week ending Mar 9

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Delivers Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report To Congress (video, 3:30) In prepared remarks, released ahead of his 'Humphrey-Hawkins' testimony this morning, Fed Chair Powell reiterated to lawmakers that the US central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates until policymakers are convinced they have won their battle over inflation.“The committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%,” Powell confirmed. The snoozer of prepared remarks simply reiterate the more-hawkish stance that has appeared recently after proclaiming the pivot prompted rational exuberance in every quarter of the markets. Fed whsiperer Nick Timiraos was even non-plussed by the remarks:

• 1) He characterizes last year’s slowdown in core inflation as “notable” and “widespread”
• 2) The forward guidance around rate cuts is little changed

Powell is set to testify to the House Financial Services Committee at 10 a.m...(watch live here) Full prepared remarks below:

Fed Chair Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress -- This testimony will be live here at 10:00 AM ET. Report here. From Fed Chair Powell: Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. An excerpt on policy: We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year. But the economic outlook is uncertain, and ongoing progress toward our 2 percent inflation objective is not assured. Reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of progress we have seen in inflation and ultimately require even tighter policy to get inflation back to 2 percent. At the same time, reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the policy rate, we will carefully assess the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.

Jerome Powell testimony: More evidence needed on tamed inflation (AP) — Chair Jerome Powell reinforced his belief Wednesday that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate this year but said it first wants to see more evidence that inflation is falling sustainably back to the Fed’s 2% target. Powell’s comments to a House committee largely echoed those he made at a news conference Jan. 31. Since then, however, government reports have shown thatinflation picked up from December to January, and hiring accelerated. Those signs suggested that the economy remains hot and that the process of further slowing inflation will likely be uneven from month to month.But Powell did not express concern about the inflation data. Instead, he noted that according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, inflation “has eased notably over the past year” even though it remains above the central bank’s target.On the first of his two days of semi-annual testimony to Congress, Powell also suggested that the Fed faces two risks: Cutting rates too soon — which could “result in a reversal of progress” in reducing inflation — or cutting them “too late or too little,” which could weaken the economy and hiring. The effort to balance those two risks marks a shift from early last year, when the Fed was still rapidly raising its benchmark rate to combat high inflation.The financial markets are consumed with divining the timing of the Fed’s first cut to its benchmark rate, which stands at a 23-year high of about 5.4%. A rate reduction would likely lead, over time, to lower rates for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and many business loans. Most analysts and investors expect a first rate cut in June, though May remains possible. Fed officials, after meeting in December, projected that they would cut rates three times this year.In his remarks Wednesday, Powell offered no hints on the potential timing of rate cuts. Wall Street traders put the likelihood of a rate cut in June at 69%, according to futures prices, up slightly from about 64% a week ago.The Fed chair’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee coincides with intensified efforts by the Biden administration to stem public frustration with inflation, which erupted three years ago and has left average prices well above where they were before. President Joe Biden’s bid for re-election will pivot in no small part on voter perceptions of his handling of inflation and the overall economy.The administration is trying to crack down on what it calls unjustified price hikes by many large companies. Biden recently attacked “shrinkflation,” whereby a company shrinks the contents of a product rather than raise its price. The president has alsosought to limit so-called “junk fees,” which in effect raise the prices that consumers pay.At Wednesday’s hearing, some Democrats on the committee called for the Fed to start reducing its benchmark rate soon to help lower mortgage rates and make homes more affordable.“We need the Fed to start cutting, because like the rent, interest rates are too damn high,” said Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts.On a separate topic, Powell replied to a question by saying the Fed will likely alter a central bank proposal that would toughen bank regulation by requiring the 32 largest banks to hold additional capital — assets similar to cash — against potential lending losses. The biggest banks have criticized the proposal, released last summer, arguing that it would force the banks to reduce lending and would slow the economy as a result.“I do expect there will be broad and material changes to the proposal,” Powell said. “I’m confident that the final product will be one that does have broad support both at the Fed and in the broader world,” he added, acknowledging that some Fed officials opposed the proposal when it was first released.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.43 Trillion from Peak, to $7.54 Trillion, Lowest since February 2021 | Wolf Street By Wolf Richter - Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $91 billion in February, to $7.54 trillion, the lowest since February 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.43 trillion, as quantitative tightening continues on track. During QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, the Fed’s total assets dropped by $688 billion, while inflation was below or at the Fed’s target (1.8% core PCE in August 2019), and the Fed was just trying to “normalize” its balance sheet.Now inflation is hot, though it has come down a lot, driven by price drops in durable goods, and a plunge in energy prices. But services inflation didn’t cool off enough and now “core services” inflation had gone into a nasty acceleration.The Fed has now started discussions on when and how to slow down QT so that it doesn’t blow up something that would cause the Fed to halt QT prematurely. Fed governors Waller and Logan have come out with some basic principles on what a plan might entail (see our explanation: Fed Discusses Balance Sheet “Normalization”: ON RRPs & MBS Go to Zero, Reserves Drop a Lot, Slower QT Reduces Risk of “Accidents,” SRF Calms Repo Market, Future QE without Increasing the Balance Sheet).QT by category:

• Treasury securities: -$61 billion in February, -$1.14 trillion from peak in June 2022, to $4.63 trillion, the lowest since December 2020. QT has removed 35% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasury securities that QE had added during the pandemic. Treasury notes (2- to 10-year securities) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year securities) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS. How Treasury bills fit into QT. These short-term securities (1 month to 1 year), now at $209 billion, are included in the $4.63 trillion of Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet. The Fed lets them roll off (doesn’t replace them when they mature) if not enough longer-term Treasury securities mature to get to the $60-billion monthly cap. As long as the Fed has T-bills, the roll-off of Treasury securities can reach the cap of $60 billion every month. At the current pace, the Fed will run out of T-bills in July 2025, which is when the Treasury roll-off would slow naturally as fewer securities of the by then much reduced pile will mature every month.
• Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$12 billion in February, -$334 billion from the peak, to $2.40 trillion, the lowest since August 2021. The Fed has now shed 25% of the MBS it had added during pandemic QE. The Fed only holds government-backed MBS, and taxpayers carry the credit risk. MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. But the market for existing home sales is frozen and sales have plunged, and fewer mortgages were paid off. In addition, mortgage refinancing has collapsed. All of this dramatically slowed the pass-through principal payments to MBS holders, and so the MBS are coming off the balance sheet only at a glacial pace that’s far below the $35-billion cap.
• Bank liquidity facilities. Discount Window: $1.8 billion. Roughly in this range since July 2023, and down from $153 billion during the bank panic in March 2023. The Discount Window is the Fed’s classic liquidity supply to banks. The Fed currently charges banks 5.5% in interest on these loans, and demands collateral at market value, which is expensive money for banks, and so they don’t use this facility unless they need to. The rate is one of the policy rates that the FOMC sets during its policy meetings.

Lawler: Some Thoughts on Quantitative Easing and Quantitative Tightening - This is a technical note from housing economist Tom Lawler and will likely have an impact on mortgage rates. It has now been well over a year since the Federal Reserve began its “quantitative tightening.” The overall size of the Fed’s balance sheet is down by about $1.4 trillion from its peak, with the bulk of that decline coming from 3/22/23 to 2/28/23 ($1.167 trillion). Some analysts have argued that this “QT” represents a reversal from the previous (and massive) “QE” (quantitative easing) the Fed undertook in earlier years, and as such monetary policy is significantly “tighter” than the level of the Federal funds rate. In one very important perspective, however, that is absolutely not the case. To understand why I say this, one must understand what the “QE” policy entailed. Under QE the Federal Reserve purchased large quantities of long-term fixed rate assets (mainly Treasuries and agency MBS), “funded” by creating very short term bank reserves/deposits at the Federal Reserve. These reserves represent liabilities of the government, just as Treasuries (and for all intents and purposes agency MBS) represent liabilities of the government. In essence, then, what QE did was significantly alter the maturity profile of government liabilities to the private sector, replacing longer-term liabilities with shorter-term liabilities. One of the purposes of QE was to put downward pressure on longer term interest rates (including mortgage rates), which the Fed viewed as stimulus needed, especially when the Federal funds rate was at its “lower bound.”A “reversal” of QE, then, would involve the Fed selling longer-term government obligations and reducing shorter-term government obligations (bank reserves/deposits). But that is not what has happened under QT. The Fed has sold virtually no agency MBS and virtually no longer-term Treasury securities. Rather, the Fed has not replaced agency MBS principal pay downs with new MBS purchases and has not fully replaced maturing Treasury securities with new Treasury securities (though the Fed has still purchased Treasury securities.) As a result, most of the decline in the Fed’s balance sheet has involved a decline in very short-term (maturing) government obligations owned by the Fed, combined with a decline in very short-term Fed obligations (bank reserves) to the private sector.If the Federal Reserve’s QT policy had been to “reverse” QE, it would have involved selling longer-term Treasury securities and agency MBS – thus increasing the amount of long-term government obligations held by the private sector – while at the same time reducing very short-term bank deposits/reserves at the Fed – thus reducing the amount of very short-term government obligations held by the private sector. Just as QE appeared to put downward pressure on long-term US interest rates (though estimates of by how much vary considerably), a “full reversal” QT policy would have put upward pressure on long-term US interest rates (which so far has not been the case.) Focusing now first just on Treasuries, below is a table showing end-of-year marketable Treasuries securities outstanding and the weighted average maturity of marketable Treasury securities outstanding, as well as marketable Treasuries securities held by the Fed and the WAM of Fed Treasury securities. (Note: Fed holdings are the last Wednesday of December, and not year-end, as the data are reported weekly. Also, the totals exclude “inflation compensation” from TIPS.)Also calculated are (1) marketable Treasury securities held by the private sector along with the WAM; and (2) marketable Treasury securities plus Fed bank/reserves/deposits held by the public “created” solely by Fed Treasury purchases. (Other factors also affected Fed reserves, but I am only focusing here on the impact of Fed Treasury purchases.)There are a few things worth noting. First, of course, marketable Treasury debt outstanding has soared, both in absolute terms and relative to the size of the economy. Marketable TDO was over 94% of Q4 GDP at the end 2023, up from 30.7% at the end of 2007.Second, the average maturity of TDO has increased significantly (with the exception of 2020).Third, the net effect of Fed Treasury purchases and reserves created by Treasury purchases on Government Obligations owned by the private sector has been to reduce the average maturity of such obligations over 1.5 years, which is pretty sizable, and certainly suggests that Fed activity resulted in lower longer term interest rates than would have been the case in the absence of Fed activity. Now let’s look at MBS. Below is a table showing Agency MBS outstanding Agency MBS held by the public, and Agency MBS held by the private sector. (Again, the Fed holdings are as of the last Wednesday in December).The Fed’s share of total Agency MBS outstanding hit a year-end high of 32% at the end of 2021 and was still above 27% at the end of last year. Again, Fed MBS purchases essentially involved taking longer-maturity fixed-rate MBS held by the public and “replacing” them with extremely short-term bank reserves/deposits at the Fed, thus reducing NOT the amount of government obligations held by the private sector, but significantly reducing the maturity/duration of government obligations held by the private sector. Computing the impact of Fed MBS purchases on the maturity of government obligations held by the private sector is more challenging for MBS than for Treasuries, as the expected weighted average maturity/duration of MBS are heavily dependent on where interest rates are relative to the interest rates on the mortgages backing MBS. For the end of 2023, the “expected” duration of MBS outstanding was about 5.55 years and the expected weighted average maturity was about 9 years (according to the Bloomberg MBS Index. The expected durations/WAM of Fed MBS holdings at the end of last year were longer than that for the MBS market as a whole, as the Fed’s share of very low-coupon 30-year MBS is much higher than is its share of the MBS market as a whole, and are probably around 6 years/9 years, respectively. Using those durations/WAMS, at the end of 2023 the Fed’s holdings of agency MBS has “converted” about $9 Trillion of privately-held government obligations (including, of course, the very short term bank reserves/deposits “created” from the Fed’s MBS purchases from a duration of about 5.55 years to a duration of about 3.91 years, and a weighted average maturity of from 8 years to about 5.5 years. Below is a table showing the impact of the weighted average maturity of privately held government obligations (only including reserves created by Fed purchases of Treasuries and Agency MBS) from the Fed’s holdings of Treasuries and Agency MBS. Also shown are projections though 2026 assuming (1) median projections of Treasury borrowings from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee January report; (2) Federal Reserve Treasury holdings projections from the same report (which assumes total holdings will decline more slowly this year and not decline much in 2005 and not at all in 2006); (3) reinvestment of maturing Treasuries sufficient to hit target holdings levels at an average maturity of 3.5 years; and (4) continued runoff of Agency MBS at the same pace. Note that the impact of Fed Treasury/MBS holdings on the average maturity of private sector general obligation holdings was to reduce the average maturity of private sector general obligations by a whopping 1.75 years. That “gap” should move down to about 1.2 years in 2026.Under these realistic scenarios (1) the private sector will have to “absorb” a lot of Treasuries and a modest amount of MBS; (2) the average maturity of debt the private sector will have to absorb will be longer, though not by a massive amount; and (3) the likely impact on the so-called “term-premium” – the extent to which long-term Treasuries exceed expected future short-term rates – will probably be “modest” but noticeable. I’ll have more later on this subject, but the “best guess” right now is the term premium on the 10-year Treasury will probably gradually increase from today’s “guess” of about 0 to about 50 bp by the end of 2026.

‘We’re doing the best of anybody’: Powell delivers sunny economic outlook to Congress - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded sunny about the outlook for the U.S. economy during two days of testimony on Capitol Hill, during which the risk of recession was barely mentioned and fears of an economic downturn had all but evaporated.“The economy is growing at a healthy, sustainable, solid, strong pace,” Powell said during a Thursday hearing of the Senate Banking Committee, where he noted that the U.S. is in better shape than any other major economy in the world.“We’re doing the best of anybody. We’ve got the strongest growth and the lowest inflation of the advanced economies,” he said.The economic data is backing up Powell’s optimism. Inflation, the target of the Fed’s rapid interest rate-tightening cycle over the past two years, has fallen to a 2.4-percent annual rate, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Unemployment is near historical lows at 3.7 percent, with the economy adding an average of 239,000 jobs a month since last summer. Gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to rise by2.5 percent in the first quarter, after climbing by 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 4.9 percent in the third.Companies have been raking in the dough, with corporate profits hitting 3.4 percent in the third quarter, according to Commerce Department data. Profits are still way above their pre-pandemic levels, rising above $3 trillion in the third quarter for only the second time on record. During the decade before the pandemic, profits hovered around $2 trillion per quarter in seasonally adjusted terms.Lawmakers in both parties seconded Powell’s outlook, going so far as to describe the economic conditions, which many expected to turn sour by this point, in miraculous terms. “You hear a lot of people talk about the American economic miracle,” Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) said during the Senate Banking hearing.“It’s important for people to recognize that these corporations are doing better than ever,” Sen.Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said.After three years of elevated inflation, public opinion on the economy has begun to turn around. A January opinion poll from Pew showed that 26 percent of respondents expect economic conditions will be better in a year, up from just 17 percent in April of last year. A little more than a quarter of registered voters said in a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday that the economy is good or excellent, up 6 points from July.Consumer sentiment held steady in January, according to a benchmark survey from the University of Michigan, but has seen substantial improvements over the past three months and has been generally trending upward since the middle of 2022.During the hearings this week, Powell faced criticism from Democrats on housing costs, which have been driven upward by the Fed’s rate hikes and are where the bulk of inflation currently remains. Republicans in both chambers grilled Powell on a proposed set of banking regulations known as Basel III that would increase capital requirements for banks, which are intended to make banks more stable following turmoil last year.Powell surprised many by saying that the international regulatory framework, which has been in the works for years, may be scaled back or even scrapped and reproposed altogether.The admission drew harsh criticism from financial firebrand Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).“Public reporting now says that you are driving efforts inside the Fed to weaken the capital rule. You even told the House Financial Services Committee representatives yesterday that you think it’s ‘very plausible’ that you withdraw the rule,” she said.Powell described the new rules Thursday as a “longer-run thing” and said he expects to make “material and broad changes” to them.

Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly" -- Fed's Beige Book – Excerpt: Economic activity increased slightly, on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks. Several reports cited heightened price sensitivity by consumers and noted that households continued to trade down and to shift spending away from discretionary goods. Activity in the leisure and hospitality sector varied by District and segment; while air travel was robust overall, demand for restaurants, hotels, and other establishments softened due to elevated prices, as well as to unusual weather conditions in certain regions. Manufacturing activity was largely unchanged, and supply bottlenecks normalized further. Nevertheless, delivery delays for electrical components continued. Ongoing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal did not generally have a notable impact on businesses during the reporting period, although some contacts reported rising pressures on international shipping costs. Several reports highlighted a pickup in demand for residential real estate in recent weeks, largely owing to some moderation in mortgage rates, but noted that limited inventories hindered actual home sales. Commercial real estate activity was weak, particularly for office space, although there were reports of robust demand for new data centers, industrial and manufacturing spaces, and large infrastructure projects. Loan demand was stable to down, and credit quality was generally healthy despite a few reports of rising delinquencies. The outlook for future economic growth remained generally positive, with contacts noting expectations for stronger demand and less restrictive financial conditions over the next 6 to 12 months. Employment rose at a slight to modest pace in most Districts. Overall, labor market tightness eased further, with nearly all Districts highlighting some improvement in labor availability and employee retention. Businesses generally found it easier to fill open positions and to find qualified applicants, although difficulties persisted attracting workers for highly skilled positions, including health-care professionals, engineers, and skilled trades specialists such as welders and mechanics. Wages grew further across Districts, although several reports indicated a slower pace of increase. Employee expectations of pay adjustments were reportedly more in line with historical averages. Price pressures persisted during the reporting period, but several Districts reported some degree of moderation in inflation. Contacts highlighted increases in freight costs and several insurance categories, including employer-sponsored health insurance. Nevertheless, businesses found it harder to pass through higher costs to their customers, who became increasingly sensitive to price changes. The cost of many manufacturing and construction inputs, such as steel, cement, paper, and fuel, reportedly fell in recent weeks.

Beige Book Warns Consumer Spending Slowing Due To "Heightened Price Sensitivity", Sees Mounting CRE Fears -- One month after the lukewarm January Beige Book found "little or no change" In US economic activity, which in turn followed the fare more downbeat November Beige Book found which economic activity was "slowing", moments ago the Fed released the latest, March, Beige Book in which we find more green shoots glimmers as economic activity "increased slightly", on balance, since early January, with eight Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity, three others reporting no change, and one District noting a slight softening. Oddly enough, the Fed found a modest acceleration in economic activity even though "consumer spending, particularly on retail goods, inched down in recent weeks." To justify this assessment, the Fed mentioned several reports which cited heightened price sensitivity by consumers and noted that households continued to trade down and to shift spending away from discretionary goods. Taking a closer look at various economic segments, we find the following notable recent developments:

• Activity in the leisure and hospitality sector varied by District and segment; while air travel was robust overall, demand for restaurants, hotels, and other establishments softened due to elevated prices, as well as to unusual weather conditions in certain regions.
• Manufacturing activity was largely unchanged, and supply bottlenecks normalized further. Nevertheless, delivery delays for electrical components continued.
• Ongoing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal did not generally have a notable impact on businesses during the reporting period, although some contacts reported rising pressures on international shipping costs.
• Several reports highlighted a pickup in demand for residential real estate in recent weeks, largely owing to some moderation in mortgage rates, but noted that limited inventories hindered actual home sales.
• Commercial real estate activity was weak, particularly for office space, although there were reports of robust demand for new data centers, industrial and manufacturing spaces, and large infrastructure projects.
• Loan demand was stable to down, and credit quality was generally healthy despite a few reports of rising delinquencies.
• Unlike the recent ISM reports, both mfg and services, the Fed found that employment "rose at a slight to modest pace in most Districts"while labor market tightness eased further, with nearly all Districts highlighting some improvement in labor availability and employee retention. Some more labor market details:
• Businesses generally found it easier to fill open positions and to find qualified applicants, although difficulties persisted attracting workers for highly skilled positions, including health-care professionals, engineers, and skilled trades specialists such as welders and mechanics.
• Wages grew further across Districts, although several reports indicated a slower pace of increase. Employee expectations of pay adjustments were reportedly more in line with historical averages

And in bad news for those expecting a soft landing, the Fed cautioned that price pressures persisted during the reporting period, although several Districts reported some degree of moderation in inflation. Furthermore, while contacts highlighted increases in freight costs and several insurance categories, including employer-sponsored health insurance, businesses found it harder to pass through higher costs to their customers, who became increasingly sensitive to price changes. The good news is that the cost of many manufacturing and construction inputs, such as steel, cement, paper, and fuel, reportedly fell in recent weeks. Looking ahead, the Fed said that "the outlook for future economic growth remained generally positive, with contacts noting expectations for stronger demand and less restrictive financial conditions over the next 6 to 12 months." Boy are they in for a surprise. Turning to the specific regional Feds, we found these summaries notable:

• Boston: Economic activity increased at a slow pace, and employment gains were modest. Output prices increased slightly, and wage growth held steady at a moderate pace. Residential realtors expressed growing optimism as both property listings and pending home sales increased. Uncertainty persisted concerning the fate of maturing office property loans, but the outlook for the sector did not worsen.
• New York: Regional economic activity flattened after a period of sustained weakness. Labor market conditions remained solid as employment grew slightly and wage growth picked up to a moderate pace. Labor demand and labor supply continued to come into better balance. Consumer spending declined modestly. The pace of selling price increases remained modest.
• Philadelphia: Business activity resumed a slight decline during the current Beige Book period—as it had for most of 2023. Employment grew slightly, and labor availability improved. Wage and price inflation subsided further, but housing affordability continues to squeeze consumers, especially those in lower-income households. Generally, sentiment improved, but firms remained cautious with subdued expectations for future growth.
• Cleveland: District business activity increased slightly. Some firms noted increased labor availability, reduced turnover, and easing wage pressures. Cost and price pressures changed little. Some manufacturers raised prices to cover higher costs, while some restauranteurs planned to absorb them. Business services firms continued to raise rates based on market conditions.
• Richmond: The regional economy saw little growth, overall. Consumer spending softened slightly as poor weather conditions over the last several weeks led to reduced sales. Imports and shipments of consumer goods picked up as retailers replenished inventories. Domestic manufacturing softened, however. Real estate market activity improved slightly. Nonfinancial service demand was unchanged. Employment rose and price growth was unchanged, keeping inflation moderately elevated.
• Atlanta: Economic activity was little changed. Labor markets and wage pressures eased. Nonlabor costs moderated, on balance. Consumers remained cost conscious, and higher prices squeezed household budgets. Travel and tourism remained strong. Home sales declined. Commercial real estate conditions slowed. Transportation activity was mixed. Manufacturing slowed somewhat. Overall loan demand declined.
• Chicago: Economic activity increased modestly. Employment increased modestly; nonbusiness contacts saw a modest increase in activity; business spending increased slightly; manufacturing activity was flat; and construction and real estate and consumer spending declined slightly. Prices and wages rose moderately, while financial conditions tightened modestly. Prospects for 2024 farm income deteriorated some.
• St. Louis: Economic activity has increased slightly since our previous report. Contacts reported that consumer demand slowed beyond seasonal norms. While labor markets remain tight overall, an increasing number of firms reported being fully staffed or overstaffed relative to consumer demand. Price growth has slowed in recent months. Contacts reported a mixed outlook for the coming year, although the outlook has improved since mid-December.
• Minneapolis: District economic activity was up slightly. Employment grew some, but labor demand softened. Wage pressures continued to moderate, and prices rose modestly. Consumer spending declined slightly, thanks to slow winter tourism. Commercial construction remained slow, but some markets saw single-family activity improve. Manufacturing, mining, and energy activity increased.
• Kansas City: Economic activity in the Tenth District was stable. Job gains were modest, and wage growth, while elevated, was tied closer to worker performance. Price sensitivity rose among consumers, even as prices rose moderately. Commercial real estate contacts indicated skepticism around recent appraisals of property valuation, not wanting to be in a position of trying to "catch a falling knife."
• Dallas: Economic activity expanded modestly, with most sectors holding steady or experiencing slight to modest growth. Wage growth was moderate, and input cost and selling price growth was generally at or below average. Texas firms were more bullish on demand expectations than late last year, with more than half of the firms' expecting increases over the next six months. Outlooks overall were less pessimistic.
• San Francisco: Economic activity grew slightly, employment levels rose slightly, and price and wage growth eased. Retail sales were stable, and demand for services grew modestly. Demand for manufactured products changed little, and conditions in agriculture were stable. Real estate activity rose slightly overall. Financial sector conditions were little changed.

One particular highlight: The Atlanta Fed notes said that "commercial real estate conditions slowed", while the Kansas City Fed said that"Commercial real estate contacts indicated skepticism around recent appraisals of property valuation, not wanting to be in a position of trying to “catch a falling knife.”

Mulvaney: Does focus on the federal debt mean less spending is on the horizon? - It’s nice to see the federal debt finally starting to get some attention. One is sort of left to wonder why it took so long, but better late than never.Indeed, the debt has become a new cause celebre in financial circles. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan weighed in recently (which probably surprises no one), warning that the roughly $34 trillion in debt would precipitate a market “rebellion.” He warned that “it is a cliff (and) we’re going 60 mph toward it.” Some would say it’s more like 160 mph, but that is probably splitting hairs.The CEO of Bank of America was similarly earnest, encouraging us all to “get after” the problem, and “do something about it” rather than “admiring it.” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently encouraged us to have “an adult conversation,” about the topic. Even some professor no one has ever heard of said something about it last week. When major publications are printing the comments of unknown academics, then you know things must be getting serious.To all of them, I say: Welcome to the discussion. Glad you finally saw the light. Back in 2013 — while tea party deficit hawks were literally begging people to take the debt seriously — Wall Street was one of the loudest voices parroting big-spending Washington talking points about not using the debt ceiling for leverage in the spending debate. Phrases such as “We can’t afford not to raise the debt ceiling” were regular staples on financial talk shows. (Spoiler alert: Statements prefaced with the words “We can’t afford not to…” are a leading cause of crippling debt.)While Powell’s input is certainly welcome, he inherits a post which, when held by Janet Yellen, was incessantly cheerleading for more government spending. Just prior to her accession to the chair, in 2013, Yellen commented that fiscal policy was a “headwind,” as she bemoaned “austerity” in federal fiscal policy. At that time, quantitative easing and a zero-interest-rate-policy dramatically but only temporarily reduced the cost of the money the federal government was borrowing. How much easier to borrow-and-spend, it seems, when that borrowing costs practically zero. The deficit in 2013, by the way, was roughly $680 billion. And that was the first year our total debt exceeded our total national income. That year, we borrowed about 25 cents of every dollar we spent, Which is almost exactly the same as this year. The problem is that that looks outrageously unlikely right now. While corporate leaders and some academics may have woken up to the threats the debt presents, most voters have not. Recent polling shows that the debt is still in the low single digits when it comes to priorities for voters. That places it behind inflation, immigration, health care national security, jobs — even climate change.

Congress unveils long-awaited funding bills ahead of shutdown threat Congressional leaders on Sunday finally revealed long-awaited bipartisan bills to fund parts of the government for most of the year, setting off a bicameral sprint to avert looming shutdown threat in less than a week. The weekend rollout entails six full-year spending bills to fund a slew of agencies until early fall, including the departments of Agriculture, Interior, Transportation (DOT), Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Veterans Affairs (VA), Justice (DOJ), Commerce and Energy. The 1,050-page bipartisan package includes more than $450 billion in funding for fiscal year 2024. Lawmakers have until Friday to pass the legislation or risk a partial government shutdown under a stopgap plan President Biden signed into law this week to buy more time for spending talks. The package sets aside nearly $100 billion for the HUD and DOT funding bill, with Democrats highlighting increases for the Federal Aviation Administration, the Maritime Administration and Homeless Assistance Grants, among other areas. The bill also includes over $32 billion for tenant-based Section 8 vouchers, up $2.1 billion increase from the previous fiscal year, as members on both sides say more funding is needed to counter rising rents. At the same time, House Republicans say the bill cuts more than $3.2 billion across 19 DOT and HUD grant programs when compared to the previous year’s fiscal levels. The bill provides more than $135 billion in nondefense discretionary funding for the annual VA and military construction funding measure and more than $172 billion in mandatory funding. The bill also includes funding increases for VA Medical Care, the Benefits Administration, as well as medical and prosthetics research. The Sunday rollout comes as Congress falls behind in finishing up its funding work for fiscal year 2024, which began five months ago. The GOP-led House and Democratic-led Senate entered negotiations with vastly different bills this year, as House Republicans pursued much more partisan measures with steep cuts to government funding that went beyond budget caps agreed to as part of the debt limit deal brokered between President Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) last year. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said upon the package’s unveiling on Sunday that the party both sides were able to reach a funding compromise that will “the government open without cuts or poison pill riders.” However, Republicans are already claiming wins in the funding package, touting cuts to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation in the funding package. Republicans highlighted some changes notched in the package, including measures they said would cut endangered species listing activities at U.S. Fish and Wildlife and another aimed at protecting guns rights of veterans seeking assistance with benefits. They’ve also cheered changes aimed at bolstering oversight of foreign ownership of agricultural land and preventing the “sale of oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to China,” and funding boosts to the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) to partly support efforts tackling fentanyl, Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) office said. “Even with divided government and a historically small House majority, House Republicans have worked hard to successfully move the policy and spending priorities of the federal government away from the previous Pelosi-Schumer FY23 appropriations, and American taxpayers will benefit from it,” Johnson said in a statement. “This legislation forbids the Department of Justice from targeting parents exercising their right to free speech before school boards, while it blocks the Biden Administration from stripping Second Amendment rights from veterans,” he said.

Conservative Heritage Action opposes spending package --Heritage Action, the advocacy arm of the conservative Heritage Foundation think tank, took an official position on Tuesday in opposition to the bipartisan spending package, which must pass by the end of the week to avert a partial government shutdown. In a statement, Heritage Action Executive Vice President Ryan Walker urged lawmakers to oppose the six-bill spending package, which he described as “full of tone-deaf earmarks and budget gimmicks masquerading as cuts, with no attempts to defund Biden policies facilitating the border crisis.” “Our country is $34 trillion in debt, and taxpayers will spend $870 billion on our interest payments alone this year. The time for barely noticeable budget cuts on the margins is over, and this minibus package fails to meet the moment,” Walker said in a statement. The six-bill spending package includes more than $450 billion in funding for fiscal year 2024. It includes funding for a slew of agencies until early fall, including the departments of Agriculture, Interior, Transportation (DOT), Housing and Urban Development (HUD), Veterans Affairs (VA), Justice (DOJ) and Commerce and Energy. While the package was initially expected to pass easily, the “minibus” is now meeting some opposition from Trump-aligned conservatives in both chambers and faces a rocky path in the Senate. ADVERTISING Heritage Action now is making the spending package a “key vote” for lawmakers, notifying them that their votes will affect their overall score on the “Heritage Action Scorecard,” which the think tank says “shows voters and activists how conservative lawmakers are by comparing their policy positions to those of Heritage Action.” “Conservatives have repeatedly sounded the alarm about our bloated balance sheet and wide-open border for months. But lawmakers disregarded those warnings, and after almost a year of negotiations produced a minibus barely distinguishable from the unacceptable bills of the past,” Walker said. The spending package was unveiled on Sunday and comes as Congress again falls behind in finishing its funding work for fiscal year 2024, which began five months ago. The GOP-led House and Democratic-led Senate entered negotiations with vastly different bills this year, but emerged with a package that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said will keep “the government open without cuts or poison pill riders.” Even though House Republicans pushed for much more partisan measures with steep cuts to government funding, many still lauded the conservative wins of the spending package, soon after it was announced. “Even with divided government and a historically small House majority, House Republicans have worked hard to successfully move the policy and spending priorities of the federal government away from the previous Pelosi-Schumer FY23 appropriations, and American taxpayers will benefit from it,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a statement about the package. “This legislation forbids the Department of Justice from targeting parents exercising their right to free speech before school boards, while it blocks the Biden Administration from stripping Second Amendment rights from veterans,” he added.

US Senate passes spending bill, averts imminent shutdown (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate narrowly averted a partial government shutdown on Friday, as the chamber approved spending legislation for several government agencies just hours before current funding was due to expire. By a bipartisan vote of 75-22, the Senate approved a $467.5 billion spending package that will fund agriculture, transportation, housing, energy, veterans and other programs through the end of the fiscal year on Sept. 30. The package now heads to Democratic President Joe Biden to sign into law. Funding for those programs was due to expire at midnight. The vote partially resolves a bitter, months-long battle over government spending that at one point left the Republican-controlled House of Representatives leaderless for three weeks. "To folks who worry that divided government means nothing ever gets done, this bipartisan package says otherwise," Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said ahead of the vote. The package easily passed the Republican-controlled House of Representatives earlier this week. But action in the Senate was delayed as some conservative Republicans pressed for votes on immigration and other topics. They all failed. Congress must still work out a deal on a much larger package of spending bills, covering the military, homeland security, health care and other services. Funding for those programs expires on March 22. Taken together, the two packages would cost $1.66 trillion. Far-right Republicans had pushed for deeper spending cuts to tame a $34.5 trillion national debt. All these measures were supposed to have been enacted into law by last Oct. 1, the start of the 2024 fiscal year. While Congress rarely meets that deadline, the debate this year has been unusually chaotic. Congress so far has had to approve four temporary funding bills to keep agency operations limping along at their previous year's levels. The spending bills include $241.3 million in earmarks - local projects secured by individual lawmakers - requested by Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein. She died on September 29, 2023, two days before the start of the fiscal year.

"A Pork Fest Of Epic Proportions": Congress Passes Spending Package To Avert Shutdown The Senate passed six government funding bills on March 8 to avoid an impending shutdown deadline that was poised to activate at midnight later that night. Senators approved the funding package 75–22 early in the evening on March 8 after hours of debate. Democrats pushed for a faster vote, while Republicans proposed several amendments to the funding package that all inevitably failed. After the House of Representatives passed its measure on March 6, only the Senate was left to pass its funding bills before they were all sent to President Joe Biden to be signed into law. In addition to the March 8 deadline, there is another looming shutdown deadline on March 22.The bills passed by Democrats and Republicans, including a second set of bills ahead of the March 22 deadline, will get Congress one step closer to funding vital government programs for the remainder of the fiscal year.The spending package funds programs including the departments of Veterans Affairs, Energy, Agriculture, Transportation, Commerce, Justice, Interior, military construction, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Housing and Urban Development, and other federal programs.The package was touted by both Republicans and Democrats.The Senate bills would also provide critical support for veteran medical care, hiring new air traffic controllers, and scientific research programs for the United States’ economic competitiveness with China.“This is an outcome both parties can be proud of because we have found a way to put the needs of our country first,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on the Senate floor on March 8. “Today’s bipartisan agreement gives us momentum and space to finish the remaining appropriation bills by March 22. Of course, it’s going to take both sides working together to keep that momentum alive,” he added.House Republicans under Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) leadership passed the House funding package on March 7 with bipartisan support from Democrats. The final vote was 339–85, which included two Democrats and 83 Republicans voting in opposition to the spending bills.That 1,050-page package of bills from the House funds the same list of departments and government programs as the Senate version.However, it also reduces funding for several programs, which Mr. Johnson referred to as “sharp cuts to agencies and programs critical to President Biden’s agenda” in a news release on March 3. Those include 10 percent spending reductions for the Environmental Protection Agency, a 6 percent reduction for the FBI, and a 7 percent reduction for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives.Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) was critical of the spending package, calling it a “pork fest of epic proportions.”“It also is sort of the grease that eases in billions and trillions of other dollars because you get people to buy into the total package by giving them a little bit of pork for their town, a little bit of pork for their donors,” he added.

President Biden signs $460 billion spending bill to avert a partial government shutdown - President Joe Biden on Saturday signed a $460 billion spending bill into law, averting a partial government shutdown that would have taken effect this weekend. This partial budget deal covers funding for six major areas of government, which encompass military and veterans affairs departments, agriculture, commerce, justice, transportation, housing and urban development and energy. On Friday evening, the Senate had voted 75 to 22 to approve the package after the House passed it earlier this week. The agreement marks a step forward in the push to secure a permanent budget plan for the rest of the fiscal year, which started Oct. 1.The other six appropriations bills that keep the rest of the government funded are due to expire March 22. This is the fourth time this fiscal year that Congress has had to pass a short-term spending bill to keep the government funded and avert a shutdown. Democrats have been pushing for the continued full funding of a special food assistance program for women, infants and children. They also secured wins on rent assistance and pay for infrastructure employees like air traffic controllers and railway inspectors. Meanwhile, Republicans also considered the first half of funding package as a win as they declared victories on veterans' gun ownership and funding cuts to government agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency, the FBI and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.

Victoria Nuland, Notorious Russia Hawk, Resigning from State Department - Victoria Nuland, a notorious Russia hawk most known for her role in the 2014 coup in Ukraine, will be retiring from the State Department in the coming weeks, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Tuesday. Nuland has worked as the under-secretary of state for political affairs since 2021 and served as the acting deputy secretary of state for a few months until the position was filled by Kurt Campbell, a notorious China hawk. Nuland is the wife of Robert Kagan, one of the most influential American neoconservatives, and has worked for multiple administrations. In the George W. Bush administration, she served as deputy foreign policy advisor to then-Vice President Dick Cheney from 2003-2005 and later as the US representative to NATO. In the Obama administration, Nuland worked as a State Department spokeswoman and then as the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs, from where she supported the Maidan protests in Ukraine that led to the overthrow of former President Victor Yanukovych.A leaked phone call between Nuland and then-US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt that was published in February 2014, not long before Yanukovych fled Ukraine, revealed the two US officials were discussing who should be in the next Ukrainian government.The 2014 coup sparked the civil war in the Donbas, led to Russia absorbing Crimea, and NATO providing training and other kinds of support for Ukraine. These factors and others ultimately led to the February 2022 Russian invasion.In her current role, Nuland championed the proxy war in Ukraine and has been responsible for some of themost hawkish and reckless rhetoric coming from the Biden administration. In a recent interview with CNN, Nuland vowed the US would continue to “tighten the noose” on Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of her pitch for new Ukraine aid despite the reality that Ukraine is losing badly on the battlefield.Nuland will be temporarily replaced by John Bass, another career US government official who currently serves as the under-secretary of state for management. Bass was previously the US ambassador to Afghanistan during the withdrawal, and according to his biography on the State Department’s website, he also worked on the staff of former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Victoria Nuland Leaving Post While Ukraine On The Ropes, US Policy In Shambles -- Ukraine forces are in retreat and the war is going badly from NATO's perspective, Biden's $60+ billion for Kiev is halted in the House, and the Democratic incumbent's reelection chances are looking grim in November. And as if confirming there's no light at the end of the tunnel, Victoria Nuland is stepping down as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs of the United States. The State Department announced Tuesday morning she is retiring. The Associated Press announcement interestingly enough underscores her hawkish legacy on Russia and Ukraine. "Victoria Nuland, the third-highest ranking U.S. diplomat and frequent target of criticism for her hawkish views on Russia and its actions in Ukraine, will leave her post this month, the State Department said Tuesday," it wrote.Her boss Antony Blinken said something a bit ironic on the occasion of unveiling her departure: "But it’s Toria’s leadership on Ukraine that diplomats and students of foreign policy will study for years to come." Indeed, many already know her as Victoria-'Fuck the EU'-Nuland and for essentially running foreign policy in Europe, stretching back through the Obama years as then Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, where many of the problems which sparked the disastrous and tragic Russia-Ukraine war were first set in motion.According to more praise from Secretary Blinken:"Her efforts have been indispensable to confronting Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, marshaling a global coalition to ensure his strategic failure, and helping Ukraine work toward the day when it will be able to stand strongly on its own feet – democratically, economically, and militarily."Of course, Blinken's boldly declaring Russia's "strategic failure" seems a bit forced and premature (to put it mildly), considering too that even from a propaganda angle leading NATO countries are currently very much on the defensive. Things simply aren't going well in NATO-land, by many accounts.

Israeli Minister Gantz Arrives in US on Trip Not Approved By Netanyahu - Israeli War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz arrived in the US on Sunday on a trip that was not approved by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.According to Israeli media, Netanyahu wasn’t aware of the trip until Gantz informed the prime minister of his plans on Friday in a tense phone call. A source told the Israeli news site Ynet that Netanyahu “made it clear to Minister Gantz that the State of Israel only has one prime minister.”Gantz, the leader of Israel’s National Unity party, is scheduled to meet with Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday. In a speech on Sunday, Harris called for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza but quickly clarified that she meant a six-week truce, which is on the table as part of a potential hostage deal.White House officials told The New York Times that Gantz and Harris are expected to discuss hostage negotiations and the potential for a temporary ceasefire. Israel boycotted the latest hostage deal talks that were held in Cairo on Sunday.Gantz is also set to hold talks with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, and Brett McGurk, President Biden’s top Middle East official on the National Security Council.Gantz is portrayed as Netanyahu’s moderate opposition, but Gantz supports the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. He recently threatened that Israel will invade the southern Gaza city of Rafah, which is packed with 1.5 million Palestinians, if Hamas doesn’t release Israeli hostages by Ramadan, which begins on March 10.Any full-scale assault on Rafah would incur huge civilian casualties as most of the Palestinians sheltering there are living in tents on the street. The US has given Israel the green light to kill civilians in the city since it won’t impose any consequences on Israel if it does and will continue to provide unconditional military support.

US looking into maritime corridor to get aid to Gaza: Pentagon -- The U.S. is looking into setting up a maritime corridor to get aid into Gaza via sea amid a deepening humanitarian crisis, the Pentagon’s top spokesperson said Tuesday. “In coordination with the U.S. interagency and international partners, we are actively reviewing options for a maritime corridor for humanitarian assistance into Gaza, including potential commercial and contracted options,” press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters. He wouldn’t speak to the options being reviewed but added that the U.S. military “would be only in a supporting role” in providing aid, an effort headed by the U.S. Agency for International Development. “Were we to be involved in that, it would be in the form of unique DoD capabilities,” Ryder said. “We’ll continue to work with the interagency on what that might look like going forward.” The U.S., with the help of Jordan, has conducted two airdrops to get humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza, one on Saturday and one earlier on Tuesday, but the method is seen as costly and inefficient. U.S. C-130s dropped over 36,800 U.S. and Jordanian meal equivalents in northern Gaza in the latest effort, according to a statement from U.S. Central Command. U.S. officials have said they will continue to try to get assistance into Gaza, and further options being considered include a maritime corridor and pressing Israel to allow more aid trucks into the devastated Palestinian territory. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin earlier on Tuesday met with Israeli war cabinet minister Benny Gantz, where he “expressed strong concerns over the humanitarian situation in Gaza” and requested Gantz’s support in enabling more humanitarian assistance to get into the narrow strip of land, according to a Pentagon readout of the meeting.

Watch: Fuming AOC Drops F-Bomb On Activists Demanding She Call Gaza War 'Genocide' -In a viral video posted to social media, a visibly upset New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez scolded and dropped an f-bomb on a small contingent of pro-Palestinian activists who confronted her as she departed a Brooklyn movie theater on Monday afternoon. In addition to profanely reacting to the type of protest she's encouraged against her opponents, AOC also seemingly lied to her tormenters. The activists called out the leftist "Squad" member for failing to use the term "genocide" to refer to Israel's devastating, five-month-old invasion of Gaza. Launched in retaliation for the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion of southern Israel that led to the deaths of 1,139 Israelis and foreign nationals, "Operation Swords of Iron" has killed more than 30,000 Palestinians -- including more than 20,000 women and children -- according to the Gaza health ministry. Famine and disease are spreading, and emaciated children with sunken eyes are becoming an increasingly common and grisly sight. Over half of Gaza's more than 2 million residents have been forced from their homes. In December, the government of South Africa filed an 84-page genocide complaint against Israel with the International Court of Justice. In a January interim ruling, the court stopped short of declaring Israel's campaign a genocide -- yet -- but directed Israel to "take all measures within its power" to prevent acts of genocide. "You refuse to call it a genocide," said one of the activists. Wheeling around, AOC scolds one of them, a man, saying, "I need you to understand, this is not ok." When he replies, "It's not ok that you're not actively against it," AOC accuses him of "lying." "You haven't been calling it a genocide," chimes in a female activist as AOC and her fiancé, Riley Roberts, work their way down an escalator. "Don't tell me I'm lying. Just say it. Over 30,000 people are dead, AOC, can't you just say it for once?" As the activists continue confronting her as she walks down the sidewalk, AOC erupts, shouting, "You're gonna cut this and you're going to clip this so that it's completely out of context! I already said that it was! And y'all are just going to pretend that it wasn't, over and over again. It's fucked up, man! And you're not helping these people! You're not helping them!" When Roberts accuses the activists of "bullying," the female activist replies, "We're not bullying, we're talking to an elected public official." It's pretty rich that AOC would tell non-violent activists that their tactics are "fucked up."

On Palestine And The Worthlessness Of The Western Liberal by Caitlin Johnstone -- There’s an infuriatingly common type of liberal who purports to oppose Israel’s actions in Gaza while also saying they support “Israel’s right to exist”, as though Israel’s existence is somehow separable from its genocidal murderousness. This is a state that literally cannot exist without nonstop violence and tyranny, as demonstrated by its entire unbroken history since its inception. It was set up as a settler-colonialist outpost for western imperialism from the very beginning, and that’s exactly what it’s been ever since. History has conclusively established that it is not possible to drop an artificial ethnostate on top of an already-existing population in which the pre-existing population is legally subordinate to the new one without tremendous amounts of warfare, police violence, mass displacement, apartheid, disenfranchisement and oppression. This is not actually debatable. It is a settled matter (no pun intended). Is it possible to have a nation in which Jews are welcomed and kept safe? Of course. Many such nations exist outside of Israel, and the majority of the world’s Jews live in them. What isn’t possible is a Jewish ethnostate in historic Palestine in which the pre-existing population is treated as less than the Jewish population that does not necessarily entail nonstop violence, tyranny and abuse. This is self-evidently a direct contradiction in goals, but it’s what the liberals we’re discussing here pretend to believe is a reasonable possibility. There absolutely could be a state in that region wherein Palestinians and Jews coexist peacefully, but it would be so wildly different from present-day Israel that you can’t pretend it would be the same state as the one we see now. It would entail such a radically dramatic overhaul of Israeli civilization, such a comprehensive dismantling of deeply ingrained racism, such a drastic restructuring of governmental and living systems, so much labor, sacrifice, humility, inner work and reparations, that to call it by the same name as the state that presently exists would be nonsensical. And that isn’t what the liberals in question are talking about instituting when they say they oppose Israel’s atrocities in Gaza but “support Israel’s right to exist”. What they are saying is they want Israel to remain the unjust and tyrannical apartheid state that is has always been, but for the killing to stop. They want the injustice to continue, but they want its most overt manifestations to stop causing them cognitive dissonance. They want the status quo, without the murderous savagery that is necessary for the status quo’s existence. They want to pretend they live in an imaginary fantasyland where such a thing is possible. In order to make this fantasy seem more believable, liberals will pretend that the violence we are seeing can be blamed entirely on the Netanyahu government, as though things would be fine without Bibi in office despite the fact that Israel’s abusiveness began long before he showed up, and despite the fact that Israel’s atrocities in Gaza have the approval of the vast majority of Israelis. Israeli violence isn’t the product of Netanyahu, Netanyahu is the product of Israeli violence. He built his political career upon sentiments that were already in place. They’ll also tell themselves fairy tales about a two-state solution to make their position seem more valid, ignoring inconvenient facts like that Israeli officials have been openly saying a Palestinian state will never happen, that Israeli Jewsoverwhelmingly oppose such a measure, and that Israeli settlements are being built in Palestinian territories with the explicit goal of making a future two-state solution impossible. Liberals subscribe to these fantasies as a kind of cognitive pacifier, which allows them to relax and feel okay with themselves despite the fact that they’re not actually endorsing any viable path toward justice. And to be clear this isn’t just what liberals do with regard to Israel-Palestine; it’s their whole entire position on everything. On every issue their position is little more than “Maintain the status quo, but make it pretty and psychologically comfortable for me.” They never want to do what’s right, they just want to feel like they are right. Theirs is an imperialist, militarist, tyrannical oligarchic ideology with a bunch of feel-good social justice bumper stickers slapped on top of it. A boot on your neck and a flower in its hair. That’s who liberals are. It’s who they’ve always been. Phil Ochs released the song “Love Me, I’m a Liberal” in 1966, and they haven’t changed one iota ever since. The issues change, their arguments change, but their “maintain the status quo but let me feel nice about it” values system has remained exactly the same for generations.

Air-Dropped Aid Crushes 5 Palestinians to Death in Gaza - (video) The parachutes of air-dropped pallets of aid failed, causing the large objects to plummet to the ground in northern Gaza, killing five. The US and several other countries have dropped a token amount of aid onto northern Gaza because Israel is only allowing a trickle of aid to enter the Strip by land. A witness speaking with Al-Jazeera explained the botched aid drop caused a building to collapse, killing some of the people sheltering inside. “People were waiting for the drops when they noticed they were coming in fast. So a group of people took cover in a construction site,” he said. “One of the packages fell atop the site, causing it to collapse, killing and wounding people inside. I rushed to help the people inside when I realized my cousin was among them. He is now dead.” Palestinian health officials and an eye witness who spoke with CBS News said that the aid crate killed five people, including two children, on Friday morning in northern Gaza . Multiple videos have also shown pallets of aid that have fallen into the Mediterranean Sea floating on the surface where some appear to tangle and plummet down. Aid groups have criticized the air-dropped aid into Gaza as insufficient. The head of the Norwegian Refugee Council humanitarian group, Jan Egeland, explained earlier this week that “Airdrops are expensive, haphazard, and usually lead to the wrong people getting the aid.” Gaza-based Journalist Abdel Qader Al Sabbah told CNN that the air drops of aid are “useless” and are causing more chaos. “You are lucky if you even get a hold of these meals… I don’t even bother to go searching for these aid parcels because people are always fighting over them,” he said. Palestinians say they want Biden to stop sending Israel bombs, not aid. Hassan Maslah, a Palestinian in Khan Younis, described his feelings as he dug through the rubble caused by an Israeli air strike. “All these American weapons are killing our kids, and killing us wherever we go. We don’t need aid from them, we need them to stop the killing, stop the death,” he said. A Palestinian discussing the shipments on social media lamented that the nutrition information and instructions were in English without an Arabic translation. Rafah-based journalist Hani Mahmoud explained there was a growing sense in Gaza that even aid is becoming deadly. “This is the tragedy people are experiencing in the north of Gaza.” He continued, “Not only are they confronted with the lack of food and medical supplies, but as they wait for packages of food they are either targeted by the Israeli military or killed by a non-functional parachute.” Last week, the Israeli military opened fire on Palestinians near an aid shipment. Over 100 Palestinians were killed and about 700 injured. A report released by Refugees International on Thursday described the situation in Gaza as “apocalyptic.” “Our research makes clear that conditions inside of Gaza are apocalyptic,” the report said. “After five months of war, Palestinians are struggling to find adequate food, water, shelter, and basic medicine. Famine-level hunger is already widespread and worsening.” At least 20 people in Gaza have starved to death because of the Israeli blockade of aid. Still, President Biden has refused to use Washington’s significant leverage over Tel Aviv to allow more aid into the Strip.

Biden Announces 'Emergency' Military Mission to Establish Port in Gaza for Aid - President Biden announced during the State of the Union on Thursday night that he ordered a military mission to establish a port in Gaza to get more aid into the Strip as Palestinians are starving to death and Israel is still restricting aid.The drastic measure is being ordered instead of Biden using the enormous leverage he has over Israel to pressure them to allow in more aid or halt the genocidal campaign. The US also recently started conducting airdrops of aid into Gaza, which aid groups have slammed as a public relations ploy.“Tonight, I’m directing the US military to lead an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast that can receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine, and temporary shelters,” Biden said.US officials claimed to Axios that the pier in the sea off the Gaza coast will allow hundreds of aid trucks to enter the Strip per day. But the pier will take weeks to build, and Palestinians are already starving to death at a rapid rate.Biden insisted there would be “no US boots on the ground.” But the plan does still run the risk of US personnel being targeted off the coast, which could lead to a major escalation of US involvement in the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians.The aid will pass through Cyprus before heading to the pier and will be subject to Israeli inspections, which means some could be turned away.CNN reported that some of the items most frequently rejected by Israel include anesthetics and anesthesia machines, oxygen cylinders, ventilators, and water filtration systems. The CNN report said other items that have faced restrictions are dates, sleeping bags, medicines to treat cancer, water purification tablets, and maternity kits.Biden acknowledged in his speech that Israel has killed “thousands and thousands of innocent women and children” but gave no indication he was reconsidering his policy of unconditional military support for the slaughter.

Starving Children in Gaza 'Cannot Wait' Weeks for US Port, Aid Groups Say -- Leading humanitarian groups said Friday that starving people in Gaza, including more than a million children, are in need of immediate aid and can't afford to wait for the U.S. military to construct a port on the enclave's coast, a project that's expected to take weeks."Children in Gaza cannot wait to eat," said Jason Lee, country director for Save the Children in the occupied Palestinian territory. "They are already dying from malnutrition and saving their lives is a matter of hours or days—not weeks."At least 17 children have starved to death in Gaza, according to Defense for Children International – Palestine, and many more are currentlystruggling to survive.Condemning Israel's obstruction of ground-based aid deliveries as "a grave violation against children" and international law, Lee stressed Friday that "there is already a tried and tested system in place to effectively coordinate aid.""But trucks of food and medicines that could save lives are waiting at crossings, while children are starving just miles away," Lee continued. "Airdrops, with no on-the-ground coordination of who it reaches, and maritime corridors like the one announced yesterday, are no solutions to keep children alive. Neither are substitutes for unimpeded humanitarian assistance via the established land routes."U.S. President Joe Biden announced during his State of the Union address Thursday night that he has directed the nation's military to "lead an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the coast of Gaza that can receive large shipments carrying food, water, medicine, and temporary shelters."The president also said Israel, whose military is armed to the teeth with U.S. weaponry, "must do its part" by allowing "more aid into Gaza"—but did not threaten any consequences if the Netanyahu government refuses."Israel needs to facilitate rather than block the flow of supplies. This is not a logistics problem; it is a political problem."Ground deliveries into Gaza have plummeted in recent weeks as Israeli forces have attacked aid convoys and prevented trucks from entering and moving through the territory. A World Food Program (WFP) officialsaid earlier this week there's enough food to feed Gaza's "entire population" sitting just outside of the strip."We need land crossings, we need access to get it into Gaza, whether in the southern parts of Gaza or the northern part of Gaza because the situation is catastrophic. So having access is really our number one priority," said Samer AbdelJaber, WFP's director of emergency.The WFP has said aid airdrops—which Biden authorized last week—are a "last resort" and "will not avert famine." On Friday, aid packages dropped into Gaza by U.S. military planes killed five people and injured at least 10 others.Avril Benoît, executive director for Doctors Without Borders, arguedFriday that Biden's plan for a temporary port "is a glaring distraction from the real problem: Israel's indiscriminate and disproportionatemilitary campaign and punishing siege.""The food, water, and medical supplies so desperately needed by people in Gaza are sitting just across the border," said Benoît. "Israel needs to facilitate rather than block the flow of supplies. This is not a logistics problem; it is a political problem. Rather than look to the U.S. military to build a workaround, the U.S. should insist on immediate humanitarian access using the roads and entry points that already exist."Refugees International said in a report released Thursday that its research teams found Israel is engaged in "routine and arbitrary denial of legitimate humanitarian goods from entering Gaza," forcing aid convoys to undergo "a highly complicated" inspection process "without clear or consistent instructions." "Our research makes clear that conditions inside of Gaza are apocalyptic," the group said. "After five months of war, Palestinians are struggling to find adequate food, water, shelter, and basic medicine. Famine-level hunger is already widespread and worsening."

US Has Approved 100 Arms Deals for Israel Since October 7 to Support Gaza Slaughter - The Biden administration has secretly approved more than 100 separate Foreign Military Sales to Israel since October 7 to support the mass killing of Palestinians in Gaza, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday.It’s unclear how many of the sales are being funded by the US, but many could be, as Israel receives $3.3 billion in annual Foreign Military Financing, a form of US military aid that gives foreign governments money to purchase US arms.Only two sales have been made public, one for $106 million worth of 120mm tank ammunition and one for$147.5 million in components needed to make 155mm artillery shells. The Biden administration drew criticism for the deals because they bypassed Congress to push them through as quickly as possible.US officials told the Post that there was no public debate for the other 100 deals because the dollar value fell under the threshold needed to inform Congress. Considering the vast number of arms sales in such a short period of time, making them low value was clearly an effort to keep the arms transfers out of the public eye as President Biden is under increasing scrutiny for supporting Israel’s genocidal campaign.The Post report said that US officials told Congress during a classified briefing that the hundreds of sales amounted to thousands of precision-guided munitions, small-diameter bombs, bunker busters, small arms, and other types of “lethal aid.”The exact number of bombs and other types of equipment the US has delivered to Israel since October 7 is not clear. The Wall Street Journal reported on December 1 that the US had provided Israel with 57,000 artillery shells and 15,000 bombs, including massive bunker busters, but that figure is likely much higher since the report was published over three months ago. The revelation from the Post comes as the Biden administration claims it’s pressuring Israel to allow more aid into Gaza, where children are starving to death and a major famine is imminent. But the US is not using any of its leverage over Israel as it continues to provide unconditional military aid for its military operations and starvation campaign.

US Officials Say 'Intelligence Gaps' Are to Blame for Failure Against Yemen's Houthis - US officials speaking to Financial Times said “intelligence gaps” are to blame for the failure to stop Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden that started in response to the US-backed Israeli massacre of Palestinians in Gaza.While the Pentagon has said it has hit hundreds of Houthi targets since the new bombing campaigns started on January 12, US officials say they can’t assess how much damage has been done to the Yemeni group’s capabilities. The report said the “extent of the damage is unclear because the US lacked a detailed assessment of the group’s capabilities before launching its bombing campaign.” The New York Times reported something similar a few days after the US bombing campaign started that said the US had difficulty finding targets because it hadn’t been collecting intelligence on the Houthis that much in recent years.The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, have also shown a resilience to bombing campaigns. The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against them from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became more of a capable fighting force during that time. The war killed at least 377,000 people, and more than half died of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.Since President Biden’s new unauthorized war against the Houthis started on January 12, the situation in the region has only escalated. The Houthis began targeting American and British commercial shipping and started regularly striking vessels. Previously, Ansar Allah’s forces were limiting their targets to Israel-linked shipping.The Houthis have been clear that the only way they would stop their attacks is if the Israeli onslaught in Gaza comes to an end. US officials recently acknowledged to CNN that they believe the Houthis would be true to their word. But instead of pressuring Israel to end its genocidal campaign, the US is considering escalating the situation even more by targeting Houthi leadership.

Pentagon Blames 'Intel Gap' For Failure To Stop Yemen's Red Sea Ops -- US defense officials have blamed "insufficient intelligence" for Washington's abortive airstrike campaign against Yemen, which started in mid-January and has so far failed to deter Yemen's Houthi armed forces from attacking US, UK, and Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea in support of Palestine. During a congressional hearing on US operations in the Red Sea last week, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for West Asia, Daniel B. Shapiro, revealed Washington "did not know" the full capacity of the Yemeni arsenal used for its operations in the Red Sea, adding that the White House was "working to gather that intelligence." He added that, while the Pentagon had “a good sense” of what US-led attacks have allegedly destroyed, officials did not “fully know the denominator” – meaning the reality of Yemen's military capabilities.According to current and former US officials who spoke with the Financial Times (FT), US intelligence agencies saw a "drop-off" in Yemen operations during the governments of former presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump."Because Yemen went down as a priority, so did our intelligence focus there," Mick Mulroy, a former senior Pentagon official and CIA officer, told the British news outlet.CIA operations in Yemen were also affected after the Ansarallah-led government shut down the US embassy in Sanaa."Reporting on a country from afar or offshore is inherently challenging, and doubly so for a country that has seen so much churn over the past 10 years," Ted Singer, a recently retired senior CIA official, said.Although hundreds of US-led airstrikes have hit the Arab world's poorest country since January, Yemeni leaders maintain that no amount of hostilities will deter them from continuing their Red Sea operations until Israel puts an end to the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza."The US, Britain, and Israel must realize that the policies of demarcation and assertion of hegemonic influence on international waters are obsolete and no more favorable … As long as the Zionists’ atrocities continue in Gaza, we will continue our operations against the usurping entity," Defense Minister Major General Mohammed al-Atifi said on February 26.

US Deploys Anti-Drone Lasers In Middle East To Field Test Prototypes --The Department of Defense has deployed four laser systems designed to intercept drones and rockets in the Middle East. The Pentagon has been developing a laser-style interceptor to reduce the cost of shooting down UAVs and rockets. Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. James Mingus announced the new deployment of Directed Energy Maneuver Short Range Air Defense (DE M-SHORAD) prototypes to the Middle East. The Army developed the weapons system in coordination with RTX, formerly Raytheon. The former employer of Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, RTX, has received over $100 million to develop the platform. DE M-SHORAD, according to RTX, is a 50-kilowatt vehicle-mounted laser designed to intercept drones, missiles, and rockets at short range.RTX and the Pentagon believe laser systems will be a cheaper alternative for downing cheap drones and rockets. The four interceptors deployed to the Middle East are mounted on Stryker armored vehicles.The 2024 Pentagon funding bill authorized nearly $700 million in spending on the development and procurement of DE M-SHORAD systems. American soldiers occupying Iraq and Syria have come under rocket and drone attack over 150 times in the past five months. The strikes come in response to Israel’s onslaught in Gaza, with Shia militia groups taking responsibility for some of the attacks.After a drone killed three American soldiers in Jordan, President Joe Biden ordered a massive round of airstrikes in Iraq and Syria. Dozens were killed, including some civilians. The Pentagon believes the Middle East is a good environment to test DE M-SHORAD as it will present unique challenges.

