week ending Apr 20

Powell says rate cuts will take ‘longer than expected’ after ‘lack of progress’ on inflation - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that it will likely “take longer than expected” for the central bank to gain the confidence that inflation is sustainably falling to 2 percent and begin cutting interest rates. “More recent data show solid growth and continued strength in the labor market but also a lack of further progress so far this year on returning to our 2 percent inflation goal,” Powell said during remarks at the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that it’s likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” he later added. The Fed raised interest rates to a two-decade high over the past two years in an effort to bring down inflation. The central bank has held rates at a baseline range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent since last July as inflation showed signs of cooling. Despite falling from a 40-year high of 9.1 percent in June 2022, inflation has ticked higher in recent months. According to new data released Wednesday, inflation rose 0.4 percent in March and 3.5 percent year-over-year, up slightly from 3.2 percent in February and 3.1 percent in January. The U.S. has also seen rapid job growth throughout 2024 as joblessness remains below 4 percent for the longest streak since the late 1960s. President Biden acknowledged last week that the latest inflation data could push back the Fed’s rate cuts, while touting the administration’s overall progress on inflation. “This may delay it a month or so, I’m not sure of that. We don’t know what the Fed is going to do for certain,” Biden said. “But look, we have dramatically reduced inflation from 9 percent down to close to 3 percent,” he added. “We’re in a situation where we’re better situated than we were when we took office, where inflation was skyrocketing.”

Rate-Cut Hopes Plunge As Fed Chair Powell Admits "Lack Of Further Progress On Inflation" --Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak this afternoon and the big question is how many times will he said the word "patience", "confidence", and/or "we must get Biden re-elected." Powell has been less hawkish than many of his peers on the FOMC - leaving all doors open for cuts 'at some point' this year, merely needing a little more confidence that they are really winning the inflation war. The problem is - they are not anymore. As the following chart shows, inflation data has been surprising significantly to the upside for four months... and US macroeconomic data has also been surprising to the upside...Neither of which provide any rate-cutting-leg to stand on for Powell and his pals. Update (1330ET):In his most direct comments about The Fed's expected path for rates, Chair Powell just admitted that "recent data show lack of further progress on inflation" and the market did not like it much... And 2Y yield tops 5% for first time since November... With 2024 rate-cut expectations tumbling and a major volume crush in SOFR spreads for 2025 as it appears someone capitulated... Powell added that it "will likely take longer for confidence on inflation" and in the meantime it "is appropriate to let policy take further time to work." * * *

What If The Fed's Hikes Are Actually Sparking US Economic Boom? - As the US economy hums along month after month, minting hundreds of thousands of new jobs and confounding experts who had warned of an imminent downturn, some on Wall Street are starting to entertain a fringe economic theory.What if, they ask, all those interest-rate hikes the past two years are actually boosting the economy? In other words, maybe the economy isn’t booming despite higher rates but rather because of them.It’s an idea so radical that in mainstream academic and financial circles, it borders on heresy — the sort of thing that in the past only Turkey’s populist president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or the most zealous disciples of Modern Monetary Theory would dare utter publicly.But the new converts — along with a handful who confess to being at least curious about the idea — say the economic evidence is becoming impossible to ignore. By some key gauges — GDP, unemployment, corporate profits — the expansion now is as strong or even stronger than it was when the Federal Reserve first began lifting rates.This is, the contrarians argue, because the jump in benchmark rates from 0% to over 5% is providing Americans with a significant stream of income from their bond investments and savings accounts for the first time in two decades. “The reality is people have more money,” says Kevin Muir, a former derivatives trader at RBC Capital Markets who now writes an investing newsletter called The MacroTourist.These people — and companies — are in turn spending a big enough chunk of that new-found cash, the theory goes, to drive up demand and goose growth.In a typical rate-hiking cycle, the additional spending from this group isn’t nearly enough to match the drop in demand from those who stop borrowing money. That’s what causes the classic Fed-induced downturn (and corresponding decline in inflation). Everyone was expecting the economy to follow that pattern and “slow precipitously,” Muir says. “I’m like no, it’s probably more balanced and might even be slightly stimulative.”Muir and the rest of the contrarians — Greenlight Capital’s David Einhorn is the most high profile of them — say it’s different this time for a few reasons. Principal among them is the impact of exploding US budget deficits. The government’s debt has ballooned to $35 trillion, double what it was just a decade ago. That means those higher interest rates it’s now paying on the debt translate into an additional $50 billion or so flowing into the pockets of American (and foreign) bond investors each month.That this phenomenon made rising rates stimulative, not restrictive, became obvious to the economist Warren Mosler many years ago. But as one of the most vocal advocates of Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT, his interpretation was long dismissed as the preachings of an eccentric crusader. So there’s a little sense of vindication for Mosler as he watches some of the mainstream crowd come around now. “I’ve been certainly talking about this for a very long time,” he says.Muir readily admits to being one of those who had snickered at Mosler years ago. “I was like, you’re insane. That makes no sense.” But when the economy took off after the pandemic, he decided to take a closer look at the numbers and, to his surprise, concluded Mosler was right. Einhorn, one of Wall Street’s best-known value investors, came to the theory earlier than Muir, when he observed how slowly the economy was expanding even though the Fed had pinned rates at 0% after the global financial crisis. While hiking rates to extremes clearly wouldn’t help the economy — the blow to borrowers from a, say, 8% benchmark rate is just too powerful — lifting them to more moderate levels would, he figured.Einhorn notes that US households receive income on more than $13 trillion of short-term interest-bearing assets, almost triple the $5 trillion in consumer debt, excluding mortgages, that they have to pay interest on. At today’s rates, that translates to a net gain for households of some $400 billion a year, he estimates. “When rates get below a certain amount, they actually slow down the economy,” Einhorn said on Bloomberg’s Masters in Business podcast in February. He calls the chatter that the Fed needs to start cutting rates to avoid a slowdown “really weird.”“Things are pretty good,” he said. “I don’t think that they’re really going to help anybody” by cutting rates.

Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity expanded slightly" - Fed's Beige Book (excerpt) Overall economic activity expanded slightly, on balance, since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth—up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity. Consumer spending barely increased overall, but reports were quite mixed across Districts and spending categories. Several reports mentioned weakness in discretionary spending, as consumers' price sensitivity remained elevated. Auto spending was buoyed notably in some Districts by improved inventories and dealer incentives, but sales remained sluggish in other Districts. Tourism activity increased modestly, on average, but reports varied widely. Manufacturing activity declined slightly, as only three Districts reported growth in that sector. Contacts reported slight increases in nonfinancial services activity, on average, and bank lending was roughly flat overall. Residential construction increased a little, on average, and home sales strengthened in most Districts. In contrast, nonresidential construction was flat, and commercial real estate leasing fell slightly. The economic outlook among contacts was cautiously optimistic, on balance. Employment rose at a slight pace overall, with nine Districts reporting very slow to modest increases, and the remaining three Districts reporting no changes in employment. Most Districts noted increases in labor supply and in the quality of job applicants. Several Districts reported improved retention of employees, and others pointed to staff reductions at some firms. Despite the improvements in labor supply, many Districts described persistent shortages of qualified applicants for certain positions, including machinists, trades workers, and hospitality workers. Wages grew at a moderate pace in eight Districts, with the remaining four noting only slight to modest wage increases. Multiple Districts said that annual wage growth rates had recently returned to their historical averages. On balance, contacts expected that labor demand and supply would remain relatively stable, with modest further job gains and continued moderation of wage growth back to pre-pandemic levels. Price increases were modest, on average, running at about the same pace as in the last report. Disruptions in the Red Sea and the collapse of Baltimore's Key Bridge caused some shipping delays but so far did not lead to widespread price increases.

GDP Forecasts Brighten Yet Further -- Menzie Chinn. -- The WSJ April survey is out (responses April 5-9): First, the level of forecasted GDP over the last 3 surveys (7 months):Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ April 2024 mean forecast implied level (blue), January 2024 (red), October 2023 (light green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2023Q4 3rd release, WSJ surveys (various issues), and author’s calculations.Currently, the mean forecast for Q1 is exceeded by two of the most recent nowcasts (Atlanta, NY Feds): Figure 2 [upated]: GDP (bold black), April WSJ mean (light blue), GDPNow (4/15) (red square), NY Fed (light green square), St. Louis Fed (blue inverted triangle), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source BEA via FRED, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, St. Louis Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations.The mean and median forecasts are for no negative quarters of growth. Even the trimmed lower bound (taking off the bottom 6 forecasts for 2024) doesn’t show two consecutive negative quarters.Figure 3: GDP (bold black), WSJ April 2024 mean forecast implied level (blue), median (tan), 20% trimmed high/low for 2024 (gray), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: BEA 2023Q4 3rd release, WSJ surveys (various issues), and author’s calculations.Trimmed low is Mike Cosgrove/Econoclast, high is Song Won Sohn/SS Economics. Median is Satyam Panday/S&P Global Ratings.The highest growth rate forecast is perennial optimist James Smith/EconForecaster (3.3% if 2024 q4/q4). Andrew Hollenhorst & Veronica Clark/Citigroup and Amy Crew Cutts/AC Cutts both forecast negative growth in Q2-Q3.As for recession (recall, NBER does not define a recession by the two-quarters-consecutive-negative-GDP-growth rule-of-thumb), economists views diverge substantially from a purely statistical prediction (probit) based on the 10yr-3mo term spread and the WSJ survey.Figure 4: WSJ survey probability of recession within one year (blue), and probit based 10yr-3mo spread recession in one year (tan), both in %. Probit estimates based on 1986-2018 (pre-pandemic). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Source: WSJ, NBER, author’s calculations.Note that in the run-up to the 2007-09 recession, the probit model lead the survey measure, while probit and survey rose in tandem through end-2022, diverging thereafter.

‘Something will have to give’: IMF sounds alarm on US debt -The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Tuesday that America’s recent economic performance is partially the result of the country’s unsustainable fiscal practices, creating risks for the global economy. “The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth, but it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability,” the IMF wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook. “This raises short-term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer-term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy since it risks pushing up global funding costs,” it continued. “Something will have to give.” The IMF projected that the U.S. economy will grow 2.7 percent in 2024, an upward revision of 0.6 percentage points from January and well above the projections for its fellow advanced economies. “The strong recent performance of the United States reflects robust productivity and employment growth, but also strong demand in an economy that remains overheated,” said Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, in a blog post. “This calls for a cautious and gradual approach to easing by the Federal Reserve,” he added. Congress voted last spring to suspend the debt limit as part of a larger bipartisan deal aimed at reining in annual government funding with budget caps. At the time, the national debt stood at roughly $31.4 trillion, and has since risen by trillions more dollars in the past year, according to the Treasury Department.

Trump trade advisers plot dollar devaluation -Economic advisers close to former President Donald Trump are actively debating ways to devalue the U.S. dollar if he’s elected to a second term — a dramatic move that could boost U.S. exports but also reignite inflation and threaten the dollar’s position as the world’s dominant currency. The idea is being discussed by former trade chief Robert Lighthizer — a potential Treasury secretary pick for Trump and the architect of the former president’s bruising tariff campaign against China — and policy advisers allied with him, according to three former Trump administration officials granted anonymity to discuss confidential policy plans. Purposely devaluing the U.S. dollar by pressing other countries to alter their own currency values would represent the most aggressive proposal yet in Trump’s attempts to reshape global trade. The potential moves would go beyond the tariffs of Trump’s first term and the expansive industrial subsidies for clean energy enacted by President Joe Biden. A weaker dollar would make U.S. exports cheaper on the world market and potentially reduce the U.S.’ yawning trade deficit. But weakening the dollar could have other far-reaching consequences, from sending consumer prices for imported products soaring, to inviting retaliation from other countries and threatening the dollar’s role as world reserve currency, which would undermine U.S. sanctions on adversaries like Iran and Russia. The potential policy shift during a second Trump term could further fragment the global economy — a post-pandemic trend top finance officials are already grappling with as they gather in Washington this week for the yearly Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

US helps Israel thwart Iran assault; world awaits Israeli response - U.S. forces overnight in Israel helped its ally thwart a significant aerial assault by Iran, helping to intercept hundreds of Iranian drones and missiles and severely mitigating their damage. The attack from Iran and its allies on Israel appeared to cause little damage, and Israeli forces said most of the projectiles had been successfully thwarted. The question now is how Israel will respond to an attack from Iranian soil on its territory. Israel’s war Cabinet was set to meet Sunday to discuss the matter. The attack by Iran was in response to a strike earlier this month on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, that killed members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran had vowed to respond to that attack, but by telegraphing Saturday’s strikes, they may have done so in a way intended to avoid triggering a wider war with the United States and Israel. In a statement Saturday, President Biden emphasized U.S. support for Israel but also noted the success U.S. and Israeli forces had enjoyed in thwarting the attack. “At my direction, to support the defense of Israel, the U.S. military moved aircraft and ballistic missile defense destroyers to the region over the course of the past week,” Biden said. “Thanks to these deployments and the extraordinary skill of our servicemembers, we helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles.”

Biden condemns Iran’s strike on Israel: A case study in imperialist hypocrisy - The imperialist powers have responded to Iran’s strikes on Israel Saturday with an outpouring of condemnation. “I condemn these attacks in the strongest possible terms,” US President Joe Biden declared, reaffirming “America’s ironclad commitment to the security of Israel.” The G7 group of imperialist powers said in a statement, “We ... unequivocally condemn in the strongest terms Iran’s direct and unprecedented attack against Israel.” It added, “Iran has further stepped toward the destabilization of the region and risks provoking an uncontrollable regional escalation.” These statements by the imperialist warmongers, repeated by every major NATO power, are the height of hypocrisy. The forces “provoking an uncontrollable regional escalation” in the Middle East are Israel and its imperialist backers. Let us get the timeline straight. Iran’s strike was a response to the April 1 attack by Israel on the Iranian embassy in Syria that killed seven top-level Iranian military officers, including two generals. In response to Israel’s flagrantly illegal and murderous attack on what is, under international law, Iranian soil, the imperialist powers effectively signaled their endorsement. US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood declared that “terrorist leaders and elements were allegedly present at this facility.” The US, France and the UK vetoed a resolution in the UN Security Council condemning Israel’s attack. Now, the imperialists are falling all over themselves to condemn Iran’s response to Israel’s action. This is all the more striking given that Iran’s action was largely symbolic. The Iranian government announced Saturday’s strike to countries in the region 72 hours in advance in an effort to limit the impact. As Reuters reported Sunday: Iran gave wide notice days before Saturday’s drone and missile attack on Israel, allowing mass casualties and rampant escalation to be averted. The imperialist powers are asserting that they and their proxies can kill as many people as they want, carry out targeted assassinations and act in complete violation of anything resembling international law. But any response, even of the most minimal character, is denounced as a crime. This is the basic law of colonialism and imperialism.

Trump blames Biden for Iran strike on Israel: ‘It would not have happened if we were in office’ -Former President Trump on Saturday ripped into President Biden over Iran’s recent attack against Israel, arguing it would not be occurring if were still in the Oval Office. “I want to say God bless the people of Israel — they’re under attack right now,” Trump said Saturday during a rally in Schnecksville, Penn. “That’s because we show great weakness. This would not happen.” “The great weakness that we’ve shown is unbelievable, and it would not have happened if we were in office. You know that, they know that, everybody knows that,” he added. The rally was held shortly after Iran launched an attack of drone and missile strikes on Israel on Saturday, sparking fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. Israel later said the “vast majority” of the Iranian missiles were intercepted outside of the country by the country’s air defenses and the assistance of its allies, including U.S. forces. Trump on Saturday said America “prays for Israel,” telling the crowd, “We send our absolute support to everyone in harm’s way. This is an attack that would not have happened.” “I will revive American strength abroad, and we will restore American strength at home,” he continued. He echoed the argument on Truth Social, writing earlier in the day, “ISRAEL IS UNDER ATTACK! This should never have been allowed to happen – This would NEVER have happened if I were President!”

Kirby: ‘We’re not looking for a wider war with Iran’ --John Kirby, White House national security communications adviser, said the Biden administration is “not looking” for a wider war with Iran after Tehran launched a retaliatory attack against Israel and sparked fears of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. Asked Sunday on NBC News’s “Meet The Press,” if the Middle East tensions have escalated into a wider war, Kirby said, “The president doesn’t believe that it needs to move in that direction whatsoever.” “And also, Israel demonstrated again, as I said, that they’re not standing alone, that they have friends,” Kirby added. “So the president’s been clear. We don’t want to see this escalate. We’re not looking for a wider war with Iran. I think, you know, the coming hours and days will tell us a lot. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched dozens of missiles and drones toward Israel on Saturday. The move was largely expected in retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike earlier this month that hit the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria, and killed two senior IRGC officers. Israel later said the “vast majority” of the Iranian missiles were intercepted outside of the country by the country’s air defenses and the assistance of its allies, including U.S. forces. Kirby applauded Israel’s defense against the attack and said “very little go through,” leaving “extraordinarily light” damage. “I would ask the Americans that saw what happened last night to take heart in terms of the military capability of their forces in the region, how they are defending themselves and defending our interest in the region,” he said.

Anyone Who Wants The US To Attack Iran Is An Enemy Of Humanity - by Caitlin Johnstone - Anyone who wants the US and its allies to attack Iran is a psychopath. People who want to unleash a war of that scale upon our species should be rejected from our society as aggressively as child molesters and Nazis.A new CNN report says multiple Biden administration officials “saw Iran’s attacks on Israel Saturday as disproportionate to Israel’s strikes in Damascus that prompted the retaliation.” There are zero reported fatalities as a result of the Iranian retaliation. The Israeli strikes on the Iranian embassy in Damascus killed 16 people, including multiple high-level Iranian military officials. To see Iran’s response as “disproportionate” is to admit you believe Israeli lives are worth literally orders of magnitude more than Iranian lives.And it was at an embassy, for god’s sake. Israel can assassinate 16 people while shattering decades of diplomatic norms, and in the eyes of the US that’s still not as bad as Iran creating a few potholes in an Israeli street.And anyway how obscene is it that these shitstains can babble about proportionality at all after backing Israel’s mass atrocities in Gaza? When Iran attacks the response needs to be proportionate, but when Israel incinerates Gaza over October 7 it’s “LMAO fuck around and find out, laughcry emoji, Israeli flag.”After six months of mass murder and chaos the only thing that looks more absurd than the claim that Israel is morally superior to other nations in the middle east is the claim that the United States is morally superior to other nations in the world.No matter how low your opinion was of western power structures and western civilization, if you’ve been watching events of the last six months with sincerity it will have sunk even lower by now.

Kirby says it will ‘be up to’ Israel on any response to Iranian attack - White House national security communications adviser John Kirby on Sunday said it would be up to Israel to decide how it moves forward after Iran launched a missile attack against Israel over the weekend. When pressed on “Fox News Sunday” if the Biden administration is advising Israel leaders about any retaliatory response, Kirby said, “I think…it’s going to be up to the Israelis to decide what the next step is here.” “I will just say this: President Biden — since the beginning of this conflict — has worked very hard to keep this from becoming a broader regional war, to keep the tensions from escalating,” Kirby continued. “Everything he’s done, everything he’s moved in the region, every decision, every discussion that he’s had is all designed to not let this become a broader regional war and that’s where his head is still,” he continued. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched dozens of missiles and drones toward Israel on Saturday following an alleged Israeli strike earlier this month that killed two IRGC officers near the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. The “vast majority” of the Iranian missiles were intercepted outside of the country by Israel’s air defenses and the assistance of allied forces, including that of the U.S. Tehran’s attack sparked concerns over a wider regional conflict as Israel’s war with Palestinian militant group Hamas rages on in Gaza. More than 33,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since Oct. 7, when Hamas launched a surprise assault against southern Israel.

Report: Israel Tells US It Has No Choice But To Respond to Iran - Axios reported on Monday that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallanttold Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Israel has no choice but to respond to Iran’s missile and drone attack, which came in retaliation for Israel’s bombing of Iran’s consulate in Damascus.Gallant and Austin spoke on Sunday after President Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US would not support an Israeli attack on Iran. The US is trying to portray the Iranian attack as a victory for Israel since most of the drones and missiles were intercepted with the help of the US, the UK, and Jordan, although some missiles got through and damaged an Israeli airbase.But the US is also reaffirming that it will continue to defend Israel if there is another escalation. According to the Pentagon, Austin told Gallant that the US “does not seek escalation,” but he added that the US will “continue to defend Israel.” Israeli TV reported on Monday that the Israeli War Cabinet convened again and agreed to respond to the Iranian attack “clearly and forcefully,” but there are no details on what the response would look like. The report said the attack would be designed to send the message that Israel will “not allow an attack of that magnitude against it to pass without a reaction.”Israel has a long history of carrying out covert attacks inside Iran, including assassinations, sabotage attacks on energy infrastructure, and small drone attacks. If Israel wants to launch a more significant attack on Iranian territory, such as carrying out airstrikes, it would likely need support from the US.Israel also has a history of killing Iranians in Syria and could potentially opt to do that again. The bombing of the Iranian consulate marked a huge escalation since it targeted a diplomatic facility and killed a senior Quds Force commander and six other members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).Iran is usually very restrained in its responses to Israeli attacks if it responds at all, but the consulate bombing clearly crossed a red line. The Iranian attack on Israel didn’t kill anyone but did injure a seven-year-old Bedouin girl in the Negev.

Israel's Latest Lie Is That It Has 'No Choice' But To Attack Iran -- by Caitlin Johnstone -- In an article titled “Israel vows to retaliate against Iran for missile attacks,” Axios reports that the Israeli defense minister has informed his American counterpart that Israel “has no choice” but to attack Iran for the retaliatory strike it launched in response to Israel’s deadly attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.“Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Sunday that Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend,” reports Axios, citing an anonymous US official and another unnamed source.The state of Israel has been churning out massive lies on a daily basis for the last six months, but this whopper could wind up being the most consequential.Obviously Israel has a choice as to whether it continues to escalate a conflict it initiated with an extreme act of aggression. This fraudulent apartheid ethnostate is so accustomed to crying victim every minute of every day that it will even pretend to be the victim of its own conscious decisions. As professor Jason Hickel put it on Twitter, “People need to understand that Israel *does not* need to retaliate. Iran’s action was a telegraphed response to Israel’s bombing of its consulate, which killed 16 people and violated the Vienna Convention. Iran says they now consider the matter closed. Israel must de-escalate.”Iran’s deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri has made it clear that if Israel launches another attack against Iran, this time Iran’s response will be instantaneous instead of a twelve-day grace period with Tehran giving neighboring countries and the United States a 72-hour advance warning to ensure minimal damage to Israel.Predictably, the Biden administration is doing its usual phony schtick where it pretends to be a passive witness to all this, with National Security spokesman John Kirby telling the press that the White House plans to just “wait and see what the Israelis decide to do.”

Stop Pretending Biden Is Some Passive Witness To Israel's Warmongering - by Caitlin Johnstone -- The more I think about it the more obnoxious I find the Biden administration’s “Gee whiz, I sure hope Israel doesn’t drag us into a giant war in the middle east” posturing and the imperial media’s facilitation of it. CNN has a new article out titled “As Iran attacks Israel, Biden confronts an escalating Middle East crisis he had hoped to avoid,” which is a genre of story that has been coming out in slightly different iterations again and again for the past six months. Every time Israel does something that makes things more dangerous in the middle east with the assistance of the United States, the American press fall all over themselves to inform the world that the president really doesn’t want this to happen and that his feelings are very upset about it. “For President Joe Biden, an attack on Israel launched from Iranian soil amounts to a scenario he’d greatly sought to avoid since the start of the current Middle East conflict,” writes CNN, saying the strikes “heighten the risk of a wider regional conflict that could directly draw in the United States, along with other countries.” “Israel will respond to Iran’s attack, but the scope of that response has yet to be determined,” CNN reports, citing an anonymous Israeli official. And it’s just such an obscene insult to our intelligence to suggest that the Biden administration is just some passive witness to all this, sitting around wringing its hands hoping Israel doesn’t do something so horrible that the United States will have no choice but to leap into World War Three in defense of its dear ally. It’s insulting in that it asks us to believe the US would have no choice but to enter into a war of unimaginable horror if Israel acts belligerently enough, and it’s insulting in that it asks us to ignore the fact that Biden could have ended this insane cycle of escalation with one phone call to Israel at any time over the last six months. Being asked to accept that the Biden administration is just standing there hoping Israel doesn’t ignite the worst war in middle eastern history is like seeing a dog owner letting their rottweiler run around biting people all over the neighborhood and saying “Yeah he just does what he likes, I just hope he doesn’t kill anybody.” It’s like, no. Stop that. You’re not just crossing your fingers and hoping Israel doesn’t do something monstrous, you’re letting them do whatever they want because that’s what you’re choosing to do. Israel’s entire existence is as dependent on US support as a scuba diver is on their oxygen tank, and as such the White House has essentially limitless leverage it can use to make Israel do as it pleases — and it has done so in the past. Hell it’s done so during this very Gaza assault, successfully commanding Israel to stop cutting off Gazan telecommunications and to start letting more aid trucks in to the enclave. If Biden truly didn’t want Israel to be turning the middle east into a hurricane of death and fire, he would stop it. He would put the damn dog on a leash.

Biden told Netanyahu U.S. won't support an Israeli counterattack on Iran -- U.S. won't support any Israeli counterattack against Iran, a senior White House official told Axios. Biden and his senior advisers are highly concerned an Israeli response to Iran's attack on Israel would lead to a regional war with catastrophic consequences, U.S. officials said.Iran launched attack drones and missiles against Israel on Saturday night local time in retaliation for an airstrike in Syria that killed a top Iranian general. "More than 200 drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles were fired from Iran," IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said. Most of the threats were intercepted outside of Israeli airspace, he said. A U.S. defense official earlier said U.S. forces in the region shot down Iranian-launched drones targeting Israel. Biden told Netanyahu the joint defensive efforts by Israel, the U.S. and other countries in the region led to the failure of the Iranian attack, according to the White House official. "You got a win. Take the win," Biden told Netanyahu, according to the official. The official said that when Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S. will not participate in any offensive operations against Iran and will not support such operations, Netanyahu said he understood. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke on Saturday with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant and asked that Israel notify the U.S. ahead of any response against Iran, a senior Israeli official said. Biden said in a statement after the call that the U.S. military moved aircraft and ballistic missile defense destroyers to the region over the course of the past week, which helped Israel take down nearly all of the incoming drones and missiles from Iran, Yemen, Syria and Iraq."I told Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel demonstrated a remarkable capacity to defend against and defeat even unprecedented attacks — sending a clear message to its foes that they cannot effectively threaten the security of Israel," Biden said. Biden said he is going to hold a call on Sunday with the G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran's attack."My team will engage with their counterparts across the region. And we will stay in close touch with Israel's leaders. And while we have not seen attacks on our forces or facilities today, we will remain vigilant to all threats and will not hesitate to take all necessary action to protect our people," Biden said.

Kirby calls idea Iran gave US warning about Israel attack ‘ridiculous’ -- White House national security communications adviser John Kirby on Monday disputed reports that Iranian officials provided the United States advance notice of the timing and targets of its attacks against Israel over the weekend. “This whole narrative out there that Iran passed us a message with what they were gonna do is ridiculous,” Kirby told reporters at a briefing. Kirby told reporters Iran had failed in its attack against Israel on Saturday, in which it launched hundreds of drones and missiles in response to an Israeli strike against an Iranian compound in Syria. Kirby was adamant the United States was not given any advance warning about the time frame or targets involved, instead crediting the capabilities of Israel and its partners with intercepting most of the missiles. Reuters reported Iran gave wide notice days in advance of its attack, citing Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials. All three nations are U.S. allies. “All I’m telling you is it’s nonsense,” Kirby said of those reports. “Can you imagine a world in which Iran would pick up the phone and say, ‘We’re about to try to shwack Israel with 300 cruise missiles and drones, we just wanted to let you know it’s coming and oh by the way, here’s what we’re going to hit,'” Kirby continued. “I’m sorry, it just didn’t happen. I can’t account for what sources might be telling you about what they heard. I’m telling you what we heard.”

UN Rights Office Says Israel Still Imposing 'Unlawful' Restrictions on Gaza Aid - The UN’s Human Rights Office said on Tuesday that Israel is still imposing “unlawful” restrictions on aid entering Gaza despite US and Israeli claims that there’s been an increase in deliveries, Reutersreported on Tuesday.After Israel slaughtered seven workers for the World Central Kitchen on April 1, Benjamin Netanyahu’s government made a commitment to allow more aid into the Strip, but the UN says aid levels are still way below the bare minimum of what’s needed.“Israel continues to impose unlawful restrictions on the entry and distribution of humanitarian assistance and to carry out widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure,” said Ravina Shamdasani, spokeswoman for the UN Human Rights Office.Shamdasani added that “those delivering or trying to access humanitarian assistance must never be attacked.” Last week, UNICEF workers reported that a vehicle they were traveling in was hit by Israeli gunfire, but nobody was hurt.Samantha Power, the head of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), has said she believes famine is already occurring in parts of northern Gaza due to the US-backed Israeli siege. Despite the acknowledgment from a high-level US official, the US continues to provide military aid and intelligence support to Israel and refuses to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. Less attention has been on the situation in Gaza in recent days following the Iranian attack on Israel, which came in response to Israel bombing an Iranian consulate in Damascus.

Cease-fire protesters block Brooklyn and Golden Gate bridges in coast-to-coast demonstrations - — Protesters of the war in Gaza shut down iconic bridges and roads from coast to coast on Monday, snarling traffic for hours as commuters were stranded in their cars. The demonstrations in New York City, Chicago, San Francisco and elsewhere came after top Democratic officials, including President Joe Biden and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, expressed their “ironclad” support for Israel following Iran’s missile and drone attacks on the country over the weekend. On San Francisco’s Golden Gate Bridge, protesters chained themselves to stationary vehicles in what the state highway patrol called an “intricate operation” to halt traffic in both directions. They carried a giant banner that read “STOP THE WORLD FOR GAZA” and another that stated “END THE SIEGE ON GAZA NOW.” About 20 people were arrested for impeding traffic on the bridge, according to the California Highway Patrol. Other protests targeted the Brooklyn Bridge in New York City and a road leading to the Chicago O’Hare International Airport. Pro-Palestinian protesters blocked auto traffic in one direction on the Brooklyn Bridge for about an hour on Monday afternoon. “It just feels really messed up carrying on with our lives as normal when there’s unbelievable violence and human suffering going on,” said Daphne Bissette, a New Yorker who has protested the war in Gaza with Jewish Voice for Peace. Elsewhere in the San Francisco Bay Area, protesters shut down Interstate 880 using “55-gallon drums filled with cement and heavy-duty chains” to attach protesters to the drums, according to the highway patrol. The freeway remained closed in both directions into the early afternoon, while arrests were underway. Organizers behind the protests, part of an international effort by anti-war groups, said blockades targeting roads and bridges on tax day reflect “a need to shift from symbolic actions to those that cause pain to the economy.” They accuse the U.S. and other major world powers of not doing enough to end the conflict in Gaza, which has killed more than 33,000 people, according to Gaza health authorities.

Republicans, Democrats call for immediate vote on military aid package after Iran strike on Israel - Nearly 100 House Democrats and Republicans are imploring Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to immediately bring the Senate-passed package that includes aid for Israel for a House vote, following Iran’s unprecedented attack on the country over the weekend. In a letter sent Sunday night, the lawmakers push for Johnson to put the Senate-passed $95 billion national security supplemental that includes military aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan on the floor Monday evening. “This weekend, the Iranian regime launched hundreds of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles directly against our key, democratic ally in the Middle East, Israel. Time is of the essence, and we must ensure critical aid is delivered to Israel and our other democratic allies facing threats from our adversaries around the world,” the lawmakers wrote. It was led by Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Joe Wilson (R-S.C.) and signed by 89 colleagues from both sides of the aisle. “We urge you to put the Senate Supplemental Aid package on the floor for an immediate vote when we return on Monday,” they wrote. “This aid package passed the Senate with 70 votes, Democrats and Republicans, and we can send it to the President’s desk for signature Monday night.” The lawmakers’ demand flies in the face of Johnson’s efforts to work around the Senate-passed package, balancing opposition from members of his own party and former President Trump, who holds significant influence over the GOP, for weeks. Johnson is trying to avoid a revolt in his own party, with Republican firebrands — most notably Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) — threatening a vote to oust the Speaker over her opposition to aid for Ukraine. Johnson met with Trump in Florida on Friday, and the presumptive Republican presidential nominee signaled openness to the House passing more military aid for Ukraine. Trump, however, called for that assistance to be delivered as a loan. More time would be needed to draft and vote on such changes to the Senate-passed legislation, further delaying what the 91 lawmakers say is the need for an immediate vote. But Trump’s support is important, allowing for Ukraine-aid opponents to soften their criticisms.

White House opposes stand-alone Israel aid bill following Iranian attack -The White House said Monday it would not support a stand-alone bill only providing aid to Israel in the wake of Iran’s recent attack, urging the House to pass a national security supplemental that included assistance for Ukraine, Israel and other allies. “We are opposed to a stand-alone bill that would just work on Israel, as we’ve seen proposed. We would oppose a stand-alone bill, yes,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Sunday the House would vote in the coming days on aid for Israel after it was the target of a drone and missile attack launched Saturday by Iran. “House Republicans and the Republican Party understand the necessity of standing with Israel,” Johnson said on Fox News. “We’re going to try again this week, and the details of that package are being put together. Right now, we’re looking at the options and all these supplemental issues.” The House had previously attempted to pass a stand-alone bill with aid for Israel in its fight against Hamas, but the effort failed to garner enough support. The White House has been for weeks urging the House to pass the $95 billion national security supplemental that made it through the Senate with bipartisan support. That bill contained aid for Ukraine and Israel, as well as U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific. Kirby on Monday stressed the urgency of the situation as Ukraine faces headwinds in its fight against Russia and after Israel came under attack from Iran.“Time is not on anyone’s side here in either case, so they need to move quickly on this,” Kirby said. “And the best way to get that aid into the hands of the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] and into the hands of the Ukrainian solders is to pass that bipartisan bill that the Senate passed.”

House changes schedule to consider Israel legislation next week - - The House of Representatives will change its schedule to consider legislation to support Israel in light of Iran’s Saturday attack and to hold Tehran accountable, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said on Saturday. “In light of Iran’s unjustified attack on Israel, the House will move from its previously announced legislative schedule next week to instead consider legislation that supports our ally Israel and holds Iran and its terrorist proxies accountable,” Scalise said in a Saturday post on X. “The House of Representatives stands strongly with Israel, and there must be consequences for this unprovoked attack,” he continued. “More details on the legislative items to be considered will be forthcoming.” The statement did not provide clarity as to whether the Louisiana Republican was making a reference to the $95 billion supplemental spending bill which encompasses $14 billion for Israel or the stand-alone bill for Israel. The $95 billion supplemental also includes $60 billion for Ukraine, funds for Taiwan and humanitarian assistance. It passed the Senate in February but has yet to be put on the lower chamber’s floor, where the package faces resistance from some hard-right Republican lawmakers since it includes funds for Ukraine. The supplemental bill is also not supported by some progressive House Democrats who oppose sending more money to Israel as the country continues its military campaign in Gaza against Hamas.

House Votes to Sanction China's Purchase of Iranian Oil - The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed legislation Monday aimed at countering China’s purchase of Iranian crude oil as part of a package of bills being brought to the floor in response to Iran’s attack on Israel. The legislation was approved by a 383-11 vote, surpassing the requisite number needed to overcome a presidential veto. The legislation moves to the Senate where it faces an uncertain fate. The bill, H.R. 5923, Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act of 2023, expands secondary sanctions against Iran to cover all transactions between Chinese financial institutions and sanctioned Iranian banks used to purchase of petroleum and petroleum products, according to a summary of the bill. The legislation also requires the US to make a determination annually whether Chinese financial institutions have engaged in sanctionable conduct. About 80% of Iran’s roughly 1.5 million barrels a day of oil exports are sent to independent refineries in China known as “teapots,” according to the summary. The bill, introduced by New York Republican Representative Mike Lawler, clarifies that any transaction by a Chinese financial institution for the purchase of oil from Iran qualifies as a “significant financial transaction” for sanctions purposes. The measure, unanimously approved by the House Financial Services Committee in November, is one of several Iran-related bills that were slated to be considered Monday under an expedited procedure typically used to pass legislation that has bipartisan support. The sanctions, if passed into law and enforced, could result in an increase of as much as 20 cent per gallon on gasoline prices, consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note to clients Monday.

House passes series of bills aimed at squeezing Tehran financially - The Republican-led House on Monday voted in favor of a series of bills aimed at squeezing Iran financially in response to an unprecedented drone and missile attack launched by the Islamic Republic against Israel over the weekend. Three separate bills were brought to the floor Monday under suspension of the rules, a fast-track process that requires two-thirds support for passage, allowing for floor votes to be taken immediately. The bills largely seek to impose financial penalties on Iran, those that support it and its network of proxies. Israel, in partnership with the U.S., the U.K., France, and allies in the Middle East, repelled a massive Iranian aerial assault launched Saturday night, shooting down what they said was 99 percent of nearly 300 drones and missiles. The bills voted for on Monday night are largely noncontroversial and enjoy support from a majority of Democrats. They include a bill to terminate the tax-exempt status of nonprofit organizations found to be supporting terrorist groups; legislation aimed at disrupting the Chinese purchase of Iranian oil and petroleum products; and an effort to cut off the Iranian government from using the U.S. financial system. But even as Democrats support this package of bills, they are critical of Republicans for failing for weeks to bring to a vote the Senate-passed $95 billion national security supplemental, which includes aid for not only Israel but also Ukraine and Taiwan. Rep. Brad Schneider (D-Ill.) expressed support for H.R. 6408 — a bill that would terminate the tax-exempt status of terrorist-supporting organizations, which he co-sponsored with Rep. David Kustoff (R-Tenn.). But Schneider pleaded with Republicans to bring the national security supplemental legislation to the floor. “I again want to thank my colleague, Rep. Kustoff, for his partnership and work on this legislation … and I urge all of my colleagues to not only support this legislation, but also, as we have said, to support the essential security funding that came from the Senate,” he said.

Qatar calls Hoyer’s criticism of its mediation efforts in Gaza ‘not constructive’ - Qatar called Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-Md.) criticism of the country’s mediation efforts in the Israel-Hamas war “not constructive” and rebuked the lawmaker for “threatening” to “reevaluate” the U.S. relationship with Doha. Hoyer stated on Monday that Qatar should signal to Hamas that “repercussions” will ensue if the militant Palestinian group stalls “progress” toward releasing the hostages held in Gaza and getting to a temporary cease-fire. “Qatar needs to make it clear to Hamas that there will be repercussions if it continues to block progress toward releasing the hostages and establishing a temporary ceasefire,” Hoyer said in a statement released Monday. “Consequences ought to include cutting off funding to Hamas or refusing to grant Hamas’ leaders refuge in Doha. If Qatar fails to apply this pressure, the United States must reevaluate its relationship with Qatar.” Qatar and Egypt are involved in negotiations for establishing a cease-fire in Gaza. The Qatari Embassy in the U.S. rebuked the senior Democratic lawmaker’s statement. “We share his frustration that Hamas and Israel have not reached an agreement on the release of the remaining hostages,” Qatar’s Embassy said in a statement released Tuesday. “But blaming and threatening the mediator is not constructive, especially when the target is a friend and Major Non-NATO Ally that presently hosts 10,000 US troops and America’s largest military presence in the Middle East.”Qatar said they do not “control” Israel or Hamas and that both parties are “entirely responsible” for getting to an agreement. They also shot back at the Maryland lawmaker’s proposal that Hamas should not be able to have refuge in Qatar. “It is certainly tempting to do as he suggests and walk away from seemingly intransigent parties,” the embassy said. “After all, neither of the warring parties does anything for Qatar. But it is useful to remember that Qatar’s mediation role exists only because we were asked by the U.S. in 2012 to play this role since, regrettably, Israel and Hamas refuse to speak to each other directly.”

Speaker Johnson unveils plan for Ukraine, Israel at closed-door GOP meeting -Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has unveiled his plan to move foreign aid through the House, pitching four separate bills to address aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other national security priorities. Johnson rolled out his proposal during a closed-door House GOP conference meeting on Monday, after months of delaying any decisions on the politically prickly topic. The plan — according to two GOP lawmakers at the meeting — is to move the four bills under one procedural rule that would allow for an amendment process. The fourth national security-related bill, according to one of the GOP lawmakers, would include a TikTok ban, a provision to allow the U.S. to use seized Russian assets to assist Ukraine, a lend-lease act for military aid and convertible loans for humanitarian relief. The current plan, however, does not include any border provisions, according to GOP Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), which could spark opposition among hard-line conservatives who have said any aid for Ukraine must be paired with legislation to address the situation at the southern border. “Not at this time,” Hern told reporters when asked if the current plan includes border security.

Speaker Johnson unveils plan for Ukraine, Israel at closed-door GOP meeting -- Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has unveiled an outline of his plan to move foreign aid through the House, pitching four separate bills to address aid for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and other national security priorities that he says will all get votes before the end of the week. The strategy sparked an immediate backlash from some conservative lawmakers who have demanded that any additional Ukraine aid be accompanied by tougher security on the U.S.-Mexico border — proposals excluded from Johnson’s legislative blueprint — raising questions about the viability of the Speaker’s plans. “A lot of conservatives are very upset about how this is going down,” said Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.). “He’s literally broken his promise.” Johnson rolled out his proposal during a closed-door House GOP conference meeting in the Capitol basement on Monday, after months of delaying any decisions on a politically prickly topic that’s splintered his party and threatened his gavel. The plan is first to move a procedural rule governing all four bills — Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan each get their own, with the fourth focusing on national security priorities. Each proposal would then be voted on separately, in contrast to the Senate’s $95 billion foreign aid legislation that combined the various elements into a single package. The fourth national security-related bill, according to Johnson, will include a proposal to help pay for Ukraine aid by seizing Russian assets; a plan to provide some of the aid in the form of loans; and new sanctions on Iran in the wake of Tehran’s weekend strikes on Israel. Another GOP lawmaker said it would also include a TikTok ban and convertible loans for humanitarian relief. Johnson’s piecemeal strategy offers the unique advantage of allowing lawmakers the opportunity to pick and choose which pieces of the Senate bill they’d like to support and which ones to oppose. To sweeten the deal further, he’s allowing for amendments to be offered on each proposal. “My phone melted over the weekend, with all the members letting me know all of their ideas,” Johnson told reporters after the closed-door meeting. “There was a consensus that was recognized, in my view, from all the opinions that were shared, and that is that it really was the will of my colleagues to vote on these measures independently and not have them all sandwiched together as the Senate had done.”

Speaker Johnson Says House Will Vote on More Israel Aid This Week - House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said Sunday that he will bring a bill to provide Israel with more military aid to the floor for a vote this week in response to Iran’s attack, which came in retaliation for Israel bombing Tehran’s consulate in Damascus.“House Republicans and the Republican Party understand the necessity of standing with Israel,” Johnson said in an interview withFox News. “We’re going to try again this week, and the details of that package are being put together. Right now, we’re looking at the options and all these supplemental issues.”It’s unclear if he plans to lump the Israeli aid in with spending for Ukraine. The House has yet to vote on a $95 billion foreign military aid bill that passed through the Senate and includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, and a few billion for Taiwan and other spending in the Asia Pacific region.Johnson previously pushed forward two standalone Israel aid bills to support the slaughter and starvation of Palestinians in Gaza, but they did not become law. One was for $14 billion that cut funding to the IRS to offset the cost, which passed the House but wasn’t taken up in the Senate. Another bill for $17.6 billion for Israel failed to pass a vote in the House that required a two-thirds majority.The $17.6 billion failed because Democrats didn’t want to pass it without the Ukraine aid. In the wake of the Iranian retaliation against Israel, a standalone bill would likely find more support in Congress.The additional military aid the US is looking to provide Israel is on top of the $3.8 billion it gets each year under a 10-year memorandum of understanding that was signed by the Obama administration.

Johnson Calls Himself a 'Wartime Speaker,' Will Push Ukraine Aid Despite Opposition - House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) called himself a “wartime speaker” on Tuesday as he defended himself after Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) called for his resignation over a plan to hold separate votes on military aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan.“We need steady leadership. We need steady hands on the wheel,” Johnson said at a press conference. “Look, I regard myself as a wartime speaker.”Massie said he would back Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-GA) plan to file a motion to vacate, which would trigger a vote to oust Johnson as speaker. If every Democrat votes against Johnson, only two Republican votes would be needed to oust him. Several House Democrats signaled they wouldn’t vote against Johnson if the bills he put forward included the total funding in the $95 billion foreign military aid bill that passed the Senate. The Senate’s $95 billion foreign military aid bill includes $60 billion for the proxy war in Ukraine, $14 billion to support the slaughter and starvation of Palestinians in Gaza, and a few billion for Taiwan and other spending in the Asia Pacific region. Other GOP members have expressed anger over Johnson’s plan to introduce the military aid bills without any changes to border policy, but it’s unclear if they would join Greene and Massie in voting against him.Johnson is also planning to put forward a fourth bill that could include a TikTok ban and give the federal government the ability to sell off frozen Russian assets to fund aid to Ukraine. The details are unclear, and the text of the bill is expected to be released late Tuesday.The White House has signaled its support for Johnson’s plan. “It does appear at first blush that the Speaker’s proposal will in fact help us get aid to Ukraine, aid to Israel and needed resources to the Indo-Pacific for a wide range of contingencies there. At first blush it looks like that, we just want to get more details,” said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.

Johnson takes plunge on Ukraine aid in face of ouster threat --Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is taking the plunge on a massive package of foreign aid that’s cleaved his conference and threatened his gavel, brushing off his detractors in a go-for-broke effort to help beleaguered allies overseas. Johnson has won early Democratic support for his multipronged strategy to provide military assistance to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, accompanied by a grab-all package of Republican national security priorities designed to appease wary conservatives within the House GOP. He’s vowing that all four components will get separate votes before the week is out. But the plan drew an immediate backlash from hard-liners in his conference, including spending hawks who don’t want to pile billions more onto the national debt; isolationists who want to focus Washington’s resources on domestic problems; and a wide spectrum of rank-and-file Republicans who have demanded that the legislation include tougher security at the southern U.S. border — a notable exclusion from the Speaker’s policy blueprint. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a frequent critic of the Speaker, has already introduced a motion to remove him from power — a resolution that’s hanging over the coming Ukraine votes, lying in wait for Greene to force it to the floor. And that threat became more menacing Tuesday, when Rep. Thomas Massie, a Kentucky Republican with a libertarian streak, announced he’d support Johnson’s removal if Greene’s resolution is activated. “Mike Johnson’s going for the Triple Crown here against our base,” Massie said. “He’s voted for an omnibus that spends more than [Nancy] Pelosi. He’s put his finger on the scales to pass [the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act] without warrants. And now he’s about to do Ukraine without protecting the American border. “Those are like three strikes.” The heightened threat has called attention to the precarious grip Johnson has on the House GOP, where the various ideological factions have been warring throughout the 118th Congress. Rebellious conservatives have already toppled one Speaker for defying their demands, and a hairline majority gives GOP leaders little room for error. Still, Johnson got a big boost last week when he appeared alongside former President Trump at Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s residential resort, where the presumptive presidential nominee hailed the embattled Speaker for “doing a very good job.” And Johnson himself has dismissed the ouster effort, calling it “absurd” and “not helpful.” “I am not concerned about this. I am going to do my job, and I think that’s what the American people expect of us,” he said.

McCarthy on Greene’s move to vacate Johnson: ‘I don’t think it’ll ever happen’ Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) poured cold water on the prospect of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) being ousted from his role, stating he does not think it “will ever happen.” “It makes a lot of good news, doesn’t it? But this is what I think … I don’t think it’ll ever happen,” McCarthy said Monday while speaking at an annual membership meeting of the American Hospital Association. “We just have to try to inspire. I think you just bring people in. I don’t believe this will ever happen. I don’t believe the Democrats will think it’s a smart thing to go along with it again,” he continued. “If you elect the Speaker, have him serve the job,” he added. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) filed a motion to vacate the Speakership last month after Johnson helped pass a spending package to avert a partial government shutdown. The motion was the same maneuver used to oust McCarthy last October, shortly after he supported a deal for a 45-day budget extension to avoid a government shutdown last September. That effort was led by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who cited the national debt and broken promises made to the House GOP. Greene has recently ramped up pressure on Johnson for his handling of government funding and his pledge to bring Ukraine aid to the floor, arguing the House should be focused on the U.S. southern border instead. Johnson indicated he plans to bring Ukraine aid to the House floor sometime after the chamber’s latest recess, though the issue could prove challenging amid conservative opposition. It remains unclear what form the bill could look like or how he plans to alter a $95 billion Senate bill that would combine aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with humanitarian help for Gaza. . Greene and Johnson met last week but failed to come to an agreement on these policy differences. The Georgia Republican said last week she will not give Johnson a red line or ultimatum about what would motivate her to force a vote on the motion to vacate, noting she wants to be “considerate” of her conference. The meeting did not clarify her timing on when she plans to move forward, she added.

Third House Republican backs Johnson ouster -Rep. Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) announced Friday that he will co-sponsor Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) resolution to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from the House’s top job, becoming the third House Republican to back his ouster. Gosar, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, revealed his support for dismissing Johnson minutes after the House — with help from Democrats — advanced a foreign aid package that omitted border security provisions. Gosar referenced that omission in his statement backing the ouster effort. “I have added my name in support of the motion to vacate the Speaker,” Gosar said. “Our border cannot be an afterthought. We need a Speaker who puts America first rather than bending to the reckless demands of the warmongers, neocons and the military industrial complex making billions from a costly and endless war half a world away.” Gosar is the third Republican to back Johnson’s removal, after Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) endorsed Greene’s resolution earlier in the week. It’s unclear, however, how threatened Johnson’s job actually is. Greene introduced her removal resolution last month, but she has neither forced it to the floor for a vote nor stipulated what might prompt her to do so. While Greene railed this week against Johnson’s approach to the Ukraine debate, she stopped short of committing to bring her resolution to the floor. “I’m a responsible person,” she said Thursday, her resolution in hand. Conservatives have long been critical of Johnson’s management of the House since he took the Speaker’s gavel in October, following the removal of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). The GOP critics have accused him of being too willing to cut deals with President Biden and the Democrats on major legislation, including efforts to fund the federal government and extend Washington’s surveillance powers — two issues that Johnson ushered through the lower chamber in recent weeks. The Ukraine debate has fit that same mold, as Johnson has endorsed a package of four bills combining aid for Kyiv, Israel and Taiwan with humanitarian assistance for Gaza and other war zones around the globe. The Ukraine portion is opposed by hard-liners in his conference wary of deficit spending and getting the U.S. bogged down in another long, costly and unwinnable war. They’re also up in arms that Johnson, after demanding that any foreign aid be accompanied by tougher security measures at the southern U.S. border, abandoned that stipulation in announcing his foreign aid strategy earlier in the week.

Senate Democrats open to Speaker Johnson’s foreign aid plan, but landmines loom - Senate Democrats say they’re open to the possibility of backing the foreign aid proposal emerging from the House, even as they raise concerns about potential landmines in Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) plan. Democrats — and a number of Senate Republicans — have loudly called for Johnson to take up the national security supplemental that passed the upper chamber with a wide, bipartisan vote two months ago, saying it would be the fastest way to get aid to allies like Ukraine and Israel. But Johnson, who is facing a right-wing mutiny and a threat of being removed via a motion to vacate, this week announced his own blueprint. Democrats are by no means ecstatic about Johnson’s maneuver, but they seem prepared to accept it to help Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. “Nothing that goes on in the House makes any sense,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said. “But if that’s a way that the Speaker is going to get aid to Ukraine in front of House members, who by a large majority would support it … then OK.” “But get it done fast. [Ukraine is] running out of ammunition,” Warren continued. He proposed individual bills to give aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, with a fourth aimed at banning TikTok that could include a potpourri of GOP-backed ways to pay for the Ukraine aid. All of those would be passed one by one in the chamber before being bundled and sent to the Senate as one larger item. The text of the four bills hadn’t been released as of print time, but a number of items are already concerning Senate Democrats. Headlining that list is the possible elimination or minimization of humanitarian assistance for Gaza and other hot spots around the world. The legislation the Senate passed in February gave $9.2 billion for food, medical supplies and other humanitarian aid for Gaza, Ukraine and other affected areas. Democrats on Tuesday indicated a cut to that number could force them to spurt the House’s offer. “That would be an enormous problem for our conference,” Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) told The Hill. “Humanitarian assistance is a real deal breaker I would think.” Another big potential concern for Democrats, and some Republicans, is the possibility of reducing the total amount of Ukraine aid from the $60 billion the Senate allocated. Top backers of Kyiv are quick to note that the country is running toward empty on ammunition and is being forced to ration bullets and other war materials to keep up the fight against Russia. That was on display last week as Ukraine was unable to stop an airstrike by Russian forces that destroyed the biggest power plant in the greater Kyiv region.

House advances Ukraine, Israel aid as Dems help Speaker Johnson, GOP - The House advanced legislation Friday to send aid to Ukraine and other embattled U.S. allies overseas, clearing a key procedural hurdle after Democrats stepped in to back the measure — a rare move by the minority party, but one that was crucial to nudge the package forward in the face of fierce conservative opposition. The chamber approved the foreign aid rule in a 316-94 vote, opening up debate on a quartet of bills combining military aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan with humanitarian assistance to Gaza and other global war zones. The successful rule tees up final passage of all four measures, which are scheduled to hit the floor in separate votes Saturday afternoon. The advancement brings Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) one step closer to passing an explosive foreign aid package that has been the subject of intense debate within the Capitol — and his conference — for months amid dire warnings from lawmakers, U.S. officials and foreign figures that Kyiv’s beleaguered forces need more U.S. assistance. But the bipartisan vote is sure to land Johnson in more hot water with his right flank, which has sharply criticized the package — both for the billions of dollars in Ukraine aid and the exclusion of border security — and have long denounced the Speaker’s tendency to work with Democrats to advance key priorities including, now, foreign assistance. Highlighting those internal tensions, three Republicans on the House Rules Committee had voted against the rule on the panel late Thursday night, and 55 conservatives voted against it again when it hit the House floor Friday morning. The House Freedom Caucus released an official position Thursday urging all Republicans to oppose the rule. The internal opposition to what has historically been a standard procedural matter has become its own routine this Congress, as conservatives have sought to press GOP leaders to fight harder for Republican priorities — the dynamic that led to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) last October. But despite the drama, Johnson’s job appears safe — for now. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has filed a resolution to oust the Speaker, but she has not said when she plans to trigger a vote on it. And Thursday, even as she railed against Johnson’s handling of the Ukraine debate, she said she’s not ready to force her vacate resolution to the floor. “I’m not acting out of emotions or rash feelings or anger,” Greene said. “I’m doing this the right way, and I’m allowing my conference to see exactly what I saw months ago.” Lending Johnson a huge boost — and perhaps a job-security lifeline — former President Trump threw his support behind the Speaker during a joint appearance at Mar-a-Lago last week, a vote of confidence that has muddied Greene’s path forward in her ouster effort. Even if she does force a vote to remove Johnson, Democrats are likely to step in and save him. A number of Democrats in recent months have said that if the Speaker moves aid for Ukraine, they will protect him from a conservative coup. Some have predicted there are dozens of Democrats in that camp.

GOP lawmaker blames ‘Gaetz and 7 useful idiots’ for House turmoil - Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) blamed Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and “seven useful idiots” for turmoil in the House, saying Thursday their success in ousting former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) last fall is a direct cause of today’s problems for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Lawler criticized members of his own party for weakening Johnson’s negotiation powers in the battle over aid to Ukraine and Israel, which is moving through the House this week over the objections of some conservatives. “Some of these folks have nobody to blame but themselves for why Speaker Johnson’s hand in negotiations has been weakened,” Lawler told CNN’s Anderson Cooper during his Thursday night appearance on “AC360.” “It’s their actions that have done that.” “I look at this very simply,” he said. “In October, the House was thrown into chaos by Matt Gaetz and seven useful idiots that teamed up with him within the Republican Conference and 208 Democrats.” “And at this moment — when you see what happened in the aftermath of vacating the chair and Israel attacked in a terrorist attack a week later, to do that again would be detrimental to the country and global security.” The House is gearing up for a Saturday vote on a complicated plan to advance a foreign aid package including dollars for Ukraine and Israel. Republicans who oppose the plan have voiced frustration, and two GOP lawmakers, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (Ga.) and Thomas Massie (Ky.), have said they’d back a motion to oust Johnson. The two have not been willing to trigger that motion so far. McCarthy was booted from his Speakership last fall when Gaetz and seven other House GOP members voted with Democrats to remove the California Republican from his post, a move that paralyzed the lower chamber for three weeks. Lawler projected confidence that foreign aid legislation will pass the House despite the threats against Johnson. “The foreign aid bill will pass,” Lawler told Cooper. “It must pass,” he continued. “The United States has an obligation as leader of the free world to support our allies at this most critical juncture and to make it clear to our adversaries that we will not tolerate their actions and what they have done to undermine and destabilize the free world.” The House Rules Committee late Thursday advanced a package of foreign aid bills, but only with the help of Democrats, a rare sight. Three GOP members of the panel, Massie and Reps. Chip Roy (Texas) and Ralph Norman (S.C.) opposed the effort.

