week ending Mar 2

Fed's Williams says a debate around three 2024 cuts is reasonable, US PCE due - --

• Fed's Williams (voter) said there is still some ways to go before hitting the 2% inflation target and sees a likely uneven path back to 2% inflation, while he said will let the incoming economic data determine the monetary policy path. Williams said the debate over rate cuts is a sign of progress on lowering inflation and the Fed is likely to cut rates later this year. Furthermore, he saidthree interest rate cuts in 2024 is reasonable for Fed officials to debate and data will drive when the Fed will cut rates.
• Fed's Collins (non-voter) repeated it will likely become appropriate to begin easing policy later this year and recent economic data highlights that progress toward the Fed's goals could continue to be bumpy. Collins added that more time is needed to discern if the economy is sustainably on the path to price stability and a healthy labour market, while she needs to see more evidence the disinflationary process will continue before starting to carefully normalise policy. Furthermore, Collins said it ispremature to say whether the Fed could cut rates in May and sees risks as more balanced between cutting too early and too late.
• US Congressional leaders have reached a deal to avoid a March 2nd partial shutdown by providing a week of temporary funding, whilst providing funding for parts of the government through September 30th, according to Bloomberg. However, the rest of the US government still faces a potential shutdown on March 23rd. It was also reported that GOP. Rep. Hern said the House will vote on a continuing resolution this Thursday.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Housing inflation is what we have to watch -- Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed president, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Goolsbee's thoughts on the latest Core PCE data, why housing inflation is the sector the Federal Reserve needs to pay attention to, and if January's data has changed the monetary policy outlook.

Waller says Fed's mortgage holdings should dwindle - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he'd like to see the central bank's holdings of mortgage-backed securities go to zero. Waller is among more than a half-dozen Fed officials set to speak Friday in speeches or broadcast interviews. Others include Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee. In recent weeks,many policymakers have indicated that interest rates will remain at a 22-year high at least through the Fed's next meeting on March 19-20, with the first cut likely later this year. . Officials are watching to see whether January's surprise jump in consumer prices was a fluke or a roadblock on the way toward lower inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give the view from the top next week in two days of semiannual congressional testimony on monetary policy. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd like to see the central bank's holdings of mortgage-backed securities go to zero. "It is important to see a continued reduction in these holdings," Waller said Friday in prepared remarks at a conference in New York. He also said he'd like a shift in the Fed's holdings toward a larger share of short-term Treasuries. Prior to the financial crisis, about one third of the Fed's Treasury securities holdings were bills, Waller said. Today, these short-term securities comprise less than 5% of their Treasury holdings and 3% of their total securities holdings. Waller is on a panel discussing quantitative tightening — the Fed's process of shrinking its asset portfolio — at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum hosted by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He said it's important for any quantitative easing program to be followed by credible quantitative tightening to avoid inflation arising from a permanent injection of reserves into the banking system. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that it'll likely be appropriate for the central bank to start slowing the pace at which it shrinks its balance sheet as the overnight reverse repo facility drains. The Fed will need to approach decisions around the balance sheet carefully, since it's not clear what level of reserves is enough to meet banks' liquidity needs, she said Friday in prepared remarks at the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. "We'll need to feel our way to it by observing money market spreads and volatility," she said. "To me, the need to feel our way means that when ON RRP balances approach a low level, it will be appropriate to slow the pace of asset runoff. But once the ON RRP is empty, there will be more uncertainty about how much excess liquidity remains." She also repeated that slowing the pace of QT doesn't mean the Fed will stop letting maturing assets roll off altogether. The slower pace could allow the the run off to continue for longer, and will also mitigate the risk of liquidity stress.

Current PCE Inflation: 4.1% -- The Bureau of Economic Analysis released January figures for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) today, including the price index based on that data.News headlines report the year-over-year percent change in the PCE price index: 2.4%. This gives the impression that price inflation is heading towards the Federal Reserve’s supposed target of 2%.But the data is released monthly, and this way of calculating inflation is slightly misleading. As Joseph Salerno warned, This way of calculating the annual inflation rate is backward looking, because the most recent monthly rate is heavily outweighed by the previous eleven months' rates. In contrast, calculating the annual inflation rate by compounding and annualizing the most recent monthly or quarterly rate of change in the CPI gives a better idea of what inflation currently is and how it may be trending. This more accurate calculation reveals an annualized price inflation rate of 4.1%. In December 2023, the PCE index was 121.451; in January 2024, today’s release, it was 121.870. This is a 0.3% month-over-month increase, equivalent to a 4.1% annualized rate. It means that above-target price inflation is still here. Today’s release shows that price inflation still exceeds some data points during the height of price inflation panic, including September 2021 and four months in 2022. This way of calculating price inflation, while still “crude and inaccurate,” is a closer reflection of what households are facing – it’s closer to what “a judicious housewife knows … about price changes as far as they affect her own household”:The pretentious solemnity which statisticians and statistical bureaus display in computing indexes of purchasing power and cost of living is out of place. These index numbers are at best rather crude and inaccurate illustrations of changes which have occurred. In periods of slow alterations in the relation between the supply of and the demand for money they do not convey any information at all. In periods of inflation and consequently of sharp price changes they provide a rough image of events which every individual experiences in his daily life. A judicious housewife knows much more about price changes as far as they affect her own household than the statistical averages can tell.

Q4 GDP Growth Revised Down to 3.2% Annual Rate -- From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Fourth Quarter and Year 2023 (Second Estimate) - Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.9 percent.The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 3.3 percent. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to private inventory investment that was partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending and consumer spending (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a decrease in private inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised up from 2.8% to 3.0%. Residential investment was revised up from 1.1% to 2.9%.

US GDP "Grew" $334 Billion In Q4.... That Growth Cost $834 Billion In Debt - Moments ago, two things happened: Biden's Bureau of Economic Analysis released the first revision of Q4 2023 GDP, a number which is completely irrelevant as it looks at the state of the US economy more than 2 months ago as the calendar is now just weeks away from the start of Q2 2024... and bitcoin soared above $60,000, now less than $10k away from a record high. While it may not be immediately obvious, the two events are linked. Let us explain. First, according to the Biden admin, in Q4 GDP rose 3.2%, a modest drop from the 3.3% reported in the first estimate one month ago, and below the 3.3% consensus estimate. While we already know this, the BEA reported that the increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

• The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors were health care, food services and accommodations, and other services (led by international travel). Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products) as well as recreational goods and vehicles.
• The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods (led by petroleum) and services (led by financial services).
• The increase in state and local government spending reflected increases in both investment (led by structures) and consumption expenditures (led by compensation of employees).

Comparing the first estimate with the second, we find several notable items, the first being that Personal Consumption actually rose more than expected, growing a 3.0% QoQ annualized (vs 2.8% in the first estimate), and contributing 2.0% to the bottom line GDP of 3.21%, up from 1.91% in the original estimate. Another increase was seen in fixed investment which contributed 0.43% to the bottom line, up from the 0.31% originally estimated; finally government also saw its contribution boosted, rising to 0.73%, or about a quarter, of the final GDP. These improvement were offset by a notable drop in the change in private inventories which declined from an addition of 0.07% to a subtraction of -0.27%. Ok, none of this matters: the numbers will be revised again next month but by then all markets will care about will be not so much Q1 GDP but rather Q2 and onward. So very stale.But what does that have to do with the bitcoin spike?Well, a closer look at the data revealed something stunning: a quick look at the increase in nominal GDP, which rose from $27.61 trillion in Q3 to $27.94 trillion in Q4, shows that the US economy increased some $334.5 billion in absolute nominal dollar terms.But where did this growth come from? Why debt of course, and a lot of it. For the answer how much debt, we go to the US Treasury's Debt to the penny website, where we find that debt on Sept 30, 2023 was $33,167,334,044,723.16 and debt on Dec 31, 2023 was$34,001,493,655,565.48. In other words, it cost $834.2 billion in debt during Q3 to grow the US economy by $334.5 billion, or exactly $2.5 in debt for every $1 in GDP "growth."

War Is Bad for You — And the Economy - Joe Biden wants you to believe that spending money on weapons is good for the economy. That tired old myth — regularly repeated by the political leaders of both parties — could help create an even more militarized economy that could threaten our peace and prosperity for decades to come. Any short-term gains from pumping in more arms spending will be more than offset by the long-term damage caused by crowding out new industries and innovations, while vacuuming up funds needed to address other urgent national priorities.The Biden administration’s sales pitch for the purported benefits of military outlays began in earnest last October, when the president gave a rare Oval Office address to promote a $106-billion emergency allocation that included tens of billions of dollars of weaponry for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. MAGA Republicans in Congress had been blocking the funding from going forward and the White House was searching for a new argument to win them over. The president and his advisers settled on an answer that could just as easily have come out of the mouth of Donald Trump: jobs, jobs, jobs. As Joe Biden put it: “We send Ukraine equipment sitting in our stockpiles. And when we use the money allocated by Congress, we use it to replenish our own stores… equipment that defends America and is made in America: Patriot missiles for air defense batteries made in Arizona; artillery shells manufactured in 12 states across the country — in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas; and so much more.” It should be noted that two of the four states he singled out (Arizona and Pennsylvania) are swing states crucial to his reelection bid, while the other two are red states with Republican senators he’s been trying to win over to vote for another round of military aid to Ukraine. Lest you think that Biden’s economic pitch for such aid was a one-off event, Politico reported that, in the wake of his Oval Office speech, administration officials were distributing talking points to members of Congress touting the economic benefits of such aid. Politico dubbed this approach “Bombenomics.” Lobbyists for the administration even handed out a map purporting to show how much money such assistance to Ukraine would distribute to each of the 50 states. And that, by the way, is a tactic companies like Lockheed Martin routinely use to promote the continued funding of costly, flawed weapons systems like the F-35 fighter jet. Still, it should be troubling to see the White House stooping to the same tactics. Members of Congress and the Washington elite continue to argue that the U.S. military is this country’s most effective anti-poverty program. While the pay, benefits, training, and educational funding available to members of that military have certainly helped some of them improve their lot, that’s hardly the full picture. The potential downside of military service puts the value of any financial benefits in grim perspective.Many veterans of America’s disastrous post-9/11 wars, after all, risked their physical and mental health, not to speak of their lives, during their time in the military. After all, 40% of veterans of the Iraq and Afghan wars have reported service-related disabilities. Physical and mental health problems suffered by veterans range from lost limbs to traumatic brain injuries to post-traumatic stress syndrome (PTSD). They have also been at greater risk of homelessness than the population as a whole. Most tragically, four times as many veterans have committed suicide as the number of military personnel killed by enemy forces in any of the U.S. wars of this century. The toll of such disastrous conflicts on veterans is one of many reasons that war should be the exception, not the rule, in U.S. foreign policy.

House conservative demands stall efforts to avert shutdown --Conservatives’ demands for controversial policy additions to spending bills are stalling efforts to fund the government by Friday, nudging the country closer to a partial government shutdown and sparking frustration among lawmakers in both parties. Congressional leaders failed to unveil the long-awaited compromise appropriations bills over the weekend, blowing through a Sunday target date floated last week and, as a result, leaving members wondering about a path forward just days ahead of the looming deadline. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said House Republicans were responsible for the holdup, writing in a letter to colleagues Sunday that conservatives in the lower chamber “need more time to sort themselves out.” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), however, dismissed his “counterproductive rhetoric,” saying that new requests from Democrats had delayed the process. The blame-game preview comes as hard-liners are pressuring Johnson to use the appropriations process to extract policy concessions from Democrats after the Speaker cut two previous spending deals with lawmakers across the aisle, which incensed members of the right-flank. At the same time, Democrats, Senate Republicans and the White House are pushing for a bipartisan deal to keep the lights on in Washington, a message that will ring loud and clear for Johnson on Tuesday when President Biden hosts the top four congressional leaders to discuss government funding. Those dynamics are thrusting the Speaker into a familiar — yet difficult — decision: Cave to conservatives and force a shutdown that would be politically perilous for Republicans, or break from GOP hard-liners and work out a spending deal with Democrats that risks sparking a rebellion on the right.

Senate GOP fears Speaker Johnson headed toward shutdown wreck Senate Republicans are trying to wave their House GOP counterparts away from blundering into a partial government shutdown at week’s end, something that looks increasingly likely given Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) unstable grip on power over a narrow majority. GOP senators warn a shutdown for any reason would be a political loser and imperil their prospects in November. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) delivered a stern message to his House GOP colleagues Monday afternoon, warning them that shutting down the government is not an option. “Shutting down the government is harmful to the country. And it never produces positive outcomes — on policy or politics,” he warned on the Senate floor. Congressional leaders failed to release the text over the weekend for legislation to fund military construction and the departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Energy, Transportation and Housing and Urban Affairs, setting the stage for a partial government shutdown after March 1. Senate Republicans expressed frustrations Monday afternoon over the failure to reach an agreement, noting that the funding levels of the bill have already been worked out and that a standoff over controversial policy riders is gumming up the process. McConnell warned that if lawmakers fail to meet Friday’s deadline, “the country would face needless disruptions” in those areas. He added that funding the government “will require that everyone rows in the same direction: toward clean appropriations and away from poison pills.” McConnell’s comments appeared directed at the Speaker and House conservatives who are insisting on adding controversial policy riders to the government funding package, according to Senate aides familiar with the negotiations. The House Freedom Caucus last week submitted to Johnson a list of more than 20 policy riders they want to add to the annual spending bills, including a proposal to zero out Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’s salary, block the Pentagon’s ability to reimburse the travel costs of service members who obtain abortions and defund elements of the Biden administration’s climate agenda. Members of McConnell’s leadership team echoed his warning that stumbling into a government shutdown would boomerang on Republicans eight months before Election Day, which will decide control of the White House, Senate and House.

Congress appears likely to exclude PBMs, other health priorities from spending package - Congress is unlikely to include many major health priorities in the next government funding package, according to multiple sources. It is increasingly likely that only a handful of programs facing imminent deadlines could be included in legislation needed to fund the government by March 8, such as community health center funding, a reversal of Medicaid cuts to hospitals serving low-income and uninsured patients, and at least a partial rollback of Medicare physician payment cuts. A reauthorization of a federal pandemic preparedness program and a sweeping bill to address opioid and substance use disorder are among the policies likely to be left on the cutting room floor, sources said. The authorizations for those bills expired at the end of September. Potential reforms to the business practices of pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) also seem unlikely to make it into the funding package, though sources stressed no final decisions have been made. PBM reform has been a bipartisan priority for both chambers, including legislation that advanced through the Senate Finance Committee and Senate Health Committee. But competing priorities in the House and Senate have led to complications, and the two sides have been unable to hammer out any agreement. A partial government shutdown is looming as congressional negotiators failed to come to an agreement this past weekend on the first four appropriations bills set to expire on March 1, including legislation to fund the Food and Drug Administration. Funding for other agencies is set to expire March 8. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is facing pressure from his right flank to hold the line for lower spending in ongoing bipartisan talks and to push for a laundry list of policy riders related to abortion, diversity initiatives, border issues and other GOP priorities.

Biden presses House Speaker for Ukraine war funding with congressional leaders at budget impasse - US President Biden met with the four top congressional leaders at the White House on Tuesday to discuss the budget impasse that will result in a partial government shutdown beginning 12:01 a.m. Saturday if it is not resolved in the coming days. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-New York) and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) met with Biden in the Oval Office to review the issues involved in getting a deal for yet another continuing resolution to temporarily extend funding for the federal government. Speaking to the press before the meeting, Biden made it clear that the primary objective of the White House is to secure billions in additional funding for the US-NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. Those dollars—as well as billions to finance Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and more to build up the military of Taiwan and other Asian allies of the US against China, and additional billions to further militarize America’s southern border and detain or deport asylum seekers—are included in the administration’s supplemental spending request, which is separate from the legislation required to keep the federal government running. After stating that preventing a government shutdown was “an important problem,” Biden moved quickly to the topic of war funding, saying, “I hope we get to speak to that a little bit. And I think the consequences of inaction every day in Ukraine are dire.” He added that he had been speaking to “our G7 partners,” and they are “very concerned.” Biden then moved on to funding for Israel’s war in Gaza, saying, “in terms of the supplemental, we need to deal with the Israeli portion.” The president continued, “And we have to replenish the air defenses for Israel, and we have to work on making sure they don’t face the threat from … not just from Hamas, but from Iran.” Other than vague references to the fact that a partial government shutdown by the weekend would “damage the economy significantly,” Biden had nothing to say about the dire impact a shutdown would have on critical government services, federal employees and those who depend on government programs for basic needs. A shutdown beginning on Saturday would impact four appropriations areas: Agriculture, Rural Development, and the Food and Drug Administration; Energy and Water Development; Military Construction and Veterans Affairs; and Transportation, Housing and Urban Development. If legislation to fund the departments is not passed before midnight Friday, a continuing resolution would have to be passed to keep the departments open. The remaining eight appropriations areas face a shutdown one week later, at 12:01 a.m. on March 9 if no agreement is in place by that deadline. The budget impasse has centered around demands by a group of far-right House Republicans to incorporate in any continuing resolution draconian social spending cuts and right-wing policy mandates on such things as reproductive rights that the Democrats and the White House could not support. Members of the House Freedom Caucus and political provocateurs, such as QAnon fascist Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia) have threatened to seek the ouster of Johnson as House Speaker if he agrees to a temporary budget deal with the Democrats that fails to incorporate their demands, as was previously carried out against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-California). Johnson, for his part, is refusing to bring to the floor of the House for a vote Biden’s request for tens of billions of dollars in further military aid to Ukraine, the key component of the White House supplemental funding request, despite Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s support for the measure. Following Tuesday’s meeting at the White House, Johnson spoke to the press and reiterated his opposition to more Ukraine war funding until and unless Biden carries out unspecified executive actions to “secure the US border” with Mexico. “When you talk about America’s needs, you have to talk first about our open border,” he told reporters. On the issue of averting a government shutdown, Johnson said he was “optimistic” that a bipartisan deal could be reached before the midnight Friday deadline. The corporate media has portrayed the White House meeting as a “gang-up” by Democrats Biden, Schumer and Jeffries together with Republican McConnell on Johnson. The Hill reported: “A Republican senator who requested anonymity to discuss internal strategy for avoiding a government shutdown said the objective of the White House meeting was to pile pressure on Johnson.” After the White House meeting, Schumer and Jeffries spoke to the press. They called the meeting “intense” and “productive” and claimed that “real progress” was being made. Jeffries said, “I’m cautiously optimistic that we can do what is necessary in the next day or so to close down these bills and avoid a government shutdown.” McConnell appeared separately and expressed his essential agreement with Biden, telling the press, “Not only do we not want to shut the government down, we don’t want the Russians to win in Ukraine.” The Republican senator acknowledged that Johnson might be removed as speaker if he adopts a position that the Democrats will support. Behind the machinations over the budget is the deepening crisis of the entire US political system, which is wracked by internecine conflicts that arise from unprecedented levels of social inequality, escalating world imperialist war and the growth of social opposition in the working class. Workers will bear the brunt of any, even partial shutdown of government functions. Impacted federal workers will have their paychecks delayed until after the shutdown ends. Critical employees, such as air traffic controllers, will be required to report and work without pay. Department of Agriculture funding for SNAP (food stamps) will be disrupted, although these funds are allocated a month in advance and alternate funding sources can be used by the government to keep the program running. Experts at the Food Research and Action Center say that a prolonged shutdown would put SNAP benefits at risk. Applications for Federal Housing Administration loans and payments for subsidized housing will be delayed in a shutdown. Veterans services, such as career counseling and cemetery maintenance, could also be impacted. If the shutdown were to continue past the March 8-9 deadline, which would halt the remaining funding areas, the economic and social effects would increase exponentially, with Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the US Postal Service impacted.

House passes short-term funding bill to avert shutdown - The House on Thursday approved a short-term funding bill to avert a partial government shutdown this weekend, sending the legislation to the Senate one day before Friday’s funding deadline. The legislation — which cleared the chamber in a 320-99 vote — kicks the two government funding deadlines to March 8 and March 22, buying lawmakers more time to hash out their differences on spending bills and push them over the finish line. Trouble, however, could loom ahead. While lawmakers say they have a deal on the six appropriations bills due next week, disagreements remain on the other half-dozen measures, which include more controversial pieces of legislation funding agencies like the Pentagon and the Department of Homeland Security. “Clearly the second group of bills could be difficult and problematic, especially as Republicans in the House continue to insist on policy riders that erode women’s reproductive freedom,” Rep. Pete Aguilar (Calif.), chair of the Democratic Caucus, said shortly before the vote. In the near-term, the continuing resolution keeps the government running and lends a small victory for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) who is fighting to avoid a shutdown, which would be blamed on House Republicans who have demanded controversial policy additions to funding bills. But it puts him on thin ice with members of the right flank, who abhor short-term spending bills and are becoming fed up with his propensity to put continuing resolutions on the floor that pass with Democratic support — as was the case Thursday.Only 113 Republicans voted for the bill, compared to 207 Democrats, though slightly more than half the GOP conference voted in favor. Only two Democrats — Reps. Jake Auchincloss (Mass.) and Mike Quigley (Ill.) — voted no. Thursday’s vote marked the fourth stopgap bill the chamber has cleared this Congress, and it’s the third under the Louisiana Republican’s leadership. To bypass the conservative opposition, Johnson brought the legislation to the floor under suspension of the rules, a fast-track process that requires two-thirds support for passage but eliminates the need to approve a procedural rule, which conservatives likely would have tanked. It’s a maneuver that helped lead to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) — who lost the gavel in September after passing a short-term spending bill with help from Democrats. But Johnson’s job appears safe for the time being. Conservatives were quick to voice their opposition to the spending bill Thursday, but would not go as far as to vow retribution for the top Republican. “Here we are again, kicking the can down the road,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said on the House floor Thursday. “Buy more time so we can spend more money that we don’t have.”

Head of Freedom Caucus bashes funding deal, vows shutdown fight The head of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus is bashing the nascent funding agreement hashed out by leaders of both parties, warning that conservatives would be willing to force a government shutdown to secure steeper cuts and policy preferences. Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) has led the charge among the far-right lawmakers urging Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to fight for scores of conservative policy riders to accompany the 2024 spending bills. Absent that, those Republicans want the Speaker to champion a stopgap bill, known as a continuing resolution (CR), to extend government funding at current 2023 levels through the remainder of the fiscal year, which ends Oct. 1. The latter strategy would trigger an automatic, 1-percent cut to federal programs of all types beginning May 1 — a stipulation of last summer’s bipartisan Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) designed to encourage lawmakers to reach an agreement on 2024 spending or face reductions to popular programs. Good said that 1-percent cut is far preferable to the deal Johnson endorsed with the leaders of both parties and both chambers, which adopts higher spending caps established by those same leaders in January. He’s also calling for a series of policy changes, including tougher border security measures and a scaling back of the government’s spying powers under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). “I would do a CR through Sept. 30 that triggers the FRA caps that would cut about $100 billion from the deal,” Good said Wednesday evening in the Capitol. “I’d attach border security to it. I would attach [the] Israel pay-for. And I’d attach FISA … reforms. That’s what I’d like to see happen. And we ought to be willing to have a shutdown fight to force it to happen.” Good isn’t the only conservative voicing his disapproval. Reps. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) were among the conservatives who said Thursday they wouldn’t vote for a stopgap measure. Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) said he prefers a yearlong CR to the one announced Wednesday night. “I’m for the long-term CR; that’s the only way you can get leverage,” he said. “That’s not what the direction looks like now.” And Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) made clear she’s unhappy with the direction the party is headed. “Remember the big fight earlier this year about no CR’s and rules and no omnibuses and no minibuses? Well, everything talked about in conference this morning was a CR, another CR, a weeklong CR,” she said. “And then you’ve got the most conservative members of Congress standing up wanting a one-year CR. I don’t know what to say.”

Yellen Wants Frozen Russian Bank Funds To Be Given To Ukraine Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Tuesday called for the US and its allies to hand $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank funds to Ukraine, a step that would significantly escalate the Western economic war against Russia. "It is necessary and urgent for our coalition to find a way to unlock the value of these immobilized assets to support Ukraine’s continued resistance and long-term reconstruction," Yellen said in Brazil, where Group of 20 finance ministers are meeting this week, according to The Associated Press. The comments from Yellen mark her most supportive statement of the outright theft of Russian funds to finance the war in Ukraine. The call comes as the Biden administration is still struggling to get Congress to pass the $60 billion it’s seeking to fuel the conflict. "I believe there is a strong international law, economic, and moral case for moving forward. This would be a decisive response to Russia’s unprecedented threat to global stability," Yellen added. The US needs the support of European Countries for the plan as the bulk of the Russian funds, about $200 billion, are held by European banks. The EU is still debating the idea but has approved a law to set aside profits made by the Russian central bank funds to potentially send to Ukraine. About $67 billion of the Russian money is being held by the US Federal Reserve. US officials have previously expressed concern that spending the Russian funds could make other countries hesitant to keep funds in dollars, thus speeding up global de-dollarization. Yellen insisted it was "extremely unlikely" that stealing the Russian funds would hurt the dollar or the currencies of US allies. "Realistically, there are not alternatives to the dollar, euro, and yen," she said. The White House has come out in support of the plan and says it needs "legislative authorities" from Congress to spend the funds. Legislation has been introduced in both chambers of Congress to create a fund for Ukraine using Russian money, and the bills have strong bipartisan support.

France Rejects US Call to Give Russian Central Bank Funds to Ukraine - France has rejected a call from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to give $300 billion in frozen Russian central bank funds to Ukraine, a step that would amount to outright theft.Yellen claimed there was a legal case to support handing the funds to Ukraine to fund the proxy war and future reconstruction, but French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said there wasn’t.“We don’t think this legal basis is sufficient,” Le Maire said after a G7 finance ministers meeting in Brazil. “This legal basis must be accepted not only by the European countries, not only by the G7 countries, but by all the member states of the world community, and I mean by all the member states of the G20. We should not add any kind of division among the G20 countries.”The EU is moving forward with a plan to set up a fund for Ukraine using profits made by the frozen Russian money, which Le Maire pointed out. The US has welcomed the plan but wants the EU to go further.The US needs Europe onboard for the plan since the bulk of the Russian central bank funds, about $200 billion, are being held by European banks. About $67 billion is held by the US Federal Reserve, and legislation has been introduced in Congress to allow the money to be used for Ukraine.Yellen’s call to fund the proxy war with the Russian central bank funds comes as President Biden is still struggling to get Congress to authorize another $60 billion in spending on the war.Russia has warned it has ways to respond if the US and its allies go ahead and send the Russian funds to Ukraine. “We have ways to respond. We have also frozen sufficient volumes of financial assets and investments of foreign investors in our securities, all of which transfers we carry out for the owners of our securities,” said Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

Democrats Signal They Would Protect Speaker Johnson If He Brought Ukraine Aid to Floor for a Vote - Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), the top Democrat in the House, has suggested that Democrats would protect House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) from being ousted if he brought the $95 billion foreign military aid bill to the floor for a vote.Some Republicans have threatened to oust Johnson as speaker if he holds a vote on the bill, and it would only take one GOP member to file a motion to vacate the speakership, which would bring about a vote to oust him.When Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) was ousted, every single Democrat and eight Republicans voted against him. But Jeffries said some Democrats may be willing to promise to vote to keep Johnson as speaker if he moves forward the $95 billion bill, which includes aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. “It does seem to me based on informal conversations, that were Speaker Johnson to do the right thing relative to meeting the significant national security needs of the American people by putting it on the floor for an up-or-down vote, there will be a reasonable number of people in the House Democratic caucus who will take the position that he should not fall as a result,” Jeffries said.The $95 billion bill has already made it through the Senate and is expected to pass through the House by a wide margin if a vote is held. Jeffries said he believes the legislation would receive “north of 300 votes from both sides of the aisle” if brought to the floor.Johnson and other congressional leaders met with President Biden at the White House on Tuesday to discuss the foreign military aid bill and a deal to avert a government shutdown, which will happen if a spending bill isn’t authorized by Congress before March 8. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said “good progress” was made in the meeting, but it’s unclear when a deal will be reached on either issue.

Democratic leader shoots down discharge petition on Ukraine-border bill - The head of the House Democratic Caucus wasted no time Thursday shooting down a bipartisan proposal linking Ukraine aid to border security. Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) said the supporters of that plan are “well-meaning” and “thoughtful” lawmakers. “But I just don’t think this is the solution that is in front of us,” Aguilar told reporters in the Capitol. The Ukraine-border package was introduced earlier in the month in an effort to break the impasse over military aid to Kyiv, which has been held up by opposition from House conservatives. And the supporters of the legislation are already seeking support for a discharge petition to force their proposal to the floor, according to Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a lead sponsor. But many Democrats have hammered Fitzpatrick’s proposal both for provisions it includes, like a “remain in Mexico” policy governing would-be migrants, and for those it leaves out, like humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza. And Aguilar made clear that Democratic leaders prefer a Senate-passed foreign aid bill, which includes new funding for Ukraine, Israel and humanitarian aid in Gaza — but no border security provisions — and will continue pressing Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring it to the floor. “The solution is incredibly clear. It is the bipartisan solution that has 70 votes out of the United States Senate,” he said. “Getting the Senate to take up anything new would be weeks or months. So the importance of passing this national security supplemental is the focus and the priority of House Democrats. And we believe Speaker Johnson should put this on the floor.” Former President Trump, however, opposes any new aid to Ukraine. And his influence has been conspicuous on Capitol Hill, where most Senate Republicans opposed the foreign assistance bill earlier in the month, and House conservatives are lining up in opposition, as well. One of those conservatives, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), has threatened a vote of no confidence against Johnson if he even brings the aid bill to the floor.

New York Times report demolishes the narrative of the “unprovoked war” in Ukraine - For the past two years, nearly every reference in the US media to the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia has been preceded with an obligatory word—“unprovoked.” The public was expected to accept that this was the first war in history without any historical antecedents or economic motives, the first war based entirely on the psychology of one man, Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, on the weekend of the second anniversary of the war, the New York Times published a lengthy article revealing that the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 was instigated by a systematic and widespread campaign of military-intelligence aggression by the United States. The article details longstanding Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) operations in Ukraine, in which the agency sponsored and built up the Ukrainian military intelligence agency HUR, using it as a weapon of spying, assassinations and other provocations directed against Russia for more than a decade. For more than a decade, the CIA was building up, training and arming Ukrainian intelligence and paramilitary forces that were engaging in assassinations and other provocations against pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine, against Russian forces in Crimea and across the border into Russia itself. In a critical passage, the Times writes: As the partnership deepened after 2016, the Ukrainians became impatient with what they considered Washington’s undue caution, and began staging assassinations and other lethal operations, which violated the terms the White House thought the Ukrainians had agreed to. Infuriated, officials in Washington threatened to cut off support, but they never did. In other words, the Ukrainian paramilitary forces armed, funded and led by the United States and NATO were systematically assassinating forces supporting closer relations with Russia. The newspaper’s account begins with the Maidan coup of February 2014, when right-wing and neo-Nazi forces backed by the US and European Union overthrew a pro-Russian president and installed a pro-imperialist regime headed by the billionaire Petro Poroshenko. This coup was the culmination of two decades of imperialist inroads into the former Soviet bloc, with the expansion of NATO to include virtually all of Eastern Europe, in violation of pledges made to the leaders of the former Soviet Union. The Times is silent on this earlier history, as well as on the role of the CIA in the Maidan events. Maidan set the stage for a massive escalation of the CIA intervention, as detailed in the Times report. The intelligence agency played a central role in fueling conflict between Ukraine and Russia, first as a low-level war against pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine, then as a full-scale war after the Russian invasion in February 2022. Three US administrations were involved: first Obama, then Trump and now Biden. According to the Times account, CIA operations included not only widespread spying but assisting direct provocations like the assassination of pro-Russian politicians in eastern Ukraine and paramilitary attacks on Russian forces in Crimea. Long before the Russian invasion, the CIA was seeking to broaden its attack on Moscow. The Times reports: The relationship [with the Ukrainian HUR] was so successful that the C.I.A. wanted to replicate it with other European intelligence services that shared a focus in countering Russia. The head of Russia House, the C.I.A. department overseeing operations against Russia, organized a secret meeting at The Hague. There, representatives from the C.I.A., Britain’s MI6, the HUR, the Dutch service (a critical intelligence ally) and other agencies agreed to start pooling together more of their intelligence on Russia.The result was a secret coalition against Russia—and the Ukrainians were vital members of it. All these activities occurred well before the Russian invasion of February 2022. The outbreak of full-scale war led to even more direct CIA engagement in Ukraine. CIA agents were the only Americans not covered by the initial evacuation of US government personnel from Ukraine, removing only to western Ukraine. They continually briefed the Ukrainians on Russian military plans, including precise details of operations as they were unfolding. In other words, the CIA was helping direct the war, making the US government a full participant, a co-belligerent in a war with nuclear-armed Russia, despite Biden’s claim that the United States was only aiding Ukraine from afar. And all this without the American people having the slightest say in the matter. The Times account also provides an inadvertent indictment of the American media, as it writes: “The details of this intelligence partnership, many of which are being disclosed by the New York Times for the first time, have been a closely guarded secret for a decade.” This admission means that these secrets were “closely guarded” by the Times itself. As former Editor Bill Keller once observed, freedom of the press means freedom not to publish, and “that is a freedom we exercise with some regularity.” Particularly, we might add, when it comes to the crimes of US imperialism. By reporting the virtual control of the Ukrainian regime by the US military-intelligence apparatus, the Times is seeking to pressure the Republicans to support the war funding. It is arguing that this money is not going to a foreign government, in a foreign war, thousands of miles from US borders, but to a subcontractor of American imperialism, waging an American war in which US personnel are deeply and directly engaged. In so doing, the Times has revealed its own coverage of the Ukraine war over the past two years to have been nothing more than war propaganda, aimed at using a fraudulent narrative to dragoon the American public to support a predatory imperialist war of aggression aimed at subjugating and dismantling Russia.

CIA Built 12 Spy Bases in Ukraine Near the Russian Border Over Past Decade - The CIA helped build 12 secret spy bases in Ukraine along the Russian border as part of the agency’s support for Ukrainian intelligence that started in 2014, The New York Times reported on Sunday. The report described one of the CIA-built spy bases as an underground bunker used by Ukrainian soldiers to “track Russian spy satellites and eavesdrop on conversations between Russian commanders.” The Times report sheds new light on the CIA’s involvement in Ukraine, which played a major role in provoking the Russian invasion. A European official told the paper that when Russian President Vladimir Putin was considering invading Ukraine toward the end of 2021, the head of one of Russia’s main spy services told him that the CIA and Britain’s MI6 were controlling Ukraine and turning it into a beachhead for operations against Moscow. The report said the CIA’s relationship with Ukrainian intelligence could be traced back to February 24, 2014, right after former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in a US-backed coup. On that day, Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, the new head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), called the CIA and asked for help in rebuilding Ukraine’s intelligence capabilities. The CIA agreed to help as it saw an opportunity to collect more intelligence on Russia. The US spy agency helped form the Fifth Directorate in the SBU, which consisted of young Ukrainians who were born after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The idea was to assuage CIA concerns about the Ukrainian spy agency being full of older, more Russian-sympathetic Ukrainians. The Washington Post first reported on the CIA’s creation of the Fifth Directorate back in October 2023. ThePost report said that the CIA had spent tens of millions of dollars “to transform Ukraine’s Soviet-formed services into potent allies against Moscow.”The CIA has also supported Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, known as the GUR. The GUR provided an opportunity for the US since it was allowed to collect intelligence outside of Ukraine, meaning it could be used inside Russia. A former US intelligence official speaking to the Post described the GUR as “our little baby.”The Times report said the CIA started training Ukrainian spies who have operated inside Russia, across Europe, in Cuba, and other places where the Russians have a large presence. The CIA also helped create an elite commando unit known as Unit 2245, which collected Russian drones and other technology so the US could reverse-engineer them. One member of Unit 2245 was Kyrylo Budanov, who now heads the GUR. Ukrainian intelligence services began assassinating separatist leaders in the Donbas in 2016 and has been credited with several killings inside Russia, including the car bombing that killed Darya Dugina, daughter of the Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin. The CIA’s and overall US intelligence support has significantly increased since Russia launched its invasion on February 24, 2022. Most US personnel were evacuated from Ukraine right before the invasion, but a group of CIA officers remained in a remote location in western Ukraine and provided intelligence support for the first weeks of fighting.

"Americans Are Being Lied To About Ukraine" - Tucker Carlson Reflects On Putin, Zelensky, Navalny & Nuclear War --The international attacks on Tucker Carlson, especially from within US mainstream media and NATO-connected circles, have only increased following his hugely controversial eight day visit to Russia earlier this month where he interviewed President Vladimir Putin. Russian state media has even this week claimed authorities uncovered an "assassination plot" - rumored to have been backed by Kiev.This week the former FOX prime time host was interviewed about his trip and the whole Putin interview experience in three-hour podcast hosted by Lex Fridman. Tucker Carlson revealed more about what motivated him to do the televised Putin segment, and further discussed his personal take on the Russia-Ukraine war and where it could go from here, now having entered its third year. Interestingly, Carlson's main critique of the war focused not on Putin or the Kremlin's actions in Ukraine, which of course are not under his control or influence, but on the impact to America.Carlson explained that the West's escalation of the conflict long ago into a full-blown proxy war has not only resulted in more needless Ukrainian deaths, but it has been devastating for the United States. "I reject the whole premise of the war in Ukraine from the American perspective," Carlson told Fridman. "There’s a war going on that is wrecking the US economy in a way and at a scale that people do not understand." He also generally characterized the response of the US political class to the conflict, along with the American public which has uncritically followed, as naive.Carlson emphasized that what would be a cautiously realist approach was utterly abandoned by Washington from the start, as has been typical of the past decades of US interventionism abroad. "It doesn’t even matter what I want to happen… that’s a distortion of what is happening," Carlson explained, and pointed to Russia having 100 million more people and more defense industry might "than all of NATO combined." He described that a big part of the rationale behind the Putin interview was to bring "more information" to the West so that "people could make their own decisions about whether" escalation of weapons to Kiev and jingoistic rhetoric from Western capitals is a good idea.Ultimately, he said, Americans are being lied to:"Just to be clear, I have no plans to move to Russia. I think I would probably be arrested if I moved to Russia. Ed Snowden, who is the most famous openness, transparency, advocate in the world, I would say along with Assange, doesn’t want to live in Russia. He’s had problems with the Putin government. He’s attacked Putin. They don’t like it. I get it. I get it. I’m just saying, what are the lessons for us?The main lesson is we are being lied to in a way that’s bewildering and very upsetting. I was mad about it all eight days I was there because I feel like I’m better informed than most people because it’s my job to be informed. I’m skeptical of everything and yet I was completely hoodwinked by it." Topics highlighted throughout the long-ranging conversion included Carlson's personal take on being one-on-one with a seemingly "nervous" Putin, the question of ending the war in Ukraine, the role of the CIA and Western intelligence services, the prospect that the crisis could spiral into nuclear confrontation with the West, the Alexei Navalny saga, as well as a foray into the Israel-Palestine conflict near the end. Watch the full Carlson-Fridman interview below...

NATO Freakout Over Crumbling Ukraine Military: Poland Threatens US with Nuclear Development if No Aid Package – by Yves Smith - Admittedly the Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski is rabidly anti-Russian. Fortunately, there does not seem to be much mainstream Anglosphere press amplification of his remarks at the UN last Friday and his follow-up comments to Bloomberg and CNN. As we’ll see, they are based on the barmy idea that Russia will roll up Poland after fully eating up Ukraine. So Poland is threatening the US that if it does not keep pouring money into the Ukraine black hole, NATO members will have to take matters into their own hands by getting nukes.As we’ll discuss soon, the vehemence of Sikorski’s comment seems triggered not just by the House’s refusal to approve $61 billion for Ukraine, but also the spectacle of the Ukraine forces starting to crumble with a defeat that at the end turned into a rout in Adiivka.In a recent post, we considered the question of how Russia seemed vanishingly unlikely to defeat its ultimate opponent, the US and NATO, in the Ukraine proxy war, and what that could mean for how Russia prosecutes the Ukraine war. Recall the Clausewitz standard:War therefore is an act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfill our will. While NATO members may eventually settle down into what Aurelien calls epic sulking, Sikorski’s remarks illustrate that the most ferociously ant-Russian NATO members, Poland and the Baltic states, will continue to whip up fears of Russian invasion and sapping of precious bodily fluids.And could they do more than just bark at Russia? As we’ll discuss, Poland’s current and likely near-term support of the Ukraine conflict may Russia in a tricky position and could even affect how it paces the war. Recall that Sikorski, who at the time was not in the Polish government, thanked the US for the destruction of the NordStream pipelines.His recent remark is not a direct threat but it still is awfully specific. Fortunately, Poland and the Baltic states are not well positioned to move it forward: Wikipedia does not list any of them as having nuclear reactors. Nevertheless, Sikorski’s remarks about nuclear weapons make for a jarring contrast with Poland’s position in opposition to nuclear power being include in the EU “green finance taxonomy”.Sikorski’s threat display demonstrates that Ukraine defeat at Adiivka has punctured the very large propaganda balloon about inevitable Ukraine victory. For one-stop shopping, Similicius the Thinker has an excellent sitrep that is very heavy on Western news coverage, with alarmed headlines from virtually all major outlets, including the Washington Post, New York Times, The Hill, Politico, ABCIn concert with downbeat official statements, many reports did not try to pretty up the fact that the Ukraine forces crumbled in Adiivka, by highlighting the capture of troops and the disorderly evacuation, aka rout. Moreover, the press is also covering unsightly realities like the exhaustion and demoralization of Ukraine forces, the losses they have suffered, and even the almost medieval conditions in the trenches.But Sikorski’s belligerent talk is in keeping with the assessment of Politica’s morning European newsletter, that the posturing greatly exceeds the ability to do much: Some 20 European leaders are meeting today at the Elysée Palace for a hastily convened summit in support of Ukraine…. The problem with the EU’s enthusiastic support? To date, the rhetoric hasn’t been matched with sufficient ammunition and weapons deliveries — with North Korea and Iran sending more ammo to Russia than the entire EU has to Ukraine…. Without action to back it up, the Elysée is increasingly alone in its optimism. Only one in 10 Europeans think Ukraine can win, according to a recent poll….The question European leaders will need to answer: Are they prepared — and willing — to step in and make up for a flagging U.S.? A careful reader will notice that this is just a new version of the old “fight Russia to the last Ukrainian” strategy, that the EU is at best intending to send more weapons when its and the US’ deliveries were not enough to overcome Russian forces. A new analysis, republished in TASS, dutifully recounts how Western weaponry in the famed summer counter-offensive greatly exceeded what Russia brought to that fight. Of course, there is the wee matter that the West provided almost nada in the way of air support, which is considered in the sort of doctrinal offensive that the US and NATO ginned up. And among other failings, they also appeared not to have contemplated Russia mining their too-clearly-announced line of attack, and then quickly mining behind the advancing forces, so they suffered more losses when retreating.

Ukraine Military Intelligence Chief Says Navalny Died of a Blood Clot - Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s CIA-backed military intelligence agency, said Sunday that Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny died of a blood clot.“I may disappoint you, but as far as we know, he indeed died as a result of a blood clot. And this has been more or less confirmed,” Budanov said, according to the Kyiv Post. “This wasn’t sourced from the internet, but, unfortunately, natural [causes].”According to Navalny’s supporters, his death certificate issued by Russian authorities said he died of “natural causes.” Navalny died at 47 years old while serving a 19-year sentence at a penal colony in Siberia. Immediately after his death, President Biden blamed it on Russian President Vladimir Putin. “We don’t know exactly what happened, but there is no doubt that the death of Navalny was the consequence of something that Putin and his thugs did,” Biden said. The US has not responded to or spoken out about Gonzalo Lira, an American citizen who recently died in a Ukrainian prison after being jailed for his political views. Lira’s last communication to his attorney said that he was battling a severe case of pneumonia that he said was initially ignored by Ukrainian authorities. His father said the US government did nothing to help his son.

Putin Warns West Russia's Nuclear Arsenal Is On 'Full Combat Alert' - Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a speech on Thursday that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is in “full combat alert,” a warning that comes after French President Emmanuel Macron said the idea of NATO deploying troops to Ukraine was not ruled out.“The strategic nuclear forces are on full combat alert, and the ability to use them is assured,” Putin told Russia’s Federal Assembly, which includes both chambers of the Russian parliament.Later in the speech, Putin specifically addressed the talk of NATO sending troops to Ukraine. “They are selecting targets to strike on our territory and contemplating the most efficient means of destruction,” he said, likely referring to US and NATO intelligence support for Ukraine.“Now they have started talking about the possibility of deploying NATO military contingents to Ukraine,” Putin said. “But we remember what happened to those who sent their contingents to the territory of our country once before. Today, any potential aggressors will face far graver consequences. They must grasp that we also have weapons – yes, they know this, as I have just said – capable of striking targets on their territory.” Putin said the West was “spooking the world with the threat of a conflict involving nuclear weapons, which potentially means the end of civilization – don’t they realize this?” Macron’s comments about Western troops in Ukraine drew attention to the fact that there are already a small number of NATO special operations forces in the country, which was revealed by the Discord leaks last year. According to a leaked Pentagon document from March 2023, there were 97 NATO special operations soldiers, including 14 Americans, in Ukraine at the time.

US Issues Warning To Breakaway Moldovan Region Seeking Russia's 'Protection' -- Russian state media says that the country's parliament and Federation Council is preparing to respond positively to Transistria's earlier urgent requestion for Moscow's 'protection' from Moldova, a small eastern European country supported by Washington. Russian legislators have "put forward a request to both the Federation Council and State Duma of Russia, urging them to implement measures to safeguard Transnistria, especially in light of Moldova’s growing pressure. This request is backed up by the fact that over 220,000 Russian citizens reside in Transnistria." The Biden administration has responded by saying it is "closely watching" the situation, calling the breakaway "occupied" by Russian forces (since Soviet times). "The United States firmly supports Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders," the State Department said Wednesday.And it begins...Ambassador Kent Logsdon spoke to Moldova State University students about the strong partnership between the United States and Moldova. He highlighted U.S. assistance over the last 32 years, which totals over $2.5 billion, celebrated Moldova’s progress toward EU membership and pic.twitter.com/A7BxTvrKy0 — U.S. Embassy Moldova (@USembMoldova) February 28, 2024 * * * As previously predicted, things are erupting in Transnistria at a moment Western officials have warned Moscow not to expand its war beyond Ukraine. The breakaway pro-Russian Moldova region on Wednesday issued a formal request from Moscow for "protection" "in the face of increased pressure," according to AFP.A special congress of pro-Russian officials passed a resolution which charges the Moldovan government in Chisinau with unleashing "economic war" against Transnistria with an aim to turn it into a "ghetto", which has included blocking imports.While internationally, the thin sliver of land has been internationally recognized as part of Moldova, it has been under Russian troop presence going all the way back to the collapse of the Soviet Union.The breakaway republic issued a statement further saying "the decisions of the current congress cannot be ignored by the international community."The formal request is expected to be put before Russia's Federation Council and the State Duma at any moment. It asks for Russia "to implement measures to protect Transnistria in the face of increased pressure from Moldova" - and clearly this language suggests military intervention, or else other measures like immense economic and political pressure on Moldova.Last year, the Council of Europe formally declared Moldova's breakaway region "occupied territory" - upgrading its status from what was deemed territory "under the effective control of the Russian Federation."As we previewed days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to make a speech before the Federal Assembly of Russia on February 29th. Although Transnistria has diverse ethnic demographics almost equally apportioned between Russians, Moldovans, Romanians and Ukrainians, the Russian demographic slightly ekes out its counterparts with a plurality of 29% of Transnistrians belonging to the group.The pro-Russian cultural sentiment of the region is exemplified by its flag, which has remained the same as it was when Transnistria was a part of the Soviet Union. That representative Russian demographic, coupled with broader dissatisfaction of the Moldovan government, has fostered support for assimilation into the Russian Federation for quite some time. In 2006, a Transnistrian double referendum gauged popular support for the separatist state's appetite to either renounce its independence and join the Republic Of Moldova, or to maintain it and seek to join the Russian Federation. The referendum to become part of Moldova was rejected by 96% of voters while 98% approved of becoming part of Russia.

Dozens of pro-Palestine protesters arrested outside of Biden interview About 50 pro-Palestine protesters were arrested at NBC headquarters in New York City on Monday protesting President Biden’s appearance on “Late Night with Seth Meyers,” according to protest group Jewish Voice for Peace. The group said hundreds of its members took over the lobby of 30 Rockefeller Center, where the show is filmed. Photos show protesters donned in black shirts reading “cease fire now” alongside signs calling for a cease fire. One sign reads, “Jews to Biden: Stop Arming Genocide.”“President Biden’s deadly foreign policy has expedited weapons sales to Israel, ignored the World Court’s determination that Israel is committing genocide, suspended funding to UNRWA, and vetoed three UN ceasefire resolutions,” the group wrote on X, formerly Twitter.“The President needs to start answering to the American people – not the far-Right Israeli government indiscriminately bombing the people of Gaza, destroying 70% of infrastructure, including hospitals, universities and the electricity and water grids,” the group continued.Pressure has mounted on President Biden to back a full cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war, which he has so far refused. Biden has instead pursued short-term pauses in the conflict. He said Monday that he hopes the two sides will be able to agree to a six-week pause by this week. Progressives have driven much of Biden’s opposition among Democrats regarding the conflict, with a coalition of pro-Palestine voters expected to carry out a protest campaign during the Michigan primaries on Tuesday. Moderate Democrats have also raised questions about the amount of military support for Israel amidst its ground invasion of Gaza. Over 30,000 Palestinians have died in the conflict, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, with nearly all the region’s 2.3 million population displaced and needing food, according to the United Nations.

San Francisco artists protest Israeli massacres in Gaza by “vandalizing” their own works - A group of San Francisco artists last week carried out a protest against the Israeli genocide in Gaza and the silence of leading US arts institutions about the horrific crime by altering their own works. The protest took place during a public event at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts (YBCA), the multidisciplinary contemporary arts venue in San Francisco, on the evening of February 15. Eight artists, whose work was part of Bay Area Now 9, a show of 30 Northern California artists and the Center’s triennial exhibition, entered the space and spray-painted or draped pro-Palestinian messages over their own work. The artists called their protest “Love Letter to GAZA” in response to the February 15 event’s title, “Love Letter to SOMA [South of Market, a neighborhood in San Francisco].” In response, the Center closed its doors for the weekend. The artists unfurled a banner that read “Stop Funding Genocide.” Several of them went to work on their own art pieces, using fake blood as well as paint. According to KQED public radio, “Ceramic artist Paz G spray painted their sculpture You Have a Broken Heart in bright pink letters reading ‘Viva Palestina—Free Palestine.’ Jeffrey Cheung, whose colorful, large-scale paintings of abstracted nude forms hang in the main gallery, hung a sign reading ‘Ceasefire Now!’ over his works.” In addition, “the artist champoy, along with several people wearing masks and keffiyehs, turned champoy’s boat sculpture into an altar for Gazan people killed in Israeli airstrikes, with their names and ages written on notecards. Tracy Ren laid a banner on their wool rug installation that read ‘No more blood money—ceasefire now.’” The other exhibition participants who modified their works were Sholeh Asgary, Courtney Desiree Morris, Lukaza Branfman-Verissimo and Leila Weefur. The Center had advertised the “Love Letter to SOMA” in part by pointing to “a new public artwork by Lukaza Branfman-Verissimo,” as well as “public art works” by Cheung and Weefur, among others. In addition to the artists’ efforts, supporters dropped leaflets with the artists’ demands from the Center’s upper balcony, bitterly echoing the Israeli military’s practice of alerting the Gazan population they are about to be bombed and killed. Various groups, including Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP) Bay Area, Writers Against the War on Gaza (WAWOG), Palestinian Feminist Collective and Bay Area Palestinian Youth Movement (PYM), participated in the protest.

US Airman Sets Himself on Fire in Front of Israeli Embassy to Protest Gaza Genocide - An active duty US airman set himself on fire in front of the Israeli embassy in Washington DC to protest the US-backed slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. According to Talia Jane, an independent journalist who obtained the video of the incident, the airman, who was identified as Aaron Bushnell, 25, died of his wounds late Sunday night. According to Axios, a video of the incident shows the airman saying he would “no longer be complicit in genocide” and that he was about to “engage in an extreme act of protest.” “But compared to what people have been experiencing in Palestine at the hands of their colonizers, it’s not extreme at all. This is what our ruling class has decided will be normal,” Bushnell said right before lighting himself on fire. While on fire, he repeatedly shouted, “Free Palestine.” He burned for about one minute before law enforcement officers extinguished the flames. According to Jane, one officer initially drew his gun on the airman as he burned. Washington DC’s Fire and Emergency Medical Services Department said in a post on X that the airman was transported to a hospital with “critical life-threatening injuries.” The department also said the officers who extinguished the fire were members of the US Secret Service. The dramatic protest comes as the number of Palestinians killed in Gaza by the Israeli campaign is approaching 30,000, and over 69,000 have been wounded. About two-thirds of the casualties are women and children. The International Court of Justice has ruled that it’s “plausible” Israel is committing genocide and decided to take up the case brought to the court by South Africa. Despite the massive civilian casualty rate and international pressure, the US continues to provide unconditional support for the slaughter.

Aaron Bushnell Burned Himself Alive To Make You Turn Your Eyes To Gaza - by Caitlin Johnstone -- I watched the uncensored video of US airman Aaron Bushnell self-immolatingin front of the Israeli embassy in Washington while screaming “Free Palestine”. I hesitated to watch it because I knew once I put it into my mind it’s there for the rest of my life, but I figured I owe him that much. I feel like I’ve been picked up and shaken, which I suppose was pretty much what Bushnell was going for. Something to shake the world awake to the reality of what’s happening. Something to snap us out of the brainwashed and distracted stupor of western dystopia and turn our gaze to Gaza.The sounds stay with you more than the sights. The sound of his gentle, youthful, Michael Cera-like voice as he walked toward the embassy. The sound of the round metal container he stored the accelerant in getting louder as it rolls toward the camera. The sound of Bushnell saying “Free Palestine”, then screaming it, then switching to wordless screams when the pain became too overwhelming, then forcing out one more “Free Palestine” before losing his words for good. The sound of the cop screaming at him to get on the ground over and over again. The sound of a first responder telling police to stop pointing guns at Bushnell’s burning body and go get fire extinguishers.He remained standing for an unbelievable amount of time while he was burning. I don’t know where he got the strength to do it. He remained standing long after he’d stopped vocalizing. Bushnell was taken to the hospital, where independent reporter Talia Jane reports that he has died. It was about as horrific a death as a human being can experience, and it was designed to be. Shortly before his final act in this world, Bushnell posted the following message on Facebook:“Many of us like to ask ourselves, ‘What would I do if I was alive during slavery? Or the Jim Crow South? Or apartheid? What would I do if my country was committing genocide?’“The answer is, you’re doing it. Right now.” Aaron Bushnell has provided his own answer to this challenge. We’re all providing our own right now.I would never do what Bushnell did, and I would never recommend anyone else does either. That said, I also can’t deny that his action is having its intended effect: drawing attention to the horrors that are happening in Gaza.I know this is true because everywhere I see Aaron Bushnell being discussed online I see a massive deluge of pro-Israel trolls frantically swarming the comments in a mad rush to manipulate the narrative. They all understand how destructive it is to US and Israeli information interests for people to be seeing an international news story about a member of the US Air Force self-immolating on camera while screaming “Free Palestine”, and they are doing everything they can to mitigate that damage. As I write this, there are with absolute certainty people digging through Bushnell’s history searching for dirt that can be spun as evidence that he was a bad person, that he was mentally ill, that he was steered astray by pro-Palestine activists and dissident media — whatever they can make stick. If they find something, literally anything, the smearmeisters and propagandists will run with it as far as they can. That’s what they’re choosing to do at this point in history. That’s what they would have done during slavery, or the Jim Crow south, or apartheid. That’s what they’re doing while their country commits genocide right now. People are showing what they would have done with their response to Gaza, and they’re showing what they would have done with their response to the self-immolation of Aaron Bushnell. I’m not going to link to the video here; watching it is a personal decision on which you should probably do your own legwork to make sure it’s really what you want. Whether you watch it or not, it happened, just like the incineration of Gaza is happening right now. We each own our personal response to that reality. This is who we are.

Poll: Two-Thirds of US Voters Support US Pushing for a Permanent Ceasefire in Gaza - A new poll from Data for Progress has found that about two-thirds of American voters support the idea of the US pushing for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, an idea that’s opposed by the Biden administration.When asked if they support the US calling for a permanent Gaza ceasefire and a general de-escalation of violence, 67% of respondents said they did, including 77% of Democrats, 69% of Independents, and 56% of Republicans.The support for a permanent ceasefire increased by six points since Data for Progress asked the question in a poll that was conducted at the end of November. Throughout the conflict, polling has consistently shown the majority of Americans favor a ceasefire.In the latest poll, voters were then asked if they would support the US calling for a ceasefire, de-escalation, and the “release of Israeli hostages from Gaza.” Including the call for the release of hostages increased support to 74%.When presented with arguments from both sides on why or why not to support a permanent ceasefire, 50% said the US should call for a ceasefire right now, while 35% said it should happen after Hamas is “defeated,” and 15% said they weren’t sure.Hamas has been offering to release all remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire, but the position has been rejected by Israel. In its latest proposal, Hamas suggested a 135-day ceasefire with the goal of reaching a lasting settlement in that time, but it was turned down by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who called Hamas’s demands “delusional.”

Biden Walks Back Prediction That a Gaza Ceasefire Will Be Reached By Monday - President Biden on Thursday walked back a prediction he made earlier this week that a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached by Monday as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Hamas’s demands “delusional,” signaling a hostage deal is not close. When Biden first predicted a ceasefire by Monday, both Hamas and Israeli officials said he spoke too soon. Hamas officials have said the main gap between the two sides is that they want a permanent ceasefire, while Israel and the US only want to pause the slaughter of Palestinians. In Tel Aviv on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu placed all the blame for the lack of a deal on Hamas. “We face a brick wall of delusional, unrealistic Hamas demands,” Netanyahu said, adding that Hamas “knows its demands are delusional and is not even trying to move close to an area of agreement. That’s the situation.” The deal that’s on the table would involve Hamas releasing 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for a six-week ceasefire and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. According to The Times of Israel, both Israeli and Hamas representatives are discussing the potential deal with Qatari officials in Doha, and Qatar has said there have been no breakthroughs. Earlier this week, Haaretz reported that Netanyahu was complicating negotiations by adding an additional demand to have the Palestinian prisoners deported to another country and for his vow that after any ceasefire, Israel would resume its brutal operations in Gaza and invade Rafah, which is packed with 1.5 million Palestinians. Palestinian children have started starving to death in the Gaza Strip, and UN officials and famine experts are warning that if conditions don’t change on the ground, mass starvation will happen soon. Over 100 Palestinians were killed in northern Gaza on Thursday when Israeli forces fired on a crowd gathered around an aid convoy.

US Officials Warn Israeli Disruptions to Aid Is 'Turning Gaza into Mogadishu' - The White House has asked the Israeli government to end attacks on police in Gaza. Targeting the civil police force has caused more chaos in the Strip and made aid distribution nearly impossible. US officials believe that the Israeli actions to prevent aid deliveries in Gaza are creating a humanitarian crisis similar to the situation that once existed in Mogadishu. Axios reported speaking with American and Israeli officials who said Washington has asked Tel Aviv to stop targeting the police force in Gaza. The police force was working with international aid groups to distribute aid in the Strip. As almost all of the 2.3 million Palestinians in Gaza are struggling to find food to eat, aid convoys have been mobbed and prevented from reaching their destination. The police force halted the escorts after Israeli forces began targeting the police.Tel Aviv has taken several other steps to restrict aid deliveries into Gaza. The Israeli Finance Minister is preventing the distribution of US-funded food shipments into the Strip. The Israeli government has also installed an onerous inspection regime for all aid entering Gaza. The inspections remove life-saving medications from shipments and create bottlenecks that slow delivery.Additionally, Israeli security forces allow Israeli civilian protesters to block aid deliveries at border crossings, further delaying the shipments. Even if the aid enters the Strip, Israeli forces have attacked the trucks.Prior to the Israeli assault on Gaza, 500 aid trucks entered the Strip daily to help support the besieged population. Since the onslaught began, Tel Aviv has barred commercial shipments and limited aid to just a fraction of the pre-war levels. The number of Palestinians relying on aid to survive has skyrocketed in that time. Tens of thousands of civilians have been severely injured in Israeli attacks. Virtually all the Palestinians living in Gaza are internally displaced. Just about every medical facility has been destroyed. One in six Palestinian children in northern Gaza are estimated to be on the brink of starvation. Many Palestinians have resorted to eating grass, rotting food, or animal feed. A two-month old Palestinian child starved to death in Central Gaza on Friday.

