Fed official rules out May rate cut -Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Tuesday that she is unlikely to support cutting interest rates at the Fed’s May meeting. Mester, who is currently a voting member of the central bank’s rate-setting panel, said she does not expect to have enough data by the Fed’s next meeting to determine that inflation is headed solidly back down towards its 2-percent target. “The monthly inflation readings in January and February came in firmer than the readings over the second half of last year and are a good reminder of what we already knew: that the disinflation process will not be a smooth path back to 2 percent,” Mester said in prepared remarks Tuesday. While inflation has eased significantly over the past year and a half, January and February’s numbers came in hotter than expected. Consumer prices rose by 0.3 percent in January for a 3.1 percent year-over-year increase. In February, prices ticked up 0.4 percent over the previous month and 3.2 percent over the past year. However, Mester said the latest numbers haven’t changed her overall outlook on inflation, noting that she previously expected the pace of disinflation to slow this year. “I continue to think that the most likely scenario is that inflation will continue on its downward trajectory to 2 percent over time,” Mester said. “But I need to see more data to raise my confidence.” “Some further monthly readings will give us a better sense of whether the disinflation process is stalling out or whether the start-of-the-year readings reflect a temporary detour on the downward path back to price stability,” she continued. While Mester doesn’t believe she’ll have enough information by the Fed’s next meeting to determine where inflation is headed, she said she anticipates the central bank will begin cutting rates “later this year.” Traders largely aren’t expecting the Fed to cut rates from their current range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent in May. However, they have priced in a nearly 60 percent chance of a rate cut in June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Watch: Fed Chair Powell Says "Too Soon" To Claim Victory Over Inflation; Highlight's Fed 'Independence' - Fed Chair Powell is likely to hammer home the message that rate-cuts are coming but not just yet in a keynote address at Stanford University this afternoon. His remarks follow an endless parade of his peers also jawboning market expectations down (successfully) to the point where the market is now more hawkish than The Fed's latest dots.Fed's Bostic was the latest to speak; reiterating his view this morning that more time is needed to confirm the disinflationary path and that he expects only one rate-cut this year.“I think it will be appropriate for us to start moving down at the end of this year, the fourth quarter,”Bostic said in an interview with CNBC.“If that trajectory slows down in terms of inflation, then we’re going to have to be more patient than I think many have expected.”Additionally, on the anniversary of SVB and the regional banking crisis, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman warned that the central bank should weigh whether discount-window borrowing capacity should be recognized in reviews of lenders’ liquidity resources. Last week Powell said there is no rush to ease monetary policy.He is likely "to remain consistent," AmeriVet's Gregory Faranello says in a note. "Perhaps he gets more granular."Faranello expects the chairman to "stick to the notion on monetary policy that 'at some point this year' it will be appropriate to begin lowering rates."Treasury yields are rising ahead of the speech and rate-cut odds fading.The Fed could risk losing its credibility if it cuts interest rates too soon.“Jerome Powell said very early on he is a student of what happened in the seventies,” according to Eric Veiel, chief investment officer and head of global investments at T. Rowe Price Group Inc.“If they go ahead and start cutting now, I think they are in danger of making the same mistake.”So Powell has lots of potential points to make today, but as many expect, he will carefully walk the tight-rope between being too positive about the economy, overly worried about inflation re-igniting, and avoiding the appearance of politicization - cutting rates in an economy that (based on aggregate data) is firing on all cylinders... with inflation expectations surging...
Fed’s Kashkari Says Quiet Part Out Loud: Maybe No Rate Cuts in 2024 if Inflation Continues to Move “Sideways” By Wolf Richter--It was Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari’s job today to say out loud what we’ve said here at WOLF STREET in the comments for a while, and what others have said, and what other Fed officials have gotten close to saying with their wait-and-see and in-no-rush lingo, but haven’t yet said: “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all,” he said in an interview with Pensions and Investments Magazine. “There’s a lot of momentum in the economy right now.” If the economy continues to grow as it has, powered by consumer spending, it also raises the question “of why cut rates,” he said. And more rate hikes are “not off the table, but they are also not a likely scenario given what we know right now,” he said. “The question is, is inflation going to continue to fall, and/or is it going to be monetary policy’s job to bring inflation all the way back to the 2% target right now,” he said. Kashkari is not in a voting slot this year on the policy setting FOMC, so he’s sort of a soft voice to put the bug into your ear, the voice to gently get the thought process going. He said he still “jotted down two rate cuts” for 2024 – a reference to the “dot plot” at the March FOMC meeting where the 19 members wrote down their vision for interest rates. Of the 19 members, 9 saw two cuts or fewer in 2024, 9 saw three cuts, and 1 saw four cuts. So the “median,” cited in the headlines, was still three cuts, but if only one member that saw three cuts switches to two cuts, the median drops to two cuts, as we discussed at the time. So he was one of the nine FOMC members who saw two or fewer rate cuts by the end of 2024. The Fed’s models of the economy “are not describing the inflationary dynamics that we’re seeing right now,” he said. He also pointed out that there was a lot of uncertainty in the economy, and that it has been difficult for forecast. Inflation fell sharply in the first nine months of 2023, driven by the collapse of energy prices and a drop from the pandemic spike of durable goods prices as the supply-chain bottle necks were sorted out, but toward the end of the year, the underlying measures turned around and started accelerating again, particularly services, and then we had two awful inflation readings in a row for January and February — that were “a little bit concerning,” Kashkari said. He said he needed more confidence that inflation is moving toward the 2% target before cutting rates, and emphasized that the coming inflation would guide interest-rate decisions, something that every Fed official has emphasized: the rate decisions would be data dependent. So, to use Kashkari’s term of “sideways”: inflation hasn’t really moved “sideways” in recent months, it re-accelerated. And that has spooked lots of people. Obviously, that could have been just a temporary bump in the road, or it could have been more than that, as Powell pointed out during the press conference, and no one knows. But what the Fed officials have been doing for two months is slowly and systematically dialing back the rate-cut expectations, and Kashkari just turned the dial a little further. The stock market didn’t like this at all. When this no-rate-cut scenario started spreading in the afternoon, stocks began to head south, and the S&P 500 ended down 1.2% for the day. But I mean, anything – a butterfly batting its wings – could have deflated the sentiment in the market after this crazy rally.
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$1.53 Trillion from Peak, to $7.44 Trillion, Lowest since February 2021. The BTFP Plunged by $34 Billion - Quantitative Tightening has removed 37% of Treasury securities and 27% of MBS that pandemic QE had added. By Wolf Richter -Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet fell by $99 billion in March, to $7.44 trillion, the lowest since February 2021, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.53 trillion.There have been discussions at the Fed about how and when to slow down the pace of QT, the idea being that slowing the liquidity withdrawal will give liquidity time to move to where it’s needed from where it’s in excess, to avoid blowing up something which would then require the Fed to end QT “prematurely,” as they said. “By going slower, you can get farther,” Powell explained during the FOMC press conference.They’re trying to get the balance sheet down as far as possible, and easy will do it, that’s going to be the program. But not yet. During QT #1 between November 2017 and August 2019, the Fed’s assets dropped by $688 billion, while inflation was below or at the Fed’s target (1.8% core PCE in August 2019), and the Fed was just trying to “normalize” its balance sheet.Now inflation is above the Fed’s target, though it came down a lot in 2023, and it has started to re-accelerate in a nasty way. Here’s the long view of the Fed’s balance sheet: QT by category.
- Treasury securities: -$57 billion in March, -$1.20 trillion from peak in June 2022, to $4.58 trillion, the lowest since November 2020. The Fed has now shed 37% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasury securities that it had added during pandemic QE.Treasury notes (2- to 10-year securities) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year securities) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. The roll-off is capped at $60 billion per month, and about that much has been rolling off, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS.
- Treasury bills and QT. These short-term securities (1 month to 1 year), now at $195 billion, are included in the $4.58 trillion of Treasury securities on the Fed’s balance sheet.The Fed lets them roll off (doesn’t replace them when they mature) only if not enough longer-term Treasury securities mature to get to the $60-billion monthly cap. This means that as long as the Fed has T-bills, the roll-off of Treasury securities can reach the cap of $60 billion every month. Here’s the maturity schedule of securities on the balance sheet and for how long T-bills can top off the roll-off before they run out.From March 2020 through the ramp-up of QT, the Fed held $326 billion in T-bills that it constantly replaced as they matured (flat line in the chart). T-bills started rolling off with QT in September 2022 to bring the Treasury roll-offs to $60 billion a month. They’re now down to $195 billion:
- Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$15 billion in March, -$352 billion from the peak, to $2.39 trillion, the lowest since July 2021. The Fed has shed 26% of the MBS it had added during pandemic QE.The Fed only holds government-backed MBS, and taxpayers carry the credit risk. MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made.But sales of existing homes have plunged, and mortgage refinancing has collapsed, and so fewer mortgages got paid off, and passthrough principal payments to MBS holders, such as the Fed, have been reduced to just a trickle, and so the MBS are coming off the balance sheet at a pace that’s far below the $35-billion cap.
Nothing in the Jobs Report Indicates the Fed Should Cut Rates: Labor Market Plugging Along Just Fine despite 5.5% Rates by Wolf Richter -- It was the kind of jobs report we’d expect from an economy that is plugging along just fine, at growth rates that are above the long-run average, powered by drunken sailors all around: By consumers outspending inflation with gusto, especially on services, by the government spending trillions it borrows hand-over-fist, and by businesses that are raking in big-fat inflation-fueled profits.In March, 303,000 payroll jobs were created – excluding farm workers and the self-employed – by nonfarm employers, which was somehow a lot “better than expected,” after 270,000 jobs had been added in February, and 256,000 in January, according to the “Establishment” survey data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. January’s data was revised up by 27,000 jobs, February’s was revised down by 5,000, for a net up-revision of 22,000 jobs. This brought the three-month average increases, which iron out the month-to-month squiggles, to 276,000 jobs, a rate of over 3 million jobs a year, which is a lot: Folks can quibble with some of the details, but overall, it was fine – it has been fine every month for well over a year, exactly what you’d expect from an economy that’s plugging right along at a pace that is faster than we’ve come accustomed to over the past 15 years. There is nothing in this jobs report – and we’ll get into the details in a moment – that indicates that the Fed should cut rates. The job market remains tight, wages are increasing at a good clip, and employment is growing at such a pace that inflation pressures emanate from it. For the past 12 months, despite the interest rates that the Fed jacked up to 5.25%, nearly 3 million nonfarm payroll jobs have been added. Over the past three months, the pace accelerated to 3.3 million jobs a year annualized. The total number of payroll jobs rose to a record 158.1 million: Average hourly earnings rose in March at an annualized rate of 4.3%, also according to the survey of employers, to $34.69. Over the past three months – which irons out the month-to-month squiggles – average hourly earnings rose by 4.1% annualized: Household data of the jobs report messed up by underestimated immigration. The remaining parts of the jobs report are based on the BLS survey of households. The BLS applies the survey data to the overall population count in the US to come up with its figures of employment, unemployment, the labor force, labor force participation, unemployment rates, etc. The BLS uses the population data from the Census Bureau. But the Census Bureau’s formula has massively underestimated the recent historic surge in immigration. The Congressional Budget Office, however, has picked up on the massive surge of immigration, and its population growth data for 2022 and 2023 have shot far above the Census Bureau data. We discussed this the other day in detail and how it messes with the BLS household employment data. These are the two diverging population growth estimates: As a result of applying the survey data to the underestimated population count from the Census Bureau, the BLS understates total employment and the labor force which messes with all the other data. So it’s in this light that we need to look at the stuff below. Nevertheless, here we sally forth into the Household survey data. Growth in overall employment, which includes farm workers and the self-employed, per the survey of households and applied to the Census Bureau’s underestimated population count, rose by 498,000 after three months in a row of declines, to 161.5 million. Given that this metric includes farm workers and the self-employed (and the payrolls data from employers does not), there is always a big difference between the total number of workers per household survey (red) and the workers on employers’ payrolls (blue). But that difference has dropped by half, due to the underestimation of immigration in the Census Bureau population data:
What Will The Fed Do When Trump Wins And Slams China With 60% Tariffs - Yesterday, Bloomberg noted ‘Fears of 5% Yields Are Back, Thanks to Oil’s Surge’. We are over a quarter into a year in which we were promised rapid, wall-to-wall rate cuts, but so far only the Swiss have proved punctual: now we are threatened with higher long yields to boot? Yes, the Fed’s Daly underlined she still sees 3 cuts this year, even if “a projection is not a promise,” and the same tone has been struck by almost all central banks. Yet Mester raised her long-run Fed Funds forecast from a “long-time” view of 2.5% to 3.0% (and ruled out cutting in May, which the market wasn’t thinking about as odds of a June cut start to fall back). In the US, we have persistently strong labour market data (for all the questions over it); sticky core CPI trending higher, not lower; PPI doing the same; and financial conditions that say ‘buy all the things’; and now ISM manufacturing back above 50, with new orders and prices paid not backing goods deflation. Let’s see what the services ISM employment index says today.European and UK data are less ebullient, even if stocks aren’t, but today’s Eurozone CPI data will underline both goods deflation and services inflation far above the 2% CPI target level. How will the latter come down absent an economic downturn more dramatic than one requiring just a few rate cuts, which themselves should logically push it back up again?Now back to Bloomberg’s “5%” headline as Brent sits at $89 this morning, the highest level since last October: is it really all about energy at the end of the day? There’s a scientific and philosophical case to be made that it is, even if it fuels resistance from everyone paid to look at everything but energy. However, it’s complicated. The Financial Times underlines that solar panels are now so cheap they are being used as fences in Europe… because the cost of labor has gone through the roof, so installing panels them there is uneconomic. In short, you have cheap energy *and* high inflation.
- You don’t need to be an energy expert to see a cyclical manufacturing upturn would mean energy demand moves higher, while supply is being deliberately limited by OPEC+.
- You don’t need to be a Middle-East expert to see geopolitical risks are high: and as that region sadly often proves, things can still get much worse.
- You don’t need to be a Russia-Ukraine expert to see geopolitical risks are high: and, as we predicted, Ukraine has continued to use drone attacks against Russian oil refineries. The latest took out Russia’s third-largest facility 800km away in Tatarstan. While Russia says it doesn’t need to reduce diesel exports for now, how many more refineries need to be struck before that happens? Because, logistically and logically, refineries are going to keep being struck.
- You don’t need to be a China expert to see the read-between-the-lines-out of the latest telephone call between Xi and Biden was focused on Taiwan, which is another geopolitical flashpoint (and a physical one given the earthquake and tsunami warning we just saw there). And is there is a link between that Xi-Biden call and US Treasury Secretary Yellen suddenly announcing she will be in China from April 4-9? Perhaps she’s just looking for more ‘shrooms?
Have you got the energy to keep tracking what you should be tracking in order to track what you think you should be tracking?
Biden Budget Shells Out $320 Million On Border Walls... For Oman, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, And Tunisia -- Is there anything Joe Biden can't do? Get a load of what he funded in his latest bloated budget spending bill passed last week, according to Breitbart News, which opened the hood of that jalopy:Slipped into a $1.2 trillion budget signed by Biden last weekend is about $380 million for “enhanced border security” projects in Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, and Tunisia — about $150 million of which must go to border security in Jordan.Meanwhile, the budget puts strict limitations on the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) ability to construct physical barriers along the U.S.-Mexico border to deter illegal immigration.“The Biden administration wants nothing more than the ability to ‘manage’ an invasion here at home, all while helping nations abroad build walls,” RJ Hauman with the National Immigration Center for Enforcement (NICE) told Breitbart News. “Make it make sense.”Why, exactly are we paying for some place like Tunisia's enhanced border security, which is a cost they can bear themselves, while failing to build a border wall amid millions of foreign invaders rolling into the U.S. from some of those very same countries?The irony is incredible here. Biden knows that border security works, which is why he's taking cash from the U.S. taxpayer and handing it over to foreign countries to ensure that their borders stay secure from terrorists and other foreign invaders.Meanwhile, he spends tremendous time, money and energy to ensure that our border wall is open as can be. He's fighting Texas through the courts all the way up to the Supreme Court to ensure that they can't defend their border from crime and terrorism from "newcomers" from more than 100 countries still rolling on in without papers. The latest news is that he has a master plan for amnesty and free green cards for those who slipped through the border earlier, and plans to issue an executive order, making illegal immigration nothing more than stop on the express subway to U.S. citizenship and Democrat votes.According to the Daily Caller:President Joe Biden is currently considering granting amnesty to illegal migrants in a bid to act on the worsening immigration crisis, according to Politico. Biden and his administration are weighing several ideas to take a tougher stance on the southern border crisis and illegal immigration amid criticisms he has thus far failed to act on either. The administration could start dolling out green cards to illegal immigrants who have long stayed inside the United States, thereby giving them amnesty to stay in the country, three people familiar with the planning told Politico. It's insane, given how unpopular the idea is, and it comes on the heels of this fund-everyone-else's border security buried within the budget, except for ours. Didn't we just get through a failed border bill that came about because of the public's demand for border security before handing Ukraine $60 billion for its border security? Joe doesn't care. He's not doing things to be popular anymore, he's doing things to reward big-money campaign donors and special interest groups with an interest in open borders.
Johnson says Ukraine aid will come up ‘right after’ recess and will include some ‘innovations’ --Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Sunday that he expects to move a package including aid for Ukraine with “some important innovations” when the House returns from recess. In an interview on “Sunday Night in America With Trey Gowdy,” Johnson stressed the difficult position he’s in, with a historically narrow House majority, but said he was working throughout the current work period to come up with a package and plans to put it on the floor when the House gavels back into session. “Look, what we have to do in an era of divided government — historically, as we are — you got to build consensus. If we want to move a partisan measure, I got to have every single member, literally,” Johnson said. “And some things need to be bipartisan.” “But when it comes to the supplemental, we’ve been working to build that consensus. We’ve been talking to all the members, especially now over the district work period. When we return after this work period, we’ll be moving a product, but it’s going to, I think, have some important innovations,” Johnson said. Johnson floated as examples the possibilities of extending a loan to Ukraine — an idea that gained some traction earlier this month as a way to back Ukraine while assuaging conservative concerns about providing more aid as the country fights against Russian aggression. Johnson also mentioned the REPO for Ukrainians Act, which would authorize the president to seize Russian sovereign assets frozen in the U.S. and give them to Ukraine to use against Russia. “The REPO Act, you know — if we can use the seized assets of Russian oligarchs to allow the Ukrainians to fight them, that’s just pure poetry,” Johnson said. “Even President Trump has talked about the loan concept, where … we’re not just giving foreign aid, we’re setting it up in a relationship where they can provide it back to us when the time is right.” Johnson added that, in an effort to “unleash American energy,” he wants “to have natural gas exports that will help unfund Vladimir Putin’s war effort there, you know,” he said, adding, “There’s a lot of things that we should do that … make more sense and that I think we’ll have consensus around.” “We’re putting that product together and we’ll be moving it right after the district work period,” Johnson said. The interview comes as Johnson has signaled that he intends to push through legislation that would provide funding for Ukraine, but he has yet to spell out exactly what that would look like. House Intelligence Committee Chair Mike Turner (R-Ohio) said earlier Sunday that he was confident that support for Ukraine would have “overwhelming support” when Congress returns, underscoring Johnson’s pledge to make Ukraine funding a priority upon their return. “The Speaker has made very clear statements that when we get back, it’s the next top agenda, after having just passed all the bills that fund the federal government,” Turner said. “I believe this is going to have overwhelming support in Congress, and we’ll put a bill on the president’s desk.”
Speaker Johnson Says He Supports Giving Frozen Russian Assets to Ukraine - House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said in an interview on Sunday that he supports the idea of giving frozen Russian Central Bank funds to Ukraine to fuel the proxy war, a step that would significantly escalate the US economic campaign against Russia.Johnson expressed support for the REPO Act, a bill that’s been introduced in both chambers of Congress that would authorize the secretary of state to “provide additional assistance to Ukraine using assets confiscated from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation and other sovereign assets of the Russian Federation, and for other purposes.” Discussing the REPO Act, Johnson said, “If we can use the seized assets of Russian oligarchs to allow the Ukrainians to fight them, that’s just pure poetry.”The Biden administration has come out in favor of stealing Russian funds to arm Ukraine, and the REPO Act has strong bipartisan support. The House version of the bill has 80 cosponsors, including 52 Republicans and 28 Democrats.The US and its allies have frozen about $300 billion in Russian Central Bank funds, including $67 billion that’s held in the US and about $200 billion held in Europe. The EU is looking to set aside 3 billion euros per year for Ukraine using profits made by the Russian funds, but Western banks are warning against the plan.The banks are concerned that if they’re involved in the transfer of the money, they could be subject to legal action once sanctions on Russia are eased or lifted. They also fear the move would set a dangerous precedent and undermine trust in the Western banking system.
Senate faces tough choice on Speaker Johnson’s Ukraine vision - The Senate faces a tough choice on Ukraine aid as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says the House will move a Ukraine package after the April recess, but one that could be strikingly different from the $95 billion package the upper chamber passed in February. The Speaker has already told Republican senators that a substantial portion of the assistance in the House bill would be provided in the form of a loan, an idea championed by former President Trump but initially dismissed by Senate leaders in both parties. Johnson has signaled the House will take action on a Ukraine assistance bill in the next few weeks but hasn’t shared many details about what the package will look like. He has floated the idea of attaching language to reverse President Biden’s moratorium on new permits for liquified natural gas export facilities or provisions to pay for some aid to Ukraine by seizing Russian assets. Now senators must decide whether to wave off Johnson’s latest gambit or swallow a Ukraine package that falls short of what they envisioned. Given the dire situation on the eastern Ukrainian front, where Ukrainian troops are running out of weapons and ammunitions, even senators who were initially skeptical about setting up a complicated loan program are warming up to the idea of taking whatever the House sends across the Capitol. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.) acknowledged Monday that Congress is running out of time to help Ukraine and that the Senate may be forced to accept whatever passes the House. “I think in whatever form it comes — whatever form it takes to get the aid to Ukraine, that’s the form that we got to go [with],” she told reporters. “I am of course a believer in the bill that was passed here in the Senate, would prefer that the House take that up. “I don’t want to have to go through it all here in the Senate again, but getting the aid to Ukraine has to be the priority, and we have to do it as quickly as possible,” she said. Butler expressed wariness about adding new policy reforms to aid for Ukraine, such as reversing Biden’s moratorium on liquified natural gas permits, which could trigger a new time-consuming fight. “I think opening up new cans at this point is probably one of the things that’s going to take the most time and, to me, opening up avenues like that is another delay,” she said. Republicans are feeling a similar sense of resignation about accepting a substantially revised foreign aid package. “That’s fine. It’s a distinction without much difference, because it’s unlikely Ukraine would ever have [to] pay it back. It would be forgiven. But getting help to Ukraine as soon as we can is something we should be doing,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) said. “If it has to be done as loan to get it through the House, so be it.” Romney said in February that packaging Ukraine aid as a loan would be tantamount to a political “fig leaf.” “They wouldn’t be able to repay it. Their economy has been devastated. It’s a fig leaf, but if he wants a fig leaf and it gets through the House, I’d rather have that than nothing,” Romney said of Trump’s idea to send aid in the form of a loan. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) has repeatedly pressed Johnson to bring the Senate bill to the House floor but with little result. He expressed impatience over Johnson’s plans to reconfigure the Senate’s Ukraine assistance package to build more support for it among House Republicans. “What I’ve said repeatedly is we’re running out of time,” McConnell told reporters before the Easter recess with a tone of exasperation. “The best way to get Ukraine the help they need is for the House to pass the Senate bill. The problem with changing it … it can take you three days to do the simplest thing here in the Senate. We don’t have the time, so I’m continuing to advocate to the Speaker he put the bill on the floor and let people vote,” he said.
Ukraine Aid Vote Not Expected in House for Weeks or Longer - House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said over the weekend that he would move forward with Ukraine aid “right away” when Congress returned from Easter break next week, but Bloomberg reported on Wednesdaythat a vote likely won’t happen until mid-April or later due to divisions among Republicans.Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) doubled down on her threat to force a vote to oust Johnson as speaker if he moves the aid forward, and it just takes one member of Congress to set the process in motion.“Let me tell you, when he forces that vote, again, under suspension with no amendments, and funds Ukraine and people find out how angry their constituents are about it, that’s going to move the needle even more,” Greene said.Other Republicans are looking for Johnson to get concessions from Biden for pushing through the $95 billion military aid bill that includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, and a few billion for Taiwan. In an interview on Sunday, Johnson said he was considering other options to arm Ukraine and expressed support for using frozen Russian Central Bank funds, which would mark a significant escalation in the US economic campaign against Moscow. A bipartisan bill to give the State Department the power to transfer Russian funds to Ukraine, known as the REPO Act, has strong support in Congress and could potentially be moved forward.Democrats are looking to bypass Johnson to force a vote on the foreign military aid bill through a Discharge Petition, which requires 218 signatures. So far, it has 192 signatures as a group of 22 progressive Democratsare not signing on due to opposition to arming Israel to support the slaughter in Gaza, and only one Republican has added his signature.
Joint Chiefs Chairman Claims Giving Ukraine Long-Range ATACMs Is No Longer as Risky - Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown has claimed arming Ukraine with long-range Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMs) isn’t as risky now as it was earlier in the war.“The risk of escalation is not as high as maybe it was at the beginning,” Brown told reporters last week, according to Defense One.ATACMs are missiles that can be fired from the HIMARS rocket systems the US has been providing Ukraine. According to media reports, the US has secretly armed Ukraine with an older cluster bomb variant of the ATACMs, which have a range of up to 100 miles.But Ukraine is still seeking the newer version of the missile, which can hit targets up to 190 miles away. US officials have previously said they couldn’t send Ukraine ATACMs because there aren’t enough in US military stockpiles.Another reason for not sending them to Ukraine is the risk of escalation since a 190-mile range would give Ukraine the ability to hit targets deep inside Russia. According to Defense One, top US military officials have said ATACMs could provoke a nuclear response from Russia or a Russian attack on a NATO country.But as the war has dragged on, concerns about escalations have waned, and NATO countries have taken several steps they previously ruled out due to concerns of provoking Russia.“Those are the things that we…pay attention to. You know, what is the likelihood of escalation based on…different capabilities and different actions,” Brown said.
Biden, Obama and Clinton defend US/Israeli slaughter of Palestinians at record $26 million fundraiser - The oligarchic and war-mongering character of the Biden administration and the Democratic Party was on full display last Thursday evening as former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton joined President Joe Biden for a campaign fundraising event at New York City’s Radio City Music Hall. The fundraiser, universally described in the press as “star-studded” and “elite,” raked in a record $26 million, according to the Biden campaign. With ticket prices ranging from $225 to $500,000, and all but the immediate White House press banned from the venue, the event was aimed at mobilizing wealthy donors and presenting the image of a party united behind Biden and solidly lined up against the presumptive Republican candidate, Donald Trump. Despite a massive police presence outside and heavy security inside the hall, however, the party tops and their billionaire backers could not conceal the reality of mass opposition to Biden and his partner in war crimes, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, especially among young people. Hundreds of pro-Palestinian protesters rallied in the rain outside of the mid-Manhattan venue, demanding an immediate ceasefire and end to the mass murder of innocent civilians in Gaza, which is being carried out with bombs, bullets, guns and tanks supplied by the United States. The same day as the New York fundraiser, the International Court of Justice warned of famine in Gaza and demanded that Israel stop blocking food, water and other vital aid from entering the besieged enclave. Inside Radio City Music Hall, the Democrats sought to present a festive atmosphere. The event was hosted by comedian Mindy Kaling, who joked about being in the midst of “so many rich people.” Performing for the crowd of 5,000 were celebrity Biden endorsers Queen Latifa, Lizzo, Ben Platt, Cynthia Erivo and Lea Michele. The main event was a three-way interview with Biden, Obama and Clinton, conducted by late-night TV host Stephen Colbert. However, the discussion was interrupted multiple times by individual protesters in the audience, who stood up and denounced Biden as a war criminal “with blood on your hands,” and were immediately removed by security guards. Clinton and Obama categorically defended Biden’s policy in Gaza and declared their support for the Israeli state. When a protester interrupted Obama, the former president snapped back: “You can’t just talk and not listen. That’s what the other side does.” Biden responded to protesters by repeating the official justification for ethnic cleansing and Nazi-style mass murder of Palestinians—that Hamas was to blame for the war and Israel had a “right” to self-defense. With unbounded cynicism, he said there were “too many innocent victims, Israeli and Palestinian,” equating the hundreds of Israelis killed in the October 7 incursion by Hamas, following nearly two decades of blockade and military attacks by Israel, with the more than 32,000 Palestinians killed to date by the Israel Defense Forces.
White House defends Shifa hospital massacre that killed over 400 -- The Israeli army’s withdrawal from Shifa Hospital in Gaza on Monday revealed that the complex had been turned into a killing field, with hundreds of bodies of men, women and children showing signs of mass summary execution, torture and mutilation. The massacre is among the largest in the nearly six-month-long US-Israeli genocide in Gaza, which has so far killed at least 32,000 people. According to Gaza’s government media office, the death toll of Israel’s assault on the hospital stands at over 400. In a statement Monday, the Euro-Med Monitor said that the total number killed, missing or injured could number over 1,500, in “one of the largest massacres in Palestinian history.” Images shared widely on social media showed countless decomposed bodies being exhumed from the hospital’s courtyards, where they had been buried by Israeli bulldozers. The bodies included women and children, as well as men with their hands zip-tied together. Eyewitnesses told Al Jazeera and other media outlets that hostages were shot while handcuffed or thrown in ditches and buried alive by bulldozers. The revelations of what could possibly be the largest massacre of the genocide so far prompted widespread popular outrage on social media, with millions of people sharing the documentary evidence. “The [Israeli] occupation destroyed and burned all buildings inside Al-Shifa Medical Complex. They bulldozed the courtyards, burying dozens of bodies of martyrs in the rubble, turning the place into a mass graveyard,” said Ismail Al-Thawabta, director of Gaza’s government office. He added, “This is a crime against humanity.” “The medical staff, some of whom were killed, others tortured, others detained, and above all, they have been besieged for two weeks without any medical supplies or even food or water,” Raed al-Nims, a spokesperson for the Palestinian Red Crescent Society, told Al Jazeera. He continued, “According to eyewitness accounts and official reports, many of the civilians were executed. They were killed by the Israeli occupation forces, including medical staff, doctors, and nurses; they were purposefully executed by the Israeli soldiers.” In its initial report on the massacre, based on on-the-ground reports, the Euro-Med Monitor reported that “hundreds of dead bodies, including some burned, and others with their heads and limbs severed, have been discovered both inside Al-Shifa Medical Complex and in the hospital’s surrounding area.” The Biden administration, the leading sponsor of the Israeli genocide, defended the massacre, claiming Shifa hospital was a legitimate military target and alleging, without substantiation, that Hamas was using it as a headquarters. “There were Hamas fighters hiding in Al Shifa Hospital,” said State Department spokesman Matthew Miller. “Do not believe that this attack was on the hospital,” Miller added. “The attack was on the Hamas fighters that are hiding inside a hospital.” He added, “I don’t know why I don’t hear more people calling on Hamas to stop going into hospitals.” White House spokesman Karine Jean-Pierre added, “So look, Hamas should not be operating out of hospitals, we have said that over and over again, and putting civilians at risk.” The White House responded to the massacre by directly green-lighting Israel’s planned assault on Rafah, where over 1 million displaced people are sheltering. Miller said that the scenario in which “Israel does nothing about the Hamas fighters that continue to exist in Rafah” is not an “acceptable alternative.” Jean-Pierre added, “We also know that there are Hamas operatives in Rafah as well. But if they’re going to move forward with military operations, we have to have this conversation. We have to understand how they’re going to move forward.”
Washington’s enablers of Israeli genocide in Gaza --The scenes of destruction and mass death at Al-Shifa Hospital in northern Gaza, in the wake of the pullback from the premises by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), are among the most horrific the world has witnessed since the barbarism of the Nazis in World War II. Hundreds of bodies lie strewn through the rubble of what was once the largest place of healing in the Gaza Strip. Witnesses describe the “stench of decomposing bodies” and having to step over body parts to walk through the wreckage. Israel is engaged in a war of extermination with no limits. This war depends on an endless flow of weapons and financial support from the United States, Britain, Canada and the European Union (with Germany in the lead), without which the genocide could not continue. As these horrors were being carried out, the Biden reelection campaign held a fundraising event Thursday at Radio City Music Hall in New York, where three Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, joined forces in defense of the current US policy. Hundreds of protesters were outside showing their support for the Palestinian people. Inside, several individuals were able to stand up to denounce the Israeli genocide and the Biden administration for supporting it.The response of the three presidents was to reaffirm their solidarity with Netanyahu. Biden declared, “You can’t forget that Israel is in a position where its very existence is at stake.” This was said as the existence of the Palestinians is being wiped out through bombs and mass starvation. Obama lectured the protesters on the need to “listen,” that is, to shut up and let experienced warmongers like himself and Biden make the decisions. The bulk of the audience, comprised of multi-millionaires paying huge sums for admission, applauded. The entertainers who participated in the program (Colbert, Queen Latifah, etc.) were fawning in their approval. All are covered in shame. The Radio City Music Hall event raised a record $26 million, as the Democrats laughed and joked with bankers and billionaires. Trump and the Republicans aim to top that figure this week with an event at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate, put on by hedge fund billionaire John Paulson. Both parties are political instruments of the super-rich, unshakably committed to the defense of the profit system at home and American imperialism abroad. The homicidal sentiments enveloping the ruling class as a whole were given voice last week by Michigan Republican Congressman Tim Walberg, who called for a quick destruction of the enclave, on the model of “Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” the Japanese cities annihilated by US nuclear bombs in August 1945. The line-up of Democratic presidents at the Radio City Music Hall shows why the mass protests have been entirely ineffective in changing government policy. All three presidents are identified with the development of the war policy of American imperialism over the past three decades. Clinton (1993-2001), oversaw a series of US military interventions in the former Yugoslavia, including full-scale air war against Serbia, and in Somalia, as well as bomb and missile attacks in Afghanistan, Iraq and Sudan. Obama (2009-2017) continued the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan begun by Republican George W. Bush, while bombing Libya and supporting Islamic forces in that country and in Syria, plunging both countries into bloody civil wars. He extended the global pursuit of military confrontation with his “turn to Asia,” promising to shift the majority of US military forces to the Asia-Pacific theater to confront China. Biden’s main focus since taking office has been to instigate and then escalate the US-NATO proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, to which the administration has devoted massive financial and military resources. This war, which threatens nuclear annihilation, is now combined with full-scale support for Israeli genocide in Gaza and a continuing war build-up in Asia, through anti-China alliances and an array of US bases.
White House ‘outraged’ at Israeli strike that killed World Central Kitchen workers -The White House on Tuesday called an Israeli strike that killed humanitarian workers in Gaza an “emblematic of a larger problem,” though officials signaled there would be no change in U.S. support for Israel in its war against Hamas as a result. John Kirby, a top spokesperson on national security issues, said at a press briefing the administration was “outraged” to learn of the Israeli military strike that killed workers with the World Central Kitchen, which was distributing food to civilians in Gaza. “We expect a broader investigation to be conducted and to be done so in a swift and comprehensive manner. We hope those findings will be made public and that there is appropriate accountability,” Kirby said. “More than 200 aid workers have been killed in this conflict, making it one of the worst for aid workers in recent history,” he continued. “This incident is emblematic of a larger problem and evidence of why distribution of aid in Gaza has been so challenging. But beyond the strike, what is clear is that the IDF must do much more to improve deconfliction processes so civilians and humanitarian aid workers are protected.” Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took responsibility Tuesday for a deadly strike that killed seven aid workers for the charity group World Central Kitchen, an organization led by chef José Andrés, the day prior. “This happens in war,” he said in a statement. “We are conducting a thorough inquiry and are in contact with the governments. We will do everything to prevent a recurrence.” The deaths of the foreign aid workers are likely to increase anger and frustration with Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza, where more than 32,000 Palestinians have been killed and hundreds of thousands face famine. Kirby said the U.S. would continue to press Israel to do more and ensure the safety of humanitarian workers and would continue to do its part to deliver assistance to Palestinian civilians in Gaza. But he said the U.S. would continue to support the Israel military as it has since Hamas set off the war with its attacks last October that killed more than 1,100 Israelis.
US stiffens tone on Israel policy in aftermath of aid worker killings - President Biden is signaling that growing frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could lead to a change in U.S. support for Israel’s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, following the shocking Israeli strike killing World Central Kitchen aid workers. The White House sharpened its message toward Israel significantly following a call between Biden and Netanyahu after months of defending Israel’s conduct, even as Palestinian civilian deaths in Gaza mounted. The president called the strike that killed World Central Kitchen workers, who were helping to distribute food to Palestinians in Gaza, “unacceptable” during a 30-minute call with Netanyahu that officials described as “very direct.” “He made clear the need for Israel to announce and implement a series of specific, concrete, and measurable steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers,” the White House said in a readout of the call. “He made clear that U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps.” The language was a dramatic shift from just days ago, when White House national security communications adviser John Kirby dismissed the idea that the U.S. would “hang some sort of condition over their neck” when it came to providing military aid to Israel. Kirby told reporters on Thursday the Biden-Netanyahu call was arranged after the death of the World Central Kitchen workers, which he said had left Biden “shaken.” “I’m not going to preview any potential policy decisions coming forward,” Kirby said. “What we want to see are some real changes on the Israeli side, and, you know, if we don’t see changes from their side, there will have to be changes from our side.” Kirby said the U.S. hoped to see in the coming “hours and days” a “dramatic increase in the humanitarian assistance getting in, additional crossings opened up, and a reduction in the violence against civilians and certainly aid workers.”
Biden Not Changing Israel Policy After Meticulous Slaughter of Aid Workers - President Biden has no plans to change his policy of unconditional support for Israel even after the Israeli military systematically killed seven aid workers, including an American citizen, POLITICO reported on Wednesday.Biden released a statement claiming he was “outraged” over the attack and called for an investigation, but that’s as far as he will go. “That’s all we have planned,” a senior Biden administration official told POLITICO.The White House has also backed Israel’s claim that the strikes on the aid workers were an accident despite clear evidence that it was intentional.The aid workers for the World Central Kitchen were traveling along a route that was pre-approved by the Israeli military. They were in three separate cars with the WCK logo clearly marked, and an Israeli drone fired at least three missiles at each one until they were all killed.White House National Security Council spokesman was asked on Wednesday if there would be any change to US policy toward Israel and said, “We are still supporting their right to defend themselves, and we’re going to continue to do that. We’re also going to see what the result of the investigation is.” The POLITICO report said there were some officials within the administration unhappy with the full-throated support for Israel. “It’s just rinse and repeat with the Israelis. The American political system can’t or won’t draw a real line with them and that is regrettable,” another US official said.
“Nothing has changed”: White House backs Israel after murder of foreign aid workers - The Biden administration doubled down on its total support for Israel’s genocide in Gaza Wednesday after Israeli forces systematically and deliberately murdered seven foreign aid workers from World Central Kitchen on Monday. Asked whether there were “any changes to the President’s policy toward Israel and Gaza as a result of yesterday’s strike,” White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre declared, “[n]othing has changed.” In an earlier statement Monday, White House National Security spokesman John Kirby asserted, “We make no bones about the fact that Israel is going to continue to have American support for the fight that they’re in to eliminate the threat from Hamas.” He added, “No country should have to live next door to a threat that is truly genocidal, as Hamas has been, ...” that Israel has “every right and responsibility to their people to eliminate that threat after the 7th of October. And so, that support for Israel continues.” These comments come as it becomes increasingly undeniable that the airstrike that killed the aid workers Monday was deliberate, calculated and intentional. In an interview with Reuters, restaurateur José Andrés, the founder of World Central Kitchen, said the workers were targeted “systematically, car by car.” Andrés said that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had been positively informed about the group’s movements. “This was not just a bad luck situation where ‘oops’ we dropped the bomb in the wrong place,” he explained. He continued, “This was over a 1.5, 1.8 kilometers, with a very defined humanitarian convoy that had signs in the top, in the roof, a very colorful logo that we are obviously very proud of.” He added that it is “very clear who we are and what we do. “They were targeting us in a deconflicting zone, in an area controlled by IDF. They [were] knowing that it was our teams moving on that road ... with three cars,” he said. Andrés rejected the claims by the US that the strikes were unintentional, saying, “[c]ategorically no.” He added, “Even if we were not in coordination with the (Israel Defense Forces), no democratic country and no military can be targeting civilians and humanitarians.” The White House’s declarations that it will continue to unconditionally back Israel’s offensive in Gaza no matter the scale of its war crimes shows the real content of the declaration Tuesday by US President Joe Biden that he is “outraged” over the killing. Such statements are meant merely to cover up the fact that the genocide is taking place with the full approval of the United States.
Biden, Netanyahu Discuss Israeli Killing of Foreign Aid Workers - President Biden on Thursday spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about the targeted Israeli killing of seven workers for the World Central Kitchen. According to the White House readout of the call, Biden took a harsher tone with Netanyahu than before, but it’s unclear if the rhetoric will amount to a change of the policy of unconditional military support for the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza. “President Biden emphasized that the strikes on humanitarian workers and the overall humanitarian situation are unacceptable. He made clear the need for Israel to announce and implement a series of specific, concrete, and measurable steps to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers,” the White House said. “He made clear that US policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps,” the readout added.After the call, the Israeli cabinet approved steps to allow more aid into Gaza, including the opening of another border crossing and using Israel’s Port of Ashdod as a hub for humanitarian supplies. The White House said it welcomed the steps and that they should be implemented “immediately.”It’s unclear at this point if the steps will bring much relief to the Palestinians in Gaza since many aid groups suspended operations after the killing of the World Central Kitchen workers. US officials also didn’t spell out what other steps they wanted Israel to take and didn’t say what the consequences would be if Israel didn’t do enough.“I’m not going to preview any potential policy decisions coming forward,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.
US considers major new weapons sale to Israel -The Biden administration is mulling a major new arms sale to Israel amid calls to stop sending weapons to the ally as civilian casualties in Gaza mount, The Hill confirmed Monday. The U.S. government is considering selling Israel up to 50 new F-15 fighter jets, 30 AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, as well as Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, equipment that can alter dumb bombs into precision-guided weapons, Politico first reported. A House Foreign Affairs Committee aide later confirmed to The Hill that the administration informally notified the relevant congressional panels of the sale. The aide confirmed that “the chairman approved the transaction to proceed to formal congressional notification.” The Pentagon referred questions about the possible sale to the State Department, which did not respond to a request for comment. The sale, which is still pending U.S. government approval, comes as there are growing calls for President Biden to withhold arms for Israel if it won’t take actions to limit civilian casualties in the Gaza Strip. A brutal air and ground campaign launched by the Israeli military against Hamas militants in the enclave since October has already killed more than 31,000 Palestinians, the majority women and children. Many, including those within Biden’s own party, have also argued that the commander in chief should refuse to give Israel weapons should it launch a large-scale invasion into Gaza’s southern city of Rafah. More than 1 million Palestinian civilians are sheltering there after being driven from northern parts of the territory due to fighting. American officials have warned against a ground invasion of the city without an accepted plan to move civilians from harm’s way. Senate Foreign Relations Committee member Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said Sunday the United States needs to employ its “leverage” to ensure humanitarian aid reaches Gaza. He also criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying he “continues to rebuff the president of the United States time and time again.” “We have different parts of leverage and one of them is sending more offensive weapons. So, President Biden needs to be as serious about ensuring more humanitarian assistance gets into Gaza as Netanyahu has been in making his demands,” Van Hollen said on ABC News’s “This Week.” He added, “So, my view … is until the Netanyahu government allows more assistance into Gaza, to help people who are literally starving to death, we should not be sending more bombs.”
US Approves Billions in More Bombs and Fighter Jets for Israel to Support Gaza Slaughter - The Biden administration has approved billions of dollars worth of bombs and fighter jets for Israel to support the slaughter and starvation of Palestinians in Gaza despite claims from US officials that they’re concerned about the massive civilian casualty rate.US officials told The Washington Post that the administration approved the transfer of 500 MK82 500-pound bombs and more than 1,800 MK84 2,000-pound bombs, which Israel has used to kill scores of civilians by dropping them on Gaza’s densely populated cities.The administration also approved the transfer of 25 F-35 fighter jets to Israel, a deal worth $2.5 billion that’s likely being paid for by US military aid to Israel. US officials said both transfers had been approved by Congress years ago and not fulfilled, so lawmakers were not notified about the final approval.A White House official confirmed to the Post that US military aid to Israel is still unconditional. “Conditioning aid has not been our policy,” the official said.News of the weapons transfers came after Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited Washington to ensure continued US support for Israel’s brutal campaign. While President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appear to be at odds in public, behind the scenes, US support for Israel continues unabated.Gaza’s Health Ministry said on Sunday that 32,782 Palestinians have been killed and 75,298 have been wounded since October 7. The total of dead includes over 13,000 children. The numbers from Gaza’s Health Ministry are considered low estimates since they don’t take into account the thousands who are missing and presumed dead under the rubble.
Biden Administration Expected to Approve Massive $18 Billion F-15 Deal for Israel - The Biden administration is close to approving a massive $18 billion arms deal for Israel that includes 50 F-15 fighter jets, CNN reported on Monday.The news is the latest sign that the administration still strongly supports Israel’s slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza despite US officials claiming to be concerned with the massive civilian death toll. Last week, President Biden approved more bomb shipments to Israel and an F-35 deal worth $2.5 billion.The CNN report said the administration informally notified the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees about the potential F-15 deal in January. The top Republicans on both committees, Sen. James Risch (R-ID) and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX), have already given their approval on the deal.If the top Democrats on the committees, Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) and Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), don’t raise any objections to the F-15 transfer, the administration can formally notify Congress about the deal. The notification will begin a 30-day period when lawmakers could block it through legislation. While a growing number of Democrats have been calling for the US to cut off military aid to Israel, the majority of Congress still backs Israel’s brutal campaign in Gaza.
America’s Controversial Stealth Fighter Jet Can Now Carry Nukes - It was a routine Pentagon announcement during a regular briefing the Friday before the president typically submits his annual defense budget request to Congress on the second Monday in March. As of October, a spokesman for the Department of Defense’s (DOD) F-35 Joint Program Office told Pentagon beat writers, that “certain” Air Force F-35As have been operationally certified to carry the B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bomb. While the revelation hasn’t drawn much interest from general news media in the United States, it has spurred extensive commentary within the defense-tech industry. And it is echoing loudly in Europe, most certainly within the Kremlin where Russian President Vladimir Putin has been openly discussing the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The F-35A nuclear certification and introduction of the B61-12 bomb are key components in a tactical nuclear weapons upgrade in Europe by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in response to Russian saber-rattling—and advances—in battlefield nuclear weapons. While NATO’s U.S.-built F-16A/Bs and F-16C/Ds and United Kingdom-built PA-200 Tornadoes are also fighter jets authorized to carry nuclear weapons, the F-35A Lightning II is now the first “fifth-generation” stealth fighter to be “dual-capable” of carrying conventional and nuclear weapons, according to the Pentagon. The F-35A will soon be among NATO’s primary attack-strike jets. Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey are all stocking their air forces with F-35s, with Germany explicitly doing so because it would be nuclear-capable. The March 8 announcement also confirmed the full-scale production of the B61-12 bomb. Their predecessors were housed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, and Turkey. According to some reports, they’ve been replacing them with new bombs since December 2022. October’s nuclear certification was two months earlier than the January 2024 deadline the Pentagon set. Although only publicly acknowledged by the United States on March 8, Dutch military officials wrote in a November X post that their F-35As had achieved “initial certification” to carry nuclear weapons.
US Congressman Suggests Destroying Gaza Like 'Hiroshima and Nagasaki' - Rep. Tim Walberg (R-MI) has come under fire for saying Gaza should be handled like “Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” suggesting that he was calling for a nuclear bomb to be dropped on the Strip, which could kill millions of Palestinians.Walberg made the comments at a town hall last week when asked about the US funding the construction of a port in Gaza, supposedly to bring in more aid. “We shouldn’t be spending a dime on humanitarian aid,” he said. “It should be like Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Get it over quick.”The genocidal comments became public when they surfaced in a video on social media. In response to the controversy, Walberg claimed he was using a “metaphor” by naming the only two cities in the world that have ever been hit with a nuclear bomb.“I used a metaphor to convey the need for both Israel and Ukraine to win their wars as swiftly as possible, without putting American troops in harm’s way,” he claimed. “My reasoning was the exact opposite of what is being reported: the quicker these wars end, the fewer innocent lives will be caught in the crossfire.”
The destruction of Gaza and American imperialism’s genocidal global war - Last week, Michigan Republican Congressman Tim Walberg urged the total destruction of Gaza in the manner of “Nagasaki and Hiroshima,” the Japanese cities the United States destroyed with atomic bombs in 1945 at the end of the Second World War. “We shouldn’t be spending a dime on humanitarian aid,” Walberg said at a town hall meeting in Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. “It should be like Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Get it over quick,” he said. The call by a congressman for the extermination of a completely defenseless and imprisoned population expresses the homicidal sentiments that have gripped the American ruling class. After decades of perpetual war, the United States is approaching a level of criminality hitherto associated only with Nazi Germany. The expressions of feigned outrage from Democratic Party officials are the height of hypocrisy. Representative Elissa Slotkin, one of the top “CIA Democrats,” called Walberg’s comments “a reprehensible thing for anyone to suggest.” In fact, the Republican congressman was expressing the fundamental content of the Biden administration’s policy toward Gaza. The Netanyahu government, with the support of the White House, has made the decision to raze Gaza to the ground, to starve its people to death, and expel those left alive, as part of its “final solution” to the Palestinian question. This is the meaning of Biden’s decision last week to send another 1,800 2,000-pound bombs to Israel. Israel will not use nuclear weapons in the tiny enclave of Gaza, which would render Israel itself uninhabitable and irradiate the beachfront real estate Israel hopes to seize once the Palestinians are displaced. But Israel has already dropped over 65,000 tons of ordnance on Gaza, more than three times the explosive power of the bombs that leveled Hiroshima and Nagasaki. As a result, over 54 percent of buildings in the Gaza strip were either damaged or destroyed, compared to 40 percent following the bombing of Nagasaki. Just as significant as Walberg’s open call for the extermination of the Palestinians, however, was what he had to say about the relationship of the genocide in Gaza to the US proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, and its looming conflict with China. Calling Israel “our greatest ally,” Walberg said that any moves to feed the starving population of Gaza would be a gift to “Iran and Russia” as well as “China.” After proposing a “Nagasaki and Hiroshima” solution for Gaza, Walberg immediately added, “It should be the same in Ukraine,” declaring that the aim of the US should be to “wipe out Russian forces.”
Western allies face genocide complicity if support for Israel continues -- An attack on a humanitarian convoy, killing several foreign aid workers. The destruction of a hospital with hundreds killed inside. An air raid on a consulate in a foreign country.These are just some of Israel’s actions in Gaza and the region this week, adding to the accusations of war crimes levelled against it, and even genocide.But, even as Israel’s Western allies face the possibility of charges for complicity in war crimes, many continue to send weapons to Israel and withhold funds from the main United Nations agency working in Gaza, despite the very real threat of famine among its population of roughly two million people.The charges of genocide – and the continuing case brought forward by South Africa at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – have done little to shift any of this.Late last month, the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian Territory Francesca Albanese sent a warning to Israel’s Western allies, issuing a report stating that there were clear indications that Israel was violating the UN Genocide Convention, and emphasising that complicity in genocide was also “expressly prohibited, giving rise to obligations for third states”.On this basis, Nicaragua has already taken Germany to the ICJ for violating international law by continuing to arm Israel. Individual groups around the world are also pursuing cases against their governments.And yet, Germany continues to provide arms to Israel. Other large-scale providers of weapons, such as the US, the UK and Australia have also stopped short of suspending weapons sales – even as more than 32,000 people have been killed in Gaza and more are killed every day.“A failure by states such as Germany, the UK and the US to reassess how they are providing support to Israel provides grounds to question whether those states are violating the obligation to prevent genocide or could even at some point be considered complicit in acts of genocide or other violations of international law,” Michael Becker, a professor of international human rights law at Trinity College in Dublin who has previously worked at the ICJ, told Al Jazeera.These countries are finding it harder to plead ignorance. In a leaked recording on Saturday, Alicia Kearns, a Conservative member who is the chair of the UK parliament’s foreign affairs committee, is heard saying that UK government lawyers have advised that Israel has breached international humanitarian law, but the British government has not announced it.Kearns stood by the comments when later asked.According to Charles Falconer, former UK lord chancellor, if the British government concedes that Israel has violated international law, it will have no choice but to stop sharing intelligence with Israel.A spokesperson for the UK foreign ministry stated that advice on Israel’s adherence to international humanitarian law remained under review and that: “Ministers act in accordance with that advice, for example when considering export licenses.”Specific legal advice to the government was confidential, they said. A leading British barrister, however, warned that the UK and other countries will be fearful of any future legal culpability. “All governments have teams of lawyers providing constant advice on who they are exporting weapons to,” Geoffrey Nice, who led the prosecution of Slobodan Milosevic, told Al Jazeera. “It’s inconceivable that the advice the British government has received [on events in Gaza] is materially different from that other countries have received.” “If we ever reach the point of a criminal hearing into the conduct of this war, as I expect we may, you’ll see many of the larger countries who are now backing Israel doing everything they can to prevent Israeli witnesses taking the stand to say, we were acting with their consent as they provided the arms.”
Democrats fear Israel-Hamas war could cost them in November Democrats are fearful that Israel’s war in Gaza is turning into a major political liability for President Biden and candidates down the ballot, and one that could get worse if it rages on into the summer and attention turns to his match-up with former President Trump. Biden is under increasing pressure from Democratic lawmakers over the worsening conditions in Gaza, growing fatalities and Israel’s likely invasion of the southern city of Rafah, where more than 1 million Palestinians are sheltering. Adding to those issues, Americans are increasingly disapproving of Israel’s actions. This has created a political headache for Democrats who are pushing the party to unite behind Biden and leading to concerns the issue could rear its head on the biggest stage in November. “It’s massive. If this war keeps going on, then it will continue to be a major problem,” one House Democrat told The Hill. “The sooner Biden can break from [Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] in a major way, then the better off he will be politically. It’s not just the progressives who are angry about the U.S. support of the Gaza operation — it’s now broader than that.” “I fear what the DNC in Chicago could look like,” the House Democrat added, referring to the Democrats’ quadrennial convention in late August. The outrage toward Biden over his handling of the war has been visible through protests following him around the country, and through organized boycotts of him at the ballot box. Last week, he was interrupted during two campaign stops: one in Raleigh, N.C., and one in New York City, when he was alongside former Presidents Obama and Clinton for a major donor event. And groups such as Abandon Biden and Our Revolution have organized efforts in states with high concentrations of Arab Americans, Muslim Americans and young people — including Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota — to encourage people to write “uncommitted” or “Gaza” on their ballot to send a message to Biden ahead of November.
Warren says she would move to block sale of F-15s to Israel -Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Thursday she would move to block the sale of F-15s to Israel after seven aid workers were killed in an Israeli airstrike in Gaza earlier this week. “I think it is clear that Congress has a responsibility to act. We have legal tools here. And as I said, we cannot approve the sale of arms to a country that is in violation of our own laws on this. And that includes access to humanitarian relief,” Warren said Thursday during an interview on “CNN News Central.”“This is a moral question; it is also a legal question. Congress has responsibility here, and I’m willing to take that responsibility,” she added. Seven aid workers with the World Central Kitchen were killed Monday while leaving a warehouse in central Gaza, where they delivered more than 100 tons of food aid. They were in two armored cars when the strike hit. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took responsibility Tuesday for the deadly strike and said it was a “tragic event in which our forces unintentionally harmed non-combatants in the Gaza Strip.”The strike came as the U.S. weighs a major new arms sale to Israel. The U.S. government is considering selling Israel up to 50 new F-15 fighter jets, 30 AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, and Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, equipment that can alter dumb bombs into precision-guided weapons. Asked if she is considering putting legislation on the floor to block arms sales to Israel, Warren said, “Actually, let’s put this in a slightly different context. We already have an established U.S. policy here.” CNN anchor Kate Bolduan interjected and asked the Massachusetts Democrat how this policy is enforced and prevents President Biden from approving the sale. “I think he best we can do here is that we need to all be working together and that’s the resident, that’s people in Congress,” Warren said. The death of the aid workers sparked staunch criticism of Israel’s continued military campaign, which has killed more than 32,000 Palestinians in Gaza since early October, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.Israel has vowed to eliminate the threat of Palestinian militant group Hamas following their surprise assault against southern Israel on Oct. 7 that killed about 1,200 people and kidnapped about 250 others. About 100 of these hostages were returned in a weeklong cease-fire late last year, and an estimated 100 others are believed to still be alive in Gaza. Biden, who said earlier this week that Israel has “not done enough” to protect aid workers and civilians in Gaza, is expected to speak with Netanyahu on Thursday.
Trump’s Israel criticism breaks with GOP, sows uncertainty Former President Trump’s growing criticism of Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza signals a glaring break from GOP talking points backing Israel’s right to self-defense. Trump allies played down the importance of his interview with Israeli reporters last week, saying his staunch support of Israel would continue in a potential second term. But his comments in recent days underscore Trump’s ambiguous positions on some of the major national security issues he will face should he return to the White House. John Bolton, who served for 17 months as Trump’s White House national security adviser, told The Hill the former president’s stance on Israel will largely depend on the environment he inherits and on what would best serve his own interests. “At bottom, Trump doesn’t have a national security policy,” Bolton said, calling the former president’s approach “ad hoc.” “He sees things primarily through the prism of, ‘Does this benefit Donald Trump?’” Bolton added. Trump blasted Israel’s destruction of Gaza during an interview with Israeli reporters last week, and he repeated some of those criticisms Thursday in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. Trump told Hewitt, “Israel is absolutely losing the PR war,” criticizing the images being played around the world showing massive destruction of Gaza. “You’ve got to get it over with, and you have to get back to normalcy. And I’m not sure that I’m loving the way they’re doing it, because you’ve got to have victory,” Trump said, without directly answering whether he was “100 percent with Israel.” In an interview with Israel Hayom last week, he said Israel made a “very big mistake” with the bombings in Gaza. “Israel has to get better with the promotional and with the public relations because right now they’re in ruin,” Trump added. “They’re being hurt very badly, I think, in a public relations sense.”
Israel, US Brace for Potential Iranian Retaliation for Syria Consulate Bombing -- The US and Israel are bracing for potential Iranian retaliation for the Israeli bombing of Iran’s consulate building in Damascus, which killed seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including a senior Quds Force commander and another general. Israel frequently kills Iranians in Syria and conducts covert attacks inside Iran, but the attack on the Iranian consulate marked a huge escalation in its campaign against Tehran. Iran is usually very restrained in its response to Israeli attacks, but according to Al Mayadeen, Israel’s Channel 13 reported that Israel is preparing for a direct Iranian attack. Israeli security sources said they believed Iran was “determined to respond more than ever before.” Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Israel is at its highest state of alert in preparation for a potential attack. A direct Iranian attack could be exactly what Israel wants since it appears to be trying to provoke a major regional war in hopes that the US would get directly involved. The US has denied any role in the Israeli attack on a diplomatic facility, but Iranian officials have said the US must be held “accountable” for its military support for Israel. According to AP, the US provides Israel with about 70% of its weapons imports and funds 15% of its military budget. The Israeli attack on the embassy appeared to be carried out using US-provided aircraft and munitions.
US Increased Intelligence Sharing With Israel to 'Unprecedented' Levels After October 7 - - The US increased intelligence sharing with Israel to “unprecedented” levels under a secret memorandum issued in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. The intelligence sharing and US weapons shipments have supported and facilitated Israel’s destruction of Gaza and the mass killing of civilians. “We are experiencing unprecedented levels of intelligence coordination,” Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said last week. The Journal report said there are growing concerns in Washington about the intelligence sharing with Israel since there’s very little oversight to see if it’s being used in strikes that kill civilians. “What I’m concerned about is making sure our intelligence sharing is consistent with our values and our national security interests,” said Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO).Crow added that he was worried “what we’re sharing right now isn’t advancing our interests.”On top of the increased intelligence sharing, the US also stepped up its own intelligence collection on Gaza and began flying MQ-9 Reaper drones for surveillance over the Strip. The Pentagon has insisted the intelligence being shared with Israel is only to help locate hostages, but US officials told CNN there’s no way of preventing Israel from using the intelligence to launch strikes.
What Really Happened on October 7? - Maureen Tkacik - It’s October 7, 2023, a few minutes before 7 a.m. A gang of Hamas fighters in a stolen pickup drives up upon a roadside bomb shelter crammed with maybe two dozen terrified ravers. One shoots off maybe seven bullets into the shelter, when another concocts a different plan. “That one is alive! That one, pull him by his hair!” he yells at his comrades, who dump a blood-streaked body into the back of the truck. “Don’t kill them, we need them as hostages,” the fighter yells at the others, as if he has just remembered, a dozen dead bodies too late, what he was supposed to do in the unthinkable circumstance he hadn’t been shot dead yet. They begin piling partygoers, limp but still alive, into the truck. The footage is from the body camera of a dead Hamas fighter obtained by Al Jazeera International, whose journalists Israel has repeatedly assassinated and which the Netanyahu government has been threatening to shutter for the past five months for allegedly “acting as [a] megaphone for Hamas’s military, operational, and propaganda messages.” But the Qatari investigative news agency’s new documentary October 7, which premiered this morning on YouTube, seems distinctly disinterested in preaching to the anti-Zionist choir. The Hamas portrayed in Al Jazeera’s tightly curated selection of footage swiftly disables the radar and communications towers, breaches the border fence, and seizes a dozen military bases—“We went into every corner and with our pure feet we stepped into every single hiding place, and there were no men to fight us,” one remarks, dumbfounded—only to spend the rest of the morning wandering around aimlessly, like a video game kid who doesn’t know what to do with himself now that he’s finally beaten the game. “They really don’t seem to know what exactly what they’re doing,” a military analyst observes, watching two fighters squabble with one another and raid the corpse of a dead colleague for extra ammunition. Whatever is responsible for the eerie, implausible absence of meaningful Israeli military resistance in the early hours of the attack—and October 7 echoes earlier reports in speculating that misogyny likely played a role—it does not seem to be the strategic genius of Hamas.The Israeli regime and its noxious mouthpieces in Washington have spouted so many lies about what Hamas did on October 7 that the conversation is often driven toward rebutting the charges that the group “beheaded 30 babies” or sliced a four-month-old fetus out of a dead woman, or gouged the eyes and breast out of a mother and father before moving on to the fingers and toes of the son and daughter they executed at an invaded kibbutz, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken testified before Congress in the weeks after the attack.But as October 7 shows, just because those claims were false doesn’t mean Hamas covered themselves in glory. They left a pile of dead bodies on the Nova festival stage before swiping what looked like a doughnut from a gas station convenience store, firing semiautomatic weapons randomly into car windows and port-a-potties, and killing more than three dozen Thai guest workers, though one who describes to Al Jazeera being dragged past a room full of his murdered colleagues suggests Gazan civilians led his particular abduction. “Hamas fighters committed crimes on October 7,” the narrator points out. “The Israeli media, however, focuses not on the crimes Hamas committed, but on crimes they did not.”Indeed, it is almost as though the Israelis channeled all of the efficiency and efficacy that failed their military on October 7 into the deployment of a vast edifice of insta-mythology designed to bolster a notion of Palestinians as an inherently subhuman people. Chief of this project is a man named Yossi Landau, an ultra-Orthodox first responder who operates throughout Israel and, occasionally, in South Florida. Landau, who is interviewed in the documentary, was the original source of the beheaded babies lie, and most of what formed the basis for the New York Times’debunked investigation into the alleged systematic sexual abuse perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, among other enthusiastically shared tales of horror.In interviews, Landau comes off like the used-car salesman you’d expect. Discussing one claim about finding a pregnant woman whose “stomach was butchered open” and whose “baby that was connected to the cord was stabbed,” he insists to a reporter that “if you want to see the picture I have the picture of it.” When the reporter apologizes that he “can’t see a baby here,” Landau stammers that he “didn’t think when we were, we didn’t think, we didn’t think to camera everything …”The photo, it turns out, depicts what the narrator describes as “an unidentifiable piece of charred flesh,” which as it happens is not so unlike many of the bodies that fill Landau’s accounts of unspeakable depravity. “The bodies is telling us the stories that happened to them,” he explains in one video. As October 7 notes, the IDF has repeatedly debunked those stories on the basis of basic forensic evidence, most notably when it revised downward by 200 its estimated body count upon realizing some of the dead bodies are Palestinian.Which brings us to one of the incomprehensibly less-scrutinized parts of the disaster explored in October 7: the hundreds of civilians, dozens of their cars, and numerous homes and buildings charred beyond comprehension on the day of the attack. Hamas had some rockets, but did it really have the weaponry capable of mounting this level of destruction? Western journalists have reported that Hamas was fully responsible. Al Jazeera’s documentary is much more circumspect, and in a way, so is the IDF.