Jeffries: Biden not weighing in on whether Democrats should save Johnson - House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Friday the White House is not advising Democratic leaders on whether to save Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) from a conservative coup — if one emerges. A number of Democrats are already on record saying they’d help keep Johnson in power if his hard-line detractors try to topple him over frustrations with his bipartisan deal-making — a Democratic rescue mission Jeffries has acknowledged, though without endorsing it himself. On Friday, Jeffries said President Biden has not weighed in on the issue. Asked if that means the White House is leaving the decision entirely up to House Democrats, Jeffries didn’t hesitate. “That’s correct,” he said. “And that was also the case in October of last year” — a reference to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), which was supported by every voting Democrat. The Democrats’ approach to Johnson has been different. After Johnson was threatened by conservatives for cutting deals with Biden on federal spending and government surveillance, a number of Democrats said they’d vote to save the Speaker if one of those hard-liners brings a removal resolution to the floor. Their stipulation? He would have to usher a foreign aid package — including billions of dollars for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and humanitarian aid in Gaza — through the House, where it has been stuck for months. This week, Johnson brushed aside his conservative critics to champion that foreign aid legislation, which advanced through the House on Friday and is expected to win final passage on Saturday with broad bipartisan support. It’s unclear if Johnson’s decision to defy his right flank will result in a bid to remove his gavel. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has already introduced a motion-to-vacate resolution, which has the support of two additional Republicans: Reps. Thomas Massie (Ky.) and Paul Gosar (Ariz.). But Greene has not said when — or even if — she intends to force a vote on the measure.

US General Says Russia's Military Is Bigger Than Before Ukraine Invasion - A top US general told Congress last week that Russia’s military is 15% bigger today than it was before the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, an acknowledgment that the goal of “weakening” Russia has failed.“The army is actually now larger — by 15% — than it was when it invaded Ukraine,” Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the head of US European Command, told a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing.Cavoli said that over the past year, Russia had increased its “front-line troop strength from 360,000 to 470,000,” which he said was due to Russia raising the maximum age of conscription from 27 to 30.“In sum, Russia is on track to command the largest military on the continent,” he said. “Regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Russia will be larger, more lethal, and angrier with the West than when it invaded.” Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell recently made similar comments, saying the US had “assessed over the course of the last couple of months that Russia has almost completely reconstituted militarily.”Back in April 2022, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin declared one goal of the proxy war was to “weaken” Russia. More recently, hawks in Congress have been claiming that the damage being done to the Russian military is a good enough reason to continue fueling the conflict.Besides bolstering its military, Russia has also increased its industrial capabilities and is producing nearly three times as many artillery shells than the US and Europe combined, demonstrating that time is on Moscow’s side in the conflict.

US, Chinese Defense Chiefs Talk for First Time Since 2022 - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with Chinese Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun, marking the first communication between the two nations’ defense chiefs since November 2022.High-level military communication between the US and China has been impeded for several reasons, including US sanctions on Dong’s predecessor, Li Shangfu, who was removed in October 2023 amid rumors that he was under investigation for corruption. While Li served as China’s defense minister, the Biden administration refused to lift sanctions that were imposed on him in 2018 over a Chinese purchase of Russian military equipment.The conversation between Austin and Dong came amid soaring tensions between the US and China over the South China Sea, where Philippine and Chinese vessels have been having frequent tense encounters near disputed rocks and reefs. Last week, President Biden hosted Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to boost trilateral military cooperation in the name of countering China.According to the Pentagon, Austin and Dong discussed the South China Sea, the war in Ukraine, and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. Austin made clear that the US would continue to operate its military in the South China Sea and other sensitive areas near China. “The Secretary also reiterated that the United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate – safely and responsibly – wherever international law allows,” the Pentagon said.The US and Chinese militaries have also been engaging more at a lower level after a long period of virtually no communication. China suspended military talks with the US following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s ultra-provocative trip to Taiwan in August 2022, which provoked the largest-ever Chinese military drills around the island.

FBI says Chinese hackers preparing to attack US infrastructure (Reuters) - Chinese government-linked hackers have burrowed into U.S. critical infrastructure and are waiting "for just the right moment to deal a devastating blow," FBI Director Christopher Wray said on Thursday. An ongoing Chinese hacking campaign known as Volt Typhoon has successfully gained access to numerous American companies in telecommunications, energy, water and other critical sectors, with 23 pipeline operators targeted, Wray said in a speech at Vanderbilt University. China is developing the "ability to physically wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure at a time of its choosing," Wray said at the 2024 Vanderbilt Summit on Modern Conflict and Emerging Threats. "Its plan is to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic." Wray said it was difficult to determine the intent of this cyber pre-positioning which was aligned with China's broader intent to deter the U.S. from defending Taiwan. China claims democratically governed Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan strongly objects to China's sovereignty claims and says only the island's people can decide their future. Earlier this week, a Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said, Volt Typhoon was in fact unrelated to China's government, but is part of a criminal ransomware group. In a statement, China's Embassy in Washington referred back to the MFA spokesperson's comment. "Some in the US have been using origin-tracing of cyberattacks as a tool to hit and frame China, claiming the US to be the victim while it's the other way round, and politicizing cybersecurity issues." Wray said China's hackers operated a series of botnets - constellations of compromised personal computers and servers around the globe - to conceal their malicious cyber activities. Private sector American technology and cybersecurity companies previously attributed Volt Typhoon to China, including reports by security researchers with Microsoft and Google.

Passing the national security supplemental is about preventing war with China by Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi This week, an existential question is being asked of Congress: do we stand with our allies to deter aggression, or do we cede the global stage to the likes of Russia, Iran and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)? That’s exactly what the upcoming vote on the Biden administration’s national security supplemental is about. Recent polling shows that a majority of American voters think there is a 50-50 chance of war with China. From the same study, almost 80 percent believe we should focus more on avoiding war with China, not preparing for one. Let’s not mince words: Voting for the supplemental means averting war. Voting against the supplemental means a world of emboldened authoritarianism and diminished U.S. leadership on the global stage, inviting further armed conflict initiated by aggressors from Tehran to Beijing. Funding the supplemental prevents war with the CCP in three ways. First, the supplemental has real substance to combat CCP aggression and ensure the CCP does not dangerously miscalculate. The proposed $2 billion in foreign military financing for the Indo-Pacific and $1.9 billion to replenish weapons and provide training to Taiwan are particularly important to deter the CCP’s aggression. The bill also provides billions toward our historic AUKUS relationship with Australia and the UK. These funds will directly contribute to the free world’s extended deterrence to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Second, the House’s consideration of the national security supplemental comes at a time of immense potential for locking in our diplomatic partnerships, especially with Indo-Pacific nations facing CCP intimidation. Just like us, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines are Pacific nations. On a daily basis these countries face destabilizing threats and intimidation from the CCP. The windshields of Philippine coast guard ships have been blown out by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) water cannons. Taiwan’s air defense identification zone is constantly buzzed by PLA jets. AndJapanese officials have been threatened by the CCP for promising to uphold peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. It’s time the U.S. reaffirm our own commitments to our allies and partners—by passing the national security supplemental. We can’t just talk the talk. We must walk the walk. And third, passing the national security maintains peace and stability implicitly. I recently returned from a bipartisan congressional delegation to Taiwan. Interestingly, the No. 1 question every person we met with was if we would pass aid to Ukraine. Why? Because they see it as vital to sending a message to Beijing to deter military aggression against Taiwan. Standing with Ukraine means standing with our Indo-Pacific partners. We cannot be tough on the CCP and weak on defending Ukraine.

China steels itself for new front in trade war after US proposes tariffs on metals - US complains China hurts shipbuilding, steel firms Asia Times. - The Biden administration has unveiled a series of new measures to try to protect the United States’ shipbuilding and steel industries from being eroded by Chinese overcapacity and non-market investments. One of the measures is a newly-initiated investigation, under section 301 of the Trade Act, of China’s maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. Another, still at the potential stage, would be a hike of the current 7.5% tariff rate on Chinese steel and aluminum imports.These moves are contrary to the previous approach of US President Joe Biden, who had in 2018-2019 criticized then President Donald Trump for imposing an extra 25% tariff on Chinese manufacturing goods.At that time, Trump accused China of having stolen millions of US jobs by manipulating its currency. Biden said then that extra tariffs would only cause losses for American farmers, manufacturers and consumers by making them pay more.After he took office in January 2021, however, Biden did not cancel the additional tariffs.“China’s overcapacity and non-market investments in the steel and aluminum industries mean high-quality US products have to compete with artificially low-priced alternatives produced with higher carbon emissions,” the Biden administration saidin a statement published on Wednesday.The administration said it recognizes growing concerns that unfair Chinese trade practices, including flooding the market with below-market-cost steel, are distorting the global shipbuilding market and eroding competition. It said Biden is calling on US Trade Representative Katherine Tai to consider tripling the existing section 301 tariff rate on Chinese steel and aluminum, and is also directing his team to prevent China and other countries from evading tariffs on steel and aluminum that are imported from Mexico into the US. On March 12, five national labor unions in the US complained in a petition that the US commercial shipbuilding sector has lost tens of thousands of jobs and more than 70% of its shipyards since 1975. They said unfair trade practices of China, which is now the world’s largest shipbuilding nation, comprise the biggest obstacle to the recovery of the shipbuilding sector in the US.

Will the American Oligarchy Accept Limits or Choose World War Three? -- I recently came across this piece from the Century Foundation titled “A Bolder American Foreign Policy Means More Values and Less War.” Its central argument is that the US must “recenter values” like “multilateralism and human rights that are core to its identity.” The Century Foundation calls itself a “a progressive, independent think tank,” and this particular piece appears to mean well but is just as disconnected from reality than all the neocon think tanks’ war mongering policy papers saying Washington will prevail as it takes on Russia, China, Iran, and whoever else it feels like. The Century Foundation authors possess a Hollywoodized idea of America that isn’t a land filled with brutal class struggle but virtue, which flow out into its foreign policy that stands for international humanitarian or human rights law. I think anyone with a basic understanding of current events or recent history knows how ridiculous this is, and yet it is repeated ad nauseam by every purported think tank. I suppose this is a classic example of Upton Sinclair’s saying that “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it,” but I think the Century Foundation is onto something with its focus on values. It’s just that it has it backwards. The problem is that values are what has the US on the brink of starting World War III in multiple locations. I think the story of former US President Herbert Hoover is instructive. He had interests in mines in Russia until they were seized by the Bolsheviks. [1] Hoover never forgot about it and remained terrified of Communists for the rest of his life – and for good reason considering how much he stood to lose.Though Hoover got booted out of office in 1932, he played a central role in organizing capitalists to counter worker organization both in the US and abroad. His legacy lives on at Stanford’s neocon Hoover Institution. Throughout his life, he remained a major admirer of pre-Soviet Russia: “At the top was a Russian noble family and at the bottom 100,000 peasants and workers with nobody much in between but the priesthood and the overseers.”That pretty much sums up the capitalist class’ enduring vision not just for Russia, but everywhere. Ownership of Russian mines or Opium Wars in China might not factor much into my or your everyday life, but you can bet it’s an important part of American ruling class ideology. Whose values? The dominant value at play there is a belief that as Western capitalists they have a right and a duty to exploit and profit off of every corner of the globe. Just like capital must dominate labor, it must expand and find new sources of revenue. If governments in Russia and China impede that progress, they must be destroyed. Rather than bromides like more American “values,” the following are some questions or thought exercises for think tanks to consider – whether they want to win another war or maybe even quit starting so many of them.

Musk speaks out against effort to ban TikTok: ‘Not what America stands for’ -- Billionaire tech mogul Elon Musk spoke out against the effort to ban TikTok in the U.S., saying it would be in conflict with the First Amendment and it is “not what America stands for.” Musk added that while the ban would likely benefit the social platform X — which he purchased in October 2022 — he doesn’t support the ban. “In my opinion, TikTok should not be banned in the USA, even though such a ban may benefit the X platform,” Musk wrote Friday. “Doing so would be contrary to freedom of speech and expression. It is not what America stands for.” The Tesla CEO’s position on the issue comes just days after House GOP leaders unveiled a bill centered on national security priorities, which includes language that would prohibit TikTok use in the U.S. if its Chinese parent company — ByteDance — fails to divorce its operations from the Chinese Communist Party within 12 months.The modified provision would extend ByteDance’s time to sell the app from six months to a year, an adjustment that was welcomed by Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.). Cantwell announced Wednesday she would support the modification, a key development for the legislation to get more support in the upper chamber. The Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversarial Controlled Applications Act, the initial bill to ban the platform, was introduced last month. It passed the House only a week after it was introduced, but has gotten pushback, even from former President Trump. “I’m very happy that Speaker [Mike] Johnson [R-La.] and House leaders incorporated my recommendation to extend the ByteDance divestment period from six months to a year,”Cantwell said Wednesday. “As I’ve said, extending the divestment period is necessary to ensure there is enough time for a new buyer to get a deal done. I support this updated legislation.”

New NPR CEO Gave Ted Talk Asserting "Truth" Is A "Distraction" -- New NPR CEO Katherine Maher gave a Ted Talk during which she asserted that “truth” is a “distraction” which is “getting in the way of getting things done.” Calls are growing for NPR to have its government funding withdrawn after a series of tweets by Maher were uncovered in which she supported far-left causes, including endorsing racial reparations and making claims that the planet is “burning.”But the content of the Ted Talk she gave is raising even more eyebrows.Maher ludicrously suggested during the speech that far-left Wikipedia had a model “which actually works really well” in determining “what the truth really is.”Acknowledging that Wikipedia writers are “not focused on the truth, they’re focused on something else, which is the best of what we can know right now,” Maher suggested the “truth” was not a priority.“In fact, our reverence for the truth might be a distraction that’s getting in the way of finding common ground and getting things done,” she said.Maher went on to claim “there are many different truths” based on the feelings, environment and perception of different individuals.

House approves contentious FISA bill in bipartisan vote - The House in a bipartisan vote reauthorized the nation’s warrantless surveillance powers Friday, approving the program for another two years even as lawmakers narrowly declined to attach an amendment that would require a warrant for some searches. The chamber cleared the bill — which will extend and reform Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) — in a 273-147 vote. Congress is staring down an April 19 deadline to reauthorize the spying powers. Consideration of the FISA legislation made for dramatic scenes on the House floor Friday. Minutes before final passage, the chamber voted down an amendment 212-212 that would have added a warrant requirement for Americans’ data swept up in foreign surveillance. In the House, a tie loses. That amendment, led by Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), had emerged as the central disagreement in the FISA debate, pitting privacy hawks on the Judiciary Committee — who were in favor of the provision — against members of the Intelligence Committee and the White House, who opposed it. Approval of the amendment would have raised serious questions about the FISA bill’s fate in the Senate and White House. Then, as Rep. Jake Ellzey (R-Texas) — who was presiding over the chamber — gaveled out the vote, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) yelled out “I object.” Seconds later, Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Fla.) — the sponsor of the legislation — offered a motion to reconsider the vote. Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the chair of the House Intelligence Committee, then offered a motion to table the motion to reconsider. But the vote on the motion to table the motion to reconsider was postponed to a later date. The FISA bill will be unable to move to the Senate until that vote happens, even though it passed through the House. Passage of the FISA legislation nonetheless marks a win for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who had struggled for months to facilitate compromise among two warring factions on the controversial topic of reauthorizing the U.S.’s warrantless surveillance authority. Those disagreements led to a short-term extension in December, caused Johnson to scrap plans to vote on a reform bill in February, and prompted 19 Republicans to tank a procedural vote for a reauthorization measure Wednesday — hours after former President Trump urged lawmakers to “KILL FISA” in a statement on Truth Social — dealing an embarrassing blow to the Speaker. After eleventh-hour negotiations between the GOP holdouts and leadership on Thursday, Johnson agreed to change the FISA reauthorization from five years to two years, keep a vote on the warrant requirement amendment and hold a vote in the near future on a separate data privacy bill, which was enough to get the hard-liners to agree to open the legislation up for debate. But even with FISA off Johnson’s to-do list, the road ahead is rocky for the Speaker as he looks poised to barrel into a contentious debate over sending additional aid to Ukraine, which has bedeviled his Speakership since he won the gavel in October.

House sends foreign surveillance reform bill to Senate - The House on Monday settled its procedural business on a bill to reform the nation’s warrantless surveillance powers, kicking the controversial reauthorization over to the Senate. The Monday vote came after a tie in the chamber on an amendment that would have added a warrant requirement to Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). The push by privacy hawks was down to the wire, failing with a 212-212 vote. Two representatives then offered competing motions on whether to reconsider the issue, pushing the House to again consider the FISA bill after otherwise approving it without a warrant requirement on Friday. Lawmakers voted 259-128 Monday to table the motion to again take up the bill. The vote leaves the reauthorization bill heading to the Senate without a warrant requirement that united some firebrand conservatives with progressive Democrats. Section 702 empowers the nation’s intelligence agencies to spy only on noncitizens living abroad. But in the course of those operations, the government frequently sweeps up communications from Americans in contact with the foreigners under surveillance. While those in favor of a warrant said it was necessary to protect Americans’ Fourth Amendment rights, those opposed argued it was not legally required and would gut the bill, stopping law enforcement from acting on information in real time. The bill reauthorizes FISA 702 for another two years and includes some reforms to the program, including a drastic winnowing of the number of personnel who can authorize use of the 702 database to query information relating to a U.S. person. Such queries will also now get an after-the-fact audit. “It is best understood as the most comprehensive set of reforms in the history of the 702 program. This is a true reform bill that will change the way we do business, especially the FBI, in a way that will be more protective of civil liberties and privacy,” a senior Justice Department official told The Hill Monday. In the Senate, the bill likewise faces opposition from those wishing to see stronger reforms. “This bill represents one of the most dramatic and terrifying expansions of government surveillance authority in history,” Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), a member of the chamber’s Intelligence Committee who has pushed for reforms to Section 702, wrote on social platform X shortly after the passage of the House bill. “I will do everything in my power to stop it from passing in the Senate.”

Senate privacy hawks push to kill House amendment to warrantless surveillance bill Senators on both sides of the aisle are banding together to try and kill a House-passed addition to the bill reauthorizing Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) that they argue would force more businesses to aid in government surveillance of foreigners. An amendment from Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and others would strike from the bill a House provision that redefines what types of communications companies would have to comply with the law. The House amendment from Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) was intended to address a mysterious battle by the government to get one unnamed communications company to aid in overseas surveillance, with the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) determining a change in law was the only way to force compliance. A one-pager from House Intelligence Democrats said the measure is “designed to respond to a very specific (and classified) fact pattern.” But opponents argue the provision was written far too broadly and risks sweeping in a number of businesses. “The administration says it’s going after a narrower set of companies, but they can’t talk about it because it’s all secret. That’s not how laws, especially surveillance authorities, should be written,” Wyden, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said on the Senate floor Friday morning. “Jamming through a last minute provision that dramatically expands surveillance authorities in a way that could affect almost any American is the height of irresponsibility.” The provision of the bill shifts the definition of electronic communications service providers, but notes that restaurants, hotels and businesses that serve the public would not be required to comply with Section 702 surveillance. “The exceptions in the provision are designed to cover every concern that has been raised. It carves out any type of food service, any type of public accommodation, every type of dwelling — homes, apartment buildings — every type of community facility, from libraries to hospitals, to recreational facilities and day care centers,” a senior Justice Department official previously told The Hill. “Claims that this is a broad expansion of the authority are just incorrect.” But Wyden argued Friday that even if those businesses were exempt, those who supply communications equipment or services for them may not be. “Under this provision, landlords, the companies that maintain the cables and wifi, and any number of companies whose employees have access to any of that equipment can all be forced to cooperate with the government’s surveillance,” Wyden said.

FISA bill stalls over Senate amendment fight hours before deadline A bill to reauthorize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act’s (FISA) warrantless spying program stalled in the Senate on Friday because of a fight over amendments that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) worries could pass and send the bill back to the House. Senators and Senate aides in both parties now say that FISA’s Section 702 authority is likely to lapse at midnight because Schumer isn’t close to giving colleagues who want amendments a chance to vote on their proposals. In return, senators who want changes to the bill are refusing to yield back floor time to allow a final vote before FISA’s expanded surveillance power under Section 702 expires at the stroke of midnight. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a member of the Senate GOP leadership team and a senior member of the Intelligence Committee, said the warrantless surveillance program is likely to “go dark” because of the Senate stalemate. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told reporters Friday afternoon that Schumer may not even have the 60 votes he needs to advance the intelligence authorization bill to a final vote unless he agrees to let senators vote on amendments. Cramer and Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) have sponsored an amendment that would require the government to obtain court approval before accessing the content of Americans’ private communications swept up in the Section 702 surveillance. It has a good chance of passing. “What’s getting me … is they’re clearly afraid it will pass. What really offends me is that they don’t let us vote on anything that might pass that alters their plan. And by doing such, they’re demonstrating that they know better than we know, that yes there are 100 senators, but only one or two should determine what we have the right to vote on because something might pass,” Cramer said. “All amendment deals around here start with the premise, ‘Whip it first, make sure it won’t pass, then let them vote on it,’” he said. “If that’s the case, why do we have the most deliberative body in the world made up with 100 people each with one vote? We can all just go home and let Chuck Schumer do whatever the White House tells them.”

White House will 'make sure gas prices remain affordable' heading into summer, Biden advisor says --President Joe Biden’s top economic advisor said Thursday the White House will “make sure gas prices remain affordable” when asked whether the administration would consider tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.There are of course things that have been done in the past and we’ll continue to very closely monitor, make sure that gas prices remain affordable for so many American families going into the summer driving season,” National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard said at Semafor’s World Economy Summit.Gasoline futures have risen nearly 29% this year with prices at the pump currently averaging $3.67 a gallon, according to the motorist association AAA. U.S. crude oil has gained 15% year to date on stronger demand, tighter supplies due to OPEC+ production cuts and mounting geopolitical risks in the MidEast and Eastern Europe.“We’re highly attentive to the international oil markets and domestic gas prices. We’ll continue to monitor closely and want to make sure that those gas prices remain in current ranges,” Brainard said. U.S. crude oil hit a high of $87.67 per barrel this year before pulling back to around $83 a barrel.Iran’s unprecedented weekend air assault on Israel has raised fears that an Israeli counterattack could trigger a wider war in the region that impacts crude oil supplies. The White House is keeping a close eye on “geostrategic risk” in the Middle East, Brainard said. And Ukraine’s repeated drone strikes on Russian oil refineries also have the Biden administration concerned about their effect on prices. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Congress last week that those attacks could have “a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation.” White House climate advisor John Podesta said Tuesday that Biden “will do what he can to make sure” gasoline is affordable, noting that the administration has in the past tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease prices at the pump.The White House released 180 million barrels from the SPR in 2022 as oil and gas prices surged in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The reserve currently stands at about 365 million barrels, the lowest level in decades, a point of contention with Republicans in Congress.Russia’s decision to deepen its cuts by 470,000 barrels per day to meet its pledges to OPEC+ could prove particularly problematic, according to a March research note from JPMorgan. The price of global benchmark Brent crude oil could approach $100 by September — just two months before the November presidential election — without countermeasure, according to the firm.The chances of another release from the SPR will rise if gasoline prices move closer to $4 per gallon, which could happen as soon as May, according to JPMorgan. Despite the SPR’s low levels, the Biden administration has space to release another 60 million barrels of crude oil, according to the bank.Oil prices have pulled back more than 3% this week as war fears eased along with Israel’s decision not to strike back immediately against Iran, but the situation remains highly uncertain. Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said oil prices above $90 a barrel presents a problem for the broader market.“It’s also a problem for inflation in general, and it’s a real problem if you’re an incumbent running for reelection,” Yergin told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” earlier this month.

Comer threatens to subpoena Granholm for testimony on SPR withdrawals, LNG export pause House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) threatened to subpoena Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm Friday to ensure her appearance at a May 15 hearing.“Secretary Granholm must avoid further delay & appear for a scheduled hearing on May 15. I’m prepared to issue a subpoena,” Comer posted on social platform X, linking to a letter firstshared with The Daily Caller.In the letter, Comer called on Granholm to testify on matters including the Biden administration’s pause on new liquefied natural gas export approvals and withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)The Biden administration withdrew 50 million barrels of oil from the SPR in November 2021 as part of efforts to stabilize gas prices. The administration would go on to withdraw 1 million barrels a day for 180 days, the largest-ever withdrawal from the reserve, in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.The Energy Department has vowed to fully replenish the SPR, so far buying back about 32 million barrels. The reserve was just over half full as of April, containing about 363 million barrels, compared to 600 million before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.Most recently, the department canceled a planned purchase of about 3 million barrels, set to be delivered to a Louisiana facility, earlier this month.Comer also sought information about a road trip Granholm made to promote electric vehicles in 2023. The trip itself is the subject of a separate probe by the Kentucky Republican, who wrote to the department last September with Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Energy Policy, and Regulatory Affairs Chairman Pat Fallon (R-Texas) for further information on the trip and its costs.

Border Outranks Ukraine As Moderate Voter Priority In Swing States: Poll - An April survey of swing, or moderate, voters in six battleground states suggests the impacts of an open southern border is concerning them more than events in Ukraine. Commissioned by the conservative Heritage Foundation and executed by the non-partisan RMG Research, Inc., the poll revealed that 56 percent of those voters felt the $113 billion price tag for Ukraine support thus far was either too much or far too much. Just 14 percent thought the United States had not spent enough on military aid for Ukraine, while 16 percent rated the spending about right. When asked to compare the importance of border security with that of Ukraine funding, 50 percent chose the border, while only 11 percent chose Ukraine; 29 percent said both were equally important. “Heritage’s latest polling reveals that not only are moderate voters in battleground states more interested in securing our own borders, they believe we have already spent enough helping Ukraine—and rightfully so,” Kevin Roberts, the president of the Heritage Foundation, said in a statement accompanying the survey. RMG interviewed 1,000 swing voters in Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan between April 2 and April 4. Out of the voters surveyed, the majority—54 percent—were independent. 25 percent were Republicans and 20 percent Democrats. “Swing voters were defined as likely voters who are either undecided on the presidential election, undecided on the generic congressional ballot, or expressed a different partisan preference on the presidential and congressional races,” a statement accompanying the survey read. The voters RMG surveyed were tracking the border situation more closely than the conflict that heated up more than two years ago with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Also, 22 percent reported following news from America’s southern border “very closely,” while just 10 percent described a similar level of attention to news from the Ukraine-Russia war.

Red Colorado Counties Sue To Help ICE Arrest, Deport Illegal Immigrants -- Two conservative Colorado counties—Douglas and El Paso—have sued the state of Colorado and its Democrat governor over laws that prevent local law enforcement from working with federal agents to arrest and deport illegal immigrants.“The nation is facing an immigration crisis,” commissioners and sheriffs from Douglas and El Paso wrote in their complaint, which was filed on April 15 at the Denver County District Court.The lawsuit targets two sanctuary state laws—House Bills 19-1124 and 23-1100—which prohibit local governments from joining with the federal government on immigration matters.Specifically, the bills prohibit local law enforcement from arresting and detaining illegal immigrants. They also bar state judicial officials from sharing information with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and prohibit local governments from entering into agreements with the federal government on matters of immigration enforcement.“It is our intent to bring suit specifically to address the illegal immigration crisis now present in this country,” George Teal, chair of the Douglas County Board of Commissioners, said during a press conference announcing the lawsuit.“Federal policies along the southern border ... [have] resulted in an unlimited string of illegal immigrants into our communities,” Mr. Teal continued. “And we see it as the duty of the county to push back against the state laws that prohibit us from working with federal authorities to keep Douglas County and our communities safe.”The conservative counties allege in their complaint that the two laws that they’re challenging, which were signed into law by Colorado Gov. Jared Polis over the past several years, are illegal and unconstitutional. They allege that the laws violate various provisions of the Colorado State Constitution, including on intergovernmental relationships and distribution of powers.

Mayorkas impeachment sparks partisan Senate battle - The House impeachment managers on Tuesday formally delivered two articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, setting up a battle on the Senate floor over whether to hold a full trial in the upper chamber. It marks the first time since 1876 that the House has sent impeachment charges against a Cabinet official to the Senate, according to the Senate historical office. Senators received the House managers shortly after 2 p.m. EDT Tuesday while seated at their desks, a rare formality adopted in the upper chamber only for the most serious occasions. Nearly every seat in the Senate chamber was filled when the 11 House managers walked down the center aisle to read the charges from the well. Adding to the gravity of the moment, the Senate sergeant at arms commanded “all persons” to “keep silent, on pain of imprisonment” while the House prosecutors read the charges and exhibited the impeachment articles. Senators will be sworn in as jurors at 1 p.m. Wednesday to decide whether to hold a full trial on the Senate floor, something Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) has signaled he has no intention of doing. Schumer warned that holding a trial would set an “awful precedent.” “We want to address this issue as expeditiously as possible. Impeachment should never be used to settle a policy disagreement,” he said on the floor. “This would set an awful precedent for Congress. Every time there’s a policy [disagreement] in the House, they send it over here and tie the Senate in knots to do an impeachment trial? That’s absurd. That’s an abuse of the process. That is more chaos,” he said.

Murphy fires back at Trump Jr. on Mayorkas vote: ‘Republicans are full of s‑‑‑’ | -- Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) fired back at Donald Trump Jr. on Friday for calling out three Senate Democrats who voted to end the impeachment case against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.“Your Friday morning reminder that Republicans are full of shit when they complain about the border,” Murphy wrote Friday morning. “They killed the tough, bipartisan border security bill because Trump told them to keep the border a mess because it would help him politically.” Murphy was responding to Trump Jr. criticizing Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) — who all face tough reelection battles this year — for “doing [President] Biden’s bidding” by voting to kill this week’s Senate trial of Mayorkas.“Next time Dems like Bob Casey, Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown try to portray themselves as tough on the border, remember that they just did Biden’s bidding by voting to acquit Mayorkas without a trial,” Trump Jr. wrote in a Thursday post on social media platform X. “By taking that vote, they all just endorsed the invasion at our southern border!”All three lawmakers voted with their party to dismiss two articles of impeachment, avoiding the possibility of having a lengthy trial. Murphy was part of a bipartisan group of senators — along with Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) — who negotiated a border security bill that passed the Senate, but was effectively killed by former President Trump when it reached the House.Senate Republicans issued multiple motions to delay Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s(D-N.Y.) move to avoid an impeachment trial. All attempts failed on party-line votes.

House’s ‘Three Amigos’ urge Biden, Mayorkas to move on work permits The Democratic House trio who became known as the “Three Amigos” for their defiant efforts to protect undocumented immigrants are now urging the Biden administration to use its executive powers to grant legal work permits for that group. Reps. Jesús “Chuy” García (Ill.), Adriano Espaillat (N.Y.) and Lou Correa (Calif.) will deliver a letter Wednesday to President Biden, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and United States Citizenship and Immigration Services Director Ur Jaddou, outlining what they believe the administration can do on work permits and why it’s in their best interest. “Implementing such a policy would benefit workers nationwide. Legal work permits would further shield immigrants from exploitation and enable them to seek jobs that match their skills, thereby fostering better working conditions,” wrote the lawmakers. “Additionally, granting work permits to long-term immigrant workers could increase annual tax revenue by an estimated $13.8 billion, according to the American Immigration Council.” The Three Amigos and many immigrant advocacy organizations are concerned about the growing disparity between newly arrived migrants who are eligible for work permits in the short or medium term under parole programs or as part of an asylum application, and long-term undocumented immigrants who have lived and worked in the United States for years or decades without the possibility of applying for work papers. Migration patterns in the Western Hemisphere shift continuously, but since 2019 the volume of migration, the origin countries of migrants and their mode of entry into the United States have changed radically. The 10 million to 11 million people who make up the bulk of the undocumented population were in the United States before that change, most arrived either crossing the border undetected or overstaying visas, and they are not legally able to apply for work permits.

Impatience over stalled tax deal grows in Senate - Supporters of a bipartisan tax deal that sailed through the House in January are growing impatient as the measure stalls in the Senate amid Republican opposition to the bill’s expansion of a credit for working families. The deal, known as the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act, pairs an expansion of the child tax credit (CTC), which raised millions of children out of poverty during the pandemic, with established business tax breaks that were canceled to help pay for the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Those breaks are a credit for research and development costs, an accelerated schedule for writing off depreciation costs for things like plants and equipment, and making interest payments tax deductible, which is valuable for companies that purchase assets with debt. A cancellation of employee retention credit, which lawmakers have said is rife with fraudulent claims, would pay for nearly all of the $78 billion in tax credits included in the bill. The deal’s business credits enjoy bipartisan support, but Republicans are sounding cagey about moving ahead on a bipartisan deal ahead of the November elections. A GOP sweep could give Republicans the power to enact another major tax bill and firm up Trump-era tax cuts set to expire in 2025. Sen. Mike Crapo (Idaho), top Republican on the Senate Finance Committee and a key negotiator in talks, told The Hill on Tuesday that negotiations remain “at a standstill,” while accusing Democrats of “trying to just cram the bill down on the floor.” “Look, if they succeed in cramming the bill through on the floor, then of course there’s no point to discuss negotiations,” Crapo said. “If they don’t succeed in that, then I hope negotiations will reopen.” While a significant piece of tax legislation in its scope and design, the proposal is almost certainly more modest in scale than tax legislation that is expected out of Congress next year, when the individual provisions of the Trump tax cuts are set to expire. Republicans largely want a blanket extension of the cuts, while Democrats likely want to amend certain provisions and do away with others. Whatever comes out of negotiations following the 2024 election, the proposals could easily subsume the current tax deal, as the Trump tax cuts added about $1.5 trillion to the federal deficit through 2027, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation. Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), one of the bill’s main architects, appealed to Republican senators on the fence in a Monday statement, arguing he amended the bill in line with GOP demands on how far back the family credit should apply. “Senator Crapo did not accept that offer,” Wyden said Monday. “The changes he asked for instead would have destroyed any chance of passing the bill and left way too many kids living in poverty. But I want the rest of the Senate to know, my offer still stands.” “I’m here to say, this cannot wait,” he added.

Warren slams TurboTax for upselling taxpayers during filing process --Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) criticized TurboTax on Monday for charging taxpayers for relatively simple tax returns and repeatedly upselling them during the filing process.Ahead of Monday night’s tax deadline, Warren pointed to an example of a sample taxpayer with a “simple filing situation” who would qualify for the IRS’s new Direct File tool, which is a free pilot program available in 12 states.However, using TurboTax, the sample taxpayer would pay $133 for filing federal and state taxes and “get upsold or solicited for additional costly services eight more times in the process,” Warren said.“The TurboTax website attempts to divert taxpayers away from free filing options early in the process – and continues to do so throughout their federal and state tax filings,” the Massachusetts Democrat wrote in a letter to Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Chair Lina Khan.“Given these ongoing concerns, I support the FTC’s work and urge you to continue to take action to protect taxpayers from tax preparation companies that pile junk fees onto taxpayers,” Warren added.The FTC ruled in January that Intuit deceived customers by claiming a version of its online tax filing software is free, when roughly two-thirds of American taxpayers would not qualify for free services through TurboTax.The agency prohibited Intuit from advertising its services as “free” unless they are free for all consumers or “clearly and conspicuously” disclose the percentage of consumers that qualify for the services.In 2022, Intuit also agreed to pay $141 million to low-income filers who paid for TurboTax services when they should have been free as part of a multi-state settlement.

Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib criticize ‘appalling’ suspension of Omar’s daughter at Columbia | The Hill Democratic Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) and Rashida Tlaib (Mich.) slammed the suspension of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) daughter from college after she participated in a pro-Palestinian protest on campus.“From UM to Vanderbilt to USC to Columbia, students across our country are being retaliated against for using their constitutional rights to protest genocide. It’s appalling,” Tlaib added while sharing Isra Hirsi’s post to social platform X.Hirsi, Omar’s daughter, announced earlier that day in her post that she had been suspended from the university for “standing in solidarity with Palestinians facing a genocide.” “How does a student with no disciplinary record suddenly get to a suspension less than 24 hours after a nonviolent protest? What merits asymmetric crackdowns on Palestinian human rights protests,” Ocasio-Cortez said, also sharing Hirsi’s post. “i’m an organizer with CU Apartheid Divest @ColumbiaSJP, in my 3 years at @BarnardCollege i have never been reprimanded or received any disciplinary warnings,” Hirsi said in her post. “i just received notice that i am 1 of 3 students suspended for standing in solidarity with Palestinians facing a genocide,” Hirsi added.Columbia University noted Hirsi is a student at Barnard College, which is connected to Columbia but has some independence.Barnard did not comment on specifics Thursday, but pointed to an announcement from its senior staff saying Columbia and Barnard students “set up an unauthorized encampment” on Columbia’s South Lawn.Columbia made multiple requests that students participating in the protest leave the lawn before “a number of Barnard Senior Staff also went to the lawn to ask students participating in the encampment to leave,” according to the statement.Senior staff members also advised students they would face sanctions if they did not leave, in addition to written warnings they would receive interim suspension if they did not leave by Wednesday night, according to the school.

Missouri Files Injunction To Block Biden's 'Illegal Student Loan Plan' While Lawsuit Plays Out --Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey announced on Wednesday that the state has filed for a temporary restraining order (TRO) to block the Biden administration's "illegal student loan plan," referred to by a coalition of states as "Plan B," which was implemented shortly after a previous attempt ("Plan A") was deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. "Plan B" aims to forgive student loans under different statutory provisions, but faces similar legal challenges as plan A - primarily surrounding the authority to enact such broad debt cancellation without clear congressional authorization. "From the moment the Supreme Court ruled in Biden v. Nebraska, President Biden made clear he would ‘stop at nothing’ to evade the decision," reads the TRO request. "Although the challenged rule, by its own text, was not supposed to take effect until this July, Defendants decided to start implementing it early and have already illegally cancelled billions of dollars in loans.""Defendants make almost no attempt to meaningfully distinguish their Plan B from their patently unlawful Plan A," the filing continues. Shortly after Biden announced the SAVE plan earlier this month, 11 states sued, arguing that it's yet another unlawful attempt to force Americans who incurred no college debt to shoulder the bill for those who did. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Plan B would add up to $750 billion to the US budget deficit. The plan itself has five major components. It would:

• Cancel accumulated interest for borrowers with balances higher than what they initially borrowed, capped at $20,000 for those in standard repayment and uncapped but restricted to individuals making less than $120,000 annually or couples making under $240,000 enrolled in an income-driven repayment (IDR) plan.
• Automatically cancel loans for borrowers in standard repayment who would be eligible for cancellation had they applied for programs such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) or the new IDR program, Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE).
• Automatically cancel loans for borrowers who have been repaying undergraduate loans for over 20 years or graduate loans for over 25 years.
• Cancel debt of those who attended low-financial-value programs, including those that failed accountability measures or were deemed ineligible for federal student aid programs.
• Forgive debt of borrowers who are “facing hardships” or are likely to default on their loan payments.

According to AG Bailey, the plan is a "brazen attempt to curry favor with some citizens by forcing others to shoulder their debts." Now, Missouri wants a judge to block Plan B until the lawsuit plays out.

House panel to debate privacy, kids’ safety bills - The House Energy and Commerce Committee is holding a hearing Wednesday on a series of tech safety bills aimed at boosting data privacy standards and child online safety. Two of the long-awaited bills for discussion, a newly unveiled comprehensive data privacy bill and the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA), will be in the spotlight and are likely to instigate debate around lingering concerns despite bipartisan support for the bills. The hearing will be the first time lawmakers discuss the American Privacy Rights Act (APRA), a data privacy bill unveiled by Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and Senate Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) last week. The bill’s preemption of state laws could emerge as a sticking point, especially among California Democrats, who have previously raised concerns about data privacy proposals that attempt to preempt privacy laws like one passed in their home state. But supporters of comprehensive data privacy legislation will underscore the urgent need for new rules as lawmakers race to regulate the rapidly expanding artificial intelligence (AI) field, according to copies of witnesses written testimony. “The APRA would prevent the ‘race to the bottom’ scenario by setting a baseline level of protection that states cannot undercut. This is critical as we face a future with even more reliance on data we create and leverage in new ways with the introduction of Generative AI,” said Katherine Kuehn, a director and CISO-in-Residence at the National Technology Security Coalition, in written testimony ahead of the hearing. The hearing will also feature a discussion over a House version of the Kids Online Safety Act. Children’s online safety advocates have been pushing for a vote on the bill in the Senate after it advanced with bipartisan support in July, but some groups have continued to raise about the potential impact it will have on limiting teens in marginalized communities from online information. The hearing agenda includes eight other legislative proposals to be discussed, offering a range of regulations around kids’ safety and overall data privacy updates. But based on the written testimony from witnesses, APRA and KOSA are poised to be in the spotlight

Democrat touts social media age-verification measure ahead of key hearing --Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) urged the House Energy and Commerce Committee on Tuesday to consider age-verification requirements for social media ahead of the panel’s hearing on data privacy and kids’ online safety legislation. The Democratic lawmaker pointed to his legislation, the Verifying Kids’ Online Privacy Act, which would require social media to develop methods of verifying users’ ages to ensure compliance with the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA). “Requiring age verification would constitute a critical step in ensuring that companies uphold the protections included in COPPA, as well as any future data privacy and child safety legislation the Committee may consider,” Auchincloss wrote in a letter to Committee Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-Wash.) and ranking member Frank Pallone (D-N.J.). COPPA currently requires certain protections for children younger than 13, which has prompted many social media companies to bar children younger than 13 from using their services. However, Auchincloss noted that these companies “often simply ask users to input their birthday when creating an account, which is easy for underage users to work around.” His legislation would raise COPPA’s protections from 13 to 16 years old and require some form of age verification. “Importantly, this legislation would not require a specific age verification method, but would allow for companies to design a privacy-protective method that fits their platform, while still requiring those companies to submit these processes to the Federal Trade Commission to be considered for COPPA’s existing safe harbor provisions,” Auchincloss wrote. However, age verification laws, which have been passed in several states, have faced legal challenges from groups, like the American Civil Liberties Union, which argues the requirements could chill the speech of adults.

Federal authorities launching child sex exploitation awareness campaign - The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is launching a national awareness campaign aimed at educating the public about the threat of child sex exploitation and preventing crimes from occurring, the Biden administration announced Wednesday. The initiative, called Know2Protect, is what DHS described as a “first-of-its-kind” campaign that brings together public and private sector companies to deliver resources to young people, parents, community leaders and educators where they spend the most time. DHS has included several high-profile partners in the effort, including tech companies like Google, Meta, Snap, Intel and Roblox; sports league partners like Major League Baseball, Major League Soccer, NASCAR, the National Football League, the National Hockey League, and the United States Olympic & Paralympic Committee; youth-serving organizations like Boy Scouts of America and the National Police Athletic League and various law enforcement associations. “All of us, working together, must protect our children from the heinous and growing crime of online child sexual exploitation and abuse,” Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said in a statement. “The tragic reality is that, as young people spend more time online, predators around the world increasingly target them through manipulation and deceit.” The campaign’s website launched Wednesday and is being advertised in 25 media markets and online through digital and physical billboards throughout the country. DHS said in its release that the campaign will reach millions of Americans and disseminate resources to educate the public about sex exploitation and provide resources to report potential abuse. “The best way to keep kids safe online is to provide helpful information where they are: on social media and online gaming platforms, and through clubs, sporting events, and organizations,” Know2Protect Campaign Director Kate Kennedy said in the press release. “By partnering with a range of companies to raise awareness and disseminate educational messaging, we are keeping kids safe from online predators.” Google will donate ad credits for Google display, YouTube, and Google Search, which DHS said will “bolster the reach of the campaign.” Meta will also promote the campaign on Facebook and Instagram.

White House releases new global health security strategy The Biden administration yesterday unveiled a new Global Health Security Strategy, which spells out the steps the United States will take over the next 5 years to prevent, detect, and effectively respond to biological threats. In a statement, President Joe Biden said Americans have witnessed the profound impact of the COVID pandemic and how the global challenge had local consequences. "No sector of society was immune. That's why—as my Administration worked to end the COVID-19 pandemic—we've also focused on ensuring our nation is prepared for any future pandemic, outbreak, or biological threat."In a fact sheet, the White House said the strategy builds on lessons learned during the pandemic and describes steps to meet goals outlined in the 2022 national biodefense strategy and 2022 pandemic prevention legislation that was passed as part of the James M. Inhofe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023.Three overarching goals include strengthening global health security capacities through bilateral partnerships, mobilizing political commitment, financing and leadership to achieve health security, and leveraging health security linkages between health security and complementary programs. Details of the strategy are covered in a 64-page document. The White House notes targets for 2024, which include achieving and sustaining health capacity goals in 50 more countries and strengthening country ownership and resource mobilization. The White House also signaled that it would incorporate equity and social inclusion factors to protect all people from infectious disease threats..

Becerra says rural health would improve if states expand Medicaid - Rural health outcomes would improve if more states expanded Medicaid, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Xavier Becerra told a Senate panel Tuesday. During a hearing on the administration’s budget request, Sen. Cindy-Hyde Smith (R-Miss.) said she is particularly worried about maternal care deserts caused by hospital closures. Mississippi sees some of the worst maternal health outcomes in the country, she said, and often leads the country in infant mortality. Becerra said telehealth access is crucial, and Congress should ensure the agency’s pandemic-era telehealth flexibilities can continue. Many temporary waivers expire at the end of the year. But more than anything, Becerra said, women in Mississippi would be better served if the state expanded Medicaid. “Many of the women who are having bad outcomes could have qualified for earlier care had they been eligible for Medicaid,” he said. “I think if we expand Medicaid in some of the states that haven’t yet done it, about a million and a half more Americans, many of them women who want to deliver a baby, would have access to earlier care and not wait until it’s a difficult circumstance in the delivery.” Mississippi is one of 10 states that have declined to accept federal money to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. State lawmakers appear closer than ever to adopting expansion. But the legislature passed dueling proposals, and a controversial work requirement is a significant barrier, as is the opposition of Gov. Tate Reeves (R). Becerra was also pressed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) about why HHS hasn’t yet implemented an anti-addiction law that aims to allow better data sharing, so health providers have all the information necessary to provide medically appropriate care. “We are trying to tackle that HIPAA privacy hurdle,” Becerra said, because providers need to understand the new rules. But Manchin expressed frustration that the agency hasn’t been moving faster. “We thought we crossed every hurdle … it’s just time to implement it. I would implore you, get your staff moving on this one here. We’ve waited a long time for it,” he said. Jessie’s Law, passed by Congress in 2018, was named for a recovering addict who died of an opioid overdose when her discharging physician, unaware of her medical history, prescribed oxycodone. The law lets doctors access a consenting patient’s prior history of addiction to make fully informed care and treatment decisions. It requires HHS to develop best practices for hospitals and doctors to display a patient’s history of substance use disorder when the patient provides that information.

Medicare’s Push To Improve Chronic Care Attracts Businesses, but Not Many Doctors - At least two-thirds of Medicare enrollees have two or more chronic health conditions, federal data shows. That makes them eligible for a federal program that, since 2015, has rewarded doctors for doing more to manage their health outside office visits. But while early research found the service, called Chronic Care Management, reduced emergency room and in-patient hospital visits and lowered total health spending, uptake has been sluggish.Federal data from 2019 shows just 4% of potentially eligible enrollees participated in the program, a figure that appears to have held steady through 2023, according to a Mathematica analysis. About 12,000 physicians billed Medicare under the CCM mantle in 2021, according to the latest Medicare data analyzed by KFF Health News. (The Medicare data includes doctors who have annually billed CCM at least a dozen times.)By comparison, federal data shows about 1 million providers participate in Medicare.Even as the strategy has largely failed to live up to its potential, thousands of physicians have boosted their annual pay by participating, and auxiliary for-profit businesses have sprung up to help doctors take advantage of the program. The federal data showed about 4,500 physicians received at least $100,000 each in CCM pay in 2021. Through the CCM program, Medicare pays to develop a patient care plan, coordinate treatment with specialists, and regularly check in with beneficiaries. Medicare pays doctors a monthly average of $62 per patient, for 20 minutes of work with each, according to companies in the business.Without the program, providers often have little incentive to spend time coordinating care because they can’t bill Medicare for such services. Health policy experts say a host of factors limit participation in the program. Chief among them is that it requires both doctors and patients to opt in. Doctors may not have the capacity to regularly monitor patients outside office visits. Some also worry about meeting the strict Medicare documentation requirements for reimbursement and are reluctant to ask patients to join a program that may require a monthly copayment if they don’t have a supplemental policy.“This program had potential to have a big impact,” said Kenneth Thorpe, an Emory University health policy expert on chronic diseases. “But I knew it was never going to work from the start because it was put together wrong.”He said most doctors’ offices are not set up for monitoring patients at home. “This is very time-intensive and not something physicians are used to doing or have time to do,” Thorpe said.For patients, the CCM program is intended to expand the type of care offered in traditional, fee-for-service Medicare to match benefits that — at least in theory — they may get through Medicare Advantage, which is administered by private insurers.But the CCM program is open to both Medicare and Medicare Advantage beneficiaries.The program was also intended to boost pay to primary care doctors and other physicians who are paid significantly less by Medicare than specialists, said Mark Miller, a former executive director of the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission, which advises Congress. He’s currently an executive vice president of Arnold Ventures, a philanthropic organization focused on health policy.Despite the allure of extra money, some physicians have been put off by the program’s upfront costs.

When Is The Social Security Trust Fund Running Out? --A social safety net is synonymous with a failsafe for many, but in the case of the U.S. Social Security system, additional action is needed to ensure it stays that way.The annual OASDI trustees report by the Social Security Administration, covering old-age, survivors and disability insurance, shows that under the present circumstances, the asset reserve dedicated to the benefit program could be depleted sooner rather than later.As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, under the report’s intermediate scenario, asset funds would run out sometime in 2034, while this could happen as soon as 2031 if the administration was to shoulder a high volume of costs in the upcoming years.Under the low-cost scenario, the fund could remain solvent until 2066. The intermediate date was moved forward in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, which seriously diminished Social Security’s income in payroll taxes.The system’s expenditures have been above its income for some time – with the difference being taken out of the asset fund and the interest it creates - but the gap has been widening over the years. As Baby Boomers retire and Americans are having fewer children, the balance between those who are working and funding social security and those who are receiving old age, survivor or disability benefits continues to tip.2021 marked the first year when interest earned on the fund could no longer bridge social security’s spending gap, sending the asset reserve into a downward spiral. Because Social Security services are funded by the payroll tax on a pay-as-you-go basis, the income-cost gap equals the amount the administration would no longer be able to pay out if the fund would in fact be depleted. In order to stop funds from running low, Congress would have to act to provide additional revenue to Social Security, for example by raising the dedicated payroll tax, to lower its cost by cutting benefits or attempt a combination of both.

Supreme Court lifts broad injunction against Idaho ban on gender-affirming care for minors - -- The Supreme Court on Monday allowed Idaho to begin broadly enforcing a new state law barring many forms of gender-affirming care for minors, at least for now. The high court, which sharply reined in a lower court decision that had blocked Idaho from enforcing the law, left in place protections for such treatments for two anonymous teenagers whose families filed suit to block it. The impact of the ruling for other transgender minors seeking treatment but who aren’t plaintiffs in the challenge is murky, because they could potentially try to join the pending lawsuit or file suits of their own. The court’s three liberal justices dissented from the high court’s ruling, while all the court’s conservatives except Chief Justice John Roberts wrote or joined opinions explaining their views. The law, which Republican Gov. Brad Little signed in April 2023, sought to ban medical professionals from providing gender affirming care, including transition surgeries, puberty blockers or hormone therapy for those under 18. Doctors could face up to 10 years in prison for providing such services under the law. The high court’s ruling, while not a final one on the legality of bans on gender-affirming treatment, could reverberate among the legal challenges in other states that have passed similar bans. The opinions the justices issued Monday explaining the court’s decision in the case, however, made little reference to the issue of whether such laws aimed at transgender people are or are not constitutional. Instead, the Supreme Court’s members duked it out over a long-simmering question of whether and when individual judges have the power to block enforcement of a law broadly even though only one or a small number of plaintiffs have stepped forward to challenge it.

Supreme Court justices signal wariness of law used for Jan. 6 prosecutions -The scope of a federal obstruction law used against scores of Jan. 6 rioters — and former President Trump — drew scrutiny from the Supreme Court on Tuesday, a signal that the justices may be wary of the Justice Department’s far-reaching prosecution of the Capitol attack. Joseph Fischer, a former police officer accused of storming the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, challenged the law in an effort to eliminate one of several counts he faces: obstruction of an official proceeding. The law, Section 1512(c)(2), makes it a crime to “corruptly” obstruct, impede or interfere with official inquiries and investigations by Congress and carries a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison. Jeffrey Green, who represented Fischer, argued Tuesday that law was created to more narrowly address acts that affect the “integrity or availability of evidence” — not acts that get in the way of an official proceeding without affecting any evidence. However, the Department of Justice (DOJ) contended that Fischer’s reading imposed an “atextual limit” on the type of conduct that can be prosecuted under the charge, suggesting that Congress meant for the statute to serve as a “classic catchall” for acts not including the destruction of records, documents or other objects. The charge itself is more than two decades old, enacted in 2002 after the Enron scandal, where top executives at the energy company were imprisoned for fraud and other offenses after the company went bankrupt. Since the Capitol riot, more than 1,300 people have faced charges for their role in the attack — some 353 of whom were accused of obstructing Congress’s official count of Electoral College votes that day. The vote certification is the final step of the presidential election process, where in 2020, President Biden’s win over Trump was formalized. But Fischer and a slew of other Jan. 6 defendants say the charge has been improperly applied to rioters who descended on the Capitol that day. The high court’s conservative justices pressed the Justice Department on whether the charge has ever been used to prosecute actions aside from the Capitol attack. U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar said the DOJ has used the statute in prosecutions involving actions that exposed the existence of a grand jury or an undercover law enforcement officer.

Right-wing Supreme Court majority signals it may dismiss obstruction charges against January 6 insurrectionists -- Based on their questioning and comments during oral arguments Tuesday, five of the most right-wing Supreme Court justices signaled their intention to rule that the participants in the storming of the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 cannot be charged with obstructing an official proceeding, a serious felony that carries a penalty up to 20 years in prison. The January 6 assault, carried out by a mob of far-right thugs and fascistic groups gathered around Donald Trump, was aimed at preventing the joint session of Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s electoral victory, as part of Trump’s attempted coup in defiance of the outcome of the election. The far-right justices, who themselves sympathize with the January 6 coup attempt, engaged in tortured verbal gymnastics on Tuesday in an effort to shield insurrectionists from the plain meaning of the federal statute that criminalizes the unlawful obstruction of “official proceedings,” including the counting of votes by Congress. These same justices, when it suits their right-wing agenda, present themselves as “strict constructionists” who strenuously adhere to the plain text and meaning of laws. The most striking moment during the proceedings came when far-right Justice Samuel Alito demanded to know whether the same law being invoked against the January 6 insurrectionists could be used to prosecute pro-Palestinian protestors who “blocked the Golden Gate Bridge in San Francisco and disrupted traffic.” He asked, “Would that be a violation of this provision” if it delayed an official proceeding? On its face, Alito’s question, echoing far-right talking points from the Trump milieu, is absurd and provocative. There is no equivalence between a non-violent anti-genocide demonstration disrupting vehicle traffic—as protests have commonly done going back to the Civil Rights struggles and earlier—and a far-right violent coup attempt aimed at overthrowing the election and establishing a presidential dictatorship. But this quip from Alito was pitched not to the lawyers in the courtroom, but to the leftward-moving population, against whom it was an implicit threat, and simultaneously to a far-right audience within the state and the financial elite, to whom it was a pledge. Aside from participants in the fascist mob, the conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election, which Biden won by seven million votes and a substantial margin in the Electoral College, involved dozens of Trump administration officials and Republican members of Congress, high-level members of the military and police apparatus, and dozens of others outside government, most of whom have not been arrested or charged. There is a farcical and illegitimate character to the very notion of the Supreme Court presiding over the case of a January 6 insurrection, given that the Supreme Court is itself implicated in the coup attempt. Emails demonstrate that for weeks following the 2020 election, Virginia “Ginni” Thomas, the wife of the arch-reactionary Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas—who has himself accepted hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of vacations and other bribes from far-right Republican billionaires—coordinated with Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, to secure judicial ratification of Trump’s coup d’etat in the event that the January 6, 2021 electoral vote count was derailed by the fascist mob. In this manner, Thomas was to reprise his role in the Supreme Court’s ruling to halt the counting of votes in Florida in 2000 and thereby steal the presidential election for George W. Bush. The conspiracy to install Trump as dictator on January 6 nearly succeeded. But the response of the Democrats and the Biden administration has been to rehabilitate the Republican Party and the far right as part of their efforts to achieve “bipartisan unity,” particularly in support of imperialist war plans in Ukraine and the Middle East, and against China. To date, only some 1,250 insurrectionists have been arrested and charged. Roughly 10 percent are alleged to have used weapons or caused serious injuries to police at the US Capitol.

