a “huge cushion” of spare capacity available in the event of an emergency shortage. Previously, such supply shocks have struck by way of sanctions or attacks against oil infrastructure worldwide. “Why should we be the last country to hold energy capacity, or emergency capacity, when it is not appreciated? And when it is not recognized?” the Saudi energy minister said. “Energy security is not just the responsibility of Saudi Arabia. It’s the responsibility of all energy producers and energy ministries,” Notably, spare capacity has also long served as a diplomatic instrument in the Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, shaping the odds of victory in the fleeting one-month price war between Riyadh and Moscow in 2020. Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies have long championed a combined energy transition strategy that utilizes fossil fuel resources until such a time that renewable supplies are available to fully cover global requirements, downplaying concerns over markets imminently hitting peak old demand. The stance stands in staunch contrast to that of the International Energy Agency, which in a landmark report of 2021 advocated against further investment in new fossil fuel supply projects, if humanity is to combat the climate crisis. Yet Middle East countries have increasingly attempted to reconcile their image as stalwart fossil fuel producers with their energy transition ambitions, with key OPEC producer the United Arab Emirates hosting last year’s U.N. climate-geared Conference of the Parties (COP). The world’s largest crude exporter, Saudi Arabia aims to decarbonize by 2060, with Saudi Aramco targeting to reach operational net-zero emissions by 2050. Steered by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 plan, the kingdom has also been grappling with diversifying its economy away from overreliance on fossil fuels.
OPEC sticks to oil demand view, sees better economic growth - OPEC stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025 on February 13, and raised its economic growth forecasts for both years saying there was further upside potential. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month. A further boost to economic growth could give additional tailwind to oil demand. OPEC's 2024 demand growth forecast is already higher than that of the International Energy Agency, although the wider OPEC+ alliance is still cutting output to support the market. OPEC said a "positive trend" for economic growth was expected to extend into the first half of 2024 and raised its economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 percentage points. "Global economic growth remains robust," OPEC said in the report. "Further upside potential could materialise in all major OECD and non-OECD economies." Oil prices have found support in 2024 from conflict in West Asia and supply outages, although concerns about continued high interest rates have weighed. Brent crude on Feb. 13 was trading around $82 a barrel, up 0.5% OPEC, IEA clash over demand outlook For this year, OPEC's expectation of oil demand growth is much more than the expansion of 1.24 million bpd so far forecast by the IEA. The IEA, which represents industrialised countries, is scheduled to update its forecasts on Feb. 15. OPEC and the IEA have clashed in recent years over issues such as long-term demand and the need for investment in new supply. The IEA sees oil demand peaking by 2030 as the world shifts to cleaner energy, a view OPEC dismisses. Earlier on Feb. 13, OPEC's Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais told Reuters he believed OPEC's long-term demand outlook, which looks to 2045 and sees no peak in demand, is robust. OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut for the first quarter took effect last month. The OPEC report also said that OPEC oil production fell by 350,000 bpd in January as a new round of voluntary output cuts by the OPEC+ alliance for the first quarter took effect.
OPEC+ Oil-Cut Laggards Pledge Compliance With Targets - Iraq and Kazakhstan pledged compliance with new OPEC+ oil targets after failing to fully cut production as promised last month. The OPEC+ alliance, which is led by Saudi Arabia, agreed to slash production during the first quarter to avert a global oil surplus and shore up prices. While several countries appear to have complied, Baghdad and Astana were once again delinquent. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry conceded it had pumped above its limits in January and vowed to “compensate for the overproduced volumes over the next four months.” It didn’t specify the excess produced. Its counterpart in Iraq released a slightly more nuanced statement, promising to review external estimates of its production and compensate for any excess, also over a four-month period. The nation has in the past disputed OPEC’s assessments of its output. Iraq issued its statement following a visit to Baghdad from Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman. Data compiled by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries indicate that Iraq pumped 4.19 million barrels a day in January, or 190,000 above its limit. But Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Monday that the country is producing no more than its quota of 4 million a day. The excess production comes at an awkward moment for OPEC+ alliance as it seeks to balance global markets against slowing demand growth and booming supply from the Americas. Crude prices are holding near $80 a barrel, a little too low for some member governments. “There’s a little bit of fatigue kicking in” among OPEC+ members, “particularly given a rise in production from alternative producers outside the group,” said Ayham Kamel, head of Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group consultancy. Straying from their limits isn’t an unfamiliar position for either Kazakhstan or Iraq. Baghdad has often chafed against output quotas since the creation of OPEC+ more than seven years ago, as it seeks maximum revenues to rebuild a shattered economy. Astana meanwhile has been keen to make use of production capacity additions at oilfields like Kashagan.
Iraq committed to OPEC, will not produce more than 4 mln bpd -minister (Reuters) - Iraq is committed to OPEC decisions and after its second voluntary cut announced in December it is also committed to producing no more than 4 million barrels per day (bpd), oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani told reporters on Monday. Iraq's current crude oil exports range between 3.35 million and 3.4 million bpd, he added. The oil minister said talks with international oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan are making progress towards resolving a dispute which has halted Iraq's northern oil exports. "Resumption of exports from the Kurdistan region is linked to the resumption of production from the fields in the region. Talks with the companies operating in the region are on their way to reach a resolution in the near future," said Abdel-Ghani. Iraq's deputy oil minister for upstream affairs said in November that a resumption of northern crude exports depended on re-negotiating current production-sharing contracts to change them to a profit-sharing model. Turkey halted Iraq's 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of northern exports on March 25 last year after an arbitration ruling by the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) which ordered Ankara to pay Baghdad damages for unauthorised exports between 2014 and 2018.
Oil Retreats as USD Steadies on Low Trading Volumes -- Oil futures closest to expiration on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange nudged lower at the start of a new trading week amid a modestly higher U.S. Dollar Index and subdued trading volumes with most of the Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year as traders continue to monitor the latest developments in the Israel-Gaza conflict. The Israeli military conducted a series of military strikes in Rafah City overnight as part of a larger operation into southern Gaza after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed last week a breakthrough in the cease-fire negotiations. More than 1 million Palestinians are currently taking refuge in southern Gaza, which is raising the risk that a military push could disproportionately affect the civilian population there. Hamas, meanwhile, has indicated that a Rafah offensive would mean the end of hostage negotiations. The military escalation once again injected fresh geopolitical risks for crude flows from the Middle East region that accounts for about a third of the world's oil output. The Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen overnight launched another attack on a commercial vessel passing through the narrow corridor of Bab al-Mandab in the Red Sea. The Houthis identified the vessel as the Star Iris, with maritime shipping trackers saying the vessel is Marshall Islands-flagged and Greek-owned. The Houthis said the attack is a response to Israel's military actions in Gaza and that they are carried out in sympathy with the Palestinian population. The ongoing attacks on the Bab al-Mandab Strait prompted several companies to halt Red Sea voyages and opt for a longer and more expensive route around Africa. Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco's CEO Amin Nasser indicated this morning that the company has ample spare capacity of about 3 million barrels per day (bpd) and always stands ready to raise production if required by the markets. Saudi Arabia's cushion of spare capacity in case of major disruptions to global supplies has so far limited the upside for oil prices. Under the production curtailment deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led allies, Saudi oil production is currently averaging about 9 million bpd, down from its 12 million bpd maximum sustainable capacity. The Saudi government on Jan. 30 ordered state oil company Aramco to halt plans of further expansion and maintain a production capacity of 12 million bpd, 1 million bpd below the target announced in 2020. Monday's move lower in the oil markets comes as trading volumes are subdued across major Asian markets due to the Lunar New Year holidays. Investors' focus this week will be on monthly oil market reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency for further clues on the global supply and demand disposition. Near 7:45 a.m. EST, the U.S. Dollar Index firmed 0.05% against a basket of foreign currencies to near 104.050, pressuring front-month West Texas Intermediate March futures to $75.95, down $0.85 barrel (bbl) in overnight trading. International crude benchmark Brent for April delivery dropped back $0.96 to $81.23 bbl. March RBOB futures slipped $0.0033 to near $2.3368 gallon and March ULSD futures declined to $2.9154 gallon.
