FOMC Minutes: "Additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation" was Moving to Target - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee June 11–12, 2024. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants emphasized that they were strongly committed to their 2 percent objective and that they remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm the purchasing power of households, especially those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. Participants highlighted a variety of factors that were likely to help contribute to continued disinflation in the period ahead. The factors included continued easing of demand–supply pressures in product and labor markets, lagged effects on wages and prices of past monetary policy tightening, the delayed response of measured shelter prices to rental market developments, or the prospect of additional supply-side improvements. The latter prospect included the possibility of a boost to productivity associated with businesses' deployment of artificial intelligence–related technology. Participants observed that longer-term inflation expectations had remained well anchored and viewed this anchoring as underpinning the disinflation process. Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent. ... In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants noted that progress in reducing inflation had been slower this year than they had expected last December. They emphasized that they did not expect that it would be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate until additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the Committee's 2 percent objective. In discussing their individual outlooks for the target range for the federal funds rate, participants emphasized the importance of conditioning future policy decisions on incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks. Several participants noted that financial market reactions to data and feedback received from contacts suggested that the Committee's policy approach was generally well understood. Some participants suggested that further clarity about the FOMC's reaction function might be provided by communications that emphasized the Committee's data-dependent approach, with monetary policy decisions being conditional on the evolution of the economy rather than being on a preset path. A couple of participants remarked that providing more information about the Committee's views on the economic outlook and the risks around the outlook would improve the public's understanding of the Committee's decisions.
FOMC Minutes Show "Vast Majority" Expect Economy To Cool, See Deflationary Effects Of AI -- Since the last FOMC statement on June 12, oil, gold, stocks, the dollar, and even some of the bond market are higher (in price)...The shorter-end of the curve is now lower in yield since the last FOMC, but the long-end still higher (even with today's yield tumble)... Source of four graphs: Bloomberg The US macro picture has deteriorated even more significantly relative to expectations, now at its weakest since Dec 2015...And thanks to today's macro weakness, rate-cut expectations have risen back to the same levels they were immediately after Powell's press conference... So, given the hawkish shift in the DOTS, what does The Fed want us to know from today's Minutes.Here are the key takeaways from minutes of the Federal Reserve's June 11-12 meeting, released Wednesday (via Bloomberg): Willing to wait... Officials did not expect it would appropriate to lower borrowing costs until “additional information had emerged to give them greater confidence” that inflation was moving toward their 2% goalEconomic expectations...The “vast majority” of Fed officials assessed that economic growth “appeared to be gradually cooling......and most participants remarked that they viewed the current policy stance as restrictive”Officials said inflation progress was evident in smaller monthly gains in the core personal consumption expenditures price index and supported by May consumer price data that were released hours before the rate decisionThey appear set of the narrative that AI will save the world too (through deflation)...Participants highlighted a variety of factors that were likely to help contribute to continued disinflation in the period ahead. The factors included continued easing of demand–supply pressures in product and labor markets, lagged effects on wages and prices of past monetary policy tightening, the delayed response of measured shelter prices to rental market developments, or the prospect of additional supply-side improvements.The latter prospect included the possibility of a boost to productivity associated with businesses’ deployment of artificial intelligence–related technology. Participants observed that longer-term inflation expectations had remained well anchored and viewed this anchoring as underpinning the disinflation process. Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percentBut The Fed seems divided on how to 'react' to data (markets or macro)...Some officials emphasized the need for patience in allowing high rates to continue to restrain demand......while others noted that if inflation were to remain elevated or increase further, rates “might need to be raised”A “number” of officials said the Fed needs to stand ready to respond to unexpected weakness, and several flagged that a further drop in demand may push up unemployment rather than just reduce job openingsWSJ Fed-Watcher Nick Timiraos chimes in to confirm the more dovish bias of the Minutes...While there isn't an obvious signal about the policy path in the FOMC minutes, the discussion about inflation and labor market developments offers little to suggest fear of overheating or policy being too loose. For example, discussion of businesses' reduced pricing power:pic.twitter.com/vvorZHy8jv— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) July 3, 2024
Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$34 Billion in June, -$1.74 Trillion from Peak, to $7.22 Trillion, Lowest since November 2020Quantitative Tightening so far has removed 41% of Treasury securities and 29% of MBS that pandemic QE had added. by Wolf Richter - Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet dropped by $34 billion in June, to $7.22 trillion, the lowest since November 2020, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today. Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $1.74 trillion.At its FOMC meeting in May, the Fed outlined how it will slow QT in order to get the balance sheet down as far as possible without blowing anything up, by slowly approaching the unknown level below which liquidity is too low, to avoid another debacle, such as the repo market blowout in September 2019 that caused the Fed to undo a big part of QT-1 (blue in the chart above).June was the first month at the new pace of QT that reduces the cap for the Treasury runoff to $25 billion a month, but removes the cap for the MBS runoff, and whatever MBS come off, will just come off; any amount over $35 billion will be reinvested in Treasury securities, in line with the plan to get rid of MBS entirely over the “longer term.” QT by category:
- Treasury securities: -$23 billion in June, -$1.33 trillion from peak in June 2022, to $4.38 trillion, the lowest since September 2020.The Fed has now shed 41% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasury securities that it had added during pandemic QE.Treasury notes (2- to 10-year) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. The roll-off is now capped at $25 billion per month, and about that much rolled off in June, minus the inflation protection the Fed earns on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) which is added to the principal of the TIPS.
- Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$19 billion in June, -$404 billion from the peak, to $2.34 trillion, the lowest since July 2021. The Fed has shed 29% of the MBS it had added during pandemic QE.MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. But sales of existing homes have plunged, and mortgage refinancing has collapsed, and so fewer mortgages got paid off, and passthrough principal payments to MBS holders, such as the Fed, have been reduced to a trickle. As a result, MBS have come off the balance sheet at a pace that has been below $20 billion in most months.
- Bank liquidity facilities. Only two bank liquidity facilities currently show a balance: The Discount Window and the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). The other bank liquidity facilities — Central Bank Liquidity Swaps, Repos, and Loans to the FDIC — are either at zero or near zero.
- Discount Window: +$200 million in June, to $6.4 billion. During the bank panic in March 2023, loans had spiked to $153 billion.The Discount Window is the Fed’s classic liquidity supply to banks. The Fed currently charges banks 5.5% in interest on these loans – one of its five policy rates – and demands collateral at market value, which is expensive money for banks. In addition, there’s a stigma attached to borrowing at the Discount Window. So banks don’t use this facility unless they need to, though the Fed has been exhorting them to make more regular use of it.
- Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP): -$1.6 billion in June, to $106 billion. The BTFP had a fatal flaw when it was cobbled together over a panicky weekend in March 2023 after SVB had failed: Its rate was based on a market rate. When Rate-Cut Mania kicked off in November 2023, market rates plunged even as the Fed held its policy rates steady, including the 5.4% it pays banks on reserves. Some banks then used the BTFP for arbitrage profits, borrowing at the BTFP at a lower market rate and then leaving the cash in their reserve account at the Fed to earn 5.4%. This arbitrage caused the BTFP balances to spike to $168 billion. The Fed shut down the arbitrage in January by changing the rate. It also let the BTFP expire on March 11, 2024. Loans that were taken out before that date can still be carried for a year from when they were taken out. By March 11, 2025, the BTFP will be zero.So over the next 8 months, the BTFP will remove another $106 billion from the balance sheet, on top of regular QT.
The housing paradox standing in the way of a Fed rate cut --Housing costs appear to be the final hurdle between the Federal Reserve and its goal of bringing inflation back down to its 2% target, and the issues there are likely to get worse before they get better. Because of how shelter costs are tracked by the nation's leading price indexes, housing expenses are likely to drive up measured inflation over the coming year, according to a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, despite data showing that rent prices have largely stabilized.The Boston Fed projects the core readings — those without volatile food and energy categories — of the consumer price index, or CPI, and the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, will rise by 0.74% and 0.29%, respectively, during the next 12 months because of greater housing costs. Meanwhile, market rents, as tracked by the analytics firm CoreLogic, were up just 3% year-over-year in April, well below the COVID-19 era-high of more than 13% and on par with their pre-pandemic average. Fed officials have acknowledged that the data lags related to housing costs have taken longer to play out than they had previously anticipated, noting it could be years before market trends and inflation readings sync up. But others say the issue could be a more fundamental one, related to how housing costs are measured in the U.S. — which differs in significant ways from other major world economies. Both CPI and PCE measure the cost of housing — also referred to as shelter — through changes in rental prices. But, because more than 65% of homes in America are owner-occupied, these indexes attempt to incorporate owned homes through what is known as owners' equivalent rent or imputed rent, which are estimates of what a homeowner would pay for their homes if they were renting. For most homeowners, their housing costs — particularly their monthly mortgage payments — have not changed significantly in recent years. Most are locked in at or near historically low rates. Yet estimated rental growth from homeowners makes up a bigger share of housing price indexes than actual rents, and those owners' equivalent rents have risen more quickly during the past two years. Imputed rent accounted for roughly 76% of the overall housing category within the PCE index, which is tracked by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Actual rents paid by tenants of non-farm housing makes up about 22%. From March 2022 through December 2023, owners' equivalent rents rose roughly 15% while tenant rents rose 13.9%. Overall housing costs were up 14.7% during that period. Other countries approach housing cost measurements differently. The European Central Bank does not include owner-occupied housing costs in its inflation tracker, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices. The CPI readings used by the Bank of England and the Bank of Canada both include ownership costs such as mortgage interest, insurance and renovations, rather than asking homeowners to estimate a rental value for their properties. Louise Sheiner, an economic studies fellow at the Brookings Institution, said trying to measure housing costs in a uniform way is difficult, which is why different jurisdictions approach it differently. CPI and PCE include owners' equivalent rent to account for the consumptive costs homeowners face, Sheiner explained, though she noted that in the current environment, in which home values are continuing to rise, the measure does not accurately reflect the impact of inflation on those homeowners. "It is conceptually fine how they do it, but it also might put a little bit less weight on inflation by homeowners who are perfectly indexed," she said. "They own the home so both their income goes up and, at the same time, their implicit rent goes up too, so they're not worse off at all."
Fed emphasizes independence, transparency in monetary policy report --The Federal Reserve used its semiannual monetary policy report to tout its independence and its record on transparency.The report, released Friday morning, noted that the central bank's ability to conduct monetary policy unilaterally enjoys "broad support," even when such actions come with difficult tradeoffs."It is widely understood that the monetary policy actions that deliver maximum employment and price stability in the longer run may involve restraining measures that entail short-run economic costs, while actions that raise output and employment to unsustainable levels have no long-run real benefits and may lead to elevated inflation rates," the report noted. "These considerations highlight the value of monetary policy being carried out by an independent agency whose decisions are based on the congressionally assigned dual mandate."The Fed also detailed, at length, its efforts to craft its policies in a transparent way and explain them to the public. It notes the initiatives that have expanded the Fed's accountability during the past 30 years, including issuing a joint policy statement and holding a press conference after each Federal Open Market Committee meeting, as well as the agency's various reports and speeches from its officials. "The shift to greater transparency has reflected not only the fact that transparency supports the Federal Reserve's accountability, but also widespread acceptance that transparency can contribute to the effectiveness of monetary policy," the report notes.The report also summarizes the Fed's policy actions from the past few months, including its decisions to hold its benchmark interest rate steady and slow the pace of its balance sheet reduction. Echoing statements from the FOMC and individual Fed officials, the report noted that inflation has slowed considerably and economic conditions should allow for policy rates to be eased in the near future — as soon as the committee feels the slowdown is sustainable.Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to appear in front of the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday to discuss the findings of the report and answer questions from committee members. This is standard practice for the Fed's biannual monetary reviews. The Fed has released monetary policy reports at least twice a year since 1997, typically issuing one during the first quarter — in February or March — and one around the middle of the year — in June or July. The overviews typically cover a wide range of developments, both at the Fed itself and in the broader economy, to explain the actions made to date and give a sense of where policy might be heading. Transparency and independence are not often highlighted in its monetary policy reports. The last time they were was in February 2019, as the Fed prepared to launch its Fed Listens event series in conjunction with its first-ever monetary policy strategic review. Such reviews are supposed to take place every five years, meaning the central bank will soon be due for one. During a recent press conference, Powell said the process will begin later this year or early next, but declined to disclose any specifics about the scope of the review.The report also noted that the financial system appears to be on sound footing, but noted several areas of potential weakness for banks. In particular, the report flagged "sizable" paper losses on fixed-rate assets and heavy reliance by many banks on uninsured deposits as top concerns. It also noted that a combination of higher funding costs and greater expected losses on commercial real estate and consumer loans would likely put downward pressure on bank profits. The report also noted that while loan growth has grown during the past five months, it remains tepid, noting that corporations have favored bond issuance over bank borrowing for their debt needs. It added that regional bank stock prices have continued to decline in recent months while large bank valuations have risen, reflecting "lingering concerns" about regional banks in the wake of last year's run of failures.Still, the Fed found that most banks have capital levels "well above" their statutory minimums and liquidity is "ample," as banks have shied away from short-term wholesale funding.
Powell: Fed independence has 'very broad support' from both parties --Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is not worried about a second presidential term for Donald Trump. During a panel discussion hosted by the European Central Bank in Portugal on Tuesday, Powell was asked point-blank how concerned he was that Trump — who was critical of the Fed's monetary policies during his time in the Oval Office and openly discussed the possibility of dismissing Powell as chair — might threaten the central bank's independence."I am not focused on that at all, and that's not just a talking point," Powell told CNBC anchor Sara Eisen, who moderated the discussion. "I really think we just keep doing our jobs. The U.S. economy, we have 4% unemployment, it's growing at 2%, inflation is at 2.6%, let's keep that going, let's do our jobs. History will judge."Powell added that, regardless of who is in the White House, the Fed's independence is supported and bolstered by bipartisan support in Congress."Support for the Fed's independence is very high where it really matters — on Capitol Hill, in both political parties, among the leaders and most of the following," he said. "So, I worry about getting the job right, that's what I worry about."The discussion comes less than a week after the first debate between Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, and President Joe Biden, the likely Democratic candidate. A poor performance by the incumbent has led political analysts — as well as Treasury market participants — to factor in a greater possibility that Trump returns to office next year. Powell declined to weigh in on various policy matters at play in the presidential election, including those related to trade, immigration and the environment, noting that they lie outside the Fed's remit. He did reiterate his ongoing concern about the rate of growth of the U.S.'s national debt."The United States is running a very large deficit at a time when we're at full employment. The level of debt we have is not unsustainable, the path we're on is unsustainable. That's completely not controversial," Powell said. "I would have thought this is something that should be a top-level concern, and you do hear it from a lot of elected officials, but it should be a real focus going forward. How do we get back to a sustainable path? Because, you can't run these kinds of deficits in good economic times for very long."Powell's counterpart, ECB President Christine Lagarde, similarly declined to weigh in on recent political developments in Europe — particularly the recent French legislative election which will result in a divided government for the continent's second-biggest economy. Largarde did, however, break from Powell in one meaningful way: Endorsing central bank involvement in addressing climate change. "I'm concerned, as a person more than as president of the ECB, about the backlash there is against the fight against climate change," she said. "Some would argue that it has nothing to do with central banking, but I would contend this is actually not the case. It does have a ramification, impact that we should be mindful about. But it's a risk that is there, that will come to haunt us if we don't do much about it."Powell, who noted that his biggest concern for the stability of the U.S. banking system is a cyber attack on a large financial institution or financial market utility, said the Fed does not want to drift from its explicit oversight mandates.
IMF says growing US debt must be “urgently” dealt with -- The International Monetary Fund has warned that the rapidly growing US public debt must be “urgently” addressed lest it cause major problems for the global economy and its financial system. The warning is the centre piece of the annual Article IV review of the US issued last week which estimated that the debt-to-GDP ratio would rise steadily and reach 140 percent by 2032. This would mean debt and deficits exceeding the previous highs they reached in the wake of World War 2 and there was a “pressing need to reverse the ongoing increase to public-debt GDP ratio.” “Such high deficits and debt create a growing risk to the US and global economy, potentially feeding into higher fiscal financing costs and a growing risk to the smooth rollover of maturing obligations,” the IMF said. “These chronic fiscal deficits represent a significant and persistent policy misalignment that needs to be urgently addressed.” The prescriptions advanced by the IMF amount to nothing less than what would be called a “structural adjustment program” like those imposed on less developed countries. These have led to the eruption of mass social and class struggles as took place in Sri Lanka in 2022 and have now exploded in Kenya. The IMF said that to put the debt-GDP on a “clear downward path, a frontloaded fiscal adjustment will be needed that shifts to a general government primary surplus of around 1 percent of GDP (an adjustment of around 4 percent of GDP relative to the current baseline.)” With the US GDP currently at $27.6 trillion, this means an “adjustment” of more than $1.1 trillion. Under conditions where military spending will continue to be increased as the US expands its global war front, this means years of an austerity program directed against social spending hitting the working class. This is spelled out is clear terms by the IMF. “There are various tax and spending options to achieve this adjustment over the medium-term. However, policies will need to go beyond finding efficiencies in discretionary non-defence spending. Policymakers will need to carefully consider raising indirect taxes, progressively increasing income taxes (including for those earning less than $400,000 per year), eliminating a range of tax expenditures, and reforming entitlement programs. Putting these measures in place will necessitate taking difficult political decisions over the course of multiple years.” The sting here is in the tail. Under conditions where any tax increases on the wealthy and corporations will be only marginal at most or successfully evaded as has been the case in the past, the chief burden of the shift in resources would be borne by an attack on social services, to which the IMF points with the euphemistic phrase “reforming entitlement programs.” The IMF report card on the US economy claimed that it has turned in a “remarkable performance over the past few years” but then detailed major problems building up not far below the surface. Besides the explosion of public debt, it pointed to major issues in the financial system. It warned that there was “insufficient progress in addressing the vulnerabilities” highlighted by the 2023 bank failures, when three major banks failed as a result of the interest rate hikes initiated by the US Federal Reserve in March 2022. Fed policy could also lead to financial turbulence. It is seeking to reduce its holdings of debt built up because of the quantitative easing program introduced after the crisis of 2008 and expanded further in response to the crisis in the market for US government debt in March 2020 at the start of the pandemic. This process, known as quantitative tightening, is now being eased somewhat because of the possibility of liquidity problems in the $26 trillion Treasury market and the short-term, sometimes overnight, repurchase (repo) market where interest rates jumped from their normal level of a fraction of a percentage point to as much as 10 percent in September 2019. “The decision on when to stop the shrinking of the balance sheet will need to be handled carefully so as to prevent inducing volatility on short term funding markets,” the IMF said.
Senate Appropriations Committee to mark up first 2025 funding bills - The powerful Senate Appropriations Committee is plowing ahead with plans to mark up its first batch of fiscal 2025 funding bills next week, even as Republicans and Democrats struggle to strike an overall deal on how to fund the government for much of next year. The committee is set to mark up full-year funding plans for the departments of Agriculture and Veterans Affairs, as well as the Food and Drug Administration, rural development, military construction and the legislative branch. The legislation covers three of the dozen annual spending bills negotiators are looking to move out of committee over the summer as both chambers work to ramp up their fiscal 2025 funding work ahead of a shutdown deadline in late September. The committee will also consider proposed allocations for each of the funding bills during the full committee markup session next Thursday. The vote comes as Republican and Democratic lawmakers have yet to strike an overall top-line funding deal for fiscal 2025. However, the funding blueprints set to come out of the committee in the weeks ahead are expected to be much more bipartisan in nature than the fiscal 2025 spending plans that have moved across the House floor so far. Last week, the House passed three bills laying out fiscal 2025 funding for the departments of Homeland Security, Defense and State. However, the bills passed in mostly party-line votes as many Democrats have come out in sharp opposition to the House GOP’s funding proposals, which they have bashed as being packed with partisan riders they’ve panned as “poison pills.” The bills are also written at funding levels that Democrats say undercut a bipartisan deal struck between the White House and Republican leadership last year to raise the debt limit and set new spending limits. On the Senate side, Appropriations Committee Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) has emphasized the need for parity in increases to both defense and nondefense programs for fiscal 2025. “The Appropriations Committee has now held nearly 40 hearings on the resources that we will need in fiscal year ’25. We’ve discussed exactly what our nation needs to stay strong, safe and competitive,” she said last month. “And there’s a big obvious takeaway from those hearings, the [Fiscal Responsibility Act] caps for FY ’24 are already causing serious pain and serious challenges, and the caps for FY ’25 are grossly inadequate,” she said.
US Has Sent Israel 14,000 2,000-Pound Bombs Since October 7 - The US has given Israel a massive number of heavy munitions since October 7, including 14,000 of the highly destructive MK-84 2,000-pound bombs that have been repeatedly dropped on civilians in Gaza, Reuters reported on Saturday.Two US officials told Reuters that the US has also sent 6,500 500-pound bombs, 3,000 Hellfire missiles, 1,000 bunker-buster bombs, 2,600 small-diameter bombs, and other munitions.The large number of munitions demonstrates the fact that the Biden administration’s pause on a shipment of powerful bombs did not have a real impact on US military support for Israel. Axios reported on June 27 that the US has approved the transfer of 1,700 500-pound bombs that were part of the paused shipment. An administration official told reporters last week that the US has provided Israel with $6.5 billion worth of weapons since October 7 to support the slaughter and starvation of Palestinians in Gaza. The administration has vowed Israel will receive all of the $17 billion in additional military aid that was included in the $95 billion bill President Biden signed into law in April.Despite the massive support, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently accused the US of withholding military aid, a claim the White House called “inaccurate.” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited Washington last week, and US officials worked to assure him they were doing everything they could to get Israel all the weapons it wants.
Former Israeli PM Admits Israel's War Crimes Can't Happen Without US Support - Caitlin Johnstone - Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert has been launching a forceful attack on Benjamin Netanyahu in both US and Israeli media for sabotaging peace in Gaza and pushing Israel to the brink with Hezbollah in Lebanon, during which he inadvertently made an interesting acknowledgement which flies in the face of the Biden administration’s feigned powerlessness to rein in Israel’s insanity.“I accuse the prime minister of Israel of a deliberate attempt to destroy the political-security-military alliance between Israel and the United States,” Olmert writes in an op-ed for Haaretz titled “I Accuse Netanyahu of Betrayal”.“For many years, Israel’s political stability in the international arena rested on the absolute support of the United States,” writes Olmert, adding, “The entire Israel Air Force relies completely on American aircraft: fighter planes, transport planes, refueler planes and helicopters. All of Israel’s air power is based on the American commitment to defend Israel. We have no other reliable source for essential supplies of equipment, munitions and advanced weapons that Israel cannot manufacture on its own.”Olmert’s comments echo those made in November of last year by retired Israeli Major General Yitzhak Brick, who said of the Israeli assault on Gaza, “All of our missiles, the ammunition, the precision-guided bombs, all the airplanes and bombs, it’s all from the U.S. The minute they turn off the tap, you can’t keep fighting. You have no capability. … Everyone understands that we can’t fight this war without the United States. Period.”Contrast these frank admissions by longtime Israeli government insiders with the way the Biden administration has been pretending since the early days of this onslaught that there is nothing it can do to force Israel to be less monstrous and murderous in Gaza, constantly posturing as a passive witness to genocidal atrocity after genocidal atrocity while the western press churn outnonstop anonymously-sourced articles about how secretly upset the president is with the Netanyahu regime.It’s just a simple fact that Israel’s complete dependence on US support means the Biden administration has all the leverage it needs to force an end to Israel’s aggressions at any time, but instead you’ll get White House officials like John Kirby spouting ridiculous nonsense about how Israel is a completely independent nation to whom the US is incapable of dictating any terms whatsoever.
US Sends Amphibious Assault Ship To Show Support for Israel Amid Lebanon Tensions - The US has deployed an amphibious assault ship to the Middle East to demonstrate support for Israel amid soaring tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border.The Pentagon announced that the USS Wasp arrived in the eastern Mediterranean Sea last week. The deployment comes amid fears of a full-blown Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon as Israeli forces and Hezbollah continue to trade fire across the border.A US official told The Associated Press that the deployment was “about deterrence,” but the US show of force could embolden Israel. The US insists it’s working to prevent a war in Lebanon, but Middle East Eyerecently reported that Washington conveyed to Lebanon it would ultimately support Israel if it went ahead with an invasion.The Wasp is carrying a US Marine Corps Expeditionary Unit and is sailing along with the USS Oak Hill, a dock landing ship. US officials told NBC Newslast week that one purpose of the Wasp’s deployment is to stand by to evacuate Americans in the event that a full-scale war breaks out along the Israel-Lebanon border. Another US official told AP that the deployment of the Wasp was comparable to the US sending warships to the region in the wake of the October 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel and the start of the Israeli onslaught in Gaza.
"Gaza Is Complicated!" No It Isn't. Grow Up. Caitlin Johnstone - It’s false to say that conflicts in the middle east are hard to understand. They’re not. What can be hard is opening your mind to the possibility that everything you’ve been told about the world is a lie, and that everyone you know and respect has been brainwashed by propaganda. Once you’ve done that, understanding conflicts in the middle east becomes easy — because the entire framework we’re indoctrinated with for understanding them is a lie.So much abusive bullshit hides behind the false modesty of “This issue is too complicated for me to understand.” You see it with Gaza, where westerners act like an empire-backed military force dropping bombs on a giant concentration camp and systematically using rape as a weapon of torture and deliberately starving civilians is just way too compwicated for a dumb widdle baby wike me, goo goo ga ga. People act like they’re being humble about their own intellect and understanding, but really they’re just lying and psychologically compartmentalizing away from self-evident reality. It’s not humility, it’s just another kind of dishonesty.You see this fraudulent act all the time with the average westerner’s general incuriosity about the behavior of their government and its allies throughout the world. “Oh I’m too dumb to know anything about foreign policy, I leave that to the experts.” No actually you’re just compartmentalizing away from the cognitive dissonance that would otherwise lead to the destruction of your mainstream worldview once you really looked at the publicly available information about what your government and its allies are doing to people in other countries..There absolutely is a benefit to having real humility about the limits of your own understanding, and to knowing that from a certain point of view everything about this strange reality we were birthed into is mysterious and ungraspable. But if you use this fact to hide from your own responsibility toward understanding your world, your society and your interpersonal relationships, it’s just cowardice and dishonesty. If you use this truth to hide from reality, it becomes a lie.If you accept that we all have a responsibility to act in an ethical way, then you must also accept that we have a responsibility to form a mature understanding of our world and our surroundings, because all of our actions necessarily flow from our understanding. This won’t always be convenient or comfortable, just conducting one’s behavior in an ethical way isn’t always convenient or comfortable, but that’s what being a responsible adult is. You can’t discern responsible action without having a responsible relationship with your understanding of the world.Gaza isn’t complicated. Those who says it is are just running from their own intellectual adulthood. Stop shirking your responsibility, learn the facts, take a stand, and grow up.
Biden speaks to Netanyahu about ceasefire talks -- President Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu Thursday morning about progress on a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.“Earlier I spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss ongoing efforts to finalize a deal that would result in a ceasefire together with the release of hostages – a deal that I have outlined and is endorsed by the UN Security Council, the G7, and countries around the world,” Bidenwrote on X.Biden announced at the end of May a three-part proposal to end the fighting and return Israeli hostages held by Hamas.Hamas abducted around 250 hostages and killed about 1,200 people when the group attacked Israel on Oct. 7.More than 35,000 Palestinians, including women and children, have died in the aftermath as Israel hammers the territory in an effort to wipe out Hamas and rescue the hostages, prompting international outrage and sparking protests across U.S. campuses.The Biden administration has stood by its ally, sending billions of dollars in military assistance to Israel. Some Democrats have pushed Biden to take a harder line with Netanyahu over its conduct in the war, but members overwhelmingly support the country in the war.The United Nations Security Council approved a U.S.-sponsored resolution last month that called for an immediate, temporary ceasefire. The text of the resolution noted Israel had “accepted” the framework laid out by Biden in May and called on Hamas to accept the deal as well.The call comes less than three weeks before Netanyahu is slated to address Congress on July 24.
US Military Again Removes Pier From Gaza Coast Due to Weather - The US military has again removed the pier it built off the coast of Gazadue to seas it cannot handle, and the floating structure will be towed to the Israeli port of Ashdod, the Pentagon announced on Friday. Since its construction, the pier has barely brought any aid into Gaza, as it’s frequently been suspended due to weather. The pier can only be safely operated in a maximum of 3-foot waves and winds less than approximately 15 miles per hour. The US is considering not re-installing the pier since the aid shipments that it has delivered to Gaza have not been distributed to starving Palestinians. Aid has piled up at a nearby storage yard as the UN’s World Food Program suspended operations on June 9 after the Israeli attack on Nuiserat that killed over 270 Palestinians and freed four Israeli hostages. On Saturday, the WFP announced that it started delivering some of the aid, but it’s unclear if the security situation will allow continued distribution. WFP spokeswoman Abeer Etefa told The Associated Press that clearing the storage yard is a one-time operation and that further operations at the pier will be assessed based on the security situation. The AP report said that the UN is investigating whether or not the US-built pier was used in the Nuiserat massacre. Video that surfaced online showed an Israeli military helicopter operating near the pier during the operation. Aid groups have denounced the US construction of the pier as a public relations stunt since the US could have instead pressured Israel to open more land border crossings, which is by far the most efficient way to get aid into Gaza.
US struggles to deter Houthi threat as crisis spirals -After half a year of conflict, the U.S. has failed to deter the Houthi rebels from attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea as the Yemeni fighters continue to sink commercial boats and disrupt global trade, posing an increasingly difficult challenge for the far larger American military. Repeated U.S. bombardments on Houthi positions have done little to stop the Iran-backed group that has managed to employ advanced weapons like surface-water drones and anti-ship ballistic missiles to fluster U.S. troops. And they have kept up the pace of attacks with more than 190 drone and missile launches since the effort began in late October. While the U.S. has thwarted most Houthi attempts to damage merchant ships, the Yemeni fighters have now sunk or heavily damaged at least four commercial vessels, along with hijacking one. They have also killed four commercial sailors. The latest successful attack came June 23, when the Houthis struck the Liberian-flagged and Greek-owned merchant ship the Trans World Navigator. The last vessel to sink, another Greek-owned ship, the Tutor, was on June 12. Bruce Bennett, an adjunct senior international defense researcher at RAND Corporation, said the Houthis are being fed by religious determination and a “political motivation” that embraces sacrifice, while their insurgent warfare, with weapons scattered across Yemen, pose a big challenge. “The U.S. military is designed for regular warfare. It’s designed to take out an adversary who’s out there and targetable,” he said. “It’s really a very hard kind of military threat to get under control.” The conflict’s impact on global trade is only growing as it drags on. Earlier this month, the shipping industry sent out a scathing condemnation of the Houthi attacks, calling it “an unacceptable situation” and pushing for stronger international action to ensure the attacks “stop now.” While economic costs have largely been absorbed by the shipping industry and direct sellers for now, that could change. Adnan Mazarei, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who focuses on the economies of the Middle East and Central Asia, said traffic is down by 50 percent in the Red Sea corridor. The impact is regional, he added, mainly hitting Egypt, which collects shipping revenues through the Suez Canal, along with reducing port traffic for countries like Israel. But an extended conflict could begin to impact other parts of the world, especially Europe, as increased shipping costs trickle down to the average consumer. That could significantly worsen if a possible approaching war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon is realized, Mazarei added. “Unless there is a war in Lebanon, we are in a somewhat stable situation,“ he said. “Not a good situation, but I think things are somewhat stabilized.” The Houthis are launching drones and missiles daily from sites in Yemen, using fishing boats for radar-tracking and relying on advanced weapons shipments and other targeting assistance from Iran. The scope of their efforts has also expanded outside of the maritime corridor, with the Houthis in the past few months kidnapping dozens of United Nations relief works, Human Rights Watchsaid in a new report. The U.S. Navy has been constantly on the alert since full engagement began in January to quickly shoot down drones and launch counterattacks on the rebel group’s assets. But the Houthis need to slip just one drone or missile through defenses to do damage, while the U.S. cannot miss once or risk a hit, said Cmdr. Eric Blomberg with the USS Laboon, a destroyer ship that has taken on the Houthis, who told The Associated Press that people may be unaware of “how deadly serious it is what we’re doing and how under threat the ships continue to be.” The USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier strike group, made up of four ships and some 6,000 sailors, this month left the Middle East. The U.S. is sending reinforcements to the region for the Eisenhower group, which has been deployed since October to deter regional escalation and counter the Houthis. Washington believes it can damage the rebels enough to stop the effectiveness of their campaign, though officials are now stressing the challenge of accomplishing that goal. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Wednesday that the Houthis “miss a whole hell of a lot more than they hit” because of the Navy’s vigilance. Kirby explained the U.S. was focused on “taking away their capability to conduct the attacks” but also acknowledged the Houthis remain determined and well-supplied, despite the military working to intercept Iranian skiffs headed to Yemen.
UN Says Israel Evacuation Order 'Wiped Out' Bid to Improve Gaza Aid (Reuters) - An Israeli military evacuation order covering a third of the Gaza Strip has "wiped out" the United Nations' attempts to improve humanitarian aid deliveries via the Kerem Shalom crossing, a senior U.N. aid official said on Wednesday. Israel has been critical of U.N.-led aid operations in the enclave of 2.3 million people, where the U.N. says distribution is not only hampered by the nearly nine-month long war between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas, but also lawlessness.Israel's military announced this month a daily daytime pause in attacks to facilitate the collection of aid from Kerem Shalom, but the U.N. has said the lawlessness means it is still too dangerous and it is Israel's responsibility to restore public order and safety in Gaza.Andrea De Domenico, head of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, said that in the past few weeks there had been a lot of discussions with Israel on how to improve the situation."We have been engineering a lot of solutions and trying and testing, improving and failing - at times - and now with this evacuation order all this has been, again, wiped out," he told reporters on Wednesday.De Domenico said alternative plans were now blocked by the evacuation order, but he hoped a protection agreement could be reached with the Israeli military for some areas.The United Nations has also long appealed for more effective coordination with the Israeli military for aid operations and approval for the U.N. and humanitarians to use essential security and communications equipment."Would it be Starlink? Would it be another technology? I don't really care as long as we have what we need to communicate safely with our teams for safety and for operations," said De Domenico, referring to a the SpaceX satellite internet service.
US Official Says There Are No Plans To Withdraw from Syria - A State Department official has told Rudaw that the US has no plans to withdraw its troops from Syria.The US has about 900 troops in eastern Syria and backs the Kurdish-led SDF, allowing Washington to control and occupy about one-third of the country’s territory.The US claims the occupation is about fighting ISIS remnants, but the continued US presence is more about keeping Damascus and its ally Iran out of the area and controlling oil resources. The occupation is also part of the economic campaign against government-controlled Syria, which includes crippling sanctions that are specifically designed to prevent the country’s reconstruction.Ethan A. Goldrich, assistant deputy secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, said the US wouldn’t leave Syria until its “mission” was completed, referring to the anti-ISIS operations.“We are not planning to withdraw from Syria. We are planning to continue and complete our mission to prevent a resurgence of ISIS and to counter ISIS and to work with our partners,” Goldrich told Rudaw on Wednesday.Goldrich also said the US occupation was about “holding the regime accountable,” referring to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He also reiterated US opposition to regional countries normalizing with Damascus, as Arab nations have accepted that Assad isn’t going anywhere and are re-establishing relations with the Syrian leader.
US Military Raises Alert Level at Europe Bases Amid Russia Tensions - The US military has raised its alert level at bases in Europe amid soaring tensions with Russia that are the result of the US increasing its support for Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory.US and Western officials told The New York Times that the alert levels were raised in response to “vague threats” from Russian officials. Russia warned last week that it would retaliate against the US in response to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea using a cluster bomb variant of US-provided ATACM missiles that killed five civilians, including two children, on the beach near Sevastopol.Russian President Vladimir Putin warned in May that there would be “major consequences” for any NATO country that allows Ukraine to use its weapons to strike targets inside the Russian mainland. Putin made the warning before President Biden gave Ukraine the green light to use US-provided missiles on targets across the border.US military bases are currently at the alert level “Charlie,” which is the second-highest level. According to the Times, it’s the highest level that could be sustained over a long period of time.US officials said there was no specific intelligence about a potential Russian attack on US bases in Europe. They also accused Russian intelligence of being behind sabotage attacks in Europe, including a fire at an IKEA furniture store, but offered no evidence to back up the claim.US bases in Europe support the proxy war in Ukraine by training Ukrainian troops, providing intelligence, and serving as hubs for weapons shipments. The US and NATO’s increasing support for Ukrainian strikes in Russia and other escalations risk provoking a Russian response since Moscow has made clear it views the Western nations as direct participants in the war.After the Ukrainian strike on the beach in Crimea, the Russian Defense Ministry said, “The responsibility for the deliberate missile strike against civilians in Sevastopol lies primarily in Washington, which supplied these weapons to Ukraine.”
Lloyd Austin announces $2.3B aid package for Ukraine -- Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a $2.3 billion security assistance package for Ukraine ahead of a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Tuesday.The package will include critical air defense interceptors and other weapons. A spokesperson for the Pentagon said more details on the package would be made available soon.Austin met with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov at the Pentagon on Tuesday and underscored the U.S. commitment to defending the country against a Russian invasion.“Ukraine is in a tough fight,” Austin said in remarks ahead of the meeting, adding “make no mistake, Ukraine is not alone.”The Pentagon chief also noted that the U.S. has signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement with Ukraine, providing Kyiv with defense cooperation guarantees over a decade. He added that he would discuss with Umerov additional ways to strengthen the partnership.The U.S. has announced billions of dollars of assistance to Ukraine since the last congressional package of some $60 billion was approved in April. That legislation came after months of delays, giving Russia the advantage on the battlefield before more U.S. aid began arriving on the battlefield. Ukrainian troops are fighting across the 600-mile front against Russian forces, including in the northeastern Kharkiv region, where Moscow opened a new front in May.
Austin Says US Will Provide Ukraine With New $2.3 Billion Weapons Package - News Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin hosted his Ukrainian counterpart in Washington on Tuesday and said the US would soon announce a $2.3 billion weapons package for Ukraine. “I am proud that the United States will soon announce more than $2.3 billion in new security assistance for Ukraine,” Austin said alongside Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.Austin said the package would include air defense inceptors, anti-tank weapons, and other munitions. It will be provided through Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the US to ship weapons directly from Pentagon stockpiles.The Pentagon chief also vowed that the US would continue supporting Ukraine and fueling the proxy war. “Ukraine is not alone, and the United States will never waver in our support. Alongside some 50 allies and partners, we’ll continue to provide the critical capabilities that Ukraine needs to push back Russian aggression today and to deter Russian aggression tomorrow,” he said.Austin’s meeting with Umerov comes about a week before the US will host a NATO summit in Washington from July 8 to July 11. Umerov said he hoped Ukraine would be invited to join NATO soon.“We look forward to discussing with you how we could continue our partnership and be, in the future, a member of NATO. Hopefully soon, Ukraine will receive its invitation,” Umerov said.There’s no indication that NATO will extend a formal invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance anytime soon. A bilateral security deal President Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed in June repeated a vague promise made at NATO’s Vilinius summit last year that Ukraine would get an invite to join “when Allies agree and conditions are met.”
Ukraine Will Be Told It's Too Corrupt To Join NATO at Next Week's Summit - Ukraine will be told that it is too corrupt to join NATO at the alliance’s summit in Washington next week, The Telegraph reported on Tuesday.The report cited a US State Department official who said Ukraine needed to take “additional steps” before talks on its NATO membership could progress. “We have to step back and applaud everything that Ukraine has done in the name of reforms over the last two-plus years,” the official said.“As they continue to make those reforms, we want to commend them, we want to talk about additional steps that need to be taken, particularly in the area of anti-corruption. It is a priority for many of us around the table,” the official added.President Biden has frequently cited corruption as a reason for not admitting Ukraine into NATO, but that has not stopped him from spending over $100 billion on military and economic aid for the Ukrainian government with virtually no oversight. The position is expected to be outlined in a NATO communique issued during the summit. During last year’s NATO summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was looking for a clear roadmap to membership, but the alliance’s communique only offered a vague statement that it would invite Ukraine to join “when Allies agree and conditions are met.” NATO is poised to make some gestures to show support for Ukraine, including the stationing of a senior civilian official in Kyiv, according toThe Wall Street Journal. The idea is to show support for future Ukrainian NATO membership without actually offering an invitation.The Journal also reported that the alliance will announce the establishment of a new command in Wiesbaden, Germany, to oversee military aid and training for the Ukrainian military. The idea is to have the alliance take over duties currently overseen by the US so they could continue in the event that a future US president wants to reduce US involvement in the proxy war. The report said the steps to “Trump proof” the Ukraine proxy war have taken on a new urgency after President Biden’s poor performance in the first presidential debate. Former President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism about the war and said he would work out a deal to end it but hasn’t articulated a plan. He also backed House Speaker Mike Johnson as he moved forward an additional $61 billion in spending on the proxy war.
Russia Says It Will Respond to Finland Giving US Access to Bases - On Wednesday, Russia said it would respond to Finland’s move to allow the US access to military bases inside the Nordic nation, which joined NATO last year and shares an over 800-mile border with Russia.Under a new Defense Cooperation Agreement that was ratified by Finland’s parliament on Monday, the US can access 15 bases in Finland, including a border guard base only 20 miles from the Russian border.“I can only confirm that Russia will not leave unanswered the NATO military buildup on our border, which threatens the security of the Russian Federation,” said Andrei Nastasin, a deputy spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry.“We will also take the necessary measures, including of a military-technical nature, to counter aggressive decisions by Finland, as well as its NATO allies,” Nastasin added.After Finland first applied to join NATO in 2022, Russia vowed to increase its military presence in western Russia and near the Finnish border in response to any buildup of NATO military infrastructure in the Nordic nation. Sweden also officially joined NATO this year, making all Nordic nations members of the US-led military alliance. The US also signed a DCA with Stockholm that gives it access to 17 bases inside Sweden.
District Court Orders Biden Administration to Cancel LNG Permit Pause, but Quick Action Not Expected --A federal court has ruled the Department of Energy (DOE) should resume considerations for new worldwide LNG export permits while it reviews the impact of natural gas trade on the U.S. economy and climate. Chart showing commercially advanced LNG projects impacted by DOE review. On Monday, U.S. District Court Judge James Cain of the Western District of Louisiana issued a preliminary order and sided with 16 Republican attorneys general (AG) who filed a lawsuit after the White House ordered DOE to halt non-free trade agreement (FTA) permits. In his decision, Cain referred to the pause as an “export ban” using the same phrasing as Republican and industry opponents of the agency’s review (No. 2:24-CV-00406). While the Natural Gas Act (NGA) allows DOE to review policies for granting permits, the decision to halt considerations altogether in January was an “unlawful action” that harmed developers and states where projects were planned, Cain wrote.
Federal court lifts Biden's pause on natural gas export approvals - A federal court has halted the Biden administration’s pause on new approvals for natural gas exports. Judge James Cain, a Trump appointee in Louisiana, approved a request from Republican-led states to lift the pause while the litigation against it plays out. “The Court will grant Plaintiffs’ Motion for Preliminary Injunction, and order that the LNG Export Ban be stayed in its entirety, effective immediately,” Cain wrote. The Biden administration announced in January that it would pause approvals of new permissions to ship natural gas abroad to countries that don’t have free trade with the U.S. The pause did not impact existing exports. The Biden administration said the pause was being done in order to update the criteria on which it decides whether to OK new gas export terminals — including whether to revamp its considerations of environmental issues in that process. In his ruling, Cain said the states that challenged the administration’s move are likely to succeed in their case and that they will suffer irreparable harm if the pause continues while the case plays out. “The Court is convinced that the Export Ban will and is irreparably harming the Plaintiff States. Plaintiff States have submitted evidence of harm specifically to Louisiana, Texas, and West Virginia in the loss of revenues, market share, and deprivation of a procedural right,” he wrote. Those who sued over the pause cheered the ruling. “This is a big win for the country’s energy industry and the millions of jobs it supports against the attacks from the Biden administration to further its radical climate change agenda at the expense of our economy,” West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who is running for governor, said in a written statement. “The U.S. Department of Energy disagrees with today’s ruling. The Department continues to review the court’s order and evaluate next steps,” a DOE spokesperson told The Hill. The Biden administration’s move to halt the approvals of new LNG export facilities was supported by climate-focused organizations. Craig Segall, vice president of Evergreen Action, called Monday’s ruling “deeply misguided,” but said it would not stop the Biden administration from updating its criteria for new exports. “Pause or no pause, the science is clear: No sound analysis that accounts for the climate and environmental harm inflicted by LNG exports could possibly determine that these deadly facilities are in the public interest,” Segall said in a statement. The move also prevented the administration from having to make tough choices that could anger its base ahead of the November election.
Judge overturns Biden’s LNG export pause - A federal judge reversed the Department of Energy’s freeze on new liquefied natural gas export approvals Monday, handing a win to industry and red states that had challenged the Biden administration plan.Judge James Cain of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana said in an order late Monday that DOE’s export pause would be “stayed in its entirety, effective immediately.”In January, the administration halted reviews of new LNG export applications to non-free-trade-agreement countries, saying it needed to review how to account for climate risks of projects before approving exports. The pause was praised by environmentalists who had been critical of President Biden’s record on fossil fuels. Monday’s court ruling does not force DOE to now approve LNG applications, but it does require the department to restart the process of considering them.DOE’s decision went against the language of the Natural Gas Act and was subverting “Congress’s determination that LNG exports are presumptively in the public interest,” said Cain, a Trump pick.The ruling came in response to a lawsuit filed by coalition of 16 Republican-led states, which claimed the administration had overstepped its authority when it launched the freeze.The department had said the pause would remain in place temporarily as it reviewed how it would account for climate risks when determining whether new gas exports were in the public interest. The freeze did not affect exports to non-free-trade agreements that had already been approved at the time.According to Cain, the Natural Gas Act instructs DOE to ensure “expeditious completion” of reviewing export applications.He acknowledged that DOE has previously used studies to update how it makes public interest determinations.But “the decision to wholesale halt the process of approving applications for non-FTA countries is a complete reversal of how the DOE processed these applications in the past,” he wrote.The pause affected exports for pending LNG projects, including Commonwealth LNG and Venture Global’s CP2 project in Louisiana, as well as the second phase of Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG project in Texas. In a statement, DOE said that it disagreed with Monday’s ruling, adding it “continues to review the court’s order and evaluate next steps.”DOE has noted that the United States remains the largest LNG exporter in the world, despite claims from opponents that the pause caused economic harm.The country has an operating gas export capacity of 14 billion cubic feet per day, with projects under construction that could add 12 billion more cubic feet per day in this decade, according to the department.DOE has also authorized another 22 billion cubic feet per day of exports from facilities that are not yet under construction and were not affected by the pause. Craig Segall, vice president of the climate advocacy group Evergreen Action, emphasized in a statement that the court’s decision would not determine what DOE could consider in deciding whether LNG export permits are in the public interest. “Pause or no pause, the science is clear: No sound analysis that accounts for the climate and environmental harm inflicted by LNG exports could possibly determine that these deadly facilities are in the public interest,” Segall said. Lauren Parker, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute, said “coupled with last week’s court rulings, rolling back the LNG pause shows that Trump judges are hellbent on torching environmental safeguards, the climate and our democracy.” West Virginia Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, however, lauded the court’s decision late Monday. West Virginia was one of the 16 states backing the lawsuit.
Gas export projects likely to remain in limbo despite court ruling - New gas export projects will likely remain in limbo for many months despite a judge halting the Biden administration’s pause on approving such projects on Monday. The administration still has discretion in its review of new projects, and experts don’t expect it to approve any ahead of the November election, in which President Biden looks to face a closely fought rematch with former President Trump.Approving new gas export facilities would likely alienate progressive voters who already have a tenuous relationship with Biden and have raised concerns about gas’s environmental impact.“I don’t think it’ll have much impact at all,” Ira Joseph, senior research associate at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said of the order lifting the administration’s pause. Joseph added that the Energy Department “has the ability to review the license for non-[free trade agreement] approval for as long or as short as they want.”The Biden administration said in January that it would temporarily stop authorizing gas export terminals to ship fuel to countries that don’t have free trade agreements with the U.S., otherwise known as non-FTA countries. Opponents of the move sued, and Judge James Cain, a Trump appointee, earlier this week blocked the administration’s pause “in its entirety, effective immediately” while the litigation against it plays out.However, the Energy Department still has the right to review the projects waiting in its queue for non-FTA approval. In response to the ruling, the department said that it “continues to review the court’s order and evaluate next steps.” Meanwhile, the White House said that it is “committed to informing our decisions with the best available economic and environmental analysis.” Updating such analysis is the reason that it gave for the pause to begin with. Having the pause in place also made it unlikely that the Biden administration would have to issue any politically difficult decisions in an election year.The move won praise from climate activists, who had pushed the administration not to approve new gas export projects. Climate advocates’ opposition to the gas expansion is among the reasons why analysts say the administration is unlikely to approve any new projects in the months ahead.“There’s several constituency reasons for why the Biden administration wouldn’t want to move … any faster. One is, of course, environmentalists who think that exporting more [U.S. gas] is going to lock in fossil fuels,” “Two is also the domestic audience considerations — the more [natural gas] you export, the higher natural gas prices go in the U.S., and in an election defined by inflation, that’s not a button you want to push either,” Flakoll added.
Biden's SAVE student loan relief plan to resume: Appeals court -- A federal appeals court ruled Sunday that a key part of President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan can resume after an injunction was placed on the initiative. The previous injunction on the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) repayment plan said that the administration could not lower monthly payments or forgive some student debt. The 10th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals lifted the injunction on the part that would lower monthly payments, allowing them to drop from 10 percent of discretionary income to 5 percent this month. The administration did place some borrowers in forbearance while the legal issues are worked out. “While we are frustrated by the continued legal challenges brought to limit borrower relief, we are pleased to see the Department of Education take quick and decisive action by placing 3 million borrowers in an administrative forbearance,” said Natalia Abrams, president of Student Debt Crisis Center. Around 8 million Americans signed up for the SAVE plan after it was implemented in the fall as part of President Biden’s wider efforts to bring relief to student loan borrowers. Back in October, under the plan, the government raised the amount of income protected from 150 percent above the federal poverty guidelines to 225 percent. It also makes it so borrowers who pay the principal balance on their loans monthly will not be penalized for the growth of unpaid interest.
Fauci rejects Bannon calling threats a metaphor: ‘That’s nonsense’ - Former White House chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci hit back at Steve Bannon on Sunday for saying that his past comments directed at Fauci were a “metaphor.” Fauci, in a Sunday appearance on ABC’s “This Week,” was asked about Bannon’s earlier remarks. The former Trump adviser argued that his past comments suggesting that Fauci and FBI Director Christopher Wray should be beheaded were a metaphor. Fauci pushed back on Bannon, saying some people could act on comments like that. “Yeah, that’s nonsense, ‘figure of speech.’ Words matter, and he thinks it’s figure of speech. And then you have maybe one of out 500 out there who’s a wacko, who doesn’t think it’s a figure of speech, and thinks it’s a mandate to go ahead and do something,” Fauci said. “And so, these people that say they can say anything they want but it’s a figure of speech, don’t buy that. That’s nonsense. Words matter,” Fauci added. Bannon, a one-time strategist to former President Trump, has been ordered to report to prison by July 1 over his contempt of Congress charges. In an earlier interview on “This Week,” Bannon defended himself over his past remarks calling for Wray’s and Fauci’s heads to be on pikes. “In this town, a thousand times a day, people go, ‘We got to put their heads on pike. We have put his head on a pike.’ It was a metaphor,” Bannon said. ABC’s Jonathan Karl noted that Bannon made those comments when Fauci and Wray were “facing death threats.” “It’s a total metaphor. Anybody understands that. That’s your — by the way, they banned us I think on Twitter. They banned us on Facebook for that. And guess what? The show got even bigger,” Bannon responded.
Post debate polls: Joe Biden losing ground to Donald Trump -Polling has started to come out following last week’s presidential debate between former President Trump and President Biden, showing some indications of Trump gaining in the aftermath. Anticipation for the debate built up in advance for both candidates, but especially for Biden, who was hoping to use the night to overcome worries that he’s not up to the job of president for four more years. Instead, he at times stumbled over his words, struggled to make clear statements on policy positions and did not present significant energy that many Democrats wanted to see. Although Trump made numerous false statements throughout the debate — significantly more than Biden — he came off as more competent and cognizant during the night, despite the candidates’ ages being similar. Accordingly, polling respondents have mostly said Trump was the winner of the debate, and the former president has seen a subsequent rise in the polls. But it’s still less than a week after the debate, and the change has been more modest than some might expect. “I don’t know how anyone looks at the debate performance in some of the after-reaction about who won the debate and says, ‘Hey, this is going to be helpful to the president’s numbers.’ I think the question is, you know, how hurtful will it be?” said Scott Tranter, the director of data science at Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). Biden was already trailing Trump a bit heading into the debate. Although the national polling had been a bit mixed with each candidate slightly ahead at times, the former president has mostly led the incumbent by at least a few points in the roughly half-dozen key battleground states that will likely decide the election.
Major media outlets continue campaign to replace fading Biden following public unmasking -- Years of Democratic Party hacks and media figures claiming President Joe Biden was actually lucid and sharp “behind closed doors” exploded during Thursday’s debate with ex-President Donald Trump. The visible disintegration of the 81-year-old president has provoked a major crisis within the Democratic Party, prompting normally loyal capitalist media outlets to issue several worried columns and statements demanding Biden be replaced as the party’s nominee for president. While it is unclear at this time if Biden will be removed from the ticket, the public confirmation that the president is sinking physically and mentally has exacerbated the US political crisis. The New York Times reported that family members, at an allegedly preplanned gathering on Sunday at Camp David, urged Biden to stay in the race. More important than the counsel of his family, the newspaper pointed out, the real test of viability for Biden will come on Monday at 5:30 p.m., at which time the reelection campaign will host “what could be a critical call with its national fund-raising committee.” “Many insiders have said,” the Times wrote, “that preserving the donor base will be key to the president staying in the race.” There is immense concern within the Democratic Party elite that Biden’s performance will scare off the base of the Democratic Party billionaire and multi-millionaire donors, all but ensuring Biden’s defeat. Axios reported over the weekend that top White House officials including Chief of Staff Jeff Zients, Counselor Steven Ricchetti, and senior adviser Anita Dunn “worked the phones” calling “donors, allies and elected officials, trying to calm nerves.” Leading up to Monday’s pivotal discussion with the donors, major pro-Democratic Party media outlets have continued to unleash a barrage of columns calling on Biden to step down. Writing in the Atlantic, Rogé Karma observed, “there are no plausible theories left of how Biden could win the election. Last night was the test of whether Biden was up for the job of campaigning, and he failed it. This wasn’t just a weak performance… The man could hardly speak. To believe that things will somehow turn around come September, when the next debate is scheduled, would be delusional.” Karma’s column follows another article in the Atlantic by Mark Leibovich which likewise declared, “Time to Go, Joe.” The New York Times and its editorial board, which has spearheaded the campaign to pressure Biden to withdraw, continued to pump out columns calling for Biden to quit. Times columnist Thomas Friedman wrote on June 28, “Joe Biden, a good man and a good president, has no business running for re-election.” On June 29, in a column headlined, “The Ghastly vs. the Ghostly,” Maureen Dowd wrote, “Biden looked ghostly, with that trepidatious gait; he couldn’t remember his rehearsed lines or numbers. He has age-related issues, and those go in only one direction.” That same day, Times columnist Ross Douthat wrote in a separate column about “the necessity of removing President Biden from the Democratic ticket…” In a front-page editorial published Sunday, the editorial board of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) called on Biden to “pass the torch” in order to “defeat Trump and for the good of the nation.” The AJC is owned by the Cox family, estimated by Forbes to be the 10th-wealthiest family in America as of 2024, with a net worth of $26.4 billion. In a column published on Sunday, Edward Luce for the Financial Times argued “It is not too late for Joe Biden to go,” suggesting governors Gavin Newsom (California) and Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan) as potential alternatives.
Biden campaign in free fall as Democrats privately and publicly call on president to withdraw --Fallout from President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with Donald Trump has intensified the crisis within the Democratic Party and the US ruling class as a whole. The degrading spectacle has not only exposed the bankruptcy of both candidates, but the parties they represent, the donors that fund them, the media that has propped them up and the capitalist system as a whole. In a column posted Tuesday night (”The Question President Biden Needs to Ask Himself. Now.”), Thomas Friedman of the New York Times broached fundamental issues of concern within the Democratic Party and the ruling class more broadly about a second Biden term. Those concerns are focused first of all on US imperialism’s plans for a vast escalation of the war against Russia over Ukraine, and its preparations for military conflict with Iran and China.Friedman asked: “Is this the man you want answering the phone at 3 a.m. if the Russians or the Chinese or the Iranians attack us?”Many Democrats who previously defended Biden’s mental faculties and still defend his record of war and austerity have begun publicly, and privately, calling on him to withdraw from the race. On Tuesday morning, Texas Rep. Lloyd Doggett became the first congressional Democrat to publicly call on Biden to give way. In his statement, Doggett, who was first elected in 1995, wrote:[F]or more than a year, many Americans have indicated dissatisfaction with their choices in this election. President Biden has continued to run substantially behind Democratic senators in key states and in most polls has trailed Donald Trump. I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to change that. It did not.Doggett drew a historical parallel to President Lyndon B. Johnson, noting that he “made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same.”While running for reelection, Johnson, like Biden today, was deeply hated by large swaths of the population over his support for imperialist war. In the case of Johnson, it was his expansion of the war in Vietnam, which drove millions to protest and chant, “Hey, hey, LBJ, how many kids did you kill today?”Today, and for all time, “Genocide Joe” will be remembered as the main weapons supplier not only to the fascistic Zelensky regime, but also to the Butcher of Gaza, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Following Doggett’s statement, a growing number of Democratic politicians gave public and private statements as well as interviews calling on Biden to step aside. In an article headlined, “As Biden digs in, some top Democrats want him out of the race this week,” CNN cited a “House Democratic lawmaker” who told it:There’s a large and increasing group of House Democrats concerned about the president’s candidacy, representing a broad swath of the caucus. We are deeply concerned about his trajectory and his ability to win. We want to give him space to make a decision, but we will be increasingly vocal about our concerns if he doesn’t. CNN added that “multiple Democrats” told the network their “patience is wearing thin” and they were hoping Biden would make the decision to step down “himself.”
As calls mount for Biden’s withdrawal and resignation, White House pushes ahead with war policies -- The White House and the Biden re-election campaign held a series of crisis meetings Wednesday amid mounting calls from the corporate media and leading Democrats for Biden to withdraw from the presidential election and allow the Democratic Party to nominate an alternative candidate. The most far-reaching appeal came from The Atlantic magazine, which published an editorial calling not just for Biden to end his candidacy but his presidency as well. The editorial urged Biden to resign and thus allow Vice President Kamala Harris to assume power as his successor. This would also make her the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination and prevent a contested convention next month. The Boston Globe joined the New York Times, Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Chicago Tribune in urging Biden to withdraw as a candidate for re-election after his disastrous performance in last Thursday’s debate with fascist Republican ex-President Donald Trump where he appeared befuddled and unable to complete a sentence, let alone make an argument. The Globe declared: Serious questions are now in play about his ability to complete the arduous work of being leader of the free world. Can he negotiate with a hostile Republican Congress, dangerous foreign powers, or even fractious rivals within his own Cabinet? The nation’s confidence has been shaken. By “nation,” of course, the newspaper means the corporate ruling elite. A second Democratic congressman, Raul Grijalva of Arizona, publicly urged Biden to step aside as the party’s nominee, joining Lloyd Doggett of Texas. Three other Democrats have flatly declared that Biden will lose the election, while stopping short of urging him not to run: Jared Golden of Maine and Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, both military combat veterans, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington state. Reuters reported that a letter from 25 Democratic members of the House of Representatives is now circulating, calling on Biden to end his bid for re-election. Unnamed members said they expected the letter and its list of supporters would not surface until after the Fourth of July holiday weekend and likely with many more names added. In a conference call with campaign staff, with Harris joining as well, Biden declared that he would not be pushed out of the election. But he offered no way to offset the devastating impact of the nationally televised debacle. Inside the White House, Chief of Staff Jeffrey Zients held a conference call with the entire presidential staff, although it was entirely one-sided. The call lasted only 10 minutes, Zients took no questions, and he urged all White House employees to keep their heads down and focus on their day-to-day work. Zients also reportedly held his regular weekly virtual meeting with the members of Biden’s cabinet, without either Biden or Harris participating, with little information leaking out except the fact of the meeting itself. Biden himself was reportedly engaged in a series of phone calls with top Democratic congressional leaders—astonishingly, he had apparently not spoken with Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, or anyone else in the House or Senate leadership since his disastrous performance in last Thursday night’s debate with Trump. Nor had Biden spoken with a single one of the nearly two dozen Democratic governors, including those in states vital to his re-election campaign, such as Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina. Biden did hold a conference call with all the Democratic governors on Wednesday night, with no details yet available as of this writing. In its last-ditch efforts to head off the meltdown of Biden’s political support, the White House is focusing on his role as “commander-in-chief” and principal architect of the US-NATO war against Russia in Ukraine. At the first formal White House press briefing since last week’s debate, Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre began by announcing “a significant new security assistance package for Ukraine.” She added: This announcement is the seventh security assistance package President Biden has authorized to help Ukraine since he signed the national security supplemental in April. It includes missiles for Ukraine’s air defense systems, ammunition for high mobility artillery, rocket systems, artillery rounds, and other critical capabilities being drawn down from US stocks. What followed, however, was a barrage of questions about Biden’s debate performance, his health, whether he would quit the election campaign or even resign from office. Jean-Pierre replied “absolutely not” to all such suggestions. A new round of questions focused on whether Biden would be capable of leading next week’s NATO summit in Washington, marking the 75th anniversary of the US-led military alliance. There were suggestions that major foreign leaders, both antagonists and “allies,” must be questioning the ability of the United States to maintain its dominance, given the stark decline in the capacities of the American president.
Biden says he almost fell asleep on debate stage, blames foreign travel = President Biden on Tuesday blamed foreign travel for his poor debate performance, saying that he almost fell asleep on the stage last week. “I wasn’t very smart. I decided to travel around the world a couple of times … shortly before the debate,” he said while talking to donors at a fundraiser in Virginia. “I didn’t listen to my staff … and then I almost fell asleep on stage.” The president was in Camp David for debate prep for a whole week before it, traveling there on June 20. He left Camp David on the morning of June 27 to travel to Atlanta for the debate. He returned from a trip to Italy for the Group of Seven summit on June 14, six days before heading to Camp David. Before the trip to Italy, he traveled to France for the D-Day anniversary, which is on June 6. “It’s not an excuse but an explanation,” Biden said Tuesday.
