week ending Nov 30

FOMC Minutes: "appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance" - From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, November 6–7, 2024. Excerpt: In their discussion of financial stability, participants who commented noted vulnerabilities to the financial system that they assessed warranted monitoring. A couple of participants observed that the banking system was sound but that there continued to be potential risks associated with unrealized losses on bank assets. Many participants discussed vulnerabilities associated with CRE exposures, focusing on risks in the office sector. A few of these participants noted signs that the deterioration of conditions in this sector of the CRE market might be lessening. A couple of participants noted concerns about asset valuation pressures in other markets. Some participants commented on cyber risks that could impair the operation of financial institutions, financial infrastructure, and, potentially, the overall economy; these participants noted, in particular, vulnerabilities that could emanate from third-party service providers. A couple of participants also mentioned third-party service providers in the context of risks associated with brokered and reciprocal deposit arrangements. Several participants noted that leverage in the market for Treasury securities remained a risk and commented that it would be important to monitor developments regarding the market's resilience. A few participants discussed vulnerabilities posed by the growth of private credit and potential links to banks and other financial institutions. A couple of participants commented on the financial condition of low- and moderate-income households that have exhausted their savings and the importance of monitoring rising delinquency rates on credit cards and auto loans. A couple of participants remarked on the successful implementation of the Securities and Exchange Commission's money fund rules, noting that it would reduce financial stability risks posed by domestic MMFs....In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time. Participants noted that monetary policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy and the implications for the economic outlook and the balance of risks; they stressed that it would be important for the Committee to make this clear as it adjusted its policy stance. While emphasizing that monetary policy would be data dependent, many participants noted the volatility of recent economic data and highlighted the importance of focusing on underlying economic trends and the evolution of the outlook when assessing incoming information. Some participants remarked that, at a future meeting, there would be value in the Committee considering a technical adjustment to the rate offered at the ON RRP facility to set the rate equal to the bottom of the target range for the federal funds rate, thereby bringing the rate back into an alignment that had existed when the facility was established as a monetary policy tool.

Inflation Re-Accelerates Despite Plunging Gasoline Prices as “Core Services” PCE Price Index Hits 7-Month High - By Wolf Richter - Inflation has been in services and is still in services, it has become sticky in services, and recently it has been re-accelerating in services. Services dominate consumer spending. And durable goods prices rose for the second month in a row, after big drops. But gasoline prices continued to plunge, and food prices ticked up just a little, according to the PCE price index by the Bureau of Economic Analysis today. This is the data the Fed prioritizes as yardstick for its 2% inflation target. Three of the four major metrics accelerated in October even on a year-over-year basis: the overall PCE price index to +2.3% (blue), the “Core” PCE price index to +2.8%, (red), and the “Core Services” PCE price index to +3.9% (gold), while the durable goods PCE Price index started rising from the ashes and became less negative (green). The Fed has already been talking down the pace of future rate cuts recently, including in the meeting minutes yesterday and in speeches by Fed governors. The driver: “Core Services.” The PCE price index for “core Services” accelerated to +4.4% annualized in October from September (+0.36% not annualized), the sharpest increase since March (blue in the chart below). The three-month core services index accelerated to 3.8% annualized (red). Core services include housing, healthcare, financial services & insurance, transportation services, non-energy utilities, communication services, recreation services, food services & accommodation, and “other” services. But it excludes energy services, such as electricity to the home. Year-over-year, core services PCE price index accelerated to 3.9%, the fastest increase since May. There has essentially been no progress since May: The “core” PCE price index accelerated to +3.3% annualized in October from September (+0.27% not annualized), the biggest month-to-month increase since March. This month-to-month acceleration was driven by the jump in the core services PCE price index (see above). The “core” index attempts to show underlying inflation by excluding the components of food and energy as they can jump and drop with commodity prices. The 3-month core PCE price index accelerated to +2.80% annualized, the third acceleration in a row, and the fastest increase since April (red). The 6-month core PCE price index accelerated to +2.34% annualized (red), and has remained higher all year than it had been at the end of last year: The durable goods PCE price index increased by 0.7% annualized (+0.06% not annualized) in October from September, on top of the big jump in August, which had been the biggest increase in two years, after a series of steep negative readings (deflation). In October, the month-to-month increase was due to motor vehicles, while prices fell for household furnishings & appliances, recreational goods & vehicles, and “other” durable goods. As a result, the 6-month index became less negative (-1.8%, red line). And the year-over-year index also became less negative, see green line in first chart at the top (-1.6%). In recent decades, durable goods prices trended lower on average due to manufacturing efficiencies, technological improvements, and offshoring production to cheap countries (globalization). Over these decades, the driving force in inflation has been services. During the pandemic, durable goods prices spiked due to the sudden demand fueled by massive economic stimulus that made consumers suddenly willing to pay whatever for goods, and there was huge demand for goods, overwhelming supply chains, giving companies enormous pricing power, and they used that pricing power: The overall PCE price index, which includes the food and energy components, rose by 2.3% year-over-year in October, an acceleration from September (+2.1%), despite the plunge in gasoline and other energy prices of -12.4% year-over-year and -1.0% month-to-month (not annualized). Food and energy prices make up the difference between the overall PCE price index (blue) and the core PCE Price index (red). The price spikes of food and energy in 2021-2022 caused the overall PCE Price index to shoot to +7%, while the core PCE price index, which tracks the underlying inflation beyond commodities prices, topped out at 5.5%. As energy prices have been plunging starting in mid-2022, the overall PCE price index decelerated faster than the core PCE Price index, leaving the core PCE price index with a higher rate.

Q3 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.8% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2024 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, according to the "second" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was also 2.8 percent. The update primarily reflected upward revisions to private inventory investment and nonresidential fixed investment as well as downward revisions to exports and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was revised down from 3.7% to 3.5%. Residential investment was revised up from -5.1% to -5.0%.

Warren cautions Trump's treasury pick on Fed's independence -- Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) urged President-elect Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary, billionaire investor Scott Bessent, to not interfere with the Federal Reserve.“I have been a fierce critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s extreme interest rate hikes and lack of transparency, but I have never questioned that it is his job to make those decisions,” Warrensaid Monday in a statement. “It would be a serious error for the Trump administration to interfere with the Fed’s independence, as Mr. Bessent has suggested.” Bessent was named Friday as Trump’s Treasury secretary. If confirmed by the Senate, he would be the top leader of the president-elect’s economic team, which will be tasked with rolling out the tariffs Trump promised during his campaign that would shake up global trade. The announcement of his nomination notably did not mention tariffs, however.Bessent is the founder and CEO of hedge fund Key Square Group, and he served as an economic adviser to Trump’s campaign.Powell was appointed to the Federal Reserve in 2017 by Trump. President Biden reappointed him in 2021, despite objections from progressives like Warren who say he has kept rates too high for too long. Powell’s term ends in 2026, and he has said he would not resign before that, even if Trump asks him to.The Fed is a politically independent agency and closely guards its reputation as such, but earlier this year Trump suggested he should at least have a say in monetary policy, including interest rates, because he has “made a lot of money.”Warren, who sits on the Senate Finance Committee, is critical of both Powell and Bessent. In her statement, she said Bessent’s nomination may give Wall Street a “sigh of relief,” but working people will see “no help coming their way.”“A Treasury Secretary must safeguard our financial system, ensure the fairness of our tax system, and expand economic opportunities for the middle class, particularly around housing affordability,” Warren said.As lawmakers prepare to work with Trump’s nominees come January, Warren said she is willing to work across the aisle on behalf of the American people. “I do not know if Mr. Bessent will transfer his loyalty from Wall Street investors to America’s workers, but I am willing to work with anyone to advance the interests of working families,” Warren said. “I look forward to reviewing the Treasury Secretary nominee’s record and meeting with him ahead of his confirmation hearing.”

IRS at risk of losing $20 billion in funding without legislative intervention (AP) — Already bracing for funding cuts under a new Trump administration, U.S. Treasury officials are calling on Congress to unlock $20 billion in IRS enforcement money that is tied up in legislative language that has effectively rendered the money frozen.Hoping to unlock the funds in upcoming budget negotiations, Treasury officials are rushing for action before President Joe Biden’s term ends.The $20 billion in question is separate from another $20 billion rescinded from the agency last year. However, the legislative mechanism keeping the government afloat inadvertently duplicated the one-time cut.Treasury officials warn of dire consequences if the funding is effectively rescinded through inaction. The loss of that money would lead to an increase of the national deficit by $140 billion, Treasury Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo said on a call to reporters on Tuesday. There would be 6,000 fewer audits of wealthy individuals and 2,000 fewer audits of large corporations, and the agency would have to go on a hiring freeze, he said.“The IRS is going to potentially have to make dramatic decisions about stopping hiring and starting to budget for a world which they don’t have $20 billion which will stop a lot of their progress,” Adeyemo said. ”If they don’t get that $20 billion that is at risk they would run out of enforcement money at the current pace sometime in fiscal year 2025.”

Khanna says Democrats will work with Musk’s DOGE on cutting defense budget -- Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) on Monday suggested that Democrats could work with tech billionaire Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) on cutting the defense budget. The issue came up during an interview Khanna gave to CNN anchor Jim Acosta, who noted the new efficiency panel. President-elect Trump named Musk and former GOP presidential primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to be the heads of the government efficiency effort. Acosta asked Khanna if those two should have that much sway over “what stays and what goes in the federal government.” “Well, ultimately, they’re gonna provide recommendations,” Khanna replied on “CNN Newsroom.” He then said the two could provide input and there could be bipartisan collaboration on defense. He criticized “waste, fraud and abuse” in the defense budget and said the Defense Department “has failed the last six or seven audits.” Khanna also posted a clip of his CNN appearance from Monday morning on social platform X. “When it comes to cutting waste, fraud, and abuse and opening the 5 primes to more competition, there are Democrats on [House Armed Services Committee] who will work with @elonmusk and @DOGE,” Khanna said in the post. “Cool!” Musk replied to Khanna’s post on X. Earlier this month, Trump said Musk and Ramaswamy would serve as the heads of DOGE, which aims to “slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures” and restructure federal agencies. DOGE would “provide advice and guidance from outside of government” and work alongside the White House Office of Management and Budget, the president-elect said. “It will become, potentially, ‘The Manhattan Project’ of our time,” Trump added. “Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of ‘DOGE’ for a very long time.”

Trump team working ‘hand in glove’ with Biden administration on national security: Waltz -- Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), President-elect Trump’s choice for national security adviser in his next administration, said Sunday that the Trump transition team is working “hand in glove” with the Biden administration on national security.“[White House national security adviser] Jake Sullivan and I have had discussions. We’ve met,” Waltz told anchor Gillian Turner on “Fox News Sunday.”“For our adversaries out there that think this is a time of opportunity that they can play one administration off the other, they’re wrong, and we are — we are hand in glove. We are — we are one team with the United States in this transition,” he added.Trump has said on Truth Social that Waltz, who is a part of the House Armed Services, Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees, is an “expert on the threats posed by China, Russia, Iran and global terrorism” and a “champion of my America First Foreign Policy agenda and will be a tremendous champion of our pursuit of peace through strength.” The 2024 presidential election was marked by strife and chaos, featuring Trump facing assassination attempts, a candidate swap at the top of the Democratic ticket and deep political polarization.In the wake of the high-tension election cycle, President Biden and the president-elect had a meeting in the Oval Office earlier this month. The current president said he was anticipating “having a smooth transition” during the meeting.“It will be as smooth as it can get, and I very much appreciate that, Joe,” Trump said in response.Waltz said Sunday that the president-elect “has a mandate to execute these policies that he has outlined and to continue the great policies he had in his first — in his first term” when it comes to national security.

HRW: Israel Deliberately Killed Three Journalists in Lebanon With US Bomb - Human Rights Watch said in a report on Monday that an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon that killed three journalists and injured four others was most likely a deliberate attack on civilians and a war crime that was carried out using a US-provided weapon.The strike was conducted on October 25, 2024, and targeted the Hasbaya Village Club Resort in Hasbaya, southern Lebanon, where more than a dozen journalists had been staying. The strike hit the building at around 3 am when most of the journalists were sleeping.HRW said it found no evidence of military activity in the area and reviewed information that indicated the Israeli military knew or should have known that journalists were staying in the building.The strike killed Ghassan Najjar, a journalist and cameraman, and Mohammad Reda, a satellite broadcast engineer, who both worked for Al Mayadeen. Wissam Kassem, a cameraman for the Hezbollah-owned Al Manar TV, was also killed.HRW said it determined the attack was carried out using a bomb fitted with a US-provided Joint Direct Attack Munition guidance kit manufactured by the American company Woodard. The JDAM kits are developed and sold by Boeing.HRW called on the US to end weapons transfers to Israel. “Israel’s use of US arms to unlawfully attack and kill journalists away from any military target is a terrible mark on the United States as well as Israel,” said Richard Weir, a senior HRW researcher. “The Israeli military’s previous deadly attacks on journalists without any consequences give little hope for accountability in this or future violations against the media.” Israel has slaughtered an unprecedented number of journalists since October 2023, killing 174 in Gaza, according to the Palestinian Journalists Syndicate. The US has continued to provide military aid to Israel despite clear evidence of war crimes and Israel’s blocking of humanitarian aid deliveries in Gaza.

Biden touts Israel-Hezbollah cease-fire deal - President Joe Biden on Tuesday touted a cease-fire deal between Israel and the militant group Hezbollah after more than a year of fighting between the two sides. In the Rose Garden, Biden said he’d spoken with the leaders of Lebanon and Israel this afternoon and that both governments agreed to the cease-fire beginning at 4 a.m. local time tomorrow. “The fighting across the Lebanese-Israeli border will end. Will end. This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,” the president said. “If Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self defense consistent with international law just like any country when facing a terrorist group pledged to that country’s destruction.” Under the deal outlined by the president, the Lebanese army will take control of their own territory in the south, Hezbollah infrastructure will not be allowed to be rebuilt and Israel forces will withdraw over the next 60 days. The cease-fire deal, brokered by France and the United States, is not the one Biden was hoping to be touting as a capstone to his presidency. He is still hoping for an agreement to end hostilities in Gaza. The current fighting between the two countries began the day after Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas militia fighters attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking more as hostages. Toward the end of his speech, Biden turned his attention to the war raging in Gaza. “The people of Gaza have been through hell. Their world is absolutely shattered. Far too many civilians in Gaza have suffered far too much,” Biden said, blaming Hamas for not negotiating a ceasefire in good faith over the last few months. Biden added that the United States, along with “Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and others” would take on a renewed push to get a ceasefire deal in that region of the Middle East through the remainder of his presidency.

Israel carpet bombs Beirut after Biden announces ceasefire -The government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu carpet bombed Beirut and its southern suburbs on Tuesday, moments after US President Joe Biden announced a ceasefire between the Zionist regime and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Just before Netanyahu’s security cabinet was scheduled to meet on the deal, the Israeli military launched what has been described as a relentless air assault on the Lebanese capital city, including strikes on residential buildings that house displaced people. One of the strikes completely leveled a building in central Beirut’s Nuwairi district less than an hour before the attacks on the suburbs began. Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) said, “A fierce airstrike carried out on Tuesday by Israeli enemy warplanes targeted a building near Khatem al-Anbiyaa Mosque in Al-Nuwairi area of Beirut.” An NNA correspondent said the raid on Nuwairi targeted a four-story building and at least seven people were killed and 37 wounded, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. As rubble is removed and the search is underway for survivors, the death toll is expected to rise. NNA said the apartment building that was struck was in central Beirut’s Hamra district. Hamra is the capital’s busiest commercial district and home to two American universities and multiple international nonprofit offices. NNA also reported “a hostile drone hit al-Qard al-Hassan in Zuqaq al-Blat,” referring to a Hezbollah-linked financial institution. A report by the New York Times said: The first Israeli airstrike that rattled Beirut, the Lebanese capital, on Tuesday struck without warning, destroying a four-story building in the heart of the city. Then a barrage of airstrikes struck the city’s southern suburbs in quick succession: One strike, then two, then 20—all within minutes and all sending plumes of black smoke across the skyline. Soon a city on edge was panicked, as the Israeli military issued warnings for four more imminent strikes in the capital. People jumped into their cars or took to the streets on foot trying to get out of the city, clogging the roads with crowds and bumper-to-bumper traffic. Few were certain of where to go or how to avoid the neighborhoods highlighted in the warnings. Other press reports said that at least 25 were killed by the air strikes across Lebanon. The health ministry said at least 10 people were killed in central Beirut, six in the southern town of Shaqra, two in the southern town of Tyre, six in the Baalbek-Hermel region and one in Hadath in the Mount Lebanon area south of Beirut. As per the modus operandi of Israel, the Zionist military justified its assault on unarmed civilians and refugees with references to “intelligence” about “nine terror targets that were components of Hezbollah’s financial management and systems in the areas of Beirut, Sidon, Tyre, and Beqaa, in continuation of earlier strikes.” By around 4:00 p.m. US Eastern Time, media outlets began reporting that the Israeli security cabinet had approved the ceasefire. A statement from the prime minister’s office said the cabinet approved it by a majority of 10 ministers against one. However, the statement went on to say Israel “maintains its right to act against any threat to its security.” In other words, the US-backed ceasefire only applies to Hezbollah.

Trump team says Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal brokered by Biden is actually Trump's win (AP) — The Biden administration kept President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration closely apprised of its efforts to broker the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah that took effect early Wednesday, according to the outgoing Democratic administration. Trump’s team, meanwhile, was quick to spike the football and claim credit for the rare spot of good news for a Democratic administration that’s been dragged down by the grinding Mideast conflict. “Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,” Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, Trump’s choice for his national security adviser, said in a post on X on Tuesday, shortly before the Israel Cabinet signed off on the agreement. “His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East.”The Biden administration’s reported coordination with Trump’s team on its efforts to forge the ceasefire in Lebanon is perhaps the highest-profile example of cooperation in what’s been a sometimes choppy transition period. Trump’s transition team just Tuesday reached a required agreement with President Joe Biden’s White House that will allow transition staff to coordinate with the existing federal workforce before Trump takes office on Jan. 20. There has been some coordination on high levels between the outgoing Biden and incoming Trump teams, including talks between Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Waltz.Biden in Rose Garden remarks on Tuesday cheered the ceasefire agreement as a critical step that he hoped could be the catalyst for a broader peace in the Mideast, which has been shaken bynearly 14 months of war following Hamas’ attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. “This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities,” Biden said. “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — I emphasize, will not be allowed — to threaten the security of Israel again.”

New Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire in Effect, But IDF Warns Evacuation Still in Effect - At 9:00 PM EST/4:00 AM Beirut time, the Israel-Lebanon ceasefireofficially took effect, potentially ending an ongoing Israeli invasion and repeated airstrikes which have killed thousands and displaced well over a million Lebanese civilians.The deal was brokered by the US, and the Israeli security cabinet voted earlier today to support it. The deal proscribes a 60-day ceasefire in which Hezbollah is to move its armed assets north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese government is supposed to deploy its army into the southern area of the country as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah.Israel, for their part, is intended to withdraw their ground troops from southern Lebanon, and to stop attacking Lebanese territory. If Israel sees “suspicious movements,” US officials say they are to report it to a US-led committee, which would forward the complain to the Lebanese military. It is only after that point that they would be free to respond if Lebanon doesn’t take action.The immediate question must be how the ceasefire will be implemented, and when the Israeli troops will actually leave. Israeli military Avichay Adraee issued a statement after the ceasefire went into effect warning Lebanese civilians against attempting to return to their homes in the evacuation zones, saying the prohibition is still in effect. He said Israel would inform them at a later date when it is safe to return.That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, and the seeming escalation of Israeli attacks in the last few hours before it came into effect added to concerns. In those final hours, Israel carried out multiple attacks on the north Lebanon border crossings into Syria, and imposed new evacuation orders in multiple southern suburbs of Beirut.The attacks on the border crossings are noteworthy, because during the war Israel has repeatedly attacked the main crossings through eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley leading into Qusayr. That makes some sense, as the Bekaa Valley is a known Hezbollah haven. The north crossings, on the other hand, lead into Syria’s coastal Tartus Province. Syrian state media reported a number of people were wounded in these attacks.The attacks on southern Beirut seem to be the last thing Israel did before the ceasefire went into attack. Israel issued evacuation orders on southern and central Beirut just two hours before the 9:00 PM ceasefire, and attacks began less than an hour before that deadline.

Northern Gaza: 130,000 Children Deprived of Food and Medicine Under Israeli Siege - The international charity Save the Children said in a press release on Monday that about 130,000 Palestinian children under the age of 10 have been trapped under an Israeli siege in northern Gaza for 50 days.The organization said children living in north Gaza “have been almost completely cut off from supplies of food, water, and medicine since October 6, 2024, when Israeli forces declared the area to be a closed military zone, with the independent Famine Review Committee (FRC) saying that famine is either imminent or likely already occurring in the area.”In early October, Israel ordered the evacuation of northern Gaza and declared the area a military zone as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign. The operation has been focused on the cities of Beit Lahia, Jabalia, and Beit Hanoun, which have been under a total siege, and barely any aid has reached Gaza City.Save the Children noted that the UN “also warned nearly a month ago that the entire population of North Gaza governorate was at risk of dying, yet attempts by aid groups to access the area have been repeatedly denied by Israeli forces.” The charity said it had been trying to deliver food parcels to northern Gaza for over seven weeks, but the effort failed, and the aid was re-directed to the south.Ruba, a mother of two in northern Gaza, described her situation to Save the Children. “I am trapped with my children under relentless bombs, rockets, and bullets, with nowhere to run. My mother is paralyzed, and I cannot leave her behind. My brother has been killed, my husband was taken, and I don’t know if he’s alive. Our home was destroyed over our heads, and we survived by a miracle,” she said.“With no food, no clean water, and constant fear, both my children have developed rashes, and my daughter is passing blood, but there is no medicine, no help, and absolutely nothing I can do. They cry and ask me why we can’t just leave, why their father isn’t with us, why we can’t go back to a normal life,” Ruba added.On October 13, the Biden administration sent a letter to Israeli officials that said Israel must allow more aid trucks into Gaza within 30 days. During that 30-day period, the aid situation in Gaza only got worse, and Israel came nowhere close to fulfilling the demands in the letter. But when the deadline came, the Biden administration said there would be no consequences for Israel, and US weapons shipments continue to flow, confirming the letter was just a pre-election public relations stunt.

US Moving Forward $680 Million Weapons Package for Israel - The Biden administration is moving forward with a $680 million weapons package for Israel as the US continues to fuel Israel’s onslaught in Gaza. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the administration has notified Congress of its intention to go ahead with the arms deal for Israel, which includes Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bomb kits and small-diameter bombs. It’s unclear how the deal will be financed, but it will likely be paid for with US military aid. The US provides Israel with a form of aid known as Foreign Military Financing (FMF), which provides foreign governments with money to purchase US-made weapons. Last month, Israel signed a $5.2 billion contract with Boeing to purchase 25 F-15 fighter jets in a deal that’s being financed by US military aid. Brown University’s Costs of War Project said in a report last month that US support for Israel over the past year had cost US taxpayers at least $22.76 billion. The total includes $17.9 billion in direct military aid and $4.8 billion in spending on US military operations in support of Israel, including the bombing campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. President Biden has provided Israel with more aid than any other American president in history, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been complaining about the pace of the deliveries. “It is no secret that there have been big delays in weapons and munitions deliveries,” Netanyahu said while announcing plans for a Lebanon ceasefire on Tuesday. US foreign assistance laws prohibit providing military aid to countries that intentionally block humanitarian aid and commit human rights violations with US weapons, making the continued armed shipments illegal.Sen. Bernie Sanders introduced legislation to block several arms sales to Israel on the basis that they were illegal. His effort failed to pass the Senate but received more support than expected. One of the resolutions received support from 19 senators, 17 Democrats, and two independents.

US threats against the International Criminal Court and the normalization of genocide On Thursday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) formally issued warrants for the arrest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The action is a testament to the criminality of the war of extermination waged by Israel against the people of Gaza with the support of the US and other imperialist powers. While the official death toll is at least 42,000, there are estimates as high as 186,000 (in The Lancet last July) and even higher. More than 90 percent of the pre-invasion population of Gaza has been internally displaced. The entire population has been subjected to severe shortages of food and water, and the majority of houses, schools, hospitals and universities have been either damaged or destroyed. The court charged Netanyahu and Gallant with “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare” and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution and other inhumane acts. The ruling vindicates the mass protests carried out by millions all over the world against the Gaza genocide, which the imperialist governments have falsely denounced as being motivated by antisemitism. Netanyahu’s guilt is imperialism’s guilt. The entire American political establishment, from the Biden administration and the Democratic Party to the Republican Party and the incoming Trump administration, has supported the genocide and has united in condemning the ICC decision. In a statement on Thursday, Senator Tom Cotton made threats to wage war against countries or even assassinate leaders who cooperate with the ICC case, while fellow Republican Lindsey Graham has led a bipartisan group of senators pushing for the US to sanction the International Criminal Court. The White House expressed its openness to calls for sanctioning the ICC. President Joe Biden responded to the warrants with an open endorsement of Israel’s war against the population of Gaza, declaring, “Whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence—none—between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.” There is, in fact, no equivalence. The Palestinians are an oppressed people who have been subjected to decades of occupation at the hands of Israel, confined to open-air prisons and denied the most basic democratic rights. Israel is a massively armed state financed by imperialism, carrying out a genocide against a population it illegally occupies. American officials are well aware that the charges brought by the ICC do not only condemn Israel. It is a well established legal principle that those who finance, direct and authorize a crime are culpable in its commission. To the extent that US officials have bothered to give rationalizations for their attack on the ICC’s case against Netanyahu, it has been to declare, in the words of White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre, that the “ICC does not have jurisdiction over this matter.” This is a fraud. The International Court of Justice ruled definitively this year that the Israeli occupation of Palestine is illegal, and the International Criminal Court likewise ruled that it has standing to bring charges against Israeli leaders for crimes committed in Palestine. The Gaza genocide is part of a global eruption of imperialist war, centrally targeting Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, aimed at the total subjugation of the former colonial world to the imperialist powers. The crimes of Nazi Germany, condemned as aberrations by capitalist governments of the past, are being more and more accepted as the model in the conduct of imperialist foreign policy.In their response to the ICC’s charges against Netanyahu, the imperialist powers have made clear that they intend to continue funding and arming the Gaza genocide and shield its persecutors from accountability.

US Bombs 'Iranian-Aligned Target' in Syria - The US military announced on Tuesday that it launched a strike in Syria against an “Iranian-aligned target,” marking at least the third time this month the US has bombed Syria. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said the strike targeted “an Iranian-aligned militia weapons storage facility,” referring to Shia militias that operate in Syria. The command said the bombing came after a US base in Syria came under attack.The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported the strike, saying US forces based at the al-Omar oil field in eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor province launched missiles at “positions of Iran-backed militias.” SOHR said no casualties were reported in the US strike.A day earlier, reports said a US occupation base in al-Shaddadi in the northeastern al-Hasakah province came under attack. There were no reports of any US casualties, and it’s unclear if any damage was done.Earlier this month, the US launched two rounds of strikes against the Shia militias. SOHR said nine militia members were killed in the two bombings, but those numbers haven’t been confirmed. The US has about 900 troops in eastern Syria as part of an illegal military occupation and backs the Kurdish-led SDF, allowing the US to control a significant portion of Syrian territory. US troops in Syria and the 2,500 US soldiers in Iraq are vulnerable to attack and could be a tripwire for a wider war.

Tehran makes overtures to Trump, as he prepares to escalate Washington’s war on Iran Iran’s bourgeois-clerical regime is making overtures to the incoming Trump administration, in the hopes that it can strike a “peace” deal with the billionaire fascist. When he was last in the White House, Trump scuttled the Iran nuclear deal, waged economic war on Iran, and brought the US and Iran to the brink of war with the illegal drone strike assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Qasem Soleimani. Tehran is signaling its readiness to bargain with Trump, even as he makes clear that he intends to deal with Iran even more ruthlessly than during his first term, and that he will do so working in the closest concert with Israel, which is already waging war against Iran in all but name. Meanwhile, the principal European imperialist powers, angered by Iran’s supplying of Russia with armaments to fight the Ukraine war, and anxious to placate Trump and pursue their own predatory ambitions in the Middle East, are intensifying pressure on Iran. During the 14 months of the Gaza genocide, Israel has struck out against Iran and its allies across the region with increasing brazenness and violence, violating one Iranian “red line” after another. Its ability to do so has been entirely bound up with US imperialist support—political, materiel, logistical, and financial. Within days of the outbreak of the Gaza war, the Biden administration deployed two aircraft carrier groups and a nuclear-armed submarine to the region to menace Iran. On three subsequent occasions, the Pentagon undertook massive military mobilizations to provide Israel with an air shield to protect it from Iranian drones and missiles, and signal that it stands ready to act on its longstanding and constantly revised plans for all-out war with Iran. After several days of intense debate within the Iranian regime, Tehran vowed that it would respond forcefully to Israel’s October 26 air attack on multiple Iranian targets, including missile production facilities. “We have never left an aggression unanswered in 40 years,” declared an IRGC leader. However, everything indicates that following Trump’s November 5 election victory there was a reappraisal. Plans to retaliate against Israel in demonstrable fashion and with the stated aim of restoring “deterrence” were shelved or at the very least put on hold, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei bowed to pressure from countervailing voices. Even as Israel has targeted IRGC personnel across the region, assassinated the political head of Hamas while an honoured guest in Tehran, and twice carried out air strikes on Iran, a significant faction of the Islamic Republic’s leadership has been militating for rapprochement with Israel’s US and European imperialist sponsors. They argue that Iran can only get relief from the US-led economic sanctions that have strangled its economy, and access to vitally needed investments and technology if Tehran integrates itself into an imperialist dominated Middle East. Left unsaid is that they see reconciliation with the US and EU powers as providing the best conditions for a restructuring of Iranian socio-economic life to eliminate what little remains of the social concessions made to working people in the immediate aftermath of the 1979 revolution that overthrew the US-backed Shah. The current Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, elected in a special election last June following his predecessor’s death in a helicopter crash, has persisted in his appeals to the Europeans, and now Trump, to work with Tehran in ensuring order and stability across the Middle East, even as he has been forced to admit that all Iran’s overtures to date have been rebuffed.

White House Confirms It Authorized ATACMS Strikes on Russian Territory - The White House confirmed for the first time on Monday that it authorized Ukraine to launch US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) into Russia, an escalation Russia has made clear risks nuclear war.National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the US “did change the guidance” for Ukraine to allow ATACMS strikes on Russian territory, including in the Kursk Oblast, where Russia is gradually pushing out an invading Ukrainian force.“They are able to use ATACMS to defend themselves, you know, in an immediate-need basis. And right now, you know, understandably, that’s taking place in and around Kursk, in the Kursk Oblast,” Kirby said.The New York Times first reported last week that President Biden authorized Ukraine to fire ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles, into Russian territory. Two days later, Ukraine fired ATACMS into Russia’s Bryansk Oblast.Unconfirmed reports from Ukrainian military bloggers say Ukraine struck a Russian airfield in Kursk on Sunday night with a cluster bomb ATACMS, which are an older variant and have a shorter range than the newer version. Cluster bombs spread small submunitions over large areas and can leave duds behind that civilians can come across years after the conflict. They have been banned by more than 100 countries due to their indiscriminate nature, but the US has poured them into Ukraine.Russia has said that the authorization of ATACMS strikes on Russian territory means the US is now directly at war with Russia since Ukraine needs intelligence from the US to fire the missiles. Ukraine has also been given the green light to use British-provided Storm Shadow missiles in strikes on Russia and the French variant, known as SCALP missiles.Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that he believes Russia now has the right to strike the military facilities of countries supplying such missiles to Ukraine. “We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” Putin said last week. “If anyone else doubts this, then they are wrong – there will always be a response.”

Russia Says Ukraine Hit Kursk With US ATACMS Twice in Recent Days - - Russia said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces fired US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) into Russia’s Kursk Oblast twice in recent days and vowed there would be a response.The Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine fired five ATACMS against Russian S-400 missile defense systems on November 23. The ministry said air defenses intercepted three missiles while two hit their targets, resulting in the damage of a radar station and the injury of several Russian troops.Two days later, on November 25, Ukrainian forces fired eight ATACMS at a Russian airfield in Kursk. The ministry said seven were intercepted while one hit its target, damaging infrastructure and wounding two Russian soldiers.The Defense Ministry said that “retaliatory actions are being prepared.” Last week, Ukraine launched its first ATACMS strike on Russian territory,targeting the Bryansk Oblast. In response to that strike and Ukraine also firing British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia, the Russian military fired a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile at a military factory in Ukraine.When discussing the ATACMS and Storm Shadow attacks, Putin said Russia had a right to strike the military facilities of the countries that are supplying such missiles to Ukraine, demonstrating how the NATO-supported long-range strikes in Russia risk World War III and nuclear escalation.“We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” Putin said. “If anyone else doubts this, then they are wrong – there will always be a response.” ATACMS have a range of about 190 miles, and Storm Shadows can hit targets up to 155 miles away. Both missiles require intelligence from Ukraine’s Western backers to be fired, meaning that NATO is now directly supporting strikes on Russian territory. While the strikes risk nuclear escalation, US officials have admitted the capability is not expected to alter the course of the war, and Ukraine is said to only have a limited supply of the ATACMS and Storm Shadows.

Biden Asks Congress To Authorize $24 Billion More To Spend on Ukraine - The Biden administration has asked Congress to approve $24 billion in additional spending on Ukraine as it’s working to ramp up the proxy war as much as possible during President Biden’s final weeks in office. POLITICO Pro obtained a request from the White House’s Office of Management and Budget that asked Congress to include additional Ukraine spending in a continuing resolution that’s expected to be voted on next month. Two congressional aides said Congress received the proposal on Monday.The request asks for $8 billion for the Ukraine Security Assistance initiative, a form of military aid that allows the US to purchase weapons for Ukraine, and $16 billion to replace US military equipment that’s been sent to Ukraine.The money to replenish US weapons would allow the Biden administrationto use the remaining Presidential Drawdown Authority for Ukraine, which allows the US to ship weapons directly from US military stockpiles. The administration is looking to rush arms shipments to Ukraine throughout the rest of the transition period.If Congress agrees to the request, it would bring total US spending on the proxy war, according to publicly available data, to about $210 billion. Earlier this year, President Biden signed a foreign military aid bill into lawthat included $61 billion for Ukraine. Before that, the US spent at least $125 billion on the conflict.US officials have told The Washington Post that the Biden administration is trying to put Ukraine in the best position possible before President-elect Donald Trump might push for an end to the war. US officials acknowledged that within a few months, Ukraine could be pushed into negotiations and could end up ceding territory.

White House Pressing Ukraine To Draft 18-Year-Olds for War - The White House is pressuring Ukraine to increase the size of its military by lowering the minimum age of conscription from 25 to 18, The Associated Press reported on Wednesday. A senior Biden administration official said the outgoing administration wants Ukraine to start drafting 18-year-olds to expand the current pool of fighting-age males. The pressure from the US comes as polling shows the majority of Ukrainians want peace talks with Russia to end the war. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan recently hinted that the US was pressuring Ukraine to expand conscription, saying Ukraine’s biggest problem in the war was the lack of manpower. “Our view has been that there’s not one weapon system that makes a difference in this battle. It’s about manpower, and Ukraine needs to do more, in our view, to firm up its lines in terms of the number of forces it has on the front lines,” Sullivan said on PBS News Hour last week. Last month, Serhiy Leshchenko, an aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Ukraine was under pressure from US politicians to lower the conscription age. “American politicians from both parties are putting pressure on President Zelensky to explain why there is no mobilization of those aged 18 to 25 in Ukraine,” he said. Zelensky signed a mobilization bill into law back in April that lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25. A few weeks before the mobilization bill became law, Zelensky received a visit from US Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who complained that not enough young Ukrainian med were being sent to the frontline. “I would hope that those eligible to serve in the Ukrainian military would join. I can’t believe it’s at 27,” Graham said. “You’re in a fight for your life, so you should be serving — not at 25 or 27. We need more people in the line.” The Biden administration’s push for Ukraine to draft younger men comes as it is doing everything it can to escalate the proxy war before President-elect Donald Trump is inaugurated on January 20. President Biden isseeking another $24 billion to spend on the conflict even though it’s clear there’s no path to a Ukrainian military victory.

Sen. Mike Rounds blasts those who would give concessions to Putin in Ukraine -Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) pushed back against the idea that the Russian war in Ukraine could end in peaceful negotiation, saying those who hold that view “may be deceiving” themselves. In a speech at the Halifax International Security Forum this weekend, Rounds called Russian President Vladimir Putin a “tyrant” and suggested he would be surprised if Putin were satisfied with any concession from the West. “It’s time to take a hard look at this thing and really ask ourselves, do you believe that this tyrant, if you offer him a part of a free country, do you think he’s going to stop?” Rounds said. “Or do you think he’s going to look at that and say, ‘You see? We’re strength. We’re Russian strength.’” “See, I think that’s what happens,” Rounds continued. Rounds said the United States needs to stand by Ukraine and give the democratic country the agency to determine for itself the best path forward. “I think the best thing in the world that we can do is make our commitment to Ukraine,” Rounds said, “allow them to participate in deciding whether or not victory is actually achieved and whether or not Russia would continue to support a tyrant as the body bags continue to come home.” Rounds acknowledged that most wars end in treaties, but he said, sometimes, when tyrants have been involved, negotiations have been off the table. “I wish I could say there was an easy way out. There is not,” Rounds said. “And while the vast majority of all wars end with a peace treaty, it didn’t happen in Germany. It didn’t happen in Japan.” “I fear, as much as I would love to say that there is a path towards a peaceful resolution to this by negotiating with this tyrant, I suspect that we may be deceiving ourselves,” Rounds continued. Rounds, an ally of President-elect Trump’s, praised the Biden administration for standing with Ukraine but was critical of the pace at which weapons have been supplied. He noted the U.S. is offering “our treasure, not our blood,” and “Ukraine has offered not just everything they have, and to have this fight on their own homeland, they have offered the blood of their own kids.”

Kremlin Calls Talk of US Giving Ukraine Nuclear Weapons 'Absolutely Irresponsible' - On Tuesday, the Kremlin responded to a recent report from The New York Times that said US and European officials had discussed the idea of giving Ukraine nuclear weapons, calling the talk “absolutely irresponsible.”The report cited anonymous sources and said several officials suggested the idea while they were discussing steps to deter Russia but noted arming Ukraine with nuclear weapons would be “complicated and have serious implications.”Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the idea of sending nukes to Ukraine probably came from a “fringe extremist flank” among Ukraine’s Western backers. He said the talk was “absolutely irresponsible deliberations by people, who probably have a poor understanding… of reality, and who do not feel a shred of responsibility” for potential consequences.The Times report said that President Biden could “return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union.” After the Cold War, Ukraine agreed to transfer Soviet nuclear weapons that were left in its territory to Russia.Some US lawmakers responded to the report, including Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT). “If true this is treasonous. That would’ve caused WWIII if Biden sent nukes to Ukraine,” he wrote on X. “The presidency has too much power if it can unilaterally make a non-emergency decision that’s tantamount to an act of war.” Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) also responded in a post on X, writing, “This is INSANE and completely unconstitutional, possibly an act of treason. This must be stopped immediately!! Is the Biden admin trying to start a nuclear war and use it as the reason to stop the transfer of power to Trump?” The report came amid soaring tensions following the US authorization for Ukraine to launch long-range strikes on Russian territory using US and other Western missiles. Peskov said Russia was concerned that the “outgoing administration in Washington continues to pursue… further escalation.”

Russian State Media: 'How Fast Can Oreshnik Missile Hit US Bases Across The World?' - Russia continues to warn the West over its newly unveiled Oreshnik medium-range hypersonic ballistic missile. The Kremlin days ago touted that Washington has now understood and better been able to grasp Putin's warnings and red lines more clearly after last Thursday's missile strike on a Ukrainian defense industry facility in Dnepropetrovsk. Importantly, the Oreshnik is capable of delivering a nuclear warhead.State media has produced yet another ominous segment showcasing the purported reach of the new hypersonic weapon. The Sputnik segment emphasized that Europe has no protection against such a missile which can reach Mach 11, and it even warned it can reach many US missile bases.The publication wrote, "Check out Sputnik's video to learn how quickly the Oreshnik missiles can reach US bases in the Middle East, in the Pacific and Alaska, as well as the missile silos in the United States." Watch below: Below is some of the information claimed of the Oreshnik missile, featured in the Russian publication.How fast can the Oreshnik missile hit US bases across the world?

1. Middle East Distance and flight time from southern Russia:

• US airbase in Kuwait: 2,100 km, 11 minutes;
• US 5th Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain: 2,500 km, 12 minutes;
• US Air Base in Qatar: 2,650 km, 13 minutes;
• US Air Base in Djibouti: 4,100 km, 20 minutes.

2. Pacific and Alaska Distance and flight time from Kamchatka:

• Air Base in Alaska: 2,400 km, 12 minutes;
• US Air Force and Navy Base in Guam: 4,500 km, 22 minutes;
• US Air Force and Navy Bases in Pearl Harbor: 5,100 km, 25 minutes.

3. Minuteman III missile silos Distance and flight time from Chukotka:

• Minuteman III missile silos in Montana: 4,700 km, 23 minutes;
• Minuteman III missile silos in Minot, North Dakota: 4,900 km, 24 minutes.

Trump's Cabinet Picks Aren't Looking Good For Peace In Ukraine - Caitlin Johnstone - Conventional wisdom about the outgoing Biden administration’s reckless escalations in Ukraine these past few days is that things will cool down once Donald Trump takes office, but Trump’s cabinet picks aren’t really selling this idea.While Trump did campaign on ending the war in Ukraine, the president elect has given multiple cabinet appointments to strategists who say that the way to achieve that peace is to substantially escalate aggressions against Russia.Michael Tracey has been doing a great job compiling footage of Trump’s recent cabinet picks advocating extreme measures which happen to be in perfect alignment with the nuclear brinkmanship of the demented outgoing president and his handlers.Sebastian Gorka, who Trump has named as his next senior director for counterterrorism, is on record saying that Trump has told him he plans on saying to Putin, “You will negotiate now or the aid that we have given to Ukraine thus far will look like peanuts.” Mike Waltz, who Trump has selected as his next national security advisor, promotes a similar vision. Waltz says Russia can be pressured to come to the negotiating table via increased energy sanctions combined with “taking the handcuffs off of the long-range weapons we provided Ukraine.” Biden has since removed those very “handcuffs” by authorizing Kyiv to use US-supplied long-range missiles to attack Russia.If it seems like these remarks from Trump’s incoming administration work very nicely with the actions of the outgoing administration, then you may find it interesting that Waltz just told Fox News Sunday that the two administrations are working “hand in glove” as the presidency changes over.“Jake Sullivan and I have had discussions, we’ve met,” Waltz said. “For our adversaries out there that think this is a time of opportunity, that they can play one administration off the other — they are wrong. We are hand in glove. We are one team with the United States in this transition.”This would seem to be an oblique reference to Russia specifically, since that’s the only US adversary with any hope that the incoming administration might be a bit less hawkish toward it than the outgoing one, and since years of mass media coverage went into spinning narratives about Trump being a pawn of Vladimir Putin. But Trump was never a pawn of Vladimir Putin. Contrary to the narratives of both Democrat-aligned punditry and Republican-aligned punditry while he was in office, Trump spent his entire term ramping up cold war aggressionsagainst Russia which helped pave the way to the war and brinkmanship we are seeing in Ukraine today. Tracey recently shared an audio clip of Gorka on X Spaces back in January 2023 exuberantly boasting about the way Trump ordered the US military to kill hundreds of Russian mercenaries in Syria in 2018. Putin himself cited the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty in 2019 when defending his decision to hit Ukraine with a new type of intermediate-range missile the other day in response to its use of US- and UK-supplied long-range missiles to strike inside Russia.Other cabinet appointments who have taken extremely hawkish positions on Russia include secretary of state nominee Marco Rubio, secretary of defense nominee Pete Hegseth, CIA director nominee John Ratcliffe, and National Security Council appointee Doug Burgum. But it’s those comments from Waltz and Gorka which I find most concerning, because they explicitly refer to escalatory strategies that Trump might employ once he takes office.This all comes out as we get news that US and European officials recently discussed providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine under the gamble that Putin will not escalate against the west before Trump takes office. The more aligned the Trump administration’s posture toward Russia appears to be with that of the Biden administration, the less safe a gamble this appears to be, It seems likely that the Trump administration will end the Ukraine proxy war at some point down the road in order to reallocate those resources toward preparation for war with Iran and/or China. But it is not at all clear that this will happen soon enough before soaring escalations spin out of control into the single worst-case scenario that could possibly unfold on this planet.