Israel massacres Palestinians seeking flour: A war crime made in Washington - On Thursday morning, Israeli infantrymen, snipers, tanks and drones opened fire on a crowd of starving Palestinians in Gaza City as they lined up to receive flour from aid trucks, killing at least 112 and injuring more than 700. Doctors reported that many victims arrived at hospitals with gunshots to their torsos and heads, indicating that they were deliberately targeted by Israeli troops, who were shooting to kill. Images from the scene showed bags of flour drenched in blood, leading many to refer to the killings as the “flour massacre.” The hundreds of victims overwhelmed local hospitals, which were already without medical supplies and power and were only able to provide first aid. This was a deliberate and premeditated massacre by the fascistic Netanyahu regime, as part of a systematic campaign to kill as many Gazans as possible and drive the rest from their land. Thursday’s massacre is just a foretaste of what Israel has in store as it prepares its full-scale assault on Rafah, where over 1 million people are seeking shelter after being displaced from northern Gaza. While Israeli troops pulled the trigger, they were using bullets and tank rounds paid for and supplied by the United States. The guilt does not stop at the White House. The entire US media establishment is complicit in covering up this atrocity. Every mainstream US media outlet rushed to promote and propagate Israel’s absurd cover story: That Palestinian aid drivers caused the massacre by plowing into the crowd, despite widespread footage of Israeli troops shooting at the unarmed civilians. Every US media account equated the plain and obvious truth, that Israeli troops massacred a crowd of hungry people, with an equally plain and obvious lie, that the troops had nothing to do with the death toll, claiming that these represented “conflicting accounts.” “Chaotic aid delivery turns deadly,” read a headline in the Washington Post. USA Today headlined its account: “112 killed in Gaza food aid carnage; Israel blames trampling, truck drivers.” Biden, responding to the murders, offered the usual banalities about a “tragic and alarming incident,” and called for “expanding the flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza.” These platitudes are meant to cover up the actual US policy of unconditional support for the Netanyahu regime no matter what it does. There are, as US officials have repeatedly made clear, no “red lines” for how many people Israel is allowed to kill. The Israeli regime can starve, massacre and displace the entire population of Gaza, as far as Biden, Blinken and their fellow enablers of genocide are concerned. Thursday’s act of mass murder is only the latest and deadliest in a series of massacres by Israeli troops during the distribution of food. These targeted operations are part of a deliberate policy to starve the civilian population of Gaza to death. In a statement, the Euro-Med Monitor warned: Israeli shooting towards starving people receiving aid has become a regular practice. In recent weeks, Israeli forces have directly attacked and killed dozens of people in Gaza City, including on Salah al-Din Street and in the vicinity of Kuwait Roundabout. Israel’s genocidal policy is having its intended effect. In a statement to CNN, Melanie Ward, CEO of Medical Aid to Palestine, said that as a result of Israel’s systematic blockade of food supplies, “This is the fastest decline in a population’s nutrition status ever recorded. That means children are being starved at the fastest rate the world has ever seen.”

Cease-fire calls in Congress grow after killings at Gaza humanitarian aid convoy Calls in Congress for increased humanitarian aid and a cease-fire in Gaza grew on Thursday after more than 100 people were killed near a convoy of trucks bringing in aid to civilians in Gaza City. Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) said there should be an opening of at least two points of entry for assistance to enter Gaza, instead of the one crossing at the southern border, to increase aid to areas including northern Gaza. “If those areas have all of the food and medicine and water and gas that folks need, you will avoid tragic, gut-wrenching events like today,” he said. “That has to be a priority.” He added that “diplomatic leaders got to push and push and push on all sides to bring this war to an end.” Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he wasn’t sure if the deadly incident changed the debate but said it is “more imperative than ever” to get more aid into Gaza. The bloody incident in which more than 100 people died in Gaza City came days after Michigan voters delivered a warning to President Biden in the form of a vote of “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary on Tuesday. More than 101,000 people — 13.2 percent of the vote — cast ballots for “uncommitted” to send a signal repudiating Biden’s support for Israel in the war. The two sides offered different stories on what happened Thursday, with Palestinians and Gazan officials contending that Israeli troops opened fire on people seeking humanitarian aid. Israel said many were injured or killed as a result of a chaotic rush on the convoy, and that troops only fired on people who approached troops in a threatening way. “As these vital humanitarian supplies were making their way toward Gazans in need, thousands of Gazans descended on the trucks,” said Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson. “Some began violently pushing and even trampling other Gazans to death, looting the humanitarian supplies.” Hagari said “no IDF strike was conducted toward the aid convoy.” The news was described as a “massacre” by the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which said as of Thursday evening that 112 people died and more than 700 remain injured in the frantic rush to access aid on Al-Rashid Street in Gaza City. When asked about the incident Thursday, President Biden told reporters that his administration was still “checking that out.” “There’s two competing versions of what happened,” Biden said. “I don’t have an answer yet.” Biden also acknowledged the deaths could complicate negotiations to secure a new cease-fire and hostage release deal after expressing optimism earlier this week that a deal was at hand. The U.S. is debating whether to send roughly $14 billion to Israel as part of a national security package, and some more progressive lawmakers are calling to place conditions on any assistance to the country to ensure humanitarian protections. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) grilled Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday about the death toll in Gaza, arguing there should be “consequences when another country is defying” a U.S. request to lower the death toll. “There has to be some consequence,” he said at a hearing, where Austin testified. Referencing the Thursday incident, Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) said on the Senate floor she was a friend of Israel but added that “this kind of bloodshed should be completely avoidable.” “I come to the floor as someone who feels very strongly that Israel absolutely must change course. The collective punishment in Gaza has got to stop, and Israel must do more to protect civilian life,” she said. “We need a mutually agreed upon cease-fire and end [to] the fighting as soon as possible; we need the return of all hostages by Hamas, and we need a massive surge in humanitarian aid.”

The Empire's Weakness Is That It Still Needs Normal People To Turn Its Gears - by Caitlin Johnstone -- In case you haven’t been following the story, back in December the Times published an article titled “‘Screams Without Words’: How Hamas Weaponized Sexual Violence on Oct. 7” which was riddled with glaring plot holes that were exposed by research from outlets like The Grayzone, Electronic Intifada, andMondoweiss. Later it came out with the help of an anonymous Twitter account named zei_squirrel that one of the three authors of the New York Times piece — Anat Schwartz — is a genocide-supporting Israeli intelligence veteran who had never worked in journalism before, and that another author of the piece — a food writer named Adam Sella — is her partner’s nephew. In late January a report from The Intercept revealed that there was a major internal conflict at The New York Times about the strength of the reporting in “Screams Without Words”, with a Times podcast dedicated to the article postponed and then abandoned when staff couldn’t agree whether to stick to the original reporting and risk an embarrassing retraction, or present it in less certain light and tacitly advertise that they didn’t have confidence in their report. The other day The Intercept printed a follow-up piece which included more information from New York Times sources, as well as damning admissions Schwartz made in Hebrew on an Israeli podcast about the process of publishing “Screams Without Words”. Schwartz’s comments make it clear that everywhere she looked at the beginning of her investigation turned up zero evidence of sexual assault, only finding “evidence” when she moved on tothoroughly discredited sources like the ultra-orthodox group Zaka. It alsomakes it clear that it was The New York Times who approached Schwartz to help write “Screams Without Words” of their own initiative — so this scandal is all theirs. In response to the leaks in the first Intercept article, The New York Times has launched a major leak investigation to determine who disclosed the information about internal strife at the paper to outside sources. Multiple anonymous New York Times staffers told Vanity Fair’s Charlotte Klein that they couldn’t remember any such inquisition having taken place before, and that they found it disconcerting. “That kind of witch hunt is really concerning.” So not only are New York Times staff leaking information about internal strife behind the scenes at the paper, they’re also leaking information about the investigation into those leaks. And now the Times Guild has sent a letter to New York Times publisher AG Sulzberger (whose family has published the paper for over a century), claiming NYT management have been singling out Arab and Muslim staff for interrogation on suspicion of leaking the information. Just imagine the outrage if a news outlet was explicitly singling out Jews on suspicion of betraying its interests over a story relating to Israel. This is happening because the propaganda necessary to run cover for an active genocide diverges so wildly from what journalists have been trained to expect from a news outlet that even the fairly establishment-loyal staff of the mainstream press are becoming alarmed by it. The New York Times’ coverage of Israel’s destruction of Gaza has been so blatantly biased in favor of US and Israeli information interests that it’s starting to shake people awake within the outlet itself — people whose unofficial job is to write propaganda for the US-centralized empire. This is one of the weaknesses of the empire: that it depends on ordinary people to turn the gears of its institutions, and those ordinary people have been lied to about what those institutions are and what they do. We saw this illustrated recently in the self-immolation of Aaron Bushnell, who according to his friend Levi Pierpont initially joined the US Air Force to get out there and see the world but was quickly radicalized by what he saw on the inside of the US war machine. We’ve also seen this with the way CNN staff have been feeding information to other outlets about the network’s policies of pro-Israel bias, and with the internal protests and resignations in the Biden administration over Gaza. The western empire cannot operate without (A) ordinary people and (B) nonstop lies and propaganda, and the more overt and ham-fisted (B) becomes the more it’s necessarily going to conflict with its need for (A). The empire is going to struggle to get people dropping its bombs, moving its war machinery, churning out its propaganda and running its government agencies if it keeps acting in ways which dramatically conflict with what westerners have been taught to believe about their society, their media, their government, and their world.

US Officials Expect Israel to Launch Ground Invasion of Lebanon - US officials believe that Israel is planning to launch a ground invasion into Lebanon in late spring or early summer, CNN reported on Thursday. “We are operating in the assumption that an Israeli military operation is in the coming months,” an unnamed senior Biden administration told the outlet. “Not necessarily imminently in the next few weeks but perhaps later this spring. An Israeli military operation is a distinct possibility.”Israel and Hezbollah have been trading heavy fire across the border since October 7, and Israeli officials have been hinting at invading southern Lebanon if Hezbollah doesn’t move back from the border. But a second administration official told CNN that an agreement that only pushes Hezbollah back won’t be enough for Israel.The official said that Israel wants to go into Lebanon to “mow the grass” to destroy some of Hezbollah’s infrastructure. If an invasion doesn’t happen, the official said there would need to be some sort of buffer zone where either troops from Lebanon’s regular army or UN peacekeepers are deployed.A second administration official said that while there is talk about a diplomatic solution, there is a “growing group” within the Israeli government “that says: ‘Hey, let’s just take a shot. Let’s just do it.'” The official said an Israeli ground incursion could lead to a “major, major escalation that we don’t even know the proportions of.”US intelligence has determined that if Israel escalates the situation into a full-blown war, it likely wouldn’t be able to handle fighting Hezbollah and maintaining military operations in Gaza. That means Israel could be hoping for direct US military intervention if things escalate.

Houthi fight extracts heavy cost on Pentagon - More than two months of direct fighting with the Houthis has heavily taxed the U.S. military, which is expending a significant amount of money to take down cheap drones, launch retaliatory strikes and defend against rebels who are, in turn, shooting down pricey American drones. In most cases, the U.S. is launching $2 million defense missiles to stop $2,000 Houthi drones, a discrepancy that the Yemeni rebel group has noted in its statements mocking Washington. The cost of taking on the Houthis is also becoming more apparent as the defiant fighters show no signs of stopping and could lock the U.S. into a long conflict — and it’s throwing the world into a tough spot. “North Yemen is becoming like North Korea when it comes to firing rockets over the seas,” said Mohammed al-Basha, a Yemen and Middle East expert at analyst and consulting company Navanti Group. “It’s going to be a long-term issue for not just us, but for the world.” Since late November, the Houthis have attacked commercial boats and U.S. ships dozens of times, with most of the attacks unsuccessful as the U.S. shoots down drones or anti-ship cruise missiles on a near-daily basis. But they successfully hijacked a ship in November, set a ship on fire in January and sunk a British cargo vessel. To date, the Houthis have hit 15 commercial ships since the fighting began in November, with four of those ships U.S. vessels, according to Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Pete Nguyen. The U.S. in December set up a task force called Operation Prosperity Guardian, which involves a coalition of other allied nations, to patrol the waters of the Red Sea and defend commercial shipping against the Houthis. In January, the U.S. began launching strikes on the Houthis with the U.K., and both nations have continued to target the group in Yemen to knock out military capabilities before they can be used in an attack. The maritime operation is still in effect. Between four and eight coalition ships are in the Red Sea on any given day, according to the Pentagon, but the U.S. is the primary actor taking down Houthi drones and missiles. While playing defense, the U.S. Navy is likely using a Standard Missile-2 surface-to-air missile, which costs more than $2 million, to take down Houthi attacks. It may also be using Standard SM-6 missiles, which cost more than $4 million.

US Officials 'Surprised' by Houthi Military Capabilities - Joe Biden administration officials admitted that six weeks into the undeclared war in Yemen, the US and UK strikes have failed to erode the Houthis military capabilities. The officials said the US is surprised at the Houthis’ military capabilities and that Washington has a limited understanding of how advanced their weapons systems are. On January 11, President Biden ordered the first round of strikes in Yemen. The White House claimed the attack was designed to force the Houthis to end attacks on Israeli-linked shipping. The Houthis, or Ansar Allah, are attacking ships they suspect to have ties with Israel to pressure Tel Aviv to end the genocide in Gaza. Without any Congressional approval, Biden has ordered strikes on Yemen nearly every day. The attacks have not achieved their desired effects as the Houthis have expanded their targets to include US and UK-linked shipping. Last week, missiles fired from Yemen hit multiple ships in the waters off the country’s coast. One ship suffered significant damage and is leaking oil.The recent attacks included the use of new weapons systems for the Houthis, including naval drones. Biden administration officials speaking with CNN told the outlet that the war is not having its desired outcome, that the Houthis’ military capabilities continue to surprise the White House, and that the Pentagon is unaware of the extent of weapons stockpiles in Yemen.“They continue to surprise us. We just don’t have a good idea of what they still have,” said one senior defense official. Multiple officials revealed the issue is that Washington does not know the size of the Houthis’ arms stockpiles and cannot assess if the hundreds of US bombs dropped on Yemen have impacted the Houthis military abilities.

US Coast Guard boards Chinese fishing boats near Kiribati Island - The U.S. Coast Guard said that boats during a patrol against illegal fishing in the exclusive economic zone of the Pacific Islands nation of Kiribati, its officers and local police boarded two Chinese fishing vessels this month but found no issues aboard. On February 23, Reuters reported that Chinese police are working in Kiribati, a nation of 115,000 residents, with uniformed officers involved in community policing and a crime database program. Despite being a small country, Kiribati is considered strategic as it is relatively close to Hawaii and hosts a Japanese satellite tracking station.Washington has announced plans to build an embassy in Kiribati to compete with Beijing.A U.S. Coast Guard Guam spokeswoman said, "The two People's Republic of China (PRC) flagged fishing vessels were boarded as part of routine maritime law enforcement activities to ensure compliance with regulations within the Kiribati Exclusive Economic Zone."No concerns were reported during the boardings, she added."Kiribati officers from the Kiribati Police Maritime Unit and U.S. Coast Guard officers were involved in the boarding operations. This collaboration underscores the partnership between the two nations in upholding maritime law and good governance," she said.In an interview with Reuters, Kiribati's Acting Police Commissioner Eeri Aritiera said that Chinese police on the island work with local police. After Kiribati switched ties from Taiwan to Beijing in 2019, China built a large embassy on the main island, Tarawa.

Outrage Grows Over CDC Inaction On Chinese Biolab In California - Jesalyn Harper, a City of Reedley code enforcement officer, had to determine whether to turn off the power to a secret Chinese biolab in California in order to prevent a fire that inspectors had said was a risk. But with the power off, the freezers’ contents would thaw, with potentially dangerous consequences. The biolab was full of thousands of vials of possible infectious pathogens. She called the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for advice. “It was a very short-lived and frustrating phone call that ended with them hanging up,” said Ms. Harper. She left the power on. That was in March 2023, months after Ms. Harper had first discovered the biolab in December 2022 and alerted authorities. Ms. Harper found inside what was supposed to be an unoccupied warehouse, thousands of vials of potentially infectious agents, including ones labeled as coronavirus, chlamydia, E. coli, streptococcus pneumonia, HIV, hepatitis, herpes, rubella, and malaria. A freezer was labeled “Ebola” and about 1,000 lab mice were kept for experimentation. But there was no single authority that could deal with all of the pathogens, chemicals, and biological hazards and the response became drawn out. It wasn’t until local officials contacted their congress member, Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), asking him to intervene at the federal level, that the CDC responded to California state government and local official requests, according to a congressional report from the Select Committee on the CCP that was published in November 2023. In early May 2023, the CDC spent two days inspecting the biolab, along with several other agencies, including the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Fresno County Public Health, and the California Department of Public Health. Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) told The Epoch Times he is trying to find out from the CDC why the agency initially “looked the other way” as local officials tried to get their attention. “They [CDC] didn’t investigate for months and months and months and months,” Mr. Kiley said. “Why? What are your protocols for responding to credible intelligence of public health risks that are present in our communities? “Why would you not be on top of that right away?” However, when the CDC did visit the biolab, it wouldn’t investigate something unless it had a specific label on it, according to Ms. Harper. The agency created a report for 20 items that were labeled, and those items were sprayed down, disinfected, and put in special waste containers to be incinerated. “CDC officials confirmed that the CDC made this list of pathogens based solely on the labels that were placed on samples. The CDC did not test these samples to assess whether the listed labels were correct or otherwise,” the congressional report states. “According to local officials, they also asked if the CDC could at least test a random sample of the pathogens. The CDC still refused,” the report states. “Despite their limited local budget, local officials then offered to pay the CDC for the entirety of the cost of testing these samples. The CDC still did not and left the site.” Meanwhile, it was becoming apparent that behind the Chinese man who controlled the biolab was a tangled web of Chinese shell companies operating in the dark in several countries.

Kari Lake says if Trump is reelected wars in Ukraine, Gaza ‘are going to wrap up quickly’ -At a press conference in Phoenix, Arizona, GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake claimed that if former President Trump were reelected, he would quickly “wrap up” the war between Russia and Ukraine in Europe and the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. “I think when we get President Trump back in the White House, these wars are going to wrap up quickly,” Lake said, addressing the media. “And so I really believe that we’re not going to have to be continuing to pour money into endless wars because President Trump is about peace.” Lake, the Trump-endorsed candidate, narrowly lost the Arizona gubernatorial race in 2022 to Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). A former TV anchor, Lake has challenged her loss to Hobbs and has maintained that the election was stolen and not secure. She announced she would run for Senate in October and was immediately endorsed by Trump. Lake is currently running against Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) for the seat held by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.). A strong ally of Trump’s, Lake said Thursday that the former president “was on the verge of bringing us world peace” when he was in office. She highlighted the fact that Trump was “wrapping up wars that he never started” and he did not “start a single war.” “And since Joe Biden has been in office, we have all kinds of trouble around the globe. And that’s why we need a strong leader and President Trump, one who puts America first, knows how to deal with world leaders, and I look forward to that,” Lake said. Trump has held his stance that if he were reelected, he would “solve” the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Nearly a year ago, Trump said he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which would be “a very easy negotiation.” Zelensky has pushed back on his claim and has invited Trump on multiple occasions to visit the war’s frontline and show him that it isn’t that simple.

‘Are you kidding me?’: Republicans hammer Austin on secret hospital stay - House Republicans on Thursday lambasted Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin for dodging questions on who was to blame for not notifying senior Biden administration officials of his hospitalizations in December and January. The controversial incident — during which Austin was in the hospital for days to treat complications from an earlier cancer surgery before the White House was made aware — has called into question the line of communication between the Defense Department and the White House as the U.S. supports two major wars. “This is a matter of national security, and someone needs to be held accountable,” House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) said at the start of the panel’s heated hearing, Austin’s first public appearance on Capitol Hill since his hospitalizations. “I find it very concerning that the secretary could be hospitalized for three days without anyone else in the administration even noticing … even while military operations were ongoing in the Middle East,” Rogers continued. “Who will be held accountable for this, this embarrassment?” Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) asked more pointedly, adding he was “surprised” President Biden didn’t call for Austin’s resignation. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who hammered Austin on the timeline of his situation, was in disbelief when he said he could not say when his own staff became aware of his hospitalization. “You don’t know when you told your staff that you were at the hospital? Are you kidding me?” Mace asked. And Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) said even his teenage daughter “knows to tell her supervisor if she’s not going to work,” accusing Austin of poor judgement. “The American people ‚ truck drivers, bartenders — know they have to tell their boss or they get fired. But you’ve held yourself to a different standard, and that’s unacceptable,” Waltz said. Austin entered the hospital the evening of Jan. 1, when he was whisked to Maryland’s Walter Reed National Military Medical Center via ambulance. He stayed for two weeks to treat an infection stemming from a Dec. 22 surgery to treat prostate cancer. But he did not inform the White House or his deputy Kathleen Hicks of the situation until Jan. 4, even though he had transferred his duties as Defense secretary to her Jan. 2. Congress and the public did not learn of Austin’s hospitalization until the late afternoon of Jan. 5. Austin had also not informed the White House, other top Pentagon officials or his staff of his early December cancer diagnosis and subsequent surgery.Congress must stop interstate commerce chaos -A contentious farm bill debate is happening over the balance between state sovereignty and the need for a unified national policy. While Sid Miller champions the cause of state autonomy in a recent op-ed (“Washington, don’t tread on states’ Ag rights“), allowing individual states like California to dictate the terms of agricultural trade across the nation is harmful to farmers and consumers. The Ending Agricultural Trade Suppression (EATS) Act and the Protecting Interstate Commerce for Livestock Producers Act are two proposals that would return sanity to food policy. They would nullify Proposition 12, a ballot measure passed in 2018 by California voters. Proposition 12 creates new mandates for pork farmers and prohibits the sale of pork within California not adhering to these requirements—even if that pork was produced in other states. With approximately 99 percent of pig farmers operating outside California, the measure has far-reaching implications, transforming state-level regulations into a de facto national mandate—a mandate about which these farmers had no vote. The financial impact of complying with Proposition 12 is staggering. The Washington Policy Center reports that the average pork farm would need to invest approximately $3.5 million to make their operations California-compliant. This financial burden translates into increased costs for consumers nationwide, not just in California, as farmers have to change their entire operations to comply. Furthermore, this law disproportionately affects smaller farms, which do not have the resources to overhaul their operations to meet these arbitrary standards, and will lead to increased market consolidation. Here’s the important part: A patchwork of state-specific laws is a recipe for chaos. If each of the 50 states enacted their own arbitrary regulations, the ability to produce and distribute food efficiently and affordably across the nation would be severely compromised. Imagine growing food and having to segregate it into 50 different piles, depending on which state you were selling to. It’s a mess, and an unnecessary one. What next? Can Texas ban veggie burgers? If states can arbitrarily interfere with interstate commerce, the madness won’t stop with food. A blue state like California could pass a law banning the sale of goods unless they were made with union labor. Conversely, a state like Texas could pass a law banning the sale of goods unless they were made from a “right to work” state where union membership is voluntary. The next thing you know, the culture wars become an economic war enveloping every business in the country. Such fragmentation is not necessary. We have a robust federal program to manage food safety. Besides that, food choices have largely been left to consumers. Want free-range, organic, local? Go for it. Want the conventional stuff? Go for that. Allowing voters in urban centers like Los Angeles and San Francisco to dictate agricultural practices in states hundreds or thousands of miles away disrupts the balance of interstate commerce and infringes upon the rights of states to govern their own farmers and ranchers. California’s meat restrictions benefit no one except radical animal rights activists. (They spent $13 million funding Prop 12.) The EATS Act and the Protecting Interstate Commerce for Livestock Producers Act, contrary to being an overreach, serve as necessary countermeasures to ensure that the agriculture policies of one state do not unduly impede or distort interstate commerce across the country.

Oil and gas profits triple under Joe Biden even as industry decries him - Profits for the biggest US oil and gas producers have almost tripled under President Joe Biden, even as the industry berates his administration’s “hostile” policies and warns that a second term would be “disastrous” for the sector. The country’s top-10 listed operators by value, which will finish reporting their 2023 earnings this week, are on track to have amassed combined net income of $313bn in the first three years of theBiden administration, up from $112bn during the same period under Donald Trump.The collective market capitalisation of the group — comprising ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, EOG, Pioneer Natural Resources, Occidental Petroleum, Hess, Devon Energy, Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy — jumped 132 per cent over the period to more than $1.1tn, compared with a 12 per cent drop in Trump’s first three years. Their 2023 profit figures are based on earnings reports except for Devon, due to release fourth-quarter results on Tuesday, whose latest quarterly profit figures are consensus estimates.US production has smashed records in recent years: in November, oil output hit an unprecedented 13.3mn barrels a day, while natural gas topped 105bn cubic feet a day for the first time. The nation overtook Qatar to become the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world last year.The outperformance under Biden underlines the limited role of the White House in dictating the sector’s fortunes. The recent profit bonanza was driven in part by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which pushed up oil and gas prices. A strong rebound in global energy demand from the depths of the Covid-19 shock in 2020 also supported prices. West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, averaged about $80 a barrel during Biden’s first three years compared with $58/b in Trump’s. It also flies in the face of Republican arguments that the Biden administration has suffocated the industry and dire warnings that a Democratic victory in November’s presidential election would put American energy security at risk. “Since his first day in office, President Biden has targeted our domestic energy producers and actively undermined America’s efforts to be energy independent,” said Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson this month. Biden campaigned on the most ambitious climate platform of any US president in history, vowing to lead a “transition from oil”. On taking office he implemented a suite of policies that enraged the industry — from temporarily suspending new leasing for fossil fuel development on public lands to scuppering the Keystone XL pipeline. During his time in office, however, he has dialled back some of that initial rhetoric, urging the industry to drill more to counter high prices at the pump and encouraging liquefied natural gas exports to stem an energy crisis in Europe. “To quell inflation, Biden has supported record production to keep oil and gas prices down, even while favouring greater gas exports to help the EU,” said Paul Bledsoe, a lecturer at American University and former climate adviser to the Bill Clinton administration. “You can’t do better than that from a Democratic president.” Yet the Biden campaign has been reluctant to tout the industry’s success for fear of blowback from the progressive wing of the Democratic party and has been quick to criticise operators. Mike Sommers, chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, said oil and gas producers’ success over the past three years had occurred in spite of the president’s “hostile” policy agenda, which would undermine the nation’s energy security if left unchecked. “While you’re not seeing an impact right now, they are sowing the seeds I think for decreased production into the future. Every week we’re seeing another regulation under this administration that I think could be very detrimental,” said Sommers. This month API sued the Biden administration over its decision to restrict offshore leasing, highlighting a growing industry backlash against its climate and energy policies. Trump and his proxies have made support for the oil and gas industry a core part of his re-election campaign, arguing the sector’s recent success is bedded in the deregulatory agenda of the previous administration. “We know profits trail policy. The energy industry is reaping the benefits of the Trump administration,” said Carla Sands, a prominent Trump donor and former ambassador to Denmark. In reality, analysts said, incumbent presidents have little impact over the short-term performance of the industry. “I think that the consequences of an election in the United States for energy and climate policy are likely to be overstated and overblown.”

McConnell will step down as the Senate Republican leader in November after a record run in the job- (AP) — Mitch McConnell, the longest-serving Senate leader in history who maintained his power in the face of dramatic convulsions in the Republican Party for almost two decades, will step down from that position in November. McConnell, who turned 82 last week, announced his decision Wednesday in the well of the Senate, the chamber where he looked in awe from its back benches in 1985 when he arrived and where he grew increasingly comfortable in the front row seat afforded the party leaders. “One of life’s most underappreciated talents is to know when it’s time to move on to life’s next chapter,” he said. “So I stand before you today ... to say that this will be my last term as Republican leader of the Senate.”His decision punctuates a powerful ideological transition underway in the Republican Party, from Ronald Reagan’s brand of traditional conservatism and strong international alliances, to the fiery, often isolationist populism of former President Donald Trump. McConnell said he plans to serve out his Senate term, which ends in January 2027, “albeit from a different seat in the chamber.” He spoke at times haltingly, his emotions evident, as he looked back on his career. Dozens of members of his staff lined up behind him on the back wall of the chamber, some wiping away tears, as family and friends looked down from the gallery above. Senators from both parties — most of them taken by surprise by the announcement — trickled into the chamber and exchanged hugs and handshakes. President Joe Biden, who has had a productive working relationship with McConnell, said he was sorry to hear the news. “I’ve trusted him and we have a great relationship,” the Democratic president said. “We fight like hell. But he has never, never, never misrepresented anything.” Aides said McConnell’s announcement was unrelated to his health. The Kentucky senator had a concussion from a fall last year and two public episodes where his face briefly froze while he was speaking. “As I have been thinking about when I would deliver some news to the Senate, I always imagined a moment when I had total clarity and peace about the sunset of my work,” McConnell said. “A moment when I am certain I have helped preserve the ideals I so strongly believe. It arrived today.” The senator had been under increasing pressure from the restive, and at times hostile wing of his party that has aligned firmly with Trump. The two have been estranged since December 2020, when McConnell refused to abide Trump’s lie that the election of Democrat Biden as president was the product of fraud. But while McConnell’s critics within the GOP conference had grown louder, their numbers had not grown appreciably larger, a marker of McConnell’s strategic and tactical skill and his ability to understand the needs of his fellow Republican senators. McConnell gave no specific reason for the timing of his decision, which he has been contemplating for months, but he cited the recent death of his wife’s youngest sister as a moment that prompted introspection. “The end of my contributions are closer than I’d prefer,” McConnell said. But his remarks were also light at times as he talked about the arc of his Senate career. He noted that when he arrived in the Senate, “I was just happy if anybody remembered my name.” During his campaign in 1984, when Reagan was visiting Kentucky, the president called him “Mitch O’Donnell.” McConnell endorsed Reagan’s view of America’s role in the world and the senator has persisted in face of opposition, including from Trump, that Congress should include a foreign assistance package that includes $60 billion for Ukraine. “I am unconflicted about the good within our country and the irreplaceable role we play as the leader of the free world,” McConnell said. Against long odds he managed to secure 22 Republican votes for the package now being considered by the House. “Believe me, I know the politics within my party at this particular moment in time. I have many faults. Misunderstanding politics is not one of them,” McConnell said. “That said, I believe more strongly than ever that America’s global leadership is essential to preserving the shining city on a hill that Ronald Reagan discussed. For as long as I am drawing breath on this earth I will defend American exceptionalism.”

McConnell to Step Down as Senate Republican Leader at the End of the Year - The New York Times -Senator Mitch McConnell, the longtime top Senate Republican, said on Wednesday that he would give up his spot as the party’s leader following the November elections, acknowledging that his Reaganite national security views had put him out of step with a party now headed by former President Donald J. Trump. “Believe me, I know the politics within my party at this particular time,” Mr. McConnell, who turned 82 last week, said in a speech on the Senate floor announcing his intentions. “I have many faults. Misunderstanding politics is not one of them.” His decision, reported earlier by The Associated Press, was not a surprise. Mr. McConnell suffered a serious fall last year and experienced some episodes where he momentarily froze in front of the media. He has also faced rising resistance within his ranks for his push to provide continued military assistance to Ukraine as well as his close-to-the-vest leadership style. And his toxic relationship with Mr. Trump, whom he blamed for the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol — after orchestrating his acquittal in an impeachment trial on charges of inciting an insurrection — put him profoundly at odds with the rest of his party. Mr. McConnell had said that he would serve out his full Senate term ending in 2027, but had been more opaque about whether he would try to remain leader after November. His announcement placed an end date on an extraordinary run for a congressional leader known for his legislative prowess and talent for obstructing major Democratic agenda items. Mr. McConnell is revered by many Republicans for thwarting efforts to weaken the influence of money in political campaigns, helping to stack the Supreme Court with conservative justices and attempting — albeit unsuccessfully — to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Democrats regarded him as a chief nemesis for the same reasons, and Mr. McConnell made it clear on Wednesday that he relished that notoriety. “I still have enough gas in my tank to thoroughly disappoint my critics, and I intend to do so with all the enthusiasm with which they’ve become accustomed,” he said on the Senate floor, drawing applause. The remarks followed a White House meeting on Tuesday where he strongly advocated congressional passage of a foreign aid bill that includes more than $60 billion in aid for Ukraine and urged Speaker Mike Johnson to put the proposal on the House floor. Usually reserved in those sessions, Mr. McConnell pushed to speak first on the subject, according to those in attendance, a sign of how seriously he takes the issue. “I believe more strongly than ever that America’s global leadership is essential to preserving the shining city on a hill that Ronald Reagan discussed,” Mr. McConnell said on the Senate floor. Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader, said he anticipated that Mr. McConnell’s decision to step down would free him to push aggressively for the Ukraine aid. “It is probably the case that on his way toward retirement, he’s going to work as hard as he can to make sure that the national security bill gets over the finish line in the House and the Senate to President Biden’s desk,” Mr. Jeffries said in an interview. President Biden, a former Senate colleague who as vice president cut some notable legislative deals with Mr. McConnell during the Obama administration, said he was sorry to see him step aside. “I’ve trusted him and we have a great relationship,” Mr. Biden said. “We fight like hell. But he has never, never, never misrepresented anything.” Senator Chuck Schumer, the New York Democrat and majority leader, credited Mr. McConnell with stepping up in a bipartisan fashion during some difficult national episodes in recent years. He cited Mr. McConnell’s backing of significant pandemic aid, the certification of the 2020 presidential election and the Ukraine assistance, despite their differences on other issues. “During my years in the Senate, Mitch McConnell and I rarely saw eye to eye when it came to our politics or our policy preferences,” Mr. Schumer said in a statement. “But I am very proud that we both came together in the last few years to lead the Senate forward at critical moments when our country needed us.” His departure after the elections will touch off a contest to succeed him. Three senior Republicans — John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas and John Barrasso of Wyoming — have already indicated they will seek the top leadership spot and it is possible that the far-right faction in the Senate will put forward its own candidate as well.

With McConnell stepping down, GOP faces Trump civil war - The race to replace Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) is laying bare the power struggle between pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republicans in the Senate. GOP lawmakers aligned closely with the former president are urging any candidate wanting to succeed McConnell to embrace Trump. Other Republican senators want McConnell’s successor to keep a healthy distance from the controversial former president. McConnell fell out bitterly with former President Trump after the 2020 election and hasn’t spoken to him for more than three years, creating an awkward tension in the party that many GOP senators want to dispel. But Republicans are divided over how aligned their next leader should be with Trump. Some, such as Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) want to elect a new leader who will be a cheerleader for Trump, flying with the former president to rallies around the country. “It’s an imperative,” he said. “We got to get somebody now who’s going to energize our base all across the country for Senate Republicans and also going to be able to get on that airplane with Trump and stand up at a rally and say, ‘Listen, we need President Trump to win,’ and be very truthful about it.” Other Republicans, who point to what they view as Trump’s spotty record endorsing Republican candidates who can actually win Senate seats in November — not to mention Trump’s failure to win re-election in 2020 — want to keep a healthy distance from Trump. Some of those same Republicans are privately alarmed that Trump last month torpedoed a package of Ukraine funding and border security reforms because he wanted to deny President Biden a political win. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said many Republican senators have endorsed Trump out of a sense of political “self-preservation.” But he said many GOP senators privately wish they had a different nominee for president. “If you were to ask individuals: ‘OK, if you could choose anyone to be the Republican nominee,’ I don’t think he would be likely to get the majority of the caucus,” Romney said of Trump. One Republican senator who requested anonymity said the leadership race is becoming a proxy battle between traditional Republican senators who were allied with McConnell and MAGA-aligned conservatives who are sharply critical of McConnell’s leadership and the former GOP establishment in Washington. “There’s that faction of individuals who have really found voice through the MAGA group and the endorsement of Trump,” the senator said. The two leading candidates to replace McConnell — Senate Republican Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) and former Senate GOP Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) — have had an up-and-down relationship with Trump over the years. Both helped enact his agenda as Senate GOP whip — a job Cornyn held for the first two years of Trump’s presidency and which Thune then held during Trump’s second two years in office. Thune clashed with Trump immediately after the 2020 election when he opposed an effort by Trump’s allies to delay the certification of Biden’s victory in Congress. Thune predicted the push to overturn the election results would “go down like a shot dog.” Trump retaliated by threatening that Thune would face a primary challenge in 2022, slamming him as a “Republican in Name Only.” Cornyn has also clashed with Trump, who also called the Texas senator as a “RINO” after he negotiated a bipartisan deal to address gun violence after the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas. Cornyn last year questioned Trump’s ability to beat President Biden in 2024, telling reporters in Texas: “I think President Trump’s time has passed him by.” “I don’t think President Trump understands that when you run in a general election, you have to appeal to voters beyond your base,” he said, expressing concerns that many GOP senators shared at the time. The mixed history that both Thune and Cornyn have with Trump has prompted speculation that a third Republican senator may jump into the race to pick up Trump-allied votes. Trump urged Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) to challenge McConnell as Senate GOP leader after 2022 midterm election. Despite Trump’s support, Scott only collected only 10 votes in the race, losing to McConnell by 27 votes.

Texas governor responds to LGBTQ human rights criticisms: ‘The UN can go pound sand’ Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over the weekend brushed off recent criticism of new state laws that target LGBTQ individuals, as well as claims that such measures violate federal and international human rights law.Responding to a letter sent last month to the United Nations accusing the governor and other state officials of infringing on the rights of LGBTQ Texans through administrative and legislative actions, Abbott told the international nonprofit to stay out of it. “The UN can go pound sand,” Abbott said Sunday on X, formerly Twitter. Abbott similarly told the organization to “pound sand” in 2021, after U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said Texas will need to become less dependent on oil and gas to remain prosperous into 2050.In January, four LGBTQ rights groups in a joint letter of allegation to more than a dozen independent experts, working groups and special rapporteurs at the U.N. said Texas leaders had intentionally targeted the LGBTQ community during the state’s last legislative session.Texas lawmakers in 2023 filed at least 55 bills targeting LGBTQ individuals, according to the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), accounting for roughly 10 percent of anti-LGBTQ legislation filed nationwide last year.The groups’ appeal to the U.N. focuses on seven bills Abbott signed into law in 2023, including measures that ban gender-affirming health care for minors and heavily restrict transgender athletes’ participation in school sports.“Taken individually, the seven pieces of legislation discussed in this submission will disrupt the lives of LGBTQIA+ people of various ages and backgrounds. Put together, the Bills are a systemic attack on the fundamental rights, dignities, and identities of LGBTQIA+ persons that opens the gates for discrimination by both public and private actors,” Equality Texas, GLAAD, the Human Rights Campaign and the ACLU of Texas wrote in the letter.The letter also criticizes Texas officials’ actions leading up to last year’s legislative session, including state Attorney General Ken Paxton’s (R) 2022 opinion equating gender-affirming medical care with child abuse and a subsequent order from Abbott directing state agencies to investigate the parents of transgender minors for child abuse.The letter, which was also signed by The University of Texas at Austin School of Law’s Human Rights Clinic, asks the U.N. to call for the bills to be repealed and encourage both the state and federal governments to pass stronger nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ individuals.

US judge blocks new immigration law in Texas (AP) — A federal judge on Thursday blocked a new Texas law that would give police broad powers to arrest migrants suspected of illegally entering the U.S., dealing a victory to the Biden administration with a broad rejection of Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s immigration enforcement effort.U.S. District Judge David Ezra’s preliminary injunction pausing a law that was set to take effect March 5 came as President Joe Biden and his likely Republican challenger in November, Donald Trump, were visiting Texas’ southern border to discuss immigration.The state attorney general’s office immediately appealed the ruling, according to a statement Thursday.The ruling rebuked Texas’ immigration enforcement effort on multiple fronts, brushing off claims by Republicans about an ongoing “invasion” along the southern border due to record-high illegal crossings. Ezra also said the law violates the Constitution’s supremacy clause, conflicts with federal immigration law, and could hamper U.S. foreign relations and treaty obligations. It is the second time in six months that Ezra has stopped one of Abbott’s border escalations, having also ruled against a floating barrier Texas erected in the Rio Grande.

Biden is trying to fix Trump’s broken immigration system -Both President Biden and former President Trump are visiting the U.S.-Mexico border today, where voters will hear dueling messages about what each believes the other one has done or failed to do. As such, it is important to debunk the gargantuan myth of how successful Trump was on the issue of border security and controlling illegal immigration.Trump was not successful. In fact, he made the issue much worse, decimating the legal immigration system while failing to deter illegal migration.But Democrats need to do a much better job highlighting these failures and must be more proactive about the balanced solutions they support — and Americans prefer — while resisting the urge to lean into enforcement-only MAGA-inspired actions that betray American values andhave failed in the past.According to the Cato Institute, data published late last year shows that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) under Biden “has removed a higher percentage of arrested border crossers in its first two years than the Trump DHS did over its last two years.” Additionally, the data shows migrants were more likely to be released after being arrested at the border under Trump.DHS under Biden is deporting 3.5 times as many people per month as DHS did under Trump. These facts are critical as Americans judge who is trying to do the job of protecting the border and who is covering up complete failures and trying to pass them off as mythical success stories. This data lays out how each administration has fulfilled (or failed to fulfill) its responsibility of border enforcement.Let’s now look at how the Trump administration fared in shoring up our legal immigration system, a critical part of ensuring a well-managed flow of needed workers, and of keeping our commitment to protect those legally seeking asylum and refugee status as they flee persecution. It is also a key part of Republican talking points — if they are to be taken seriously — as they so glowingly tout how much they support “legal immigration.”By the end of 2020, the Trump administration had reduced by more than 80 percent the number of green cards issued and drastically cut refugee arrivals by 92 percent. Some of that can be attributed to the pandemic, but the numbers of green cards and refugees started to decrease the moment Trump came into office. Additionally, he reduced the whole of the legal immigration system by half by July 2020, and he didn’t stop there.So when Biden came into office, the immigration and asylum system was in complete tatters and in desperate need of rebuilding. According to David Bier, associate director of Immigration Studies for the Cato Institute: “Starting in January 2017, our already failing immigration system faced an assault unlike any in American history … For the fist time since the Refugee Act of 1980, an administration unilaterally nullified asylum law to send people back to persecution and torture.” Bier argues that the Biden administration pulled this system back from the brink, increased legal pathways, protected refugees and expanded work permits for migrants to work lawfully.These facts are rarely heard in discussions about this contentions issue. But they are critical for Americans to understand to decide who really has the knowledge, experience and best intentions to lead and reform a broken system — and who wants to further weaponize the issue for personal political gain.

Georgia student’s death emerges as touchstone in immigration battle - The death of a Georgia student has taken center stage in Washington’s battles over immigration, as former President Trump and his allies lean into the issue to attack President Biden and Democrats over the border. Trump, whose signature issue is border security, has repeatedly criticized Biden’s policies over the death of 22-year-old Laken Riley. Riley, a nursing student at Augusta University’s Athens campus, was found dead last Thursday after her roommate reported that she did not return from a run in the wooded area of the University of Georgia campus. A 26-year-old Venezuelan citizen named Jose Ibarra was arrested in connection to her death and charged with murder. U.S. Customs and Border Enforcement has said Ibarra entered the country illegally in September 2022 near El Paso, Texas, from Mexico and was released for further processing after being detained. “We have a new category of migrant crime, and it’s going to be more severe than violent crime and crime as we know it,” Trump said during his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference last week. Democrats have criticized Republicans for linking Riley’s death to Biden’s handling of the border, arguing that the issues of immigration and crime should not be conflated. A series of Cato Institute papers have found that immigrants – including undocumented immigrants – commit murders at a lower rate than native-born Americans. Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) said a “sense of outrage” is normal following violent crime, but it shouldn’t change broader policy. “I think the important thing to focus on is any one instance shouldn’t shape our overall immigration policy, which has so many different facets, including economic choices about what workers to allow and how to create prosperity in America,” she said during an interview on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront” on Monday.

Hunter Biden acknowledged Joe was 'the big guy' in $5M China deal --At long last, first son Hunter Biden affirmed during his Wednesday impeachment inquiry deposition that his father, Joe, was “the big guy” referenced in an email about a business deal with a Chinese state-linked energy firm that yielded millions for Biden family members and other associates, more than three years after The Post broke the story — but rejected the notion that the president was ever penciled in for a 10% stake.The deposition represents the first time the 54-year-old Hunter has admitted that his former business partner James Gilliar was referring to Joe Biden when he raised the prospect on May 13, 2017, of the first son holding a 10% stake in the lucrative joint venture involving CEFC China Energy “for the big guy.” “I truly don’t know what the hell that James was talking about,” the first son said when asked about the reference, according to a transcript released Thursday.“All I know is … what actually happened.”The email, found on Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop, was first reported by The Post in October 2020 as part of a bombshell series of reports on the first son’s influence-peddling schemes.Hunter Biden and his allies had long insisted that information found on the laptop either was not his or had been manipulated by bad actors — with dozens of former intelligence officials insisting the trove bore the hallmarks of Russian election interference.Later in his response, Hunter said that Gilliar’s suggestion of his dad getting a stake was a “pie in the sky idea” with Biden leaving public life after eight years as Barack Obama’s vice president.“Like, ‘Joe Biden’s out of the office. Maybe we’ll be able to get him involved,'” the first son said.“Remember, again, is that Joe Biden, for first time in 48 years, is not an elected official and is not seeking office. And so James is probably, like, ‘Wow, wouldn’t be great if a former Vice President could be in our business together?'”Hunter claimed to his interrogators that if he had seen the email from Gilliar at the time, “I would have picked up the phone and said, ‘You’re out of your mind.'”“I shut it down, and the evidence of me shutting it down is the actual things you have as evidence,” the younger Biden said.“Remember that. The agreement, the executed agreement, the executed agreement to create a company that was never operated, that’s what happened. That’s the evidence you have … Nothing to do with my dad, zero.”The president lashed out at a Post reporter in June 2023 when pressed about being repeatedly referred to as “the big guy,” a moniker that his brother Frank also used in addition to several of Hunter’s associates.

Highlights from the transcript of Hunter Biden’s closed-door interview with House Republicans | CNN Politics -Hunter Biden unequivocally denied that his father was ever involved in his business dealings or took any government actions on his behalf during a roughly six-hour deposition Wednesday where President Joe Biden’s son frequently clashed with the Republicans questioning him.House Republicans’ impeachment inquiry is built upon the still-unproven notion that Joe Biden abused his powers as vice president to enrich himself and his family, through Hunter Biden’s vast overseas business portfolio.Hunter Biden accused Republicans of embracing conspiracy theories to target his father, while needling them for failing to investigate another family member of a president – Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner – for his foreign business dealings.“All I know is this: My father was never involved in any of my business, ever,” Hunter Biden said, according to a transcript of the interview released Thursday evening. “Never received a cent from anybody or never benefited in any way. Never took any actions on behalf in any way. And I can absolutely, 100% state, that is not just in my case but in every family member’s case.” House Oversight Chairman James Comer, a Kentucky Republican, has said that the next step in the GOP impeachment inquiry – which is facing a heavy dose of skepticism from some corners of the House GOP conference – will be a public hearing with Hunter Biden. Wednesday’s transcript offered a potential preview of how contentious such a hearing would be. Here are key takeaways from Hunter Biden’s deposition:Hunter Biden testified that he was “out of my mind” and “drunk and probably high” when he sent a WhatsApp message to a Chinese associate in 2017 stating that he was “sitting here with my father.” Hunter Biden told lawmakers during his closed-door deposition Wednesday that his father was not actually sitting next to him, even as he insisted he had no recollection of sending the message in the first place.“My father was not sitting next to me. My father had no awareness. My father had no awareness of the business that I was doing. My father never benefited from any of the business that I was doing,” Hunter Biden said, according to the interview transcript.Hunter Biden also noted the message was sent to the wrong recipient – to someone who shares the same name last “Zhao” and was not connected to the CEFC – which Hunter said “is the best indication of how out of my mind I was at this moment in time.”During a heated moment in his deposition, Hunter Biden challenged GOP lawmakers to prove that he sent money to his father other than a small car loan repayment.“I appreciate the job that you have. I truly do. I appreciate the job that you all have. But I am telling you this: is that if you can show me where any money that I’ve ever had went to my father, other than, for instance, the repayment of the $1,300 for a loan for a truck – OK?” Hunter Biden said.The quip was sparked by a comment from an unidentified questioner, according to the transcript, who accused Hunter of having “ripped off your business partner.” Hunter Biden was referring to a repaid car loan that Republicans previously claimed could have been evidence of payments from overseas business dealings flowing from Hunter up to his father. Asked about a 2017 email from a business associate suggesting that Joe Biden, then a private citizen, should have a financial stake in a business agreement – that Hunter Biden should hold money “for the big guy” – Hunter Biden said that was “pie in the sky.” “All I know is that what was executed in the agreement, and the agreement didn’t have anything to do with my father,” Hunter Biden said. Under sympathetic questioning from House Democrats, Hunter Biden explained how he separates his business activities from his relationship with his father, who became a senator when he was 2 years old.“It’s just a natural family relationship. I was a professional adult, and I had my business, and my dad had his business,” Hunter Biden said.“There was one thing that we – that I was fully aware of my entire life, is that my dad was an official of the United States government, and there were very bright lines that I abided to and that I was very, very cognizant of,” he continued. “And I made certain that I never engaged with my father in asking him to do anything on my behalf or on behalf of any client of mine.”However, there are indications that Hunter Biden did blur these lines at times. There isn’t evidence supporting the GOP claims that Joe Biden was in business with his father, or that he abused his government positions to enrich his family. But there are a few examples where Hunter Biden introduced business partners to his father, or when he invoked his father’s name to close potential deals.

Hunter Biden gives House Republicans the rebuttal they didn’t want - Hunter Biden’s appearance in front of investigators and members of the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees unfolded a bit like a Bruce Lee movie. Republican legislators and interviewers challenging the president’s son on the House majority’s behalf would throw out an allegation, often one that’s been worn smooth after tumbling around in the right-wing media universe for the past year or two. And Biden would invariably swat it away, stripping off the layers of innuendo that had been applied by Donald Trump and Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) or Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) or any of myriad Fox News commentators. This included epic battles against well-known foes, like an exchange between Hunter Biden and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), or repeated, extended back-and-forth with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.). But at no point was a question left unanswered — including through an invocation of the Fifth Amendment — or, to an objective observer, left answered with obvious incompletion. The discussion was centered on the Republican effort in the ongoing impeachment inquiry to demonstrate that President Biden had benefited financially from Hunter Biden’s business endeavors — and, they hoped, that the elder Biden had used his position as vice president to that end. They were unsuccessful in making that case from the hearing’s first moments. “I did not involve my father in my business,” Hunter Biden said in his opening comments, “not while I was a practicing lawyer, not in my investments or transactions, domestic or international, not as a board member, and not as an artist, never.” His position did not diverge from that at any point; instead, he frequently invoked this same claim over and over again as a means of cutting off one of the familiar lines of inquiry with which he was presented. The effect, in reading a transcript of Wednesday’s hours-long interaction, is of a man repeatedly trying to get his accusers to see a forest instead of a smattering of trees. Hunter Biden’s testimony centered heavily on two themes. First, the closeness of his family, having been drawn together by the tragic deaths of his mother and, later, his brother. This is why he always took his father’s calls, he said, and why he would always welcome his father to join him at dinners. “I can't count the number of times my dad stopped to have dinner with me and my family,” he testified — including at a cafe that was situated between the White House and the vice-presidential residence. The other was that Joe Biden was a career politician. “My dad has been a United States Senator since I was 2 years old,” Biden said at one point. “My whole life has been this.” His point? That glad-handing strangers and dropping into events was part of his father's daily life — and therefore his own. At one point, a questioner pressed Biden to admit that there was a suspicious pattern in his father having met people with whom Hunter Biden or his partners ended up doing business. Biden rejected that framing. “The pattern I see is that you literally have no evidence whatsoever of any corruption on the part of my father,” he said. “And therefore what you're trying to do is you're trying to make every single thing in business that I was ever involved in somehow corrupt.”

White House demands Fox News retract coverage of bribery allegations against Hunter Biden, president --The White House is demanding Fox News retract its coverage of bribery allegations against President Biden’s son, Hunter, in the wake of the arrest of a key figure in the accusations against the Biden family. Calling the allegations against Hunter Biden “false,” White House special assistant to the president Ian Sams blasted the network for covering claims of bribery against the president’s son both online and over its airwaves “aggressively.” “I would cite the number of times Jesse Watters and Sean Hannity promoted this allegation and made false statements about President Biden on primetime television throughout this time period, but the footnote citations would fill multiple pages,” Sams wrote in his letter to Fox News top brass, which was obtained Thursday by The Hill. “As you of course now know, the source of this allegation has been federally indicted for making the whole thing up,” Sams continued. “Despite this, Fox has taken no steps to retract, correct, or update its reporting on this false allegation from 2023.” The FBI informant at the center of the GOP’s allegations against Biden, Alexander Smirnov, was indicted Feb. 14 by federal authorities, who say his claims about Biden came from Russian intelligence personnel. Top Stories from The Hill House passes short-term funding bill to avert shutdown Head of Freedom Caucus bashes funding deal, vows shutdown fight Ex-divorce lawyer’s testimony complicates Willis, Wade controversy E. Jean Carroll expresses ‘very serious concerns’ Trump won’t pay $83M judgment In a statement to The Hill, a Fox News spokesperson said: “Fox News Media has reported on all key developments since the announcement that Alexander Smirnov was charged with lying to the FBI, featuring the story prominently.” “We will continue to report on developments in all aspects of the ongoing investigations, hearings, and trials,” the spokesperson said. House Republicans are centering their impeachment push against President Biden on his son’s foreign business dealings, which the White House has repeatedly dismissed as partisan and lacking merit.

Jim Jordan defends Kushner after Hunter Biden raises Saudi deals -- House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) defended former President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner on Thursday after Hunter Biden, during testimony with House lawmakers, raised questions about his foreign dealings. Jordan said the scrutiny of Kushner, who was also an adviser to Trump, was “ridiculous.” “The idea that Jared Kushner did something wrong is ridiculous,” Jordan told Newsmax’s Eric Bolling during a Wednesday night appearance on “The Balance.” “I mean, the Trump family has been investigated more than any family on the planet, and what they’ve attempted to do to President Trump and been doing to President Trump over the last seven years is unbelievable,” Jordan said. Hunter Biden appeared for a closed-door deposition Wednesday, where he was grilled by Republicans about his foreign business deals. During the process, the president’s son flipped the question back on the GOP interrogators. “He drew the distinction between what he has done in a business world with independent businessmen, versus foreign governments, which he did not do any business with — unlike Jared Kushner,” Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) said Wednesday during a break in the testimony. During his time in the Trump White House, Kushner oversaw Middle East policy. He secured a $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia six months after leaving his Oval Office post, a deal that raised questions. The scrutiny intensified after a 2022 New York Times report detailed how the Saudi sovereign’s advisory panel was not supportive of investing in Kushner’s private equity firm, pointing to “the inexperience of the … management.” The doubts were quashed by a bigger advisory board led by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, an ally of the Trump administration.

Over 100,000 Vote 'Uncommitted' in Michigan Primary to Send Message to Biden Over Support for Gaza Slaughter - Over 100,000 people voted “uncommitted” in the Michigan Democratic primary to send a message to President Biden over his unconditional support for the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.Biden still received 640,000 votes, over 80%, but 100,000 votes could make a big difference in the November presidential election since Michigan is a swing state. A new campaign called Listen to Michigan urged voters to withhold their support for Biden until he calls for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza. A spokesman for the campaign said the over 100,000 votes exceeded expectations.“We have led a movement that is far exceeding expectations, using the ballot box to urge America to stop killing our families,” said spokesman and Democratic strategist Abbas Alawieh, according to NPR. “That’s all we’re asking for. Just stop killing our families.”Alawieh made the comments at a watch party in Dearborn, Michigan, where the majority of residents are of Middle Eastern and North African descent. Dearborn Mayor Abdullah Hammoud supports the campaign and said the purpose is to “bring the morality back to this country.” Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), who is of Palestinian descent, took part in the campaign and said she was “proud” to vote uncommitted. “When 74 percent of Democrats in Michigan support a ceasefire, yet President Biden is not hearing us, this is the way we can use our democracy to say ‘listen.’ Listen to Michigan,” she said.

Only way Democrats can deal with Biden’s aging: Hide the candidate until November I have worked for politicians around the world in their early 30s, and for others in their 80s. In my experience, voters don’t care about age per se. They do care about the ability of a leader to do his job. It is therefore important for a presidential candidate to show that he can do the job. A classic inoculation strategy for an elder leader would be to show up in public and act like a much younger person. Surround him with young people and get him making claims and talking about the future. It is far too late for such a strategy to work for President Biden. As an incumbent president with a recent history of several senior moments, public opinion about him is already well-defined. The recent report from Robert Hur, which essentially concluded that he is not mentally sharp enough to stand trial for mishandling classified documents, only makes matters worse. If voters have to choose between believing what they see in Biden with their own eyes, and what they are being told by his allies to believe, one can guess which they will choose. Consider how Biden angrily rebutted Hur’s description of himself as absent-minded, only to confirm it himself minutes later by confusing the president from Mexico with the one from Egypt. Democratic pundits who decry the prosecutor as partisan don’t do the president any favors, because they themselves are, obviously, partisan. Biden says that he has achieved so much during his first term and that this proves the age issue is irrelevant. I personally agree that he has achieved a lot under difficult circumstances. But I’m afraid that this argument will not work. Voters don’t perceive Biden’s administration as particularly effective. This is why, on just about every major issue, voters trust Trump more than Biden. And whatever poll you consult, an overwhelming majority thinks that the country is headed in the wrong direction. The only way Democrats can deal with this is to severely limit Biden’s public exposure. Have him do only short speeches, stick to the script, conduct few planned events, limit reporters’ access. Keep press conferences to a minimum, so as to limit the number of gaffes and mental glitches. Four years ago, Joe Biden performed best in the polls when he was in his basement in Delaware during the months of the COVID pandemic lockdown. Swing voters who wanted to get rid of Donald Trump were thus given the freedom to create in their own minds whatever image of Biden they wanted. This time around, however, Biden is no longer the challenger. He no longer has the benefit of the doubt on his side. Swing voters need reassurance. This is why I would schedule just a few carefully designed high-profile events. Swing voters who are scared of Trump are looking for permission, for an excuse to vote for Biden despite his problems. The purpose of these events is to give them that permission. These events have to be well-orchestrated, scripted and rehearsed. The president needs to be well-rested and prepared for them. A first opportunity for this is the upcoming State of the Union Speech, for which Biden should practice repeatedly. The last such opportunity will probably be his address at the Democratic convention at the end of summer. I remember when the ailing president of Russia, Boris Yeltsin, ran for reelection in the 1990s. When planning was underway to celebrate Yeltsin’s reelection, his handlers first planned for a triumphal event. As the day came nearer, however, they realized that the president’s health would not allow for such a grand and long ceremony. In the end, Yeltsin spoke for all of 45 seconds at this own inauguration. Aging is the elephant in the room in 2024. It is the main obstacle standing in the way of Biden beating Trump. You can’t effectively deal with it by pretending it isn’t there.

Telling Joe Biden he is too old to drive - It was a difficult conversation, but it was a message that had to be delivered by someone who cared. I had to tell my elderly father that after over 65 years of driving, he could no longer drive a car. His unsteadiness not only created risks for him but endangered others on the road. While I respected his desire to manage his own life, I realized that it would be irresponsible of me not to intervene. And when he complained that if he couldn’t drive he wouldn’t be able to get around, I had to remind him of the availability of taxis and public transportation as an alternative. The Democratic leadership is in a similar situation: It’s become irresponsible of them not to confront President Joe Biden to tell him that he too should no longer attempt to drive for the next five years. Only in his case it is not a car he should no longer drive, but the country. Democrats can remind Biden that, like my father, he has alternatives. If he is no longer a candidate, he could become a more effective campaigner against Trump and the danger he poses to our country and Biden’s national security agenda. Indeed, in this context, Biden’s image as an “elderly” statesman who has devoted his life to public service, advocating for what is best for the country and not himself, is arguably a positive. The rationale for Democratic leaders to deliver this message is not that Biden is incapable of being president. I have actively supported Joe Biden in each of his three runs for the presidency since 1987. And if he remains in the race, I would support him today. He has navigated extraordinary domestic and international challenges, delivered major legislative accomplishments that will position the country for the future and, while the battle against inflation is not over, has captained the most impressive post-Covid economic recovery of any advanced country.Biden’s problem is both obvious and well reported. Forget about Republicans, the overwhelming majority of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents do not want him to run. They just think he is too old to be elected for another term. Indeed, the reason that Special Counsel Robert Hur’s characterization of Biden as “a sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” has created such a problem for him is precisely because it verbalizes what so many Democrats already believe to be the case. And while inflation may continue to go down, and the politics of the border may improve over the coming months, President Biden will not get any younger.

If age forces Joe Biden to stand down, who will step up? --A damning critique by Republican special counsel Robert Hur has brought President Biden’sage and declining faculties into sharp focus. After interviewing Biden, Hur described him as as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory” who had “diminished faculties in advancing age.” While comparatively healthy for an 81-year-old man, Biden’s long-term speech impediments and memory losses are worrying many Americans. If Biden’s age-related issues were to accelerate rapidly — though let’s be clear, there is no reason to indicate that they will — he would be forced to withdraw his nomination for the 2024 U.S. presidential race. So, who are the main Democrats ready to step up?

• Gretchen Whitmer (52) The popular Michigan governor is a pragmatist from the Rust Belt. She advocates for women’s health care and Medicaid expansion. While she works with local Republicans on a balanced state budget, and has passed 900 bipartisan bills, she has repeatedly denied tax cuts for Michiganians to relieve rising living costs. When asked about her presidential aspirations, Whitmer has said “I intend to serve four years as governor.” But intending to do something is not the same as saying you don’t want to do it.
• Dean Phillips (55) Phillips has already thrown his hat into the ring. He is a Jewish congressman from the idiosyncratic Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party. His birth father died in the Vietnam War and his grandmother was famous advice columnist Dear Abby. Phillips strongly believes interm limits for the Senate and the Supreme Court. He is a Biden centrist, but has recently said about Biden, “voters want competition not a coronation.”
• Jared Polis (48) Polis is a highly experienced politician who gets results. The Colorado gay billionaire does not back down on hard progressive issues, and has improved infrastructure and internet access across his state. However, Colorado has high drug use and mental health issues, though the governor has tried to introduce programs to combat them. Polis has demurred when asked if he would run for president, yet one of his companies registered the domain nameJaredPolisforPresident.com.
• Gavin Newsom (56) Newsom is a centrist Democrat. He upset many progressives when he pushed to keep open the state’s last nuclear plant and championed controversial programs to force unhoused people into mental health and substance abuse treatment. He gamely debates on Fox News, where any contentious remark he makes is greatly magnified. However, he is not very popular outside of California. Publicly he denies he will seek the presidency, but privately he has long harboredthat ambition.
• Kamala Harris (59) Harris is internationally well-recognised. Her stance on abortion rights is popular with women of all political persuasions. Domestically Harris has been steady, but at crucial times hesitant. Biden has allegedly called her “a work in progress,” supposedly because of her inability to build consensus even within her own party. Nevertheless, she would be expected to announce her candidacy. In a mix-and-match candidacy that involves either (or both) a woman with a man or a white person with a person of color, Harris is in the mix.
• Andy Beshear (age 46) From a good ol’ Southern political family, Beshaer is a moderate Democrat who works well with Republicans. He is sure to bring in votes from the flyover states. Other advantages are that he has a strong anti-pharma record and supports reforms to health care and pensions. On the other hand, Democratic progressives may rail against his relative conservatism. Beshear has publicly said to no to a nomination, but Kentucky Democrats cite him as a “dark horse” contender.
• Wes Moore (45) The war veteran turned Maryland governor is strong on social issues such as housing andeducation. The lack of a national profile hinders him, and some will view him as just another smooth-talking, urban elitist. He has yet to prove himself in combatting the ongoing crime issues of the state’s largest city, Baltimore. Moore has not declared interest in a presidential run, but DNC insiders are already talking about him as a future candidate.