Biden Refuses To Testify In GOP Impeachment Inquiry --President Joe Biden will not be testifying to U.S. House of Representatives members who are engaged in an impeachment inquiry against him, the White House said on April 15.Richard Sauber, special counsel to the president, told House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) that the president would not testify in the “partisan charade.”“Your committee’s purported ‘impeachment inquiry’ has succeeded only in turning up abundant evidence that, in fact, the president has done nothing wrong,” Mr. Sauber said in a letter to Mr. Comer.“Your insistence on peddling these false and unsupported allegations despite ample evidence to the contrary makes one thing about your investigation abundantly clear: The facts do not matter to you,” he added.Republicans in their investigation have found that millions of dollars flowed from businesses and individuals, including foreigners, to members of the Biden family while President Biden was vice president.They’ve also identified payments from Hunter Biden’s business to the president, and from the president’s brother to him, as well as emails between President Biden and an associate of Hunter Biden. Several witnesses, meanwhile, testified that President Biden would get on the phone with Hunter Biden’s associates and that he attended multiple meals with them.President Biden and the White House have maintained that he was not involved with the business undertaken by his son and brother.Mr. Comer wrote to the president in March, saying the evidence “wholly contradicts your position.”

RJK Jr. claims Trump ‘emissaries’ asked him to be his running mate - Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. claimed again on Monday that Donald Trump’s team asked him to consider being the former president’s running mate, which a Trump adviser denied. Kennedy’s claim, which he posted to followers on X, previously Twitter, comes after several attacks by Trump on Truth Social calling Kennedy “the most radical liberal” candidate in the presidential race. Both Republicans and Democrats are racing to define Kennedy in the general election race before his campaign can define itself, with Trump’s side calling him too liberal and President Joe Biden’s team connecting him with Trump and the MAGA movement. “President Trump calls me an ultra-left radical. I’m soooo liberal that his emissaries asked me to be his VP. I respectfully declined the offer,” Kennedy wrote on X. Kennedy first said that Trump’s team had approached him about joining his ticket as vice president in January. “People from the team have reached out to me,” Kennedy said in an interview with News Nation. Trump has privately floated the idea of picking Kennedy as vice president in recent months, though advisers dismiss the idea he would ever be picked. Trump is known to workshop ideas to a variety of aides and allies, even if they never come to fruition.

RFK Jr. anxiety rises among Senate Democrats - Senators in both parties are warning that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may end up tipping the presidential election to either former President Trump or President Biden, but Democrats are expressing more worries he could be a spoiler candidate than Republicans. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), one of President Biden’s most outspoken defenders on Capitol Hill, said it’s hard to predict how exactly Kennedy will impact the race for the White House. But she expressed concern that he will hurt Biden more because of his relationship to former President Kennedy, his uncle, and former attorney general and presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy — two legendary figures in the Democratic Party. “I think he’s basically helping Trump,” she said. “I think he’s being used.” Democrats were shocked when Kennedy recently declared Biden is a “much worse threat to democracy” than Trump because he is the “first candidate in history, the first president in history, that has used federal agencies to censor political speech” and to “censor his opponent.” The claim sounded like an argument Trump would make at a political rally, Democrats said. In announcing his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, a wealthy Democratic donor, Kennedy declared the values of the Democratic Party have changed since the days of Camelot. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who represents a key presidential battleground state, conceded Kennedy’s “last name would have the potential of hurting Biden.” At the organization level, Democrats are also signaling their concerns. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has set up a team led by former White House counsel Dana Remus to track Kennedy’s efforts to get on the ballot in swing states. Biden’s allies at the DNC are also stepping up efforts to define Kennedy as a radical who shares Trump’s embrace of the anti-vaccine movement.

In surprise, Biden faces real threat from Trump with Hispanic voters - Biden’s support among Hispanics — particularly young Latino men — is lukewarm. And in some cases, polls show he is losing support among the key Democratic voting bloc. At the same time, Trump appears to be gaining support from Hispanics. A New York Times/Siena College survey out this week showed Biden with 50 percent support among Hispanics — which is historically low for a Democrat. Meanwhile, Trump’s support among Hispanics has grown to 41 percent, which is on the higher end for a Republican. Last week, an Axios/Ipsos survey showed Biden’s support among Hispanics dropping by 12 points from 53 percent to 41 percent over the last three years. And while support for Trump is still low at 32 percent, the former president has gained about 8 points with Hispanic voters since the 2021 poll. “Most noteworthy is that Biden has fallen,” said Chris Jackson, a senior vice president of public affairs at Ipsos. “And that’s the real story.” Jackson explained that the biggest worries among Hispanics surveyed are inflation and a significant rise in cost of living since Biden took office, issues that have also hurt Biden with other parts of the electorate. “Trump is getting a lot of credit for the prepandemic economy,” Jackson said. While a large part of Biden’s campaign messaging has focused on “saving democracy” — with a chorus centered on social issues including abortion — Jackson and other political observers say, for Hispanics, such concerns pale in comparison to day-to-day economic issues.

‘SNL Weekend Update’ roasts Trump abortion stance - This weekend’s segment of “Saturday Night Live,” mocked former President Trump for his position on abortion, in which he asserted laws on the procedure should be left to the states. “This week, Donald Trump said that he supports abortion laws being decided by the states instead of the federal government,” SNL “Weekend Update,” co-host Michael Che said. “But why stop there? Why not go even smaller and leave it up to the counties or the city?” “Or even better, take the government out of it completely and leave the choice about what women can do with their bodies and a person who knows what they could do with them the best — their husbands,” he continued. In a video statement released last week, Trump said he was proud to have appointed the Supreme Court justices who overturned the Roe v. Wade decision that had allowed legal abortions across the country. But he expressed support for exceptions to laws forbidding abortion that would allow them in cases of rape, incest or to save a mother’s life, and he did not back a ban on abortions after 15 or 16 weeks. He also took aim at whom he called “radical Democrats,” claiming the party supports up to and beyond the ninth month. “In a view on Truth Social, Donald Trump falsely said that Democrats support abortion up to the ninth month and beyond, saying the baby is executed at birth,” “Weekend Update” co-hostColin Jost quipped. “But he only thinks that happens because when Trump was a baby, a bunch of time travelers showed up trying to kill him.”

GOP senators: Trump hush money trial won’t move political needle - Republican senators, whose hopes of winning the Senate majority are riding on former President Trump’s strength as a general election candidate, say the hush money trial beginning this week in Manhattan will have little impact on the presidential race. Senate Republicans by and large predict that few votes will change in November even if Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) convicts Trump of some or even many of the 34 felony counts he faces for falsifying business records in connection to payments to porn actor Stormy Daniels. Some Republicans believe that Trump could even benefit politically, pointing to his surge in the polls when Bragg first unveiled the multicount indictment a year ago. “I think people have processed the fact that Donald Trump paid a porn star and committed adultery and misreported that on his tax forms. I think people assume that’s the case, and it’s not going to move the needle,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), one of Trump’s most outspoken critics, who doesn’t plan to vote for the likely GOP presidential nominee. Still, Romney said Bragg made “a poor political choice” in bringing what Republicans view as a weak case against Trump. Critics of the case point out that the alleged crimes are already past New York’s five-year statute of limitations for falsifying business records, and that Bragg had to connect them to state and federal election violations just to get them into court. “I don’t understand how from a legal standpoint you can get a conviction. The statute of limitations for things that happened back in 2017 has long since lapsed, so Alvin Bragg is trying to string this to an unindicted campaign expenditure violation, which strikes me as untenable,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee and former Texas Supreme Court justice. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), who is getting buzz as a potential running mate for Trump, waved off the case as something that will only help Trump argue to voters that he’s being unfairly prosecuted. “I actually think this particular case is so preposterous that it actively helps the president, and I’ve seen some polling to this effect,”

Trump hush money trial judge rejects new demand to recuse himself from case - — Former President Trump’s hush money judge declined to recuse himself from thetrial underway Monday, refusing Trump’s latest demand that he step aside over his daughter’s employment at a firm that works for prominent Democrats.Judge Juan Merchan’s denial, made from the bench on the first day of Trump’s first criminal trial, eliminates what could have been an eleventh-hour curveball before jury selection begins. He said the motion relied on “a series of references, innuendos and unsupported speculation.”“The defendants’ second motion for recusal is denied,” Merchan said, adding he won’t consider the matter again.It follows Merchan’s rejection of the former president’s similar recusal motion last year and a series of failed attempts by Trump’s legal team last week to stave off the fast-approaching trial.Ever since being charged in the case last year, Trump has repeatedly directed his ire at Merchan, attacking him on Truth Social and calling him a “highly conflicted & corrupt” judge. Those rebukes only grew as the judge issued a gag order limiting the former president’s public statements about trial participants and insisted the trial move ahead Monday over Trump’s objections.Like his earlier recusal motion, Trump’s latest effort took aim at Merchan’s daughter for her employment at Authentic, a progressive digital agency that has boasted the Biden-Harris campaign and other prominent Democrats as clients.The former president’s lawyers noted that Authentic’s clients, including Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), have used language in their digital marketing explicitly fundraising off Trump’s legal woes. “Authentic and Your Honor’s daughter are making money by supporting the creation and dissemination of campaign advocacy for President Trump’s opponent, political rivals, and the Democrat party,” Trump’s lawyers wrote in court papers. Last year, Merchan rejected Trump’s original recusal motion that also cited his daughter’s employment. That motion also noted $35 in donations Merchan made to the Biden campaign and two liberal-leaning groups before taking on Trump’s criminal case.

Alvin Bragg's Odd "Hush Money" (Except Not) 34-Felony Case Against Trump Begins by Lambert Strether -- Monday was the first day of Trump’s trial in Manhattan, which began amongst small crowds. The session was devoted to jury selection, although none were actually selected (“more than half of the 96 jurors called Monday said they couldn’t be ‘fair and impartial’ when it comes to the former president“). For me, the most dramatic event was Trump falling asleep, albeit briefly, which could actually be strategically brilliant: Trump should talk to voters — and do his all-important A/B testing! — via Zoom at night, and then sleep in court during the day! He could bring a pillow from that pillow guy. That would also keep him out of trouble! (Also, Trump said Judge Merchan denied his request to attend his son’s graduation, when what Merchan actually did was postpone a decision. Judge Merchan also said Trump would have to be in court next week,meaning he won’t be present when the Supreme Court hears arguments about his claims to Presidential immunity.) So this post will of necessity be short and simple: I will examine at the odd structure of Bragg’s case. I hope any real lawyers will step in and correct any errors….. First, the structure. From the Manhattan District Attorney’s press release, “District Attorney Bragg Announces 34-Count Felony Indictment of Former President Donald J. Trump“: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg, Jr. today announced the indictment of DONALD J. TRUMP, 76, for falsifying New York business records in order to conceal damaging information and unlawful activity from American voters before and after the 2016 election. During the election, TRUMP and others employed a “catch and kill” scheme to identify, purchase, and bury negative information about him and boost his electoral prospects. TRUMP then went to great lengths to hide this conduct, causing dozens of false entries in business records to conceal criminal activity, including attempts to violate state and federal election laws. The difficulty that Bragg’s press release glosses over is that the “catch and kill” scheme is not illegal. Falsifying business records is illegal, but it’s a misdemeanor except when committed in furtherance of another crime, when it becomes a felony (or, in this case, 34 felonies; Bragg pumped up the numbers, just as Smith did with his sekrit documents). So what is this other crime? Amazingly, Bragg does not say, but to my simple mind, “odd” is a fair word for this approach. Bragg’s filing, says the Press Release, comprises two documents: The Indictment, and the Statement of Facts. The 34 counts of the Indictment all look alike. Here is the 34th:

New York judge says Trump can’t attend Supreme Court arguments on presidential immunity The New York judge overseeing former President Trump’s hush money trial said Monday that Trump cannot attend arguments on presidential immunity at the Supreme Court next week. It came after the judge earlier delayed a decision on allowing Trump to attend his son Barron’s high school graduation in May. The attempts by Trump to take off certain days of his hush money trial that is expected to last weeks, if not months, came as the first day of trial was officially underway in Manhattan. The decision to not allow Trump to be in Washington, D.C., on April 25, when the Supreme Court is set to hear oral arguments on a presidential immunity claim Trump is making in his federal criminal case, came just before the New York trial adjourned Monday. “Arguing before the Supreme Court is a big deal, and I can certainly appreciate why your client would want to be there, but a trial in New York Supreme Court … is also a big deal,” Judge Juan Merchan said to Trump lawyer Todd Blanche, rejecting his request to let the former president play hooky. “I will see him here next week,” the judge added. Under New York state law, Trump is required to attend the entirety of his trial unless he gets special permission from the judge to skip. After court adjourned for the day, Trump suggested Merchan believes he is “superior” to the Supreme Court for preventing him from attending the high court’s oral arguments. The former president also accused Merchan of preventing him from attending his son Barron’s high school graduation in May. The judge declined to rule one way or another on the matter earlier Monday, but did not outright deny granting the former president the ability to attend the event. “I was looking forward to that graduation with his mother and father there,” Trump told reporters. “It looks like the judge isn’t going to allow me to escape this scam. It’s a scam trial.”

Jury selection complete in Trump’s hush money trial - – A full jury has been selected in former President Trump’s hush money case, setting the stage for opening remarks to begin Monday. After nearly 200 prospective jurors were screened by the judge, Trump’s lawyers and Manhattan prosecutors, a total of 12 jurors and six alternates were selected Friday to hear the first criminal case of any former U.S. president. “We’ve now completed jury selection for this case,” Justice Juan Merchan said. Trump is accused of falsifying business records to conceal a hush money deal with an adult film actress ahead of the 2016 election. He has pleaded not guilty. The jury is a melting pot of Manhattanites, with residents from Harlem to Chelsea, physical therapists to investment bankers and immigrants to lifelong New Yorkers. Jury selection took four days, the process somewhat complicated by Trump’s controversial political reputation, deep ties to New York City and coverage in the media. The final five alternates were selected early Friday afternoon, alleviating the need to bring in a third panel of 96 prospective jurors who were standing by in the courthouse. After being seated, the jurors were sworn in. They were ordered to return Monday morning, when the judge indicated he expects opening statements will begin. Roughly 100 New Yorkers excused themselves at the onset after admitting that they did not believe they could be “fair and impartial” to Trump. Around 50 New Yorkers excused themselves on each of the first two full days of jury selection after admitting that they did not believe they could be “fair and impartial” to Trump. Others suggested they knew people who knew Trump or were familiar with his contributions to the city, offering neutral and positive assessments of the former president’s time in the city.

CNN analyst warns of ‘civil unrest across the country’ if Trump jailed for gag order violation - CNN analyst Mark Preston said he thinks if former President Trump is jailed for violating the gag order in his hush money trial, there would be “civil unrest across the country” and it would help him in the polls. Preston joined CNN’s Jim Acosta and others to discuss the possibility of Judge Juan Merchan putting the former president in a holding cell “for a few hours” after he has deliberately defied the gag order in the case, which was expanded to bar Trump from publicly attacking witnesses, prosecutors, court staff, jurors and the judge’s family. “If that were to happen, first of all, I think you would probably see civil unrest across the country, certainly in some cities. That’s one,” he said, highlighted by Mediaite. “And two, politically, if I’m the Biden campaign, I don’t want to necessarily see him in jail, because that’s just going to get people more inflamed and more fired up.” Preston and the other panelists pointed to the politicization in the case and particularly how Trump has capitalized on his ongoing legal battles. After surrendering at a Fulton Country Jail for his Georgia election interference case, Trump’s mug shot has become a symbol of resistance.

Judge rejects Trump co-defendants’ request to dismiss charges in documents case A federal judge rejected efforts from former President Trump’s two co-defendants in the Mar-a-Lago case to toss the charges against them. The order from Judge Aileen Cannon rejects various motions from Trump valet Walt Nauta and property manager Carlos De Oliveira. Both men are facing charges in the case related to helping Trump move boxes across Mar-a-Lago to conceal them from law enforcement, as well as Trump’s attorney. Cannon rejected efforts from both men to get a more detailed breakdown of the claims they face, writing she “cannot say that the Indictment as a whole lacks sufficient information to assist Nauta in preparing for trial.” She also determined the arguments that they were unaware of the content of the boxes were not grounds for dismissing the case but rather were arguments the two should be prepared to make at trial. “Any particular challenges to the Special Counsel’s evidentiary showing can be made at trial, where the Special Counsel will bear the entire burden of proof as to all essential elements of the obstruction offenses,” she wrote. Cannon’s decision on the effort to dismiss the case from Trump’s two co-defendants comes as she has failed to make a decision on numerous motions from the former president asking her to toss the case.

Giuliani loses bid to dismiss $148 million defamation judgment - Rudy Giuliani lost his bid on Monday to dismiss the $148 million verdict handed to him last year in a defamation lawsuit brought by two former Georgia election workers. Giuliani filed for bankruptcy days after a Washington, D.C., jury ordered him to pay $148 million to Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss in a defamation trial in December. He had baselessly accused the two former election workers of committing fraud in the 2020 presidential election. U.S. District Judge Beryl A. Howell rejected Giuliani’s motion in an order Monday, explaining that Giuliani did not provide enough evidence as to why his verdict should be tossed or why he should be given a new trial. “Giuliani’s renewed motion urging this Court to reverse its prior findings and rulings and to override the jury’s considered verdict on the basis of five threadbare arguments falls well short of persuading that “the evidence and all reasonable inferences that can be drawn therefrom are so one-sided that reasonable men and women could not have reached a verdict in [plaintiffs’] favor.” Giuliani appealed the verdict after his bankruptcy judge allowed him to do so in February. Joseph Sibley, Giuliani’s attorney, said in a statement Monday that they will now appeal to the D.C. Circuit Court on the case.“This was a post-trial motion in the trial court that we were required to file to preserve certain issues for appeal. We are not at all surprised the trial court did not reverse its own prior rulings and we will now proceed with an appeal to the D.C. Circuit where we look forward to an appellate panel reviewing the case,” Sibley said.Attorneys for Giuliani had renewed his motion for judgment as a matter of law in February to the judge who oversaw the trial. His legal team said in court filings that the statements in question were protected under the First Amendment and insisted that they were not made with actual malice. He was found liable for the case months before the jury convened. The jury only needed to decide how much the former New York City mayor needed to pay in damages.

House banking panel advances measures to nullify credit card, ESG rules — The House Financial Services Committee voted along party lines to pass Congressional Review Act resolutions that would void measures from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and other banking regulators, and passed a raft of other banking-related bills. The resolutions are unlikely to make it into law, as Republicans lack the numbers to overturn a veto from President Joe Biden. The votes do, however, represent an uptick in the number of attempts by Republicans in Congress to nullify the Biden administration's financial policies. Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., led the legislation to block the CFPB's rule capping credit card late fees at $8. It passed through the panel in a 28-22 vote, to immediate applause from the banking industry. "As we've long said, this politically-motivated rule will increase the costs of credit cards for the vast majority of consumers who pay their credit cards on time, and it will significantly impact the long-term financial health of American cardholders who frequently pay late," said Consumer Bankers Association President and CEO Lindsey Johnson in a statement. "By passing this resolution to stop the rule from taking effect, the Committee has demonstrated its commitment to protecting consumers who pay on time and retaining access to credit for low-income and underbanked families." Senate Banking Committee ranking member Tim Scott, R-S.C., introduced an identical bill in the Senate on April 8. Although it has 13 Republican co-sponsors, President Joe Biden's explicit support for the rule makes it unlikely that Scott's resolution will receive any bipartisan support. The CFPB rule also faces a lawsuit from the U.S .Chamber of Commerce and other banking groups, and the 5th Circuit — a favored venue for groups looking to overturn Biden administration rules — is currently weighing whether to issue an injunction on the rule. The other Congressional Review Act resolutions dealt with climate change in financial regulation. One focused on the climate change disclosure requirement rules from the Securities and Exchange Commission, which has become less relevant to banks since the agency removed its requirement that firms report carbon emissions down its supply chain. The other three targeted identical statements on climate-related financial risk management for large financial institutions from the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Other measures that passed through the committee and now move to the full House include Rep. French Hill's, R-Ark., earned wage access bill, which would establish earned wage access products as a noncredit product, which Democratic objectors to the bill said would be harmful to consumers because those products would be exempt from the Truth in Lending Act. That also passed on a party-line vote, so it's also not likely to be picked up by the Senate

Senate Finance chair says hearing on Change Healthcare cyberattack is coming -- Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), chair of the Senate Finance Committee, said a hearing on the Change Healthcare cyberattack that disrupted health care system payments across the country will be coming soon. Speaking at the American Hospital Association’s (AHA) Annual Membership Meeting, Wyden said, “We’ll be heading towards a hearing under the system of how we announce things, you know, we’ll be getting into that here very, very shortly,” when asked about the cybersecurity breach. “It’s clear that nobody is ready for this,” said Wyden. “We’re going to have to bring in the best minds and people from a variety of systems.”The attack on Change Healthcare, a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group, has caused health systems and providers to lose revenue due to unpaid claims. Change Healthcare provides technology used to submit and process insurance claims. A recent survey from the AHA found that 80 percent of practices said they have experienced revenue loss due to unpaid claims.The Washington Post previously reported that the hearing will take place April 30, with UnitedHealth Group CEO Andrew Witty being the sole witness. A company spokesperson also confirmed to Politico that Witty would be testifying. A spokesperson for Senate Finance Democrats did not confirm a hearing when reached for comment by The Hill.Chiquita Brooks-LaSure, administrator for the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, was also at the AHA meeting on Monday and emphasized the need to build “resilience” in the U.S. health care system in light of the cyberattack.“You have this moment where I don’t think people realize just how much the clearinghouses really affected care in this country,” said Brooks-LaSure. “I think it caught many of us off-guard. And while this was a particular cyberattack, it could have been elsewhere.”

AI making ransomware easier, more prevalent, committee hears -- Artificial intelligence (AI) is making ransomware faster and easier to use as the online crime hits record levels, experts said at a House Financial Services subcommittee hearing Tuesday.“We have tremendous concern about the future of AI and the direction it is allowing criminal actors to take, including more sophisticated deepfakes that ultimately form the first step in the chain of ransomware attacks,” said Megan Stifel, chief strategy officer at the Institute for Security and Technology.“Unfortunately, the stakes keep getting higher,” she said.As attacks have become more complex, and the barrier for entry into deploying ransomware gets lower, organizations are more frequently facing threats to the sensitive, personal data of their employees and customers, Stifel told the Financial Services subcommittee on national security and illicit finance.“As AI continues to grow more sophisticated, cyber criminals will harness these technological advancements to exploit the vulnerabilities of their victims,” Vice Chair Rep. Young Kim (R-Calif.) said. According to crypto-tracking firm Chainalysis, ransomers stole more than $1 billion from U.S. organizations in 2023, the highest amount ever recorded, with a 70 percent increase in the number of victims from the year prior.“Small businesses and Main Street are getting hammered,” Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas), said.Jacqueline Burns Koven, head of cyber threat intelligence at Chainalysis, said the frequency and severity of ransomware against U.S. organizations, especially financial institutions, reached “an unprecedented milestone” in 2023.Ransomware gangs are now using sophisticated attacks to go “big-game hunting,” with “as much as 75 percent of [ransom payments being] $1 million or more” in 2023, Koven said.Lawmakers on the subcommittee discussed measures such as increasing resources available to federal law enforcement, offering tax credits for organizations that take preventative cybersecurity measures, making cybersecurity insurance more accessible and incentivizing the training of more cybersecurity and investigative personnel.“The cybersecurity workforce is obviously paramount to the safety and soundness of the U.S. economy,” Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.), said.“With AI and automation central to modern cyber defenses, it is critical we educate and train the cyber workforce of tomorrow,” Daniel Sergile, senior consulting director from Unit 42, a cyber crimes task force of Palo Alto Networks, said in his written statement to the committee.

Crypto influencer convicted in $110m scam - Crypto crook Avi Eisenberg is off to jail after being convicted on various charges of fraud and market manipulation over shenanigans run on the decentralized exchange Mango Markets.Eisenberg is scheduled to be sentenced on July 29 and is facing "a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison on the commodities fraud count and the commodities manipulation count, and a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison on the wire fraud count," the DOJ said. … The scheme impacted both investors trading and the exchange itself, which had to suspend operations after Eisenberg's attack made the exchange insolvent.The crypto hype men have moved on to AI, but the real grifters areheading into the "finding out" stage. The U.S. Justice Department writesthat this is the first conviction of its type."Avraham Eisenberg executed a manipulative trading scheme on a cryptocurrency exchange, defrauding the exchange and its investors out of $110 million," said Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Nicole M. Argentieri, head of the Justice Department's Criminal Division. "Manipulative trading puts our financial markets and investors at risk. This prosecution—the first involving the manipulation of cryptocurrency through open-market trades—demonstrates the Criminal Division's commitment to protecting U.S. financial markets and holding wrongdoers accountable, no matter what mechanism they use to commit manipulation and fraud." "Moments ago, Avraham Eisenberg was found guilty by a unanimous jury in the first-ever cryptocurrency open-market manipulation case," said U.S. Attorney Damian Williams for the Southern District of New York. "This ground-breaking prosecution epitomizes this office's ability to employ innovative methods and cutting-edge law enforcement tools to continue to protect all financial markets. The career prosecutors of this office continue their expertise in prosecuting financial fraud, one of our core priorities, and would-be financial criminals should think twice before daring to engage in illicit conduct on our watch."

Victim says he's out tens of thousands of dollars after cryptocurrency scam in Delaware County - - Pennsylvania state police are investigating two alleged cryptocurrency scams reported within the past two months in Delaware County. One victim tells Action News he's out tens of thousands of dollars. He asked that we hide his identity. "It seemed like a really good way to make some extra money because I am retired," the victim told Action News Investigative Reporter Chad Pradelli. He says a friend referred him to a financial opportunity: day trade cryptocurrency. "Told me about this other person who was helping him out. Got set up and tried it with a little bit of money," he said. The platform appeared legitimate. It seemed he was making money. He even made a couple of small withdrawals. "When I took out money, it worked," he said. But when he wanted to withdraw a large sum, the warning flags blew like hurricane winds. "They said they had to do a capital verification and to send them $278,000 and, once that was released, they'd send the money back." He now believes he was scammed. He reported the alleged fraud to state police. "Like a pit in my stomach. How could I be so stupid?" he said. Drexel professor and expert in computer and technological crimes Rob D'Ovidio says crypto scams are exploding worldwide. Some estimates peg it at a multi-billion dollar fraud industry. "The Wild Wild West when it comes to crypto. We're not connecting to any sort of regulatory regime as we would with normal investments," D'Ovidio says. D'Ovidio's advice is to stick to platforms that advertise extensively. "That gives some assurances that they are legitimate," he added. D'Ovidio says recovering stolen investments in the crypto space is nearly impossible with many of these criminal networks operating in countries without extradition treaties with the United States. State police have not commented on the investigations.

Europe may have an answer to U.S. wire transfer fraud questions -A move by Citigroup to dismiss what it called a "misguided" and "imaginative" wire-fraud lawsuit by the New York attorney general has gotten a mixed reception among bankers, many of whom sympathize with Citi's pushback while others say banks can do more to protect their customers. The move also highlights ongoing debates in the U.S. and abroad about who should be liable when a consumer loses money to a bank spoofing scam. While Europe is moving toward holding banks liable, the U.S. has not seen any such proposals. Letitia James, the state's attorney general, sued Citibank in January for inadequate responses to "obvious red flags of identity theft and account takeover" cases, allowing fraud to take place, including against one customer who had $40,000 stolen from her via wire transfer after she clicked on a fraudulent link she received in a text message. Citi denied her case, according to the lawsuit. According to James' office, the customer "did not provide any information" after clicking on the fraudulent link she received. Yet, after clicking the link, an unauthorized user changed her online banking password, enrolled her account in online wire transfer services, tried and failed to make a wire transfer of $39,999, then successfully executed a $40,000 transfer, which constituted most of her savings after a recent retirement. This month, Citigroup filed a motion to dismiss the case, acknowledging a recent rise in online wire fraud but arguing that banks are not liable for reimbursing customers who got scammed through wire fraud schemes. "There is no denying that the problem is real," the bank wrote, but the New York state AG's lawsuit "defies longstanding, settled understandings" of banks' liability in cases of fraud. In reaction to the motion to dismiss the case, bankers on LinkedIn largely responded in defense of their institutions. "In this case, it seems the victim clicked a link that appeared to be from Citi," said Ana Campaneria-Villarini, director of corporate fraud for BankUnited. "Well, the victim fell for it! It's sad but shouldn't be the fault of the bank. Why should the banks be liable?" Many responders sympathized to varying degrees. One commenter, Elena Michaeli, a fraud and cybersecurity consultant, pointed out that while banks have little recourse when a victim provides their banking credentials to a fraudster, banks have much more data and tools at their disposal than consumers. In Europe, lawmakers have proposed changes that could entitle consumers to refunds in cases of bank spoofing, where a fraudster pretends to be the consumer's bank and tricks them into parting with their money. Only in cases of "gross negligence" — for example, if the victim falls for the same scheme more than once, or if the spoof is not convincing — would the payment service provider escape refund liability, according to the proposed regulation. The proposals also create a legal basis for payment service providers to voluntarily exchange personal data of their users, subject to information sharing arrangements, for the purposes of reducing fraud. The legislation would require such information sharing to happen in compliance with Europe's General Data Protection Regulation. The proposals are under review by the European Parliament and Council, and while exact timelines are not yet known, any changes to fraud loss liability and data sharing arrangements could take 18 to 24 months to enter into force once agreed upon by member states of the European Union. "It is currently anticipated that the legislative proposals will enter into force in 2026," wrote global law firm DLA Piper in a blog post about the proposals

Fed report: Inflation, policy uncertainty top financial stability concerns — Inflation and uncertainty surrounding the direction of federal policy on trade, spending and other issues are banks' top financial stability concerns, the Federal Reserve Board said in a report released Friday. For its semiannual report on financial stability, the Fed surveyed a range of financial professionals — including broker-dealers, investment fund managers, research and advisory professionals as well as academics — about the top issues facing the financial system. Policy uncertainty emerged as a major new source of anxiety for industry experts — it was cited by 60% of respondents, up from the just 24% of respondents who cited it as a top concern in the Fed's last survey in October 2023. Since 2019, the Fed has issued two reports on financial stability per year, usually releasing one in the spring and another in the fall. Persistent inflation and high interest rates remained the top concern across the board, with 72% of respondents listing it as their primary concern — the same percentage as in the October report. The report indicated that interest rates may remain elevated above current market expectations for an extended period and that persistent inflation could prompt a more stringent monetary policy, causing increased volatility in financial markets and adjustments in asset valuations. But the rise of policy uncertainty — including unpredictability stemming from fluctuating trade policies, influenced by geopolitical tensions such as the conflict in the Middle East and Russia's war against Ukraine that has lasted more than two years — was an unexpected source of market disruption for many survey respondents. Respondents also flagged the upcoming U.S. elections in November as a source of stress. "Further escalation of geopolitical tensions or policy uncertainty could reduce economic activity, boost inflation, and heighten volatility in financial markets," the report said. "The global financial system could be affected by a pullback from risk-taking, declines in asset prices, and losses for exposed U.S. and foreign businesses and investors."

Is the Fed board eroding regional Fed banks' independence? -The Federal Reserve Board of Governors has a greater say over leadership at the reserve banks than it once did. But whether that benefits the central banking system is an open debate. The board has always played an oversight role for the selection of the top executives at the 12 regional reserve banks. The Fed's founding legislation, the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, notes that reserve bank boards of directors must submit their presidential picks to the Washington-based Federal Reserve Board for approval. But sometime after the passage of the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010 — roughly around 2014 or 2015 — the board took a less passive role, one that involved regular meetings with the reserve bank search committee, and an active hand in selecting candidates and the interview process for all finalists. "The new process, I think, is better characterized as board-reserve bank directors' co-management of the process," said former Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, who believes this heavier handed approach has eroded reserve bank independence. Christina Parajon Skinner, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business who researches central banking and financial regulation, said it is hard to determine the exact nature of the Board's involvement in presidential searches. But, "observationally," she said the agency's involvement seems to stretch the Board's statutory limits. "This change in governance practice will shift the allocation of power between the Board and reserve banks that Congress originally intended in the system," Skinner said. Other Fed historians and policy analysts are comfortable with the Board's level of engagement in presidential search processes. They note that a system in which the Board's only consultation was at the end of a search process would be inefficient, as a veto could force a reserve bank to go back to square one.

Fed's Powell touts benefits of international coordination - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said U.S. policymakers benefit from participating ininternational governance groups — in good times and bad.Speaking during a policy forum on Tuesday, Powell spoke about the advantages of engaging with other central banks through organizations such as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. He noted that collaboration is particularly helpful during moments of crisis."When there is a situation where there's serious stress, you need to get a global perspective, you need to get perspective around the world, and you need to do that very quickly," Powell said. "The thing that you figure out in those times is that [because of] all the time you spent in Basel, in G7, G20 meetings, you know your colleagues, you know and trust and respect their judgment, and you don't have to go through that that phase of gaining trust in people. You understand each other, you speak the same language."Powell added that those groups have also been useful policymaking resources during calmer periods. He pointed to the Fed's monetary policy review, which was conducted between 2019 and 2020, and its various regulatory reform efforts as areas that have benefited from looking abroad."Part of the way that I get to thinking about what the right policy is for the United States is to hear what is going on around the world, what's happening globally and how people think about that," he said. "So it's very, very useful."Powell's comments came during the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy, an event hosted by the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, D.C. He was joined on stage by his counterpart Tiff Macklem, the top ranking official at the Bank of Canada.Macklem said collaboration between countries is essential for crafting some policies, such asregulatory requirements and anti-money laundering standards."There are some things that we're only going to succeed at if we do them together. The obvious one would be financial supervision and regulation. Our financial systems globally are highly integrated. We were deeply reminded of this in the global financial crisis. What happens in other countries affects all of us. And money flows across borders," he said. "We have to do that together, or it's not going to work."The comments from the central bank leaders come as the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision faces renewed skepticism in some circles of Washington as a result of capital reforms proposed by bank regulators last summer.

Capital reform could 'deviate' from Basel agreement: Fed's Bowman --The Federal Reserve Board governor and frequent regulatory critic says it would be appropriate for the U.S. to deviate from the agreed-upon international standards to reflect "unique characteristics" of the American banking system.Synthetic securitization volume has been growing steadily since 2018, when the European Central Bank expressly permitted CLNs for capital relief. To date, CLNs haven't triggered any bank failures in Europe. CLNs are safer than their precursor credit default swaps because the issuer receives an upfront cash payment in exchange for the risk transfer. If there is a default event on the underlying asset, the issuer is simply relieved of its obligation to repay the note purchaser, either in full or in part, depending on the terms. The upfront cash payment eliminates the risk that the note purchaser will be unwilling or unable to reimburse the bank, which is what happened in certain instances in 2008. Furthermore, CLNs allow banks to remain compliant with the post-2008 requirement to hold some of the risk, one of the Dodd-Frank reforms that discourages banks from generating overly risky assets.Still, the Fed's decision on CLNs has its critics, including Sheila Bair, who served as chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation during the Great Recession. Bair has argued against the use of synthetic securitization as it transfers risk to less regulated entities, like private equity and hedge funds. Bair and other critics believe that widespread use of CLNs and other SRTs could undermine the overall health of the banking system and credit markets, especially since many private equity and hedge funds now have substantial lending operations of their own, a dynamic that was not significant during the Great Recession.

Fed's Bowman says she sees path forward for altered capital proposal — Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman believes there is a viable path forward for the revised capital reform proposal, stressing the need for broad changes informed by industry feedback to secure consensus among Federal Reserve board members. For the proposal to advance, she suggested federal regulators should repropose it with sweeping changes, also taking into account the simultaneous impacts of various pending regulations on banks. "It's about striking the right balance and I don't see that there are insurmountable obstacles to achieving a more effective or efficient set of Basel capital reforms here in the U.S.," she said. "But I agree with the assessment that Chair Powell noted that the proposal, the way it stands now, requires broad and material changes." In her remarks — delivered to an audience at the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association's Basel III endgame roundtable — Bowman stressed that any revamped Basel rule needs to have broad support on the Federal Reserve board, something Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also previously emphasized. Among Bowman's concerns were that the proposed regulations overestimate the risks posed by various banking activities — citing places where the proposal imposes significant increases in risk-weighting on bank assets without clear justification for the risks involved. She said she worries such over-calibration could have adverse effects on agricultural loans, for example, where banks may pull back lending given higher costs associated with funding such activities. Bowman has long been a critic of the proposal, voting against issuing the draft rule for comment in 2023. She has also raised concerns that the capital reforms — largely pursuant to the international standards set by the Basel Committee on Bank Supervision — go above and beyond the international standards in harmful ways. The Fed plans to publish for comment a study gauging the quantitative impacts of the proposal. Bowman said she looks forward to the study because it will shed light on what aspects of the proposal should be changed.

BankThink: Basel delay won't diminish banks' appetite for synthetic risk transfers | American Banker -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made headlines last month when he remarked before the Senate that tough new capital requirements will be revised, if not altogether scrapped. Powell's comments surprised bankers and money managers who for months have been preparing for the Federal Reserve Board's proposed Basel III endgame implementation, which was slated to go fully into effect in 2025. However, the rules received overwhelmingly negative feedback during the comment period, from not only banks, bank interest groups and the Business Roundtable, but also from civil rights groups, including the NAACP and the National Housing Conference. Critics pointed out negative impacts of the new capital requirements, which range from stifling economic growth and innovation by business borrowers to the disproportionate impact they would have on traditionally underbanked communities and communities of color, particularly in the context of homeownership. Further, it was noted the new requirements would have unintended consequences, like driving many borrowers to less regulated nonbank lenders. Now, Powell says to expect Basel III revisions by the end of the year.This is an excellent example of an independent agency understanding both the process and its varied constituents. While guardrails are needed to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial meltdown, as written, Basel III endgame requirements will both hamstring banks' ability to generate new business and negatively impact consumers. Clearly, the Federal Reserve Board is trying to strike a balance that minimizes risk-taking — thereby ensuring the resilience of the banking system — while preserving market liquidity, even if it means going back to the drawing board. Coupled with other actions the Fed has taken in recent months, there seems to be an emerging ethos to trust the process rather than reshape it, unlike in the Dodd-Frank era. In essence, the Fed has followed the regulatory process as it is conceptually laid out in U.S. administrative law. And a pragmatic, measured approach to enhanced capital requirements is exactly what banks and credit consumers need right now.Signs of this approach surfaced last fall when the Fed clarified its position on synthetic risk transfers as a capital mitigation strategy and credit-linked notes, or CLNs, in particular. Although the Fed did not go as far as some banks would have liked, the September 2023 FAQ was clearly a road map for banks to at least partially offset rigorous Basel III capital requirements. First, the Fed stated that CLNs would qualify automatically for capital relief if issued through a special-purpose vehicle. Second, the Fed noted that it would be willing on a case-by-case basis to consider direct CLNs issued from a bank to note purchasers for capital relief.This FAQ demonstrated that the Fed was sympathetic to banks' needs to free up capital and also seemed to indicate that they were aware of the probable negative impacts on borrowers, especially underbanked consumers with less robust lending options. At the same time, by taking a case-by-case approach, the Fed indicated that it would be closely monitoring the market for direct CLNs to avoid some of the risk-taking that occurred in 2008. This is a very practical approach that brings the U.S. in line with Europe, where CLNs are already in widespread use as a capital relief strategy and significant risk trade, or SRT.

BankThink: Beware the banking industry's diversionary tactics on Basel - As a former regulator, secretary general of IOSCO — the International Organization of Securities Commissions — and now as part of CFA Institute, I have been involved in capital markets and financial stability issues for some time. From this perch, I take exception with the constant grumbling of the U.S. banking industry and their lobbyists casting the Basel III process as a threat to the economic prosperity of individual citizens and the overall competitiveness of the U.S. economy. To be clear, the cost to our economy and its citizens for having inadequate bank capitalization and poor risk management practices during the global financial crisis was enormous and detrimental. The opponents of Basel III are many of the same organizations at the center of that crisis and their complaints about the rules being proposed in Basel III are at best ironic, and at worst irresponsible. We have yet to complete the work agreed upon for bolstering our economic resilience postcrisis and Basel III brings us full circle in our efforts to improve systemic risk protections and expand the set of tools for dealing with economic instability.The latest proposals from the Financial Stability Oversight Council are long overdue. The proposed measures complete systemic risk improvements left undone since the financial crisis. Basel III proposals are minimum standards that are an essential part of the commitments made to address gaps in systemic risk and improve the preparedness of our economic system following the worst financial disaster in the U.S. economy since the Great Depression. In the many years since, a flow of proposals has continued to build economic resilience into our system. Basel III is no different. It is simply the latest effort to keep pace with evolving systemic threats.Industry advocates have made repeated claims that the U.S. banking system is currently sufficiently capitalized and has easily weathered economic disruptions since the global financial crisis. While banks are certainly better capitalized than before, this argument completely ignores the fact that multiple forms of public support and assistance have been provided through government backstops. They include unprecedented fiscal and monetary support in the aftermath of the crisis, the COVID pandemic and most recently, the use of the "systemic risk exception" to backstop the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank and Signature Bank. Basel III is a meaningful step forward in ensuring that banking organizations maintain a level of regulatory capital that sufficiently reduces the probability that systemwide mechanisms will be invoked, particularly for large, operationally complex institutions with significant market exposures. To be blunt, we still have no solution for "too big to fail" banks, which have grown in number since the financial crisis.It is also important to remember that the Basel III initiatives are part of a much broader, global effort. International standards were designed in the GFC aftermath to reduce the probability of global financial contagion and to reduce the likelihood that public support would be necessary during periods of severe economic downturn. Politicians routinely mischaracterize these efforts as domestic banking authorities taking their cues from global governance bodies. This is simply not true. The fact is these latest proposals were agreed to long ago and are part of continued global coordination that includes a simpler, standardized approach to capital requirements. This is particularly important in the areas of credit risk and ever-more sophisticated risks to operational preparedness. Basel III is not a matter of taking cues, but it is pivotal for ensuring consistent application for banking organizations across the world, particularly given the global nature of financial services today. To understand the implications of Basel III, the CFA Institute Systemic Risk Council evaluated the potential impact of the initiative's key features.First, the proposed rules would materially revise and extend the regulatory capital requirements that apply to large banking organizations and those with significant trading activity adding crucial economic capacity to weather systemic disruptions.Additionally, this new framework for calculating risk-weighted assets, referred to as the expanded risk-based approach, would be broadened to apply to all large banks, defined as banking organizations with total assets of $100 billion or more that would help cover vulnerabilities in banks similar in size to the likes of Silicon Valley Bank.Finally, the expanded risk-weight approach introduces a more comparable and consistent framework for calculating capital requirements for credit, market, operational and credit valuation risks. This greatly facilitates more effective supervisory and market assessments of capital adequacy.

Amid probes, Morgan Stanley vows not to change its wealth strategy - Morgan Stanley isn't changing the way it runs its wealth management business, even as various federal agencies probe the unit for potential money laundering issues, top executives said Tuesday. Five days after the Wall Street Journal reported on the existence of multiple investigations into how the investment bank vets prospective clients and the source of their wealth, CEO Ted Pick minimized the situation, saying that the firm has "been spending time, effort and money" on the issues for many years."This is not a new matter," Pick told analysts during the company's first-quarter earnings call. "We've been focused on our client onboarding and monitoring processes for a good while."He pointed to record revenue in wealth management — where net revenue totaled $6.9 billion for the quarter — as well as strong margins and a boost in net new assets, and said the costs associated with improving processes are mostly baked into the firm's forecasted expenses.In response to an analyst's question about whether the investigations would alter the business strategy around wealth management, Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said they wouldn't."This is a phenomenal business … and we're in a great position," she said. "There are no changes in our ability to do business, and we're extremely confident in our ability to grow and to deepen the relationship with the breadth of firm offerings that we have to serve our clients."Wealth management has been critical to Morgan Stanley's business model since the 2008 financial crisis. Last year, the unit reported net revenues of $26.3 billion, nearly half of the firm's total net revenues of $54.1 billion.Acquisitions have helped grow the division. In 2020, Morgan Stanley bought the discount brokerage E-Trade Financial. Years prior, it acquired the retail brokerage Smith Barney from Citigroup.Government agencies that are looking into the business include the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network and Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control, according to the Wall Street Journal.The Federal Reserve is running a similar probe, the Wall Street Journal reported in November.

Jamie Dimon Dumped $150 Million of His JPMorgan Stock in February; Now He Says His Regulators Want 25 Percent More Capital at his Bank -By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: --On October 27 of last year, JPMorgan Chase filed an 8K form with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) advising that, for the first time ever, its long-tenured Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, and his family, intended to “sell 1 million shares” of his common stock holdings in the bank in 2024.The news made headlines because an insider selling a large amount of stock in any company – and particularly a bank with JPMorgan Chase’s serial history of running afoul of the law – can be a harbinger of bad news ahead for other shareholders. Dimon didn’t wait long into 2024 to start dumping stock. JPMorgan Chase filed another SEC form this past February showing that Dimon had sold 821,778 shares of the bank’s common stock for $150,167,222.52, or an average share price of $182.73 – which was suspiciously close to the stock’s all-time high at that point. Dimon has acquired the bulk of his shares in the same fashion as his former mentor, Sandy Weill, acquired his shares in Citigroup – through stock grants from his hear no evil, see no evil Board of Directors. (Dimon had, in his earlier years, been Weill’s first lieutenant at Citigroup.) In spin that is similar to Weill’s tactics, Jamie Dimon has, for more than a decade, attempted to brainwash Congress, the media, and the public at large by referring to his bank as the “Fortress Balance sheet.” His latest letter to shareholders uses the phrase five times – at one point phrasing it as an “unquestionable fortress balance sheet.”And yet, in the same letter to shareholders, Dimon concedes that his bank’s federal regulators don’t have the same level of confidence in this so-called “Fortress.” Dimon writes that if the capital rules proposed by the FDIC, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve are implemented, they “would increase our firm’s required capital by 25%.”

Stanford Finance Professor Anat Admati Is Making Jamie Dimon Very Nervous – Again Calling His Bank “Dangerous” -- By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: April 16, 2024 ~ Stanford Finance and Economics Professor Anat Admati has been valiantly attempting to save the American financial system from the corrupting influence and disinformation campaigns of men like JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon for more than a decade. Her voice is gaining traction and that’s making Dimon very nervous. Dimon has admitted in his recent letter to shareholders that his federal banking regulators want the bank to raise 25 percent more capital. Making banks hold more equity capital (as opposed to debt) is an issue that Admati has made a central focus of her arguments for years.Dimon’s bank would have a lot more equity capital if Dimon had retained the bank’s earnings each year instead of tapping those earnings to boost the bank’s stock price by using $117 billion of the bank’s earnings for share buybacks over the past decade. (Retained earnings add to a bank’s equity capital.) Dimon became a billionaire as a result of the bank’s inflated share price, because his Board gave him the bulk of his annual compensation in shares of stock. (In February of this year, Dimon cashed out $150 million of that stock.)In 2011, one year before Dimon called a growing financial crisis at JPMorgan Chase “a tempest in a teapot,” Admati penned an open letter to the bank’s Board of Directors and published it at Huffington Post. In the letter, she wrote: “Mr. Dimon claims that higher capital requirements would increase JPM’s cost, but his reasoning is flawed. “It is critical first to distinguish capital and liquidity requirements. Capital requirements are not about what banks ‘hold.’ They do not mandate that banks passively ‘set aside,’ or ‘hold in reserve’ funds, not putting them to productive uses. Banks’ investments are not constrained by capital requirements. Capital requirements refer only to how banks fund themselves. It is investors, not the banks, who hold the debt and equity (so-called ‘capital’) claims that banks issue. Liquidity requirements, by contrast, do constrain the types of assets banks hold, and they can be costly. Capital and liquidity requirements refer to different sides of the balance sheet.” Now, at the worst time possible for Dimon, as he attempts to bully regulators into scrapping their demands for higher capital at JPMorgan Chase, out comes Admati with an updated and expanded version of the highly readable, pristinely documented, seminal book on bank capital and the bankers’ disinformation campaign around it: The Bankers’ New Clothes: What’s Wrong with Banking and What to Do about It. The book is co-authored with German economist Martin Hellwig. In it, Admati and Hellwig write this:“The term ‘fortress balance sheet’ that Mr. Dimon loves to use conveys a sense of safety and security, the opposite of vulnerability and fragility. But if one examines the actual risks lurking around the size and type of the bank’s investments and debts, the strength of the fortress can be called into question. A closer look suggests that JPMorgan Chase is highly vulnerable and is imposing significant risk on the global financial system.“Some of the risks that make JPMorgan Chase dangerous cannot actually be seen by looking at its balance sheet because the positions that give rise to them are not included there. These are risks from business units that JPMorgan Chase might own in part or that it sponsors, and to which it has provided guarantees to serve as a backstop if they should have funding problems. These units might be full-flown subsidiaries, or they might be mere ‘letterhead firms,’ vehicles without any drivers, that are established for legal or tax reasons only. The bank’s commitments to these units amount to almost a trillion dollars, but these potential liabilities of the bank are left off the bank’s balance sheet. Yet they are quite relevant to the financial health of JPMorgan Chase.”The authors note that these same kind of off-balance sheet exposures bankrupted Enron in 2001 and required bailouts of mega banks in 2007 and 2008 from their off-balance sheet exposures to subprime mortgage debt. (See our 2008 article on the Rise and Fall of Citigroup.)Senator Elizabeth Warren said last month in a Senate Banking Committee hearing that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has become “weak-kneed” and is now “driving efforts inside the Fed to weaken the capital rule.”That leaves the Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr; FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg; and Acting Comptroller of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Michael Hsu, on the frontlines of the regulators’ battle to stand firm on higher capital for the mega banks on Wall Street. The future financial health of the U.S. economy and the U.S. financial system depends on these regulators not also becoming weak-kneed.Not only do these regulators need to stick to their proposed higher capital rules, but they need to immediately push for the restoration of the Glass-Steagall Act to separate federally-insured banks from the trading casinos on Wall Street.

BankThink: What will it actually take to let big banks fail? | American Banker — Last week Martin Gruenberg, chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., gave a speech detailing how he and his fellow bank regulators have a plan for allowing banks — even big banks — to fail without resorting to bailouts or extraordinary measures to keep the macroeconomic humpty-dumpty together. "The ability of the FDIC and other U.S. regulatory authorities to manage the orderly resolution of large complex financial institutions remains foundational to U.S. financial stability," Gruenberg said. "Should the need arise, we are prepared to apply the resolution framework that the FDIC and other regulatory authorities in the U.S. and globally have worked so hard to develop." Gruenberg's speech was supported by a detailed report laying out how exactly the FDIC would proceed with resolving a global systemically important bank using its Dodd-Frank Title II authorities. The substance of the report is not especially new: The emphasis appears to be on utilizing a Single Point of Entry model whereby the FDIC takes over and resolves the bank holding company while the bank and other subsidiaries continue to function — more or less the same strategy that regulators have preferred since the first GSIB living wills were submitted a decade ago. First and foremost, I think it's worth saying that preemptively thinking through how any bank — even the very biggest banks — could fail without holding the global economy hostage is important and vexing work that regulators don't get enough credit for doing. I'm also sympathetic to the challenge of trying to anticipate and counter a calamity that will almost by definition include an element of surprise. It's like NASA issuing a report on how they would repel an alien invasion — there are so many ways for a bank to fail, including ones that no one has thought of yet, that no one could possibly think of them all. Even so, a great deal of thought has gone into this problem over the years — it's like the Sword in the Stone for financial regulatory policymakers.My concern is that I don't think markets and the public believe anyone who says that "too big to fail" is over — no matter who says it or how forcefully they say it. The idea that, when push comes to shove, those in charge will make the bad thing go away is so deeply rooted in market expectations that unraveling it would require an act of tough love that no regulator, administration or Congress would be able to bring themselves to inflict.That sentiment was likely reinforced by the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic last year. To be sure, those banks weren't "bailed out" in the mode of 2008 — the government didn't fork over a bunch of money to keep those banks as a going concern, and investors and executives lost a bunch of money. But the systemic risk exception invoked to cover uninsured deposits sent the message — right or wrong — that regulators weren't comfortable with the collateral damage that failing to insure those uninsured deposits would inflict on a fragile economy in the interest of sending a message. I'm not sure I would have made a different call myself. But there's always — always — collateral damage in a large bank failure, either in the form of material losses, consumer confidence or both. Innocent parties will get hurt, and I'm not sure there's a plan that could limit that pain unless the bank is sufficiently small to keep the pain localized or the right bank fails at exactly the right time for the right reason. And markets know how unlikely that is, and will assume the biggest banks are immortal until they have a reason to think otherwise.

Warren, Blumenthal press OCC on NYCB-Flagstar deal approval — Two Democratic senators have raised concerns with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency over its approval of New York Community Bancorp's acquisition of Flagstar Bancorp in late 2022, according to a letter first seen by American Banker. Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., a leading progressive voice on the Senate Banking Committee, and Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., were critical of Flagstar's fair lending practices and New York Community's exposure to multifamily loans. The lawmakers said that, according to a report from The Capitol Forum, an anonymous Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. employee said that the agency wasn't comfortable recommending approval of the deal. "After a year had passed without FDIC movement, NYCB and Flagstar schemed to restructure their merger so it no longer needed FDIC approval," the lawmakers said in the letter, sent Monday afternoon. "Flagstar converted from a federal savings bank, under FDIC oversight, to a national bank under OCC's authority, cutting FDIC out of the process and allowing the banks to merge after OCC approval." After the Flagstar deal, New York Community received FDIC and OCC approval to take over Signature Bank following that bank's failure. That deal pushed New York Community above the$100 billion threshold that mandates higher prudential standards. According to Warren and Blumenthal, the pair of deals contributed to the turmoil New York Community found itself in earlier this year."Ultimately, these two rushed, rubber-stamped mergers created grave risks for NYCB," the lawmakers said. "NYCB's chief risk officer and chief audit executive left their posts soon after the Signature acquisition, foreshadowing the incoming storm."After the two deals, the OCC continued to be lax in its oversight of New York Community, Warren and Blumenthal said."The OCC reviewed NYCB's financials every quarter, yet allowed NYCB to pay consistent dividends, up until the most recent drastic cut," they said in the letter. "This is deeply troubling, especially since lax bank examiner oversight was a major factor of the March 2023 bank failures. Regulators promised to do better, but the near-collapse of NYCB in early 2024 indicated the OCC has once again abdicated its oversight responsibilities." The senators asked the OCC to provide more information on why the agency approved the Flagstar deal, if the agency consulted with the FDIC and other details about the OCC's oversight of New York Community by May 15.

USA Regional Banks Dramatically Step Up Loans to Oil and Gas A group of US regional banks is ratcheting up lending to oil, gas and coal clients, grabbing market share as bigger European rivals back away. The list of banks includes Citizens Financial Group Inc., BOK Financial Corp. and Truist Securities Inc., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The companies have climbed between 13 and 40 steps up the league table for fossil-fuel lenders since the end of 2021, placing them among the world’s top 35 banks by number of deals. Fifth Third Securities Inc. and US Bancorp, already in the top 30, both ascended 10 steps in the same period. Since the start of 2022, the combined number of fossil-fuel loans provided by Citizens Financial, BOK Financial, Truist Securities, Fifth Third and US Bancorp rose more than 70% on an average annualized basis, compared with the preceding six years, the Bloomberg data show. Spokespeople for Truist, Fifth Third and US Bancorp declined to comment. Rory Sheehan, a spokesperson for Citizens Financial, said the bank supports initiatives enabling the transition toward a lower-carbon future. He also said the bank recognizes the role of the oil and gas industry. The development offers a glimpse of how the US banking landscape is being altered against a backdrop of stricter climate regulations across the Atlantic. US regional lenders — shaken by the crisis that followed Silicon Valley Bank’s meltdown — are participating in more fossil-fuel loans as banks in Europe begin to pull away for fear of getting caught on the wrong side of environmental, social and governance regulations and climate litigation. “Someone betting heavily that the demand for fossil fuels will keep on rising significantly is clearly taking a view that is at odds with existing forecasts,” “I would like to be very sure that they understand the implications of this kind of bet.” BNP Paribas SA, the European Union’s biggest bank, and ING Groep NV, the largest lender in the Netherlands, are among banks that are in the process of expanding restrictions on fossil-fuel clients. The companies, which are both currently fighting lawsuits brought by climate nonprofits, dropped about 10 places in the ranking of oil, gas and coal lenders over the past two years. Wall Street’s largest banks, meanwhile, remain among the absolute biggest lenders to the fossil-fuel industry. Last year, such loans were dominated by Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to Bloomberg data.