This Dystopia Depends On Hiding Inconvenient Truths - Caitlin Johnstone - This civilization is built upon the practice of continuously hiding inconvenient truths out of sight and out of mind. An entire empire held together by compartmentalization and avoidance.Inconvenient truths are hidden from us in many different ways. They are hidden from our minds using propaganda, indoctrination, censorship, algorithm manipulation, and other forms of narrative control used to manipulate the ways we think about our world.Inconvenient truths are also hidden from our physical eyes and ears by the manipulation of material reality. We’re choking the developing world with plastics as we ship the mountains of garbage the west produces off to poorer countries, for example. If nations had to keep the waste they produce and consume within their own borders, western civilization would either force its corporations to stop offloading their costs of industry onto the environment or find itself buried in garbage. We ship our trash away, out of sight and out of mind, to hide the contradictions and abuses that are built into our capitalist society so we can pretend everything’s going fine.Inconvenient truths are being hidden when laws are passed to force the homeless to relocate away from rich neighborhoods and other places where they are not wanted, or force them all into “tent cities” as Donald Trump is saying he wants to do. There are never any plans to give these people homes or solve the underlying problems which create poverty and homelessness; there are only ever plans to hide the symptoms of the injustices and abuses that are woven into the fabric of the civilization we live in.Inconvenient truths are being hidden when we condemn the past use of slavery in our own countries while outsourcing immense amounts of wage slavery to the global south, extracting labor and resources from impoverished nations atextortionate and increasingly unfair rates. The suffering, impoverishment, relentless toil and terrible working conditions of these foreign workers are kept out of sight and out of mind while we gorge ourselves on cheap goods and toss our garbage back in their faces.Inconvenient truths are being hidden by how much more comfortable our rulers are with using violent force in faraway nations compared to here at home. In the western world you might have to worry about being assaulted by a police officer or a SWAT team smashing in your door and killing your dog if you are suspected of selling drugs, but you don’t have to worry about your home being bombed or your children being executed by military snipers while playing in the streets. Because foreign nations are out of sight and out of mind, the managers of the western empire think nothing of raining fire down upon them to promote their strategic interests.We walk around in this perverse dystopia and laugh and joke and act like everything is fine, but everything is not fine. People are suffering and dying at an unimaginable scale because of the systems which allow us to live this way, and if it weren’t for the deceitful way this is always being hidden out of sight and out of mind, we would see this first hand right in front of us. And we would be forced to own it.Western civilization is like a castle on a mountain, and the mountain is made out of human corpses and weeping mothers and starving children, and everyone in the castle pretends that the mountain is not there. It forms the very foundation of everything our society is, but we try not to think about it too hard. It’s not just the propagandists who lie to us. We also lie to ourselves.And it’s always been this way. The well-to-do have always hidden themselves away from the suffering of their subjects. Palaces throughout the ages have been islands of paradise amid oceans of human suffering caused by the monarchs who lived in them. Wealthy neighborhoods are always segregated apart from the lives of the poor whose backs they are built upon.That’s the entire western world right now. That’s what we are. That’s what we’re doing. This is a civilization made of deceitful thoughts, deceitful words, and deceitful deeds. Everything about it is fraudulent.The truth can’t stay hidden forever, though. There’s only so long we can keep this up. Someday we’re not going to be able to keep flailing around looking every direction except at reality, and truth will make itself heard.

Trump Said To Be Weighing Direct Talks With North Korea's Kim - During his first term in the White House, President-elect Donald Trump held three meetings with North Korea's Kim Jong Un. The First was in Hanoi, followed by a highly 'controversial' meeting at the Korean border, which was the first time in history that a sitting American president had stepped foot into the North Korean side of the border. There was talk at the time of the two leaders falling "in love"—however, the past couple years of Biden's Pentagon parking a nuclear submarine at a South Korean port has done much to undo these good will displays. Washington has requested that Pyongyang abandon its nuclear weapons development, while Kim has demanded nothing less than full sanctions relief. "US president-elect Donald Trump’s team is discussing pursuing direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, hoping a fresh diplomatic push can lower the risks of armed conflict, according to two people familiar with the matter," South China Morning Post and Reuters report Tuesday. While Trump's transition team has said nothing official on the issue as yet, insider sources say a return to direct diplomacy is hopeful: Several in Trump’s team now see a direct approach from Trump, to build on a relationship that already exists, as most likely to break the ice with Kim, years after the two traded insults and what Trump called “beautiful” letters in an unprecedented diplomatic effort during his first term in office, the people said. As for the North Korean side, it doesn't seem in any hurry, or at least is building leverage in anticipation of potential near-future Trump overtures. The Wall Street Journal summarized Kim's reaction as of last week as follows: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appeared to rebuff the prospect of reviving his nuclear diplomacy with President-elect Donald Trump, according to his first public remarks about disarmament talks since the election.North Korea’s state media reported Friday that the 40-year-old dictator called the U.S. a superpower that operated by force rather than a will to coexist and belittled the value that previous talks had for his cash-strapped regime.

Pentagon Reveals US Troops Are Deployed To Support Philippines in South China Sea - Last week, the Pentagon revealed that US troops are deployed as part of a task force to support the Philippines in its dispute with China in the South China Sea, a deployment that is a significant provocation toward Beijing.The US Task Force Ayungin is named after the Philippine name for Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef that’s often the site of tense encounters and collisions between Chinese and Philippines vessels.The Philippine military grounded a rusted-out World War II-era ship, the BRP Sierra Madre, on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to assert its claim to the reef and uses it as a base of operations. The encounters between the Chinese and Philippine vessels usually happen when Philippine boats are attempting to resupply the grounded ship.While US military leaders have said they support the idea of helping the Philippines with supplying the BRP Sierra Madre, which could put the US in a direct clash with China, Philippine security officials insisted the US troops in the task force have no “direct participation” in resupply missions.Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin revealed the existence of the task force last week when he visited Palawan, a Philippine island province on the South China Sea. Austin wrote on X that he “met with some American service members deployed to US Task Force Ayungin.” Pentagon spokesman Maj. Pete Nguyen told The Inquirer that the US troops deployed as part of the task force are “providing our Philippines allies with enhanced cooperation and interoperability for their maritime operations.” The Philippines is expected to receive more drone boats (unmanned surface vessels) as part of a $500 million military aid package from the US Austin announced back in July. The $500 million was included in the $95 billion foreign military aid bill President Biden signed into law earlier this year.The increasing US support for the Philippines and its involvement in the maritime dispute between Manila and Beijing has turned the area into a potential flashpoint for a war between the US and China. The US has made clear that the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty applies to attacks on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.

Report: US To Deploy Missiles to Southern Japanese Islands If China Attacks Taiwan - The US military will set up temporary bases to deploy missile units along Japan’s southern islands in the event of a Taiwan contingency, Japan’sKyodo News reported on Sunday.The report said that under the first part of a joint US-Japan operation plan, a new Marine Corps unit designed for island hopping in the Western Pacific, known as the Marine Littoral Regiment, will be deployed with HIMARS rocket systems along the Ryukyu Islands.The Ryukyu Islands, known as the Nansei Islands in Japan, include Okinawa and stretch south toward Taiwan. Japan’s military will support the US Marine deployment along the island chain by providing logistical support, including the supply of fuel and ammunition. The Kyodo report also said the US would “deploy the Multi-Domain Task Force’s long-range fire units in the Philippines.” Earlier this year, the US deployed a new intermediate-range land-based missile system to the Philippines, known as the Typhon, which is capable of firing nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles.The report said the four new bases the US is establishing in the Philippines as part of a military deal signed last year are expected to be used to respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.The US is openly planning for a future war with China over Taiwan despite the obvious risk of nuclear war, and strengthening military ties with the Philippines and Japan is key to those plans.

US Starts Talks on Deal To Ramp Up Troop Deployments to Fiji - The US and Fiji have begun talks on a military pact meant to ramp up US troop deployments to the Pacific island nation as part of the US’s buildup in the region that’s aimed at China. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the plans to negotiate a Status of Forces Agreement while visiting Fiji on Saturday. “The SOFA will enable us to deploy and redeploy forces in support of Fiji and help us train with the Fijians on a very routine basis. I look forward to routine rotations, training rotations — where possible — to be conducted,”Austin said. Austin insisted the idea of establishing “permanent” US bases was not being discussed, although the US has a constant military presence in many countries where it technically doesn’t have a permanent presence. During his visit to Fiji, Austin signed a logistics deal with Fijian officials that the Pentagon said was meant to increase emergency cooperation between the two nations. “The Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreement is aimed at enabling the efficient transfer of fuel and medical supplies and the use of maintenance facilities during emergencies,” the Pentagon said.Austin also announced that the US would be providing about $5 million in military aid to Fiji, which would go toward the purchase of small arms. His trip marked the first time a US secretary of defense visited Fiji.US military officials have been open about the fact that the steps to increase the US’s military footprint in Pacific Island nations are to prepare for a future war with China. Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, the former head of US Pacific Air Forces who is now the commander of Air Combat Command,told Nikkei Asia last year that the purpose was to give China more targets to hit.“Obviously, we would like to disperse in as many places as we can to make the targeting problem for the Chinese as difficult as possible,” Wilsbach said. “A lot of those runways where we would operate from are in the Pacific Island nations.”

Trump to impose tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods - President-elect Trump said Monday that he will impose new tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China through an executive order on the first day of his new term next year.In a series of posts on Truth Social, the president-elect said he would enact tariffs of 25 percent on all Canadian and Mexican goods, and add another 10 percent tariff to all Chinese goods — many of which are already under tariffs imposed by Trump during his first term.Trump said the new tariffs are meant to push all three nations to take stronger efforts to bolster border security and crack down on fentanyl exports to the U.S. “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” Trump posted on Truth Social. Trump pledged during his campaign to impose import taxes of 10 percent to 20 percent on all foreign goods, with tariffs of up to 60 percent on Chinese goods. Canada, Mexico and China are the U.S.’s largest trading partners. Trump’s threat comes days after he announced he would nominate investor Scott Bessent as his Treasury secretary. The selection makes Bessent a key player in implementing Trump trade’s agenda and attempting to keep markets calm amid the expected disruption. The former president rattled financial markets and key U.S. trading partners throughout his first term with his tariff agenda.

Why Trump's Tariffs Underwhelmed The Market, And Why Was Vietnam Excluded - As we reported last night, president-elect Trump announced he intends to levy a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada would remain in place until the flow of “drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop,” while tariffs on China would remain in place “until such time as [the drugs that are pouring into our country] stop”. He also stated that on January 20th he would “sign all necessary documents” to implement the tariffs on Mexico and Canada as one of his “many first Executive Orders”.To be sure, Trump has proposed most of this before, in different forms:

• in May 2019, he announced a tariff that would rise to 25% on imports from Mexico, effective 10 days later, if Mexico did not address immigration, but the tariff was never imposed.
• On Nov. 4, 2024, he also pledged to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico, again related to immigration.
• On Canada, he has announced the intent to renegotiate USMCA but has not formally threatened tariffs, so the announcement is somewhat more surprising.
• On China, the tariffs are notably lower than the 60% he proposed during the campaign but, if imposed, might not be the only tariff on imports from China.

Overall, the announcement is more reminiscent of the first Trump administration, when such tariffs were announced as a negotiating tactic, rather than the more systematic tariff policies (e.g., the 10-20% “universal baseline tariff”) Trump frequently discussed during the campaign. Some more details: 43% of US goods imports come from Mexico (15.4%), Canada (13.6%), and China (13.9%).At the proposed tariff rates, this would generate slightly less than $300bn (or 1.0% of GDP) in tariff revenue annually, without accounting for dynamic effects, such as changes to import volumes and prices or taxable incomes, and boost the US effective tariff rate by 8.6% (Goldman's rule of thumb is that every 1% increase in the effective tariff rate would raise core PCE prices by 0.1%), while the proposed tariff increases would also boost core PCE prices by 0.9% if implemented.In its commentary on the tariff announcement, Goldman political analyst Alex Phillips writes that while he had assumed tariffs on imports from China will rise early next year, it is more likely Mexico and Canada will avoid across-the-board tariffs. Phillips also notes that if implemented, these are about three times as large as the China and auto tariffs the bank assumes in its baseline economic forecasts but slightly smaller than a 10% universal tariff.In a separate note from Goldman Delta One trader Rich Privorotsky (available here for pro subs), he writes that the bigger surprise in the Trump proposal is Canada. To this point, Goldman tried to calibrate the FX impact of tariffs by assessing the importance of US trade for different economies and the complexity of the products they produce: here the Loonie stands out too.

British MP to Trump: Lay Off Tariffs if You Want More Defense Spending— The government’s message to Donald Trump should be to “lay off tariffs” if it wants the U.K. to invest more in defense, according to Liam Byrne, chair of the business and trade committee.The president-elect has demanded that NATO allies spend a greater percentage of their GDP on defense — a demand which Byrne says the U.K. should use as leverage when faced with Trump’s threat of import tariffs of up to 20 percent.“What the U.K. has got to do now is basically construct this grand bargain where we draw closer to our defense allies,” Byrne told the POLITICO Financial Services UK Summit Thursday.“With the United States, the case that we’ve got to win is, look, higher duties means weaker defense. In fact, we’ve just run this calculation this morning. If you implement 20 percent tariffs on the U.K. that basically offsets your increase in defense spending.“So we think that increasing tariffs to 20 percent, that impact on economic growth probably knocks up to 2 billion off defense spending by 2030 because if you’re spending 2.5 percent of GDP and your GDP is smaller, then your defense spend is going to be lower.”“So there’s actually quite a straightforward case to win with President Trump, that if we want stronger defenses then lay off the tariffs.” Economists have warned of a hit to U.K. GDP of up to 2.5 percent if Trump goes through with his threat to impose tariffs on U.K. goods, with billions of pounds worth of trade at risk.

Trump threatens BRICS nations with 100 percent tariff - President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday demanded a group of developing countries commitment to the use of the U.S. dollar as their reserve currency and threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff if they attempt to abandon it.“The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER,” Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social, referring to the acronym for the original croup of countries in the bloc — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The geopolitical alliance has since expanded to include Iran, Eqypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.“We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.”Officials from the BRICS countries have discussed moving away from the U.S. dollar in recent years including at the 2024 BRICS Summit last month. The concept gained steam in 2022 when the U.S. imposed massive economic sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine.Trump also said in his post that the countries “can go find another “sucker!” There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, and any Country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”The statement comes as the president-elect steps up his tariff threats, after he announced plans to impose a 25 percent tariff on Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent additional tariff on China over illegal migration and drug trafficking into the United States.A spokesperson for the Trump transition team did not immediately respond to a request from POLITICO to clarify the total percentage of tariffs planned for China or other BRICS countries.

Homan: ‘I guarantee’ funds will be cut from states not cooperating on deportation --President-elect Trump’s pick for “border czar,” Tom Homan, on Sunday threatened funding for states that refuse to cooperate in the federal government’s deportation plans. Fox News’s Mark Levin, in an interview with Homan aired Sunday, said the border czar will have “a very, very powerful weapon that the Democrats, when they’re in power, use against Republican administrations, state and local, all the time: federal funding.” “If you have a governor who says, ‘I’m not gonna cooperate. … I’m gonna block you,’ well, then, federal funds should be slashed to that state, and I mean hugely so, so the people of that state understand that the governor is the responsible party, that the mayor’s the responsible party,” Levin added. BestReviews is reader-supported and may earn an affiliate commission. Homan agreed with Levin, saying “that’s going to happen, I guarantee you,” adding that the president-elect “will do that.” Trump and Homan have made headlines for their tough talk on the border, including threats to use military assets to help carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Trump transition team spokesperson Karoline Leavitt has also said the president-elect “will marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families.” Some Democratic governors, including Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have promised to stand up to the incoming Trump administration, with Pritzker warning that if someone attempts to “come for my people, you come through me.” Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has said that she “will work with the Trump administration to continue efforts on border security” but “will not tolerate terrorizing communities or threatening Arizonans.” Homan said Sunday that Democrats needed to put aside their feelings about Trump and cooperate. “I’ll say this: President Trump has made it clear, we’re going to prioritize public safety threats and national security threats right out of the gate [because] they pose the most danger to this country. What governor or mayor doesn’t want public safety threats and national security threats out of their neighborhoods, out of their communities?” Homan said Sunday. “That’s their number one responsibility. So you can hate Trump all you want, but you gotta love your community more than you hate President Trump,” he added.

Trump deportation operation could target over 13 million people, including millions of “mixed-status” families Trump and his Vice President-elect, J.D. Vance, have floated the idea of deporting 15-20 million people, with Trump going as high as 22 million. In multiple interviews, Vance has claimed that the administration would aim to deport as many as 1 million people a year, more than double the previous high of over 435,000 deported in 2013 by then-President Barack Obama. Last month, the American Immigration Council (AIC), a pro-immigrant organization, conducted a major study on the devastating social and economic costs of Trump’s proposed “deportation force.” The organization noted, citing Department of Homeland Security statistics, that as of 2022 there were roughly 11 million people in the United States who lacked permanent legal status and faced the possibility of removal. This includes asylum seekers, Dreamers (immigrants brought to the US as children), refugees and those with temporary protected status, such as the roughly 12,000-15,000 Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. The 11 million people living and working in the United States “illegally” include roughly 5 percent of the entire civilian workforce. While there are undocumented persons in every US state, roughly half (47 percent) of the total reside in California, Texas and Florida. A 2016 Pew Research Center survey found that “unauthorized immigrants” accounted for 17 percent of the workforce in the US agriculture industry and 13 percent of the construction industry workforce. That same survey found that among the business and service sectors, which includes legal services, waste management, advertising, landscaping, dry cleaning, nail salons and car washes, non-citizen immigrants comprised 22 percent of the workforce in 2014. AIC found that if the Trump administration were to begin by targeting these immigrants for deportation, some 4 million mixed-status families (families with at least one undocumented person) could be separated. This would affect some 8.5 million US citizens, including 5.1 million US citizen children who currently live with an undocumented family member who, in many cases, is the main source of income. In its study, the AIC noted that immigrants work across US industries, and without their labor US gross domestic product would drop between 4.2 and 6.8 percent. While not eligible for Social Security and other government social programs, in 2022 undocumented households paid $46.8 billion in federal taxes and $29.3 billion in state and local taxes, according to the AIC. Immigrants without legal status also contributed $22.6 billion to Social Security and $5.7 billion to Medicare. The AIC made what it called a “highly conservative estimate” that it would cost “at least $315 billion” to do a “one-time mass deportation operation” aimed at some 13.3 million people who do not have permanent legal status. It emphasized that this figure “does not take into account the long-term costs of a sustained mass deportation operation or the incalculable additional costs necessary to acquire the institutional capacity to remove over 13 million people in a short period of time—incalculable because there is simply no reality in which such a singular operation is possible.” The group noted that to accomplish a police operation on this scale would require “mass detention as an interim step.” And while the US has a sprawling prison-industrial complex that incarcerates roughly 1 out every 185 people in the country, the fifth highest rate in the world, that total population is some 1.9 million people. In other words, the AIC estimated that ICE detention capacity would have to create “24 times more ... detention capacity than currently exists.” It estimated that to deport 1 million people a year, even assuming 20 percent of the population would “self-deport” under a police-state regime, the cost of maintaining the operation until completion would be just under $1 trillion and cost roughly $88 billion a year for over a decade. In addition to the economic factor, there is worry among sections of the ruling class that Trump’s deportation operation will provoke a massive counter-response in the working class. There is no reason to believe that millions of people, including students and workers, will passively sit on their hands as their friends, family and co-workers are handcuffed and frog-marched out of schools, workplaces and homes to be detained and deported.

Trump's immigration plan likely to impact housing - President-elect Donald Trump's hard-lined immigration policies are likely to have implications for housing markets throughout the country, but not necessarily the ones he had in mind. The president-elect had billed his hardline stance on the border and promised deportations as a solution to tight housing markets. Experts say those policies, at least in terms of housing, could do more harm than good.

Trump, Mexican President Give Differing Reviews of 'Wonderful Conversation' on Border, Illegal Immigration — President-elect Donald Trump declared a win on stopping illegal immigration through Mexico on Wednesday after talking with that country's leader. But Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum suggested Mexico was already doing its part and had no interest in closing its borders.The two spoke just days after Trump threatened to impose sweeping new tariffs on Canada and Mexico as part of his effort to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs — a threat that drew a prompt and terse response from Sheinbaum, who said any U.S.tariffs would be met with reciprocal measures from her government — stressing: "There is no subordination here."Sheinbaum said on Thursday she did not discuss tariffs in the call with Trump.Trump said in his social media posts that Sheinbaum had "agreed to stop Migration through Mexico, and into the United States, effectively closing our Southern Border."Sheinbaum indicated on social media, however, that she'd "explained" to Trump that Mexico is already "taking care of" migrant caravans, calling it an "excellent conversation," but indicating no major changes in her government's policies."I explained to him the comprehensive strategy that Mexico has followed to address the migration phenomenon, respecting human rights. Thanks to this, migrants and caravans are assisted before they reach the border," the Mexican leader wrote. "We reiterate that Mexico's position is not to close borders but to build bridges between governments and between peoples."Trump's social media posts about the borders — describing what he called "a wonderful conversation" with Sheinbaum and suggesting Mexico had made concessions in the wake of his tariff threat — did move financial markets.Even if the proposed tariffs fail to materialize, Trump may argue to his supporters that the mere possibility of them is an effective policy tool, and continue to rely on tariff threats.But the only new policy clearly referenced by either leader in their social media posts Wednesday was a vow by Trump to launch a new national ad campaign warning against the dangers of fentanyl use.Sheinbaum had said in her message that she and Trump, "also talked about reinforcing cooperation on security issues, within the framework of our sovereignty, and the campaign we are carrying out to prevent fentanyl consumption."In his third, rapid-fire post on his own Truth Social platform about their conversation, the president-elect said he would be "working on a large scale United States Advertising Campaign, explaining how bad Fentanyl is for people to use — Millions of lives being so needlessly destroyed. By the time the Campaign is over, everyone will know how really bad the horror of this Drug is." President Biden was critical of Trump's plan."I hope he re-thinks it, I think it's a counterproductive thing to do," Mr. Biden told reporters.The president warned against imposing tariffs on North American allies. "We're surrounded by the Pacific Ocean, the Atlantic Ocean, and two allies, Mexico and Canada. The last thing we need to do is begin to screw up those relationships," Mr. Biden said.

Disaster aid push faces partisan divides in Congress --Lawmakers are navigating partisan divides as they seek to pass a bipartisan disaster aid bill by the end of the year. Republicans and Democrats appear to agree on the main issue at hand: the need to replenish funds for communities recovering from disasters. But they disagree on whether to allocate funds toward programs for the Department of Education and the Environmental Protection Agency — creating hurdles for what would otherwise be easily agreed-upon legislation. “It needs to be a very robust package. We understand that. We agree with that,” House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told reporters last week. “Where we have some disagreement at this point is some of the programmatic … adds the administration wants and there’s some things we think they left out that they ought to consider,” he said. Asked what he would like to see in the package, Cole said “more infrastructure, less programmatic money.” However, he added that he hopes lawmakers will be able to come up with bill text by the first week in December, with a package passing by the end of the year. “I think it would be a good way to end this year — is to get out of here with … a disaster relief bill attached to a CR,” he said, referring to a continuing resolution (CR), a stopgap funding measure that would prevent a government shutdown. Major storms in recent months, including hurricanes Helene and Milton, have depleted the nation’s Disaster Relief Fund, which pays for response to and recovery from major disasters. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Deanne Criswell told lawmakers this week that the fund has dwindled to less than $5 billion. That’s down from $11 billion in October. If the fund runs out entirely, the U.S. will still be able to respond to immediate emergencies, but it will not be able to pay for longer-term recovery projects.

Gavin Newsom pledges to intervene if Donald Trump seeks to axe EV tax credit - California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said Monday the state of California will intervene if President-elect Trump eliminates the electric vehicle tax credit passed under President Biden. “Consumers continue to prove the skeptics wrong – zero-emission vehicles are here to stay,” Newsom said in a statement Monday. “We will intervene if the Trump Administration eliminates the federal tax credit, doubling down on our commitment to clean air and green jobs in California.”Under the current law, consumers can receive a tax credit of up to $7,500 for a new electric, plug-in hybrid or fuel cell vehicles and up to $4,000 for a used one. Trump has previously said he hasn’t made up his mind on the tax incentives, which were part of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.“I’m not making any final decisions on it,” Trump said in August. “I’m a big fan of electric cars, but I’m a fan of gasoline-propelled cars, and also hybrids and whatever else happens to come along.” While many Republicans have been highly critical of Biden’s efforts to shift the market toward more electric vehicles, Trump has taken a softer tone since aligning with billionaire and Tesla founder Elon Musk on his re-election campaign.Newsom would need the support of the California Legislature to restart the proposed rebate program that was previously phased out in 2023. The state continues to set clean car standards, with the goal of banning the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035.

Trump gave Interior nominee one directive for a half-billion acres of US land: 'Drill.' | AP News(AP) — Donald Trump assigned Doug Burgum a singular mission in nominating the governor of oil-rich North Dakota to lead an agency that oversees a half-billion acres of federal land and vast areas offshore: “Drill baby drill.”That dictate from the president-elect’s announcement of Burgum for Secretary of Interior sets the stage for a reignition of the court battles over public lands and waters that helped define Trump’s first term, with environmentalists worried about climate change already pledging their opposition.Burgum is an ultra-wealthy software industry entrepreneur who grew up on his family’s farm. He represents a tame choice compared to other Trump Cabinet picks.Public lands experts said his experience as a popular two-term governor who aligns himself with conservationist Teddy Roosevelt suggests a willingness to collaborate, as opposed to dismantling from within the agency he is tasked with leading.That could help smooth his confirmation and clear the way for the incoming administration to move quickly to open more public lands to development and commercial use.“Burgum strikes me as a credible nominee who could do a credible job as Interior secretary,” said John Leshy, who served as Interior’s solicitor under former President Bill Clinton.“He’s not a right-wing radical on public lands,” added Leshy, professor emeritus at the University of California College of the Law, San Francisco.The Interior Department manages about one-fifth of the country’s land with a mandate that spans from wildlife conservation and recreation to natural resource extraction and fulfilling treaty obligations with Native American tribes. Most of those lands are in the West, where frictions with private landowners and state officials are commonplace and have sometimes mushroomed into violent confrontations with right-wing groups that reject federal jurisdiction.Burgum if confirmed would be faced with a pending U.S. Supreme Court action from Utah that seeks to assert state power over Interior Department lands. North Dakota’s attorney general has supported the lawsuit, but Burgum’s office declined to say if he backs Utah’s claims.U.S. Justice Department attorneys on Thursday asked the Supreme Court to reject Utah’s lawsuit. They said Utah in 1894 agreed to give up its right to the lands at issue when it became a state.Trump’s narrow focus on fossil fuels is a replay from his 2016 campaign — although minus coal mining, a collapsing industry that he failed to revive in his first term. Trump repeatedly hailed oil as “liquid gold” on the campaign trail this year and largely omitted any mention of coal.About 26% of U.S. oil comes from federal lands and offshore waters overseen by Interior. Production continues to hit record levels under President Joe Biden despite claims by Trump that the Democrat hindered drilling.

Trump says pick for US Labor Secretary will work toward “historic cooperation between business and labor” On Friday, President-elect Donald Trump nominated Republican Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon for secretary of the US Labor Department. The nomination was immediately hailed by Teamsters President Sean O’Brien, AFL-CIO President Liz Schuler and the leaders of both teacher unions. The nomination was opposed by right-wing news outlets and business groups for running counter, in the words of the Wall Street Journal editorial board, to the president-elect’s supposed “agenda of devolving power to the states, expanding school choice, empowering workers and easing business regulation.” But the selection of Chavez-DeRemer—who combines right-wing politics with support for the institutional and financial interests of the labor bureaucracy—will not interfere with the incoming administration’s program of social counterrevolution. On the contrary, it is aimed at drawing in sections of the union apparatus to suppress the inevitable explosion of working class opposition to the destruction of core social and democratic rights, the deportation of millions of immigrants and the gutting of any restrictions on the exploitation of the working class. If that fails, Trump plans to deploy far more direct methods of state and extra-parliamentary repression against strikes, mass protests and other collective actions by the working class. Chavez-DeRemer is one of only three Republicans in the US House of Representatives to co-sponsor the AFL-CIO-backed Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act. Among other things, the bill would place restrictions on designating workers as contractors and would make it an unfair labor practice for employers to coerce workers to attend anti-union meetings. In a sop to the labor bureaucracy, it would also require all employees covered by a labor agreement to pay unions for the “cost of representation,” regardless of state Right-to-Work laws to the contrary. The Oregon Republican also backed the Public Service Freedom to Negotiate Act, which sets a minimum nationwide standard for the collective bargaining rights of public sector workers. Chavez-DeRemer’s support for the bills was largely symbolic since there was never a chance that they would be adopted by the Senate, regardless of which party was in control. Far from being a champion of workers’ rights, Chavez-DeRemer is a Trump loyalist, who supported his tax cuts for the rich and regularly denounces the “radical left.” A multi-millionaire co-owner, with her husband, of Anesthesia Associates Northwest in Portland, Oregon, she had a net worth of between $3,954,010 and $17,129,998, according to her House Candidate Personal Financial Disclosure, filed on October 15, 2021. After losing her bid for reelection on November 5, Chavez-DeRemer posted on X on November 15 that Trump had a “clear mandate” to “fix our Southern border, reduce crime and restore our economy.” Four days later, she claimed, “President Trump expanded on his Working Class coalition by speaking directly to hardworking Americans. This is a true political realignment. We must continue to be the party of the American Worker, with President Trump leading the way!” To claim that the corporate and financial oligarchs who control the Republican Party speak for the working class is a monumental fraud. Trump only prevailed because of the collapse of support for the Democratic Party, whose indifference to the economic and social concerns of the working class, along with its obsession with identity politics and single-minded focus on expanding US imperialism’s wars for global domination, allowed Trump to exploit popular discontent and win the election.

Trump taps Brooke Rollins as agriculture chief (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump said Saturday that he will nominate former White House aide Brooke Rollins to be his agriculture secretary, the last of his picks to lead executive agencies and another choice from within his established circle of advisers and allies.The nomination must be confirmed by the Senate, which will be controlled by Republicans when Trump takes office Jan. 20, 2025. Rollins would succeed Tom Vilsack, President Joe Biden’s agriculture secretary who oversees the sprawling agency that controls policies, regulations and aid programs related to farming, forestry, ranching, food quality and nutrition.Rollins, an attorney who graduated from Texas A&M University with an undergraduate degree in agricultural development, is a longtime Trump associate who served as White House domestic policy chief during his first presidency. The 52-year-old is president and CEO of the America First Policy Institute, a group helping to lay the groundwork for a second Trump administration. Rollins previously served as an aide to former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and ran a think tank, the Texas Public Policy Foundation. She worked as a litigation attorney in Dallas and also clerked for a federal judge in the Northern District of Texas after earning her law degree from the University of Texas. The pick completes Trump’s selection of the heads of executive branch departments, just two and a half weeks after the former president won the White House once again. Several other picks that are traditionally Cabinet-level remain, including U.S. Trade Representative and head of the small business administration. Trump didn’t offer many specifics about his agriculture policies during the campaign, but farmers could be affected if he carries out his pledge to impose widespread tariffs. During the first Trump administration, countries like China responded to Trump’s tariffs by imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports like the corn and soybeans routinely sold overseas. Trump countered by offering massive multibillion-dollar aid to farmers to help them weather the trade war.

Klobuchar says Trump nominees 'have got to get their background checks together' -Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) said Sunday that President-elect Trump’s picks for his next administration have “got to get their background checks together.” Earlier in an interview, Klobuchar told ABC News’s Jonathan Karl that as a Senate Judiciary Committee member, she and her colleagues on the panel have a role “to look at the FBI background check and is to ask them questions to make sure they’re fulfilling the mission of the department” for Cabinet picks.“In this case, I am concerned with all these nominees … if we do not have an agreement for FBI background checks,” Klobuchar added in her “This Week” appearance. “As far as I know, the transition committee has not made that agreement yet.”Some Trump advisers have proposed that the president-elect should move the task of conducting background checks on high-level nominees from the FBI to private investigators.“They’ve gotta get their background checks together,” Klobuchar said of Trump’s team. “They’ve gotta get qualified nominees, and then we’re interested in doing the work of the American people.” Some GOP Senators have been pushing back against the Trump advisers’ proposal to not have the background checks conducted by the FBI. “The FBI should do the background checks, in my judgement,” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) previously said.Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) has also previously said the FBI’s access when it comes to information gathered by law enforcement on local, state and federal levels is better than that of private firms. “If you wanted to supplement it with a private firm, I’d say OK. But the FBI does have access to information that probably a private firm wouldn’t have, even a really good savvy one,” he said. Klobuchar said in her “This Week” appearance she wishes the Trump team “will put in qualified nominees and we will get these background checks and we will move forward and we will not have brouhahas over people like Matt Gaetz that shouldn’t have been nominated in the first place.”

Republicans push back against Democrats’ claims that Trump intelligence pick Gabbard is compromised(AP) — Republican senators pushed back on Sunday against criticism from Democrats that Tulsi Gabbard, Donald Trump’s pick to lead U.S. intelligence services, is “compromised” by her comments supportive of Russia and secret meetings, as a congresswoman, with Syria’s president, a close ally of the Kremlin and Iran. Sen. Tammy Duckworth, an Illinois Democrat and veteran of combat missions in Iraq, said she had concerns about Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s choice to be director of national intelligence. “I think she’s compromised,” Duckworth said on CNN’s “State of the Union,” citing Gabbard’s 2017 trip to Syria, where she held talks with Syrian President Bashar Assad. Gabbard was a Democratic House member from Hawaii at the time. “The U.S. intelligence community has identified her as having troubling relationships with America’s foes. And so my worry is that she couldn’t pass a background check,” Duckworth said. Gabbard, who said last month she is joining the Republican Party, has served in the Army National Guard for more than two decades. She was deployed to Iraq and Kuwait and, according to the Hawaii National Guard, received a Combat Medical Badge in 2005 for “participation in combat operations under enemy hostile fire in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom III.” “For her to say ridiculous and outright dangerous words like that is wrong,” Sen. Markwayne Mullin, a Republican from Oklahoma, said on CNN, challenging Duckworth to retract her words. “That’s the most dangerous thing she could say — is that a United States lieutenant colonel in the United States Army is compromised and is an asset of Russia.” In recent days, other Democrats have accused Gabbard without evidence of being a “Russian asset.” Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, has claimed, without offering details, that Gabbard is in Russian President Vladimir “Putin’s pocket.” Mullin and others say the criticism from Democrats is rooted in the fact that Gabbard left their party and has become a Trump ally. Democrats say they worry that Gabbard’s selection as national intelligence chief endangers ties with allies and gives Russia a win. Rep. Adam Schiff, a California Democrat just elected to the Senate, said he would not describe Gabbard as a Russian asset, but said she had “very questionable judgment.” “The problem is if our foreign allies don’t trust the head of our intelligence agencies, they’ll stop sharing information with us,” Schiff said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.” Gabbard in 2022 endorsed one of Russia’s justifications for invading Ukraine: the existence of dozens of U.S.-funded biolabs working on some of the world’s nastiest pathogens.. The labs are part of an international effort to control outbreaks and stop bioweapons, but Moscow claimed Ukraine was using them to create deadly bioweapons. Gabbard said she just voiced concerns about protecting the labs. Gabbard also has suggested that Russia had legitimate security concerns in deciding to invade Ukraine, given its desire to join NATO. Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt of Missouri said he thought it was “totally ridiculous” that Gabbard was being cast as a Russian asset for having different political views. “It’s insulting. It’s a slur, quite frankly. There’s no evidence that she’s a asset of another country,” he said on NBC. Sen. James Lankford, another Oklahoma Republican, acknowledged having “lots of questions” for Gabbard as the Senate considers her nomination to lead the intelligence services. Lankford said on NBC that he wants to ask Gabbard about her meeting with Assad and some of her past comments about Russia. “We want to know what the purpose was and what the direction for that was. As a member of Congress, we want to get a chance to talk about past comments that she’s made and get them into full context,” Lankford said.

Trump transition signs White House agreement -The Trump transition has signed a memorandum of understanding with the Biden White House, incoming chief of staff Susie Wiles announced on Tuesday — a move that clears the way for coordination with the federal agencies they will soon take over. The Trump team’s unprecedented delay in signing these agreements, weeks after being declared the winner of the election, had alarmed former officials and ethics experts who warned it could lead to conflicts of interest and leave the new government unprepared to govern on Day One. In the Tuesday announcement, Wiles suggested the Trump transition will not sign a separate agreement with the General Services Administration, which would have allowed them to receive federal funding, cybersecurity support and government office space, pledging instead to fund the transition with private dollars, run it out of private facilities, and deploy their own “existing security and information protections” for sensitive data. The transition, Wiles said, “will operate as a self-sufficient organization, adding that declining government funding will “save taxpayers’ hard-earned money.” And while Wiles also pledged in the Tuesday statement to publicly disclose the private donors to the transition and “not accept foreign donations,” there will be no legal mechanism to enforce those promises of transparency. The lack of federal cybersecurity support could also make the Trump transition a softer target for foreign hackers — who already successfully penetrated the campaign earlier this year. “That’s something that in 2020 was maybe the single most important worry of the [Biden] transition team — that they would be hacked, and all of this information, including intelligence information, personal information about job applicants, would be threatened,” said Heath Brown, an associate professor of public policy at CUNY’s John Jay College who wrote a book about Biden’s transition. “It’s imperative that the Trump Transition Team has installed the proper procedures to protect itself.” White House spokesperson Saloni Sharma said the Biden administration is concerned about the ramifications of their successors forgoing GSA support, but remains “committed to an orderly transition.” “While we do not agree with the Trump transition team’s decision to forgo signing the GSA MOU, we will follow the purpose of the Presidential Transition Act which clearly states that ‘any disruption occasioned by the transfer of the executive power could produce results detrimental to the safety and wellbeing of the United States and its people,’” she said.

Trump fills out his economic team with two veterans of his first administration (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump is turning to two officials with experience navigating not only Washington but the key issues of income taxes and tariffs as he fills out his economic team. Trump on Tuesday announced he has chosen international trade attorney Jamieson Greer to be his U.S. trade representative and Kevin Hassett as director of the White House National Economic Council. While Trump has in several cases nominated outsiders to key posts, these picks reflect a recognition that his reputation will likely hinge on restoring the public’s confidence in the economy. The president-elect also announced a number of other key personnel choices, including Vince Haley, who led Trump’s speechwriting department in his first term, as director of the Domestic Policy Council. Trump said in a statement that Greer was instrumental in his first term in imposing tariffs on China and others and replacing the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, “therefore making it much better for American Workers.” Greer previously served as chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer, Trump’s former trade representative who is deeply skeptical of free trade. Greer is currently a partner at the King & Spalding law firm in Washington. He was not immediately available for comment. If confirmed as trade representative, Greer would be responsible for negotiating directly with foreign governments on trade deals and disputes, as well as memberships in international trade bodies such as the World Trade Organization.

Trump picks Lighthizer acolyte to be his trade chief - President-elect Donald Trump picked Jamieson Greer to be U.S. trade representative, elevating a figure little known outside of Washington to what is expected to be one of the most important posts in the incoming administration. Greer, a former Air Force lawyer turned trade litigator, is a protegé of Robert Lighthizer, who was Trump’s trade representative in his first administration and is expected to influence trade policy in Trump’s second term. “Jamieson will focus the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on reining in the Country’s massive Trade Deficit, defending American Manufacturing, Agriculture and Services and opening up Export Markets everywhere,” Trump said in a statement posted on Truth Social. If confirmed by the Senate, Greer, 44, will be on the front line of Trump’s threat to impose a baseline tariff of up to 20 percent on all $3 trillion worth of U.S. exports and a separate 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods. Just this week, Trump announced he would issue an executive order to impose a 25 percent tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada to pressure those countries to stop illegal migration across the Southern and Northern U.S. border. He announced plans to impose an additional 10 percent duty on Chinese goods to pressure Beijing to stop fentanyl shipments to the U.S. Those announcements highlight the potential for trade to overlap with other issues during the second Trump administration, making the job of USTR even more challenging.

Trump picks NIH critic Jay Bhattacharya to lead the agency - President-elect Donald Trump has chosen Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University physician and economist known for his controversial views during the Covid-19 pandemic, as director of the National Institutes of Health.Bhattacharya, 56, has advocated for a major shakeup of the agency and accused former NIH leaders Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci of suppressing scientific debate and research during the pandemic.“The rot, having accumulated over decades, was plain for all to see,” Bhattacharya wrote earlier this month on the British news and opinion site UnHerd, in an endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s pick for health and human services secretary.Health officials failed the public during the pandemic by supporting lockdowns, school closures and mandates, Bhattacharya wrote, adding, “Yet the officials continue to deny their own culpability, avoiding a long look in the mirror.”“Jay and RFK Jr. will restore the NIH to a Gold Standard of Medical Research as they examine the underlying causes of, and solutions to, America’s biggest Health challenges, including our Crisis of Chronic Illness and Disease,” Trump said in a statement announcing his choice.In a post to X, Bhattacharya said he was “honored and humbled by President @realDonaldTrump’s nomination of me to be the next @NIH director.”Bhattacharya said he’d work to “reform American scientific institutions so that they are worthy of trust again and will deploy the fruits of excellent science to make America healthy again!,” echoing one of Kennedy’s themes. Kennedy called the Bhattacharya appointment “spectacular” in a post to X.

Trump nominates vicious opponent of public health Jay Bhattacharya to head the NIH President-elect Donald Trump nominated the reactionary opponent of public health Jay Bhattacharya as director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) on Wednesday. The position reports to the Secretary of Health and Human Services, for which Trump nominated the anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. two weeks ago. The NIH is the federal government’s largest research agency, with a budget of $47 billion. Bhattacharya’s appointment is a clear signal that the ruling class aims to demolish the last remnants of public health still standing after five years of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Bhattacharya, an economist and professor of health policy at Stanford University, is a notorious promulgator of pseudoscientific positions on the COVID-19 pandemic. He is best known as the co-author of the Great Barrington Declaration (GBD), which the World Socialist Web Site aptly characterized as a “manifesto of death” when it was published in October 2020. Bhattacharya and RFK Jr. are bookends in a string of Trump nominations of fringe anti-science hacks to head America’s top public health agencies, which were once the world’s preeminent such institutions. Each one of these nominations has been made not in spite of, but because of their hostility to public health and social services. After RFK Jr., Trump nominated mega-millionaire television personality Dr. Mehmet Oz to head the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Oz is famous for promoting herbs and supplements that do not provide the health benefits he claims. Last Friday, Trump nominated three political allies with dubious experience and pseudo-scientific track records to other major health agencies. They include former Florida Representative Dave Weldon as administrator of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Marty Makary as commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and Fox News television doctor Janette Nesheiwat as surgeon general. All three have spread vaccine misinformation and opposed gender-affirming care for transgender individuals. But no one has spread as much pandemic misinformation as RFK Jr. and Bhattacharya. In a 2021 report published by the Center for Countering Digital Hate, RFK Jr. was listed among the “Disinformation Dozen,” 12 individuals who collectively bore responsibility for roughly 65 percent of all anti-vaccine disinformation on social media. Bhattacharya’s GBD promulgated the antiscientific notion of “herd immunity” in service of the profits of Wall Street. The NIH director at the time, Francis Collins, wrote in an email that the authors of the GBD were “fringe,” and the NIH should move quickly to publish a fact-based response to debunk it. The GBD was also widely denounced by numerous public health experts and scientists. Recently, Bhattacharya doubled down on “herd immunity” in an attack on the World Socialist Web Site. He claimed that Sweden’s early lifting of lockdowns resulted in better outcomes than Norway, where strict lockdowns were in place far longer. The WSWS thoroughly debunked this claim, showing that Norway had far fewer deaths per capita up to the point where it lifted lockdowns and also adopted “herd immunity.”Bhattacharya holds numerous other fringe pseudo-scientific positions on the pandemic. He has advocated for ending COVID-19 vaccine mandates, opening schools prematurely and lifting mask mandates. He also promoted the Wuhan Lab conspiracy theory of the origins of the pandemic.Bhattacharya even opposed vaccinating children against COVID-19, saying “children just don’t die at very high rates.” This is despite the fact that over 1,900 children have died from COVID-19 in the US alone, per official data. This number is certainly an undercount, with the real toll likely over 5,000. Worldwide, as of December 2023, over 17,000 children were officially killed by COVID-19, a figure that is undoubtedly far higher.

Trump turns to outsider to shake up Navy, but his lack of military experience raises concerns - President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to be secretary of the Navy, John Phelan, has not served in the military or had a civilian leadership role in the service.(AP) — President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to be secretary of the Navy, John Phelan, has not served in the military or had a civilian leadership role in the service. While officials and defense experts said the Navy is in sore need of a disruptor, they cautioned that Phelan’s lack of experience could make it more difficult for him to realize Trump’s goals.Trump late Tuesday nominated Phelan, a major donor to his campaign who founded the private investment firm Rugger Management LLC. The Trump transition team did not respond to a request for comment on his qualifications. According to his biography, Phelan’s primary exposure to the military comes from an advisory position he holds on the Spirit of America, a non-profit that supports the defense of Ukraine and the defense of Taiwan. Not all service secretaries come into the office with prior military experience, but he’d be the first in the Navy since 2006. Current Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth similarly does not have prior military service. She, however, has spent her career in a host of defense civilian positions.The appointment comes at a critical moment for the Navy, which has been stretched thin with deployments around the world and must contend with a shrinking fleet even as the naval forces of its main rival, China, are growing. Trump has campaigned on expanding the Navy and would need to fight bureaucratic inertia to do so. But it’s uncertain whether a secretary with no military experience — either in uniform or as a defense civilian — would be well-positioned to lead that effort. “It will be difficult for anyone without experience in the Pentagon to take over the leadership of a service and do a good job,” said Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security. “Services are sprawling organizations with distinct cultures, subcultures and bureaucratic interests, and where decisions are made through many formal processes. To change a service’s plans, one must understand this Byzantine landscape.” Experts said Phelan’s nomination reflects that Trump is seeking service branch heads who will not push back on his ideas — but that Phelan’s lack of experience is likely to create issues and delays of its own, They say the Navy can’t afford to lose time. One of the Navy’s biggest challenges is preparing for a potential military confrontation with China over Taiwan, a self-ruled island that China claims as its own.”The stakes are high,” said Brad Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “The success or failure in addressing key problems in the U.S. Navy over the next couple years may have a decisive effect on war and peace in the Taiwan Strait and elsewhere.”