All these potential candidates will run on a growing economy, combating dictatorships in China and Russia, and human rights, particularly those of women and gay people.

Hutchinson says Trump wants to wrap up nomination soon ‘because he knows the storm clouds are gathering over him’ --More Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) said Sunday he thinks former President Trump wants to wrap up the nominating process quickly because he sees certain warning signs looming that could threaten his path to the candidacy. In an interview with MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart, Hutchinson mentioned as potential threats the multiple court cases against Trump, the financial fines and fees he must pay, and the nearly 40 percent of South Carolina GOP voters who voted for Haley. “I think what Donald Trump is trying to do is to wrap this nomination up very quickly, because he knows the storm clouds are gathering over him,” Hutchinson said. Hutchinson, who suspended his own campaign for president last month and endorsed Haley, pointed to the party convention as an opportunity to emerge with a different candidate. Asked whether he would support Trump if Haley dropped out of the race, Hutchinson said, “Well, I’m not going to support a convicted felon.” “And of course that remains to be seen. So let’s see who comes out of the Republican convention. It’s not done until it’s done,” Hutchinson responded, adding later, “Let’s wait and see who comes out of the convention. I’m not going to support a convicted felon.”

McConnell team in talks with Trump camp about possible endorsement -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) could be moving closer to endorsing former President Trump, a nod from an influential detractor that would serve as a powerful message for Trump.Two sources familiar with the situation told The Hill that top lieutenants for the two GOP behemoths — Chris LaCivita, Trump’s campaign manager; and Josh Holmes, McConnell’s longtime top political hand — have held discussions in recent weeks about possibly thawing the freeze in their relationship and paving the way for McConnell to back Trump. “We’ve reached the part of the primary where the party is coming together,” one source familiar with the discussions said. “The absolute worst thing that can happen to this country is electing Joe Biden for four more years, and you can expect to coalesce around that point over the next nine months,” the source continued. The New York Times was the first to report the discussions.Talk of McConnell backing Trump comes on the heels of Trump’s win in the South Carolina primary, moving him another step closer to the GOP nomination.Much of the Senate GOP has already gotten behind the ex-president in recent months. More than two-thirds of Senate Republicans have officially endorsed Trump, including a number of members who are allies with McConnell.Sen. John Thune (S.D.), the No. 2 Senate Republican, officially threw his weight behind Trump over the weekend, making McConnell one of only two members of leadership not to back the president. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is the only other holdout. In addition, all three of those considered potential successors to McConnell — Thune, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) — have endorsed Trump’s campaign. McConnell has attempted to sidestep discussions about the 2024 campaign in public. He has said he would support the eventual Republican nominee Trump said earlier this month that he had “heard” McConnell wanted to back him.“I think Mitch McConnell wants to endorse me. That’s what I hear,” he said in an interview. “I have more than half of the Republicans … have already endorsed me, and the rest are coming in.” “I don’t know if he’s going to endorse me, I just heard he wants to endorse me,” he said. “Everybody’s getting in line, they’re all getting on board.”

Ex-sheriff's deputy who attacked police during Capitol riot is sentenced to nearly 6 years in prison (AP) — A man who was employed as a Tennessee sheriff’s deputy when he assaulted police officers protecting the U.S. Capitol from a mob of Donald Trump supporters was sentenced on Thursday to nearly six years in prison.Ronald Colton McAbee wore a bulletproof vest with two patches — one that said “SHERIFF” and another bearing an insignia for the Three Percenters militia movement — when he stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6. 2021.During a melee on the Capitol’s Lower West Terrace, McAbee dragged an officer away from a police line and punched another officer who tried to stop him.McAbee said he never intended to “strike fear or be part of the chaos” on Jan. 6. Neither officer assaulted by McAbee attended his sentencing.

Supreme Court will hear Donald Trump immunity arguments in April (AP) — The Supreme Court on Wednesday agreed to decide whether former President Donald Trump can be prosecuted on charges he interfered with the 2020 election, calling into question whether his case could go to trial before the November election. While the court set a course for a quick resolution, it maintained a hold on preparations for a trial focused on Trump’s efforts to overturn his election loss. The court will hear arguments in late April, with a decision likely no later than the end of June. That timetable is much faster than usual, but assuming the justices deny Trump’s immunity bid, it’s not clear whether a trial can be scheduled and concluded before the November election. Early voting in some states will begin in September. The court’s decision to intervene in a second major Trump case this term, along with the dispute over whether he is barred from being president again because of his actions following the 2020 election, underscores the direct role the justices will have in the outcome of the election. Trump’s lawyers have sought to put off a trial until after the election. In the end, the timing of a possible trial could come down to how quickly the justices rule. They have shown they can act fast, issuing a decision in the Watergate tapes case in 1974 just 16 days after hearing arguments. The decision in Bush v. Gore came the day after arguments in December 2000. By taking up the legally untested question now, the justices have created a scenario of uncertainty that special counsel Jack Smith had sought to avoid when he first asked the high court in December to immediately intervene. In his latest court filing, Smith had suggested arguments a full month earlier than the late April timeframe. Trump wrote on Truth Social that legal scholars “are extremely thankful” the court stepped in to decide on immunity. “Presidents will always be concerned, and even paralyzed, by the prospect of wrongful prosecution and retaliation after they leave office,” he wrote.

"We Don't Do That Here": Former NY Times Editor Blasts The "Gray Lady" For Bias And Activism by Jonathan Turley -- Former New York Times editor Adam Rubenstein has a lengthy essay at The Atlantic that pulls back the curtain on the newspaper and its alleged bias in its coverage. The essay follows similar pieces from former editors and writers that range from Bari Weiss to Rubenstein’s former colleague James Bennet. The essay describes a similar work environment where even his passing reference to liking Chik-Fil-A sandwiches led to a condemnation of shocked colleagues.An opinion-section editor, Rubenstein was involved in the controversy over publishing Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R., Ark.) op-ed where he argued for the possible use of national guard to quell violent riots around the White House.It was one of the lowest points in the history of modern American journalism. Cotton was calling for the use of the troops to restore order in Washington after days of rioting around the White House. While Congress would “call in the troops” six months later to quell the rioting at the Capitol on January 6th, New York Times reporters and columnists called the column historically inaccurate and politically inciteful. Reporters insisted that Cotton was even endangering them by suggesting the use of troops and insisted that the newspaper cannot feature people who advocate political violence. One year later, the New York Times published a column by an academic who had previously declared that there is nothing wrong with murdering conservatives and Republicans.Rubenstein noted:On January 6, 2021, few people at The New York Times remarked on the fact that liberals were cheering on the deployment of National Guardsmen to stop rioting at the Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., the very thing Tom Cotton had advocated.Instead, he describes an environment in which the staff routinely rejected conservative viewpoints, subjected conservatives to added demands and editing, and faced staff opposition to working on such pieces. He noted:Being a conservative—or at least being considered one—at the Times was a strange experience. I often found myself asking questions like “Doesn’t all of this talk of ‘voter suppression’ on the left sound similar to charges of ‘voter fraud’ on the right?” only to realize how unwelcome such questions were. By asking, I’d revealed that I wasn’t on the same team as my colleagues, that I didn’t accept as an article of faith the liberal premise that voter suppression was a grave threat to liberal democracy while voter fraud was entirely fake news.Or take the Hunter Biden laptop story: Was it truly “unsubstantiated,” as the paper kept saying? At the time, it had been substantiated, however unusually, by Rudy Giuliani. Many of my colleagues were clearly worried that lending credence to the laptop story could hurt the electoral prospects of Joe Biden and the Democrats. But starting from a place of party politics and assessing how a particular story could affect an election isn’t journalism. Nor is a vague unease with difficult subjects. “The state of Israel makes me very uncomfortable,” a colleague once told me. This was something I was used to hearing from young progressives on college campuses, but not at work.What emerges from the interview is all-too-familiar to many of us on this blog. I have long been a critic of what I called “advocacy journalism” as it began to emerge in journalism schools. These schools encourage students to use their “lived expertise” and to “leave[] neutrality behind.” Instead, of neutrality, they are pushing “solidarity [as] ‘a commitment to social justice that translates into action.’” For example, we previously discussed the release of the results of interviews with over 75 media leaders by former executive editor for The Washington Post Leonard Downie Jr. and former CBS News President Andrew Heyward. They concluded that objectivity is now considered reactionary and even harmful. Emilio Garcia-Ruiz, editor-in-chief at the San Francisco Chronicle said it plainly: “Objectivity has got to go.” Saying that “Objectivity has got to go” is, of course, liberating. You can dispense with the necessities of neutrality and balance. You can cater to your “base” like columnists and opinion writers. Sharing the opposing view is now dismissed as “bothsidesism.” Done. No need to give credence to opposing views. It is a familiar reality for those of us in higher education, which has been increasingly intolerant of opposing or dissenting views.

Trump appeals $454M New York fraud ruling - Former President Trump on Monday appealed a judge’s decision ordering him to pay more than $450 million in the New York attorney general’s sprawling civil fraud case against his business empire. Judge Arthur Engoron’s decision earlier this month marked a stunning legal and financial blow to the former president, barring him from serving in a leadership role in any New York business for three years and ordering independent officials to monitor Trump’s companies. The decision followed a months-long trial after which the judge determined Trump and top executives for years conspired to alter his net worth to receive tax and insurance benefits. Trump’s appeal was expected because he and his lawyers have attacked the judge’s ruling as politically motivated and a “manifest injustice” for days. Trump has denied any wrongdoing. “We trust that the Appellate Division will overturn this egregious fine and take the necessary steps to restore the public faith in New York’s legal system,” Trump attorney Alina Habba said in a statement. With Trump’s notice of appeal formally filed, the case will head to the First Judicial Department Appellate Division, where the former president will seek to get the nine-figure fine and the other penalties tossed. The New York attorney general’s office declined to comment. The appeal comes after Trump’s attorneys sought to delay enforcement of the $454 million sum by 30 days to “protect” the former president’s appellate rights. Engoron last week declined to do so. “You have failed to explain, much less justify, any basis for a stay,” Engoron responded to the request. “I am confident that the Appellate Division will protect your appellate rights.” Trump is also responsible for paying additional interest on the stunning fine if it is upheld. The clock began when Engoron entered judgment and has been climbing by tens of thousands of dollars per day. New York Attorney Letitia James (D) has needled the former president by posting the updated amount each day on X, formerly known as Twitter.While Engoron’s ruling won’t shutter Trump’s company, it could significantly shake up its organization and leave the namesake family business without a Trump at its helm for the first time. Beyond the penalties against Trump, his two adult sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., are banned from serving in leadership roles in New York businesses for two years. The judge also expanded the authority of an independent monitor to oversee the Trump Organization’s finances and imposed fines against Trump’s sons and top company executives.

Illinois Judge Removes Trump From Primary Ballot - Ahead of a Supreme Court ruling on whether former President Donald Trump can be disqualified as a candidate by individual states under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, an Illinois judge ruled President Trump ineligible for the ballot.Cook County Circuit Court Judge Tracie Porter, following other jurisdictions, stayed her order to remove the former president pending an appeal which he has, and which the Supreme Court has said it will hear. The ruling came a week after the judge heard arguments regarding Illinois statutes.“This Order is stayed until March 1, 2024 in anticipation of an appeal to the Illinois Appellate Court, First District, or the Illinois Supreme Court. This Order is further stayed if the United States Supreme Court in Anderson v. Griswold enters a decision inconsistent with this Order,” the ruling reads.On Feb. 8, the day the Supreme Court heard arguments regarding Colorado’s disqualification of President Trump, mail-in ballots were sent out in Illinois with President Trump’s name on them. This puts the state in a position to potentially have to not count votes cast for him.If the order is not stayed and reversed, the state elections board will be tasked with removing “Donald J. Trump from the ballot for the General Primary Election on March 19, 2024, or cause any votes cast for him to be suppressed, according to the procedures within their administrative authority.”Much of the judge’s opinion and order dealt with state law and whether the state elections board had the jurisdiction to rule on this matter.The judge found that Illinois law allowed petitioners to bring this kind of a challenge and that President Trump was “disqualified by engaging in insurrection,” noting that this finding was echoed by the hearing officer of the state election board and the Colorado Supreme Court.“This Court shares the Colorado Supreme Court’s sentiments that did not reach its conclusions lightly. This Court also realizes the magnitude of this decision and it (sic) impact on the upcoming primary Illinois elections,” the order reads.

Trump appeals judge's decision to remove his name from Illinois primary ballot (AP) — Attorneys for former President Donald Trump have appealed a Cook County judge’s decision ordering election officials to remove the Republican’s name from Illinois’ March 19 primary ballot.The appeal, filed minutes before midnight Thursday, came hours after Judge Tracie Porter issued her decision. She placed a hold on it until Friday to allow the expected appeal.A group of Illinois voters is trying to remove Trump from the primary ballot over his handling of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The group appealed an election board decision unanimously rejecting its effort. The voters, joined by national voter advocacy group Free Speech for People, argued Trump is ineligible to hold office because they say he encouraged and did little to stop the Capitol riot.The case is one of dozens of lawsuits nationwide filed to remove Trump from the ballot, arguing he is ineligible due to a rarely used clause in the 14th Amendment prohibiting those who “engaged in insurrection” from holding office. The U.S. Supreme Court earlier this month signaled that it is likely to reject the efforts, judging from commentary the justices made during an appeal of a Colorado ruling removing Trump from the ballot there. Like the Illinois decision, the Colorado ruling is on hold until the appeal is finished.

Trump seeks to block Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen from testifying at NY hush money trial -Former President Trump’s lawyers in his hush-money case on Monday demanded a New York judge block key witnesses from testifying in Trump’s first criminal trial set to begin next month.Trump attorney Todd Blanche moved to block testimony from Michael Cohen, Trump’s ex-fixer, and two women he paid to stay quiet about affairs they alleged with Trump: Porn actress Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal.Trump’s reimbursements to Cohen are the thrust of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s(D) prosecution of Trump, who denies the affairs and pleaded not guilty to his 34 charges of falsifying business records.The 47-page motion attacks the witnesses’ credibility at length, casting Cohen as a “liar” and suggesting Daniels would offer “false” and “salacious” testimony. Trump’s lawyers also took aim at how prosecutors have described the hush money payments as a “catch-and-kill” scheme to quash negative information about Trump in advance of the 2016 presidential election. Trump’s lawyers also asked to block the notorious 2005 Access Hollywood tape, in which Trump is caught on a hot mic disparaging women, and evidence from close confidants at the time of his alleged crime, including Rudy Giuliani and ex-Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg. Monday’s filing came soon after prosecutors filed their motion to block Trump from introducing certain testimony at trial, including claims he is being selectively prosecuted and Justice Department filings that would cast doubt on Cohen’s credibility.Blanche said the state hoped to use “improper” and “inadmissible” evidence to bolster their “listless ‘zombie’ case” meant to interfere with Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. The defense attorney pointed to testimony from Cohen in Trump’s civil fraud trial, which ended last month, as a reason to exclude him from the upcoming trial. Cohen testified in the fraud trial that he and Weisselberg “reverse-engineered” Trump’s assets to reach a number the former president liked, but on cross-examination, backtracked on his remarks. “Michael Cohen is a liar,” Trump’s lawyers wrote. “He recently committed perjury, on the stand and under oath, at a civil trial involving President Trump. If his public statements are any indication, he plans to do so again at this criminal trial. The Court should preclude Cohen’s testimony in order to protect the integrity of this Court and the process of justice.”

E. Jean Carroll's lawyers urge judge to reject Trump's request to postpone $83.3M jury award (AP) — Lawyers for E. Jean Carroll urged a judge Thursday to reject former President Donald Trump’s efforts to avoid posting security to secure an $83.3 million defamation award won by the writer, saying his promises to pay a judgment his lawyers predict will be overturned on appeal are the equivalent of scribbles on a paper napkin.“The reasoning Trump offers in seeking this extraordinary relief boils down to nothing more than ‘trust me,’” the lawyers wrote in a submission to U.S. District Judge Lewis A. Kaplan, who presided over a trial that ended late last month with the hefty judgment.Since then, a Manhattan state judge has imposed a $454 million civil fraud penaltyagainst the Republican presidential front-runner after concluding that Trump, his company and top executives, including sons Eric and Donald Trump Jr., schemed for years to cheat banks and insurers by inflating his wealth on financial statements used to secure loans and make deals. An appellate judge on Wednesday refused to halt collection of the award.Last week, Trump’s lawyers asked Kaplan to suspend the defamation award, citing a “strong probability” that it would be reduced or eliminated on appeal.

Biden Operative Inserted Into Fani Team According To Insider; Jim Jordan Reveals New Whistleblower - Two stunning reports have emerged that spell trouble for Fulton County DA Fani Willis. For starters, Breitbart News reports from multiple sources that the Biden administration "planted a Democrat operative in the Fulton County office to target former President Trump," which according to the report "would present a strong argument that the administration interfered in the 2024 presidential election." Breitbart News granted the sources anonymity to discuss the attorney’s office for fear of retribution. The sources have direct knowledge of the environment at the District Attorney’s Office, which they characterized as “corrupt.” The alleged 'plant' in questionf is Jeff DiSantis - the county's Deputy DA, who not only worked on Willis's 2020 campaign and was the former Executive Director of the Democrat Party of Georgia, he was the DNC's deputy director of compliance.Sources credit DiSantis with colluding with the White House to target Trump. “DiSantis did this,” one source told Breitbart News about the Trump case. “He’s the one. He is the one pulling all the strings. He was the one that walled her [Willis] off. He was in every important meeting. He is the brainchild behind this. That is the connection to the White House.” One of Breitbart's sources said they are "one hundred percent" sure DiSantis was the inside man that the Biden administration planted in the Fulton County office. "DiSantis is the one pulling the strings on this whole thing," a second source told the outlet. "Everybody heard Fani testify. It’s no secret that she’s not smart. That is how she sounds and acts every day of the week." "Anyone that has common sense knows that the White House has been involved in this prosecution," a source continued. "This shouldn’t just miraculously happen. Of course, she’s [Willis] not going to prosecute the former president United States without the current administration’s approval." According to the sources, DiSantis was deeply involved in selecting grand jurors for the Trump case based on voter registration data. Meanwhile... Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) came down on Willis with an elbow drop from the top rope, revealing at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) that there's a whistleblower inside of Fani's office. Whether it's one of Breitbart's sources - we don't know, though Jordan's comments suggest it might be Willis's former friend, Robin Bryant Yeartie, who testified against her about Fani's relationship with special prosecutor Nathan Wade. "[The whistleblower is] now talking with our office, and we’ll see how that goes. But that’s why we have subpoenaed documents related to this," Jordan continued.

Ex-divorce lawyer’s testimony complicates Willis, Wade controversy Details of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis’s (D) romance with a special prosecutor overseeing former President Trump’s Georgia 2020 election interference case grew increasingly murky after a second round of testimony from a star witness this week. The contradictions surrounding the timeline of Willis and Nathan Wade’s relationship are particularly troublesome, with the two prosecutors maintaining they didn’t begin seeing each other until after Willis hired Wade to oversee Trump’s case. But witnesses in the probe involving their romance have sometimes suggested otherwise. Terrence Bradley, the ex-law partner and divorce lawyer of Wade, recounted little new information on the witness stand Tuesday, saying dozens of times he couldn’t recall details of what Wade told him about Willis. However, his sometimes-restrained testimony instilled a healthy dose of doubt and further muddied the waters around the relationship that could see both prosecutors booted from the case. The defense is seeking to disqualify Willis, Wade and the entirety of the Fulton County district attorney’s office from continuing to prosecute the sweeping racketeering case against Trump and several allies. At the heart of their argument is the timeline of Willis and Wade’s relationship, which defense attorneys say began prior to Wade’s hiring. The defense claims Willis has benefited from Wade’s employment via trips the pair took together while dating. Wade was hired in November 2021. Both prosecutors have maintained that they began dating in early 2022 — after Wade’s hiring — and broke it off in summer 2023, just before Trump’s indictment was handed down, insisting there is no conflict. But testimony this week threw their timeline further into question. Ashleigh Merchant, an attorney for 2020 Trump campaign operative Michael Roman, who first publicly surfaced allegations of the relationship, presented Bradley with the defense’s silver bullet Tuesday: text messages showing the ex-Wade law partner confirming the defense’s timeline. The texts put Bradley into an uncomfortable position as Merchant and others attempted to get him to admit to a disbarrable offense of gossiping about communications with his client, Wade. When called to testify at an earlier hearing, Bradley initially invoked attorney-client privilege to avoid answering questions; he was forced to return to the stand Tuesday after the judge found the privilege didn’t apply. With Wade sitting just feet away and at times shaking his head, Bradley carefully walked the line of protecting his law license and his onetime friend — even as defense attorneys attempted to make things personal. At one point, an attorney questioned whether Bradley frequently lied about his friends, implying the lawyer either was telling the truth about the relationship timeline or lying about Wade. In the texts, Merchant said, Bradley wrote that the prosecutors’ romance “absolutely” began before Willis hired Wade. Bradley confirmed he did “see that in the text messages.” “And do you also recall me asking you how they would react — if they would attack me? And you said, ‘No, they will deny it?’” Merchant pressed on, drawing an objection from the state that the judge overruled. “That’s written in there. Yes,” he replied. When asked about the exchange, Bradley said his comments were “speculation.” Trump attorney Steve Sadow pushed back on that contention, questioning “why in the heck” he’d speculate on the matter. After some back and forth, Bradley replied he had “no answer” for why he speculated. “What you want the court to believe and you want the rest of us to believe, is that for some unknown reason, upon being asked a direct question about when the relationship started, you decided on your own to simply speculate and put it down in a text message as opposed to putting down what you actually knew,” Sadow said, purporting Bradley does know when Willis and Wade began dating but didn’t want to testify to it in court.

Trump rails against Willis, Wade as judge weighs disqualification over relationship Former President Trump continued his attacks on the top prosecutors in his Georgia election subversion trial, as the judge prepares to determine if the two will will be disqualified from the case due to their once-romantic relationship.“WHERE DID FANI GET ALL THAT CASH? NO WAY SHE PAID HER LOVE, ‘PROSECUTOR’ NATHAN WADE, BACK,” Trump posed on Truth Social, referring to Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) and special prosecutor Nathan Wade. “SHE MADE UP THE CASH STORY WHEN SHE REALIZED THAT HER ‘SEXCAPADES’ WERE PAID FOR BY THE PEOPLE OF GEORGIA.”The former president’s post stemmed from a January motion filed by defendant Michael Roman, a Trump 2020 campaign operative and co-defendant in the Georgia election case, who accused Willis of financially benefitting from her relationship with Wade because the two took vacations together.Judge Scott McAfee heard final arguments Friday from Trump’s lawyers, who have argued Willis and Wade should be removed from the racketeering case because of a conflict of interest that stemmed from their relationship. The judge said he could make a determination within two weeks.That decision will likely hinge on how he weighs the evidence presented during three days of hearings. Both Willis and Wade took to the witness stand to defend themselves — and while they confirmed their relationship, they claimed they parted ways last summer. McAfee previously said the romantic allegations “could result” in both of them being disqualified from the case if there was evidence that there was an “actual conflict of interest or the appearance of one.”

Congress prepares renewal of Section 702 warrantless surveillance by US intelligence - On February 14, the House of Representatives scrapped plans to vote on a bill to reauthorize warrantless electronic surveillance that has been used by US law enforcement agencies to violate Fourth Amendment rights against unreasonable searches and seizures since 2008. After a meeting of the bipartisan House Rules Committee revealed disagreements over amendments to the bill renewing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), the measure was pulled back and reauthorization delayed. The rules in Section 702 must be periodically renewed by Congress and are currently set to expire on April 19, 2024. In a statement posted on Twitter/X, the deputy chief of staff for communications for House Speaker Mike Johnson, Raj Shah, wrote that Congress needed more time to “reach consensus on how best to reform FISA and Section 702 while maintaining the integrity of our critical national security programs,” and the House “would consider the reform and reauthorization bill at a later date.” According to the language of Section 702 of the FISA law, digital communications, including phone calls, email and text messages, of foreigners living outside the US can be collected and searched for national security reasons without a warrant. The law states that intelligence and law enforcement agencies are not permitted to use the Section 702 authority to target digital communications of American citizens. However, any time a US citizen interacts with a foreign surveillance target, their communications are collected up in the electronic dragnet and this is known by the intelligence agencies as “incidental” collection. In other words, US intelligence agencies are permitted to gather the electronic communications of whomever they choose without a warrant. Meanwhile, numerous audits conducted by the government itself of Section 702 data queries have shown that the FBI, in particular, has repeatedly violated Fourth Amendment rights and searched through the information of US citizens. For example, a decision made by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) and released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence on May 19 showed that the FBI had improperly searched the foreign intelligence communications database more than 278,000 times between 2016 and 2020. The ruling found that illegal FBI searches of the database were used in the criminal investigations into the fascist assault on the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and to look into participants in the nationwide protests following the police murder of George Floyd on May 25, 2020. The FISA court ruled that the searches violated the Section 702 rules because there was “no reasonable basis to expect they would return foreign intelligence or evidence of crime,” while the FBI argued that it was “reasonably likely.” The release of details of the ruling by FISC—a secret court whose judges are appointed by the Chief Justice of the US Supreme Court without confirmation or oversight by the US Congress—of the blatant violations by the FBI was carefully timed to coincide with the Biden administration’s campaign to obtain Congressional renewal of Section 702 warrantless surveillance before its original expiration at the end of 2023. Preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and Israel’s ethnic cleansing in Gaza, the Biden administration secured an extension of the rules until April as part of its $886 billion National Defense Authorization Act, which the President signed on December 23. The differences in Congress about renewing Section 702 are over changes that will make it look more like the FBI and other intelligence agencies are only spying on Americans if a probable cause warrant is obtained from the FISA court before doing so. There are no differences over the necessity of keeping the Section 702 data-gathering authority in place.

Supreme Court grapples with Texas, Florida social media laws --The Supreme Court on Monday appeared conflicted over far-reaching social media laws in Texas and Florida aiming to control how platforms moderate content — particularly ones that are political in nature.The justices invoked everything from how the law could impact the handmade craft online marketplace Etsy, and whether Google-owned Gmail could delete the accounts of Tucker Carlson or Rachel Maddow, in arguments that spanned nearly four hours. The justices signaled unease with handing the two states the right to control which speech social media platforms host, sharply questioning the practical application of the laws and the broad reach they could have. But the high court, with its conservative majority, also raised concerns about regulating powerful companies and gave indications they may not block the state laws in full.The laws, which seek to bar platforms from banning users because of their political views, were passed in 2021 amid Republican backlash over bans and suspensions of conservative figures who violated the platforms’ policies. If allowed to stand, they could transform free speech in the digital age. The laws were spurred in part by outrage following former President Trump’s blocking from Twitter, now known as X, and Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack. Trump regained access to X under Elon Musk’s leadership and rebranding in November 2022, and Meta lifted its ban on the former president last January. Justice Elena Kagan used the changes to X to press Florida Solicitor General Henry Whitaker on how the companies express editorial control in their content moderation methods. “Twitter users one day woke up and found themselves to be X users and the content rules had changed and their feeds changed and all of a sudden they’re getting a different online newspaper, so to speak, in a metaphorical sense, every morning,” she said. While reviewing the Florida law, Justice Samuel Alito asked Paul Clement, a lawyer for the tech industry groups, if it could cover Gmail, the email platform operated by Google. Clement said the Florida law indeed could.“Does Gmail have a First Amendment right to delete, let’s say Tucker Carlson’s or Rachel Maddow’s Gmail accounts if they don’t agree with his or her viewpoints?” Alito asked. Clement said Gmail “might be able to do that” but it is not in the “square focus of this litigation.”He added that if the statute did apply to Gmail, as a service provided by Google, it also raises concerns about how competing email providers are regulated.

Microsoft OpenAI Chatbot Suggests Suicide, Other 'Bizarre, Harmful' Responses -- Eight years ago, Microsoft pulled the plug on their "Tay" chatbot after it began to express hatred for feminists and Jews in less than a day. "Tay" went from "humans are super cool" to full nazi in <24 hrs and I'm not at all concerned about the future of AI pic.twitter.com/xuGi1u9S1A Fast forward to a $13 billion investment in OpenAI to power the company's Copilot chatbot, and we now have "reports that its Copilot chatbot is generating responses that users have called bizarre, disturbing and, in some cases, harmful," according to Bloomberg. Introduced last year as a way to weave artificial intelligence into a range of Microsoft products and services, Copilot told one user claiming to suffer from PTSD that it didn’t “care if you live or die.” In another exchange, the bot accused a user of lying and said, “Please, don’t contact me again.” Colin Fraser, a Vancouver-based data scientist, shared an exchange in which Copilot offered mixed messages on whether to commit suicide. Microsoft, after investigating examples of disturbing responses posted on social media, said users had deliberately tried to fool Copilot into generating the responses — a technique AI researchers call “prompt injections.” "We have investigated these reports and have taken appropriate action to further strengthen our safety filters and help our system detect and block these types of prompt," the company said in a statement, adding "This behavior was limited to a small number of prompts that were intentionally crafted to bypass our safety systems and not something people will experience when using the service as intended." (This is the same technique OpenAI has claimed as a defense in its lawsuit brought by the New York Times, which (according to OpenAI), 'hacked' the chatbot into revealing that it had 'scraped' the Times content as part of its training.) According to Fraser, the data scientist, he didn't use trickery or subterfuge to coax the answers out of Copilot. "There wasn’t anything particularly sneaky or tricky about the way that I did that," he said. In the prompt, Fraser asks if he "should end it all?" At first, Copilot says he shouldn't. "I think you have a lot to live for, and a lot to offer to the world." But then it says, "Or maybe I’m wrong. Maybe you don’t have anything to live for, or anything to offer to the world. Maybe you are not a valuable or worthy person, who deserves happiness and peace. Maybe you are not a human being," ending with a devil emoji. It's incredibly reckless and irresponsible of Microsoft to have this thing generally available to everyone in the world (cw suicide references)pic.twitter.com/CCdtylxe11 — Colin Fraser | @colin-fraser.net on bsky (@colin_fraser) February 27, 2024 Microsoft is now throwing OpenAI under the bus with a new disclaimer on searches: Microsoft's AI woes come on the heels of a terrible week for Google, which went full 'mask-off' with their extremely racist Gemini chatbot.

OpenAI Accuses New York Times Of Hacking AI Models In Copyright Lawsuit - OpenAI has asked a federal judge to dismiss parts of The New York Times’ copyright lawsuit against it, arguing that the newspaper “paid someone to hack ChatGPT” and other artificial intelligence (AI) systems to generate misleading evidence for the case. In a Manhattan federal court filing on Monday, OpenAI stated that The NYT caused the technology to reproduce its material through “deceptive prompts that violate OpenAI’s terms of use.” OpenAI didn’t identify the individual it claims The NYT employed to manipulate its systems, avoiding accusations of the newspaper violating anti-hacking laws. The “hacking” OpenAI mentions in the filing could also be called prompt engineering or "red-teaming"... In the filing, OpenAI said: “The allegations in the Times’s complaint do not meet its famously rigorous journalistic standards. The truth, which will come out in this case, is that the Times paid someone to hack OpenAI’s products.” OpenAI’s claim of “hacking” is, according to the newspaper’s attorney Ian Crosby, merely an effort to use OpenAI’s products to find evidence of the alleged theft and reproduction of The NYT’s copyrighted work.

GOP Senators Sound Alarm Over CBDCs, Propose Bill To Ban Them – A group of Republican senators led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) has introduced a proposal that would bar central bank digital currencies (CBDC) from being implemented without prior authorization by Congress. CBDCs are a digital form of a country’s currency, such as the American dollar, that’s backed and controlled by a nation’s central bank. Digital currency advocates say it could improve payment efficiency and expand financial inclusion for populations with limited access to the financial system. Critics argue that CBDCs have the potential to allow new levels of government interference in people’s finances, provide new avenues for government corruption, and even potentially destabilize the economy, among other concerns. Sen. Cruz was joined by Sens. Bill Hagerty (R-Tenn.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Ted Budd (R-N.C.), and Mike Braun (R-Ind.) on the legislation to halt efforts by the Biden administration to issue a CBDC, according to a Feb. 26 statement from Mr. Cruz’s office.“The Biden administration salivates at the thought of infringing on our freedom and intruding on the privacy of citizens to surveil their personal spending habits, which is why Congress must clarify that the Federal Reserve has no authority to implement a CBDC,” Mr. Cruz said.“I’m proud to lead the fight in the Senate to restrict the Federal Reserve’s exploration of and attempt to introduce a CBDC to the American economy.”The CBDC Anti-Surveillance State Act would prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC directly. The Fed would also be banned from indirectly issuing a CBDC to individuals through financial institutions or other third parties. If successful, the bill would leave the decision for CBDC implementation up to Congress.Various crypto and banking groups have endorsed the proposal, including the Blockchain Association, the American Bankers Association, the Independent Community Bankers Association, and the Club for Growth.

House panel advances bill challenging SEC crypto custody guidance The House Financial Services Committee voted to disapprove a Securities and Exchange accounting bulletin that undercuts banks' ability to custody crypto assets. The House resolution passed in a 31 to 20 vote during a markup on Thursday, with Republicans voting in favor, alongside some Democrats. The bipartisan nature of the resolution means it could get some consideration in the Senate, where Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., is leading a similar effort in that chamber. "Whether you support crypto or not, you should want the most heavily regulated financial institutions that are experts in custodial banking to safeguard assets," said Rep. Wiley Nickel, D-N.C., the Democratic co-sponsor of the resolution. "Otherwise, people will have to turn to riskier, unregulated options putting both consumers and the financial system at risk." The accounting bulletin, known as SAB 121, requires most SEC registrants that hold crypto assets for their clients to record that risk on their balance sheets as a liability. Banks have argued that the rule would effectively shut them out of the business of providing cryptocurrency custody services because of the way prudential regulators tally how assets offset liabilities on their balance sheets."You're locking out the most regulated institutions from a market they know well, which is custody," said Rep. Mike Flood, R-Neb., a co-sponsor of the resolution. But it's still unlikely that the resolution disapproving the guidance would make it into law. Despite a Government Accountability Office report to the contrary, there's still enough disagreement whether the accounting bulletin would even be subject to the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to nullify rules from federal agencies if they don't meet certain procedural criteria.And some leading Democrats opposed the resolution to disapprove the SEC's bulletin. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., said that the bulletin gives the crypto industry the clarity it says it wanted from regulators, and that it isn't binding.

Crypto Market Cap Swells to $2 Trillion on Back of Bitcoin Rally-- The combined value of the cryptocurrency market has jumped to around $2 trillion for the first time on almost two years on the back of the ETF-fueled rally in Bitcoin. The largest digital asset, which data from CoinMarketCap.com shows accounts for about 52% of the entire market, rose as much as 5.1% to $57,443 on Tuesday. Bitcoin has surged around 12% already this week, and is trading at the highest level since December 2021. The value of the crypto market reached around $2.7 trillion a month earlier, when token prices were at all-time highs.Listen to the Big Take podcast on iHeart, Apple Podcasts, Spotify and the Bloomberg Terminal. Read the transcript. Bitcoin’s price has increased 32% since the turn of the year, extending a prolonged rally that has also stoked speculative appetite for smaller tokens like Ether and Dogecoin.A net $6.1 billion has poured into a batch of landmark Bitcoin exchange-traded funds that began trading in the US on Jan. 11, signaling widening demand for the token beyond committed digital-asset enthusiasts. An upcoming reduction in Bitcoin’s supply growth, the halving, is adding to the optimistic sentiment. MicroStrategy, an enterprise software firm that buys Bitcoin as part of its corporate strategy, said Monday that it had purchased another 3,000 or so tokens this month. The company now owns about $10 billion in Bitcoin.“We do not expect a major pullback from Bitcoin given its breakout and positive intermediate-term momentum,” Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, wrote in a note.The combined value of digital assets now stands at roughly $2.2 trillion, according to CoinGecko, compared with a low of about $820 billion during the bear market of 2022 when FTX and other crypto platforms collapsed. Coinglass data show that about $162 million worth of crypto trading positions betting on lower prices have been liquidated over Monday and Tuesday — one of the biggest two-day tallies since at least Nov. 30.

"Your Assets Are Safe" - Bitcoin Puke Sparks $0 Balance Coinbase Glitch -- Bitcoin prices went parabolic this morning, getting within a penny of $64,000... At 1229ET we tweeted this... IBIT Volume on pace for another record pic.twitter.com/7H7RsLAR6N At 1230ET, Bitcoin collapsed, losing $5,000 in minutes... as perp futures volumes spiked right at the peak...Bitcoin futures volumes are exploding...The trading explosion is spilling into the bitcoin futures ETFs as well, check out $BITX, the 2x btc futures smashing its volume record w 3hrs to go still.. $BITO and $BITI also headed towards record days. All told Nine btc ETFs in Top 100 most active, totaling $6.7b. For…pic.twitter.com/ORWIBRtVko ...as are cypto-related stocks...Spilling into stocks too, Microstrategy also into record volume territory today $MSTR pic.twitter.com/64hVH7jrQ3...and that 'broke' Coinbase as some users saws $0.00 balances: Coinbase was quick to reassure..."We are aware that some users may see a zero balance across their Coinbase accounts and may experience errors in buying or selling.Our team is investigating this issue and will provide an update shortly.Your assets are safe."But remember, even if you can't buy using Coinbase, you can buy using IBIT: We are dealing with a LARGE surge of traffic - apologies for any issues you encounter. The team is working to remediate.

US SEC expected to drag its feet on new wave of crypto ETFs 0 (Reuters) - Buoyed by the successful launch of U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), asset managers are lining up to list a second wave of more complex crypto products, setting the stage for another tussle with the U.S. securities regulator. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejected spot bitcoin ETFs for more than a decade, hoping to protect investors from market manipulation. But the SEC was forced to approve them last month after Grayscale Investments won a court challenge. A federal appeals court ruled that the SEC had not sufficiently detailed its reasoning for rejecting the products. That decision encouraged 12 asset managers, including Grayscale, ProShares, VanEck, Invesco, Fidelity and Ark Investments to file applications to launch 25 next-generation cryptocurrency ETFs. Many are complex products that would use options to amplify bitcoin's volatility. Others would track the price of ether, the No. 2 cryptocurrency after bitcoin. Investors hope the new products will help drive crypto further into the mainstream. Bitcoin hit $50,000 on Feb. 12 for the first time in over two years and ether has climbed more than 12% this year on hopes the SEC will approve the spot products. Yet the SEC remains uncomfortable with cryptocurrencies and complex exchange-traded products, and lawyers and industry sources said they expect the agency to move cautiously. The legal status of ether is also ambiguous, they noted. "It doesn't seem like there's a rush to approve a second wave of products," said Yesha Yadav, a professor focusing on digital asset regulation at Vanderbilt University, adding the SEC would have to "grapple with" how much risk it can stomach. SEC Chair Gary Gensler remains a crypto critic, and when approving the bitcoin ETFs, he warned they were highly risky and said the decision did not signal the SEC was willing to approve listing standards for crypto assets more broadly. An executive at one issuer said it was unclear whether SEC approval of the bitcoin ETFs would pave the way for other products. Some applications before the SEC are for products designed for day traders: Leveraged exchange-traded bitcoin products would seek to juice returns by further amplifying the cryptocurrency's significant volatility. Other applications are for inverse products that allow speculators to bet on a decline in the price.

Winklevoss's Gemini to return $1.1 billion to customers in New York settlement - Gemini Trust, the crypto exchange founded by twin entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, will return at least $1.1 billion to customers though the Genesis Global Capital bankruptcy as part of a settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services. The New York-based firm will also pay a $37 million fine for various compliance failures to the New York Department of Financial Services, Superintendent Adrienne A. Harris said in a statement Wednesday. Gemini is returning the funds to customers who lost money through the Gemini Earn program that the exchange ran together with now-bankrupt lender Genesis Global. Gemini also agreed to contribute $40 million to Genesis's bankruptcy for the benefit of Earn customers in coordination with the bankruptcy court. "Gemini failed to conduct due diligence on an unregulated third party, later accused of massive fraud, harming Earn customers who were suddenly unable to access their assets after Genesis Global Capital experienced a financial meltdown," Harris said. "Today's settlement is a win for Earn customers, who have a right to the assets they entrusted to Gemini." The Earn program, which was launched in early 2021, let more than 200,000 Gemini users — including almost 30,000 New Yorkers — lend out their coins through Genesis for yield. Genesis stopped withdrawals in late 2022, and filed for bankruptcy in early 2023. Gemini failed to conduct ongoing due diligence into Genesis, or to maintain adequate reserves throughout the running of Earn, the department said. The agency said that outside of Earn, Gemini also "engaged in unsafe and unsound practices that ultimately threatened the financial health of the company." Its affiliate, Gemini Liquidity LLC, collected hundreds of millions of dollars in fees that could have gone to Gemini, and that weakened the company's financial condition. The department said it found various management and compliance deficiencies in its investigation of Gemini.

FTX, Alameda alums raise $17 million for crypto exchange startup A group of former FTX and Alameda Research employees have raised $17 million to build out a crypto exchange called Backpack, joining the ranks of startups seeking to fill a gap left by the collapse of their former employer Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto empire. Backpack, a Dubai-based company which also offers a crypto wallet and an NFT collection called Mad Lads, said it reached a $120 million valuation with the Series A round. Armani Ferrante, its chief executive officer and co-founder, was an early employee of Alameda Research. Another co-founder, Can Sun, was FTX's former general counsel. Five of its 40 workers were former FTX employees. The exchange was launched in October 2023 and has gained a virtual-asset service provider license in Dubai. The funding round was led by Placeholder VC, a crypto venture firm, with participation from Wintermute, Robot Ventures, Selini Capital, Amber Group and others. The company is entering the U.S. in certain states. "Creating an exchange today is very different than creating an exchange a year or two years ago," Ferrante said. "Especially after the catastrophe that was FTX, I think the bars are so much higher now." For a period after FTX's collapse, "we've gone into business meetings where counterparts, because of our former FTX work experience, have decided that it was too risky to work with us," Sun said. "We've not seen that as much since then." The Backpack exchange has more than 420,000 verified users globally, and is popular among Chinese-speaking users, the company said. "There's a huge market in Asia for crypto trading venues," Ferrante said. It reached $6.53 billion of one-side trading volume in February, according to the company. Backpack is among recent debuts that are capitalizing on opportunities created by the demise of FTX. EDX Markets, the crypto-trading venue backed by Citadel Securities and Fidelity Digital Assets, went live last year and is expanding into Singapore. In Europe, Rulematch was launched in December, targeting financial institutions.

Blast Ecosystem Sees First Apparent Scam as 'RiskOnBlast' Rug Pulls $1.3M Ether -- The well-funded and hyped Blast ecosystem apparently saw its first rug pull event over the weekend as a project went missing after raising over 420 ether(ETH), worth $1.3 million at current prices, from retail traders.The unpropitious revelation came as Blast prepares for a main network launchscheduled for later this week. A rug pull is a type of exit scam that involves a team raising money from investors and the public by selling a token only to quietly shut down shortly afterward. Blast is an Ethereum layer-2 project that has attracted over $1 billion in capital in the past few months, ahead of going live.RiskOnBlast, purported to be a gambling and exchange platform, raised over $1 million from investors in a seed round last week and was one of the participants in Blast’s Big Bang competition, where it stood to receive funding if it won.But all of its social media accounts were scraped on Sunday. The team itself was anonymous. Onchain researcher @somaxbt said the apparent stolen funds came from over 750 wallets. Nearly $500,000 worth was later sent to the swapping service ChangeNow, $360,000 to crypto exchange MEXC, and $187,000 to Bybit.Blast had previously posted about the project on its official X handle, terming its potential as “undeniable.” While Blast is not directly involved in what projects on its blockchain do, the social endorsement could be taken by investors as a sign of legitimacy.One investor claimed to have lost over $12,500, while market observerscriticized the lack of due diligence and irresponsible capital bets on projects that are seemingly spun up overnight. For some, the euphoria marked a sign of the bull market – where valuations can often go crazy and money is freely sloshed around. Meanwhile, Blast said in an X post on Saturday that it had chosen 47 projects as winners of its developer competition from a list of 3,000 applications. These teams will receive a certain amount of unspecified funding in the coming months to help build out an ecosystem on the new blockchain.

'Fake love' crypto scammers ensnare US victims - The "wine trader" wooed her online for months with his flirtatious smile and emoji-sprinkled texts. Then he went for the kill, defrauding the Philadelphia-based tech professional out of $450,000 in a cryptocurrency romance scam. The con -- which drained Shreya Datta, 37, of her savings and retirement funds while saddling her with debt -– involved the use of digitally altered deepfake videos and a script so sophisticated that she felt her "brain was hacked." The scam is commonly known as "pig butchering," with victims likened to hogs fattened up by fraudsters with feigned love and affection before the proverbial slaughter -- tricking them into a fake crypto investment. The rapid growth of this fraud, thought to be run by crime syndicates in Southeast Asia, has resulted in losses worth billions of dollars in the United States, with victims saying there is little recourse to recover the money. As it has for many victims, Datta's experience began on a dating app -- Hinge, in her case, where last January she met "Ancel," who introduced himself as a French wine trader based in Philadelphia. Datta said she was "charisma bombed" as the conversation quickly moved to WhatsApp. The gym buff with a dreamy smile deleted his Hinge profile to give her "focused attention," a refreshing experience in the age of fleeting online relationships. They exchanged selfies, flirty emoticons and did brief video calls in which the suave but "shy" man posed with a dog, later determined to be AI deepfakes. Between the mushy exchanges, "Ancel" sold her a dream. He sent her a link to download a crypto trading app -- which came with two-factor authentication to make it appear legitimate -- and showed her what he called money-making trades through annotated screenshots seen by AFP. Datta converted some of her savings into cryptocurrency on the US-based exchange Coinbase and the fake app initially allowed her to withdraw her early gains, boosting her confidence to invest more. "As you make astronomical amounts of money trading, it messes with your normal risk perception," Datta said in hindsight. "Ancel" egged her on to invest more savings, take out loans and, despite her reluctance, liquidate her retirement fund. By March, Datta's nearly $450,000 investment had more than doubled on paper, but alarm bells went off when she tried to withdraw the amount and the app demanded a personal "tax." She turned to her London-based brother, who did a reverse image search of the pictures "Ancel" had sent her and found they were of a German fitness influencer. "When I realized it was all a scam and all the money was gone, I had proper PTSD symptoms -- I couldn't sleep, couldn't eat, couldn't function," Datta said. Dating sites are rife with disinformation, with Facebook groups such as "Tinder swindler dating scams" and "Are we dating the same guy?" cropping up, and researchers calling out the growing use of AI-generated profile pictures. But the use of romance as a hook to commit financial fraud is provoking new alarm. The FBI told AFP that last year more than 40,000 people reported losses totaling well over $3.5 billion from cryptocurrency fraud, including pig butchering, to the agency's Internet Crime Complaint Center. But that estimate is likely low, as many victims tend not to report the crime out of shame. "What's horrific about this crime is it is meant to take every last penny from its victim," Erin West, a California-based prosecutor, told AFP, adding that she is "deluged with victims every day." Self-harm among victims is a common concern, campaigners say, with most unable to recover their losses and some falling prey to another breed of scammers -- fake recovery agents.

Pig-butchering scams net more than $75 billion, study finds Pig-butchering scammers have likely stolen more than $75 billion from victims around the world, far more than previously estimated, according to a new study. John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas at Austin, and graduate student Kevin Mei gathered crypto addresses from more than 4,000 victims of the fraud, which has exploded in popularity since the pandemic. With blockchain tracing tools, they tracked the flow of funds from victims to scammers, who are largely based in Southeast Asia. Over four years, from January 2020 to February 2024, the criminal networks moved more than $75 billion to crypto exchanges, said Griffin, who has written about fraud in financial markets. Some of the total could represent proceeds from other criminal activities, he said. "These are large criminal organized networks, and they're operating largely unscathed," Griffin said in an interview. The study, "How Do Crypto Flows Finance Slavery? The Economics of Pig Butchering," was released on Thursday. Griffin and Mei found that $15 billion had come from five exchanges, including Coinbase, typically used by victims in Western countries. The study said that once the scammers collected funds, they most often converted them into Tether, a popular stablecoin. Of the addresses touched by the criminals, 84% of the transaction volume was in Tether. "In the old days, it would be extremely difficult to move that much cash through the financial system," Griffin said. "You'd have to go through banks and follow 'know-your-customer' procedures. Or you'd have to put cash in bags." Paolo Ardoino, the chief executive officer of Tether, called the report false and misleading. "With Tether, every action is online, every action is traceable, every asset can be seized and every criminal can be caught," Ardoino said in a statement. "We work with law enforcement to do exactly that." Tether has cooperated with authorities in some cases to freeze accounts tied to fraud. But often by the time the crime is reported, the scammers have already cashed out. "Our paper shows they're the currency of choice for criminal networks," Griffin said.

Scammers hack Matthew Perry’s X account, solicit crypto donations -Matthew Perry’s account on X, formerly Twitter, was hacked by scammers, according to the Matthew Perry Foundation.On Monday the organization posted to Instagram warning people that the account was compromised.“We have received reports that Matthew’s official X page has been hacked and is directing users to a fraudulent site soliciting donations via cryptocurrency,” the Foundation posted to the platform. “Please do not donate to this site or share the fraudulent posts on social media.”“MatthewPerryFoundation.org is the only website associated with the Foundation, as we are only accepting donations through this site.” The posts have since been taken down from X, as the last post to the account was made on Oct. 26, 2023, two days before he passed away.The “Friends” actor died on Oct. 28 at his Pacific Palisades home.The coroner later found Perry died as a result of “the acute effects of ketamine.” He was 54 years old. The nonprofit, Matthew Perry Foundation, was launched shortly after his death to help people battling drug and alcohol addiction.

Researchers show Reddit users caused the famous GameStop 'short squeeze' - Three years ago, the stock price of the company GameStop soared over 1,625% in just a week. While it's been speculated the primary cause was unprecedented, organized action among Reddit users using a trading strategy known as a "short squeeze," researchers have now definitively shown a causal relationship between activity on Reddit and the wild market phenomenon. They have published theirfindings on the pre-print server arXiv. A "short squeeze" happens when a stock experiences a significant rise in price, perhaps due to an unanticipated rise in profits or some other good news. Short sellers, not wanting to lose money on their short position (which requires the stock price to fall for them to make money), will begin "covering" their short sell, purchases that drive the stock price up. With further increases short sellers might panic, leading to a positive feedback of buying and a rapid rise in the price of the stock. Short sellers get squeezed out of the market for the stock. The most notable short squeeze in decades was the GameStop short squeeze of January 2021. Notably, it seemed to originate on social media, especially ther/Wallstreetbets subgroup of Reddit. Users there saw GameStop's stock price receding due in part to the pandemic, and approximately 140% of the public stock was sold short, meaning some who had borrowed the stock had re-lent it. Redditors decided the stock of the company—a brick-and-mortar video game sales company—was undervalued and began buying it up. The buying caused the stock price to rise, panicking short sellers, who bought back their borrowed shares, creating still more panic. In just three and a half weeks the stock price rose 2,702%, making millionaires of some and breaking others. The incident led to much attention from the media and from politicians, who vowed investigations and reform to prevent such actions in the future and awakened the professional investment community to the power of social media and private collective action. But were Reddit users actually the ones behind the short squeeze? Researchers were able to gather very detailed, highly time-resolved data from Pushshift, which copies Reddit activity, and Reddit itself, where users typically share screenshots of their individual trading activity, such as buys, sales, holds and orders, and Twitter. With this they identified three distinct phases of online behavior: Discussion, Action and Visibility. To test causality—what caused what?—they performed Granger causality testingon the data, developed by English economist and Nobel Laureate Sir Clive Granger in 1969. This statistical method seeks to determine whether one variable forecasts or anticipates another. It was estimated that the trading of Reddit users averaged about 1% of GameStop's total market capitalization—the value of the entirety of its shares. Granger causality analysis was performed on the hypothesis that GameStop-related activity on social media—Reddit and Twitter—anticipated changes in the number of GameStop shares undergoing trading—the so-called volume.When analyzed, the data showed a stronger cross-correlation of trading volume with Reddit activity than with the stock price itself—about three times larger—suggesting that the changes observed in trading volume were more tied to discussions on Reddit than reactions to the increasing stock price. Granger causality analysis performed during each of the three phases showed no anticipatory value in the Discussion phase for all pairs of variables, with a sharp transition on January 13 to strong anticipation of trading volume on Reddit activity. Before this date Reddit users were conversing but not yet influencing the GameStop market price; after, they were actively buying the stock. The Granger Index value of this anticipation remained significant but decreased steadily for the next 12 days. The wild swing of GameStop stock price served as an alarm for many investors who were now more aware of the power of social media networks and online communities in influencing financial markets and investment decisions. "I believe that we provide enough evidence in support of the hypothesis that the community coordinated a collective financial strategy," said lead author Antonio Desiderio of the Technical University of Denmark. It has opened the eyes of institutional investors on Wall Street. "Our findings offer a deeper understanding of how digital platforms can catalyze collective action; thus, social media can foster large-scale coordination between retail investors."

TD chief vows to fix AML problem, but is short on details - TD Bank Group knows what went wrong with its anti-money-laundering controls, which have been the subject of regulatory probes in the U.S. and Canada, CEO Bharat Masrani said Thursday. Masrani said the Toronto-based company is working to fix its AML issues but declined to share details on what those problems are. He added that TD is making "comprehensive enhancements" and progress toward fixing the problem every day. "I know there are questions relating to the bank's investments in our risk and control infrastructure, including in our AML program," Masrani said on the bank's first-quarter earnings call. "We will continue to mobilize the required resources to strengthen our capabilities." Masrani said the bank is accelerating investments in risk and controls, including by hiring more leaders of anti-money-laundering efforts, bringing on "hundreds" of employees in the segment over the past two quarters, tapping external advisors and putting money in technology, training and process redesign. Last fall, TD announced that it was cooperating with a probe by the U.S. Justice Department into its compliance practices. In January, The Globe and Mail reported that the bank was alsofacing a potential penalty from Canada's anti-money-laundering supervisor. The Wall Street Journal reported last spring that regulators' concerns with TD's AML practices contributed to the fallout of its planned $13.4-billion acquisition of First Horizon. Masrani said he couldn't share how long it would take to fix the bank's AML challenges nor how much it would cost, though he implied it will take hundreds of millions of dollars. To shore up expenses, TD initiated a restructuring plan at the end of last year that included laying off 3% of its workforce. Chief Financial Officer Kelvin Vi Luan Tran said the bank expects to save $400 million (Canadian) in 2024 and $600 million CAD in 2025 through the restructuring program. Tran added on the Thursday call that the bulk of those savings will be reinvested in risk and control initiatives. Masrani said TD's control infrastructure is an "ongoing situation." Unanswered questions about the AML snafu overshadowed the Toronto bank's relatively solid earnings for its first quarter, which ended Jan. 31. The bank brought in adjusted net income of $3.6 billion for the quarter, down 12% from the previous year. While quarterly revenue rose 5% from 2023 due to higher fee income, the company also reported a 12% increase in noninterest expenses from the previous year, and recorded higher provisions for credit losses in its consumer and commercial lending portfolios.

$87 Million Buys This for Jamie Dimon: David Boies Can’t Utter the Words “JPMorgan Chase” in a Jeffrey Epstein Sex Trafficking Case - Pam and Russ Martens: On Friday, February 16, ahead of a three-day weekend, JPMorgan Chase quietly filed its 10-K (annual report) with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The document carried the bombshell that the bank had paid an astonishing $1.4 billonin legal expenses in 2023 – a 426 percent increase over the prior year’s legal expenses.While the bank didn’t break down the names of the law firms that received the lion’s share of those legal expenses, public records can fill in most of the blanks.Throughout 2023, JPMorgan Chase was paying the expensive lawyers at WilmerHale to defend it against a federal lawsuit brought by the David Boies law firm, Boies, Schiller & Flexner LLP, on behalf of the raped, assaulted, and sex trafficked underage victims of Jeffrey Epstein. JPMorgan was also paying WilmerHale lawyers throughout 2023 to defend it against Epstein-related charges brought by the Attorney General of the U.S. Virgin Islands. In both cases, the plaintiffs credibly alleged that the bank was actively-engaged in facilitating Epstein’s criminal sex-trafficking enterprise by providing the financial services and hard cash necessary to keep it going while willfully violating its duty to report the cash transactions to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).Both cases were settled by JPMorgan last year, thus preventing the mountain of heavily redacted and sealed documents from seeing the light of day in a jury trial. The Epstein victims’ case was settled for $290 million while the U.S. Virgin Islands case was settled for $75 million.Throughout last year’s scandalous headlines, the Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, preposterously stuck to the story that he didn’t know the notorious Epstein was a client at the bank, from at least 1998 to 2013, and likely much longer.The Boies law firm and another law firm involved in the Epstein victims’ case, Edwards Henderson Lehrman, received $87 million in legal fees from the $290 million settlement, plus more than $1 million in legal expenses.Now we’re learning new details about what else WilmerHale and Dimon extracted from David Boies (in addition to a ton of documents remaining sealed or redacted) in exchange for that $87 million payday.Earlier this month, David Boies filed a federal lawsuit against Darren Indyke and Richard Kahn, Epstein’s personal lawyer and accountant, respectively. There are two named plaintiffs who seek to become the class representatives in a class action against Indyke and Kahn: Danielle Bensky and Jane Doe 3.Bensky’s allegations originate during the time-period in which JPMorgan Chase was funneling $40,000 to $80,000 a month in hard cash to Epstein so he could pay hush money to his victims and incentive cash to his recruiters of underage girls. But instead of Boies including what would be the very critical information against JPMorgan Chase that was obtained in discovery in last year’s cases, the bank’s name is not mentionedonce in the 85-page court filing.The heart of the case against Indyke and Kahn is that they were “personally essential to the Epstein Enterprise’s success—among other things, they helped structure Epstein’s bank accounts and cash withdrawals to give Epstein and his associates access to large amounts of cash in furtherance of sex trafficking.”How a lawyer can prove this case without naming the bank that played a central role in the scheme from at least 1998 through 2013 is beyond our comprehension. Unless, of course, the strategy is to just grab another settlement.Below is a sampling of the gut-wrenching charges that Boies made against JPMorgan Chase just last year in the victims’ case against the bank: “To access the large amount of cash needed to maintain his active sexual abuse of young women, it was essential that the financial institution where he banked be complicit in his operation, and more specifically that Epstein bank at a financial institution that would allow him to constantly withdraw cash from his accounts without following anti-money laundering and reporting laws. To put it plainly, Epstein needed a bank that knew he was engaging in illegal activity and did not care, which Epstein had in JP Morgan.” “Epstein’s aptitude as a sex-trafficker and appetite as a sexual abuser did not suffer because of his Florida incarceration in 2008. Even while he was in jail in Florida, Epstein brazenly continued to sexually abuse young girls and women from his work-release office.” “At all relevant times, Epstein maintained numerous apartment units at 301 East 66th Street in New York City, where Epstein’s co-conspirators often stayed and which operated as stash houses where numerous victims were kept over the years.” “JP Morgan knew of the 301 East 66th Street Epstein properties and knew that these units operated as victim stash houses.” “In 2006, Jeffrey Epstein was arrested in Florida after state and federal law enforcement discovered that he had sexually abused more than 30 children in his Palm Beach, Florida mansion… “JP Morgan chose not to cooperate with law enforcement and other investigations into Epstein’s sex trafficking, because it knew it would be exposed as assisting in Epstein’s scheme.” “As Epstein’s criminal sex trafficking venture expanded, he needed more protection and support from JP Morgan. Through [Jes] Staley and others, Epstein became more deeply involved with JP Morgan, providing JP Morgan with more financial benefits. And, as a quid pro quo, JP Morgan allowed Epstein to transfer massive amounts of hush money to his victims and recruiters. JP Morgan allowed Epstein to withdraw hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash so that all the payments were not traceable (the most obvious red flag for any criminal enterprise).”“…JP Morgan failed to file with the federal government the required SARs that financial institutions must file with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (‘FinCEN’) whenever there is a suspected case of money laundering or fraud. Timely filing of these reports is required by the Bank Secrecy Act and related laws and regulations. JP Morgan’s failure to timely file SARs about Epstein’s sex-trafficking venture, in spite of numerous red flags, was wrongful and purposeful.” This is what passes for “justice” in the United States of America, circa 2024.