Democrats slam U.S. Chamber over credit card fee lawsuit — Democratic senators Monday chastised the U.S. Chamber of Commerce over the group's lawsuit against the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's credit card late fee rule, arguing that the lawsuit is precisely the kind of suit that the Chamber itself has opposed. Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island sent a letter to the U.S. Chamber Monday demanding information about its lawsuit and denouncing the business group's defense of existing credit card late fees, which the lawmakers called exploitative. "The Chamber's decision to sue the CFPB represents exactly the type of 'frivolous litigation' that your organization claims to oppose," wrote the senators. "The Chamber is again doing the dirty work of its big bank members, such as JPMorgan, Citi, and Bank of America, who are notorious for ripping off Americans with credit card late fees."The CFPB finalized the credit card late fee cap in March after its research found issuers made hefty sums on charging customers penalties for late payments, which the lawmakers said in some cases are only late by a matter of hours. The agency estimated credit card issuers charged cardholders $14.5 billion in late fees in 2022. The CFPB's proposed rule will compel companies to give grounds for late fees over $8 — an amount it believes sufficient to cover issuer costs associated with late payments — unless banks can demonstrate that the costs associated with late payments are higher. The rule also disallows credit companies from automatically inflating such fees year over year, and specifies that late fees must be no more than a quarter of the required minimum payment per payment cycle.The Chamber of Commerce sued the CFPB just days after the final rule was issued attempting to halt the rule on grounds the agency insufficiently justified its decision to cap fees at $8. The group claims the agency's lack of justification rises to the level of arbitrary and capricious, a legal standardroutinely used to level procedural challenges to agency rules business groups oppose. The senators' letter comes a week after their colleague across the aisle leveled their own challenges to the rule. Senator Tim Scott, R-S.C., introduced a resolution earlier in the month that would overturn the CFPB rule utilizing the Congressional Review Act, a law that allows Congress to overturn agency rulemaking within 90 days of finalization.

CFPB makes structural changes while expanding authority over nonbanks - Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra announced that its supervision and enforcement offices will operate as separate, stand-alone divisions within the bureau.Chopra told the CFPB's staff in February that he had dissolved the Office of Supervision, Enforcement and Fair Lending and also had eliminated the associate director job that had been held by former acting CFPB Director Dave Uejio. The move was made public Tuesday as part of aprocedural rule change in which the CFPB updated how the agency designates nonbanks for supervision. The upshot of the changes is that Enforcement Director Eric Halperin and Supervision Director Lorelei Salas now report directly to Chopra without the layer of another senior official in-between. "We will be transitioning the administrative structure of [the Office of Supervision, Enforcement and Fair Lending] into two separate operating units," Chopra wrote in an email to staff. He announced in February that Uejio had accepted a job at the Federal Housing Finance Agency and that his position as associate director would be eliminated. "A flatter organization structure will allow us to be more agile in our response to emerging risks and will facilitate faster decision-making," Chopra wrote in the email. "In the early days of the CFPB, there was concern that Supervision and Enforcement needed to be in a single division in order to foster robust collaboration and coordination on deploying our tools."As part of the changes, a half-dozen employees were reassigned to other positions. David Bleicken, the CFPB's deputy associate director of the now-defunct Office of Supervision, Enforcement and Fair Lending, remains in a senior role at the bureau. Previously, the CFPB's fair lending office was stripped of its enforcement powers in 2018 under former CFPB Director Mick Mulvaney, and that unit, the Office of Fair Lending and Equal Opportunity, has been under the CFPB director's purview ever since. The CFPB has not updated its organization chart since January. Salas is still listed as acting assistant director of the Office of Supervision Examinations and assistant director of the Office of Supervision Policy. She is now director of supervision, a spokesman said.The organization changes could have an outsize impact on nonbanks that are designated as risky and, therefore, subject to supervision. Because of the elimination of the associate director job, the CFPB made changes to reflect that the new supervision director is now the "initiating official" in supervisory designation proceedings, as well as in so-called contested proceedings. The update was necessary to transfer the former associate director's supervision-related functions to the supervision director.

New details on rush of Home Loan bank borrowings at three failed banks Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank increased their outstanding borrowings from the Federal Home Loan Bank System by more than a third each shortly before failing, according to the Government Accountability Office.The increase in borrowings is the subject of a 27-page GAO report issued last week that examines the role of the Federal Home Loan banks in providing liquidity to their members during the banking crisis in the spring of 2023. The report provides a granular take on where money was going to the failed banks in the ninth inning of their existence as each sought to stem massive outflows from depositors. The GAO found that the three banks borrowed substantially more from the Home Loan Bank System than a group of their peers that included 16 commercial banks.The report is the first in a series in which the GAO will look at broader issues related to the Home Loan Bank System. The private network of 11 regional, cooperative banks was created in 1932 after the Great Depression to serve as a source of funding for thrifts originating mortgages. The report was requested by House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., and the panel's ranking Democrat, Rep. Maxine Waters of California."GAO found the FHLBs of New York and San Francisco provided significant levels of advances to these banks compared to others, and that Signature Bank used FHLB advances to offset liquidity gaps it experienced related to crypto-related deposits," Waters said last week in a press release. "Meanwhile, SVB was unable to reposition collateral quickly enough from its FHLB to the Fed's discount window to access emergency liquidity."Starting on March 1, 2023, SVB increased its borrowings by 50% to $30 billion and then failed a week later. Signature's borrowings rose 37% to $11.2 billion in the first two weeks of March before it failed that same month. And First Republic's borrowings jumped 45% to $28.1 billion in the first two weeks of March before it failed in May, the GAO report found. The GAO looked at the communication and coordination of the Home Loan banks with the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Federal Reserve System — the failed banks' primary federal regulators — and the repayment of the failed banks' outstanding loans, known as advances, to the system. "One of the main areas of focus is: Are the Federal Home Loan banks managing their relationships and their counterparty risk with institutions as they begin to fail, and do they have the right agreements and oversight in place with the Fed and others?" said Jim Parrott, co-owner of Parrott Ryan Advisors and a nonresident fellow at the Urban Institute. "When everything's going 90 miles an hour, as an institution begins to take on water, are all of the relevant regulators and others who are in some sense indirectly responsible for taxpayer risks … coordinating?" The GAO said that SVB failed before the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco was able to request additional supervisory information from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. The New York and San Francisco Home Loan banks both were able to communicate with the FDIC about Signature and First Republic as those banks were declining, the GAO said.

BankThink: Why private capital should be allowed to provide liquidity to Ginnie Mae servicers | American Banker --Servicers of Ginnie Mae mortgages have been under the regulatory microscope, with concerns about their liquidity attracting significant attention, including from the Financial Stability Oversight Council. Yet the discussion overlooks how the federal government itself directly contributes to this liquidity risk. One simple solution is for the government to remove the barriers it has created, to allow private capital to provide the needed liquidity.Servicers play a pivotal role in the intricate web of mortgage financing, far beyond mere payment collection. For mortgages pooled in Ginnie Mae or GSE mortgage-backed securities, servicers must advance missed mortgage payments to MBS holders and pay taxing authorities and hazard insurers if escrow funds are short. If a borrower doesn't make these payments, servicers must maintain sufficient liquidity (cash) to make these payments. Such servicing advances are ultimately reimbursed by the GSEs or by the government loan guarantor, such as the Federal Housing Administration, the Department of Veterans Affairs or the Department of Agriculture.Periods of economic stress, which can cause income disruption and disproportionately affect borrowers under the government programs financed by Ginnie Mae, can cause liquidity strain for Ginnie Mae servicers at exactly the time borrowers are most reliant on these companies for assistance to help keep them in their homes. Moreover, the combination of higher delinquency rates, longer time frames for servicers to advance funds, and slower and less predictable reimbursement of servicing advances mean that Ginnie Mae MBS pose greater liquidity risk for servicers than those in GSE MBS.These key differences between Ginnie Mae and GSE servicing have been exacerbated as public policy interventions have extended delinquency resolution time frames, in turn increasing the need for servicer advances. While these changes are intended to benefit borrowers, the effect is that the liquidity needed to make servicing advances on behalf of delinquent borrowers is greater now than in past decades.Long-term solutions to reducing servicer liquidity risk require consideration of how the government programs treat mortgage delinquency. Today, borrowers are given many more months (or years) to resolve their delinquency than in the past. Long-term reforms could put FHA, VA and USDA on par with the conventional loan market and reduce the extent to which mortgage servicers must finance these extensive borrower recovery (or failure) timelines.But, such structural reforms to the government loss mitigation programs would require a long-term effort and the market needs immediate approaches to address the cash flow mismatch that has put substantially greater liquidity pressures on some servicers. Facilitating greater private financing is a more efficient route to improving market liquidity. Specifically, Ginnie Mae today can update its guidance and supplement its contracts in a way that would make it easier for private capital to play a greater role in financing servicing operations.Independent mortgage banks, or IMBs, that service Ginnie Mae loans face unique liquidity challenges, yet efforts to secure private sector financing are stymied because of the manner in which Ginnie Mae asserts its ownership interest in servicing advance reimbursements in the event a servicer fails. This means that FHA, VA and USDA reimbursements that would normally repay the loan servicer for the advances would instead be paid to and retained by Ginnie Mae. As a result, banks and other potential sources of private capital limit or avoid what they consider unsecured lending to IMBs for servicing advances, and servicers must find other ways to finance these advances. In certain market environments this is difficult and could cause servicer failures. The irony, of course, is that these advances simply intermediate between two federal obligations — the Ginnie guarantee to investors and the FHA, VA and USDA guarantee to the lender.

Freddie Mac would buy home equity loans under FHFA proposal -An influential government-related mortgage investor active in the first-lien market could become a purchaser of some home-equity loans under a concept its regulator put forth late Tuesday.Freddie Mac would actively buy some closed-end second liens if it holds the first mortgage under a proposal the Federal Housing Finance Agency announced in line with its pre-approval rule for new products. The proposal is a new take on something Freddie dabbled in decades ago, though in the prior instance such loan purchases came to a nonmaterial amount. This time around, the loans would be positioned as an alternative to cash-out refinances that have become uneconomic for the many older loans originated at lower-than-current-market rates."The proposed activity is intended to provide homeowners with a cost-effective alternative for accessing the equity in their homes," said FHFA Director Sandra Thompson in a news release.It also could have synergies with housing programs like Freddie's Affordable Seconds. The enterprise has relied on other entities to fund the second liens used to help expand homeownership options for borrowers and the new product could broaden its reach.Stakeholders will have 30 days to comment on the proposal. The FHFA will decide whether to move forward with the proposal within the subsequent 30 days, with the pending federal election in November likely adding some urgency for quick decision-making on the issue.The concept outlined addresses a specific need inherent in the composition of the current market but how receptive the mortgage industry will be to it may depend on some yet-to-be specified details."I think it's an interesting point in time where cash-out refinances don't pencil out from the consumer perspective," said Pete Mills, senior vice president of residential policy and member engagement at the Mortgage Bankers Association. The extent to which it addresses that challenge may depend on what Freddie Mac will offer for the second lien it buys and what any associated loan-level pricing adjustments are like, something the comment period may shape."We haven't seen pricing or LLPA grids, or anything like that, so it's a little early to tell, but I guess the important thing here is that's sort of the point of the new activity process," Mills said.How depositories respond to the concept remains to be seen. To a degree, closed-end seconds compete with HELOCs, but generally holding the former in portfolio is not attractive to banks, for whom lines of credit are a better match with their deposits. Some nonbanks may sell closed-end seconds to the private secondary market but it's considered a limited market.

Mortgage rates top 7 percent for first time in 2024 -- Mortgage rates topped 7 percent for the first time this year, according to data released Friday by Freddie Mac. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.1 percent this week, up from 6.88 percent the week before. “As rates trend higher, potential homebuyers are deciding whether to buy before rates rise even more or hold off in hopes of decreases later in the year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement. “Last week, purchase applications rose modestly, but it remains unclear how many homebuyers can withstand increasing rates in the future,” Khater added. Sales of existing homes fell 4.3 percent last month to an annual rate of 4.19 million, while home prices rose 4.8 percent to $393,500, according to data also released Friday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, blamed persistently high rates for relatively low home sales.“Though rebounding from cyclical lows, home sales are stuck because interest rates have not made any major moves,” Yun said in a statement. “There are nearly six million more jobs now compared to pre-COVID highs, which suggests more aspiring home buyers exist in the market.” Mortgage rates last sat above 7 percent in early December, after climbing to nearly 8 percent in late October. Rates ticked up throughout 2022 and 2023 alongside the Federal Reserve’s repeated interest rate hikes. The central bank raised rates to their current two-decade high in an effort to tame inflation, which had skyrocketed to a 40-year high by mid-2022. Inflation has since eased significantly, prompting the Fed to halt its rate hikes and feeding hopes of potential rate cuts this year. However, stubborn inflation and a persistently strong labor market have cooled expectations of rate cuts in the near term, with traders now largely not expecting any cuts until September.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey: Mortgage applications increased 3.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 12, 2024.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.5 percent from the previous week and was 11 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 10 percent lower than the same week one year ago.“Rates increased for the second consecutive week, driven by incoming data indicating that the economy remains strong and inflation is proving tougher to bring down. Mortgage rates increased across the board, with the 30-year fixed rate at 7.13 percent – reaching its highest level since December 2023,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite these higher rates, application activity picked up, possibly as some borrowers decided to act in case rates continue to rise. Purchase applications drove most of the increase, but remain at low levels of around 10 percent behind last year’s pace. Refinance applications increased very slightly, driven by a 3 percent gain in conventional applications.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 7.13 percent from 7.01 percent, with points increasing to 0.65 from 0.59 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 10% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

After Months of Relative Calm, Rates are Starting to Look Panicked Again - In 2023, there were multiple examples of mortgage rates moving up by roughly half a percent in a relatively short amount of time (1-3 weeks). Since the big shift in November, we've only seen one similar example and it was more of a technicality (a sharp drop in rates followed by a correction in early Feb), until today. Rates were already on the run toward higher levels at a fairly abrupt pace last week. The culprit was economic data, starting with the strong jobs report on April 5th and the far more troubling inflation data last Wednesday. Today's Retail Sales report was the icing on this unpleasant data cake. To be clear, when it comes to Retail Sales, the data is actually very pleasant for the economy. Unfortunately, what's good for economic growth is often bad for rates and that's doubly true at the moment when the market is waiting for more concrete evidence that the Fed's tight monetary policy is restricting growth. In other, simpler words, this data does not line up with the notion of Fed rate cuts in the near term. It also had an immediate negative impact on the rest of the bond market, including the bonds that most directly dictate mortgage rates. The average lender is now back into the mid 7s for a top tier, conventional 30yr fixed scenario.

Housing April 15th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.6% Week-over-week, Up 29.6% Year-over-year -Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.6% week-over-week. Inventory bottomed in mid-February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, and inventory is now up 5.6% from the February bottom.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of April 12th, inventory was at 526 thousand (7-day average), compared to 513 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up almost double from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 29.6% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 24.6%), and down 38.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 38.7%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March - From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Descended 4.3% in March Existing-home sales slipped in March, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales slid in the Midwest, South and West, but rose in the Northeast for the first time since November 2023. Year-over-year, sales decreased in all regions.Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – receded 4.3% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.19 million in March. Year-over-year, sales waned 3.7% (down from 4.35 million in March 2023)....Total housing inventory registered at the end of March was 1.11 million units, up 4.7% from February and 14.4% from one year ago (970,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 2.9 months in February and 2.7 months in March 2023.This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994. Sales in March (4.19 million SAAR) were down 4.3% from the previous month and were 3.7% below the March 2023 sales rate. The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.11 million in March from 1.06 million the previous month. Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.Inventory was up 14.4% year-over-year (blue) in March compared to March 2023. Months of supply (red) increased to 3.2 months in March from 2.9 months the previous month.This was at the consensus forecast. I'll have more later.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March; Median House Prices Increased 4.8% Year-over-Year -Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.19 million SAAR in March Excerpt: The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024. Sales declined 3.7% year-over-year compared to March 2023. This was the thirty-first consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. There is much more in the article.

Home Sales Clobbered by Mortgage Rates. New Listings & Active Listings Surge. Most Price Reductions for any March in Years by Wolf Richter - Sales of existing homes always jump from February to March. And closed sales rose this March as well but not nearly as much as they normally rise in March, and year-over-year they were down again, and month-to-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, sales also fell. Actual sales, not seasonally adjusted, rose to 324,000 homes in March, according to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) today. This was down by 9.7% from March 2023 and by 28.9% from March 2022: The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales fell by 4.3% in March from February, to an annual rate of 4.19 million sales. Down from March in prior years (from the prepandemic Marches in bold): March 2023: -3.7% March 2022: -26.4% March 2021: -30.6% March 2019: -19.9% March 2018: -24.0%. Home sales remain at crushed levels as the entire housing market has shrunk by about 20% because homeowners with 3% mortgages are neither buying nor selling, and have vanished as demand, and have vanished in equal number as supply, and due to them, sales are down and supply is down in equal measure, and so churn is down. Realtors are fretting about the drop in market volume because they make commissions off the churn. And for Realtors, this situation is really bad. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in October, November, and December last year had been the lowest since the worst months of the Housing Bust in 2010: (historic data via YCharts): Active listings rose to the highest level since before the pandemic, to 695,000 active listings in March, according to data from Realtor.com. Compared to March in prior years:

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.321 million Annual Rate in March From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Privately‐owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,321,000. This is 14.7 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,549,000 and is 4.3 percent below the March 2023 rate of 1,380,000. Single‐family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,022,000; this is 12.4 percent below the revised February figure of 1,167,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 290,000. Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,458,000. This is 4.3 percent below the revised February rate of 1,523,000, but is 1.5 percent above the March 2023 rate of 1,437,000. Single‐family authorizations in March were at a rate of 973,000; this is 5.7 percent below the revised February figure of 1,032,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 433,000 in March. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased in March compared to February. Multi-family starts were down 44.3% year-over-year in March. Single-family starts (red) decreased in March and were up 21.2% year-over-year.The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.Total housing starts in March were well below expectations, however, starts in January and February were revised up.

Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in March; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in March were well below expectations, however, starts in January and February were revised up.The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red). Total starts were down 4.3% in March compared to March 2023. Starts were down year-over-year (YoY) in March following 4 consecutive months with starts up YoY. The YoY decline is due to the sharp decrease in multi-family starts.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Unchanged in April - The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 51, unchanged from 51 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment Unchanged in April: Builder sentiment was flat in April as mortgage rates remained close to 7% over the past month and the latest inflation data failed to show improvement during the first quarter of 2024. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 51 in April, unchanged from March, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. This breaks a four-month period of gains for the index, which nonetheless remains above the key breakeven point of 50. “With many frustrated buyers back on the fence waiting for interest rates to fall, policymakers can help ease affordability challenges by reducing inefficient regulatory rules that raise housing costs and limit supply,” said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a custom home builder from Wichita, Kan. “April’s flat reading suggests potential for demand growth is there, but buyers are hesitating until they can better gauge where interest rates are headed,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “With the markets now adjusting to rates being somewhat higher due to recent inflation readings, we still anticipate the Federal Reserve will announce future rate cuts later this year, and that mortgage rates will moderate in the second half of 2024.” The April HMI survey also revealed that 22% of builders cut home prices this month, down from 24% in March and 36% in December 2023. However, the average price reduction in April held steady at 6% for the 10th straight month. Meanwhile, the use of sales incentives ticked down to 57% in April from a reading of 60% in March.... The HMI index charting current sales conditions in April increased one point to 57 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers also edged one point higher to 35. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 60. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased four points to 63, the Midwest gained five points to 46, the South rose one point to 51 and the West registered a four-point gain to 47.This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was at the consensus forecast.

Retail Sales Increased 0.7% in March --On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.7% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.0 percent from March 2023. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.6 billion, up 0.7 percent from the previous month, and up 4.0 percent above March 2023. ... The January 2024 to February 2024 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.9 percent.This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.6% in March.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.4% on a YoY basis.The increase in sales in March was above expectations, and, sales in January and February were revised up.

March retail sales blew past expectations - Retail sales in March surpassed expectations, according to new numbers released by the Commerce Department on Monday.The latest estimates from the Commerce Department show that retail sales in March increased by 0.7 percent — which is more than double the consensus estimates of a 0.3 percent increase for last month. While it surpassed expectations for March, the rise is slightly below February’s 0.9 percent jump in retail sales.The department revised February’s bump in retail sales from 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent, according to the estimate released Monday. The overall increase in retail sales comes after sales fell by 1.1 percent in January.The department said total sales from January to March were up 2.1 percent from the same period last year.The boost in retail sales suggests that Americans were not discouraged from spending despite an uptick in inflation.The latest retail sales numbers came just a week after the new Labor Department data showed inflation ticking higher in March. The consumer price index (CPI) — a popular measure of inflation — rose 0.4 percent last month and 3.5 percent annually.This followed a trend of rising inflation despite inflation being down overall from its 2022 peak.

LA Port Traffic Increased Year-over-year in March - Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 1.0% in March compared to the rolling 12 months ending in February. Outbound traffic increased 0.7% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 14% YoY in March, and exports were up 8% YoY. In general, it appears port traffic is returning to the pre-pandemic patterns.

Industrial Production Increased 0.4% in March -From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in March but declined at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter. Manufacturing output increased 0.5 percent in March, boosted in part by a gain of 3.1 percent in motor vehicles and parts; factory output excluding motor vehicles and parts moved up 0.3 percent. The index for mining fell 1.4 percent, and the index for utilities gained 2 percent. At 102.7 percent of its 2017 average, total industrial production in March was unchanged compared with its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.4 percent in March, a rate that is 1.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization at 78.4% is 1.2% below the average from 1972 to 2022. This was below consensus expectations. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased to 102.7. This is above the pre-pandemic level. Industrial production was at consensus expectations.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Unchanged at 212,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending April 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000, unchanged from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 211,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,500, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 214,500.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were lower than the consensus forecast.

Google fires employees who protested Israel contract - Google fired 28 employees Wednesday who protested the tech giant’s cloud computing contract with the Israeli government. Protesters staged sit-ins Tuesday at two Google offices — New York City and Sunnyvale, Calif. — in protest of the $1.2 billion contract that the company shares with Amazon to provide cloud computing services to Israel. Nine people were arrested. “A small number of employee protesters entered and disrupted a few of our locations,” a Google spokesperson said in a statement. “Physically impeding other employees’ work and preventing them from accessing our facilities is a clear violation of our policies, and completely unacceptable behavior.” “After refusing multiple requests to leave the premises, law enforcement was engaged to remove them to ensure office safety,” the statement continued. “We have so far concluded individual investigations that resulted in the termination of employment for 28 employees, and will continue to investigate and take action as needed.” No Tech for Apartheid, the activist group that organized Tuesday’s protests, called the firings a “flagrant act of retaliation.” “This evening, Google indiscriminately fired over two dozen workers, including those among us who did not directly participate in yesterday’s historic, bicoastal 10-hour sit-in protests,” the group said in a statement Wednesday. “This flagrant act of retaliation is a clear indication that Google values its $1.2 billion contract with the genocidal Israeli government and military more than its own workers,” it added. The contract, known as Project Nimbus, has faced backlash from workers and activists since it was initially signed in 2021. However, objections to the cloud computing agreement have escalated amid Israel’s ongoing military campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas’s Oct. 7 surprise attack. Google emphasized Wednesday that it “supports numerous governments around the world” with its cloud computing services and that its work with the Israeli government “is not directed at highly sensitive, classified, or military workloads relevant to weapons or intelligence services.” “We have been very clear that the Nimbus contract is for workloads running on our commercial cloud by Israeli government ministries, who agree to comply with our Terms of Service and Acceptable Use Policy,” the Google spokesperson said. However, Time reported last week that Google is providing cloud computing services to the Israeli Ministry of Defense.

Starbucks Seeks Supreme Court Protection From Being Ordered to Rehire Baristas Who Say They Were Fired for Union-Promoting Activities -- What factors must a court consider when the National Labor Relations Board requests an order requiring an employer to rehire terminated workers before the completion of unfair labor practice proceedings? That’s the central question that the Supreme Court will consider on April 23, 2024, during oral arguments in the Starbucks Corp. v. McKinney case. The global coffee shop chain is challenging the NLRB, the federal agency responsible for enforcing U.S. workers’ rights to organize, saying that the agency used the more labor-friendly of two available standards when it asked a federal court to order the company to reinstate workers at a Memphis, Tennessee, store who lost their jobs in 2022 amid a nationwide unionizing campaign. The Conversation U.S. asked Texas A&M law professor Michael Z. Green to explain what’s behind this case and how the court’s eventual decision, expected by the end of June, could affect the right to organize unions in the United States. Seven baristas who were attempting to organize a union at a Starbucks shop in Memphis, Tennessee, were fired in February 2022. Starbucks justified their dismissal by asserting that the employees, sometimes called the “Memphis 7,” had broken company rules by reopening their store after closing time and inviting people who weren’t employees, including a television crew, to go inside.In June of that year, the shop became one of more than 400 Starbucks locations since 2021 that have voted in favor of joining Workers United, an affiliate of the Service Employees International Union.While a complaint over the mass dismissal was pending with the NLRB, Kathleen McKinney, the NLRB director for the region that includes Memphis, sought an injunction in a federal district court to force Starbucks to give the Memphis 7 their jobs back while the case proceeded. The company must “cease its unlawful conduct immediately so that all Starbucks workers can fully and freely exercise their labor rights,” she said. By August 2022, a judge had ordered Starbucks to do that, and in September the baristas were back on staff.Although the seven baristas got their jobs back and the union vote prevailed, the company has appealed the case all the way to the Supreme Court because it believes the court should not have ordered the company to reinstate the workers while NLRB proceedings were still pending.But the NLRB argues, and the lower courts agreed, that the terminations chilled further union activities at the store even after the election.Nevertheless, Starbucks argues that firing the seven workers had no effect because employees at that coffeehouse still voted in favor of unionization.The justices will have to decide which approach federal courts should use when they consider requests for injunctions like this one.Currently, five appeals courts, including the one where this case arose, base their decision on a two-part test. First, the courts determine whether there is “reasonable cause” to believe an unfair labor practice has occurred. Second, they determine whether granting an injunction would be “just and proper.” Four other appeals courts use a four-part test.

More Economic Effects of Our Ongoing Covid Pandemic (with Cognitive Dysfunction and the Labor Market) by Lambert Strether --Previously in this series of round-ups, we looked at Covid and global GDP, as well as GDP in various counties; at the effects of interventions, pharmaceutical and not; and at “belief scarring,” a form of hysteresis. That was January; in February, we looked at labor force participation, as well as the quality of the labor force, positing that cognitive dysfunction from (often repeated) Covid infection degraded skills. This month we will repeat and expand on these themes, first looking at the so-called post-Covid economic recovery, then at Covid and the labor market and labor force participation, and finally at Covid and cognitive dysfunction in skilled workers, especially pilots. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorites has released (April 2024) “Chart Book: Tracking the Recovery From the Pandemic Recession.” For those who remember the brutal “recovery” frpm the Great Financial Crisis under Obama:Real gross domestic product (GDP) early in the pandemic fell abruptly to 9 percent below its level at the start of the recession — a much steeper decline than the nearly 4 percent drop in the deepest part of the Great Recession. But the recovery and relief legislation enacted in March and April 2020, plus the relaxation in May of some restrictions on economic activity, led to a sharp (though partial) bounce-back in GDP in the third quarter of 2020. Subsequent relief and recovery legislation enacted in December 2020 and early 2021 gave the recovery an added boost.As a result, real (inflation-adjusted) GDP surpassed its pre-recession peak in the first quarter of 2021, less than a year after the trough of the recession. GDP rose above the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) February 2024 estimate of potential GDP — the high-employment, maximum sustainable level of GDP — from the third quarter of 2021 through the first quarter of 2022 and then again in the third and fourth quarters of 2023. In the Great Recession, in contrast, GDP didn’t surpass its previous peak for two years and the actual-potential gap did not close until the third quarter of 2018, more than eight years after the recession ended.Here is a handy chart: And regarding the labor market (of which more shortly): Like GDP and payroll employment, the official measures of household employment and unemployment… improved faster than initial projections. This is especially impressive because, as discussed below, some of these measures failed to fully capture the amount of labor market slack — that is, excess joblessness and underemployment — in the depths of the recession and early in the recovery.Employment normally recovers more slowly than output after recessions, usually because employers are uncertain about how permanent an increase in demand for goods and services will be and they have an underutilized existing workforce they can use initially to meet an increase in demand. Until recently, however, labor markets in the current recovery were tight, with demand for workers growing faster than the supply. This is what the economists are saying, of course. Your mileage may vary — and apparently that’s true for a lot of people. The Brookings Institution has published (March 2024) “The US labor market post-COVID: What’s changed, and what hasn’t?“, which is a report from a conference held in January with about 40 leading labor economists. There’s a lot here, and I picked out two nuggets. On wages:After decades of growing wage inequality, the post-pandemic period has seen a substantial decrease in earnings dispersion between the 10th and 90th percentiles. However, participants noted that this reduced inequality is confined to those at the very bottom: Workers at the median of the earnings distribution, who have also been losing ground relative to the top decile for decades, have not seen gains post-pandemic.Participants noted that, in typical business cycles, low-wage employees experience higher earnings when the economy is strong because they work more hours, not because their wages increase, making the wage compression during the COVID episode atypical….Weak wage growth across the board despite a tight post-pandemic job market puzzled many in the room. Ball hypothesized that goods whose prices increased due to supply shocks may have fed into inflation without putting upward pressure on wages. Some reiterated that the real wage declines could be partially explained by the non-pecuniary benefits offered to workers through remote work. Others pointed out that the labor market may not be as tight as suggested by recent increases in payroll growth because a surge in immigration has increased labor supply in the past two years.And speaking of immigration, this chart from a presentation in the second session:

How the American Workforce Got Hooked on Adderall Over the last few years, users of the popular ADHD drug Adderall have been frustrated by regular How did a significant chunk of the labor force -- from tech workers to Wall Streeters -- begin using the drug as an aid for their work and everyday lives? Photographer: JB Reed/Bloomberg shortages in getting their prescriptions filled. Various regulatory and supply chain factors have contributed to the inability of producers to keep up with demand. But this raises the question: why is there so much demand in the first place? How did a significant chunk of the labor force -- from tech workers to Wall Streeters -- begin using the drug as an aid for their work and everyday lives? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Danielle Carr, an assistant professor at the Institute for Society and Genetics at UCLA, who studies the history of politics of neuroscience and psycholoɒy. We discuss the history of this medicine and related medicines, what it does for the people who take it, and how market forces opened the drug up to almost anyone.

DeSantis signs bill banning local heat protections for workers - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has signed legislation barring local and municipal governments from requiring their own heat protections for workers. The law, House Bill 433, blocks local governments from several activities, including setting a minimum wage higher than that of the state or federal governments. It also restricts local authorities from “[r]equiring an employer, including an employer contracting with the political subdivision, to meet or provide heat exposure requirements not otherwise required under state or federal law” or “[g]iving preference, or considering or seeking information, in a competitive solicitation to an employer based on the employer’s heat exposure requirements,” according to a summary released by the Legislature. Proponents of the bill called it necessary for the Sunshine State’s economy. “Without continuity in business, businesses will not come to Florida. People will stop coming to Florida,” state Rep. Bob Rommel (R) said during floor debate on the bill. An estimated 2 million Floridians work outdoors. The bill’s passage comes after the state’s most populous county, Miami-Dade, considered local heat protection rules that would have been among the most stringent in the country. That proposal would have required employers to provide shade, water and 10-minute breaks to workers every two hours on days over a certain heat threshold. However, county commissioners rejected the proposal in November over concerns it would hamstring businesses. Environmental and labor groups blasted the passage of the bill. “Instead of addressing the skyrocketing insurance crisis or protecting our workforce, the Governor chose to abandon millions of hard-working Floridians and leave our state even more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,” Sierra Club Florida Political Director Luigi Guadarrama said in a statement. “HB433 is an extremist law by Florida’s Republican-led Legislature and industry lobbyists in agriculture and construction who care more about their profits than the lives of the workers who make these profits possible,” said Oscar Londoño, co-executive director of WeCount, a labor organization that advocates on behalf of outdoor workers. “Instead of offering real solutions for working families, HB433 will endanger the health and lives of thousands of outdoor workers in our state.”\

Brink Of Unrest? Migrants "Flood" NYC City Hall In Protest Of Losing Luxury Hotel Rooms New York City could be on the cusp of social unrest as hundreds of migrants have flooded the grounds of City Hall in Lower Manhattan to protest the scaling down of their luxury hotel accommodations (funded by us, the taxpayers). The Babylon Bee's Ashley St. Clair posted on X a disturbing photo of migrants "flooding NYC City Hall to protest being moved to shelters instead of the luxury hotels." Migrants are now flooding NYC City Hall to protest being moved to shelters instead of the luxury hotels. pic.twitter.com/Cy5L16MDP2 Elon Musk responded with "Wow," while another X user posted a video of angry migrants surrounding the City Hall complex building. Security is beefed up as the situation remains tense. Hundreds of migrants are in NYC City Hall Park to protest against being moved to Shelters instead of the LUXURY HOTELS pic.twitter.com/86zLiWENCh The migrant protest comes one day after pro-Palestinian groups shuttered critical infrastructure nationwide across various metro areas of the US, including the Brooklyn Bridge.

Where Highly Educated Migrants Come From - Voters in India are getting set to head to the polls this weekend, in what has been dubbed the world’s biggest election.Nearly 1 billion people are eligible to determine whether Narendra Modi, leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will rule the country for a third consecutive term.Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports that,according to data from a Statista Consumer Insights survey, one of the major challenges facing the country right now is that of unemployment.This will be a major sticking point for younger voters. With often better opportunities abroad, the country is losing valuable talent. And it’s not alone, as OECD data reveals. In fact, in 2015/2016 - the latest year on record - 40 million highly educated migrants were living in OECD member countries. While skilled migrants are certainly welcomed by labor markets in most developed nations especially in times of falling birth rates, the migration of the educated can also have a detrimental effect on their home countries - often described as brain drain.As seen in the numbers, China and India had sent the most highly skilled migrants abroad as of the latest available date.Yet, compared to the size of their populations, the numbers are comparably low. Other major brain drain locations have lost many more talented workers in relative terms, for example the Philippines, Poland, Mexico and Russia.The Philippines have been known for supplying the world with health care professionals, especially nurses. Many of these highly skilled professionals emigrate to the U.S., forming the third-most important skilled labor emigration corridor of the OECD behind Mexican and Indian migration to the United States.

Tennessee judge set to decide whether a Nashville school shooter's journals are public records (AP) — Some of the writings of a former student who fatally shot three 9-year-old children and three adult staff members at a private Christian elementary school last year can be released to the public without compromising the investigation, a lawyer for police said in court Tuesday.The comments by attorney Lora Fox came on day one of a two-day hearing over whether records collected by police investigating the March 27, 2023, shooting at the Covenant School can be made public. Metro Nashville Police have said that an exception to the Tennessee Public Records Act allows them to keep the records private until their investigation is complete. On Tuesday, Fox maintained that position but said a subset of the records — the writings found in the shooter's car — “Metro believes can be released."However, an attorney representing the Covenant School argued that a different law forbidding the release of information, records, or plans related to school security should prevail. Construed broadly, the school safety exception could apply to all of the shooter's writings, Peter Klett argued, because releasing them could inspire copycats.“You do have individuals who could take the writings of the shooter and commit violence against the Covenant School or some other school. As a result, your honor, we believe that that presents a serious security threat to the Covenant School and other schools in this community and elsewhere," he said. Those seeking the immediate release of the records include news outlets, a gun rights group, a law enforcement nonprofit and Tennessee State Sen. Todd Gardenhire. They argue there is no meaningful criminal investigation underway since the shooter is dead, killed by police. It does not matter that the investigation is officially still open.“If there is an open investigation but not a contemplated criminal action, the records need to come out,” said attorney Nicholas Berry, who represents Star News Digital Media. “A theoretically possible criminal proceeding is not sufficient.”The shooter left behind at least 20 journals, a suicide note and a memoir, according to court filings. A few pages of one journal were leaked to a conservative commentator who posted them to social media in November. Part of the interest in the records stems from the fact that the shooter, who police say was “assigned female at birth,” may have identified as a transgender man.U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, of Missouri, is among those who have promoted a theory that the shooting was a hate crime against Christians. The delay in releasing the writings has fueled speculation — particularly in conservative circles — regarding what they might contain and conspiracy theories about why police won’t release them.Further complicating the issue, a group of Covenant School parents last week gained ownership rights to the shooter's writings. They have threatened in court filings to copyright them and sue anyone who publishes them. Further testimony about the copyright claims is expected to take place on Wednesday, when the hearing continues.

Ohio panel approves ban on youth transgender surgeries -- Gov. Mike DeWine in December vetoed a bill that would dually ban minors from gender-affirming care and transgender girls and women from playing on female sports teams in K-12 and college, after talking to families and concluding that healthcare decisions should be made by parents in consultation with medical experts, not by government.As a compromise, DeWine unveiled his own set of rules banning transgender surgeries for minors. Regardless, the legislature overrode the governor’s veto in a law that’s currently being challenged in court.Now, a panel of state lawmakers approved his rule banning minors from having gender surgeries, along party lines.Everyone who testified Monday opposed the rule, with many arguing that it conflicted with other laws, went beyond the scope of state authority and confused healthcare professionals about whether they’re allowed to treat transgender Ohioans.That’s dangerous, since transgender people experience a greater risk of suicide.

Effort for better air quality in CT schools gets bipartisan support -Bad air quality in schools is one of the top environmental public health risks in the U.S. and a state working group is pushing for passage of a bill this legislative session to continue addressing the issue in Connecticut. The proposal would require that at least 20% of school districts be inspected every year, until all buildings have been evaluated. If approved, the bill would also extend the working group until 2030.“These assessments and the focus on indoor air quality needs to happen statewide and all the schools that we have,” Sen. Julie Kushner, a Democrat from Danbury, and co-chair of the School Indoor Air Quality Working Group said.Poor air quality and ventilation has been found to impede learning and harm health. According to Kushner, issues with indoor air quality aren't in any one district, it’s throughout the state.It is not an easy issue to solve since the state has many older or unmaintained school buildings, she said.Members of the working group spoke at a press conference Tuesday to mark National Healthy Schools Day.“This is not a bill about air conditioning,” said Rep. Mitch Bolinsky, a Republican representing Newtown. “This is a bill about air quality, and the results of bad air quality on human beings.”“Because of the funds from the Governor, we have invested nearly $200 million over the past two years into mechanical means of fresh air — HVAC and system level fixes — to our school buildings, to ensure they will have clean and healthy air, which not only is good for health, of course, but also better for learning,” said working group co-chair Rep. Jennifer Leeper, a Democrat from Fairfield County.The proposal had unanimous committee approval and is waiting to be taken up in the Senate before advancing.

Zombie Tests: Is the SAT Back From the Dead? -When the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, higher education institutions throughout the United States started adopting a progressive standard of education that advocates had demanded for decades: they began dropping standardized tests such as the SAT and the ACT as requirements for admissions. As was the case with so many other pandemic-era societal adaptations—government economic relief that lowered poverty rates, a pause in student loan repayments, free vaccines, an end to public library late fees—this offered an opportunity for a grand experiment in promoting equality. The move to drop the tests can actually be traced to a time before the pandemic, but it was accelerated by students being unable to travel to testing sites during the lockdowns. Further, the mass racial justice uprising of summer 2020 pressured elites into embracing ideas rooted in equity. Many celebrated the spurning of tests as the right direction for institutions that have ensured the maintenance of white supremacist patriarchy since their inception. But as elite universities such as Yale, Harvard, and Caltech recently reneged on the promise of leveling the playing field by returning to test requirements, are those celebrations premature? Research has confirmed over and over that requiring students to take the SAT or ACT weeds out women, people of color, and other marginalized groups. Although the SAT has evolved significantly over the years, its origins in racist beliefs are telling. Black and Latino students routinely score lower on the SAT’s math section compared to whites and Asians. This is not evidence of a racial difference in educational ability and intelligence as Brigham might have liked to believe. Rather, it is evidence of racial bias in the test.There is a similar bias based on class. Wealthier students routinely dobetteron the test than low-income students. This is no surprise given thelucrative industry built on test preparation, helping students navigate the notoriously tricky test in exchange for hundreds or even thousands of dollars. The fact that SAT scores are used to determine many a student’s eligibility for scholarships further entrenches class bias.Indeed, because of the SAT’s racial and class bias, the Los Angeles Times reported in 2019 that officials at the University of California were convinced “that performance on the SAT and ACT was so strongly influenced by family income, parents’ education and race that using them for high-stakes admissions decisions was simply wrong.” Aside from GPA, public school educators have backed the idea of “Performance Based Assessments” (PBA) as a better alternative to the SAT. Such assessments measure the totality of students’ expertise, achievements, and ideas. They are, by design, complex and varied—just as human beings are—and are based on interaction and collaboration—just as society functions in real life. The SAT is largely a multiple-choice test. It is an individualistic assessment designed for an individualist mindset and is therefore an exceedingly narrow measure of a person. Aside from its essay section, each question has only one correct answer embedded in an array of wrong answers. There is no room for complex thinking and ideas. According to FairTest, “Using the SAT as the gatekeeper for higher education turns out to test one thing above all else: existing station in life.” Standardized tests, and the idea that universities may revert back to using them, are a source of undue stress on students and their families. Thankfully, thousands of universities and colleges remain test-free or test-optional. Ultimately, only a tiny sliver of the nation’s students are able to attend the institutions that steadfastly cling to elitist practices. If anything, the decision by some to insist on outdated racist, sexist, and classist standards is a further indication of how irrelevant they are to modern American society.

NYPD makes arrests at Columbia as protest encampment is removed - Officers with the New York Police Department (NYPD) were clad in riot gear Thursday during a pro-Palestinian demonstration at Columbia University, where protesters set up an encampment of dozens of tents on campus.Photos circulating on social media and various media outlets showed dozens of police officers in body armor and face shields lined up around Columbia University Thursday afternoon. Officers arrested dozens of demonstrators Thursday, The New York Times reported. NYPD declined to provide any details on the arrests as the situation is ongoing. Demonstrators set up an encampment of tents that went up Wednesday morning, prompting Columbia University President Minouche Shafik to authorize the NYPD to help remove the encampment “out of an abundance of caution.” “I have determined that the encampment and related disruptions pose a clear and present danger to the substantial functioning of the University,” Shafik wrote in a letter to the NYPD Thursday.She said the demonstrators were informed multiple times they are not permitted to occupy the space — the South Lawn of Columbia University’s Morningside Heights Campus — but have “refused” to disperse or comply with school administrators.“I regret that all of these attempts to resolve the situation were rejected by the students involved. As a result, NYPD officers are now on campus and the process of clearing the encampment is underway,” she said in an update Thursday.All university students involved in the demonstration were told they are suspended, Shafik added.“Students who are participating in the unauthorized encampment are suspended. We are continuing to identify them and will be sending out formal notifications,” a university spokesperson told The Hill.Among those suspended was Isra Hirsi, the daughter of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.). Hirsi is a student at Barnard College, which is connected to Columbia but has some independence.Independent presidential candidate Cornel West joined Thursday’s protests, according to multiple social media posts.In one video, West was seen shouting into a megaphone, “I stand here in solidarity with each and every one of you.”“Cause we are in solidarity with human suffering, especially when it is imposed by human beings and I’m taking about the indescribable genocide of our precious Palestinians in Gaza,” he continued.The protests come one day after House lawmakers with the Education and Workforce Committee grilled Columbia o fficials about their response to the rise in antisemitism witnessed at schools across the country following Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel.

NYPD arrests over 100 Columbia University students following congressional hearing - In a brutal state crackdown on pro-Palestinian protests on campuses, a horde of New York Police Department (NYPD) officers descended onto Columbia University’s campus in New York City on Thursday afternoon to arrest over 100 peaceful student protesters. It was the first time in over half a century that Columbia University allowed the NYPD onto the campus to arrest students. The police-state action, directed by Columbia President Dr. Minouche (Nemat) Shafik, came the day after she testified before a McCarthyite congressional hearing. It marks a new and dangerous stage in the attacks on democratic rights across the US and internationally, centered on the drive to suppress widespread opposition to the US-backed genocide in Gaza.According to a press release from Columbia Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) Thursday evening, over 120 students were arrested. The statement said that the lawn where the encampment took place was designated a “free speech zone” under Columbia’s latest policy on protests.The SJP statement explained:The Gaza Solidarity Encampment was established to pressure Columbia to divest all funds, including the endowment, from corporations that profit from Israeli apartheid, genocide and military occupation in Palestine. We demand they ensure further accountability with complete transparency for all Columbia’s financial investments. Columbia students erected the “Gaza Solidarity Encampment” on the South Lawn with 50 tents, beginning at 4 a.m. Wednesday morning, ahead of the House Committee’s hearing, which focused on Columbia University. The encampment was organized by Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP)—both of which were banned by the university last November—and Columbia University Apartheid Divest (CUAD). Hundreds of students and supporters had gathered on campus by the evening, amid growing threats by the administration of mass expulsions and arrests following President Shafik’s kowtowing appearance before far-right congressional representatives. As the International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE) analyzed yesterday:The hearing made clear that the goal of the US ruling class is nothing less than a purge of the faculty and student body at universities in order to completely subordinate higher education to the war machine. Everyone who dares voice opposition to US foreign policy is to be thrown out, blacklisted and made the public target of attacks by Zionists and far-right elements. Students manned the encampment through the night from Wednesday to Thursday, and protests continued to grow on Thursday. Early Thursday afternoon, Shafik made good on her promises. The university president sent a campus-wide email stating that she had ordered the NYPD “to begin clearing the encampment.” In a separate letter by Shafik to the NYPD, the president stated: All University students participating in the encampment have been informed they are suspended. At this time, the participants in the encampment are not authorized to be on University property and are trespassing. Student leaders of the campus occupation reported receiving emails Thursday morning stating they were suspended, including Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar’s daughter, Isra Hirsi. This follows a wave of student evictions and suspensions at New York City universities, including Columbia and New York University.

Rep. Ilhan Omar's Daughter, Isra Hirsi, Suspended From Barnard Over Protest - Hirsi said she was one of three students who were suspended. “I have never been reprimanded or received any disciplinary warnings,” she wrote on X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday. “I just received notice that I am 1 of 3 students suspended for standing in solidarity with Palestinians facing a genocide.” It is not clear how long Hirsi’s suspension will be. A Columbia spokesperson told HuffPost that students who participated in the “unauthorized encampment” were suspended. “We are continuing to identify them and will be sending out formal notifications,” the spokesperson added. Barnard said it does not comment on confidential student proceedings but directed HuffPost to to a statement the school published Thursday. “A number of Barnard Senior Staff also went to the lawn to ask Barnard students participating in the encampment to leave and to advise Barnard students that they would be subject to sanctions at Barnard if they did not leave the encampment,” read the statement. The news comes one day after the university’s president, Nemat “Minouche” Shafik, testified before Congress about student activism surrounding the Israel-Hamas war and the rise of antisemitism on campus. Omar was among the lawmakers who questioned Shafik and specifically asked about the safety of Palestinian and Muslim students on campus. Omar’s office did not immediately respond to HuffPost’s request for comment. In a letter sent to the deputy commissioner of the New York City Police Department on Thursday, Shafik said she’d authorized police to clear the encampment and remove more than 100 protesters. “I have determined that the encampment and related disruptions pose a clear and present danger to the substantial functioning of the University,” she wrote. “With great regret, we request the NYPD’s help to remove these individuals.”

Ocasio-Cortez, Tlaib criticize ‘appalling’ suspension of Omar’s daughter at Columbia -- Democratic Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.) and Rashida Tlaib (Mich.) slammed the suspension of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) daughter from college after she participated in a pro-Palestinian protest on campus.“From UM to Vanderbilt to USC to Columbia, students across our country are being retaliated against for using their constitutional rights to protest genocide. It’s appalling,” Tlaib added while sharing Isra Hirsi’s post to social platform X.Hirsi, Omar’s daughter, announced earlier that day in her post that she had been suspended from the university for “standing in solidarity with Palestinians facing a genocide.” “How does a student with no disciplinary record suddenly get to a suspension less than 24 hours after a nonviolent protest? What merits asymmetric crackdowns on Palestinian human rights protests,” Ocasio-Cortez said, also sharing Hirsi’s post. “i’m an organizer with CU Apartheid Divest @ColumbiaSJP, in my 3 years at @BarnardCollege i have never been reprimanded or received any disciplinary warnings,” Hirsi said in her post. “i just received notice that i am 1 of 3 students suspended for standing in solidarity with Palestinians facing a genocide,” Hirsi added.Columbia University noted Hirsi is a student at Barnard College, which is connected to Columbia but has some independence.Barnard did not comment on specifics Thursday, but pointed to an announcement from its senior staff saying Columbia and Barnard students “set up an unauthorized encampment” on Columbia’s South Lawn.Columbia made multiple requests that students participating in the protest leave the lawn before “a number of Barnard Senior Staff also went to the lawn to ask students participating in the encampment to leave,” according to the statement.Senior staff members also advised students they would face sanctions if they did not leave, in addition to written warnings they would receive interim suspension if they did not leave by Wednesday night, according to the school.

USC’s pro-Palestinian valedictorian won’t deliver speech, school says - The University of Southern California (USC) says its valedictorian won’t deliver a speech due to “substantial” security risks after she had links to pro-Palestinian sites on her social media. Provost Andrew Guzman released a statement Monday revoking Asna Tabassum’s ability to speak as valedictorian at her graduation ceremony. “The intensity of feelings, fueled by both social media and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, has grown to include many voices outside of USC and has escalated to the point of creating substantial risks relating to security and disruption at commencement. We cannot ignore the fact that similar risks have led to harassment and even violence at other campuses,” Guzman said. Tabassum got pushback after it was discovered she had links to pro-Palestinian sites on her social media that called for a one-state Palestine solution to the conflict in the Middle East. “After careful consideration, we have decided that our student valedictorian will not deliver a speech at commencement. While this is disappointing, tradition must give way to safety,” Guzman said, adding “this decision has nothing to do with freedom of speech. There is no free-speech entitlement to speak at a commencement. The issue here is how best to maintain campus security and safety, period.” Tabassum, however, isn’t convinced. “Because I am not aware of any specific threats against me or the university, because my request for the details underlying the university’s threat assessment has been denied, and because I am not being provided any increased safety to be able to speak at commencement, there remain serious doubts about whether USC’s decision to revoke my invitation to speak is made solely on the basis of safety,” she said in a statement, released through the Los Angeles branch of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR). CAIR said the school’s decision “empowers voices of hate, violates USC’s obligation to protect its students, and sends a terrible message to not only Muslim students at USC but all students who dare to express support for Palestinian humanity.”

New York College Suspends Professor "Energized" By Hamas Attack On Israel -A tenured professor is suspended throughout the rest of the semester after writing an essay celebrating Hamas’ attack on Israel.“McCarthyism is real. I’ve been relieved of teaching responsibilities,” Hobart and William Smith Colleges Professor Jodi Dean wrote Saturday on X. “Don’t stop talking about Palestine.”“The images from October 7 of paragliders evading Israeli air defenses were for many of us exhilarating,” the New York political scientist wrote the week prior in a blog post for Verso Books.She wrote further:Here were moments of freedom, that defeated Zionist expectations of submission to occupation and siege. In them, we witnessed seemingly impossible acts of bravery and defiance in the face of the certain knowledge of the devastation that would follow (that Israel practices asymmetric warfare and responds with disproportionate force is no secret).Who could not feel energized seeing oppressed people bulldozing the fences enclosing them, taking to the skies in escape, and flying freely through the air? Mark Gearan, the president of HWS Colleges, wrote, in a letter to the college community, “I deeply regret that as a result of Professor Dean’s comments, there now may be students on our campus who feel threatened in or outside the classroom.” “Not only am I in complete disagreement with Professor Dean, I find her comments repugnant, condemn them unequivocally, and want to make clear that these are her personal views and not those of our institution. One of my priorities as president is to build an intellectually vibrant and relationship-rich campus community,” President Gearan wrote. “The Colleges recognize and affirm the importance of free dialogue on ideas,” he wrote. “We have worked tirelessly to create an environment where we can discuss hard issues upon which we may disagree. But we can never and will never condone or praise violence, particularly when that violence is directed at individuals based on their religion, race or national origin.”The Chronicle of Higher Education reported that a follow up message from the provost, Sarah Kirk, explained that “the colleges are obligated under Title VI, a federal antidiscrimination law, to investigate potential ‘hostile environments’ involving national origin, shared ancestry, or other protected classes.’” Some defended the professor’s right to speak freely, even if disagreeing with her views, according to The Chronicle.Princeton University Professor Robert George “said that while he found the views Dean expressed in her article appalling, the colleges’ response seemed to conflict with their own endorsement of the American Association of University Professors’ principles on academic freedom, which are included in the faculty handbook.” “None of the unprotected categories of speech are relevant here,” the conservative professor said. “Jodi Dean did not threaten anybody. She did not harass anybody. She did not engage in defamation or accuse somebody of a crime falsely.”

Missouri Files Injunction To Block Biden's 'Illegal Student Loan Plan' While Lawsuit Plays Out --Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey announced on Wednesday that the state has filed for a temporary restraining order (TRO) to block the Biden administration's "illegal student loan plan," referred to by a coalition of states as "Plan B," which was implemented shortly after a previous attempt ("Plan A") was deemed illegal by the Supreme Court. "Plan B" aims to forgive student loans under different statutory provisions, but faces similar legal challenges as plan A - primarily surrounding the authority to enact such broad debt cancellation without clear congressional authorization. "From the moment the Supreme Court ruled in Biden v. Nebraska, President Biden made clear he would ‘stop at nothing’ to evade the decision," reads the TRO request. "Although the challenged rule, by its own text, was not supposed to take effect until this July, Defendants decided to start implementing it early and have already illegally cancelled billions of dollars in loans.""Defendants make almost no attempt to meaningfully distinguish their Plan B from their patently unlawful Plan A," the filing continues. Shortly after Biden announced the SAVE plan earlier this month, 11 states sued, arguing that it's yet another unlawful attempt to force Americans who incurred no college debt to shoulder the bill for those who did. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Plan B would add up to $750 billion to the US budget deficit. The plan itself has five major components. It would:

• Cancel accumulated interest for borrowers with balances higher than what they initially borrowed, capped at $20,000 for those in standard repayment and uncapped but restricted to individuals making less than $120,000 annually or couples making under $240,000 enrolled in an income-driven repayment (IDR) plan.
• Automatically cancel loans for borrowers in standard repayment who would be eligible for cancellation had they applied for programs such as Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) or the new IDR program, Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE).
• Automatically cancel loans for borrowers who have been repaying undergraduate loans for over 20 years or graduate loans for over 25 years.
• Cancel debt of those who attended low-financial-value programs, including those that failed accountability measures or were deemed ineligible for federal student aid programs.
• Forgive debt of borrowers who are “facing hardships” or are likely to default on their loan payments.

According to AG Bailey, the plan is a "brazen attempt to curry favor with some citizens by forcing others to shoulder their debts." Now, Missouri wants a judge to block Plan B until the lawsuit plays out.

US study finds antibiotics don't reduce duration, severity of cough - New research conducted at US primary and urgent care sites shows that antibiotics didn't provide any benefit for patients with a cough caused by an acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI). In fact, the findings, published yesterday in the Journal of General Internal Medicine, show that receipt of an antibiotic was associated with a small but significant increase in the duration of cough overall compared with those who didn't receive an antibiotic. Even for those patients with a confirmed bacterial infection, the time until illness resolution was the same whether or not the patients received an antibiotic. Patients who received an antibiotic also had a higher overall disease severity over the entire course of their illness compared with those who didn't. The study authors say the results of the Enhancing Antibiotic Stewardship in Primary Care (EAST-PC) study, which is the largest observational study to date on LRTIs in US primary and urgent care settings, are yet another indication that clinicians should be more prudent about using antibiotics for LRTIs.