Poll: Majority of Democrats Want a Presidential Candidate Who Opposes Military Aid to Israel - A new poll from Reuters/Ipsos found that the majority of Democratic voters prefer a presidential candidate who doesn’t support military aid to Israel, another sign that President Biden’s unconditional support for the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza could cost him in November.The poll shows that 56% of respondents who identified as Democrats were less likely to support a candidate who backs military aid to Israel, while 40% were more likely to support such a candidate.The results were more evenly split when taking into account Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. The poll found 48% of all voters would be less likely to support a pro-Israel military aid candidate, while 47% were more likely to support such a candidate.The poll shows that 62% of Republican voters favor a candidate who would arm Israel, while 34% would be less likely to support them.President Biden is expected to run against former President Trump, and both are staunch Israel supporters. The Reuters/Ipsos found a plurality of Americans (34%) neither trust Biden nor Trump to broker a peace deal.

Trump on Israel's Gaza Slaughter: 'You've Got to Finish the Problem' - Former President Trump, the likely GOP candidate for the 2024 presidential election, said he supported Israel’s brutal military operations in Gaza in an interview with “Fox & Friends” on Tuesday.Trump agreed when a host described him as being “firmly in Israel’s camp.” He was then asked if he was “on board” with the way the Israeli military was carrying out its campaign.“You’ve got to finish the problem. You had a horrible invasion that took place, that would have never happened if I was president, by the way,” Trump replied.Trump did not elaborate on his position and only claimed the October 7 Hamas attack wouldn’t have happened if he was still president. When asked whether or not he would support a ceasefire in Gaza, Trump said, “Look, I hate seeing what’s happening. Again, it would have never happened. This attack on Israel and, likewise, Israel’s counter-attack, which is what it is, would never have happened if I was president.” During his time in office, Trump was extremely pro-Israel and carried out several policies to support Israeli claims to occupied land. His administration recognized the Golan Heights as Israeli territory and declared that illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank do not violate international law.Trump’s administration moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and unveiled a so-called “peace plan” that would have seen Israel annex large swathes of the West Bank. Trump also brokered the Abraham Accords, deals that resulted in Israel normalizing ties with the UAE and Bahrain.Trump has been relatively quiet on the campaign trail about the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza, but he is expected to continue unconditional military support for Israel if he wins in November. So far, nearly 31,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since October 7, and about two-thirds of the casualties are women and children.

Texas Republicans Vote Overwhelmingly in Favor of Restricting Combat Deployments of State's National Guard - On Tuesday, Texas Republican primary voters overwhelmingly supported a proposition in favor of legislation to restrict the deployment of the state’s National Guard to combat zones.The proposition stated, “The Texas Legislature should prohibit the deployment of the Texas National Guard to a foreign conflict unless Congress first formally declares war.”In response, 84% of voters said “yes,” and only 16% voted “no.” The proposition was based on the Defend the Guard Act, legislation that has been introduced in over 30 states that would prohibit the deployment of a state’s National Guard to combat zones without a formal declaration of war from Congress, as required by the Constitution.A version of the Defend the Guard Act has passed in three state legislatures so far. Most recently, the Idaho state Senate approved the bill in a vote of 27-8, and it now heads to Idaho’s House of Representatives for consideration.Visit Defendtheguard.us to see if the Defend the Guard Act has been introduced in your state. Click here to volunteer for phone banking to help get the legislation passed in states where it has been introduced.National Guard units are still being deployed to wars in the Middle East and Africa, including in Syria and Somalia. The recent drone attack that killed three members of the US Army Reserve at Tower 22 in Jordan also wounded about 40 members of the Arizona National Guard.

Jack Teixeira Pleads Guilty for Leaking Pentagon Documents, Faces Up To 16 Years in Prison - Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeria pleaded guilty on Monday for leaking Pentagon documents to Discord that surfaced in the media last year and revealed US government lies about the Ukraine proxy war. With his guilty plea, Teixeria agreed to a deal that will see him serve a harsh sentence of between 11 and 16 years in prison. The final sentence will be decided by a federal judge in September.After the guilty plea, Teixeria’s family issued a statement that said he had “taken responsibility” for his part in the leaks. The statement also pointed to an investigation by the Air Force Inspector General on 102nd Intelligence Wing that Teixera worked in.The statement said the “lackadaisical work atmosphere, lack of adequate training and oversight, combined with a complete disregard for policy or procedure ‘directly and indirectly’ contributed to what happened.” After the Air Force investigation, the commanding officer of the 102nd Intelligence Wing was removed from his post, and 14 other members of the Air National Guard were disciplined for the leaks.Teixeria was initially named as the leaker by The New York Times, which conducted an investigation with Bellingcat to identify him. He shared the classified documents with his friends on a private Discord server that had about 25 members, a group of young men and teenage boys. According to The Washington Post, there were 300 photos of documents he shared, but many were buried by the mainstream outlets that obtained them.Some of the most significant revelations of the Discord leaks include the fact that the US did not think Ukraine would succeed in its 2023 counteroffensive but pushed for it anyway. A document also confirmed there were NATO special operations forces inside Ukraine. As of March 2023, 97 NATO soldiers, including 14 Americans, were in the country.The documents also revealed the US was spying on the UN secretary-general and some close US allies. The leaks were a huge embarrassment for the US government and prompted the White House to warn media outlets not to report on them.

USAF Worker Arrested For Giving Ukraine War Secrets To 'Woman' On Foreign Dating Site A civilian United States Air Force employee has been arrested for using a foreign dating website to share classified information with someone presenting the personality of a flirtatious woman in Ukraine. The indictment provides no information about the identify of the person on the other end of the conversation, but it's easy to imagine the chump was unwittingly vying for the affection of a couple of chuckling Russian intel officers named Boris and Dmitry. The man apparently caught in a honey trap is David Franklin Slater, a retired US Army lieutenant colonel who held a top secret clearance while assigned to United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) at Nebraska's Offutt Air Force Base. Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division said the 63-year-old Slater showed a "blatant disregard for the security of his country and his oath to safeguard its secrets."In his role at Strategic Command, Slater attended briefings on the Ukraine war that were classified "Top Secret // Sensitive Compartmented Information." Seemingly entranced by flirty conversation and ego-stroking -- e.g., "you are my secret informant love!" -- Slater allegedly shared classified information about military targets in the Ukraine war and America's assessment of Russian military capabilities. Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. According to the indictment, Slater's communications with the purported Ukrainian woman -- identified in the indictment as "Co-Conspirator 1" -- started that same month and continued into April of that year, when Slater left the job under circumstances that have yet to be publicized. For weeks, via email and the unidentified foreign dating site, the "woman" repeatedly fawned over Slater, using his/her wiles to press him to spill secrets: ZeroHedge was unable to determine Slater's marital status or find a photo of him. He will appear in court on Tuesday. Charged with one count of conspiracy to disclose national security information and two counts of unauthorized disclosure of national defense information, Slater faces up to 10 years in prison and a fine of up to $250,000 per count.

US Gov't Reportedly Blocks AMD From Selling AI Chip To China - The United States continues to restrict China's capabilities in obtaining and manufacturing advanced semiconductor technologies, presenting significant challenges for Chinese firms and American semiconductor manufacturers that export chips to the world's second-largest economy. A new Bloomberg report states Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is the latest company caught in the crossfire of a broadening trade war between the superpowers. Sources said US government officials have told AMD that its artificial intelligence chips for the Chinese market are too advanced to sell without a license from the Commerce Department. This presents a major hurdle for the chipmaker trying to navigate Washington's crackdown on exports of advanced technologies. According to the report, AMD designed the chip for lower performance to comply with US export restrictions. However, Bloomberg declined to authorize the chip's sale in China, deeming it still too advanced. The report added that the chip must obtain a license from the department's Bureau of Industry and Security. There is no word from the sources on whether AMD will apply for the license. But what's evident is that news is impacting the company's shares on Tuesday morning. Shares of AMD are lower in premarket trading in New York, down nearly 2% around 0815 ET. Notice the daily bearish candle that printed on Monday.

To Revive U.S. Steel, Allow Its Transfer To Better Hands Remember U.S. Steel? It isn’t what it used to be. Founded in 1901 by Andrew Carnegie and J.P. Morgan, the company was the symbol of American industrial power. But employment peaked 80 years ago at 340,000; it’s now 23,000. Once the largest corporation of any kind in the world, U.S. Steel now ranks 27th among global steel producers -- and dropping. “It’s done nothing for decades,” according to steel industry analyst Charles Bradford. Stagnation in steel is hardly inevitable. In 1969, another American steelmaker, Nucor, pioneered the electric arc mini mill, which recycles scrap metal, but U.S. Steel is still devoted to less efficient blast furnaces that produce three times the CO2 emissions. Nucor is now the number-one steelmaker in the country by far, its stock rising by a factor of 12 in the last two decades. The obvious solution to U.S. Steel’s problem was to find a deep-pocketed purchaser -- and that’s what it did. The company in December accepted an offer by Nippon Steel Corp., the world’s fourth-largest steel producer. Nippon agreed to pay $14.9 billion for the company, a surprisingly large all-cash sum – a 142% premium to the price of the stock on Aug. 11. That’s when Cleveland-Cliffs, a blast-furnace producer about the same size as U.S. Steel, made the original attempt to buy the company. In the end, Nippon outbid Cleveland-Cliffs, which wanted to pay with cash plus shares of a stock that’s been lackluster. U.S. Steel also worried that a combination of the second- and third-largest American steelmakers would draw opposition from aggressive Biden antitrust regulators. Still, despite its defeat, Cleveland-Cliffs mobilized legislators to try to kill the Nippon acquisition. Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. John Fetterman called the purchase “absolutely outrageous.” Donald Trump is also opposed: “I think it’s a horrible thing.” Customers gathered recently at the Tampa Steel Conference disagree. Along with most U.S. Steel workers, they are thrilled with the deal. The head of the United Steelworkers of America called the sale “shortsighted,” but the union is probably just trying to gain negotiating leverage. Actual U.S. Steel employees were more worried about their company continuing to wither away and about potential layoffs with a Cleveland-Cliffs acquisition. Sure, we can shed a brief tear over a Japanese company buying an American icon, but what U.S. Steel needs is not nostalgia but capital and up-to-date technology. Nippon has a shot at providing both and thus reviving an American icon. If a foreign company offers a route to success that will benefit American investors, consumers and workers, is there really a problem? Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) seems to think so. He argues that “the foreign ownership of assets of such national importance could jeopardize our security.” But “foreign” in this case refers to Japan. As the State Department puts it, “The U.S.-Japan Alliance is the cornerstone of U.S. security interests in Asia and is fundamental to regional stability and prosperity.” China produces more than 10 times as much steel as the United States, and eight Chinese companies rank among the world’s top dozen steel producers. If we’re really worried about steel for national security reasons, we should be enhancing the position of our closest allies like Japan and welcoming them when they want to put billions into U.S. manufacturing.

US bans maker of spyware used to target government officials, journalists --The Treasury Department banned the maker of spyware used to target government officials, reporters and activists, deploying “first-of-its-kind” sanctions against sellers of commercial spyware. The U.S. government deployed sanctions against Greece-based spyware vendor Intellexa on Tuesday and the company’s leadership after targeting U.S. officials. “Today’s actions represent a tangible step forward in discouraging the misuse of commercial surveillance tools, which increasingly present a security risk to the United States and our citizens,” Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Brian E. Nelson said. The Treasury Department targeted two individuals and five entities associated with Intellexa for their role “in developing, operating, and distributing commercial spyware technology” utilized for targeting policy experts, reporters, human rights activists and government officials. The Tuesday announcement represents the first time the U.S. has sanctioned a commercial spyware entity. The technology has faced increased scrutiny over its capability to collect data, contact lists, and recordings without the knowledge of the phone’s owner. The sanctions prevent U.S. firms and residents from doing business with the listed companies and individuals, including Intellexa founder Tal Jonathan Dilian and Sara Aleksandra Fayssal Hamou, one of the consortium’s managers.Intellexa Consortium’s Predator software has been sold to multiple governments around the world. They charge customers millions of dollars for their software, according to documentspublished by Amnesty International in 2022. The sanctions follow President Biden’s executive order from last March prohibiting the use of commercial spyware across the federal government.

White House Calls on Haitian Leader to Resign, Considers Sending Elite Soldiers to Embassy - Secretary of State Antony Blinken held a series of conversations with Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry pressuring him to resign. Henry rose to power with the Biden administration’s support after the former leader was assassinated in 2021. As Prime Minister, Henry has lost control over most of the capital city to opposition groups and criminal gangs. The Miami Herald reports, “Blinken pressed Haiti’s prime minister, Ariel Henry, to announce his resignation and a political transition in a series of phone calls that took place Thursday and were described as ‘tense.’” After President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, the White House worked to push Henry into power. Under his term in office, the Haitian government has increasingly lost control over Port-au-Prince.The Biden administration attempted to prop up the Henry government by establishing an armed international force to deploy to Haiti with UN Security Council approval. In October, the body approved the US plan for Kenya to lead an armed international “police” force in Haiti.However, the White House’s plan has faced considerable opposition in Haiti and Kenya. The Kenyan opposition leader sued President William Ruto at the country’s high court to block the proposal.In January, the top court in Nairobi ruled in favor of the opposition, blocking the deployment. Last week, Ruto and Henry inked an agreement paving the way for the Kenya-led armed deployment to move forward.While Henry was in Kenya signing the agreement, opposition groups in Port-au-Prince carried out a series of attacks on prisons and the main airport. After leaving to meet with international partners and ink the agreement with Ruto, Henry has been unable to return to Haiti.In response, Washington is considering sending an elite Marine unit to the US embassy in Port-au-Prince. A State Department statement described the situation in Haiti as “untenable.”“For more than a year, the United States has encouraged Prime Minister Henry and other key stakeholders in Haiti to reach a compromise that will end the ongoing political stalemate,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said. “In the past week, the political crisis in Haiti, combined with escalating violence and civil unrest, has created an untenable situation which threatens the country’s citizens and security.”It is unclear if Henry plans to listen to Washington’s requests, or if he has the ability to hold onto power without US support. Also, there is a question of what the Kenyan force in Haiti would do without a standing government to support.

ObamaCare back in court over preventive services - The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit held oral arguments Monday on a challenge to the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) preventive services mandate. The panel’s two judges, appointed by former President Trump, seemed skeptical that the mandate was constitutional. Judges on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit in New Orleans questioned whether the members of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force have the legal power to make recommendations, since its members are not appointed by the president or confirmed by the Senate. The task force is a volunteer panel of national experts in disease prevention and evidence-based medicine. The ACA requires insurers to cover, without cost-sharing, more than 100 preventive health services recommended by the task force, like certain cancer screenings and HIV prevention. A federal judge in Texas last year ruled against that coverage mandate. The ruling also invalidated the law’s requirement that employers cover preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a medication for HIV prevention. If the appeals court upholds the decision, it could put patients on the hook for the full cost of potentially lifesaving treatments and screenings that are currently free, reshaping the health coverage landscape. Without the requirement, health plans and employers can pick and choose which preventive services they cover. Cost-sharing will likely deter patients — particularly those of limited means — from scheduling those procedures. Much of the panel’s questioning of Department of Justice attorney Daniel Aguilar focused on potential remedies for the situation, rather than the substance of the case. Aguilar argued the members of the panel and its recommendations are accountable to the Health and Human Services Secretary. But Aguilar said if the court finds otherwise, there shouldn’t be a nationwide injunction against the recommendations. The lawsuit was brought by one company and a handful of individuals who live in Texas, he argued, and the ruling should only apply to them. A decision is likely to come later this summer, and then could be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

House COVID panel subpoenas former NY Gov. Cuomo over nursing home deaths -- The House committee investigating the coronavirus pandemic response issued a subpoena Tuesday for former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) over his alleged failure to cooperate with a probe into the state’s COVID-19 nursing home policies. The House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic is demanding Cuomo appear for a closed-door deposition on May 24. Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), the subcommittee’s chairman, has previously requested interviews with former Cuomo administration officials, including former top aide Melissa DeRosa. Cuomo became a nationally known figure early in the pandemic by conducting daily briefings from Albany, contrasting himself with then-President Trump. Wenstrup in a statement accused the former governor of stonewalling the investigation and said the panel had been met with months and months of “repeated and unjustified delays.” The panel has been investigating COVID-19 nursing home policy decisions made by Cuomo and the Democratic leaders of New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Specifically, the panel is looking into Cuomo’s “must admit” order, which said nursing homes could not turn away patients who tested positive for COVID-19, as long as they were medically stable. The facilities were also prohibited from requiring hospitalized residents to be tested for the virus before their admission or readmission in nursing homes. The move was made early in the pandemic and was meant to help relieve overburdened hospitals, which were sending patients elsewhere to help free up capacity. The virus decimated New York’s nursing homes, killing more than 15,000 people. But multiple investigations into the Cuomo administration’s nursing home policies by the Department of Justice as well as state and local investigators did not lead to any conclusions of wrongdoing. In early 2021, a report from New York State Attorney General Letitia James found that COVID deaths in New York state had been “undercounted” by as much as 50 percent. Cuomo resigned in August 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment and inappropriate behavior, and as criticism of his COVID response mounted. “Not only did the former Governor put the elderly in harm’s way, but he also attempted to cover-up his failures by hiding the true nursing home death rate,” Wenstrup said in a statement. “It appears that politics, not medicine, was responsible for these decisions. And that while Mr. Cuomo is adept at seeking legal advice, he is not necessarily adept at seeking medical advice.” Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi said the subpoena is a political attack, and slammed House Republicans for failing to pass a budget or Ukraine aid. “Instead, they continue to play politics with Covid and weaponize people’s pain and loss of loved ones,” Azzopardi said. “Congress is officially a circus and they are nothing but clowns.”

Homelessness Rises Among US Veterans For 1st Time In 12 Years As Immigration Crisis Escalates -- As national, state, and local governments continue to spend billions of dollars to house, feed, clothe, and provide medical care for millions of illegal immigrants, homelessness among U.S. veterans has risen dramatically for the first time in 12 years.A recent report from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) details a 7.4 percent increase in veteran homelessness between 2022 and 2023 and estimates that more than 35,000 veterans are homeless on any given night. Over the course of a year, according to the report, almost twice as many veterans may experience homelessness. In total, HUD estimates that nearly 13 percent of the homeless adult population are veterans.Kate Monroe, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and CEO of VetComm.us, calls this situation “the ultimate betrayal” by the U.S. government. She is also a California Republican congressional candidate.“What they are trying to do is get as many people into the U.S. as they can,” she told The Epoch Times. “And what we’re saying to our homeless veterans is that we as a country don’t care. It’s no wonder why recruiting is down by 20 percent.”According to a November 2023 report by the Homeland Security Republican Committee, the money spent on illegal migrants could cost Americans up to $451 billion by the end of this year. According to NYC.gov, the official website for New York City, the Big Apple alone doled out $1.45 billion in 2023 to provide food, shelter, and services to tens of thousands of immigrants. Several published reports indicate that Chicago paid $138 million during the past year to house, feed, and care for illegal immigrants.The Federation for American Immigration Reform reports that the state of California, which had the highest number of immigrants in 2023—more than 160,000—spent some $22.8 billion for their care in 2023. California has also become the first state to offer health insurance for all illegal immigrants.“I’ve been down to the border. Buses pull up, and illegal migrants are given food, a cell phone, and a plane ticket,” Ms. Monroe said. “They are taking away housing and resources from veterans, and the American people are the victims.” Her firm is dedicated to helping veterans receive what they are owed from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and is also working to provide them with shelter and empower them to improve their quality of life.

Supreme Court temporarily blocks Texas law that allows police to arrest migrants --The Supreme Court on Monday temporarily blocked a Texas law that allowed state law enforcement officers to arrest migrants entering the United States from Mexico.In an order signed by Justice Samuel Alito, the high court blocked Texas from enacting the law until March 13, giving the state until March 11 to respond to the Justice Department’s request asking to pause the law from taking place.The Justice Department had filed an emergency request Monday asking the Supreme Court to intervene, with Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar arguing that the law would alter the “status quo that has existed between the United States and the States in the context of immigration for almost 150 years.”Prelogar was responding to an order from the Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit over the weekend that paused a ruling from a federal district judge that barred the law from taking effect last week.“The preliminary injunction entered by the district court simply maintains the longstanding status quo while this litigation proceeds; the court of appeals’ stay, on the other hand, would result in direct and irreparable harms to core federal interests,” she wrote.Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) signed the legislation into law last December, giving any Texas law enforcement officer the power to arrest those who are suspected of entering the country illegally. After being arrested, the migrants would either agree to a judge’s order making them leave the U.S. or be charged on misdemeanor charges of illegal entry under the new law.This law set up a contentious battle over immigration with the Biden administration. The Justice Department sued Texas over the law in January, arguing that it is unconstitutional under the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause.Federal Judge David Ezra barred the law from taking place in an order issued last week. Texas had immediately appealed the decision to the federal appeals court, and the state attorney general’s office on Monday applauded the 5th Circuit’s order.“The emergency stay granted by the Fifth Circuit has itself been stayed for seven days to allow the federal government to seek review by the Supreme Court of the United States. Further, the Fifth Circuit ordered that this appeal be expedited and argued immediately,” the state attorney general office wrote.

Hogan: Trump push against bipartisan border bill made me ‘angry enough’ to run for Senate Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) says former President Trump’s efforts to help to tank the Senate’s bipartisan border bill is the reason he decided to enter his state’s Senate race. “It’s why I decided to run for the Senate, actually,” Hogan said Monday. “I had never given any consideration to this race. I said 100 times, I didn’t aspire to become a senator. I didn’t need a job. I wasn’t looking for another title,” Hogan told Luke Russert at the launch of MSNBC Live in downtown Washington. But Hogan said he had a change of heart last month when he “saw a real solution to secure the border and to provide funding for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan — something that most of the Republican senators had said was, all those things were important — and they were they were told to vote against what they believed in.” Trump had urged Republicans in the upper chamber to vote against the bill before it was unveiled last month, saying its passage would be a political victory for President Biden. The border security package failed in the Senate by a vote of 49-50, with the majority of the Senate’s GOP conference voting against it. The move, said Hogan — a frequent critic of Trump — made him “frustrated and angry enough to say, ‘I think I’m gonna go down there and try to do something about this.’” Hogan launched a surprise GOP bid last month to replace outgoing Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin (D). The 67-year-old Senate hopeful said what’s missing in politics today is people who are “willing to put country above party” and “willing to stand up and do the right thing.” “I think we need people that don’t care about their next reelection, that aren’t just bound and do whatever the party tells them to do. We need people that care about America and putting it first, whether that means standing up or not,” Hogan said. He shed some light on who encouraged him to enter the Senate race, saying that while he had a “very brief conversation” with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), it was Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) who “put on a full-court press and had a dozen or so senators call.” Former Vice President Mike Pence also gave him a call, Hogan said. But it was former President George W. Bush who was the “most convincing guy,” according to Hogan. “[Bush] thought that I had an important voice that was needed for the party,” Hogan said, “and that this being in the Senate, he thought that there was a missing voice for our party to get back on track to a more Reagan-esque, bigger tent party.” “And [Bush] said, ‘Even though you probably don’t want to be a senator, you know, we need you,’” Hogan said.

House passes immigration bill named after slain Georgia student Laken Riley -The House on Thursday passed a bill that would require the detention of any migrant who committed burglary or theft, legislation that House Republicans named after a Georgia student who police say was killed by a man who illegally crossed the border. The measure — dubbed the Laken Riley Act — cleared the chamber in a 251-170 vote, with 37 Democrats joining all Republicans present in voting “yes.” It was the latest move by GOP lawmakers to put a spotlight on the situation at the southern border, which has emerged as a key issue in the 2024 campaign cycle and a top vulnerability for President Biden heading into the general election. Republicans have seized on Riley’s death to hammer the Biden administration. “Innocent Americans from Laken Riley in Georgia to the 14-year-old rape victim of an illegal immigrant in our home state of Louisiana,” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Wednesday “They’ve all been victimized by those whom the Biden administration has released into our country. He is releasing them into your state.” Jose Ibarra, a 26-year-old Venezuelan citizen who authorities said had entered the country illegally, was charged with murder in Riley’s death. The House approved the legislation hours before Biden is set to deliver his State of the Union address, which Republicans have said they hope will call attention to Riley’s death. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.) penned a letter to the president this week urging him to say the Georgia student’s name during his remarks, and Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) said his guest seat for Thursday’s speech will be empty “in honor of Laken Riley and all Americans who have lost their lives to an illegal alien criminal.” A number of Republicans are bringing immigration-focused guests to the speech to put a spotlight on the salient issue. Democrats, meanwhile, have slammed Republicans for what they see as an exploitation of Riley’s death in the hot-button debate over immigration and border security. “Unfortunately, instead of coming together to express our sorrow for Laken’s tragic loss, the majority appears to be exploiting her death for yet another partisan, political stunt,” Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) said on the House floor Thursday. “Rather than approaching this tragic event in a thoughtful manner, Republicans appear to have just thrown together language from existing, unrelated bills that target and scapegoat immigrants to score cheap political points in an election year while doing nothing to address the situation at the border,” he added. “This approach is fundamentally unserious.” Studies have routinely shown that migrants are less likely to commit crimes than U.S. citizens.The bill would be a dramatic shift in detention policy. Those arrested for nonviolent crimes have not been prioritized by Immigration and Customs Enforcement.While the bill would require detention for those arrested for “any burglary, theft, larceny, or shoplifting offense,” it’s not clear doing so in this case would have prevented the release of Ibarra.U.S. Customs and Border Enforcement has said Ibarra entered the country illegally in September 2022 near El Paso, Texas, from Mexico and was released for further processing after being detained. It’s unclear if he was seeking asylum.Ibarra was later arrested in Georgia after being given citations for shoplifting and failing to appear for his court date. The issue of immigration has risen to the top of polls as the issue voters are most concerned about ahead of the November presidential election. In a Gallup survey released last month, 28 percent of respondents said immigration was the most important problem facing the country today, the highest ranked. Behind immigration was the government at 20 percent and the economy in general at 12 percent. The salience of the topic of immigration on the campaign trail came into sharp focus last month, when Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) won a special election to fill the seat left vacant by former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who was expelled from Congress in December. Republicans in recent months amped up their criticism of Biden and his handling of the situation at the southern border, slamming Democrats nationwide for being complicit in what they dub a crisis. Suozzi, however, flipped the script on Republicans, calling for legislation to address the flow of migrants and endorsing the bipartisan Senate agreement on border security.

"Treason!": Bombshell Report Reveals Biden Has Secretly Flown 320,000 Illegals INTO The United States -- A Freedom of Information Act lawsuit has revealed that the Biden administration has flown at least 320,000 migrants into the United States in an effort to reduce the number of crossings at the southern border, according to Todd Bensman of the Center for Immigration Studies. "The program at the center of the FOIA litigation is perhaps the most enigmatic and least-known of the Biden administration’s uses of the CBP One cellphone scheduling app, even though it is responsible for almost invisibly importing by air 320,000 aliens with no legal right to enter the United States since it got underway in late 2022," wrote Bensman.Customs and Border Protection (CBP) had initially refused to disclose information about the flights, which use a cell phone app, CBP One, to arrange."Under these legally dubious parole programs, aliens who cannot legally enter the country use the CBP One app to apply for travel authorization and temporary humanitarian release from those airports. The parole program allows for two-year periods of legal status during which adults are eligible for work authorization," Bensman continues.The flights resulted in illegal immigrants being placed in at least 43 American cities from January through December 2023.Under the terms of their release, migrants are able to remain in the US for two years without obtaining legal status, and are meanwhile eligible for work authorization.The Biden administration initially refused to disclose which airports undocumented aliens were being flown into, citing a 'law enforcement exception,' new information reveals that the government thought 'bad actors' might pose a safety risk or create law enforcement opportunities - with CBP lawyers writing that revealing the specific airports would "reveal information about the relative number of individuals arriving, and thus resources expended at particular airports." In response to the CIS report, Elon Musk wrote on X: "Treason indeed! Ushering in vast numbers of illegals is why Secretary Mayorkas was impeached by the House," adding "They are importing voters. This is why groups on the far left fight so hard to stop voter ID requirements, under the absurd guise of protecting the right to vote."

VA secretary rescinds memo seeking to ban photo of WWII sailor kissing woman on V-J Day --Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) Secretary Denis McDonough on Tuesday rescinded a department memo meant to ban the famous World War II photo of a Navy sailor kissing a woman in New York’s Times Square. “Let me be clear: This image is not banned from VA facilities – and we will keep it in VA facilities,” McDonough tweeted along with the black-and-white image known as “V-J Day in Times Square.” The tweet came hours after a copy of a memo from RimaAnn Nelson, the VA assistant secretary for health for operations, was shared widely on social media.The memo, sent to the Veterans Integrated Services Network Directors on Feb. 29, requested the photo be removed and replaced at all VA facilities to maintain a “safe, respectful, and trauma-informed environment.” Nelson writes that the photo “depicts a non-consensual act” which is “inconsistent with the VA’s no-tolerance policy towards sexual harassment and assault.” The photo in question was taken Aug. 14, 1945, the day Japan surrendered to the United States. As people flocked to Times Square to celebrate the news, George Mendonsa grabbed young dental assistant Greta Zimmer, whose later changed her last name to Friedman, and pulled her into a kiss snapped by photographer Alfred Eisenstaedt.

Hunter Biden Held Previously Undisclosed Meeting With The "F**king Spy Chief Of China" - First brother Jim Biden told Congress last week that Hunter Biden held a previously undisclosed meeting with Patrick Ho, an executive with Chinese energy conglomerate CEFC China Energy - which, weeks earlier, paid Hunter and Jim Biden $5 million as part of a joint venture to find investments for the Chinese firm, the Washington Free Beacon reports. Hunter had previously referred to Ho as "the fucking spy chief of China" in an audio recording dated May 11, 2018, which was broken by The National Pulse three years ago. In a congressional deposition last month, Jim Biden said he accompanied Hunter Biden to Hong Kong in September 2017 to meet with Patrick Ho......The Biden family’s arrangement with CEFC China Energy has stoked national security concerns because of the Chinese firm’s links to Chinese military intelligence. Middlemen for CEFC China Energy approached Hunter Biden in 2015, when his father was vice president, about potential business deals.According to Jim Biden, he and Hunter Biden had a "pleasant" lunch in Hong Kong with Ho, who also served as head of the China Energy Fund Committee, a think tank funded by CEFC China Energy. At the end of the meeting, Ho asked to meet alone with Hunter Biden, according to Uncle Jim. -Washington Free Beacon According to Jim Biden, "Ho said, ‘Can I borrow Hunter for, you know, a half-hour? We're going to go in the next room.’"CEFC paid Hunter $1 million to represent Ho, however Hunter does not appear to have done any actual legal work on Ho's behalf. According to court records, the US government was surveilling Ho under a FISA warrant because they suspected that he was a possible agent of a foreign government.Jim Biden also described how CEFC entered the Biden orbit - telling congressional investigators that the father of one of Hunter's daughter's classmates contacted Biden about working with CEFC. The man, Scott Oh, gave Hunter a diamond ring after approaching Hunter in October 2015 to discuss "investment opportunities" involving CEFC. Meanwhile, a former Hunter Biden business associate has revealed in a jailhouse confession that the first son sought roughly $5 million from fugitive Ukrainian oligarch Dmitri Firtash in order to try and quash a US indictment while his father Joe Biden was Vice President, Just the News reports. Jason Galanis’ jailhouse account of an effort to assist Firtash was recently provided to the House Oversight and Judiciary Committees in President Joe Biden’s impeachment inquiry, and it corroborates a story from Just the News in 2021 in which Firtash’s longtime righthand man Hares Youssef confirmed the future first son was engaged in 2015 to try to help solve Firtash’s legal woes in the United States.Both Hares in 2021 and Galanis last month said Hunter Biden was unsuccessful – Firtash still faces charges and is fighting extradition to the United States from his safe harbor in Austria – but the efforts ultimately resulted in a $3 million investment in a tech fund called mBloom that Galanis and other Hunter Biden partners had formed.According to the report, around $300,000 of the $3 million made it into Rosemont Seneca Bohai, one of Hunter Biden's firms - which was also used for payments Hunter received from a second Ukrainian oligarch, Mykola Zlochevsky - president of Burisma Holdings energy firm.As Just the News reports further, Gelanis told Congressional impeachment investigators:

• Hunter Biden offered to help Firtash try to “influence or attempt to quash” his federal indictment;
• Galanis believed either $5 million or $5.5 million was delivered to Boies, where Hunter worked as a lawyer. The payment was to compensate Hunter Biden for trying to resolve Firtash's U.S. legal issues;
• Youseff became “very unhappy” with Hunter Biden’s work on the matter because of the lack of progress resolving Firtash's criminal case;
• Eventually, the effort ended and Youseff arranged to transfer $3 million of Firtash’s money to a tech startup associated with Galanis and other Hunter Biden business partners called mBloom.
• mBloom then sent about $300,000 of that money to Rosemont Seneca Bohai, a firm where Hunter Biden often got paid for his Burisma work.

Firtash was indicted in 2014 by the Obama-Biden DOJ on allegations of corruption, and has been represented by several powerful American lawyers, including former Clinton White House lawyer Lanny Davis, ex-U.S. Attorney Dan Webb and former DOJ officials Joseph diGenova and Victoria Toensing.In court, his lawyers have argued that the charges filed in Chicago were unwarranted. "He didn't pay any bribes. He's not even charged with paying bribes. He's charged with a scheme to bribe, involving a transaction in India, that never happened," Lanny Davis said back in 2021.

Prosecutors say Hunter Biden invented a conspiracy theory in effort to dismiss tax charges -Federal prosecutors on Friday filed their opposition to efforts by Hunter Biden’s attorneys to dismiss tax-related charges filed against the president’s son last year.Lawyers from special counsel David Weiss’ office forcefully rejected Biden’s assertion that the case against him was politically motivated and that prosecutors sought to appease congressional Republicans in bringing additional charges after a plea deal fell apart last year.“The defendant concocts a conspiracy theory that the prosecution has ‘upped the ante’ to appease politicians who have absolutely nothing to do with the prosecution and are not even members of the current Executive Branch,” prosecutors wrote.The filing came in a series of documents filed in federal court in California, with Weiss’ team hitting back at various motions to dismiss the indictment.In response to Biden’s arguments that the additional charges came amid pressure from Republicans on Capitol Hill, Weiss’ team said that prosecutors had signed proposed agreements for Biden’s plea “weeks after politicians had railed against them,” and highlighted the prosecution’s actions urging the court to accept the proposed agreements.“To state an obvious fact that the defendant continues to ignore, former President Trump is not the President of the United States,” they wrote.“The defendant fails to explain how President Biden or the Attorney General, to whom the Special Counsel reports, or the Special Counsel himself, or his team of prosecutors, are acting at the direction of former President Trump or Congressional Republicans, or how this current Executive Branch approved allegedly discriminatory charges against the President’s son at the direction of former President Trump and Congressional Republicans,” they added.Biden’s attorneys did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Friday’s filings. The special counsel’s office declined to comment.The judge overseeing the case told Biden’s attorneys to respond to the special counsel’s filings later this month.Attorneys for Biden had also argued last month that Weiss’ appointment as special counsel was unlawful.Prosecutors disputed those claims Friday, writing “these arguments are meritless and should be denied,” and arguing that Weiss’ appointment “conforms to the law in all respects.”Biden pleaded not guilty to nine tax-related charges when he was arraigned in January.In addition to the tax charges, Biden also faces federal gun charges that include an allegation that he possessed a firearm while using a narcotic. He has pleaded not guilty to those charges as well.

Hunter Biden Defense Ridiculed as 'House of Cards' by DOJ Prosecutors - Hunter Biden's defense in his tax-related charges was ridiculed on Friday as Department of Justice (DOJ) prosecutors called it a "house of cards."The DOJ announced a tax-related indictment of Hunter Biden, President Joe Biden's son, in December, saying that, instead of paying his taxes, he spent huge sums of money "on drugs, escorts and girlfriends, luxury hotels and rental properties, exotic cars, clothing, and other items of a personal nature" including over $70,000 on drug rehabilitation. DOJ special counsel David Weiss, an appointee of former President Donald Trump, brought the charges against him and has been investigating the president's son since 2018. Hunter Biden pleaded not guilty to nine felony and misdemeanor charges during an arraignment hearing in Los Angeles on January 11. The president's son is accused of attempting to evade payment of $1.4 million in personal taxes owed from 2016 to 2019.On Friday, federal prosecutors filed their opposition in response to efforts by Hunter Biden's attorneys to dismiss the charges.According to the court documents, lawyers from Weiss' office rejected Hunter Biden's claim that the case against him was politically motivated, stating that it is "nothing more than a house of cards.""The defendant's conspiratorial 'upped the ante' claim is nothing more than a house of cards...The defendant concocts a conspiracy theory that the prosecution has 'upped the ante' to appease politicians who have absolutely nothing to do with the prosecution and are not even members of the current Executive Branch," prosecutors wrote.The president's son argues that the additional charges, which were brought after a plea deal fell apart last year, came amid pressure from Republicans on Capitol Hill.However in response, Weiss' team said prosecutors had signed proposed agreements for Hunter Biden's plea "weeks after politicians had railed against them."

Trump wins Colorado ballot disqualification case at US Supreme Court - (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court handed Donald Trump a major victory on Monday, barring states from disqualifying candidates for federal office under a constitutional provision involving insurrection and reversing Colorado's exclusion of him from its ballot.The justices unanimously overturned a Dec. 19 decision by Colorado's top court to kick the former president off the state's Tuesday Republican primary ballot after finding that the U.S. Constitution's 14th Amendment disqualified him from again holding public office. The Colorado court had found that Trump took part in an insurrection for inciting and supporting the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by his supporters.The justices determined that only Congress can enforce the constitutional provision against federal officeholders and candidates. But four of the nine justices, including the court's three liberal members, faulted the rest of the court for announcing rules limiting how the provision may be enforced in the future.The ruling came five days after the justices agreed to decide Trump's claim of immunity from prosecution on charges related to trying to overturn his 2020 election loss to Biden. The court, whose 6-3 conservative majority includes three Trump appointees, acted in a speedier manner in deciding the ballot disqualification issue, benefiting him, than it has in resolving the immunity question. Delays in deciding the immunity issue could help Trump by delaying his criminal trial.The 14th Amendment's Section 3 bars from office any "officer of the United States" who took an oath "to support the Constitution of the United States" and then "engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.""We conclude that states may disqualify persons holding or attempting to hold state office. But states have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 with respect to federal offices, especially the presidency," the unsigned opinion for the court stated.Trump welcomed the ruling, saying during an appearance in Florida: "Essentially, you cannot take somebody out of a race because an opponent would like to have it that way." .Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold expressed disappointment at the ruling "stripping states of the authority" to enforce the disqualification clause."Colorado should be able to bar oath-breaking insurrections from our ballot," Griswold wrote in a social media post. Though the justices unanimously agreed with the result, the three liberal justices, as well as conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett, said the court's opinion decided more than what was necessary to resolve the case by specifying that Section 3 can be enforced only through federal legislation.Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson objected to the majority's "gratuitous" decision to announce rules limiting the way Section 3 can be enforced in the future."Today, the majority goes beyond the necessities of this case to limit how Section 3 can bar an oath-breaking insurrectionist from becoming president," the liberal justices said. "Although we agree that Colorado cannot enforce Section 3, we protest the majority's effort to use this case to define the limits of federal enforcement of that provision."In a concurring opinion, Barrett wrote that "this is not the time to amplify disagreement with stridency. The court has settled a politically charged issue in the volatile season of a presidential election. Particularly in this circumstance, writings on the court should turn the national temperature down, not up," Barrett wrote."For present purposes, our differences are far less important than our unanimity: All nine Justices agree on the outcome of this case. That is the message Americans should take home," Barrett added.

Supreme Court ruling darkens critics’ hopes for a judicial curb on Trump - The Washington Post --When 2024 dawned, the presidential race appeared destined to play out as much in the courts as on the campaign trail.Former president Donald Trump faced a pair of federal indictments. Two state cases brought the total criminal charges against him to 91. Challenges to his ballot eligibility proliferated, with the Supreme Court being asked to weigh in on whether Trump could even be a candidate.Two months later, the federal cases have been slowed to the point where verdicts before November are considered unlikely. One of the state cases has been derailed by a sex scandal. The other is due to go to trial later this month, but is widely seen as the least significant of the bunch.And the challenge to Trump’s ballot eligibility was settled decisivelyMonday, with the Supreme Court unanimously ruling that states lack the power to disqualify him.To anyone hoping that Trump’s efforts to overturn the last election would lead the judicial system to meaningfully penalize him before the next one, recent developments have proved sobering.The Supreme Court on March 4 unanimously overruled a Colorado decision that would have kept former president Donald Trump off the ballot in 2024. (Video: Anna Liss-Roy, JM Rieger/The Washington Post, Photo: Scott Muthersbaugh/The Washington Post)“The real takeaway is that the courts aren’t going to save us from ourselves,” said Stephen Vladeck, a professor at the University of Texas School of Law, “and that the only surefire way to ensure that an anti-democratic candidate for president doesn’t succeed is to beat him at the ballot box.”While the court had been widely expected to rule in Trump’s favor, the decision came amid a string of setbacks in efforts to hold Trump accountable for his efforts to disrupt the transfer of power after the 2020 vote. Trump is also outpolling President Biden in many head-to-head matchups and continues to dominate the Republican primary, with the chance to put the intra-party contest effectively out of reach on Tuesday as 15 states cast ballots.The court’s 9-0 decision overturned a December ruling from Colorado’s Supreme Court, which barred Trump from appearing on the state’s ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The Civil War-era provision prohibits those who have taken an oath to the Constitution and then engaged in insurrection from holding office again. The Colorado court cited Trump’s role in the events around the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection as the basis for its decision.Trump is the first former president to have been charged with a crime. He is facing four separate cases, two of which relate to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election.All nine justices — the six conservatives plus the three liberals — said an individual state should not be able to ban a candidate from running for federal office. They warned of the consequences of a nationwide patchwork in which candidates were barred in some states but not others. “Nothing in the Constitution requires that we endure such chaos — arriving at any time or different times, up to and perhaps beyond the inauguration,” the court said in an unsigned, 13-page opinion.

Judge Luttig reacts to Supreme Court Colorado decision --Retired federal Judge J. Michael Luttig on Monday called the Supreme Court decision allowing former President Trump to remain on the presidential ballot “stunning in its overreach.”In an interview on CNN’s “The Lead,” Luttig refrained from criticizing the decision to let Trump stay on the ballot, but he said the Supreme Court’s expansive decision concerning other constitutional matters “was both shocking and unprecedented.”“Not for its decision of the exceedingly narrow question presented by the case, though that issue is important, but rather for its decision to reach and decide a myriad of the other constitutional issues surrounding disqualification under [the] 14th Amendment,” Luttig told Jake Tapper.The Supreme Court unanimously ruled Monday that Colorado cannot disqualify former President Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection ban.The Supreme Court also ruled Congress has exclusive authority to enforce the 14th Amendment to disqualify federal candidates. Trump-appointed Justice Amy Coney Barrett joined the three liberal justices in criticizing that decision.Luttig, a longtime conservative jurist on the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, agreed with the concurrence and said it was not necessary to go beyond the narrow scope of the case.“In reaching and deciding those questions unnecessarily, the court, the majority, as the concurrences said, effectively decided that the former president will never be disqualified from holding the presidency in 2024. Or ever, for that matter,” Luttig continued.“But even more importantly, as the concurrence said, effectively, the court today decided that no person in the future will ever be disqualified under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, regardless [of] whether he or she has engaged in an insurrection or rebellion against the Constitution of the United States,” he said.Luttig compared the reach of the ruling to those of the Warren Court, largely considered the most liberal Supreme Court in recent history.“It’s stunning in its overreach. It’s a textbook example, Jake, of the kind of activist judicial opinion from the 1960s and the Warren Court era that begat the conservative legal and judicial movement in the 1970s and 1980s. But of course, it’s different here. Because this is unmistakably a conservative court,” he said.Luttig — who filed an amicus brief in January calling on the Supreme Court to uphold the Colorado decision barring Trump from appearing on the ballot — defended the liberal justicesagainst Barrett’s warning not to “amplify disagreement with stridency.”“Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who did not join the other five in the overreaching decisions that it made, accuse the three concurrences of stridency in their opinions,” Luttig said. “For your listeners and your viewers: There was not one word of stridency in the concurring opinion by Justices [Sonia] Sotomayor, [Elena] Kagan, and [Ketanji Brown] Jackson. Not one single word of stridency.”

House Dems Implode Over Supreme Court Decision; Raskin Crafting Legislation To Bar Trump From Ballot Not satisfied to let the Supreme Court-enforced Democratic process play out, House Democrats are now preparing legislation to try and keep Trump off the ballot."Congress will have to try and act," said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, in a comment to creepy deep state mouthpiece Axios (which swears the border is extra-secure!).Raskin, a former member of the Jan. 6 select committee, said he is already crafting the bill, telling Axios, "I'm working on it – today."

• Raskin pointed to legislation he introduced with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) in 2022 creating a pathway for the Justice Department to sue to keep candidates off the ballot under the 14th Amendment.
• "We are going to revise it in light of the Supreme Court's decision," Raskin said. -Axios

"I don't have a lot of hope that Speaker [Mike] Johnson will allow us to bring enforcement legislation to the floor, but we have to try and do it," said Raskin, who said he'll 'beseech' Republicans to join the bill. Very Democratic, Jamie.Update (1320ET): Former President Trump has responded to the Supreme Court's ruling keeping him on the ballot in Colorado (and therefore, everywhere else).According to Trump, the decision was "very well crafted," and "will go a long way toward bringing our country together."

Trump presses Supreme Court to rule for him on presidential immunity - Former President Trump on Monday took a victory lap after the Supreme Court restored him to the ballot in Colorado, rebuffing 14th Amendment challenges to his candidacy for the White House. But Trump’s attention quickly shifted to a more pressing Supreme Court case in his eyes: one concerning whether he can be criminally prosecuted for his efforts to overturn his 2020 reelection loss. “I have great respect for the Supreme Court, and I want to just thank them for working so quickly and so diligently and so brilliantly and, again, this is a unifying factor,” Trump said in remarks from his Mar-a-Lago estate. “I hope that the justices, because they’ll be working on some other cases, but one in particular, presidents have to be given totally immunity,” he added. “They have to be allowed to do their job. If they’re not allowed to do their job, it’s not what the founders wanted, but perhaps even more importantly it will be terrible for the country.” The Supreme Court unanimously ruled Monday that Colorado cannot disqualify Trump from the ballot under the 14th Amendment’s insurrection ban, effectively ending the long-shot effort. Trump spent relatively little time in his Mar-a-Lago remarks discussing the Colorado decision that was announced Monday morning, and comparatively spoke at length about the need for presidents to be granted full immunity. “If a president doesn’t have full immunity, you really don’t have a president,” Trump said, suggesting whoever is in the White House would not have “the courage” to make difficult decisions. “They have to make decisions, and they have to make them free of all terror that can be reigned upon them when they leave office,” Trump added. The Supreme Court last week agreed to take up the issue of whether Trump is immune from prosecution in the case regarding his efforts to subvert the 2020 election. The high court’s order establishes an expedited schedule, setting up oral arguments during the week of April 22 and likely enabling the landmark decision to be handed down by the end of June or sooner. If the conservative-majority court ultimately sides against Trump, as many legal observers expect, it would then allow special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution to move forward, providing the judge in the case with a window to still schedule the trial before November’s election. Trump is facing 91 felony charges across four different cases. There is the Washington, D.C., case, a separate case in Georgia concerning his efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 election results, a New York City case over an alleged hush money scheme during the 2016 campaign and a Florida case over his retention of classified materials after leaving the White House. “If a president does a good job, a president should be free and clear and, frankly, celebrated for having done a good job,” Trump said Monday. “Not indicted four times and not gone after on a civil basis and not demanded to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in fines.” The Biden campaign called Trump’s remarks from Mar-a-Lago “chaotic musings” that “remind the American people why they voted him out of office four years ago.”

Smith combats Trump’s efforts to toss Mar-a-Lago documents case - Special counsel Jack Smith’s team slammed a series of arguments from former President Trump seeking to toss his case involving mishandled classified records at his Florida estate, rebuffing claims he is immune from prosecution and that the documents were his personal property. The prosecution’s five briefs come after Trump last month fired off as many motions seeking to topple the case, rehashing his claims of presidential immunity, which are now set to come before the Supreme Court, as well as others more specifically tailored to the 40-count indictment. Smith’s team argues Judge Aileen Cannon has little to consider in weighing Trump’s claims he should be immune to prosecution for actions he took as president, noting he took all the documents after exiting office. “The Superseding Indictment does not charge Trump for any acts that he undertook as President, let alone an official presidential act,” prosecutors wrote. “Even though Trump lost the authority to possess documents containing national defense information after his term as President ended, he nonetheless willfully retained such documents.” Prosecutors also spent ample time reviewing Trump’s claims that the charges should be dismissed as a “selective and vindictive” prosecution — a path that requires showing prosecutors did not bring charges against similarly situated defendants. But Smith dismissed Trump’s claims the lack of charges for President Biden means he was unfairly targeted, noting the cases have only “superficial similarities.” “Trump, unlike Biden, is alleged to have engaged in extensive and repeated efforts to obstruct justice and thwart the return of documents bearing classification markings, which provides particularly strong evidence of willfulness and is a paradigmatic aggravating factor that prosecutors routinely rely on when making charging decisions,” prosecutors wrote. They also noted that special counsel Robert Hur said he failed to find evidence beyond a reasonable doubt that Biden intentionally kept the records. “Additional distinctions—relating to the volume, sensitivity, and storage of the classified documents—further confirm that the two cases are not ‘nearly identical’ and that there are ‘legitimate reasons for viewing them differently,'” they wrote. Trump is charged with violating the Espionage Act, which prohibits the willful retention of national defense information, as well as obstruction of justice and other charges related to his efforts to conceal them from investigators. Smith was also dismissive of claims from Trump that the more than 300 classified records found among a significant tranche of other records from his presidency constitute personal records under the Presidential Records Act. “The charged documents are indisputably presidential, not personal, and Trump offers no basis to conclude otherwise,” his team wrote. Finally, Smith’s team attacked Trump’s arguments that he is facing an unconditionally vague prosecution. “Trump is charged with the unauthorized possession and willful retention of national defense information. The statute’s prohibitions are clear. And as a former President, Trump could not have failed to understand the paramount importance of protecting the Nation’s national-security and military secrets, including the obligations not to take unauthorized possession of, or willfully retain, national defense information,” prosecutors wrote.

Ex-Trump Organization CFO pleads guilty to perjury charges - The former chief financial officer of the Trump Organization on Monday pleaded guilty to perjury charges stemming from his testimony in former President Trump’s civil fraud trial. Allen Weisselberg, Trump’s longtime financial gatekeeper, was charged with five felony counts of perjury. He pleaded guilty to two counts Monday for lying during a 2020 deposition as the New York attorney general’s office built its civil fraud case against the Trump Organization. As part of the plea deal, he also admitted he lied in his trial testimony and during another deposition last year, without pleading guilty to those charges. The ex-Trump Organization executive surrendered Monday morning to the Manhattan district attorney’s office. He entered state court later Monday in handcuffs and wearing a mask. A New York judge said he will be sentenced to five months in jail, the amount of time prosecutors requested. “Allen Weisselberg looks forward to putting this situation behind him,” Seth Rosenberg, Weisselberg’s lawyer, said in a statement. Weisselberg was a defendant alongside Trump in New York Attorney General Letitia James’s sweeping civil fraud case against the former president and his business for conspiring to alter Trump’s net worth for tax and insurance benefits. The top executive was ordered to pay more than $1.1 million, plus interest, and barred for three years from serving in top leadership positions in any New York corporation or business entity. He was also barred for life from serving “in the financial control function” of any New York business. The charges Weisselberg pleaded guilty to stemmed from a July 17, 2020, deposition with the attorney general’s office, where state lawyers questioned him over Trump’s Manhattan triplex. The Trump Tower triplex was listed on the former president’s financial statements as 30,000 square feet in size — despite actually being less than 11,000 square feet. Weisselberg told the lawyers in 2020 that he “didn’t find out about the error” in sizing until Forbes reported it. He also told the lawyers he was never present when Trump described the size of the triplex.

RFK Jr. fuels talk of Libertarian party switch: ‘He’s a rogue punk rocker’ - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is fueling speculation that he could join the Libertarian Party’s presidential ticket as he seeks to qualify in more states heading into November. Kennedy raised eyebrows late last month when he spoke at the party’s annual convention in California, a development that was welcomed as a signal of intent from some Libertarians and came as he gains ballot access in swing states as an independent candidate. While Kennedy himself has only casually entertained a possible switch, there is growing support among party members, strategists and activists for him to join their ranks, multiple sources told The Hill. “There’s a buzz going on, and there’s a lot of interest in him,” said Ron Nielson, who served as former Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson’s campaign manager in 2012 and 2016. “If he were to say that he were to accept the nomination of the Libertarian Party, that would probably change a lot of heads,” Nielson said. “There are people within the Liberty movement that would like to help him.” One source in Kennedy’s orbit echoed that sentiment. “There is a willingness of people in the Liberty movement to consider Bobby, for sure,” the source said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss internal campaign dynamics. “He’s a rogue punk rocker of the political system,” the source added. Kennedy wants to appear uniformly on ballots across the map as part of a third-party crusade against President Biden and former President Trump. He regularly laments the established parties’ front-runners, deeming them unfit to address the current national turmoil and bigger systemic problems in government. So far, he’s become an official contender in New Hampshire and Utah, and last week he added Hawaii to his camp’s tally. But observers from many corners of the political system are increasingly skeptical that he’ll be able to gather enough signatures in time. Libertarians, meanwhile, have taken notice of Kennedy’s more recent movements, quietly expressing a willingness to nominate him at their late May convention in Washington, D.C.

No Labels Picks 'Dangerous' Experiment Over US Democracy - With Democratic U.S. President Joe Biden expected to face former GOP President Donald Trump in the November election, No Labels on Friday confirmed it is pushing ahead with plans for a third-party "unity" ticket that critics fear could help the Republican return to the White House."The consequences of the next presidential election could not be more serious or more existential, and, despite this, No Labels has put their dangerous, reckless thought experiment ahead of the rights and freedoms of millions of Americans and the future of our democracy,"declared MoveOn Political Action executive director Rahna Epting. "Their decision to move forward with a dark-money, Trump donor-funded third-party fantasy bid is shameful and puts millions of Americans at risk.""Their own founder said they are 'not in it to win it,' and several current and past supporters of No Labels have implored them to stand down. And yet, they have decided to pump millions of dollars of dark money into a run that would swing the election to Donald Trump," she warned. "Any candidates who join the No Labels presidential ticket will be complicit in making it easier for Donald Trump and MAGA extremists to win a second term in the White House.""Any candidates who join the No Labels presidential ticket will be complicit in making it easier for Donald Trump and MAGA extremists to win a second term."Epting's comments came after No Labels national convention chair Mike Rawlings said in a statement that "earlier today, I led a discussion with the 800 No Labels delegates from all 50 states. These citizen leaders have spent months discussing with one another the kind of leadership they want to see in the White House in 2024. These are some of the most civic-minded, thoughtful, and patriotic Americans I have ever met. They take their responsibility seriously.""Even though we met virtually, their emotion and desire to bring this divided nation back together came right through the screen. I wasn't sure exactly where No Labels delegates would land today but they sent an unequivocal message: Keep going," he added. "They voted near unanimously to continue our 2024 project and to move immediately to identify candidates to serve on the unity presidential ticket. Every one of our delegates had their own explanation for wanting to move ahead."

Nobody With Real Power Cares If You Refuse To Vote For Biden by Caitlin Johnstone-- There’s been a lot of talk in pro-Palestine circles about withholding votes for Biden in protest of his genocide in Gaza, which is of course fine, but the discourse around doing so often misses an important point. A lot of US voters erroneously think they’d be punishing the Democrats for Gaza by costing them the election, mistakenly assuming Democrats care about winning. They don’t. Losing an election costs Democratic party leaders nothing; all the career politicians and political operatives at the top keep their careers either way. From their point of view this is just a cushy job with sweet benefits, and they keep those win or lose. And obviously Biden himself doesn’t care; he’ll have a comfortable retirement regardless of the outcome in November, and on some level he’s surely aware that it’s nuts for a dementia patient to be in the White House anyway.The unelected empire managers who actually run the US power structure also don’t care who wins the election. They know they’ll still get their murder and militarism and capitalism and imperialism no matter who gets sworn in next year, whether it’s Biden or Trump or Harris or someone else. Nobody with any real power cares about your vote. And that’s the real issue. That’s the real point that keeps getting missed here. The problem is not that the wrong people keep getting elected, it’s that the elections don’t matter and voters don’t have a say. It’s that humanity is dominated by a murderous globe-spanning power structure loosely centralized around Washington whose actual movements and behavior have effectively zero responsiveness to the will of the electorate. You’re never going to be able to vote your way out of this mess, and you’re never going to be able to not-vote your way out of this mess, because the power of your vote has been undermined to a value of zero. That doesn’t mean there’s no way out of this mess, it just means there’s no way to get out of this mess using the fake plastic diversion toy they handed you to shut you up and trick you into thinking you have a say.

Fake AI images of Trump with Black voters circulate on social media - As former President Trump seeks Black voter support, some of his followers have also begun targeting Black voters — with fake images created by artificial intelligence (AI), according to a report by BBC Panorama.The news organization reported Monday finding dozens of deepfakes portraying Black people supporting the former president.In one of the AI-generated images, conservative radio show host Mark Kaye and his team created an image of Trump with his arms around a group of Black women. Kaye shared the image on social media, where he has more than 1 million followers, according to the BBC.In another photo the BBC found, a user identified as “Shaggy” placed Trump in front of a house with a group of young Black men. The photo was also posted on social media where it received thousands of likes and 1.4 million views.But telltale signs of the technology could be seen in the AI-generated images — including missing fingers on some peoples’ hands.Advances in AI have led to worries about how it might be used in politics.In January, AI-generated robocalls of President Biden went out to voters in New Hampshire, telling people not to vote because the primary was a “bunch of malarkey.” The fake call told voters to “save your vote for the November election.”Recent studies have found that AI chatbots are providing voters with false information. In one instance, Meta’s Llama 2 responded to a prompt by falsely stating California voters can vote by text message.A Trump campaign official told The Hill that the campaign had no involvement with the images the BBC found.“The only ones using AI to meddle in an election are President Trump’s opponents,” the campaign official said. “The Trump Campaign has absolutely nothing to do with these AI images. Nor can we control what other people create and post.”Trump has been courting Black voters, particularly Black men.Last month, he claimed that his criminal indictments would appeal to Black voters because they understand discrimination, though his comments quickly drew criticism from Black leaders and Biden.Trump has also started selling sneakers, displaying them at a Sneaker Con event, and has been hinting that Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) — both of whom are Black — are in the running to be his vice presidential pick.

Trump edges out Biden in three potentially game-changing areas -There are three key questions surrounding the 2024 presidential election that no one has been able to offer answers for — until now, in light of the findings of a new national poll by our firm, Schoen Cooperman Research. These answers will go a long way in determining who — eight months out from the election — the frontrunner is, with most polls showing a very close race. First, which is more politically deleterious: President Joe Biden’s apparent cognitive decline, or the numerous legal challenges and criminal charges facing Former President Donald Trump?Second, can Trump win the general election if he is convicted of a federal crime? Third, if Biden were to bow out of the race by the time of the Democratic Convention, isMichelle Obama — the most well-liked figure in the Democratic Party — a viable candidate? Perhaps the most-debated question is the first one: Which problem, Biden’s age-related infirmities or Trump’s potential criminal conduct, is worse politically? Answer: Biden’s. A plurality of registered voters (36 percent) we surveyed indicate that Biden’s mental fitness is the more serious concern, while 33 percent say the same of Trump’s legal problems and unethical conduct and 22 percent are troubled by both equally. Our results were collected days after Trump was fined $354 million in a New York civil fraud suit, one of four major cases he is embroiled in, and amid the aggressive effort by the White House to push back on special counsel Robert Hur’s report on Biden, which exonerated the president legally, but devastatingly described him as an “elderly man with a poor memory.” Just as Trump and his defenders have decried these charges as a political witch hunt, Democrats have slammed the special counsel’s report as “inappropriate,” and continue to dodge uncomfortable questions about the president’s age and mental acuity. Both are futile exercises in denial and deflection, particularly those on Biden’s behalf. While the Biden campaign may take some solace in the fact that a plurality (46 percent) of the electorate believes Hur’s damning portrayal of Biden’s mental fitness was indeed inappropriate, at the same time, a plurality (47 percent) also agrees with Hur’s description of Biden’s age-related infirmities. Despite Democrats’ latest efforts to flip the script and cast doubt on Trump’s memory — giving heavy play to a recent speech where he confused G.O.P. presidential candidate Nikki Haley and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) — this has not taken the heat off of Biden. By 47 percent to 44 percent, Trump is seen as being mentally fit to be president, but by 50 percent to 39 percent, Biden is seen as not mentally fit. As for the second question: Could Trump still win the general election if convicted of a federal crime? Answer: Yes, barring any legal obstacles Trump might face. Trump leads Biden by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent, in SCR’s presidential horserace, as well as in RealClearPolitics’ average of recent polls. But under a hypothetical scenario where Trump is convicted in any of the federal cases he is facing, our poll found that Biden only leads the presidential horserace by 1 point, 45 percent to 44 percent, a statistical tie. It is essential to note that voters categorically dislike both candidates and are pessimistic about the choice before them. However, according to our poll, the electorate — including the all-important swing voter group — ultimately feels that Trump did a good job in office and that his policies improved their lives, but say the opposite of Biden. Indeed, 55 percent of voters feel that Trump’s policies helped them personally, including an even stronger majority swing voters (58 percent); on the other hand, 52 percent of the electorate says that Biden’s policies have hurt them personally, including 60 percent of swing voters. In that same vein, majorities of the electorate approve of the job Trump did (52 percent) but disapprove of Biden’s work as president (55 percent). This is in line with RealClearPolitics’ recorded average of Biden’s approval rating being 15 points underwater, 41 percent to 56 percent. There is another key distinction between the two candidates: Republicans are enthusiastic about Trump, while Democrats are wary of Biden, which suggests problems with low turnout for the party. Most Democratic and lean-Democratic voters (54 percent) believe their party should not nominate Biden, while nearly 70 percent of Republican or lean-Republican voters think their party should choose Trump. This leads us to the third question: is Michelle Obama, the most well-liked figure in the Democratic Party a viable candidate, if Biden were to not run? Answer: tentatively, yes. While Obama has provided little to no indication that she plans on running, should Biden bow out of the race late in the game, Democrats may begin an aggressive effort to draft her, given the clear and well-documented issues with Vice President Kamala Harris’ electability. Even though Democratic voters would prefer Harris to be the nominee if Biden drops out, she trails Trump by 11 points in a hypothetical presidential horserace, 50 percent to 39 percent. Obama is the second-choice pick for Democratic voters and is tied with Trump in our presidential horserace, 45 percent to 45 percent. Unlike Harris, Obama is popular, and would not be saddled with the administration’s baggage. While a well-organized and robust campaign might be able to push numbers up further, her relative weakness to Trump is indicative of the degree to which the Biden administration has undermined all Democrats. In an indication of how negatively the current administration is viewed, Trump is more trusted than Biden on the issues that registered voters say are most important to them: immigration (Trump +29), the economy (Trump +11), inflation (Trump +9) and even gun violence (Trump +3). At a time of great global instability, Trump also has a major advantage on national security (Trump +23), the Russia-Ukraine War (Trump +9), and the Israel-Hamas War (Trump +8).