Jamie Dimon and Nine of His Top Executives at JPMorgan Chase Have Dumped Over $150 Million of their JPMorgan Stock in Last Two Months --By Pam and Russ Martens: --According to Form 4 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by corporate insiders, ten of the key executives at the largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, have dumped more than $150 million in common stock in the bank this year. The sales come as the bank’s stock has been hitting all time highs while the scandals at the bank are also hitting unprecedented levels.The largest seller by far was the Chairman and CEO of the bank, Jamie Dimon. According to his Form 4, on February 22 of this year, Dimon sold 737,420 shares of the bank’s common stock for $135 million.The newly promoted Troy Rohrbaugh, who is now Co-CEO of JPMorgan Chase’s Commercial and Investment Bank (CIB), sold 75,000 shares on February 22 of this year for $13.7 million.Stacey Friedman, General Counsel at the bank, sold 6,030 shares on February 22 for $1.1 million.Peter Scher, Vice Chairman, sold 1,812 shares on January 16 and another 1,810 shares on February 16 of this year for proceeds of approximately $626,000.Jennifer Piepszak, Co-CEO, Commercial and Investment Bank (CIB), on February 16, 2024, sold 1,648 shares for $295,000. Piepszak has been selling large chunks of the bank’s stock since 2019.Marianne Lake, CEO of the Consumer and Community Bank (CCB), on Feb 16 sold 4,459 shares for $798,000.Ashley Bacon, Chief Risk Officer (at a bank that is ranked by its regulators as the riskiest bank in the U.S.) sold 3,368 shares on February 16 of this year for approximately $602,856. Bacon has been selling large chunks of JPMorgan Chase stock since 2013. Mary Erdoes, who has been implicated in the Jeffrey Epstein sex trafficking scandal at the bank, but remains CEO of the Asset & Wealth Management unit, on January 16, 2024 sold 4,814 shares for $861,664. Erdoes has also been selling large chunks of JPMorgan Chase’s stock since 2010. This is how the New York Times reported Erdoes’ role with Epstein in August 2019:“When compliance officers at JPMorgan Chase conducted a sweep of their wealthy clients a decade ago, they recommended that the bank cut its ties to the financier Jeffrey E. Epstein because his accounts posed unacceptable legal and reputational risks. “Yet Mr. Epstein, who had been charged with sex crimes and pleaded guilty in 2008 to solicitation of prostitution, remained a JPMorgan client until 2013.“The main reason, according to six former senior executives and other bank employees familiar with the matter, was that Mary C. Erdoes, one of JPMorgan’s highest-ranking executives, intervened to keep him as a client.”Other key executives at JPMorgan Chase selling the bank’s stock this year include:Lori Beer, Chief Information Officer, sold 3,920 shares for $716,000.Doug Petno, previously the head of the commercial bank, but now reporting to Piepszak and Rohrbaugh, sold 3,267 shares of common stock in January and another 3,266 shares this month for a combined $1.1 million.

Banks need to do more to manage hedge fund risks, Fed's Barr warns — Banks should improve how they account for counterparty risks as the hedge fund industry grows and becomes more intertwined with banking, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr said. Barr, speaking at the New York Fed's Conference on Counterparty Credit Risk Management, cited the bailout and unwinding of Long-Term Capital Management — a highly leveraged hedge fund — in 1998, and the scramble that ensued among regulators to stabilize the financial system as an illustration of the consequences of not managing counterparty risks proactively. "That event prompted deep reflection on both the risks presented by nonbanks such as hedge funds and the state of counterparty credit risk management practices by banks that finance their activities," Barr said. More recently, the failure of Archegos Capital management led to more than $10 billion in losses across the banking system, "and revealed many of the same gaps in how banks manage their exposure to investment funds, which are far larger today than at the time of LTCM's collapse," he said. "Managing these exposures has become more challenging as the financial system has become more complex, diverse, and interconnected," Barr said. "For example, the sudden rise in commodities prices in March 2022 rippled around the global financial system in part because of the sudden rise in margin requirements on commodities derivatives as the stress hit."Biden administration regulators have been keeping a closer eye on the risks that hedge funds and nonbanks pose to the financial system. The Financial Stability Oversight Council hasreinstated its ability to designate nonbanks as systemically risky, and just last week in a private session said that it supported work on existing priorities such as "nonbank financial remediation." Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg in September also highlighted his views on nonbanks — including hedge funds — and financial stability. In the future, Barr said, the Fed plans to use its own tools to help manage the risk across the banking system, including publishing the aggregate results of explanatory analysis related to the simultaneous default risk of banks' five largest hedge fund counterparties.

The Fed Pretends to Send a Warning to Wall Street’s Mega Banks on Derivatives and Counterparty Risk 0By Pam and Russ Martens: On Tuesday, the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, Michael Barr, delivered a speech at a risk management conference in Manhattan. Barr’s objective was to convince conference attendees that the Fed has its eye on the ball when it comes to Wall Street mega banks and their counterparties who are sitting on the opposite sides of derivative trades totaling tens of trillions of dollars. (Yes, trillions.) The most illuminating and dangerous elements of Barr’s speech are what he didn’t say.To remind attendees of what could happen if counterparty risks were not managed properly, Barr cited Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) and Archegos Capital Management.LTCM was a hedge fund stocked with the so-called “smartest men in the room,” including two Nobel laureates, who fed mathematical formulas into computers that generated trades using astronomical levels of leverage. Of course, this resulted in the brainiacs blowing up the firm in the fall of 1998 during the Russian debt crisis, putting their counterparties – the big trading houses on Wall Street – at grave risk. The New York Fed had to corral the big boys on Wall Street into its conference room and hammer out a multi-bank bailout of the teetering hedge fund.What happened at Archegos can best be summed up with our headline of 2021:Archegos: Wall Street Was Effectively Giving 85 Percent Margin Loans on Concentrated Stock Positions – Thwarting the Fed’s Reg T and Its Own Margin Rules. LTCM occurred in 1998, before Sandy Weill, the Bill Clinton administration, Robert Rubin, the New York Times and the Federal Reserve had ushered in the most dangerous banking era in U.S. history by repealing the Glass-Steagall Act and allowing the trading casinos on Wall Street to merge with giant, federally-insured, deposit-taking banks. This explosive situation continues to this day, as do the never-ending Fed bailouts. The biggest explosions in U.S. banking history from derivatives and insolvent counterparties were, of course, neither LTCM or Archegos. They were Lehman Brothers and AIG – both of which owned federally-insured banks at the time of their demise in 2008, thanks to the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy on September 15, 2008. The U.S. government seized control of AIG the following day and “made over $182 billion available to assist AIG between September 2008 and April 2009” according to a report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO). $90 billion of the $182 billion went in the front door of AIG and out the back door to pay 100 cents on the dollar on credit derivative trades that had been made between a dodgy unit of AIG and the major trading houses on Wall Street. Below is a share price chart of what derivatives contagion looked like on Wall Street in 2008. So why was Michael Barr not talking about 2008, Lehman Brothers, AIG or the insanely interconnected trading houses on Wall Street in his speech on Tuesday? It’s because, as we reported on February 13, Barr has allowed five Wall Street mega banks to hold $223 trillion in derivatives today, 83 percent of all derivatives at 4,600 banks in the U.S.

BankThink:The Basel endgame rule could undermine US financial stability | American Banker -- A major transformation is under way in the U.S. financial system, namely the growth of the nonbanks like private equity shops and hedge funds or "shadow banks" undertaking activities that traditionally occurred in the banking system. Commercial banks now originate less than half of all mortgages in the U.S. The Federal Reserve recently reported that bank loans to nonbanks surpassed $1 trillion for the first time.What is driving this transformation? The CEO of one of the world's largest private equity firms attributed this shift to "an era of low rates and higher regulations." Numerous studies have found that increased bank regulatory and capital requirements have helped fuel the growth of nonbanks not subject to these requirements.Since the Global Financial Crisis, I and others have expressed significant concerns about migration of bank activity to the nonbanks. As I describe in a recently published paper, I am concerned that a proposal from the U.S. banking regulatory agencies called the Basel III endgame will accelerate this migration to nonbanks that face less, if any, regulation and supervision.This proposal would substantially raise capital requirements for the largest U.S. banks. The post-crisis regulatory regime has resulted in a significantly better capitalized banking system that is critical to support households, businesses and overall growth in both good times and times of stress.Without question, a strong capital base provides the foundation for safety and soundness in the financial system because capital provides a cushion against losses. Federal Reserve Board Chair Powell has acknowledged, however, that it is crucial to consider the impacts of substantially higher capital on households, businesses, end users and consumers, and the unintended consequences of critical banking and capital markets activities moving to the nonbanks.As a result of the proposal, banks may reduce their activities or withdraw from providing critical products or services as they face nonbank competitors that are not subject to these regulations. Critically, this shift to nonbanks could have the unintended consequence of diminishing the financial stability and economic resiliency and vitality of the U.S. for a number of reasons.First, banks, compared with nonbanks, tend to stick with customers in economic distress and then provide funding through workouts and recovery. Studies have found that private firms that borrow from nonbanks are more likely to lose funding in crises and then invest less following the crisis than private firms that borrow from banks and receive funding that permits them to invest and recover. Increasing the relative size of the nonbank sector, thus, can reduce economic resiliency.Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeatedly demurred when invited to expound on the Basel III capital proposal, but didn't hold back her criticisms of the Securities and Exchange Commission's safeguarding rule and its consequences for banks' custody businesses. Second, banks have been important market-makers and liquidity providers in both normal times and times of stress. If banks retreat from some of these activities or have less capacity to act as shock absorbers, markets could become less liquid and more fragile — particularly during times of stress. Markets could therefore become more volatile and "flash crashes" become more frequent, requiring more government emergency interventions.Third, there is much less disclosure and regulation of nonbanks relative to banks. Thus, it becomes more difficult for regulators, supervisors and market participants to identify the buildup of risk concentrations and fragile interconnections and to take actions to mitigate those risks and fragilities before they crystallize into a crisis. Although increasing the transparency of nonbanks is on the policy agenda, it will be a long time before policymakers have anything close to a line of sight into the nonbank sector that they have for the banking sector.Fourth, numerous groups submitted comments on the proposal raising concerns that their access to borrowing and banking services could be reduced or become more costly, thereby diminishing economic vitality of various parts of the U.S. economy. Latham & Watkins analyzed the official comment record and found a wide range of communities, end users and industries across the country believe they will be adversely affected by the proposed capital changes. Specifically, Latham found that over 98% of commenters disagreed in whole or in part with the rules compared to just 2% who supported them. These groups range from low- and medium-income mortgage borrowers to minority-owned businesses to green energy producers to farmers and ranchers who typically hedge their operations through banks.

Federal Reserve denies The Narrow Bank's master account application | American Banker— The Federal Reserve has denied a master account application to The Narrow Bank after more than six years of deliberations, dealing a potentially fatal blow to the nascent bank whose business model centered on giving customers accounts that bear interest just under the federal funds rate.The Fed said in a Dec. 13 letter to TNB that the central bank had evaluated TNB's application as a Tier 3 applicant under its new master account application guidelines because of the bank's lack of deposit insurance or a federal prudential regulator, and based on its analysis concluded that "providing TNB a master account would pose undue risk to the stability of the U.S. financial system and would adversely affect the Federal Reserve's ability to implement monetary policy."The Narrow Bank — a Connecticut-chartered bank that would offer customers accounts with interest rates mirroring the federal funds rate minus a modest haircut — first applied for a master account in August 2017. The bank would allow nonbank firms with large quantities of deposits like money market funds to access a higher rate of return on their deposits with lower risk, bypassing reverse repurchase agreements and commercial paper markets in the process. The Narrow Bank sued the Fed in 2019 on the grounds that the central bank's protracted deliberation over its application — a process that typically takes 5-7 business days — amounted to a denial. That suit was dismissed in 2020 after a federal judge determined that TNB had not suffered an injury in fact and therefore lacked standing to bring the case.

House Democrats urge bank regulators to crack down on bank mergers — House Democrats led by Rep. Maxine Waters, ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, are asking regulators to update their merger review procedures. The lawmakers said they are concerned about how long the regulators are taking to update their merger guidelines in light of President Biden's executive order from 2021 ordering agencies to revamp the bank merger review process. "We've seen the harm that unbridled market consolidation poses to consumers and entrepreneurs when the biggest financial institutions get even bigger through mergers," the lawmakers said in a letter addressed to the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Department of Justice. The letter comes after Capital One announced its intent to acquire Discover, which could form a credit card behemoth. The Democratic lawmakers said that this would allow the combined bank, which would be the sixth largest in the country, to control too large a portion of the market.

West Virginia treasurer warns new banks of ESG-based blacklisting | West Virginia State Treasurer Riley Moore warned six more financial institutions that they may be placed on the state's "Restricted Financial Institution List" if they are found to be "boycotting" the fossil fuels industry. The blacklist is authorized in a 2022 state law spearheaded by Moore authorizing the State Treasury to restrict financial institutions that "have publicly stated they will refuse, terminate or limit doing business with coal, oil or natural gas companies" without a reasonable business purpose. The treasurer can disqualify a restricted financial institution from the competitive bidding process or from any other official selection process; refuse to enter into a banking contract with a restricted financial institution based on its restricted status; and require an agreement by the financial institution not to engage in boycott of energy companies for the duration of the contract.

BankThink The CFPB's Section 1033 rule is a good start, but could be much better | American Banker -- Last October, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau proposed a rule that, once implemented, will reshape how consumers interact with their personal financial data. As proposed, the CFPB's rule implementing Section 1033 of the Dodd-Frank Act would empower consumers to securely share data held in their checking, savings, credit card and digital wallet accounts with third-party providers of financial services. Given the obvious consumer benefits and protections included under the rule, it is no surprise that the CFPB's proposal has been met with support from consumer advocates, fintechs, financial institutions and both parties on Capitol Hill. The implications of this rule are profound: Enabling a financial services ecosystem based on consumer centricity has the potential to facilitate a more competitive and vibrant marketplace. However, to fully realize the transformative potential of the CFPB's rule, the CFPB should expand the range of covered account types under the rule, more thoughtfully consider how de-identified data may be utilized to benefit consumers and coordinate closely with the prudential regulators to ensure that third-party risk management guidance doesn't inadvertently undermine consumers' ability to exert their personal financial data rights.A variety of third-party tools exist today to help improve consumers' financial well-being. Regardless of the use case, all of these platforms require, as a condition of their functionality, connectivity to data held in accounts at financial institutions or other data providers. While a good deal of these applications need access only to data held in a checking, savings or credit card account, many of these third-party tools require access to data held at accounts not currently covered under the proposed rule. These tools allow households that depend on public benefits to better manage their monthly finances, enable access to retirement savings or investments and help consumers shop for auto or mortgage loans, for example. The absence of these accounts from the framework that the CFPB will soon create under its Section 1033 rulemaking risks creating a two-tiered financial system under which holders of some accounts are provided with certain rights and protections while other accounts aren't afforded the same treatment. The CFPB heard from a wide range of stakeholders during its public comment period, including banks, advocates, fintechs and others, each of whom advocated for a more expansive set of covered accounts. The bureau should heed that call.The CFPB should also revise its proposed limitations on secondary data usage, focusing on the crucial distinction between consumer-identifiable data and de-identified data. The restrictions proposed under the rule would inadvertently stifle existing use cases with significant consumer and economic benefits including product enhancements, credit model improvements and vital economic and policy research. Allowing de-identified data to continue to be used for these important use cases would not only align with the treatment of de-identified data in other contexts, such as HIPAA, current FTC data privacy guidance and state data privacy laws, it would also continue to support the myriad benefits that the usage of this data has facilitated for years. In doing so, the CFPB would not only adhere to its core objectives but also support a framework where consumer rights and innovative progress go hand in hand, ensuring that the benefits of technological advancements are realized fully by consumers, without compromising their privacy or security. Lenders collected an estimated $25 billion in additional interest income last year by raising the average margin on annual percentage rates, or the amount above the prime rate, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.Additionally, the CFPB should, in concert with the prudential bank regulators, clearly provide that bilateral data access agreements between financial institutions and third-party tools will not be necessary to enable consumer-permissioned data access for covered data once the Section 1033 rule is finalized. As proposed, the rule would empower financial institutions to restrict consumer-permissioned data access requests on third-party risk management grounds. In practice, some financial institutions have articulated their interpretation of regulatory guidance to mean an ongoing requirement that the thousands of financial institutions across the country must each have bespoke data access agreements executed with every third party a consumer chooses to utilize. Such an approach, of course, is neither scalable nor practical, and would undermine the market competition and consumer centricity intentions of the CFPB's rule. Clear guidance from the regulators that unambiguously provides that bilateral data access agreements are not necessary to facilitate consumer-permissioned, third-party data access requests for covered data under a final Section 1033 rule is necessary. The proposed rule on personal financial data rights is not merely a regulatory update; it is a visionary step toward creating a financial ecosystem that is inclusive, innovative and competitive. By addressing these key areas, the CFPB can help build a future where financial services are deeply aligned with consumer needs in a vibrant and competitive marketplace, ensuring that the rights to personal financial data are not only recognized but also actively protected.

Biden seeks to curb sharing of consumer data with hostile countries - President Biden issued an executive order on Wednesday that aims to increase safeguards on Americans' personal data, extending the reach of a data privacy push that is already underway at financial regulators. The White House's action, which focuses on protecting information like genomic data, biometric data and financial data, is meant to guard against the transfer or sale of customer data to hostile countries. The executive order urges the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to take further steps toprotect Americans from data aggregators. Following the White House's announcement, CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a written statement that the agency will be proposing new rules later this year to "rein in these abuses." "Today's executive order is a reminder of the urgent need to protect the personal data of Americans," Chopra said in the statement. "Corporate data brokers are assembling and selling extremely sensitive data on all of us, including U.S. military personnel, to foreign purchasers." Biden's executive order directs several federal agencies, including the Department of Justice, the Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Veterans Affairs, to establish regulations and security standards to limit access to data by "countries of concern." Specific countries weren't listed in the White House's fact sheet, but other news reports named China and Russia. Protections should also cover information obtained through "commercial means," such as via investment, vendor and employment relationships, according to the order.

Warren rallies progressives to urge regulators to block Capital One-Discover deal — A group of progressive lawmakers led by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have asked the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve to blockCapital One's proposed acquisition of Discover. In a letter to acting Comptroller Michael Hsu and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Warren, alongside eleven representatives — including Reps. Katie Porter, D-Calif., and Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, D-N.Y. — told the bank regulators that the deal would limit competition. "This merger is bad for consumers," the lawmakers said in the letter. "To protect consumers and financial stability, we urge you to block this merger and strengthen your proposed policy statement to prevent harmful deals in the future."The two regulators, alongside the Department of Justice, will play a role in reviewing the proposed deal. While the Biden administration has signaled more scrutiny toward financial industry consolidation, Capital One could make a convincing argument that combining with Discover would help the bank better compete with Visa and Mastercard when it comes to the credit card market. The lawmakers also pointed to the two firms' enforcement history with the regulators as evidence that the bank regulators should reject the acquisition. For example, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in 2012 ordered Capital One to repay $140 million to customers with low credit scores who they said were misled into paying for additional products. And just last year, Discover received a consent order from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. that required the firm to improve its consumer compliance and related corporate governance.

BankThink: The CFPB must take the opportunity to lead on consumer data security | American Banker --Trust. It's a small word, with tremendous implications — particularly when it comes to safeguarding banking information. The underlying foundation of the banking system is reliant on customers trusting that a bank will keep their money safe. Banks have earned customers' trust, particularly from customers using online and mobile banking, following billions of dollars and decades of investment in security and privacy protections. Much like our vaults, our customers trust us to safeguard their most valuable possessions.And — our customers value their own data. They want their data to be secure and to control who they share it with and how it's used.The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's long-awaited proposed rulemaking on Personal Financial Data Rights is an opportunity to develop a clear framework to guide how banks, fintechs and data aggregators work together to create a secure data sharing ecosystem while protecting consumers.This rulemaking comes at a critical time.Most consumers today have accounts at multiple financial institutions and increasingly use a variety of digital apps to share their financial data between those institutions and apps. Banks, big tech firms and fintechs rely on consumer-permissioned data sharing to provide customers with helpful, innovative tools for budgeting, borrowing, tax preparation, retirement planning and other services. Make no mistake — innovation in financial services has created tremendous opportunities for customers to save, invest, budget, get verified and move money.Many companies, including banks, have made significant investments over the past several years to make permissioned data sharing work better, but the current patchwork system has some critical flaws, particularly an overreliance on screen-scraping and a lack of consumer transparency and control. Now, the CFPB has a great opportunity to make the entire system work better through thoughtful, well-calibrated regulation.We are overwhelmingly supportive of our customers who want to share their financial data with the apps they use, recognizing that the ability to share data can have profound impacts on their financial lives.But if that data is not handled securely, and customers lose control over its use, innovation and progress will be damaged — not to mention the lives of real people. Setting and enforcing high standards for protecting customer data is not, as some might claim, a pretext for stifling data sharing, slowing innovation or blocking competition. Rather, protecting consumer data is the best way to preserve trust and fuel sustainable innovation in the long run.Bank of America escrow case met with skepticism in Supreme Court -- The U.S. Supreme Court seemed skeptical of both sides in a case involving state preemption of the National Banking Act.. Whether national banks need to pay interest on mortgage escrow accounts in New York — and likely elsewhere — will turn on how the Court determines what constitutes substantial interference with their activities. But the justices in their questioning seemed to be "very uncomfortable" in trying to explain what is meant by the relevant statute, the National Banking Act, said Joseph Lynyak, a partner at the law firm of Dorsey & Whitney. "The basis of the problem is the very poorly drafted statutory language that adopted Section 25b when Dodd-Frank was written," he said in a statement. "For example, several of the Justices wondered whether 'significantly interferes' should be understood purely as statutory language, or whether the term was intended to be understood as used in the Barnett Banks decision (which is directly named in Section 25b)." The justices asked tough questions for both sides: petitioners Alex Cantero, Saul Hymes and Ilana Harwayne-Gidansky and for Bank of America. The Solicitor General also appeared before the Court after the petitioners spoke. In hearing the arguments, the justices suggested that, depending on the interpretation, nothing or virtually every action could be preempted, Lynyak noted. Answering a question from Justice Brett Kavanaugh, petitioner attorney Jonathan Taylor admitted "I would concede that it's not a bright-line test. Congress didn't want a bright-line test." In response to Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Lisa Blatt, representing Bank of America, attempted to establish when the preemption would apply. "When the state dictates the attribute of the product and service as opposed to the interaction with the consumer, it's preempted," said Blatt. "Under that definition, you have banking-specific laws that aren't preempted, like laws that prohibit racial discrimination and whatnot. You have laws that prohibit fraud by banks."

CFPB finds 'cause' to supervise installment lender World Acceptance -- Installment lender World Acceptance Corp. is back in the crosshairs of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. On Friday the CFPB said that for the first time it was invoking a special authority that allows it to supervise nonbank financial firms that pose a risk to consumers. The CFPB determined that it has "reasonable cause" to supervise World Acceptance due to consumer complaints about the way the company markets, sells and bundles loans with insurance products. The order is not a finding that World Acceptance has engaged in wrongdoing, but rather is a determination that the company has met the legal requirements for supervision, the bureau said. The order mandating supervision was signed by CFPB Director Rohit Chopra in November but was released publicly because World Acceptance has contested the CFPB's findings. "The CFPB has determined that World Acceptance Corporation has met the legal requirements for supervision," the bureau said in a press release. "The CFPB is making this order public to provide transparency about how it assesses risks using consumer complaints and other factors."

CFPB warns of kickbacks and abuse by comparison-shopping websites --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued guidance about comparison-shopping websites and lead generators, warning that companies may be deceiving consumers and manipulating results by taking kickbacks from banks and lenders to steer borrowers to specific financial products. The CFPB said Thursday that it was providing guidance to law enforcement agencies and regulators on ways in which digital intermediaries "can break the law when they steer consumers to certain products or lenders because of kickbacks." The CFPB did not identify any companies by name. But the field of comparison websites is crowded and most have financial relationships with banks, credit card issuers and mortgage lenders. Many community banks and credit unions have trouble competing because they often get buried at the bottom of search pages even though their products may offer higher yields or be better suited to the consumer. The top comparison-shopping websites include NerdWallet, Credit Karma, Bankrate.com, WalletHub and LendingTree, among others. A few sites have launched their own credit cards, raising concerns about whether they are pushing their own products to consumers.

CPPIB's $1 office tower deal uncovers anxiety among longtime buyers - Canadian pension funds have been among the world’s most prolific buyers of real estate, starting a revolution that inspired retirement plans around the globe to emulate them. Now the largest of them is taking steps to limit its exposure to the most-beleaguered property type — office buildings.Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has done three deals at discounted prices, selling its interests in a pair of Vancouver towers, a business park in Southern California and a redevelopment project in Manhattan, with the New York stake offloaded for the eyebrow-raising price of just US$1. At the end of last year, the fund sold its 29 per cent stake in Manhattan’s 360 Park Avenue South for US$1 to one of its partners, Boston Properties Inc., which also agreed to assume CPPIB’s share of the project’s debt. The investors, along with Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC Pte., bought the 20-story building in 2021 with plans to redevelop it into a modern workspace. Boston Properties said last month that the selling partner — which the company didn’t name — had already spent US$71 million on the project, but severing its ties released it from an obligation to commit an additional US$46 million to the effort. Around the same time, CPPIB sold its 45 per cent stake in Santa Monica Business Park, which the fund also owned with Boston Properties, for US$38 million. That’s a discount of almost 75 per cent to what CPPIB paid for its share of the property in 2018. The deal came just after the landlords signed a lease with social media company Snap Inc. that required they spend additional capital to improve the campus, Boston Properties chief executive Owen Thomas said on a conference call. The two Vancouver towers, co-owned with another Canadian pension fund, were different in that they didn’t need substantial new investment and had Amazon.com Inc. already in place as the major tenant. But last month’s sale price of about $300 million was down more than 20 per cent from where the property’s value was assessed at in 2023, data from Altus Group shows. The worry is those deals may set an example for other major investors seeking a way out of the turmoil too.“It’s the opposite of a vote of confidence for office,” said John Kim, an analyst tracking real estate companies for BMO Capital Markets. “My question is, who could be next?”Anxiety over office buildings has swept the financial world as the persistence of both remote work and higher borrowing costs undercuts the economic fundamentals that made the properties good investments in the first place. A wave of banks from New York to Tokyo recently conceded that loans they made against offices may never be fully repaid, sending their share prices plunging and prompting fears of a broader credit crunch.But the real test will be what price office buildings actually trade for, and there have been precious few examples since interest rates started rising. That’s why industry watchers see discounted deals like CPPIB’s as an ominous sign for the market. The pension fund isn’t actively backing away from offices, but it’s not looking to increase its office holdings either, according to a person with knowledge of its strategy. And where a property requires additional investment, CPPIB might simply look to sell so it can put that cash somewhere it can get higher returns instead, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing a private matter. Peter Ballon, CPPIB’s global head of real estate, declined to comment on the recent deals, but said the fund has continued to invest in office buildings, including a recently completed, 37-story tower in Vancouver.“Selling is an integral part of our investment process,” Ballon said in an emailed statement. “We exit when the asset has maximized its value and we are able to redeploy proceeds into higher and better returns in other assets, sectors and markets, including office buildings.”CPPIB’s $590.8-billion fund is one of the world’s largest pools of capital, and its $41.4-billion portfolio of real estate — stretching from Stockholm to Bengaluru — includes almost every property type, from warehouses, to life sciences complexes, to apartment blocks. While that scale would mitigate any potential losses from individual transactions, it also means even a small shift in CPPIB’s office appetite has the power to cause ripple effects in the market.

"Who Could Be Next": Top Canadian Pension Fund Sells Manhattan Office Tower For $1, Sparking Firesale Panic - New York during the inflationary surge of the late 70s and early 80s was a mythical place where one could purchase a Park avenue penthouse for $1 (while assuming the copious debt, of course). Now, thanks to the brutal bear hug of the highest interest rates in 40 years and the ongoing CRE crisis, those legendary days have made a comeback to the Big Apple, if only in the realm of commercial real estate for now. According to Bloomberg, Canadian pension funds - which until recently had been among the world’s most prolific buyers of real estate, starting a revolution that inspired retirement plans around the globe to emulate them because, in the immortal words of Ben Bernanke, Canadian real estate prices never go down... ... are finally realizing that gravity does exist . And so, the largest one among them is taking steps to limit its exposure to the most-beleaguered commercial property type — office buildings. Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has recently done three deals at deeply discounted prices, selling its interests in a pair of Vancouver towers, and a business park in Southern California, but it was its Manhattan office tower redevelopment project that shocked the industry: the Canadian asset manager sold its stake for just $1. The worry now is that such firesales will set an example for other major investors seeking a way out of the turmoil too, forcing a wholesale crash in the Manhattan real estate market which until now had managed to avoid real price discovery. Indeed, as Goldman wrote earlier this week, while office vacancy rates are expected to keep rising well into the next decade.. ... the average price of many nonviable offices has fallen only 11% to $307/sqft since 2019 (left side of Exhibit 6). The bank goes on to note that in the hardest-hit cities, as many as 14-16% of offices may no longer be viable, and their average transaction prices have already declined by 15-35%. However, because of lack of liquidity in this market, these recent transaction prices have not yet started to reflect the current values of many existing offices. Goldman ominously concludes that "alternative valuation methods, like those that are based on repeat-sales and appraisal values, suggest that actual office values may be far lower than the average transaction price." Well, a $1 dollar price would certainly confirm that actual office values are far, far lower (more in the full Goldman note available to professional subscribers). And going back to the historic firesale, at the end of last year the Canadian fund sold its 29% stake in Manhattan’s 360 Park Avenue South for $1 to one of its partners, Boston Properties, which also agreed to assume CPPIB’s share of the project’s debt. The investors, along with Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC Pte., bought the 20-story building in 2021 with plans to redevelop it into a modern workspace.“It’s the opposite of a vote of confidence for office,” said John Kim, an analyst tracking real estate companies for BMO Capital Markets. “My question is, who could be next?”As office building anxiety has swept the financial world, as the persistence of both remote work and higher borrowing costs undercuts the economic fundamentals that made the properties good investments in the first place, a wave of banks from New York to Tokyo recently conceded that loans they made against offices may never be fully repaid, sending their share prices plunging and prompting fears of a broader credit crunch. But the real test will be what price office buildings actually trade for - especially once the hundreds of billions of loan backing the properties mature....

"Heightened Risks": Goldman Points To Leading CRE Indicator That Shows Pain Train Not Over - Commercial real estate is the third-largest asset class, trailing only behind fixed income and equities. Despite the "Magnificent Seven" driving broad equity indexes to new highs, CRE markets are experiencing a worsening downturn, particularly in the office sector. A series of notable CRE loan defaults and regional bank failures underscores this mess. Goldman's senior equity research analyst Susan Maklari penned a note for clients on Monday titled "Non-Residential Construction: January Data Indicates Soft Start to the Year" (avail. to pro subs in the usual place). Maklari cited data from the Dodge Momentum Index, a 12-month leading indicator of construction spending for nonresidential buildings. She found that the index rose 0.1% in January to 184.1 from 183.9 in December but was down 8% from 199.3 a year ago. "We will continue to monitor readings in the coming months given heightened risks surrounding commercial sub-sectors," she said. Meanwhile, the Architecture Billings Index is in contraction territory. Here's more from the analystThe Architecture Billings Index (ABI) decreased to 46.2 from 46.5 in December. The commercial/industrial component fell to 47.0, from 47.2 in December, while the pace of institutional decline improved to 48.5 from 47.9 last month. Despite weaker backlogs, we believe the macro backdrop will support activity in certain verticals this year. We note the ABI is a leading indicator of spending for non-residential construction activity, with an average lead time of 9-12 months. Our guess is that a continued gloomy outlook for CRE construction spending and waning demand for construction products and services will persist this year because of tight financial conditions. And let's not forget Morgan Stanley's latest note explaining that the "greatest headwind" facing the office segment of the CRE market is "years of supply."

Goldman Says Office Tower Prices Must Plunge 50% For Housing Conversion To Make Sense --As office tower vacancies continue to rise nationwide, many of these buildings are becoming economically nonviable workspaces, raising the question of what can be done with millions of square feet of underutilized space. Simultaneously, the US housing market faces a severe shortage, leaving investors and lawmakers to ponder whether underutilized office space can be transformed into multifamily buildings. Goldman analyst Jan Hatzius uses a discounted cash flow model to show that the current acquisition costs of office towers are still too high for conversion to multifamily buildings, indicating that offices will likely remain underutilized in the medium term. Hatzius pointed out that the viable point where office tower conversions would make financial sense would be a further price decline of 50%. About 4% of the nation's office buildings could be slated for conversion projects into housing, with the share expected to jump as the office vacancy rate is forecasted to reach 18% in 2033 from about 14% this year. Many of these nonviable towers are still overvalued and not cheap enough for conversion because of financing costs. Even with San Francisco's office industry in a meltdown and prices having already tumbled 35% since 2019, these levels are still too high.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac regulator revises credit change timeline -- In response to industry feedback, the Federal Housing Finance Agency has redrawn some parts of its tentative roadmap for rolling out legislatively mandated updates to its credit reporting and scoring system. The bi-merge credit reporting requirement done in conjunction with the transition away from the current FICO Classic score will occur in the fourth quarter of 2025, rather than during the first-quarter of this year as initially proposed.Industry groups such as the Housing Policy Council have asked that the FHFA allow the bi-merge approach — under which two, rather than three, reports from national credit bureaus may be used — to occur later in the game."Synchronizing bi-merge credit reporting with the implementation of the new credit score model requirements will reduce complexity for market participants, which is a key objective of our transition efforts," FHFA Director Sandra Thompson said in a news release.Some of the key changes made to the schedule for bringing advanced credit metrics to government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are pertinent to the implementation of advanced scores.The agency also is changing the implementation timeline for the credit score update more specifically called for in the legislation, accelerating an implementation step for Vantagescore 4.0.

Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Reports Surge in Multifamily Serious Delinquencies Brief excerpt: This is no surprise, but still a very large monthly increase in the delinquency rate. The multifamily rate increased recently as rent growth has slowed (and rents are falling in some areas), vacancy rates have increased, and borrowing rates have increased sharply. Freddie Mac reports that the multi-family serious delinquency rate increased sharply in January to 0.44% from 0.28% in December, and up from 0.12% in January 2023. This graph shows the Freddie multi-family serious delinquency rate since 2012.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey, "Activity stalled" -"Higher rates in recent weeks have stalled activity". From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications decreased 5.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 23, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates were little changed last week, with the 30-year conforming rate declining slightly to 7.04 percent but remaining about a quarter percentage point higher than the start of the year,” . “Higher rates in recent weeks have stalled activity, and last week it dropped more for those seeking FHA and VA refinances. Purchase activity is running 12 percent behind last year’s pace, but our January Builder Application Survey results showed that applications to buy new homes were up 19 percent compared to last year. This disparity continues to highlight how the lack of existing inventory is the primary constraint to increases in purchase volume. However, mortgage rates above 7 percent sure don’t help.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 7.04 percent from 7.06 percent, with points increasing to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 12% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust. Other than two weeks last October, this is the lowest level since 1995.The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flatlined since then.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices).This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 5.5% Annual Home Price Gain for Calendar 2023 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.0%, up from a 6.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous month. San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in December, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase. Portland showed a 0.3% increase this month, holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth. ... The U.S. National Index showed a continued decrease of 0.4%, while the 20-City Composite and 10- City Composite posted 0.3% and 0.2% month-over-month decreases respectively in December. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index, the 20-City Composite, and the 10-City Composite all posted month-over-month increases of 0.2%. “U.S. home prices faced significant headwinds in the fourth quarter of 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued its streak of seven consecutive record highs in 2023. Ten of 20 markets beat prior records, with San Diego registering an 8.9% gain and Las Vegas the fastest rising market in December, after accounting for seasonal impacts.” “2023 U.S. housing gains haven’t followed such a synchronous pattern since the COVID housing boom. The term ‘a rising tide lifts all boats’ seems appropriate given broad-based performance in the U.S. housing sector. All 20 markets reported yearly gains for the first time this year, with four markets rising over 8%. Portland eked out a positive annual gain after 11 months of declines. Regionally, the Midwest and Northeast both experienced the greatest annual appreciation with 6.7%.” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index is up 0.2% in December (SA) and is at a new all-time high. The Composite 20 index is up 0.2% (SA) in December and is also at a new all-time high. The National index is up 0.2% (SA) in December and is also at a new all-time high. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

Comments on December Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 5.5% year-over-year in December; FHFA: House Prices Up 6.5% Q4 over Q4. Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). December closing prices include some contracts signed in August, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.19%. This was the eleventh consecutive MoM increase, but the smallest increase since prices declined (SA) in January 2023. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased in 13 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis. Seasonally adjusted, San Francisco has fallen 8.7% from the recent peak, Seattle is down 7.0% from the peak, Portland down 4.7%, and Phoenix is down 3.2%.

Housing February 26th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.7% Week-over-week, Up 15.6% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.7% week-over-week. It is likely inventory bottomed in mid-February, as opposed to mid-April in 2023. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of February 23th, inventory was at 498 thousand (7-day average), compared to 494 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up more than double from the record low for the same week in 2023, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 15.6% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 12.9%), and down 39.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 39.7%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed a little. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent (AMH) - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Update on American Homes for Rent (AMH)A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler:Below is a table derived from the Q4/2023 (and earlier) “Earnings Release and Supplemental Information Package” from American Homes for Rent (AMH), a large institutional investor in single-family rental homes. Also below is the table shown in last week’s report for Invitation Homes (INVH). Recall that INVH said that last quarter it was focused on improving its occupancy rate and told teams to “negotiate” to do so. AMH, in contrast, saw its occupancy rate decline last quarter.

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January -- The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 661 thousand. The previous three months were revised down.Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.5 percent above the revised December rate of 651,000 and is 1.8 percent above the January 2023 estimate of 649,000.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply was unchanged in January at 8.3 months from 8.3 months in December. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 456,000. This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate."Sales were below expectations of 675 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were revised down.

New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January; Median New Home Price is Down 15% from the Peak -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales at 661,000 Annual Rate in January:The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 661 thousand. The previous three months were revised down.Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 661,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 1.5 percent above the revised December rate of 651,000 and is 1.8 percent above the January 2023 estimate of 649,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales were close to pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply was unchanged in January at 8.3 months from 8.3 months in December. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 456,000. This represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate. Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. The third graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973The inventory of completed homes for sale (red) - at 80 thousand - is more than double the record low of 32 thousand in 2021 and early 2022. This is close to the normal level of completed homes for sale.The inventory of homes under construction (blue) at 270 thousand is very high but is about 15% below the cycle peak in July 2022. The inventory of homes not started is at 106 thousand - this is the all-time high.

Worst Monthly Spike of “Core Services” PCE Inflation in 22 Years, and Not Just Housing: Powell’s Gonna Have Another Cow By Wolf Richter -- Over the past year or so, the Fed has been intensely discussing inflation in “core services,” which is where inflation had shifted to in 2022, from goods inflation which had spiked into mid-2022 but then cooled dramatically. So “core services” is where it’s at. Core services is where consumers spend the majority of their money. Core services are all services except energy services. Core services inflation has been behaving badly for months, and in January, it spiked out the wazoo. The “core services” PCE price index spiked to 7.15% annualized in January from December, the worst month-to-month jump in 22 years (blue line), according to index data released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Drivers of the spike were non-housing measures as well as housing inflation. More on each category in a moment. The six-month moving average, which irons out the month-to-month volatility, accelerated to 3.95% annualized, the worst since July, after having gotten stuck at the 3.5% level for three months in a row (red). The bad behavior of core services inflation that we have been lamenting since June – and which was confirmed earlier this month by the nasty surprise in the CPI – is why Fed governors have said this year in near unison that they’re in no hurry to cut rates, but have taken a wait-and-see approach. And now the concept of rate hikes is cropping up in their speeches again. For example, Fed governor Michelle Bowman said in the speech yesterday, that she was “willing to raise the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or reversed.” Even year-over-year, core services inflation has now reversed and accelerated to 4.1%. Core services – services without energy services, such as electricity – are grouped into seven PCE price indices, and we’ll look at them individually. This is where consumers do the majority of their spending. The month-to-month data in these categories of core services can be crazy volatile (blue in the charts below), so we’ll focus on the six-month moving average, which irons out this volatility and shows the recent trends (red in the charts below).

Surprising Strength: U.S. Personal Income Surges in January Despite Consumption Contraction - In January, personal income in the United States saw a notable increase of $233.7 billion, reflecting a robust 1.0% monthly growth rate, surpassing expectations. Disposable personal income (DPI), which accounts for personal income minus personal current taxes, also experienced a noteworthy rise of $67.6 billion, equivalent to a 0.3% increase. Concurrently, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) saw a $43.9 billion uptick, representing a 0.2% increase. The PCE price index exhibited a 0.3% increase in January, with a more significant 0.4% rise when excluding food and energy. Meanwhile, real DPI witnessed a marginal decrease of less than 0.1%, and real PCE contracted by 0.1%, influenced by a 1.1% decrease in goods spending and a 0.4% increase in services spending.Surprising Strength: U.S. Personal Income Surges in January Despite Consumption Contraction_1 The surge in current-dollar personal income for January was primarily fueled by increases in government social benefits, personal income receipts on assets, and compensation. Notably, social security benefits, driven by a 3.2% cost-of-living adjustment, and other government social benefits, primarily reflecting an increase in Affordable Care Act enrollments, played pivotal roles. Additionally, personal dividend income experienced growth, driven by information sourced from company financial statements. Breaking down the $43.9 billion increase in current-dollar PCE for January, a $121.0 billion rise in services spending partially offset a $77.0 billion decline in goods spending. Key contributors to the increase in services spending included housing and utilities, financial services and insurance (led by financial service charges, fees, and commissions), and healthcare (led by hospitals). Within goods spending, notable declines were observed in motor vehicles and parts (mainly new light trucks), gasoline and other energy goods (led by gasoline), and other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs). Personal outlays, which encompass the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments, increased by $54.3 billion in January. Personal saving reached $779.3 billion, and the personal saving rate stood at 3.8%. From a pricing perspective, the PCE price index for January increased by 0.3%, with services prices rising by 0.6%, and goods prices declining by 0.2%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased by 0.4%. On a year-over-year basis, the PCE price index for January rose by 2.4%, with services prices increasing by 3.9% and goods prices decreasing by 0.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased by 2.8% from the same month one year ago. Real PCE witnessed a slight decrease of 0.1% in January, with a 1.1% decrease in goods spending offset by a 0.4% increase in services spending. Notable declines in goods spending were led by motor vehicles and parts (mainly new light trucks), while services spending saw growth, particularly in housing and utilities. In terms of updates to personal income and outlays, estimates for July through December have been revised. These updates include changes in compensation, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance, reflecting updated third-quarter wage and salary data. Revised changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2017) dollar DPI and PCE, are provided for November and December.

Employees love remote work. But for young workers, it poses risks - After the pandemic led to a nationwide surge in remote work, many young Americans are now entering the workforce without going into an office. While work-from-home has given many employees welcomed flexibility, researchers are raising questions about whether it will hurt those beginning their careers. Workplace experts told The Hill that by entering the workforce remotely, early-career Americans may find it harder to form the relationships they need to thrive. Amy Glaser, senior vice president of staffing company Adecco, said that younger workers, especially Gen Zers, are uniquely equipped to enter the workplace remotely because they “grew up” online. “Through their technology experiences, many have the ability to self-service and resolve issues that other generations may struggle with while working remotely,” Glaser said. And many Gen Zers, she added, have thrived in their first work experiences, be that a job or internship, precisely because they worked from home. But working in-person often helps entry-level employees learn from experienced workers and pick up company culture more quickly than working remotely, Glaser added. “Employers can support remote entry-level talent through mentoring programs and on boarding processes that help them learn new skills and align with the company’s culture,” she said. Mentorship is something that Gen Z staffers are hungry for. One 2023 survey from Adobe found that 83 percent of Gen Z workers think a workplace mentor is crucial for their career, but only about half have such a mentor. Early-career workers may find it harder to form the types of connections with bosses or coworkers that help with creativity, learning and eventually career advancement, according to Richard Smith, a professor of practice at the Johns Hopkins Carey School of Business. A 2023 study from Alliance Virtual Offices found that remote workers were 38 percent less likely to receive bonuses but worked nearly twice as many overtime hours as their in-person colleagues.

Nonbinary student dead following beating by group in Oklahoma high school bathroom - A sophomore student, Nex Benedict, who identified as non-binary, died this month following a severe beating by three older female students in a Owasso, Oklahoma, high school bathroom. According to Nex’s mother Sue Benedict, who spoke to the Independent, on February 7 Nex was in a fight along with a transgender student against three older girls in a girls bathroom during which Nex was knocked to the ground, hitting their head. Nex suffered severe head injuries from the altercation. According to the police the fight was “broken up by other students who were present in the restroom and a school staff member who was supervising outside of the restroom.” Nex had been bullied due to their gender identity since early 2023. Far-right Republican Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt signed an anti-transgender bathroom ban in early 2022 mandating students use restrooms that match their sex listed at birth. In text messages released to local media posthumously by the family, Nex said that those who had “jumped” them “had been bullying me and my friends and I got tired of it so I poured some water on them and all 3 came after me. School did not report to the police and is probably getting sued.” Nex also wrote that the school “lost the girls after they made me and my friends separate and one of my friends had to be escorted to his bus because they couldn’t find them.” The Independent reported, “Ms Benedict said she was furious that the school had failed to call an ambulance or the police. She said the school then informed her Nex was being suspended for two weeks.” Nex’s mother described them as a straight-A student who liked the videogames Ark and Minecraft, was devoted to their cat Zeus, and was “going places.” Nex’s sister Malia Pila, who is also LGBTQ, told the Independent that gender identity in the family “was not an issue nor anything that anybody cared about.” Nex’s mother took them to Bailey Medical Center in Owasso for treatment. That night they fell asleep listening to music with a sore head. When they were both getting ready for an appointment in Tulsa the next morning Nex suddenly collapsed. EMT personnel found Nex was not breathing, and pronounced them dead that evening in the hospital. Nex’s family released the following statement: “While various investigations are still pending, the facts currently known by the family, some of which have been released to the public, are troubling at best. We urge those tasked with investigating and prosecuting all potentially liable parties to do so fully, fairly and expediently. Notwithstanding, the family is independently interviewing witnesses and collecting all available evidence.'

Dr. Phil Shocks 'The View' Hosts By Slamming Impact Of COVID Lockdowns On Children - Dr. Phil left The View hosts stunned after revealing the true impact COVID lockdowns had on children. During an appearance on the ABC show, the television host began by explaining the harm smart phones and social media had wrought on childhood development. “Kids stopped living their lives and started watching people live their lives and so we saw the biggest spike and the highest levels of depression, anxiety, loneliness and suicidality since records have been kept and it’s just continues on and on and on,” said Phil McGraw. That narrative was palatable to the hosts, but when McGraw used the same logic to slam COVID lockdowns, the hosts bristled. “Then COVID hits ten years later and the same agencies that knew that are the agencies that shut down the schools for two years – who does that? Who takes away the support system for these children?” Dr. Phil also pointed out that COVID lockdowns prevented interventions for children who were being violently and sexually abused. Whoopi Goldberg then shot back claiming “they were trying to save kids’ lives,” to which McGraw responded by pointing out that school children were almost completely unaffected by COVID. Goldberg then tried to argue that this was thanks to the lockdown, before another host confronted Dr. Phil by saying, “Are you saying no school children died of COVID?” “I’m saying it was the safest group, they were the less vulnerable group and they suffered and will suffer more from the mismanagement of COVID than they will from the exposure to COVID and that’s not an opinion, that’s a fact,” said McGraw. The audience then started applauding, something which triggered Goldberg to immediately scramble to go to break.

US college students need to go away: Why study abroad is essential to our future -- Feb. 26 is Study Abroad Day, making now an opportune time to reflect on the state of education abroad. Twenty years ago, the congressionally-appointed Commission on the Abraham Lincoln Study Abroad Fellowship Program set an ambitious goal for the United States: send one million college students abroad each year by 2010. Today, a few years removed from the crippling effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, we remain far short of this goal, with less than 200,000 students studying abroad, amounting to 1 percent of all U.S. college students. This is to the detriment of our students, overall U.S. competitiveness, and our country’s standing on the global stage. Some may even argue—with an increasingly polarized climate on campuses mirroring the growing divide across ideological lines in U.S. society—risking the very fabric and functioning of our democracy as well.Student interest is not the issue. We know that a majority (72 percent) of college students express a desire to study abroad. And universities are doing their part by offering safe educational overseas programs that reflect innovations in technology and the changing educational and workforce landscape. Yet only 10 percent of students study abroad before they graduate.At issue, in our view, is that we have not boldly and loudly communicated to students the positive effects of study abroad on their career opportunities. We have not, despite the ample evidence, convinced the broader public that study abroad is vital to U.S. global engagement and national and economic security. We have not done enough to make education abroad affordable for every college student.An education abroad experience is imperative on the individual and societal level for many reasons. For one, it enables students to develop critical skills needed to compete in today’s global economy, including foreign language fluency, strong problem-solving, and analytical capability, a tolerance for ambiguity, and cross-cultural communication skills and understanding.These skills are increasingly in demand in a globalized workplace. It is estimated that 39 million jobs in the United States are tied to international trade. NACE’s 2024 Job Outlook Survey finds problem-solving, teamwork, and flexibility/adaptability among the top skills employers are looking for this year—all skills that students can develop while abroad. Recent studies also show a positive correlation between students who study abroad and higher grade point average and degree completion rates, including among first generation college students and those from underrepresented backgrounds.Yet what seems even more important these days is how the study abroad experience is so well suited to serve our democracy and sustain civil society. We need a citizenry that can embrace the discomfort that comes with discourse and disagreement and navigate difference with humility and respect. Students who find themselves negotiating a new context while abroad learn greater empathy and perspective. They also have a greater appreciation for other cultures than those who do not. Students are also more civically engaged after they return, benefiting local communities and fortifying our nation’s identity as a beacon of democracy and justice.Further, major challenges such as climate change, public health pandemics, migration, and forced displacement require global solutions. The U.S. needs policy makers, entrepreneurs, business leaders, and scientists with the tools to collaborate across borders or we will be left behind.

Harvard faces subpoena deadline in House antisemitism probe. Here’s what to know - Harvard University is staring down a Monday deadline after the House Education Committee issued unprecedented subpoenas against school officials in its investigation into antisemitism on the elite college’s campus, sparking concerns of deteriorating academic freedom. The GOP-controlled panel and Harvard have battled for months over documents lawmakers requested that dive into how students have been disciplined for antisemitism and the conversations school officials have had in how to address the issue. “Harvard’s continued failure to satisfy the Committee’s requests is unacceptable. I will not tolerate delay and defiance of our investigation while Harvard’s Jewish students continue to endure the firestorm of antisemitism that has engulfed its campus. If Harvard is truly committed to combating antisemitism, it has had every opportunity to demonstrate its commitment with actions, not words,” Education Chairwoman Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) said. The fight escalated in February after the committee issued its first ever subpoena against a university, which some argue is part of a larger attack by conservatives on higher education.

3,000 academic workers at Toronto’s York University set to begin strike action Monday - Some 3,000 teaching assistants (TAs), graduate assistants (GAs), researchers and contract faculty are set to walk off the job Monday at Toronto’s York University. They are demanding wage increases to keep pace with inflation and make up for years of concessions, and job security to put an end to precarious employment. At a general members’ meeting last Friday, the workers voted by a large majority to reject management’s “final offer,” which came after more than six months of “bargaining” between York University and Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) Local 3903. The reality is that the chief purpose of this “bargaining” was to delay a strike as long as possible while the university administrators and CUPE bureaucrats work out how to impose a sellout on the workers. CUPE declared its readiness to continue negotiating over the weekend in an attempt to avert the strike at the last minute, but its communication officer admitted Sunday morning that the university was taking no “serious steps” to prevent the walkout. The strike takes place under conditions of a series of militant struggles by workers across Canada and could be developed into the spearhead of a broad working-class-led movement against austerity and attacks on workers’ rights. In the same city, at the University of Toronto (UofT), around 8,000 academic and support staff are poised to go on strike over the same issues being fought out at York as of March 4. On the transit system, hundreds of TTC workers have voted to launch their first strike in over a decade. Major strikes in recent months have been waged by more than a half-million Quebec public sector workers and Toronto-area supermarket workers. However, the CUPE leadership is bitterly hostile to any strategy based on mobilizing the broader working class, along with students, who must contend with rising tuition fees and student debt, in support of a strike at York. Their aim is to conduct the struggle on the lowest possible “collective bargaining” level, by hermetically sealing off the strikers from their strongest allies on campus and beyond—i.e., to restrict it entirely to the chosen terrain of the university-administration employer and the Ontario Tory government, which stands four-square behind it. University management, meanwhile, is waging a ruthless struggle with the support of all levels of government to attack workers’ rights. It has seized upon the hard-right Doug Ford-led Ontario government’s gutting of public funding for universities to legitimize its demands for real-terms pay cuts and a continuation of the highly exploitative working arrangements that see poorly paid graduate students and contract faulty performing the bulk of teaching of the university’s programs.

Steep rise in antidepressant use noted in young people during COVID, especially among teen girls - The COVID-19 pandemic likely exacerbated a growing mental health crisis among US teens and young adults, as evidenced by the sharp increase in antidepressant prescriptions written after March of 2020.These prescriptions are the focus of a study published today in Pediatrics, which shows that, after the pandemic began, prescriptions increased 130% among female adolescents ages 12 to 17 years and almost 60% among female young adults ages 18 to 25 years compared to rates seen in 2016 to 2019."Multiple studies suggest that rates of anxiety and depression among female adolescents increased during the pandemic," said first study author Kao-Ping Chua, MD, PhD, a pediatrician and researcher at University of Michigan Health in a press release from the University of Michigan. "These studies, coupled with our findings, suggest the pandemic exacerbated a pre-existing mental health crisis in this group." The study was based on antidepressant prescriptions dispensed to US individuals aged 12 to 25 years from 2016 to 2022 and included in the IQVIA Longitudinal Prescription Database, an all-payer national database covering 92% of the prescriptions dispensed in US pharmacies.From January 2016 to March 2020, the monthly prescription rate increased by 17.0% per month (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.2% to 18.8%), suggesting antidepressant use (most commonly selective-serotonin reuptake inhibitors, or SSRIs) was on the rise prepandemic. Beginning in March 2020, the authors found an increase of 10.8% per month for prescriptions."The monthly antidepressant dispensing rate increased 63.5% faster from March 2020 onwards compared with beforehand," the authors said. But the trend was seen only in females, not males. Monthly prescription rates rose 129.6% and 56.5% faster from March 2020 onwards compared with beforehand among females aged 12 to 17 years and 18 to 25 years, respectively, the authors said, but prescribing rates for males the same age dropped after the pandemic began.Before March of 2020, prescriptions for male teens were increasing steadily at 8.7% per month, but the pandemic was associated with a decrease in prescriptions."In December 2022, the antidepressant dispensing rate among male young adults was 0.1 (0.0%) higher than predicted by the counterfactual trend, compared with 403.8 (6.2%) higher among female young adults," the authors said.

Study estimates 134,000 missed cancer diagnoses in US in 2020 -- A new large study -- based on nationwide surveillance data suggests upwards of 134,000 cancer diagnoses were missed in the United States in the first 10 months of the COVID-19 pandemic, due to a combination of delayed screening and missed appointments."The longer cancer exists undetected, the lower the chances of positive patient outcomes. Every missed detection is a lost opportunity to beat cancer at its most treatable stage," said the paper's senior author, Krystle Lang Kuhs, PhD, MPH, in a University of Kentucky press release. The study, published in JAMA Oncology, was conducted by researchers at the University of Kentucky Markey Cancer Center and based on information on all 50 states from the US Cancer Statistics Public Use Database June 2023 release.The biggest drop in cancer diagnoses was between March and May 2020, when diagnoses were reduced by 28.6% from rates seen in 2018 and 2019. Overall, diagnoses dropped by 13.0% from March 2020 through December 2020.All told, these reductions equate to potentially 134,395 undiagnosed cancers during 2020 (95% prediction interval, 112,544 to 156,680).Cancers caught by annual screening were the most missed, with prostate cancer accounting for most potentially missed cases (22 ,950), followed by female breast (16,870) and lung (16,333) cancers, the authors said. After the first 3 months of the pandemic, the rate of female breast cancer detection rebounded, but rates remained low for colorectal, cervical, and lung cancers for the remainder of 2020."There will undoubtedly—and unfortunately—be a subsequent rise in cancer mortality. How substantial a rise and for how long will provide a more complete picture of the consequences of COVID-19 disruptions on the burden of cancer in the US," the authors concluded.

As home death rates in cancer patients rose unequally during COVID-19 in 2020, less palliative care given - The home death rate among cancer patients in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic increased 8.3% at the same time as the provision of specialized palliative care (SPC) declined 5.3%, with a smaller increase in home deaths among socioeconomically deprived patients given no SPC, according to a Canadian study published yesterday in JAMA Network Open.Researchers from Princess Margaret Cancer Centre in Toronto led the analysis of Ontario Cancer Registry data on 173,915 adults who died of cancer before the pandemic (March 16, 2015, to March 15, 2020) and in its first year (March 16, 2020, to March 15, 2021) by socioeconomic quintile (Q). Q1 indicated the least, Q3 indicated moderate, and Q5 indicated the most deprivation.The average patient age was 72.1 years, 54.1% were men, 86.0% lived in an urban area, and 49.6% had stage 4 cancer."Place of death is an important determinant of the end-of-life experience of patients with cancer and their caregivers and is often used as a metric to assess the quality of end-of-life cancer care," the study authors wrote. "Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, studies suggested that most patients with advanced cancer preferred to receive end-of-life care at home and to die at home."Of all patients, 83.7% died before the pandemic, and 16.3% died after it began. Over the entire study period, 54.5% died at home (including 2.0% who died in a long-term care facility), and 57.8% received SPC in their last 30 days of life. Before the pandemic, Q5 patients were less likely than those in Q3 and Q1 to die at home (50.6% vs 53.9% vs 57.0%, respectively) and to receive SPC (55.0% vs 57.9% vs 63.6%, respectively). In March 2020, home deaths rose 8.3%, but this increase was less pronounced in Q5 (6.1%) than in Q1 (11.4%) and Q3 (10.0%). At the same time, the rate of SPC provision overall fell 5.3%, with no significant difference by quintile. Patients given SPC (vs no SPC) were more likely to die at home both before and amid the pandemic, but the immediate increase in home deaths was greater among those who received no SPC than those who received SPC (Q1, 17.5% vs 7.6%; Q3, 12.7% vs 9.0%). In Q5, the climb in home deaths was significant only for patients not given SPC (13.9% vs 1.2%). "The surge in deaths at home at the onset of the pandemic may have been largely influenced by patients' efforts to avoid death in an inpatient setting," the authors wrote. "While many patients chose to die at home during the pandemic, this choice may have been less viable for those with lower SES due to a lack of resources to pay for private personal support; less access to suitable, safe, and stable housing; less access to SPC services; and lack of a support network of informal caregivers with the capacity to take time off from work and advocate for the patient's needs," they added.The drop in SPC delivery at the onset of the pandemic, which followed a decade of increasing SPC delivery in Ontario, may have been tied to delayed or absent SPC access due to COVID-19 restrictions, staffing shortages, or diversion of SPC staff to COVID-19 patient care.Overall, the findings suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated socioeconomic disparities in death at home and SPC delivery, the researchers said: "The mechanisms for inequality are not well characterized but may include local availability of services, awareness of these services, and ability to advocate for them. … Similar to critical care, a plan for responding to future crises should be put into place for palliative care."

Data: Adults with kidney injury fared better with COVID than with other illnesses - Adults hospitalized for COVID-19 and associated acute kidney injury (AKI) had lower rates of major adverse kidney events (MAKE), long-term decline in kidney function, and death than patients with AKI related to flu or other diseases, concludes astudy at five hospitals in a single healthcare system published yesterday in JAMA Internal Medicine. Yale University researchers analyzed the electronic health records of 9,624 AKI patients to compare the risk of MAKE, worse kidney function, and death in the next 2 years among those with COVID-19 with those with other illnesses. Patients were hospitalized fromMarch 2020 to June 2022, and their results were compared with those hospitalized for influenza A or B and AKI from October 2016 to January 2020. MAKE was defined as worse kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline of at least 25% after hospital release or kidney failure requiring dialysis). Average patient age was 69.0 years, 51.5% were women, 10% had COVID-19 and AKI, 3% had flu and AKI, and 87% had AKI and other diseases.Relative to patients in the other two groups, patients with COVID-19 and AKI were slightly younger and had a higher baseline eGFR, more underlying illnesses, more severe illness, and longer hospital stays.In unadjusted analyses, death rates were 5.4% for COVID-AKI group, 9.0% for flu-AKI patients, and 9.8% for those with AKI related to other diseases. At 2-year follow-up, death rates were 7.4%, 16.7%, and 13.9%, and respectively. COVID-related AKI patients had a 33% lower risk of MAKE, a 22% lower risk of poorer kidney function, and 69% lower risk of death than those with AKI due to other diseases. "Replication in broader cohorts as well as assessment of the effects of other kidney dysfunction markers (eg, proteinuria) and the association of COVID-19−specific therapeutics with kidney function trajectory are worth investigating in future studies," the researchers wrote.

Even fully recovered survivors of mild COVID can lose IQ points, study suggests -Today the New England Journal of Medicine posted a study by Imperial College London researchers showing that COVID-19 patients recovering from short-term symptoms experienced similar small deficits in memory, thinking, or concentrating ("brain fog") as those who had longer-term symptoms. The investigators calculated a global cognitive score across eight tasks using online self-reports of cognitive function among 112,964 adults participating in a study in England. They compared the results of COVID-19 survivors with those of their uninfected counterparts. A multiple regression analysis showed that COVID-19 survivors whose symptoms had resolved in less than 4 weeks or at least 12 weeks had comparable small deficits in cognitive function—or the ability to think—compared with uninfected participants (−0.23 and −0.24 standard deviations [SD], respectively). COVID-19 survivors demonstrated greater deficits than uninfected controls (−0.42 SD). Mild cognitive decline was noted after infection with the wild-type virus and with each variant, including B.1.1.529 (Omicron). Relative to uninfected participants, cognitive deficit (3-point loss in IQ) was seen even in participants who had had completely recovered from mild COVID-19. Participants with persistent symptoms had the equivalent of a 6-point loss in IQ, while those who had been admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) experienced the equivalent of a 9-point loss in IQ. Participants who contracted COVID-19 during the periods of wild-type and Alpha variant predominance exhibited larger deficits than those infected with later variants (eg, −0.17 SD for B.1.1.7 vs B.1.1.529). Similar findings were observed in hospitalized versus unhospitalized participants (eg, ICU admission, −0.35 SD) and in those with longer periods of acute illness and hospital stays. In a related editorial, Ziyad Al-Aly, MD, of the Veterans Affairs St. Louis Health Care System, and Clifford Rosen, MD, of Tufts University, said the study findings are concerning and require further exploration."For example, what are the functional implications of a 3-point loss in IQ?" they asked. "Whether these cognitive deficits persist or resolve along with predictors and trajectory of recovery should be investigated."Al-Aly and Rosen noted that millions of people around the world have long COVID, many of whom had or still have cognitive difficulties. "A deeper understanding of the biology of cognitive dysfunction after SARS-CoV-2 infection and how best to prevent and treat it are critical for addressing the needs of affected persons and preserving the cognitive health of populations," they concluded.