US and UK Have Bombed Yemen 148 Times Since January - At least 148 missile strikes have hit Yemen since the US and the UK launched a new bombing campaign against the Houthis in January, according to the Yemen Data Project (YDP). YDP said in the first 80 days of the US-led bombing campaign that started on January 12, a total of 339 munitions have hit Yemen, averaging more than four per day. The UK has joined the US in several rounds of missile strikes, but most have been unilateral US attacks on Houthi-controlled Yemen.YDP said there was a drop in strikes in March, with 35 recorded, compared with 79 in February. The group said there were no reports of civilian casualties in March after 11 were recorded in February.Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in March that a total of 34 Houthi fighters had been killed since the Yemeni group, officially known as Ansar Allah, began targeting Israel-linked shipping in the Red Sea last year in response to the onslaught in Gaza.The US-British bombing campaign has done nothing to deter the Red Sea attacks and has only escalated the situation as the Houthis began targeting American and British shipping in response. In January, President Biden acknowledged the bombing wasn’t “working” but vowed to continue anyway.The Houthis have been clear that the only way they would stop targeting Israel-linked shipping is if the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza comes to an end. But the US chose escalation instead of pressuring the Israelis to stop by leveraging military aid.The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the group only became more of a capable fighting force during that time.
US Envoy Suggests Diplomacy With the Houthis as Bombing Campaign Has Failed - Tim Lenderking, President Biden’s envoy for Yemen, said the US wants a “diplomatic solution” with the Houthis as its bombing campaign has failed to deter the Yemeni group and has only escalated the situation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. “My hope is that we can find diplomatic off-ramps,” Lenderking said on Wednesday. He suggested the US could reverse its recent decision to re-designate the Houthis as “Specially Designated Global Terrorists,” which imposed new sanctions that are blocking a peace deal between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.Lenderking said the US is looking to “find ways to de-escalate and allow us to pull back, eventually, the designation and, of course, to end the military strikes on Houthis’ military capability.”The Houthis have been clear that they would only stop their attacks on Israel-linked shipping if Israel ends its genocidal campaign in Gaza. Lenderking has previously acknowledged that he believes the Houthis would be true to their word and would stop the Red Sea attacks if there was a ceasefire in Gaza. Since President Biden launched his new unauthorized war against the Houthis on January 12, the US and the UK have bombed Yemen at least 148 times, according to the Yemen Data Project. Despite the failure of the campaign, the US continues to launch missile strikes on Houthi-controlled Yemen.
US, Japan & Philippines To Launch Joint Patrols In South China Sea Amid Beijing Tensions - The US, Japan, and the Philippines have inked an agreement to launch joint naval patrols in the South China Sea later this year in what's being seen as a major initiative to counter China in the region, and as Chinese and Philippine coast guard boats have recently been engaged in tense stand-offs over disputed waters. The patrols are expected to be formally announced in April during the first ever trilateral summit of President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and Philippine President Ferdinand Marco Jr. A White House announcement previewing the summit said the three leaders will discuss ways to "further peace and security in the Indo-Pacific." Japan continues to deepen its military and technological integration with the West with an eye on defense against China. There are new reports that PM Kishida could be invited to upcoming NATO summit set for Washington, DC in July. Politico reports of other areas of deepened cooperation with Western allies as follows:The White House is also expected to announce that it will "seriously consider" having Japan as a technological partner in elements of the "AUKUS" security partnership between the U.S., U.K. and Australia, according to a Defense Department official and another person familiar with the planning, both granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement.In a recent incident, a Chinese vessel injured several crew members aboard a Philippine supply boat when it unleashed water cannon fire on the vessel. Following this and other incidents, on Sunday Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian said, "We warn the Philippines to cease making any statements that may escalate tensions and stop all acts of encroachment.""If the Philippines continues to challenge China’s bottom line, China will continue to take resolute measures to firmly defend its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests," he continued.Since coming into power in 2022 Philippine President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. has taken a much harder line when it comes to China’s claims to the South China Sea. At the same time, Manilla has also been emboldened by the fact that the Pentagon is beefing up its assets both in the Philippines and in regional waters. China has meanwhile been on a years-long campaign to bolster its expansive claims by establishing a series of manmade islands and subsequently militarizing them.
Biden-Xi phone call underscores US confrontation, not cooperation, with China --US President Joseph Biden held a lengthy phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday which both sides described in the anodyne language of diplomacy as “candid and constructive.” In reality, nothing was resolved, as Biden, who had requested the call, restated the key elements of Washington’s economic and strategic confrontation with Beijing. Taiwan looms as a major flashpoint with the inauguration of William Lai Ching-te, an advocate of Taiwanese independence, as the island’s new president on May 20. The Biden administration has deliberately inflamed tensions over Taiwan by all but tearing up the One China policy under which the US de facto recognises Beijing as the legitimate government of all China, including Taiwan. China has repeatedly warned that it will forcibly reunite the island with the Chinese mainland should Taiwan declare formal independence. According to the Chinese foreign ministry account of the phone call, Biden reassured Xi that the US did not support “Taiwan independence,” follows the One China policy and does not seek conflict with China. Moreover, Washington’s objective was “not to change China’s system” and US alliances were not targeted against China. Not a word of this will be believed in Beijing. The Biden administration has ended longstanding diplomatic protocols limiting official US contact with Taipei, boosted the provision and sale of arms to Taiwan and stationed American military “trainers” in Taiwan, including on islets just kilometres from the Chinese mainland. More broadly, the US has strengthened its military alliances and encouraged a greater NATO presence and greatly expanded joint war games throughout the Indo-Pacific, all aimed against China. Indeed, Biden is to hold a meeting next week at the White House with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that is aimed at boosting military ties between the three allies. Xi stressed the potentially explosive character of “the Taiwan question” as “the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations.” According to the Chinese foreign ministry, Xi issued what was a blunt warning. “In the face of ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities and external encouragement and support for them, China is not going to sit on its hands,” it stated. “He urged the US side to translate President Biden’s commitment of not supporting ‘Taiwan independence’ into concrete actions.” The US read-out of the phone call, while short on detail, reiterated “the importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and the rule of law and freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.” In other words, Biden made no significant attempt to defuse the issue, which has also been inflamed by US Navy provocations in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea on the pretext of “freedom of navigation.”
The United States needs to get troops out of Niger -- Earlier this month, the government of Niger revoked its military cooperation agreement with the United States and demanded the withdrawal of approximately 1,000 U.S. military personnel from the West African nation. Washington is currently negotiating with the Nigerien junta, which came to power in a July coup, to keep a contingent of troops in place, perhaps at a lower level. That is a bad idea, however, on the part of the Biden administration. Instead of trying to stay, the United States needs to take this opportunity to do what Niamey asked it do: i.e., leave. U.S. interests in Niger are marginal at best and the costs of the U.S. troop presence are growing under the current regime. By revoking military cooperation with Washington, Niger just gave the United States a glidepath to properly rebalance policy commitments in West Africa. The Biden administration needs to take advantage of that, which starts by moving forces out of Niger.There are several reasons why drawing down from Niger makes sense today. For starters, the U.S. has few strategic interests at stake in Niger. In 2013, U.S. forces deployed to Niger to help combat terrorist organizations affiliated with al Qaeda and later ISIS. None of these local terrorist groups have ever threatened or attempted to attack the United States or its closest allies, however. Instead, as numerous studies indicate, all are locally-focused insurgencies with exclusively regional, not global, objectives — they are, in short, al-Qaeda or ISIS in name only. That means the United States is applying too much force against too little threat today in Niger. Added to that, after a decade of supporting counterterrorism operations in Niger and West Africa more broadly, it is abundantly clear U.S. policy isn’t working. Attacks by local terrorist groups have exploded across the region since U.S. troops arrived. In 2023, the Sahel region ranked the highest worldwide accounting for 43 percent of all global terrorism deaths — a 7 percent increase from the prior year. With the terror threat to the U.S. low and counterterrorism operations largely ineffective, why are there U.S. forces in Niger standing in harm’s way? There is no good answer to that question. Until the coup in July, U.S. forces in Niger conducted mainly air surveillance operations via drones to monitor local terrorist groups. That sort of over-the-horizon work can be done from a more stable regional country, where the threat to U.S. military personnel is lower. The Pentagon already has plans in the works for such a move. In sum, the U.S. deployments in Niger just aren’t that critical to U.S. security interests today. Stemming Russian influence in West Africa (another interest often cited by U.S. officials) doesn’t offer a compelling reason to keep U.S. troops in Niger today either. So-called Russian influence has come with the introduction of Wagner (now, Africa Corps) mercenaries invited in by several West African governments to combat local terrorist insurgencies and provide regime security. All of these Russian forces have entered the region since U.S. troops arrived in Niger. That begs the question: If the U.S. troop presence hasn’t worked to keep Russian intervention and influence at bay to this point, why should we expect it to do so going forward? Serious questions exist about whether Russia even gains geopolitically from engagement in West Africa, which raises still more questions about how much the U.S. should focus on competing with them here. One thing is certain, though: The U.S. troop presence in Niger is a poor tool to carry on this competition and hence a poor reason to keep U.S. troops in Niger today. Nigerien leaders made a strategic decision to establish defense ties with Russia. As the rampant post-Wagner increase in violence and instability in neighboring Mali indicates, that choice may be one they come to regret. That is all the more reason to get U.S. troops out and find other, non-military ways to engage Niger and its struggling population.Finally, the costs of the U.S. troop presence in Niger are now dangerously high, outpacing any benefits to keep those troops in place. U.S. forces came into Niger to support a large French counterterrorism operation in West Africa. Today, French forces are gone, having been kicked out of Mali, Burkina-Faso and Niger over the last two years. Other European and Canadian support forces are gone too.
Biden Halts Attempts To Refill SPR As Oil Price Soars More than a year ago, we laughed at the thought that the Biden admin would actually follow through with its promise to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when oil fell below $80, which in turn prompted area idiots to really rub it in our face when WTI tumbled as low as $73. In retrospect we were, of course, right (and area idiots will continue failing upward until finally someone gives them the old rugpull) because even though WTI did indeed spend a few months below $80 before exploding back up again, this is how much oil the Biden admin purchased to refill the SPR after it intentionally drained it in 2022 to limit the surge in gas prices. Can't see it? It's highlighted in the yellow circle (yeah, no wonder you can't see it). And now that WTI is back to $86 and the Biden admin has completely missed its window to add some more oil to the SPR besides the token several hundred barrels here and there, the Biden administration has capitulated and today announced it won’t move forward with its latest plans to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve amid rising prices.According to Bloomberg, Biden's Energy Department said it was “keeping the taxpayer’s interest at the forefront” in its decision not to purchase as many as 3 million barrels of oil for a Strategic Petroleum Reserve site in Louisiana. The plan for the barrels to be delivered in August and September had been announced in mid-March. It has now been canceled meaning that the already dismal rate of SPR refill will now flatline for the foreseeable future, at least until the NBER admits the US is in a recession. “We will not award the current solicitations for the Bayou Choctaw SPR site and will solicit available capacity as market conditions allow,” the department said. “We will continue to monitor market dynamics.”The capitulation follows a surge in crude prices, with WTI on Tuesday rising above $86 a barrel for the first time since October. The Biden administration has a target to buy oil at $79 or lower to refill the reserve, though spent an average of about $81 a barrel in its latest purchase of 2.8 million barrels late last month.The Energy Department has been slowly refilling the emergency oil supply after it reached a 40-year-low following the administration’s unprecedented drawdown of a record 180 million barrels in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It currently holds about 363 million barrels, according to Energy Department data, down from almost 600 million at the start of 2022.And just like that anyone hoping that Biden would add more than a few drops to the SPR can stop holding their breath: “Domestic crude prices are likely to remain too high for the remainder of the year for DOE to resume its refilling program,” said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to President George W. Bush.
Is Saudi Arabia trying to sabotage Biden? -- Is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman trying to sabotage Joe Biden’s reelection bid? It’s quite possible. The Saudi leader, known as MBS, has made clear his disdain for President Biden, and his fury over insults lobbed at him by this White House. He is a powerful force behind the current surge in oil prices, which could — if sustained — contribute to Biden’s defeat. Oil prices are soaring — up 19 percent since the start of the year. Since they lag behind crude oil, gasoline prices have only jumped 14 percent so far. But, unless oil markets take a giant step backwards, prices at the pump will steadily increase into the summer driving season and pummel Biden’s popularity. This happened two years ago. As gasoline prices rose to an all-time high of $5 per gallon in June 2022, Biden’s approval ratings tanked. He started the year at 43.2 percent approval and by the July 4 holiday, when millions of Americans take to the roads, he had slipped to 38.1 percent. In recent days, OPEC+ held a ministerial meeting at which members recommitted to continuing voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until June. The decision had been expected, but nonetheless signaled that Saudi Arabia and Russia, the world’s leading oil exporters, are determined to keep prices high. MBS is the key decision-maker for Saudi Arabia; by virtue of the kingdom’s unique position as “swing producer,” he is also the dominant voice within OPEC+. For Russia, high oil prices are critical to winning its battle with Ukraine. Biden, after Putin invaded its neighbor, boasted that the U.S. and its allies were imposing draconian penalties to hold Moscow accountable. Biden said, “The totality of our sanctions and export controls is crushing the Russian economy.” He cited the sharp decline of the ruble and predicted the Moscow stock exchange would “probably collapse.” Since that day, one month into the conflict, the ruble has rebounded 47 percent and the main Russian stock index is up 37 percent, only 25 percent below its all-time high. How has Russia managed? By teaming with the Saudis to curtail production and boost oil prices. For the Russians, high oil prices are a matter of survival. For the Saudis, skyrocketing oil costs are essential to fulfilling the grandiose economic vision of MBS. They are also key to exacting revenge against Biden, who early on went out of his way to insult the young heir apparent. The White House indicated it intended to “recalibrate” its relationship with the Saudis, and especially with MBS, who had worked successfully with the Trump White House. Having vowed on the campaign trail in 2019 to make Saudi Arabia “the pariah that they are,” Biden initially shunned the crown prince, agreeing to speak only to his ailing father King Salman. In addition, the White House released a report accusing MBS of responsibility for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and terminated sales of offensive weapons needed by Saudi Arabia to conduct its war in Yemen. Moreover, Biden rescinded Trump’s terror designation for the Houthis, despite the group having attacked Saudi oil infrastructure. Worse, the Biden team attempted to revive the nuclear deal with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s bitter enemy. Early in Biden’s presidency, the Saudis surprised oil traders by leading OPEC to not increase oil output, despite rising demand; prices jumped 4 percent. It was MBS’s first salvo, reminding Biden of the importance of the U.S.-Saudi alliance, which has been in place since 1945, and of his own ascendance. When oil prices soared in 2022, Biden went to MBS for help, begging him to increase output. But he would not shake hands with the crown prince, offering instead a widely-mocked “fist bump.” That’s how idiotically Biden has managed this critical relationship. In coming months we will find out just how critical the relationship is. If oil prices continue to march higher, Biden will no doubt pull out all the diplomatic stops to get OPEC+ to open the spigots. Last time, he dampened rising prices by draining the Strategic Petroleum Reserve; that emergency storage is down to 362,000 barrels, the lowest level since 1983. Biden cannot go there again. Other factors will certainly influence Biden’s standing in coming months, but oil prices could prove key as they drive inflation higher. In a recent poll, 22 percent of voters ranked inflation as their top issue; rising prices at the pump will keep the problem top of mind even if the overall inflation level continues to moderate. The same survey showed only 38 percent of voters describing the economy under Biden as good, compared to 65 percent saying it was good under Trump.
Biden extends some immigrant work permits, potentially saving thousands of jobs -The Biden administration on Thursday is announcing an extension of work permits for certain categories of immigrants, potentially preventing hundreds of thousands of people from losing their jobs overnight. United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is publishing a temporary final rule in the Federal Register to automatically extend the validity of Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) from 180 to 540 days. That means eligible immigrants whose EADs have expired since Oct. 27 will remain eligible to work for at least another 360 days, while their EAD renewals are processed. “Over the last year, the USCIS workforce reduced processing times for most EAD categories, supporting an overall goal to improve work access to eligible individuals,” USCIS Director Ur Jaddou said. “However, we also received a record number of employment authorization applications, impacting our renewal mechanisms.” “Temporarily lengthening the existing automatic extension up to 540 days will avoid lapses in employment authorizations,” Jaddou added. “At the same time, this rule provides DHS with an additional window to consider long-term solutions by soliciting public comments, and identifying new strategies to ensure those noncitizens eligible for employment authorization can maintain that benefit.” The two largest groups benefited by the change will be asylum-seekers and foreign nationals who are in the process of changing their status to permanent residency. In all, up to 800,000 immigrants were at risk of losing their work permits without the new rule, according to a USCIS spokesperson. USCIS will also benefit from the change: It has been aggressively rebuilding its processing capacity after the Trump administration refocused the agency away from processing applications, degrading its ability to deliver quick decisions. That reconstruction also came as asylum applications ballooned, adding to the agency’s historic backlog, though USCIS managed in fiscal 2023 to reduce that backlog for the first time in a decade. Advocates, mayors and business leaders were growing uneasy with an April 24 deadline when some workers would have started to lose their authorization. It’s the second time the Biden administration has announced an extension to 540 days. The first extension, announced in 2022, had a sunset on Oct. 27, 2023, when automatic extensions reverted to 180 days. All categories of immigrants covered by the 2022 extension will be covered by the new one as well. The implementation of 540-day extensions now also means the problem is unlikely to reoccur. Since September, USCIS has been granting five-year EADs to eligible immigrants, rather than the two-year EADs that were standard before.
Migrant children held in fetid open-air encampments near Southern California-Mexico border -- The Biden administration’s brutal crackdown on undocumented immigrants has resulted in tens of thousands of asylum seekers languishing in outdoor holding areas in the Southern California-Mexico border region while waiting to be apprehended and taken to detention centers. The holding areas, which are essentially outdoor encampments, have no sewerage systems, running water and basic supplies of any kind. Immigration detention centers are themselves strained to capacity as asylum claims, when not denied outright, often take an interminably long time to process, if at all. According to a recent article in the New York Times, recent heavy rains have led to asylum seekers to seek shelter in dumpsters and overflowing porta-potties. Volunteers visiting the migrants have recorded deep lacerations, broken bones, fevers, diarrhea, vomiting and seizures. One medical volunteer called the situation “apocalyptic.” The broken bones and lacerations are often the result of attempts to scale border walls and pass through concertina wire. On March 2, a mass casualty event was recorded at the border wall at the US-Mexico border in San Diego, California, as 10 people fell from the top of the 30-foot-high wall. Moreover, long treks through deserts on both sides of the border often lead to severe dehydration and associated maladies. “From a public health standpoint, there are communicable diseases and outdoor exposures that would strike anyone down, much less this medically vulnerable population,” Dr. Theresa Cheng, a San Francisco-based emergency room physician providing services at the border area, told the Times. Young migrants and even infants are particular susceptible to disease and malnutrition, with volunteers reporting migrants eating leaves after trying to survive for five days or longer without food. Mothers had also reportedly stopped producing breast milk for their infants due to trauma, with no formula provided by border patrol officers as a substitute. Last Friday, a Federal District Court judge in California questioned the Biden administration’s claim that it holds no responsibility for the housing and feeding of migrant children at two of the encampments at the border fence in San Diego and at another remote mountainous region east of the city. The legal challenge brought before the court by immigrant rights groups argues that as the children are in government custody, they must be given access to toilets, food, drinking water and emergency medical care through the provisions of a 1997 ruling known as the Flores agreement. The agreement also specifies that migrant children must be turned over within 72 hours to the US Health and Human Services Department, which in turn releases the minors to family in the United States while a judge considers asylum. The argument raised by lawyers for the administration and US Customs and Border Patrol is that the migrants are not officially in US custody while outside of an official detention center and thus were not entitled to receive food and medical care. “Minors in these areas—close to the California-Mexico border—have not been arrested or apprehended by C.B.P. and are not in the custody of C.B.P.” When US District Judge Dolly Gee challenged the Justice Department’s (DOJ) custody claims by asking if the migrants were “free to leave” the area, DOJ attorney Fizza Batool responded, “As long as they do not proceed further into the United States.”
Bloomberg Admits '10,000 Migrant Crossings A Day' Has 'Upended The Election' -While Paul 'not my child porn' Krugman and other idiots want you to believe that illegal immigration is actually a good thing for America and will boost GDP by $7 trillion, Bloomberg is a bit more realistic... Even worse for Joe Biden's handlers (i.e. whoever's running the government) is that Bloomberg wrote this up as a 'human interest' story: The coils of barbed wire at the edge of Poncho Nevarez’s ranch on the Rio Grande were meant as a deterrent. Instead, they just tore at the bodies and clothes of desperate migrants who clambered through to Eagle Pass, Texas.The fence installed by the National Guard was, in Nevarez’s view, both horribly barbaric and largely ineffective, like so much of the border-enforcement push that’s popped up around his 500 acres—the state police, the helicopters, the drones and river buoys.“None of this stuff solves the problem,” said Nevarez, a former Democratic state lawmaker, as he stood next to a mound of discarded clothes, diapers and other detritus left behind by migrants on his land.Here's the crux of the argument:Immigration has erupted into a defining issue of the 2024 ballot, with a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll finding it second only to the economy as voters’ top concern. Courts are bogged down by unprecedented levels of cases—federal agents encountered 10,000 people a day crossing the southern border in December—and the tumult has exposed the US system as underfunded, opaque and bursting at the seams.“This is gonna decide who becomes the president, how it’s handled,” Nevarez said.Meanwhile, Donald Trump has made the border his signature issue in his 2024 campaign - vowing to launch the largest deportation operation in US history if he's reelected. Bloomberg would like you to know he's also a racist, "sometimes borrowing rhetoric from White nationalist groups that warn about a “poisoning” of the nation’s blood."
Cleanup begins on collapsed Baltimore bridge as Biden places official response in the hands of corporations - In the days following last week’s collapse of a major Baltimore-area bridge after a collision with a container ship, the Biden administration has responded by shielding those responsible, while acting primarily to uphold the profit interests of American and world capitalism.The Biden administration has pledged to reopen the Port of Baltimore, the country’s largest vehicle port, and limit the impact of the disaster on supply chains. The White House responded immediately by releasing $60 million in “quick release” Emergency Relief funds, while doing nothing so far to hold responsible the ship’s operator Synergy Marine or shipping giant Maersk which contracted the vessel. However, there are indications that the poor condition of the ship, which lost power shortly before the accident, played a major role. The ship was involved in an earlier collision in 2016 in Belgium and was cited last year for propulsion issues.On Sunday, work finally began on the removal of debris from the Francis Scott Key Bridge from the Patapsco River, the beginning of a lengthy operation. “This work is not going to take hours. This work is not going to take days. This work is not going to take weeks. We have a very long road ahead of us,” said Maryland Governor Wes Moore.The removal of the bridge’s remains is not only critical for reopening the shipping channel leading to the Port of Baltimore. It is also necessary for the recovery of the remains of four construction workers, who were on the bridge at the time of collapse, which are likely encased in the wreckage. Two of the eight workers were rescued while the bodies of two more were recovered last week, before recovery operations had to be halted. However, the White House views the disaster as primarily an economic event. They convened two sessions of the National Economic Council’s Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force on Wednesday and Friday to discuss the government’s “response to supply chain impacts stemming from the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge and partial closure of the Port of Baltimore.”On Thursday, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg chaired a “stakeholder listening session” involving representatives from government agencies, major corporations and the union bureaucracy. Significantly, one of the companies in attendance was Maersk.According to a readout of the Thursday meeting, discussion centered around “how to mitigate current and future supply chain disruptions stemming from the suspension of vessel traffic into and out of the Port of Baltimore.” The statement then added that the Department of Transportation “continues to communicate with port, labor, and industry partners to advance collaboration at all levels—borne out of the lessons learned during COVID-driven disruptions.”In other words, the response to the bridge collapse will be modeled after the completely inadequate response to the pandemic, where schools and workplaces have been left open to mass infection and death to ensure the continued flow of profits. The government, having long dismantled all remaining public safety measures, falsely declared the pandemic over, even as it continues to kill more than 1,000 Americans a week. The working class, not the corporate elite responsible for the disaster, will be made to foot the bill.
The EPA wanted to clean up steel mills. Then a group of Rust Belt senators got involved. --In early March, a small group of Democratic senators from the Rust Belt sent President Joe Biden an urgent letter. They began by extolling the benefits of two of the Biden administration’s biggest achievements, the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act, calling them “historic investments in our nation’s infrastructure” that will ring in a brighter future for American manufacturing. But there was something, they cautioned, that threatened to hamper this progress: the Environmental Protection Agency’s planned regulations for integrated iron and steel mills, proposed last July and nearing a court-ordered deadline.“We are concerned that the EPA’s proposed integrated steel rules will do what foreign competitors have thus far been unable to do: deter and diminish continued American investment in improving our steel industry,” wrote the five senators, among them Joe Manchin of West Virginia and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. They claimed the regulations would cost companies billions, enough to force widespread layoffs, despitethe EPA’s estimate of $7.1 million in costs for the two companies, U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs, that own all 10 of the country’s steel mills.Shortly after the senators sent off the letter, the EPA unveiled its final rule, the first time the agency has ever attempted to cut emissions from leaks and equipment malfunctions at steel mills. The EPA expects the new regulations will cut particle pollution by 473 tons every year. But the final rule is weaker than the one it proposed in 2023. Whereas the agency had originally planned to slash steel mills’ toxic emissions by 79 tons per year, a 15 percent decrease overall, the final version is expected to cut emissions by 64 tons each year. The EPA also dropped a proposed limit on the thickness of the smoke emanating from mills’ doors and roof vents. Jim Pew, a senior attorney at Earthjustice who has litigated multiple lawsuits against the agency for its failure to curb steel mill pollution, told Grist that the regulations will have “real benefits” for the people living in the shadows of the country’s most polluting steel mills, but lamented the safeguards that were removed. “It’s a small step in the right direction,” he said, noting that the EPA had furnished the final rule with a standard to regulate a type of incinerator used by some highly polluting mills. “The steel companies mounted a real disinformation campaign about the cost of the rule that I think put pressure on EPA to take out some provisions that would have been beneficial.”The new rule gives the country’s steel companies two years to update their facilities with the requisite emission reduction equipment and workplace standards. In an email, an EPA spokesperson said the agency had “carefully considered the stakeholder feedback and made data-driven modifications in the final rule that provide needed flexibility, while also providing health protections for surrounding communities.”
COVID subcommittee chair asks top science journal editors to testify on relationship with federal government -Rep. Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio), chair of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic, issued letters to the editors of three major science journals on Tuesday, asking them to testify on the relationship between their publications and the federal government. Wenstrup sent letters to the editors-in-chief of The Lancet, Science and Nature science journals requesting their testimony for a hearing on April 16. The hearing will be titled “Academic Malpractice: Examining the Relationship Between Scientific Journals, the Government, and Peer Review.” In his letters, Wenstrup stated that the hearing would be to examine “whether these journals granted the federal government inappropriate access into the scientific review or publishing process.” These journals were in contact with top White House health officials like Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins according to Freedom of Information Act requests, Wenstrup wrote. He did not cite any specific reports or studies in his letters to the editors-in-chief. A search for research articles containing the term “COVID-19” on the websites of the three science journals results in nearly 19,000 results. The Hill has reached out to The Lancet, Science and Nature for comment. The select subcommittee has continued to bring in officials and experts who were active during the COVID-19 pandemic. At the start of the year, Fauci took part in two days of closed-door interviews with the subcommittee. When reached for a comment, a spokesperson for Select Subcommittee Democrats said in a statement, “For more than a year, Select Subcommittee Republicans have relied on spurious conjecture to build an extreme, partisan, and conspiratorial narrative against our nation’s public health officials. Their probe—done so under the guise of investigating COVID’s origins—has failed to constructively advance our nation’s pandemic preparedness and public health. “Nearly half a million pages of documents; more than a dozen transcribed interviews with current and former federal public health officials and researchers; and every COVID-19 origins hearing that we’ve had to date has in no way revealed a cover-up of the pandemic’s origins nor a suppression of the lab leak theory on the parts of Dr. Fauci and Dr. Collins. While the Majority continues its fishing expedition, Select Subcommittee Democrats will remain focused on forward-looking solutions that protect the American people’s health,” they added.
Biden rolls back Trump expansion of short-term ‘junk’ insurance plans The Biden administration is cracking down on insubstantial health insurance plans that don’t have to meet ObamaCare’s consumer protection requirements. A final rule issued Thursday would roll back a Trump-era policy that drastically expanded what Biden officials and critics call “junk” plans. The final rule limits the duration of the insurance plans to three months, with the option of a one-month extension. Plans will also be required to provide consumers with a clear explanation of the limits of the coverage they provide. People being sold short-term plans have often been told they are cheaper than ObamaCare-compliant coverage, but not about the limits of coverage. So people with preexisting medical conditions could be charged more or even denied coverage. Short-term plans were originally meant to be temporary safety nets to help people avoid gaps in health coverage, for example if they were transitioning between jobs. The Obama administration passed regulations aimed at limiting their use, imposing a limit of less than three months. But after the Trump administration failed to repeal the law, it issued regulations making short-term plans more accessible in an effort to weaken the law. People could stay on the plans for a year, and they could be renewed for up to three years, rather than three months. After that, they could apply again and renew for another three years. Democrats and other critics have derided these plans as “junk” insurance plans that undermined the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by creating a parallel market. Healthy people would have an incentive to ditch more comprehensive ACA plans for cheaper coverage, driving up costs for the sicker people who remain on ACA exchange plans. The White House is framing the rule as part of the Biden administration’s efforts to reduce costs for consumers.
Florida Supreme Court hands down two key abortion decisions The Florida Supreme Court in two rulings Monday upheld the state’s 15-week abortion ban, but also approved a ballot measure that would protect abortion access if voters pass it in November. In upholding the current ban, a majority of the conservative-leaning court said the state’s constitutional right to privacy does not include abortion. Five of the seven justices currently on the court were appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), and several have deep connections to the anti-abortion movement. The decision means a separate six-week ban will be triggered and will take effect on May 1 — banning abortion before many women know they are pregnant. DeSantis signed the six-week ban into law last year, just before he announced his presidential run. Even with a 15-week ban, Florida has become a haven for women seeking abortions from other states with even stricter laws, so the change in policy will be felt across the Southeast and beyond, as the influx of patients puts a strain on out-of-state abortion clinics. Data gathered by the Guttmacher Institute showed that there were nearly 5,000 more abortions provided in Florida in the first six months of 2023. “This is about to create an unprecedented public health crisis in the state of Florida. This is the largest single loss of care that we’ve seen since the overturn of Roe v. Wade, and we can’t fully understand what the impact will be,” said Lauren Brenzel, campaign director for the Yes on 4 initiative. Virginia is now the only state in the South that allows abortion beyond the first trimester. Alabama, Louisiana and Mississippi have banned abortion at all stages of pregnancy with limited exceptions, as have Tennessee and Kentucky. Georgia and South Carolina ban abortion after a fetal “heartbeat” has been detected, which is usually around six weeks. Abortion is banned in North Carolina at 12 weeks and later. Florida’s six-week ban includes exceptions for rape, incest, medical emergencies and certain “fetal anomalies.” The law would also provide $25 million in state funding every year for crisis pregnancy centers, which aim to dissuade people from getting abortions. But voters in November will be able to decide if they want the six-week ban to continue. Facing an April 1 deadline to rule, the court in a separate decision sided with a coalition of abortion rights groups sponsoring the ballot initiative. By greenlighting the measure, the court dealt a serious blow to DeSantis and GOP Attorney General Ashley Moody, who opposed it. The dueling decisions all but ensure abortion rights will be a major issue in Florida during a presidential election. If passed, the initiative would roll back the state’s current 15-week ban to the point of viability, about 24 weeks, when the fetus can survive outside the womb. “When voters head to the polls this November, they will send a message to Florida politicians that decisions about whether or not to have an abortion should be between a patient and a provider, not a constituent and their politician,” Brenzel said.
Democratic senator eyeing bill to repeal Comstock Act - Congressional Democrats are strategizing over legislation to repeal the Comstock Act, the 19th century anti-vice law that’s being eyed by conservative activists to potentially enact a national abortion ban. Sen. Tina Smith (D-Minn.) said in a New York Times op-ed Tuesday that she wants to introduce a bill “to take away the Comstock Act as a tool to limit reproductive freedom.” Smith said she is speaking with House and Senate Democrats to build support for a potential bill, but the talks were only in the initial phases and there was no timeline for the legislation to be introduced. “Legislation to repeal Comstock could take many forms, and we need to do it the right way,” Smith wrote. In the House, Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) in a post on X also called for the law to be repealed, saying it’s a “dead law that the far-right is trying to reanimate.” It is unlikely a Comstock repeal bill would get very far in the current divided Congress, but Democrats are committed to elevating abortion as an election year issue. The 151-year-old law explicitly prohibits the shipment of “every article or thing designed, adapted or intended for producing abortion.” Anti-abortion groups contend the Biden administration violated the law when it allowed the abortion drug mifepristone to be sent through the mail. During oral arguments at the Supreme Cout last week over the constitutionality of that move and other administration efforts to expand access mifepristone, Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito repeatedly invoked the Comstock Act. The law wasn’t enforceable while Roe v. Wade was on the books, and it hasn’t been applied in nearly a century. But now that Roe has been overturned, anti-abortion activists see an opening. These activists, working with former Trump administration officials, have been laying the groundwork for the next Republican administration to apply the Comstock Act to prevent the mailing of any abortion drugs and materials, effectively banning all abortions without needing Congress to act. The last time Democrats introduced any legislation related to the Comstock Act was in 1997, when former Rep. Barney Frank (Mass.) led the Comstock Cleanup Act of 1997, which would have repealed the abortion provision. The bill never advanced.
"I Didn't Do That": Biden Reportedly Has No Idea He Issued 'Trans Day Of Visibility' Proclamation --Is this an April Fool's Day joke? While Democrats have spent the better part of the last six months insisting that President Biden is a well-oiled galaxy brain behind closed doors, the POTUS clearly can't keep up with his marxist handlers.Point in case, when asked about proclaiming Easter Sunday "trans day of visibility," Biden flat out denied it. "I didn't do that," Biden reportedly said when asked about the proclamation, RealClear Politics' Philip Wegmann reports.When asked about Speaker Johnson's claim that he had, Biden replied, "he's thoroughly uninformed.""I didn’t do that," Biden said when asked about proclaiming Easter Sunday 'trans day of visibility." Asked about Speaker Johnson's claim otherwise, the president replied, "he’s thoroughly uninformed."Except, as we all know, that's complete bullshit."I didn't do that." https://t.co/6ObV6dMn25 pic.twitter.com/A0W0nVsu4G Seems odd you're not able to just look on Twitter/X to see the truth: https://t.co/j9UT0AmFsq
Fox News rejects White House demands to retract Easter egg stories -Fox News is rejecting a call from Biden administration officials to retract coverage of the policy on Easter egg art used during the White House’s annual holiday celebration earlier this week. The White House has throughout the week forcefully pushed back on coverage across conservative media of the Easter Egg Roll, some of which incorrectly claimed the administration instituted a new ban on religious symbols for designs on eggs — a ban has been in place for decades. The administration offered rare praise earlier this week for the conservative website The Daily Caller, which retracted a story that said the Biden White House “banned children from submitting Easter eggs with religious themes” for its Easter art contest Monday. Administration officials have complained to Fox News leadership over stories published on the outlet’s website regarding the eggs, the online news outlet Semafor reported.“We stand by our reporting as it accurately quotes the ‘2024 Call for Youth Art’ flyer which states Easter egg design submissions ‘must not include any questionable content, religious symbols, overtly religious themes,” a Fox spokesperson told The Hill on Thursday. “The story also includes on the record comments from American Egg Board President & CEO Emily Metz who explains that these longstanding guidelines are due to USDA rules.” The Fox story, originally published Friday, notes that “after publication of this article,” Metz told Fox “that for the past 47 years they’ve partnered with the White House.” The dust-up between the White House and Fox News over Easter egg art is just the latest episode in what has been a frosty relationship between the White House and the top-watched cable channel during President Biden’s time in office. Administration officials often push back on claims made by top Fox hosts about the president, while Fox correspondents regularly pepper White House spokespeople with questions about Biden’s mental acuity, policies, and controversies surrounding his son Hunter Biden.
RFK Jr. says he can ‘make an argument’ that Biden is ‘greater threat’ to democracy than Trump -Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., said Monday that President Biden may be a “greater threat to democracy” than former President Trump, citing his own legal battle against the Biden administration over social media censorship.Kennedy said in a CNN interview with Erin Burnett on Monday that he could “make an argument” that Biden is worse, although he acknowledged that Trump is also a threat. “President Biden is a much worse threat to democracy,” he said. “And the reasons for that is President Biden is the first candidate in history, the first president in history that has used the federal agencies to censor political speech.” Kennedy is suing the Biden administration over the administration’s request that his social media accounts be restricted in 2021. He posted misinformation claiming that baseball legend Hank Aaron died from complications of the COVID vaccine, which is not true, according to medical experts. He won an injunction on the case last month, but it was stayed to await a pair of Supreme Court cases ruling on the executive branch’s authority to urge social media censorship brought by GOP attorneys general. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments for two social media cases last month, which claim the Biden White House illegally coerced social media companies to censor accounts because they were spreading misinformation about COVID-19. Kennedy argued that the alleged censorship makes Biden the greatest threat. The comments attacking Biden come as the president and Democrats increase criticism of Kennedy, as concerns rise over his possible impact on the 2024 election. While Kennedy is not in contention to win any states in November, Democratic analysts fear he could take votes away from Biden in key states and lead to a Trump victory. The independent has been averaging close to 10 percent in polling from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, making him the highest polling third-party candidate in a presidential race since businessman Ross Perot in 1992. In a five-way race that includes Jill Stein and Cornel West, Kennedy is at 10 percent in the RealClearPolitics national average.
Just 38% Of Voters Think Biden Lives Through 2nd Term: Poll --Just 38% of voters think President Ron Burgundy Joe Biden would survive a second term in office, according to a new poll by the Daily Mail and J.L. Partners. Biden - who last month was essentially found too old and feeble to prosecute by the special counsel's office investigating his mishandling of classified information, would be 86 at the end of a second term. If he doesn't make it, Kamala Harris would become the left's new vessel to advance policies with the stroke of a pen. To that end, 36% of those polled believe that Harris will be president by the end of the term, while 29% say they "don't know" (because they don't understand how succession works?). When it comes to Trump, 54% are confident that he would be alive after another term in office, with 21% 'not confident.' "Voters think Biden is too old, and they are not changing their mind," said J.L. Partners co-founder James Johnson. "The difficulty for Biden is that views of him are not shaped through events such as his State of the Union address—which people who had seen it felt was fiery—but through consumption of the hundreds of viral social media clips of Biden stumbling and slurring." "That solid perception that he is too old feeds through to a sense he is too weak, and it is a major problem for him going into November," Johnson continued. "Frankly, they do not think he is up to the job—and that makes his re-election a much harder task."
House Democrats introduce bill to rename Miami federal prison after Trump - After House Republicans introduced legislation to rename an airport outside of Washington, D.C., after former President Donald Trump, a group of House Democrats are now proposing a bill to rename a federal prison in Miami after Trump. The legislation, which would rename the Miami Federal Correctional Institution in Florida as the "Donald J. Trump Federal Correctional Institution," was officially filed on Wednesday, April 3. The move comes just days after House Republicans introduced a bill to rename Washington Dulles International Airport after the former president. The renaming efforts come in an election year when many Republicans seek to honor the presumptive nominee, while Democrats work to undercut him.
Trump posts $175M bond in New York fraud case -Former President Trump posted a $175 million bond in his New York civil fraud case Monday evening, staving off the possible seizure of his assets while appealing a state judge’s ruling against him over deceitful business practices. The bond, from the Knight Specialty Insurance Company, automatically bars New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) from collecting the $464 million, plus interest, judgment against Trump, his business and top executives while the appellate process moves forward. Judge Arthur Engoron found Trump, the Trump Organization and top executives — including two of Trump’s adult sons — liable for fraud last year. In February, he ruled that they conspired to alter the former president’s net worth for tax and insurance benefits. In addition to the financial penalty, Trump and the executives were barred from serving in top leadership positions of any New York business for several years — a penalty also paused by the bond. Trump’s $175 million bond followed a state appeals court’s order that enforcement of the full judgment would be paused if Trump and his co-defendants posted the reduced amount. Trump’s lawyers initially told the New York appeals court that, despite “diligent efforts,” it would be “impossible” to secure a full surety bond due to lack of cash on hand. They asked the court to accept a $100 million bond. James’s office urged the appeals court to make Trump pay the full amount before pausing enforcement, suggesting that Trump could post the full amount by seeking several bonds and limiting “any individual surety’s risk.” Trump recently said he has nearly $500 million in cash and told state lawyers last year in depositions he had “substantially in excess of $400 million in cash.” But, on top of a $91 million appeal bond Trump was also recently forced to pay in writer E. Jean Carroll’s defamation case, those figures fall short of what he now owes in the fraud case.
Trump’s $175M bond keeps prized properties from being seized — for now - Former President Trump has secured a $175 million bond in his civil fraud case, keeping at bay the seizure of his most prized properties — for now. The bond — a fraction of the amount Trump and his co-defendants owe after a New York judge found they engaged in deceitful business practices — ensures that New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) can’t make good on the full, multimillion-dollar judgment until after the defense’s appeal of the judge’s ruling plays out. Judge Arthur Engoron found Trump, his company and top executives liable for fraud, ruling after 10 weeks of trial that they conspired to alter the former president’s net worth for tax and insurance benefits. The judge ordered the defendants to pay a penalty of $464 million, plus interest — of which Trump alone owes $454 million. Trump scored a win by staving off enforcement of the multimillion-dollar judgment by paying his bond, but whether Trump’s properties and other assets remain in his control depends on the success of his appeal of his verdict as a whole. “It would be devastating if the appeal was affirmed,” said Gregory Germain, a law professor at Syracuse University. By posting the bond late Monday, Trump bought himself time to mount his appeal without worrying about the staggering penalties against him being enforced.
Trump fraud trial bond drawn into question by New York AG -The $175 million bond in former President Trump’s civil fraud trial is at risk after the New York attorney general’s office questioned the qualifications of the California-based company that posted it. State lawyers wrote in a brief court notice Thursday that they take “exception to the sufficiency of the surety,” secured from Knight Specialty Insurance Company. The notice requires Trump or the insurance company to demonstrate that the company is financially capable of paying the bond amount if Trump loses on appeal and that the bond is appropriately collateralized. “Defendants or (Knight) shall file a motion to justify the surety within ten days of the service of this notice, failing which the Bond shall be without effect, except that the surety shall remain liable on the Bond until a new undertaking is given and allowed,” state lawyers wrote in the filings. Judge Arthur Engoron, who oversaw the fraud trial, ruled earlier this year that Trump, his business and top executives conspired to alter Trump’s net worth for tax and insurance benefits. He ordered them to pay $464 million, plus interest, in addition to several other penalties. Trump was ordered to post a $175 million bond in the case after he told a New York appeals court that it would be “impossible” to secure a bond in the full amount of Engoron’s judgment, namely because sureties refused to accept his real estate as collateral. The bond, from the Knight Specialty Insurance Company, automatically bars New York Attorney General Letitia James (D) from collecting the multimillion-dollar judgment against Trump and pauses other penalties. Engoron scheduled a hearing for April 22 to discuss the matter — which is expected to be one week into Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan. The New York attorney general’s office separately asked Engoron on Thursday to direct the independent monitor he appointed to oversee the Trump Organization’s business dealings — one of the penalties he imposed — to investigate whether the defense “withheld relevant and responsive information” during the trial. The issue came to state lawyers’ attention after ex-Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg pleaded guilty last month to perjury charges linked to the fraud trial. As part of his plea deal, Weisselberg conceded that he lied during depositions ahead of the trial and during his trial testimony. Cited in evidence for the deal was an email exchange between Weisselberg and a Trump Organization employee where the correct size of the former president’s Trump Tower triplex — a key piece of evidence at trial — was confirmed to the ex-CFO. State lawyer Kevin Wallace purported that exchange was never turned over by the defense.
Judge Cannon ruling denies bid to dismiss Trump documents case - A federal judge denied former President Trump’s efforts to toss his Mar-a-Lago documents case Thursday, arguing that the more than 300 classified records recovered from his property could have been considered personal records. The ruling from U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon comes after special counsel Jack Smith urged her to promptly reject Trump’s claims that the Presidential Records Act (PRA) allowed him to deem the national security records his personal property. “The Presidential Records Act does not provide a pre-trial basis to dismiss,” Cannon wrote in the three-page ruling. While the ruling is seemingly a win for Smith, Cannon didn’t rule out Trump’s ability to raise the issue at trial, complicating appeal options for prosecutors. She also used ample space in the short decision to take the special counsel to task over comments made in an earlier filing that urged her to speed along the case. Thursday’s ruling came roughly six weeks after Trump’s effort to toss the case. Legal experts expected his PRA arguments to be quickly dismissed by the court. Smith in court filings had called the idea that Trump could consider such records to be his personal property a “fundamentally flawed legal premise.” “It would be pure fiction to suggest that highly classified documents created by members of the intelligence community and military and presented to the President of the United States during his term in office were ‘purely private,’” his team wrote in a Tuesday filing. “Based on the current record, the PRA should not play any role at trial at all.” Trump is largely being prosecuted under the Espionage Act, which prohibits the willful retention of national defense information. He is also charged with obstruction of justice for seeking to conceal the records from authorities after they demanded their return. Prosecutors had argued the PRA had no bearing on Trump’s ability to retain the documents.
Georgia judge refuses to toss Trump’s charges under First Amendment - The judge overseeing former President Trump’s Georgia election interference case rejected his attempt to toss the charges under the First Amendment on Thursday. Trump and some of his co-defendants had contended their charges must be tossed because their efforts to contest the 2020 election comprised constitutionally protected “core political speech.” “Even core political speech addressing matters of public concern is not impenetrable from prosecution if allegedly used to further criminal activity,” Judge Scott McAfee wrote in the 14-page ruling. McAfee said only a jury can decide the question of whether the speech at issue was carried out with criminal intent. His ruling leaves open the possibility that Trump could still raise a First Amendment defense down the road, once the factual record is more developed. Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) last summer indicted Trump and more than a dozen of his allies on charges of entering a months-long criminal conspiracy to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 victory in Georgia. Trump pleaded not guilty, and a trial date has not yet been set. The DA’s office declined to comment on McAfee’s latest ruling. Trump lawyer Steve Sadow made Trump’s argument to McAfee at a hearing last week, claiming that any speech tied to elections or campaigns have always been found to be at the “zenith of protected speech.” Because of that, the state charges Trump and his co-defendants face — including Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act charges — should never have been brought, he said. “Take out the protected speech, and you don’t have an underlying basis for which to charge him,” Sadow said. Trump and his co-defendants still have various other pending motions seeking to toss their charges without a trial. Those efforts include Trump’s presidential immunity defense, which is likely to be impacted by the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s near-identical defense to his federal election interference indictment brought in Washington, D.C. “President Trump and other defendants respectfully disagree with Judge McAfee’s order and will continue to evaluate their options regarding the First Amendment challenges,” Sadow said in a statement, emphasizing how Trump could again raise some of his claims at a later time.
Judge Rejects Trump's Request To Delay 'Hush Money' Case Based On Presidential Immunity -- New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan on April 3 denied former President Donald Trump’s latest request to delay his upcoming trial, based on a presidential immunity defense that will be heard by the U.S. Supreme Court 10 days after the Manhattan trial begins.“Defendant’s motion is DENIED in its entirety as untimely,” the judge wrote.“The Court declines to consider whether the doctrine of presidential immunity precludes the introduction of evidence of purported official presidential acts in a criminal proceeding.”The defense also argued that the prosecution’s evidence related to President Trump’s official acts should be excluded based on presidential immunity, which the judge rejected.In Manhattan, the district attorney is prosecuting President Trump on 34 counts of falsifying business records, alleging a payment scheme to kill unfavorable news stories to influence the 2016 elections.Trial will begin with jury selection on April 15, and in recent weeks the defense has made several requests to delay the trial, citing among other things a late discovery production of more than 100,000 pages.On March 25, the judge delayed trial until April 15 because of the late evidence produced, but has criticized the defense for “repeatedly” seeking delays in recent orders. The defense has another motion to delay the trial still before the judge, this one arguing that the sheer publicity surrounding the case would prevent President Trump from being able to seat an impartial jury.
Former federal prosecutor says Trump could be jailed if convicted for falsifying business records --Former federal prosecutor Andrew Weissmann said Tuesday that former President Trump could face a jail sentence if he is convicted of falsifying business records in his New York hush money trial, which starts later this month. Trump is facing 34 felony counts over claims that he falsified business records in attempts to cover up hush money payments made to hide an alleged affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels during the closing weeks of the 2016 presidential campaign. “He could be looking at jail,” Weissmann said in a CNN interview with Wolf Blitzer. “This is one where the judge I think is going to be looking at the rule of law to see how other people were treated, other people with a similar criminal background. I think this is an area where Donald Trump’s pretrial behavior is going to be relevant.”Weissmann noted that Trump’s frequent attacks on the judge and his family could come back to bite him. Judge Juan Merchan expanded a gag order in the case Monday, preventing the former president from continuously lashing out on his daughter, Loren Merchan, who is a Democratic strategist.The initial gag order already barred him from making public statements about witnesses, other prosecutors, court staff and their family members “if those statements are made with the intent to materially interfere with” the case.The former prosecutor also predicted that Trump, if found guilty, would likely not get any favors during sentencing because of his conduct. “If you have someone who’s contrite, if you have someone who shares that he’s respectful of the rule of law, that this was an aberration, that is something that the court can take into account,” he said.“But if you think that the defendant actually is running basically as an outlaw and is basically thumbing his nose at the judicial process and shows no sign of remorse and essentially is a recidivist, those are factors that a judge can consider,” Weissmann continued. “And I am sure that a judge like Judge Merchan — if there were to be a conviction — is going to factor all of that in. But it’s just way too soon to say whether it would actually constitute jail time.”The case goes to trial April 15, making it the first time a former president stands trial on criminal charges.
How Michael Cohen became central to Trump’s hush money case - The last time former President Trump and his ex-fixer, Michael Cohen, publicly came face-to-face, their courtroom encounter during a civil business fraud trial ended with Trump storming out in a huff and Cohen swearing his old client would “ultimately be held accountable” for his actions. The two men aren’t rid of each other yet. That’s because Cohen is inextricably tied to Trump’s New York criminal hush money case, set to head to trial later this month. He is expected to serve as a key witness against the former president, testifying about payments made to porn actress Stormy Daniels to conceal her alleged affair with Trump — then a presidential candidate — ahead of the 2016 election. Prosecutors have sought to paint the payment as just one piece of a broader “catch-and-kill” scheme to quash negative gossip about Trump leading up to the election. The payments were made by Cohen, but Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) alleges Trump illegally falsified business records when he reimbursed his onetime personal attorney for the payment to Daniels. Trump faces 34 counts and has pleaded not guilty. The imminent hush money trial sets up another faceoff between Cohen and Trump — but this time with the higher stakes brought by a criminal proceeding, where felony convictions and possible jail time are on the line. Cohen was first introduced to Trump in 2006 by the former president’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., when working at a law firm. But by then, Cohen was already familiar with Trump. Cohen would become one of Trump’s most fiercely loyal aides, eventually described by some as Trump’s personal “pit bull.” The hush money allegations tell the story of three people paid off by Cohen to stay quiet about their salacious accusations against Trump as the 2016 presidential election heated up. The first was a doorman at Trump Tower, Dino Sajudin, who alleged Trump had fathered a child out of wedlock with a building employee. But, according to prosecutors, Sajudin’s story was purchased in late 2015 by the National Enquirer tabloid’s parent company for $30,000 in a deal with Cohen and Trump. Then, in 2016, Cohen arranged for former Playboy model Karen McDougal to be paid $150,000 for her story of a nine-month affair she allegedly began with Trump in 2006. And shortly after, Daniels was paid $130,000 through a shell company Cohen set up to keep quiet over her alleged affair with Trump. Cohen was paid back by Trump, whose company logged the reimbursements as legal expenses, according to prosecutors. Each deal was executed by Cohen, who claims his actions were at the former president’s behest. But his relationship with Trump quickly soured when an investigation into the deals was launched.
Trump social media company sues co-founders, alleging ‘reckless and wasteful’ decisions --Former President Trump’s social media company is suing two of its co-founders, claiming they failed to perform basic duties and delayed the firm’s recent merger with “a series of reckless and wasteful decisions.”The lawsuit from Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social, alleges that Wesley Moss and Andrew Litinsky “failed spectacularly” to set up a corporate leadership structure for the company and nearly derailed its plans to merge with a publicly traded firm. The suit was filed March 24 in Florida state court and was first reported Tuesday by Bloomberg News. Trump owns 57.3 percent of Trump Media through holding 78,750,000 shares of the company, according to Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) records.The lawsuit also names as defendants United Atlantic Ventures (UAV) — an entity run by Moss and Litinsky — and Patrick Orlando, the former CEO of Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC),whose merger with Trump Media was approved March 22, allowing the Truth Social parent company to hit the stock market March 26. Trump Media alleged that Moss and Litinsky harmed the company through its negotiations with Orlando, accusing them of spurring an SEC investigation in 2021 that caused the merger “to be put on ice” for more than 18 months.Moss and Litinsky had previously sued Trump Media in Delaware, claiming the company was illegally attempting to dilute their stake.The dueling lawsuits come amid a challenging start to Truth Social’s new chapter as a public company. Truth Social reported a net loss of $58 million in 2023, according to SEC disclosures filed Monday, and the price of its shares has fallen from a peak near $80 last week to $51.60 as of the end of Tuesday trading. As of Tuesday afternoon, Trump’s stake in Truth Social was worth roughly $4 billion.
Brothers plead guilty to insider trading tied to Trump media company - Two brothers pleaded guilty in federal court Wednesday for their roles in a $22 million insider trading scheme connected to the company that took former President Trump’s social media company public. Florida venture capitalist Michael Shvartsman, 53, and his brother, Gerald, 46, each pleaded guilty to one count of securities fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. U.S. District Judge Lewis Liman set the brothers’ sentencing hearing for July 17. The brothers are accused of illegally trading on nonpublic information in October 2021 that Digital World Acquisition Corp. (DWAC), a shell company, planned to acquire Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of social media network Truth Social. According to the Department of Justice, the brothers obtained confidential information about details of the deal, including the timeline of its announcement, and then bought millions of dollars’ worth of DWAC securities on the open market before the merger with Trump Media went public. “Michael and Gerald Shvartsman admitted in court that they received confidential, inside information about an upcoming merger between DWAC and Trump Media and used that information to make profitable, but illegal, open-market trades,” U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a press release Wednesday from the Department of Justice. “Insider trading is cheating, plain and simple, and today’s convictions should remind anyone who may be tempted to corrupt the integrity of the stock market that it will earn them a ticket to prison,” Williams added. The Shvartsmans were arrested last June, along with a third individual, Bruce Garelick, who had worked at Michael Shvartsman’s Rocket One Capital venture firm. Garelick, who was placed on DWAC’s board of directors, is accused of providing critical information to the brothers about the forthcoming deal in 2021. Garelick is set to go to trial at the end of this month. An attorney for Michael Shvartsman declined to comment. Attorneys for Gerald Shvartsman and Bruce Garelick did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Forbes Billionaires List Shows 'Utterly Unconscionable' Wealth Growth of World's Richest - Forbes on Tuesday released its latest catalog of, as one economic justice campaigner put it, people who should be regulated "out of existence" as the business magazine unveiled its 2024 Billionaires List, featuring near the top a number of U.S. tech billionaires who have aggressively opposed workers' rights movements and fair taxation. The magazine reported that the number of worldwide billionaires grew by 141 in the past year, with 2,781 people holding wealth that exceeds $1 billion. Those people own combined assets of $14.2 trillion, exceeding the gross domestic product of every country in the world except the U.S. and China. Bernard Arnault, head of the LVMH fashion and cosmetics empire in France, currently holds the top slot on the Billionaires List, while Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos are No. 2 and No. 3 on the list.Both Musk and Bezos have garnered international attention in recent years for their companies' illegal anti-union activity, and Tesla andAmazon have both avoided billions of dollars in federal taxes in recent years."It is utterly unconscionable that at a time where masses of the world's population are living in dire poverty, a few individuals are allowed to amass staggering wealth," said Daisy Pearson, campaigns and activism officer at Global Justice Now. "This is only possible through exploitation, and their monopolization of wealth and resources further allows them to amass huge power and influence over decisions that affect our everyday lives. Enough is enough—we should be regulating these barons out of existence.""It is utterly unconscionable that at a time where masses of the world's population are living in dire poverty, a few individuals are allowed to amass staggering wealth." Chase Peterson-Withorn, wealth editor at Forbes, told The Guardian that "the superrich continue to thrive" as people across the planet face higher prices of goods, cost-of-living crises, and the costs associated with increasingly frequent extreme weather events and the climate emergency."A record-breaking 14 centibillionaires [$100 billion] have 12-figure fortunes," Peterson-Whithorn said.Luke Hildyard, executive director of the High Pay Center, told the outlet that the Forbes list, rather than an accounting of those who have earned the most money, "is essentially an annual calculation of how much of the wealth created by the global economy is captured by a tiny caste of oligarchs rather than being used to benefit humanity as a whole."While the global population is "living through incredibly unequal times, lurching from one crisis to the next," added Robert Palmer, executive director of Tax Justice U.K., the richest people in the world amass "extraordinary levels of wealth." "World leaders need to ensure the superrich are paying their fair share, for example through introducing wealth taxes," said Palmer. "This would help provide the resources needed to tackle multiple crises from inequality to climate change."
Leaked Cell Phone Location Data Reveals 200 Mystery Guests On Epstein's "Pedo Island" (maps) Data from nearly 200 mobile devices reveal the exact path taken by visitors to Jeffrey Epstein's notorious 'pedo island,' which was tracked to 80 cities around the world spanning 26 states or territories. The data, obtained by Wired, came from recently bankrupt company Near Intelligence, which allegedly traced the phones which went to and from Little Saint James island, where Epstein allegedly ran an underage sex trafficking network. Near Intelligence, which rebranded itself Azira amid an internal fraud scandal and other controversies, mapped out more than 11,000 coordinates from 166 locations. Some of the locations point to gated communities in Michigan, Florida, as well as homes in Martha's Vineyard and Nantuckett and a nightclub in Miami, according to the report.The coordinates that Near Intelligence collected and left exposed online pinpoint locations to within a few centimeters of space. Visitors were tracked as they moved from the Ritz-Carlton on neighboring St. Thomas Island, for instance, to a specific dock at the American Yacht Harbor—a marina once co-owned by Epstein that hosts an “impressive array” of pleasure boats and mega-yachts. The data pinpointed their movements as they were transported to Epstein’s dock on Little St. James, revealing the exact routes taken to the island. -WiredThe tracking data, which dates back as early as July 2016, also includes routes taken inside Epstein's 'waterfront temple' to toe beaches, pools and cabanas located on the 71-acre island. The surveillance data ends on July 6, 2019 - the day Epstein was arrested (for the second time).Of course, the report excludes "any precise location data that could be used to identify properties or individuals, to protect the privacy of anyone uninvolved in Epstein’s crimes," however Wired suggests they document "the numerous trips of wealthy and influential individuals seemingly undeterred by Epstein’s status as a convicted sex offender." The data also tracks people to Epstein's 8,000-acre New Mexico ranch as well as his waterfront mansion on El Brillo Way in Palm Beach, where Epstein was accused of trafficking and sexually abusing numerous "minor girls" as part of his scheme.As Wired also reports, "Near’s data is notably missing any locations in Europe, where citizens are safeguarded by comprehensive privacy laws."Several ad exchanges, according to The Wall Street Journal, have reportedly terminated arrangements with Near, claiming that its use of their data violated the exchanges’ terms of service.Officially, this data is intended to be used by companies hoping to determine where potential customers work and reside. But in October 2023, the Journal revealed that Near had once provided data to the US military via a maze of obscure marketing companies, cutouts, and conduits to defense contractors. Bankruptcy records reviewed by WIRED show that in April 2023, Near Intelligence signed a yearlong contract with another firm called nContext, a subsidiary of the defense contractor Sierra Nevada. -Wired"The pervasive surveillance machine that has been developed for digital advertising now enables other uses completely unrelated to marketing, including government mass surveillance," according to Vienna-based researcher Wolfie Christl of Cracked Labs.The disgraced financier was mysteriously found dead in his prison cell while awaiting trial for sexually abusing and trafficking young women and girls for years along with his partner in crime, Ghislaine Maxwell.