The Crude Market Ended Slightly Higher After Traders Took Some Profits Following Last Week's Rally -- The crude market ended slightly higher after traders took some profits following last week’s rally. The oil market erased some of its previous gains amid the news that the Israeli military said on Monday it had conducted a “series of strikes” on southern Gaza that have now "concluded," days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire proposal from Hamas. The market sold off to a low of $75.54 early in the session. However, logistics disruptions in the Red Sea continued on Monday with Yemen-based Houthis saying they had targeted a cargo ship in the Red Sea, which they claimed was American. The crude market bounced off its low and traded to a high of $77.09 by mid-morning. However, the market erased some of those gains and settled in a range from $76.50 to $77.00 during the remainder of the session. The March WTI contract ended the session, up 8 cents at $76.92, while the April Brent contract settled down 19 cents at $82.00. The product markets ended the session mixed, with the heating oil market settling up 5 points at $2.9196 and the RB market settling up 2.78 cents at $2.3673. Saudi Aramco’s CEO, Amin Nasser, said he is not in agreement there will be peak demand. He said Saudi Arabia expects demand for oil of 104 million bpd in 2024 and 105 million bpd in 2025. Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said the country has plenty of spare oil production capacity, after the world's biggest oil exporter announced unexpected plans late last month to scale back its long-term capacity expansion plans and target a maximum sustained production capacity of 12 million bpd. He said that the kingdom had a "huge cushion" of spare oil capacity in case of major disruptions to global supplies caused by conflict or natural disasters. The U.S. EIA said in its monthly Drilling Productivity Report that U.S. oil output from top shale-producing regions will increase in March to its highest in four months. It said production from the top basins will increase by nearly 20,000 bpd to 9.7 million bpd, its highest since December. Oil output in the Permian basin is expected to increase by about 14,000 bpd to 6.1 million bpd, the second highest monthly output on record after November. Production in the Eagle Ford basin is expected to increase to 1.1 million bpd, the highest since September. In the Bakken, output was set to increase to 1.2 million bpd, the highest since December. Iraq’s Oil Minister, Hayan Abdel-Ghani, said the country is committed to OPEC decisions and after its second voluntary cut announced in December it is also committed to producing no more than 4 million bpd. Iraq's current crude oil exports range between 3.35 million and 3.4 million bpd. The oil minister said talks with international oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan are making progress towards resolving a dispute which has halted Iraq's northern oil exports. The UAE Energy Minister, Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei, said the United Arab Emirates is committed to work with partners at OPEC+ to study the oil market and take suitable decisions to guarantee its stability.
Oil price news: oil rises as OPEC demand outlook aids push past technical level - Oil rose after a bullish demand outlook from OPEC helped crude surpass a key technical level that had served as the ceiling of this year’s narrow trading band. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.2 per cent to settle near US$78 a barrel, pushing past its 200-day moving average of about $77.40. With bulls also finding support from OPEC’s projections that global oil demand will continue strong growth this year, the breach above the technical threshold raises the possibility of additional upward momentum. Oil’s gain came against a backdrop of broader risk-off sentiment after U.S. data showed inflation remains elevated, reducing the prospect of imminent interest rate cuts. “A rare day to see crude decouple from equities” said Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth. “Positioning, which has become increasingly important for the direction in crude, was pared down last week,” and “builds in inventories are expected this week and may temper upside.” Embedded Image Earlier today, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ monthly report showed that the group’s new production cuts were only partially delivered in the first month. The broader OPEC+ alliance plans to decide early next month whether to extend their curbs into the second quarter. While oil has advanced this year, it’s yet to break decisively higher. The OPEC cuts, as well as nervousness over the conflict in the Middle East and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, have largely been offset by an uncertain demand outlook and ample output from outside the group. Prices: WTI for March delivery rose 1.2 per cent to settle at $77.87 a barrel in New York. Brent for April settlement advanced 0.9 per cent to settle at $82.77 a barrel. Meanwhile, a chunk of the vast fleet of tankers that Russia uses to deliver its crude is grinding to a halt under the weight of U.S. sanctions, according to ship-by-ship tracking. That’s another sign that tougher measures by Western regulators might be starting to have tangible effects on Moscow. Traders are also parsing the International Energy Agency’s outlook for crude supply and demand. The agency estimates that global consumption will increase by 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels a day in 2024, which will be easily matched by swelling production from the Americas.