MSNBC Cuts Off Trump Victory Speech; Claims It's "Irresponsible" To Broadcast MSNBC’s salty anchor Rachel Maddow once again cut away from Donald Trump giving a victory speech after winning 15 of the Super Tuesday states, reasoning that it is “irresponsible to allow” Trump to “knowingly lie.” As Trump was speaking, Maddow interjected “Yeeeaaaah okay,” while one of the other clowns laughed in the background. The anchor then stated, “I will say it is a decision that we revisit constantly in terms of the balance between allowing somebody to knowingly lie on your air about things they have lied about before and you can predict they are going to lie about, so therefore, it is irresponsible to allow them to do that.” Maddow continued, “It is a balance between knowing that that is irresponsible to broadcast and also knowing that as the de facto soon to be de facto nominee of the Republican party, this is not only the man who is likely to be the Republican candidate for president, but this is the way he is running.” MSNBC anchor Stephanie Ruhle chimed in “Well here is how to balance it. We fact check the hell out of him.”“Yes, and we do that after the fact,” Maddow responded, adding “That is the best remedy that we’ve got. It does not fix the fact we broadcast it.” Watch:

Former Twitter execs sue Elon Musk for more than $128 million in unpaid severance -- Four former Twitter executives filed a lawsuit on Monday against the company’s current owner, Elon Musk, arguing he withheld more than $128 million of their severance pay after firing them when he took over. The lawsuit was brought by the company’s former chief executive officer, Parag Agrawal; the company’s former chief financial officer, Ned Segal; the company’s head of legal, policy and trust, Vijaya Gadde; and the company’s acting general counsel, Sean Edgett. Musk fired all four plaintiffs when he bought Twitter, which he renamed X. They are now asking for severance benefits and payments for attorneys’ fees and interest. The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, claims the executives’ contracts stated that they were entitled to severance pay if Twitter became no longer a public company. When Musk took the company private in October 2022, he did not pay them, according to the lawsuit. The lawsuit points to a section of Walter Isaacson’s biography on Musk, who described to Isaacson his strategy of avoiding paying the severance by manufacturing “cause.” The lawsuit says that the plaintiffs lobbied shareholders against Musk’s “wrongful attempt to renege on the deal” to buy Twitter, which angered Musk. The lawsuit quotes Musk from the biography saying that he would “hunt every single one of” the executives and directors “till the day they day.” “Musk’s own words show that he made up cause and terminated Plaintiffs to avoid paying them the benefits they are owed under the Plans. As quoted above, Musk admitted his plan to his biographer Isaacson as it was happening. Musk orchestrated the closing and termination plan as a pretext to cut off Plaintiffs’ severance, exact vengeance, and save himself money. He terminated Plaintiffs and manufactured cause for the specific purpose of interfering with their right to benefits under the Plans. “Because Musk decided he didn’t want to pay Plaintiffs’ severance benefits, he simply fired them without reason, then made up fake cause and appointed employees of his various companies to uphold his decision,” the lawsuit read. “He claimed in his termination letters that each Plaintiff committed ‘gross negligence’ and ‘willful misconduct’ without citing a single fact in support of this claim,” the lawsuit read.

X revives policy targeting deadnaming, misgendering - X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, updated its abuse and harassment rules to revive regulations around content that misgenders or deadnames individuals. The quiet update comes less than a year after the platform, under Musk’s ownership, revoked its ban on content that uses a transgender person’s name before they transitioned — known as a deadname — or purposefully used the wrong gender for someone. The update to X’s abuse and harassment rules was first reported by Ars Technica.. The updated rules state X “will reduce the visibility of posts that purposefully use different pronouns to address someone other than what that person uses for themselves, or that use a previous name that someone no longer goes by as part of their transition.” The rule adds that “given the complexity of determining whether such a violation has occurred,” the platform “must always hear from the target to determine if a violation has occurred.” Jenni Olson, GLAAD’s senior director of social media safety, told Ars Technica the update is a positive move but is still a step back from stronger ban Twitter previously had in place. She said the self-reporting requirement places a significant burden on the victim. GLAAD had pushed back strongly on the platform’s decision to remove its initial policy against deadnaming and misgendering. It is one of many changes to content moderation made at X under Musk’s leadership that civil rights groups and other tech advocacy groups have criticized.

DeSantis vetoes Florida bill banning social media accounts for kids under 16 - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) vetoed legislation Friday that would have banned children under 16 years old from holding social media accounts in the Sunshine State. DeSantis, who had previously voiced concerns about the legislation, said in a statement that Florida lawmakers were “about to produce a different, superior bill.” “Protecting children from harms associated with social media is important, as is supporting parents’ rights and maintaining the ability of adults to engage in anonymous speech,” he said. “I anticipate the new bill will recognize these priorities and will be signed into law soon.” The former Republican presidential candidate, who dropped out of the GOP primary race in late January, emphasized last week that Florida officials were looking to strike a “proper balance” between regulation and parental input on the issue. “I’ve always said I think social media is a net negative for kids,” DeSantis said, adding “I do think parents can supervise in ways, where it’s used in ways that can be beneficial.” “I think you’ve got to strike that proper balance when you’re looking at these things, between policy that is helping parents get to where they want to go versus policy that is just outright overruling parents,” he explained. Under amended legislation unveiled on Friday, 14- and 15-year-olds would be allowed to hold social media accounts with parental approval, Politico reported. Florida House Speaker Paul Renner (R) touted the latest bill as empowering parents “to control what their children can access online” while also protecting them from “the harm caused by addictive social media platforms.” “It introduces critical parental controls and enforces stronger penalties against social media companies that continue to disregard the well-being of children,” Renner said in a threat on X, formerly known as Twitter. “This legislation will equip our Attorney General and Florida parents with the necessary tools to hold them accountable,” he wrote.

Meta ending Facebook News tab in US, Australia - Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, said Thursday that it will wind down the Facebook News tab in the United States and Australia starting in early April. The decision to get rid of Facebook News, a dedicated tab on the platform that spotlights news coverage, comes as part of an effort to “better align our investments to our products and services people value the most,” Meta said in a blog post. “As a company, we have to focus our time and resources on things people tell us they want to see more of on the platform,” the social media giant said. “We know that people don’t come to Facebook for news and political content — they come to connect with people and discover new opportunities, passions and interests,” it added. Meta similarly discontinued the Facebook News tab in the United Kingdom, France and Germany late last year. The company emphasized on Thursday that Facebook users will still be able to find news on the platform. “People will still be able to view links to news articles on Facebook,” Meta said. “News publishers will continue to have access to their Facebook accounts and Pages, where they can post links to their stories and direct people to their websites, in the same way any other individual or organization can.” Earlier this month, Instagram announced that it would no longer proactively recommend content about politics on both Instagram and Threads, following similar efforts to limit the amount of political content on Facebook. Meta noted that the decision to wind down Facebook News will not impact existing agreements with publishers in Australia, France and Germany, while agreements in the U.S. and U.K. have already expired...

Facebook, Instagram Hit With Outage Across US -- A major outage appears to have rocked Meta's social media platforms on Tuesday morning across the US. Folks report that both Instagram and Facebook display "failure to load" error pages. What a coincidence that Facebook, Instagram, and Youtube are down on Super Tuesday Practice run for November? pic.twitter.com/5rIu1pQAE4 Users are being logged out and are unable to log back in, nor connect to the service at all. According to the outage tracking website Downdetector, Facebook, Instagram, and Messenger began experiencing disruptions around 1000 ET. Facebook outages are being reported in New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and other major metro areas in the US. The status and outages of Meta business products are listed below:

Facebook, Instagram outages affect users worldwide -Social media platforms owned by Meta experienced outage issues Tuesday, affecting users around the world. Meta spokesperson Andy Stone said a “technical” issue was the culprit for the difficulties users encountered and it has been resolved.“Earlier today, a technical issue caused people to have difficulty accessing some of our services,” Stone wrote on X at midday. “We resolved the issue as quickly as possible for everyone who was impacted, and we apologize for any inconvenience.”Users trying to access Facebook found themselves logged out when trying to use the platform on desktop, while mobile users were met with a message saying their session had expired. Instagram users were able to access content on the platform, but they received notifications that they were unable to refresh their feeds. Desktop users encountered the message “Something went wrong.” Thousands of people also found issues with trying to use Facebook Messenger. Users of Threads, another platform owned by Meta, were not able to access their homepages, affecting thousands of people, according to DownDetector.Meta status page showed “major disruptions” for Facebook & Instagram Shops, Meta Admin Center, Facebook Login, Graph API, WhatsApp Business API and Marketing API, as of 11:53 a.m. EST.It is not immediately clear what caused the issues.

Trust in AI companies drops to 35 percent in new study --Trust in artificial intelligence (AI) companies has dipped to 35 percent over a five-year period in the U.S., according to new data.The data, released Tuesday by public relations firm Edelman, found that trust in AI companies also dropped globally by eight points, going from 61 percent to 53 percent. The dwindling confidence in the rapidly-developing tech industry comes as regulators in the U.S. and across the globe are brainstorming solutions on how to regulate the sector. When broken down my political party, researchers found Democrats showed the most trust in AI companies at 38 percent — compared to Republicans’ 24 percent and independents’ 25 percent, per the study.Multiple factors contributed to the decline in trust toward the companies polled in the data, according to Justin Westcott, Edelman’s chair of global technology.“Key among these are fears related to privacy invasion, the potential for AI to devalue human contributions, and apprehensions about unregulated technological leaps outpacing ethical considerations,” Westcott said, adding “the data points to a perceived lack of transparency and accountability in how AI companies operate and engage with societal impacts.”Technology as a whole is losing its lead in trust among sectors, Edelman said, highlighting the key findings from the study.“Eight years ago, technology was the leading industry in trust in 90 percent of the countries we study,” researchers wrote, referring to the 28 countries. “Now it is most trusted only in half.”Westcott argued the findings should be a “wake up call” for AI companies to “build back credibility through ethical innovation, genuine community engagement and partnerships that place people and their concerns at the heart of AI developments.”As for the impacts on the future for the industry as a whole, “societal acceptance of the technology is now at a crossroads,” he said, adding that trust in AI and the companies producing it should be seen “not just as a challenge, but an opportunity.”Priorities, Westcott continued, should revolve around ethical practices, transparency and a “relentless focus” on the benefits to society AI can provide.

‘Bitcoin surges to new record high as mainstream money flows into crypto | CNN Business— Bitcoin surged to an all-time high Tuesday, shaking off a more-than-two-year rut that had put the future of the entire crypto ecosystem in question.Bitcoin, the world’s oldest — and by far the largest — digital currency, traded above $69,000 Tuesday morning, topping the previous record of $68,789 reached on November 10, 2021, according to CoinMarketCap.Over the past several months, bitcoin’s rally has been turbocharged by US regulators’ approval of exchange-traded funds pegged to the digital asset, which created an on-ramp for more traditional investors to incorporate bitcoin into their portfolios.That approval took years of lobbying by crypto firms, and was granted only grudgingly by the Securities and Exchange Commission after a court ruled the regulator’s reasons for rejecting bitcoin ETF applications were “arbitrary and capricious.”The first 11 “spot” bitcoin ETFs — which track the real-time market price of the asset — launched in January. After just a month, the ETFs had spurred more than $4.2 billion in net new flows, according to Bloomberg.ETFs are investment tools that track a basket of assets but trade like a stock. Part of the appeal of a bitcoin ETF is that investors can get exposure to bitcoin through their usual brokerage firm, rather than having to set up a digital wallet through a cryptocurrency exchange.Bitcoin is a bellwether for the broader $2 trillion crypto industry, whose reputation has been pummeled by a series of negative headline-making events: high-profile bankruptcies of exchanges and lenders, volatile price swings and the prosecution of Sam Bankman-Fried, a onetime crypto celebrity who was convicted in November of stealing billions of dollars from customers on his FTX exchange, which collapsed in late 2022.Bitcoin, which accounts for more than half of all cryptos in circulation, is up more than 200% over the past 12 months, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bank of America, Wells Fargo offer access to bitcoin ETFs --Bank of America's Merrill Lynch and Wells Fargo's brokerage division are offering wealth management clients access to exchange-traded funds tied to the spot price of bitcoin, highlighting the growing focus on cryptocurrency across the banking industry. The two banks have been extending the approved ETFs to brokerage clients who specifically request access since the products were greenlit by the Securities and Exchange Commission in January, as reported by Bloomberg last week. The price of bitcoin, more than $65,000 as of Monday, has continued to rise since late January's valuation of ~$40,000 per coin and recently broke its all-time high of $68,999 on Tuesday.Representatives from Wells Fargo confirmed that spot bitcoin ETFs are available for unsolicited purchases — those brought to a broker by a client rather than the other way around — through an advisor with Wells Fargo Advisors or through the bank's online WellsTrade platform. A representative for Bank of America declined to comment.Shortly after the SEC's decision, many trading platforms like Robinhood quickly pivoted to allow customers interested in the products to begin trading as soon as the next day. UBS was also in the wave of companies flocking to the newly-approved index funds. Other banks and investment firms, however, have been resistant to the allure of cryptocurrencyin favor of more tried-and-true financial products.Janel Jackson, global head of ETF Capital Markets and Broker and Index Relations for the registered investment advisory firm Vanguard, said the company has no plans to launch its own ETF or support the future purchase of crypto-related products through its brokerage platform."In Vanguard's view, crypto is more of a speculation than an investment. … This is at the root of our decision to not offer crypto products, whether our own or others," Jackson said in aJanuary blog post. Clients can still keep and sell currently-owned crypto investments.Despite Vanguard standing fast on cryptocurrency, Jackson said the company is interested in the underlying blockchain technology supporting digital asset trading and is "actively involved in research" to employ the technology.

BankThink: Banks and fintechs need to share data to combat first-party fraud | American Banker --Organized cyberattacks, phishing scams and identity theft are among the afflictions of modern digital life. Financial institutions and fintechs alike have many processes in place to deal with these threats from third parties. What's much more difficult to detect and address is instanceswhen individuals use their own identity to commit a dishonest act for personal gain. This fraud is the digital equivalent of shoplifting. It's when a person disputes an ATM transaction where the money was actually withdrawn. Or disputes a credit card transaction for goods they purchased, but changed their mind about and were too lazy to return. It's when you tell Uber or DoorDash you didn't receive the chicken wings you're greedily munching on while making the dispute. This form of crime is called "first-party fraud" and it's growing rapidly in the United States. According to a recent survey that combined consumer polling with an analysis of hundreds of millions of online transactions, a full 40% of people surveyed said they knew someone who had committed this form of fraud. Remarkably, more than one in three admitted to having done it themselves.Most people in this country would never shoplift a candy bar from their corner store. However, behind the security of a computer screen, millions of people seem to not think twice about borrowing money they don't intend to repay or telling Amazon they never received the parka they now wear every wintry day.And in way too many cases, they get away with the fraud. That's because proving the fraud and seeking restitution would typically be more time-consuming and expensive for the business than just writing it off.For those who think that this is a victimless crime, it's not. The victims include banks, credit card companies and online businesses, but also you and I and everyone else who pays higher interest rates and inflated prices as U.S. businesses recoup $100 billion a year in losses from first-party fraud.Gen Zers have grown up interacting in a virtual world and because they aren't interacting face-to-face, their online behavior is often more transgressive and risky than anything most people would do in person. Results from our survey showed that over half (52%) of Gen Zers said they would commit first-party fraud if they knew there would be no negative consequences. Nearly one in five (19%) don't even consider it unethical — three times higher than baby boomers (6%). What's more, nearly one in three of the Gen Zers in the survey admitted to making a purchase through a BNPL loan without intending to pay it back.

FDIC reports bumpy 4Q for banks, warns of credit risks ahead — Bank profits fell more than 40% from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported Thursday as agency Chairman Martin Gruenberg reiterated his concerns about credit risks in commercial real estate and credit card lending. That said, the industry's full-year net income of $257 billion exceeded pre-pandemic averages and decreased only 2.3% from 2022 amid fears of a recession that didn't materialize. "The U.S. economy sustained growth in 2023 that exceeded expectations, and the banking industry remained resilient after a period of liquidity stress earlier last year," FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg said at a news conference to unveil the agency's latest quarterly banking profile. Yet "deterioration on certain loan portfolios, particularly office space and other types of CRE loans, warrants monitoring." Community banks sustained a slightly higher year-over-year decline than the overall industry. They reported net income of $26.6 billion in 2023 — a 7.1% decrease from 2022. The FDIC provided these and other industrywide metrics as part of its fourth-quarter report that aggregated data from more than 4,000 banks and savings firms insured by the agency. Banks reported $38.4 billion of net income for the fourth quarter, a 44% drop from the third quarter that the agency partly attributed to higher provisions for loan losses and lower fee income. However, the FDIC noted that roughly 70% of the linked-quarter decline was driven by nonrecurring, noninterest expenses at big firms such as goodwill impairment charges and the FDIC's special deposit insurance assessment in March in response to the banking crisis. The industry's net interest margin — the spread between the rates banks pay depositors in interest and the rates they collect on loans — fell 2 basis points to 3.28% in the fourth quarter compared with three months earlier. The agency said liability costs — including those on deposits and nondeposits alike — more than surpassed asset-yield growth. Notwithstanding the dip, the industry's NIM remained 3 basis points above the pre-pandemic average of 3.25%. Conversely, community banks' NIM — 3.35% in the fourth quarter — remained 28 basis points below pre-COVID levels but held steady since Sept. 30. Gruenberg warned that despite banks' continued high earnings, credit card and commercial real estate portfolios pose a risk. During the final three months of 2023, those two credit segments drove a 4-basis point increase in the industrywide noncurrent loans ratio to 0.86%.

Wall Street Mega Banks Have Created a Circular Firing Squad with Credit Derivatives and Capital Relief Trades – with the Fed’s Blessing By Pam and Russ Martens: On June 11, 2015, the Office of Financial Research (OFR) released a sobering report on how banks were reducing their requirements to hold adequate capital against potential losses by engaging in non-transparent “capital relief trades” with potentially questionable counterparties. The OFR researchers summarized the problem as follows:“Capital relief transactions may have benefits to banks. But, even if real risk transfer is involved, these transactions can pose financial stability concerns by increasing interconnectedness, transforming credit risk into counterparty risk, and obscuring capital adequacy to investors and counterparties. And while bank supervisors have extensive data about banks, they may have less information about the nonbanks who are selling credit risk to those banks and ultimately bearing the risk of loss.”The Office of Financial Research was created under the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation of 2010 to make sure that Wall Street mega banks could never again ravage the economy and financial system of the United States — as they did in 2008 – by engaging in reckless derivative trades and toxic bets. OFR describes its mission as follows:“Our job is to shine a light in the dark corners of the financial system to see where risks are going, assess how much of a threat they might pose, and provide policymakers with financial analysis, information, and evaluation of policy tools to mitigate them.”Buried in the June 2015 OFR report was a bombshell. When JPMorgan Chase was initiating hundreds of billions of dollars in risky derivative trades in London in 2012, using deposits from its federally-insured bank in the U.S., it was attempting to engage in tricked-up capital relief trades. The insanity of this gamesmanship resulted in $6.2billion in losses at the bank; an investigation by the FBI; embarrassing Senate hearings;a scathing 300-page report by the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations; charges of engaging in “unsafe and unsound” banking practices by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency; and the payment of $920 million in fines to its regulators.Credit derivatives are frequently used in capital relief trades. In an effort to curb thetrillions of dollars in credit derivatives that the Wall Street mega banks are using for non-transparent purposes with non-transparent counterparties, on July 27 of last year the FDIC, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), and the Federal Reserve released a proposal to require higher capital levels at banks with $100 billion or more in assets; (only 37 banks would be impacted). Community banks will not be impacted at all by the new proposals according to the federal regulators.On September 12, 2023, the banking cartel made its anger and intention to push back known in a 7-page letter. The cartel demanded that the three federal agencies turn over all “evidence and analyses the agencies relied on” in making the proposal.One of the signatories to the letter was the Bank Policy Institute (BPI), whose Board of Directors consists of the CEOs of the biggest banks. BPI is Chaired by none other than Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO of the notorious London Whale bank, JPMorgan Chase.BPI next launched an ad campaign that grossly distorted what the increase in capital would do, claiming that it would harm working families. (The mega banks that will be most impacted are the same mega banks that blew up the U.S. economy in 2008; put millions of Americans out of work; left millions of working families in foreclosure; got a secret $29 trillion bailout from the Federal Reserve; and then used big chunks of that bailout money to lavish million-dollar bonuses on bank executives.)Sixteen days after the big bank cartel had posted its September 12, 2023 letter attacking the newly proposed increase in capital rules, the Federal Reserve issued a suspiciously timed announcement of how banks could game the newly-proposed capital rules, with the Fed’s blessing, through the use of a specific style of capital relief trade. The Fed wrote as follows:“In some synthetic securitizations, a Board-regulated institution transfers the risk of a reference portfolio of on-balance sheet exposures to a special purpose vehicle using a guarantee or credit derivative. The special purpose vehicle issues credit-linked notes to investors, and the Board-regulated institution takes the cash proceeds of the notes as collateral supporting the special purpose vehicle’s performance on the guarantee or credit derivative.“Under the Board’s capital rule, a Board-regulated institution can recognize the credit risk mitigation of the collateral on the reference portfolio under the rules for synthetic securitizations provided that the requirements in section 41 or 141, as applicable (12 CFR 217.41, .141), are met and that the transactions satisfy the definition of ‘synthetic securitization’ (12 CFR 217.2, ‘synthetic securitization’).”

Puerto Rican bank seeks $150 million in damages in Fed lawsuit - A Puerto Rican bank that filed a lawsuit against the Federal Reserve System last year is now seeking $150 million in damages from the central bank.In an amendment filed in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York last week, Banco San Juan Internacional claims that actions by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York caused it to experience a "precipitous loss of business and clients."Representatives from the Board and New York Fed both declined to comment on the amended complaint on Monday. The litigation stems from the New York Fed's decision last year to terminate Banco San Juan's master account — which provided access to national payments systems and the Fed's other financial services — due to money laundering concerns. The bank argues that such concerns are baseless and "pretextual," belying what they argue is the Fed's true concern: nontraditional banking models. Based in Guaynabo, Puerto Rico, Banco San Juan Internacional, or BSJI, is chartered as an international banking entity, or IBE, a classification that is unique to the U.S. territory. The license, which is issued by Puerto Rico's regulator, the Oficina del Comisionado de Instituciones Financieras, or OCIF, limits the bank to taking deposits from non-residents. The OCIF is BSJI's sole regulator, it is not supervised by a federal agency. In its latest filing, the bank argues that the Fed has overstepped its bounds in recent years by exerting regulatory authority over state- and territory-chartered banks, a departure from its longstanding approach to payments access."With no accountability, transparency or oversight, the Fed upended a century of public policy underpinning our financial system," said Eric Bloom, BSJI's general counsel, in a press release. "Congress requires a level playing field — every eligible depository institution is entitled to a master account. This is based on critical U.S. policy considerations that are not up to the Fed to ignore."

U.S. Bancorp sheds consent order inherited from Union Bank --Fifteen months after completing its acquisition of MUFG Union Bank, U.S. Bancorp has been freed from a regulatory action that it inherited as part of the deal. The consent order, which addressed problems with the Japanese-owned bank's information security and operational risk controls, was terminated earlier this week by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.Analysts at Piper Sandler described the OCC's decision as a positive development for U.S. Bancorp, though they also said in a note to clients that the enforcement action has not been a factor for the Minneapolis-based company's recent stock price.Shares in the $663 billion-asset banking company are down 1.4% this year. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks the performance of large and regional banks, is up 2.2% since Jan. 1.The OCC enacted the consent order on Sept. 20, 2021 — one day before U.S. Bank's parent company announced an $8 billion deal to acquire Union Bank from Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group.When the OCC later gave its conditional approval for the merger, it stated that "U.S. Bank's stronger technology systems … should correct many of the underlying concerns" that led to the 2021 consent order.The bank's sale eventually closed in December 2022, or about six months after executives initially projected. The Union Bank conversion was completed last summer, U.S. Bancorpofficials have said.The termination of the September 2021 consent order comes nine months after U.S. Bancorpagreed to settle separate allegations by the OCC that Union deceived customers about three different kinds of fees.

NYCB Announces $1BN Equity Infusion, Fmr Tsy Sec Mnuchin Joins Board - Bloomberg reports that New York Community Bancorp plans to announce an equity investment of more than $1 billion led by Steven Mnuchin’s Liberty Strategic Capital, Hudson Bay Capital and Reverence Capital Partners, according to a spokesperson for the bank. Liberty will invest $450 million, Hudson Bay $250 million and Reverence $200 million as part of the transaction, the spokesperson said. In connection with the deal, NYCB will reduce the board to nine members, adding new directors, including Mnuchin and Joseph Otting, former comptroller of the currency. Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated: "In evaluating this investment, we were mindful of the Bank's credit risk profile. With the over $1 billion of capital invested in the Bank, we believe we now have sufficient capital should reserves need to be increased in the future to be consistent with or above the coverage ratio of NYCB's large bank peers."Non-Executive Chairman Sandro DiNello stated, "We welcome the approach that Liberty and its partners took in its evaluation of the Bank and look forward to incorporating their insights going forward. The strategic investment involving former Secretary Steven Mnuchin, former Comptroller Joseph Otting and Milton Berlinski, along with the other institutional investors is a positive endorsement of the turnaround that is underway and allows us to execute on our strategy from a position of strength. We enter this next chapter with a strong balance sheet and liquidity position supported by a diversified and retail focused deposit base. Our new leadership team, with the support of the reconstituted Board, will continue to take the actions that are necessary to improve earnings, profitability and drive enhanced value for shareholders."Secretary Mnuchin stated, "We decided to make this investment because we believe Sandro, alongside new management, has taken the appropriate actions to stabilize the Company and to position NYCB to become a best-in-class $100+ billion national bank with a diversified and de-risked business model that supports long term profitability. We are delighted that former Comptroller Otting will be NYCB's new CEO and believe that the actions taken by NYCB establish a strong foundation for future growth through our new relationship with other new Board members and investors. We are confident that NYCB is poised to generate sustainable shareholder value."The question, of course, is just how diluted the current equity holders just got... In connection with the equity capital raise transaction, NYCB will sell and issue, in the aggregate, to the Investors shares of common stock of the Company at a price per share of $2.00 and a series of convertible preferred stock with a conversion price of $2.00, for an aggregate investment amount of $1.05 billion. In addition, investors will receive 60% warrant coverage to purchase non-voting, common-equivalent stock with an exercise price of $2.50 per share, a 25% premium to the price paid on common stock.NYCB was trading at $1.86 before the halt (but that sounds like a lot of dilution above).

Steve Mnuchin, Trump’s Treasury Secretary/Foreclosure Kingpin, Joins with Hedge Fund Guys to Grab a Teetering, Federally-Insured Bank for $2 a Share -By Pam and Russ Martens -- Former Trump Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, has teamed up with his pals from his days as a foreclosure kingpin at OneWest and assorted hedge funds/private equity guys, to pull a coup d’etat at the teetering New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), parent of Flagstar Bank. A press release from NYCB yesterday confirmed that Mnuchin and his pals would be injecting $1 billion in equity at a purchase price of $2 a share for NYCB, massively diluting existing shareholders whose share price on the last trading day of last year was $10.23. (For why shares of NYCB have been in free fall this year, see our report on Tuesday: New York Community Bancorp Was JPMorgan’s Top Regional Bank Pick for 2024; It’s Lost 73 Percent Y-T-D and Had Its Deposit Rating Downgraded to Junk.)Buttressing Mnuchin’s audacity, he will put himself and three of the other investing pals on the Board of NYCB, giving his team four votes on a Board he plans to shrink from 12 members to 9, according to the press release.In addition, Mnuchin’s foreclosure pal from his days at OneWest, Joseph Otting (whom Trump had made the head of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the regulator of national banks) will become the CEO of NYCB, replacing the existing CEO who just took his seat at the helm of NYCB last Friday. (The bank is now changing its CEO as often as some people change their socks.) Otting is to also have a seat on the NYCB Board of Directors.Trading in the shares of NYCB was so chaotic yesterday that the New York Stock Exchange halted trading 13 times for reasons of limit-up or limit-down, and once for news pending. The share price gyrated yesterday from an all-time low of $1.70 to close at $3.46. To grasp what is really going on here, we need to look back at what happened at Mnuchin’s Senate confirmation hearing when President Donald Trump picked him to become U.S. Treasury Secretary – a post which would simultaneously make Mnuchin the head of the Financial Stability Oversight Council (F-SOC), allowing him to approve or disapprove vast Wall Street bailouts by the Federal Reserve. (See our previous report:The Language Toomey Inserted into the Stimulus Bill Enshrines a $681 Billion Trading Slush Fund for Mnuchin with the NY Fed.) Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon had this to say about the practices of OneWest under Mnuchin: “In early 2009, Mr. Mnuchin led a group of investors that purchased a bank called IndyMac [which had also collapsed in share price], renaming it OneWest. OneWest was truly unique. While Mr. Mnuchin was CEO, the bank proved it could put more vulnerable people on the street faster than just about anybody else around.“While he was CEO, a OneWest vice president admitted in a court proceeding to ‘robo-signing’ upward of 750 foreclosure documents a week. She spent less than 30 seconds on each, and in fact, she had shortened her signature to speed the process along. Investigations found that the bank frequently mishandled documents and skipped over reviewing them. All it took to plunge families into the nightmare of potentially losing their homes was 30 seconds of sloppy paperwork and a few haphazard signatures.“These kinds of tactics were in use between 2009 and 2014, a period during which the bank foreclosed on more than 35,000 homes. ‘Widow foreclosures’ on reverse mortgages – OneWest did more of those than anybody else. The bank defends its record on loan modifications, but it was found guilty of an illegal practice known as ‘dual tracking.’ One bank department tells homeowners to stop making payments so they can pursue modification, while another department presses on and hurtles them into foreclosure anyway.”

PNC CEO: 'Regulation is uneven' between OCC, other agencies --PNC Financial Services Group CEO Bill Demchak said the bank failures that rocked the industry last spring would not have happened at institutions if they had been regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency."Regulatory arbitrage" is leading to banks across the country being held to different standards, Demchak said at a Tuesday event hosted by Brookings about last year's bank collapses. He said that institutions can "charter shop" to find softer regulators, like the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, the respective supervisors of the failed First Republic Bank and Silicon Valley Bank."My primary lesson learned was that regulation is uneven," Demchak said. "It astounded me what First Republic and Silicon Valley were able to do…Regulators didn't do their job…Bluntly, if that was an OCC bank, that never would have happened." First Republic and SVB collapsed last spring under pressure from a confluence of deposit runs, industry concentrations and underwater investments. Demchak said that while executive management of the banks was ineffective, regulators should have seen obvious warning signs. SVB's bond portfolio, which the bank ultimately sold at a $1.8 billion loss due to interest rate increases, should have been a "red flag" to supervisors, he added. The struggles of New York Community Bancorp, whose stock price has tumbled nearly 70% since the start of the year, is another example of inconsistent supervision, Demchak said. As part of the Long Island bank's acquisition of Flagstar Bancorp in 2022, it converted to a national bank, meaning its lead federal regulator became the OCC instead of the FDIC. The combined bank later surpassed $100 billion of assets, triggering more stringent regulatory requirements set for bigger banks.The additional scrutiny by the OCC reportedly teed off its recent pains, which Demchak said was "telling."Travis Lan, deputy chief financial officer at New Jersey-based Valley National Bancorp, told American Banker last month that being under the OCC's supervision helps his bank's risk profile."The OCC has been our regulator for, I think, as long as anyone here can remember," Lan said. "There is a different level of scrutiny that comes with that."

Powell: 'Broad and material changes' coming to Basel III proposal The Federal Reserve's Basel III endgame proposal will likely face significant amendments before being finalized. During testimony in front of the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects "broad and material" changes will be made to the proposal before the rule is finalized. He added that withdrawing the rule altogether — something called for by several Republican lawmakers — and putting forth a new proposal is a "live option" under consideration."The question we get is reproposal and I will say we haven't made that decision but if, when we reach that point, that turns out to be the appropriate thing, we won't hesitate to do it," Powell said. "It's a very plausible option. It will depend on how things lie when we reach that point."The revelation that Powell was open to significant changes to the proposal, which would amend risk-based capital standards for all banks with at least $100 billion of assets, was welcomed by large banks. Trade groups for the industry have been waging a costly and public opposition campaign against the package."We are encouraged by Chair Powell's comments on the Fed's review of the broad stakeholder comments on the capital proposal," said Kevin Fromer, CEO of the large bank industry group Financial Services Forum, in a statement. "We agree, broad and material changes are needed to the proposal to avoid significant harm to the economy, businesses of every size and American households. To achieve that, we continue to believe that a re-proposal is the best approach to giving the public a well-justified and data-based rule that is consistent with the plans of other jurisdictions."Powell said the Fed Board of Governors is in the process of reviewing the nearly 400 public comments about the proposal, which was put forth last summer. He acknowledged that the vast majority — 97% according to analysis by the law firm Latham & Watkins — of feedback was made in opposition to some or all of the proposed rule. "It's unlike anything I've seen," Powell said.During the three-hour hearing, the Fed chair noted that the board is still in the process of absorbing the commentary and is just beginning to think about potential changes to the proposal.At various points during the hearing, Powell flagged the risk capital treatment of mortgage origination, derivatives clearing — particularly for contracts impacting agriculture commodities — and the overall impact on financial markets as areas of potential changes. He noted that many of these issues were already on the Fed's radar and were included in the questions presented to the public alongside the proposal.Powell also recognized the possibility that the framework — which would apply many regulatory requirements that were previously limited to global systemically important banks to all institutions with more than $100 billion of assets — could lead to more uniformity in the business models used by banks."I think it's a real concern," Powell said. "And, again, that's something that goes into my thinking, certainly, about the proposal and where it needs to go."Powell also committed to factor in additional comments that will be collected relating to a quantitative impact study on the proposed capital framework. The study, which invited banks to submit data about how they would be impacted by the new standards, was launched in October and closed in January, the same time as the comment period on the proposal.

House Republicans call on bank regulators to withdraw Basel proposal — Top banking House Republicans are urging banking regulators to withdraw their Basel III endgame proposal and to resubmit a revised rule, according to a letter obtained by American Banker. The letter, led by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., and Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., chairman of the subcommittee on financial institutions and monetary policy, is an escalation in longstanding Republican and industry pushback to the Basel rule. Increasingly, industry groups are looking to regulators to withdraw and restart the proposal, instead of just making tweaks to the final rule from the proposed version. The lawmakers' letter comes just ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony in front of the full committee for his semiannual testimony on monetary policy. Powell, who's expected to hear criticisms about the proposal from Republicans — and even some narrower concerns from Democratic lawmakers — will also appear on Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee. Comment letters from the banking, energy and housing industry decried the rule — which would raise capital requirements considerably for the largest banks — on a number of grounds, including including what critics called the unsound methodology behind several assertions and regulators' failure to follow Administrative Procedure Act process requirements. Republican lawmakers have asked repeatedly about the justification for some of the proposal's toughest elements. "Those comments came from across the ideological spectrum and from a broad base of sectors," the lawmakers said in their Wednesday letter to the regulators. "This broad-based opposition makes clear that it is not just the banking industry crying wolf against heightened capital requirements." The lawmakers, in their letter to Powell, acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg, asked that a new proposal include "rigorous quantitative analysis," which the lawmakers believe the original proposal lacks, and be introduced first as an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking, "and then proceed through the rulemaking process with transparency." Regulators, in October, extended the comment period on the proposal and asked for additional information from banks that is not shared through public filings or disclosures."It is now unclear how the agencies will proceed or what the timeline may be for further development of the proposal," the lawmakers said in the letter. "To begin, there has been little clarity or transparency with Congress or the American people as to when or how the agencies will release the information collected from the banks or seek comment on whatever future analysis your agencies conduct using that information." The lawmakers also said that an attempt to "simply recalibrate the proposal," rather than substantially review public comments and start the rulemaking process over, would "open your agencies to criticism for rushing the process to avoid accountability under the Congressional Review Act." "Given the impact that the flawed proposal would have on the banking industry and the American economy, your agencies must provide greater clarity on what your plans are moving forward, and how you intend to take public comments into account," the lawmakers said. "We believe that the right path forward is to withdraw this flawed proposal and encourage you to do so." A Fed spokesperson said that the Fed has received the letter and plans to respond.

Powell: ‘There will be bank failures’ caused by commercial real estate losses - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday he expects to see some banks fail due to their exposure to the commercial real estate sector, which has declined significantly in value following the shift to remote work. Powell said the banks that are in trouble with falling office space and retail assets are not the big banks, which were designated as “systemically important” in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. That episode, which resulted in a taxpayer bailout of the financial sector, was also triggered by unsound real estate assets. Rather, the banks at risk of failure now Powell identified as smaller and medium-sized. “This is a problem we’ll be working on for years more, I’m sure. There will be bank failures,” he said during a Thursday hearing on the Fed’s monetary policy in the Senate Banking Committee. “It’s not a first-order issue for any of the very large banks. It’s more smaller and medium-sized banks that have these issues. We’re working with them. We’re getting through it. I think it’s manageable, is the word I would use,” he said. Powell didn’t go into detail about the specific regulatory actions regarding commercial real estate exposure that are now being undertaken by the Fed, which is both the federal currency issuer and one of the primary bank supervising agencies, though he did say he had identified the banks most at risk. “We are in dialogue with them: Do you have your arms around this problem? Do you have enough capital? Do you have enough liquidity? Do you have a plan? You’re going to take losses here — are you being truthful with yourself and with your owners?” he said. Commercial real estate investment trusts, known as REITs, have taken a hit over the past few months. Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Boston Properties, Kilroy Realty Corp., and Vornado Realty trust are all in negative territory since the beginning of the year. Powell described the decline in value of commercial real estate as a result of remote work following the economic shutdowns of the pandemic as a “secular change” in the economy. “In many cities, the downtown office district is very underpopulated. There are empty buildings in many major and minor cities. It also means that all the retail that was there to serve those thousands and thousands of people who work in those buildings, they’re under pressure, too,” he said. While the decline of commercial real estate values could put some banks out of business, Powell expressed confidence that the Fed and financial regulators would be able to contain the fallout and prevent a broader crisis. Thirty-four U.S. banks have failed since 2015, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), which insures deposits at regulated banks. The Fed and Treasury Department also jumped into action last year to bail out Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, and extend lifelines to other troubled banks as they threatened broader confidence in the banking system.

Senator Elizabeth Warren Calls Fed Chair Powell “Weak-Kneed”; Says He Is “Driving Efforts Inside the Fed” to Gut Higher Capital Requirements - By Pam and Russ Martens -- Engaged Americans are watching in real time a replay of how Wall Street mega banks in 2008 created the worst financial collapse since the Great Depression, then used their campaign money and lobbying clout to intimidate Congress and the Obama administration into passing the pathetically watered down financial “reform” legislation known as Dodd-Frank in 2010. The Fed has been bailing out the mega banks’ excesses and casino style of banking ever since. The same dynamic is playing out today with the proposal by three federal banking regulators (the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve) to strengthen the capital requirements on the 37 largest banks in the U.S. – less than one percent of all banks in the U.S. Yesterday, heads exploded at bank watchdog groups when Fed Chair Powell testified before the House Financial Services Committee and stated that the higher capital proposal submitted by the three federal banking regulators last July was going to receive “material and broad changes.” Today, Powell appeared before the Senate Banking Committee for his regularly scheduled Semiannual Monetary Policy Report. After Republicans on the Committee gushed over Powell’s willingness to rethink, redraft or repropose the capital rules, it came time for Senator Elizabeth Warren to question Powell. When it comes to Wall Street banks and their history of looting the public, as well as the public purse, there is no one more knowledgeable or engaged in Congress than Senator Warren.Warren is no fan of Jerome Powell to begin with. But today, she was particularly incensed that after Powell had promised last year to support the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, in making reforms to prevent more bank runs and systemic contagion as occurred in the spring of last year, Powell was now caving to pressure from the banking industry.Senator Warren said the 37 largest banks that would be impacted by the higher capital rules have “spent tens of millions of dollars running ads during Sunday night football and millions more for an army of lobbyists to try to twist arms here in Congress.”The TV ads have been grossly misleading, making it sound like the higher capital requirements at just 37 banks would hurt working families and farmers – ignoring that inadequate capital levels collapsed giant Wall Street banks in 2008 and put millions of innocent Americans out of work and in foreclosure as the U.S. economy collapsed along with the toxic debt bombs exploding at the banks.Warren said this to Powell today: “Despite all you said last year when the banks failed about supporting Vice Chair Barr’s recommendations to strengthen rules for big banks, public reporting now says that you are driving efforts inside the Fed to weaken the capital rule. You even told the House Financial Services Committee representatives yesterday that you think it’s ‘very plausible’ that you withdraw the rule.”Warren concluded with this:“You are the leader of the Fed and when the heat was on last year, you talked a lot about getting tougher on the banks. But now the giant banks are unhappy about that and you’ve gone weak-kneed on this. The American people need a leader at the Fed who has the courage to stand up to these banks and protect our financial system.”

House Democrats urge bank regulators to crack down on bank mergers --Rep. Maxine Waters, ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, led the letter, spurred by the recent merger announcement between Capital One and Discover, which the letter said would enable the merged company "to influence multiple points of the marketplace."Congressional banking committees held numerous hearings, and many members of Congress proffered compensation reform measures. The Senate Banking Committee approved one of these, known as the RECOUP Act. This bill empowers federal officials to claw back compensation in the case of failures due to mismanagement. It won the support of nearly the entire committee in a 21-2 vote. But election year politics may determine the fate of the RECOUP Act. Still, even if the RECOUP Act doesn't move through Congress at the necessary pace, regulators have a remedy. They can deploy a long-neglected statute from the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Section 956 of that law provides that regulators can bar compensation plans that lead to "inappropriate" risk taking.Bonus-fueled fraud led to the 2008 financial crash. It also played a key role in a great deal of banker misconduct since then: JP Morgan's London Whale loss, Goldman Sachs' Malaysia bribery crime and Wells Fargo's fake accounts scandal, to name a few.Finalizing this statute should be a priority. In fact, Congress emphasized the importance of this rule by setting an implementation deadline in May 2011.

KPMG faces fresh questions over audits after New York Community turmoil -The recent turmoil at New York Community Bancorp is raising more questions about its auditor KPMG, which last year faced scrutiny over its audits of three now-defunct regional banks.KPMG has built up a large business auditing U.S. banks and had long audited Long Island-based New York Community. The bank's stock is down nearly 70% this year after a series of disclosures that have troubled investors. Last week, it replaced its CEO, filled leadership vacancies in its internal risk and audit departments and disclosed weaknesses in internal controls over its financial reports. The latter disclosure seemingly conflicts with an audit KPMG performed in 2022, when KPMG said the bank's internal controls were effective.The facts over KPMG's audits aren't public, making it hard to gauge whether auditors rightfully pushed back as New York Community quickly grew in 2023. But the bank's disclosures of weaknesses are the latest headache for KPMG, which audited all three of the regional banks that failed last year: Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. "There's no excuse for it," said Francine McKenna, a former KPMG consultant whose The Dignewsletter focuses on accounting issues. Debates over KPMG's audits of those three banks — and now, the struggling New York Community — center around whether auditors are to blame for poor decision-making by the banks, or whether the blame lies solely on CEOs. A full answer on that question is not yet clear, but all four cases highlight the perils of rapid growth.When growing quickly, banks' risk management and financial reporting effectiveness must "keep pace with their growth in assets," said Kiridaran Kanagaretnam, a professor at York University in Canada who researches bank accounting.KPMG did not comment on the issues at New York Community. In a statement, KPMG spokesman Russ Grote said the firm has "long had a substantial and dynamic audit practice in the financial services industry." "We conduct our audits in accordance with professional standards, maintaining auditor independence. Due to client confidentiality, we have no specific comment," the KPMG spokesman said.Spokespeople at New York Community did not respond to requests for comment.

BankThink: One year after SVB's collapse, it's time to reform banker pay | American Banker - Sunday will mark the one-year anniversary of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, an event that sent tremors through the banking system as a precipitous run on deposits led to shudders through other regional banks and beyond. Common conversations among ordinary bank customers about whether to withdraw funds dented an industry largely built on faith. Foundational policy questions emerged: Should deposit insurance be refashioned? With the government declaring that all depositors of SVB would be guaranteed, regional banks joined mega-banks with effectively unlimited coverage, stranding customers of smaller banks.Should Congress repeal President Trump's bank deregulation bill, which encouraged SVB and other medium-size banks to grow to new asset levels that lacked enhanced oversight? And are the regional Federal Reserve banks, where bank executives (including the SVB CEO) serve on the board, inherently unable to rein in reckless behavior? A year later, the post-mortems leave many of these questions subject to partisan wrangling. On one repair, though, there's bipartisan agreement: compensation reform.A Public Citizen analysis, affirmed by a subsequent examination by the Federal Reserve, demonstrated that SVB's compensation structure encouraged both reckless growth and interest rate mismanagement.SVB held long-term Treasuries at a time of rising interest rates. To guard against devaluation of these assets, SVB bought a hedge. But with other problems threatening net income — the prime driver of the executive bonuses — SVB sold the hedge. That generated a reportable gain that papered over a loss, but left the bank exposed to the rational response of any sentient investor or depositor able to distinguish between SVB's real problems and its artificial accounting games.Rational, uninsured depositors (with more than $250,000 at the bank) began to leave steadily, and ultimately fled in droves. Hours before the government seized SVB, the bank's board paid out bonuses to senior executives, punctuating a craven declaration that compensation trumps any other consideration in banking conduct.\

BankThink: Whatever happened to deposit insurance reform? | American Banker — I, like many people, have a mental list of things that I need to do. There are immediate items on that list (that reminds me, I need to buy milk on my way home) and there are near-term items that I need to do soon but don't have to do today (which reminds me, I need to file my taxes).And then there are items that are on the list but are neither immediate nor near-term, but more exploratory. A lot of times those things become more urgent as time goes on, but a lot of times my procrastination pays off, and the underlying problem gets resolved on its own or through other, simpler means.A year ago, when depositors at Silicon Valley Bank were pulling their money and the bank itself was rapidly approaching failure, there seemed to be a great deal of urgency in Congress to create some kind of backstop for uninsured deposits. The logic for such reform was pretty apparent: Silicon Valley Bank had a level of uninsured deposits that was bonkers, and the lack of deposit insurance spooked enough tech startups into pulling their money. So if those deposits were insured, the reasoning goes, you wouldn't have a run.Yet here we are today, and whatever urgency used to be evident in the need to expand deposit insurance has evaporated. House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., said Tuesday morning at an event at the Brookings Institution that passage of deposit insurance reform was "highly unlikely" in this Congress — which, incidentally, will be his last — and "the conversations around deposit insurance are not intense." There are very good reasons why those conversations are not intense. The most workable iteration of deposit insurance reform that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. considered in its after action report on the subject involved raising deposit insurance or making deposit insurance unlimited for certain kinds of business accounts that by practical necessity exceed the $250,000 insurance limit — think payroll accounts, for example. This would theoretically insure the bloated accounts without blowing up banks' premiums. But what kinds of accounts might be included in or excluded from that universe is a policy question without a clear answer, and the risk of getting it wrong is that such accounts might end up being used for unintended purposes. That outcome could mean lots more insured deposits, which in turn would yield higher deposit insurance premiums — precisely the outcome that the business account insurance scheme was meant to avoid. All of this is keeping deposit insurance reform from serious consideration, McHenry said. "All these other questions of basic implementation [need to be resolved]," McHenry said. "As policymakers, we usually don't get into the practical question of implementation until very late, but on this we need to start with a practical question."Another cause of death of deposit insurance reform is another item on the post-SVB financial policy to-do list: discount window reform, which might go a long way to solving the bank run problem without making unnecessary distinctions between insured accounts. PNC CEO Bill Demchak, speaking at the same Brookings event Tuesday, said that if banks have ready access to liquidity through the Federal Reserve's discount window, then banks can cover their uninsured deposits, meaning you can stop a run before it starts. "We are afraid of uninsured deposits because they can run. If I have collateral in a right-way discount window, it doesn't matter," Demchak said. "I don't think we need increased deposit insurance. I think that leads to bad behaviors. But I do think you need to have access to a good window with collateral to be able to cover uninsured deposits should they run."The need to improve the mechanism by which banks access liquidity in a crisis has become abundantly apparent since the failures of SVB, Signature and First Republic last year — many banks were not even prepared to access the Fed's discount window. What's more, the Federal Home Loan banks, the lender of second-to-last resort, has its own issues that are being addressed by the Federal Housing Finance Agency as we speak. Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu recently floated a rule that would require large and midsize banks to pre-position collateral at the discount window, and regulators have published guidance to banks on best practices for accessing liquidity in times of stress.

'The Fed has to keep up': McHenry blasts dated discount window tech --The chair of the House Financial Services Committee said the technology behind the Federal Reserve's last resort lending facility is too old to handle 21st century bank runs.Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., said the failure of Silicon Valley Bank last March demonstrated not only how banks were ill-equipped to borrow from the Fed's discount window, but also how far the facility's technology had fallen behind the times. "On the front side, you have a fast bank run based off consumer tech, which is how we live, yet on the back end, the banks are getting provisions of capital in the way they did in the 1940s," McHenry said Tuesday morning during an event hosted by the Brookings Institution. "It should be done with the push of a button rather than a phone call and it should be done in an instant rather than days."Reports from the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. have noted that staffers at both Santa Clara-based Silicon Valley Bank and New York-based Signature Bank struggled to access the discount window during their respective bank runs. Neither bank had tested its ability to borrow from the discount window for more than a year, and they lacked the necessary contracts to transfer assets quickly to the Fed as collateral. In response to these findings, regulators have made speeches and agencies have issued guidanceurging banks to do more to ensure they are discount window-ready. But, McHenry said, such measures would be less arduous if the borrowing process were more "tech-enabled.""Within minutes, they should be able to have their assets and the discount window linked up and the Fed should know," he said. "We do this all the time in the financial markets. Real world players do this and the Fed has to keep up, but they're a generation behind here, maybe more."McHenry was one of several speakers to flag the discount window's shortcomings during the one-year look-back at last spring's bank failures.During a separate panel, Susan McLaughlin, executive fellow of Yale University's Program on Financial Stability, said the discount window likely could not have saved Silicon Valley or Signature from failing, given the deep seated issues on their balance sheets. But, she said, proper borrowing could have slowed the failure process down, buying time for a more orderly resolution and limiting contagion. McLaughlin noted that Silicon Valley had not tested its ability to use the discount window in more than a year and Signature had not tested it in more than five years. The latter did not have the discount window as part of its emergency liquidity plan, she said, concluding that the stigma among investors and analysts about banks that use the discount window has been a significant deterrent to bank readiness."The window can only be effective if banks are willing to use it when they actually need it," she said.

Fed finalizes risk management rule for 'financial market utilities' -The Federal Reserve Board finalized a rule on Friday that updates the risk management practices for the large clearing and settlements service providers that it supervises. The new rule updates Regulation HH, which governs the Fed's oversight of designated systemically important financial market utilities, or FMUs. It changes the requirements for how entities should plan for and respond to operational risks to reflect contemporary challenges.The designation of FMUs was established by the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, which gave the Fed and other agencies enhanced supervisory authority over institutions whose activities are broad enough to threaten financial stability. In total, eight entities have been designated FMUs by the Financial Stability Oversight Council. The Fed supervises two of them: The Clearing House Payments Co. — a payments network owned by the largest banks in the country — and CLS Bank International — a settlement network focused on foreign-exchange transactions. The Fed proposed the change in October 2022 and collected comments on it from the public. It received a total of six comments and made modest adjustments in response to them. The new rule requires those two groups to alert the Fed immediately about operational issues that arise and calls for them to establish criteria for how and when related parties are notified about issues. This provision was largely unchanged from the proposal. It mandates a business continuity plan, which would spell out how FMUs would reestablish service should the operation of their critical services be disrupted. The final version adds a set of minimum standards for how continuity plans will be tested. The rule adds a provision for dealing with operational issues related to third-party affiliates. Monitoring for risks in these types of relationships has been a focal point for bank regulators in recent years. The final rule clarifies the definition of "third-party" relationship, limits the scope of information-sharing requirements and allows for more direct participation from partner groups in business continuity planning. The final component of the rule is a review and testing component. The update adds additional standards for identifying risks and testing processes. This part of the final rule was amended to make clear that entities would not be required to handle all issues in a uniform fashion.

Federal court rules Corporate Transparency Act unconstitutional --On March 1, 2024, Judge Liles Burke of the U.S. District Court in Huntsville, Alabama, held that the Corporate Transparency Act — and the beneficial ownership information reporting mandate it includes — is unconstitutional, because it exceeds the powers granted to Congress by the Constitution. The National Small Business Association and its member, small-business owner Isaac Winkles, brought the lawsuit challenging the CTA, represented by Hughes Hubbard & Reed special counsel Thomas Lee and partner Terence Healy, with co-counsel John Neiman of Maynard Nexsen.The CTA, enacted in late 2020, added a filing burden on small businesses of fewer than 20 employees to disclose BOI to the Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, FinCEN. Failure to comply — intentional or not — could result in up to $10,000 in fines and up to two years in prison. "In our view, Judge Burke correctly ruled that, while well-intentioned, the CTA exceeds the powers given to Congress by the Constitution. This was a high-stakes constitutional litigation involving an unprecedented federal statute with broad potential impact," said Lee. "The Small Business Association brought the only challenge to the law, though many others also criticized it. We are delighted with the outcome." Judge Burke quoted Justice Antonin Scalia who remarked that federal judges should have a rubber stamp that reads "Stupid but constitutional." The inverse is also true, according to Burke — the wisdom of a policy is no guarantee of its constitutionality. This case, which concerns the constitutionality of the Corporate Transparency Act, illustrates this, according to the judge."When Congress passed the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, it included a bill called the Corporate Transparency Act," he wrote in his opinion. "Although the CTA made up just over 21 pages of the NDAA's nearly 1,500-page total, the law packs a significant regulatory punch, requiring most entities incorporated under state law to disclose personal stakeholder information to the Treasury Department's criminal enforcement arm."The broad aim of the requirement — to prevent financial crimes like money laundering and tax evasion — is a worthy goal, according to Burke. Every year, states grant formal status to millions of entities, he observed. "This case presents a deceptively simple question: Does the Constitution give Congress the power to regulate those millions of entities and their stakeholders the moment they obtain a formal corporate status from a state? The government thinks so. While it acknowledges that Congress can exercise only the powers granted to it, the government says that the CTA is within Congress' broad powers to regulate commerce, oversee foreign affairs and national security, and impose taxes and related regulations."

SEC will require companies to disclose emissions, with one glaring gap --After two years of drafting, public comments, and delays, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, finally approved its highly-anticipated climate disclosure rules on Wednesday, laying out new requirements for companies to divulge their climate risks and some of their greenhouse emissions in public filings submitted annually to the agency.The new rules require publicly traded companies to analyze and publish how climate change threatens their business — whether through physical risks like floods and other extreme weather or through “transition risks” like regulation. This is in line with the SEC’s mission to protect investors and maintain “fair, orderly, and efficient markets.”Environmental advocates have welcomed the rules, but with a major caveat. Between the first draft of the SEC’s climate disclosure rules — published in 2022 — and now, the regulator scrapped requirements for companies to reveal greenhouse emissions that stem from the products they sell. These so-called “Scope 3” emissions are often the most significant source of a company’s climate pollution. According to the nonprofit CDP, which runs the world’s most widely used emissions disclosure platform, they make up an average of 75 percent all companies’ emissions.For fossil fuel companies — whose products are the primary driver of climate change — those Scope 3 emissions can make up to 95 percent of their carbon footprint.By excluding Scope 3 emissions from disclosure, “regulators are failing to accurately reflect the best available scientific evidence and heed the risks at hand to the economy,” Laura Peterson, a corporate analyst for the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientists, said in a statement. Charles Slidders, a senior attorney for the nonprofit Center for International Environmental Law,said that the SEC’s approach was “an abdication of the agency’s authority and responsibility to address significant financial risks.”The SEC has been talking about climate disclosure for more than a decade. In 2010, the agency’s five-member board of commissioners voted to provide companies with “interpretive guidance” on existing disclosure rules that might be affected by new climate-related legal and business developments. It started looking into more concrete requirements in 2020 and released the first draft of its disclosure rules in March 2022.Proponents of the new rules point to escalating financial risks from climate change — just last year, the U.S. logged a record-breaking number of climate- and weather-related disasters that cost the county at least $92 billion — and say the SEC must protect investors through more rigorous disclosure requirements, including of Scope 3 emissions. According to the nonprofit Ceres, which advocates for corporate environmental sustainability, 97 percent of investor comments submitted to the SEC favored corporate Scope 3 disclosure as part of the agency’s rules for public companies.Those opposed to stringent disclosure rules, however, say they represent a regulatory overreach by the SEC, and that issues related to climate policy should be left to Congress or to federal environmental agencies. “If Congress meant for the SEC to broadly regulate registrants’ climate change policy, then it would have clearly authorized the Commission to do so,” as the American Petroleum Institute, a lobbying group, said in its 2022comments to the SEC.

Weakened SEC climate-risk filing rule still likely to face litigation — The Securities and Exchange Commission Wednesday finalized a scaled-back version of climate-risk disclosure rules proposed in March 2022, eliciting bipartisan criticism deemed by proponents and opponents by turns as either insufficiently protective or excessively demanding. Yet even with the reduced disclosure framework — which passed the commission by a 3-2 vote — industry experts foresee legal challenges and legislative efforts to undo the rule. "We are increasingly dubious this rule will survive congressional and judicial review despite efforts by the SEC to narrow the proposal," said Jaret Seiberg, an analyst with TD Cowen, in a release.The SEC initially proposed a slate of climate disclosure rules roughly two years ago aimed at compelling public corporations — including many banks — to publicly disclose greenhouse gas emissions generated by their business activities, as well as other climate-related financial risks. In the initial draft of the rules, large corporations would need to disclose both their own greenhouse gas emissions and those generated across their complete distribution networks. Under the final rule, companies will now only need to disclose emissions deemed materially significant to their business, a tangibly lower bar. The final rule also exempts small firms from reporting, whereas the original proposal required all publicly traded corporations to disclose their direct emissions.Democratic lawmakers have advocated for comprehensive disclosure like that included in the original proposal, while industry groups — including banks — pushed back against the proposed Scope 3 emissions reporting, citing practical limitations. Republican lawmakers, including Banking Committee Ranking Member Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and outgoing House Financial Services Chair Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., criticized the SEC's proposal, accusing regulators of advancing progressive climate policies beyond their mandate.Sustainable investing advocates say the agency's decision to greenlight the final rules without the originally proposed clauses represents a significant departure from the original proposal and provides corporations with too much leeway.Former SEC Commissioner Allison Herren Lee argued that the final rule undermines the original proposal's effectiveness in providing investors with vital information on climate risks. Lee was an SEC commissioner from July 2019 until July 2022 during which she spent months as acting SEC Chair. "The new rule, unfortunately, does little to prevent companies from making vague, untested and, most significantly, unsubstantiated statements about their carbon footprints," Lee — now with the whistleblower firm Kohn, Kohn & Colapinto — wrote following the finalization of the rule. "Under the new rule companies will not have to disclose the bulk (or in some cases any) of their GHG emissions."

10 states file legal challenge to SEC climate disclosure rule West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey announced a coalition of 10 states will file a legal challenge to new regulations requiring public companies to disclose their climate-related risks and direct greenhouse gas emissions. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) voted 3-2 Wednesday to approve the climate disclosure rule, which will go into effect in 2026. Intense blowback from the business community delayed the passage of the final rule as the agency combed through thousands of comment letters following the initial proposal in 2022. West Virginia and Georgia co-led the petition for review filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th circuit, Morrisey said, joined by Alabama, Alaska, Indiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Wyoming and Virginia. A copy of the petition later provided to The Hill also lists New Hampshire as a plaintiff. “This is a backdoor move to undermine the energy industry,” Morrisey said. He later added, “This is yet another attempt to advance an agenda without statutory authority, and I for one am not gonna let that happen.” The new rules sparked immediate backlash from business groups and Republicans who have long opposed the change. Although the final rule rolled back a provision that would have required companies to report emissions that stem from their supply chains and products, it could face additional legal challenges. In addition to challenging the SEC’s statutory authority to advance the rule, Morrisey said “this rule also appears to have some serious First Amendment problems.” “We have concerns with compelled speech, and this is setting up a framework where the federal agency is forcing companies to put forth initiatives and disclose information that it might not otherwise want to do,” Morrisey said. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness Executive Vice President Tom Quaadman said the business lobbying giant is “carefully reviewing the details of the rule and its legal underpinnings to understand its full impact.” “While it appears that some of the most onerous provisions of the initial proposed rule have been removed, this remains a novel and complicated rule that will likely have significant impact on businesses and their investors. The Chamber will continue to use all the tools at our disposal, including litigation if necessary, to prevent government overreach and preserve a competitive capital market system,” Quaadman said. Senate Banking Committee ranking member Tim Scott (R-S.C.) also vowed to fight the rule under the Congressional Review Act, a law that allows Congress to review and potentially overrule new federal regulations through a joint resolution. “Ignoring the concerns of Americans, small business owners, and stakeholders from across the country, [SEC] Chair [Gary] Gensler pressed forward with a final rule that falls outside his agency’s authority and does far more to advance the Biden administration’s far-Left climate agenda than uphold the SEC’s mandate to protect investors, maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, and facilitate capital formation,” Scott said. House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) blasted the “immense consequences” of “such disastrous regulations” and announced a field hearing scheduled for March 18. “When fewer companies are entering our public markets than any time in recent memory, we should be making it easier for firms to go and stay public. Instead, Chair Gensler is overstepping his statutory authority, piling on massive new compliance costs that will be destructive to workers, investors, and job creators alike. Our capital markets are currently the envy of the world,” McHenry said. Gensler cast the updated rule as one that “benefits investors and issuers alike” and would standardize reporting that many companies are already doing. Of the 1,000 biggest stocks on the Russell Index, around 90 percent already publish some form of climate disclosure and nearly 60 percent disclose information about their emissions. But opponents say it would discourage private companies from going public, require significant financial investment in disclosure controls, increase costs for consumers and undermine American business competitiveness.