"I Almost Fell Asleep Onstage" - Biden Blames Debate-Debacle On Jet-Lag, But... Desperately trying to outrace a growing wave of pleas to abandon his reelection campaign, President Biden on Tuesday dubiously blamed his terrible debate performance on exhaustion from a busy June travel schedule. However, as he was speaking, theNew York Times was firing yet another torpedo at his presidency, publishing an article in which various US and foreign officials said his mental lapses have grown more frequent and pronounced in recent months. Speaking at a campaign fundraiser in McLean, Virginia, Biden struck an apologetic tone as he acknowledged widespread Democratic disappointment in his Thursday debate with Donald Trump. He also tried to blame his performance -- characterized by long pauses, garbled answers, a weak, raspy voice and slack-jawed staring when it wasn't his turn to speak -- on his June travel schedule. “I decided to travel around the world a couple of times…shortly before the debate. I didn’t listen to my staff … and then I almost fell asleep onstage. It’s not an excuse but an explanation." However, the timing of Biden's international travel undermines his claim. He traveled to France for D-Day commemoration festivities from June 5 to 9. After returning to the United States, he went to Italy for a G-7 Summit on June 13 and 14. From there, he headed directly to a Los Angeles fundraiser on June 15. That was the end of it -- the debate was 12 days after the travel whirlwind ended. Keep in mind, too, it's not like Biden was schlepping a roller-bag through airports. It's hard to imagine a more luxurious and rest-accommodating mode of international travel than what a US president experiences on Air Force One, to say nothing of the traffic-clearing motorcades that whisk him from point to point upon his arrival On top of that, Biden capped his travel with a restful stay at his Rehoboth Beach, Delaware home before spending the next week at Camp David preparing for the debate. There, his daily schedule reportedly started at 11 am with time allocated for daily afternoon naps. The travel excuse is all so implausible, even the fellow travelers at CNN can't bring themselves to endorse it: Biden says he 'almost fell asleep standing up' during the debate. Even CNN Pravda is laughing at this excuse.pic.twitter.com/TOWqIrWOD7 Around the same time Biden was trying to convince donors that his obvious dementia is really jet lag, the Times delivered another broadside to the 81-year-old's campaign, relating damning accounts from several US and foreign officials and others who say they've observed Biden in private and have seen a notable decline in recent months. Here's just a sampling from the lengthy Times report:
- "People in the room with him more recently said that the lapses seemed to be growing more frequent, more pronounced and more worrisome."
- "The recent moments of disorientation generated concern among advisers and allies alike. He seemed confused at points during a D-Day anniversary ceremony in France on June 6. The next day, he misstated the purpose of a new tranche of military aid to Ukraine when meeting with its president."
- "On June 10, he appeared to freeze up at an early celebration of the Juneteenth holiday."
- "On June 18, his soft-spoken tone and brief struggle to summon the name of his homeland security secretary at an immigration event unnerved some of his allies at the event, who traded alarmed looks and later described themselves as 'shaken up'.”
- "By many accounts, as evidenced by video footage, observation and interviews, Mr. Biden is not the same today as he was even when he took office 3½ years ago. The White House regularly releases corrected transcripts of his remarks, in which he frequently mixes up places, people or dates."
- "He often confuses names and details and makes statements that are incoherent."
- "During a meeting...with President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Mr. Biden spoke so softly it was almost impossible to hear."
- "[Italian Prime Minister] Meloni and the other leaders were acutely sensitive to Mr. Biden’s physical condition, discussing it privately among themselves."
- "Asked if one could imagine putting Mr. Biden into the same room with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia today, a former U.S. official who had helped prepare for the trip went silent for a while, then said, 'I just don’t know.' A former senior European official answered the same question by saying flatly, 'No'.”
As we've seen in recent days, others in Biden's circle stepped forward to avow that he's sharp and energetic behind closed doors. However, having seen Biden's debate performance for themselves -- and as more and more officials provide disturbing accounts of his decline -- only the most self-deluding Democrats are willing to credit these reassuring accounts, or Biden's jet lag excuse:
Kamala Harris running closer to Trump than Biden in new CNN poll -- Vice President Harris is running closer to former President Trump than President Biden is, according to a new poll.The CNN poll released Tuesday found that 45 percent of registered voters would support Harris in a hypothetical match-up with Trump. She is 2 percentage points behind the former president, who received 47 percent support in a head-to-head contest with Harris. Five percent of respondents said they would choose someone else.On the other hand, Biden trailed Trump by 6 points in the poll. Trump is leading with 49 percent support in a match-up with the president, while Biden received 43 percent support. Another 4 percent said they would vote for someone else.The poll was conducted after Biden’s shaky performance in last week’s debate, which has prompted concerns from within the Democrat Party over whether he is the best candidate they can put forward. Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) on Tuesday became the first House Democrat to publicly call on Biden to remove himself from the ticket, while numerous editorial boards across the country have urged the same.The debate has thrown Harris into the national spotlight as she navigates defending Biden and his ability to serve while some people have called on her to replace him. Former Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) said Tuesday that Harris should replace the president at the top of the ticket, adding that she will “destroy Trump in debate.”Despite these worries and calls to drop out of the race, the Biden campaign and its surrogates have maintained that the president is still the best candidate to beat Trump. Biden’s team has tried to quell concerns about his debate, emphasizing that Biden will not be leaving the race.The poll also found that 75 percent of registered voters polled said Democrats would have a better shot of winning the White House with someone else as their candidate. This includes 56 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independent voters.The poll was conducted among 1,274 respondents between June 28 and 30. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Elon Musk accuses Kamala Harris of lying about Trump's abortion stance --Elon Musk on Monday accused Vice President Harris of lying about former President Trump supporting a national abortion ban, after a community note was apparently added to a post from her campaign account.“When will politicians, or at least the intern who runs their account, learn that lying on this platform doesn’t work anymore?” Musk wrote on his social platform X on Monday morning, attaching a screenshot of Harris’s statement with a community note adding context.By Monday afternoon, Harris’s post did not include a community note. It is not clear when, and for how long, the note was there.In her original post on Sunday, Harris wrote that “Donald Trump would ban abortion nationwide,” adding, “President @JoeBiden and I will do everything in our power to stop him and restore women’s reproductive freedom.”Musk also commented directly on Harris’s post on X, writing Sunday night, “He clearly said he would not do so in the debate.”Trump’s position on abortion has been at the heart of many campaign debates this cycle. For months, he teased that he would announce his official position on the contentious issue, and, in April, announced abortion laws should be left up to states.In that announcement, he avoided taking a position on a federal abortion ban, but soon after said he would not sign such a ban, noting, “because we don’t need it any longer. Because we broke Roe v. Wade.”The Biden-Harris campaign hit back at Musk’s accusation, linking to earlier reporting about Trump privately signaling that he would support a 16-week ban, before his official announcement on the issue.The campaign also noted Trump has repeatedly touted his role in overturning Roe v. Wade, pointing to the three justices he appointed who provided the majority necessary to do so. The campaign also pointed to Trump’s varied public statements on the matter in recent months.“Elon Musk can Google it: Donald Trump wants to ban abortion nationwide, allow his allies to ban medication abortion and contraception, and use the power of the government to harass and punish women,” campaign spokesperson James Singer said in a statement.
70 percent of voters have decided who they will back in November: Poll - More than 7 in 10 voters have already decided whom they will vote for in the November presidential election, according to a new poll. The Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released Monday showed 72 percent of respondents said they have already made up their minds, while 28 percent said they are still weighing their choices. That’s a slight change from a May iteration of the poll that found 69 percent saying they have decided. Pollsters found voters that favor Trump were more likely to have decided with confidence whom they’ll back, with 76 percent of them saying they have made up their minds compared to 68 percent of Biden supporters. That may provide additional comfort to Trump, who leads Biden in a head-to-head match-up in the poll by 6 points, 47 percent support to 41 percent, with 8 percent undecided. The Biden campaign is trying to limit the damage following last week’s presidential debate, where Biden’s performance was widely seen as underwhelming if not disqualifying. He at times stumbled over his words and struggled to make clear statements on policy issues in response to the moderators’ questions. Pollsters found among those who watched or heard about the debate, a slightly higher percentage of 75 percent said they have decided who they will vote for. A plurality of respondents, 43 percent, said they watched the entire debate, while 28 percent said they saw some of it or watched clips online and 16 percent said they read or heard commentary on it. Republicans were the most likely to have watched all or part of it at 80 percent, followed by Democrats at 70 percent and independents at 62 percent. Trump’s advantage among voters who have made up their minds aligns with the party breakdown on the same question. Republican respondents were more likely to say in the poll they have made up their mind, at 84 percent compared to Democratic respondents at 72 percent. Independents were more split, with 58 percent saying they’ve decided and 42 percent still considering their choices.
Joe Biden after July 4th speech: 'I'm not going anywhere' -President Biden said he’s “not going anywhere” and took a swipe at former President Trumpduring remarks before service members and military families who had gathered at the White House for a Fourth of July barbecue.Biden spoke for about four minutes, then made some unscripted remarks at a barbecue for active-duty military service members and their families outside the White House.“I was in a World War I cemetery in France, and […] the former president, didn’t want to go and be up there. Which I probably shouldn’t have said,” Biden said during his remarks, prompting a murmur of laughter. “Anyway, we gotta just remember who the hell we are. We’re the United States of America,” Biden continued.Biden took a similar dig at Trump during the first presidential debate last Thursday, referencing a 2020 report in The Atlantic that alleged the former president disparaged service members as “suckers” and “losers,” which Trump denies.A supporter then yelled to Biden, “Keep up the fight. We need you,” and the president replied, “You got me, man. I’m not going anywhere.”The president’s public events have been heavily scrutinized since last week’s first presidential debate, where he appeared to lose his train of thought, forget words and stare off into space at points.While the party has largely coalesced behind Biden, three House Democrats have called on the president to drop out of the race since Tuesday.His team has conceded the performance was poor but has pushed back strongly on calls for him to step aside, saying he’s focused on beating Trump.Trump has been uncharacteristically quiet as Biden battles for his political future.
Abigail Disney says she'll stop donating to Democrats unless they replace Biden -A Disney heiress says she plans to stop donating to the Democratic Party unless President Biden drops out of the 2024 race after his dismaying debate performance against former President Trump last week.“I intend to stop any contributions to the party unless and until they replace Biden at the top of the ticket. This is realism, not disrespect. Biden is a good man and has served his country admirably, but the stakes are far too high,” Abigail Disney, granddaughter of The Walt Disney Company co-founder Roy O. Disney, told CNBC Thursday.“If Biden does not step down the Democrats will lose. Of that I am absolutely certain. The consequences for the loss will be genuinely dire,” she added.Disney is a longtime Democratic donor, contributing nearly $2 million to federal Democratic candidates, committees and groups since 1992, according to The Hill’s analysis of Federal Election Commission (FEC) contributions. She’s donated a combined $63,000 so far this cycle, including a $50,000 contribution to the Jane Fonda Climate PAC in April. Disney donated $343,460 during the 2020 election cycle, according to FEC contribution data, including $10,000 contribution to the Warnock Victory Fund during now-Sen. Raphael Warnock’s (D-Ga.) critical runoff against Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.). Warnock’s victory helped flip the Democrats win control of the Senate that cycle.The 81-year-old Biden sparked concern last week when he appeared to lose his train of thought, forget words and stare into space during the first presidential debate against Trump last week.The campaign has acknowledged that it was a bad showing but pushed back on calls that he should drop out, arguing his record over the last three-and-a-half years outweighs his performance in a 90-minute debate.
Moderate Dem Jared Golden: ‘Donald Trump is going to win. And I’m OK with that’ -Rep. Jared Golden (Maine), a moderate Democrat, published an op-ed Tuesday arguing former President Trump is going to win the election and he’s “OK with that.”Golden, who has held his seat in the House since 2019, wrote a piece published in the Bangor Daily News, headlined, “Donald Trump is going to win the election and democracy will be just fine,” in response to the outcry of concern from his party following President Biden’s lackluster debate performance.The Maine congressman argued that Biden’s on-stage presence didn’t rattle him like it did others because the outcome of the 2024 presidential election has been clear to him for months.“While I don’t plan to vote for him, Donald Trump is going to win. And I’m OK with that,” Golden wrote.The House Democrat argued that others in his party are concerned that if Trump wins the election this fall, it will be a threat to democracy. The proclamations from Golden’s party were only exacerbated after the Supreme Court on Monday granted broad immunity to Trump in his Jan. 6 case.Golden said he rejects the idea that Trump will overturn American democracy. He said sounding the alarm about a Trump victory ignores the strength of a nearly 250-year-old nation.“Unlike Biden and many others, I refuse to participate in a campaign to scare voters with the idea that Trump will end our democratic system,” he said.
Third House Democrat says Biden should bow out of presidential race -- Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.) on Thursday became the third House Democrat to publicly call on President Biden to step out of the presidential race after a weak debate performance last week that left his allies shaken. “President Biden has done enormous service to our country, but now is the time for him to follow in one of our founding father, George Washington’s, footsteps and step aside to let new leaders rise up and run against [former President Trump],” Moulton said on Boston-area radio station WBUR Thursday. Moulton,who competed against Biden for the 2020 presidential nomination, had said Wednesday that his party should look into “all viable options,” as questions swirl around Biden being able to remain at the top of the Democratic ticket.“When your current strategy isn’t working, it’s rarely the right decision to double down. President Biden is not going to get younger,” Moulton said in a statement Wednesday.The White House was insistent Wednesday that Biden is not leaving the presidential race, and party leaders have publicly backed him. Biden said in a fundraising email Wednesday that nobody “is pushing” him “out” of the race.“I’m the Democratic Party’s nominee,” according to the fundraising email. “No one is pushing me out. I’m not leaving, I’m in this race to the end, and WE are going to win this election. If that’s all you need to hear, pitch in a few bucks to help [Vice President Harris] and me defeatDonald Trump in November.”Still, cracks began to emerge this week in Democrats’ support for Biden. Centrist Democratic Reps. Jared Golden (Maine) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) have both said they believe Trump will beat Biden in November. And several Democrats privately told The Hill that conversations about Biden’s standing at the top of the ticket have been underway behind the scenes since the debate.Moulton joins his House colleagues Reps. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) and Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) in publicly calling on Biden to withdraw from the race.
Michelle Obama only Democrat to best Donald Trump in postdebate poll --Former first lady Michelle Obama is the only Democrat to beat former President Trump in a new poll Tuesday.The survey, conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, found Obama was the only Democrat with a lead on Trump in a hypothetical match-up, garnering 50 percent support to his 39 percent. Only 4 percent of respondents said they would not vote at all.Meanwhile, the poll found, President Biden and Trump are neck and neck in a head-to-head match-up. They each received 40 percent of the vote, while 8 percent said they would vote for someone else, and another 8 percent said they would not vote.Obama was the top choice among Democrats to replace Biden on the 2024 ticket, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released in February. Despite her popularity, the former first lady has repeatedly said she will not be pursuing a bid for the White House.The poll comes after a rocky debate performance from Biden last week, where he appeared to stumble over his words and lacked energy. The poor showing has prompted some Democrats to call for him to step down from the ballot and make room for someone else take the reins. Other Democrats floated as potential replacements to Biden in the poll included Vice President Harris, who received 42 percent in a head-to-head match-up with Trump, who received 43 percent. California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) trailed Trump by 3 percentage points, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) trailed by 5 points in a hypothetical contest with the presumptive GOP nominee.
Meghan McCain: Biden won't be elected to a second term 'one way or another' -Meghan McCain, the daughter of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), said President Biden will not be elected to another term “one way or another.”“Joe Biden can step aside for another candidate or lose in historic numbers in a few months — but one way or another he will not be President soon and this is something his family should start coming to terms with since they all seem to be living in a severe level of delusion,” McCainsaid in a post on social platform X Friday. McCain’s words come after a week of tension among Democrats in the aftermath of ashaky debate performance last Thursday. Biden sounded raspy and stumbled over his words during the CNN debate, which set off questions among Democrats as to whether he should remain the party’s candidate.The White House was insistent earlier this week that Biden is not leaving the presidential race, and Biden said in a fundraising email sent Wednesday that nobody “is pushing” him “out.”“I’m the Democratic Party’s nominee,” the fundraising email read. “No one is pushing me out. I’m not leaving, I’m in this race to the end, and WE are going to win this election. If that’s all you need to hear, pitch in a few bucks to help [Vice President Harris] and me defeat Donald Trump in November.”In another post on X early Saturday morning, McCain said that “hysterical Biden defenders are exactly the same as the hysterical Trump defenders and frankly this cult worship of our presidents is really scary and exactly the opposite of what that position was intended to be when created by our founding fathers.
Nate Silver says Joe Biden should resign following ABC interview -- Pollster Nate Silver, the founder of ABC’s FiveThirtyEight, called for President Biden to withdraw from the 2024 White House race after making “incoherent comments” in his first post debate interview Friday.Earlier Friday, Silver wrote a column about whether a model could appropriately determine Biden’s chances of winning the election, as voters remain skeptical of his abilities more than a week after his poor debate performance.Silver, who viewed Biden’s interview with ABC anchor George Stephanopoulos before it was aired publicly Friday evening, posted to social platform X with a change of tune.“This is a pretty incoherent answer including a non-sequitur [complaining] about a New York Times poll, which he incorrectly claims had him down 10 points before the debate,” Silver wrote on X, sharing a clip of the interview. He added that The New York Times survey only had Biden down 3 or 4 points. “I wimped out in today’s column and deleted a line saying he should formulate a plan to transition the presidency to [Vice President] Harris within 30-60 days, but I’m there now,” Silver said. “Something is clearly wrong here.”He joins a growing list of people calling on the president to preserve his legacy by stepping aside and allowing someone new to take on former President Trump this November.“The most generous way to put it is that he doesn’t seem in command, and that’s an extremely hard sell when you’re Commander in Chief,” Silver said.
Here's how the process works if Democrats replace Biden --Amid rising pressure for President Biden to withdraw from the race, questions are looming over the mechanics of getting another Democrat on the ballot ahead of November. Democrats do have a path forward: The filing deadline for the party to get their presidential candidate on the ballot in most states hasn’t been met yet, and there are avenues within the party over how to choose a new candidate if need be.Much of the chatter over Biden’s fate for now is speculation, as the president and his campaignmaintain he is committed to running for another term. Still, some Democrats have expressed uncertainty over his electoral chances against Trump in November, while others have called for him to drop out immediately, injecting uncertainty into an already chaotic election cycle. Here’s what to know about the rules governing a new Democratic presidential pick:
Donald Trump mocks Joe Biden's debate showing in rant asking him to stay in the race -- Former President Trump mocked President Biden’s showing in their recent presidential debate and encouraged him to stay in the race in a post on Truth Social Saturday.“Crooked Joe Biden should ignore his many critics and move forward, with alacrity and strength, with his powerful and far reaching campaign,” Trump said in his post.The call from Trump comes amidst just over a week of tension among Democrats in the aftermath of a shaky debate performance last Thursday. Biden sounded raspy and stumbled over his words during the CNN debate, which set off questions among Democrats as to whether he should remain the party’s candidate.“He should be sharp, precise, and energetic, just like he was in The Debate, in selling his policies of Open Borders (where millions of people, including record numbers of Terrorists, are allowed to enter our Country, from prisons and mental institutions, totally unchecked and unvetted!), to Ending Social Security, Men playing in Women’s sports, High Taxes, High Interest Rates, encouraging a Woke Military, Uncontrollable Inflation, Record Setting Crime, Only Electric Vehicles, Subservience to China and other Countries, Endless Wars, putting America Last, losing our Dollar Based Standard, and so much more. Yes, Sleepy Joe should continue his campaign of American Destruction and, MAKE CHINA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump said in his post Saturday.Five House Democrats have publicly called on Biden to step out of the presidential race following the debate. On the topic of whether he could be convinced to leave the race, Biden said in an ABC interview Friday “if the Lord Almighty came down and said, ‘Joe, get out of the race,’ I’d get out of the race. The Lord Almighty’s not comin’ down.” The White House and Biden allies have been insistent that Biden is not leaving the race, and Biden said in a fundraising email sent earlier this week that nobody “is pushing” him “out.” “I’m the Democratic Party’s nominee,” the fundraising email read. “No one is pushing me out. I’m not leaving, I’m in this race to the end, and WE are going to win this election. If that’s all you need to hear, pitch in a few bucks to help [Vice President Harris] and me defeat Donald Trump in November.”
Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied in presidential race, new poll reveals -President Biden and former President Trump are even in the race for the White House, according to a poll of the race Reuters and Ipsos published Wednesday.Each candidate received 40 percent support in the poll. That’s a 2-point improvement for Biden, who trailed Trump 41 percent to 39 percent in an identical poll in mid-June. A fifth of respondents were undecided.The results for Biden could lessen concerns about his candidacy after a poor debate performance last week. A rising number of Democrats have called on Biden to leave the presidential campaign and let another candidate lead the ticket in November.The poll found that 32 percent of Democrats believe Biden should leave the campaign.Regarding the debate, 83 percent of Democrats and 97 percent of Republicans agreed Biden “stumbled” and “appeared to show his age” during the 90-minute contest, while just 58 percent of Democrats and 11 percent of Republicans said the same of Trump.Age has taken center stage in the election. Either Biden, 81, or Trump, 78, would be the oldest president in history at the end of a second term.Biden has rejected calls to step down and has characterized his debate performance as a one-time flub.Vice President Harris has been a top target of Democrats who have called on Biden to bow out of the presidential race, though she has backed the president publicly.The poll found Harris 1 point behind Trump, with 42 percent support to the former president’s 43 percent, well within the poll’s margin of error. The Reuters and Ipsos poll surveyed about 1,000 voters, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent.
Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good ousted, delivering victory to Donald Trump -- House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R) has narrowly lost his primary in Virginia to Trump-backed challenger John McGuire, delivering the former president a victory in one of the cycle’smost tumultuous nominating contests, according to Decision Desk HQ. McGuire, a state senator, defeated Good, a two-term House Republican, in the GOP primary for Virginia’s 5th Congressional District, after the race dragged on for days due to the slim margin separating the two candidates. Following the race call, Good said he would push for a recount. “In a race with nearly 63,000 votes that is separated by a 0.6% margin, Republican voters across the 5th District deserve to know that all legal votes have been accurately counted,” he announced. “We will vigorously pursue that objective over the coming days and weeks, as permitted by Virginia law.” Under Virginia law, recounts can be triggered when the candidate who lost was defeated by a margin of up to 1 percent. The state covers expenses of the recount if the margin is up to half a percentage point, otherwise the contesting candidate foots the bill for the recount. The difference between the two candidates was 0.6 percent, meaning Good will have to foot the expenses for the recount in whichever jurisdictions he requests it from specifically. Good made a name for himself as a rabble-rouser within the House GOP caucus, bucking his own party at pivotal moments. Among the moves that rankled some in his party were his vote to oust former Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from his Speakership; voting against the debt ceiling deal reached between President Biden and McCarthy last year; and voting down a foreign aid package that included aid to Ukraine and Israel. But the biggest tipping point came during the GOP presidential primary, when Good endorsed Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Trump in the race, drawing the former president’s ire. Good ultimately backed Trump once DeSantis dropped out.
RFK Jr. says ‘I won’t take sides on 9/11’ --Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Friday he “won’t take sides” on the subject of the truth of the 9/11 attacks but would push for transparency if elected president. Kennedy wrote in a post on the social platform X that the government “routinely” lying makes determining what is a conspiracy theory and what isn’t difficult to determine but he would not favor one side on theories about 9/11.“My take on 9/11: It’s hard to tell what is a conspiracy theory and what isn’t. But conspiracy theories flourish when the government routinely lies to the public. As President I won’t take sides on 9/11 or any of the other debates,” Kennedy said. “But I can promise is that I will open the files and usher in a new era of transparency.” Kennedy shortly after posted a follow-up comment saying he was referring to a segment on CBS’s “60 Minutes” that recently aired discussing possible involvement from Saudi Arabia in the attacks.The federal government’s investigation on 9/11 concluded the attacks only involved the terrorist group al Qaeda and not any other entity, but some have alleged that the Saudi government played a role in assisting in the attacks or at least was complicit in them. Some family members of 9/11 victims have pressed for more information about possible Saudi involvement in the attacks.The “60 Minutes” report revealed video of a Saudi intelligence operative with ties to two of the hijackers standing outside the Capitol two years before the attacks, around the time that the targets of the attack were being chosen.A group of 9/11 survivors and families have called on President Biden, former President Trump and lawmakers to address the revelation. The Saudi government has denied any involvement in the attacks and said the video is only showing tourism. Kennedy, who initially gained prominence as an activist spreading misinformation about and questioning the efficacy of vaccines, has previously made controversial comments and leaned into conspiracy theories surrounding the 2001 attacks. He said during a podcast interview in September that he doesn’t “know what happened on 9/11” and referenced a conspiracy theory surrounding 7 World Trade Center, a smaller building in the complex that collapsed as a result of debris from the Twin Towers. “I know there’s strange things that happened. … One of the buildings came down that wasn’t hit by a plane,” Kennedy said. “I don’t want to argue any theories about this, because all I’ve heard is questions. I have no explanation, I have no knowledge of it, but what you’re repeating now I know not to be true,” he continued, responding to the interviewer’s pushback on the theory about the building.
Marjorie Taylor Greene stumps for Steve Bannon as he reports to prison for contempt of Congress - Longtime Trump ally Steve Bannon was joined by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Monday in Connecticut as he rallied a small crowd before reporting to prison to begin a four-month sentence on contempt of Congress charges.“If it took me going to prison to get the House of Representatives to reject J-6, and now to actually start an investigation, it’s a victory,” Bannon said, wrapping his arm around Greene.“That is a victory, and that’s what we have to do, Steve,” Greene said. “We have to move the Republicans in the House of Representatives to act.”Bannon was found guilty on two counts of contempt of Congress in 2022 after failing to appear before or turn over documents to the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol attack, but a trial judge allowed him to remain free while he appealed.After an appeals court upheld his convictions, he filed an emergency appeal with the Supreme Court to remain out of prison as his appeal advanced. The high court denied that request Friday.Bannon surrendered and was taken into custody at the Federal Correctional Institution in Danbury, Conn., around noon. Before that, a small group of supporters — including Greene — gathered on the side of the road outside the prison, cheering and holding up signs, while a small group of protesters shouted “lock him up” and “traitor.”Bannon is the second former Trump official sentenced to jail in connection with efforts to evade the House Jan. 6 committee. Peter Navarro, a former economic adviser to then-President Trump, is serving a four-month sentence for contempt of Congress after his emergency appeals all failed, including at the Supreme Court. His release is scheduled for July 17.
What the Chevron deference ruling means for healthcare regulation -The Supreme Court has dramatically transformed the dynamic between federal agencies such as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and the entities they regulate.On Friday, the high court weakened the executive branch’s authority to interpret laws and enhanced the judiciary’s power to resolve disputes about congressional intent. On Monday, justices ruled that plaintiffs may bring suit against old regulations if they claim new injuries.Taken together, these landmark decisions throw the federal regulatory apparatus into disarray and fling open the doors to legal challenges against countless policies, past, present and future.“The decision could actually lead to a chilling effect on agency regulations,” said Michelle Long, senior policy analyst for the KFF Program on Patient and Consumer Protections.The decisions invite more lawsuits from parties that disagree with agency actions, and the threat of legal battles may encourage regulators to greater caution. Agencies may rely on nonbinding guidance and enforcement activity more and on rules less. Congress may attempt to write statutes with greater specificity and diminish the flexibility agencies have to adapt laws to new circumstances over time. Courts are now tasked with resolving even the most picayune technical questions.In the healthcare context, this upends regulatory conduct spanning from routine Medicare reimbursement updates to Food and Drug Administration reviews of emerging medical technologies. CMS policies such as nursing home staffing mandates, home health reimbursement cuts and disproportionate share hospital payments are endangered.Companies and other plaintiffs now stand a much better chance of prevailing when they allege the federal government has overstepped its bounds.The Supreme Court majority and the mostly conservative proponents of downgrading executive branch power characterize the rulings as the restoration of the legislative branch’s lawmaking authority and the judicial branch's mandate to parse the law.“Agencies have no special competence in resolving statutory ambiguities. Courts do,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in the majority opinion on Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo.At the same time, businesses, state governments and others intertwined with federal agencies and programs will have to adjust to less-nimble, slower-acting agencies and to prolonged uncertainty about the rules as courts take a more active role in the minutiae of governing.The high court’s liberal minority and their allies forewarn that the conservative majority has ensured that any semblance of consistency and stability for programs such as Medicare and Medicaid will fade, that a glut of lawsuits will clog the judiciary, and that agencies and those they regulate will be subject to rulings from judges who lack expertise in medicine and policy.“In one fell swoop, the majority today gives itself exclusive power over every open issue — no matter how expertise-driven or policy-laden — involving the meaning of regulatory law,” Justice Elena Kagan wrote in dissent of the Loper Bright decision. “In every sphere of current or future federal regulation, expect courts from now on to play a commanding role.”The most consequential of several recent decisions undermining the administrative state came on Friday, when the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 to discard 40 years of precedent set under Chevron v. Natural Resources Defense Council.That 1984 decision created a judicial presumption, known as “Chevron deference,” that agencies have expertise and the leeway to interpret laws, which heavily influenced federal jurisprudence, legislation and regulation.Under the Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo ruling, the Supreme Court effectively transferred that leeway to the judiciary when statutory language is unclear. The 6-3 ruling on Corner Post v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Monday weakens the statute of limitations for lawsuits against federal actions by allowing plaintiffs to plead new harms from old regulations.In the 6-3 ruling on Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy announced Friday, the Supreme Court made it harder for regulators to assess fines by broadening the criteria for what penalties entitle the accused to jury trials rather than administrative procedures.alter how agencies operate, said Kaye Pestaina, director of the KFF Program on Patient and Consumer Protection.Agencies such as CMS may favor issuing informal guidance to explain how they will enforce laws over engaging in formal rulemaking, Pestaina said.And when agencies do issue regulations, they probably will be more reserved and hew as close to statutory language as possible, said Stephanie Webster, a partner at the law firm Ropes & Gray.In his Loper Bright opinion, Roberts emphasizes that the ruling doesn’t erase previous court decisions that cite the now-defunct Chevron precedent. That doesn’t mean regulatory actions predating Friday are safe, however, especially given the implications of the Corner Post ruling.Federal rules already on the books and future regulations are fair game for “any good lawyer,” said Scott Lewis, senior counsel at the law firm Anderson Krieger.Healthcare companies that consider regulations too burdensome will have an easier time getting out from under them, said Sarah Somers, legal director of the National Health Law Program.At the same time, the healthcare sector is uncommonly vulnerable to an uncertain regulatory environment given its reliance on the federal government for the rules and money that promote stability, Somers said.
Immigration Proponents Get Boost From End to Chevron Doctrine -The US Supreme Court’s decision curtailing federal agencies’ leeway to interpret ambiguous laws will benefit many immigrants and businesses stymied in efforts to obtain employment-based visas and green cards, immigration lawyers said.The justices’ elimination of the Chevron doctrine has been a long-term goal of conservatives aiming to undermine the power of the federal bureaucracy. The full implications of the June 28 decision—which says courts don’t have to defer to an agency’s stance on unclear laws—will become more apparent as advocates and opponents file new litigation challenging regulations amid the altered legal regime.While scholars have said the ruling could hamstring efforts to address large-scale problems like pollution or consumer fraud, the dismantling of Chevron was welcomed by many in the immigration bar who see it as a win for immigrants and a potential hurdle for immigration restrictions. That’s because agencies like US Citizenship and Immigration Services have typically been given the benefit of the doubt by courts in defending challenges to visa denials, they said.“It’s going to be great for litigators in our space,” said Marty Robles-Avila, senior counsel at BAL Immigration Law. “It’s a net gain for non-citizens and those in the immigration community.”Still, others predict that there could be immigration “winners and losers” in a post-Chevron world, saidCyrus Mehta, managing partner of Cyrus D. Mehta & Partners PLLC. The decision could weaken the standing of large programs that are based on an agency interpretation of the Immigration and Nationality Act—like Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals—when explicit authorization doesn’t exist in a federal statute, he said.
SCOTUS overturns Chevron doctrine: What it means for climate policy The U.S. just set sail into a new era of climate and environmental policy. A Supreme Court ruling Friday constrains what the Beltway's vast bureaucracies can do without detailed instruction from Congress.The conservative majority ended "Chevron deference" — the 40-year-old doctrine that gave regulators a wide berth when underlying laws are ambiguous.It follows a 2022 ruling that already curtailed executive running room on "major questions" absent clear Capitol Hill marching orders.White House climate policy is a carrots-and-sticks approach — the 2022 climate law offers huge subsidies for low-carbon energy, while regulations are the stick.Now the power to effectively force energy companies, automakers, manufacturers and more to curb pollution has been reduced — unless Congress steps in.The ruling means even more legal peril for recent EPA rules onpower plants, cars, and more, analysts say.The power plant rule is now more likely than ever to be stayed or overturned — just in time to assist construction of new power plants to meet data center demand," Capital Alpha Partners' James Lucier said in a note. The "Chevron" ruling and the 2022 decision will play into challenges to other agencies' efforts, such as SEC climate disclosure rules. Going forward, it will likely be harder to write new climate rules based on the nation's bedrock environmental laws, which are decades old. ... The balance of power has changed a lot. It "authorizes a more muscular posture by the judiciary when reviewing decisions of administrative agencies," said Cary Coglianese, a UPenn law school expert on regulations, in a statement.
- It's hard to imagine given Capitol Hill's polarization, but down the line the ruling could help spur revisions to decades-old environmental laws.
- "Arguably, the effective removal of Chevron deference from power regulations may improve the chances for more mainstream congressional activity to fill the void," Scott Segal, a partner at Bracewell LLP who represents energy companies, tells Axios.
The two rulings will force bureaucratic officials to operate under very different parameters.
- "If I were making a new rule today I would seek to document and clarify the extent to which the central aspects of the rule are tied to factual, technical, and policy determinations," said Michael Burger, executive director of Columbia University's Sabin Center for Climate Change Law.
- "I would spend a lot less time offering legal rationales for why the decision represents a reasonable or permissible interpretation of an ambiguous statute," he said via email.
Major business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce joined conservative activists in urging SCOTUS to nix "Chevron."
- Now, business lobbyists and lawyers hope to influence the shape of future regulations in the post-Chevron world.
- U.S. Chamber CEO Suzanne P. Clark, in a statement, said the powerful group would "urge courts to faithfully interpret statutes that govern federal agencies and to ensure federal agencies act in a reasonable and lawful manner."
- Leah Dempsey of the firm Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck tells Politico the ruling will "create a lot more work for trade associations, K Street and law firms."
The bottom line: Washington is waking up to a new world.
Supreme Court Gives Trump Sword to Slash Biden Climate Rules --The US Supreme Court just overturned a longstanding legal principle of deferring to federal agencies’ power to interpret and implement laws. The ruling Friday will weaken the government’s hand in setting environmental policy and could erode existing protections for the climate, air and water. And if former President Donald Trump wins back the White House in November, it will empower his quest to roll back his predecessor’s climate regulations. “This opens space for industry to challenge every single thing that an agency does and to drag it through court for years,” said Doug Kysar, a professor of environmental law at Yale University. A victorious Trump would “certainly rely on” the decision in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo to unwind President Joe Biden’s rules, said Jeff Holmstead, a former assistant administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under George W. Bush and now a partner at Bracewell LLP. “It will obviously make it harder for a future administration to come back in and try to reinstate it.” The Trump administration also could lean on the ruling to propel oil and gas development, said Kathleen Sgamma, president of the Western Energy Alliance, an energy trade group. “I think the rollback rulemaking will be quicker,” she said. Loper Bright ended what was known as Chevron deference, a legal doctrine holding that courts should defer to the technical expertise of agency staff in interpreting unclear laws. As an example of the reasoning behind it, Justice Elena Kagan noted in a dissent, staff scientists in the US Fish and Wildlife Service can distinguish rare squirrels from common squirrels much better than judges can, for the purpose of designating them endangered. “I don’t think anybody would say, looking at the Supreme Court or judges in general, that they’re squirrel experts, right?,” asked Andrew Mergen, faculty director of the environmental law clinic at Harvard Law School and previously an environmental attorney in the Department of Justice. “The notion is that the question of ‘squirrelness’ should be left to people who are experts in wildlife biology and zoology.” On its face, the ruling is politically neutral: All executive agencies, whether working under a Republican or a Democratic president, now have less freedom to maneuver. But environmental groups and legal scholars say it will drive deregulation. “The net effect will be to weaken our government’s capacity to meet the real problems the world is throwing at us,” said David Doniger, a senior strategic director at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “It’s not a neutral sword,” Kysar said. “It’s a sword that one side can wield with way more destructive power than the other,” given that industry has deeper pockets than environmental groups. Many challenges are likely to come before Trump-appointed judges, selected in large part for their conservative bona fides and confirmed at a record pace. Two Biden-era regulations that are particularly vulnerable to pullback are EPA rules limiting greenhouse gas emissions from power plants and tailpipe emissions from vehicles. Trump has already made clear he plans to repeal both measures, but Loper Bright adds another legal justification for the shift. Any regulation that hasn’t made its way all the way to the Supreme Court — including these measures — “could, with a very reasonable argument, be pulled back and re-examined,”
Supreme Court’s Chevron, Corner Post decisions could delay energy investments, spur litigation: analysts | Utility Dive --The energy sector faces uncertainty following back-to-back U.S. Supreme Court decisions that limit federal agency authority for new rules and sharply extend the statute of limitations for filing suits for existing regulations under the Administrative Procedure Act, according to ClearView Energy Partners.The Supreme Court on Friday struck down the Chevron doctrine inLoper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and on Monday said plaintiffs can sue over regulations for up to six years after they are affected by them, instead of six years after they take effect, in Corner Post v. the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.“To the extent that uncertainty can quash investment and impair return, we would suggest that Loper Bright could have significant implications for U.S. energy infrastructure on its own,” ClearView said Monday in a client note. “And, to the degree that Corner Post provides a means for reopening (or extending) disputes, we think it could increase the amplitude and frequency of future policy flux.”Under Chevron deference, investors may have generally assumed that new agency rules were largely durable, the research firm said. Now, they may wait to invest until judicial reviews are completed, and regulated entities’ may forgo early compliance with anticipated or pending regulations, ClearView said.“This is going to inject a heightened level of litigation in courts, extraordinary uncertainty in the coming years as to what is permissible and what is not as far as establishing rules and promulgating rules, and will likely hamstring an agency's ability to move quickly,” Basil Seggos, a Foley Hoag partner, said Tuesday.The decisions could lead states to take a more expansive regulatory role, creating a growing patchwork of rules across the country and increased uncertainty for regulated entities, he said.The Chevron doctrine, established in a 1984 Supreme Court decision, held that in cases where a federal statute is ambiguous, courts must give federal agencies deference in their interpretation of the law, as long as the interpretation is reasonable. It has been cited more than 18,000 times in federal court decisions, making it the most cited administrative law case in history, according to Varu Chilakamarri, a K&L Gates partner.The court’s two decisions, plus a Thursday decision in Securities and Exchange Commission v. Jarkesy that will move certain proceedings that were handled by agency administrative law judges to the courts, will likely spark increased litigation in the federal court system, K&L Gates attorneys said during a webinar on Monday.“It really seems like you're going to have a lot of people going into court for a number of reasons,” Chilakamarri said. “First is because [withoutChevron deference] the universe of cases that you might win now that you didn't win before just got a whole lot bigger … For the regulated community, your interpretation of a statute could be given just as much weight as the agencies.”Also, there will likely be increased litigation around new rules and regulations where an agency’s statutory interpretation may be “iffy,” Chilakamarri said. The decision will likely lead agencies to be more cautious when issuing new regulations, the K&L Gates lawyers said.Litigation could take longer because judges will no longer be able to rely on agency expertise when writing decisions on often technical and complex issues, David Fine, a K&L Gates partner, said, noting that judges are typically “generalists.”There could be “bum” decisions by some judges who don't understand the technicalities of technology and science, for example, according to Fine.“So folks who think that being before judges rather than agencies helps their cause may find that judges, at least some judges, really just don't have the ability to run with this stuff to get it right,” Fine said.The court said previous cases decided using Chevron deference are subject to stare decisis, the doctrine that courts follow precedent. The original decisions would likely hold up, but they could be revisited, according to Fine. “It's a steep hill, but it's probably not an insurmountable hill,” he said.“There's a lot of open questions about what the courts, Congress and the agencies will be doing going forward,” Chilakamarri said.Generally, the demise of the Chevron doctrine isn’t expected to have a major effect on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.However, the Loper Bright and Corner Post decisions raise “potentially insurmountable hurdles” to large-scale interregional transmission development, according to Ken Irvin, a partner at Sidley Austin.“Arguments that FERC’s aspirations with Order 1920 exceed the grant of authority Congress gave in the Federal Power Act will find new vigor after Loper Bright,” Irvin said Monday in an email. “And the ruling inCorner Post about when the statute of limitation accrues (not until the plaintiff is injured by final agency action) has the potential to cast dark uncertainty over whether transmission projects can ever reach commercial service (and thus gain the ability to repay the development financing).”FERC Commissioner Mark Christie on Friday said FERC’s recently issued transmission planning and cost allocation rule — Order 1920 — relied on its previous Order 1000 as a basis for the agency to be able to issue it.Order 1000, however, was upheld in court based on Chevron deference, said Christie, who voted against Order 1920.“So the most important legal lifeline that Order No. 1920 needed was pulled away today, and the final rule’s chances of surviving court challenges just shrank to slim to none,” Christie said.When FERC considers pending requests for the agency to reconsider Order 1920, Christie said he hopes its new slate of commissioners could change its decisions “into something that can actually work in the field and is within our legal authority.”
How SCOTUS’s Chevron Decision Threatens Gun Regulations --June 28, the Supreme Court’s conservative majority struck down a four-decade-old legal precedent known as Chevron deference, which allowed federal agencies to broadly interpret federal law. The ruling could have ramifications for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, the federal agency in charge of regulating firearms, legal experts tell The Trace. “The opinion will affect gun regulations like it’ll affect all agency regulations, and perhaps more,” said Eric Ruben, an assistant law professor at Southern Methodist University. “The courts are especially divided on gun law questions right now, and there are some that will be inclined to construe federal laws that delegate authority to the ATF narrowly.”Chevron held that the courts should defer to federal agencies to interpret ambiguous federal laws. Now it will be up to the courts, as opposed to experts and scientists who work for the government, to decide whether federal laws are in line with Congress’s intent.The 6-3 ruling in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo gives the courts unprecedented veto power over federal regulation, and could also dilutethe authority of other agencies like the Food and Drug Administration, Environmental Protection Agency, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Consumer Product Safety Commission, and Department of Labor. The ATF issues rules in response to advancements in firearms technology, as it’s done in recent years with bump stocks, ghost gun kits, and pistol braces. Now it would be up to the courts, whose judges are not necessarily firearms experts, to interpret federal statutes. Congress can pass legislation directly addressing these areas of law, something the court’s conservative justices suggested when it struck downthe ATF’s bump stock rule earlier this month. But Congress is slow to action and hampered by political polarization.“The court wants Congress to take the leading role in regulating the nation,” said Adam Winkler, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles. “But one has to wonder if it’s a misplaced faith. Congress seems structurally unable to tackle any of the major problems facing the country right now.”
Supreme Court rules for North Dakota truck stop in new blow to federal regulations (AP) — The Supreme Court opened the door Monday to new, broad challenges to regulations long after they take effect, the third blow in a week to federal agencies. The justices ruled 6-3 in favor of a truck stop in North Dakota that wants to sue over a regulation on debit card swipe fees that the federal appeals court in Washington upheld 10 years ago. Federal law sets a six-year deadline for broad challenges to regulations. In this case, the regulation from the Federal Reserve governing the fees merchants must pay banks whenever customers use a debit card took effect in 2011. The deadline for lawsuits over the regulation was in 2017, the Biden administration argued. A federal appeals court agreed that Corner Post, a truck stop in Watford City in western North Dakota, mounted its challenge too late, even though it didn’t open its doors until 2018. The company appealed to the Supreme Court. The administration had urged the court to uphold the dismissal because otherwise, governmental agencies would be subject to endless challenges. Justice Amy Coney Barrett wrote for the court’s conservative majority that the six-year clock didn’t begin to run for Corner Post until it started accepting debit cards when it opened for business in 2018. The decision could take on new significance in the wake of last week’s ruling that overturned the 1984 Chevron decision that had made it easier to uphold regulations across a wide swath of American life. The court also stripped the Securities and Exchange Commission of a major tool to fight securities fraud. In a dissent joined by her liberal colleagues, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson wrote, “The tsunami of lawsuits against agencies that the Court’s holdings in this case and Loper Bright have authorized has the potential to devastate the functioning of the Federal Government.” Loper Bright is the case that overturned Chevron. Barrett called Jackson’s claim “baffling — indeed, bizarre,” though she agreed with Jackson that Congress could step in to change the time frame for challenging regulations. Dan Jarcho, a former Justice Department lawyer who has been following the case, predicted that parties like Corner Post would win their cases more often following this term’s rulings. “Combined with last week’s decision eliminating Chevron deference, the Corner Post decision will unquestionably lead to more successful litigation challenges to federal regulations, no matter which agency issued them,” Jarcho said. Chief Justice John Roberts captured the dilemma facing the court when the Corner Post case was argued in February. Agencies could face repeated challenges “10 years later, 20 years later” and “sort of have to create the universe, you know, repeatedly.” On the other hand, Roberts said, “You have an individual or an entity that is harmed by something the government is doing, and you’re saying, well, that’s just too bad, you can’t do anything about it because other people had six years to do something about it.” The legal principle that everybody is entitled to their day in court, Roberts said, “doesn’t say unless somebody else had a day in court.” Roberts was part of Monday’s majority.
Supreme Court punts challenges to Texas, Florida social media laws - The Supreme Court on Monday wiped lower court rulings regarding two state laws aimed at barring social media companies from banning users based on their political views, kicking the major First Amendment challenge down the road. For the majority, Justice Elena Kagan wrote that lower courts addressing the matter wrongly focused on the state challengers’ contention that the laws applied only to “the curated feeds offered by the largest and most paradigmatic social-media platforms.” During arguments, platforms such as Gmail and Etsy were raised as having the potential to be caught in the crossfire of the laws. “Today, we vacate both decisions for reasons separate from the First Amendment merits, because neither Court of Appeals properly considered the facial nature of NetChoice’s challenge,” Kagan wrote. The Texas and Florida laws stood to weaken companies’ ability to enforce their own rules and transform free speech online. No justices dissented, though Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito wrote concurring opinions. The decision leaves intact lower court injunctions blocking the laws from going into effect. The tech industry groups challenging the laws cheered the court’s decision and pledged to continue their advocacy as the cases go back to lower courts. “We are encouraged that a majority of the Court has made clear that the government cannot tilt public debate in its favored direction. There is nothing more Orwellian than government attempting to dictate what speech should be carried, whether it is a newspaper or a social media site,” Computer and Communications Industry Association (CCIA) President Matt Schruers said in a statement.
Trump has presumptive immunity for pressuring Mike Pence to overturn election -- More Former President Trump has presumptive immunity for pressuring then-Vice President Mike Pence to subvert the results of the presidential election in his favor by certifying slates of so-called “fake electors” on Jan. 6, 2021, the Supreme Court ruled Monday. The determination came within the justices’ highly anticipated opinion on presidential immunity, in which they ruled that core presidential powers are immune from criminal prosecution.. The decision returns Trump’s federal election interference case back to a lower court to decide whether his actions leading up to Jan. 6 merit the protection. Trump is accused of attempting to “enlist” his vice president to “fraudulently alter the election results” in seven key swing states. Roberts wrote that whenever the president and vice president are discussing official responsibilities, they are engaging in official conduct — and that presiding over the certification of presidential election results is a constitutional and statutory duty of the vice president. “The indictment’s allegations that Trump attempted to pressure the Vice President to take particular acts in connection with his role at the certification proceeding thus involve official conduct, and Trump is at least presumptively immune from prosecution for such conduct,” Roberts wrote. However, the chief justice left open the question of whether Trump’s specific conduct remains immune from criminal prosecution, leaving it for lower courts to decide. “The question then becomes whether that presumption of immunity is rebutted under the circumstances,” Roberts said. Whether a swath of other allegations is shielded by presidential immunity must also be decided by the lower courts, including Trump’s interactions with state officials, private parties and the general public. However, the justices already determined that some allegations fall squarely in Trump’s official duties and are covered by absolute immunity. Trump is accused of attempting to use the “power and authority” of the Justice Department to “conduct sham election crime investigations.” He allegedly met with the acting attorney general and other senior officials in the DOJ and White House to discuss the matter. Since the executive branch has “exclusive authority and absolute discretion” to decide which crimes to investigate and prosecute, Trump is immune from criminal prosecution on those actions. “The President cannot be prosecuted for conduct within his exclusive constitutional authority. Trump is therefore absolutely immune from prosecution for the alleged conduct involving his discussions with Justice Department officials,” Roberts wrote.
Supreme Court delivers big win for Trump on immunity: 5 takeaways - The Supreme Court on Monday delivered a win for former President Trump in largely shieldingformer presidents from criminal prosecution for actions they take while in office. The 6-3 decision along ideological lines determined presidents have absolute immunity for actions that fall within the core responsibilities of their office and are presumptively immune for all other official acts. The decision dooms various portions of special counsel Jack Smith’s case against Trump going forward, with the court writing that some of the ways the former president leveraged his power could be considered an exercise of the office.The dissenting liberal justices blasted the decision as one that “effectively creates a law-free zone around the President.”
- Justices grant broad immunity. The majority’s decision provides a broad shield to former presidents for their conduct while in the White House. It sorts conduct into three buckets: core constitutional powers, official acts and unofficial acts. For the first bucket, the court definitively ruled that former presidents are immune. “At least with respect to the President’s exercise of his core constitutional powers, this immunity must be absolute,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the majority. All other official acts are “at least presumptively” immune, putting the burden on the government and possibly protecting them entirely. “At the current stage of proceedings in this case, however, we need not and do not decide whether that immunity must be absolute, or instead whether a presumptive immunity is sufficient,” Roberts wrote. As for unofficial acts, the parties never disputed those could be prosecuted.
- Decision takes a sledgehammer to Trump’s indictment.Monday’s decision undercut much of Smith’s case against Trump, with Roberts writing that some of Trump’s efforts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election would be considered a byproduct of his official responsibilities. The opinion condoned Trump’s outreach to the Department of Justice at a time when his allies were asking prosecutors to halt certification of election results to allow for investigation into what were baseless claims of election fraud.“Trump is absolutely immune from prosecution for the alleged conduct involving his discussions with Justice Department officials,” the court wrote, adding that the executive branch has “‘absolute discretion’ to decide which crimes to investigate and prosecute.” Even Trump’s pressure campaign on former Vice President Mike Pence “involve official conduct,” the court wrote, adding that Trump is presumptively immune on the matter. The court also went a step further, writing that “courts may not inquire into the President’s motives.”
- Dissent accuses majority of ‘reshaping’ the presidency. Sotomayor’s dissent contains a series of scathing shots at the majority while warning of the potential fallout from the decision. Sotomayor argued the court was too broad in granting immunity for officials acts — one she said greenlights the abuse of presidential power. “When he uses his official powers in any way, under the majority’s reasoning, he now will be insulated from criminal prosecution. Orders the Navy’s Seal Team 6 to assassinate a political rival? Immune. Organizes a military coup to hold onto power? Immune. Takes a bribe in exchange for a pardon? Immune. Immune, immune, immune,” she wrote, nodding to a series of hypotheticals raised during April arguments. She also wrote that the decision “makes a mockery” of the principle of equal justice under law. “This new official-acts immunity now ‘lies about like a loaded weapon’ for any President that wishes to place his own interests, his own political survival, or his own financial gain, above the interests of the Nation,” her dissent read. “The relationship between the President and the people he serves has shifted irrevocably. In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.”
- Remand will kick case beyond the election. While Monday’s decision seems to doom numerous elements of Smith’s case against Trump, it still kicks the issue back to the district court for analysis — a process all but certain to punt any potential trial until after the election. Trump is facing charges on four counts in the case. Judge Tanya Chutkan will parse which elements the former president may now have immunity for, including those related to his pressure on the Justice Department. It possibly sets the stage for major hearings in Chutkan’s court in the lead-up to November’s election, even if Trump’s actual trial is delayed, as both sides battle over how to apply the Supreme Court’s test.
- Ruling falls along ideological lines.Chief Justice John Roberts has long sought to portray the Supreme Court as apolitical, famously analogizing judges to umpires who merely call “balls and strikes.”But on Monday, the court voted along its familiar 6-3 ideological lines, with the conservatives in the majority. That lineup occurred for only 11 of the court’s 59 opinions this term.The liberal dissenters accused their colleagues of “judicial activism” by “reaching out to shield some conduct as official while refusing to recognize any conduct as unofficial.” “Our dissenting colleagues exude an impressive infallibility,” Roberts responded in the majority opinion. “While their confidence may be inspiring, the Court adheres to time-tested practices instead.”
Biden: Trump's immunity decision leaves 'virtually no limits' on presidency -President Biden on Monday harshly criticized the Supreme Court’s decision to largely shield presidents from criminal prosecution while serving in office, calling it a “dangerous precedent.” “For all practical purposes, today’s decision almost certainly means that there are virtually no limits on what a president can do. It’s a fundamentally new principle,” Biden said in remarks at the White House. “It’s a dangerous precedent, because the power of the office will no longer be constrained by the law, even including the Supreme Court of the United States.” “The only limits will be self-imposed by the president alone,” he added. The Supreme Court on Monday issued its long-anticipated opinion on presidential immunity in which a 6-3 conservative majority ruled that presidents have absolute immunity for actions that fall within the core responsibilities of their office and are presumptively immune from all other official acts. The ruling delivered a win for Trump, who is using the defense in this federal election subversion case in which he is charged over his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss and for his actions leading up to Jan. 6. Biden, speaking from the White House in unexpected remarks upon returning from Camp David, used the opportunity to warn American voters about making their own judgements when they take to the polls in November. “The American people must decide if Trump’s embrace of violence to preserve his power is acceptable. Perhaps most importantly, the American people must decide if they want to entrust… the presidency to Donald Trump, now knowing he will be even more emboldened to do whatever he pleases whenever he wants to do it.” The remarks are Biden’s first from the White House since he debated Trump last week. He has been hit with criticism over his poor performance and calls for him to step down from the 2024 race. After his five-minutes remarks on Monday evening, he did not take questions, despite calls from allies like Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) for him to speak more often unscripted so he can ease concerns among Americans over his age. In his White House remarks, Biden harshly criticized the court and said he would respect presidential powers – though the immunity shield handed down from the high court applies to all future presidents, including Biden should he serve a second term. “It will depend on the character of the men and women who hold that presidency that are going to define the limits of the power of the presidency because the law will no longer do it,” Biden said. “I know I will respect the limits of the presidential powers as I have for three and a half years but any president, including Donald Trump, will now be free to ignore the law.” Biden closed his remarks by saying he agreed with Justice Sonia Sotomayer, one of the court’s three liberal justices, who wrote a scathing dissent in which she said the decision makes the president “a king above the law.”
Watergate scandal would have spared Nixon under new ruling, says Dean - John Dean, former White House counsel for the Nixon administration, said he believes former President Nixon “would have survived” the Watergate scandal if the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling issued Monday, which largely shields former presidents from criminal prosecution for actions in office, existed at the time. Asked what would’ve happened with Nixon if the immunity ruling was in place during the fallout from Watergate, Dean pointed to Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who split from the other conservative justices on a portion of the majority opinion regarding the use of president’s official acts as evidence in criminal prosecution against a former president. “Well, there’s actually two rulings in this decision. There’s a 6-3 for presumptive immunity, but there’s also a 5-4 on you can’t even have the evidence of official conduct come to play,” Dean said Monday. “This is very…this to me, appears to certainly influence the existing law on presidential conduct [and] what’s available…evidentiary speaking. Amy Coney Barrett said she didn’t think that it should be so restricted as the decision of the court itself was, so I think that Nixon would have survived. I think he would have walked under this ruling.” The Supreme Court handed down the 6-3 decision on Monday, ruling along ideological lines presidents have absolute immunity for actions that fall within the core responsibilities of their office and are “at least presumptively immune” for all other official acts.. Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, ruled a former president’s official acts are protected against being introduced as evidence in a criminal case against a former president. Barrett, in a concurring opinion, said she disagreed with this portion of ruling, writing, “I disagree with that holding; on this score, I agree with the dissent… The Constitution does not require blinding juries to the circumstances surrounding conduct for which Presidents can be held liable.” Nixon was mired in the Watergate controversy in 1972 that stemmed from a break-in at the offices of the Democratic National Committee, which were located in the Watergate building. The break-in was traced to officials working to reelect Nixon, some of whom later resigned and were convicted of offenses related to the cover-up. Nixon denied involvement, but a Supreme Court ruling forced him to hand over tape recordings which showed he attempted to avoid the investigation. He resigned in 1973 to avoid an inevitable impeachment by Congress. He was later pardoned by former President Ford for any crimes he may have committed in office. Dean said he is looking at the known evidence at the time of the scandal, but looking at the bills of impeachment, Nixon is “not responsible” and has “no criminal liability.” “And that was considered to be one of the elements of a high crime and misdemeanor if a president had committed a crime. Well there are no more crimes for presidents in official conduct,” he said.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez vows to file impeachment articles against Supreme Court justices --Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) announced Monday that she will soon file impeachment articles against at least one justice on the Supreme Court in the wake of their decision to grant partial immunity to former President Trump as he faces felony charges for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Ocasio-Cortez, a prominent liberal on the House Oversight Committee, said the ruling belies a central premise of America’s constitutional design — namely, that no one is above the law — and threatens to put the country on a path to tyranny. “Today’s ruling represents an assault on American democracy. It is up to Congress to defend our nation from this authoritarian capture,” she wrote on the social platform X. “I intend on filing articles of impeachment upon our return.”She did not specify which, or how many, of the justices she would target. Her office did not immediately respond to questions seeking clarification on Monday. The criticisms echo those coming from other Democrats and legal scholars following the Supreme Court’s ruling that Trump cannot be prosecuted for “official” actions he undertook as commander in chief. The decision arrived as Trump faces four felony charges related to his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, which he lost to President Biden, and his role in the rampage at the Capitol on Jan. 6, when a mob of Trump’s supporters stormed the building in a failed attempt to stop Congress from certifying Biden’s victory.“The Framers of the Constitution envisioned a democracy governed by the rule of law and the consent of the American people,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said. “They did not intend for our nation to be ruled by a king or monarch who could act with absolute impunity.”
Joe Morelle to introduce amendment to reverse Supreme Court immunity ruling --Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.I.) said Monday he will introduce a constitutional amendment to reverse the Supreme Court ruling issued Monday, which largely shields former presidents from criminal prosecution for actions in office.“I will introduce a constitutional amendment to reverse SCOTUS’ harmful decision and ensure that no president is above the law. This amendment will do what SCOTUS failed to do—prioritize our democracy,” Morelle wrote on the social platform X.The Supreme Court handed down the 6-3 decision on Monday, ruling along ideological lines presidents have absolute immunity for actions that fall within the core responsibilities of their office and are “at least presumptively immune” for all other official acts.The decision handed former President Trump a win in his federal election subversion case in Washington, D.C., first sending the case back to a lower court to decide whether his actions on Jan. 6 merit protection from criminal prosecution for decisions made while in the White House.When the Supreme Court hands down a ruling on a constitutional issue, the judgement is virtually final, and decisions can only be altered with a constitutional amendment and a new ruling.Morelle is among various Democrats who criticized the Supreme Court’s ruling. The Democrats have long argued that, under the Constitution, no one — not even the president — is above the law. By ruling that Trump is protected from prosecution for certain actions, the Supreme Court violated the intentions of the nation’s founders, the Democratic critics argued.The Democratic criticism reiterated the arguments from the three liberal justices who dissented from Monday’s decision. Justice Sonia Sotomayor, who wrote the dissent that the two other liberal justices joined, said, “In every use of official power, the President is now a king above the law.”
Jim Jordan calls on left to ‘uphold democratic norms’ after Trump immunity decision --House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) called on the ideological left to “uphold democratic norms” while hailing the Supreme Court decision regarding presidential immunity in the case involving former President Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election. “Hyper-partisan prosecutors like Jack Smith cannot weaponize the rule of law to go after the Administration’s chief political rival, and we hope that the Left will stop its attacks on President Trump and uphold democratic norms,” Jordan said in a statement Monday. “The Judiciary Committee will continue to oversee dangerous lawfare tactics in our judicial system.” The Supreme Court in a 6-3 decision on Monday ruled that presidents have “presumptive immunity” from prosecution for official acts, dealing a blow to special counsel Jack Smith’s prosecution of Trump. It sent the case back to the D.C. District Court, where proceedings had been paused to weigh Trump’s immunity claims. The ruling gives space, however, for areas of the prosecution to move forward, such as Trump’s pressure campaign on former Vice President Mike Pence leading up to Jan. 6. Chief Justice John Roberts directed the lower court to assess “whether a prosecution involving Trump’s alleged attempts to influence the Vice President’s oversight of the certification proceeding in his capacity as President of the Senate would pose any dangers of intrusion on the authority and functions of the Executive Branch.” Jordan also chairs the House Judiciary’s select subcommittee on government weaponization, a panel created in response to Republican concerns about government prosecutors and agencies — including those involved in Trump-related cases — improperly targeting political opponents. In contrast to Jordan’s statement, Democrats — who have long raised alarm about Trump breaking democratic norms regarding the peaceful transfer of power — worried that the decision would enable more breaking of democratic norms. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement that the decision marked “a sad day for America and a sad day for our democracy.” “The very basis of our judicial system is that no one is above the law. Treason or incitement of insurrection should not be considered a core constitutional power afforded to a president,” Schumer said.
Brother of fallen Capitol officer Sicknick slams Supreme Court immunity decision -The family of a police officer who died after responding to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riots warned that the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision this week should “frighten” Americans.The Supreme Court issued a landmark decision Monday that granted presidents broad legal protections, ruling that they have “absolute” immunity for “core” constitutional actions and “implied” immunity for official acts. The decision will have massive ramifications for special counsel Jack Smith’s election interference case against Donald Trump, in which the former president faces multiple criminal charges over his actions in the lead-up to Jan. 6.U.S. Capitol Police officer Brian Sicknick suffered two strokes and died a day after the riots, during which he was assaulted and sprayed with a chemical irritant. His death has beenconnected to the attack by the Washington, D.C., medical examiner.His brother, Craig Sicknick, argued in a letter reviewed by CBS News that the Supreme Court’s ruling could have negative implications for the whole country.“The recent decision by the [Supreme Court] was appalling and should frighten every citizen of the United States,” Sicknick wrote, adding that his family has “been through hell” due to the riots. “The courts of the United States are supposed to rule on punishment of people who broke the laws of our country, regardless of color, gender, wealth, political position, fame, and any other differences we may have as individuals,” he wrote. “We have learned once again that this concept is false with the very wealthy literally getting away with whatever they want.”Democrats have blasted the court’s decision as potentially allowing a president to break the law without consequence. In her dissent, Justice Sonia Sotomayor warned that the decision could embolden a corrupt executive to lash out against political opponents — even with violence — without being able to be held accountable. Sicknick warned in the letter that the decision could mark a point of no return for the country.“It is possible the damage that has been done to our nation by Trump may heal and we might move forward towards a better, stronger nation, but it is also very possible that this decision has doomed ‘The Great Experiment’ that was the United States of America,” he wrote.