Trump selects Charles Kushner as ambassador to France - President-elect Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he has chosen New York real estate developer Charles Kushner to be his Ambassador to France, calling him “a tremendous business leader, philanthropist, & dealmaker” in a social media post.“Congratulations to Charlie, his wonderful wife Seryl, their 4 children, & 14 grandchildren,” Trump wrote. “His son, Jared, worked closely with me in the White House, in particular on Operation Warp Speed, Criminal Justice Reform, & the Abraham Accords. Together, we will strengthen America’s partnership with France, our oldest Ally, & one of our greatest! All U.S. ambassador nominees must be confirmed by the Senate. If confirmed, Kushner would take over the role from Denise Campbell Bauer.The 70-year-old business mogul is the founder of private real estate firm Kushner Companies and was also an attorney. His son Jared Kushner is married to Trump’s daughter Ivanka and was a senior adviser to Trump during his first term. In 2005, the elder Kushner was convicted by a federal jury of making illegal campaign contributions, tax evasion and witness tampering. Former New Jersey governor and federal prosecutor Chris Christie brought the charges against Kushner, calling it “one of the most loathsome, disgusting crimes” he ever prosecuted. Kushner served two years in prison before returning to his real estate business.

Trump may rely on acting secretaries if nominees fail to muster GOP support --President-elect Trump may need to rely on acting secretaries to fill out his Cabinet as a number of key nominations draw significant concern from key GOP senators.When Senate confirmations are in limbo, especially if there is pushback from lawmakers, presidents can slip nominees into acting roles for at least 210 days. Trump did so across more than 20 Cabinet-level jobs in his first term.Trump’s picks like Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary, Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., for Health and Human Services secretary, among others, are sure to face some opposition from Senate Republicans.Hegseth, Kennedy, and Linda McMahon, the president-elect’s pick for Education secretary, all are expected to field questions from senators over allegations of sexual misconduct or enabling sexual abuse. Trump’s original pick for attorney general, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), dropped out of the confirmation process just over a week after being named amid allegations of having sex with minors, which he has denied. Senators will question other nominees, like Gabbard, over if they’re qualified for the role or have any conflicts of interests. By February 2020, acting secretaries under the Trump administration served a total of 2,736 combined days, across 22 Cabinet-level jobs, according to a Washington Post analysis.During his first four years in office, Trump had acting officials serve more than three times as much as former President Obama had during his eight years in office. Under Obama, there were 2,202 combined days in which acting officials served.“I could foresee a situation where he definitely does that, given that he has a record of doing it.” one former Trump administration official said. “I mean, Chad Wolf was there for how long?”The official was referring to Wolf’s extended stint as acting secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, which lasted 14 months. Some lawmakers pointed in his direction as a prime example of why they are worried at the prospect of acting officials taking the helm of some departments and agencies because Wolf was unable to carry out parts of Trump’s immigration plans. A federal judge in late 2020 invalidated his decision to limit work permits via the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program for migrants illegally brought to the U.S. when they were children because Wolf did not have the legal authority to make such a move as acting secretary, rather than being confirmed by the Senate. “Always a concern for that now,” one Senate Republican told The Hill. “Biden had several acting, [and] acting cannot make some decisions.”

Jack Smith's moves to dismiss Donald Trump's election interference case - Special counsel Jack Smith moved to dismiss both his election interference case and classified documents case against President-elect Trump, citing Department of Justice (DOJ) policy against prosecuting a sitting president. “After careful consideration, the Department has determined that OLC’s prior opinions concerning the Constitution’s prohibition on federal indictment and prosecution of a sitting President apply to this situation and that as a result this prosecution must be dismissed before the defendant is inaugurated,” Smith’s team wrote in the Jan. 6 case, referencing the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel. “That prohibition is categorical and does not turn on the gravity of the crimes charged, the strength of the Government’s proof, or the merits of the prosecution, which the Government stands fully behind.” The motion for the election interference case was approved by Judge Tanya Chutkan, bringing to a close the prosecutorial effort to hold Trump accountable for seeking to thwart the peaceful transfer of power that culminated with his supporters storming the Capitol. In Trump’s Florida documents case, where he is facing charges for violating the Espionage Act and obstruction of justice, Smith also moved to dismiss an appeal to a motion tossing the case — a move that would likewise end that prosecution. The filing notes, however, that the Justice Department will still be pursuing charges against Trump’s two co-defendants in the case, noting that Trump valet Walt Nauta and Mar-a-Lago property manager Carlos De Oliveira have no immunity. That leaves developments in the case for those two men in the hands of the coming Trump Justice Department. Still, Trump is planning a massive shift at the Justice Department and reportedly plans to fire all prosecutors who have worked on either case. He has also appointed several members of his criminal defense team to top positions at the department. Smith likewise moved to dismiss both cases “without prejudice,” leaving the door open to potential future charges. Prosecutors down the line could seek to argue that the statute of limitations for charges related to those crimes should essentially be on hold while Trump is in office and unable to be charged. “The American People re-elected President Trump with an overwhelming mandate to Make America Great Again. Today’s decision by the DOJ ends the unconstitutional federal cases against President Trump, and is a major victory for the rule of law. The American People and President Trump want an immediate end to the political weaponization of our justice system and we look forward to uniting our country,” Steven Cheung, Trump’s communications director, said in a statement. Smith is planning to resign from the Justice Department ahead of Trump’s Inauguration, after which the president-elect said he plans to fire him “within two seconds. ”But he could still write a report that summarizes his findings, something Attorney General Merrick Garland would need to approve but that would nonetheless offer a public accounting of the case. The OLC determined in a 1973 memo that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted. The Supreme Court recently expanded that philosophy, ruling over the summer as Trump challenged the case that former presidents also maintain broad immunity.

Chutkan dismisses Trump's election subversion case - President-elect Trump’s criminal indictment accusing him of conspiring to subvert the 2020 election results is no more. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan on Monday swiftly granted special counsel Jack Smith’smotion to dismiss the case following Trump’s election victory. “The court will therefore grant the Government leave to dismiss this case,” Chutkan wrote. She dismissed it without prejudice, leaving open a theoretical possibility that the government can bring charges again after Trump leaves office. But the two-page opinion officially marks the end of the historic indictment brought last year, which charged Trump with four felonies over his efforts to overturn his election loss to President Biden that culminated in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack. Earlier in the day, Smith moved to drop both of his criminal cases against Trump in alignment with a Justice Department policy against prosecuting a sitting president. “After careful consideration, the Department has determined that OLC’s prior opinions concerning the Constitution’s prohibition on federal indictment and prosecution of a sitting President apply to this situation and that as a result this prosecution must be dismissed before the defendant is inaugurated,” Smith wrote, referencing the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel. Smith has similarly asked to drop his appeal seeking to revive Trump’s criminal charges in Florida, where the former president stands accused of mishandling classified documents and obstructing the government’s efforts to retrieve them. The 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has not yet approved the dismissal but is expected to do so. The court’s procedures enable the clerk to sign off without requiring any judge’s approval.

Ohio's Sherrod Brown won't rule out running for Senate again - Sen. Sherrod Brown, who was defeated Nov. 5 in his reelection bid, said he won’t rule out running for the Senate again or for governor of Ohio in 2026.Speaking in an interview that aired Sunday on CNN’s “Inside Politics With Manu Raju,” the Ohio Democrat said, “I’m not dismissing anything at this point.”Brown was defeated by Republican Bernie Moreno, losing 50 percent to 46 percent. Brown, who was seeking his fourth term in the Senate, ran better than Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who lost to President-elect Donald Trump by 11 percentage points in Ohio.Ohio will have a special Senate race in 2026 after Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, fills the pending vacancy created by Sen. JD Vance ascending to the vice presidency. There will also be a gubernatorial election in Ohio that year, with the term-limited DeWine unable to seek another term. (Oddly enough, Brown won his Senate seat in 2006 by defeating DeWine.)The next Senate will have a 53-47 Republican advantage. Brown noted that in only three states will be there be a split Senate delegation (Maine, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), with all the others being either one party or the other.Brown told Raju people are “more and more willing to vote a party line,” then added: “That’s troubling, but it’s people’s decisions.”

How America's Accurate Election Polls Were Covered Up -John McIntyre couldn’t believe it. The publisher of the Real Clear Polling National Average, America’s first presidential poll aggregator, woke on October 31st to see his product denounced in the New York Times. Launched in 2002 and long a mainstay of campaign writers and news consumers alike, the RCP average, he learned, was part of a “torrent” of partisan rubbish being “weaponized” to “deflate Democrats’ enthusiasm” and “undermine faith in the entire system.”“They actually wrote that our problem was we didn’t weight results,” says an incredulous McIntyre. “That we didn’t put a thumb on the scale.”The Times ended its screed against RCP’s “scarlet-dominated” electoral map projection by quoting John Anzalone, Joe Biden’s former chief pollster, who said: “There’s a ton of garbage polls out there.” But being called “garbage” in America’s paper of record was nothing compared to what happened to RCP at Wikipedia.Six months ago, when former Wikipedia chief Katherine Maher became CEO of NPR, video emerged of her talking about strategies at Wikipedia. She said the company eventually abandoned its “free and open” mantra when she realized “this radical openness… did not end up living into the intentionality of what openness can be.” Free and open “recapitulated” too many of the same “power structures,” resulting in too much emphasis on the “Western canon,” the “written tradition,” and “this white male, Westernized construct around who matters.”In the context of poll averages, it seems even a track record of accuracy did not “end up living into the intentionality of what openness can be.” The ostensibly crowdsourced online encyclopedia kept a high-profile page, “Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election,” which showed an EZ-access chart with results from all the major aggregators, from 270toWin to Silver’s old 538 site to Silver’s new “Silver Bulletin.”Every major aggregate, that is, but RCP. McIntyre’s site was removed on October 11th, after Wikipedia editors decided it had a “strong Republican bias” that made it “suspect,” even though it didn’t conduct any polls itself, merely listing surveys and averaging them. One editor snootily insisted, “Pollsters should have a pretty spotless reputation. I say leave them out.” After last week’s election, when RCP for the third presidential cycle in a row proved among the most accurate of the averages, Wikipedia quietly restored RCP. “They just whitewashed us away three weeks before the election because we were a point or a point and a half more favorable to Trump, which as it turns out still underestimated him,” McIntyre said.What happened in 2024 to RCP is emblematic of wider failures in data journalism, which has now turned in three straight cycles of obscene misses. Although problems in polling have been lavishly, even excessively covered, failures are inevitably presented as a Scooby-Doo whodunit, rooted in a magic invisibility power apparently unique to Trump voters. “If Trump outperforms the polls once again,” the Atlantic concluded this August, “something about his supporters remains a mystery.”But it’s no mystery. The polling problem in America looks like good-old-fashioned lying, mixed with dollops of censorship and manipulation:Start with a basic fact: major aggregators like 270toWin, Silver Bulletin, 538, and the Cook Political Report, while useful, are not the uncomplicated averages many customers imagine them to be. “A poll average is simple,” says McIntyre. “You add polls up, and you divide by the number.”But the “reputable” or “nonpartisan” averages are different. “Those are really models, but they don’t call them that,” McIntyre says. “The New York Times had an average and the Washington Post had one, but they’re not really averages. They’re more like, ‘This is where we want to say the race is.’”Most “averages” or “aggregates” have pages that explain how they weight results, though the exact recipe is usually a mystery. The Times in September explained in a general way how it weights pollsters. To an unspecified degree it favors track records of “unbiased and accurate results” (note the term “accurate” isn’t by itself). It also upgrades for “professionalism,” which to the Times among other things means an average that “contributes microdata” to Cornell’s Roper Center or is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. The real devil is in this detail:

Did Libertarians spoil the GOP’s chances of a bigger House majority? - Republicans are blaming third-party candidates for costing them a bigger House majority — potentially cutting their slim margin of control in half or more.And two small super PACs that unleashed a flurry of spending in the final weeks of the election could shoulder a lot of the blame.One of them, Voter Protection Project, explicitly describes itself as opposing Republicans. The other, dubbed Save Western Culture, was formed in mid-October, and its provenance and funding remains a closely held secret. Together they spent $840,000 to boost Libertarian candidates in three races that Republicans narrowly lost in Ohio, North Carolina and Oregon.Republicans have won 219 seats so far, giving them at least a two-seat majority, with three races not yet called. A win in three extra seats would have given the GOP crucial padding to pass key legislative priorities next year. And while it’s impossible to know how many Libertarian votes would have gone to Republicans, the close margins have led some in the GOP to believe third-party candidates may have spoiled those key races:

• — Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur won her red-leaning northwestern Ohio district by getting just 1,193 votes more than Republican Derek Merrin. Tom Pruss, the Libertarian candidate, pulled 14,799 votes. Voter Protection Project spent $423,263 on digital ads and mailers to boost Pruss beginning on Oct. 21.
• — In eastern North Carolina, Rep. Don Davis, a freshman Democrat, beat Republican Laurie Buckout by 6,303 votes. Libertarian Tom Bailey won 9,949 votes. Save Western Culture spent $46,348 on digital advertising and mailers to aid Bailey.
• — In Oregon, Democrat Janelle Bynum ousted GOP Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer by 9,475 votes. Libertarian Sonja Feintech pulled 6,033 and independent Brett Smith received 18,233 votes. Voter Protection Project and Save Western Culture spent a collective $371,340 on digital ads and mailers to boost Feintech.

Dan Conston, president of the Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest House GOP super PAC, singled out all three races in a post-election donor memo. CLF was able to bring down Democrats’ images in those races, he wrote “Only for Third-party Candidates to Cost Us Seats.”Libertarians are traditionally more likely to pull from the Republican candidate but that doesn’t mean those voters would always choose the Republican if the Libertarian wasn’t on the ballot. They may have backed the Democrat or not voted at all. But in a tight race, every vote counts. Democrats have sometimes fought to help Libertarians get on the ballot and to block Green Party candidates — and vice versa for Republicans.Voter Protection Project, which was founded by Andrew Janz, a former Democratic congressional candidate, spent in other states, including California and Montana. It was also active in previous cycles.Save Western Culture is far more elusive. The address listed on its Federal Election Commission filing is a UPS store. The group spent in some 20 races this cycle using two vendors that have never appeared before in FEC records. Republicans suspect Democratic involvement — the group sent a robocallhitting former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan from the right — but nothing from its federal filings or vendors can link it to Democrats.Both groups will have to disclose the sources of their large-dollar funding on Dec. 5, which could shed light on their motives.Those two groups are not the only ones to boost third-party candidates this cycle. A Democrat-linked group boosted a Constitution Party candidaterunning in Pennsylvania’s Senate race. And so did Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey himself, but he ultimately lost his seat to Republican Dave McCormick.The maneuver works both ways. Some Democrats believe a Green Party candidate cost them a chance to oust GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani in Tucson, Arizona, but ultimately his margin of victory was just slightly more than the votes the Green Party nominee received.

Judge schedules trial in Meta antitrust case - The Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) antitrust case against Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, will head to trial on April 14. U.S. District Judge James Boasberg scheduled a bench trial, meaning the case will not go before a jury and the judge will decide the outcome of the trial. The case had been poised to move forward since Boasberg denied Meta’s request for summary judgement earlier this month. The FTC sued Meta in 2020, accusing the social media giant of maintaining an illegal monopoly over personal social networking with its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. The case was initially dismissed in 2021, but the judge allowed the FTC to file an amended complaint. In April, Meta asked Boasberg to rule in its favor, arguing that the agency had failed to show its acquisitions hurt consumers. However, Boasberg ruled in mid-November that the case “must go to trial.” “In the end, while the parties’ legal jousting is both impressive and comprehensive, it leaves no clear victor,” he wrote. “Under the forgiving summary-judgment standard, the FTC has put forward evidence sufficient for a reasonable factfinder to rule in its favor.” The Meta case, which was first launched under then-President Trump, will head to trial just months after Trump takes office once again. The case was one of several lawsuits filed against large tech firms, including Google, Amazon and Apple, across both the Trump and Biden administrations. As Trump fills in his Cabinet, it remains to be seen whom he will select for key roles that could impact his administration’s approach to antitrust, most notably the FTC chair and the head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division.

Google's second antitrust trial concludes in ad tech case - The Department of Justice (DOJ) and Google wrapped up the tech giant’s second antitrust trial in two years Monday, as the company seeks to fend off monopoly allegations in the advertising technology space. After a relatively brief two-week trial in September, the two sides reconvened in U.S. District Judge Leonie Brinkema’s Alexandria, Va., courtroom for closing arguments, offering competing visions of how ad tech functions and Google’s role. “This case is about two different versions of reality,” DOJ lawyer Julia Tarver Wood said. The lawsuit, which was originally filed in 2023, centers on the tools used by website publishers and advertisers to sell and buy ad space online. The DOJ identified three different markets — one for publishers to sell their ad space, one for advertisers to buy and place ads and one connecting publishers and advertisers. The agency argues that Google has a monopoly over all three markets. “Google is once, twice, three times a monopolist,” DOJ lawyer Aaron Teitelbaum said Monday. The government alleges that the tech giant achieved its dominant position by eliminating competitors through acquisitions, and then using this dominance to force more publishers and advertisers to use its services. Google, on the other hand, argues that there is one, two-sided market between publishers and advertisers that extends well beyond online ads to include ads on apps, social media and connected television. Within this market, the tech giant says it faces stiff competition from the likes of Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and TikTok. To side against Google would mean overturning Supreme Court precedent, Google lawyer Karen Dunn said. She argued that the DOJ is attempting to make Google deal with its rivals, which would be at odds with the 2004 Supreme Court decision in Verizon v. Trinko. She also pointed to the 2018 decision in Ohio v. American Express, in which the court ruled that the credit card industry consisted of a single, two-sided market. Brinkema appeared skeptical of that argument, suggesting that the Google case appears to be a “completely different setup.” However, she also pushed back against the DOJ’s assertion of three distinct markets in the ad tech space. The judge will ultimately decide the case, which received a bench trial after Google submitted a $2.3 million check in June to cover potential damages. The decision in the ad tech case could be crucial for Google, which suffered a major loss in August when a federal judge found that it maintained an illegal monopoly over online search. The DOJ has asked the judge in the search case to order Google to sell off its Chrome business, arguing that the tech giant’s ownership and control of the browser stands in the way of its efforts to open up the market.

Canada Antitrust Watchdog Sues Google, Seeking Ad Tech Breakup-- Canada’s antitrust regulator is taking Alphabet Inc.’s Google to court for alleged abuse of dominance in web advertising, adding to a mounting pile of legal challenges for the search giant.Google illegally tied together advertising tools to maintain market supremacy and used this position to skew ad auctions by preferring its own tools, the Competition Bureau alleges.The agency said Thursday it applied to the Competition Tribunal, a court-like independent body, for three forms of redress:

1. That Google sell two ad tools — publisher ad server DFP and ad exchange AdX
2. That Google pay a penalty worth three times the value of the benefit it derived, or 3% of global gross revenue if that number can’t be “reasonably determined”
3. For Google to stop anticompetitive practices.

The case comes one week after the US Justice Department and a group of states proposed major changes to Google including a forced sale of its web browser, claiming it had illegally monopolized online search. Mountain View, California-based parent company Alphabet is one of the world’s most valuable companies, with a market capitalization of about $2 trillion. In an emailed statement, Google’s Vice President of Global Ads Dan Taylor said the Canadian complaint ignores “intense competition where ad buyers and sellers have plenty of choice” and the company will make its case in court. A similar probe into Google’s ad practices is advancing in the UK.

Supreme Court steps into fight over FCC's $8 billion subsidies for internet and phone services (AP) — The Supreme Court on Friday stepped into a major legal fight over the $8 billion a year the federal government spends to subsidize phone and internet services in schools, libraries and rural areas, in a new test of federal regulatory power.The justices will review an appellate ruling that struck down as unconstitutional the Universal Service Fund. The Federal Communications Commission collects money from telecommunications providers, who then pass the cost on to their customers.A conservative advocacy group, Consumer Research, challenged the practice. The justices had previously denied two appeals from Consumer Research after federal appeals courts upheld the program. But the full 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, among the nation’s most conservative, ruled 9-7 that the method of funding is unconstitutional.The Biden administration appealed that ruling, but the case probably won’t be argued until late March. At that point, the Trump administration will be in place and it not clear whether it will take a different view of the issue.The 5th Circuit held that the funding method is unconstitutional because Congress has given too much authority to the FCC and the agency in turn has ceded too much power to a private entity.The last time the Supreme Court invoked what is known as the non-delegation doctrine to strike down a federal law was in 1935. But several conservative justices have suggested they are open to breathing new life into the legal doctrine.

TikTok owner seeks $1.1 million from former intern accused of sabotaging AI project— China’s ByteDance is suing a former intern for $1.1 million, alleging he deliberately attacked its artificial intelligence large language model training infrastructure, a case that has drawn widespread attention within China amid a heated AI race. The parent company of TikTok is seeking 8 million yuan ($1.1 million) in damages from the former intern, Tian Keyu, in a lawsuit filed with the Haidian District People’s Court in Beijing, the state-owned Legal Weekly reported this week. While lawsuits between companies and employees are common in China, legal action against an intern and for such a large sum is unusual. The case has drawn attention due to its focus on AI LLM training, a technology that has captured global interest amid rapid technological advances in so-called generative AI, used to produce text, images or other output from large bodies of data. ByteDance declined to comment on the lawsuit on Thursday. Tian, whom other Chinese media outlets have identified as a postgraduate student at Peking University, did not immediately respond to emailed messages. Tian is alleged to have deliberately sabotaged the team’s model training tasks through code manipulation and unauthorized modifications, according to Legal Weekly, which cited an internal ByteDance memo. In a social media post in October, ByteDance said it had dismissed the intern in August. It said that, while there were rumors that the case had cost ByteDance losses in millions of dollars and involving over 8,000 graphics processing units, these were “seriously exaggerated.”

Yes, That Viral LinkedIn Post You Read Was Probably AI-Generated | WIRED --AI-GENERATED WRITING IS now all over the internet. The introduction of automated prose can sometimes change a website’s character, like when once beloved publications get purchased and overhauled into AI content mills. Other times, however, it’s harder to argue that AI really changed anything. For example, look at LinkedIn. The Microsoft-owned social media site for business professionals has embraced AI, even offering LinkedIn Premium subscribers access to its own in-house AI writing tools that can “rewrite” posts, profiles, and direct messages. The initiative appears to be working: Over 54 percent of longer English-language posts on LinkedIn are likely AI-generated, according to a new analysis shared exclusively with WIRED by the AI detection startup Originality AI. It’s just that the corporate-speak style of AI writing on the platform can be tricky to distinguish from genuine human-penned Thought Leader Blogging. Originality scanned a sample of 8,795 public LinkedIn posts over 100 words long that were published from January 2018 to October 2024. For the first few years, the use of AI writing tools on LinkedIn was negligible. A major increase then occurred at the beginning of 2023. “The uptick happened when ChatGPT came out,” says Originality CEO Jon Gillham. At that point, Originality found the number of likely AI-generated posts had spiked 189 percent; it has since leveled off. LinkedIn says it doesn’t track how many posts on the site are written or edited with AI tools. “But we do have robust defenses in place to proactively identify low-quality, and exact or near-exact duplicate content. When we detect such content, we take action to ensure it is not broadly promoted,” says Adam Walkiewicz, LinkedIn’s head of “feed relevance.” “We see AI as a tool that can help with review of a draft or to beat the blank page problem, but the original thoughts and ideas that our members share are what matter.” LinkedIn is for finding a new job and keeping in touch with former coworkers, which means it’s a relatively staid social media platform. But in recent years, it’s developed its own network of influencers and is surprisingly popular with Gen Z, including teenagers. Like everywhere else on the internet, people are thirsty for attention on LinkedIn, too, and startups have realized there’s money to be made helping people grow their audiences. There’s a cottage industry of AI LinkedIn comment and post generators to help the career-minded churn out content to dazzle potential bosses or prospective customers. Instead of spending four minutes puzzling over the right tone with which to congratulate an ex-colleague on their promotion, it now takes four seconds to conjure up an algorithmically generated accolade instead. But LinkedIn users who spoke to WIRED say that they rely more on general-purpose large language models to cobble their LinkedIn posts together rather than bothering with specialty AI tools. Content writer Adetayo Sogbesan says she uses Anthropic’s Claude to spin up rough drafts of posts she creates on behalf of clients in the tech industry. “Of course, there’s a lot of editing done after,” she says, but the chatbot still “helps me save a lot of time.”

'AI Jesus' avatar tests man's faith in machines and the divine (AP) — Would you trust an “AI Jesus” with your innermost thoughts and troubles? Researchers and religious leaders on Wednesday released findings from a two-month experiment through art in a Catholic chapel in Switzerland, where an avatar of “Jesus” on a computer screen — tucked into a confessional — took questions by visitors on faith, morality and modern-day woes, and offered responses based on Scripture. The idea, said the chapel’s theological assistant, was to recognize the growing importance of artificial intelligence in human lives, even when it comes to religion, and explore the limits of human trust in a machine. After the two-month run of the “Deus in Machina” exhibit at Peter’s Chapel starting in late August, some 900 conversations from visitors –- some came more than once –- were transcribed anonymously. Those behind the project said it was largely a success: Visitors often came out moved or deep in thought, and found it easy to use. A small sign invited visitors to enter a confessional -– chosen for its intimacy –- and below a lattice screen across which penitent believers would usually speak with a priest, a green light signaled the visitor’s turn to speak, and a red one came on when “AI Jesus” on a computer screen on the other side was responding. Often, a lag time was needed to wait for the response – a testament to the technical complexities. After exiting, nearly 300 visitors filled out questionnaires that informed the report released Wednesday.Philipp Haslbauer, an IT specialist at the Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts who pulled together the technical side of the project, said the AI responsible for taking the role of “AI Jesus” and generating responses was GPT-4o by OpenAI, and an open-source version of the company’s Whisper was used for speech comprehension.An AI video generator from Heygen was used to produce voice and video from a real person, he said. Haslbauer said no specific safeguards were used “because we observed GPT-4o to respond fairly well to controversial topics.”Visitors broached many topics, including true love, the afterlife, feelings of solitude, war and suffering in the world, the existence of God, plus issues like sexual abuse cases in the Catholic Church or its position on homosexuality.Most visitors described themselves as Christians, though agnostics, atheists, Muslims, Buddhists and Taoists took part too, according to a recap of the project released by the Catholic parish of Lucerne. About one-third were German speakers, but “AI Jesus” — which is conversant in about 100 languages — also had conversations in languages like Chinese, English, French, Hungarian, Italian, Russian and Spanish. “What was really interesting (was) to see that the people really talked with him in a serious way. They didn’t come to make jokes,” said chapel theologian Marco Schmid, who spearheaded the project. Most visitors were aged 40 to 70, and more Catholics respondents found the experience stimulating than did Protestants, the report showed.Schmid was quick to point out that the “AI Jesus” – billed as a “Jesus-like” persona – was an artistic experiment to get people thinking about the intersection between the digital and the divine, not substitute for human interaction or sacramental confessions with a priest, nor was it intended to save pastoral resources. The Catholic Church from the Vatican on down has been wrestling with the challenges –- and possible opportunities -– presented by the explosion in public interest in AI since generative artificial intelligence captured the world’s attention two years ago when OpenAI’s ChatGPT made its debut. The Vatican has appointed a friar from a medieval Franciscan order as its top expert on AI, and a Lutheran church in Bavaria served up sermons delivered by a chatbot last year. Pope Francis, in his annual peace message for this year, pushed for an international treaty to ensure the ethical use of AI technology.Chatbots like ChatGPT are powered by algorithmic models trained on vast pools of text and other data to mimic speech and generate seemingly unique and human-like responses. Haslbauer is sensitive to public reaction and has noted chatter on social media saying the project is “blasphemous” or the “work of the devil.” “If you read comments on the internet about it, some are very negative — which is scary,” Haslbauer, whose long-haired look featured as a basis for the image of the virtual Jesus. In a demonstration of the technology in the chapel, Haslbauer queried “AI Jesus” about its message for a troubled world, and about whether AI could be helpful as a way for people to find God. “All knowledge and wisdom ultimately come from God,” the chatbot said in a soothing voice, after a pause to respond, and the image briefly crackled. “If used wisely, AI can indeed be a tool to explore the wonders of creation, deepen our understanding of Scripture, and foster connections among people.” “Yet it remains essential to seek God with all your heart and soul beyond any technology,” it added.

Gen Z men could ditch real women for AI, warns Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt after a tragic suicide involving a chatbot -- Artificial intelligence could soon create the perfect virtual partner, according to ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, potentially spelling a societal disaster. Speaking on a podcast hosted by Scott Galloway this week, Schmidt said he feared AI could soon be capable of providing the emotionally ideal girlfriend to despondent young males struggling to attract a mate. “That kind of obsession is possible, especially for people who are not fully formed,” he told the New York University marketing professor. Galloway has repeatedly voiced his concerns about an entire generation of young men unable to find their bearings in life. The notion that AI will appeal to involuntary celibates or “incels”—brought to the silver screen in 2013’s Her—is anything but farfetched. Already a decade ago, researchers determined how many likes on Facebook were needed on average before the algorithm knew a person’s preferences better than a colleague, friend, family member, and eventually even their spouse.Indeed, Schmidt’s comments come after the tragic suicide of 14-year-old Sewell Setzer III, who had been engaging in a kind of relationship with an AI chatbot that demanded he remain faithful to it and not “entertain the romantic or sexual interests of other women”. His mother is now suing the company behind it, alleging it went to great lengths to engineer a harmful dependency on its product, emotionally abused Setzer, and failed to notify anyone when he expressed suicidal thoughts. “There’s lots of evidence that there’s now a problem with young men,” said Schmidt, who co-authored a new book on AI with the late Henry Kissinger, called Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit.“So they turn to the online world for enjoyment and sustenance, but also—because of the social media algorithms—they find like-minded people who ultimately radicalize them, either in a horrific way like terrorism or in the kind of way you’re describing where they’re just maladjusted.” Galloway has frequently raised his concerns that the #MeToo movement, while justifiably lifting women up and elevating their standing, either by design or default denigrated men in the process.While Gen Z women are the first to be more successful than their male counterparts—with more attending college, achieving success in their careers, and earning higher wages—mothers are contacting Galloway about their Gen Z sons sitting in a basement, vaping, and playing video games. Since females typically desire partners who are capable of providing for a family, a large number of young men may end up single. This makes them more prone to seeking companionship in AI as a result, a need companies are all too willing to exploit for commercial gain. “The industry is optimized to maximize your attention and monetize it,” Schmidt agreed, explaining the incoming administration will likely not have any political will to impose guardrails on AI. “I’m sorry to say it’s likely [going] to take some kind of calamity to cause a change in regulation,” Schmidt said.

BankThink: Bank regulators have concepts of a plan to deal with AI By John Heltman - Many years ago when I was in college I worked on a charter fishing boat for a summer. I learned a great deal over those months….. But the two most important lessons I learned were, first, that I am not capable of earning a living through manual labor, and second, that confident obfuscation is a suitable alternative to expertise. Or, as the first mate who trained me put it, "If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with [nonsense]." In a string of speeches last week, the top federal banking regulators outlined goals and framed their thinking about artificial intelligence in financial services, but the biggest questions around liability and widespread adoption remain unanswered.

Fed's Bowman: Regulators 'must have an openness' to AI — Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said banking regulators should create a supervisory atmosphere around artificial intelligence that creates space for banks to try new use cases while evaluating those use cases based on their risk to the bank and the broader financial system. While the risks, benefits and magnitude of artificial intelligence's impact on financial services remain unclear, agencies should keep an open mind toward the technology and avoid reflexive risk aversion in bank supervision, Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman said.

US Marshals And FBI Warn Public Of Nationwide Phone Scams - Scammers often sound convincing by providing badge numbers, names of real law enforcement officials and federal judges, and even spoofing caller IDs to appear as if they’re calling from a government agency or courthouse, the agencies said in a statement. In Colorado, multiple incidents have been reported in which scammers use the names of actual U.S. Marshals, including U.S. Marshal Kirk Taylor, claiming there’s a warrant for the victim’s arrest unless a payment is made. Victims across the state have suffered losses totaling tens of thousands of dollars, the agencies said. The U.S. Marshals Service receives daily inquiries from individuals targeted by these scams. Authorities recommend scam victims file a report with local police and a complaint with the FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center at ic3.gov. Callers can remain anonymous. The law enforcement agencies said Americans should never divulge personal or financial information to unknown callers. The U.S. Marshals Service said it will never ask for credit or debit card numbers, wire transfers, bank routing numbers, or Bitcoin deposits for any purpose. Authorities suggest hanging up and calling a local court clerk to verify any supposed court orders.

Binance Prompts Urgent Warning Over Scammers Impersonating Staff -- Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, has issued a stark warning to users about the growing danger of scammers impersonating its staff members.As the crypto market continues to bullishly grow with increased widespread adoption, scams targeting crypto investors are becoming increasingly prevalent.On Friday, Nov. 29, Binance released a blog post detailing precautions on how to spot a potential fake exchange employee.The exchange warned that scammers often impersonate representatives from reputable organizations, creating fake profiles and groups on messaging apps such as Telegram and WhatsApp.“These fraudulent groups aim to deceive users into divulging personal information or transferring funds under false pretenses,” Binance wrote.Although Binance assured users that it worked with local authorities to protect against scammers, the exchange warned that users must remain vigilant when handling their funds.Binance listed essential things to do when interacting with someone they believe to be an exchange official, including using Binance Verify to confirm the authenticity of accounts and emails.“Binance will never appoint representatives to provide investment advice to users,” the exchange wrote.The exchange also urged all users to pay extra attention to the details of the accounts, including image quality and proper grammar in messages.The warning from Binance comes as the number of crypto scams continues to rise globally.In April, a man pleaded guilty to creating a fake version of Coinbase’s website, allowing him to obtain login credentials to the actual site and steal around $9.5 million of crypto, Fortune reported.Chirag Tomar was charged with one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering and one count of conspiracy to commit wire fraud.According to court documents, the 30-year-old created a phony version of Coinbase Pro’s website with a group of co-conspirators.Tomar used the website to scam over 542 victims out of their crypto by handing over their login info to the fake site.In the first half of 2024, scammers collected $679 million in cryptocurrency, making it the most lucrative payment method behind only bank transfers, according to research from The Motley Fool.In 2023, U.S citizens lost $5.6 billion to cryptocurrency scams, marking a 45% increase from a year prior, according to the FBI.“Scams targeting investors who use cryptocurrency are skyrocketing in severity and complexity,” FBI Director Christopher Wray said.The FBI believes that the decentralized nature of crypto is a key reason why scams are rising, as hackers are able to pursue quick and irreversible transactions globally.According to a survey by Regula, synthetic identity fraud, which combines both fake and real identity features, accounted for 46% of reported AI-generated fraud cases.

Court overturns US sanctions against cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department acted outside its authority when it sanctioned cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash in 2022 and accused it of helping launder over $7 billion for North Korean hackers and other malicious cyber actors, a U.S. appeals court ruled. A three-judge panel of the New Orleans-based 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday sided with six users of Tornado Cash who with the financial backing of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase filed a lawsuit challenging the sanctions. Cryptocurrency mixers are anonymized software tools that allow users to conceal the source or owner of digital assets. The sanctions had been imposed by the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. OFAC blacklisted Tornado Cash after concluding it was helping launder proceeds of cyber crimes, including more than $455 million stolen by the Lazarus Group, a North Korean government-backed hacking group. Writing for a panel comprised of conservative judges, U.S. Circuit Judge Don Willett said federal law only gave OFAC the authority to regulate property, which Tornado Cash's immutable crypto-mixing smart contracts did not constitute. Such self-executing smart contracts, or "mixers," provided increased anonymity by collecting, pooling and shuffling cryptocurrencies that were deposited by many users and could not be altered, removed or controlled, Willett said. The judge, who was appointed by Republican President-elect Donald Trump during his first four-year term, said the design of that privacy-enabling software code rendered it incapable of being owned or deemed legally as property. He acknowledged "the real-world downsides of certain uncontrollable technology falling outside of OFAC's sanctioning authority." But Willett said it was up to Congress to update the 1977 law for the internet age, not the court. The Treasury Department did not respond to requests for comment. Paul Grewal, the chief legal officer of Coinbase, in a post on X hailed the ruling as "a historic win for crypto and all who cares about defending liberty." Coinbase had argued that OFAC's decision to sanction an entire technology could stifle innovation and undermine privacy. In May, one of Tornado Cash's developers, Alexey Pertsev, was sentenced to five years and four months in prison in the Netherlands for money laundering. Two Tornado Cash founders, Roman Semenov and Roman Storm, were separately charged last year with money laundering and sanctions violations by federal prosecutors in New York.

Ohio Man Loses Life Savings in $425K Crypto Scam—Here’s How It Went Down -As the crypto market continues to offer lucrative opportunities for investors, it has also attracted malicious actors who consistently devise new schemes to defraud inexperienced or beginner investors.The latest press release by the US Department of Justice (DoJ) highlighted a recent example of such fraud. The report revealed that an Ohio man fell victim to a cryptocurrency scam and lost his life savings to fraudulent activities.As reported by the DoJ, the incident began in October 2023 when the Elyria resident encountered a pop-up window on his computer warning of a “technical issue.”Following the prompt, he called the provided number, only to be told that his retirement account had been compromised. The scammers falsely claimed that funds from his account were being wired to China, Russia, and a Las Vegas casino.To resolve the issue, the victim granted remote access to his computer, unknowingly giving the scammers full control over his financial accounts. Over time, the fraudsters transferred $425,000, the victim’s life savings, into various cryptocurrency wallets. The stolen funds were eventually converted into 947,883 Tether (USDT), a blockchain-based stablecoin, and transferred to a digital wallet.Federal investigators used “blockchain analysis” to trace the stolen cryptocurrency following the theft. On July 31, 2024, law enforcement executed a federal seizure warrant, recovering the stolen 947,883 USDT tokens and transferring them to a government-controlled virtual wallet.The US Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Ohio has since filed a civil forfeiture complaint seeking to confiscate the recovered funds. If successful, the government plans to provide compensation to the victim.The complaint also alleges that additional cryptocurrency in the associated wallet is subject to forfeiture as fraud proceeds. However, the claims in the complaint remain allegations at this stage, requiring proof by a “preponderance of the evidence” during trial.According to the report, Tether facilitated the investigation. The US Department of Justice noted:The FBI Cleveland Division is actively investigating cryptocurrency fraud schemes perpetrated on victims throughout the United States, including in the Northern District of Ohio. The United States is represented in this matter by Assistant United States Attorney James L. Morford. The USAO would like to acknowledge Tether for its assistance in this matter.Notably, this incident is just one of many crypto-related fraud cases uncovered by the US Department of Justice in recent months. Earlier this month, the department exposed a $73 million crypto laundering operation.

Mayfield resident possibly out half-million dollars in crypto scam - cleveland.com -- A resident reported an incident Nov. 25 in which she was investing in cryptocurrency and had been frauded out of $520,000 over the past two years.She explained that she had been purchasing Bitcoin through various apps and using a company to manage her portfolio.She discovered the fraud when she decided to withdraw money but was told that she needed to send a deposit to a specific person. Her bank subsequently did not allow the transfer because the recipient’s name was known to them as being part of a scam. The incident has been reported on IC3.gov and reported to the attorney general. It is being investigated to determine if the entire value of her investment was made to a fraudulent business and if any of the money can be recouped.

Cryptocurrency entrepreneur who bought banana art for $6.2 million eats it (AP) — A cryptocurrency entrepreneur who bought a piece of conceptual art consisting of a simple banana, duct-taped to a wall, for $6.2 million last week ate the fruit in Hong Kong on Friday. Chinese-born Justin Sun peeled off the duct tape and enjoyed the banana in a press conference held in The Peninsula Hong Kong, one of the city’s priciest hotels, in the popular shopping district of Tsim Sha Tsui. “It tastes much better than other bananas. Indeed, quite good,” he said. “Comedian,” by Italian artist Maurizio Cattelan, was a phenomenon when it debuted in 2019 at Art Basel Miami Beach, as festivalgoers tried to make out whether the single yellow piece of fruitaffixed to a white wall with silver duct tape was a joke or a cheeky commentary on questionable standards among art collectors. At one point, another artist took the banana off the wall and ate it.The piece attracted so much attention that it had to be withdrawn from view. But three editions sold for between $120,000 and $150,000, according to the gallery handling sales at the time.Last week, Sun, founder of cryptocurrency platform TRON, made the winning bid at the Sotheby’s auction in New York. Or, more accurately, Sun purchased a certificate of authenticity that gives him the authority to duct-tape a banana to a wall and call it “Comedian.”At the time, Sun said in a statement that the piece “represents a cultural phenomenon that bridges the worlds of art, memes, and the cryptocurrency community.”“I will personally eat the banana as part of this unique artistic experience, honoring its place in both art history and popular culture,” he said.The South China Morning Post reported the banana he ate on Friday was bought in Hong Kong.

'Human crimes is a blind spot': How banks can nab felons -- The Knoble, a nonprofit that brings banks, credit unions, payment networks and law enforcement together to detect elder and child exploitation and human trafficking, has worked with more than 600 banks.

Exclusive: Reps. Barr and Hill press FDIC on brokered deposits rule — Leading House Republicans on banking issues called on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to withdraw its brokered deposit proposal, previewing part of the GOP's bank regulatory agenda in the next Congress. Representative Andy Barr, a Republican from Kentucky, alongside Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., leading Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee, led the letter asking the FDIC to withdraw its brokered deposits proposal. They pushed back against Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Martin Gruenberg's characterization of the Synapse collapse in his July brokered deposits proposal.

Canadian regulators launch review of sales practices in bank branches --Canadian securities regulators are launching a review of sales practices in the country's bank branches — the latest example of the industry drawing scrutiny on both sides of the border over alleged high-pressure tactics. The inquiry by securities regulators came in response to reporting that bank employees pushed products in ways that misled customers as they sought to meet their sales targets.

BankThink: Chase and other megabanks aren't — and never will be — community banks -- True community banks, those based in the local communities they serve, are used to the nation's largest financial institutions misleading the public into thinking that they, too, are "community banks" by using creative marketing campaigns. Wells Fargo applied the moniker to the retail banking arm it used to create fraudulent bank product accounts for an estimated 2 million consumers, while the tax-exempt $171-billion-asset Navy Federal Credit Union uses the term for its overseas military installations program. "Too big to fail" banking giants like to masquerade as community banks when it suits their purposes, but they will never be able to replace real, local bankers with deep ties to their customers, writes Independent Community Bankers of American Chairman Lucas White.

Margin Debt Up 0.3% in October; Highest Level Since 2022 - Margin debt is the amount of money an investor borrows from their broker via a margin account. Trading with a margin debt can magnify gains because an investor can benefit from the upside of any stock without having to invest 100%, resulting in greater profit. On the flip side, trading with margin debt can also exacerbate losses because if a stock's value were to depreciate, the investor may face a margin call and would need to come up with additional cash to reach the minimum requirement. FINRA has released new data for margin debt, now available through October. The latest debt level is at $815.368 billion, the highest level since February 2022. Margin debt is up 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) and up 28.4% year-over-year (YoY). However, after adjusting for inflation, debt level is up 0.2% MoM and up 25.1% YoY. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today's dollar using the consumer price index (CPI) as the deflator. At the 1997 start date, we were well into the boomer bull market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the tech bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit an interim daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak. Debt hit a trough in February 2009, the same month the market hit a bottom. It then began another major cycle of increases. Most recently, we saw a similar surge after the COVID-pandemic, peaking in October 2021, two months before the market's all-time high. At the suggestion of Mark Schofield, managing director at Strategic Value Capital Management, LLC, I've created the same chart with margin debt inverted so that we see the relationship between the two as a divergence. The next chart shows the percentage growth of the two data series from the same 1997 starting date, again based on real (inflation-adjusted) data. I've added markers to show the precise monthly values. Margin debt grew at a rate comparable to the market from 1997 to late summer of 2000 before soaring into the stratosphere. The two synchronized in their rate of contraction in early 2001. But with recovery after the tech crash, margin debt gradually returned to a growth rate closer to its former self in the second half of the 1990s rather than the more restrained real growth of the S&P 500. But by September of 2006, margin debt again went ballistic. It finally peaked in the summer of 2007, about three months before the market. Debt continues to peak as does the market soon after. Most recent evidence of this was in 2021 when the margin debt peaked in October and the market followed two months later by peaking in December. Lance Roberts of Real Investment Advice analyzes margin debt in the larger context that includes free cash accounts and credit balances in margin accounts. Essentially, he calculates the credit balance as the sum of free credit cash accounts and credit balances in margin accounts minus margin debt. The chart below illustrates the mathematics of Credit Balance with an overlay of the S&P 500. Note that the chart below is based on nominal data, not adjusted for inflation. Here, we have retained the NYSE data through November 2017 and switched to the FINRA data. The latest net credit balance is at -$476.978 billion, just above the all-time low from October 2021 of -$509.155. Note: The NYSE suspended its NYSE member firm margin data as of December 2017. I have replaced our margin debt data with FINRA data, which includes data for all firms, not just NYSE member firms. Here's a slightly closer look at the data, starting with 1995. Also, I've inverted the investor credit monthly data and used markers to pinpoint key turning points. As I pointed out above, margin debt data is several weeks old when it is published. Thus, even though it may, in theory, be a leading indicator, a major shift in margin debt isn't immediately evident. Nevertheless, we see that the troughs in the monthly net credit balance preceded peaks in the monthly S&P 500 closes by six months in 2000 and four months in 2007. We are past the longest bull market in history. The peak in margin debt preceded the peak in the monthly S&P closes (the December 2019 peak) by 23 months, much longer than the previous shifts prior to corrections. Interestingly, the most recent peak (December 2021) was not preceded by a trough, unless we use the February 2009 point as a reference! There are too few peak-trough episodes in this overlay series to take the latest credit balance data as a leading indicator of a major selloff in U.S. equities. This has been an interesting indicator to watch and will certainly continue to bear close watching in the future.