Northeast Ohio brothers accused of scheming victims out of millions to buy cars, jewelry– Two Northeast Ohio brothers face charges after prosecutors say they tricked victims out of millions of dollars through fraud and money laundering schemes for years. On Thursday, a federal grand jury returned an indictment charging 41-year-old Zubair Al Zubair, ofBratenahl, and his brother, 30-year-old Muzzammil Al Zubair, of Pepper Pike.According to a release from the Department of Justice, the brothers allegedly took part in multiple schemes, including investment fraud and cryptocurrency mining, to get funds and property from their victims.The brothers are accused of using those funds to pay for cars, travel expenses, guns and jewelry.The brothers are accused of lying about being extremely wealthy and having government connections.In one case, according to the release, Zubair Al Zubair allegedly lied about being married to a princess and being a royal family member in the United Arab Emirates.They are accused of lying to make millions of dollars between June 2020 and August 2023.The brothers are charged with one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud, 14 counts of wire fraud, one count of conspiracy to engage in money laundering, four counts of money laundering and one count of theft of government funds.Zubair Al Zubair is also charged with harboring a fugitive.
Northeast Ohio man falls victim to $1.3 million cryptocurrency scam, FBI says - — A Northeast Ohio man lost $1.3 million in a cryptocurrency scam after he used an app that looked nearly identical to a real one.Scammers made the 68-year-old man from Holmesville believe his cryptocurrency investment ballooned to $15 million. When he tried to pull his money out, the group refused, according to court records.FBI agents arrested a man last month on suspicion of being a courier for the scammers. Lin Kai of New York is accused of conspiracy to commit money laundering.U.S. District Magistrate Judge Amanda Knapp ordered Kai released on a $20,000 unsecured bond and bound over his case to a federal grand jury to decide how it will proceed. A message left for Kai’s attorney, Jeffrey Lazarus, was not returned.The 68-year-old man from Holmes County told investigators that the scam began in late August or early September, when someone with the screen name Caitronia Lee sent him several Facebook messages about the man’s interest in hunting.The two struck up a chat about the man’s desire to hunt wild animals in Africa. Lee said she had an investment opportunity that would allow him to do so, according to court records.She directed him to download a cryptocurrency app that at first blush appeared to be the legitimate crypto.com app. The app displayed the name Indoda-x, a name similar to the real Indonesia-based company Indodax.A person pretending to be the app’s service director told him to drop off cash to a courier who would upload it to a cryptocurrency account. The man made his first transaction on Sept. 27 by handing $100,000 to a courier in the parking lot of a Lowe’s hardware store in Mount Vernon, according to court filings.That happened three more times, with the man dropping off as much as $400,000 in each transaction through Dec. 7.On Dec. 8, he checked his account on the scammer’s app and saw his investment ballooned to $15.1 million.The man tried to withdraw the cash, but the service director he spoke with kept giving excuses why he wasn’t allowed to withdraw the money, according to court records. The service director eventually told the man he could withdraw his money if he added $2.4 million more to the account.The man realized he was the victim of a scam and reported it to the Holmes County sheriff’s office.The FBI began investigating and told the man to set up a drop-off of $1.5 million. Agents watched as Lin drove up to the man in the Lowe’s parking lot and took the bag of cash.Agents arrested Kai, who told them he didn’t know whom he worked for and made about $2,000 for each pick-up he made.He told agents that someone would mail him an iPhone and two sim cards, along with directions to where to pick up cash. Kai said he was instructed to destroy the sim card after the pick up and replace it with a new one.
Tether Adds 8,888 BTC Worth $600 Million To Bitcoin Treasury, On-Chain Data Shows -Stablecoin issuer Tether has significantly expanded its Bitcoin holdings, acquiring 8,888 BTC worth around $600 million. This latest purchase was revealed through on-chain data rather than an official announcement. Tether has not publicly disclosed its Bitcoin addresses. However, transactions tracked on the blockchain show 8,888 BTC were recently sent from the crypto exchange Bitfinex to an undisclosed Tether wallet. The recipient address now holds over 75,000 BTC worth $5.3 billion. In May 2023, Tether first revealed it was allocating a portion of its reserves to Bitcoin, with plans to invest up to 15% of quarterly profits. "The decision to invest in bitcoin, the world's first and largest cryptocurrency, is underpinned by its strength and potential as an investment asset," Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Tether, said in the statement when they announced their Bitcoin strategy. While unconfirmed, analysts believe the identified wallet likely belongs to Tether. The amount perfectly matches its pledged buying strategy and claimed holdings in its latest financial reports. Tether has emerged as a major player in Bitcoin markets and its accumulation race. The company is now estimated to be the seventh largest holder of BTC. Its steady purchases, combined with those of institutional investors like MicroStrategy, tighten supply. Critics have raised concerns about Tether's lack of transparency and the potential market risks of its growing bitcoin stash. However, its embrace of Bitcoin also shows the asset's broadening mainstream acceptance. Tether aims to capitalize on Bitcoin's growth while diversifying its reserves away from traditional assets like government debt. Tether is one of the world's largest holders of U.S. Treasuries. This latest $600 million acquisition is unlikely to be Tether's last. As the stablecoin leader continues executing its Bitcoin investment strategy, its influence over Bitcoin markets is only set to increase.
Exploring Bitcoin: Is Bitcoin a Ponzi scheme? - Actor Ben McKenzie is a vocal critic of the crypto industry. He even wrote a book, “Easy Money: Cryptocurrency, Casino Capitalism, and the Golden Age of Fraud,” which dives into the dangers of cryptocurrency. The actor argues that cryptocurrency lacks inherent value and is ripe for manipulation. In 2023, he appeared before the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, calling crypto the “largest Ponzi scheme in history.” McKenzie compared the crypto industry to disgraced financier Bernie Madoff, who defrauded investors out of billions of dollars between the early 1990s and late 2008 when his scheme finally unraveled. Is McKenzie right? Is crypto a Ponzi scheme? Are hapless investors being taken for a ride by shady cryptocurrency operators? Let’s find out. First, we need to know what a Ponzi scheme is. a type of scam where the money from new investors is used to pay off earlier investors, instead of earning profits through legitimate investments. These schemes promise high returns to attract people.They are essentially a house of cards that keeps going as long as there’s a steady flow of new money to cover payouts to earlier investors. However, they inevitably collapse when it becomes difficult to recruit new investors.Named after Charles Ponzi, an Italian businessman who became famous for such a scam in the 1920s, Ponzi schemes are similar to pyramid schemes. Both depend on a constant influx of new investors to keep going, using the new money to pay promised returns to earlier investors. The main differences are that Ponzis center around promising high returns on investments while pyramids offer participants commissions based on the number of people they recruit. They may have underlying products or services, but their focus is usually on recruitment.Neither scheme doesn’t make legitimate profits and is inherently unsustainable, eventually collapsing when it becomes difficult to recruit new investors. Crypto has been likened to both.Going by the definition above, you’d probably feel like there are similarities between crypto and Ponzi schemes. It’s probably why Bitcoin (BTC), the largest digital asset by market capitalization, has been at the center of assertions that it resembles a Ponzi scheme. Critics argue that Bitcoin’s value depends entirely on people continuing to invest in it. They believe that if the rate of investment slows down, Bitcoin’s market might fall apart. This view raises doubts about whether Bitcoin has any practical use beyond being an object of speculation, questioning its effectiveness as a way to buy things or as a reliable way to keep money. In a past blog post, software engineer and crypto critic Stephen Diehl tried to shed light on what he believes is the Bitcoin Ponzi scheme. Diehl deconstructed Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition in his assessment, arguing that it lacks any tangible asset or economic use.He argued that the idea of Bitcoin being a Ponzi scheme is based on the belief that its value comes only from speculation rather than any real usefulness. He thinks that Bitcoin’s worth is kept up by a cycle of speculation, with investors hoping that new people will join and push the prices up.Diehl also highlighted the unsustainable nature of Bitcoin’s value proposition. He argued that the crypto market operates on the basis of irrational sentiments, with investors chasing returns without any fundamental understanding of the coin’s underlying mechanisms.Furthermore, the software engineer criticized the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem, suggesting that other tokens follow a similar pattern of speculative trading and wealth redistribution. He contended that these tokens offer little beyond the promise of quick riches, echoing the age-old allure of “money for nothing out of nothing.”In Diehl’s opinion, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies stray far from traditional investing principles, relying on complex technology and market excitement to keep their high prices. He cautions against the widespread lack of understanding that supports the Bitcoin scam, advising investors to be wary of attractive but baseless promises. Indeed, crypto’s decentralized nature has provided a platform for potential scams, where fake tokens promise high returns only to vanish with investors’ funds. Some infamous examples of crypto Ponzi schemes include OneCoin andBitconnect. In OneCoin alone, investors reportedly lost more than $4 billion, lured by promises of massive returns on a fake cryptocurrency. Bitconnect, on the other hand, which at its peak reached a valuation of $3.5 billion, offered a high-yield lending program, encouraging investors to buy its Bitconnect Coin (BCC) and lock into the program for a set period.However, it turned out that the program was a Ponzi scheme, with early investors getting paid from funds generated by new investors. The program shut down in 2018, with its founder, Satish Kumbhani, indicted by the U.S. government for his role in the scheme.Despite these examples, it’s important to tell the difference between scams and genuine cryptocurrency projects. One compelling argument against claims of Bitcoin being a Ponzi scheme centers on its finite supply. Bitcoin is different because it has a maximum limit of 21 million coins, unlike Ponzi schemes that need continuous new investment. Supporters argue that this limit changes how Bitcoin works, basing its value on scarcity and demand rather than just bringing in new people. Another defense against the Ponzi accusation is Bitcoin’s decentralized network. Operating on a blockchain system, BTC transactions are verified and recorded by a dispersed network of computers or nodes, eliminating the need for centralized control. This starkly contrasts with how Ponzi scheme organizers operate, since they typically exert centralized control over investor funds, manipulating them to sustain the scheme.
Phishing scam thefts on Base are up 1,900% from January — Scam Sniffer -- The near 1,900% surge in phishing scams on Base since January comes amid an explosion in total value locked on the Ethereum layer-2 chain.Ethereum layer 2 Base has seen an 18-fold increase in cryptocurrency funds stolen from phishing scams in March compared to January figures, recent data shows.Approximately $3.35 million was stolen from phishing scammers on Base in March alone, according to blockchain anti-scam platform Scam Sniffer.It marks a 334% month-on-month increase from February’s tally of $773,900 and a massive 1,880% spike compared to January, when Base only lost $169,000 from phishing scams, according to monthly Dune Analytics data compiled by Scam Sniffer.Binance’s BNB Smart Chain observed a similar surge in phishing scams in March, Scam Sniffer noted in an April 2 X post.Approximately $71.5 million was lost to phishing scammers across all chains from 77,529 victims — beating out January and February’s tallies of $58.3 million and $46.8 million, respectively.Scam Sniffer told Cointelegraph it expects even more phishing attacks on Base this month as assets and active users on the chain continues to increase.Scam Sniffer noted that phishing links from fake X accounts remain a “primary tactic,” detecting over 1,500 incidents in March.The rise in Base phishing scams comes amid a recent memecoin craze on the Coinbase-backed chain. It has helped push Base’s total value locked above $3.2 billion — marking a 370% increase so far in 2024, according to L2Beat.Cointelegraph reached out to Scam Sniffer for comment.The surge comes despite crypto hack thefts falling 48% to $187.2 million in March, according to an April 1 X post from blockchain security firm PeckShield.The figure took into account the $98.8 million that was recovered over the month.Almost all of those recoveries came from the $97million Munchibles exploit. Cryptocurrency sleuth ZachXBT was among those onboarded as a custodian to recover the stolen funds.Meanwhile, Curio’s MakerDAO-based smart contract lost $40 million, accordingto updated figures from PeckShield and Prisma Finance fell victim to an $11.6-million hack. The firm is currently negotiating with the hacker on-chain to return those funds.
‘Investor’ behind 200-bitcoin UK injunction tied to billion-dollar scam -A ‘private investor’ who reportedly brought the UK’s first bitcoin freezing injunction has been identified as a Chinese takeaway worker with ties to a $6 billion bitcoin laundering operation.The injunction, which froze 200 bitcoins worth £1 million ($1.2 million), was won by UK law firm Devonshires in 2018 after it pursued legal action on behalf of an unnamed investor claiming to have been scammed. The Financial Times (FT) reports that the unmanned client was Jian Wen, a former takeaway worker convicted in March for laundering bitcoin linked to a $6 billion Chinese fraud operation led by a fugitive named Zhimin Qian. The frozen bitcoin is also reported to have originated from Qian. Wen attempted to purchase a £12.5 million ($15.7 million) property in London and struck a deal with a UK-regulated broker, Exmoor Partners, to convert the bitcoin to help acquire the property. However, the deal fell through when the broker stole her funds, leading Wen to seek help from Devonshires. Wen claimed in her lawsuit to be a successful bitcoin investor who wanted to capitalize on her profits. This claim was later used against her in court to show her dishonesty.Exmoor Partners was one of many middlemen Wen pursued to convert the illicit bitcoin funds. She also discussed a property deal with a Dubai-based estate agent who offered ‘a 100% return on paper.’ Prosecutors claimed the estate agent’s deal was “another money laundering scheme, plain and simple.” Wen has repeatedly claimed she didn’t know where the bitcoin originated from. She is also not accused of any fraud that generated the bitcoin she was tasked with laundering. Exmoor’s director, Anwar Sioufi, was disqualified for misappropriating £2.2 million in customer funds from three separate cases, including Wen’s.
Wyoming community bank winds down fintech program - Another bank with fintech partners has been struck by an enforcement action, this time from the Federal Reserve. It follows recent actions by regulators including the Office of the Comptroller of Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. against financial institutions such as Blue Ridge Bank, Cross River Bank, Lineage Bank, Piermont Bank and Sutton Bank. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City issued a cease-and-desist order to Mode Eleven Bancorp, the holding company for Summit National Bank in Hulett, Wyoming. The order against Mode Eleven is partly related to the $110 million-asset Summit's banking-as-a-service activities. The document states that the bank cannot engage in any "expansionary activities related to the fintech business strategy, including the establishment of any new subsidiaries, business lines, products, programs, services, customers, or program managers in connection with the fintech business strategy, without the prior written approval of the Reserve Bank." Unlike some other banks hit by enforcement actions, Mode Eleven is voluntarily winding down its fintech program entirely, according to the order. Others have offboarded fintech partners or vowed to stay the course while complying with regulatory demands.This action stemmed from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's most recent inspection, in September 2023, which uncovered issues relating to its fintech business strategy, board oversight, capital, liquidity, risk management and more. Beyond limitations on its fintech business, the bank must also form a plan to strengthen board oversight and risk management, including its ability to identify and monitor compliance and fraud risks; construct a proposal to improve earnings and the bank's overall condition; set up a program to enhance liquidity risk management, including diverse sources of funding; make a plan to maintain sufficient capital; and more.These are issues that frequently appear in other regulatory actions, including critiques of institutions' board oversight and compliance management systems.
NYCB asks shareholders to finalize $1 billion lifeline -New York Community Bancorp's brand-new management team is seeking shareholder support for its $1 billion rescue, arguing they have a "clear vision for the future" and becoming a more resilient bank. In documents filed ahead of a shareholder meeting, new CEO Joseph Otting acknowledged it will "take time and consistent results" to regain shareholders' trust. Otting, a former Comptroller of the Currency, stepped into the job April 1. His installment as CEO was part of the $1 billion investment led by former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, whose capital infusion helped restore confidence in New York Community after its stock price dove about 80% in a month.As part of the deal, the $114-billion asset bank agreed to increase the number of shares it can issue to absorb its new investors. Though the capital infusion averted a more dire scenario, it massively dilutes existing shareholders' positions, and some changes require their approval at the upcoming annual meeting. The Long Island-based company's materials did not say when the meeting will take place, though it noted it will be virtual.In a letter to shareholders, Otting wrote that the new team is doing everything it can to mitigate the hits New York Community has taken to its balance sheet recently, driven by stress in itshefty commercial real estate portfolio."We have a dedicated leadership team, a talented workforce, strong liquidity, and a clear vision for the future," Otting wrote. "I believe we will emerge from this challenging period a more resilient, successful bank with a more diverse, balanced business model and a stronger risk management framework."New York Community, however, needs shareholder approval for a final rubber stamp on the deal because of the amount of stock it plans to issue.The $1 billion and additional shares will boost capital levels, the company said, strengthening its position in the case of potential loan losses. While it's unclear what losses New York Community may take going forward, bolstering its protection is a salient advantage, since its troubles were set off when it disclosed an unexpected $552 million loan loss provision in January. Chairman Alessandro "Sandro" DiNello said on a call after the investment was announced that the capital will be sufficient to put the bank back on track."That's why we raised capital, right?" DiNello said. "All the people that I've spoken to in the last month, the first question is always about credit. We want to put to bed the concern that we can't handle whatever that might be." A chunk of the capital raise is happening through preferred shares, though the deal envisions converting them into common shares with shareholders' approval. The bank noted that doing so would increase the type of loss-absorbing cushion regulators like best: common equity. If the conversions occur, the bank's common equity tier 1 capital ratio would rise from 9.1% last year to 10.3%. If shareholders don't sign off on the deal, the company warned of negative impacts to its capital ratios and said it would be saddled with high dividends to preferred shareholders. New York Community also said in its proxy that, if the investment doesn't win approval, the bank "would be severely limited in options should it need to raise capital."
Citi asks judge to toss NY AG's 'imaginative' wire-fraud lawsuit -Citigroup is asking a federal judge to toss a consumer fraud lawsuit that the New York state attorney general filed, saying it's premised on an "imaginative theory" of banks' liabilities to wire fraud victims. Congress long ago ensured banks weren't liable for reimbursing customers who got scammed through wire fraud schemes, Citigroup said in a court filing Tuesday, arguing that exemption remains in place despite the recent rise in online wire fraud."There is no denying that the problem is real," the bank wrote, but the New York state AG's lawsuit "defies longstanding, settled understandings" of banks' liability in those cases. Letitia James, the state's attorney general, sued Citibank in January for inadequate responses to "obvious red flags of identity theft and account takeover" cases. Unwarranted wire frauds occurred thereafter, including one customer who had $40,000 transferred out of her retirement savings. Citi denied her fraud case, according to the AG's lawsuit, which was filed in federal court in New York.The battle over who's liable for wire frauds comes as the industry grapples with "phishing" scams that extract money from customers, either through wire transfers or newer avenues like peer-to-peer payments platforms. Big banks, such as JPMorgan Chase and PNC Financial Services, have also been engaged in lawsuits stemming from fraud losses at businesses.The state AG argued the Electronic Fund Transfer Act — which limits customers' liability from fraudulent card purchases, ATM withdrawals and other online transactions — applies in cases where wire transfers are unauthorized. In those instances, the actual consumers are not involved, the lawsuit argued."It is the scammers, and not the consumers, who purport to electronically authorize Citi to debit consumers' bank accounts," the lawsuit said. But Citi countered the state AG's office is seeking to "artificially separate" steps in the transfers to make banks liable. Over decades' worth of debates and bank practices on the issue, there is "zero evidence" that the state AG's interpretation is correct, the bank wrote.Congress made a "deliberate choice" to exclude consumer wire transfers from the EFTA, and subsequent regulatory interpretations have excluded them, the bank said in its response to the lawsuit. Lawmakers have debated revising that exemption and held a hearing on the issue in 2022, but the bank asserted that, "unless and until Congress acts," the current law stands."The solution to the problem of online wire fraud and scams is not a lawsuit, especially one that improperly seeks to rewrite a federal statute and that would abruptly and dramatically upset how banks have organized their policies and practices for decades," the bank wrote.The state AG's interpretation "would bring about — via litigation, not legislation — a sea change in banking law," the bank added.
Schumer: Banker compensation clawback; cannabis banking, on Senate docket — Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has listed cannabis banking and bank executive clawback bills as bipartisan issues that the Senate could pass in the upcoming weeks and months. In a Dear Colleague letter outlining the Senate work period after lawmakers return to Washington later this month, Schumer flagged several Senate Banking Committee issues, including FEND Off Fentanyl, SAFER Banking and RECOUP. The fentanyl legislation, which grants the Treasury Department more powers to combat the flow of illicit opioids into the United States, previously moved out of the Senate Banking Committee alongside the RECOUP Act, which makes it easier for the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to claw back the compensation of failed bank executives. The two measures are likely to move forward together as they did in the Senate Banking Committee hearing, as strengthening executive clawback legislation has been a major priority for some Senate Banking Democrats, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., while stronger fentanyl laws would be a substantial political win for many Democrats and Republicans alike in many red states ahead of the 2024 elections. "In the weeks and months ahead, we have the opportunity to make progress on bipartisan bills that enhance our national security, advance online safety for kids and promote innovation, expand the Child Tax Credit, work on a path forward on Tik Tok legislation, combat the fentanyl crisis, hold failed bank executives accountable, address rail safety, ensure interest affordability, safeguard cannabis banking, outcompete the Chinese government, lower the cost of prescription drugs like insulin while expanding access to health care, and more," Schumer said in the letter. "There are many important bipartisan issues this congress could address this year, and I hope our Senate Republican colleagues don't allow the ultra-right wing of their party to derail progress on these bipartisan bills." While Schumer's mention of this legislation signals that these issues are still being considered seriously, it's likely that any real action on those bills will fall closer to the "months" timeline rather than weeks. Lawmakers are returning from their Spring recess, but the April work period lasts only a few weeks, and there's no pending must-pass legislation to keep lawmakers in Washington. The Senate Banking Committee sent its executive compensation clawback bill, formed in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank failure, to the full Senate in June. It passed through the committee in a 21-2 vote, with only Sens. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., and Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., voting against the bill. The SAFER Banking Act, a longstanding priority of the bank trade groups in Washington D.C., aims to expand the access of legal marijuana businesses with traditional banking services. It's a revamped version of the SAFE Banking Act, which has passed by the House multiple times in previous Congresses.
Judge rules against Custodia in Fed master account case -Regional Federal Reserve banks have the right to block banks from accessing their financial services, a federal judge in Wyoming ruled last week. U.S. District Court Judge Scott Skavdahl ruled against Custodia Bank in its lawsuit against the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the Federal Reserve Board. The Cheyenne-based digital asset bank had sued the institutions for denying its application for a so-called master account last year.The decision caps a nearly two-year-long legal battle between Custodia and the Fed. The bank initially filed suit in June 2022, hoping to compel a decision on its long-delayed application for a master account, which would have given it access to the Fed's payments networks and other services. It changed tack last February after its application was formally rejected. It has yet to decide whether or not it will appeal the district court decision."Challenging the Fed's strong-arm tactics has always been an uphill battle, but Custodia Bank remains committed to our vision of creating a safe, tech-enabled bank," said Custodia spokesman Nathan Miller in a written statement. "We are reviewing the court's decision and all of our options, including appeal." A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve Board declined to comment on the decision.Skavdahl's decision, which was issued Friday, struck down Custodia's primary argument that, as a legally chartered bank, it was entitled to a master account under the Federal Reserve Act. "The court concludes the statutory language is clear and unambiguous, and the Federal Reserve Act does not support Custodia's position for several reasons," Skavdahl wrote.One of the reasons cited in the decision was an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, which required the Fed to begin publishing a list of master account holders and to disclose which applications were "approved, rejected, pending, or withdrawn." Skavdahl said the inclusion of "rejected" solidified Congress' stance that reserve banks could deny applicants. This interpretation of the amendment drew swift rebuke from some in Washington, including the provision's author, former Sen. Pat Toomey, who called the judge's interpretation "illogical," during an interview with American Banker on Monday."Knowing that they did, in fact, approve some, deny others, sometimes reverse themselves as they did in the case of an applicant from Colorado, I simply wanted them to be required to disclose this," Toomey said. "For someone to come along and say the disclosure means you approve of and condone the practice is so illogical. It is a willful refusal to read the English language as it's written."Toomey, who left Congress at the end of 2022 after choosing not to seek reelection, also noted that Skavdahl's view on this subject has changed materially since last June. After the Fed cited the provision in a motion to dismiss the case, the judge wrote that the amendment "cannot be read as Congress' imprimatur on Federal Reserve Banks holding carte blanche to grant or deny master account applications."
Will the Fed's master account victories stand the test of time? The landscape around accessing the federal payments system has changed. The question is whether the Federal Reserve has instigated this shift or merely responded to it. According to a trio of recent federal court decisions — two of which were handed down last week, while the other was issued last fall — the central bank has broad discretion over which banks may access its financial services. These include the ability to deny or revoke this access over a wide variety of concerns. Some policy and legal experts say the net sum of these decisions amount to a coup for the Fed, giving it carte blanche to decide what firms are qualified to engage in banking. "There's no limit to the Fed's asserted discretion over the global payment system," said Peter Conti-Brown, a Fed historian and professor of legal studies at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business. "This is a major problem." Other scholars and some payments specialists say the rulings merely recognize the authorities the central bank and its regional reserve banks have always had. Jess Cheng, a partner at the law firm Wilson Sonisi and a former attorney for the Federal Reserve Board and Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said the only new development around the administration of so-called master accounts — which grant banks access to the Fed's financial services — is the volume of requests from non-standard applicants. "What has changed is the attention around master accounts because of the types of entities that are now interested in and intending to access the nation's payment rails," Cheng said. "That's what's changed." The two most recent court rulings on master accounts are the U.S. District Court in Wyoming's decision in Custodia v. the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and the Federal Reserve Board, and the U.S. District Court in Idaho's dismissal of a suit brought by PayServices Bank against the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In both cases, the two neobanks were suing their regional reserve banks over master account denials. The decisions were issued within one day of each other, with the ruling against Custodia being cited as a reason for dismissing the PayServices suit. While different in many ways, the two claims argued that, as state-chartered banks, Custodia and PayServices were both entitled to master accounts. This stance is based on a provision of the Monetary Control Act of 1980, which granted access to the Fed's financial services to depository institutions that were not members of the Federal Reserve System.
Barr: Liquidity pressure has eased; agencies eyeing unrealized losses, CRE — Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr Wednesday said liquidity pressures that caused instability in the banking sector in 2023 have largely subsided, but new risks continue to concern federal regulators. In the remarks — delivered to a crowd at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition's Just Economy conference — Barr said regulators are particularly focused on certain banks that have high levels of unrealized losses on securities on their balance sheets as well as those with concentrated investments in commercial real estate. Particular kinds of CRE properties — namely offices — he said, pose more risk than others. "The office commercial real estate sector is under stress more than other parts of the sector and there's heterogeneity around the country," he said. "We're just looking very carefully at banks that have heavy concentrations in office commercial real estate where there are significant expected price declines." Regulators have sounded the alarm over the past year regarding the risks banks face as CRE property values have fallen as many workers now permanently work remotely. As to when the concerns over CRE could subside, Barr said it will likely take years given the varying times at which properties are refinanced and appraised. "Commercial real estate properties refinance at a periodic cycle. Those are not all done in one year or one month; those are being refinanced slowly over time, so over the next two to three years," he said. "We're going to see how properties deal with that refinancing in a higher interest rate environment than the extremely low interest rate environment they were operating in pre-2019." The Fed official also touched on the agency's approach to considering bank mergers, at a time when its fellow bank regulators — the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency — recently updated their own merger consideration policies. Barr said while the Fed is evaluating its guidelines on approving mergers between banks, the central bank is unlikely to update its policies at this time. "I think it's a pretty robust process that follows our existing guidelines in this area," he said. "We are working with the other bank agencies and the Justice Department, to see whether those should be updated. But that's work that we're thinking about on an interagency basis rather than just us doing something." Barr also spoke to interviewer Victoria Guida of Politico about the ongoing legal battle over an overhaul of implementing regulations for the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act — reforms that have been in the works for years under two administrations. Banking trade groups sued the regulators arguing, among other things, that the final rule goes beyond the scope of the statute and violates the Administrative Procedure Act. The opponents of the CRA won a procedural victory in March when a Texas judge issued an injunction against the renewed CRA, postponing enforcement of the rule until the suit is resolved.
Mandatory pledges won't fix discount window stigma: Fed's Bowman - As the Federal Reserve works to destigmatize the use of its discount window, one official says mandating use of the emergency lending facility could create more problems than it solves. In prepared remarks delivered Wednesday morning, Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman questioned whether requiring banks to pledge assets to the discount window and test their borrowing capabilities regularly — moves called for by both current and former regulators in recent months — would actually make banks more willing to use the facility in a pinch."The Federal Reserve cannot entirely eliminate discount window borrowing stigma through regulatory fiat," she said.Bowman delivered her comments during a roundtable discussion of liquidity and regulation hosted by the Committee on Capital Markets, a Washington, D.C.-based research group.The discussion comes as the Fed, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency focus on liquidity requirements as they look to round out their policy response to the failures of three large banks last spring.Two of those banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, both failed to borrow from the Fed amid large deposit outflows as staffers struggled to identify eligible assets to pledge as collateral. The consensus among regulators and policy experts is that a smooth discount window experience would not have helped the banks recover from the rapid loss of funds, but it could have bought them time for more orderly dissolutions.As a result, there has been a growing push in and around Washington to require banks to have enough assets pledged to the discount window to offset deposits that exceed the FDIC's $250,000 insurance cap — the liabilities that are deemed most likely to be pulled out of a bank in a run."While this could be an effective approach," Bowman said, "we do not fully understand the consequences of a new pre-positioning requirement or whether, given the unique nature of SVB's business model and lax supervision, other institutions would have similarly runnable uninsured deposits or if this was an idiosyncratic event."Before instituting such a change, Bowman said, regulators should conduct economic analysis to ensure that such liquidity requirements would not impede banks' day-to-day activities.Bowman also cautioned against taking a "piecemeal" approach to liquidity reform. Instead, she encourages taking a "broad-based" strategy, one that seeks to "validate the use of discount window lending in our regulatory framework." Specifically, she noted that a bank's discount window borrowing capacity should be included in the calculation of its liquidity coverage ratio.
Fed's Bowman: Uncertainty a bigger M&A issue than lack of denials - Federal Reserve Board Gov. Michelle Bowman is not concerned about the lack of denied bank mergers in Washington. In a speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City on Tuesday, Bowman pushed back against the idea that federal regulators have become a "rubber stamp" for bank combinations in recent years, arguing that such a view "ignores the reality of the filing process.""This is an expensive and reputationally risky process that bankers take extremely seriously," she said. "They do not make the decision to file an application lightly."Aside from banks taking steps to ensure their mergers and acquisitions meet regulatory standards, Bowman said denials are further limited because banks often withdraw their proposals when it becomes clear that a combination is not viable. The Fed's most recent report on M&A activity notes that the agency approved 46 applications during the first half of 2023, while 12 were withdrawn."I have observed that applicants may withdraw a filing for a number of reasons, including prolonged uncertainty due to regulatory delays, expiration of contractual deadlines, and issues that are uncovered only during the processing of the application," she said. "For example, the issuance of updated supervisory ratings from recently completed examinations."Bowman's comments come as the Fed, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. prepare to embark on a merger reform campaign this year.Last month, the FDIC kicked off this effort in earnest by proposing new merger guidelines, ones that would make the process more rigorous, with an eye toward safeguarding financial stability and encouraging community engagement.During her remarks, Bowman raised several concerns about the FDIC's proposal, including its suggestion that the agency might issue statements about withdrawn applications in the interest of transparency. "This approach could evolve to become the expectation for all withdrawn applications, and, if so, could put regulators in the untenable position of needing to disclose confidential supervisory information or nonpublic business information about applicants even in the case of a withdrawn application," she said.
CFPB's Rohit Chopra warns of 'creep of consolidation' in bank M&A — Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra said banks' mergers should go beyond meeting regulatory requirements by also proving that they're filling unmet needs in the communities they serve.Chopra touted recent efforts by federal regulators to enhance scrutiny of bank mergers in a speech at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition's conference Wednesday. He added that regulators had lost focus on the best ways to evaluate whether a bank combination would better the lives of community members.The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. proposed Bank Merger Act revisions last month that, if passed, would require banks to provide proof that a merged entity could better serve the community and maintain financial stability. Chopra, along with Michael Hsu, Acting Comptroller of the Currency, sits on the FDIC's board."We see so many individual towns, cities, communities, have dealt with the harms inflicted by the creep of consolidation across the banking sector," Chopra said to the audience of nonprofit leaders, consumer group advocates and bankers. "[The policy revisions] are intended to address all of this and restore a reconnection to service to the community and the public."As Chopra lambasted current "rubber stamp" regulation, one of the biggest, and most contentious, proposed bank acquisitions in 15 years awaits its fate. Capital One filed its official application to acquire Discover Financial Services last month in what would be a $35.5 billion deal, creating a credit card behemoth. Critics of the deal, including the NCRC, fear it would limit options for subprime borrowers and decrease competition. The bank claims the merger would create more competition by bolstering Discover's network against powerhouses Visa and Mastercard. Although the FDIC doesn't have pull in the blockbuster transaction, which needs approval from the Federal Reserve and Hsu's OCC, Chopra made clear in his Wednesday remarks that he doesn't jive with the prospect of the deal crossing the finish line. Whether the banks' plan will satisfy regulatory hurdles is still unknown.
BankThink: Fraud will be harder to stop without changes to open banking rule | American Banker -The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's open banking proposal has the potential to unlock massive benefits for American consumers and jump-start competition in the economy. Establishing strong financial data rights and protections for consumers will ensure they can easily and securely access the financial apps and products that work best for them. Open banking underpins the innovations that enable faster payments, expand access to credit and provide convenience and value for millions of consumers today. The CFPB's proposed rule could reaffirm and expand those benefits for all.At the same time, we are concerned that one provision in the CFPB's open banking proposal would undercut the bureau's aim to promote consumer-centric innovation and competition. The agency is proposing to ban companies from using consumer-permissioned data to develop or improve products, a common practice across most industries. If the CFPB fails to clarify that data can be used for these purposes, the agency risks freezing innovation, curbing access to affordable consumer credit products and sabotaging our most powerful tools to fight fraud. One of the most critical consumer protections is fraud prevention, for both the safety of consumers and the broader financial ecosystem. Fintech companies are already at the forefront of these efforts, leveraging digital solutions to secure accounts, empowering customers with tools to prevent fraud before it happens and working with law enforcement to monitor and report it when it does. However, as fraudsters continue to evolve their practices, our systems must keep pace and allow for the improvement and development of new tools to effectively take on bad actors.Unfortunately, the current open banking proposal would discourage the fintech industry from developing the next generation of fraud prevention tools and deprive consumers of critical financial services. The proposed rule goes beyond any existing privacy regime by specifically banning firms from using data permissioned by the consumer to improve existing products or develop new ones. In doing so, the proposed open banking rule cements a leg up for incumbents, especially the largest banks, whose use of consumer data would remain unencumbered.More broadly, the CFPB's proposed ban on companies' ability to use open banking data to improve and develop products would have far-reaching impacts on consumers. It would halt many companies' ability to test products and prevent consumers from getting personalized financial advice. The proposed ban would also jeopardize the ability to train and improve cash flow-based underwriting, which the CFPB has recognized stands to improve pricing and expand access to credit, especially for the millions of Americans who are credit invisible. Academics and economists haveeven pointed out that they would be blocked from using anonymized or de-identified open banking data to conduct critical research to inform the public good.
BankThink CFPB must rethink its 'death by a thousand cuts' regulatory strategy - Since the moment the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau opened its doors over a decade ago, there have been criticisms about its lack of accountability and oversight, its largely unchecked structure and its inclination toward playing politics. The latest, most prominent source of these concerns has been the bureau's efforts to cap prices and eliminate fees it doesn't like through a crusade against so-called "junk fees." Similarly, the CFPB has consistently targeted industries it doesn't like: companies offering short-term, small-dollar loans have faced heightened scrutiny. Unable by law to cap the industry's fees, the CFPB recently seems to have abandoned standard, transparent, time-intensive rulemaking. Instead, it has pivoted to indirect regulation by investigation and enforcement.Such efforts illustrate the continuing necessity of CFPB reform — to bring essential sunlight, objectivity and a core focus on consumers' financial needs and protections through a fairly regulated financial services marketplace. As a stark example of indirect regulation by investigation, over the last year and a half, multiple companies in our industry — including members of INFiN, the national association for state-licensed operators — have been unexplained targets of the CFPB's investigations, receiving extensive and aggressive civil investigative demands, or CIDs, that threaten the future of their business and the vitality of our industry.CIDs — effectively, subpoenas for information as part of a CFPB investigation into potential violations of consumer financial law — are a valid investigatory tool in the bureau's toolbox. As such, they require a clear statement of purpose outlining the nature of the alleged violation under investigation, including the related legal provision. In the case of our industry, the CIDs served on multiple companies feature an identical, vague statement of purpose, along with far-reaching, burdensome information requests. The CIDs require companies to turn over virtually every document and communication around their consumer lending business, comprehensive data about every loan made, email records, organizational charts, audited financial statements, personnel files for many current and former employees and other sensitive business information, sometimes reaching back as far as ten years.Further, multiple companies in our industry have been targeted with back-to-back CIDs, fully complying with one CID without any indication of specific legal issues or violations, only to receive a second, even more sweeping demand. In the case of one member company — a small, woman-owned regional operator — the CFPB had declared the company did not need to perform ongoing reporting following an exam. Yet, they were subsequently served a second CID with no explanation, less than three months after meeting with the CFPB about the first CID. When the company petitioned the CFPB to amend or set aside the second CID, they outlined not only their positive exam history but the financial toll the CIDs are taking on their business. Complying with the second CID as written is not merely "disrupt[ing] or seriously hinder[ing] normal operations of a business" — the stated legal standard for modifying a CID — but likely could put the company out of business altogether.
Transfer of CFPB $8 late fee rule lawsuit stayed pending appeal The 5th Circuit Court of Appeals has stayed the transfer of a lawsuit challenging the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's $8 late fee rule until late Tuesday pending the outcome of a hearing on whether the transfer of the case to D.C. District Court effectively denies the plaintiffs' motion to postpone the effective date of the rule. A judge in the District Court for the Northern District of Texas Friday ordered the suit, U.S. Chamber of Commerce v. CFPB, to be moved to the D.C. District Court, finding that plaintiffs had not demonstrated a compelling reason why the suit should be filed in Texas rather than in D.C., where the CFPB and most of the plaintiffs are headquartered. But the plaintiffs — including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, American Bankers Association and Consumer Bankers Association — filed a motion with the 5th Circuit asking it to decide whether the case's transfer amounted to a denial of a pending motion for an injunction against the rule, which is slated to go into effect on May 14. "Plaintiffs respectfully request that this Court maintain its existing briefing schedule regarding Plaintiffs' emergency motion for an injunction pending appeal and administrative stay regarding the effective denial of their motion for a preliminary injunction," the plaintiffs' motion reads. "Plaintiffs respectfully ask for a ruling before the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia dockets the case."
BankThink: As CFO of a multibillion-dollar firm, I couldn't get a checking account | American Banker --As a chief financial officer, I signed off on annual budgets over $1 billion. I have a doctorate and an MBA, a clean criminal record, minimal debt and credit scores above 800. But I cannot open a checking account with a dozen major U.S. banks.I immigrated to the U.S. from Iran at age 18 and became a U.S. citizen in the late 1990s. I graduated from the University of California, Berkeley; earned a doctorate in chemical engineering from Princeton; and took a consulting job at McKinsey & Company in New York. My life was turned upside down on January 7, 2010, at 6 a.m. A dozen Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents stormed into my apartment and arrested me. I was wrongfully charged with violating U.S. sanctions on Iran. My family sent money from my mother's divorce settlement from Iran to America. Prosecutors alleged that this transaction violated the U.S. sanctions on Iran — even though family money of this kind is exempt from these sanctions. I was indicted and held in maximum- and high-security prisons, only to be released after 22 months of incarceration when the case was overturned on appeal. Even though the primary sanctions charges against me were overturned on appeal, secondary charges of making false statements remained on my record. Fourteen members of Congress — including the late Rep. John Lewis and Sen. Diane Feinstein — supported my application for a presidential pardon. I was granted a full and unconditional presidential pardon in 2021, finally fully clearing my record.In the years following my release I began to put my life back together.From 2017 to 2023, I held critical operations, finance and strategy roles culminating in my position as chief financial officer and chief strategy officer at Tubi, a leading ad-supported video-on-demand streaming and technology company. In this capacity I oversaw many aspects of business operations and finance including annual budgets, accounting, compliance, audit and the company's banking relationship. Despite that professional success, in my personal capacity, I have been and still am unable to open bank accounts or credit cards with a dozen notable financial institutions including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Capital One. I cannot manage a retirement account or my own investments with Fidelity, E*Trade or TD Ameritrade. They all refuse me as a customer with a lifetime ban. The rationale is often obfuscated, and the closure letters are often templates without details. As CFO for Tubi, I signed off on $1 billion in annual transactions for the company, processed through Bank of America. Ironically, Bank of America is among the banks that will not have me as an individual customer, even for something as basic as a checking account.In a society that is becoming increasingly cashless, being unable to open and maintain a simple transaction account becomes more untenable every day. I am fortunate and have advantages that most formerly incarcerated people and immigrants do not. If it's this draconian for me, can we rightfully claim we're a society offering second chances and merit-based opportunities? As a society we should guarantee a bank account — and access to the financial system — as a right to every American. There are up to 2 million inmates in U.S. prisons. Some 70 million Americans have some form of criminal record. Those with criminal records are only part of a larger underbanked group including immigrants and minorities.
BankThink Critics have misread the CBO's report on the Federal Home Loan banks | American Banker -Reading the recent BankThink piece entitled, "CBO called out the Federal Home Loan banks. It's now up to Congress," left me wondering whether I had read the same CBO report that was referred to in the piece.While the report centers on the role of the Home Loan banks, several key points contained in the report are worth reiterating.First, CBO rightly asserts that the Home Loan banks "are cooperatives owned by their member institutions" and that they are "privately owned and operated corporations." This is important because it means that the Home Loan banks are not government agencies, and their employees are not government employees. Assertions to the contrary are not only flagrantly false, but deceptive.Second, while the CBO report estimates that the Home Loan banks will be subsidized to the tune of $7.3 billion in 2024, the report also very clearly states that "Congress does not appropriate funds for [the Home Loan banks]." So, the logical question then is if the Home Loan banks are indeed subsidized, how does this subsidy work and how is it paid?There are those who would argue that it is taxpayers that foot this bill. However, a careful read of the CBO report leads to the accurate conclusion that it is investors in Federal Home Loan Bank System debt that pay it in the form of a lower return on their capital. Otherwise stated, private investors using private funds willingly accept lower returns on Home Loan bank debt relative to potentially higher yields from other securities due to the inherent safety of Home Loan bank debt. As the CBO report makes clear, the safety of Home Loan bank debt stems from the fact that the loans the Home Loan banks make to members are over-collateralized, the Home Loan banks retain a perfected security interest in all collateral pledged and that the Home Loan banks are jointly and severally liable for the debt of the entire system. The CBO report also notes that the status of the Home Loan banks as a government-sponsored enterprise "creates the perception among investors" of an implied guarantee. The important takeaway here is that it is investors in Home Loan bank securities that assume the guarantee — the government is not implying a guarantee. In fact, the disclosures on Home Loan bank-issued securities clearly state the following: "THE SECURITIES ARE NOT OBLIGATIONS OF THE UNITED STATES AND ARE NOT GUARANTEED BY THE UNITED STATES." [Emphasis in original]. In other words, the willingness of investors to accept a lower rate of return on Home Loan bank debt reflects a market-driven choice predicated on the confidence they place in the Home Loan Bank System's robustness. Aside from the federal government's initial infusion of capital to establish the system in 1932, Congress has never appropriated any direct government financial assistance to the Home Loan banks. Private investors pay to subsidize the Home Loan Bank System, not the government or taxpayers.The Home Loan banks are indeed exempt from state and local taxes, as the CBO report notes, amounting to roughly $1 billion in foregone tax payments according to CBO. But Home Loan banks, like credit unions and S-Corp banks, are pass-through entities and what the CBO report does not contemplate is that the dividends the Home Loan banks distribute to their members as a return on their capital investment in these cooperatives are taxed as income.Regarding the benefits that accrue from this arrangement, here again a careful read of the CBO report provides an answer. Most significantly, the report concludes that the discount on the cost of Home Loan Bank System debt passes through to members and then on to those members' customers. This passage from the CBO report is instructive:"Lower financing costs on FHLBs' debt are passed along through lower rates on advances than members would receive when borrowing in private debt markets. In turn, competition leads members to offer lower rates to borrowers."
New FDIC economic inclusion plan melds inclusion and community development — The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. released a revised economic inclusion strategic plan Thursday, aiming to advance people's personal financial stability by encouraging lending in underserved communities. The agency's updated blueprint, which comes a decade after the first draft was released, emphasizes four opportunity areas: Creating banking relationships, saving and building credit, developing small business and affordable housing growth and encouraging bank activities in underserved communities. In what FDIC Chair Martin Gruenberg called "the biggest change" to the economic inclusion strategy, the agency will press banks to step up community development initiatives, such as affordable housing, small-business loans and investments in financial institutions that work with minorities, women and low-income populations. "While the FDIC has long sought to support banks' community development efforts, the explicit connection to its economic inclusion work is new and entirely appropriate," Gruenberg said at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition's annual conference Thursday. "Stated plainly, the plan recognizes that banks are unlikely to succeed in their efforts to build trusted relationships with households if they are otherwise neglecting to make investments that strengthen the communities in which those households live and work." Jennifer Tescher, president and CEO of Financial Health Network, said the focus on specific outcomes — such as building savings, credit and wealth — is an important amendment to the economic inclusion plan. While rates of unbanked and underbanked households decreased from 28% in 2011 to 18% in 2021, per FDIC data, Tescher said financial security takes more than a bank account. "What's most notable about this new plan is the focus on outcomes," Tescher said. "I'm really pleased that the FDIC has focused this plan around these four key areas that are critical for achieving financial well-being." This new plan comes as the FDIC, the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency are embroiled in a legal battle while they attempt to roll out updated Community Reinvestment Act rules. The CRA was first passed in 1977 with the goal of deterring discriminatory bank practices by requiring banks to make investments in low- and moderate-income areas where branches operated. On Thursday, Gruenberg said the FDIC was "firmly committed to the support" of the new CRA, which he added will help ensure consumers can access needed services affordably, and encourage bank investment in community development financial institutions, minority depository institutions and women's depository institutions. As part of its revised economic inclusion plan, the FDIC will monitor its progress in driving community development through banks' investment and participation in Community Reinvestment Act-related activities.
Texas judge blocks updated CRA rules — A federal judge in Texas issued an injunction against bank regulators' new Community Reinvestment Act rules, blocking the rule's enforcement until legal issues about the updated regulation can be resolved. The move by the Texas judge represents a win for bank trade groups, who sued their prudential regulators — the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Federal Reserve — after those regulators finalized their reforms to the CRA in October. The lawsuit claims that the regulators overstepped their statutory authority in doing so. "While we strongly support the goals of CRA, the final rules exceeded the banking agencies' regulatory authority and created disincentives for banks to lend in low- and moderate-income communities that need access to credit the most," the American Bankers Association, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Independent Community Bankers of America, Texas Bankers Association, Independent Bankers Association of Texas, Amarillo Chamber of Commerce and Longview Chamber of Commerce said in a statement following the judge's injunction. "We look forward to litigating this matter to a final judgment." The lawsuit is part of a substantial uptick in legal challenges to regulators' rules during the Biden administration. Lobbying groups representing the banking industry have become more litigious, drawing criticism from community organizations who have been arguing for reforms to the CRA for years.
Insurance trends are deciding where Americans will live as planet heats - Climate change and generations of U.S. housing and development policy are making homes, neighborhoods and entire municipalities riskier to insure, undermining the ability of Americans to live where they choose. The current face of this crisis is a nationwide withdrawal by the insurance industry from regions threatened by wildfires and hurricanes, particularly along the Gulf Coast and California. While there are other factors at play, this retreat is largely driven by the collision of climate change with long-term federal decisions to incentivize ever more expensive homes in riskier areas. But insurance is just one manifestation of a larger problem, experts told The Hill, a canary in the coal mine offering a warning of more significant dangers rising out of sight. And in a country whose economy is among the most unequal in the rich West, the cost of that danger falls increasingly on those least able to bear it. A record number of billion-plus dollar weather disasters hit the U.S. in 2023, with 28 such incidents costing nearly $100 billion collectively, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The previous record was set in 2020 at 22 disasters with 10-digit tabs.The scale of these disasters, however, is only partly a result of climate change. In a world where America’s coastlines were dominated by wetlands and mangrove swamps, its conifer forests were burned regularly in low-intensity blazes and its housing stock was built with an eye toward resilience, these numbers would be far lower.But state, federal and local governments have for decades incentivized both large-scale suppression of low-intensity fires and booming high-dollar coastal real estate, often on barrier islands. Those trends have left more people — and more insured home value — in the way of worsening fires, floods and storms. The home insurance industry has lost money every year for the past five, according to a March report by the insurance rating site AM Best, part of a broader crisis in the industry.In the broader category of personal insurance, the industry suffered three consecutive years of losses in excess of $20 billion. “That’s why you see companies pulling back and retrenching — because they’re suffering enormous losses,” Robert Gordon, a senior vice president at the American Property and Casualty Insurance Association, told The Hill. When insurance companies face rising risk, they have a few options: They can raise deductibles, raise rates, cut the riskiest homeowners from their rolls, or exit a state entirely.Increasingly, they are doing all of the above — with the state exits being the most dramatic.Last month, State Farm announced it would not renew insurance policies for 72,000 California houses and apartments, about 2 percent of its total policies in California. That announcement followed the company’s May 2023 decision to stop writing new policies in the state, citing “rapidly growing catastrophe exposure,” a move that was echoed by Allstate and American International Group. To the insurance industry, California is a particularly difficult market: a state where a wave of high-dollar development in increasingly fire-prone hinterlands has led to rapidly increasing risks, and therefore insurance costs. And state policies intended to protect consumers mean insurance companies often must wait up to a year to raise rates, and another year for them to take effect. But the problem goes far beyond California. State Farm’s March retreat followed the Februarywithdrawal of Texas-based American National from nine extreme weather-prone states, including California, Colorado, Louisiana and the Dakotas. In Louisiana, more than 20 insurance companies have gone insolvent or left the state since 2020. Florida has lost more than 30, and there are signs that skyrocketing premiums areleading homeowners to depart the state. And while no insurers have yet left Texas, premiums are soaring in the wake of disasters. In these cases, too, the industry points to other compounding factors — in particular, Florida’s and Louisiana’s unusually high rate of litigation over insurance claims. “We are marching steadily towards an uninsurable future in a number of places across the United States,” Dave Jones, former California insurance commission director, said last year.That’s a worrying development, because when an area is uninsurable, “it becomes uninhabitable,” Anne Perrault, senior finance policy council at Public Citizen, told The Hill.Taxpayers foot the bill for the increasingly common disaster supplementals, which are made more expensive by the continuing trend of higher-dollar houses in ever riskier areas.In states such as Texas, California, Louisiana and Florida, homeowners who can’t find insurance elsewhere can turn to state-run ‘insurers of last resort’, which offer guaranteed — but more expensive — coverage.And because those agencies can’t say no to homeowners, the cost of insuring the riskiest properties is effectively socialized, with the cost of insuring a second home on the shifting sand of a barrier island borne by those inland. For the banks and the federal agencies that regulate them, the downstream risk is that a crash in insurance value will lead to a wave of mortgage delinquencies and declines in home prices. It’s also difficult for federal officials to gauge the collective risk the U.S. faces, because insurances companies are regulated by the states. While the Treasury Department is beginning the process of putting together a nationwide picture, it has faced resistance from the states — despite its rising risk, Louisiana officials told The Hill they are sitting the call out — and from companies themselves.
ICE Mortgage Monitor: The Impact of "Golden-Handcuffs" on Mortgage Payments Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Trading Up to a 25% More Expensive Home Would More Than Double the Average Mortgage Holder’s Payment
- From 2000 to 2022, upgrading to a 25% more expensive home would have required the average homeowner to increase their principal and interest payment by roughly 40%, or about $400 per month
- Today, that same trade-up buyer’s payment would increase by an average of $1,384 per month, a 103% jump that highlights the real-world pressures keeping current mortgage holders “locked in” to their homes
- Simply giving up their current rate to move across the street to an equivalently priced home in today’s market would result in a nearly 40% increase in P&I – roughly as much as the historical trade-up cost
- Homeowners who took out mortgages when rates were near record lows in 2020 and 2021 face an even steeper “move across the street” cost, with such a lateral move requiring a 60% higher monthly payment
- Trading up for these borrowers – who account for two out of every five active mortgages – would take a 132% increase in monthly P&I
- The trade-up cost – and the associated lock-in effect – varies significantly across geographies, from a 72% payment increase on the low end in Buffalo to more than 140% in Los Angeles and San Jose
- Inventory remains constricted, but improved, as 65% of major U.S. markets have more homes available for sale today than at this time last year
- Lower interest rates in late Q4 and early Q1 led to home sales in February hitting their highest adjusted level since March 2023
- The February ICE Home Price Index showed strength in the market, with adjusted home prices rising by +0.43%, up from +0.33% in January, which is equivalent to a +5.3% seasonally adjusted annualized rate
There are many headwinds facing the would-be seller in today’s market, making their existing mortgage payment particularly attractive in comparison. While this has been the case for some time, according to Andy Walden, Vice President of Enterprise Research Strategy, the ICE Research and Analysis team sought to quantify this "lock-in effect" beyond simply identifying the number of borrowers within or below a given interest rate band."After American mortgage holders secured some of the lowest first lien rates ever and benefited from record home price growth on top of that, we wanted to quantify just how locked-in folks truly are and what kind of rate declines would be needed to shake some of that inventory loose," said Walden. "Leveraging the ICE Home Price Index and our loan level mortgage data, we looked at how much it would cost the average homeowner with a mortgage to trade up to a 25% more expensive home in today's market – or to simply move across the street, for that matter, into a home identical to their own. The results were bracing, to say the least.“That average homeowner’s mortgage payment would more than double, to gain just 25% in property value – hardly an entertaining proposition. That said, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more vivid illustration of the lock-in effect that’s kept for sale inventory in a hole for the last few years. Simply giving up their current rate to move across the street to an equivalently priced home in today’s market would result in a nearly 40% increase in P&I, an average of $500 more per month. Lower rates would ease the calculation for many and make moves more reasonable. But the net result continues to be too few homes for too many buyers. Until that fundamental mismatch is addressed, simple supply and demand will continue to press on both inventory and affordability.” Here is a graph on delinquencies from ICE. Overall delinquencies increased in February and are below the pre-pandemic levels.
- • The population of borrowers who fell one payment behind rose 6.5% from January’s 8-month low, but remains close to the 12-month average
- • Fewer borrowers sank further into delinquency in February, with the roll rate from 30 to 60 days past due falling -6.7% to a six-month low, and rolls from 30 to 60 days late down -4.9% to their lowest point in four months
- • Cures from early-stage delinquency pulled back from last month’s high, though late-stage cures rose 14.4% to a six-month peak
Here is a graph of the early delinquency rates for Conventional, FHA and VA loans. Conventional loans continue to perform well, but there is concern about FHA and VA loans.
- • Early-payment delinquencies remain elevated among recent originations, particularly FHA and VA loan products
- • Such delinquencies have edged upward in recent years but remain well below pre-Great Financial Crisis levels, while FHA and conventional mortgages have both improved modestly year over year, with VA loans holding roughly flat
- • Though early-payment delinquencies on conventional mortgages remain low, performance of late-2023 FHA and VA loans, originated when rates neared 8% and debt-to-income ratios reached series highs, remain worth watching
- • Overall, performance remains historically strong, as the large volume of loans originated in 2020/2021 locked in fixed mortgage payments at low rates that have served to counter inflationary headwinds for these borrowers
- • In total, 39% of all currently active loans were originated in those two years and have delinquency rates 36% below the market average, exerting a strong downward pull on the overall market
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. Black Knight reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 5.7% year-over-year in February, down from 5.8% YoY in January.
What mortgage borrowers complained to CFPB about last year -Consumers submitted nearly 28,000 complaints about mortgage firms to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau last year, largely regarding trouble with the payment process. Just over half of the submissions, or 11,400 complaints, related to trouble during the payment process. The report highlighted concerns around loss mitigation, in which borrowers said servicers delayed reviewing and implementing loan modifications and deferrals. Many of the issues occurred after servicing transfers, according to the CFPB."Consumers also reported receiving confusing or conflicting communications about modification and deferral options, and about payment amounts and timing," the report said. Common borrower complaints included rude servicer representatives, or being unable to reach someone at all. Servicers in response said they often needed further documentation to review loss mitigation applications, and apologized to customers for delays and inaccurate information. Other customer gripes ranged from late fees, negative credit reporting and foreclosure threats. Some of those grievances stemmed from foreclosure starts on loans which became delinquent in March 2020, just before the passage of federal pandemic aid. According to the CFPB, companies usually responded that those customers' payments were not made on time, or they couldn't provide those borrowers with affordable payment plans.Other problems arose from the Homeowners Assistance Fund. Consumers told the CFPB that mortgage firms didn't provide requested information to state HAF programs on time, or apply HAF payments on schedule. The overwhelming majority of grievances were closed with explanations, the regulator said in its2023 Consumer Response Annual Report. Of the approximately 27,900 complaints it received, the CFPB sent 84% of those to firms; referred 10% to other regulators; and found 6% to be non-actionable. Mortgage players closed 92% of complaints via explanation and 2% with monetary relief. By comparison, in 2022 3% of complaints led to cash compensation and in 2021 and 2020 4% of issues were resolved in the same manner. The new CFPB report found that in 2023, 3% of issues raised were handled with non-monetary relief, defined by the CFPB as actions such as correcting inaccurate information and stopping unwanted calls from debt collectors. The report did not specify how much money mortgage companies paid to consumers for claims.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 0.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 29, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 13 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, but that did little to ignite overall mortgage application activity. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined slightly to 6.91 percent, while the 15-year fixed rate decreased to its lowest level in two months at 6.35 percent,” . “Elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh down on home buying. Purchase applications were unchanged overall, although FHA purchases did pick up slightly over the week. Refinance applications decreased to fall 5 percent below last year’s pace.”...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.91 percent from 6.93 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 13% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flatlined since then.
Mortgage Rates Sharply Higher to Start The Month -March ended with a streak of some of the flattest day-over-day changes in mortgage rates on record. It was all but certain that the new week/month would bring a change to that sideways trend, but the reality has immediate and abrupt.Right at the start of domestic trading hours, bonds began to lose ground. This means that traders were selling and yields were rising. Higher yields in bonds equate with higher mortgage rates, all other things being equal.Frustratingly, there were no obvious explanations for the initial push toward higher rates this morning. Some market watchers may have pointed to inflation data that came out last Friday when the market was closed, but if that was the motivation, it wasn't obvious to the billions of dollars in trading that had taken place before yields began to rise.What we can confirm is that this morning's economic data made things worse for rates. Both S&P and ISM released their manufacturing indices for March. Both were higher than expected and both mentioned higher prices.Prices are critical at the moment because inflation is keeping rates elevated. If inflation refuses to resume the downward trajectory that was in place through the end of 2023, rates won't have a compelling reason to rally. The net effect of this morning's bond market rout was an increase of more than an eighth of a percent for the average mortgage lender on top tier 30yr fixed loans. From here, the market will be tuned into other important economic releases set for the coming days. Friday's jobs report is the most significant among these.
Housing April 1st Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 26.0% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week. Inventory bottomed in mid-February this year, as opposed to mid-April in 2023, and inventory is now up 4.7% from the February bottom. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of March 29th, inventory was at 517 thousand (7-day average), compared to 513 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up more than double from the record low for the same week in 2022, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 26.0% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 23.9%), and down 37.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 38.2%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
More than 1 in 3 February home purchases were made with cash: Report More than one-third of homes were purchased with cash in February as mortgage rates remain high, according to a new report from the real estate company Redfin. The rate of all-cash purchases — defined as home purchases where the deed does not include mortgage loan information — is within striking distance of the record high of 38 percent in 2013. While mortgage rates have fallen slightly from their 8 percent peak in October, they are still significantly elevated compared to all-time low rates achieved during the pandemic. With home prices also up 6.6 percent in February from a year earlier, home buyers are increasingly taking out larger down payments to reduce their monthly mortgage payment. The median down payment for a house jumped to $55,640 in February, up 24.1 percent from February 2023, according to Redfin. But most buyers can’t afford all-cash home purchases or a larger down payment, particularly first-time home buyers, the experts at Redfin noted. “High mortgage rates are widening the wealth gap between people of different races, generations and income levels,” said Chen Zhao, economics research lead at Redfin. “They’ve added fuel to the fire lit by surging home prices during the pandemic, creating a reality where in many places, wealthy Americans are the only ones who can afford to buy homes,” Zhao added. “Meanwhile, people who are priced out of homeownership are missing out on a major wealth building opportunity, which could have financial implications for their children and even their children’s children.”
Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 5.9% Year-over-year --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 5.9% Year-over-year -A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 5.9% in February, down from up 6.2% YoY in January. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ... As of February, 17 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peak were in West Virginia (-3.1%), Idaho (-2.8%), North Dakota (-2.4%), Oregon (-1.8%), and Nevada (-1.5%).For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city.
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year --Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year -Brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. Most of these measures are through February 2024, except CoreLogic is through January and Apartment List is through March 2024. The CoreLogic measure is up 2.6% YoY in January, down from 2.8% in December, and down from a peak of 13.9% in April 2022.The Zillow measure is up 3.6% YoY in February, mostly unchanged from 3.6% YoY in January, and down from a peak of 16.1% YoY in February 2022. The ApartmentList measure is down 0.8% YoY as of March, mostly unchanged from -0.9% in February, and down from a peak of 17.8% YoY November 2021.....The Rent of primary residence was up 5.8% YoY in February down from up 6.1% YoY in January. The Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER) was up 6.0% YoY in February down from 6.2% YoY in January. The YoY change in OER and in PCE housing have peaked, but will stay elevated for some time, even though asking rent growth has mostly flattened YoY.
Construction Spending Decreased 0.3% in February From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during February 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,091.5 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised January estimate of $2,096.9 billion. The February figure is 10.7 percent above the February 2023 estimate of $1,889.6 billion Private spending was unchanged and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,617.1 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised January estimate of $1,616.8 billion. ... In February, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $474.4 billion, 1.2 percent below the revised January estimate of $480.1 billion.This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 7.1% below the recent peak in 2022. Non-residential (blue) spending is 1.1% below the peak two months ago. Public construction spending is 1.9% below the peak two months ago. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 6.3%. Non-residential spending is up 12.6% year-over-year. Public spending is up 16.8% year-over-year. This was below consensus expectations for 0.5% increase in spending, and total construction spending for the previous two months was revised down. This is probably just the start of weakness for private non-residential construction.