Supreme Court decision on bribery sparks corruption concerns --Ethics and legal experts warn that the Supreme Court has struck a serious blow to prosecutors’ ability to crack down on the abuse of power and public corruption. And that’s ringing alarm bells when Donald Trump, who was convicted in May by a Manhattan jury on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records and who was hit with a $355 million penalty in a civil fraud trial in February, is leading in the presidential race. Experts say the Supreme Court’s decision last week in Snyder v. United States, which narrowed the scope of what can be considered an illegal gratuity to a government official, could make it tougher to prosecute federal officials for accepting bribes. It also may give ammo to embattled Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), who is on trial on bribery charges in New York. And experts warn that the 6-3 majority opinion in Trump v. United States, which gave the former president immunity for crimes connected to his official acts, will make it tougher to convict Trump on charges related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol and could embolden future presidents to skirt criminal laws. They say the court’s decision in Trump v. U.S. would make it nearly impossible to convict a future president for taking a bribe once he leaves office because it would limit the introduction of official presidential actions as evidence in a criminal trial. Even conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett who concurred with most of the majority opinion in Trump v. U.S., dissented in part, warning that “excluding from trial any mention of the official act connected to the bribe would hamstring the prosecution.” “It’s going to be harder to pursue public corruption charges against public officials,” Kedric Payne, vice president and general counsel at the government ethics watchdog group Campaign Legal Center, said about the Supreme Court’s decision in Snyder. “That’s just been a constant of many Supreme Court decisions over the past few decades,” he said. “Even though it looks like it applies to state[-level] prosecutions, the next shoe to drop is that the whole concept of gratuities may change,” he said of last week’s decision to allow state-level public officials to accept gifts. The decisions ratchet up tensions between the Supreme Court and Democrats in Congress, who say the court is “out of control.” And the rulings open the court’s conservative justices to more criticism that they have a lax view of governmental and judicial ethics. “There is this very worrying cynicism and belief that in order for public officials to do their jobs they somehow need to be above the law. Of course, the court does not say that … but what it is doing is in a very real sense crippling one of the most meaningful checks on abuse of power,” Dan Weiner, the director of elections and government at the Brennan Center for Justice, said about the decisions on presidential immunity and gratuities to government officials. “I think everyone has always assumed that if the president were to take bribes for official action, he or she could be prosecuted, but … the logic of this case would cripple any effort to hold the president accountable for holding bribes,” he said of Chief Justice John Roberts’s decision in the Trump immunity case. “One thing this decision does is it further hollows out protections against high-level government corruption, and that is deeply troubling given the norms that have collapsed around self-dealing at the highest levels in recent years,” he said. Weiner said the justices’ decision in the Trump immunity case and the second case, Snyder v. United States, threaten to “hollow out core safeguards against corruption against the highest levels of government and some of the lowest levels of government.”
Conservative Heritage leader: ‘Second American Revolution’ will be bloodless ‘if the left allows it to be’ --The leader of conservative think tank The Heritage Foundation argued the Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity will reinforce a “second American Revolution,” which he said would “remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts told Steve Bannon’s “War Room” podcast how the Supreme Court ruling on immunity — which largely shields former presidents from criminal prosecutions for actions in office — should encourage conservatives.“In spite of all this nonsense from the left, we are going to win. We’re in the process of taking this country back. No one in the audience should be despairing,” Roberts said, adding, “And in spite of all of the injustice, which, of course, friends and audience of this show, of our friend Steve know, we are going to prevail.”“We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be,” he added later.Calling the Supreme Court ruling “vital,” Roberts pointed to Alexander Hamilton’s 1877 essayFederalist No. 70, in which he argued for a strong executive leader.“You know, former congressman, the importance of Congress doing its job, but we also know the importance of the executive being able to do his job,” Roberts told former Rep. Dave Brat(R-Va.), who hosted the podcast episode, with Bannon having reported to prison this week. “And can you imagine, Dave Brat, any president — put politics off to the side — any president having to second-guess, triple-guess every decision they’re making in their official capacity, you couldn’t have the republic that you just described.”Robert’s Heritage Foundation is the moving force behind Project 2025, a conservative blueprint for a possible Trump reelection in November. The nearly 1,000-page handbook is aimed at advancing right-wing policies and expanding the powers of the presidency.Authors describe Project 2025 as a guide of what the next president needs to do to undo the “damage” to America they argue is caused by liberal politicians. Critics of Project 2025 call it authoritarian and “un-American.”Roberts later expanded upon his argument, stating the “second American Revolution” is to take “power back from the elites and despotic bureaucrats.” “These patriots are committed to peaceful revolution at the ballot box. Unfortunately, it’s the Left that has a long history of violence, so it’s up to them to allow a peaceful transfer of power,” Roberts wrote in a statement to The Hill, pointing to alleged weaponization of government agencies and what he described as “violent riots” in 2020.The Supreme Court handed down the 6-3 decision Monday, ruling along ideological lines that presidents have absolute immunity for actions that fall within the core responsibilities of the office and are “at least presumptively immune” for all other official acts.
Trump seeks to set aside hush money verdict: source - Former President Trump on Monday asked his hush money judge to set aside the recent guilty verdict after the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Supreme Court provided former presidents with a broad shield against criminal prosecution, ruling 6-3 along ideological lines that they enjoy absolute criminal immunity for core constitutional powers and a presumption of immunity for all other official acts. Following the ruling, Trump’s lawyers on Monday filed a letter with New York Judge Juan Merchan seeking to set aside the jury’s recent guilty verdict, contending the prosecution at trial introduced evidence that is protected under the Supreme Court’s new test, the person said. The letter also asks to delay Trump’s July 11 sentencing, according to the person.The development was first reported by The New York Times.Trump has argued he is immune from charges in his three remaining criminal cases that have not yet gone to trial — a battle set to play out in the lower courts in the coming weeks as trial judges apply the Supreme Court’s immunity standard.Just before he went to trial in his hush money case, Trump had mounted a last-minute immunity defense as part of efforts to seek delays, claiming some of prosecutors’ expected trial evidence, like tweets during his presidency, was protected.Merchan had rejected Trump’s presidential immunity defense as untimely, enabling the case to reach a jury, which ultimately delivered the first criminal conviction of a former U.S. president.“The Court declines to consider whether the doctrine of presidential immunity precludes the introduction of evidence of purported official presidential acts in a criminal proceeding,” Merchan said at the time.Trump was convicted on 34 counts for lying in New York business records with the intent to unlawfully influence the 2016 presidential election when he reimbursed his then-fixer, Michael Cohen, for a hush money payment to a porn star who was claiming an affair with Trump. Trump denies the affair.The Hill has reached out to a spokesperson for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) and Trump’s attorney for comment.The Supreme Court’s majority opinion on Monday specified that immunized acts cannot be used as evidence to prosecute unofficial conduct.“If official conduct for which the President is immune may be scrutinized to help secure his conviction, even on charges that purport to be based only on his unofficial conduct, the ‘intended effect’ of immunity would be defeated,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for the court.That argument was joined by four of his fellow conservatives. But Justice Amy Coney Barrett, Trump’s final appointee to the high court who otherwise joined the majority, disagreed, writing that she agreed with the three liberal dissenters on that point.“The Constitution does not require blinding juries to the circumstances surrounding conduct for which Presidents can be held liable,” Barrett wrote.
Donald Trump hush money sentencing delayed until September - Former President Trump’s criminal sentencing is delayed until Sep. 18 as he attempts to set aside his recent guilty verdict in the wake of the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision, a New York judge ruled Tuesday.Judge Juan Merchan’s ruling means Trump will not be sentenced before the Republican National Convention, though he is now poised to be sentenced in the heat of the general election race. It also comes about a week after the next presidential debate on Sept. 10.Though Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) office believes the 34-count conviction should stand, he agreed to adjourn the scheduled July 11 sentencing hearing so Trump can first attempt to mount his presidential immunity defense. The former president has not argued he is immune from his charges of falsifying business records, but he asserts the jury’s verdict must still be tossed because some of the trial evidence was precluded under the Supreme Court’s new test. Trump’s attorneys have until July 10 to file their motion to set aside the verdict, and prosecutors with the district attorney’s office must reply by July 24. Merchan is expected to ultimately rule on whether to set aside the verdict on Sept. 6. Trump’s Sept. 18 sentencing will take place “if such is still necessary,” the judge said. A jury of 12 New Yorkers deliberated for roughly 11 hours before making Trump the first former U.S. president convicted of a crime. Trump was found guilty of falsifying New York business records with an intent to unlawfully influence the 2016 election when he disguised reimbursements to his then-fixer, Michael Cohen. Cohen paid a porn star $130,000 to stay quiet about her alleged affair with Trump in the lead-up to his election. Trump denies any affair. The former president’s other three criminal cases also stand to be affected by the high court’s ruling on immunity, none more so than his federal election subversion case from which the challenge stemmed.
Cannon grants Trump’s request to further delay classified docs case -The federal judge overseeing former President Trump’s classified documents case granted his request to delay a few deadlines further so prosecutors can evaluate the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling.Trump’s lawyers on Friday asked Judge Aileen Cannon for permission to file more documents to argue that the former president should be immune from prosecution in the case.In their motion this week, Trump’s team proposed a schedule that extends through early September, meaning a ruling wouldn’t come until at least the fall.On Saturday, Cannon, a Trump appointee, said prosecutors and special counsel Jack Smith had until July 18 to respond to the Trump argument requesting for a delay, The New York Timesreported.Cannon also postponed two deadlines in the case, which is only expected to cause a minor delay.The former president has pleaded not guilty in the case.Trump’s lawyers say the recent Supreme Court decision that grants presidents protections for official acts should apply to the case, in which he is accused of mishandling classified records and attempting to obstruct the government from retrieving them after he was out of office.The former president’s team asked Cannon to halt the case except for the pending request for a gag order. His lawyers also noted Justice Clarence Thomas’s concurring opinion in the Supreme Court decision, where he questioned special counsel Jack Smith’s motivations and authority.Smith argued that fallout from the Supreme Court decision doesn’t apply to the documents case because he has not charged Trump over any official acts. The prosecution said the documents were taken and he tried to obstruct the FBI from obtaining them at his Mar-a-Lago residence after he was already out of power.The 6-3 ruling along ideological lines dismantles some of Smith’s indictment of Trump but prosecutors largely have dismissed the idea that the case should be thrown out entirely. There is no trial date set in the case. Cannon was criticized after she suspended the start date of the trial indefinitely after saying she needed more time to examine pretrial motions filed by Trump’s team asking her to toss the case.
Hunter Biden sues Fox News over miniseries - Hunter Biden has sued Fox News over a program it published and then took down from its subscriber streaming service Fox Nation. In a lawsuit filed Monday in the Supreme Court of New York, Biden’s attorneys allege Fox targeted the president’s son “in an effort to harass, annoy, alarm, and humiliate him, and tarnish his reputation.” “Far from reporting on a newsworthy event, Fox sought to commercialize Mr. Biden’s personality through a form of treatment distinct from the dissemination of news or information,” the lawsuit reads. “While using certain true information, the series intentionally manipulates the facts, distorts the truth, narrates happenings out of context, and invents dialogue intended to entertain.” The lawsuit further alleges that the miniseries “unlawfully publishes numerous intimate images (both still and video) of Mr. Biden depicting him in the nude, depicting an unclothed or exposed intimate part of him, as well as engaged in sex acts.” Biden’s attorneys first threatened to sue the conservative media behemoth over the program in April, at which point the outlet unpublished the docuseries from the streaming service. “This program was produced in and has been available since 2022,” the network said at the time. “We are reviewing the concerns that have just been raised and — out of an abundance of caution in the interim — have taken it down.” In a statement to The Hill on Monday, Fox said, “this entirely politically motivated lawsuit is devoid of merit.” “The core complaint stems from a 2022 streaming program that Mr. Biden did not complain about until sending a letter in late April 2024. The program was removed within days of the letter, in an abundance of caution, but Hunter Biden is a public figure who has been the subject of multiple investigations and is now a convicted felon,” the network said. “Consistent with the First Amendment, FOX News has accurately covered the newsworthy events of Mr. Biden’s own making, and we look forward to vindicating our rights in court.”
FSMA Reports 44% Rise in Fraud Complaints with Half Linked to Crypto Scams -- The Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA) has released its dashboard for the first semester of 2024. The dashboard provides statistics and an overview of the main trends regarding investment fraud.The latest edition of the dashboard highlights several key points. Fraudulent trading platforms and cryptocurrency scams still represent about half of the reports about unlawful activities received by the FSMA."Recovery room" fraud, a type of scam where victims of previous frauds are contacted and promised help in recovering their losses for a fee, is on the rise. There has been a 59% increase in this type of fraud compared to the same period in 2023.Earlier, FSMA warned of risks posed by prop trading firms, targeting consumers with promises of risk-free trading opportunities but leading to financial traps, as reported by Finance Magnates.These firms allow trading in various products without requiring personal capital, yet exploit consumers through costly, mandatory courses. Many participants end up paying for multiple courses without accessing real trading, highlighting concerns over transparency and consumer protection in the industry.The FSMA has noticed a significant increase in the number of consumer reports in the first half of 2024. In the first six months of 2024, the FSMA received 1,332 consumer reports about unlawful activities. In 2023, the FSMA received a total of 925 reports in the first half of the year. This represents an increase of 44%.Of these reports, 52.3% were complaints from consumers who had lost money because of investment fraud or false offers of credit. The remaining reports were questions from consumers who asked the FSMA for information about unlawful activities or suspicious market participants, but who had not yet paid any funds.
Crypto scammers stole nearly $60m from 20 victims in H1 2024, data shows --The first half of 2024 was yet another profitable period for phishing scammers as they stole $314 million worth of crypto, marking a 6.44% increase compared to 2023, according to data gathered by blockchain research firm Scam Sniffer. In an X thread, the firm detailed that out of the sum, around $58 million worth of crypto was drained from 20 victims alone, with one victim losing $11 million, becoming the second-largest theft victim in crypto history. Scam Sniffer says scammers typically target victims by exploiting phishing signatures such as Permit, IncreaseAllowance, and Uniswap Permit2, which allow them to gain control over the victim’s assets without further permissions. Victims are often lured through phishing comments from impersonated accounts on X. Once on the phishing site, they are tricked into making seemingly legitimate transactions from their non-custodial wallets, resulting in unauthorized fund access.Earlier in July, Scam Sniffer’s parent company SlowMist reported freezing approximately $20.66 million in stolen funds across 13 platforms in Q2, highlighting private key leakage, phishing, and fraud as major vulnerabilities in the industry. In the meantime, a new threat seems to be emerging in the crypto space as Bitget’s latest report reveals that deepfake-related crypto fraud has led to losses exceeding $79.1 billion since 2022, with a staggering 245% increase in 2024 alone. Despite international efforts to combat this issue, quarterly losses from deepfake use could reach “around $10 billion by 2025,” the exchange warns. Bitget also predicts that 2024 will likely conclude with $25.13 billion in losses from such crimes.
Fictitious law firms targeting cryptocurrency scam victims offering to recover funds - Maui News – The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is issuing an announcement to inform the public of an emerging criminal tactic used to further defraud cryptocurrency scam victims. Using social media or other messaging platforms, fraudsters posing as lawyers representing fictitious law firms may contact scam victims and offer their services, claiming to have the authorization to investigate fund recovery cases. To validate the contact, the “lawyers” claim they are working with, or have received information on, the scam victim’s case from the FBI, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), or other government agency. In some instances, scam victims have contacted fraudsters on fake websites, which appear legitimate, hoping to recover their funds. To further the recovery scam, the “lawyers” may: ¯ Request victims verify their identities by providing personal identifying information or banking information to get their money back; ¯ Request victims provide a judgment amount they are seeking from the initial fraudster; ¯ Request victims pay a portion of initial fees up front with balance due when funds are recovered; ¯ Direct victims to make payments for back taxes and other fees to recover their funds; or ¯ Reference actual financial institutions and money exchanges, to build credibility and further their schemes. Between February 2023 and February 2024, cryptocurrency scam victims who were further exploited by fictitious law firms reported losses totaling over $9.9 million, according to the FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3).
Bitcoin scam uses Deschutes Co. Sheriff's phone number to fool victims — The Deschutes County Sheriff's Office issued a new scam alert after receiving multiple reports of fraudulent calls targeting residents in the area. Some of them fell victim to the scam, which has spoofed the main phone number for the sheriff's office. According to authorities, individuals have reported receiving calls from scammers claiming that money is owed for failing to respond to a subpoena. The scammers are demanding payment in the form of Bitcoin and employing various intimidation tactics to coerce their victims. They keep their victims on the phone until the payment is made.The sheriff's office reminds people that law enforcement agencies will never contact them to ask for money to clear up any legal matter. It also says people should be skeptical when anyone they don't know asks for money over the phone.Residents are advised to remain vigilant and report any suspicious calls to the Deschutes County non-emergency dispatch immediately at 541-693-6911. Also, talk to neighbors and loved ones to be sure they are aware of scams like this one.
Exclusive: Brown urges Synapse partners to restore consumer funds | American Banker— Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, is pressing the banks, fintechs and investors associated with Synapse to make whole customers who have money locked up in the fintech middleman's bankruptcy. Millions of dollars are frozen in the bankruptcy of Synapse, which linked fintech firms like Yotta and Juno to banks like Evolve. Many of those funds are held by ordinary consumers, rather than investors or businesses, and in many cases involve large sums of money that represent consumers' life savings or emergency fund accounts. The bankruptcy case, which is ongoing, has uncovered that Synapse's ledgers include significant shortfalls between what consumers are owned and the funds held on their behalf by Synapse's partner banks. This makes unfreezing customer funds and restoring access to those accounts complicated, and likely will take a long time. Brown, along with Democratic Sens. Ron Wyden of Oregon, John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, told the major players in the Synapse debacle in a letter to pool together funds to immediately make all customer deposits frozen in the bankruptcy available. "These developments are both deeply troubling and completely unacceptable," the lawmakers said in the letter. "In due time we will find out who is ultimately responsible for this mess, but in the interim, the priority must be to restore consumers' access to all of their money." The lawmakers sent the letter to Synapse's investors — including Adreesen Horowitz, Trinity Ventures and Core Innovation Capital — and the banks connected to the fintech middleman, including Evolve, American Bank, Trust and Lineage Bank and AMG National Trust. Former Synapse CEO Sankaet Pathak, along with the fintech apps partnered with Synapse including Copper, Juno, Mercury, Yieldstreet and Yotta also received the letter from the lawmakers. Ironing out which entity owes consumers what money is likely to take time in bankruptcy court, given the shortfalls and complicated business ledgers that came along with the business model that Synapse followed. In the meantime, customers who have money frozen in the case have found themselves navigating Washington's gauntlet of banking agencies trying to figure out what recourse they have to retrieve their funds — a process that in the event of a bank failure, is typically not a problem because of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s resolution process. "The Synapse bankruptcy has exposed the inherent weaknesses of this tri-party business model and caused hardworking Americans and small businesses to be deprived access to their own money," the lawmakers said in the letter. The fintech apps that used Synapse to partner with banks often presented the deposits consumers placed in their apps as FDIC insured, a claim that applies only if the bank in question fails — not if the fintech or any of the companies it uses to bridge between the bank and the customer-facing app fail. "Each of you is responsible for the customers who have been frozen out of their accounts," the lawmakers said. "Consumer-facing fintech firms marketed their products to the public as safe, reliable alternatives to banks. Because of those promises, consumers adopted their products and made deposits through their apps and websites." The firms that funded Synapse, which include some of the largest venture capital firms in the crypto and fintech space, are also to blame, the lawmakers said. "Venture capital firms funded Synapse without insisting on adequate controls to protect consumers," they said. "They stood to profit while Synapse billed itself as a trustworthy financial infrastructure provider. But they failed to make sure that Synapse could follow through on its commitments." And the banks "made it possible for Synapse to market services ultimately provided by the banks," according to the letter.
Top executives at collapsed crypto bank Silvergate hit with SEC charges -- The Securities and Exchange Commission announced settlements Monday with the former CEO and chief risk officer of the now-defunct Silvergate Capital Corp., while also filing civil charges against the crypto-friendly bank's onetime chief financial officer.Former CEO Alan J. Lane and former Chief Risk Officer Kathleen Fraher settled allegations that they misled investors about the strength of the bank's anti-money laundering compliance program and its monitoring of crypto customers. Those customers included FTX, the crypto exchange whose spectacular collapse led to Silvergate's own demise five months later. The SEC accused Antonio Martino, Silvergate's onetime CFO, of misleading investors about losses incurred by the La Jolla, California-based bank following the November 2022 collapse of FTX. Martino denied the allegations and vowed to defend himself in court. The SEC's actions on Monday were part of a coordinated series of moves by federal and state regulators. At the same time, the Federal Reserve Board and the California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation announced $63 million in penalties against Silvergate for deficiencies in internal monitoring. The SEC said that Silvergate did not conduct appropriate monitoring in 2021 and 2022 of its main product, known as the Silvergate Exchange Network, the key mechanism for the bank's crypto asset customers to transfer funds amongst themselves. The bank's system failed to monitor roughly $1 trillion in suspicious banking transactions related to its crypto currency exchange, according to the SEC."The Bank also failed to detect nearly $9 billion in suspicious transfers by FTX and its related entities," the SEC said in a complaint filed Monday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York. Lane and Fraher misrepresented the operational and legal risks facing Silvergate Bank by falsely stating in SEC filings and other public statements that the bank had an effective Bank Secrecy Act/anti-money laundering compliance program tailored to the heightened risks posed by its crypto asset customers, the SEC said. Lane and Fraher settled with the SEC without admitting to or denying the agency's allegations. Lane agreed to pay a $1 million civil penalty, while Fraher agreed to pay a $250,000 civil penalty, according to the SEC. Both former Silvergate executives also agreed to permanent injunctions and five-year officer-and-director bars, SEC said in a press release.Haima Marlier, a lawyer at Morrison and Foerster who represents Fraher, declined to comment. A lawyer for Lane did not immediately return a call seeking comment.After the failure of FTX caused panic in the crypto industry — leading to a run on Silvergate and a severe liquidity crisis — the SEC said that Martino engaged in a fraudulent scheme to mislead investors and regulators about the bank's financial condition. In need of cash, the bank had sold a large chunk of its bond portfolio in the fourth quarter of 2022. But the value of its bond investments sunk when interest rates rose, so Silvergate was forced to take a hit on the sale.The lawsuit alleges that Martino and other bank leaders knew it would have to dump more of its bonds at a loss — thus eroding its capital cushion further. By understating the amount of bonds it needed to get rid of, the bank was able to mask the financial hit it would soon be forced to take, prosecutors said.Martino "knew or recklessly disregarded that the bank was more likely than not to be required to sell far more" in securities than it had told investors, prosecutors said. Rather than $200 million in additional securities sales that the Martino had "falsely implied" were needed, the bank ended up selling some $1 billion, the lawsuit said.Adam Lurie, a lawyer representing Martino, said that his client denies the allegations."Mr. Martino acted reasonably and in good faith throughout his time at Silvergate," said Lurie, a partner at the law firm Linklaters. "He denies any wrongdoing and intends to challenge the SEC's claims in court. The SEC is inappropriately seeking, with the benefit of hindsight, to substitute its business judgment with decisions that Mr. Martino — a career finance professional — made in real time." Silvergate announced on March 8, 2023, that it would liquidate and cease operations. The bank faced a potential enforcement action by bank regulators, high costs to remediate its BSA/AML program and an auditor's demand that the bank correct its financial statements concerning losses from expected securities sales, the SEC said.
'Anti-woke' bank hit with FDIC consent order as losses mount --A small bank that touts patriotism and its "anti-woke" services was hit by a federal regulator with a consent order after posting losses during its first year of operation.The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. announced Friday that it entered the enforcement action with Old Glory Bank on May 1, calling for the Oklahoma bank to increase its capital, update its business strategy projections and implement technology audit policies. Mike Ring, the bank's president and CEO, said on Monday that Old Glory is in "a very good spot" on making progress to address the regulator's concerns.Old Glory launched last year, after Ring and a group of investors bought a small community bank in Elmore City, Oklahoma, with the hope of creating a niche offering for folks who believe that banks are shutting out consumers based on their political beliefs. The company pitched itself as ardently "pro-America," vowing to stand against alleged intrusions from the government into consumers' financial information."If a government official requests that we punish or cancel you for lawfully attending a protest, we will not comply," Old Glory's website says in a frequently asked questions section."If there is a request to punish or cancel you for conducting lawful business, that request will be unlawful, and we will not comply. If other banks (and tech companies) want to stand with their elite friends in government and media to punish and cancel Americans for fossil fuels, the meat industry, firearms, or speaking truth to power, that's on them."The bank initially expected the majority of its revenue to come from interchange fees as users swiped their debit cards — a strategy less common for traditional banks and more in line with the business plans of some fintech firms.Bank consultant Bert Ely said the company's business model isn't very "bank-like," nor is it viable for the long term, especially as Old Glory sheds money. The company posted a loss of $2.9 million in the first quarter of this year, per public documents.Aaron Klein, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said that while some banks have been adept at growing a large base of heavy debit-card users to generate interchange revenue, that vision doesn't seem to have panned out at Old Glory."As a result, the bank struggled," Klein said. "This is a pretty sweeping consent order that indicates the bank is in some material level of distress."Ring took issue with the word "sweeping," arguing that the FDIC order boils down to two main challenges: raising the bank's common equity tier 1 capital ratio to 14%, and laying out tested policies and procedures.He said that on the latter issue, the $123 million-asset bank's work is mostly done, but that Old Glory still has "a ways to go" on raising capital. The bank had a CET1 ratio of 9.2% as of March 31, according to public filings. Old Glory has added more than $100 million of deposits in its 14 months of operations, but it has only $10 million of loans. Ring said the bank needs to bring in more money to keep up with its deposit and account growth. Old Glory has a fundraising plan to open up opportunities for more investors, according to Ring, who declined to provide details.
Climate-friendly bank gets dinged by FDIC over its funding model --A climate-friendly bank led by a onetime Democratic presidential candidate says it has overhauled its funding structure after being dinged by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. in a consent order.Forbright Bank, whose executive chairman is former Maryland congressman and 2020 presidential candidate John Delaney, has grown rapidly since a 2021 rebranding that focused on financing the transition to clean energy sources.But the Maryland-based bank funded that fast growth through the use of deposits that regulators have long viewed as less reliable than funds that provide a more direct connection to the customer.In a consent order made public last week, the FDIC cited Forbright's "reliance on noncore funding" as a risk. The bank said in a statement Tuesday that it has made significant progress in addressing the agency's concerns, particularly through a digital bank it launched in 2023 to gather deposits directly from consumers."We take this matter seriously and have already completed multiple workstreams to address the issues identified," the bank said. "This includes enhancing our risk management policies and procedures and launching successful direct-to-consumer savings accounts that are replacing brokered sweep deposits."Forbright had less than $2 billion of assets at the start of 2021, shortly before getting an additional capital investment and its rebrand from Congressional Bank. Soon after, it vaulted past the $6 billion-asset mark.The bank funded its much larger loan volumes with brokered deposits. That source of funding issometimes known as "hot money" because it moves in search of higher interest rate yields, making it less "sticky" than traditional retail deposits.Some observers have argued that regulators' skepticism of brokered funds is misplaced. They note that some brokered funds were far more stable than the traditional deposits at banks that collapsed last year.In late 2022, more than 60% of Forbright Bank's deposits were listed as "brokered," which represented a peak, according to regulatory data.That metric has quickly fallen to more normal levels around 20%, thanks to Forbright's digital bank, which is offering certificates of deposit and high-yield savings accounts directly to consumers.Forbright offers annual rates of up to 5.3% on its CDs and savings accounts, according to thebank-comparison website Bankrate.com, which says that the rates it pays on savings accounts are well above average for U.S. banks. Last month, Forbright launched a new savings account that qualifies customers for passes at national parks.
How JPMorgan Chase is fraud-proofing its branches - The head of identity for consumer and community banking at JPMorgan Chase said last week that the bank is bringing more technology into its branches to ward off fraud and make life easier for tellers tasked with identifying it. JPMorgan Chase is moving robust identity checks to the start of interactions inside branches by having each customer prove their identity at kiosks that ask for their account password or identification documents, rather than having a teller check the customer's driver's license by hand. That's according to Stefan Schubert, the bank's head of identity for consumer and community banking, who spoke last week at a roundtable at American Banker's Digital Banking conference in Boca Raton, Florida. The change is part of the bank's overall strategy of expanding its branch network, which it has done faster than any other large national bank in recent years, and renovating roughly 1,700 branches to establish a new customer experience.. The bank has invested in the branch network, Schubert said, because branches act as marketplaces for the various services JPMorgan Chase offers — auto loans, mortgages, business accounts and others — and it's seen direct benefits across lines of business connected to the expanding branch network. "By having a branch anchored in a community, we're able to bolster all those services for ourselves, but there's also a much higher customer experience benefit of both being able to visit a branch and just know that there's one nearby," Schubert said. But, in recent years, branches have become increasingly popular targets for fraudsters through a variety of means. For example, a trend that took hold among fraud rings last year was recruiting check walkers.In these schemes, fraudsters hoping to cash out on a fraudulent check need to find someone who matches the description of the payee on a fraudulent check. The payee might be a synthetic identity or a stolen one. Once the fraudster finds a recruit who can pass as the payee, they arm the recruit with the fraudulent check and, in some cases, a fraudulent form of identity. The recruit then walks into the branch to deposit or cash the check, and if they succeed, the fraudster shares some of the loot with them. Check walking exploits the fallibility of tellers who are tasked with identifying whether the person on the other side of the counter is the actual payee and whether the check they are handing over is legitimate. Rather than relying on an automated process to vet the check, banks often rely on tellers to identify suspicious behavior. JPMorgan Chase is hoping to change that by ensuring fraudsters don't pick on tellers as a weak link in the fraud prevention process. Instead, any fraudster hoping to walk into a branch and commit fraud will be faced with the same automated protections that exist online and in the bank's mobile app — the automated protections that the fraudster was hoping to avoid. The main way JPMorgan Chase is doing this today is by installing kiosks inside branches where customers authenticate before visiting with an associate. In the branches where JPMorgan Chase has placed the kiosks so far, the units resemble ATMs but are designed specifically to verify the identity of the customer. Customers entering JPMorgan Chase branches equipped with this identity verification technology are asked to authenticate at the kiosk first before receiving services from a teller. As the bank renovates branches, it plans to add similar identity verification technology. Prior to the wave of digital transformation at banks, fraud prevention relied on the gut instincts of tellers. That's according to Kerry Cantley, who joined identity and fraud prevention firm Mitek last year after a 26-year career with Bank of America. Mitek sponsored the roundtable discussion on raising trust and convenience inside branches using digital identity technology.
Elizabeth Warren accuses Powell of giving big bank CEOs too much influence --Senator Elizabeth Warren says Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is giving bank chief executive officers too much opportunity to influence key policies, including executive-compensation and bank-capital proposals. In a letter sent Tuesday to Powell, Warren criticized him for having multiple private meetings and talks with top executives — including 19 with JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon since February 2018. Warren wrote that these meetings and conversations between Powell and the executives "appear to be shaping Fed policy" and that the regulator is now "floating a gutted proposal," referring to the bank-capital plan. The Massachusetts Democrat asked Powell a series of questions, including whether he had made any commitments to Dimon or other big-bank executives related to the capital overhaul, which is tied to Basel III, an international agreement that followed the 2008 financial crisis. Warren also requested information on any discussions about bank-merger guidelines and executive-pay reform. She asked for a list of the topics covered in all of Powell's meetings with Dimon. "We have received the letter and plan to respond," the central bank said in a statement Tuesday.In May, the Wall Street Journal reported that Dimon had pushed his peers to avoid Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, seen as the architect of the bank-capital plan, and instead lobby Powell and other Fed governors about changing the proposal. Shortly after, Warren sent a separate letter accusing Powell of "doing Mr. Dimon's bidding."Warren is a member of the Senate Banking Committee where Powell is set to testify next week. In March, the central bank chief told lawmakers that he expected "broad and material changes" to the proposal that American regulators released last July. That original plan could have forced the US's eight largest banks to set aside about 19% more in capital.
BankThink: Banking law is about to get weird | American Banker - Last Friday the Supreme Court did the expected and tossed out a long-standing cornerstone of administrative law known as the Chevron doctrine, and in doing so charted a new course for the way regulators regulate and litigants litigate. Chevron (decided almost exactly 40 years ago, on June 25, 1984) held that in cases where the language of a statute is ambiguous and an agency's interpretation of that statute is reasonable, courts will defer to the agency's interpretation. But under Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo — the case that overturned Chevron — a judge may substitute the executive agency's interpretation of the law with their own. The immediate implications of the Loper Bright ruling may be somewhat limited, however. Ongoing legal challenges to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's final rules on small-business data collection and late fees, for example, just got better odds of being successful. But it's not like the CFPB and its regulations enjoyed a great deal of deference in the courts already — as Jaret Seiberg of TD Cowen put it succinctly in an analyst note, "Financial and housing regulators have effectively been acting without the benefit of Chevron for years, as the 5th Circuit has been willing to repeatedly overrule how agencies interpret their authority." Banks have been waiting for this day for a long time, but have been constrained by either the fear of suing their regulators and losing and/or the negative optics of fighting regulation when the public still doesn't trust the banking industry as a whole. Banks and their trade associations have become increasingly willing to sue regulators over rules they think are unfair or poorly written, including the recently finalized Community Reinvestment Act implementation rules, the aforementioned CFPB cases and the expected litigation over the Basel III endgame capital proposal.It isn't that hard to appreciate why banks are interested in rolling back the power of the administrative state. Yes, there is the cynical view that banks want to make money and regulations represent costs that banks would rather not pay. But I think there is also a more principled objection at play, where bankers feel subjected to invasive supervisory and regulatory constraints that they are unable to oppose. It's about power, and on some level the idea of having regulators taken down a peg is enticing because they don't like being pushed around.But there are longer-term implications for Loper Bright that I'm not sure the banking industry has fully considered, and that is that once the dismantling of the administrative state starts, it's hard to know exactly where it will end and why. As it is, the processes and legal foundations of the banking regulatory apparatus are governed more by tradition and understanding than by binding legal precedent. That is because banks traditionally haven't sued their regulators very often, meaning there have been few opportunities for courts to weigh in on whether this or that power wielded by this or that regulator exceeds what is granted by statute or violates rights guaranteed by the constitution. Regulators are still hemmed in, but often by softer forces of political pressure, reputational concerns and occasionally legislation.There is no doubt that regulators have expanded their powers in the last 20 years, most notably the Fed and the CFPB, and that has upset the balance and made some kind of pushback from the industry inevitable. But those powers have not been expanded for no reason — we did have a financial crisis not so long ago that exposed deep and critical weaknesses in the way that banks are regulated and supervised, necessitating new legislation and a more active role for regulators. So while banks are optimistic about their ability to stop the CFPB from issuing its small-business rule or expanding the CRA to apply to mobile deposits, I wonder if they will be as enthusiastic about a constitutional challenge to the Federal Reserve's independent control of monetary policy or the legal barrier between banking and commerce or a lawsuit challenging the end of the gold standard. One might say those kinds of unfavorable outcomes are unlikely and that the Supreme Court would never entertain far-out fringe theories. But the overturning of long-standing precedentsdoes not seem to bother this court — and depending on who wins the election, it may not bother the next one, either.More to the point, defanged regulators are not very good at stopping problems before they start — and in the financial regulatory space, problems can get very messy very fast. Banks enjoyed a fairly hands-off regulatory environment from the mid-1990s until about 2010, and what came after that was a hard pendulum swing the other way.I don't know for a fact that the demise of Chevron will lead to some kind of banking catastrophe, say, a decade down the road. What I can say is the overturning of Chevron will likely serve as a demarcation point in the history of banking administrative law, and nobody knows for sure what is going to come next — or whether it works better than what we have now.
Supreme Court rulings will change the regulatory landscape — to a degree — The Supreme Court's opinion overturning so-called Chevron deference last week will empower judges to decide whether an agency's interpretation of the law is valid, but while the decision overturned historic legal precedent, banking experts say the impact on prudential bank regulation is likely to be limited.Part of that is because the decision — which combined two similar cases, Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and Relentless Inc. v. Raimondo — made a point of not invalidating prior rulings made based on Chevron deference because of that deference alone, said Karen Solomon, senior of counsel at Covington & Burling and former official with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency."Loper Bright expressly does not overrule prior cases decided under the Chevron framework," Solomon said. "The immediate effect of the Loper Bright and Relentless rulings on prudential banking regulation therefore is likely to be limited because the decisions do not disturb existing case law that relies on Chevron." Lower courts are now expected to perform their own statutory interpretation to review the work of agencies. However, Solomon says the Supreme Court has still allowed for some reliance on agencies' judgment by preserving the use of Skidmore deference — which allows courts to weigh agency interpretations without those interpretations being binding."If the agency supports its regulation by carefully explaining the facts that led it to regulate in a particular way, the court could accept that explanation as a reason to uphold the agency's regulation," she said. "[However,] the court doesn't have to do that — it could find that the statute requires something more or different than the agency has put forward and overturn the agency's regulation on that basis."That doesn't mean there won't be ripple effects. Solomon says one impact will be that banks will feel they have more leeway to challenge agency rules and regulators will need to put more thought into their regulations in anticipation of such challenges. That could mean already lengthy regulatory timetables required by the Administrative Procedure Act could get even longer. "The agencies will need to prepare detailed, carefully reasoned records of their decision making so that their conclusions will be persuasive under the Skidmore standard," she said. "Interagency negotiations could be even more protracted than they are now, and individual agencies may add layers of internal review to their decision making in an effort to protect against reversal of their decisions in court."Ian Katz, managing director of Capital Alpha Partners, says the end of Chevron is more likely to shape future rules than undo existing ones, because it leaves cases already settled under Chevron intact. And while he argues courts will likely err on the side of agency expertise to an extent, the banking industry will likely feel more emboldened to challenge regulatory interpretations they balk at. "Regulated companies, knowing they have the judicial winds at their back post-Chevron, will have a bargaining chip when discussing potential regulations with agencies," he said. "We wouldn't expect them to drop planned proposals altogether, but those proposals probably won't be as assertive as they would have been previously."Adam Rust, director of financial services at the Consumer Federation of America, says another case decided Monday could be equally as consequential. In Corner Post Inc. v. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, the court ruled 6-3 that the long-standing statute of limitations for bringing a suit against a regulation was unconstitutional, a decision that could enable businesses to file suits and challenge rules over a longer time horizon. "Often, an agency rule represents a negotiated compromise among many views [where] few get everything they want, few get nothing, most are heard and then markets adjust to the new norms, [but] there are always a few who disagree strongly," he said. "This rule is a recipe for those outliers to pursue fishing expeditions."Rust added that agencies will now need to ensure they are not relying too heavily on the assumption that courts will defer to their perspective. Even so, he cautioned that the heightened threat of legal action could have the effect of stripping rules of their potency."Agencies will have to be careful not to rely on Chevron deference when issuing rules, but it is equally important that skittish agencies push back against litigious bullies," he said. "They must make the right rule, not just the one palatable to extremist views."Solomon notes that the post-Chevron era could reshape rules that apply existing statutory authorities to new and emerging technologies like crypto or artificial intelligence. Congress could incorporate the decision by building express delegations of authority to implementing agencies into legislation, she said. "In Loper Bright, the Supreme Court recognizes that Congress sometimes expressly delegates discretionary authority to agencies — for example, to define particular statutory terms … [saying] a reviewing court should respect the delegation while policing the agency's adherence to its boundaries," she said. "So in enacting new legislation — such as a statutory framework for crypto or AI — Congress may be able to achieve greater predictability about how the statute will work if it expressly delegates authority to agencies in areas where it wants agencies to act."
Scalia: 'Regulators are wise to be more careful' after Chevron ruling | American Banker (47 minute podcast w/ transcript) Gene Scalia, the renowned administrative law litigator and former Secretary of Labor who has been retained by a large bank lobbying group for a potential lawsuit over capital rules, says a key decision by the Supreme Court last week should be a warning for all regulators.
Getting to yes: Reported Basel retooling may — or may not — have legs -While it's clear bank regulators plan to make substantive changes to a bank capital overhaul requiring institutions to put up more unborrowed funds to lend to consumers, banking experts vary on how this might be accomplished, and whether even a revised proposal will be enough to preclude legal challenges from the banking industry.The Basel proposal was hotly contested when it was first proposed last July on a number of grounds, including the top-line capital raise for the largest banks, the risk weight treatment of mortgages, clean energy assets and small business loans. Bloomberg reported last week that regulators are shopping a draft set of revisions to the proposal aimed at quelling those concerns.Lawyer Gregory Lyons of Debevoise and Plimpton said he isn't confident of the timeline just yet, given regulators still appear to be hashing things out internally."I think there's different proposals circling around how to amend it, but honestly, I'm not sure they know," said Lyons. "We're pretty close to what's going on and I just do think there's a lot of internal — good faith — but internal debates about how this is all going to play out."Corporate lawyer Chen Xu, also with Debevoise, says he thinks the heads of the agencies involved in the rulemaking — which is a joint effort between the Federal Reserve, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — would like to strike a compromise with their capital skeptic colleagues, some of which are within the same agency. "Some of the agency principals hope if they make enough concessions, they can get it through by August so this doesn't get tied up with the election," he said. "We've been hearing that view is gaining traction, but we've also heard that there are a number of folks inside the agencies who would rather have a reproposal, and right now it's hard to see who's winning."But whether those adjustments can be incorporated into a final proposal or must be included in a new proposal — or some mix of both — remains unclear. Under the Administrative Procedure Act, changes made to final rules must be a "logical outgrowth" of what was in the original proposed rule. Many in and around the banking sector argue that the changes needed for the Basel III endgame proposal exceed this standard, and therefore an entirely new rule should be put through its own notice and comment period.Jaret Seiberg, financial policy analyst at TD Cowen says he expects regulators will at least partially withdraw and re-propose the rule — often dubbed Basel III endgame — given statements from one of the most influential players shaping the pending regulation: Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell."Powell has effectively made this commitment to Congress," commented Seiberg. "It doesn't mean there is zero probability for the rule to be finalized, but a re-proposal seems likely." Regulators invited banks to present data about how they would be affected by the proposal in January. Seiberg says the findings of the study — which he predicts should come this summer — should provide more clarity about whether or how quickly a re-proposal could happen.While the Fed is the most politically independent of the financial regulators, it is facing pressure from both the financial industry — which wants a re-proposed rule — while some Democratsand consumer advocates want the rule finished largely as is. A new proposal would significantly extend the timeline for finalization. Banking policy expert Ian Katz of Capital Alpha Partners says the Fed could devise a way to allow public comment on certain rule revisions without restarting the process."The Fed may put out something that basically looks like a reproposal but is called something else and allows the public to comment without starting the process from scratch," said Katz. "If the Fed were to do that in the fall — before the elections — it could finalize the Basel endgame rule next year, probably in the first half."Banks and their trade group representatives have been vocal in their opposition to the Basel proposal and have availed themselves of novel tactics in elevating the issue with voters and lawmakers. From launching advertising campaigns on Sunday night football to identifying procedural weaknesses they could challenge in court, the industry has made it clear that it will oppose the rule on as many fronts as possible. Bank trade group the Bank Policy Institute, whose members would all be impacted by the rule, has retained corporate litigator Eugene Scalia — son of former Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia — to advise a potential legal challenge to the rule.While the agency trio has yet to formally announce planned revisions to the rule, industry allies within the regulatory state have begun to provide cover for the kinds of changes banks are demanding.Fed Governor Michelle Bowman — who has previously called for the rule to be reproposed — Wednesday floated a number of changes she believes are required to garner broad consensus among the Fed's deliberative body, the Board of Governors. She argues the rule does little to address the underlying causes of the most recent U.S. bank failures in March 2023."I think we addressed the challenges that we faced during the earlier financial crisis through the implementation of Dodd Frank, I think those have proven to be successful," she said. "What led to SVB failing was not the same thing that led to the real estate crisis back then, earlier, a decade ago." Powell has repeatedly stressed the need for this consensus.
BankThink: The FDIC's resolution plan for failed megabanks is an empty promise | American Banker In April the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation published a detailed plan for resolving failures of systemically important bank holding companies under Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act. The FDIC's plan seeks to achieve one of the primary goals of the Dodd-Frank Act by protecting taxpayers from the costs of rescuing "too big to fail" megabanks. Although the FDIC developed its Title II plan over the past decade, that plan remains unused. The FDIC's plan adopts a "single point of entry" resolution strategy. Under that approach, only the parent holding company of a failed megabank is placed in a Title II receivership. Losses from the receivership are imposed on the holding company's shareholders and owners of the holding company's long-term debt. The FDIC provides the necessary funding to maintain the continued operations of the holding company's bank and nonbank subsidiaries.The FDIC's plan has two very significant flaws. First, imposing losses on the parent holding company's shareholders and debt holders will not provide the resources needed to keep a failed megabank's subsidiaries open and operating. Wiping out the claims of debt-holders will increase the holding company's equity from an accounting standpoint, but it will not provide any new funds to pay the operating costs and other obligations of the holding company's subsidiaries.Second, the FDIC's sole source of funding for a Title II receivership is the Orderly Liquidation Fund, or OLF, which the Treasury administers. When Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act, the big-bank lobby defeated proposals that would have required megabanks to pay risk-based premiums to prefund the OLF. As a result, the OLF has a zero balance. The FDIC must therefore borrow from the Treasury to pay the costs of a Title II receivership that cannot be covered by wiping out the holding company's shareholders and debt-holders.The FDIC has very strong incentives to avoid borrowing from the Treasury to finance the resolution of a failed megabank. Borrowing from the Treasury would raise political red flags by increasing the federal government's debt burden and signaling that taxpayers might have to pay additional taxes if the FDIC cannot repay the Treasury.Such concerns apparently played a major role when Silicon Valley Bank collapsed in March 2023. SVB's failure provided the FDIC, Federal Reserve and Treasury with a perfect opportunity to show that Title II provided an effective methodology for resolving SVB. However, federal regulators chose not to use Title II, probably because they wanted to avoid borrowing from the Treasury during the political fight over raising the federal debt ceiling in early 2023.Instead, the FDIC (with the Fed's and Treasury's concurrence) issued a systemic risk determination and placed SVB in a bank receivership under the Federal Deposit Insurance Act. A separate Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceeding was required for SVB's parent holding company, SVB Financial Group, or SVBFG. The Chapter 11 proceeding was controlled by SVBFG's creditors instead of the FDIC. A Title II receivership would have avoided Chapter 11 and given the FDIC complete command over SVBFG and its nonbank subsidiaries.By forgoing a Title II receivership, the FDIC lost the opportunity to gain substantial proceeds from selling SVBFG's valuable securities and venture capital subsidiaries. The FDIC also exposed itself to SVBFG's $1.9 billion deposit claim, which the holding company could not have asserted under Title II.Thus, the decision to forgo a Title II receivership for SVB imposed significant additional losses on the FDIC and its Deposit Insurance Fund. The FDIC estimates that the DIF will suffer a$19.2 billion loss from protecting SVB's uninsured depositors. To cover that loss, the FDIC imposed a special assessment on FDIC-insured banks with more than $5 billion of uninsured deposits.If the FDIC had established a Title II receivership for SVB, large bank holding companies with $50 billion or more of assets would have been obligated to reimburse all of the FDIC's losses. Instead, as indicated above, the FDIC imposed a portion of those losses on smaller banks. Additionally, the FDIC depleted the DIF in the midst of a serious banking crisis, thereby creating potential risks for insured depositors as well as taxpayers standing behind the federal government's full faith and credit guarantee for FDIC-insured deposits.
BankThink: Banks' use of credit risk transfer transactions is opaque and risky --Banks use credit risk transfer transactions, or CRTs, to compress their risk-weighted assets, or RWA, and thus reduce the denominator of their regulatory capital ratios (as opposed to adding more capital in the numerator) to improve the ratio. But bank regulators do not require reporting in banks' quarterly filings either of such transactions or of their impact on bank capital. U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, or GAAP, also offers limited visibility into CRTs. More fundamentally, CRTs can transform credit risk into other less obvious risks.Such transactions aren't new. Prior to the 2008 financial crisis, banks engineered CRTs with credit default swaps, or CDSs. These CRTs went severely amok when AIG and multiple bond insurers couldn't meet their obligations to banks to absorb loss. Credit risk was transformed into counterparty risk and then systemic risk. Reflecting on that fiasco, in 2015 at the Office of Financial Research, we wrote a paper and observed that post-2008 large data gaps remained around CRTs. Specifically, little data is available about banks' use of CRTs and the impact on regulatory capital ratios. Information on CRT counterparties is another data gap. We argued for bank regulatory reporting on both topics.Fast forward to today, both data gaps remain and some U.S. banks with significant unrealized losses due to interest rate changes are on so-called "RWA diets" to strengthen regulatory capital ratios. One facet of the RWA diet includes a revival in CRTs. In the current credit cycle, these CRTs take the form of credit linked notes, or CLNs, and cash collateralized CDS that better mitigate counterparty risk. In both cases, banks get cash upfront in exchange for making payments to nonbanks that depend on the underlying credit performance of a pool of loans. If the loans default, the bank's payments are reduced, and losses are passed to nonbanks. The AIG risk is gone — so what is the problem? There are three issues.First, in these CRTs, the bank's cash proceeds may: 1) become general cash of the bank; 2) go to a controlled account at the bank; or 3) be held by a third-party custodian. It is crucial to know what happens with CRT cash because the three structures yield different outcomes. In the first, if the bank uses the CRT cash for other purposes before CRT maturity, such as buybacks or new loans, regulators have effectively permitted it to take out a loan against its capital. If the bank retains the cash and isn't subject to the liquidity coverage ratio, or LCR, its liquidity buffer may appear improved though that cash effectively is bank capital. In the second, again when the bank is not subject to the LCR which requires reporting of encumbered assets, the bank's liquidity could be overstated. In the third, some non-LCR banks report deposits at other banks as part of their liquidity buffers, again liquidity could be overstated. Further, the account legal agreement and the custodian's quick disbursement of funds when losses are realized are key.Second, to assess CRTs' impact, it is key to know if a bank is shifting high- or low-credit-risk assets to nonbanks. In 2008, banks shifted high-risk exposures like CDOs to AIG. They paid AIG for unlimited credit protection. AIG was unable to absorb the risk. In 2011 U.S. bank supervisors issued guidance that high-cost CRTs could result in excessive earnings smoothing versus up-front loss recognition. Today the situation is different. Some U.S. midsize banks with an overhang of low-yielding assets and weak profitability are shifting low-risk exposures to nonbanks. CRTs on low-risk loans — prime auto, fund finance and asset-backed securities — help minimize CRT cost and support profitability. However, because these CRTs are cash collateralized, they only absorb a finite amount of credit loss, not unlimited loss. Per one 10-K, "[o]ur credit linked notes do not ensure full protection against credit losses, and as such we could still incur significant credit losses. …" Further, if high quality loans are cherry-picked for CRTs, the bank may retain the credit risk of lower quality loans. In essence, this is a classic adverse selection problem where the CRT provides relief based on a risk-weight for the loan that reflects an average level of credit risk, but transfers low risk due to CRT pricing. Thus, a bank may obtain RWA relief on good loans in excess of the underlying economics and have less capital for other unexpected losses. The 2024 CCAR stress test covers 32 banks, at least 7 of which have CRTs. Clarity on how banks' specific CRT loan pools, structures and amortization impact CCAR would be welcome.Finally, CRTs may create governance risk. A key data gap is the limited counterparty information available to investors and supervisors when a bank turns to hedge funds, private equity or private credit for CRT. CRTs improve capitalization ratios. At the same time, U.S. banks' lending to nonbanks continues to grow rapidly. It is unclear how to monitor CRTs' compliance with Regulation O, which limits loans to bank insiders. Nonbanks or their portfolio companies could have borrowing relationships with the bank. There are also emerging examples of nonbanks engaged in bilateral CDS with banks for risk transfer and then securitizing the CDS for sale to still other financial institutions. This opacity increases governance and financial stability risks from CRTs.
BankThink: Banks should embrace new tools for measuring consumer financial health | American Banker --The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's recent encouragement of banks to support their customers' financial health is a watershed moment for consumers and the industry. In placing products in service to financial health, the OCC has outlined a path by which the industry can reverse dwindling consumer trust and instead engage, support and earn theloyalty of its customers.The OCC recently released a report encouraging banks to measure the financial health of their customers using a set of "vital signs," indicators akin to those doctors assess at a routine checkup. The report also provides examples of the actions banks could take to support customers whose results suggest they are facing financial challenges.This arrives as consumer trust in U.S. banks continues to fall significantly, with a new J.D. Power report documenting a growing percentage of people having switched or planning to switch banks. Refocusing on financial health that is rooted in measurable progress is a powerful strategy for banks to deepen customer relationships and boost their overall performance.Dozens of banks, credit unions and fintechs have been experimenting with financial health measurement for more than five years, largely through periodic customer surveys, and a small but growing number have looked to administrative data for insights. The OCC's recommended vital signs provide a common framework and a starting point for the industry to test how best to leverage transactional data to understand in real time both the state of their customers' financial lives and what strategies work to improve them.Acting Comptroller Michael Hsu shared his vision for the Vital Signs initiative at my organization's EMERGE conference as the report was released, making the case for why financial health matters for banks and for the banking system as a whole."Imagine if there were clear and objective measures of consumers' financial health," Hsu said. "... Consumer financial product offerings could be better aligned with customer needs. … Banks that support customers' efforts to improve their financial health would enhance their customer relationships and demonstrate that the banks truly have their back and can be trusted."
BankThink: Activity-based regulation would mean a more competitive financial system | American Banker --In the corporate world, banks occupy a unique niche. They are hybrid entities — unlike most corporations with a singular focus, banks offer products that are both liabilities and assets (or deposits and loans) as products. A bank's balance sheet reflects this core function. A bank's assets are primarily the various types of loans they extend, financing everything from cars and homes to businesses and entrepreneurial ventures. On the flip side, their liabilities represent the funds entrusted by their depositors, categorized as either longer-term investments or readily accessible checking accounts. This unique ability, to both take deposits and make loans, however, is no longer sufficient to guarantee banks a dominant position in the financial system. Competition is rising across their entire spectrum of offerings. Nonbank lenders have emerged, offering everything from quick payday advances to complex structured corporate loans. The return of interest rates has empowered broker-dealers to introduce attractive, interest-bearing money market accounts, competing directly with traditional bank savings products. Perhaps the most disruptive force comes from the rise of fintech companies. These agile players are particularly adept at capturing a new generation of customers with innovative payment solutions,Banks are perhaps the most heavily regulated institutions in the United States. These regulations, while sometimes viewed as a burden, play a crucial role in maintaining the stability of our entire financial system. Nonbank entities, offering similar services to the public, often operate under a lighter regulatory touch. This can be a significant advantage for them in the short term. However, this advantage comes with a trade-off. Unlike banks, nonbank lenders typically lack access to certain benefits, such as the ability to leverage insured deposits, deposit excess reserves with the Federal Reserve or access the Fed's discount window or payment systems. These unique capabilities enjoyed by banks are important factors to consider when evaluating the competitive landscape. One proposed solution to this uneven regulatory landscape is to establish consistent activity-based regulations across the entire financial system, regardless of the institution offering the service. This approach could serve as a foundational principle for a more balanced regulatory framework. However, implementing such a system raises additional questions. How will the different activity categories be defined and regulated? One potential solution involves a three-tiered approach. The first tier would encompass activities currently limited to banks due to inherent risks. These activities would continue under existing (or slightly adjusted) regulations. For a second tier of activities, where nonbanks currently hold an advantage due to lighter regulations, the rules would be adjusted to create a level playing field for both banks and nonbanks. Finally, a third tier could encompass activities where banks possess a significant advantage. These activities might be cautiously opened up to nonbanks under new, carefully crafted regulations to foster competition while maintaining stability. The first tier focuses on safeguarding insured deposits through restricted activities, such as traditional lending. These activities would likely remain exclusive to banks, subject to existing capital, liquidity and risk management requirements. Maintaining prudent management of insured deposits is critical for the stability of the financial system. However, innovation is possible within this tier. Entities outside the traditional banking model might access the insured deposit market without directly gathering deposits themselves. This could be a positive development, but such entities would still be subject to the same safeguards as existing banks. The second tier aims to create a level playing field by allowing banks to compete in currently unregulated or lightly regulated markets, like proprietary trading and private equity. Banks, under stricter regulations, face limitations in these areas. As long as banks operate in this space solely with investor funds (not insured deposits), they could be permitted the entire range of activities allowed by nonbanks. Additionally, if the market deems conduct regulations beneficial, these could be applied uniformly across all institutions. The third tier seeks to expand access by allowing nonbank entities to compete in areas where banks hold advantages, such as payment services and consumer deposit aggregation. However, this access would be subject to the same conditions as banks, including similar examinations to ensure control over overdrafts and overall operations.
BankThink: Capital One's acquisition of Discover will be a win for consumers | American Banker --Critics of Capital One's acquisition of Discover have made unfounded arguments about the deal's financial stability, payment processing and compliance with anti-redlining laws. The proposed merger is rife with benefits for American consumers, merchants and small businesses in the form of varying payment options, stability, access to capital in all communities and higher deposit rates. Consumers will have more options if the acquisition is approved. Visa is offering a new product that allows flexibility in choosing between debit, credit and installment loans without needing separate cards. Capital One can choose different payment rails in addition to using Discover for debit card transactions. More payment options are good for consumers and merchants. According to one article, "the card industry is not so concentrated that the acquisition would result in a lack of consumer or merchant options." All else equal, providing different payment network options creates competition and lowers costs for merchants without having to pass restrictive and unnecessary legislation such as the Credit Card Competition Act. Deposit rates do not necessarily decrease after every bank merger. One paper found that deposit and loan rates converge to the acquiring bank's rates. Capital One and Discover offer 12-month certificates of deposit with annual percentage yields of 5% and 4.7%, respectively. Based on the paper's findings of "uniform pricing," Discover would adopt the acquiring bank's rate — in this case Capital One. Consumers will see certain deposit rates increase. Opponents of the merger have wrongly criticized how it will affect credit access for low- and moderate-income communities. Capital One most recently received a Community Reinvestment Act, or CRA, rating of "outstanding" and Discover received a rating of "satisfactory." There is no tangible evidence to suggest their ratings would worsen after the acquisition is finalized. The real threat to a sound banking system is allowing activists to weaponize CRA ratings. TheOffice of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation are already amending bank merger guidelines that would make it easier for activists to halt mergers.
Letter to the editor: Don't blame credit repair for surging consumer complaints | American Banker --In the recent American Banker article, "Surge in credit report lawsuits has banks, credit agencies scrambling," several industry representatives claim that the spike in complaints and lawsuits against the credit bureaus, as well as the banks and debt collectors that supply them with information, are the result of illegitimate credit repair. But that claim has been refuted, including by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. For example, the CFPB noted that, in 2019, less than 3% of credit reporting complaints filed with that agency were flagged by the responding company as being submitted by an unauthorized third party. And a January 2022 CFPB report criticized the credit bureaus for relying on "speculative criteria" in treating complaints as illegitimately submitted by third parties, leading the companies to fail to provide relief 98% of the time. The complaints and lawsuits over credit reporting are actually the consequence of the industry's own well-documented biases and dysfunctions. In 2012, the Federal Trade Commission found that one fifth of consumers (or over 40 million) had verified errors in their credit reports, with one in 20 (or over 10 million) having errors so serious they would be rejected for credit or need to pay more. More recent studies by Consumer Reports in 2021 andthis year show similar percentages. With millions of consumers with errors in their credit reports, just a small uptick in the fraction filing complaints or lawsuits would generate huge spikes.Claiming it's all illegitimate credit repair also minimizes the pain and frustration of millions of consumers who've been unfairly burdened with credit reporting errors. The fact that thousands of them are filing federal lawsuits without an attorney is more a reflection of their desperation than anything else. To file a federal lawsuit is not easy, requiring time and effort to navigate a complex process. The idea that thousands of pro se litigants do so without a legitimate basis does not make sense.For over 50 years, American consumers have been harmed by the credit bureaus, who sell our data for profit, have policies that favor creditors and debt collectors over consumers and fail to conduct meaningful investigations when consumers file disputes. Now that consumers have the tools to hold them accountable, credit bureaus are pointing the finger at credit repair. Don't buy it. -- Chi Chi Wu. Senior Attorney, National Consumer Law Center
Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q2; Office Vacancy Rate at New Record High - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q2; Office Vacancy Rate at New Record High. From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Apartment Demand Slowly Catching Up, Office Stress Continued to Manifest, Retail Resilient Despite Bankruptcies, And Industrial Cools Down: National multifamily vacancy stayed flat at 5.7% over the first half of 2024, 50 basis points (bps) above the same time last year and 80 bps higher than the pandemic low. While new supply continued to trickle in and readjust the market balance or even help ease some of the housing shortages, demand has been slowly but steadily catching up. Excessive supply – measured by the total completion minus net absorption on a rolling 12-months basis – trended slightly downwards over the past two quarters after peaking at the year-end of 2023. Rising vacancy tapered off, allowing some room for slight performance gain. Asking and effective rents recovered some lost ground that occurred in the prior two quarters, both up 0.3% in Q2 to close the first half of the year at $1,838 and $1,746, respectively, but the gain was too marginal to make up all the losses. Asking rent stayed at virtually the same level as 2022. Comparing peak-to-trough, multifamily asking and effective rents are still 0.6% and 1.1% below their peak values recorded from last fall. The average gap between asking and effective rents remained above $90 for the third straight quarter, indicating the highest level of concessions in our tracking history. …Moody’s Analytics (Reis) reported that the apartment vacancy rate was at 5.7% in Q2 2024, unchanged from 5.7% in Q1, and up slightly from the pandemic peak of 5.6% in Q1 2021.This graph shows the apartment vacancy rate starting in 1980. (Annual rate before 1999, quarterly starting in 1999). Note: Moody’s Analytics is just for large cities.Reis also reported the effective rents were down 1.1% year-over-year.Multifamily effective rents have declined by 1.1% year over year providing some rent relief, though the previous inflationary period drove effective rents up substantially as effective rents are up by 19.9% since Q4 2019 before the pandemic. From Moody’s:The office sector set a record vacancy rate at 20.1%, breaking the 20% barrier for the first time in history. The slow bleed occurring in the office sector has led to a steady rise in the vacancy rate as permanent shifts in working behavior have outlasted the initial wave of the pandemic four years ago. Q2’s record rate of 20.1% is up from 19.8% the previous quarter and represents the third straight record-breaking quarter beyond our previous historic peaks of 19.3% set in 1986 and 1991.Effective rents fell by 0.1% in Q2 as tenants sought greater concessions, though asking rents grew by 0.3%, representing the largest growth over the last year. Effective rents dropped by 0.5% in the last year, representing a change in growth since the pandemic. Effective rent growth had remained positive, though small, in 2021 and 2022. However, effective rents have now been negative or flat for four straight quarters as the market continues to adjust. Net absorption was at -13.6 million square feet in Q2, the worst performance since Q1 2021. Moody’s Analytics reported that the office vacancy rate was at 20.1% in Q2 2024, up from 19.8% in Q1 2024. This is a new record high, and above the 19.3% during the S&L crisis.
FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q4 2023 (released this morning). ... Here is some data showing the distribution of interest rates on closed-end, fixed-rate 1-4 family mortgages outstanding at the end of each quarter since Q1 2013 through Q4 2023. This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3%, and also under 4%, starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic. The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.3% (now at 58.1%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 77.0%). These low existing mortgage rates makes it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply. This is a key reason existing home inventory levels are so low. See: "The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates" The percent of loans over 6% bottomed in Q2 2022 at 7.2% and has increased to 13.4% in Q4 2023. Here are graphs on the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA data base.
ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas --Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Existing Home Inventory Surges in Florida and Texas. Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: As Market Gradually Shifts to Higher Rates, Latest Data Identifies Possible Refinance Tipping Point
- According to ICE Mortgage Technology data and analytics, as of May, 24% of mortgage holders had current interest rates of 5% or higher, up from 10% two years ago
- Four million loans originated since 2022 have rates of 6.5% or higher – 1.9M at 7%+ – providing modest opportunity for growth in the number of mortgage holders with incentive to refinance as rates ease
- An average of ~240K mortgages sit in each 1/8th of a percent rate band from 7-7.625% providing only modest increases to the number of in-the-money mortgages as those loans gain refinance incentive
- There’s a spike of 690K loans with rates just below 7%, driven in part by borrowers buying down their rates for the comfort of an interest rate that starts with a 6, which could be a tipping point to more meaningful, albeit still modest, refi activity as those borrowers gain incentive to refinance
- The VA share of rate/term refi activity experienced a noticeable upswing in recent weeks, accounting for more than 30% of recent rate locks, according to ICE originations data, up from less than 10% last year
- The average VA refinance borrower is early into their 30-year term (average prior loan age of ~1 year) and benefitting from a 1pp cut in their first lien mortgage rate, for an average savings of $230 per month
- Refinance retention hit its highest level in 18 months in Q1, driven in part by a tripling of rate/term retention – from 15% in Q4 to 46% in Q1 – among borrowers refinancing their VA and FHA loans
Andy Walden, ICE’s Vice President of Research and Analysis notes, the overall market remains heavily skewed toward lower-rate mortgages, but that is changing.“As of May, 24% of homeowners with mortgages now have a current interest rate of 5% or higher,” said Walden. “As recently as two years ago an astonishing nine of every 10 mortgage holders were below that threshold.“All in, there are 5.8M fewer sub-5% mortgages in the market today than there were at this time in 2022. This has been a slow-moving change, as borrowers with lower rates have sold their homes or, to a smaller degree, refinanced to withdraw equity. The entire market is acutely aware of how elevated rates have been constraining origination volumes. But seen from another angle, the same dynamic is also serving to gradually enlarge the population of folks with high-rate mortgages, who are actively waiting for the moment a refinance makes sense. This would benefit both a growing number of homeowners and lenders.”Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased in May. Here is a graph on delinquencies from ICE. Overall delinquencies decreased in May and are below the pre-pandemic levels.
- • The national delinquency rate fell 6 basis points (bps) year over year to 3.04% in May; the second lowest point on record, behind 2.92% in March 2023
- • A fifth consecutive monthly improvement in serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due, but not yet in active foreclosure) reset what had already been a more than 18-year low
- • While inflow of borrowers newly 30 days late dropped to a one-year low, those rolling to later stages of delinquency edged higher from April and fewer delinquent loans cured to current status
The local data I track is indicating that Florida and Texas inventory is above normal, whereas inventory is still low in most of the country. Source: ICE / Realtor.com
- • While the new inflow of listings nationally has averaged a 23% deficit from pre-pandemic levels over the past three months, most Texas and Florida markets are seeing new listing volumes near or above pre-pandemic averages
- • In fact, of the 19 markets with new listings volumes within 10% of their 2017-2019 same-month average, 14 are in Texas or Florida, including seven of the nine markets with surpluses
- • Miami, at -15%, is the only major market in those two states still running a deficit of more than 10%, but is still markedly better than the national average
So why are homeowners in those two states more willing to list their homes for sale?
- • It may be partly due to home affordability, although in simple home price, income, and interest rate terms there are many other markets with more challenging affordability dynamics
- • Higher interest rates in those areas may be creating a smaller lock-in effect, or a better supply of inventory providing a more fluid market where borrowers are able to trade up or down more easily
- • And finally, it could be related to insurance costs; recent research from our sustainable finance team has shown how expensive insurance is in both of those states compared to other areas of the country
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. Black Knight reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 4.6% year-over-year in May, down from 5.3% YoY in April. Source: ICE Home Price Index (HPI)
- • Annual home price growth slipped to +4.6% in May – down from 5.3% in April – the slowest pace in seven months
- • If current seasonally adjusted gains persist, that growth rate could dip below 4% by August, but could catch a little tailwind toward the end of the year as weaker growth from late last year rolls out of the backward-looking 12-month window
- • On an adjusted basis, prices rose 0.33% in May, and while that marks three straight months of slowing gains amid rising interest rates that hampered affordability, it’s only slightly below the 0.35% adjusted growth reported in April
- • That is equivalent to a 4.0% seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), which, while modestly below the 25-year average growth rate of 4.9%, is still firmly in growth mode at the national level
- • Weak purchase applications and continued inventory growth across the country signal a milder summer price environment, but signs of price declines so far have been limited and local
There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 2.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending June 28, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 29 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates moved higher last week, crossing the 7 percent mark, even as the latest inflation data has kept market expectations alive for a rate cut from the Fed later this year,” “Purchase applications decreased the final full week of June, even as both new and existing inventories have increased over the past few months. Refinance activity also remains subdued – although there was a slight increase in applications for conventional refinance loans.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 7.03 percent from 6.93 percent, with points increasing to 0.62 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 12% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, but still below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and mostly flat lined since then with a slight increase recently."Mortgage Rates Move Lower" -- From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Move Lower After Weak Service Sector Report "Data dependent" is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy. And while the Fed doesn't directly dictate mortgage rates, the bond market tends to trade the same data that the Fed cares about. Today's key report, the ISM Services index, isn't quite at the top of the Fed's list, but it's a longstanding market mover when it comes to bonds and, thus, rates. Today's installment was much weaker than expected. Weak data correlates with lower rates, all other things being equal. Bonds improved immediately after the release. This allowed mortgage lenders to set lower rates today. Some lenders had already published their initial rates for the day and several of them ended up issuing positive reprices before the end of the day. The bond market is closed tomorrow for the holiday, but will be back to digest an even more important economic report on Friday morning: the big jobs report. [30 year fixed 7.08%]
CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 4.9% Year-over-year in May as "Prices Cool" --Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for May. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for April. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Dips Below 5% in May as Prices Cool Across More Markets U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 4.9% year over year in May 2024 compared with May 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.6% compared with April 2024. U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down to 4.9% in May, though it was still the 148th consecutive month of annual growth. As has been the case for the past year, the Northeast continued to lead the country for annual appreciation, with New Hampshire the only state to post a double-digit increase. Meanwhile, the price growth gap between detached homes and attached homes further widened, likely indicating homebuyer preferences for more personal space to work from home after the height of the pandemic, as well as surging HOA fees due to maintenance costs. “While national annual home price growth continues to slow as anticipated, cooling appreciation over the past months is now observed in more markets, as the surge in mortgage rates this spring caused both slowing homebuyer demand and prices,” “However, persistently stronger home price gains this spring continue in markets where inventory is well below pre-pandemic levels, such as those in the Northeast.” “Also, markets that are relatively more affordable, such as those in the Midwest, have seen healthy price growth this spring,” “On the other hand, markets with notable inventory increases, including those in Florida and Texas, continue to see annual deceleration that is pulling prices below numbers recorded last year.” This was a smaller YoY increase than reported for April, and down from the 5.8% YoY increase reported at the beginning of 2024.
Housing July 1st Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.8% Week-over-week, Up 38.4% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.8% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 30.7% from the February seasonal bottom, and at the highest level since July 2020.This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of June 28th, inventory was at 646 thousand (7-day average), compared to 634 thousand the prior week. Inventory is still far below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Note that inventory is up 80% from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.Inventory was up 38.4% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 37.7%), and down 33.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 33.6%). Inventory should be above 2020 levels for the same week in two weeks.Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing.Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 38.1% YoY - On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.comreported inventory was up 35.2% YoY, but still down almost 34% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 38.1% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending June 29, 2024• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 38.1% above year-ago levels
For the 34th week in a row, the number of for-sale homes grew compared with one year ago. This past week, the inventory of homes for sale grew by 38.1% compared with last year, increasing the gap compared with recent weeks and notching the largest annual increase since April 2023.
Despite nearly eight months of building inventory, buyers still see more than 30% fewer homes for sale compared with before the pandemic. Limited home supply has kept upward pressure on home prices, which, combined with still-high mortgage rates, means many buyers remain on the sidelines.
• New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 10.8% from one year ago Seller activity picked up momentum this week. New listing activity increased annually, climbing by more than in any week back to late April. Recently falling mortgage rates might be encouraging more homeowners to list their homes for sale. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
Inventory was up year-over-year for the 34th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels although up year-over-year.
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year -- Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. For example, the sharp increase in rents helped me deduce that there was a surge in household formation in 2021 (See from September 2021: Household Formation Drives Housing Demand). Now that household formation has slowed, and multi-family completions have increased, rents are under pressure. From ApartmentList.com: Apartment List National Rent Report - Rent prices ticked up for the fifth straight month, but rent growth over the course of 2024 as a whole remains modest, signaling ongoing sluggishness in the market. The national median rent increased by 0.4% in June and now stands at $1,411, but the pace of growth slowed slightly this month. This is typically the time of year when rent growth is accelerating amid the busy moving season, so sluggish growth this month indicates that the market is headed for another slow summer. Since the second half of 2022, seasonal declines in rent prices have been steeper than usual and seasonal increases have been more mild. As a result, apartments are on average slightly cheaper today than they were one year ago. Year-over-year rent growth nationally currently stands at -0.7 percent and has now been in negative territory since last summer. But despite this cooldown, the national median rent is still more than $200 per month higher than it was just a few years ago. In May 2024, the U.S. median rent continued to decline year over year for the 10th month in a row, down 0.7% for 0-2 bedroom properties across the top 50 metros, on par with the rate seen in April 2024.
Construction Spending Decreased 0.1% in May --From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased: Construction spending during May 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,139.8 billion, 0.1 percent below the revised April estimate of $2,142.1 billion. The May figure is 6.4 percent above the May 2023 estimate of $2,011.8 billion. Private spending decreased and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,652.1 billion, 0.3 percent below the revised April estimate of $1,656.7 billion. ... In May, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $487.6 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised April estimate of $485.4 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential (red) spending is 6.3% below the recent peak in 2022. Non-residential (blue) spending is 0.8% below the peak in January 2024. Public construction spending is at a new high. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 6.5%. Non-residential spending is up 4.1% year-over-year. Public spending is up 9.7% year-over-year. This was below consensus expectations for 0.3% increase in spending, however, total construction spending for the previous two months was revised up. This is probably just the start of weakness for private non-residential construction.
Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.3 million SAAR in June due to Cyberattack --Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for June: Cyberattack Puts Dent in June U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales (pay site). An initial estimate indicates the cyberattack cost the industry 50,000 unit-sales in June and knocked 600,000 off the month’s seasonally adjusted annual rate, which totaled 15.3 million. The disruptions caused quarterly sales to decline year-over-year for the first time since Q3-2022, as deliveries totaled 4.075 million units, down 0.4% from April-June 2023. The Q2 SAAR of 15.7 million was flat with the year-ago total but higher than Q1’s 15.3 million.This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for June (red).Sales in June (15.29 million SAAR) were down 3.8% from May, and down 4.8% from June 2023.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Sales in June were below the consensus forecast. There should be some bounce back from the cyberattack in July.
Heavy Truck Sales Unchanged in June -- This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the June 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009.Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 308 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 496 thousand SAAR in June, up slightly from 495 thousand in May, and down 9.6% from 549 thousand SAAR in June 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Heavy truck sales are solid.
Trade Deficit Increased to $75.1 Billion in May --The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $75.1 billion in May, up $0.6 billion from $74.5 billion in April, revised. May exports were $261.7 billion, $1.8 billion less than April exports. May imports were $336.7 billion, $1.2 billion less than April imports. Both exports and imports decreased in May. Exports are up 4.3% year-over-year; imports are up 6.2% year-over-year. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19 and then bounced back - imports and exports have generally increased recently.The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China decreased to $24.0 billion from $25.2 billion a year ago.
ISM® Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.5% in June - The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 48.5% in June, down from 48.7% in May. The employment index was at 49.3%, up from 51.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 49.3%, up from 45.4%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 48.5% June 2024 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in June for the third consecutive month and the 19th time in the last 20 months, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in June, down 0.2 percentage point from the 48.7 percent recorded in May. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 50th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 49.3 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the 45.4 percent recorded in May. The June reading of the Production Index (48.5 percent) is 1.7 percentage points lower than May’s figure of 50.2 percent. The Prices Index registered 52.1 percent, down 4.9 percentage points compared to the reading of 57 percent in May. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.7 percent, down 0.7 percentage point compared to the 42.4 percent recorded in May. The Employment Index registered 49.3 percent, down 1.8 percentage points from May’s figure of 51.1 percent. This suggests manufacturing contracted in June. This was below the consensus forecast.
ISM® Services Index Decreases to 48.8% in June -- The ISM® Services index was at 48.8%, down from 53.8% last month. The employment index decreased to 46.1%, from 47.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 48.8% June 2024 Services ISM® Report On Business®Economic activity in the services sector contracted in June for the second time in the last three months, The Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, indicating sector contraction for the third time in 49 months. “In June, the Services PMI® registered 48.8 percent, 5 percentage points lower than May’s figure of 53.8 percent. The reading in June was a reversal compared to May and the second in contraction territory in the last three months. Before April, the services sector grew for 15 straight months following a composite index reading of 49 percent in December 2022; the last contraction before that was in May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 49.6 percent in June, which is 11.6 percentage points lower than the 61.2 percent recorded in May and the first month of contraction since May 2020. The New Orders Index contracted in June for the first time since December 2022; the figure of 47.3 percent is 6.8 percentage points lower than the May reading of 54.1 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the sixth time in seven months and at a faster rate in June; the reading of 46.1 percent is a 1-percentage point decrease compared to the 47.1 percent recorded in May. The PMI was below expectations.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 238,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending June 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 238,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 233,000 to 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 238,500, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 236,000 to 236,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 238,500. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were higher than the consensus forecast.
BLS: Job Openings "Little Changed" at 8.1 million in May --From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.4 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little.The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. This series started in December 2000. Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings increased in May to 8.14 million from 7.92 million in April. The number of job openings (black) were down 13% year-over-year. Quits were down 14% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
ADP: Private Employment Increased 150,000 in June --From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 152,000 Jobs in May; Annual Pay was Up 5.0% - Private sector employment increased by 150,000 jobs in June and annual pay was up 4.9 percent year-over-year, according to the June ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”). ... "Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month.” This was below the consensus forecast of 170,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 180,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in June.
June Employment Report: 206 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate - From the BLS: Employment Situation - Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 206,000 in June, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in government, health care, social assistance, and construction. ... The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised down by 57,000, from +165,000 to +108,000, and the change for May was revised down by 54,000, from +272,000 to +218,000. With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 111,000 lower than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Total payrolls increased by 206 thousand in June. Private payrolls increased by 136 thousand, and public payrolls increased 70 thousand. Payrolls for April and May were revised down 111 thousand, combined.The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968. In June, the year-over-year change was 2.61 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year. The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate increased to 62.6% in June, from 62.5% in May. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 60.1% from 60.2% in May (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1% in June from 4.0% in May. This was above consensus expectations; however, April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined.
Job Growth Back to Normal Pre-Covid Pace, Wage Growth Still Higher: Longer-Term Employment Trends by Industry - The jobs report data released today is based on two large surveys:
- The survey of “establishments” (employers): nonfarm jobs created (+206,000 in June), various hourly and weekly wage measures, and employment by industry.
- The survey of households: total employment, self-employment, part- and full-time employment, measures of labor force, labor-force participation rates, unemployment, six unemployment rates, employment-population rate, etc.
But the household survey data is wrong because the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the Census Bureau’s population estimates, but the Census Bureau has so far failed to account for the huge wave of immigrants in 2022 and 2023, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).CBO came up with its own population estimates by combining data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) with Census Bureau data. CBO estimated that net immigration was 2.67 million immigrants in 2022, and 3.3 million immigrants in 2023, the highest in its data going back to 2000, and about triple the average rate between 2000 and 2021 (1.05 million immigrants per year). But the Census Bureau has failed to account for the huge influx of immigrants. In terms of population growth: CBO: +0.89% for 2022; +1.14% for 2023; highest since 2005. Census Bureau: +0.36% for 2022; +0.49% for 2023. We discussed this at length here, including a chart of the two diverging population growth estimates. Because the BLS extrapolates its household survey data to the understated population estimates by the Census Bureau, it understates total employment, and understates the labor force, and messes up all other metrics based on them. So we will no longer cover the household survey data for that reason until Census corrects its population estimates. But we do cover the establishment survey: payroll jobs, wages, and jobs by industry. The establishment survey: Job growth back to normal, wage growth still higher. Payrolls at employers increased by 206,000 in June (blue in the chart). Over the past three month, including all revisions, employment increased on average per month by 177,000 (red). This three-month average, which irons out some of the month-to-month squiggles, is right in the middle of job growth in 2017 through 2019, the Good Times (horizontal purple line). In other words, job growth has slowed from the frenetic pace after the lockdowns and labor shortages, back to the normal pace of the Good Times. The total number of payroll jobs at employers rose to 158.6 million, a year-over-year increase of 2.61 million jobs (+1.7%). Average hourly earnings increased by 3.5% annualized (0.3% not annualized) in June from May. But May was revised up to an increase of 5.3% annualized, the biggest increase since January, and the second biggest since June 2023. The three-month average, which includes revisions and irons out some of the month-to-month squiggles, rose by 3.6% annualized. As we can see in the chart, there was a clear cooling in wage growth from red-hot peak growth at the end of 2021 until October 2023. Since then, there have been a lot of big month-to-month squiggles, but no clear further deceleration of the trend. Year-over-year, average hourly earnings rose by 3.9%, and well above the five-year prepandemic range of 2.5% to 3.5%:
One more time: bifurcation in the jobs report, as Establishment Survey shows continued jobs growth, while Household Survey comes close to triggering the “Sahm Rule” --In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In particular: Last month I wrote that “There is a common thread in the above answers: the three good results all came from the Establishment Survey, which as we’ll see below, was very strong. The one very poor result came from the Household Survey, which for the third time in four months was frankly recessionary.”Importantly, since then I wrote at length about the issue created by the surge in immigration since 2020. To summarize, “The cause of the underestimate of growth in the Household Survey seems most likely to be a big undercount of post-pandemic immigration . . . In the past two years through May, according to the Census Bureau, the US population has grown by a little over 1%. But according to the Congressional Budget Office, it has grown slightly over 2%. That’s over a 3,000,000 difference!….“If we make the reasonable assumptions that this big surge of immigrants has been from Latin America, and much more closely resembles the prime working age demographic of 25-54 years than the native population, applying those adjustments yields an estimate of an additional 2,000,000 employed through May 2024 vs. official Household Survey numbers.”“But as the economy has cooled from “white hot” in 2021-22 to memerly “hot, “*new* entrants to the labor force who fail to find their first job will not show up in unemployment claims; but they will show up in the unemployment rate.” I think that explains most of what we have seen this morning as well. Below is my in depth synopsis.
- 206,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 134,000. Government jobs increased by 70,000.
- April was revised downward by -57,000, and May was revised downward by -54,000, for a net decline of -111,000. This continues the pattern from nearly every month in the past 18 months of a steady drumbeat of downward net revisions.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed an increase of 190,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, in this series only 195,000 jobs, or 0.1%, have been gained. This is not just the lowest YoY increase since the pandemic lockdowns, but with rare exception, it has always and only occurred during recessions.
- The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.1%, another new 2+ year high. That’s because while employment rose, as per the above, but the number unemployed also rose, by 162,000.
- The U6 underemployment rate was unchanged at 7.4%, 0.9% above its low of December 2022.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declined -483,000 to 5.234 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million in early 2023.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose 0.1 hours to 41.0 hours, but is still down -0.5 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs declined -8,000.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -100.
- Truck driving declilned -100.
- Construction jobs increased 27,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 3,100 to another new post-pandemic high.
- Goods producing jobs as a whole rose 19,000 to another new expansion high. These should decline before any recession occurs.
- Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining late 2022, fell by another -48,900, and are down about -500,000 since their peak in March 2022. This appears to be not just cyclical, but a secular change in trend.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer declined -181,000 to 2,128,000.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.10, or +0.3%, to $30.05, for a YoY gain of +4.0%. This continues the decelerating trend in YoY growth in wages since their post pandemic peak of 7.0% in March 2022. Keep in mind that this is still significantly higher than the inflation rate YoY as of last month.
- the index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined -0.2%, and is up 1.3% YoY, basically in trend for the past 12+ months.
- the index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.2%, and is up 5.3% YoY. These have been slowly decelerating since the end of the pandemic lockdowns. But with the latest YoY consumer inflation reading of 3.3%, this remains powerful evidence that average working families have continued to see gains in “real” spending money.
- Professional and business employment declined -17,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series had generally been declining since May 2023, but earlier this year had resumed increasing again. As of this month, they are only higher YoY by 0.3% – a very low increase that has *only* happened in the past 80+ years immediately before, during, or after recessions.
- The employment population ratio remained steady at 60.1%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate increased +0.1% to 62.6%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020. It had been growing sharply from late 2021 through 2023, but has completely stalled this year.
SUMMARY: This month’s report continued the theme of much of this year: a fairly strong Establishment Survey, and a weak Household Survey. Turning to the latter first, there was yet another uptick in the unemployment rate, and the pathetic YoY growth in the number of employed as noted above was also consistent with an imminent or even ongoing recession. But the Establishment Survey remained generally strong, although there were some more cracks in it this month. Aside from the headline growth, most of the leading sectors, as well as manufacturing hours, also showed growth. The nominal gain in average hourly earnings and aggregate payrolls was also decent. The aforesaid “cracks” included a pronounced problem in the (non-)growth in professional and business jobs, the continued decline in temporary help, and the small declines in motor vehicle manufacturing and trucking employment.There will probably be lots of chatter in the next few days as to whether the “Sahm Rule” has been triggered. It has not, because the 3 month average in the unemployment rate is 4.0%, and the lowest 3 month average in the last year is 3.6%. Additionally, Claudia Sahm herself has indicated that the same immigration issue I have highlighted may also make her metric signal a false positive this time.Unless there are very large downward benchmark revisions in the Establishment Survey, what I see is continued if less strong growth in the number of jobs, but with fewer new entrants successfully landing those jobs, and several important weak spots, particularly in professional and business employment.
Comments on June Employment Report -- The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.Construction employment increased 27 thousand and is now 630 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Manufacturing employment decreased 8 thousand and is now 170 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.Earlier: June Employment Report: 206 thousand Jobs, 4.1% Unemployment Rate Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old. The 25 to 54 years old participation rate increased in June to 83.7% from 83.6% in May to the highest level since 2001. The 25 to 54 employment population ratio was unchanged at 80.8% from 80.8% the previous month. Both are above pre-pandemic levels and near the highest level this millennium. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% YoY in June. From the BLS report: "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 million from 4.42 million in May. This is lower than pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.4% from 7.4% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.5%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.515 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.350 million the previous month. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.174 million, and up from the recent low Through June 2024, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 42 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 5th place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939).Summary: The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however, April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.1%. Another decent report, however, the three-month average employment growth has slowed to 177 per month.
A growing body of data is debunking myths about remote work --As conflicts over return-to-office initiatives rage, whether in the U.S. government or the private sector, the amount of data about remote work continues to grow.Many organizations, worried about potential drops in morale and productivity, are calling employees back to the office. But the employees, having experienced the flexibility of remote work, are reluctant to let it go.In this context, a recent two-part meta-analysis published in the peer-reviewed journal “Personal Psychology” and led by Ravi Gajendran and his team offers crucial insights into the real effects of remote work, potentially reshaping this ongoing debate.Gajendran’s first meta-analysis covers 108 studies involving 45,288 participants. It examines the effects of remote work intensity — the extent to which employees work remotely, ranging from one or two days a week to full-time remote work — on various employee outcomes. Additionally, the meta-analysis compares remote workers to their office-based counterparts across 62 studies with 41,904 participants.The findings of the meta-analysis show that, contrary to many leaders’ concerns, remote work has beneficial effects on several critical employee outcomes. For example, remote work boosts employees’ job satisfaction and commitment to their organizations. The flexibility of remote work allows them to better manage their work-life balance, leading to more positive attitudes towards their jobs and employers.Additionally, remote work enhances employees’ feelings of support from their organizations. This increased support likely stems from the more deliberate communication and support mechanisms necessitated by remote work, making employees feel more valued. Supervisors often rate remote workers higher, dispelling the myth that remote employees are less productive or less visible to their managers. Moreover, remote work reduces employees’ intentions to leave their jobs. The flexibility and autonomy of remote work serve as powerful retention tools. Despite the overall positive findings, the analysis did uncover one significant downside to remote work: loneliness. As employees spend more days working remotely, they tend to feel more isolated. This increased sense of isolation can negatively impact their overall well-being. However, new research on mental health in remote work provides a nuanced perspective on this issue. Groundbreaking research conducted at the University of Pittsburgh, which analyzed data from over 5 million mental health screens across multiple U.S. states, highlights the significant positive influence of workplace flexibility on mental well-being. This study found that states with a higher percentage of firms offering flexible work arrangements exhibited considerably lower rates of depression and suicide risk. The correlation was particularly robust in 2023, a fully post-pandemic year, indicating that the flexibility of remote and hybrid work can enhance mental health outcomes. The research suggests that while feelings of isolation may have been prevalent during the enforced social isolation of the pandemic, these feelings likely diminished as people began to re-engage with social, civic and community activities. The study also shows that flexibility in work arrangements can reduce stress by alleviating the pressures associated with commuting, rigid schedules and work-life imbalance. Additionally, increased autonomy and control over work schedules contribute to higher job satisfaction and overall well-being. Thus, whatever negative effects may come from feelings of isolation among some remote workers are more than outweighed by the mental health benefits of remote work.
Chicago Teachers Union keeps educators in the dark during talks to impose new sellout contract: “I can’t keep up with inflation” With just days to go before the present contract expires on June 30, the administration of Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson and the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU) have kept teachers in the dark as to the real substance of the “negotiations” as they work out the best way to suppress teachers’ demands for higher wages and better working conditions. More than anything, the CTU and Johnson hope to impose a tentative agreement on teachers well before the opening of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) on August 19. They hope to avoid at all costs the possibility of an acrimonious dispute with over 25,000 Chicago teachers in what it is already a highly politically unstable situation. Teachers are fed up with years of declining wages and working conditions, and are overwhelmingly opposed to the Israeli genocide in Gaza and its support by the Democrats, above all “Genocide Joe” Biden. Johnson, a former CTU bureaucrat, has played a leading role in carrying out mass arrests against anti-genocide protesters and has already threatened a massive police response to protests at the DNC. The reality is that Chicago Public Schools (CPS) is facing a deficit of $391 million for the next fiscal year, with even higher deficits in years to come. During the campaign Johnson assured the ruling class, “There will be some tough decisions to be made when I am mayor of the city of Chicago, and there might be a point within negotiations that the Chicago Teachers Union quest and fight for more resources—we might not be able to do it. Who is better able to deliver bad news to a friend than a friend?” Behind the veil of silence, the CPS administration is already carrying out hundreds of layoffs, which some have referred to as a “purge.” In an interview with WTTW’s Chicago Tonight, CTU president Stacy Davis Gates cited Johnson being mayor as the reason for the less militant tone coming from the union. She said, “The voice that you don’t hear from the CTU is one that is confrontational because we don’t have a mayor being confrontational with us. In fact, we have the opposite. We have a mayor who’s encouraged both sides to work together to foment this transformation.” Davis Gates refused to implicate Johnson in the layoffs, disingenuously blaming CPS CEO Pedro Martinez, despite the fact that Johnson maintains absolute control over the the composition of the Board of Education. In line with long-term CTU policy of blaming attacks on teachers and education as the product of racism, Davis Gates claimed that “he balanced the budget on the backs of Black and Brown women,” even though many of those laid off are not “Black or Brown.” In one teachers’ Facebook group, a teacher said, “We lost one classroom teacher and two sped [special education] positions. Not to mention the TAs [teaching assistants].” Another commented, “The amount of sped positions lost is extremely concerning.” A third teacher added, “Music teacher and miscellaneous/SECA positions were cut at the school I am assigned to.” Other teachers noted the layoffs appear to target tenured teachers and those with many years of experience. One teacher said, “I lost my position with 1 year to retirement because of budget cuts.” Asked if she could retire early, the teacher responded, “I am certified in every subject to make certain this [would] never happen to me. I can’t retire early. If I could, I would.” One school librarian who was cut said those laying her off “blamed the budget.” A different educator asked, “Doesn’t this happen every few years?” Another explained, “Yes, it’s a purge of the highest paid because they have been around the longest. You know, they are old, kids can’t relate to them. Get them out. Hire someone for one-third their salary. This happens every few years. THE PURGE!” A third teacher responded, “Or we get bullied to leave with 34 years in—even if we are distinguished and love what we do. Time to push us out when the salary gets high. So move us into positions we would never want. It’s so sad.”
Michigan Democratic Governor Whitmer delivers gut punch to schools in 2025 budget - On Monday, July 1, the Democratic Party-dominated Michigan legislature passed its 2025 fiscal year budget, delivering a gut punch to public schools already reeling from the ending of federal Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER). Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who cynically welcomed the agreement as “putting students first,” has cut the school aid fund budget by nearly $1 billion, down from $21.5 billion to $20.6 billion. The Democrats, who control all three branches of the state government, have flat-lined per-student public school funding. This amounts to a substantial cut as a result of inflation, which has particularly ravaged school budgets contending with double-digit increases in the cost of transportation, food services and utilities. This assault compounds the loss of ESSER, under which Michigan schools received $6 billion. The Biden administration has allowed the program to end, catapulting public education into economic crisis across the US. Even prior to the budget deal, 5,100 Michigan teachers were projected to lose their jobs due to the ESSER termination. The Michigan budget underscores the Democratic Party’s national priorities —war and Wall Street. Democratic Governor Whitmer is emerging as a national party leader and has been repeatedly cited as a possible replacement for the crisis-wracked Biden candidacy. While failing to provide even a modicum of inflation protection to school districts, the budget will drastically cut mental health funding for schools from $328 million to a derisory $25 million. Whitmer, following Biden’s approach, is allowing the state’s multimillion-dollar mental health initiative, begun in 2021, to expire under conditions where such services are more urgently needed than ever. In the days before the budget was released, the Detroit Federation of Teachers (DFT) pushed through an early contract settlement with the state’s largest school system. Fully aware of Detroit educators’ long history of militancy, as well as a recent sickout by Flint teachers and educator protests in Ann Arbor and Wayne-Westland, the DFT bureaucracy’s snap contract deal was a preemptive attempt to avert a statewide struggle against layoffs and budget cuts. Detroit is the largest district in the state, with about 53,000 students and 3,200 teachers. School officials reacted to the statewide cuts with stunned disbelief. “The zero per-pupil foundational increase is unreal to me,” said R. J. Webber, superintendent of Northville Public Schools. “Seeing that was awful,” he added. Andrea Oquist, superintendent of Livonia Public Schools, said, “A 98 percent decrease [in mental health and school security support] is hard to fathom right now.” Flat Rock Superintendent Andrew Brodie called it “a pretty tough day to be an educator in the state of Michigan.” Webber, fearing cuts to student mental health programs, told The Metro earlier this year, “Mental health issues are impacting students in all grades — even children in kindergarten.” L’anse Creuse Schools Superintendent Erik Edoff emphasized, “This really cuts across all socioeconomic lines, all types of backgrounds, and it creates an impact for learning for kids across the entire spectrum now.” State Democrats attempted to defend the cuts by citing a recent reduction in districts’ mandatory retirement contributions. While this provides some short-term liquidity to schools, it is not a solution. The Michigan Public School Employees’ Retirement system is already underfunded by an estimated $35 billion, essentially creating a time bomb threatening the future livelihoods of thousands of retirees.
Federal court halts Title IX changes in Moms for Liberty lawsuit - A federal court has temporarily halted the Biden administration’s proposed changes to Title IX in response to a lawsuit filed by Moms for Liberty and Young America’s Foundation. The ruling prohibits the Department of Education from enforcing the new Title IX rules in Kansas, Alaska, Utah, and Wyoming, as well as in schools attended by members of Young America’s Foundation and children of Moms for Liberty members. Moms for Liberty co-founders Tiffany Justice and Tina Descovich praised the decision, stating, “Gender ideology does not belong in public schools, and we are glad the courts made the correct call to support parental rights. All parents must have their voices heard, and their right to raise their own children is part of the very fabric of a free America.”The lawsuit, filed by the Southeastern Legal Foundation and Mountain States Legal Foundation, argued that the changes to Title IX, which redefine “sex” to include gender identity, violate the First Amendment rights of K-12 and college students. The court agreed, finding the new rule vague and likely to force students to self-censor. The ruling ensures that the Biden administration’s new rule will not be enforced in the specified states and schools pending further legal proceedings.
California Moms For Liberty Chair Goes Viral For Confronting Drag Queens - Beth Bourne, chair of the California chapter of Moms for Liberty, has gone viral across social media on Monday for a video confronting drag queens in the lobby of a Hawaiian hotel on Sunday. Moms For Liberty, a "parental rights" nonprofit has gained national prominence since its founding in 2021, initially to oppose COVID-19 regulations in schools. Since then, Moms for Liberty has worked to elect right-wing school board candidates, oppose teachings about race in schools, curb the rights of LGBTQ+ students, and advocate for book bans. The Southern Poverty Law Center has designated Moms for Liberty an anti-government extremist group. On Sunday, in a video first posted by Hawaii-area drag queen Marina del Rey to her Facebook profile, the woman, now identified as Bourne, began recording a video with her cell phone as she started berating drag queens that were in the lobby of the Alohilani Resort Waikiki Beach. "We were attacked...she's still yelling," del Rey said, sharing the two-minute video on Facebook, which has garnered 21,000 views. Newsweek has reached out to Moms for Liberty via email for comment. In the video, Bourne took aim at the drag queens as she accused the hotel of failing to provide a safe environment for her son. "I'm sorry, but this is—I paid to be a customer at a hotel where I thought you believed that women were real. That because you put on makeup, because you're wearing high heels, because you have a Barbie outfit on, that you don't think this is degrading? This is misogyny," Bourne said addressing the drag queens.She added, addressing a hotel representative: "If you give me back my money right now, I will leave the hotel, but I'm not going to have my children come down from the 30th floor and see what's happening here."However, Bourne continued to criticize the drag queens as she went up to one drag queen asking, "Are you in the hotel? Are you dressed up? Are you a man? Are you a man pretending to be a woman?"The drag queen responds by saying they're not "pretending to be anything."The clip has since made its way across social media on Monday including on X, formerly Twitter, where X user StrictlyChristo shared the video and condemned Bourne's actions. "While on vacation in Hawaii, this Karen gets shaking mad when she sees a drag queen in the lobby for a Pride Celebration brunch. Most mainlander haoles are unaware that Mahu have been an integral and accepted part of Polynesian society for hundreds of years," The video has garnered over three million views on X.
ICE fake university students can sue the US, court rules -- Students who enrolled in a fake university set up by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as part of a sting operation can sue the U.S., an appeals court ruled last week.The ruling by a three-judge panel of the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals reversed a lower court decision that dismissed a complaint against the U.S. by an Indian student named Ravi Teja Tiyagurra.The University of Farmington was created by ICE in 2015 in Michigan with the aim of exposing student visa fraud. The operation was publicly revealed when eight people were indicted for visa fraud and “harboring aliens for profit” in 2019.According to the appeals court ruling, Ravi said in his 2021 complaint that he was unaware the apparent university was not a real school and paid thousands of dollars to enroll as a student. He alleged that he had “entered into a contract” with the University of Farmington for education services and that the university “had breached that contract, and the contract’s implied covenant of good faith and fair dealing,” per the decision.“The government’s operation eventually came to light, but the government neither provided the paid-for education nor gave Mr. Ravi his money back,” the judges wrote in the ruling.“The University of Farmington students and their legal team are ecstatic that the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit has ruled to allow the 600 students unjustly targeted by this fake ICE university to have their day in court,” Anna Nathanson, an attorney for Ravi, said in a press release last Friday.
Supreme Court immunity, Chevron rulings leave law schools reeling - The Supreme Court isn’t making it easy to be a law professor these days. After overturning the 40-year-old Chevron deference last week, the justices threw law curricula for another major loop on Monday with their earth-shaking ruling on presidential immunity — all this just two years after Roe v. Wade was struck down after 50 years on the books. Law school professors have been meeting to discuss the forthcoming changes to their courses, trying to get their heads around the new legal landscape the conservative-leaning court is creating. “Administrative law goes through some periods where change is glacial, if at all, and other periods when it’s extremely rapid. The period around the New Deal is a very rapid change, the Nixon administration and immediately afterwards was a period of rapid change and this is now a period of very rapid change,” said David Super, a professor at Georgetown Law. “So if you were to compare a syllabus from three years ago, four years ago, with one from next year, I think you’d see not just different cases, but different topics being discussed.” The Supreme Court ruled presidents have broad immunity from prosecution when they are engaging in official acts of the office, giving a major win to former President Trump in the federal criminal case regarding Jan. 6, 2021 and his efforts to stay in office.“It’s really out of keeping with many, many of the prior cases. It’s also out of keeping with the line of cases regarding presidential immunity in which the court has been really clear that presidents are not above the law, but this decision says, in important ways, that they are,” saidClaire Finkelstein, professor of law and philosophy at the University of Pennsylvania. “And so, it’s going to be hard to know how to teach this, to know how to teach this to students, because it really requires us to rethink and reframe what we’ve been teaching them all along,” she added. And that rewrite-the-books ruling came just day after the court struck down Chevron, which allowed judges to rely on government agencies when an ambiguous law is sued based on interpretation. Judges will now have to use their own best interpretation of the law when deciding a case, making it much easier for regulations to be overturned. “We do not call into question prior cases that relied on the Chevron framework,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote. “The holdings of those cases that specific agency actions are lawful — including the Clean Air Act holding of Chevron itself — are still subject to statutory stare decisis despite our change in interpretive methodology.” Law professors say they are lucky such rulings typically happen over the summer as it gives them time to converse with peers about how to teach them in the upcoming school year. “It takes us a while to process the opinion, then we talk a lot about it with our colleagues to try to figure out whether the opinion is actually going to be as consequential as we think it is, and then whether it’s the kind of thing that needs to be in an introductory course, in which case you really have to think hard about how it fits into the curriculum, or whether it’s something that’s for a more advanced class, in which case you might be able to sneak it in under a rubric like contemporary developments or something like that,” said Noah Rosenblum, and assistant professor of law at New York University.
Biden's SAVE student loan relief plan to resume: Appeals court -- A federal appeals court ruled Sunday that a key part of President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan can resume after an injunction was placed on the initiative. The previous injunction on the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) repayment plan said that the administration could not lower monthly payments or forgive some student debt. The 10th Circuit U.S. Court of Appeals lifted the injunction on the part that would lower monthly payments, allowing them to drop from 10 percent of discretionary income to 5 percent this month. The administration did place some borrowers in forbearance while the legal issues are worked out. “While we are frustrated by the continued legal challenges brought to limit borrower relief, we are pleased to see the Department of Education take quick and decisive action by placing 3 million borrowers in an administrative forbearance,” said Natalia Abrams, president of Student Debt Crisis Center. Around 8 million Americans signed up for the SAVE plan after it was implemented in the fall as part of President Biden’s wider efforts to bring relief to student loan borrowers. Back in October, under the plan, the government raised the amount of income protected from 150 percent above the federal poverty guidelines to 225 percent. It also makes it so borrowers who pay the principal balance on their loans monthly will not be penalized for the growth of unpaid interest.
Youth death rate still higher in US than similar countries, with pandemic bump in older teens --Young people died of any cause at higher rates than those in 16 other high-income countries from 1999 to 2019, with a steep increase in deaths in youth aged 15 to 19 years during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a research letter published yesterday in JAMA Pediatrics. Using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Human Mortality Database, Virginia Commonwealth University researchers compared death rates among US youths aged 0 to 19 years with those in 16 comparison countries, estimated excess deaths for 1999 to 2019, and assessed mortality trends through 2021. The comparison countries were Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. "The literature documents a long-standing health disadvantage in the US relative to other high-income countries, with excess deaths due in part to disproportionately high mortality rates," the study authors wrote. "Recent years have seen an increase in youth mortality due to homicide, suicide, and drug overdoses and in all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic." US youths died at higher rates than their counterparts in all comparison countries. Death rates rose among adolescents aged 10 to 19 years from 2013 to 2021, but the median death rate in the other countries fell, widening the mortality gap. While the United States saw a steep rise in deaths among teens aged 15 to 19 years, most comparison countries did not.An estimated 413,948 excess deaths occurred in US youth aged 0 to 19 years from 1999 to 2019, for an average of 19,712 annual deaths. Infants made up 56.6% of excess deaths during those years, followed by those aged 15 to 19 years (26.2%), 1 to 4 (7.5%), 10 to 14 (5.8%), and 5 to 9 (3.9%). The percentage of excess deaths among 10- to 19-year-olds rose from 27.5% to 35.8% from 2009 to 2019; young men made up 61.4% of those deaths.The suicide rate among youth aged 10 to 19 years started to rise in 2007, as did murders in 2013 and fatal drug overdoses in 2014. "Easier access to firearms and opioids likely contributed," the authors concluded.
Survey: Adults dropped from Medicaid after pandemic faced healthcare access, affordability issues -- A survey of low-income adults in four southern US states shows that nearly half of those disenrolled from Medicaid after COVID-19 pandemic protections ended had no insurance in late 2023, leading to struggles to afford healthcare and prescription drugs and threatening to broaden a gap that had narrowed during expanded governmental benefits. The data were derived from 89,130 adult residents of Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Texas participating in the National Health Interview Survey in 2019, 2021, and 2022. In 2023, states rechecked Medicaid eligibility after COVID-19 governmental protections expired, disenrolling millions. The average participant age was 48.0 years, and 51.6% were women. Researchers from Beth Israel Medical Center and Harvard Medical School published the results late last week in JAMA Health Forum. Health insurance coverage rose among only low-income respondents during the pandemic (2022, 81.8%; 2019: 78.4%; adjusted relative risk [aRR], 1.04), while healthcare use decreased slightly in all income groups. Low-income adults were less likely to delay medical care during the pandemic than before because of cost (2022, 11.2%; 2019, 15.4%; aRR, 0.73). They were also less likely to forego care (2022, 10.7%; 2019, 14.9%; aRR, 0.72). High-income adults, however, reported no changes in care-seeking, significantly narrowing income-based disparities. Also during the pandemic, all respondents were less likely to struggle to pay medical bills, but their worry about paying the bills didn't change from before COVID-19. Similarly, low-income adults were less likely in 2022 than in 2019 to delay medications (9.4% vs 12.7%, respectively; aRR, 0.74), not fill prescriptions (8.9% vs 12.0%; aRR, 0.75), skip medications (6.7% vs 10.1%; aRR, 0.67), or take fewer medications (7.3% vs 11.2%; aRR, 0.65) due to costs. These patterns were similar among high-income respondents. Improvements in measures of healthcare and prescription drug affordability persisted even after considering changes in insurance coverage and healthcare use. These patterns were similar when comparing measures of affordability in 2021 with those in 2019. "Despite initial increases in unemployment and economic loss, we found that medical care and prescription medications became more affordable for US adults during the COVID-19 pandemic," the study authors wrote. "Notably, this was a change from the prepandemic trend of health care affordability, which had been stable if not worsening." They said the improvement in healthcare affordability for low-income respondents may be partially explained by the direct economic aid from stimulus checks, childcare credits, and expanded federal safety-net policies, such as those that offset income losses and doubled Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits from 2019 to 2022.
Data: Infants of moms with hepatitis C more likely to be tested, but many cases undetected Infants born to mothers with active hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are more likely to be screened for the virus, but pediatric HCV infections are likely going undetected in the many unscreened babies, finds a new study in the Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society. University of Pittsburgh researchers used maternal HCV status to estimate the likelihood of screening infants born from 2015 to 2019 at a large academic hospital."Only 30% (range 8.6%–53.1%) of children born to women with HCV infection are screened," the authors noted. "This is due to multiple factors, such as loss to follow-up, poor communication between healthcare providers, and electronic health record (EHR) gaps." Mothers were tested for HCV infection 4.4 months before delivery, on average. Of 503 HCV-exposed infants, 260 (52%) were born to actively infected women, 137 (27%) to previously infected mothers, and 106 (21%) to those with probable infection. A total of 385 babies (77%) had an order for HCV screening, of which 262 (68%) were tested. Most completed screenings (58%) were of infants of actively infected mothers, 49% to mothers with probable infection, and 43% to those previously infected. Pediatric HCV infection ranged from 1.7% to 7.7%. Infants of actively infected mothers were 2.5 times more likely to be screened than those of previously infected women; there was no difference for infants of women with probable infections.Active maternal HCV infection, smoking, and documentation of viral exposure or clinic visit after 18 months were tied to orders for pediatric screening. Earlier birth year, premature birth, and residence with nonbiologic parents at 18 months were linked to screening completion.Probable or active maternal infection, ongoing substance use, lack of a maternal anxiety diagnosis, residence with nonbiologic parents or clinic visit at 18 months, and documentation of maternal viral load were associated with infant infection.
COVID Is Surging Right Now—This Is the #1 Symptom to Look Out For, According to Infectious Disease Experts --COVID-19 is still raging—which any high-risk or immunocompromised person could've told you long ago—and right now, there's a huge surge of infections across the U.S.Infectious disease experts say it's relatively unusual to see surges in the summer months, but due to the heat wave (or dome, depending on where you live), more people are congregating indoors to savor air conditioning and seek respite from soaring temperatures and humidity.There are currently 39 states with growing or likely growing surges of COVID-19, and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) makes it look unlikely to see a decline anytime soon."There is concern in the public health community that a summer spike in COVID-19 cases may occur as a result of the new FLiRT variants combined with less vaccine uptake and declining immunity in the community, as well as increased travel and indoor gatherings during the summer," medical epidemiologist and board-certified pathologist Dr. David A. Schwartz, MD, MS Hyg, FCAP, tells Parade. "Laboratory research suggests that the current vaccines and immunity acquired from previous infection may not be effective in producing high levels of protection, especially among certain persons with risk factors such as those persons with underlying conditions, the immunocompromised and the elderly." Dr. Ashley L. Drews, MD, an epidemiologist at Houston Methodist, points out, "We have seen COVID surges every summer since the onset of the pandemic, but this one seems to be starting earlier in the summer than the previous summer COVID surges. We are likely seeing a surge right now as the most widely circulating variants, the FLiRT variants, have mutated and further evaded the immune system coupled with waning immunity in general. There was low uptake from the updated COVID vaccine in the fall of 2023."What's more, while hospitalizations are low compared to the peak of the pandemic in 2020, they're still going up compared to where they were in the spring."Emergency room visits for COVID-19 have increased over 14% from the week before," Methodist Le Bonheur Healthcare infectious disease physician Dr. Shirin Mazumder, MD, says. "COVID-related hospitalizations have also increased by 25% from the previous week.In fact, those numbers will likely increase even further when people travel for July 4 parties and long weekends—and these numbers don't even take into account long COVID, which can linger for months or more in some patients and be really serious.Infectious disease experts and epidemiologists we spoke with agreed that the most common COVID symptom of the current surge is a sore throat."Unfortunately one of the most common COVID symptoms currently seems to be a sore throat with or without a mild fever," infectious disease specialistDr. Andreas M. Kogelnik, MD, PhD., tells us. "I say unfortunately because—of course—a sore throat can be attributed to many different causes." This is especially true for people who have seasonal allergies, making it easier to dismiss the symptom as a high pollen count versus a contagious infection like COVID.Other COVID symptoms commonly being reported include:
- Body aches
- Chills
- Congestion
- Cough
- Fatigue
- Fever
Some good news? Loss of smell and taste, which were common symptoms of prior COVID strains, are now uncommon. And a little more good news: "COVID symptoms have remained very consistent in the last couple of years," Dr. Mazumder points out. "With the information available so far, there does not appear to be an increase in symptom severity as it relates to hospitalizations and death with the currently circulating strains."
In-hospital delirium tied to decline in older COVID patients' functional, cognitive abilities -- Older COVID-19 patients who experience delirium in the hospital are at higher risk of increased functional disability and cognitive impairment in the 6 months after leaving the hospital, a new JAMA Network Open study suggests.Sometimes mistaken for dementia, delirium is a striking change in mental status that leads to confusion and lack of awareness of the situation and environment.The Yale University–led study involved 311 patients aged 60 years and older being treated for COVID-19 at one of five hospitals in the Yale–New Haven Health System from June 2020 to June 2021, with telephone or videoconference follow-up through January 2022. Information on the patients' pre-COVID cognitive condition was derived from electronic health records. The researchers assessed delirium using the Chart-based Delirium Identification Instrument and cognition with the Montreal Cognitive Assessment at 1, 3, and 6 months after hospital release. Disability was measured across 15 functional activities, including activities of daily living and mobility activities. The average patient age was 71.3 years, 52.4% were women, and more than one-third were of minority race."The COVID-19 pandemic amplified certain factors associated with increased risk of delirium," the researchers noted. "These include prolonged hospital stays, the administration of medications such as sedatives, social isolation resulting from infection control measures, immobility, and communication barriers between patients and health care practitioners arising from the use of personal protective equipment."Of the 311 adults with functional disability, 49 (15.8%) experienced in-hospital delirium, as did 31 (11.4%) of the 271 patients with impaired cognition. In-hospital delirium was tied to 32% greater functional disability (rate ratio [RR], 1.32) and more than double the risk of worse cognitive symptoms (odds ratio [OR], 2.48) in the 6 months after hospital release.Patients who experienced delirium were more likely to have a history of greater functional and cognitive disability and were older than those who didn't have delirium in both the functional cohort (average age, 75.6 vs 70.5 years) and the cognition cohort (73.1 vs 70.2).A greater proportion of patients with delirium in both cohorts were admitted to a stepdown (intermediate) unit or intensive care unit (ICU) and needed mechanical ventilation. Twenty-nine patients (9.3%) in the functional disability group were admitted to the ICU.Before hospitalization, the unadjusted average number of disabilities among patients with delirium was 4.0, rising to 6.6 at 1 month after hospital release and falling slightly, to 5.3, at 6 months. In contrast, the average number of pre-hospitalization disabilities among patients without delirium was 1.8, climbing to 2.7 at 1 month and ebbing to 2.1 at 6 months.
NIH announces launch of clinical trial for nasal COVID vaccine --The National Institutes of Health (NIH) yesterday announced the launch of a phase 1 trial of a nasal vaccine against COVID-19, which also marks the first National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) trial conducted as part of the government's Project NextGen—an effort designed to advance the development of next-generation vaccines against the disease. In an NIH statement, NIAID Director Jeanne Marrazzo, MD, said first-generation COVID vaccines have greatly mitigated the toll of the disease and are still effective for preventing severe illness, hospitalization, and death. She added, however, that they aren't as good at preventing illness and battling milder disease."With the continual emergence of new virus variants, there is a critical need to develop next-generation COVID-19 vaccines, including nasal vaccines, that could reduce SARS-CoV-2 infections and transmission," she said.The investigational vaccine, called MPV/S-2P, uses a murine pneumonia vector (MPV) to deliver a version of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. The NIH said MPV has an affinity for epithelial cells that line the respiratory tract and may be useful for delivering the vaccine to body sites where natural coronavirus infection begins. In preclinical nonhuman primate studies, the vaccine prompted a robust systemic immune response as well as mucosal immunity, which plays a greater role in controlling respiratory virus replication.
No link between first trimester COVID-19 vaccination and birth defects | CIDRAP -- Maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the first trimester of pregnancy is not linked to major structural birth defects, according to a study yesterday in JAMA Pediatrics.The study was based on outcomes seen among women who received one or two mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses in the first trimester of pregnancy and gave birth from March 5, 2021, to January 25, 2022, at eight US study sites.Among 42,156 eligible pregnant women, 7,632 (18.1%) received an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine in the first trimester. Of the 34 524 pregnant women without a first-trimester COVID-19 vaccination, 2,045 (5.9%) were vaccinated before pregnancy, 13,494 (39.1%) during the second or third trimester, and 18,985 (55.0%) were unvaccinated.Major structural birth defects occurred in 113 infants (1.48%) after first-trimester mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, the authors said, and in 488 infants (1.41%) without first-trimester vaccine exposure. The adjusted prevalence ratio was 1.02 (95% confidence interval, 0.78 to 1.33).Compared with unvaccinated pregnant women, those vaccinated in the first trimester were older (mean age, 32.3 years compared with 30.6 years)."In secondary analyses, with major structural birth defect outcomes grouped by organ system, no significant differences between infants vaccinated or unvaccinated in the first trimester were identified," the authors said.
Kids vaccinated against COVID may have lower rates of asthma symptoms - COVID-19 vaccination may help protect children aged 5 and older against symptomatic asthma, according to a Nemours Children's Health–led research team.The team calculated state-level changes in parent-reported asthma symptoms for 2020 and 2021 compared with 2018 to 2019, evaluated state-level time trends, and linked trend associations with state-level variables from the same time.The observational study used state data on parent-reported asthma symptom rates in children from the National Survey of Children's Health 2018-2019 and 2020-2021; age-adjusted COVID-19 death rates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 2020 and 2021; percentage of the population aged 5 years and older who completed the COVID-19 primary vaccination series in 2020 or 2021; and indoor face-covering requirements through August 2021 from 20 states and Washington, DC."Social distancing measures in 2020 were associated with lower rates of emergency visits and hospitalizations for asthma among children," the researchers wrote. "Individual-level risk of COVID-19 infection was reduced with vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 for adults and children in 2020 and 2021, and several states sustained other infection prevention efforts (eg, face mask requirements) into 2021." The findings were published this week in JAMA Network Open. Average state-level rates of parent-reported asthma symptoms decreased from 7.77% in 2018 to 2019 to 6.93% in 2020 to 2021. The absolute average change score was −0.85 percentage points.The average age-adjusted state COVID-19 death rate was 80.3 per 100,000 people in 2020, rising to 99.3 per 100,000 in 2021. The average state COVID-19 primary vaccination series completion rate was 72.3% through December 2021.Linear regression showed that, with each increase of 10 percentage points in COVID-19 vaccination coverage, the prevalence of childhood asthma symptoms fell by 0.36 percentage points. The asthma symptom rate was not tied to state COVID-19 death rates or face-covering mandates. State COVID-19 vaccination rates were inversely correlated with state COVID-19 death rates in 2021 but not 2020 and were positively correlated with face-covering requirements.
New ADHD diagnoses doubled during COVID-19, study suggests -New diagnoses of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in Finland doubled during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the largest increase in females aged 13 to 30 years, University of Helsinki researchers report in JAMA Network Open.The team analyzed nationwide data on new ADHD diagnoses, prevalence, and medication use among 5.6 million participants from registries in 2015, 2020), and 2022. The average participant age was 44.1 years, and 50.6% were female."Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by persistent inattention and/or hyperactivity-impulsivity that interfere with functioning or development already at childhood," the researchers wrote. "Individuals with ADHD are often challenged by executive dysfunction, including impairment in organizing, setting schedules, and emotion dysregulation such as lowered tolerance for frustration." The lifetime rate of ADHD rose 2.7-fold from 2015 to 2022, with a prevalence of 1.0% in 2015, 1.8% in 2020, and 2.8% in 2022. The highest lifetime rate (11.7%) was among males aged 13 to 20 years in 2022.From 2020 to 2022, new ADHD diagnoses doubled, from 238 per 100,000 to 477 per 100,000, with 9,482 incremental cases, an 18.6% increase. Females aged 13 to 20 years saw a 2.6-fold climb in new diagnoses, from 577 per 100,000 in 2020 to 1,488 per 100,000 in 2022. A triple increase was seen in women aged 21 to 30 years over those years, from 361 per 100,000 to 1,100 per 100,000."School environments may create a tendency to surface hyperactivity- and impulsivity-related symptoms more easily, whereas inattentive symptoms may be undetected," the authors wrote. "This may partly explain a potential accumulation of undiagnosed cases among girls with inattentive symptoms. Pandemic-induced life changes may have induced these underlying cases to surface among girls and young women."New ADHD diagnoses rose 2.9-fold among participants older than 55 years, from 5 per 100,000 to 13 per 100,000 in women and from 5 per 100,000 to 14 per 100,000 in men. While boys and men younger than 21 years didn't show a significant incremental increase in new diagnoses, boys younger than 13 years experienced the highest absolute incidence (1,745 per 100,000) in 2022.The lifetime rate of ADHD medication purchases was 0.6% in 2015 (55.6% of those with ADHD diagnoses), rising to 1.2% in 2020 (63.8%), and 1.7% in 2022 (61.4%). ADHD medication use climbed 2.1-fold from 2015 to 2020 and 1.4-fold from 2020 to 2022. Medication use was most common among boys younger than 13 years (66.23% of those with ADHD diagnoses in 2022) and least common among men older than 55 (48.15% of those with ADHD diagnoses in 2022). There was no incremental increase in ADHD medication use exceeding the increase in new diagnoses during COVID-19. "Pandemic lockdown imposed a sudden increase to attention and executive behavioral demands, coupled with a lack of daily structures and reduced possibilities for physical exercise," the researchers said. "These challenges in living conditions may have surfaced ADHD symptoms in individuals previously coping sufficiently in their daily life. Further studies are needed to explain the psychological, societal, and biological mechanisms underlying these observations."
Study shows abnormal immune-cell activity with long COVID -People who have long COVID symptoms—those that linger well after the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection—can display signs of abnormal immune-cell activation in many of their organs and tissues, as well as leftover SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the gut, for more than 2 years after infection, according to a small study this week in Science Translational Medicine.University of California, San Francisco researchers analyzed data on 24 people after their initial COVID-19 illness who underwent whole-body positron emission tomography (PET) imaging at time points ranging from 27 to 910 days (about 2 and a half years) after their acute COVID-19 cases. Eighteen of the patients had long COVID. The team used a tracer during PET imaging that selectively tags activated T cells and found that people with long COVID had certain tissues that were enriched for activated T cells in comparison with never-infected people who did not have long COVID (prepandemic controls). Furthermore, this T-cell activation correlated with symptoms of long COVID. For example, people who reported persistent lung problems had stronger signs of T-cell immune activation in their lungs.In addition, because the gut was one of the sites of activated T-cell enrichment, the scientists analyzed colorectal biopsies from five of the patients with long COVID. All five of these samples contained SARS-CoV-2 RNA.The authors wrote, "In this first-in-human T cell activation PET imaging study of individuals after SARS-CoV-2 infection, we found evidence of persistent T cell activation in a variety of tissues. In some individuals, this activity may persist for years after initial COVID-19 onset and be associated with systemic changes in immune activation as well as the presence of [long COVID] symptoms.""Overall, these observations challenge the paradigm that COVID-19 is a transient acute infection, building on recent observations in blood," the authors concluded.
Health officials probe measles cases in Seattle, Ohio --The public health department for Seattle and King County this week said it is investigating a measles case involving an adult who had recently traveled internationally and warned of possible exposures at multiple area locations that the patient visited before the illness was confirmed. In a statement, officials said the patient was at sites in Bellevue, Seattle, and Woodinville while infectious and that anyone who was at the locations when the person was there from June 27 to July 2 may have been exposed to the virus.In Ohio, the Butler County General Health District yesterday announced the confirmation of a measles case in a child younger than 1 year old who is a resident of the county.Officials said the child contracted measles during international travel, returning to the United States at a Chicago airport and returning to Ohio by car.Nationally, 159 measles cases from 23 jurisdictions have been reported in the United States this year, well above the 58 cases reported in 2023, according to the latest update on June 27 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.The bulk of this year's cases were linked to spread involving a migrant shelter in Chicago, though sporadic cases continue to be reported. Earlier this year, health officials warned of a heightened risk of measles spread tied to a rise in global activity.
New mpox strain in DRC raises global health concerns --Global health authorities are raising the alarm over a strain of mpox spreading through the Democratic Republic of Congo, with little known about the mutation other than it seems to spread more easily among humans. The mpox virus circulating in the North and South Kivu provinces of Congo is believed to be mutated from the lineage — clade I — that is endemic to Central Africa, distinct from the strain — descended from clade II — that impacted the U.S. and other Western countries in 2022 into 2023. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the risk associated with mpox in Congo remains high, with the recently identified mpox strain estimated to have emerged around September 2023. While more is still being learned, the virus does appear to have some worrying features. “The main difference and what we see or can confirm with epidemiology is there is a sustained human-to human transmission. It’s been going on now for months, and that’s really new as far as clade I goes,” said Sylvie Jonckheere, emerging infectious diseases adviser for Doctors Without Borders who is currently based in Goma, Congo. Clade I mpox is primarily spread from animals to humans as a zoonotic disease and is generally considered to have a higher mortality rate than clade II, causing death in up to 10 percent of infections. The WHO noted the clade I-descended strain has mutations that indicate “adaptation of the virus due to circulation among humans.” Unlike COVID-19, the mpox virus is not known for mutating rapidly. William Schaffner, spokesperson for the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases, said mpox is more akin to measles — for which one vaccine course is usually sufficient for an entire lifetime — in terms of how easily it mutates. “Certainly, a large splurge, a large outbreak of mpox such as we’re seeing now has not previously been recorded. There have been sporadic cases, of course, but nothing like this,” Schaffner said. “This is a very distinctive outbreak. It seems not to be a virus that mutates readily, but we’ve seen what I’m sure is a consequence of a mutation.” Unlike the form of mpox that spread through Western countries in 2022, the newer strain does not appear to have a strong link to sexual transmission or the social networks of men who have sex with men. According to Jonckheere, roughly 25 percent of cases are occurring among children. But the mpox virus circulating through eastern Congo does not appear to cause more severe illness. “It’s actually not more severe, the case fatality rate. So, the lethality of this disease for now in the eastern part of Congo is still rather low compared to what we saw in [Equatorial Guinea], historically or even recently,” Jonckheere said. Outlets such as the BBC have reported that this mpox mutation could be the “most dangerous strain yet.” Jonckheere said it depends on “how you define ‘dangerous,’” noting that the current lack of comprehensive information on this mutated strain warrants “a pinch of salt, maybe a bit more than a pinch.” “It seems that it’s likelier to be transmitted from a human to a human. It will follow humans wherever they go,” she said. “In this part of Congo, there’s a lot of movement between countries also, so it could be spread further afield. But if you look at case fatalities or mortality or these kind of things, it’s not more dangerous. So, it really depends on how you define it.” One factor that isn’t helping the outbreak is an inability to sufficiently socially distance. “There’s no option for distancing in any way. People are living, you know, seven in a four meter square shelter, literally,” said Jonckheere, who noted a lack of clean water, as well as sexual or transactional contact, as other factors worsening the mpox spread in the region. As of now, this mpox strain appears confined in Congo, though the region it’s located in borders both Burundi and Rwanda, providing opportunity for infections outside of the country.