Musk calls for abolishing consumer agency GOP has long targeted - Billionaire Elon Musk called for eliminating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, highlighting the renewed threat under President-elect Donald Trump to a regulatory agency that has long been a target of Republicans and business advocacy groups. "Delete CFPB. There are too many duplicative regulatory agencies," Musk wrote in a post on X.

Elon Musk calls to ‘delete’ US consumer finance watchdog - Elon Musk has said he wants to “delete” the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a federal watchdog that helps protect consumers from predatory financial practices. The tech billionaire, who has been tapped to run a “Department of Government Efficiency” in the incoming Donald Trump administration, posted “Delete CFPB” on X, the social media site he owns. He added a declaration that the agency, which employs 1,700 people and has an annual budget of close to $700m, is an example of “too many duplicative regulatory agencies” in Washington. The CFPB is an independent watchdog agency with oversight over banks and other financial institutions, created after the financial crash of 2008 and charged with overseeing consumer protection in the industry. Musk’s post came in response to a recent podcast clip from the venture capitalist Marc Andreessen, a significant Trump donor, who said the agency’s primary purpose is to “terrorize financial institutions”. But it was soon reported that Andreessen’s venture capital firm, Andreessen Horwitz, was among other investors who had backed LendUp, an online consumer payday lender, that was shut down by the CFPB in 2018. The CFPB director, Rohit Chopra, said the company’s lending operations were shuttered “for repeatedly lying and illegally cheating its customers”. Trump announced a plan for Musk and fellow entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to run a new advisory agency, known by the acronym Doge, earlier this month. Musk has said he would like the newly formed commission to cut $2tn from federal government running costs – approximately a third of all government spending.Trump has said Doge and its new “efficiency” tsars would “provide advice and guidance from outside of Government” to “restructure Federal Agencies”.Ramaswamy and Musk – whose X bio is now headlined: “the people voted for major government reform” – outlined plans for a “drastic reduction” in regulations and “mass head-count reductions” last week in the Wall Street Journal.The men said they would rely on two recent US supreme court rulings that limited the authority of federal regulatory agencies to “liberate individuals and businesses from illicit regulations never passed by Congress”.They said Doge would target more than $500bn “authorised by Congress or being used in ways that Congress never intended”, including $535m in funding for public broadcasting, $1.5bn in grants to international organisations and nearly $300m given to progressive groups including Planned Parenthood.

Elon Musk wants to 'delete' the CFPB. Could he? - Elon Musk said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau should be eliminated, calling the bureau an example of "too many duplicative regulatory agencies." The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has long been a target for conservative ire, but dismantling it would require Congress' cooperation.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in October -Excerpt: Single-family serious delinquencies increased slightly in October, and multi-family serious delinquencies increased. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.55%, up from 0.54% September. Freddie's rate is up slightly year-over-year from 0.54% in October 2023. This is below the pre-pandemic lows. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.52%, unchanged from 0.52% in September. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.53% in October 2023. This is also below the pre-pandemic lows. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. For Fannie, by vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.44% are seriously delinquent (down from 1.46% the previous month). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.11% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.15%). For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2023 (98% of portfolio), 0.46% are seriously delinquent (unchanged from 0.46%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years. Here are the multi-family 60+ day delinquency rate since 2006.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey— Mortgage applications increased 6.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 22, 2024.The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 6.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 119 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 12 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 52 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Purchase activity drove overall applications higher last week, as conventional purchase applications picked up pace and mortgage rates declined for the first time in over two months, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping slightly to 6.86 percent,” With the growth in for-sale inventory and signs that the economy remains strong, buyers have remained in the market even though rates have increased recently. The increase in conventional purchase applications helped push the average purchase loan size to $439,200, its highest level in almost a month. The decline in refinance activity was driven by pullbacks in FHA and VA refinances. Applications were significantly higher than a year ago by most measures, but this was compared to the week of Thanksgiving 2023, which was a week earlier than this year’s holiday.” The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.86 percent from 6.90 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.70 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 52% year-over-year unadjusted (due to timing of Thanksgiving - this will be down sharply next week). Purchase application activity is up about 22% from the lows in late October 2023 and is close to the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September but has decreased as rates moved back up.

Housing Nov 25th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.4% Week-over-week, Up 27.1% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now 2.8% below the peak for the year (5 weeks ago). Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.1% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 26.7%), and down 17.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 18.5%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is about two-thirds closed.This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Nov 22nd, inventory was at 719 thousand (7-day average), compared to 722 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 26.5% YoY - On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 29.2% YoY, but still down 21.1% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 26.5% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Nov. 23, 2024
• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 26.5% above year-ago levels For the 55th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared to the same time last year. The nationwide market is slowly rebounding to pre-pandemic levels of inventory. Buyers currently have far more options than they did a few years ago, but with prices and mortgage rates remaining high, not as many of them are within their budget. New listings showed a much more modest increase, so most of this inventory growth is the result of homes sitting on the market for longer.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—climbed 2.8% this week compared with one year ago The number of newly listed homes for sale continued to grow this week, the fourth in a row with year-over-year new listing growth over 1.5%. This is an encouraging sign that even amid a high mortgage rate environment, some sellers are willing to list their homes and make a move. We’ve talked extensively about the lock-in effect, where homeowners who secured a low-rate mortgage in recent years are reluctant to move out and give that favorable financing up, and there are only two cures for this issue. The first, lower mortgage rates, doesn’t appear to be coming any time soon. The second, time, is finally starting to take effect, as the simple reality that people eventually have to move will force new homes onto the market even if their sellers don’t love the mortgage rate they’ll get on their next purchase..
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 55th consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.

Inventory of New Single-Family Houses Jumps to Highest since 2007. Unsold Spec Houses Jump to Highest since 2009 as Sales Suddenly Plunge by Wolf Richter - Big homebuilders cannot sit out this market, they have to do what it takes to build and sell homes to keep their businesses intact and keep their shares from tanking. So they’re building at lower price points, buying down mortgage rates, and throwing in other incentives at a substantial expense to them. Though that may not have been enough.Some demand has shifted to new houses from existing houses whose sales have plunged to the lowest levels since 1995 because their too-high prices have triggered large-scale demand destruction. But inventories of new houses have been piling up, and then there’s this sales issue in October with spec houses.Unsold inventories of new single-family houses at all stages of construction – from not yet started to completed – jumped by 9.3% year-over-year to 492,000 houses, not seasonally adjusted, the highest since December 2007, according to Census Bureau data today. That’s getting on up there. Supply rose to 8.2 months.Unsold inventory of completed new houses spiked by 53% year-over-year to 116,000 houses, the highest since July 2009 during the depth of the Housing Bust when homebuilders were trying to survive.These completed “spec houses” are essentially move-in ready. But builders haven’t found buyers for them yet — and they will need to pretty quickly because they have sunk a lot of capital into these completed houses.The surge in inventory is a good thing for the housing market. Since builders have tied up a lot of capital in spec houses, they have to sell them quickly. Rising inventory of completed houses encourages builders to lower prices and offer deals, which will help resolve the mindboggling dislocations in prices that we’ve seen across the housing market.Sales of completed houses plunged 25% month-to-month in October to 21,000 houses, from 28,000 in September, and from 31,000 in August, a huge outlier, perhaps hurricane-related in the crucial South.If this doesn’t reverse over the next few months, homebuilders will need to start some serious price cutting to get their inventory moving. Year-over-year, sales fell by 4.5%.Months’ supply of completed houses spiked to 5.5 months at the current rate of sales, the highest supply since November 2014, and before that since 2012. Supply spiked because sales plunged and inventory surged. This level of supply of spec houses provides a strong motivation for homebuilders to offer deals:Sales of new single-family houses at all stages of construction, not seasonally adjusted, inched up to about 59,000 in October from 57,000 in September and were up by 7.3% year-over-year, despite the plunge in completed houses. Compared to October 2019, sales were up 18%. So outside of spec houses, sales in October held up.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September - S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in September 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for September, down from a 4.3% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.2%, down from a 6.0% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, dropping from a 5.2% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.5% increase in September, followed by Cleveland and Chicago with annual increases of 7.1% and 6.9%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth with 0.2%. ...The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite upward trends continued to reverse in September, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, and the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw -0.3% and -0.4% returns for this month, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported monthly rises of 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. “Home price growth stalled in the third quarter, after a steady start to 2024,” “The slight downtick could be attributed to technical factors as the seasonally adjusted figures boasted a 16th consecutive all-time high. “We continue to see above-trend price growth in the Northeast and Midwest, growing 5.7% and 5.4%, respectively, led by New York, Cleveland, and Chicago,” Luke continued. “The Big Apple has taken the top spot for five consecutive months, pushing the region ahead of all others since August 2023. The South region reported its slowest growth in over a year, rising 2.8%, barely above current inflation levels.” The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).The Composite 10 index was up 0.1% in September (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.2% (SA) in September.
The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in September. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices. The Composite 10 SA was up 5.2% year-over-year. The Composite 20 SA was up 4.6% year-over-year. The National index SA was up 3.9% year-over-year. Annual price changes were close to expectations.

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September -Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in September. Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices). September closing prices include some contracts signed in May, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.33% (a 4.1% annual rate), This was the 20th consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities (prices declined in Los Angeles and Miami). Seasonally adjusted). San Francisco has fallen 6.8% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 3.5% from the peak, and Denver down 2.5%.

ICE: "Home price growth edged slightly higher in October" The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales.
From Intercontinental Exchange (ICE):
• Home price growth edged slightly higher in October to +3.0% (from +2.9% in September), after easing in each of the previous seven months
• Lower interest rates in August and September combined with weaker Q4 2023 growth numbers cycling out of the 12-month calculation window to cause the slight rise in year-over-year growth
• Annual gains will continue to see upward pressure from Q4 2023 numbers rolling off the books over the next few months, but that annual growth rate should begin to soften again as we move into early 2025, if monthly price gains continue at their current pace
• Rising interest rates in the lead up to, and following, the recent presidential election have led to a modest pull back in demand, which could also lead to softer price gains as we make our way into early 2025

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October -- The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 610 thousand. The previous three months were revised down, combined. Sales of new single-family houses in October 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 17.3 percent below the revised September rate of 738,000 and is 9.4 percent below the October 2023 estimate of 673,000. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels. The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply increased in October to 9.5 months from 7.7 months in September. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 481,000. This represents a supply of 9.5 months at the current sales rate​."Sales were well below expectations of 730 thousand SAAR, and sales for the three previous months were revised down, combined.

US new home sales tumble to two-year low in October (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years in October, likely as a rise in mortgage rates drove buyers to the sidelines and hurricanes disrupted activity. New home sales plunged 17.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units last month, the lowest level since December 2022, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. The sales pace for September was unrevised at a rate of 738,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 15% of U.S. home sales, would ease to a pace of 725,000 units. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, and can be volatile on a month-to-month basis. They dropped 9.4% year-on-year in October. Mortgage rates have reversed all of the decline that had pushed them to more than a 1-1/2-year low of 6.08% at the end of September after Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.72% by the end of October, tracking a rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which have increased on strong domestic data that have suggested a slower path of rate cuts from the U.S. central bank. Expectations of fewer rate cuts next year have also been strengthened by fears of a resurgence in inflation. President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday he would impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, on his first day in office. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.84% last week. New home sales tumbled 27.7% in the densely populated South, likely as hurricanes disrupted activity. They dropped 9.0% in West, but rose 1.4% in the Midwest and soared 53.3% in the Northeast. The median new house price increased 4.7% to $437,300 in October from a year earlier. The inventory of new homes increased to 481,000, the highest level since early 2008, from 471, 000 units in September. At October's sales pace it would take 9.5 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 7.7 months in September.

New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease Sharply to 610,000 Annual Rate in October. Brief excerpt: Important: Sales in October were impacted by the hurricanes. The south region was down 27.7% year-over-year (“South” includes Florida, the Carolinas and Georgia - states hit hardest by hurricanes Helene and Milton). Excluding the South, sales were up about 8% year-over-year. The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 610 thousand. The previous three months were revised down, combined. ..The next graph shows new home sales for 2023 and 2024 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in October 2024 were down 9.4% from October 2023. New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have increased year-over-year in 17 of the last 19 months.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.5% Year-over-year --From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 November -Due to the Veteran’s Day calendar shift, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year performance comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 November. ... 10-16 November 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):
• Occupancy: 63.3% (+1.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.96 (-1.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$98.11 (+0.4%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year.The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays.

Personal Income increased 0.6% in October; Spending increased 0.4% - The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, October 2024 report for October: Personal income increased $147.4 billion (0.6 percent at a monthly rate) in October, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $144.1 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $72.3 billion (0.4 percent).The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent in October. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI increased 0.4 percent and real PCE increased 0.1 percent; goods increased less than 0.1 percent and services increased 0.2 percent. The October PCE price index increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.1 percent YoY in September, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.8 percent YoY, up from 2.7 percent in September, and down from the recent peak of 5.4 percent in February 2022.The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2024 (2017 dollars). Personal income was above expectations, and PCE was at expectations.Inflation was close to expectations.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 213,000 --The DOL reported:In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 213,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 217,750 to 218,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 217,000.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

Hyundai, Kia recall over 200K EVs over power issues - Hyundai and Kia announced this week recalls for more than 200,000 electric vehicles due to loss of drive power that can increase the risk of crash, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). Hyundai’s recall encompasses over 145,000 cars, including some IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6 EVs along with Genesis GV60, Genesis GV70 and Genesis G80 models. NHTSA said in a Thursday letter that the Integrated Charging Control Unit (ICCU) may get damaged and stop charging the 12-volt battery, “which can result in a loss of drive power.” The dealers will update the ICCU software. They will also inspect the units and fuses, replacing the parts if necessary, according to NHTSA. The owners can expect to be notified on Jan. 17, 2025. Kia is recalling over 62,000 EV6 models over similar issues, per the administration. The owners will be contacted through mail starting on Dec. 13.In June, Kia recalled more than 460,000 Telluride SUVs over potential fire risks. The vehicle’s front power seat motor could overheat because of a stuck seat knob. Both Hyundai and Kia recalled over 3.4 million vehicles last year in September over the risk of an engine compartment fire, with NHTSA advising owners to “park outside and away from structures until the recall repair is complete.”

US Postal Service demands rural carriers send back “overpaid” wages right before Christmas season -- Notices went out to 130,000 rural carriers this week that they may be invoiced for “overpayment,” supposedly due to mail volume data from the last 52 weeks having been incorrectly credited where territorial route adjustments were made. In a video presentation, National Rural Letter Carriers Association (NRLCA) President Don Maston explained to workers that the new Rural Route Evaluated Compensation System (RRECS) with the United States Postal Service (USPS), which the union agreed to behind workers’ backs without a vote, holds workers financially responsible for mis-adjusted mail volume data when routes were redistributed during the last evaluation in October. According to one rural carrier who contacted the World Socialist Web Site, he and his co-workers will have to pay back $600-800 in the coming weeks, as he pointed out, “right at Christmas.” The claim that rural carriers have been “overpaid” only serves as salt in their wounds. The massively unpopular RRECS is essentially a system for industrial-scale wage theft. Since it was introduced, two-thirds of letter carriers have seen their pay, which is based on piece-rate estimations of the workload of their routes, cut, in many cases by $10,000 or even $20,000 per year. RRECS is part of the larger misnamed “Delivering for America” restructuring program, aimed at shedding tens of thousands of postal workers and thousands of local post offices as part of the ultimate privatization of USPS, currently an independent federal agency. Similar attacks are being carried out among city carriers, who are facing a new contract with only 1.3 percent annual wage increases. Office and distribution center workers are being subjected to many of the same conditions.The American Postal Workers Union (APWU), representing clerks, maintenance, vehicle maintenance, and support employees has been working without a contract since September. APWU President Mark Dimondstein initiated the extension of the current contract including the “Penalty Overtime Exclusion” period that exempts the Postal Service from paying penalty overtime during the holiday peak season which started on November 2.The rural carrier who spoke to the WSWS stated the routes at his post office have been overburdened since the onset of the Covid pandemic four years ago. Most of the routes were evaluated at 48 hours, but carriers were working sometimes 63 hours to complete their routes, resulting in their working 15 hours for free.According to the most recent MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) governing RRECS, mail volume data from the last 52 weeks were incorrectly credited when territories were adjusted between routes. Donor routes, routes from which mail volume was moved, kept the incorrect mail volume data, thereby inflating the route’s evaluation and, likewise, the carrier’s pay.Recipient Routes, routes that received additional volume, did not receive the mail volume data from the previous route, deflating its evaluation and causing the carrier to be underpaid.The correction outlined in the MOU will be based on the fourth two-week “mini mail survey” that began August 23 and extends until September 6. At the time, rural carriers wrote in to the WSWS to report that mail volumes were artificially low which would ensure that their work would be undercounted and their wages suppressed for the coming six months. Carriers’ pay was adjusted to reflect the lower volume. Speaking to the WSWS, the worker said the adjustment would amount to a $10,000 pay cut. The new MOU will roll back carriers’ evaluations to the results of the August mini mail survey, regardless of the number of hours a carrier may have worked over the course of the year. Carriers who saw their pay increase as a result of the October evaluation will now have to pay back the amount they received over the August adjustment. Additionally, route adjustments will be locked at the August counts for 52 weeks to ensure the mail volume data for next year remains low. The worker says the NRLCA union has sided with management, with a regional representative telling him, “You were overpaid. What’s fair is fair.” When challenged about the hundreds of hours of his free labor the USPS enjoyed over the last year, the representative responded, “This isn’t that.” The three major postal unions, representing hundreds of thousands of American workers, have ushered in decades of concessions betraying their membership by facilitating some of the most significant assaults on workers' jobs, safety, wages, and benefits in the history of the postal service. This necessitates the development of a network of rank-and-file committees to transfer power from the bureaucracy to workers themselves, based on a strategy to fight Delivering for America and the extreme anti-strike laws to which federal employees are subjected.

Alabama executes death-row inmate in third nitrogen asphyxiation execution -- Thursday marked the third time that Alabama has carried out an execution via nitrogen gas asphyxiation, whereby the victim is deprived of oxygen by its displacement with nitrogen, resulting in death by suffocation.The latest victim of the grisly execution method was convicted murderer Carey Dale Grayson, who had been put on death row in 1996 at the age of 19 for the murder of Vickie Deblieux, 37, a brutal act which he and three other teenagers were convicted of carrying out.While the other three youths had their death sentences commuted to life imprisonment due to a ruling by the US Supreme Court preventing death sentences for youth, Grayson’s remained due to his age. Grayson was killed at the age of 50, having spent most of his life on death row.Deblieux’s daughter, Jodi Haley, took a principled stand against the execution and condemned the state’s actions despite the loss of her mother. “Carey Dale Grayson, as a child, he was abused in every possible way, cigarettes put out on his skin because he was standing there ... physical abuse, mental, sexual, thrown out onto the streets as a young adolescent, and I have to wonder how this slips through the cracks of our justice system, because society failed this man as a child and my family suffered because of it. “Murdering inmates under the guise of justice needs to stop.” Denouncing revenge, she said, “No one should have the right to take a person’s possibilities, days, moments, life.” Nitrogen gas was pumped into Grayson’s lungs from a respirator, causing him to shake violently, pull at his restraints and clench his fists. According to the Associated Press, he gasped for air more than a dozen times. At 6:14 p.m. his legs lifted off the gurney and into the air. Grayson only lost consciousness around six minutes after the gas started flowing, at around 6:18 p.m. He appeared to stop breathing at 6:21 p.m. Alabama Corrections Commissioner John Q. Hamm said the nitrogen gas flowed for 15 minutes, and Grayson no longer had a heartbeat after around 10 minutes.

Graphic cigarette warnings upheld by Supreme Court -- The Supreme Court will not hear a challenge to a federal requirement that cigarette packages include graphic warnings showing the impacts of smoking. The court declined to hear the case, the case order from Monday said. Tobacco company R.J. Reynolds brought the case to the Supreme Court after the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) requirement for the packaging was consistent with the First Amendment. R.J. Reynolds argued that the images required by the FDA constituted “compelled speech” that violated the First Amendment. The proposed labels from the FDA contained images of tumors, dark lungs, surgery scars and more alongside messages detailing what health issues smoking can cause.R.J. Reynolds also argued some of the proposed labels could be misleading and would “overstate” the severity of the risks of smoking. The FDA argued that the pictures reflected the undisputed risks of smoking, depicting a “factually accurate, common visual representation of the health condition and shows the disease state as it is typically experienced.” Cigarettes are responsible for more than 480,000 deaths annually, according to the presented statement, leading the FDA to encourage the government to end the history of cigarette companies “knowingly and actively conspir[ing] to deceive the public about the health risks and addictiveness of smoking.”Nearly 120 other countries use large, graphic warnings on cigarette packages, which studies suggest may be more effective at relaying smoking risks. The United States has not updated labels since 1984, but the Food and Drug Administrationproposed 13 new warnings for labels in 2019.

Study finds widespread use of unregulated molecular urine tests in older adults An analysis of Medicare claims data found a 60-fold increase in the use of unregulated rapid molecular diagnostic tests for urinary tract infections (UTIs) in older adults from 2016 to 2023, researchers reported yesterday in JAMA Network Open.For the study, researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) used Centers for Medicare and Medicaid (CMS) claims data to assess the number and rate of paid claims for multiplex molecular syndromic panels for UTI among older Medicare beneficiaries. Although urine culture is the traditional test for UTI, multiplex panels produce faster results, are more analytically sensitive, and can simultaneously detect multiple pathogens and some antibiotic-resistance genes. While the Food and Drug Administration has approved multiplex molecular syndromic panels for bloodstream, respiratory, and other types of infections, it has not approved any such test for UTI diagnosis. However, the panels exist as laboratory-developed tests, and they can be used in labs certified under the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments of 1988. The researchers wanted to get a better understanding of how often these unregulated tests are being used, particularly in older adults, for whom UTIs are a common and leading reason for outpatient antibiotic use. "Multiplex panels for UTIs are of particular interest for monitoring, given the large number of UTIs and the frequency with which antibiotics are given for asymptomatic bacteriuria, which may result in patient harm," the study authors wrote. The study included more than 36 million older community-dwelling adults and nursing home residents with Medicare Part A and Part B benefits. Over the study period, researchers identified 1,679,328 claims for UTI multiplex testing. The median age of beneficiaries with claims was 77, and 66% of claims were from female beneficiaries.

Pediatric hospital beds lost due to impact of COVID-19 pandemic -- New research comparing 2019 and 2021 National Inpatient Sample (NIS) Databases from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project shows pediatric hospital admissions were reduced by 17.2% because of pandemic closures or allocations of pediatric beds to adult care.The number of hospitals with at least 1 non-neonatal pediatric admission declined by 374 across the country, the authors said in a research letter in JAMA Network Open.. Almost half of this decline (181 of 374 hospitals [48.4%]) was in hospitals with more than 60% of admissions among Medicaid patients, the authors said.During the first weeks of the pandemic, children’s hospital beds were allocated to adults, as school closures limited common childhood illnesses and children mostly did not suffer from severe COVID-19 infections.Compared with 2019, in 2021 the largest proportional declines were in pediatric hospitals that were private, investor owned (297 to 217 [−26.9%]); small (748 to 570 [−23.8%]); or urban, nonteaching (411 to 276 [−32.8%])."Rapid, uncontrolled closure of pediatric hospital services presents a public health challenge,” the authors said. “While some closed pediatric inpatient services may reopen, history and system dynamics suggest that most will become permanent casualties of the pandemic. If so, access to care among vulnerable rural and Medicaid populations will be especially affected.”

Men more likely than women to develop COVID-19 pneumonia, research suggests - A study of sex-based differences in the risk of COVID-19 pneumonia finds that men were more likely to develop the complication than women (12.0% vs 7.0%) during the declared pandemic period and the early months of the endemic phase of the disease in Mexico.Published in Scientific Reports, the study is based on national COVID-19 epidemiologic surveillance data on more than 1.6 million adult COVID-19 patients analyzed by Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social–led researchers from February 2020 to August 2023. Of all patients, 53.7% were women, and the average age was 43.6 years."Pneumonia is a common and severe complication of COVID-19, often requiring hospitalization and intensive medical care," the researchers wrote, noting that men are at increased risk for severe COVID-19. "Accurate risk assessment for pneumonia development in COVID-19 cases is relevant for clinical decision-making and resource allocation and provides valuable insights into the changing dynamics of the disease." The risk of pneumonia was 9.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9.2% to 9.4%) overall, 7.0% (95% CI, 6.9% to 7.1%) for women, and 12.0% (95% CI, 11.9% to 12.1%) for men. This sex-based disparity was consistently seen throughout all phases of the pandemic, including the endemic phase. After adjusting for age, primary viral genotype at symptom onset, and underlying medical conditions, men were at a 3.3% higher risk for pneumonia than were women (risk ratio [RR], 1.033; 95% CI, 1.032 to 1.034). By predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, the risk of pneumonia was highest with the wild-type virus (21.9%), followed by Delta B.1.617.2 (16.0%), B.1.1.519 (12.7%), and Omicron B.1.1.529 (2.5%), BQ1 (2.2%), and XBB.1.5 (2.0%). Among characteristics associated with more severe COVID-19, the presence of chronic kidney disease was associated with the highest increase in the risk of pneumonia (RR, 1.166). Sex-based disparities in COVID-19 severity appear to be influenced by a complex interaction of genetic, hormonal, immunologic, and other factors, the researchers noted. "Estrogens, which are predominantly present in women, have been linked to an array of immunoprotective effects," they wrote. "These hormones can stimulate both innate and adaptive immune responses, augmenting the production of antiviral interferons and cytokines.""Conversely, men, who have lower estrogen levels but higher levels of testosterone, might experience a comparatively subdued immune response, potentially reducing the strength of their defense against the virus," they added.Women's generally more vigorous immune responses, potentially also influenced by the presence of the X chromosome and different expression levels of angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), may help them eliminate pathogens more efficiently than men but can also raise their risk of the cytokine storm implicated in severe COVID-19, the researchers said.

Sluggish gas exchange in the lungs may be involved in long-COVID brain fog -- Lower rates of gas exchange in the lungs may contribute to impaired cognitive function ("brain fog") tied to long COVID, according to a small study to be presented at next week's Radiological Society of North America's (RSNA's) annual meeting in Chicago.Pulmonary gas exchange is the movement of oxygen from the lungs to the bloodstream and carbon dioxide from the bloodstream to the lungs.University of Iowa researchers in Iowa City evaluated the link between pulmonary gas exchange on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), structural and functional brain MRI, lung-function tests, and performance on cognitive tests in long-COVID patients. For the study, 10 female and 2 male COVID-19 survivors with a median age of 59 years who had persistent shortness of breath, fatigue, or both, were recruited from a post-COVID clinic. "This is the first time that MRI has been used to jointly assess lung and brain function to investigate their relationship in long COVID," lead author Keegan Staab, graduate research assistant in the Department of Radiology at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, said in an RSNA news release. "This research is new in that it combines multiple unique imaging types to study a multiorgan relationship in a disease population."The findings suggest that impaired pulmonary gas exchange may be related to cognitive dysfunction and diminished brain gray-matter and white-matter volumes in long-COVID patients. They also indicate that increased cerebral blood flow may be tied to decreased gas exchange in these patients, the authors said."If these findings can be generalized to the long COVID population, the study suggests that there may be a causative relationship between cognitive dysfunction and lung dysfunction, suggesting a potential treatment strategy using methods that target improved gas exchange," "It's also a possibility that the disease mechanism that impairs pulmonary gas exchange also leads to higher brain perfusion through downstream vascular injury in both lung and brain."

Study: No unexpected COVID vaccine safety concerns in kids -A new research letter published yesterday in JAMA Network Open shows no new safety concerns or reactogenicity signals among babies and toddlers who received their first COVID-19 vaccines by the age of 2.The research comes from 5,644 US children who received at least 1 dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine between the ages of 6 and 24 months. All of the children had mothers who received a COVID-19 vaccination 30 days before their last menstrual period or during pregnancy.The mean age at first dose was 12.4 months. Twenty percent of the children included in the study received their COVID vaccine with at least one other vaccine administered at the same time.Postvaccination reactions were reported for 46.7% of children, with 21.1% and 38.8% experiencing local and systemic reactions, respectively, the authors said. Only 18 children in the study, 0.3%, experienced reactions described by participants as severe.The most common reactions were fussiness (30%), local reaction (21.1%), and fever (13.8%). Six participants reported a seizure or febrile seizure after receiving COVID-19 vaccination. No deaths were reported.Reactions were more common after the first dose of COVID vaccine than the second.

Analysis of 25 studies shows reduced risk of long COVID after vaccination --- A new meta-analysis of studies involving more than 14 million people published in the Journal of Infection shows that COVID-19 vaccination is associated with a lower risk of developing long COVID, with two doses reducing the odds by 24% and one dose reducing the odds by 15%.In the 25 studies published up to February 2024 that were included for analysis, long COVID was defined as persistent symptoms at 3 months or beyond, and all studies compared long-COVID symptoms between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, with the number of doses received by participants specified. All studies included were observational trials and included in total 14,128,260 participants.In 15 studies, two doses of COVID-19 vaccine before infection resulted in reduced odds of long COVID by 24% (odds ratio [OR], 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65 to 0.89). In 5 studies, one-dose post-COVID vaccination was associated with a 15% reduced odds of long COVID (OR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.98)."Current studies suggest that 2-dose pre-COVID vaccination and 1-dose post-COVID vaccination may have a protective effect against long COVID," the authors concluded. "Vaccination could be a possible measure to maintain quality of life by partially protecting against long COVID. However, more research could be done to evaluate the effect of 3-dose pre-COVID vaccination, particularly in the context of the Omicron variant."

Patient samples reveal pandrug-resistant bacteria from the war in Ukraine are extremely pathogenic --It has been a year ago since bacteria from war-wounded at hospitals in Ukraine were analyzed. The study, which attracted a lot of attention, showed that some of the bacteria types had total resistance to antibiotics. Now, the same researchers have examined the infectiousness of the bacteria."The bacterium 'Klebsiella pneumoniae,' which is resistant to all antibiotics, is also particularly aggressive and dangerous," says Kristian Riesbeck, who led the study.Lund University in Sweden has previously reported on Riesbeck, professor of clinical bacteriology at Lund University and senior consultant, who was contacted by the Ukrainian microbiologist Oleksandr Nazarchuk for assistance in examining the degree of antibiotic resistance in bacteria from severely war-wounded and infected patients being treated in hospital. Using samples from 141 war-wounded (133 adults wounded in the war and eight new-born babies with pneumonia), it could be shown that several bacteria types were resistant to broad-spectrum antibiotics and that six percent of all samples were resistant to all the antibiotics that the researchers tested on them.Now, the researchers have published an article in the Journal of Infection, in which the researchers have gone on to examine whether Klebsiella pneumoniae has the ability to cause disease in a wider context. Klebsiella can cause urinary tract infections, pneumonia, skin infections in wounds, and sepsis.The researchers used samples from 37 of the patients who had been previously shown to have resistant bacteria. The entire genome of the bacteria was sequenced to examine whether there were genes that can cause resistance. "All the bacteria were shown to carry the genes that we know are associated with resistance. We saw that one quarter of them were resistant to all the available antimicrobial drugs on the market, these bacteria are said to have total resistance (pandrug-resistant). Infections caused by these bacteria become very difficult, or in some cases impossible, to treat with the medicines we have today," says Riesbeck. Pandrug-resistant bacteria are an extreme form of antibiotic resistance and a growing concern within health care.The researchers were interested in finding out whether infection could be spread further via the bacteria taken from patients in Ukraine. To examine this, experiments were carried out in mice and insect larvae.Riesbeck explains, "It was shown that the bacteria types most resistant to antibiotics were also the ones that survived best in mice in connection with pneumonia. Similarly, these bacteria types were so aggressive that they killed the insect larvae considerably faster than the bacteria that were less resistant to antibiotics."Genetic sequencing showed that all Klebsiella bacteria with total resistance examined by the researchers carried the genes that make them more virulent. "In many cases, bacteria lose their ability to infect and cause disease because all their energy is spent on being resistant to antibiotics. But we have perhaps underestimated bacteria: we saw that many of these bacteria types from Ukraine are equipped with genes that make them both resistant and virulent," says Riesbeck. According to Riesbeck, this means the bacteria that spread among the wounded in Ukraine will most likely continue to survive and cause problems. "This is something that will not disappear over time. As long as the patients cannot be isolated and treated properly, the spread of infection will continue."

New rule allows HIV-positive organ transplants - People with HIV who need a kidney or liver transplant will be able to receive an organ from a donor with HIV under a new rule announced Tuesday by U.S. health officials.Previously, such transplants could be done only as part of research studies. The new rule, which takes effect Wednesday, is expected to shorten the wait for organs for all, regardless of HIV status, by increasing the pool of available organs.“This rule removes unnecessary barriers to kidney and liver transplants, expanding the organ donor pool and improving outcomes for transplant recipients with HIV,” said U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra in a statement.The safety of the practice is supported by research, including a study published last month in the New England Journal of Medicine. That study followed 198 organ recipients for up to four years, comparing those who received kidneys from HIV-positive donors to those whose kidneys came from donors without HIV. Both groups had similar high rates of overall survival and low rates of organ rejection.In 2010, surgeons in South Africa provided the first evidence that using HIV-positive donor organs was safe in people with HIV. But the practice wasn’t allowed in the United States until 2013 when the government lifted a ban and allowed research studies. At first, the studies were with deceased donors. Then in 2019, a team at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore performed the world’s first kidney transplant from a living donor with HIV to an HIV-positive recipient. All told, 500 transplants of kidneys and livers from HIV-positive donors have been done in the U.S.

CDC announces deadly Listeria outbreak linked to ready-to-eat meat, poultry - Late last week the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced a Listeria outbreak linked to a South Carolina producer's ready-to-eat meat and chicken. So far 11 cases and 1 death have been identified in four states. Of 11 people with information available, 9 have been hospitalized, the CDC said. In California, one pregnant women and her twins were sick and both infants died. "Listeria was found in a sample from the mother and from one of the twin infants, but it could not be found in a sample from the other infant," the CDC said. "Because of this, only the mother and one twin are included as confirmed cases in this outbreak." The Listeria monocytogenes infections are linked to recalled Yu Shang Food ready-to-eat meat and poultry products. All products produced prior to October 28, 2024, have been included in a recall, and the CDC urges consumers to throw away all recalled products or return to the store where they were bought. As of last week, Yu Shang Food, Inc, a Spartanburg, South Carolina, establishment, has recalled approximately 72,240 pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products.Seven cases have been identified in California, two in Illinois, and one each in New York and New Jersey. The average age of case-patients is 64, all patients are Asian, and 55% are female. In interviews, patients reported buying their foods from multiple stores. "Seven people shopped in person and online at markets where Yu Shang food products are sold," the CDC said. "Two people (25%) specifically reported eating Yu Shang brand ready-to-eat chicken products."

Tons of chicken, pork and beef recalled over listeria concerns -- Yu Shang Food, Inc. is recalling more than 70,000 pounds of its ready-to-eat meat and poultry products because of a listeria outbreak that has sickened at least 11 people, including one baby who subsequently died.The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) on Thursdayannounced an expanded recall from the distributor, which initially recalled the food products on Nov. 9, 2024.On Monday, the FSIS press release was updated to include an expanded product list with additional products that were being recalled. All items produced before Oct. 28, 2024, are subject to recall, which includes approximately 72,240 pounds of meat or poultry.The products included in the recall bear the establishment number “P-46684” or “EST. M46684” inside the Agriculture Department’s mark of inspection, FSIS said.FSIS said it discovered the problem on Oct. 21, 2024, during routine testing of finished product. Officials then confirmed the product was positive for Listeria monocytogenes, which was subsequently detected in additional testing and in environmental samples, FSIS said. The FSIS is working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other regulatory and public health officials in several states to investigate the listeria outbreak.The CDC said 11 people have been infected with the outbreak strain of listeria across four states. The samples were collected from Oct. 24, 2021, to July 31, 2024. Nine people have been hospitalized.A California pregnant woman and her twins were sick, and both twins died. The mother and one of the twins were both confirmed infected with the strain of the listeria, but listeria was not discovered in a sample from the other infant, who therefore was not counted as a case related to the outbreak.

More carrots recalled in Canada because of E. coli contamination --Grimmway Farms is recalling 365 Whole Foods Market brand organic carrots from the marketplace because of possible E. coli O121 contamination. This recall was triggered by a recall in the U.S. by Grimmway Farms of 35 brands and weight sizes of organic carrots and baby carrots. For photos and label information on the U. S. recalled carrots, click here. The U.S. recalled products are connected to an outbreak of E. coli infections under investigation by the FDA. The Food and Drug Administration reported the outbreak on Nov. 17, saying that there are 39 confirmed patients. Fifteen patients have required hospitalization and one has died. So far, 27 patients have been interviewed, with 26 of them reporting eating eating carrots before becoming ill. According to the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), the recalled products were distributed in British Columbia and Ontario, Canada. Anyone who has eaten any of the recalled carrots and developed symptoms of E. coli infection should seek medical attention and tell their doctor about their possible exposure to the bacteria. Specific tests are required to diagnose the infections, which can mimic other illnesses.The symptoms of E. coli infections vary for each person but often include severe stomach cramps and diarrhea, which is often bloody. Some patients may also have a fever. Most patients recover within five to seven days. Others can develop severe or life-threatening symptoms and complications, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). About 5 to 10 percent of those diagnosed with E. coli infections develop a potentially life-threatening kidney failure complication, known as a hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). Symptoms of HUS include fever, abdominal pain, feeling very tired, decreased frequency of urination, small unexplained bruises or bleeding, and pallor. Many people with HUS recover within a few weeks, but some suffer permanent injuries or death. This condition can occur among people of any age but is most common in children younger than five years old because of their immature immune systems, older adults because of deteriorating immune systems, and people with compromised immune systems such as cancer patients. People who experience HUS symptoms should immediately seek emergency medical care. People with HUS will likely be hospitalized because the condition can cause other serious and ongoing problems such as hypertension, chronic kidney disease, brain damage, and neurologic problems.

Family alleges sewage leak in military housing sickened 4-year-old --A military family in South Carolina is suing Fort Jackson’s privatized housing provider after they say sewage contaminated their home, allegedly causing a life-altering bacterial infection in their 4-year-old son. Travis Wilson, a chaplain in the Army, and his wife, Jaclyn Wilson, ‰led a complaint Nov. 18 against Fort Jackson Housing LLC and Balfour Beatty Military Housing Management LLC in the U.S. District Court of South Carolina for “negligent maintenance of upkeep of military housing,” including “sewage overŠow and hazardous pollution,” according to the complaint. Ad The couple and their six children moved into Fort Jackson housing in South Carolina on Dec. 22, 2022. At move-in, the couple claims they were given a 7-year maintenance history that didn’t accurately represent the house’s conditions, speci‰cally that the report failed to mention previous tenants’ complaints about sewage backŠow, according to the complaint. Shortly after the family moved in, sewage in the upstairs bathroom overŠowed, according to the complaint. Jaclyn Wilson said she reported the problem to maintenance, but after workers arrived, the complaint alleges, they closed the bathroom door and told her that they would return shortly, never materializing. The sewage began leaking through the ceiling and into the kitchen below, with a putrid smell wafting through the home, the complaint states. When the workers returned at a later unspeci‰ed date, they told the family the backŠow problem had been ‰xed, according to the complaint. However, several months later, in March 2023, the complaint states, there was a relapse in sewage leakage, with overŠow again dripping through the ceiling into the kitchen below. The maintenance workers returned, this time removing the toilet only to leave it in the tub for several weeks, the complaint states. During this time, the couple claims workers left a sewer pipe exposed. Eventually, the family relocated to a hotel. The family returned at a later date to ‰nd the toilet still in the tub and the sewer pipe still exposed. At the time of the alleged sewage leaks, the couple’s 4-year-old son often played on the house’s Šoors. In March, around the time of the second leak, the couple noticed he had become lethargic, according to the complaint. When his face began drooping, the couple became alarmed and took him to the emergency room, where they were informed that he was fi‰ghting a bacterial infection affecting his brain. Doctors were so worried about the child’s health that they transferred him to a hospital nearly 400 miles away in Birmingham, Alabama, according to the complaint. “There is something showing in the scan, and you need to leave for Birmingham now,” doctors informed the Wilson family, according to the complaint. After eight neurologists evaluated the child, they determined the boy was experiencing acute disseminated encephalitis, a rare inŠammatory disease that attacks the brain and spinal cord. The doctors also informed the family that the disease is typically caused by a bacterial infection, the complaint states. Common symptoms include fever, fatigue, nausea, vomiting and sometimes seizures. The disease can also affect motor skills and negatively affect speech and vision. The couple claims in their complaint that the bacterial infection was caused by the sewage overŠow from their military housing. They are seeking monetary damages in an amount to be proven at trial, as well as punitive damages, according to the complaint. The couple is also suing the housing organizations for the emotional distress they experienced as a result of their child’s sickness

Flu vaccine estimated to be 21% effective against flu spread to household members -A study of 700 people who tested positive for influenza suggests that their risk of infecting household contacts was 18.8% and that the estimated effectiveness of flu vaccines against secondary infections is 21.0%. Vanderbilt University–led researchers tested nasal swabs for evidence of influenza and analyzed symptom diaries for up to 7 days from 699 participants and their 1,581 household members during the 2017-18, 2018-19, and 2019-20 respiratory virus seasons. Case-patients had sought care at clinics in Tennessee and Wisconsin after experiencing flu-like symptoms."The degree to which vaccines reduce secondary infections after exposure to influenza, especially in high transmission settings, like households, may be especially informative to individuals at increased risk for severe influenza complications," the study authors wrote. The median age of participants with primary infections was 13 years, 54.5% were female, and 49.1% were vaccinated against flu. The median age in household contacts was 31 years, 52.7% were female, 50.1% were vaccinated, and 22.5% were diagnosed as having flu during follow-up. The median interval between index and secondary cases was 3 days. The secondary flu infection risk among household contacts was 18.8%. The secondary infection risk was highest among children younger than 5 years old (20.3% for influenza A and 15.9% for influenza B). Seven percent of secondary infections were asymptomatic.The estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against secondary infection among unvaccinated household contacts was 21.0%. Estimated VE for preventing influenza B among household contacts was 56.4% overall, 88.4% among those aged 5 to 17 years, and 70.8% among those aged 18 to 49 years. The estimated VE was 5.0% against influenza A and 56.4% against influenza B. The VE against H1N1 and H3N2—both "A" strains—was estimated as 21.4% and −26.9%, respectively.

Survey: Doctors rank pertussis vaccine less important than those for other respiratory diseases - An online survey of physicians in the United States, France, and Germany reveals that they consider pertussis (whooping cough) vaccines less important than those against COVID-19, influenza, and pneumococcal disease, although they recognize that adults with weakened immune systems and chronic respiratory illnesses are at elevated risk. For the study, published today in BMC Primary Care, a team led by researchers from the University of Pittsburgh and vaccine developer Sanofi surveyed 400 US physicians and 200 each in France and Germany from November 2022 to January 2023. The respondents were listed in an independent database of physicians who indicated an interest in participating in research. "Pertussis is a highly contagious respiratory tract infection that affects all ages, though it is most severe in young infants," the authors wrote. "Adults, especially those with respiratory conditions or other chronic illnesses can also suffer serious consequences of pertussis." In total, 65% of respondents indicated that universal vaccination against pertussis is important, a lower percentage than for vaccination against COVID-19 (82%), flu (81%), pneumococcal disease (76%), and tetanus (73%). The results were similar by country and before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Respondents estimated that of the adults for whom they recommend the pertussis vaccine, two-thirds agree to receive it but said a common reason for not following through with vaccination was the perception of low personal risk. "Physicians recognized the need to immunize vulnerable adults who are at risk of severe pertussis, such as those with asthma and/or COPD, but this awareness frequently did not result in vaccination of these priority groups, especially without official recommendations to support such vaccination in these groups," the researchers wrote.