SBA forges ahead with Funding Circle license despite pushback -The Small Business Administration has given final approval to Funding Circle's application to join the agency's $35 billion 7(a) loan guarantee program. The move comes despite strong opposition from groups representing existing 7(a) lenders, as well as senior lawmakers from both parties in Washington. Funding Circle US received word of SBA's decision, which came after about four months of review, on Monday, Ryan Metcalf, head of public affairs for the company, said Wednesday. The company hopes to begin making 7(a) loans this month, Metcalf added. SBA did not respond to a request for comment by deadline. Existing 7(a) lenders have been vocal in their opposition to Funding Circle US, along with SBA's wider policy aim of boosting the number of nondepository small-business lending companies allowed to participate in 7(a). In April 2023, SBA finalized a rule ending a 40-year moratorium that had capped the number of SBLCs at 14. The agency later agreed to grant three new SBLC licenses, to Arkansas Capital Corp, McKinley Alaska Growth Capital and Funding Circle US Arkansas Capital and McKinley Alaska are both relatively small community development financial institutions. Funding Circle US, by contrast, is a nationwide online lender that has originated more than 57,000 small-business loans totaling $4.5 billion since 2013, when its parent, London-based Funding Circle, established a subsidiary here. Groups representing legacy 7(a) lenders, whose numbers are dominated by banks and credit unions, have voiced concerns that opening the door to Funding Circle and other fintechs might set the stage for a surge of fraudulent loans, similar to what the Paycheck Protection Program experienced. "Funding Circle is losing money and has stated it doesn't have the capital" to participate in 7(a), Anthony Wilkinson, president of the National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders said in a recent interview. "The SBA is still moving forward to give it an SBLC License. It should be running away from Funding Circle." The doubts surrounding Funding Circle US multiplied last month, triggered by a seemingly straightforward decision made in London by the company's senior management team. Despite the fact the U.S.-based subsidiary was, at that time, sitting on the cusp of receiving one of the highly-sought-after SBLC licenses, Funding Circle signaled its intent to shift gears and funnel more capital to projects in Britain. Commenting on the company's 2023 financial results, released March 7, CEO Lisa Jacobs said Funding Circle wanted to reinforce the success of its FlexiPay and U.K. loans business lines. "We believe that a simpler, more profitable combined U.K. business will deliver greater shareholder value with improved profitability and cash generation," Jacobs said on a conference call with investors. Funding Circle reported losing about $5 million in 2023 before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. Almost as an afterthought, Jacobs added Funding Circle had received "expressions of interest for the U.S. business" and entered into discussions with third parties. "We're limited in terms of what we can say and we will make further comments in due course," Jacobs said on the conference call. That terse admission has roiled SBA circles. Indeed, lawmakers were quick to raise the specter of Funding Circle US, along with a freshly minted small-business lending company license, going up for grabs. In an April 2 letter to SBA Administrator Isabel Casillas Guzman, Senate Small Business Committee Chair Jeanne Shaheen, D-New Hampshire, called the SBA's plan to grant Funding Circle an SBLC license into question. "Awarding a license to a company that is preemptively seeking to offload its operation even before receiving its full approval or making an SBA loan would be unprecedented and, in my view, extremely unwise," Shaheen wrote. Shaheen's letter comes two weeks after a contentious hearing, during which Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, the Small Business Committee's ranking minority member, leveled sharp criticism at both SBA and Funding Circle. "I do think the Funding Circle issue is a bit shady," Ernst said. "The SBA, as far as we know, has never granted a license to a company that intends to immediately turn around and sell the license."
Office Tower Vacancy Rate Hits Record High As Zombie Buildings Litter Skylines of Cities -- There are more dormant office towers in the United States than at any point since 1979, according to a new report from Moody's Analytics, which began tracking office leasing vacancies that year. The rising supply of office space is due to a combination of surging remote and hybrid work that forces companies to reduce corporate footprints. Also, companies are exiting imploding progressive cities and high-taxed blue states for red ones while downsizing space. In the report, office tower vacancies rose to a record 19.8%, up from 19.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Graphs: Bloomberg. Even with the increase, there is an eerily calm across the commercial real estate sector. This comes as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiking cycle is higher for longer, indicating that the pain train is nearing (perhaps after the presidential election). "The office stress isn't quite done yet," Thomas LaSalvia, Moody's head of commercial real estate economics and one of the authors of the report, told Bloomberg in an interview. He noted recent positive economic indicators stave off a "perfect storm in the office sector." "There are spots of light and there are spots of extreme darkness," LaSalvia said, adding, "This is part of a longer-term evolution where we are seeing obsolete buildings in obsolete neighborhoods."The high office vacancy rate continues to be terrible news for landlords and developers eager to fill their buildings, and the Fed's hiking cycle has made refinancing very challenging. Last month, Goldman's Vinay Viswanathan penned a note explaining how "office mortgages are living on borrowed time." Viswanathan said there have been no major fireworks in CRE tower debt because the debt is being "extended and modified rather than refinanced," which "mitigates a default wave and a sharp pick-up in losses on CRE loan portfolios."
Las Vegas February 2024: Visitor Traffic Up 9.5% YoY; Convention Traffic Up 15% --From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: January 2024 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics - With an extra day from the leap year, a notable YoY increase in available rooms, a strong group segment and of course, a Super Bowl, the destination saw a robust YoY increase in visitors and record‐breaking room rates. Visitation for the month saw a 9.5% increase to reach 3.37M visitors, or roughly 300,000 more visitors than last February. With the recurring NAHB Int'l Builders' Show and Kitchen & Bath Industry Show, along with the rotational returns of National Auto Dealers Association (24k attendees) and Int’l Roofing Expo (13k attendees) and several mid‐sized shows at properties across the destination, estimated convention attendance reached nearly 765k, +15.3% vs. last Feb. Despite the larger room inventory vs. last year, overall hotel occupancy for the month surpassed last February by 1.7 pts to reach 83.9% as Weekend occupancy reached 90.3%, up 1.0 pts YoY, and Midweek occupancy came in at 81%, up 2.2 pts YoY. Driven by dramatically strong rates during Super Bowl, ADR for the month exceeded $248 while RevPAR hit a record $208, +43.5% YoY The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (Black), 2020 (dark blue), 2021 (light blue), 2022 (light orange), 2023 (dark orange) and 2024 (red). Visitor traffic was up 9.5% compared to last February. Visitor traffic was up 5.8% compared to the same month in 2019. The second graph shows convention traffic. Convention traffic was up 15.3% compared to February 2023, and up 2.2% compared to February 2019. Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021. Leap year and the Super Bowl boosted traffic in February.
Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.5 million SAAR in March; Up 4% YoY by Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for February: Affordability Front-and-Center in March U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Gain (pay site). Combined market share of non-luxury small cars and small and midsize CUVs increased to 42.1% in March from same-month-2023’s 36.5%. Thanks to that boost, total deliveries in March increased year-over-year despite a decline in sales of all pickups, SUVs, vans, midsize cars and luxury-priced cars. The trend was largely true over the entire first quarter, as deliveries of more affordable vehicles led the three-month period to a 5.1% year-over-year gain.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for March (red). Sales in March (15.49 million SAAR) were down 2.0% from February, and up 3.8% from March 2023.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Vehicle sales are usually a transmission mechanism for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy, although far behind housing. This time vehicle sales were more suppressed by supply chain issues and are up year-over-year.Sales in March were below the consensus forecast.
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in March --This morning, the BEA released their estimate of vehicle sales for March. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 478 thousand SAAR in March, down from 499 thousand in February, and down 6.1% from 509 thousand SAAR in March 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Heavy truck sales are solid.
Ford Retrenches EV Plan - Ford is delaying some of its EV product launches in favor of delivering hybrid versions of all its Ford-branded vehicles by 2030 as interest grows in hybrid vehicles as a prologue to a complete shift to electric vehicles. With the pace of EV sales slowing a bit, Ford backs away from its ambitious schedule of EV production and product launches, instead pledging to offer a hybrid version of all its Ford-branded vehicles by 2030. The announcement comes right after a positive first-quarter sales report by the Dearborn, MI, automaker. Ford’s electric-vehicle sales increased by 86% and hybrid sales rose 42% versus a year ago. “As the No.2 EV brand in the U.S. for the past two years, we are committed to scaling a profitable EV business, using capital wisely and bringing to market the right gas, hybrid and fully electric vehicles at the right time,” says Jim Farley, Ford president and CEO. “Our breakthrough, next-generation EVs will be new from the ground up and fully software-enabled, with ever-improving digital experiences and a multitude of potential services.” The strategy pivot is resulting in a later expected launch year for all-electric 3-row SUVs that are planned for the company’s Oakville, ON, Canada plant – 2027, compared with a previous target of 2025. Ford still plans to introduce a new all-electric truck from its new EV production complex in Tennessee, Blue Oval City, in 2026. Work also continues at Ford’s Avon Lake, OH, plant to produce electric commercial vehicles for its Ford Pro unit. That new vehicle line is expected to hit the market by “mid-decade,” giving Ford some flexibility on ramping up production to meet demand and not get too far ahead of demand for commercial EVs. Farley previously has said the company also shifted its EV strategy in late 2023 to quickly develop a lower-cost EV platform to deliver EVs at lower prices than it had planned earlier.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in March; Down 14.7% Year-over-year -From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in March Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in March compared to February. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.1, a decline of 14.7% from a year ago. The decline in the index was driven by the seasonal adjustment, resulting in a 0.4% month-over-month decrease. The non-adjusted price in March increased by 3.1% compared to February, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.4% year over year.This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.The Manheim index suggests used car prices declined in March (seasonally adjusted) and were down 14.7% year-over-year (YoY).
ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.3% in March --The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.3% in March, up from 47.8% in February. The employment index was at 47.4%, up from 45.9% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 51.4%, up from 49.2%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.3% March 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in March after contracting for 16 consecutive months, “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.3 percent in March, up 2.5 percentage points from the 47.8 percent recorded in February. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 47th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved back into expansion territory at 51.4 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the 49.2 percent recorded in February. The March reading of the Production Index (54.6 percent) is 6.2 percentage points higher than February’s figure of 48.4 percent. The Prices Index registered 55.8 percent, up 3.3 percentage points compared to the reading of 52.5 percent in February. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.3 percent, the same reading as in February. The Employment Index registered 47.4 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from February’s figure of 45.9 percent. This suggests manufacturing expanded slightly in March. This was above the consensus forecast.
Disinflation Narrative Dies As Manufacturing PMIs Show Prices Soaring Most In 20 Months Treasury yields are exploding higher and rate-cuts odds tumbling after the resurgent 'price' data in today's PMIs. The odds of a June rate-cut has dropped to just 50% (from 75% last week)... And amid the illiqidity of European market holidays, UST yields are exploding higher... Graphs: Bloomberg This is also putting pressure on stocks (for a change)... As we detailed earlier, 'Hard' data has been soaring since the start of the year - as 'soft' data collapses - so all eyes are on this morning's Manufacturing PMIs (surveys) for an end to that trend. But, of course, there is normally something for everyone in this data as last month saw ISM's data tumble while S&P Global's soared. Both were expected to improve marginally in March final data today. ISM's Manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, rising from 47.8 to 50.3, better than the 48.4 expected (breaking a 15-month streak below 50). But, S&P Global's US Manufacturing PMI disappointed, falling from its 'flash' print of 52.5 to 51.9 - also down from the final print of 52.2 in February. Graphs: Bloomberg However, a common theme from both surveys was that of soaring prices!! S&P Global noted that higher oil and raw material costs, plus increased transportation rates, reportedly added to cost burdens at the end of the first quarter... and the impact of rising labor costs was mentioned as a factor pushing up selling prices at a number of manufacturers. Employment remains in contraction for the sixth straight month and Prices Paid surged to its highest since July 2022... Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The final reading of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI signaled a further encouraging improvement in business conditions in March, adding to signs that the US economy looks to have expanded at a solid pace again in the first quarter. “A key development in recent months has been the broadening-out of the upturn from services to manufacturing, with reviving demand for goods driving the fastest increase in factory production since May 2022. Jobs growth has also picked up as firms boost capacity to meet demand. Rising capex spending has likewise buoyed orders for machinery and equipment, in a further sign of firms gaining confidence in the outlook. But the 'improvement' comes at a cost: “The upturn is, however, being accompanied by some strengthening of pricing power. Average selling prices charged by producers rose at the fastest rate for 11 months in March as factories passed higher costs on to customers, with the rate of inflation running well above the average recorded prior to the pandemic. Most notable was an especially steep rise in prices charged for consumer goods, which rose at a pace not seen for 16 months, underscoring the likely bumpy path in bringing inflation down to the Fed's 2% target.” So slower growth and much faster inflation - that does not sound like a recipe for rate-cuts... in fact quite the opposite.
ISM® Services Index decreases to 51.4% in March - The ISM® Services index was at 51.4%, down from 52.6% last month. The employment index increased to 48.5%, from 48.0%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 51.4% March 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the 15th consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, The sector has grown in 45 of the last 46 months, with the lone contraction in December 2022.“In March, the Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than February’s reading of 52.6 percent. The composite index indicated growth in March for the 15th consecutive month after a reading of 49 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 57.4 percent in March, which is 0.2 percentage point higher than the 57.2 percent recorded in February. The New Orders Index expanded in March for the 15th consecutive month after contracting in December 2022 for the first time since May 2020; the figure of 54.4 percent is 1.7 percentage points lower than the February reading of 56.1 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the third time in four months with a reading of 48.5 percent, a 0.5-percentage point increase compared to the 48 percent recorded in February. The PMI was below expectations.
BLS: Job Openings Little Changed at 8.8 million in February -From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary- The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of February, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000.Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.Jobs openings were little changed in February at 8.76 million from 8.75 million in January. The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year. Quits were down 12% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
ADP: Private Employment Increased 184,000 in March -From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 184,000 Jobs in March; Annual Pay was Up 5.1% Private sector employment increased by 184,000 jobs in March and annual pay was up 5.1 percent year-over-year, according to the March ADP® National Employment Report produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). ...“March was surprising not just for the pay gains, but the sectors that recorded them. The three biggest increases for job-changers were in construction, financial services, and manufacturing,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services.” This was above the consensus forecast of 155,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 200 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in March.
March Employment Report: 303 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 27,000, from +229,000 to +256,000, and the change for February was revised down by 5,000, from +275,000 to +270,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 22,000 higher than previously reported.The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 303 thousand in March. Private payrolls increased by 232 thousand, and public payrolls increased 71 thousand. Payrolls for January and February were revised up 22 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In March, the year-over-year change was 2.93 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was increased to 62.7% in March, from 62.5% in February. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.3% from 60.1% (blue line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later. The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased to 3.8% in March from 3.9% in February. This was well above consensus expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined.
March jobs report: almost uniformly positive, making a “soft landing” the default 2024 scenario - In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:
- Whether there is further deceleration in jobs gains compared with the last 6 month average, vs. a “soft landing” stabilization.
- Whether the unemployment rate is neutral or decreasing; or whether there is further weakness. The recent excellent reports in initial claims suggested this rate would decline. After a contra-trend jump last month, this month the unemployment rate did decline.
- Based on the leading relationship of the quits rate to average hourly earnings, whether YoY wage growth would continue to decline slightly. It did continue to decline to a new post-pandemic low - but still above 4%.
In other words, all three focus points were as expected or better. Here’s my in depth synopsis.
- 303,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 232,000. Government jobs increased by 71,000.
- January was revised upward, while February was revised downward, by 27,000 and -5,000 respectively, for a net of 22,000. The pattern from nearly every month in the past year, has been a steady drumbeat of downward revisions, so this mixed result is a slight positive.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed a 498,000 increase. Still, on a YoY basis, in this series only 642,000 jobs, or 0.4%, have been gained. This is tied with last month for the lowest since the pandemic lockdowns.
- The U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 3.8%, down from last month’s 2 year high.
- The U6 underemployment rate was unchanged at 7.3%, 0.8% above its low of December 2022.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declined -229,000 to 5.443 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million set 12 months ago.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, increased 0.1 hours to 40.7 hours, but is still down -0.8 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs were unchanged.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs rose by 900.
- Construction jobs increased by a strong 39,000.
- Truck driving increased 5,100.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 5,500 to a new post-pandemic high.
- Goods jobs as a whole rose 42,000 to another new expansion high. These should decline before any recession occurs.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, fell by another 1,300, and are down about -420,000 since their peak in March 2022.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer declined -137,000 to 2,189,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.07, or +0.2%, to $29.79, a YoY gain of +4.2%. This is the lowest YoY gain since June 2021, vs. its post-pandemic peak of 7.0% YoY in March 2022.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers increased 0.5%. This metric is now up 1.7% YoY.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.7%, and is now up a very strong 6.1% YoY. This is 2.9% above the most recent YoY inflation rate. This is powerful evidence that average working families continue to see gains in “real” spending money.
- Leisure and hospitality jobs, which were the most hard-hit during the pandemic, rose another 49,000. Both leisure and hospitality and its sub sector of food and drink establishment jobs, which gained 28,300 this month, have now completely recovered from their steep pandemic downturn. As a result, I will henceforward discontinue this comparison.
- Professional and business employment increased another meager 7,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series had generally been declining since last May, but in the last 4 months has resumed its increase.
- The employment population ratio rose 0.2% to 60.3%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate also rose 0.2% to 62.7%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.
SUMMARY: This month’s report hit on nearly all cylinders, with both the Household and Establishment Surveys participating. About the only negative was the continued poor YoY performance in the Household Survey, which number is close to recessionary (but it’s the only one), as well as the punk professional and service sector gains, and the continued slide in temporary help services.By contrast, almost all of the leading metrics in the survey were positive, or in one case neutral. Aggregate payrolls also increased sharply again, and both the E/P ratio and the LFPR participated in the advances. Manufacturing at least held steady, and construction continues its surprising strong gains in both the residential and nonresidential sub-sectors. The unemployment rate declined as anticipated by the recent jobless claims reports. The three month average of job gains was the highest in the past 12 months, firmly halting the recent decelerating trend. Even average hourly wages for nonsupervisory personnel, which continued to decelerate YoY, remain high nominally, and probably were close to unchanged for the month.In sum, this month’s report was very much consistent with a “soft landing” scenario, which must be regarded as the default outcome at this point.
Comments on March Employment Report -- The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%.Leisure and hospitality gained 49 thousand jobs in March and is now above pre-pandemic levels.Construction employment increased 39 thousand and is now 596 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment was unchanged and is now 176 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.Earlier: March Employment Report: 303 thousand Jobs, 3.8% Unemployment Rate Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in March to 83.4% from 83.5% in February, and the 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at to 80.7% from 80.7% the previous month.Both are above pre-pandemic levels.The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in March. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 million from 4.36 million in February. This is at pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.3% from 7.3% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.According to the BLS, there are 1.246 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.203 million the previous month.This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low of 1.050 million. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. Through March 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 39 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).Summary: The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio both increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.8%. Another strong report.
Strong US labor market underpins economy in first quarter (Reuters) - U.S. job growth blew past expectations in March and wages increased at a steady clip, suggesting the economy ended the first quarter on solid ground and potentially delaying anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday also showed the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% last month from 3.9% in February. The decline in the jobless rate reflected a sharp rebound in household employment, which more than absorbed the 469,000 people who joined the labor force. The unemployment rate has remained below 4% for 26 straight months, the longest such stretch since the late 1960s. The U.S. economy is outshining its global peers even though the Fed has raised rates by 525 basis points since March 2022 to dampen inflation. The labor market is benefiting from a rise in immigration over the past year. Though the strong hiring did not alter expectations that the U.S. central bank would start easing rates this year given increased labor supply, financial markets are doubtful of the three cuts envisaged by policymakers. "While the favorable supply-side developments are consistent with (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell's benign view of the outlook, the apparent absence of any cracks developing on the demand side should lessen the urgency to ease policy, and we are pushing back our call for the first Fed cut from June to July," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan in New York. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. The economy added 22,000 more jobs than previously estimated in January and February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 new jobs in March, with estimates ranging from 150,000 to 250,000. Job gains in the first quarter averaged 276,000 per month compared to the October-December quarter's average of 212,000. Economists say most businesses locked in lower borrowing costs prior to the U.S. central bank's tightening cycle, providing some insulation from higher borrowing costs and allowing them to keep their workers. Industries sensitive to interest rates, like construction, are also boosting hiring as financial conditions ease.
New York’s home health aides wage hunger strike to abolish 24-hour shiftsAbout 24 home health aides in New York City recently waged a hunger strike to demand that the City Council vote on a bill to abolish 24-hour shifts. The hunger strike reflects not only how intolerable the shifts are, but also how desperate the workers have become. Such shifts are physically and emotionally punishing, and workers are paid for only 13 of the 24 hours that they work. Many of the home health aides have been demanding action from the City Council for almost 10 years. A bill to eliminate 24-hour shifts for home health aides was introduced in the City Council about a year and a half ago, but Council Speaker Adrienne Adams never brought it to the floor for a vote. While claiming to support workers’ demands for better job conditions, Adams argues that because home health care is reimbursed by Medicaid, the issue must be decided by the state, not the city. During the five-day hunger strike, the workers rallied outside City Hall. Home health aide Guihua Song addressed one of the rallies through an interpreter. “It’s not that we don’t cherish our health. We know that hunger striking harms the body and causes great damage to us, but we have no choice,” she said, according to The Villager. “Working 24 hours a day for a long time, our bodies have been tortured, broken down and full of aches and pains. We cannot care for our children and families.” The strike ended on March 25 without any action from the City Council. A banner outside the encampment of home health aides on hunger strike in New York City [Photo: Rohith Jayaram via Facebook] Home health aides care for elderly clients and those with disability or chronic illnesses. The workers help their clients perform daily activities such as washing, dressing, preparing meals and attending medical appointments. The job often requires lifting patients without assistance. Many home health aides, who are predominantly women and immigrants, develop work-related injuries or deformities. State law provides for eight unpaid hours of sleep and three hours for meals. But in practice, breaks are not enforced, and the workers are often unable to rest or eat. Some have reported suffering insomnia and deteriorating eyesight. Home health aides may be assigned as many as five 24-hour shifts in a row. In 2022, Councilmember Christopher Marte introduced a bill that would limit the shifts that home care employers can assign to 12 hours within a 24-hour period. Hence, two workers could each be assigned a 12-hour shift to provide 24-hour care for a client. Many home health aides are members of 1199SEIU, which initially opposed Marte’s bill. The union changed its position when the bill’s 50-hour limit on the home-care workweek was increased to 56 hours. Moreover, officials of 1199SEIU did not attend a rally that the hunger strikers held in front of City Hall. These acts demonstrate that the union bureaucracy is not interested in protecting workers’ rights. It is more concerned about maintaining its cozy and mutually beneficial relationships with the healthcare companies. During the initial hearing on the bill, the chairs of the state Senate and Assembly Health Committees argued that to avoid potential gaps in coverage, revised regulations related to home health aides must be passed in the state government along with changes in Medicaid funding. But the state legislature, which is dominated by Democrats, has not pursued the issue since Marte introduced his bill.
Video shows California deputies fatally shooting abducted teen as she surrenders (AP) — A teenage girl who had been kidnapped by her father was following a sheriff’s deputy’s instructions and appeared to be surrendering when other deputies fatally shot her during a gun battle on a Southern California highway, according to recently released video and audio. Savannah Graziano, 15, was shot and killed as she ran toward San Bernardino County sheriff’s deputies amid a hail of gunfire on Sept. 27, 2022. Her father, 45-year-old Anthony Graziano, was also fatally shot. The San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department released the audio and video clips, including a heavily produced and narrated 15-minute video, on Friday in response to public records requests made by The Associated Press and other media outlets. The deputies did not have body-worn cameras, but video footage was recorded by a sheriff’s helicopter and witness dashboard cameras. Before Savannah and her father were shot, deputies pursued Graziano’s pickup truck for some 70 miles (110 kilometers), including along Highway 15. A helicopter crew following the chase reported shots fired from the driver’s side. Other shots were fired from the passenger’s side, according to a deputy and a passing motorist. It is unclear who was shooting from the pickup truck. The truck and deputies’ vehicles came to a stop on the desert interstate east of Los Angeles in Hesperia, about 35 miles (55 kilometers) north of Fontana, where her father had shot and killed her mother — his estranged wife — a day earlier. Savannah Graziano was just steps from safety when she was killed, the video shows. A deputy, taking cover behind a sheriff’s SUV, repeatedly shouts to her, “Passenger, get out!” and “Come to me, come to me!” Wearing tactical gear and a helmet, the teenager gets out of the pickup truck from the passenger side and runs toward the deputy, briefly crouching to the ground as he continues to give her commands. But as she rises from her crouch and starts toward the deputy, others from a higher elevation open fire. The deputy screams: “Stop! Stop shooting her! He’s in the car! Stop!” The deputy’s shouts were not broadcast over the radio, the sheriff’s department said, but the audio was captured by his belt recorder. A deputy in the helicopter can be heard saying “Oh, no” over the radio after the teen was shot. For months, officials would not say whether it was her father or the deputies who killed Savannah Graziano. In the new video, the narrator says the Grazianos “were struck by deputy rounds and died of their injuries.” The agency has not released autopsy reports for the teenager, her father or her mother, Tracy Martinez, and it has not named the deputies involved. A spokesperson for the agency did respond to a request for comment Tuesday.
Migrant children held in fetid open-air encampments near Southern California-Mexico border -- The Biden administration’s brutal crackdown on undocumented immigrants has resulted in tens of thousands of asylum seekers languishing in outdoor holding areas in the Southern California-Mexico border region while waiting to be apprehended and taken to detention centers. The holding areas, which are essentially outdoor encampments, have no sewerage systems, running water and basic supplies of any kind. Immigration detention centers are themselves strained to capacity as asylum claims, when not denied outright, often take an interminably long time to process, if at all. According to a recent article in the New York Times, recent heavy rains have led to asylum seekers to seek shelter in dumpsters and overflowing porta-potties. Volunteers visiting the migrants have recorded deep lacerations, broken bones, fevers, diarrhea, vomiting and seizures. One medical volunteer called the situation “apocalyptic.” The broken bones and lacerations are often the result of attempts to scale border walls and pass through concertina wire. On March 2, a mass casualty event was recorded at the border wall at the US-Mexico border in San Diego, California, as 10 people fell from the top of the 30-foot-high wall. Moreover, long treks through deserts on both sides of the border often lead to severe dehydration and associated maladies. “From a public health standpoint, there are communicable diseases and outdoor exposures that would strike anyone down, much less this medically vulnerable population,” Dr. Theresa Cheng, a San Francisco-based emergency room physician providing services at the border area, told the Times. Young migrants and even infants are particular susceptible to disease and malnutrition, with volunteers reporting migrants eating leaves after trying to survive for five days or longer without food. Mothers had also reportedly stopped producing breast milk for their infants due to trauma, with no formula provided by border patrol officers as a substitute. Last Friday, a Federal District Court judge in California questioned the Biden administration’s claim that it holds no responsibility for the housing and feeding of migrant children at two of the encampments at the border fence in San Diego and at another remote mountainous region east of the city. The legal challenge brought before the court by immigrant rights groups argues that as the children are in government custody, they must be given access to toilets, food, drinking water and emergency medical care through the provisions of a 1997 ruling known as the Flores agreement. The agreement also specifies that migrant children must be turned over within 72 hours to the US Health and Human Services Department, which in turn releases the minors to family in the United States while a judge considers asylum. The argument raised by lawyers for the administration and US Customs and Border Patrol is that the migrants are not officially in US custody while outside of an official detention center and thus were not entitled to receive food and medical care. “Minors in these areas—close to the California-Mexico border—have not been arrested or apprehended by C.B.P. and are not in the custody of C.B.P.” When US District Judge Dolly Gee challenged the Justice Department’s (DOJ) custody claims by asking if the migrants were “free to leave” the area, DOJ attorney Fizza Batool responded, “As long as they do not proceed further into the United States.”
Electric school buses help tribes bridge the energy transition - — School buses are lifelines in this tiny reservation town near the Canadian border, where the youngest members of the Red Lake Band of Chippewa spend hours bouncing over winding, unpaved roads to attend daily classes.Come August, Red Lake’s K-12 students will begin boarding a very different kind of bus.While the new vehicles will look the same — bright yellow with the stenciled black district identifier — they won’t come with the combustion engines and tailpipes that pump out heat-trapping gases and damage young lungs.Red Lake Schools is among the first tribal districts to receive electric-powered buses courtesy of the Biden administration’s $5 billion Clean School Bus Program. The program, rolled out last year, is a centerpiece of the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law and a down payment on the administration’s promise to spend $13.7 billion to improve the lives of Native Americans.Tribal leaders and school district officials say the buses will give the reservation’s 1,550 students — who are members of the Ojibwe Tribe — a leg up in the global energy transformation that has been largely devoid of native voices.“We believe underserved kids deserve every opportunity to participate in activities that can open a horizon of new careers for them,” Tim Lutz, the Red Lake School District superintendent, said on a visit last fall, as a winter chill blew off the lake. “Ultimately, we think this fits with the direction we’re going on sustainability, and the fact that we want to be attuned to clean energy and the natural environment.”The anticipated arrival of the two battery-powered Blue Bird school buses — along with several hundred thousand dollars to build out the power grid and charging infrastructure — comes as the 10,000-member tribe faces erratic climate conditions in one of the fastest-warming places in the Lower 48 states.Willie Larson, the district’s business manager, said the adoption of electric vehicles is in line with the tribe’s fundamental beliefs about environmental stewardship — and offers a solution to the many problems that come with gas-fueled buses.“We’re moving away from the current buses because, No. 1, they’re so expensive to replace and repair. You also have issues with all of the exhaust coming off the [engines],” Larson said. “In addition to the emissions themselves on the routes, you have to make sure that stuff isn’t getting sucked back indoors when they’re running outside the schools, creating air quality problems for our students.”
St. Paul and Minneapolis Public Schools reveal plans to cut hundreds of jobs and gut student programs - Minnesota educators at St. Paul Public Schools (SPPS) and Minneapolis Public Schools (MPS) confront massive budget cuts for the next school year, threatening the jobs and livelihoods of educators, as well as vital student programs and activities. MPS administrators say the district is facing a $110 million budget deficit, and cuts are being planned across all schools. SPPS is reporting a $107 million budget deficit, with officials floating plans to slash afterschool programs, custodial food service and support staff, among others. District officials in both cities have made clear they are planning virtually unprecedented cuts. St. Paul Superintendent Joe Gothard told a school board meeting Wednesday, “While we have made significant progress toward a balanced budget and should be proud of where we are today, the fact remains that the cuts we are facing are larger than we’ve ever faced before.” Minneapolis Superintendent Lisa Sayles-Adams, for her part, told a school board meeting in late March, “This budget is unlike many others in recent memory.” Minneapolis Senior Financial Officer Ibrahima Diop said, “It’s the biggest gap that I’ve seen so far. ... As we prepare for proposed reductions and eliminations, we are planning the operational changes necessary to continue to serve our students in the short and long term.” Implicit in the statements of district officials is the lying argument that there is simply not enough money, and brutal cuts are unavoidable. But to put the budget shortfalls in perspective: The richest man in Minnesota is Glen Taylor, according to Forbes, with a net worth of $2.9 billion. Taylor is owner of the Taylor printing company and the 1,088th wealthiest man in the world. He could easily cover the shortfalls and still be a multi-billionaire. Minnesota-based corporate giants such as UnitedHealth Group, 3M, Target, Best Buy and others, meanwhile, have all reaped billions in profits in recent years, while benefiting from tax breaks overseen by both Democratic and Republican administrations. The school cuts in Minnesota are part of a nationwide attack on public education. The largest attacks since at least the 2008-09 Great Recession are being planned and implemented in cities across the US.In response, teacher and student opposition is building. Last month, educators, students, bus drivers and community supporters of educators rallied to oppose plans for massive cuts planned by the Wayne-Westland Community Schools District board in the Detroit area, temporarily blocking the plans. Earlier in March, in Flint, Michigan, teachers organized a one-day sickout in opposition to the school district’s decision to overturn pay raises awarded in their contract. Both actions were initiated by rank-and-file educators.While teachers have been looking for a way to fight back, the union apparatuses have been doing everything possible to contain opposition and prevent strikes. The National Education Association and the American Federation of Teachers are both intensely concerned about preventing struggles from erupting during an election year, for fear that they would develop into a political confrontation with the Democratic Party. In a blunt admission of the union’s determination to prevent a walkout, Minnesota Federation of Teachers (MFT) President Greta Callahan, who is also running for a school board seat, said in late March, “What we are desperately trying to avoid right now is another strike. … we don’t want that to happen again.”
The reckoning over puberty blockers has arrived Across the United States, thousands of parents have consented to having their children’s puberty stopped with a class of drugs called gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists. Known colloquially as “puberty blockers,” these drugs overstimulate the pituitary gland to the point of preventing it from sending signals to the ovaries or testes to start producing the hormones responsible for puberty. Parents who have consented to these drugs for their children love their kids dearly, but they’ve consented under entirely false pretenses. The doctors who’ve advised them say that puberty blockers are known to improve mental health — that they are even life-saving — and that they are fully reversible and just give kids “time to think.” None of this is true.Major American medical associations say that “gender-affirming care” for kids is “medically necessary” and “life-saving.” Health authorities Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and the U.K. disagree. Last month, the National Health Service of England decommissioned puberty blockers as a treatment of adolescent gender dysphoria. “We have concluded that there is not enough evidence to support the safety or clinical effectiveness of [puberty blockers] to make the treatment routinely available at this time,” the NHSE explained.Imagine if American doctors told parents the following truths. The mental health benefits of puberty blockers are highly uncertain, according to multiple systematic reviews of theevidence, the bedrock of evidence-based medicine. The World Health Organization says the evidence is “limited and variable.” There is no research into long-term harms, but some evidence suggests decreased IQ and brittle bones. Permanent sterility is guaranteed for minors who go through full hormonal “transition.” Sexual dysfunction appears to be extremely common as well. Over 93 percent of kids who take these drugs go on to cross-sex hormones, which lead to permanent physical changes including excruciating genital growth, vaginal atrophy and tearing and much higher risk for cancer and cardiovascular disease.There is no credible evidence that puberty blockers function as suicide-prevention measures. Finland’s top gender clinician has called the suicide narrative “purposeful disinformation” and “dangerous.” For all these reasons, health authorities in a growing number of countries, including some of the most LGBT-friendly, are now prioritizing talk therapy.
Harvard Applications Decline Following Anti-Semitism Controversy The prestigious Harvard University has seen a noticeable decrease in the number of applications to the school,after many months of controversy over the university’s handling of anti-Semitism on campus, as well as other controversies involving plagiarism and forced diversity.According to Just The News, Harvard saw a 5% decrease in the number of applications between last year and this year.While the class of 2027 saw about 57,000 applications for Harvard, the incoming class of 2028 saw about 54,000.The controversy started in the immediate aftermath of the October 7th attacks against Israel by the Islamic terrorist group Hamas, which resulted in the deaths of over 1,400 Israelis. On the Harvard campus shortly thereafter, multiple demonstrations broke out in support of Hamas, which frequently featured anti-Semitic slurs and harassment of Jewish students.After Congress launched an investigation into the university’s poor handling of anti-Semitism on campus, President Claudine Gay initially remained stubborn in her defense of the university’s conduct before eventually resigning from her position in January. It was later revealed that she had committed numerous acts of plagiarism over the course of her career.Other elite universities have recorded a similar trend with regards to declining applications.Brown University also saw a 5% decrease compared to last year, while the University of California Berkeley saw a 1% decrease in the same time period.All three universities are currently being investigated by the U.S. Department of Education over discrimination against Jewish students on campus, in addition to the ongoing investigation by the House Education and the Workforce Committee."Let all of US higher education be warned: If you don’t kick the radicals off campus and off the school’s board, shut down the DEI offices and focus on offering an education worth the cost of tuition, you could be next," the New York Post wrote in an editorial Saturday. Despite the decline in applications, Just The News reports that Harvard's anti-Israel stance appears to still be strong.The Harvard Law School Student Government passed a resolution last week calling for the school to divest from Israel and accusing the world's only Jewish-majority country of committing "genocide."
Latest FAFSA blunder leaves colleges in ‘compromising’ position -This year’s Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) saga has taken another turn after the Department of Education sent incorrect financial aid information to colleges and universities, possibly creating more delays for students and putting schools in a compromising situation. In the latest development, colleges have been told they are allowed to use faulty student data the department sent them, as long as the error means an applicant receives more federal aid than they qualify for, not less. The green light to purposely process information that is incorrect is a huge concern for advocates, as it can put financial aid administrators in a sticky situation, especially at a time where reprocessing forms could mean students don’t receive the financial aid information they need until May. “We want students to be able to get as much financial aid that they need, if they’re eligible. We want that absolutely 1,000 percent, right?” said Emmanual Guillory, senior director of government relations at the American Council on Education (ACE). “But at our institutions, this type information is audited. You don’t want to be on record literally processing information that’s inaccurate, knowingly processing inaccurate information.” “And you’re doing a disservice to students if you give them the illusion that they’re eligible for more aid in one year, when really, they’re not,” Guillory added. The errors affected hundreds of thousands of applications sent to schools last month. The department’s suggestion to universities to process the inaccurate forms came Monday, when it released a statement saying the schools “may use their professional judgment to decide on a case-by-case basis, whether to proceed with the current ISIRs [institutional student information records] for FAFSAs when reprocessing is expected to increase students’ SAI [student aid index] and reduce financial aid eligibility, or to request that the Department reprocess any one or more of those FAFSAs.” But Guillory said that is an unfair spot to put college officials in, especially as any investigations by a future administration could lead to problems for universities if they accept incorrect data. “It just puts our professionals or financial administrators on the ground in a very compromising position. It should never be their decision to choose between doing things the right way, which means actually processing the [forms] using the accurate data” or choosing the way that would give some students more money but forcing officials to say, “’We’ll just compromise everything that we’ve been told not to compromise,’” he said. Guillory said his group is not confident the April financial aid timeline will stay in place, and that students will likely get offers after the typical May 1 deadline for them to decide on a school. The Education Department said in a statement to The Hill that Federal Student Aid and the IRS “have implemented fixes that have resolved the majority of these issues for applications moving forward.” “On Monday, the Department provided more information to schools to address these issues and how to move forward on packaging aid offers for records not affected by these issues – which are the vast majority of previously-submitted applications,” a spokesperson for the department said. The department and other advocates have encouraged schools to move back their decision deadlines in light of the troubles with FAFSA, with about 150 schools already moving theirs back, according to ACE.
University of Michigan retaliates against student protesters as over 3,200 back referendum calling for divestment from Israel --The University of Michigan (U-M) has summarily implemented its new repressive “anti-disruption” policy in advance of the officially announced feedback deadline of April 3, handing out trespassing tickets to students and banning them from school facilities.According to an article in The Michigan Daily on Friday, Students Allied for Freedom and Equality (SAFE) reported that three students were served citations Thursday morning by police in Ann Arbor “for trespassing at the 101st Honor Convocation when a protest disrupted the event at Hill Auditorium Sunday.”The tickets were handed out as more than 100 students protested outside a meeting of the U-M Board of Regents on Thursday morning to demand the university divest from companies linked to Israel and the genocide being carried out in Gaza. According to some students, the Board of Regents moved its meeting up to 9:00 am from the normal 4:00 pm starting time to avoid the protesters.The new “disruptive activity policy,” which threatens the expulsion of students and termination of faculty and staff for actions deemed disruptive to “normal celebrations, activities, and operations of the University,” was in response to the abrupt shutdown of the Honors Convocation held March 24 at Hill Auditorium. Students in attendance held up signs and shouted slogans against the US/Israeli mass murder in Gaza and the complicity of the university during a speech by U-M President Santa Ono.When the protesting students assembled outside the Alexander G. Ruthven Building on Thursday morning, March 28, they were confronted by 13 state police officers and barricades with flyers on them that had QR codes linking to the “Statement of Student Rights and Responsibilities,” the “Standard Practice Guide” and the Michigan State Trespass Law.In an anonymous interview with the Daily, one student reported having received a ticket Thursday morning stating the student was banned from five campus buildings. The student said, “I never received a warning. I was blindsided by this ticket. … While I was walking with my friend, a police officer grabbed me and informed me that I was banned from five university buildings.”A video posted to Twitter/X by the pro-Palestinian TAHRIR Coalition at U-M shows University of Michigan police officer T. Cargill serving a ticket to a student and saying, “This is from the Hill Auditorium incident, Okay. Same thing, Ruthven, Hill Auditorium, Rackham, Michigan Stadium and Chrysler Arena. You are not allowed to go there.”The student then asks, “So, I can’t go to my own graduation?”, to which the officer replies, “There is a way to appeal that, Okay. You can contact and I believe we’ll make arrangements for that, Okay?”
University of Florida eliminates all “Diversity, Equity and Inlcusion” positions, Texas shuts DEI offices - As part of an offensive in Republican-controlled states against the institution of “Diversity, Equity and Inclusion” (DEI), the University of Florida last month laid off all DEI administrators and contractors as well as the “chief diversity officer.” The University of Florida, one of the largest and highest-rated universities in the state, announced that all affected employees would receive 12 weeks severance pay and would be considered for different jobs on campus, while all funds previously budgeted for DEI would be reallocated. This purge follows fascistic Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ signing of the “Stop Woke Law” in 2023, which made Florida one of the first states to enact a law restricting DEI. The Florida law bans state universities from spending federal or state money on DEI programs, offices or administrators. In Texas, DEI offices were eliminated at major state schools following the passage of a similar law. The Texas Senate’s Education Committee will meet in May with university leaders as part of an inquisitorial process to ensure that the universities have complied with the ban. Since January 2023, at least 73 bills targeting DEI have been introduced in state legislatures. Of these, eight passed, 25 failed to pass, and the remainder are pending, with more expected to be introduced this year. The Republican offensive against DEI pits the fascistic “America First” forces gathered around Trump against one of the key institutional bastions of identity politics, itself a reactionary ideology promoted by the Democratic Party. With its roots in the policy of racial preferences known as “affirmative action,” DEI has ballooned into a multi-billion-dollar industry that spans academia, the military, the intelligence apparatus and the headquarters of America’s corporate and financial conglomerates. In the university context, DEI is associated with practices such as requiring academics to submit mandatory “diversity statements” explaining how their work has contributed to DEI. Universities are mandated to administer “diversity training,” as part of what amounts to racial, gender and other personal identity quotas, enforced in the name of “equity.” Under the rubric of “diversity training,” participants are divided by race and confronted with concepts such as “white privilege” and “white fragility.” The mandatory “diversity statements” are often seen as exercises in cynicism and dishonesty, both for the author and the evaluator, especially where the course subject matter has no plausible connection to “diversity.” “Equity,” as opposed to “equality,” has come to mean advancement based on considerations other than merit. It is no accident that the chosen middle term of DEI is a synonym for wealth in the form of stocks, bonds, property and other financial assets. At New York University and other campuses, student groups have used DEI to demand racially segregated student housing. For their part, the “consultants” who administer and ensure “compliance” with DEI have given rise to a lucrative industry in its own right. The Republican far right, which does, in fact, aim to incite racism, is seeking to capitalize on the resentments and divisions among working people and youth generated by the practices and methods of DEI. A protest called to defend DEI on March 8 at the University of Florida drew a dozen students at most, underscoring the shallow support for DEI policies among students. This stands in the starkest contrast to the massive demonstrations of students of all races, genders and ethnicities across the US and around the world to oppose the Gaza genocide.
Top Journalism School Mandating Diversity Course To Earn Degree Mandatory wokeness has crept into one of the top journalism schools in the United States. View of the campus of Arizona State University (ASU), a public research university located in Phoenix, Arizona (Shutterstock) The Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication is requiring students to complete the course Diversity and Civility at Cronkite (DCC) in order to earn their bachelor’s degree in journalism. The course, which also applies to students studying sports journalism and digital media, redefines such traditional phrases as “America is a melting pot” as race-based microaggressions and teaches future journalists to avoid assuming “unearned benefits” that come with “heterosexual privileges.” Examples of outdated heterosexual privileges given in the curriculum include excluding biological males who identified as female from traditional sex-segregated places like women’s locker rooms and women’s prisons. “To object to a man using a women’s bathroom is an example of discrimination against transgender individuals,” reads a chapter in the course entitled “Sexuality and Gender Identity.” Also part of the seven-unit course is required reading material entitled “A Guide to Gender Identity Terms.” It includes lessons that emphasize the importance of asking someone for their preferred pronouns and using them. “You should offer your own pronouns first and then ask for the other person’s pronouns,” the reading material states. “While it can be awkward at first, it can quickly become routine.” The course also teaches students to view statements like “I believe the most qualified person should get the job,” as a microaggression that translates into “People of color are given extra unfair benefits because of their race,” and “Everyone can succeed in this society, if they work hard enough,” as implying that “People of color are lazy and/or incompetent and need to work harder.” In response to inquiries from The Epoch Times, the state-run college described the mandatory course as “an entry-level course intended to bring thoughtful, open-minded discourse to issues of race, gender, sexual orientation, ability, income, geography and other aspects of personal identities.” “The goal of the course is to help students appreciate people’s differences and to channel disagreements toward civil discussion,” the college said in a statement. “With that view, students should be better able to approach reporting and communications projects with a multicultural perspective and inspire mutual respect among students from various backgrounds and beliefs while at the university, and beyond.”
Which US College Major Is The Worst For Finding A Job? - Finding a job can often be a Sisyphean task in this rapidly changing modern economy. Highly sought after skills come and go, following the greater tides of technology change, marketplace behavior, and shifting consumer patterns.After all, take a look at what’s happening in the tech world.Education plays an important role in this job hunting business of course. And some skill sets are losing their sheen, with their practitioners having a harder time than others in securing gainful employment.But which ones are the worst right now?We visualize the top 10 U.S. college majors, ranked by their unemployment rate, including their underemployment rate for additional context. These figures are of recent college graduates (those aged 22–27 with a bachelor’s degree or higher) and are sourced from the New York Federal Reserve, current up to February 2024. Underemployment is when workers are working less than full-time or in insufficient jobs for their training. Heading the first three spots on this list are all the majors with “art” in their name. Nearly 8% of recent Art History, Liberal Arts, and Fine Arts graduates are unemployed, with more than 50% of them underemployed. At fourth place, 7.8% of recent Aerospace Engineering majors have not found a job—a surprising statistic since engineering is regarded as one of the more stable majors to study. In fact from same data source, Industrial and Mechanical engineers have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. However, aerospace engineering jobs tend to be clustered around the big companies in an otherwise small industry, with additional requirements for security clearances. Tellingly, the underemployment rate for aerospace engineering graduates is less than 20%, which is the best out of this list. At fifth, sixth, and seventh place are History (7.5%), English (6.6%), and Mass Media(6.3%) of which the former two have also seen a rapid decline in undergraduates in the last decade.
New Report Details Horrifying Cost Of Fauci's Failures - by Ian Miller via The Brownstone Institute, In the post-pandemic period of Covid, there’s now a concerted effort to comprehend and explain the damage that was caused by our capitulating to the hysterical overreaction and overreach of the ‘experts.’ There’s a long list of policy failures to examine; mask mandates were a disaster that accomplished absolute nothing of value, but instead led to tremendous harms, many of which continue today. Children were forced into masks for years on end, millions of people still wear masks when traveling or inside stores and restaurants, permanently convinced of the deliberate falsehood that masks are effective prevention tools. Perhaps most disturbing is that healthcare workers in blue cities are often still required to mask. Some hospitals have required masking continuously since 2020, while others are now enforcing rolling mandates based on the delusions of administrators and expert authorities. Research into the economic cost of many of our Covid policies and mandates is still ongoing, but a new, extremely detailed report on school closures has created a horrifying context for just how damaging Anthony Fauci’s advocacy was during the pandemic.The research begins with an obvious acknowledgment of the failures which occurred due to Covid mandates. Despite wildly different policies, there was virtually no difference in outcomes between countries.“From the available evidence, it is difficult to identify the specific responses to the pandemic that led to better outcomes,” they write. “Countries clearly responded to the challenges in very different ways, from essentially no school closures (Sweden) to multiple years of closures (Uganda and Indonesia). Yet, simple statistics such as the length of school closures or overall health policies cannot explain much of the variance in outcomes.”Lockdowns, mask mandates, vaccine passports…none of it mattered, nor does it explain the variance in outcomes between countries. Why? The obvious answer is that none of these policies had the slightest chance of preventing transmission of a highly infectious respiratory virus.Instead, the likely explanation for variance in outcomes comes down to differences in accounting for Covid cases and deaths, underlying health and age demographics, or pre-existing immunity from exposure to similar coronaviruses, which was almost certainly the reason why countries in Asia performed much better than Western countries during the early part of the pandemic, but was conveniently ignored in favor of “experts” maintaining the wishful thinking that “mask culture” was responsible. Regardless of the explanation, the fact that there is no consistent factor to attribute better outcomes to is in itself an indictment of our Covid policies and mandates. If it’s impossible to define why a country did better or worse than another country, there should be no justification for continued restrictions. If only someone had told Fauci or his allies in the public health establishment in 2020-2021, but instead they forcefully criticized any opposition who understood the reality, such as Florida governor Ron DeSantis. The researchers spent most of their time attempting to assess the many harms caused by one of the pandemic’s most inexcusable policies: school closures. And the results of their estimates are jaw-dropping.“Based on the available research on lifetime earnings associated with more skills, the average student in school during the pandemic will lose 5 to 6 percent of lifetime earnings,” they found. “Because a lower-skilled workforce leads to lower economic growth, the nation will lose some $31 trillion (in present value terms) during the twenty-first century. This aggregate economic loss is higher than the US GDP for one year and dwarfs the total economic losses from either the slowdown of the economy during the pandemic or from the 2008 recession.”
Study describes more severe pediatric mental health crises during pandemic | Children visiting the emergency department (ED) for mental health crises during the pandemic had longer stays and more severe diagnoses, according to a new study in Academic Emergency Medicine.The study was based on ED visits to nine US hospitals participating in the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network Registry from 2017 to 2022.The authors looked at four periods: pre-pandemic (January 2017 through February 2020), early pandemic (March through December 2020), 2021, and 2022, and calculated rate ratios (RRs) of observed to expected visits per 30 days during each pandemic time period.Overall, there were 175,979 mental health ED visits by children during the study period. Most (70.4%) of visits were by adolescents 12 to 18 years old, 52.4% by females, 51.8% by non-Hispanic White children.Visit length exceeded 12 hours for 7.3% of prepandemic visits, 8.4% of early pandemic visits, 15.0% of visits in 2021, and 19.2% of visits in 2022, the authors said.However, duing the first year of the pandemic, observed visits per 30 days decreased relative to expected rates (RR 0.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 0.84). Observed visits decreased further in 2022 (RR 0.92; 95% CI, 0.86 to 0.98).Only in 2021 did visit rates match expected rates similar to expected rates during the pre-pandemic period (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.96–1.07)."Our data shows that pediatric emergency departments saw more severe mental health presentations during the pandemic, even while the actual number of visits decreased in 2022, " said lead author Jennifer Hoffman, MD, MS, of Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in a press release from the Children's Hospital of Chicago. "The dramatic increase in prolonged ED stays attests to the strain on the system and difficulties finding appropriate psychiatric care for children, whether in the hospital or in the community," Hoffman said. In analyses that took into account age, sex, and race, the authors found that ED visit rates for girls increased in 2021 and 2022, but not for boys. The findings echo other studies from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that show teen girls experienced higher rates of depression and anxiety doing the pandemic.
Steady rise in US suicides among adolescents, teens - U.S. rates of suicide by all methods rose steadily for adolescents between 1999 and 2020, a new analysis shows. During those two decades, over 47,000 Americans between the ages 10 and 19 lost their lives to suicide, the report found, and there have been sharp increases year by year. Girls and minority adolescents have charted especially steep increases in suicides, said a team led by Cameron Ormiston, of the U.S. National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities. "An overall increasing trend was observed across all demographics," the researchers wrote in a study published March 29 in the journal JAMA Network Open. The findings were based on federal death certificate data from 1999 through 2020. By race, sex and means of suicide, some troubling trends stood out. For example, while deaths from drug (or other substance) overdose rose by 2.7% per year between 1999 and 2020 among all adolescents, it rose by 4.5% per year among girls, specifically. That trend has only accelerated in recent years: Between 2011 and 2020, suicides by overdose jumped 12.6% per year among female adolescents, Ormiston's group reported. All of this suggests that "adolescents are finding more lethal means of poisonings, contributing to an increase in deaths by suicide," they said. And while suicides using guns rose 5.3% per year during 1999 to 2020 among boys, it increased even more rapidly (7.8% per year) among girls. Although older teen boys have traditionally had higher suicide rates than girls, "recent evidence suggests these gaps may be closing as suicide rates are increasing more rapidly among female adolescents than male adolescents," the researchers said. However, it was among minority kids that the most dramatic, troubling increases were seen. For example, between 2012 and 2020, suicide deaths using firearms jumped 14.5% per year among Black adolescents, with similar trends noted among Hispanic, American Indian/Alaska Native and Asian American adolescents, the study found. "The recent, rapidly accelerating rates of firearm suicide among Black, Hispanic or Latino, and American Indian and Alaska Native adolescents are concerning," Ormiston's group said.
Michigan governor signs bill decriminalizing paid surrogacy - Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) signed a bill Monday legalizing paid surrogacy, arguing the controversial practice enables people to start families more easily. The Michigan Family Protection Act also establishes legal protections for in vitro fertilization (IVF), a practice that has been in the political spotlight since it was briefly banned by a court in Alabama in February.“Decisions about if, when, and how to have a child should be left to a family, their doctor, and those they love and trust, not politicians,” Whitmer said in a statement. “If we want more people and families to ‘make it’ in Michigan, we need to support them with the resources they need to make these deeply personal, life-changing choices.”“Your family’s decisions should be up to you, and my legislative partners and I will keep fighting like hell to protect reproductive freedom in Michigan and make our state the best place to start, raise, and grow your family,” she added.With the new law, paid surrogacy is now only illegal in Nebraska and Louisiana. The new Michigan law allows surrogate mothers to be compensated for carrying a child and provides them with legal protections throughout the process. The law also requires that surrogates receive medical screening.Compensation for surrogacy has been opposed by some conservatives, especially religious conservatives, who argue it exploits the act of childbearing for profit. Pope Francis said in January that the practice should be banned outright. A similar bill in Congress to protect IVF procedures, which also included the legalization of surrogacy, was blocked by the Senate GOP earlier this year. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) said the legislation is an overreach full of “poison pills” that would go far beyond ensuring access to IVF.
"Insane": US Physicians Received Billions From Pharmaceutical And Medical Device Industry, New Research Finds -U.S. physicians received more than $12 billion in payments from the pharmaceutical and medical device industry over a 10-year period, according to a new analysis.A research letter published on March 28 in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that the industry made over 85 million payments to more than 820,300 (57 percent) of eligible physicians across 39 specialties from 2013 to 2022. Nearly 94 percent of the payments were related to one or more marketed medical products. Researchers examined data in the Open Payments database to determine what payments were made across different specialties and the medical products associated with the largest total payments. Data only included payments received for consulting, nonconsulting (such as speaker or faculty fees), travel, food, entertainment, education, gifts, grants, charitable contributions, and honoraria.The Open Payments database is a federal transparency program that was established in 2013 out of concern that financial relationships between physicians and the industry were unduly influencing healthcare decision-making and costs.The analysis found that payments varied considerably between specialties and among physicians of the same specialty. For example, the mean amount paid to the top 0.1 percent of physicians ranged from $194,933 for hospitalists to $4.8 million for orthopedic surgeons, while the payments to the median physicians ranged from zero to $2,339.Orthopedic physicians received the greatest sum of payments, $1.4 billion, followed by neurologists and psychiatrists, $1.3 billion, cardiologists, $1.3 billion, and hematologists/oncologists, $825.8 million. Nearly 55 percent of pediatricians and 63 percent of infectious disease physicians received payments from the industry, while physicians practicing preventative medicine received the least sum of payments.“From 2013–2022, pharma paid 12 billion dollars to U.S. physicians. That’s mind-boggling. Insane. That’s how silence is bought, the minds of physicians influenced, and ultimately patient care/prescribing patterns influenced,” Dr. Manni Mohyuddin, an oncologist, hematologist, and assistant professor at the Huntsman Cancer Institute, told The Epoch Times. Dr. Mohyuddin emphasized that the average payment received was low, but some physicians received a significant amount of money and have influence over writing guidelines, chairing committees, clinical trials, influencing opinions, and more.
HHS tells hospitals to get patient consent before invasive exams - Hospitals must obtain informed consent from patients before allowing physicians to conduct sensitive and invasive examinations, such as pelvic and prostate, particularly if the patients are under anesthesia, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said Monday. In new guidance and in a letter sent to teaching hospitals, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra and other officials said they were acting based on “increasing concerns” about the absence of informed patient consent in educational settings. “The Department is aware of media reports as well as medical and scientific literature highlighting instances where, as part of medical students’ courses of study and training, patients have been subjected to sensitive and intimate examinations,” HHS said in the letter. “It is critically important that hospitals set clear guidelines to ensure providers and trainees performing these examinations first obtain and document informed consent from patients before performing sensitive examinations in all circumstances,” the agency said. A New York Times investigation in 2020 found that hospitals and physicians, including medical students in training, aren’t required to obtain explicit consent from patients before conducting pelvic exams. In some cases, the investigation found the exams were only done for teaching purposes and weren’t medically necessary. HHS in the guidance specified that informed consent includes the right to refuse consent for sensitive examinations conducted for teaching purposes and the right to refuse to consent to any previously unagreed examinations to treatment while under anesthesia. Privacy laws give individuals the right to restrict who has access to their protected health information, including in scenarios where they may be unconscious during a medical procedure, HHS said. “While we recognize that medical training on patients is an important aspect of medical education, this guidance aligns with the standard of care of many major medical organizations, as well as state laws that have enacted explicit protections as well,” the department said. “Informed consent is the law and essential to maintaining trust in the patient-provider relationship and respecting patients’ autonomy.”
Study links air quality improvements to fewer school COVID cases Efforts to improve air quality at a special education school in Rochester, New York, were associated with fewer COVID-19 cases in staff and students, researchers from the University of Rochester Medical School reported yesterday in PLOS One.The Mary Cariola Center enrolls more than 450 students ages 3 to 21 who have severe intellectual and developmental disabilities. The research team noted that the population is at increased risk of COVID complications and may also struggle with protective measures such as social distancing and mask wearing.During the pandemic, the school took extra steps to keep kids in school safely, given that the school provided such important therapy and services. The school focused on air filtration and improving airflow. To gauge the impact, in November 2022 the researchers measured carbon dioxide levels over a 1- to 3-day testing period across 100 rooms in three buildings on the school's campus, ranging from small classrooms to a gymnasium. They collected data on COVID cases in the rooms from August 2021 through August 2022.All rooms stayed well below the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) carbon dioxide limit. Only three rooms had lower ventilation for 2 or more hours.The investigators noted, though, that many rooms reached the moderate level, hinting at less-than-optimal air flow. The team found that the number of COVID cases among people in a given room was linked to the time they spent in rooms where carbon dioxide levels were moderate. Researchers also found a link between COVID cases and air filtration. One building on the campus was newer and had a ventilation system that supported high-efficiency MERV-13 air filters, which can capture more virus particles. They found that classrooms in buildings that had the more porous MERV-11 filters were had more COVID cases. In a press release from the University of Rochester Medical School, Martin Zand, MD, PhD, professor of medicine at the school and the study's coleader, said, "One thing that COVID taught us is that there isn’t one single magic solution that will prevent all infection from all viruses. Rather, a combination of approaches is most effective, including masking, vaccination, ventilation, and air filtration."
COVID-19 research: Study reveals new details about potentially deadly inflammation -A recent USC study provides new information about why SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind the COVID-19 pandemic, may elicit mild symptoms at first but then, for a subset of patients, turn potentially fatal a week or so after infection. The researchers showed that distinct stages of illness correspond with the coronavirus acting differently in two different populations of cells. The study, published in Nature Cell Biology, may provide a roadmap for addressing cytokine storms and other excessive immune reactions that drive serious COVID-19.The team found that when SARS-CoV-2 infects its first-phase targets, cells in the lining of the lung, two viral proteins circulate within those cells—one that works to activate the immune system and a second that, paradoxically, blocks that signal, resulting in little or no inflammation.The team also discovered a second pathway the virus sometimes takes to enter immune cells. This alternative pathway both stunts the virus's ability to reproduce and prevents the production of the second immune signal-braking protein. The first protein is then able to spur rampant inflammation linked to severe symptoms."There are two stages that work through different signaling pathways," said Rongfu Wang, Ph.D., a professor of pediatrics and medicine at the Keck School of Medicine of USC. "With the normal pathway, everything goes normally, and the virus replicates. When the immune cells pick up the virus, replication is defective, but it produces a lot of inflammatory signaling molecules called cytokines."In lab experiments, the Keck School of Medicine scientists identified a drug that quelled inflammation in human immune cells infected with SARS-CoV-2 and reduced symptoms in mice, suggesting that it may be possible to prevent deadly cytokine storms.Wang and his colleagues began with two related core questions: Why is so little inflammation seen with SARS-CoV-2 in lung cells? And, for the people who don't recover in the first seven to 10 days, why do the symptoms get so much worse? The researchers started by screening all SARS-CoV-2 proteins to see which ones regulate the production of cytokines. Their search yielded two results: a protein called NSP14, which causes inflammation, and another called ORF6, which quells it.The team followed up on this finding with an exhaustive series of experiments encompassing protein-on-protein reactions, human and animal cell lines, lab models, and tissue and fluid samples from COVID-19 patients.This is the picture that emerged: When the coronavirus enters a cell of the lung lining through its known entry point, the ACE2 protein on the cell's surface, both NSP14 and ORF6, are produced within the cell. ORF6 acts as a guardian at the membrane surrounding the cell nucleus, effectively silencing the inflammatory signal."In this population of lung cells, ORF6 overrides NSP14 so that no cytokines are produced," said Wang, who is also the Endowed Chair in Cell Therapy Research at Children's Hospital Los Angeles. "Even if NSP14 takes action, ORF6 doesn't let it get into the cell nucleus. The door is closed, so it's completely blocked for cytokine production." While it has been suspected that SARS-CoV-2 affects immune cells, to date, there hasn't been a clear view of how this works. The Keck School research team shed substantial light on this topic.They mapped out the process for how SARS-CoV-2 interacts with immune cells, which generally lack ACE2 proteins on their surface. Wang and his colleagues found that immune cells take the virus inside through a membrane protein called TLR1, which acts as a sort of virus sensor as part of the body's first line of defense. Instead of the coronavirus's well-known spike protein latching onto these cells, SARS-CoV-2 connects using one of the envelope proteins on its surface.The nature of this separate entrance prevents the production of ORF6, eliminating the anti-inflammatory signal. The pro-inflammatory protein NSP14 then drives immune cells to send out cytokines that can cause the serious, sometimes fatal symptoms seen in later-stage COVID-19.The findings' larger implications suggest that early-stage COVID-19 is best addressed by attempting to stymie viral replication, while later-stage therapy should focus on taming inflammation.