Oil prices rise despite stubborn U.S. inflation -- Oil futures rose Tuesday despite stubborn inflation in the U.S. that dragged the stock market lower. The West Texas Intermediate contract for March gained 95 cents, or 1.24%, to settle at $77.87 a barrel. The Brent contract for April settled at $82.77 a barrel, up 77 cents or 0.94%. Oil clung to gains despite inflation rising more than expected in January. The consumer price index increased 3.1% on an annual basis compared with the 2.9% that was expected. The market is no longer banking on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates typically drive economic growth which fuels oil demand. U.S. crude and the global benchmark settled largely flat on Monday after rallying more than 6% last week as the Israel-Hamas war raged on, highlighting an ongoing risk to crude supplies if the conflict spreads further. WTI has struggled to break out of a range of about $68 to $78 a barrel amid uncertainty over war in the Middle East and an unclear supply and demand outlook for the year. WTI and Brent are up about 8.68% and 7.44%, respectively, for the year, however. "Oil prices have been numbed into submission by what has transpired, or not, in the Middle East," "All flow charts of consequence can immediately be undone by an untoward act, missile or sudden peace agreement and crude prices will move $10/barrel," OPEC expects a tight crude market this year with demand forecast to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day, while production outside the cartel is expected to rise by 1.2 million barrels per day. That would imply a supply deficit this year unless OPEC reverses its production cuts. But the head of the International Energy Agency told Bloomberg News that oil markets should remain "comfortable" this year barring more geopolitical turmoil or extreme weather. Consumption will rise by 1.2 to 1.3 million barrels per day but production in the U.S., Brazil, Canada and Guyana will match the demand, IEA chief Fatih Birol told Bloomberg. Oil Prices, Energy News and Analysis Follow today's coverage of oil prices and the latest news on crude oil These oil companies could be the next takeover targets after Diamondback deal Saudi energy minister pins Aramco’s oil capacity halt on green transition Fluence CEO says energy storage leader has record backlog that will push it to profitability JPMorgan says oil could rise to the high $80s by May Enphase CEO says solar industry poised to rebound on falling interest rates, rising utility costs Nextracker CEO says ‘solar is unstoppable’ as market sees ‘unprecedented demand growth’ BP shares rise 5% after British oil giant announces plans to boost shareholder returns Oil market will face supply shortage by end of 2025, Occidental CEO says Exxon beats earnings expectations even as lower oil prices weigh on profits Chevron earnings fall but shareholders see record windfall in 2023 In an attempt to contain the Mideast conflict, President Joe Biden dispatched CIA Director William Burns to Cairo for talks on a temporary cease-fire in Gaza in exchange for Hamas releasing hostages and Israel freeing Palestinian prisoners. Burns' arrival in the Middle East comes as the push for a truce faltered last week after Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu rejected Hamas' proposed terms for a pause in the fighting. Netanyahu has vowed to press on with Israel's offensive in Gaza and push into the southern city of Rafah on Egypt's border, raising tensions with Cairo. The Israel-Hamas war has pulled the U.S. and Iran closer to a direct confrontation, one which geopolitical and oil market analysts worry will limit supplies in the event of any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI Drops After Huge Crude Build, US Production Back At Record Highs -Oil prices extended gains overnight after API reported big product draws (which offset a large crude build) and on geopolitical concerns rising once more after Israel launched an extensive wave of attacks in Lebanon, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Daniel Hagari said on social media Wednesday. Additionally, OPEC’s top official said Tuesday that global oil demand is set to expand strongly, while a monthly outlook from the group revealed limited compliance with the members’ latest round of supply cuts. “Oil has weathered the financial storm decisively, but copious upside potential might be too much of an ask,” Will the official data confirm API's major draws and builds? API
- Crude +8.5mm (+2.8mm exp)
- Cushing +512k
- Gasoline -7.2mm (-1.0mm exp) - biggest draw since Sept 2021
- Distillates -4.0mm (-2.2mm exp) - biggest draw since May 2023
DOE
- Crude +12mm (+2.8mm exp)
- Cushing +720k
- Gasoline -3.7mm (-1.0mm exp)
- Distillates -1.9mm (-2.2mm exp)
The official data more than confirm the huge crude inventory build (over 12mm barrels) but the product draws were smaller than API reported. Cushing saw a rise in stocks for the first tin 6 weeks...The Biden administration added 746k barrels to the SPR last week...US crude production was flat at record highs 13.3mm b/d... WTI was hovering around $78.25 ahead of the print (off the highs of the day) and extended the decline after...
Increasing U.S. Inventories Weighed on Market Sentiment -The oil market posted an inside trading day on Wednesday as it held on to Tuesday's gains on a strong demand growth forecast from OPEC and later sold off as increasing U.S. crude inventories weighed on market sentiment. The oil market traded mostly sideways and rallied higher early in the session to a high of $78.76, as it remained well supported by the OPEC forecast of global oil demand increasing by 2.25 million bpd in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. However, the market sold off sharply following the release of the EIA’s petroleum stocks report, which showed a larger than expected build in crude stocks of over 12 million barrels on the week. The market breached its previous low of $76.87 as it extended its losses to over a $1.20 and posted a low of $76.61 ahead of the close. The March WTI contract ended the session down $1.23 at $76.64 and continued to trade lower, posting a new low of $76.38 in the post settlement period. Meanwhile, the April Brent contract settled down $1.17 at $81.60. The product markets also ended the day lower, with the heating oil market settling down 8.58 cents at $2.8101 and the RB market settling down 7.77 cents at $2.3169. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil stocks increased in the week ending February 9th while gasoline and distillate inventories fell as refining dropped to the lowest levels since December 2022. Crude inventories increased by 12.0 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels in the week to February 9th. Refinery crude runs last week fell by 298,000 barrels per day to 14.54 million bpd and refinery utilization rates fell by 1.8 percentage points to 80.6% of total capacity. Refinery rates in the Midwest fell by 12 percentage points in the past week to 83.1%, also the lowest since December 2022.Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani told Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in a meeting on Wednesday that it was important for the two countries to align their views to maintain stability in the oil market. A statement from the office of Iraqi premier also said he welcomed the entry of Saudi companies into Iraq and that he discussed expanding economic cooperation with Saudi Arabia.S&P Global Commodities at Sea continues to report that no diesel or gasoil cargoes have been loaded in India for shipment to Europe since January 26th, as key supplier Reliance has been shipping cargoes eastward instead to avoid the problems in the Red Sea.Iraq’s Oil Ministry said Iraq will review its oil production and address any excess output above its OPEC+ voluntary cuts in the coming four months, if found. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said the country will compensate for its oil overproduction in January within the next four months in line with its OPEC+ commitments.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.9 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 16th, increasing available refining capacity by 9,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1.4 million bpd in the week ending February 23rd.