Canada confirms first imported clade 1b mpox case -- The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) on November 22 announced the country's first imported clade 1b mpox infection, marking the seventh country outside of Africa to report an illness involving the novel clade. The patient from Manitoba sought care in Canada shortly after returning from travel. PHAC said the case is associated with an ongoing outbreak of clade 1 mpox in central and eastern Africa. It added that the patient is isolating and that a public health investigation, including contact tracing, is under way. "The risk to the general population in Canada remains low at this time. PHAC continues to actively monitor the situation and will provide updated information as it becomes available," the agency said. Canada's case came less than a week after the United States reported its first known imported clade 1 case, involving a patient from California who had recently returned from an affected African nation. The other countries outside of Africa that have reported similar cases are Sweden, Thailand, India, Germany, and the United Kingdom.

Texas reports its first local dengue case of the year The Texas Department of State Health Services (TDSHS) yesterday announced the state's first locally acquired dengue case of the year, which involves a resident of Cameron County on the southern tip of the state on the border with Mexico. Officials said that, amid a global surge in dengue activity, 106 travel-related cases, 1 of them fatal, have been reported among Texas residents. The state's imported cases are the most since 2002. Since 2013, the state has recorded 665 dengue cases, including 40 reported locally from Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr, Val Verde, Webb, and Willacy counties. The TDSHS said mosquitoes remain active in much of Texas into November and December. It urged healthcare providers to consider and test for dengue in people who have symptoms of the virus, and it urged residents to take steps to avoid mosquito bites, such as wearing long sleeves and pants, applying insect repellent, and removing standing water. Florida and California have also confirmed local dengue cases this year. Florida has reported 66 cases in 10 counties this year, most of them in Miami-Dade County. California has reported 15 cases in Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Bernardino counties.

Canadian probe into teen's critical H5N1 infection finds no clear source - As a Canadian teen remains in critical care with an H5N1 avian flu infection in a British Columbia hospital, health investigators said today they haven't identified the source, but have found other clues such as virus changes that may have led to a more severe lower respiratory infection. At a briefing today, Bonnie Henry, MD, MPH, British Columbia's health officer, said an exhaustive search has found no related illnesses. For now, the main part of the investigation is at a standstill while scientists do ongoing work to examine virus mutations and conduct serology tests to see if any asymptomatic illnesses have occurred. Henry said the teen, sick since November 2 and hospitalized since November 8, remains seriously ill and requires breathing assistance, but is stable and has shown progress over the past few days. Extensive testing of health workers, family and other close contacts, and animals has turned up no further infections. Extensive tests on a pet dog that was sick at the same time were negative for avian influenza, with tests also negative on samples from about 25 animals, numerous environmental samples, and from the family that took care of the dog prior to adoption. Wastewater sampling also found no clues. Henry said whole-genome sequencing found that the H5N1 virus from the patient belongs to the D1.1 genotype, which is a different genotype than the one that has infected dairy workers in the United States. Though British Columbia has experienced 54 poultry outbreaks over the past several weeks, phylogenetic analysis by scientists at the BC Centre for Disease Control Public Health Laboratory suggests the patient's sample is fairly distant from the poultry virus and is most closely related—but not identical—to samples from two cackling geese found dead in British Columbia's Fraser Valley in early October. Phylogenetic findings could hint at an intermediary source to the patient, such as another wild bird or an animal, she said. Though the detection of no other human cases—including farm workers with direct poultry contact—and no transmission among people is reassuring, Henry said the identification of mutations linked to greater adaptation to humans, including enhanced cell-receptor binding and the binding to cells deep in the lungs, is concerning. She also noted that the virus may have evolved after infecting the patient. The teen's symptoms began with conjunctivitis, then progressed to a severe respiratory illness. Scientists have obtained serial samples from the patient to identify any mutations that have occurred over the course of the infection. Serology testing of patient contacts is still under way, but so far all tests have been negative. The recent identification of H5N1 in a US child in California is a reminder that children may be more vulnerable to H5N1 infections, because their immune systems may not have encountered similar viruses before, Henry said, adding that the identification of the virus this week in a California retail raw milk samples is a warning that the virus can turn up in unexpected places.

Bird flu has been detected in raw milk in California --State health officials are warning Californians not to drink milk from a Fresno-based dairy farm after bird flu was found in a sample. The virus was found in a batch of cream top, whole raw milk produced and packaged at Raw Farm LLC after a public health laboratory purchased it at a retail outlet for testing. The company issued a voluntary recall stating that the batch consisted of quart and half-gallon fluid milk sizes produced on Nov. 9 with an expiration date of Nov. 27. Stores are encouraged to throw out Raw Farm products with lot ID #20241109, according to a statement from the company. No illness associated with the lot of raw milk has been reported, according to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH). But out of an “abundance of caution,” Californians are urged to not consume any of the affected raw milk and should immediately return any products with lot ID #20241109 back to where they purchased them. Health officials have long warned about the dangers of drinking raw milk or raw milk products that have not been pasteurized. Pasteurization is a process that involves heating liquids for a specific amount of time to kill dangerous bacteria and viruses like bird flu. Outbreaks of numerous bacteria like salmonella, listeria and brucella have been linked to consuming raw dairy products, according to California health officials. California began regularly testing raw milk for bird flu after the virus was found in dairy herds earlier this year. Now, the state will begin testing for the virus twice a week, according to a statement from CDPA. In March, H5NI bird flu was detected in dairy cows and goats, and by April a case of the virus was found in a person — a Texas cattle farmworker. Since then, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and various state public health departments have found bird flu infections in 55 people, with 29 of those cases occurring in California. Most of those who became infected with the virus in California had direct contact with dairy cows infected with bird flu, according to CDPA. Earlier this week, California health officials confirmed that a child had contracted bird flu — the first case in a minor. “The child is recovering from their illness,” the CDC wrote in a release. “An investigation by the California Department of Public Health into the child’s possible H5NI exposure source is ongoing.”

California reports avian flu in retail raw milk sample -- The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) yesterday announced that sampling of retail raw milk for avian flu turned up a positive sample, based on testing at the Santa Clara Public Health Laboratory, with results confirmed the state's food safety lab.Since H5N1 avian flu was first detected in US dairy cattle earlier this year, health officials have emphasized the risk of drinking raw milk, which can harbor H5N1 and several other pathogens. Milk from infected cows contains extremely high levels of the H5N1 virus. Pasteurization inactivates the virus, and though H5N1 viral fragments have been found in some retail milk samples, none contained live virus.The CDPH urged consumers to avoid drinking a batch of whole raw milk produced by Raw Farm, LLC, based in Fresno County. The farm is located in California's Central Valley, which has experienced a surge of avian flu outbreaks in dairy cattle—402 since late August. The California Department of Agriculture has been testing bulk raw milk samples weekly since the virus first began infecting the state's dairy cattle.Based on the state's request, the company issued a voluntary recall on the affected batch of milk. No related human illnesses have reported, and health officials have urged customers to return any remaining product to the retail point of purchase.The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says about 4.4% of US adults consume raw milk at least once a year, and though concerns persist about whether raw milk or products made with raw milk could transmit the avian flu virus to people, the level of risk isn't currently known.Unpublished mouse studies suggest a risk of infection from oropharyngeal (mid-throat) administration of contaminated milk. Drinking unpasteurized milk contaminated with H5N1 could bind to a limited number of receptors in the upper airways or, if the milk were aspirated, could infect lower-airway receptors that allow better H5N1 binding.In the United States, though most human H5N1 cases this year have occurred in people exposed to sick dairy cattle or poultry, two have unexplained exposure. In other developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed seven more avian flu outbreaks across five states, including three in hard-hit California.Two of California's outbreaks occurred at commercial farms, including a layer pullet facility that has nearly 539,000 birds in Merced County and a duck meat farm in Tulare County that has nearly 97,000 birds. The other is a backyard flock in Madera County.One of the outbreaks struck another commercial turkey farm in Utah's Piute County, affecting 35,500 birds.Meanwhile, three of the outbreaks involved backyard birds in different states: Arizona's Maricopa County, Idaho's Lemhi County, and Oklahoma's Roger Mills County.

USDA confirms more avian flu in US dairy cattle and poultry - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has confirmed 25 more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in dairy cattle, all from California. The developments lift California's total to 461 infected herds and the national total in dairy herds to 675 across 15 states since the outbreaks began in March. The outbreaks in California’s hard-hit Central Valley began toward the end of August, and the virus has affected more than one-third of commercial dairy farms in the state, which is the nation’s largest dairy producer. California is also grappling with several recent outbreaks at large poultry farms, including layer facilities. Also today, APHIS confirmed two more outbreaks in poultry, which include a backyard flock in Alaska’s Matanuska Susitna County that has 70 birds and a commercial turkey farm in Minnesota’s Meeker County that has 29,900 birds. In other developments, following the recent detection of H5N1 a raw milk sample by the public health lab in California’s Santa Clara County, Los Angeles County yesterday warned the public about risks from consuming the recalled milk from Raw Farm.The company, based in Fresno, voluntarily recalled the milk following the H5N1 detection in the retail sample. The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health listed 10 retailers that sold the product and said more may be confirmed as the investigation continues.No related illnesses have been reported. “Health inspectors in LA County will be visiting retail establishments where this product was sold to ensure that it is no longer available for purchase,” the group said.

The spread of H5N1 bird flu among animals and the growing possibility of a pandemic - The panzootic—a pandemic in animal species—of the highly pathogenic strain of the H5N1 of avian influenza is cutting a swathe through wild and domestic bird populations internationally, and has now jumped into numerous mammalian species, including humans, several times.The virus has spread to every continent except Australia, where scientists estimate it may arrive in the southern hemisphere by spring via migratory birds from Antarctica. Scientists have warned that bird flu poses an enormous danger of a human pandemic, which could easily dwarf the devastation wrought by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), 903 people have become infected with H5N1 since 2003. Of these, 463 died, a lethality rate of 51 percent. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, with a much lower infection fatality rate, has killed over 27 million people. If a bird flu pandemic does develop, it would likely have a catastrophic impact globally.Most strains of avian influenza found in wild bird populations have a low pathogenicity (LPAI) with no ill effect on the infected animals. There are two highly pathogenic strains (HPAI), H5 and H7 that are extremely lethal. The virus that has reached panzootic levels and is of most concern is H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b. A clade consists of viruses that have a common ancestor. In a comment titled, “Chickens, ducks, seals and cows: a dangerous bird flu strain is knocking on Australia’s door,” senior research fellow at the Doherty Institute Dr. Michelle Wille maps the development of the panzootic from its first detection in a goose in China in 1996. The virus became established in wild bird populations and poultry, where it killed most of the birds it infected. It is spread through the migration of wild birds.By 2003, the virus had become endemic in poultry in Southeast Asia. In an important communication by H. Chen et al., from the Joint Influenza Research Center at Shantou University in China and published in Nature in July 2005, “H5N1 virus outbreak in migratory waterfowl,” presciently warned that the virus “constitutes a major pandemic threat to humans.”The communication described a mass-death event that occurred on 30 April 2005 of mostly bar-headed geese (Anser indicus) at Qinghai Lake in western China. By May 4, bird mortality was more than 100 per day. By May 20, approximately 1,500 birds were dead. The authors warned that the virus had the potential to migrate over the Himalayas. Chen et al. stated, “There is a danger that it might be carried along the birds’ winter migration routes to densely populated areas in the south Asian subcontinent, a region that seems free of this virus, and spread along migratory flyways linked to Europe. This would vastly expand the geographical distribution of H5N1.”In fact, this is what occurred, with the virus spreading to Europe and Africa in 2005. In 2014, the virus again entered Europe and then spread to North America, and in 2016 it re-entered Africa. In 2020, a major shift occurred when outbreaks in wild birds and poultry increased dramatically. Dr. Wille stated, “In 2021, reports streamed in of mass mortality events in Europe and the virus rapidly travelled the world. The world was in the grip of a ‘panzootic’ – a global pandemic in animals.”By October 2021, the virus crossed the Atlantic and reached North America. A year later the virus travelled the length of South America. In October 2023, the virus was detected in brown skuas, scavenging birds in sub-Antarctic islands. In February this year, it was detected in Antarctica.The avian influenza virus is made up of a single strand of ribonucleic acid (RNA) with a genome consisting of eight gene segments. The virus can evolve very rapidly as it has a huge propensity to mutate. When one virus is in a host cell also occupied by another type of virus, it can acquire genes from the other virus in a process known as reassortment, giving the virus the potential to make great evolutionary leaps.Although the avian influenza virus is mostly restricted to birds, the H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has infected numerous mammal species including humans. This has usually occurred in scavenger species when it eats a dead infected bird. When the virus crosses over into non-avian species, which is known as a spillover event, this increases its chances of evolving to enable infection within the species. The more times this occurs, the greater the probability.The H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b is known to be very lethal, with the panzootic killing a huge number of wild birds, poultry and mammals. Some bird species may have been driven to the edge of extinction.

CWD spreads to Montana hunting district near Great Falls - A mule deer buck harvested by a hunter in Montana's Hunting District (HD) 404, north of Great Falls, has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), marking that district's first detection, Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (FWP) said last week in a news release. While the two initial CWD tests from the deer were positive for the fatal neurodegenerative disease, the final confirmation test was negative. "FWP will treat these results as a first detection of CWD in HD 404," the agency said. The state's first CWD identification was in wild herds in 2017. Caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, CWD affects cervids such as deer, elk, moose, and reindeer. Extremely resilient, prions can persist in the environment for years. CWD can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but authorities advise against eating meat from a sick animal (cooking cannot kill prions) and recommend using precautions when handling carcasses.

What happens to road-killed deer, and does it help stem CWD spread? - Roughly 1.8 million deer-vehicle crashes are reported each year in the United States, typically peaking during mating season and the end of Daylight Saving Time in November, although the vast majority—typically those that don't involve motorist injuries or extensive vehicle damage—likely go unreported. While a road-killed deer or other cervid (member of the deer family) may be a safety hazard and unwelcome sight for motorists, chronic wasting disease (CWD) experts view it as a potential reservoir of deadly infectious CWD-causing misfolded proteins called prions, which can persist in the environment for years and pose a risk to other animals. The disposal of those deer carcasses could have implications for both human and animal health, but management practices vary widely by jurisdiction, with state, county, and city officials often taking different, usually budget-based approaches with differing levels of effectiveness, a concept that is itself only vaguely defined. And with most deer dying naturally throughout the landscape and CWD management efforts largely failing to stem disease spread, it begs the question of how much it matters. 'Deer strewn all over the roads' In Wisconsin, where an estimated 30,000 deer-car collisions are reported each year, deer carcass-disposal methods appear nonexistent, said Scott Hygnstrom, PhD, professor emeritus of wildlife damage for the School of Natural Resources at the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. "I don't think any of them are disposed of in approved locations," he told CIDRAP News. "The WDNR [Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources] used to pick up road-killed deer, and township and county road crews used to at least slide them off the roads and shoulders and into the ditches, but a governor a few administrations ago banned the practices, and now there are dead deer strewn all over the roads in various shades of decay for everyone to see. We could do better." In neighboring Minnesota, the Minnesota Department of Transportation (MNDOT) leaves road-killed deer found on state highways and interstates in the same area or as close as possible, MNDOT Spokesperson Anne Meyer told CIDRAP News in an email. About 1,200 deer-car collisions—almost certainly an enormous undercount—are reported to authorities each year in the state, per the Minnesota Office of Traffic Safety. "Crews will drag the animal into the ditch, back slope in the tall grasses, or cover them with compost (typically wood chips, mulch, or dirt) if they are in a visible area," she said. "For some areas of the metro, this may not be possible—We do have a deer composting area located in Anoka [a Twin Cities suburb]." But if the area is mowed by an adjacent landowner or is by a driveway, MNDOT takes the deer to a different location as close to the original site as possible. "In the urban area, we look to take [them] to a landfill, or we will take them to the closest rural area," Meyer said. "No difference between freeways and non-freeways." Most state roads, however, are maintained by counties and cities, and their carcass-management practices range widely, said Michelle Carstensen, PhD, wildlife health program supervisor at the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR). And the DNR can only make recommendations because it has no jurisdiction over the practices. "In areas like southeast Minnesota, for example, counties just leave them lay on the side of the road on certain county highways," Carstensen said. "They have no staff that goes out and picks them up." If the public complains about dead deer, cities or counties without staff or the right equipment sometimes hire a contractor to haul them away. "We request that they don't move carcasses out of areas where they died for reasons of disease spread, especially chronic wasting disease, and we request best disposal methods" such as disposition in lined landfills or incinerating landfills, or, barring that option, onsite burial, she said. "But that's not necessarily what always happens. Some are allowed to lay, some are covered with woodchips, some are brought to a landfill, some are buried in a pit on city or county land. When people get involved in moving them, that's where the risk becomes more enhanced, because where are the carcasses going?"

Cervantes bushfire impacts evacuation routes, Western Australia - A dangerous bushfire continues to threaten Cervantes, a coastal town about 200 km (124 miles) north of Perth, as of Thursday, November 28, 2024. Emergency warnings remain in place for Cervantes, Wedge Island, Grey, Cooljarloo, and parts of Nambung in the Shire of Dandaragan. Over 43 000 ha (105 255 acres) of land have already been burned since the fire started on November 25. A Bushfire Emergency Warning is in place for people in Cervantes, Western Australia, extending inland to Indian Ocean Drive and north to Bibby Road, including Nambung National Park in parts of Cervantes, Cooljarloo and Nambung in the Shire of Dandaragan, as of 22:49 LT (14:49 UTC) on November 28. “It’s too late to leave,” the warning states. “Fire has impacted evacuation routes and leaving now will put your life in danger. You need to identify a room in your home where you can shelter from the approaching fire. It should have running water, such as a kitchen or laundry, and have a clear exit so you can easily escape. “You must shelter before the fire arrives, as the extreme heat will kill you before the flames reach you. Residents were advised to close all doors and windows and turn off evaporative air conditioners but keep water running through the system if possible, and to monitor both inside and outside of their homes for fires and embers and turn on sprinklers if they have them. “If your home catches fire and the conditions inside become unbearable, go to an area that has already been burnt. Protect yourself by wearing strong leather boots in case you need to leave your home. If you are in immediate danger, call Triple Zero (000).” The Department of Fire and Emergency Services (DFES) has established an evacuation center at the Jurien Bay Sports and Recreation Centre where 30 evacuees and dozens of caravans stayed overnight. Roads, including sections of Indian Ocean Drive and other local routes, remained closed. The bushfire is still out of control putting Cervantes and nearby areas at risk. Roads, including parts of Indian Ocean Drive and local routes, remain closed. Firefighters are working non-stop using heavy machinery to create barriers and stop the fire from reaching populated areas.

Research links wildfire smoke exposure with increased dementia risk (explanatory video) As Baby Boomers hit retirement, about 1 in 6 Americans is now over the age of 65. The number of Americans living with dementia is projected to skyrocket—but the proportion of older Americans who develop dementia has actually decreased. The exact reason why is uncertain, but various lifestyle and environmental factors can influence a person's risk of cognitive decline.One recently discovered risk is air pollution. Studies have linked exposure to a type of air pollution called fine particulate matter, or PM2.5, with an increased risk of developing dementia, and researchers suspect that some sources of PM2.5 may pose a greater risk than others. New research led by the University of Washington has found that wildfire smoke is especially hazardous. An analysis of the health care records of 1.2 million Southern California residents found that higher long-term smoke exposure was associated with a significant increase in the odds that a person would be diagnosed with dementia.The researchers presented their findings at the Alzheimer's Association International Conference in July and have published the full study in JAMA Neurology. "There have been studies that have found total PM2.5 is related to people developing dementia, but no one had looked specifically at wildfire PM2.5," said lead author Joan Casey, a UW associate professor of environmental & occupational health sciences. "Wildfire smoke is a different animal, in that it's much spikier. There are many days where there's no wildfire smoke, and there are some days where exposure is really, really extreme." Researchers analyzed the health records of 1.2 million members aged 60 and older of Kaiser Permanente Southern California between 2008 and 2019, all of whom were free from dementia at the start of the study period. They estimated each person's long-term exposure to both wildfire and non-wildfire PM2.5 as a three-year rolling average, and then identified people who received a dementia diagnosis. Researchers found that for every 1 microgram per cubic meter (µg/m3) increase in three-year average wildfire PM2.5 concentration, the odds of a dementia diagnosis increased by 18%. Exposure to non-wildfire PM2.5 also increased a person's risk of dementia, but to a much lesser degree. "One microgram per meter cubed might sound fairly small, but we have to think about how people are exposed to wildfire smoke," Casey said. "Most days they aren't exposed at all, so this might represent a few days of exposure at a concentration of something like 300 µg/m3, where the AQI is over 200 in someone's community. When you think about it, it's actually a few really severe wildfire smoke days that might translate into increased risk." That risk further increased among racialized people and those living in high-poverty census tracts, following long-term trends in which vulnerable populations often experience disproportionate effects of environmental hazards. The authors suggested that disparities might be related to lower-quality housing, which can increase the amount of smoke that enters people's homes, or lower-income families' inability to afford air filtration systems. The study period does not include the summers of 2020 and 2021, which produced the most extreme wildfire seasons recorded in California. The climate crisis has drastically increased the frequency and severity of wildfires across the American West, introducing "smoke season" in many West Coast regions. The influx of smoke has chipped away at air quality improvements made over the last century. "The main culprit here is climate change," Casey said. "It's a global problem. While individuals can protect themselves with air filters and masks, we need a global solution to climate change. It's going to have to be many-pronged—many people have to be involved to solve this highly complex problem."

First right whales of season gorge on critical food off Massachusetts, giving hope for a strong year - Scientists who study a critically endangered species of whale that lives off New England said encouraging early signs suggest the animals could have a strong season for feeding and breeding. The North Atlantic right whale is one of the rarest whale species in the world and it is thought to number about 370. The giant animals migrate, and usually arrive in Cape Cod Bay off Massachusetts early in the winter and stay until around the middle of May. Scientists with the Center for Coastal Studies in Provincetown, Massachusetts, said they observed the first two right whales of the season in the bay on Nov. 18, and the animals are finding abundant food. The scientists said the animals were observed feeding on tiny organisms near the surface of the water, which is a behavior they don't usually exhibit until much later in the season. Water samples collected in the path of the right whales showed a combination of the microscopic crustaceans the whales love to eat, said Christy Hudak, a researcher with the center. One of the crustaceans is Calanus finmarchicus, an oil-rich species that is critical to whale health, Hudak said. "Although Calanus was not the dominant species in the sample, its presence in higher numbers is unusual for this time of year and it will be exciting to see if the food resource this year will prove a banner season for right whales in Cape Cod Bay," Hudak said. The presence of abundant food off New England is the second piece of positive news for the right whales in recent weeks. A group of researchers reported in October that the whale's population increased about 4% from 2020 to 2023. The whale's population fell by about 25% from 2010 to 2020, raising concerns about potential extinction among scientists and conservationists. Conservationists warned that the species is still in dire need of protection despite recent encouraging signs. The species includes fewer than 70 reproductively active females, which "further highlights the urgent need for conservation efforts," the Clearwater Marine Aquarium said in a statement. The whales are threatened by entanglement in commercial fishing gear and collisions with large ships. Scientists have said that the warming of the ocean has caused the whales to sometimes stray from protected zones in search of food, and that makes them more vulnerable to those threats. The whales were abundant off New England generations ago, but they were decimated during the commercial whaling era.>

Long-term study reveals warming climates threaten Florida scrub-jay -Because of warmer winters, Florida scrub-jays are now nesting one week earlier than they did in 1981. But these early birds are not always getting the worm. A new analysis of data from a long-term study, published in Ornithology, finds that warmer winters driven by climate change reduced the number of offspring raised annually by the federally threatened Florida scrub-jay by 25% since 1981. Warmer temperatures, the scientists hypothesize, make jay nests susceptible to predation by snakes for a longer period of the Florida spring than in the past. Researchers from Archbold Biological Station and the Cornell Lab of Ornithology examined 37 years of data to assess the impacts of warming on reproductive effort. From 1981 to 2018, the average winter temperature at Archbold Biological Station increased by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit. "There is significantly more snake activity in warmer weather," said Sahas Barve, lead author and director of avian ecology at Archbold, "and snakes are the primary nest predator." These losses are compounded by additional stresses. In an effort to produce young each season, Florida scrub-jays will keep building nests and laying more eggs after nests are lost to predators—"until they finally give up," said John Fitzpatrick, director emeritus of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology. "Despite increases in the number of nests built and eggs laid over the longer breeding season, Florida scrub-jays are not producing more young," said Fitzpatrick, co-author of the paper. "In the bird world, there is a well-known trade-off between the number of breeding attempts and longevity. The more breeding effort expended each year, the less likely the bird is to be alive five or 10 years later." "The idea that over the long-term jays are experiencing an average reduction in reproductive success along with reduction in longevity is alarming," Fitzpatrick said. The findings suggest that climate change could dampen the success of conservation efforts for this threatened species.>

Falcons exposed to heavy metals are a red flag for environmental health - Exposure to heavy metals compromises immune functions and reduces reproductive success in the peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus), according to a new paper by researchers working with the Sbarro Health Research Organization (SHRO) at Temple University in collaboration with the veterinary research group of the Department of Health Sciences at Magna Graecia University of Catanzaro, Italy. In addition, persistent chemicals like brominated flame retardants threaten their populations, underscoring the importance of these majestic raptors in monitoring pollution and highlighting the broader implications for wildlife, ecosystems, and human health.The peregrine falcon, renowned for its unparalleled speed and hunting prowess, emerges as a vital sentinel species for assessing hazardous toxins and exemplifying the intricate balance between human progress and environmental health. This apex predator, occupying a high position in the food chain, accumulates pollutants from its prey, offering critical insights into ecosystem integrity and contamination levels and emphasizing the urgent need for monitoring.Peregrine falcons have long been recognized for their susceptibility to environmental pollutants, making them an indispensable bioindicator. Historical declines in their populations, driven by the use of organochlorine pesticides such as DDT, spotlighted the devastating impact of human activities on wildlife. While regulatory measures facilitated their remarkable recovery, new challenges emerge as ecosystems contend with a growing variety of contaminants.Prof. Antonio Giordano and Dr. Giovanna Liguori have emphasized the critical role peregrine falcons play in studying the impact of pollution, as described in the research review, "Understanding Environmental Contamination Through the Lens of the Peregrine Falcon (Falco peregrinus)," published this month in the journal Environments."Our review highlights that peregrine falcons might serve as valuable models for investigating the impact of environmental contaminants on human health," says Antonio Giordano, M.D., Ph.D., Founder and Director of SHRO and Professor at Temple University."Given that numerous chemical substances detrimental to wildlife also pose risks to humans, monitoring peregrine falcon populations can contribute to predicting and mitigating contaminant-related diseases (e.g., neoplasia etc.). By analyzing contaminant levels in peregrine falcon tissues, researchers could assess potential risks to human populations inhabiting the same regions."

Biologists identify traits correlating with all bird extinctions since 1500 - Looking to inform the conservation of critically endangered bird species, University of Utah biologists have completed an analysis identifying traits that correlate with all 216 bird extinctions since 1500.Species most likely to go extinct sooner were endemic to islands, lacked the ability to fly, had larger bodies and sharply angled wings, and occupied ecologically specific niches, according to research published this month. The work appears in the journal Avian Research.

‘Elections don’t add water to the river’: Colorado River negotiations forge ahead amid Trump transition --The policymakers responsible for steering the Colorado River’s future say they will forge ahead with ongoing negotiations regardless of shifts in federal leadership, as a deadline to determine long-term conservation strategies looms near. “Elections don’t add water to the river,” John Entsminger, Nevada’s lead Colorado River negotiator, told The Hill. “The same problem we were facing on November 4, we’re facing today, and it’s the same problem we’ll be facing into the indefinite future.” “This river has a track record of working across Republican and Democratic administrations and getting big wins for everyone,” added Entsminger, who is also the general manager of the Southern Nevada Water Authority. The deadline concerns a long-anticipated update of the Colorado River’s operational guidelines, which are set to expire at the end of 2026. These 2007 interim rules govern conservation policies for the over-tapped, 1,450-mile river, which provides water to about 40 million people in the U.S. and Mexico Ahead of the forthcoming presidential transition, the Biden administration this week propelled the process of determining new guidelines forward — releasing a bullet-point list of five potential alternatives for the watershed’s long-term management. Alongside the publication, Interior Department officials also said they would provide further details about the options in an “alternatives report” next month, with the goal of keeping National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) procedures course. Speculation abounds as to whether the Biden administration’s decision to make the alternatives public at this stage was at all influenced by President-elect Trump’s victory in the recent presidential election.The list of alternatives revealed Wednesday and the forthcoming “alternatives report” are not required by NEPA but instead represent what Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Camille Touton described in a Wednesday press call as the “collective work” of the agency’s staff members. Officials in March had said they planned to release a NEPA-mandated draft environmental impact statement — which includes analyses of the alternatives — by the end of 2024, but the issuance of that document was since postponed to 2025. Megadrought conditions coupled with overconsumption have become increasing threats to the Colorado River’s two key reservoirs — Lake Powell and Lake Mead — and are putting pressure on negotiators to find a way to conserve the river’s dwindling reserves of water moving forward.The states that rely on the river are divided on the best way to do that in the long term, however.The domestic portion of the Colorado River watershed has historically been regarded as consisting of two halves: a Lower and an Upper basin, which respectively include California, Arizona and Nevada, and Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico.A 1922 compact granted annual water allocations of 7.5 million acre-feet to each basin, while a 1944 treaty then gave an additional 1.5 million acre-feet to Mexico. For reference, a typical suburban U.S. household uses about an acre-foot of water each year.Also spanning the region are 30 tribal nations, many of which have substantial rights to water within the broader totals. The Bureau of Reclamation had given the Colorado River states an early March 2024 deadline to submit a consensus-backed alternative for updated guidelines for the river’s management. That proposal was supposed to be analyzed within the NEPA-mandated environmental impact statement.But two days after the March 2024 deadline, rather than submitting a unified alternative, the basins published competing proposals.The Lower Basin states presented a document that included reductions of their own but advocated for cuts across the entire watershed — calculating storage capacity not just on the massive Lake Powell and Lake Mead, but also on five smaller reservoirs, including three in the Upper Basin. The Upper Basin states, meanwhile, released a plan that they said would account for real-time hydrological conditions in a region that depends on mountain snowpack for its water supply.The alternatives offered by the Bureau of Reclamation on Wednesday represent a range of management solutions, none of which precisely match either basin’s proposal.Within the list are four viable options as well as a fifth “no action” alternative, which officials described as a NEPA requirement that would revert to guidelines in place before 2007.While federal officials made clear on Wednesday that they did not have a preferred alternative, they said that Alternative 4, which includes elements of both the Upper and Lower Basin proposals, could help facilitate collaboration.While Trump has announced his Interior secretary pick, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R), he has yet to tap a candidate for Bureau of Reclamation commissioner. Entsminger acknowledged that whoever ultimately fills the roles of Reclamation commissioner and Interior assistant secretary for water and science could affect some operational details.

Climate-driven impacts on water in US West will raise the cost of grid decarbonization: Study --The western U.S.’s plans to decarbonize electricity grids by 2050 may be much more expensive than anticipated, as such targets fail to account for the effects of climate change on water resources, a new study has found. Shifts in water availability due to warming could decrease hydropower production by up to 23 percent by midcentury, while electricity demand could rise by 2 percent annually, according to the study, published Monday in Nature Communications. To bridge this gap, the western states would need to add up to 13 gigawatts of transmission capacity and up to 139 gigawatts of generating capacity between 2030 and 2050 — equivalent to almost three times California’s peak demand and costing about $150 billion, per the research. “Grid planning that ignores climate projections and water linkages underestimates the capacity and investment needed to achieve decarbonization and maintain grid reliability,” the authors stated. Today, hydropower comprises about 20 percent of annual average power production in the U.S. West, and electricity use for water makes up about 7 percent of electricity consumption, according to the study. In the future, not only may climate change and associated groundwater pumping decrease water availability, but adaptation measures such as desalination and water recycling can also be energy-intensive, the authors explained. “Failing to account for these changes in energy supply and demand via the water sector may overlook cascading vulnerabilities,” the researchers stated. Ignoring these threats could “jeopardize electricity system climate resilience, and make decarbonization goals elusive,” warned the authors, who partnered across multiple federal research laboratories, the University of California and the University of Toronto. To draw these conclusions, the scientists created simulations that connected the U.S. West’s water supplies and electricity systems. They then assessed how the region could adapt to various climate change scenarios from 2030 to 2050, amid a shift to carbon-free electricity sources. No matter which climate change scenario they evaluated, the researchers found that hydropower production plunged. A mix of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar, complemented by flexible battery storage and geothermal power, would be necessary to compensate for these losses, according to the study. At the same time, the authors observed that increased needs for air conditioning would drive up power demands, particularly in the Southwest. However, they noted that decreased electricity use for heating in the Pacific Northwest would offset this surge at least in part. Moving forward, the researchers stressed the importance of integrating robust adaptation strategies into the power sector, with an emphasis on diversifying capacity investments and allowing for more flexibility in policy planning. A failure on the part of grid planners to explicitly quantify how climate change and water interdependencies could impact electricity supply and demand could be detrimental to the region, the authors noted. Incorporating these factors into grid expansion models, they concluded, could play a critical role in ensuring “a climate-resilient and zero-emissions grid of the future.”

Four dead across U.S. West Coast as atmospheric river brings record rains and 20 landslides in California - The strongest atmospheric river of the season, driven by a bomb cyclone with a central pressure of 945 hPa, ravaged the U.S. West Coast on Wednesday, November 20, 2024, bringing unprecedented rainfall, flooding, and wind damage. Northern California bore the brunt of the storm, with 543.4 mm (21.39 inches) of rain recorded in Sonoma County and widespread flooding that stranded hundreds. Meanwhile, fierce winds of up to 206 km/h (128 mph) toppled trees and left communities without power.

• Four people lost their lives due to the storm: two in Northwest Washington caused by falling trees, and two in California due to flooding and rough seas.
• Over 1 million customers were left without power at the storm’s peak. As of early Sunday, November 24, 51 700 remained without power in Washington, over 6 000 in California, and approximately 133 in Oregon.
• Santa Rosa set a new three-day rainfall record with 322 mm (12.68 inches).
• Nearly 20 landslides occurred between Wednesday and Thursday, including a boulder falling on Highway 281 in Clearlake Riviera and rocks blocking lanes of Highway 20 in Saratoga Springs.

This was the strongest atmospheric river of the autumn season so far, drenching parts of California with up to 508 mm (20 inches) of rain. Up to 254 mm (10 inches) of rainfall fell in the Northern Bay Area, with over 508 mm (20 inches) recorded in Sonoma County. The Cazadero area in Sonoma County recorded 543.4 mm (21.39 inches) of total rain between Wednesday and Friday. Meanwhile, Healdsburg recorded 450.9 mm (17.75 inches) of rain during the three-day stretch. Santa Rosa recorded 322 mm (12.68 inches), setting a new three-day rain record, surpassing the previous record of approximately 254 mm (10 inches) set in October 2021. The heavy rains caused intense flooding across California, with floodwaters stranding around 300 people at a hotel and clinic in Santa Rosa on Thursday, November 21. Several water rescues were conducted as vehicles became trapped in up to 0.91 m (3 feet) of floodwaters in some areas. Several roads were closed between Santa Rosa and Windsor due to flooding, and Sonoma County Sheriff’s deputies reported between 7 and 10 water rescues along Mark West Springs Road. The flooding also triggered several landslides, with nearly 20 occurring between Wednesday and Thursday. A boulder fell onto Highway 281 in Clearlake Riviera, causing an accident. Rocks also blocked lanes of Highway 20 in Saratoga Springs. Flood warnings were issued for the San Francisco area, with rain gauges measuring 102 mm (4 inches) in some spots. Floodwaters stranded cars on Interstate 180 in San Francisco and Interstate 580 in Oakland, along with US 101 and California Route 17 in the South Bay. Strong winds accompanied the atmospheric river. A coastal wind gauge at Mattole Road in Humboldt County, south of Eureka, recorded a gust of 158 km/h (98 mph) on Friday morning. At elevation, Palisades Tahoe recorded a gust of 206 km/h (128 mph) at its summit, which is 2 621 m (8 600 feet) above sea level. An 18.3 m (60-foot)-tall tree toppled at Sansome and Pacific Streets in San Francisco due to strong winds, damaging a car underneath it. The Siskiyou and Sierra Nevada regions recorded heavy snow during the event. Castle Peak received 508 mm (20 inches) of snow through 04:00 local time (LT) on Thursday, while Soda Springs received 432 mm (17 inches), and Kingvale recorded 279 mm (11 inches). The Russian River in Guerneville overflowed flooding the surrounding areas on Friday, November 22. Efforts to restore power are expected to last a few days. As of early Sunday, November 24, 51 700 customers remained without power in Washington, over 6 000 in California, and approximately 133 in Oregon. By 16:49 UTC on November 24, 36 800 customers were still without power in Washington. “This system was so strong that it was comparable to a hurricane and did unprecedented damage to our high-voltage transmission system—the poles and wires that carry electricity from where it is produced to the communities we serve. Without fixing those lines first, we cannot get power back into many neighborhoods. Much of this work takes place in hard-to-reach, remote parts of western Washington,” said Puget Sound Energy, the largest energy provider in Washington State.

Early season snow storm dumps 61 cm (2 feet) of snow in northeastern U.S. - A powerful early-season snowstorm blanketed the Central and Northern Appalachians from November 20 to November 23, 2024, dumping up to 61 cm (2 feet) of snow in some areas, and disrupting communities across several northeastern states. An early-season snowstorm hit the Central and Northern Appalachians between November 20 and November 23, resulting in snowfall totals of 30 – 61 cm (1 – 2 feet) across the higher elevations of West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, and northern New Jersey during a three-day period. In Pennsylvania, a total of 63.5 cm (25 inches) of snow was reported in Tyrone, while 53.3 cm (21 inches) was recorded at Paupack, and 50.8 cm (20 inches) was recorded at Bear Creek. High Point in New Jersey also recorded 50.8 cm (20 inches) of snow. In New York, 47.2 cm (18.6 inches) of snow was recorded at Tannersville, while 43.4 cm (17.1 inches) was recorded at Franklin. In Virginia, 41.9 cm (16.5 inches) of snow was recorded at Hightown, and 38.4 cm (15.1 inches) was recorded in Grantsville, Maryland. Thomas in West Virginia recorded 38.1 cm (15 inches) of snow, while Roan Mountain in Tennessee recorded 20.3 cm (8 inches), and 17.8 cm (7 inches) was recorded at Grandfather Mountain in North Carolina.s

5 000 vehicles stranded, 36 injured as Storm Caetano hits France - Storm Caetano swept through France on Thursday, November 21, 2024, bringing an unseasonal winter episode with winds reaching 131 km/h (81 mph) and snowfall of up to 16 cm (6.3 inches) and freezing temperatures as low as -10.8 °C (12.6 °F). Over 250 000 homes were left without electricity due to the storm’s strong winds and severe weather conditions. Hazardous road conditions caused a multi-vehicle accident on Route A6B near Paris, involving a bus, four cars, and a motorbike. Thirty-six people were injured, including five with severe injuries requiring hospitalization. Traffic came to a standstill on key highways like the A36, where 5 000 vehicles were stranded due to snow. Train services in northern regions were also significantly affected. Capital Paris experienced its highest November snowfall in 56 years. Storm Caetano continued to affect the Corsica and Pyrenees regions on Friday, November 22. The storm left over 250 000 homes without power and caused severe traffic disruptions across the country. An accident occurred on Route A6B near Paris, where a bus overturned, injuring 36 people, five of whom were severely injured and hospitalized. Four cars and a motorbike were also involved in the accident. Traffic was halted along the A28 and A36 motorways, leaving hundreds of trucks stranded due to heavy snowfall in eastern France. By 11:00 local time (LT) on Friday, approximately 5 000 vehicles were stuck on the A36. Lorries were banned on the A36 until 14:00 LT on Friday, leaving them stranded. Drivers were advised to avoid traveling on the route. Several trains were canceled, and services were reduced in the northern region, particularly in Normandy. Conditions were expected to improve throughout Friday as temperatures rise and snow melts. A sharp increase in temperatures is forecast for Sunday, November 24. Under the influence of descending polar air, temperatures dropped significantly, with freezing conditions recorded in some areas on Friday morning. The lowest temperature was -10.8 °C (12.6 °F) in Bourdons-sur-Rognon, followed by -8.4 °C (16.9 °F) in Wy-dit, Vexin. Significant snowfall was recorded nationwide, with snow reported from Normandy to Paris and the Grand Est region. Paris recorded 4 cm (1.57 inches) of snow on Thursday, marking the highest November snowfall in 56 years. The Eiffel Tower was closed to visitors due to snow accumulation.

Two reported dead as Storm Bert hits UK - Storm Bert has wreaked havoc across the UK, leaving 60 000 homes in Northern Ireland without power on Saturday, November 23, 2024, disrupting flights, and causing severe flooding and snowstorms across multiple regions. Authorities have issued Amber and Yellow Warnings for snow, ice, and flooding across the UK as Bert continues to bring hazardous conditions, disrupting transport and threatening safety. Two people were reported dead, as of late Saturday afternoon (LT). Amber warnings for heavy snow and ice were issued for Scotland, Yorkshire, and northeast England, while Yellow warnings for wind, rain, and snow remain in effect for broader regions. Winds reaching up to 129 km/h (80 mph) and heavy rain, amounting to nearly a month’s worth in some areas, have led to localized flooding, particularly in Wales and southwest England. At least 2 people have been reported dead during the storm. Hampshire Police reported one death after a tree fell onto a car on the A34 highway southbound near Winchester on Saturday morning. Another person, a man in his 60s who was driving a black Mercedes was confirmed dead at the scene on the A34 southbound carriageway, between Kings Worthy and Winnall. The incident is still being investigated. The storm caused severe disruption to traffic and flights, with a British Airways flight to Heathrow canceled. Several flights were disrupted at Newcastle Airport due to heavy snow in the North East. Severe weather alerts were issued for multiple national highways due to snow affecting Yorkshire and northeast England, warning of blizzard conditions and prolonged heavy snow. “Storm Bert will bring rain and strong winds north-eastwards on Saturday between 05:00 and 15:00, with the rain preceded by a period of disruptive snow over parts of northeast England,” a statement from the Met Office said. An Amber alert for heavy snow and ice was in place until 17:00 on Saturday across Scotland, with 10 – 20 cm (4 – 8 inches) likely on the ground above 200 m (656 feet) and potentially 20 – 40 cm (8 – 16 inches) on hills above 400 m (1 312 feet). A second Amber warning was in place until midday on Saturday, covering parts of Yorkshire and northeast England. Yellow warnings for wind, rain, and snow are in place until 09:00 on Sunday, November 24, for broader areas of these regions. The weather warning covers parts of Angus, Perth and Kinross, Stirlingshire, Aberdeenshire, parts of the Highlands, Argyll and Bute, the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, East Ayrshire, and South Lanarkshire. “The melting snow and heavy rain could lead to localized flooding, particularly in Wales and the southwest, especially over south-facing hills. These areas are likely to experience gales and risks from both wind and rain,” said Aidan McGivern, a meteorologist at the Met Office. Flood warnings and 49 flood alerts have been issued across parts of the country. The Accrington and Oswaldwistle Rivers in Lancashire are under a flood warning, with authorities urging residents to take immediate action. Ireland, the Feale River overflowed, causing flooding in Listowel town on Saturday. Severe flooding in Abbeyfeale resulted in substantial property damage, with a soccer club submerged in 30 cm (11.8 inches) of water. Winds of up to 129 km/h (80 mph) are expected in parts of the country during the weekend as the storm brings a multi-wave impact. Strong winds are forecast for the southern coast, with gusts exceeding 113 km/h (70 mph) in places. Wind warnings cover Scotland from 05:00 until 19:00 on Saturday. Some regions are forecast to receive almost a month’s worth of rain over the weekend. Flooding due to heavy rainfall has already caused severe railway disruptions across Northern Ireland.

Flash floods and landslides claim 16 lives, leave 6 missing in Sumatra, Indonesia - Flash floods and landslides triggered by heavy torrential rains struck Indonesia’s island of Sumatra on Saturday, November 23, leaving at least 16 people dead, 18 injured and 6 missing. Flash floods and landslides struck the island of Sumatra on Saturday night, resulting in 16 deaths and 18 injuries, with six individuals reported missing. According to Sri Wahyuni Pancasilawati, head of the agency’s emergency, equipment, and logistics unit, the flash floods in Deli Serdang Regency swept away four homes and one religious building. Torrential rains over the weekend caused mud, rocks, and trees to tumble down a mountain, while rivers burst their banks, devastating four hilly districts in North Sumatra province by washing away houses and destroying farms. According to Puput Mashuri, head of the local disaster management agency, at least 10 homes were swept away in the South Tapanuli district, and approximately 150 houses and buildings were damaged. Police, soldiers, and rescue workers employed excavators, farm equipment, and their bare hands to search for the dead and missing in Semangat Gunung, a resort area in Karo district, according to Juspri M. Nadeak, head of the local disaster management agency.