Six nations report more polio, including wild-type cases in Pakistan - Pakistan reported three wild-type polio cases this week, bi\ring their total for this year to eight, topping the six cases it reported for all of 2023. The country is one of the few where WPV1 is still endemic. According to the latest weekly update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), two of the latest infections are from Balochistan province, which has been one of the country's hot spots, and one was from Sindh.More environmental detections of WPV1 were reported in five Pakistan provinces: Balochistan, Islamabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, and Punjab. In other polio developments, five countries reported more cases involving circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2), including the first of the year in Benin and Guinea. Benin had three cases in 2023, and its latest patient is from Atacora. Guinea also had three cases last year; its latest is from Mamou.Angola reported one more case, its third of 2024. The patient is from Moxico. Niger has a case from Zinder, putting its total for the year to three. Elsewhere, Indonesia reported its first three cases of the year, which were in South Papua, East Java, and Highland Papua provinces. In 2023, the country reported six cVDPV2 cases.
UV radiation damage leads to ribosome roadblocks, causing early skin cell death - In a recent study, researchers at Johns Hopkins Medicine suggest that the cell's messenger RNA (mRNA)—the major translator and regulator of genetic material—along with a critical protein called ZAK—spurs the cell's initial response to UV radiation damage and plays a critical role in whether the cell lives or dies. While UV radiation has long been known to damage DNA, it also damages mRNA, and the latest findings, published in Cell, indicate that mRNAs act as first responders in telling the cells how to manage the stress. "RNA is a canary in the coal mine. It's telling the cell, 'We've got major damage here and we need to do something,'" says Rachel Green, Ph.D., the corresponding author of the new study. ZAK is a key player in a process that identifies cellular damage by sensing the collisions of ribosomes, tiny macromolecular machines that help RNA translate the language of genes into the language of proteins. Collisions occur when ribosomes move along UV-damaged mRNAs and, unable to decode the damaged message, cause stalled ribosomes to get "rear-ended" by upstream ribosomes. Ribosome collisions activate ZAK, which triggers a cellular signaling program known as the ribotoxic stress response. ZAK then instigates a cascade of downstream events that decide the cell's fate. A more comprehensive understanding of how cellular life-and-death decisions are made upon encountering UV radiation could help investigators understand underlying causes of skin and other cancers. Companies developing drugs that target ribosomes may also find that ZAK could be a driver of cell death across cancer types, he says.
FDA bans soda additive BVO - The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has banned a soda additive starting next month over health concerns. The FDA said Tuesday that it revoked its regulation that allowed brominated vegetable oil (BVO) to be used in food because it “is no longer considered safe.” The agency pointed to studies conducted with the National Institutes of Health that “found the potential for adverse health effects in humans.” The new rule will go into effect Aug. 2. BVO is typically added to sodas to stop citrus flavoring from separating and floating to the top of the drink. The FDA initially proposed banning BVO from food last fall, pointing to studies that found the additive is toxic to the thyroid. The ingredient list may show “brominated vegetable oil” or a more specific oil, such as “brominated soybean oil.” The FDA noted that many beverage makers have reformulated their recipes to replace BVO with a different ingredient, adding that just a “few” beverages in the U.S. still contain the additive.
Multistate, cucumber-linked Salmonella outbreak rises to 449 cases --A multistate Salmonella outbreak linked to cucumbers has now sickened at least 449 people in 31 states and the District of Columbia, according to an update yesterday from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and untreated canal water may have played a role.The outbreak, with illness-onset dates ranging from March 11 to June 4, involves two Salmonella strains—Africana and Braederup. Of the 449 case-patients, 234 have been infected with SalmonellaAfricana and 215 with the newly added SalmonellaBraederup strain. To date, 125 people have been hospitalized, but no deaths have been reported. The two outbreak strains were initially being investigated separately, but the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) combined the investigations when it became clear that they shared several similarities, including the demographics of the ill people and the food they reported eating prior to their illnesses. Epidemiologic, trace-back, and laboratory data have identified cucumbers as the source of the outbreaks. Of the 188 people interviewed by state and local public health officials, 129 (69%) reported eating cucumbers in the week before getting ill. A trace-back investigation by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) identified Bedner Growers, Inc., in Florida as a supplier of some of the cucumbers involved in the outbreak. Analysis of untreated canal water at the grower identified Salmonella Braederup, and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) determined that it was the same strain that has sickened people. Cucumbers from Bedner Growers are no longer in season and any sold previously are no longer on shelves.While most people infected with Salmonella recover within a week without treatment, more severe cases may require antibiotics. WGS analysis of bacteria from 214 case-patients found no predicted antibiotic resistance, while bacteria from 235 people predicted resistance to one or more of the following antibiotics: amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, ampicillin, azithromycin, cefotoxin, ceftiofur, ceftriaxone, ciprofloxacin, fosfomycin, and tetracycline.The CDC says the number of sick people in the outbreak is likely much higher than the number reported, and that the outbreak may not be limited to the states with known illnesses.
Delta diverts flight after serving spoiled food --A Delta Air Lines flight was diverted Wednesday after passengers were served spoiled food, the airline said.The redeye flight from Detroit to Amsterdam was diverted to New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport, taking off around 11 p.m. Tuesday and landing in New York at 4 a.m.The flight was diverted “after reports that a portion of the Main Cabin in-flight meal service were spoiled,” a Delta spokesperson said in a statement to The Hill.According to the New York Fire Department, emergency medical responders met the flight at the airport and treated 12 passengers, The Associated Press reported.USA Today reported that the passengers treated were evaluated but refused medical attention or transportation to a hospital.The company apologized for the incident and said it would be investigating it.“This is not the service Delta is known for and we sincerely apologize to our customers for the inconvenience and delay in their travels,” the spokesperson said.It’s not known how many of the 277 total passengers ate the food.The spokesperson said customers have been booked on alternate Wednesday flights out of JFK and were offered hotel rooms.
Salmonella outbreak from backyard poultry expands to 38 states - In a new update on a multistate Salmonella outbreak linked to backyard poultry—first announced in May—the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported 86 more illnesses and 9 more affected states, raising the national total to 195 cases from 38 states. Initially, outbreak involved five Salmonella serotypes: Altona, Indiana, Infantis, Mbandaka, and Typhimurium. The CDC said two more have been implicated in the illnesses—Cerro and Johannesburg. Of information based on 136 patients, 50 were hospitalized. No deaths have been reported. Just over 40% of patients are younger than 5 years old. The latest illness onset is May 30. The CDC warned that the outbreak total is likely much higher and that illnesses probably aren't limited to the states with known cases, given that most people aren't tested and recover without medical care. Of 45 people with information available, 36 had bought or obtained poultry before they became ill. People got the birds from multiple retail stores and directly from hatcheries. Investigators from Minnesota, Ohio, and Utah collected samples from inside boxes used to ship the poultry from hatcheries to retail stores, which included box liner and bedding. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) found that Salmonella Altona, Cerro, and Mbandaka in the samples matched strains from some of the sick patients. WGS analysis of 176 patient samples and 13 environmental samples found no predicted resistance, but 14 patient samples had predicted resistance to one or more antibiotics: amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, ampicillin, cefoxitin, ceftiofur, ceftriaxone, chloramphenicol, ciprofloxacin, gentamicin, kanamycin, streptomycin, sulfisoxazole, and tetracycline. Backyard poultry have been tied to several other Salmonella outbreaks over the past several years. The CDC urged poultry owners to take precautions, such as washing hands with soap and water after touching backyard poultry and supervising children around backyard poultry, especially young ones who are more likely to get sick.
More evidence pasteurization inactivates H5N1 avian flu virus in milk - Researchers with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) and US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), in a new preprint study, show that the H5N1 avian flu virus is inactivated through traditional pasteurization used in commercial milk processing.In describing the findings, the FDA said the study compliments an initial study the agency did this spring testing 297 samples of commercial dairy products—all found to be negative for viable (live) highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus. "The results of the study announced today strongly indicate that the virus is much more sensitive to heat treatment with commercial pasteurization equipment than other studies might suggest," said Stephen Walker, PhD, a consumer safety officer at the FDA's Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition (CFSAN), in an FDA press release.The results of the study announced today strongly indicate that the virus is much more sensitive to heat treatment with commercial pasteurization equipment than other studies might suggest. The experiments used 275 raw milk samples obtained from multiple farms in four states currently experiencing H5N1 outbreaks among dairy cattle. Of the 275 samples, 158 were positive for viral fragments. Of those, 39 had infectious virus at an average of 3,000 virus particles per milliliter.The samples were then subjected to "high-temperature-short-time" (HTST) or "flash pasteurization," the most commonly used US pasteurization technique. It consists of heating the milk to 161°F (72°C) for 15 seconds in a continuous flow. The researchers also contaminated some raw milk samples with a higher concentration of virus, 5 million virus particles per milliliter.HTST eliminated the virus in all samples tested. In related news, another new preprint study from researchers at Ohio State University, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, and the University of Illinois shows H5N1 avian flu RNA, but not live virus, in pasteurized retail milk.The study found evidence of H5N1 viral nucleic acid in 36.3% of samples (61 of 168) from pasteurized milk bought from retail stores across the United States."None of the retail milk samples included in this study contained viable, infectious A(H5N1) virus per in vitro and in vivo assays, which provides evidence that pasteurization is sufficient for inactivation of pathogens in the commercial milk supply," the authors wrote. Neither preprint study has been peer-reviewed.
CDC confirms 4th human case of H5N1 avian flu as more dairy herds in Colorado hit -Today the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed the fourth human case of highly pathogenic avian flu in the United States this year and the first in Colorado, as the state reported more infected dairy cows. Previous human cases were in Texas (one) and Michigan (two).In a press release emailed to journalists, the CDC said the Colorado patient is a dairy worker who was being monitoredbecause of work exposure to H5N1 virus-infected cattle. "The person reported eye symptoms only, received oseltamivir [Tamiflu] treatment, and has recovered," the CDC said. "Based on the information available at this time, this infection does not change CDC's current H5N1 bird flu human health risk assessment for the U.S. general public, which the agency considers to be low."The first two agricultural workers infected in the United States, in Texas and Michigan this spring, also reported eye symptoms. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has added two more H5N1 avian flu dairy herd outbreaks to its confirmed list, both in Colorado, raising its total to 139 affected herds from 12 states.Colorado has had the most affected herds in the past 30 days, with 23 herds affected, APHIS said.APHIS also reported H5N1 in 2 more domestic cats since our last report, 1 each in Michigan and Colorado, raising the total to 30 infected cats. A WOAH (World Organization for Animal Health) notification on the Colorado cat, which is from Adams County, says the cat was exhibiting acute respiratory signs but wasn't associated with any known H5N1-affected cattle or poultry premises.As more dairy herds have been infected with highly pathogenic avian flu, researchers from the Food and Drug Administration have continued to sample commercial pasteurized milk and conduct experiments that reassure consumers that the pasteurization process used in the United States inactivates H5N1. It is not yet known if drinking raw milk from an infected cow could pass H5N1 to humans, but mouse studies suggest it is possible.A new survey from the Annenberg Public Policy Center, however, shows that less than half of US adults know that drinking raw (unpasteurized) milk is riskier than drinking pasteurized milk. The survey included 1,031 adults polled from June 7 to June 10. While only 4% of Americans report regularly consuming raw milk products, selling such products is legal in 30 states.One in five Americans (20%) said they are not sure if pasteurization can kill harmful bacteria and viruses. And 4% of those polls said pasteurization is simply not effective in doing so.In the poll, over half of the respondents (54%) think that drinking raw milk is either safer (9%) or just as safe (15%) or are unsure (30%) whether it is more or less safe than drinking pasteurized milk. Pasteurization does not lower the nutritional value of milk, but 16% polled believe that it does destroy nutrients, and 41% aren't sure.Outside of H5N1, raw milk is estimated to cause 840 times more illnesses and 45 times more hospitalizations than pasteurized products, according to the Annenberg Center.
4th human case of bird flu linked to dairy cow outbreak: CDC - The fourth human case of bird flu linked to the current dairy cow outbreak was confirmed on Wednesday in a dairy worker in Colorado, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Previously, one human case had been reported in Texas and two human cases reported in Michigan. As with the previous cases, the patient is a dairy farm worker who came into contact with cows that tested positive for the H5N1 strain of bird flu, or avian influenza. The worker was previously being monitored because of their exposure to infected cattle and reported symptoms to state health officials. Testing results were inconclusive at the state level, but specimens forwarded to the CDC for additional testing were positive for influenza A, the federal health agency said. The patient reported eye symptoms only. They received treatment with oseltamivir, an antiviral drug used to treat influenza, and have since recovered. The CDC said the risk to the general public remains low, but advises people to avoid close, long or unprotected exposures to sick or dead animals. People are also advised to avoid unprotected exposure to animal excrement, litter, unpasteurized milk or materials that have been touched by -- or close to -- animals with suspected or confirmed bird flu.In early March, the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a bird flu strain that had sickened millions of birds across the U.S. was identified in several mammals this year.A few weeks later, federal and state public health officials said they were investigating an illness among primarily older dairy cows in Kansas, New Mexico and Texas and causing symptoms including decreased lactation and low appetite.The USDA said in a statement at the time that "there is no concern about the safety of the commercial milk supply or that this circumstance poses a risk to consumer health."Currently, Colorado is reporting more cases of bird flu in livestock than any other state with 23 livestock herds affected in the last 30 days as of July 1, according to a USDA interactive dashboard.In late April, reports emerged that bird flu fragments had been found in samples of pasteurized milk. However, the fragments are inactive remnants of the virus and cannot cause infection.Federal agencies maintain the U.S. commercial milk supply remains safe because milk is pasteurized and dairy farmers are required to dispose of any milk from sick cows, so it does not enter the supply.In May, the CDC said in a summary that it is preparing for the "possibility of increased risk to human health" from bird flu as part of the federal government's preparedness efforts, including filling doses of bird flu vaccine into vials to shore up the national stockpile.
McDonald’s Australia cuts breakfast hours due to bird flu -Australian fans of a late morning McDonald's breakfast are having to wake up earlier.The fast food giant has temporarily shortened the hours of its breakfast service in the country by 90 minutes due to an egg shortage caused by a bird flu outbreak.It is currently serving its full breakfast menu only until 10:30am, instead of the usual midday."Like many retailers, we are carefully managing supply of eggs due to the current industry challenges," McDonald's Australia said in a statement sent to the BBC."We’re continuing to work closely with our network of Aussie farmers, producers, and suppliers, as the industry comes together to manage this challenge."Several strains of bird flu have been detected in 11 poultry facilities across southeast Australia in the past two months.Authorities have said they have the situation under control."Consumers can expect to see some empty shelves in the short-term, however, supplies are being re-directed to areas with short supply," the Australian government said."Consumers should refrain from purchasing more eggs than required."Bird flu has affected fewer than 10% of Australia's egg laying hens but, some businesses have imposed limits on how many eggs people can buy.The outbreaks have led to the culling of about 1.5m chickens in Australia.So far, none of the strains detected have been the H5N1 variant of bird flu. H5N1 has spread through bird and mammal populations globally, infecting billions of animals and a small number of humans.
Quick takes: Dengue in Florida Keys, trial of Nipah monoclonal antibody | CIDRAP
- Two more locally acquired dengue cases have been reported in the Florida Keys (Monroe County), prompting an alert from local officials. "Dengue fever is not contagious but is transmitted by the bite of an infected Aedes aegypti mosquito," Florida Health said. In its latest weekly vector-borne illness report, Florida Health notes the two cases, and says the number of local cases is now at 10 from 4 countiessince the first of the year.
- The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) yesterday announced the launch of a human clinical trial in India and Bangladesh to assess a monoclonal antibody treatment against Nipah virus infection. Currently, there are no drugs or vaccines for managing the virus. Yesterday CIDRAP published an updated roadmap on research and development strategies to combat the virus, which kills up to 75% of infected people. "A monoclonal antibody capable of offering immediate protection for caregivers and others at risk of infection would be an important addition to our armamentarium against Nipah virus, said CEPI CEO Richard Hatchett, MD.
Childhood obesity tied to double the risk of dengue hospitalization -- Obesity in children is associated with double the risk of hospitalization for dengue virus infection, according to a study published in PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases.The sero-surveillance study is based on a cohort of 4,782 school children from 10 to 18 years old in Sri Lanka from September 2022 to March 2023. Dengue is endemic in Sri Lanka. During the study period, 182 children (15.8%) were hospitalized for dengue. The authors found that, of the seropositive children with body mass indexes (BMIs) higher than the 97th percentile, 12 of 66 (18.2%) were hospitalized, compared to 103 of 1,086 children (9.5%) with a BMI in the 96th percentile or less. Children with the higher BMIs were twice as likely to be hospitalized for dengue than children with lower BMIs, with an odds ratio [OR] of 2.1 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 3.9). Girls were also at a greater risk of hospitalization than were boys. "Obesity is associated with an increase in risk of severe disease due to many other infections such as influenza and COVID-19," the authors wrote. "While public education programs have focused on the importance of reducing obesity to prevent occurrence of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases and cancer, there has been limited focus on the impact of obesity on many infectious diseases." The authors said the findings confirm other studies on the links among obesity, diabetes, and severe dengue. As dengue cases rise across much of the globe and BMIs also increase, the authors said it would be crucial to further investigate the risk of hospitalization due to obesity.
Invasive brown widow spiders found to host novel bacteria related to chlamydia --Invasive brown widow spiders across three continents were highly infected with a single strain of Rhabdochlamydia, a bacterium that is related to major pathogens of humans and animals, including chlamydia. A bite from these spiders, however, will not infect people with chlamydia.Up until now, Rhabdochlamydia was found in only a few organisms—a tick, an isopod, a cockroach, and one other spider—and even then, was a rare occurrence in all these organisms.Dr. Monica Mowery and colleagues at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev comparedmicrobial communities in populations of brown widow spiders collected in South Africa (the likely native range of the spider) and invasive populations in Israel and the United States. The overwhelmingly predominant bacteria, Rhabdochlamydia, was found in 86% of spiders surveyed. It was also found in the female spider's eggs, indicating that mother spiders transmit the bacteria to their offspring. The high prevalence of Rhabdochlamydia in all spider populations tested suggests it may have an important functional role and could contribute to the spider's invasion success. "Our results suggest that this dominant, widely prevalent chlamydial bacteria has an important role in the invasive brown widow spider," explained Dr. Mowery, an assistant professor at the City University of New York and a former post-doctoral researcher at BGU. The study was published recently in Scientific Reports.
Two new species of Psilocybe mushrooms discovered in southern Africa --Two new species of psychoactive mushrooms in the genus Psilocybe have been described from southern Africa, bringing the list to six known species indigenous to Africa. Psilocybe species are among the most well-known and well-studied species of psychoactive mushrooms in the world, with around 140 described species.In a paper published in the journal Mycologia this week, researchers from Stellenbosch University (SU) and citizen mycologists describe the two new species as Psilocybe ingeli and Psilocybe maluti.Psilocybe ingeli was first found in 2023 growing in pastureland in KwaZulu-Natal by Talan Moult, a self-taught citizen mycologist. Psilocybe maluti was first found on a Free State small holding in 2021 by Daniella Mulder, who sent photos of the mushrooms for identification to Andrew Killian, one of South Africa's leading citizen mycologists, based in Somerset West.
Deer contracts CWD at second Sutton County, Texas, deer-breeding facility - A 2-year-old white-tailed doe in a second Sutton County, Texas, deer-breeding facility has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) announced late last week.The infection was found during mandatory postmortem CWD surveillance testing. Sutton County is located in west central Texas.The first Sutton County case was discovered in a deer-breeding facility in May 2023. That case was detected in a 4-year-old white-tailed buck tested for CWD before transfer to a registered release site.Since the first Texas CWD detection in 2012, the fatal neurologic disease has been found in captive and free-ranging cervids such as deer, mule deer, red deer, and elk, the TPWD said.CWD, which is caused by misfolded proteins called prions, poses an ongoing threat to cervids because it can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but officials recommend not eating meat from a sick animal and using precautions when field-dressing or butchering cervids.
The world's fourth mass coral bleaching is underway, but well-connected reefs may have a better chance to recover - The world's coral reefs are like underwater cities, bustling with all kinds of fish and sea animals. Coral reefs cover less than 1% of the ocean, but they supportan estimated 25% of all marine species, including many important fish species. The economic value of the services that these complex ecosystems provide is estimated at over US$3.4 billion yearly just in the U.S. Today, rising ocean temperatures threaten many reefs' survival. When ocean waters become too warm for too long, corals expel the colorful symbiotic algae, called zooxanthellae, that live in their tissues—a process called coral bleaching. These algae provide the corals with food, so bleached corals are vulnerable to starvation and disease and may die if the water does not cool quickly enough. With global ocean heat at record levels, scientists have confirmed that a global coral bleaching event is underway. Since the beginning of 2023, corals have been dying in the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic oceans, both north and south of the equator. The current bleaching event in the wider Caribbean region is longer and more severe than any previous bleaching episode recorded since the first global one in 1998. I study large-scale climate and ocean dynamics and am analyzing how biological connections between coral reefs—sometimes extending over great distances—may help reefs recover from heat stress. The current mass coral bleaching event is the fourth such episode since 1998. Given how quickly ocean temperatures are warming, scientists are working to develop response strategies. These include making corals more heat-tolerant; restoring damaged areas with healthy corals; relocating coral nurseries to cooler areas; breeding "super corals" that are more resistant to these stresses; and enhancing natural chemical signals and sound cues to attract larval corals and fish to damaged reefs. Many species of fish found on coral reefs play valuable roles in keeping these communities healthy. For example, seaweeds compete with corals for space and light, and often will take over reefs after bleaching episodes. Corals remain healthier and recover faster if they are surrounded by fish that eat different types of seaweed, such as parrotfish, surgeonfish and rabbitfish. Reflecting their role, these species often are referred to collectively as grazers. Sea cucumbers—leathery bottom-dwellers, distantly related to starfish and urchins—also are important reef partners. They feed on bacteria and other organic materials in ocean sediments, cleaning up the area around reefs. My Georgia Tech colleague Mark Hay recently published a study which showed that removing sea cucumbers from reef communities led to an increase in organic waste materials and a 15-fold rise in coral deaths. Protecting sea cucumbers, which are overharvested as a food source, could help keep coral reefs healthy. Coral reefs are not isolated outposts. When fish and corals spawn, they release millions of larvae that drift on currents and are exchanged across reefs through mixing and transport processes. These exchanges make up the connectivity of coral reefs. Some reefs supply larvae to many others. Other reefs are more isolated, so scientists may need to artificially introduce larvae to help the reefs recover from bleaching and other threats.
Harmful Algal Bloom advisory issued for Conesus Lake as holiday weekend arrives --The Livingston County Department of Health has issued a lake-wide Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) advisory for Conesus Lake. The advisory, first issued on June 21 and upgraded on June 26, remains in effect as of July 2. HABs, which can turn the water green and form thick scums, are harmful to people and animals.People and animals should avoid contact with the water where blooms are present. The public water supply remains safe for drinking. Exposure to HABs can cause symptoms like diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, skin irritation, and breathing difficulties.To stay safe, avoid swimming, boating, or fishing near HABs, don’t eat fish from affected waters, and rinse with clean water if exposed. Children and pets are especially vulnerable, so keep them away from suspect areas. Report any symptoms to your doctor.
Gov. Pritzker signs federal and state agreement to protect Lake Michigan from invasive carp --After several months of back and forth, officials announced on July 1st that Illinois had signed a partnership agreement that will allow construction of the $1.15 billion Brandon Road Interbasin Project to begin with significant federal funding. The effort, decades in the making, will become the last, multi-pronged line of defense to stop invasive silver and bighead carp from making it into Lake Michigan, where they pose a threat to Great Lakes ecosystems and billion-dollar fishing and boating industries. The announcement comes after weeks of experts and advocates urging Gov. J.B. Pritzker to adhere to a June 30 deadline so that $274 million in federal funds wouldn't be lost, and construction workers could take advantage of an upcoming scheduled closure of the lock and dam in Joliet. Any more delays, they said, could have resulted in irreversible disaster if carp continued upstream in Illinois waterways and breached past electric barriers in Romeoville. If the agreement wasn't signed, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Rock Island District—which oversees the project—wouldn't have been able to continue allocating resources to pre-construction engineering and design. "Protecting the Great Lakes has always been and will always be a priority for the State of Illinois and after many years of this project eluding multiple administrations," Pritzker said in a news release. "Protecting the Great Lakes is not an undertaking that any one state or city can tackle alone, and I'm thrilled that we were able to forge a path that protects both the Great Lakes and ensures Illinois taxpayers do not shoulder a disproportionate share of the burden." The project has been awaiting approval from Illinois for a year, after the Michigan legislature authorized $64 million in June 2023 to help finance it. Those funds, plus $50 million from Illinois will account for the project's required $114 million non-federal cost share.
How climate change is affecting where species live --As the climate warms, many species are on the move, raising new challenges for policy-makers around the world. Shifts in the ranges of mosquitoes and disease-bearing ticks and bats are introducing illnesses such as malaria and Lyme disease into regions where health care systems are unprepared. Movements of commercially important fish from one jurisdiction to another are shifting job opportunities and causing trade disputes. To help understand and anticipate when species will shift their ranges, an international team led by McGill University researchers has identified factors that have prompted or constrained shifts in the habitats of thousands of species around the world in recent decades.McGill Ph.D. student Jake Lawlor, lead author of a study published recently inNature Reviews Earth and Environment, explains, "Most systems in which humans use or interact with other species were built under the assumption that species would stay in place. Integrating range shifts that have already occurred, or might occur in future, into resource-management and conservation plans will be necessary as the effects of climate change continue to be felt."The researchers found that climate warming was a good basic predictor for the movements of most of the 26,000 species tracked in BioShifts, a global database. Indeed, 59% of species have shifted toward cooler environments.In a substantial percentage of cases, however, the picture isn't as clear. In 41% of cases, species either failed to move at all, or moved toward new environments that were not consistent with warming temperatures. This inconsistency suggests temperature alone doesn't fully explain movements.To better understand why some species are not shifting as expected, the researchers tried to find explanations in other species-specific or environment-specific factors."Understanding these temperature-inconsistent shifts will be especially important in helping researchers create models that predict when warming is likely to lead to range shifts, as well as when it won't," says Lawlor."For example, the type of life cycle of a particular species, or their sensitivity to warming, or the features of the landscape might help us to predict how likely the species in those habitats are to shift, and even the routes they might take." The researchers warn that the existing data on range shifts has been concentrated in Europe and North America, has been collected unevenly across plant and animal groups, and largely excludes marine species. They suggest this means there is a need for caution about the result. For example, patterns seen where there are four seasons, such as in Europe and North America, may not apply to those where there are only wet and dry seasons, and species with different dispersal abilities (the ability to re-establish in new location) and growth rates are expected to respond differently.
Study reveals fireworks' impact on air quality - As Independence Day approaches, Utahns are preparing to celebrate the nation's birth with dazzling displays of light and color. However, a new BYU study published in Applied Geochemistry warns that these festivities come with an often-overlooked hazard: increased air pollution. The study, led by BYU geology professor Greg Carling, reveals alarming details about the particulate matter that is released into the air when fireworks explode. Particulate matter is a mixture of microscopic pieces of dust, trace metals, smoke, liquid droplets and other pollutants. Small particles such as PM2.5 pose the greatest threat to human health because they are easily inhaled and can get deep into the lungs. Carling's research notes that the largest contributors of particulate matter along the Wasatch Front are mineral dust, winter inversion and Utah's beloved fireworks. "We know we're breathing in these particles that are unhealthy during firework events, dust storms, or winter inversions," said Carling. "But what's actually in the particulate matter? No one really knew before this study." Over two years, Carling and students monitored air samplers with filters collecting various sizes of particulate matter, including the notorious health hazard PM2.5. They measured the concentration of trace metals in particulate matter over time. Their findings show that metal pollution in particulate matter peaks during January and July, coinciding with winter inversions and summer fireworks. Fireworks emit high levels of barium and copper, while arsenic, cadmium, lead, and thallium were prevalent in the inversion smog. Prolonged exposure to these substances can cause various health problems, ranging from asthma to cardiovascular disease. Despite strict drinking water standards in Utah, similar air quality standards for these metals do not currently exist. Carling emphasized that any concentration of particulate matter is hazardous to human health and the environment. "Metals are really good at moving around from the atmosphere into the soil, into the water and into our food," warned Carling. "And they're persistent, meaning that they don't really go away—they just keep cycling through the system."
California braces for record-breaking heat wave with temperatures over 43 °C (110 °F) - California is bracing for a potentially record-breaking heat wave during the first week of July, with temperatures expected to soar past 43 °C (110 °F) in the hottest areas. The intense heat will impact a significant portion of the state, including the Sacramento Valley, San Joaquin Valley, and parts of Southern California, Nevada, and northwestern Arizona. Starting over the weekend and gradually intensifying, a heat dome will bring dangerously high temperatures to these regions. The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued an Excessive Heat Warning for the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys, and areas away from the coast from the San Francisco Bay Area through Central California, from July 2, through July 6. This warning includes Independence Day. Excessive Heat Warnings have also been issued for interior sections of Southern California, much of southern Nevada, and far northwestern Arizona. These warnings are set to begin on July 3 or 4 and will last through late July 8. Poor air quality is also a concern, as pollutants like ozone can accumulate in the stagnant air. The forecast predicts that some of California’s most densely populated areas will avoid the extreme heat. Cities closer to the coast, such as Oakland and San Francisco, will benefit from the cooling influence of Pacific waters, keeping afternoon temperatures between 27 °C and 32 °C (81 °F and 90 °F). Fresno, California, is expected to be one of the hottest cities, with temperatures potentially reaching or exceeding 43 °C (110 °F) for several consecutive days. “The forecast high of 46 °C (115 °F) in Fresno on July 6 would tie the record high from July 8, 1905,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Scott Homan said. According to the AccuWeather HeatWave Counter and Severity Index, which considers the length and intensity of heat waves in a historical context, this impending heat wave is anticipated to be significantly worse than the two heat waves in Fresno in 2023, and the one in September 2022, when temperatures climbed above 40 °C (105 °F) for nine consecutive days. Death Valley, known for its extreme heat, holds the world record for the highest temperature ever recorded at 57 °C (134 °F), set on July 10, 1913. Temperatures could approach 54 °C (130 °F) near the end of the week, a benchmark rarely achieved in this location. Since record-keeping began in the early 1900s, the mercury has climbed to 54 °C (130 °F) only a few times: in 1913, 2020, and 2021. According to NOAA, heat is the leading cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States, and experts are urging Californians to take precautions during this heat wave.
Record-breaking heat wave hits 150 million in the US - Dangerous summer heat is unfolding across sections of the US over the July 4th holiday weekend with more than 150 million people across 21 states facing record-breaking temperatures. In San Francisco, the National Weather Service said, “It cannot be stressed enough that this is an exceptionally dangerous and lethal situation.” The weather service warned about the impact of temperatures in California, which are expected to be between 100 to 120 F (38 to 49 C), saying, “It may not seem so if you live near the coast, but an event of this scale, magnitude, and longevity will likely rival anything we’ve seen in the last 18 years for inland areas.” The oppressive heat wave in the Western US is “extremely dangerous and potentially deadly,” according to a NWS warning. Heat advisories were in effect on Friday for Washington, Oregon, Arizona and Nevada, where triple-digit temperatures were forecast. “Confidence is increasing that this potentially historic heat wave will last several days,” the Portland NWS warned, adding that the risk of heat-related illness will increase significantly. In San Jose, California, a homeless man died Tuesday due to the extreme heat. The man was 69, according to information from the Santa Clara Medical Examiner’s Office. In a post on Twitter/X, Matt Mahan, the mayor of San Jose, touted the city’s “cooling centers” and said, “it’s not compassionate to leave people suffering in unmanaged, unsheltered and unsafe conditions.” San Jose is among the most unequal cities in the US. Along with the other existential threats to society—such as the coronavirus pandemic or the danger of nuclear annihilation—the catastrophic impacts of climate change-fueled heat waves are rooted in the class divisions within capitalist society. As the center of Silicon Valley, .001 percent of San Jose households have $100 billion in wealth. This is 12 times more than half of the entire population of 2 million people in the region. The number of homeless in the area is the fourth highest in the US and is estimated at approximately 10,000 people. A 10-year-old boy also died in Arizona on Tuesday after experiencing a heat-related emergency while hiking with family in South Mountain Park and Preserve, according to the Phoenix Police Department. Police identified the boy on Friday as Cortinez Logan, originally from Missouri, who was rescued on the trail by fire crews and a police helicopter where temperatures had reached 113 °F (45 °C), according to the NWS. Logan was airlifted to a local hospital in critical condition where he died due to a “medical event.” The cities of San Rafael and Livermore in California hit all-time high temperatures on Wednesday, registering 100 and 110 °F (38 and 43 °C) respectively. An all-time high of 124 °F (51 °C) was reached in Palm Springs on Friday, the National Weather Service confirmed. Meanwhile, the unprecedented temperatures are contributing to fires including the Thompson Fire in Northern California which has grown to over 3,000 acres and destroyed numerous structures. Forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said much of the West Coast, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast would experience temperatures above 100 °F (38 °C). The temperatures in 92 major US cities are expected to reach dangerous levels on Saturday and Sunday. The New York Times published a table that showed Saturday temperatures for New Orleans, Louisiana (109 °F); Baton Rouge, Louisiana (109 °F); Mobile, Alabama (109 °F); Jackson, Mississippi (99 °F); Hattiesburg, Mississippi (106 °F); Gilbert, Arizona (110 °F); Mesa, Arizona (109 °F); Houston, Texas (109 °F); Chesapeake, Virginia (109 °F); and Richmond, Virginia (106 °F). The heat dome responsible for the extreme temperatures is forecast to reach near-record strength and remain stationary over California and the Southwestern United States for seven to 10 days.
Thousands evacuate in California as Thompson Fire rapidly spreads - Thousands evacuate as the Thompson Fire spreads in California july 2024 On July 3, 2024, California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in response to the destructive Thompson Fire near Oroville in Butte County. The fire began on July 2 and has rapidly spread to approximately 1 619 ha (4 000 acres), prompting evacuation orders and mobilization of firefighting resources. The Thompson Fire in Butte County has prompted a state of emergency and widespread evacuations. Governor Gavin Newsom declared the emergency on July 3, allowing the state to secure a Fire Management Assistance Grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). This grant could cover up to 75% of firefighting costs through federal funding. The California Office of Emergency Services has deployed additional resources to combat the fire, which threatens important infrastructure, including water and power supplies for the Oroville area. Both Butte County and the City of Oroville have declared local emergencies. About 13 000 people in Butte County, including northeastern parts of Oroville, were ordered to evacuate. Butte County officials are distributing free N-95 respirator masks at the Department of Employment and Social Services to assist residents with poor air quality. A temporary fireworks ban has been enforced in Oroville, and the Fourth of July fireworks show has been canceled by the California Parks Department. The Thompson Fire began on July 2 near Cherokee Road and Thompson Flat Cemetery and has already burned approximately 1 619 ha (4 000 acres), with only 7% containment. Cal Fire reported eight firefighter injuries. Multiple structures have been damaged or destroyed. The cause of the fire is still under investigation. Evacuation orders have impacted around 28 000 people from downtown Oroville east to Kelly Ridge and north past Cannon Reservoir. Specific zones under mandatory evacuation include 532-536, 700-716, 730, 731, 800, 801, 807-810, 818, 819, 851, 953, 954, 958, 959, 960, and 965. Zones 806, 817, 828, and 965A have been downgraded to evacuation warnings. Evacuation shelters are operational at the Oroville Church of the Nazarene at 2238 Monte Vista Ave. and the Gridley Fairgrounds at 199 E Hazel St. in Gridley. Facilities for small and large animals are set up at 2279 Del Oro Ave. and Camelot Equestrian Park at 1985 Clark Road in Oroville, respectively. The fire coincides with an “exceptionally dangerous and lethal” heatwave affecting the Western United States, further exacerbating wildfire risks. Governor Newsom’s proclamation cited “continued high temperatures throughout the day and night, dry conditions, and strong winds” as factors that are intensifying the fire. Arielle Penick, 24, who previously evacuated from Paradise during the 2018 Camp Fire, was among those fleeing the Thompson Fire. Penick, currently pregnant, evacuated with her family, bringing essentials for her children and pets. “We just see a pummel of smoke in the sky. And the PTSD from the Camp Fire kicked in instantly, especially with how big the cloud of smoke was,” Penick said. Over 1 400 firefighters are fighting the fire, supported by eight helicopters and air tankers. Cal Fire reported four firefighter injuries and more than 1 000 personnel on the ground. The fire has led to power outages as Pacific Gas & Electric shut off powerlines, including the Hyatt Powerplant facility, which is now offline. Temperatures in Oroville are expected to soar to record highs. Red flag warnings are in effect, and temperatures could reach up to 45 °C (113 °F), worsening the situation. The heat began July 2 across parts of the West, where numerous daily high-temperature records were tied or broken:
- Ukiah, California: 43 °C (110 °F) (tied record set in 1924 and 2013)
- Concord Airport, California: 42 °C (107 °F) (old record 40 °C [104 °F], set in 2001)
- Santa Rosa Airport, California: 41 °C (106 °F) (old record 38 °C [101 °F], set in 2001)
- Napa Airport, California: 39 °C (102 °F) (old record 38 °C [101 °F], set in 2001)
- San Jose, California: 39 °C (102 °F) (tied record, set in 1970)
Some cities could swelter through multiple days of temperatures well above 38 °C (100 °F) with some, including Sacramento, potentially seeing a full week of highs over 40 °C (105 °F). California is not the only state suffering from the heat. Over 150 million people across 22 states, particularly in the Mid-South and West, are under heat alerts. The National Weather Service in San Francisco described the heatwave as “exceptionally dangerous and lethal.”
Intense heat wave brings new California fires; Palm Springs breaks all-time heat record at 124 degrees - Los Angeles Times --A dangerous heat wave broiling California fueled new fires in the state this week, with Palm Springs recording an all-time high of 124 degrees.Forecasters say the Palm Springs temperature beat the previous high of 123 degrees recorded in 2021, 1995 and 1993. Broiling temperatures roasted communities across California, with more extreme heat expected through next week.Amid the scorching temperatures, a series of blazes erupted Friday — though firefighters gained some control over one that began on the Fourth of July and was threatening the town of Mariposa outside Yosemite National Park.The French fire started near French Camp Road at Highway 49 just northwest of Mariposa after 6:30 p.m. Thursday and had grown to 908 acres by Friday evening, triggering mandatory evacuations for about 300 residents and the closure of State Route 140 leading into Yosemite. As of late Friday, the highway had reopened and some of the evacuation orders had been removed.Strong winds, triple-digit heat and unusually warm overnight temperatures are creating conditions experts say is priming much of the state’s landscape to burn.“These conditions are so hot anything that can create a spark can create a fire that can grow real fast,” said Ryan Kittell, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard.Heavy vegetation, low humidity and gusty winds helped the French fire spread quickly throughout Thursday evening, said Jamie Williams, spokesperson with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, pushing across a mountain east of the community of Mariposa.But dozers and fire crews constructed a fire line around the eastern side of Mariposa, giving firefighters some space to gain the upper hand on the flames. The efforts prevented the fire from spreading into the town, Williams said.“The weather is still very hot and dry but the winds were a lot more calm than they were,” Williams said Friday evening. “I believe that they’re making good progress.”By Friday evening, the fire was 20% contained. Four buildings had been destroyed and three people were injured.
Evacuation orders issued for latest California wildfire amid scorching heat wave - ABC News -Evacuation orders have been issued due to a wildfire in central California, the latest among more than a dozen blazes burning in the state amid a scorching heat wave.The French Fire near Yosemite National Park in Mariposa County has burned more than 900 acres since erupting Thursday and was 20% contained as of Friday evening, according to fire officials.Residents of parts of Mariposa County have been ordered to evacuate due to the fire, impacting approximately 1,100 people, according to the Mariposa County Sheriff's Office.Fire crews worked to establish a fireline around the eastern side of the community of Mariposa overnight and are focusing firefighting efforts on that side, Cal Fire said.The cause of the fire remains under investigation.Elsewhere, the Thompson Fire in Butte County has burned more than 3,700 acres and was 46% contained as of Friday morning, according to fire officials.Twenty-five structures have been destroyed by the fire, and three firefighters sustained heat-related injuries while battling it, officials said.Firefighters "continue to strengthen containment and control lines," Cal Fire said Friday.The fire burns as hot and dry conditions in the region are expected to continue into early next week, Cal Fire said.The cause of the Thompson Fire also remains under investigation.
Lake Fire spreads to more than 4,600 acres in Santa Barbara County, prompting evacuation warnings - -- A wildfire that began late Friday afternoon in Santa Barbara County has spread to 4,673 acres as of Saturday morning, prompting evacuation warnings, officials said.The so-called Lake Fire began at 3:48 p.m. in the area of Santa Lucia Road, near Zaca Lake in the Los Padres National Forest, according to Cal Fire. No injuries or structural damage were reported.Evacuation warnings were issued for Figueroa Mountain Road stretching from the Forest Station to Chamberlin Ranch, and north of Zaca Lake Road, east of Foxen Canyon Road and south of the Sisquoc River.Sheltering support information is available by calling (805) 678-3073. Assistance with the evacuation of large animals is available from Santa Barbara County Animal Services, by calling (805) 698-0212 or signing up online.Shortly after 11 a.m. Saturday, the Santa Barbara Air Pollution Control District noted that a massive column of smoke from the fire was visible throughout the area, adding that ground-level air quality conditions were currently good to moderate.The cause of the fire was under investigation.
Massive wildfire erupts in California, blazing across 5,000 acres and sparking evacuations (brief video) Officials have issued evacuation warnings after a forest fire in Santa Barbara spread to nearly 5,000 acres in the span of a day. A wildfire, dubbed the Lake Fire, that erupted at around 3:45 pm yesterday has left more than 300 acres of land charred in the Los Padres National Forest. The blazing Lake Fire had spread to about 4,673 acres before 11 pm, according to Los Padres officials. Pictures from the scene show red skies and trees on fire as firefighters run to control the situation. A wildfire that erupted at around 3:45pm yesterday has left over 300 acres of land charred in the Los Padres National Forest Images from the aftermath also show giant plumes of smoke emerging from the forest as branches continue to burn into ashImages from the aftermath also show giant plumes of smoke emerging from the forest as branches continue to burn into ash. The Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office has since issued evacuation orders for areas around Figueroa Mountain Road to the Forest Station to Chamberlin Ranch as well as areas north of Zaca Lake Road, east of Foxen Canyon Road and south of the Sisquoc River, according to the Santa Barbara Independent. Scott Safechuck, a Santa Barbara Fire Department spokesman, said temperatures had reached 90 degrees and relative humidity was nine percent in the fire area as of last night. 'A large number of fire resources are on scene and responding to this rapidly developing wildfire. Firefighters are aggressively suppressing the fire. The communities and resources affected are a top priority,' the federal government's Incident Information System website read. The website further stated that the fire is a red flag warning 'due to extremely high temperatures and low relative humidities.'The National Weather Service had also issued excessive heat warnings across the state till next week. The federal agency warned: 'An exceptionally dangerous situation continues to unfold during this potentially historic and deadly heat event. Several days of temperatures well above normal will lead to compounding effects among people and infrastructure with the possibility of numerous heat related fatalities.
Man accused of starting Northern California wildfire with weed whacker -A man has been arrested in connection with the outbreak of a wildfire that prompted evacuations this week near Clear Lake in Northern California, officials announced Friday.The Adams Fire, which sparked at 3:37 p.m. Wednesday off the 16200 block of Main Street in the Lake County community of Lower Lake, was determined to have been sparked by weed-eating in dry grass in extreme afternoon heat, Cal Fire said in a news release.With temperatures exceeding 100 degrees, the blaze quickly spread to 16 acres of grass-oak woodland, threatening multiple structures and forcing evacuations south of Main Street, officials said. The fire was quickly corralled, with containment Friday at 90% and all evacuations and warnings lifted.Cal Fire law enforcement arrested a Wheatland man on three misdemeanor charges related to negligent fire starts, according to the news release. He was released with an order to appear in court, officials said.Officials noted that while it is important to maintain a defensible space around structures to protect them from wildfires, such work should be done only under appropriate weather conditions, since equipment like lawn mowers, chainsaws and tractors can all cause fires. “We will have maximum enforcement on negligently caused fires that are preventable, such as the Adams Incident,” the news release said. “We have seen an increase in mowing and weed whacking fires and urge the public to avoid such activities until weather conditions are more favorable and the extreme fire conditions subside.”
Long-running heat wave in US set to break more records - The heat waves that broke records across the nation over the last month are showing no signs of stopping, as more than 130 million people remain under advisories of extreme heat — and temperatures are expected to be 15-30 degrees higher than average into next weekOppressive heat and humidity may lead to temperatures above 100 degrees Fahrenheit across the U.S. from the Pacific Northwest to the mid-Atlantic regions. Across northeastern California and western Nevada, the National Weather Service said the temperature will not go below 100 F until next week, The Associated Press reported.For most of June, much of the U.S. has been under heat advisories, with around 270 million people experiencing temperatures at or above 90 degrees. In late June, record-breaking heat hit much of the I-95 corridor, with temperatures above 100 degrees.This current heat wave has already scorched much of the West Coast, and Death Valley, Calif. —one of the hottest places on earth — saw its heat record broken Friday with a new high temperature of 127 degrees. According to the AP, the previous record of 122 degrees was last hit in 2013. By 9 a.m. Saturday, the National Weather Service (NWS) had recorded a 98-degree temperature in Phoenix, which saw a record high of 118 Friday. The worst is yet to come, with triple-digit temperatures likely through next week, between 15 and 30 degrees higher than the average. Baltimore and other parts of Maryland may hit close to 110 degrees this weekend, per the AP.Temperatures in Death Valley are expected to climb to 129 degrees Sunday and around 130 on Wednesday. The NWS has also extended a rare heat advisory for the mountains around Lake Taho. Scientists, including the infamous Bill Nye, believe that climate change is exacerbating heat waves across the country, and they warn that extreme heat in the summer might become the “new normal.” “It’s the beginning of the new normal, with respect,” Nye said late last month. “So, the latest — the latest research is that there’s not a turning point or a tipping point or a knee in the curve. It’s just going to get hotter and hotter and worse and worse and more and more extreme.”Without actions to mitigate climate change, heat-related deaths around the world could increase by 370 percent, according to a study from last year.As the threat of extreme heat continues to grow, President Biden has proposed the nation’s first ever standards aimed at protecting workers from extreme heat. If finalized, the proposal would mandate that employers provide rest breaks and access to shade and water for workers who face extreme heat risks. However, it is unclear whether the standards will ever go into effect since they likely will not be finalized before the end of Biden’s first term. Former President Trump, if elected, is not expected to approve these standards.According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 436 workers died due to extreme heat exposure, and the Biden administration argues that this rule would save lives. Between 2011 and 2020, there were around 34,000 work-related heat injuries. There are currently no federal heat protections for workers.
California heat wave: Heat record shattered in Death Valley, one of the hottest places on Earth - -- A new heat record for the day was set in California's Death Valley on Friday -- one of the hottest places on Earth. The previous high shattered by 5 degrees F, with the mercury climbing to 127 F. The old mark of 122 F was last tied in 2013.More extreme highs are in the near forecast, including 129 F for Sunday at Furnace Creek in Death Valley National Park, and then around 130 through Wednesday. The hottest temperature ever officially recorded on Earth was 134 degrees in Death Valley in July 1913, though some experts dispute that measurement and say the real record was 130 F recorded there in July 2021.There was also a record high for the date of 118 F in Phoenix, where highs of 115 F or hotter were forecast through Wednesday. In Needles, California, where the National Weather Service has records dating to 1888, the high of 122 F edged the old mark of 121 F set in 2007. It was 124 F in Palm Springs, California.
California’s heat wave is about to intensify. When will it end? -- One day after an all-time record high of 124 degrees was set in Palm Springs, day five of the ongoing heat wave just may end up being the hottest one yet for the interior valleys across California. Temperatures will get a boost over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure strengthens a bit and repositions itself further inland. It’s discouraging, considering just how anomalous this heat wave has already been, and the temperatures continue to bring serious risk to Californians. The long duration of this heat wave has been anything but normal. Today marks the fifth consecutive day of widespread excessive heat warnings and heat advisories covering the vast majority of California. Most of these advisories are not due to expire until Wednesday. and by then some locations will have been under some kind of heat advisory for over 200 consecutive hours. The numbers are starting to add up, too. Concord has reached at least 102 degrees for a high every day since Tuesday, a streak that will almost undoubtedly last through the weekend and give the city its hottest stretch since September 2022. Similar streaks are happening in Livermore, Sacramento and Redding. Large swaths of Northern and Central California are facing extreme heat risk. To check the danger where you are, enter an address below. When does it end?That’s the big question at the moment, and the answer is a bit complex. The ridge of high pressure responsible for all of this heat will actually peak in intensity as it shifts toward the Great Basin over the weekend. From there, it looks like the peak heat will increasingly be focused on eastern California, Nevada and Arizona as we move into the middle of next week.It’s a slow transition, though, and we can still expect 90s and triple-digit temperatures through at least Wednesday for any place that’s 20 to 30 miles inland from the Pacific Ocean. A reinvigorated sea breeze, which will persist into next week, has effectively ended the heat wave already for coastal locations. The heat wave never really got going along the coastlines of San Francisco and Los Angeles. In San Diego, high temperatures haven’t hit 80 degrees this month.By Thursday of next week, it appears that the ridge of high pressure will finally start to break down and temperatures across the interior will cool back to near normal values for this time of year.
Biden announces heat rules as climate-related deaths rise - President Joe Biden on Tuesday announced the first-ever federal rule to protect workers from extreme heat, amid a sweltering summer that many scientists expect to be one of the hottest ever recorded.The long-awaited regulation, which covers an estimated 35 million workers, won’t be final until at least 2026 — midway through what could be former President Donald Trump’s second term in the White House. But Biden used the rule to hammer home the climate and pro-labor agenda that has been a major theme of his presidency, in a departure from days of fallout about his shaky performance during last week’s debate.“Extreme weather events drive home a point I’ve been saying for so long: Ignoring climate change is deadly, dangerous and irresponsible,” Biden said in the District of Columbia’s Emergency Operations Center, with a map of heat across the United States behind him.In an earlier discussion with reporters, a senior administration official said: “The purpose of this rule is simple: to significantly reduce the number of injuries, illnesses and deaths suffered by workers subject to excessive heat while simply doing their jobs.”The proposal marks a milestone for the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, which for decades ignored calls to implement heat safety regulations as high temperatures killed an estimated 815 workers between 1992 and 2017 and seriously injured some 70,000 more, according to federal estimates.Climate change has turbocharged extreme heat, with temperature records already being smashed this summer in New England, leading to a spike in emergency room visits and killing a construction worker who collapsed on the job in Rhode Island last week.But the regulation faces an uncertain future. Trump has pledged to roll back portions of Biden’s climate change agenda while casting doubt on the scientific consensus that burning fossil fuels is driving up global temperatures. That could leave the heat rules in the hands of voters in the November election. The Trump campaign did not respond to questions about whether he would support a federal heat-safety regulation. But Republicans are already slamming Biden’s proposal.“If Joe Biden cared about the environment, he would stop jetting his wife across the country and lighting money on fire to bolster his flailing campaign that has him losing in his own internal polls,” Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley said.The proposal would require employers to implement simple safety measures that could save workers’ lives, such as providing water and a cool place to rest once combined heat and humidity levels reach 80 degrees. Employers would also be required to ease new workers into hot jobs to help their bodies adjust.When combined heat and humidity reach 90 degrees, the proposal requires 15-minute paid rest breaks for all employees after two hours, and supervisors would be required to periodically check in on laborers who are working alone.The proposed requirements are the same for employees who work indoors or outdoors and is expected to affect a large variety of workplaces, from farm fields to warehouses to kitchens.“We believe these will be achievable for employers and will protect workers and that they will save a significant number of lives,” said the administration official.Many of the proposed requirements dovetail with recommendations from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Just five states have their own heat protections for workers, though some cover only outdoor laborers. Texas and Florida recently passed laws blocking municipalities from requiring water and rest breaks for workers.Until now, OSHA’s efforts to protect workers was limited to issuing optional guidance that urged employers to provide water, rest and shade for some laborers. OSHA has the ability to issue citations when extreme heat leads to injuries or death under current requirements that employers keep workers safe from “recognized hazards.” But such citations are rare and are often only issued after workers have died of heat exposure.Addressing the effects of heat on workers has been a priority for OSHA under the Biden administration’s “whole of government approach” to climate change.The agency first began work on the heat rulemaking in September 2021, at Biden’s direction, after a heat dome over the Pacific Northwest killed 80 people in Oregon.Last summer, OSHA stepped up heat-related inspections under an “emphasis” program that targets workplaces before deaths or heat-related injuries have occurred. Those inspections were still hampered by having to rely on the general duty clause, rather than an enforceable regulation.
Severe thunderstorms with large hail hit central Nebraska, causing extensive damage - Severe thunderstorms swept through central Nebraska on June 29, 2024, producing strong winds, heavy rains, and large hail. The storm caused extensive damage to cars, homes and agricultural fields.At 01:27 LT on June 29, a thunderstorm with a wind gust of 113 km/h (70 mph) and hail ranging from 4.4 cm (1.75 inches) to 6.4 cm (2.50 inches) swept through Gothenburg and Cozad in Dawson County.Cozad was particularly hard-hit with multiple hail reports between 01:52 and 01:55, including hail sizes up to 10.2 cm (4 inches), resulting in significant damage to homes, vehicles, and a local hospital, and causing one injury.Cozad Community Hospital temporarily diverted patients from the emergency room to other facilities including Gothenburg Health as they conducted damage assessment.
Mississippi, Minnesota, and Missouri rivers expected to hit highest levels in a decade - The Watchers (2 videos) Massive flooding is impacting nearly half of Minnesota as of Thursday morning, June 27, 2024, with more than 20 river gauges across the Upper Midwest hitting major flood stage. With more rain expected, water levels on the Minnesota, Mississippi, and Missouri rivers are expected to see their highest levels in a decade. Across the Upper Midwest, more than 20 river gauges have reached major flood stage, with further rainfall expected in the already inundated areas. Water levels on the Minnesota, Mississippi, and Missouri rivers are predicted to reach their highest levels in at least a decade in the days ahead. On Wednesday, June 26, officials in Saint Paul declared a state of emergency as the city prepared for significant flooding from the Mississippi River, anticipated to rise several more feet by the weekend. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has urged affected residents to retain their receipts to expedite financial aid as property damage continues to escalate. “Right now, we are in the assessment phase,” Walz stated. “Until some of the water recedes, we won’t have the full picture of that.” On June 24, the rapid rise of the Blue Earth River led to the partial collapse of the 114-year-old Rapidan Dam, located 138 km (86 miles) southeast of Saint Paul. By June 25, the river had expanded enough to engulf most of an iconic home situated on a nearby embankment:
Historic floods in Midwest cause severe damage to farmlands - Flooding has affected millions of acres of farmland in Minnesota, South Dakota, and Iowa, this month, causing severe damage to the farmlands and farming communities of the most crucial regions of U.S. crop production. Experts estimate a reduction of almost 1.2 million ha (3 million acres) worth of soybean and corn crops. This has raised concerns about the possibility of food prices going up soon. Dave and Judy Oberg, a farming couple from South Dakota showed the flood damage to their homes and farmland to CBS reporter Jonah Kaplan, almost 1 214 ha (3 000 acres) of their and their extended family’s farmland turned into a swamp, destroying crop even before they had a chance to grow. All they could save was some belongings and a box of deeds for their lands which has been used for farming for generations. According to agricultural economist Ben Brown, we could see a reduction of about 1.2 ha (3 million acres) of soybeans and corn production within Minnesota, South Dakota, and Iowa as they are some of the prime regions of crop production in the United States that have been affected by devastating floods. Brown estimates that the effects on food and product prices would be low as long as other domestic and international producers can meet demand. “Farmers do have crop insurance but the ones we spoke to said it won’t even cover half their losses considering they are already paying for fuel, fertilizer, labor, and the seeds,” said CBS Minnesota’s news reporter Jonah Kaplan.
Water level in Shakopee higher than 1993 flood — If the partially submerged rollercoaster tracks at Valleyfair weren't enough proof, Shakopee city officials confirmed on Tuesday that this year's flooding was significant. According to a press release, the Minnesota River crested at 719.4 feet in Shakopee early Saturday morning, slightly higher than the 1993 flood, which crested at 719.29 feet. The flooding didn't quite reach the levels of the 1965 Shakopee flooding when the river crested at 721.8 feet, but the water levels are higher than they've been in decades. Last week, officials at Vallefair said three rides were under 14 feet of water. While the river is receding, it's still high and several areas remain under water. The amusement park is still open despite having to implement off-site parking. According to the park's website, the normal main guest lot will reopen Friday, July 5.
22 Minnesota counties approved for federal aid after flooding — Federal help is on the way for Minnesotans affected by recent floods, the office of Governor Tim Walz announced Saturday. Twenty-two counties were approved by FEMA, according to the governor's office. The counties approved for public assistance include: (list) "I’ve seen the damage across our state firsthand – it’s going to take a united effort at every level of government to quickly rebuild and recover. This assistance is going to make all the difference in that recovery,” said Governor Walz. “I’m grateful to our partners in the federal government for doing their part, just as Minnesotans have done theirs, filling tens of thousands of sandbags, checking in on their neighbors, and volunteering their time.”The announcement comes after Gov. Walz wrote a letter to President Joe Biden requesting a Presidential Disaster Declaration. You can read the letter to President Biden here.Damages assessments are still underway and other forms of assistance may be added once the assessments are complete. According to a press release, 20 other counties are currently under review for federal assistance.
Mississippi River causes widespread flooding in Wabasha - Many Minnesota communities living close to the Mississippi River faced flood warnings as water levels rose over the weekend. The city of Wabasha is one of the most significantly impacted areas with many streets and parks under water. “We had a flood here last year, and it was our fourth highest crest in history,” City of Wabasha Emergency Management Director Riley Castello said. “This one is about two feet shy of that.” According to Castello, water levels at the river peaked on Monday; on Tuesday afternoon, it sat at 15-feet. “We’ve had to close down five of our major parks and a couple of streets in town.” Castello said. Due to the severe weather and flooding, both the city and Wabasha County declared a local state of emergency, being one of the 22 counties approved by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for a federal disaster declaration. “It’s frustrating that we can’t just get in moderation. We just came out of a drought. Last year was incredibly dry and the river level was low comparatively. This year, we just can’t stop getting the rain. And now we have water standing in fields.” According to the National Eagle Center, the severe weather did not significantly impact the amount of visitors it received. “Overall, I don’t think the number of visitors have been impacted by the weather,” Director of Marketing and Communications Ed Hahn said. “ Maybe a little bit when it rains, you get fewer people going out.” Castello shared there are currently many uncertainties with how the flood waters will be cleared and the restoration process will undergo. He said property damage estimates cannot be determined until water levels go down. “We gasped when we saw the flooding,” said Maria Gorde, who was in Wabasha on Tuesday for a visit. “We had seen it online, but seeing it in person was like, ‘Wow.’”A bridge near a Minnesota dam may collapse. Officials say they can do little to stop it - (AP) — Rushing waters from the Blue Earth River have already left a trail of debris and destruction on the edges of a southern Minnesota dam that partially failed last week, but officials acknowledged Tuesday the structure most in danger may be the bridge that looms nearby.The County Road 9 Bridge is at risk of crumbling, and officials said they have little recourse. The threat to the bridge accelerated after a bout of heavy rain and flooding pummeled the Midwest for days. The Blue Earth River’s water levels rose dramatically and tested the structural integrity of the dam. The dam has held up, but the specter of collapse hasn’t waned.Now, the roughly 40-year-old bridge locals use to commute across the dam from rural patches of land to nearby towns, may topple over if the weather doesn’t cooperate.“Unfortunately, we’re at the mercy of Mother Nature at this point,” said Ryan Thilges, the public works director for Blue Earth County. “We’re very concerned about the potential for partial or full failure of the bridge.”Thilges stood atop a hillside on the eastern side of the Rapidan Dam near the Minnesota city of Mankato. He was flanked by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and other officials who went to the dam to get an update on flood conditions and recovery efforts.Officials are warily watching both the dam and the bridge, noting that the still-surging river has drastically changed the area.“I think the concern is that is the bridge going to be structurally damaged by this and will it need to be replaced?” Walz said.The floodwaters forged a new river channel around the dam cut deeply into a steep riverbank, toppling utility poles, wrecking a substation, swallowing a home and forcing the removal of a beloved store. The conditions have made it too dangerous for officials to get close enough for a thorough inspection of the bridge, but they have already identified troubling signs of damage.The river is washing away large amounts of sediment, causing instability to the bridge’s supporting piers, built atop sandstone bedrock. Officials have been able to stabilize at least one pier but said they haven’t been able to get to the others.Complicating matters was “a massive spike of trees that came down the river” on Sunday, Thilges said. The dead trees, a product of drought over the last several years, collided with the bridge, and some are hanging on the piers. The county has not been able to find contractors who felt safe enough to clear the debris.“Nobody was willing to send out their operator and risk their operator’s life to try to push those trees through,” Thilges said.Flooding has caused millions of dollars in damage to bridges, homes and roads across Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska and South Dakota. The dam captured attention after officials initially said it faced an “imminent threat” of collapse.
News Chopper 9 video: Flooding along the Missouri River -- News Chopper 9 got a new look at the flooding along the Missouri River.News Chopper 9 flew over Rulo, Nebraska in the southeast corner of the state, near the Missouri border.You can see the river is spilling over into nearby trees after flooding further north, and even more rain this week.
Tri-state area battles rising Mississippi River, level threaten July 4th tourism Quincy, Ill. (KHQA) — In the tri-state area, communities along the Mississippi River are grappling with elevated water levels, resulting in widespread flooding. In Canton, the town has had to raise its floodgates and close several roads. Canton Mayor Terry Fretwell says the flooding has hit the town hard. "We have shut the north gate, the river gates have been closed, we've shut down our Mississippi Park where our campers are," said Fretwell. "And we've taken all of the precautions to assure that there is no damage on the outside of the levee." With the RV park closing for the next few weeks, Fretwell says it is impacting their tourism. "4th of July weekend is one of our big weekends at the campgrounds. And we lose quite a bit of money on that weekend and people generally come and stay before the 4th of July and then come after the 4th of July and then stay that weekend too, so yes it financially us plus tourism, eating at our places and so forth," said Fretwell. Over on the Illinois side of the river, Randy McClelland, one homeowner of a river cabin says that they have been affected by the high waters since they bought it back in 1991. He says they are handling it well, given the previous floods they have encountered. "It's always different, you know. I got a dog now, it's just a pain bringing her over, but it is what it is," said McClelland. Mayor Fretwell says they expect the RV campground to open up toward the middle to end of the month. "It will be two or three weeks because it has to be down to about 16.5 before we can open the campgrounds and it's not going to get that time for quite some time," said Fretwell.