Oil falls by more than $1/bbl on US crude build, security threat worries (Reuters) - Oil futures sank by $1 a barrel on Wednesday as surging U.S. crude inventories pushed down prices and a possible security threat to the U.S. that might dampen oil demand in the world's largest economy. Brent crude futures settled at $81.60 a barrel, shedding, $1.17, or 1.4%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $76.64 a barrel, losing $1.23, or a 1.6%. U.S. crude inventories jumped by 12 million barrels to 439.5 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.6 million-barrel rise as refining dropped to its lowest levels since December 2022. "The refinery utilization rate is a pseudo disaster, down four to five weeks in a row at the end of winter" as refiners have kept activity slow even after emerging from a deep freeze that hampered operations last month. Refinery crude runs last week fell by 298,000 barrels per day to 14.5 million bpd and refinery utilization rates decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 80.6% of total capacity, both the lowest levels since Winter Storm Elliott similarly knocked scores of refineries offline in December 2022.Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress intelligence chair warned of a 'serious national security threat', without providing further details, scaring some oil investors."At the risk of sounding flip, war and/or terror events outside the oil producing regions are bearish for oil prices due to the expected hit to demand," Prices drew some support from a monthly report on Tuesday from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) that said global oil demand will rise by 2.25 million bpd in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month. In other OPEC news, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani held a meeting with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, in which he highlighted the importance of coordination between the two countries to maintain stability in oil markets. Kazakhstan said it will compensate in coming months for its oil overproduction in January, meeting its commitment to OPEC+ production cuts. Geopolitical factors also influenced oil markets, including conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine and the growing view that U.S. interest rate cuts will start later than previously expected. "Currently events around Israel and Gaza, together with Ukraine’s war against Russia, weighs more on sentiment than disappointing U.S. inflation data,"
Oil price news: Oil holds drop as IEA casts demand warning, U.S. stocks surge - Oil fell for a second day as the International Energy Agency warned of slowing demand growth after data showed a rise in U.S. crude inventories. Brent declined toward US$81 a barrel after dropping 1.4 per cent on Wednesday. The market could be in surplus all year, the IEA said, citing demand growth that’s losing stream and expanding non-OPEC supplies. That outlook came a day after nationwide crude stockpiles in the U.S. expanded by a greater-than-expected 12 million barrels last week, spurring an increase in total oil inventories. “Markets were shocked by the quantum of the increase” in crude inventories, said Han Zhong Liang, investment strategist at Standard Chartered Plc. “We expect the oil market to remain largely balanced in 2024” with prices likely to hold around current levels for now, he said. Crude has failed to break out of a $10-a-barrel range this year, with tensions in the Middle East and efforts by OPEC+ to curb production countered by robust supplies from drillers outside the cartel and concerns global demand growth will slow over 2024. Expectations that U.S. interest rates could remain higher for longer as inflation persists have also been a headwind. Still, market metrics continue to signal tight conditions, with timespreads for both major benchmarks holding in a bullish, backwardated structure despite having come off slightly. Refiners’ profits from making fuels like diesel and gasoline also remain elevated. Prices: Brent for April settlement fell 0.6 per cent to $81.10 a barrel at 10:19 a.m. in London. WTI for March delivery declined 0.7 per cent to $76.11 a barrel.
Oil Futures Advance as US Dollar Weakens on Slowing Retail Sales - Oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closest to expiration and the Brent contract on the Intercontinental Exchange settled higher Thursday, reversing early losses following the release of January U.S. retail sales data that showed consumers spent less than expected last month, pressuring the U.S. dollar. U.S. Department of Commerce's Census Bureau reported a 0.8% monthly decline in U.S. retail sales with monthly sales of $700.3 billion, more than an expected 0.1% dip, while revising December's monthly sales increase lower to 0.4%. Monthly sales declines were reported in furniture, home furnishing and building materials, which align with limited home sales, and electronics following the Christmas holiday. Retail sales at gas stations fell a sharp 7.5% in January, which aligns with a decline in gasoline demand from December. Data from the Energy Information Administration shows gasoline supplied to the U.S. market averaged 8.1545 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, down 529,000 bpd, or 6.1%, from December. The U.S. dollar weakened on the retail sales report, with the dollar index falling 0.4% to a 104.2 settlement against a basket of foreign currencies. On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index traded at a 104.875 three-month high. Selling in the dollar was spurred, in part, by renewed sentiment for rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to begin in June which had weakened following Tuesday's hotter-than-expected inflation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing the consumer price index increased a more-than-expected 0.3% in January. There remains a low probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce the federal funds rate at its March meeting, and a 42% probability for a rate cut in May, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The FedWatch Tool finds an 80% probability of a rate cut in June. NYMEX March West Texas Intermediate futures settled $1.39 higher at $78.03 barrels (bbl), widening its premium against April delivery to $0.44 ahead of contract expiration on Feb. 20. ICE April Brent futures ended Thursday's session $1.26 higher at $82.86 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures firmed $0.0014 to $2.3183 gallon, retreating from Tuesday's $2.4134 19-week high on the spot continuous chart. March ULSD futures settled $0.0136 higher at $2.8237 gallon, the first gain this week. The market reaction to the retail sales report countered a bearish outlook by the International Energy Agency released early Thursday, with the Paris-based agency forecasting world oil consumption to grow annually by 1.2 million bpd this year, down from a 2.3 million bpd annual growth rate in 2023. "Global oil demand growth is losing momentum, with annual gains easing from 2.8 mb/d in 3Q23 to 1.8mb/d in 4Q23," said IEA in its monthly Oil Market Report. "A sharp drop in China underpinned an 830 kb/d decline in global oil demand to 102.1 mb/d in the last quarter of 2023."
Oil settles up, records weekly gain on Middle East tensions (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Friday as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East more than offset a forecast from the International Energy Agency for slowing demand. Brent crude futures settled up 61 cents, or 0.74% at $83.47 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled $1.16, or 1.49%, higher at $79.19 with the nearby March contract expiring on Tuesday. The April contract rose 87 cents to $78.46. For the week, Brent gained more than 1% and the U.S. benchmark rose about 3%. The growing risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East supported crude prices. On Thursday, Hezbollah said it fired dozens of rockets at a northern Israeli town in a "preliminary response" to the killing of 10 civilians in southern Lebanon, the deadliest day for Lebanese civilians in four months of cross-border hostilities. The oil market's reaction to news from the Middle East was moderate. "The market sees oil still flowing and disruptions have been small," Gaza's largest functioning hospital was under siege in Israel's war with Islamist group Hamas, as warplanes struck Rafah, the last refuge for Palestinians in the enclave, officials said.Threats persisted in the Red Sea after a missile fired from Yemen struck an India-bound tanker carrying crude oil. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in January amid strong gains in the costs of services, which could amplify inflation worries. Still, a slump in retail sales prompted hopes the Fed will soon start cutting rates, which could support oil demand. "Hopes for U.S. rate cuts provided support on Thursday, but investors are now adjusting their positions ahead of a long (holiday) weekend in the U.S.," On Thursday, the IEA said global oil demand growth was losing momentum and trimmed its 2024 growth forecast. The agency expects global oil demand growth to decelerate to 1.22 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, about half of the growth seen last year, in part due to a sharp slowdown in Chinese consumption. It had previously forecast 2024 demand growth of 1.24 million bpd. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expects oil use to keep rising for the next two decades. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs in operation for the second time in three weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.
Oil Settles at Highest Price This Year | Rigzone -- Oil closed at its highest settling price this year as increasing tensions in the Middle East outweighed hotter-than-expected US inflation data that’s damping the prospect of interest rate cuts. West Texas Intermediate rose above $79 a barrel after Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said the group will escalate its fight with Israel, heightening risks in a region that accounts for about a third of the world’s oil output. Meanwhile, wider markets struck a more cautious tone as inflation figures spurred bets that the Federal Reserve will be in no rush to cut interest rates. Apart from the conflict, the fundamental outlook for crude remains mixed. The International Energy Agency said this week that oil markets could be in surplus all year as global demand growth loses steam, while OPEC sees more robust consumption and the cartel and its allies are implementing supply cuts to buttress prices. Crude is up more than 10% this year, near the top of the range it has traded in since early November. “Oil prices have been quite choppy this week, partly because of the dollar strength holding it back, after last week’s sizeable rally,” Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com, said in a note to clients. “All told, I think risks are skewed to the upside for oil, as there not many negative influences to impact prices.” In the Middle East, exchanges of fire between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel intensified in a further escalation that’s raising alarm of a wider war. Security in the Red Sea continues deteriorate as swaths of the merchant fleet have been avoiding the waterway since attacks by the Houthis began in mid-November. Meanwhile, Russia almost reached its target for voluntary supply reductions for the first time since making the pledge last year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on official data for January. Elsewhere, Iraq and Kazakhstan have pledged compliance with their targets after failing to fully cut production as promised last month. WTI for March rose $1.16 to settle at $79.19 a barrel in New York. Brent for April settlement rose 61 cents to settle at $83.47 a barrel.