Powerful cold wave brings record lows and snow to China - A powerful cold wave swept through northeastern China from Monday through Tuesday, November 25 to 26, 2024, bringing Heilongjiang’s heaviest snowstorm of the year. Hegang, a city in the province, received 53 mm (2.1 inches) of snow in just 24 hours, leading to a total accumulation of 37 cm (14.6 inches). Thousands of personnel and machines were mobilized to clear the snow and ensure public safety as temperatures dropped sharply. Northeastern China was hit by a severe cold wave from November 25 to 26, with temperatures plunging to as low as -33.9 °C (-29.0 °F). Authorities issued a Yellow alert for the region and mobilized over 35 000 personnel, 5 121 snow-clearing vehicles, and more than 4 600 snow-removal machines to manage the snow and ice accumulation caused by the cold wave. A Yellow alert was issued for northeastern China as a cold wave swept through the region from Monday to Tuesday, November 26. Nearly half of the weather stations in the country recorded new low temperatures, with the lowest reaching -33.9 °C (-29.0 °F) in some areas. Huzhong station broke its snow depth record, receiving 46 cm (18.1 inches) of snow during the cold wave. Heilongjiang’s Hegang experienced its heaviest snowstorm of the year, receiving approximately 53 mm (2.1 inches) of snowfall within 24 hours between Monday and Tuesday, resulting in a total snow accumulation of about 37 cm (15 inches) in the region. Visuals shared online depict several areas buried under snow. The Chinese Meteorological Agency (CMA) had begun issuing alerts for the cold wave as early as Sunday, November 24. Beijing was placed under a Blue Cold Wave Alert, anticipating a significant temperature drop throughout the week. Over 35 000 personnel, 5 121 snow-clearing vehicles, and more than 4 600 snow-removal machines were placed on standby to manage snow and ice accumulation.

Seoul’s worst snowstorm since 1972 disrupts travel across South Korea - (3 videos) Seoul’s first snow of the season turned into a historic November snowstorm, dumping record-breaking snow over Seoul on Wednesday, November 27, 2024. The first snow of the season brought the worst November snowstorm to Seoul on Wednesday, November 27. At 07:00 local time (LT), the city recorded approximately 16.5 cm (6.5 inches) of snow, breaking its previous November snow record of 12.4 cm (4.9 inches), set on November 28, 1972. This marked the highest November snowfall in Seoul since records began in 1907. Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) reported that 20 cm (7.8 inches) of snow fell in northern Seoul and surrounding areas, while the central, eastern, and southwestern regions recorded approximately 10 – 23 cm (3.9 – 9.1 inches). A heavy snow warning was issued in several regions, urging citizens to avoid travel, limit vehicle use, and stay alert for falling trees. Approximately 150 homes in Seoul experienced power outages on Wednesday morning due to fallen trees. Several accidents occurred as a result of heavy snow accumulation on roads, and main roads were closed for maintenance, causing significant traffic congestion. Travel across South Korea was severely disrupted, with at least 220 flights canceled nationwide and 90 ferries ordered to remain at the port. Additionally, hundreds of hiking trails were closed due to the snow. The snowfall resulted from a significant temperature difference between the sea surface and cold air, explained Youn Ki-han, Director of Seoul’s Meteorology and Forecast Division. “Over the West Sea, moisture forms, and when cold air from the north moves down, as it typically does, the temperature difference is smaller if the West Sea is also cold, as in previous years,” said Youn. “The strong snow was consistently carried by the westerly winds, pushing it into the Seoul metropolitan area,” he added. Snowfall is forecast to continue across most of the country until Thursday noon, November 28, with an additional 20 cm (7.8 inches) expected in Seoul.

Severe floods hit southern Thailand, affecting over 240 000 households - Floods caused by continuous heavy rains have severely impacted 68 districts in seven provinces in southern Thailand, including Nakhon Si Thammarat, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, Phatthalung, and Satun. Among these provinces, Songkhla has been particularly hard-hit, with its governor officially declaring all 16 districts as disaster zones on Friday, November 29, 2024. At least 4 people have been killed and over 240 000 households have been affected after heavy rains over the past couple of days caused severe flooding in southern Thailand. According to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, floods affected 68 districts in Nakhon Si Thammarat, Phatthalung, Satun, Songkhla, Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. In the southern province of Songkhla, flooding was reported in 671 villages across all 16 districts, affecting more than 95 000 people from 49 000 households On Friday, November 29, the Songkhla governor declared all districts as disaster zones. The worst affected district in the province is Na Thawee district, where 13 873 households were affected, followed by Hat Yai with 6 640 households, Khlong Hoi Khong with 6 547, Chana with 4 646, Thepha with 4 361, Sadao with 3 901 households and Muang with 3 384. The flooding has severely affected the tourism sector in Songkhla which many Malaysians had previously planned to visit. Songchai Mungprasithichai, President of the Songkhla Tourism Promotion Association noted that the cancellations impacted both group and individual travel. “Both tour groups and individual tourists canceled their trips to Hat Yai during this weekend and next weekend. Even though Hat Yai was not affected, surrounding districts were inundated,” Mungprasithichai stated. Hat Yai’s hotels were about 70% full on weekends before the flooding. Floods in nearby areas have now led to cancellations affecting flights and travel through border checkpoints. Tourism operators expressed hope that the conditions might improve in time for the December holidays.

Landslides bury 40 homes in six villages, claim at least 13 lives in Bulambuli, Uganda - Landslides triggered by heavy rains on Wednesday night, November 27, 2024, in Uganda’s mountainous Bulambuli District buried at least 40 homes across six villages and claimed 13 lives. The death toll could potentially rise to 30, according to the Ugandan Red Cross Society. Most of the victims recovered so far were children. At least 13 people lost their lives and 40 homes in six villages were buried after a series of landslides hit Uganda, according to reports by relief officials from the Ugandan Red Cross Society on Thursday. The landslides were triggered by heavy rains on the night of Wednesday, November 27, in the mountainous district of Bulambuli, where such events are common. The district is located approximately 280 km (173 miles) east of the capital, Kampala. The affected area covers roughly 20 ha (50 acres), including homesteads and farmlands downhill. According to a local newspaper, most of the bodies recovered were those of children.

5 350 aftershocks recorded in Cuba following damaging M6.8 quake on November 10 – (video) As many as 5 350 aftershocks have shaken Cuba since the M6.8 earthquake on November 10, 2024, with 125 of these noticeable to the public, according to the National Center for Seismological Research (CENAIS). 172 earthquakes were recorded between November 21 and 22, primarily in the Pilón-Chivirico region, ranging from M1.1 to M4.0. According to data provided by CENAIS, a total of 5 350 aftershocks have been recorded as of November 22, following a shallow M6.8 earthquake that struck Granma Province, Cuba on November 10. At least 125 of the aftershocks were noticeable to the public, with the most significant aftershock registered by the USGS as M4.6 at 18:45 UTC on November 10 — two hours after the mainshock. Most of the aftershocks have been minor and despite their intensity and quantity, no significant damage has been reported. The initial M6.8 earthquake on November 10, however, caused significant damage across the country, with videos circulating on social media showing collapsed homes and severely damaged buildings due to the tremors. The earthquake had a maximum Modified Mercalli intensity of VIII (Severe), with about 2.1 million people feeling moderate shaking or stronger. Light shaking was also felt in Jamaica and western Haiti, with reports from Florida and the Cayman Islands. At least 7 people, including 2 minors, were injured, over 2 000 homes were damaged and 26 were destroyed. CENAIS reported over 2 000 damaged homes and 26 destroyed, as well as structural impacts on 30 healthcare facilities and 40 educational institutions, as of November 13. The seismic event also triggered a series of over 1 130 aftershocks over the next 48 hours, with 47 of them felt in areas like Pilón in Granma. More than 12 000 people were left without power. By November 17, the number of damaged homes rose to 5 116 and the number of destroyed to 28. In addition, 474 public buildings, a dock, and the Faro Vargas lighthouse were damaged. The quake severely impacted the municipalities of Pilon, Media Luna, and Campechuela. Pilon experienced the worst effects, including house collapses, cracked walls, and fallen ceiling tiles in key facilities such as the Comandante Félix Lugones Hospital. A 5-year-old girl and a 48-year-old woman sustained injuries. Santiago de Cuba was impacted to a lesser extent but still recorded structural damage to 234 homes, mostly involving compromised walls, roofs, and ceilings. According to CENAIS, around 172 earthquakes were recorded across Cuba between November 21 and 22. Of these, 160 occurred in the Pilón-Chivirico area, ranging from M1.1 to M4.0. In Santiago-Bacano, 11 earthquakes ranging from M0.8 to M2.1 were recorded, while one M2.3 event was recorded at Moa Purial. An M4.2 earthquake was felt across Granma and Santiago de Cuba on Tuesday, November 19. Another M4.0 earthquake occurred on Thursday, November 21, with the epicenter located 19 km (11.8 miles) southeast of Pilón.

Iceland deploys water cannons to fight lava, Reykjanes Peninsula – (2 flaming videos) Authorities in Iceland have deployed at least 12 water cannons on the L3 defense wall to cool a 360 m (1 181 feet) large section of lava and protect critical infrastructure, including the Svartsengi geothermal facility and the Njarðvíkuraeð hot water pipeline, which is important for the Suðurnesj region. Initial testing on one pump was successful, and the operation will begin with six eastern cannons, followed by the remaining units. The cooling process is expected to take several days. Lava flows continued to pressure defense dikes in Svartsengi and Blaa Lonið on November 24. Gas pollution remains a major concern, with elevated sulfur dioxide levels prompting health warnings for nearby populations. Air pollution has been reported near Grindavík, with levels potentially hazardous for individuals sensitive to air quality issues, prompting authorities to advise residents in nearby areas to keep windows closed, turn off air conditioning systems, and limit strenuous outdoor activities. Authorities have also strongly urged the public to avoid the eruption site. The situation escalated on November 23 when the lava, flowing westward, put additional pressure on the defense dikes at Svartsengi. The flow from the eruption also threatened the hot water infrastructure serving the Suðurnesj region, potentially disrupting delivery to residents and businesses. Officials advised customers to conserve hot water as a precautionary measure. Cooling operations began using water cannons last night, followed by sulfur dioxide levels rising and impacting adjacent villages. The situation was uncertain last night, but the lava cooling process has gone better than expected, even under tough conditions, according to Helga Hjörleifsson, the lava cooling manager. Hjörleifsson said 12 people have been working hard and struggling to cool the lava. “It has exceeded expectations as we have had the support of great people from the fire departments around here. And it’s just incredibly cool,” Hjörleifsson said. Earlier, the lava reached the Blue Lagoon parking lot of the Blue Lagoon geothermal spa resort after crossing Grindavíkurveg, continuing westward toward Svartsengi, on November 21. The lava flow speed was estimated to be more than 100 m per hour (328 feet per hour). Around 200 people were evacuated from the resort, along with those who had returned to their houses after the prior eruption. Apart from that, a service building was also reported to be destroyed by the ongoing lava flow. Grindavik, located only 15 km (9 miles) from the eruption site, was reported to be at high risk as the lava flows endangered infrastructure near the Blue Lagoon, Svartsengi’s geothermal facilities, and the Njarðvikuraeð hot water pipe, which is important for the Suðurnesj region. No casualties had been reported as of Thursday, November 21, and officials had assured there was no immediate threat to the region. While flights continued without disruption, road closures were implemented nearby. Gas pollution was expected to spread south to Grindavik, Svartsengi, and Reykjanesbaer, raising health concerns. The Reykjanes Peninsula has been experiencing volcanic activity since December 2023, caused by magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi. The eruption is being tracked via satellite imaging, GPS, aircraft surveillance, and ground-based measurements. This eruption marks the latest in a series of volcanic events that have affected the Reykjanes Peninsula, following eruptions in December 2023, February, March, May, and August 2024. As of Sunday, November 24, the eruption, which began on November 20, is still ongoing, with authorities continuously monitoring the situation and providing updates on safety measures and recommendations. Three craters are active now and the flow of lava toward the dykes at Svartsengi has decreased. However, the situation remains sensitive regarding the possible impact on the infrastructure at Svartsengi, the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) said.

Steady eruption near Grindavík, Iceland - Eruptive activity near Grindavik, Iceland, remains steady on November 28, 2024, with the eruption continuing from a single vent and lava flowing east and southeast. Gas pollution caused by northeast winds at 35 – 55 km/h (20 – 35 mph) was moving toward Grindavík today and was forecast to spread to nearby areas as the weather patterns change. The fissure opening around midnight taken from the Coast Guard helicopter. Lights in the town of Grindavík seen in the distance on November 28, 2024. The lava field near Fagradalsfjall has expanded slightly but continues to thicken. Volcanic tremor has remained stable alongside eruptive activity in the vent while the rate of subsidence around Svartsengi has significantly reduced. However, because daily changes are minor, the trend of deformation measurements must be monitored over the next several days to determine whether the uplift has resumed. Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland molten lava approaches infrastructure on November 21, 2024 Molten lava approaches infrastructure, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland on November 21, 2024. Image credit: IMO The eruption site has been limited to a single active vent of Stóra-Skógfell with lava flowing eastward. Flows beneath the solid crust have been found near the protective wells at Svartsengi and the Blue Lagoon geothermal spa. The eruption tremors have stabilized and the ground subsidence around Svartsengi has slowed down on November 28. On November 27, IMO issued an updated hazard assessment, valid until 15:00 on November 29, assuming no significant changes. Based on the eruption’s development over the past few days and the gas dispersion forecast, the hazard assessment has been revised from the previous version. The main changes involve Zone 1 (Svartsengi), where the overall hazard level is now assessed as considerable (amber) instead of high (red), and Zone 4 (Grindavík), where the overall hazard level has been downgraded from considerable (amber) to moderate (yellow). In Zone 1 (Svartsengi), the risk of lava flow and gas pollution remains high, but the risk of tephra fall has been downgraded to moderate from considerable. For Zone 4 (Grindavík), the only change is that the risk of gas pollution is now assessed as “considerable,” down from “very high.” According to the gas dispersion forecast, there is a likelihood of gas pollution in Grindavík on November 29.

M9.4 solar flare erupts beyond northeastern limb –- A strong solar flare measuring M9.4 erupted beyond the Sun’s northeastern limb at 07:42 UTC on November 25, 2024. The event started at 07:24 and ended at 08:03 UTC. A 10cm Radio Burts (Tenflare), lasting 3 minutes and with a peak flux of 210 sfu, was registered from 07:33 to 07:36 UTC. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. This region also produced M1.1 at 20:22 UTC on November 24. The location of this region does not favor Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, this will change in the days ahead as the region moves toward the center of the solar disk. Additionally, beginning at approximately 01:48 UTC on November 25, a filament eruption, centered near S45E18, was observed in GOES-16 304 angstroms imagery. This event was modeled and returned as a miss below Earth’s orbit. “Any glancing influence would likely materialize on November 29, but confidence is low in this outcome. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery,” NOAA SWPC forecasters said at 12:30 UTC today.

COP29 ends with empty deal, with 2024 set to be warmest year on human recordThe final deal coming out of the latest international climate change conference, COP29, which ended Sunday in Baku, Azerbaijan, is another empty agreement. It exposes the inability of the world’s capitalist governments to abate rising greenhouse gas emissions and combat the ongoing and accelerating ecological crisis caused by global warming. The main announcement is the so-called Baku Finance Goal, a “commitment” by developed countries of $300 billion a year to developing countries by 2035, and the upward scaling of that amount to $1.35 trillion using public and private sources. If such funds had been dedicated to dealing with climate change 40 years ago, those resources would have likely been adequate to avert its worst impacts. And if the warnings about the continued emission of greenhouse gases that were made for internal use by fossil fuel companies like ExxonMobil and stated publicly to Congress by scientists like Carl Sagan had been heeded, global temperatures would have peaked in the mid-2000s and the phrase “extreme weather” would have never entered humanity’s lexicon. But today such sums are a drop in the bucket. An article published in Nature this year estimates that by 2035 there will be a permanent income reduction globally as a result of climate change amounting to more than $10 trillion a year in 2005 dollars. The article puts the cost of climate change by 2049 at $38 trillion to $59 trillion annually. The skyrocketing costs are a direct result of the the lack of any mitigation efforts for decades combined with increased burning of fossil fuels. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has gone up from about 340 parts per million in 1984 to around 425 parts per million today. Per capita CO2 emissions have risen from 4.1 trillion tons to 4.7 trillion tons annually. Sea levels have risen 8 to 9 inches since 1880. Now, the latest reports from Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, which measures the rise in global temperatures using a baseline from 1850-1900, indicate it is “virtually certain” that the annual temperature in 2024 will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level, and will likely be more than 1.55 degrees Celsius warmer. The past 15 out of 16 months have been 1.5 degrees warmer than the pre-industrial average. October was 1.65 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial level, the second-warmest October recorded, exceeded only by October 2023. The past 12 months have witnessed an average temperature increase of 1.62 degrees Celsius. According to Copernicus, “The average temperature anomaly for the rest of 2024 would have to drop to almost zero for 2024 to not be the warmest year.” The dangers of rising temperatures are reflected in last month’s Emissions Gap Report from the United Nations Environment Programme, which notes that there must be a 42 percent cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to have any chance of bringing warming to below 1.5 degrees Celsius. It also warns that, even if the full implementation of reductions already agreed upon were actually put into place, warming would still reach 2.6 degrees Celsius. A continuation of the present level of emissions will see a temperature rise of 3.1 degrees Celsius. And as the world has witnessed over the past decade, even a warming of less than 1.5 degrees Celsius brings with it enormous levels of death and destruction. In just the United States, there have been 24 extreme weather events that have cost at least $1 billion. Worldwide, the damage reaches hundreds of billions every year, with millions displaced and tens of thousands dead. Very little of these issues, and the real costs involved, made their way into the discourse at Baku. Tine Stege, Marshall Islands climate envoy, noted, “We are leaving with a small portion of the funding climate-vulnerable countries urgently need. It isn’t nearly enough.” If global warming increases to 2 degrees Celsius, it is likely that the Marshall Islands, as well as other island nations, will simply disappear under the ocean as sea levels continue to rise.

Americans Buy Ever Bigger, More Powerful, More Fuel-Efficient Trucks, SUVs & Cars. EVs Escalate the Horsepower War -By Wolf Richter - Overall fuel economy of passenger vehicles sold in the US of the model year 2024 rose to a record of 28.0 “real world” MPG, according to data released by the EPA today. Over the five model years since 2019, average fuel economy has surged by 3.1 MPG, or by +12% (red line).The standout over the past few years was the category of “Car SUV” (light blue), whose average MPG spiked by 47% since the 2019 model year. They’re SUVs based on a car chassis and include the #2 bestseller of all models in the US, the Tesla Model Y, whose sales exploded since production started in 2020. Other EVs in that category have also come along. EVs are far more efficient than ICE vehicles (including hybrids). The Model Y for 2024 has an equivalent fuel economy of 113.8 “real world MPG,” and the average for all EVs for the 2023 model year was 106.7 MPG, according to the EPA today.For the 2024 model year, progress in the car SUV category flattened out after the spike, while the MPG in all other categories continued to tick higher. The data comes from the EPA’s Automotive Trends Reportfor 2024, released today. The EPA collected this data from automakers for vehicles produced for the US. The EPA divides vehicles into five basic categories: Sedan, “car SUV,” minivan/van, pickup, and “truck SUV” (SUV that by weight or by chassis is closer to a truck than a car).The longer-term trends boil d own to this: more fuel-efficient, more powerful, and heavier.Overall average horsepower for the 2024 model year rose to a record 267 hp, from 245 hp in the 2019 model year (red in the chart below).Since 1981, average horsepower has increased by 161%, from the low of 102 hp for the 1981 model year, the nadir of US auto design, when automakers were struggling with emission control requirements. Horsepower started rising again with fuel injection and electronic engine management systems that became more common in the mid-1980s.Pickups dominate in the horsepower war. The model year 2011 was when they averaged over 300 hp for the first time. For the model year 2024, the average rose to a new record of 347 hp.EV pickup truck production and sales are ramping up: Ford F-150 Lightning, Tesla Cybertruck, Rivian R1T, and GM’s Silverado EV and Sierra EV currently start with close to 600 hp and go up from there, which is nuts. But they’re new arrivals and don’t weigh in the data yet. As production volume and sales build over the next few years, they will push the horsepower averages even higher.Overall market share of EVs rose to 9.0% in Q3, and their increased market share will be pushing the horsepower readings even higher going forward.

Biden EPA Takes Final Swipe at Gas-Fired Power with New NOx Reg -Marcellus Drilling News -- In the spirit of doing the maximum amount of damage to the fossil fuel industry before being pried out of their cushy offices in the D.C. swamp, the Biden EPA last week proposed yet another onerous new regulation aimed at strangling natural gas-fired power plants. This latest attack ups the limits on emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) from most new, modified, and reconstructed gas-fired power plants. It’s a safe bet that the incoming Trump EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin, will withdraw the proposed regulation before it can be implemented. So, at least there’s that. However, the new reg comes from a “sue-and-settle” court case with the odious Sierra Club in 2022 that requires a new reg to be in place by Nov. 2025.

Utica Oil E&P Infinity Natural Resources' IPO Gains 7 More Bankers - Seven more investment bankers have signed on as managers of Utica oil producer Infinity Natural Resources’ IPO, according to an updated S-1 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Citigroup, Raymond James and RBC Capital Markets were named in the initial filing Oct. 4 as the offering’s joint book-running managers. Since then, Infinity reported Nov. 27 that more have joined—Keybanc Capital Markets and Stephens as senior co-managers; Comerica Securities, First Citizens Capital Securities and BTIG as co-managers; and BOK Financial Securities and Zions Capital Markets as junior co-managers. The number of shares Infinity estimates it will offer in the IPO or an estimated price range have not yet been provided in its SEC filings. The stock is to trade as INR on the NYSE. Meaningful deal-price comparisons for the Utica oil window on a per-flowing-boe basis are not available as most operators’ entry has been through boots-on-the-ground leasing and acquisitions of mostly undeveloped property. The Infinity IPO is expected to provide a first-look at the public market’s valuation of the Utica oil play. Tim Parker, CTO for privately held Encino Energy, told Hart Energy in early November that delineation is still underway for the new play as “we're actively pushing it updip and we're not to the limit of that yet—or we don't think we are.”When Encino, which is Ohio’s No. 1 oil producer now with 43,000 bbl/d, entered the play in 2018, “We didn't know how far updip it was going to go. We still don't. It's getting bigger, still.” Shown to date, though, is that the economic width of the more than 140-mile north-to-south oily fairway is at least 15 miles and “maybe as much as 25,” he said.Publicly held EOG Resources, which joined in the play in 2022, reported earlier this month that it was sending a second rig to its leasehold there and putting a frac spread to work full-time.It had been delineating its leasehold with an initial 25 wells, one rig and a part-time frac spread. It brought nine more Utica wells on in third-quarter 2024, taking its new-drill dataset in the play to 25 wells. Backed by energy-focused private-equity firms Pearl Energy Investments and NGP, Morgantown, West Virginia-based Infinity entered the Marcellus play in 2018 in southwestern Pennsylvania. But the IPO is expected to generate the greatest interest in Infinity’s oily Utica shale asset in Ohio where it is producing 7,110 bbl/d from some of its 59,992 net acres to date, up from 300 bbl/d that the initial footprint was producing at the time of entry in 2021.Among all operators in the oil-weighted Utica, 297 wells have been brought online since 2019, Infinity reported in the S-1, “delineating the core of the play located in Carroll, Tuscarawas, Harrison, Guernsey, Noble, Muskingum and Morgan counties.” Among operators’ new wells beginning in 2021, first-90-day IPs have averaged 902 bbl/d on a 15,000-ft-lateral basis among the 208 wells that were online at least 90 days through this past September, “making the volatile oil window one of the leading oil resource plays in the Lower 48,” Infinity reported. Among Ohio’s 17 operators, several are focused on the Utica’s gas-rich and NGL-rich fairways while a handful are currently surfacing barrels from its oil window, bringing the state’s oil output to average 88,040 bbl/d in the second quarter. (Source: Hart Energy via Ohio Department of Natural Resources well data.) “When combined with the play’s low operating costs, low water production and low drilling costs, the Utica’s volatile oil window maintains one of the lowest breakeven costs among all oil resource plays in the United States,” it added. Of its Ohio Utica leasehold, 39,815 net acres were picked up in October of 2023 from Utica Resource Ventures and PEO Ohio for $279 million in Washington, Morgan, Noble and Guernsey counties, including 54 existing horizontals. Earlier this year, it added 5,705 net acres under Salt Fork State Park in Guernsey County in a state lease sale.

DEP Finds Shale Gas Wastewater Pipeline Sprayed & Leaked 12,600+ Gallons For Nearly 3 Hours In Gilmore Twp., Greene County - On September 11, 2024, DEP did an inspection of the NITMH023 shale gas wastewater pipeline in Gilmore Township, Greene County in response to a notification by EQM Gathering OPCO LLC of a spill from the pipeline at the Trust Well Site owned by EQT Production Company.The inspection found the pipeline still leaking at the time of arrival. The pipeline had been leaking and spraying shale gas wastewater for nearly three hours before being stopped.An estimated 12,600 gallons of wastewater was released from the leak in the pipeline. This estimate is based on the fact that three vac tank trucks were able to recover 12,600 gallons of wastewater from the start of the spill.DEP’s inspector said it wasn’t clear what caused the pipeline to leak and spray wastewater.The owner said the pipeline was new, having only been installed at the site for the past month and a half without issues.A follow-up contact from the owner to DEP later in the day said contamination has also been found below the pipeline on the Trust Well Site.There was no indication in the inspection report where the 12,600 gallons of wastewater went or whether it posed a threat to any drinking water wells nearby.The Trust Well Pad, owned by EQT Production Company, is located at 212 Hoy Hill Road, Holbrook-- Latitude: 39.76133 Longitude: -80.28292, according to DEP’s Oil & Gas Mapping Tool.Typically neither DEP nor the site owner notifies neighboring well owners of spills that could impact their private water supplies.If you live near this location and could be affected, contact DEP’s Southwest District Oil and Gas Office in Pittsburgh at 412-442-4000 or New Stanton Office 724-925-5500.DEP’s inspection report included multiple violations related to the release and requested the owner to submit a plan by October 3, 2024 on how the site will be cleaned up and brought into compliance.

DEP Discovers Evidence Of Continuous Conventional Oil Well Wastewater Release At McKean County Well Site During Routine Inspection - (photos) On November 14, the Department of Environmental Protection discovered evidence of a continuous wastewater release at the Parsons and Warrant 566 conventional oil well sites in Eldred Township, McKean County owned by Charles T. Wandover, Sr. and produced by Charles A. Wandover, Jr., according to DEP. The Parsons well site consists of 11 conventional wells and the Warrant 566 site includes four conventional wells, according to DEP’s eFACTS database. DEP’s inspection report said a gathering wastewater pipeline from one or more wells was connected to a large, poly [plastic] wastewater storage tank. From DEP’s initial investigation, the wastewater release occurred when a valve connected to a flexible drain line at the plastic tank was left open “allowing any production fluid that entered the poly tank to freely drain out the bottom.” The flexible drain line was “observed to travel up and out of the containment area in a northeastern direction for approximately 450 feet until terminating in a grassy area.” Photos included in DEP’s inspection report show the drain line is not visible on the ground surface as it travels to the area where it drains. “Evidence was also found to suggest that production fluid had been previously released within the containment and previously allowed to flow through the containment's fresh water drain onto the ground outside of containment.” “From there, as observed by a path of dead vegetation, the production fluid traveled north approximately 300 feet before ponding in a grassy area.” DEP documented very high conductivity readings along the path of the release. DEP’s inspection report said both Charles Wandover, Sr., who has a business address listed in Inverness, Florida, and Charles Wandover, Jr. were notified of the release by phone. DEP said Charles Wandover, Jr. agreed to meet on November 20 to discuss the violations and remediation options. On November 20, DEP did meet onsite with Charles Wandover, Jr. to discuss the release of wastewater from the containment area and poly storage tank. DEP inspection report. “Since the 11/14/2024 inspection, [Charles Wandover, Jr.] had voluntarily replaced and closed the drain valve on the poly brine tank and had begun removing sections of the black HDPE [plastic] line that previously connected the old drain line to the grassy area.” “We discussed remediation options at this meeting, and Chuck agreed to immediately begin work to bring the leases into compliance. Additional inspections will be conducted to monitor remediation activities and evaluate that necessary actions are being taken to achieve compliance.”DEP also took samples of fluid from the site. On November 25, 2024, DEP sent Charles T. Wandover, Sr. a written notice of violation based on the November 14 inspection report.Multiple violations were included in the notice, including failure to notify DEP of the wastewater release, failure to collect and properly manage wastewater from the well(s) and failure to prevent pollution of ground and surface waters.DEP requested a written response “detailing the cause of this violation, actions taken and future steps to be taken to address the violation noted in the NOV.”DEP’s inspection report set a deadline of December 2, 2024 for that response.The last time DEP inspected the wells on the Warrant 566 tract was on February 11, 2009 when violations were found, but immediately corrected, according to DEP’s Oil & Gas Compliance Database [inspection reports not online]. Two of the Warrant 566 wells were drilled in 1981 and two in 1995.Charles T. Wandover Sr. holds 50 conventional oil and gas well permits, according to DEP’s eFACTs database. Charles A. Wandover, Jr. holds no well permits, although is in DEP’s eFACTS database as a client.

DEP Determines Rulemaking Petition Submitted By Environmental, Health Groups To Adopt More Protective Setbacks From Shale Gas Wells Is An Action The Environmental Quality Board Has Statutory Authority To Take - On November 21, the Department of Environmental Protection announced it has determined, in response to a rulemaking petition, the state Environmental Quality Board has the statutory authority to adopt a regulation setting more protective setbacks from shale gas wells for homes, schools and streams in its initial petition review.EQB regulations at 25 Pa. Code § 23.2 require a petition to meet three criteria in DEP’s initial review--

• -- Petition must be complete;
• -- Petition requests an action that can be taken by the EQB [within its statutory authority]; and
• -- The action does not conflict with federal law.

DEP’s determination means the petition has met these three criteria, at this stage.The next step in the process is that the petition will be announced at the next EQB meeting, and Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project will have the chance to give a 5-minute presentation on why EQB should accept it for study. DEP will make a recommendation at that meeting as to whether EQB should accept the petition for study. If EQB accepts the petition, DEP then has 60 days to prepare a report evaluating the petition in detail, to which the groups will be able to respond, and then DEP will make its final recommendation. If DEP recommends a regulatory change, it has six months to develop a proposed rulemaking for EQB consideration.On October 22, the Clean Air Council and Environmental Integrity Project-- as part of the Protective Buffers PA Coalition-- filed a 358-page rulemaking petition with the Environmental Quality Board asking it to increase minimum setback distances from shale gas wells from a minimum now of 500 feet to 3,281 feet. Read more here. Specifically, the petition proposes--

• -- 3,281 feet from any building;
• -- 3,281 feet from any drinking water well;
• -- 5,280 feet from any building serving vulnerable populations (e.g., schools, daycare centers, hospitals); and
• -- 750 feet from any surface water of the Commonwealth.

Click Here for background on health and environmental issues identified in over 20 years of experience with shale gas development in Pennsylvania, including health studies, a special Grand Jury Report and other resources.“This is an important first step in the right direction to protect the millions of Pennsylvanians who live near fracking,” said Alex Bomstein, Executive Director of Clean Air Council. “No one deserves to live with the harms and perils of fracking in their backyard.”“Study after study shows that fracking too close to buildings and waterways has caused grave and undeniable harm to Pennsylvanians, so we’re glad our petition is moving forward.” said Lisa Hallowell, Senior Attorney with the Environmental Integrity Project. “DEP’s job is to protect people and the environment from pollution, and increasing minimum setback distances from fracking sites should be an obvious next step to protect everyone in the Commonwealth regardless of one’s politics.”“There is no evidence that shale gas development can be done without harm to human health,” said Alison L. Steele, executive director of the Environmental Health Project. “However, greater setback distances are ultimately better for reducing health harms. The EQB’s consideration of a petition to increase setbacks can begin the critical work of correcting what was unquestionably an egregious public health error made when fracking was in its infancy. Today, we know better.”“Those of us living on the front lines of fracking activity have known for decades that this activity is way too close to thousands of families across Pennsylvania, which was affirmed in the 43rd Grand Jury report,” said Gillian Graber, Executive Director of Protect PT, a member of the coalition. “We would encourage the EQB to take swift action to support families impacted by fracking by instituting these changes,” said Graber. "The EQB's acceptance of this petition marks a significant step toward adopting long-overdue protections for Pennsylvania communities," said Katie Jones, Ohio River Valley Coordinator with FracTracker Alliance. "As Attorney General, Governor Shapiro strongly advocated for commonsense measures to protect public health, including expanded no-drill zones to shield Pennsylvanians from the harmful impacts of fracking. At FracTracker, our data consistently highlights the disproportionate risks faced by frontline communities, and we urge swift action to transform this proposal into enforceable safeguards that deliver meaningful relief to those most affected." "Earthworks has spent the last decade proving that oil and gas operations pollute nearby homes and entire communities," said Melissa Ostroff of Earthworks. "Requiring polluters to operate at a distance less harmful to the health of people, and especially children, is common sense and the right thing to do. We appreciate the DEP's decision to move the petition forward, and Gov. Shapiro and his administration should act quickly to set safe setback distances to protect all Pennsylvanians." Click Here for a copy of DEP’s determination.

PA Oil & Gas Industrial Facilities: Permit Notices, Opportunities To Comment - November 30 --The following notices were published in the November 30 PA Bulletin related to oil and gas industry facilities. Many of the notices offer the opportunity for public comments.

• -- CNX Gas Company reported to DEP it failed to stop pumping shale gas wastewater through a pipeline for 24+ hours after an excavator punctured an “unmarked” wastewater pipeline at the Coarse Coal Refuse Disposal Area 7 in Morris Township, Greene County.On May 21, 2024, CNX notified DEP of a spill related to the McQuay to Morris 2 and 3 shale gas wastewater pipeline, as reported in PA Environment Digest. DEP May 21 inspection report. Read more here.The McQuay pipeline is near CNX’s MOR9 shale gas well pad on CONSOL’s underground Bailey Coal Mine surface property. CNX published notice it would be cleaning up the site under the Act 2 Land Recycling Program. (PA Bulletin, page 7704) Read more here.
• -- Seneca Resources Company, LLC - Shale Gas Well Pad C09J: DEP received a Notice of Intent to remediate soil contaminated with production wastewater water to meet the Statewide Health Standard at the pad located in Shippen Twp., Cameron County. (PA Bulletin, page 7704)
• -- CNX Gas Company LLC - Wastewater Pipeline Puncture At Coarse Coal Refuse Disposal Area: DEP received a Notice of Intent to remediate area to meet unknown cleanup standards at the Coarse Coal Refuse Disposal Area impacted by a release from an “unmarked” shale gas wastewater pipeline punctured by a bulldozer during earthmoving operations located in Morris Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7704). Read more here.
• -- SWN Production Company LLC - Greezwieg Large Impoundment: DEP received Final Report on remediation of groundwater contaminated with production wastewater to meet the Statewide Health Standard at the facility located in Herrick Twp., Bradford County. (PA Bulletin, page 7747
• -- EQT Corporation - Beta Cameron Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP received a on remediation of soil contaminated with water-based spacer fluid to meet Statewide Health Standards at the well pad located in Richhill Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7748)
• -- Seneca Resources Company, LLC - Watkins 820 Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP approved a Final Report on remediation of soil contaminated with production wastewater and oil-based drilling mud to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the pad located in Chatham Twp., Tioga County. (PA Bulletin, page 7748)
• -- SWN Production Company, LLC - WY 10 Falconero Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP approved a Final Report on remediation of groundwater contaminated with production wastewater to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the pad located in Forkston Twp., Wyoming County. (PA Bulletin, page 7748)
• -- EQT Corporation - Lumber Shale Gas Well Pad: DEP approved a Final Report on remediation of soil contaminated with production wastewater (aluminum, barium, boron, chloride, iron, lithium, manganese, selenium, strontium, vanadium, and zinc) to meet the Statewide Health Standards at the pad located in Cumberland Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7749)
• -- Greylock Production, LLC - Walker #1 Conventional Well: DEP approved a Final Report on remediate of soil contaminated with production wastewater (aluminum, barium, boron, chloride, iron, lithium, manganese, selenium, strontium, vanadium, and zinc) to meet Statewide Health Standards at the well located in Cumberland Twp., Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7749)
• So far in 2024, DEP received or acted on 262 Act 2 Land Recycling notices related to oil and gas facility site cleanups.

CNX Gas Company Reports It Did Not Stop Pumping Shale Gas Wastewater Through A Punctured Pipeline For 24+ Hours During An Incident In Morris Township, Greene County In May = CNX Gas Company reported to DEP it did not stop pumping shale gas wastewater through a pipeline for 24+ hours after an excavator punctured an “unmarked” wastewater pipeline at the Coarse Coal Refuse Disposal Area 7 in Morris Township, Greene County.On May 21, 2024, CNX notified DEP of a spill related to the McQuay to Morris 2 and 3 shale gas wastewater pipeline, as reported in PA Environment Digest. DEP May 21 inspection report.The McQuay pipeline is near CNX’s MOR9 shale gas well pad on CONSOL’s underground Bailey Coal Mine surface property.CNX initially reported that “more than a barrel” [42 gallons] of wastewater was released from a pipeline damaged by a contractor for CONSOL when an excavator doing earthwork at the coal refuse disposal area punctured an “unmarked” pipeline that runs under the disposal area.In a June 21, 2024 response to DEP’s May 21 inspection report, CNX included a timeline of actions related to the incident that were known up until that time.According to the timeline, the incident puncturing the wastewater pipeline happened on May 20 at 8:30 a.m. On May 21 at 9:15 a.m., a CNX foreman received a voicemail that a contractor punctured the wastewater pipeline.On May 21 at 9:34 a.m., CNX ceased all pumping of wastewater through the pipeline-- more than 24-hours after the pipeline was punctured.On May 21 at Noon, CNX reported the incident to DEP Oil & Gas Program and CONSOL reported the incident to DEP’s Mining Office.CNX said in its June 21 response, it had repaired 450 feet of damaged wastewater pipeline and excavated contaminated material was stockpiled for later removal.CNX estimated removal of the contaminated soils would happen by July 5, 2024.There was no estimate of the amount of wastewater released in the response.The company said it would use the Act 2 Land Recycling Program standards for cleaning up the site.. On May 21, DEP inspected the incident site in response to the CNX notification that same day and found “elevated conductivity” in “pooled water and substrate” at the impacted area.At the time of this initial inspection, “CNX representatives noted that CONSOL had not called to check for buried lines in their work area since November of 2023,” according to DEP.DEP requested CNX to submit a response to the violations resulting from the incident by June 18, 2024 with a description of how they would bring the site into compliance and an estimate of the amount of wastewater released. DEP May 21 inspection report.In a follow-up inspection on May 28, DEP reported remediation work was continuing, but there were still areas with elevated conductivity. DEP also found two new seeps of an “oil-like substance” in the spill area. DEP May 28 inspection report.DEP said the wastewater pipeline was reburied and flagged at the time of this inspection.

Public Citizen: LNG Gas Exports Could Cost Pennsylvanians Up To $16 Billion More In Energy Costs - - On November 25, Public Citizen released a new report saying Pennsylvania’s households, businesses, and owners of electric power plants could pay up to $16 billion more because of higher natural gas prices between 2035 to 2050 if the new Republican Administration approves new gas export facility permits put on hold by the Biden Administration.Pennsylvanians will be on the hook for an increase in their energy prices—and more exposure to volatile international energy markets. The state’s electric power sector and its customers, already coping with overreliance on expensive fossil fuel generators, would bear the brunt of the increase, with Pennsylvania’s gas-fired power plants paying up to an additional $7.4 billion for gas over 15 years.According to the report, the impact wouldn’t stop there, with energy price hikes impacting industrial natural gas consumers, costing them an additional $4 billion, residential gas utility consumers an additional $2 billion and commercial consumers an extra $1 billion.More than half of Pennsylvania households use natural gas as the main fuel to heat their homes. Over one-quarter of U.S. households are experiencing energy insecurity, including having difficulty paying energy bills, skipping necessities such as food and medicine, or keeping their homes at unsafe temperatures because of an inability to pay for energy. “Pennsylvania consumers should prepare for a Trump energy shock as fossil fuel exporters profit at their consumers’ expense,” said Alan Zibel, a research director at Public Citizen and the report’s author. “Ramping up gas exports has already caused major negative consequences for consumers. The incoming Trump administration will advance a massive expansion of fossil fuel exports, delivering higher energy bills to the people of Pennsylvania.”The average winter heating bill for gas users in the Northeast is expected to rise nearly 11%, driving the average bill up to $844 for the winter of 2024-2025 and nearly 22% of American households were behind on their gas bill as of June 2024, up from 19% a year earlier, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association.The U.S. has become the world’s largest methane gas exporter, with seven LNG terminals operating and five more are under construction. Export is expected to double by 2028, despite opposition from local communities suffering serious health impacts. “If Trump approves pending LNG export authorizations that the Biden administration temporarily halted earlier this year, China will be the big winner and Pennsylvania families will be stuck paying higher prices despite record production,” said Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s Energy Program. “The gas export fiasco benefits fracking executives and owners of export terminals while sticking American families and small business owners with the bill.” Click Here for a copy of the report. Click Here for the complete announcement.

Closed Fairmont, WV Wastewater Plant Not Cleaned Up 1.5 Years Later - Marcellus Drilling News - On May 30, 2023, a fire and subsequent explosion damaged an above-ground storage tank and the upper process building at the already-closed Fairmont Brine Processing plant in Fairmont, WV (see Unrelated Explosions at OH Utica Well Pad, WV Brine Plant). Following the fire, elevated readings of TENORM radiation were found in several areas of the site. Here it is a year-and-a-half later, and work to clean up the facility still has not happened, much to the consternation and concern of those who live near it.

EQT, Blackstone Credit Form $8.8-Billion Midstream Joint Venture - Independent natural gas producer EQT has entered into a definitive agreement with funds managed by Blackstone Credit & Insurance to form a multi-billion midstream joint venture consisting of EQT's ownership interest in Mountain Valley Pipeline, certain regulated transmission and storage assets, and the Hammerhead Pipeline. The venture announcement follows EQT’s $5.45-billion purchase of Equitrans Midstream this past March. EQT will be the operator of the midstream joint venture, controlling all key decision making. Under the terms of the agreement Blackstone Credit will provide EQT $3.5 billion in cash consideration in exchange for a noncontrolling common equity interest in the venture. The investment implies a total valuation for the new entity of around $8.8 billion. The venture provides EQT with a large-scale equity capital solution at an accretive cost of capital. Additionally, EQT will retain the rights to growth projects associated with the assets contributed to the venture, including the planned Mountain Valley Pipeline expansion and the Mountain Valley Southgate project. The Mountain Valley Pipeline is a natural gas pipeline system that spans roughly 303 miles from northwestern West Virginia to southern Virginia, serving the Marcellus and Utica shale plays. The line was placed in service this past June. The transmission and storage assets cover around 940 miles of pipeline running through Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia. The 63-mile Hammerhead Pipeline is a 1.6 Bcf/D gathering header pipeline connecting natural gas produced in Pennsylvania and West Virginia to Mountain Valley Pipeline, Texas Eastern Transmission, and Eastern Gas Transmission. "Blackstone is a leader in providing capital solutions to large corporations and we are thrilled to partner with them in this unique transaction, crafting a tailor-made equity financing solution at a price significantly below EQT's equity cost of capital while preserving key tax attributes,” said Jeremy Knop, chief financial officer at EQT. The joint venture transaction is subject to customary closing adjustments, required regulatory approvals and clearances, and is expected to close prior to year-end. EQT dubbed the Equitrans deal “transformative” at the time of the announcement last spring. It provided more than 2,000 miles of pipeline infrastructure with extensive overlap and connectivity in EQT’s core area of operations. The combined company holds 27.6 Tcf equivalent (Tcfe) of proved reserves including natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil across 1.9 million net acres with 6.3 Bcfe/D of net production and more than 8 Bcfe/D of gathering throughput across more than 3,000 miles of pipeline.

Cheniere Clears Another Hurdle to Startup Corpus Christi LNG Expansion --FERC on Wednesday gave Cheniere Energy Inc. permission to introduce natural gas to its Corpus Christi Stage 3 liquefaction expansion in South Texas, keeping the project on track to produce first LNG this year. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission granted Cheniere’s Aug. 14 request to introduce natural gas to Train 1’s fuel gas and hot oil systems. As the timelines for other North American projects have slipped, CEO Jack Fusco said in October that the company’s contractor Bechtel Corp. is working on an accelerated schedule. He said during the company’s earnings call that pre-commissioning activities on Train 1 of the project were advancing.