Flooding closing locks on Mississippi River (KCRG) - The Army Corps of Engineers announced more locks and dams are now closed along the Mississippi River amid flooding. The lock in Dubuque and Fulton, Illinois closed Friday. That’s in addition to three other locks that closed previously. The U.S. Coast Guard has banned recreational boating until further notice along much of river along Iowa’s eastern border as it warns of both the high water and debris carried in the fast-moving Mississippi River. That’s impacting boating businesses along the Mississippi River during what is normally a busy holiday weekend. Lock and Dam 11 in Dubuque is closed for flooding on the Mississippi River on July 5, 2024. The closures of the locks and dams will impact shipping on the Mississippi River. That barge traffic typically picks up pace in the late summer months as harvest in the Midwest leads to a lot of grain getting shipped down the Mississippi River to ports in the Gulf of Mexico.
Beryl strengthens into 1st major Atlantic hurricane of the year (AP) — Beryl grew into a hurricane Saturday as it churned toward the southeastern Caribbean, with forecasters warning it was expected to strengthen into a dangerous major storm before reaching Barbados late Sunday or early Monday. A major hurricane is considered Category 3 or higher, with winds of at least 111 mph (178 kph). On Saturday night, Beryl was a Category 1 hurricane, marking the farthest east that a hurricane formed in the tropical Atlantic in June, breaking a record set in 1933, according to Philip Klotzbach, Colorado State University hurricane researcher. A hurricane warning was issued for Barbados, St. Lucia, Grenada, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. A tropical storm warning was posted for Martinique and Tobago and a tropical storm watch for Dominica. “It’s astonishing to see a forecast for a major (Category 3+) hurricane in June anywhere in the Atlantic, let alone this far east in the deep tropics. #Beryl organizing in a hurry over the warmest waters ever recorded for late June,” Florida-based hurricane expert Michael Lowry posted on X. Beryl’s center was forecast to pass about 26 miles (45 kilometers) south of Barbados, said Sabu Best, director of the island’s meteorological service. Forecasters then expect the storm to cross the Caribbean on a path toward Jamaica and eventually Mexico. Late Saturday, Beryl was centered about 595 miles (955 kilometers) east-southeast of Barbados, and its maximum sustained winds had risen to 85 mph (140 kph). It was moving west at 20 mph (31 kph). “Rapid strengthening is now forecast,” the Miami-based U.S. National Hurricane Center said.
Caribbean braces for ‘extremely dangerous’ Hurricane Beryl | Al Jazeera --Much of the southeast Caribbean is on alert as storm Beryl strengthens into the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, with forecasters warning of an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm.The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Beryl – churning on Sunday in the Atlantic Ocean about 565km (350 miles) east of Barbados – was “an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane” and to heed local government and emergency management.The storm’s eye is expected to move early on Monday across the Windward Islands, a cluster of islands including Martinique, Saint Lucia and Grenada, among others, it said.The storm will produce “potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge, and damaging waves,” the NHC forecast said.Barbados, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Tobago were all under hurricane warnings, while tropical storm warnings or watches were in effect for Martinique, Dominica and Trinidad, the NHC said in its latest advisory.Cars were seen lined up at filling stations in the Barbadian capital, Bridgetown, while supermarkets and grocery stores were crowded with shoppers buying food, water and other supplies. Some households were already boarding up their properties.Saint Vincent and the Grenadines as well as Grenada were at the highest risk of being at the centre of the storm’s core beginning early Monday, the NHC said.A Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale is considered a major hurricane, and a Category 4 storm packs sustained winds of at least 209km/h (130mph).Beryl was packing maximum sustained winds that were estimated at 209km/h (130mph), the NHC said around 11:35am (15:35 GMT), as it warned of “heavy rainfall and localized flooding.”Beryl is expected to remain powerful as it moves across the Caribbean, the NHC said, warning residents and officials in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and the rest of the northwestern Caribbean to carefully monitor its progress.Such a powerful storm forming this early in the Atlantic hurricane season – which runs from early June to late November – is extremely rare, experts said.“Only five major [Category 3+] hurricanes have been recorded in the Atlantic before the first week of July. Beryl would be the sixth and earliest this far east in the tropical Atlantic,” NHC meteorologist Michael Lowry posted on X.The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in late May that it expects this year to be an “extraordinary” hurricane season, with up to seven storms of Category 3 or higher.The agency cited warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures and conditions related to the weather phenomenon La Nina in the Pacific for the expected increase in storms.
Beryl, earliest Category 4 hurricane on record, brings perilous winds to Caribbean (Reuters) - The "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm Hurricane Beryl barrelled across the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday night toward the Caribbean's Windward Islands, where it is expected to bring life-threatening winds and flash flooding on Monday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.The first hurricane of the 2024 season was located about 150 miles (240 km) southeast of Barbados on Sunday night, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (215 kph), the NHC said in an advisory."Beryl is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane as its core moves through the Windward Islands into the eastern Caribbean," the NHC said in its latest advisory.The center of the hurricane is expected to travel across the Windward Islands on Monday morning as a Category 4 storm, the second-strongest level on a five-step scale, bringing "potentially catastrophic wind damage" to St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Grenada.It is rare for a major hurricane to appear this early in the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. On Sunday, Beryl became the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record, beating Hurricane Dennis, which became a Category 4 on July 8, 2005, according to NHC data.Hurricane warnings have been issued in Barbados, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands, Grenada and Tobago. A tropical storm watch has been issued for Dominica, Trinidad, and parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.Authorities and residents on the Caribbean islands were preparing for the storm's arrival.Tobago has opened shelters, closed schools for Monday, and cancelled elective surgeries in the hospitals, authorities said.The hurricane is expected to bring 3 to 6 inches (8 to 15 cm) of rain across Barbados and the Windward Islands throughout the day on Monday, which the NHC warned could cause flash flooding in vulnerable areas.Large, dangerous swells are also expected to batter the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.In May, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic in 2024, in part due to near-record warm ocean temperatures.
Hurricane Beryl Explosively Intensified - What’s Next? - Just wow. Those two words are used sparingly by me because it is important to be credible not hyperbolic when it comes to weather events. However, it seems like I am using them more often. What I am seeing concerning now Category 3 Hurricane Beryl is simply astounding. It has explosively intensified and remains a potential threat for the U.S. by next weekend. . The National Hurricane Center writes in its morning discussion, “Beryl's structure is quickly evolving this morning as it undergoes rapid intensification.” The hurricane is moving into an environment with very warm sea surface temperatures (29 degrees Celsius) and minimal wind shear. NHC goes on to say, “There's no obvious reason it shouldn't become a very powerful hurricane before impacting the Windward Islands.... the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to explicitly show rapid intensification over the next day, making Beryl an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane before it moves across the Windward islands.”Rapid intensification is defined by the NOAA Glossary as, “An increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.” That’s roughly 35 mph. DTNsenior software engineer and weather expert Sam Lillo’s post on X tells you how explosive the intensification of Beryl has been. Lillo explains that Beryl intensified by 65 kt in 36 hours. He also goes on to say, “It took #Beryl 42 hours to go from a tropical depression to a major hurricane, on June 30th. This has been done 6 other times in Atlantic hurricane history. And the EARLIEST date this was achieved before was ... September 1. SEPTEMBER!”The storm is also unprecedented in other ways too. Colorado State University hurricane expert Phil Klotzbach says Beryl is the first major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) east of the Lesser Antilles during the month of June. If the storm strengthens to Category 4 as expected by July 1st, it will be the earliest Category 4 storm on record. Klotzbach posted, “Current Atlantic record for earliest Category 4 hurricane is Hurricane Dennis on July 8, 2005.” By the way, Beryl is also the third earliest Category 3 storm on record behind Alma (1966) and Audrey (1957), according to Klotzbach.Beryl is likely to encounter a bit more wind shear as it moves further into the Caribbean Sea, which could moderate the explosive intensification trend. However, as the storm moves into the western Caribbean, forecast models are hinting at less shear again. Remember, hurricanes develop better when there is less wind shear (wind speed or direct changes as you go up in altitude) and high ocean heat content. For the latter, there is plenty of that. NHC also points out, “There aren't any significant track changes from the previous advisory with an extensive mid-level ridge north of Beryl expected to steer the system westward or west-northwestward for several days. Model guidance remains in tight agreement on the forecast track ....”Beyond five days, there is always more uncertainty in the track forecast. Right now, the European model suggests a stronger storm moving southward into Mexico by the weekend. However, the American GFS models hints at a weaker storm into the Gulf of Mexico and landfalling in Texas. I fully expect the models to come into better agreement in the coming hours to days as the intensity scenarios clarify in the western Caribbean. As such, if you live along the western Gulf Coast in the U.S., Central America or Mexico, pay attention.
'Extremely dangerous eyewall' of major Hurricane Beryl moving over Carriacou Island - Hurricane Beryl made landfall Monday morning over Carriacou Island as an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of 11 a.m. CST, the storm had sustained winds of 140 mph. Hurricane Beryl became the first major hurricane to form in the North Atlantic in June. It re-strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane Monday morning and could be catastrophic for the Windward Islands. The official forecast calls for the hurricane to weaken after it crosses the Windward Islands. The storm will move west-northwest across the Caribbean for the next five days, and it could impact Jamaica, Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba by Wednesday, July 3. Beryl will not have any significant impact on the Alabama or Florida Gulf Coast for the next seven days. Even after that, the storm will not have much chance to impact the northern Gulf Coast. Most models take the storm over or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche by next weekend. However, there is a large degree of uncertainty in the track when forecasting beyond three to five days. Tropical Storm Chris formed in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday, June 30. Chris weakened once it moved inland along the Mexican coast, but heavy rain will result in flooding and possible mudslides. Showers and storms continue with an area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic. This will likely develop into a tropical depression as it moves west.
Carriacou Island flattened in 30 minutes as Category 4 Hurricane “Beryl’ makes direct hit, Grenada - Hurricane “Beryl” made landfall on Carriacou Island, Grenada on July 2, 2024, causing catastrophic damage across the region. The storm resulted in seven fatalities: three in Grenada, one in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and two in Venezuela, with five individuals reported missing.
- Carriacou and Petite Martinique saw 95% of homes damaged or destroyed, while St. Vincent’s Union Island experienced similar devastation.
- Barbados faced significant flooding and building damage.
- Efforts are underway to provide relief and restore communication systems in the affected areas.
Hurricane “Beryl” made landfall on Carriacou (population 9 600), Grenada, as a Category 4 hurricane on July 2, resulting in severe damage across the island. “In half an hour, Carriacou was flattened,” said Grenada’s Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell. “There is literally no vegetation left anywhere on the island of Carriacou,” he added. The extremely dangerous eyewall of Hurricane “Beryl” started moving over Carriacou Island around 15:00 UTC. At the time, Beryl had maximum sustained winds of 220 km/h (140 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 956 hPa. “This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said ahead of the landfall. Grenada’s Attorney General Claudette Joseph reported that 95% of homes on Carriacou and Petite Martinique were either damaged or destroyed. Although the state of emergency was lifted for Grenada, it remains in effect for Carriacou and Petite Martinique. Relief efforts include boats and at least one plane transporting supplies, and an emergency response team has been dispatched to restore communication systems. St. Vincent and the Grenadines saw serious damage, with Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves confirming one death on the island of Bequia. “The Union Island airport’s roof is gone. It’s no more,” and noted that 90% of homes on Union Island were destroyed. Hundreds of houses in St. Vincent were also severely damaged, although government facilities were expected to reopen on July 2, 2024. Gonsalves urged private businesses to consider their employees’ needs, who may have lost their homes or are without basic utilities. Barbados avoided a direct hit but suffered flooding and building damage, particularly on the south coast. Vichelle Clark King expressed her distress: “Right now, I’m real heartbroken,” as she looked at her shop in Bridgetown, which was filled with sand and water. Government departments were expected to reopen, though schools will remain closed through July 3. In Sucre, Venezuela, Beryl caused heavy rain and flooding, resulting in two deaths and at least five missing persons. President Nicolas Maduro shared images of rescue operations on social media. Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, heavily reliant on tourism, suffered considerable economic impacts. Grenada, with a population of about 126 000, is the world’s second-largest producer of nutmeg. St. Vincent and the Grenadines, home to approximately 104 000 people, is known for banana production.
Hurricane Beryl continues strengthening as it pulls away from Windward Islands - As major Hurricane Beryl continues to pull away from the Windward Islands, the storm only continues to strengthen. In the most recent update, Beryl's wind speeds were 155 mph, only 2 mph shy of a Category 5 hurricane. This comes after the hurricane made landfall on Carriacou Island earlier on Monday. Trees were toppled, power was knocked out and life-threatening storm surge sent water rushing inland across the southern Windward Islands after extremely dangerousHurricane Beryl made landfall as a high-end Category 4 storm. The storm produced catastrophic winds, which battered the region as terrified residents hunkered down in their homes and shelters, waiting for the storm’s fury to pass.Hurricane Beryl was a Category 3 hurricane earlier on Monday morning, and with each update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the monster storm’s wind speed kept increasing, its pressure kept dropping, and it eventually reached a high-end Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph before making landfall in Carriacou Island, Grenada. Video recorded along the southern coast of Barbados Monday morning shows a life-threatening storm surge rushing inland as Hurricane Beryl spins close to the island. Then came a dire warning from the NHC that residents should remain indoors until the storm had passed."This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation," the NHC said. "Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions."So far, the NHC said Hurricane Beryl produced a sustained wind speed of 92 mph at Grenada airport, as well as a devastating wind gust of 121 mph – as strong as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.A video recorded in Barbados early Monday morning shows palm trees swaying in the wind as powerful Hurricane Beryl spins to the south of the island.St. Lucia also experienced potentially dangerous impacts from Hurricane Beryl. The NHC said the island reported a sustained wind speed of 52 mph and a wind gust of 63 mph.Hurricane Beryl became the second named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season and made history while the storm rapidly intensified from a tropical depression totropical storm and then a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in less than 48 hours. For those who live in the region, the weekend was spent preparing for the storm’s onslaught by placing coverings on windows of homes, filling up gas tanks and picking up last-minute supplies after it became clear that Hurricane Beryl would continue to strengthen as it approached island nations like Barbados and St. Lucia, where Hurricane Warnings remain in place.
Hurricane Beryl travels across Caribbean as a near-Category 5 storm with 155 mph winds - - Hurricane Beryl, which became the season’s first major hurricane Sunday, made landfall Monday in the Grenadine Islands north of Grenada as a powerful Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 155 mph, just shy of the Category 5 threshold. Beryl was packing “life-threatening winds and storm surge” of as much as 6 to 9 feet, and 3 to 6 inches of rain, across Barbados and the Windward Islands on its approach to the far eastern Caribbean on Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center. As of 8 p.m. Monday, its winds had increased from 150 mph to 155 mph, just shy of the 157 mph cut-off for a Category 5 hurricane. Beryl was about 575 miles east-southeast of Isla Beata in the Dominican Republic and traveling west-northwest at 21 mph. Forecasters expect it to maintain its major-hurricane status as it sweeps into the Caribbean Sea. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles. Most of Jamaica, Belize and parts of Mexico were within Beryl’s cone Monday. Jamaica has issued a hurricane warning and hurricane conditions are possible there by Wednesday. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti and the entire south coast of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault. “Development this far east in late June is unusual,” the forecasters at the hurricane center said. “In fact, there have only been a few storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.” “Beryl is the easternmost hurricane and ‘major hurricane’ to form in the tropical Atlantic during the month of June,” the Weather Channel reported. Beryl is expected to remain a significant hurricane as it moves through the eastern Caribbean and may weaken some by midweek, but will remain a hurricane, forecasters said Monday. It is not expected to affect South Florida, but should pass near Jamaica on Wednesday and reach the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday. Once the storm crosses the Yucatan and is over water once again, it will be weaker, but its potential path broadens, and could include Southern Texas. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Chris, which formed hours earlier, has dissipated as it moved inland near Tuxpan, Mexico. The system is expected to bring heavy rain to eastern Mexico. Forecasters also said that a tropical wave, located about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands in the Atlantic on Monday, could become a tropical depression by midweek as it moves toward the eastern and central Caribbean.
Hurricane Beryl strengthens to category 5 storm as it ‘flattens’ island in Grenada Hurricane Beryl has strengthened to a Category 5 status as it crosses islands in the south-eastern Caribbean.In a post on X, the National Hurricane Center said “Beryl Becomes a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane In the Eastern Caribbean. Expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica later this week.”Beryl ripped off doors, windows and roofs in homes across the south-eastern Caribbean on Monday after making landfall on the island of Carriacou in Grenada as the earliest Category 4 storm in the Atlantic, fuelled by its record warm waters.Grenada’s prime minister, Dickon Mitchell, said late on Monday that one person had died and authorities had not been able to assess the situation on the islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique.There were initial reports of major damage but communications were largely down.“In half an hour, Carriacou was flattened,” Mitchell told a press conference, according to Agence France-Presse.Later on social media, the prime minister said the government was working to get relief supplies to both Carriacou and the island of Petite Martinique on Tuesday. “The state of emergency is still in effect. Remain indoors,” he wrote on Facebook.From St Lucia island south to Grenada, the streets were strewn with shoes, trees, downed power lines and other debris. Banana trees were snapped in half and cows lay dead in green pastures with homes made of tin and plywood tilting precariously nearby.Late on Monday, Beryl’s winds increased to 260km/h (160mph). Fluctuations in strength were likely in the coming days.Beryl is pushing into the Caribbean Sea on a track heading just south of Jamaica and toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by late Thursday as a Category 1 storm.Hurricane warnings were in effect for Barbados, Grenada, St Lucia, Tobago, and St Vincent and the Grenadines on Monday as thousands of people hunkered down in homes and shelters.“It’s going to be terrible,” Ralph Gonsalves, the prime minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines, said ahead of the storm as he urged people to stay indoors “and wait this monster out”.The last strong hurricane to hit the south-east Caribbean was Hurricane Ivan nearly 20 years ago, which killed dozens of people in Grenada.A tropical storm warning was in effect for Martinique and Trinidad. A tropical storm watch was issued for Dominica, Haiti’s entire southern coast, and from Punta Palenque in the Dominican Republic west to the border with Haiti.
Hurricane Beryl reaches record winds of 165 mph as the powerful storm barrels toward Jamaica -- Hurricane Beryl, the record-setting, powerful storm that has claimed at least six lives in the Caribbean, weakened slightly Tuesday as it makes its way toward Jamaica, but is still a major Category 4 with life-threatening winds and storm surge. The storm, which was expected to hit Jamaica directly or pass near it Wednesday, had been a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 165 mph — making it the strongest July hurricane ever recorded, beating Emily from 2015, according to the National Hurricane Center. By Tuesday night the storm was a Category 4 with 150 mph winds, but it will be still a major hurricane when it passes by or over Jamaica, forecasters warned. “Beryl is still a very powerful Category 4 hurricane,” National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said in a video briefing Tuesday. Jamaica will feel tropical storm-force winds early Wednesday, and then hurricane conditions, the National Hurricane Center said in a bulletin. The storm’s center was around 360 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday and it was moving west south of Haiti. Already, the storm has been blamed in six deaths — three were killed in Grenada, two died in northeastern Venezuela, and one person was killed in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, according to officials. The hurricane made landfall on Carriacou Island in Grenada in the Windward Islands at 11:10 a.m. Monday as it approached the Caribbean. Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said that there are many downed power lines and roads that are not passable. "The situation is grim," Dickon said. "There is no port. There’s almost complete destruction of homes and buildings on the island." Jamaica has issued a hurricane warning, and Prime Minister Andrew Holness urged people to be prepared and seek higher, safer ground make preparations and not to wait. Lacie McKenzie, a bar owner in Kingston, said she and others she knows do not plan to evacuate, even though they are in a low-lying area. “They’re not going to leave. None of us are. We’re going to stand and we’re going to ride it out,” she said. After passing near or over Jamaica Wednesday, the hurricane is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands on Thursday before reaching the Yucatán Peninsula at night. The storm surge in Jamaica could reach 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels, with up to 12 inches of rain possible there and the southwestern Haitian peninsula through Wednesday. In the Cayman Islands, where there is also a hurricane warning, storm surge could raise water levels 2 to 4 feet above the norm. The south coast of Haiti was under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning, and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic was also under a tropical storm warning. "We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we expect the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island during the day tomorrow," Brennan, the National Hurricane Center director, said Tuesday. The effects of Beryl could even reach the continental U.S., with minor coastal flooding in southeast Texas or southwest Louisiana, according to the National Weather Service field office in Lake Charles, Louisiana. More impacts are possible if the hurricane moves further north than expected. In Grenada, officials were working on restoring communication wrecked by the storm. “We have lost almost 95% of the roof and housing stock in Petite Martinique and in Carriacou,” Arthur Pierre, deputy coordinator for Grenada’s emergency management agency NaDMA, said in a video briefing Tuesday. St. Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves said that the storm has left “immense destruction." "Union Island has been devastated," he said. The reports that I have received indicated that 90% of the houses have been severely damaged or destroyed." Beryl is the first hurricane classed as category 4 or higher to appear in June and the earliest category 4 storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. It's also the strongest hurricane to pass through the Windward Islands, which include Grenada, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia and Martinique.
Hurricane Beryl roars through open waters as monstrous Category 4 storm (AP) — Hurricane Beryl roared through open waters Tuesday as a powerful Category 4 storm heading toward Jamaica after earlier crossing islands in the southeast Caribbean, killing at least six people. A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman, and Cayman Brac. Beryl was losing intensity but was forecast to still be near major-hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica early Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center. A hurricane watch was in effect for Haiti’s southern coast and the Yucatan’s east coast. Belize issued a tropical storm watch stretching south from its border with Mexico to Belize City. Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic and peaked at winds of 165 mph (270 kph) Tuesday before weakening to a still-destructive Category 4. On Tuesday night, the storm was about 360 miles (580 kilometers) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It had top winds of 150 mph (240 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 22 mph (35 kph), the center said. Beryl was expected to bring life-threatening winds and storm surge to Jamaica, where officials warned residents in flood-prone areas to prepare for evacuation. “I am encouraging all Jamaicans to take the hurricane as a serious threat,” Prime Minister Andrew Holness said in a public address Tuesday. “It is, however, not a time to panic.” In Miami, National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan said Jamaica appears to be in the direct path of Beryl. “We are most concerned about Jamaica, where we are expecting the core of a major hurricane to pass near or over the island,” he said in an online briefing. “You want to be in a safe place where you can ride out the storm by nightfall (Tuesday). Be prepared to stay in that location through Wednesday.” Storm surge of 5-8 feet above typical tide levels are likely in Jamaica, as well as heavy rainfall. “This is a big hazard in the Caribbean, especially with the mountainous islands,” Brennan said. “This could cause life threatening flash floods and mudslides in some of these areas.” A tropical storm warning was in place for the entire southern coast of Hispaniola, an island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.As the storm barreled through the Caribbean Sea, rescue crews in southeastern islands fanned out to determine the extent of the damage Beryl inflicted on Carriacou, an island in Grenada. Three people were reported killed in Grenada and Carriacou and another in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, officials said. Two other deaths were reported in northern Venezuela, where five people are missing, officials said. Some 25,000 people in that area also were affected by heavy rainfall from Beryl.
Hurricane Beryl roars by Jamaica after killing at least 6 in the southeast Caribbean --Hurricane Beryl was roaring by Jamaica Wednesday, bringing fierce winds and heavy rain after the powerful Category 4 storm earlier killed at least six people and caused significant damage in the southeast Caribbean. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Beryl’s eyewall was “brushing the south coast of Jamaica.” Wind-whipped rain pounded the island for hours as residents heeded authorities’ call to shelter until the storm had passed. Power was knocked out in much of the capital. Prime Minister Andrew Holness said on Wednesday afternoon that nearly 500 people were placed in shelters. “We are placing emphasis on ensuring they are comfortable and well looked after,” he said in a social media post. Before Beryl’s arrival in Kingston, people had earlier boarded up windows, fishermen pulled their boats out of the water and workers dismantled roadside advertising boards to protect them from the lashing winds. “We are very concerned about a wide variety of life threatening impacts in Jamaica,” including storm surge, high winds and flash flooding, said Jon Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather. Porter called Beryl “the strongest and most dangerous hurricane threat that Jamaica has faced, probably, in decades.” A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica, Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. Beryl was forecast to weaken slightly over the next day or two, but still be at or near major-hurricane strength when it passes near or over Jamaica on Wednesday, near the Cayman Islands on Thursday and into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Jamaica was under a state of emergency as the island was declared a disaster zone hours before the impact of Hurricane Beryl. Holness said that the disaster zone declaration will remain for the next seven days. He also announced an island-wide curfew between 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. on Wednesday. Security forces “will be fully mobilized to maintain public order and assist with disaster relief. As soon as the hurricane has passed, the security forces have developed strategic plans to counter any potential threat of looting or any other opportunistic crimes,” Holness warned. An evacuation order was also issued for communities across Jamaica that are prone to flooding and landslides. Holness urged Jamaicans to move away from low-lying areas. A hurricane watch was in effect for Haiti’s southern coast and the Yucatan’s east coast. Belize issued a tropical storm watch stretching south from its border with Mexico to Belize City. Late Monday, Beryl became the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic and peaked at winds of 165 mph (270 kph) Tuesday before weakening to a still-destructive Category 4. On Wednesday, the storm’s center was about 65 miles (100 kilometers) west-southwest of Kingston. It had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (220 kph) and was moving west-northwest at 20 mph (31 kph). Hurricane strength winds extended 45 miles from the center. In Miami, hurricane center director Michael Brennan in an online briefing said people on the island should plan to stay sheltered throughout the day Wednesday with conditions only beginning to improve overnight. Jamaica’s southern coast, where Kingston is located, was expected to bear the brunt of Beryl with coastal water levels rising to 6 or 9 feet (1.8 to 2.7 meters) above normal tide levels in some area. Heavy rains of 4 to 8 inches, with up to a foot in isolated areas, threatened flash flooding and mudslides on the mountainous island, he said. Mexico’s Caribbean coast was preparing for Beryl Wednesday. The government issued a hurricane warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun. The head of Mexico’s civil defense agency said that Beryl is expected to make a rare double strike on Mexico. Laura Velázquez said the hurricane is expected to make landfall between late Thursday and early Friday along a relatively unpopulated stretch of the Caribbean coast between Tulum and the inland town of Felipe Carrillo Puerto. Because the coast there is largely made up of lagoons and mangroves, there are few resorts or hotels in the area south of Tulum. The hurricane is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it crosses the Yucatan peninsula and reemerge over the weekend at storm strength into the Gulf of Mexico. Velázquez said that Beryl is then expected to hit Mexican territory a second time in the Gulf coast states of Veracruz or Tamaulipas, near the Texas border.
Hurricane Beryl leaves Jamaican homes without power --Hundreds of thousands of homes in Jamaica remain without power in the wake of Hurricane Beryl.The then category four storm - one of the most powerful to ever hit the country - swept along the island's southern coast earlier this week, bringing more than 12 hours of heavy rain. Officials and residents are assessing the damage after an island-wide curfew was lifted early on Thursday. Strong winds and dangerous storm surges and waves hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early on Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in the US has forecasted Beryl to bring 10cm (4in) to 15cm (6in) of rain to Mexico's coast.In an update on Friday evening, the NHC issued a hurricane watch for southern Texas, warning that Beryl may gain strength over the ocean before making landfall in the US.It has already left a trail of devastation across the Caribbean, killing at least 10 people. St Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Venezuela reported three deaths each, while one person died in Jamaica. The storm destroyed almost every home on two small islands in St Vincent and the Grenadines, Mayreau and Union. Here in the Jamaican capital, Kingston, while the winds were extremely strong, they were not the hurricane gusts that were expected. But the hours of heavy rain are a real concern, especially on farmland where flooding has been reported. One resident of a rural farming community told the Reuters news agency: "It's terrible. Everything's gone. I'm in my house and I'm scared.""It's a disaster," said Amoy Wellington, who lives in the southern parish of St Elizabeth.On Wednesday night I was able to go outside briefly to move my car away from overhanging trees.A full-length mirror was lying next to the car - it had probably blown off someone's balcony, a reminder that unexpected objects suddenly become missiles in winds that strong.Jamaican energy provider JPS said that 65% - or about 400,000 of its customers - were without power on Thursday morning.The hurricane had delivered “a most devastating blow” to parts of the island, said the MP for St Elizabeth South Western.Posting on X, Floyd Green said in his constituency “significant numbers of roofs [have been] lost, houses destroyed, trees uprooted, light poles downed, almost all roads are impassable”.King Charles III, who is also monarch in several Caribbean nations, said on Thursday he was "profoundly saddened to learn of the dreadful destruction" left by Hurricane Beryl.The UN has unlocked $4m (£3.1m) from its emergency response fund to help the recovery in Jamaica, Grenada and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.Prime Minister Andrew Holness thanked "first responders, essential services, security forces and good Samaritans who have assisted others in this time of crisis" on his X account.Beryl became the the earliest category five Atlantic hurricane in records going back around 100 years - thought to be as a result of warmer sea surface temperatures.The storm shocked meteorologists at how fast it intensified - taking just 42 hours to go from a tropical depression to a major hurricane.
Hurricane Beryl, a major Category 3 storm, passing Cayman Islands after lashing Jamaica - Hurricane Beryl was passing the Cayman Islands on Thursday morning as a major Category 3 storm after roaring past Jamaica, where it brought fierce winds and heavy rain. Earlier, as a powerful Category 4 storm, Beryl killed at least seven people and caused significant damage in the southeast Caribbean. The Miami-based National Hurricane Center said that the Cayman Islands were expected to see strong winds, dangerous storm surge and damaging waves. Despite being forecast to weaken slightly over the next day or two, Beryl was still at major hurricane strength when it passed Jamaica, the center said. Wind-whipped rain pounded the island for hours as residents heeded authorities' call to shelter until the storm had passed. Power was knocked out in much of the capital of Kingston. As of Thursday morning, Beryl's center was some 50 miles southwest of Grand Cayman island with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, the hurricane center said. It was moving west-northwest at 20 mph with hurricane-force winds extending about 45 miles from the storm's center. Major hurricane strength is defined as a Category 3 hurricane or higher, which means maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph, while a hurricane has maximum winds of at least 74 mph. Beryl was forecast to pass just south of the Cayman Islands and still be a hurricane when it reaches Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early Friday, according to the hurricane center. Jamaica's hurricane warning ended Thursday but a warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and parts of the Yucatan's east coast. A hurricane watch was also posted for parts of the peninsula. Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness said Wednesday evening that Jamaica his island nation hadn't seen the "worst of what could possibly happen." "We can do as much as we can do, as humanly possible, and we leave the rest in the hands of God," Holness said. Several roadways in the country's interior settlements were impacted by fallen trees and utility poles, while some communities in the northern section were without electricity, according to the government's information service. Before Beryl's arrival in Kingston, people had earlier boarded up windows, fishermen pulled their boats out of the water and workers dismantled roadside advertising boards to protect them from the lashing winds. Kingston resident Pauline Lynch said that she had stockpiled food and water in anticipation of the storm's arrival. With wind already driving rain, Lynch said, "I have no control over what is coming so I just have to pray that all people of Jamaica is safe and we don't suffer no deaths, no loss." By midday, winds already howled in the capital, turning the sea into churning whitecaps as Beryl's eye scraped by the island's southern coast. "We are very concerned about a wide variety of life threatening impacts in Jamaica," including storm surge, high winds and flash flooding, said Jon Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather. Porter called Beryl "the strongest and most dangerous hurricane threat that Jamaica has faced, probably, in decades." Jamaica was under a state of emergency and the island was declared a disaster zone hours before Beryl's impact. Holness said the disaster zone declaration would remain for a week. Beryl made landfall on the island of Carriacou in Grenada on Monday as a Category 4 — the earliest storm of that strength on record in the Atlantic — then late in the day its winds increased to Category 5 strength, meaning it had winds of 157 mph or higher. Mexico's Caribbean coast, meanwhile was getting ready for Beryl. Its popular Caribbean coast prepared shelters, evacuated some small outlying coastal communities and even moved sea turtle eggs off beaches threatened by storm surge, but in nightlife hotspots like Playa del Carmen and Tulum, tourists still took one more night on the town. Mexico's navy patrolled areas like Tulum telling tourists in Spanish and English to prepare for the storm's arrival. The head of Mexico's civil defense agency said Beryl is expected to make a rare double strike on Mexico. Laura Velázquez said the hurricane is expected to make landfall along a relatively unpopulated stretch of the Caribbean coast between Tulum and the inland town of Felipe Carrillo Puerto. Because the coast there is largely made up of lagoons and mangroves, there are few resorts or hotels in the area south of Tulum. On Wednesday, Mexican government officials moved sea turtle eggs off Cancun beaches in an attempt to protect them from storm surge. The hurricane is expected to weaken to a tropical storm as it crosses the Yucatan peninsula and reemerge over the weekend at storm strength into the Gulf of Mexico. Velázquez said that Beryl is then expected to hit Mexican territory a second time in the Gulf coast states of Veracruz or Tamaulipas, near the Texas border.
Hurricane Beryl strengthens back into a Category 3 storm as it nears Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula (AP) — After leaving a trail of destruction across the eastern Caribbean and at least nine people dead, Hurricane Beryl strengthened back into a Category 3 storm late Thursday as it chugged over open water toward Mexico’s resort-studded Yucatan Peninsula. The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Beryl, which was the earliest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic, now had winds of 115 mph (185 kph ) after weakening earlier Thursday.President Andrés Manuel López Obrador issued a statement saying Beryl may make a direct hit on Tulum, which, while smaller than Cancun, still holds thousands of tourists and residents. “It is recommendable that people get to higher ground, shelters or the homes of friends or family elsewhere,” López Obrador wrote. “Don’t hesitate, material possessions can be replaced.” Jack Beven, senior hurricane specialist at the U.S. Hurricane Center, said “the biggest immediate threat now that the storm is moving away from the Cayman Islands is landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.” The storm’s center was about 135 miles (220 kilometers) east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico, and was moving west-northwest at 16 mph (about 26 kph), the hurricane center said. Beryl was expected to bring heavy rain and winds to Mexico’s Caribbean coast, before crossing the Yucatan peninsula and restrengthening in the Gulf of Mexico to make a second strike on northeast Mexico. Over the past days, Beryl has damaged or destroyed 95% of homes on a pair of islands in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, jumbled fishing boats in Barbados and ripped off roofs in Jamaica before rumbling past the Cayman Islands early Thursday. Mexico’s popular Caribbean coast prepared shelters, evacuated some small outlying coastal communities and even moved sea turtle eggs off beaches threatened by storm surge.
Hurricane Beryl slams into Mexico’s coast as a Category 2 storm; 11 dead across the Caribbean (AP) — Hurricane Beryl roared ashore on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula near the resort town of Tulum as a Category 2 storm early Friday, whipping trees and knocking out power after leaving a trail of destruction that killed at least 11 people across the Caribbean.Beryl was expected to rapidly weaken to a tropical storm as it crosses over the peninsula before reemerging into the Gulf of Mexico and likely regaining hurricane strength, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Once in the warm waters of the Gulf, Beryl is forecast to head toward northern Mexico near the Texas border, an area soaked by Tropical Storm Alberto just a couple of weeks ago. Beryl spread destruction in Jamaica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Barbados this week after becoming the earliest storm to develop into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic. Three people have been reported dead in Grenada, three in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, three in Venezuela and two in Jamaica, officials said. After landfall in Mexico, Beryl’s maximum wind speeds dropped, but Tulum will continue to see “large and destructive waves,” the hurricane center said. The area faces heavy rainfall and potential flooding in the coming hours, according to forecasts from Mexico’s National Water Commission. Mexican authorities had moved some tourists and residents out of low-lying areas around the Yucatan peninsula before landfall, but tens of thousands remained to tough out the strong winds and expected storm surge. Much of the area around Tulum is just a few yards (meters) above sea level. The city was plunged into darkness when the storm knocked out power as it came ashore. Screeching winds set off car alarms across the town. Wind and rain continued to whip the seaside city and surrounding areas Friday morning. Army brigades roved the streets of the tourist city, clearing fallen trees and power lines. After seeing Beryl tear through the Caribbean, 37-year-old Lucía Nagera Balcaza was among those who stocked up on food and hid away in their homes. “Thank god, we woke up this morning and everything was all right,” she said. “The streets are a disaster, but we’re out here cleaning up.” Although no dead or wounded have been reported, nearly half of Tulum continued to be without electricity, said Laura Velázquez, national coordinator of Mexican Civil Protection. Once a sleepy, laid-back village, in recent years Tulum has boomed with unrestrained development and now has about 50,000 permanent inhabitants and at least as many tourists on an average day. The resort now has its own international airport. The storm’s center Friday morning was about 15 miles (25 kilometers) north-northwest of Tulum and moving west-northwest at 16 mph (about 26 kph), the hurricane center said. Beryl had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph), making it a Category 1 hurricane, In Corpus Christi, Texas, where officials are bracing for the chance Beryl could turn northward and bring with it possible coastal flooding, strong winds and dangerous rip currents, the city announced it had distributed 10,000 sandbags in less than two hours on Friday, exhausting its supply. The city had already distributed 14,000 sandbags Wednesday. Before the storm hit Mexico, official had set up shelters in schools and hotels. When the wind began gusting over Tulum’s beaches Thursday, officials on four-wheelers with megaphones rolled along the sand telling people to leave and authorities evacuated beachside hotels. Sea turtle eggs were even moved off beaches threatened by storm surge.
Dangerous Hurricane Beryl makes landfall in Mexico with Texas up next -- After carving a path of destruction and threatening lives in Jamaica at midweek, Hurricane Beryl's next stop will be in Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. AccuWeather meteorologists expect that steering breezes will then guide Beryl into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend before making another landfall in northeastern Mexico early next week with storm surge, flooding downpours and strong winds. Despite beginning to encounter some wind shear near Jamaica, Beryl remained a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph as it encountered the island nation in the central Caribbean. Loss of life and damage similar to that of portions of the Windward Islands are feared but may not be fully assessed until days after the hurricane's departure."Through the middle of this week, very warm waters and low wind shear allowed Hurricane Beryl to thrive while crossing the eastern and central Caribbean," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. Wind shear is associated with stiff breezes from one direction or shifting directions. When wind shear is strong, it can disrupt an established tropical storm or hurricane. A hurricane warning is in effect for Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula from Puerto Allen to Cancun. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula from north of Cancun to Campeche.Beryl's eye passed just to the south of the Cayman Islands, located west of Jamaica, at midday on Thursday with the wind intensity of 115 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane.As of mid-afternoon, Beryl's peak wind intensity had dipped to 110 mph while pushing away from the Cayman Islands, which makes the storm a Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson Wind Scale for Hurricanes. However, Beryl restrengthened to a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph for a time Thursday night. Early Friday morning, Beryl's wind intensity slipped slightly and became a Category 2 storm once again with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. As of 10 a.m. CDT on Friday, Beryl's maximum sustained winds were near 85 mph (Category 1) while over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, with the center about 680 miles to the east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas.DaSilva said Beryl had been able to create its own environment bubble into midweek. However, near the Cayman Islands, wind shear increased in the hurricane's path and reduced its peak wind intensity as anticipated.Beryl made landfall along Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale early Friday morning just northeast of Tulum."Beryl will lose wind intensity, but its impacts will remain significant [as it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula]," DaSilva said. Beryl's encounter with the frictional forces of the large land mass of the Yucatan Peninsula and wind shear will further degrade the hurricane's wind intensity from Friday to Friday evening. Because of the magnitude of rain, wind and storm surge, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico is a 2. Seas will continue to build on the northern and western parts of the peninsula and remain enraged on the Caribbean side. Dangerous storm surge flooding will threaten coastal communities. Widespread power outages and flash flooding are anticipated on the peninsula.Beryl's loss of wind intensity is likely to be temporary. Beyond the Yucatan Peninsula, Beryl will emerge over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Because several days have passed since Tropical Storm Chris moved through the region, water temperatures will have recovered enough to support some increase in wind intensity once again.At this time, AccuWeather meteorologists expect Beryl to make another landfall near the Texas and Mexico border Sunday evening to early Monday.Changes in forward speed and the angle at which Beryl approaches the coast will determine the precise time of landfall. For example, Beryl could stall or turn more to the north, paralleling the coast at the last minute before landfall as steering breezes decrease.Wind shear may ease while Beryl is over the southwestern Gulf. Factoring in lessening wind shear, warm water and access to tropical moisture, AccuWeather meteorologists believe that Beryl may regain hurricane intensity after spending some time as a tropical storm from Friday to Saturday.The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the United States (Texas) is a 1. However, how much strength Beryl regains over the southwestern Gulf this weekend before landfall, as well as a reduction in forward speed, will affect the magnitude of impacts in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas."A significant factor to consider is that Beryl's forward speed is likely to slow," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.Beryl's forward speed was down 25% to 15 mph as of Friday morning, after cruising along much of the Caribbean at 20 mph. The anticipated slower forward speed will increase the duration of wind, pounding surf and storm surge in northeastern Mexico and a large part of the Texas coast. Once the storm drifts inland, the risk of flooding rainfall will also increase.
Hurricane Watch Issued As Beryl Enters The Gulf | Weather.com --Hurricane watches have been issued for much of the Texas Coast as Beryl turns its sights on Texas after battering Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. All residents in Texas should monitor the progress of Beryl.Current status: Beryl moving through the southern Gulf of Mexico after crossing Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Beryl made landfall there early Friday morning with estimated winds of 110 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was the peninsula's strongest hurricane since Hurricane Delta in Oct. 2020. Beryl is now a tropical storm.Wind gusts up to 81 mph were clocked just south of Playa del Carmen in the core of Beryl Friday morning. A gust to 48 mph was clocked on Isla Mujeres, just offshore of Cancún. Here's where watches and warnings are in effect:
- Hurricane Watch: From the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to San Luis Pass, Texas. This means that hurricane conditions (winds 75+ mph) are possible by Monday morning in these locations.
- Storm Surge Watch: from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to High Island, Texas, including Corpus Christi and Galveston Bay. This means that life-threatening storm surge flooding is possible.
Timeline highlights:
- Friday night: Conditions will improve in the Yucatán Peninsula, however, some lingering winds and bands of locally heavy rain are possible. Beryl is losing strength because of wind shear and land interaction, but some restrengthening is expected to begin Saturday.
- This weekend: Beryl is expected to be pulled northwestward through the Gulf of Mexico toward the Mexico or Texas coast. Intensification is expected.
- By Late Sunday: preparations along the Texas coast for hurricane conditions should be completed.
- Monday: Landfall is expected somewhere on the Texas coast with damaging winds, storm surge, heavy rain and a few tornadoes.
Beryl is now moving northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico and is being steered by a heat dome over the Southeast U.S.Beryl will take advantage of lower pressures over the Central U.S. to take a northwest curl in the western Gulf of Mexico toward Texas' Gulf Coast sometime early Monday. There is some chance Beryl could slow down its forward speed either near or after landfall.The forecast for Beryl has been gradually drifting toward the right (or east) over the last 24 hours or so. The intensity forecast has increased as Beryl reaches the northwestern Gulf and the threat of a hurricane landfall is increasing.Well ahead of Beryl, onshore winds could lead to increasing surf, rip currents and coastal flooding along parts of the Gulf Coast from eastern Mexico to Texas beginning as soon as Friday evening, continuing until just after Beryl's final landfall. The rip current threat could even extend farther east along the northern Gulf Coast, as well.le: The most likely area for destructive winds is along the Central and South Texas coasts, including Brownsville and Corpus Christi. Hurricane conditions are possible anywhere in the hurricane watch area.These winds will arrive late Sunday into early Monday, then continue on Monday.A few tornadoes are also possible near and to the east of where Beryl makes landfall.
Violent storms hit Switzerland, France and Italy, leaving at least 7 people dead - Violent storms hit Switzerland, France, Austria, and Italy on June 29 and 30, 2024, resulting in at least seven fatalities. The storms caused flash floods, landslides, and widespread infrastructure damage, particularly impacting Switzerland and northeastern France. Severe storms swept over parts of France, Switzerland, and Italy on June 29 and 30, 2024, claiming the lives of at least seven people. According to local reports, the storms brought rainfall rates of as much as 27 mm (1 inch) per hour for about 2 to 3 hours, resulting in torrents of water, mud and debris rushing down the mountain, leaving catastrophic consequences. In Switzerland, four people were killed, and one more person is missing. In northeastern France, three fatalities were reported. Police in Switzerland reported that side valleys south of the River Rhone experienced particularly heavy rain overnight on June 30, causing severe flash floods that caught many by surprise. Camping sites along the Maggia River were evacuated, and part of the small Visletto road bridge collapsed. Further north, the Rhone River burst its banks in several areas of Valais canton, flooding a highway and a railway line. Three people died after torrential rains triggered a landslide in the southeastern, Italian-speaking canton of Ticino. A man was found dead in a hotel in Saas-Grund in the southwest canton of Valais, likely due to a sudden rise in floodwater. Another man is missing in Valais, according to police reports on June 30. In France’s northeastern Aube region, three elderly individuals, aged in their 70s and 80s, died on June 29 when a tree fell on their car during fierce winds. A fourth passenger was critically injured, as reported by the local authority to AFP. In Italy, floods, thunderstorms, and landslides affected various northern regions, particularly the Aosta Valley. Firefighters conducted approximately 80 rescue operations, evacuating dozens of people in the northern Piedmont region. Several villages were isolated due to overflowing streams, storms, and landslides in the Valle D’Aosta region.
Intense hailstorms wreak havoc across Croatia, Slovenia and Montenegro - Powerful thunderstorms swept through the western Balkans, beginning in Slovenia on July 1, 2024, and moving eastward. The storms brought strong winds, large hail and heavy rains, causing widespread destruction across Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro. Two people lost their lives. A powerful storm swept through the Western Balkans earlier this week, bringing large hail, strong winds, and torrential rain, resulting in widespread damage and two fatalities. The severe weather event began in Slovenia on Monday and moved eastward, impacting Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro. On July 1, in Zagreb, Croatia’s capital, hailstones “the size of tennis balls” pummeled the city during a dangerous thunderstorm. Red warnings were issued in Zagreb and Osijek, indicating a “possible danger to life.” The storm caused severe damage to buildings, with roofs destroyed by hail. Footage revealed the extent of the destruction, including damaged homes and travel disruptions. Trams in Zagreb were halted due to fallen trees on power lines and roads, and flights from Zagreb airport to Dubrovnik and Stockholm were canceled, according to flight-tracking tool Radarbox. Local media reported 30 emergency calls related to damaged homes. In Bošnjaci, Croatia, the worst affected ara, giant hailstones damaged roofs, facades, cars, and greenhouses, and destroyed crops. Firefighters responded to numerous calls, with 76 incidents requiring intervention from 296 firefighters and 120 vehicles. The storm affected Zagreb County, the City of Zagreb, Varaždin County, and Vukovar-Srijem County, causing tree falls and roof damage. Severe weather also led to significant flooding in Dugo Selo, approximately 16 km (10 miles) outside of Zagreb. Orange thunderstorm warnings remain in place for Dubrovnik, a popular tourist destination, while yellow thunderstorm warnings were issued along Croatia’s Adriatic coastline and parts of Slovenia. Agricultural damage is also high, and many farmers are saying they still haven’t received help for severe damage sustained during the extreme storm that hit Croatia in July 2023. In Slovenia, emergency teams responded to dozens of calls as egg-sized hail and winds destroyed windshields, power lines, homes, gardens, and farms. Over 1 000 firefighters joined emergency teams in Croatia, and a fire broke out when lightning struck a house in the village of Bošnjaci. In Montenegro, a worker died at a construction site in Canj, and another person was killed by a lightning strike in Lustica. The storm toppled construction cranes in Bar Harbor, wrecked beaches, uprooted trees, and inundated streets. The storm also left several villages in northwestern Bosnia without electricity, and cars and homes were damaged throughout the country.
Heavy monsoon rains hit Nepal, leaving widespread damage and 28 dead - With monsoon rains intensifying in Nepal, at least 14 people were killed in just 24 hours on June 25 and 26, 2024, raising the overall death toll to 28 since June 9 and causing significant property damage. Nepal’s Ministry of Home Affairs has reported 28 deaths over the past 18 days, marking a tragic start to the monsoon season. The fatalities include 14 people killed by landslides, 13 by lightning, and one by flooding. On June 26, Nepal’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA) released a cautionary warning as heavy rains reached caution level at 6 stations. “We recorded a total of 44 incidents on June 26. In those incidents, 14 people lost their lives, 8 due to landslides, 5 due to lightning, and 1 in flooding. 2 people are still unaccounted for in the incident of landslide while 10 people have sustained injuries,” said NDRRMA spokesperson Dijan Bhattarai. Landslides claimed 5 lives in Lamjung, 2 in Kaski, and 1 in Okhaldhunga on June 26 alone and 1 death was recorded due to flooding.
China’s Pingjiang hit by worst floods in 70 years - A ‘wartime’ emergency was declared by local authorities in Pingjiang, China’s Hunan Province after flooding in Miluo River went 7 m (23 feet) above alert level. Record flooding hit Pingjiang County, China’s Hunan province on July 1, 2024. Considering that it was the most severe flooding in 70 years, the local government has declared a “wartime” emergency. The Miluo River, which flows through Pingjiang County and eventually joins the Yangtze River, reached 77.7 m (255 feet) by 00:30 on July 2, said the county government. It was the highest water level recorded since 1954 — exceeding the alert level by 7 m (23 feet). Pingjiang, Hunan received more than 380 mm (14.96 inches) of rainfall in 24 hours, the water level of the Miluo River rose by more than 8 m (26.25 feet) in 24 hours, and floods poured into the county town. In nearby Miluo county, at least two villagers were reported missing after a landslide on July 1, according to state broadcaster CCTV. Heavy rains that brought widespread flooding in Southern China have battered the regions around the Yangtze River since June. A dyke burst into two sections along the upper reaches of the Miluo River in Pingjiang, flooding large swathes of the county, while reservoirs were overflowing. One-third of Pingjiang’s old town and half of its new town is underwater, Hunan Daily reported. Floodwater in some areas was said to be as high as 3 m (9.84 feet). More than 5 300 people have been evacuated so far, according to the Hunan government’s official website. Pingjiang has recorded 759.6 mm (29.9 inches) of rainfall since June 18, the highest for this period since 1961 when records began. The county’s Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters issued the highest-level emergency response and mobilized over 160 rescue teams, with over 15 500 rescue workers involved. Bus services were shut down in the county from 12:00 LT on July 1, while traffic was diverted from some highways in Yueyang. Heavy rains are set to continue lashing the county until July 3, with the weather bureau forecasting 80 to 120 mm (3.15 to 4.72 inches) of additional rainfall.
Severe floods and landslides ravage northeastern India - The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued red alerts for all northeastern states on July 2, 2024, forecasting heavy rainfall as several rivers cross danger levels. 16 people were reported dead over the last two weeks due to rain-induced landslides and 80 people have lost their lives so far all over Northeast. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a red alert for all northeastern states on July 2, forecasting heavy rainfall as severe flooding affects Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. The flooding is primarily caused by the rising water levels of the Brahmaputra River. The Red alert includes district-specific warnings, particularly for regions near the Brahmaputra and its tributaries. Floods and landslides triggered by heavy rains have killed at least 16 people over the last two weeks in India’s northeast, displacing more than 300 000 from their submerged homes. The Indian Army and Air Force have been assisting with rescue efforts in Assam, one of the worst-hit states. Early morning on July 2, a military helicopter rescued 13 fishermen stranded on a small island in the Brahmaputra River for four days. Heavy flooding in the states of Sikkim, Manipur, and Meghalaya has swept away roads and collapsed bridges. Since the end of May, more than 80 people across six northeastern states have died due to floods and mudslides brought on by the rains. The Brahmaputra River, which flows 1 280 km (796 miles) across Assam before entering Bangladesh, overflows annually. However, this year’s increased rainfall has made the river’s powerful and unpredictable flow even more dangerous.
Heavy rainfall causes 5 deaths and widespread damage in Nagaland, India - Rain-related incidents have claimed at least 5 lives and caused widespread damage in Nagaland, India in the past few days, according to an official release from the Nagaland State Disaster Management Authority (NSDMA). The extreme weather has destroyed houses, roads, bridges, and paddy fields across various districts. In Tuensang district, two boys from Kejok village were swept away at Ayong nullah on June 28. The body of one boy was retrieved the same day, while the search for the other was called off on June 30 with the consent of his father. On June 29, a youth was swept away in the Dzuvuru stream in Kohima district, but his body could not be retrieved. Another youth drowned in Nsonji Lake in Tseminyu district on July 1. The National Disaster Response Force was called in to assist with the search, and the body was recovered the same day. In Noklak district, a man was swept away by strong currents at Nguhaiu on July 1, and his body was later found. Several landslides were reported in the Mokokchung district, causing further damage to infrastructure. Public infrastructure in several areas of Kiphire district has been damaged, leading to the evacuation of multiple families. The Fakim-Tsundang area in the Pungro sub-division has experienced several landslides and road blockages, cutting off Penkim and Fakim areas from Tsundang, Sangtsong, and Vongtsuvong areas. Landslides have blocked the route to Thanamir in multiple locations. Soil erosion at Thusangki River near the Kiphire district headquarters on July 2 has also caused severe damage to paddy fields. In the Noklak district, landslides have been reported in the Punyaongan and Sanglao areas. Continuous rain has caused road damage and sinking between Chingmei and Noklak. In Zunheboto district, landslides destroyed several houses in the DC Hill West area, and flash floods in Zhavame village in Phek district damaged paddy fields. Shamator district faced partial destruction of the Shiponger and Muksuke bridges between the Cheshire and Y Anner areas due to a flash flood on July 2. In Peren district, a landslide on the Tening-Nsong road has led to debris obstructing the route, which is currently being cleared. The NSDMA is still compiling damage reports from various locations. It has urged District Disaster Management Authorities to remain vigilant and prepared, considering the extreme weather conditions. With rising water levels in many rivers due to continuous rainfall, the NSDMA has advised the public to refrain from fishing, picnicking, or engaging in similar activities during the monsoon season for safety reasons.
60 lives lost, hundreds of thousands displaced as widespread floods hit northeast India - The northeast region of India is reeling from catastrophic floods and landslides induced by relentless monsoon rains. The disaster has claimed at least 60 lives across multiple states, displaced hundreds of thousands, and caused extensive damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. The Assam State Disaster Management Authority (ASDMA) reported that six people, including two children, drowned on July 4, bringing the death toll to 52 since May. Over 2.1 million people have been affected across 29 districts, with more than 39 300 taking shelter in 247 relief camps. Western Assam’s Dhubri and northern Assam’s Darrang are the worst affected districts where 649 000 and 190 000 people have been displaced. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who visited waterlogged areas to assess the situation, stated, “The breaching of at least eight strategic embankments worsened the flood situation, largely caused by heavy rainfall in Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan.” He added that smaller equipment would be needed to clean the drains in Dibrugarh and mentioned issues of encroachment. I visited Tengakhat in Dibrugarh district. Floods have hampered connectivity and homes have been damaged. We are working on a war footing to ensure connectivity is restored at the earliest. #AssamFloods pic.twitter.com/Tq5tuh8jTQ The Kaziranga National Park and Tiger Reserve, has been severely affected, with floodwaters killing 31 animals, including 30 hog deer and one otter pup. Forest guards managed to rescue 82 animals, including a two-month-old rhino. “The situation improved in the last 24 hours with 95 of the 233 anti-poaching camps now underwater up to 1.5 m (5 feet),” a park official said. Floodwaters have damaged hundreds of roads, dozens of bridges, and thousands of houses across Assam and Manipur. Over 2 800 villages under 105 revenue circles remain submerged, with 39 451 hectares (97 477 acres) of crop area inundated in Assam. The water levels of the Brahmaputra River and its tributaries breached danger levels, causing massive destruction in nearby areas. “The flood situation in Assam’s Morigaon district is still grim as more than 55 000 people have been affected by the deluge,” said an official with Assam’s Morigaon District Administration. “Thousands of villagers are now taking shelter on embankments and roads after the flood waters entered their homes.”
Earthquake swarm underneath Kīlauea’s upper East Rift Zone, Hawaii - A significant earthquake swarm is taking place underneath Kīlauea’s upper East Rift Zone since June 27, 2024. The swarm, located beneath the Chain of Craters Road within Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, intensified on June 30, with around 30 events per hour. As per the latest update at 11:43 UTC on June 30, Kīlauea’s Volcano Alert Level is at Advisory and Aviation Color Code at Yellow. The intensity of seismicity escalated late on June 29 (LT) — early June 30 — with earthquake rates reaching approximately 30 events per hour, according to the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). Most earthquakes are centered in the region between Puhimau Crater and the Hilina Pali Road intersection at depths of 1.5 – 3 km (1 – 1.8 miles). Additionally, the seismic activity extends north toward Keanakākoʻi Crater and south to Pauahi Crater. The largest earthquake in this swarm was an M3.0 event at 11:03 UTC on June 30 just north of Hiʻiaka Crater at a depth of 3 km (2 miles). Despite the increased seismicity, no significant changes in ground deformation have been observed. “Following the eruption on June 3, 2024, magma has been repressurizing the storage system beneath Halemaʻumaʻu and the south caldera region, activating earthquakes in the upper East Rift Zone and in the caldera south of Halemaʻumaʻu,” HVO volcanologists said. “At this time, it is not possible to say whether this increase in activity will lead to an intrusion or an eruption in the near future, or simply continue as seismic unrest at depth.” Previous eruptions and intrusions beneath the upper East Rift Zone have occurred in the vicinity of Pauahi Crater and Hiʻiaka Crater to the southeast and around Luamanu and Keanakākoʻi Craters at the margin of the caldera. This region erupted several times during the 1960s and 1970s. The most recent eruption took place over a single day in November 1979 within and near Pauahi Crater. “Currently, there is no indication that magma is moving towards the June 3, 2024, eruption site southwest of the caldera. However, changes in the character and location of unrest can occur quickly, as can the potential for eruption.”
Vigorous steaming at White Island volcano, New Zealand - --Vigorous steaming was observed at the Whakaari / White Island volcano on July 3, 2024. The steaming increased during the morning hours (LT) and is now more visible from the coast. New Zealand’s GeoNet said this activity is not unexpected, as the volcano remains in a heightened state of unrest. The Volcanic Alert Level remains at 2 (moderate to heightened volcanic unrest). Under this level, an eruption may occur at any level, and levels may not move in sequence as activity can change rapidly. Eruption hazards depend on the volcano and eruption style and may include explosions, ballistics, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, lava domes, landslides, ash, volcanic gases, lightning, lahars, tsunamis, and/or earthquakes. The Aviation Color Code is Yellow. This is currently the only volcano in New Zealand with a color code above Green.
Red alert at Stromboli volcano after increased activity, large pyroclastic flows, Italy - (embedded twitter videos) A gradual increase in activity was observed at Stromboli volcano starting at around 17:30 UTC on July 3, 2024. By July 4, a new lava flow and pyroclastic flows were recorded, reaching the coastline and spreading into the sea. At 18:00 UTC, the Department of Civil Protection raised the alert level for the volcano from Orange to Red and transitioned to the pre-alarm operational phase. A gradual increase in activity was observed at Stromboli volcano at around 17:30 UTC on July 3. This activity further increased at around 18:20, reaching the most energetic seismicity at around 18:40 UTC. At 18:46, a flow of incandescent material was recorded, quickly spreading along the Sciara del Fuoco, reaching the coastline, and flowing into the sea. A new well-fed lava flow from the North crater area was observed starting at 14:10 UTC on July 4. This flow was produced by a mouth at an altitude of 700 m (2 300 feet) above sea level, spreading along the Sciara del Fuoco. The phenomenon resulted in the formation of pyroclastic flows and the rolling of lava material up to the coastline. Another pyroclastic flow was observed at 16:18 UTC on July 4. This PDC quickly developed along the Sciara del Fuoco, reaching the coastline and extending several hundred meters into the sea. The lava flow produced from the mouth at 700 m (2 300 feet) above sea level reached the coastline around 15:30 UTC and continued to be well-fed. A column of ash rising from the Sciara del Fuoco reached a height of about 2 km (6 560 feet) a.s.l., as reported by INGV at 16:47 UTC. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 15:43 UTC.
Violent lava fountaining at Etna volcano, Italy - A phase of violent lava fountaining started at Etna’s Voragine crater during the afternoon hours (UTC) of July 4, 2024. At the same time, significantly increased activity is being observed at Stromboli volcano. Strombolian activity that started on June 13 – 14, 2024, at Etna’s Voragine crater slowly intensified over the past few days and has intensified significantly in the late morning (LT) of July 4. This activity was accompanied by two lava flows, which began in the previous days, produced by two mouths placed respectively on the south-eastern side and on the north-western side of the debris cone inside the crater, INGV volcanologists reported at 14:20 UTC today. This activity evolved into an intense lava fountaining (paroxysm), producing ash column up to 4.5 km (14 700 feet) a.s.l, INGV reported at 16:17 UTC. The Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 15:31 UTC. Ash cloud was observed drifting SE and ashfall was reported on the volcano’s SE flank and up to Catania. Interestingly, Stromboli volcano is also exhibiting significantly increased activity today. Its Aviation Color Code was raised to Red at 15:43 UTC.
Russian RESURS-P1 satellite breaks in orbit, releasing over 180 pieces of trackable debris and forcing ISS astronauts to take shelter - Russian decommissioned satellite Resurs-P1 broke up in orbit on June 26, 2024, releasing roughly 100 pieces of trackable debris. The number rose to 180 by the end of June 27 and is expected to keep rising, according to LeoLabs. Following the breakup, NASA instructed the 9 astronauts aboard the International Space Station (ISS) to take shelter in their respective spacecraft as a standard precautionary measure. Although no immediate danger was observed, shortly after 01:00 UTC on June 27, NASA instructed the 9 astronauts aboard the ISS to head to their 3 respective spacecraft for shelter as a standard precautionary measure. Mission control observed the path of the debris and gave the astronauts clearance to exit the spacecraft and the station resumed normal functions after about an hour. The approximately 6 000 kg (13 000 pounds) satellite was in a nearly circular orbit at about 355 km (220 miles) at the time of the event, according to Leo Labs, a California-based company that provides collision avoidance service and real-time conjunction alerts for satellite operators. “We will continue to monitor the resulting debris cloud and provide more details in the near future,” a Leo Labs representative said. On June 27, LeoLabs said that it had been tracking at least 180 debris from Resurs-P1 and it expects that number to increase in the coming days. “We are actively analyzing the debris cloud to characterize it, identify a potential cause, and estimate the impact,” the company said. While the cause of the breakup is yet to be determined, Resurs-P1 ceased boosting orbit in 2017 and was reported to be functioning until September 2021. The satellite was finally taken out of service at the end of December 2021 due to failure of onboard equipment. According to SpaceNews, there has been speculation that the spacecraft was hit by a Russian anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon in a test like the one in November 2021, when ASAT struck Cosmos 1408, creating nearly 1 800 pieces of tracked debris.