Corporations Are Losing The ESG Battle, Forcing Them To Hide Advocacy - Wall Street titans appear to be having an increasingly hard time reconciling the conflicting goals of progressive activism and shareholder returns. Until recently, many banks, asset managers, and insurers portrayed these goals as complementary, asserting that climate risk is financial risk and that the competence of management can be assessed by its commitment to social justice goals. Today, however, those narratives are rarely heard. BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and State Street recently exited from Climate Action 100+, a coalition of the world’s largest fund managers that pledges to “ensure the world’s largest corporate greenhouse gas emitters take necessary action on climate change.” On the heels of that exit, 16 conservative state attorneys general have demanded answers from BlackRock’s directors regarding the firm’s continued membership in other similar groups, which they assert could be a conflict of interest with its fiduciary responsibility to investors. “We applaud BlackRock’s reevaluation of its status [with Climate Action 100+],” the attorneys general wrote in a Feb. 27 letter to BlackRock’s directors, “but we also note that BlackRock remains a member of other groups such the Net Zero Asset Managers initiative (NZAM), the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (UNPRI), and Ceres.” Republican state officials praised a recent trend of banks’, fund managers’, and insurance companies’ departures from climate clubs. However, they question whether the Wall Street firms are actually changing direction or simply changing optics. “I’m afraid nothing has really changed other than the public’s stance,” Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen told The Epoch Times

PayPal adds support for iPhone payments, BNY Mellon's Regelman exits -PayPal has made Tap to Pay on iPhone available for all Venmo business clients and PayPal Zettle users in the U.S.Tap to Pay, or softPOS, enables businesses to receive payments on iPhones without additional hardware, such as a dongle. The technology has become popular among payment companies and banks such as TD Bank andJPMorgan Chase as a way to enable merchants, particularly sole proprietors and other small businesses, to accept payments at a lower cost. Adding Tap to Pay gives PayPal another payment alternative for its small-business clients. in 2018, PayPal acquired Zettle, then known as iZettle, to compete with Block, then known as Square, in Europe. PayPal in 2022 introduced Zettle's point of sale technology to the U.S. "As consumers increasingly turn to non-cash options to pay, small businesses are looking for affordable and flexible ways to offer their customers more payment choice without being tied down to a fixed location," said Nitin Prabhu, vice president of small businesses and financial services at PayPal, in a release. Roman Regelman will leave his role as head of securities services and digital at BNY Mellon next month to pursue other career opportunities, he wrote in a Wednesday LinkedIn post. During his nearly-six-year tenure at the global bank, Regelman oversaw the company's dive into digital asset products, including tokenization and crypto custody, along with efforts to digitize all aspects of operations. Regelman helped accelerate innovation and performance in asset servicing and led digital asset strategic partnerships and investments to meet "the changing needs of our clients," said CEO Robin Vince in an internal memo seen by American Banker.

BankThink: Decoding the CFPB's puzzling position on earned wage access programs | American Banker --In November 2023, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau took the unusual step of filing a comment letter for a state-level rulemaking in California regarding earned wage access, in which the CFPB urged California regulators to move forward with proposed regulations that would effectively deem all EWA services to constitute the offering of "credit." It was unusual because federal regulators rarely take steps to attempt to publicly influence a state-level rulemaking.The CFPB's action raises the question: Why did the CFPB choose to weigh in on this rulemaking when all 50 states pass their own laws and make regulatory decisions on a regular basis without input from federal regulators like the CFPB? Some of these laws and regulatory decisions are consistent with federal law, and some are not. It is interesting to note that the CFPB remained silent when EWA laws were passed in Nevada and Missouri. This was also the case when the attorneys general in Arizona and Montana issued opinions that EWA products are not credit products. While I cannot speak to what factors influenced the CFPB to file a comment, I can say that if you were new to issues related to EWA, and you read the CFPB's letter to California, you might have been led to believe that all EWA providers are acting nefariously, as opposed to giving consumers a pathway to a different method for receiving their own earned, but not yet paid, wages.The CFPB wants the public to forget that their own EWA advisory opinion includes a discussion that goes to the heart of the service — employees have a right to access the money they have earned. The advisory opinion includes a well-reasoned analysis of EWA products, featuring phrases such as "credit has not been extended because the consumer is, in effect, only using the consumer's own money," and "an employee is, in effect, only using the [employee's] own money." I agree with the CFPB's analysis. However, by filing their comment, the CFPB is essentially saying it no longer does. The CFPB's letter to California thus is counter to its own public guidance on EWA products and asks the California regulators, and other readers to simply believe the CFPB's public interpretation that credit laws may or may not apply.The Innovative Payments Association has been working on issues related to EWA for more than four years, and I have had the great fortune to have had the opportunity to work with many EWA providers, testify before Congress and write several opinion pieces outlining the benefits of EWA.At times, people feel a sense of uncertainty when new realities challenge old paradigms and beliefs, and such is the case with EWA. Some may feel uncomfortable because EWA is changing how employees interact with their employers. EWA is growing in popularity and is attractive to consumers because it is exactly what it proclaims to be. And the CFPB has acknowledged this fact in writing.EWA providers are giving wage earners something they rarely have: power. Power to control when they get paid and gain access to their earned wages when they need it. To this point, the CFPB wrote, "EWA products seek to address the lag between consumers' hours worked and receipt of their paychecks by facilitating advance access to earned but as yet unpaid wages." Critics argue EWA is a credit product. The answer again lies with the CFPB's own words. If the CFPB truly believes that employees have a right to the money they have earned, and that right is protected by state and federal law, it cannot be diminished, even if their employer goes out of business or files for bankruptcy.One of the basic tenets in the law is the concept of ownership. A true owner has rights to an asset that exceeds the rights of all others. For example, if your car is stolen, the owner's rights are not diminished, even if they don't have possession of the vehicle.Accordingly, it is impossible for me to loan something to you that is already yours. Credit is borrowing something you do not have on the promise you will pay it back. Wages cannot become credit simply because an EWA provider helps an employee access those funds ahead of an arbitrary date.

Biden nods to 'junk fee' rule, housing in State of the Union — President Joe Biden gave a fiery State of the Union address amid energetic chants of "four more years" from Democrats and loud cries of protest from Republicans, hitting on both so-called "junk fees" and housing initiatives during the course of his speech. The State of the Union, seen by many as Biden's launch of his 2024 campaign, touted Biden's plans on the economy. Central to those plans are pocketbook issues such as mortgages, rent payments and the financial-institution fees that Biden says are hurting middle-class families. Biden gave a shoutout to a rule finalized earlier this week by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which cuts credit card late fees to $8 from $32. The White House has promoted the rule from the beginning, first proposing it shortly before last year's State of the Union. The bureau's director, Rohit Chopra, has also appeared alongside Biden at the White House to promote the rule. "I'm also getting rid of junk fees, those hidden fees added at the end of your bills without your knowledge," Biden said during his speech Thursday evening. "My administration just announced we're cutting credit card late fees from $32 to just $8. The banks and credit card companies don't like it. Why? I'm saving American families $20 billion a year with all of the junk fees I'm eliminating." Banking trade groups have pushed back hard against the new cap on fees. Just hours before the State of the Union, the American Bankers Association, Consumer Bankers Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and a number of Texas groups filed a lawsuit against the bureau over the new rule and are seeking an injunction to bar the CFPB from implementing it. "The CFPB's action to cap credit card late fees below banks' actual costs exceeds its authority and would result in more late payments, increased debt, reduced credit access and higher [annual percentage rates] for all consumers — including the vast majority of cardholders who pay on time each month," said ABA President and CEO Rob Nichols in a statement. "Once again, we have reluctantly been forced to sue a federal regulator because the CFPB has ignored industry and other stakeholder comments demonstrating that this rule exceeds the bureau's statutory authority and will hurt rather than help consumers. This rule is about politics not policy, and we look forward to the court's review."The banking trade associations had a similar reaction to Biden's comments in the State of the Union."The administration's ongoing efforts to unfairly demonize the financial services industry is misguided and out of touch with the millions of Americans who value and appreciate the security, convenience and innovation provided by banks of all sizes and our modern payments system," Nichols said. "Rather than launch a tsunami of ill-conceived regulatory changes and play politics with serious policy issues in tonight's State of the Union, we urge the administration to work with the industry on a sensible regulatory framework that actually encourages the lending, investment and financial inclusion we all want to see," he said. "By pursuing that kind of collaboration, we can accomplish our shared goal of growing the economy and giving every American the chance to succeed." Rebeca Romero Rainey, president and CEO of the Independent Community Bankers of America, also objected to the term "junk fees." The term, which is used by the Biden administration and consumer advocates, has long been a point of contention between them and the banking industry. "Such intentionally reckless language misrepresents the overdraft protection services that banks offer their customers and how community banks meet the credit card needs of their customers," Romero Rainey said.

Chamber, banking groups blast new Biden ‘junk fee’ fight -- The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and several banking groups blasted President Biden’s latest moves in the fight against “junk fees.” Biden announced Tuesday a new “strike force” to coordinate cross-agency efforts to crack down on price-gouging. The announcement comes ahead of the State of the Union address on Thursday, in which Biden is expected to tout his commitment to lowering prices for American consumers as his reelection campaign heats up.The Chamber criticized the strike force, which will be co-chaired by the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), as a return to government price control.“This effort by the Biden Administration to use regulatory agencies to micromanage how private businesses set prices will have the same result: shortages, fewer choices for consumers, a weaker economy, and less jobs,” said Neil Bradley, executive vice president, chief policy officer and head of strategic advocacy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.“To make matters worse, the strike force will be led by two agencies that, for the past three years, have been openly hostile to market efficiencies — blatantly ignoring lower prices and better outcomes for consumers,” Bradley said.Bradley also said the Chamber will be filing a lawsuit to block a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) rule finalized Tuesday that will cap credit card late fees at $8 for large issuers.Consumer Bankers Association (CBA) President and CEO Lindsey Johnson said the CFPB has “skipped important legal requirements in its haste to finalize the rulemaking,” and argued while the rule would benefit a small subset of late payers, all cardholders would shoulder the burden in the form of higher credit card interest rates and lower credit availability.Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association, called the rule “flawed” and accused the agency of “clearly choosing to put politics over sound public policy” ahead of the State of the Union.“The Bureau’s misguided decision to cap credit card late fees at a level far below banks’ actual costs will force card issuers to reduce credit lines, tighten standards for new accounts and raise APRs for all consumers — even those who pay on time,” Nichols said.But CFPB Director Rohit Chopra accused credit card companies of “exploiting a loophole to harvest billions of dollars in junk fees from American consumers.” The CFPB has estimated capping late fees that large credit card issuers can charge would save Americans $10 billion per year, with an average savings of $220 per person.

CFPB $8 credit card late fee rule comes amid White House fee crackdown -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has finalized its proposal to cut credit card late fees to $8 from $32, part of a wide-ranging effort by the administration to crack down on unfair fees ahead of President Biden's State of the Union address later this week. On Tuesday, the CFPB will release a final rule that is expected to save consumers $10 billion a year in credit card late fees. "Late fees have gotten out of control," said CFPB Director Rohit Chopra on the White House call Monday with reporters to announce the final rule to reduce credit card late fees. Chopra cited a loophole created by the Federal Reserve Board that has allowed credit card companies to raise late fees every year since 2010 in line with inflation. Credit card issuers over time have raised late fees to $32 on average for the first missed payment to $41 for subsequent late payments. "We're going to end this automatic inflation adjustment and lower the provision to $8, a figure that reflects the average collection costs that large issuers incur as a result of late payments," Chopra said. Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council and a former vice chair of the Federal Reserve, kicked off the call with reporters by announcing President Biden's creation of a new strike force under an executive order to root out unfair and illegal price hikes across many industries. The goal is to bring down costs on everything from hearing aids to asthma inhalers to air travel. Biden is expected to announce in the State of the Union the efforts across several agencies including the CFPB, Federal Trade Commission and Department of Agriculture to address "anti-competitive, unfair, deceptive or fraudulent business practices." "President Biden is fed up with corporate practices that unfairly raise costs for consumers and he's taking action," said Brainard, who also chairs the White House Competition Council. "Some corporations are tacking on extra fees, hiding costs and sometimes even breaking the law. The President is committed to lowering costs for hard working Americans who pay too much for groceries, banking, airfares, and basic utilities."

U.S. Chamber says it will sue the CFPB over credit card late fee rule -After the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau issued a final rule to reduce credit card late fees to $8, from $32, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said it will sue the bureau "imminently," bank trade groups denounced the rule and Sen. Tim Scott threatened to fight the rule's implementation. The pushback on Tuesday was palpable and also expected given the credit card industry collects more than $14 billion in late fee revenue a year and CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said the rule would slash late fees by $10 billion a year. The banking industry had long questioned how the CFPB came up with the $8 late fee amount, which the CFPB said is based on data from banks showing the cost of collections. Neil Bradley, executive vice president and chief policy officer at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said the bureau exceeded its authority by setting a price cap on late fees for the largest credit card issuers."The Chamber will be filing a lawsuit against the agency imminently to prevent this misguided and harmful rule from going into effect," said Bradley, who is also the Chamber's head of strategic advocacy, in a statement.The Chamber is likely to sue the CFPB by arguing that the rule violates a provision of the Administrative Procedure Act that allows courts to invalidate agency rules that are considered to be "arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion or otherwise not in accordance with law."Many industry experts said Chopra was putting politics ahead of public policy because the CFPB announced the final rule at the White House on Monday ahead of President Biden's State of the Union address, which will focus on price gouging by corporations including cutting unfair fees to help American families. "This final rule makes clear that the CFPB's mind was made up from the beginning — the very definition of an arbitrary agency action," said Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association. "This rule should not be allowed to go into effect." In a change from its proposal, the final rule would apply only to the largest 30 to 35 credit card issuers that account for more than 95% of total outstanding balances. Smaller banks and credit unions will not be affected. Chopra is ending an automatic annual inflation adjustment that the Federal Reserve Board created in 2010, lowering an immunity provision for late payments on credit cards to $8. Chopra claims credit card issuers have used the inflation adjustment to hike late fees dramatically in the last decade. Large issuers have set late fees at $32 for a first missed payment and $41 for subsequent late payments, which Chopra claims is more than five times the cost to collect.Sen. Tim Scott, R-South Carolina, and the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee,posted a statement on X, formerly known as Twitter, threatening to use the Congressional Review Act to overturn the rule. "I will be using the Congressional Review Act process to fight the implementation of this rule," Scott said in a statement. "Lawful and contractually agreed upon payment incentives promote financial discipline and responsibility. Ultimately, these common sense practices protect consumers' access to credit and enable a wider range of services." But some experts said the CFPB, by releasing the rule early this year, may beat the window of opportunity that Congress has to use the little-known Congressional Review Act to overturn rules issued by federal agencies. A joint resolution to invoke the CRA must be introduced in a specific 60-day time frame and calculating the continuous legislative sessions can involve some tricky math, experts said.

Chamber, bank trade groups sue the CFPB over credit card late fee rule -- The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and five trade groups on Thursday sued the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to halt the implementation of a rule that would reduce credit card late fees to $8. The lawsuit was filed two days after the CFPB issued a final rule cutting credit card late fees to $8from $32, as part of a wide-ranging effort by the Biden administration to crack down on unfair or hidden fees. The lawsuit claims the CFPB did not explain how it reached the conclusion that an $8 late fee was appropriate, an omission the groups claim is "arbitrary and capricious," in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act. The lawsuit was expected given that CFPB Director Rohit Chopra, who was also named in the suit, has said the rule would slash credit card late fees by $10 billion a year. The credit card industry collects more than $14 billion a year in late fee revenue.The suit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas by the Chamber of Commerce, three trade groups in Texas, the American Bankers Association and the Consumer Bankers Association."We have reluctantly been forced to sue a federal regulator because the CFPB has ignored industry and other stakeholder comments demonstrating that this rule exceeds the bureau's statutory authority and will hurt rather than help consumers," said Rob Nichols, president and CEO of the American Bankers Association. "This rule is about politics, not policy, and we look forward to the court's review." Nichols said the $8 late fee constituted a cap, and was set below banks' actual costs. Bank trade groups claim the rule would lead to more late payments, increased debt, reduced credit access and higher annual percentage rates for all consumers.The lawsuit states that the CFPB is preventing credit card issuers from collecting "reasonable and proportional" late fees in violation of the Credit Card Accountability Responsibility and Disclosure Act of 2009, known as the CARD Act. In addition, the suit alleges the CFPB is unconstitutional because the bureau relies on funding from the Federal Reserve, in violation of the appropriations clause — a challenge to the bureau's existence that the Supreme Court is expected to decide by June. The late fee rule applies only to the largest 30 to 35 credit card issuers that account for more than 95% of total outstanding balances. Smaller banks and credit unions will not be affected. The lawsuit states that the CFPB relied on non-public data collected by the Federal Reserve Boards Capital Assessments and Stress Testing survey, known as Y-14M data, which is collected from financial holding companies with at least $100 billion in assets. The CFPB, which is a bureau of the Federal Reserve System, relied on the Y-14 data to determine the costs of collection by large credit card issuers. The U.S. Chamber referred to the information as "secret data collected from only the largest banks for a different purpose and by a different agency."

Biden calls for home buyer tax credits, pilot cutting title on some refis -- In advance of the State of the Union speech, the White House announced tax credits proposals for certain homebuyers and a title acceptance pilot program that would eliminate the requirement for a lender title policy on certain conforming refinancings. A White House fact sheet in advance of tonight's speech listed several homeownership and rental initiatives that Pres. Biden is looking to push. The president is proposing a mortgage relief credit that, if Congress passes, would provide middle-class first-time home buyers with an annual tax credit of $5,000 a year for two years. It claims that would be the equivalent of reducing the interest rate by more than 1.5 percentage points and will help more than 3.5 million middle-class families purchase their first home. Meanwhile, to push more current homeowners to list their property for sale, the White House is calling on Congress to pass a one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 to middle-class families who sell their starter home to another owner-occupant. It defined that market as homes below the area median home price in the county. This proposal is estimated to help nearly 3 million families, the White House said. The White House also called for Congress to provide up to $25,000 in down payment assistance "to first-generation homebuyers whose families haven't benefited from the generational wealth building associated with homeownership," the fact sheet said. Another initiative focused on cutting the costs of homeownership will come from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, who will undertake rulemaking and provide guidance "to address anticompetitive closing costs imposed by lenders on homebuyers and homeowners," the fact sheet added. The Biden Administration also wants to build and/or preserve 2 million homes. It proposes expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit program to build or preserve 1.2 million more affordable rental units; and a new Neighborhood Homes Tax Credit, which if enacted, would lead to the construction or preservation of over 400,000 starter houses. Another proposal would ask Federal Home Loan Banks to double their annual contribution to the Affordable Housing Program to 20% of the prior year's net income from the current 10%, which will raise an additional $3.79 billion for affordable housing over the next decade. A new $20 billion competitive grant fund will be included in the president's budget proposal to support communities across the country to build more housing as well as lower rents and home purchase costs. "Together with our partners across the federal government, we are committed to boosting our housing supply to increase affordability and removing barriers to advance homeownership," Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge, said in a separate press release. The National Housing Conference called this the most consequential State of the Union speech when it comes to housing in over 50 years. "President Biden's call for Congress to tackle the urgent matter of housing affordability through tax credits, down payment assistance initiatives, and other measures is warranted and represents a crucial step in easing the burden of high rents and home prices," David Dworkin, president and CEO, said in a statement. "We have a deficit of 3-5 million housing units in this country. We dug this hole over 15 years. We are going to have to get out of it the same way. One shovel at a time." In addition to the pilot program that would eliminate the requirement for lender title insurance on certain refiances, the government wants to hold a roundtable consisting of stakeholders, including consumer advocates and academics, to discuss the title insurance industry and analyze potential reforms.

BankThink: Biden's regulatory agenda threatens the health of American banks | American Banker -This week, President Biden will deliver his State of the Union address, in which he is expected to tout his administration's financial regulatory agenda that mischaracterizes and threatens to harm our American banking system — the strongest, safest and most competitive in the world.For generations, banks have driven the U.S. economy forward, and helped millions of Americans achieve their dreams of paying for college, buying their first home and starting their small business. Comprised of nearly 5,000 institutions that vary in size, scale and offerings, the U.S. banking system is truly an embodiment of capitalism and the free enterprise virtues we hold dear. And America's leading retail banks have millions of team members who live and engage in the communities across the U.S. that they serve. Following the Great Recession, regulators spent more than a decade instituting vast reforms that have ensured our nation's banking system is among the most well regulated in the world, with banks already spending billions annually to comply with myriad rules intended to protect consumers and bolster the resiliency of the system, including significant annual stress tests and many other requirements to ensure banks remain well positioned to weather even the most severe economic scenarios.While banks agree with the need for appropriate levels of regulation and capital requirements, too much of either weakens the very fundamentals that separate our system from any other in the world. That's why it is deeply concerning to take stock of the current regulatory agenda from the Biden administration, which over the past year has introduced hundreds of proposals from multiple agencies that would impact nearly every line of business at banks today. Each of these, on their own, would have significant impacts on banks' ability to lend and could reduce Americans' access to credit and increase costs for families and small businesses. Collectively, these proposals would also likely force some banks out of the market, push lending to less regulated venues, weaken America's competitiveness and slow our economy. Consider, for example, the many active proposals to change how credit cards work. Notably, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau finalized a rule that will arbitrarily and dramatically lower credit card late fees. But the CFPB has openly conceded that under the rule, the majority of cardholders — almost 75% — will likely see their credit card interest rates increase. Many borrowers will also see their credit availability decrease. These outcomes will be particularly impactful for the nearly 50% of subprime card consumers who work hard and budget to successfully pay their bills on time — and will now have a more difficult time obtaining credit, managing their debt and improving their financial well-being. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has unveiled a new proposed rule to lower debit card interchange fees. If enacted in its current form, banks would be forced to offset lost revenue currently used to provide consumers access to free checking accounts. This is not theoretical, as multiple past studies from the Federal Reserve Board have found none of the supposed debit card interchange "savings" has gone to consumers, and instead is kept by retailers. In fact, the Federal Reserve Board's research shows debit card interchange price regulation led to a contraction of free and low-cost checking account products, higher balance requirements for consumers to avoid fees and an increase in other service fees. Further academic research released last year found these effects would be felt most significantly by lower-income and low-credit-score households, with consumers paying up to $2 billion more if this proposal were finalized. This rule — coupled with the recent Basel III endgame proposal to require banks hold 20% more capital — will only further constrain banks' ability to lend to consumers.We've seen this with a recent one-size-fits-all proposal to revamp banks' already highly tailored overdraft products, as well as a proposal to ban nonsufficient funds fees, which the CFPB recognizes that the vast majority of America's leading banks do not currently charge. The overdraft proposal is especially problematic as it would result in banks not being able to provide this essential short-term liquidity tool to consumers, which many have come to value. A recent survey even shows that the vast majority of consumers who use overdraft would rather pay a fee than have their transaction declined.However well-intentioned, regulation comes at a cost. Now is the time for policymakers in Washington to step back and analyze the true cumulative impact and costs of these regulations — to the banks, their consumers and small businesses and to the competitiveness of the American financial system — and ensure regulations are guided by sound policy, not partisan politics. Doing so will help to prevent a deep and unmendable crack that could form in the foundation of our financial system, to the detriment of consumers and small businesses alike.

Federal Home Loan banks' profits skyrocket from 2023 liquidity crisis -The March 2023 banking crisis will be remembered for three major bank failures, the demise of a fourth bank tied to cryptocurrency and more than $35.5 billion in losses to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Yet one entity that came under scrutiny for lending billions to failed banks last year also reaped billions in profits from the regional bank crisis, a dichotomy that has critics up in arms. The Federal Home Loan Bank System earned $6.7 billion at year-end, a 111% jump from a year earlier. The system also paid out a record $3.4 billion in dividends to its members, more than double the $1.4 billion paid in 2022.Critics are pointing to the system's combined operating highlights, released last month, to raise fresh concerns about whether the Home Loan banks are providing a public benefit that is commensurate with the profits paid to members. "Numbers don't lie," said Sharon Cornelissen, director of housing for the Consumer Federation of America, who chairs the nonprofit Coalition for FHLB Reform, a group of academics, housing advocates, regulators and Home Loan bank alumni seeking to reform the 91-year-old system. "The numbers show that the Home Loan banks continue to prioritize the profitability of their members over their mission of promoting affordable housing."Each of the 11 regional Home Loan banks is required by statute to give 10% of earnings to affordable housing, an assessment that comes to $752 million for 2024. The banks expect to contribute roughly $1 billion toward its Affordable Housing Program and voluntary programs in 2024, a spokesman said. The amount paid to affordable housing rises and falls based on the system's profitability."Dividends are reflective not only of the extent to which members rely on the liquidity we provide, which expands and contracts based on member needs; they represent a return on investment that our members pour back into housing finance and other financial services for their local communities," Ryan Donovan, president and CEO of the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks, said in a statement.The collapses of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank and Silvergate Bank called into question the dual role of the Home Loan banks in providing liquidity to their members while also supporting housing. The Federal Housing Finance Agency, the system's regulator, was already conducting a 100-year review of the system when the deposit run on Silicon Valley Bank sparked a liquidity crisis that spread last March across the entire banking system.Many experts are waiting for the FHFA to make its next move toward reforms by releasing an expected rule that would define the system's mission, which has become the subject of much debate. In November, the FHFA released a report with 50 recommendations for reform. FHFA Director Sandra Thompson has said that maintaining the status quo "is not acceptable."Dividends have received renewed focus after the Yale School of Management's Program on Financial Stability released a report in January that recommended redirecting the system's dividends toward housing and away from what its researchers called "subsidized borrowing" for banks. Steven Kelly, an associate director of research at Yale's Program on Financial Stability, said the Home Loan banks' dividend practices should be better aligned with the system's housing goals. The Home Loan banks have a unique structure of both membership and activity-based stock. Members are required to hold nominal amounts of stock but when a bank member taps the system for advances, the loan is used to purchase additional stock, typically 4% to 5% of the loan amount. "The dividends reward process would be an easy prong to refocus on affordable housing," Kelly said. In the past year, the Federal Home Loan Bank of New York raised its dividend to 9.75%, the highest among the 11 banks, followed by Federal Home Loan Bank of Topeka at 9.5%. The Topeka bank garnered attention recently after lending $21 million to Heartland Tri-State Bank, in Elkhart, Kansas, whose former CEO Shan Hanes was indicted for allegedly embezzling funds last year to buy cryptocurrency. Heartland, which failed in July 2023, provides yet another example of troubled banks tapping the system prior to collapsing."Most [Home Loan banks] pay a much higher dividend on activity stock because they want to encourage members to borrow more," said Peter Knight, a former director of government relations for nearly 20 years at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Pittsburgh, who is also a member of the Coalition for FHLB Reform.

Regulators reaffirm commitment to embattled CRA reforms in personal terms — Top federal bank regulators Tuesday reaffirmed their support for recently updated reforms to their agency's regulations implementing the Community Reinvestment Act, providing at times deeply personal cases for the need to reform the rules."There's nothing more important, more impactful for people around the country in dire need of access to credit, investment, and basic banking services than the finalization and implementation of this rule," said Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Martin Gruenberg. "This final rule that we're now in the process of implementing is a careful, balanced and strong adaptation of CRA to the changing nature of the banking business and it is essential that we follow through on its implementation."Accompanying Gruenberg at Tuesday's regulatory roundtable at the 2024 National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference were the heads of the other two main bank regulatory agencies shepherding the CRA rewrite: acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu and Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr. The agency heads articulated throughout the discussion that their agencies' staff made painstaking efforts to strengthen and modernize the CRA while ensuring various obligations under the rules are tailored to ensure banks — especially smaller firms less immediately capable of adapting to the complex regulations — are not unduly burdened. Under the rule banks under $2 billion have no additional data collection responsibilities.Barr noted that this tailoring is a crucial aspect of the final rule, since many of the updates attempt to deal with problems — like accounting for geographically distributed online lending activity — with greater relevance at larger, more complex firms. "The smallest banks, for example, can use the new rule or they can use the old rule and the old rule for some of them might be what they'd like to do," he said. "Deposit data and deposit product rules apply only to the very largest banks over $10 billion. The rule is designed to take into account the diversity of sizes and types of business models and banks in our country."Barr highlighted what he saw as a win-win for banks and communities: the clarity and consistency in the rule that should make CRA compliance more predictable for the banking industry."The metrics that are used for the retail lending test I think will provide both banks and communities with a better sense of what the playing field looks like, what other institutions are doing, and what the community needs," he said. "With respect to community development [the final rule has] an illustrative list of the activities that are eligible and then we have a process that banks and communities can come forward and say: Is this activity also eligible for CRA consideration?"

What former FHFA Director Mark Calabria foresees for housing - Depending on the outcome of the next presidential election and alignment between the heads of key agencies, a exit from government conservatorship for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could be closer than many think.Former Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria said Thursday that if the FHFA and Treasury were to pick up the effort from where he and previous Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin left off during the first Trump administration, it could happen in a couple years or so."From everything that we did, and what I believe needs to be finished, it can be done," Calabria, senior advisor at the Cato Institute and author of a book on the pandemic-era FHFA, said Thursday, expanding on remarks he made at a Commercial Real Estate Finance Council event this week.He acknowledged a lot of stars would have to be aligned and logistical issues would have to be addressed including the asset-liability imbalances the government-sponsored enterprises have and the Treasury's senior preferred shares, but said there are mechanisms for handling them."You have a huge overhang on the liability side of the balance sheet, and that needs to be crammed down, so you either cram it down explicitly, or you essentially swap everything to common stock and let the market cram it down," he said.Calabria favors the second approach."Ultimately, I think it's better to let the equity markets determine what that value is," he said.But even if there's a second run of the Trump administration, Calabria said it's not a given that the exit will be a top priority given that tax reform would likely take precedence for the Treasury.Conservatorship may be even far less likely if President Biden stays in office, but Calabria said he wouldn't rule it out even in that circumstance.That said, if Janet Yellen remains Treasury secretary, it's unlikely based on her testimony and actions, he speculated.It would be more likely if Mnuchin were to return to the post, Calabria said. Mnuchin told CNBC on Thursday that he would consider serving again if Trump is elected.For his part, Calabria said he doesn't think he necessarily needs to be involved for an exit to happen."I have a high degree of comfort that there are a number of people that can come in, in a different administration, and complete the work I started. So I don't necessarily feel like 'only Mark can do it.' I have a sense that the groundwork has been laid," he said.However, Calabria added that he would consider serving if called upon."If I was asked to serve, it would be hard for me to say no to a president that wants me to have some sort of positive impact," he said.But he stressed that his interest in such a position has changed over time."I would certainly admit, to a degree, that while at the White House in 2018, I threw my hat in the ring for the FHFA job and thought it was something I could do. I'm not out there throwing my hat in the ring and saying, 'me, me, me,' because I don't think it needs to be me," Calabria said.

The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4 -- Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Closed in Q4 -- Excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined. Note: Very few homeowners have negative equity now - unlike during the housing bubble.Refinance activity declined significantly in early 2022 as mortgage rates increased, and I was expecting MEW to also decline as fewer homeowners used cash-out refinancing. However, in mid-2022, homeowners switched to using home equity loans (2nd loans) to extract equity from their homes.The Fed noted this increase in demand for HELOCs in the October 2022 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices: “banks reported tighter standards and stronger demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).” However, in the last five surveys, in January 2023, April 2023, July 2023, October 2023, and January 2024, the Fed noted that “banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).” Since demand weakened last year for HELOCs, and refinancing activity is off sharply, MEW turned negative in Q1 and was only slightly positive in Q2 through Q4 2023, Mortgage Equity Withdrawal is an aggregate number and is a combination of homeowners extracting equity - hence the name "MEW" - and normal principal payments and debt cancellation (modifications, short sales, and foreclosures).There are few debt cancellations now, so little MEW suggests that normal principal payments offset equity borrowing in Q4.Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.In Q4 2024, mortgage debt increased $90 billion, down from $119 billion in Q3, and down from the cycle peak of $467 billion in Q2 2021. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW). The second graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Note this graph was impacted by the sharp decline in Q2 2020 GDP.Mortgage debt is up $2.36 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 46.78% - down from Q3 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust. This means most homeowners have large equity cushions in their home.The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q4 - and is below the peak in Q3 2022 - but is well above the average of the last 30 years.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: "First-Time Homebuyers Make Up Record 47% of GSE Purchase Loans" - Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: First-Time Homebuyers Make Up Record 47% of GSE Purchase Loans, 39% of All 2023 GSE Securitizations in 2023

• Though originations hit a 30-year low in 2023, ICE eMBS data shows first-time homebuyers (FTHB) made up the highest share of agency purchase security issuance in at least 10 years
• In 2023’s 80%+ purchase-driven market, FTHBs account for an exceptionally high share (44%) of overall agency securities issuance, raising the specter of performance risk for MBS investors
• The impact is most pronounced among GSE securities, in which FTHB purchase loans account for 39% of all 2023 issuance, a 12 pp higher share than any other vintage in the past decade
• ICE data shows FTHBs have higher average front-end debt-to-income (DTI) ratios, but back-end DTIs similar to repeat buyers, spending more on housing but less on other forms of debt
• While purchase lending will continue to dominate 2024 originations, a 19% month-over-month jump in refi activity on improved rates highlighted the potential for a rebound in refinance lending if rates move lower
• With the ICE US Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Index showing January rates averaging 6.6%, a 78% jump led rate/term refis to make up 24% of all refinance activity, a nearly two year high
• As noted last month, industry rate predictions would have millions of recent borrowers in the money for a refi by the end of 2024, yet servicers’ retention of such borrowers hit a 17-year low in Q4 2023
• According to ICE Market Trends data, the number of days from rate lock to close matched a 4.5 year low in January, shortening secondary market hedging times

Here is a graph of the number of loans for purchase and refinance since 1995 (includes a forecast for 2024). In 2023, total mortgage originations were the lowest on record (last 30 years), and originations were dominated by purchase activity,

• • 2023 ended on a weak note, with only 960K mortgages originated in Q4, down 13% from Q4 2022 and only the second quarter since 1995 (along with Q1 2023) with fewer than 1M first lien originations
• • That brought the total for 2023 to 4.3M, the lowest since ICE began tracking the metric 30 years ago
• • The market is still expected to be purchase dominant, especially early in the year, with roughly three quarters of all lending expected to come from purchase transactions
• • As discussed in last month’s Mortgage Monitor, refinance activity is expected to grow this year, if and when rates dip into the low 6% range, especially from borrowers who took out mortgages over the past 12 months

A large share of GSE purchase loans in 2023 were for first-time homebuyers (FTHBs).

• • First time homebuyers made up 55% of agency purchase mortgages in 2023 according to ICE eMBS data, the highest such share in the 10 years ICE has been tracking the metric
• • Likewise, first-time homebuyers (FTHBs) accounted for a record 47% of GSE purchase loans in 2023, a number that’s been trending gradually higher throughout the past decade
• • Counter to that trend, the FTHB share of GNMA purchase loan issuance has pulled back in recent years as first-time buyers have relied more heavily on GSE mortgages
• • With purchase loans in general accounting for more than 80% of all 2023 lending, the high concentration of FTHB among such purchase loans is amplified

The local data I track is indicating that Florida and Texas inventory is close to normal, whereas inventory is very low in most of the country. Here is a graph on delinquencies from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in January and are below the pre-pandemic levels.

• • The national delinquency rate dropped to 3.38% in January, the lowest level since October and flat from the previous year
• • Delinquencies fell across the board, as inflows and rolls to later stages dropped below November levels, while cures from early- and late-stage delinquency continued to improve
• • Serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) were down 109K (-19%) year over year, with the population now at 470K
• • The number of borrowers 30-days late fell -94K (-8.6%) below November levels

There is much more in the mortgage monitor.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -- Mortgage applications increased 9.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 1, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 12 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 8 percent from the previous week and was 2 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 11 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 13 percent compared with the previous week and was 8 percent lower than the same week one year ago. "The latest data on inflation was not markedly better nor worse than expected, which was enough to bring mortgage rates down a bit, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate declining slightly last week to 7.02 percent,” “Mortgage applications were up considerably relative to the prior week, which included the President's Day holiday. Of note, purchase volume – particularly for FHA loans – was up strongly, again showing how sensitive the first-time homebuyer segment is to relatively small changes in the direction of rates. Other sources of housing data are showing increases in new listings, which is a real positive for the spring buying season given the lack of for-sale inventory." ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 7.02 percent from 7.04 percent, with points unchanged at 0.67 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 8% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flatlined since then.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 17.8% YoY; New Listings up 11.9% YoY - On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 7.9% YoY, and down 40% compared to January 2019. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 17.8% YoY, and that would still put inventory down about 38% compared to February 2019.Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending February 24, 2024 Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 17.8% above year ago levels. For a 16th straight week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers see more for-sale homes. In fact, the January Realtor.com Housing Trends Report showed that 2024 had the most abundant level of inventory in the most recent four years. Nevertheless, the number of homes on the market is still down nearly 40% compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019.• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 11.9% from one year ago. Newly listed homes bested year ago levels for an 18th week in a row. This may be even better news for home shoppers than the overall growth in active inventory because a jump in new listings means new options–vitally important for shoppers with a specific must-have list.Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 16th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory. Inventory is still historically very low. Although new listings remain well below "typical pre-pandemic levels", new listings are now up YoY for the 18th consecutive week.

CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 5.8% Year-over-year in January -- The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Moves Up Gradually Again in January:
• U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 5.8% year over year in January 2024 compared with January 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.1% compared with December 2023.
• In January, the annual appreciation of detached properties (6%) was 1.1 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (4.9%).
• CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 2.6% in January 2025.
• Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country’s 10 highlighted metro areas in January, at 10.2%. San Diego saw the next-highest gain at 8.5%.
• Among states, Rhode Island ranked first for annual appreciation in January (up by 13.2%), followed by New Jersey (up by 11.6%) and Connecticut (up by 11%). No states recorded year-over-year home price losses....
“U.S. annual home price growth strengthened to 5.8% in January 2024,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “And while the acceleration continues to reflect the residual impact of strong appreciation in early 2023, the annual rate of growth is expected to taper off in coming months.”“Home prices further increased in late 2023 despite high mortgage rates, which surged to the highest level since the beginning of the millennium,” Hepp continued. “But metro areas that have struggled with the impact of higher rates continue to see downward movement on home prices. Generally, pressures from higher mortgage rates tend to occur in markets where the higher cost of homeownership pushes against the affordability ceiling.”

Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.3% below recent peak -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.4% Below Peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 70% above the bubble peak in 2006. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is about 10% above the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices). The composite 20, in real terms, is 1% above the bubble peak.People usually graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms. As an example, if a house price was $300,000 in January 2010, the price would be $426,000 today adjusted for inflation (42% increase). That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices.The third graph shows the price-to-rent ratio, and the fourth graph is the affordability index. The last graph shows the 5-year real return based on the Case-Shiller National Index. ... The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI).In real terms (using CPI), the National index is 2.4% below the recent peak, and the Composite 20 index is 3.2% below the recent peak in 2022. Both indexes declined slightly in December in real terms.In real terms, national house prices are 10.2% above the bubble peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been over 17 years since the previous peak, but real prices are historically high.

Income Needed To Afford A Home In The US Has Soared By 80% Since 2020 --According to Zillow, the income needed to comfortably afford a home in the US has leapt 80% since 2020, far exceeding what the BLS reports has been a 23% increase in median household income over the same period.The real estate website found home buyers today need to make more than $106,000 a year, up $47,000 from 2020, a change driven largely by higher prices and borrowing costs."Housing costs have soared over the past four years as drastic hikes in home prices, mortgage rates and rent growth far outpaced wage gains," said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow.Some math: in 2020, a household earning $59,000 a year could comfortably afford the monthly mortgage on a typical US home, assuming the rule of thumb that a buyer can spend up to 30% of their income on housing and make a 10% down payment. That was less than the US median income of about $66,000 at the time, meaning more than half of American households had the financial means to afford homeownership.Fast forward just four years to today, when it takes roughly $106,500 in income to afford a typical home, and median earnings are about $81,000, putting a home purchase out of reach for most families. In 14 large housing markets, led by a handful of cities in California, Zillow estimated that household income must be $150,000 or more to comfortably afford a typical home. Among the 50 largest metropolitan areas studied, only Pittsburgh still had an income threshold for affordability below the $59,000 national average from 2020.

Homelessness Rises Among US Veterans For 1st Time In 12 Years As Immigration Crisis Escalates -- As national, state, and local governments continue to spend billions of dollars to house, feed, clothe, and provide medical care for millions of illegal immigrants, homelessness among U.S. veterans has risen dramatically for the first time in 12 years.A recent report from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) details a 7.4 percent increase in veteran homelessness between 2022 and 2023 and estimates that more than 35,000 veterans are homeless on any given night. Over the course of a year, according to the report, almost twice as many veterans may experience homelessness. In total, HUD estimates that nearly 13 percent of the homeless adult population are veterans.Kate Monroe, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and CEO of VetComm.us, calls this situation “the ultimate betrayal” by the U.S. government. She is also a California Republican congressional candidate.“What they are trying to do is get as many people into the U.S. as they can,” she told The Epoch Times. “And what we’re saying to our homeless veterans is that we as a country don’t care. It’s no wonder why recruiting is down by 20 percent.”According to a November 2023 report by the Homeland Security Republican Committee, the money spent on illegal migrants could cost Americans up to $451 billion by the end of this year. According to NYC.gov, the official website for New York City, the Big Apple alone doled out $1.45 billion in 2023 to provide food, shelter, and services to tens of thousands of immigrants. Several published reports indicate that Chicago paid $138 million during the past year to house, feed, and care for illegal immigrants.The Federation for American Immigration Reform reports that the state of California, which had the highest number of immigrants in 2023—more than 160,000—spent some $22.8 billion for their care in 2023. California has also become the first state to offer health insurance for all illegal immigrants.“I’ve been down to the border. Buses pull up, and illegal migrants are given food, a cell phone, and a plane ticket,” Ms. Monroe said. “They are taking away housing and resources from veterans, and the American people are the victims.” Her firm is dedicated to helping veterans receive what they are owed from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and is also working to provide them with shelter and empower them to improve their quality of life.

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year -Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through January 2024, except CoreLogic is through December and Apartment List is through February 2024. The CoreLogic measure is up 2.8% YoY in December, up from 2.7% in November, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022. The Zillow measure is up 3.4% YoY in January, mostly unchanged from 3.4% YoY in December, and down from a peak of 16.0% YoY in February 2022. The Apartment List measure is down 1.0% YoY as of February, mostly unchanged from -0.9% in January, and down from a peak of 18.2% YoY November 2021. ... The YoY change in OER and in PCE housing have peaked, but will stay elevated for some time, even though asking rent growth has mostly flattened YoY.There is much more in the article.

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $4.8 Trillion in Q4 The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2023 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $156.2 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2023. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $4.7 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.6 trillion. ... Household debt increased 2.4 percent at an annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2023. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 3.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 2.1 percent.The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. Net worth increased $4.8 trillion in Q4 to an all-time high. As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q4, but is below the peak in 2021. This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q4 2023, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 73.4% - down from 73.9% in Q3, 2023. This is close to the highest percent equity since the 1960s. Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt. The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Mortgage debt increased by $90 billion in Q4. Mortgage debt is up $2.36 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 46.78% - down from Q3 - and down from a peak of 73.3% of GDP during the housing bust. The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q4 - and is below the peak in Q3 2022 - but is well above the average of the last 30 years.

Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in February; Down 13.1% Year-over-year -- From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in February Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in February compared to January. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.8, a decline of 13.1% from a year ago. The index was down 0.1% against the month of January 2024. The seasonal adjustment magnified February’s results. The non-adjusted price in February increased by 1.7% compared to January, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.0% year over year. Though February activity was muted as we started the month, we saw more activity in the lanes at Manheim in the second half of the month and finished the last week of February with some of the strongest weekly gains in wholesale prices for many years,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. “Tax refunds have picked up over the last two weeks, with the average refund now 4% higher than 2023 levels at this time. This has put money into consumers’ pockets, and retail purchase activity is increasing. In turn, dealers are coming to the lanes and buying units at Manheim right at the start of the spring selling season for wholesale markets.” This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions. The Manheim index suggests used car prices were unchanged in February (seasonally adjusted) and were down 13.1% year-over-year (YoY).

Heavy Truck Sales Increased in February --This morning, the BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for February.This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the February 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 530 thousand SAAR in February, up from 506 thousand in January, and up 5.4% from 503 thousand SAAR in February 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Heavy truck sales are solid.

Boeing, Boeing, Gone: US Factory Orders Plunge Most Since COVID Lockdowns In January US factory orders crashed 3.6% MoM in January, notably worse than the 2.9% MoM decline expected and worse still that December's 0.2% MoM rise was revised to a 0.3% decline. This disappointment pulled orders down 2.0% YoY - the worst annual decline since Sept 2020... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. And on a core (ex-transports) basis, orders also disappointed, down 0.8% MoM (vs -0.1% MoM exp), dragging the core orders down 1.6% YoY... January saw the biggest plunge in non-defense aircraft & parts (Boeing) since April 2019 (but we're building lots of boats)... Interestingly January also saw a surge in metalworking machinery manufacturing while ferrous metal foundries orders crashed... But we can thank the good old Military Industrial Complex for orders not being more of a shitshow as Defense spending jumped 24% MoM... Finally, it's that same old issue again... downward revisions!! In the last 21 months, US factory orders have been downwardly revised 16 times...

Trade Deficit at $67.4 Billion in January - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $67.4 billion in January, up $3.3 billion from $64.2 billion in December, revised. January exports were $257.2 billion, $0.3 billion more than December exports. January imports were $324.6 billion, $3.6 billion more than December imports. Both exports imports increased in January. Exports are down 0.4% year-over-year; imports are down 1.2% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports are moving sideways recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China decreased to $23.7 billion from $25.2 billion a year ago.

ISM® Services Index decreases to 52.6% in February -- The ISM® Services index was at 52.6%, down from 53.4% last month. The employment index decreased to 48.0%, from 50.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.6% February 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business®Economic activity in the services sector expanded in February for the 14th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 52.6 percent, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The sector has grown in 44 of the last 45 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022. “In February, the Services PMI® registered 52.6 percent, 0.8 percentage point lower than January’s reading of 53.4 percent. The composite index indicated growth in February for the 14th consecutive month after a reading of 49 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 57.2 percent in February, which is 1.4 percentage points higher than the 55.8 percent recorded in January. The New Orders Index expanded in February for the 14th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 56.1 percent is 1.1 percentage points higher than the January reading of 55 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the second time in three months with a reading of 48 percent, a 2.5-percentage point decrease compared to the 50.5 percent recorded in January. The PMI was slightly below expectations.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 217,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending March 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 215,000 to 217,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 212,500 to 213,000. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 212,250. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

BLS: Job Openings Little Changed at 8.9 million in January -- From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 8.9 million on the last business day of January, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.7 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.4 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for January; the employment report this Friday will be for February. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased slightly in January to 8.86 million from 8.89 million in December. The number of job openings (black) were down 15% year-over-year. Quits were down 13% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Job Openings And Hires Slide As Workers Quitting Their Job Plunge To Pre-Covid Levels -After declines in US job openings accelerated in the last few months of 2023, prompting economists to pat themselves on the back for predicting a soft landing and validating their expectations for Fed rate cuts, only to see the trend reverse dramatically last month when job openings unexpectedly surged back over 9 million, moments ago the BLS came out with the latest, January data (which as a reminder always lags the BLS by a month) and which showed another mixed report which revealed that in January job openings dipped modestly from a downward revised December print, but came right on top of expectations, even as both hiring and quits continued their recent slide. According to the Biden's Labor Department, in January the number of job openings dropped by just 42K in January to 8.863MM from 8.889MM. And speaking of the December print, last month we said that "we are certain will be revised lower next month as has been the case with everything under the Biden admin", and sure enough the number was indeed revised lower from 9026K to 8889K. According to the DOL, in January, job openings increased in nondurable goods manufacturing (+82,000) but decreased in private educational services (-41,000). Government job openings also dropped by 105K to 900K. And speaking of revisions, just like in the payrolls report, here too the BLS appears to be tasked with making a great, if erroneous, first impression then quietly revising it lower, and sure enough, 6 of the past 8 months have seen job openings revised lower! Accurate or not, the modest decline in the number of job openings meant that in January, the number of job openings was 2.739 million more than the number of unemployed workers (which the BLS reported was 6.124 million), up modestly from last month's 2.621 million.

ADP: Private Employment Increased 140,000 in February -- From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 140,000 Jobs in February; Annual Pay was Up 5.1%Private sector employment increased by 140,000 jobs in February and annual pay was up 5.1 percent year-over-year, according to the February ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). ... “Job gains remain solid. Pay gains are trending lower but are still above inflation,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “In short, the labor market is dynamic, but doesn't tip the scales in terms of a Fed rate decision this year.” This was below the consensus forecast of 150,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 188 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in February.

February Employment Report: 275 thousand Jobs, 3.9% Unemployment Rate From the BLS:Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 275,000 in February, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in government, in food services and drinking places, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised down by 43,000, from +333,000 to +290,000, and the change for January was revised down by 124,000, from +353,000 to +229,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 167,000 lower than previously reported.The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 275 thousand in February. Private payrolls increased by 223 thousand, and public payrolls increased 52 thousand.Payrolls for December and January were revised down 167 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In February, the year-over-year change was 2.75 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.5% in February, from 62.5% in January. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 60.1% from 60.2% (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate.The unemployment rate increased to 3.9% in February from 3.7% in January. This was well above consensus expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined.

U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rose to 3.9% -- Job creation topped expectations in February, but the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two months wasn't nearly as hot as initially reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for payroll growth of 198,000. February was a step higher in growth from January, which saw a steep downward revision to 229,000, from the initially reported 353,000. Job growth in December also was revised down to 290,000 from 333,000, bringing the two-month total to 167,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. The jobless level increased as the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 184,000 in those employed. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%, though the "prime age" rate increased to 83.5%, up two-tenths of a percentage point. The survey of establishments shows the total number of jobs. Average hourly earnings, watched closely as an inflation indicator, showed a slightly less than expected increase for the month and a deceleration from a year ago. Wages rose just 0.1% on the month, one-tenth of a percentage point below the estimate, and were up 4.3% from a year ago, down from the 4.5% gain in January and slightly below the 4.4% estimate. Hours worked rebounded from a slip in January, with the average work week up to 34.3 hours, an increase of 0.1 percentage point. The jobs numbers likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates later this year, though the timing and extent remain uncertain. "It's got literally a data point for every view on the spectrum," Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said of the report. Those range from "the economy is plunging into a recession to Goldilocks, everything is fine, nothing to see here. It's certainly mixed," she added. Job creation skewed toward part-time positions. Full-time jobs decreased by 187,000 while part-time employment rose by 51,000, according to the household survey. An alternative jobless measure, sometimes called the "real" unemployment rate, that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose slightly to 7.3%. From a sector standpoint, health care led with 67,000 new jobs. Government again was a big contributor, with 52,000, while restaurants and bars added 42,000 and social assistance increased by 24,000. Other gainers included construction (23,000), transportation and warehousing (20,000) and retail (19,000). The report comes with markets on edge about the state of growth in the broader economy and the impact that might have on monetary policy. Futures trading moved slightly after the report, with traders now pricing in the greater certainty of an initial Fed interest rate cut in June. "There's no new thing under the sun between this report and last month's report. It doesn't really give us a whole lot of information, other than we can qualitatively say, we're still growing jobs at a good pace and wages are still a little bit higher than we would like," North added that the report probably "doesn't change the narrative" for the Fed, though he thinks the first cut may not happen until July. In recent days, Fed officials have sent mixed signals, indicating that inflation is cooling but not by enough to warrant the first interest rate cuts since the early days of the Covid pandemic crisis. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking this week on Capitol Hill, described the labor market as "relatively tight" but moving into better balance from the days when job openings outnumbered available workers by a 2-to-1 margin. Along with that, he said inflation "has eased notably" though still not showing enough progress back to the Fed's 2% target. But on Thursday he told the Senate Banking Committee that the state of the economy has the Fed "not far" from when it could start easing up on monetary policy. "We've got a data-dependent fed, which means we're all at the mercy of the data," "Big moves outside the range of consensus on labor market data, on inflation data, can move the needle. But in-line or mixed numbers, then we all just jump to the next report." Job creation has stayed strong despite a spate of high-profile layoffs, particularly in the tech industry. Most recently, companies such as Cisco, Microsoft and SAP have announced substantial reductions in their workforces. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said this was the worst February for layoff announcements since 2009, in the late days of the global financial crisis. However, workers appear to still be able to find employment. Job openings were virtually unchanged in January at nearly 9 million and still outnumbered the unemployed by 1.4 to 1. Weekly jobless claims have moved little, at 217,000 in the most recent week of filings, though continuing claims did just pass 1.9 million, and the four-week moving average for that metric hit its highest level since December 2021. Amid the conflicting signals, markets have pared back expectations for Fed rate cuts. Futures market traders are pricing in the first reduction coming in June, versus the expectation of March at the beginning of the year, and now figure on four total cuts this year against six or seven previously, according to CME Group data.

Employment Trends in Manufacturing; Construction; Oil & Gas; Professional & Business Services; Information; Healthcare; Retail; Leisure & Hospitality; Finance; Transportation… | Wolf StreetEmployers added 275,000 employees to their payrolls in January. Over the past three months, they added 794,000 employees or on average 265,000 per month, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. These increases are at the upper edge of the increases before the pandemic. But they’re not spread equally across the economy. Some sectors have surged to new highs, such as construction. Others are plateauing at very high levels, such as Manufacturing and Professional & Business Services. But others are heading lower. Retail has a structural problem. Information, where many tech and social media companies are, dropped sharply, but in recent months re-added jobs hand over fist. And then there’s oil and gas extraction: US production has soared, making the US the largest producer of crude oil and natural gas in the world. But employment around drilling rigs is a fascinating phenomenon. And we’ll look at all of them. In total, business and government entities added an average of 265,000 employees per month over the past three months: This brought total payrolls to 157.8 million, up by 2.75 million from a year ago. Construction, from single-family housing to highways. We have watched how homebuilders are maintaining sales by cutting prices and buying down mortgage rates, and they’re building at a solid pace. And we’ve been amazed by the eyepopping boom in spending on factory construction. And overall construction payrolls surged to another all-time high:

• Total employment: 8.16 million, new record.
• 1-month growth: +23,000
• 3-month growth: +60,000

Manufacturing: Employment has formed an upward slanted high plateau for a year after the post-pandemic employment boom. Strikes are occasionally putting a dent into it, but when the strike is over, employment recovers. February employment was the second-highest, after the recent high set in January.

• Total employment: 12.96 million
• 1-month growth: -4,000
• 3-month growth: +16,000

The categories are by work location. The surveys are sent to business facilities by address. The primary activity at that facility is what determines the category. Just to illustrate: A worker at an Amazon fulfillment center counts under “transportation and warehousing”; a driver operating out of an Amazon delivery center also counts as “transportation and warehousing”; a worker at an office of Amazon’s AWS division would count under “Professional and business services”; a worker at a location that deals with the retail aspects of Amazon’s business would count under “Retail”; a worker at an office that primarily works on the software aspects of Amazon’s ecommerce business might count under “Information.”Oil and gas extraction, tracking employment on drilling sites. This tiny sector in terms of employment is huge in global significance.US production of crude oil and natural gas has exploded since fracking became a big factor in 2008. By now, the US has become the largest producer of crude oil and natural gas globally, with crude oil production in 2023 soaring to a record of 12.9 million barrels per day, as the US became a net-exporter of crude oil and petroleum products; and withnatural gas production soaring to a record 41.3 trillion cubic feet in 2023, as the US became the largest LNG exporter in the world.

February jobs report: the Household Survey is downright recessionary, while the Establishment Survey is decidedly mixed In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:

• Whether there is further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6 month average, or weather gains have held steady. In February, they held steady.
• Whether the unemployment rate is neutral or decreasing; or whether there is further weakness. The recent excellent reports in initial claims suggested this rate would decline. To the contrary, it increased to a new 2 year high; and
• Based on the leading relationship of the quits rate to average hourly earnings, whether YoY wage growth would continue to decline slightly. It did decline, and is tied for a 2.5 year low.

Here’s my in depth synopsis.

• 275,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 223,000. Government jobs increased by 52,000.
• Both December and January were revised downward, by -43,000 and -124,000 respectively, for a total of -167,000. After a break last month, this resumes the pattern from nearly every month last year, when there were a steady drumbeat of downward revisions.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, declined by -184,000. On a YoY basis, in this series only 667,000 jobs, or 0.4%, have been gained. This is the lowest since the pandemic lockdowns.
• The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 3.9%. As indicated above, this is a 2 year high.
• The U6 underemployment rate increased +0.1% to 7.3%, 0.8% above its low of December 2022.
• Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declined -121,000 to 5.672 million, down from its highest level since September 2022, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million set last March
• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, reversed last month’s decline, and was up sharply, by 0.3 hours to 40.5, but is still down -1.0 hour from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours.
• Manufacturing jobs declined -4,000.
• Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -400.
• Construction jobs increased by 23,000.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined by -200 from last month’s post-pandemic high.
• Goods jobs as a whole rose 19,000 to another new expansion high. These should decline before any recession occurs. After revisions, these are up 1.1% YoY, the lowest growth since early in the pandemic, but which is nevertheless average compared with most of the last 40 years.
• Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, fell by another 15,400, and are down about -250,000 since their peak in March 2022.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer rose 186,000 to 2,326,000.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.07, or +0.2%, to $29.71, a YoY gain of +4.5%. This is tied with December for a 2.5 year post-pandemic low.
• the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers increased a strong 1.0%, reversing last month’s big decline. This metric is now up 1.2% YoY.
• the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 1.3%, and is now up 5.9% YoY. This is 2.8% above the most recent YoY inflation rate. This is powerful evidence that average working families continue to see gains in “real” spending money.
• Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose another 58,000, which is only -17,000, or -0.1% below their pre-pandemic peak.
• Within the leisure and hospitality sector, food and drink establishments rose 41,600,. This sector has completely recovered from its pandemic downturn.
• Professional and business employment increased a meager 9,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series had generally been declining since last May, but in the last 3 months has resumed its increase.
• The employment population ratio declined -0.1% to 60.1%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 62.5%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.

SUMMARY: This month’s report, as is so often the case, was a study in marked contrasts between the Establishment Survey, which reported generally strong numbers, and the Household Survey, which was very weak. Nowhere was this more apparent than in the comparative YoY gains. In the former survey, jobs have increased 1.8%, while in the latter they are up a paltry 0.4%. With the exception of 1952, and isolated months in 1996, 2011, and 2013, the latter is downright recessionary.

Comments on February Employment Report – McBride- The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%.Leisure and hospitality gained 58 thousand jobs in February. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 17 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now essentially added back all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Construction employment increased 23 thousand and is now 547 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment decreased 4 thousand jobs and is now 184 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.Earlier: February Employment Report: 275 thousand Jobs, 3.9% Unemployment Rate Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in February to 83.5% from 83.3% in January, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.Both are above pre-pandemic levels.The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% YoY in February. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in February to 4.36 million from 4.42 million in February. This is slightly above pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 7.3% from 7.2% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 1.203 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.277 million the previous month.This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. Through February 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 38 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). Summary: The headline monthly jobs number was above consensus expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. The participation rate was unchanged, the employment population ratio decreased, and the unemployment rate was increased to 3.9%. Another solid report.

BNSF announces 362 job cuts, continuing railroad jobs bloodbath in the US -- Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNSF) railway announced last week that it was cutting 362 jobs from its Mechanical Department. This comes after a 4th quarter 2023 profit in excess of $1.3 billion. The largest Class I railroads, only six of which exist in the US, are among the most profitable companies in the United States, with total 2023 profits in excess of $24 billion. “We have team members in locations on the network where there isn’t sufficient work and simultaneously not enough team members where the growth is occurring,” the company claimed to industry outlet FreightWaves. This is absurd. The reality is the railroad, as with its rivals across the country, have cut jobs to the bone. This has produced an unending series of dangerous accidents, including an average of three derailments per day in the United States. Last year, only weeks after Congress passed a bipartisan anti-strike law to impose a contract on 120,000 railroad workers, BNSF began contracting out some locomotive maintenance to non-union companies, claiming it was necessary to meet a backlog due to “winter weather.” This action was met with impotent squeaks of protest by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and the International Association of Machinists. Shortly before BNSF announced these layoffs, the Association of American Railroads petitioned the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) to grant a waiver allowing Class I railroads to be exempt from performing locomotive safety inspections on account of winter weather.” BNSF mandated six-day work weeks for their mechanical employees to catch up the backlog. Then, the company subsequently began layoffs. Railroad workers will recognize this pattern of decision making typical of the railroads, in which safety and maintenance are sacrificed for Wall Street share values. BNSF also claimed to Freightwaves that the company “has offered location transfers with incentives … BNSF has also offered craft transfers for mechanical employees to be retrained …” But these options are unacceptable to many workers as transfers to other locations or crafts often result in the loss of seniority, basically forcing workers to restart their careers at the bottom of the seniority rosters, as well as uprooting their families with relocation.

Rivian Shelves New Georgia Factory In Latest Cost-Cutting Measures - Two weeks after Rivian Automotive Inc. announced a disappointing production forecast and another round of job cuts, the company's CEO revealed that the construction of a $5 billion factory in Georgia would be put on hold to reduce costs. CEO RJ Scaringe unveiled a crossover EV called the R3. The new model will be priced lower than the R2 to increase affordability and boost sales. Scaringe also surprised investors by announcing its new factory at the Georgia site east of Atlanta would be shelved. "Rivian's Georgia plant remains an extremely important part of its strategy to scale production of R2 and R3. The timing for resuming construction is expected to be later to focus its teams on the capital-efficient launch of R2 in Normal, Illinois," the filing said. The filing noted that the decision reduced capital expenditures for the automaker by $2.25 billion and "improved cash visibility."