Among fully vaccinated, study shows Paxlovid does not shorten symptoms -- A new study in the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that, for those fully vaccinated against COVID-19 but having at least one risk factor for severe COVID, the antiviral drug Paxlovid did little to reduce symptom duration, but experts caution the findings might not apply to older patients. The phase 2/3 trial of 1,296 participants randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive nirmatrelvir–ritonavir (Paxlovid) or placebo every 12 hours for 5 days within 5 days of COVID-19 symptom onset. A total of 654 participants took Paxlovid, and 634 participants took the placebo. Included in the study were patients who were fully vaccinated and who had at least one risk factor for severe disease, as well as patients without such risk factors who had never been vaccinated against COVID-19, or had not been vaccinated within the previous year. The most common risk factors noted were obesity, smoking, and high blood pressure, and only 2% of participants had heart or lung conditions that predisposed them for severe COVID-19 infections.Participants recorded daily symptom severity on a 4-point scale (0, absent; 1, mild; 2, moderate; 3, severe), and the included symptoms were cough, shortness of breath or difficulty breathing, feeling feverish, chills or shivering, muscle or body aches, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, headache, sore throat, and stuffy or runny nose.The primary end point was sustained symptom alleviation, defined as the first of 4 consecutive days during which all symptoms that had been scored as moderate or severe and as mild or absent at baseline were scored as mild or absent and as absent, respectively, the authors said."The median time to sustained alleviation of all targeted signs and symptoms of COVID-19 was 12 days in the nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group and 13 days in the placebo group (P=0.60)," the authors wrote.A secondary end point was COVID-19–related hospitalization or death from any cause through day 28 of the trial. Five participants (0.8%) in the nirmatrelvir–ritonavir group and 10 (1.6%) in the placebo group were hospitalized for COVID, or died from any cause by day 28."The results with respect to the numbers of Covid-19–related hospitalizations and deaths from any cause in this trial, although not significant, are consistent with and supported by recent real-world data," the authors wrote.
States that lean Republican report more COVID vaccine-related adverse events, study finds | CIDRAP - US states with a 10% increase in Republican voting reported a 5% increase in COVID-19 vaccine–related adverse events (AEs), a 25% increase in severe AEs, and a 21% higher proportion of AEs characterized as severe, with more pronounced associations in older people, a study today in JAMA Network Open concludes.A University of Pennsylvania–led research team analyzed 620,456 AE reports filed by adult vaccine recipients or their clinicians in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database from 2020 to 2022, and compared them with AEs after influenza vaccination from 2019 to 2022. They examined the AEs against state-level proportions of Republican votes in the 2020 US presidential election.The average age of vaccine recipients was 52 years, and women made up 70.2% of AE reporters. Vaccinees were able to file more than one report.VAERS reports have not been verified, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) notes. "Anyone, including healthcare providers, vaccine manufacturers, and the public, can submit reports to the system," the CDC says. "While very important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness.""Antivaccine sentiment is increasingly associated with conservative political positions," the study authors wrote. "COVID-19 mortality has been higher in US jurisdictions that are more conservative in their party registration, voting history, or representation. These differences are likely explained, in part, by differences in vaccination rates." Significant links were seen between state political inclination and state AE reporting for all three outcomes: a 10% increase in Republican voting was tied to greater chances of AE reports (odds ratio [OR], 1.05), severe AE reports (OR, 1.25), and the percentage of AEs characterized as severe (OR, 1.21). While these associations were seen across all age-groups, they were more pronounced among older people. There was no such association for the flu vaccine. "These results suggest that either the perception of vaccine AEs or the motivation to report them was associated with political inclination," the researchers wrote. They added that the link between observation and belief is bidirectional. "The adage 'seeing is believing' recognizes that our individual experiences inform our sense of truth, and 'believing is seeing' recognizes that our preconceptions modulate what we experience in the first place," they wrote. "In finding that Republican-inclined states show higher COVID-19 AE reporting than Democrat-inclined states, this study suggests that Republicans are more likely to perceive or report those AEs and that Democrats are less likely to," they concluded.
COVID-19 patients with neurologic symptoms have worse outcomes for up to 3 years, data show - Hospitalized COVID-19 patients with neurologic manifestations at the time of admission had worse long-term outcomes at various time points up to 3 years compared to matched controls in a study published yesterday in PLOS Medicine. The study is based on outcomes seen in patients at the Montefiore Health System in the Bronx, New York, in March and April 2020. Follow-up data were captured through January 2023. The health system was one of the first epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United StatesThe researchers compared 414 patients with COVID-19 who had significant neurological manifestations with 1,199 patients matched for age and COVID-19 severity score but without neurologic manifestations. Significant neurologic manifestations included stroke, seizure, and vertigo. A higher percentage of patients in the neurologic cohort were discharged to acute rehabilitation (10.39% versus 3.34%), the authors said. The incidence of readmission for any reason was also higher for the neurologic group (65.70% versus 60.72%). Overall, patients in the neurologic cohort were more likely to die post-discharge compared to controls (hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.59 to 3.47), with higher death rates at 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years post-hospitalization."Patients with significant neurological findings during COVID-19 hospitalization were more likely to have worse outcomes at 3-year follow-up compared to propensity matched controls," the authors concluded. "Improved understanding of the long-term outcomes of patients with COVID-19 with neurological involvement could help to develop effective screening methods and innovative interventions to address the potentially high burden of care among these COVID-19 survivors."
No need to avoid exercise with long-COVID diagnosis, researchers say -Recommendations that people with long COVID, or post-COVID condition (PCC), should avoid vigorous exercise are probably too strict, according to a new study published inJAMA Network Open from researchers at the Karolinska Institutet in Sweden.Many long-COVID patients are told to avoid activities that exacerbate symptoms such as fatigue, shortness of breath, and pain, and many report exercise intolerance, or a "flare" in symptoms following exercise.The study was based on 31 patients with PCC but no other diagnoses. They were matched with healthy controls and monitored while performing three different training sessions of high-intensity interval training (HIIT), moderate-intensity continuous training, and strength training in a randomized order a few weeks apart. Seventy-seven percent of the participants with long COVID were women, and the average age was 46.6 years.Participants were asked to rate symptoms at baseline, immediately after exercise, and 48 hours after exercise. The researchers also gave participants blood tests, heart ultrasound, spirometry for lung function, muscle strength tests, neurophysiologic tests, and muscle biopsies within 2 days of the exercise tests.Surprisingly, there were no differences in the two groups on self-ratings of fatigue. Patients with PCC had greater exacerbation of muscle pain after HIIT, however."What we can generally see is that the post-COVID patients do just as well as the controls, even though they had more symptoms to begin with. By equally well, I mean that they did not worsen their symptoms or negatively affect their body during the 48 hours we observed them," said Andrea Tryfonos, PhD, first author of the study, in a press release from the Karolinska Institutet.
Wastewater testing near homeless camps shows COVID-19 viral mutations - Wastewater testing has become a hallmark of viral surveillance during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a new study looking at samples collected near homeless encampments reveals novel viral mutations and transmission patterns and 26% of water samples containing SARS-CoV-2 genetic material.The study was published today in Environmental Science & Technology Letters. Traditional wastewater monitoring relies on testing samples from local sewage infrastructure, which serves homes and apartment buildings. SARS-CoV-2–infected people shed maximum viral RNA levels in fecal matter at the beginning of infection and for up to 7 months following the initial infection. Previous studies have shown wastewater samples have predicted when COVID-19 activity has spiked in a location, and identified variants of concerns.To capture those changes among homeless people, researchers needed to sample waterways near encampments, and not traditional sewage lines. In the present study, water near encampments outside Las Vegas was sampled from December 2021 through July 2022.Scientists collected the water from flood-control infrastructure that is known to be affected by homeless populations, the authors said.They found that, of 57 samples obtained, 15 (26.3%) contained detectable levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, with highest concentrations in January and February 2022, which corresponded to peak Omicron activity in Las Vegas."These results demonstrate that environmental water samples from flood control channels impacted by unsheltered individuals appear to contain the same SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the broader community … with some intermittent signals from previously circulating variants," the authors wrote. In subsequent whole-genome sequencing, the authors identified the SARS-CoV-2 variants in the waterways. Almost all variants matched what was seen in traditional sewage infrastructure. "However, we also detected 10 of 22 mutations specific to the Alpha variant in the environmental water samples collected during January 2022—one year after the Alpha infection peak," they noted.Analysis of viral sequences uncovered three novel viral spike protein mutations, but the authors said there was not enough information to determine if the mutations changed clinical outcomes for COVID-19 patients in the encampments. "Due to a lack of clinical surveillance data for unsheltered individuals, we were unable to directly compare variant prevalence for the environmental water samples with this particular population," the authors said.
UN report highlights growing global inequality following COVID-19 pandemic - The latest United Nations Human Development Report details vastly uneven economic and social development that is leaving the world’s poorest people behind, worsening inequality and stoking political polarization. The 2023/24 Human Development Report, Breaking the Gridlock: Reimagining cooperation in a polarized world, reveals that what the report calls a post-pandemic rebound in the global Human Development Index (HDI)—a summary measure reflecting a country’s Gross National Income per capita, education and life expectancy—has been partial, incomplete and unequal. The onset of the pandemic precipitated the world’s greatest recession since World War II, with global output falling three times more than during the 2007–2008 global financial crisis and far more abruptly, as economic activities came to a halt. Global unemployment rates have not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels, pushing more workers into the informal sector where they work for a pittance. The report, despite the bland and under-stated language of such official publications, and its unwarranted presentation of the pandemic as an event in the past, rather than ongoing, makes important points about the world’s growing interdependence amid “prolonged power imbalances.” While the advanced countries are experiencing record-high levels of human development, half of the poorest countries have failed to reach their pre-COVID-19 levels. The pandemic has led to at least 15 million deaths (and counting), the report states, more than all the recent pandemics combined (Asian Flu, Hong Kong Flu, Swine Flu, SARS, Ebola and MERS). The HDI’s estimate of global COVID deaths is a conservative one with the more accurate Economist survey estimating approaching 30 million excess global deaths up to the end of 2023. The pandemic not only reduced life expectancy at birth in most countries but also impaired other components of the HDI, interrupting access to education and leaving enduring scars on the economy. This was compounded by what the report described as the “mismanagement of global interdependencies,” more accurately described as the criminality of the major powers in the interests of the financial oligarchy. It cited the refusal of the most advanced countries and pharmaceutical companies to ensure the universal and equitable access to effective COVID-19 vaccines—whose development was the result of international scientific cooperation—both within and between countries. Similarity it referred, without explanation, to “the huge disparity in measures taken by governments,” meaning the refusal of all governments to take the stringent measures initially embraced by China that would have stopped the virus spreading. The global HDI value has rebounded to a projected highest level ever in 2023. But this is still below its projected trend pre-pandemic and masks profounds divergence across countries. All 38 members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) achieved higher HDI scores compared to their levels in 2019. But among the 35 least developed countries that saw their HDI decline since the pandemic began, more than half (18 countries with 328 million people) have not yet recovered to their 2019 levels. None of the “developing” regions have met their expected HDI levels based on their pre-2019 trend, shifting instead to a lower HDI trajectory and indicating that these losses are likely to be permanent. This is seen most sharply in war-torn Afghanistan and Ukraine, with Afghanistan’s HDI set back by a staggering 10 years and Ukraine’s HDI to its lowest level since 2004. The UN report warns that the global HDI value, while an important value, is a crude yardstick for measuring human development. It reflects incompletely, if at all, important factors such as the debilitating effects of illnesses, including Long COVID, spikes in mental health disorders, violence against women and loss of schooling, while some losses—including 15 million lives lost—can never be recovered. Self-reported stress, sadness and worry rose in most countries, even before the pandemic, which along with the rising sense of dissatisfaction which recent Human Development Reports had covered, had resulted in numerous social protests in 2019. The report warns that inequality is compounded by substantial economic concentration. For example, it states that almost 40 percent of global trade in goods is concentrated in three or four countries, while the market capitalization of each of the three largest tech companies in the world in 2023 surpassed the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of more than 90 percent of countries in that year.
Global life span increased since 1990 but took a COVID hit - Global life expectancy increased by 6.2 years since 1990 in large part because of a reduction in infectious diseases, according to a study yesterday in The Lancet. The progress came from reducing deaths from diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and heart disease, but has been slowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The study compared 288 causes of death from 1990 to 2021 in 204 countries and territories. A super-region comprising Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania had a net life expectancy gain of 8.3 years from 1990 to 2021. The region also had some of the tightest COVID-19 restrictions, which helped limit deaths from the novel coronavirus. Eastern sub-Saharan Africa experienced the largest increase in life expectancy, 10.7 years. Most of these gains were owing to control of diarrheal and enteric diseases. Improvements in managing diarrheal diseases increased life expectancy worldwide by 1.1 years from 1990 to 2021, the authors said.In those three decades, the leading causes of age-standardized deaths globally remained the same: ischemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardized cause of death in 2021, however, with 94.0 deaths (95% uncertainty interval, 89.2 to 100.0) per 100,000 population. The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3.6 years). "As a leading cause of death, COVID-19 reduced life expectancy in 2 years nearly as much as reductions in communicable and [noncommunicable diseases] have improved it over decades," the authors concluded.
US flu, COVID, RSV activity continues to recede -Respiratory virus activity in the United States is still elevated but continues to decline, with only 6 jurisdiction reporting high levels, down from 10 the previous week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its data updates. Flu markers declined for the third week in a row, following a prolonged rise after the winter holidays, according to the CDC's latest FluViewreport. Test positivity and hospitalizations declined last week, while overall deaths and outpatient visits for flulike illness remained level. Though the national level remains slightly above the outpatient visit baseline, six parts of the country are now below their regional baselines.Of respiratory samples that were positive for flu at public health labs, 61.1% were influenza A and 38.9% were influenza B. Of subtyped influenza A samples, half were the 2009 H1N1 strain and half were H3N2. Seven more pediatric flu deaths were reported, raising the season's total to 133. Two were due to influenza, with 5 were caused by influenza B. The CDC confirmed 184 pediatric flu deaths last season.In its latest updates for COVID, the CDC reported declines in severity indicators (hospitalizations and deaths) as well as early indicators (test positivity and emergency department visits).Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 detections remain low and declining in most parts of the country, except for a very small rise in the Northeast.For respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), activity continues to decrease across the country, and 8 of 10 regions are now below the 3% test-positivity threshold, suggesting that the RSV season is ending in those areas.Quick takes: US measles total climbs to 97, Novavax COVID vaccine data | CIDRAP
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 33 more measles cases, raising the national total so far this year to 97, according to its latest weekly update. The CDC also said 1 more jurisdiction, New York state, has reported a case, which brings the locations reporting cases to 18. Most of the latest cases are from an ongoing outbreak linked to a migrant shelter in Chicago. The CDC said 59% of the people with measles this year were unvaccinated, with status not known for 24%, and with 17% having received one or two measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine dose. More than half (56%) of the patients were hospitalized for isolation or treatment of illness complications.
- Novavax today released new data on its ongoing clinical trials of its COVID-19 vaccine that targets the XBB.1.5 variant. In a press release, the company said people who received the vaccine had robust antibody titers against XBB.1.15 as well as for JN.1, the currently circulating variant. It also said data show that safety and reactogenicity for the newer vaccine are similar to its prototype vaccine. The adjuvanted protein-based vaccine, made on a more traditional platform than other COVID vaccines, entered the US market in fall 2023.
Frequent contact with young children linked to increased pneumococcus risk in adults A new study released ahead of the upcoming European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ECCMID) in Barcelona, Spain, shows that transmission of pneumococcus was highest among older adults who had frequent contact with preschoolers and young school-aged children.The authors of the small, community-based study say the findings suggest that pneumococcal vaccination in adults could be beneficial even in populations where children are vaccinated at high rates. To assess the risks for acquisition of Streptococcus pneumoniae among community-dwelling older adults, researchers from Yale School of Public Health designed a longitudinal study that included 183 adults age 60 and over (mean age 70.9 years) from 93 households with and without young children. Every 2 weeks over a 10-week period across two seasons (November 2020 to August 2021 and November 2021 to September 2022), they obtained saliva samples and questionnaires regarding social behaviors and health status, then used polymerase chain reaction tests to detect pneumococcal DNA.Overall, 52 (4.8%) of 1,088 samples tested positive for pneumococcus, with 27 (22.3%) of 121 individuals colonized on at least one time point. Several study participants were colonized at multiple time points, including two who were colonized throughout the 10-week sampling period. The point prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was substantially higher among those who reported contact with children compared with those who reported no contact with children (10.0% vs 1.6%). In addition, 14.8% and 14.1% of participants who reported contact with children aged 5 years and under and those aged 5 to 9 years had pneumococcal carriage, compared with 8.3% of those who reported contact with children over age 10.Although the numbers were small, participants who had contact with children daily or every few days had the highest prevalence of pneumococcal carriage (15.7% and 14.0%, respectively). There was no clear evidence of adult-to-adult transmission."This suggests that the main benefit of adult pneumococcal vaccination is to directly protect older adults who are exposed to children who may still carry and transmit some vaccine-type pneumococcal strains despite successful national childhood vaccination programs," lead study author Anne Wyllie, PhD, said in an ECCMID press release.
Study demonstrates effectiveness of air cleaners at daycare centers --Researchers in Finland published interim results in March from an ongoing study on the effectiveness of portable air cleaners in daycare centers to reduce childhood infections. The study compared two daycare centers where they placed air cleaners to all other daycare centers in Helsinki, where air cleaners were not in use. Parents of children in the two daycare centers with air cleaners self-reported 32 percent fewer missed days of work due to their children’s illnesses as compared to parents of children in the other daycare centers. The reduction was an average of 5.53 missed days per parent to 3.77 days, during a six-month period in the winter from November 2022 to the end of April 2023. Because of the expense of the portable air cleaners and limitations on available space in the daycare centers to place them, the researchers used a novel mathematical model to guide placement. The goal was to place air cleaners in available locations in such a way as to maximize any reduction in infections. Their model calculates an estimated transmission probability and the number of individuals at risk for infection. The model is based on several parameters. Most relevant to the air cleaners, it includes the clean air delivery rate, an indicator of how rapidly infectious particles are removed from ambient air. Recommendations on clean air delivery rates vary by the authority issuing them. The Lancet COVID-19 Commission Task Force on Safe School, Safe Work, and Safe Travel currently recommends a minimum clean air flow rate of 10 dm³/s/person as “good” ventilation and a value greater than 14 dm³/s/person as “best” ventilation. A cubic decimeter or dm³ is equivalent to one liter or 0.035 cubic feet. ASHRAE, formerly known as the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers, does not have recommendations for daycare centers. However, for classrooms it recommends a flow rate of 20 dm³/s/person for control of infectious aerosols. For lecture halls, it recommends a higher value of 25 dm³/s/person. Notably, both daycare centers where the researchers placed air cleaners complied with existing Finnish regulations on air flow, which specify a considerably lower minimum. For non-residential buildings, the required clean air flow is only 6 dm³/s/person. The researchers estimated clean airflow rates for every room at both daycare centers prior to air cleaner placement and found values lower than 6 dm³/s/person for several rooms at both daycare centers. The researchers placed on average one portable air cleaner per room in each daycare center, resulting in 22 air cleaners placed at daycare A and 23 at daycare B. The air cleaners included 14 different models from six manufacturers. The maximum clean air delivery rates of the cleaners varied, but the study operated most cleaners at lower rates than maximum capacity due to the noise of the fans. A strength of the study is that the researchers confirmed manufacturer specifications on clean air delivery rates prior to placing them. The clean air flow rates at which they operated the air cleaners ranged from approximately 35 dm³/s to 417 dm³/s with an average of 155.3 dm³/s. The study found that at the two daycare centers where they placed air cleaners, the placement of air cleaners increased non-infectious airflow rates considerably. Prior to air cleaner placement at daycare A, only 68 percent of the rooms met or exceeded the Lancet Task Force minimum of 10 dm³/s/person when at maximum occupancy. For daycare B, this figure was 63 percent.Prior to air cleaner placement at daycare A, only 68 percent of the rooms met or exceeded the Lancet Task Force minimum of 10 dm³/s/person when at maximum occupancy. For daycare B, this figure was 63 percent.
Study finds widespread bacterial contamination on hospital surfaces in low- and middle-income nations - A study of hospital surfaces in six low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) indicates colonization with multidrug-resistant bacteria is common, researchers reported late last week in Nature Communications.The researchers also found evidence that the observed colonization of hospital surfaces by multidrug-resistant bacteria may be linked to cases of neonatal sepsis.Focusing on countries that were involved in the BARNARDS (Burden of Antibiotic Resistance in Neonates from Developing Societies) study, which assessed common sepsis-causing pathogens in newborns in LMICs, a team led by researchers at Cardiff University collected and analyzed hospital surface swabs from 10 hospitals in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Rwanda, and South Africa. Their aim to was determine the prevalence and diversity of extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)- and carbapenemase-carrying bacterial species colonizing neonatal wards. Of the 6,290 surface swabs collected, 60.7% were positive for gram-negative bacteria and 13.3% were positive for ESBL and carbapenemase genes. A higher prevalence of carbapenemase genes was observed in hospitals in Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ethiopia, and the most common surfaces for bacterial colonization were those near sink drains. Contamination of medical equipment and ward furniture was also commonFurther analysis of 175 isolates using MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry showed that Klebsiella pneumoniae was the most frequent carbapenemase-producing bacteria, followed by Eneterobacter hormaechei. Analysis of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data revealed that, in one hospital in Pakistan where cases of neonatal sepsis had been reported in the BARNARDS study, isolates of K pneumoniae sequence type (ST)15—which carries two carbapenemase genes—were identified on surfaces from the same ward on multiple occasions and were nearly identical to those from neonatal blood cultures.WGS also showed evidence of similarity between plasmids carrying antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) detected within Enterobacterales from multiple hospital surfaces, indicating possible horizontal transmission."This data highlights the widespread bacterial colonisation and the transmission of bacteria carrying multiple ARG upon hospital surfaces, which could be useful to guide realistic approaches and support action plans for countries where IPC [infection prevention and control] practices are limited," the study authors wrote.
Klebsiella pneumoniae: An opportunistic pathogen harmless to some, but causes severe disease in others -- Klebsiella pneumoniae is a common species of bacteria found in our bodies—and may even be lurking in your gut, mouth or nose right now. But it's also a notoriously harmful bacteria that can make us very ill. It's the most common cause of hospital-acquired pneumonia in the US and the second most frequent cause of urinary tract infectionsworldwide, after Escherichia coli (E coli). If it infects wounds or enters the bloodstream, K pneumoniae can cause bloodstream infections and sepsis. Scientists aren't entirely sure what proportion of the population carries K pneumoniae as part of their normal gut microbiome. For example, one survey of healthy people detected K pneumoniae in almost 4% of stool samples. Yet other studies show K pneumoniae is noticeably more common among certain groups—including hospital patients, people living in lower income countries and, in particular, among people who had traveled to Asia.K pneumoniae is what's known as an opportunistic pathogen. This means that when carried in the gut, nose or mouth as part of the normal microbiota, K pneumoniae should not cause any health problems unless a person's immune system becomes compromised due to an infection or disease. So our microbiome can act as a reservoir of K pneumoniae, from which it can spread to other parts of the body and cause infection.One study of 498 intensive care patients at a hospital in Australia found that half of K pneumoniae infections were caused by the patient's own K pneumoniae strain that had already been living in their gut or throat.It's thought that K pneumoniae can spread from the gut to other parts of the body via medical devices such as ventilators. This type of gut-to-lung translocation has recently been observed in other pneumonia-causing species of bacteria, such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Surgeries can also make possible the spread of K pneumoniae to sites where it can cause infection.Unfortunately, some K pneumoniae strains have developed high levels of drug resistance. This means that some drugs once used to treat K pneumoniae infections now no longer work. It's particularly concerning that some strains of K pneumoniae are developing resistance to the group of antibiotics called carbapenems, which are generally only used as a last resorttreatment when other antibiotics haven't worked. And, this resistance is becoming more widespread among the population. There's an urgent need to develop alternatives to antibiotics so that cases of drug-resistant K pneumoniae can be prevented or treated.
Surveillance study finds high levels of drug-resistant gonorrhea in Cambodia Data from 10 sentinel sites in Cambodia show a high prevalence of ceftriaxone-resistant and multidrug- and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) gonorrhea, researchers reported yesterday in JAC-Antimicrobial Resistance. To investigate Neisseria gonorrhoeae levels in Cambodia, which has been linked to cases of ceftriaxone-resistant gonorrhea in France and Australia, researchers with the World Health Organization (WHO) Enhanced Gonococcal Antimicrobial Surveillance Program (EGASP) analyzed urethral swabs of 437 male patients who presented at the 10 sites with urethral discharge from January 2022 to June 2023. Of those men, 306 had positive N gonorrhoeae cultures, antimicrobial resistance (AMR) test results, and complete epidemiologic data.Resistance ceftriaxone, cefixime, azithromycin, and ciprofloxacin was 15.4%, 43.1%, 14.4%, 97.1%, respectively. Nineteen (6.2%) of isolates collected from 7 of the 10 sentinel sites were resistant to all four antibiotics and categorized as XDR. Furthermore, 18 of the 19 XDR isolates displayed high-level resistance to azithromycin.The most frequently reported treatment was the nationally recommended dual therapy of cefixime plus azithromycin, which was used in 65.4% of cases. The rest were treated with ceftriaxone plus azithromycin. Of the 30 patients who received a test of cure, 11 (36.6%) were still N gonorrhoeae–positive.The authors of the study note that the prevalence of resistance to ceftriaxone, cefixime, and azithromycin all exceeded the 5% AMR level used by the WHO and other public health agencies to indicate when the recommended first-line treatment should be changed. They say the findings are of "grave concern" both for Cambodia and from an international perspective."This necessitates expanded N. gonorrhoeae AMR surveillance, revision of the nationally recommended gonorrhoea treatment, mandatory test of cure, enhanced sexual contact notification, and ultimately novel antimicrobials for the treatment of gonorrhoea," they wrote.
DR Congo mpox outbreak tops 4,500 cases so far this year -A severe mpox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) continues at a brisk pace, with cases in the first quarter of 2024 triple that of the same period last year, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said yesterday at a media briefing that covered a host of global health issues. The DRC's outbreak involves a different clade than the one circulating globally. The clade 1 virus in the DRC has proven to be more virulent and the pattern of spread is notable, given that children are among the hardest-hit groups and because until now, the clade 1 virus hadn't been known to spread sexually. The virus that is spreading globally belongs to clade 2. Tedros said more than 4,500 cases have been reported so far this year, up from nearly 4,000 reported in the middle of March. Nearly 300 deaths have been reported in 2024."While mpox is spread among children by close contact, there is also a concerning outbreak among adults due to sexual transmission in previously unaffected areas," he said. The WHO and its partners are supporting the DRC's health ministry with the mpox outbreak response and to assess mpox vaccines. Tedros said more funding is needed to support the response and to ensure that the outbreak doesn't spread to neighboring countries. He added that the WHO's vaccine advisory group last month called for steps to help the DRC gain easier access to mpox vaccines.
Quick takes: Mpox spread in DR Congo, cholera rapid testing, wild-type polio in Afghanistan | CIDRAP
- Zoonotic (ie, from animals), human-to-human close contact, and human-to-human sexual transmission are occurring in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) mpox outbreak, which involves a different clade than the one that continues to circulate globally, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said today in an epidemiologic update. Children make up 70% of cases and 88% of deaths, and their infections are mainly due to household contact with infected adults and spillover from small animals. The ECDC added that the DRC's sexual transmission cases seem to be concentrated among sex workers—both women and men—and their contacts in the mining areas, which don't have direct travel connections to Europe and pose a limited risk of spread. So far, no recent clade 1 cases have been confirmed outside of the DRC, but local spread to Rwanda and Burundi is possible.
- As part of the response to cholera outbreaks in multiple countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) today announced the first shipments of rapid tests for the illness, starting with Malawi. The WHO said more than 1.2 million tests will be deployed to 14 countries and funded through Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. The goals are to help speed detection, monitor outbreaks, gauge vaccine campaign effectiveness, and target future vaccination efforts.
- Afghanistan has reported its first wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) case of the year, according to the latestweekly update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI). The patient is from Kunar province in the northeast. Afghanistan and Pakistan are among the countries in which WPV1 is still endemic. Pakistan had earlier reported two WPV1 cases this year. Elsewhere, Nigeria reported three more cases involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), bringing its total for the year to seven. The cases are in Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina states.
Alaskapox virus renamed as borealpox virus - The Alaska Department of Health (ADH) announced that it has been consulting with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) to change the name of the Alaskapox virus to “borealpox virus,” with the renaming taking effect with the start of April.ADH said the name references the ecosystem where the virus was found in humans and small animal reservoirs. Also, it said the name is less specific and offers more leeway for the possibility of the virus being identified in animals and humans outside of Alaska.Virus naming has sometimes been a hot button issue, and over the past several years, naming has shifted away from nomenclature that includes specific geographic locations or populations.Earlier this year, the state reported the seventh known case of borealpox—a man from the Kenai Peninsula. His infection marked the first fatality from the novel orthopox virus. The case was notable, partly because it was the first to occur outside of the Fairbanks area, suggesting that the virus may be more widespread in the state's small mammals than previously known.
Study highlights TB racial/ethnic disparities among US-born patients --A new study by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health has found significant and persistent racial disparities in tuberculosis (TB) incidence among US-born residents. The findings were published yesterday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.While racial disparities have long been present in US TB incidence, because most cases occur among people from racial and ethnic minority groups born outside the United States, few studies have examined racial disparities in TB incidence specifically among the US-born population. To do so, the researchers analyzed data from the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on US-born patients with reported TB disease from 2011 through 2021, comparing TB incidence rates, incidence rate differences, and incidence rate ratios among different racial and ethnic minority groups. They stratified the results by sex, age-group, and whether TB disease was attributed to recent transmission.Among the 31,938 TB cases in US-born patients analyzed, researchers found substantially higher incidence among racial/ethnic minority populations. Compared with non-Hispanic Whites, TB incidence rate ratios were 4.4 times higher for Hispanics, 6.6 times higher for Asians, 6.8 times higher for Blacks, and 14.2 times higher for American Indian/Alaska Natives. Within each racial/ethnic population, absolute disparities in incidence rates were generally greater for males than females, while relative disparities were greater for females, younger people, and those who had TB attributed to recent transmission. Over the course of the study period, the researchers estimate there were 6,950 excess TB cases attributable to racial/ethnic disparities among women, 11,130 among men, and 18,080 total.
Bird flu detected in dairy worker who had contact with infected cattle in Texas - A dairy worker in Texas is being treated for bird flu, only the second human case in the United States of an illness caused by a highly virulent virus that has recently rampaged through dairy cows in five states, federal and state officials said Monday.The patient, who experienced eye inflammation as the only symptom, was tested for flu late last week, with confirmatory testing performed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention over the weekend. The patient was told to isolate and is being treated with oseltamivir, an antiviral drug sold under the brand name Tamiflu. The newly emerged case does not change the risk for the general public, which remains low, federal officials said.“The patient worked directly with sick cows at a dairy, so the virus was most likely transmitted through that close contact,” said Chris Van Deusen, a spokesman for the Texas Department of State Health Services. The case has alarmed disease trackers monitoring for the worst-case scenario: human-to-human transmission of the pathogen, which has happened infrequently worldwide, typically among family members engaged in work with animals. And it raises questions about whether this pathogen is now more easily transmitted among mammals. Texas health officials are working with other state and federal agencies to provide guidance to dairies about precautions workers should take to minimize the risk of transmission from animals and encourage those who become ill to get tested, Van Deusen said. CDC spokesman Kevin Griffis said the investigation into how widely the virus has spread is ongoing. “At this time, we are not aware that any of the individual’s close contacts have experienced any symptoms,” he said. Officials do not yet know the specific route of transmission. Advertisement While the CDC considers the risk of infection for the general public to be low, people with close or prolonged, unprotected exposures to infected birds or other animals (including livestock), or to environments contaminated by infected birds or other animals, are at greater risk of infection. Still, any time the virus changes “that makes me sit up and take notice,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Its recent emergence in cattle and the likelihood of cow-to-cow transmission represents a worrisome change. This marks the first time the highly pathogenic avian influenza has been identified in U.S. dairy cattle, the American Veterinary Medical Association said in a statement last week. Matt Steele, chief executive of the Kansas Cattlemen’s Association, said beef and dairy producers constantly check the health of their animals. If an animal appears sick, they’ll pull it aside, take its temperature and call in a veterinarian, if needed. The odds of infected meat or dairy products leaving the farm are “very, very low,” Steele said, citing a system of checks and balances between the producers and state and federal agencies. “This isn’t really a major disease outbreak” that would heavily impact the meat and dairy market, he said. Human infections with avian influenza viruses are uncommon but have occurred sporadically worldwide. The CDC has been monitoring for illness among people exposed to H5 virus-infected birds since outbreaks were first detected in U.S. wild birds and poultry in 2021. Until now, only one human case had been identified in the United States. In 2022, a person in Colorado tested positive for the same strain of avian flu. The person was involved in culling poultry presumed to have been infected with H5N1 bird flu. The person reported fatigue for a few days as their only symptom and recovered, according to the CDC.
Avian flu infects person exposed to sick cows in Texas --Federal and state health officials today reported that a person connected to a dairy farm in Texas has tested positive for H5N1 avian flu, the first known case linked to sick dairy cows and the nation's second since the virus began circulating in wild bird and poultry in 2022.Today's case announcement underscores new interim guidance that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released over the weekend on preventing, detecting, and responding to avian flu infections in humans, which are very rare and mainly pose a threat to people who are exposed to sick animals or contaminated environments.The day before the CDC posted its new guidance, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service announced that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has now been confirmed in a dairy herd in Michigan, bringing the number of affected states to five.The CDC said today that the patient reported eye redness (conjunctivitis) as the only symptom and is recovering. The patient has been asked to isolate and is being treated with a flu antiviral drug.The Texas Department of State Health Services (TDSHS) said the person had contact with dairy cows, and it urged healthcare providers to be vigilant for people with symptoms of H5N1 flu, especially in those who have close contact with animals that have suspected infections.Though conjunctivitis isn't a common symptom of seasonal flu, the TDSHS said it has been seen before in people infected with avian flu viruses.In its new guidance, the CDC urged people exposed to H5N1 in birds or other animals to monitor themselves for new respiratory symptoms, including conjunctivitis, for 10 days following initial exposure. The monitoring is recommended even for people who wear recommended personal protective equipment.For patients with conjunctivitis symptoms, the CDC recommends that healthcare providers obtain both conjunctival and nasopharyngeal swab samples."CDC is working with state health departments to continue to monitor workers who may have been in contact with infected or potentially infected birds/animals and test those people who develop symptoms," the agency said in its news release today.Past experience with H5N1 suggests that people who have contact with sick animals are at highest risk. The CDC and its state partners routinely monitor people exposed to the virus, and from January 2022 through September 2023—a period when the US poultry industry was hit hard by the virus—had monitored about 6,500 people from 52 jurisdictions. Of those, illnesses were reported in 165 people, and of those, testing revealed H5N1 in only 1, a person who was involved with culling at a poultry farm in Colorado. Fatigue was the man's only symptom.Asymptomatic cases were reported in a few poultry workers in the United Kingdom and Spain who were positive for H5N1 in initial tests, and it's not clear if their results reflected true infection or surface contamination of the upper airway tract.The H5N1 clade circulating in the United States and several parts of the world, however, has resulted in severe and fatal infections. Globally, at least 12 cases involving the 2.3.4.4b H5N1 clade have been reported, according to CDC background data. The disease was fatal in a patient in China, and Chileans and Ecuadorians had critical illnesses. Nearly all had been exposed to sick or dead birds. An older H5N1 clade circulating in parts of Asia has been linked to a spate of recent H5N1 infections in Cambodia, most of which were severe or fatal. The cases typically involved people who had exposure to sick poultry. APHIS said the Michigan dairy herd had recently received cows from Texas, where the virus had already been confirmed. "Spread of symptoms among the Michigan herd also indicates that HPAI transmission between cattle cannot be ruled out," the group said. Similarly, Idaho's agriculture department last week announced that HPAI was detected at a facility that had imported cattle from an earlier-affected state.The Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development said the dairy herd where HPAI was found is in Montcalm County, which is in the central part of the state. The cattle were moved from Texas before any animals on the source farm showed signs of disease, and they didn't have any symptoms or appear ill when they were moved to Michigan.Genetic sequencing suggests that the H5N1 virus found in Michigan is very similar to strains confirmed in Texas and Kansas and was probably initially introduced to the dairy herds by wild birds, according to APHIS. So far, sequencing shows no changes in the virus that would make it more transmissible to humans.
Second bird flu case confirmed in human in US: What to know - Federal authorities are downplaying the public health risk after the second ever case of a human contracting the “highly pathogenic” bird flu in the United States was confirmed in Texas on Monday. The infected man was exposed while he worked as a dairy worker, the Texas Department of State Health Services said. The person had minor symptoms but has received treatment, state health officials said.“This infection does not change the H5N1 bird flu human health risk assessment for the U.S. general public, which CDC considers to be low,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a statement on Monday. The CDC added that people with “close or prolonged, unprotected exposures to infected birds or other animals (including livestock), or to environments contaminated by infected birds or other animals” are at greater risk of infection.USDA has confirmed infections of dairy cattle herds in five states — Texas, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico — with results in Idaho “presumed” to be positive.The movement of cattle across state lines, especially from Texas, has accounted for the spread, according to CDC. States like Nebraska have issued temporary restrictions on cattle imports because of the bird flu. Bird flu, also known as H5N1 or avian influenza, has ravaged billions of dollars of poultry across the world, but mass infections of cattle — and human infections — are rare.The avian flu’s modern history in humans begins in China in 1996, where it spread from geese to people in Hong Kong the following year. In a two month period, it killed a third of the 18 people it infected, according to the CDC.The Hong Kong outbreak showed for the first time that the virus could transmit from birds to humans directly. Direct, prolonged contact with or consumption of infected birds has often explained avian flu transmission in the nearly three decades since.However, cases of humans contracting the disease since have been sporadic and isolated. The worst fear among public health experts is human-to-human transmission of the virus, which has yet to occur. Still, the virus has killed more than 50 percent of its human victims from 2003 to 2016, according to a study published by the National Institute of Health (NIH).
Tests confirm avian flu on New Mexico dairy farm; probe finds cats positive -- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service yesterday announced that tests have now confirmed highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in a New Mexico dairy herd and that the virus has now been confirmed in five more Texas dairy herds.Part of quickly evolving developments, the announcement came shortly after Texas health officials and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced the first human case, which involves a person from Texas who had contact with dairy cattle, highlighting the risk to farm workers. And in another development, Texas officials yesterday said that cats showing illness signs in the dairy farm settings were also positive for the virus. So far, the virus has now been confirmed on seven Texas farms, along with two in Kansas, and one each from New Mexico and Michigan. The USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratory in Ames, Iowa, is working to confirm a presumptive positive from a dairy herd in Idaho.Following yesterday's announcement of the first human H5N1 infection linked to dairy cow exposure, the Texas Department of State Health Services issued a health alert that urged health providers to be vigilant for people with symptoms from H5N1, especially those who have had contact with potentially infected animals. It also noted that in March, investigators collected samples from several animals in Texas and Kansas. Wild birds, cats, and dairy cows were tested because they showed illness signs. "Further testing of these samples indicated the presence of avian influenza A(H5N1)," the TDSHS said. A press officer from the TDSHS confirmed in an e-mail that sick cats tested positive for the virus.The Texas Animal Health Commission said in an e-mail that it has received lab confirmation of HPAI for three cats. Wild birds on affected farms had earlier tested positive for H5N1, and evidence is growing that the virus may be spreading cow to cow. Investigations are still underway to sort out how the virus is spreading on farms, which includes identifying the extent of virus circulation in other animals or wildlife. Cats are among the mammals previously known be contract H5N1, with infections reported in the United States, Poland, and South Korea.Virologists are also looking for clues as genetic sequences in US ruminants and wild birds are uploaded to public databases.Louise Moncla, PhD, assistant professor of pathobiology at the University of Pennsylvania School of Veterinary Medicine, yesterday said on X (formerly known as Twitter) that USDA scientists have rapidly sequenced full genomes and that she and her collaborators have added them to the Nextstrain visualization tool, which allows scientists to map the family tree of virus sequences.She said sequences from the dairy cows nest with those from wild bird samples collected from Texas about the same time. However, the goat samples from Minnesota are most similar to a pheasant sequence from Colorado.
Bird flu reportedly found in Ohio cow herd, state officials say (WJW) – The Ohio Department of Agriculture is investigating reports that a cow herd in the state tested positive for bird flu. The ODA announced Tuesday it was notified that a Wood County cattle herd presumptively tested positive for highly pathogenic avian influenza. On March 8, the dairy operation acquired cows from an operation in Texas, where bird flu was later detected. Cases among cattle herds have since been confirmed in Texas, Kansas, Idaho, New Mexico and Michigan. Ohio officials learned that the livestock started showing symptoms seen in other sick cattle herds. The test results still need to be confirmed by the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Veterinary Services Laboratory, ODA says. “The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as well as state veterinary and public health officials, continue to investigate the emerging illness among dairy cows that is causing decreased lactation, low appetite and other symptoms,” ODA said in a press release. There have been no reported cow deaths linked to the bird flu cases. According to ODA, most sick cows start recovering after a few days. The FDA and CDC say there are no concerns with commercially pasteurized dairy products and bird flu risk to the general public remains low. Dairy farmers are encouraged to report sick cattle as soon as possible. “If dairy producers in Ohio should see unusual clinical symptoms similar to those described, they are to contact their herd veterinarians,” ODA said in the release.
CDC sequencing of H5N1 avian flu samples from patient yields new clinical clues The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) last night released a detailed analysis of H5N1 avian flu samples taken from a patient in Texas who was exposed to sick cows, which suggests that the infection might involve the eyes but perhaps not the upper respiratory tract.Also, when CDC scientists compared the human H5N1 samples to viruses from cattle, wild birds, and poultry, they found in the human sample a mutation with known links to host adaptation. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) announced that highly pathogenic avian flu has been confirmed in a cow herd from Idaho and Ohio agriculture officials said tests have confirmed the virus in a dairy herd that had received cows from Texas.The CDC detailed its sequencing findings, along with its observations about what those findings might mean for the clinical picture, in a technical update on its website. Scientists saw minor differences between the human specimens and the cattle samples and that the viruses had avian characteristics.However, the human samples had one change—PB2 E67K—that has a known link to virus adaptation to mammalian hosts, seen before in people and animals infected with H5N1, as well as other avian flu viruses. Scientists emphasized that the marker hasn't been linked to transmission and that the results of the analysis doesn't change the CDC's assessment for H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses that the overall risk to human health remains low. Raj Rajnarayanan, MSc, PhD, a computational biologist with the New York Institute of Technology, said PB2 E67K alone isn't sufficient to enable efficient human to human transmission. "However, this highlights the value of increased genomic surveillance and rapid dissemination of sequence data ASAP." Also, the CDC detailed what investigators found during testing of the patient's nasopharyngeal and eye swabs. According to earlier reports, the patient's only symptom was conjunctivitis, a mild symptom seen in some earlier avian flu infections. Testing on the nasopharyngeal sample didn't yield enough RNA for sequencing, but CDC scientists were able to sequence material from the eye swab sample. "Notably, the patient reported only conjunctivitis with no respiratory or other symptoms, which likely resulted in lower viral RNA concentrations detected in the nasopharyngeal sample and is suggestive of a lack of respiratory infection in the patient," the CDC said.
Avian flu outbreaks strike commercial farms in Texas and Michigan - The Texas Department of Agriculture (TDA) yesterday announced a highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak at a massive layer farm in the state's panhandle, which will require the culling of 1.6 million laying hens and 337,000 pullets.TDA Commissioner Sid Miller said the outbreak wipes out 3.6% of the flock owned by Cal-Maine Foods, Inc, which is the nation's largest fresh egg producer. "This is absolutely devastating news for Cal-Maine and the entire Panhandle region which has already suffered so much already," he said, referencing the recent avian flu outbreaks at the state's dairy farms. "Given this latest development, all producers must practice heightened biosecurity measures. The rapid spread of this virus means we must act quickly." Elsewhere, the Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) yesterday announcedthat the Michigan State University Veterinary Diagnostic laboratory had detected HPAI in samples from a commercial farm in Ionia County, which is located in west-central part of the state. It said the detection marks the state's fourth outbreak in commercial poultry since 2022. State veterinarian Nora Wineland, DVM, said, "As the weather remains cool and wild birds continue their migration, conditions are ideal for the virus to thrive and spread. While these conditions persist, the need to take preventative measures will be high."
Top US Egg Supplier "Temporarily Ceases" Operations At Texas Plant After Bird Flu Outbreak -The largest egg producer in the US has temporarily halted production at one of its facilities after bird flu—also known as highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI—was detected. Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. wrote in a press release that HPAI was detected at "one of the Company's facilities located in Parmer County, Texas, resulting in depopulation of approximately 1.6 million laying hens and 337,000 pullets, or approximately 3.6% of the Company's total flock." "Production at the facility has temporarily ceased as the Company follows the protocols prescribed by the USDA. Cal-Maine Foods is working to secure production from other facilities to minimize disruption to its customers," the company said. Bloomberg said this is the "biggest bird flu casualty" since early December when 2.6 million birds were culled at a commercial egg farm in Ohio after HPAI was found. Cal-Maine also had a Kansas farm cull 684,000 hens the same month.In a mid-March note, we pointed out that data from USDA showed that Grade A egg prices at the supermarket were soaring again. Unlike the previous HPAI outbreak in 2022. There are reports the virus is spreading in dairy cattle herds - and even infecting humans. This raises significant concerns about the potential impact on the food supply chain. Infected Texas dairy cattle are experiencing decreased lactation and low appetite, with older cows more likely to be severely impacted. Some herds have reported pneumonia and clinical mastitis — an inflammatory disease — the Texas Animal Health Commission said by email. Most animals seem to recover in as many as two weeks with supported care, albeit with reduced milk production levels. Some cows may never see their milk production recover to pre-infection levels, in which case they might be culled, according to a HighGround Dairy report Monday. "The longer-term impact on supply is not entirely clear, as farmers are trying to maintain herd inventories in a time of tight cattle supplies," it said. –Bloomberg There have yet to be any reports that the virus has spread to beef herds, where the US cattle herd is at seven-decade lows, and supermarket prices are at record highs.
Officials warn of H5N1 avian flu reassortant circulating in parts of Asia -Animal health officials in Vietnam and with the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) today urged countries to be on alert for a new highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 reassortant virus in chickens and mescovy ducks, which was found during active surveillance.In a statement, the FAO said the virus is a reassortant between the older H5N1 clade (2.3.2.1c) that is still circulating in parts of Asia and a newer H5N1 clade (2.3.4.4b) that began circulating globally in 2021.The reassortant virus contains surface proteins of the older clade virus and internal genes from the more recent virus clade. The reassortant has been circulating across the Greater Mekong subregion, causing infections in birds and people since the middle of 2022.The FAO said the virus has been linked to human infections, though it didn't specify which ones.It said the reassortant virus poses a significant threat to animal and human health, given the impact of HPAI outbreaks in the region. "Further, this reassortment event indicates not only the adaptive capacity of the virus but also the ever-present risk of the emergence of new, potentially more virulent strains," the FAO said.Surveillance in Vietnam shows that the older clade is mainly circulating in the southern part of the country and the newer clade is circulating throughout the country. The reassortant turned up in a small number of samples from poultry markets in Vietnam's southern provinces in 2023, but scientists did not detect the worrisome PB2-E627K substitution, which is known to play a role in mammalian adaptation.The report didn't clarify which recent human cases involved the reassortant. It said that, since December 2023, five human H5N1 cases were reported in Cambodia, of which the first four involved the older virus clade which has detected in Cambodian poultry since 2014. Of the five cases, most were serious and one was fatal. Patients had a history of contact with poultry.
Federal judge dismisses $600 million lawsuit against paper mill for decades of toxic chemical releases in Kalamazoo, Michigan -- On March 15, a federal judge dismissed the class action lawsuit filed on behalf of residents of a neighborhood in Kalamazoo, Michigan, against Graphic Packaging International (GPI) and 21 local, state and federal government agencies and individuals. The $600 million lawsuit was filed last June and charged that GPI had discharged airborne chemicals at its paperboard mill in the Northside Kalamazoo community for two decades, causing serious and chronic health problems, including deaths of residents. The lawsuit also charged that a source of the foul-smelling and toxic hydrogen sulfide is the city’s wastewater treatment plant, which is adjacent to the GPI mill, and that government officials and agencies colluded with the company in covering up the nature and extent of the pollution. In a 63-page ruling, Judge Hala Y. Jarbou, Chief Justice of the United States District Court of the Western District of Michigan, agreed with motions filed by the defendants that argued the lawsuit lacked merit and should be dismissed. The judge also supported the claims of defendants that the lawsuit should be dismissed because it contained insufficient, improper and false allegations. However, in her ruling, Judge Jarbou did not attempt to refute or show that the evidence of toxic poisoning of the Northside Kalamazoo neighborhood did not exist. Instead, the judge seized upon several errors of fact in the lawsuit, especially the false assertion that GPI government relations employee Paul McCann is the brother of Michigan State Senator Sean McCann, and there were secret financial transactions between them. In sworn testimony submitted to the court, Senator McCann said he does not have a brother and is not related to anyone who works at GPI. Judge Jarbou, who was appointed to the federal bench in 2020 by then-President Donald Trump, also attacked the lawsuit for its accusation of “environmental racism” against GPI and its corporate parent because a majority of Northside Kalamazoo residents are African Americans. The judge wrote that the allegation that the defendants violated the constitutional rights “are conclusory and unsupported.” The judge ordered John R. Beason III, the lawyer who filed the lawsuit on behalf of current and former Kalamazoo residents, to submit a document to explain why the court should not sanction him for failure to comply with court rules.
Federal court finalizes ‘forever chemical’ settlement between 3M, water systems for billions --A federal district court judge has granted final approval to a multibillion-dollar settlement between public water suppliers affected by “forever chemicals” and the company 3M, the parties announced Monday. Per the terms of the agreement, the Minnesota-based chemical manufacturer will pay these utilities between $10.5 billion and $12.5 billion, depending on the extent of contamination and adhering to a payment schedule that runs through 2036.The settlement, approved Friday by U.S. District Judge Richard Gergel in South Carolina, pertains to multidistrict litigation (MDL) that consolidated thousands of cases against the producers of a type of firefighting foam that contains these chemicals, or per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).Releases of this “aqueous film-forming foam” — some of which was manufactured by 3M and has long served to fight fuel-based fires at military bases, civilian airports and industrial sites — have been affecting adjacent water systems and communities for decades.Notorious for their ability to persist in the body and the environment, PFAS have been linked to cancers and other serious illnesses. There are thousands of types of PFAS — substances found not only in the firefighting foam but also in industrial waste and a variety of household products. “This is yet another important step forward for 3M as we continue to deliver on our priorities,” 3M Chair and CEO Mike Roman said in a statement. “The final approval of this settlement and continued progress toward exiting all PFAS manufacturing by the end of 2025 will further our efforts to reduce risk and uncertainty as we move forward.”The finalization of this settlement comes two months after a similar but smaller, $1.18 billion agreement with DuPont de Nemours, as well as its spinoff firms Chemours and Corteva. While the settlements between the chemical manufacturers and the public water systems have now been finalized, the broader MDL is far from over. Other complaints, sorted into broad categories, include municipal property owners, personal injuries, medical monitoring cases and federal government challenges. But for now, the class counsel from the AFFF MDL Plaintiffs’ Executive Committee — attorneys Elizabeth Fegan, Michael London, Paul Napoli, Joe Rice and Scott Summy — expressed their approval of the agreement, noting in a joint statement that water providers “will now have the funds they need to begin fixing the harm PFAS chemicals have caused to our nation’s drinking water.” “Our goal throughout this litigation has been to hold those who polluted our public water systems accountable for their actions and for the harm inflicted upon millions of Americans,” the statement said. “No amount of money can fully compensate for the damage done, but we believe this settlement is fair and reasonable.”
‘I wouldn’t put my damn daughter in these’: Toxic ‘forever chemicals’ lurk in feminine products - Jessian Choy had worn Thinx menstrual underwear for years before she learned they contained “forever chemicals.” “I had always known that anything water, grease and stain resistant could have toxic PFAS chemicals in them because of my day job at the time,” said Choy, who was working in San Francisco’s Department of the Environment when she found this out.Forever chemicals, also known as per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), are a pervasive group of compounds that have been linked to a number of cancers and other illnesses. The toxic substances have become widespread in the air, soil and water via industrial discharge and are found in a number of common household items, from cookware to dental floss to stain-resistant furniture.And many of the products in which they have been detected — including waterproof makeup, workout leggings and period products — are primarily marketed toward women.Thinx denies that its products contain the substances, but settled a class-action lawsuit over allegations that they do last year. Choy writes a column at Sierra Magazine, a publication of the environmental nonprofit Sierra Club. When a reader asked her to recommend the most eco-friendly period products, she started digging into the issue. Choy said she felt she couldn’t recommend the undergarments without finding out if her suspicions that they contained the toxic chemicals were correct. She reached out to Graham Peaslee, a professor at the University of Notre Dame who was already well-known for discovering the presence of PFAS in fast food packaging. Peaslee agreed to test the Thinx briefs and BTWN Shorty underwear for teens for her — she sent unused pairs— and found that they contained enough PFAS to suggest they were made with the substances on purpose. Thinx has continued to maintain that its products do not contain PFAS after Choy wrote about Peaslee’s findings. In 2020, the company provided journalists with tests conducted by a different third party that did not find the substances in their product. “Our product safety testing is conducted by third party facilities to ensure our products meet the robust European safety standards of REACH and OEKO-TEX,” then-Thinx CEO Maria Molland said in a statement at the time. “Based on this outside expert testing, PFAS chemicals were not detected in Thinx products.”Peaslee said that the day after Choy published the findings, Thinx also told him that its products didn’t contain PFAS. Thinx’s findings, he said, only looked for a subtype known as “long-chain PFAS,” whose chemical structure contains more carbon atoms. During his assessment, Peaslee said he found short-chain PFAS, which have fewer carbon atoms. The scientist said he told the company as much. In response, he said they called him back the next day and asked him to tell the public their product was safe — an apparent attempt to blunt the negative publicity from an article that Choy wrote about his findings. “They called me back and said, ‘Well, this thing’s getting out of hand, can you just issue a statement saying they’re safe to wear?’” Peaslee said. “And I was like, ‘I’m sorry, did you not listen to a word I said yesterday? I wouldn’t put my damn daughter in these things.’” Allegations of PFAS in Thinx later spurred a class-action lawsuit claiming that the company “misrepresented the true nature of Thinx Underwear” by calling it free of harmful chemicals. The lawsuit was settled in 2023 for $5 million, enabling consumers to get back $7 per pair for every pair of Thinx underwear they purchased, up to three pairs. Nonetheless, Thinx still says its products are safe. Peaslee is not the only scientist to have found PFAS in period underwear — and Thinx is not the only brand found to contain them. In May 2022, a team of researchers at the Massachusetts-based Silent Spring Institute published a study in Environmental Science & Technology looking at the presence of PFAS in underwear and several other consumer items.
What we know about how 'forever chemicals' affect health --Invisible, omnipresent "forever chemicals" have been linked to a wide range of serious effects on human health, prompting growing calls for them to be banned.While there is firm evidence that at least one of the more than 4,000 human-made chemicals called PFAS causes cancer, researchers are still attempting to fully understand their broader impact on health.Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are synthetic chemicals that were first developed in the 1940s to withstand intense heat and repel water and grease.They have since been used in a vast range of household and industrial productsincluding food packaging, make-up, stain-proof fabric, non-stick pots and pans and foam used to fight fires.Because PFAS take an extremely long time to break down—earning them the nickname "forever chemicals"—over the years they have seeped into the soil and groundwater, getting into our food chain and drinking water in the process.These chemicals have now been detected virtually everywhere on Earth, from the top of Mount Everest to inside human blood and brains.The two most researched PFAS compounds have already been banned or restricted in many countries, though they remain detectable throughout the environment.Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), which was once used to make the non-stick cookware coating Teflon, was in December classified as "carcinogenic to humans" by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).The World Health Organization agency said there is "sufficient evidence" that PFOA gave animals cancer during experiments, as well as "limited evidence" of renal cell and testicular cancer in humans.Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS)—once the key ingredient in the Scotchgard fabric protector—was meanwhile ruled "possibly carcinogenic to humans".There was limited proof of cancer in animals but "inadequate evidence regarding cancer in humans", the IARC said.More broadly, observational studies have suggested that exposure to PFAS chemicals is associated with an increased rate of cancer, obesity, thyroid, liver and kidney disease, higher cholesterol, low birth weight, infertility and even a lower response to vaccines.But such observational research cannot prove that the chemicals directly cause these health problems.And the level of risk can vary greatly depending on the level of PFAS people are exposed to—almost everyone on Earth is believed to have at least a little PFAS in their bodies.According to the IARC, most at risk for serious PFAS exposure are people who directly work with the chemicals while making products.Exactly what level of PFAS exposure is hazardous to health has been a matter of debate.Previously, guidelines in numerous countries ruled that having less than 100 nanogrammes of PFAS per liter of tap water was enough to protect health.But the United States has proposed lowering the limit to four nanogrammes of PFOA and PFOS per liter—and the EU is considering following suit. Last year, a media investigation found PFAS levels over 100 nanogrammes per liter at 2,100 sites across Europe and the UK.The level soared over 10,000 nanogrammes at 300 of the sites, according to the investigation carried out by 16 newsrooms.Further complicating the ability of research to comprehend the health effects of PFAS is that new compounds are still being developed.As manufacturers phase out compounds identified as potentially hazardous, they sometimes simply replace it with another member of the PFAS family that has been studied less, researchers have warned.Harvard environmental researcher Elsie Sunderland has called this process "chemical whack-a-mole".
From polar bears to groundwater, nature is riddled with 'forever chemicals' - They didn't exist a century ago but today PFAS "forever chemicals" contaminate the environment from groundwater to Antarctic snow to turtle eggs, and concern over their possible toxicity is growing.Lawsuits and regulations targeting per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are multiplying, with France becoming the latest jurisdiction to consider tough new curbs on these long-life substances. On Thursday, a French legislator will introduce a bill to address what he calls the health "emergency" posed by exposure to PFAS in the environment. Widely used in everyday items, highly durable, and very slow to break down, PFAS have been detected in water, air, fish and soil in the remotest corners of the globe."No ecosystem has escaped," said Yann Aminot, a specialist in environmental contamination at the French Research Institute for Ocean Science (IFREMER).He spent six years examining tuna from the Indian and Pacific Oceans, dolphin livers from the Bay of Biscay, and samples from French oyster farms."I don't think I have ever seen a single sample free of perfluorinated contaminants," the researcher told AFP. These molecules—the best known of which gave birth to non-stick Teflon—were developed after World War II to give packaging, paints and coatings exceptional resistance to water or heat. This very quality turned out to be a particular problem for oceans, said Aminot."Being persistent compounds—which do not degrade and are mobile—they end up in the marine environment, which always ultimately is the receptacle for contamination," he said. A study published in January by the American Chemical Society, a nonprofit scientific organisation, said that PFAS had been detected in the Arctic Ocean at a depth of 3,000 feet (914 metres).IFREMER recently examined the diets of two fish—sea bass and sole—in the Seine estuary of France and discovered PFAS riddled throughout the food chain.From the tiny zooplankton eaten by shellfish, which are consumed by smaller fish and ultimately larger predators, PFAS lurked at every step along the way. A 2022 study in Australia established the transmission of PFAS from female turtles to their unborn offspring, while other research found traces in polar bear livers and birds, seals and other animals. A wealth of scientific research has demonstrated the pervasive reach of PFAS in nature, but possible harms to people and the planet have been harder to definitively establish.More than 20 years ago, a study in the US concluded that once inside the body PFAS may be able to reach the brain of vertebrates and affect the nervous system. Studies have since shown that exposure to some PFAS—there are at least 4,000chemical compounds in the family—may be linked to serious health effects in humans and animals. It is a subject of growing concern, with French ecologist and MP Nicolas Thierry asking lawmakers to ban PFAS from 2025 if alternatives exist.
New study flags alarmingly high levels of microplastics in Nigeria's Osun River - The Osun River is one of the major rivers in southern Nigeria. It flows from its source in Ekiti State, through several states, before emptying into Lagos state's Lekki Lagoon. It is an important source of water for the communities that live around it, whether for irrigation or for personal use. Part of its course is in Osun State, where it flows through the Osun-Osogbo sacred grove, a Unesco world heritage site. Osun worshippers visit the river to pray daily. Users of the Osun river need to be aware of a potential health hazard, however. In a recent study I conducted with colleagues, we found alarmingly high levels of microplastics in the Osun river. Our study found as many as 22,079 pieces of microplastic in just one liter of water. We compared this data with 267 global studies on microplastics in river water conducted since 1994 and discovered that the levels of microplastics in the Osun river exceeded those reported in any of those studies. This means that people using the Osun river's water are being exposed to high amounts of microplastics. High levels of microplastics are also being ingested by the river's fish. Microplastics have gained the attention of scientists globally in the last decade. This is due to their widespread presence in the environment and effects on wildlife and humans. Microplastics are tiny plastic particles (below 5mm in size) that result mostly from the slow breakdown of plastic waste in the environment. Some of them also reach the environment through personal care products—like facial scrubs, creams and toothpaste. Among other effects, microplastics block intestines of animals and kill over one million seabirds and 100,000 marine mammals yearly. They have also been found in human blood and placentas. The presence of microplastics in the environment has been fueled by the global increase in the production and use of plastics. The development of synthetic plastics in the first half of the 20th century spurred its production. From about 2 million tons of plastic in 1950, production increased to over 450 million tons by 2023. The International Union for Conservation of Nature estimates that at least 14 million tons of plastic reach marine environments yearly as waste. Africa contributes significantly to marine plastic pollution. Five countries on the continent (Nigeria, Egypt, Algeria, South Africa and Morocco) are among the world's top 20 contributors to global marine plastic pollution. Nigeria alone generates about 2.5 million tons of plastic waste annually. Only12% of this is recycled. The largely unrecycled waste material finds its way into the rivers and the ocean. To test the abundance of microplastics in the Osun river, we set up five sampling stations around the metropolis. Two of these were located upstream and outside the metropolis; two in the heart of the city; and one downstream on the outskirts. Samples of water and sediment (the soil below the river water) were taken at each of the stations.We found microplastics in every sample of water and sediments, and in every individual fish examined. The fish species are all edible and normally sold to the Nigerian public.Fifty-eight fish samples belonging to six different fish species were also caught from the river and the amount of microplastics present in their gastro-intestinal tracts was determined.Microplastics were present in every fish sample at values ranging from 407 to 1,691 particles per fish. These amounts are far above those reported in fishes from other rivers in Africa. For example, in the case of tilapia from the Nile River, the maximum found was 47 microplastics per fish. High microplastics concentrations ranging from 3,791 to 22,079 particles were found per liter of the water samples, and 392 to 1,590 particles per kilogram of the river sediments. The highest amount in the water (22,079 particles per liter) was measured close to the heart of the metropolis, where we also found many decaying plastic items in the river.The microplastics were of different colors: white, black, brown, yellow, blue, green, and red. However, black microplastics were the most abundant in both water and sediments. Spectroscopic analyses revealed that the black particles were mostly from polythene and nylon bags, commonly used as shopping bags in Nigeria. The detection of the polymer used in tire production also indicated that some of the black particles might have come from the wear and tear of car tires.