30 Iowa GOP lawmakers oppose Summit carbon capture pipeline approval -- Opponents to Summit's planned carbon-capture pipeline appear to have found unlikely allies after more than 30 Republicans legislators condemned the Iowa Utilities Board’s approval of the project, pledging to “oppose this proposal at every step.” "Today is a dark day for anyone who owns property in Iowa. Indeed, it’s a dark day for our constitution and potentially for the Iowa way of life. We could not be more disappointed that the Iowa Utilities Board, despite overwhelming compelling evidence to the contrary, found that the Summit carbon-dioxide pipeline scheme is somehow in the 'public interest and necessity,'" according to a press release written by Rep. Charley Thomson, R-Charles City. The statement called the IUB’s actions “lawfare being waged against ordinary Iowans.” “In today’s action, the IUB departs from important constitutional norms in a way that threatens every farm, every house and every person in our state. A line has been crossed. Opponents of carbon capture pipelines clap during a rally on Wednesday, March 22, 2023, at the Iowa State Capitol in Des Moines, Iowa. “We are carefully reviewing today’s decision in light of the docket, Iowa statutes, and the state and federal constitutions to develop the next steps in the courts and in the General Assembly in response to today’s developments. Iowans can be assured this is not the final word on this issue,” according to the press release released on behalf of the 30 Republican lawmakers. Iowa House Speaker Pat Grassley, R-New Hartford, also weighed in issuing his own statement. "Iowa House Republicans believe landowner rights are one of our highest priorities. We passed two (one in the 2023 session and one in 2024) different bills that would have defended these rights as it pertains to eminent domain,” Grassley wrote, referring to bills that ultimately weren’t taken up by the Senate.
In Michigan, homeowners associations can’t stop rooftop solar anymore - Canary Media -- When a homeowner decides to get solar panels, it sets off a series of to-dos. They have to find a contractor, make sure their roof is ready, and — for some of the millions of Americans living under homeowners’ associations (HOAs) — make sure their neighbors won’t complain about the shiny new additions to their roof. Until now, the latter reason could have prevented 1.4 million Michiganders from saving money on utility bills and cutting their reliance on fossil fuels by using rooftop solar. HOAs govern housing communities and enforce rules for residents aimed at keeping common aesthetics, meaning they could say no to solar for reasons as simple as not liking the way the panels look. A bill passed last month will prohibit HOAs in the state from banning rooftop solar and other energy efficiency updates, like heat pumps, electric vehicle chargers, and clotheslines. Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, is expected to sign the legislation into law in the coming days, allowing Michigan to officially join 29 other states and Washington, D.C., in taking away this barrier to rooftop solar adoption. While it’s a shift that applies only to a specific group of homeowners, laws like these help make solar accessible for the roughly 75.5 million people in the United States who live in communities governed by HOAs. HOA policies have significantly limited solar business in Michigan, said John Jevahirian, vice president of operations at solar installer Michigan Solar Solutions. His team is already preparing to call up customers who weren’t able to get rooftop solar when they wanted it — some of whom made it all the way to signing a contract, only to find out at the last minute that their HOA wouldn’t allow it, he said. Michigan isn’t exactly a hotspot for solar; it ranks 26th in the nation for solar capacity, with1,457 megawatts installed — most utility-scale. While the number of larger-scale installations has risen in the past few years, residential solar adoption has stayed relatively flat. Jevahirian said he expects the state’s rooftop solar market “will see a swing, a legitimate change in adoption from this.” But whether or not the bill ends up providing a significant boost to residential solar adoption in Michigan, it’s certain to do one thing: allow all homeowners in the state to make their own decisions about solar adoption.
Shell Halts Construction at Dutch Biofuel Facility - Shell plc subsidiary Shell Nederland Raffinaderij B.V. has paused on-site construction work at its biofuel facility in the Netherlands. Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Rotterdam has a production capacity of 820,000 metric tons of biofuel per year. The project will be paused “to address project delivery and ensure future competitiveness given current market conditions,” according to a recent news release. “Temporarily pausing on-site construction now will allow us to assess the most commercial way forward for the project,” Shell Downstream, Renewables and Energy Solutions Director Huibert Vigeveno said. “We are committed to our target of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, with low-carbon fuels as a key part of Shell’s strategy to help us and our customers profitably decarbonize,” Vigeveno stated. “And we will continue to use shareholder capital in a measured and disciplined way, delivering more value with less emissions”. According to the release, contractor numbers will be reduced on site as activities slow down, which will help control costs and optimize project sequencing. An impairment review will be conducted for this project, Shell said. In September 2021, Shell made a final investment decision to build an 820,000-metric-ton-per-year biofuels facility at the Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Rotterdam. It was formerly known as the Pernis refinery. The facility was built to be among the biggest in Europe to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable diesel made from waste, according to the project announcement in 2021. The project was targeted to support Shell’s target of becoming a net-zero emissions energy business by 2050, aligned with the progress towards achieving the climate goals of the Paris Agreement. The facility was aimed at helping the Netherlands and the rest of Europe to meet internationally binding emissions reduction targets. It was expected to use technology to capture carbon emissions from the manufacturing process and store them in an empty gas field beneath the North Sea through the Porthos project. In June 2023, Shell announced that it planned to invest $10 billion to $15 billion from 2023 to 2025 to support the development of low-carbon energy solutions including e-mobility, low-carbon fuels, renewable power generation, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage, according to the release.
Exclusive: American Airlines, ZeroAvia step up hydrogen partnership -- American Airlines has entered into a conditional purchase agreement with hydrogen fuel cell aviation upstart ZeroAvia for 100 hydrogen-electric engines intended to power regional jets with zero in-flight emissions.American sees ZeroAvia's engines as a potential game-changer for powering its regional flights.Aviation is a growing source of greenhouse gases, with limited options for cutting emissions. This is American's first engine order from ZeroAvia, in which it has been investing since 2022.The Dallas-based airline is also investing an undisclosed additional sum in the company, according to details shared exclusively with Axios. ZeroAvia is developing hydrogen-electric, or fuel cell-powered, engines for commercial aircraft that it says can reduce in-flight emissions to close to zero, other than water vapor.Such engines use hydrogen in fuel cells to generate electricity, which then is used to power motors on an aircraft's engines. The emissions from such engines are meant to just be water vapor, rather than the pollution from traditional jet engines, which emit a range of planet-warming greenhouse gases. American is looking to ZeroAvia to provide cleaner propulsion systems for its Bombardier CRJ700 regional jet fleet.So far, ZeroAvia has been testing its next-generation engines on propeller aircraft, including a De Havilland Dash 8 and Dornier 228.It is developing a hydrogen fuel cell-powered engine for a Dash 8 Q400 aircraft in Everett, Washington in conjunction with Alaska Airlines. That facility will also be the hub of development activity for the CRJ700 propulsion system. Its agreement with American, though, would have ZeroAvia produce hydrogen electric propulsion systems to replace turbofan jet engines, which no one has yet done. However, ZeroAvia points to a technical study conducted with the regional jet's engine manufacturer, MHI RJ Industries, which pointed toward its feasibility. As of last year, American operated 140 CRJ700 aircraft with 65 seats each.American has a goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. That would heavily depend on a dramatic scale-up of "sustainable" aviation fuels, or SAFs, along with the use of cleaner-powered aircraft such as those that use hydrogen electric or all-electric power.
Leading hydrogen aircraft startup is suddenly grounded --Around this time last year, Universal Hydrogen was flying high. The startup had successfully flown a 40-passenger aircraft using primarily hydrogen over a series of trips from central Washington down to Mojave, California. The test flights marked a significant — if still very early — milestone in the broader global quest to decarbonize air travel.Universal Hydrogen apparently won’t get the chance to fly its plane again. Last week, the Los Angeles–based company informed shareholders that Universal Hydrogen is shutting down, having burned through the $100 million it raised from investors, the Seattle Times first reported. The company’s backers included GE Aviation, American Airlines, and the venture capital arms of Airbus, JetBlue, and Toyota.Mark Cousin, chairman and CEO of Universal Hydrogen, said the four-year-old startup had failed to raise further financing from new investors to develop its technology. It couldn’t convince existing investors to fork over more cash either.“We were unable to secure sufficient equity or debt financing to continue operations and similarly were unable to secure an actionable offer for a sale of the business or similar strategic exit transaction,” Cousin wrote in a June 27 letter to shareholders. “It is our sincere hope that these efforts will live on as part of a future entity,” he added. (Cousin didn’t immediately return Canary Media’s request for comment.)Universal Hydrogen was pursuing a two-pronged strategy for cleaning up passenger aircraft. First, it retrofitted existing, oil-burning planes with hydrogen-fuel-cell systems and electric motors. Second, the company was designing hydrogen storage containers that could be transported from hydrogen production facilities by truck or train, then deposited directly into an aircraft’s body — no pipelines required. “Our business model resolves the chicken-and-egg problem between hydrogen airplanes and hydrogen infrastructure by developing both in parallel, and with a uniquely low-cost approach,” Paul Eremenko, the company’s cofounder and former CEO, said in March 2023, following the startup’s first successful test flight near Moses Lake, Washington.
Will a new law and lots of cash be enough to jumpstart next-gen nuclear? -With the U.S. confronting the twin challenges of grid decarbonization and projected growth in electricity demand, a growing chorus of advocates is calling for the erstwhile nuclear leader to embrace atomic energy once again.The Biden administration has been hustling to subsidize nuclear projects since the early days of its term. A pair of recent moves from the federal government — a major funding opportunity for next-generation reactors along with a new bipartisan law meant to ease regulatory barriers — could provide a further boost to the moribund sector.Nuclear power, which provides about 19 percent of U.S. electricity, is one of the few issues that can unify the U.S. Congress; last month, the Senate voted 88–2 in favor of the Accelerating Deployment of Versatile, Advanced Nuclear for Clean Energy (ADVANCE) Act. The House of Representatives voted 393–13 to pass its version of the law in May. The act, which President Joe Biden is expected to sign into law, aims to simplify Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) rules and make it easier to license the next generation of reactors.The nuclear industry often blames the NRC licensing process for America’s struggle to build new nuclear power over the last 30 years. The act will reduce the onerous fees that developers must pay to go through the NRC process and allow the NRC more leeway in hiring the personnel needed to handle an increased pace of license applications. Beyond that, the act aims to boost American nuclear exports by spurring the agency to work with foreign regulators. It also requires the NRC to modernize its mission statement to acknowledge the benefits that nuclear power could provide for society in light of the climate crisis.In addition to this significant change in regulatory policy, the U.S. Department of Energyannounced last month that it will provide up to $900 million in funding to support the initial U.S. deployments of advanced small modular reactors.The intention is to support two “first-mover teams of utility, reactor vendor, constructor, and end-users or power off-takers” committed to deploying an initial plant while at the same time enabling a multi-reactor orderbook, according to the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, which will manage the funding allotments along with the Office of Nuclear Energy.The program applies to what are known as Generation III+ reactors, water-cooled systems that are similar to the 93 reactors currently operating in the U.S. This funding is meant to do more than pay for two initial projects: The goal is to break the “first of a kind” curse that plagues the American nuclear industry and pave the way for many more reactors to be built. In this, it shares a purpose with the ADVANCE Act, which is designed to spur utilities to order and build new reactors in bulk.According to the DOE report “Pathways to Advanced Nuclear Commercial Liftoff,” establishing a committed order book of reactors in the near term is critical to accelerating technology learning and making nuclear cost-competitive with fossil gas and renewables.“This bipartisan policy creates the framework for companies to start building that order book for a second project and a third project and ultimately get the NRC ready to license dozens per year,” Nicholas McMurray, the managing director of international and nuclear policy at energy policy group ClearPath, told HuffPost.Some climate groups criticized the new nuclear law.“Make no mistake: This is not about making the reactor licensing process more efficient, but about weakening safety and security oversight across the board, a long standing industry goal,” Edwin Lyman, the director of nuclear power safety at the watchdog Union of Concerned Scientists, said in a statement.
Ukrainian Drone Injures Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Workers -Ukrainian drones injured eight workers from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant while they were at a nearby electrical substation, Russia’s Rosatom nuclear power company said on Wednesday.The site of the substation is about 2.5 miles from the ZNPP, which has come under frequent Ukrainian attacks since it was captured by Russian forces in February 2022 during the first days of the invasion.“Ukrainian armed forces attacked the ‘Raduga’ substation, where at the time staff from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were working,” Rosatom wrote on Telegram.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) condemned the attack. It said that its experts based at the ZNPP saw “thick smoke and heard explosions coming from near the plant’s 750 kilovolt (kV) switchyard.”The IAEA said that as a result of the attack, the substation was out of service, but the ZNPP was still receiving the electricity it needed “to cool its six reactors in cold shutdown and for other essential nuclear safety and security functions.”IAEA Director Rafael Grossi said, “It is extremely concerning that these drone attacks are continuing, despite the very clear dangers they present to people in Enerhodar as well as to safety at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. They must stop, immediately.”The ZNPP is located in the town of Enerhodar on the south bank of the Dnieper River. Ukraine controls the territory on the northern bank of the river and has launched several failed attempts to retake the ZNPP.
Explosion at General Dynamics, one person medflighted to Little Rock | Camden News Calhoun County officials have confirmed an explosion at General Dynamics, which occurred early this morning at an unrevealed time. Calhoun County Judge Floyd Nutt told the Camden News one person has been mediflighted to Little Rock and others were taken to Ouachita County Medical Center. Ouachita County Sheriff David Norwood said that a "call to aid" was not requested, but said that helicopters had landed at Camden Municipal Airport. This is an ongoing story and will be updated as more details are known. --- General Dynamics has released a press release on the incident stating, " Today at 8:15 a. m. CDT, an incident involving pyrotechnics occurred at the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems facility in Camden, Arkansas. At this time, we are working with first responders and can confirm the incident resulted in at least two injuries and one missing individual." "We are cooperating fully with the authorities as they conduct their investigation." "We will provide more information as it becomes available." According to the company's webiste the Camden's facility, "Products include the Hydra-70 2.75-inch rocket, Hellfire and Javelin warheads, the Joint Airto-Surface Standoff Missile and the Modular Artillery Charge System. Camden Operations also produces high-explosive unitary, training warheads and various mortar rounds."
2 injured, 1 missing after explosion at Arkansas defense weapons plant - (AP) — An explosion at a defense weapons plant in Arkansas injured at least two people Wednesday and left another missing, the facility’s operators said. The explosion happened at the General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems’ plant in Camden, about 86 miles (138 kilometers) south of Little Rock, a company spokesperson said. The company initially called it an “incident involving pyrotechnics” but later confirmed it was an explosion. “At this time, we are working with first responders and can confirm the incident resulted in at least two injuries and one missing individual,” Berkley Whaley with General Dynamics said in a statement. “We are cooperating fully with the authorities as they conduct their investigation.” Whaley also confirmed that production was paused at the building where the explosion occurred. The company did not provide details on the extent of the injuries. The state Department of Emergency Management said it was monitoring and stood ready to assist but did not provide additional details. One patient was treated at the Ouachita County Medical Center’s emergency room and is stable, said Diane Isaacs, the hospital’s risk manager. Another patient was flown out of the state by helicopter, she said. The Camden plant houses more than 880,000 square feet of manufacturing and storage space, and it supports military programs such as the Hellfire and Javelin missiles and various mortar munitions, according to the company’s website.
ODNR Pledges to Begin Cleanup of Austin Master Services July 22 -- Marcellus Drilling News -Three weeks ago, the owner of Austin Master Services (AMS), American Environmental Partners (AEP), sent a press announcement to MDN to announce he has found a buyer for AMS (see AEP Announces Finding a Buyer for Austin Master Services). AMS is a radiological waste management solutions company in Martins Ferry (Belmont County), Ohio. The Ohio Attorney General lodged charges against AMS in March, accusing the company of storing 16+ times more drill cuttings at the facility than it’s rated for. A county judge ordered AMS to clean out the site and bring it back into compliance by July 22, or else AEP owner and CEO Brad Domitrovitsch is ordered to report to jail for a 30-day stint.
12 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jun 17 – 23 --Marcellus Drilling News --We didn’t bring you the latest permit numbers on Friday because the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection’s report website was down (again, for the umpteenth time). The site was back online this morning, so we ran our weekly query and discovered PA issued a whopping three permits for the week of June 17-23, all of them issued to Coterra Energy in (gasp) the township of Dimock! Yes, drilling in Dimock is back. Love it! In addition, Ohio issued nine new permits, with seven going to Encino Energy for oil drilling in Guernsey and Harrison counties. Ohio also issued two permits to Ascent Resources in Jefferson County. West Virginia issued no new shale permits for that period. ASCENT RESOURCES | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | ENERGY COMPANIES | GUERNSEY COUNTY | HARRISON COUNTY | JEFFERSON COUNTY (OH) | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY
SRBC Approves 7 Water Withdrawals for Shale Drilling at June Mtg Marcellus Drilling News The highly functional and responsible Susquehanna River Basin Commission (SRBC), unlike its completely dysfunctional and irresponsible cousin, the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC), continues to support the shale energy industry by approving water withdrawals for responsible and safe shale drilling. On June 13, the SRBC board approved 19 new water withdrawal requests within the basin, seven of them for water used in drilling and fracking shale wells in Pennsylvania. The Marcellus/Utica shale drillers (and one water company) receiving a green light from SRBC included BKV (3 requests), EQT, Keystone Clearwater Solutions, Seneca Resources, and Southwestern Energy.
Dividends from Drillers Remain High Even as Cash Flows Sink Lower -- Marcellus Drilling News Investors grew tired of putting money into oil and gas companies during the go-go early years of the shale era from the early 2000s until the early 2020s because O&G companies didn’t pay dividends, and their stock prices plunged in value, in some cases, 90% or more. Drillers got the message, and beginning around four years ago, there was a conversion to a new religion — the religion of free cash flow, dividends, and stock buy-backs. Shareholder returns soared to a peak of over 10% in 2022. But since then, prices (at least for natural gas) have tanked, and along with it, shareholder returns. However, O&G companies are still giving respectable (more than any other sector) returns to shareholders, even amid low commodity prices for oil and gas. Of the three sub-groups in O&G (oil-focused, diversified, and gas-focused), the gas group, of which most M-U drillers belong, is doing the worst with returns to shareholders.
MVP Lowers Gas Prices in Southeast, Raises Prices in Northeast On Friday, June 14, the 30mile Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) that runs from Wetzel County, WV, to Pittsylvania County, VA, announced the pipeline had, after a decade of planning and building, finally begun to flow Marcellus/Utica molecules (see Confirmed: M-U Gas Now Flowing Through Mountain Valley Pipeline). The effect of the molecules flowing through MVP has been profound and immediate, raising prices for M-U gas at the source and lowering the gas price at the destination.
Left Freaks Out Over Supreme Court Ruling re Chevron Deference -- Marcellus Drilling News --Yesterday, MDN brought you the news the U.S. Supreme Court rendered a decision that overturned a 40-year-old case establishing the leftist utopian administrative state, colloquially called the Chevron deference case (see U.S. Supremes Overturn Chevron Case, Reins in Leftist Bureaucrats). Now faced with the dismantling of their power (power derived via backdoor regulations), the left is, quite literally, freaking out. And they are doing so publicly, trying to scare the general public into thinking life as they know it will end. Life as the parasitic left knows it will end, but life for the common citizen will become dramatically better.In 1984, a Supreme Court case called Chevron v. NRDC gave broad powers to federal agencies like the EPA and other executive branch agencies to create, in essence, their own laws (called regulations) without any specific delegation of authority by Congress to do so. The case allows executive branch agencies to “color in between the lines” by saying that they are the experts and that members of Congress are too dumb to create specific laws to control things like “parts per million” for emissions, etc.The problem is, the bureaucratic weenies have gone FAR beyond the original scope of the Chevron decision and now make up their own laws whole cloth (with no input from Congress) because they believe they know better than you how you should live. Chevron has led to the radical loss of freedom. No more! Last Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court threw out the Chevron deference doctrine. This has HUGE implications for the entire oil and gas industry.The left is now freaking out, in print, about what the future holds for them. (They’re right to be afraid because their rule and reign are quickly coming to an end.)We have several stories to share that illustrate our observation about a mass freakout. The first is from the uber-left POLITICO and its environmental wing called E&E News:The Supreme Court’s decision Friday to give judges more authority over federal agencies creates new hurdles for the Biden administration as it seeks to promote low-carbon energy and address climate change.Forty years after the justices first decided Chevron v. NRDC, the high court opted to upend legal doctrine directing courts to defer to agencies’ interpretations of ambiguous laws, as long as the decisions were “reasonable.” Now, courts could have more say in interpreting rules on everything from EPA’s latest effort to curb power plant emissions to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s orders on transmission lines.“Where agencies appear to be carrying out sweeping and adventurous regulatory efforts to address our most pressing issues, that sort of effort is going to be immediately called into question,” said Joel Eisen, a law professor at the University of Richmond.The 6-3 decision written by Chief Justice John Roberts came after the court had curbed agency deference in a series of recent rulings, even as the Chevron doctrine continued to be applied in lower courts.Friday’s decision affected two cases — Loper Bright v. Raimondo and Relentless v. Commerce — and could have wide-ranging implications for a host of energy and environmental rulemakings.Along with affecting EPA’s power plant rules and FERC orders, the decision could also make it more difficult for the administration to defend its efforts to reduce climate-warming pollution from cars and trucks. It could complicate the already embattled Securities and Exchange Commission’s effort to force public companies to disclose more information about their climate risks.“In the short run, we expect a significant increase in regulatory litigation, including challenges to existing regulations, ongoing rulemakings and existing precedents,” said Gordon Todd, who co-chairs the regulatory litigation practice group at the firm Sidley Austin.
Europeans Presume to Impose Their Regulations on American Gas - Marcellus Drilling News -This one gets under our skin. The European Union’s idiotic methane regulations will soon come into full force, prompting oil, gas, and coal companies to monitor, measure and report their emissions. The same restrictions will also apply to energy imports. That impacts the United States, the EU’s largest liquefied natural gas supplier. In other words, the arrogant Europeans presume to tell us that we must follow *their* regulations! To which we say (multiple expletives deleted)…
Aethon Energy Takes Crown as Top Private Lower 48 Natural Gas E&P -- Aethon Energy Management LLC overtook Ascent Resources LLC as the Lower 48’s top privately held natural gas producer in 2023, according to new research by Enverus. Aethon Energy's lower 48 portfolio (map) Aethon’s gross operated natural gas production stood at 2.52 Bcf/d as of end-2023, up from 2.01 Bcf/d at the end of 2022. Ascent’s production held steady at 2.43 Bcf/d from 2.45 Bcf/d a year earlier. Dallas-based Aethon’s upstream operations primarily target the Haynesville Shale of North Louisiana and East Texas. Aethon recently completed the purchase of Haynesville assets of Tellurian Inc. It also signed a 20-year offtake agreement to purchase 2 million metric tons/year of LNG from Tellurian’s proposed Driftwood liquefaction project.
Aramco ups gas game with US project in hot pursuit of shoo-in to global LNG club’s kingpins - Saudi Arabia’s energy heavyweight Aramco is taking steps to spread its liquefied natural gas (LNG) wings in the United States (U.S.) with non-binding heads of agreement (HoA) for equity and offtake from a planned expansion project related to a natural gas liquefaction and export terminal in Southeast Texas. Once formalized, the project will pave the way for the Saudi giant to come closer to joining the top ranks of the global LNG playground’s players. After stepping into the global LNG market with a stake in MidOcean Energy, the Saudi player has worked on carving a spot for itself. To this end, the firm inked another HoA a few weeks ago to purchase 1.2 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG for 20 years on a free-on-board basis from NextDecade’s Train 4 of the Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) project at the Port of Brownsville, Texas. In a bid to further boost its gas arsenal and position in the LNG arena, Aramco executed a non-binding HoA with Sempra, a North American energy infrastructure company, for a 20-year sale and purchase agreement (SPA) for LNG offtake of 5 million tonnes per annum from the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 (PALNG2) natural gas liquefaction and export terminal expansion project in Southeast Texas with direct access to the Gulf of Mexico.In addition, acquiring a stake in the project is not beyond the realms of possibility for the Saudi giant, as the HoA further contemplates the firm’s 25% participation in the project-level equity of Phase 2. Sempra and Aramco expect to execute a binding LNG SPA and definitive equity agreements with terms substantially equivalent to those in the HoA. However, both of these are subject to several conditions.Nasir K. Al-Naimi, Aramco’s Upstream President, commented: “We are excited to take this next step into the LNG sector. As a potential strategic partner in the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project, Aramco is well placed to grow its gas portfolio with the aim of meeting the world’s growing need for lower-carbon sources of energy. This agreement is a major step in Aramco’s strategy to become a leading global LNG player.”Following a final investment decision (FID) for Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 in March 2023, Bechtel Energy was hired to build the project, which is currently under construction and consists of trains 1 and 2, with a nameplate capacity of approximately 13 mtpa, as well as two LNG storage tanks and associated facilities. The start of commercial operations for trains 1 and 2 are expected in 2027 and 2028, respectively.On the other hand, the Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 project is said to be a competitively positioned expansion of the site to include the addition of two trains capable of producing up to 13 mtpa. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the permitfor the expansion project with two liquefaction trains (trains 3 and 4) in September 2023. This project could lift the total liquefaction capacity of the facility to around 26 mtpa.
US weekly LNG exports reach 29 shipments - US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports reached 29 shipments in the week ending June 26, and pipeline deliveries to US terminals decreased compared to the week before, according to the Energy Information Administration. The agency said in its weekly report that 29 LNG carriers departed the US plants between June 20 and June 26. Citing shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, the EIA said the total capacity of these LNG vessels is 105 Bcf. The EIA did not release its weekly report in the prior week due to holidays. US LNG terminals shipped 25 cargoes in the week ending June 12. Based on the agency’s previous weekly reports, the 29 LNG cargoes sent during this week represent the highest number of cargoes this year. Natural gas deliveries to US terminals Average natural gas deliveries to US LNG export terminals decreased 0.4 Bcf/d from last week to 12.2 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 5.3 percent (0.4 Bcf/d) to 7.2 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 0.3 percent (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 3.8 Bcf/d. The agency said that natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d. Cheniere’s Sabine Pass plant shipped nine cargoes and the company’s Corpus Christi facility sent four shipments during the week under review. The Freeport LNG terminal shipped five cargoes and Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal shipped four cargoes, while Venture Global LNG’s Calcasieu Pass facility and the Cove Point facility each shipped three cargoes during the period. Also, the Elba Island facility sent one cargo during the week under review. Henry Hub up This report week, the Henry Hub spot price rose 6 cents from $2.39 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.45/MMBtu this Wednesday. The agency said the July 2024 NYMEX contract expired this Wednesday at $2.628/MMBtu, down 11.3 cents from last Thursday. Moreover, the August 2024 NYMEX contract price decreased to $2.745/MMBtu, down 10.9 cents from last Thursday to this Wednesday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging August 2024 through July 2025 futures contracts declined 8.5 cents to $3.268/MMBtu, the agency said. TTF averaged $10.75/MMBtu The agency said that international natural gas futures were mixed this report week. Bloomberg Finance reported that weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia increased 25 cents to a weekly average of $12.61/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Dutch TTF decreased 27 cents to a weekly average of $10.75/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending June 28, 2023), the prices were $11.96/MMBtu in East Asia and $10.72/MMBtu at TTF, the agency said.
With Many Unknowns, LNG Pause Could Set Back U.S. Projects By Several Years --More than half a year after the Department of Energy (DOE) halted non-free trade (FTA) agreement permits for new U.S. LNG projects, the length of the pause and the potential impacts to the export supply outlook are still pending. NGI chart showing commercially advanced NAM LNG projects impacted by DOE review. Immediately after the Biden administration ordered DOE to review its policies for authorizing more worldwide exports, the development timelines for at least 17 proposed liquefied natural gas projects fell into uncertainty. That list includes at least seven facilities proposed for the United States and Mexico that are commercially advanced, according to an NGI review of pending projects. Those seven projects amount to a combined 9.3 Bcf/d in export capacity previously expected to come online around 2030 that are now under increased risk for delays. However, “given there are many projects with non-FTA approvals in place, and pre-final investment decision (FID) stage projects outside of the United States, near term global LNG balances remain unaffected,” International Gas Union researchers wrote in the industry group’s latest annual report.
District Court Orders Biden Administration to Cancel LNG Permit Pause, but Quick Action Not Expected --A federal court has ruled the Department of Energy (DOE) should resume considerations for new worldwide LNG export permits while it reviews the impact of natural gas trade on the U.S. economy and climate. Chart showing commercially advanced LNG projects impacted by DOE review. On Monday, U.S. District Court Judge James Cain of the Western District of Louisiana issued a preliminary order and sided with 16 Republican attorneys general (AG) who filed a lawsuit after the White House ordered DOE to halt non-free trade agreement (FTA) permits. In his decision, Cain referred to the pause as an “export ban” using the same phrasing as Republican and industry opponents of the agency’s review (No. 2:24-CV-00406). While the Natural Gas Act (NGA) allows DOE to review policies for granting permits, the decision to halt considerations altogether in January was an “unlawful action” that harmed developers and states where projects were planned, Cain wrote.
Judge overturns Biden’s LNG export pause - A federal judge reversed the Department of Energy’s freeze on new liquefied natural gas export approvals Monday, handing a win to industry and red states that had challenged the Biden administration plan.Judge James Cain of the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Louisiana said in an order late Monday that DOE’s export pause would be “stayed in its entirety, effective immediately.”In January, the administration halted reviews of new LNG export applications to non-free-trade-agreement countries, saying it needed to review how to account for climate risks of projects before approving exports. The pause was praised by environmentalists who had been critical of President Biden’s record on fossil fuels. Monday’s court ruling does not force DOE to now approve LNG applications, but it does require the department to restart the process of considering them.DOE’s decision went against the language of the Natural Gas Act and was subverting “Congress’s determination that LNG exports are presumptively in the public interest,” said Cain, a Trump pick.The ruling came in response to a lawsuit filed by coalition of 16 Republican-led states, which claimed the administration had overstepped its authority when it launched the freeze.The department had said the pause would remain in place temporarily as it reviewed how it would account for climate risks when determining whether new gas exports were in the public interest. The freeze did not affect exports to non-free-trade agreements that had already been approved at the time.According to Cain, the Natural Gas Act instructs DOE to ensure “expeditious completion” of reviewing export applications.He acknowledged that DOE has previously used studies to update how it makes public interest determinations.But “the decision to wholesale halt the process of approving applications for non-FTA countries is a complete reversal of how the DOE processed these applications in the past,” he wrote.The pause affected exports for pending LNG projects, including Commonwealth LNG and Venture Global’s CP2 project in Louisiana, as well as the second phase of Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG project in Texas. In a statement, DOE said that it disagreed with Monday’s ruling, adding it “continues to review the court’s order and evaluate next steps.”DOE has noted that the United States remains the largest LNG exporter in the world, despite claims from opponents that the pause caused economic harm.The country has an operating gas export capacity of 14 billion cubic feet per day, with projects under construction that could add 12 billion more cubic feet per day in this decade, according to the department.DOE has also authorized another 22 billion cubic feet per day of exports from facilities that are not yet under construction and were not affected by the pause. Craig Segall, vice president of the climate advocacy group Evergreen Action, emphasized in a statement that the court’s decision would not determine what DOE could consider in deciding whether LNG export permits are in the public interest. “Pause or no pause, the science is clear: No sound analysis that accounts for the climate and environmental harm inflicted by LNG exports could possibly determine that these deadly facilities are in the public interest,” Segall said. Lauren Parker, an attorney at the Center for Biological Diversity’s Climate Law Institute, said “coupled with last week’s court rulings, rolling back the LNG pause shows that Trump judges are hellbent on torching environmental safeguards, the climate and our democracy.” West Virginia Republican Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, however, lauded the court’s decision late Monday. West Virginia was one of the 16 states backing the lawsuit.
Federal court lifts Biden's pause on natural gas export approvals - A federal court has halted the Biden administration’s pause on new approvals for natural gas exports. Judge James Cain, a Trump appointee in Louisiana, approved a request from Republican-led states to lift the pause while the litigation against it plays out. “The Court will grant Plaintiffs’ Motion for Preliminary Injunction, and order that the LNG Export Ban be stayed in its entirety, effective immediately,” Cain wrote. The Biden administration announced in January that it would pause approvals of new permissions to ship natural gas abroad to countries that don’t have free trade with the U.S. The pause did not impact existing exports. The Biden administration said the pause was being done in order to update the criteria on which it decides whether to OK new gas export terminals — including whether to revamp its considerations of environmental issues in that process. In his ruling, Cain said the states that challenged the administration’s move are likely to succeed in their case and that they will suffer irreparable harm if the pause continues while the case plays out. “The Court is convinced that the Export Ban will and is irreparably harming the Plaintiff States. Plaintiff States have submitted evidence of harm specifically to Louisiana, Texas, and West Virginia in the loss of revenues, market share, and deprivation of a procedural right,” he wrote. Those who sued over the pause cheered the ruling. “This is a big win for the country’s energy industry and the millions of jobs it supports against the attacks from the Biden administration to further its radical climate change agenda at the expense of our economy,” West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R), who is running for governor, said in a written statement. “The U.S. Department of Energy disagrees with today’s ruling. The Department continues to review the court’s order and evaluate next steps,” a DOE spokesperson told The Hill. The Biden administration’s move to halt the approvals of new LNG export facilities was supported by climate-focused organizations. Craig Segall, vice president of Evergreen Action, called Monday’s ruling “deeply misguided,” but said it would not stop the Biden administration from updating its criteria for new exports. “Pause or no pause, the science is clear: No sound analysis that accounts for the climate and environmental harm inflicted by LNG exports could possibly determine that these deadly facilities are in the public interest,” Segall said in a statement. The move also prevented the administration from having to make tough choices that could anger its base ahead of the November election.
Gas export projects likely to remain in limbo despite court ruling - New gas export projects will likely remain in limbo for many months despite a judge halting the Biden administration’s pause on approving such projects on Monday. The administration still has discretion in its review of new projects, and experts don’t expect it to approve any ahead of the November election, in which President Biden looks to face a closely fought rematch with former President Trump.Approving new gas export facilities would likely alienate progressive voters who already have a tenuous relationship with Biden and have raised concerns about gas’s environmental impact.“I don’t think it’ll have much impact at all,” Ira Joseph, senior research associate at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said of the order lifting the administration’s pause. Joseph added that the Energy Department “has the ability to review the license for non-[free trade agreement] approval for as long or as short as they want.”The Biden administration said in January that it would temporarily stop authorizing gas export terminals to ship fuel to countries that don’t have free trade agreements with the U.S., otherwise known as non-FTA countries. Opponents of the move sued, and Judge James Cain, a Trump appointee, earlier this week blocked the administration’s pause “in its entirety, effective immediately” while the litigation against it plays out.However, the Energy Department still has the right to review the projects waiting in its queue for non-FTA approval. In response to the ruling, the department said that it “continues to review the court’s order and evaluate next steps.” Meanwhile, the White House said that it is “committed to informing our decisions with the best available economic and environmental analysis.” Updating such analysis is the reason that it gave for the pause to begin with. Having the pause in place also made it unlikely that the Biden administration would have to issue any politically difficult decisions in an election year.The move won praise from climate activists, who had pushed the administration not to approve new gas export projects. Climate advocates’ opposition to the gas expansion is among the reasons why analysts say the administration is unlikely to approve any new projects in the months ahead.“There’s several constituency reasons for why the Biden administration wouldn’t want to move … any faster. One is, of course, environmentalists who think that exporting more [U.S. gas] is going to lock in fossil fuels,” “Two is also the domestic audience considerations — the more [natural gas] you export, the higher natural gas prices go in the U.S., and in an election defined by inflation, that’s not a button you want to push either,” Flakoll added.
US natgas prices fall 5% to six-week low on output rise, lower demand forecast (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% to a six-week low on rising output in recent weeks, forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and an ongoing oversupply of gas in storage. Analysts forecast there was still about 19% more gas in storage than usual for this time of year even though output reductions earlier in 2024 helped keep weekly injections below normal over the past seven weeks. That price decline came even though a heat wave blanketing much of the country for weeks will linger through at least mid-July, forcing power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. Looking beyond the current heat wave, analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics said "storm clouds remain on the horizon (for gas prices) with high gas inventories, rising gas production, and tropical demand destruction risks rising into late summer." Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.3 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $2.478 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 15. In Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the power grid operator for most of the state, said peak demand came close but did not break the record for the month of June last week, as had been expected. ERCOT, however, projects demand will break the July record on Tuesday as homes and businesses crank up their air conditioners to escape the heat blanketing the state. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 98.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in June, up from a 25-month low of 98.1 bcfd in May. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 16. With hotter weather expected next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 99.8 bcfd this week to 105.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants eased to 12.8 bcfd in June, down from 12.9 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. That decline was due to plant and pipeline maintenance at several facilities, including Freeport LNG and Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi in Texas and Cameron LNG, Cheniere's Sabine Pass and Venture Global's Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana. Feedgas to the 2.1-bcfd Freeport, one of the most watched U.S. LNG plants because it has a history of swaying global gas prices when it shuts, was on track to rise to 1.9 bcfd on Monday after dropping to an eight-week low of 1.3 bcfd on Sunday, according to LSEG data. That compares with an average of 1.8 bcfd over the prior seven days. Freeport told Texas environmental regulators that the second of three liquefaction trains tripped on June 29 due to issues with compressor systems.
US natgas prices slide 2% to 6-week low on rising output, lower LNG feedgas (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% to a six-week low on rising output on Tuesday, forecasts for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected due to lower liquefied natural gas (LNG) feedgas and an ongoing oversupply of gas in storage. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4.3 cents, or 1.7%, to settle at $2.435 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since May 15 for a second day in a row. In other news, a federal judge dealt U.S. President Joe Biden's climate agenda a setback by blocking the Democrat's administration from continuing to pause the approval of applications to export liquefied natural gas (LNG). Separately, Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick said they will seek to expand the Texas Energy Fund program to $10 billion to build more gas plants to meet the state's growing demand for electricity. In the spot market, next-day gas prices at the Waha hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in West Texas plunged by about 123% to a negative 52 cents per mmBtu for Tuesday as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian Shale. It was the third time in six days that Waha prices fell into negative territory during the current heat wave and the 20th time so far this year. Next-day Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six in 2020, none in 2021 or2022, and once in 2023. In the Caribbean Sea, Hurricane Beryl, an extremely dangerous major hurricane, will hit Jamaica on Wednesday before slamming into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, according to the latest U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) outlook. After marching across the Yucatan, the NHC projected that Beryl will weaken into a tropical storm on Saturday by the time it enters the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico, where Mexico produces much of its oil, before approaching the Texas-Mexico border on Sunday. Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to an average of 101.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July. That was up from an average of 100.1 bcfd in June and a 17-month low of 99.5 bcfd in May as many producers reduced drilling activities after prices fell to 3-1/2-year lows in February and March. U.S. output hit a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain hotter than normal through at least July 17. With hotter weather expected next week, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 98.5 bcfd this week to 104.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Cat 4 Hurricane Beryl Heads Towards Texas, Threatening Major Oil Refineries - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded Hurricane Beryl to a Category 4 storm from a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale on Wednesday morning. Beryl is the earliest hurricane on record to strengthen into a Category 5 as it churns across the southeastern Caribbean Sea. It is forecasted to hit the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday and afterward poses a threat to US oil and energy critical infrastructure on the Gulf Coast. NHC said Beryl's winds peaked at about 157 mph before weakening to 145 mph on Wednesday morning. Government weather forecasters expect "some weakening" of the storm over the "next day or two," however, it will still be a "major hurricane" as it impacts "Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands."On Wednesday, Mexico's Meteorological Service posted a hurricane warning for the coast of the Yucatán peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancún, with forecasted landfall on Friday. After the Yucatán Peninsula, Beryl's forecasted path heads directly to the Texas coast and is expected to move up towards Louisiana. This area is home to major US oil and gas refineries. Ahead of the storm, Shell announced Wednesday that it paused some drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Here's more from Bloomberg:
- Company also began evacuating non-essential personnel as precautionary measure
- Shell is also evacuating non-essential staff from the Whale asset, which is not scheduled to begin operations until later this year
- Production from the Shell-operated Perdido platform feeds into the HOOPS Blend, a medium sour oil with 29.2 API and 1.55% sulfur
- Oil from Perdido is delivered by the Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System (HOOPS) to the Quintana terminal, south of Freeport, Texas; from Quintana oil flows into the Houston refining hub but mainly to the Texas City area
"There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the progress of Beryl," NHC wrote in the most recent update. Computer models show the storm's future path along the Texas coast, which is home to 32 oil refineries. Refineries are critical for processing crude into products such as gasoline and diesel. "We have to wait and see where it lands," Mark Schieldrop, a spokesperson for the travel club AAA Northeast, told newspaper The Record. Schieldrop said, "But if the storm makes a direct hit to oil and gas infrastructure, it could cause prices to go up here if refineries down there are knocked offline for more than a few days." At the start of hurricane season, we penned a note titled "La Nina Will Complicate Things For Biden Ahead Of Elections As Hurricanes Threaten Oil Refineries," and that's exactly what could happen next week. All it takes is one major hurricane to disrupt major US Gulf Coast refineries, which could drive average gasoline prices at the pump to the politically sensitive level of $4 a gallon. Currently, AAA average prices of gas at the pump stand at... If Beryl causes refinery closures on the US Gulf Coast, the Biden team will have a whole lot more issues to deal with (currently, it's just chaos in Washington: ""No One Is Pushing Me Out" Biden Tells Staff As New NYT Poll Shows Trump Lead Widening").
1,200 gallons of oil removed from Flint River since spill last week (WJRT) - The investigation continues into how more than 1,000 gallons of an oily substance leaked into the Flint River last week. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley's office says authorities have removed about 1,200 gallons of an oil and water mix since the leak was reported one week ago from a storm sewer outfall in the 1400 block of James P. Cole Boulevard between Merrill and Wood streets. The flow of oil appears to have stopped, but absorbent booms deployed across the river remained in place Tuesday. The Genesee County Health Department's no-contact order for the Flint River between Hamilton Avenue and Grand Traverse Street remained in place Tuesday. Investigators are not sure what the oily substance is or where it entered the storm sewer system. Samples have been taken to a laboratory for identification and analysis. Results are expected within a week or two. The city also has traced sewer lines in the area to help determine where the oily substance originated. As of Tuesday, authorities had not identified a party responsible for the spill or issued any sanctions. The June 25 spill was the fourth reported along the Flint River in Flint over the past year. Environmental investigators are looking into whether the spills are a result of illegal dumping or soil contamination. The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes and Energy will assist the city with soil testing around storm sewer outfalls into the Flint River for any evidence of contamination entering the system. Anyone who sees someone possibly dumping into Flint's storm system should call 810-766-7079. A permanent absorbent boom has been placed across the river at the Utah Dam and another will be placed between Merrill and Wood streets to soak up any oil contamination from the water surface.
Permian Basin truckers protest over restrooms, unpaid hours — Low wages and working conditions that truck drivers describe as degrading have sparked an organized labor movement in the Permian Basin, a historic first for the nation’s busiest oil field.About a dozen truckers and local environmental activists descended Monday on three West Texas cities — Kermit, Mohanans and Odessa — and blocked entrances to sand mines with a row of cars to hand out fliers listing their demands to other truckers.Workers said the one-day demonstration, which slowed production in the nation’s largest oil supplier, was a sequel to a similar protest last year that was largely ignored and a warning of the steps they’ll take to be heard.The truckers are demanding to be paid for the long hours they spend waiting to load and unload frac sand — or sand used during fracking to separate the rock, prop it open and prevent it from closing — more restroom facilities near loading areas and the ability to negotiate pay rates based on driving times and cargo weight, said Billy Randel, a lifelong trucker and organizer with the Truckers Movement for Justice.“There are no bathrooms for the men and women to keep this economy running out here to use while sitting from two to four to 12 to 36 hours at the wellheads,” Randel said. “There's no facility to go to the bathroom. You know how dehumanizing that is for either a man or a woman to have to use a bucket? This is insanity.”Federal law mandates that drivers take a ten-hour break before beginning their shifts and may not drive for more than 14 hours straight afterward. After driving for eight uninterrupted hours, they must take a 30-minute break. And truckers may only drive for 70 hours within eight consecutive workdays, according to the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. The law says nothing about access to amenities like restrooms. Randel said there are loopholes in the law that can significantly prolong a driver’s shift. Truckers have to wait in hours-long lines at drilling sites to collect frac sand, for example, and the time they spend waiting does not count toward their pay.Drivers deal with similar wait times when delivering their cargo. Drivers can’t abandon their place in line, no matter how long the wait is — if they do they could be fined, suspended or fired.Many truckers also foot repair costs when their contracts do not include insurance.“I couldn’t afford tires or oil changes,” said Luis Ramirez, one of the protesters Monday. “My family’s suffering because of this. The money’s not enough.”Drivers made similar grievances last year in August. Approximately 20 truckers held signs outside sand mines in Kermit and refused to fulfill their deliveries for one day to pressure their employers into improving the terms of their contracts. They wanted pay for every hour they spent on the truck and demanded restroom facilities at every well site requiring sand deliveries. Two days later, about 30 truckers were fired from their jobs, workers told The Texas Tribune.
Eni to Sell Two Alaska Fields to Hilcorp -- Eni SPA has said it is divesting the non-strategic Nikaitchuq and Oooguruk fields in Alaska to Hilcorp Energy Co. “The value of the transaction will be announced upon its closing”, the Italian government-controlled Eni said in a brief statement. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals and other customary conditions. Nikaitchuq started producing January 2011. Located offshore the North Slope in a water depth of three meters (9.8 feet), the field is estimated to hold 200 million barrels of oil. It is Eni’s first operated asset in Arctic waters, according to the company. Oooguruk meanwhile began production 2008. It sits around five kilometers (3.1 miles) off the North Slope coast. “This transaction is consistent with Eni's strategy focused on the rationalization of the upstream activities by rebalancing its portfolio and divesting non-strategic assets”, Eni said. Eni cut its target net capital expenditure for 2024–27 by over 20 percent compared to last year’s plan. The new goal is to keep capital costs at EUR 7 billion ($7.5 billion) yearly during the period. The integrated energy company plans to execute capital discipline through “optimization, improved project quality and greater portfolio management”, Eni said in a statement March 14 announcing strategic targets for 2024–27. Announcing the Alaska sale, it said, “Within Eni’s financial framework, supporting the company’s distinctive growth-oriented strategy, Eni is committed to delivering a net €8 billion [$8.6 billion] of net portfolio inflow, front-end loaded, over the 2024-27 Plan”. “Proceeds are anticipated to come from three main sources: high-grading the upstream portfolio, diluting down high equity ownership exploration discoveries, and accessing new pools of capital via Eni’s satellite strategy to support the growth of its transition businesses while confirming progress in value creation”. Bloomberg reported Monday Eni is purportedly considering upstream disposals from its global portfolio to raise EUR 4 billion ($4.3 billion). On the radar for potential divestment are some operations in Cyprus and Indonesia, the news agency said, citing people familiar with the matter.
New shipping fuel requirements in Arctic risk worse oil spills, report says -- New shipping fuel requirements in Arctic risk worse oil spills, report says - The Arctic could face more severe environmental impacts from oil spills if shippers switch to very-low sulfur fuel oil following new, restrictive fuel regulations in the region, the Arctic Council said in a statement on Monday. Ships sailing through Arctic waters can no longer use or carry heavy bunker fuel oil as of Monday, following a new regulation from United Nations shipping agency the International Maritime Organization that aims to reduce pollution. The widely used alternative to heavy fuel oil is VLSFO. European shippers broadly opted for VLSFO in 2020 when the same regulation took effect there. If exposed to cold water in a spill, VLSFO forms clumps, whereas HFO remains liquid. Current oil spill equipment is not designed to collect oil clumps, Arctic Council working groups Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response and Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment have found. "We are not in a position to comment on specific studies. However, IMO welcomes submissions from Member States and international organizations to the relevant IMO body," a spokesperson for the agency told Reuters on Monday. Shipping traffic in Arctic waters rose by more than a third from 2013 to 2023, according to PAME, and the distance traveled by vessels more than doubled, raising the risk of a spill. "The IMO had the best intentions when they introduced the Heavy Fuel Oil ban, and it will no doubt make a positive environmental impact in many ways," expert and project lead for PAME and EPPR, Jon Arve Royset said in Monday's Arctic Council statement. "However, in the event of an oil spill, the new fuels being used as a result of this ban could have a far worse environmental impact than the old fuels they are banning."
U.S. Oil Production Extends Massive Lead Over Russia And Saudi Arabia -- In June, the Energy Institute released the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy. The Review provides a comprehensive picture of supply and demand for major energy sources on a country-level basis. Each year, I do a series of articles covering the Review’s findings. In two previous articles, I discussed the trends in global carbon dioxide emissions, as well as the overall highlights of the Review. Today, I want to cover the production and consumption of petroleum. The Review lists several categories of oil production. When the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports U.S. oil production, they are reporting crude oil plus lease condensate. The latter consists of light liquid hydrocarbons recovered in the field at natural gas wells. The Review reports oil production as the total of crude oil, lease condensate, NGLs, and oil sands. However, they report a separate category of crude oil plus condensate, which would be consistent with the EIA’s definition of oil production. The differences in definitions are why the oil production numbers and oil consumption numbers may seem inconsistent.For the first time, global oil consumption surpassed 100 million barrels per day in 2023. The demand for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene has returned to or exceeded pre-2019 levels, although there are variations across different regions. Global gasoline consumption slightly exceeded its pre-COVID level at 25 million barrels per day, while kerosene, despite showing strong growth of 17.5% in 2023, has not yet returned to its peak levels from 2019.Global oil production reached a record high of over 96 million BPD in 2023. The United States retained its position as the top producer, with an output increase exceeding 8.5%. This was a new record for U.S. oil production, smashing the previous record set in 2022.However, Russia experienced a decline in production by more than 1% due to the ongoing impact of international sanctions. Saudi Arabia, the other major global oil producer besides the U.S. and Russia, experienced a 6.6% decline from the previous year. This was attributed to ongoing voluntary production cuts from OPEC members.The Southern and Central American regions saw significant growth in their oil production, with an 11% increase, marking the highest growth rate of any region in the year as they continued to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.In the Asia-Pacific region, China’s oil production grew by 2%, contributing to about 57% of the total production in the region. China surpassed the U.S. as the largest oil refining market by capacity, reaching 18.5 million barrels per day, although its refinery utilization rate of nearly 82% was still lower than the U.S. rate of around 87%.In both the conventional categories of crude plus condensate — as well as the category that includes NGLs — the United States was the world’s top oil producer in 2023. The U.S. produced 15.6% of the world’s oil in 2023, extending its lead over Saudi Arabia and Russia.Here were the Top 10 producers of crude oil plus condensate in 2023: Although the U.S. enjoys a lead over Saudi Arabia and Russia of more than 2.4 million BPD, that lead is far greater when NGLs are considered. With NGLs included U.S. production in 2023 was 19.4 million BPD. That’s 8.0 million BPD ahead of Saudi Arabia and 8.3 million BPD ahead of Russia’s numbers in that category. Those are massive leads driven by the increase in U.S. natural gas production over the past two decades, which substantially boosted U.S. NGL production.
US crude exports to Europe hit two-year low in June - (Reuters) - U.S. crude shipments bound for Europe fell to a two-year low in June as European buyers bought cheaper regional and West African oil, traders and analysts told Reuters. Exports of U.S. crude to Europe slowed to 1.45 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, the lowest for any month since July 2022, according to data from ship tracking firm Kpler. That marks a 14% decline from May and down 27% from June 2023. The fall came as a result of a narrowing difference between the price of U.S. benchmark WTI crude and European benchmark Brent crude, as Brent futures fell at a faster pace on average through May than WTI, as North Sea crudes weakened. A narrow difference between the two makes it difficult to make a profit shipping U.S. crude to Europe. Total U.S. crude exports to all destinations were 3.94 million bpd last month, down from 4.21 million bpd in May. The bulk of the exports to Europe were WTI Midland crude, which has become a staple of European refineries' crude diets. The U.S. has become a major oil exporter due to the rapid rise in output that came with the shale revolution. Growing flows of WTI into Europe led to the grade's inclusion in the dated Brent oil price benchmark by pricing agency S&P Global Commodity Insights in 2023, meaning that fluctuating U.S. export volumes can have a wider significance on oil prices globally. West African grades became cheaper in May because of an overhang of supply, as Africa's top crude exporter Nigeria was in April struggling to offload cargoes for May loading, driving some sellers to reduce offers. Nigerian Bonny Light differentials to Dated Brent have been on a downward trend the last couple months, said Gus Vasquez, Americas crude editor at price indexing agency, Argus Media. That made West African grades more attractive than U.S. crude, said Patricio Valdivieso, Rystad Energy's vice president of oil markets research. A narrower WTI-Brent spread makes it cheaper for European buyers to import dated-linked grades on shorter haul voyages rather than cargoes from the United States. "The Dated complex was fairly weak, limiting Brent's ability to price in marginal U.S. sweets," said Energy Aspects analyst Richard Price. In May, when June-loading cargoes would have traded, WTI's discount to Brent narrowed in 15 out of 23 sessions, and hit its narrowest since October at -$3.95 per barrel on May 30, LSEG data shows. Taking freight costs into account, the WTI-Brent spread typically needs to average -$5 to -$6 per barrel for transatlantic arbitrages to be profitable, said Gus Vasquez, Americas crude editor at pricing agency Argus Media. Lower exports of WTI Midland and a flurry of buying by trading firms Gunvor and Trafigura tightened the European market in recent weeks. That is likely to lead to a recovery of exports from the United States to Europe in July and August. "The drop in U.S. crude exports has supported the value of Brent," veteran oil trader and director of Surrey Clean Energy Adi Imsirovic said. A stronger Dated Brent market has also coincided with a weakening of crude prices in Asia. "WTI Midland arbitrages are now workable to Europe but incredibly weak to Asia, which we expect to reroute WTI Midland exports towards Europe in July and August," Energy Aspects' Price said. Weaker prices for UAE crude Murban are pricing Brent-linked crudes and WTI out of Asia, according to Sparta Commodities analyst Neil Crosby. Increased Murban output has pressured prices for the grade, with its monthly average spot premium to benchmark Middle East Dubai quotes sinking to a one-year low of 83 cents a barrel for August-loading cargoes.
Atlantic LNG shipping rates climb to $87,000 per day, European prices steady --Atlantic spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) freight rates jumped this week, while European prices remained steady compared to the previous week.Last week, freight rates increased in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins.“Spark30s Atlantic rates continued to experience record week-on-week increases for 2024, rising by $12,000 to $87,000 per day and increasing by over $35,000 in the last month. This mirrors a similar rally seen in 2023,” Qasim Afghan, Spark’s commercial analyst told LNG Prime on Friday.At the same time, Spark25S Pacific rates are also starting to increase, rising by $4,000 this week to $51,750 per day, he said.“After an extremely steady period in April and much of May, Spark30S rates have increased by over $30,000 in the last month, amid increasing demand in the Atlantic basin and the US arb to NE-Asia (via COGH) remaining open for July and August,” he said.“Whilst the US arb to NEA via COGH is currently closed, the arb to NEA via Panama remains open for the next few months, continuing to apply upward pressure on Atlantic freight rates,” Afghan said.In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG front month was slightly up compared to the prior week.“SparkNWE DES LNG prices remained steady this week, with the front month price for July delivery assessed at $10.731/MMBtu and at a $0.12/MMBtu discount to the TTF,” Afghan said.He said DES LNG prices remain at “approximately the tightest discount to the TTF of the year”.Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that volumes in gas storages in the EU continued to rise and storages were 76.20 percent full on June 26.Gas storages were 74.34 percent full on June 19, and 76.33 percent full on June 26 last year.In Asia, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia, for August settled at $12.660/MMBtu on Thursday.Last week, JKM for July settled at 12.465/MMBtu on Friday.JKM rose to 12.610/MMBtu on Monday and to 12.735/MMBtu on Tuesday, while it dropped to 12.620/MMBtu on Wednesday.Several reports said this week that Egypt has awarded a large tender for LNG cargoes.S&P Global Commodity Insights said that Egyptian General Petroleum Corp., the parent company of EGAS, awarded a total of 20 cargoes on June 26.In addition to the original 17 cargoes, EGPC awarded three more cargoes, two of which were for August delivery and one for September delivery, S&P Global Commodity Insights said, citing an EGPC spokesperson.The company received offers from around 15 market players and the awarded tender comprised both fixed prices and TTF-linked cargoes.According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the price levels ranged between TTF plus $1.6/MMBtu and TTF plus $2/MMBtu.The awardees included Total, BP, Vitol, Trafigura, and Aramco, the report said.
Asian Demand Pushing Atlantic Basin Vessel Rates Higher — Hot weather in Asia continues to attract LNG cargoes from the Gulf Coast, which has created a lopsided shipping market. Charts showing European and Asian weather patterns. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal in Japan, South Korea and Southeast China over the next 6-10 day period, according to Maxar’s Weather Desk. Hot weather has blanketed parts of Asia and South Asia since the spring. Global gas prices have risen sharply since that time when the restocking season got underway. Both the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) and the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in Europe traded sideways last week. But the weather, plant outages and geopolitical risks have kept JKM near $13/MMBtu, or about $2 higher than European gas prices.
China Driving Asian LNG Import Surge as Mexico Liquefaction Projects Advance --Asian LNG imports rose by 10.5 million metric tons (mmt) in 2023 versus 2022, the largest year/year change for any market, according to the International Gas Union’s (IGU) newly published 2024 World LNG Report. China regained its spot as the world’s top importer at 71.2 mmt in 2023, up 11.95% from 2022. India saw an increase of 9.7% to nearly 22.0 mmt, while new importers Vietnam and the Philippines added their names to the list of liquefied natural gas-thirsty consumers in Southeast Asia. The trend supports the business case of the dozen or so LNG export terminals proposed for Mexico, most of which plan to re-export U.S. pipeline gas to the Asia Pacific market from Mexico’s Pacific Coast.
Carlyle Creating Natural Gas-Rich Mediterranean Portfolio, with Former BP Chief at Helm - Global investment firm Carlyle is leveraging its expertise in carving out exploration and production (E&P) assets by building a standalone natural gas-weighted business focused in Croatia, Egypt and Italy. Map of Middle Eastern natural gas connectivity. The binding transaction with London-based Energean plc is estimated to be worth more than $900 million. Energean’s portfolio is 80% weighted to natural gas. Carlyle plans to use the assets to develop more resources in the Mediterranean, an area teeming with natural gas prospects. Croatia, Egypt and Italy “are actively encouraging new gas development, which we believe will play a central role in the energy transition,” Carlyle International Energy Partners (CIEP) co-head Bob Maguire said.
China completes its largest LNG storage base -- A subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has completed the construction of China's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) storage base, a move that aims to ensure energy security and support green growth in the Yangtze River economic belt. The base in the city of Yancheng, east China's Jiangsu Province, has a group of gas tanks with a combined LNG storage capacity of 2.5 MMm3, the company said. It has four tanks each with a storage capacity of 220,000 m3 and six larger tanks each with a storage capacity of 270,000 m3. Li Feng, vice president of CNOOC Gas and Power Group, said the base is connected to the country's major gas pipelines and provides supplies to provinces including Jiangsu, Henan, Anhui and Shandong. Once fully operational, the base will have the capacity to process up to 6 metric MMtpy of LNG, equivalent to 8.5 Bm3 of natural gas. This volume is enough to sustain residential gas needs in Jiangsu Province, which has a permanent population of about 85 MM, for about 28 months.
Aramco Doubles Down on Saudi Arabia’s Natural Gas Outlook with $12.4B Jafurah Field Development --State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., better known as Aramco, is moving forward with a multi-billion dollar project to boost natural gas production, and possibly fuel its export ambitions. Aramco has awarded 16 contracts, worth a combined $12.4 billion, and initiated the second phase of its plan to tap more natural gas resources in the Jafurah gas field near Saudi Arabia’s northeast coast. It also secured 23 gas rig contracts worth $2.4 billion and two directional drilling contracts worth $612 million. In anticipation of expanded gas supply, Aramco awarded another $8.8 billion in contracts to expand its “master gas system” used to transport the fuel across Saudi Arabia.
Russian Government Oil Revenue Was Up Almost 50Pct in June - Russia’s government revenue from the oil industry was almost 50% higher in June compared with a year earlier as the nation’s producers adapted to international sanctions and obtained higher prices for their crude exports. Oil-related taxes jumped to 590.6 billion rubles ($6.7 billion) last month compared with 402.8 billion rubles in June 2023, according to Bloomberg calculations based on Finance Ministry data. Total oil and gas revenue rose by 41% to 746.6 billion rubles, the ministry said. The spike follows higher prices for Urals crude, Russia’s key export blend, as well as weaker ruble. The Finance Ministry calculated June taxes based on a Urals price of $67.37 a barrel, up from $53.50 a year ago. At the same time, Russia’s currency depreciated by 15% in the calculated tax period from year earlier to 90.88 per US dollar, contributing to higher budget revenues. Russia’s crude has been trading above a $60 price cap imposed by the Group of Seven industrialized nations. The measure was intended to reduce the inflow of petrodollars and limit Kremlin’s ability to finance its war against Ukraine, while still keep Russian oil on the global market. The G-7 threshold, which limits access to Western shipping and insurance, was combined with a European ban on the most imports of Russian crude and petroleum products. Moscow has adapted to these restrictions by using a massive shadow fleet of tankers and re-directing its oil flows to non-western buyers, mainly in Asia. The Russian state budget’s oil proceeds would have been higher in June if they hadn’t been dented by big state subsidies to the nation’s refiners. The government paid out over 158 billion rubles to fuel producers for domestic supplies of diesel and gasoline, according to the Finance Ministry. The payments partially compensate refiners for the difference in car fuel prices in Russia and abroad. In the first half of the year, Russia’s budget oil and gas revenue rose by over two thirds from the same period a year ago to almost 5.7 trillion rubles, according to the Finance Ministry’s data. The nation expects to receive 10.99 trillion rubles from the industry this year.
Overall OPEC Production Steady while Some Members Exceed Limits --OPEC’s crude production remained steady for a third month, while some key members continued to pump above agreed limits. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced an average of 26.98 million barrels a day in June, or 80,000 a day less than during the previous month, according to a Bloomberg survey. Small reductions in Iraq and Nigeria drove the decline. The survey showed that Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have yet to fully implement cutbacks agreed in tandem with other leading members at the start of this year. Baghdad has also failed to follow through on additional compensation curbs pledged to offset earlier cheating. The cuts by OPEC and its partners, spearheaded by group leader Saudi Arabia, have had some success in balancing global markets against a tide of new supplies from the US and other parts of the Americas. Brent crude futures are trading near $87 a barrel, close to the highest in almost two months. The recovery — while potentially painful for consumers still reeling from years of inflation — should bolster revenue for OPEC+ members, who largely rely on petroleum sales to cover government spending. However, it may still not be enough: Riyadh requires prices close to $100 a barrel to finance an ambitious economic overhaul, according to the International Monetary Fund. To push crude higher the alliance may need to fully deliver its pledged reductions, but efforts to improve implementation have shown limited results. In June, Iraq reduced output by 30,000 barrels a day to 4.25 million a day. A pullback in exports brought the country closer to its designated ceiling, but Baghdad still remains about 250,000 barrels a day above that quota, even before the lack of extra “compensation cuts” are factored in. The nation has chafed for years against OPEC+ limits as it seeks to rebuild a war-shattered economy. Saudi Arabia’s production remained broadly steady at 8.99 million barrels a day, according to the survey. It reduced exports sharply, by 9 percent to 5.61 million a day, though shipments often fall at this time of year as the country burns more fuel at home for power generation and air conditioning. Last month, the OPEC+ coalition outlined plans to gradually reverse its supply restraints and begin to revive output from the fourth quarter. But when prices immediately slumped, ministers emphasized that the increases are provisional and could be postponed. The alliance is due to review its next move when major members hold an online monitoring meeting on Aug. 1. Bloomberg’s survey is based on ship-tracking data, information from officials and estimates from consultants, including FGE, Kpler Ltd. and Rapidan Energy Group.