FERC OKs Natural Gas Expansions, Including KMI-Led Elba Island and Texas-Louisiana Project --Three natural gas projects were approved by FERC on Thursday, including one to increase liquefaction capacity at the Elba Island LNG export terminal in Georgia. Chart, table and map showing estimated daily feed gas flows to U.S. LNG terminals. At its regular monthly meeting, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission also approved a request by the Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America LLC (NGPL) to modify compressor stations for the Texas-Louisiana Expansion Project. In addition, a request by Rover Pipeline LLC was given the green light to construct and operate the Rover-Bulger Delivery Meter Station Project in Washington County, PA. In the Elba Island certificate approval, the Commission approved an expansion request by Elba Liquefaction Co. LLC (ELC), a joint venture led by Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) and operated by subsidiary Southern LNG Co. LLC (No. CP23-375-000).

ONEOK Buys Rest of EnLink for $4.3 Billion in Stock - Transmission specialists ONEOK will acquire all the outstanding publicly held units of EnLink in an all-stock merger transaction valued at $4.3 billion. In October, ONEOK completed the acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners’ (GIP) entire interest in EnLink for $3.3 billion in cash, giving them a 43% stake in the Dallas-based midstream operator. Following the all-stock deal, ONEOK will hold a 100% stake in EnLink. EnLink Midstream provides integrated energy infrastructure services for natural gas, oil, condensate, and NGLs, as well as CO2 transportation for carbon capture and sequestration. It operates around 13,600 miles of pipelines, 25 natural gas processing plants with roughly 5.9 Bcf/D of processing capacity, and seven fractionators with 320,000 B/D of fractionation capacity. The company’s core assets include natural gas infrastructure in the Permian Basin, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and North Texas. “This tax-free transaction to acquire the remaining outstanding EnLink units is expected to be accretive to ONEOK shareholders and provide EnLink unitholders with significantly greater trading liquidity and an attractive dividend yield,” said Pierce H. Norton II, ONEOK president and CEO. “ONEOK has a longstanding reputation as being intentional in building a premier energy infrastructure company. This next step further solidifies that status, allowing us to continue expanding and extending our value chain, while creating value for our stakeholders.” Under the agreement, each outstanding common unit of EnLink that ONEOK does not already own will be converted into 0.1412 shares of ONEOK common stock. ONEOK expects to issue approximately 37 million shares in connection with the proposed transaction, representing approximately 6% of the total ONEOK shares outstanding upon consummation of the transaction. Subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions, completion of the transaction is expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025. Two weeks after closing the deal for GIP’s interest in EnLink, ONEOK also concluded a deal to acquire Medallion Midstream from GIP in a cash deal worth $2.6 billion. Medallion operated one of the largest privately held crude gathering and transportation systems in the Permian’s Midland basin. The deal included more than 1,200 miles of crude oil gathering pipelines providing around 1.3 million B/D of capacity and approximately 1.5 million bbl of crude oil storage in the Permian Basin. ONEOK worked to offset a bit of its spending spree during this time. Earlier this month, it reached a deal with DT Midstream to sell its three wholly owned interstate natural gas pipeline systems for $1.2 billion in cash. The three interstate pipeline systems include Guardian Pipeline LLC, which interconnects with several pipelines at the Chicago Hub near Joliet, Illinois, and with local natural gas distribution and electric generation companies in Wisconsin; Midwestern Gas Transmission, which is a bidirectional system with a major pipeline interconnect near Portland, Tennessee, and with multiple interstate pipelines that have access to both the Utica Shale and the Marcellus Shale, and multiple interstate pipelines at the Chicago Hub near Joliet; and Viking Gas Transmission, which is a bidirectional system that interconnects with a major pipeline system at the US border near Emerson, Canada, and Marshfield, Wisconsin. ONEOK said it would use proceeds from the sale to enhance its financial flexibility as well as its deleveraging trend toward its previously announced target of 3.5 times during 2026.

Oneok Building Natural Gas, NGL Portfolio with Full Ownership of EnLink --A month after acquiring a controlling stake in EnLink Midstream LLC, Oneok Inc. has agreed to pay $4.3 billion for the remaining publicly held shares in the Permian Basin-focused pipeline operator. Map showing Oneok Inc.'s midstream assets in Texas compared to EnLink Midstream and Medallion's assets. Tulsa-based Oneok completed its $3.3 billion purchase of a 43% controlling interest in EnLink from Global Infrastructure Partners in October. When the deal was announced in August, Oneok said it aimed to acquire remaining publicly held interests. Oneok said it would scoop up the remaining 6% of shares still publicly held. The all-stock transaction was expected to occur in the first quarter of 2025.

Natural Gas and Crude Oil Respond to Colder Forecasts and Geopolitical Challenges - Expectations of colder weather in the US and an early start to the withdrawal season have seen US natural gas starting the week on a strong note. Meanwhile, the escalation in Russia-Ukraine tensions continues to support energy prices, Natural gas prices jumped higher this morning on expectations of colder weather in the US and the inventory draw over the last week. HENRY HUB Dec-24 contract jumped by around 9% to US$3.39/MMBtu this morning while the Jan-25 contract also increased by around 7% to US$3.52/MMBtu at the time of writing. Escalated geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine has also been broadly supportive of natural gas prices as peak demand season approaches. The US sanctioned Russian bank Gazprombank last week, the last major financial institution handling payments from European energy customers to Russia. Crude oil prices started the week on a soft note after a positive run last week as geopolitical concerns remain although no new major escalation was seen over the weekend. ICE Brent slipped below US$75/bbl this morning while NYMEX WTI has been trading at around US$70.9/bbl. ICE Brent has been trading in a range of around US$70-75/bbl over the past few weeks as demand concerns keep a cap at around US$75/bbl while geopolitical concerns provide a floor around US$70/bbl.Weekly positioning data from the CFTC shows that managed money net long position in NYMEX WTI dropped for the second consecutive week. Money managers trimmed net longs in NYMEX WTI by 17,810 lots over the week to 108,132 lots as of 19 November. On the other hand, exchange data shows that speculators have built fresh longs of 31,390 lots in ICE Brent over the last week to leave them with 134,929 lots of net long position. Fresh concerns around the Russia-Ukraine war have pushed up speculative interest in energy commodities. Speculators also added 7,319 lots of long positions to the NYMEX Gasoline contracts to push net longs to 68,380 lots last week. The latest data from the World Steel Association (WSA) shows that global Steel production rose marginally by 0.4% YoY to 151.2mt in October. Higher output from China (+2.9% YoY to 81.9mt), India (+1.7% YoY to 12.5mt) and the European Union (+5.7% YoY to 11.3mt) was partially offset by lower production from Russia (-15.2% YoY), South Korea (-18.3% YoY) and Japan (-7.8% YoY). Cumulatively, global steel output fell by 1.6% YoY to 1,546.6mt over the first 10 months of the year. Chinese steel production fell 3% YoY to 850.7mt for the year to date.Meanwhile, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory data shows that weekly inventories for all base metals (except Nickel) fell over the reporting week. Copper stocks fell by 10,229 tonnes for a fifth consecutive week to 120,236 tonnes, the lowest since 9 February 2024. Meanwhile, aluminium inventories decreased by 1,827 tonnes for a fourth consecutive week to 231,854 tonnes (the lowest since June 2024).Lead and Zinc stocks also fell by 20,547 tonnes and 4,521 tonnes over the week. In contrast, nickel inventories rose by 2.4% week-over-week to 31,194 tonnes.The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators decreased their net longs of COMEX copper by 732 lots for a second consecutive week to 10,214 lots as of 19 November, the lowest since the week ending 13 August 2024. The move was driven by falling gross longs and gross shorts by 8,608 lots and 1,570 lots respectively. In precious metals, managed money net longs in COMEX gold decreased by 7,038 lots to 190,324 lots (the least bullish bets since the week ending on 6 August 2024) over the last reporting week. In contrast, speculators increased net longs of silver by 1,835 lots to 25,896 lots as of last Tuesday after previously reporting declines for three consecutive weeks. Recent data from Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry shows that the season's grain exports have increased by 43% YoY to 17.2mt as of 22 November, up from 12mt for the same period last year. The increase was driven by wheat, with exports rising significantly by 57% YoY to 8.6mt. Similarly, corn exports stood at 6.5mt, up 16% from a similar period a year ago. Total (EPA:TTEF) grain exports have reached almost 3mt so far this month. Meanwhile, farmers have already planted 6.1m hectares (slightly ahead of last year) of winter crops from 98% of the planted area. In a separate release, the Ministry said the total grain harvest declined 3.8% YoY to 53.4mt for the period mentioned above. The above includes a wheat harvest of 22.4mt, in line with the previous year's crop. Corn harvest stood at 23.6mt, down from 24.9mt at the same stage last year, whilesoybean harvest rose 25% YoY to 6mt. Recent estimates from the Western Australia Grain Association show that wheat harvest from the nation's top wheat-producing state could rise to a third-biggest harvest of 10.3mt for the 2024/25 season, slightly above the previous estimate of 9.3mt. The rise in estimates was largely driven by the better yields, despite dry weather conditions in the country. An unexpected increase in wheat exports from the country would help to reduce concerns about potential disruptions to shipments from the Black Sea region, due to the Russia-Ukraine war. The latest CFTC data show that money managers increased their net short position in CBOT wheat by 6,239 lots for a second consecutive week to 51,546 lots as of 19 November, the most bearish bet since 27 August 2024. The move was dominated by increasing gross shorts by 15,614 lots. Similarly, speculators increased their net bearish bets in soybeans by 13,165 lots after reporting a decline for two consecutive weeks to 67,701 lots. The move again was led by increasing gross shorts by 13,559 lots to 176,921 lots. Meanwhile, the net speculative long position in CBOT corn rose by 4,639 lots for a third consecutive week to 114,628 lots (the most bullish bets since 21 February 2023) over the last reporting week, following a decrease in gross longs and gross shorts by 9,424 lots and 14,063 lots respectively.

US natgas prices drop 8% on less cold forecasts, lower heating demand (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 8% in volatile trade on Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday on rising output and forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. That price drop occurred despite a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showing utilities pulled an expected 2 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas storage during mild weather and low heating demand last week. That was not far off the 1-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a build of 5 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 30 bcf for this time of year. On its first day as the front month, gas futures for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange 26.3 cents, or 7.6%, to settle at $3.204 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, when December futures were still the front month, the contract closed at its highest level since November 2023 for a second day in a row. Wednesday's price drop pushed the front-month out of technically overbought territory, while extreme price swings in recent weeks boosted the contract's 30-day implied volatility to 76.4%, its highest since January. The market uses implied volatility to estimate likely price changes in the future when valuing options contracts. At-the-money 30-day implied volatility has averaged 59.8% so far in 2024, down from 70.3% in 2023 and a five-year (2019-2023) average of 60.1%. In the spot market, meanwhile, the coming of wintry weather across parts of the United States caused gas prices to rise to their highest since January in several regions, including the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana, New York, Chicago and the Eastern Gas South hub in Pennsylvania. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 101.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November from 101.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts expect producers to boost gas output in 2025 as rising demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increases prices after drillers reduced production in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut usage of the fuel. Annual average gas prices at the Henry Hub will soar by over 40% in 2025 after dropping to a four-year low in 2024, according to analysts forecasts. Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 will turn from mostly colder than normal now through Dec. 3 to mostly near-normal levels from Dec. 4-12. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would jump from 114.5 bcfd this week to 131.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.5 bcfd so far in November from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Analysts, however, have noted LNG feedgas flows would be even higher but for issues at Freeport LNG in Texas. Gas flows to the 2.1-bcfd Freeport plant have averaged 1.7 bcfd over the past two weeks due in part to various problems that caused two of the plant's three liquefaction trains to shut unexpectedly. Train 2 tripped off line on Nov. 15 and again on Nov. 22, while Train 3 shut on Nov. 20.

Controversial Line 5 project faces more legal action in Wisconsin – A legal challenge is expected since the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has granted key permit approvals to a Canadian energy company to reroute its controversial Line 5 pipeline in northern Wisconsin. The DNR’s approval allows Enbridge Energy to begin preparations for the rerouting project. Environmental groups are preparing to take legal action against an upstate pipeline project for which the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources just approved permits, despite overwhelming community pushback. Stephanie Tsosie, staff attorney for Earthjustice, represents the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Tribe, whose lands have been directly affected by Line 5 for years. She said Enbridge still needs federal approval to move forward with construction. “This is not a foregone conclusion that Enbridge is going to have this pipeline operating,” Tsosie pointed out. “There’s a lot of processes, there’s a lot of approvals, and this is just one of them. And we’re ready to stand with the Band and figure out ways to make sure that, whatever approvals there are, that they comply with the law.” She explained the current line is illegally trespassing on tribal lands. Enbridge’s solution is to add 41 miles to reroute it, which would still have dire consequences in the event of an oil spill. A pending lawsuit by the tribe to have the line completely removed from its lands awaits a federal court decision which could halt the project entirely. Labor groups favor the jobs the Line 5 project could bring to the state, and industry and ag groups rely on the fossil fuels the pipeline transports. Environmental groups countered the risk of oil spills and damage to waterways and wildlife is paramount. Evan Feinauer, staff attorney for Clean Wisconsin, said the debate misses the bigger picture by ignoring the current climate threats and their generational consequences. “I just hope that people can hold that long-term view in their heads and think about people beyond themselves, including people who are children today or not even born yet,”

Trump gave Interior nominee one directive for a half-billion acres of US land: 'Drill.' (AP) — Donald Trump assigned Doug Burgum a singular mission in nominating the governor of oil-rich North Dakota to lead an agency that oversees a half-billion acres of federal land and vast areas offshore: “Drill baby drill.”That dictate from the president-elect’s announcement of Burgum for Secretary of Interior sets the stage for a reignition of the court battles over public lands and waters that helped define Trump’s first term, with environmentalists worried about climate change already pledging their opposition.Burgum is an ultra-wealthy software industry entrepreneur who grew up on his family’s farm. He represents a tame choice compared to other Trump Cabinet picks.Public lands experts said his experience as a popular two-term governor who aligns himself with conservationist Teddy Roosevelt suggests a willingness to collaborate, as opposed to dismantling from within the agency he is tasked with leading.That could help smooth his confirmation and clear the way for the incoming administration to move quickly to open more public lands to development and commercial use.“Burgum strikes me as a credible nominee who could do a credible job as Interior secretary,” said John Leshy, who served as Interior’s solicitor under former President Bill Clinton.“He’s not a right-wing radical on public lands,” added Leshy, professor emeritus at the University of California College of the Law, San Francisco.The Interior Department manages about one-fifth of the country’s land with a mandate that spans from wildlife conservation and recreation to natural resource extraction and fulfilling treaty obligations with Native American tribes. Most of those lands are in the West, where frictions with private landowners and state officials are commonplace and have sometimes mushroomed into violent confrontations with right-wing groups that reject federal jurisdiction.Burgum if confirmed would be faced with a pending U.S. Supreme Court action from Utah that seeks to assert state power over Interior Department lands. North Dakota’s attorney general has supported the lawsuit, but Burgum’s office declined to say if he backs Utah’s claims.U.S. Justice Department attorneys on Thursday asked the Supreme Court to reject Utah’s lawsuit. They said Utah in 1894 agreed to give up its right to the lands at issue when it became a state.Trump’s narrow focus on fossil fuels is a replay from his 2016 campaign — although minus coal mining, a collapsing industry that he failed to revive in his first term. Trump repeatedly hailed oil as “liquid gold” on the campaign trail this year and largely omitted any mention of coal.About 26% of U.S. oil comes from federal lands and offshore waters overseen by Interior. Production continues to hit record levels under President Joe Biden despite claims by Trump that the Democrat hindered drilling.

Cleanup under way for fuel oil spill in San Juan harbor -- On Thursday, the U.S. Coast Guard responded to a spill between a tanker and a fuel dock in San Juan, Puerto Rico. The spill was quickly shut off and contained, and cleanup is under way. At about 1930 hours on Wednesday, Sector San Juan received notice from the U.S. National Response Center that a spill had occurred at the Puma Energy fuel dock in San Juan Harbor. During a transfer of No. 3 fuel oil from the tanker Dubai Green to the pierside receiving facility, about 1,000 gallons spilled into the water. The crew detected the spill when they spotted a sheen on the water, and they shut down the transfer operation. Video from the scene shows fuel oil all over the receiving dock, including sections of the gantry above the pier. The sheen covered an area of about 300 feet by 12 feet, and cleanup crews deployed about 1,000 feet of boom to prevent it from spreading. Puma Energy brought in Marine Spill Response Corporation to perform a cleanup, and Puma hired local subcontractor All Environmental Services to assist. The work to remove petroleum from the containment area and from small pockets in the harbor will likely take several days. Coast Guard environmental response officers are investigating the spill and overseeing the cleanup. In the meantime, the Coast Guard has advised local fishermen and members of the public to stay clear of the area and avoid touching contaminated materials. "We are investigating and overseeing clean-up efforts to ensure the right resources are brought into this response to remove this pollution threat and mitigate the marine environmental impacts in the affected area as best as possible," said Chief Warrant Officer Jamie Testa, Coast Guard Federal On-Scene Coordinator for the incident. "This incident highlights the importance of fuel facilities and vessels having updated response plans in place and that those plans are exercised frequently to ensure the quickest and most efficient response possible."

Alberta Plans Legal Challenge to Bypass Trudeau Cap on Oil, Gas Emissions - Alberta intends to invoke legislation allowing it to defy a federally proposed cap on emissions from the energy industry in opposition to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Canadian province, which holds the world’s third-largest crude reserves in its oil sands, plans to introduce a motion to “stop a federal cap from infringing on the province’s distinct jurisdiction,” Alberta’s government said. Trudeau’s government earlier this month announced a plan to implement a cap-and-trade system to require its oil and gas industry to cut emissions as much as 35 percent below 2019 levels. The proposal would go into force in six years. Alberta has vowed to challenge the proposal, arguing it will result in a production cut of at least 1 million barrels a day of oil and gas in the province, while effectively prohibiting any production growth. “Albertans are relying on us to stand firm on this and we will not let them down,” Premier Danielle Smith said in a press conference from Edmonton. The Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act, passed early in Smith’s term in office, orders provincial agencies to not enforce or aid in enforcing federal rules deemed unconstitutional or “causing harm to Albertans.” Should a cap become law, Alberta will launch an immediate constitutional challenge, the government said. Alberta’s motion would prohibit entry by individuals, including federal officials, onto any oil and gas facility unless they are licensed by Alberta. It also would declare information related to greenhouse gas emissions from oil and gas sites as “proprietary information exclusively owned by the Government of Alberta.” Companies would be required to report their emissions directly to the provincial government, which would disclose the data at its own discretion. The province plans to take an active role in strategically selling oil and gas collected as royalties in lieu of cash, Smith said, suggesting the heavy crude could be sold to fill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves or supply the US Defense Department or be sold to buyers overseas who face challenges in securing supplies from companies.

LNG Prices Soar as Europe Outbids Asia for Winter Supply Global natural gas markets are tightening this heating season, leading to higher costs of LNG supply to Europe in what could be a colder winter than the two previous mild winters.Europe has stepped up imports of liquefied natural gas in recent weeks, especially LNG from the United States, where the benchmark gas prices at Henry Hub are significantly lower compared to the European benchmark, the Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures.With peak demand season in the northern hemisphere approaching, Europe is competing with Asia for LNG supply, which is driving prices higher and already discouraging some price-sensitive buyers in south Asia from buying LNG cargoes on the spot market.But Europe doesn’t have much choice. It has to step up purchases to meet its rising natural gas demand as colder temperatures settle in while geopolitics adds another layer of uncertainty about near-term supply.The European natural gas market has been on edge for weeks with the start of the winter heating season, a massive lull in wind speeds in northwestern Europe, a dispute over deliveries between Austria’s OMV and Russia’s Gazprom, and the end of the gas transit deal via Ukraine which expires on December 31, 2024. Ukraine has said it would not pursue talks about renewing the agreement with Russia.As a result of the combination of all these factors, the front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, have rallied in the past three weeks to hit a two-year high at the end of last week.In the two months since September, Europe’s benchmark gas prices have jumped by about 40%, with the November 22 price topping $51.35 (49 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh). That equals $14.97 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), nearly five times higher than the U.S. benchmark.The widening premium of European prices to U.S. benchmark prices has incentivized moreU.S. exporters to direct their destination-flexible cargoes to Europe. The huge premium of European prices against U.S. prices is set to further incentivize LNG exporters to ship more cargoes to Europe this winter season.The higher European prices are also diverting LNG cargoes initially bound for Asia, as Europe currently commands a price premium. In the past weeks, at least 11 cargoes have been diverted from either Asia or Egypt to Europe, Argus reported last week, citing vessel-tracking data from Vortexa.

EU Goal to Displace Natural Gas with Hydrogen Facing Major Headwinds, Energy Regulator Warns --The European Union (EU) is likely to miss its hydrogen market goals by 2030 without major reforms, derailing a planned transition from natural gas, according to the bloc’s energy regulatory agency. Map showing Europe and proposed hydrogen import routes. In the landmark European Green Deal approved in 2020, the European Commission set a series of policies aiming for a “climate-neutral bloc” by 2050. As a major tool for replacing fossil fuels in power and heavy industry, policymakers also set targets to consume 20 million tons/year (Mt/y) of renewable hydrogen and install 62 GW in electrolyzer capacity by 2030. In its latest hydrogen market report, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) concluded those targets are unlikely to be met without tackling issues that include production cost and infrastructure.

Miami Financier's Bold Bid for Nord Stream 2 Sparks Controversy -- US investor Stephen P. Lynch, who has decades of business dealings in Moscow, has reportedly asked US officials for permission to bid on the sabotaged Nord Stream 2 pipeline if it is auctioned off in a Swiss bankruptcy court, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. Lynch has discussed with US senators, Treasury officials, and State officials the possibility of American ownership of the sabotaged NS2 pipeline, which runs from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea. "The bottom line is this: This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era," Lynch told the Journal. Lynch, who lives in South Florida and supports President-elect Donald Trump, sounds like he understands that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is highly probable in Trump's second term. This suggests that NatGas flows from Russia to Germany could restart once again. Beware of sailboats operated by rogue Ukrainian special forces—Lynch is likely well aware of this risk. It is a good question why Lynch has decided to go public about the potential ownership transfer of the 765-mile-long pipeline. WSJ provided more color on the situation: Lynch sought a license from the US Treasury Department in February, according to a letter written by his lawyers at WilmerHale and viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The license would allow him to negotiate for the pipeline with entities currently subject to US sanctions. The letter said there is a hard deadline in January in the Swiss bankruptcy proceeding for Nord Stream 2 to either restructure its debt—which the letter says is unlikely—or face liquidation. Lynch argues that once the war is over it will be tempting for both Russia and its former customers in Germany and Europe to turn on the pipeline, regardless of who owns it. Lynch believes he can purchase the slightly used pipeline - with some wear and tear - for pennies on the dollar (the pipeline was once valued at around $11 billion)... He has told people that he thinks he can buy Nord Stream 2, which has been valued at around $11 billion, for pennies on the dollar, according to people familiar with matter. He has said many investors won't bid because of the complex geopolitics tied to the conduit, and the other bidders are likely to include Russian proxies, Chinese entities or others at odds with US interests. "The Biden administration and incoming Trump administration should be able to agree on this," Lee Wolosky, a former special counsel to President Biden and a friend of Lynch, said, adding, "His background as an American investor who has navigated Russia adeptly makes him well-suited to lead the effort." Lynch's potential move to control NatGas transportation to Europe looks brilliant on paper, but what will stop Western adversaries from sabotaging it afterward?

Russia: Gazprom Unlikely to Sell Nord Stream 2 to U.S. Investor -It is unlikely that Russian gas giant Gazprom, a shareholder in Nord Stream 2, would agree to hand over ownership of the pipeline to a U.S. investor, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saidon Tuesday, commenting on a report that a U.S. businessman plans to bid for the pipeline.U.S. businessman Stephen P. Lynch, who has lived in Russia for two decades and has done business there, has sought a U.S. license to try to buy Nord Stream 2, The Wall Street Journalreported last week.

Global Natural Gas Prices Volatile Amid Tightening Supply, Demand Balance – LNG Recap --Global natural gas prices continued their charge higher on Monday, lifted by colder weather, rising geopolitical tensions and LNG plant outages in Asia. (a chart showing European Union natural gas storage levels by month) Both the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) January futures contracts settled at their highest point of the year last Thursday, finishing at $14.99/MMBtu and $15.07, respectively. JKM spot prices rose above $15 too as prompt buying has heated up this month. TTF gained 2% on Monday and finished just below $15. While weather is expected to be mild most of this week, “slightly below temperatures” are forecast for Northern and Central Europe over the next six to 10-day timeframe, according to Maxar’s Weather Desk.

Asian Supply Outages Ease as Pluto Export Plant Ramps Back Up — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market -- Woodside Energy Group Ltd. has started the process of bringing the Pluto LNG facility in Western Australia back online after an unplanned outage on Monday (Nov. 21). Chart showing Latin America direct-ex-ship prices from Natural Gas Intelligence. The company commenced the restart on Tuesday after a fault in the control system knocked the 5 million ton/year (Mt/y) facility offline. Kpler vessel-tracking data shows the Energy Navigator vessel chartered by Tokyo Gas Co. Ltd. is scheduled to arrive for loading at the facility on Thursday (Nov. 28). The Asian market has tightened because of a rally in European gas prices this month, winter spot buying and plant outages at the Brunei, Tangguh and Ichthys LNG facilities in recent weeks. The Japan-Korea Marker prompt futures contract settled at its highest point of the year on Nov. 21 at $15.07/MMBtu, but has since come down.

Competition Among Middle East LNG Producers Continues as UAE, Oman Gain Ground --Oman and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) continue to meaningfully compete with Qatar for LNG customers, offering supply contracts with shorter terms and more destination flexibility. Bar graph showing natural gas production projects expected to be designed and added to the Middle East separated by project type. Competition among the Middle East’s three LNG producers is growing as each has worked to capitalize on growth in the global gas market by advancing a suite of projects. The moves come as Qatar is advancing projects to increase its LNG production by a staggering 85% from current levels. Oman is turning its focus from crude oil exports to increasing LNG output for existing and new customers under a plan laid out by the sultanate’s energy ministry last year.

Oil Spill at Donges: TotalEnergies Mobilizes to Contain Pollution in the Loire – An oil spill, detected Saturday evening in a pipeline at the TotalEnergies refinery in Donges, caused pollution in the Loire River. The Loire-Atlantique prefecture reported that the leak, caused by a 2 cm breach in a 30 cm diameter pipeline, created a visible sheen covering approximately 500 m² of the river’s surface. Authorities quickly deployed floating barriers to contain the pollution, though weather conditions complicated the operations. The leak, identified at 10:50 PM, was halted by 1:40 AM Sunday, according to TotalEnergies. The company stated that additional intervention measures were completed at 8:50 AM on the same day. The flow of crude oil into the Loire ceased entirely at 3:45 AM, according to the prefecture. Specialized teams have been deployed to permanently seal the breach and prevent further leakage. The amount of oil spilled into the Loire is estimated to be less than 15 m³. Preliminary analyses along the riverbanks detected no significant traces of hydrocarbons, and no abnormalities in air quality were reported. The prefecture also noted that the sheen could naturally dissipate under the influence of wind, eventually moving to the riverbanks. However, authorities and TotalEnergies continue efforts to assess the full environmental impact of the incident. Containment measures remain in place, and teams are working to mitigate potential effects on the local ecosystem. The Donges refinery, classified as a high-threshold Seveso site, is the second-largest refinery operated by TotalEnergies in France, following the Normandy facility. It spans 350 hectares and employs 650 people. The site processes 11 million tonnes of crude oil annually, with a storage capacity of 2.2 million m³. This incident recalls a previous spill in December 2022 when 700,000 liters of gasoline were leaked from the same site. These events raise questions about the safety of infrastructure and preventive measures at sensitive locations.

TotalEnergies invites Mozambique to investigate gas plant massacre – The French energy giant TotalEnergies welcomed a Mozambican government offer to allow an investigation into allegations of a massacre at its gas megaproject in northern Mozambique — and urged an inquiry be carried out “as soon as possible.” The call comes after the company’s Mozambican subsidiary Mozambique LNG said it had conducted its own “extensive research” and “not identified any information nor evidence that would corroborate the allegations of severe abuses and torture.” POLITICO reported in September that a Mozambican military unit operating out of TotalEnergies’ gas plant herded a group of between 180 and 250 people into containers at the energy giant’s gatehouse and kept them there for three months. Eleven survivors, plus two witnesses, testified that only 26 men survived the ordeal. POLITICO published a summary of a survey that identified 97 victims, and listed their causes of death as suffocation, being beaten to death, being shot, being “disappeared” — taken away and presumably executed — and missing, presumed dead after last being seen in the army’s custody.Relatives of the victims told POLITICO they had kept silent about the massacre out of fear of reprisals.Work on the site was halted in 2021 as Islamist militants swept through the region. TotalEnergies and the Mozambican authorities have denied all knowledge of the attack. In a statement published Tuesday, Mozambique LNG noted that in October the Mozambican Ministry of Defence expressed a “total openness and willingness to accept a transparent and impartial investigation.”“Mozambique LNG has invited the authorities of Mozambique to carry out such an investigation as soon as possible,” the statement read. “Mozambique LNG will keep following up with the Mozambican authorities as only they can take the investigations further at this stage.” On November 24, a joint investigation by the French newspaper Le Monde and the investigative news outlet Source Material published similar findings. Two weeks ago, protesters from the Afungi peninsula where the gas plant is located began a blockade at Total’s front gates, holding up signs that read: “Total, we don’t want war. We want our rights.”Friends of the Earth are among a raft of campaigners and lawmakers across Europe calling for an independent United Nations investigation of the atrocity. A spokesperson for the group in France said that by proposing that Mozambican authorities investigate the military’s human rights abusers, TotalEnergies “once again displays its collusion with the very same authorities whose role in and responsibility for these alleged atrocities are currently being called into question.” “Our demand for a truly independent investigation is more needed and urgent than ever,” she said, adding that TotalEnergies’ “complete dismissal of the voices and pain of the victims … reflect very poorly on the company.”

Russia’s Fuel Exports Jump to 8-Month High - Following the end of autumn maintenance season at refineries, Russia’s shipments of refined petroleum products have surged so far in November to their highest level in eight months, data compiled by Bloomberg showed on Wednesday. During the first 20 days of November, Russian fuel exports by sea averaged 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 18% compared to October, according to Bloomberg’s estimates on data compiled from analytics firm Vortexa. The surge in refined product exports came as several refineries returned from maintenance, which boosted crude processing rates and also left lower volumes of crude available for exports. While oil product shipments jumped, Russia’s crude oil exports by sea fell in the four weeks to November 24 compared to the previous four-week average by the steepest volume since July, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed earlier this week. Russia is estimated to have shipped from its oil export terminals an average of 3.12 million bpd of crude oil during the four weeks to November 24, down by 150,000 bpd compared to the previous four-week average to November 17, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. Most of the decline in shipments over the past month was seen at Russia’s Western ports on the Baltic and Black Sea, from where the majority of shipments to India depart. Analysts are looking to gain insights into Russia’s crude production and crude processing levels as Moscow classified this information following the invasion of Ukraine. Of the petroleum products exported so far in November, diesel and naphtha shipments jumped by the most since July 2024 and March 2023, respectively, per the data compiled by Bloomberg. Fuel product exports could further climb in the coming weeks as Russia is poised to lift the gasoline export ban earlier than current plans at the end of the year.

Nigeria’s NNPCL restarts Port Harcourt refinery --Nigeria National Petroleum Corp. Ltd. (NNPCL) has completed rehabilitation and restarted processing and production activities for subsidiary NNPC RefChem Ltd.-held Port Harcourt Refining Co. Ltd.’s (PHRC) existing 60,000-b/sd hydroskimming refinery at Alesa-Eleme near Port Harcourt in Nigeria’s Rivers State (OGJ Online, Apr. 6, 2021).As of Nov. 26, 2024, PHRC was operating at 70% of its nameplate capacity as trucks began loading the recently restarted refinery’s initial production of premium motor spirit (PMS; gasoline), automotive gas oil (AGO; diesel), and household kerosine (HHK) for delivery to domestic markets, NNPCL said in a series of releases.Following years of operational challenges resulting in the site’s underperformance, NNPCL said the completed PHRC rehabilitation project enables the refinery to produce:

• · • 1.4 million l./day of PMS via blending with straight-run gasoline (naphtha).
• • 1.5 million l./day of AGO.
• • 2.1 million l./day of low-pour fuel oil.
• • 900,000 l./day of HHK.
• • An unspecified volume of LPG.

· Alongside plans to ramp up PHRC’s operations to 90% of the site’s nameplate capacity, NNPCL confirmed it has made “substantial progress on the new Port Harcourt [r]efinery, which will begin operations soon without prior announcements.”Part of the PHRC rehabilitation and expansion project launched in 2021 under the Nigerian government’s broader program to rehabilitate and optimize processing capacities of its three state-run refineries—which, in addition to PHRC, include NNPC RefChem-held Warri Refining & Petrochemcial Co. Ltd.’s 125,000-b/sd refinery in Delta State, and Kaduna Refining & Petrochemical Co. Ltd.’s 110,000-b/sd refinery in Kaduna State—included a complete overhaul of the 150,000-b/sd co-located at the “new” Port Harcourt complex (OGJ Online, May 3, 2021).Upon NNPCL’s Nov. 26 announcement, both Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and Farouk Ahmed—chief executive of the Nigerian Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA)—separately expressed the federal government’s reassurance of continued support to NNPCL as it works to complete rehabilitation of the KRPC and WRPC refineries.

Oil spill wey burst like rain, sack communities for Bonny Island Rivers state - BBC News Pidgin - Oil spill from one crude oil piping wey allegedly belong to di Nigerian National Petroleum Company limited (NNPCL) don destroy some communities for Bonny local goment area of Rivers State, Southern Nigeria. One of di community elders Seth L. Adolphus tell BBC say di spill happun on Saturday 23 November 2024 for Iloma community. E say di spill quickly spread to oda surrounding communities sake of di strong current of di river as e dey flow down. "Na around seven to 8pm for night na im we hear loud sound. We bin think say na Navy pipo dey work as dem dey near us but we come feel sometin like rain dey fall on di roofs so we run inside. "Na for di morning of Sunday wen day break we see say na oil spill wey happun and di oil don cover di whole river and di smell dey very strong. So we get to evacuate evribodi comot go Bonny main town." 'Oil spill for Rivers don destroy my farmland and contaminate our water' A community leader for Iloma community, Warisenibo Valentine Hart add say di oil spill don affect di community pipo badly becos dem be mainly fishermen but now dem no fit fish again. E say di oil spill don affect di river and vegetation and displace di pipo as dem gatz comot from dia village. "We dey in distress now becos we no fit go fishing or go pick periwinkle as na wetin our pipo dey take survive. All di farmlands dey affected so we need goment to come clean up di place quick-quick for us so we fit go back home, you know say Bonny no get any IDP camp so na friends and family members we dey manage with for Bonny." Seth Adolphus say some officials bin come close di head of di spill to stop further spills but di spread still dey move wit di river tide and e need immediate remediation. "Di oil spill na bad environmental hazard and we want NNPCL to begin immediate remediation work, for di affected areas and communities to check any further devastation" na so Prof Ibitoru Hart tok. Prof Hart na di Chairman Bonny Environmental Consultants Committee (BECC) and she confam to BBC say di incident happun for pipeline wey dey along pipeline right of way for latitude 4.447338° and longitude 7.192392° for Iloma community, Bonny LGA. For statement wey she sign, Prof Hart say di oil spill don spread reach oda communities like Minima, Ayaminima, Orupiri, Oloma, Epelema, Oguede, Coconut Estate, Okpoma and Burukiri among oda communities for Bonny LGA.

Ruptured Pipeline: Spilled Crude Spreads To More Rivers Communities – Committee - The Bonny Environmental Consultants Committee (BECC), has said the recent oil spill that occurred at Iloma community in Bonny local government area of Rivers State, have spread to more communities in the LGA. This is as it warned residents of the impacted communities in the area not to scoop the spilled crude from the rivers and creeks, pointing out that such a t could be dangerous given the inflammatory nature of crude oil. The spill, which occurred as a result of leakage from a ruptured pipeline belonging to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) last Saturday, had as at Sunday, spread adjourning communities, including Minima, Ayaminima, Orupiri, Oloma, Epelema, Oguede, Coconut Estate, Okpoma, and Burukiri, amongst others. But, BECC, in a statement made available to LEADERSHIP in Port Harcourt yesterday, said at the Monday evening, the spilled crude had spread to Greens Iwoama, Banigo Ishileogono, Polokiri, Dema Abbey, Macaulay, Oroigwe, Madupolo, Dappa-Posie, Igonipolo, Akiama, George Pepple, Allison Ishileogono, Amalgamated Agbalama, William Jumbo, Otobie, and Abalamabie, amongst others. The statement, which was signed by the committee’s chairman and secretary, Professor Ibitoru Hart and Sir Amairigha Hart, said it is currently monitoring tidal movements that are conveying the spilled crude oil from the primary impact area to more communities connected to the main creek from Coal Beach, also in Bonny LGA. It reads in part: “The attention of the Bonny Environmental Consultants Committee (BECC) has been brought to an incident of oil spill on a pipeline along the pipeline right of way at latitude 4.447338⁰ and longitude 7.192392⁰, in Iloma Community and wishes to state as follows: “The Bonny Environmental Consultants Committee (BECC) hereby confirms that an oil spill has occurred at Iloma Community. BECC has taken note of the impact site and affected sites of the oil spill including the primary area of impact, Iloma Community, and adjoining communities, Minima, Ayaminima, Orupiri, Oloma, Epelema, Oguede, Coconut Estate, Okpoma, and Burukiri, amongst others. “BECC has taken note of the spread of the spilled crude been engendered by tidal movement to even far flung communities such as Greens Iwoama, Banigo Ishileogono, Polokiri, Dema Abbey, Macaulay, Oroigwe, Madupolo, Dappa-Posie, Igonipolo, Akiama, George Pepple, Allison Ishileogono, Amalgamated Agbalama, William Jumbo, Otobie, and Abalamabie, amongst others. “BECC is currently monitoring tidal movements that are conveying the spilled crude oil from the primary impact area to more communities connected to the main creek from Coal Beach to which the Iloma, Epelema, Minima, and other communities’ creeks connect to. “BECC has taken note of the several hectares of farmlands, verdant vegetation, fishing areas comprising creeks, rivers, rivulets and waterfronts severely impacted by the spilled crude oil. For instance, Epelema, Iloma, Orupiri, Minima, Ayaminima, and Oguede have now been rendered inaccessible by outboard powered engine boats due to the high volume of crude oil on the water. No fishing activities can also happen in any of those areas. “BECC has also taken cognizance of the forests around the impacted communities that were splashed with crude oil when the pipeline burst open. This vegetation will be dead in a couple of days, just as the soil underneath cannot be cultivated due to pollution. “BECC is also in the process of checking out the range of aquatic life comprising fishes and other sea foods that have been destroyed due to the spill. These include the tilapia, croaker, mudfish, crabs, reptiles, etc. “BECC has also inspected the pipeline and taken note of the flange on it, the surrounding environment, equipment on site, range of spill, and also spoken to locals on the incident and has reason to believe that the incident was a third party orchestrated incident. “BECC notes with displeasure that the NNPCL either by itself or through its subsidiary would send a maintenance team to Iloma Community without any form of engagement with BECC or the impacted communities. This is a recipe for crisis as it smacks of disregard for Bonny Kingdom, which BECC environmentally represents. “BECC instantly calls on the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) to activate containment and remedial measures to checkmate further devastation and take responsibility for the evacuation of Bonny indigenes around the impacted areas both immediate and remote. “BECC further calls on the NNPC to immediately engage with it to fashion out a strategy plan for containment, clean-up and compensation to the impacted and affected communities. “BECC commends the security agencies, the 146 Battalion Nigerian Army and the Nigerian Navy Forward Operating Base for their proactive initiative of asserting security governance around the impacted sites to forestall further encroachments and exposure to danger. “BECC also calls on the people of Bonny in the various impacted and affected communities to remain calm as measures are being taken to remedy the situation. The leaders of the various communities are called upon to interface with BECC to agree on the engagement plan for the resolution of this unfortunate incident.”

Chinese Buyers Soak Up Unsold Oil as Iranian Crude Flows Slow-- China’s independent refiners have snapped up barrels from across the Middle East and Africa as offers of Iranian oil remain scarcer and more expensive than usual, in part due to broadening US sanctions. A large processor bought about 10 million barrels of grades from Abu Dhabi and Qatar, according to traders who asked not to be identified. The cargoes are for loading in December and January, and helped to clear an overhang of unsold crude from previous trading cycles, they added. China’s independent refiners, known as teapots, typically favor cheaper Iranian crude and take around 90% of the OPEC producer’s exports, but a slowdown in the amount of oil available to purchase has forced a change in buying habits. The incoming Trump administration has also led to some large processors backing away from Tehran’s crude due to their exposure to US banking, according to Energy Aspects. Traders and shippers put the scarcity of Iranian supply down to the broadening of US sanctions in October to include more dark fleet tankers plying the Iran-China trade. That move has crimped the number of vessels available for ship-to-ship transfers, tightening supply and driving prices higher. Flows of Iranian oil to China have dipped more than 10% this month compared with October, according to Kpler. Meanwhile, the volume of West African crude is at the highest on a monthly basis in at least two years, partly driven by the spike in Iranian oil prices, Sentosa Shipbrokers wrote in a report. Beijing’s move to issue more import quotas to teapots has also spurred buying activity, traders said. Refiners were asked to submit requests to purchase more crude a few months ago and were provided verbal approvals this week, but some started buying ahead of the confirmation, they added. Refiners in Shandong province collectively sought an allocation of about 3.8 million tons, or 28.5 million barrels, which will be valid until the end of the year, according to traders.

Iranian crude oil offer levels for China's independent refiners rise as supplies tighten | S&P Global Commodity Insights - Iranian crude oil offer levels for China's independent refineries have been rising in November, as suppliers and shipowners remain cautious amid expectations of tighter sanctions under the Trump administration, refinery and trade sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights on Nov. 26. In late November, Iranian Light deals were concluded at discounts in the $2.0-$2.5/b range against ICE Brent futures on a DES Shandong basis, narrowing from discounts in the $2.5-$3.0/b range for deals concluded two weeks earlier, trade sources said. Iranian Heavy cargoes were sold at thinner discounts in the $4.8-$5.3/b range against the same benchmark, compared with discounts in the $5.5-$6.0/b range a few weeks ago. "Iranian crudes have become expensive but are still competitive," said a refinery source in China. "Some independent refineries are willing to buy but [have] failed to source enough feedstock to meet their needs." Preliminary monthly Commodity Insights data show that about 4.5 million mt (33 million barrels) of Iranian crude has been discharged in 2024 for China's independent refineries as of Nov. 25. This suggested that November arrivals could fall from 6.54 million mt (1.55 million b/d) in October.The latest US sanctions on Iran, in response to its missile attacks on Israel, are expected to tighten crude flows to China.Washington broadened the scope of its sanctions Oct. 11 and utilized other sanction authorities to designate 23 vessels and 16 entities involved in the ghost fleet facilitating Tehran's petroleum trade."Fewer [Iranian] suppliers [are] offering cargoes. It looks difficult for them to get the cargoes because of the enhanced US sanctions," said a trade source in Shandong.Another trade source in China said that not many shipowners are willing to do ship-to-ship transfers in East Asia, resulting in reduced volumes of Iranian crude being available to Chinese buyers."The loading volumes from Iran might not fall that much, but fewer [cargoes] have arrived," the trade source said, adding that the volume might fall to about 1.3 million b/d for November arrivals.Iran has 155 shadow ships with 35.7 million deadweight tonnage, including more than 90 VLCCs that are often active in the Persian Gulf, East Asian waters and even occasionally in the Gulf of Guinea.Market participants generally expect US President-elect Donald Trump to adopt a tough stance on Iranian crude exports, which could reduce the cargoes available for China's independent refineries. However, with Iran focusing on its shadow trade, the full effect of Trump's sanctions might be harder to achieve.The average refining margin for processing imported crudes at small refineries in Shandong jumped 26.7% from a week earlier to Yuan 228/mt ($4.33/b) as of Nov. 21, while the average utilization rate at those refineries was around 52.2%, about 0.77 percentage points higher from a week earlier, data from OilChem showed.

Azerbaijan says OPEC+ may extend oil output cuts at December meeting -- OPEC+ may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1 at its next meeting on Dec. 1, Azerbaijan's Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters, as the group had already postponed hikes amid demand worries. OPEC+, which pumps around half the world's oil, will discuss extending production cuts at the forthcoming meeting, Shahbazov said, but he expressed skepticism about the prospects for the talks. He pointed out that Azerbaijan, an OPEC+ member, seeks to stabilize its oil production until 2030, after it fell from its peak in 2010. His country's oil production in 2024 and 2025 is bound to reach about 29 million tons annually, or 580,000 barrels per day. Azerbaijan's gas exports to Europe are poised to average 12.5 billion cubic meters per annum this year and next. The minister said he expects gas production to reach 50 billion cubic meters this year, of which 25 billion cubic meters will be exported, with production seen to rise in 2025.