Mercury contamination rampant in Brazil Indigenous group: Study - Researchers in the Brazilian Amazon found universal mercury contamination among members of the Yanomami Indigenous group living in a region awash in illegal gold mining, said a study published Thursday, warning of devastating health impacts. The study, led by Brazilian public health institute Fiocruz, took hair samples and mouth swabs from 293 Yanomami in nine villages in the upper Mucajai river region in the northern state of Roraima. The region is among those hit hardest by illegal gold mining in the Yanomami reservation, a territory bigger than Portugal that is home to around 29,000 Indigenous people. The study, carried out in October 2022, found 100 percent of participants were contaminated with the toxic metal, including 84 percent with levels above the limit recommended by the World Health Organization, two micrograms per gram of hair. Another 10.8 percent had mercury levels above six micrograms per gram of hair, which requires special medical attention, the authors said. "This situation of vulnerability exponentially increases the risk of disease for children who live in the region," especially those under five, lead researcher Paulo Basta said in a statement. The Yanomami are suffering a devastating health crisis that experts say is driven by an explosion of illegal mining on their land.
Logging decline after political change in Brazil, Colombia - The number of trees lost in Brazil and Colombia was down “dramatically” in 2023 – falling by 39% – due to political action, reports BBC News. In Brazil, there was a 36% drop in primary forest losses in 2023, following Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva being elected president and promising to tackle tree losses and deforestation, it adds. This is particularly significant as, in 2022, Brazil was responsible for 43% of all tropical forest loss, the article notes. However, adds the outlet, “increased tree felling and fires in Bolivia, Laos and Nicaragua wiped out many of these gains”, concludes the annual study by the World Resources Institute (WRI). In 2023, 9.1m acres of primary tropical forest, equivalent to an area almost the size of Switzerland, was lost, reports the New York Times. While this was 9% less than in 2022, the “improvement failed to put the world on course to halt all forest loss by 2030, a commitment made by 145 nations at a global climate talks in Glasgow in 2021 and reaffirmed by all countries last year”, it notes.
Damage reported as severe weather outbreak rips across heartland - Severe storms began to erupt in the central U.S. Monday afternoon and continued throughout the night before spreading east on Tuesday morning. The storms have produced both large hail and damaging winds that caused damage Monday and Monday night from Texas to the lower Ohio Valley. According to local storm reports tallied by the National Weather Service, there were more than 40 reports of damaging winds or wind damage from Texas to Kentucky and over 60 reports of large hail from Texas to Ohio.The largest hail report was grapefruit-sized hail (4.5 inches) near Briar, Texas, while the highest wind report was an 88-mph gust near Albany, Texas. According to the NWS, hail the size of hen eggs was reported near Logan, Oklahoma. Wind-blown hail broke windows in Caney, Kansas. In Missouri, hail the size of golf balls was reported falling hard in Chesterfield for about 5 minutes. Baseball-sized hail was reported near the town of Nugent in Texas, while baseball-sized hail damaged vehicles and broke the windows of a home in Hawley, Texas. Video showed hail covering the ground in Boyd, Texas, on Monday evening.Wind damage has also been reported. According to the NWS, law enforcement nearSweetwater, Texas, reported multiple power poles had been knocked down. A roof was ripped off a home in Shackelford, Texas, near where the day's highest wind gust of 88 mph was recorded. Trees and power lines were blown down in Independence, Kentucky. In Missouri, trees were knocked down in the town of Westphalia.On Monday evening, Carthage, Missouri, reported damage around the historic downtown square from a possible tornado. The town was placed under a Tornado Warning about 9:30 p.m. CDT, warning of 70-mph winds and quarter-sized hail. Prior to hitting Carthage, the storm produced a 73-mph gust in Joplin, Missouri. Additionally, there were at least three reports of tornadoes in northeastern Oklahoma on Monday evening.According to the NWS, a tornado near Lenapah, Oklahoma, rolled over a tractor-trailer, trapping one person inside. Another tornado was reported near the town of Hominy, Oklahoma. Storm spotters near Bartlesville, Oklahoma, also reported a tornado crossing Highway 75.
Deadly storms and tornadoes leave a path of destruction from Georgia to Illinois | CNN — At least three people were killed and several were injured after a powerful storm system spawned tornadoes and damaging storms from the South to the Ohio Valley.Two people were killed by falling trees when storms swept through Pennsylvania on Wednesday, CNN affiliate WPVI reported. A 70-year-old man was killed in Aston Township after a tree fell on his vehicle, officials told WPVI. An 82-year-old woman was killed in Collegeville when a tree was uprooted from rain-soaked ground and fell on her car, the Collegeville Police Department confirmed to CNN. Mary Baker died after she was rescued from her vehicle, the police said.In Kentucky, at least one person was killed as a result of destructive storms there on Tuesday, Gov. Andy Beshear said. A man was killed in a car accident in Campbell County as brutal storms battered the state.No other deaths or injuries were reported in the state, Beshear said. “But listen, the loss of one life, and I believe this is a young man, is a tragic occurrence and we’ll be praying for him and his family,” Beshear said. The governor enacted a statewide a state of emergency Tuesday after the Lexington area saw “significant damage” from the storms.The storms also injured at least 10 people in Jeffersonville, Indiana, just north of Louisville, the town’s mayor told CNN affiliate WLKY. Photos posted by the mayor showed chunks taken out of several homes’ roofs and debris strewn about an area neighborhood.Severe thunderstorms brought “flooding, downed trees, power outages, and road blockages” across West Virginia, according to Gov. Jim Justice, who declared a state of emergency Tuesday for Fayette, Kanawha, Lincoln and Nicholas counties.At least 13 homes were damaged and some residents were injured, Fayette County, West Virginia, Office of Emergency Management director Kevin Walker told CNN. The injuries were non-life threatening, Walker said.“Some are destroyed, and some have major damage,” Walker said.Sixteen tornadoes were reported Tuesday and Wednesday morning across Illinois, Kentucky, Ohio, Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia, along with dozens of damaging wind reports, including gusts topping 100 mph in Kentucky.A tornado ripped through Conyers, Georgia, just southeast of Atlanta early Wednesday morning, downing power lines and causing damage there, according to CNN affiliate WXIA. The storm sent a tree smashing through a teen’s car and into his lap. The teen was rescued and taken to a hospital, WXIA reported.The National Weather Service office in Peachtree City said the twister was rated EF2, traveled approximately 9.5 miles and was 800 yards wide. Winds were as high as 115 mph.
Severe storms damage homes, cut off power to thousands of Americans across Ohio Valley - More than a dozen homes were damaged in one West Virginia community and more than 100,000 customers in the state were without power late Tuesday night as a powerful system of thunderstorms with damaging winds, dangerous hail and the potential for destructive tornadoes swept through parts of the Ohio Valley. At least 13 homes were damaged and some residents were injured, Fayette County, West Virginia, Office of Emergency Management director Kevin Walker told CNN. The injuries were non-life threatening, Walker said. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice declared a state of emergency Tuesday for Fayette County, as well as Kanawha, Lincoln and Nicholas counties, saying the storms brought “flooding, downed trees, power outages, and road blockages.” The storm system left behind a trail of damage in parts of Tennessee, too. In the city of Sunbright, pictures on social media show buildings with their roofs and sides entirely ripped off, and piles of wooden planks and debris littering surrounding streets. The first of these thunderstorms rumbled to life early Tuesday afternoon in portions of Missouri and Illinois. The storms pose the most significant threat for tornadoes so far this year, with parts of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana most at risk. Ohio hasn’t been warned of a tornado threat this substantial in more than 10 years, according to SPC data. It’s in this region where strong tornadoes could form and stay on the ground for several miles at a time. A tornado watch is in effect until 2 a.m. Wednesday for eastern Kentucky, southeastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania and West Virginia, according to the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center. “Severe thunderstorms including a few supercells are expected to steadily spread east-northeastward across the region through evening, including the potential for tornadoes aside from large hail and damaging winds,” the prediction center warned Tuesday. A first round of damaging storms rolled through the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning and knocked out power to thousands of homes and businesses, according to poweroutage.us. More than 250,000 customers remained in the dark Tuesday night across West Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Kentucky – the majority of whom are in West Virginia. Damaging winds of 40 to 60 mph battered much of the region and a 92 mph gust was reported in Huntington, West Virginia.
Severe weather outbreak produces tornadoes, damage from Ohio Valley to Southeast – After storms caused damage in the nation’s heartland Monday, Tuesday's severe weather outbreak turned deadly as it produced hundreds of reports of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.The first round of severe thunderstorms caused damage across the Ohio Valley during the morning, only to be followed by discrete supercells during the late afternoon and evening.One person was killed in a weather-related crash in Campbell County Tuesday, according to the Kentucky governor's office. The hardest-hit communities appeared to be along the Ohio River, where damage was reported to trees, power lines and buildings.Following the storm system, PowerOutage.us reported more than 250,000 electrical outages, with many in West Virginia. Early Tuesday morning, an 84-mph wind gust was reported near Evansville, Indiana. City officials reported significant storm damage throughout the city, particularly on the north side. In nearby Vanderburgh, Indiana, damage was caused to the city's Emergency Operations Center's roof. According to the National Weather Service, multiple instances of downed trees, power lines and damage to mobile homes were reported throughout the city. Additional strong winds and falling trees caused notable destruction in southern Boonville, Indiana, leading to roof and structural damage. Utility poles were also snapped in Chrisney, Indiana, due to the high winds. Emergency managers reported one person suffered minor injuries in Uniontown, Kentucky, when a tree fell onto a mobile home, according to the NWS office in Paducah, Kentucky. The states of Ohio and West Virginia experienced significant damage to various structures, causing widespread tree and power line damage. The Proctorville, Ohio, Fire Department building was destroyed, and several other structures suffered significant damage. Multiple structures in South Point, Ohio, were damaged, and there was widespread tree and power line damage. In Hanging Rock, Ohio, several trailers were flipped over. On Tuesday morning, there was a wind gust of 92 mph near Huntington, West Virginia, and a reported wind gust of 102 mph in Boyd County, Kentucky. These winds caused trees and power lines to fall and damaged several homes. The governors of Kentucky and West Virginia issued states of emergency ahead of the worst of the weather. Jeff Diederich, sheriff of Williamson County in Illinois, said a significant amount of property damage was reported in the county early Tuesday. He said the damage included downed trees and power lines. "We have residences that have significant trees across their roofs," Diederich told FOX Weather. "We have roofs that are missing in some isolated residential areas and then we have multiple businesses that are significantly damaged or completely destroyed. During the severe weather, several vehicles along Interstate 265 in southern Indiana outside of Louisville, Kentucky, were flipped during strong winds. Westbound lanes were blocked by the overturned vehicles as emergency crews responded to the scene. Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg announced a local state of emergency for Jefferson County, Kentucky, due to thousands of power outages, but no injuries were reported from the storms. An NWS storm survey team found damage consistent with at least an EF-1 tornado in Prospect, Kentucky, which is located in Jefferson and Oldham counties. It was one of at least five reported tornadoes in Kentucky. Additional NWS storm survey teams planned to fan out across West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky to check if other reported damage was the result of a tornado and if so, how strong, but flooding in the wake of the storms was keeping forecasters busy and may slow the survey process down until the flooding abates.
Flood waters peak in Pittsburgh as swollen Ohio River threatens towns in at least 5 states – The result of rounds of incessant rainfall over the Ohio Valley has resulted in major rivers swelling to above flood stage to levels not seen in several years as cities prepare for a long-term flood event. Many communities monitor the Ohio River, which forms where the Allegheny and Monongahela rivers merge in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. In Pittsburgh, a river gauge near Point State Park reported the Ohio River crested at 28.37 feet on Thursday morning – just shy of major flood stage, which is considered 28.5 feet. On Friday morning, levels dropped to 22.49 feet. While the river level was the highest since around Sept. 11, 2018, it stayed below levels where operations are impacted at PNC Park, home to Major League Baseball's Pittsburgh Pirates. According to Pittsburgh's National Weather Service office, the baseball stadium is usually flooded when water levels exceed 30 feet. The last time the river flooded PNC Park was during Hurricane Ivan on Sept. 18, 2004. Due to the high water levels, the city’s Department of Public Works has closed several parks and trails along river banks. "These areas will remain closed until the flood waters return to a safe level," public works stated. "Once safe, DPW crews will be dispatched to clean up flood debris, which may make the trail/park unsafe for residents. At this time, flood waters are not expected to recede until the weekend. Exact re-opening times will depend on water levels and present debris." Farther south in Parkersburg, West Virginia, city workers have installed flood gates as the river is expected to reach just short of major flood status by Friday morning. Based on the expected crest of nearly 41 feet, water is expected to inundate the town of Vienna, West Virginia, and several school districts that border the river have been closed. "Recent heavy rains have caused high water and flooding in some areas. As a result, Point Park and the Parkersburg Ohio River Trail (PORT) have been closed at all access points," the Parkersburg Police Department said. "Please, avoid these areas until the high waters have receded. Keep in mind even after the water recedes there will likely be large amounts of debris left behind. City crews will work as they always have to get it cleaned up as soon as possible." River gauges in Pomeroy, Powhatan Point and Marietta in Ohio are all expected to reach major flood status.
Ohio River set to crest after biggest flood in nearly 20 years - First responders and road crews are ready up and down the Ohio Valley as the wait begins for the mighty Ohio River to begin to recede. Officials pointed to Thursday evening as the time when the river will crest and fall back. Until then, residents and community officials along the river continue to deal with a cold, muddy mess. “This will be the largest flood in my tenure as chief of the Wheeling Police Department,” Wheeling Police Chief Shawn Schwertfeger said. Several homes, vehicles and roads are filled with water. The Wheeling Fire Department has brought in extra staff to help with the influx of issues. Wheeling Fire Chief Jim Blazier said residents who have flooded basements should contact dispatch because the department is making a list of those who need to need to have water pumped from their homes. “A lot of homes automatically drain once the water goes back down,” Blazier said. “We cannot beat the river. So, if water is coming in your basement, as it’s rising there’s no way we can pump it and keep it out of there.” Blazier also advised residents to not drive in high water. “We advise people not to drive through standing water period,” Blazier said. W.Va. 2 (River Road), just south of Warwood, has reopened after a large mudslide engulfed the road and power lines on Wednesday. While the river was expected to crest just below “major” flood stage in Wheeling, Ohio County EMA Director Lou Vargo said it’s still a very impactful event. “If you have water in your basement, it’s ‘major’ no matter how much it is,” Vargo said. Vargo stressed the importance of staying away from high water areas and refrain from getting close to sightsee or take photos. “The river is running fast, in addition to being high,” Vargo said. “We just want to keep everyone safe.” In Marshall County, homes and businesses near the river have taken on quite a bit of water. W.Va. 2 between Glen Dale and McMechen, commonly known as the narrows, was down to one lane northbound due to a slide. “The last time we had a crest like this was 2005,” Marshall County EMA Director Tom Hart said. “Of course, the second worst was 2004 when (the remnants) of Hurricane Ivan came through.” In Belmont County, the village of Powhatan Point was severely affected, with much of its downtown and parts of Ohio 7 consumed by water. “Basically, right now, we’re just waiting for the river to crest,” Mayor Jeff Haught said. “After that, we’ll, hopefully, have a quick recession. Pretty much from here on out it’s just waiting.”
Ohio River reaches major flood status along Ohio-West Virginia border - Rounds of incessant rainfall over the eastern Great Lakes have resulted in the Ohio River and its tributaries reaching major flood status, submerging streets and displacing some residents. While the river level in major cities such as Pittsburgh and Cincinnati was expected to peak below major flood status, towns such as Marietta, Ohio and Parkersburg, West Virginia, were not as fortunate, with local residents saying it’s the highest they’ve seen the river in decades. According to a water level gauge in Marietta, Ohio, the Ohio River crested at major flood status, with the level rising to 40.07 feet on Friday. Drone video and photos showed significant flooding in the commercial district, with town officials saying recovery will be a long process. "Cleanup began early this morning. Again, please be patient. This is a long process. Give crews time to get the roads safe for traffic again," the town posted on Facebook. States of emergency were in effect for counties both on the Ohio and West Virginia sides, as the water showed no mercy for state boundaries. Significant flooding was also reported in the towns of Parkersburg and Wheeling in West Virginia. Drone video showed floodwater entering homes and businesses around a community known as Wheeling Island. A nearby NOAA water gauge reported the river peaked at around 44.71 feet on Friday, which was the highest level since 2021. The local fire department said Wheeling's operations division was planning to work through the weekend to clean mud and debris from flooded streets. The Wheeling-Ohio County Health Department was offering free tetanus shots as the floodwater may be contaminated with sewage and other pollutants. At least one death has been attributed to the flooding in West Virginia. The Wood County Sheriff’s Department said a woman died Thursday after her SUV crashed into a flooded waterway near the town of Davisville. Officials in the greater Cincinnati area are preparing for the Ohio River to rise to at least minor flood stage by Monday. Some parks along the river’s edge are closed, and the city’s public works department has put a barrier dam in place to prevent flooding along one of its many tributaries. A much-anticipated post-game fireworks display after a match between the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets was canceled Friday due to impacts with barge traffic on the river. Expected water levels are forecast to remain well below the record high of 80 feet set back in 1937. The NWS reports the historic 1937 flood killed 350 people and left 1 million homeless from Point Pleasant, West Virginia, to the merger with the Mississippi River in Cario, Illinois.
Zimbabwe declares El Nino drought a national disaster - Zimbabwe declared drought a national disaster on Wednesday, with President Emmerson Mnangagwa saying the country needs $2 billion in aid to help millions of people who are going hungry. A severe dry spell induced by the El Niño weather pattern is wreaking havoc across southern Africa. "No Zimbabwean must succumb or die from hunger," Mnangagwa told a press conference. "To that end, I do hereby declare a nationwide State of Disaster, due to the El Niño-induced drought." Due to poor rains, more than 2.7 million people will not have enough food to put on the table this year, he warned. This season's grain harvest was expected to bring in just over half of the cereals needed to feed the nation, he said. The naturally occurring El Niño climate pattern, which emerged in mid-2023, usually increases global temperatures for one year afterwards. It is currently fueling fires and record heat across the world. In southern Africa, Zimbabwe is the third country to declare drought a national disaster after Malawi and Zambia. The measure allows for more resources to address the crisis. The drought has also affected electricity production, as Zimbabwe is highly reliant on hydroelectric power. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the latest El Niño is one of the five strongest ever recorded and its impact will continue by fueling heat trapped in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases. El Niño reached a peak in December but should still result in above-normal temperatures until May over almost all land areas, the WMO said. Major food growing areas in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe received only 80 percent of average rainfall during the mid-November-to-February southern hemisphere summer, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said, stressing an increased risk of food insecurity. Rainfall in January and February was the lowest in 40 years, according to the UN. Zimbabwe's UN resident coordinator Edward Kallon said efforts were underway to mobilize resources and finalize a response plan. "This crisis has far-reaching consequences across various sectors," Kallon said. The drought has driven many people to use unsafe water sources, fueling cholera outbreaks already afflicting several southern African countries, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. El Niño is also forecast to bring heavy rains and flooding in the coming months, heightening the risk of malaria and other diseases. Meanwhile, unable to source grain from traditional suppliers in Zambia and Malawi, Zimbabwean millers have been importing GMO maize from South Africa. But climate and agriculture expert Tafadzwa Mabhaudhi of South Africa's University of KwaZulu-Natal, said the country also had limited surplus to export to its neighbors. "Importing maize also means food price increases, which will impact the food security of poor people, who were already struggling to afford healthy diets," he told AFP. Last month, small scale Zimbabwean farmers in affected areas told AFP they were already struggling to to feed their families, after their crops failed and food prices skyrocketed.
La Niña Forecasted To Fuel Explosive Atlantic Hurricane Season - Hurricane season doesn't start until June 1st—or about two months from today, April 1st. Weather forecasters have already warned that the Atlantic Hurricane season could be super active, and that's a major problem for anyone trying to plan a vacation in the Bahamas later this year or operators of offshore oil/gas wells across the Gulf of Mexico. "The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct US impacts," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva said.DaSilva explained: "Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and the Main Development Region [for hurricanes]." Besides the very warm Atlantic Ocean water temperatures adding fuel to the fire, the development of La Niña (read: "The Coming Collapse Of El Nino And Flip To La Nina") in the Pacific results in less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, over most of the Atlantic basin, which means tropical systems will form more easily. All three Atlantic hurricane seasons, 2020, 2021, and 2023, La Niña was present and featured well above the 30-year historical average of 14 named storms. DaSilva forecasts 20-25 named storms across the Atlantic basin in 2024, including 8-12 hurricanes. He expects four to seven major hurricanes and four to six storms to land on the Gulf and East Coast.
Powerful earthquake rocks Taiwan, buildings seen collapsed, causes tsunami warning in Japan - An earthquake rocked the entire island of Taiwan early Wednesday, killing four, injuring dozens, collapsing buildings in a southern city and sparking a brief tsunami warning for southern Japanese islands. Taiwan's fire department said four people have died in the mountainous, sparsely populated eastern county of Hualien, where the earthquake's epicenter was located. More than 50 people were injured in the incident. At least 26 buildings have collapsed, with more than half in the city of Hualien. About 20 people were trapped as rescue work continues, the government said. Video and images on social media showed buildings shaken off their foundations. A five-story building in lightly populated Hualien appeared heavily damaged, collapsing its first floor and leaving the rest leaning at a 45-degree angle. In the capital, Taipei, tiles fell from older buildings and within some newer office complexes. The U.S. Geological Survey put the 9.6 mile quake at a 7.5 magnitude, while Taiwan’s earthquake monitoring agency gave it a magnitude of 7.7, up from 7.5 earlier. The effects of the earthquake were felt as far away as Kinmen, a Taiwanese-controlled island off the coast of China, said Wu Chien-fu, the head of Taiwan's earthquake monitoring bureau. A tsunami warning was issued for coastal areas of southwestern Japan's Miyakojima and Yaeyama regions and the main island of Okinawa, Japanese public broadcaster NHK World reported. Waves had reached some areas and were more than 9 feet high. Train service across the island of 23 million people was suspended. In Taipei, children were seen going to school and the morning commute appeared normal. The U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center initially said it was reviewing the earthquake to determine whether a tsunami was a threat to the West Coast states of California, Oregon and Washington, as well as Alaska and the Canadian province of British Columbia. "Tsunami NOT expected," the agency posted on X minutes later. Hawaii's Emergency Management Agency also said there was no tsunami threat to the state. The quake was believed to be the biggest in Taiwan since a temblor in 1999 caused extensive damage. Taiwan lies along the Pacific "Ring of Fire," a line of seismic faults encircling the Pacific Ocean where most of the world's earthquakes occur.
Taiwan hit by strong quake as tsunami threat recedes in Japan, Philippines Taiwan has been rocked by its biggest earthquake in a quarter-century, with the above-7 magnitude tremor killing at least seven people, injuring more than 700, and triggering tsunami warnings that passed without damage or causalities. The earthquake on Wednesday shook buildings off their foundations and caused landslides in the eastern part of the island. Dozens of buildings in the eastern city of Hualien collapsed. Taiwanese fire safety officials said at least seven people were killed in Hualien County, including three hikers and one engineering worker struck by falling rocks while in a trail, and more than 700 others were injured. Rescue teams were working to free at least 77 people believed to be trapped in rubble or needing rescue, according to the Taiwanese news channel SETN. The fire safety agency said that at least 1,103 earthquake-related incidents were reported in various counties and cities across the island. In the capital, Taipei, vehicles pulled over on the side of the road and the city’s subway service was briefly suspended, while tiles were thrown from older buildings and furniture was knocked over with the force of the earthquake. A series of aftershocks were felt in the capital about 15 minutes later and continued over the next hour. Taiwanese authorities said aftershocks could continue for the next three to four days due to the earthquake’s intensity. Stacy Liu, a Chinese teacher in Taipei who was teaching a class online when the earthquake struck, said it revived childhood memories of Taiwan’s worst quake in recent memory in 1999 when more than 2,400 people were killed. “I thought it was just going to be a small earthquake at first, but then it definitely became a lot more violent than I’m used to. We have a sliding glass door which is the entry to our balcony and apartment, and it swung open, which I did not know was possible,” Phan-Stattmen told Al Jazeera. Wu Chien-fu, the director of Taipei’s Seismological Center, said the earthquake, estimated at between 7.2 and 7.7 in magnitude, was the strongest to hit the island since the 1999 quake. “The earthquake is close to land and it’s shallow. It’s felt all over Taiwan and offshore islands,” Wu told reporters. Taiwan’s earthquake alert system, which typically provides warnings minutes in advance, did not activate before the quake. After tsunami warnings in Taiwan, Japan and the Philippines, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii, the United States, said late on Tuesday that the threat had “passed”. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JAM) lifted all tsunami advisories after earlier urging residents in Okinawa Island, Miyakojima Island and Yaeyama Island to evacuate amid warnings of waves of up to 3 metres (9.8 feet) high. The agency said a wave measuring about 0.3 metres (1 foot) high was detected on the coast of Yonaguni Island about 15 minutes after the earthquake. Okinawa’s main airport suspended flights following the alert. The Philippine seismology agency cancelled its alert after warning that coastal areas would experience “high tsunami waves”. Taiwan lies on a tectonic belt, known as the Pacific “Ring of Fire”, where about 90 percent of all earthquakes occur. The self-governed island has strict building regulations and disaster awareness programmes to reduce casualties from earthquakes.
How Taiwan managed to keep its death toll so low during the 7.4-magnitude earthquake -A 7.4 magnitude earthquake has rocked the east coast of Taiwan—the largest the island nation has seen in more than 25 years. The death toll as of Thursday stands at 10, with more than 900 injured and dozens more missing. The powerful initial quake set off tsunami warnings in Japan, China and the Philippines. For a region so densely populated, the number of recorded deaths is remarkably small compared to the strength of the earthquake—a testament to the country's disaster preparedness, says Daniel Aldrich, a Northeastern professor, director of the university's Security and Resilience Program and co-director at the Global Resilience Institute. "What we're seeing here is a combination of a 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' governance culture that has kept the death toll relatively low," Aldrich tells Northeastern Global News. "The government has long recognized the threat from seismic risks and invested in a variety of measures like, for example, very strict building codes." In disaster preparedness, "top-down" means that officials update and enforce building codes; make plans—such as evacuation shelters, food and water distribution, among others—in expectation of future shocks; and allocate resources, such as ensuring hospitals and medical personnel are well-equipped in event of a shock. "Bottom-up" means communities work together, trust each other and plan for shocks—mapping out evacuations and deciding who needs help based on their local needs. Aldrich says the best approach to managing and preparing for disasters combines both concepts "for a well-rounded strategy." The earthquake was recorded roughly 15 miles south of Hualien county just before 8 a.m. local time. Officials recorded 76 aftershocks in less than five hours, according to the Central Weather Administration. "I went and looked back at Haiti, India and China, all of which had earthquakes of a very similar magnitude," he says. "And in the middle of all those, Haiti lost 220,000 people; India, 15,000 people; and China, 90,000 people." Rescue personnel are working to free dozens of people who are trapped, reports say. "You see many people, for example, in evacuation shelters," he says. "It's clear they knew where to go. You don't see people trying to go back and get items out of very dangerously balanced buildings, or partially collapsed buildings. They trusted the information that they were getting from the government and they worked with their neighbors collectively to try and help and save people. So that combination of a top-down governance structure, which takes disaster risk seriously, and the bottom-up structure, has created an outcome for Taiwan that is just incredible, really."
Magnitude 4.8 earthquake hits New York City region (Reuters) - A 4.8-magnitude earthquake struck near New York City on Friday morning, the U.S. Geological Survey said, shaking buildings up and down the East Coast and surprising residents in an area that rarely experiences notable seismic activity. The quake's epicenter was in Tewksbury in central New Jersey, about 40 miles (64 kilometers) west of New York City. It occurred just after 10:20 a.m. ET (1420 GMT) at a depth of 4.7 kilometers (2.9 miles), the USGS said. No major damage was reported, but New York Governor Kathy Hochul warned of the possibility of aftershocks at a news conference. Engineering teams are inspecting roads and bridges. "This is one of the largest earthquakes on the East Coast in the last century," she said. New York City Mayor Eric Adams said at a news conference that no injuries had been reported but urged city residents to take cover under furniture, in a doorway or next to an interior wall if they feel any aftershocks. "New Yorkers should go about their normal day," he said. People from Baltimore to Boston reported feeling rumbling and shaking, with some running outside to try to detect the source. James Pittinger, mayor of Lebanon, New Jersey, near the quake's epicenter, said there were no reports of injuries or significant damage but that people were unnerved. "I was sitting in my home office when things started to fall off the walls and shelves," Pittinger said. "It was a crazy experience." Flights were held at area airports in the aftermath of the earthquake but had resumed by 12:30 p.m., according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Residual delays were expected. Friday's tremor was the largest felt in the city since the 2011 5.8-magnitude earthquake in Virginia that prompted evacuations of City Hall and other buildings and caused damage in Washington.
Insurance trends are deciding where Americans will live as planet heats - Climate change and generations of U.S. housing and development policy are making homes, neighborhoods and entire municipalities riskier to insure, undermining the ability of Americans to live where they choose. The current face of this crisis is a nationwide withdrawal by the insurance industry from regions threatened by wildfires and hurricanes, particularly along the Gulf Coast and California. While there are other factors at play, this retreat is largely driven by the collision of climate change with long-term federal decisions to incentivize ever more expensive homes in riskier areas. But insurance is just one manifestation of a larger problem, experts told The Hill, a canary in the coal mine offering a warning of more significant dangers rising out of sight. And in a country whose economy is among the most unequal in the rich West, the cost of that danger falls increasingly on those least able to bear it. A record number of billion-plus dollar weather disasters hit the U.S. in 2023, with 28 such incidents costing nearly $100 billion collectively, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The previous record was set in 2020 at 22 disasters with 10-digit tabs.The scale of these disasters, however, is only partly a result of climate change. In a world where America’s coastlines were dominated by wetlands and mangrove swamps, its conifer forests were burned regularly in low-intensity blazes and its housing stock was built with an eye toward resilience, these numbers would be far lower.But state, federal and local governments have for decades incentivized both large-scale suppression of low-intensity fires and booming high-dollar coastal real estate, often on barrier islands. Those trends have left more people — and more insured home value — in the way of worsening fires, floods and storms. The home insurance industry has lost money every year for the past five, according to a March report by the insurance rating site AM Best, part of a broader crisis in the industry.In the broader category of personal insurance, the industry suffered three consecutive years of losses in excess of $20 billion. “That’s why you see companies pulling back and retrenching — because they’re suffering enormous losses,” Robert Gordon, a senior vice president at the American Property and Casualty Insurance Association, told The Hill. When insurance companies face rising risk, they have a few options: They can raise deductibles, raise rates, cut the riskiest homeowners from their rolls, or exit a state entirely.Increasingly, they are doing all of the above — with the state exits being the most dramatic.Last month, State Farm announced it would not renew insurance policies for 72,000 California houses and apartments, about 2 percent of its total policies in California. That announcement followed the company’s May 2023 decision to stop writing new policies in the state, citing “rapidly growing catastrophe exposure,” a move that was echoed by Allstate and American International Group. To the insurance industry, California is a particularly difficult market: a state where a wave of high-dollar development in increasingly fire-prone hinterlands has led to rapidly increasing risks, and therefore insurance costs. And state policies intended to protect consumers mean insurance companies often must wait up to a year to raise rates, and another year for them to take effect. But the problem goes far beyond California. State Farm’s March retreat followed the Februarywithdrawal of Texas-based American National from nine extreme weather-prone states, including California, Colorado, Louisiana and the Dakotas. In Louisiana, more than 20 insurance companies have gone insolvent or left the state since 2020. Florida has lost more than 30, and there are signs that skyrocketing premiums areleading homeowners to depart the state. And while no insurers have yet left Texas, premiums are soaring in the wake of disasters. In these cases, too, the industry points to other compounding factors — in particular, Florida’s and Louisiana’s unusually high rate of litigation over insurance claims. “We are marching steadily towards an uninsurable future in a number of places across the United States,” Dave Jones, former California insurance commission director, said last year.That’s a worrying development, because when an area is uninsurable, “it becomes uninhabitable,” Anne Perrault, senior finance policy council at Public Citizen, told The Hill.Taxpayers foot the bill for the increasingly common disaster supplementals, which are made more expensive by the continuing trend of higher-dollar houses in ever riskier areas.In states such as Texas, California, Louisiana and Florida, homeowners who can’t find insurance elsewhere can turn to state-run ‘insurers of last resort’, which offer guaranteed — but more expensive — coverage.And because those agencies can’t say no to homeowners, the cost of insuring the riskiest properties is effectively socialized, with the cost of insuring a second home on the shifting sand of a barrier island borne by those inland. For the banks and the federal agencies that regulate them, the downstream risk is that a crash in insurance value will lead to a wave of mortgage delinquencies and declines in home prices. It’s also difficult for federal officials to gauge the collective risk the U.S. faces, because insurances companies are regulated by the states. While the Treasury Department is beginning the process of putting together a nationwide picture, it has faced resistance from the states — despite its rising risk, Louisiana officials told The Hill they are sitting the call out — and from companies themselves.
Long-duration M9.4 solar flare erupts from Region 3615 - A long-duration solar flare measuring M9.4 erupted from Active Region 3615 (beta-gamma-delta) at 21:16 UTC on March 30, 2024. The event started at 21:01 and ended at 22:15 UTC. There were no radio signatures that would suggest a strong coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Even if it was, the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the W United States and the Pacific Ocean. Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels, with a slight chance (15%) for X-class flares, on March 31 primarily due to the flare potential of Region 3615 currently rotating around the W limb. R1 or greater events become unlikely on March 1 and 2 as the few sunspots remaining on the visible disk are relatively simple and stable. A slight chance for S1 – Minor solar radiation storms will persist through March 31 primarily due to the flare potential and location of Region 3615. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through April 2. Solar wind enhancements from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) are likely to continue through April 2. Another weak enhancement from the periphery of a CME that left the Sun on March 26 is possible on March 31. The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated periods of active conditions, over the next three days.
Africa's carbon sink capacity is shrinking -- The population of Africa, the second-largest continent in the world, currently sits at about 1.4 billion, but is set to exceed 2 billion by 2040. This means greater swaths of land than ever before are being used for agriculture, and livestock numbers are increasing. A new estimate of Africa's greenhouse gas budget between 2010 and 2019 quantifies just how much these changes in land use have affected Africa's role in the global carbon cycle. The research is published in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles.To make their estimates, Yolandi Ernst and colleagues followed the budget assessment protocol laid out by the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) initiative. They took a comprehensive look at all major potential carbon sources, including human sources such as agriculture and fossil fuel emissions and natural sources such as termites and wildfires. They also considered natural sinks: the grasslands, savannas, and forests that still cover much of the continent.The team found that between 2010 and 2019, Africa transitioned from being a slight net carbon sink to a slight net carbon source. Overall, they estimated that Africa was a source of 4.5 petagrams, or 4.5 billion metric tons, of carbon dioxide equivalents per year (a unit that represents the global warming potential of all greenhouse gases) during that period. And that number is likely to increase ifcurrent trends continue.Key factors in the rise of greenhouse gases include fossil fuel burning, methane emissions from livestock, and soil carbon losses and nitrous oxide emissions as land is converted for agricultural use. Natural ecosystems continue to act as carbon sinks across the region and are absorbing about a third of what human activities are emitting to the atmosphere. The authors conclude that switching to carbon-neutral fuels could eliminate up to 30% of anthropogenic emissions. However, as demand for food production increases, this progress could be offset by the continued rise in converting land for agriculture.The authors note that gathering more data on Africa and developing models specific to the continent are important to decrease the uncertainty of estimates. They also recommend a focus on climate-smart agricultural practices, as well as investments that address socioeconomic challenges while still preserving nature across Africa.
Only 57 producers are responsible for 80% of all fossil fuel and cement CO₂emissions since 2016: Report -Just 57 companies and nation states were responsible for generating 80% of the world's CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels and cement over the last seven years, according to a new report released by the thinktank InfluenceMap. This finding suggests that net zero targets set by the Paris climate change agreement in 2015 are yet to make a significant impact on fossil fuel production.The report uses the Carbon Majors database, established in 2013 by Richard Heede of the Climate Accountability Institute, to provide fossil fuel production data from 122 of the world's largest oil, gas, coal and cement producers.The InfluenceMap report tells a sobering but informative story of the state of production in these high-emitting industries. Cement and fossil fuel production has reached unprecedented levels, with most of the emission growth traceable to a relatively small number of large companies.The troubling reality is that the lack of progress of these large fossil fuel companies means the world will need to undertake ever more stringent and steep decarbonization trajectories if countries are to meet the Paris agreement goal of keeping warming well below 2°C.The Carbon Majors database highlights how critical it is for companies and countries to be held accountable for their lack of progress on emission reductions. Companies need to define exactly how best to align with the Paris goals, and then monitor and track their progress.To address this need, our team of researchers from the Universities of Queensland, Oxford and Princeton developed a framework that outlines strict science-based requirements for tracking the progress of companies against Paris-aligned pathways.By applying this framework to the Carbon Majors database in a follow-up study, our team mapped production budgets for 142 fossil fuel companies against several Paris-aligned global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.We considered the "middle-of-the-road" future scenario whereby business carries on as usual—this is commonly used by investors to evaluate a company's climate risks. With this scenario, we found that between 2014 and 2020, the coal, oil and gas companies produced 64%, 63% and 70% respectively more than their budgets allow. Further details can be found on the Are You Paris Compliant? website.Over the seven-year period covered by the InfluenceMap report, nation states and state-owned companies are responsible for most of this growth. It is not yet clear whether such government-run companies will move towards improved reporting against climate standards, but further interventions by governments will clearly be required to meet stated national emission-reduction goals.
Majority of CO2 emissions linked to 57 producers and countries, report says - The “vast majority” of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions released since 2016 can be traced to a group of 57 fossil fuel and cement producers, reports Reuters. The newswire adds that the group of nearly 60 entities, which include nation-states, state-owned firms and investor-owned companies, produced 80% of the world’s CO2 emissions between 2016 and 2022, according to the Carbon Majors report by non-profit thinktank InfluenceMap. Despite governments pledging to cut emissions under the Paris Agreement, the analysis finds that “most mega-producers” have increased their output of fossil fuels and other related emissions in the seven years following the agreement, when compared to the seven before, reports the Guardian. Within the thinktank’s database of 122 of the world’s biggest historical climate polluters, the researchers found that 65% of state entities and 55% of private-sector companies had increased production, it adds. Since 2016, state-owned companies accounted for 37% of CO2 emissions, while investor-owned accounted for 25%, reports Axios. Of the state-owned companies, Saudi Aramco was the biggest with a global share of 4.8% of CO2 emissions since 2016; then Gazprom and the National Iranian Oil Company, it continues. Of the investor-owned companies, Chevron, ExxonMobil and BP had the biggest share of CO2 emissions, it adds. Separately, governments and private investors will need to pay $3.5tn a year to tackle climate change, an ex-BP boss has warned, reports the Times. Lord Browne of Madingley, who ran the oil giant from 1995 to 2007, tells the publication that the world is on the edge of an “energy transformation that will take us from climate crisis into a new era of climate correction”. The amount of money needed to limit warming to 2C is “huge” but “achievable” and could be used to encourage emerging markets to use clean power to fuel their economic growth, he adds.
Can We Engineer Our Way Out of the Climate Crisis? - NYTimes -On a windswept Icelandic plateau, an international team of engineers and executives is powering up an innovative machine designed to alter the very composition of Earth’s atmosphere.If all goes as planned, the enormous vacuum will soon be sucking up vast quantities of air, stripping out carbon dioxide and then locking away those greenhouse gases deep underground in ancient stone — greenhouse gases that would otherwise continue heating up the globe.Just a few years ago, technologies like these, that attempt to re-engineer the natural environment, were on the scientific fringe. They were too expensive, too impractical, too sci-fi. But with the dangers from climate change worsening, and the world failing to meet its goals of slashing greenhouse gas emissions, they are quickly moving to the mainstream among both scientists and investors, despite questions about their effectiveness and safety.Researchers are studying ways to block some of the sun’s radiation. They are testing whether adding iron to the ocean could carry carbon dioxide to the sea floor. They are hatching plans to build giant parasols in space. And with massive facilities like the one in Iceland, they are seeking to reduce the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air. As the scale and urgency of the climate crisis has crystallized, “people have woken up and are looking to see if there’s any miraculous deus ex machina that can help,” said Al Gore, the former vice president.
Carbon capture project sparks concern in rural Illinois - Safety concerns are at the heart of opposition to a proposed carbon dioxide pipeline in central Illinois, which would connect an ethanol plant to a proposed sequestration site about six miles away. The pipeline proposed by One Earth Energy is much shorter than carbon dioxide pipelines that were previously proposed in Illinois and then tabled by Navigator CO2 Ventures and Wolf Carbon Solutions. Those pipelines would have stretched through hundreds of miles of farmland. But One Earth’s proposed pipeline starts just west of downtown Gibson City, at the company’s ethanol plant. Local leaders say county and city emergency responders, relying largely on volunteer firefighters, are ill-equipped to prepare for possible leaks or ruptures. Ford County Emergency Management Agency and Local Emergency Planning Committee coordinator Terry Whitebird says the county cannot afford to do the necessary training and planning for a potential disaster and evacuation, as noted in testimony filed with the Illinois Commerce Commission, which will hold public hearings in May on the company’s request for a necessary certificate of authority. It also cannot afford to buy electric municipal vehicles that could be necessary during a carbon dioxide leak, since gas and diesel vehicles can fail when the heavy gas displaces oxygen needed for combustion. That means ambulances and other emergency vehicles could be stalled just when they are needed to help rescue or evacuate residents. Whitebird also noted that the local hospital has only eight patient rooms and one emergency physician on call, meaning it could be overwhelmed in case of a carbon dioxide leak. The next closest hospitals, in Bloomington and Champaign, are each 40 minutes away. Opponents of carbon dioxide pipelines often point to a 2020 disaster in the tiny village of Satartia, Mississippi, where a Denbury Resources pipeline rupture and explosion left people sickened and struggling to breathe. At least 45 people were hospitalized, and some report lasting health impacts. Whitebird envisioned a similar disaster unfolding in Gibson City, which has a much larger population of 3,400. “The wind in this area is generally from west to east, and any leak or rupture will likely result in the CO2 gas drifting into Gibson City — a potential exposure of 25% of the population of the County,” says Whitebird’s testimony before the commerce commission.
Bill Text: OH HB358 | 135th General Assembly -- As Introduced 135th General Assembly Regular Session H. B. No. 358 - A BILL To declare the General Assembly's intent to regulate carbon capture and storage technologies and the geologic sequestration of carbon dioxide for long-term storage. BE IT ENACTED BY THE GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE STATE OF OHIO: Section 1. The General Assembly declares its intent to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework to ensure the safe and secure deployment of carbon capture and storage technologies in the state, which encompass point-source carbon dioxide capture from large emissions sources and direct air capture, and the geologic sequestration for long-term carbon dioxide storage into reservoirs of geologic formations.
The EPA wanted to clean up steel mills. Then a group of Rust Belt senators got involved. --In early March, a small group of Democratic senators from the Rust Belt sent President Joe Biden an urgent letter. They began by extolling the benefits of two of the Biden administration’s biggest achievements, the bipartisan infrastructure law and the Inflation Reduction Act, calling them “historic investments in our nation’s infrastructure” that will ring in a brighter future for American manufacturing. But there was something, they cautioned, that threatened to hamper this progress: the Environmental Protection Agency’s planned regulations for integrated iron and steel mills, proposed last July and nearing a court-ordered deadline.“We are concerned that the EPA’s proposed integrated steel rules will do what foreign competitors have thus far been unable to do: deter and diminish continued American investment in improving our steel industry,” wrote the five senators, among them Joe Manchin of West Virginia and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. They claimed the regulations would cost companies billions, enough to force widespread layoffs, despitethe EPA’s estimate of $7.1 million in costs for the two companies, U.S. Steel and Cleveland-Cliffs, that own all 10 of the country’s steel mills.Shortly after the senators sent off the letter, the EPA unveiled its final rule, the first time the agency has ever attempted to cut emissions from leaks and equipment malfunctions at steel mills. The EPA expects the new regulations will cut particle pollution by 473 tons every year. But the final rule is weaker than the one it proposed in 2023. Whereas the agency had originally planned to slash steel mills’ toxic emissions by 79 tons per year, a 15 percent decrease overall, the final version is expected to cut emissions by 64 tons each year. The EPA also dropped a proposed limit on the thickness of the smoke emanating from mills’ doors and roof vents. Jim Pew, a senior attorney at Earthjustice who has litigated multiple lawsuits against the agency for its failure to curb steel mill pollution, told Grist that the regulations will have “real benefits” for the people living in the shadows of the country’s most polluting steel mills, but lamented the safeguards that were removed. “It’s a small step in the right direction,” he said, noting that the EPA had furnished the final rule with a standard to regulate a type of incinerator used by some highly polluting mills. “The steel companies mounted a real disinformation campaign about the cost of the rule that I think put pressure on EPA to take out some provisions that would have been beneficial.”The new rule gives the country’s steel companies two years to update their facilities with the requisite emission reduction equipment and workplace standards. In an email, an EPA spokesperson said the agency had “carefully considered the stakeholder feedback and made data-driven modifications in the final rule that provide needed flexibility, while also providing health protections for surrounding communities.”
California leads US emissions of sulfuryl fluoride: State emits more than rest of country combined, study finds - California, a state known for its aggressive greenhouse gas reduction policies, is ironically the nation's greatest emitter of one: sulfuryl fluoride. As much as 17% of global emissions of this gas, a common pesticide for treating termites and other wood-infesting insects, stem from the United States. The majority of those emissions trace back to just a few counties in California, finds a new study led by Johns Hopkins University."When we finally mapped it out, the results were puzzling because the emissions were all coming from one place," said co-author Scot Miller, an assistant professor of environmental health and engineering at Johns Hopkins who studies greenhouse gases and air pollutants."Other greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane are found everywhere across the U.S. On our sulfuryl fluoride map, only California lit up like a Christmas tree." Miller and lead author Dylan Gaeta, a Ph.D. candidate at Johns Hopkins, analyzed more than 15,000 air samples collected between 2015 and 2019 by NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory scientists. The researchers factored in wind speed, direction, and other meteorological variables to trace the chemicals back to their point of origin. The findings are published in Communications Earth & Environment.The team found 60–85% of sulfuryl fluoride emissions in the U.S. come from California, primarily Los Angeles, Orange, and San Diego counties, despite California being a national leader in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including publishing a comprehensive plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2045."We can now show not only where but also how and why this gas is being emitted," Gaeta said. "In order to get to net-zero emissions, we need a complete inventory of what greenhouse gases are out there."First approved by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for use as a pesticide in 1959, sulfuryl fluoride gained popularity after countries around the world agreed to phase out more reactive fumigants that were depleting theozone layer, the researchers said.Because California has kept thorough records of pesticide use, the team was able to attribute the vast majority, roughly 85% of the state's sulfuryl fluoride emissions, to structural fumigation—the practice of sealing an infested structure with an airtight tent, pumping gas into the tent to eradicate the pests, and afterward venting the gas directly into the atmosphere. Roughly 15% came from agricultural and commodities fumigation.Once emitted, the gas spreads and stays for more than 40 years in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming by trapping heat and sending it back down to the Earth's surface, the researchers said. Average concentrations of sulfuryl fluoride in the atmosphere are low; however, humans have been emitting the man-made gas for decades at a rate faster than it can break down naturally. "Without some form of intervention, sulfuryl fluoride is going to keep accumulating in our atmosphere." Sulfuryl fluoride is one of the few treatments to rid buildings of drywood termites, a common regional pest that can form colonies in high, hard-to-reach parts of wooden structures. It's also used at shipping ports to kill pests before they can hitch a ride to other parts of the world. "It really is a double-edged sword. Sulfuryl fluoride is less harmful than the banned fumigants, but it also contributes to global warming,"
Not everyone in the hydrogen business wants to see weaker rules for federal tax credits - The term “clean energy” often brings to mind gleaming solar panels, spinning wind turbines or water surging through a hydroelectric dam. Few people would imagine dark salt caverns a mile underground, but these geologic formations could play a key role in the development of emissions-free green hydrogen. Hy Stor Energy wants to use such salt caverns in Mississippi and elsewhere to store hydrogen made by splitting water molecules with electrolysis powered by new renewable energy. The fuel could then be stored in the caverns until electricity demand spikes and then used to generate emissions-free electricity when other renewables can’t meet demand. Hy Stor Energy is among the companies that supports proposed rules for a potentially lucrative federal tax credit for “green” hydrogen fuel production. These companies provide a counterpoint to power companies and other industry players who are pressuring the government to relax provisions that demand green hydrogen production does not use existing renewable or nuclear power that would otherwise be used on the grid. Companies, including members of federally funded hydrogen hubs, have argued that under the proposed rules governing the tax credit known as 45V, not enough hydrogen will be produced to meet demand and help develop a zero-emission economy. But environmental advocates and academics point to studies showing that hydrogen production without stringent rules can actually lead to emissions increases. They, along with some industry sources, are calling on the U.S. Treasury Department to enshrine proposed requirements that hydrogen receiving tax credits meet “three pillars”: The renewable energy used to power electrolysis must be newly added to the grid, known as incrementality or additionality; it must be generated near the hydrogen plant, known as deliverability; and it must be generated around the same time it is used, known as hourly matching. “Without the right rules in place, you’re going to see companies try to make as much hydrogen as possible, since the 45V tax credit is so lucrative,” said Dan Esposito, manager of the electricity program for the consulting firm Energy Innovation: Policy & Technology. That, in turn, would place additional demand on the existing grid, much of which would be supported by coal and natural gas. “Not only are you making [greenhouse gas emissions] worse, you’re making it more difficult to clean up our electric system,” Esposito said. “The climate community is saying if we set weak rules it will be a disaster, this will not be clean hydrogen, it will just be a huge greenwashing campaign.” Hy Stor Energy is among the hydrogen companies and renewable energy developers that have sent letters supporting the rules as proposed. A March 1 letter to Treasury and White House officials from companies including Hy Stor Energy says: “Clear section 45V guidance that upholds the three pillars is necessary to guard against harmful climate impacts and significant emissions increases that might be driven by increases in fossil fuel-based generation to sustain electrolysis when renewable generation sources are not available. Weak section 45V rules would permit this perverse result, thus imposing significant climate and market risk that would undermine the achievement of U.S. climate goals, further the perception of political risk in U.S. climate regulation, and upset the hard-won momentum currently driving investment in the sector.”
Boom in mining for renewable energy minerals threatens Africa’s great apes --A boom in mining projects for minerals needed in renewable energy technologies is now threatening up to a third of apes in Africa, reports the Guardian. A new study found that an estimated 180,000 gorillas, bonobos and chimpanzees are at risk due to the increased demand for critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel and cobalt, it adds. The true impact of these mining operations may be even higher, because mining companies are not required to make biodiversity data public, reports Bloomberg. It quotes Jessica Junker, lead author of the paper and a researcher at Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg in Germany, who says: “Mining harms apes through pollution, habitat loss, increased hunting pressure and disease, but this is an incomplete picture. A shift away from fossil fuels is good for the climate, but must be done in a way that does not jeopardise biodiversity.” West African countries have the greatest overlap between mining operations and apes, with about 80% of the region's great apes living within 30 miles of mining sites, reports Inside Climate News. Central Africa has the highest number of apes that could be potentially impacted by mining due to the density of the population, with more than 135,000 individual great apes, it adds.
Electric vehicles may be lowering Bay Area's carbon footprint: Monitors record small decrease in CO₂emissions - An extensive CO2 monitoring network set up around the San Francisco Bay Area by an atmospheric chemist from the University of California, Berkeley, has recorded the first evidence that the adoption of electric vehicles is measurably lowering the area's carbon emissions. The findings have been published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. The network of sensors, most of them in the East Bay, is the brainchild of Ronald Cohen, UC Berkeley professor of chemistry, who envisions inexpensive, publicly funded pollution and carbon dioxide monitors widely distributed around urban areas to pinpoint emission sources and the neighborhoods most affected. An estimated 70% of global CO2 emissions come from cities, yet few urban areas have granular data about where those emissions originate. In 2012, Cohen began setting up a Bay Area sensing network that has now grown to more than 80 stations, including seven in San Francisco, that stretches from Sonoma County through Vallejo and down to San Leandro. Between 2018 and 2022, 57 of the sensors in the Berkeley Environmental Air Quality and CO2 Network (BEACO2N) recorded a small but steady decrease in CO2 emissions—about 1.8% annually—that translates to a 2.6% yearly drop in vehicle emission rates. Looking at California data for electric vehicle adoption—which is very high in the Bay Area—Cohen and graduate student Naomi Asimow concluded that the decrease was due to passenger vehicle electrification. "That's 2.6% less CO2 per mile driven each year," said Asimow, who is in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science. The study, Cohen said, shows the utility of an urban network for monitoring and managing federal, state and city mandates for CO2 reduction. "We show from atmospheric measurements that adoption of electric vehicles is working, that it's having the intended effect on CO2 emissions," Cohen said. (NB: emissions from the factories where the EVs were produced and the countries from where the materials were mined were not tracked)
Ford Retrenches EV Plan - Ford is delaying some of its EV product launches in favor of delivering hybrid versions of all its Ford-branded vehicles by 2030 as interest grows in hybrid vehicles as a prologue to a complete shift to electric vehicles. With the pace of EV sales slowing a bit, Ford backs away from its ambitious schedule of EV production and product launches, instead pledging to offer a hybrid version of all its Ford-branded vehicles by 2030. The announcement comes right after a positive first-quarter sales report by the Dearborn, MI, automaker. Ford’s electric-vehicle sales increased by 86% and hybrid sales rose 42% versus a year ago. “As the No.2 EV brand in the U.S. for the past two years, we are committed to scaling a profitable EV business, using capital wisely and bringing to market the right gas, hybrid and fully electric vehicles at the right time,” says Jim Farley, Ford president and CEO. “Our breakthrough, next-generation EVs will be new from the ground up and fully software-enabled, with ever-improving digital experiences and a multitude of potential services.” The strategy pivot is resulting in a later expected launch year for all-electric 3-row SUVs that are planned for the company’s Oakville, ON, Canada plant – 2027, compared with a previous target of 2025. Ford still plans to introduce a new all-electric truck from its new EV production complex in Tennessee, Blue Oval City, in 2026. Work also continues at Ford’s Avon Lake, OH, plant to produce electric commercial vehicles for its Ford Pro unit. That new vehicle line is expected to hit the market by “mid-decade,” giving Ford some flexibility on ramping up production to meet demand and not get too far ahead of demand for commercial EVs.
Electric school buses help tribes bridge the energy transition - — School buses are lifelines in this tiny reservation town near the Canadian border, where the youngest members of the Red Lake Band of Chippewa spend hours bouncing over winding, unpaved roads to attend daily classes.Come August, Red Lake’s K-12 students will begin boarding a very different kind of bus.While the new vehicles will look the same — bright yellow with the stenciled black district identifier — they won’t come with the combustion engines and tailpipes that pump out heat-trapping gases and damage young lungs.Red Lake Schools is among the first tribal districts to receive electric-powered buses courtesy of the Biden administration’s $5 billion Clean School Bus Program. The program, rolled out last year, is a centerpiece of the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law and a down payment on the administration’s promise to spend $13.7 billion to improve the lives of Native Americans.Tribal leaders and school district officials say the buses will give the reservation’s 1,550 students — who are members of the Ojibwe Tribe — a leg up in the global energy transformation that has been largely devoid of native voices.“We believe underserved kids deserve every opportunity to participate in activities that can open a horizon of new careers for them,” Tim Lutz, the Red Lake School District superintendent, said on a visit last fall, as a winter chill blew off the lake. “Ultimately, we think this fits with the direction we’re going on sustainability, and the fact that we want to be attuned to clean energy and the natural environment.”The anticipated arrival of the two battery-powered Blue Bird school buses — along with several hundred thousand dollars to build out the power grid and charging infrastructure — comes as the 10,000-member tribe faces erratic climate conditions in one of the fastest-warming places in the Lower 48 states.Willie Larson, the district’s business manager, said the adoption of electric vehicles is in line with the tribe’s fundamental beliefs about environmental stewardship — and offers a solution to the many problems that come with gas-fueled buses.“We’re moving away from the current buses because, No. 1, they’re so expensive to replace and repair. You also have issues with all of the exhaust coming off the [engines],” Larson said. “In addition to the emissions themselves on the routes, you have to make sure that stuff isn’t getting sucked back indoors when they’re running outside the schools, creating air quality problems for our students.”
Climate engineering carries serious national security risks—countries facing extreme heat may try it anyway - The world is already facing natural disasters of epic proportions as temperatures rise.Heat records are routinely broken. Wildfire seasons are more extreme. Hurricane strength is increasing. Sea level rise is slowly submerging small island nations and coastal areas. The only known method able to quickly arrest this temperature rise is climate engineering. (It's sometimes called geoengineering, sunlight reduction methods or solar climate intervention.) This is a set of proposed actions to deliberately alter the climate.These actions include mimicking the cooling effects of large volcanic eruptions by putting large amounts of reflective particles in the atmosphere, or making low clouds over the ocean brighter. Both strategies would reflect a small amount of sunlight back to space to cool the planet.There are many unanswered questions, however, about the effects of deliberately altering the climate, and there is no consensus about whether it is even a good idea to find out.One of the largest concerns for many countries when it comes to climate change is national security. That doesn't just mean wars. Risks to food, energy and water supplies are national security issues, as is climate-induced migration.Could climate engineering help reduce the national security risks of climate change, or would it make things worse? Answering that question is not simple, but researchers who study climate change and national security like we do have some idea of the risks ahead. Since the industrial revolution, humans have put about 1.74 trillion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, largely by burning fossil fuels. That carbon dioxide traps heat, warming the planet. One of the most important things we can do is to stop putting carbon into the atmosphere. But that won't make the situation better quickly, because carbon stays in the atmosphere for centuries. Reducing emissions will just keep things from getting worse. Countries could pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and lock it away, a process called carbon dioxide removal. Right now, carbon dioxide removal projects, including growing trees and direct air capture devices, pull about 2 billion tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere per year. However, humans are currently putting over 37 billion tons of carbon dioxideinto the atmosphere annually through fossil fuel use and industry. As long as the amount added is larger than the amount removed, droughts, floods, hurricanes, heat waves and sea level rise, among numerous other consequences of climate change, will keep getting worse. It may take a long time to get to "net-zero" emissions, the point at which humans aren't increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Climate engineering might help in the interim. Various government research arms are already gaming out scenarios, looking at who might decide to carry out climate engineering and how. Climate engineering is expected to be cheap relative to the cost of ending greenhouse gas emissions. But it would still cost billions of dollars and take yearsto develop and build a fleet of airplanes to carry megatons of reflective particles into the stratosphere each year. Any billionaire considering such a venture would run out of money quickly, despite what science fiction might suggest. However, a single country or coalition of countries witnessing the harms of climate change could make a cost and geopolitical calculation and decide to begin climate engineering on its own. This is the so-called "free driver" problem, meaning that one country of at least medium wealth could unilaterally affect the world's climate. The climate doesn't respect national borders. So, a climate engineering project in one country is likely to affect temperature and rainfall in neighboring countries. That could be good or bad for crops, water supplies and flood risk. It could also have widespread unintended consequences.
In climate setback, Rocky Mountain now says it plans to burn coal in Utah until 2042 - Rocky Mountain Power is abandoning its plans for early retirement of its coal-fired power plants in Utah, and instead will stick with the original retirement dates of 2036 and 2042, the company announced Monday. Utah’s largest electricity provider also cancelled its plan to replace the two Emery County coal plants with nuclear power plants. Further, the company significantly reduced its earlier commitment to buy new clean energy sources over the next decade. Rocky Mountain and its parent company PacifiCorp said the reversal – which comes less than a year after it first announced the early retirement plans – was motivated by developments around the federal government’s Ozone Transport Rule, which is aimed at preventing ozone-causing pollution generated in one state from increasing ozone in neighboring states. One development was the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s approval of Wyoming’s ozone transfer plan, which allowed the state to keep burning coal. The other development was a federal court’s stay of enforcing the ozone transfer rule in Utah, which could have put limits on how much coal the two Utah plants could burn. The updated plans “include extensions to the assumed operational life of certain thermal generating resources, as well as adjustments to the company’s energy storage acquisition strategy, customer demand forecasts and general resource pricing updates,” Rocky Mountain said in a press release announcing the update. The announcement is a stunning but not surprising move after an exceedingly rough year for the company. It puts Utah further behind in any effort to reduce its carbon footprint. Coal is the most climate-damaging fossil fuel, and Utah consumes more coal power than most states.Rocky Mountain said last May that it was retiring Emery County’s Hunter and Huntington power plants by 2032. But barely a month later, Rocky Mountain’s parent company,PacifiCorp, lost a wildfire liability lawsuit in Oregon that could ultimately cost the company billions of dollars in settlements.Since then, the company saw its insurance costs rise tenfold, and it has struggled to fund the move to cleaner energy sources. Last fall it suspended its process for buying new energy sources, in part because it has to save cash to pay wildfire claims. Monday’s announcement reflects an updated 2023 Integrated Resource Plan the company has filed with the Utah Public Service Commission, or PSC, which sets rates for Rocky Mountain’s Utah customers. Utilities regulated by the PSC must file the 20-year plans every two years. That earlier plan included what would have been the first nuclear power in Utah. PacifiCorp has partnered with TerraPower, a nuclear company funded by Microsoft founder Bill Gates, on a 500-megawatt “Natrium” nuclear plant in Kemmerer, Wyo., which is expected to break ground soon. PacifiCorp planned on putting two more Natrium plants – identical to the Kemmerer plant – at the sites of Hunter and Huntington, but that is now off the table. “Although additional advanced nuclear resources beyond the Natrium Demonstration Project are not included in this 2023 IRP update, PacifiCorp will continue to evaluate all utility-scale, non-carbon-emitting dispatchable resources, including advanced nuclear,” said Rocky Mountain spokesperson Dave Eskelsen.
OH Landowners Appeal Jury Decision Allowing Pt Pleasant Drilling - Marcellus Drilling News - A royalty case that took nearly four years and hundreds of filings by both sides was finally decided by an Ohio jury in March (see OH Drillers Win Case Against Landowners re Drilling Deeper). The jury found in favor of several drillers (Ascent Resources, Gulfport Energy, Rice Energy) and against the rights owner (TERA II, LLC) in a case where the words “Point Pleasant” were not included in a lease agreement. The drillers drilled into the Point Pleasant, which sits on the border of the Utica, even though, technically, the lease did not allow it. The jury found the landowners did not “reserve their rights” to the Point Pleasant, given its location next to the Utica. The landowners are now appealing the jury decision.