Florida GOP Passes 'Vicious' Bill Banning Mandatory Water Breaks for Workers - Displaying "punitive cruelty" toward Florida residents who work outdoors, the Republican-controlled state House on Friday approved a bill that would ban local governments from requiring that workplaces provide water breaks and other cooling measures. The state Senate passed the measure on Thursday, with Republicans pushing the bill through as Miami-Dade County was scheduled to vote on local water break protections. If signed into law by the Republican governor, the proposal will preempt the county's vote.Roughly 2 million workers are expected to be affected by the legislation in Florida, where parts of the state experienced record-breaking heat last year. Meteorologists found that last month was the hottest February ever recorded globally, and the ninth straight month to set such a record.Miami-Dade County officials estimate that 34 people die from heat-related causes each year."Every single year, it's going to get hotter and hotter," Oscar Londoño, executive director of worker advocacy group WeCount!, told The Guardian. "Many more workers' lives are going to be at risk. We will see fatalities, because of what Florida Republicans chose to do this week." Londoño called the bill a "cruel... bad faith attempt to keep labor conditions very low for some of the most vulnerable workers."

"There Are Two Genders": Controversial Mark Robinson Blazes A Path To Victory In South Carolina GOP Primary -- In 2021, when it was still very politically risky to do so, North Carolina Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson gave a fiery speech decrying transgender ideology. "Here's something else I'm not supposed to say, there ain't but two genders. Ain't nothing but men and women." Last night, Robinson - a pastor from Greensboro who has been endorsed by former President Donald Trump - won the Republican primary for governor of North Carolina. Robinson, a 2nd Amendment champion who Trump recently referred to as "Martin Luther King on steroids," has faced intense criticism from the left over past comments about women, Jews, the Holocaust, and LGBTQ people. Robinson faces off against NC Attorney General Josh Stein, who won the Democratic nod Tuesday, and would become North Carolina's first Jewish Governor. Stein and Robinson will compete to replace term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper. "Robinson is an abortion-banning, election denying, social media conspiracy theorist and come November every voter in the state will know exactly who the real Mark Robinson is," texted Morgan Jackson, a senior Stein adviser, to Politico. Robinson, meanwhile, is on a quest to defend America against people "who want to destroy it." Last week, former President Trump endorsed Robinson, to which Robinson said in a statement: "I am humbled to have his endorsement. The failed Biden-Stein agenda of the Democrat Party has brought our country to crisis."

Federal appeals court blocks Florida’s ‘Stop WOKE Act’ rules for businesses A federal appeals court ruled unanimously Monday to block a Florida law preventing businesses from requiring employees to attend workplace trainings that promote diversity and inclusion, affirming a temporary injunction issued by a lower court. “This is not the first era in which Americans have held widely divergent views on important areas of morality, ethics, law, and public policy,” a three-judge panel for the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals wrote in Monday’s decision. “And it is not the first time that these disagreements have seemed so important, and their airing so dangerous, that something had to be done. But now, as before, the First Amendment keeps the government from putting its thumb on the scale.” Florida officials, since introducing the “Stop WOKE Act” — in which “woke” is an acronym for “Wrongs to Our Kids and Employees” — have argued that the legislation is intended to combat alleged indoctrination in schools and workplaces. The law prevents Florida educators and businesses from requiring individuals to participate in activities that promote “discriminatory concepts” constituting unlawful discrimination, including that members of one race or sex are “morally superior” to those of another and that a person, by virtue of their race, sex or national origin, “should be discriminated against or receive adverse treatment to achieve diversity, equity or inclusion.” “In Florida, we will not let the far-left woke agenda take over our schools and workplaces. There is no place for indoctrination or discrimination in Florida,” Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), a frequent critic of diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives, said while signing the bill in 2022. Three Florida businesses sued the state that June, and a federal judge in August 2022 blocked portions of the law pertaining to private employers, ruling that the restrictions violate free speech protections under the First Amendment and the 14th Amendment’s Due Process Clause for being impermissibly vague. “Recently, Florida has seemed like a First Amendment upside down,” District Court Judge Mark Walker wrote in the ruling. “Normally, the First Amendment bars the state from burdening speech, while private actors may burden speech freely. But in Florida, the First Amendment apparently bars private actors from burdening speech, while the state may burden speech freely.” Attorneys for the state argued in an appeal that, in this case, ordinary First Amendment review is not applicable because the law in question restricts conduct, not speech. Monday’s three-judge panel said they disagreed. “We cannot agree, and we reject this latest attempt to control speech by recharacterizing it as conduct,” the panel said. “Florida may be exactly right about the nature of the ideas it targets. Or it may not. Either way, the merits of these views will be decided in the clanging marketplace of ideas rather than a codebook or a courtroom.”

Kentucky seeks to remove child labor restrictions - On February 22, the Kentucky House of Representatives voted 60-36 to send a bill to the state Senate which would remove restrictions on the number of hours and types of work which can be performed by children under the age of 18.The number of working hours allowed in Kentucky is already absurdly high. Currently, 16- and 17-year-olds are legally allowed to work up to six hours on a designated school day, with the limit increasing to eight hours on a non-school day. They are allowed to work a total of 30 hours per week, or 32.5 hours with parental consent, as long as they maintain at least a 2.0 grade point average.House Bill (HB) 255 seeks to remove these restrictions. Through vague language, it will allow for 16- and 17-year-olds to be scheduled for an unlimited number of hours each week, even during the school year, opening the door for employers to schedule these teens for late or overnight shifts and even during school hours.The bill is part of the effort by the American ruling class to turn back the clock to the time when American capitalism was built through the use of child labor and horrendous working conditions in factories, mills and mines. Continuously promoting the false notion that “nobody wants to work any more,” the ruling class is stepping up systematic attacks upon the younger generations, who have already shown that they are more militant and increasingly hostile to capitalism.Proponents of HB 255 claim that it will bring the state into alignment with federal regulations that are already less restrictive for minors in this age range. In fact, the bill goes a step further, allowing some minors, even under the age of 16, to work in more hazardous occupations that are prohibited by current state and federal laws, such as meat processing plants, the logging and sawmill industry, manufacturing, and more. The bill also seeks to remove the Workplace Standards Commissioner. This is a state position responsible for regulating labor laws, with the authority to impose further regulations on top of what is listed by the federal Secretary of Labor. Effectively, the bill would block the state from referencing federal law in its enforcement.

Flood Of Migrant Children To Put Estimated $2 Billion Strain On Public School System - Last month, CBO Director Phill Swagel claimed that the influx of illegal immigrants into the United States will boost 2023-2034 GDP by "about 7 Trillion." Yet while we wait for those unicorn farts to percolate, the Heritage Foundation estimates in a new report that the influx of migrants is costing American taxpayers billions of dollars, as most of the 470,000 unaccompanied migrant children who have entered the country since Joe Biden's 2021 inauguration have been enrolled in public schools. In FY2023 alone, CBP encountered 145,474 accompanied and unaccompanied minors nationwide - which, based on the national average of $16,345 spent per student, would increase national education spending by more than $2 billion for one year, according to the Heritage report's fact sheet. The report looked at instances in California, New York, Texas and Arizona where unaccompanied minors were sent to sponsors, according to data from the Office of Refugee Resettlement (ORR), a government agency under the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). For example, in California, 11,121 unaccompanied migrant children were sent to sponsors. If all those children enrolled in public school, at the state average spending of $16,975 per pupil, that equates to an additional cost of about $189 million for one year. The report similarly found that in New York, 8,477 unaccompanied migrant children were sent to sponsors. The state spends $28,261 on each pupil per year, making the total additional cost to taxpayers close to $240 million for one year. -Fox News "Parents should not also have to worry about their kids going to the back of the line in terms of school resources, teacher attention, and academic rigor due to sudden and large influxes of illegal aliens into their schools and classrooms," Heritage scholars and two of the report's authors, Lindsey Burke and Lora Ries, told Fox News Digital. The report also highlights the misuse of school property, classroom mismanagement and limited English proficiency, which is holding other students back. As an example, Fox News cites the case of New York City parents who were furious with city officials after Brooklyn Hight School students were forced to stay home for virtual lessons so that migrants could pile into the school gymnasium. Other reports suggest that NY Public Schools have struggled to educate some 20,000 new migrant students

Harvard University caving in as “antisemitism” witch-hunt intensifies -- Billionaire donors, right-wing interest groups and fascistic elements in Congress are mounting an assault on academic freedom and democratic rights at Harvard University in an effort to shut down student and faculty opposition to the genocide in Gaza. The attack on Harvard is intended as a spearhead in an effort by capitalists and politicians to undermine higher education and anti-genocide protests across the country. Harvard leadership has responded with complete spinelessness to these provocations, adapting itself to right-wing pressure. Beginning with the forced resignation of President Claudine Gay, it has facilitated the most reactionary attempts to impose a repressive framework at Harvard. In an obvious attempt to placate the right wing, the Harvard administration this week promoted John Manning, the conservative head of Harvard’s Law School, to the second highest administration position in the university, naming him university provost. This puts Manning in position to succeed interim president Alan Garber, the former provost, who has said he will not return to his old position if the Harvard board of regents does not choose him as the permanent replacement for Gay. If Garber were to resign or retire, Manning would then become interim president. Manning has worked his way up the ladder of right-wing judicial activists. He served as a law clerk first for Appeals Court Justice Robert Bork, then for Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. According to the Harvard Crimson, Manning was brought into university leadership at the outset by then-Harvard Law School dean Elena Kagan—who went on to be appointed by Barack Obama to the Supreme Court—to add more “conservative voices” at Harvard. In 2017, as deputy dean of the law school, Manning was chosen to deliver the “Scalia lecture,” an annual event begun in 2014 to celebrate the ultra-right justice, a Harvard graduate. The occasion in 2017 was the donation of Scalia’s papers to the Harvard Law School archives. Scalia’s widow Maureen and his son Eugene, a Trump administration cabinet official, attended the lecture. In 2018 Manning became embroiled in a controversy over maintaining the teaching position at Harvard Law School of ultra-conservative Appeals Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh after the latter was elevated to the Supreme Court by Trump. Manning refused to remove Kavanaugh from his teaching position, as demanded by students and alumni at the time. Kavanaugh went on to make a display of right-wing vitriol at his confirmation hearing before Congress. The placing of such a right-wing figure in the line of succession to the presidency of the prestigious university is another capitulation to the hysterical right-wing campaign over alleged “antisemitism” on the campus of Harvard and other major universities The House Committee on Education and the Workforce, chaired by far-right Republican Virginia Foxx, is demanding Harvard hand over reams of information on “antisemitism,” going back to 2021, by next Monday. This includes potentially thousands of pages of minutes of meetings by Harvard’s administration, documentation on any internal discussions of antisemitism and, ominously, a full count of students and faculty who have participated in the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) protest movement. The congressional committee has rejected Harvard’s attempt so far to comply, even though the university has already submitted over 2,500 pages of documentation.

More Than $11 Million In Fentanyl Pills Seized In Massive Bust At U.S./Mexico Border -- U.S. Customs and Border Protection Officers (CBP) at the San Ysidro Port of Entry made a massive bust over the weekend, discovering more than $11 million of blue fentanyl pills concealed in a car on Sunday. At the San Ysidro POE around 8PM on Sunday night, a K-9 unit encountered a "37-year-old man driving a 2008 sedan applying for admission into the United States from Mexico," a release from Customs and Border Patrol revealed over the weekend. The K-9 unit alerted for drugs near the glove compartment and the vehicle was referred for further inspection, at which point "CBP officers extracted a total of 100 packages containing blue pills concealed within the vehicle’s dashboard and within the front passenger seats".The release noted that the pills were tested and found to be fentanyl. Investigators ultimately uncovered approximately 561,000 tablets, weighing in at 123.6 pounds, with an estimated street value of around $11.22 million.Mariza Marin, Port Director for the San Ysidro Port of Entry, commented: “Fentanyl is a very lethal drug that continues to be encountered along our southern border. I’m very proud of the exceptional work by our officers who skillfully interdict illicit narcotics on a daily basis.”The individual was placed under the supervision of Homeland Security Investigations for additional scrutiny. CBP officers confiscated both the drugs and the vehicle involved.This confiscation is a component of Operation Apollo, a collaborative regional initiative that unites federal, state, and local agencies in the fight against the menace posed by fentanyl and other illegal synthetic drugs.

Much Stronger Than Fentanyl, Nitazene Presents A Looming Crisis - A new killer has emerged in the illegal drug market, leaving a trail of bodies in its wake. Synthetic opioids called nitazenes—up to 20 times more potent than fentanyl—have infiltrated street drugs from heroin to benzodiazepines, catching unsuspecting users in a web of addiction and overdose (OD) death.These opioids have evaded authorities and fueled a silent epidemic, presenting novel dangers law enforcement is only beginning to grasp.Nitazenes belong to a class of synthetic opioids called isotonitazenes, or ISOs. These compounds have gained attention due to their powerful painkilling properties. First developed in the 1950s, nitazenes were never approved for medical use and long remained obscure, known only in academic circles.A defining trait of nitazenes is their extremely high potency—hundreds to thousands of times more potent than morphine and other older opioids and 10 to 20 times more powerful than fentanyl, which is already fueling the nation’s current drug crisis.Although it’s theorized that these compounds are coming from China, “nobody really knows for sure,”Dr. Jarid Pachter from Stony Brook Medicine, who specializes in family medicine and addiction medicine, told The Epoch Times.So far, 20 distinct types of nitazenes have been detected in illegal street drugs, turning up with increasing frequency. As Schedule I drugs in the United States, a class that includes drugs with no accepted medical use and high abuse and addiction potential, all nitazenes are illegal.Nitazenes are being used to spike and strengthen illegal drugs while also making them cheaper to produce, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). But this chemical tampering has already led to deadly overdoses.

CDC urges actively infectious COVID-19 patients to return to work and school - On Friday, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued new guidelines urging people who are actively infectious with COVID-19 to return to schools and workplaces, thereby infecting their coworkers and the general public. Under the guidelines, workers are encouraged to return to work 24 hours after their last fever, a period in which the vast majority of COVID-19 patients will be actively infectious. This guidance has no basis whatsoever in public health. It has two fundamental aims. First, it seeks to ensure that workers show up on the job even as they pose a major safety threat to their co-workers and customers, in order to create profits for large corporations. Second, and no less important, by allowing COVID-19 to spread uninterrupted, the US government, speaking on behalf of the financial oligarchy, is seeking to reduce life expectancy and create the conditions for the early deaths of older Americans and immunocompromised people. The CDC’s policy change is being implemented under conditions in which COVID-19 is circulating at a higher level than at the same time during any previous year of the pandemic and under conditions in which all restrictions on the spread of the virus have been dropped. Due to the ending of all pandemic surveillance after the Biden administration scrapped the COVID-19 public health emergency declaration last May, the circulation of COVID can now only be seen through wastewater data. Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics, showing that current wastewater levels are higher than any previous year of the pandemic at this time of the year. [Photo: Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics] The CDC’s new policy lumps COVID-19 together with other respiratory viruses, including seasonal influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), encouraging all those infected with these pathogens to report to work and resume normal activities. At least one-quarter of working Americans lack any sick leave, which is often taken from their paid time off (PTO). Among private-sector workers, only 40 percent of the lowest paid workers are provided sick leave. Now, bosses and managers can invoke the CDC’s guidelines to demand that their employees come to work sick or risk being fired. Every aspect of the new guidelines goes against the well-known scientific truths about COVID-19: Without testing, patients cannot determine by themselves whether or not they are infectious; a large percentage of COVID-19 transmission is through asymptomatic patients; fever is only one of over a dozen COVID-19 symptoms; upwards of 20-40 percent of COVID-19 patients are still infectious after five days, with some more than a week. The guidelines are in direct contrast to the basic principles of public health, which aim to limit the spread of all pathogens and minimize the morbidity and mortality burden suffered by society. Instead of advocating an expansion of paid sick leave for all workers, mass testing, contact tracing, and other basic public health measures for COVID-19, influenza and RSV, the CDC reduced to the bare minimum its isolation recommendation for all respiratory viruses, while no longer encouraging testing whatsoever for COVID-19.

Latest COVID vaccine, antivirals lower risk of severe COVID-19, new data show - According to new research from the Cleveland Clinic published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, updated COVID-19 vaccines—the monovalent (single-strain) XBB.1.5 shots—reduced the risk of severe COVID-19 by 31%, and the use of antiviral drugs reduced the risk of severe disease by 42%. The findings come on the tail of research from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published last week that showed adults with multiple and updated doses of vaccine plus the antiviral Paxlovid had a 78% reduction in the risk of hospitalization for COVID-19 infections.The present study included outcomes seem among 27,194 patients aged 12 years and older in the Cleveland Clinic Health System who had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection in outpatient settings from September 12 to December 31, 2023.Thirty-three percent of patients were between the ages of 12 and 49, 24% were ages 50 to 64, 31% were ages 65 to 74, and 21% were 75 years or older. The average age was 57.5 years, and 3,315 had received an updated XBB.1.5 vaccine. Of the 12.2% that had received an updated vaccine, 66% had gotten a Pfizer-BioNTech shot, and 32% received Moderna.In total, 12,387 (45.6%) received oral antivirals to combat their infections, with 80% taking Paxlovid (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir) and 20% taking Lagevrio (molnupiravir). As of January 15, 2024, 1,637 patients (6.0%) had been admitted to a hospital, and 243 (0.9%) had died.The hazard ratio (HR) for XBB.1.5 vaccination was estimated at 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.81), or 31% protection against hospitalization or death, and the HR for antiviral treatment was 0.58 (0.52 to 0.65), or 42% protection.In further analysis, the HR was 0.61 (95% CI, 0.54 to 0.69) for Paxlovid and 0.50 (0.41 to 0.60) for molnupiravir. Additionally, the HR for antiviral treatment was 0.47 in patients who had received XBB.1.5 vaccines and 0.59 in those who had not.In patients aged 65 years or older, the HR was 0.66 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.79) for XBB.1.5 vaccination (34% protection) and 0.52 (0.45 to 0.60) for antiviral treatment (48% protection). In contrast, in patients aged younger than 65 years, the HR was 0.82 (0.59 to 1.15) for XBB.1.5 vaccination (18% protection) and 0.69 (0.57 to 0.82) for antiviral treatment (31% protection).During the study period, the authors said, the dominant variants changed from EG.5 to HV.1 and JN.1, and the proportion of XBB.1.5 declined from 9% to 4%. The vaccine still offered good protection, however, the authors said, despite the changing landscape of variants.

COVID vaccination in first half of menstrual cycle tied to temporarily longer cycles - Women vaccinated against COVID-19 in the first half of their menstrual cycle (follicular phase) are more likely to see slight, short-term changes in cycle length than those vaccinated in the second half (luteal phase), concludes a large study published in Obstetrics & Gynecology. A team led by Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU) parsed data on the effect of COVID-19 vaccination timing during the menstrual cycles of 19,497 women of reproductive age using a birth-control app. Menstrual-cycle outcomes among the vaccinated women were compared with those of an unvaccinated control group. Most participants (80.1%) were younger than 35 years and were from North America (28.6%), Europe (33.5%), or the United Kingdom (31.7%). In the follicular phase of menstruation, eggs begin to develop in small sacs called follicles, one of which could be released for fertilization during ovulation, while the luteal phase occurs after ovulation. Women who received their first or second COVID-19 vaccine dose in the follicular phase noted that their cycle lasted, on average, 1 day longer than before vaccination (first dose, 1.0 day; second dose, 1.1 days). Those vaccinated in the luteal phase and unvaccinated participants saw no change in cycle length (first dose, −0.09 days; second dose, 0.06 days; unvaccinated notional first dose, 0.08 days; second notional dose, 0.17

Study of 1 million US kids shows vaccines tied to lower risk of long COVID - A study of 1,037,936 US children seen in 17 healthcare systems across the country shows that COVID-19 vaccines are moderately protective against long COVID: 35% to 45%, with higher rates in adolescents. The study was published today inPediatrics.The researchers estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against long COVID in children aged 5 to 17 years. Though severe COVID-19 cases are less common in children than in adults, persistent symptoms in children do occur."It is difficult to establish how much this results from differential reporting of symptoms at different ages, greater difficulty distinguishing long COVID from other childhood illnesses or effects of the pandemic (eg, disruption of seasonal viral patterns, or of school progress," the authors wrote.This is the first known study to investigate if vaccination protects children from long COVID, a question that has been asked of adults, with mostly positive results.In today's study, the researchers assessed electronic health records to establish both vaccination status of children and long-COVID diagnosis, defined as two or more visits with diagnosis codes specific for long COVID.The study included two groups: 480,298 children ages 5 to 11, and 557,638 children ages 12 to 17. Overall, 67% received at least 1 SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, and 88% of vaccinated children received 2 or more doses.Girls, increasing age, and being Asian were associated with COVID-19 vaccination.According to the authors, the prevalence of probable long COVID was 0.3% in the cohort overall—but that included those who hadn't had COVID-19 previously. For children with COVID-19 after cohort entry, they said, the prevalence of diagnosed long COVID was 0.8%, and adding probable cases raised the prevalence of long COVID to 4.5%.In total, for children who were vaccinated and had no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, VE was 35% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25% to 45%) against long COVID. VE increased to 45% (95% CI, 35% to 53%) against probable long COVID within 12 months for children with two confirmed vaccine doses.

Low iron may play key role in long COVID -- Patients who went on to develop long COVID showed more problems with regulation of blood iron levels, including anemia, as soon as 2 weeks after acute infection, suggesting low iron levels may play a role in the chronic condition, according to a new study in Nature Immunology. The study was based on blood samples from 214 patients collected via the Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease. All participants provided multiple blood samples during and after a COVID-19 infection for 12 months.The researchers found that long COVID was associated with how quickly inflammation and low iron levels regulated after acute infection. People who took a longer time to demonstrate regulation, and had more severe initial infections, were at an increased risk of long COVID.Iron dysregulation is common after all infections, the authors explained, as iron is quickly moved out of the bloodstream to avoid becoming a trap for lethal bacteria."If this goes on for a long time, there is less iron for red blood cells, so oxygen is transported less efficiently, affecting metabolism and energy production, and for white blood cells, which need iron to work properly," said study author Hal Drakesmith, PhD, from the University of Oxford, in a press release from the University of Cambridge. "The protective mechanism ends up becoming a problem." All study participants were enrolled in August 2020 and were categorized into five groups: Eighteen people with asymptomatic infections (group A), 40 people with mild symptomatic infections (group B), 48 with moderate infections that did not require supplemental oxygenation (group C), 39 people with moderate infections who required supplemental oxygen (group D), and 69 people who had severe infections and required ventilation (group E). Blood samples were collected for participants during six time period (days 0 to 14, 15 to 30, 31 to 90, 91 to 180, and 181 to 360 post-onset), and compared to serology from COVID-negative healthy controls. For participants who required minimal supplemental oxygen, their levels of C-reactive protein as well as cytokines remained elevated for weeks and months longer than healthy controls or those with mild infections, the authors found. The iron-regulating hormone hepcidin was also elevated in the blood of groups with moderate to severe COVID-19 at day 0 to 14 compared to healthy controls. Elevated hepcidin is a characteristic of inflammatory anemia, or low oxygen in the blood. "There was little evidence of systemic inflammation or associated disruptions to the iron levels of groups A and B," the authors wrote, referencing the asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic participants. "Iron dysregulation and hypoxia may sustain a destructive cycle of impaired immune function, poor viral control and inflammation that contributes to tissue-specific and systemic manifestations of severe acute COVID-19, and potential disruption of long-term immune memory," the authors said. Fatigue and exercise intolerance, two hallmark symptoms in long COVID, could be related to poor iron regulation, the authors suggested. Iron dysregulation and hypoxia may sustain a destructive cycle of impaired immune function. There could be a role for iron supplementation during the acute phase of COVID-19 infection, the authors said, as well as a role as potential treatment for long COVID.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA can persist in blood, tissue, may play role in long COVID, research suggests - SARS-CoV-2 viral fragments can remain in blood and tissue for more than a year after infection, which researchers at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) say could contribute to long COVID.In two studies, the researchers found SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the blood for up to 14 months post-infection and for more than 2 years in connective-tissue samples from 171 COVID-19 survivors without evidence of reinfection. The team obtained the samples from UCSF's Long COVID Tissue Bank, which houses samples donated by patients with and without long COVID.The investigators presented the results at this week's Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections in Denver.The probability of having persistent viral fragments was about double in hospitalized participants and in those who reported being very ill but weren't hospitalized. "As a clinician, these associations convince me that we are on to something, because it makes sense that someone who had been sicker with COVID would have more antigen that can stick around," Michael Peluso, MD, who led the studies, said in a UCSF news release. Because viral RNA was found in connective tissue where immune cells are located, the study authors said the RNA may have been causing an immune response. "These two studies provide some of the strongest evidence so far that COVID antigens can persist in some people, even though we think they have normal immune responses," Peluso said.He added that more research is needed to determine whether the viral RNA contributes to long COVID and related events such as heart attack and stroke. His team is involved in clinical trials that are studying whether monoclonal antibodies or antiviral drugs can eliminate the RNA and benefit long-COVID patients. "There is a lot more work to be done, but I feel like we are making progress in really understanding the long-term consequences of this infection," Peluso said.

Even healthcare workers face difficulty accessing long-COVID care, review suggests Healthcare workers (HCWs) with long-COVID symptoms reported that their physicians shrugged off their concerns and that they struggled to get the care they needed, a newsystematic review suggests.For the rapid review, published yesterday in PLOS One, researchers from the University of Aberdeen and Robert Gordon University in Scotland reviewed 30 studies published from December 2019 to December 2022 to evaluate the effects of long COVID on HCW health, working life, personal circumstances, and use of healthcare resources. Two of the studies provided qualitative evidence, and 28 survey studies offered quantitative evidence. The researchers identified five themes, which were uncertainty about symptoms, problems accessing services, the importance of listening and support, patient versus professional identity, and identification of ways to improve communication and services for long-COVID patients."Most participants described a deterioration in their ability to carry out everyday tasks, including clinicians concerned about the safety of their practice, and raised concerns over whether they would ever recover or return to work," the study authors wrote.HCWs who did return to work said they worried about not being able to function at the required level or make sufficient contributions to their workplace. Many turned to social media for information and support, with some saying they were now better able to empathize with long-COVID patients and those with inconclusive test results."A number of us in the group have said how ashamed we are of some of the attitudes we've had towards people, and lack of empathy… This concept of being irritated by patients when they're not really pleased when something comes back normal… Hopefully, it will make me a better and more empathetic doctor at the end," a physician said in one study.

Yet another study shows little benefit for ivermectin with COVID-19 - A new randomized control trial from the United Kingdom shows that using ivermectin during COVID-19 infections provided little improvement in recovery rates in patients treated in clinics. The study appeared in the Journal of Infection. The anti-parasitic drug has been investigated since 2020 as a potential treatment for COVID-19. Some early trials suggested the drug was able to reduce mortality rates and improve outcomes, but several of them had serious flaws, the authors noted. Subsequent trials and systematic reviews have largely disproved those earlier results. The present, open-arm study compared outcomes among 8,811 SARS-CoV-2–positive participants (median symptom duration, 5 days), who were randomized to outpatient treatment with ivermectin (2,157), standard care (3,256), and other treatments (3,398) from June 23, 2021, to July 1, 2022. All participants were followed up for 28 days. The observed median time to first recovery was 14 days in the ivermectin group and 15 in the usual-care group. The authors said this result was statistically significant (hazard ratio 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07 to 1.23), but the estimated hazard ratio was less than the pre-specified meaningful effect of 1.2. Ivermectin also did not reduce the number of hospitalizations. Use of the drug, however, was associated with a slight increase in the proportion of participants feeling fully recovered at 3, 6 and 12 months. At 6 months, 74% of respondents in the ivermectin group and 71% in the usual care group reported feeling fully recovered from the original COVID-19 illness (rate ratio 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02 to 1.08). "Overall, these findings, while evidencing a small benefit in symptom duration, do not support the use of ivermectin as treatment for COVID-19 in the community among a largely vaccinated population at the dose and duration we used," the authors wrote.

Study: Pandemic contributed to gastrointestinal cancer underdiagnosis The COVID-19 pandemic likely contributed to the underdiagnosis of patients with high-risk gastrointestinal (HRGI) cancers and increased diagnoses of stage 4 cancers, but there was no change in 1-year survival or operative mortality among patients with HGRI cancers in 2020, according to research published yesterday in JAMA Network Open.The findings add to the growing body of literature describing if and by how much the shutdowns of the early pandemic contributed to an increase in delayed cancer diagnosis. Prior research has shown that missed diagnoses of breast and prostate cancers, which are regularly detected during annual screenings, increased in 2020. Other research has shown that, before the widespread availability of vaccines, cancer patients suffered worse outcomes.In the new study, investigators looked at patients with HRGI cancers, including esophageal, gastric, primary liver, and pancreatic cancers. Those cancer patients already more often seek care at advanced stages and have increased risks of perioperative mortality and worse survival.The study included patients identified via the National Cancer Database from January 1, 2018, through December 31, 2020.In total 156,937 patients with these cancers were identified and followed up for at least 1 year. The primary outcomes were trends in newly diagnosed cases, stage at diagnosis, and mortality, the authors said.In total, 33.2% of patients were diagnosed in 2018, 34.5% in 2019, and 32.3% in 2020. Of the included patients, 17.4% had esophageal cancer, 13.5% had gastric cancer, 23.1% had primary liver cancer, and 45.9% had pancreatic cancer. Almost 64% were men, and 35% were between the ages of 60 and 69.Newly diagnosed HRGI cancers in March through May 2020, compared with diagnoses made during the same timeframe in prior years, were significantly lower, with at least 3,000 fewer cases diagnosed in 2020. In April 2020 alone, there were 1,500 fewer new cases of HRGI cancers than in the prior year.Patients with HRGI were also more likely diagnosed in later stages of their disease in 2020. Stage 1 diagnoses dropped by 3.9% in 2020, and stage 2 diagnoses by 2.3%, but stage 4 diagnoses increased by 7.1%."During the early months of the pandemic, patients with milder symptoms may have delayed seeking medical advice, whereas those with severe symptoms due to advanced disease had to seek care by necessity," the authors said.

Severe COVID-19, death lowest by far among vaccinated Canadians - The incidence of COVID-19 infection and poor outcomes in the last half of 2021 was consistently lowest among Canadians who completed a primary vaccination series and highest among the unvaccinated, with the most severe consequences among those aged 80 and older of any vaccination status, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) reports.The researchers mined the National COVID-19 Case Dataset and the Canadian COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage Surveillance System for data on people aged 12 years and older in 12 of 13 provinces and territories by vaccination status, COVID-19 outcomes, and demographic factors from December 2020 to January 2022.During the study period, 1,194,694 COVID-19 infections in patients with complete vaccination history (73.6% of all cases) were reported to PHAC. Most infected patients were unvaccinated, and the lowest percentage of infections was among those who received a primary COVID-19 vaccination series and one booster dose.During the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant (May to July 2021), compared with vaccinated people, the unvaccinated were 6.8 times more likely to be infected, 11.4 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 17.5 times more likely to die. Amid Delta predominance (July to December 2021), those figures were 6.2, 21.0, and 15.4, respectively.After the emergence of the Omicron variant (December 2021 to January 2022), the increased likelihoods for unvaccinated participants were 0.9, 7.1, and 11.3 for infection, hospitalization, and death, respectively."Case incidence in 2021 was consistently highest in unvaccinated individuals, with younger age groups having the highest incidence rates," the authors wrote."Starting in spring 2021, there was an increase in vaccine breakthrough cases, consistent with studies showing that, although completion of a primary vaccination series was highly effective in preventing infection against the wild-type virus and Alpha variant, it was slightly less effective against the Beta, Gamma, and Delta variants."Rates of poor outcomes were consistently highest among those aged 80 years and older, followed by those aged 60 to 79 for all vaccination statuses. Infection incidence was highest among adults aged 18 to 39, followed by those aged 40 to 59, from mid-2021 to late August 2021. Infection incidence rates of in these older age-groups fell after vaccine uptake rose, until Omicron emergence. "Vaccination remains one of the most important public health interventions, particularly among older adults, to protect against COVID-19 severe outcomes as the pandemic evolves," the study authors wrote. "Routine monitoring of COVID-19 outcomes by vaccination status can identify changes in COVID-19 epidemiology and inform public health action and policy."

BA.2.87.1 COVID variant detected in Southeast Asia Scientists examining SARS-CoV-2 wastewater samples in Southeast Asia have detected a few samples containing the BA.2.87.1 variant, the first known detection outside of South Africa.In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Leshan Wannigama, MD, PhD, a clinical microbiologist and infectious disease specialist in the department of infectious diseases and infection control at Japan's Yamagata Prefectural Central Hospital, said the team found a "handful" of samples and that transmission seems to be very low.He added that the variant was found in samples from the last week of December 2023 and the second week of January 2024.South African scientists identified a small number of BA.2.87.1 sequences in samples collected from September to December, while noting the virus wasn't causing an increase in cases. The virus is distinct from other circulating variants and has 100 mutations when compared to the BA.2 parent lineage and contains changes that could prompt an antigenic shift.In mid February, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it is closely monitoringBA.2.87.1 because it has more than 30 changes in the spike protein compared to XBB.1.5, the variant covered by the current monovalent (single-strain) vaccines.The CDC said viruses with multiple spike protein changes could increase the potential for immune escape from earlier infection or vaccination. It emphasized that experience with BA.2.86 and its JN.1 offshoot serves as a reminder that variant transmissibility can change quickly over time.The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has also designated BA.2.87.1 as a variant under monitoring.

Except for flu, US respiratory virus levels continue to ebb - Respiratory virus activity in the United States loosened its grip more last week, as COVID-19 activity continues to decline and a few regions of the country fell below their baselines for flu, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its updates today. Last week, 20 jurisdictions reported high or very high respiratory illness activity, down from 26 the previous week, the CDC said in its latest respiratory virus snapshot. Emergency department visits for flu, COVID, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) all declined last week. Of the three diseases, flu remains elevated, with increases reported in some parts of the country, especially in central and eastern states, the CDC said in its weekly FluView update. However, flu activity fell below baselines in the Northwest and Mountain West regions for the first time since November.The percentage of respiratory samples that tested positive for flu at clinical labs held steady, at 13.9%. Meanwhile, testing at public health labs last week revealed that 71.1% of flu samples were influenza A and 28.9% were influenza B. Of the subtyped influenza A viruses, 57.3% were the 2009 H1N1 virus.Among other markers, outpatient visits for flulike illness declined but remain above the national baseline. Hospitalizations remained stable, and have been trending downward slightly since the middle of February. Overall deaths from flu held steady. The CDC received reports of 10 more pediatric flu deaths, raising the season's total to 103. The deaths occurred between the end of December and into the first week of March. Six were linked to influenza A, and four were due to influenza B. Of two subtyped influenza A viruses, one was H1N1 and the other the H3N2 strain. COVID markers continued to decline last week, and of the early indicators, wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections declined from high to moderate. Detections are still highest in the South but are steadily decreasing. Of the two severity indicators, hospitalizations declined 13.6% last week, and deaths held steady, the CDC said in its latest COVID data updates. For the week ending March 2, 577 deaths due to COVID were reported to the CDC. Among early markers, test positivity dropped slightly and is at 6.5% nationally, and emergency department visits for COVID fell 21.2% compared to the week before. Markers for RSV also continue downward trends across the country. Six regions in the East, South, and Southwest are now below their epidemic thresholds. Hospitalizations—known to be higher in infants and older people—are declining for all age-groups, the CDC said.

Data show no evidence that rapid respiratory virus tests reduce antibiotic use -- Routine use of rapid respiratory viral tests in emergency departments (EDs) has limited value for the general public, according to the results of a review and meta-analysispublished today in JAMA Internal Medicine.The review, which evaluated 11 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) involving patients of any age who had an acute respiratory infection (ARI) and visited an ED, found that while rapid viral testing in EDs was associated with higher influenza antiviral use in patients who tested positive, it had no association with overall antibiotic use, length of ED stay, return visits to the ED, or hospitalization rates. The authors of the study said the results suggest the tests—which are designed to distinguish between viral and bacterial respiratory infections and are recommended by some antimicrobial stewardship guidelines to help reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescribing—should be reserved for patients in whom the results will change treatment.To assess the impact of rapid viral testing in EDs, researchers from Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom reviewed RCTs published after 1984 that involved the use of ED rapid respiratory virus testing or the awareness of the treating physician of the test results.The primary outcome was the association with antibiotic prescribing during the ED visit. Secondary outcomes included influenza antiviral use, additional tests (eg, chest x-ray, blood culture, urine culture), length of ED stay, ED return visits, or hospitalization.Of the 7,157 RCTs identified, 11 involving 6,068 patients (16% adults) were included in the pooled analyses. With high certainty of evidence, those studies showed little or no difference in antibiotic use between rapid viral testing and controls (risk ratio [RR], 0.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93 to 1.05). Nor was there any difference in antibiotic use by age-group, type of rapid viral test, number of viral targets, or risk of bias. Although analysis of seven RCTs showed that fewer patients with a positive rapid viral test for flu were prescribed antibiotics, a finding that may suggest more appropriate prescribing in this subgroup, the study authors note that this finding was observed only in studies involving monoplex antigen tests for influenza and not in studies that used the newer molecular multiplex panels that can detect multiple viruses. In addition, it was counterbalanced by more antibiotic prescribing for patients with negative test results."Given the absence of benefit of RV [rapid viral] testing on overall antibiotic use, these findings suggest that RV testing should not be routine, but rather should be reserved for patients for whom the testing will change treatment," the authors wrote.

Survey finds low rate of Candida auris screening in US hospitals -- A survey of infectious disease (ID) practitioners suggests Candida auris screening rates are low at US hospitals, researchers reported today in Infection Control & Hospital Epidemiology.The survey, sent to roughly 3,000 ID physicians who belong to the Infectious Diseases Society of America Emerging Infections Network (EIN) in August 2022, included questions about whether C auris screening was performed in the respondent's facility, whether patients were screened on admission or once they were already in the facility, the number of screening tests conducted, and the number of cases identified. Regions where C auris is frequently identified or endemic were labeled tier 3 or 4 areas, and those in non-endemic areas were labeled tier 2.Of the 253 responses, 119 (47%) were from tier 3 or 4 areas and 134 (53%) from tier 2 areas. Responses were received from 37 states, mostly from California (87), New York (17), Illinois (12), and Florida (11). Overall, 37% reported that C auris screening was conducted in their facility, with more respondents from tier 3 or 4 areas reporting screening than those in tier 2 areas (59% vs 17%). Among respondents who said they screened for the pathogen, 77% reported screening on admission, and 51% reported screening patients already in the facility. Screening on admission was higher in facilities in tier 3 or 4 areas than in tier 2 areas (84% vs 55%).Of the 68 respondents who reported positive cases detected in the previous year, 75% reported having identified more than one case, and 37% reported more than five cases.The emerging fungus, which was first identified in the United States in 2016, is considered a serious health threat because it can cause severe illness, spreads easily among patients in healthcare settings and is difficult to eradicate, and is frequently resistant to antifungal treatment.

US measles cases rise to 41 -- Since its last update on February 23, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last weekreported 6 more measles cases, raising the nation's total so far this year to 41. Against a backdrop of rising global activity this winter, measles infections in the first months of the year are gaining quickly on the 58 cases the CDC reported for all of 2023. The CDC reported 1 more affected state, Michigan, raising the number of jurisdictions reporting cases to 16. In related developments, two more cases have been reported in Michigan, raising the state's total to three. Officials recently reported the state's first case since 2019, which involved a child in Oakland County.One of the new cases involves a detection in Washtenaw County. In a statement yesterday, county health officials issued an alert about a local case and warned of potential exposure at Trinity Health Ann Arbor Emergency Department on March 1. The other new case is in Wayne County. In a March 3 news release, the county health department said the patient is an adult thought to have contracted the virus during international travel. Officials warned of potential exposures at a pharmacy and different medical clinics in Dearborn on February 27 and February 29. Wayne County Public Health said the recent cases in Michigan aren't epidemiologically linked.

Five African countries report more vaccine-derived polio cases - Five African countries reported more polio cases this week, all involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative.In West Africa, Guinea confirmed 1 case, which was reported from Kindia and is included in its total for 2023, which is now at 47. Mali reported 3 cases in Bamako, Menaka, and Kayes, lifting its 2023 total to 15. Nigeria reported 8 cases, including 3 to add to its 2023 total. Four cases were in Kano, with the others in Sokoto, Katsina, and Kebbi.In Central Africa, Chad reported 1 case in Moyen Chari, which is counted with its 2023 total, which has now reached 55.Meanwhile, in East Africa, Somalia reported three cases, which bring its 2023 total to eight. The latest patients are from Bay and Galgadud.In related news, Indonesia's international development agency has donated 10 million doses of polio vaccine to Afghanistan, one of the few countries where wild poliovirus type 1 is still detected. The doses were made by Bio Farma, based in Indonesia, and the amount is enough to vaccinate 3.3 million children younger than 3 years old, according to Bernama, Malaysia's government news agency. UNICEF will partner with Afghani officials to help transport and distribute the vaccine.

Heterosexual transmission found in DR Congo mpox outbreak -An outbreak in the DRC's South Kivu province has been under way since August 2023. The outbreak is centered in Kamituga, and scientists have identified a distinct clade 1 mpox strain, which may be a novel subgroup. An international research team published its findings this week in medRxiv, a preprint server hosting studies that are not yet peer-reviewed. So far, more than 200 mpox cases have been reported in the Kamituga area. The outbreak made headlines in in late 2023, because it was the first known clade 1 outbreak fueled by sexual transmission. Typically, clade 1 infections involve zoonotic spillovers with some human-to-human spread. Clade 1 infections are known to be more virulent and deadly, with case-fatality rates as high as 10%. For the study, researchers interviewed 51 of 164 patients who were admitted to Kamituga hospital September 2023 through January 2024. Of that group, 24 were professional sex workers. The most common symptoms were fever and oral and anogenital lesions. Two deaths were reported.Heterosexual partners were mainly affected, suggesting that heterosexual contact may be the main form of transmission. The investigators wrote that professional sex workers –primarily young women–were the dominant occupational group, suggesting that they and their clients may be at higher risk for contracting mpox.So far, there's no sign that clade 1 is spreading outside of central Africa, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said in a December risk assessment.

Reports show sexually transmitted infections surging in Europe --New data released today by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) show a surge in sexually transmitted infections (STIs) across the continent.The latest annual epidemiologic reports from the ECDC show gonorrhea cases in European Union/European Economic Area EU/EEA countries rose by 48%, syphilis cases by 34%, and chlamydia cases by 16% compared with the previous year. New record high notification rates were reported for chlamydia and gonorrhea. For all three STIs, national notifications varied considerably across EU/EEA countries. Cases of lymphogranuloma venereum and congenital syphilis, which are caused by transmission of the infection from the mother to the fetus, also rose in 2022.ECDC officials say the increase in STIs, which mirrors trends seen in the United States and other countries, requires "urgent attention and concerted efforts.""Testing, treatment, and prevention lie at the heart of any long-term strategy," ECDC Director Andrea Ammon, MD, MPH, said in a news release. "We must prioritise sexual health education, expand access to testing and treatment services, and combat the stigma associated with STIs."Ammon went on to say that education and awareness initiatives, promoting consistent condom use, and fostering open dialogue about STIs can help reduce transmission rates.The ECDC also noted that gonorrhea, chlamydia, and syphilis can lead to serious health complications—such as pelvic inflammatory disease, chronic pain, and infertility—if they are left untreated. The agency urged people who suspect they may have contracted an STI to immediately seek medical advice to prevent complications and further transmission.

Oropouche virus cases rise in parts of Brazil, Peru - Brazil and Peru continue to report more infections involving Oropouche virus, which is spread by biting midges and certain types of mosquitoes, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said yesterday in anupdate. PAHO issued an initial alert about the disease in early February following a rise in cases, mainly in Amazonas state in Brazil. Oropouche virus, part of the orthobunyavirus family, causes symptoms similar to dengue. Symptoms can linger for weeks, and some patients experience aseptic meningitis. There are no specific vaccines or treatments for the disease. Since the first of the year, Brazilian labs have detected the virus in 2,104 samples, main from people in Amazonas state, where the disease is endemic. Cases have also been reported from Rhondonia, Acre, and Romarina states. All four states are in Brazil's northwestern region. Peru has reported 146 cases so far this year, the most since it recorded its first cases in 2016. The recent infections were reported in Loreto, Ucayali, and Madre de Dios departments, all in the east, bordering affected areas in Brazil.

Ground cinnamon sold at discount stores is tainted with lead, FDA warns Ground cinnamon sold by U.S. discount retailers is contaminated with high levels of lead and should be discarded, federal health officials said Wednesday. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said cinnamon sold by stores including the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar contains lead at levels that could be unsafe for people, particularly children, with prolonged exposure to the spice. The agency urged suppliers to recall the products voluntarily.Cinnamon products included in the agency’s safety alert include the La Fiesta brand sold by La Superior and SuperMercados; Marcum brand sold by Save A Lot stores; MK brands sold by SF Supermarket; Swad brand sold by Patel Brothers; El Chilar brand sold by La Joya Morelense; and Supreme Tradition brand sold by Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores.“Removing the ground cinnamon products in this alert from the market will prevent them from contributing elevated amounts of lead to the diets of children,” the alert said.Consumers should not buy the products and should throw away any containers they have at home, the agency said.Dollar Tree and Family Dollar stores have removed the cinnamon from their store shelves, a company spokesperson said. Customers can return products to nearby stores for a refund.FDA officials launched what they called a “targeted survey” of cinnamon products sold in discount stores after an October 2023 recall of lead-tainted cinnamon applesauce pouches that sickened nearly 500 U.S. children.The ground cinnamon products in Wednesday’s notice had lead levels of 2.03 to 3.4 parts per million, far lower than the puree pouches, which contained 2,270 parts per million to 5,110 parts per million of lead. There is no safe level of lead exposure for humans. Long-term exposure of lead can cause problems, especially in growing children, including learning disabilities, behavioral difficulties and lower IQ. The FDA monitors foods for lead levels, but the U.S. government doesn’t broadly limit lead in food products. The agency sent a letter to all cinnamon manufacturers, processors, distributors and facility operators in the U.S. reminding them they’re required to prevent contamination from chemical hazards in food, including spices.

Chemicals In Cosmetics, Toys, And Food Containers Contribute To Rise In Preterm Births Plastics are omnipresent. Few could argue that life is not incomparably more convenient because of them. But at what cost has our reliance on such convenience and ease come? Phthalates, a class of synthetic chemicals often referred to as “plasticizers” because of their common use in making plastic products flexible and bendable, are found in thousands of consumer products, from vinyl flooring to household cleaners and children’s toys. For most of us, our primary exposure to phthalates likely comes through plastic food containers and personal care products such as shampoos and cosmetics. Research indicates that we shouldn’t take the safety of these everyday products for granted. Phthalate exposure has been linked to a number of adverse health outcomes, including an increased risk of preterm birth, and researchers are urging greater awareness and avoidance of phthalate-containing products. Phthalates were already under suspicion due to a number of studies that highlighted the role that these chemicals may play in shortening gestational age. Recently The Lancet published a prospective analysis estimating the lifetime cost of prenatal exposure to phthalates in health outcomes, economic productivity, and monetary expenditures. The results are startling. The study authors reported that, in 2018, an estimated 56,595 preterm births could be attributed to prenatal phthalate exposure, at a staggering cost:“The lifetime costs of preterm birth, inclusive of direct medical care, intellectual quotient loss, and other indirect consequences, was estimated to be US$64,815 per case in 2016 ... Other chronic conditions due to phthalates include childhood obesity, adult obesity and diabetes, endometriosis, male factor infertility, and cardiovascular mortality, with total costs nearly $100 billion annually.”Infants and young children are particularly vulnerable to the harmful effects of phthalate exposure on their developing brains. Project TENDR, an alliance of scientists, health professionals, and advocates working together to protect children from the brain-damaging effects of exposure to toxic chemicals, explains that prenatal exposure to phthalates can affect neurological development in infants and children, resulting in effects that “include Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)-like behaviors, problems with conduct and aggression, as well depression and other internalizing behaviors.”They also note that “prenatal exposure has been associated with deficits in child IQ, working memory and executive functioning, as well as with problems in emotional regulation.” Multiple studies have found levels of phthalate exposure to be consistently higher among black and Latino populations in the United States than among other racial groups.Although children are particularly vulnerable, the effects of ongoing phthalate exposure extend to adults as well, being linked to increased risk of obesity, diabetes, endometriosis, birth defects in the male reproductive system, cardiovascular disease, and thyroid irregularities.It is impossible to live in contemporary society and completely eliminate phthalate exposure. Researchers estimate that the number of Americans with detectable levels of phthalates in their bodies is very close to 100 percent. We can’t eliminate phthalate exposure, but we can reduce it by being more mindful of the food we eat and the products we use.While phthalate-containing products are all around us, the greatest risk comes from those we eat, absorb through the skin, or inhale. Food items that are prepared or stored in plastic containers, along with the use of personal care products, are the main sources of phthalate exposure for most people. Also, women are generally more exposed than men because of their tendency to use a wider variety of personal care products. Nail polish, hairspray, cleansers, after-shave lotions, and shampoos all commonly contain phthalates.

Boiling Hard Tap Water Removes Up To 90% Of Microplastics: Study --A new research letter published in Environmental Science & Technology Letters indicates that boiling tap water for just five minutes could reduce the amount of microplastics by up to 90 percent. Researchers from Guangzhou Medical University and the Center for Environmental Microplastics Studies in China recommend boiling water in nonplastic electric kettles on gas stoves to remove impurities such as polystyrene, polyethylene, and polypropylene. According to the researchers, boiling water has been used since ancient times as a purification method in some Asian countries. “This simple boiling-water strategy can ‘decontaminate’ [nano- and microplastics] from household tap water and has the potential for harmlessly alleviating human intake of [nano- and microplastics] through water consumption,” they wrote. Water of a certain alkalinity and hardness typically produces incrustants—insoluble mineral remnants like calcium carbonate—upon boiling. For the study, the researchers hypothesized that calcium carbonate encounters nanoplastics as it crystallizes in hot water. The calcium carbonate then encapsulates the nanoplastics as it becomes the flaky crust you sometimes see at the bottom of your tea kettle. The study showed that boiling hard tap water containing 300 milligrams per liter (mg/L-1) of calcium carbonate reduced nano- and microplastics by nearly 90 percent, while water containing 80 mg/L-1 reduced particles by 84 percent. In soft water samples containing less than 60 mg/L-1 of calcium carbonate, boiling still reduced plastics by over 25 percent. Because of our heavy reliance on plastic, nanoplastics and microplastics are common in groundwater and surface water around the globe. Microplastics are truly everywhere, having been detected as far south as Antarctica and north as the Arctic. As plastic disintegrates, microscopic pieces are released into the environment. Microplastics are typically less than 5 millimeters in size but can break down into even smaller pieces called nanoplastics. Nanoplastics are nearly impossible to see at 1 micrometer in size. The micro and nano pieces have been found in water, air, soil, food, and table salt, according to some studies. The health effects of nano- and microplastics haven’t been fully realized. Still, research has suggested that their accumulation in the human body can cause insulin resistance, liver metabolic disorder, DNA damage, organ dysfunction, immune response issues, neurotoxicity, and reproductive harm. “Drinking boiled water apparently is a viable long-term strategy for reducing global exposure to [nano- and microplastics],” the research team wrote, adding that it is likely more effective than drinking bottled water, especially bottled in plastic. The average liter-sized bottle of water contains 240,000 pieces of nanoplastic, which is 10 to 100 times more particles than previously thought.

Hundreds of Thousands of Salmon Die After Release in Northern California's Klamath River - Hundreds of thousands of juvenile Chinook salmon are presumed dead after being released into Northern California’s Klamath River last week, where the largest dam demolition project in United States history is underway. The cause of death? Gas bubble disease, a fatal condition that results from severe pressure changes.The incident occurred on February 26 in northern California, not far from the border with Oregon, according to a statement from the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW). On that day, wildlife officials released 830,000 fall-run Chinook salmon fry into Fall Creek, a tributary of the Klamath River. The juvenile fish had hatched at Fall Creek Fish Hatchery, CDFW’s new, $35 million facility that was approved last spring. It was the first release of juvenile fish from the new venue.The fish were deposited into the creek above Iron Gate Dam, a hydroelectric dam that opened on the Klamath River in 1964 and is slated for removal later this year. As they made their way downstream, the salmon fry had to pass through an old tunnel that is also set to be removed—and this is where wildlife officials think they experienced the fatal change in pressure.The catastrophe is “another sad reminder of how the Klamath River dams have harmed salmon runs for generations,” according to a CDFW statement.Wildlife officials haven’t said exactly how many of the young fish died, only that the group “experienced a large mortality” based on downstream monitoring data.“It was discouraging and sad to learn of this issue,” Jordan Traverso, a spokesperson for the CDFW, tells SFGATE’s Amanda Bartlett. “Our staff invest so much of their time and care into these fish; it is really tragic to have something like this happen.”

500 gallons of cooking oil spill in Gaston County — Cleanup was underway after an early-morning oil spill, Gaston County Emergency Management and Fire Services said on Monday. Authorities said the 500-gallon spill started near the Lincoln County-Gaston County line and affected several Gaston roads. Reportedly, the oil traveled down Hardin Road onto U.S. 321 for several miles. The substance congealed into a lard-like substance and pooled near U.S. 321 and North Chester Street in Gastonia. Emergency personnel and cleanup companies started work on the scene around 3:30 a.m., covering affected intersections with sand. “This type of cleanup isn’t like a diesel fuel where it will eventually evaporate,” Gaston County Emergency Management and Fire Services Director Scott Hunter Sr. said. “We’re asking residents using this road to be aware that the road will be slick and any rapid acceleration or deceleration may result in a vehicle fishtailing.” North Gaston Fire, Dallas Fire, Gastonia Fire, N.C. Department of Transportation, and Gaston County PD were among the departments that responded to the incident. No timetable was given for the cleanup.

Amid Debate Over Rail Safety Concerns, Another Norfolk Southern Train Derails - With a Norfolk Southern derailment in Pennsylvania on Saturday that sent diesel fuel into a Lehigh Valley River, the already heated battle over control of the railroad with safety issues as a backdrop got even hotter. The derailment came after two days of charges, countercharges and missives flying back and forth over the safety records of both Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific, with leading government officials that regulate the rails leveling separate heavy criticism at the two companies. And while it hasn’t yet provoked any government response, the issue of safety and levels of employment could also be triggered by Friday’s news that BNSF had implemented a significant number of furloughs. In the proxy battle roiling Norfolk Southern, the activist investor group Ancora is recommending the replacement of eight new directors to the Norfolk Southern board. It also wants to replace CEO Alan Shaw with former UPS executive Jim Barber and name Jamie Boychuk, a former executive at CSX, to replace current COO Paul Duncan. That fight now has the Pennsylvania derailment as part of the battle, and Ancora wasted no time Saturday coming out with a statement over the incident. “Our proposed slate and management team are unanimous in their view that Norfolk Southern must become a safer and more reliable railroad before it can ever reach its full potential,” Ancora said in the statement. “Following this latest derailment, we call for the immediate termination of CEO Alan Shaw and stand ready to engage with the Company about an orderly reconstitution of the Board and a transition to capable management with a track record of actually delivering on safety commitments.” The statement went on to say that “an incident like this, which is drawing national news coverage and resulting in more embarrassment for the railroad, should put an end to the Board’s unsustainable efforts to save a tainted CEO with no long-term future.3 How can anyone defend this?”According to news reports, the derailment took place in Lower Saucon Township, which is near the Allentown-Bethlehem area. There were no reports of injuries, although diesel fuel being carried in a tank car did spill, there were no reports of contamination or evacuations. Plastic pellets also spilled, according to the news reports. In a statement provided to FreightWaves on Sunday, a spokesperson said: “Norfolk Southern crews and contractors remain at the derailment site. Members of the NTSB have arrived and are investigating. Once they have completed their investigation of the scene, we will continue with site cleanup and begin work to restore the track. The area where the locomotives were in the water will remain contained with booms until any residual sheen has been removed.”Saturday’s derailment comes after two days of back-and-forth over two of the U.S.-based Class 1 railroads that left heads spinning. The scorecard for the criticism and the responses went like this:— Martin Oberman, chairman of the Surface Transportation Board, ripped into Ancora Associates for its proxy battle over Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) railroad. Oberman spoke to the Southeast Association of Rail Shippers 2024 Spring Meeting in Atlanta on Thursday, where he said Ancora “has nothing to say about what it could do better” than current management in running Norfolk Southern, adding, “I think we can assume that if Ancora succeeds in its bid to control NS, its next move will be to put the Brooklyn Bridge on the market.”Ancora didn’t have any public response to Oberman’s comments, but on Friday, it sent a letter to the Norfolk Southern board, just a few days after the railroad released its 2024 proxy statement. The proxy revealed that in 2023 — the year when Norfolk Southern labored under the fallout from the derailment in East Palestine, Ohio — NS CEO Alan Shaw had total compensation of $13.41 million, compared to $9.78 million a year before.— The second blast from a government official aimed at a railroad came from Amit Bose, the administrator of the Federal Railroad Administration. In a letter addressed to UP CEO Jim Vena,Bose criticized recent furloughs implemented at Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP). “It is imperative that UP prioritizes safety above all else and takes immediate steps to address this issue, an issue disproportionately affecting UP workers since your railroad continues to furlough employees at a rate, based on available data, far outpacing that of any of your Class I peers.” Bose wrote.Union Pacific quickly responded to Bose’s comments with a letter from Vena, which said the FRA head was portraying an “inaccurate correlation between natural workforce fluctuations and safety.”

Three Norfolk Southern trains collide and derail near Philadelphia, as CEO receives huge pay raise -- Three Norfolk Southern trains collided and derailed Saturday morning along the Lehigh River in Eastern Pennsylvania, spilling diesel fuel and plastic pellets into the river. The accident occurred when an eastbound Norfolk Southern train collided with a parked train on the same track. A third train, traveling westbound on a parallel track, then plowed into the wreckage. The accident occurred in Lower Saucon Township county near the Pennsylvania-New Jersey State border. Lower Saucon is about 45 miles north of downtown Philadelphia. Photos posted by the Nancy Run Fire Company show dozens of railcars scattered along the tracks and the banks of the river. Clearly seen in the photos are at least two tanker cars, one of which appears to be partially overturned. Derailed cars after a collision involving three Norfolk Southern trains near Philadelphia. Two derailed chemical cars are visible in the foreground. [Photo: Nancy Run Fire Company] Other photos show two locomotives off the tracks, with at least one partially submerged in the river. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) is investigating the accident and expects to have a preliminary report in about a month. NTSB spokesperson Sarah Taylor Sulick said in a statement, “Preliminary information indicates that an eastbound NS train struck a stopped NS train on the same track.” She continued, “The wreckage from the striking train spilled onto an adjacent track and was struck by a westbound NS train. The collision led to the derailment of an unknown number of cars.” Gary Weiland, who lives across the river in Bethlehem Township, told the Allentown Morning Call he initially heard what sounded like a crash, then a period of quiet followed by the sound of another crash. “As the second one was happening, I went upstairs and looked out the window and saw a splash. I said to my wife, ‘I think a train derailed,’” he said. View of derailed locomotives and rail cars from across the Lehigh River [Photo: Nancy Run Fire Company] The collision is the latest in an unending series of rail accidents in the United States, which averages around three derailments per day. It also comes a little more than a year after the disastrous derailment of a Norfolk Southern train in East Palestine, Ohio. Thirty-eight rail cars, including 11 carrying toxic chemicals, derailed poisoning the small town of 5,000 people and the surrounding communities.

Massive blizzard strikes California and Nevada with wind gusts up to 305 km/h (190 mph) - (6 large YouTube videos) A significant winter storm continues to impact much of the West on Sunday, March 3, 2024, with heavy mountain snow and widespread damaging winds, including dangerous, blizzard conditions in the Sierra Nevada. A severe blizzard has been affecting parts of California and Nevada since Thursday, February 29, closing key roads, halting ski operations, leaving thousands without power, and creating ‘high to extreme’ avalanche danger in the Sierra Nevada region. On Saturday, March 2, NWS meteorologist William Churchill described the storm as an ‘extreme blizzard for the Sierra Nevada, in particular, as well as other portions of Nevada and even extending into Utah and portions of western Colorado.’ YouTube video YouTube video YouTube video YouTube video In Nevada, more than 33 000 customers experienced power outages, alongside nearly 24 000 in California. Early Sunday morning, March 3, a total of 12 184 customers in California were without power and 6 386 in Nevada. The storm has forced the closure of major transport routes and ski resorts, impacting tens of thousands of residents across the western United States. At Lake Tahoe’s Palisades ski resort, known as the largest in the area and the 1960 Winter Olympics venue, wind gusts surpassed 240 km/h (150 mph), with a peak gust reaching 305 km/h (190 mph) on the evening of Friday at the Siberia summit, situated at 2 652 m (8 700 feet). The Interstate 80 highway, a critical 121 km (75 mile) stretch, was closed due to hazardous conditions, complicating rescue and recovery efforts. The California Highway Patrol Office in Truckee, a key location near the Nevada border, reported significant challenges for emergency personnel and tow trucks. The storm also produced a tornado that damaged an elementary school in Madera County, California, on Friday afternoon, March 1. The mountainous areas near Lake Tahoe were particularly affected, with forecasts predicting snowfall reaching up to 3.6 m (12 feet) at higher elevations. This situation raises “life-threatening concerns” for those in the vicinity, as per the U.S. National Weather Service. Several ski resorts in the Lake Tahoe area have been closed, with reopening plans contingent on weather improvements. Yosemite National Park also announced closures, urging visitors to evacuate, with the reopening schedule dependent on the storm’s progression. Authorities and weather forecasters have advised residents and visitors to avoid unnecessary travel, warning of potential delays in rescue operations for those stranded by the blizzard.