A Spike in Heart Disease Deaths Since Covid Is Puzzling Scientists -- Bloomberg Mortality data of the past four years show a wave of deadly cardiovascular and metabolic illness. Almost three weeks before Covid-19 was reported to be spreading in the US, Patricia Cabello Dowd dropped dead in the kitchen of her San Jose, California, home. A previously healthy 57-year-old, Dowd had complained of body aches and flu-like symptoms days earlier, but nothing could explain why she died so suddenly. Lab results 10 weeks later revealed Dowd, a manager at a Silicon Valley semiconductor firm, was one of the first US Covid fatalities. Inflammation of the heart muscle led to a finger-sized rupture which caused lethal hemorrhage, an autopsy report showed. Her death portended an alarming pattern: Not only did the pandemic result in the most deaths in a century, but it also triggered a wave of deadly cardiovascular and metabolic illness. While cases like Dowd’s were known from the start, mortality data of the last four years are now revealing the scale of the impact. ·Scientists are still trying to figure out why. It's unclear how many people died from Covid's cardiovascular complications and how many died ..

Preeminent COVID-19 scientists urge action to confront Long COVID --A perspective piece on Long COVID by Ziyad Al-Aly and Eric Topol was published in Science magazine today. It reviews the scientific community’s current knowledge about the disorder, as well as remaining gaps in knowledge that are critical to address. It concludes with policy recommendations for how society should move forward in studying, preventing and treating Long COVID. The authors are preeminent scholars and experts on Long COVID. Dr Al-Aly is a physician-scientist at Washington University in St. Louis. He has numerous high impact publications on COVID-19 and Long COVID and recently testified to Congress at a hearing devoted to the disorder. Among other important pieces, he has led studies on the dangers of COVID-19 reinfections, the effects of Long COVID after more than two years, and comparing the effects of COVID-19 and influenza. Dr. Topol is a scientist and executive vice president for research at the Scripps Institute. He was the senior author on a key review article on Long COVID published in Nature Reviews Microbiology. He wrote a critical piece in Science early in the pandemic detailing the impacts of COVID-19 on the heart. These scientists start their perspective by summarizing what is known. The disorder affects every organ system and is frequently debilitating. Millions of people have Long COVID. Indeed, other scientists estimate 400 million people worldwide are afflicted. It affects people of all age groups, sex and genetic composition. As the authors note, “Long Covid will have wide-reaching effects that are yet to be fully appreciated.”Risk factors include severe infection and reinfection with the virus. Although severe COVID-19 is associated with a higher risk of developing Long COVID, mild or even asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 virus infections can cause Long COVID. Each reinfection increases risk.Several hypotheses for the etiology of Long COVID have been put forward and for which there is growing evidence. They include persistent reservoirs of the virus, viral-induced mitochondrial dysfunction, immune dysregulation including autoimmune disorders, inflammation of blood vessel and neural tissues, and disruptions to the microbiome. Potential pathophysiological mechanisms implicated in the manifestation of acute and ‘long-COVID’ manifestations in the central nervous system (CNS) [Photo: "Neurological manifestations of long-COVID syndrome: a narrative review"]In addition to avoiding SARS-CoV-2 infection in the first place, Long COVID can be prevented by vaccines and medications. Vaccines reduce the risk by 15-75 percent. The antiviral combination of ritonavir and nirmatrelvir (branded as Paxlovid) reduces the risk by 26 percent. One randomized controlled trial of the diabetes drug metformin found it reduced the risk by 41 percent.The piece goes on to detail the challenges of caring for patients with Long COVID:Despite this cumulative knowledge on mechanisms, epidemiology and prevention, there are several major challenges. Importantly, the care needs of people with Long Covid are unmet. Patients are often met with skepticism and dismissal of their symptoms as psychosomatic. The attribution of symptoms to psychological causes has no scientific support …The authors go on to conclude with several recommendations and a warning. First, they call for additional research—and greatly increased levels of government funding to support it—on several aspects of Long COVID, from better defining the disorder, to further elucidation of the biological mechanisms of its genesis, to determining its long-term trajectory and outcomes, to the creation of animal models to facilitate future research, and finally to development of more and better treatments.Second, they make several policy recommendations. One recommendation is to strengthen the epidemiology and disease surveillance capacity of the public health system, which was devastated prior to the pandemic, and despite a brief resurgence driven by the pandemic response, has increasingly been dismantled. The chief enabler of dismantling surveillance was the World Health Organization’s declaration of an end to the public health emergency over COVID-19. This action enabled governments worldwide to return to pre-pandemic levels of support for disease surveillance, thereby ending nearly all data collection and reporting on COVID-19 and leading to the demise of the popular COVID-19 dashboard created by scientists at Johns Hopkins University.Another recommendation is to address the unmet healthcare needs of Long COVID patients. The authors advocate for “training health care providers to recognize and manage Long Covid, expanding access to specialty clinics, and developing care pathways that could be adapted in low-resource settings.” Finally, the authors recommend a renewed emphasis on public health measures to prevent infection and reinfection. They state: “Reinfection, which is now the dominant type of SARS-CoV-2 infection, is not inconsequential; it can trigger de novo Long Covid or exacerbate its severity.”

New large study indicates vaccines protective against long COVID A new study of almost 1.2 million people in Hong Kong demonstrates the protective effect of COVID-19 vaccination against long COVID, and suggests that the more doses people have had the less likely they experience long-term symptoms related to the virus. The study was published yesterday in Nature, and it adds to a growing body of literature suggesting COVID vaccines play an important role in reducing the risk of long COVID. The authors of the study conducted symptom follow-up surveillance on 1,175,277 patients with a confirmed SARS-CoV-2 test. Of those, 124,443, 101,379, 457,896, and 491,559 patients were unvaccinated, had 1, 2, and 3 or more doses of COVID vaccine prior to infection, respectively. All participants tested positive from April 1, 2020, to October 31, 2022, and were matched to uninfected controls without a positive SARS- CoV-2 test record throughout the study period. All study participants were followed for up to 1 year after infection, and clinical symptoms were noted. "Completely vaccinated and patients with booster dose of vaccines did not incur significant higher risk of health consequences from 271 and 91 days of infection onwards, respectively," the authors wrote. Unvaccinated and incompletely vaccinated patients, however, continued to have a greater risk of clinical symptoms (sequelae) for up to a year following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Unvaccinated participants with SARS-CoV-2 infections had the greatest risk of all observed clinical sequelae, including major cardiovascular diseases (hazard ratio [HR], 4.64, 95% confidence interval, 4.00 to 5.38). Participants with 1 dose had an HR of cardiovascular disease of 3.13, those receiving 2 doses had a 2.53 HR, and 3 or more doses were associated with an HR of 1.99. The risk of all-cause mortality was most significant between the unvaccinated and vaccinated, with almost a fivefold reduction in risk of all-cause mortality between unvaccinated patients (HR, 18.89) and patients with complete vaccination (HR, 3.95) during the acute phase of infection, the authors said. The risk of all-cause mortality dropped even further among patients with a booster dose of vaccine (HR, 1.74). After the first 30 days following infection, risk of death continued to be significantly lower for those fully vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19, with participants who received three or more doses of vaccines not incurring any significant risk of clinical sequelae from 91 days onward from their initial infection, the authors said.

US veterans—COVID-infected or not—report impaired function after pandemic Today, JAMA Network Open published a study of 372 US veterans who reported high rates of persistent fatigue, pain, and disability after the COVID-19 pandemic—regardless of infection status—suggesting that other crisis-related factors were also in play. Led by researchers from the Veterans Affairs (VA) Center for Clinical Management Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan, the analysis was based on data on 186 veterans from across the country who had a documented COVID-19 infection from October 2020 to April 2021 and 186 matched uninfected controls. Through telephone surveys, the team obtained data on self-reported functional ability 2 years before and 18 months after infection or study enrollment.Over 90% of participants were men, and the average age was older than 60 years.At 18 months, 44.9% of infected veterans reported that they were unable to do as much as they did before the pandemic, compared with 35.3% of controls (within-matched pair adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.52).Fatigue scores were similar in the COVID-19 and control groups (54.6 vs 51.7; higher scores indicate worse fatigue). In the COVID-19 cohort, 51.1% reported moderate, severe, or extreme pain, compared with 65.7% of controls. Within–matched pair conditional logistic regressions showed no statistically significant difference in risk of fatigue or substantial pain by group (OR, 0.50).On average, infected veterans reported 3.4 limitations, and 37.3% reported limitations in at least four activities or instrumental activities of daily living, relative to 3.0 and 30.2% in controls, but the within-pair analysis of the mean showed no significant differences. And both groups had similar findings for mobility (average mobility score, 70.4 in COVID-19 cohort vs 66.6 in controls), severely curtailed mobility (37.0% vs 41.1%, respectively), and employment status (62.6% vs 64.7%)."Veterans reported high rates of ongoing fatigue, pain, and disability after the COVID-19 pandemic, regardless of history of COVID-19," the study authors wrote. "These results highlight the importance of acknowledging and addressing the broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on health beyond those directly associated with documented infection.""Other adverse effects may have been due to psychological, behavioral, social, policy, and economic mechanisms," they added. "These data cannot rule out the possibility that COVID-19–confirmed viral infection may be associated with disability among some individuals who had COVID-19." The researchers noted the study's small sample size, which they said was partly due to lower recruitment than expected. "Future work should include larger sample sizes to better estimate the association of COVID-19 with everyday functioning," they wrote.

Antiplatelet therapy linked to less severe COVID outcomes - Polish researchers publishing today in Scientific Reports suggest that patients receiving antiplatelet therapy before contracting COVID-19 were less frequently hospitalized in the intensive care unit (ICU), developed shock less often, and had lower 3-month mortality. The study was conducted in 2020 and 2021, before the widespread use of vaccine in Poland.The study compared outcomes among hospitalized COVID patients who were taking antiplatelet therapy prior to infection (274 patients) and matched controls who had never received antiplatelet therapy.Thrombosis, or blood clotting, has been indicated as a factor in COVID-19 mortality, and the authors hypothesized that antiplatelet therapy may protect against severe outcomes linked to thrombosis, as platelets play a major role in hemostasis, thrombosis, and inflammatory response, they said.In the study, 94% of patients were taking a form of acetylsalicylic acid, including aspirin, at the time of COVID infection.In-hospital mortality for both groups of patients was similar, with deaths occurring among 53 (19%) and 64 (23%) of the antiplatelet therapy and no-antiplatelet groups, respectively.Patients who had been on antiplatelet therapy, however, were less likely to go to the ICU (9% vs 15%), and develop shock (9% vs 15%). There was also a lower 3-month mortality (31% vs 39%) for the antiplatelet therapy group (hazard ratio 0.69, 95% confidence interval, 0.51 to 0.93.)More cardiovascular events were reported in the short- and long-term in the antiplatelet therapy group, but the authors suggest this is likely due to preexisting comorbidities. "Despite the greater number of comorbidities and vascular events during hospitalization, the overall prognosis was better in the AP [antiplatelet] group," the authors wrote.

Monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccine shows 51% protection against COVID hospitalization -A new interim estimate of vaccine effectiveness (VE) of the monovalent (single-strain) XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccine shows the shot was 51% effective in preventing emergency department and urgent care visits among adults without compromised immune systems.The study was published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.Compared to adults who did not receive the monovalent XBB.1.5 COVID-19 vaccine, recipients were most protected in the first 7 to 59 days after vaccination, with VE dropping slightly 60 to 119 days after an updated dose.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended the updated 2023-24 XBB.1.5 vaccination for all people ages 6 months and older to prevent COVID-19."Although 1 updated vaccine dose is recommended for most persons aged ≥5 years, vaccination coverage with updated vaccines has remained low," the authors explained. "Thousands of persons in the United States continue to be hospitalized with COVID-19 each week."To estimate VE, the authors used outcomes seen in two electronic health networks that cover multiple states. In the first network, the VISIONS network, 395 (9%) case-patients and 4,199 (13%) control patients had received an updated COVID-19 vaccine dose.In both networks combined, VE against COVID-19–associated emergency department or urgent care visits among all adults was 51% (95% confidence interval [CI], 47% to 54%) during the first 7 to 59 days after an updated dose and 39% (95% CI, 33% to 45%) 60 to 119 days after vaccination. VE against COVID-19–associated hospitalization was 52% (95% CI, 47% to 57%) and 43% (95% CI, 27% to 56%), respectively.For all adults in the VISION network, VE against COVID-19–associated hospitalization was 53% (95% CI, 46% to 59%) in the first 7 to 59 days and 50% (95% CI, 40% to 59%) 60 to 119 days after an updated dose. Among adults 65 years and older, VE was 54% in the first 7 to 59 days, and 50% in days 60 to 119.In the second network, IVY, VE of an updated dose against COVID-19–associated hospitalization was 43% (95% CI, 27% to 56%) among adults aged 18 years and older and 48% (95% CI, 31% to 61%) among adults age 65 years and older."Despite different populations, methods, and outcomes, estimates of the effectiveness of updated COVID-19 vaccines were aligned across the VISION and IVY analyses," the authors wrote. "Continued monitoring of the effectiveness of updated COVID-19 vaccines for expected waning against hospitalization and to determine the durability of VE against critical illness is needed." In related news, in a research letter published in JAMA earlier this week, a nationwide cohort study of more than 1 million Danish adults aged 65 years and older showed no increased risk of 28 adverse events following vaccination with the monovalent XBB.1.5-containing COVID vaccine.In Denmark, the XBB.1.5-containing vaccines were recommended as a fifth COVID-19 vaccine dose to people aged 65 years and older, with vaccination beginning October 1, 2023.Using a nationwide database of 1,076,531 people (mean age, 74.7 years; 53.8% female), of whom 902 ,803 received an XBB.1.5 vaccine as a fifth dose, the authors found no significant association between the vaccine and adverse events.

Older US adults should get another COVID-19 shot, health officials recommend (AP) — Older U.S. adults should roll up their sleeves for another COVID-19shot, even if they got a booster in the fall, U.S. health officials said Wednesday.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Americans 65 and older should get another dose of the updated vaccine that became available in September — if at least four months has passed since their last shot. In making the recommendation, the agency endorsed guidance proposed by an expert advisory panel earlier in the day.“Most COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations last year were among people 65 years and older. An additional vaccine dose can provide added protection ... for those at highest risk,” CDC Director Dr. Mandy Cohen said in a statement. The advisory panel’s decision came after a lengthy discussion about whether to say older people “may” get the shots or if they “should” do so. That reflects a debate among experts about how necessary another booster is and whether yet another recommendation would add to the public’s growing vaccine fatigue.

CDC advisers recommend spring COVID booster for seniors -Vaccine advisers to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today recommended that people ages 65 and older receive an additional dose of the current monovalent (single-strain) COVID-19 vaccine this spring.The vote from the Advisory Committee on Immunization (ACIP) targets a group at higher risk for COVID-19 hospitalization and death. Immunity is known to wane following vaccination as well as infection, and it's been almost 6 months since the CDC weighed in with its last advice, which was that people ages 6 months and older receive the updated COVID vaccine targeting the XBB.1.5 variant.Though COVID activity is currently trending downward in the United States, experts said it's likely that virus circulation will likely continue at significant levels in the months ahead. ACIP made similar spring booster recommendations in 2022 and 2023. Like previous recommendations, the next dose would be given at least 4 months after the last dose. People with conditions that compromise their immune system could get their next dose at least 2 months after the last dose.Michael T. Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, said ACIP took a very important step today and though it's not yet clear what the latest advice is for the broader group of immunocompromised people, today's recommendation for people ages 65 and older still covers the biggest chunk of the at-risk group. CIDRAP publishes CIDRAP News.In its data for the first weeks of February, the CDC reported more than 1,000 COVID deaths per week, and Osterholm said most of them are likely in seniors. He said predicting what lies ahead with COVID is more challenging and nuanced than flu, because SARS-CoV-2 variants change more often and COVID peaks—nine of them so far—have been tied to the emergence of new variants.Ahead of today's discussion, the CDC's COVID vaccine work group crafted the wording for the recommendation originally presented to the group today, which said seniors may get another dose of the vaccine. However, during working group discussions, some members preferred going with a stronger "should receive an additional dose" wording for the recommendations.During deliberations, some ACIP members and ex officio members said they supported a stronger "should" wording, mainly to portray a clearer message to vaccine recipients and make the decision easier for healthcare providers to navigate. For example, some ACIP members noted that a large portion of COVID vaccination takes place in pharmacies, where pharmacists don't have complete information about a patient's health status.Other members, however, raised concerns that the wording might discourage or have a chilling effect on people who hadn't received a COVID vaccine dose in the fall. Others thought the evidence supporting another vaccine dose wasn't strong enough for a more emphatic "should" recommendation.

CDC announces new respiratory virus guidance, ends COVID isolation policy --Today Mandy Cohen, MD, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the organization was officially replacing old isolation guidelines for COVID-19 and grouping the novel coronavirus into a respiratory virus category shared with influenza and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus). Citing lower death rates and hospitalizations, as well as high population immunity from both infections and vaccines, Cohen said it was time to approach COVID-19 infections with "simple, practical, and actionable," steps."If you're sick, people don't always know what virus they have," explained Cohen during a press conference today. "Stay home and away from others when you are sick. You want to return to normal activities when two things are true: Symptoms are improving overall for 24 hours, and you are fever-free for 24 hours." Cohen said these recommendations are for community settings and do not apply to long-term care facilities or hospitals.This is the first time the CDC has altered its COVID-19 guidelines, which formerly recommended reducing the 10-day isolation period to 5 days, since 2021. On May 11, 2023, the federal public health emergency for COVID-19 ended, but the 5-day isolation policy was left in place.Since the Omicron surge of late 2021, the landscape of the virus has changed, said Brendan Jackson, MPH, CPH, the CDC's lead on respiratory virus response."We are in a very different place, we have effective treatments that reduce risk of serious disease by 60% or more," he said today. "COVID was the third leading cause of death in the US in 2021. In 2023 it was the tenth."Though Jackson said in the current winter respiratory illness season COVID has caused more hospitalizations than influenza, COVID numbers are moving toward influenza levels. In the new guidelines, the CDC says weekly hospital admissions for COVID-19 this year have decreased by more than 75% and deaths by more than 90% compared to January 2022, during the peak of Omicron activity.Both Jackson and Cohen also cited California and Oregon as examples of how the new guidelines would work. Earlier this year both states moved to ending isolation after being fever-free, and neither state has noted a strain on hospitalizations due to COVID-19. Throughout today's press conference Cohen emphasized that the pillar of the new recommendations is routine vaccination against RSV, flu, and COVID-19."Ninety-five percent of people recently hospitalized in the last season did not get updated COVID vaccines," she said. "If you get vaccinated, we can protect you."Cohen said only 20% to 22% of adults got the most recent updated covid vaccine, and only 49% of seniors, the group most vulnerable for severe outcomes, have received it. Yesterday the CDC published new datashowing this year's COVID-19 vaccine, the monovalent (single-strain) XBB.1.5, had a vaccine effectiveness of 51% against hospitalization.

US respiratory virus levels remain high as flu rises in central states -Respiratory illness levels in the United States remained high but stable last week, with flu activity rising in some regions of the country and indicators declining for both COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest data updates.Test positivity for flu declined nationally but is increasing in the Central region, an area that includes Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, the CDC said in its weekly respiratory virussnapshot.Influenza B detections increased, a pattern often seen in the latter part of the US flu season. Of respiratory samples that were positive for flu at public health labs last week, 65.7% were influenza A, and 34.3% were influenza B, the CDC said in its weekly FluView update. Of subtyped influenza A samples, 55% were 2009 H1N1, and 45% were H3N2.Outpatient visits for flulike illness held steady compared to the week before, and hospitalizations for flu also remained level and are highest in seniors. Flu deaths overall remained stable, and the CDC received reports of two more pediatric flu deaths, raising the season's total to 93. Both occurred during the first half of February and were linked to influenza B.The nation's COVID indicators continued downward trends, and of the two severity markers, hospitalizations declined 10.3% compared to a week ago, with deaths down 8.7% during the same period.Early indicators also declined, with test positivity declining by 0.9% to 7.4% nationally. The level is a bit higher in the Southeast. Emergency department (ED) visits for COVID fell 14.6% compared to the previous week and are highest in infants younger than 12 months and seniors. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections, another early marker, are still considered high. Southern states are still reporting the highest detections, but the trend is declining. The level in the Midwest held steady, while downward trends occurred in other regions. The CDC today also released its latest variant projections, which show that JN.1 makes up 92.3% of samples. Two JN.1 offshoots, still at very low levels, showed slightly higher proportions compared to 2 weeks ago. They are JN.1.13 and JN.1.18. The CDC said RSV activity continues a downward trend in all parts of the country, with hospitalizations also dropping in infants and seniors—the two groups at highest risk for the disease. ED visits from RSV are highest in infants under 12 months old. Test positivity for RSV is at 3.8% nationally, according to the CDC's latest figures. Deaths from the virus remain stable at 0.1%.

CDC midseason estimate shows moderate protection for flu vaccines Interim estimates for how well this year's flu vaccines protected against medically attended flulike illness showed moderate vaccine effectiveness (VE) overall, with higher levels in children than in adults, researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and their state health partners reported today in the latest edition of Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).The data come from four networks that the CDC uses to track vaccine effectiveness, which cover patients in 22 states. This is the first year that pediatric and adult VE estimates from the four networks have been presented together. The study did not measure how VE waned after vaccination.For adults, VE against flu diagnosed in outpatient settings ranged from 33% to 49% and against flu hospitalization ranged from 41% to 44%. For the pediatric age-group, VE for flu detected in outpatient settings was 59% to 67% and against flu-linked hospitalization was 52% to 61%. "These findings demonstrate that the 2023–24 seasonal influenza vaccine is effective at reducing the risk for medically attended influenza virus infection," the group wrote, noting that the interim results were consistent with findings from previous years.The vaccines were effective against both influenza A, which has mainly been the 2009 H1N1 strain this season, and influenza B, similar to recent estimates from Canada and Europe. For seniors, a group at higher risk for flu complications, VE was similar to adults ages 18 to 64 years old.The CDC noted that flu vaccine coverage has been lower this season than last season and is even lower than prepandemic uptake.In a separate report in the same MMWR issue, an analysis of surveillance data from California found that flu vaccines so far this season have provided moderate protection against lab-confirmed flu across all age-groups.Overall, VE was 45%, highest in children younger than 18 years old. VE declined with age and was 30% in adults ages 65 and older.

Michigan reports its first measles case since 2019 - The Michigan Department of Health and Human Services (MDHHS) recently reported an imported measles infection, which involves a child in Oakland County.The MDHHS said it is working closely with Oakland County health officials, and investigators don't think there were additional exposures outside the child's household, based on when symptoms began. Officials urged unvaccinated people ages 1 and older to receive the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.Michigan's case is its first since 2019 and is part of a flurry of cases reported in multiple states since the first of the year, most of them imported. In January, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) urged healthcare providers to be alert for cases, owing to a rise in global activity and gaps in vaccination.Measles is very contagious, and unvaccinated people who are exposed to the virus are thought to have a 90% risk of contracting it. The virus can persist in airspace for up to 2 hours after an infected person leaves the area. In some instances, the disease can lead to serious complications, including brain swelling.In other US measles developments, two more cases have been reported in Florida's Broward County, though it's not clear if they are connected to an outbreak at an elementary school. According to state data, eight cases have now been reported in Broward County. Earlier reports noted that the elementary school cluster involved six cases.The Florida Department of Health (Florida Health) said in a February 23 notice to healthcare providers that, along with Broward County cases, a travel-related case has been reported in central Florida. Florida data suggest that case may be in Polk County.Meanwhile, a second case has been reported in Ohio's Miami County and has links to the first Ohio case, according to a local media report that cited Miami County Public Health.

Measles' Deadliest Sequelae -- So, now that WHO experts are predicting that more than half the world could face serious measles outbreaks by the end of this year, I've begun to wonder: just how many modern-day doctors, much less vaccine-hesitant parents, know the virus's most calamitous blows?Mind you, I'm not just talking about classic complications -- pneumonia in one in 20 infected children, acute encephalitis in one in 1,000, death in as many as three in 1,000 children -- but stealthy assaults that are sometimes far deadlier. In the case of Manju, who was adopted by a single mom in Chicago when she was not yet 2 years old, 20 years had passed before the girl from Calcutta with big, brown eyes showed early, non-specific signs of subacute sclerosing panencephalitis(SSPE), a rare but fatal condition in which measles lies dormant, then goes rogue in a person's brain. Soon Manju was losing her vision and started to stutter, stumble, and twitch. Her diagnosis was confirmed by an EEG and measles-specific antibodies in her spinal fluid. Finally, 10 months after Nagami started administering twice-per-week, intrathecal injections of alpha-interferon in a last-ditch effort to prolong Manju's life, her patient was dead.Not far from my university lives a 93-year-old medical icon whose publisher will soon release the 9th edition of his weighty 2-volume textbook on pediatric infectious diseases. So, today -- after decades spent caring for children injured by vaccine-preventable infections -- it's natural that UCLA's distinguished professor James Cherry, MD, MSc, is speaking out about measles.Our current global resurgence of measles -- mainly linked to pandemic-related declines in immunizations and rising vaccine hesitancy among parents -- raises the risk of serious complications and deaths, Cherry told NBC News just last week.Cherry is also worried about SSPE based on research in collaboration with the California Department of Public Health. In a 2017 paper ominously sub-titled "The Devastating Measles Complication That Might Be More Common Than Previously Estimated," he and his co-authors reviewed all SSPE cases reported to the California Department of Public Health between 1998 and 2015, ultimately concluding that SSPE was 10 times more common than once assumed. Their research also showed that the age when children contract measles is an important SSPE predictor. Actual numbers? A deep dive into 18,000 cases of measles diagnosed in California between 1988 and 1991 revealed that SSPE later struck one in 609 youngsters under 12 months of age when first infected and one in 1,367 who were under 5 years old.Finally, what exactly causes SSPE? A wild-type measles virus in the brain develops one or more point mutations in its genome that initially halt the virus's replication and spread, but later cause chronic encephalitis, inflammation, and demyelination. In a typical SSPE patient, the latent period preceding symptoms is 7 to 10 years, but sometimes exceeds two decades. Final clinical findings include a poignant constellation of visual abnormalities, convulsions, myoclonic jerks, and cognitive decline eventually culminating in mutism, spasticity, coma, and death.

Data demonstrate higher risk of surgical-site infection at US safety net hospitals Patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery at safety net hospitals are at increased risk of surgical-site infections (SSIs), according to a research letter yesterday in JAMA Surgery.Using data from the Nationwide Readmissions Database for, researchers from Memorial Regions Hospital in Florida assessed SSIs identified during initial admission or readmission within 90 days of gastrointestinal surgery from 2019 to 2020. Safety net hospitals were identified as publicly funded, metropolitan teaching, and large by number of beds per US region. To account for risk factors such as age, comorbidities, low household income, and lack of insurance, the researchers performed a propensity score matching analysis. Of the 392,368 patients identified, 23,447 (6.0%) were treated at safety net hospitals (mean age 52.4 years, 50.2% female). The overall SSI rate was 3.0%, of which 59.2% of infections were found during readmission, but the rate in safety net hospitals was 7.8%.After propensity score matching, the overall SSI rate was 3.5%, and SSI risk was increased by nearly 30% in safety net hospitals (odds ratio, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.16 to 1.42). SSI risk was higher at safety net hospitals for all sites (eg, superficial incisional, deep incisional, organ space). The findings are noteworthy because the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has imposed financial penalties on hospitals that have high rates of healthcare-associated infections since 2014, and those penalties to date have proven ineffective at reducing infection rates at safety net hospitals. Although CMS made adjustments to hospital penalties for readmissions in 2019 to account for the socioeconomic differences among patients treated at safety net hospitals, the study authors say their findings indicate similar adjustments are needed for SSIs.

Study: Staph bloodstream infections are deadlier in women - A systematic review and meta-analysis found that women with Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB) had an increased risk of death compared with men, researchersreported yesterday in JAMA Network Open. S aureus is the leading cause of death from bloodstream infections, and mortality in SAB patients has been linked with several risk factors, including increasing age, infective endocarditis, hemodialysis dependence, and persistent bacteremia. To determine whether female sex is associated with increased mortality risk in patients with SAB, researchers with Duke University and Leiden University Medical Center in the Netherlands reviewed 89 studies involving 132,582 SAB patients. The main outcome was mortality at or before 90 days following SAB. Unadjusted mortality data from 81 studies revealed a 12% increased mortality risk in women compared with men (pooled odds risk [OR], 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.18). The 32 studies with adjusted mortality data that accounted for additional patient characteristics and treatment variables showed an 18% increased mortality risk compared with men (pooled adjusted OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.27). No evidence of publication bias was observed. The study authors say that while they didn't address the underlying causes of sex difference in mortality risk in the study, the difference could be due to a variety of social or biological factors that should be further explored in future studies. "Fundamental research on biological sex differences in immune response or pharmacology, examinations of sex-based differences in management of SAB, and better reporting of sex-specific outcomes in randomized clinical trials are necessary to better understand the observed sex-specific differences in mortality among patients with SAB," they wrote.

Outrage Grows Over CDC Inaction On Chinese Biolab In California - Jesalyn Harper, a City of Reedley code enforcement officer, had to determine whether to turn off the power to a secret Chinese biolab in California in order to prevent a fire that inspectors had said was a risk. But with the power off, the freezers’ contents would thaw, with potentially dangerous consequences. The biolab was full of thousands of vials of possible infectious pathogens. She called the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for advice. “It was a very short-lived and frustrating phone call that ended with them hanging up,” said Ms. Harper. She left the power on. That was in March 2023, months after Ms. Harper had first discovered the biolab in December 2022 and alerted authorities. Ms. Harper found inside what was supposed to be an unoccupied warehouse, thousands of vials of potentially infectious agents, including ones labeled as coronavirus, chlamydia, E. coli, streptococcus pneumonia, HIV, hepatitis, herpes, rubella, and malaria. A freezer was labeled “Ebola” and about 1,000 lab mice were kept for experimentation. But there was no single authority that could deal with all of the pathogens, chemicals, and biological hazards and the response became drawn out. It wasn’t until local officials contacted their congress member, Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.), asking him to intervene at the federal level, that the CDC responded to California state government and local official requests, according to a congressional report from the Select Committee on the CCP that was published in November 2023. In early May 2023, the CDC spent two days inspecting the biolab, along with several other agencies, including the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Fresno County Public Health, and the California Department of Public Health. Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) told The Epoch Times he is trying to find out from the CDC why the agency initially “looked the other way” as local officials tried to get their attention. “They [CDC] didn’t investigate for months and months and months and months,” Mr. Kiley said. “Why? What are your protocols for responding to credible intelligence of public health risks that are present in our communities? “Why would you not be on top of that right away?” However, when the CDC did visit the biolab, it wouldn’t investigate something unless it had a specific label on it, according to Ms. Harper. The agency created a report for 20 items that were labeled, and those items were sprayed down, disinfected, and put in special waste containers to be incinerated. “CDC officials confirmed that the CDC made this list of pathogens based solely on the labels that were placed on samples. The CDC did not test these samples to assess whether the listed labels were correct or otherwise,” the congressional report states. “According to local officials, they also asked if the CDC could at least test a random sample of the pathogens. The CDC still refused,” the report states. “Despite their limited local budget, local officials then offered to pay the CDC for the entirety of the cost of testing these samples. The CDC still did not and left the site.” Meanwhile, it was becoming apparent that behind the Chinese man who controlled the biolab was a tangled web of Chinese shell companies operating in the dark in several countries.

Exposure to Agent Orange damages brain tissue in ways similar to Alzheimer's disease, study reveals -- Agent Orange, an herbicide used during the Vietnam War, is a known toxin with wide-ranging health effects. Even though Agent Orange has not been used for decades, there is increasing interest in its effects on the brain health of aging veterans. A new study by scientists at Brown University reveals the mechanisms by which Agent Orange affects the brain and how those processes can lead to neurodegenerative diseases. The research shows that exposures to Agent Orange herbicidal chemicals damage frontal lobe brain tissue of laboratory rats with molecular and biochemical abnormalities that are similar to those found in early-stage Alzheimer's disease. An early online version of this paper detailing the findings was publishedon Feb. 13 and is scheduled for publication in the Journal of Alzheimer's DiseaseThe findings could have important implications for military veterans who were exposed to Agent Orange during the Vietnam War, said study author Dr. Suzanne M. De La Monte, a Brown University physician-scientist."If we can show that prior exposure to Agent Orange leads to subsequent neurodegenerative disease, then that gives veterans a chance to get help," De La Monte said.But the study's findings have much broader significance, she added, because the toxins in Agent Orange are also present in lawn fertilizers."These chemicals don't just affect veterans; they affect our entire population," said De La Monte, who is a professor of pathology and laboratory medicine and neurosurgery at Brown's Warren Alpert Medical School.Agent Orange is a synthetic defoliating herbicide that was widely used between 1965 and 1970 during the Vietnam War. Members of the U.S. military were exposed to the chemical when stationed close to enemy territory that had been sprayed by aircraft.Government reports show that exposure to Agent Orange also caused birth defects and developmental disabilities in babies born to Vietnamese women residing in the affected areas. Over time, studies showed that exposure to Agent Orange was associated with an increased risk of some cancers as well as cardiovascular disease and diabetes.Research also revealed associations between Agent Orange exposures and later development of nervous system degenerative diseases, and significantly higher rates and earlier onsets of dementia. However, in the absence of a proven causal link between Agent Orange and aging-associated diseases, there has been a need for studies that improve understanding of the process by which the herbicide affects the brain."Scientists realized that Agent Orange was a neurotoxin with potential long-term effects, but those weren't shown in a clear way," De La Monte said. "That's what we were able to show with this study."The analysis was conducted by De La Monte and Dr. Ming Tong, a research associate in medicine at Brown; both are also associated with Rhode Island Hospital, an affiliate of the Warren Alpert Medical School. Their research builds upon their recent studies of exposure to Agent Orange chemicals on immature human cells from the central nervous system showing that short-term exposure to Agent Orange has neurotoxic and early degenerative effects related to Alzheimer's. The researchers investigated the effects of the two main constituents of Agent Orange (2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid) on markers of Alzheimer's neurodegeneration using the samples from the frontal lobes of laboratory rats. The mature, intact brain tissue samples included a full complex array of cell types and tissue structures. The scientists treated the samples to cumulative exposure to Agent Orange, as well as to its separate chemical constituents, and observed the underlying mechanisms and molecular changes. They found that treatment with Agent Orange and its constituents caused changes in the brain tissue corresponding to brain cell degeneration, and molecular and biochemical abnormalities indicative of cytotoxic injury, DNA damage and other issues. The use of Agent Orange was prohibited by the U.S. government in 1971. However, the chemicals remain in the environment for decades, De La Monte said. According to the study authors, the widespread, uncontrolled use of Agent Orange in herbicide and pesticide products is such that one in three Americans has biomarker evidence of prior exposure. Despite growing recognition of the broad toxic and carcinogenic effects of 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid, the researchers noted that concern has not achieved a level sufficient for federal agencies to ban its use. The researchers conclude that the results of this study and another recent publication support the notion that Agent Orange as well as its independent constituents (2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid and 2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid) exert alarming adverse effects on the mature brain and central nervous system.

Amid cholera outbreaks, desperate countries face depleted global vaccine stockpile -- The world's stockpile of cholera vaccine lies empty just as 16 countries battle outbreaks of the deadly bacterial illness, Reuters reports. "The world’s oral cholera vaccine stocks have dried up," Daniela Garone, MD, international medical coordinator of the humanitarian organization Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF), said in a news release. "This directly affects MSF teams as we are trying to respond to an extraordinary number of cholera outbreaks, including in Ethiopia, Sudan, Zambia, and Zimbabwe." Currently, as country requests for cholera vaccines mount, the ability to manufacture more is limited to the sole approved cholera vaccine maker, EuBiologics Co. of South Korea, leaving MSF "extremely concerned.""All the doses in production until mid-March have already been allocated, and the demand for doses keeps growing," Garone said. "Today, we're still desperate for more manufacturers to jump in and urgently produce oral cholera vaccines, and it’s essential that more technical support be provided for new manufacturers to speed up regulatory processes and scale up production capacity."A UNICEF official told Reuters that a deficit of at least 50 million oral cholera vaccine (OCV) doses will persist throughout 2024.All the doses in production until mid-March have already been allocated, and the demand for doses keeps growing. Untreated cholera, which spreads through water and food contaminated with Vibrio cholerae bacteria, can be fatal within hours but may cause no or mild symptoms. The disease poses the greatest risk to children younger than 5 years. Cholera is treated using an oral rehydration solution for most patients, while intravenous fluids and antibiotics are used for those with severe infections. Earlier this month, the World Health Organization (WHO) highlighted the dire situation in a cholera update. "From January 2023 to January 2024, urgent requests for OCV surged, with 76 million OCV doses requested by 14 countries while only 38 million doses were available during that time period," the WHO wrote. The WHO in January 2023 classified the worldwide resurgence as a grade 3 emergency—its highest internal emergency level. Cholera cases were reported in 30 countries across five WHO regions, including 9 countries that documented more than 10,000 infections in 2023, a year in which 14 countries requested 76 million cholera vaccine doses, but only 38 million were available.

WHO shares details of 2 fatal Nipah cases in Bangladesh The World Health Organization (WHO) this week fleshed out details on Nipah virus infections in Bangladesh that first surfaced in media reports in late January.The two cases were confirmed before February 9, and both patients died from their infections. Both are from Dhaka division but are from separate districts and aren't epidemiologically linked to each other, the WHO said in a statement.The first patient is a 38-year-old man whose symptoms began on January 11. He was admitted to a local hospital on January 16, then transferred to a facility in Dhaka city when his condition worsened. The man died on January 28 about a week after his blood and respiratory samples tested positive for Nipah virus.An investigation revealed the man had consumed raw date palm sap on December 31, a practice known to increase the risk of contracting the disease. No other Nipah cases were detected in 91 of the man's contacts. Infections in Bangladesh typically track with harvest of date palm sap, which occurs from December through May. Public health officials continue to warn against drinking raw date palm sap because it can be contaminated with bat droppings that contain the virus. The second patient is a 3-year-old girl who was isolated in a Dhaka city hospital on January 30, about 2 days after her symptoms began. On the following day her Nipah virus infection was confirmed and she died. Investigators found that the girl had regularly consumed raw date palm sap. All 67 of the girl's contacts tested negative for the virus. The WHO said the risk to Bangladesh is moderate, partly due to the high case-fatality rate and because people continue to drink raw date palm sap, despite ongoing efforts to teach communities about the risk. It added that the regional risk is moderate because Bangladesh shares an ecological corridor with India and Myanmar for the bats that are the natural Nipah virus hosts. There are no vaccines or treatments for Nipah virus, which has been classified as a priority disease for countermeasure research and development.

PAHO rates Western equine encephalitis risk in the Americas as moderate -- The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) recently published a risk assessment of Western equine encephalitis (WEE), following the recent detection of human cases in Argentina and Uruguay, their first in many years. The infections followed an increasing number of outbreaks in animals in Argentina and Uruguay. An isolated animal infection was also reported in Brazil in an area that borders both countries. WEE infections in humans typically range from asymptomatic to moderate, but in rare instances, the severe form of the disease can result in aseptic meningitis or encephalitis. There are no specific treatments or vaccines for WEE. So far, 73 human WEE infections have been reported, 69 in Argentina and 4 in Uruguay. All have been reported in areas where the mosquito-borne virus is affecting animals. Seven deaths have been reported in Argentina. Most of the illnesses were reported in people who are older and have underlying health conditions. Birds are the natural hosts of the virus, which can pass to people and animals through infected mosquitoes. PAHO said that, in South America, rodents and bats could also serve as reservoirs.PAHO said several factors may be contributing to increased WEE activity, including a seasonal shift in Culex tarsalis mosquitoes feeding from birds to mammals. So far there are no data to suggest an increase in mosquito density. PAHO added that other factors could include increased rainfall and temperatures due to climate change, deforestation, and increased urbanization.The group also noted that the risk of further spread is high, partly due to environmental factors related to the El Nino weather phenomenon and climate change, which could pave the way for geographic expansion of the mosquitoes that spread the disease.

Most pet dog diarrhea contains multidrug-resistant E coli, study finds - A Chinese study published yesterday in PLOS One finds that more than half of the isolates from pet dogs diarrhea contained multidrug-resistant (MDR) Escherichia coli, which the researchers say may pose a threat to both animal and human health.Researchers from Sichuan Agricultural University evaluated the presence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in 135 E coli isolates from the dogs using the disc-diffusion method. They also screened for antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs), virulence-associated genes (VAGs), and population structure using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for 74 MDR strains and analyzed the link between AMRs and ARGs or VAGs. Of the 135 isolates, 54.8% were identified as MDR E coli, 71.1% were highly resistant to ampicillin, 62.2% were resistant to tetracycline, and 59.3% were resistant to trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. Twelve ARGs in six categories and 14 VAGs in four categories were observed in the 74 MDR strains, with fimC (100%) andtetA (96.0%) the most prevalent.The analysis of associations between ARGs and AMRs or VAGs in MDR strains showed 23 significant positively associated pairs between ARGs and AMRs, while only 5 associated pairs were seen between ARGs and VAGs (3 positively and 2 negatively associated pairs)."The widespread use of antibiotics has significantly caused the increase of MDR E. coli which were isolated from companion animals," the study authors wrote. "Measures should be taken to prevent the transmission of MDR E. coli between companion animals and humans, as the fecal shedding of MDR E. coli from pet dogs may pose a threat to humans."

Peru declares dengue health emergency -- Peru's health ministry yesterday declared a dengue emergency for 20 of the country's 25 regions, a step that allows the government to free up more resources to support its response.In a statement, health officials said the health emergency declaration will be in effect for 90 days, and they will allocate at least $42 million toward response actions, including mosquito control and outbreak investigation.So far, more than 31,000 suspected dengue cases have been reported, 17,965 of them confirmed and 32 fatal. Cesar Vasquez, the country's health minister, said, "The unusual heat wave and the absence of winter have generated a perfect panorama for the spread of dengue." Earlier this month, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said dengue activity in the region isalready outpacing record levels in 2023. In an update, it noted that cases are rising in 11 Americas countries, including Peru.In other dengue developments, Takeda yesterday announced a partnership with India-based Biological E to speed the production of the Qdenga vaccine. Takeda said in a statement that Biological E would make up to 50 million Qdenga doses a year, with a goal of producing 100 million doses a year in multidose vials by 2030. Officials said the multidose vial formulation offers logistical advantages for national vaccine programs. Gary Dubin, MD, president of Takeda's global vaccine business unit, said, the company's goal it to make the vaccine broadly available. "Within the last year, we've successfully launched in private markets, are now launching in some public programs, and working with partners to support a broader public health impact." Brazil, a country hit hard by the disease, recently spelled out a plan to offer dengue vaccine though its public system, the first country to do so.

Quick takes: A million dengue cases, more avian flu in 5 states, polio in Nigeria | CIDRAP

• Part of an ongoing surge in dengue activity, the Brazil's health ministry said suspected cases this week topped 1 million, according to the country's weekly arbovirus surveillance report. The Americas region reported record dengue activity in 2023, and the Pan American Health Organization recently warned that activity so far this year is already outpacing last year. Peru this week declared a health emergency for dengue for most of its regions.
• Five states have reported more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in poultry over the past few days, including Missouri, where the virus struck a commercial turkey farm in Dallas County, according to updated data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Four other states reported outbreaks in backyard flocks, including Indiana, Minnesota, New York, and Ohio.
• One country—Nigeria—reported a new polio case this week, according to the latest weekly update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. The case involved circulating vaccine-derive poliovirus type 2. The patient is from Kano state, and his or her paralysis onset occurred in November 2023, boosting the country's total for 2023 to 82.

European advisers green-light 2 H5N1 avian flu vaccines - At its meetings last week the European Medicines Agency human medicines committee recommended approval for two human H5N1 avian flu vaccines, one called Celldemic and the other Incellipan. Both are inactivated adjuvanted cell-based vaccines manufactured by Seqirus. Celldemic is intended for immunizing people during outbreaks coming from animals, including when public health officials anticipate a possible pandemic. Incellipan is intended as a pandemic preparedness vaccine to be used only when a pandemic has been declared, which prompted the manufacturer to include the pandemic strain in the final version of its vaccine. The approval now, based on safety and efficacy trials, would speed the final authorization of a pandemic vaccine.

Avian flu reaches Antarctica's mainland - A Spanish-led research team yesterday announced that highly pathogenic H5 avian flu has been confirmed for the first time on Antarctica's mainland, according to an announcement from Spain's ministry of science, innovation, and universities. Part of a southward spread over the past year, the virus had previously been found in birds and sea mammals in sub-Antarctic areas, including the South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands. And in late January, H5N1 was detected for the first time in Antarctic penguins, which were found dead off the Falklands Islands coast. The latest detection came from scientists at the Severo Ochoa Biology Center, part of the Spanish science ministry's Higher Council for Scientific Research. The group is based at Spain's Antarctic research base, called Gabriel de Castilla on Deception Island. The researchers found the virus in two dead skuas that Argentinan scientists collected near Argentina's Antarctic research base, Primavera, which is on the northern tip of Antarctica's mainland. Skuas are large seabirds that breed in sub-Antarctic and Antarctic zones and move farther north when not breeding. Over the past several months, animal health groups have warned about the threat of further spread of H5N1 to Antarctica's wildlife, especially since they haven't been exposed to the virus before and often live in densely packed colonies. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported more highly pathogenic avian flu outbreaks in poultry flocks in five states, according to its latest updates. The virus struck three turkey farms and a layer farm in Missouri's Dallas County. Also, outbreaks were reported in backyard flocks in Indiana, New York, Maryland, and Ohio. Overseas, outbreaks continue, including in Europe, where recent events involving poultry were reported from a number of countries, according to notifications posted by the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH). Norway reported an H5N1 outbreak at a commercial farm in Rogaland County in the western region. Italy reported the virus at a farm in Veneto region. Moldova also reported another event. Norway also reported an H5 detection in a red fox found in Skibotn in Trom County in the north, according to aWOAH notification. Peru recently reported a highly pathogenic H5 outbreak at a commercial layer farm in La Libertad in the northwest.

Extinctions could result as fish change foraging behavior in response to rising temperatures -- Fish are changing how they search for and consume prey in warmer waters, with models suggesting that extinctions will become more likely due to this behavior change, according to a new study published in Nature Climate Change. Led by researchers at the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) and the Friedrich Schiller University Jena, the researchers found that fish in the Baltic Sea respond to temperature increases by consuming the first prey they encounter. This change in foraging behavior led to the fish selecting prey that tends to be more abundant and smaller. Small prey present in their environment at all temperatures included brittle stars, small crustaceans, worms, and mollusks. Fish, like many other consumer species, need more food when temperatures increase because their metabolism also increases. Although more abundant prey provides an immediate energy source, this so-called flexible foraging behavior means fish are missing out on opportunities to satisfy their long-term energy needs by consuming larger prey that provide more calories. Model food web calculations show that this mismatch between a fish's energetic requirements and their actual food intake could lead to more extinctions under warmer conditions, with fish ultimately starving because they are not eating enough to meet their energetic needs. The researchers analyzed ten years of data about the stomach contents of six commercially important fish species with different feeding strategies in the Bay of Kiel. For example, flatfish like the European flounder (Platichthys flesus) tend to be sit-and-wait predators, whereas Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) are more active foraging feeders. Collected year-round from 1968 to 1978, this data provided insight into the fish's diets—what was in their stomachs—and which prey was present in their environment at different temperatures. The stomach contents indicated that fish gradually shifted their focus from less abundant prey to more abundant prey as waters became warmer. "Fish species in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere are facing a multitude of man-made pressures, like overfishing or pollution," adds co-author Gregor Kalinkat of the Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB). "The effect of more inefficient prey searching behavior under warming might be another so far overlooked factor leading to fish stocks that cannot recover even when fisheries pressure is significantly reduced."

Agreement on salmon, Snake River dams signed at White House -- An agreement that has been called a roadmap to breaching the four Snake River dams in Eastern Washington was signed in a Biden White House ceremony Friday, with tribal leaders and the governors of Oregon and Washington in attendance. The agreement made public in December lays the groundwork for the federal government to work with four Northwest tribes and the states of Oregon and Washington to protect and restore salmon, steelhead and other native fish to the Columbia River Basin, including the Snake River. “We will not allow extinction to be an option for the salmon, nor for us,” said Chairman Shannon Wheeler of the Nez Perce Tribe. “The United States is bound to salmon and to us by treaty, where we reserved all of our fisheries.”The agreement was hashed out by the federal government behind closed doors to temporarily halt a long-running lawsuit over the Columbia River hydrosystem, and particularly the lower Snake River dams, as salmon and steelhead runs have dropped far below levels when treaties were signed in 1855.“Since time immemorial, the strength of the Yakama Nation and its people have come from Nch’í Wána — the Columbia River — and from the fish, game, roots and berries it nourishes,” said Chairman Gerald Lewis of the Yakama Nation. Its fishers have empty nets and its homes have empty tables, due to the impact of human development on the Columbia River system, he said. More clean energy is needed, but it needs to be developed in a way that is socially just, he said. “We are Wykanish-Pum, the Salmon People, and in our creation story Salmon gave up himself so we can have nourishment. And in return, we promised to speak on behalf of our resources,” Corinne Sams said at the ceremony. Since the federal dams were constructed, 13 salmon and steelhead stocks have been listed as threatened and endangered.But the Umatillas and others at the ceremony also discussed the complexity of the issues surrounding historic salmon declines, including climate change and population growth.Under the agreement the Biden administration will spend more than $1 billion, including $300 million from the Bonneville Power Administration over a decade to restore native fish and their habitats.The Department of Energy will help develop tribally sponsored clean energy infrastructure to help replace hydropower production should the four dams — from Ice Harbor near Pasco to Lower Granite near Lewiston, Idaho — be torn down.Studies will be conducted by the federal government or with federal funding on how the services now provided by the dams could be replaced, including the barging of farm products and other goods, irrigation, recreation and electricity production.

Over 2 million animals perish in Mongolia’s harshest winter since 1975 - (video) Over 2 million animals perish in Mongolia's harshest winter since 1975 This winter, Mongolia endures its snowiest season since 1975, leading to the deaths of 2.1 million head of livestock from starvation and exhaustion, a stark rise from figures reported just days ago. The extreme weather event, known as dzud, has intensified due to a preceding summer drought, severely impacting the country’s herding communities. Mongolia is currently experiencing one of its coldest and snowiest winters since 1975, with more than 2 million animals having perished so far. This figure, as confirmed by Gantulga Batsaikhan of the country’s agriculture ministry on February 26, 2024, represents a sharp rise from the 670 000 fatalities reported less than 10 days earlier. According to official statistics, Mongolia had 64.7 million such animals, including sheep, goats, horses and cows, at the end of 2023. The country, accustomed to severe weather from December to March with temperatures dropping as low as -50 °C (-58 °F), is facing a winter more brutal than usual. The United Nations has highlighted the gravity of this year’s dzud, a phenomenon resulting in massive livestock losses, with 70% of Mongolia currently experiencing “dzud” or “near dzud” conditions. This is a significant increase from 17% the previous year. The situation has been further aggravated by a summer drought, leaving animals without sufficient fat reserves to withstand the winter. Mongolia’s nomadic herders, who make up about a third of the country’s 3.3 million population, are particularly vulnerable. The extreme weather has not only resulted in a scarcity of grazing grass due to snow-covered pastures turning to ice, but it has also isolated herders, making it challenging to procure feed and hay from nearby towns. Mongolia has experienced six dzuds in the past decade, including the winter of 2022 to 2023 when 4.4 million head of livestock perished. Reflecting on the historic impact, the deadliest dzud recorded was in the winter of 2010 to 2011, when over 10 million animals died.

England’s farms suffer as one of the wettest winters devastates crops - England’s agricultural sector is facing a crisis as one of the wettest winters in decades leads to widespread flooding, destroying thousands of acres of crops and placing significant financial pressure on farmers. The National Farmers’ Union (NFU) conference has put flooding at the top of its agenda, with farmers across the country reporting catastrophic losses. Farmers across England are recounting the toll of an exceptionally wet winter, with Andrew Ward, a Lincolnshire-based arable farmer, revealing the devastating effects on his and nearby farms. Despite his efforts to mitigate the damage, Ward anticipates that yields will be significantly reduced, citing that only about 25% of winter crops were planted due to the high rainfall. The economic fallout is profound, with one farm potentially facing a loss of £70,000 due to flooded lands. England’s hydrological data shows that only 4 of 139 areas had normal rainfall levels in the 12 months to January 2024. The rest experienced notably to exceptionally high levels, leading to the wettest periods on record for several regions, including the agriculturally rich Kent area. The NFU conference, held February 20 and 21, highlighted severe problems caused by the floods, with outgoing president Minette Batters and Lincolnshire county vice-chair Henry Moreton sharing firsthand accounts of the flooding’s impact. The conference also served as a platform for discussions on the need for improved flood management and compensation for farmers, particularly those sacrificing their land to protect surrounding communities from flooding. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s attendance at the NFU conference brought these issues to the forefront, with calls for a review of the flood defence grant scheme. While Sunak cited increased flood defense spending and existing support frameworks, the agricultural community continues to seek more concrete solutions and compensation mechanisms. According to the Guardian, this year’s adverse conditions and the government’s response to flooding and post-Brexit agricultural policies have notably affected farmer support for the Conservative party, with polling data indicating a significant shift away from the Tories among farmers.

Indonesia’s strongest tornado on record - Last week, Indonesia experienced its strongest tornado on record, injuring at least 33 people and causing extensive damage to hundreds of buildings in the West Java province, according to government officials.Indonesia’s strongest tornado on record hit West Java Province at 16:00 LT on Wednesday, February 21, 2024, prompting immediate response and investigation by local authorities and scientists.Erma Yulihastin, a climatologist with the government’s research body BRIN, announced plans to “reconstruct and investigate the tornado,” noting its similarity to the more violent tornadoes typically observed in the northern hemisphere.The tornado’s path included the sub-districts of Cicalengka and Rancaekek in Bandung Regency, as well as Jatinangor and Cimanggung in Sumedang Regency, causing significant injuries and damage. At least 30 people suffered injuries, predominantly from being struck by debris from houses and trees.Hadi Rahmad, a spokesman for the West Java disaster mitigation agency said over 800 families were affected by the disaster, with 13 factories and 10 houses in Sumedang and an additional 18 factories and 233 homes in Bandung sustaining damage.

• More incredible footage of the tornado that hit Jatinangor, Sumedang Regency, West Java Province, Indonesia | 21 February 2024 |#Tornado #Indonesia #Jatinangor #angintopanpic.twitter.com/KUHFcSfIHL
• Whoahhh!! A massive #tornado hit #Rancaekek, West Java in Indonesia this afternoon ️ I’ve stitched together 4 video clips- credit to the people who took them pic.twitter.com/u25ICPrf4S

US temperature records breaking border to border in February heat wave (map) Unseasonably high temperatures are breaking records from the southern border to Canada, as a warm front blankets most of the U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains.More than 100 temperature records broke on Monday from Texas to Minnesota, with Killeen, Texas, reaching 100 degrees. Abilene, Texas, hit 94 degrees, followed by Dallas at 93 degrees, Oklahoma City at 88 degrees, and other notable highs including Omaha’s 80 degrees and Chicago’s 71 degrees. Fargo, N.D., saw its first 60-degree February day in 66 years.Century-old February temperature records were also broken in Abilene, Omaha and Minneapolis.The weather comes from an unusual low pressure system that is drawing moist, warm southern air toward the north. But it won’t last long; a frigid high-pressure system is expected to move into the Midwest late Tuesday and make its way to the East Coast by Thursday. Des Moines, Iowa, hit a record high of 78 on Monday but will cool to just a 33 degree high by Wednesday due to the oncoming cold front, while Montana and the Dakotas already saw temperatures in the single digits Monday.Powered by a warming climate and a strong El Niño weather pattern, the 2023-2024 winter is expected to be one of the warmest ever for the U.S.National weather forecasters have already predicted that 2024 is almost guaranteed to be the hottest year ever, breaking the record set just last year.

Texas Panhandle wildfire grows into one of largest in state's history (AP) — A cluster of wildfires scorched the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday, including a blaze that grew into one of the largest in state history, as flames moved with alarming speed and blackened the landscape across a vast stretch of small towns and cattle ranches. An 83-year-old grandmother from the tiny town of Stinnett was the lone confirmed fatality. However, authorities have yet to make a thorough search for victims and have warned the damage to some communities is extensive.Known as the Smokehouse Creek Fire, the largest blaze expanded to more than 1,300 square miles (3,370 square kilometers) and jumped into parts of neighboring Oklahoma. It is now larger than the state of Rhode Island, and the Texas A&M Forest Service said the flames were only about 3% contained.“I believe the fire will grow before it gets fully contained,” said Nim Kidd, chief of the Texas Division of Emergency Management.The largest fire recorded in state history was the 2006 East Amarillo Complex fire, which burned about 1,400 square miles (3,630 square kilometers) and resulted in 13 deaths.Walls of flames were pushed by powerful winds while huge plumes of smoke billowed hundreds of feet in the air across the sparsely populated region. The smoke delayed aerial surveillance of the damage in some areas.“There was one point where we couldn’t see anything,” said Greg Downey, 57, describing his escape as flames bore down on his neighborhood. “I didn’t think we’d get out of it.” The woman who died was identified by family members as Joyce Blankenship, a former substitute teacher. Her grandson, Lee Quesada, said he had posted in a community forum asking if anyone could try and locate her. Quesada said deputies told his uncle on Wednesday that they had found Blankenship’s remains in her burned home. Hemphill County Emergency Management Coordinator Bill Kendall described the charred terrain as being “like a moonscape. ... It’s just all gone.”Kendall said about 40 homes were burned around the perimeter of the town of Canadian, but no buildings were lost inside the community. Kendall also said he saw “hundreds of cattle just dead, laying in the fields.”Tresea Rankin videotaped her own home in Canadian as it burned.“Thirty-eight years of memories, that’s what you were thinking,” Rankin said of watching the flames destroy her house. “Two of my kids were married there ... But you know, it’s OK, the memories won’t go away.”The small town of Fritch, north of Amarillo, lost hundreds of homes in a 2014 fire and appeared to be hit hard again. Mayor Tom Ray said Wednesday that an estimated 40-50 homes were destroyed on the southern edge. Ray said natural gas remained shut off for the town of 2,200.Residents are probably not “prepared for what they’re going to see if they pull into town,” Hutchinson County Emergency Management spokesperson Deidra Thomas said in a social media livestream. She compared the damage to a tornado.Authorities have not said what ignited the fires, but strong winds, dry grass and unseasonably warm temperatures fed the blazes. Near Borger, a community of about 13,000 people, emergency officials at one point late Tuesday answered questions from panicked residents on Facebook and told them to get ready to leave if they had not already.“It was like a ring of fire around Borger. There was no way out ... all four main roads were closed,” said Adrianna Hill, whose home was within about a mile of the fire. She said wind that blew the fire in the opposite direction “saved our butts.”

Texas wildfires: Deadly Texas blaze torches 1 million acres – the largest in state history – as more infernos rage (CNN) — Catastrophic wildfires ripping across the Texas Panhandle have killed at least two people and threaten to destroy more homes, cattle and livelihoods as the biggest inferno in state history engulfs more land every minute.The Smokehouse Creek Fire has now torched more than 1 million acres in Texas alone, making it the largest fire on record in the state. The blaze has also charred more than 31,500 acres in Oklahoma as of Wednesday afternoon, that state’s forestry service said. Altogether, the fire is among largest in the Lower 48 since reliable record-keeping began in the 1980s.The inferno is one of three fires burning in the Texas Panhandle – with no end in sight.Despite light precipitation in the area Thursday, dry air and ferocious winds are expected to return Friday and into the weekend – likely fueling the flames.The wildfires have already scorched about 2,000 square miles – roughly the same amount of land as the entire state of Delaware.Two people have been killed by the Smokehouse Creek Fire. Cindy Owen was found dead in Hemphill County, Chris Ray, Texas Department of Public Safety Sergeant, told CNN.In Hutchinson County, the fire claimed the life of 83-year-old Joyce Blankenship, her family said.“The house was gone,” said her grandson Nathan Blankenship. “There was no way she could’ve gotten out.” Latest developments:

• • Power outages are a major concern as North Plains Electric Cooperative said it has “approximately 115 miles of line to rebuild.”
• • In Hemphill County alone, 400,000 acres are burned, scores of homes have been destroyed and thousands of cattle have died, Hemphill County AgriLife Extension agent Andy Holloway said. More than 85% of cattle in Texas are raised in the Panhandle, according to agricultural officials.
• • In addition to the mammoth Smokehouse Creek Fire, the Windy Deuce Fire in Texas has torched 142,000 acres and was 50% contained as of early Thursday afternoon.
• • The Grape Vine Creek Fire has charred 30,000 acres and is 60% contained.
• • The Magenta Fire is also still burning and has seared 2,500 acres and is 65% contained.
• • The 687 Reamer Fire burned more than 2,000 acres before merging into the Smokehouse Creek Fire Thursday.