Study finds high exposure to antibiotics among Australian infants - Analysis of data from a randomized clinical trial in Australia found that at least two thirds of children were exposed to antibiotics in the first 2 years of life, researchers reported today in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy. Looking at data from a subset of 1,201 infants enrolled in the BCG (Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine) for Allergy and Infection Reduction (MIS BAIR) trial, conducted in Melbourne, researchers from the Murdoch Children's Institute found that exposure to at least one course of antibiotics was 43% at age 1 and 67% at age 2, with the highest first antibiotic prescription rate from 9 to 18 months. In total, 26.5% of infants were inappropriately treated with antibiotics in the first year of life, with the largest proportion of inappropriate prescriptions (44%) occurring from 9 to 12 months. The most common diagnoses for which antibiotics were prescribed were respiratory tract infections from 0 to 6 months and otitis media (ear infection) from 6 to 12 months. The most frequently prescribed antibiotics prescribed were amoxicillin (59%) and cefalexin (7%). Multivariable regression analysis found that delivery by caesarean section (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1 to 1.9), birth in winter (aOR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.4), maternal antibiotic exposure during the last trimester (aOR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.3), cessation of breastfeeding by 6 months (aOR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1 to 2.0), and daycare attendance (aOR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.8) were the primary factors associated with antibiotic use from 0 to 12 months. The study authors note that the observed antibiotic exposure rate is higher than reported in most European countries. "Antibiotic exposure in the first 2 years of life in Australia is higher than in many other high-income countries," they wrote. "Future studies should focus on strategies to reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing."

After COVID, WHO defines disease spread ‘through air’ (Reuters) - The World Health Organization and around 500 experts have agreed for the first time what it means for a disease to spread through the air, in a bid to avoid the confusion early in the COVID-19 pandemic that some scientists have said cost lives. The Geneva-based U.N. health agency released a technical document on the topic on Thursday. It said it was the first step towards working out how to better prevent this kind of transmission, both for existing diseases like measles and for future pandemic threats. The document concludes that the descriptor "through the air" can be used for infectious diseases where the main type of transmission involves the pathogen travelling through the air or being suspended in the air, in line with other terms such as "waterborne" diseases, which are understood across disciplines and by the public. Almost 500 experts contributed to the definition, including physicists, public health professionals and engineers, many of whom disagreed bitterly over the topic in the past. Agencies have historically required high levels of proof before calling diseases airborne, which required very stringent containment measures; the new definition says the risk of exposure and severity of disease should also be considered. Past disagreements also centered around whether infectious particles were "droplets" or "aerosols" based on size, which the new definition moves away from. During the early days of COVID in 2020, around 200 aerosol scientists publicly complained that the WHO had failed to warn people of the risk that the virus could spread through the air. This led to an overemphasis on measures like handwashing to stop the virus, rather than focusing on ventilation, they said. By July 2020, the agency said there was "evidence emerging" of airborne spread, but its then chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan – who began the process to get a definition – later said the WHO should have been more forceful "much earlier". Her successor, Jeremy Farrar, said in an interview that the new definition was about more than COVID, but he added that at the beginning of the pandemic there was a lack of evidence available and experts including the WHO acted in "good faith". At that time, he was head of the Wellcome Trust charity and advised the British government on the pandemic. Farrar said getting the definition agreed among experts from all disciplines would allow discussions to begin about issues such as ventilation in many different settings, from hospitals to schools.

Nasal cells offer clues about why COVID-19 is typically milder in children - Severe outcomes from COVID-19 infections are much less common in children than in older adults, andnew research suggests that important differences in how the nasal cells of young and elderly people respond to the SARS-CoV-2 virus could explain why children typically experience milder COVID-19 symptoms. "Despite effective vaccines, age remains the single greatest risk factor for COVID-19 mortality," the authors write. "Children infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rarely develop severe disease, while the mortality in infected people over 85 years is currently as high as 1 in 10." The cell-culture study is published in Nature Microbiology and is based on nasal epithelial cells (NECs) collected from healthy participants, including children (0 to 11 years), younger adults (30 to 50 years), and the elderly (over 70 years). The study was conducted by culturing the nasal cells of each age-group, which resulted in a dataset of 139,598 cells. The researchers identified 24 distinct epithelial cell types. Healthy NECs had several age-related differences, including differences in cell-type proportions in healthy control cultures, with a higher abundance of basal or progenitor subtypes in adult versus pediatric cultures. In addition, NEC cultures from older adult donors were thicker than pediatric cultures. To see how the cultured cells reacted to COVID-19 infections, researchers infected cultures with an early-lineage SARS-CoV-2 isolate. Cells collected from children had high expression of interferon-stimulated genes and incomplete viral replication. Interferon is one of the first defenses fronted by the body when faced with an infection.

Study shows increase in serious alcohol-related complications early in pandemic A new study in JAMA Health Forum shows increases in serious alcohol-related complications in 4 of 18 COVID-19 pandemic months studied (through September 2021), and suggests that women aged 40 to 64 years experienced increases of 33.3% to 56.0% in serious alcohol complication episodes in 10 of the 18 months.The study is based on US national insurance claims data from March 2017 to September 2021, with researchers comparing prepandemic rates of serious alcohol-related problems to rates seen during pandemic months. A secondary outcome was the subset of episodes of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD).Overall, in 4 of the 18 pandemic months beginning in March 2020, rates of serious alcohol-related issues were statistically higher than expected, the authors said, by 0.4 to 0.8 episodes per 100,000 people.Of the serious complications, 54% to 66% were ALD-related, 29% to 39% were alcohol withdrawal or alcohol-related mood disorders, 3% to 5% were alcohol-related cardiomyopathy, and 1% to 3% were alcohol-related gastritis with bleeding. Middle-aged women experienced statistically significant increases in 10 of the 18 pandemic months (range of absolute and relative increases: 1.3 to 2.1 episodes per 100, 000 women; 33.3% to 56.0% increase), mostly of ALD complications.

Analysis spotlights sperm defects in month after COVID infection, but not at 90 days -In the 30 days after COVID-19 infection, total sperm count, sperm concentration, total sperm motility (movement), and progressive motility were significantly reduced in a cohort of Chinese men, with the most severe effects in those with moderate to high fever, researchers from Sichuan Provincial Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital report in Scientific Reports. The researchers tracked semen quality in 58 men for up to 109 days after COVID-19 diagnosis and used a linear mixed-effects model to analyze semen parameters at different time points before and after infection. They noted that previous studies suggest that angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) facilitates SARS-CoV-2 entry into testicular cells, where it leads to testes injury and impairs sperm production. While there was no significant difference in semen volume before or after COVID-19 diagnosis, median total sperm count and concentration were lower after infection. Total sperm motility and progressive motility were significantly lower after diagnosis, and the percentage of non-moving sperm was higher. Rates of sperm survival and normal sperm form decreased, with greater head defects but similar numbers of sperm with neck, mid-piece, or tail defects. No differences were noted in the number of round cells, anti-sperm antibodies, semen liquefaction time, or viscosity before or after COVID-19 infection. The greatest drop in sperm count and concentration occurred within 30 days, followed by a gradual recovery and normalization by 90 days. The percentage of normal sperm fell, and the percentage of sperm with head defects significantly increased from 30 to 60 days, followed by recovery. An initial drop in sperm survival returned to baseline by 30 days.Patients with a moderate or high fever saw a statistically significant decline in semen parameters, while those with a mild fever did not."Fever severity during SARS-CoV-2 infection may constitute the main influencing factor in reducing semen parameters in patients after recovery, but the effect is reversible," the study authors concluded.

1 in 5 adults with diabetes experienced functional decline during pandemic -- A study yesterday based on Canadian adults with diabetes found that roughly 20% experienced functional decline for the first time during the pandemic, including challenges with activities of daily living, including climbing stairs, getting in and out of chairs, and walking several blocks. The study, published in the Canadian Journal of Diabetes, was based on participants in the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging. The study included 6,045 adults who reported no functional limitations from 2015 through 2018. People with diabetes were more likely to be men (60.7% vs 46.2%), obese (36.5% vs 18.6%), and have one or more chronic condition (36.0% vs 29.6%), compared to adults without diabetes. A total of 18.9% of adults with diabetes reported a functional limitation with an onset after 2020, compared to 13.2% of adults without diabetes. Overall, the odds of developing at least one functional limitation outcome was 1.28-fold higher (95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.60) among people with diabetes compared to those without. For both adults with or without diabetes, the greatest risk factor for developing a functional limitation was earning less than $50,000 annually.

Many healthcare workers unsure about COVID vaccine boosters for themselves, kids -- A survey of more than 4,100 healthcare personnel (HCP) at a New York healthcare system from 2021 to 2022 reveals that 17% were hesitant to receive the recommended COVID-19 vaccine booster, and 33% were unsure about vaccinating their children. Many of the HCP polled held unsubstantiated beliefs not only about COVID vaccines but also childhood vaccines. The Northwell Health–led study, published in Vaccine, involved 4,165 HCP who completed the mandatory COVID-19 primary vaccine series, had intact immune systems, and took electronic surveys from December 2021 to January 2022. The aim was to identify links between sociodemographic and employment factors and perceptions of COVID-19 vaccines among HCP overall and a subset who had children.New York state mandated that all HCP, regardless of job role and title, receive the first dose of the primary COVID-19 vaccine series by September 27, 2021, as a requirement for employment. During the study period, the booster dose was recommended but not mandated.Respondents were primarily women (83.1%), and age, race, and languages spoken were evenly distributed. Of the respondents, 42.4% had high patient contact, and 22.9% had some contact. The largest percentages of HCP were nurses (26.0%), clinicians (10.5%), and other providers (4.4%).An estimated 17.2% of administrative and clinical HCP were hesitant to receive the state-recommended COVID-19 vaccine booster, and 32.6% were unsure about having their children vaccinated, regardless of whether the HCP had a clinical role.A large proportion of respondents were unsure about the COVID-19 vaccine's effects on infertility (33.3%), miscarriage (37.0%), DNA changes (23.1%), and immune response (21.7%). A total of 46.4% were unsure about any link between COVID-19 vaccines and myocarditis, and 47.0% were moderately to extremely confident about discussing common vaccine concerns.

Report: Less than half of nursing home residents up to date on COVID vaccines -In this week’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, researchers review COVID-19 activity and vaccination in US nursing homes from October 2023 through February 2024 and find up to 26% of nursing homes reported at least one case of COVID-19 during each week of the study period.The study was based on information gathered as part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Healthcare Safety Network.Weekly rates of incident SARS-CoV-2 infection ranged from 61.4 per 10,000 nursing home residents during the week ending February 11, 2024, to 133.8 per 10,000 during the week ending December 3, 2023. The cumulative weekly SARS-CoV-2 infection rate was highest in the Midwest region (130.1 per 10,000 residents) and lowest in the South (93.1 per 10,000).The same geographic pattern was seen among COVID hospitalizations: The cumulative weekly COVID-19–associated hospitalization rate was 5.8 per 10,000 residents and was highest in the Midwest (6.7 per 10,000) and lowest in the South (5.0 per 10,000), the authors said.Nursing homes were the first epicenters of the pandemic in the United States in 2020, as those 85 years and older are the most likely to die from infections with the novel coronavirus. Despite the risk of severe infection from COVID-19, the study authors found that only 40.5% of residents were up to date with COVID vaccination by the end of the study period. Residents in the South had the lowest rate (32.4%), compared to residents in the Northeast, who had the highest (47.3%)."This finding indicates that an important prevention tool is being underutilized in this population," the authors concluded.

Germany’s Coronavirus Commission of Enquiry aims to criminalise protective measures - After the federal and state governments lifted all coronavirus protection measures and allowed the virus to run free, proclaiming the myth of the “end of the pandemic,” they are now moving to criminalise the protective measures taken in the past. This is what is behind the debate about setting up a Commission of Enquiry. A year ago, representatives of all the parties in the Bundestag (federal parliament) discussed such a commission and were in favour of it. The most recent trigger for the revival of the debate was the complaint by the right-wing conspiracy theorist blog Multipolar, which led to the publication of the protocols on the coronavirus pandemic established by the public health body, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). It is quite clear that such a commission would not serve the purpose of serious scientific evaluation, but rather the criminalisation of life-saving measures taken in the past. This is made clear by the very fact that the call for such a commission of enquiry comes directly from the repertoire of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which was the first to make this demand. In the meantime, all other parties in the Bundestag have adopted these or similar demands. The Liberal Democratic Party (FDP) in particular has been vociferously in favour of a commission of enquiry since the publication of the RKI report. Its chairman, Christian Lindner, told the Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger: “Today we know that many decisions made by the previous federal government caused great social and economic damage. ... School closures, contact restrictions, curfews and access bans were in some cases completely disproportionate encroachments on civil liberties.” A commission of enquiry was “the means of choice” to analyse these measures. FDP Secretary General Bijan Djir-Saraj complained that “rational criticism” had been “likened to coronavirus deniers” with the demand for relaxation. And FDP Vice Chairman Wolfgang Kubicki, who had previously boasted that he had not adhered to some safety measures, claimed in the jargon of coronavirus deniers that the RKI had “probably served as a scientific facade for political decisions.” All the other parties in the Bundestag also support these demands. A year ago, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) health policy spokesperson Tino Sorge called for a commission of enquiry to “systematically analyse the coronavirus policy.” Lockdowns, school and daycare centre closures had caused “devastating collateral damage.” In Saxony-Anhalt, a commission of enquiry has already been set up under CDU Minister President Reiner Haseloff on April 4. Although the Social Democratic Party (SPD) criticised the specific call for a commission of enquiry, it is in favour of establishing comparable bodies with the same goal, such as the “Health and Resilience” expert council set up at the Chancellery. The fact that this also pursues the goal of criminalising any protective measures is made clear by the statements of Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD). He explained: “The biggest mistake was that we were too strict with children in some cases and probably started easing measures a little too late.” A year ago, he described the closure of schools and daycare centres as a mistake.

US respiratory virus activity continues to tail off -Respiratory virus activity from flu, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) continues to decline across most of the country, with only two jurisdictions—North Dakota and Wyoming—reporting high activity, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in updates today. In its weekly FluView update, the CDC said key markers such as test positivity continue to fall, and only one region is above its regional baseline for outpatient visits for flulike illness: the northeast. All three viruses are circulating, with influenza A making up 62.4% of samples at public health labs. Of subtyped influenza A samples, about half were 2009 H1N1, and half were H3N2.Hospitalizations continue to decline, but overall deaths were up slightly. The CDC received reports of 4 more pediatric flu deaths, raising the season's total to 142. For COVID, the CDC's latest data updates show more declines for both severity indicators (hospitalizations and deaths) and early indicators (test positivity and emergency department visits). Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections, another early indicator, have declined to the minimal level and are currently highest in the Midwest.In its weekly respiratory virus snapshot, the CDC said for RSV, all 10 regions are below the 3% epidemic threshold, suggesting that the season is ending. RSV hospitalizations remain low for all age-groups.

More than a fifth of older adults with RSV have acute cardiac events, data reveal -- A study yesterday in JAMA Internal Medicine demonstrates that 22% of hospitalized adults aged 50 years or older with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection experienced an acute cardiac event—most frequently acute heart failure (16%). Moreover, 1 in 12 of infected patients (8.5%) had no documented underlying cardiovascular disease. RSV is associated with annual totals of up to 160,000 US hospitalizations, 10,000 deaths, and $4 billion in direct healthcare costs among adults age 65 years or older. "Despite evidence of considerable RSV-associated morbidity, mortality, and health care expenditure, the potential severity of RSV infection in adults has historically been underappreciated by public health professionals and clinicians," the authors write. RSV is rarely tested for in the clinical settings, and symptoms usually mirror other respiratory diseases, they add. The study consisted of outcomes among 6,248 adults aged 50 years and older hospitalized for RSV during 2014 to 2018, and then in 2022 and 2023, in 12 US states. Almost 60% of the adults were women, and 65.9% were White. Upon hospital admission, 93.1% of those included in the study had a fever, and 80.6% had a cough.A total of 56.4% of patients had underlying cardiovascular disease, including 31.9% with heart failure, 30.2% with coronary artery disease, and 25.2% with atrial fibrillation. After cardiovascular disease, diabetes (35%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (34.8%) were the most common underlying conditions.According to the authors, the weighted estimated prevalence of experiencing an acute cardiac event among adults aged 50 years or older hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed RSV infection was 22.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21.0% to 23.7%.) Among those events, acute heart failure was the most common, with a prevalence of 15.8% (95% CI, 14.6% to 17.0%) in all RSV-infected patients. Patients with underlying cardiovascular disease had a greater weighted risk of experiencing an acute cardiac event of any category compared to those without underlying cardiovascular disease (33.0% vs 8.5%). A history of heart failure, age 85 years or older, and atrial fibrillation were also associated with a higher risk of having an acute cardiac event.Experiencing an acute cardiac event during hospitalization was also associated with more severe RSV outcomes, including intensive care unit admission, invasive mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital death."Acute cardiac events occurred frequently among adults with a history of underlying cardiovascular disease, particularly chronic heart failure," the authors concluded. "However, acute cardiac events also occurred in 1 in 12 adults who had no previous documentation of cardiovascular disease, suggesting that severe RSV infection may precipitate or reveal previously undiagnosed cardiovascular disease." In an editor's note published on the study, Tracy Wang, MD, MHS, a JAMA Internal Medicine associate editor, warns that RSV vaccine uptake among older Americans has been very low, much lower than flu vaccination. "Prior RSV-related efforts have focused on infants and young children, with many clinicians and patients still unaware of RSV burden of disease and prognosis in older adults," Wang writes. Moreover, RSV vaccines are inconsistently covered by insurance carriers. "This coverage difference means that many clinic offices need to refer patients to pharmacies for vaccination, and out-of-pocket costs may be necessary for vaccination," she adds. "Vaccine fatigue and access barriers among currently eligible persons need to be addressed to enhance uptake by those who stand to benefit."

CDC warns of Salmonella outbreak linked to fresh basil -Packaged fresh organic basil sold at Trader Joe's has been implicated in a new seven-state Salmonella outbreak, according to a report yesterday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).So far 12 people have reported illnesses. There has been 1 hospitalization and no deaths. Minnesota has reported 4 cases, Florida has confirmed 3, and Wisconsin, Georgia, New Jersey, and Missouri have each noted a single case.Illnesses started on dates ranging from February 11, 2024, to April 2, 2024, the CDC said, and patients are 2 to 59 years. In epidemiologic interviews, 10 out of 12 people (83%) reported shopping at Trader Joe's. Of 8 people with information, 7 (88%) said they ate basil in the week prior to illness. Seven case-patients reported buying or likely buying organic basil in 2.5-ounce clamshell-style containers from Trader Joe's.The organic basil is sold by Infinite Herbs of Miami. Trader Joe's sells the ' product in 29 states. The grocery chain has pulled the product from its shelves, and it stopped shipments of the basil on April 12.Infinite Herbs will initiate a voluntary recall, the CDC said. "Do not eat any contaminated basil. Check your home for contaminated basil listed above. Throw it away or return it to Trader Joe's," the CDC in its outbreak notice.

Las Vegas, Cincinnati officials track measles exposures from infected visitors -Health officials in the Las Vegas area and Cincinnati have issued warnings about potential measles exposures in public locations linked to sick visitors from out of state, part of an ongoing rise in measles activity in the United States. Meanwhile, two more cases have been reported in Chicago's suburbs.The Southern Nevada Health District reported a confirmed infection in someone who visited Clark County between April 1 and April 6. The person stayed at the MGM Grand hotel and spent time at several of the facility's attractions. Health officials said the patient also visited locations throughout Las Vegas and Henderson."People who may have been exposed should review their immunization status and contact their health care providers if they are not fully immunized against measles or have not already had the disease," the officials said.The Cincinnati Department of Health warned of potential measles exposures at a hotel and restaurant downtown after a visitor from Illinois tested positive for measles, the Cincinnati Enquirer reported, citing local health officials. The case is the city's second involving a sick visitor this year.In other developments, two more cases were reported in the suburbs of Chicago, and neither were linked to an outbreak at a Chicago migrant shelter.One of the cases marks Cook County's second case of the year, which involves an adult who has a community-acquired infection. The individual had spent several hours across several days while infectious at a Hispanic supermarket in Cicero, the county's health department said in a statement.The second patient is from DuPage County, and the county health department said the case marks the county's first since 2009. The patient received outpatient care, and health officials are tracking people who may have been exposed. So far, no exposure locations have been identified in DuPage County. In its latest update, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed 121 US measles cases so far for 2024. That total does not include the latest from the Chicago area.

US measles cases top 120 as LA County tracks case with multiple exposures -- Eight more measles cases have been reported, putting the nation's total at 121 so far this year, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in its latest weekly update. The number of affected jurisdictions remained the same, at 18.Of the 121 cases, 86 were linked to seven outbreaks, including a large one at a Chicago migrant shelter. Last year at this time the CDC had received reports of 58 cases, 28 of them linked to four outbreaks. Of the cases this year, 47% occurred in children younger than 5 years old. Young children also had the highest level of hospitalizations (65%). And. of people infected, 82% were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status. In related developments, the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said state health officials have notified it of a measles case involving a resident from outside the county who had recently visited several locations in Los Angeles County, including Universal Studios.The patient had also stayed at a hotel for 3 nights and visited several restaurants in the area. County health officials also said they are investigating more locations where exposure might have occurred.

Household study shows dogs, cats share multidrug-resistant bacteria with their owners The results of new research to be presented later this month at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Global Congress suggest companion animals could play a role in the spread of multidrug-resistant bacteria.In a longitudinal study conducted among 65 pet-owning households in the United Kingdom and Portugal, researchers from the University of Lisbon collected and analyzed clinical and fecal samples from dogs and cats who had community-acquired skin and other soft-tissue infections (SSTIs) and urinary tract infections (UTIs) and their healthy owners. They were looking to determine whether multidrug-resistant pathogens—specifically extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)/AmpC– and carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales—could be passed from pets to their owners.Carriage of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales was observed in a single dog (1 of 43 companion animals, 2.3%) in Portugal and a single dog (1 of 22, 4.5%) in the United Kingdom, while 24 (55.8%) of 43 companion animals and 28 (35.9%) of 78 owners in Portugal were colonized by ESBL/AmpC-producing Enterobacterales at at least one point. In the United Kingdom, ESBL/AmpC-producing Enterobacterales were isolated from 8 (36.4%) of 22 companion animals and 3 (12.5%) of 22 owners.In five households in Portugal and two in the United Kingdom, whole-genome sequencing showed that both the pet and the owner were carrying the same strain of ESBL/AmpC-producing Enterobacterales.Although the researchers were not able to conclusively prove the direction of transmission, they say the timing of the positive tests for ESBL/AmpC-producing bacteria in three of the Portuguese households suggests the bacteria were being passed from the pets to their owners. All of the animals were successfully treated for their infections, and none of the owners developed infections.The researchers say understanding and addressing the transmission of drug-resistant bacteria between pets and their owners could help inform the development of targeted interventions that safeguard both human and animal health."Our findings underline the importance of including pet-owning households in national programmes that monitor levels of antibiotic resistance," lead researcher Juliana Menezes, PhD, said in an ESCMID press release.

Syphilis case increase sparks Colorado public health order - An alarming spike in syphilis cases in Colorado prompted a statewide public health order, particularly focused on treating the disease among pregnant woman and babies. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) announced Thursday the state would implement more measures to combat congenital syphilis, which has “increased dramatically” over the past several years. The main focus of the initiative is helping pregnant women and their babies receive testing and treatment, he said during an announcement. “People should know that this is a treatable disease for adults. A course of penicillin generally does the trick. Some adults have very mild symptoms, there’s a lack of diagnosis, others who were symptomatic and treated with penicillin,” Polis said. “But the real danger here is for newborns.” “The fatality rate is significant for newborns who are born to a mothers who has syphilis,” he continued. According to the state, citing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), about 40 percent of babies who have untreated congenital syphilis may be stillborn or die from the infection. Polis said the state has seen the number of infections increase “sevenfold” in the last five years. In 2018, the state had 1,084 cases; in 2023, it had 3,266. State Epidemiologist Rachel Herlihy said the consistent rise in cases across the state “means that we have a statewide congenital syphilis epidemic.”

New mpox clade 1 lineage identified in DR Congo outbreak - In a preprint study this week, a genetic sequencing analysis from an international group of researchers led by scientists in Africa identified a distinct mpox clade, fueling a severe outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). They proposed that the clade be named clade 1b and warned that urgent measures are needed to contain it due to its pandemic potential. The DRC's mpox outbreak has been under way since 2023 due to the clade 1 virus, which is different from the clade 2 virus that has spread globally, mainly in men who have sex with men, since 2022. The clade 1 virus is more virulent and deadlier than clade 2, and the DRC's outbreak has involved sexual spread and a high burden in children, who are contracting the virus from household contacts and small mammals. For the sequencing study, the team examined surveillance data and hospital records collected from October 2023 to January 2024. They evaluated diagnostic testing results from blood samples and oropharyngeal swabs, then sequenced and analyzed the virus genomes.They noted that the outbreak spread rapidly from a mining area near Kamituga, with sex workers making up nearly 30% of lab-confirmed case-patients. Genetic analysis revealed a distinct clade 1 mpox virus that was different from earlier viruses that had been identified in the DRC. Mutations suggested the virus new clade emerged in September 2023 and spread person-to-person. Analysis of gene sequences of earlier mpox cases in the outbreak areas suggested that the new lineage may have been present in in a local animal reservoir.The researchers said sustained spread in the Kamituga region raises concerns because of its poor healthcare infrastructure, frequent population travel to Rwanda and Burundi, and the fact that a number of the sex workers in Kamituga are foreigners and frequently return to their home countries.So far, no cases involving the new lineage have been reported outside of the DRC. The group warned, however, "Given the recent history of mpox outbreaks in DRC, we advocate for swift action by endemic countries and the international community to avert another global mpox outbreak.

Quick takes: Colombian Oropouche virus cases, orphan drug status for Ebola Sudan vaccine | CIDRAP

• Colombia has reported two Oropouche virus cases, the fourth country in the Americas to report cases of the disease this year, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said in an epidemiologic update. The infections were detected via retrospective case-finding from 187 samples collected in 2024 by Colombia's National Health Institute as part of dengue surveillance. The patients are from Amazonas and Meta departments. Amazonas is in the far south, and Meta is the central region. The disease is spread by midges and some mosquito species. Bolivia, Brazil, and Peru have also reported cases this year.
• Soligenix, a biopharmaceutical company based in New Jersey, recently announced that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has granted orphan drug designation to the active ingredient in SuVax, its subunit protein recombinant vaccine as prevention and postexposure prophylaxis against Ebola Sudan, for which no vaccines or treatments currently exist. Ebola Sudan is the second most common cause of human Ebola infections. In 2022, Uganda experienced an Ebola Sudan outbreak that resulted in 164 cases, 55 of them fatal. Earlier this year, the company reported that a bivalent (two-strain) version of the vaccine in a nonhuman primate trial provided complete protection against Ebola Sudan and Marburg viruses.

Even after successful TB treatment, evidence found of lasting lung damage -During this month's annual European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID Global) conference in Spain, UK researchers will present evidence that patients successfully treated for tuberculosis (TB) have lasting lung damage, including smaller lungs with narrower airways and slower air flow.The findings are based on a meta-analysis of data collected on 75,631 people from 15 studies conducted in 17 countries with varying TB incidence and income levels from 2000 through 2023. Of the 75,631 study participants, 7,377 were TB survivors.Four measures of lung functions were included in the analysis: Forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1, the volume of air that can be forcefully exhaled in one second); forced vital capacity (FVC, the volume of air that can be forcefully exhaled in a single breath); FEV1/FVC ratio; and FVC as a percentage of the predicted value (compares the volume to the average of a healthy person of the same age, sex, and height). "FEV1 was 230 millilitres lower compared to healthy controls, and FVC was 140 millilitres lower," said lead researcher Dr Sharenja Ratnakumar, of the University of London, in a press release from ESCMID Global. "A decrease in FEV1 of 100 millilitres is considered clinically significant and is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory disease." While the treatment of acute TB has been the main clinical focus for the past several decades, the authors said it's time to recognize the toll of post-TB lung disease. Between 2000 and 2020, an estimated 74 million lives were saved after successful TB treatment, with many patients under the age of 50. The burden of post-TB lung damages is not yet known, the authors said, and likely poses a significant public health challenge.

Feds probe injuries from counterfeit Botox injections - Federal health officials and their state and local health partners are investigating reports of harmful reactions in women who received counterfeit or mishandled botulinum toxin (Botox) injections, with 19 injuries reported in nine states, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announcedyesterday.The reactions occurred following Botox injections from unlicensed and untrained people in non-healthcare settings, including homes and spas. The patients are from Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, and Washington.Botox contains minute amounts of botulinum toxin, which comes from the bacterium Clostridium botulinum. The toxin, which in larger amounts can cause muscle paralysis, in very small amounts is used to smooth wrinkles and treat certain muscle conditions. Examples of the patients' reactions include vision problems, drooping eyelids, difficulty swallowing, difficulty breathing, and general weakness. Nine were hospitalized, and four were treated with botulinum antitoxin owing to concerns that botulinum could spread beyond the injection site. Five people were tested for botulism, and all were negative. All patients were women ages 25 to 59, and all but one received the injections for cosmetic purposes. Some women received counterfeit or unverified products, and investigators are still working to determine the sources. In a separate statement, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said it is working with AbbVie, the Botox manufacturer, to identify, investigate, and remove suspected counterfeit products. It added that there is no sign that the events were related to AbbVie's FDA-approved products. The CDC urged people considering Botox injections to ensure that providers are licensed and trained and to ask if the product is approved by the FDA and obtained from a reliable source. "If in doubt, don’t get the injection," the agency added.

Tazewell County, Virginia reports first CWD case Chronic wasting disease (CWD) has been detected for the first time in Tazewell County, Virginia, 10 News reports.The Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources (DWR) confirmed the fatal prion disease in a buck harvested by a hunter in November 2023. The deer tested positive after the DWR obtained a sample from a taxidermist as part of statewide CWD surveillance efforts. The deer had no apparent signs of disease.The DWR said it will release information on containment efforts in the county on its website and in the annual hunting laws digest.Caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, CWD affects deer and other cervids. The neurodegenerative disease can spread among animals through direct contact or from environmental exposure. While CWD isn't known to infect people, health officials urge people to avoid eating contaminated meat and to use precautions when field-dressing deer.

Hunters Die After Consuming CWD-Infected Venison - Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) has been sweeping through North American deer herds since it was first detected at a captive cervid facility in Wyoming in 1967. In all the decades since, there's never been a documented and confirmed instance of the always-fatal neurological disease jumping the species barrier, from cervids into humans. According to a new study, published last week in the journal Neurology, that long-discussed and frequently dreaded transmission of CWD from hunter-harvested deer into human beings might have actually occurred in 2022.The study title alone is enough to perk the ears of anyone who's followed the CWD epidemic over the years. "Two Hunters from the Same Lodge Afflicted with Sporadic CJD," it reads. "Is Chronic Wasting Disease to Blame?" The authors go on to highlight "a cluster of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) cases after exposure to chronic wasting disease (CWD)-infected deer." Those findings, they say, are "suggestive of potential prion transmission from CWD-infected deer to humans."CJD is better known for its association with Mad Cow Disease. Like CWD, mad cow disease is transmitted in cows through mis-folded proteins called prions. And like CWD, it causes a cascade of brain-related maladies that ultimately lead to death in the bovines unlucky enough to contract it. Mad Cow Disease has been shown to transmit to human beings through the consumption of infected beef. When the disease manifests in people, it's referred to as Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease.The recent paper describes an unnamed hunter who contracted CJD after regular consumption of venison from deer infected with Chronic Wasting Disease. "In 2022, a 72-year-old man with a history of consuming meat from a CWD-infected deer population presented with rapid-onset confusion and aggression," it reads. This CDC graphic shows the distribution of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in the United States by county.Those are classic symptoms of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. "Despite aggressive symptomatic treatment of seizures and agitation, the patient’s condition deteriorated and he died within a month of initial presentation," the study goes on to state. "The diagnosis was confirmed postmortem as sporadic CJD." Given the patients history of consuming CWD-infected deer meat, the authors suggest "a possible novel animal-to-human transmission of CWD." They also studied the case of one of the hunters friends who ate venison from the same deer population. That person recently died from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease as well, the authors says.

Avian flu virus detected in more Michigan dairy herds and on another large layer farm The Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) recently reported detections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in dairy herds in three more counties, including Ionia, where the virus struck for a second time at a massive layer chicken facility. In other avian flu developments, Minnesota and New Mexico reported their first outbreaks in commercial poultry operations for 2024.Michigan reported its first outbreak in dairy cows on March 29, which affected a herd in Montcalm County in the west central part of the state that had recently received cows from an affected facility in Texas.In an April 12 statement, MDARD said the three additional herds in Michigan are located in three counties: Ionia, Isabella, and Ottawa. Ionia and Isabella counties border Montcalm County. Ottawa County is located on the western border of Michigan's lower peninsula.Officials didn't specify the suspected source of the virus in the state's three latest detections."What is happening with HPAI in Michigan mirrors what is happening in states across the country. This virus does not stop at county or state lines, which is why we must all be on high alert," said Tim Boring, PhD, MDARD's director. "This news is unfortunate and upsetting for our poultry and dairy farming families and communities."He said experts across the nation continue to assess the situation and are providing insights into the impact of HPAI on affected livestock.A day before the latest announcement, MDARD strongly urged producers to tighten all biosecurity measures to reduce the risk of spreading the virus. "This is a virus that can easily be moved unknowingly on everything from farm equipment to shoes to delivery or service vehicles and the list goes on," Boring said.

Quick takes: Avian flu in 1 more dairy herd, more US mpox cases, polio in Africa | CIDRAP

• The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) yesterday said H5N1 avian flu has been confirmed in 1 more dairy herd, which involves another from Michigan, raising the national total to 29. The virus has now been found in 5 Michigan dairy herds. In a related development, Michigan agriculture and health officials yesterday posted a statement reminding the state's residents about the risk of drinking raw (unpasteurized) milk amid the outbreak involving dairy cows.
• The number of mpox cases in the United States so far this year is more than double the number reported at this time in 2023, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said, based on data collected as of April 13. So far, 750 cases have been reported in 2024, up sharply from 336 reported during the same time last year. Hot spots include the Middle Atlantic and South Atlantic regions, including New York City and the District of Columbia.
• Three African countries reported more polio cases this week, all involving vaccine-derived strains, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said in its latest weekly update. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) reported an infection involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 1 (cVDPV1) in a patient from Haut Katanga province, its first of the year involving the strain. Chad reported a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) case from Mandoul, its first of the year. Also, Nigeria reported one more cVDPB2 case, with affected a patient from Kebbi, raising its total for the year to eight.

USDA scientists weigh avian flu vaccine for cows; virus may be spreading from cattle to poultry -In updates to its frequently-asked-question backgrounder on the H5N1 avian flu situation in dairy cows yesterday, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) provided several updates on the investigation and response, including that its Agricultural Research Service has started to assess the potential to develop an H5N1 vaccine for cows.The agency added that it's difficult to say how long development might take, because there are still questions about transmission to cattle and characteristics of infection in cows. APHIS said manufacturers have expressed interest in producing vaccines for both poultry and cows."We will continue to engage with these developers to better understand their vaccine development, the efficacy of potential vaccines, as well as the cost of development and production," it said.Among other updates, APHIS said wild migratory birds are still thought to be the original source of the virus, though the investigations have found instances of virus spread linked to cattle movements between herds.APHIS also noted that there is similar evidence that the virus has spread from dairy herds back into poultry flocks through an unknown route. In other developments, the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) said yesterday that tests have confirmed highly pathogenic avian flu in a commercial poultry facility in Newaygo County, which is located in the west central region not far where outbreaks recently struck dairy facilities and poultry operations. MDARD urged producers to protect their animals from wild birds and viruses they may be carrying as the wild birds complete their spring migration.Recent outbreaks were reported at two massive Ionia County layer facilities, and the latest poultry outbreak updates from USDA APHIS reflect a third outbreak in Ionia County, at a farm that has 2.4 million birds. APHIS also reported a second outbreak at a hatchery in New Mexico's Roosevelt County and infections at a live-bird sales operation in Florida's Miami-Dade County.

Canada reports more H5N5 avian flu virus detections in mammals, wild birds -Animal health officials in Canada have reported more highly pathogenic H5N5 avian flu detections in wild birds and mammals, according to recent notifications from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH).In May 2023, the country reported the Eurasian H5N5 subtype in racoons found dead on Prince Edward Island, which followed sporadic detections of H5N5 in Canadian wild birds. At the time, WOAH warned of unprecedented genetic variability in avian flu subtypes in wild birds and poultry across the world, creating epidemiologic challenges.The new detections in mammals also involved raccoons, which were found in February and March on Prince Edward Island and in Nova Scotia. The virus belongs to the same 2.3.4.4b clade as the H5N1 virus currently circulating in several world regions.Canada also reported more H5N5 detections in wild birds, which involved crows found on Prince Edward Island in early January.

It’s ‘irresponsible’ to ignore widespread consciousness across animal world, dozens of scientists argue -- There is good reason to believe that fish, amphibians, molluscs and insects are sentient, according to a new declaration signed by three dozen scientists.The New York Declaration on Animal Consciousness argues that current scientific research indicates such widespread animal consciousness is a “realistic possibility” — and that scientists and policymakers must take that into account when considering risks to those animals. The declaration was published on Friday at an event at New York University, where scientists engaged in active and at times heated debate about the state of the science on animal consciousness, and the wisdom of releasing such a statement at all.The problem of considering animal consciousness is that it “immediately brings us into contact with serious imaginative limitations,” signatory Jonathan Birch, a philosopher at the London School of Economics, told attendees. That’s a problem wrapped into the titles of many classic papers and books that wrestle with the subject, from philosopher Thomas Nagel’s seminal 1974 paper “What is it like to be a bat” to primatologist Franz de Waal’s 2017 book Are We Smart Enough to Know How Smart Animals Are?Many scientists and philosophers have argued that humans’ own limitations — as a species with a dense internal monologue, a reliance on sight and a culture built on spoken language — can blind us to how sentience might work in other species.“Sometimes these imaginative limitations lead people to doubt whether the scientific evidence can bear on these questions at all,” Birch said.

‘Forever chemicals’ have been linked to many diseases. Are they connected to breast and gynecological cancers, too? - Loreen Hackett suffered two bouts of cancer before she turned 50. Cancerous cells were discovered in her cervix when she was in her 20s, leading her to undergo a hysterectomy when she was just 28. Less than two decades later, she was diagnosed again — this time with breast cancer.Hackett, a longtime activist, said she now believes both her cancers were connected to “forever chemicals” contamination in the drinking water in Hoosick Falls, N.Y., where she has lived for most of her life and where state agencies detected problematic levels of a certain type of the compounds, known as PFOA, in the community’s groundwater supplies and private wells in 2016.Scientists are researching the possibility of such a link between exposure to the substances, known as PFAS, and breast and gynecological cancers — though they have yet to find a definitive connection.PFAS, which stands for per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, are a class of chemicals found in a range of consumer products such as Teflon pans, waterproof apparel, cosmetics and stain removers. They have become pervasive in the air, water and soil due to their use in manufacturing, and are estimated to be in the blood of about 97 percent of Americans. Scientists have found evidence connecting numerous cancers — including testicular cancer — and other adverse health outcomes to PFAS exposure, and more findings on the issue are rapidly emerging. Establishing these links can be complicated, however.“Most cancers take years to develop, and may have developmental origins that we do not clearly understand,” said Suzanne Fenton, who at the time was a group leader in the Mechanistic Toxicology Branch of the National Toxicology Program at the National Institutes of Health.Further muddying the waters is the fact that breast and ovarian cancers include many unique subtypes, each of which could have inconsistent interactions with PFAS exposures, noted Fenton, who became the director of North Carolina State University’s Center for Human Health and the Environment in October 2023.Patients also may be exposed to a variety of chemicals in their environment, for different amounts of time — complicating the quest “to pinpoint the role of PFAS in particular types of cancers,” she added.Experts agree, however, that exposure to the substances could have an effect on a person’s immune system, making them more vulnerable to illnesses across the board — including cancers.Both animal and human studies have shown that several types of PFAS can impact immune function — leading the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to propose using those effectsas drivers for their health advisories for certain PFAS compounds, according to Fenton.

EPA declares 2 forever chemicals are ‘hazardous,’ putting polluters on the hook for cleanup The Biden administration designated two pervasive pollutants as “hazardous substances” Friday — making it easier to put companies that dumped them on the hook for cleanup costs. The move by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designates two types of PFAS as hazardous under the nation’s legacy pollution law. PFAS, which stands for per-and polyfluoroalkyl substances, refers to a class of cancer-linked chemicals that have been used to make nonstick and waterproof products, as well as firefighting foam. The toxic chemicals have become pervasive in U.S. waterways, but have also contaminated specific sites, including areas near chemical plants and military bases. The EPA’s latest action seeks to enable remediation of historic pollution of two of the most notorious and dangerous types, called PFOA and PFOS. The new hazardous substance designation gives the agency greater authority to investigate and clean up sites that have been polluted with these chemicals under the nation’s Superfund law. It also makes it easier for the agency to compel the companies that dumped them to pay for those actions. The EPA also said that it was issuing a separate policy stating that it would focus these efforts on big polluters like companies that made or used PFAS in manufacturing or certain federal facilities. The agency said that its move would enable “earlier, broader, and more effective cleanups of contaminated sites” because it would give EPA access to a broader suite of tools to address the problem and allow for additional chemicals at those sites to also be addressed. Ultimately, the EPA said the reduced exposure to PFOA and PFOS would result in fewer cases of the illnesses associated with them, including cancers such as kidney cancer and thyroid disorders.

The US-Mexico Dispute Over GM Corn Safety Could Transform American Agriculture -Mexico’s effort to keep genetically modified corn out of the country is triggering a trade dispute with the United States and Canada that could affect the future of agriculture.The trade dispute hinges on a key question: whether genetically modified (GM) corn poses a threat to human health. U.S. trade representatives argue it does not and wants to force GM corn into Mexico. Given that GM seed is used in 90 percent of U.S. crops, the dispute could have far-reaching effects should Mexico win. Beyond the U.S. agricultural sector, it could damage the German and Chinese companies that make and sell those seeds.The Epoch Times has reached out to Bayer, the company that bought seed giant Monsanto, and Chinese state-owned Syngenta, but has yet to get a response.Corn has fed previous trade battles between Mexico and the United States, with Mexican producers previously protesting the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) for allowing American corn in without restriction. In the latest chapter, Mexico issued a presidential decree in February 2023 that bans GM corn in tortillas and dough and signaled the country’s intention to gradually replace GM corn in all animal and human foods.Canada, which is deeply integrated into U.S. and Mexican agricultural trade, and the United States both opposed the ban.Mexico has kept genetically modified corn from being grown within its borders for 25 years in an effort to protect both citizen health and ancient strains of maize. Corn is a staple crop eaten in 89 percent of Mexican meals.The United States has largely disregarded health concerns arising from GM crops and has spent the past year working to prove Mexico’s 2023 decree violates the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).The restrictions, originally slated to go into effect this year, set off a disagreement now in the hands of a USMCA trade panel after Mexico and the United States failed to resolve it through negotiations.The United States contends that there’s no scientific evidence that GM corn is unsafe to eat, a claim Mexico refutes. Mexico says the United States hasn’t presented any evidence of GM corn’s long-term safety, particularly when eaten at high levels.Corn consumption is ten times higher in Mexico, raising concerns among its medical and governmental leaders about research linking GM crops to health issues.

Flash floods in Afghanistan claim 33 lives, damage 600 houses - (2 videos) Heavy seasonal rainfall affecting Afghanistan since April 12, 2024, has led to devastating floods and roof collapses in 20 out of 34 provinces. As of April 15, these incidents have resulted in 33 fatalities and 27 injuries, with Kabul, Farah, Herat, Kandahar, and Zabul being the worst affected. Over 1 000 families have been impacted, and significant damage to property and infrastructure has been reported. Heavy rainfall that began on April 12, 2024, has led to severe floods affecting 20 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. The most severe impacts have been felt in Kabul, Farah, Herat, Kandahar, and Zabul, where extensive property damage and casualties have been reported. As stated by Abdullah Janan Saiq, a spokesperson for the State Ministry for Natural Disaster Management, the floods have resulted in the deaths of 33 people, injuries to 27, and significant damage to homes and infrastructure. Approximately 600 houses have been either damaged or completely destroyed, along with more than 85 km (52.8 miles) of roads and about 2 000 ha (4 942 acres) of farmland. In addition, more than 200 livestock were killed. Most fatalities occurred due to collapsing roofs, exacerbated by the structures weakened by an unusually dry winter season preceding the rains. This dry spell also delayed the sowing of crops, further complicating the agricultural challenges faced by farmers in the region. The weather forecast predicts continued heavy rainfall, with particularly intense downpours expected in Kabul province.

Destructive landslide hits Indonesia’s South Sulawesi - A large landslide caused by heavy rainfall hit Tana Toraja Regency in Indonesia’s South Sulawesi Province at 22:30 LT on April 13, 2024, leaving at least 18 people dead and 1 missing. According to the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) the landslide occurred at two points — in Lembang Randan Batu Village, South Makale District, and Manggau Village in Makale District. Abdul Muhari, the Head of BNPB Disaster Data, said their rapid assessment showed 6 homes in Manggau Village were destroyed and 1 in Lembang Randan Batu Village. The villages are located in a remote and hilly area. At least 18 people have been killed — 14 in Makale and 4 in South Makale — while one person remains missing, officials said early Monday morning, April 15, adding that a family gathering was held in one of the affected homes. Two injured people were found on April 14, including an 8-year-old girl. Muhari added the landslide had also caused the road to be difficult for vehicles to pass, so the emergency handling team had to walk to reach the location. In addition, the slide destroyed communication lines while bad weather and unstable soil hampered the rescue efforts. The local police chief said dozens of soldiers, police, and volunteers joined the search and rescue operations. SAR operations were temporarily suspended late Monday afternoon (LT), April 15 due to lack of lighting and cloudy weather accompanied by drizzle. Additionally, evacuation teams said there is a potential for aftermath landslides in the affected region. At least 77 residents have been temporarily evacuated to a temporary emergency checkpoint at a local church building. This entire region was under continuous heavy rainfall over the past week, eroding the soil on mountain slopes and leading to landslides.

Severe floods leave 58 dead, thousands of households affected in Tanzania - (news video) Heavy rainfall affecting Tanzania since the beginning of April, caused severe floods and landslides which resulted in at least 58 fatalities and thousands of households affected. The coastal regions of the country have been particularly hard hit, with devastating impacts on both human lives and agriculture.According to a government report issued on April 14, the floods have affected more than 10 000 households and damaged over 75 000 farms in the coastal and Morogoro areas, approximately 200 km (124 miles) west of Dar es Salaam. The Morogoro area alone has seen significant agricultural damage, critical for a region that relies heavily on farming for its economy and sustenance.At least 11 fatalities were reported in the Coast Region, 10 in the Rukwa Region, and 10 in the Arusha Region. In addition, 1 529 people have been displaced in eight evacuation centers, 2 278 people have been rescued, 126 831 people have been affected by floods, and at least 30 houses have been destroyed. The most affected areas are the Coast and Morogoro regions.On April 13, a tragic incident occurred when a school bus, carrying children, was swept into a flooded gorge in northern Tanzania, resulting in the deaths of eight schoolchildren. A volunteer participating in the rescue operations also died in the aftermath.The intensity of this year’s seasonal rains is attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon, which emerged in mid-2023. Meteorologists have warned that El Niño typically elevates global temperatures for one year afterward and alters weather patterns, leading to increased rainfall in some regions while causing droughts in others.The World Weather Attribution group has noted that the recent rainfall in East Africa is among the most intense ever recorded for the region.

Nearly 16 000 homes flooded in Russia, 111 200 evacuated in Kazakhstan - (2 videos) Catastrophic floods have submerged large areas of south-western Russia and north-western Kazakhstan since April 3, 2024. To date, floods have affected 15 641 homes and 27 993 garden plots in Russia, prompting widespread evacuations and the declaration of state emergencies in affected areas. Nearly 111 200 people were evacuated in Kazakhstan and approximately 5 500 homes were flooded. In Russia, the hardest-hit area remains the Orenburg Region, where over 15 000 residential properties and 23 600 garden plots face flood threats. A federal state of emergency helps manage the crisis, as the Ural River’s water levels near Orenburg have slightly receded to 11.6 m (38 feet) from a peak, still above the hazardous mark of 9.3 m (30.5 feet). Simultaneously, the Kurgan Region is experiencing rising waters with the Tobol River expected to reach 11 m (36 feet) by April 15 – 18, surpassing the 8.5 m (27.9 feet) danger level. Evacuation efforts in this region have moved over 12 700 residents to safer areas. In the Tyumen Region, authorities have proactively declared a state of emergency, anticipating further rises in the Tobol and Ishim rivers. This preemptive measure aims to safeguard over 1 800 houses in 51 settlements potentially in the path of the spring tide. YouTube video YouTube video Other affected Russian regions include Tomsk, where districts are under emergency protocols, and Novosibirsk, where flood risks persist. Buryatia has also reported significant flooding, affecting 35 household plots. Neighboring Kazakhstan is confronting similar challenges, with the Ministry of Emergency Situations confirming evacuations of nearly 111 200 people, over 6 800 of whom are in evacuation centers. The floods have damaged approximately 5 500 houses and affected about 180 roads and nine bridges across several regions including Akmola, Aktobe, and North Kazakhstan.

Finland’s Kalajoki Valley hit by floods, evacuations amid ice dam collapses - (video) Officials in Northern Ostrobothnia have issued flood warnings due to rising water levels in the Kalajoki River, impacting the municipalities of Ylivieska, Alavieska, and Kalajoki. Evacuations were conducted in Niemelänkylä, where three individuals were safely moved on Saturday night, 130 km (80 km) south of Oulu. In Northern Ostrobothnia, Finland, officials have raised alarms about potential severe flooding around the Kalajoki River as temperatures rise, causing snow and ice to thaw. Over the weekend, the river overflowed its banks, affecting the municipalities of Ylivieska, Alavieska, and Kalajoki. On Saturday night, April 13 due to the imminent threat, three residents were evacuated from Niemelänkylä, located approximately 130 km (80 miles) south of Oulu, though no injuries were reported. The North Ostrobothnia Rescue Service, in a recent press release, indicated that the floodwaters were expected to reach their peak on Sunday and Monday. However, the situation was complicated by ice dams that had formed within the river, making accurate flood predictions challenging. The situation escalated on Saturday afternoon when two of these ice dams in Alavieska collapsed, prompting further evacuations. Amidst the ongoing flood risks, the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) has forecasted continued mild weather for the region with rain or sleet likely on Sunday. Daytime temperatures on Sunday might reach up to 12 °C (53.6 °F) in some western areas, with North Ostrobothnia seeing highs of about 10 °C (50 °F). However, a significant drop in temperatures is expected by the end of the week, plunging to as low as -11 °C (12.2 °F) in North Ostrobothnia by Friday, April 19, which could see new snowfalls starting Tuesday evening, April 16. Yle meteorologist Nina Karusto noted that snow is also likely in southern parts of the country next week. The Flood Centre, a collaborative effort between the FMI and the Finnish Environment Institute (Syke), has issued amber alerts warning of local flooding in many parts of western Finland in the coming days, underscoring the severity of the current hydrological situation in the region.

Heavy rains trigger major flash floods across Oman - Heavy rainfall caused major flash floods across Oman on Sunday, April 14, 2024, leading to at least 13 fatalities and 3 people missing. Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall hit Oman on Sunday, April 14, causing major flash floods in several governorates including Muscat, North Al Batinah, South Al Batinah, South Al Sharqiyah, North Al Sharqiyah, Al Dhahirah, and Al Dakhiliyah. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries Wealth & Water Resources, Wadi Bani Khalid was the worst affected — with 145 mm (5.7 inches) of rainfall, followed by al Qabil with 91 mm (3.58 inches) in 24 hours to 08:00 LT on April 15. The Royal Oman Police reported multiple rescues of families and children trapped in Wadis due to the floods, while the Ministry of Higher Education, Scientific Research and Innovation ordered schools and colleges to operate remotely on Monday, April 15. According to Khaleej Times, Wadi Samad Al Shan witnessed an unprecedented surge in water levels and breached the premises of Rawda School located in the Al Ghazal area, trapping people inside the building. Vehicles parked nearby have been swept away by the floodwaters, the paper reported. 13 people were found dead while search efforts are still ongoing for three other people, including a child, the Civil Defence and Ambulance Authority (CDAA) reported early Monday morning. According to the National Committee for Emergency Management, the deceased include nine students, two residents, and an expatriate. The Committee had issued a warning about the potential escalation of unstable weather conditions ahead of the storm, which led to preemptive measures by the government and emergency services. The Oman Met Department forecasts continuous heavy rainfall on Monday, April 15. Authorities urged residents to follow official advisories and take necessary precautions to safeguard lives and properties.

Historic rainfall in UAE results in major flooding, traffic chaos in Dubai - (videos) On Tuesday, April 16, 2024, the UAE was struck by an exceptional weather event, with record-breaking rainfall reaching up to 254.8 mm (10 inches) in Al Ain, surpassing the country’s annual average in less than 24 hours. The National Centre of Meteorology (NMC) issued a red alert as the rains caused significant flooding, traffic disruptions, and at least one death in Dubai. This severe weather follows similar impacts in neighboring Oman, where 19 fatalities were reported. A red alert was issued across the UAE on April 16 due to an extraordinary rainfall event that resulted in severe flooding, traffic chaos and one reported fatality. The affected areas include Dubai, where disruptions have been extensive, including at Dubai International Airport, recently recognized as the second-busiest globally. The airport experienced substantial flooding, causing significant operational challenges and flight delays. The Khatm Al Shakla area in Al Ain recorded the highest rainfall, receiving 254.8 mm (10 inches) within 24 hours. This is the highest 24-hour rainfall in UAE since their record-keeping began in 1949. It’s also a figure that starkly contrasts with the UAE’s average annual rainfall of 140 – 200 mm (5.5 – 7.9 inches). Dubai typically receives about 97 mm (3.8 inches) annually, with April averages just around 8 mm (0.3 inches). A downpour like this was last seen in Sharjah — and it happened before the unification of the seven emirates, Dr. Ahmed Habib of the NCM told Khaleej Times. NMC data shows more than 50 stations have recorded rainfall higher than 100 mm (3.9 inches), and 4 stations have recorded rainfall higher than 200 mm (7.9 inches) from late Monday, April 15 to 22:00 LT on April 16. In Dubai, footage emerged showing vast areas of the tarmac underwater, with large aircraft navigating through floodwaters. This resulted in the cancellation and delay of numerous flights, including all Flydubai flights until the morning of April 17. Emirates also suspended check-in operations, citing adverse weather and unsafe road conditions. The torrential rain has led to widespread disruptions beyond the airport, affecting road traffic and public safety. Sheikh Zayed Road, a major highway in Dubai, saw severe flooding, with dozens of vehicles submerged and significant traffic delays. This has prompted government actions, including remote work directives for federal employees in Dubai and Sharjah, and a closure directive for private schools. Hundreds of people were stranded at Dubai Mall and Jebel Ali Metro Station, among other places. Electricity and water supply interruptions were reported in various neighborhoods across Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Particularly, the Muroor Area in Abu Dhabi experienced a blackout for over an hour due to the heavy rains and strong winds. A massive landslide struck the region of Al Qua in Al Ain, causing a gigantic crater-like collapse of a sandy road and significantly altering the course for drivers in the area. Many people on social networks claimed that cloud-seeding operations exacerbated the rains, however, Dr. Habib said no cloud-seeding is done during extreme weather conditions. The significant weather disturbance was primarily due to convective clouds forming over the region which triggered a series of weather events, leading to intense rainfall, he said. Warm, moist air originating from the Arabian Sea moved towards Oman and the UAE, while low-pressure conditions were prevalent in the upper atmosphere. This scenario increased humidity levels in the UAE, further intensified by surface heating and cooling at higher altitudes. The condensation of moisture in the warm air, combined with these atmospheric conditions, resulted in highly unstable weather. Habib said the UAE experienced more than four distinct weather waves, with the most severe wave occurring from late Tuesday afternoon to late night, bringing about significant rainfall.