California sees nearly 11 feet of snow, with another foot or so expected -California’s ski resorts were hit by a massive blizzard this weekend, with some mountain towns seeing more than 10 feet of snow, according to the total snowfall data released Monday.Sugar Bowl measured 126 inches of snow, topping the list, followed by Soda Springs CalTrans’s 116 inches of snow and Kingvale CalTrans’s 106 inches.Other spots that saw between 5 and 8 feet of snow include Palisades Tahoe’s 93 inches, Dodge Ridge’s 89 inches, Sierra Snow Lab’s 75.2 inches, Boreal’s 74 inches and Eagles Lakes CalTrans’s 66 inches.Ski resorts had to shut down lifts Monday morning and warned guests to expect further delaysas they continued digging themselves out of the snow.As the winter weather began to ease, forecasters warned of another storm that will bring heavy snow to northern California and southern Oregon as it moves southward Tuesday and Wednesday.Winter weather warnings are in effect, and the National Weather Service (NWS) predicts about 1 to 2 feet of additional snow.While the second storm will not be as powerful as the one this past weekend, it will make recovery from the blizzard even more difficult.“While these totals will be much less than the previous more long lasting storm, travel will remain difficult and the additional heavy snows will exacerbate recovery from the first storm,” the NWS said.“The good news for this area of the country is that after the next round of heavy snows, more tranquil weather is expected for the remainder of the week,” the NWS continued.

These Are The Top Snow Totals From The Sierra Blizzard - - The snowstorm that pummeled California's Sierra Nevada was a crushing blow, even for an area accustomed to huge snowfall totals. Here are the five largest snow totals confirmed by the National Weather Service so far:

• -126 inches (10.5 feet): Sugar Bowl Summit
• -116 inches (9.7 feet): Soda Springs, California
• -106 inches (8.8 feet): Kingvale, California
• -89 inches (7.4 feet): Near Pinecrest, California
• -87 inches (7.25 feet): Near Donner Peak, California

Biden administration backs short-term Colorado River water savings plan --The Biden administration announced its support on Tuesday for a consensus-based, short-term proposal that will promote significant water conservation efforts across the Colorado River basin. The plan, which involves at least 3 million acre-feet of system-wide usage reductions, serves to tide the region over until current operational guidelines expire at the end of 2026, according to the Department of the Interior. The administration said it will be harnessing up to $670.2 million in Inflation Reduction Act funds to support more than 1.58 million acre-feet of that total 3 million acre-feet of water conservation.“President Biden made a promise to the American people to invest in communities, bolster climate resiliency, and protect our nation’s natural and cultural resources,” Acting Deputy Secretary Laura Daniel-Davis said in a statement on Tuesday.“Our collective efforts to protect the stability of the Colorado River System reflect significant efforts to uphold that promise,” she added.These considerable cutbacks — proposed by the Colorado River’s seven basin states in May 2023 — were selected by the Interior Department’s Bureau of Reclamation as the “preferred alternative” in a final Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS) released on Tuesday.The May 2023 submission, drafted by the Lower Basin states of California, Arizona and Nevada, was the result of a year of heated disputes over temporary water usage reductions.All seven states — also including the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico — began negotiating reductions after Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton asked in June 2022 that they find a way to cut annual consumption by 2 to 4 million acre-feet.For reference, each basin is allocated 7.5 million acre-feet of water, for a total of 15 million acre-feet, while Mexico also receives 1.5 million acre-feet. A typical U.S. suburban household uses about one acre-foot of water annually.Such reductions would serve to bolster the dwindling Lake Mead and Lake Powell reservoirs, until new long-term guidelines are in place. Renegotiations of those rules, created in 2007 and expiring at the end of 2026, are currently underway.

Firefighters face difficult weather conditions as they battle the largest wildfire in Texas history (AP) — Firefighters in Texas faced rising temperatures, whipped-up winds and dry air Saturday in their battle to keep the largest wildfire in state history from turning more of the Panhandle into a parched wasteland. Firefighters were focused on containing the fire along its northern and eastern perimeter, where aggressive gusts from the southwest threatened to spread the flames and consume more acreage, according to Jason Nedlo, a spokesperson with the team of firefighters battling the Smokehouse Creek Fire that began Monday and has claimed at least two lives. “The main goal is to continue using dozers and fire engines to contain and patrol the fire,” Nedlo said. “We’re also focused on not losing any more structures, no more loss of life.” The massive fire has left a charred landscape of scorched prairie, dead cattle and destroyed as many as 500 structures, including burned-out homes, in the Texas Panhandle. It has merged with another fire and crossed the state line into Oklahoma, burning more than 1,700 square miles (4,400 square kilometers) and was 15% contained, the Texas A&M Forest Service said Saturday.The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for the entire Panhandle through midnight Sunday after rain and snow on Thursday allowed firefighters to contain a portion of the fire. Signs warning travelers of the critical fire danger are in place along Interstate 40 leading into Amarillo. Winds gusts of up to 45 miles per hour (72 kilometers per hour) are expected Saturday with humidity below 10% and a high temperature of 75 degrees F (24 degrees C). “New fires could also potentially start ... the relative humidities are very low, the wind gusts are high and so it doesn’t take much, all there needs to be is a spark” to ignite another fire, said meteorologist William Churchill with the National Weather Prediction Center. Nedlo said because of the ongoing weather conditions, it is not possible yet to predict when the flames will be fully contained and brought under control. “We’ll know more after the weekend ... we’re just not willing to speculate,” Nedlo said. The cause of the fire remains under investigation, although strong winds, dry grass and unseasonably warm weather fed the flames.

Texas wildfires latest: Firefighter killed responding to Panhandle blazes that continue to burn 1.3 million acres There’s still no end in sight for Smokehouse Creek fire which is now five times the size of New York City Texas fire officials are still struggling to control the several fires wrecking havoc across the state. Strong winds and dry conditions this past weekend exacerbated flames, including the Smokehouse Creek Fire in northern Texas which remains only 37 per cent contained, according to the forest service. The fires began late last month. That fire has burned more than 1.3 million acres across the Texas Panhandle and destroyed 500 structures, Texas authorities confirmed. Cool weather on Monday and several additional firefighters helped keep the blazes in check. On Tuesday, officials announced a significant uptick in containment levels with two fires now completely contained. The monster wildfire is the largest in state history. It’s suspected that it’s destroyed 500 structures and killed hundreds of cattle, forcing evacuations. The fires have also killed at least two civilians. On Tuesday, it was announced that a fire chief died while fighting a structure fire. One woman believes she knows the cause of the fires, according to CNN. In a lawsuit filed last week, Melanie McQuiddy blamed an electric company, Xcel Energy, and its inspection contractor, Southwestern Public Service Company, for not properly maintaining a pole that she says fell and started the blaze. The Smokehouse Creek fire has expanded to include 1.3m miles, roughly the size of Connecticut. “To see a chief, a first responder, working to battle back against flames and losing his life in the line of duty is something that we never want to see,” Mr Abbott said of Fritch Volunteer Fire Department Chief Zeb Smith, who died of a heart attack while fighting a fire on Tuesday morning. While speaking at a news conference on Tuesday, the Republican governor pleaded with neighbouring states and communities to send hay and fencing materials. He said that there have been many donations since the fire began but the amount of hay already delivered is not sustainable. “The hay that has been delivered has already been used, for the most part. And the reality is for not just days, but for months, there’s going to be far more hay that is needed”, he said at a Tuesday news conference. Officials in Texas are warning that fire weather could continue on Thursday and Friday. Texas Division of Emergency Management Chief Nim Kidd asked residents near fires to remain vigilant to ensure no new fires start in the oncoming days at a news conference on Tuesday. Hemphill County, which is home to the city of Canadian, has been 70 per cent burned, Governor Greg Abbott said at a news conference on Tuesday. Additionally, 47 families have been displaced and given emergency shelter through the American Red Cross and similar organisations. Fritch Volunteer Fire Department Chief Zeb Smith died from a heart attack while fighting a structure fire on Tuesday. The department has been fighting the ongoing wildfires in Texas, including the Windy Deuce Fire. “During the response, Chief Smith faced unforeseen challenges and, despite emergency medical assistance and quick transportation to Golden Plains Community Hospital, tragically succumbed to his injuries,” the city of Borger said in a news release. “Chief Zeb Smith served the Fritch and Hutchinson County community with selflessness and dedication. His exemplary leadership was evident in his tireless efforts over the past week, where he worked diligently to protect and safeguard his community and fellow citizens”.

After Wildfires Killed Thousands of Cows, Texas Ranchers Count Their Lost -- A few days after the largest wildfire in Texas history had torn through Hemphill County, the locals in Canadian—the charming Panhandle town a hundred miles northeast of Amarillo—all seemed to understand something that outsiders like myself could not: no matter how many journalistic overtures were made, no matter how many pleasantries included, area ranchers, among the hardest hit by the fires, were not going to talk about their ordeal—at least not yet, anyway. Initially, this recurring message seemed hard to believe. During most instances of calamity, be it violent crime or natural disaster, some victims are almost always willing to share their experiences. What could be so different, I wondered, about Texans in the wake of the Smokehouse Creek fire? Instead of seeking to ask ranchers questions, a county official told me, I should simply drive down some of the remote county roads between Canadian and the Oklahoma border. “I guarantee you’re going to see something,” he added, ominously. With the help of a map, I started out my journey along Texas Highway 33, a two-lane road that begins a few miles south of town and ends on the other side of the Oklahoma state line. Here, among the vast, rolling prairie east of town, where the horizon disappeared into a haze of gray smoke, it looked like the earth’s outer layer had been peeled back with a giant blade. Where just a week ago, hundred-year-old live oaks dotted dense grassland, an eerie moonscape—naked, desertlike, and sepia-toned—had quickly taken its place. In this apocalyptic-looking expanse, where the air reeked of burnt manure, the landscape was still being transformed 72 hours after area fires were extinguished. Amid the charred trees, melted fence posts, and windblown dust that blocked out the sunlight, the most obvious signs of life were no longer living. The first: a soot-stained badger that had curled into a ball and died, fully intact, beside the road. Several hundred yards east, dead cows began to appear like black boulders in the middle of empty fields. In some areas, ranchers had begun lining them up in rows for burial in large, earthen pits carved from the soil using backhoes. In one field, multiple rows of dead cattle stretched more than a hundred yards—a giant assembly line of rotting flesh with too many victims to count. Inspecting the cow carcasses revealed clues about the animals’ demise. Some cattle spent their last moments crowded together, seeking safety in numbers. Others defied herd instinct, fleeing on their own as a sky-high tsunami of black smoke and fire closed in at highway speeds. The lucky ones survived by finding small islands of refuge amid the sea of flames—a dirt-covered hill here, a water-logged pasture there. The unlucky ones found themselves encircled by darkness, with nowhere to run. Ranchers would eventually discover thousands of them keeled over in distant fields or trapped by iron fences and cattle guards, many just a few feet from salvation, like an act of divine cruelty. Suddenly, local ranchers’ inability to open up about the loss of so much life began to make sense. “It will be a little while before I can discuss it,” one rancher told me via text a day later. “We are still picking up the pieces.” Another, reached by phone, apologized when asked to comment on his family’s sizable loss. “I just can’t right now,” he said. “It’s too much.”

Power lines ignited the largest wildfire in Texas history and one nearby, officials say - Power lines ignited massive wildfires across the Texas Panhandle that killed at least two people, destroyed homes and livestock, and left a charred landscape, officials said Thursday, including the largest blaze in state history.The Texas A&M Forest Service said its investigators concluded that power lines ignited both the historic Smokehouse Creek fire, which has burned nearly 1,700 square miles (4,400 square kilometers) and spilled into neighboring Oklahoma, and the nearby Windy Deuce fire, which has burned about 225 square miles (582 square kilometers). The statement did not elaborate on what led to the power lines igniting the blazes.Utility provider Xcel Energy said its equipment appeared to have sparked the Smokehouse Creek fire. The Minnesota-based company said in the news release that it did not believe its equipment caused the ignition of the Windy Deuce fire, nor was it aware of any allegations that it had. A company spokesman said in an email that there are power lines owned and operated by various companies in that area.The wildfires that ignited last week in the windswept rural area prompted evacuations in a handful of small communities, destroyed as many as 500 structures and killed thousands of cattle. When the blazes began on Feb. 26, winds in the area were reaching upwards of 60 miles per hour (97 kilometers per hour). Those strong winds, along with dry grass and temperatures reaching into the 70s and 80s fed the flames.

Raging wildfires scorch 40 000 ha (98 800 acres) of land in northwestern Thailand - Multiple wildfires have been burning across northwestern Thailand’s Mae Hong Son Province since March 1, 2024, scorching nearly 40 000 ha (98 800 acres) of land. According to local media reports, one firefighter has died of a heart attack while on foot patrol in the Bo Klua district of Nan, while two others are suffering from heat stroke and cerebral hemorrhage. From March 1 to 3, a total of 1 153 hotspots have been recorded in the province, including 646 in Pai district. According to the JRC Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), the total burnt area over the last week across Mae Hong Son Province reached nearly 40 000 ha (98 800 acres). Atthaphon Charoenchansa, the director-general of the Department of National Parks, Wildlife and Plant Conservation, said that the department will make use of its emergency fund to hire villagers for a period of two and a half months, to help in fire-fighting efforts. Raging wildfires scorch 40 000 ha (98 800 acres) of land in northwestern Thailand march 5 2024 Image credit: JMA/Himawari-9, Zoom Earth, The Watchers. Acquired on March 5, 2024 The province is on the border with Myanmar where fires are also raging, compounding the challenges for firefighting and control efforts. These fires have not only put a significant strain on local resources but also raised concerns regarding air quality and health impacts in the region. Mae Hong Son Province, known for its mountainous terrain and dense forests, is particularly vulnerable to wildfires. The dry season, which typically runs from late November to April, creates conditions conducive to the spread of fire. The province’s geographical location, adjacent to Myanmar, adds complexity to the firefighting efforts as fires do not recognize political boundaries. Coordination between the two countries is crucial for effective fire management and control.

February 2024 Was the Hottest on Record | Earth.Org - With an average temperature of 13.54C, February 2024 was the hottest February ever recorded globally, breaking the previous record set in 2016 by 0.12C, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has announced.Daily global average temperature records were broken for four consecutive days last month, reaching 2C above the 1850-1900 levels.With temperatures at 1.77C above an estimate of the February average for 1850-1900, last month also marked the ninth consecutive time that recorded temperatures for a particular month have reached unprecedented levels. Most regions around the world, including northern Siberia, central and northwest North America, most of South America, Africa, and western Australia, saw above-average temperatures, though Europe bore the most brunt, with temperatures in February at 3.30C above the 1991-2020 average for that month, the European Union’s Earth Observation program said in a press release on Tuesday.Sea temperatures also remained at an “unusually high level,” continuing a long trend of “persistently and unusually high” sea temperatures since May of last year. Earlier this week, experts warned of a potential fourth mass coral bleaching event linked to marine heatwaves. Within the last century, sea temperatures have risen at an average rate of 0.13C every decade. Warmer waters make coral reefs more vulnerable to bleaching outside of summer seasons while impeding their ability to naturally recover. 2023 was the hottest year on record, supercharged by the return of the El Niño, a weather phenomenon that has pushed temperatures off the charts around the world and that is expected to last well into 2024. Last month, Copernicus confirmed that the critical 1.5C global warming threshold set in the Paris Agreement was breached over a twelve-month period for the first time in history, with global temperatures at 1.52C above the 19th century benchmark. While this does not signal a permanent breach of the limit, which scientists say is measured over decades, it sends a clear warning to humanity that we are approaching the point of no return much faster than expected.According to the United Nations, the world is on track to warm well above 2C and we are running out of time to make the transformational changes required to cap global temperature rises.Commenting on the latest findings, Carlo Buentempo, Director of C3S, said February’s record-breaking temperatures were “not really surprising.”“The climate responds to the actual concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere so, unless we manage to stabilise those, we will inevitably face new global temperature records and their consequences,” Buentempo said.According to the latest analysis on global carbon dioxide (CO2) levels by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global CO2 emissions grew by 410 million tonnes – or 1.1% – in 2023, reaching a historic high of 37.4 billion tonnes. This was partly due to a global shortfall in hydroelectric power generation linked to historic droughts that have affected many regions of the world, which drove up emissions from fossil fuels by an additional 170 million tonnes. Without it, the agency said, global emissions would have likely declined last year.

Earth's Warmest February Is Ninth Straight Record Month, Preliminary Data Shows -- Earth had its warmest February on record, according to preliminary data, the latest month in a string of records following the planet's hottest year in 2023. Another month, another record: According to the ERA5 reanalysis dataset updated last weekend, the European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) found February's globally averaged temperature was about 1.46 degrees Fahrenheit above average. That may not sound like much, but it was about 0.2 degrees warmer than 2016, the previous February record in their dataset dating to 1940.Globally averaged temperature data is synthesized from measurements taken by weather stations, ships, aircraft and satellites. February was the ninth straight month Earth set a new warm record for that month, a streak that started in June 2023.That includes its two hottest months – July and August – as well as the planet's four most anomalously warm months – September, October, November and December – according to the ECMWF's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). All of those led to a record-shattering warm year in 2023.This graph shows global temperature departures from the 1991-2020 average (in degrees Celsius) for all years since 1940. Anomalies in 2023 are shown by the orange line, while 2024-to-date is shown by the red line. The planet's oceans were also record-warm for any February dating to the mid-19th century. It was the 11th month in a row in which the planet's oceans were record-warm for that month.Swaths of the eastern, tropical and southern Atlantic Ocean, western Pacific Ocean near Asia, and Indian Ocean were record-warm in February. University of Miami tropical scientist Brian McNoldy noted the North Atlantic Ocean was not only record-warm for February, but warmer than any other March.The strong but diminishing El Niño can also be seen at the end of the animation below as a tongue of warm water extending west from South America. According to Atmospheric G2 director of European meteorological operations Amy Hodgson, over a half-dozen countries in Europe had their record-warmest February in 2024. Among those were Austria, the Czech Republic, England, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Switzerland.Parts of the U.S. were also record-warm – not just in February, but also during Northern Hemisphere winter (December through February).Other areas notably warm in February included northwest Africa, southern Africa, western Australia and the Arctic. Among areas colder than usual were much of Russia, China and Mongolia. Unlike last year, 2024 began with a strong El Niño already established. While that is expected to vanish as usual by late spring or summer, it's expected to have lagging effects. The main effect of the current El Niño (on the planet's temperatures) will come in 2024," said Adam Scaife of the U.K. Met Office in a mid-January press release.Scaife also said 2024 has "strong potential to be another record-breaking year. The U.K. Met Office forecasts the planet's temperature to surpass the 2.7-degree Fahrenheit threshold of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, with the caveat that while topping that is certainly historic, the one-year spike doesn't necessarily mean the 2015 accord's threshold is breached permanently.NOAA calculated a 21.7% chance of a new record-warm year in 2024 in their January report, a notably high chance so early in the year. One year ago, their chance of 2023 setting that record was "less than 6.9%"

2023-24 El Nino among five strongest on record, will continue fuelling heat in 2024: WMO - The 2023-24 El Nino has peaked as one of the five strongest on record and will continue to impact global climate in the coming months despite a weakening trend, the World Meteorological Organisation said on Tuesday.The UN agency also said above-normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May.The prevailing El Nino conditions fuelled record temperatures and extreme events the world over, with 2023 being the warmest on record.According to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global mean temperature breached the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold for an entire year for the first time in January.A permanent breach of the 1.5-degree Celsius limit, specified in the Paris Agreement, however, refers to long-term warming over many years.In its latest update, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said there is about a 60% chance of El Nino persisting during March-May and an 80% likelihood of neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina) during April to June. There is a chance of La Nina developing later in the year but those odds are currently uncertain, it said.Scientists closely tracking the development in India have said La Nina conditions setting in by June-August could mean monsoon rains would be better this year than in 2023.El Nino -- a periodic warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean -- occurs every two to seven years on an average, and typically lasts nine to 12 months.It is associated with increased rainfall in the Horn of Africa and the southern US, and unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia and southern Africa."Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record -- and 2023 was, by far, the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit," said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo."Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Nino. But sea-surface temperatures in other parts of the globe have been persistently and unusually high for the past 10 months. The January 2024 sea-surface temperature was by far the highest on record for January. This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Nino alone," she said.

El Niño to bring above-normal temperatures between March and May - Peaking in December, this iteration of El Niño is among the five most powerful on record with the World Meteorological Organization forecasting "higher than normal temperatures" across "nearly all land areas between March and May." The El Niño weather phenomenon is gradually weakening but will continue to influence global climate in the coming months, fueling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities," the UN body said in a report published March 5. El Niño, a natural weather phenomenon characterized by the warming of a large swath of the tropical Pacific, occurs every two to seven years, lasting nine to 12 months. It alters global atmospheric circulation, heating distant areas, and is occurring within a climate altered by human activity, the WMO explained. "There's about a 60% chance that El Niño will persist between March and May and an 80% chance that neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) will be observed from April to June," the WMO reported. "Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record - and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record," said Celeste Saulo, the new WMO Secretary-General. "While El Niño contributed to these record temperatures, the principal culprit is unequivocally the greenhouse gases that trap heat," she said. "Ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly reflect El Niño. However, sea surface temperatures in other parts of the world have been persistently and unusually high over the past 10 months," said the Argentinian meteorologist, who took the helm of the organization in January. "January 2024 saw the highest sea surface temperature for January on record. This is alarming and cannot be explained solely by El Niño," she warned. The current El Niño episode that began in June 2023 reached its peak between November and January. It recorded a peak value of about 2.0°C above the average sea surface temperature for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean for the 1991 to 2020 period. The WMO suggests that La Niña – which, in contrast to El Niño, cools temperatures – could develop "later this year" after a neutral phase between April and June. However, the WMO considers the probabilities too uncertain for now.

At peak value of 2°C above average sea surface temperature, 2023-24 El Nino among strongest on record --The 2023-24 El Nino phenomenon, experienced globally, is one of the five strongest on record, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated on March 5, 2024. The El Nino peaked in December and is weakening gradually. However, it is likely to continue its impact on global climate in the coming months, thereby fuelling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities, the WMO said in a statement. “The current El Nino event, which developed in June 2023, was at its strongest between November and January. It displayed a peak value of about 2.0°C above the 1991 to 2020 average sea surface temperature for the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean. This made it one of the five strongest El Nino events ever, though it was weaker than the 1997-98 and 2015-16 events,” the statement added. The WMO predicted above normal temperatures across almost all land areas for three months, between March and May. It is likely to affect regional rainfall patterns. “Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record — and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. El Nino has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo was quoted as saying in the statement. Saulo added that ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific clearly indicated El Nino. But sea surface temperatures have been persistently and unusually high across other parts of the world over the past 10 months. The press statement observed that the January 2024 sea surface temperature was registered as the highest for January. “This is worrying and cannot be explained by El Nino alone,” Saulo noted. The statement predicted about 60 per cent chances of the phenomenon continuing during March-May. There are 80 per cent chances of neutral conditions that is neither El Nino nor La Nina in April-June. There is a chance of La Nina conditions developing later in the year, but scientists are yet to ascertain the facts. El Nino is the warmer phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon. It occurs on average every two to seven years and persists for about nine to 12 months. It is associated with warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting weather and storm patterns in various parts of the world. The seasonal climate pattern usually has higher influence on the global climate during the second year of its development — in this instance 2024. An El Nino usually causes increased rainfall and floods in the Horn of Africa and southern parts of the United States. It influences unusually dry and warm conditions in Southeast Asia, Australia and South Africa. Previous instances have been known to exacerbate drought conditions in northern South America and bring drier and warmer conditions in South Africa.

Record-Smashing Heat in the World’s Oceans, Explained: QuickTake - A surge in the temperature of the world’s oceans is continuing into 2024. What’s behind the unprecedented readings, and what do they mean for people, wildlife and the wider climate? 1. Just how high are these temperatures? Alarmingly high. Since early May of last year, the average global sea surface temperature — excluding waters around the poles — has been at record seasonal highs every day, in data that goes back to 1979. It hit a new record in February, surpassing August’s peak. It generally tops outin March, the end of summer in the Southern Hemisphere, which contains the ...

Experts Warn of Imminent Mass Coral Bleaching as Oceans Warm - As the global sea surface temperature set a new record high on Monday at 21.17C following months of above-average temperatures, scientists are raising the alarm about a potential fourth mass coral bleaching event.Speaking with Reuters, the coordinator of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch Derek Manzello said it was likely that the entire Southern Hemisphere would experience bleaching this year.“We are literally sitting on the cusp of the worst bleaching event in the history of the planet,” the ecologist said.The risk of a mass bleaching event was recently raised by US and Australian researchers in a paperpublished in the journal Science, which suggested that last year’s extreme marine heatwaves may be a precursor to a mass bleaching and coral mortality event across the Indo-Pacific in 2024-25. These important ecosystems exist in more than 100 countries and territories and support at least 25% of marine species; they are integral to sustaining Earth’s vast and interconnected web of marine biodiversity and provide ecosystem services valued up to $9.9 trillion annually. They are sometimes referred to as “rainforests of the sea” for their ability to act as carbon sinks by absorbing the excess carbon dioxide in the water. Unfortunately, coral reefs are disappearing at an alarming pace. According to the most recent report by the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network (GCRMN), analysis showed that the world has lost approximately 14% of corals since 2009. While coral bleaching can be a natural process that occurs due to rising oceans temperatures in the summer months or during natural weather phenomena such as El Niño, a quasi-periodic fluctuation in oceanographic and atmospheric conditions that brings in warm water, a rise in marine heatwaves linked to human activities has led to more frequent and larger bleaching events globally.One of the best examples of coral bleaching is the Great Barrier Reef, the world’s largest and longest reef system located off the coast of Queensland, Australia; it covers about 350,000 square kilometres – an area that is larger than the UK and Ireland combined. The stunning coral reef system has already suffered five mass bleaching events in 1998, 2002, 2016, 2017, and 2020. The events in 2016 and 2017 were so severe that they led to the death of 50% of the iconic reef.Aside from Australia, coral death has been particularly pronounced in regions such as South Asia, the Pacific, East Asia, the Western Indian Ocean, The Gulf, and Gulf of Oman.While a coral bleaching event does not automatically result in corals’ death, they increase these ecosystems’ vulnerability to marine disease and starvation, which could eventually lead to mortality. The longer corals are bleached under various stresses, the more difficult it will be for algae to return.Within the last century, sea temperatures have risen at an average rate of 0.13C every decade. Warmer waters make coral reefs more vulnerable to bleaching outside of summer seasons while impeding their ability to naturally recover. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), sea surface temperatures have been “persistently and unusually high” since May of last year. While this was partly due to the return of El Niño last year, heat-trapping greenhouse gases remain “unequivocally the main culprit,” as oceans absorb more than 90% of the extra heat in the planet’s climate system that results from human-made global warming.

Arctic sea could be ‘ice-free’ by the 2030s, new study warns --Researchers are warning that Arctic Ocean sea ice is melting at an even faster pace than previously thought — and the region could experience its first ice-free conditions sometime before the 2030s.According to a study published in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, the Arctic sea ice cover and the ice’s thickness have “declined conspicuously” since satellite observations began in 1978.For years, the melting of Arctic sea ice has been viewed as a measure of climate change effects.Predictions indicate that the earliest ice-free conditions in the Arctic Ocean could potentially occur sometime in the 2020s to the 2030s and are likely to happen before the 2050s, the study found.The sea ice in question is seasonal. It freezes each winter but melts in the summer. Each year, the amount of summertime sea ice has declined because of human-caused global warming.The researchers said that sea ice is typically at its lowest in September. Researchers predict that by 2035 to 2067 there will be consistent ice-free September conditions.The first ice-free summer year would happen when the Arctic has less than 386,000 square miles of ice, the Los Angeles Times noted.Alexandra Jahn, researcher for the University of Colorado Boulder, told the outlet that at this point it’s “no longer a remote possibility,” and an ice-free Arctic Ocean will happen under all emissions scenarios. The study’s scientists argue that there is an urgent need to better understand what the impacts of an ice-free Arctic are, including the effects on marine ecosystems, the global energy budget, wave height and coastal erosion.

Large, unexplained earth cracks appear in Libya, prompting government investigation - Large earth cracks appeared in Al-Sbeaa, just south of Libya’s capital, Tripoli over the past couple of days. With no preceding earthquakes or known faults, the Libyan government has launched a comprehensive investigation to determine the cause of the fissures. Unusually large and deep earth cracks have suddenly appeared in an agricultural region south of Tripoli, causing alarm among the local population. In response, the Libyan government has initiated an investigation and dispatched a specialized geological team from the Ministry of Local Governance to conduct thorough surveys of the affected areas, particularly focusing on agricultural lands. Parallelly, the Libyan Ministry of Environment and their Environmental Affairs Monitoring Department in “Al-Sbeea” are taking the lead in overseeing and documenting the ground cracks. This concerted effort aims to compile a detailed report, which will serve as a critical tool in understanding the origins, implications, and potential risks posed by the fissures. Experts are delving into various hypotheses regarding the cause of these ground cracks, emphasizing that without prior seismic activity, the phenomenon might be attributed to other geological factors, such as underground water flow changes or land subsidence. Dr. Yasmine El-Gerbi, a geologist specializing in seismic studies, said the absence of seismic events in the lead-up to these cracks suggests “we might be looking at a complex interplay of geological processes unique to this region.” Locals, particularly those whose livelihoods are intertwined with the land, express a mix of concern and urgency. “Our farms are our lifeblood,” stated Mohamed Al-Fasi, a local farmer, “and seeing the earth split open like this is deeply unsettling. We are eagerly awaiting the results of the government’s investigations to understand what this means for our future here.”

Large lava flows form in first eruption at Fernandina volcano since 2020 - Galapagos, Ecuador - A new eruption started at Ecuador’s Fernandina volcano in the Galapagos archipelago at 04:50 UTC on Sunday, March 3, 2024. IGEPN volcanologists said deformation data suggests this eruption will be larger than those observed in 2017, 2018 and 2020. A new eruption started at Fernandina volcano at 04:50 UTC on Sunday, March 3, 2024 (23:50 local time on March 2), with a new lava effusion observed emerging from a 3 – 5 km (1.8 – 3.1 miles) long fissure on the upper southeastern slope of the volcano, also known as La Cumbre. This event marks the volcano’s first eruptive activity since January 2020, which was rated at a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 0. The emerging lava flows have covered a distance of 5 – 6 km (3.1 – 3.7 miles) from the fissure within the first couple of hours. Satellite imagery acquired by GOES-16 and VIIRS, alongside near-polar satellites SUOMI-NPP and NOAA-20, captured over 1 000 thermal anomalies, indicating the significant scale of the eruption. Additionally, a gas-steam plume containing ash has been observed rising 2 – 3 km (1.2 – 1.8 miles) above the volcano’s summit, spreading in multiple directions. The Ecuadorian Geophysical Institute (IGEPN) said the island of Fernandina has no human settlements, and therefore there are no risks for people. Its ecological value is very high because its ecosystems host unique species such as terrestrial and marine iguanas, snakes, endemic rats, non-flying cormorants, and penguins, among others. The eruption follows increased seismicity detected in the latter half of 2023, culminating in 80 cm (31.5 inches) ground deformation. Ground deformation data suggests it is likely that the current eruption will be larger than those observed in 2017 (VEI 2), 2018 (VEI 1), and 2020 (VEI 0), IGEPN said. Eruptive scenarios suggest that, along with lava flows, forest fires and explosive interactions between lava and seawater can be expected. The prevailing wind direction should protect populated islands from gas and ash plumes, although shifts in wind could alter this. Fernandina, the most active volcano in the Galápagos and proximate to the Galápagos mantle plume, is a basaltic shield volcano characterized by its “overturned soup bowl” profile and a deep 5 x 6.5 km (3.1 – 4 miles) summit caldera. The caldera, elongated in a NW-SE direction, has experienced multiple collapse events. Eruptions, typically emanating from the caldera’s circumferential fissures, have shaped the volcano’s history, including the notable 1968 event that drastically altered the caldera’s landscape. With a record of 28 to 30 eruptions since 1800, Fernandina has the highest eruption recurrence rate in the Galapagos Islands. Update: 14:28 UTC, March 5 Effusive eruption at the volcano continues with several lava flows on the SSE slope of the volcano. The volcano is producing low gas and steam emissions with little to no ash content.

Study confirms no risk of asteroid Apophis being redirected toward Earth by other asteroids - A comprehensive study by astronomers from Western University calculated the paths of all known asteroids and found there is no risk of the notorious asteroid Apophis colliding with another space object and altering its course toward Earth, further dispelling fears of a potentially catastrophic impact in April 2029. Apophis is named for the demon serpent, who personified evil and chaos in ancient Egyptian mythology. The discovery of asteroid 99942 Apophis in 2004 sent ripples through the global community as initial observations indicated a probability of up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth in 2029. While subsequent research showed there is no chance of it impacting Earth within the next 100 years, there remained a small chance of collision with another asteroid that would alter its course and set it to impact Earth. However, recent research led by Western University’s Paul Wiegert, in collaboration with Benjamin Hyatt of the University of Waterloo, has ruled out that possibility. At the heart of their study is a detailed simulation encompassing all 1.3 million known asteroids, aimed at assessing the possibility of any impacting Apophis and altering its course. “We calculated the paths of all known asteroids using a detailed computer simulation of our Solar System and the possibility of such an unlikely event was evaluated,” said Wiegert, a physics and astronomy professor. “Fortunately, no such collisions are anticipated.” With an estimated width of 335 m (1 099 feet), Apophis has been a subject of intense scrutiny due to its close approaches to Earth, notably in 2029 and 2036. While previous assessments have assured its safe passage, with the nearest approach in 2029 bringing it within a mere 0.09 LD (37 399 km / 23 237 miles) of Earth, the study preemptively addresses any concerns about potential deflections in its orbit. The research, which is set to be published in the Planetary Science Journal, also highlights a particularly close encounter with the 1 300 m (4 265 foot) wide diameter asteroid 4544 Xanthus in December 2026. Despite the close pass, the researchers have conclusively ruled out a collision, though they advocate for continued monitoring of Apophis and other asteroids to refine our understanding of their trajectories.

Largest object ever jettisoned from ISS to make uncontrolled re-entry this week - The International Space Station’s (ISS) largest-ever discarded object, a hefty equipment pallet weighing 2.9 tons, is anticipated to make an uncontrolled descent back to Earth between March 8 and 9, 2024. Launched into space for a critical ISS power system upgrade, this pallet, loaded with nine old station batteries, will not fully disintegrate upon re-entry, with predictions indicating about half a ton of debris could survive the descent and impact the planet’s surface. The International Space Station’s most massive object ever released—a 2 633 kg (5 800 pounds) equipment pallet—is expected to make an uncontrolled re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere this week. According to official statements, the re-entry window is estimated between 12:30 UTC on March 8 and 08:30 UTC on March 9, 2024. Approximately 500 kg (1 100 pounds) of fragments are likely to impact the Earth’s surface. The pallet, dispatched into the void by the station’s robotic arm, Canadarm-2, on March 11, 2021, was initially brought to the ISS by Japan’s HTV9 cargo ship in May 2020. Its mission was to assist astronauts in swapping out the station’s older nickel-hydrogen batteries for new, more efficient lithium-ion ones. This equipment played a vital role in a series of operations that saw 48 old batteries replaced with 24 new ones across six years, involving four supply missions from the Japanese H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV) cargo spacecraft, 13 astronauts, and 14 spacewalks. “It was the largest object—mass-wise—ever jettisoned from the International Space Station,” NASA spokesperson Leah Cheshier said in March 2021. This jettison surpasses the previous record held by the Early Ammonia Servicing System tank released during the STS-118 mission in 2007. The decision to dispose of the pallet in an uncontrolled manner was not part of the original mission plan. It resulted from logistical challenges and a backlog in equipment disposal caused by the failed launch of a Soyuz rocket in 2018. This incident, which forced an emergency landing for NASA astronaut Nick Hague and Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexey Ovchinin, disrupted the schedule for spacewalks and subsequent equipment disposal. Typically, old batteries would be secured within an HTV and safely jettisoned to burn upon re-entry. However, due to the postponement of spacewalks and the phasing out of the old HTV design in favor of the new HTV-X cargo spacecraft, the pallet had to be discarded independently.

Fury after Exxon chief says public to blame for climate failures The world is off track to meet its climate goals and the public is to blame, Darren Woods, chief executive of oil giant ExxonMobil, has claimed – prompting a backlash from climate experts. As the world’s largest investor-owned oil company, Exxon is among the top contributors to global planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions. But in an interview, published on Tuesday, Woods argued that big oil is not primarily responsible for the climate crisis. The real issue, Woods said, is that the clean-energy transition may prove too expensive for consumers’ liking. “The dirty secret nobody talks about is how much all this is going to cost and who’s willing to pay for it,” he told Fortune last week. “The people who are generating those emissions need to be aware of and pay the price for generating those emissions. That is ultimately how you solve the problem.” Woods said the world was “not on the path” to cut its planet-heating emissions to net zero by 2050, which scientists say is imperative to avoid catastrophic impacts of global heating. “When are people going to willing to pay for carbon reduction?” said Woods, who has been Exxon’s chief executive since 2017. “We have opportunities to make fuels with lower carbon in it, but people aren’t willing to spend the money to do that.” Experts say Woods’s rhetoric is part of a larger attempt to skirt climate accountability. No new major oil and gas infrastructure can be built if the world is to avoid breaching agreed temperature limits but Exxon, along with other major oil companies currently basking in record profits, is pushing ahead with aggressive fossil-fuel expansion plans. “It’s like a drug lord blaming everyone but himself for drug problems,” said Gernot Wagner, a climate economist at Columbia business school. “I hate to tell you, but you’re the chief executive of the largest publicly traded oil company, you have influence, you make decisions that matter. Exxon are at the mercy of markets but they are also shaping them, they are shaping policy. So no, you can’t blame the public for the failure to fix climate change.” Troves of internal documents and analyses have over the past decade established that Exxon knew of the dangers of global heating as far back as the 1970s, but forcefully and successfully worked to sow doubt about the climate crisis and stymie action to clamp down on fossil fuel usage. The revelations have inspired litigation against Exxon across the US. “What they’re really trying to do is to whitewash their own history, to make it invisible,” said Robert Brulle, an environment policy expert at Brown University who has researched climate disinformation spread by the fossil-fuel industry. A 2021 analysis also demonstrated that Exxon had downplayed its own role in the climate crisis for decades in public-facing messaging.

Man charged with smuggling greenhouse gases into US from Mexico - A California man was arrested and charged for allegedly smuggling greenhouse gases into the United States from Mexico and selling them for profit, federal prosecutors announced Monday. Michael Hart, of San Diego, is accused of purchasing refrigerants in Mexico and bringing them into the U.S. in his vehicle, where they were hidden under a tarp and tools, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said Monday. He allegedly posted the fluids for sale on OfferUp, Facebook Marketplace and other websites, Justice Department (DOJ) prosecutors added. Hart’s indictment marks the first prosecution in the U.S. that includes charges related to the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act of 2020, which prohibits the importation of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) without permission from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). HFCs are powerful greenhouse gases that drive climate change and are typically used in refrigeration, insulation, air-conditioners, aerosols, and fire extinguishing systems, per prosecutors, citing the EPA. They are used to replace ozone-depleting substances, the production and importation of which the U.S. is trying to phase out. “It is illegal to import certain refrigerants into the United States because of their documented and significantly greater contribution to climate change,” Assistant Attorney General Todd Kim, of the DOJ’s Environment and Natural Resources Division, said.“We are committed to enforcing the AIM Act and other laws that seek to prevent environmental harm,” Kim added. Hart appeared for a federal arraignment Monday and pleaded not guilty to 13 charges including conspiracy, illegal important, and illegal merchandise sales, prosecutors said. He is expected to appear in court again on March 25.

Just How Much Money Do CO2 Pipeline Companies Stand to Make From the Inflation Reduction Act? - Developers who hope to build thousands of miles of carbon dioxide pipelines across the Midwest continue to face fierce opposition from landowners and repeated setbacks from state and local regulators. But that hasn’t stopped one company from attempting to expand its project—already the largest proposed pipeline of its kind in the United States.Over the last month and a half, Summit Carbon Solutions has announced deals with two ethanol producers that added 25 additional facilities to its proposed 2,500-mile carbon dioxide pipeline network in the Midwest. The project would transport CO2 captured from ethanol plants across five states and store the climate pollutant permanently underground in North Dakota.By getting more carbon dioxide under contract, the expansion would help Summit’s financial case and, critically, would open up billions of dollars in additional tax credits, without which the project would never be built. If the pipeline is built and operates at full capacity, Summit and its partners could be eligible for as much as $18 billion in federal tax benefits over 12 years. In reality, the pipeline is unlikely to get that full amount, experts say, but it could still reap many billions, potentially enough to cover most or even all of its construction and operating costs. Developers who hope to build thousands of miles of carbon dioxide pipelines across the Midwest continue to face fierce opposition from landowners and repeated setbacks from state and local regulators. But that hasn’t stopped one company from attempting to expand its project—already the largest proposed pipeline of its kind in the United States.Over the last month and a half, Summit Carbon Solutions has announced deals with two ethanol producers that added 25 additional facilities to its proposed 2,500-mile carbon dioxide pipeline network in the Midwest. The project would transport CO2 captured from ethanol plants across five states and store the climate pollutant permanently underground in North Dakota.By getting more carbon dioxide under contract, the expansion would help Summit’s financial case and, critically, would open up billions of dollars in additional tax credits, without which the project would never be built. If the pipeline is built and operates at full capacity, Summit and its partners could be eligible for as much as $18 billion in federal tax benefits over 12 years. In reality, the pipeline is unlikely to get that full amount, experts say, but it could still reap many billions, potentially enough to cover most or even all of its construction and operating costs.“Just obscene gobs of money” is how Emma Schmit, an Iowa-based activist with BOLD Alliance, who helps organize landowner opposition to CO2 pipelines, put it. The project is among several that have been proposed in the Midwest as a result of the Biden administration’s effort to fight climate change by slashing carbon emissions from industries like ethanol production. The pipelines have facedsignificant backlash from environmentalists and Midwest landowners who worry about potentially dangerous CO2 leaks and are angry with the developers for attempting to seize their land through eminent domain. In October, Navigator CO2 Ventures canceled a separate carbon dioxide pipeline project amid mounting public opposition and ongoing regulatory setbacks. Summit has faced numerous setbacks of its own, the most recent being the rejection last month of a county-level permit in Nebraska. Given the sustained resistance that Summit has faced, and the project’s high costs—an estimated $8 billion for construction—the generous federal tax credit could help explain why the company is expanding its scope, rather than retreating. “The government is trying to kickstart technologies that have only rarely been used,” Cohan said. “Agree with it or not, the logic of these carbon capture tax credits is to make them especially generous at first with the hope that they can be scaled back as carbon capture becomes more widespread in the future.” The benefits are particularly large for ethanol plants, which produce a near-pure stream of carbon dioxide and are therefore among the cheapest carbon capture operations. The tax credit’s value, at up to $85 per ton of carbon dioxide captured and stored, far exceeds the estimated costs of running carbon capture on ethanol plants, which numerousestimates place between $20 and $40 per ton. America’s ethanol industry is facing a major crossroads as electric vehicles eat into gasoline demand, and many in the industry now see carbon capture and the federal funding backing it as a critical lifeline for corn farmers across the Midwest. Some 40 percent of U.S. corn crops are used to make ethanol, which is then mixed into gasoline sold at the pumps, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. All of this has raised questions of whether the Summit project would be a good use of taxpayer money. The company has argued that it will help lower the carbon footprint of a fuel that is already used in cars and could be used to produce lower-carbon jet fuel, known as sustainable aviation fuel. Some scientists have questioned whether ethanol should be considered a sustainable fuel at all. One 2022 study determined that U.S. ethanol has a climate footprint similar to or even greater than gasoline, because increased production has converted more grasslands or forests to croplands and demanded more fertilizer. A far better option,some scientists and environmental advocates have argued, would be to focus on accelerating a shift to electric cars to replace ethanol altogether. Much of the debate comes down to whether ethanol use can be phased out relatively quickly or whether its continued use in cars, planes or both warrants reducing the climate-warming pollution associated with its production. According to Summit, the additional 25 ethanol plants would be able to capture 7.8 million metric tons of CO2 every year, bringing the total amount under contract for the pipeline to more than 16 million metric tons.

Wood pellet giant Drax targets California forests -- Phoebe Cooke, DeSmog --Plans by biomass giant Drax to manufacture wood pellets sourced from Californian forests will endanger natural habitats and increase toxic air pollution for rural communities, campaigners warn.The British energy company has partnered with Golden State Natural Resources, a government-linked nonprofit which plans to build two industrial plants in rural California counties that would produce one million tonnes of compressed wood fiber pellets a year.One plant would be in Tuolumne County in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and the other in Lassen County in the state’s far northeast. From there, pellets would be shipped by rail to the city of Stockton, exported internationally, and burnt as biomass fuel to create electricity. At its board meeting last Wednesday, Golden State Natural Resources ratified a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Drax.The agreement comes as a BBC investigation revealed that Drax was burning rare forest wood in the Canadian province of British Columbia.BBC Panorama found that in 2023 the company took more than 40,000 tonnes of wood from so-called “old-growth” forests in B.C. Following the investigation, the company issued a statement expressing confidence that its “biomass is sustainable and legally harvested.”Drax already operates 18 wood pellet plants across the U.S. and Canada, but the MOU finalized on February 28 is the most concrete indication yet of Drax’s ambition to expand into California, a state with 33 million acres of forest.The wood pellets Drax produces are treated as “carbon neutral” under international accounting rules, based on an assumption that new-growth trees will capture the carbon lost by wood burnt for electricity. Butscientists and campaigners have long disputed these claims. A 2021 study from the European Academies Science Advisory Council concluded that burning wood for energy “is not effective in mitigating climate change and may even increase the risk of dangerous climate change.” A power station operated by Drax in the UK generates 8 percent of the UK’s “renewable” electricity, but is also the single largest emitter of carbon dioxide.Golden State Natural Resources claims its forest management techniques reduce the risk of wildfires — a claim which has also been disputed by campaigners — and that it maintains “stringent guardrails” to ensure the sourcing of materials for pellets is sustainable. Drax also says its pellets are made from “sustainable biomass” generated from low-grade roundwood, sawmill residues, and forest residues — although severalinvestigations have found instances of the company using primary forest materials.The plan calls for sourcing wood from areas that encompass eight National Forests, and activists in California have raised concerns that the production of this “renewable” power could endanger vital biodiversity in the forests, home to California’s endangered gray wolves. They are also concerned that the facilities could harm local communities, some of which face high health burdens.A January 2024 study by the journal Renewable Energy found that thousands of tons of toxic air pollutants, from nitrogen oxide to volatile organic compounds, are emitted in the pellet-making process, especially in the southeastern United States where most pellet plants are located.Rita Frost, a forests advocate from environmental nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), said the project would “diminish our forests’ ability to contribute to the fight against climate change, increase carbon emissions during a critical juncture when we must be reducing them instead, and compound health harms in vulnerable communities.”

"No Tesla Is Safe": Eco-Terrorists Attack German Power Grid, Causing Outage At Gigafactory --A far-left militant/environmental group, known as "Vulkangruppe" (Volcano Group), has claimed responsibility for an attack on Germany's electricity infrastructure on Tuesday, paralyzing vehicle production at Tesla's European Gigafactory near Berlin. Police in the state of Brandenburg said someone set fire to a nearby high-voltage tower, causing a blaze that cut off electricity to the Gigafactory and more than 60,000 people in the surrounding area. A Tesla spokesperson confirmed to Reuters that the attack on the grid caused a power outage at the factory, resulting in a production halt. The spokesperson added that the site was evacuated. "We sabotaged Tesla today. Because Tesla in Grünau eats up earth, resources, people, labor and spits out 6,000 SUVs, killing machines and monster trucks per week. Our gift for March 8th is to shut down Tesla. Because the complete destruction of the Gigafactory and with it the sawing off of "technofascists" like Elend Musk are a step on the path to liberation from patriarchy," the eco-terrorist wrote in a 2,500-word attack on Tesla. On X, CEO Elon Musk responded to the incident by saying: "These are either the dumbest eco-terrorists on Earth or they’re puppets of those who don’t have good environmental goals. Stopping production of electric vehicles, rather than fossil fuel vehicles, ist extrem dumm."

SEC will require companies to disclose emissions, with one glaring gap --After two years of drafting, public comments, and delays, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, finally approved its highly-anticipated climate disclosure rules on Wednesday, laying out new requirements for companies to divulge their climate risks and some of their greenhouse emissions in public filings submitted annually to the agency.The new rules require publicly traded companies to analyze and publish how climate change threatens their business — whether through physical risks like floods and other extreme weather or through “transition risks” like regulation. This is in line with the SEC’s mission to protect investors and maintain “fair, orderly, and efficient markets.”Environmental advocates have welcomed the rules, but with a major caveat. Between the first draft of the SEC’s climate disclosure rules — published in 2022 — and now, the regulator scrapped requirements for companies to reveal greenhouse emissions that stem from the products they sell. These so-called “Scope 3” emissions are often the most significant source of a company’s climate pollution. According to the nonprofit CDP, which runs the world’s most widely used emissions disclosure platform, they make up an average of 75 percent all companies’ emissions.For fossil fuel companies — whose products are the primary driver of climate change — those Scope 3 emissions can make up to 95 percent of their carbon footprint.By excluding Scope 3 emissions from disclosure, “regulators are failing to accurately reflect the best available scientific evidence and heed the risks at hand to the economy,” Laura Peterson, a corporate analyst for the nonprofit Union of Concerned Scientists, said in a statement. Charles Slidders, a senior attorney for the nonprofit Center for International Environmental Law,said that the SEC’s approach was “an abdication of the agency’s authority and responsibility to address significant financial risks.”The SEC has been talking about climate disclosure for more than a decade. In 2010, the agency’s five-member board of commissioners voted to provide companies with “interpretive guidance” on existing disclosure rules that might be affected by new climate-related legal and business developments. It started looking into more concrete requirements in 2020 and released the first draft of its disclosure rules in March 2022.Proponents of the new rules point to escalating financial risks from climate change — just last year, the U.S. logged a record-breaking number of climate- and weather-related disasters that cost the county at least $92 billion — and say the SEC must protect investors through more rigorous disclosure requirements, including of Scope 3 emissions. According to the nonprofit Ceres, which advocates for corporate environmental sustainability, 97 percent of investor comments submitted to the SEC favored corporate Scope 3 disclosure as part of the agency’s rules for public companies.Those opposed to stringent disclosure rules, however, say they represent a regulatory overreach by the SEC, and that issues related to climate policy should be left to Congress or to federal environmental agencies. “If Congress meant for the SEC to broadly regulate registrants’ climate change policy, then it would have clearly authorized the Commission to do so,” as the American Petroleum Institute, a lobbying group, said in its 2022comments to the SEC.

10 states file legal challenge to SEC climate disclosure rule West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey announced a coalition of 10 states will file a legal challenge to new regulations requiring public companies to disclose their climate-related risks and direct greenhouse gas emissions. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) voted 3-2 Wednesday to approve the climate disclosure rule, which will go into effect in 2026. Intense blowback from the business community delayed the passage of the final rule as the agency combed through thousands of comment letters following the initial proposal in 2022. West Virginia and Georgia co-led the petition for review filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th circuit, Morrisey said, joined by Alabama, Alaska, Indiana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Wyoming and Virginia. A copy of the petition later provided to The Hill also lists New Hampshire as a plaintiff. “This is a backdoor move to undermine the energy industry,” Morrisey said. He later added, “This is yet another attempt to advance an agenda without statutory authority, and I for one am not gonna let that happen.” The new rules sparked immediate backlash from business groups and Republicans who have long opposed the change. Although the final rule rolled back a provision that would have required companies to report emissions that stem from their supply chains and products, it could face additional legal challenges. In addition to challenging the SEC’s statutory authority to advance the rule, Morrisey said “this rule also appears to have some serious First Amendment problems.” “We have concerns with compelled speech, and this is setting up a framework where the federal agency is forcing companies to put forth initiatives and disclose information that it might not otherwise want to do,” Morrisey said. U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness Executive Vice President Tom Quaadman said the business lobbying giant is “carefully reviewing the details of the rule and its legal underpinnings to understand its full impact.” “While it appears that some of the most onerous provisions of the initial proposed rule have been removed, this remains a novel and complicated rule that will likely have significant impact on businesses and their investors. The Chamber will continue to use all the tools at our disposal, including litigation if necessary, to prevent government overreach and preserve a competitive capital market system,” Quaadman said. Senate Banking Committee ranking member Tim Scott (R-S.C.) also vowed to fight the rule under the Congressional Review Act, a law that allows Congress to review and potentially overrule new federal regulations through a joint resolution. “Ignoring the concerns of Americans, small business owners, and stakeholders from across the country, [SEC] Chair [Gary] Gensler pressed forward with a final rule that falls outside his agency’s authority and does far more to advance the Biden administration’s far-Left climate agenda than uphold the SEC’s mandate to protect investors, maintain fair, orderly, and efficient markets, and facilitate capital formation,” Scott said. House Financial Services Committee Chair Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) blasted the “immense consequences” of “such disastrous regulations” and announced a field hearing scheduled for March 18. “When fewer companies are entering our public markets than any time in recent memory, we should be making it easier for firms to go and stay public. Instead, Chair Gensler is overstepping his statutory authority, piling on massive new compliance costs that will be destructive to workers, investors, and job creators alike. Our capital markets are currently the envy of the world,” McHenry said. Gensler cast the updated rule as one that “benefits investors and issuers alike” and would standardize reporting that many companies are already doing. Of the 1,000 biggest stocks on the Russell Index, around 90 percent already publish some form of climate disclosure and nearly 60 percent disclose information about their emissions. But opponents say it would discourage private companies from going public, require significant financial investment in disclosure controls, increase costs for consumers and undermine American business competitiveness.

Net Zero Is A National Security Threat & Must Be Abandoned, Former Security Minister Warns -Decarbonising the steel and electricity industry in pursuit of Net Zero represents a real and present danger to national security and must be abandoned, a former Security Minister has warned. Writing in a foreword to a new paper from campaign group Net Zero Watch, Sir Gerald Howarth, Minister for International Security Strategy under David Cameron, said:Our adversaries are watching us like hawks, so let us leave them in no doubt: we are rearming and rebuilding, and Net Zero is firmly on hold.Professor Gwythian Prins, a defence expert and one of the paper’s authors, agrees that with the recent deterioration of the world’s security situation, “luxury beliefs” such as Net Zero must be jettisoned as a matter of urgency:This is the moment when the music stops. The Port Talbot closure harshly exposes the costs of luxury ‘green’ beliefs. We cannot be dependent on imports for the full range of necessary steels to rebuild our arsenals – the Navy first and foremost – and, most ridiculously, we cannot depend for them on our global antagonists.Furthermore, our armed forces are wholly dependent on oil to keep them in the field, and our electricity grid will collapse without gas. Any attempt to abandon them will leave us entirely at the mercy of hostile powers.The paper also includes a contribution from Gautam Kalghatgi, a Professor of Combustion and Energy Engineering, who ridicules plans to decarbonise the armed forces through use of batteries and biofuels. Historian (and Daily Sceptic regular) Guy de la Bédoyère sets out the eternal historical lesson that technological laggards usually end up the victims of conquest by their more advanced neighbours.

John Kerry: US committed to tackling climate crisis despite fossil fuel growth - The US continues to be a force for good in tackling the climate crisis, despite itssoaring fossil fuel production, the John Kerry has insisted.The outgoing US climate chief acknowledged, however, that strong safeguards were needed to dismantle oil and gas infrastructure before the switch to renewables could become permanent, as he prepared to leave his post as special presidential envoy.“I don’t agree that we are a force for ill,” he told the Guardian in an interview at the US embassy in London to mark his departure from government. “We are living up to our obligations to transition … we are in transition, and as our renewables come online they [fossil fuels] are going out at a very rapid rate.”The US, the world’s largest economy, is also the largest oil and gas producer, as fracking and exploration have burgeoned in response to rising fossil fuel prices.The US president, Joe Biden, called a pause on export permits in January, but experts say this will not be enough to halt the rapid expansion that thebonanza has engendered.But Kerry also sounded the alarm over the future of gas. “I’m very concerned about the infrastructure that is being built,” he said. “I think we have to have a solemn commitment [to phase out the infrastructure, potentially well before the end of its life]. I raised this with every gas producer that I happen to be in conversation with. We cannot build out 30- and 40-year infrastructure that is going to wind up being stranded assets when this transition takes place.”

The fossil-fuel-promoting agency that Biden seems powerless to stop - The federally created body that promotes U.S. exports is continuing to finance fossil fuel projects abroad — even after advisers aligned with President Joe Biden’s climate goals pointed out those investments’ risks. Five people with firsthand knowledge of discussions inside the U.S. Export-Import Bank described a sense of frustration among members of the organization’s climate council that the agency continues to invest in projects that run counter to the president’s policies. Those include oil and gas development in Bahrain and an Indonesian oil refinery that received a $100 million loan. The bank, known as EXIM, is an independent federal agency focused on creating jobs and boosting American competitiveness by promoting U.S. exports. It provides financing such as federally backed loans or guarantees to projects that might struggle to get private sector investments. It created the climate council at Biden’s urging in 2021. Several council members repeatedly voiced concerns over the incongruity between the bank’s financing of fossil fuel projects and U.S. climate policy, according to several of the people who were granted anonymity to speak about sensitive information. Some advisers have also argued during council meetings that the bank is assuming that investments in fossil fuel infrastructure will lead to long-term benefits, such as jobs, at a time when the U.S. and other countries have agreed to shift away from oil, natural gas and coal. “I think it really comes down to transparency about the jobs created and the opportunities for long-term exports,” one person said. “Can you look at the public information and be able to justify that? I don’t think so, and that’s the real frustration.” Concern about the bank’s fossil fuel investments have reached the highest levels of government, with Biden voicing disagreement over the Indonesian project. That investment came after the U.S. had vowed during 2021’s global climate talks to end public finance for overseas fossil fuel development by the end of 2022. A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said the administration “stands by its commitment to end new direct public support for the international unabated fossil fuel energy sector,” referring to power plants and other facilities that don’t capture their climate pollution. “Ex-Im made an independent decision to move forward with this financing under its authorities, and its decision does not reflect administration policy,” Adrienne Watson, the NSC spokesperson, told POLITICO’s E&E News via email. EXIM spokesperson Elizabeth Lewis said in an email that the agency “seeks to align with the administration’s climate agenda while still complying with EXIM’s statutory requirements, including the charter prohibition against discrimination based solely on industry, sector or business, and its mission to support U.S. jobs.” EXIM staff members are “actively working” to update the agency’s environmental due diligence procedures, added Lewis, noting that “any change to EXIM’s charter must be passed through Congressional action.” The bank’s support of oil and gas projects has sparked criticism from activists and some officials who say it’s undermining Biden’s pledge to stop funding international fossil fuel projects. “Unfortunately, I think that EXIM has worked in defiance of Biden and his climate agenda,” said Kate DeAngelis, senior international finance program manager at the environmental group Friends of the Earth.

Inside the E.P.A. Decision to Narrow Two Big Climate Rules - President Biden’s climate ambitions are colliding with political and legal realities, forcing his administration to recalibrate two of its main tools to cut the emissions that are heating the planet. This week the Environmental Protection Agency said it would delay a regulation to require gas-burning power plants to cut their carbon dioxide emissions, likely until after the November election. The agency also is expected to slow the pace at which car makers must comply with a separate regulation designed to sharply limit tailpipe emissions. Michael S. Regan, the administrator of the E.P.A., said on Friday that changes to the two major regulations wouldn’t compromise the administration’s ability to meet its target of cutting United States emissions roughly in half by 2030. That goal is designed to keep America in line with a global pledge of averting the worst consequences of a warming planet. “We are well on our way to meeting the president’s goals,” Mr. Regan said in a telephone interview from Texas. “I am very confident that the choices we are making are smart choices that will continue to rein in climate pollution.” But experts said the Biden administration is making significant concessions in the face of industry opposition and unease in the American public about the pace of the transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy, as well as the threat of legal challenges before conservative courts. “There are two key factors: the Supreme Court, and the election,” said Jody Freeman, the director of the Harvard Law School Environmental and Energy Law Program and a former Obama White House official. “There are some adjustments needed for both,” she said. “You’ve got make sure these final rules are legally defensible, and you’ve got to make sure you’ve done enough for the stakeholders that you have support for the rules.”

Ohio Farm Bureau files as interveners in the Frasier Solar project - The Ohio Farm Bureau Federation (OFBF) filed a motion to intervene in the proceedings before the Ohio Power Siting Board concerning the Frasier Solar project. The motion aims to grant OFBF full party status in the matter of Frasier Solar, LLC's application for a Certificate of Environmental Compatibility and Public Need. Danville-native Dale Arnold, Director of Energy Development Ohio Farm Bureau Federation, said he has been involved with giving advice on the Frasier Solar Project and on solar developments in Knox County for some time. “I had discussions with [Knox] County Commissioners on those particular issues over a year and a half ago and continued to talk with farmers, continue to work closely with the SWCD (Soil and Water Conservation District) there in Knox County, helping county farm bureau leaders, be involved in forums to ask questions and address those particular issues,” Arnold told Mount Vernon News. He added that historically the OFBF has been engaged in maintaining property rights for farmers, including when it comes to signing leases for solar projects. “Property rights for our members is absolutely, positively huge,” he said. “And if you take a look at our policy with regard to that, yes, we advocate basically that our members have the right to enter into effective leases and agreements to accommodate power generation on their property. Those particular projects have to be very open, very transparent provisions there with regard to soil and water conservation and protection.” Arnold emphasized that the evaluation process, overseen by the Ohio Power Siting Board, is akin to a judicial proceeding. ”What people are finding out, too, when you talk about power siting here in the state of Ohio, it's actually an adjudicatory or a judicial process,” he said. Furthermore, Arnold highlighted the role of local governments in representing the interests of their constituents in the evaluation process. "Local governments have automatic ability to become a party of record in a proceeding to advocate for and represent the people that they represent of their constituent and interested parties, such as Farm Bureau,” he said. Arnold also pointed out the importance of public involvement, stating that individuals and organizations, such as the Farm Bureau, have the ability to participate in the process. Arnold acknowledged that while the Farm Bureau has members on both sides of the issue regarding the Frasier Solar project, their primary concern is ensuring the protection of soil and water resources, subsurface drainage, road use maintenance agreements and other impacts in the areas affected by the project. "Our members with Farm Bureau policy have asked and charged us to do that on power siting cases for generation as well as transmission lines and pipelines,” he said. Moreover, Arnold emphasized the importance of negotiating stipulated agreements for projects like Frasier Solar, outlining key provisions and requirements that companies must adhere to from inception to decommissioning.