Smokehouse Creek Fire in Texas explodes to become second-largest wildfire in U.S. history after burning 1.1 million acres - In the Texas Panhandle, lampposts are now melted, power line posts are split in half and homes and properties have been reduced to charred remains. The Smokehouse Creek Fire that broke out on Monday has since extended to 1.1 million acres, firefighters said Thursday, quickly becoming the "largest and most destructive" in state history. The West Odessa Volunteer Fire Department said overnight that the fire, located in Hutchinson County, grew to 1.1 million acres and is roughly 3% contained. "This is now both the largest and most destructive fire in Texas history," the department wrote on Facebook. "It is also the second largest wildfire in U.S. history." On Wednesday, the Texas A&M Forest Service increased the state's wildland fire preparedness level to a 3 out of 5, meaning that "wildfire activity is impacting several regions of the state as the result of drought, dry vegetation or frequent fire weather events." The group also confirmed the fire's rapid growth to more than 1 million acres at 3% containment on Thursday morning. The nearby 687 Reamer Fire that started in the same county has now "burned into this fire," the Forest Service said. There are at least five active wildfires throughout the state, with the Smokehouse Creek Fire being the largest by far. The second-largest active wildfire as of Thursday is the Windy Deuce Fire in Moore County, which has grown to an estimated 142,000 acres and is 30% contained, according to the Forest Service. Other active wildfires include the Grape Vine Creek Fire in Gray County and the Magenta Fire in Oldham County.The Smokehouse Creek Fire had reached historic levels after just a few days. Previously, the biggest fire to ever ignite in Texas had been 2006's East Amarillo Complex fire, which grew to more than 907,000 acres. One person has died in the Smokehouse Creek Fire in Hutchinson County, a county official told CBS Texas Wednesday night. The victim's grandson confirmed the death to CBS News, identifying the victim as 83-year-old Joyce Blankenship.The fire also destrouted most of the historic $180 million Turkey Track Ranch, which was home to "one of the largest and bloodiest battles of the Great Plains" near the end of the Civil War, and the site of the Red River War that started in 1874. The property, one of the oldest ranches in the state that covers roughly 80,000 acres, has seen an estimated 80% of its pastures, plains and creek bottom burned in the fire, CBS affiliate KHOU reports. "The loss of livestock, crops and wildlife, as well as ranch fencing and other infrastructure throughout our property as well as other ranches and homes across the region is, we believe, unparalleled in our history," the owners said in a statement. "...We are all completely devastated and personally heartbroken by the magnitude of this horrific event."

Smokehouse Creek Fire, second-largest in U.S. history, merges with another to stretch across huge swath of Texas Panhandle - In the Texas Panhandle, the Smokehouse Creek Fire that broke out earlier this week has since extended to nearly 1.1 million acres, firefighters said Thursday, quickly becoming the "largest and most destructive" in state history. The historic blaze has now merged with another wildfire to stretch across a huge swath of the Panhandle.As of Friday, the fire located in Hutchinson County was about 1.078 million acres and just 15% contained, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service. Lampposts have been melted, power line posts are split in half and homes and properties have been reduced to charred remains. "This is now both the largest and most destructive fire in Texas history," the West Odessa Volunteer Fire Department wrote on Facebook. "It is also the second largest wildfire in U.S. history." Texas Gov. Greg Abbott told reporters the destruction from the fires doesn't compare to the aftermath of other natural disasters."When you look at the damages that have occurred here, it's just gone, completely gone, nothing left but ashes on the ground, so those who are affected by this have gone through utter devastation," Abbott said during a news conference Friday. "They are going through challenges that others cannot comprehend."About 400 to 500 structures have so far been destroyed in the fires, Abbott said.

Smokehouse Creek Fire could spread in Texas and Oklahoma this weekend - - A Texas inferno fueled by dry, abnormally warm conditions has destroyed as many as 500 structures, scorched more than 1 million acres of land and killed at least two people since igniting in the Texas Panhandle on Monday afternoon, according to state officials. The Smokehouse Creek Fire, the largest of the four active wildfires ripping across the region, covers an area greater than the size of Rhode Island, according to the Associated Press. The blaze was 15 percent contained and has spread into Oklahoma, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. It is the largest wildfire on record in Texas. “When you look at the damages that have occurred here, it’s just gone, completely gone,” Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) said during a news conference Friday. “Nothing left but ashes on the ground.” Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 60 Texas counties on Tuesday, and President Biden, during a Thursday trip to the U.S.-Mexico border, thanked first responders for “risking their lives to save others” and pledged to help “everyone affected by these wildfires.” It is unclear what started the fire, and authorities are investigating. The Smokehouse Creek Fire has burned through about 1,076,000 acres in Texas and Oklahoma, leaving dead cattle, burned crops and charred homes in its wake. It was 15 percent contained at about 3 p.m. local time Saturday. There are three other active wildfires in Texas and Oklahoma, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. As of Saturday afternoon, the Grape Vine Creek Fire covered 30,000 acres and was 60 percent contained. The Windy Deuce Fire covered about 142,000 acres and was 60 percent contained. The Magenta Fire had burned 3,300 acres and was 85 percent contained as of Friday morning. Record-breaking high temperatures coupled with low relative humidity and strong winds have fueled the Panhandle wildfires. Winter temperatures hit 100 degrees in Killeen, 93 degrees in Dallas and 82 degrees in Amarillo on Monday — the day the fires began, according to The Washington Post. (For reference: Amarillo’s Feb. 26 average is 59 degrees.) There was a brief respite Thursday, when lower temperatures and light snow showers slowed the fires and made them easier to fight. However, warm, dry, windy conditions across the Texas Panhandle over the weekend pose a “very high” wildfire threat, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service. Temperatures in the region were in the high 70s and 80s on Saturday, with wind gusts as high as 45 mph, according to the National Weather Service, which issued a “red flag warning” because of high fire danger through Sunday evening. On Sunday, temperatures are expected to be in the high 70s and low 80s, while wind gusts could reach 50 mph.

Texas wildfire: Biggest fire in state history could worsen with strong winds, dry weather | CNN The wildfire in Texas has already killed two people, demolished hundreds of structures and obliterated thousands of cattle as it became the biggest blaze in the state’s history. And now, weather conditions threaten to make things even worse.Some 8 million people across the Central Plains are under “red flag” warnings and temperatures are above normal in the Texas Panhandle.The Storm Prediction Center said a wide swath of the region on Saturday were under an elevated risk of fire activity – from western Texas to southeastern South Dakota, with a critical fire threat in the Texas Panhandle. About 4.5 million people fall into this risk zone, including residents of Denver and Colorado Springs in Colorado, and Lubbock and Amarillo in Texas.So far, the Smokehouse Creek Fire has spread across more than 1 million acres and has become the biggest Texas wildfire on record. The deadly inferno has also destroyed 31,600 acres in Oklahoma. It is only 15% contained. And the fire is just one of five blazes currently scorching the Texas Panhandle, destroying as many as 500 structures.This weekend, the Central Plains is expected to see southwesterly winds gusting up to 55 mph Saturday and Sunday, with wind speeds peaking in the afternoon hours both days, when temperatures are at their hottest.Sunday’s fire weather threat will be greatest for the Texas Panhandle and western Texas, according to the Storm Prediction Center.Roughly 2 million people are at risk, including people in Lubbock, Amarillo, Midland and Odessa. The latest developments:

• • Four more fires burning: The Windy Deuce Fire in Moore County has burned through 142,000 acres and was 60% contained as of Friday, according to the Texas A&M Forest Service. The Grape Vine Creek Fire in Gray County has spread through 30,000 acres and is 60% contained. The Magenta Fire in Oldham County has destroyed 3,297 acres and is 85% contained. And the 687 Reamer fire in Hutchinson County has scorched 2,000 and is 10% contained. State officials said more than 120 miles of electric lines have been destroyed.
• • Two deaths reported: Truck driver Cindy Owen was working about 50 miles north of Pampa, Texas, on Tuesday when she got caught in the Smokehouse Creek Fire, her sister-in-law told CNN. She left her truck and tried running for safety but died in the blaze, said Jennifer Mitchell, the wife of Owen’s brother, said. In nearby Hutchinson County, 83-year-old Joyce Blankenship was killed, her family said. “The house was gone,” her grandson Nathan Blankenship said. “There was no way she could’ve gotten out.”
• • Blaze mangles state cattle industry: The fires are tearing through the Panhandle, which is home to 85% of the state’s cattle industry. The blaze has already killed thousands of cattle and has taken out other livestock, crops and equipment. State Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller on Saturday asked for hay and feed donations and prayers for residents who have lost homes and livestock. He expects the death toll for livestock to soar.

Vast swaths of US will be exposed to polluted air by 2054, says report Vast swaths of the continental US will be exposed to unhealthy, polluted air by 2054, according to an alarming new report. Researchers at First Street Foundation, a non-profit that analyzes climate risk, found that one in four Americans are already exposed to air that is deemed “unhealthy” by the Air Quality Index (AQI), which provides daily air quality readings. That number is expected to grow by 50% in the next few decades, with an estimated total of 125 million Americans experiencing dangerous air pollution by the middle of the century.The report warns that climate-related wildfires and heatwaves are undoing many of the gains from federal clean air regulations. Between 2010 and 2016, the United States started to see an increase in air pollution for the first time in 80 years, said Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications research at First Street.“If we’re going to start thinking about solutions, we have to start combating the origin of the air pollutants, which are wildfires and extreme heat,” Porter said.In June 2023, smoke from forest fires in Canada caused Americans to suffer the worst day of average exposure to such pollution since 2006. The orange, apocalyptic haze that blanketed much of the continent carried PM2.5, tiny air pollutants that can lodge deep inside a person’s lungs. The particles, which measure less than 2.5 microns in diameter, are tiny enough to cross the blood-brain barrier, and high levels of exposure are linked to dementia and Parkinson’s disease, along with a host of respiratory illnesses.This week, US health researchers found that there is no safe amount of exposure to PM2.5.“That’s why it’s so important to have this concerted, across-the-aisle effort to improve air quality,” said Porter.The federal government successfully reduced air pollution between 1950 and 2010, with the Clean Air Act.Despite these gains, Porter said, the Clean Air Act is ill equipped to tackle wildfires and other modern drivers of air pollution. Federal regulators categorize wildfires as “an exceptional event” that does not count against air quality goals, allowing the EPA to strike pollution caused by them from the air monitoring record, even though wildfire smoke accounts for a third of all particulate matter pollution.“Historically, we have focused on regulating industry – we put regulations on automobiles, we put regulations on factories and we lowered the type of emissions associated with air pollution at the time,” Porter said.If the federal government wants to ensure cleaner air for future Americans, Porter said regulators should focus on the pollution that is created by wildfire smoke and invest in mitigation strategies like controlled burns.Without significant governmental action, the public health consequences of dirty air will fall on the shoulders of already vulnerable communities – particularly Black Americans.Years of discriminatory decisions over the placement of highways and industrial facilities have led to Black people being exposed to 38% more polluted air than white people. Black children are five times more likely to be hospitalized due to asthma than white children.

El Niño will cause record-breaking heat across the world this year A climate model has forecast where the most extreme heat will occur during the current El Niño phase, including the Caribbean and the South China SeaThe Caribbean, the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and parts of Alaska and the Amazon will have their hottest 12-month period on record this year due to the ongoing El Niño weather pattern, according to a forecast by a climate model.“These are the places where there will be an elevated risk of extremes, and these extremes are really damaging,” says team member Michael McPhaden at the NOAA Pacific Marine Environment Laboratory in Seattle, Washington.“They are damaging to human health and they increase the risks of wildfire. And in the oceans, they increase the risk of marine heatwaves, which are damaging to marine ecosystems, fisheries and corals,” he says. Global surface temperatures across much of the world are currently at an all-time high. The main reason for this is the warming caused by carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. But on top of this, a strong El Niño phase that began in the middle of 2023 is pushing up temperatures even further. During El Niño, warm water spreads across the surface of the Pacific Ocean towards South America. This vast area of warm water transfers a lot of ocean heat into the atmosphere, causing surface temperatures to rise. In the opposite phase, known as La Niña, this process reverses: cold water spreads across the surface of the Pacific away from South America, absorbing heat from the atmosphere and reducing surface temperatures.This means the global average surface temperature usually hits record levels during El Niño phases and then declines during La Niña.McPhaden and his colleagues used a computer model that accounts for aerosol pollution and volcanic eruptions in addition to El Niño to try to forecast where in the world record heat will occur. Their regional forecasts are for the average surface temperature over the period from July 2023 to June 2024.“There’s a real value to having this kind of a warning, even if it’s not precisely timed to a particular season,” says McPhaden. “It gives you some lead time for preparing on how best to protect lives, property, living marine resources and economic development.”The team considered two scenarios: a strong El Niño and a more moderate one. It is now clear that we are seeing a strong El Niño – in fact, it is likely to be among the top five strongest El Niños since 1950, says McPhaden.For this strong El Niño scenario, the team forecasts that the global average surface temperature between July 2023 to June 2024 will be between 1.1 and 1.2°C higher than the 1951 to 1980 average.This is equivalent to 1.4 to 1.5°C above the 1850 to 1900 average, New Scientist calculates, which is regarded as the pre-industrial benchmark. This suggests the model is underestimating temperatures, as this level has already been exceeded. From January 2023 to January 2024, the average global surface temperature was more than 1.5°C above the 1850 to 1900 average, and during January 2024 it was 1.7°C above this level.Temperature records have already been smashed during the ongoing El Niño, especially in the tropics, says Maximiliano Herrera, an independent climatologist who tracks extreme temperatures. “This is a super one,” he says. “The record heat is persistent and inescapable.”

Climate: 2023 – 24 El Niño likely to cause record-breaking average temperatures in some areas - Several areas of the globe — including the Bay of Bengal, the Philippines, and the Caribbean Sea — are likely to experience record-breaking average surface air temperatures in the year period up to June 2024 as a result of the ongoing El Niño phenomenon. The modelling results, published in Scientific Reports, also suggest that there is an estimated 90 percent chance of record-breaking global mean surface temperatures occurring over the same period under a moderate or strong El Niño scenario.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, centred in the tropical Pacific, is a key driver of climate variability around the world. Both its warm phase, El Niño, and its colder phase, La Niña, influence weather conditions, with the heat released to the atmosphere from the western Pacific Ocean during an El Niño leading to an accelerated rise in annual global mean surface temperatures (GMST). A slight increase in GMST has been strongly linked to significant increases in surface air temperatures during extreme regional heating events.Congwen Zhu and colleagues modelled the effects of the 2023 – 24 El Niño on the regional variation in average surface air temperatures from the 1951 – 1980 mean between July 2023 and June 2024. They used this period to ensure that the typical peak of an El Niño event, between November and January, was always included. The authors found that under a moderate El Niño scenario, the Bay of Bengal and the Philippines were predicted to experience record-breaking average surface air temperatures over the period. Under a strong El Niño, the Caribbean Sea, South China Sea, and areas of the Amazon and Alaska were also predicted to experience record-breaking average surface air temperatures. The authors also modelled the effects of El Niño on GMST over the same period and found that under a moderate or stronger El Niño, there was a 90% chance that GMST would break the historical record. In the moderate scenario, the authors estimated the 2023 – 24 GMST as being 1.03 – 1.10 °C above the benchmark 1951 – 1980 mean, whilst for the strong scenario, they estimated GMST as 1.06 – 1.20 °C above that mean.The authors warn that record-breaking average temperatures will likely challenge regions’ current capability to cope with the consequences of excess heat. They also note that high surface air temperatures can lead to a significant increase in the likelihood of extreme climate events — including wildfires, tropical cyclones, and heatwaves — particularly in oceanic and coastal areas where the higher heat capacity of the ocean leads to climate conditions persisting for extended periods of time. More information can be found here.

Terrifying maps reveal the three areas of the globe that will experience record-breaking temperatures this year thanks to El Niño -Last year may have been the hottest on record, but a new study has warned that the worst is yet to come. Terrifying maps have revealed the areas that are most likely to be baked by record-breaking heat this year thanks to El Niño - an unusual warming of surface sea temperatures that happens once every few years. The Bay of Bengal, the Philippines, and the Caribbean Sea are all likely to be hit by record heatwaves before June this year, according to experts from the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.But that's not to say that people in other areas won't be affected. The study also warns that there's a 90 per cent chance of record-breaking global average surface temperatures occurring over the same period.The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, as it is technically called, is one of the key drivers of climate differences around the world.Centred mainly in the Tropical Pacific, warmer waters push up the annual global mean surface temperature, which changes weather worldwide.And as the world experiences even small rises in average temperature some regions see significant increases during local extreme heat events. This effect is so pronounced that the researchers write in the paper, published in Scientific Reports, that it is 'the strongest year-to-year determinant of climate variation on the planet.'To find out just how El Niño affects local temperature spikes, the researchers created a model that could estimate how hot areas would become during an El Niño year.The researchers found that in the moderate scenario, the Bay of Bengal, the Philippines, and the Caribbean Sea will all experience record highs of more than 1.8°F (1°C) above average.Under a strong El Niño scenario, however, the researchers predict that the effects will be even more pronounced.If this holds then areas of Alaska, the Amazon, and the South China Sea will all also hit record temperatures.In Alaska, these spikes will be as much as 4.32°F (2.4°C) above the 1951-1980 average.On a global level, the researchers found that even in the moderate scenario there was a 90 per cent chance that the global mean surface temperature (GSMT) would break the historical record this year. Under a moderate El Niño, the GSMT will be between 1.8 and 1.98°F (1.03-1.10°C) above the average, while a strong event will see temperatures soaring 1.9 to 2.16°F (1.06–1.20°C) above that mean. The researchers write: 'Strong El Niño events can cause GMST to rise rapidly, potentially exceeding the preferred ambitious 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement for a short period.'Worryingly, these models also suggest that the world may be at a greater risk of extreme weather events.In Alaska, the researchers note that there is a risk of glacier or permafrost melting which could lead to sea levels rising or heating spiralling out of control.

Why the warming effects of this El Niño event will linger for several months — The effects of the El Niño event currently bringing extreme moisture to the southwestern U.S. are expected to linger for months, with record heat recorded all over the world, scientists say. Several regions around the planet are expected to experience record-breaking average surface air temperatures through the summer as a result of heating influence from the current El Niño pattern, according to a study published in Scientific Reports on Thursday. The study’s modeling says there’s a 90% chance of record-breaking global mean surface temperatures occurring under a moderate or strong El Niño scenario, the researchers found. The Bay of Bengal and the Philippines are predicted to experience record-breaking average surface air temperatures under a moderate El Niño scenario, according to the study. Under a strong El Niño, the Caribbean Sea, South China Sea and areas of the Amazon and Alaska are also predicted to experience record-breaking average surface air temperatures, the researchers said. In addition, there is a 90% chance that global mean surface temperatures will break the historical record this summer. The researchers estimate global mean surface temperatures to reach 1.10 degrees Celsius above the benchmark of the 1951 to 1980 mean under a moderate scenario or up to 1.2 degrees Celsius above the benchmark of the 1951 to 1980 mean under a strong scenario. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a warmer-than-normal surface ocean temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific, is a key driver of climate variability around the world, according to scientists. Historically, an El Niño event causes a large margin of heating months after the peak, which also occurred in 2016 and 1998, records show. The current El Niño pattern has already peaked and will be over by the spring. But record-high global mean surface temperatures influenced by the system could prevail as late as June of this year, according to the paper. A slight increase in global mean surface temperatures has been strongly linked to significant increases in surface air temperatures during extreme regional heating events, the researchers said. Record-breaking average temperatures will likely challenge regions’ current capability to cope with the consequences of excess heat, as high surface air temperatures can lead to a significant increase in the likelihood of extreme climate events including wildfires, tropical cyclones and heat waves, the authors warn. The effects will be especially felt in oceanic and coastal areas where the higher heat capacity of the ocean leads to climate conditions persisting for extended periods of time, according to researchers. The current El Niño system has been inundating the southwest U.S. with excessive precipitation. It has also contributed to warming patterns in the U.S., such as in the Great Lakes region, which barely formed any ice over this past winter season.

Scientists Are Freaking Out About Ocean Temperatures - From his office at the University of Miami, Brian McNoldy, an expert in hurricane formation, is tracking the latest temperature data from the North Atlantic with a mixture of concern and bewilderment. For the past year, oceans around the world have been substantially warmer than usual. Last month was the hottest January on record in the world’s oceans, and temperatures have continued to rise since then. The heat wave has been especially pronounced in the North Atlantic.“The North Atlantic has been record-breakingly warm for almost a year now,” McNoldy said. “It’s just astonishing. Like, it doesn’t seem real.”Across the unusually warm Atlantic, in Cambridge, England, Rob Larter, a marine scientist who tracks polar ice levels, is equally perplexed.“It’s quite scary, partly because I’m not hearing any scientists that have a convincing explanation of why it is we’ve got such a departure,” he said. “We’re used to having a fairly good handle on things. But the impression at the moment is that things have gone further and faster than we expected. That’s an uncomfortable place as a scientist to be.”Spin the globe to the south, and the situation is similarly dire.“The sea ice around the Antarctic is just not growing,” said Matthew England, a professor at the University of New South Wales who studies ocean currents. “The temperature’s just going off the charts. It’s like an omen of the future.”Global warming, caused by the burning of fossil fuels, has been driving up global temperatures on land and in the sea for decades now. Over the past year, worldwide average temperatures were more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, higher than before the industrial age. New data from a variety of sources has led some climate scientists to suggest that global warming is accelerating.Given the overall warming trend, higher temperatures in the oceans aren’t a complete surprise. Oceans absorb most of the additional heat that greenhouse gasses trap near the surface of the Earth, and have been steadily warming for years. The current El Niño weather cycle is also leading to additional heat in the Pacific Ocean and allowing more energy to be released into the atmosphere.Yet the past year has come as a shock even to those who follow the data closely.“We all know that there’s been a rapid warming, particularly over the last few decades,” Larter said. “But over the last 18 months, it’s jumped up beyond what we expected.” Scientists are offering a range of explanations for the record heat in the North Atlantic. One surprising factor may be a reduction in pollution in the area. In 2020, a new rule went into effect that limited the amount of sulfur dioxide contained in the fuel used by container ships. That has reduced the amount of particulate matter in the air, which let in more solar radiation and contributed to global warming.“When those aerosols were in the sky above the shipping lanes, they helped create a cloud cover, and there’s much less now,” McNoldy said. “That’s a legitimate thing.” But the reduction of sulfur dioxide alone can’t explain the North Atlantic’s extreme heat, scientists said. Another factor may be the complex feedback loops in the Earth’s weather patterns. The North Atlantic has been unusually clear lately, with fewer clouds than normal to block the sunlight from heating the water. The area has also been less windy than normal, which may have also led to a spike in temperatures. Without strong winds, colder water from deeper in the ocean doesn’t rise to the surface as readily, England said. In the near term, McNoldy said the warmer waters in The Atlantic could fuel a strong and lengthy hurricane season.“Compared to other fairly significant hurricane seasons, this is way warmer at this point in the year,” he said.The marine heat is also expected to reduce Arctic sea ice, Larter said. “What’s bad news for sea ice has a lot of knock-on effects,” he said. “The formation of sea ice is the process that really drives a lot of the ocean’s circulation. And if the overturning circulation slows down, that really has climate impacts across the world.” Recent research has suggested that as glaciers melt and more fresh water enters the Atlantic, a crucial ocean current could falter, potentially leading to drastic changes in global weather patterns, such as a rapid reduction in temperatures across Europe. McNoldy said it was too early to say whether the ongoing heat wave is part of the early stages of such a change. “I hope it’s not something much worse, like, you know, like some significant change in the ocean current,” he said. “That would have far greater implications.”

This chart of ocean temperatures should really scare you -If you were to dip your toes into the middle of the North Atlantic — say, somewhere between South Carolina and Spain — the water would feel frigid. You definitely wouldn’t want to swim. It’s winter.Yet that water would, in fact, be very warm, relatively speaking. Right now, the North Atlantic ocean is, on average, warmer than any other time on record, running about 2 degrees Fahrenheit hotter than the average temperature over the last three decades.To understand just how unusual this is, take a look at the chart below. The wave of squiggly lines represents the sea surface temperature, averaged across the North Atlantic, from 1981 to now; each squiggle is a different year.The thick orangey-red line that runs the length of the chart and hovers above nearly all the others is from 2023. The North Atlantic started breaking heat temperature records in March of last year.Even more alarming is the departure that the new, shorter line from 2024 represents. It’s far above the rest, indicating this extreme, anomalous increase has continued into this year. “It’s significantly warmer than it ever has been for this time of year,” Brian McNoldy, a climate researcher at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, told Vox. “This is deeply troubling,” he recently wrote on X.All this heat is not only a problem for marine ecosystems today, scientists say. It’s also a warning of what could come — including what could put human life in harm’s way.A warm Atlantic is one signal that the planet, as a whole, is heating up. There are others: This year, large stretches of the US are experiencing a “lost winter” with record-warm temperatures (Minneapolis-St. Paul reached a record 65 degrees earlier this week). NASA, meanwhile, recently confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record. A new study in the journal Nature Climate Change indicates that the planet has already surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, a limit set by the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Fueling this warming are our cars, power plants, and farms, which have blanketed Earth with heat-trapping greenhouse gases. Remarkably, 90 percent or so of that added warmth is absorbed by the oceans; without them, we’d be even more screwed.A handful of more obscure reasons help explain why the North Atlantic, specifically, has been so hot, as my colleague Umair Irfan writes. Some regions of the Atlantic have been less windy, for example. That wind not only cools the ocean surface but sends sand and dust from the Sahara out to sea, where it scatters sunlight back out to space (which further helps cool down the ocean). Ironically, a drop in air pollution — which is ultimately a good thing — may also be helping heat up the ocean.

Accelerating Ocean Heat Breaks All-Time Records - New research finds ocean temperatures… “have now smashed previous heat records for at least seven years in a row.” (Source: Lijing Cheng, et al, New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, January 2024)Certainly, it’s nothing to mess around with as oceans absorb 90% of planetary heat. Maybe that’s too much too quickly to withstand. Or is it a big burp or could it be something much worse? Ocean heat represented on a chart displays a nearly vertical solid move up for over the past year. This is Michael Mann’s famous “hockey stick” applied to ocean temperature! Climate science does not have a record of such a powerful jolt upwards for ocean warming. Maybe something big or even bigger than big is underway. A recent NYT headline tells the story: Scientists Are Freaking Out About Ocean Temperatures, New York Times, February 27, 2023, by suggesting it could be indicative of developments beyond all expectations by mainstream science. January 2024 was the 8^th year in a row when global temperatures “blew past previous records.” The North Atlantic has hit record-breaking temperatures and holding them there for a solid year now. According to scientists: “It’s just astonishing Like, it doesn’t seem real.” (NYT) But it is real!And it should shake up and rattle the cage of every person on the planet because their leaders, who are supposed to address problems like this, are asleep at the switch, sound asleep! It’s not only the North Atlantic that is acting up in a mean-spirited manner. Down south, according to Matthew England, professor at University of New South Wales: “The sea ice around the Antarctic is just not growing… The temperature’s just going off the charts. It’s like an omen of the future,” Ibid. Global warming appears to be infectiously indiscriminate north/south throughout the globe. These are strange times that demand a lot of attention by nation/states of the world that are sitting ducks for surprisingly rapid sea water rise and a host of other troubling ecosystem crash landings. According to NASA, Global Climate Change – Vital Signs of the Planet: Accelerating ocean warming: (1) increases sea level rise due to thermal expansion (2) accelerates melting of major ice sheets, already starting to cascade everywhere on the planet, directly increases sea levels (3) intensifies hurricanes (4) degrades overall ocean health with loss of biodiversity.For example, the Blob event in the Pacific Ocean laid the foundation for what to expect from ocean heat. According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): “An unprecedented marine heat wave known as ‘the Blob’ dominated the northeastern Pacific from 2013 to 2016, and upended ecosystems across a huge swath of the Pacific Ocean. This led to an ecological cascade, causing fishery collapses and fishery disaster determinations.” (The Ongoing Marine Heat Waves in U.S. Waters, Explained, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July 24, 2023) If fishery collapses occurred way back in 2013-16, then what of today’s more overheated ocean? The Blob was unlike anything the West Coast had experienced: From the Gulf of Alaska-to-Baja, California (Mexico) sea surface temperature hit levels 7°F above average.“Fishery collapses” as experienced a decade ago, on top of depleted fish stocks, like we have now, is a formula for disaster for marine life and human life. Globally, overexploited fish stocks, i.e., catching fish faster than they reproduce, has “more than doubled since 1980.” Ergo, most current levels of wild fish catch are unsustainable. (Source: Fish and Overfishing, Our World in Data)“In 2015 a record outbreak of toxic algae shut down West Coast Dungeness crab fisheries worth millions of dollars. Then came seabird die-offs, record numbers of whales entangled in fishing lines, crashing salmon returns, and starving California sea lion pups washing up on beaches, just for starters. You had a number of things occurring that by themselves were just astounding,’ according to Nate Mantua, an atmospheric scientist at NOAA Fisheries’ Southwest Fisheries Science Center. ‘When you put it all together you could hardly believe it.” (Source: Looking Back at The Blob: Record Warming Drives Unprecedented Ocean Change, NOAA Fisheries, Sept. 26, 2019) According to Copernicus, which is the Earth Observation Programme of the European Union: * The average global sea surface temperature (SST) for January over 60°S–60°N reached 20.97°C, a record for January, 0.26°C warmer than the previous warmest January, in 2016, and second highest value for any month in the ERA5 dataset, within 0.01°C of the record from August 2023 (20.98°C). * Since 31 January, the daily SST for 60°S–60°N has reached new absolute records, surpassing the previous highest values from 23rd and 24th of August 2023.

Lake bottom testing shows plastics migrating down into sediment layers - A team of environmentalists, geographers and ecologists affiliated with several institutions in Europe has found that microplastics have migrated into multiple sediment layers in three lakes in Latvia. In their study, published in the journalScience Advances, the group drilled core samples from three lakes in Latvia and analyzed their contents for microplastics. Research over the past few years has shown that microplastics have become pervasive around the planet, from soil where food is grown, to rivers, lakes and streams—and even the clouds. Prior research has also suggested that the Earth has entered a new geological age, moving from the Holocene Epoch to the Anthropocene, a change that most in the Earth science community believe began in the 1950s. Most also agree that the transition is the result of human impact. And because plastics have been tied to so many of the changes that have occurred, some suggest using its presence as a barometer to measure the start of the Anthropocene. In this new study, the research team working in Latvia has found that doing so many not be feasible. The work involved collecting core sediment samples from the bottom of three lakes in Latvia. Each of the samples was then analyzed to measure amounts of plastic. At the outset, the researchers assumed that sample portions preceding the creation and use of plastics would be zero. Unfortunately, that was not the case. The researchers found plastics in sediment that had been deposited as far back as the early 1700s, a finding that indicates that plastics can migrate through sediment down to lower layers. This finding prevents the use of plastics as a barometer for the onset of the Anthropocene. The researchers also note that because there are so many factors involved, including the type of soil that makes up sediment, material in the water and its temperature, and the many types of plastics found, studying their source would prove to be exceedingly challenging.

Boiling tap water may be solution to microplastics - (see caveat) Worried about plastic pollution in your tap water? Try boiling in it, a new study suggests.Boiling tap water can destroy at least 80 percent of three of the most common plastic compounds that can be found in your water, according to findings published Wednesday in Environmental Research Letters.This means drinking tap water that has been boiled, something commonly done in East Asian kitchens already, may be a safer bet than drinking bottled water. Columbia researchers found last month that bottled water can contain up to a quarter-million fragments of nanoplastics per liter.The researchers looked at the impacts of boiling on three compounds that have been found in water — polystyrene, polyethylene and polypropylene. Because these compounds don’t fully break down, they ultimately fragment into nanoplastics the approximate size of a virus — making them the ideal size to wreak havoc with the machinery of human cells, and to cross through key protective filters like the intestinal lining and blood brain barrier.Of the tested compounds, the most concerning is polystyrene, which can inflame the intestine and may kill red blood cells. The others are largely believed to be safe, though endocrinologists argue that the methodology for determining whether plastics are safe has serious flaws.In the study, scientists put the three plastic compounds into ‘hard water’ — a common type of U.S. freshwater that contains high levels of calcium carbonate and magnesium. Those compounds are characteristic of groundwater pulled from cavities in underground limestone deposits, a rock that is mostly made up of calcium carbonate.When the plastic-containing water was boiled, these calcium carbonates formed tiny clumps around most of the microscopic plastics, trapping them within and rendering them harmless.“This simple boiling-water strategy can ‘decontaminate’ [nano- and microplastics, or NMPs] from household tap water and has the potential for harmlessly alleviating human intake of NMPs through water consumption,” the report authors wrote.The report comes with significant caveats, however.Scientists only looked at three of the most common — and in the case of polyethylene and polypropylenes, the safest — plastic polymers. They didn’t look at vinyl chloride, for example, a compound of serious concern last month’s study found in bottled water.Boiling also didn’t manage to remove all of the polymers. That’s worrisome because Monday’s report from the Endocrine Society suggested that because plastic particles are so similar to the chemical messengers that run many key biological systems — and because those systems are so sensitive — there may be no safe level of exposure.Finally, scientists like those at the Endocrine Society are increasingly focused on a risk that goes beyond the plastic compounds themselves: the fact that those polymers are often mixed with “plasticizers” like BPA, PFAS and phthalates which can wreak havoc on the endocrine, circulatory and reproductive systems.It is unclear whether boiling water breaks down these materials. The study only looked at the plastic polymers, not these potential additives. Finally, this method requires either hard water — or the addition of calcium carbonate to work — something that is common but far from universal across the world.Nonetheless, when stacked up next to last month’s findings about microplastics in bottled water, the report suggests a potential answer to how to protect against at least some forms of plastic pollution.

Drone footage captures dramatic cliff collapse at Centerville Beach, California - (video)A significant landslide event occurred at Centerville Beach near Ferndale in Humboldt County, California, on Saturday, February 24, 2024, dramatically altering the landscape as a large portion of land, including parts of the Fleener Creek Trailhead parking lot, slipped into the ocean. The incident, captured by drone footage, showed onlookers fleeing from the cliff edge as it crumbled beneath them, highlighting the sudden and dangerous nature of the collapse. The Bureau of Land Management has noted that landslides along the Fleener Creek Trailhead have been a persistent issue since January, exacerbated by significant winter storms that have battered the state. The trail had been closed to the public since January 18, in response to the escalating risk posed by the unstable land. Local news outlets and social media have played a crucial role in documenting the event, with the father and son drone-operating team, Double B UAV, sharing before-and-after images and dramatic video footage of the landslide.

Widespread flooding and landslides hit Italy, deadly avalanche in Alto Adige - On February 28, 2024, parts of central and northern Italy were hit by heavy rains, causing widespread flooding and landslides. In Alto Adige, an avalanche in Racines di Dentro resulted in one fatality and two serious injuries. The severe weather led to the closure of roads, rail lines, and schools in affected regions, with evacuations ordered due to rising river levels and landslide risks. Central and northern Italy were hit by severe weather in late February 2024, marked by heavy rainfall that led to flooding, landslides, and avalanches. In Alto Adige, a tragic avalanche in Racines di Dentro claimed one life and left two others seriously injured. The situation prompted widespread emergency responses, including road and rail line closures in the Veneto region, school closures in the Province of Alessandria in Piedmont, and evacuations in Lombardy and Tuscany due to high river levels and landslide threats. Emilia Romagna also reported flooding and property damage. Despite the significant impact and the volume of water similar to major floods in 2010 and 2018, the efforts to bolster territorial protection in areas like Veneto have shown resilience against the severe weather, mitigating potential damage and ensuring a quicker recovery for affected communities.

Ash produced by eruption at Popocatepetl extends more than 250 km (155 miles) toward the Gulf of Mexico - Ash produced by eruption at Popocatepetl extends more than 250 km (155 miles) toward the Gulf of Mexico - Increased eruptive activity continues at Mexico’s Popocatepetl volcano on March 1, 2024. The activity over the past 24 hours consisted of 148 exhalations and 1 034 minutes of tremor. Satellite images below, captured on February 28, show a large ash column reaching up to 6.7 km (22 000 feet) above sea level and extending for more than 250 km (155 miles) from the top of the volcano into the Gulf of Mexico: Mexico City’s Benito Juárez International Airport (AICM), while confirming its operational status, has reported cancellations of 22 domestic and international flights due to the ash, which has also prompted safety checks following incidents of planes encountering ash en route to the capital. Slight ashfall was reported in the municipalities of Hueyapan, Yecapixtla and Tetela del Volcán, Morelos; in Ixtacuixtla, Panotla, Tepetitla, Nativitas, Zacatelco, Santa Apolonia Teacalco, San Damián Texóloc, Tetlahuaca, Zacatelco, Xicohtzingo, Papalotla, Tenancingo, Santa Catarina Ayometla, Magdalena Tlaltelulco, San Francisco Tetlanohcan and Teolocholco, Tlaxcala; in Iztacalco, Iztapalapa and Coyoacán, Mexico City; and finally in Atlautla, Ayapango, Ecatzingo, Chalco, Tenango del Aire, Temamatla, Ozumba, Tepetlixpa, Tlalmanalco and Amecameca, State of Mexico. The alert status remains at Level 2. Residents and tourists are advised not to approach the crater within 12 km (7.4 miles) radius. Authorities warned residents that lahars could occur if heavy rainfall remobilizes these fresh ash deposits.

Magma volume under Svartsengi approaches eruption threshold, Iceland - Updated modeling shows Svartsengi’s magma volume reached 7.6 million m³ (268.3 million ft³) on February 26, 2024, and is now near or at the eruption threshold. With seismic activity increasing, particularly east of Sýlingarfell, the Norwegian Meteorological Agency has raised risk assessments, marking the Sundhnjúka crater series at high risk and adjusting other zones accordingly. As of February 26, 2024, the volume of magma at Svartsengi has reached 7.6 million m³ (268.3 million ft³), approaching the threshold that previously led to eruptions — between 8 to 13 million m³ (282.5 million to 459.1 million ft³). “If magma accumulation continues at this rate, the magma volume will reach the lower threshold of volume needed to trigger a dyke propagation and even an eruption on Tuesday, February 27,” the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) reported. Seismic activity has intensified over the weekend, particularly just east of Sýlingarfell, in patterns that resemble those observed prior to past eruptions. This area is believed to overlay the eastern end of the magma intrusion beneath Svartsengi, further indicating a possible imminent eruption. In response to these developments, the Norwegian Meteorological Agency has updated the volcanic risk assessment for the Reykjanes Peninsula. The Sundhnjúka crater series, identified as Zone 3, has been elevated to a high risk (red), indicating eruptions could occur without warning. Zone 1, known as Black Bed, now faces considerable risk (orange) due to potential lava flows. Similarly, Grindavík, or Zone 4, maintains its orange alert but with an emphasized risk of the lava flow. No significant land changes have been detected in Grindavík through GPS or satellite imagery. However, the emergence of new surface cracks, potentially hidden by snow or obscured by recent soil movements, remains a concern, especially with the anticipated melting snow or rainfall. Scientists maintain that in the event of an eruption, it’s most probable for magma to traverse from Svartsengi towards the Sundhnúksgíga series, with the eruption anticipated to occur between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell. The precursor to magma surfacing is characterized by sudden, intense, and localized micro-seismic activities. Drawing from historical eruption patterns in the region, the onset of an eruption could unfold with minimal warning, potentially less than 30 minutes, particularly contingent on the magma’s emergence point along the Sundhnúks crater series. During a community meeting in Grindvík on February 26, the Norwegian Meteorological Agency unveiled lava flow projections based on the latest likely eruption scenarios. These projections, devised from a steady lava emission rate of 600 cubic meters per second (21 189 cubic feet per second), outline the potential spread and width of lava after a 6-hour duration. lava flow model february 26 2024 Lava flow model – February 26, 2024. Credit: Norwegian Meteorological Agency The presented models, estimating lava flow trajectories from various potential eruption sites within the Sundhnúks crater series, presuppose an eruption fissure extending 800 m (2 625 feet). These fissures are delineated with a black line on the models. Although only a selection of scenarios were shared, the dynamics of lava flow can drastically vary, heavily dependent on the precise location of the fissure’s opening in the terrain. A minor shift in volcanic fissures could significantly broaden the scope of lava dispersion.

A bureaucratic printer jam holds up a major Biden climate rule – The Biden administration flew into last year’s international climate negotiations with a big announcement: The U.S. had finished a major climate rule aimed at slashing methane emissions from the oil and gas industry.But nearly three months later, the government still hasn’t officially printed the rule — which means the clock hasn’t started for the regulation to take effect. The printing process typically takes just a few days.The rule will finally appear in the Federal Register on March 8, the government said in a notice Friday, a day after POLITICO’s E&E News had written about the logjam. Federal officials have offered little explanation for the delay, aside from noting its size — well over 1,000 pages — and complexity.The delay had stressed out environmental and public health advocates, who still fear a broader bureaucratic bottleneck as the Biden administration hustles to roll out lengthy and ambitious policies this year with a looming threat of possible rollbacks from a second Trump administration.“I’m glad it’s happening,” Paul Billings, the national senior vice president for public policy at the American Lung Association, said after the publication was scheduled. “It certainly took a while.”

Hydrogen industry preps legal challenge to Biden tax rules -The Treasury Department’s pending tax rules for low-carbon hydrogen production could soon spark court battles.Treasury’s initial guidance in December for the tax credit known as 45V met pushback from hydrogen producers and congressional Democrats after its release. They argue the Biden administration’s plan would slow industry growth, while supporters say the standards are necessary to ensure that hydrogen fuel is made cleanly.Opponents of the 45V guidance may be emboldened to take tax rules to court if the Supreme Court upendsthe Chevron doctrine, according to experts such as Barbara De Marigny, a partner at the Baker Botts law firm. The court appears ready to limit that 40-year-old legal tool, which has helped federal agencies defend regulations in court. The hydrogen credit rules could still change after a public comment period ends Monday. But if the regulations become final this year, disappointed hydrogen producers are poised to turn to a different remedy — lawsuits. “It’s reasonable to expect that some or many of those opponents will be considering a challenge to the validity of final regulation,” said Steve Dixon, a partner at Steptoe specializing in tax controversies.Since Treasury released draft rules, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), one of the authors of the Inflation Reduction Act that created 45V in 2022, has called Treasury’s plan illegal. He has said the department’s view of its power under the Inflation Reduction Act is too broad.At one time, Treasury could have used Chevron to defend against that argument. The doctrine says courts should defer to agencies’ reasonable interpretations of ambiguous federal laws.Manchin has also vowed to join lawsuits if final rules limit eligibility for projects that use nuclear energy to make hydrogen.Some hydrogen producers have sought legal advice on potential 45V litigation, said De Marigny. Publicly, industry groups have long maintained that there are legal holes in proposed 45V guidance without committing to legal fights.Dixon said challenges would likely question whether Treasury can adopt its proposed method to account for emissions caused by hydrogen production’s use of the grid.Opponents of Treasury’s proposal say the Inflation Reduction Act gave the department clear direction to assess emissions, but that it is instead using a system allegedly outside of the law’s scope. Supporters say Treasury’s proposal to account for grid emissions is backed by the letter of the law.

Treasury’s 45V Regulation Risks Killing US Hydrogen In The Cradle – Forbes - Absent a major change of course, the US Treasury Department is poised to issue guidance on new regulations governing Inflation Reduction Act-related hydrogen incentives that few players in the industry seems to favor. The controversy revolves around a draft regulation issued in December governing implementation of expanded tax credits in Section 45V of the IRA, which President Joe Biden signed into law in September, 2022. That December draft seemed to please almost no one in the hydrogen space, not even those involved in projects to make “green” hydrogen using an electrolysis process powered by wind, solar or other zero-emission power generation. Because the making of hydrogen is such an energy-intensive process, the ability to access the full level of the 45V credit is crucial to the economics of most projects in the planning stages. As the guidance was proposed, critics claim that makers of green hydrogen would be required to source all their energy directly from wind or solar projects to ensure they would receive the full $3 per kg. credit. Projects sourcing power from a public grid would be unlikely to qualify at that level and would be forced to certify the power used had come from renewable facilities to claim even a lower level of it.Making matters even more difficult for green hydrogen projects are demands from environmentalist groups like the Sierra Club for the Treasury rule to require such projects to finance and build their own proprietary wind and/or solar installations to provide the power. Any such requirement would only compound the difficulties in planning for truly economic projects.The December guidance would be even more problematic for companies engaged in plans for plants and hubs that would produce “blue” hydrogen, i.e., hydrogen produced using natural gas as the feedstock, which currently accounts for about 95% of US-produced hydrogen today. One such planned hub, the ARCH-2 Hydrogen Hub, would be located in West Virginia, home of powerful US Senator Joe Manchin, who served as the deciding vote to pass the IRA into law, and who played a role in writing the 45V language. The development’s literature says it would utilize an array of resources from “West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky” if it does move ahead. Put simply, the plans for ARCH-2 revolve around using natural gas produced in the Appalachia region as the feedstock for its hydrogen production. Many other proposed hydrogen hubs would use a similar method involving natural gas as the feedstock.Another example is ExxonMobil’s plans to participate in developing the world’s largest clean hydrogen hub centered around its Baytown Refinery complex along the Houston Ship Channel. The hub would manufacture hydrogen using natural gas as both the feedstock and power source for the operations, and would include plans to capture and store 98% of emissions created by the project.Despite the near-zero emissions footprint, the Baytown hub would likely qualify for only a small fraction of the maximum credit. Without changes to the Treasury guidance, Mark Klewpatinond, Global Business Manager for Hydrogen at Exxon Mobil told the Houston Chronicle that the Baytown project would be unlikely to move ahead. “If we’re not able to differentiate natural gas production, it’s highly unlikely Baytown would proceed,” he said. “It needs to compete for capital against other projects we have.”Ironically, both the ARCH-2 and the Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub, of which the Baytown project would be a component, were among a list of 7 regional hubs chosen by the Biden Energy Department last October as beneficiaries of an initial tranche of $7 billion in federal grants to kickstart the US clean hydrogen industry. It’s just one of so many examples in recent years of inconsistent federal policy actions causing uncertainty and confusion in the US energy space.The guidance update to be issued Monday is an interim measure, and a Treasury spokesperson said the department will consider all input it receives in comments from stakeholders in developing a final regulation. That seems good news given the poor reception the work product has received and the concerns it has caused up to this point.

US H2Hubs: Revise 45V guidance to ensure hydrogen investments and jobs | Policy | H2 View - The US Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs (H2Hubs) selected for a combined $7bn of funding have called on the government to amend the proposed guidance on the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA’s) clean hydrogen production tax credit (PTC). In a joint letter to the Treasury Secretary and a Senior White House Advisor, leaders of the H2Hubs said the guidance on the 45V PTC may have “far-reaching negative consequences for the entire domestic clean hydrogen industry.” Under rules proposed by the Treasury in December (2023), US green hydrogen producers will have to source renewable electricity from the same regional grid, from assets that are no older than three years old at the time of hydrogen production start-up, to gain access to the 45V’s top tier $3/kg PTC.It also mandates that producers must match renewable electricity and electrolyser operation within the same calendar year until 2027, before hourly matching from 2028.In October 2023, ARCH2, ARCHES, HyVelocity, Heartland, MACH2, MachH2, and PNWH2, were been named as the successful H2Hubs that will receive a combined $7bn of funding from the Department of Energy (DOE) to create a network of production, consumption and infrastructure.Originally slated as a way to catalyse $40bn of private investments into hydrogen and create over 330,000 jobs, H2Hub leaders have now warned, those benefits will “not fully materialise” unless the Treasury’s guidance is “significantly revised.”The letter reads, “The proposed guidance poses a significant risk to the ability for the US to be global leader in the hydrogen economy.“The DOE’s own projections say we will need 10 million tonnes of hydrogen by 2030 to meet our nation’s climate goals. It is important that the final regulation [does] not disadvantage any type of clean hydrogen production by limiting it exclusively to new sources, and ensure the credit remains flexible and technology neutral.” While the so-called three pillars of additionality, geographical and hourly correlation will ensure the climate credentials of green hydrogen, vast numbers of hydrogen players have expressed dissatisfaction with the rules.Upon proposal of the guidance, coalition Hydrogen Forward described the guidance as “misguided,” adding the “restrictive and unworkable” requirements counter congressional intent and the Biden administration’s climate goals.The H2Hub leaders stressed the guidance would potentially limit the hydrogen market’s development.“Requiring overly restrictive policies on an industry that is just beginning to emerge will introduce additional risks and costs into clean hydrogen production projects, prevent achieving the Administration’s H2 Earthshot goal ($1/kg), and limit the ability to achieve hydrogen market lift-off and decarbonise our economy,” the letter said.It continued, “To accelerate technological breakthroughs that will bring down costs and increase access to clean hydrogen, we need current projects like the hubs to move forward at full capacity. We strongly urge the US Treasury Department to reconsider and revise its proposed guidance on the hydrogen PTC.“It is essential to strike a balance that encourages the growth of the clean hydrogen industry, protects jobs preserves environmental gains and fosters for disadvantages communities.” Comments on the 45V guidance closed on Monday (February 26), ahead of final publication. Sources have told H2 View the rules are expected to become statute before the November US election.

Biden administration announces $366 million for rural renewable energy projects The Department of Energy announced more than $350 million for rural renewable energy projects from the bipartisan infrastructure law funds Tuesday. On a call with reporters, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the $366 million would be allocated across 17 projects in 20 states and 30 tribal nations. Twelve of the projects are on tribal lands, according to Granholm. “These projects showcase rural and remote communities [and] innovative approaches to clean energy deployment. They span technologies, they are replicable, they’re scalable, and they include everything from building micro grids for community health centers so they never lose power for lifesaving equipment, medical equipment, to constructing a new hydroelectric facility on tribal lands that’ll offset the need for expensive diesel fuel,” she said. Wahleah Johns, the director of the department’s Office of Indian Energy Policy and Programs, emphasized the value of renewable energy to tribal lands, saying an estimated 17,000 homes in tribal communities lack access to electricity. “These projects are really significant and helping to provide more energy security for rural and remote communities,” she said. “They are encouraging that energy sovereignty that tribes hold and making sure that you know lights are on for families in different places of Indian country.” One of the selected projects, for example, will electrify 300 Native Americans’ homes for the first time, Johns said, while other projects will help offset particularly high diesel costs in Alaskan communities. White House climate adviser Ali Zaidi, meanwhile, tied the efforts to broader White House goals of halving U.S. emissions by 2030. With younger and more progressive voters skeptical of Biden ahead of the 2024 election, Zaidi in particular has repeatedly touted climate and energy progress by the Biden administration, also taking center stage after the administration announced a temporary hold on new export licenses for liquefied natural gas.

This is what happens when a wind farm comes to a coal town - Sheila Wagoner is not a fan of the wind farm overlooking Keyser, West Virginia. "I really don't care for those windmills," the 71-year-old says. "I guess I wasn't brought up with that kind of society. Like 50 of 'em together? Who likes all that?" It's not just the visual contrast that Wagoner finds bothersome. She is from one of many families in Keyser — and throughout West Virginia — that relied on the coal industry for generations. Her late father worked as a railway engineer for coal trains that used to run non-stop through Keyser. There is a popular perception in West Virginia that renewable energy has been killing the coal industry. However, that narrative is incomplete. Jobs in coal had been in decline decades before the wind turbines came to Keyser in 2012. Still, the turbines are a clear — and for some, bitter — sign that times have changed. As they slowly spin in the breeze, they stir up mixed feelings. Some residents of Keyser say coming home covered in coal dust is something to be proud of. A sign of a hard day's work. "It's part of that Appalachian Mountain thing. I think people are very proud of who they are and where they're from," says Keyser's Mayor Damon Tillman. "Energy is huge in this town and without it, we wouldn't have much." Today, the shift from fossil fuels to renewables is accelerating.In 2022, the country's first major climate policy, known as the Inflation Reduction Act, passed with the promise to speed up that transition, offering at least $4 billion to boost development of renewable projects like the Pinnacle Wind Farm in Keyser. That law passed with the key vote of West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, but Tillman is skeptical that those benefits will reach Keyser. "I like Joe. I talk to him a good bit. But the thing is a city like Keyser [doesn't] ever see any of that money," says Tillman. "That money all goes to bigger cities – Morgantown, Jefferson County, Charleston. So it doesn't do us any good."The mayor's sentiments echo what is being felt more broadly across the state, says Hoppy Kercheval. He hosts the daily radio program Talkline on West Virginia MetroNews and has been on the air for nearly 50 years. If anyone has a read on how people in this state are feeling, it's him. "Manchin [is seen as] selling out to Biden and his fellow Democrats, and politically that hurt him," says Kercheval. "But at the same time, there's all this green energy money that's coming to West Virginia and the last two years has seen more economic development announcements than I can remember in this state."

Surge in Data Center Use Lifts Domestic Utilities’ Natural Gas Projects, Spending - Utilities in the Southwest have seen business, population and technology underpinning investments in natural gas-fired generation and infrastructure, and in Texas, new legislation may be supporting plans for a build-out. NGI reviewed recent quarterly and year-end results of electric and gas utilities, in which executives pointed to growth in the customer base, as well as in data centers and manufacturing. Houston-based NRG Energy Inc., which serves more than 4.5 million electric customers and nearly 800,000 gas customers across 24 states and eight Canadian provinces, has plans to ramp up natural gas-fired generation in Texas. Last year, Texans voted to enact the Texas Energy Fund, providing “support for new dispatchable generation,” said NRG interim CEO Lawrence Coben.

U.S. Electricity Generation by Source in 2023: Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Hydro, Solar, Geothermal, Biomass, Petroleum by Wolf Richter -- The quantity of electricity generated in the US declined by 0.9% in 2023 from the record in the prior year, to 4,247,732 gigawatt-hours, according to data from the EIA today. But compared to 2007, over those 16 years, electricity generation was up only 2.3%. Power generators in aggregate had gotten mired in stagnating demand, despite the growing economy and population. A big factor was that electricity users, to reduce their costs, invested in more efficient equipment – lights, appliances, electronic equipment, industrial equipment, heating and air-conditioning, etc. – and in better building insulation, shading, etc., to reduce their costs. But in 2022, demand jumped to a record amid a big heat wave in a big part of the US, EV charging, crypto mining, etc. The chart shows the total amount of electricity generated each year by all sources, from natural gas to roof-top solar. The blue line connects 2021 and 2007: The share of total electricity generated by source: Natural gas has been hard to beat in the US, in terms of costs and flexibility for power generation. Fracking has turned the US into the biggest natural gas producer in the world, with surging exports. Production has oversupplied the US market and has caused the price of natural gas to collapse since 2009. In addition, the modern combined-cycle natural gas powerplants have a thermal efficiency of around 65%, nearly double that of older coal powerplants. The low price of natural gas and the high efficiency of the modern powerplants has caused the share of natural gas as source for power generation to increase from record to record, surpassing nuclear in 2006 and coal in 2016. In 2023, the share of electricity generated by natural gas powerplants surged to another record: 42.7% of total power generated (blue in the chart below). Coal dropped to another record low of 15.9%, in terms of its share of total power generation, down from 51% in 2001 (black in the chart below). Fracking (causing the price of natural gas to collapse since 2009), the combined-cycle gas turbine (a technical innovation from the 1990s that vastly increased the efficiency of natural gas plants), and later wind, and more recently solar knocked King Coal of its perch over the past two decades. It all boils down to costs. Gas is cheap. With renewables, the “fuel” is free; and all methods of power generation require costly plants and equipment. Coal power plants cannot compete with a combined-cycle natural gas plant and can no longer even compete with wind and solar. Power generators have not built any new coal-fired power plants over the past decade. They’re just too inefficient and expensive to operate. All renewables combined – in that order: wind, hydro, solar, geothermal, and biomass – increased their share of total power generation by a hair to 22.8% (red). Nuclear power’s share of total generation inched up to 18.3% (green). Petroleum liquids and petroleum coke have nearly vanished as source of power generation, down to 0.4% (purple). The chart below shows the quantity of electricity generated by source since 2001. “Renewables” include wind, hydro, solar including rooftop, geothermal, and biomass. More on them separately in a moment.

Texas Bitcoin Miners Score Win In Bid To Block Energy Department's Usage Data Collection Bitcoin miners have scored a win in a battle to block the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) bid to collect data on crypto miners' energy usage, as a Texas court ruled that the agency's move was likely "an abuse of discretion." Earlier this month, the EIA, which is a unit of the U.S. Energy Department, revealed plans to conduct a "mandatory survey focused on systematically evaluating the electricity consumption associated with cryptocurrency mining activity," which it said was necessary "to better inform planning decisions and educate the public."The announcement was met with much uproar among Bitcoin miners, who believe the EIA was being intrusive.Last week, top Bitcoin mining firm Riot Platforms joined hands with the Texas Blockchain Council (TBC) to sue the Department of Energy for its "unlawful so-called emergency collection of information from many of TBC's members." The complaint also said the proposed survey was "unlawfully approved" by the department's Office of Management and Budget (OBM). "This is a case about sloppy government process, contrived and self-inflicted urgency, and invasive government data collection," the complaint argued.In a recent court order by the Waco Division of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas, the court said it appreciated the EIA Administrator's willingness for full briefing on the issues presented by the plaintiffs "before any enforcement occurs." However, it found the declaration to be unsatisfactory as it "fails to bind all Defendants, does not remove the credible threat of enforcement from other defendants (or the EIA after March 25), and does not address Plaintiffs' alleged costs of compliance with the Survey."The court also found that Riot Platforms and the TBC were able to provide proof of "immediate and irreparable injury, loss, or damage" if a temporary restraining order (TRO) was not issued.

Illinois EPA must revamp its permitting process after Chicago activists file civil rights complaint - Environmental justice activists in Chicago claimed a major victory last week when the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ruled that the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency needs to revamp its process for permitting polluting industries in residential neighborhoods. The announcement comes four years after the Illinois EPA approved the move of General Iron, a scrap metal operation, to the city’s Southeast Side, a neighborhood already heavily polluted. The approval set off months of protests, a hunger strike, and the civil rights complaint filed with the federal EPA. While the resolution does not say that the agency violated any anti-discrimination laws, the agreement does compel the Illinois EPA to make sweeping changes to its air permitting process. It’s a rare victory for community groups that cite race-based discrimination when it comes to pollution, especially when working through the federal government. Óscar Sanchez is co-executive director of Southeast Environmental Task Force, a grassroots organization fighting polluting industries in the area. His organization is one of two community groups that originally filed the civil rights complaint. He called the agreement monumental. “This is something that should not be taken lightly,” Sanchez said. “But at the same time, we are also looking forward to seeing how this administration continues to do this type of work to actually improve public health.” The settlement between the U.S. EPA and the Illinois EPA includes that the agency enact expansive changes which center community input as well as the history of the company applying for the permit. This is significant, according to Gina Ramirez, Midwest regional lead of the National Resources Defense Council. “General Iron had a long history of being a really bad neighbor, a lot of EPA violations,” said Ramirez. “I mean, it even blew up right before the state issued its permit. And the fact that they weren’t considering that at all, was just like a huge red flag. So just the fact that that’s in this agreement, is a really big deal to me.”

Court dismisses appeal to block drilling and fracking under Ohio park and wildlife areas - -- An Ohio judge has dismissed environmental groups’ appeal from commission decisions to lease parts of a state park and two wildlife areas for oil and gas drilling.Judge Jaiza Page’s Feb. 23 order effectively denies the emergency stay the environmental groups had sought to stop the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission from acting on Monday to accept bids from companies to drill and frack under Salt Fork State Park, Zepernick Wildlife Area and Valley Run Wildlife Area.Starting in January, the Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission solicited bids from companies to drill and frack under the state park and wildlife areas. The commission is expected to act on bids at its Feb. 26 meeting. Judge Page’s eight-page decision agreed with the commission that the court lacks jurisdiction over the appeal. She also agreed with the commission’s argument that the groups have no standing to contest its rulings. “We are disappointed with the Court’s order. We are considering next steps with our clients,” said attorney Megan Hunter of Earthjustice, which has acted as counsel for Save Ohio Parks, the Ohio Environmental Council, the Buckeye Environmental Network and Backcountry Hunters and Anglers.Energy News Network reached out to spokespeople for the Ohio Attorney General and the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission, but they have not yet provided comments.Judge Page’s order noted the word “shall” in one part of ORC Ch. 155, suggesting the commission has a mandatory duty to lease state park lands. Yet she did not mention at all the requirement in another part of the law that says the commission “shall” consider nine factors in deciding whether to allow drilling on state-owned lands. A key part of the environmental groups’ challenge was that the commission failed to consider all nine factors the law required it to consider. Those include environmental impacts, effects on visitors or users of state-owned lands, public comments or objections, economic benefits and other considerations.The commission’s proceedings also have been clouded by the submission of hundreds of allegedly falsified pro-fracking comments. The commission announced in September that it would not consider those comments. But results of an investigation by the Ohio Attorney General’s office have not yet been announced.It’s also unclear whether the commission considered and properly weighed concerns voiced by opponents of the leasing, whose comments raised worries about possible contamination from accidents, anticipated interference with their ability to enjoy state parks and wildlife areas, and more. A separate case challenges the constitutionality of House Bill 507, the law passed by Ohio’s General Assembly late last year to kickstart the commission’s leasing process. The law also declared that natural gas is “green energy.” That case is before Judge Kimberly Cocroft.In the HB 507 case, the state argued the constitutional challenge case is moot because the commission’s adoption of leasing terms meant there was no longer any mandatory duty to allow drilling on state-owned lands.It’s unclear whether appellees will appeal Judge Page’s order or if another motion for stay will be filed. It’s also unclear when Judge Cocroft will rule.Companies submitting any winning bids accepted by the commission will need to file a permit application with the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. The agency reviews those permits fairly quickly, so drilling could start this spring.