Nigeria oil regulator approves Eni, Equinor divestment deals | S&P Global Commodity Insights --Nigeria's upstream regulator said it has approved long-awaited divestment deals by Eni and Equinor, allowing local players Oando and Chappal Energies, respectively, to acquire their oil-producing assets. Addressing an oil and gas conference in Abuja on July 3, Gbenga Komolafe, head of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, said the body has greenlit a deal between Nigerian Agip Oil Company – Italian major Eni's Nigerian subsidiary – and Oando, which is set to become one of Nigeria's largest oil producers through the deal. Komolafe added that Equinor's deal with Project Odinmim, Chappal's special-purpose vehicle for the transaction, has also been approved. "The [Eni] divestment has been concluded and the signing ceremony will come up any moment," said Komolafe. "The Equinor-Project Odinmim project divestment was also completed." Eni first announced the sale of its Nigerian unit to Oando in September 2023, but the deal stalled after state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company, which holds 60% equity in the blocks, floated the idea of exercising its right of first refusal on the licenses. Oando chief operating officer Alex Irune said the NUPRC approval was "a welcome development" and praised the recently enacted and "rigorous" Petroleum Industry Act. However, Irune added that of the company's four transactions, just two have so far been approved. "We have no choice after acquiring those oil and gas assets but to adopt integrated operations," said Irune, an advocate of greater cooperation between local Nigerian companies. Eni did not immediately respond to a request for comment
India’s crude oil imports from Russia at 12-month high in June - According to data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa, imports from Russia were up by almost 15 per cent month-on-month and 2 per cent on an annual basis. Data shows that both public and private sector refiners continued to import in record quantities from Russia. Public refiners such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) imported 1.10 mbpd crude oil, which is also a 12-month high. The cargoes last month were higher by 6 per cent M-o-M. However, imports were down by almost 11 per cent on an annual basis. During May-July 2023, public refiners imported more than 1.2 mbpd on a monthly basis from Russia. Private refiners Reliance Industries (RIL) and Rosneft-backed Nayara Energy imported a record 871,200 barrels per day (bpd) from Russia in June 2024. The cargoes were higher by 28 per cent M-o-M and 20 per cent Y-o-Y. Vortexa’s head of APAC analysis Serena Huang told businessline, “India’s imports of Russian crude at 1.97 mbpd in June 2024 is the highest since last July. China’s lower appetite of Russian crude has led to more barrels heading to India.” India’s crude imports have remained robust at 4.62 mbpd in June, Huang said. “We expect the country’s crude imports to remain robust, with downside risks from softer refining margins due to slowing global oil demand,” she added. While Indian refiners procured more barrels from Russia, cargoes from traditional suppliers in West Asia, such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia, declined. Crude oil imports from India’s second largest supplier, Iraq, fell by 20 per cent M-o-M and by 3.5 per cent Y-o-Y to roughly 754,000 bpd in June 2024. The decline was steeper in in-bound shipments from Saudi Arabia at 36 per cent M-o-M and 46 per cent Y-o-Y to around 387,000 bpd. Some trade sources said that the higher official selling price (OSP) of its flagship medium sour grade Arab Light in June could have been a reason for the lower cargoes. Crude oil shipments from the US continued to rise for the second consecutive month in June 2024. India imported roughly 331,000 bpd from the US last month, compared to around 224,000 bpd in May 2024 and 112,000 bpd in April. Trade sources said the imports were of light sweet grade due to weak market fundamentals amid refinery outages in Europe.
Russia's seaborne crude exports rise in June despite OPEC+ pledges | S&P Global Commodity Insights -- Russian seaborne crude exports rose 5% in June from a six-month low in May, according to tanker tracking data, despite pledges by Moscow to adhere more strictly to its OPEC+ output target from this month. At the same time, oil product exports fell 9% on the month despite Russian refineries damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes having largely been restored. Work affecting Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Kozmino on the Pacific coast cut shipments through Russia's two busiest oil terminals in the previous week, with no departures from either for four days during that period. But flows from both recovered fully in Crude shipments from Russian ports averaged 3.71 million b/d in June, up 188,000 b/d from 3.52 million b/d in May led by a rise in cargoes of Urals crude from its Baltic and Black Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Novorossiisk, according to S&P Global Commodities at Sea. Russia's June crude exports, which are above the average levels of 3.5 million b/d over the last year, come as Russian refiners repaired nearly all damaged capacity caused by Ukrainian drones since the start of the year. The rise in crude shipments also comes despite Moscow's pledges to OPEC+ to transition Russia's voluntary crude supply cut to a crude production cut during the third quarter. This includes May exports of 71,000 b/d below its May-June 2023 average, down from 121,000 b/d in April. The rise from May also came despite a brief slump in export shipments from Russia's two busiest oil terminals --Primorsk on the Baltic Sea and Kozmino on Russia's Pacific coast-- in the third week of June, the data shows. The biggest rise in crude exports during June headed to Russia's top oil buyer India, according to the data, with an additional 130,000 b/d of crude flowing to Indian ports during the month. Meanwhile, Russia's seaborne exports to China slipped by 130,000 b/d to a 10-month low of 980,000 b/d, according to the data, as Chinese refiners continued to undergo seasonal maintenance. On June 24, the EU added Russia's largest shipping company Sovcomflot, and 17 oil tankers to its latest sanctions against Moscow, mirroring a move by the US earlier this year to tighten curbs on one of the key transporters of Moscow's oil. According to Commodities at Sea, Sovcomflot-owned tankers transported 16% (112.8 million barrels) of Russian-origin crude bound for international markets since the start of the year. The 17 tankers shipped another 22.37 million barrels of Russian-origin crude and products since the start of the year.
Iran becomes 4th largest oil exporter in OPEC: report - Tehran Times --Iran has risen to become the fourth largest oil exporter within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to a surge in oil production and sales. Iran's oil and gas condensate exports have now reached their highest level since 2018, when the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and introduced tough economic sanctions against the country, targeting its oil sales in particular, according to a report by Vortexa, which provides data on the global energy sector. The report emphasized that Iran's oil and gas condensate exports now account for 9% of OPEC's total crude oil and gas condensate exports. Iran exported 1.56 million barrels of oil per day from January to May of this year, 250,000 bpd more than Kuwait and Nigeria. This has elevated Iran's ranking to the fourth spot among OPEC's largest crude oil exporters. Despite Western sanctions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil and gas exports to 1.7 million bpd in May, the highest level in the past five years. The report cited the rise in Chinese oil demand and the expansion of Iran's oil tanker fleet as the main factors contributing to the surge in Iran's oil exports. Ever since the late Iranian President Ebrahiam Raisi took power in August 2021, the country’s oil exports have been on an upward trajectory. The rise in Iran’s oil exports has taken place despite tough U.S. sanctions which aimed to choke off Iran’s oil industry as a main source of revenue for the Islamic Republic. Financial Times cited figures by data company Vortexa last month noting that Iran was exporting more oil than at any time for the past six years, giving its economy a $35bn-a-year boost. The report said that Tehran sold an average of 1.56mn barrels a day during the first three months of 2024, almost all of it to China and its highest level since the third quarter of 2018. “The Iranians have mastered the art of sanctions circumvention,” said Fernando Ferreira, head of a geopolitical risk service at the Rapidan Energy Group in the U.S. Iran’s oil minister Javad Oji said in March that oil exports had “generated more than $35bn” in the preceding year. On another occasion, he said that while Iran’s enemies wanted to stop its exports, “today, we can export oil anywhere we want, and with minimal discounts”.
Iran exporting crude oil to 17 countries: Oji - Tehran Times - Iran’s oil minister said that the country is currently exporting crude oil to 17 countries, including some in Europe. Iran will not face any problem in exporting oil no matter who comes to power in the US, Javad Oji stressed. Speaking at a ceremony on Tuesday, he stated that good investment has been made in the past three years in the oil industry. Iran produced 2.2 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) at the outset of the administration of the late President Ebrahim Raisi (August 2021) but the current oil production rat is about 3.570 million bpd, showing a considerable hike, Oji underlined. He went on to say that Iran’s oil exports rose from 182 million barrels in 2019 to 565 million barrels last year. In addition, the value of the export of oil and gas condensates and other oil and petrochemical products rose from $10.8 billion in 2019 to $36 billion last year, registering a 3.5fold growth, the oil minister added. Iran has risen to become the fourth largest oil exporter within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) due to a surge in oil production and sales. Iran's oil and gas condensate exports have now reached their highest level since 2018, when the United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and introduced tough economic sanctions against the country, targeting its oil sales in particular, according to a report by Vortexa, which provides data on the global energy sector. The report emphasized that Iran's oil and gas condensate exports now account for 9% of OPEC's total crude oil and gas condensate exports. Iran exported 1.56 million barrels of oil per day from January to May of this year, 250,000 bpd more than Kuwait and Nigeria. This has elevated Iran's ranking to the fourth spot among OPEC's largest crude oil exporters. Despite Western sanctions, Iran managed to increase its crude oil and gas exports to 1.7 million bpd in May, the highest level in the past five years. The report cited the rise in Chinese oil demand and the expansion of Iran's oil tanker fleet as the main factors contributing to the surge in Iran's oil exports.
Oil Moves Higher Ahead of Peak Driving, Hurricane Season - West Texas Intermediate futures closest to expiration on the New York Mercantile Exchange started the week up more than $1 per barrel (bbl) ahead of the July 4 weekend which traditionally marks peak seasonal fuel demand in the U.S. AAA expects a record number of travelers this Independence Day week, propelled by a 5% year-on-year increase in road travel. Demand woes are persisting, however, as recent manufacturing data disappointed once more.The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported commercial crude oil inventories expanding by 3.6 million bbls, and gasoline stocks adding some 2.7 million bbls in the last week of June. Weak manufacturing and freight activity have been denting fuel demand, with 1.5% less gasoline and 3.8% less distillate fuel oil supplied to domestic markets over the past four weeks compared to the same period last year. The Institute of Supply Management on Monday released their June U.S. manufacturing PMI, which at 48.5 slid even deeper into contraction.Manufacturing data out of China released over the weekend, meanwhile, was mixed. While the Caixin manufacturing PMI in June rose to 51.8, the highest in two years, official data indicated no change from May at 49.5. Aside from the brief respite in March and April, the state manufacturing PMI has been stuck below 50 since October. Chinese oil demand has largely trailed expectations so far this year, with official customs data recently showing a year-on-year drop in refining activity.Near 10:30 a.m. EDT, WTI futures for August delivery were trading near $81.85 bbl, up $0.31, and Brent for September delivery hovered around $85.33 bbl, up $0.33. RBOB for August delivery was up $0.0265 gal near $2.5280, and ULSD nearest delivery gained $0.0246 gal, trading near $2.5577.
The Oil Market on Monday Continued on its Upward Trend, Supported by Increasing Geopolitical Concerns - The oil market on Monday continued on its upward trend, supported by increasing geopolitical concerns. There are fears of conflict in southern Lebanon in light of a military build-up, the possibility of Iran entering directly into a conflict and Russia’s potential to provide support to partners in the region amid a stagnation of negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. The market traded mostly sideways in overnight trading and looked ready to post an inside trading day. However, it breached its previous high of $82.72 by mid-day and rallied a high of $83.52 ahead of the close. The August WTI contract ended the session up $1.84 at $83.38 and the September Brent contract settled up $86.60 at $1.60. The August WTI contract later posted a new high of $83.64 in the post settlement period. The product markets ended the session sharply higher, with the heating oil market settling up 8.16 cents at $2.6147 and the RB market settling up 7.68 cents at $2.5783. The Department of Energy said the U.S. added 2.4 million barrels of sour crude to the SPR over the four week period that ended on Friday, bringing the stockpile to 372.6 million barrels. The SPR now holds 228.8 million barrels of sour crude and 143.8 million barrels of sweet crude.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 92,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 5th, increasing available refining capacity by 84,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 256,000 bpd in the week ending July 12th.According to vessel-tracking data, about 20 ships loaded crude oil on Canada’s West Coast in the first full month of operation on the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline. The 20 vessels loaded were less than the 22 ships that Trans Mountain had initially expected to load for the month. Total crude exports from Vancouver were around 350,000 bpd with the last two vessels for June-loading at the Westridge Marine terminal. The vessels, partially loaded Aframaxes able to carry about 550,000 barrels each, mostly sailed to the U.S. West Coast and Asia. According to data providers LSEG, Kpler and Vortexa, some cargoes were loaded onto larger ships for delivery to India and China. The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline is running around 80% full with some spot capacity used. Trans Mountain forecasts 96% utilization from next year. It has capacity to load 34 Aframax ships a month.Colonial Pipeline Co announced a freeze notice for Cycle 38 on Line 2, its main distillate line from Houston, Texas to Greensboro North Carolina. The allocation is for the pipeline segment north of Collins, Mississippi. Colonial Pipeline is also allocating space for Cycle 39 shipments on Line 2, its main distillate line.U.S. manufacturing fell for a third consecutive month in June and a measure of prices paid by factories for inputs fell to a six-month low amid weak demand for goods. The Institute for Supply Management said that its manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June from 48.7 in May.S&P Global reported that its manufacturing PMI for the U.S. stood at 51.6 in June compared with a flash reading of 51.7.
Oil prices up 2% to two-month high on summer demand hopes, supply worries (Reuters) - Oil prices gained about 2% to a two-month high on Monday on hopes of rising demand during the Northern Hemisphere's summer driving season and worries that conflict in the Middle East could spread and reduce global oil supplies. Brent futures rose $1.60, or 1.9%, to settle at $86.60 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.84, or 2.3%, to settle at $83.38. That was the highest close for Brent since April 30 for a third day in a row and the highest for WTI since April 26. "The (energy) complex is beginning this new week in strong fashion as it continues to acquire support from ... increasing geopolitical risk premium related to Israel-Hezbollah tensions (and) bullish demand expectations for this month with some increased hurricane premium," Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have been trading fire since the start of the Gaza war, and concern is rising that an all-out war could break out between the two sides. "Hezbollah and Israel seem to be drifting closer and closer to a full scale war that runs the risk of drawing in OPEC member Iran and its Shiite allies in Iraq, Yemen and Syria," OPEC is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which along with its allies, a group known as OPEC+, has already extended most of its oil output cuts into 2025. Those output cuts have led analysts to forecast supply deficits in the third quarter as transportation and demand for air-conditioning during the summer eat into fuel stockpiles. Rising demand for fuel helped lift prices for U.S. oil products by around 3% on Monday with diesel futures closing at their highest in 10 weeks and gasoline futures closing at their highest in eight weeks. In the Caribbean Sea, Hurricane Beryl, an extremely dangerous major hurricane, was expected to pass Jamaica on Wednesday and slam into the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico on Friday before weakening into a tropical storm and entering the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico, where Mexico produces much of its oil on Saturday.
An Expected Rise in Demand as the Summer Travel Season Increases with the Independence Day Holiday This Week - On Tuesday, the oil market ended the session lower after the market extended its previous gains to two-month highs early in the session. The market was well supported by an expected rise in demand as the summer travel season increases with the Independence Day holiday this week. The American Automobile Association forecast travel during the holiday period will increase 5.2% on the year, with car travel up 4.8% on the year. Also, while Hurricane Beryl, which strengthened into a category 5 storm on Monday is not expected to affect operations in the Gulf of Mexico immediately, the market was closely watching the forecasts. The market continued to extend its recent gains and posted a high of $84.38 by mid-morning. However, it erased its sharp gains and sold off to a low of $82.72 on profit-taking as fears of supply disruptions caused by Hurricane Beryl dissipated. The August WTI contract settled down 57 cents at $82.81 and the September Brent contract settled down 36 cents at $86.24. The product market settled in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.5 cents at $2.6297 and the RB market settling down 49 points at $2.5734. The U.S. Department of Energy said it has completed awarding contracts for the sale of 1 million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve to lower prices ahead of the Fourth of July holiday. The Energy Department said the barrels were sold at an average price of $2.34/gallon to five companies, with BP buying 500,000 barrels, Vitol buying 200,000 barrels and Freeport Commodities, Irving Oil and George E. Warren purchasing about 100,000 barrels each. Iran’s Oil Minister, Javad Owji, said Iran is selling crude oil to 17 countries, including some countries in Europe, indicating some countries may not be honoring U.S. sanctions. He said he could not provide additional detail regarding the amounts sold or the identity of buyers due to the sensitivity of the subject. On Monday night, Hurricane Beryl strengthened into a “potentially catastrophic” category 5 storm as it moved across the eastern Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Beryl, packing winds of up to 155 mph, was about 485 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. The storm struck the Caribbean region earlier in the day as the earliest Category 4 storm on record. Meanwhile, a private weather forecaster said the environmental conditions will gradually become less favorable for Beryl to maintain its extremely powerful hurricane status by late Tuesday. The forecaster said it is likely that Beryl will begin weakening and this weakening will continue when the eye of the hurricane passes just south of Jamaica on Wednesday night. The hurricane will still be close enough to produce hurricane conditions across Jamaica during Wednesday. Beyond this, there continues to be quite a bit of uncertainty as to how much Beryl will have weakened by the time it reaches the southern Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday night and model consensus seems to suggest that Beryl may be a tropical storm when it comes ashore on the eastern Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for major strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico. However, a tropical storm impact somewhere between Tampico, Mexico and Corpus Christi, Texas is a possibility around Sunday or Monday.
U.S. crude oil pulls back as traders monitor war, hurricane risks - U.S. crude oil pulled back from a two-month high Tuesday, as traders assessed the risk of war between Israel and Hezbollah, while monitoring the potential threat of Hurricane Beryl to Gulf Coast refineries.Oil has rallied in recent days with gasoline prices have hit an average of $3.50 per gallon ahead of the Fourth of July holiday, according to the motorist association AAA. Prices at the pump are about 3 cents higher than last week but still lower than last month.West Texas Intermediate crude hit a high of $84.38 earlier in the session, the highest level since April 26, but ultimately closed lower at $82.81 per barrel. Brent rose to $87.46 earlier in the session, the highest level since April 30, before also settling lower. Here are Tuesday's closing energy prices:
- West Texas Intermediate August contract: $82.81 per barrel, down 57 cents, or 0.68%. Year to date, U.S. crude oil has gained 15.6%.
- Brent September contract: $86.24 per barrel, down 36 cents, or 0.42%. Year to date, the global benchmark is ahead by 12%.
- RBOB Gasoline August contract: $2.57 per gallon, down 0.19%. Year to date, gasoline has advanced 22.4%.
- Natural Gas August contract: $2.43 per thousand cubic feet, down 1.74%. Year to date, gas is down about 3%.
Rising gasoline prices will likely continue into Fourth of July and could hit $3.69 per gallon in the coming weeks if the oil rally continues, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, wrote on social media Tuesday. "I expect the national retail price of gasoline to increase 5 to 10 cents per gallon over the next 7 days," Andy Lipow said in a note Tuesday. Oil prices gained 6% last month after sagging in May as geopolitical risk entered the market again. Eighteen Israeli soldiers were injured Sunday in a drone attack launched by the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah, according to the Israel Defense Forces. Israel and Hezbollah have exchanged fire across the Lebanon border for months, but tensions have escalated in recent weeks as the two sides have threatened war. An Israeli invasion of Lebanon to push back Hezbollah could lead to a confrontation with OPEC-member Iran, analysts have warned. Traders also worry that an early and active hurricane season could disrupt refineries and oil production along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hurricane Beryl has strengthened into a Category 5storm after making landfall on Grenada's Carriacou Island. "While Hurricane Beryl is currently not a direct threat to USA crude oil production or refineries on the Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center is now showing a northerly turn on Sunday that could impact refineries in Corpus Christi," There are five refineries in the Corpus Christi area with 942,000 barrels per day of capacity, which is 4.8% of total U.S. refining capacity. With Gulf refiners operating at 90% to 95% to capacity, there is no slack in the system to make up for lost production if a significant number of refineries are shut down."Supply shortfalls are partially solved by drawing down inventories in the distribution system," he said. "That results in depleting terminals of gasoline and ultimately the consumer sees the dreaded 'out of gas' signs at the pump."
WTI Spikes After Biggest Crude Draw In A Year | ZeroHedge Oil prices briefly spiked after last night's API-reported big crude draw, but that reverted back lower fast. Overnight has seen a small roller-coaster with prices slipping during the US session and then a series of bad news data point in the US sparking a 'good news for Fed cuts' response in oil prices, holding just above green on the day. The question is - was API's data fluke... API
- Crude -9.16mm - biggest draw since mid-Jan 2024
- Cushing +404k
- Gasoline +2.47mm
- Distillates -740k
DOE
- Crude -12.16mm - biggest draw since Jul 2023
- Cushing +345k
- Gasoline -2.21mm
- Distillates -1.54mm
Nope. The official data confirms the huge crude draw last week (which we suspect was pre-emptive draws ahead of 'Beryl'. Graphics Source: Bloomberg Adjusted for the 398k barrel addition to SPR, the 11.579mm barrtel draw was the largest since the last week of July last year... Oil prices spiked on the big crude draw...
Oil prices rise on deep weekly draw in US crude inventories (Reuters) - Oil prices gained about 1% on Wednesday after a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude stocks, but gains were capped by concerns about rising global inventories in thin trading ahead of the U.S. Independence Day holiday.Brent crude futures rose $1.10, or 1.3%, to settle at $87.34 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.07, or 1.3%, to $83.88. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 12.2 million draw in the country's crude oil barrels in storage last week, which was larger than analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 680,000-barrel draw."Strong exports, a slight drop in imports, and a rebound in refinery runs colluded to draw crude inventories by a whopping 12 million barrels," said Kpler oil analyst Matt Smith.But the market's reaction was muted partly due to lower trading volumes ahead of Independence Day, analysts noted.Potential supply disruptions to Hurricane Beryl have also kept prices elevated, although concerns eased after the U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm was expected to weaken by the time it entered the Gulf of Mexico this week. The rain and wind impacts could still disrupt Mexico's offshore oil production as well as its export infrastructure and tighten supply, said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Mexico is a major crude oil exporter.OPEC output rose for a second consecutive month in June, a Reuters survey found on Tuesday, which weighed on oil prices. Higher supply from Nigeria and Iran offset the impact of voluntary supply cuts by other members and the wider OPEC+ alliance."OPEC+ was reported to have increased production in June despite pledges to keep quotas in check through the third quarter, and lingering concerns over a tepid recovery in China sent a bearish signal," .Also dampening prices were surveys that showed that China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months and confidence hit a four-year low in June. Overall business growth across the euro zone also slowed sharply last month. China is the largest importer of crude barrels, and a slowdown in the country's economic activity can damage oil demand.
The Market Weighed Larger Than Expected Draws in Oil Stocks Against Bearish Economic Data from the U.S., the Euro Zone, and China - The oil market ended the session higher on Wednesday as the market weighed larger than expected draws in oil stocks against bearish economic data from the U.S., the euro zone and China. The crude market traded sideways in overnight trading despite the larger than expected draw in crude stocks of over 9 million barrels in the week ending June 28th reported by the API. The market’s gains were limited by economic headwinds from China, which reported that its services activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months and confidence fell a four-year low in June, while overall business growth across the euro zone also slowed sharply in June. The market later posted a trading range from $83.53 to $82.46 following the release of the EIA report. The market was initially well supported by the EIA report, which showed larger than expected draws across the board, with a draw in crude stocks of over 12 million barrels on the week. However, the market quickly erased its gains and sold off to its low as the market reassessed some bearish U.S. economic data, with U.S. factory orders unexpectedly falling in May and a measure of U.S. services sector activity falling to a four year low in June. The crude market later settled in a sideways trading range before some late buying ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Thursday pushed the market to a high of $83.93 ahead of the close. The August WTI contract settled up $1.07 at $83.88 and the September Brent contract settled up $1.10 at $87.34. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 46 points at $2.6343 and the RB market settling up 2.79 cents at $2.6013. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 117,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending July 5th, increasing available refining capacity by 59,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 261,000 bpd in the week ending July 12th.Colonial Pipeline Co is allocating space for Cycle 40 shipments on Line 1, its main gasoline line from Houston, Texas to Greensboro, North Carolina. The current allocation is for the pipeline segment north of Collins, Mississippi.The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil stocks fell by about 12.2 million barrels in the week ending July 28th, the largest weekly withdrawal since July 2023. Total U.S. commercial crude inventories, which exclude the SPR, were at 448.5 million barrels by the end of last week, the lowest level since March.Citi Research said its three month price target for Brent remains at $82/barrel and its 6-12 month target remains at $72/barrel. It stated that geopolitical risks do not necessarily translate into oil supply disruptions.Shell Plc started evacuating non-essential personnel from at its Perdido and Whale oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico due to Hurricane Beryl. It shut down drilling operations ahead of the approaching storm.
Oil settles 1% lower as Mideast ceasefire talks ease supply disruption concerns – CNA -- Oil prices settled lower on Friday as the rising possibility of a ceasefire deal in Gaza outweighed strong summer fuel demand and potential supply disruptions from Gulf of Mexico hurricanes.Brent crude futures settled down 89 cents, or 1.02 per cent lower, to $86.54 a barrel, after reaching their highest since April earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $83.16 a barrel, down 72 cents, or 0.9 per cent.For the week, Brent rose 0.4 per cent, while WTI futures posted a 2.1 per cent rise.The head of Israel's Mossad has returned from Doha after an initial meeting with mediators trying to reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, and negotiations will resume next week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said on Friday.Netanyahu's office said in a statement that gaps remain between the sides.“Obviously a breakthrough there would help calm the waters”, said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. An easing of the Middle Eastern conflict reduces the risk premium of barrels out of the region and weighs on oil prices.WTI did not settle on Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday, giving way to thin trading, but prices have risen this week on strong summer oil demand expectations in the U.S."The last couple of days represent the peak of the drive season, in terms of demand and prices continue to creep higher. This is coming from stronger consumer demand and the effects of Hurricane Beryl," Tim Snyder, economist at Matador economics said in a note on Friday.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), on Wednesday, reported a much larger-than-expected 12.2 million barrel inventories draw last week, compared with analyst expectations for a draw of 700,000 barrels.On the supply side, Hurricane Beryl, a Category 2 storm, made landfall in Mexico, after killing least 11 people in the Caribbean, tearing through buildings and power lines across several Caribbean islands.Mexico's major oil platforms are not expected to be affected by the storm, but oil projects in U.S. waters to the north may be disrupted if the hurricane continues on its expected path.The possibility that U.S. interest rate cuts are approaching, meanwhile, raised expectations for an increase in oil demand.U.S. job growth slowed marginally in June, but a rise in the unemployment rate to more than a 2-1/2 year high of 4.1 per cent and moderation in wage gains pointed to an easing of labor market conditions, and could put a rate cut at the July meeting in their sights."This morning’s employment data shows that there are some cracks in the labor market, that could spur on a rate cut even this month”, said Kilduff at Again Capital.Lower interest rates can boost economic activity and increase crude oil demand.
Oil Posts Fourth Straight Weekly Gain - Oil posted its fourth straight weekly advance, with declining US stockpiles and Hurricane Beryl extending crude’s early-summer rally. West Texas Intermediate fell to settle near $83 a barrel on Friday, but still cemented a 2% weekly advance. The American benchmark hasn’t risen for four consecutive weeks since August 2023. Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to regain hurricane status and hit northern Mexico or southern Texas early Monday, potentially threatening some oil output. The storm also has traders weighing the risk of a “supercharged” hurricane season as its the earliest ever Category 5 to hit the Atlantic. Adding to the bullishness, a report Wednesday showed the biggest drop in US stockpiles in almost a year, signaling tightening supplies. Gasoline consumption on a four-week basis rose for the first time in a year, according to the Energy Information Administration. “Investors will want to keep an eye on inventories data to see whether the most recent drop was just an anomaly or whether more oil will be drawn from inventories,” said Fawad Razaqzada of City Index and Forex.com in a note Friday. “If we see more drawdowns, then this should further support the oil-price recovery.” Still, WTI is seeing resistance at $84 a barrel, Razaqzada added. Crude may break out of the range if the market gains confidence in stronger demand and tighter supply in the coming months, he said. Crude has climbed almost 14% since early June, partly due to a positive outlook for demand over the Northern Hemisphere summer, with bullish, backwardated timespreads indicating healthy near-term consumption. Hedge funds affirmed the bullish outlook, staking out the biggest net long position on Brent crude in seven weeks, according to Intercontinental Exchange data. The recent rally has been aided by positive sentiment across markets, and a stepdown in US hiring and wage growth last month is bolstering expectations of interest rate cuts. But some traders are weighing whether the economic slowdown will hurt US consumers and trim oil demand. Softer demand in Asia has tempered some of the recent optimism and led Saudi Aramco to slash prices of its crude to the region for a second month. Saudi Arabian seaborne oil flows dropped in June. Geopolitical risks also are showing signs of ebbing, with Israel in peace talks with Hamas. WTI for August delivery dipped 0.9% to settle at $83.16 a barrel in New York. Brent for September settlement slipped 1% to $86.54 a barrel.
June Saw the Most Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping of the Year - There were more Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping in June than any other month of this year, Middle East Eye reported Wednesday, citing data from the UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO).According to the UKMTO, there were 16 confirmed Houthi attacks on shipping in June. Only December of 2023 saw more attacks since the campaign started in response to Israel’s onslaught in Gaza.The numbers demonstrate that the bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen that was launched by the US and the UK has done nothing to deter the Houthis, who are officially known as Ansar Allah.The US military continues to intercept Houthi missiles and drones over the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and launch strikes in Yemen, which has cost the US over $1 billion. According to the commander of the US Navy destroyer USS Carney, which recently returned home from a Red Sea deployment, the campaign has been the largest US naval battle since World War II.The Houthis have been clear the only way they’ll stop their attacks on Israel-linked and other commercial shipping is if there’s a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli siege. Tim Lenderking, the US’s envoy to Yemen, has acknowledged the Houthis would likely be true to their word, but the US continues to support Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza instead of pushing for a unilateral ceasefire.It was clear from the start that a new bombing campaign against the Houthis would only escalate the situation. The US backed a brutal Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis from 2015-2022 that involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became more of a capable fighting force during that time.The war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are now blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.
Houthi Attacks On Ships Soar Most This Year In June As Critical Maritime Chokepoint Ablaze In Conflict - About eight months after the Houthi rebels began seriously disrupting maritime traffic in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, June recorded the highest number of missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels this year and the second-largest since December. As instability in the Middle East intensifies, Houthi rebels have sunk one commercial vessel in recent weeks and haveintroduced kamikaze drone boats to their arsenal. Despite efforts of the US, British, and European navies sailing in the critical maritime chokepoint, attempting to ensure freedom of navigation, the Houthis managed to conduct 16 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels in June, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from naval forces operating in the Middle East.The surge in attacks is alarming, considering President Biden's Operation Prosperity Guardian, launched at the start of this year to ensure freedom of navigation, has been without success in neutralizing threats and restoring security for commercial shipping. Instead, the consequence of failure has been emerging supply chain snarls and supply shocks, resulting in soaring containerized shipping rates. "The Houthis have proven to be quite the formidable force. This is a nonstate actor that fields a larger arsenal and is really able to give a headache to the Western coalition," said Sebastian Bruns, a naval expert at the Center for Maritime Strategy and Security and the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University in Germany, who was quoted by Foreign Policy. Bruns said, "This is as high-end as it gets for now, and when navies are having a problem with sustainment at this evel, it is really worrisome." So, eight months on, the disruption to the critical shipping lane is getting a lot worse as rebels have expanded their use of uncrewed service vessels to attack commercial vessels. These are much harder to track than anti-ship missiles.
Iran Warns Israel of 'Obliterating War' If It Launches Full-Scale Attack on Lebanon - Iran’s mission to the UN has warned Israel that a full-scale attack on Lebanon would result in an “obliterating war” that could involve all of Iran’s allies in the region.The mission wrote on X that it believes Israel’s recent threats against Lebanon could be “psychological warfare” and “propaganda” but said that if Israel does “embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue.”The mission added, “All options, including the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table.”It’s unclear if Iran would directly intervene if Israel invades southern Lebanon, but it’s likely that Shia militias allied with Iran and Hezbollah would get involved. A full-scale war in Lebanon could also involve the US, as the White House reportedly conveyed to Lebanon that it would support Israel against Hezbollah.The US claims it is working to ease tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border, but it continues to provide military aid to Israel despite continued escalations and threats. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant recentlythreatened that Israel could bomb Lebanon “back to the stone age.”Amos Hochstein, an advisor to President Biden who has been serving as an envoy to discuss Israel-Lebanon tensions, warned Beirut that the US cannot hold Israel back from launching a full-scale war. Israeli media has reported that the Israeli military is not expected to be able to handle opening a second front in Lebanon due to losses it has taken in Gaza, signaling Israel might look for the US to bail it out if it invades.
US Official Says There Are No Plans To Withdraw from Syria - A State Department official has told Rudaw that the US has no plans to withdraw its troops from Syria.The US has about 900 troops in eastern Syria and backs the Kurdish-led SDF, allowing Washington to control and occupy about one-third of the country’s territory.The US claims the occupation is about fighting ISIS remnants, but the continued US presence is more about keeping Damascus and its ally Iran out of the area and controlling oil resources. The occupation is also part of the economic campaign against government-controlled Syria, which includes crippling sanctions that are specifically designed to prevent the country’s reconstruction.Ethan A. Goldrich, assistant deputy secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, said the US wouldn’t leave Syria until its “mission” was completed, referring to the anti-ISIS operations.“We are not planning to withdraw from Syria. We are planning to continue and complete our mission to prevent a resurgence of ISIS and to counter ISIS and to work with our partners,” Goldrich told Rudaw on Wednesday.Goldrich also said the US occupation was about “holding the regime accountable,” referring to the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He also reiterated US opposition to regional countries normalizing with Damascus, as Arab nations have accepted that Assad isn’t going anywhere and are re-establishing relations with the Syrian leader.
Israeli Minister Retweets Post Calling for Occupation of Egypt's Sinai Peninsula - Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu retweeted a post on X promoting a t-shirt that calls for the Israeli “conquest” of Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, which Israel occupied from 1967-1982, The Times of Israel reported on Wednesday.The t-shirt shows a picture of what is supposed to be a map of Israel that covers Sinai, the West Bank, and Gaza, with a logo that says “Occupation Now.” The post links to a website that sells other merchandise that also promotes the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon and Jordan.“The occupation begins with an idea,” the website reads in Hebrew, according to Google Translate. “Wear a shirt, drink a cup of coffee, and participate in the occupation of the land.”
Israeli Generals Want Truce in Gaza, Putting Them at Odds With Netanyahu - - Israel’s top generals want a ceasefire in Gaza even if it keeps Hamas in power, putting them at odds with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, The New York Times reported on Wednesday.The report, which cited current and former security officials, said one reason Israel’s top brass favored a pause in Gaza was so that the Israeli military could recuperate to prepare for a full-blown war against Hezbollah in LebanonThey also believe a ceasefire in Gaza could reduce tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border and make it easier to reach a deal with Lebanon, although Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has previously said a pause in Gaza would be an escalation in Lebanon. The Israeli military also believes a deal with Hamas is the best way to safely free the remaining Israeli hostages in Gaza. “The military is in full support of a hostage deal and a ceasefire,” former Israeli National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata told the Times.Responding to the report, Netanyahu vowed military operations in Gaza would continue until Hamas was eliminated, a goal the Israeli military has publicly said is not possible.“I do not know who these anonymous sources are, but I am here to make it unequivocally clear: This will not happen,” Netanyahu said. “The war will end once Israel achieves all of its objectives, including the destruction of Hamas and the release of all of our hostages.”Four senior Israeli officials who spoke with the Times agreed that a hostage deal that keeps Hamas in power for now is the least worst option for Israel at the moment. Hulata also made clear that the Israeli military’s thinking is for a temporary ceasefire, not the permanent truce that Hamas has been seeking.“They believe that they can always go back and engage Hamas militarily in the future,” Hulata said.Axios previously reported that Israeli officials thought the ceasefire deal unveiled by President Biden back in May was vague enough that Israel and Hamas could enter a temporary ceasefire and conduct a prisoner swap without Israel actually committing to a permanent truce. But Netanyahu repeatedly rejected the idea of a permanent ceasefire, leading Hamas to ask for stronger guarantees and sabotaging the chances of an agreement.
Israel releases 55 Palestinian prisoners, including al-Shifa Hospital director -Israel released 55 Palestinian prisoners Monday, including the director of Gaza’s al-Shifa Hospital who alleged that he was abused during his eight-month detention.Mohammed Abu Salmiya, who was detained by Israeli forces while escorting patients with the backing of the United Nations from the hospital during Israel’s initial raid of al-Shifa in November, said he was held without ever being charged and that prisoners were only given one loaf of bread a day. Salmiya also said he and other prisoners faced “severe” and daily torture by Israeli medical staff.“Many detainees are still left behind in very poor health and psychological conditions,” he said in a press conference, according to Turkish state-run media outlet Anadolu Agency.Hamas used the claims of abuse to call for accountability against Israeli leaders for crimes of torture against the Palestinians, according to a statement shared by the militant group’s media channels. Israel raided al-Shifa in Gaza City in November after accusing Palestinian militant group Hamas of using the hospital as a military base.Israel was largely criticized for the operation that endangered patients but continued to argue the hospital was used by Hamas. It released videos that showed stashed weapons at the hospital and nearby tunnel systems, but the evidence did not fully support claims it had been used as a military base.Israeli forces returned to al-Shifa in March to take out more Hamas fighters, part of an effort to return to previously cleared areas after what Israel claims is returning insurgent activity. The prisoners were released Monday to make room because the jails are reportedly full, according to Israeli media reports on a statement from Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security service.
Israel Orders New Khan Younis Evacuation, Signaling It Will Re-Invade - Israeli forces withdrew from Khan Younis in April and left the city in complete ruins. Municipal officials estimated the Israeli assault destroyed more than 80% of the buildings in Khan Younis and left the rest mostly uninhabitable.Israel said it destroyed Hamas’ battalions’ military in the city and claimed victory, but another planned invasion signals the Palestinian group could be re-establishing itself, as it has in other parts of Gaza decimated by the Israeli military.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists his goal is still to eliminate Hamas in Gaza even as his own military has said the goal is impossible. “This business of destroying Hamas, making Hamas disappear – it’s simply throwing sand in the eyes of the public,” Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said last month.“Hamas is an idea, Hamas is a party. It’s rooted in the hearts of the people – whoever thinks we can eliminate Hamas is wrong,” Hagari added.On Sunday, Netanyahu again vowed to continue his genocidal war until Hamas is “eliminated” and rejected the idea of a permanent ceasefire.
Family That Evacuated Khan Younis Slaughtered by Israeli Strike in So-Called 'Safe Zone' - Nine members of the same family who evacuated Khan Younis were killed by an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday in an area of the central Gaza city of Deir al-Balah that Israel declared a so-called “safe zone,” The Associated Presshas reported.Around a dozen members of the Hamdan family fled Khan Younis after Israel gave an evacuation order for the eastern portion of the city, which the UN said will impact about 250,000 Palestinians. The Hamdans found refuge with extended relatives in Deir al-Balah, only for most of them to be slaughtered.According to AP, a total of 12 people were killed in the Israeli strike on the “safe zone,” including five children and three women. Israel has repeatedly bombed areas it declared safe in Gaza, including the al-Mawasi camp on the coast, which is where the Israeli military said Palestinians evacuating Khan Younis should go.After Israel ordered the evacuation of Khan Younis, it launched airstrikes on the city that killed at least nine people, including three children and two women. The strikes were launched near the European Hospital, which is also in the area Israel said should be evacuated. Patients and workers fled from the European Hospital, the largest operating medical facility in Gaza, after the Israeli evacuation order. “Some of the patients were dragged in hospital beds toward Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis by their families. Some of them were transported in ambulances and some of them went on foot,” Saleh al-Hams, who heads the hospital’s nursing department, told The Washington Post.
UN Says Israel Evacuation Order 'Wiped Out' Bid to Improve Gaza Aid (Reuters) - An Israeli military evacuation order covering a third of the Gaza Strip has "wiped out" the United Nations' attempts to improve humanitarian aid deliveries via the Kerem Shalom crossing, a senior U.N. aid official said on Wednesday. Israel has been critical of U.N.-led aid operations in the enclave of 2.3 million people, where the U.N. says distribution is not only hampered by the nearly nine-month long war between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas, but also lawlessness.Israel's military announced this month a daily daytime pause in attacks to facilitate the collection of aid from Kerem Shalom, but the U.N. has said the lawlessness means it is still too dangerous and it is Israel's responsibility to restore public order and safety in Gaza.Andrea De Domenico, head of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, said that in the past few weeks there had been a lot of discussions with Israel on how to improve the situation."We have been engineering a lot of solutions and trying and testing, improving and failing - at times - and now with this evacuation order all this has been, again, wiped out," he told reporters on Wednesday.De Domenico said alternative plans were now blocked by the evacuation order, but he hoped a protection agreement could be reached with the Israeli military for some areas.The United Nations has also long appealed for more effective coordination with the Israeli military for aid operations and approval for the U.N. and humanitarians to use essential security and communications equipment."Would it be Starlink? Would it be another technology? I don't really care as long as we have what we need to communicate safely with our teams for safety and for operations," said De Domenico, referring to a the SpaceX satellite internet service.
"Gaza Is Complicated!" No It Isn't. Grow Up. Caitlin Johnstone - It’s false to say that conflicts in the middle east are hard to understand. They’re not. What can be hard is opening your mind to the possibility that everything you’ve been told about the world is a lie, and that everyone you know and respect has been brainwashed by propaganda. Once you’ve done that, understanding conflicts in the middle east becomes easy — because the entire framework we’re indoctrinated with for understanding them is a lie.So much abusive bullshit hides behind the false modesty of “This issue is too complicated for me to understand.” You see it with Gaza, where westerners act like an empire-backed military force dropping bombs on a giant concentration camp and systematically using rape as a weapon of torture and deliberately starving civilians is just way too compwicated for a dumb widdle baby wike me, goo goo ga ga. People act like they’re being humble about their own intellect and understanding, but really they’re just lying and psychologically compartmentalizing away from self-evident reality. It’s not humility, it’s just another kind of dishonesty.You see this fraudulent act all the time with the average westerner’s general incuriosity about the behavior of their government and its allies throughout the world. “Oh I’m too dumb to know anything about foreign policy, I leave that to the experts.” No actually you’re just compartmentalizing away from the cognitive dissonance that would otherwise lead to the destruction of your mainstream worldview once you really looked at the publicly available information about what your government and its allies are doing to people in other countries..There absolutely is a benefit to having real humility about the limits of your own understanding, and to knowing that from a certain point of view everything about this strange reality we were birthed into is mysterious and ungraspable. But if you use this fact to hide from your own responsibility toward understanding your world, your society and your interpersonal relationships, it’s just cowardice and dishonesty. If you use this truth to hide from reality, it becomes a lie.If you accept that we all have a responsibility to act in an ethical way, then you must also accept that we have a responsibility to form a mature understanding of our world and our surroundings, because all of our actions necessarily flow from our understanding. This won’t always be convenient or comfortable, just conducting one’s behavior in an ethical way isn’t always convenient or comfortable, but that’s what being a responsible adult is. You can’t discern responsible action without having a responsible relationship with your understanding of the world.Gaza isn’t complicated. Those who says it is are just running from their own intellectual adulthood. Stop shirking your responsibility, learn the facts, take a stand, and grow up.
Israel Says It Will Send Delegation for Renewed Hostage Deal Negotiations - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Biden on Thursday that he agreed to send a delegation for renewed indirect hostage deal negotiations with Hamas.The conversation came a day after Hamas said it gave new “ideas” to Qatari mediators that US and Israeli officials described in comments to the media as a “breakthrough.” But there are signs that Netanyahu and members of his coalition government are working to sabotage the chances of an agreement.In his conversation with President Biden, Netanyahu also reiterated his position that the genocidal war in Gaza won’t end until all of Israel’s objectives are completed, which includes the eradication of Hamas, a goal the Israeli military has said is not possible. Hamas has been adamant that any hostage deal must include a permanent ceasefire.The Times of Israel reported that in a meeting with his negotiators before deciding to send a delegation, Netanyahu “stressed again that the war will end only after achieving all of its goals, and not one moment earlier.”Yedioth Ahronoth reported that Netanyahu was teaming up with some extremist elements of his government to sabotage a ceasefire. The report said that the prime minister’s office planted a story in the media claiming to be a security source that said Hamas’s response offered nothing new.Israeli security and intelligence officials were angered by the fake story, and according to Haaretz, genuine Israeli security sources said Hamas’s proposal gave Israel “something to work with.”Israel’s top brass appears ready for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza since the military has been struggling against Hamas. The Palestinian group has been able to re-establish itself in areas that have been decimated by the Israeli military. One reason they want a ceasefire in Gaza is to prepare for a potential full-blown war in Lebanon.But extremist ministers, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have been opposed to any deal with Hamas and have the power to dissolve the coalition government, giving them significant sway with Netanyahu.
NATO Members Agree To Give Ukraine $43 Billion in Military Aid for 2025 - NATO allies have agreed to pledge $43 billion in military aid for Ukraine, which will be provided next year, Reuters reported on Wednesday.NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg was looking for the alliance to make a multi-year commitment to ensure long-term support for the proxy war, but the allies did not agree. Instead, they will re-evaluate military aid for Ukraine each year.The agreement says that NATO allies will “aim to meet this pledge through proportionate contributions.” If the $43 billion is funded based on how much each member contributes to NATO, most of the burden would be on the US since it pays for about two-thirds of the alliance’s budget.The $43 billion is part of a slew of measures NATO will announce at its summit next week in Washington. NATO is also expected to station a civilian official in Kyiv and establish a new command in Germany that will oversee military aid and training for Ukraine, taking over duties currently overseen by the US.While planning to provide tens of billions in new military aid, NATO will also tell Ukraine that it’s too corrupt to join the alliance. The Telegraphreported this week that the alliance will release a communique calling on Ukraine to take more anti-corruption steps before talks on its NATO membership could progress.President Biden has frequently cited Ukraine’s corruption as a reason why the country couldn’t join NATO. But that hasn’t stopped him from providing over $100 billion in aid to Ukraine, which includes tens of billions in the form of direct budgetary aid that funds the government.
Hungary's Orban Visits Ukraine, Suggests Zelensky Consider a Ceasefire - Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made his first wartime visit to Ukraine on Tuesday and suggested to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he agree to a ceasefire with Russia.Zelensky’s so-called “peace formula,” which he has been pushing as a way to end the war, requires a full Russian withdrawal from Ukraine before negotiations can even happen, a non-starter for talks with Moscow. Orban said he told Zelensky that he should consider agreeing to a ceasefire first.“I asked the president to think about whether we could reverse the order, and speed up peace talks, with making a ceasefire first,” Orban said at a joint press conference with the Ukrainian leader. “A ceasefire connected to a deadline would give a chance to speed up peace talks. I explored this possibility with the president and I am grateful for his honest answers and negotiation.”Ihor Zhovkva, the deputy head of Ukraine’s presidential official, later said that Zelensky dismissed Orban’s proposal. “The President of Ukraine listened to him, but in response, he stated Ukraine’s position – clear, understandable, and well-known,” Zhovkva said, according to The Kyiv Independent.While Hungary is a NATO member, Orban has been one of the most prominent European critics of the proxy war in Ukraine. He has repeatedly delayed EU aid packages to Ukraine and softened some sanctions on Russia. Orban also does not allow his country’s territory to be used to transfer weapons into Ukraine.Since February 2022, Orban has consistently called for peace talks and a ceasefire in Ukraine, putting him at odds with the US and other NATO countries. The US has discouraged peace talks throughout the war, including in March and April of 2022, when an actual peace deal was on the table.
Ukraine's Zelensky Rejects Idea of Ceasefire With Russia - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the idea of a ceasefirewith Russia in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday.The Ukrainian leader said he wouldn’t accept a ceasefire that leaves Russian forces in areas of Ukraine they have captured and said Russian President Vladimir Putin could not be trusted.“We cannot simply trust Putin in principle,” Zelensky said. “We cannot trust him because he is a killer and the aggressor.”Zelensky’s comments came after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban made his first wartime visit to Kyiv and suggested Zelensky consider a ceasefire with Russia rather than his so-called “peace formula” that requires a Russian withdrawal before peace talks can even begin.After meeting with Zelensky, Orban said that the Ukrainian leader was “not enthusiastic” about his idea. Ukrainian officials also said that Zelensky quickly rejected the proposal.On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he couldn’t agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine because he couldn’t be sure that it would be followed. Both Putin and Zelensky said the other side could use a ceasefire to rebuild its forces.“We can’t allow the enemy to use this ceasefire to improve its situation, to arm itself, to reconstitute its army through forced mobilization and to be ready to continue the armed conflict,” Putin said.In his interview, Zelensky said that he wanted to see former President Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine. Trump has claimed he could quickly end the war but hasn’t articulated how he would do it.Putin also discussed Trump’s comments and said he thought the former president was serious about ending the proxy war. “The fact that Mr. Trump, as a presidential candidate, declares that he is ready and wants to stop the war in Ukraine, we take this completely seriously,” he said.“I am not, of course, familiar with possible proposals for how he plans to do this. This is the key question. But I have no doubt that he means it sincerely, and we support it,” Putin added.
Ukrainian Drone Injures Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Workers -Ukrainian drones injured eight workers from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant while they were at a nearby electrical substation, Russia’s Rosatom nuclear power company said on Wednesday.The site of the substation is about 2.5 miles from the ZNPP, which has come under frequent Ukrainian attacks since it was captured by Russian forces in February 2022 during the first days of the invasion.“Ukrainian armed forces attacked the ‘Raduga’ substation, where at the time staff from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were working,” Rosatom wrote on Telegram.The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) condemned the attack. It said that its experts based at the ZNPP saw “thick smoke and heard explosions coming from near the plant’s 750 kilovolt (kV) switchyard.”The IAEA said that as a result of the attack, the substation was out of service, but the ZNPP was still receiving the electricity it needed “to cool its six reactors in cold shutdown and for other essential nuclear safety and security functions.”IAEA Director Rafael Grossi said, “It is extremely concerning that these drone attacks are continuing, despite the very clear dangers they present to people in Enerhodar as well as to safety at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. They must stop, immediately.”The ZNPP is located in the town of Enerhodar on the south bank of the Dnieper River. Ukraine controls the territory on the northern bank of the river and has launched several failed attempts to retake the ZNPP.
Ukraine Will Be Told It's Too Corrupt To Join NATO at Next Week's Summit - Ukraine will be told that it is too corrupt to join NATO at the alliance’s summit in Washington next week, The Telegraph reported on Tuesday.The report cited a US State Department official who said Ukraine needed to take “additional steps” before talks on its NATO membership could progress. “We have to step back and applaud everything that Ukraine has done in the name of reforms over the last two-plus years,” the official said.“As they continue to make those reforms, we want to commend them, we want to talk about additional steps that need to be taken, particularly in the area of anti-corruption. It is a priority for many of us around the table,” the official added.President Biden has frequently cited corruption as a reason for not admitting Ukraine into NATO, but that has not stopped him from spending over $100 billion on military and economic aid for the Ukrainian government with virtually no oversight. The position is expected to be outlined in a NATO communique issued during the summit. During last year’s NATO summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was looking for a clear roadmap to membership, but the alliance’s communique only offered a vague statement that it would invite Ukraine to join “when Allies agree and conditions are met.” NATO is poised to make some gestures to show support for Ukraine, including the stationing of a senior civilian official in Kyiv, according toThe Wall Street Journal. The idea is to show support for future Ukrainian NATO membership without actually offering an invitation.The Journal also reported that the alliance will announce the establishment of a new command in Wiesbaden, Germany, to oversee military aid and training for the Ukrainian military. The idea is to have the alliance take over duties currently overseen by the US so they could continue in the event that a future US president wants to reduce US involvement in the proxy war. The report said the steps to “Trump proof” the Ukraine proxy war have taken on a new urgency after President Biden’s poor performance in the first presidential debate. Former President Donald Trump has expressed skepticism about the war and said he would work out a deal to end it but hasn’t articulated a plan. He also backed House Speaker Mike Johnson as he moved forward an additional $61 billion in spending on the proxy war.
Global opinion towards Zelensky and Putin shifts in Pew survey - Global confidence in Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to do the right thing has declined across a broad grouping of countries, including in Europe, according to a Pew survey published Tuesday. The findings contrast with a slight improvement in global opinion toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, in particular among young people, although overall confidence in the Russian leader remains low. The Pew survey underscores how support for Ukraine is straining among its Western allies and that efforts to isolate Putin are faltering two years into the war.And the survey comes shortly before President Biden hosts the NATO summit in Washington that will mark the alliance’s 75th anniversary, during which ongoing support for Ukraine will be at the top of the agenda.Survey respondents were also asked their opinion of NATO, of which the median viewed the alliance favorably, but has ticked down in the U.S., Spain, the United Kingdom and Sweden — which only became a member in March. More than 44,000 people in 36 countries were surveyed across North and South America, Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Overall, an average of 46 percent of respondents said they do not have confidence in Zelensky to do the right thing, compared to 40 percent who said they do.“We’ve only started asking about him since the war broke out in 2022, and then he received quite high favorability or confidence,” said Moira Fagan, research associate at Pew Research Center specializing in international survey research.
French far right scores convincing first-round election win -- The far-right National Rally party in France scored a convincing early lead in the first round of the country’s parliamentary elections Sunday, according to pollsters, bringing controversial leader Marine Le Pen a step closer to forming a government. President Emmanuel Macron, of the centrist Renaissance party, executed a high-stakes gambitlast month by dissolving parliament after National Rally made significant gains in the European Parliament election.Macron hoped that National Rally’s hard-line immigration stance and antisemitic history would dampen its votes in the legislative election, but that wasn’t the case Sunday.National Rally and its allied parties won about 33 percent of the vote in the first round, according to early projections. A left-wing coalition of parties received 28 percent of the vote, while Macron’s coalition gathered 21 percent. Nearly two-thirds of French voters turned out Sunday, a massive increase from the pivotal 2022 elections, which saw Macron triumph over Le Pen for the presidency. That election saw just under 40 percent turnout. If National Rally were to gain a majority in parliament, it would force Macron to name a National Rally member — likely party President Jordan Bardella — as prime minister. It would also effectively gridlock his agenda.Macron has faced numerous challenges in recent months, including unrest over inflation and the economy writ large. Opponents mainly campaigned on cost of living increases and other common economic gripes with the French government. Renaissance and the left-wing coalition, meanwhile, have attacked National Rally for its nativist policies, including a proposed large-scale immigration crackdown and limits on the rights of dual nationals. Bardella has already pledged to scale back arms shipments to Ukraine if elected, a stark shift from Macron, who is among Europe’s most staunch allies of Kyiv. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, a Macron ally, warned of dire stakes if his opponents prevail in the second round of voting next week. A runoff will be held in districts where no parliamentary candidate secured 50 percent of the vote, and maneuvering in the coming days will decide the dynamics for each local race. National Rally would need 289 out of the 577 seats to secure an outright majority.“The extreme right is at the doors of power,” Attal said, twice describing National Rally policy pledges as “disastrous.” He added that in the second-round ballot, “not one vote should go to the National Rally. France does not deserve that.” Macron’s coalition finished a distant third in voting, behind a left-wing coalition that placed second.Attal said Sunday that candidates from his party who came in third in first round votes will bow out, in order to boost the left-wing coalition against National Rally.Le Pen appeared energized with the results, urging backers to fully oust Macron’s government from power.“The French have almost wiped out the ‘Macronist’ bloc,” she said after polls closed, adding that the results show voters’ “willingness to turn the page after seven years of contemptuous and corrosive power.”Bardella painted his opponents as “dangerous” in an appeal to voters.“The choice is clear,” Bardella said, accusing the left-wing coalition of campaigning for “disarming the police,” “opening wide the doors for immigration” and criticizing leftist leaders for “insulting institutions and anyone who thinks differently from them.”The second round of voting is July 7.
More tanks, ammunition, warships and fighter jets: German government intensifies arms offensive ahead of NATO summit in Washington Ahead of the NATO summit in Washington July 9-11, where the military alliance will decide on a massive escalation of its war against Russia, the German government is systematically pushing ahead with massive rearmament plans. A €1 billion armaments’ project follows next, and politicians and the media are overflowing with demands for even faster militarisation in order—in the words of Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (Social Democratic Party, SPD)—to become “ready for war” again. German Leopard tanks practice in Grafenwöhr [Photo by 7th Army Training Command / flickr / CC BY 2.0] At its last meeting before the summer break on Wednesday, the Parliamentary Budget Committee approved further armaments projects worth billions. In a press statement after the meeting, Pistorius boasted that “numerous large-scale projects from the Defence Ministry were once again on the committee’s agenda today.” Overall, we can look back on “a successful first six months,” he said. We have “shown that we are getting to work and that we are shaping the [foreign policy] new era.” After all, the armed forces “development projects are at the heart of the new era.” According to Pistorius, 42 so-called €25 million legislative bills totalling €27 billion had been approved by parliament in the last six months alone. This Wednesday, the focus was on the procurement of 105 Leopard 2A8 battle tanks worth almost €3 billion. According to reports, the tanks are to be delivered to the army by 2030 at the latest. In fact, 35 of them are to be available by 2028 to reinforce the planned German combat brigade in Lithuania. In other words, the armour upgrade is aimed directly at Russia. In a classified document for the Budget Committee, quoted by Der Spiegel, it says, among other things, that the brigade would be “one of the first elements of forward defence in the NATO alliance.” The “best possible and standardised equipment” of the brigade was therefore essential. The modernisation and reinforcement of the German army’s armoured forces as a whole was a “high priority” for the Bundeswehr (armed forces). For the German army, the order means a significant expansion of its fleet of tanks. The Bundeswehr currently has just over 300 Leopard main battle tanks. The new procurement would increase the fleet by more than a third. And that would only be the beginning. Politicians and the media regularly point out that the Bundeswehr still had more than 3,000 battle tanks at the time of the Cold War—before it was “cut to the bone.” A look at the Bundeswehr’s official website shows which war plans and criminal traditions the ruling class is once again following with its tank plans. There, an article on the “armoured troops” of the Bundeswehr openly praises Hitler’s “panzer general” Heinz Guderian, who played a key role in the war of annihilation against the Soviet Union, as a “mastermind for the design of a modern armoured force.” Guderian had already recognised after the First World War how effective “the massive use of tanks” was. “With the rearmament in National Socialist [Nazi] Germany,” Guderian was then able to “implement his ideas on the organisation and deployment of the armoured force.” “They were the basis for the blitzkriegs of the German Wehrmacht [army] in the Second World War,” the text continues. His “concept” envisaged “providing the armoured units with all the necessary support as they advanced. This included engineers, artillery, repairs and infantry.” Today, the German government is working on all of these elements and developing a veritable war economy, which is supported by the same armaments companies that were already arming the Wehrmacht. At the beginning of this week, Rheinmetall received the largest order in the company’s history from the Bundeswehr in the logistics vehicle segment. The signed framework agreement covers the delivery of up to 6,500 lorries worth up to €3.5 billion. Just a few days earlier, the armaments giant had signed the largest order in its history with the Bundeswehr. It involves the delivery of 155mm artillery ammunition worth up to €8.5 billion. The original framework agreement, which has been in place since July 2023 and is worth around €1.3 billion, has thus been increased by €7.2 billion. The exact number of projectiles ordered was not disclosed, but it is in the millions. It is also clear that some of these will go directly to the war regime in Kiev. “The customer will primarily be the Federal Republic of Germany, which will make some of the deliveries available to Ukraine,” said Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger after the contract was signed. In addition to the army, the navy and air force will also be comprehensively upgraded. In mid-June, the budget committee approved the financing of two additional type 126 frigates. The costs amount to around €3.18 billion, which will come exclusively from the defence budget. “With a total of six frigates of this type, we will not only be operational, but also sustainable,” boasted Pistorius at the keel laying ceremony for the first type 126 frigate on 3 June in Wolgast.
Deportation after one “like”—German cabinet tightens up deportation rules - The German cabinet agreed on a drastic tightening up of deportation rules on June 29. If the bill becomes law, all it will take is a single unfavourable click on the internet to be deported and handed over to your potential executioner. According to the draft law, immigration authorities will be able to deport non-German citizens without a court judgement if they “condone“ a terrorist offence.” In future, even a single comment that glorifies and condones a terrorist offence on social media can justify a serious interest in expulsion, according to the website of the Interior Ministry led by Nancy Faeser (Social Democratic Party, SPD), which is responsible for the draft. It is not necessary for the person concerned to explicitly support the “terrorist offence.” “Liking a post on social media such as YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, etc.,” is sufficient, as stated in the explanatory memorandum to the draft bill. Until now, a “serious interest in expulsion” by the state only existed in the case of criminal offences such as drug offences, trafficking in human beings or forced marriage. Offenders—or suspects—can be deported in such cases without first being convicted under criminal law. Now the same is made possible after a “like” on social media. This opens the door to completely arbitrary behaviour by the authorities. Interior Minister Faeser cited the “barbaric terrorist attacks by Hamas on Israel” as an example of a terrorist offence, the “approval” of which will lead to deportation. However, since the Hamas attack anyone who protests against the Israeli genocide in Gaza or points out that the conflict did not begin on October 7, 2023, but rather 75 years earlier with the Nakba, is accused of supporting terrorism. The deputy chair of the conservative CDU/CSU parliamentary group, Andrea Lindholz (CSU), for whom the draft law does not go far enough, is even explicitly calling for what is already implicitly included: the deportation of all those protesting against the genocide in Gaza. “In view of the mass antisemitism and caliphate demonstrations on German streets, every antisemitic and anti-democratic offence must regularly lead to deportation,” she said.
UK election results: Labour Party projected to win big --The Labour Party is projected to win a landslide victory Thursday evening, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule in the United Kingdom.Labour is on track to win 410 seats in the British House of Commons, a sizable margin above the 326 seats needed for a majority, according to a nationwide exit poll conducted by Ipsos for the BBC, ITV News and Sky News.Conservatives are set to grab 131 of the 650 seats, and smaller parties make up the rest.These polls, which are conducted at polling stations across the U.K., have historically given an accurate snapshot of the ultimate election results.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the Conservative leader, called a surprise snap election six weeks ago. The timing of the announcement raised eyebrows given the party’s relative unpopularity in the country.Conservatives have weathered several scandals, including the short-lived premiership of Liz Truss and the resignation of Boris Johnson amid allegations he held parties at No. 10 Downing St. during the pandemic.A Labour victory would also run counter to a recent streak of a rightward shift in other European countries, such as France. But those same populist trends are strong in the U.K., and the exit polls suggest voters have acted on well-reported dissatisfaction with Conservative’s handling on a number of issues including high costs of living and immigration levels.Labour leader Keir Starmer is expected to become the country’s next prime minister.
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