A lobbying frenzy builds around air pollution legislation focused on reducing summer smog -- A package of bills designed to reduce Colorado’s summertime smog problem through an overhaul of state air pollution regulations is at the center of one of the most contentious lobbyist battles at the state Capitol this year.The trio of bills, filed in February by Democratic lawmakers, would revamp the state’s approach to regulating air pollution through changes to permitting, enforcement, and establishing new industrial pollution rules. The proposal would expand the authority of state air regulators, step up financial penalties for companies that repeatedly violate pollution rules, and pause drilling during the summertime ozone season.The individual bills have different aims, but as a legislative package, they’re one of the issues getting the most attention from lobbyists during the 2024 session, data from the Colorado Secretary of State compiled by CPR News show.A large coalition of environmental, conservation, and public health groups including 350 Colorado, Earthworks, Earthjustice, Conservation Colorado, and CoPIRG, the state chapter of the Public Interest Network, have hired lobbyists to urge lawmakers to pass the legislation and argue the proposal would help Colorado rein in ground-level ozone, a dangerous lung irritant that has long plagued the Front Range and can shorten people’s lives and worsen other health problems.Lobbyists for the oil and gas industry, construction companies, and business groups are working to defeat the proposal, which would effectively overhaul state air pollution regulations.As many as 117 registered lobbyists are working one side or the other on one of the bills, are seeking amendments, or have told state officials they’re monitoring the proposals as of late this week. Other bills have 94 and 84 lobbyists working on them. Among those numbers are lobbyists working to persuade legislators on all three bills.The Colorado Oil and Gas Association and the American Petroleum Institute Colorado excoriated the legislation the day it was announced, warning the proposal is a direct threat to the state’s oil and gas industry and could undermine the state’s economy.Lobbyists hired by the state’s top fossil fuel groups are working to defeat all three of the bills in the legislative package. The proposal includes Senate Bill 165, SB 166, and House Bill 1330, all opposition from major driller Civitas Resources, the Colorado Contractors Association, and the Colorado Competitive Council, which represents businesses across the state.Rachel Beck, the council’s executive director, said manufacturers and other businesses have struggled to keep up with the pace of new pollution laws and regulations in Colorado, which have increased in recent years. That includes some agency rules that are a live issue currently under discussion that the proposed legislation appears poised to change. “Projects that require air quality permits are not things that can be easily stood up or stood down,” Beck said in a phone interview with CPR News. “There's an element of planning that's required and investment that goes into these kinds of projects. And so that certainty is really important.”Other powerful groups have hired lobbyists to defeat specific bills in the l egislative package, state filings show.

Half of US states join GOP lawsuits challenging new EPA rule on deadly soot pollution (AP) — A new Biden administration rule that sets tougher standards for deadly soot pollution faced a barrage of legal challenges Wednesday, as 25 Republican-led states and a host of business groups filed lawsuits seeking to block the rule in court.Twenty-four states, led by attorneys general from Kentucky and West Virginia, filed a joint challenge stating that new Environmental Protection Agency rule would raise costs for manufacturers, utilities and families and could block new manufacturing plants and infrastructure such as roads and bridges. Texas filed a separate suit, as did business groups led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers.“The EPA’s new rule has more to do with advancing President (Joe) Biden’s radical green agenda than protecting Kentuckians’ health or the environment, said Kentucky Attorney General Russell Coleman, who is leading the joint lawsuit along with West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.The EPA rule “will drive jobs and investment out of Kentucky and overseas, leaving employers and hardworking families to pay the price,” Coleman said.The soot rule is one of several EPA dictates under attack from industry groups and Republican-led states. The Supreme Court heard arguments last month on a GOP challenge to the agency’s “good neighbor rule,” which restricts smokestack emissions from power plants and other industrial sources that burden downwind areas. Three energy-producing states — Ohio, Indiana and West Virginia — challenged the rule, along with the steel industry and other groups, calling it costly and ineffective. The rule is on hold in a dozen states because of the court challenges.In opposing the soot rule, Republicans and industry groups say the United States already has some of the strictest air quality standards in the world — tougher than the European Union or major polluters such as China and India.Tightening U.S. standards “wouldn’t improve public health, but it would put as many as 30% of all U.S. counties out of compliance under federal law, leading to aggressive new permitting requirements that could effectively block new economic activity,’' Coleman said.The EPA rule sets maximum levels of fine particle pollution — more commonly known as soot — at 9 micrograms per cubic meter of air, down from 12 micrograms established a decade ago under the Obama administration. Environmental and public health groups hailed the rule as a major step to improve the health of Americans, including future generations. EPA scientists have estimated exposure at previous limits contributed to thousands of early deaths from heart disease and lung cancer, along with other health problems.EPA Administrator Michael Regan said the new soot rule, finalized last month, would create $46 billion in net health benefits by 2032, including prevention of up to 800,000 asthma attacks and 4,500 premature deaths. The rule will especially benefit children, older adults and those with heart and lung conditions, Regan said, as well as people in low-income and minority communities adversely affected by decades of industrial pollution.

Environmental Orgs Release Policies for Reclaiming ‘Zombie Mines’ - A number of organizations like the Alliance for Appalachia, Earthjustice and Sierra Club, among others, who work in coal communities on issues related to the environment, law and other areas have released a policy platform to address and prevent unreclaimed “zombie mines”— idled modern-era mines that have not been cleaned up by the responsible coal companies. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law of 2021 earmarked $11 billion to clean up abandoned coal mines created before the 1977 enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA). SMCRA was supposed to ensure that no mines permitted after 1977 would be abandoned without funds available to clean up and reclaim them, but the provisions put into place have not done that. Regulators have set the amount of money for required reclamation bonds too low, and they are not enforcing the requirement that coal companies reclaim land contemporaneously with coal removal. The policies in the platform include eliminating self-bonding so that money and not promises are required to be put into place for reclamation as well as amending SMCRA and existing Treasury Department rules to ensure bonds are from certified bond companies and cover the full aggregate risk created by mines, among other recommendations. “Zombie” mines, or mines which have not produced coal nor demonstrated reclamation for months or years, represent an unknown percentage of the total of disturbed coal mine lands nationally. “We started by looking at mine reclamation issues – we’ve been noticing a trend of coal mines not getting reclaimed in a timely manner,” Erin Savage, senior program manager for Appalachian Voices, told the Daily Yonder. “And also a lot of mines, the permits are going through bankruptcies, sometimes multiple rounds of bankruptcies. And so we were starting to get concerned about whether coal companies are actually doing the reclamation that they’re supposed to do under the law, and also whether the systems that are in place to try to ensure mines get reclaimed are actually working as intended.” A recent analysis of Kentucky permits found that nearly 40% of “active” mines haven’t produced coal since 2020. In part as a result of these loopholes and regulatory inconsistencies or gaps, there are nearly one million acres of modern coal mines in 12 states that have not yet been reclaimed, according to analyses by the Western Organization of Resource Councils and Appalachian Voices. Some of these mines have idled for years without producing coal or making progress on reclamation, according to the organizations. They often leave the surrounding area vulnerable to leaks and other environmental hazards, and the problem is anticipated only to grow. Shannon Anderson, community organizer and staff attorney for the Powder River Basin Resource Council in Wyoming, said the policy platform sends a message across the country, specifically Coal Country, that policymakers and regulators must address long-standing issues related to mine reclamation and bonding concerns.

States eye rescue of retiring coal plants - Republican lawmakers in almost a dozen states want to prop up coal plants that face closure amid a boom in renewable energy and a federal crackdown on power plant pollution.Legislation that aims to keep coal plants on the grid has been proposed in states from Alaska to New Hampshire. While many of the bills have failed to get traction so far, several are poised to become law in Utah and another recently passed the Kansas Senate.The bills take various forms, but they generally give state regulators more power to intervene in coal plant retirements, requiring utilities to cover costs or find replacement sources. One Utah bill would even allow the state to purchase plants using taxpayer dollars.Efforts by states to preserve coal plants aren’t new. But they come amid warnings from the North American Electric Reliability Corp., the nation’s top grid monitor, that many areas of the country face a growing risk of rolling blackouts partly because major wind and solar projects aren’t being built fast enough to replace retiring coal plants.Sponsors of the bills say time is short to save baseload power, citing a growing reliance on variable renewable energy and concern about rising electric rates. Legislation has emerged in at least 11 states: Alaska, Arizona, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah and WyomingIn many cases, their legislation resembles a 2022 model bill from the American Legislative Exchange Council, or ALEC, a network of conservative legislators. The proposal targets the preservation of “traditional power plants” — defined as coal, natural gas, nuclear and hydropower — to ensure electricity reliability.“People were concerned that power plants were being taken offline before the new power plants were ready to go,” Joe Trotter, ALEC’s energy, environment and agriculture task force director, said in an interview. “When you marry that with basically the increase in electrification and electric cars — essentially the increased demand for electricity — it just creates a problem.”It’s a claim that opponents of the bills dispute, pointing out that coal plants are now more expensive to run than renewable projects.Michelle Solomon, a senior policy analyst at the Energy Innovation think tank, said many political interventions for coal may have a lot to do with “inertia.” Coal plants have long been economic engines for nearby communities, she said, and closures can be “devastating.”However, that doesn’t justify keeping plants open past their useful life, especially given their climate impacts, Solomon said. Energy Innovation released a report last year that found that all but one of the nation’s 210 remaining coal plants cost more to run than if they were retired and replaced with solar, wind and battery storage.Proposed rules from EPA would require coal plants to either retire by 2040 or capture 90 percent of their planet-warming emissions by 2030, adding to their operating cost. That rule — which could change before it is published — is expected to be finalized in April.

Russia Mulls Putting Nuclear Power Plant On Moon --Russia is considering a nuclear power plant installation on the moon starting between 2033 and 2035, according to the head of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos. Russia—along with China—is considering the idea of placing a nuclear power plant on the moon over the next decade or so, and the two countries have been working together on a lunar program for nuclear space energy. “Today we are seriously considering a project—somewhere at the turn of 2033-2035—to deliver and install a power unit on the lunar surface together with our Chinese colleagues,” Yuri Borisov, head of Roscosmos said on Tuesday. According to Borisov, solar panels would provide an insufficient amount of electricity to power future lunar settlements. Nuclear power, on the other hand, would be sufficient. Russia also has plans to build a nuclear-powered cargo spaceship—most of which had already been mapped out, although the one remaining question in the project was how to cool the nuclear reactor. The cargo spacecraft would be able to transport large cargoes from one orbit to another, Borisov said. Moscow will need to launch additional lunar missions first, before fully exploring the idea of a Russian/China crewed mission or a lunar base. In February, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke out against the United States, who accused Moscow of planning to put nuclear weapons in space. Last year, Russia suffered a significant defeat when its Luna-25 mission failed nine days after launch when it collided with the lunar surface. At the time, analysts spoke out against Russia’s space prowess, accusing it of yet another indicator of how the Russian space program had deteriorated in recent years. Luna 25 would have been Russia’s first probe on the moon’s surface since the Soviet collapse and the first since 1976.

Dominion Energy Announces Closing of Sale of Ohio Natural Gas Distribution Company -- Dominion Energy, Inc. today announced closure of the sale of its Ohio natural gas utility – The East Ohio Gas Company – to Enbridge Inc. for approximately $6.6 billion, including assumed indebtedness and adjusted for customary closing items. This transaction was previously announced on Sept. 5, 2023. The East Ohio Gas Company is a Cleveland-based gas utility employing about 1,500 people and serving 1.2 million Ohio homes and businesses. Dominion Energy and Enbridge expect to close on the sales of Dominion Energy's gas distribution companies headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, and Gastonia, N.C., in separate transactions later this year. The transaction received all customary regulatory approvals.

Enbridge Completes Acquisition of The East Ohio Gas Company - Enbridge announced today the closing of its acquisition of The East Ohio Gas Company ("EOG") from Dominion Energy, Inc. The gas utility will be doing business as Enbridge Gas Ohio and will join Enbridge's Gas Distribution and Storage Business Unit. EOG is a premier single-state utility, serving over 1.2 million customers across more than 400 communities in Ohio, with key locations in major metropolitan areas. The gas utility has a robust portfolio of assets, including over 22,000 miles (over 35,400 km) of transmission, gathering and distribution pipelines, underground storage, and interconnections to multiple interstate pipelines and large natural gas producers. "The addition of a strong Ohio-based gas utility company is a great strategic fit for Enbridge. It further diversifies our business and enhances the stable cash flow profile of our assets," said Michele Harradence, Enbridge Executive Vice President and President, Gas Distribution and Storage. "Natural gas utilities have long useful lives and are 'must-have' infrastructure for providing safe, reliable, and affordable energy. This gas utility will help blend and extend our cash flow growth outlook through the end of the decade by adding a steady, regulated investment that supports our long-term dividend profile. With this acquisition, Enbridge has all four of its business units represented in Ohio, providing further value-add opportunities. We welcome EOG and its employees into the Enbridge family of companies and look forward to building long-term productive relationships with all stakeholders in Ohio and continuing to offer Ohio customers the same safe, reliable service they are accustomed to." The closings of the purchases of Questar Gas Company and its related Wexpro companies (collectively, "Questar"), and the Public Service Company of North Carolina, Incorporated ("PSNC"), respectively, are expected to occur following the receipt of required regulatory approvals applicable to each gas utility and are not cross-conditioned. The acquisitions of Questar and PSNC are on track to close in 2024. EOG is expected to contribute more than 40% of the total annualized EBITDA from the three gas utilities Enbridge has agreed to acquire from Dominion.

Canadian energy company Enbridge completes acquisition of East Ohio Gas -- Youngstown Vindicator — Enbridge, an energy company headquartered in Calgary, Canada, announced Thursday it has completed its acquisition of locally operating East Ohio Gas from Dominion Energy. The gas utility will be doing business as Enbridge Gas Ohio and will join Enbridge’s gas distribution and storage business unit. The deal is worth about $6.6 billion. Enbridge, in a bews release, called East Ohio Gas “a premier single-state utility.” It services more than 1.2 million customers across more than 400 communities, including Trumbull, Mahoning and Columbiana counties. The utility has more than 22,000 miles of transmission, gathering and distribution pipelines, underground storage, and interconnections to multiple interstate pipelines and large natural gas producers. “The addition of a strong Ohio-based gas utility company is a great strategic fit for Enbridge. It further diversifies our business and enhances the stable cash flow profile of our assets,” Michele Harradence, Enbridge executive vice president and president, gas distribution and storage, said. Enbridge in September announced it acquired three U.S. energy companies in deals worth about $14 billion. The others are Questar Gas, which serves about 1.2 million customers across Utah, and the Public Service Company of North Carolina, also known as PSNC Energy, which serves more than 600,000 customers across 28 counties in North Carolina. Enbridge reported then with the acquisitions, its gas utility business would be the largest by volume in North America.

Kirkland Attorneys Swat Down $100M Drilling Trespass Claim in Ohio Court | Texas Lawyer The dispute centered on whether a geological formation cited by the plaintiffs was part of an oil and gas field in Ohio known as the Utica Shale, and whether the defendants could develop it. A Kirkland & Ellis team from Houston helped secure a major defense verdict in an Ohio federal court for energy companies based in Oklahoma and Pennsylvania. Defendants EQT Corp. and Gulfport Energy were accused by large landowners of violating an oil and gas lease. A Kirkland & Ellis team from Houston helped secure a major defense verdict in an Ohio federal court for energy companies based in Oklahoma and Pennsylvania. In a two-week jury trial, large Ohio landowners claimed Pittsburgh-based EQT Corp. and Oklahoma City-based Gulfport Energy Corp. trespassed their property by drilling wells and converting natural gas without permission.

Oil, Gas Companies Get Jury Trial Win in Ohio Takings Dispute - Bloomberg Law -

• Dispute centers on formations included in lease agreement
• Companies argue shale formations aren’t separate

Energy companies won a jury against Ohio landowners who claimed their property was wrongfully taken when natural gas was produced from under their land without permission. The landowners alleged in their second amended complaint that the leases with the companies, including Gulfport Energy Corp., granted rights to produce natural gas only from the Utica and Marcellus Shale formations. The companies trespassed when they extracted minerals from the Point Pleasant formation because the leases don’t allow production from any formation below the Utica Shale, the plaintiffs said. The companies should have known they weren’t permitted to drill into the Point Pleasant...

Defense Win: Kirkland Attorneys Swat Down $100M Claim - A Kirkland & Ellis team from Houston helped secure a major defense verdict in an Ohio federal court for energy companies based in Oklahoma and Pennsylvania. In a two-week jury trial, large Ohio landowners claimed Pittsburgh-based EQT Corp. and Oklahoma City-based Gulfport Energy Corp. trespassed their property by drilling wells and converting natural gas without permission. The landowners sought more than $100 million in the case at trial. There are also a series of similar mineral trespass claims in state and federal court, and prior to this trial plaintiffs sought class certification in a related case where Kirkland was able to get a ruling denying class certification, according to court records. According to the defendants’ trial brief, Gulfport and EQT claimed the landowners entered into oil and gas leases that permitted drilling and production from their property. An eight-person jury heard testimony from 15 witnesses, including EQT chief executive officer Toby Rice, Gulfport Energy senior vice president Lester Zitkus, plaintiff landowners, geologists and petroleum engineers. The trial and related cases involve the Utica Shale boom that began in the early 2010s and still produces today. According to the plaintiffs’ trial brief, the primary issue was the legal interpretation of the oil and gas lease as to the lessee’s right to drill into and produce oil and gas from the Point Pleasant Formation, which the plaintiffs alleged was adjacent to, but distinct from the Utica Shale. “The central dispute, which the jury will decide at trial, is whether the language ‘formation commonly known as the … Utica Shale’ in the subject leases includes the Point Pleasant Formation,” the plaintiffs’ brief stated. The defendants’ trial brief, drafted by John Kevin West and John C. Ferrell of Steptoe & Johnson in Columbus, Ohio, asserted in rebuttal the plaintiffs were well aware of the Point Pleasant Formation when the original lease was signed, yet never made an issue of it during those extensive negotiations. Later, when the lease was revised, the plaintiffs kept the lease form’s disputed reservation language, the defense brief states. The defense brief went on to remind the court the plaintiffs’ case has been falling apart since the beginning. At summary judgment, the court dismissed “the greater part” of plaintiffs’ breach of contract claim, and plaintiffs subsequently dismissed the rest of that claim. The court also dismissed many of plaintiffs’ trespass claims as applied to specific plots because they failed to support the physical invasion element; and the court granted summary judgment in part in favor of defendants on the Rule of Capture, which is a rule of non-liability for being the first party to capture a natural resource.The jury never got past the first section of the six-page verdict and damages form. On the first question of whether plaintiffs reserved their rights to the Point Pleasant Formation, the jury said no.

Ascent Resources plans more liquids-focused development this year | Oil & Gas Journal -Ascent Resources Utica Holdings LLC, Oklahoma City, has set 2024 guidance with maintenance production of 2.0-2.1 bcfed (88-90% natural gas), and drilling and completions capex of $625-675 million, a decrease of 23% from 2023. For 2024, the company’s Utica shale development plan will be more liquids focused, resulting in a modest reduction in gas production as the company continues to rebalance capital allocation, said Ascent's chairman and chief executive officer, Jeff Fisher, in a release Mar. 7. “We also expect to see a substantial reduction in capital intensity in 2024, which is being driven by continued efficiency gains coupled with shallower declines and a focus on optimization of our production base,” he continued. The company plans to operate 2.5-3 rigs this year to spud 60-65 wells. The full-year 2024 total capital budget of $750-810 million is expected to be fully funded with operating cash flow and is expected to be more than sufficient to hold production flat on an annual basis, the company said in a release Mar. 7. Fourth quarter, full-year 2023 Ascent resources had net production of 2.10 bcfed (1,888 MMcfd natural gas; 10,826 b/d oil; 23,707 b/d NGL), and 2.14 bcfed (1,953 MMcfd natural gas; 10,244 b/d oil; 20,230 b/d NGLs) for the quarter and year, respectively. Liquids production increased to 35,000 b/d during the quarter, a 35% increase over the same prior year period. In fourth-quarter 2023, the company spudded 15 operated wells, hydraulically fractured 10 wells, and turned-in-line 19 wells with an average lateral length of about 16,700 ft. For the full-year, Ascent spudded 74 operated wells, hydraulically fractured 75 wells, and turned-in-line 71 wells with an average lateral length of about 14,200 ft. As of Dec. 31, 2023, Ascent had 882 gross operated producing Utica wells. Net income and adjusted net income were $757 million and $86 million for the quarter, and $2.1 billion and $317 million for the year, respectively. Ascent incurred $234 million of total capital expenditures in fourth-quarter 2023 consisting of $177 million of drilling and completions costs, $49 million of land and leasehold costs, and $8 million of capitalized interest. For the year ended Dec. 31, 2023, Ascent reported net income of $2.1 billion and adjusted net income of $317 million. Ascent incurred a total of $1.0 billion of capital expenditures during the year consisting of $844 million of drilling and completions costs, $138 million of land and leasehold costs, and $36 million for capitalized interest.

EQT Cuts 1 Bcf/d of NatGas Production - In response to the current natural gas price environment, Appalachian natural gas producer EQT Corp. cut 1 Bcf/d of gross production beginning in late February, the company announced March 4.The production cut will be maintained throughout March, and will be reassessed based off market conditions thereafter. Curtailments are expected to total approximately 30 Bcf to 40 Bcf in the first quarter.The company cited warm winter weather and high storage inventory as contributors to low natural gas prices.

Deferring Lower 48 Natural Gas Activity Possible, but Not Now, Gulfport CEO Says - Oklahoma City-based Gulfport Energy Corp., 92% weighted to natural gas, plans to remain nimble this year to ensure it may “defer or accelerate” activity depending on the direction of prices. Speaking to analysts during the recent fourth quarter conference call, CEO John Reinhart said the “volatile natural gas environment reinforces the importance of developing our assets in an efficient and sustainable manner.” For 2024, the strategy remains steady, with more development later this year on liquids-rich targets in the Utica Shale and in the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province, aka SCOOP, he said. At What Price? During the question-and-answer session, Reinhart was asked what it would take for Gulfport to “join your neighbor,” i.e. crosstown rival Chesapeake in pulling back on drilling...

17 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 26 – Mar 3 -- There were 17 new permits issued to drill in the Marcellus/Utica during the week of Feb. 26 – Mar. 3, down 1 from 18 permits issued the prior week. Pennsylvania issued 8 new permits last week. Ohio issued 4 new permits. And West Virginia issued 5 new permits last week. Four companies tied for the top slot of receiving 3 permits each: Chesapeake Energy (Susquehanna County, PA), Seneca Resources (Tioga County, PA), Gulfport Energy (Harrison County, OH), and Antero Resources (Ritchie County, WV). Arsenal Resources received 2 permits (Taylor County, WV). Three companies received a single new permit: Laurel Mountain Energy (Butler County, PA), Campbell Oil & Gas (Westmoreland County, PA), and EOG Resources (Noble County, OH). Antero Resources | Arsenal Resources | Butler County | Campbell Oil & Gas | Chesapeake Energy | EOG Resources | Gulfport Energy | Harrison County | Laurel Mountain Energy | Noble County | Ritchie County | Seneca Resources | Susquehanna County | Taylor County | Tioga County (PA) | Westmoreland County

TC Offloading New England Natural Gas System to Advance Strategy - TC Energy Corp. has inked a $1.14 billion agreement to sell the Portland Natural Gas Transmission System (PNGTS) to BlackRock Inc. and Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners as it pares debt and streamlines its North American pipeline business. The Calgary-based pipeline giant holds 61.7% ownership of PNGTS, a 295-mile, 290 million Dth/d line. Énergir LP subsidiary Northern New England Investment Co. Inc. holds the remainder. CEO François Poirier said the transaction marked “progress toward achieving our 2024 strategic priority of enhancing our balance sheet strength by delivering” about $2.29 billion in asset divestitures.

Three large natural gas pipeline projects are proposed for NC: where they are and what's next -- They have sunny, optimistic names: MVP Southgate. T15 Reliability Project. Southeast Supply Enhancement. Three companies — Equitrans Midstream, Dominion Energy and Williams — have proposed building major natural gas pipelines in North Carolina, primarily in the middle third of the state. The energy companies justify these projects by claiming natural gas must serve as a “bridge fuel” to meet power demands while coal-fired plants are mothballed. Environmental and clean energy advocates argue that methane emissions from these projects — starting at the fracking operations where gas is extracted, to the compressor stations that move the gas through the system, to the pipelines themselves — will accelerate climate change. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, and while short-lived in the atmosphere compared to carbon dioxide, does more damage. The locations of these pipelines also have environmental justice implications. Based on the number of incidents per 1,000 gas pipeline transmission miles, the rate of accidents in disadvantaged communities in North Carolina is 50% higher than those in more affluent, predominantly white areas, according to federal data. This disparity in the incident rate occurs even though disadvantaged communities have only 1,256 gas transmission miles, compared with 2,715 in advantaged communities.

• MVP Southgate: A separate project, but a continuation of the Mountain Valley Pipeline, the southern leg starts in Pittsylvania County, Virginia, and enter North Carolina near Eden, in Rockingham County. Originally, MVP Southgate was planned to traverse southeast through Alamance County, ending near Haw River. In December, Equitrans Midstream, the pipeline operator, announced it would shorten the route to remain solely within Rockingham County. An updated map has not been released. The southern segment hinges on the completion of the main MVP line. But already years behind schedule and billions of dollars over budget, the main line has again been delayed until the second quarter of this year. This pipeline is regulated by FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, and will need state environmental permits.The green lines show the original route of the MVP Southgate natural gas pipeline. Alamance County is no longer in the project path. However, the pipeline owner has not yet published a new map of the redesigned route. (Base map: MVP Southgate)
• T15 Reliability Project: Dominion Energy recently announced it plans to construct a 45-mile pipeline between Eden and Roxboro. It would connect the MVP Southgate project to Duke Energy’s two proposed natural gas plants at Hyco Lake, which will replace the coal-fired units. The new units are scheduled for completion in about 10 years. Since this pipeline would not cross state lines, it would not require FERC approval, but would be regulated by the N.C. Utilities Commission. However, Dominion would have to secure permits from N.C. Department of Environmental Quality and, if the pipeline crosses navigable rivers, creeks or streams, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.This natural gas pipeline would run from Eden, to north of Reidsville and into Caswell County, where it would traverse north of Yanceyville. Once in Person County, the pipeline would route along an existing electric transmission right-of-way to Duke Energy’s proposed new natural gas plants. (Map: Dominion Energy)
• Southeast Supply Enhancement: Williams Companies, which operates the Transcontinental Pipeline over 10,000 winding miles from Texas, through the Southeast to New York City, plans to expand. The Southeast Supply Enhancement would build additional pipeline looping adjacent to the existing Transco corridor. In addition, three compressor stations, in Cleveland, Iredell and Davidson counties, would be upgraded. The company has set an operational date of late 2027. Since it spans several states, the project will require FERC approval.We’ve also provided a transcript of this presentation about pipelines.Eighty-six counties in North Carolina contain some length of natural gas transmission pipeline; 14 have none. Here is a list of mileage by county.Natural gas pipelines are different from hazardous liquid pipelines; the latter transmits gasoline, diesel and crude oil. Colonial Pipeline is a major carrier of hazardous liquids through North Carolina and owns an enormous tank farm in Guilford County along Interstate 40.

Inside the fight to stop LNG export projects in South… Juan Mancias is chair of the Carrizo/​Comecrudo Tribe of Texas, an Indigenous people whose ancestral lands span the delta region where the 1,900-mile Rio Grande meets the Gulf of Mexico. On a drizzly day in December, we’ve come out to survey the patchwork of parcels the tribe recently purchased near the Bahia Grande tidal basin. These acres of sandy soil and hardy grass run along the proposed route of the Rio Bravo Pipeline — a 137-mile conduit that would funnel shale gas from East and West Texas to a major new fossil-fuel project on the Gulf Coast. Mancias was navigating the neglected county roads near the properties when we became ensnared in mud. By buying up acres of land, the tribe hopes to obstruct the pipeline’s development here and choke off some of the supply to the Rio Grande Liquefied Natural Gas export terminal. The facility, now in the early stages of construction, will super-cool and liquefy gas to be shipped overseas.“They’re trying to justify and redefine everything as ​‘critical infrastructure,’” Mancias says of the fossil-fuel projects. ​“But the real ​‘critical infrastructure’ is the air, the water and the land,” he adds while we await the rescue Jeep. We pass the time by spotting hawks and blue herons and swatting at big mosquitoes that snuck in through the open windows. If completed as planned, NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG export terminal will be one of the largest projects of its kind in the country — accelerating the boom in U.S. LNG exports that’s taken hold over the last decade. The project’s first and largest phase is expected to cost around $18.4 billion to build.The new terminal will also be the first large oil and gas development on this largely unspoiled coastline near the United States–Mexico border. Over the last century, as companies built polluting petrochemical plants atop wetlands in much of Texas and Louisiana, the southeastern tip of Texas has remained a haven for birds, marine life and the thousands of people who live and work on the water. Rio Grande LNG is set to span nearly 1,000 acres along the Brownsville Ship Channel and, at full scale, could produce 27 million metric tons of LNG per year. That’s enough fuel to meet the heating and cooling needs of nearly 34 million U.S. households annually — except that the LNGis destined for other countries. Next door, on a 625-acre stretch of black mangrove, the developer Glenfarne Group is trying to build another export terminal, called Texas LNG.

US weekly LNG exports reach 26 shipments - US liquefaction plants shipped 26 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in the week ending February 28, while natural gas deliveries to these terminals increased compared to the week before. The US EIA said in its weekly natural gas report that 26 LNG carriers departed the US plants between February 22 and February 28, the same as in the week before. Citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, the agency said the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 97 Bcf. Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals increased by 2.2 percent (0.3 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.9 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 3.6 percent (0.3 Bcf/d) to 9 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas were essentially unchanged at 3.7 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were flat week over week at 1.2 Bcf/d. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped nine cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the week under review. Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal and the Freeport LNG terminal each shipped four cargoes during the period, while Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass LNG terminal sent three cargoes. Also, the Cove Point terminal sent two LNG cargoes and the Elba Island LNG terminal did not ship cargoes during the week under review. This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 3 cents from $1.60 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.63/MMBtu this Wednesday. The March 2024 NYMEX contract expired Tuesday at $1.615/MMBtu, down 16 cents from last Wednesday. Moreover, the April 2024 NYMEX contract price increased to $1.885/MMBtu, up 2 cents from last Wednesday to yesterday. According to the agency, the price of the 12-month strip averaging April 2024 through March 2025 futures contracts climbed 9 cents to $2.817/MMBtu. The agency said that international natural gas futures decreased this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia fell 39 cents to a weekly average of $8.26/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF fell 11 cents to a weekly average of $7.64/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending March 1, 2023), the prices were $14.76/MMBtu in East Asia and $15.10/MMBtu at TTF, the agency said.

Tellurian expects to take FID on two Driftwood LNG plants in 2024 - US LNG firm Tellurian said on Monday it expects to take a final investment decision in 2024 to build the first two plants at its Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana. “Plants 1 and 2 are expected to FID in 2024 with plant 3 expected six to nine months thereafter,” the company said in a new presentation posted on its website. Tellurian expects to own 35-40 percent of the first two plants and an “increasing share” of expansion plants. It expects to have a 50 percent ownership in the third plant, 60 percent ownership in the fourth, and 65 percent ownership in the fifth plant. The company also said it expects to issue a full notice to proceed to compatriot engineering and construction giant Bechtel to begin construction for for the first phase of the plant in the second half of this year. Under the first phase, Tellurian aims to build two LNG plants near Lake Charles with an export capacity of up to 11 mtpa. Tellurian issued a limited notice to proceed to Bechtel in March 2022 and it said in August last year that Bechtel completed piling work for the first plant and also concrete pouring for all plant one compressor foundations. The firm claims it invested more than $1 billion in Driftwood with construction of the first two plants about 30 percent advanced. The full project would include five plants with a total capacity of about 27.6 mtpa. Tellurian also said in the presentation that potential expansion options could include a second facility with up to 30 mtpa of capacity.

Tellurian Looks to Start Major Driftwood LNG Construction By Year’s End - Tellurian Inc. has made another executive leadership change, this time choosing to part ways with its CEO, as it tries to fast track development of its Driftwood LNG project. The Houston-based company has been awash in personnel and strategy shifts since December, when its board of directors moved to dismiss co-founder and executive chairman Charif Souki. In the latest shuffle, Tellurian disclosed in a recent filing that the board chose not to renew CEO Octávio Simões’ contract. His current contract expires in June. Tellurian’s other co-founder, Martin Houston, was named executive chairman days earlier.

Delfin Midstream Requests DOE Extension to 2029 for Gulf of Mexico LNG Project - Delfin Midstream Inc. is seeking an additional five years to complete its LNG export project offshore Louisiana, marking one of the first tests of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) stance on extensions since last year. For more than a decade, Houston-based Delfin has been developing a proposed export project offshore Louisiana that would use four floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) vessels with a combined capacity of more than 13 million metric tons/year (mmty). After signing around 5.6 mmty in tentative or binding offtake agreements, Delfin informed DOE that it has more than covered the capacity of the first FLNG vessel and is on its way to fully marketing the second. However, before it begins construction of the vessel, the company said it would need an extension, with...

Commonwealth LNG Pushes Potential FID into 2025 as DOE Pause Adds Uncertainty - A final investment decision (FID) for Commonwealth LNG will have to wait until next year, or even later, as Gulf Coast export project developers continue to adapt to the fallout of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) indefinite authorization pause. Commonwealth LNG LLC, currently developing a self-named export facility near Cameron, LA, was previously expected to reach an FID on the 9 million metric ton/year (mmty) project by the end of March. However, after the Biden administration ordered a pause for non-free trade agreement (FTA) export permits in January, Commonwealth is now expecting an FID could be delayed until at least July 2025. Commonwealth Spokesman Lyle Hanna told NGI the open-ended nature of the pause also has the potential to impact the timing of Commonwealth’s decision.

US natgas prices drop 6% to one-week low on small storage withdrawal, mild weather (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 6% to a one-week low on Thursday on an expected much smaller-than-usual storage withdrawal last week when warmer-than-normal weather kept heating demand low. Traders also noted prices were down as the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained low due to an ongoing outage at Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. That price decline came despite a drop in output over the past month aftergas prices collapsed to a 3-1/2-year low in Februaryand forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Even though the forecasts called for a little more cool in coming weeks, meteorologists forecast the weather across the Lower 48 U.S. states would still remain mostly warmer than normal through at least March 18. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities pulled 40 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended March 1. That was in line with the 40-bcf withdrawal that analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decrease of 72 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average decline of 93 bcf for this time of year. That decrease left gas stockpiles about 31% above normal levels for this time of year. Analysts projected that storage surplus would grow in coming weeks as mild weather keeps heating demand low. "Many analysts are projecting another small withdrawal next week, with some models even reflecting an (unusual) injection into working gas stocks rather than a withdrawal," analysts said in a note. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 11.1 cents, or 5.8%, to settle at $1.818 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since Feb. 27. Prices collapsed to an intraday low of $1.511 per mmBtu on Feb. 27, their lowest since June 2020, as near-record output, mostly mild weather and low heating demand this winter allowed utilities to leave significantly more gas in storage than usual for this time of year.

Enbridge Earmarking More Capital to Build Out Gulf Coast LNG, Oil Infrastructure - With a portfolio of North American projects from which to pick and choose, Enbridge Inc. is zeroing in on the Gulf Coast to advance a plethora of natural gas and oil projects to move more supply overseas. The Enbridge executive team during the annual investor day conference on Wednesday laid out the near-term strategy in New York City. The Calgary-based midstream giant is planning a plethora of investments from Western Canada to the deepwater Gulf of Mexico (GOM) centered around LNG exports, oil infrastructure and natural gas utilities. CEO Greg Ebel shared the stage with his executive team to discuss the broad gas and oil expansions across the continent.

Enbridge to Invest in Midstream Expansion, Pipelines -- Enbridge Inc. said it is making new capital investments in line with its Permian export strategy and gas transmission plans. Enbridge President and CEO Greg Ebel said in a statement Wednesday, “Today we are announcing accretive new capital investments focused on our U.S. Gulf Coast strategy. These include additional export docks and storage tanks at Enbridge Ingleside Energy Center (EIEC) and connecting egress for Shell's Sparta assets offshore of Louisiana's coastline”. “These accretive investments provide near-term growth in the U.S. Gulf Coast and set the stage for the future expansion through high quality partnerships and embedded organic opportunities. In combination with today's announcements, our secured growth backlog sits at $25 billion and is made up of more than 20 highly executable projects”, Ebel noted. The new capital investments include the expansion of the Planning Gray Oak Pipeline of approximately 120,000 barrels per day (bpd), pending a successful open season. The expansion will increase crude capacity throughout Enbridge's entire integrated Permian super system. Enbridge sanctioned 2.5 million barrels of additional storage at EIEC (Phase VII), which will bring overall storage capacity to approximately 20 million barrels by 2025. The timely addition of storage tanks at Ingleside supports higher crude throughput by ensuring customers have on-demand access to their export-ready crude supply, the company said. The company also plans to acquire two marine docks and land from Flint Hills Resources adjacent to the EIEC terminal for around $0.2 billion. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter, subject to receipt of customary regulatory approvals and closing conditions. Enbridge plans to fully integrate the waterfront between EIEC and the newly acquired docks, which will add immediate crude oil export capacity and streamline existing Ingleside operations by increasing very large crude carrier (VLCC) windows on the primary facility docks. Further, the company has sanctioned around $0.2 billion of offshore pipelines to service Shell and Equinor's sanctioned Sparta development. Enbridge and Shell Pipeline have extended their relationship through additional investment in growing Gulf of Mexico offshore plays with a newly formed joint venture, Oceanus Pipeline Company, LLC. "Global demand for affordable, reliable and sustainable energy continues to rise and North America has a critical role to play”, Ebel said. “Abundant, cost-competitive and sustainable conventional and lower carbon energy sources provide people with the energy they need while supporting countries and communities in meeting global emission targets. At Enbridge, we're building out our integrated infrastructure super systems, to enable the continued delivery of energy in a planet-friendly way, everywhere people need it". “Disciplined capital allocation remains a top priority and we are laser focused on protecting the balance sheet. We plan to invest $6-$7 billion annually on secured projects and stay within our target leverage range of 4.5x to 5.0x. When it comes to deploying additional investment capacity, we will live within our means and ensure all investments are accretive on per share metrics, enhance our growth profile and maintain our balance sheet flexibility”, he added. Regarding its planned acquisition of three U.S. gas utilities, Enbridge said it is investing approximately $3 billion annually “in low-risk natural gas utility infrastructure, inclusive of the assumed capital for the acquisitions”. In September 2023, Enbridge entered into three separate definitive agreements with Dominion Energy Inc. to acquire natural gas distribution companies East Ohio Gas Co. (EOG), Public Service Co. of North Carolina Inc. (PSNC), and Questar Gas Co. for an aggregate purchase price of $14 billion (CAD 19 billion), composed of $9.4 billion of cash consideration and $4.6 billion of assumed debt.

Following FERC Approval, Oneok Eyeing Midyear FID for Saguaro Connector Natural Gas Pipeline - Oneok Inc. is aiming to take a final investment decision (FID) by the middle of this year on the 2.8 Bcf/d Saguaro Connector natural gas pipeline. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the project’s Presidential Permit in February. Saguaro Connector would transport Permian Basin natural gas to the U.S.-Mexico border. From there, it would connect with the Sierra Madre pipeline planned by Mexico Pacific Ltd. LLC, and onto Mexico Pacific’s proposed Saguaro Energía LNG export terminal in Puerto Libertad, Sonora. Although it has secured several high-profile offtakers, Mexico Pacific has yet to reach FID on the liquefaction terminal. Saguaro Connector is “the most economic route” for U.S. liquefied natural gas to reach the Asia Pacific market.

West Texas Spot Natural Gas Prices Tank as Pipeline Work Traps Supply - Spot natural gas prices for Wednesday flow at Waha and nearby delivery hubs in West Texas fell into negative territory as pipeline maintenance prevented some gas from leaving the basin and mild, spring-like weather reduced demand. Waha Hub spot prices for next-day delivery tumbled 72.0 cents day/day to minus 54.5 cents. The last time Waha’s spot averaged in the negatives was on Oct. 24, 2023, at minus 24 cents, NGI’s daily historical data show. Elsewhere in the region, an 81.5-cent loss at El Paso Permian sent the average to minus 52.0 cents, and Transwestern tumbled 63.5 cents to minus 53.5 cents, according to NGI daily spot gas price data.

Weekend oil spill, produced water spill reported in North Dakota -- The North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality is inspecting two sites of reported spills in Billings and Burke counties. A crude oil spill of over 75-hundred gallons happened on Friday at Murex Petroleum near Grassy Butte. On Saturday at Formentera Operations southeast of Portal a produced water spill released over 12-thousand-gallons on to agricultural land. The state Department of Environmental Quality will monitor the cleanup and remediation. Tags: North Dakota

BlackRock to Buy TC Energy Natural Gas Pipeline System in $1.14 Billion Deal -- BlackRock Inc. and Morgan Stanley investment funds agreed to buy TC Energy Corp.’s Portland Natural Gas Transmission System in a deal valued at about $1.14 billion as the world’s largest asset manager bulks up in infrastructure. The sale by TC Energy and partner Energir LP to BlackRock’s diversified infrastructure business and investment funds managed by Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners includes the assumption of $250 million in debt. TC Energy said Monday it will reap pretax cash equity proceeds of about C$740 million ($545 million). BlackRock is working to become a player in the expanding market for alternative assets, snapping up Global Infrastructure Partners for about $12.5 billion and investing $500 million in an arm of Canadian Solar Inc. just this year. For TC Energy, the sale moves it closer to achieving a goal of selling C$3 billion in assets this year to reduce its debt. The Portland Natural Gas Transmission System consists of 295 miles (475 kilometers) of natural gas pipelines in northern New England and Atlantic Canada. Barclays provided financial advice to TC Energy and Energir on the sale. Bracewell LLP was legal adviser to TC Energy.

Paramount Resources Shuttering Some Montney Dry Natural Gas, Reducing ‘24 Forecast - Western Canada independent Paramount Resources Ltd. has curtailed some of its natural gas production in Western Canada amid the low price environment. The independent, whose development is focused in the Montney Shale region, has shut in dry gas production and reduced its forecast 2024 average sales volumes by about 2,250 boe/d. The “company continues to closely monitor market conditions and may restore or further reduce production as conditions warrant,” management said in its recent quarterly results. Paramount cut its 2024 forecast to a range of 100,000 boe/d to 106,000 boe/d (47% liquids), which is 9,000 boe/d lower at the midpoint than prior guidance.

Mexico Natural Gas Market Undergoing Restructure Amid Sub-$2 Prices – Spotlight - North American natural gas prices got a bump earlier in the week when top U.S. producer EQT Corp. announced it was curtailing output, but the rally was short-lived. On Thursday, the New York Mercantile Exchange contract for April settled at $1.818/MMBtu, down 11.1 cents day/day. Mexico pipeline imports of natural gas for the 10-day period through Thursday were 6.83 Bcf/d, according to NGI figures. West Texas flows have dimmed in March amid prices that again went negative this month. Wood Mackenzie analyst Kara Ozgen said the West Texas cash weakness aligns with an apparent drop in flows on the intrastate Whistler Pipeline on Tuesday. Ozgen also forecast “more weakness ahead at Waha a month from now” with Gulf Coast Express Pipeline LLC conducting maintenance in April and..

LNG Exports from Mexico in Limbo While Pipeline Project Plows Ahead - Mexico anticipates exporting liquified natural gas for the first time this year. But prospects for the country’s nascent LNG industry—where each export terminal requires more than one billion dollars in investment—have cooled following the Biden administration’s pause in January on new export permits.The Department of Energy issues permits for LNG terminals in Mexico that would re-export natural gas from the United States. On Jan. 26, the Biden administration announced a pause in pending permits for LNG export to non-free trade countries while the DOE updates its economic and environmental analyses for these projects. The move came after increasing public pressure to reject new LNG export permits in places like the Gulf Coast. The new analysis is expected later this year. Meanwhile, projects in Mexico waiting on permits, or seeking additional export capacity, are now in limbo. At least four LNG export projects on Mexico’s Pacific Coast are impacted by the pause, and another three on the Gulf Coast. Mexico is already the biggest importer of natural gas from the U.S. If proposed LNG export facilities go forward, it could also become a major player in the global LNG market. But it remains to be seen whether additional scrutiny from U.S. regulators will scare off investors or merely slow down the rise of LNG exports from Mexico. For now, the pause is encouraging environmental advocates in Mexico who question the country’s reliance on U.S. natural gas and the climate impacts of LNG exports. “The fact that Biden paused these projects, and that he used a climate argument to do so, is good news,” said Pablo Ramírez, a climate and energy campaigner for Greenpeace Mexico. “But we don’t know just how good that news will be for Mexico.”Other advocates worry that natural gas export capacity will continue to rise despite the pause. Houston-based Mexico Pacific Limited’s proposed Saguaro Energía terminal would export LNG from the coast of Sonora to Asia. The facility will now face additional review as it seeks more export capacity. But in February the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved the pipeline that would cross from Texas into Mexico to transport gas to the proposed export facility.“At a time when the Biden administration is saying we need to take a closer look at the public interest factors that go into these gas exports, here we have the FERC essentially ignoring that,” said Doug Hayes, a senior attorney with the Sierra Club.The eight facilities already exporting LNG from the United States are unaffected by the recent pause. But in Mexico, the announcement comes as the country prepares to export LNG for the first time. Thanks to its proximity to the Permian Basin and other Texas oilfields, Mexico’s imports of U.S. natural gas have already skyrocketed in recent years.The proposed LNG export projects in Mexico that have received or applied for non-free trade country export permits have a combined total capacity of 60.8 million metric tons per year, according to global ship brokerage Poten & Partners. According to industry data, the United States exported 88.9 million metric tons of LNG during 2023, an all-time high.As fracking revolutionized the oil and gas industry, Texas produced a glut of cheap natural gas. Exporting to Mexico was a logical next step. Energy reforms in 2014 opened Mexico to more foreign investment and free trade agreements facilitated natural gas exports. Companies like TC Energy, an infrastructure company based in Calgary, formerly known as TransCanada, and Energy Transfer Partners, one of North America’s largest midstream energy companies, built an extensive network of pipelines crossing from Texas into Northern Mexico and the center of the country.By 2022, imports from the United States met 69 percent of the demand for natural gas in Mexico, according to Mexico’s Secretary of Energy. “Mexico has had access to a relatively stable, affordable and substantial supply of natural gas,” saidDiego Rivera Rivota, a senior research associate at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy who previously worked as an advisor to Mexico’s state-owned utility. “This has been good news for Mexican users… but now we are in a situation in which Mexico is heavily dependent on these imports.”As Mexico imported more natural gas, U.S. LNG exports from the Gulf Coast to Europe and beyond soared from 2016 on. But to reach growing markets in Asia, LNG tankers departing from the Gulf Coast had to pass through the Panama Canal. Meanwhile, efforts to build LNG export facilities on the west coast of the U.S., such as Jordan Cove on Coos Bay in Southwest Oregon, foundered.

Peru LNG terminal sent four cargoes in February - Peru LNG’s liquefaction plant at Pampa Melchorita has shipped four liquefied natural gas cargoes in February, one less shipment compared to the previous month. According to the shipment data by state-owned Perupetro, during February the 4.4 mtpa LNG plant sent three shipments each to South Korea and one shipment to Japan.The shipments loaded onboard the LNG carriers Maran Gas Hydra, Maran Gas Achilles, Maran Gas Roxana, and Malaga Knutsen equal about 301,227 tonnes, the data shows.These four LNG cargoes loaded at the Peru LNG plant in February compare to five cargoes in February last year, while Peru LNG shipped five cargoes in January 2024.The 135,423-cbm, Seapeak Madrid, also departed the Peru LNG plant on March 3, its AIS data shows.Peru LNG increased its exports last year compared to the year before, and it also expects to boost the number of shipments in 2024.The terminal loaded 55 vessels in 2023, compared to 51 vessels in 2022.Peru LNG said that the main destinations in 2023 were United Kingdom and South Korea, and also Japan, China, Spain, France, Netherlands, and Canada.

Spot LNG shipping rates down, European and Asian prices up - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet decreased this week, while European and Asian prices rose compared to the week before. Last week, Atlantic spot LNG freight rates dropped below $50,000 per day as the spot fixing window moved into the seasonally softer Q2 period. “Spark freight rates fell further this week, with the Spark30S Atlantic spot rate falling by $2,000 to $47,750 per day, and the Spark25S Pacific rate falling by $4,750 per day to $53,500 per day,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst, told LNG Prime on Friday. He said these are the lowest freight rates reported since June 2023. LNG freight rates are continuing to decrease despite the fact that LNG carriers are still avoiding the Suez Canal due to the situation in the Red Sea. Since January, LNG carriers, including Qatari vessels delivering LNG shipments to Europe, are favoring the Cape of Good Hope for safer passage. Kpler said previously that the Suez Canal has witnessed no LNG transits since January 17. In addition, due to a drought situation impacting the Panama Canal, LNG transits through the waterway keep declining as well. Official data previously showed that LNG transits dropped to 326 in fiscal 2023 from 374 in 2022 and 537 in 2021. In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month rose compared to the last week. The NWE DES LNG for March delivery was assessed last week at $6.858/MMBtu. “The SparkNWE DES LNG price is reported at $7.401/MMBtu, corresponding to a $0.543/MMBtu week-on-week increase,” Afghan said. “This is the first week-on-week increase in 4 weeks, and the largest weekly gain since October 2023,” he said. Levels of gas in storages in Europe remain high for this time of the year due to mild weather. Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that gas storages in the EU were 62.78 percent full on February 28. Gas storages were 64.69 percent full on February 22. This week, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, rose when compared to the last week, according to Platts data. JKM for April settled at $8.370/MMBtu on Thursday. According to Platts, Chinese buyers are buying spot LNG cargoes due to low prices and to rebuild inventory after the Lunar New Year holiday.

U.S. Production Cuts Help Lift European Natural Gas Prices – European natural gas prices continued climbing higher on Tuesday, lifted partly by the largest U.S. gas producer’s decision to curb output significantly this quarter. The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gained across the curve, with the prompt month adding another 4% to finish about a quarter shy of $9/MMBtu on Tuesday. EQT Corp.’s announcement on Monday to cut 1 Bcf/d of its U.S. gas production through the end of March helped support TTF’s momentum as it followed other commodity prices higher. The contract gained 7% last week and another 4% on Monday. Engie EnergyScan analysts said weaker renewables output, an increase in coal and U.S. gas prices, and profit taking have pushed TTF higher in recent days. In the United States, the April Henry Hub contract added another 2%...

More Israeli Natural Gas Could Reach Global Markets Via Egyptian LNG Facilities - -Natural gas output from Israel is again poised to increase as Chevron Corp. and its partners plan to invest more in the Tamar field, raising prospects for additional Eastern Mediterranean volumes to reach the global market via Egyptian liquefaction facilities. Tamar’s production is set to go from 1.2 Bcf/d to nearly 1.6 Bcf/d now that Chevron has reached a final investment decision (FID) to expand Tamar’s production and export capacity by 2025. Last month, Israeli energy minister Eli Cohen said “dramatic growth” in gas exports to Egypt and Jordan are a strategic asset for Israel and the region. But how much Israeli gas Egypt designates for LNG exports depends on its domestic gas demand. Chevron’s FID came after the Tamar partners signed a new gas sales agreement with Blue Ocean Energy. Per the agreement, the Tamar partners will sell an additional 4 billion cubic metres (BCM) of natural gas per year to Egypt for a duration of 11 years.

Oil spill from capsized barge near Tobago soils beaches hundreds of miles away - -- An offshore oil spill that prompted Trinidad and Tobago to declare a national emergency earlier this month involves hundreds of thousands of gallons of fuel, some of which has reached the shores of the Dutch Caribbean island of Bonaire hundreds of miles away, authorities said. This is the first estimate of the size of the spill, and the first sign of how far the leaked oil has traveled. A minimum of 420,000 gallons (1.6 million liters) of oil mixed with water have been vacuumed near Tobago where a barge capsized, officials announced Wednesday. However, they warned the number is likely larger since it does not include oil picked up with sand and sargassum. “A substantial amount of this material found its way out of Tobago as well,” said Farley Augustine, chief secretary of the Tobago House of Assembly. “It’s hard to estimate precisely how much leaked out of the vessel.” Augustine warned that “a spill of this size” would take up to eight months to be fully cleaned, with waste-management efforts taking more than a year and remediation efforts such as replanting mango trees and repopulating ecosystems taking up to three years. “We are in this for the long haul,” he said at a press conference. Officials have not provided a preliminary estimate of the damage the spill caused, noting the investigation is ongoing. Augustine said the government has some leads but declined to share details: “We will have sufficient time to prosecute this matter, and we most definitely will.” The oil spill was blamed on an overturned barge that had departed from Panama and was being tugged to nearby Guyana when it began to sink, according to a preliminary investigation. The owner of the barge has not been identified. Allan Stewart, director of Tobago's emergency management agency, said rugged terrain and cliffs in Lambeau and parts of Scarborough in the island's southern region have complicated cleanup efforts. He said the local government also needs more personal protective equipment as well as water and detergent to wash the one currently in use. In addition, officials need more frac tanks. “We are running out of space in terms of containment,” Stewart said. Meanwhile, government officials in Bonaire said the oil poses a “serious threat” to the island and its nature including its mangroves, fish and corals. The oil washed up in areas along the island's east coast despite efforts to contain it, the government statement said Monday. Bonaire is more than 500 miles (830 kilometers) east of Tobago, where the spill occurred. Augustine said local and international experts working to contain and clean up the spill have not identified any leak from the barge in days, but the danger may not be over. “It may very well have other compartments that...have not leaked as of yet,” he said, adding that crews are still probing the barge. Trinidad and Tobago’s Ministry of Energy said Tuesday that crews completed an investigative hydrographic survey of the wreck to allow officials to create a map of the seabed and other data around the wreck, which foreign experts are helping to remove. Crews are working to contain and collect the oil, officials said. Environmental activists have questioned who will pay for the cleanup costs and demanded help for fishermen whose livelihood and equipment were affected. Augustine said relief efforts will start Friday, with the government distributing vouchers to those affected so they can buy groceries.

Joint investigation points to identity of tug owner involved in Tobago oil spill - In the hunt to find the owners of a tug and a barge responsible for one of the Caribbean’s worst oil spills in recent years, a joint investigation carried out by Bellingcat and the Trinidad & Tobago Guardian has laid the finger of blame on a Panama-registered company called Melaj Offshore. According to Bellingcat, a Netherlands-based investigative journalism group, and ship registration documents provided by the Zanzibar Maritime Authority, the listed owner of the Tanzania-registered, 1976-built tug Solo Creed which accompanied the Gulfstream barge during its disastrous journey was Melissa Rona Gonzalez, an official of Melaj Offshore Corporation. The authority confirmed that the period of registration for the tug includes the start of the journey on December 30, 2023, until it abandoned the Gulfstream barge on or around February 6. The registration period expired on February 29. The Panamanian corporate registry shows that Gonzalez is an officer of Melaj Offshore and that the power of attorney for the firm belongs to her husband, Augustine Jackson. The tug and the barge have a history of towing Venezuelan oil. The barge’s final, fateful voyage saw it take some 35,000 barrels of oil on a voyage that was meant to end in Guyana, but along the way, the barge ran into difficulties. After the 48-year-old barge capsized off the coast of Tobago, the oil slick spread hundreds of kilometres west and reached the east coast of the Dutch Caribbean island of Bonaire and later Aruba and Grenada. Curaçao is another island currently on alert. Last Friday, Bonaire’s acting governor Nolly Oleana said that clean-up efforts are in full swing. Oil has washed up periodically on the island’s eastern coastlines but has not made it to the dive sites and heavily trafficked tourist areas on the island’s western side. She has pointed out that more oil could spill into several inlets on the island. The island officials are working with the government of Trinidad and Tobago regarding compensation for the spill. “We are in contact with Trinidad and Tobago. Together, we do want to prosecute. A legal expert from the Netherlands is in contact with a lawyer from Trinidad and Tobago. We both just don’t know who owns the ship yet. And we also don’t know who owns the oil product on the ship. Once this is known, follow-up steps will be taken,” Orellana said.

CAF approves US$250,000 for Tobago oil spill --CAF–Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean–has approved a donation of US$250,000 to Trinidad and Tobago to alleviate the effects of the oil spill that has affected the coast of Tobago.A release from CAF yesterday posted online by the Ministry of Finance said that in a letter from executive president of CAF Sergio Díaz-Granados to Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley, Díaz-Granados announced the immediate donation.“CAF stands in solidarity with T&T and offers all its technical and financial tools to support the Government in facing the effects of the oil spill on the country’s coasts and achieving a prompt solution to the problem,” said Díaz-Granados.The release added that CAF aims to contribute through the appropriate channels deemed by the Government.It also reiterated its commitment as a “strategic ally for the development of its member countries”.Responding to Díaz-Granados’ letter was Minister of Finance Colm Imbert, who said he was “very appreciative and truly grateful” for the financial and moral support extended by CAF.

CPCL leaks oil deliberately, alleges WRD - The state water resources department (WRD) has alleged that the CPCL (Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited) deliberately leaks the oil through its pipeline during the monsoon periods and urged Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board (TNPCB) to ensure no such actions happen in the future. In a status report submitted to the southern bench of National Green Tribunal (NGT), which is hearing a suo motu case regarding Ennore oil spill, WRD said that the CPCL premises is at a much lower elevation compared to Buckingham Canal bund level, “which would have caused {ooding in the CPCL campus contradicting with the statement of CPCL having an adequately well-designed storm water system which tackled the 2015 monsoon deluge.” Also Read - Ajith to be discharged from hospital today, treated for cerebellar infarction  Saying that the peak discharge capacity of the Kosasthalaiyar river at the tail end is 1,25,000 cusecs, the WRD claimed that it had released only 45,000 cusecs. Earlier, CPCL submitted that the reznery was inundated to a height of one metre owing to the excess water of around 45,000 cusecs released from Poondi and Puzhal reservoirs. “This {ooding caused the {ood waters to mix with oil reznery, in order to ensure their CPCL premises devoid of oil spilled {ood water, CPCL would have discharged this surplus {ood waters into the nearby water bodies such as the Redhills surplus course and the North Buckingham Canal, “ WRD alleged. Pointing out that the oil spill has caused severe environmental damage, WRD said that the petroleum manufacturing enterprises such as Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) adjoining the Ennore Creek were developed on the wetlands and Salt Pan lands. These wetlands would have once acted as a {ood- buffer during {ood circumstances several decades ago before the development of BPCL and HPCL. “It is further respectfully submitted that CPCL deliberately engages in leaking the oil through its pipelines during the monsoon periods which was visualised by the oil {oating at top surface of the Buckingham Canal. The dilution of the Canal during monsoon makes it easier for CPCL to deliberately leak the oil into the Buckingham Canal. The periodical inspections have to be carried out by the Tamil Nadu Pollution Control Board to ensure that no such environmental havoc happens in the future, thereby safeguarding the natural ecosystem and livelihood of the zshermen in the Ennore creek, “ WRD told the NGT.

Oil prices slip after OPEC+ extends voluntary oil output cuts Oil prices fell Monday after oil cartel OPEC+ agreed to extend voluntary output reductions until the second quarter, in an effort to support the short-term stability of crude markets. Global benchmark Brent fell 75 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $82.80 a barrel Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures lost $1.23, or 1.54%, to settle at $78.74 per barrel. OPEC+ announced on Sunday that the 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary output cuts that were planned for the first quarter of this year will continue into the next quarter. "As market expectations for a rollover had grown more apparent recently, we believe the extension may have been increasingly priced in," OPEC+ kingpin and de facto leader Saudi Arabia said it will prolong its voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of the second quarter, state-owned Saudi Press Agency said Sunday. Riyadh's crude production will stand at approximately 9 million barrels per day until the end of June. "With OPEC loadings appearing steady and aggregate OPEC supply potentially showing little effect from incremental voluntary cuts implemented in Q1, we do not view the extensions from the broader group as particularly impactful," Chancellor wrote. Russia, another OPEC+ heavyweight, will slash its production and export supplies by a combined 471,000 barrels per day until the end of June. Moscow had volunteered to reduce its supplies by 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter. Other key producers Iraq and UAE will also extend their voluntary production cuts of 220,000 barrels per day and 163,000 barrels per day respectively, until the end of the second quarter. "This new move by OPEC+ clearly shows strong unity within the group, something that was put into question after the November ministerial meeting, which saw Angola leaving OPEC," Rystad Energy's Senior Vice President Jorge Leon wrote in a note following the oil cartel's decision. The extension signals "robust determination" to defend a price floor above $80 per barrel in the second quarter, he said, adding that if OPEC+ rapidly unwound the cuts, oil prices will drop to $77 per barrel in May. "Such a move by OPEC+ might also be seen as a sign that demand prospects in the second quarter are less optimistic than the group thought in November last year," he said. Oil prices have been languishing in a narrow $75 to $85 per barrel range since the start of the year, in spite of OPEC+ supply cuts, persistent Houthi maritime attacks in the Red Sea artery and ongoing geopolitical risks from Israel's war against Hamas.