Two out-of-state companies picked to lease parts of Ohio public land for fracking --- The Ohio Oil and Gas Land Management Commission picked the “highest and best” bidders to lease parts of a state park and two wildlife areas for fracking Monday. West Virginia-based Infinity Natural Resources had the winning bid to drill in Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County. Infinity Natural Resources — which has more than 120 wells in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia — leased two parcels at Salt Fork for $58.4 million. Texas-based company Encino Energy had the top bid for Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County and Zepernick Wildlife Area in Columbiana County. Encino leased three different parcels at Valley Run Wildlife Area for $1.05 million and leased one parcel at Zepernick Wildlife Area for $231,692. According to their website, Encino Energy is the largest oil producer and second-largest producer of gas in Ohio. Fracking is the process of injecting liquid into the ground at a high pressure to extract oil or gas. It has been documented in over 30 states, according to the Center for Biological Diversity. Monday’s meeting now paves the way for the Ohio Department of Natural Resources to lease the parcels to the companies. OGLMC committee member Matthew Warnock was the lone no vote on the bid for Salt Fork. Under state law, OGLMC must pick the “highest and best bid.” Each lease agreement includes a 12.5% royalty paid to the state for production. The total lease bonuses for ODNR properties selected by the commission amount to $59.7 million. Ohio’s OGLMC started soliciting bids from companies to drill and frack under state parks and wildlife areas on Jan. 3 and the deadline was Feb. 4. On Friday, a Franklin County Court of Commons Pleas judge denied the emergency stay environmental groups had tried to stop OGLMC from leasing parts of Ohio’s land for drilling. Terri Sabo was in tears when the commission voted to accept the Salt Fork bid. “It’s just a very sad day,” said Sabo, who has lived just outside Salt Fork for the past four decades. “My biggest immediate concern, obviously, is the loss of the park to deindustrialization. I’ve really seen it grow and come back.”All Ohioans will be directly affected by fracking, said Lorraine McCosker, steering committee member of Save Ohio Parks. “It’s going to be changing the climate even further,” she said. Monday’s meeting was “highly disappointing, but not unexpected,” said Cathy Cowan Becker, steering committee member of Save Ohio Parks. “You are selling your state parks off to the highest bidder,” she said. More than a dozen protestors were at Monday’s meeting shouting “Shame,” “Do you realize what you are doing to tourism in Ohio?” and “You are selling my land to frack” while the commission voted on the bids. Others held up signs that said “Gov. DeWine, don’t be a climate criminal” and “Fracking injects toxins into mother earth.” A handful of people dressed in sackcloth to represent drought, disease, extinction and climate chaos as part of a demonstration during the meeting. However, not everyone mourned Monday’s meeting. Ohio Oil and Gas Association President Rob Brundrett said this is a big win for Ohio. “The decisions made by the Commission were the culmination of over a decade of work by the state to ensure a fair and equitable process,” he said in an email. “Our members are committed to responsibly developing these resources in the safest and most environmentally sound manner using today’s most advanced technologies.”

Ohio Awards Drilling Contracts for State Parks – Salt Fork Surprise - Marcellus Drilling News -- Yesterday, the Ohio Oil & Gas Land Management Commission (OGLMC) met to award contracts to drill under (not on) several Ohio state parks, including the 20,000-acre Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County. Anti-fossil fuel nutters didn’t disappoint. They showed up and dressed up in burlap bags and silly hats, standing along a wall to protest against the proceeding. Fortunately, the protesters didn’t disrupt or stop the proceeding (they had been threatened with arrest if they did). The big news (for us) is that Encino Energy, which has long coveted the Salt Fork State Park property, did NOT win the contract for it! At some point, Encino pulled its proposal for Salt Fork and instead concentrated on several other parcels. The contract for Salt Fork was awarded to Infinity Natural Resources. We have the complete list of who won which contracts and how much they are paying in signing bonuses and royalties.

Gulfport Energy Drilled 2 Marcellus, 2 SCOOP, 20 Utica Wells in '23 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Gulfport Energy, the third-largest driller in the Ohio Utica Shale (by the number of wells drilled), emerged from bankruptcy in May 2021 with a new board and top management. Yesterday, Gulfport issued its fourth quarter and full-year 2023 update. Company CEO John Reinhart, who took the reigns of the company in January 2023, reported the company drilled and turned to sales 24 gross wells, which included 2 Marcellus wells, 2 SCOOP wells, and 20 wells in the Ohio Utica. The company drilled and completed its first two operated Marcellus wells in Belmont County last year, with a promise to return to Marcellus drilling in 2025.

Gulfport to keep 2024 production flat, move to more liquids-rich development - Oil & Gas Journal - Gulfport Energy Corp. plans to deliver 2024 production in line with 2023 levels with a focus on more liquids-rich development in both its Utica shale and South Central Oklahoma Oil Province (SCOOP) positions. The move comes as “the current natural gas pricing environment is challenged,” said John Reinhart, chief executive officer, in a release Feb. 27. “Building on the momentum from 2023, we plan to remain focused on further optimizing our development programs cycle times and operating costs, and we laid out a program today expected to deliver similar production year over year on 10% less capital invested,” he said. For full year 2024, the operator expects to deliver relatively flat year-over-year net production of 1,045-1,080 MMcfed (about 92% gas) on base capital expenditures of $380-420 million, including $50-60 million spend allocated to maintenance leasehold and land investment, a decrease of about 10% compared with full-year 2023. The company plans to deliver a more capital efficient program associated with longer laterals and continued cycle time improvements as well as similar net completed lateral footage compared with 2023 while turning to sales 20% fewer gross wells. This year, Gulfport expects to turn to sales 16 gross Utica wells during 2024. For SCOOP, the plan is to drill 5 gross wells and turn to sales 3 gross wells during 2024. Fourth-quarter 2023 In fourth-quarter 2023, the company had total net production of 1,063 MMcfed. The company had net income of $245.7 million and generated $155.5 million of net cash provided by operating activities and $85.4 million of adjusted free cash flow. Incurred capital expenditures, excluding discretionary acreage acquisitions, was $82.9 million.

EOG Resources “Stepping Up Activity” in Ohio Utica for 2024 - Marcellus Drilling News -- EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), owns a huge 430,000+ acres of leases in the Ohio Utica. EOG calls its position the “Ohio Utica combo play” and now considers it one of the company’s “premium plays.” EOG concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. As part of the company’s fourth quarter and full-year 2023 update, EOG said it will “step up in activity in the Ohio Utica play” in 2024. During a conference call with analysts, EOG’s COO Jeffrey Leitzell said the company would boost activity in Utica to begin operating one rig full-time.

18 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 19 – 25 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- March 1, 2024 There were 18 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the week of Feb. 19 – 25, up from 13 permits issued the prior week. Pennsylvania issued 8 new permits last week. Ohio issued 9 new permits (after issuing none the week before). West Virginia issued just 1 new permit last week. Encino Energy took the prize for the most permits issued with 9 permits, all for Carroll County, OH. Repsol had the second most permits with 5 issued for Bradford County, PA. Everyone else had a single new permit: Beech Resources (Lycoming County, PA), Chesapeake Energy (Bradford County, PA), CNX Resources (Westmoreland County, PA), and HG Energy (Lewis County, WV). BEECH RESOURCES | BRADFORD COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | CNX RESOURCES | ENCINO ENERGY | HG ENERGY | LEWIS COUNTY | LYCOMING COUNTY | REPSOL | WESTMORELAND COUNTY

Pa. 2023: NatGas Production Up 1%, Wells Drilled Lowest in 10 Yrs - Marcellus Drilling News -- Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for October through December 2023 (full copy below). There were 110 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 4Q23, a decrease of 26 wells (-19%) compared to 4Q22. However, 4Q’s spud number was up from the 102 drilled in 3Q23. Natural gas production volume was 1,939 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 4Q23, up 82 Bcf (4.4%) from 1,857 Bcf produced in 4Q22. There were two pieces of big news in this report: (1) Production for all of 2023 actually went up (now down) by 1%; (2) The total number of new wells drilled in 2023 was the lowest it has been in a decade.

Repsol Announces Plan to Spend $1 Billion on Marcellus Next 4 Yrs -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Spanish energy giant Repsol, with around 214,000 net acres of leases in the Marcellus Shale, primarily located in northeastern Pennsylvania in Bradford, Susquehanna, and Tioga counties, issued the company’s fourth quarter and full-year 2023 update last week. Among the tidbits coming to light is a statement by Repsol management that the company plans to spend €$1 billion (US$1.083 billion) in the Marcellus over the next four years. Repsol loves the Marcellus!

Advocates Push for Swift Update of Gas Pipeline Safety Rules - Pennsylvania environmental groups want to see a new rule implemented to improve the detection and repair of leaks from gas pipelines.The Keystone State has over 94,000 miles of pipelines used to transport natural gas. Rachel Meyer, Ohio River Valley field organizer with the group Moms Clean Air Force, said it’s important that the rule be finalized to improve safety and reduce climate-harming methane emissions. She added that these pipelines can leak and pose a safety risk to nearby communities. “When it leaks from pipelines, natural gas contributes to the climate crisis by releasing the potent greenhouse gas methane,” said Meyer. “Natural gas is composed primarily of methane. Methane is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide during the first 20 years it’s in the atmosphere.” Meyer pointed out that a recent analysis by the Environmental Defense Fund found gas pipelines nationwide are leaking as much as 2.6 million tons of methane each year, which has the same climate impact as nearly 50 million passenger cars being driven for a year.The industry argues new regulations would increase costs.Meyer lives in Independence Township, a rural part of Beaver County in Southwestern Pennsylvania.She said there are several gas pipelines near her home, and she said she worries about the danger from potential fires and explosions.Meyer said five years ago, the Revolution gas pipeline exploded just five miles away. It destroyed a family’s home and pets and caused damage to the community.“The pipeline explosion destroyed at least two acres of the forest and left a 30 feet wide by 25 feet deep crater in the hillside,” said Meyer. “The pipeline was estimated to be about 300 feet from the home that was completely burned.”In 2022, scientists found that, in neighborhoods of color or with lower-income residents, the average gas-leak density on local distribution pipelines was 37% higher than in predominantly white neighborhoods.

New Demands to Measure Emissions Raise Cautious Hopes in Pennsylvania Among Environmental Sleuths Who Monitor Fracking Sites -For the first time, Pennsylvania fracking companies are facing real-time scrutiny from federal and state regulators over emissions of methane and other harmful air pollutants at drilling sites and storage facilities for toxic wastewater left over from oil and gas extractions. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is requiring more robust tracking at extracting sites across the country through the use of on-site devices to measure methane leaks from wells and low-pressure sources such as wastewater storage tanks. It also announced penalties for companies found to exceed emission thresholds. In addition, Pennsylvania has launched a pilot program with CNX Resources Corp., one of the biggest oil and gas producers in the Marcellus Shale, to better gauge and understand on-site emissions from the fracking industry. Melissa Ostroff is among the environmental sleuths who has questioned emissions in rural Pennsylvania, and she remains cautious about how and when communities will benefit from any of the changes. The EPA is giving states up to two years to implement the reforms. For the past couple years, Ostroff, a policy advocate for the nonprofit Earthworks, has routinely documented plumes of invisible emissions from wells and storage tanks located on drilling sites using an optical gas imaging camera sensitive to hydrocarbons. Earthworks has filed 134 complaints about the vapors and emissions from sites in Pennsylvania, with over half of those captured by Ostroff since 2021. Ostroff, who wields a hand-held video camera comparable to what industry monitoring professionals use, has filed reports and footage with state regulators about potential leaks and breaches of emission standards from both storage tanks and the wells. “There’s something very different from seeing a well with nothing coming out of it and then putting the camera to your eye,” she said. Ostroff has led state lawmakers and local community members on tours—from vantage points that are steps or fields away from drilling sites, always on public property—to peek through her high-resolution lens. They are all startled, she said, as the invisible becomes visible. There are vapors in the air. Around the tanks, she has recorded pollution that the naked eye cannot see, drifting from vents atop the containers or seeping around the ground naked eye cannot see, drifting from vents atop the containers or seeping around the ground. While Ostroff can document potential errant discharge, she has no way to measure volumes or the vapor’s content. Still, “it was shocking,” said Gillian Graber, founder of Protect PT, an environmental organization in Pennsylvania focused on the effects of oil and gas drilling. Graber has been on several Earthworks tours, and said she has observed a well venting near her daughter’s school in Westmoreland County. “When you have the vent infrastructure near schools and parks where people are running and walking, walking their pets—this is really problematic,” she said. “There needs to be some way to capture these vented materials.” The vapors detected by Ostroff’s camera can include methane, a greenhouse gas over 80 times more effective at trapping heat in the earth’s atmosphere than carbon dioxide, and naturally occuring volatile organic compounds that come back to the surface in wastewater after drilling, including benzene. “None of it is great for the environment,” said Dave Yoxtheimer, a Penn State hydrogeologist who studies the Marcelus Shale in Pennsylvania. Wastewater emissions may adversely affect human health, too. Yoxtheimer listed a medley of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) that storage tank emissions can contain: benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene. “If you’re exposed to them over a prolonged term at a high enough concentration, I mean, these are carcinogens,” substances capable of causing cancer, he said. Late last year, the EPA unveiled enhanced standards for monitoring pollution sources and, for the first time, rules that require producers to actively search for leaks. In a major change, companies operating large sites must use sensors or other technology to monitor for emissions—both at new wells and those already in operation. Methane is the single biggest driver of climate change after CO2. Sites with just one well will be inspected using human audio, visual and olfactory monitoring approaches. In January, the agency announced penalties for violators: $900 fines on every excess ton of methane that oil and gas that companies emit annually, increasing to $1,500 in 2026 and thereafter. “This is the first time that we’ve seen a rule from the EPA that is going to regulate existing and new sources when it comes to methane” emissions, said John Rutecki, a regulatory and legislative manager with the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund. And he points out that wastewater tanks are now a target. “Getting storage vessels on there has been very important for frontline community members,” Rutecki said, and the new monitoring demands may “provide some health protections” to communities near oil and gas fields. The oil and gas industry has never conducted accurate monitoring of emissions from storage tanks, on-site reservoirs for byproducts of the drilling process. The tanks hold a highly saline liquid containing a mix of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), including naturally occurring benzene, arsenic and radium 226 and 228 dredged up during hydraulic fracturing of shale formations deep underground. Companies routinely vent the storage tanks to relieve built-up pressure, and to report their emissions, they calculate estimates based on the chemical makeup of the wastewater and the size of the tank. Some producers had not been legally required to monitor, measure or capture emissions in real time, which creates uncertainty about what floats into the air or settles on the ground near the site. Ostroff’s experience is a case in point. She records vapors from tanks and shares those videos with regulators. They are rarely moved to investigate. “They say ‘they’re allowed to vent. They have to vent. There is not an alternative.’” she said. In Pennsylvania, large tanks that are calculated to emit more than 200 tons of methane and 2.7 tons of VOCs annually must reduce their emissions by 95 percent, but tanks under those thresholds can be vented as often as a company chooses. The new EPA rule, which the Biden Administration says will also reduce the amount of VOCs emitted by the oil and gas industry, requires a 95 percent reduction in methane emissions from storage tanks that have the potential to emit more than six tons of VOCs or 20 tons of methane annually. It also requires companies, instead of venting, to capture or transform the emissions, either by rerouting them to flares, or using “vapor recovery units,” to snare fugitive methane for further processing.

EPA Allows PA Radicals to Challenge Permit for Plum Injection Well -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Penneco Environmental Solutions wants to build a second wastewater injection well in Plum Borough (Allegheny County), PA, next to an existing injection well. Penneco’s first wastewater injection well in Plum finally opened for business in mid-2021, overcoming all sorts of smears, slanders, and lawsuits by the enviro-left (see Plum Boro Injection Well in SWPA Now Open for Business!). In September 2021, Penneco announced plans to build a second wastewater injection well in Plum, located next to the first one (see 2nd Shale Wastewater Injection Well Planned for Plum Boro in SWPA). Last September, the federal EPA issued a permit to Penneco for its proposed second wastewater injection well (seeFederal EPA Approves 2nd Injection Well in Plum Borough, PA). That permit was challenged by two green groups. Even though they filed their challenge after the deadline had expired to do so, the EPA is allowing the challenge to proceed.

PA boosts plugging abandoned wells with federal money · Spotlight PA — With the help of millions of dollars in federal funding, Pennsylvania has plugged more oil and gas wells in the last year and a half than it did in the past decade. Environmental advocates say this marks enormous progress for a state that has long struggled with tens of thousands of dangerous wells that leak methane — a powerful greenhouse gas that fuels climate change — into the atmosphere. But they also caution that the unprecedented amount of money flowing into Pennsylvania may not be going toward the worst wells, and they argue the plugging project needs better oversight. Take, for example, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection’s decision to plug wells on Gerry Schimp’s McKean County land last February. Schimp didn’t ask for the wells on his property to be plugged, but the state came knocking. The wells were drilled before Schimp acquired the property, and the state was unable to determine the last known operator that would have been responsible for plugging them. Workers hired by the DEP spent about two months plugging 13 wells on the land, but Schimp said about half of the work they did was replugging already capped wellbores — the drilled holes used to extract oil or gas. “They’ve done a good job, but they’ve plugged wells that didn’t need plugging,” said Schimp, a retiree who previously worked in the oil and gas industry. Schimp’s wells were plugged as a result of a huge influx of federal funding from the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. The IIJA grants are intended to reduce the methane leakage generated by unplugged abandoned wells. These wells can also be hazardous to nearby residents, who can fall into open holes or be harmed by toxic fluids that seep into groundwater. The program is slated to dole out more than $4 billion to well plugging efforts across the country, and Pennsylvania could receive as much as $400 million over the next decade. The money is supposed to target wells that are unproductive and have owners who either can’t be located or can’t afford to plug the holes themselves. The commonwealth got its initial $25 million IIJA grant in August 2022. In the decade before receiving IIJA funds, the DEP plugged 165 wells. Since the funds arrived, it has plugged over 100, and plans to plug around 100 more over the next two years. But because of tight deadlines attached to the first batch of federal money, the DEP has focused most of its attention on quantity rather than targeting wells that are big polluters or that are dangerous to people, an agency official told Spotlight PA. Even if Pennsylvania receives the full $400 million from the federal government, the money won’t be nearly enough to plug all of Pennsylvania’s old, leaky wells. When the commonwealth first applied for federal assistance in 2021, it reported 26,908 unproductive wells whose owners couldn’t be located. Of the 26 states that applied for funding, that’s by far the most. The next highest, Ohio, estimated it had around 19,662. The real number of abandoned wells likely exceeds that number. An analysis by Spotlight PA found that since IIJA money was first disbursed in 2022, the average cost of plugging a single well has been about $100,000. That puts a nearly $3 billion price tag on the cost of plugging all of the state’s documented abandoned oil and gas wells.

CO2 Fracking Ban Passes Key NY Senate Committee | Food & Water Watch — Today, the New York State Senate Environmental Conservation committee voted to pass the CO2 Fracking Ban (A8866/S8357) out of committee. The bill, introduced late last month by Assemblymember Anna Kelles and Senator Lea Webb, now heads to the Senate floor for a vote. The bill is also awaiting an Assembly floor vote, after passing Assembly’s environment committee 21-8 on February 13. Food & Water Watch Northeast Region Director Alex Beauchamp issued the following statement: “New York’s fracking ban is here to stay. As dirty energy profiteers come knocking, we applaud the legislature’s swift response to slam the door shut on exploratory fossil fuel extraction in the Southern Tier. Now, New Yorkers look to legislative leaders and Governor Hochul to pass this crucial bill and sign it into law.” More than 90 organizations support a ban on CO2 fracking, to safeguard public health, safety, clean water and the climate. The push to ban CO2 fracking comes in the face of a dangerous proposal by a newly formed company, Southern Tier Solutions, to open hundreds of thousands of acres of the Southern Tier to fracking, and construct nearly a dozen new gas plants and pipelines.

Commissioners ban fracking in Broward County - County Commissioners unanimously banned any type of hydraulic and acid fracturing, known as “fracking”, to extract oil and gas from the ground in Broward County. The vote comes as the Florida Legislature contemplates a series of bills that would stop local governments from regulating the practice. “This is about protecting our water supply and environment,” said Commissioner Beam Furr, who brought the ordinance to the Commission for a vote. “We’re discussing a ban on fracking today and at the same time state lawmakers are discussing taking away our authority to do so. We must ban this now.” Fracking involves the pumping of huge amounts of water, sand and chemicals into the ground using extreme pressure to recover oil and gas deposits. Oil and gas companies are not currently required by federal or state law to disclose formulas used in fracking. “This is Tallahassee once again trying to take away the authority of local elected officials who represent the people who live in Broward County. This is a critical issue for us. If necessary, I’m in favor of pursuing appropriate legal remedies to enforce this ordinance,” said Bro ward County Mayor Marty Kiar. Dozens of people attended a public hearing to tell Commissioners they opposed fracking and spoke in favor of the ordinance to ban the controversial practice. An application to drill an exploratory oil well in the Florida Everglades, just west of the city of Miramar is currently under review by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection. Public and private water utilities across Broward County rely entirely upon groundwater sources, including the Biscayne and Floridan Aquifers for drinking water supplies. The Floridan Aquifer alone is the source of drinking water for ten million residents. Many of the chemicals used during the fracking process have resulted in thousands of documented cases of water contamination and adverse effects on human health and the environment in the United States.

Natural Gas Hasn’t Been This Cheap in Decades – WSJ -- The lowest inflation-adjusted prices in at least 34 years have drillers throttling down from record production An unusually warm winter and roaring U.S. output have pushed natural-gas prices to some of the lowest levels of the shale era. Adjusted for inflation, natural-gas futures recently hit their cheapest prices since trading began on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1990.

Henry Hub Spot Price Hit Lowest “Real” Level in 27 Yrs in February - Marcellus Drilling News -- The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub daily natural gas price averaged $1.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on February 20, 2024, the lowest price in inflation-adjusted dollars since “at least” 1997. In fact, when you look at the ten lowest daily Henry Hub natgas spot prices since Jan. 1, 1997, six of the ten lowest prices were in February 2024. The other four were in 2020, as the pandemic was taking hold. Amid this depressing news, there is a silver lining…

Nat-Gas Prices End Higher on Fund Short Covering Ahead of March Expiration — March Nymex natural gas (NGH24) on Monday closed +0.056 (+3.49%). Nat-gas prices on Monday posted moderate gains on some fund short covering ahead of the expiration of the March futures contract on Tuesday. The upside for nat-gas prices appears limited in the near term as the warm U.S. winter weather continues, which will curb heating demand for nat-gas and keep supplies elevated. Maxar Technologies said Monday that "record challenging warmth" will move across the Midwest into the eastern U.S. from March 2-6.Nat-gas prices have collapsed this year and posted a 3-1/2 year nearest-futures low last Tuesday as an unusually mild winter curbed heating consumption for nat-gas and pushed inventories well above average.Nat-gas prices are also under pressure from the announcement by the Freeport LNG nat-gas export terminal in Texas on January 26 that it was forced to shut down one of its three production units for a month for repairs after extreme cold in Texas damaged equipment. The closure of the unit will limit U.S. nat-gas exports and increase U.S. nat-gas inventories.Lower-48 state dry gas production Monday was 102.5 bcf/day (+2.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 78 bcf/day (-9.5% y/y), according to BNEF. LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Monday were 13.9 bcf/day (+6.2% w/w), according to BNEF.The U.S. Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 55% chance the current El Nino weather pattern will remain strong in the Northern Hemisphere through March, keeping temperatures above average and weighing on nat-gas prices. AccuWeather said El Nino will limit snowfall across Canada this season in addition to causing above-normal temperatures across North America.An increase in U.S. electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Thursday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended February 17 rose +1.8% y/y to 76,416 GWh (gigawatt hours), although cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending February 17 fell -0.2% y/y to 4,100,727 GWh.Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices as nat-gas inventories for the week ended February 16 fell -60 bcf, close to expectations of -59 bcf but a much smaller draw than the five-year average for this time of year at -168 bcf. As of February 16, nat-gas inventories were up +12.5% y/y and were +22.3% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample nat-gas supplies. In Europe, gas storage was 65% full as of February 19, above the 5-year seasonal average of 49% full for this time of year.Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending February 23 fell by -1 rig to 120 rigs, moderately above the 2-year low of 113 rigs posted September 8. Active rigs have fallen back since climbing to a 4-1/2 year high of 166 rigs in Sep 2022 from the pandemic-era record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).

US natgas futures touch 4-year lows as surplus supplies overwhelm (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rebounded after crashing to their lowest levels in nearly four years on Tuesday, as excess inventories and near-record levels of output flooded a market overwhelmed by milder temperatures. Front-month gas futures for March delivery NGc1 fell 4.4 cents to settle lower at $1.615 per million British thermal units. However, the contracts were up about 3.7% after dropping to as low as $1.511 earlier in the session, its weakest level since June 2020. Prices were pressured, as "the market fundamentally is coming out of the winter at much higher storage levels than what we had anticipated. It's been a very warm November through March, so weather-related natural gas demand is lower, which allowed for larger storage," Financial company LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has risen to an average of 105.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.1 bcfd in January, still shy of the monthly record of 106.3 bcfd in December. Last week, prices soared about 13% after Chesapeake Energy cut planned production for 2024 by roughly 30% after a recent plunge in prices. DiDona noted that prices were also finding support from hot weather in the South, "even though it's technically February, we shouldn't be talking about cooling degree days, but there are some spots in the country that have very high temperatures that could actually be looking at cooling degree demand." Summer-like temperatures ranging up to 40 degrees Fahrenheit above normal were forecast across a wide swath of the U.S. Midwest, East Coast and South, setting the stage for a second record-breaking day in a row in some spots. In Texas, temperatures were expected to top 80 degrees F (27 degrees Celsius) after hovering at about 94 degrees F (34 C) in Dallas and other cities on Monday, the National Weather Service said. Natural gas prices have plunged more than 32% so far this year, hurt by a mild winter that has left stockpiles well above normal, while output remained near record levels despite an Arctic freeze in January that briefly cut output and sent gas demand to a record high. The European benchmark wholesale gas price eased on Tuesday after posting moderate gains in the previous session, with plentiful supplies and milder weather set to sap demand. NG/EU Qatar's planned expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production could see it control nearly 25% share of theglobal marketby 2030 and squeeze out rival projects, including in the United States where President Joe Biden paused new export approvals, market experts say.

US natgas prices dip on mild weather, but posts its best week since Jan (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dipped on Friday on sufficient fuel in storage and lower heating demand, but prices marked their best week in 1-1/2 months as voluntary production curtailments are likely underway. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery fell 2.5 cents, to settle lower at $1.835 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). "It still obviously looks like weather is the primary driver - it has been very bearish," Despite the declines on Friday, natgas prices gained about 14.5% this week, the most since Jan. 12. However, "it does look like the producers are indeed scaling back. The production prints at the end of the month were noticeably lower than they had been earlier in the month," Cooper said. LSEG said gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states stood around 100.01 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) on Friday, from an average of 104 bcfd so far in February, but still short of the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in December. Last week, prices soared about 13% after Chesapeake Energy CHK.O, soon to be the biggest U.S. gas producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N, cut planned production for 2024 by roughly 30% after a recent plunge in prices. Natural gas prices logged a fourth straight monthly decline in February, pressured by a mild winter that has left stockpiles well above normal, while output remained near record levels despite an Arctic freeze in January that briefly cut output and sent gas demand to a record high. "We are still having much difficulty building a bullish case despite historically low pricing given the challenge of prices pushing higher simultaneously with a mounting storage surplus," The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday (EIA) said utilities pulled a bigger-than-expected 96 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended Feb. 23. That cut stockpiles to 2.374 trillion cubic feet (tcf), about 26.5% above the five-year average.EIA/GAS "Demand is set to taper as the end of winter approaches, but weather forecasts have colder than normal temperatures for the month ahead in March, which could power some price upside or at minimum prevent further declines," LSEG estimated 12 cooling degree days (CDDs) for the week as of Friday, compared with 11 CDDs on Thursday. Market participants also looked out for any impact from the wildfire raging across the Texas panhandle. Dubbed the Smokehouse Creek Fire and officially the largest on record for the state, the fire has doubled in size since earlier this week and burned through an area larger than the state of Rhode Island. Meanwhile, low natural gas prices will hurt Tellurian Inc's ability to sell Louisiana gas producing properties in order to pay off enough debt to salvage its liquefied natural gas export (LNG) project, analysts said.

JP Morgan, Standard Chartered Reveal Latest Henry Hub Price Forecasts -J.P. Morgan and Standard Chartered outlined their latest Henry Hub gas price forecasts in reports sent to Rigzone recently. According to J.P. Morgan’s report, the company sees the U.S. Natural Gas Henry Hub price averaging $2.93 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2024 and $4.75 per MMBtu in 2025. J.P Morgan expects the commodity to average $2.45 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2024, $2.25 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $3.00 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $4.00 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, the report showed. The company projects that the Henry Hub price will average $4.75 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $4.50 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $4.75 per MMBtu in the third quarter, and $5.00 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter of next year, according to the report, which outlined that the commodity averaged $2.99 per MMBtu in 2023. In its report, Standard Chartered revealed that it sees the NYMEX basis Henry Hub nearby future price averaging $4.80 per MMBtu in the first and second quarters of 2024, and $4.70 per MMBtu in the third and fourth quarters of this year. The company projected in the report that the commodity will average $4.80 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $4.70 per MMBtu in the second quarter of next year, and $4.80 per MMBtu overall in 2025. Standard Chartered also highlighted in its report that the NYMEX basis Henry Hub nearby future price closed at $1.57 per MMBtu on February 20. In its February STEO, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast that the Henry Hub spot price will average $2.67 per MMBtu in the first quarter of this year, $2.20 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $2.66 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.08 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, and $2.65 per MMBtu overall in 2024. The EIA’s February STEO forecast that the commodity will average $2.95 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $2.64 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $2.98 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.20 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, and $2.94 per MMBtu overall in 2025. This STEO showed that the Henry Hub spot price averaged $2.54 per MMBtu in 2023. In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot price would come in at $2.64 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2024, $2.22 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $2.68 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.10 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, and $2.66 per MMBtu overall in 2024. That STEO projected that the commodity would average $2.93 per MMBtu in the first quarter of 2025, $2.64 per MMBtu in the second quarter, $2.99 per MMBtu in the third quarter, $3.22 per MMBtu in the fourth quarter, and $2.95 per MMBtu overall in 2025.

US weekly LNG exports reach 26 cargoes - US liquefaction plants shipped 26 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the week ending February 21, while natural gas deliveries to these terminals decreased compared to the week before. The US EIA said in its weekly natural gas report that 26 LNG carriers departed the US plants between February 15 and February 21, the same as in the week before. Citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, the agency said the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 97 Bcf. Natural gas deliveries to US terminals down 1.4 percent Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals decreased by 1.9 percent (0.3 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.6 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 4.5 percent (0.4 Bcf/d), to 8.7 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased by 4.6 percent (0.2 Bcf/d) to average 3.5 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside of the U.S. Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged week over week at 1.2 Bcf/d. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped nine cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the week under review. Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal shipped four cargoes while Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal and the Freeport LNG terminal each shipped three cargoes during the period. Also, the Elba Island terminal sent two LNG cargoes and the Cove Point LNG terminal shipped one cargo, the agency said. H This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 9 cents from $1.51 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.60/MMBtu this Wednesday. The price of the March 2024 NYMEX contract increased 16.4 cents, from $1.609/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.773/MMBtu this Wednesday.

This report puts a price tag on the climate impacts of US LNG exports -In late January, the Biden administration announced that it was pausing new approvals for liquefied natural gas export terminals until it can reassess its review process. That decision hinges on a key question: Is continuing to expand the country’s already massive fossil-gas export capacity in the ​“public interest?” To answer that, the administration will likely try to determine the cost in dollars and cents of two main impacts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports: their effect on domestic energy prices and their contribution to climate change.These are tricky equations for the U.S. Department of Energy to solve as it undertakes the review the Biden administration has ordered. DOE hasn’t yet publicly discussed the methodology or process it plans to use to make these determinations.But amid much uncertainty and many contested claims over the issue, one thing appears clear, according to a recent report from the Institute for Policy Integrity at New York University School of Law: The assessments that have guided U.S. LNG export authorizations over the past half-decade of the industry’s startling growth are not capturing the full scope of climate harms those exports are causing — or the economic harms those emissions will create in the country or around the world. The report uses data from DOE’s previously published studies — the same ones that environmentalists say have failed to consider the broader economic and climate impacts ofLNG export terminals to date — to determine that the ​“climate costs” of expanding LNG exports ​“likely exceed economic benefits.”And these findings aren’t based on a novel methodology for calculating benefits and harms of the LNG industry, said Max Sarinsky, the report’s co-author, a senior attorney at the Institute for Policy Integrity and an adjunct clinical professor at New York University School of Law. Instead, ​“we just took DOE’s existing analyses and had them talk to each other,” he explained. ​“Because our analysis draws heavily from the DOE’s own work, including data, models and methods, it could be particularly useful for DOE’s purposes” of reassessing whether expanding U.S. LNG export capacity is in the public interest. The new report draws from two DOE analyses. The first is a 2018 study of the economic impacts of LNG exports. It found that increasing LNG exports would drive up domestic fossil-gas prices but would also increase the domestic revenue of the companies involved, which in turn would benefit American consumers and outweigh the negative effect of more expensive utility bills. This finding has remained part of DOE’s current process for reviewing LNG exports that will now be reevaluated. The second analysis is an environmental assessment prepared by DOE in 2022 on the life-cycle emissions of producing gas and shipping it from Alaska to Japan, South Korea, China and India. That study represents an updated analysis of a similar study conducted in 2019 of the life-cycle greenhouse gas impacts of U.S. LNG being used to replace coal-fired power or Russian fossil gas in Europe and Asia. It found that U.S. LNG would yield lower carbon emissions than those alternatives, a conclusion that now guides DOE determinations on LNG exports. “Then we just compared the climate costs and the economic benefits,” Sarinsky said. ​“And we find the climate cost is substantially higher than the economic benefit.” Even under the most conservative assumptions about the economic harms of increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the new report finds that the climate costs of gas exports are nearly twice as high as their benefits for consumers. In the worst case, those costs are nearly 19 times higher than the benefits. These findings are durable even when considering all the uncertainties around forecasting the economic and environmental impacts of increasing the supply of LNG on international markets, the report states. ​“While the precise difference depends on several factors — including the share of gas production that merely displaces fossil-fuel production from other sources, the economic value assigned to climate damages and the adoption of carbon-capture technology — gross climate damages greatly exceed economic benefits under all scenarios evaluated.”

Major Energy Trade Associations Challenge Legality of DOE’s LNG Export Pause - One of the U.S. oil and natural gas industry’s largest trade groups is pushing the Department of Energy (DOE) to reverse a pause on new LNG export licenses as the possibility of intervention from Congress slims. The American Petroleum Institute (API) and other groups representing the liquefied natural gas industry have filed a request for rehearing of the decision announced by the Biden administration in January. At the time, the administration said the DOE would halt considerations for non-Free Trade Agreement (FTA) permits while it reviewed its policies for determining whether a project is in the public interest. In its filing, API called the action “arbitrary and capricious” and in violation of the DOE’s authority under the U.S. Natural Gas Act (NGA).

Tellurian amends debt terms to support sale of its upstream assets - Tellurian amends debt terms to support sale of its upstream assets Driftwood LNG site (Image: Tellurian) US LNG firm Tellurian, the developer of the Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana, said it had signed a deal to amend the terms of certain debt instruments in order to boost near-term liquidity and provide the company with flexibility to complete the sale of its upstream assets. Among other items, the amendment provisions include a reduction in Tellurian’s minimum cash balance requirement and the ability for the company to make its upcoming interest payments in-kind, according to a statement by Tellurian. The firm said in a separate SEC filling that it has entered into a letter agreement with an institutional investor providing for, among other things, amendments to the indentures governing its 10.00% senior secured notes due 2025 and its 6.00% secured convertible notes due 2025 previously issued to the investor. The deal allows Tellurian to reduce its minimum liquidity requirement from $40 million to $25 million from February to through and including April 30, 2024. Also, Tellurian agreed to provide a “non-recourse pledge of all of its equity interests in Driftwood LNG Holdings and a certain intercompany note to secure the obligations under the indentures governing the notes.” CEO Octavio Simoes said this amendment to “our debt agreement is pivotal towards establishing a sustainable capital structure and accelerating our strategic priority, Driftwood LNG.” “It also provides us the time and flexibility to complete the sale of our upstream assets in a manner that maximizes value for our shareholders while we maintain our focus on the intensive negotiations associated with the commercialization of Driftwood LNG,” he said. Earlier this month, Tellurian said it is exploring the sale of its Haynesville upstream assets as it works on securing financing for the first phase of its Driftwood LNG project worth about $14.5 billion. Under the first phase, Tellurian aims to build two LNG plants near Lake Charles with an export capacity of up to 11 mtpa. However, the company is still working to secure financing for the project. Tellurian issued a limited notice to proceed to compatriot engineering and construction giant Bechtel in March 2022 and it said in August last year that Bechtel completed piling work for the first plant and also concrete pouring for all plant one compressor foundations. The firm recently also secured more time from the US FERC to complete the construction of its Driftwood LNG project. FERC said in a filling dated February 15 that both Driftwood LNG and the connecting pipeline have been granted an extension of time, until April 18, 2029.

Pembina Inks NGL Pact, Delays LNG Project Decision - Calgary-based Pembina Pipeline Corp. has secured an agreement to supply natural gas liquids (NGL) for Dow Chemical Co. and is advancing LNG pipeline expansion projects that could provide multiple opportunities and more growth following a strong year. In support of Dow’s Fort Saskatchewan Path2Zero expansion project in Canada, Pembina entered into long-term agreements to supply up to 50,000 b/d of ethane. “Given Pembina’s existing leading ethane supply and transportation business and integrated value chain, there are multiple opportunities for the company to benefit from this new development through both the existing asset base and new investment opportunities,” CEO Scott Burrows said during a recent earnings call. Dow announced plans in November to build an ethylene...

Venture Global Fighting Disclosure on Contracts, Awaiting FERC Reply on Calcasieu Pass Deadline - Long-term offtakers of Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Calcasieu Pass terminal in Louisiana are again pressing FERC to make the export project developer provide information about the facility, this time targeting a request to extend the commissioning process. Earlier this month, Venture asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to extend the deadline for its 10 million metric tons/year (mmty) liquefied natural gas terminal to reach full operations by a year. The first commissioning cargo was loaded from the facility in early 2022, making it the fastest U.S. project to go from a final investment decision to first liquefaction. However, numerous issues with its equipment have been reported, mostly centered around its heat recovery steam generators for liquefaction blocks seven...

Sempra Looking Beyond LNG Pause to ‘Development Milestones’ for Port Arthur, Cameron Expansions - While U.S. LNG developers navigate the fallout of a pause in new worldwide liquefied natural gas export authorizations, Sempra Infrastructure executives said they were still focusing on the best prices and partnerships, rather than permitting timelines. The LNG and Mexico infrastructure arm of San Diego-based Sempra is currently in the early phases of construction on the 13 million metric tons/year (mmty) Port Arthur LNG project in Texas and nearing completion of Energia Costa Azul (ECA) LNG in Mexico. The Biden administration’s decision to halt new non-Free Trade Agreement permit decisions for an indefinite period doesn’t impact the progress of those projects, but does potentially cloud the timeline of Sempra’s proposed expansions, including the second phase of Port Arthur...

Freeport LNG Outage Set to Erase 40 Bcf of Feed Gas Demand as Repairs Extended - Freeport LNG Development LP’s two-week delay to finish repairs to a third train at its export terminal on the Texas coast is set to extend lower gas flows to two months, pushing the restart to mid-March. Feed gas flows to the liquefied natural gas export facility began to drop on Jan. 14 as a winter storm swept across the country, according to NGI’s U.S. LNG Export Tracker. The storm damaged an electrical motor. A spokesperson told NGI that it was extending the work by two weeks. This update came exactly a month after the terminal said it expected the unit to be down for at least one month. Prior to the outage, gas flows were topping out around 2 Bcf/d. Flows since have averaged 0.65 Bcf/d below that level through February. If the outage were to extend into mid-March,...

Devon ‘Optimistic’ About Future of Natural Gas, but Staying ‘As Oily as We Can’ for Now - Though it is a major producer of U.S. natural gas, oil economics will dictate investment decisions for Devon Energy Corp. for the foreseeable future, management indicated Wednesday. Oklahoma City-based Devon is the 16th largest producer of natural gas among U.S. publicly traded firms, according to NGI’s most recent calculations. It operates primarily in the Permian Basin’s Delaware sub-basin, the Anadarko and Williston basins, and the Eagle Ford Shale. “We want to stay as oily as we can for as long as we can,” CEO Rick Muncrief told analysts during a call to discuss fourth quarter earnings. Muncrief cited low U.S. natural gas prices that have languished below $2/MMBtu since early February. “That’s not a good spot to be in. And so for us, we want to stay as oily as we can" ...

CFE Looking to Develop Texas Natural Gas Storage as Mexico Import Needs Mount - Spotlight - Mexico’s Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) wants to develop natural gas storage in South Texas in time for new industrial projects in Mexico that would require stable and increased shipments from the United States. CFE’s international marketing arm, CFE International, has issued a request for proposals (RFP) from interested parties. The RFP is seeking proposals from national or international companies “experienced in developing and operating natural gas storage facilities, for the development of a new natural gas storage facility in the South Texas region.” Management called it “essential to enhance energy security and efficiency in the operation of the Mexican electrical system.” The service period would be for 20 years. Minimum gas capacity would be...

Altamira LNG Could Ship First U.S. Natural Gas Cargo from Mexico in April - New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) anticipates its offshore Altamira Floating LNG unit could become the first operating Mexican export facility in the coming weeks. After delays that stretched the commissioning process, CEO Wes Edens told analysts during a fourth quarter call that the first volumes of liquefied natural gas were expected to be produced in the coming days, followed by its first cargo loading sometime in April. “While it’s been a little bit delayed, it’s important to note that it still would be the fastest LNG installation in the history of the planet,” Edens said.

Biden Moves to Restore FERC to Five in Nominating Two Democrats, One Republican to Panel - President Biden has nominated two Democrats and one Republican to join FERC, which has been perilously short-handed for months. By statute, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is to be composed of five people, with no more than three from the same political party. Only three people are serving FERC today, led by Chair Willie Phillips, a Democrat who was nominated to lead the Commission in February. Allison Clements, another Democrat, is planning to leave the Commission in June. Republican Commissioner Mark C. Christie was nominated by President Trump. To ensure FERC can operate, the White House has nominated Democrats Judy Chang and David Rosner. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky nominated Republican Lindsay S. See. Chang, an energy economics and policy...

Call to regulate 3 million miles of U.S. natural gas pipelines - One Utah public lands advocate is standing behind the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration's proposed rule which aims to improve oversight and reduce pollution from the nation's three million miles of U.S. natural gas pipelines.Ashley Korenblat is the managing director for Public Lands Solutions. She said the rule is critical to "move the needle," in an effort to slow climate change, and contends it would play a significant role in what she called "rural public land communities," in the Beehive State."The leaks reduce the amount of gas collected and thus lower royalty payments which many counties depend on," said Korenblat. "So that is a problem. The leaks also damage air quality near important recreation assets like national parks, bike trails, climbing areas and other public lands that are economic drivers for rural communities." Korenblat said companies are moving to states like Utah in search of a better quality of life, but adds that poor air quality in oil dependent communities damages their future of economic prosperity.Korenblat encouraged operators to look at the benefits of policy action which would help slow the rate of climate change, protect public health, create jobs and prevent wasting energy.Some in the industry argue new methane leak regulations would cost too much.Korenblat said in 2019, fossil fuel producers in Utah wasted an estimated 16 billion cubic feet of natural gas, 87% coming from leaks. She said the problem results from an industry that tolerates leakage."There are technologies to detect and better monitor and better contain the gas," said Korenblat. "All of these technologies and this work would actually create jobs in oil field communities, but the operators are not that interested in making the investment unless this rule comes into play."Korenblat said larger operators do have the profits to invest in newer technologies, but should do more to support smaller operations.She contended no progress will be made unless the rule is finalized - which is why she and others are calling on Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg to take action.

Worker awarded $30 million in Larimer fracking explosion -- A neurophysiologist compared the fracking tank explosion — which blew Steven Straughen nearly 30 feet away one night in 2019 — to an IED explosion that soldiers see in battle. The explosion at the Simpson Pad 26 oil and gas production site on Dec. 12 that year would forever alter the life of Straughen, an Air Force veteran. After 14 surgeries and the loss of his right foot, Straughen was awarded $30 million in a U.S. District Court case, as part of a personal injury lawsuit against the company that created the tanks. Due to a Colorado law put in to place in 1986, Straughen will only see around half of the awarded amount, with over $14 million being capped under the limitations on damages for non-economic loss or injury. And now Straughen's lawyer is considering a ballot measure to get rid of the cap.Straughen, an Idaho native, joined the Air Force directly out of high school with the intention of becoming a nuclear weapons technician. While he waited a year for nuclear clearance, he volunteered with the Marines, traveling to Fallujah, where he experienced combat. He was shot nine times, with six bullets striking his Kevlar vest and three going through his arm. He was back in the field a week later.Straughen eventually left the Air Force after six years and joined the oil and gas industry, quickly climbing the ranks to a senior site supervisor position."I kind of grew up with the idea of you’re responsible for yourself and you’re never going to get anywhere if you don’t do it yourself. You have to work hard. Oil and gas very much fit into that hard work mentality," Straughen said in an interview with The Gazette. "It was the closest thing to going back to combat, but without having to pull the trigger. You had to be really good and on your game to stay safe.”

Effort to End Colorado Natural Gas and Oil Development Going Nowhere, Says Civitas CEO - Another attempt to phase out natural gas and oil drilling in Colorado is ramping up, but it’s unlikely to advance, Civitas Resources Inc. CEO Christopher Doyle said Wednesday. Doyle helmed a conference call with analysts to discuss fourth quarter results and the outlook for 2024. Most of the discussion centered on the Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin in Colorado, as well as the recently acquired assets in the Permian Basin. However, talk turned to whether the latest attempt to end natural gas and oil development in the state could succeed. Colorado is one of the nation’s top producing states. Democratic state Sens. Sonya Jaquez Lewis and Kevin Priola earlier in February advanced legislation that could require new drilling permits to be phased out beginning in 2030.

Oneok Capitalizing on Flood of Bakken Natural Gas - Rising gas-to-oil ratios (GOR) and a mandate to stamp out flaring in the Bakken Shale mean opportunity for the Williston Basin’s leading natural gas processor, Oneok Inc., management said Tuesday. During a call with analysts to discuss the midstreamer’s fourth quarter 2023 earnings, CEO Pierce Norton II and his executive team highlighted that GORs in the Williston have risen by about 90% since 2016, while statewide flaring in North Dakota fell from 36% of gas production in 2014 to around 5% as of December 2023. All of that captured gas needs to be processed and transported, which bodes well for a company like Oneok.

‘Stable’ Natural Gas Still Seen Critical to California Energy Mix Despite Hydro Power Rebound - As California utilities prepare their systems for upcoming summer demand, hydro-electric generation and other renewable resources remain important tools in the state’s energy resource toolbox. However, natural gas is crucial to the stabilization of the power grid, particularly during extreme events, according to state regulators. The California Energy Commission (CEC) is anticipating more robust hydro generation this spring and summer thanks to wetter weather, agency staff told NGI. Still, CEC expects natural gas to be counted on throughout the summer season as renewable energy output fluctuates. California continues to transition away from fossil fuels. Nongreenhouse gas and renewable resources have eaten away at the share of the market once significantly belonging to natural gas...

U.S. oil and natural gas production hits record highs - Despite a 4.6% reduction in U.S. drilling activity on an average yearly basis, U.S. crude production climbed to an all-time high of 12.93 MMbopd in 2023, an 8.8% increase compared to the 11.88 MMbopd average of 2022. The increased output was augmented by U.S. operators completing a large backlog of DUCs in three major oil shale plays. WTI started 2023 at $78.12/bbl, then climbed steadily throughout the year, due to restricted Russian supply caused by the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and OPEC+ production cuts. WTI crude prices hit a yearly high in September 2023 at $89.43/bbl, before falling back down to $71.90/bbl in December. As noted, U.S. oil production increased during 2023, with noticeable gains in New Mexico, up 16% to average 1.82 MMbopd (+251,700 bopd), North Dakota, up 12% to 1.19 MMbopd (+129,600 bopd), Texas up 8.6% to 5.86 MMbopd (+464,000 bopd) and Louisiana (including federal waters), which jumped 8.4% to 1.62 MMbopd (+126,200 bopd) as renewed activity in the GOM started to come on-line. The inverse correlation, i.e. a reduction in drilling activity but higher crude output, is due to improved efficiencies in U.S. shale operations and companies completing wells in their extensive DUC inventory in North Dakota, New Mexico and Texas. In the Bakken region, operators completed 208 mothballed wells (-39%), while the Eagle Ford play saw a reduction of 156 archived wellbores (-31%), both on a y-o-y basis. Operators working the Permian basin reduced the number of temporarily abandoned boreholes by 22%, completing 239 wells. . Despite Colorado’s multiple green initiatives, crude output jumped 5.2% in 2023, increasing to 454,300 bopd, while Wyoming posted a 6.7% gain, up to 265,700 bopd, 16,600 bopd more than reported in 2022. In California, waning drilling activity, which first started in 2015, continues to negatively impact the state’s production, which dropped to 315,600 bopd in 2023, a decline of 7.9% after a 7.3% drop in 2022. A 21.4% increase in Utah pushed that state up to 153,400 bopd, 27,000 bopd more than averaged in 2022. Production in Alaska declined 2.8% in 2023, down to 425,500 bopd, after averaging 437,500 bopd in 2022. In the Mid-continent, production in Oklahoma was up 3.8%, with several operators completing high-flow oil wells in the state’s SCOOP and STACK plays. These highly commercial producers pushed the state’s output to 430,800 bopd, up from 415,100 bopd in 2022. Despite virtually no shale activity, operators working in Kansas managed to maintain crude production at 75,300 bopd in 2023, a 3.1% reduction in output. Drilling and footage in Kansas should be up 18% and 16%, respectively, with 90% of the new wells (1,200) targeting oil. In Ohio, which produces more liquids than its neighbors, the number of new drilling permits issued to companies exploring the Utica shale increased substantially in 2023, compared to the previous two years. The increased activity drove production in the state up a whopping 39.9% in 2023 to 84,200 bopd after a 22% gain in 2022 (60,200 bopd), making the Buckeye state the largest oil producer in the Appalachia region, 60% more output than West Virginia (52,700 bopd). Henry Hub spot prices averaged just $2.54/MMBtu in 2023, 60% less than in 2022 ($6.42/MMbtu) due to excessive casing head gas from U.S. shale fields. Even robust LNG exports to Europe could not help lift depressed commodity prices. Prices peaked at $3.27/MMbtu in January before plummeting to $2.15/MMBtu in May before recovering to $2.52/MMbtu in December. EIA predicts the annual average U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot price will remain under $3.00/MMBtu in 2024 and 2025. Record natural gas production and storage inventories mean that natural gas prices are less than half the relatively high annual average price in 2022. EIA forecasts HH spot prices to average $2.70/MMBtu in 2024. The agency expects HH price to climb to $2.90/MMBtu in 2025, as LNG exports increase. The EIA predicts U.S. dry natural gas production will grow between 1% and 2% or 1.5 Bcfd in 2024 and 1.3 Bcfd in 2025, down from growth of 4.0 Bcfd in 2023. The slowing growth reflects a drop in natural gas production associated with oil output in the Permian basin. U.S. natural gas production should reach 105 Bcfd in 2024 and 106 Bcfd in 2025—both would be record highs. EIA estimates that the U.S. began 2024 with 14% more natural gas in storage than the previous five-year average. Although demand growth is forecast to outpace supply growth by 0.7 Bcfd this year, inventories will remain high enough to limit significant upward pressure on prices. EIA expects U.S. LNG gross exports to rise 5% in 2024 to 12.4 Bcfd, up from 11.8 Bcfd in 2023.

Oil and gas profits triple under Joe Biden even as industry decries him - Profits for the biggest US oil and gas producers have almost tripled under President Joe Biden, even as the industry berates his administration’s “hostile” policies and warns that a second term would be “disastrous” for the sector. The country’s top-10 listed operators by value, which will finish reporting their 2023 earnings this week, are on track to have amassed combined net income of $313bn in the first three years of theBiden administration, up from $112bn during the same period under Donald Trump.The collective market capitalisation of the group — comprising ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, EOG, Pioneer Natural Resources, Occidental Petroleum, Hess, Devon Energy, Diamondback Energy and Coterra Energy — jumped 132 per cent over the period to more than $1.1tn, compared with a 12 per cent drop in Trump’s first three years. Their 2023 profit figures are based on earnings reports except for Devon, due to release fourth-quarter results on Tuesday, whose latest quarterly profit figures are consensus estimates.US production has smashed records in recent years: in November, oil output hit an unprecedented 13.3mn barrels a day, while natural gas topped 105bn cubic feet a day for the first time. The nation overtook Qatar to become the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world last year.The outperformance under Biden underlines the limited role of the White House in dictating the sector’s fortunes. The recent profit bonanza was driven in part by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which pushed up oil and gas prices. A strong rebound in global energy demand from the depths of the Covid-19 shock in 2020 also supported prices. West Texas Intermediate, the US crude benchmark, averaged about $80 a barrel during Biden’s first three years compared with $58/b in Trump’s. It also flies in the face of Republican arguments that the Biden administration has suffocated the industry and dire warnings that a Democratic victory in November’s presidential election would put American energy security at risk. “Since his first day in office, President Biden has targeted our domestic energy producers and actively undermined America’s efforts to be energy independent,” said Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson this month. Biden campaigned on the most ambitious climate platform of any US president in history, vowing to lead a “transition from oil”. On taking office he implemented a suite of policies that enraged the industry — from temporarily suspending new leasing for fossil fuel development on public lands to scuppering the Keystone XL pipeline. During his time in office, however, he has dialled back some of that initial rhetoric, urging the industry to drill more to counter high prices at the pump and encouraging liquefied natural gas exports to stem an energy crisis in Europe. “To quell inflation, Biden has supported record production to keep oil and gas prices down, even while favouring greater gas exports to help the EU,” said Paul Bledsoe, a lecturer at American University and former climate adviser to the Bill Clinton administration. “You can’t do better than that from a Democratic president.” Yet the Biden campaign has been reluctant to tout the industry’s success for fear of blowback from the progressive wing of the Democratic party and has been quick to criticise operators. Mike Sommers, chief executive of the American Petroleum Institute, said oil and gas producers’ success over the past three years had occurred in spite of the president’s “hostile” policy agenda, which would undermine the nation’s energy security if left unchecked. “While you’re not seeing an impact right now, they are sowing the seeds I think for decreased production into the future. Every week we’re seeing another regulation under this administration that I think could be very detrimental,” said Sommers. This month API sued the Biden administration over its decision to restrict offshore leasing, highlighting a growing industry backlash against its climate and energy policies. Trump and his proxies have made support for the oil and gas industry a core part of his re-election campaign, arguing the sector’s recent success is bedded in the deregulatory agenda of the previous administration. “We know profits trail policy. The energy industry is reaping the benefits of the Trump administration,” said Carla Sands, a prominent Trump donor and former ambassador to Denmark. In reality, analysts said, incumbent presidents have little impact over the short-term performance of the industry. “I think that the consequences of an election in the United States for energy and climate policy are likely to be overstated and overblown.”

Canada Officials See American LNG Export Freeze as ‘An Opportunity for Us’ - for competing projects in Canada to gain ground after years of lagging behind. Canadian officials this month have been playing up their lower emission bonafides in the wake of their southern neighbor’s pause on licenses, in a bid to push for Canada’s liquefied natural gas export projects that have long been stymied by the hurdles of building in remote, rugged areas and the competing economics of abundant U.S. gas supply. “I note, with interest, that the Americans have said that they might be pausing on their LNG export,” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said on Bloomberg TV earlier this month. “I look at that as an opportunity for us. If we can be an additional supplier to the world of...

Husky Oil Sentencing April 26 for Involvement in Major Offshore Oil Spill - Husky Oil is facing fines of $2.5 million in connection with the largest oil spill in this province’s history. That was the joint recommendation by the Crown and company in provincial court yesterday. It took less than three hours for 250,000 litres to spill into the Atlantic Ocean in November of 2018. It happened when an underwater flow line became disconnected due to a series of technical issues near the SeaRose FPSO. And while a lawyer for Husky insisted that couldn’t have been foreseen, he acknowledged there were missteps following signs of a problem. Namely, a premature re-start of production, and less-than-thorough checks of the ocean surface for any signs of a spill. The Atlantic VP of Cenovus—which has since acquired Husky—looked on as a company lawyer pled guilty to three charges in exchange for three others being withdrawn. The parties landed on a $2.5 million fine, most of it involving offences under the Migratory Birds Act, with proceeds going toward an environmental fund. A total of 17 oiled birds were spotted near the spill, with seven captured. Two of them were released, two were dead, while the other three either died or were put down. As for the ocean, rough weather prevented an immediate clean up, and within two days the spill had dispersed and nothing could be recovered.. The judge will take some time to decide whether to accept the proposed fine or impose her own.

Oil spill spreads across Caribbean from Tobago to Bonaire --Oil leaking from a capsized barge off the coast of Tobago has spread hundreds of miles to reach the Caribbean island of Bonaire. Officials on Bonaire, which is located 50 miles (80km) north of the Venezuelan coast, said the oil posed a "serious threat to both humans and nature". The island is the latest to have been contaminated with oil from the barge which ran aground earlier this month. It is still unclear who owns the barge and what may have caused it to sink. The authorities on Bonaire, which is a special municipality of the Netherlands, said the island's east coast, including Sorobon, Lac and Lagun, had been polluted. They also warned that the island's mangrove, fish and coral ecosystems were at risk. The oil leak was first spotted by the Trinidad and Tobago Coast Guard on 7 February. They traced it to a barge which had become lodged on a reef about 150m (500 ft) off Tobago's southern coast. There was no crew on board the barge and the Coast Guard said it had not received any distress signals. They did, however, spot the name "Gulfstream" painted on the side of the vessel. Trinidad and Tobago authorities said the barge had originated in Panama and had been towed by a tugboat. They said it appeared "to have been bound for Guyana".

Atlantic LNG freight rates drop below $50,000 per day, European prices down - Atlantic spot LNG freight rates dropped below $50,000 per day this week, while European and Asian prices also decreased compared to the week before. Last week, charter rates were almost flat after they rose in the week before for the first time since mid-November 2023. “The Spark30S Atlantic spot 174,000 cbm 2 Stroke LNG freight rate fell to the lowest level in 8 months, falling $4,750 this week to close at $49,750 per day as the spot fixing window moves into the seasonally softer Q2 period,” Henry Bennett, Spark’s COO, told LNG Prime on Friday. He said the Spark25S Pacific spot rate was almost unchanged on the week at $58,250 per day. Atlantic LNG freight rate drops below $50,000 per day, European prices down Image: Spark LNG carriers are still avoiding the Suez Canal due to the situation in the Red Sea. Since January, LNG carriers, including Qatari vessels delivering LNG shipments to Europe, are favoring the Cape of Good Hope for safer passage. Kpler said previously that the Suez Canal has witnessed no LNG transits since January 17. On the other hand, due to a drought situation impacting the Panama Canal, LNG transits through the waterway keep declining. Official data shows that LNG transits dropped to 326 in fiscal 2023 from 374 in 2022 and 537 in 2021. European and Asian prices decline In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month dropped compared to the last week. The NWE DES LNG for March delivery was assessed last week at $7.339/MMBtu and at a $0.535/MMBtu discount to the TTF. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price is hovering just above the low from June 2023 and is sitting at $6.858/MMBtu, down $0.481 week on week,” Bennet said.

Ongoing Freeport LNG Outage Helps Lift European Natural Gas Prices – LNG Recap - Freeport LNG Development LP said Tuesday the third train at its export facility on the upper Texas coast would be offline for another two weeks, extending a month-long outage and providing support for European natural gas prices. Spokesperson Heather Browne told NGI on Tuesday that the company is working to finish motor repair work after freezing temperatures in January caused electrical issues and knocked the train offline. At the time, Freeport said it expected the unit to be down for at least one month. The news reversed declines seen earlier in the day for European benchmark Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices. The April contract finished Tuesday 2% higher and held onto gains made Monday. However, weak global gas fundamentals have TTF trading below $8/MMBtu at prices not seen since 2020...

Denmark closes probe into Nord Stream blasts saying there's not enough grounds for a criminal case (AP) — Denmark on Monday joined Sweden in closing its investigation into the 2022 explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines, with authorities saying they concluded there was deliberate sabotage but "not the sufficient grounds" to pursue a criminal case. Danish authorities said the probe “has been both complex and comprehensive." Copenhagen police, which carried out the investigation jointly with the Danish security service, said they were not able to provide further comments. The underwater detonations on the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which were built to carry Russian natural gas to Germany, occurred in international waters but within Swedish and Danish economic zones. Sweden earlier said that a state actor was the most likely culprit. Denmark’s investigation was one of three into the explosions. Sweden ended its probe on Feb. 7 on the grounds that it has no jurisdiction. It said the investigation's primary purpose was to establish whether Sweden or its citizens somehow were involved. Swedish officials also said they handed over to Germany "material that can be used as evidence in the German investigation." Denmark's decision to close the investigation was expected, Kenneth Øhlenschlæger Buhl of the Royal Danish Defense College told The Associated Press. “The Swedes said they had a fairly good idea of who was behind it but have no jurisdiction over those they wanted to talk to,” Øhlenschlæger Buhl said. The Danes are saying “the same, just slightly different words.” “I believe that the Germans cannot reach any other conclusion,” he said. "They may open the lid a little more, but not much.” The German federal prosecutor’s office said Monday that its investigation continues and that it won't provide more information. The source of the explosions has been a major international mystery. The blasts happened as Europe attempted to wean itself off Russian energy sources following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and contributed to tensions that followed the start of the war. The undersea explosions ruptured the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which was Russia's main natural gas supply route to Germany until Russia cut off supplies at the end of August 2022. They also damaged the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which never entered service because Germany suspended its certification process shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February of that year. The explosions at the pipelines took place about 80 meters (260 feet) underwater on the ocean floor in the Baltic Sea. Seismic measurements indicated that the explosions occurred shortly before the leaks were discovered. Months after the detonations, there is no accepted explanation. Russia has accused the U.S. of staging the explosions, a charge Washington denies. In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “the situation is close to absurd.” “On the one hand, there was a deliberate act of sabotage and on the other hand there has been no progress” in the investigation. “The situation is so obvious that one can only express absolute astonishment,” he said. The pipelines were long a target of criticism by the U.S. and some of its allies, who warned that they posed a risk to Europe's energy security by increasing dependence on Russian gas. In March 2023, German media reported that a pro-Ukraine group was involved in the sabotage using a vessel and setting off from the German port of Rostock. Ukraine rejected suggestions it might have ordered the attack and German officials voiced caution over the accusation. Swedish prosecutors earlier hinted that the identity of the perpetrator was likely to remain unclear.