New Leases Sought in Columbiana County, OH, for Oil Drilling - Marcellus Drilling News -Leasing activity is picking up once again in the northern part of the Ohio Utica shale play. Greg Carver, a trustee with Knox Township in Columbiana County, says he was recently contacted about leasing 15 acres he owns for new oil drilling. In late February, a consortium paid $1.6 million for mineral rights for 345 acres in Knox Township. Holy smokes! That’s $4,637 per acre! It sure sounds like Utica leasing is “back” — just not where you might think it would be.
Ohio Utica Quickly Becoming an Oil Play – “Could Go On for Decades” Marcellus Drilling News -- Oil production in the Ohio Utica hit a record 27.8 million barrels in 2023, up 41% from 2022, according to researchers at the Levin College of Public Affairs and Education at Cleveland State University. In December, eastern Ohio oil wells pumped 93,000 barrels of crude, up one-third from December 2022, according to federal data. Oil has been locked away in the Utica/Point Pleasant shale layer for millennia. Aubrey McClendon, co-founder and former CEO of Chesapeake Energy, was the first to see the vision of freeing oil from the Utica. However, it was a successor company, Encino Energy, that figured out how to coax large quantities of oil out of the Utica shale.
Williams Building New Compressor in Columbiana County, OH -- Marcellus Drilling News - We have a second big news story coming out of Columbiana County, OH, today. Pipeline giant Williams confirmed it plans to build a compressor station in Hanover Township (Columbiana County) to help push more natural gas in the northern part of the Utica play. “But wait, that’s an oil area, right?” Very good, young Padawan. It is an oily part of the play. However, when a well is drilled for oil, natural gas always comes out of the ground along with it. It used to be that drillers could just burn the “excess” methane, but not now with far stricter environmental regulations.
Company to Boost Natural Gas Capacity in Columbiana - Youngstown Business Journal - Williams Companies, a Fortune 500 corporation based in Tulsa, Oklahoma, plans to invest additional resources in Columbiana County to accelerate delivery of natural gas to its midstream network across the Utica shale basin, the company confirms. According to a spokesperson for Williams, the company “seeks to construct a compressor station in Hanover Township, an important part of the energy supply chain to bring clean, affordable natural gas to the area.” Cardinal Gas Services LLC, a division of The Williams Companies Inc., on March 6 purchased 78 acres in the township off of McCann Road for $1.8 million, data from the Columbiana County auditor’s office show. The site is proximate to where Houston-based Encino Energy has recently drilled horizontal wells that have registered strong output of both gas and oil. Compressor stations are vital to the region’s midstream development, as they essentially serve as boosters to natural gas traveling across pipelines. Extended distances, changes in elevation and friction often reduce the amount of pressure in pipelines. These stations use turbines, engines or motors to compress the natural gas and push it further along, either to another compressor or a processing plant. “This extension of our current infrastructure will bolster service to the northern section of the gathering system, meeting customer demands and growth to the Utica basin,” the Williams spokesperson said in a statement. Midstream infrastructure has long been a critical part of harvesting oil and gas from tight shale plays such as the Utica/Point Pleasant. Williams’ pipeline network connects these wells to processing plants such as its huge operation in Kensington, south of Hanoverton in Columbiana County. The Kensington plant chills natural gas and then separates dry gas from wet gas. The dry gas is then fed into an existing natural gas pipeline, while the wet gas is transported by an 18-inch line to a large fractionation plant to the south in Harrison County. The Harrison County plant then separates the wet gas into specific products, such as ethane, propane or butane. The Utica also produces a sizeable amount of liquid natural gas, which could be exported out of the United States worldwide, especially to markets in Europe.
Big Green Threatens New Lawsuit to Block Drilling in OH Wayne NF - Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, the federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM) released a new draft plan to allow shale drilling to finally begin on land in Ohio’s Wayne National Forest (see BLM Floats Draft Assessment for Drilling in OH’s Wayne Nat’l Forest). Even though a majority of the land and mineral rights in WNF are privately owned, the BLM and various lawsuits from foreign-backed Big Green groups have blocked drilling in WNF for the past 15+ years. It’s a TRAGEDY and horrific injustice against private landowners. With the BLM’s new plan, the usual radicalized groups are back to announce they are watching and plan to sue once again.
Barnesville approves oil and gas lease with Blue Baron - The Times Leader— Village Council recently voted in favor of entering a gas and oil lease with Blue Baron Energy for 177 acres of village-owned property within the corporation limits. Council had voted in January to advertise 177 acres of village-owned land for the purpose of leasing gas and oil rights and had received two bids in response. Those were opened and read in brief during the March 11 council meeting before being turned over to Village Solicitor Richard Myser so he could better scrutinize the offers. During the March 25 meeting, Myser broke down the offers, saying that Gulfport Appalachia had offered a five-year lease of all 177 acres with a $7,500 per acre signing bonus and 20% of gross royalties. Blue Baron had offered to lease 172 acres with a $6,750 per acre signing bonus and 20% gross royalties. Myser noted that he did not know the reason the Blue Barn lease was for only 172 acres. Myser said that besides the stated differences, the two leases were essentially the same regarding the addendums and other details. “One of the things I did not like on both of them is that they are targeting the Point Pleasant vein of oil and gas. Both of them had depth restriction language that was almost the same,” Myser added, going on to say he had contacted the land agents for both companies and neither was willing to change the depth restriction to only include the Marcellus and Utica shale layers. The Marcellus layer is generally the shallowest shale in Eastern Ohio, with the Utica layer beneath it and the Point Pleasant layer even deeper, but spanning a smaller area. Mayor Jake Hershberger said that as he understood it, Blue Baron had “closer laterals” in its plan, which would lead to greater production and royalty earnings. Hershberger also said that Blue Baron was “buying for Grenadier (Energy), which has leased a lot of land from Barnesville residents from Main Street south and from South Chestnut Street east, that whole corner, with the intent to drill.” Steve Penland of Western Land Management, who later said he was working with Blue Baron in the area, said that while he understood the difference between the signing bonuses seemed significant, he “would want to lease with a company that I knew was going to develop and drill the land properly to get the most return.” He later added that Blue Baron/Grenadier were “champing at the bit to develop this.” Penland also said he was unaware of the reason for the acreage discrepancy but that he was confident it could be worked out. Councilman Steve Hill questioned whether Gulfport had any intention of actually drilling, saying he believed the company was merely acquiring the rights to sell off later.
Flood Waters Get Close to Shuttered Austin Master Frack Waste --Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost took legal action seeking to force Austin Master Services (AMS) in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), OH, to correct “egregious violations of Ohio law” regarding the storage of oil and gas waste that he says threatens the Ohio River and Martins Ferry’s drinking water supply (see Ohio AG Sues Austin Master Services for Unsafe Storage of Wastewater). As the story began to unfold, we learned that AMS had stored at least 10,000 tons of fracking waste beyond its rating at the facility. Last weekend, the Ohio River, which is located 500 feet from the facility, reached flood stage and approached (but didn’t reach) the AMS facility.
Martins Ferry Mayor: Austin Master did not flood - The Times Leader — Flood water from the Ohio River did not infiltrate the Austin Master Services frack waste recycling facility on Thursday, according to Martins Ferry Mayor John Davies. City leaders and area residents have been concerned about whether flood water could be contaminated with waste, some of which is radioactive, if it were to reach the plant. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost took legal action against Austin Master last week, citing “egregious violations of Ohio law” regarding storage of oil and gas waste. His complaint, filed in Belmont County Common Pleas Court, states the waste is a threat to the Ohio River and to Martins Ferry’s drinking water supply. The complaint also states that the company is failing to store waste from fracking operations properly at its facility located at 801 N. First St. in Martins Ferry, which is approximately 500 feet from the Ohio River and about 1,000 feet from the city’s drinking water well field. During a city council meeting last week, Davies reported that the facility is “locked down” with security staff on site. “They took an excessive amount of debris in … at this point 10,000 tons too much, which is way past their permit, outside the original containment into the secondary containment,” Davies said of the facility. On Thursday, the Ohio River crested at nearly 42 feet at Wheeling in the wake of strong storms that brought more than 4 inches of rain to Belmont County earlier this week. Flood stage is 36 feet. Widespread flooding occurred on both sides of the Ohio River in communities such as Bridgeport, Bellaire and Powhatan Point. In Martins Ferry, water from the river reached railroad tracks along Ohio 7, and sections of First Street in the industrial area of the community were underwater Thursday. Davies said, however, that the river didn’t actually reach First Street; instead, he said, the flooding there was a result of storm drains backing up. Davies said he visited the Austin Master site “about 20 times” on Thursday. During one of those stops, he met with representatives of the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, which is the agency that permitted the site to operate. According to Davies, although water could be seen surrounding the plant, no flood water was able to get inside the facility. Davies said he witnessed this himself and that he had also talked with the facility’s groundskeeper, who said no water had made it into the plant. According to Davies, for water to actually enter the plant, which is a former steel mill, the river would have to rise to a depth of 45 feet. Efforts to contact the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency and Ohio Department of Natural Resources for additional information on the situation at Austin Master were unsuccessful. A media liaison for the OEPA did respond to an email with a query about The Times Leader’s deadline but did not provide any information. A call to the ODNR Division of Oil and Gas was directed to a voice mailbox that was full and no longer accepting messages.
Ohio ODNR Update: Top 5 Producers, Injection Well Primacy & More | Marcellus Drilling News -- The Ohio Oil & Gas Association (OOGA) held its annual meeting in March at the Hilton in Columbus, OH. While MDN was not there, an industry friend sent along a copy of the slide deck used by the Ohio Dept. of Natural Resources (ODNR) Division of Oil & Gas Resources Management. The ODNR’s “regulatory update” addressed a number of interesting issues, including the state’s ongoing application for “primacy” in permitting carbon dioxide injection wells, permitting and unitization (forced pooling), updates on rule changes for drilling and fracking, and several “top 5” lists for natural gas and oil producers in the Utica Shale. The first section of the ODNR update dealt with the state’s application for primacy in permitting new injection wells for storing carbon dioxide underground, called Class VI wells. The federal EPA has primacy unless and until an individual state applies for and (eventually) gains that authority. The application process is long and takes about five years. Ohio is about two years into that process. The ODNR gave an update on what it has done so far, and what still needs to take place before primacy is awarded to the state. The next section — on rules — doesn’t contain a lot in the way of detail. However, it’s obvious there are some coming changes (tweaks?) for both drilling and permitting of horizontal shale wells. Be on the lookout for those changes. Orphan well plugging is interesting. For all of the hoopla Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro made about plugging 132 orphaned wells in 2023 (see PA DEP Spending $44M This Yr, $76M Next Yr to Plug Orphaned Wells), Ohio, without any fanfare or chest-thumping (like Shapiro does), plugged 213 orphaned wells in 2023 (see slide 18). Ohio’s “marginal well plugging” program is like the orphaned well program, except marginal wells are producing wells (low amounts) and the operator is known. Ohio has a program with some money to plug these wells before they begin leaking. The final sections deal with stats for permitting and production. Very interesting stuff, including several top 5 lists. There’s a top 5 producers list by number of wells drilled — Encino takes the prize for the most wells drilled. For producers of natural gas, Ascent Resources takes the top prize. And for oil production, the top slot goes to Encino. As we shared yesterday in a post, Ohio is quickly becoming known more for oil production than for natural gas (see Ohio Utica Quickly Becoming an Oil Play – “Could Go On for Decades”).
4 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 25 – 31 - Marcellus Drilling News What’s below dismal? The new permits report for two weeks ago showed just five new permits, which we called “dismal” (see 5 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Mar 18 – 24). Last week, for March 25 – 31, there were just four new permits issued. Technically, there were only twowas tardy in their new permits (both in Pennsylvania), but Ohio’s Dept. of Natural Resources update and recorded two new permits last week for permits issued the week before. We didn’t report them two weeks ago, so we will report them this week. In PA, there was one new permit each issued to Snyder Brothers (Armstrong County) and Greylock Energy (Potter County). OH issued two permits to Ascent Resources (both in Guernsey County). West Virginia issued no new permits for the second week in a row. ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | GREYLOCK ENERGY | GUERNSEY COUNTY | POTTER COUNTY | SNYDER BROTHERS
Gas pipeline expansion project passing through Wetzel County reported in service Charleston Gazette - Facilities comprising a gas infrastructure expansion project spanning Wetzel County and parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania have been placed into service, a Mountain Valley Pipeline developer’s subsidiary has told federal regulators. Ohio Valley Connector Expansion Project facilities were completed and placed into service on March 27, Equitrans L.P., subsidiary of Washington County, Pennsylvania-based Mountain Valley Pipeline lead developer Equitrans Midstream Corp., told the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in a filing Monday.
FERC Wins Lawsuit Against Sierra Club re NFG's Northern Access Pipe Marcellus Drilling News - National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) and its pipeline subsidiary Empire Pipeline have worked on a plan to build the Northern Access Pipeline since 2016. Northern Access is a 97-mile project from McKean County in Pennsylvania into and through Allegany, Cattaraugus, and Erie counties in New York that will flow Marcellus gas into New York State. The project was repeatedly delayed by the radicals of the Andrew Cuomo (now Kathy Hochul) administrations in NY. NFG still wants to build the project but needs more time. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) gave NFG an extra 35 months to get the project done in a decision in June 2022. The Sierra Club challenged FERC’s time extension. On Friday the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC Circuit) rejected the Clubbers and said FERC properly extended the time to build the project.
NatGas Spot Prices in M-U Moving Higher on Lower Production | Marcellus Drilling News While you wouldn’t know it from looking at the NYMEX Henry Hub futures price, the cuts in production from Marcellus/Utica producers, including Chesapeake Energy, ETQ, Antero Resources, Coterra Energy, CNX Resources, and others, IS having an effect on prices — on the spot prices of physically-traded natural gas in the M-U region. Over the past eight weeks, gas production from the Marcellus and Utica shale has fallen sharply.
US natgas prices jump 4% to 3-week high on strong demand forecasts (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to a three-week high on Monday as output dropped and forecasts were lifted for demand next week. Price gains were limited by lowered demand forecasts for this week forecasts for mild weather through mid-April, ample amounts of gas in storage and reduced amounts of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to ongoing repairs at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.4 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $1.837 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the highest close since March 6. Gas prices have been mostly depressed for months - falling to an intraday low of $1.481 per mmBtu on March 26, their lowest since June 2020. After a mild winter with record output, utility gas stockpiles are about 41% above normal levels for this time of year. Low prices should boost U.S. gas use to a record high in 2024 but cut production for the first time since COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns in 2020, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's latest outlook. Output was already down by around 6% over the past month as several energy firms, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy , delayed well completions and cut back on other drilling activities. In the spot market, mild weather and ample hydro and other renewable power supplies in the U.S. West cut electricity prices in Arizona to record lows. Next-day power fell to negative $12 per megawatt hour at the Palo Verde hub in Arizona, according to data from SNL Energy on the LSEG terminal. That compares with prior all-time lows of negative $9 on March 27 and negative $8 on March 25. Negative prices mean there is too much power in a region due to low demand and/or transmission constraints, and are used to encourage power generators to shut plants or pay to keep them running. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March from 104.8 bcfd in February. In December, 2023 it hit a monthly record high of 105.6 bcfd. On Monday, daily output was on track to drop about 3.9 bcfd to a preliminary 10-week low of 96.5 bcfd, which would be the biggest daily decline since mid-January when extreme cold froze oil and gas wells. Analysts, however, noted preliminary data is usually revised over the next few days, especially first-of-the-month preliminary data. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 16, except for some cold days from April 3-6. With seasonally warmer weather coming, LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would fall from 104.0 bcfd this week to 101.1 bcfd next week. The forecasts for this week were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants fell to an average of 13.1 bcfd in March, down from 13.7 bcfd in February. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
DC Circuit Sides with FERC in Natural Gas Pipeline, LNG Project Extensions - U.S. regulators were well within their rights to grant extensions to natural gas projects, a federal appeals court found. FERC’s decision to extend the construction deadlines for projects being undertaken by National Fuel Gas Supply Co. and Cheniere Energy Inc. “were not arbitrary and capricious,” the U.S. Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit ruled on March 29. “To the contrary, the decisions were reasonable and adequately supported by the record evidence,” the decision stated.
U.S. Public Power Utilities Opting for Natural Gas to Replace Coal-Fired Generation - The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) said it would add natural gas-fired generation fueled by a potential pipeline expansion proposed by Enbridge Inc.’s East Tennessee Natural Gas LLC (ETNG) as it retires a large segment of coal generation. TVA, which has floated the proposal of retiring the Kingston Fossil Plant (KIF) since its 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, said by 2027 it would be shuttering all nine units at the coal-fired facility in eastern Tennessee. In addition to solar and battery storage additions, about 1,500 MW of natural gas-fired capacity from one combined-cycle plant and 16 dual-fuel aeroderivative combustion turbines (aero CT) would replace the retired generation. Aero CTs are able to ramp up faster than conventional simple-cycle CTs as they draw air...
Plaquemines LNG Pipeline Project Cleared to Start Service - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has cleared Enbridge Inc. subsidiary Texas Eastern Transmission LP (Tetco) to start service on the Venice Extension pipeline project that would serve the Plaquemines LNG export facility under construction in Louisiana. The Venice Extension would expand the Tetco system with a new three-mile, 36-inch diameter pipeline in Louisiana to move nearly 1.3 Bcf/d to the Plaquemines facility. Enbridge is also modifying two existing compressor stations in Iberville and Lafourche Parishes, where it will build two new compressor stations in addition to another new compressor facility in Pointe Coupee Parish.
US was world’s largest liquified natural gas exporter last year --The U.S. was the world’s largest exporter of liquified natural gas (LNG) in 2023, according to federal data released Monday. U.S. exports of the fossil fuel last year surpassed those of major exporters Qatar and Australia, and it amounted to 12 percent more American gas shipped than in 2022, the Energy Information Administration said.The increase comes as Europe, the primary customer for U.S. gas exports, is looking to move away from another major supplier, Russia, in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.It also comes as the Biden administration is facing increasing political pressure — particularly from climate activists — over its natural gas exports.In response to objections to the nation’s growing gas exports, the administration paused approvals for some new natural gas export projects earlier this year — though that pause does not impact existing exports or projects that are already under construction. Experts have also debated the environmental impacts of U.S. natural gas exports, given that the fuel does contribute to climate change, but displaces even-dirtier coal in some nations. High oil and gas production numbers have presented a political tightrope for the administration — as it seeks to show progressive and mainstream Democrats that it is taking climate action, while also combatting right-wing attacks over not being friendly-enough to fossil fuels. The U.S. energy statistics agency said that the increase in U.S. exports came in response to strong European demand and high international prices. The return of Texas’s Freeport LNG plant in 2023 after a 2022 fire also bolstered the nation’s export numbers. U.S. LNG export levels set records in November and December.
DOE Insists LNG Pause Could End Within One Year in Rehearing Denials - Natural gas trade associations and LNG project developers could be forced to rely on the courts or Congress for a swift end to the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) pause on new export authorizations after the agency closed the door on revisiting its decision. At the end of March, DOE issued two denials of requests for rehearing on its liquefied natural gas export authorization pause from a coalition of energy groups spearheaded by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Commonwealth LNG LLC. In its denial letters, DOE’s counsel did not provide concrete dates for its policy review, but narrowed the possible timeframe for a conclusion to at least before March 2025.
E&Ps Urge Expanding Gulf of Mexico Oil and Gas Leasing, Continuing Wind Sales - Natural gas and oil lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) should continue, but there’s room for wind development, as well as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), according to exploration and production (E&P) companies. Both supporters and opponents of federal leasing in the offshore made their comments on the national leasing program, published late last month, following a request by the Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). The Biden administration’s 2024-2029 National Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Oil and Gas Leasing Program was finalized last year. It has scheduled one auction each for 2025, 2027 and 2029. BOEM is using Area Identification, or Area ID, to develop a recommendation for the areas when considering leasing
Side Effect of US Oil & Gas Boom: Record Ethane Production & Exports | US production of ethane – one of the natural-gas liquids that are in the hydrocarbon mix at oil and gas wells – rose 9% in 2023 to a record 2.6 million barrels per day (b/d), according to the EIA.The record ethane production was a result of the boom in natural gas production that has made the US the largest natural gas producer in the world, and in 2023, also the largest LNG exporter in the world. Natural gas production in the US is in part a result of the boom in fracking for oil, that has turned the US into the largest crude oil producer in the world, with record production and exports of crude oil and petroleum products. These oil wells also produce profuse amounts of natural gas and natural gas liquids, including Ethane.Over 60% of the ethane is produced in the Permian, which spans part of West Texas and New Mexico and is the most prolific oil field in the US. Natural gas processing plants dehydrate the raw natural gas, remove impurities, and then separate ethane and other natural gas liquids, such as propane, butanes, and pentanes, from the gas (chart via the EIA): Ethane is used almost exclusively as feedstock by the petrochemical industry. Consumption of ethane by the huge US petrochemical industry rose 5% to 2.1 million b/d in 2023. The EIA reported:“Two new petrochemical crackers, located in Port Arthur, Texas, and in Monaca, Pennsylvania, ramped up operations in 2023 after coming on line in late 2022. Ethane consumption in the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), where most crackers are located, increased 4% from 2022 to 2.0 million b/d. Ethane consumption on the East Coast (PADD 1) more than doubled, averaging 38,000 b/d in 2023, a 22,000 b/d increase from 2022.”The rest of the ethane was exported. Exports of ethane increased by 13% to a record 471,000 b/d in 2023. About 45% of those exports went to China, 16% went to India, 14% to Canada, and 10% to Norway (chart via the EIA):The EIA credited the growth in exports to growth in demand by the global petrochemical sector, rising tanker capacity, and low prices in the US for ethane.The boom in natural gas production since 2007 has caused prices of natural gas to collapse in the US. Natural gas futures currently trade at $1.83 per million Btu (MMBtu). From 2000 through 2008, natural gas ranged from $2 to $15 per MMBtu, much of the time above $6 per MMBtu.US production is now doing the same thing to ethane prices. But when ethane prices are low relative to natural gas prices, operators of natural gas processing plants can leave more ethane in the natural gas stream to be sold in natural gas markets. So there’s another outlet for some of the ethane, in theory. But natural gas prices are low too.Ethane prices at Mont Belvieu, Texas, the main pricing hub for ethane (chart via the EIA):
US strategic petroleum reserve replenishment could be tempered by oil price (Reuters) - The U.S. is replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve after selling a record amount of oil from the stockpile in 2022 and as one of the stockpile's sites winds down maintenance, but the pace could be tempered by rising crude prices. The Department of Energy said late on Thursday it is offering solicitations for 3 million barrels of domestically-produced crude oil, for the Bayou Choctaw, Louisiana site, which had been undergoing maintenance. The oil, if purchased, is slated to be delivered to the SPR site in August and September. In 2022, the administration of President Joe Biden announced a sale of 180 million barrels of oil over six months from the reserve, thelargest ever SPR sale, in an attempt to lower gasoline prices after Russia invaded Ukraine. The DOE also conducted a sale of 38 million barrels in 2022 that had been mandated by Congress.The administration says it sold the 180 million barrels at an average of about $95 a barrel. It wants to buy back oil at $79 a barrel or less. The West Texas Intermediate oil price of about $80.70 a barrel on Friday could slow future purchases if it stays at that level or rises. The price has mostly risen in recent days after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and on an International Energy Agency outlook that signaled tighter supply.The administration has so far bought back about 29.61 million barrels of domestically-produced crude oil, since the 2022 sales, it says. The DOE says it has also sped up the return of nearly 4 million barrels to the SPR from loans to oil companies.The pace of the buybacks has been slowed by planned maintenance at two of the four SPR sites, department officials have said. Quick buybacks of much larger volumes could also risk pushing up oil and gasoline prices ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, analysts have said. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said on Feb. 21 the U.S. was being careful not to do anything to remove supply from the market when prices might be high. The reserve currently holds 361.6 million barrels, nearly 60% of which is sour crude, or relatively high sulfur oil which many U.S. refineries are engineered to process. The most oil it ever held was nearly 727 million barrels in 2009.The sales in 2022 sank the SPR to the lowest level in about 40 years. That angered some Republicans who accused the Democratic administration of leaving the U.S. with a thin supply buffer to respond to a future crisis. But the administration says it has a three-pronged strategy to return oil to the reserve. That includes buying back oil, the return of oil loaned from the SPR to companies, and cancelling congressionally mandated sales of 140 million barrels of SPR oil through 2027. Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers had voted for those sales to pay for government programs.
Biden Halts Attempts To Refill SPR As Oil Price Soars More than a year ago, we laughed at the thought that the Biden admin would actually follow through with its promise to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when oil fell below $80, which in turn prompted area idiots to really rub it in our face when WTI tumbled as low as $73. In retrospect we were, of course, right (and area idiots will continue failing upward until finally someone gives them the old rugpull) because even though WTI did indeed spend a few months below $80 before exploding back up again, this is how much oil the Biden admin purchased to refill the SPR after it intentionally drained it in 2022 to limit the surge in gas prices. Can't see it? It's highlighted in the yellow circle (yeah, no wonder you can't see it). And now that WTI is back to $86 and the Biden admin has completely missed its window to add some more oil to the SPR besides the token several hundred barrels here and there, the Biden administration has capitulated and today announced it won’t move forward with its latest plans to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve amid rising prices.According to Bloomberg, Biden's Energy Department said it was “keeping the taxpayer’s interest at the forefront” in its decision not to purchase as many as 3 million barrels of oil for a Strategic Petroleum Reserve site in Louisiana. The plan for the barrels to be delivered in August and September had been announced in mid-March. It has now been canceled meaning that the already dismal rate of SPR refill will now flatline for the foreseeable future, at least until the NBER admits the US is in a recession. “We will not award the current solicitations for the Bayou Choctaw SPR site and will solicit available capacity as market conditions allow,” the department said. “We will continue to monitor market dynamics.”The capitulation follows a surge in crude prices, with WTI on Tuesday rising above $86 a barrel for the first time since October. The Biden administration has a target to buy oil at $79 or lower to refill the reserve, though spent an average of about $81 a barrel in its latest purchase of 2.8 million barrels late last month.The Energy Department has been slowly refilling the emergency oil supply after it reached a 40-year-low following the administration’s unprecedented drawdown of a record 180 million barrels in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It currently holds about 363 million barrels, according to Energy Department data, down from almost 600 million at the start of 2022.And just like that anyone hoping that Biden would add more than a few drops to the SPR can stop holding their breath: “Domestic crude prices are likely to remain too high for the remainder of the year for DOE to resume its refilling program,” said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former adviser to President George W. Bush.
Washington Department of Ecology and Coast Guard respond to sunken vessel in Lake Union - The Coast Guard and Washington Department of Ecology continue their response Monday to a sunken tugboat in Lake Union in Seattle, Washington. The vessel, a tugboat converted into a residence, partially sank Saturday afternoon. Red-dyed diesel escaped from the vessel into Lake Union. There were reportedly no people aboard the vessel at the time of the sinking. Responders from the City of Seattle and the Washington Department of Ecology placed boom around the vessel to contain the spill. A response contractor was hired to clean up the spill and salvage the vessel. Contractors have pumped off 400 gallons of oily water from the vessel’s tanks and cabin and removed fuel from inside the boom surrounding the vessel as well. Professional wildlife response efforts are underway. Responders with Focus Wildlife have found several oiled birds and are taking steps to recover those animals for treatment. Responders are on scene assessing further risk to animals in the area. If you see oiled wildlife, report it at 1-800-22BIRDS. Do not to attempt to rescue oiled birds or other wildlife on your own. Oil spill responders are investigating sheens reported in other parts of Lake Union. The cause of the incident is under investigation.
Chevron owns this city’s news site. Many stories aren’t told. -Open flames shot upward from four smokestacks at the Chevron refinery on the western edge of Richmond, Calif. Soon, black smoke blanketed the sky.News spread quickly that day last November, but by word of mouth, says Denny Khamphanthong, a 29-year-old Richmond resident. "We don't know the full story, but we know that you shouldn't breathe in the air or be outside for that matter," Khamphanthong says now. "It would be nice to have an actual news outlet that would actually go out there and figure it out themselves."The city's primary local news source, The Richmond Standard, didn't cover the flare. Nor had it reported on a 2021 Chevron refinery pipeline rupture that dumped nearly 800 gallons of diesel fuel into San Francisco Bay.Chevron is the city's largest employer, largest taxpayer and largest polluter. Yet when it comes to writing about Chevron, The Richmond Standard consistently toes the company line.And there's a reason for that: Chevron owns The Richmond Standard."If you look at Chevron's website and you look at The Richmond Standard, a lot of the information is copy and paste," says Katt Ramos, a local climate activist. "They present a very skewed viewpoint that is bought and paid for by Chevron."
Diesel spill reported at drilling rig in Dunn County — Enerplus Resources recently notified state agencies of a diesel spill caused by a drilling rig in Dunn County.The incident happened about 18 miles northwest of Killdeer on March 29. Enerplus estimates approximately 187 barrels (7,854 gallons) of diesel were released under the rig and remained on the well pad.The spilled diesel is in the process of being collected and removed. Personnel from the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality will inspect the site and monitor the investigation and remediation.Federal and state laws require that operators report the spillage of any materials that may pollute water, air or soil.
187 barrels of oil spilled in North Dakota — Authorities in North Dakota are cleaning up after a diesel spill caused by a drilling rig in Dunn County.The company ener-plus resources says approximately 187 barrels of diesel were released under the rig and remained on the well pad. The spilled diesel is in the process of being collected and removed.State authorities will inspect and monitor the site throughout the cleanup and investigation.
Major oil spills in United States since 1969 (Reuters) - Energy major Chevron has agreed to pay $13.1 million in settlement agreements with two California state agencies for its oil spills in 2019, which saw at least 800,000 gallons of oil and water leak into a creek bed in Kern County.The state of California has seen multiple oil spills starting from a devastating oil well blowout in Santa Barbara in 1969 to Amplify Energy's offshore spill in 2021.Here are some of the major oil spills in the U.S. since 1969:
- Keystone Pipeline, Kansas – 2022 - A progressive fatigue crack, which originated during the construction of TC Energy's (TRP.TO), opens new tab Keystone pipeline, caused a 14,000-barrel oil spill in rural Kansas. It was the biggest U.S. oil spill in nine years.
- North Dakota – 2013 - Tesoro Logistics LP's pipeline spilled more than 20,000 barrels of crude oil into a wheat field in North Dakota.
- Gulf of Mexico – 2010 - An explosion occurred on the BP operated Deepwater Horizon oil well drilling platform on April 20, killing 11 workers and releasing 134 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico.
- Port Arthur, Texas – 2010 - An oil tanker Eagle Otome, chartered by Exxon Mobil, carrying crude to a refinery, was struck by a barge tow traveling in the opposite direction, spilling an estimated 11,000 barrels (462,000 gallons) of sour Mexican oil into the water.
- Kalamzoo River, Michigan – 2010 - A failure of pipeline operator Enbridge's Line 6B near Marshall, Michigan, spilled some 20,000 barrels of oil into a branch of the Kalamazoo River.
- New Orleans, Louisiana – 2005 - Hurricane Katrina caused 190,000 barrels of oil spills along the Louisiana coastline from various sources, including pipelines, storage tanks and industrial plants.
- Port Sulphur, Louisiana – 2000 - The tanker Westchester lost power and ran aground, leaking about 13,500 barrels of crude oil into the Mississippi River about 60 miles south of New Orleans. The spill was then the largest in U.S. waters since Exxon Valdez.
- Moonstone Beach, Rhode Island – 1996 -The tank barge North Cape and tug Scandia grounded on Moonstone Beach after the tug caught fire in its engine room, spilling almost 20,000 barrels of home heating oil through the Block Island Sound. The spill killed more than 10 million lobsters and prompted a ban on fishing in the area for several months.
- Galveston, Texas – 1990 - About 121,000 barrels of oil were spilled 60 miles off Galveston after an explosion at the 886-foot Mega Borg and subsequent fire in the pump room.
- Prince William Sound, Alaska – 1989 - The oil tanker Exxon Valdez, owned by Exxon Shipping, struck the Bligh Reef in Alaska and spilled more than 11 million gallons of crude oil, spreading over 3,000 square miles.
U.S. Natural Gas Flows to Mexico Seen Hitting New Records This Summer - Amid a historic natural gas price downturn and uncertainty around the future of LNG exports, the Mexico market remains a relative bright spot for bulls. Pipeline flows of U.S. natural gas to Mexico have averaged 6.09 Bcf/d year-to-date through March 27, up 552 MMcf/d versus the same period last year, according to Wood Mackenzie data. For full-year 2024, Mexico’s average pipeline imports are set to grow by more than 300 MMcf/d year/year, potentially crossing the 6.5 Bcf/d line, according to the firm’s latest projections.
Explainer: Shell appeals against Dutch court's landmark climate ruling (Reuters) - A Dutch court on Tuesday heard Shell's appeal against a landmark climate ruling which ordered it to drastically deepen planned greenhouse gas emission cuts. The district court in The Hague ordered Shell in 2021 to cut its absolute carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels. The reduction includes emissions from the use of fuels sold to customers, which account for around 95% of Shell's emissions. The court will hear from Shell and Friends of the Earth Netherlands, which brought the case, for four days this month. A verdict is expected in the second half of the year. A further appeal to the country's Supreme Court is widely expected regardless of the outcome of this appeal. Shell said implementing the ruling would force it to shrink its business and would simply lead customers to shift to other suppliers of fuel. Shell aims to reduce the carbon intensity of products it sells by 15-20% by 2030 from a 2016 baseline after watering down the target in March. Shell has an "ambition" to reduce customer emissions from the use of its oil products by 15-20% by 2030 compared with 2021. Shell also aims to become a "net zero" emissions company by 2050. The reduction relates to Shell's global operations and is not limited to the Netherlands, the court ruling said.
Australian LNG Exports Climb Higher Despite Supply Headwinds - Australian LNG exports have ticked upward so far this year, driven in large part by higher volumes from the country’s east coast facilities. Exports reached 21.5 million tons (Mt) through March 27, up from 20.6 Mt over the same time last year, according to Kpler. The uptick came from the Australia Pacific, Gladstone (GLNG) and Queensland Curtis liquefied natural gas facilities. “Annual numbers show intervention in the east coast gas market last year took a toll on reserves-poor GLNG, which experienced a decline in exports from 6.1 Mt in 2022 to 5.7 Mt in 2023,” according to Australia-based consulting firm Energy Quest. East coast LNG exports operated at an average of 94% of nameplate capacity last year. Shipments were steady in 2023 at 23.3 Mt despite increased
Asian LNG Imports on the Rise as Restocking Season Gets Underway – LNG Recap - Asia is attracting more LNG cargoes as spot prices remain low and Europe enters the injection season with a plump storage cushion. While Europe’s liquefied natural gas imports dropped 20% to 9.05 million tons (Mt) last month, Asia’s jumped 12% to 24.3 Mt, according to Kpler data. China, Japan and South Korea led the region’s imports during March. Strong storage inventories, lackluster demand and mild weather have held global natural gas prices down most of the year. The European market was closed Friday and Monday for the Easter holiday, but Dutch Title Transfer Facility prices have held near $9/MMBtu amid competition with Asia for supplies. However, more LNG is expected to land in Asia in the coming weeks given European storage capacity that is 59% full, or well above normal for this time of year...
Gazprom Tightens Grip on Sakhalin 2 LNG Project by Purchasing Shell’s Stake - Russia’s Gazprom PJSC will reportedly increase its ownership of Sakhalin 2 LNG project, placing more of the country’s export capacity under state-owned company’s control as sanctions continue to pressure its oil and pipeline gas revenues. According to the Russian government, a 27.5% stake valued at $1.6 billion is to be sold to Gazprom, increasing its interest in the liquefied natural gas project to 78%. The share, previously owned by Shell plc, was expected to go to Russia’s largest LNG producer, privately held Novatek PJSC. A Shell spokesperson told Reuters that the producer “reserves all its legal rights” from the stake. However, Shell had no comment about Russia’s actions. Shell last year wrote down its investment in the 11.5 million metric tons/year facility...
Exclusive: Russia's Arctic LNG 2 suspends gas liquefaction amid sanctions, lack of tankers, sources say (Reuters) - Novatek, Russia's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), has suspended production at its Arctic LNG 2 project due to sanctions and a shortage of gas tankers, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.The project had been hoping to start commercial deliveries in the first quarter of this year. But plans were complicated last year when it was included in Western sanctions over Russia's conflict in Ukraine, prompting foreign shareholders to freeze participation and Novatek to issue a force majeure.The decision to suspend converting natural gas to LNG is a blow to Russia's goal to capture a fifth of the global LNG market by 2030-2035. It is currently the world's fourth-largest LNG producer with annual exports of 32.6 million metric tons.Novatek, which started tentative LNG production at the first of the plant's planned three trains in December, did not reply to a request for comment."Train one will remain shut until at least the end of June," one of the sources told Reuters, adding that construction activities for the project were still ongoing.The other two trains are due to be delivered to the site by sea in future from the port of Murmansk. The three trains are together targeted to produce 19.8 million metric tons per year of LNG and 1.6 million tons per year of stable gas condensate.The sources said the main problem was a lack of specialist tankers capable of transporting LNG - which is cooled to minus 163 degrees Celsius (minus 261.4 Fahrenheit) - and cutting through thick sea ice.Separately, the Vedomosti newspaper said on Tuesday that natural gas output at the project had fallen sharply to 83 million cubic metres (mcm) in February due to a delay in the start of LNG shipments.The sources said production had been 425 mcm in December and 250 mcm in January.Russia faces challenges in getting specialist gas tankers.According to Novatek, 15 Arc7 ice-class tankers, able to cut through 2-metre thick ice, will be built at Russia's Zvezda shipyard for Arctic LNG 2. Six more Arc7 tankers were due to be built by Hanwha Ocean, formerly Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering, including three for Russia's leading tanker group Sovcomflot (and three for Japan's Mitsui O.S.K. Lines.However, the three tankers ordered by Sovcomflot were cancelled due to the sanctions against Russia, Hanwha said last year in regulatory filings.Ice-class tankers usually have double hulls - strengthened structures to withstand the pressure of ice - and reinforced propellers.So far, only three suitable gas tankers have been built for Arctic LNG 2, according to public information: the Alexei Kosygin, Pyotr Stolypin and Sergei Witte vessels.
Iran Renews Iraq Gas Contract Amid Production Uncertainty Despite a persistent and alarming deficit in its natural gas production, Iran recently chose to renew gas export contracts with Iraq – a decision that can have severe consequences for its own energy needs. While Iran boasts having the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, its production capacity has consistently fallen short of meeting escalating demand in recent years, especially during peak periods such as winter. Historically, Iran has played a pivotal role in providing vital natural gas to fulfill Iraq's energy requirements, particularly for powering electricity generation. Yet, a notable decrease in the supply of natural gas from Iran has exacerbated Iraq’s own energy crisis – with the country’s electricity output significantly lagging behind its increasing demand currently at 35 gigawatts. While several multibillion-dollar contracts were signed with power giants by Iraq since 2008, efforts to address the crisis have largely failed, with corruption, mismanagement, and political interference leading to significant losses in investment. Siemens and American General Electric (GE) are positioned to dominate the sector, leveraging partnerships with Iraqi interests.The South Pars field – the world's largest natural gas field – is crucial for Iran's economy as it provides a substantial portion of the country's natural gas production.The field, located in the Persian Gulf between Iran and Qatar, is also exposing Iranian officials’ underperformance in developing it in contrast to Qatar Petroleum. Qatar has been extracting gas from South Pars since 1990, a decade ahead of Iran, and has produced nearly double the amount of gas from the field.Meanwhile, based on its own estimates, Iran is expected to elevate its numbers over the next five years – from 1.07 billion cubic meters per day to 1.3 billion cubic meters (bcm). However, such official claims often remain unrealized due to financial and technological constraints.
oil imports: India's March Russian oil imports rose over 7% from Feb, trade flows show - India's Russian oil imports rose by more than 7% in March from February as refiners snapped up cheaper oil, data from trade flow tracking agencies Kpler and LSEG shows. Refiners in India have been gorging on Russian oil since the West shunned purchases form Moscow and imposed sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.The data shows that Russia continued to be the top oil supplier to India followed by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. India, the world's third biggest oil importer and consumer, cut monthly purchases from Saudi Arabia in March and raised those from Iraq, the data showed.
Indian Coast Guard strengthens presence in Gujarat -- The Indian Coast Guard (ICG) has strategically based additional hovercraft at Jakhau, close to the Indo-Pakistan maritime frontier and a capital ship at Vadinar in the Gulf of Kutch, according to an official statement issued on Monday. ICGS Samudra Pavak, a specialised Marine Pollution Control Vessel, will now operate from the new Coast Guard Jetty at Vadinar, which was recently inaugurated on March 1 by Minister of State for Defence Ajay Bhatt, it said. The Gulf of Kutch is a fast-developing area, particularly in the oil and port sectors, where 70 per cent of the country's oil is being handled through the facilities available in the region. The Gulf also has a rich biodiversity, living resources, fisheries, coral reefs and mangrove vegetation, which are highly vulnerable in case of an oil spill from surrounding oil industries, and thus the positioning of the specialist vessel by ICG will enhance its capacity to mitigate environmental threats, the statement said. The dedicated Marine Pollution Response Unit was also raised in 2018 at Vadinar to provide professional and quick responses to emerging situations and, most importantly, to be a hub of coordination for all stakeholders in the region, it added. The statement further added that the 95-metre-long ship Samudra Pavak is equipped with advanced pollution response and control equipment to mitigate oil spills. It can perform activities such as containing and recovering oil in cases of oil pollution at sea. The ship is also equipped with two rigid sweeping arms, enabling the containment of spilled oil in motion at sea as well. The ship is being commanded by DIG Aniket Singh, along with 19 officers and approximately 120 enrolled personnel, it added.
Rayong fishing groups sue Star Petroleum over oil spill devastation -A class action lawsuit has been initiated by 14 individuals from Rayong, representing fishing groups and local businesses.They are suing Star Petroleum Refining Company (SPRC), the owner of an underwater oil pipeline that ruptured in 2022, claiming that the subsequent major oil spill has devastated their livelihoods.These individuals are part of a local fishing community known as Pak Nam, Ban Rao, or Pak Nam, Our Home, which encompasses small-scale fishermen and fishery workers in the area. The class action was lodged in the Civil Court on Thursday, assisted by Somchai Armeen, the chairman of a sub-panel on environmental cases at the Lawyers Council of Thailand. The plaintiffs are seeking 4.2 million baht in compensation from SPRC. On January 25, 2022, an estimated 50,000 litres of crude oil leaked into the Gulf of Thailand and onto the beaches of Rayong due to the pipeline rupture. The province’s Fisheries Office reports that this disaster affected at least 2,600 fishermen. Not only were fish stocks in the area severely impacted, but the remaining catches were unsellable due to the oil contamination.The Fisheries Office further stated that, since the spill, local fishermen have been unable to make a living. Their regular catches have significantly dwindled from their usual fishing grounds off the Rayong coast. Many have been compelled to venture further out to sea or halt their fishing activities entirely.The president of the Pak Nam Ban Rao fishing community, Lamom Boonyong, shared that the lawsuit does not solely target the company responsible for the oil spill. Five other parties are also being sued for breaching the environment protection law.The plaintiffs represent various groups with a total of over 800 members. A ruling in their favour could set a groundbreaking precedent, enabling the remaining members to seek compensation. This could potentially cost the company around 240 million baht, reported Bangkok Post.
Giant Kazakh oil field operator denies spill reports - (Reuters) - The operator of Kazakhstan's giant offshore Kashagan oilfield denied reports of an oil spill near the field and said on Tuesday its facilities were working normally. Globus, an ecological organisation in the Central Asian nation, said earlier on Tuesday that satellite imagery had captured a large oil spill in the northern Caspian Sea near Kashagan. Globus director Galina Chernova posted on Facebook that a slick of around 7 square km (2.7 square miles) had formed, citing images from Sentinel-1A, a European satellite. But NCOC, largely owned by Western oil majors which operate the field, said those satellite images showed some different, natural phenomenon, and subsequent shots of the same location showed nothing unusual. The company said it had studied the area and found no irregularities. Kashagan, one of Kazakhstan's largest oil fields, is being developed by the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) consortium, which includes Shell, Eni, TotalEnergies and Exxon Mobil. The ecology department of Kazakhstan's Atyrau region, which borders the Caspian, has also said it would conduct a visual inspection and take samples at the oil production site.
Iran Concerned As Spill In Kazakhstan Threatens Caspian Sea Ecosystem - A possible oil spill in Kazakhstan's Kashagan Oilfield has sparked concern in Iran with pollution risks to the country's Caspian Sea coast. Globus, an environmental organization in Kazakhstan, reported that satellite imagery had detected a significant oil spill in the northern Caspian Sea vicinity of Kashagan. Galina Chernova, director of Globus, shared on Facebook that images from the European satellite Sentinel-1A depicted a slick spanning approximately 7 square kilometers (2.7 square miles). However, North Caspian Operating Company, primarily owned by Western oil majors such as Shell and Exxon Mobil, overseeing the Kashagan field, dismissed the claims, attributing the satellite images to a different, natural phenomenon. The oil pollution in the Caspian Sea poses a significant threat to Iran's environment and economy. As one of the Caspian littoral states, Iran is particularly vulnerable to the consequences of oil spills and pollution in the region. The spills not only endanger marine life and ecosystems but also impact Iran's fishing industry, which relies heavily on the health of the Caspian Sea. The contamination can also affect coastal communities and pose health risks to residents who rely on the sea for their livelihoods. Iran stands as the sole Caspian Sea littoral state refraining from oil and gas extraction activities, contrasting with Russia, Azerbaijan, and other nations which have collectively invested over $160 billion in Caspian fields. In 2024, all littoral states, with the exception of Iran, are striving to boost oil and gas production from the fields. Their combined output from the fields amounted to over 1.2 million barrels per day of oil and 50 billion cubic meters per year of gas in 2023.
One killed, 14 injured as explosion hits petroleum company convoy -- A staff member of Mari Petroleum Company Limited (MPCL) was killed and 14 others injured on Saturday after a powerful blast struck the convoy of its survey team visiting an oil exploration site in Balochistan’s Harnai district, confirmed a senior local administration official. MPCL, the largest petroleum company in Pakistan, was granted a license in 2001 by the central government to explore oil and gas reservoirs across the country. Earlier this year in February, it announced the discovery of highly promising hydrocarbons in Balochistan’s Kohlu district, adjacent to the Harnai district. The area has been a hotbed for Baloch separatists who have frequently targeted security forces and laborers working on strategic projects in the region. Speaking to an international news outlet Arab News, the deputy commissioner of the area, Ali Javed Domki, said the survey staff of MPCL was targeted in an improvised explosive device (IED) explosion while conducting a survey near the mountainous areas of the Harnai district. “One employee of the company was killed and 14 injured when their vehicle was hit by a powerful explosion,” he continued. “[The paramilitary] Levis teams rushed to the spot after the blast and shifted the injured to Quetta for better medical care.”
OPEC oil output falls in March, led by Iraq - Reuters survey – (Reuters) – OPEC oil output fell last month, a Reuters survey found on Monday, reflecting lower exports from Iraq and Nigeria against a backdrop of ongoing voluntary supply cuts by some members agreed with the wider OPEC+ alliance. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.42 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down 50,000 bpd from February, the survey, based on shipping data and information from industry sources, found. Several members of OPEC+, which includes OPEC, Russia and other allies, made new cuts in January to counter economic weakness and increased supply outside the group. Producers agreed last month to keep them in place until the end of June. An OPEC+ panel of key ministers meets on Wednesday to review the market and members’ production, and is not expected to recommend any policy changes ahead of the group’s next full meeting set for June 1. The biggest output reductions in March came from Iraq and Nigeria, the survey found. Iraq last month promised to lower exports to make up for pumping above its OPEC target, a pledge that would cut shipments by 130,000 bpd from February. The 50,000 bpd cut in March, according to the survey, leaves more to do in later months to meet the pledge. Nigerian production also declined, with exports falling more sharply according to some ship trackers as the Dangote refinery took in more cargoes. OPEC fell about 190,000 bpd short of its targeted cuts in March, largely because of Iraq, Nigeria and Gabon pumping more than they had aimed for, the survey found. Gulf producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates each kept output close to their voluntary targets, the survey found, as did Algeria. Output in Iran, exempt from quotas, edged lower, the survey found. Iran is still pumping near a five-year high reached in November after posting one of OPEC’s biggest output increases in 2023 despite U.S. sanctions still in place. There was no significant rise in output from any OPEC country last month, according to the survey. Libya, also exempt from quotas, pumped an extra 20,000 bpd as the country’s output returned to normal after disruption in February.
Crude Benchmarks Touch 5-month Highs on Demand Growth Signs -- Oil futures settled the first session of the second quarter mixed, with the crude and ULSD contracts lent upside support on expectations for increased demand during the second quarter as U.S. manufacturing emerged from contraction, while RBOB futures eased on anticipation for building gasoline inventory following the end of refinery turnaround activity.Oil futures moved between gains and losses during the session, with extended production cuts by OPEC+ through the second quarter supportive while demand growth is uncertain. However, manufacturing reports from the world's two largest economies in kicking off April buttressed optimism for economic growth and support for the middle of the barrel. In the United States, manufacturing grew for the first time since September 2022, ending a 16-month contraction. "Demand remains at the early stages of recovery, with clear signs of improving conditions. Production execution surged compared to January and February, as panelists' companies reenter expansion," said Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. Weak manufacturing has weighed on demand for diesel, which is down 1.7% in 2024 through March 22, according to the Energy Information Administration. EIA did show an improvement in the most recent four weeks of data, which is up 2.2% against the comparable year-ago period, coinciding with growth in domestic manufacturing.NYMEX May ULSD futures reversed off a $2.5787 nearly three-month low on the spot continuous chart to settle up $0.0044 at $2.6271 gallon. Caixin's General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for China, released Monday detailed an ongoing expansion in March, indicating manufacturing growth accelerated domestically and internationally, "adding to evidence of a sustained recovery in the world's second-largest economy despite a prolonged real estate slump and sluggish consumption." Bank of America Global Research in a note to clients Monday pointed to demand growth for refined products during the first two months of 2024, citing data from China's National Bureau of Statistics and Customs office. During January and February, gasoline demand increased 15% against a year ago, diesel demand rose 9%, and jet fuel surged 59%."We attributed the growth of gasoline and kerosene to the fully recovered domestic travels during [the China New Year] compared to still dim consumption in 2M23 right after reopening," said the analysts with the bank's research unit. NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures settled $0.54 higher at $83.71 bbl, trimming an advance to a $84.49 five-month high on the spot continuous chart. ICE June Brent futures also surged to a five-month high on a spot continuous basis at $87.98 bbl, settling Monday's session up $0.42 at $87.42 bbl. U.S. refinery utilization increased for five consecutive weeks through March 22 to 88.7%, EIA data shows, as a lengthy seasonal maintenance period moved to closure. NYMEX May RBOB futures settled down $0.0106 at $2.71 gallon.
Oil up 1%, US WTI at 5-month closing high, market seen tight (Reuters) - Crude prices edged up about 1% on Monday with U.S. futures closing at a five-month high, on expectations that economic growth in the U.S. and China will boost demand, while supplies tighten on OPEC+ output cuts and attacks on Russian refineries.Brent futures for June delivery settled at $87.42 a barrel on Monday, June's first day as the front month. That was up about 42 cents, or 0.5%, from the April 28 settlement price for the June contract. April 29 was the Good Friday holiday.On April 28, the May Brent contract settled at a five-month high of $87.48 a barrel.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 54 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $83.71, their highest close since Oct. 27.The U.S. diesel crack spread , which measures refining profit margins, narrowed to its lowest since May 2023 for a second day.In the U.S., manufacturing grew in March for the first time in 1-1/2 years, but employment at factories remained subdued amid "sizable layoff activity" and prices for inputs rose."Markets interpreted that (manufacturing data) as reducing the chances of meaningful Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) rate cuts, but construction was much weaker and there are a lot of jobs numbers still to come," analysts at ING, a bank, said in a note. Last week, U.S. Commerce Department data showed the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - largely moderated in February, with the cost of services outside housing and energy slowing significantly.Most analysts said the moderation in the PCE price index should keep a June Fed rate cut on the table, which could boost economic growth and increase oil demand.In China, manufacturing activity in March expanded for the first time in six months, according to an official factory survey. China is the world's largest crude importer."Chinese oil demand is arguably the one missing factor outside of geopolitical headlines capable of taking oil prices to the next level," Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho, said in a note. "Strong summer gasoline demand and a rebound in China oil demand could be the one-two punch that support $100 a barrel," Yawger added.In Japan, optimism in the services sector climbed to a 33-year high in the first quarter on booming tourism and rising profits from price hikes, a central bank survey showed.In Europe, oil demand was firmer than expected, rising 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) on the year in February, Goldman Sachs analysts said, versus a forecast for a 200,000-bpd contraction in 2024.On the supply side, top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may raise the official selling price (OSP) in May for flagship Arab Light crude after Middle East benchmarks strengthened last month, according to industry sources.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the country's oil companies will focus on reducing output rather than exports in the second quarter to evenly spread production cuts with other members of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers.Drone attacks from Ukraine have knocked out several Russian refineries, which should reduce Russia's fuel exports as almost 1 million bpd of Russian crude processing capacity is offline.
The Oil Market Continued on its Upward Trend on Tuesday Amid a New Wave of Attacks -- The oil market continued on its upward trend on Tuesday amid a new wave of attacks on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Ukraine struck Tatneft’s Taneco refinery, causing a fire that was soon extinguished. The drone attack on the refinery came after Russia carried out overnight raids against Ukraine’s energy network. The oil market was also well supported as Iran vowed to punish Israel for an airstrike on its embassy in Syria that killed a top military commander. The crude market opened 33 cents higher at $84.04 and posted a low of $83.85. However, the market rallied higher and posted a high of $85.46 amid the geopolitical concerns. The market later erased some of its sharp gains and traded towards the $84.00 level before further buying ahead of the close pushed the market above the $85.00 once again. The May WTI contract settled up $1.44 at $85.15 and the June Brent contract settled up $1.50 to 88.92. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 8.48 cents at $2.7119 and the RB market settling up 4.89 cents at $2.7589. Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, said Iran will retaliate for a suspected Israeli air strike against its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus, after seven Iranian military commanders were killed in an attack. Suspected Israeli warplanes bombed Iran's embassy in Syria on Monday in a strike that Iran said killed seven of its military advisers, including three senior commanders, marking a major escalation in Israel's war with its regional adversaries.Bloomberg reported that near-term market gauges for Brent and U.S. crude have flipped over the past week to reflect more demand for bullish call options than bearish puts. The WTI second month call skew, which shows what traders will pay for options that profit from an increase in prices versus a decline, switched on Tuesday for the first time since November. The change underscores the magnitude of bullish sentiment for crude.Five OPEC+ sources stated that an OPEC+ ministerial panel is unlikely to recommend any oil output policy changes at a meeting on Wednesday as oil prices reached their highest level this year. OPEC+ will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting on April 3rd to review the market and members' implementation of output cuts they have already agreed to extend. Two of the sources said they expected a straightforward meeting, citing the earlier decision to extend output cuts. On Friday, Russia’s Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia has decided to focus on reducing oil output rather than exports in the second quarter in order to evenly spread production cuts with other OPEC+ member countries. When the voluntary curbs expire at the end of June, the total cuts by OPEC+ are set to decline to 3.66 million bpd as agreed in earlier steps starting in 2022. Trans Mountain will complete construction of the final segment of its Canadian oil pipeline expansion in April. The pipeline expansion will nearly triple the flow of crude from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific Coast to 890,000 bpd. The pipeline, scheduled to be in service in the second quarter, is expected to raise Canadian crude prices just as producers increase production.
Brent oil hits highest price this year on fresh supply threats - (Reuters) - Global oil benchmark Brent on Tuesday rose above $89 a barrel for the first time since October, albeit briefly, as oil supplies faced fresh threats from Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and escalating conflict in the Middle East. Brent futures for June delivery were up $1.35, or 1.5%, at $88.76 a barrel by 11:40 a.m. EDT (1540 GMT) after touching a peak of $89.08. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May rose $1.27, or about 1.5%, to $84.98 after touching a peak of $85.46, also the highest since October. A Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia's biggest refineries on Tuesday in an attack that Russia initially said it repelled. Russia's Astrakhan gas processing plant, controlled by energy giant Gazprom also halted production of petroleum products after a repair-related stoppage on March 30, the company said on Tuesday, confirming an earlier report from Reuters. A Reuters analysis of images showing the impact of the attack suggests it hit the refinery's primary oil refining unit, which accounts for about half of the plant's total annual production capacity of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd), though it did not appear to have caused serious damage. Russia, among the top three global oil producers and one of the largest exporters of oil products, has been contending with a spate of Ukrainian attacks on its oil refineries and has mounted its own attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. "The likelihood that continued restricted Russian product exports could further tighten US petroleum supplies has suddenly forced re-calculation of US (oil) balances across the rest of this month and possibly beyond," In the Middle East, Iran has vowed to take revenge on Israel for an airstrike that killed two of its top generals and five other military advisers at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.Israel has been at war against Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza, but direct Iranian involvement could spark a "region-wide conflict with plausible impact on oil supply," Elsewhere, an ecological organisation on Tuesday said a European satellite had spotted an oil spill in the northern Caspian Sea near Kazakhstan's giant Kashagan oilfield.Markets are also looking ahead to Wednesday's ministerial panel meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, together known as OPEC+. The panel is unlikely to recommend any change in oil output policy, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
Oil settles up on supply threats, hits 2024 highs during session (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday after a session in which Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy facilities and escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed the Brent benchmark above $89 a barrel for the first time since October. Brent futures for June delivery settled up $1.50, or 1.7%, at $88.92 after touching a peak of $89.08. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May settled up $1.44, or about 1.7%, to $85.15 after touching a peak of $85.46, also the highest since October. A Ukrainian drone struck one of Russia's biggest refineries in an attack Russia initially said it repelled.Russia's Astrakhan gas processing plant, controlled by energy giant Gazprom, also halted production of petroleum products after a repair-related stoppage on March 30, the company said, confirming an earlier report from Reuters.A Reuters analysis of images showing the impact of the attack suggests it hit the refinery's primary oil refining unit, which accounts for about half of the plant's total annual production capacity of 340,000 barrels per day (bpd). Damage did not appear to be serious.Gasoline and diesel fuel stocks in Russia remain at a high level, Moscow said.Russia, among the top three global oil producers and one of the largest exporters of oil products, has been contending with Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and has also attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure."The likelihood that continued restricted Russian product exports could further tighten US petroleum supplies has suddenly forced re-calculation of U.S. (oil) balances across the rest of this month and possibly beyond," In the Middle East, Iran has vowed to take revenge on Israel for an airstrike that killed two top generals and five military advisers at the Iranian embassy compound in Damascus.Israel has been at war against Iran-backed Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza, but direct Iranian involvement could spark a "region-wide conflict with plausible impact on oil supply," ."Despite a flurry of diplomatic activity meant to turn down the heat on the situation, there is definitely a chance the Iranians response will not be as measured this time," U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official government data will be published Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.Elsewhere, an ecological organisation said a European satellite had spotted an oil spill in the northern Caspian Sea near Kazakhstan's giant Kashagan oilfield.Markets are also looking ahead to Wednesday's ministerial panel meeting of OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allied producers. The panel is unlikely to recommend any change in oil output policy, OPEC+ sources told Reuters.The demand outlook perked up as March data showed an expansion in Chinese manufacturing activity for the first time in six months and in the U.S. for the first time in a year and a half.
WTI Dips After Surprise Crude Inventory Build --Oil prices are extending gains to new cycle highs (WTI $86) ahead of the official inventory data (after API reported across the board draws). The move followed reports that OPEC+ chose to stick with oil supply cuts for the first half of the year, keeping global markets tight and potentially sending prices higher. API
- Crude -2.29mm
- Cushing -751k
- Gasoline -1.46mm
- Distillates -2.55mm
DOE
- Crude +3.21mm
- Cushing -377k
- Gasoline -4.26mm
- Distillates -1.27mm
The official data surprised with a crude inventory build (API draw) but product draws continued... Source: Bloomberg The Biden administration added 591k barrels to the SPR last week, but that might be it for a while as the Biden admin has now canceled new purchases (for taxpayers' own good)...
Oil Futures Advance, Fade Gains as Mixed Data Slows Ascent -- Nearest delivered oil futures settled Wednesday's session higher but faded gains following mixed macroeconomic data and an unexpected build in commercial crude inventory in the United States.ICE June Brent futures rallied to a $89.99 five-month high on the spot continuous chart, settling the midweek session up $0.43 at $89.35 per barrel (bbl). NYMEX May West Texas Intermediate futures edged up $0.28 with a $85.43 bbl settlement, trimming an advance to a $86.20 five-month high on a spot continuous basis.U.S. commercial crude inventory increased 3.21 million bbl to a 451.417 million bbl, more than seven-month high, during the week ended March 29, while up 6.375 million bbl during the most recent two-week period, Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported midmorning. Crude stocks increased 20.352 million bbl, or 4.7%, during the first quarter, with most of the build occurring in mid-February amid deeper-than-expected seasonal maintenance at refineries. Another weekly falloff in U.S. crude exports, down 159,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 4.022 million bpd last week, boosted the net import rate to a 2.596-million-bpd eight-week high.Domestic demand for distillate fuel dropped back a steep 533,000 bpd to 3.495 million bpd, crushing optimism for a rebound in demand amid an improvement in manufacturing activity in March. Distillate fuel supplied to the U.S. market is down a steep 245,000 bpd or 6.3% against the comparable year-ago period during the four weeks ended March 29 at 3.671 million bpd, according to EIA data.Gasoline inventory was drawn down a steep 4.256 million bbl during the final week of March, pressing stocks to a 227.816 million bbl 14-week low. Gasoline supplied to the U.S. market jumped 521,000 bpd to a 9.236 million bpd five-month high in closing out the first quarter, EIA data shows.NYMEX May RBOB futures firmed with a $ 2.7609-gallon settlement, paring an advance to a $2.7910 seven-month high on the spot continuous chart. NYMEX May ULSD futures settled up $0.0205 at $2.7324 per gallon.More private payroll jobs were created in March than expected, according to the ADP National Employment Report released Wednesday morning which showed job growth of 184,000 compared with expectations for 150,000 new jobs. Job gains were widespread, led by leisure and hospitality, and included new employment in construction and manufacturing. Worker pay expanded last month."Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services," said Nela Richardson, chief economist with ADP.The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the closely watched nonfarm employment report for March at 7:30 a.m. CDT Friday, with the market anticipating job growth of 200,000.The data is in modest conflict with a slowdown in the service sector, with the Institute of Supply Management on Wednesday morning reporting a 1.2% decline in its purchasing manager's index to 51.4 last month. The sector continues to grow, although service sector employment contracted for a second month in March.