An Inside Trading Day on Monday Following the Widely Expected Extension of Voluntary Output Cuts The oil market posted an inside trading day on Monday following the widely expected extension of voluntary output cuts through the middle of the year by OPEC+. On Sunday, OPEC+ decided to extend their voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million bpd into the second quarter to cushion the market. The crude market also saw some retracement of Friday’s gains as pressures are mounting for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The market posted a high of $80.41 in overnight trading, failing to trade higher after the OPEC+ announcement as the market had already priced in an extension of the output cuts. The oil market continued to trend lower and sold off to a low of $78.56 in afternoon trading as the U.S. said a temporary ceasefire in Gaza was essential to a hostage deal and called on Hamas to accept the terms currently on the table. The April WTI contract settled down $1.23 at $78.74 and the May Brent contract settled down 75 cents at $82.80. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market leading them lower amid above normal temperatures seen in the Midwest and Northeast. The heating oil market settled down 5.7 cents at $2.6472 and the RB market settled down 2.87 cents at $2.5857. OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, on Sunday agreed to extend voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million bpd into the second quarter, giving extra support to the market amid concerns over global growth and increasing output outside the group. Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary cut of 1 million bpd through the end of June, leaving its output at around 9 million bpd. Russia will cut its oil production and exports by an extra 471,000 bpd in the second quarter. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak gave new figures showing that cuts from production will make up an increasing proportion of the measure. He said in April, Russia will reduce output by an extra 350,000 bpd, with exports cut by 121,000 bpd. In May, the extra output cut will be 400,000 bpd and exports cut by 71,000 bpd. In June, all the additional cuts will be from oil output. Saudi state news agency SPA said the cuts would be reversed gradually, according to market conditions. For the second quarter, Iraq will extend its 220,000 bpd output cut, UAE will keep in place its 163,000 bpd output cut and Kuwait will maintain its 135,000 bpd output cut. Algeria also said it would cut by 51,000 bpd and Oman by 42,000 bpd. Kazakhstan said it will extend its voluntary cuts of 82,000 bpd through the second quarter. According to Reuters calculations, the total OPEC+ pledged cuts since 2022 stand at about 5.86 million bpd, equal to about 5.7% of daily world demand. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on April 3rd to review market conditions and assess members’ production data, while output policy for the second half of the year will be discussed on June 1st.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.6 million bpd of capacity in the week ending March 8th, increasing available refining capacity by 284,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 712,000 bpd in the week ending March 15th. According to the draft text of a funding bill, the U.S. may sell its 1 million barrel Northeast gasoline reserve in fiscal year 2024. The proceeds from the sale of the refined products in the reserve would be deposited into the Treasury’s general fund. The bill stipulates that once the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve is closed, the secretary of energy cannot establish any new regional petroleum product reserve unless funding is explicitly requested in advance of an annual budget submitted by the president and approved by Congress.

Oil slips as China reforms underwhelm despite OPEC+ support - Oil slipped for a second day on Tuesday as concern over China’s plan for growth and uncertainty over the pace of U.S. interest rate cuts offset the prospect of a tighter market due to continued OPEC+ supply restraint. China set an economic growth target for 2024 of around 5%, similar to last year’s goal and in line with analysts’ expectations, but the lack of big ticket stimulus plans to prop up its struggling economy disappointed investors. Brent crude fell 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.38 a barrel by 1213 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $78.35. Brent has gained about 7% this year. “Public enemy No 1 of a protracted rally and the $90 oil price is the uncertainty surrounding interest rate cuts,” said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM, who added that concern over China’s growth target was adding downward pressure. The U.S. Federal Reserve is under no urgent pressure to cut interest rates given a “prospering” economy and job market, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was reported on Monday as saying. Oil inches lower amid profit taking on OPEC+ cut extension Some support came from the prospect of a tighter market after members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday extended their voluntary oil output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) into the second quarter. “The market has been moving higher in recent weeks amid improving fundamentals. Rising spot prices indicate the physical market has begun to tighten amid a host of other supply-side disruptions,” analysts at ANZ said in a note on Monday. Even so, the latest round of U.S. inventory reports are expected to show crude stocks increased about 2.6 million barrels last week, while distillates and gasoline stockpiles are forecast to decline.

Oil Softens as Traders Eye Crude Build, Fall in Services -- Oil futures settled lower for the second straight session on Tuesday following a pair of U.S. macroeconomic reports showing the economy might have slowed more than previously expected during the first quarter, spurring bets for an earlier start to a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve. Business activity across the U.S. services sector, accounting for roughly 70% of gross domestic product, unexpectedly cooled in February, according to data released Tuesday morning by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). While still in expansion territory, ISM Services Index eased to the lowest reading since November 2023 at 52.6, which was 0.8% below January. Interestingly, the Employment Index contracted for the second time in three months in February with a reading of 48%, a 2.5% decrease from 50.5% recorded in January. Similar labor dynamics are already evident in the goods-producing side of the economy, which has remained in recession for 16 consecutive months through February. The employment sub-index in ISM Manufacturing deteriorated to 45.9% last month. Fresh macroeconomic data might suggest the U.S. labor market, which has provided bedrock support for economic growth in recent years, might be weakening under the weight of high-interest rates. Investors will get a deeper look at labor market dynamics with weekly unemployment claims due out Thursday morning and February's non-farm employment report scheduled for a Friday morning release. January factory orders sank to -3.6% in January from a downward revised 0.3% drop in December, underpinned by weak consumer demand for manufactured durable goods and transportation equipment. New orders for manufactured goods in January were down three of the last four months. Separately, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories likely increased for a sixth consecutive week through March 1 amid a laggard return of domestic refinery utilization following the lingering effects of bad weather on refinery operations in January, unscheduled shutdowns and seasonal maintenance. A consensus of analysts surveyed by the Wall Street Journal said commercial oil stocks increased 1.3 million barrels (bbl) last week following a 4.2 million bbl build reported in the previous week. Refinery capacity use is expected to have risen 1% to 82.5%, according to the survey. Over the last four weeks, U.S. refiners processed an average of 14.657 million barrels per day (bpd), 449,000 bpd less than the comparable four-week average period in 2023. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate April futures on NYMEX retreated $0.59 to $78.15 bbl, continuing a retreat from Friday's $80.85 four-month high on the spot continuous chart. International crude benchmark Brent for May delivery declined $0.76 to $82.04 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures fell back $0.0529 to $2.5328 gallon, and April ULSD futures declined $0.0407 for a $2.6065 gallon settlement.

WTI Extends Gains After Big Product Draws, Crude Production Cut -Oil prices are rising this morning after Saudi Arabia unexpectedly increased prices of its main grade to buyers in Asia and broader financial markets rebounded from Monday’s losses.Traders will be closely watching Powell's testimony before the House Financial Services Committee for more detail on the possible timing of interest rate cuts that the market is expecting this year."Public enemy No 1 of a protracted rally and the $90/bbl oil price is the uncertainty surrounding interest rate cuts," "The Fed chair's testimony and the ECB interest rate decision on Thursday could revive hopes for a June reduction in borrowing costs," Varga said.Crude was supported technically (at its 200DMA) and by last night's smaller than expected crude build. API

• Crude +423k (+1.3mm exp)
• Cushing +500k
• Gasoline -2.8mm (-1.4mm exp)
• Distillates -1.8mm (-400k exp)

DOE

• Crude +1.37mm (+1.3mm exp)
• Cushing +701k
• Gasoline -4.46mm (-1.4mm exp) - biggest draw since Nov
• Distillates -4.13mm (-400k exp) - biggest draw since May

Large product draws dominated the official data with a crude build that met expectations...

Oil price news: oil rises near 2024 high on signs of growing U.S. gasoline demand - Oil climbed to near its highs for the year after a U.S. report showed signs of rising fuel demand heading into the summer driving season. West Texas Intermediate rose 1.3 per cent to top US$79 a barrel after government figures showed U.S. gasoline inventories falling 4.46 million barrels last week. That built off an earlier gain driven by Saudi Arabia’s decision to raise prices to Asia and a rally in equities as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke to Congress. U.S. crude prices have tested the $80 psychological level for the last few sessions, but have been unable to push through it decisively. Yet now that WTI has had a “clean break” above $79 a barrel, “the technical path of least resistance has been confirmed to the upside,” said Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at City Index and Forex.com. Embedded Image Crude prices have been on a slow and steady grind higher this year, supported by the OPEC+ cutbacks, tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, including a strike on a commodity ship on Wednesday. The creeping pace of gains has crushed market volatility, and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies agreed on Sunday to extend their existing output cuts to the end of June, potentially tightening the market and drawing down stockpiles. Signs of tightness in the physical market are apparent, with near-term futures for U.S. benchmark WTI strengthening to a premium of as much as $1 over later-dated barrels. That’s near the highest in four months, excluding volatile contract-expiration dates. WTI for April delivery climbed 1.3 per cent to $79.13 a barrel in New York. Brent for May settlement rose 1.1 per cent to settle at $82.96 a barrel.

Oil Mixed as US Dollar Retreats Ahead of Employment Report - Oil futures nearest delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Brent crude traded on the Intercontinental Exchange settled Thursday's session mixed as the U.S. dollar retreated and stocks on Wall Street rose to all-time highs ahead of Friday's employment report. Investors are betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates as early as June. The U.S. dollar extended losses into the fifth consecutive session on Thursday, having lost 0.45% against a basket of foreign currencies as market participants balanced weaker-than-expected U.S. economic data against dovish comments from the Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell. "If the economy does as expected, we will think carefully about removing the restrictive policy stance over the course of this year. I am waiting to be more confident; we are not far from it," noted Powell at the hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee. He further noted the number of rate cuts will depend on the development of the economy, recalling that the Fed's latest projections indicate a median preference for three rate cuts in 2024. So far, macroeconomic data for the January-February period came in on the softer side with business activity in both manufacturing and services slowing at a faster rate under pressure from high interest rates. Investors will next shift focus to Friday's Non-Farm Employment report, scheduled for 7:30 a.m. CST release, with economists anticipating 190,000 new jobs added in February, down from January's robust addition of 353,000 jobs. Analysts attribute the anticipated deceleration to seasonal adjustments and an uptick in jobless claims. As a precursor to the Non-Farm Employment report, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) data released earlier this week showed softer-than-expected private employment growth. In February, private employers added 140,000 jobs, a figure that fell short of the anticipated 150,000 mark. Thursday's mixed settlements also follow a bullish inventory report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, showing total U.S. commercial petroleum stocks declined by 5.5 million barrels (bbl) last week as demand for refined fuels rebounded sharply, suggesting driving and industrial activity is picking up momentum into the spring months. U.S. gasoline consumption jumped by 546,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the previous week to 9.013 million bpd -- the highest levels since mid-December 2023, which marked one of the busiest holiday travel seasons. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimates the 12-month moving average of total vehicle miles traveled in the U.S. in December 2023 nearly matched pre-pandemic levels. For distillate fuel oil, consumption also rose above 4 million bpd for the first time this year, up by 538,000 bpd from the previous week's average. On a four-week average level, U.S. distillate demand has fallen in line with year-ago levels but remains 14.4% below 2022 levels for the seasonal period and 7% below 2019 levels. Commercial crude oil stockpiles increased for the sixth consecutive week through March 1, up 1.4 million bbl from the previous week to 448.5 million bbl. U.S. refinery inputs averaged 15.3 million bpd last week, which was 595,000 bpd more than the previous week's average. Domestic refiners raised run rates 3.4% in the reviewed week to 84.9% of capacity compared with expectations for a 1% gain. Domestic crude oil production unexpectedly decreased by 100,000 bpd from a record high 13.3 million bpd, lending further price support for the oil complex. At settlement, West Texas Intermediate April futures on NYMEX eased $0.20 to $78.93 bbl and the international crude benchmark Brent for May delivery settled unchanged at $82.96 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures settled modestly higher at $2.5548 gallon, and April ULSD futures advanced $0.0258 for a $2.6891 gallon.

Expectations That U.S. Interest Rate Cuts Could Be Delayed Against Supportive Chinese Trade Data and Increased Tensions in the Middle East - The oil market posted an inside trading day on Thursday as it weighed expectations that U.S. interest rate cuts could be delayed against supportive Chinese trade data and increased tensions in the Middle East after the first fatal attack on Red Sea shipping. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement that continued progress on lowering inflation “is not assured” continued to weigh on market sentiment. The crude market posted a low of $78.02 by mid-morning. However, it bounced off its low and rallied to a high of $79.53 in afternoon trading. The market’s losses were limited by the continuing tension in the Middle East. The oil market later erased some of its gains ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled down 20 cents at $78.93, while the May Brent contract settled unchanged at $82.96. The product markets ended in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 3.14 cents at $2.6947 and the RB market settling up 9 points at $2.5548. According to Kuwait Petroleum Corp’s Chief Executive Officer, Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah, global oil consumption is strong and the market looks relatively balanced this year as OPEC+ tries to stabilize prices. He said the market is expected to tighten further as the year goes on. He added that U.S. shale production has helped meet some of the recent growth in demand. He sees room for growth in both OPEC+ production and U.S. shale production in the long-term as consumption increases. He said Kuwait plans to increase production capacity to 4 million bpd by 2035. In regards to Kuwait’s new Al-Zour refinery, he said the refinery’s operating rate has been increased to its full capacity of 615,000 bpd, producing mostly diesel-like fuels. It is selling mostly distillates from the refinery, with most product going to Europe. The head of the IEA’s oil markets and industry division, Toril Bosoni, said the global oil market is relatively well supplied this year with demand growth slowing, while supply is increasing from the Americas. She said the IEA expects “relatively calm markets” even though OPEC recently decided to extend supply cuts. Palestinian militant group Hamas said its delegation left Cairo on Thursday during ongoing negotiations for a temporary ceasefire with Israel, making it unlikely a deal will be reached before the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. India's navy evacuated all 20 crew from a stricken vessel in the Red Sea on Thursday, after a Houthi attack killed three seafarers in the first civilian fatalities from the militant group’s campaign against the key shipping route. The Iran-aligned militants fired a missile at the Barbados-flagged, Greek-operated True Confidence on Wednesday about 50 nautical miles off the southern Yemeni port of Aden, setting it ablaze. S&P Global Commodity Insights is forecasting some 2.0-2.1 million b/d of U.S. refining capacity will be offline in March, basically unchanged from the 2.05 million b/d of capacity offline in February.

Oil Advances After Canada-US Keystone Pipeline Briefly Halts-- Oil rose after services were briefly suspended at the Keystone pipeline, a crucial conduit carrying Canadian crude to the US.West Texas Intermediate futures climbed as much as 0.8% in early trading after a modest decline on Thursday, when Brent crude closed near $83. Operator TC Energy Corp. confirmed the pipeline’s integrity in a statement, adding that service was temporarily suspended “as a precautionary measure” and that no crude was released.Oil has traded in a relatively narrow range this year, with cutbacks by OPEC+ and rising tensions in the Middle East and Red Sea countered by surging supply from producers outside the cartel including the US. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggesting the central bank is getting close to the confidence it needs to start lowering interest rates were also supportive.China’s oil demand, meanwhile, has entered a low-growth phase as the nation shifts away from fossil fuels, the country’s biggest energy producer said. While overall consumption will continue to grow, increased take-up of electric vehicles and trucks powered by liquefied natural gas will eat into gasoline and diesel use this year, Lu Ruquan, president of China National Petroleum Corp.’s Economics & Technology Research Institute, told Bloomberg Television.

Oil Deepens Losses After Mixed US Employment Report - Oil futures accelerated losses in the afternoon session Friday, sending the West Texas Intermediate April contract towards $78 bbl after a mixed U.S. employment report showed stronger-than-expected job growth in February was accompanied by softer wage gains and a rising unemployment rate, which has reinforced the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in coming months. The U.S. labor market added 275,000 new jobs last month, even as the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to a 2-year high of 3.9%, according to data released this morning from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the headline figure exceeded market expectations for a 190,000-gain, that was only after the previous two months of payroll data was revised lower by 167,000. Additionally, average hourly earnings eased to 0.1% month-on-month, down sharply from a 0.6% gain at the start of the year, suggesting that the January surge in pay was an anomaly rather than a sustained trend. "The bottom line for policymakers and most economists, this employment report doesn't contain much new information. If you think that the labor market is too hot, you will point to the headline number and increased hours worked; if you believe that the labor market is softening, you will point to the revisions and hourly earnings," said Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens College, Cambridge, and chief economic advisor at Allianz to Bloomberg TV. However, financial markets, that are biased towards rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, appear to favor the report as it supports the case for easing monetary policy. More than 50% of investors anticipate the Federal Open Market Committee will make its first move on rates in June, followed by three more rate cuts in July, September, and December. In his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee yesterday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reinforced the narrative that interest rates are on the way down "sometime this year." "If the economy does as expected, we think carefully removing the restrictive stance of policy will begin over the course of the year," Powell said. He further noted that the number of rate cuts will depend on the development of the economy, recalling that the Fed's latest projections indicate a median preference for three rate cuts in 2024. On Friday, the U.S. dollar index continued its week-long retreat against foreign currencies, having fallen below the 200-day moving average of 103.543, but this failed to lend price support for the prompt-month West Texas Intermediate futures contract. WTI April contract on NYMEX declined $0.92 bbl to settle at $78.1 bbl, while international crude benchmark Brent for May delivery shed $0.88 bbl to $82.08 bbl. NYMEX April RBOB futures fell back to $2.5272 gallon, down $0.0276 gallon, and April ULSD futures eroded $0.0538 to $2.6409 gallon.

Oil prices post weekly loss as China demand weighs on market -- Crude oil futures posted a weekly loss as lackluster demand out of China collided with a market that the International Energy Agency views as well-supplied. The West Texas Intermediate contract for April fell 92 cents, or 1.17%, to settle at $78.01 a barrel on Friday. The Brent contract for May dropped 88 cents, or 1.06%, to settle at $82.08 a barrel. U.S. crude and the global benchmark lost 2.45% and 1.76%, respectively, for the week. Crude oil imports in China fell about 5.7% to 10.8 million barrels per day in the first two months of the year, compared to 11.44 million barrels per day in December, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. "The big burst of China demand recovery continues to just not pan out and without it, it's going to be hard for these prices to sustain themselves and recover further and get WTI back above 80 bucks," A senior official at the International Energy Agency, meanwhile, told Reuters this week that the oil market should be relatively well-supplied this year. Traders were also studying the latest nonfarm payroll data for February together with Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress this week to assess where interest rates — and oil demand — may go. The U.S. added 275,000 jobs in February, compared to 198,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. But the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%. Powell told Congress on Thursday that the central bank is "not far" from cutting rates. Powell told the Senate Banking Committee that the Fed wants more confidence that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. "When we do get that confidence, and we're not far from it, it'll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction," Powell said. Lower interest rates typically stimulate economic growth, which supports crude oil demand. Kilduff said the petroleum complex's reaction to the interest rate outlook has been "almost schizophrenic." While lower rates are supportive of demand, the Fed will also only cut rates due to slack in the economy and signs of weakness.

Fatalities Reported, Crew Abandons Ship After Houthi Missile Attack; US & Allies Sending Warships -- Attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea continue to escalate and risk sparking a regional conflict as President Biden's Operation Prosperity Guardian to shield ships from Iran-backed Houthi attacks miserably fails. The latest incident involves a commodity ship hit by at least one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Gulf of Aden, close to the Bab al-Mandab Strait, marking the first fatality of crew members of the multi-month Red Sea crisis. "Two killed and six injured in a Houthi missile strikes on the MV True Confidence, a Liberian-owned vessel, in the Red Sea today, per two US officials," Politico's Pentagon reporter Lara Seligman posted on X. Seligman said, "These are the first fatalities of the Houthi campaign against international shipping since November." A US Department of Defense source told the journalist that "no Americans were on board" the vessel at the time of the incident. There were no Americans onboard, but the incident "speaks to how the Houthis are terrorizing international commercial shipping," per U.S. official — Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) March 6, 2024 "The 23 crew members were forced to abandon the ship, which was damaged but has not sunk yet," she said. The 23 crew members were forced to abandon the ship, which was damaged but has not sunk yet, per another DOD official. An Indian destroyer was the first on the scene, and the crew was moved aboard that vessel. Seligman added: "Coalition warships have responded and are assessing the situation," including an "American guided-missile cruiser." An American guided-missile cruiser, the USS Philippine Sea, also headed in the direction of the True Confidence after the incident. Maritime tracking data via Bloomberg shows True Confidence abruptly turned before the Bab al-Mandab Strait on Tuesday, around 1900 local time. There is reason to believe the missile attack was around that time.

British-Owned Cargo Ship Sinks Days After Being Hit By Houthi Missile - The US military said on Saturday that the Rubymar, a British-owned cargo ship, sank in the Red Sea after taking on water for days following a February 18 Houthi missile strike.In response to the news, the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, vowed they would sink more British ships. The Houthis began targeting American and British commercial shipping after the US and the UK started a bombing campaign against the Houthis on January 12.“Yemen will continue to sink more British ships, and any repercussions or other damages will be added to Britain’s bill, as it is a rogue state that attacks Yemen and partners with America in sponsoring the ongoing crime against civilians in Gaza,” said Hussein al-Ezzi, the Houthis deputy foreign minister.The US and British bombing campaign in Yemen has only escalated the situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as the Houthis are not backing down. US officials recently acknowledged to CNN that they are unable to assess if the strikes are degrading the Houthis’ missile capabilities.The US and the UK have launched four joint rounds of heavy missile strikes so far, and the US has been launching unilateral bombings almost every day. On February 29 and March 1, CENTCOM reported that it launched a total of three strikes on Houthi-controlled Yemen, which is where between 70% and 80% of Yemenis live.The Houthis have made clear they would only stop their attacks in the region if the Israeli onslaught in Gaza comes to an end, and some US officials have said they think the Houthis would be true to their word. But the Biden administration refuses to press for a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and continues to provide unconditional military aid for the slaughter of Palestinians.

Rubymar, first casualty of Houthis, is pouring oil and fertilizer into Red Sea – Oil and fertilizer have poured into the Red Sea from a sinking cargo ship attacked by Yemen's Houthi rebels, putting the local environment and a critical waterway for cargo shipments to Europe at risk.U.S. officials confirmed early Sunday that the MV Rubymar carrying 21,000 metric tons of fertilizer had sunk two weeks after it was attacked on February 18. It's the first vessel to sink from a Houthi attack after the group started targeting commercial shipping in the waterway last November.The Rubymar, a Belize-flagged vessel, started leaking fuel shortly after the attack, leaving a 30-kilometer oil slick across the waterway. Although the 24 crew members on the ship were safely evacuated, the U.S. Central Commandsaid on X early Sunday that the leak poses an "environmental risk" in the area and could put other vessels moving through the Red Sea's busy shipping lanes in danger.The Houthi attacks have heightened concerns for the Red Sea’s coral reefs, which scientists have found to be so far resilient to climate change. Dozens of ships have been attacked by the Iranian-backed group, who says they are singling out vessels linked to Israel.The U.S. central command said the Houthis "pose a heightened threat to global maritime activities."Houthi revolutionary committee leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi said in a post on X that U.K. leader Rishi Sunak and his government "bear responsibility" for the Rubymar attack because of their support of "genocide and siege" in Gaza. "You have a chance to salvage the MV Rubymar by sending a letter of guarantee," allowing aid trucks into Gaza, he said.

Yemen faces environmental disaster over sunken Red Sea ship The sinking of a Belize-flagged bulker off Yemen after a Houthi missile attack poses grave environmental risks, as thousands of tonnes of fertiliser threaten to spill into the Red Sea, according to officials and experts. The Belize-flagged, Lebanese-operated Rubymar sank on Saturday with 21,000 metric tonnes of ammonium phosphate sulfate fertiliser on board, according to US Central Command (CENTCOM). It had been taking in water since a Houthi missile strike on February 18 damaged its hull, marking the most significant impact on a commercial ship since the rebels started targeting vessels in November. After already leaving a slick from leaking fuel while it was still afloat, the Rubymar now poses a new set of environmental threats under water. Abdulsalam al-Jaabi of the Yemeni government's environmental protection agency warned of "double pollution" that could impact 78,000 fishermen and their families - roughly half a million people. "The first pollution is oil pollution resulting from the large amount of fuel oil on board" which could continue to leak, he said, estimating the quantity to be over 200 tonnes. The second risk is posed by the fertiliser cargo, which is highly soluble and could harm "fish and living organisms such as coral reefs and seaweed" if released into the water, Jaabi added. The overall contamination could incur "significant economic costs", especially on war-torn coastal communities that depend on fishing for survival, the official warned. Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized the capital Sanaa in 2014, pushing the internationally recognised government south to Aden and prompting Saudi Arabia to lead a military coalition to help prop it up the following year. A ceasefire since April 2022 has largely held.

Houthis Offer Safe Passage To Ships Through Red Sea If They Obtain Permit - The Houthis are currently threatening to unleash more 'painful' attacks on Red Sea shipping. "Yemeni naval forces are closely monitoring all movements in the Red and Arabian Seas and our appropriate responses will make anybody found to be involved in such operations regret their allegiance to America and Britain," a Houthi military spokesman said Tuesday.Nadwa Al-Dawsari, an analyst with the Middle East Institute in Washington, has described that the US/UK-led Operation Prosperity Guardian has essentially failed. "The Houthis feel confident. They were never held accountable for any of their violations, including attacks on the Red Sea." And now the Iran-linked Houthis are so confident that they have announced a new system for entry into the Red Sea which they are unilaterally imposing."Ships will have to obtain a permit from Yemen’s Houthi-controlled Maritime Affairs Authority before entering Yemeni waters," according to a Monday statement of Houthi Telecommunications Minister, Misfer Al-Numair."(We) are ready to assist requests for permits and identify ships with the Yemeni Navy, and we confirm this is out of concern for their safety," the minister said further, in an official statement carried by the Houthi-run Al Masirah TV.According to details of the permit plan via Middle East Monitor:The territorial waters affected by the Yemeni order extend halfway out into the 20-km (12-mile) wide Bab Al-Mandab Strait, the narrow mouth of the Red Sea through which around 15 per cent of the world’s shipping traffic passes on its way to or from the Suez Canal. In normal times, more than a quarter of global container cargo – including apparel, appliances, auto parts, chemicals and agricultural products, like coffee – move via the Suez Canal.Previously the Houthis have said that Russia and China owned vessels would receive safe passage, but foreign tankers headed to Israeli ports risk coming under attack.Washington officials have already expressed doubt over the new offer of permits, saying that even permitted ships could likely face missile or drone attack.

US Says Three Crewmembers Killed in Houthi Attack on Commercial Ship - The US military said Wednesday that a Houthi attack on a cargo ship killed three crewmembers and wounded four, marking the first casualties in the Houthi operations against commercial shipping that were launched in response to the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza.US Central Command said a Houthi ballistic missile hit the M/V True Confidence, a Barbados-flagged, Liberian-owned bulk carrier. The Houthis took credit for the attack and said the ship was American-owned, but the True Confidence’s owner and manager said in a statement there was “no current connection with any US entity.”Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said Yemeni forces “struck the US ship in the Gulf of Aden, which caused a fire to break out.” He said the “operation was carried out after the crew of the American ship rejected warning messages from the Yemeni naval forces.”In response to the reports of civilians being killed, Houthi officials said they don’t intentionally target crew members. “We do not intentionally harm the crews of ships belonging to enemy countries, so we ask them to return and warn them not to cross,” Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of Ansar Allah’s political bureau,wrote on X.“America and Britain’s insistence on the continuation of genocide in Gaza, the starvation of its population, and its aggression against Yemen is what led to this dangerous escalation,” al-Bukhaiti added. Later on Wednesday, Yemeni media reported that US and British strikes targeted an airport in Yemen’s Hodeidah province, which is on the Red Sea. The new US bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen has killed at least one civilian and wounded 10 others in February. According to the Yemen Data Project, one civilian was killed, and seven were injured in a US strike on a telecommunications site, two were wounded in a strike on a pesticide factory, and one was injured in a strike on a farm. The US has killed at least 17 Houthi fighters since it began bombing Yemen on January 12.The US has a long history of killing civilians in Yemen in its drone wars, and the US backed a brutal Saudi-UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022. The war and blockade on Yemen killed at least 377,000 people, and more than half died of starvation and disease caused by the siege.The new US war against the Houthis has only escalated the situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as the Houthis are now targeting American and British commercial shipping. The Houthis were initially only targeting Israel-linked commercial shipping and have made clear the only way they’ll stop is if the siege on Gaza comes to an end.

Iranian 'Spy Ship' In Spotlight After Undersea Data Cables Linking Continents Severed 00In a statement on Monday, Hong Kong-based HGC Global Communications revealed that four undersea communications cables in the Red Sea were severed, impacting about a quarter of the data transmission between Asia and Europe. The incident occurred one week ago, with the full extent of the damage only now coming to light. The cut data cables include Asia-Africa-Europe 1, the Europe India Gateway, Seacom and TGN-Gulf, HGC Global said, adding this is "estimated impact 25% of traffic - around 15% of Asia traffic goes west-bound, while 80% of those traffic will pass through these submarine cables in the Red Sea." HGC said it had taken measures to "successfully devised a comprehensive diversity plan to reroute affected traffic." What severed the undersea cables remains unclear - and there are mounting concerns that Iran-backed Houthis were part of the attack. But in recent days, the rebels have denied attacking the lines. AP News quoted a US government official who said an investigation is underway to determine the cause of the cable cuts. The official said the investigation will decide whether it was an intentional act or an accident involving an anchor. However, some believe the Houthis are not the most capable group in the region to conduct such an attack; in fact, it might be Iran."Cutting off critical lines communications and driving up the costs of everything from internet to oil across the Middle East is a clearly articulated economic warfare goal of the IRGC Qods Force. Iran seeks to undermine global access to the region as part of its cost-imposition strategy," said David Asher, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute. Asher said: "The Qods Force is operating a spy ship called the Behsad that is reportedly in the Gulf of Aden, not far from where the undersea cables were cut. This ship highly likely carries a Qods Force special underwater warfare force component more than capable of carrying out an undersea cable attack." Bloomberg data shows that the Behshad, an Iranian vessel in the Red Sea, was in the region around the time the incident occurred last week.

UNICEF Warns Child Deaths in Gaza Due to Israeli Siege Will 'Increase Rapidly' - At least 16 Palestinian children have starved to death in the Gaza Strip over the past few days due to the US-backed Israeli siege, and the UN’s child relief agency is warning that the number of child deaths will “rapidly increase” if conditions don’t immediately change.“Last week, we warned that an explosion in child deaths was imminent if the burgeoning nutrition crisis wasn’t resolved,” said Adele Khodr, UNICEF’s director for the Middle East and North Africa. “Now, the child deaths we feared are here and are likely to rapidly increase unless the war ends and obstacles to humanitarian relief are immediately resolved.”The latest Palestinian child reported to die of hunger was Yazan al-Kafarna, a 10-year-old with cerebral palsy who was in the al-Najjar Hospital in Rafah. Fifteen children have also died of malnutrition and dehydration at the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza.The UN has previously warned that Gaza’s entire population of about 2.2 million people is acing “crisis” levels of food insecurity, and at least 576,000 Palestinians in Gaza are “facing catastrophic levels of deprivation and starvation.”Despite the dire situation, the State Department reaffirmed on Monday that it will continue to provide military assistance for Israel’s genocidal war. The US is still not pushing for an immediate ceasefire or using military aid as leverage over Israel to allow more aid trucks into Gaza. Instead, the US dropped aid out of planes over the weekend, a move criticized by aid groups as a public relations ploy since the amount was just a drop in the bucket of what’s needed in Gaza.According to the latest numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry, 30,534 Palestinians have been killed by Israel, and 71,920 have been injured. About 70% of the casualties are women and children.

Israel Still Blocking US-Funded Flour Shipment Into Gaza - Israel is still blocking a US-funded flour shipment into the Gaza Strip that was announced by the White House 46 days ago, a US official told The Times of Israel on Tuesday.Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich initially said he blocked the shipment because it was going through the UN’s Palestinian relief agency, known as UNWRA. About two weeks ago, US officials said Israel agreed to unblock the shipment and send it through the World Food Program, but it still hasn’t entered Gaza, where children are dying of starvation. The flour is stuck at the Israeli port of Ashdod.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the US in January that he would allow the shipment to go through, but he has not been true to his word. The US official did not elaborate on why the flour continues to be blocked.State Department spokesman Matt Miller referenced the flour when asked about Israeli ministers who are restricting aid into Gaza. “You have seen ministers in the Israeli Government block the release of flour from the port at Ashdod; you have seen ministers of the Israeli Government supporting protests that blocked aid from going into Kerem Shalom,” he said.Miller insisted the US has said the restrictions on aid are “unacceptable,” but the Biden administration isn’t using any of its significant leverage over Israel since it continues to provide unconditional military aid for the slaughter and starvation of Palestinians.Instead of using its leverage on Israel, the US began dropping aid from planes over Gaza over the weekend and carried out another airdrop of about 36,000 meals with the Jordanian Air Force on Tuesday. Oxfam said the airdrops “mostly serve to relieve the guilty consciences of senior US officials whose policies are contributing to the ongoing atrocities and risk of famine in Gaza.”On Tuesday, an elderly Palestinian man died of dehydration and malnutrition in northern Gaza. In recent days, at least 16 Palestinian children have died of starvation, and the UN is warning the number will “increase rapidly” if the situation on the ground doesn’t dramatically change.

Bullets Found at Gaza Flour Massacre Site Belie Israel's 'Stampede' Claim - Bullet wounds caused by the same type of large-caliber ammunition used in several Israel Defense Forces rifles and machine guns undercut Israeli officials' dubious claim that most victims of last week's "Flour Massacre" near Gaza City died in a stampede, one human rights monitor said Wednesday.Gaza officials said at least 118 Palestinians were killed and 760 others injured when Israeli troops shot and shelled a large crowd of starving people waiting for food distribution in the al-Nabulsi Roundabout area south of Gaza City on February 29. Israeli officials said many or most of the victims were trampled as the large crowd of people starving due to Israel's siege and blockade of Gaza desperately rushed aid trucks.However, Dr. Mohammed Salha, the acting director of Al-Awda Hospital,told reporters last Friday that more than 80% of Flour Massacre victims treated at the facility suffered gunshot wounds. A United Nations team that visited al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City found "a large number of gunshot wounds" among the 200 or so patients being treated there.On Wednesday, the Geneva-based Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor, which is investigating the massacre, said that many victims suffered injuries from 5.56x45 mm NATO bullets, which are used in various guns carried by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops including M4 and Tavor assault rifles and IWI Negev light machine guns."A sample of 200 dead and injured victims revealed that they were indeed hit by this type of bullet, and that the bullets were discovered and examined at the massacre site along with shrapnel found in the bodies of the wounded and dead," the group said.Israel imports some of its 5.56 mm rounds from the United Kingdom, where Palestine advocates are calling for an investigation and the suspension of arms exports to the country.Numerous Flour Massacre survivors have described how Israeli troops opened fire on them while they attempted to secure food for their starving families."We had been waiting for hours when we finally spotted the trucks. At that very moment, the Israeli occupation opened fire at us with gunfire and artillery shelling," Hajj Mahmoud Daghmash toldThe Palestine Chronicle earlier this week. "Fear filled all our hearts, and people started running everywhere. We didn't know where to hide. The screams of the wounded, women, and children were heard everywhere.""The occupation killed us twice," Daghmas added. "Once when it shelled our homes, and then again by starving us."A group of U.N. special rapporteurs on Tuesday condemned the massacre and Israel's policy of deliberately starving Gazans to death and attacking humanitarian aid and those delivering and receiving it."Israel has been intentionally starving the Palestinian people in Gaza since October 8. Now it is targeting civilians seeking humanitarian aid and humanitarian convoys," the U.N. experts said. "Israel must end its campaign of starvation and targeting of civilians."

Air-Dropped Aid Crushes 5 Palestinians to Death in Gaza - (video) The parachutes of air-dropped pallets of aid failed, causing the large objects to plummet to the ground in northern Gaza, killing five. The US and several other countries have dropped a token amount of aid onto northern Gaza because Israel is only allowing a trickle of aid to enter the Strip by land. A witness speaking with Al-Jazeera explained the botched aid drop caused a building to collapse, killing some of the people sheltering inside. “People were waiting for the drops when they noticed they were coming in fast. So a group of people took cover in a construction site,” he said. “One of the packages fell atop the site, causing it to collapse, killing and wounding people inside. I rushed to help the people inside when I realized my cousin was among them. He is now dead.” Palestinian health officials and an eye witness who spoke with CBS News said that the aid crate killed five people, including two children, on Friday morning in northern Gaza . Multiple videos have also shown pallets of aid that have fallen into the Mediterranean Sea floating on the surface where some appear to tangle and plummet down. Aid groups have criticized the air-dropped aid into Gaza as insufficient. The head of the Norwegian Refugee Council humanitarian group, Jan Egeland, explained earlier this week that “Airdrops are expensive, haphazard, and usually lead to the wrong people getting the aid.” Gaza-based Journalist Abdel Qader Al Sabbah told CNN that the air drops of aid are “useless” and are causing more chaos. “You are lucky if you even get a hold of these meals… I don’t even bother to go searching for these aid parcels because people are always fighting over them,” he said. Palestinians say they want Biden to stop sending Israel bombs, not aid. Hassan Maslah, a Palestinian in Khan Younis, described his feelings as he dug through the rubble caused by an Israeli air strike. “All these American weapons are killing our kids, and killing us wherever we go. We don’t need aid from them, we need them to stop the killing, stop the death,” he said. A Palestinian discussing the shipments on social media lamented that the nutrition information and instructions were in English without an Arabic translation. Rafah-based journalist Hani Mahmoud explained there was a growing sense in Gaza that even aid is becoming deadly. “This is the tragedy people are experiencing in the north of Gaza.” He continued, “Not only are they confronted with the lack of food and medical supplies, but as they wait for packages of food they are either targeted by the Israeli military or killed by a non-functional parachute.” Last week, the Israeli military opened fire on Palestinians near an aid shipment. Over 100 Palestinians were killed and about 700 injured. A report released by Refugees International on Thursday described the situation in Gaza as “apocalyptic.” “Our research makes clear that conditions inside of Gaza are apocalyptic,” the report said. “After five months of war, Palestinians are struggling to find adequate food, water, shelter, and basic medicine. Famine-level hunger is already widespread and worsening.” At least 20 people in Gaza have starved to death because of the Israeli blockade of aid. Still, President Biden has refused to use Washington’s significant leverage over Tel Aviv to allow more aid into the Strip.

Biden Announces 'Emergency' Military Mission to Establish Port in Gaza for Aid - President Biden announced during the State of the Union on Thursday night that he ordered a military mission to establish a port in Gaza to get more aid into the Strip as Palestinians are starving to death and Israel is still restricting aid.The drastic measure is being ordered instead of Biden using the enormous leverage he has over Israel to pressure them to allow in more aid or halt the genocidal campaign. The US also recently started conducting airdrops of aid into Gaza, which aid groups have slammed as a public relations ploy.“Tonight, I’m directing the US military to lead an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the Gaza coast that can receive large ships carrying food, water, medicine, and temporary shelters,” Biden said.US officials claimed to Axios that the pier in the sea off the Gaza coast will allow hundreds of aid trucks to enter the Strip per day. But the pier will take weeks to build, and Palestinians are already starving to death at a rapid rate.Biden insisted there would be “no US boots on the ground.” But the plan does still run the risk of US personnel being targeted off the coast, which could lead to a major escalation of US involvement in the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians.The aid will pass through Cyprus before heading to the pier and will be subject to Israeli inspections, which means some could be turned away.CNN reported that some of the items most frequently rejected by Israel include anesthetics and anesthesia machines, oxygen cylinders, ventilators, and water filtration systems. The CNN report said other items that have faced restrictions are dates, sleeping bags, medicines to treat cancer, water purification tablets, and maternity kits.Biden acknowledged in his speech that Israel has killed “thousands and thousands of innocent women and children” but gave no indication he was reconsidering his policy of unconditional military support for the slaughter.

Starving Children in Gaza 'Cannot Wait' Weeks for US Port, Aid Groups Say -- Leading humanitarian groups said Friday that starving people in Gaza, including more than a million children, are in need of immediate aid and can't afford to wait for the U.S. military to construct a port on the enclave's coast, a project that's expected to take weeks."Children in Gaza cannot wait to eat," said Jason Lee, country director for Save the Children in the occupied Palestinian territory. "They are already dying from malnutrition and saving their lives is a matter of hours or days—not weeks."At least 17 children have starved to death in Gaza, according to Defense for Children International – Palestine, and many more are currentlystruggling to survive.Condemning Israel's obstruction of ground-based aid deliveries as "a grave violation against children" and international law, Lee stressed Friday that "there is already a tried and tested system in place to effectively coordinate aid.""But trucks of food and medicines that could save lives are waiting at crossings, while children are starving just miles away," Lee continued. "Airdrops, with no on-the-ground coordination of who it reaches, and maritime corridors like the one announced yesterday, are no solutions to keep children alive. Neither are substitutes for unimpeded humanitarian assistance via the established land routes."U.S. President Joe Biden announced during his State of the Union address Thursday night that he has directed the nation's military to "lead an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the coast of Gaza that can receive large shipments carrying food, water, medicine, and temporary shelters."The president also said Israel, whose military is armed to the teeth with U.S. weaponry, "must do its part" by allowing "more aid into Gaza"—but did not threaten any consequences if the Netanyahu government refuses."Israel needs to facilitate rather than block the flow of supplies. This is not a logistics problem; it is a political problem."Ground deliveries into Gaza have plummeted in recent weeks as Israeli forces have attacked aid convoys and prevented trucks from entering and moving through the territory. A World Food Program (WFP) officialsaid earlier this week there's enough food to feed Gaza's "entire population" sitting just outside of the strip."We need land crossings, we need access to get it into Gaza, whether in the southern parts of Gaza or the northern part of Gaza because the situation is catastrophic. So having access is really our number one priority," said Samer AbdelJaber, WFP's director of emergency.The WFP has said aid airdrops—which Biden authorized last week—are a "last resort" and "will not avert famine." On Friday, aid packages dropped into Gaza by U.S. military planes killed five people and injured at least 10 others.Avril Benoît, executive director for Doctors Without Borders, arguedFriday that Biden's plan for a temporary port "is a glaring distraction from the real problem: Israel's indiscriminate and disproportionatemilitary campaign and punishing siege.""The food, water, and medical supplies so desperately needed by people in Gaza are sitting just across the border," said Benoît. "Israel needs to facilitate rather than block the flow of supplies. This is not a logistics problem; it is a political problem. Rather than look to the U.S. military to build a workaround, the U.S. should insist on immediate humanitarian access using the roads and entry points that already exist."Refugees International said in a report released Thursday that its research teams found Israel is engaged in "routine and arbitrary denial of legitimate humanitarian goods from entering Gaza," forcing aid convoys to undergo "a highly complicated" inspection process "without clear or consistent instructions." "Our research makes clear that conditions inside of Gaza are apocalyptic," the group said. "After five months of war, Palestinians are struggling to find adequate food, water, shelter, and basic medicine. Famine-level hunger is already widespread and worsening."

So They're Experimenting With Military Robots In Gaza Now by Caitlin Johnstone - One of the most horrifying facts about this dystopia we live in is that large-scale military operations are routinely used as testing grounds for new war machinery, using human bodies as guinea pigs for experimentation in what amount to giant blood-soaked field laboratories — all to benefit the strategic objectives of empire managers and the profit margins of the military-industrial complex. Haaretz has a new article out titled “Gaza Becomes Israel’s Testing Ground for Military Robots”, which reports that “In an effort to avoid harming soldiers and dogs, the IDF has been experimenting with the use of robots and remote-controlled dogs in the Gaza War.” (Yeah because my gosh, can you imagine how terrible it would be if Israeli soldiers and dogs got harmed while carrying out a genocide?) The article’s author Sagi Cohen reports that drone-mounted robot dogs and remotely controlled bulldozers are two of the new apocalyptic horrors currently being battle-tested in Gaza, saying “defense establishment officials confirm that there has been a leap in the use and sophistication of robots on the battlefield.” Which is a pretty disconcerting sentence to read.This news comes out at the same time as a new Public Citizen report warning of the likely imminent arrival of autonomous weapons systems which will kill people with minimal instruction from human pilots, saying “The most serious worry involving autonomous weapons is that they inherently dehumanize the people targeted and make it easier to tolerate widespread killing, including in violation of international human rights law.” The more normalized robots become within the world’s militaries the closer we come to this point, and steps are already being taken in that direction. As Common Dreams’ Thor Benson notes in an article about the Public Citizen report, “Israel has purchased and at times deployed self-piloting, lethal drones.” Back in January I wrote that “Gaza is a live laboratory for the military industrial complex,” saying “Data is with absolute certainty being collected on all the newer weapons being field-tested on human bodies in Gaza (just like has been happening in Ukraine) to be used to benefit the war machine and arms industry.” What sparked this comment at the time was reports and first-hand witness accounts we’d seen coming out about the prolific use of IDF “sniper drones” in Gaza since October, with Israeli forces frequently shooting Palestinians with quad drones armed with rifles. Copious records are most assuredly being compiled on the effectiveness of these newer weapons and tactics in ending human lives, which will then be used to help market those weapons to other states and to improve their efficiency in killing. Author and journalist Antony Loewenstein gave a lengthy interview on The Chris Hedges Report back in December about Israel’s long and extensively documented history of using Gaza as a testing ground for new weapons, spyware, surveillance and security systems, AI, drones, and tactics, which has profited scores of corporations and enabled Israel to become a player of outsized success in the global weapons industry. “Israel’s drones, surveillance technology including spyware, facial recognition software, and biometric gathering infrastructure, along with smart fences, experimental bombs, and AI-controlled machine guns are all tried out on the captive population in Gaza, often with lethal results,” says Hedges in introduction. “These weapons and technologies are then certified as ‘battle-tested’ and sold around the world.”

US Envoy Says a Truce in Gaza Will 'Not Necessarily' Extend to Lebanon - US Special Envoy Amos Hochstein said on Monday that a truce in Gaza will “not necessarily” extend to Lebanon as Israel and Hezbollah continue to trade fire across the border.“It does not necessarily happen that when you have a ceasefire in Gaza, it just automatically extends,” Hochstein said after meeting with Lebanese officials in Beirut.Sources close to Hezbollah have said they would likely halt attacks on Israel if there were a truce in Gaza, but Israel has sent the opposite message. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant threatened Israel would escalate attacks in Lebanon if a temporary ceasefire was reached in Gaza as part of a hostage deal.Hochstein, who was born in Israel and served in the Israeli Defense Forces, has been tasked with brokering a deal between Israel and Hezbollah. But the US does not directly talk with Hezbollah, and the Lebanese government has not been happy with proposals put forward by the US and France, which call for Hezbollah to withdraw from the Israeli border but don’t include any Israeli concessions.Hochstein also warned against escalation along the Israel-Lebanon border. “Escalation of violence is in no one’s interest, and there is no such thing as a limited war,” he said. “A temporary ceasefire is not enough. A limited war is not containable.” He said a “diplomatic solution is the only way to end the current hostilities.” US officials have told CNN that they expect Israel to launch an invasion of southern Lebanon in late spring or early summer if a diplomatic solution is not reached. The officials also said they don’t think Israel would be happy with a deal that only involved Hezbollah withdrawing from the border.Israel is not expected to be able to handle a full-blown war in Lebanon while continuing the slaughter in Gaza, meaning they would be looking for direct support from the US. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has an interest in provoking a wider regional war as he is facing a political reckoning once the onslaught in Gaza comes to an end.

Report: Israel Sets March 15 as Deadline for 'Broad War' Against Lebanon - While tensions are high on the Lebanon-Israel border right now, there are reports that recent visits by a US envoy made some progress with a roadmap based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which ended the 2007 Israel-Lebanon war.Nevertheless Israel has reportedly ratcheted down hopes for a truce by the March 15 deadline Tel Aviv set for launching a broad war against neighboring Lebanon.Fighting along the border has been raging for months, with tens of thousands of residents displaced on both sides amid near-daily fire. At one point, Israel announced that returning residents to their homes was the primary incentive for the strikes.More recently, however, Israel shifted to the long-term goal of removing Hezbollah from the border region. While both US and French proposals for peace would do this, they also appear to be non-starters as long as a Gaza ceasefire is not in place.A large coalition of aid agencies has urged the cessation of hostilities on humanitarian grounds. They noted the 42 civilians killed since Israeli strikes began, including 7 children. They also reported that some 91,288 civilians were displaced from southern Lebanon.In detailing the $1.2 billion in direct losses in the south, much of the destruction was inflicted on local farmland, with white phosphorus in particular causing considerable damage. This includes the destruction of 47,000 olive trees.Meantime, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has been talking up the possibility of using a ceasefire as an opportunity to escalate the war in Lebanon by diverting resources from the Gaza Strip.Still, while a Gaza ceasefire has not been reached, Hamas said talks could resume over the coming weekend. There is hope for a Ramadan ceasefire, although as that month-long religious holiday begins March 10, there is not much time to forestall an all-out Lebanon war.Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem downplayed the chances of a broader war, saying he is “90% sure that there will not be a large scale war,” adding that it would require Israel or the US to change their position for there to be one.

Netanyahu Vows Israel Will Invade Rafah, Rejects 'International Pressure' - On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed Israel would continue its slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza despite “international pressure” and said Israeli forces would invade the southern city of Rafah, which is packed with 1.5 million Palestinians.“Today, I want to tell you tell you clearly: The IDF will continue to operate against all of Hamas’s battalions throughout the Strip – and this includes Rafah, Hamas’s last stronghold,” Netanyahu said at a graduation ceremony for Israeli military officers. “Whoever tells us not to operate in Rafah, is telling us to lose the war – and that will not happen.”A full-scale Israeli attack on Rafah would incur massive civilian casualties, something that was acknowledged in a leaked US diplomatic cable written by USAID officials that was obtained by The Intercept.“A potential escalation of military operations in within Southern Gaza’s Rafah Governorate could result in catastrophic humanitarian consequences, including mass civilian casualties, extensive population displacement, and the collapse of the existing humanitarian response,” the cable reads.While the US is aware of the catastrophe that will happen if Israel moves on Rafah, the Biden administration continues to provide unconditional military aid to Israel and is not threatening consequences if it invades the city.Israeli War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz previously threatened Israel would invade Rafah by Ramadan if Hamas doesn’t release Israeli hostages. Ramadan begins on March 10, and there’s no sign of a breakthrough in Egyptian and Qatari-mediated talks.International pressure is growing on Israel as Palestinians are starving to death, and Israel is still restricting aid shipments. The US is still providing political cover for the genocidal campaign at the UN, and Netanyahu said Israel would not cave to the pressure.“Indeed, there is international pressure, and it is increasing. But it is precisely when the international pressure increases that we must close ranks among ourselves. We must stand together against the attempts to stop the war,” Netanyahu said.

Israel Boycotts Hostage Deal Talks in Cairo - A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo on Sunday for hostage deal talks, but Israel has boycotted the negotiations.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke off hostage deal talks because Hamas did not provide a list of all the living Israeli hostages. Sources in Israel’s security cabinet criticized Netanyahu’s demand in comments to Haaretz.“As with the previous deal, one could assume there would eventually be proper lists of the hostages and of those no longer living. This didn’t need to be made into a deal-breaker for advancing the negotiations,” one source said.The potential deal that’s on the table is for Hamas to release about 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for a six-week ceasefire and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has been seeking a permanent ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, but there were signs on Sunday that the Palestinian group may be more flexible on its demands.A senior Hamas source told Lebanon’s Al Mayadeen that a deal could be reached soon despite “obstacles” being put in the way by Israel. “Despite these obstacles, the possibility of reaching an agreement is still viable, especially as the occupation is being dealt heavy blows in Khan Younis and al-Zaytoun neighborhood,” the Hamas source said.Citing Arab media, Haaretz reported a Hamas source said the group could be flexible on the length of the ceasefire and the number of Palestinian prisoners that will be released. But both Hamas sources said they are standing firm on two conditions: Israel allowing displaced Palestinians to return to northern Gaza and the delivery of much more aid to the north.

As Egypt Implements Massive Devaluation Of Currency, Sending Pound Tumbling, Unrest & Instability On Horizon - The Egyptian pound crashed Wednesday as the government initiated a devaluation of more than 38%, while also hiking interest rates, in order to attract billions more in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Already with one of the world's highest levels of foreign debt, Egypt is trying to avoid potential default in the coming years, and has been propped up by loans and central bank deposits from Persian Gulf states and the IMF. Like other governments in the region, particularly Lebanon, Egypt has long had a severe shortage of foreign-currency reserves, resulting in the Central Bank of Egypt artificially propping up the pound's value, leading to a robust black market exchange.The central bank announced Wednesday, "The unification of the exchange rate is crucial, as it facilitates the elimination of foreign-exchange backlogs following the closure of the spread between the official and the parallel exchange-rate markets." It will allow "the exchange rate to be determined by market forces."The statement said it further raised the overnight lending rate to 28.25% and its overnight deposit rate to 27.25%, and crucially that it would let the Egyptian pound trade freely on international markets, in a bid toward quashing inflation.The central bank said of its drastic moves that they are "backed by the steadfast support of multilateral and bilateral partners" and that "sufficient funding has been secured to avail foreign exchange liquidity."Last month we previewed the $35 billion deal that will see the United Arab Emirates develop a sprawling portion of prime Mediterranean coast in Egypt's northwest. It marks the largest foreign direct investment in an urban development project in the country's modern history. This expected windfall of foreign exchange is badly needed as local businesses have been suffering and the cost of imported goods has soared.Economic conditions have only steadily worsened by the increasing strain of over five months of war in neighboring Gaza, amid an ever-present risk that all of this together could fuel popular unrest and destabilization in northern Africa's most populace country. The Wall Street Journal noted, "The market reaction was swift, as Egypt’s pound lost more than half its value against the U.S. dollar, and was trading at around 48.0, compared with 30.9 at Tuesday’s close."So a big question will remain whether the inflation surge will lead to a spike in local instability at a very delicate geopolitical moment. The Sisi government and military deep state has long been propped up by Washington, in order to ensure the Camp David Accords and historic peace with Israel; however, the opposition and outlawed Muslim Brotherhood and its ultra-conservative Islam still holds sway over huge swathes of the population.

Australian PM First Western Leader Referred to ICC as 'Accessory to Genocide in Gaza' Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is one of several Western leaders who have provided political and material support of the Israeli government and military over the past five months as their bombardment of Gaza has killed more than 30,000 people, but on Monday he became the first to be referred to the International Criminal Court for being an "accessory to genocide."More than 100 lawyers supported the referral under Article 15 of the Rome Statute, arguing that Albanese, a member of the Labor Party, as well as members of his Cabinet and of Parliament, have provided Israel with "rhetorical support in their public statements, their press conferences, their speeches" as well as material assistance, as attorney Sheryn Omeri told ABC's "News Breakfast."Omeri said thee aid Australia has "most particularly" provided since Israel began attacking Gaza has been the export of F-35 fighter jet parts as well as military intelligence through the government's surveillance work at Joint Defense Facility Pine Gap in Australia's Northern Territory.While Albanese has recently called on Israel to respect international law, said Omeri, "it's been months since the 7th of October, 2023, and between then and now there has been very little in the way of urging restraint on Israel and discouraging what the International Court of Justice found on the 26th of January was a plausible case of genocide." The 92-page document compiled by the legal team lays out a number of specific ways Albanese and other Australian officials have acted as an accessory to genocide, including:

• Freezing $6 million in funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East amid a humanitarian crisis based on unsubstantiated claims by Israel;
• Providing military aid and approving defenee exports to Israel, which could be used by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the course of the prima facie commission of genocide and crimes against humanity;
• Ambiguously deploying an Australian military contingent to the region, where its location and exact role have not been disclosed; and
• Permitting Australians, either explicitly or implicitly, to travel to Israel to join the IDF and take part in its attacks on Gaza.

"The Rome Statute provides four modes of individual criminal responsibility, two of which are accessorial," Omeri explained in a statement. Along with Albanese, U.S. President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz are among the Western leaders who have repeatedly defended Israel's actions in Gaza—despite the genocidal intent expressed in numerous public statements by Israeli leaders.

Russian Forces Make Steady Gains in Eastern Ukraine - Russian forces have been making steady gains in eastern Ukraine since taking the strategic Donetsk city of Avdiivka last month as Ukraine’s war effort continues to falter.According to Russian Defense Ministry estimates, it took Russian troops four months to advance 5.6 miles through Donetsk before taking Avdiivka. In the last three weeks, Russian forces have already advanced three miles west of the city.Russia was expected to be able to start gaining territory more rapidly once Avdiivka was taken if it could keep up the momentum. Ukrainian soldiers on the front are facing severe manpower and weapons shortages, but Ukrainian leadership vows the fight will continue. Russia has also started hitting US-made Abrams tanks on the battlefield, and Russia’s TASS news agency reported Wednesday that three have been destroyed so far. The US pledged a total of 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine to get Germany to sign off on the delivery of its Leopard tanks. Ukraine took heavy armor losses during last year’s counteroffensive.Despite the bleak situation, Ukraine’s new ground forces commander, Oleksandr Pavliuk, insisted that Ukrainian forces will be able to “stabilize” the situation and “do everything possible to prepare the troops for more active actions and to seize the initiative.”Pavliuk took the position as the ground forces commander after his predecessor, Oleksandr Syrskyi, was promoted to Ukrainian commander-in-chief following the sacking of Valery Zaluzhny. Syrskyi is not well-liked among Ukrainian soldiers and earned himself a nickname as the “butcher” for his willingness to get Ukrainians killed.

Ukraine Overnight Sea Drone Attack Sinks Another Russian Ship In Black Sea -- Ukraine is claiming another major successful operation in the Black Sea, with its military intelligence agency announcing that the large Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov was sunk overnight after it was hit by high-tech sea drones.While Russia has not confirmed the claim, Ukraine's military said "a special operations unit destroyed the large patrol ship Sergey Kotov overnight with Magura V5 uncrewed vessels that are designed and built in Ukraine and laden with explosives." The attack allegedly happened near the Kerch Strait, and would be a significant operational 'win' given the Sergey Kotov can carry cruise missiles and some 60 crew members.Ukraine subsequently published video appearing to show the nighttime attack which left the ship severely damaged. The ship may have also had a helicopter on board at the time. "Right now this ship is on the seabed," Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said.The BBC has concluded that the video looks authentic Ukraine said the cost of the sunken Sergei Kotov ship was $65m (£51.2m), adding that it was hit near the Kerch Strait, which separates Crimea from Russia.A video posted on social media appears to show the moment when the ship was hit. BBC Verify has looked at the video, released by Ukraine, said to be of the attack.The vessel has similar structural features to a patrol ship of the same class as the Sergei Kotov. However, no number is visible on its side, so the footage does not make clear if it is the same ship.The private security firm Ambrey has also said the attack happened at the port of Feodosia in Crimea. Typically the Kremlin doesn't confirm such covert attacks or sinkings of its ships, but Russian military bloggers have acknowledged the incident.Despite Ukraine forces being currently in retreat outside of Avdiivka, and suffering serious manpower and artillery shortages, they had some recent successes in attacks on Russia's Black Sea naval fleet. Drone attacks on Crimea have also ramped up in the past days.

China Escalates Feud With US Treaty Ally Philippines After Boat Collision - China and the Philippines are locked in an aggressive war of words and mutual denunciations after their vessels collided on Tuesday in contested waters near Second Thomas Shoal. The US backs the Philippines in the dispute, setting the stage for broader regional tensions and potential US naval intervention.The Chinese Coast Guard said in the wake of the collisions that Manila "violated its commitments and deliberately sent two coastguard ships and two supply ships" to a make-shift claimed military outpost. As cited The South China Morning Post, the statement continued: "The Philippines is dishonest in its dialogue, deliberately stirs up trouble, maliciously incites and sensationalizes, and continues to undermine peace and stability in the South China Sea region."But the Philippine Coast Guard countered by saying their vessels "faced dangerous maneuvers and blocking" and said China’s "reckless and illegal actions led to a collision." Reportedly four four Filipino crew members were injured as a result. Watch the collision below:And more from the response to Beijing: "The Philippines demands that Chinese vessels leave the vicinity of Ayungin Shoal immediately," the Phillippines Department of Foreign Affairs said in a statement, using the United States ally's term for the Spratly Islands feature.Since coming into power in 2022 Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. has taken a much harder line when it comes to China’s claims to the South China Sea. At the same time, Manilla has also been emboldened by the fact that the Pentagon is beefing up its assets both in the Philippines and in regional waters. China has meanwhile been on a years-long campaign to bolster its expansive claims by establishing a series of manmade islands and subsequently militarizing them.The situation remains highly dangerous given that Washington and Manilla have a military treaty (called the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty). However, for now at least, Philippine President Marcos told reporters Wednesday: "I do not think that it is a time or the reason to invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty."

China Sets Economic Growth Target At Around 5% This Year, Will Boost Defense Spending By 7.2% China will target economic growth of "around 5%" this year as it works to transform its development model (read magically grow while aggressively deleveraging), curb industrial overcapacity (read build less ghost cities while trying to contain the fallout from the biggest real estate crisis in history), defuse property sector risks (read transfer ownership from countless insolvent property developers to the state while encouraging foreign investment) and cut wasteful spending by local governments (read limit corruption in a country where 1 out of every 3 yuan is embezzled, stolen or otherwise vaporized), Premier Li Qiang said on Tuesday according to Reuters.Li delivered his maiden work report at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's rubber-stamp legislature, in the cavernous Great Hall of the People in Tiananmen Square.The growth target - already the lwoest in decades - was identical to last year's but analysts warned that it would be harder to achieve this year than in 2023, when growth was flattered by a low base during the pandemic, and will require stronger government stimulus for China to reach it, as the economy remains reliant on state investments in infrastructure that have led to a mountain of municipal debt.Almost all of the 27 economists polled by Bloomberg before the National People’s Congress expected Beijing to announce a growth target similar to last year. Economists polled in a separate, broader survey, however, said the economy would likely grow at a more realistic 4.6% in 2024.“It’s what the Communist Party thinks is needed to keep the Chinese economy going and account for needs like employment,” Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said of the GDP goal for 2024.Investors are watching this year’s “Two Sessions” of the National People’s Congress, the country’s parliament, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the top advisory body, for clues as to how dictator Xi plans to tackle the slowing economy. The premier’s work report, delivered to the NPC’s nearly 3,000 delegates in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, is the keynote speech of the Two Sessions,laying out the party’s most important annual economic goals and setting the tone for policymakers for the rest of the year.“We expect a moderate level of policy support, but given a less favourable base effect, pervasively downbeat sentiment, and property market weakness remaining an overhang, reaching 5 per cent growth this year may be more difficult,” ING greater China chief economist Lynn Song said in a note ahead of the work report.An aborted COVID recovery in the past year has laid bare China's deep structural imbalances, from weak household consumption to increasingly lower returns on investment and a collapse in loan demand, prompting calls for a new development model. A property crisis, deepening deflation, a stock market rout, mounting local government debt woes and a surge in protests by angry Chines workershave increased the pressure on China's leaders to respond to these calls.