US seizes weapons shipment headed from Iran to Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen U.S. forces seized an advanced weapons shipment from Iran headed to Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, according to a U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) statement Thursday. U.S. forces found more 200 packages of lethal weapons on a vessel intended to support the Houthis that have been firing missiles in the Red Sea and disrupting international shipments in the region. The U.S. Coast Guard seized unmanned underwater-surface vehicle components, explosives, network equipment, anti-tank missile launcher assemblies, medium-range ballistic missile components and other lethal equipment, according to the Thursday statement. “This is yet another example of Iran’s malign activity in the region,” CENTCOM Commander Gen. Michael Erik Kurilla said in a statement. “Their continued supply of advanced conventional weapons to the Houthis is in direct violation of international law and continues to undermine the safety of international shipping and the free flow of commerce.”The Houthis have been firing missiles and performing drone strikes on commercial ships since last November in an effort to protest Israel’s military operations in Gaza and show solidarity with Palestinians. Due to the onslaught on the shipping vessels, some companies have redirected ships to around the southern tip of Africa, a longer path that costs more. CENTCOM also announced Thursday that U.S. forces downed seven mobile anti-ship missiles, three unmanned aerial vehicles and one drone in the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. The weaponry was destroyed in four strikes that, CENTCOM says, were in defense of the U.S. Navy and commercial ships in the area.
Blasts hit a natural gas pipeline in Iran and an official says it was an act of sabotage - WHIO-TV (AP) — Explosions struck a natural gas pipeline in Iran early on Wednesday, with an official blaming the blasts on a "sabotage and terrorist action" in the country as tensions remain high in the Middle East amid Israel's war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Details were scarce, though the blasts hit a natural gas pipeline running from Iran's western Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province up north to cities on the Caspian Sea. The roughly 1,270-kilometer (790-mile) pipeline begins in Asaluyeh, a hub for Iran's offshore South Pars gas field. Saeed Aghli, the manager of Iran's gas network control center, told Iranian state television that a “sabotage and terrorist” action caused explosions along several areas of the line. There are no known insurgent groups operating in that province, home to the Bakhtiari, a branch of Iran's Lur ethnic group. Aghli did not name any suspects in the blasts.Iran's Oil Minister Javad Owji, also speaking to state TV, compared the attack to a series of mysterious and unclaimed assaults on gas pipelines in 2011 — including around the anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Tehran marked the 45th anniversary of the revolution on Sunday.“The goal that the enemies were pursuing was to cut the gas in the major provinces of the country and it did not happen,” Owji said. “Except for the number of villages that were near the gas transmission lines, no province suffered a cut.” In the past, Arab separatists in southwestern Iran have claimed attacks against oil pipelines. However, attacks elsewhere in Iran against such infrastructure are rare.Since the revolution, Iran has faced low-level separatist unrest from Kurds in the country's northwest, the Baluch in the east and Arabs in the southwest. However, tensions have risen in recent years as Iran faces an economy hobbled by international sanctions over its nuclear program. The country has faced years of mass demonstrations, most recently in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in custody after her arrest allegedly over how she wore her mandatory headscarf.Meanwhile, Israel has carried out attacks in Iran that have predominantly targeted its nuclear program. On Tuesday, the head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog warned that Iran is "not entirely transparent" regarding its atomic program, particularly after an official who once led Tehran's program announced the Islamic Republic has all the pieces for a weapon "in our hands."Tensions over Iran's nuclear program comes as groups that Tehran is arming in the region — Lebanon's militant Hezbollah and Yemen's Houthi rebels — have launched attacks targeting Israel over the war in Gaza. The Houthis continue to attack commercial shipping in the region, sparking repeated airstrikes from the United States and the United Kingdom.
Blasts hit a natural gas pipeline in Iran and an official says it was an act of sabotage - (AP) — Explosions struck a natural gas pipeline in Iran early on Wednesday, with an official blaming the blasts on a “sabotage and terrorist action” in the country as tensions remain high in the Middle East amid Israel's war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Details were scarce, though the blasts hit a natural gas pipeline running from Iran's western Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province up north to cities on the Caspian Sea. The roughly 1,270-kilometer (790-mile) pipeline begins in Asaluyeh, a hub for Iran's offshore South Pars gas field. Saeed Aghli, the manager of Iran's gas network control center, told Iranian state television that a “sabotage and terrorist” action caused explosions along several areas of the line. There are no known insurgent groups operating in that province, home to the Bakhtiari, a branch of Iran's Lur ethnic group. Aghli did not name any suspects in the blasts. Iran's Oil Minister Javad Owji, also speaking to state TV, compared the attack to a series of mysterious and unclaimed assaults on gas pipelines in 2011 — including around the anniversary of Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution. Tehran marked the 45th anniversary of the revolution on Sunday. “The goal that the enemies were pursuing was to cut the gas in the major provinces of the country and it did not happen,” Owji said. “Except for the number of villages that were near the gas transmission lines, no province suffered a cut.” In the past, Arab separatists in southwestern Iran have claimed attacks against oil pipelines. However, attacks elsewhere in Iran against such infrastructure are rare. Since the revolution, Iran has faced low-level separatist unrest from Kurds in the country's northwest, the Baluch in the east and Arabs in the southwest. However, tensions have risen in recent years as Iran faces an economy hobbled by international sanctions over its nuclear program. The country has faced years of mass demonstrations, most recently in 2022 over the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in custody after her arrest allegedly over how she wore her mandatory headscarf. Meanwhile, Israel has carried out attacks in Iran that have predominantly targeted its nuclear program. On Tuesday, the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog warned that Iran is “not entirely transparent” regarding its atomic program, particularly after an official who once led Tehran’s program announced the Islamic Republic has all the pieces for a weapon “in our hands.” Tensions over Iran's nuclear program comes as groups that Tehran is arming in the region — Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels — have launched attacks targeting Israel over the war in Gaza. The Houthis continue to attack commercial shipping in the region, sparking repeated airstrikes from the United States and the United Kingdom.