Oil settles at 5-month high, gains capped by jump in US crude stocks (Reuters) - Oil prices settled at their highest levels since October on Wednesday on investor concerns about supply disruptions due to conflict in the Middle East, although a jump in U.S. crude oil inventories capped the gains.Brent futures rose 43 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $89.35 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures gained 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $85.43 a barrel.Both contracts were up more than a dollar earlier in the session due to growing concerns about the potential for a supply deficit during the peak summer driving season.A meeting of top ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia, kept oil supply policy unchanged on Wednesday and pressed some countries to boost compliance with output cuts.The group said some members would compensate for oversupplies in the first quarter. It also said Russia would switch to output rather than export curbs."If those compensation cuts get implemented, and Russia switches their export cuts to crude cuts, OPEC+ production should trend lower in the second quarter - a period when demand seasonally picks up," Also on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was cautious about future interest rate cuts due to recent data showing higher-than-expected job growth and inflation.The comments were positive for oil because they indicated solid U.S. economic growth, In the Middle East, Iran has vowed revenge against Israel for an attack on Monday that killed high-ranking Iranian military personnel. Iran is the third-largest producer in OPEC.Brent and WTI futures have hit five-month intraday highs for three consecutive sessions, also lifted as Ukraine'sattacks on Russian refineries cut fuel supply there. Oil market participants are figuring out how to price in these developments and for how long, Bank of America Global Research raised its 2024 Brent and WTI forecasts to $86 and $81 a barrel, respectively, it said in a note.Oil's gains were capped after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude stocks increased by 3.2 million barrels in the week to March 29. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a decrease of more than 1.5 million barrels, in line with data reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday."The EIA report went in the other direction on crude oil from what the API reported yesterday, so that has helped pause the rally a little bit,
Oil prices fall amid sluggish demand in the US --Oil prices have shown a limited decline with a demand drop in the US, although global geopolitical tension put upward pressure on prices.International benchmark Brent crude traded at $89.20 per barrel at 10.49 p.m. local time (0749GMT), a 0.17 percent drop from the closing price of $89.35 per barrel in the previous trading session. At the same time, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $85.23 per barrel, down 0.23 percent from the previous session's close of $85.43 per barrel.The US is signalling a decline in demand, with data indicating an increase in crude stocks in the largest oil-consuming country in the world.US commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.2 million barrels last week against the market expectation of a decrease of around 300,000 barrels, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. A fall in gasoline stocks in the country by approximately 4.3 million barrels to 227.8 million barrels, however, raised hopes of a demand recovery, limiting price falls.Uncertainty over the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts combined with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's "wait-and-see" messages continue to influence prices. Following a Fed meeting in which the bank kept its monetary policy unchanged, Powell said that a tight monetary policy continues to put pressure on demand, especially in interest-sensitive spending categories.Based on the higher-than-expected results from the latest data on both employment and inflation, Powell noted that inflation data in January and February remained above the low values seen in the second half of last year."Given the strength of the economy and the progress made in inflation so far, we have time to allow incoming data to guide our policy decisions," Powell said.Meanwhile, oil prices tested five-month highs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and worries over global supply disruptions.Israel continues its assault on besieged Gaza despite calls for a ceasefire. In response, Yemen's Houthi group has been targeting cargo ships going to and from Israel in the Red Sea, one of the world's most frequently used sea routes for oil and fuel shipments.
The Oil Market Rallied Sharply Higher in the Afternoon Amid the Intensifying Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East - The oil market posted an outside trading day on Thursday after the market retraced some of its previous gains early in the session and later rallied sharply higher in afternoon trading amid the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The market traded mostly sideways for much of the day as it traded back below the $85.00 level and posted a low of $84.64 early in the afternoon. However, the oil market bounced off that level on news that Israeli embassies across the U.S. had been placed on high alert due to increasing threats of an Iranian attack on Israeli diplomats. On Thursday, the U.S. issued its strongest public rebuke towards Israel, with President Joe Biden calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and warning that U.S. policy on Gaza will be determined by whether Israel takes steps to address the safety of Palestinian civilians and aid workers. The crude market extended its gains to over $1.70 as it rallied to a high of $87.22 ahead of the close. The May WTI contract settled up $1.16 at $86.59. The June Brent contract settled up $1.30 at $90.65 after breaching the $90.00 level for the first time since October. Meanwhile, the product markets ended higher, with the heating oil market settling up 89 points at $2.7413 and the RB market settling up 3.33 cents at $2.7942.The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel’s military scrambled GPS signals on Thursday as the country braced for possible retaliation by Iran or one of its allied militias for a suspected Israeli airstrike Monday on an Iranian diplomatic building in Syria. The attack killed a senior Iranian general and six other military officials. Israel has sporadically disrupted GPS signals since the start of its war with Hamas in early October. However, the GPS disruptions have intensified since the Monday strike in Damascus. The IDF announced that it had decided to temporarily halt leave for combat units. The head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate, Aharon Haliva, warned Israel is facing “complex days” ahead amid the increasing threats of strikes by Iran. Analysts with expertise in Iran and its elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps say the chances of a direct Iranian strike on Israel are slim, particularly because Iran does not have the capabilities to defeat Israel militarily and is struggling to contain public unrest at home. Meanwhile, an adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said to expect a form of retaliation on Thursday or Friday, saying Iran would choose an action proportional to the Israeli attack in Damascus.The White House said U.S. President Joe Biden called on Thursday for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza during a phone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. According to a White House statement, President Biden called on Israel to take immediate steps “to address civilian harm, humanitarian suffering, and the safety of aid workers” and “made clear that U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps.” Trans Mountain said it expects its expanded oil pipeline system will start commercial operations on May 1st. The company said that with the appropriate approvals from the Canada Energy Regulator and completion of remaining construction activity, Trans Mountain will commence transporting crude oil on the expanded pipeline system.
Oil prices climb more than $1 per barrel on supply risk (Reuters) - The Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil benchmarks rose more than $1 a barrel during trade on Friday as markets watched for signs of any direct conflict between Israel and Iran that could further tighten supplies.Brent crude settled at $91.17 a barrel, up 52 cents, or 0.57%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $86.91 a barrel, up 32 cents, or 0.37%.Both benchmarks settled on Thursday at their highest levels since October.Brent and WTI are set to notch more than 4% gains this week after Iran, the third-largest OPEC producer, vowed revenge against Israel for an attack that killed high-ranking Iranian military personnel."If Iran directly attacks Israel, that's never happened before," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. "It's just another geopolitical risk domino about to fall."Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack on Iran's embassy compound in Syria on Monday.Ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries in Russia may have disrupted more than 15% of Russian capacity, aNATO official said on Thursday, hitting the country's fuel output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, this week kept its oil supply policy unchanged and pressed some countries to increase compliance with output cuts."Further clampdowns on adherence to quotas should see output fall further in Q2," ANZ analysts Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari wrote in a note."The prospect of a tighter market should see a drawdown in inventories during the second quarter."Meanwhile, U.S. job growth soared in March, easily beating expectations, according to official data released on Friday which also showed a steady increase in wages.The gain of 303,000 jobs last month points to likely robust oil demand but potentially delays anticipated interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve later this year.Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for a third week in a row for the first time since October, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Friday.The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 620 in the week to April 5, the lowest since early February.
Crude Benchmarks at 24-Week Highs on Expanded Global Risk - The U.S. and international crude benchmarks settled Friday's session at 24-week highs as the risk to global security heightened this week with a high-profile killing of an Iranian general. The ULSD contract ended at a three-week high on a bullish U.S. employment report highlighting strong economic growth. June Brent futures on the Intercontinental Exchange advanced $0.52 to a $91.17 per barrel (bbl) settlement Friday, trading as high as $91.91 bbl as Israel prepared for a possible retaliatory strike by Iran after a missile strike on Monday killed General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Analysts said hostilities between Israel and Iran came out of the shadows this week and could lead to direct confrontation. Tehran has so far used proxies in attacking Israel, seeking to avoid an attack by Israel or luring the U.S. into a conflict. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) May West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled up $0.32 at $86.91 bbl Friday, with the U.S. crude benchmark paring an advance to $87.63 bbl. NYMEX May ULSD futures gained $0.0317 on the session with a $2.7730 gallon nearly three-week high settlement on the spot continuous chart. ULSD has now advanced for six consecutive sessions after testing key trendline support in late March with the contract under pressure from weak demand amid a prolonged contraction in freight hauling and manufacturing activity. The Institute of Supply Management on Monday released its manufacturing Index for March showing factory activity grew for the first time since September 2022. Continued strength in the U.S. labor force bodes well for the economy with the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday morning reporting job growth of 303,000 in March, far outpacing expectations. Job growth in construction, with 39,000 new positions reported, outpaced the 19,000 average over the previous 12 months. Construction is an important driver of diesel demand. While bullish for the economy, with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow indicator calling for first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 2.5% before Friday's employment report, wage growth again expanded -- up 4.1% year-on-year in March. A growing labor force and higher wages add to inflation that is seen pushing back the start of a rate-cutting cycle by the Federal Reserve that was seen beginning in June. CME's FedWatch Tool shows a 50.9% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will maintain the federal funds rate in its current 5.25% by 5.5% target range at its June 12 meeting, up from 34.2% on Thursday. Consumer spending could be restrained as inflation appears to be sticky while interest rates stay higher for longer, potentially slowing driving demand. NYMEX May RBOB futures eased $0.0056 from a seven-month high settlement on a spot continuous basis to $2.7886 gallon.
Israeli Airstrike Hits Iranian Consulate Building in Damascus, High-Level Iranian General Reported Killed - On Monday, an Israeli airstrike leveled an Iranian consulate building that’s next to the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital of Damascus, marking a significant escalation in Israeli attacks on Iranians in the region.At least seven people were killed in the strike, including Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran has confirmed the death of Zahedi, who oversaw the IRGC’s Quds Force operations in Syria and Lebanon and is vowing a harsh response.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani Tehran will “decide on the type of response and punishment against the aggressor.” According to AP, the IRGC said the strike also killed Zahedi’s deputy and five other Iranian officers.The bombing of the diplomatic facility comes a few days after Israel launched some of its heaviest airstrikes in Syria that reportedly killed 52 people, including Syrian soldiers and members of Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Israel has also killed multiple members of the IRGC since it ramped up airstrikes in Syria after October 7.
Russia Voices Outrage As Death Toll Rises To 11 After Israeli Attack On Iran's Damascus Embassy --Monitors cited in AFP report the death toll from Monday's Israeli air strike on the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus has risen to 11. "The death toll from the Israeli strikes on the Iranian embassy annex has risen to 11: eight Iranians, two Syrians and one Lebanese -- all of them fighters, none of them civilians," AFP quoted the war monitor as saying.Regional and international reaction came hours later, with Lebanese Hezbollah -- a close ally of Iran -- vowing that Israel will be "punished" for the attack. As we detailed earlier (below), several top IRGC commanders were killed in the strike at a moment a high-level military meeting was taking place.Russia's Foreign Ministry reacted as follows: "We strongly condemn this attack on the Iranian consular office in Syria. We consider any attacks on diplomatic and consular facilities, the inviolability of which is guaranteed by the relevant Vienna Conventions, to be categorically unacceptable." However, Russia has by and large taken a back seat when it comes to responding to Israeli attacks on Syria. Israeli aircraft typically fire on Syria from over nearby Lebanese airspace, but Syrians have increasingly wondered why Moscow doesn't use its significant anti-air systems parked in the region to defend against such attacks on its ally the Assad government. But Russia and Israel apparently reached a status quo deal years ago, which allow for the Israeli raids as long as they are ostensibly targeting 'Iranian assets'. Among the slain in Monday's attack was Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a top commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who reportedly oversaw Quds Forces operations in Syria and Lebanon. Clearly Israeli's intelligence capabilities are significant regarding Iranian movements and operations inside Syria, given Israel clearly knew the where and when of the top level meeting.A strike like this -- against an embassy which is supposed to be 'protected' by international diplomatic norms upheld by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations -- is somewhat unprecedented and so marks a massive escalation by Israel. David Asher, a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute and former senior State Department official under the Trump administration had this to say in terms of what's likely to come next:"This is a huge strike against Iran’s Qods Force. Expect to see Iranian missile retaliation directly against Israel. Things are moving beyond proxy war into direct conflict. Crude prices should make a decisive move higher on macro risk," he told ZeroHedge.Others are currently speculating that Israel may be trying to provoke a war with Iran to get the US directly involved on its side. The Hezbollah situation along Israel's northern border continues to be at crisis levels, given that an estimated 80,000 Israeli citizens remain evacuated from their homes.
Israel bombs Iran’s embassy in Damascus: The Middle East on the brink of region-wide war - Israel’s bombing of the Iranian embassy in Damascus on Monday, which killed three senior leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and three others, is an act of war against Iran for which Washington and its NATO allies bear political responsibility. The bombing marks a major new stage in the Israeli war on Iran, because its target is Iranian territory, according to international law. The Israeli regime has long conducted a lawless foreign policy of targeted murder, repeatedly bombing Iranian and Syrian officials—particularly after the US murder of IRGC General Qassem Soleimani in 2020 in Iraq. Its latest action, however, threatens to provoke a direct war between Iran and Israel, as well as Israel’s NATO imperialist backers. Yesterday, Iranian officials vowed retaliation. “We will make [Israel] regret this crime and others it has committed,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said. The Russian, Chinese and Saudi foreign ministries also issued statements condemning the strike. The Biden administration reportedly contacted Iranian officials just after the strike, denying responsibility and claiming Israeli officials had only notified it of the strike until only minutes before it took place. However, that Israel felt it could take such action, whether or not it notified Biden, is because Washington and its NATO imperialist allies have given it a blank check throughout six months of genocide against Gaza. It is difficult to believe that Israel would have taken this action without coordination with the White House. If that was the case, it would indicate that the Biden administration is seeking an enormous escalation of war in advance of the November election. In any case, the United States, Britain and France all refused to denounce the Israeli strike last night in a UN Security Council meeting. Effectively endorsing Israel’s rationale for the strike, US Ambassador to the UN Robert Wood said he was “concerned by reports that terrorist leaders and elements were allegedly present at this facility and condemn Iran’s continued coordination, training and arming of terrorists and other violent extremists.” This week, US officials brazenly defended the Israeli army’s massacre of 400 people at the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre baldly declared, “Hamas should not be operating out of hospitals.” US State Department spokesman Mike Matthews also indicated he would endorse an Israeli assault on Rafah, where 1.5 million Palestinian refugees are living in tent cities, stating that a scenario where “Israel does nothing about the Hamas fighters that continue to exist in Rafah” is “not acceptable.” Washington and its NATO allies green-light the Israeli genocide, which has killed 32,000 Palestinians, because they are preparing similar crimes across the Middle East. At the outset of the Gaza genocide, Washington sent carrier battle groups and nuclear missile submarines to the region that were explicitly targeted at Iran. Today, as Israeli officials discuss invading Lebanon to attack the Hezbollah militia, plans are well advanced for the NATO imperialist powers to use Israel as a proxy in new neo-colonial wars against Lebanon, Syria and beyond. For a decade, Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah forces have fought in Syria alongside government forces against NATO-backed “rebel” Islamist or Kurdish nationalist militias. The 13 years of the NATO war for regime change in Syria have devastated the country, leaving a half million dead and over 10 million refugees. Israel decapitated the Iranian military command in Syria and Lebanon Monday amid a global war the imperialist powers are waging for domination of Eurasia. While Washington and its NATO allies fight Russia in Europe, arming the far-right Ukrainian regime in Kiev, they are also attacking Russia and its allies in the Middle East.
Iran vows revenge for alleged Israeli strike on consulate in Syria - Iran is vowing to hit back after an alleged Israeli strike hit near the Iranian Embassy in Syria, killing at least seven people, including a senior commander in Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei lamented the Monday death of Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, the most high-profile loss for Tehran since Israel began fighting the Iranian-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas in October. “The evil regime will be punished by the hands of our brave warriors,” Khamenei said in a Tuesday statement, according to the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency. “We will make them regret this crime and the like by God’s grace.” The alleged Israeli strike hit the consulate section near the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria, killing Zahedi and six other IRGC officers, including another high-ranking official, Brig. Gen. Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi. Zahedi was a senior commander in the IRGC’s Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, where Iran has a large influence, and his death prompted an outcry across the country Monday and Tuesday. Israeli has repeatedly struck at IRGC officers over the years in Syria, but the death of Zahedi may provoke a more passionate response from Tehran. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi convened a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council on Monday night and afterward said “appropriate decisions” were made to respond to Israel, according to the Islamic Republic News Agency. Israel “has put blind assassinations on its agenda in its attempts to save itself,” Raisi said in a statement after the attack. The Israeli military declined to comment on the alleged strike when contacted by The Hill. Israel has rarely acknowledged strikes on Iranian officers in Syria. The United Nations Security Council is expected to meet later Tuesday to discuss the strike, after Iran called for an emergency session.
Iranians Brand Government As Toothless Following Militant Attack - In the wake of a spate of deadly militant attacks in southeastern Iran, criticism of the government's intelligence and security failures has intensified, labeling it a "paper tiger." Iran International has been flooded with messages from viewers critical of the Iranian government. These messages highlight a perceived discrepancy between the government's harsh treatment of its own citizens and its apparent inefficacy in dealing with external threats. In a late-night attack on Wednesday, the Sunni militant group Jaish ul-Adl targeted at least five military posts and Revolutionary Guard bases in the cities of Chabahar and Rask. Clashes continued throughout the night, with the government announcing the neutralization of all attackers by Friday noon. At least 28 individuals were killed in the clashes, including 18 militants and 10 Iranian military personnel. Full casualty figures for the injured are unavailable, but reports indicate at least 15 Guards were wounded from a single unit. Jaish ul-Adl has a well-documented history of targeting Iranian forces, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, in areas bordering Pakistan. Designated a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2010, the group has also been implicated in civilian casualties from past bombings. The attack comes just a few days after an Israeli airstrike on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed seven Revolutionary Guards, including a high-ranking general. Since the outbreak of the Gaza War in October, suspected Israeli strikes have eliminated at least 18 IRGC commanders and advisors. In response, Iran has issued repeated threats of "harsh revenge," with pronouncements from regime officials, including the Supreme Leader himself. A recurring theme in the messages sent to Iran International was that the attacks in Sistan-Baluchestan and Syria prove that the Islamic Republic is unable to respond to or prevent the attacks abroad and at home. “The Islamic Republic's real strength is in suppressing its own people," one of person said. “The government is able to quickly identify and punish any Iranian who expresses the slightest opposition to the regime.” In response to the attacks in Syria and Sistan-Baluchistan Province, the Islamic Republic has resorted to threatening Israel with revenge. However, according to an audio file, this is merely a display of strength, as the Islamic Republic lacks the capability to defeat Israel. Another Iranian highlighted that the Tehran's claims of its military power are a "sham" as it has not been able to defeat Jaish ul-Adl, a small guerrilla group that repeatedly carry out attacks in Iran. “They can't even handle Jaish ul-Adl, a guerrilla group, and yet they claim they can defeat Israel with all its equipment and intelligence superiority." In January, IRGC targeted what it claimed were hideouts of the Sunni militants in Pakistan's Baluchistan with missiles. Islamabad retaliated with heavy fire a day later, marking the first attack by a foreign country inside Iranian soil since the end of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988). Iranians slammed the government for not responding to Pakistan’s airstrikes. Frequent criticism of the Islamic Republic is that it maintains power solely through the repression of its own citizens. Its strength is only in "killing its own people," said an Iranian in an audio file sent to Iran International. The Islamic Republic's intelligence capabilities are only good for "identifying opponents of compulsory hijab, harassing and imprisoning them, killing young protesters and silencing trade union activists." All in all, these comments suggest a widespread skepticism about the Islamic Republic's claims about its military and intelligence capabilities. Instead, Iranians perceive the regime's true strength to lie in its ability to suppress dissent.
Eight Killed, 30 Wounded in Overnight Market Blast in Northern Syria - An overnight car blast tore through a crowded marketplace in the rebel-held northern Syrian city of Azaz,killing at least eight people and wounding some 30 others. Two children were reported among the fatalities.The market was unusually busy that night because of the holy month of Ramadan, and shoppers were flocking to the marketplace to buy clothing for their children for the upcoming Eid al-Fitr celebration.As ambulances and rescue workers flocked to the scene, the crowd was in near panic, fearing a second explosion, as many bombing plots strike a second time during the chaos.Azaz lies due north of Aleppo, near the Turkish border. The city is the seat of the current Syrian Interim Government, the self-proclaimed government. The city is occupied by pro-Turkey rebel factions, and police say they’ve tightened checkpoints in response to the attacks. The bombing in Aleppo Province comes just two days after the deadliest Israeli attack in several years on the area around the Aleppo airport. This major attack killed at least 52, most of them Syrian soldiers.
Israel's Savage Destruction Of Gaza's Healthcare System Is Exactly What It Looks Like by Caitlin Johnstone --Israel has ended its assault on the al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza, because there is nothing left to assault. The facility — the largest medical complex in Gaza where hundreds of civilians had been sheltering — is now an empty, unusable, burnt-out husk. Witnesses report hundreds of corpses in and around the complex, with video footage showing human body parts protruding from the earth and bodies with zip ties on their wrists. Israel is currently doing its usual song and dance where it claims the hospital was a Hamas headquarters and everyone it killed there was a “terrorist”, but at this point the only people buying that schtick are the ones who desperately need to. This was a massacre of profound savagery. It’s as plain as day to anyone who isn’t deeply invested in pretending otherwise. Israel, which at the beginning of the Gaza onslaught had adamantly denied that it would ever attack a hospital, has since launched hundreds of documented attacks on Gaza’s healthcare services and has destroyed most of its healthcare system. Just today the director-general of the World Health Organization announced that an Israeli airstrike on Gaza’s al-Aqsa Hospital compound killed four people and injured seventeen. Oxford University professor Nick Maynard, who spent time working at al-Aqsa Hospital earlier this year, recently accused the IDF of “systematically targeting healthcare facilities, healthcare personnel and really dismantling the whole healthcare system” in Gaza.“It’s not just about targeting the buildings, it’s about systematically destroying the infrastructure of the hospitals,” says Maynard. “Destroying the oxygen tanks at the al-Shifa hospital, deliberately destroying the CT scanners and making it much more difficult to rebuild that infrastructure. If the objective is to target Hamas, why trash the hospital’s medical equipment? If the objective is to target Hamas, why destroy the whole complex and make it unusable as a healthcare facility? Logically we can only conclude that it isn’t about targeting Hamas at all. It’s about destroying Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure.Why would Israel want to destroy Gaza’s healthcare infrastructure? The answer to that question has been clear for months: to make the land uninhabitable for the Palestinians. The same reason they’re deliberately starving Gazans, destroying their homes, continually moving them from place to place and bombing every “safe zone” they create. This is naturally giving rise to a situation in which the inhabitants of Gaza will either die or flee to some other country — which just so happens to be exactly what Israel wants them to do.
Details show Israel's airstrike on World Central Kitchen staff was deliberate - On Monday night, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) killed seven international aid workers from World Central Kitchen (WCK) in Gaza in an airstrike on their vehicle convoy as it was returning to their warehouse.The attack used precision munitions directly targeting the roofs of the vehicles, which displayed large logos clearly identifying their occupants as humanitarian workers.World Central Kitchen had informed the Israeli military of its travel plans, meaning that the Israeli military would have been fully aware of the vehicles it was attacking.Herzi Halevi, the chief of staff of Israel’s armed forces, claimed that the attack was a “grave mistake” and a “misidentification.” While White House spokesman John Kirby declared that “there’s no evidence” that the attack was “deliberate.”These claims are belied both by the direct circumstances of the attacks and by Israel’s systematic targeting of food distribution workers as part of its systematic effort to starve the population of Gaza.In a statement condemning the attack, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the attack brings the number of humanitarian workers killed in Gaza “to 196 – including more than 175 members of our own UN staff.”Over the past month, Israel has killed hundreds of Palestinians in Gaza at food distribution centers in so-called “flour massacres,” including one in late February that killed at least 112 and injured more than 700.Francesca Albanese, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, said in a statement on Tuesday, “Knowing how Israel operates, my assessment is that Israeli forces intentionally killed #WCK workers so that donors would pull out and civilians in Gaza could continue to be starved quietly.”In its investigation of the killing, Al Jazeera found that the three vehicles transporting the aid workers were targeted one at a time.After leaving the World Central Kitchen’s warehouse, the first vehicle in the convoy was struck approximately one mile down the road. Al Jazeera reported that “the injured were transferred from the first targeted car to another armoured vehicle to expedite their transport.”Al Jazeera’s investigation found that “the second vehicle was targeted approximately 800 metres (2,525 feet) away from where the first was hit. The third car was targeted about 1.6km (nearly a mile) away from the second car.” Based on these facts, Al Jazeera’s Sanad Verification Agency “found that the attacks were, in fact, intentional.”World Central Kitchen CEO Erin Gore said in a statement, “This is not only an attack against WCK, this is an attack on humanitarian organizations showing up in the most dire of situations where food is being used as a weapon of war. This is unforgivable.”The aid organization said the victims were from Australia, Poland, United Kingdom, a dual citizen of the US and Canada, and Palestine.After World Central Kitchen released the names and photos of the aid workers later in the day on Tuesday, Gore added, “These are the heroes of World Central Kitchen. These 7 beautiful souls were killed by the IDF in a strike as they were returning from a full day’s mission. Their smiles, laughter, and voices are forever embedded in our memories. And we have countless memories of them giving their best selves to the world. We are reeling from our loss. The world’s loss.”In a statement Tuesday, US President Joe Biden attempted to verbally distance himself from the massacre, saying, “I am outraged and heartbroken by the deaths of seven humanitarian workers from World Central Kitchen.” But when asked whether the killing was a war crime, White House spokesman John Kirby categorically asserted that it was not and that Israel has not committed any violations of international law during the entire conflict.“To date,” Kirby said, the US government “have not found any incidents where the Israelis have violated international humanitarian law.”When asked by a shocked reporter whether the White House was really claiming that Israel has “never violated international humanitarian law ever in the past five to six months,” Kirby replied, “the State Department has looked at incidents in the past and has yet to determine that any of those incidents violate international humanitarian law.”
José Andrés says Israel ‘systematically’ targeted aid workers -- Renowned chef José Andrés, founder of the food charity World Central Kitchen (WCK), called out the Israeli military on Wednesday after seven of his organization’s workers were killed in one of its airstrikes, saying the group was “systematically” targeted “car by car.”A convoy of WCK vehicles was struck multiple times by the Israeli military on Monday after leaving one of the group’s warehouses, where it dropped off food aid. The convoy was driving along a route previously approved by the Israeli military in a “deconflicted zone” when it was attacked.“This was not just a bad luck situation where ‘oops’ we dropped the bomb in the wrong place,”Andrés told Reuters. “Even if we were not in coordination with the [Israeli military], no democratic country and no military can be targeting civilians and humanitarians.”The seven WCK volunteers killed in the strike were from Australia, Poland, the United Kingdom and Palestine, and one was a dual citizen of the U.S. and Canada.The Israeli military took responsibility for the strike, claiming it was caused by a miscommunication and false intelligence that a Hamas militant was with the group. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that the Israelis are “conducting a thorough inquiry.” “This happens in war,” Netanyahu said in a statement.
Israel Bombed Foreign Aid Workers Three Times Until They Were All Killed - Israel launched three separate drone strikes on an aid convoy in its attack that killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers, Haaretz reported on Tuesday. One Israeli drone fired three missiles at three cars that were clearly marked with the WCK’s logos and were traveling on roads preapproved by the Israeli military. After the first car was hit, wounded survivors were picked up by a second car. After that car was hit, they went into the third car. Then, the Israeli drone finished the job. The attack killed three British nationals, a dual American-Canadian citizen, a Palestinian, an Australian, and a Polish citizen. Israeli officials have claimed the airstrikes were a mistake, but the meticulous nature of the operation suggests it was a targeted killing of aid workers and part of Israel’s campaign to starve Palestinians, as several aid organizations have suspended operations in Gaza in response. According to Israeli sources speaking to Haaretz, the three cars were hit after escorting an aid truck to a food warehouse in central Gaza.
'Indictments Now,' Says UN Expert After Israel Massacres World Central Kitchen Workers -The United Nations special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories demanded criminal consequences for Israeli officials on Tuesday after the country's forces attacked a World Central Kitchen convoy in the Gaza Strip, killing seven workers and sparking global outrage."Israel is crossing every possible red line, still with full impunity," Francesca Albanese wrote in a social media post, noting that the Israeli military's attack on the WCK convoy came on the same day that itbombed Iran's consulate in Syria."Sanctions now," Albanese wrote. "Indictments now."The International Criminal Court, the global body tasked with trying individuals for war crimes, is currently investigating alleged Israeli crimes in the Gaza Strip.Early accounts described the Israeli attack on the WCK convoy on Monday as a singular strike, but reporting and on-the-ground testimony have since made clear that Israeli forces launched three successive strikes on the vehicles.WCK described the attack as "targeted," given that the convoy coordinated its movements with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the vehicles were clearly marked with the humanitarian aid group's logo. Photographs released in the wake of the attack show that an Israeli missile tore through the WCK logo on the roof of one of the targeted vehicles.According toHaaretz, "an Israeli drone fired three missiles one after the other" at the convoy, reportedly believing that a suspected "terrorist" was traveling with the aid workers."At some point, when the convoy was driving along the approved route, the war room of the unit responsible for security of the route ordered the drone operators to attack one of the cars with a missile," the Israeli newspaper reported, citing unnamed IDF sources.After the first car was hit, survivors attempted to flee and transfer the wounded into the other cars—at which point Israeli forces launched missiles at the two remaining vehicles.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the strikes "unintentionally" killed innocent WCK staffers, but the Haaretzreporting indicates the IDF knowingly launched several lethal attacks on the aid convoy.
Israel uses starvation as a weapon of war - The use of starvation by Israel as a weapon of genocide in Gaza is an objective fact, for which Nazi Germany is the main modern precedent, as Holocaust survivors who remain alive attest. It is in this tradition of the Nazi regime and the genocidal policies toward the Jews and Soviet population that the Israeli government has borrowed a page out of history. Five-plus months into the military onslaught on the Gaza Strip, a great majority of Gazans are facing emergency or catastrophic levels of food insecurity as a result of Israel’s genocidal policies that have blockaded the entry of food and water trucks into the enclave. The next few months will only exacerbate this grave situation that could see thousands die of starvation every week. Last week’s report by Francesca Albanese, UN Special Rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian territories, affirmed in the strongest terms, “[There are] reasonable grounds to believe that the threshold indicating the commission of … acts of genocide against Palestinians in Gaza has been met. The overwhelming nature and scale of Israel’s assault on Gaza and the destructive conditions of life it has inflicted reveal an intent to physically destroy Palestinians as a group.” Currently, according to conservative official estimates, casualties in Gaza are at nearly 32,500 deaths, of which over 70 percent have been women and children. The over 8,000 missing are presumed dead, their bodies buried under the rubble of the daily onslaught by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), who have been armed to the teeth with weapons supplied by the US. At least 75,000 have been injured in the more than five months since Israel initiated its genocidal campaign, many with “life-changing mutilations” for which medical attention is severely lacking, risking a high incidence of fatal consequences when left untreated. Over 70 percent of residential areas have been destroyed, and 80 percent of the 2.23 million people have been internally displaced, with 1.5 million now crammed into Rafah, awaiting the impending military assault that is being planned with Washington’s direct involvement. A 10-year-old Palestinian boy, Yazan al-Kafarna, who died due to what his doctor said was extreme muscle wastage caused primarily by a lack of food. [AP Photo/Hatem Ali] The entire enclave is now reliant on aid trucks to bring in food, water and emergency provisions, which are trickling in at a fraction of what is required to sustain life. Many families are having to make do with one meal a day if they are lucky. Limited to a piece of flat bread and some canned cream cheese or a tin of fava beans, the diet provides barely 300 to 400 calories per day, starvation rations that lack the essential nutrition to sustain life for very long. Infants and toddlers, who require at least 1,000 calories a day to sustain their high metabolic demands, are especially vulnerable due to their limited reserves. If their caloric intake is restricted for even the briefest amounts of time, they quickly begin to lose weight as their body breaks down the small amount of carbohydrate and fat stored in their liver and tissues. Once these are depleted, to preserve the most important functioning organs like the brain, the body then resorts to cannibalizing proteins from muscles, including the intestines and the heart. The immune systems of the very young are weakened, making them much more susceptible to deadly consequences of infection. Indeed, they are the most vulnerable and the first casualties in Israel’s employment of starvation as a weapon of war. They often are the first to die, and they die at double the rate of adults. If they survive, they face the prospect of ill health for the rest of their lives. Their growth may be stunted, their organs affected, and they may have long-lasting cognitive developmental trauma. Children around 10 years of age require around 1,600 calories. Adult women and men need somewhere around 1,800 to over 2,200. However, mothers who are breastfeeding must supplement their diet to continue feeding their newborns. There are approximately 60,000 pregnant women in Gaza facing severe malnutrition and dehydration and the prospect of giving birth without any medical resources. Around 5,000 women are giving birth each month under hazardous conditions. Starvation—the prolonged undernourishment of the body that leads to suffering or death from hunger—over several weeks or months can result in specific diseases like anemia from low iron stores or beriberi (vitamin B1, or thiamine, deficiency) that leads to difficulty walking, loss of sensation in hands and feet, paralysis of lower legs, mental confusion, pain, speech difficulties, tingling and eye twitching. The weight loss is substantial, as evidenced by the gaunt faces of children who are half their normal weights. The main disabling symptoms are feeling faint or dizzy. Profound weakness means the starving become bed-bound. As the body tries to compensate, metabolism slows, and temperature regulation begins to fail, with the feeling of gnawing chill permeating the body. Kidneys cannot function, and the immune system is unable to fight off diseases. The thyroid function becomes substantially reduced. Abdominal cramping and diarrhea are common symptoms which exacerbate dehydration. Without intravenous fluids, blood pressure drops, and heart rates become slow or erratic. Mentally, clinical depression sets in. When nothing is left for the body but to scavenge muscle tissue, death is not far off. Even the muscles of the heart are not spared to provide sustenance. One danger in attempting to rescue people after prolonged starvation are potential cardiac problems requiring close monitoring of these patients in a medical care unit. If refeeding is suddenly initiated, there is a risk of sudden cardiac failure and ensuing death. There can be a precipitous drop in potassium levels. Increase in fluid volumes can precipitate cardiac failure. With the end of starvation, cardiac compensation mechanisms may overshoot and lead to arrythmia or cardiac arrest. Although the etiology of these uncertain compensatory mechanisms is unclear, these may be related to the loss of cardiac muscle in parallel to skeletal muscle wastage.
Genocide Prevention Group Issues 'Urgent SOS Warning' as Israel Takes Aim at Rafah -The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention, an organization named after the Polish lawyer who coined the term genocide, issued what it called an "urgent SOS warning" on Tuesday for Palestinians in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, where more than half of the enclave's population is currently sheltering with nowhere else to go.The group said Israel's flurry of airstrikes on Rafah last week "could be the opening salvo to Israel's promised ground invasion of the town, which is home to the critical crossing to Egypt." Reutersreported that one of the Israeli strikes killed 11 members of a single family."This bombing is a genocidal act conducted by Israel against a trapped civilian population," the Lemkin Institute said.The group's statement came after U.S. and Israeli officials met virtually on Monday to discuss the Biden administration's proposed "alternatives" to a large-scale ground invasion of Rafah, which is currently home to more than 1.5 million people—most of them displaced from other parts of the enclave.The meeting came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahucanceled earlier plans for bilateral Rafah talks following the U.S.decision last week not to veto a cease-fire resolution at the United Nations Security Council.Instead of launching a full-scale ground assault on the city, the Biden White House pushed Israel during the meeting "to take more targeted actions to kill or capture Hamas leaders while limiting civilian impacts,"according toThe Associated Press.The White House said in a statement following Monday's virtual meeting that "the two sides over the course of two hours had a constructive engagement on Rafah.""They agreed that they share the objective to see Hamas defeated in Rafah," the statement reads. "The U.S. side expressed its concerns with various courses of action in Rafah. The Israeli side agreed to take these concerns into account and to have follow-up discussions between experts."In its statement on Tuesday, the Lemkin Institute noted that U.S. President Joe Biden has described an Israeli ground invasion of Rafah as a "red line" for his administration. Politicoreported last month that Biden would "consider" placing conditions on U.S. military aid to Israel if it goes ahead with an invasion of Rafah.Echoing a growing number of U.S. lawmakers from both chambers of Congress, the Lemkin Institute urged Biden to comply with U.S. laws prohibiting weapons transfers to countries violating human rights and obstructing the delivery of American humanitarian aid—both of which Israel has done repeatedly since October."If the U.S. president fails to act on his own words to prevent the further genocide of the people of Gaza and to behave in accordance with the rules-based international order he purports to prize," said the Lemkin Institute, "his betrayal of humanity will be remembered by the world forever."
Israel Creates 'Kill Zones' in Gaza Where Anyone Who Enters Gets Shot Israel has been creating “kill zones” in the Gaza Strip in areas where the Israeli military is operating, and anyone who enters will get shot even if they’re unarmed civilians, Haaretz reported on Sunday.The report said anyone killed in a designated kill zone is labeled a “terrorist” even if they “never held a gun in their lives,” and they are “often civilians whose only crime was to cross an invisible line drawn by the IDF.”One Israeli reservist who was recently in north Gaza said the “feeling we had was that there weren’t really rules of engagement there.”Other sources in the IDF told Haaretz that Israel’s claim that 9,000 out of the 32,000 Palestinians killed in Gaza are “terrorists” is not valid. “In practice, a terrorist is anyone the IDF has killed in the areas in which its forces operate,” an Israeli reserve officer said.A senior officer in Israel’s Southern Command said it was “astonishing to hear the reports after every operation regarding how many terrorists were killed.” He added that Hamas fighters don’t operate in large groups, saying, “You don’t need to be a genius to realize that you don’t have hundreds or dozens of armed men running through the streets of Khan Yunis or Jabaliya, fighting the IDF.”Another reserve officer who spoke with Haaretz said he was tasked with telling senior IDF officers how many “terrorists” were killed in operations his men carried out and said no one “can determine with certainty who is a terrorist and who was hit after entering the combat zone of an IDF force.”The world got a glimpse of the indiscriminate policy when Al Jazeera published a video of an Israeli drone killing four unarmed men. The video shows the men walking in an open area of Khan Younis when a drone strike hits them. Two of the men instantly died, and the other two were finished off with a third and fourth missile strike. The last man who was killed was limping, then crawling away in a desperate attempt to flee.A senior IDF officer confirmed to Haaretz that the four men were “unarmed” and that they “didn’t endanger our forces in the area in which they were walking.”
Israel Keeps Getting More Murderous by Caitlin Johnstone -- In the span of just a few hours we learned that Israel committed a horrific massacre at al-Shifa hospital, struck an Iranian consulate in Syria killing multiple Iranian military officers, and killed a vehicle full of international aid workers in an airstrike. This murderous regime is out of control. Israel is so dedicated to protecting civilian life that it’s deliberately gunning down unarmed Palestinians whenever they walk within firing range and then adding them to its “Hamas terrorists killed” tally. Haaretz reports that the IDF has set up “kill zones” in Gaza where they just shoot anything that moves, with an IDF reserve officer saying the number of Hamas members Israel claims to have killed is massively inflated because “In practice, a terrorist is anyone the IDF has killed in the areas in which its forces operate.” Haaretz notes that the three escaped Israeli hostages the IDF gunned down in December had wandered into one of these kill zones. A Doctors Without Borders physician went on Sky News to talk about Israel’sdeliberate destruction of Gaza’s healthcare system, and the Murdoch shill anchor who was interviewing her asked her if Hamas was active in al-Shifa hospital fighting Israelis. The doctor, Tanya Haj-Hassan, told him “I am just shocked that we’re still having this conversation” and went on to describe how Israel’s assault on Gazan healthcare workers is so methodical that Gazan hospital staff have been changing out of their scrubs before leaving work because Israeli troops are picking off anyone in scrubs.
Israeli Siege Causes Sharp Rise in Newborn Baby Deaths in Gaza - The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday that newborn mortality rates are rising sharply in the Gaza Strip due to the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign and starvation blockade.“From different doctors, particularly in the maternity hospitals, they’re reporting that they’re seeing a big rise in children born with low birth weight, and just not surviving the neonatal period because they’re born too small,” said WHO spokeswoman Margaret Harris, according to AFP.Harris said the WHO doesn’t have precise statistics on the newborn mortality rate due to the devastation in Gaza and Israel’s attacks on hospitals. The Israeli military recently withdrew from the Al Shifa hospital in northern Gaza after a 15-day siege, leaving the buildings completely destroyed and a pile of dead bodies in its wake.Doctors in Gaza have said they’re also seeing a rise in women losing their pregnancies and stillborn births due to malnutrition and lack of clean drinking water. “The doctors told me malnutrition had a big role in this,” Mai Kamal Zaqout, a 22-year-old Palestinian woman who had a stillbirth, told NBC News.“I was not able to eat properly. I didn’t take vitamins. There was nothing available. … The water was polluted. I was feeling it,” said Zaqout, whose husband was killed by an Israeli airstrike.According to the UN’s Population Fund, there are about “155,000 pregnant women and new mothers are struggling to survive” in Gaza. “For the 5,500 women who will give birth in the coming month, accessing adequate health care is an unimaginable challenge. Only three maternity hospitals remain in the Gaza Strip, and they are overwhelmed with patients. Doctors and midwives – desperate for medicines and supplies – are struggling to provide adequate care to newborns,” the Population Fund said on its website.
Israel’s government passes law to temporarily shut down Al Jazeera Israel’s legislature passed a law Monday paving the way to shut down the Qatar-based Al Jazeera news network, under legislation allowing for the temporary ban of foreign news networks that the government deems a threat to national security.Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would “act immediately” to implement the law against Al Jazeera, accusing the Qatari-funded news outlet of supporting Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack against Israel and serving as a mouthpiece for the U.S.-designated terrorist organization. “The terrorist channel Al Jazeera will no longer broadcast from Israel. I intend to act immediately in accordance with the new law to stop the channel’s activity,” Netanyahu posted in Hebrew on X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. The law passed Israel’s Knesset 71-10 in its second and third reading in the Knesset plenum, the Times of Israel reported. Orders to shut down foreign news outlets deemed a national security threat can only be carried out for 45 days but can be renewed for further 45-day periods. The law is set to expire July 31. Both Israel and the U.S. are critical of Al Jazeera’s coverage of Israel broadly, and of its coverage of Israel’s war against Hamas since the Oct. 7 attack. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called for the Qatari government to tone down anti-Israel incitement in Al Jazeera’s coverage of the aftermath of the October attack. But the Biden administration said it was concerned over the Israeli passage of the law. “We’ve seen the reports and certainly I’m going to refer to Israel for what they may or may not be considering. But if it is true, a move like this is concerning. We believe in the freedom of the press. It is critical. It is critically important,” White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Monday.
The Plan Is To Turn Palestine Into A Historical Footnote So It's Too Late To Save It by Caitlin Johnstone -- The Zionist plan for the Palestinians is to kill them and drive them off their land by whatever cruelty is necessary, with the understanding that one day people will look back on it in the same way they look back on the genocides of other indigenous populations, saying “Yeah it was bad, but that was in the past so there’s nothing we can do about it.” The Zionists take a long view of history, understanding that all the outrage and backlash they’re facing over Gaza right now will one day be irrelevant if they can carry out their plan for the territory today. They know that future generations of Israeli settlers will be able to say “Sure there was an ethnic cleansing in Gaza and a bunch of mass atrocities were committed, but that all happened before I was born; I had nothing to do with it. What do you want me to do, give up the home I’ve lived in all my life? That’s nuts.” And they’re absolutely right: if Israel succeeds in driving the Palestinians out of Gaza (and assuming humanity doesn’t destroy itself via nuclear armageddon or environmental collapse), that is exactly the future they can expect to have. The genocidal atrocities against the Palestinians will be something kids learn about in history class. Israel itself might even be able to be a lot more honest about what happened, once the Palestinian problem has been fully resolved and the threat of a Palestinian state no longer exists. So they do what they need to do in the meantime, with the understanding that this will one day all be rubbed away by the sands of time. They commit what atrocities they need to commit, they lie in whatever ways they need to lie, and they exert influence wherever they need to exert influence until they can get this thing locked down. Once they have, they can sit back and let old father time do the rest of the work for them. That’s why it’s so important to oppose this thing now: because once Palestine is erased, it’s highly unlikely that it can ever be restored. We see what an uphill battle it is to obtain any rights at all for indigenous populations in other nations founded on genocidal settler-colonialism, and they haven’t even been driven out of their national borders into foreign countries. The sins of the present and the recent past are much, much easier to correct than the sins of the distant past. That’s why the Zionists are so keen to move these atrocities into the “sins of the distant past” category.
Western allies face genocide complicity if support for Israel continues -- An attack on a humanitarian convoy, killing several foreign aid workers. The destruction of a hospital with hundreds killed inside. An air raid on a consulate in a foreign country.These are just some of Israel’s actions in Gaza and the region this week, adding to the accusations of war crimes levelled against it, and even genocide.But, even as Israel’s Western allies face the possibility of charges for complicity in war crimes, many continue to send weapons to Israel and withhold funds from the main United Nations agency working in Gaza, despite the very real threat of famine among its population of roughly two million people.The charges of genocide – and the continuing case brought forward by South Africa at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) – have done little to shift any of this.Late last month, the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in the Palestinian Territory Francesca Albanese sent a warning to Israel’s Western allies, issuing a report stating that there were clear indications that Israel was violating the UN Genocide Convention, and emphasising that complicity in genocide was also “expressly prohibited, giving rise to obligations for third states”.On this basis, Nicaragua has already taken Germany to the ICJ for violating international law by continuing to arm Israel. Individual groups around the world are also pursuing cases against their governments.And yet, Germany continues to provide arms to Israel. Other large-scale providers of weapons, such as the US, the UK and Australia have also stopped short of suspending weapons sales – even as more than 32,000 people have been killed in Gaza and more are killed every day.“A failure by states such as Germany, the UK and the US to reassess how they are providing support to Israel provides grounds to question whether those states are violating the obligation to prevent genocide or could even at some point be considered complicit in acts of genocide or other violations of international law,” Michael Becker, a professor of international human rights law at Trinity College in Dublin who has previously worked at the ICJ, told Al Jazeera.These countries are finding it harder to plead ignorance. In a leaked recording on Saturday, Alicia Kearns, a Conservative member who is the chair of the UK parliament’s foreign affairs committee, is heard saying that UK government lawyers have advised that Israel has breached international humanitarian law, but the British government has not announced it.Kearns stood by the comments when later asked.According to Charles Falconer, former UK lord chancellor, if the British government concedes that Israel has violated international law, it will have no choice but to stop sharing intelligence with Israel.A spokesperson for the UK foreign ministry stated that advice on Israel’s adherence to international humanitarian law remained under review and that: “Ministers act in accordance with that advice, for example when considering export licenses.”Specific legal advice to the government was confidential, they said. A leading British barrister, however, warned that the UK and other countries will be fearful of any future legal culpability. “All governments have teams of lawyers providing constant advice on who they are exporting weapons to,” Geoffrey Nice, who led the prosecution of Slobodan Milosevic, told Al Jazeera. “It’s inconceivable that the advice the British government has received [on events in Gaza] is materially different from that other countries have received.” “If we ever reach the point of a criminal hearing into the conduct of this war, as I expect we may, you’ll see many of the larger countries who are now backing Israel doing everything they can to prevent Israeli witnesses taking the stand to say, we were acting with their consent as they provided the arms.”
As Strikes Escalate, 100,000 Estimated to Have Fled from South Lebanon - Near daily strikes in southern Lebanon have sent a large portion of the population fleeing deeper into the country. Just a few weeks ago, 90,000 residents were estimated as being displaced, but reports are now that fully 100,000 people of the region’s 150,000 have fled.Since the strikes started in October, some 313 have been killed and more than 1,000 wounded. But the longer-term impact, however, may be the economic damage to the region’s farming.Attacks have destroyed some 800 hectares (8 million square meters) of farmland. Between this and population displacement, nearly 75% of the residents in the area have lost their ability to earn a living by farming.Prime Minister Najib Mikati says the government must declare the south of the country to be an agricultural disaster zone.While the government has promised to compensate those whose homes were damaged in the strikes, there is no number as to how many homes will be included. Early estimates put it “in the thousands.” This large number is a clear result of Israel striking “Hezbollah buildings” that almost invariably turn out to be houses in small villages.
As Attacks Escalate, Israel DM Looks To Prepare Public for Lebanon War - Israeli Army Chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has reportedly signed off on a plan to launch a major war on the country’s northern front with Lebanon. This comes amid growing escalation of Israeli attacks and a palpable sense that diplomatic efforts are not gaining much momentum in avoiding the conflict.Lt. Gen. Halevi had ordered plans prepared last month, and reportedly held an assessment with northern commander Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin in which they both decided that the plan was appropriate.Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is reportedly having his staff work on various proposals for gearing up the general public for an “all-out” military conflict with Hezbollah, and ominously enough, for the possibility of war with Iran.The goal, according to reports, is to “raise awareness” of the possibility of a war, even if one is not imminent, and “Not to panic, but to raise awareness.” Israel Home Front Command has long been preparing for sheltering civilians in the north in the event the conflict breaks out.Embarking on a PR campaign to raise awareness about a northern war in Lebanon signals further escalation on the road to war. The public is being advised of upcoming conflict.DM Gallant is reportedly interested in making this campaign work quickly but is also worried about how Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah might react if Israel starts raising awareness for the invasion into Lebanon’s south.Nasrallah has long downplayed the threat of an Israeli invasion, saying he does not believe Israel is prepared for another full-scale war in Lebanon while it is in the middle of a war in the Gaza Strip.
What Really Happened on October 7? - Maureen Tkacik - It’s October 7, 2023, a few minutes before 7 a.m. A gang of Hamas fighters in a stolen pickup drives up upon a roadside bomb shelter crammed with maybe two dozen terrified ravers. One shoots off maybe seven bullets into the shelter, when another concocts a different plan. “That one is alive! That one, pull him by his hair!” he yells at his comrades, who dump a blood-streaked body into the back of the truck. “Don’t kill them, we need them as hostages,” the fighter yells at the others, as if he has just remembered, a dozen dead bodies too late, what he was supposed to do in the unthinkable circumstance he hadn’t been shot dead yet. They begin piling partygoers, limp but still alive, into the truck. The footage is from the body camera of a dead Hamas fighter obtained by Al Jazeera International, whose journalists Israel has repeatedly assassinated and which the Netanyahu government has been threatening to shutter for the past five months for allegedly “acting as [a] megaphone for Hamas’s military, operational, and propaganda messages.” But the Qatari investigative news agency’s new documentary October 7, which premiered this morning on YouTube, seems distinctly disinterested in preaching to the anti-Zionist choir. The Hamas portrayed in Al Jazeera’s tightly curated selection of footage swiftly disables the radar and communications towers, breaches the border fence, and seizes a dozen military bases—“We went into every corner and with our pure feet we stepped into every single hiding place, and there were no men to fight us,” one remarks, dumbfounded—only to spend the rest of the morning wandering around aimlessly, like a video game kid who doesn’t know what to do with himself now that he’s finally beaten the game. “They really don’t seem to know what exactly what they’re doing,” a military analyst observes, watching two fighters squabble with one another and raid the corpse of a dead colleague for extra ammunition. Whatever is responsible for the eerie, implausible absence of meaningful Israeli military resistance in the early hours of the attack—and October 7 echoes earlier reports in speculating that misogyny likely played a role—it does not seem to be the strategic genius of Hamas.The Israeli regime and its noxious mouthpieces in Washington have spouted so many lies about what Hamas did on October 7 that the conversation is often driven toward rebutting the charges that the group “beheaded 30 babies” or sliced a four-month-old fetus out of a dead woman, or gouged the eyes and breast out of a mother and father before moving on to the fingers and toes of the son and daughter they executed at an invaded kibbutz, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken testified before Congress in the weeks after the attack.But as October 7 shows, just because those claims were false doesn’t mean Hamas covered themselves in glory. They left a pile of dead bodies on the Nova festival stage before swiping what looked like a doughnut from a gas station convenience store, firing semiautomatic weapons randomly into car windows and port-a-potties, and killing more than three dozen Thai guest workers, though one who describes to Al Jazeera being dragged past a room full of his murdered colleagues suggests Gazan civilians led his particular abduction. “Hamas fighters committed crimes on October 7,” the narrator points out. “The Israeli media, however, focuses not on the crimes Hamas committed, but on crimes they did not.”Indeed, it is almost as though the Israelis channeled all of the efficiency and efficacy that failed their military on October 7 into the deployment of a vast edifice of insta-mythology designed to bolster a notion of Palestinians as an inherently subhuman people. Chief of this project is a man named Yossi Landau, an ultra-Orthodox first responder who operates throughout Israel and, occasionally, in South Florida. Landau, who is interviewed in the documentary, was the original source of the beheaded babies lie, and most of what formed the basis for the New York Times’debunked investigation into the alleged systematic sexual abuse perpetrated by Hamas on October 7, among other enthusiastically shared tales of horror.In interviews, Landau comes off like the used-car salesman you’d expect. Discussing one claim about finding a pregnant woman whose “stomach was butchered open” and whose “baby that was connected to the cord was stabbed,” he insists to a reporter that “if you want to see the picture I have the picture of it.” When the reporter apologizes that he “can’t see a baby here,” Landau stammers that he “didn’t think when we were, we didn’t think, we didn’t think to camera everything …”The photo, it turns out, depicts what the narrator describes as “an unidentifiable piece of charred flesh,” which as it happens is not so unlike many of the bodies that fill Landau’s accounts of unspeakable depravity. “The bodies is telling us the stories that happened to them,” he explains in one video. As October 7 notes, the IDF has repeatedly debunked those stories on the basis of basic forensic evidence, most notably when it revised downward by 200 its estimated body count upon realizing some of the dead bodies are Palestinian.Which brings us to one of the incomprehensibly less-scrutinized parts of the disaster explored in October 7: the hundreds of civilians, dozens of their cars, and numerous homes and buildings charred beyond comprehension on the day of the attack. Hamas had some rockets, but did it really have the weaponry capable of mounting this level of destruction? Western journalists have reported that Hamas was fully responsible. Al Jazeera’s documentary is much more circumspect, and in a way, so is the IDF.
US and UK Have Bombed Yemen 148 Times Since January - At least 148 missile strikes have hit Yemen since the US and the UK launched a new bombing campaign against the Houthis in January, according to the Yemen Data Project (YDP). YDP said in the first 80 days of the US-led bombing campaign that started on January 12, a total of 339 munitions have hit Yemen, averaging more than four per day. The UK has joined the US in several rounds of missile strikes, but most have been unilateral US attacks on Houthi-controlled Yemen.YDP said there was a drop in strikes in March, with 35 recorded, compared with 79 in February. The group said there were no reports of civilian casualties in March after 11 were recorded in February.Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said in March that a total of 34 Houthi fighters had been killed since the Yemeni group, officially known as Ansar Allah, began targeting Israel-linked shipping in the Red Sea last year in response to the onslaught in Gaza.The US-British bombing campaign has done nothing to deter the Red Sea attacks and has only escalated the situation as the Houthis began targeting American and British shipping in response. In January, President Biden acknowledged the bombing wasn’t “working” but vowed to continue anyway.The Houthis have been clear that the only way they would stop targeting Israel-linked shipping is if the slaughter of Palestinians in Gaza comes to an end. But the US chose escalation instead of pressuring the Israelis to stop by leveraging military aid.The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the group only became more of a capable fighting force during that time.
Pro-Palestine Group Attacks UK Defense Factory Producing F-35 Stealth Parts - The sudden influx of unvetted migrants from around the world into Western nations poses a significant national security threat. Leftist-corporate media outlets are ignoring the mounting risks associated with unvetted migrants. However, citizen journalists on the 'free speech' social media platform X have outlined some of these dangers. Let's begin with the latest data from the UK that shows the number of migrants crossing the English Channel soared to a new record high for the first three months of the year, according to BBC News. The surge in migrants continues despite Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's pledge to 'stop' the migrant boats - though the latest data shows the PM is not doing enough. Labour's shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock said: "Despite all the evidence to the contrary, Rishi Sunak keeps on telling the British people that small boat arrivals are coming down and his promise to stop the boats remains on track." Kinnock added: "It's time to get a grip and restore order to the border."The latest evidence of national security risks emerging comes after a pro-Palestine group attacked the manufacturing facility of defense company Teledyne Technologies in the town of Baildon. X user "Palestine Action" said, "Actionists are reaching every corner of this weapons factory to bring it down for Palestine!"
Zelensky Signs Law Lowering Conscription Age to 25 - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a bill into law on Tuesday that lowers the age of eligible conscripts for mobilization from 27 to 25, Ukrainska Pravda reported.The bill was passed by Ukraine’s parliament last May but had been sitting on Zelensky’s desk for nearly a year since expanding the draft is unpopular among Ukrainians as war fatigue has been setting in.Zelensky also signed two other laws aimed at getting more troops for the failing war effort against Russia. One requires men who have been declared only “partially fit” for service to undergo another medical examination.Another law will establish an electronic database for military-age men between the ages of 17 and 60, as Ukraine looks to mobilize hundreds of thousands of fresh troops. Under martial law, men ages 18 to 60 cannot leave the country.Zelensky signed the laws a few weeks after Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) visited Ukraine and demanded a change to the conscription laws. “I would hope that those eligible to serve in the Ukrainian military would join. I can’t believe it’s at 27,” Graham said. “You’re in a fight for your life, so you should be serving — not at 25 or 27. We need more people in the line.”
Six Russian warplanes ‘destroyed and eight damaged’ in Ukraine attack on Putin air base - Ukraine destroyed six Russian warplanes and damaged eight more in an attack on an air base on Thursday night, according to reports. If confirmed, it will be a blow to Vladimir Putin’s air force as his ground troops gradually gain more ground in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv attacked Russia’s Morozovsk military air base in the Rostov region, destroying six Russian warplanes, intelligence sources told the Reuters news agency on Friday. The source did not say how the attack was conducted but that eight more warplanes had also been damaged. Russia’s RIA news agency cited the Russian defence ministry earlier as saying Russian air defences had downed 53 Ukrainian drones overnight, most of them over the Rostov region. The Morozovsk air base is said to house Russian tactical bombers like the Sukhoi Su-24 and Su-24M that Moscow’s air force uses to fire guided bombs at the Ukrainian military and frontline towns and cities. The source described the operation as an important one. A drone was also reportedly downed over the Engels-2 airfield in the Saratov region which hosts Russian strategic bombers. The governor of Russia's Rostov-on-Don region said early on Friday that an electricity substation was damaged in the attack and that efforts were ongoing to restore power. Unable to rapidly produce long-range missiles and with limited access to those made by Western allies, Kyiv has focused on developing long-range uncrewed vehicles to strike back at Russia, which has used a sprawling arsenal of missiles and drones to bomb Ukraine Kyiv also said on Friday that it had shot down 13 drones launched by Russia against Ukraine's southern regions overnight. Shahed drones were destroyed over the Zaporizhzhia, Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions, officials said. Russia also used two S-300/S-400 missiles and three Iskander-M ballistic missiles in the attack. One of the attacks targeted energy infrastructure in the Odesa region but air defences repelled all four drones, Ukraine's southern group of forces said on the Telegram messaging app.
Ukraine Plan of Crocus City Hall Attack to Start Ethnic Pogroms, Civil War in Russia – John Helmer - “The unity of Russia’s multiethnic society,” President Vladimir Putin toldthe Russian Trade Union Congress on Thursday, “is the main fundamental condition of our success. In this connection, and based on the initial results of the investigation, we have grounds to believe that the main goal of those who masterminded the bloody and heinous terrorist attack in Moscow was to damage our unity.”Putin is repeating the message – four times in two weeks: earlier onMarch 23, March 25, and April 2 — because it happens to be true.What also happens to be true is that during the Yeltsin period, when asked by Moscow university students what I thought of anti-semitism in Russia, I said: Russians are the most primitive white tribe in the world – they are hostile to the other tribes, the Jews, Chechens, Armenians, Chukchi, Uzbeks, Tajiks — each one of them equally. After this sociology was elaborated, invitations to lecture at Moscow universities stopped.The sociological problem which Russia’s enemies have is that the foreign white tribes, like the Galicians of the Ukraine, the Anglo Saxons, and the Blin-Noodle gang ruling Washington, make the primitive sociological mistake of thinking they can trigger intercommunal warfare inside Russia, to weaken and break it up. The British Secret Service (MI6) made their first abortive attempts at this during the Bolshevik revolution and the civil war following. The US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and MI6 have been plotting the same thing since 1945, increasing the resources and accelerating their efforts in the Caucasus during the Yeltsin administration of the 1990s.It is therefore no surprise they have convinced their Ukrainian counterparts to implement the same scheme. On Tuesday of this week,The Times of London headlined this plan “Ukraine Stokes Anti-Immigrant Tensions in Russia”. The newspaper – in the 19th century nicknamed “The Thunderer”, now owned by Rupert Murdoch, nicknamed “The Dirty Digger” — reported an interview with Andrei Kovalenko, head of the Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation (CCD). By weaponizing local ethnic communities like the Tajiks in Russia, the operational objective, according to Kovalenko, is “to exploit divisions and distrust among the Russian public.”Kovalenko is conceding the Ukraine strategy behind the Tajik gunmen’s attack on the Crocus City Hall on March 22. But the foreign tribesmen have misread the Russian sociology again. The attack has failed in its war objective.Follow the story and the evidence of the Crocus City Hall events here.
Rising global threats force ‘epoch-making’ shift in world order The return of great power competition across the globe is forcing countries to adapt, spurring major changes to alignment and spending from Europe to the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East. The change is everywhere on the map — but most evident in countries like Sweden and Japan as the nations make dramatic changes to meet rising threats from Russia and China. “I’ve described the security environment as the most dangerous I’ve seen in 40 years in uniform,” said U.S. Adm. John Aquilino, head of Indo-Pacific Command, before the House Armed Services Committee this month. The rise of new tensions has driven up defense spending worldwide. In an annual report this year, the International Institute for Strategic Studies found defense spending was up 9 percent worldwide last year, reaching $2.2 trillion. In a breakdown by country, a majority of nations increased defense spending from 2021 to 2023. European countries collectively drove spending up from about $350 billion in 2021 to more than $388 billion in 2023, while Asian nations bumped that from more than $500 billion to higher than $510 billion in the same time frame. The spending bumps go hand-in-hand with public opinion. A November Ipsos poll of 30 countries found 84 percent of people believe the world is becoming more dangerous, up from 74 percent in 2018 (the poll was conducted before the Israel-Hamas war). “I don’t think we’re days away from World War III, but I do think that the world is becoming more unstable,” said Joseph Shelzi, an analyst at the Soufan Group, a global security and intelligence firm. “There’s a higher risk now, like peer adversaries engaging in high intensity conflict. We see that playing out now in Ukraine, and we see the possibility for that to play out in the streets of Taiwan.”
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