A year's worth of rain plunges normally dry Dubai underwater — A year’s worth of rain unleashed immense flash flooding in Dubai Tuesday as roads turned into rivers and rushing water inundated homes and businesses. Shocking video showed the tarmac of Dubai International Airport – recently crowned the second-busiest airport in the world – underwater as massive aircraft attempt to navigate floodwaters. Large jets looked more like boats moving through the flooded airport as water sprayed in their wake and waves rippled through the deep water.The airport ceased operations for nearly a half hour on Tuesday. “Operations continue to be significantly disrupted,” the airport confirmed in an advisory. “There is major flooding on access roads around Dubai leading to the airport.”Nearly 4 inches (100 mm) of rain fell over the course of just 12 hours on Tuesday, according to weather observations at the airport – around what Dubai measures in an entire year, according to United Nations data.The rain fell so heavily and so quickly that some motorists were forced to abandon their vehicles as the floodwater rose and roads turned into rivers. Video from social media showed water rushing through an area mall and inundating the ground floor of homes. Dubai – like the rest of the United Arab Emirates – has a hot and dry climate. As such, rainfall is infrequent and the infrastructure is not in place to handle extreme events. When it rained Tuesday, it absolutely poured. Torrential rainfall events like this will become more frequent due to human-driven climate change. As the atmosphere continues to warm, it’s able to soak up more moisture like a towel and then ring it out in the form of more extreme gushes of flooding rainfall. The rain that plunged Dubai underwater is associated with a larger storm system traversing the Arabian Peninsula and moving across the Gulf of Oman. This same system is also bringing unusually wet weather to nearby Oman and southeastern Iran.

Slow recovery as Dubai airport, roads still plagued by floods Dubai's airport, one of the world's busiest, witnessed major disruption for the third day in a row on Thursday after the heaviest rains on record drenched the desert United Arab Emirates.Emirates, Dubai's state-owned flagship airline, and sister carrier flydubai resumed check-ins after telling passengers to stay away on Wednesday, when thousands of stranded passengers clogged the airport.Some 1,244 flights were cancelled and 41 diverted on Tuesday and Wednesday, aftertorrential rains flooded the Middle East financial center including its runways and highways.Traffic congestion remained severe on Thursday, two days after the storms, with at least one major highway completely blocked by water and multiple other junctions and routes also cut off by flooding.Dubai airport, which carries more international passengers than any other, has witnessed chaotic scenes with thousands of marooned travelers clamoring for information about their flights.Dubai Airports warned of a "high volume" of people at Terminal 3, which serves Emirates and flydubai, and urged passengers to stay away unless their departure was confirmed. "There may still be delays to arriving and departing flights," an Emirates statement said, warning that the "airport remains congested".

Did UAE's Cloud-Seeding Operation Flood Dubai? How it started with UAE's cloud seeding operations: (video)

• How it's going: Thread of best videos I've been sent of the current situation in Dubai from the storm. pic.twitter.com/sK6aRL6Jdu
• Not so well...#VIDEO: Severe rain and flooding in #Dubai today pic.twitter.com/9Auyq5MyDA— Saudi Gazette (@Saudi_Gazette) April 16, 2024 All inbound flights to Dubai International Airport were diverted on Tuesday evening. We are temporarily diverting arriving flights this evening until the weather conditions improve. Departures will continue to operate.Together with our partners, we’re working to restore normal operations and minimise inconvenience to you.Follow @DXB for further updates.
• "It's certainly not just cloud seeding. The convective clouds that are associated with the sorts of stormy weather we're facing form entirely naturally," UAE news website What's On said. 3" PWAT plenty for extreme tropical rains in Dubai regardless of cloud seeding pic.twitter.com/gn0NQxcoeT Perhaps the government playing God by fiddling with Mother Nature has unintended consequences...

Tornado outbreak in Midwest: SPC reports at least 17 tornadoes, 10 in Iowa and 4 in Nebraska - (7 YouTube videos) Severe thunderstorms swept across parts of the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, producing multiple damaging tornadoes. The NWS Storm Prediction Center reported at least 17 tornadoes — most of them in Iowa and Nebraska. The most notable among them was an EF2 tornado near Virgil, Kansas, which reached peak winds of 190 km/h (118 mph) and traveled a path 4.3 km (2.7 miles) long, causing severe damage to infrastructure, including steel structures. In Missouri, the area around Smithville in Clay County experienced damage to trees, and a mobile home was overturned, although fortunately, there were no injuries reported. The damage was estimated based on radar observations. Iowa was also significantly affected, with multiple locations reporting tornado activity. Notable incidents included damage to outbuildings and the scattering of debris such as sheet metal across fields in Dallas County, near Dallas Center and Minburn. Other counties in Iowa also reported various impacts, from structural damages in Henry County to sightings of rope tornadoes in Pocahontas County. Nebraska had several tornado reports coming from Platte and Colfax Counties. These included multiple touchdowns and re-formations of the tornado, particularly southwest of Platte Center, and damage to property such as a detached garage. Throughout these events, no fatalities were reported, but the tornadoes left at least 2 people injured in Kansas and a trail of damage across several communities. More than 20 000 customers were left without power on Tuesday evening across four states, with Missouri leading the way with more than half the outages. As of 06:43 UTC on April 16, Wisconsin had 5 028 customers without power, Missouri 4 800, and Iowa 1 258. The storm system responsible for the tornado outbreak is forecasted to move northeastward toward the Great Lakes by Wednesday afternoon, April 17. Along its path, it will bring rain and potential thunderstorms across the Corn Belt and extend southward to the Ozarks into early Wednesday (LT). NWS forecaster Fracasso emphasized that the front will continue eastward, with afternoon thunderstorms possible again ahead of the cold front over parts of the Midwest.

Exclusive video: A metal grain silo narrowly misses storm chaser in apparent tornado – Tense moments for FOX Weather Exclusive Storm Tracker Brandon Copic on Tuesday. As he was live on television, a possible tornado tore a grain silo from the ground and sent it right in front of his vehicle. He was chasing a tornado-warned storm near Salem, Iowa, when the apparent twister surprised him. FOX Weather meteorologists Kiyana Lewis and Bob Van Dillen sounded as surprised as Copic as they watched it unfold live.FOX Weather Exclusive Storm Tracker Brandon Copic got a little too close to a developing apparent tornado. Live on camera, winds tore the roof off a building and sent it flying in front of his car."It was an educated decision to get that close," Copic said. "I was seeing the main circulation was a little bit further away. The collar cloud was almost over top of me, so I knew the circulation of deviant motion would be close."According to NOAA, seeing a collar cloud is rare. It is a circular ring of clouds that surrounds the upper part of a wall cloud. Wall clouds are generally on the south or southwest side, or inflow, of thunderstorms that spawn tornadoes.Deviant tornado motion is a change in the tornado's path. A study published in theJournal of the American Meteorological Society said that it is uncommon, but some tornadoes take sudden left turns from their previous path, representing an extreme challenge for forecasters."He was seeing that deviating behavior, saw the overall storm moving in one direction," explained FOX Weather Meteorologist Steve Bender. "This came in from the rear flank downdraft, pushed in a new direction. Before he knew it, it was already moving on top of him."This is the view Copic saw from the windshield and the sounds he heard.

Ohio River expected to crest above flood stage through Monday morning impacting West Virginia communities — The National Weather Service says the Ohio River is expected to crest at Wheeling Saturday might at just below 39 feet, approximately three feet above flood stage. If that crest forecast holds true, that would be at the top end of what is considered minor flooding in Wheeling. Last week’s crest topped 41 feet and was considered moderate flooding. The southern portion of Wheeling Island began to flood Saturday morning. Ohio County Emergency Management Director Lou Vargo said residents who have just finished cleaning up flooded basements on Wheeling Island will be faced with doing it again. Hollywood Casino at Wheeling Island closed Friday until further notice. The casino does have a handful of workers on site. Vargo said the Wheeling area picked up around 1.5 inches of rain Thursday night into Friday morning. Further north, there was flooding in the Pittsburgh area that dumped more water into the Ohio River. More than six inches of rain has been recorded in Pittsburgh since April 1. The Ohio is expected to crest at Moundsville Saturday night at 41.4 feet about four feet above flood stage. That level would be considered moderate flooding. Marshall County Emergency Services Director Tom Hart said the riverfront area of Moundsville will likely take on water. The river will also likely cause problems up river at Benwood, Hart said. The National Weather Service in Charleston said Saturday that the Ohio River at Parkersburg is expected to crest in moderate flood stage Sunday morning at 38.9 feet. The floodgates were used at Parkersburg last week while areas outside the floodwall took on water. The same can be expected with the new crest. Point Pleasant may see a higher Ohio River than it did last week. The National Weather Service predicted Saturday morning the river would crest at 44.6 feet Sunday night at 8 o’clock. That’s four feet above flood stage and considered moderate flooding. Point Pleasant doesn’t install its floodgates until the river reaches 45 feet. Forecasters say the Ohio will crest at 50.6 feet at Huntington Monday morning which is just above flood stage, putting the crest in the minor category.

Ohio River near Pittsburgh is closed as crews search for missing barge, one of 26 that broke loose -- A stretch of the Ohio River near Pittsburgh remained closed to maritime traffic on Monday as crews equipped with sonar looked for a barge believed to have sunk over the weekend — one of more than two dozen barges that broke loose and floated down the rain-swollen river.The U.S. Coast Guard launched an investigation into how 26 river barges got loose from their moorings late Friday, striking a bridge and smashing a pair of marinas. All but three of the barges were loaded with coal, fertilizer and other dry cargo.No injuries were reported and no hazardous materials spilled into the river, according to Pittsburgh police and Coast Guard officials, but the river was expected to remain off limits to mariners while the barges’ owner formulated a plan to salvage its runaway vessels.Coast Guard investigators were looking at high water as a possible cause or factor, said Cmdr. Justin Jolley of the Coast Guard marine safety unit in Pittsburgh. The area had been hit by flooding after heavy rains Thursday. High water can pose a risk for tied barges, which occasionally break loose on the Ohio, said Alan Nogy, operations project manager of locks and dams at the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Pittsburgh District.“That current can pull on them and that would be the biggest hazard, the power of the water could cause a situation like we have here now. We were on back-to-back high water events, so that doesn’t give industry a lot of time to shore things up if they thought they had to because we never really had a break,” he said.Nogy spoke by phone from the Emsworth Locks and Dam, where seven barges were still stuck. Another barge was pinned against the Dashields Locks and Dam, several miles downstreamOne barge remained unaccounted for on Monday and was believed to be submerged. “We’re optimistic we’ll be able to locate where that barge is today or tomorrow and then we can mark it accordingly and restore navigation,” Jolley, of the Coast Guard, said Monday. “I think we were very fortunate given the circumstances here that there were no injuries or threats to life, no pollution and so far no major reports of damage to infrastructure to Army Corps locks and dams,” he said.The runaway barges were owned or operated by Campbell Transportation Co. Company officials were on site Monday morning and were not immediately available for comment. Barges wrecked dozens of boat slips at the Branchport Boat Club.“It is like losing a member of the family. Now we won’t be able to open for business this year,” club manager Tony Ravida told the Tribune-Review.Peggy’s Harbor, a family-owned marina on the Ohio River in Pittsburgh, also sustained significant damage. One of the loose barges struck the Sewickley Bridge, which police had shut down Saturday afternoon as the vessel approached. An inspection revealed no significant damage, and the bridge was reopened to traffic, according to Steve Cowan, of the state Department of Transportation.

Company believes it found sunken barge in Ohio River near Pittsburgh, one of 26 that got loose - A barge operator believes it has found a sunken barge in the Ohio River near Pittsburgh, one of 26 that broke loose and floated away during weekend flooding, company officials said Tuesday.Crews used sonar to locate an object in a stretch of river north of the city, which Campbell Transportation Co. said it presumes to be its missing barge.The river remained closed to maritime traffic while the company worked to salvage the runaway barges.Cmdr. Justin Jolley, of the U.S. Coast Guard’s marine safety unit in Pittsburgh, said Tuesday that once the object in the river is confirmed to be the missing barge, “we’re hopeful we can reduce the security zone to that area and allow traffic to resume.”Seventeen of the barges are secure and under control, while seven remain positioned against the Emsworth Locks and Dam and one is pinned against the Dashields Locks and Dam, the company said.“We are actively developing a recovery plan for all affected vessels, which will be implemented when safe for the recovery workers, barges and the public,” said Gary Statler, the company’s senior vice president for river operations.Jolley said Campbell began retrieving barges pinned against the Emsworth dam on Tuesday morning. The Coast Guard is investigating how the barges got loose from their moorings late Friday, striking a bridge and smashing a pair of marinas. All but three of the barges were loaded with coal, fertilizer and other dry cargo. Statler said the barges broke loose “under high water conditions on the rivers, resulting in strong currents due to flooding in the area.”

Homes damaged, roadways closed after tornado touches down in Portage County — Severe storms ripped through Northeast Ohio Wednesday evening, causing numerous watches and warnings to be issued for the area. A tornado touched down in Windham, which is located in Portage County. The tornado caused damage to isolated homes and caused roadways to be closed. Ralph Spidalieri, Chief Deputy with the Portage Co. Sheriff's Department, told News 5 that the high winds caused a significant number of downed power lines, electric service outages and roadside hazards. “Being as dark as it it is right now and with very minimal traffic lights, the ones that are here aren’t working because there’s no power here," Spidalieri said. “We’ve closed off all the main routes that feed into this area, so what we’re trying to say is that if your a resident stay inside right now if you can, don’t get out and try to walk it because we do have a lot of wires down right now.” The tornado touchdown caused eastbound lanes of the Ohio Turnpike near Bryant Road to be closed for several hours after two 18-wheelers toppled over due to the storms. Traffic flow has been restored, but some delays are still possible during the early morning hours of April 18. Windham Police said there were no injuries in the crash or in any homes that they know of as Portage County Sheriff's Deputies went house-to-house checking to make sure everyone was alright. Chris Strahler and his family, who live on Windham-Parkman road, said they witnessed a funnel cloud and barely had enough time to get into their basement as the storm moved in. “It's mind blowing, after she said get down stairs I came out to see what see was talking about, looked out the window and I saw a little bit of the tornado off to the side.” Crews with the Ravenna Fire Department helped to assist Windham's fire and police departments.

Two possible tornadoes reported to have touched down in Trumbull County -- Two tornadoes have potentially touched down during the severe weather storms that rolled through the valley. The incidents happened on the 6000 block of Mahoning Avenue and Oak Hill Drive in Champion. Both are reported to have touched down around 7:17 p.m., according to Trumbull County Dispatch. They are not active anymore, according to dispatch. 21 News has received several reports of damage in Champion, including a trampoline wrapped around a telephone pole. Meanwhile, Windham, near the Portage and Trumbull county line, has seen extensive damage as a result from the storms. This includes several downed trees and even a side of a house being ripped off. At this time, it's not 100% confirmed by the National Weather Service but they will survey the damage caused by reported touchdowns tomorrow.

Significant damage reported in Ohio after severe thunderstorms roar through Great Lakes – Wednesday marked the third straight day of severe weather across the northern tier of the country as a cold front marked the demarcation of where air masses clashed. Damage from hail, gusty winds and tornadoes was reported throughout the eastern Great Lakes, but the greatest concentration of impacts appeared to be in northern Ohio. Communities across the Buckeye State were placed under Tornado Warnings as the storms worked from west to east across the state. Tornado Watches were also issued for cities such as Cleveland and Columbus, as well as Pittsburgh in Pennsylvania, which continued until well after sunset. Significant damage was reported by local authorities in the town of Bucyrus in northern Ohio. Police advised residents to stay off the roads while crews attended to debris and downed power lines. A resident told FOX Weather she was one of five people inside a Family Dollar store when the roof partially collapsed during a storm's strong winds. Video taken after the cell moved through showed extensive damage to the store. Similar images of damage were taken around the town, and PowerOutage.us estimated that more than 20% of Crowford County was without electricity.The National Weather Service office in Cleveland is tasked with surveying damage from Wednesday's storm to determine the number of tornadoes that impacted the region and their strength on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Significant damage was also reported in Windham Township, which is about a two-hour drive from Bucyrus. Portage County Emergency Management said at least one tornado touched down in the community and damage assessments were underway Wednesday evening. Despite the widespread damage, no injuries were reported associated with the tornadic activity in Northeast Ohio.At least 17 tornadoes were reported in the Midwest on Tuesday, seven of which have already been confirmed by National Weather Service storm surveys. The strongest twister so far received an EF-2 rating south of Virgil, Kansas. Another tornado that struck south of Topeka, Kansas, injured at least two people when their RV was flipped over.

US’s most endangered rivers are in New Mexico: Report - The rivers of New Mexico are the most threatened waterways in the country, according to a recently released report by advocacy group American Rivers. The report ranks the Top 10 most endangered waterways in the United States, noting that pollution, climate change, and reduced clean water protections all contribute to their decline. American Rivers cited the Supreme Court decision last May in Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency for the reason rivers across the entire state of New Mexico were ranked first on the list. The ruling limits how the Environmental Protection Agency can enforce provisions under the Clean Water Act for streams, rivers and wetlands. As part of the ruling, protections were scrapped for waterways that only run during the rainy season or periods of the year due to snowmelt, according to the report. In arid states like New Mexico, rivers and streams typically flow only during certain times of the year. The decision also stripped away protections for “isolated” wetlands, which are not physically connected to streams or surface water bodies and also exist in the state. On top of this, the report cites a 2006 Supreme Court decision that rolled back protections to closed basins as another reason for the state’s top spot on the list. “These rulings fly in the face of established science and ignore the value that small streams and wetlands have to their broader watersheds, communities and economies, particularly in places with dry climates like New Mexico,” according to the report. Here are the most endangered rivers in the U.S., according to America’s Most Endangered Rivers 2024 report:

1. Rivers of New Mexico
2. Big Sunflower and Yazoo rivers, Mississippi
3. Duck River, Tennessee
4. Santa Cruz River, Arizona
5. Little Pee Dee River, South Carolina and North Carolina
6. Farmington River, Connecticut and Massachusetts
7. Trinity River, California
8. Kobuk River, Alaska
9. Tijuana River, California
10. Blackwater River, West Virginia

Last month was Earth's warmest March on record | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - Press Release (April 16th) - March 2024 officially became the warmest in NOAA’s 175-year global climate record. Record warm temperatures covered 10.85% of the world’s surface while there were no areas that experienced record cold temperatures. With a global surface temperature of 2.43°F (1.35°C) above average, this was the 10th consecutive month of global record-setting temperatures. March 2024 was the warmest March on record for the globe in NOAA’s 175-year record. The March global surface temperature was 1.35°C (2.43°F) above the 20th-century average of 12.7°C (54.9°F). This is 0.01°C ( °F) warmer than the previous March record set in 2016, and the tenth consecutive month of record-high global temperatures. March 2024 marked the 48th consecutive March with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th-century average.Global land-only March temperatures ranked fourth-warmest on record at 2.09°C (3.76°F) above average. Ocean-only temperatures ranked warmest on record for March at 1.01°C (1.82°F) above average. This is 0.18°C (0.32°F) warmer than the second warmest March of 2016, and the 12th-consecutive monthly record high. These temperatures occurred as the current El Niño episode nears its end. El Niño conditions that emerged in June 2023 weakened further in March, and according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a transition from El Niño to ENSO–neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with odds of La Niña developing by June–August 2024 (60% chance).Temperatures were much-above average to record warm throughout much of South America, Africa and western and central Europe. Temperatures were also much warmer-than-average across large parts of the northeastern quadrant of the U.S. and eastern Canada (where monthly anomalies exceeded +3.0°C in many areas). Much warmer-than-average tempertures also occurred in parts of Southwest Asia, central and eastern China, much of the eastern half of Australia, parts of far eastern Russia as well as large parts of West Antarctica. As was the case in February, sea surface temperatures were again above average across much of the northern, western, and equatorial Pacific Ocean. Record-warm March temperatures covered much of the tropical Atlantic Ocean as well as parts of the southern Atlantic and northwestern Indian Ocean. Record warm temperatures covered 10.8% of the world’s surface this month.March temperatures were cooler than the 1991–2020 average across much of the western U.S., south-central Canada, northern Iceland and surrounding waters of the North Atlantic, and northwestern parts of Siberia. Temperatures also were below-average in large parts of western Australia and East Antarctica, and slightly cooler-than-average temperatures stretched from Afghanistan to northeastern parts of India. Sea surface temperatures were below average in the southeastern Pacific and parts of the Southern Ocean. There were no areas of record cold temperatures in March.In the Northern Hemisphere, March 2024 ranked second warmest on record at 1.68°C (3.02°F) above average, cooler than the March 2016 record of 1.82°C (3.28°F). The Northern Hemisphere land temperature was seventh warmest while the ocean temperature ranked warmest on record for the month. The Southern Hemisphere experienced its warmest March on record at 1.01°C (1.82°F) above average. Both the Southern Hemisphere land temperature and ocean temperature also ranked warmest on record for March.

Heat records shattered in northern Japan - Many heat records have been shattered in northern Japan with the start of the new week. On Sunday, April 14, several places in Hokkaido had highs of over 25 °C (77 °F), marking the earliest occurrence of such temperatures in the island’s recorded history. Ikeda, for example, reached 26.4 °C (79.5 °F) — presenting a significant deviation of 15 °C (27 °F) above normal and surpassing even mid-summer average temperatures. In Sapporo, the high reached 26.1 °C (79 °F) on Monday, April 15, marking the earliest occurrence of temps of ≧25 °C (77 °F) since records began in 1877, meteorologist Sayaka Mori reports. On Tuesday, April 16, Takinoue registered 28.5 °C (83.3 °F), marking the earliest 28 °C (82.4 °F) ever measured in Hokkaido. It came 5 days earlier than the previous record set on April 21, 1998. On the same day, cherry blossoms began blooming on the southern tip of Hokkaido — marking the 2nd earliest occurrence on record.

At nearly 40C, Mumbai sizzles on its hottest day in a decade --Mumbai yesterday recorded a maximum temperature of 39.7C, “making it the city’s hottest day in April the past decade” and “an anomalous rise of nearly 6.5C above the normal”, the Indian Express reports. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has declared an orange “severe heatwave” alert for the city and its neighbouring districts, telling the newspaper that “the sudden spike of temperatures this week is a harbinger of what lies in store for the city”, with more heatwaves “likely to sweep the entire state this summer”. Meanwhile, analysis by the Hindustan Times finds that India’s 2024 election season coincides with nearly the hottest part of the year for two-thirds of all political constituencies. According to the story, forecasts suggest that 66 constituencies going in to vote starting on Friday could see a maximum temperature of 35C or higher, of which 10 might experience temperatures over 40C. “Two groups of people are the most vulnerable – [the] general public, which includes those [suffering from more than one illness] and the elderly – [and] election workers,” said Dr Dileep Mavlankar, who heads the Indian Institute of Public Health, speaking to the paper. While the “quality and implementation” of heat action plans have varied across India, researchers have submitted a new “model heat action plan” to India’s disaster authorities to guide states and cities, the Times of India reports. Separately, Down to Earth covers a new study that finds that women in India are “significantly more vulnerable” to extreme heat compared to men, but says that the lack of “concrete conclusions” on why is a “perfect example of the data equity gap”, particularly in global south countries.

Global heating pushes coral reefs towards worst planet-wide mass bleaching on record --There is widespread media coverage of the confirmation by scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that the ongoing global mass coral bleaching event is on track to be the most extensive on record. The Guardian says it is the fourth such event since the first occurred in 1998. The newspaper adds: “Some 54% of ocean waters containing coral reefs have experienced heat stress high enough to cause bleaching, NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch said. A global bleaching event is declared when at least 12% of corals in each of the main ocean basins – Pacific, Atlantic and Indian – experience bleaching-level heat stress within a 12-month period. The declaration also requires confirmed reports of bleaching. Coral Reef Watch also confirmed the world’s largest coral reef system – Australia’s Great Barrier Reef– had been through its most widespread heat stress event on record in 2024. The first global bleaching event happened in 1998 with 20% of the ocean’s reef corals exposed to a level of heat stress high enough to cause bleaching. The second event, in 2010, saw 35% reaching that threshold, and the third from 2014 to 2017 peaked at 56%.” The New York Times says “at least 53 countries and local regions have experienced mass bleaching across the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans”, adding that NOAA says the “intensity and regularity has also ramped up in the last two decades”. Derek Manzello, coordinator of the NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch programme, tells the Times: “This should be viewed as another very urgent global warning on the state of ocean health.” The newspaper also quotes Prof Terry Hughes, of James Cook University, Australia, who says the “levels of heat stress measured in Florida, across the entire Caribbean, and now on the Great Barrier Reef are off the charts”. Sky News,BBC News, CNN and Reuters are among the other outlets covering the story.Reuters has also published an explainer on what the coral bleaching event “means” and “what can be done”.

Scientists Warn Gulf Stream Slowdown Could Begin as Early as 2025 - There were two pieces of recent news which highlight why what was once most often referred to as global warming is now called climate change. Yes, the globe is heating up. But effects vary depending on where you live for various reasons. First, a report from India calls out problems with the criteria used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue a heatwave warning: The criteria do NOT consider humidity, only temperature. Anyone who lives in a hot climate or any climate that includes hot summer days knows that humidity can make a huge difference in whether one can stay cool in hot weather. It turns out that the IMD criteria fail to recognize that temperatures below what is considered a heatwave may be just as dangerous to human health when humidity is high and even be downright life-threatening. In short, India is already experiencing conditions that at times are at or near the limits of human suvivability.The vast majority of humans—even with an unlimited supply of water—would likely die after a few hours in conditions that exceed 95 degrees in very high humidity, what is called wet-bulb temperatures because they represent a wet towel around the bulb of a thermometer. This web-bulb temperature is supposed to mimic the way that humans cool themselves through perspiration. At very high humidity, it becomes hard to get perspiration on the skin to evaporate which is what allows for cooling of the body. Such conditions are unbearable without technology like air conditioning and make outdoor labor near impossible,” according to the ScienceNews article linked above.A second story this week warns temperatures might go in the opposite direction in one area of the globe as a direct result of the warming of the Greenland ice sheet, increased rainfall attributed to climate change, and dropping salinity in the tropical waters where the Gulf Stream arises.The Gulf Stream, also known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), moves heat from the tropics, along the U.S. coast, then across the Atlantic to the British Isles and turns back and north to Iceland and Greenland. There, having lost much of its heat, it turns downward into the Atlantic depths to between 6,000 to 9,000 feet and begins a journey back to the equator and along South America.Just how much heat does the Gulf Stream move? Some 50 times the energy used by all of human civilization. This explains why Northern Europe—a branch of the AMOC flows toward Scandanavia as well—and Iceland are much warmer than their high latitudes would suggest. If the energy transfer were to slow dramatically or stop, it would almost certainly plunge these areas into a much colder climate regime, one for which they are not currently prepared.The basic idea was illustrated in an exaggerated way in the film “The Day After Tomorrow”. The speed of the transformation from moderate climate into frozen wasteland takes one week in the film. It should be concerning, however, that past collapses of the AMOC have taken place in a decade.Scientists have been tracking the AMOC since 2004 and believe it is slowing. When researchers discovered in their calculations and modeling that the AMOC might start its next collapse as early as 2025, they couldn’t believe it. They rechecked the results, and the conclusion was confirmed. Their model suggests that the current could begin collapsing anywhere from 2025 to 2095. (Some scientists pointed out the considerable uncertainties in the model, a legitimate criticism. My response: Shall those in the path of potential destruction simply wait and do nothing until the model can be better confirmed? If so, how long should they wait?)The range cited above is not that wide even from a human perspective. And, it suggests once again that the catastrophic effects of climate change aren’t merely going to be someone else’s problem in the distant future. In the coming decades humans could be migrating away from catastrophes which either make life too hot to be bearable…or too cold—both due to climate change.

Multiple high-level eruptions at Ruang volcano force evacuation of entire island, Indonesia - The WatchersA series of powerful eruptions took place at Ruang volcano in Indonesia’s North Sulawesi province starting at 17:08 UTC on April 16, 2024 (01:08 LT, April 17). As a result, the Aviation Color Code was raised to Red, and local authorities started evacuating more than 800 people living on the island as a preventive measure. The last eruptive episode at this volcano was in September 2002 (VEI 4). Authorities have raised the alert level to the second highest level (3 of 4), Heruningtyas Desi Purnamasari, an official at Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (PVMBG) said, adding that the eruptions were triggered by recent earthquakes on the island. “We must clear the island [population ~838] because we anticipate there could be more eruptions. No activity is allowed within 4 km (2.5 miles) from the crater,” she said. According to the Darwin VAAC Volcanic Ash Advisory released at 18:50 UTC, a volcanic ash plume to 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level detached from the summit and was expected to dissipate within 9 – 12 hours. Meanwhile, volcanic ash to 3 km (10 000 feet) a.s.l. — moving SW — is expected to dissipate within 6 hours. Darwin VAAC advisory released at 23:13 UTC mentions volcanic ash plume rising to 13.7 km (45 000 feet) a.s.l. and moving W/NW, while low-level eruptions to 5 and 1.5 km (15 000 and 5 000 feet) a.s.l. continue at the volcano. At 15:10 UTC, the volcanic ash cloud reached 16.7 km (55 000 feet) a.s.l. The last eruptive episode at the volcano took place from September 25 to 29, 2002, and had an estimated Volcanic Explosivity Index of 4. Ruang is the southernmost volcano in the Sangihe Island arc, north of Sulawesi Island; it is not the better-known Raung volcano on Java. The 4 x 5 km (2.5 x 3.1 miles) island volcano is across a narrow strait SW of the larger Tagulandang Island. Its summit contains a crater partially filled by a lava dome initially emplaced in 1904. Explosive eruptions recorded since 1808 have often been accompanied by lava dome formation and pyroclastic flows that have damaged inhabited areas.

Asteroid 2024 HA flew past Earth at just 0.040 LD - the closest flyby of the year and 20th closest on record - A newly-discovered asteroid designated 2024 HA flew past Earth at a distance of just 0.04 LD / 0.00010 AU (15 550 km / 9 662 miles) at 17:42 UTC on April 16, 2024. This is the 31st asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance (LD) since the start of the year and the 7th so far this month. This is also the closest flyby of the year, followed by 2024 GJ2 at 0.049 LD on April 11 and 2024 EJ4 at 0.068 LD on March 13. Looking at the database since the year 1900, 2024 HA marks the 20th closest approach on record. This object was first observed at Pan-STARRS 2, Haleakala, Hawaii at 10:41 UTC on April 16 — 7 hours before the flyby. It belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 1.2 and 2.6 m (3.9 – 8.5 feet).

Piece of largest object ever jettisoned from ISS crashes into Florida home, U.S. - In March 2021, NASA ground controllers deployed the International Space Station’s (ISS) robotic arm to discard a cargo pallet (EP-9) containing obsolete nickel hydride batteries, following upgrades to lithium-ion units. This operation set a record for the heaviest item jettisoned from the ISS. While the entire pallet was expected to disintegrate before reaching Earth’s surface, a fragment of this hardware survived atmospheric re-entry and struck a residence in Naples, Florida, in March 2024. A significant incident occurred last month when a piece of space debris, jettisoned from the International Space Station in 2021 as part of its power system upgrade, unexpectedly impacted a home in Naples, Florida.The debris, a 0.7 kg (1.6 pounds) stanchion made from Inconel, represents the first case of such a large mass surviving the atmospheric re-entry since the station began operations.Originally, the discarded hardware, weighing approximately 2 630 kg (5 800 pounds), included aging nickel hydride batteries replaced by more efficient lithium-ion batteries. NASA spokesperson Leah Cheshier highlighted in March 2021 that this jettisoned object was the heaviest ever released from the ISS, surpassing the mass of the Early Ammonia Servicing System tank discarded during the STS-118 mission in 2007.The EP-9 equipment pallet re-entered Earth’s atmosphere at 19:29 UTC on March 8 over the Gulf of Mexico between Cancun and Cuba. “This was within the previous prediction window but a little to the northeast of the ‘most likely’ part of the path. A couple of minutes later reentry and it would have reached Ft Myers,” astronomer Jonathan McDowell said.However, little did we know at the time that a piece of the object survived and hit a home in Naples, Florida.After learning about the unexpected debris impact, NASA cooperated with the affected homeowner to secure and analyze the piece.The examination at Kennedy Space Center confirmed the debris as a stanchion previously used to mount batteries on the cargo pallet. Measuring 10 cm (4 inches) in height and 4 cm (1.6 inches) in diameter, this object’s survival after re-entry prompted NASA to initiate a thorough investigation into the incident. The owner of the impacted home, Alejandro Otero, told WINK television he was on vacation when the object impacted his home and was told by his son what had happened. Otero came home early to check on the house, finding the object had ripped through his ceiling and torn up the flooring.“It was a tremendous sound. It almost hit my son. He was two rooms over and heard it all,” Otero said.“I was shaking. I was completely in disbelief. What are the chances of something landing on my house with such force to cause so much damage,” Otero said. “I’m super grateful that nobody got hurt.”

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm levels forecast as two more CMEs approach Earth - Solar wind parameters in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on April 17, 2024, continued to be enhanced by a passing coronal mass ejection (CME) which impacted Earth around 17:25 UTC on April 15 (launched from the Sun on April 12). Two more CMEs, produced on April 14 and 15, are expected to make a combined impact at around 00:00 UTC on April 18. Total magnetic field strength was mostly between 7-13 nT. The Bz component was predominantly southward, with a maximum deflection of -12 nT, while the solar wind speeds remained low, ranging between 350 – 400 km/s for most of the day. Solar wind conditions are expected to trend towards nominal levels mid-day to late on April 17. Early on April 18, additional enhancements are expected due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on April 14 and 15. Waning CME conditions are likely on April 19. Under the CME influence, the geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to G1 – Minor levels over the same period. The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to G2 – Moderate storm levels early on April 17 with continued CME influences. G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on April 18 due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs that left the Sun on April 14 and 15. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on April 19 as CME influence wanes. Solar activity was at moderate levels through 00:30 UTC today. Region 3643 (beta-gamma) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1.1/2n (R1 – Minor) at 18:02 UTC on April 16. Region 3643 along with Region 3639 (beta-gamma-delta) exhibited the most growth on the visible disk. Newly numbered Region 3644 (beta) rotated onto the visible disk from the E limb while additional spots were observed rotating around the E limb.Additional activity included an approximately 10-degree filament eruption near S50E25 beginning after 19:00 UTC on April 16 but further coronagraph imagery is needed to analyze any CME associated with the event, SWPC forecasters said. Solar activity is forecast to be moderate, with M-class flares likely (65%) and a slight chance for an X-class flare (15%) through April 19.

Fiery natural gas pipeline rupture in Yellowhead County prompts Alberta Wildfire response - A wildfire that sparked Tuesday after a pipeline ruptured west of Edmonton is now under control. A pipeline reportedly exploded west of Edmonton late Tuesday morning, sending up a large plume of flames and smoke that was visible from many kilometres away. It happened around 11 a.m. in Yellowhead County, northwest of Edson and northeast of Hinton along Emerson Creek Road. The fire was visible from a considerable distance, including along Highway 16. There are several gas plants and gas wells in that region and the natural gas pipeline in question is operated by TC Energy. The energy company said it responded to a pipeline rupture involving it’s NOVA Gas Transmission Ltd. Grande Prairie Mainline, approximately 40 kilometres northwest of Edson in Yellowhead County. “TC Energy received notification about this incident at approximately 11 a.m. MT and immediately activated our emergency response procedures,” a statement said, adding the company was co-ordinating with first responders. The NGTL is TC Energy’s natural gas gathering and transportation system for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The system transports natural gas from Alberta and northeast B.C. to domestic and export markets. The system spans 24,631 kilometres and connects with TC Energy’s Canadian Mainline system, Foothills system and other third-party pipelines. Alberta Wildfire said surrounding trees caught fire after the pipeline ruptured and natural gas caught fire, so it was also responding to the blaze north of Obed Lake. There were eight pieces of heavy equipment, 12 wildland firefighters and additional resources from Yellowhead County and industry at the incident, Alberta Wildfire said in a 3 p.m. update on the fire labelled as EWF015. Airtankers and helicopters were also working with the firefighters but the time of year presented a challenge, said Alberta Wildfire information officer Caroline Charbonneau. “One of the conditions that are making it difficult right now is that there is no available water because the lakes are frozen. So the air tankers have to fill at the tanker base, and the helicopter can’t necessarily bucket,” she said. “Fortunately, we have water trucks at the site and we’re also very fortunate that there’s really good road access.” The fire is about 28 kilometres north-northeast of Obed Lake, 35 kilometres northwest of Edson and 55 kilometres northeast of Hinton, the province said. The wildfire could be seen from Highway 40 north and Highway 16. Alberta Wildfire and the county said they were working together, along with industry staff, to extinguish the remaining wildland fire. In an update at 7 p.m. Tuesday, Alberta Wildfire said the blaze was being held. Crews were expected to be at the scene on Wednesday to extinguish the wildfire. “The wildfire does not pose a threat to any community,” Alberta Wildfire said in its update. Just before noon, the province’s wildfire dashboard said the fire was around 10 hectares in size. “Firefighters are fairly confident that this fire is not going to escape — except we really don’t know what the weather is going to be like,” Charbonneau said. “We have some storms moving in which could create wind. But what I can say is that no communities are threatened at this time.” Alberta RCMP said it received a call about the incident just after 11:30 a.m. and both Mounties and Yellowhead County fire crews were responding to the rural scene. The affected section of pipeline has been isolated and shut down, both TC Energy and the county confirmed, and there was no more gas leaking. “An initial ignition of natural gas at the rupture site is now extinguished. We are working to support Alberta Wildfire in their response to contain a secondary fire,” TC Energy said later in the afternoon. The pipeline is under the jurisdiction of the Canadian Energy Regulator. The federal body said it was sending inspectors to the area to monitor and oversee the company’s response and determine the impact of the incident. TC Energy said it would be co-operating with the investigation. On Wednesday, the CER said preliminary information indicated the 36-inch natural gas pipeline ruptured around 10:45 a.m. Tuesday, causing the small wildfire on Crown land. The CER said all TC Energy personnel working nearby were safely evacuated. The company reported the explosion to nearby communities, and there were no direct impacts to landowners or Indigenous communities. The company is working with local authorities and has activated its emergency response plan, the CER said. The agency noted within the same utilities right-of-way cutline there are also two other TC Energy pipelines — a 42-inch and a 48-inch — that remain operational at a reduced pressure, and TC Energy said there are no supply impacts because of the rupture. The reason for the initial explosion is still being investigated. There were no injuries. The wildfire risk in that part of Alberta was categorized as moderate on Tuesday, and a fire advisory remains in effect. “It’s really important for folks to realize that the conditions are very dry and the grass is very dry,” Charbonneau said. “So any spark, friction or hot exhaust could easily start a wildfire. And if the wind conditions are there, it could burn very quickly.” TC Energy said the remainder of the NGTL system is operating normally and there are no commercial impacts at this time.

Water bubbling to surface after mine subsidences — 28/22 News is working to find out if water bubbling up from the ground near a popular Wilkes-Barre park is mine water. This has all happening since two mine subsidences happened since Sunday, one in Luzerne Borough involving Toby Creek and another on Hughes Street in Swoyersville. After a viewer tipped us off, 28/22 News Reporter Madonna Mantione went to Wilkes-Barre to check out the bright brown water bubbling up in Kirby Park. The viewer called after watching previous stories from 28/22 News on the suspected mine water discoveries in Swoyersville and Forty Fort. Pennsylvania American Water says the ponding on Tripp Street in Forty Fort is not a water main break. The water is bubbling out near a pipe that is believed to go down into the underground mines. The water has a sulfur smell and there is a sheen to it. There is a similar situation happening nearby on Simpson Street in Swoyersville. Water with an orange tint that also smells like sulfur is bubbling up in the street.28/22 News spoke to a neighbor who lives near the scene in Forty Fort.“In the 45 years, we’ve only seen this fill-up, pond with water, this would be the second time. But this is by far the worst, ever,” said Forty Fort resident Emily Dadurka.28/22 News has called both Wilkes-Barre and EMA asking if there is a connection between this water and other spots in Luzerne County where mine water is bubbling up.This is a developing story and 28/22 News will provide updates as new information becomes available.

Antis Successfully Chase Away $1.1B PA Plastics Recycling Plant - Marcellus Drilling News - Exactly a year ago, MDN brought you the good news that a company based in Houston, Texas called Encina (not to be confused with Encino Energy, which drills for natural gas and oil in Ohio) was proposing to build a $1.1 billion plastics recycling plant along the Susquehanna River in Northumberland County, PA — about 60 miles north of Harrisburg (see Antis Oppose $1.1B Plastics Recycling Plant in Northumberland, PA). Unlike other advanced recycling plants in the U.S., Encina said that none of the material produced at the Northumberland plant would be sold as diesel fuel, synthetic oil, or other forms of fossil fuels. The material from the plant would only be used to make other (new) plastic products. Yet the plant faced opposition from irrational anti-plastic/anti-fossil fuel zealots. The opposition succeeded. Yesterday, Encina said it is killing the Northumberland project and will instead build plants in other places that actually want them.

Biden set to deny approval for mining company’s road through Alaskan wilderness - The Biden administration will deny federal approval to a metallurgical mining company’s proposed industrial road through parts of northwestern Alaska, two sources familiar with the process confirmed to The Hill. One of the sources, who asked to speak on background, confirmed that the official statement of “no action” from the Interior Department could come as soon as Wednesday. The proposed project, the Ambler Access Project, would span more than 200 miles, including federally-owned land, meaning it requires the Interior Department’s signoff. The road would be used exclusively by Ambler Metals to access the site of large copper deposits. The outgoing Trump Interior Department approved the project in late 2020, but shortly after taking office, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland ordered a review of the approval process. It is backed by the state’s two Republican senators, Sens. Lisa Murkowski and Dan Sullivan, as well as its congressional representative, Rep. Mary Peltola (D). However, it is vocally opposed by local tribal leaders, who have said it would pose a threat to local wildlife and fisheries that Native Alaskans rely on.

A Highway in Indiana Could One Day Charge Your EV While You’re Driving It - Inside Climate News - Blake Dollier spoke excitedly as he watched the construction crews pulverize concrete along a quarter-mile stretch of U.S. Highway 52 where it passes through West Lafayette, Indiana.Soon, the Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), where Dollier works as the public relations director, will install a series of copper coils under the highway’s surface to test a new technology Purdue University researchers developed that can provide power to electric vehicles wirelessly as they drive past. “Wouldn’t it really be something if we could just drive over the road and catch your charge for your vehicle as you drive across it?” Dollier said during a phone interview, watching the progress from the parking lot of one of the department’s satellite offices in West Lafayette. The state began construction of its new pilot project this month, and officials say they believe it could spur greater adoption of EVs and redefine the way people think about them. The project, they said, which is being done in partnership with Purdue and the engine manufacturer Cummins Inc., will be capable of providing power to vehicles even as they cruise by at speeds of up to 65 miles per hour.Ultimately, Purdue researchers and state officials hope the project will open up EVs to a wider customer base, largely by reducing battery costs and quelling concerns over range anxiety—the fear that an electric vehicle will run out of juice before reaching its destination. One in four U.S adults say that they would seriously consider buying an EV for their next purchase, but more than half of those who don’t want to buy an electric vehicle blame range anxiety, according to a survey conducted by AAA last year.While Indiana’s project wouldn’t be the first “dynamic EV charger” in the nation—Detroit installed a similar pilot project on a residential road last fall—it would be the first time the technology was installed on a highway.If successful, the technology could also help to electrify long-haul trucks, which are among the most difficult vehicles to decarbonize, said Nadia Gkritza, a civil engineering professor at Purdue University and the project’s lead researcher.

Here’s what new LED lightbulb standards mean for American households - New standards for light-emitting diode (LED) lightbulbs announced by the Biden administration last week will likely mean measurable savings for American households, but experts say the bulbs last so long it may be years before consumers notice the benefits. The Biden administration’s final rule for LED bulbs, announced Friday, more than doubles the energy efficiency requirements for the bulbs, taking them from 45 lumens (the unit of measurement for brightness) per watt to more than 120 lumens. The Department of Energy (DOE) has projected the rule will result in about $27 billion in total savings and prevent the release of 70 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions over a 30-year period. “LED lightbulbs, which are now the norm, will get more energy efficient and therefore use less electricity,” Andrew deLaski, executive director at the Appliance Standards Awareness Project, told The Hill in an interview. Specifically, he said, Americans will save about a dollar per bulb under normal usage conditions, which comes out to a $50 annual savings in a typical household with about two dozen lightbulbs. “It takes some time, and the reason it takes some time is LED lightbulbs last a long time,” he added. In many cases, he said, LED bulbs can last as long as 10 years before burning out, compared to the now phased-out incandescent bulbs, which typically lasted no more than a year.

Attacks on Europe’s largest nuclear power plant put the world “dangerously close to a nuclear accident” - The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear facility, is at the center of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, with both sides accusing each other of reckless behavior that risks a major nuclear incident. This contentious issue was brought before the United Nations Security Council on Monday, April 15, 2024, where concerns were raised about the potential for a catastrophic nuclear accident. Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), reported to the Security Council that three drone attacks had targeted the Zaporizhzhia plant since April 7, 2024. These attacks, Grossi emphasized, pose a significant threat to nuclear safety at a site where operational stability is already severely compromised. “These reckless attacks must cease immediately,” Grossi stated, highlighting that while there has been no radiological incident thus far, the potential for disaster remains high. The Zaporizhzhia plant, located in a region under Russian control in southeastern Ukraine, includes six nuclear reactors. The facility has been in the international spotlight as the fighting in southern Ukraine nears the site, raising fears reminiscent of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The ZNPP stopped generating electricity for the national grid in September 2022, but it has kept at least one of its six units in hot shutdown to provide district heating as well as process steam for liquid waste treatment at the site. This last unit was placed in a cold shutdown state early April 13 — marking the first time since late 2022 that this safety measure has been implemented across all units. The procedure, completed at 07:30 LT for reactor unit 4, involved reducing the reactors’ temperature and pressure, providing a crucial buffer against potential accidents. Despite these precautions, the situation at the plant remains dangerous. “The decision to have all six units in cold shutdown is positive in itself, as the cooling down of the reactor provides an additional buffer in case of an accident. But it doesn’t address the fundamental issue of a recent sharp deterioration of the situation at the plant. Without a doubt, nuclear safety and security at this major nuclear facility remains very precarious,” Grossi said.

Ohio House Republicans propose tax cuts, interest-free loans for gas pipelines - Cleveland.com – Two Ohio House Republicans introduced a plan to further subsidize the development of natural gas pipelines in Ohio.House Bill 349 – brought by state Reps. Don Jones, of Freeport, and Tim Barhorst, of Fort Laramie – would take $20 million of state funds to create a revolving loan program that charges no interest for five years to governments that purchase easements for pipelines.Additionally, the bill changes the property tax formula for pipeline owners, producing a significant reduction in their tax bill for up to 10 years. The Legislative Service Commission has not yet provided a fiscal note estimating the cost in terms of lost tax revenue, and Jones in an interview said he didn’t have a dollar number he could offer.The legislation would deepen Ohio’s investments and financial ties with the fossil fuel industry, as leading scientific bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change urge nations to pivot away from heat trapping fossil fuels and toward renewable energy sources to mitigate increasingly apparent effects of climate change.In recent years, Ohio Republican lawmakers have voted for a ratepayer-funded $700 million coal plant subsidy running through 2030; unlocked ratepayer-funded subsidies for gas pipelines feeding into speculative economic development sites; leased state parks and wildlife area to out-of-state gas drillers; and created new and restrictive rules around building new solar and wind generation facilities.The federal government, meanwhile, has revived an effort to frack Ohio’s only national forest.

American Enviro. Partners Shuts Doors, Lays Off “Dozens” of Workers -- Marcellus Drilling News - We now have more insight (possibly) into why radioactive frack wastewater handler and processor Austin Master Services (AMS) is in trouble with the Ohio Attorney General. Three weeks ago, Ohio AG Dave Yost took legal action seeking to force AMS to correct “egregious violations of Ohio law” regarding the storage of oil and gas waste that he says threatens the Ohio River and Martins Ferry’s drinking water supply (see Ohio AG Sues Austin Master Services for Unsafe Storage of Wastewater). AMS is a subsidiary of (owned and controlled by) American Environmental Partners (AEP). The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports that AEP recently closed its doors and laid off most (if not all) of its employees. AEP owns AMS and several other subsidiaries affected by AEP’s closure.

Neighbors Complain of Foul Odor from Trumbull County Injection Well - An injection well in Southington Ohio is stirring up complaints. While some folks enjoyed the nice weather, some residents there say they couldn't, adding the stench is so bad you could smell the odor as you drove closer to the site, even with your windows up. The NAACP and FracTracker Alliance are teaming up to identify problems and lack of testing about this environmental justice issue. Some folks in Southington, have a problem with the injection wells that accept brine water from the fracking process to extract natural gas from the shale deep underground. "In 2018 we started with various elected officials to see what we could do to have this location shut down because of the fumes," Annett McCoy, NAACP 2nd Vice President of Ohio Conference, & President of the Trumbull NAACP said. The location of the deep injection well site on Highway 422 is half a mile away from the Leavittsburg High School and is closer to homes. Neighbors who didn't want to talk on camera tell 21 News the warmer it gets, or when there is rainfall the odor gets bad enough for residents to smell it from 2 miles away. The Ohio NAACP wants support reclassifying brine water as a hazardous substance so the community members, including doctors and people, can know what they are potentially being exposed to. The organization says this is an environmental justice issue for people who live in Trumbull Counties, and other rural areas where the injection and deep injection brine wells are located. If there is a chemical spill our first responders don't know what they're fighting against or how to protect themselves," McCoy explained." Dr. Ted Auch Midwest Program Director FracTracker Alliance says Ohio's lax state regulations and ODNR being a rubber stamp for the oil and gas industry need to be changed, so residents won't be left facing the fallout of potential earthquakes linked to or caused by deep well injection of the brine water. "When it comes back it comes back oftentimes as quite nasty brine, often quite radioactive brine that has to be disposed of in some way shape, or form. And that brine is being taken by brine haulers across the region to class II injection wells saltwater disposal well," said Auch added. No laws have been violated, but groups point out that is part of the problem, Ohio's lax laws that have made the state a dumping ground for Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. There is no state funding for testing for Volatile Organic Compounds.

Strs Ohio Increases Position in The Williams Companies, Inc - Strs Ohio grew its holdings in The Williams Companies, Inc. (Free Report) by 37.3% during the fourth quarter, HoldingsChannel reports. The firm owned 58,418 shares of the pipeline company’s stock after acquiring an additional 15,872 shares during the period. Strs Ohio’s holdings in Williams Companies were worth $2,034,000 at the end of the most recent reporting period. The Williams Companies, Inc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in the United States. It operates through Transmission & Gulf of Mexico, Northeast G&P, West, and Gas & NGL Marketing Services segments. The Transmission & Gulf of Mexico segment comprises natural gas pipelines; Transco, Northwest pipeline, Mountain West, and related natural gas storage facilities; and natural gas gathering and processing, and crude oil production handling and transportation assets in the Gulf Coast region.

17 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 8 – 14 -- Marcellus Drilling News - Two weeks ago, for April 1 – 7, there were eight new permits issued (see 8 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Apr 1 – 7). However, all eight were issued in Pennsylvania. Both Ohio and West Virginia failed to issue any new permits two weeks ago. Fortunately, that changed last week. For the week of April 8 – 14, there were 17 new permits issued. Seven of those permits were issued in Pennsylvania, with the vast majority going to EQT (six permits, all in Greene County). Ohio issued four new permits last week, all of them to oil driller Encino Energy for Carroll County. West Virginia issued six new permits, with four going to EQT in Marion County and two going to Southwestern Energy in Brooke County. BRADFORD COUNTY | BROOKE COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) |MARION COUNTY | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY

EQT swaps onshore Marcellus shale assets with Equinor plus $500 million – Equinor and EQT Corporation have agreed to swap Equinor’s operated position in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations in Ohio for a stake in EQT’s non-operated interest in the Northern Marcellus formation. Equinor will sell 100% interest in and operatorship of its onshore asset in the Appalachian basin, located in southeastern Ohio, in exchange for 40% of EQT’s non-operated working interest in the Northern Marcellus shale formation in Pennsylvania. The assets EQT is receiving include:

• Roughly 26,000 net acres in Monroe County, Ohio, with 2025E net production of approximately135 MMcfd, directly offsetting EQT-operated acreage.
• Roughly 10,000 net acres in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania, with 2025E net production of approximately15 MMcfd in existing EQT-operated assets.
• The remaining 16.25% ownership in EQT-operated gathering systems servicing core operated acreage in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania.

A gas buy-back agreement whereby Equinor will purchase gas from EQT at a premium to in-basin pricing through the first quarter of 2028Equinor will pay a cash consideration of $500 million to EQT to balance the overall transaction, swapping for resources that contribute to growing cashflows and further reducing CO₂ emissions intensity in the international portfolio.Following the transaction, Equinor will increase its average working interest from 15.7% to 25.7% in certain Chesapeake-operated Northern Marcellus gas units. To cover pre-existing gas sales commitments, Equinor will enter a gas buy-back agreement with EQT.“With this transaction, we continue to high-grade the U.S. portfolio and improve profitability by strengthening our gas position in the most robust part of the Appalachian basin. These assets are well positioned to leverage anticipated positive developments in the U.S. gas market,” said Philippe Mathieu, executive vice president for Exploration and Production International at Equinor. “This also means that we have now fully exited all operated positions onshore US,” Mathieu continued. EQT President and CEO Toby Z. Rice stated, "This transaction marks an extremely positive start to our divestiture program, bringing in over $1.1 billion of value, including synergies and development plan optimization, for 40% of our non-operated assets, while retaining gas price upside. We plan to opportunistically divest the remaining portion of our non-operated assets in Northeast Pennsylvania and have tremendous confidence in being able to achieve our de-leveraging goals." Since 2020, Equinor’s U.S. business has recorded $11 billion in earnings. Prior to this transaction, the Appalachian basin operated position was the last remaining operatorship held by Equinor in the US onshore.

EQT, Equinor Agree to Massive Appalachia Acreage Swap -- EQT Corp. and Equinor have agreed to a large-scale acreage swap in the Appalachian Basin, the companies said in separate press releases on April 15.Under the terms of the transaction, Equinor will sell 100% of its interest in and operatorship in the Marcellus and Utica shales in southeastern Ohio. In exchange, EQT will provide 40% of non-operated interest in the Northern Marcellus in Pennsylvania. At closing, the deal will mean that Equinor will have fully exited all operated positions onshore U.S.Equinor will pay cash consideration of $500 million to EQT to “balance the overall transaction,” Equinor said as the company swaps resources that contribute to growing cashflows and further reduce the international company’s portfolio.EQT said the deal for Equinor’s natural gas assets in Northeast Pennsylvania, represents approximately 225 MMcf/d of forecasted 2025 net production. Aside from $500 million payment from Equinor, based on recent strip pricing, EQT forecasts aggregate 2025 free cash flow of approximately $75 million from the non-cash consideration. EQT said it would receive the following assets and interests in the transaction:

• ~26,000 net acres in Monroe County, Ohio, with estimated 2025 net production of about 135 MMcfe/d directly offsetting EQT-operated acreage;
• ~10,000 net acres in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania, with 2025E net production of ~15 MMcfe/d in existing EQT-operated assets;
• The remaining 16.25% ownership in EQT-operated gathering systems servicing the E&P’s core operated acreage in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania; and
• A gas buy-back agreement whereby Equinor will purchase gas from EQT at a premium to in-basin pricing through the first quarter of 2028.

The buyback agreement from Equinor will follow its increased average working interest to 25.7% from 15.76% in certain Chesapeake Energy-operated Northern Marcellus gas units. Equinor will cover pre-existing gas sales commitments by entering into the gas buy-back agreement with EQT."This transaction marks an extremely positive start to our divestiture program, bringing in over $1.1 billion of value, including synergies and development plan optimization, for 40% of our non-operated assets, while retaining gas price upside,” EQT President and CEO Toby Z. Rice said. “We plan to opportunistically divest the remaining portion of our non-operated assets in Northeast Pennsylvania and have tremendous confidence in being able to achieve our de-leveraging goals." Philippe Mathieu, executive vice president for Exploration and Production International at Equinor, said the transaction high-grades its U.S. portfolio and improves its profitability by strengthening the company’s gas position in the most robust part of the Appalachian Basin.“These assets are well positioned to leverage anticipated positive developments in the U.S. gas market,” Mathieu said. “The proposed swap improves portfolio robustness with an expected reduction in well break-evens and upstream carbon intensity.”“The US is a core area for Equinor where we’re building a broad energy business within offshore and onshore oil and gas, offshore wind, and new low-carbon value chains,” Mathieu said.