Iran condemns ‘terrorist’ attack on gas pipelines An Iranian government official has blamed “terrorism and sabotage” for twin explosions on gas pipelines overnight. While there are few details about the blasts, one occurred on the mainline gas route running from Iran’s central Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province north to major gas fields in the Caspian Sea, state media reported on Wednesday. The other explosion was reported in the southern province of Fars. The blasts come amid raised tension as Israel’s war in Gaza threatens to spill over across the region. While Tehran has not specified who it suspects, it has linked other such incidents to Israel over the years. “This terrorist act of sabotage occurred at 1am (21:30 GMT) on Wednesday morning in the network of national gas transmission pipelines in two regions of the country,” oil minister Javad Owji told state TV. Starting in Asaluyeh, a hub for Iran’s offshore South Pars gas field, the first pipeline runs 1,270 kilometres (790 miles) to the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. Authorities denied reports that the incident caused gas cuts to industries and offices. “We hope the pipeline will be repaired and will become operational as soon as possible,” Saeed Aghili, the manager of Iran’s gas network control centre, told Iranian state television. In the past, Arab separatists in southwestern Iran have claimed attacks against oil pipelines. But attacks on such infrastructure are rare elsewhere. However, in recent years, tensions have risen as Iran faces an economy hobbled by international sanctions over its nuclear programme. Tehran has also faced rare mass civil unrest, most recently in 2022, over the death of Mahsa Amini following her non-compliance with hijab rules. But Iran has generally blamed agents of Israel for similar acts of alleged sabotage in the past. Israel has carried out attacks in Iran, but has predominantly targeted its nuclear programme. The war on Gaza has worsened relations between the two countries. Iranian-linked groups, like Yemen’s Houthis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, have launched attacks on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea in what they say is intended as defence of Palestinians. On Tuesday, the head of the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog warned that Iran is “not entirely transparent” regarding its atomic programme.
New York Times: Israel Behind Attacks on Major Gas Pipelines in Iran - Israel carried out covert attacks on two major natural gas pipelines inside Iran this week, disrupting the flow of heat and cooking gas to provinces with millions of people, according to two Western officials and an Iranian military strategist. They said the gas pipeline attacks by Israel required deep knowledge of Iran’s infrastructure and careful coordination, especially since two pipelines were hit in multiple locations at the same time, according to the New York Times. The Western officials said Israel also caused a separate blast on Thursday inside a chemical factory on the outskirts of Tehran that rattled a neighborhood and sent plumes of smoke and fire into the air. But local officials said the factory explosion, which took place on Thursday, stemmed from an accident in the factory’s fuel tank. The strikes represent a notable shift in the shadow war that Israel and Iran have been waging by air, land, sea, and cyberattack for years. Israel has long targeted military and nuclear sites inside Iran — and assassinated Iranian nuclear scientists and commanders, both inside and outside of the country. Israel has also waged cyberattacks to disable servers belonging to the oil ministry, causing turmoil at gas stations nationwide. But blowing up part of the country’s energy infrastructure marked an escalation in the covert war and appeared to open a new frontier, officials and analysts said. According to a report from the Iranian News Agency, an explosion described as "sabotage" rattled the Burojen-Shahrekot gas pipeline in the Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces of southwest Iran early last Wednesday. There were no reported casualties from the incident. Subsequently, the CEO of the Gas Company in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Governorate announced the resumption of gas transmission along the affected line near the city of Burojen. “The enemy’s plan was to completely disrupt the flow of gas in winter to several main cities and provinces in our country,” Iran’s oil minister, Javad Owji, told Iranian media on Friday. Mr. Owji, who had previously referred to the blasts as “sabotage and terrorist attacks,” stopped short of publicly blaming Israel or any other culprit. But he said that the goal of the attack was to damage Iran’s energy infrastructure and stir domestic discontent.
Netanyahu Rejects Hostage Deal Deal Drawn Up By Mossad, Shin Bet, and IDF - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected an outline for a potential hostage deal with Hamas that was drawn up by Israel’s Mossad spy agency, the Shin Bet security agency, and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).According to The Times of Israel, the proposal was put together by Mossad chief David Barnea, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, and Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon, an IDF officer in charge of intelligence efforts to find Israeli hostages in Gaza.Details of the outline are unclear, but it was likely a response to Hamas’s recent counteroffer for a 135-day truce to facilitate the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners and a permanent ceasefire.The proposal was discussed with Netanyahu several times, including during a prepatory meeting for hostage deal talks in Egypt that were held on Tuesday and attended by Barnea, CIA chief William Burns, Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, and Egyptian officials.The Times report said Netanyahu declined to present the new outline for a hostage deal at the talks and told Barnea to “only listen” and not put forward any new ideas. Netanyahu publicly rejected Hamas’s latest offer and said “total victory” was the only option for Israel, and he is now preparing an invasion of Rafah.According to President Biden, the deal that’s on the table involves a six-week truce, but it’s unclear if Hamas is receptive to the idea. A Hamas official speaking to AFP signaled the Palestinian group was still looking for a permanent ceasefire, saying Hamas was awaiting the outcome of the Cairo talks and was “open to discussing any initiative that achieves an end to aggression and war.”