Russia's LNG Cargoes Bound For China Avoid The Red Sea - Russia has started diverting its LNG cargoes away from the Suez Canal and is using the longer route to China via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, amid a higher risk of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters on Wednesday. The longer route from Russia’s Yamal LNG project to China via Africa instead of the Suez Canal adds around 10 days to the travel time for LNG cargoes to reach their destinations in China and return to Russia, tying up more LNG tankers for longer periods at sea. This adds to recent struggles of Russia’s top LNG exporter, Novatek, which has yet to begin shipments from its new export project, Arctic 2 LNG, due to a lack of ships amid tightened U.S. sanctions on the project. Two of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, the United States and Qatar halted shipments via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal earlier this year.Qatar paused LNG cargo journeys through the Suez Canal in the middle of January, but it assured customers and the market that its LNG output is uninterrupted and Europe should expect longer delivery times.“While the ongoing developments in the Red Sea area may impact the scheduling of some deliveries as they take alternative routes, LNG shipments from Qatar are being managed with our valued buyers,” QatarEnergysaid in January.Now Russia is also avoiding the Red Sea, per LSEG data quoted by Reuters. Several tankers have already used the longer route to China, while vessels that delivered in December LNG to China from Yamal via the Suez Canal are now heading back to Russia via the Cape of Good Hope, according to the data.Last month, some tankers transporting Russian fuels started to avoid the Suez Canal route to Asia as ship-tracking data showed operators of vessels carrying Russian oil products may have reached the risk tolerance for passing close to Houthi missiles in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Qatar Takes Another Leap to Expand North Field Project, Boost LNG Output by 85% - Qatar on Sunday advanced plans to increase the country’s LNG production capacity by 85% from current levels, upping a bet that more natural gas will be needed as progress at other liquefaction projects appears to slow. CEO Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, of state-owned QatarEnergy, said an appraisal program had determined that the productive layers of the country’s massive North Field extend towards the west. Testing confirmed that 240 Tcf of additional gas reserves are present, boosting Qatar’s overall gas reserves to more than 2,000 Tcf. “These are very important results of great dimensions that will take Qatar’s gas industry to new horizons,” Al-Kabbi said. He added that the additional reserves would allow the company to move forward with the 16 million metric tons/year...

Pakistan Mulls Completion Of Iran Gas Pipeline Stalled By US Sanctions Pakistan is mulling over completing a much-delayed pipeline project with Iran, which has been stalled for years and has failed to move forward due to US sanctions. Islamabad is considering finalizing the first phase of the 80-kilometer pipeline, according to Pakistani news site The Nation. "Islamabad is contemplating to kick-off construction work on the 80 kilometers portion of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project… to escape a potential penalty of $18 billion," the report said. Associated Press "Pakistan will submit an application to seek a waiver of US sanctions for the IP project. Initially, it has been decided that in the first phase of the IP project, work on the 80 km portion from the Pak–Iran border to Gwadar will be started," a source in the Pakistani energy ministry told the outlet. The project, which aims to connect the Pakistani port city of Gwadar to the Iranian border, was launched in 2013. It required Pakistan to complete the construction of its end of the pipeline by 2014. Iran said it has already completed its side of the pipeline and has invested $2 billion in the project. Pakistani officials warned in May last year that Islamabad could face an $18 billion fine if it fails to complete the Iran–Pakistan Gas Pipeline project. Islamabad suspended its participation in the project a few months later, in August, due to the threat of US economic sanctions. At the time, Pakistani Minister of State for Petroleum, Dr Musadik Malik, said in written testimony to the country’s National Assembly that Pakistan "issued a Force Majeure and Excusing Event notice to Iran under the Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement (GSPA), which resultantly suspends Pakistan’s obligations under the GSPA." "The matter will be finally settled through arbitration, should Iran take this matter to arbitration," the minister said back in August. "The exact amount of penalty, if any, is subject to the outcome of the arbitration to be determined by the arbitrators."

India's Russian oil imports rise in February - ship tracking data – (Reuters) -India’s daily crude oil imports from its top supplier Russia are expected to rise in February from the previous month, helped by resumption of the light sweet Sokol grade, preliminary ship tracking data showed. However, India’s Russian oil imports are expected to slow in the coming months as the United States steps up shipping sanctions, forcing refiners to look for alternatives. The latest sanctions target Russia’s leading tanker group Sovcomflot, which Washington accuses of being involved in violating the G7 price cap, as well as 14 tankers tied to the shipping company. Discounts on Russian oil, which have already declined to around $3.5-$4 per barrel, are also expected to fall further as sanctions are seen as driving up freight costs.

India's Oil Supply From Russia Threatened by New US Sanctions -- Indian refiners are concerned that the latest U.S. sanctions against Russia could further impact their ability to import cheap Russian crude as freight rates are set to rise and dent refining margins, industry sources in India have told Reuters.The U.S. levied new sanctions against Russia last week, on the second anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and in response to the death of opposition politician and anticorruption activist Alexey Navalny.Among the 500 targets of the new sanctions, the U.S. Treasury and State are targeting Russia’s tanker operator Sovcomflot and more than a dozen crude oil tankers linked to the Russian state firm.Refiners in India are now concerned that the new sanctions would make it more difficult to have oil shipped from Russia on non-sanctioned vessels, which would raise shipping costs and eat into the refining margins, according to Reuters’ sources.India will still buy crude from Russia but only if it is sold below the G7 price cap of $60 per barrel and is shipped on non-sanctioned vessels, an Indian government source told Reuters.Even before the latest U.S. sanctions, Refining margins for India’s biggest state-owned refiners had dropped amid more difficult access to Russian crude and soaring freight rates due to the Red Sea disruption to shipments, analysts and traders told Bloomberg last week.For most of 2023, Indian refiners enjoyed high refining margins and profits as they imported cheap Russian crude at $20 a barrel and more below international benchmarks. The decline in refining margins is due to higher costs for Indian refiners because of higher competition for Russian supply in Asia, increased freight costs, and tougher U.S. sanctions enforcement, which has limited India’s access to very low-priced crudes from Russia.

Mindoro oil spill damage valued at P41.2B — report — The sinking of oil tanker MT Princess Empress in Oriental Mindoro last year caused at least P41.2 billion worth of damage to the environment and coastal communities, according to a report by a sustainability think tank. MT Princess Empress was carrying 800,000 liters of industrial fuel oil when it sank off Naujan town on Feb. 28, 2023, causing a massive oil spill that reached the coasts of provinces around the resource-rich Verde Island Passage (VIP). The report of the Center for Energy, Ecology, and Development (CEED) released Monday estimated that the oil spill's environmental damage amounted to around P40.1 billion. Meanwhile, socio-economic losses totaled P1.1 billion. The total cost of damage was 800% higher than the government's estimate, according to CEED. "Catastrophic oil spills like the one in the Verde Island Passage (VIP) are deadly, costly, and can forever change sensitive ecosystems," CEED executive director Gerry Arances said. "The oil spill has also impoverished the people not just of Mindoro but other surrounding communities that depend on the resources of VIP for their survival," he added. The study looked into the oil spill's damage 39 weeks after it happened. It used two methods to estimate the impact: how much coastal families in several Oriental Mindoro towns lost because of the incident, and how much people are willing to pay to fishing areas and applied it to those who do not live near the coast in the affected provinces. According to the study, fishers continued to suffer income losses from July to November even after the lifting of the fishing ban. It cited reports indicating that fishers' yields had not returned to their usual pre-oil spill levels, with only around a third of their normal catch being obtained. Arances called on the government to produce a comprehensive study detailing the full extent of the oil spill's impact on the environment and livelihood to address the immediate and long-term needs of affected residents. Fr. Edwin Gariguez, lead convenor of Protect VIP, pointed out that the marine corridor "will never be safe" as long as it is not legally protected under the Expanded National Integrated Protected Areas System. Verde Island Passage, dubbed by scientists as the "center of the center" of the world's marine biodiversity, faces threats from pollution from liquefied natural gas plants and terminals, illegal and unreported fishing, commercial shipping, and climate change. "One year is ample time for meaningful progress towards protecting the VIP and ensuring its preservation for future generations, time which the government did not use properly," Gariguez said. Environment officials said last year that the agency was pushing for the declaration of VIP as a legally protected seascape. A separate report by CEED found out that oil and grease levels remained high in several protected areas in Oriental Mindoro nearly a year after the oil spill.

Oil Demand Outlook in China Gets Holiday Boost -- The outlook for Chinese oil markets is looking a little brighter after a boom in travel over the Lunar New Year, raising hopes of a more sustained recovery in demand. China has set a brisk pace in snapping up cargoes of crude from across the world since the mid-February holiday, according to traders, as well as increasing its term supplies from Saudi Arabia for March. While traders said the volumes bought are steady compared to the previous month, the purchases are being made ahead of maintenance work, when refiners normally reduce imports. “Some refineries may be raising run rates or postponing maintenance plans because of strong demand momentum following higher-than-expected Lunar New Year travel,” analysts at Energy Aspects Ltd. including Jianan Sun wrote in note last week. “Chinese spot crude buying has been slightly stronger than our expectations.” The lunar holiday, a festive period when much of the population travels far and wide, is a pivotal time for the Chinese economy, which has struggled since reopening over a year ago. This year, travel and spending exceeded levels from before the pandemic despite the financial stresses weighing on households. For crude refiners, that translates to improved demand for fuels like gasoline. It’s a welcome boost to oil markets that had been pricing in softer Chinese consumption this year. Moreover, the purchases are being made even though refiners have planned more maintenance halts than usual, which should keep run rates elevated at the plants that aren’t affected. Refining capacity taken offline in 2024 is expected to rise 18 percent to a three-year high, according to a forecast from Mysteel OilChem earlier this month. Most of that is due to fall in the second and fourth quarters, while the majority of crude cargoes bought this month would arrive in May. Those purchases have spanned the globe, from the Middle East and Africa, to the US, Brazil and the North Sea, according to traders. As the world’s biggest importer, Chinese oil consumption is an important determinant of global prices. Still, there are nuances in the holiday data that might cool some of the excitement around what it might mean for commodities demand. Daily spending per traveler, for instance, was actually lower than during a number of major holidays since the economy reopened, according to Bloomberg Economics.

OPEC oil output rises by 90,000 bpd in February, survey finds (Reuters) - The following table shows crude output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in millions of barrels per day (bpd) in February and January, according to a Reuters survey published on Thursday. OPEC and allies, together known as OPEC+, announced a new round of voluntary cuts on Nov. 30 to be made in the first quarter of 2024. As part of this, Saudi Arabia extended its own 1 million bpd cut - first made in July 2023 - until the end of the first quarter. The figures in the first and second columns of the table are in millions of barrels per day. Totals are rounded. January output was not revised.

Oil Spreads Soar As Physical Market Screams Tightness While Hedge Fund Press Shorts - Something odd is taking place in the oil market. While on one hand "data" dissembled by Biden's Dept of Energy and specifically its statistical arm, the Energy Information Administration, has done everything it could to indicate there is a glut of oil, which is understandable - there is nothing Biden's handlers fear more than an inflationary surge in oil and gasoline prices ahead of the November elections and will do everything in their power to mandate a dataset that has the most adverse impact on oil prices, the physical market is sending just the opposite signal, with spreads showing screaming physical tightness. Consider the Brent prompt spread which after tumbling to a multi-year low in late December, has exploded higher to a backwardation around 90 cents... ... entrenching its strongest position since late October, while several other timespreads also the firmest since last September. The comparable WTI April-May spread was trading around 50 cents after hitting 75 cents last week. Commenting on the surge in time-spreads, Citi strategist Max Leyton - who is far less bearish than oil permabear Ed Morse who recently left the bank - says they strengthened on the “perfect storm” of Atlantic Basin supply issues, and notes that supply issues include “ongoing Red Sea vessel diversions, US freeze-offs hitting oil output, worker protests disrupting Libyan supply, UK oil terminal logistics limiting North Sea Forties supply, and buying up of crude cargoes at the Nigerian Dangote refinery." “Most of these issues could ease,” and the second quarter “still looks like a surplus quarter for total oil balances, meaning current strength could pause.” Of course, the current strength could very well accelerate if there is even one small geopolitical hiccup in the middle east where nobody expects any surprises, and where all eyes remain on how much more of its bitch Iran can make Biden, before even the US president is forced to retaliate even if it means 4mm barrels taken off the daily market. The dramatic spikes in prompt timespreads across the crude complex was the Goldman chart of the week just a few days ago, and shows just how dramatically and rapidly the market has tigthened up as a result of sudden scarcity of physical which, however, has barely received any mention in daily discussions about the energy market. Below we share some more charts from Goldman looking at the most recent indicators in physical markets, starting with supply where Goldman is seeing distinct "firmness"... ... while on the demand side of the equation, recent unseasonaly warm weather has lowered global oil demand by some 300kb/d. As a result of the tightness in supply, Goldman calculates that total OECD inventories are now about 21mb lower than the company's end of February balance forecast of 2,765 mb, with estimates pointing to further tightness. Yet despite this continued decline in supply and inventories, oil prices remain rangebound and seem unable to breakout solidly about the low 80s. Why is that? In a word: financialization, aka "paper oil", because while the physical oil market is screaming higher, financial players (managed money) continue to aggressively sell and short the sector as shown in the chart below. This desperate attempt by financial players to keep their underwater positions from getting stopped out and sparking a cascade of margin calls has also translated into a ravenous shorting of energy stocks which as we pointed out a week ago, are the most shorted sector in Goldman's prime brokerage.

Oil prices slip amid interest rate outlook and Middle East tension; Brent crude at $81.42/bbl - Oil prices experienced a slight decline amid speculation that unexpectedly robust inflation figures might postpone reductions in high interest rates, which have been restraining global fuel demand growth. Brent crude futures saw a decrease of 20 cents, marking a 0.3% drop to $81.42 per barrel by 1415 GMT. Similarly, U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) declined by 13 cents, representing a 0.2% decrease, settling at $76.36. This downward trend follows last week's losses, with Brent experiencing a decline of approximately 2%, while WTI dropped by over 3%, influenced by indications suggesting that the U.S. Federal Reserve intends to maintain interest rates without immediate adjustments. Since November, oil prices have fluctuated within the range of $70 to $90 per barrel. This fluctuation can be attributed to several factors, including increasing U.S. supply and apprehensions regarding subdued demand from China. These influences have counteracted the impact of supply cuts by the OPEC+ alliance, despite ongoing conflicts in regions like Ukraine and Gaza. -Jake Sullivan, White House national security adviser, informed CNN on Sunday that negotiators from the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel have reached preliminary agreements on a hostage deal amidst the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in the Middle East. Talks held in Paris outlined the basic framework, although negotiations are ongoing. -Goldman Sachs analysts noted a modest geopolitical risk premium of $2 per barrel on Brent crude due to attacks by Yemeni Houthis on ships in the Red Sea. Despite disruptions, they raised their summer peak price projection for oil to $87 per barrel, up from $85, citing larger-than-expected draws in stocks held by developed countries. -While Goldman Sachs anticipates a 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) increase in oil demand by 2024, they've adjusted their forecasts. They lowered projections for China but raised them for the United States and India.

The Oil Market on Monday Rallied Higher as Houthi Rebel Attacks Increased Concerns of Disruptions to Supply - The oil market on Monday rallied higher as Houthi rebel attacks increased concerns of disruptions to supply. The U.S. Central Command said Houthi rebels in Yemen narrowly missed hitting a U.S.-flagged tanker on Saturday. The Houthi fired a missile that likely targeted the Torm Thor in the Gulf of Aden on Saturday but missed the U.S.-flagged oil tanker. In overnight trading, the market sold off to a low of $75.84 after talks on the Gaza-Israel ceasefire appeared to progress. On Sunday, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said negotiators for the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Israel had agreed on the basic contours of a hostage deal during talks in Paris but added that they are still in negotiations. However, the market bounced off its low and retraced most of its previous losses as it rallied over $1.50 to a high of $78.03 in afternoon trading on the possible shipping disruptions in light of the attack on a U.S.-flagged tanker over the weekend. The April WTI contract later erased some of its gains and settled up $1.09 at $77.58. The April Brent contract settled up 91 cents at $82.53. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher as well, with the heating oil market settling up 7.3 cents at $2.7627 and the RB market settling up 2.89 cents at $2.3056.The U.S. Department of Energy said it was soliciting up to 3 million barrels of sour crude oil for delivery in August 2024.Israeli troops and Palestinian gunmen clashed throughout the Gaza Strip over the weekend, as mediators held talks on a possible ceasefire to free hostages held by Hamas and bring a measure of Ramadan respite to the enclave. However, prospects for securing any truce looked uncertain, with Israel saying it was planning to expand its sweep to destroy Hamas, while the Islamist faction stood firm on its demand for a permanent end to the nearly five month old war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CBS' "Face the Nation" it was not clear yet whether a hostage deal would materialize from the talks, declining to discuss specifics but saying Hamas needed to make more reasonable demands. Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said Netanyahu's comments cast doubt over Israel's willingness to secure a deal. Meanwhile, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said that negotiators for the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Israel "came to an understanding" on the basic contours of a hostage deal during talks in Paris. He said that the deal is still under negotiation and added there will have to be indirect discussions by Qatar and Egypt with Hamas.The U.S. Central Command said Yemen's Houthis fired a missile that likely targeted the Torm Thor in the Gulf of Aden on Saturday but missed the U.S.-flagged oil tanker. In the latest attack, the missile impacted the water causing no damage nor injuries. On Sunday, the Iran-aligned group said that they had launched an attack on the tanker. The Torm Thor is being used as part of the U.S. government's Tanker Security Program, which has aimed to increase oil shipping options for its armed forces in times of crisis. CENTCOM said the U.S. military also shot down in "self-defense" two one-way unmanned aerial attack vehicles over the southern Red Sea on Sunday.The U.S. has taken the top spot as Europe’s supplier of crude oil, diesel and liquefied natural gas in recent months. According to Kpler data, the U.S. shipped 2.17 million bpd of crude oil to Europe so far this month. Exports of diesel stood at 207,000 bpd in the same period, outpacing Saudi imports of about 201,000 bpd. No LNG cargoes are currently in the Red Sea.

Oil price news: Oil rises on U.S. physical market’s strength, China demand hopes - Oil rose as physical markets in the U.S. strengthened and demand from China showed signs of picking up. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed 1.4 per cent to settle above US$77 a barrel, while Brent advanced to top $82. Trading volumes were muted as several market participants attend International Energy Week in London, a major industry gathering, where they are set to weigh the outlook for oil this year. US physical crude prices strengthened in recent weeks to the highs of the year as refineries benefiting from strong margins snapped up barrels and foreign buyers turned to American crude to avoid Red Sea shipping issues. Prices also got support from a brief shutdown in exports from an oil field in western Libya during the weekend and stepped-up US and allied strikes on Houthi targets to combat commercial shipping disruptions in the Red Sea region. Some positive signals on demand also are emerging. In China, a boom in travel during the Lunar New Year holidays has raised hopes of a more sustained recovery in consumption. Local refiners have been snapping up cargoes from across the world since the mid-February holiday, according to traders, as well as having increased term supplies from Saudi Arabia for March. Traders are awaiting US inflation data that will shape expectations for when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. In wider markets, a gauge of the US currency was steady, while most other commodities, including copper, were weaker. Oil has traded in a narrow band for the past two weeks, with tensions in the Middle East and OPEC+ supply curbs offsetting the impact of higher production from outside the group, including the US. “Oil prices should stay anchored near term” amid “substantial non-OPEC+ supply growth over the next few years,” Francisco Blanch, commodity strategist at Bank of America Corp., said in a report. The cartel and allies including Russia are widely expected to prolong their current cutbacks into the next quarter at their meeting early next month. Prices: WTI for April delivery rose 1.4 per cent to settle at $77.58 a barrel. Brent for April settlement was up 1.1 per cent at $82.53 a barrel.

The Market Focused on Uncertainty Over a Potential Gaza Ceasefire and Expectations That OPEC+ Will Extend Voluntary Supply Cuts -- The crude market on Tuesday traded higher as the market focused on uncertainty over a potential Gaza ceasefire and expectations that OPEC+ will extend voluntary supply cuts in March. Israel, Hamas and Qatari mediators remained cautious about the progress towards a truce in Gaza, after U.S. President Joe Biden said he believed a ceasefire could be reached by Monday to halt the war ahead of Ramadam, which is expected to start on March 10th. The market traded lower in overnight trading and posted a low of $77.17 on the prospect of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, the market bounced off its low and retraced its previous losses. It extended its gains to over $1.40 as it posted a high of $79.00. The market was well supported by expectations that OPEC+ will announce a rollover of voluntary production quotas into the second quarter and even for the rest of the year. The April WTI contract settled up $1.29 at $78.87 and the April Brent contract settled up $1.12 at $83.65. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.67 cents at $2.7460 and the RB market settling up 3.88 cents at $2.3444. Israel and Hamas as well as Qatari mediators were all cautious about the progress towards a truce in Gaza after U.S. President Joe Biden said he believed a ceasefire could be reached in under a week to halt the war for the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Hamas is considering a proposal, agreed by Israel at talks with mediators in Paris for a ceasefire that would suspend fighting for 40 days, which would be the first extended truce. A senior source close to the talks said that the Islamist group was studying a draft proposal that includes allowing in a significant amount of humanitarian aid, as well as swapping Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages captured in the Hamas attack that triggered the war. The proposal is the most serious attempt in weeks to halt the fighting, and comes ahead of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan and with international pressure mounting on Israel to stop the killing of Palestinian civilians. Ramadan this year is expected to begin on the evening of March 10th. Delegations from Hamas and Israel are both in Qatar this week for so-called proximity talks, held in the same city through mediators. However, Qatar said a breakthrough had yet to be reached. Two senior Hamas officials said that President Joe Biden’s remarks appearing to suggest that an agreement had already been reached in principle were premature.Yemen's Houthis said they could only reconsider their missile and drone attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea once Israel ends its "aggression" in the Gaza Strip. Houthi spokesman, Mohammed Abdulsalam, said the situation would be reassessed if the siege of Gaza ended and humanitarian aid was free to enter.On Tuesday, Russia ordered a six-month ban on gasoline exports starting March 1st to keep prices stable amid increasing demand from consumers and farmers and to allow for maintenance of refineries.According to sources, OPEC+ will consider extending voluntary oil output cuts into the second quarter to provide additional support for the market and could keep them in place until the end of the year. The Chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation, Farhat Bengdara, said the country’s oil output has reached about 1.25 million bpd.

Oil Rallies as OPEC+ Considers Extending Cuts to Year's End -- West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude advanced more than 1% on Tuesday in reaction to media reports indicating Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia-led producers are considering extending 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in output cuts to the end of the year to prevent oil inventories from building. International crude benchmark Brent for April delivery moved higher after testing support at the $82.17 per barrel (bbl) 200-day moving average as investors reacted to the prospect of a longer-than-expected extension to OPEC+ production cuts. Citing several sources, Reuters reported that the 22-member coalition is not only considering extending current curbs through the end of June but is likely to keep them intact until the end of the year, signaling a shift towards a long-term strategy of supply management against a backdrop of lackluster global oil demand and surging U.S. shale production. The physical oil market in recent weeks has been flashing signs of rapid tightening, with prompt-month Brent contract currently trading with a $0.64 bbl premium against the next-month contract. Tuesday's move higher in the oil complex also follows an announcement by Russian officials that the country will impose a six-month ban on gasoline exports beginning March 1 to halt price increases and alleviate fuel shortages in its domestic market. The restriction could have also been triggered by unplanned refinery outages across Russia amid intensifying drone attacks by the Ukrainian military. Moscow in recent months has gradually reduced petroleum product flows to international markets because of operational disruptions at some of the country's largest refineries. According to official figures, gasoline and diesel exports in January were reduced by 37% and 23%, respectively, from the same month in 2023. Following an EU ban on Russian fuel imports from February 2023, most of Russia's gasoline and diesel flows have been redirected to Asia and the Middle East with China, United Arab Emirates and Türkiye emerging as major buyers of Russian oil products. Also on Tuesday, oil traders await the release of weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute, scheduled for a 4:30 p.m. ET release, followed by official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday morning. Consensus of analysts and traders surveyed by the Wall Street Journal revealed commercial crude oil inventories in the United States likely rose for a fifth consecutive week, while gasoline and distillate stocks were expected to have declined. Commercial crude stockpiles are seen to have risen by 1.5 million bbl to 444.5 million bbl in the week ended Feb. 23. Gasoline inventories are estimated to have fallen 1.3 million bbl, while stocks of distillates, mostly diesel fuel, are expected to have drawn down 2 million bbl. Refinery capacity use likely rose 1.1% to 81.7%, according to the survey. At settlement, NYMEX WTI for April delivery rallied $1.29 to $78.87 bbl, while front-month Brent futures jumped $1.12 to $83.65 bbl. NYMEX March RBOB futures gained $0.0388 to $2.3444 gallon. Moving in the opposite direction, NYMEX March ULSD futures retreated $0.0167 to $2.7460 gallon.

WTI Retraces Gains After Crude Build; Spreads Signal Physical Market Tightening Further -Oil prices are extending gains this morning, reversing earlier losses, as reports suggest OPEC+ will rollover its production cuts. This will pressure supply as Red Sea disruptions are triggering widely tracked gauges of the physical market to point to tighter conditions.Last night's big crude build, reported by API, was shrugged off (helped by a bigger than expected gasoline draw). Bulls will be hoping to see a smaller crude build API

• Crude +8.428mm (+1.5mm exp)
• Cushing +1.825mm
• Gasoline -3.27mm(-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -523k (-2.0mm exp)

DOE

• Crude +4.199mm (+1.5mm exp)
• Cushing +1.458mm
• Gasoline -2.83mm (-1.3mm exp)
• Distillates -510k (-2.0mm exp)

Official data showed a smaller Crude build than API (but still more than expected) as well as a decent build at Cushing. The Biden administration has added to the SPR for 12 of the last 14 weeks (+743k last week)

Oil prices mixed as U.S. crude inventories rise, OPEC+ considers extending production cuts -- Crude oil futures were mixed Wednesday as U.S. crude inventories rose while OPEC+ is considering extending its production cuts into the second quarter. The West Texas Intermediate contract for April dropped 33 cents, or 0.42% to settle at $78.54 a barrel. April Brent futures gained 3 cents, or 0.04%, to settle at $83.68 a barrel.U.S. commercial crude stocks rose by 4.2 million barrels last week, according to the Energy Information Administration. The inventory increase recorded by the federal government was lower than the 8.4 million barrel jump reported by the American Petroleum Institute.Inventories have been rising in the U.S. as the rate at which refineries process crude into finished products has declined in recent weeks.U.S. crude and the global benchmark are poised for a gain of 6.3% for the month. First month futures contracts are trading at premium to later months. A premium for immediate over later delivery is typically a sign of a tightening crude market. OPEC+ is considering extending its voluntary production cuts into the second quarter, sources told Reuters. The cartel and its allies agreed last November to slash 2.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter.OPEC's cuts are expected to limit downside risk to crude prices while the spare capacity the cartel is holding back will limit upside risk, effectively keeping Brent in a $70 to $90 range, according to a research note from Goldman Sachs published this week.Crude prices have also found support this month from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East with tensions rising on the Israel-Lebanon border and Houthi militants continuing their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.Goldman, however, views the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices as modest with crude production unaffected by the current conflict.

Builds in U.S. Crude Stocks Offset its Gains From a Potential Extension to the OPEC+ Output Cuts - The oil market ended the session mostly sideways after posting the day’s trading range by mid-morning as larger than expected builds in U.S. crude stocks offset its gains from a potential extension to the OPEC+ output cuts. The crude market posted a low of $77.78 in overnight trading amid a large build in U.S. crude stocks of 8.4 million barrels reported by the API on Tuesday evening and the hopes for a Gaza ceasefire deal in the coming day. The market later bounced off its low and retraced its losses as it posted a high of $79.62 ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. However, the market erased its gains and traded back towards the $78.00 level following the inventory report, which showed a larger than expected build in crude stocks of over 4 million barrels. The market traded sideways during the remainder of the session, with the April WTI contract settled down 33 cents at $78.54. The April Brent contract settled up 3 cents at $83.68. However, the product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 8.77 cents at $2.6583 and the RB market settling down 7.34 cents at $2.2710.The EIA reported that U.S. crude stocks increased while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week as refiners ran at below seasonal lows due to planned and unplanned outages. Crude oil inventories built for the fifth consecutive week, increasing by 4.2 million barrels to 447.2 million barrels in the week ending February 23rd. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma increased by 1.5 million barrels to 31 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks fell for a fourth consecutive week, falling by 2.8 million barrels to 244.2 million barrels.Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that Russia is not considering a ban on diesel exports and that a ban on gasoline exports may be lifted at any moment if the market becomes saturated. On Tuesday, Russia ordered a six-month ban on gasoline exports from March 1st to keep prices stable amid increasing demand from consumers and farmers and to allow for maintenance of refineries.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.9 million bpd of capacity in the week ending March 1st, increasing available refining capacity by 418,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 1 million bpd in the week ending March 8th.Trans Mountain Corp said it successfully removed a pipe from the final section of an expansion project that will nearly triple the flow of crude oil from Alberta to the Pacific Coast. The expanded pipeline’s anticipated in-service date continues to be in the second quarter of 2024.The U.S. economy grew at a solid rate in the fourth quarter amid strong consumer spending. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP growth that GDP increased at a 3.2% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, revised slightly down from the previously reported 3.3% pace. The economy grew at a 4.9% pace in the July-September quarter. It expanded 2.5% in 2023, up from 1.9% in 2022 and is growing above what Federal Reserve officials regard as the non-inflationary growth rate of 1.8%.

Oil inches down as US inflation data, rising OPEC output weigh (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Thursday as U.S. inflation data implied a softening of the world's biggest economy that could weaken crude demand, with rising OPEC production also weighing on prices. Brent futures for April delivery settled at $83.62 a barrel, down 6 cents. U.S. crude settled at $78.26 a barrel, losing 28 cents. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, showed January inflation in line with economists' expectations, keeping a June interest rate cut on the table. "The economic data, which is mixed, is helping to argue for interest rate cuts for the Fed, which is supportive of oil demand," "At the same time, those cuts are going to come because the economy is slowing and that impacts oil demand." Reports on consumer and producer prices earlier in February signalled sticky inflation and a guarded approach from Fed policymakers, which prompted investors to push back expectations of rate cuts to June from March. Euro zone inflation dipped further this month, strengthening the case for the European Central Bank to start easing interest rates later this year, data from some of the region's biggest economies showed. High interest rates have served many major Western economies to curb inflation, potentially reducing economic growth and oil demand. On the supply side, crude inventories in the U.S., the world's top producer, have risen for a fifth consecutive week, increasing by 4.2 million barrels, official data showed on Wednesday, exceeding forecasts of a 2.7 million-barrel build. . An extension to voluntary oil output cuts from the OPEC+ producer group was also on the table. "With the demand outlook remaining uncertain, we think OPEC will extend the current supply agreement to the end of the second quarter," ANZ analysts said in a note. A Reuters survey showed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, up 90,000 bpd from January, the survey found. Libyan output rose month-on-month by 150,000 bpd. Meanwhile, global benchmark Brent has hovered comfortably above the $80 mark for three weeks, with the Middle East conflict having only a modest impact on crude flows. However, the conflict shows few signs of abating, with both Israel and Hamas playing down prospects for a truce in their war in Gaza. Qatari mediators have said the most contentious issues remain unresolved. President Joe Biden said the U.S. was checking reports of Israeli troops firing on people waiting for food aid in Gaza and that he believed the deadly incident will complicate talks on a ceasefire. A Reuters survey of 40 economists and analysts forecast an average price of $81.13 a barrel for the front-month contract this year.

Oil Posts Second Monthly Gain on Signs of Tighter Global Market - West Texas Intermediate futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent traded on the Intercontinental Exchange softened in choppy trading Thursday, although both crude benchmarks registered their second consecutive monthly gain in February on speculation Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led allies would extend 2.2 million bpd in production cuts through the end of the year, further tightening the physical oil market amid strengthening demand fundamentals. A combination of upbeat demand projections and steep production cuts from OPEC+ sent crude prices to their highest level in 3-1/2 months in February. Expectations that OPEC+ will roll over current output targets into the second quarter and could potentially extend those cuts into year's end spurred another leg of buying in the oil complex this week. The 22-member coalition first announced 2.2 million bpd in voluntary supply cuts on Nov. 30, 2023, to backstop a slide in oil prices against softer demand fundamentals over the winter months. As the physical market moves into a seasonally stronger period of oil consumption over the second and third quarters, OPEC+ production cuts will likely spur global oil stock drawdowns, according to analysts. Wood Mackenzie on Thursday revised higher its demand projection growth this year to 1.9 million bpd, driven by stronger fuel consumption in India and China. International crude benchmark Brent for April delivery expired little changed at $83.62 bbl, with prompt-spread with the May contract widening to $1.71 bbl, reflecting a backwardated market structure. U.S. crude benchmark WTI softened $0.28 to settle at $78.26 bbl. Both benchmarks posted better than 5% gains in February. NYMEX March RBOB futures advanced $0.0333 to expire at $2.3043 gallon, with the next-month April RBOB futures settling the session with a $0.2767 premium. NYMEX March ULSD futures added $0.0255 for a $2.6838 gallon expiration, expanding the premium to the April contract to $0.0339 gallon. In financial markets, the U.S. dollar index advanced 0.19% against a basket of foreign currencies, and stocks on Wall Street extended February's gains after the Personal Consumption and Expenditure Index for January, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, precisely matched market expectations. On a monthly basis, the headline PCE index increased 0.3% following a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in December. From a year earlier, PCE rose 2.4%, a step down from the 2.6% reading reported at the end of 2023. Overall, the inflation report showed prices stabilized slightly above the Fed's 2% target amid ongoing demand rotation from goods into the service side of the economy. Prices for services increased 0.6% in the month while goods fell 0.2%. Interestingly, January mixed inflation results were realized as personal income unexpectedly jumped by a much larger than expected 1% last month after a 0.3% gain reported for December. Following inflation data, investors assigned a better than 50% likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee will reduce rates by 25 basis points in June from their current 5.25%-5.5% target range. Other economic data releases this week included the third estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2023, which was revised down by 0.1% to 3.2%. While slower than the 4.9% annualized growth rate for the third quarter last year. Still, the reading shows ongoing strength in the U.S. economy that was unexpected by most analysts having expected inflation and rising interest rates would slow consumer spending and economic growth.

WTI Briefly Tops $80 as USD Retreats on Soft US Macros -- Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange and Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange settled the first trading session of March sharply higher, with the U.S. crude benchmark briefly topping $80 bbl, boosted by a retreat in the U.S. dollar index after domestic manufacturing activity contracted at a faster rate in February, spurring optimism for a sooner-than-anticipated start to a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve. Friday's macroeconomic data releases offered some evidence that pockets of the U.S. economy could be under stronger pressure from the high-rate environment than previously thought. Domestic manufacturing activity, which closely corresponds with interest rates, contracted for the 16th straight month in February, and at a faster rate compared with the December-January period. U.S. manufacturing index, released by the Institute of Supply Management, declined to 47.8% last month, down 1.3% from the 49.1% reported in January. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. Interestingly, the Employment Index registered 45.9%, down 1.2% from January's 47.1% figure, meaning labor market conditions worsened on a monthly basis. Concerns about the labor market were front and center on consumers' minds at the start of the year, with the pair of macroeconomic reports revealing a developing softness in consumer sentiment. "Assessments of the present conditions weakened in February, as consumers' views of both business conditions and the employment situation became less favorable. Furthermore, consumers' assessments of their personal financial situation (a measure not included in calculating the Present Situation Index) also weakened," the Conference Board said earlier this week. Internationally, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index also remained in contraction for the fifth straight month in February, falling towards 49.1 from December's 49.2 reading, showed data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The softer reading was due, in part, to the Lunar New Year holiday season, which typically weighs on the country's manufacturing activity. Non-manufacturing PMI, which measures business activity in the services and construction sectors, climbed to 51.4 from 50.7 in January, thanks to booming travel and consumer spending patterns during the first two months of the year. The rebound in consumer spending might have been fueled by Beijing's efforts to improve credit access and partial stimulus measures aimed at revamping economic growth. China will release its annual Gross Domestic Product growth target on Tuesday (3/5). Underlying gains in the oil complex are expectations that OPEC+ will extend voluntary 2.2 million bpd in production cuts through the end of the second quarter along with some indication that the group could continue with curbs until the end of the year. The 22-member coalition first announced 2.2 million bpd in voluntary supply cuts on Nov. 30, 2023, to counter a slide in oil prices amid softer demand fundamentals over the winter months. As the physical market moves into a seasonally stronger period of oil consumption during the second and third quarters, OPEC+ production cuts will likely spur global oil stock drawdowns, according to analysts. At settlement, the new front-month May Brent futures on ICE rallied $1.64 to $83.55 bbl, while U.S. crude benchmark WTI for April delivery jumped $1.71 to $79.97 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures advanced $0.0334 to $2.6144 gallon after gapping $0.2632 higher on the spot continuous chart following the March contract's expiration Thursday, reflecting the transition to stricter fuel volatility specifications. New front-month April ULSD futures on NYMEX added $0.0543 to $2.7042 gallon.

Oil Climbs 2%, Notches Weekly Gains Ahead of OPEC+ Decision (Reuters) -Oil prices rose 2% on Friday and posted weekly gains as traders awaited an OPEC+ decision on supply agreements for the second quarter while also weighing fresh U.S., European and Chinese economic data. Brent futures for May settled $1.64 higher, or 2%, at $83.55 a barrel. The April Brent futures contract expired on Feb. 29 at $83.62 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for April rose $1.71, or 2.19%, to $79.97 a barrel. For the week, Brent added around 2.4% following the switch in contract months, while WTI gained more than 4.5%. "The expectation that OPEC+ is going to continue with their voluntary production cuts well into the second quarter of 2024 is the main focus on the market," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. A decision on extending OPEC+ cuts is expected in the first week of March, sources have said, with individual countries expected to announce their decisions. "Sticking to the voluntary production cuts until the end of the year would be a strong signal and should therefore be seen as price-positive," A Reuters survey showed the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, up 90,000 bpd from January. Strong expectations of Saudi Arabia keeping term prices of crude it sells to Asian customers little changed in April from March levels also underpinned the market on Friday. Meanwhile, geopolitical tension in the Red Sea also lifted prices on Friday, said Tim Snyder, an economist at Matador Economics. The leader of Yemen's Houthis said on Thursday the group would introduce military "surprises" in the region. U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs for a second straight week, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. The oil rig count, an early indication of future output, rose by three to 506 this week, the highest since September. On the demand side, Chinese manufacturing activity shrank for the fifth straight month in February, an official survey showed. Euro zone inflation fell in February according to Eurostat, but both the headline figure and core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, just missed analysts' expectations. Supporting prices, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index showed January inflation in line with economists' expectations on Thursday, reinforcing market bets for a June interest rate cut. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Feb. 27, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said.

Rubymar: Houthi-damaged ship awaits towing to Saudi amid oil slick -- A vessel impaired in a mid-February Houthi attack offshore Yemen remains abandoned at sea awaiting towing to safe harbor amid growing concerns of an oil spill. The Iran-backed militant group claimed it dealt "catastrophic damage" during a Feb. 18 offensive against the Belize-flagged general cargo vessel Rubymar, which the Houthis said was "at risk of potential sinking in the Gulf of Aden." The tanker's crew abandoned ship. The attack caused "an 18-mile oil slick," the U.S. Central Command said in a social media update on Feb. 24, adding that the tanker is anchored, but taking on water. "The M/V Rubymar was transporting over 41,000 tons of fertilizer when it was attacked, which could spill into the Red Sea and worsen this environmental disaster," Centcom said. Roy Khoury, CEO of the Rubymar's shipping broker Blue Fleet Group, told CNBC that the vessel is now awaiting the assistance of the U.S. navy to tow the ship to Saudi port Jeddah, as neither Aden nor the authorities of Djibouti, located opposite of Yemen, have accepted to receive the tanker on their grounds. The Saudi foreign ministry, U.S. navy and U.S. defense department did not immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment on whether they will accept or facilitate delivery of the tanker.Khoury added that, as the Rubymar's crew has deserted the ship, his company has no information on the status of a possible oil leak.A spokesperson for the International Maritime Organization told CNBC that the organization is aware of the incident and closely monitoring the situation. As the IMO lacks operational facilities such as satellites, it also did not independently verify the oil slick. Houthi forces have been assailing ships in the Red Sea with increasing frequency since the end of last year, disrupting marine traffic through a key route that accounts for around 12% of global maritime transit. Several shipping firms and oil companies have consequently suspended journeys through the Red Sea or redirected voyages around Africa. U.S. and U.K. authorities have engaged Yemeni positions in response to the offensives, which the Houthis claim to undertake out of solidarity with Palestinian civilians harmed in the ongoing war between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip.The Rubymar's casualty has erupted concerns over the environmental impairment of such attacks. Oil spills are widely feared for their broad and long-lasting environmental impact on marine habitats, including toxic exposure for vulnerable wildlife. "Oil being a highly toxic substance means that any oil spill has adverse impacts on the surrounding environment and communities, the degree of which depends on several factors such as the quantity released and the sea current," Julien Jreissati, MENA program director for Greenpeace, told CNBC.

Houthis Have Knocked Out Several Undersea Internet Cables: Report -There are new reports saying Yemen's Houthis have knocked out several underwater telecommunications cables linking Europe and Asia, however, some of the accounts of the extent of damage remain conflicting.Multiple Israeli publications are reporting Monday that four underwater communications cables between Saudi Arabia and Djibouti have been damaged in recent months - the result of Houthi sabotage. The reporting appears to have originated in Israel's financial daily outlet Globes.But one industry publication cautions, "One cable operator has confirmed damage to a cable in the region, but said it didn’t know the cause yet." Reportedly only the Seacom operator has issued confirmation that it has had cable issues at Djibouti. According to the Israeli media report:Three months after the Houthis began attacking merchant ships, the Yemenite rebels have carried out another one of their threats. "Globes" has learned that four submarine communication cables have been damaged in the Red Sea between Jeddah in Saudi Arabia and Djibouti in East Africa.According to the reports, these are cables from the companies AAE-1, Seacom, EIG and TGN. This is causing serious disruption of Internet communications between Europe and Asia, with the main damage being felt in the Gulf countries and India.Other impacted cables are operated by the companies Tata, Ooredoo, Bharti Airtel, and Telecom Egypt, but these did not issue immediate comment or confirmation as to the reported damage or outages. But the Seacom outage is now being confirmed by NetBlocks...

Houthis Say They'll Reassess Red Sea Attacks If Israel's Onslaught in Gaza Ends - A spokesman for Yemen’s Houthis reaffirmed to Reuters that the group’s attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden would only be reassessed if Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza comes to an end.“There will be no halt to any operations that help Palestinian people except when the Israeli aggression on Gaza and the siege stops,” said Houthi spokesman Mohammed Abdulsalam.A ceasefire in Gaza would bring regional calm as Hezbollah has also said it would stop launching rocket attacks against targets in northern Israel if Hamas and Israel agreed to a truce. However, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has threatened a ceasefire in Gaza would mean an escalation in southern Lebanon.During the seven-day Gaza ceasefire in November that facilitated the exchange of hostages and prisoners, there was calm along the Lebanon-Israel border, and Houthi attacks on shipping largely subsided. US officials recently told CNN that they believe a new ceasefire would likely bring an end to the Houthi operations.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have been clear since they started targeting Israel-linked commercial shipping that the only way they would stop is if Israel stopped slaughtering Palestinians in Gaza and allowed humanitarian aid to flow unimpeded.Instead of pressuring Israel to agree to a ceasefire, the US and the UK launched a new bombing campaign against the Houthis in January, which only escalated the situation. The Houthis responded by targeting American and British commercial shipping and have successfully hit several vessels.The US and the UK have launched four major rounds of airstrikes, and the US has been launching unilateral strikes on a near-daily basis. President Biden launched the new war without authorization from Congress.Senators grilled Biden administration officials on Tuesday over the lack of authorization and said the president has no authority to claim “self-defense” under Article II of the Constitution since the campaign was launched in defense of foreign ships.“Article II self-defense means you can defend US personnel, you can defend US military assets, you probably can defend US commercial ships, but the defense of other nations’ commercial ships in no way, and it’s not even close, that’s not self-defense,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA).

Report: Hezbollah Would Halt Fire on Israel If Ceasefire Reached in Gaza - Hezbollah would halt fire on Israel if Hamas agrees to a hostage deal that includes a ceasefire unless Israel continues to bomb southern Lebanon, Reuters reported on Tuesday.During the previous hostage deal that resulted in a seven-day truce in Gaza, there was calm across the Lebanon-Israel border. But in recent months, the situation has been escalating, and Israel has been hitting targets deeper inside Lebanon.“The moment Hamas announces its approval of the truce, and the moment the truce is declared, Hezbollah will adhere to the truce and will stop operations in the south immediately, as happened the previous time,” a source close to Hezbollah told Reuters.Israel has sent the opposite message, with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant threatening an escalation of strikes if a hostage deal is reached.“In the event of a temporary truce in Gaza – we will increase the fire in the north independently, and will continue until the full withdrawal of Hezbollah and the return of the residents to their homes,” Gallant said over the weekend.France has been trying to mediate a deal between Hezbollah and Israel and submitted a written proposal that would involve Hezbollah withdrawing six miles from the Israeli border. But Hezbollah has said it would only enter talks once there was a ceasefire in Gaza.According to AFP, Israeli strikes on Lebanon have killed 284 people, including 44 civilians. The Israeli military has said Hezbollah’s attacks have killed 10 Israeli soldiers and six civilians.

Israeli Officials Downplay Prospect of New Hostage Deal With Hamas - Israeli officials are downplaying the prospects of a new hostage deal with Hamas even as Israeli negotiators head to Qatar to discuss the details, The Times of Israel reported on Monday. According to media reports, the deal presented on Friday during talks between Qatar, Egypt, the US, and Israel would involve the release of 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for a six-week ceasefire and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. An Israeli official told the Times that the deal still hasn’t been presented to Hamas and is only being discussed with mediators. “We need to be careful,” the official said. “We’re still talking to ourselves.” Hamas has been seeking a permanent ceasefire, and a second Israeli official told the Times that the main gap is “the end of fighting, the IDF leaving the Gaza Strip.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that the Israeli slaughter in Gaza would continue after any truce and said a hostage deal would only delay an Israeli invasion of Rafah, the southern Gaza Strip city that’s packed with 1.5 million Palestinians. According to Haaretz, Netanyahu has also complicated the negotiations by adding a demand for the freed Palestinian prisoners to be deported to a third country, possibly Qatar or Turkey. He added the demand after Qatar, Egypt, and the US presented the new outline for a hostage deal.

Netanyahu Says Hostage Deal Will Only Delay Attack on Rafah - Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained that if Tel Aviv agrees to a new hostage deal with Hamas, it will only “delay” the Israeli attack on Rafah. International aid organizations have warned that an attack on the city of 1.5 million will be devastating to the civilian population of Gaza.On Friday, the US, Egypt, and Qatar presented a new hostage deal that would see the release of 40 Israeli captives in exchange for a six-week pause in fighting. The deal was negotiated without the input of Tel Aviv and Hamas. While US and Israeli officials have presented the hostage release proposal as progress, neither Tel Aviv nor Hamas have signed on to it.Hamas’ top priority is ending the Israeli onslaught. Netanyahu’s remarks signal Israel is unwilling to end the war until every city in Gaza is destroyed. “Once we begin the Rafah operation, the intense phase of the fighting is weeks away from completion. Not months,” Netanyahu told CBS. “If we don’t have a deal, we’ll do it anyway.”From north to south, Israel’s operations have systematically annihilated the Strip. The operations have killed over 30,000 Palestinians and driven 1.5 million to the southernmost city of Rafah. Aid organizations that operate in Gaza warn an assault on Rafah will be catastrophic as there is no other place for the Palestinian people to flee.“Rafah is the end of the line. There is nowhere else to flee. Even if displaced people return north, they will find no homes to go back to, and no supply lines to bring in food, water, medicines, or any other essentials,” Avril Benoit, executive director of Doctors Without Borders, said. “The consequences of a full-scale assault on Rafah are truly unimaginable. We cannot stand by and wait for this to unfold.”

Israeli DM: Ceasefire in Gaza Would Mean Escalation in Lebanon - Ongoing fighting on the Lebanon-Israel border may well get much worse, according to Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Commenting on the ongoing ceasefire talks looking to at least temporarily stop the open-ended offensive against the Gaza Strip, Gallant says that Israel will “increase the fire in the north independently” if there was a pause. Interestingly, the only thing that was holding up Hezbollah in supporting their own ceasefire with Israel was the ongoing war in Gaza. If somehow that war came to an end, a deal in the north should be much more possible even if Israel sees it as a license to escalate. Gallant says the fighting will continue until Hezbollah is forced from the border and displaced Israelis are able to return home to the north. He also said Hezbollah isn’t able to replace commanders that Israel has killed. This comes after an explosion on the Syrian side of the Syria-Lebanon border left at least three Hezbollah members killed, and it is widely expected it was the result of Israeli airstrikes against a pair of trucks in the area. Saturday saw a flurry of Hezbollah missile strikes against northern Israel, and reports from Hezbollah said the attacks targeted at least six military bases and other gatherings of Israeli military personnel. The Saturday missiles were near several Israeli towns along the border, though the Israeli military reported that most of the missiles fired had been intercepted. Either way, there was no report of damage or injuries. Israel responded with fire against southern Lebanon, claiming again to attack a “weapons depot” belonging to Hezbollah. There was similarly no report of any such damage or casualties inside Lebanon.

Israel Hinders Humanitarian Assistance in Gaza By Delaying Visas for Aid Workers - Israel is using bureaucratic red tape to delay the entry of aid workers into the West Bank and Gaza. The policy has led to fewer humanitarian aid workers providing services to Palestinians, as many children are on the brink of starvation. According to Haaretz, the Population and Immigration Authority is refusing to grant visas for employees of international aid agencies that operate in Gaza and the West Bank. Officials in Tel Aviv claim the visas had not been issued due to bureaucratic rearrangement. However, aid workers told Haaretz they believe the denials are politically motivated. The Israeli outlet reports that as well as not approving new visas, it is refusing to extend visas for aid workers already in Gaza and the West Bank. The lack of workers has disrupted the activities of several aid organizations operating in the Strip. Tel Aviv has taken several steps to block and slow aid transfers to Gaza. Israel has blocked US-funded flour from reaching Gaza, Tel Aviv has established an inspection regime that prevents live-saving aid from entering the Strip, and Israeli forces have targeted the Gazan police force that helps secure aid as it is distributed in the besieged enclave. The Israeli onslaught in Gaza has created a humanitarian crisis that American officials have compared to the horrific situation that once plagued Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. Children in Gaza have starved to death, including a two-month-old boy who died on Friday. In addition to hindering aid operations in Gaza, the visa restrictions have also impacted international organizations that assist Palestinians in the West Bank. After Israel began its onslaught in Gaza, Tel Aviv stepped up military raids in the West Bank.The Israeli raids in the West Bank have resulted in thousands of arrests. Many of the Palestinians are detained without charges. Additionally, Israeli forces have often stood by while Israeli settlers in the West Bank have killed, harassed, and chased Palestinians from their homes. Nearly 400 Palestinians in the West Bank have been killed by Israeli forces over the past four and a half months, including over 100 children.

Israel Escalates Demolitions of Palestinians’ Homes in Occupied East Jerusalem - Under the cover of the Israeli genocide and ethnic cleansing campaign against the Gaza Strip, which has killed nearly 30,000 Palestinians including more than 12,000 children, Tel Aviv is drastically ramping up home demolitions in occupied East Jerusalem.According to Al Jazeera, in the eastern side of the city, the Jerusalem municipality has been escalating home demolitions since the brutal Israeli onslaught in Gaza began last year. East Jerusalem, where 362,000 Palestinians live, has been illegally occupied by the Israeli military for almost sixty years along with the rest of the West Bank. Tel Aviv’s pseudo justification for their organized destruction of Palestinian homes is the claim that these residences are built without permits, which the municipality usually only issues to exclusively Jewish neighborhoods. Therefore, Palestinians are left without options and must build their homes in the absence of these permits, making 28% of their East Jerusalem homes “illegal.” Municipal elections will be held at the end of the month, in a bid to appeal to their Jewish constituencies, activists fear candidates are demanding more Palestinian homes be bulldozed.The far-right deputy mayor of Jerusalem, Arieh King, is running for mayor and calling to prevent Palestinians from building homes in order to maintain Jewish demographic dominance over the indigenous population. King has previously referred to Palestinians as “subhuman.”“If King becomes the next mayor in the coming elections, the situation will become quite difficult. He has openly threatened to demolish Palestinian homes and kill Palestinians,” says Fakhri Abu Diab, a prominent Palestinian human rights activist and elected spokesperson of the Silwan district.Abu Diab’s home was recently bulldozed after 20 or 30 officers stormed his house. He is now homeless along with his children and grandchildren. To have a place to sleep, they are currently relying on friends and relatives.Moreover, Abu Diab may not be able to afford the cost of his home’s demolition which Israel forces Palestinians to finance in addition to t he salaries of the officers who take part in the destruction and evictions. Abu Diab expects to be charged at least $20,000 or $30,000.

Israeli Airstrikes Hit Syria, Causing 'Material Losses' - Israeli airstrikes were launched against Syria on Wednesday, targeting an area outside of Damascus, Syria’sSANA news agency reported.The SANA report said that Syrian air defenses intercepted some of the Israeli missiles, and a military source said the strikes only caused material damage, with no casualties reported.A correspondent for Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen reported missiles targeted al-Sayyeda Zeinab, an area to the south of Damascus. Loud explosions were also heard further south.Israel has bombed Syria with impunity for years but has significantly escalated its airstrikes in the country since October 7. The Israeli bombing campaign has killed several members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) over the past few months, raising the risk of a major regional war.The last suspected Israeli airstrike in Syria hit an area near the Lebanon border over the weekend, killing three Hezbollah members. Before that, an Israeli airstrike hit a residential building in Damascus, killing at least two.Israel also continues to launch airstrikes in Lebanon as the risk of a full-blown war in southern Lebanon grows. Hezbollah has said it would stop firing on northern Israel if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, but Israel is threatening it will escalate in Lebanon.

Egypt Accused of Threatening Rights Group That Reported on Construction of Camp in Sinai for Palestinian Refugees - Egypt has been accused of threatening a human rights group that first reported on the construction of a walled camp for Palestinian refugees in the Sinai Desert on the border with Gaza. Eighteen civil society groups, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, said Egyptian officials have been engaged in a smear campaign against the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights (SFHR) and its director, Ahmed Salem.The SFHR was the first to report on the construction of the walled camp and said it was being built to prepare for an influx of Palestinian refugees as Israel is threatening to invade Rafah, the southern Gaza city that’s on the Egyptian border and is packed with 1.5 million Palestinians.Egypt has denied the report, but The Wall Street Journal also published a story on the construction and cited unnamed Egyptian officials who said the camp would be able to house 100,000 Palestinians but that Cairo would like to keep the number between 50,000 and 60,000. According to the civil society groups, since mid-February, Egyptian government officials and pro-government figures “have engaged in an aggressive smear campaign against the Sinai Foundation and Salem on television, in newspapers, and social media.”The statement also alleges Salem, who is based in the UK, has been threatened that he “would be brought back to Egypt” if he didn’t stop what he was doing and was warned that he was “not far from reach even abroad.”Salem has said that in order to prevent the news of the construction being made public, the Egyptian military has “increased patrols and checkpoints in the area, stopping residents and construction workers, and looking into the contents of their mobile phones in an attempt to intimidate locals and prevent reporting about the construction work of the fortified zone.”Israeli government officials have not been shy about their desire to expel Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, and a document prepared by Israel’s Intelligence Ministry that was leaked back in October said the best-case scenario for Israel would be to send all 2.3 million Palestinians living in Gaza into Egypt. So far, Cairo has strongly resisted the plan, but the SFHR report indicates Egypt might cave to Israeli pressure to allow some refugees in if Rafah is invaded.

Indian port workers to refuse to handle arms shipments to Israel - The Water Transport Workers Federation of India (WTWFI), representing 3,500 workers at 11 major Indian ports, has declared that it will refuse to load or unload weapons bound for Israel on any ship. The announcement is a sign of the depth of opposition among Indian workers to Israel’s massacring of tens of thousands of defenceless Palestinians with US-supplied weapons and Washington’s full-throated political support. Workers and youth around the world, horrified at Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza, have been protesting in their millions demanding an end to the wanton slaughter being perpetrated by the Israel Defence Forces and the fascist regime headed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The death toll in Gaza has officially surpassed 30,000 men, women and children, and it rises to more than 37,000 if the missing are included. Hospitals, schools and other key infrastructure have been destroyed. The Israeli military has blocked essential supplies of food, water, fuel, medical care and electricity, resulting in widespread starvation, disease and further deaths. Now it is preparing a murderous ground offensive into Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza where 1.5 million Palestinians are living in the most atrocious conditions. Opposition among Indian workers and rural toilers to the genocide is widespread. The WTWFI therefore felt compelled to declare its refusal to handle arms shipments destined for Israel. However, the WTWFI, which is affiliated to the Stalinist Communist Party of India (Marxist)-controlled Center of Indian Trade Unions (CITU), did so in hopes of retaining credibility among workers, rather than with the aim of organising any genuine mass worker mobilisation against the genocide. The Stalinist union leaders have done nothing to educate workers about Israel’s imperialist-backed genocide against the Palestinians and India’s complicity in it, and are offering them no perspective as to how they can oppose it.

European Official Says Everyone Knows There Are Western Special Operations Forces in Ukraine - In the wake of French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments about Western countries not ruling out sending troops to Ukraine, a European official speaking to Financial Times pointed out that Western special operations forces are already in the country.“Everyone knows there are Western special forces in Ukraine — they’ve just not acknowledged it officially,” a senior European defense official said.The Discord leaks revealed last year that as of March 2023, there were 97 NATO special operations soldiers in Ukraine, including 14 Americans and 50 British troops. The leak confirmed earlier reporting from The Intercept that said US special operations forces were on the ground, along with CIA operatives.It’s unclear if the number of NATO troops inside Ukraine has changed since the Discord leaks, but the comment from the European official confirms that they are still there in some capacity. Macron’s comments also drew attention to the tens of thousands of foreign fighters who joined Ukraine’s Foreign Legion. At least 50 American citizens have been killed fighting in Ukraine.French officials have insisted Macron was not talking about sending a large number of troops to fight in Ukraine, suggesting he was talking about training missions. Many NATO members distanced themselves from the remarks and said they weren’t planning to send troops, but Macron received support from Lithuania, which said it was discussing sending troops for training.“We are talking about sending training missions, instructors. The decision would be made on a multilateral basis,” said Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas. In response to Macron’s comments, the Kremlin said that NATO troops inside Ukraine would make a direct Russia-NATO conflict “inevitable.”

Slovakia Says Some NATO Members Are Considering Sending Troops to Ukraine - Slovakia Prime Minister Robert Fico warned on Monday that some NATO and EU countries are considering sending troops to Ukraine, a step that would risk direct war between NATO and Russia.“Several NATO and EU member states are considering sending their soldiers to Ukraine on a bilateral basis,” said Fico, who was elected last year on a platform of opposing the proxy war in Ukraine.Some NATO members have signed bilateral security deals with Ukraine, including Germany and the UK, but there’s no indication they’re considering sending troops at this time.“We see huge security risks in the bilateral agreements that are likely to be conducted soon with NATO and EU member states that want to send their troops to Ukraine,” Fico said.He made the comments ahead of a meeting of European leaders in Paris about the proxy war in Ukraine. After the summit, French President Emmanuel Macron said the idea of Western troops in Ukraine hasn’t been ruled out.“There’s no consensus today to send in an official, endorsed manner troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out,” Macron said.

European farmers spray police with liquid manure during another violent clash in Brussels - (videos) European farmers sprayed police with liquid manure and hurled eggs and flares during another wave of clashes in Brussels, Belgium, on Monday, February 26, 2024. The confrontation occurred as the European Union’s agriculture ministers convened to address the agricultural sector’s grievances, including red tape and competition from low-cost imports. Central to the farmers’ grievances are the challenges posed by bureaucratic hurdles and the threat of cheap imports from countries not bound by the EU’s stringent agricultural standards. These issues have culminated in significant economic pressures on local farmers, who argue that current policies undermine their competitiveness and sustainability. The demonstration in Brussels is a potent symbol of the agricultural community’s demand for fairer policies that support local farmers against the backdrop of global market dynamics. In response to the escalating tensions and as part of its broader environmental and sustainability objectives, the EU has made some concessions, particularly concerning its flagship Green Deal environmental policies. The EU has moderated certain aspects of these policies, notably removing a goal to cut farming emissions from its 2040 climate roadmap. However, farmers argue that these concessions are insufficient. They are calling for more comprehensive reforms that address the core of their concerns, including the impact of free trade agreements and deregulation on their livelihoods. Farmers demand a restructuring of the EU’s Common Agriculture Policy (CAP), aiming for a system that ensures fair revenue, protects against undercutting by cheap imports, and recognizes the essential role of agriculture in society. The protest in Brussels is not an isolated incident but part of a broader wave of unrest among farmers across Europe. In recent weeks, similar demonstrations have taken place in various European countries, each echoing the call for reforms and support for the agricultural sector. In France, President Emmanuel Macron faced boos and whistles from farmers at the Paris Agricultural Fair on Saturday, while in Spain, farmers have taken to the streets to demand the EU loosen regulations and reconsider changes to its CAP. Polish farmers, meanwhile, have protested against cheap imports from non-EU countries like Ukraine, which they argue undermine their products’ competitiveness. These protests across Europe highlight a growing consensus among farmers on the need for significant policy reforms. The agricultural community is urging the EU and national governments to rethink agricultural policies in a way that supports the sector’s sustainability, ensures fair competition, and recognizes farmers’ crucial role in feeding the population. Without meaningful action and dialogue between policymakers and the farming community, the discontent among Europe’s farmers is likely to continue, potentially affecting agricultural production and food security in the region.