Equitrans Agrees to $1.1M Fine for Major 2022 Natural Gas Storage Well Leak in Pennsylvania - The Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has fined Equitrans Midstream Corp. $1.1 million for a storage well that leaked 1 Bcf of natural gas into the atmosphere for more than 10 days in November 2022. In all, 223 tons of carbon dioxide, 27,040 tons of methane and 106 tons of volatile organic compounds (VOC) were released during the incident, which ended after 14 days when Equitrans plugged the well. The methane released during the incident accounted for 10% of the state’s recorded methane emissions during 2022. The VOCs released also were the highest of those recorded that year. DEP said the leak at Equitrans’ Rager Mountain Storage facility in Cambria County’s Jackson Township, about 70 miles east of Pittsburgh, violated the state’s Air Pollution...

EIA Apr DPR: M-U & Haynesville Slash Gas Production, Permian Soars -- Marcellus Drilling News -The latest monthly U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for April, issued yesterday (below), shows EIA believes shale gas production across the seven major plays tracked in the monthly DPR for May will decrease production from the prior month of April. This is the tenth month in a row that EIA has predicted shale gas production will decrease for the combined seven plays. However, it won’t decrease everywhere. Gas-focused plays like the Marcellus/Utica and the Haynesville will see the most significant drop in production (a combined loss of 359 MMcf/d). In contrast, the oily Permian play will see a massive boost in the production of “associated” natural gas — the gas that comes out of the ground along with oil. The Permian is also adding another 12,000 barrels per day of oil production in May.

Portion of Plaquemines LNG’s 2 Bcf/d Pipeline Project Ready for Service, Venture Global Says - The chances of feed gas being introduced to Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Plaquemines LNG project by the end of the year could be rising as the firm awaits approval to place a portion of its pipeline in service. Venture Global asked FERC to allow it to begin introducing natural gas to the 11.7-mile, 42-inch diameter second phase of its Gator Express pipeline system, which would connect to the Texas Eastern Transmission LP (Tetco) pipeline system controlled by a unit of Enbridge Inc. Pending swift approval, the firm told Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff it aims to place all of the second phase equipment in service by the end of the week as crews work to complete the more than 15-mile, 42-inch diameter first phase of Gator Express.

US weekly LNG exports down to 22 shipments - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports decreased in the week ending April 10 compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration.The agency said in its weekly report that 22 LNG carriers departed the US plants between April 4 and April 10, three shipments less compared to the week before.Citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, the EIA said the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 75 Bcf.Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals increased by 1.2 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 12.6 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 0.9 percent (0.1 Bcf/d) to 8.3 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 6.8 percent (0.2 Bcf/d) to 3 Bcf/d.The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast increased 2.3 percent (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 1.3 Bcf/d.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped eight cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent three shipments during the week under review.Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal and Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass facility each shipped three cargoes during the period.Also, the Elba Island terminal and the Freeport LNG facility each sent two cargoes, while the Cove Point terminal shipped one cargo.Freeport LNG, south of Houston, Texas is currently operating with only one of three trains.The EIA is expecting a 2 percent increase in US LNG exports this year compared to record 2023, while LNG exports are expected to rise 18 percent in 2025 due to new LNG terminals coming online.This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 2 cents from $1.86 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.88/MMBtu this Wednesday.The agency said the price of the May 2024 NYMEX contract increased 4.4 cents, from $1.841/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.885/MMBtu this Wednesday.According to the EIA, the price of the 12-month strip averaging May 2024 through April 2025 futures contracts rose 1 cent to $2.829/MMBtu.The agency said that international natural gas futures increased this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia increased 6 cents to a weekly average of $9.57/MMBtu.Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF increased 17 cents to a weekly average of $8.58/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending April 12, 2023), the prices were $12.61/MMBtu in East Asia and $13.84/MMBtu at TTF, the agency said.

Three Things to Know About the LNG Market - Feed gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export plants ticked back up on Thursday after recent downturns as maintenance season gets underway. Overall, U.S. feed gas demand was nominated at 10.8 Bcf, up 5% from Wednesday. Nominations for the Freeport liquefied natural gas export terminal in Texas on Thursday were at 276 MMcf, or the highest in over a week. Flows to the terminal have been near zero after issues were reported by the facility to state regulators last week. Wood Mackenzie power data suggests all three of Freeport’s trains are likely offline. Two of the trains are undergoing inspections and work after damage caused by a winter storm in January. Vessels are still signaling their arrival at the facility, with two scheduled to load on Friday.

Freeport LNG Still Mostly Shut Down – 5 Days in Row at < 5% of Gas -- The problem-plagued Freeport LNG export plant remains out of order. The plant had been mostly offline following an episode of cold temps in January (see Freeport LNG Repairs Won’t be Done Until May – 2 Trains Offline). Freeport announced that two of the three trains at its facility would remain out of service for testing and repairs through May. In late March, Train 3 at the plant came back online (see Freeport LNG Maintenance Work Continues – Gas Flows to One Train). However, a new problem at Train 3 took it offline last week (see NatGas Flows to Freeport LNG Export Plant Drop to Near Zero, Again). According to Reuters, as of Monday this week, the plant has remained offline for five days running.

Freeport LNG’s Extended Drop in Feed Gas Adds Pressure to U.S. Natural Gas Demand –Flows of natural gas to Freeport LNG have remained at a trickle for a week, fueling market concern that possibly all three trains at the facility could be offline after a reported issue with Train 3 last week. Nominations for natural gas to the liquefied natural gas facility had been reduced to about one-fourth of the operational capacity for more than a month as the Freeport LNG Development LP continued maintenance and repairs on all three trains, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. Freeport LNG is able to produce about 2 Bcf/d at full capacity. However, nominations to the terminal dropped further following a reported system issue on April 9 that tripped Train 3 offline for almost 15 hours. Since April 11, feed gas nominations to Freeport have been around 1% of...

Industry Rails Against Biden LNG Pause With Research on Environmental Advantages - U.S. natural gas trade groups this week unveiled a study to demonstrate that American LNG is mostly better for the environment than competing fossil fuels in overseas markets as they continue to push back against the Biden administration’s pause on export project authorizations. “American natural gas is not only critical to our economy, but it will help the world meet its climate goals,” said Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC) at a Washington, DC, event on Tuesday to release the report. “In most cases, U.S. LNG is cleaner than pipeline gas for Europe and Asia, and in all cases, it’s cleaner than heavier carbon fuels such as coal and Russian piped gas.” AXPC and LNG Allies sponsored the study, which was started in 2021

U.S. Power Sector Sets Another New Record for NatGas Demand in Q1 - Marcellus Drilling News - According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, U.S. power sector natural gas demand set another record high in the first quarter and has remained higher year over year into April. Demand from the power sector for natural gas totaled 32.7 Bcf/d (billion cubic feet per day) in the first quarter of 2024, up 2 Bcf/d from the first quarter of 2023. The trend has continued into April. Gas demand from power plants averaged 30.8 Bcf/d from April 1-18, which is 2.1 Bcf/d higher than the same period of 2023. However, whether the trend will continue through the rest of the year is an open question.

From LNG to Data Centers, Kinder Morgan Bullish on Natural Gas Growth - Producers of natural gas may be struggling with low prices, but for pipeline operators like Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI), the outlook is anything but bearish. The Houston-based midstreamer, which transports about 40% of the natural gas consumed in the United States, kicked off the first quarter earnings season with stellar results and a positive message for proponents of the fuel. Executive Chairman Richard Kinder opened the earnings conference call Thursday by discussing the outlook for gas-fired electricity consumption to power artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers, a burgeoning demand segment that is dominating conversation in the gas industry.

Eyes on West Texas Natural Gas as Negative Prices Persist – North American natural gas prices got short-lived support through a Canadian maintenance event on Tuesday but overall continued to languish at well below $2.000/MMbtu. On Wednesday, the May New York Mercantile Exchange natural gas contract slipped 2.0 cents day/day to settle at $1.712. NGI’s U.S. Spot Gas National Avg. rose 12.5 cents to $1.165. TC Energy Corp. on Tuesday said that a rupture occurred on part of its NGTL system in Western Canada, briefly boosting natural gas prices. LNG demand has remained well below par recently, and was at around 10.3 Bcf/d Wednesday. Meanwhile, warm April weather has done little to spur natural gas demand. The market now turns to summer and cooling demand. “It will then be up to hotter than normal mid- and late May temperatures

West Texas Natural Gas Exports to Mexico Surged in 2023 as U.S. Cemented Role as Top Global Supplier - Natural gas pipeline exports from the United States to Mexico via West Texas rose 20% year/year to average 1.6 Bcf/d in 2023, according to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gas flows from West Texas to Mexico “have grown steadily since 2017 as more connecting pipelines in Central and Southwest Mexico have entered service,” said EIA researchers led by Katy Fleury. Pipeline gas exports to Mexico overall averaged 6.1 Bcf/d, up 8% versus 2022. Texas accounted for 5.6 Bcf/d of the total, up 9% from 2022, with most of the growth coming from West Texas. South Texas remains the leading exit point for Mexico bound gas molecules, averaging 3.92 Bcf/d for the 30-day period ending April 10, according to Wood Mackenzie data.

US natgas prices climb 3% on rising LNG feedgas, cooler forecast (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Thursday on forecasts for cooler weather and more demand next week than previously expected and with an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, including Freeport LNG. That price rise also came after a federal report showed last week's storage increase was smaller than usual as low gas prices so far this year has prompted several producers to cut output. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said utilities added 50 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 12. That was in line with the 50-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with an increase of 61 bcf in the same week last year and a five-year (2019-2023) average rise of 61 bcf for this time of year. The build left stockpiles at around 36% above normal levels for this time of year. U.S. gas production fell by around 10% so far in 2024 as several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. EQT is currently the biggest U.S. gas producer and Chesapeake is on track to become the biggest producer after its merger with Southwestern Energy SWN.N. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.5 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $1.757 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas rose to negative 88 cents per mmBtu on April 17, up from negative $1.13 on April 16 and a near four-year low of negative $2.86 on April 15, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal. Spot power and gas prices have traded below zero in several parts of the country, including Texas, California and Arizona, in recent weeks. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 98.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by about 2.8 bcfd over the past six days to a preliminary three-month low of 95.8 bcfd on Thursday. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through April 26 before turning warmer than normal from April 27-May 3. LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 91.8 bcfd this week to 95.9 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary 10.8 bcfd on Thursday, up from 10.1 bcfd on Wednesday and a 15-month low of 9.2 bcfd on Tuesday when feedgas declined at several facilities, including Freeport LNG in Texas, Cameron LNG in Louisiana, and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Since Tuesday, gas flows have increased to all of those plants, including Freeport. Feedgas at Freeport was on track to reach 0.3 bcfd on Thursday, up from near zero over the prior seven days.

Heavy Supply Overhang, Enduring West Texas Price Pressure Weigh Down Natural Gas Forwards – Lofty levels of natural gas in storage and a severe Permian Basin supply glut continued to cloud the outlook for prices. Natural gas forward prices fell in every region during the April 11-17 trading period, NGI’s Forward Look data show. Levels remained well below the $2.00/MMBtu level across the Lower 48, with exceptionally weak West Texas pricing persisting. Front month fixed prices at benchmark Henry Hub fell 5.3 cents for the period to end at $1.714. In line with recent natural gas spot pricing in West Texas, Waha and El Paso Permian fixed prices for May delivery exited the period in negative territory. Prompt month fixed prices at Waha dropped 12.8 cents week/week to end at negative 41.7 cents, Forward Look data show. El Paso Permian shed 11.3 cents to negative 36.7 cents. Natural gas markets emerged from winter in the doldrums. Demand proved modest throughout the heating season amid seasonally mild weather, while production reached record levels of about 107 Bcf/d in the heart of winter. The combination tilted the market into a state of imbalance. Now, with spring weather settled in and annual pipeline maintenance projects underway, including in the Permian, supply continues to outstrip demand. Supplies in storage remain far in excess of historical norms. This has weighed down prices through the shoulder season to date and dampened the outlook found in natural gas forwards. In West Texas, the challenge is particularly acute. Repair and upgrade projects in the region interrupted takeaway capacity at a time when a near-record level of associated gas production in the Permian is in need of buyers. This left excess supply stranded in the region at a time of year when demand is modest and, at the same time, when underground stockpiles are stout. As of mid-April, South Central regional storage was 33% above the five-year average, according to Thursday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage print. Permian suppliers have paid to send away gas, resulting in negative spot prices for several weeks. Cash prices in the region have flipped negative multiple times over the course of last year and early 2024. They have now held in the red for weeks at Waha, and forwards show expectations for more. This traces to already limited takeaway capacity in the region. The 2.5 MMcf/d greenfield Matterhorn Express Pipeline, under development by MPLX LP and WhiteWater Midstream LLC, is projected to come online this year and should help. More is needed, though, according to analysts. “Takeaway capacity for gas is once again at the knife’s edge, and there really are no good alternatives to piping that incremental gas to market — for most producers, flaring at scale is no longer acceptable,” RBN Energy LLC analyst Sheela Tobben said. “While Matterhorn will help, it’s likely to fill up quickly, meaning even more gas takeaway will be needed.” Analyst Rob Wilson of East Daley Analytics agreed. He noted that Moss Lake Partners LP “is throwing its hat in the ring to build the next big gas pipeline out of the Permian” after the Matterhorn project. Moss Lake has started the pre-filing review process with federal regulators for the DeLa Express pipeline. The proposed 690-mile pipeline would move up to 2 Bcf/d from the Permian into Louisiana, Wilson said. Such projects are long term in nature. Demand from Gulf Coast LNG facilities also declined over the course of late March and early April because of maintenance events, amplifying the weak demand situation. Liquefied natural gas demand has become an increasingly prominent element of the U.S. market as global calls from Asia, Europe and elsewhere for American gas have increased in recent years. More momentum lies ahead. Five LNG export projects under construction along the Gulf Coast would boost U.S. export capacity from 14 Bcf/d to nearly 25 Bcf/d by the end of the decade. Currently, however, LNG feed gas volumes are running well below capacity. Continued lower production would also have a lasting impact. Natural gas production held near or below 100 Bcf/d for much of early April – far from the record levels reached earlier this year. Major producers, largely outside of the Permian, eased activity in recent weeks to balance the market. EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage for the April 12 period. That proved in line with market expectations ahead of the EIA data. The median of a Bloomberg poll landed at 51 Bcf, while Reuters’ survey produced a median of 49 Bcf. NGI modeled a 55 Bcf increase. The actual result compared bullishly with a five-year average increase of 61 Bcf. Still, at 2,333 Bcf, total working gas in storage was 36% above the average of the past five years. Early estimates submitted to Reuters for the week ending April 19 showed an average increase of 64 Bcf. That compares with a five-year average increase of 59 bcf.

Energy Executives See Sub-$3 U.S. Natural Gas Prices Persisting Amid Supply Glut - Oil and natural gas executives in the Midcontinent and Rocky Mountain regions don’t expect Henry Hub natural gas prices to surpass $3/MMBtu for another two years, according to the first quarter 2024 energy survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The survey gauges current and expected oil and gas activity levels in the Tenth Federal Reserve District, as well as expectations for oil and natural gas prices. The Tenth District includes Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma and Wyoming, along with 43 counties in western Missouri and 14 counties in northern New Mexico.

Gallons Of Oil Leaked From Shell Pipeline - Nearly 90,000 gallons of oil have leaked from a Shell \pipeline into the Gulf of Mexico about 90 miles off the Louisiana coast, the US Coast Guard has said. Chief Petty Officer Bobby Nash said the leak had been secured and cleanup crews would be dispatched to the area. Shell spokeswoman Kimberly Windon said in a statement that a helicopter spotted an oil sheen near the Glider subsea tieback system at the company's Brutus platform shortly before 8am on Thursday. She said: "There are no drilling activities at Brutus, and this is not a well control incident." Officials are investigating the cause of the leak, but Ms Windon said it was likely to have been caused by the release of oil from the subsea infrastructure. The oil apparently leaked from a line connecting four wells in the Green Canyon area of the Gulf of Mexico to the platform, and has left a miles-long sheen. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said there had been no reports of injuries. Shell Offshore reported the spill and shut the wells flowing into the line. Ms Windon added: "We are working with the United States Coast Guard and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association to define the best approach to contain and clean up the sheen." About 88,200 gallons were reportedly released from the pipeline. The BSEE has tightened regulations for offshore operators since the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon well blowout which spilled more than three million barrels of oil into the Gulf - the worst oil spill in US history. Shell said it has mobilised response vessels, including aircraft, to see if it can recover the spilled oil.

Biden administration aims to increase industry responsibility for decommissioning drilling platforms - The Biden administration on Monday finalized a new rule it says will reduce taxpayer responsibility for the process of decommissioning offshore oil and gas platforms. The decommissioning process is the final step in offshore fossil fuel extraction and involves dismantling the drilling platforms and returning the area to its predrilling state. Under existing regulations, taxpayers are responsible for any costs associated with the process that the companies themselves do not cover. The final rule would amend the regulation, simplifying the process by which it assesses a fossil fuel company’s finances and its responsibility for decommissioning. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) estimated the rule would require $6.9 billion in new financial guarantees from the fossil fuel industry. Earlier estimates from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) project that the full decommissioning process costs about $40 billion to 70 billion, while the government had only secured about $3.5 billion in industry assurances under the existing rules. “This final rule updates, simplifies and strengthens outdated requirements to ensure that taxpayers are protected and current operators are held responsible for their end-of-lease cleanup obligations on the Outer Continental Shelf,” Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said in a statement. However, the advocacy group Earthjustice criticized the rule for not going far enough in addressing the outstanding costs, noting that the additional $6.9 billion would still leave about $30 billion unaccounted for. “This rulemaking is a step in the right direction and will alleviate the financial burden on American taxpayers who foot the bill for cleaning up after the oil industry in our oceans,” Earthjustice attorney Ava Ibanez Amador said in a statement. “But more reforms are needed. The oil industry continues to get away with paying far too little up front, extracting maximum profit, and leaving the rest of us on the hook. The oil industry has shown itself to be an irresponsible tenant in our public waters and it should be required to pay a much larger security deposit before it can start drilling.”

Federal Onshore Natural Gas, Oil Drilling Costs Rising as Interior Updates ‘Outdated’ Rules - The Biden administration earlier this month finalized revamped onshore natural gas and oil leasing rules, increasing the royalty rates and, for the first time in 60 years, bumping up the cost for bonding requirements. The Department of Interior’s Fluid Mineral Leases and Leasing Process final rule revised regulations under the purview of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). BLM oversees more than 245 million acres of public land, primarily in 12 western states including Alaska. Interior cited “outdated fiscal terms of the onshore federal oil and gas leasing program, including for bonding requirements, royalty rates and minimum bids, which will increase returns to the public and disincentivize speculators and irresponsible actors.”

Drilling for oil on public land is about to cost a lot more - On Friday, the Department of Interior released a new rule that will impose stricter financial requirements for oil and gas companies that operate on federal public land – the first such change since 1960. The reform includes a jump in the amount of money that drilling companies must put forward to ensure cleanup of their wells. It also raises the royalty tax rate that operators pay on the minerals they extract on public land, which had not changed in more than a century. In a statement, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland said that the changes will “cut wasteful speculation, increase returns for the public, and protect taxpayers from being saddled with the costs of environmental cleanups.” The final version of the rule, which was released in draft form last summer, joins a flurry of climate and conservation moves by the Biden administration in recent weeks, including a strengthened methane emissions standards for oil wells on federal land and a renewable energy policy meant to promote wind and solar development. Environmental groups praised the rule as long overdue. “These new regulations are the kind of common-sense reforms the federal oil and gas leasing program has needed for decades,” said Athan Manuel, Sierra Club Lands Protection Program director, in a statement. The increase to bonding requirements means that the government will have substantially more money set aside to pay for cleaning up abandoned oil and gas wells. In order to drill, energy companies put forward funds, most often in the form of bonds purchased with a third-party surety company, to ensure that cleanup takes place. These bonds are held until the company plugs its wells. If the company performs the reclamation work itself, it gets its bonds back. If a company goes bankrupt or abandons its wells some other way, the government can use the money in the bonds to pay for plugging and environmental cleanup. Bonding levels need to be high enough to incentivize cleanup over abandonment, and Interior Department’s bonds hadn’t changed in more than six decades. A 2019 report from the Government Accountability Office found that between 84% and 99% of bonds for public land wells do not cover the full cost of cleanup. The new rule raises the minimum bond for a single public land oil and gas lease – which often contains multiple wells – from $10,000 to $150,000. For companies that operate multiple leases in the same state, the bond increases from $25,000 to $500,000. Despite these increases, the new bonding levels are unlikely to cover the complete cost of cleaning up the more than 90,000 unplugged wells overseen by the Bureau of Land Management. The same 2019 GAO report found a wide range of plugging costs for orphaned wells on public land, ranging from $20,000 to as much as $145,000 per well, with a median cost of $71,000 to plug the well and clean up the drilling site.

White House will 'make sure gas prices remain affordable' heading into summer, Biden advisor says --President Joe Biden’s top economic advisor said Thursday the White House will “make sure gas prices remain affordable” when asked whether the administration would consider tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.There are of course things that have been done in the past and we’ll continue to very closely monitor, make sure that gas prices remain affordable for so many American families going into the summer driving season,” National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard said at Semafor’s World Economy Summit.Gasoline futures have risen nearly 29% this year with prices at the pump currently averaging $3.67 a gallon, according to the motorist association AAA. U.S. crude oil has gained 15% year to date on stronger demand, tighter supplies due to OPEC+ production cuts and mounting geopolitical risks in the MidEast and Eastern Europe.“We’re highly attentive to the international oil markets and domestic gas prices. We’ll continue to monitor closely and want to make sure that those gas prices remain in current ranges,” Brainard said. U.S. crude oil hit a high of $87.67 per barrel this year before pulling back to around $83 a barrel.Iran’s unprecedented weekend air assault on Israel has raised fears that an Israeli counterattack could trigger a wider war in the region that impacts crude oil supplies. The White House is keeping a close eye on “geostrategic risk” in the Middle East, Brainard said. And Ukraine’s repeated drone strikes on Russian oil refineries also have the Biden administration concerned about their effect on prices. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Congress last week that those attacks could have “a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation.” White House climate advisor John Podesta said Tuesday that Biden “will do what he can to make sure” gasoline is affordable, noting that the administration has in the past tapped the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to ease prices at the pump.The White House released 180 million barrels from the SPR in 2022 as oil and gas prices surged in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The reserve currently stands at about 365 million barrels, the lowest level in decades, a point of contention with Republicans in Congress.Russia’s decision to deepen its cuts by 470,000 barrels per day to meet its pledges to OPEC+ could prove particularly problematic, according to a March research note from JPMorgan. The price of global benchmark Brent crude oil could approach $100 by September — just two months before the November presidential election — without countermeasure, according to the firm.The chances of another release from the SPR will rise if gasoline prices move closer to $4 per gallon, which could happen as soon as May, according to JPMorgan. Despite the SPR’s low levels, the Biden administration has space to release another 60 million barrels of crude oil, according to the bank.Oil prices have pulled back more than 3% this week as war fears eased along with Israel’s decision not to strike back immediately against Iran, but the situation remains highly uncertain. Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, said oil prices above $90 a barrel presents a problem for the broader market.“It’s also a problem for inflation in general, and it’s a real problem if you’re an incumbent running for reelection,” Yergin told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” earlier this month.

USA Regional Banks Dramatically Step Up Loans to Oil and Gas A group of US regional banks is ratcheting up lending to oil, gas and coal clients, grabbing market share as bigger European rivals back away. The list of banks includes Citizens Financial Group Inc., BOK Financial Corp. and Truist Securities Inc., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The companies have climbed between 13 and 40 steps up the league table for fossil-fuel lenders since the end of 2021, placing them among the world’s top 35 banks by number of deals. Fifth Third Securities Inc. and US Bancorp, already in the top 30, both ascended 10 steps in the same period. Since the start of 2022, the combined number of fossil-fuel loans provided by Citizens Financial, BOK Financial, Truist Securities, Fifth Third and US Bancorp rose more than 70% on an average annualized basis, compared with the preceding six years, the Bloomberg data show. Spokespeople for Truist, Fifth Third and US Bancorp declined to comment. Rory Sheehan, a spokesperson for Citizens Financial, said the bank supports initiatives enabling the transition toward a lower-carbon future. He also said the bank recognizes the role of the oil and gas industry. The development offers a glimpse of how the US banking landscape is being altered against a backdrop of stricter climate regulations across the Atlantic. US regional lenders — shaken by the crisis that followed Silicon Valley Bank’s meltdown — are participating in more fossil-fuel loans as banks in Europe begin to pull away for fear of getting caught on the wrong side of environmental, social and governance regulations and climate litigation. “Someone betting heavily that the demand for fossil fuels will keep on rising significantly is clearly taking a view that is at odds with existing forecasts,” “I would like to be very sure that they understand the implications of this kind of bet.” BNP Paribas SA, the European Union’s biggest bank, and ING Groep NV, the largest lender in the Netherlands, are among banks that are in the process of expanding restrictions on fossil-fuel clients. The companies, which are both currently fighting lawsuits brought by climate nonprofits, dropped about 10 places in the ranking of oil, gas and coal lenders over the past two years. Wall Street’s largest banks, meanwhile, remain among the absolute biggest lenders to the fossil-fuel industry. Last year, such loans were dominated by Wells Fargo & Co., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to Bloomberg data.

Canadian Natural Gas Production Holds Strong, on Track for Record Year Despite Price Weakness - Natural gas production held near all-time highs through the first quarter in Canada, even as prices slumped following a mild winter that left supplies in storage at robust levels. That’s because producers are looking beyond near-term weakness and toward an anticipated jump in export demand, according to analysts. LNG Canada is slated to begin operations this year and is expected to draw down excess supplies to feed mounting global demand. Since the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe has shifted away from Kremlin-backed energy and toward North American liquefied natural gas. Demand from Asia and other parts of the world also is projected to rise. Western Canadian natural gas production in March averaged 18.49 Bcf/d, reaching a fresh high for this month and...

Rupture on TC Energy's NGTL gas pipeline sparks wildfire in Alberta *(Reuters) - A section of TC Energy's (TRP.TO), opens new tab NGTL gas pipeline system in Alberta ruptured and caught fire on Tuesday, sparking a wildfire in a remote area, the company said. "An initial ignition of natural gas at the rupture site is now extinguished. We are working to support Alberta Wildfire in their response to contain a secondary fire," the company said in a statement on its website. TC said there were no injuries and it was working closely with first responders in the region. The fire broke out about 40 km (25 miles) northwest of Edson, Alberta, in Yellowhead County. Canadian broadcaster Global News said there was a plume of flames and smoke visible from many kilometres away. The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) said initial investigations indicated a rupture in a gas pipeline caused the fire, which was under control. TC Energy said it has isolated and shut down the affected section of the NGTL system, and the remainder of the system is operating normally with no commercial impact. The CER said it is sending inspectors to the area to monitor and oversee the company’s response and determine the impact of the incident. NGTL is TC Energy's natural gas gathering and transportation system that transports gas produced in Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) to markets in Canada and United States.

Alberta Pipeline Incident Sends Natural Gas Futures Higher - Natural gas futures jumped higher Tuesday afternoon after reports of a pipeline incident in Alberta broke up an otherwise quiet shoulder season day of trading. The May Nymex contract rose 4.1 cents day/day to settle at $1.732/MMBtu. Futures spiked higher around 2 p.m. ET without any immediate explanation. Market chatter soon turned to reports of an incident on TC Energy Corp.’s Nova Gas Transmission Ltd. (NGTL). TC Energy confirmed it was “actively responding to an incident involving the NGTL natural gas system” about 25 miles northwest of Edson, Alberta. “The affected section of the pipeline has been isolated and shut down,” a spokesperson said.

Firefighters battle wildfire near Edson, Alta., after natural gas line rupture | CBC News - A natural gas pipeline rupture Tuesday morning in west-central Alberta has sparked a wildfire. TC Energy activated its emergency response procedures after it was notified about the incident involving its Nova Gas Transmission Line in a remote location 40 kilometres northwest of Edson, Alta. The rupture occurred at about 11 a.m., TC Energy said in a statement. Edson is about 200 kilometres west of Edmonton and about 160 km northeast of the B.C.-Alberta border. "The pipeline incident did create a wildfire and so Alberta Wildfire, Yellowhead County and TC Energy are currently responding to the wildfire," said Caroline Charbonneau, Alberta Wildfire information officer for the Edson forest area. The fire was considered out of control Tuesday afternoon, but in update posted at 7 p.m., Alberta Wildfire said the fire was being held. "This means that given current weather conditions and resources, the wildfire is not anticipated to grow past expected boundaries," the update said, noting the wildfire covered about 10 hectares. The Canadian Energy Regulator (CER) said in a statement late Tuesday that it is responding to the incident. All TC Energy personnel working in the area were safely evacuated and there are no reported injuries, the regulator said. "CER inspectors will be onsite to monitor and assess the company's immediate response and verify that all reasonable actions are being taken to protect workers, the public and the environment," the CER said in its statement. Charbonneau said Tuesday afternoon that conditions were dry but firefighters were making good progress and no communities were threatened by the fire. Yellowhead County said in a statement that it "worked with the gas company to shut the pipeline in. There is no more leaking gas." The cause of the fire is still under investigation, the county said.

Alberta wildfire sparked by natural gas line rupture under control - A wildfire in west-central Alberta that was sparked by a natural gas pipeline rupture is under control, but an investigation into what caused the pipeline to break could take months or even years. As of Wednesday morning, there was very little fire activity left in Yellowhead County, where a 10-hectare fire burned on Tuesday about 40 kilometres northwest of Edson. "But for it to be considered extinguished, we're going to have to hot spot," said Caroline Charbonneau, area information co-ordinator with Alberta Forestry and Parks. "That means we'll have to dig into the ground, look and feel for hot spots, and then douse it with water. And that could take several days." There were no injuries, and the fire was never a threat to any surrounding communities. The affected pipeline segment was isolated and shut in and there is no more gas leaking from the pipeline. The Canada Energy Regulator had inspectors on site Wednesday to monitor the company's response and the Transportation Safety Board is investigating the incident. According to CER, there have been 12 natural gas pipeline ruptures in Canada since 2008, and Tuesday's incident near Edson was the first rupture on that particular pipeline within that time period. The 36-inch diameter pipe that ruptured is part of TC Energy's NGTL pipeline system, which transports natural gas from Alberta and northeast B.C. to domestic and export markets. The system spans 24,631 kilometres and connects with TC Energy's Canadian Mainline system, Foothills system and other third-party pipelines. The NGTL pipeline system is like a web made up of different lines that have been developed in stages. In 2022, there was a rupture on a separate part of the system that resulted in an explosion and fire near Fox Creek, Alta. There were no injuries. A TSB investigation into that incident took more than 14 months, and concluded that the pipeline ruptured due to reduced pipe wall strength caused by external corrosion. While the primary risk of a crude oil pipeline leak is an oil spill that harms the local ecosystem, natural gas pipeline ruptures can and do result in fires or explosions, said Bill Caram, executive director of the Pipeline Safety Trust, a U.S.-based non-profit organization. "Pipelines are quite safe, and when you look at incident rates compared to other modes of transportation like rail or truck, they are much less likely to have a failure," Caram said. "But what you don't get a sense of by looking at the risks of pipelines in that way is how catastrophic a failure can be when it does happen." According to the TSB, there were 19 recorded incidences of fires related to pipelines in Canada between 2012 and 2022. The TSB's most recent report on pipeline transportation safety in Canada states that in 2022 there were 100 companies transporting either oil or gas or both in the federally regulated pipeline system, which includes approximately 19,950 km of oil pipelines and approximately 48,700 km of natural gas pipelines. That year, there were 67 pipeline transportation accidents and incidents on federally regulated pipeline systems, according to the report. That number was well below the 10-year average of 112 occurrences, and was also the lowest number of occurrences since 2019, when 52 pipeline accidents or incidents were recorded by the TSB. The TSB defines a pipeline "accident" as an incident that results in a person being injured or killed, a fire or explosion, or significant damage to the pipeline affecting its operation. Less severe pipeline events that involve the uncontrolled release of a commodity or a precautionary or emergency shutdown are classified by the TSB as "incidents."

Natural Gas Would Still Form Base of Mexico Power System Under Sheinbaum Presidency - Mexico’s presidential frontrunner Claudia Sheinbaum of the ruling Morena party would continue the nation’s buildout of natural gas-fired power if she were to win the June 2 election. Speaking to business leaders in Mexico City on Monday evening, Sheinbaum highlighted that 3.250 GW of new generation, 91% of which was natural-gas fired combined cycle, were set to come online later this year. That includes the 932 MW Salamanca combined cycle plant in Guanajuato; the 256 MW El Sauz ll combined cycle plant in Querétaro; the 348 MW Manzanillo III combined cycle plant in Colima; the 437 MW San Luis Potosí power plant in Villa de Reyes; the 350 MW natural gas-fired Lerdo combined cycle in Durango; and the 499 MW combined cycle plant in Merida.

Environmentalists denounce a new oil spill in Campeche after platform explosion - Environmental organizations denounced that Mexico’s Safety, Energy and Environment Agency (ASEA) has repeatedly demonstrated its inability to address the causes of these incidents. Environmental civil society organizations detected a new crude oil spill in the vicinity of the Akal-B platform in the Campeche Sound, which caught fire and exploded on April 6. The signatory organizations indicated that they have satellite images in which they have been able to verify that the crude oil spill began around March 22 of this year (15 days before the Akal-B platform), and it remains active, accumulating 20 days of uninterrupted leak. “The crude oil spill is estimated to cover an area of approximately 390 km2, a size similar to that of the spill reported by several of the signatory organizations in July of last year,” they indicated. “Given this terrible situation, we urge transparent information, attention, mitigation and non-repetition measures; and more concern about Pemex and the safety of its workers, the safety of the communities that coexist with its infrastructure, the future of the oil company and its undeniable responsibility in the face of the world climate crisis,” environmentalists stressed. They denounced that the Safety, Energy and Environment Agency (ASEA) has repeatedly demonstrated its incompetence and inability to address the causes of these incidents and prevent these disasters, “despite being directly responsible for regulating and sanctioning Pemex.” It was pointed out that the frequency of accidents by Pemex has increased by 152% in the last two years, and the budget allocated to the maintenance of facilities has decreased by 49%, demonstrating that Pemex has made bad administrative decisions prioritizing the accelerated extraction of fossil fuels instead of investing in security and maintenance of its existing infrastructure. “The consequences are visible in the irreparable human losses of workers and the effects on the health of local communities and ecosystems impacted by fossil disasters,” they stated. So far, the explosion of the Akal-B platform has officially caused the death of two workers from the COTER company, and nine more injured. “The two workers join the list of more than 360 people who have died in Pemex accidents since 2009,” they stated.

Authorities investigate oil spill at Hagatna Marina - Local and federal officials are looking into an oil spill at the Hagatna Marina. The U.S. Coast Guard and Guam Environmental are investigating the source of the underwater oil spill and how much oil has actually flowed into the marina. The Port Authority of Guam confirmed it happened Monday around 10:30 p.m. The spill was reported as a private contractor was doing construction at the Guam Fishermen’s Co-op property. Officials said the contractor was excavating and dredging the rocks behind the co-op at the time. The co-op called on an environmental emergency response company to assist in containing the spill. Port General Manager Rory Respicio said, “Our safety division worked diligently with the emergency response contractor to ensure that the oil booms placed in the waterway did not impede or endanger the safety of our marina boaters.”

US Prepares To Reimpose Venezuela Oil Ban As Biden Seeks Scapegoat To Resume Draining SPR -- For much of the past year, we had joked that behind the facade of western Democratic ideals, was a cold hard truth: the price of oil must not be allowed to go up in an election year. This was obvious in Biden's "kid gloves" treatment of Iran's regime, it was obvious when the US implemented "sanctions" on Russian oil that were breached within months with zero enforcement, it was also obvious when the US president became best friends with Venezuela's dictator Nicolas Maduro last October when, in exchange for a few thousands barrels of Venezuela's oil, the US lifted sanctions on the person that for years was one of western "democracies" biggest enemies. Of course, there had to be some at least optical quid-pro-quo in exchange for the Biden detente so that the US president doesn't look not just senile but also totally stupid and incompetent, and sure enough Maduro agreed that he will hold "free elections" only to renege a few weeks later, while also rubbing Biden's face in Maduro's sudden leverage over the US president as we reported on various occasions: Biden courts Maduro to get a few hundred thousands barrels of oil so his record low approval doesn't drop even more, and now an emboldened Maduro is preparing to annex most of the sovereign state of Guayana

Spot LNG shipping rates continue to drop, European prices climb - Spot charter rates for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier fleet continued to decrease this week, while European prices rose compared to the week before.Last week, charter rates also fell compared to the week before.“Freight rates in the Atlantic and Pacific basins continue to fall for the third consecutive week, with the Spark30S Atlantic spot rate falling by $1,000 per day to $43,750 per day, and the Spark25S Pacific rate falling by $250 per day to $46,750 per day,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday.“The Spark30S Atlantic spot rate is at its lowest point when compared to the same period in the last four years,” he said.LNG freight rates remain low despite the fact that LNG carriers are still avoiding the Suez Canal due to the situation in the Red Sea and the lower LNG transits in the Panama Canal due to a drought situation. The Panama Canal Authority said in a statement this week that current forecasts indicate that steady rainfall would arrive in late April and continue for a few months. “If this remains the case, the canal plans to gradually ease transit restrictions, allowing conditions to fully normalize by 2025,” it said. The authority currently offers in total up to 27 transits per day. Europe to compete for cargoes at higher prices In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month jumped compared to the last week. “The SparkNWE DES LNG front month price for May delivery is assessed at $8.992/MMBtu and at a $0.225/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said. He said this is a $0.945/MMBtu increase in DES LNG price, the largest weekly increase in SparkNWE DES LNG price in six months (October 2023), and the highest DES LNG price in three months (January 2024). “The NWE basis reached the narrowest differential to the TTF year to date this week as the arb to send cargo to Asia for US volumes remains open, requiring Europe to compete for cargoes at higher price levels,” Afghan said.

ExxonMobil Greenlights Another Stabroek Project Offshore Guyana - ExxonMobil keeps powering ahead in its offshore Guyana program even as a contract dispute and geopolitical tensions cast a shadow over the oil-rich project. The company made a final investment decision for the Whiptail development, its sixth project on the offshore Stabroek block. It has the necessary approvals in place and the offshore platform is under construction, the company said. Whiptail would produce 250,000 b/d of oil by 2027, bringing total production to 1.3 million b/d by this date. This would make Guyana one of the top producers in Latin America, easily surpassing neighboring Venezuela which now produces around 850,000 b/d.

Russia's crude oil exports at 11-month high in April, cross OPEC target to support prices - Russia’s seaborne crude exports soared to an 11-month high in the second week of April with flows from all major ports near peak levels. Last week’s jump propelled total weekly flows to the highest since May 2023, for a level that has been exceeded only twice since the start of 2022, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg show. The less volatile four-week average also rose sharply, climbing to the highest since early June. Weekly shipments were well above a target for this month that’s part of the OPEC alliance’s broader effort to curb supplies and support prices. Cargoes from Primorsk, Ust-Luga, Novorossiysk and Kozmino were close to historical highs. Primorsk on the Baltic handled 10 tankers in three of the past four weeks, possibly reflecting a diversion to exports of crude that would have been processed at refineries hit by Ukrainian drones. The port hasn’t handled more than 11 tankers in a week in data back to the start of 2022. Refining rates are languishing near an 11-month low as repairs continue. The jump in flows, combined with higher Urals crude prices, boosted Moscow’s oil earnings. The gross value of crude exports rose to $2.15 billion in the seven days to April 14 from $1.82 billion previously. Four-week average income added about $170 million to $1.92 billion a week. Separately, four-week average shipments to Asia continued to climb, following a similar pattern to that seen at the same time last year. Then, shipments to Asia — predominantly China and India — peaked at 3.6 million barrels a day in the four weeks to May 14, before dropping by about 1 million barrels a day over the following three months. The backlog of Russia’s Sokol crude that built up after being turned away by Indian refiners has now almost disappeared. About 9.1 million barrels, half of the total, have been delivered to refineries in China. Another 7 million barrels are finding their way back to India. Two cargoes have been delivered to Pakistan. That leaves just 1.4 million barrels still to show a destination, with another 700,000 barrels in a tanker that’s been anchored off India’s east coast since the start of April. All of the Sokol cargoes loaded since mid-February headed directly to China. Russia’s seaborne crude flows in the week to April 14 surged by 560,000 barrels a day to 3.95 million, reaching the highest since May 2023. The less volatile four-week average also soared, up by about 250,000 barrels a day to 3.66 million, to the highest since June. Weekly shipments were about 365,000 barrels a day higher than the average seen in May and June, or about 490,000 barrels a day above Russia’s April target, which is part of the OPEC alliance’s broader effort to curb supplies and support prices. The four-week average was about 200,000 barrels a day above the target.

Russia Quickly Restores Oil Refinery Capability Hurt By Ukrainian Attacks - News From Antiwar.com Russia has been able to swiftly repair oil refineries inside Russian territory that have been targeted by Ukrainian drones, Reuters reported on Monday.The report said the attacks initially reduced Russia’s oil production by 14% at the end of March, but after quick repairs, it is now down by 10% and expected to continue to increase.The Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s refineries provoked more Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. According to The Washington Post, US officials say the Russian strikes have hurt Ukraine far more than the attacks on oil refineries hurt Russia.The Post report said that Vice President Kamala Harris told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to stop targeting Russian oil refineries back in February over concerns it would disrupt the global oil market and provoke harsh Russian retaliation. But Zelensky brushed off the warnings, and the attacks continued.Russia has been much more successful in its attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure as its intelligence improves and Ukraine is running low on air defenses. Zelensky said on Tuesday that Ukraine was unable to prevent the destruction of one of its largest power plants, the Trypilska thermal power plant, because it didn’t have enough munitions.“There were 11 missiles flying. We destroyed the first seven, and [the remaining] four destroyed Trypillia,” Zelensky said. “Why? Because there were zero missiles. We ran out of missiles to defend Trypillia.”

Japan to retain oil and gas interests in Russia - Japanese companies will continue to participate in Russian energy projects on Sakhalin Island due to their importance for Tokyo’s energy security, the country’s foreign ministry announced on Tuesday. Tokyo will continue its “close cooperation” with the Group of Seven industrialized nations (G7) to pursue a “policy of tough sanctions” on Russia, the ministry said in its annual Diplomatic Bluebook, which reviews Japan’s foreign affairs activities. Japan is also set to further cut reliance on Moscow’s energy resources by phasing out oil and coal imports. However, Tokyo will retain its interests in the Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project and the Sakhalin-1 offshore oil and gas venture in Russia’s Far East, according to the foreign ministry. “In light of ensuring stable supplies in the medium and long term, Japan continues to view these projects as important in the field of energy security and intends to maintain its share,” it stated. Sakhalin-1 is a consortium for offshore oil and gas production. Its sister project, Sakhalin-2, is one of the world’s largest LNG ventures, supplying around 4% of the global market. Both projects faced disruptions in 2022 after Western energy majors including US ExxonMobil and Britain’s Shell opted to leave Russia after the West sanctioned the country over its military operation in Ukraine. Japan’s Sakhalin Oil and Gas Development Co (SODECO) owns a 30% stake in Sakhalin-1. In 2022, the Russian government allowed SODECO to keep its stake under the new domestic operator of Sakhalin-1 following the exit of ExxonMobil, the previous operator and former owner of a 30% stake. Exxon Neftegaz was disbanded as the operator of the project and all its assets and equipment were transferred to a new company managed by Rosneft subsidiary Sakhalinmorneftegaz-Shelf. Mitsui, along with Mitsubishi, have also retained their 22.5% combined stake in the Sakhalin-2 LNG project. Mitsubishi CEO Katsuya Nakanishi said in February that Russia’s LNG project remained “extremely important” for ensuring that Japan maintains a stable supply of energy.

Saudi’s February crude exports edge up to 6.317 million bpd - Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in February edged up to 6.317 million barrels per day (bpd) from 6.297 million bpd in January, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Wednesday. The world’s largest oil exporter’s crude oil production increased by 0.6% to 9.01 million bpd while inventories fell by 6.73 million barrels to 145.09 million. JODI is provided with monthly export figures by Riyadh and other members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and publishes them on its website. Data showed that Saudi refineries’ crude throughput rose by 250,000 bpd to 2.675 million bpd in February while direct crude burning increased by 52,000 bpd to 360,000 bpd. Meanwhile, the country’s oil products exports rose by 147,000 bpd to 1.39 million bpd.29dk2902l Separately, Saudi Arabia has raised the official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude oil for customers in Asia and the Mediterranean in May. Earlier this month, OPEC and allies including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, kept their oil supply policy unchanged and pressed some countries to increase compliance with output cuts.

China's Crude Oil Imports Hit A Record High In 2023 -China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in 2023, rising by 10% year-over-year and breaking the previous record from 2020 when the world’s top crude oil importer took advantage of the price crash to gorge on cheap crude. Last year, China’s crude oil imports averaged 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 10% compared to 2022, according to Chinese customs data compiled by Bloomberg and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). After China lifted the Covid-related restrictions in early 2023, Chinese refiners boosted imports to record-high levels last year, to support transportation fuel demand and produce feedstocks for China’s growing petrochemical industry, the EIA noted in an analysis published on Tuesday.Russia, thanks to cheaper crude supply, was China’s top source of crude imports last year, the data showed. Russia was also the supplier whose crude sales in China jumped the most. In 2023, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq were China’s main sources of crude oil imports. Compared with 2022, China’s 2023 crude oil imports increased the most from Russia, Iran, Brazil, and the United States.Between 2019 and 2021, Saudi Arabia was China’s top crude oil supplier, with Russia second with 15% of Chinese imports.In 2023, Russia was China’s top source of crude oil imports, supplying 19% of China’s crude oil imports, which averaged 2.1 million bpd, the EIA said.The surge in Chinese crude oil imports from Russia was the result of discounted Russian prices due to the Western sanctions and price caps on Russia’s crude.

House Votes to Sanction China's Purchase of Iranian Oil - The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed legislation Monday aimed at countering China’s purchase of Iranian crude oil as part of a package of bills being brought to the floor in response to Iran’s attack on Israel. The legislation was approved by a 383-11 vote, surpassing the requisite number needed to overcome a presidential veto. The legislation moves to the Senate where it faces an uncertain fate. The bill, H.R. 5923, Iran-China Energy Sanctions Act of 2023, expands secondary sanctions against Iran to cover all transactions between Chinese financial institutions and sanctioned Iranian banks used to purchase of petroleum and petroleum products, according to a summary of the bill. The legislation also requires the US to make a determination annually whether Chinese financial institutions have engaged in sanctionable conduct. About 80% of Iran’s roughly 1.5 million barrels a day of oil exports are sent to independent refineries in China known as “teapots,” according to the summary. The bill, introduced by New York Republican Representative Mike Lawler, clarifies that any transaction by a Chinese financial institution for the purchase of oil from Iran qualifies as a “significant financial transaction” for sanctions purposes. The measure, unanimously approved by the House Financial Services Committee in November, is one of several Iran-related bills that were slated to be considered Monday under an expedited procedure typically used to pass legislation that has bipartisan support. The sanctions, if passed into law and enforced, could result in an increase of as much as 20 cent per gallon on gasoline prices, consulting firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note to clients Monday.

Iran-Iraq gas contract extension outcome of promoted energy diplomacy, says MP -- The extension of a contract to export Iran’s gas to Iraq is the outcome of promoting energy diplomacy, particularly with neighboring states, said a member of the Parliament’s Energy Committee on Saturday. Ramezanali Sangdovini told SHANA the 13th administration has established good relations with neighbors and other countries, including the members of BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), leading to strong diplomacy. Capable knowledge-based companies were created, particularly in the oil and gas sectors, amid the enemy’s sanctions, said the lawmaker, adding the companies are now producing a great number of products needed by the oil industry, helping the energy sector develop. Mohammad Baqeri, a member of the Parliament’s Economic Committee, said the 13th administration inheriting tough conditions stemming from the sanctions and the previous government’s incompetence was faced with problems about exporting oil and non-oil products and has tried to improve the country’s economy since it took office in August 2021. Joining the international and extraregional agreements, the incumbent government has boosted its overseas synergy, said the legislator.

Iran's oil exports and tensions with the West (Reuters) - Iran, the third largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produces about 3 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), or around 3% of total world output. Following are some facts on Iran's oil industry as anxiety mounts its supply could be disrupted and cause a surge in international oil prices because of extreme tension in the Middle East. Iran's oil production has been the target of successive waves of sanctions. The United States has sought to limit Iran's oil exports since President Donald Trump exited a 2015 nuclear accord between Western powers and Iran in 2018 and re-imposed sanctions aimed at curbing Iran's revenue. During Trump's term, Iran's oil exports slowed to a trickle. They have risen during President Joe Biden's tenure as analysts say sanctions have been less rigorously enforced, Iran has succeeded in evading them, and as China has become a major buyer, according to industry trackers. Although a member of OPEC and OPEC+ - which brings together OPEC and allies, including Russia - Iran, because of the sanctions imposed on it, is exempt from the group's output restrictionsthat are designed to support the oil market. Driven by strong Chinese demand last year and continuing into 2024, Iran's crude exports in March averaged 1.61 million bpd according to industry analysts Kpler, the highest since May 2023 when they were 1.68 million bpd, the highest since 2018. The peaks of 2018 reflected the easing of sanctions that followed the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. Iranian crude and condensate exports reached 2.8 million bpd in May 2018, the highest since at least 2013 according to industry analysts Kpler. In May 2018, the crude oil portion of Iran's exports was 2.51 million bpd, Kpler found. According to OPEC data, that was the most since 2011 when Iran exported 2.54 million bpd on average. Iran's oil production reached all-time highs in the 1970s with a peak of 6.02 million bpd in 1974, according to OPEC data. That amounted to over 10% of world output at the time. Also in May 2018, the United States under Trump's presidency unilaterally withdrew from the 2015 deal and re-imposed sanctions, aiming to cut Iran's oil sales to zero. Iran stopped providing data on its oil exports, but assessments based on tanker tracking show they fell sharply in the next two years to below 200,000 bpd in some months of 2020, the lowest since at least 1980 according to OPEC data. In January-March 2021, China increased its imports of Iranian oil to almost 800,000 bpd in January and almost 1 million bpd in March, although imports dropped again in April of that year. In 2021, Iran and the United States began indirect talks meant to bring both countries back into full compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal. Iranian exports rose during 2022, ending the year above 1 million bpd. Analysts have said the higher exports appear to be partly a result of Iran's success in evading U.S. sanctions. Iran has for years evaded sanctions through ship-to-ship transfers and "spoofing" - or manipulating GPS transponders so that ships show up in different positions - and the country is getting better at such tactics, analysts have said. Analysts have also said the rise in exports appears to be the result of U.S. discretion in enforcing the sanctions.

Oil Markets Were Already Positioned for Iran Attack -- Oil markets were already positioned for Iran’s attack on Israel, analysts at FGE outlined in a flash alert sent to Rigzone. “Over the weekend, Iran launched a missile and drone attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel’s attack on Iran’s consulate buildings in Syria two weeks ago,” the analysts noted in the alert. “The market had been bracing for this scenario, with a huge amount of increased length seen in the market in recent weeks as a result,” they added. The FGE analysts noted in the alert that their base case “assumes that this event marks the peak of escalation in the current conflict and tensions can start to ease from here, albeit slowly”. They also warned that Iran’s attack could end up being the trigger for a very bearish move in oil prices. “As profits are taken and weak length is shaken out, prices should drop from recent highs,” the analysts noted in the alert, adding that there’s potential for prices to drop $5-10 per barrel in the immediate short term. “Following the likely sell off early this week, risk premiums will start to return, and prices will shift back towards $90 per barrel,” the analysts said in the alert. “As we move through 2Q, the market will then start looking toward OPEC+ and what the producer group plans for 3Q,” they added. The FGE analysts highlighted in the alert that their base case “still assumes some easing of cuts in 3Q by OPEC+, although our conviction on this scenario is limited”. “OPEC+ will need to be certain of two things, that U.S. supply growth is done and dusted, and that demand growth is OK,” they said. “Despite firm prices, the latest IEA stocks data for January will not have helped in convincing OPEC+ that these conditions are being met,” they added. The analysts stated in the report that a rollover of cuts and ongoing political risk and trade friction can see prices push higher, “towards $100 per barrel”. In a research note sent to Rigzone on Monday, J.P. Morgan analysts said oil shrugged off Iran’s attack on Israel as geopolitical risk premium was already priced in and revealed the company’s base case for oil remains at $90 Brent through May and $85 in the second half of 2024.

Standard Chartered Says Peak Oil Demand Is Not Imminent - The oil price rally has lately lost some steam, with WTI for May delivery and June Brent futures slipping more than 5% since Friday after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released bearish weekly data that triggered demand concerns. According to the EIA, crude inventories rose 5.84 mb w/w and oil product inventories rose 6.57 mb; however, the builds relative to the five-year average were modest, at just 0.11mb for crude oil and 1.24mb for products. U.S. commercial inventories now stand 16.47mb below the five-year average, with crude inventories at Cushing 7.35 mb below the five-year average. The EIA also estimates U.S. crude oil output clocked in at 13.1 mb/d for a fifth consecutive week, 0.8 mb/d higher y/y but 0.2 mb/d lower than December 2023 production.Whereas the short-term oil price outlook appears murky, leading oil agencies remain largely bullish about the long-term outlook. Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its latest monthly Oil Market Report (OMR), including its first detailed 2025 forecast. The Paris-based energy watchdog predicted that global oil demand in 2025 demand will be 1.147 mb/d higher than 2024 levels, higher than the 1.0 mb/d estimate it had released in June 2023. Other leading agencies have predicted even higher demand growth in 2025: the EIA forecast is 1.351 mb/d, Standard Chartered’s forecast is 1.444 mb/d while the OPEC Secretariat has predicted a 1.847 mb/d increase in demand.Interestingly, over the medium-and long-term, only the IEA sees global oil demand peaking before 2030, even in its most optimistic forecast (high growth). However, the IEA says an oil demand peak doesn’t necessarily mean a rapid plunge in fossil fuel consumption is imminent, adding that it will probably be followed by “an undulating plateau lasting for many years.”The EIA is the most bullish on long-term oil demand, and has predicted a demand peak will come in 2050 while the OPEC Secretariat sees it coming five years earlier. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has predicted global oil demand will hit 110.2 mb/d in 2030 and increase further to 113.5 mb/d in 2035. However, the commodity experts have not projected a demand peak beyond the end of their modeling horizon in 2035. According to StanChart, a structural long-term peak is very unlikely within 10 years despite a high probability of cyclical downturns over the period. StanChart has argued that the current gulf between demand views creates significant investment uncertainty which that’s likely to force longer-term prices higher. In other words, the energy agencies appear to agree that an oil demand peak is nowhere on the horizon.

Oil price news: Oil falls as traders await Israel's response to Iran attack - Oil retreated from last week’s high with traders awaiting Israel’s response to an unprecedented attack from Iran. Ahead of the strike this weekend, crude surged to a five-month high but fell after most of the 300 drones and missiles fired by Iran were intercepted. West Texas Intermediate traded below US$85 a barrel Monday, paring some losses after Axios reported that Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel had no choice but to retaliate against Iran. “At this juncture, the outlook for oil seems to hinge on Israeli response to the attack,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Natasha Kaneva wrote in a note to clients. “Nevertheless, with bellicose rhetoric coming from both sides, markets might continue to place a sizeable premium on the price of oil in the immediate term.” Oil has been one of the strongest performers in commodities this year as OPEC+ keeps a tight rein on supply to drain inventories and support prices. The increase in Middle East tensions has boosted prices in recent weeks, with analysts highlighting the possibility oil could once again hit $100 a barrel. Societe Generale SA revised its forecast notably higher, saying in a note that direct miltary action between the U.S. and Iran could send Brent to $140. Shipping risks have also been in focus after Iran seized a vessel, the MSC Aries, near the key Strait of Hormuz shortly before the strikes against Israel. The ship’s beneficial owner is part of Israel-linked Zodiac Group, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The move raises fresh concerns over the safety of vessels in the region, adding to previous logistical disruptions. WTI for May delivery declined 1.4 per cent to $84.48 a barrel to 11:04 a.m. Brent for June settlement fell 1.3 per cent to $89.23 a barrel.