Netanyahu Pulls Out Of Talks Over 'Delusional' Hamas Demands, Hostage Families StunnedIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel has pulled out of talk with Hamas, and repeated the complaint that Hamas' conditions for a possible ceasefire are "delusional". "Israel is holding out for Hamas to change its position before taking any further role in negotiations, the PM’s office said Wednesday," Bloomberg reports. Prior talks in Cairo involving the CIA's Burns and President Sisi, via the Egyptian presidential Facebook page The official statement reads: "Netanyahu insists that Israel will not give in to Hamas’s delusional demands." His office stipulated that "A change in Hamas’s positions will allow the negotiations to advance." Hamas has insisted that for a deal to proceed, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would have to completely withdraw from the Gaza Strip first. The Israeli side has rejected the demand as a non-starter. The Israeli delegation under Mossad intelligence chief David Barnea returned to Israel from talks in Egypt on Tuesday. This new development means Netanyahu is declaring he's 'done' with the talks. A group representing families of the remaining hostages has said it is "stunned" by Netanyahu's pullout from negotiations. The Israeli PM reportedly didn't want to send representatives to Cairo at all, but Israeli media says the Biden administration brought immense pressure to bear for him to do so. Families of the hostages have also accused Netanyahu of actively 'thwarting' the negotiations, alleging he has an interest in keeping the war going for the sake of his own political survival. Part of the controversy too is that the mainstay of the peace plan was drawn up by Israel’s own Mossad spy agency, the Shin Bet security agency, and the IDF. The New York Times on Wednesday says talks will now go to a "lower level" - but at the moment the reality seems that only the outside major powers serving as mediators are interested in pushing Hamas and Israel to the table, while the warring parties themselves aren't interested: Negotiations in Cairo over a possible agreement to pause the fighting in Gaza have been extended for another three days, according to an Egyptian official briefed on the talks, after a first day of high-level negotiations on Tuesday ended without an agreement. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, said the tenor of the talks was positive. The talks over the next three days will involve lower-level officials, who will continue discussing a new framework for a deal, one that would ensure a certain number of hostages would be released and that the fighting would be halted for a certain number of weeks, a U.S. official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss diplomatic talks. In the meantime, the assault on the southern city of Rafah, packed with some one million refugees, continues to escalate:
Netanyahu Doubles Down on Plans to Attack Rafah Despite Growing Criticism - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday doubled down on his vow to attack the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah despite growing criticism of the plan.It’s estimated that about 1.5 million Palestinians are packed into Rafah, which has a pre-war population of 275,000. Most of the people sheltering in the city are living on the streets in tents, and many have been displaced multiple times since Israel unleashed its onslaught.On Friday, Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to draw up an evacuation plan for Rafah, but it’s unclear where the Palestinians sheltering there will go. A few hours after Netanyahu said he ordered the plan, Israeli airstrikes hit residential buildings in Rafah, killing 28.Heavy Israeli airstrikes were also reported in Rafah late Sunday into Monday morning, with Al Jazeera reporting at least 50 have been killed so far.Aid groups are warning a full-scale Israeli assault on Rafah would be a “blood bath” due to the concentration of Palestinians. Egypt, which borders Rafah, is threatening to scrap its 1979 peace treaty with Israel if it attacks the city. Cairo strongly opposes anything that could lead to an influx of Palestinian refugees entering its territory.Responding to the criticism, Netanyahu claimed to ABC News that he had no choice. “Those who say that under no circumstances should we enter Rafah are basically saying lose the war, keep Hamas there,” he said. The Israeli leader suggested that Palestinians in Rafah could go to areas to the north that have been “cleared” by the Israeli military, though throughout the past few months, Israel has regularly attacked so-called “safe zones.” Also, on Sunday, President Biden spoke with Netanyahu and said the US would support an attack on Rafah if Israel had a plan to evacuate civilians. The Biden administration has paid lip service to the idea of protecting civilians in Gaza but continues to provide unconditional military aid despite the massive civilian death toll.The latest number from Gaza’s Health Ministry put the deal toll in the Strip since October 7 at 28,176, including over 12,000 children.
Israeli Minister Blocks US Flour Shipments Into Gaza - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is blocking a US-funded flour shipment into Gaza that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously vowed would be allowed into the Strip, Axios reported on Tuesday. Officials said that Netanyahu personally made the commitment to President Biden several weeks ago and that the Israeli war and security cabinets approved the delivery to be made through Israel’s Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza, where Israelis have been protesting against humanitarian aid shipments into Gaza. Smotrich’s office says he blocked the shipment because it’s going to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). Israel recently accused 12 UNRWA employees of participating in the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, but the intelligence dossier the allegations were based on provides no evidence for the claim, according to media outlets that obtained the document. Regardless of the lack of evidence, the US and several other countries suspended funding for UNRWA as hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are facing famine-like conditions. Philippe Lazzarini, UNRWA’s commissioner general, also admitted he fired the UNRWA employees accused of attacking Israel without evidence. He said an investigation is ongoing and that the employees would be compensated if the allegations were found to be false. Smotrich is still claiming UNRWA is a “central part” of the “Hamas war machine.” His office said he was blocking the shipment in coordination with Netanyahu and claimed it would be able to go through if they found a new delivery mechanism. Any delays in aid shipments could mean death for the Palestinians in Gaza. Palestinians are beginning to starve to death, but the scale of famine-related deaths is unclear at this point as it’s not being properly tracked,according to the American aid group Anera. The aid group said that one of its staffers had heard from a friend in north Gaza who lost their six-year-old son to starvation.“in the tragic circumstances of starvation in Gaza, there’s a compounding issue: many who perish from starvation-related symptoms aren’t accurately documented. Their deaths often get attributed to other physical causes, masking the true toll of starvation,” Anera said in a press release.
Israel's Ben Gvir Says Israeli Military Should Shoot Palestinian Women and Children - Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir said on Sunday that Israeli forces should shoot Palestinian women and children in Gaza if they get too close to the Israeli border.“We cannot have women and children getting close to the border… anyone who gets near must get a bullet [in his head],” Ben-Gvir said during an argument with Israeli Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi about the IDF’s open fire policies, according to The Jerusalem Post.After his comments leaked to the press, Ben Gvir doubled down. In a post on X, the Israeli minister said he “does not stutter and does not intend to apologize. All those who endanger our citizens by getting near the border must be shot. This is what they do in any normal state.”In his role as minister of National Security, Ben Gvir oversees the Israeli police, including the border police. He and Halevi also argued about the IDF cooperating with Israeli police to crack down on protests against humanitarian aid entering Gaza at the Kerem Shalom border crossing.“You cannot contact the Israel Police commissioner directly,” Ben-Gvir told Halevi during what the Post described as a screaming match. “If you want him, you need to go through me.”The Israeli police under Ben Gvir had done nothing to stop the protests, which aim to block the aid into Gaza, until the military stepped in. Ben Gvir, who leads the Jewish Power party, and other ministers in Netanyahu’s government, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich oppose allowing aid into the Gaza Strip.
Israel Weaponizes Sympathy And Victimhood by Caitlin Johnstone - There’s a certain particularly toxic personality type which thrives on being hated. They behave in wildly odious and destructive ways, and then when people react to this with hostility they plunge into poor-me victimhood, which they then use to justify more odious and destructive behavior. You may have been unfortunate enough to have encountered such personalities in your own life. They behave atrociously, and then when people react to it they say “See?? I really AM being persecuted!”A Jewish anti-Zionist Israeli named Alon Mizrahi posted an interesting piece on Twitter a few days ago that’s been rattling around in my head ever since, wherein he argues that Israel is actually intentionally generating hatred towards itself in order to shore up political power.Claiming that “Israel and American Jewish organizations took it upon themselves to keep Jews afraid and isolated” in a “strategy of intentional paranoia,” Mizrahi opines that when October 7 hit, “the right wing, nationalistic, paranoid section of the Jewish political spectrum, realized it could be translated into political gold.”“It doesn’t seem like Israel is trying to be hated globally. It is actually what it’s doing,” Mizrahi writes. “It is intentionally airing its cruelty and barbarity so that it will remain closed up to the world, thus guaranteeing the continued rule of the paranoia camp.”“Palestinians are just crash test dummies in this scenario,” he adds. “Their deaths are used to get people angry and Israel hated, so it becomes even more paranoid.” Whether you accept or reject Mizrahi’s perspective, you can’t deny that Israel’s apologists have been seizing on the outrage its actions in Gaza have caused as evidence of anti-semitic persecution. The Anti-Defamation League has started categorizing pro-Palestine rallies as anti-semitic incidents, including rallies organized and attended by Jewish groups, leading to the Israel-friendly mass media reporting a massive spike in “anti-semitism” in the wake of October 7. Common pro-Palestine chants like “From the river to the sea Palestine will be free” have been deceitfully labeled calls for the genocide of Jews, and any criticism of Israel’s actions is met with a deluge of accusations of anti-semitism.Once Israel and its western supporters succeeded in framing any opposition to to the Israeli government as evidence of anti-semitism, it was guaranteed that any time Israel does something evil it will cause a new wave of “anti-semitism” per those standards. This perceived hatred and persecution could then be cited as evidence for why Israel needs to be even more violent, militaristic and tyrannical than it already was, and why its brutal treatment of Palestinians is justified and correct. This in turn could be used by western governments to justify pouring more weapons into Israel and providing military support against its neighbors.In this dynamic, anything Israel does causes more people to hate Israel both in the middle east and around the world, to which Israel responds by tearfully proclaiming “See?? They hate us! We must defend ourselves against their hostilities!”This is not the sort of behavior you would accept from someone in your life, and it shouldn’t be the sort of behavior we accept from nuclear-armed ethnostates. As with any other widespread dysfunction, the key to dismantling this one is to spread awareness of what it is that Israel is doing.