Oil prices slip after Iran attack, US economic data (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped lower on Monday after Iran's weekend attack on Israel proved to be less damaging than anticipated, easing concerns of a quickly intensifying conflict that could displace crude barrels. Brent futures for June delivery settled at $90.10 a barrel, down 35 cents, or 0.4%. U.S. crude futures for May delivery fell 25 cents, or 0.3%, to end at $85.41 a barrel, Oil dropped by more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session before paring some losses after Reuters reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had summoned his war cabinet for the second time in less than 24 hours, citing a government source. The benchmarks had risen on Friday in anticipation of Iran's retaliatory assault, with prices soaring to their highest since October. Israel's interception of Iran's attack, which involved more than 300 missiles and drones, calmed fears of a regional conflict affecting oil traffic through the Middle East. "The success of the Israeli defense implies that the geopolitical risk has pulled back considerably," Strong U.S retail sales data from the Commerce Department also hindered oil prices, Yawger added, by increasing the likelihood that interest rates in the world's biggest economy would remain higher for longer and reduce demand for oil. "The key term in that whole scenario is demand destruction," In the Middle East, Iran saying it considers its retaliation to be over has further lowered the geopolitical temperature, Meanwhile the Iranian drone and missile attack was "about as telegraphed a world event that people can remember." "They might as well have had big disco lights on them and towed banners with ‘come on, ladies and gentlemen, please shoot me down.’" The attack, which Iran called retaliation for an air strike on its Damascus consulate, caused only modest damage, with missiles shot down by Israel's Iron Dome defence system. Iran produces more than 3 million barrels per day of crude oil as a major producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Middle East hostilities centred on the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza have had little tangible impact on oil supply so far. "If the crisis does not escalate to a point that creates supply disruptions, then there will be downside risk over time, but only once it becomes clear Israel has chosen a measured response," Rising U.S. oil output also weighed on oil prices, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration saying output from top shale-producing regions will climb by more than 16,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 9.86 million bpd, or the highest level in five months.

Oil Futures Fall on Doubt Hostilities Will Disrupt Supply -- Nearest delivered oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Brent on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) ended down Monday, but off session lows, as markets unwound some of the geopolitical risk premium in crude oil prices bid up ahead of the weekend while a resilient U.S. economy is seen delaying interest rate cuts. A sense of uneasy calmness that a broader war in the Middle East might be averted after Israel has so far not retaliated against Iran for Tehran's direct attack over the weekend pressured the international and U.S. crude benchmarks that had rallied to six-month highs on April 12. The attack was expected with Tehran indicating it was in retaliation for the April 1 strike on its consulate in Damascus that killed several military leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps including two generals. Tehran said it considered the matter closed and Israeli allies, including the U.S., counseled Tel Aviv not to retaliate. Any Israeli response should it occur is not expected to target Iranian oil infrastructure. ICE June Brent settled down $0.35 at $90.10 a barrel (bbl) and NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate ended $0.25 lower at $85.41 bbl. Domestically, investors again shifted their expectations for when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would cut the federal funds rate following a Monday morning report from the U.S. Census Bureau showing greater-than-expected U.S. retail sales in March. Sales increased 0.7% in March from an upwardly adjusted February reading to 0.9% while 3.6% above a year ago, indicating consumer spending remains robust. The macroeconomic data prompted the Federal Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow model to call for first-quarter U.S. GDP growth of 2.8%, up from 2.4% on April 10. The retail sales report spurred a rally in the U.S. dollar to a 106.045 5-1/2 month high in index trading against a basket of foreign currencies, with the strong U.S. economy seen delaying interest rate relief by the Federal Reserve. CME FedWatch Tool again finds most investors do not see a reduction in the federal funds rate until September, with a 51.3% probability FOMC will maintain the policy rate in a 5.25% by 5.5% target range at its July meeting, up from 43.5% on Friday. Historically, consumer spending is tied to driving demand and strong economic growth to diesel fuel consumption. However, high interest rates for longer and the cumulative effect of inflation could prompt fewer road trips over the summer driving season while slowing recovery in manufacturing activity. The Federal Reserve of New York Monday morning in its Empire State Manufacturing survey said business activity in New York State continued to decline in early April, restraining demand for the middle-of-the-barrel fuel. NYMEX May ULSD futures settled $0.0309 lower at $2.6542 gallon, while the May RBOB contract ended down $0.0109 at $2.7839 gallon. The gasoline contract rallied to a $2.8516 gallon seven-month high on a spot continuous basis on Friday.

Oil prices up over escalating Middle East tensions, strong demand indicators in China Oil prices rose on Tuesday amid unresolved tensions in the Middle East and better-than-expected economic data from China, the world's largest oil importer. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $90.50 per barrel at 10.45 a.m. local time (0845 GMT), an 0.44% increase from the closing price of $90.10 per barrel in the previous trading session. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $85.56 per barrel at the same time, a 0.17% rise from the previous session that closed at $85.41 per barrel. Early on Monday, Israeli Army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said Israel would respond to the weekend's Iranian attack, which was launched in response to the April 1 attack on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing at least 13 people, including seven military advisers. Following the statement, Iran's deputy foreign minister for political affairs issued a stern warning, saying that any fresh military action by Israel against his country would see a response "within seconds." The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, where the majority of global oil reserves are located, continues to put upward pressure on oil prices, triggering fears of possible supply disruptions in the region. Meanwhile, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Tuesday that China's economy grew above expectations by 5.3% in the first quarter of the year, despite the ongoing decline in the real estate market and weakening domestic demand. Strong economic data from China further supported upward price movements by indicating strong oil demand in the country. However, uncertainty over the timing of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate limits upward price trends. Analysts are certain that the Fed will leave the policy rate unchanged in May, while the probability of the bank starting a rate cut fell to 20% in June and 40% in July. The probability of the Fed's first rate cut in September stands at 72%. “We will need to start a process at some point to bring interest rates back to more normal levels, and my own view is that process will likely start this year,” New York Fed President John Williams said Monday. Williams added that he did not see the latest inflation data as a "turning point" but noted that the figures will affect his own views and forecasts. The possibility of a rate cut suppressed oil prices, as generally high interest rates boost the value of the US dollar, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The Market's Perceived Risk to Supply Eased - The oil market traded lower for a second day on Tuesday as the market’s perceived risk to Middle East supply eased. The market was also weighed down by a stronger than expected U.S. retail sales report for March that further reinforced expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is unlikely to rush to cut interest rates. Overnight, the crude market rallied to a high of $86.18 following economic data indicating that China’s economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter. The market was also supported by Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi stating that Iran would respond to any action against its interests after Israel on Monday warned it would respond to Iran’s weekend drone and missile attack. However, the market gave up its gains and traded to a low of $84.75 following the U.S. retail sales report. The market later traded back above the $85.00 level and settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The May WTI contract settled down 5 cents at $85.36 and the June Brent contract settled down 8 cents at $90.02. The product markets settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 29 points at $2.6513 and the RB market settling up 3.84 cents at $2.8223. Israelis awaited word on how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would respond to Iran's first-ever direct attack as international pressure for restraint grew amid fears of an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. On Monday, Prime Minister Netanyahu summoned his war cabinet for the second time in less than 24 hours to weigh a response to Iran's weekend missile and drone attack. Military Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said Israel would respond but provided no details. Meanwhile, Iran’s President, Ebrahim Raisi, said Iran will respond to any action against its interests, a day after Israel warned it will respond to Tehran's weekend drone and missile attack. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Ali Bagheri Kani, told state TV on Monday night that Tehran's counteroffensive following any Israeli retaliation would be "a matter of seconds as Iran will not wait for another 12 days to respond". U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Iran's actions threaten stability in the Middle East and could cause economic spillovers. She said the U.S. would use sanctions, and work with allies, to keep disrupting Iran's "malign and destabilizing activity." She said Iran’s oil exports “remains in focus as a possible area that we could address.” Iran's Deputy Oil Minister, Morteza Shahmirzaei, said that his country was working to ensure that energy exports in the Middle East region are carried out without interruption after an attack on Israel. White House senior adviser John Podesta said U.S. President Joe Biden will do what he can to ensure affordable gasoline prices, when asked about future releases of crude oil from the SPR. Goldman Sachs said it expects oil prices to remain at the higher end of its forecast range, citing disappointing U.S. supply and a likely sticky geopolitical risk premium. HSBC sees a higher probability that OPEC+ will begin to unwind part of its supply cuts in the third quarter given high oil prices.

WTI Rally Stalls On Crude Build, White House Hints At SPR Release Oil prices fell for the second day in a row (albeit very modestly today) as the 'WW3-on / WW3-off' headline-swings (supply) are wearing on traders, and less-and-less dovish expectations for The Fed weigh on demand expectations"Oil traders are hunkering down as bears are increasingly afraid to bet on lower prices," At the same time, "bulls are pulling in their horns until they get clarity on what the Israeli response may be."Oil traders are waiting to see how the "diplomatic push for Israel to show restraint pays off," .Traders are expecting another crude build (the fourth in a row, albeit small), and a return to gasoline draws... API

• Crude +4.09mm (+600k exp)
• Cushing -169k
• Gasoline -2.51mm (-1.0mm exp)
• Distillates -427k (-400k exp)

API reported a much bigger than expected crude build (and offset that with a large gasoline draw)...WTI was hovering around $85.3 ahead of the API print and was thoroughly unimpressed by the mixed inventory data...

WTI Down For 3rd Day After Crude Inventory Build (Thanks To Surge In 'Adjustment Factor') Oil prices are extending their decline (third day in a row) this morning as, after a tumultuous period of geopolitics, traders are returning their focus to market fundamentals. A lack (so far) of response from Israel to Iran's retaliatory attack combined withThe American Petroleum Institute reporting a gain in US stockpiles before government data later Wednesday has key timespreads weakening in recent days, pointing to softening sentiment. DOE

• Crude +2.375mm (+600k exp)
• Cushing +33k
• Gasoline -1.154mm (-1.0mm exp)
• Distillates -2.76mm (-400k exp)

Crude stocks rose for the fourth straight week (well above expectations - but smaller than API), but that was offset by sizable product draws. Cushing stocks were flat...And in case you wondered, the 'ol 'adjustment factor' is back... to its highest in 2024...Source: Bloomberg The Biden administration continued (for now) to add to the SPR (see below for why that may end soon)... Graphs: Bloomberg US crude production was flat - near record highs WTI was trading around $84.40 ahead of the official data (though had been chopping around prior) However, Joe and Jerome still have a problem as pump-prices just keep going higher... President Biden “wants to keep the price of gasoline affordable, and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens,” White House senior adviser John Podesta says at the BloombergNEF Summit in New York, responding to a question about a potential release of oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve amid forecasts that already rising prices at the pump will spike this summer.

Oil down with US stockpile build signaling low demand -- Oil prices declined on Wednesday, with data indicating lower demand in the US, the world's biggest oil consumer, outweighing supply concerns from tension in the Middle East, Azernews reports, citing Anadolu Agency. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $89.72 per barrel at 11.13 a.m. local time (0811 GMT), a 0.33% fall from the closing price of $90.02 per barrel in the previous trading session. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $85.02 per barrel at the same time, a 0.40% drop from the previous session that closed at $85.36 per barrel. Prices declined during early Asian trade following the release of data reflecting bearish demand in the US. The American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday announced an estimated increase of 4.09 million barrels in US crude oil inventories, against the market prediction of a draw of 1.6 million barrels. Official statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later in the day, and if a buildup in crude and gasoline stockpiles is revealed, prices are expected to fall further. Uncertainty over when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will start interest rate cuts continues to influence oil prices. Analysts expect that the Fed will keep the policy rate unchanged in May, while the probability that the bank will start reducing interest rates decreased to 15% in June and 42% in July. The probability of the Fed's first interest rate cut in September is evaluated at 67%. Meanwhile, concerns over the spread of the conflict in the Middle East, home to the majority of the world's oil reserves, hindered price declines. Israel carried out an air attack on Iran's consulate building in Damascus on April 1. A total of seven people from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Army, including two generals, died in the attack. On April 13, Iran launched an attack on Israel with hundreds of kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles and ballistic and cruise missiles. Tension in the Middle East increased on Monday as Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi declared that Israel would retaliate against the Iranian attack. ---

The Oil Market Continued its Sell Off for the Third Consecutive Session -- The oil market continued its sell off for the third consecutive session on Wednesday as geopolitical concerns eased in the wake of the weekend attacks by Iran on Israel. The market was also pressured by the builds reported in U.S. crude stocks. The market opened lower and posted a high of $85.51 in overnight trading before it continued to trend lower. The API reported a build of 4.1 million barrels late Tuesday afternoon, while the EIA on Wednesday morning reported a build of over 2.7 million barrels on the week. The crude market retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $80.30 to a high of $87.67 as it sold off to a low of $82.55 in afternoon trading. The market also seemed to remain pressured after Federal Reserve officials including Fed Chair Jerome Powell backed away on Tuesday from providing any guidance on when interest rates may be cut and stated that monetary policy needs to be restrictive for longer due to a recent stronger-than-expected inflation readings. The oil market traded sideways during the remainder of the session, with the May WTI contract settled down $2.67 at $82.69 and the June Brent contract settling down $2.73 at $87.29. The product markets ended sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 7.66 cents at $2.5747 and the RB market settling down 9.36 cents at $2.7287. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil inventories in the week ending April 12th increased by 2.735 million barrels to 460 million barrels. U.S. Gulf Coast crude stocks increased by 3.4 million barrels in the week ending April 12th to 260.9 million barrels, the most since April 2023. The EIA report showed that U.S. weekly imports of Mexican crude fell to the lowest level on record for the second consecutive week as Mexico’s Pemex cut exports to supply more crude to its domestic refineries. Imports from Mexico fell to 208,000 bpd in the week ending April 12th. Mexican crude imports had fallen to 209,000 bpd in the first week of April, compared with average imports of about 733,000 bpd in 2023. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said Israel will make its own decisions about how to defend itself, as western countries urged restraint in responding to Iran’s retaliatory attacks. The Prime Minister met with German and British foreign ministers, who both traveled to Israel as part of a coordinated push to keep confrontation between Israel and Iran from escalating into a regional conflict fueled by the Gaza war. The U.S. has stated that it is planning to impose new sanctions targeting Iran’s missile and drone program in the coming days and expects its allies to follow suit. Senior U.S. officials said the U.S. will not renew a license set to expire on Thursday that had eased oil sanctions imposed on Venezuela, moving to reimpose punitive measures in response to President Nicolas Maduro’s failure to meet certain election commitments. The U.S. Treasury Department announced that it had issued a replacement license giving companies 45 days to “wind down” their business and transactions in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector. IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.4 million bpd of capacity in the week ending April 19th, increasing available refining capacity by 8,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 988,000 bpd in the week ending April 26th.

Oil settles down 3% as demand worries outweigh Middle East supply risks Oil prices settled down 3% on Wednesday, pressured by a rise in U.S. commercial inventories, weaker economic data from China and U.S. progress on Ukraine and Israel aid bills. Brent futures for June settled down $2.73, or 3%, at $87.29 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures for May settled down $2.67 or 3.1% at $82.69 a barrel, their biggest fall since March 20. Oil prices have softened this week as economic headwinds curb gains from geopolitical tensions, with markets eying how Israel might respond to Iran's weekend attack. Analysts do not expect Iran's unprecedented missile and drone strike on Israel to prompt dramatic U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil exports. U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels to 460 million barrels last week, government data showed, nearly double analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.4 million-barrel build. Oil prices continued to decline after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson said the text of four bills providing assistance to Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific would be filed "soon today," with a fourth with "other measures to confront Russia, China and Iran" posted later in the day. "The market was waiting to sell off on indications of calming of tensions in the Middle East ... progress on these bills and a three-day delay in Israel's response to Iran is helping today," Top Federal Reserve officials including Chair Jerome Powell backed away on Tuesday from providing any guidance on when interest rates may be cut, dashing investors' hopes for meaningful reductions in borrowing costs this year. Britain's inflation rate slowed by less than expected in March, signaling that a first rate cut by the Bank of England could also be further off than previously thought. However, inflation slowed across the euro zone last month, reinforcing expectations for a European Central Bank rate cut in June. "A strengthening trend in the US dollar and the ability of crude stocks to increase in the face of reduced Mexican imports and increasing SPR refills are also sending off some bearish vibes," In China, the world's biggest oil importer, the economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but several other indicators showed that demand at home remains frail. Elsewhere, Tengizchevroil announced plans for scheduled maintenance at one of six production trains at the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan in May. .

Oil prices down on Thursday amid weak demand, rising hopes of end to Middle East conflict - Oil prices decreased on Thursday following data indicating weak oil demand in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, and the growing opposition to the conflict in Palestine. International benchmark Brent crude traded at $86.77 per barrel at 11.17 a.m. local time (0817 GMT), a 0.6% fall from the closing price of $87.29 per barrel in the previous trading session. The American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $82.03 per barrel at the same time, a 0.8% drop from the previous session that closed at $82.69 per barrel. Data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday suggested an increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, putting downward pressure on oil prices. US inventories rose by around 1.1 million barrels to 2.7 million barrels, compared to the market expectation of an increase of around 1.6 million barrels. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Thursday that his country supports Palestine's bid for full UN membership. "The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has caused a humanitarian disaster," the state-run Global Times quoted Wang as saying. He called for an “immediate and unconditional” cease-fire and the swift establishment of a humanitarian aid mechanism to prevent further escalation. The Palestinian application for full UN membership comes amid Israel's deadly offensive on the Gaza Strip, which has killed nearly 33,900 people since an Oct. 7 Hamas attack that has claimed 1,200 lives. By taking a stance against the war in Palestine, other countries increased expectations of an end to the conflict and reduced supply risks in the Middle East. In solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza, Yemen's Houthi group has been targeting cargo ships in the Red Sea owned or operated by Israeli companies that are transporting goods to and from Israel. A US-led coalition has conducted intermittent airstrikes since Jan. 12 targeting Houthi sites inside Yemen in response to the attacks in the region. The US dollar's decline against other currencies also helped to support oil prices by promoting trade with cheaper oil for other currency holders. The US dollar index fell to 105.79, a fall of 0.16%

The Oil Market Ended Slightly Higher on Thursday After it Saw Some Further Unwinding of the Geopolitical Risk Premium - The oil market ended the session slightly higher on Thursday after it saw some further unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium early in the session. The market was also pressured early in the session as it focused on fundamentals following the EIA weekly petroleum stock report on Wednesday showing a build of over 2.7 million barrels in crude stocks. In overnight trading, the market traded sideways before further selling pushed the market to a low of $81.56, a level not seen since the end of March. However, the crude market bounced off that level and retraced some of its previous losses as it rallied to a high of $83.47 in afternoon trading. The May WTI contract settled up 4 cents at $82.73, while the June Brent contract settled down 18 cents at $87.11. The product markets remained in negative territory for the fourth consecutive session, with the heating oil market settling down 4.08 cents at $2.5339 and the RB market settling down 1.5 cents at $2.7137. White House economic adviser, Lael Brainard, said the Biden administration wants to keep gas prices within current ranges as the United States heads into its summer driving season.A U.S. official said senior U.S. and Israeli officials will hold a virtual meeting on Thursday about Israel's plans for the southern Gaza city of Rafah as Washington seeks alternatives to an Israeli offensive. President Joe Biden has urged Israel not to conduct a large-scale offensive in Rafah to avoid more Palestinian civilian casualties in Gaza. The meeting comes as Israel considers launching an attack on Iranian targets in response to Iran's launching of drones and ballistic missiles last weekend against Israel.A senior Iranian official warned that Iran could world on building nuclear weapons if Israel attacks its nuclear facilities. Brigadier General Ahmad Haghtalab, the commander for security of Iran’s nuclear facilities, said Iran could change its nuclear policies, a reference to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s pledge not to build nuclear weapons. He warned Iran would retaliate against Israeli nuclear sites if Israel hits Iran’s nuclear facilities.Later, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, told the U.N. Security Council that Israel “must be compelled to stop any further military adventurism against our interests” as the U.N. Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, warned that the Middle East was in a “moment of maximum peril.” The Secretary General urged maximum restraint. Data from the Environmental Protection Agency showed the United States generated fewer renewable fuel blending credits in March versus the previous month. According to the data, about 1.19 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in March, down from 1.21 billion in February. Biodiesel (D4) blending credits generated in March fell to about 648 million from about 743 million in February.

Crude Oil Price Surges As Israel Attacks Iran -- Crude oil prices surged globally on Friday in response to Israel’s strike on Iran. The Middle East battle has been going on longer than expected, and allegations of an Israeli attack in the Iranian city of Isfahan early on Friday have caused supply worries. The price of ICE Brent crude increased by 1% to $88 per barrel over the previous trading day. At the same moment, the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $83.73 per barrel, up 1.2% from the previous session’s closing price of $82.73 per barrel. The bulk of the world’s oil reserves are found in the Middle East, where growing tensions have led to worries about serious supply problems that have supported higher oil prices. According to US and Iranian media, Israel carried out a strike inside Iran in response to Iran’s attack on Israel with hundreds of kamikaze unmanned aerial vehicles and ballistic and cruise missiles on April 13. Iran’s official state TV confirmed ‘massive explosions’ in the central Isfahan province but noted that no nuclear facilities were affected or targeted. The semi-official Mehr News Agency reported that three drones were destroyed in the skies above Isfahan province. The Israeli military has not commented on the reported attack yet but said a security meeting is currently underway at Israel’s Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv. Pipeline Vandalism: CDS, Others Plan Security Summit Meanwhile, the US, a permanent member of the United Nations (UN) Security Council, vetoed the draft resolution authored by Algeria on Thursday, demanding Palestine’s full membership in the UN. Palestine’s application for full UN membership amid a deadly Israeli offensive on Gaza was blocked with a vote of 12 in favor and two abstentions, including the UK and Switzerland. A council resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the five permanent members to pass. The US began imposing sanctions once more on Venezuela, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and revoked its authorization to export oil to international markets, which further shored up prices. Businesses will be forced to either apply for individual licenses from the US Department of Treasury or cease doing business with Venezuela by the end of May. This move is expected to drive up costs by inciting supply concerns.

Oil settles slightly higher as Iran plays down reported Israeli attack (Reuters) - Oil settled slightly higher on Friday, but posted a weekly decline, after Iran played down a reported Israeli attack on its soil, a sign that an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East might be avoided. Brent futures settled up 18 cents, or 0.21%, at $87.29 a barrel. The front month U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude contract for May ended 41 cents higher, or 0.5%, to $83.14 a barrel. The more active June contract closed 12 cents higher at $82.22 a barrel. Both benchmarks spiked more than $3 a barrel earlier in the session after explosions were heard in the Iranian city of Isfahan in what sources described as an Israeli attack. However, the gains were capped after Tehran played down the incident and said it did not plan to retaliate. Investors had been closely monitoring Israel's response to Iranian drone and missile attacks on April 13 that was in turn a response to a presumed Israeli air strike on April 1 that destroyed a building in Iran's embassy compound in Damascus. Meanwhile, U.S. lawmakers have added sanctions on Iran's oil exports to a pending Ukraine aid package after Tehran's strike on Israel last weekend. Iran is the third largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), according to Reuters data. The International Monetary Fund expects OPEC+ to begin increasing oil output from July, media reported on Friday. OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, last month agreed to extend voluntary output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of June. That has helped keep oil prices elevated. As oil's risk premium has gradually unwound, prices have fallen around 3% since Monday. Both benchmarks posted their biggest weekly loss since February. Investors, however, are not ruling out the possibility that Middle Eastern tensions will disrupt supply. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Commerzbank raised their Brent crude forecasts on Friday, taking into account geopolitical tensions as well as the prospect of rising demand and restrained supply by OPEC and allies (OPEC+). "Oil demand is growing at a healthy pace, and supply should be constrained due to the extensions of the voluntary production cuts of OPEC+," U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in five weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by 2 to 619 in the week to April 19. Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to April 16, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

An Already Bad Situation in the Red Sea Just Got Worse -The seizure of a container ship by Iran in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday is extremely concerning and threatens to put trade lanes in the Middle East at risk, Xeneta said in a release sent to Rigzone. “It has been reported that the MSC Aries was seized by Iran Revolutionary Guards 50 nautical miles (92km) northeast of Fujairah, an area close to the Strait of Hormuz that forms the entrance to the Arabian Gulf,” Xeneta, which describes itself as the leading ocean freight rate benchmarking and intelligence platform, stated in the release. “The latest incident follows ongoing conflict in the Red Sea region - the gateway to the Suez Canal - which has seen ocean freight container ships avoiding the area due to missile attacks by Houthi militia,” it added. Peter Sand, a Chief Analyst at Xeneta, said in the release, “an already bad situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has just got worse and could put ocean freight container imports and oil exports in the Middle East at risk”. “We don’t yet know the full details of the incident in the Strait of Hormuz, but any widening of the conflict, which has already resulted in huge disruption to ocean freight services in the Red Sea region, would be extremely concerning,” he added. “For example, Dubai is a regional hub for imports as well as sea-air corridors, with containers arriving by ocean via the Strait of Hormuz for onward travel by air to Europe and North America. If ships are impacted from sailing into the Arabian Gulf then the disruption would be considerable,” he continued. A statement posted on the official X account of the White House National Security Council Spokesperson said, “we strongly condemn the Iranian seizure of the Portuguese flagged, British-owned MSC Aries in international waters”. “The crew is comprised of Indian, Filipino, Pakistani, Russian, and Estonian nationals. We call on Iran to release the vessel and its international crew immediately,” it added. “Seizing a civilian vessel without provocation is a blatant violation of international law, and an act of piracy by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization,” it continued. “It must be condemned unequivocally and we will work with our partners to hold Iran to account for its actions,” it went on to note.

Israel's Missile Defense Against Iran Attack Estimated to Cost Over $1 Billion - The activation of Israeli air defenses in response to an overnight Iranian drone and missile attack likely cost over $1 billion, according to Brig. Gen. Reem Aminoach, former financial advisor to the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff.The Iranian attack, which came in response to Israel bombing Iran’s consulate in Damascus, led to Israel activating several types of air defense systems, including the Arrow, David’s Sling, and the Iron Dome.“If we’re talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs, which we actually bring down mainly with airplanes—then add up the costs—$3.5 million for an Arrow missile, $1 million for a David’s Sling, and such and such costs for airplanes. An order of magnitude of 4-5 billion shekels ($1-1.3 billion),” Aminoach told Ynet. The US, the UK, and Jordan also helped Israel intercept drones. Israel claimed that 99% of the over 300 missiles and drones fired by Iran were intercepted, but some got through and damaged the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel. Only one person was reported injured by the attack on Israel, a seven-year-old Bedouin girl who was hit with shrapnel, and no one was killed.For the Iranian side, launching the attacks cost significantly less than Israel’s defense. According to Middle East Eye, some estimates put the number at less than 10% of what it cost Israel to defend itself from the attack.On Sunday, Iranian Foreign Minister Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said the Iranian attack on Israel was “limited” and said it only targeted military sites. “We sent a message early this morning to the White House and stated that this was a limited operation with minimum force only to secure our rights on legitimate defense and to punish the Israeli regime,” he said.

Iran hails Israel attack as a 'victory' — From President Ebrahim Raisi on down, Iranian officials are heaping praise on the attack the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corpslaunched against Israel Sunday. The widespread response comes despite Israel saying 99% of Iran's missiles and drones were intercepted. Raisi said the IRGC had "taught a lesson to the Zionist entity," using Tehran's preferred term for Israel.Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency reported that a top Iranian lawmaker, Mojtaba Zonnouri, said the IRGC's "punitive operation" was a "victory" and "was a cause of pride for the people as it humiliated the Israeli regime." At the United Nations in New York, Iran's Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani declared the operation was "completely in line with the Islamic Republic's inherent right to self-defense" after an airstrike in Damascus killed seven IRGC members, including two generals, on April 1. Iran blames Israel for the strike, but Israel has not claimed responsibility for it.Iravani added that Iran's missiles exclusively targeted "military objectives" and said Iran had "no intention of engaging in conflict with the U.S."Iran's English-language Press TV news site led with a story based on anonymous IRGC sources who claimed that "all hypersonic missiles in Iran's strikes against Israel hit targets." That claim could not immediately be confirmed.

Israel’s chief says it will respond to Iran’s missile strike (AP) — Israel’s military chief said Monday that his country will respond to Iran’s weekend attack, but he did not elaborate on when and how as world leaders urged against retaliation, trying to avoid a spiral of violence in the Middle East. The Iranian attack on Saturday came in response to a suspected Israeli strike two weeks earlier on an Iranian consular building in the Syrian capital of Damascus that killed two Iranian generals. It marked the first time Iran has launched a direct military assault on Israel despite decades of enmity dating back to the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. Iran launched hundreds of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles at Israel in the attack. The Israeli military said that 99% of the drones and missiles were intercepted, by Israel’s own air defenses and warplanes and in coordination with a U.S.-led coalition of partners. Israeli military chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said Monday that Israel is considering its next steps but that the Iranian strike “will be met with a response.”Halevi gave no details. The army’s spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, said Israel will respond “at the time that we choose.”

Ex-Mossad Chief Says Hitting Iran's Nuclear Facilities 'On The Table' - Several statements were issued by Iranian leaders on Wednesday as they attended a military parade at a base north of Tehran which featured displays of attack drones and ballistic missiles, just days after Iran's unprecedented Saturday night attack on Israel.The head of Iran's military, Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, addressed the army gathering saying, "Currently, we are in a state of readiness to deal with possible evils, and what we displayed throughout the country today was a small part of our capabilities," as cited in state media.President Ebrahim Raisi was also present at the same annual military parade. He warned that even the "tiniest invasion" or attack by Israel will result in a "massive and harsh" response. Shortly after Raisi's firm warning, an interview was published by Sky News in which a former Israeli Mossad intelligence chief declared that as part of Israel's retaliation currently being mulled by the Netanyahu government, striking Iranian nuclear facilities"is on the table."The former director of the spy agency, named Zohar Palti, described that he has "no doubt" that PM Netanyahu could "attack sensitive facilities" in Iran as some cabinet ministers are urging it.Palti further said the question of deciding the timing of Israel's retaliation operation is "still ongoing" and that some officials are urging Netanyahu to attack "as soon as possible." However, others in Tuesday's war cabinet meeting argued for getting international backing especially from Western partners.While Tehran boasts of having "changed the equation in terms of establishing deterrence, The Wall Street Journal aptly describes the current state of things, and the possibility of miscalculation, as follows:Israel’s military has long followed a clear policy: When enemies strike, hit back so hard they won’t do it again. That deterrence is no longer working.Iran, after launching a massive missile-and-drone attack on Israel over the weekend, is threatening to strike again if Israel retaliates. Lebanese militia Hezbollah fires at Israeli forces almost every day despite frequent poundings by Israel. And Hamas continues to launch rockets at Israel even after being bludgeoned following its Oct. 7 attacks, which killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli officials.With no side willing to compromise for fear of showing weakness and all players seeking greater deterrence, the risk of stumbling into a regional war increases.

Israel's Latest Lie Is That It Has 'No Choice' But To Attack Iran -- by Caitlin Johnstone -- In an article titled “Israel vows to retaliate against Iran for missile attacks,” Axios reports that the Israeli defense minister has informed his American counterpart that Israel “has no choice” but to attack Iran for the retaliatory strike it launched in response to Israel’s deadly attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus.“Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin Sunday that Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend,” reports Axios, citing an anonymous US official and another unnamed source.The state of Israel has been churning out massive lies on a daily basis for the last six months, but this whopper could wind up being the most consequential.Obviously Israel has a choice as to whether it continues to escalate a conflict it initiated with an extreme act of aggression. This fraudulent apartheid ethnostate is so accustomed to crying victim every minute of every day that it will even pretend to be the victim of its own conscious decisions. As professor Jason Hickel put it on Twitter, “People need to understand that Israel *does not* need to retaliate. Iran’s action was a telegraphed response to Israel’s bombing of its consulate, which killed 16 people and violated the Vienna Convention. Iran says they now consider the matter closed. Israel must de-escalate.”Iran’s deputy foreign minister Ali Bagheri has made it clear that if Israel launches another attack against Iran, this time Iran’s response will be instantaneous instead of a twelve-day grace period with Tehran giving neighboring countries and the United States a 72-hour advance warning to ensure minimal damage to Israel.Predictably, the Biden administration is doing its usual phony schtick where it pretends to be a passive witness to all this, with National Security spokesman John Kirby telling the press that the White House plans to just “wait and see what the Israelis decide to do.”

King Abdullah Warns Israel He Won't Let Jordan Become "The Theater Of A Regional War" The threat of a broader Middle East-wide war looms as Israel mulls retaliation for the massive weekend Iran drone and missile attack, but so far on Tuesday regional actors are strongly signaling they want to see a return to the status quo. Saudi Arabia has rejected reports that its military shot down some of the inbound drones and missiles launched from Iran Saturday night. "There is no official website that published a statement about Saudi participation in intercepting attacks against Israel," Saudi government sources told Al Arabiya, after Israeli media claims circulated. Jordan too is seeking to present itself as a neutral power in the conflict, despite confirming over the weekend that it did shoot down some projectiles sent from Iran that flew into its airspace during the earlier attack. A statement from Jordan's cabinet had further clarified: "Some shrapnel fell in multiple places during that time without causing any significant damage or any injuries to citizens."On Tuesday, Jordan's King Abdullah II weighed in, saying he does not want to see his country become "the theater of a regional war" following the intercepts. "The king reinforced the nation's commitment to upholding its security and sovereignty above all other considerations. He stressed Jordan's aim was to safeguard its own sovereignty rather than defend Israel," according to a regional outlet. Still, Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi had some strong words for Israel and the international community, saying external powers should stop Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from "stealing" attention away from Gaza as he mulls escalation with a retaliatory attack aimed at Tehran. Even the Biden administration is strongly signaling to Israel that things must return to the status quo, even as threatening words continued to be issued between Tehran and Tel Aviv.On the diplomatic front, each side is seeking to get the backing of the international community, as Al Jazeera writes:Israel has launched a “diplomatic offensive” against Iran, calling for sanctions against the Islamic republic.Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday that he has contacted 32 countries calling on them to impose sanctions against Tehran. The move comes as Israel mulls a military response to Iran’s attack on Israel. But Iran has continually lambasted the United Nations Security Council for failing to stop the escalating conflict, given there was no formal condemnation of the initial April 1st Israeli attack on Iran's embassy in Damascus. China too is urging stability and that there be no further escalation... China and Russia, however, have by and large stood by Iran's side in supporting failed efforts at getting the UNSC to issue condemnation of the attack which flattened an Iranian consulate building in the Syrian capital. Israel is vowing that Iran won't get off 'scot-free' but it's still unknown what happens next as far as a potential Israeli 'limited' strike on Iran or its proxies goes.

Iran fires at suspected Israeli drones near air base, nuclear site - Iran fired at drones suspected to be part of an Israeli attack near a major air base and nuclear site near the city of Isfahan early Friday.Air defense batteries were activated after reports of explosions near the air base, The Associated Press reported.The New York Times reported that television networks and officials in both countries downplayed the significance of the strike. Israeli officials said it was a limited response aimed to avoid escalating tensions with Iran, especially because it did not cause significant damage to military sites in Iran.Iranian officials told the Times that the strike had hit a military air base near Isfahan, but Brig. General Siavash Mihandoust, the senior military official in the city, told local television that any explosions heard Friday were from Iran shooting down “flying objects.”An Iranian official told Reuters there were no plans to respond against Israel.During a press conference in Capri, Italy, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. has “not been involved in any offensive operations” when asked about the suspected Israeli strikes, calling them “reported events.”Italy’s foreign minister also said the U.S. told Group of Seven ministers that it had been informed “at the last minute” by Israel about the drones.“But there was no sharing of the attack by the U.S. It was … mere information,” Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani added.The air base in Isfahan has been home to Iran’s fleet of American-made F-14 Tomcats, purchased before the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The facility in Iran operates three Chinese-supplied research reactors and handles fuel production for the country’s civilian nuclear program, the AP noted.

Former Defense secretary: Silence ‘deafening’ after Israel’s strike on Iran -Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper called Iran’s silence “deafening” after Israel struck near a major air base and nuclear site in the city of Isfahan early Friday.“This morning, the silence — from both sides, frankly — is deafening,” Esper, who served under former President Trump, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Friday. “That nobody’s talking about what happened.”“So, I think, this appears to be the end of it right now. But we’ll see,” he continued.Iran’s air defense batteries were activated after reports of explosions near the air base, but both sides have downplayed the significance of the strike in the hours since.Israeli officials told The New York Times that it was a limited response aimed to avoid escalating tensions with Iran, especially because it did not cause significant damage to Iranian military sites. An Iranian official told Reuters that there were no plans to respond against Israel.During a press conference in Capri, Italy, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. has “not been involved in any offensive operations” when asked about the suspected Israeli airstrikes, calling them “reported events.”Italy’s foreign minister said the U.S. told Group of Seven ministers that it had been informed “at the last minute” by Israeli officials about the drones, but there was “no sharing of the attack by the U.S.”Esper said he thinks the Israeli strikes, which were in response to Iran’s retaliatory attack last Saturday, was merely to send a message about the country’s capabilities.“The message being we can touch you, we can reach deep into Iran and we can hit very sensitive sites because Isfahan, as your reporters noted earlier, is where there’s a significant part of the Iran nuclear complex,” he said.The air base in Isfahan has been home to Iran’s feet of American-made F-14 Tomcats. The facility also operates three Chinese-supplies research reactors and handles fuel production for the country’s civilian nuclear program.

Report: Iran Attack Delays Israel's Invasion of Rafah - Iran’s reprisal attack on Israel has delayed Israeli plans to invade the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah, CNN reported on Monday, citing Israeli sources.The sources said that the Israeli Air Force was set to drop leaflets on Rafah on Monday to tell the more than 1 million civilians who are in the city that an offensive was coming. But the plan was put on hold as the Israeli War Cabinet is debating how to respond to Iran firing over 300 missiles and drones at Israeli territory, which came in response to Israel bombing Iran’s consulate in Damascus.The US has claimed it’s opposed to an Israeli invasion of Rafah since it would incur huge civilian casualties and further disrupt aid coming in from Egypt. But the fact that Israel was planning to drop leaflets on the city demonstrates that President Biden is not putting any real pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.US officials said last week that Israel has not presented any proposals on how to account for the safety of the more than 1 million civilians who are sheltering in the city, which has a pre-war population of about 275,000.The Israeli sources told CNN that they still plan to launch a full-scale assault on Rafah but are not sure when. The Israeli War Cabinet is focusing on how to respond to Iran and has agreed that an attack will happen, but it’s unclear where or when.

Israeli Forces Kill Five Palestinians Trying To Return to North Gaza - Five Palestinians were killed and 52 were wounded on Sunday when Israeli forces opened fire on a crowd trying to return to northern Gaza, The Associated Press reported, citing officials at the Awda Hospital in central Gaza.Thousands of displaced Palestinians attempted to return to northern Gaza on Sunday after they heard rumors that Israeli forces were allowing people in. But their hopes were dashed as Israeli troops opened fire on a crowd, and the Israeli military issued a new warning not to attempt to make the trek north. Israeli military spokesman Avichay Adraee wrote on X that northern Gaza is a “dangerous combat zone” and said all displaced Palestinians should stay in the south.While the UN estimates up to 84% of the homes in northern Gaza have been damaged or destroyed, Palestinians who fled the area six months ago are tired of being displaced and want to return. “We want our homes. We want our lives. We want to return, whether with a truce or without a truce,” said Um Nidhal Khatab, a Palestinian who spoke with AP. The issue of displaced Palestinians has been a major obstacle in indirect ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel. Hamas wants the free movement of Palestinians in the Strip so those who desire can return north, but Israel has rejected the condition.

Israel Has Destroyed Nearly All Buildings in Gaza 'Buffer Zone' - Israel has destroyed nearly every building in Gaza along the Strip’s border with Israel to create a “buffer zone,” a plan that will result in Israel taking a significant chunk of Gaza’s territory.A report from the United Nations Satellite Center found that Israel has destroyed or damaged 90% of the buildings in Gaza within 1 kilometer of the border as of February 29. It found that 3,033 buildings were completely demolished, 327 were seriously damaged, and 266 were moderately damaged.According to Haaretz, the real number of demolished buildings is likely higher since Israeli forces are actually creating the buffer zone 1,200 meters within Gaza, 200 meters further inside the Strip than what the UN examined.According to an analysis from Adi Ben Nun, a Hebrew University geography professor, Israel’s buffer zone will take 16% of Gaza’s territory. Besides demolishing any buildings that are in the way, Israeli forces are also destroying agricultural land.Israeli officials have framed the buffer zone as necessary to prevent a future October 7-style attack, but it’s likely part of Israel’s long-term plans to control Gaza and potentially establish Jewish settlements in the Strip, an idea strongly supported by many Israeli ministers and Knesset members.

How Ultranationalist Zionists Seek the Destruction of the Al Aqsa Mosque to Produce the End Times - While we are consumed with the horrors of Gaza, other events in Jerusalem are gathering momentum that could plunge the Middle East into a conflict that could inflame the region for a generation.The Al-Aqsa Mosque is the third holiest site in Islam. It was from here that the Prophet Mohamed ascended into heaven and conversed with other prophets such as Abraham, Moses and Jesus. And now, American Evangelical Christians, together with Ultranationalist Israeli Zionists (many of whom are also American) intend to destroy it to make way for the building of the 3^rd Jewish Temple and the coming of the Messiah.It may surprise you to learn that there are currently more Zionist Christians than there are Zionist Jews in the US – most estimates put forward a ratio of 10 Zionist Christians to every Zionist Jew. Much of this can be put down to the popularity of the Scofield bible, first published in the early 1900s. The bible itself was the standard King James Bible, but what set the Scofield Bible apart were his copious notes or the “explainer” (Hasbara in Hebrew) as Scofield himself called it; wherein, he put his own explanations as to the meaning of the scriptural text.Scofield was described by his local newspaper, the Atchison Patriot as the “late lawyer, politician and shyster generally,” the article went on to recount a few of Scofield’s “many malicious acts,” including a whole series of forgeries in St. Louis, for which he got six months in jail.But then he saw the light and became a (non-ordained) Christian preacher and as such was taken under the wing of a prominent Jewish Wall Street lawyer, Samuel Untermeyer, who provided him with money, contacts and entry to New York society. In return, Untermeyer required that Scofield write a bible in such a way as to align Christians with Untermeyer’s pet project, Zionism.In “Unjust War Theory: Christian Zionism and the Road to Jerusalem,” Prof. David W. Lutz writes, “Untermeyer used Scofield, a Kansas City lawyer with no formal training in theology, to inject Zionist ideas into American Protestantism. Untermeyer and other wealthy and influential Zionists whom he introduced to Scofield promoted and funded the latter’s career, including travel in Europe.” It was during one such trip that he met Oxford University Press publisher Henry Frowde, who decided to publish the Scofield Bible and it has been in print, under that august imprint, ever since, providing it with endless gravitas.As an example of Scofield’s pro-Zionist explainer consider the following based on Genesis 12:3: ‘I will bless them that bless thee. And curse him that curseth thee.’ To which Scofield explained as meaning: “Wonderfully fulfilled in the history of the dispersion. It has invariably fared ill with the people who have persecuted the Jew—well with those who have protected him.” Which, John Hagee, the founder of Christians United for Israel (CUFI), further interpreted as meaning “The man or nation that lifts a voice or hand against Israel invites the wrath of God”.In rebuttal, Stephen Sizer in his, Christian Zionism: Road-map to Armageddon? says: “The promise, when referring to Abraham’s descendants, speaks of God blessing them [Abraham’s direct descendants], not of entire nations ‘blessing’ the Hebrew nation, still less the contemporary and secular State of Israel.” He went on to say: “Sustained by a dubious exegesis of selective biblical texts, Christian Zionism’s particular reading of history and contemporary events…sets Israel and the Jewish people apart from other peoples in the Middle East…it justifies the endemic racism intrinsic to Zionism, exacerbates tensions between Jews and Palestinians and undermines attempts to find a peaceful resolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, all because ‘the Bible tells them so.’”The particular link between Evangelical Christians and Ultranationalist Zionist Jews stems from their shared eschatological beliefs: primarily that they must strive towards the coming of the Messiah. To this end they believe that in order for the Messiah to return the 3rd Jewish Temple should be built on the site of King Herod’s 2^nd Temple of which only the Western wall (or wailing wall as Christians often describe it) currently remains after it was destroyed by the Romans in 70 AD.The problem is that the Al-Aqsa mosque is built almost on top of it. The solution, we are told by Melissa Jane Kronfeld, a New York Jewish activist who runs the High on the Har organization, which leads of tours of the site is: “I believe it’s going to go, 100%. The whole thing is going to go to build a temple,” However, she insisted that the shrine and its golden dome should be preserved, but relocated. Which is somewhat missing the point, it isn’t the Al-Aqsa itself that is sacred, it is the location that makes it sacred. It was here that the Prophet stood, not in some sad, relocated Mosque in its new home in the Jordanian desert. All this begs a question: why not build the Temple on the large plot of land next to the Temple Mount, so the current West Wall becomes the East Wall, as a sign of equanimity? Just a thought.

Yanis Varoufakis: My Berlin Speech on Palestine That German Police Entered the Venue to Ban (video & transcript) Congratulations, and heartfelt thanks, for being here, despite the threats, despite the ironclad police outside this venue, despite the panoply of the German press, despite the German state, despite the German political system that demonises you for being here. “Why a Palestinian Congress, Mr Varoufakis?”, a German journalist asked me recently? Because, as Hanan Ashrawi once said: “We cannot rely on the silenced to tell us about their suffering.”Today, Ashrawi’s reason has grown depressingly stronger: Because we cannot rely on the silenced who are also massacred and starved to tell us about the massacres and the starvation.But there is another reason too: Because a proud, a decent people, the people of Germany, are led down a perilous road to a heartless society by being made to associate themselves with another genocide carried out in their name, with their complicity. I am neither Jewish nor Palestinian. But I am incredibly proud to be here amongst Jews and Palestinians – to blend my voice for Peace and Universal Human Rights with Jewish Voices for Peace and Universal Human Rights – with Palestinian Voices for Peace and Universal Human Rights. Being together, here, today, is proof that Coexistence is Not Only Possible – but that it is here! Already. “Why not a Jewish Congress, Mr Varoufakis?”, the same German journalist asked me, imagining that he was being smart. I welcomed his question. For if a single Jew is threatened, anywhere, just because she or he is Jewish, I shall wear the star of David on my lapel and offer my solidarity – whatever the cost, whatever it takes. So, let’s be clear: If Jews were under attack, anywhere in the world, I would be the first to canvass for a Jewish Congress in which to register our solidarity.Similarly, when Palestinians are massacred because they are Palestinians – under a dogma that to be dead and Palestinian they must have been… Hamas – I shall wear my keffiyeh and offer my solidarity whatever the cost, whatever it takes.Universal Human Rights are either universal or they mean nothing.With this in mind, I answered the German journalist’s question with a few of my own:

• Are 2 million Israeli Jews, who were thrown out of their homes and into an open air prison 80 years ago, still being kept in that open air prison, without access to the outside world, with minimal food and water, no chance of a normal life, of travelling anywhere, while bombed periodically for these 80 years? No.
• Are Israeli Jews being starved intentionally by an army of occupation, their children writhing on the floor, screaming from hunger? No.
• Are there thousands of Jewish injured children no surviving parents crawling through the rubble of what used to be their homes? No.
• Are Israeli Jews being bombed by the world’s most sophisticated planes and bombs today? No.
• Are Israeli Jews experiencing complete ecocide of what little land they can still call their own, not one tree left under which to seek shade or whose fruit to taste? No.
• Are Israeli Jewish children killed by snipers today at the orders of a member-state of the UN? No.
• Are Israeli Jews driven out of their homes by armed gangs today? No.
• Is Israel fighting for its existence today? No.

If the answer to any of these questions was yes, I would be participating in a Jewish Solidarity Congress today.

China’s economy, propelled by its factories, grew more than expected -- According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Chinese economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2024, with a growth rate of 1.6% quarter-on-quarter or 5.3% year-on-year, says the New York Times. “To stimulate growth, China…invest[ed] heavily in its manufacturing sector, including a binge of new factories that have helped to propel sales around the world of solar panels, electric cars and other products”, the newspaper adds. BJX News reports that, in the first quarter of 2024, China’s power generation totalled 224 terawatt-hours, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year. March saw growth of hydropower, wind power and solar power accelerate, the article says, while thermal power’s growth rate fell, and the growth rate of coal production decreased 4.2% year-on-year. Industry outlet IN-EN.com reports that, according to the China Coal Industry Association, during the 14th five-year-plan period (2021-25), new coal production capacity nationwide reached about 600m tonnes/year, with raw coal production “growing at an average annual rate of 4.5% between 2020 and 2023, reaching 4.7bn tonnes in 2023”. State-run industry newspaper China Energy News reports that China issued a policy document calling for the construction of green mines to be“further improved” by 2028. Meanwhile, the Financial Times says that President Xi Jinping told visiting German chancellor Olaf Scholz in Beijing yesterday that “China’s exports of electric vehicles (EV), lithium batteries, photovoltaic products, etc have not only enriched global supply and alleviated global inflation pressure, but also made great contributions to the global response to climate change and green and low-carbon transformation”. The New York Times quotes Maximilian Butek, executive director of the German Chamber of Commerce in China, saying that “if the EU goes too hard against China, we could expect countermeasures and this would be a catastrophe for us”. Elsewhere, Reuters reports that US treasury secretary Janet Yellen said yesterday that “China's massive investments in advanced manufacturing of clean energy goods have resulted in an unfair playing field that puts American workers and businesses at risk, and it needs to be mitigated”.

Aussie Govt Orders Facebook And X To Remove Muslim Knife Attack Video -Parishioners and live stream audience members for the Christ The Good Shepherd Church in Sydney, Australia were enjoying a sermon by popular conservative Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel when a young male Muslim assailant entered the church and stabbed him repeatedly with a knife. The live stream clip was immediately shared far and wide on social media with X and Facebook being the easiest sites to view the video.Bishop Mari Mari Emanuel stabbed by a muslim shouting "allah akbar" in Sydney apparently for previously stating that following mohammed or any religion other than Christianity will send you to hell which is the truth. Islam teaches the extermination of all non muslims. Evil lie. pic.twitter.com/4qjpGLm8jX Bishop Mar Mari Emmanuel is a leader of the Assyrian Orthodox sect who has a global following. He has expressed stalwart conservative views on Islam, the LGBT community, and was vocal in his sermons against lockdowns and vaccinations during COVID-19. Four other member of the church were injured while subduing the attacker; the young man also reportedly cut off some of his own fingers during the struggle. The Australia government through their "E-Safety Commissioner" has voiced concerns over the spread of the clip and has "ordered" Facebook and X to remove if from public access within 24 hours on the grounds that it will "make people emotional" and "cause disharmony." How much power Australia's E-Safety Commissioner actually has to follow through on her threats remains to be seen. The identity of the attacker has yet to be revealed by authorities, but he is allegedly 16-years old and was recorded smiling after stabbing the Bishop while praising Allah. Once again, westerners have been treated to a lesson in cultural diversity. The motivation behind Australia's effort to have the event removed from social media is blatantly transparent. If the attack involved anyone other than a Muslim it is unlikely they would have an interest in censoring the video. However, such horrifying incidents involving potential migrants create growing opposition to the open border policies of western progressive governments. So, rather than addressing the root of the problem (mutually exclusive cultures), officials have decided it's better to hide it instead.

Venezuela closes embassy in Ecuador following Mexican Embassy raid - Venezuela has ordered its embassy in Ecuador closed in the wake of a raid on the Mexican Embassy in Quito. “I ordered to close our Embassy in Ecuador, as well as the Consulates in Quito and Guayaquil and for diplomatic personnel to return to Venezuela immediately,” Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said Tuesday in a post on the social platform X, which was translated from Spanish with Google translation tools. “All this until International Law is expressly restored in Ecuador.” Earlier this month, Ecuadorian police raided the Mexican Embassy in Quito and arrested a former Ecuadorian vice president, Jorge Glas. Glas, who had sought asylum at the embassy, had been sheltering there since December.Glas had a warrant for his arrest and had been sentenced to prison for alleged corruption, per Ecuador’s presidential office. “The absolute and total solidarity from Venezuela with the people of Mexico,” Maduro said in aseparate post on X. “You are not alone, you have the voice of our America, accompanying you in this circumstance that you did not seek, but rather it is an act of barbarism committed against your embassy in Ecuador, which no one in the world defends.”

Zelensky Angry That Israel Prioritized By West, Says Ukraine Running Out Of Missiles To Defend Airspace -On Wednesday Russian missiles slammed into the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv, killing at least 17 people and wounding scores more, according to local officials. The attack came during a busy time of the day in a downtown district.President Volodymyr Zelensky in the wake of the deadly strikes, which involved at least three missiles hitting targets, lashed out at the West for failing to provide more vital anti-air defenses and missiles. "This would not have happened if Ukraine had received enough air defense equipment and if the world’s determination to counter Russian terror was also sufficient," he stated. The wording of the statement strongly suggested his view that allies' determination is not sufficient, despite tens of billions already spent by the West. "Terrorists can destroy lives only when they first manage to intimidate those who are able to stop terror and protect life," he added.Later in the day, Ukraine emergency authorities reported that over 60 civilians were injured in the attack, in addition to the at least 17 dead - a casualty toll which could rise.In prior statements published Tuesday, Zelensky commented on last week's Russian attack which destroyed the largest power-generating plant in the Kyiv region. He described that his military had run out of missiles to mount an adequate defense."There were 11 missiles flying. We destroyed the first seven, and four (remaining) destroyed Trypillia. Why? Because there were zero missiles. We ran out of missiles to defend Trypillia," he told PBS.He and his top officials have of late accused the West of turning a "blind eye" at a moment they are simultaneously focusing on Israel's defense against Iran. Reuters has said there remains the possibility that at this rate Ukraine could run out of effective anti-air measures altogether:Reuters was not able to independently verify the account. Zelenskiy has earlier warned that Ukraine has already had to make tough choices about what to protect and said his country could run out of defensive missiles entirely if Russian attacks continued apace.

Ukraine's Top General Says Situation on the Battlefield Has 'Significantly Worsened' - Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Saturday that the situation on the frontline in eastern Ukraine has “significantly worsened” in recent days as Russian forces are making steady gains.Syrskyi, who replaced Gen Valery Zaluzhny in February, said that since Russian President Vladimir Putin was re-elected last month, there’s been a “significant intensification of the enemy’s offensive.”The Ukrainian commander said that the warmer weather “has made most of the open areas of the terrain accessible to tanks,” helping the Russians advance in the east.Syrskyi’s comments came about two weeks after Ukrainian military officers speaking to POLITICO said the frontlines in Ukraine are at risk of collapsing wherever Russia focuses its offensive. Russia’s current focus appears to be on taking the town of Chasiv Yar, which is about 9 miles west of Bakhmut.Ukrainian and Western officials have told Financial Times that they expect Russia to launch a major offensive in the late spring or early summer along the entire frontline aimed at taking more territory in Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia, the four Ukrainian oblasts Russia said it annexed in 2022.Besides gaining more ground on the battlefield, Russia has alsosignificantly ramped up missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and has been much more successful in getting past Ukraine’s air defenses. The Russian Defense Ministry said the strikes were in retaliation for Ukraine’ stepping up at attacks on oil refineries and other energy infrastructure inside Russia.

AI chatbots spread falsehoods about the EU election, report finds – — Chatbots produced by Google, Microsoft and OpenAI shared some false information about the European election, two months before hundreds of millions head to cast their ballots, according to an analysis shared exclusively with POLITICO. While the artificial intelligence tools remained politically neutral, they tended to return incorrect election dates and information about how to cast a ballot, said Democracy Reporting International, a Berlin-based NGO that carried out the research in March. Chatbots also often provided broken or even irrelevant links to YouTube videos or content in Japanese, researchers added."We were not surprised to find wrong information about details of the European elections, because chatbots are known to invent facts when providing answers, a phenomenon known as hallucination," said Michael Meyer-Resende, co-founder and executive director of Democracy Reporting International.Researchers noted that AI chatbots were dynamic, making the experiment hard to replicate. In a series of a dozen tests with similar questions carried out by POLITICO on Tuesday, the chatbots either declined to respond entirely or else had updated responses with links directing users to the EU institutions' websites.Meyer-Resende said the experiment was, however, large enough to be representative. It also provided new evidence about the risks of so-called AI hallucinations — which often occur because of insufficient training data, biases and false assumptions —ahead of the European election, which takes place from June 6-9.The fast emergence of easy-to-use AI tools generating text, audio and video has prompted concerns about a rise in misinformation in a year with crucial elections in the EU, the United States, the United Kingdom and India. The European Commission in March ordered several tech firms like Bing and Google to explain — before April 5 — how they were limiting potential risks to elections connected to their generative AI tools under the Digital Services Act.