Dutch Court Orders Government to Halt Delivery of F-35 Parts to Israel - A Dutch court ruled on Monday that the Netherlands must halt the export of spare parts for F-35 fighter jets to Israel since they’re likely to be used to kill civilians in Gaza.The Netherlands hosts a warehouse of US-owned F-35 parts and exports them to countries that operate the fighter jets. “The court finds that there is a clear risk that Israel’s F-35 fighter jets might be used in the commission of serious violations of international humanitarian law,” the court said in its ruling.The Dutch government said it would appeal the ruling, which ordered a halt to the exports within seven days. The ruling came as a result of a lawsuit filed against the Netherlands by Oxfam and other human rights organizations.Losing spare parts from the Netherlands is not expected to have an impact on Israel’s military operations since there are other places to source the equipment. But the ruling piles on the growing international pressure against Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians and could lead to similar lawsuits in other countries. Israel’s biggest backer, the United States, has shown no sign that it’s considering limiting military aid despite the international outrage over the slaughter. The White House reaffirmed on Monday that it would continue supporting Israel even if it went ahead with its plans to launch a full-scale attack on the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah, which is packed with an estimated 1.5 million Palestinians.
Tucker Carlson: Moscow ‘so much nicer than any city in my country’ --Pundit Tucker Carlson called Moscow “nicer” than any city in the United States and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin’s governing of the massive world superpower.“And the most radicalizing thing for me in the eight days I spent in Moscow was not just the leader of the country,” Carlson said during a recent interview at the World Government Summit, calling Putin “capable.”“What was very shocking, very disturbing was the city of Moscow, where I’d never been … it was so much nicer than any city in my country,” he said, calling the Russian capital “so much cleaner, and prettier aesthetically — its architecture, its food, its service — than any city in the United States.”Carlson held an exclusive interview with Putin in Russia last week, which the president used to spread propaganda about the ongoing war he is waging on Ukraine and criticize the American government.Carlson, during his remarks at the summit, blasted the U.S. government for what he characterized as rampant crime, out of control inflation and overall failure of government, saying similar decline as occurred in European cities such as London and Paris.When asked if he considers himself anti-American, Carlson said, “No, I am the most pro-American.”
Philippines launches patrols around disputed shoal to protect fishing grounds, food security — The Philippines this month launched coast guard patrols around Scarborough Shoal to safeguard its exclusive economic zone and challenge China, which for 12 years has dominated those waters vital to the Filipino fishing industry, the national security adviser said Friday. Eduardo Año said the regular patrols, which began in early February, were in line with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s goal of achieving food security and making it safe for local fishermen to access prime fishing grounds. The triangle-shaped shoal became the focus of a landmark international court case over disputed waters in the South China Sea after Beijing took control of Scarborough Shoal in 2012. “The Philippine government has taken decisive action to protect the rights and safety of Filipino fishermen in the waters of Bajo De Masinloc,” Año said in a statement, using the local name for the shoal. “The national government has directed the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) and Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) to deploy their vessels for rotational deployment in BDM starting this month,” the security adviser said. Scarborough Shoal, a resource-rich rock claimed by the Philippines, China and Taiwan, lies about 120 nautical miles west of Zambales, a coastal province in the main Philippine island of Luzon. It has served as a traditional fishing ground and a natural shelter for Filipino fishermen against harsh weather at sea, and is considered a vital link to food security for many coastal communities in the Philippines. “These efforts aim to ensure the safety and security of our Filipino fishermen in their traditional fishing grounds. Further, both PCG and BFAR were directed to distribute food packs, groceries and even fuel to support the fishermen in sustaining their activities,” Año said.The announcement came amid China’s intensified aggressiveness in the waters in and around the shoal, which has effectively remained under Beijing’s control since a tense standoff with Manila in 2012. China has kept a permanent presence there with two coast guard ships guarding the mouth of the shoal.
Gen. Prabowo’s electoral victory casts long shadow on Southeast Asia — Prabowo Subianto has claimed a big win in Indonesia’s presidential race, garnering nearly 60% of votes in this week’s general election, as projected through “quick counts” at exit polls. Although the official tally won’t be announced until March, Prabowo’s wide margin of victory against fellow contenders Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, combined with his showing at regional polls across Indonesia, are enough to be confident in the results.Because Indonesia is Southeast Asia’s largest country by population and GDP, elections in this young democracy matter for the development of democracy throughout the region. Like national polls in Myanmar in 2020, Malaysia and the Philippines in 2022, and Thailand in 2023, the administration of the Indonesian election was excellent.Regional electoral officials have ensured the performative aspect of democracy, including the establishment of nationwide polling sites, the registration of parties and candidates, and quick ballot counts. All this has bolstered confidence in the voting process. In the case of Indonesia, some 5.7 million Indonesian election officials ran a smooth, violence-free election, across the archipelago made up of some 17,000 islands.But there are some reasons for concern. In Malaysia and Thailand, there was a period of post-electoral instability caused by the difficulty in forming a government. In the case of the former, there was nearly a hung parliament until the Agong (the King) stepped in.Thailand saw the biggest electoral winner, the Move Forward Party, blocked by the military-appointed Senate from being allowed to form a governing majority. And of course, in Myanmar, the National League of Democracy (NLD) was ousted in a coup d’état before they could seat Parliament, in February 2021.In Indonesia’s case, Prabowo won convincingly in the Feb. 14 election, staving off a run-off round in June. But he will not be inaugurated until October, unless Parliament moves the date up. That means there will be an extended lame duck presidency and Prabowo – not known for his patience – will be champing at the bit. There is a lot of political horse-trading that will go on in Indonesia between now and October, especially as Prabowo’s coalition currently only has some 33% of the seats in the national legislature; his own Gerindra party came in third. He will try to co-opt centrist and conservative Islamic parties in his opponents’ coalitions to cobble together a working majority.
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