Crude oil prices slippery amid signs of escalation in Ukraine war | Euronews --After reaching a two-week high, crude oil prices fell back on Monday as investors rebalanced positions in major asset classes. However, bullish factors remain in the near term as geopolitical tensions rise. Crude oil prices rose to a two-week high amid a major escalation in the Ukraine and Russia war. The Brent futures at ICEsurged 5.8% and the WTI futures at NYMEX rallied 6.3% last week. However, the upside momentum faltered during the Asian session on Monday, most likely due to positions rebalancing in major asset classes. Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone London wrote in a note: "I'd be reluctant to buy into the rally here, though, instead seeking to fade any geopolitical risk premium priced into crude." At 6.30 am CET, the Brent futures fell 0.72% to $74.63 per barrel, and WTI futures declined 0.53% to $70.71 per barrel. The war-induced rally in gold and the US dollar have all lost steam as the precious metal prices slumped 1.7%, erasing Friday's gains, and the dollar index retreated from a two-year high, declining 0.5%. Despite the price retreat, crude markets may maintain bullish trends as the year-end approaches. Geopolitical tensions and a potential revival in China's demands will likely contribute to further rebounds in the oil markets in the near term. Ukraine carried out US-made longer-range missiles targeting a military base inside Russian territory one week ago. In response, Russia warned of lowering its doctrine to use nuclear weapons and fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine, marking a major escalation in the geopolitical tensions between the West and Russia. The concerns surround potential supply disruptions if Ukraine attacks Russia's oil and gas infrastructure. The escalation may continue this week as Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine had been targeted by nearly 500 drones and become "a testing ground" for Russia's munitions. In the Middle East, traders are closely monitoring the risk of a retaliatory strike on Iran's oil infrastructure by Israel amidst escalating tensions between the two nations. According to S&P Global, Iran's crude oil loadings have slowed since October. Meanwhile, the International Atomic Energy Agency's Board (IAEA) passed a resolution to pressure Iran into a new round of nuclear talks. A meeting between Iran and the European counterparties, Germany, and Britain will be held this Friday, Reuters reported. Parties are progressing toward an agreement before Trump comes into power in January. The US presidential-elect is expected to reinforce restrictions on Iran's oil exports, which could lead to one million bpd cuts, or 1% of the world's supply if this happens. Iran is the world's third-largest oil reserve holder in 2023. However, its production has been limited due to the US sanctions for several years. Expectations for a revival of China's imports in November were another catalyst that buoyed oil prices. China's crude import may reach 11.4 million barrels per day this month due to price cuts, the third-highest monthly shipment this year, according to LSEG Oil Research. A report from S&P Global showed China's oil demand may grow by 1.1% to 17.29 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 1.7% to 17.59 million bpd in 2025. China announced sweeping stimulus measures in September and ongoing implementation of further easing policies to bolster the economy. The recent economic data showed that China's exports surged 12.7% year on year to $309.06bn in October, the highest increase since Mach 2023. China's retail sales, manufacturing activities, and housing markets have all seen better-than-expected readings last month. Despite China's optimism, analysts from Commodity Insights believe that rising production in the US and Canada, coupled with production hikes in the OPEC+, will potentially lead to a balanced demand and supply market, offsetting the price impact of rising demands.

The Oil Market Sold Off Following Reports of a Possible Middle East Peace Agreement - The oil market sold off sharply on Monday following reports of a possible Middle East peace agreement. The crude market posted a high of $71.48 on its opening late Sunday before it began to retrace its previous gains as it failed to test its previous high of $71.51. The oil market sold off sharply and retraced more than 50% of its move from a low of $66.53 to a high of $71.51 as it sold off to a low of $68.74 early in the afternoon. The market was pressured by the news that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The January WTI contract settled down $2.30 at $68.94 and the January Brent contract settled down $2.16 at $73.01. The product markets ended the session sharply lower, with the heating oil market settling down 3.96 cents at $2.2353 and the RB market settling down 6.09 cents at $2.0005. Axios reported, citing an unnamed senior U.S. official, that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. On Monday, Israel’s government said it was moving towards a ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah but there were still outstanding issues. Separately, a senior Israeli official said Israel’s cabinet will meet on Tuesday to approve a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah, while a Lebanese official said Beirut had been told by Washington that an accord could be announced “within hours”. Elias Bou Saab, Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker, told Reuters there were “no serious obstacles” left to start implementing a U.S.-proposed ceasefire with Israel, “unless Netanyahu changes his mind”. He said the proposal would entail an Israeli military withdrawal from south Lebanon and regular Lebanese army troops deploying in the border region within 60 days. The Kremlin said it had noted that “President-elect Donald Trump’s circle was speaking about a potential peace plan for Ukraine while the current U.S. administration of Joe Biden was not and was seeking to escalate the conflict instead.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made his remarks after being asked to comment on an interview that Mike Waltz, President-elect Trump’s pick for national security adviser, gave to Fox News on Sunday. The nominee for national security adviser said that Trump had been “very concerned” about an escalation in fighting between Russia and Ukraine and that the war must be brought “to a responsible end”. The Kremlin’s spokesman said the Kremlin had taken note of the comments and that President Vladimir Putin had repeatedly signaled that Moscow was ready for dialogue over Ukraine. Sources stated that OPEC+ will hold its December 1^st meeting to set oil policy online, with the producer group set to discuss a further delay to plans to increase its output due to weak global oil demand.IIR Energy reported that U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 145,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 29^th, increasing available refining capacity by 312,000 bpd. It reported that offline capacity is expected to fall to 21,000 bpd in the week ending December 6^th

Oil falls more than $2 a barrel on possible Middle East peace deal (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Monday after multiple reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to the terms of a deal to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, citing unnamed senior U.S. officials. Brent crude futures settled at $73.01 a barrel, down $2.16, or 2.87%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $68.94 a barrel, down $2.30 or 3.23%. Israel said on Monday it is moving toward a ceasefire in the war with Hezbollah but there are still issues to address, while Lebanese officials voiced guarded optimism but said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was not to be trusted. "It seems the news of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon is behind the price drop, though no supply has been disrupted due to the conflict between the two countries and the risk premium in oil has been low already before the latest price decline," said Giovanni Staunovo of UBS. Oil markets are being pushed up and down on rising or falling supply disruption fears, Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said in a Monday note. "A report that Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu approves Lebanon ceasefire deal in principle could be a bearish catalyst, yet we must see more details as they become available. Last week the world was stunned as Russia launched supersonic missiles" at Ukraine, Flynn wrote in his energy report. Both Brent and US WTI contracts last week notched their biggest weekly gains since late September to reach their highest settlement levels since Nov. 7 after Russia fired a hypersonic missile at Ukraine in a warning to the United States and the UK following strikes by Ukraine on Russia using U.S. and British weapons. OPEC+, at its next meeting on Sunday, may consider leaving its current oil output cuts in place from Jan. 1, Azerbaijan's Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov told Reuters. The group, which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus allies like Russia, has postponed hikes this year amid demand worries. Azerbaijan is a member of OPEC+, which will meet online on Dec. 1.

Oil settles down after Israel agrees to ceasefire deal with Hezbollah (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday, extending the previous day's losses in choppy trade after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah, reducing oil's risk premium. Brent crude futures settled down 20 cents, or 0.27%, to $72.81 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $68.77 a barrel, down 17 cents, or 0.25%. The accord between Israel and armed group Hezbollah was expected to take effect on Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden said. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was ready to implement a ceasefire and would "respond forcefully to any violation" by Hezbollah. On Monday, oil prices fell more than $2 following multiple reports that the warring sides had agreed to terms of a ceasefire. A ceasefire could pressure crude oil prices because the U.S. administration would likely reduce sanctions on oil from Iran, a supporter of Hezbollah, Both benchmarks briefly jumped more than $1 per barrel during the session. "We popped and dropped around the time news came out of the resumption of OPEC talks," OPEC+ nations are discussing a further delay to a planned oil-output hike that was due to start in January, two sources from the producer group said, ahead of Sunday's meeting to decide policy for early 2025. The group pumps about half the world's oil, and had planned to gradually roll back oil-production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan. "There were embers in the fire this morning with OPEC+ looking to defer production increases again and the Trump tariffs, but those were not enough to move the needle to support prices anywhere above $70 a barrel for WTI," U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, two sources familiar with the plan told Reuters on Tuesday. Maintaining the flow of energy products across the U.S. borders with Mexico and Canada is critical, the top U.S. oil and gas lobbying group, American Petroleum Institute, said. The vast majority of Canada's 4 million barrels per day of crude exports go to the U.S. Analysts had said it was unlikely Trump would impose tariffs on Canadian oil, which cannot be easily replaced since it differs from grades that the U.S. produces. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stocks fell while fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said, citing API figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks fell by 5.94 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.81 million barrels and distillate stocks climbed by 2.54 million barrels, they said.

Oil Prices Steady After Significant Decline | Rigzone -- In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Christopher Tahir, a senior market strategist at Exness, said oil prices steadied in early trading following a significant decline in the previous session as traders assessed the potential for a ceasefire in the Middle East. “The earlier selloff was triggered by reports indicating that the belligerents in the conflict could reach an agreement, alleviating concerns over potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supply,” Tahir said in the analysis. “As fears of supply disruptions ease, the market could see a more bearish outlook, although volatility and some risks could remain if the geopolitical situation changes,” he added. The strategist noted in the analysis that, at the same time, OPEC+ could consider maintaining its current production cuts in response to ongoing concerns about weak global demand for oil. “In this regard, traders could closely monitor the organization’s next meeting for any changes in production policy,” Tahir said. “Furthermore, with the potential for increased U.S. oil production, which has remained near record levels in recent years, the market could anticipate additional supply growth,” Tahir warned. “Considering the prevailing global demand-supply imbalance, along with geopolitical developments and policy risks, the medium-term outlook for crude could remain bearish, driven by signs of weaker demand and the likelihood of sustained production increases,” the strategist added. In a separate market analysis sent to Rigzone today, Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone, flagged “weakness in the commodities space” yesterday. “Despite a softer USD, there was notable weakness in the commodities space, with both gold and crude (both Brent and WTI) losing around three percent on the day [Monday], in an apparent unwind of the increased geopolitical risk premium priced into both prior to the weekend,” Brown said in the analysis. In another market analysis sent to Rigzone earlier today, Antonio Di Giacomo, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said the price of WTI crude oil saw a notable drop on Monday, “falling by more than $2.00, representing a decline of over 2.50 percent, closing at around $69.00 per barrel”. “Reports suggesting a potential ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon may have primarily influenced this drop,” he added. “Although the markets were affected by these rumors, it is important to highlight that there were no disruptions in oil supply due to the conflict, meaning the global supply-demand balance should not have been altered,” Di Giacomo continued. In the analysis, the senior market analyst highlighted that the decline in WTI reflects how energy markets respond to expectations of changes in geopolitical risks. “Investors, sensitive to any potential disruption in crude oil supply security, quickly react to news suggesting a de-escalation of international tensions. In this case, the possibility of a ceasefire reduced the risk premium associated with oil, leading to a price drop,” Di Giacomo said. “This behavior in oil prices is also framed within a broader context of fluctuations driven by international conflicts. Although the conflict between Israel and Lebanon had not directly disrupted supply, the perception of reduced geopolitical risks alleviated the uncertainty, pushing higher prices,” he added. “It is a clear example of how external factors can influence energy markets beyond the fundamental conditions of supply and demand,” he went on to state. Di Giacomo highlighted in the analysis that, in contrast, last week, the price of WTI “experienced a sharp rebound, driven by tensions in Ukraine”. “These conflicts had raised concerns over the risk of supply disruptions, which led to a spike in crude oil prices, reaching the highest levels since early November,” he said. “Oil price fluctuations reflect market dynamics and the emotional responses and expectations of investors in the face of global uncertainty,” he pointed out. “In this context, it is evident that the oil market is highly sensitive to changes in the geopolitical landscape. Crude oil prices are often more a response to investors’ expectations than actual events,” he continued. In the analysis, Di Giacomo also warned that this week’s drop could be temporary if international tensions rise again, “underscoring the inherent volatility in commodity markets”.

Oil prices rise, with focus on Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and Opec+ policy Oil prices edged up on Wednesday, with markets assessing the potential impact of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah and Sunday's OPEC+ meeting, in which the group could delay a planned increase to oil output. Brent crude futures rose 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.10 a barrel by 0750 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 26 cents, or 0.4%, at $69.03. Both benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon's Hezbollah. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah came into effect on Wednesday after both sides accepted the agreement brokered by the U.S. and France. The accord cleared the way for an end to a conflict across the Israeli-Lebanese border, which has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the Gaza war last year. "Market participants are assessing whether the ceasefire will be observed," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, part of Nissan Securities. "We expect WTI to trade within the range of $65-$70 a barrel, factoring in weather conditions during the Northern Hemisphere's winter, a potential increase in shale oil and gas production under the incoming Donald Trump administration in the U.S. and demand trends in China." Heads of commodities research at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley said that oil prices are undervalued, citing a market deficit and risk to Iranian supply from possible sanctions under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Sources from the OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia have said the producer group is discussing a further delay to the oil output increase that was due to start in January. OPEC+, which meets on Dec. 1 to decide policy for early 2025, pumps about half the world's oil and had planned to roll back oil production cuts gradually over 2024 and 2025. But a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, as well as rising output outside the group, have put a dampener on that plan. "Our longstanding base case has been that OPEC+ defers the tapering of output cuts all the way through 2025," Citi Research analysts said in a note, adding that the tapering could start in April instead of January. "From the producer group's point of view, holding off the unwind could allow the market the chance to be more balanced, via supply disruptions or more resilient demand, while bringing barrels back makes lower prices a foregone conclusion." In America, President-elect Trump said that he would impose a 25% tariff on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Crude oil would not be exempt from the trade penalties, sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil stocks fell and fuel inventories rose last week, market sources said on Tuesday, citing API figures. Crude stocks fell by 5.94 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, exceeding analyst expectations of a drop of about 600,000 barrels. -

WTI Dips After Smaller Than Expected Crude Draw - Despite the Israel-Lebanon truce holding (for now), oil prices inched higher overnight after API reported a sizable crude draw and on speculation that OPEC+ will delay restoring output. “On one hand, OPEC+ appears to be reluctant to unwind, given concerns over weak oil demand and market consensus that 2025 looks like a surplus year for oil balances,” Citigroup Inc. analysts including Eric Lee wrote in a note. “On the other hand, deeper cuts also seem unlikely, with prices still above $70 Brent, global observable oil inventories relatively low, and some geopolitical risk still in the market.” Will the official data confirm API's? API

• Crude -5.9mm
• Cushing -734k
• Gasoline +1.8mm
• Distillates +2.5mm

DOE

• Crude -1.844mm
• Cushing -909k
• Gasoline +3.314mm
• Distillates +416k

The official data confirmed a drawdown in crude stocks and at the Cushing hub while Gasoline inventories rose the most since July... Overall, including a 1.17mm barrel add to SPR, crude inventories declined 672k barrels - the most since the second week of October... Source: Bloomberg After last week' dip, US crude production ramped back up to record highs this week... WTI dipped on the smaller than expected crude draw.. Price moves were exacerbated by thin pre-holiday trading, with open interest hovering near monthly lows.

OPEC+ production cuts may support oil prices in near term, Goldman Sachs says --(Reuters) - Crude production from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia has declined in compliance with OPEC+ production cuts, supporting a modest near term upside to Brent prices, Goldman Sachs said. Saudi Arabia is more likely to extend oil production cuts because of the recent price drop and we now think that oil production cuts will last until April 2025 instead of January, the investment bank said in a note dated Tuesday. Goldman Sachs maintained its average Brent price forecast for 2025 at $76 per barrel. OPEC+, which includes members of the OPEC and allies such as Russia, is discussing a further delay to a planned oil output hike that was due to start in January, two sources from the group said. At its most recent meeting on Nov. 3, OPEC+ agreed to delay a planned December output increase by a month. "Any ramp-up in OPEC+ production will be gradual and data-driven," the bank said. Goldman added that rising compliance with OPEC+ production cuts suggests that the group's member countries are working together to stabilize oil prices. Production from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia declined by 0.5 million barrels per day in November, Goldman said. OPEC member countries are unlikely to unwind voluntary production cuts in the short term, executives of global commodity trading giants Vitol, Trafigura and Gunvor said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. However, despite OPEC+'s production cuts and delays to output hikes, Brent futures have mostly stayed in a $70-$80 range this year, and were trading below $74 on Tuesday. Last week, Goldman Sachs revised Brent prices to average around $80 per barrel this year, despite a 2024 deficit and geopolitical uncertainty, citing an anticipated surplus in 2025.

Oil steady after surprise rise in US gasoline stocks (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday, pressured by a large surprise build in U.S. gasoline stocks and worries about U.S. interest rate cuts next year, but prices drew support from concerns about supply eased after a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. Brent crude futures settled 2 cents higher at $72.83 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 5 cents to $68.72. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.3 million barrels in the week to 212.2 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said, counter to analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a draw of 46,000 barrels.​ Crude stocks fell by 1.8 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 22, the EIA added, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a draw of 605,000 barrels. Market sources, citing the American Petroleum Institute, had said on Tuesday that oil inventories fell by 5.94 million barrels and fuel inventories rose last week. "It is surprising to see gasoline inventories building so much and implied demand not really budging week-on-week, given expected record travel this Thanksgiving," Oil prices also were dented by U.S. data showing progress on lowering inflation appears to have stalled in recent months, which could narrow the scope for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025. Traders added to bets the U.S. central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points at its Dec. 17-18 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, they anticipate the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its meetings in January and March. Slower-than-expected rate cuts would keep the cost of borrowing elevated, which could slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil. Both oil benchmarks settled lower on Tuesday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire deal with Lebanon's Hezbollah group, effective Wednesday after both sides accepted the agreement brokered by the U.S. and France. The ceasefire started on Wednesday. "The real question will be for how long it (the ceasefire) will truly be honoured," Oil gained support after sources from the OPEC+ group, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, said it is discussing a further delay to the oil output increase set for January. The group, which produces about half of the world's oil, had aimed to gradually ease production cuts through 2024 and 2025, but weaker global demand and rising output outside OPEC+ have cast doubt on that plan. The decision will be made at a Dec. 1 meeting. The heads of commodities research at Goldman Sachs (GS.N), opens new tab and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), opens new tab said oil prices are undervalued, citing a market deficit and risk to Iranian supply from possible sanctions when U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Sources also told Reuters on Tuesday that crude oil would not be exempt from the 25% tariffs that Trump has threatened to impose on all products coming into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. Oil industry analysts and traders warned the move would likely raise oil prices for U.S. refiners, squeezing margins and driving up the cost of fuel.

Crude oil prices fall as US gasoline inventory increases - Crude oil futures traded lower on Thursday morning following an increase in gasoline inventory levels in the US for the week ending November 22. At 9.56 am on Thursday, February Brent oil futures were at $72.16, down by 0.19 per cent, and January crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $68.56, down by 0.23 per cent. December crude oil futures were trading at ₹5,808 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹5,781, up by 0.47 per cent, and January futures were trading at ₹5,795 against the previous close of ₹5,769, up by 0.45 per cent. The weekly petroleum status report by the US EIA (Energy Information Administration) said that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels for the week ending November 22. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week. As the US heads into the Thanksgiving holiday, an increase in the gasoline inventory levels has raised worries about fuel demand in the US market. US is a major consumer of crude oil in the world market. Meanwhile, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 428.4 million barrels, US crude oil inventories were about 5 per cent below the five-year average for this time of year. Total products supplied in the US over the last four-week period averaged 20.4 million barrels a day, up by 1 per cent from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels a day, up slightly from the same period last year. US crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million barrels a day last week, a decrease of 1.6 million barrels a day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.6 million barrels a day, 5.5 per cent more than the same four-week period last year. Meanwhile, market is keenly waiting for the outcome of the OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and allies) meeting on December 1. A Reuters report said on Wednesday that OPEC+ is likely to further delay the proposed increase in crude oil production output. It is to be noted here that OPEC+ had planned to gradually roll back oil production cuts with small increases over many months in 2024 and 2025. Factors such as a slowdown in Chinese and global demand, and rising output outside OPEC block have put a dampener on that plan. December natural gas futures were trading at ₹270.20 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹272, down by 0.66 per cent. On the National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), December cottonseed oilcake contracts were trading at ₹2,745 in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹2,735, up by 0.37 per cent. December turmeric (farmer polished) futures were trading at ₹13,406 on NCDEX in the initial hour of trading on Thursday against the previous close of ₹13,510, down by 0.77 per cent.

Oil Steady in Thin Trading After OPEC+ Delays Supply Meeting - Oil was steady as traders watched for any further clues to OPEC+’s production plans after it delayed a key virtual meeting by four days. Brent crude traded near $73 a barrel after a modest gain on Thursday, with West Texas Intermediate close to $69. The producer group is now set to discuss whether to start reviving supplies, which could tip the market into a glut, at an online gathering on Dec. 5. Delegates said earlier this week that talks have begun on delaying the move. Crude has traded in a tight range since the middle of October, flipping between consecutive weekly gains and losses. Prices have been buffeted by fluctuating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, waning demand in top importer China and concerns whether President-elect Donald Trump’s upcoming policies could affect supply from Russia and Iran. “The crude oil market continues to face uncertainties” around weather, demand and geopolitical developments, said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist for Saxo Markets Pte in Singapore. “These, together with market oversupply, raise doubts over OPEC+ unwinding its voluntary production cuts.” Brent futures remain on track for a weekly loss of almost 3% as a cease-fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah removed some risk that the conflict would affect supply from the region or affect shipping. Tensions are rising in Ukraine, however, with President Vladimir Putin warning Russian forces could strike “decision-making centers” in Kyiv with new ballistic missiles. Trading volumes were lower due to Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday in the US, with just over 2.25 million contracts of WTI changing hands so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s about half the average weekly volume over the past year.

Oil settles down as ease of supply risks drives weekly loss (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Friday and posted a weekly decline of more than 3%, pressured by easing concern over supply risks from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict and the prospect of increased supply in 2025 even as OPEC+ is expected to extend output cuts. Brent crude fell 34 cents, or 0.46%, to settle at $72.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 72 cents, or 1.05%, to settle at $68, from the last close before Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. Trading activity was muted because of the U.S. public holiday. For the week, Brent declined 3.1% while WTI lost 4.8%. Four Israeli tanks entered a Lebanese border village, Lebanon's official news agency said on Friday. The ceasefire that took effect on Wednesday has reduced oil's risk premium, sending prices lower, despite accusations of violations by both sides. However, the Middle East conflict has not disrupted supply, which is expected to be more ample in 2025. The International Energy Agency sees the prospect of more than 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of excess supply, equal to more than 1% of global output. "The updated snapshot insinuates that next year promises to be looser than the current one and oil prices are to average below the 2024 level," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed its next policy meeting to Dec. 5 from Dec. 1. OPEC+ is expected to decide on a further extension to production cuts at the meeting. "Following two postponements, the group has to consider the risk of further price weakness amid the release of currently unwanted barrels, not least because expectations for robust production from non-OPEC+ producers next year could lead to a crude surplus," Brent could average $74.53 a barrel in 2025, a Reuters poll of 41 analysts suggests. That marked the seventh consecutive monthly downward revision in the Reuters poll.

Oil prices suffer November drop as Middle East fears ease, OPEC+ delays meeting - Oil futures fell Friday, booking weekly and monthly losses after a cease-fire this week between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah helped soothe remaining worries over a wider conflict that could threaten crude supplies. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - known together as OPEC+ - delayed a planned meeting set for Sunday until Dec. 5.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery fell 72 cents, or 1.1%, to close at $68 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, leaving it with a weekly loss of around 4.6% and a monthly decline of 1.8%. WTI futures didn't settle Thursday due to the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
• -- January Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped 34 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $72.94 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, leaving it with a weekly fall of 3% and a November loss of 0.3%.
• -- December gasoline RBZ24 fell 2.97 cents, or 1.5%, to finish at $1.9437 a gallon, while December heating oil HOZ24 declined 0.5% to $2.193 a gallon.
• -- January natural-gas futures NGF25 gained 5% to finish at $3.363 per million British thermal units.

The cease-fire agreement announced earlier this week has been blamed for softness in crude, but prices had steadied ahead of a planned Sunday OPEC+ meeting that was widely expected to see the group announce another delay to its plan to begin unwinding production cuts. OPEC said Thursday the meeting, which will be held online, had been postponed to Dec. 5 because "several Ministers will be attending the 45th Gulf Summit in Kuwait City." The postponement weighed on crude prices, analysts said. "Officially, scheduling conflicts are cited as the reason, but there is also speculation whether - as has often been the case in the past - there are difficulties in formulating a joint production strategy," Barbara Lambrecht, commodity strategist at Commerzbank, said in a note. "However, we suspect that this is more about individual quotas than the overall strategy," she said. OPEC+ had initially planned to begin unwinding around 2.2 million barrels a day of production cuts in October but subsequently delayed the start until Dec. 1. Earlier this month, the group agreed to further delay the production increase until the end of December. Lambrecht said Commerzbank was sticking to its view that OPEC+ is likely to postpone the production increase for at least another three months, "as otherwise there would be a risk of massive oversupply on the oil market."

Hundreds Killed in Heavy Fighting as Syrian Islamist Rebels Push Toward Aleppo -The Syrian Civil War never really ended, but it certainly had quieted down for a time, with various factions confined to various areas, and the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seeming stuck in Idlib Province. Today the war is flaring up again in a big way.HTS forces have pushed eastward out of Idlib into the western part of Aleppo Province and toward Aleppo itself, seizing several towns along the way. It is being reported that around 182 people have been killed Thursday alone in the fighting on the ground in the area. That includes 102 HTS fighters and 80 fighters including both Syrian troops and their allies.The battles are still ongoing, and the toll continues to increase all the time. The Syrian military seems to be seeing substantial backing from Russian air assets in the area. The HTS is also reported using Ukrainian drones against the Syrian forces. It has been reported for months that Ukraine has offered “drones for fighters” to HTS, but this would mark the first time such drones are being used in a big way in combat.On top of those killed in the ongoing fighting, the Syrian and Russian air forces have caused substantial civilian casualties. 19 civilians were killed in attacks in and around al-Atareb and Darat Izza, and at least 26 others were wounded. Both of those cities are about 25 km from Aleppo itself, the largest city in Syria, underscoring how quickly the HTS has advanced.A number of other towns and villages reported airstrikes in the area. Al-Nayrab is by far the closest town to Aleppo to have reported strikes, saying they were hit twice. They are only about 10 km from Aleppo, making them virtually a suburb of the major city.HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government. It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.The West has a history of backing some of the more local Sunni Islamist groups in the Syrian Civil War. Indeed, the HTS ties with Ukraine’s government underscores that many see them as a practical partner in their respective regional wars. This could be a growing concern for the Syrian government, as what was once a contained problem in the Idlib Province looks to explode outward starting many of the same fights all over again.

Hundreds Dead, Fighting Rages as Syrian Islamist Rebels Reach Aleppo -Beginning late Wednesday, the Syrian Islamist rebel faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched a major offensive out of the Idlib Province into the Aleppo Province. The result is heavy fighting and airstrikes, and it is now being reported HTS has reached the city of Aleppo itself. HTS captured over 50 towns and villages on the way from Idlib Province to Aleppo, which is the second largest city in Syria. The most recent figure available is that as many as 400 people, mostly combatants, have been killed in the fighting. A number of others have also been killed in airstrikesby Syria and Russia’s air forces, at least 19 on Thursday alone. The Russia-backed counter-offensive was aimed at keeping HTS out of the important city, which before the Syrian Civil War was the nation’s industrial hub. It seems HTS has reached at least five neighborhoods of Aleppo, in western districts of the town.Syria’s Army was a lot more upbeat on their prospects, saying they had “repelled” a major offensive into Aleppo, despite evidence that HTS forces are still in the city and some claims their fighter had reached the city’s center. The army also reported that they had reclaimed some towns and villages lost yesterday in the offensive, though that can’t yet be confirmed.It is fair to say the counter-offensive isn’t going as well as planned, and there are some reports indicating that Russia’s heavy air commitment to the ongoing Ukraine War meant a smaller force left behind in Syria, and that force was slow to react to the surprise offensive. Syria’s military has reportedly added special forces into the area of western Aleppo. This is likely a response to how poorly the fight has been going on the ground, and the fact that this fight is including more than just HTS fighters.Indeed, the Turkish-backed Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has joined the HTS offensive, and is fighting against Syrian forces in the same area.HTS has dubbed their offensive operation “Deter the Aggression,” and says the effort is meant to prevent Syria, Russia and Iran from pushing into Idlib Province, which they hold. The fighting has also shut down the M5 highway, which connects Damascus and Aleppo. They have also reportedly neared the M4 highway, which leads eastward out of Aleppo. That’s likely to make deployments of further reinforcements by Syria’s government more difficult in the days to come.HTS formed in early 2017 as a merger of several Islamist militant groups, centering initially around fighting Jabhat al-Nusra but ultimately merging with them as well. Jabhat al-Nusra was effectively the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda, though they broke with them publicly in 2016. Despite that, HTS maintains much of the underlying rhetoric of al-Qaeda.Publicly, HTS and their leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani has tried to disavow al-Qaeda and ISIS and has courted favor with the US. He has styled the civilian body in HTS-dominated Idlib the Syrian Salvation Government. It has long been suspected that this rebranding was more about trying to turn Syrian Sunni Islamist factions into a more palatable partner for Western involvement in the region than any major ideological differences with the international jihadists.

Syrian Islamist Rebels Seize Aleppo, Army Vows Counterattack - After several days of blisteringly fast gain, the Syrian Islamist rebel force led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has forced Syrian Army forces to withdraw and has taken the major northern city of Aleppo. There has been video footage of rebel forces outside the police HQ in central Aleppo, as well as near the historic Aleppo Citadel, which is a UNESCO World Heritage site.The offensive began late Wednesday, with HTS fighters pushing out of Idlib Province and into the Aleppo Province countryside. There was intense fighting both Thursday and Friday, with the HTS, backed by the Turkish-backed rebel factions, capturing scores of towns and villages, By late Friday they arrived at the outskirts of Aleppo, and they pushed into the city itself Saturday. Many hundreds of people have been killed, though exact figures are not available, and may not be for some time.The Syrian Army is talking about launching a counteroffensive to retake Aleppo, and reinforcements are said to be en route to the area. Both main highways leading to Aleppo have been blocked, however, so the trek into the area is likely to be difficult.HTS and associated fighters appear to be in almost all neighborhoods of Aleppo now. They have taken the airport, and Kurdish YPG fighters arepreparing to try to defend the Kurdish neighborhood of the city.Thousands of ethnic Kurds have reportedly fled east into Kurdish-controlled Syria in anticipation of the fight.The fall of Aleppo is hugely significant, not just because of its size. The rebels had a history holding it in earlier parts of the Syrian Civil War, and the Syrian Army’s capture of the city in December 2016 was seen as a major turning point. The civil war never really ended though, and now the city seems to once again be in play for the rebels.But fighting in Aleppo is unlikely to be the end of the offensive. Already it’s being reported that some of the rebel fighters are moving south from the Aleppo Province toward the city of Hama. Hama would be the second major city in the path of the offensive, and if it fell, that would open up pushes toward Homs and even the capital of Damascus.Though the Syrian Army has vowed to reverse the course after recent losses, they have issued a statement trying to blame Israel for the HTS push. The statement insisted the Army was effectively “fighting the military arm of the Israeli enemy, falsely labeled as the ‘Syrian revolution.’” They added that HTS was backed by “thousands of foreign militants” and had heavy weapons and drones. They reportedly got the drones from Ukraine. The statement concluded with the declaration “you are either with the Syrian Arab Army or with Israel.”The Syrian Army isn’t the only one pointing the finger at Israel. Syrian Foreign Minister Bassam Sabbagh said on Friday that the HTS offensiveserved the interest of Israeli occupation forces. He mentioned an “obvious connection” between recent Israeli strikes on Syria and the rebel push.He’s not the only one making that connection. Former US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford pointed to recent Israeli airstrikes on Syria as well as the air war against Hezbollah, as providing HTS an “opportunity to advance.”Other than Israel, the Kurdish YPG is pointing the finger at Turkey, saying they were behind the HTS offensive. Indeed, Turkish-backed rebels have participated heavily in the offensive on multiple fronts.

Hezbollah Fires Hundreds of Rockets at Tel Aviv, Major Damage Reported - At least 11 people were wounded today as hundreds of rockets were fired by Hezbollah against the major Israeli city of Tel Aviv. A large number of buildings were reported hit in the attack, and there is extensive damage, though exactly how extensive isn’t totally clear at this point.The attacks come after Israel attacked central Beirut with a bunker buster bomb on Saturday morning. At least 29 people were killed in that attack, and Hezbollah’s leader said the strike on central Beirut justified attacks on Tel Aviv.Teams started conducting assessments on the damage in Tel Aviv this evening, though they said full assessments won’t be possible for at least 24 hours. This is one of the largest operations Hezbollah has launched against Israel, and the preliminary assessments is that the damage is in the tens of millions of dollars.Israel’s military initially said 170 rockets were fired at Tel Aviv, and many were intercepted. Since that time, the reports suggest as many as 340 rockets may have been fired, though the injuries are said mostly to be minor, with only one person described as in “moderate to serious condition.”A lot of the images so far show damage to houses and apartments in eastern Tel Aviv, and some cars burnt out in the process. Again, the rockets came close to evening, so it is not possible to say the full extent of the damage yet. These escalating tit for tat attacks comes amid international efforts to broker a ceasefire. Most recently, Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to a US proposal, and it is awaiting an Israeli response. There were reports, however, that Israel objected to any ceasefire in which France was in any way involved, and that may prove a stumbling block.

Israeli Cabinet: Lebanon Ceasefire Announced, To Begin Tuesday at 9:00 PM EST - In a 10-1 vote, the Israeli security cabinet voted today to accept a ceasefire in Lebanon. The security cabinet was originally supposed to vote at 4:00 PM local time, but the meeting was delayed several hours. The exact terms of the deal are not public yet, but the reports are that this will be a 60-day ceasefire, during which Israel is to remove its ground troops from Lebanon. The Israelis have to report “suspicious movements” to a US-led group before taking action. This was a strong sticking point for the Israeli government, who sought a deal that specifically would not require them to cease firing on Lebanese territory.President Biden says that the deal has been agreed to by both Israel and Hezbollah. He also said it will go into effect at 4:00 AM Wednesday Lebanon time, which is 9:00 PM Tuesday evening EST.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement centered heavily on talking up Israeli attacks on Syria, Yemen, and the Gaza Strip. He insisted Hezbollah was set back “decades,” however, citing that they’d killed “all of the leaders” and destroyed most of the group’s rocket arsenals.Netanyahu suggested the ceasefire is only temporary, and that they will attack Lebanon forcefully if Hezbollah takes any actions they object to. He further insisted that the ceasefire was important to “focus on the Iranian threat,” to “rearm the troops,” and to “isolate” Hamas in the Gaza Strip, saying the Lebanon ceasefire will help Israel in their “sacred mission” in Gaza.His comments focused on talk of achieving a great, but non-specific military victory, and totally changing the face of the Middle East. Hezbollah and Lebanon’s government reportedly approved a ceasefire deal last week, though it is not confirmed that it is the same ceasefire deal Israel has agreed upon. At any rate, the reports indicate that a deal of some sort is imminent.

New Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire in Effect, But IDF Warns Evacuation Still in Effect - At 9:00 PM EST/4:00 AM Beirut time, the Israel-Lebanon ceasefireofficially took effect, potentially ending an ongoing Israeli invasion and repeated airstrikes which have killed thousands and displaced well over a million Lebanese civilians.The deal was brokered by the US, and the Israeli security cabinet voted earlier today to support it. The deal proscribes a 60-day ceasefire in which Hezbollah is to move its armed assets north of the Litani River, and the Lebanese government is supposed to deploy its army into the southern area of the country as a buffer between Israel and Hezbollah.Israel, for their part, is intended to withdraw their ground troops from southern Lebanon, and to stop attacking Lebanese territory. If Israel sees “suspicious movements,” US officials say they are to report it to a US-led committee, which would forward the complain to the Lebanese military. It is only after that point that they would be free to respond if Lebanon doesn’t take action.The immediate question must be how the ceasefire will be implemented, and when the Israeli troops will actually leave. Israeli military Avichay Adraee issued a statement after the ceasefire went into effect warning Lebanese civilians against attempting to return to their homes in the evacuation zones, saying the prohibition is still in effect. He said Israel would inform them at a later date when it is safe to return.That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, and the seeming escalation of Israeli attacks in the last few hours before it came into effect added to concerns. In those final hours, Israel carried out multiple attacks on the north Lebanon border crossings into Syria, and imposed new evacuation orders in multiple southern suburbs of Beirut.The attacks on the border crossings are noteworthy, because during the war Israel has repeatedly attacked the main crossings through eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley leading into Qusayr. That makes some sense, as the Bekaa Valley is a known Hezbollah haven. The north crossings, on the other hand, lead into Syria’s coastal Tartus Province. Syrian state media reported a number of people were wounded in these attacks.The attacks on southern Beirut seem to be the last thing Israel did before the ceasefire went into attack. Israel issued evacuation orders on southern and central Beirut just two hours before the 9:00 PM ceasefire, and attacks began less than an hour before that deadline.

Ceasefire Falters as Israel Launches Airstrikes, Artillery Shelling on Southern Lebanon - The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire began Wednesday morning. Less than two days later, it seems to be faltering, with multiple reports of Israeli attacks across southern Lebanon, and claims of violations by both sides.Israel carried out an airstrike against the outskirts of Baysariyeh, which is near Tyre. They confirmed the attack, saying they were targeting a Hezbollah storage facility after seeing “terrorist activity.” They added in their statement that they were “acting to enforce violations of the ceasefire.”Though the claims of violations are coming from both sides, so far it is only Israeli forces whose violations actually involve firing. Lebanesepeople continue to try to return to their homes in the south, despite Israel’s military forbidding them to do so.There are multiple reports of Israel carrying out artillery shelling against towns and villages across southern Lebanon this afternoon. Strikes were reported against the towns of Halta, Taybeh, Khiam, and Rmeish. In Rmeish the attack damaged a supermarket and a home. Three were injured in Taybeh.There were also reported Israeli tank shellings in several places, including the village of Markaba. In that incident, a car was attacked and multiple civilians were wounded. Israeli ground troops also opened fire on vehiclesmultiple times across southern Lebanon, incidents which happened both on Wednesday and Thursday.Israel presented the people they were shooting at as a “number of suspects,” and said that any vehicles in southern Lebanon amount to a ceasefire violation. There is no indication vehicles are actually forbidden by the terms of the ceasefire. Shooting at people, as Israel has been throughout the day, is plainly a violation, however.

Israel Attacks Kill 155 Palestinians in Gaza Over 72 Hours - Israeli attacks across the Gaza Strip killed at least 155 Palestinians over 72 hours, according to death toll updates released by Gaza’s Health Ministry.On Saturday, the Health Ministry said Israeli forces killed 120 Palestinians and wounded over the previous 48-hour period. On Sunday, the ministry said 35 Palestinians were killed and 94 were wounded in the past 24 hours.The ministry’s figures are based on the number of dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues. “There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the ministry wrote on Telegram.Israeli strikes on Sunday included attacks on the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza and in the Jabalia refugee camp in the north, which has been under a total siege since early October as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign. The Israeli military issued a new evacuation order for Shejaiya, an eastern suburb of Gaza City, resulting in more forced displacement of Palestinian civilians.Israeli forces again targeted the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beith Lahia, another city that’s been under total siege. The shelling wounded the hospital director, Dr. Hussam Abu Safia, who has been drawing attention to the siege by releasing video statements and talking to media outlets.According to Al Jazeera, Gaza Civil Defence spokesman Mahmoud Basal said that Abu Safia suffered an injury to his back and left thigh due to metal fragments but was now in a “stable” condition in hospital.From his hospital bed, Abu Safia said the attack won’t stop him and other hospital staff from “completing our humanitarian mission, and we will continue to do this job at any cost.”Gaza’s Health Ministry said the latest violence brought its death toll since October 2023 to 44,211 and the number of wounded to 104,567. A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden in October that the US-backed Israeli onslaught has killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, a total that includes indirect deaths caused by the Israeli siege.Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.

Hamas Says Female Israeli Hostage Was Killed By Israeli Airstrikes -- On Saturday, Hamas’s armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades, said Israeli airstrikes in northern Gaza killed a female Israeli hostage.Al-Qassam Brigades spokesman Abu Obeida said Hamas re-established contact with a unit that was holding the hostage after several weeks and that it was confirmed the Israeli woman was killed in an area of north Gaza where the Israeli military had been operating.Abu Obeida also said that another female captive held in the same area was at risk of dying. He added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders are “fully responsible for the lives of the Israeli captives.”The Israeli military said it couldn’t “confirm or refute” the claim and that it was investigating the situation after Hamas “released footage allegedly showing a hostage who had been killed.”There are believed to be 97 Israeli hostages remaining in Gaza, and the Israeli military has confirmed at least 37 have been killed. Israeli mediareported back in September that Netanyahu told a Knesset committee that only half of the hostages were believed to be alive.Netanyahu has been under pressure from hostage family members to agree to a deal with Hamas, but he worked to sabotage the chances of an agreement during previous negotiations.

Northern Gaza: 130,000 Children Deprived of Food and Medicine Under Israeli Siege - The international charity Save the Children said in a press release on Monday that about 130,000 Palestinian children under the age of 10 have been trapped under an Israeli siege in northern Gaza for 50 days.The organization said children living in north Gaza “have been almost completely cut off from supplies of food, water, and medicine since October 6, 2024, when Israeli forces declared the area to be a closed military zone, with the independent Famine Review Committee (FRC) saying that famine is either imminent or likely already occurring in the area.”In early October, Israel ordered the evacuation of northern Gaza and declared the area a military zone as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign. The operation has been focused on the cities of Beit Lahia, Jabalia, and Beit Hanoun, which have been under a total siege, and barely any aid has reached Gaza City.Save the Children noted that the UN “also warned nearly a month ago that the entire population of North Gaza governorate was at risk of dying, yet attempts by aid groups to access the area have been repeatedly denied by Israeli forces.” The charity said it had been trying to deliver food parcels to northern Gaza for over seven weeks, but the effort failed, and the aid was re-directed to the south.Ruba, a mother of two in northern Gaza, described her situation to Save the Children. “I am trapped with my children under relentless bombs, rockets, and bullets, with nowhere to run. My mother is paralyzed, and I cannot leave her behind. My brother has been killed, my husband was taken, and I don’t know if he’s alive. Our home was destroyed over our heads, and we survived by a miracle,” she said.“With no food, no clean water, and constant fear, both my children have developed rashes, and my daughter is passing blood, but there is no medicine, no help, and absolutely nothing I can do. They cry and ask me why we can’t just leave, why their father isn’t with us, why we can’t go back to a normal life,” Ruba added.On October 13, the Biden administration sent a letter to Israeli officials that said Israel must allow more aid trucks into Gaza within 30 days. During that 30-day period, the aid situation in Gaza only got worse, and Israel came nowhere close to fulfilling the demands in the letter. But when the deadline came, the Biden administration said there would be no consequences for Israel, and US weapons shipments continue to flow, confirming the letter was just a pre-election public relations stunt.

Israeli Troops Helped Settler Leader Enter Gaza To Scout Land for Settlements - Israeli troops helped an Israeli settler leader scout locations for potential Jewish Settlements in the Gaza Strip, Israeli media reported on Friday.According to The Times of Israel, Daniella Weiss, leader of the extremist Nachala movement, was touring the Israeli side of the Gaza border on November 13 with a group of people. The group eventually made its way into northern Gaza somehow, and Weiss contacted Israeli soldiers she knew who sent a jeep to pick them up.The Israeli soldiers took the group of settlers to a site that was a Jewish settlement before the 2005 disengagement in the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of land controlled by the Israeli military that separates northern Gaza from the rest of the Strip. The IDF has bulldozed just about every building in the corridor, which is expanding, making it a potential location for future settlements.The Israeli reports said the soldiers transported Weiss without the knowledge of their superiors. They drove Weiss and her group out of the Strip through an unofficial crossing to avoid being questioned by other security forces.In response to the reports, the Israeli military said, “Weiss’s entrance into the Gaza Strip is unknown and was not approved in the proper avenues. If the incident took place, it’s illegal and against protocol, and will be handled accordingly.”Weiss has previously said she has 740 families ready to move into Gaza. In comments to Israel’s Kan broadcaster, Weiss said she is planning to set up settlements near Israeli military bases in Gaza that she thinks will eventually be recognized by the government, the same strategy Israeli settlers have used in the West Bank.She also signaled that an attempt at establishing settlements might start soon. “We’re no longer getting ready to go in. The moment we can enter — we enter,” Weiss said. She added that if “300 people enter at once,” the military would have difficulty kicking them out. The idea of re-establishing Jewish settlements in Gaza is popular among many Israeli ministers and members of the Knesset, who recently attended a “resettle Gaza” conference that was organized by the Nachala movement and members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party.

Putin Says Russia Can Hit 'Decision Making Centers' in Ukraine With Oreshnik Missile - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday suggested Russia could strike “decision-making centers” in Ukraine with its new Oreshnik missile as a potential response to Ukraine firing US and British missiles into Russian territory.“The Defense Ministry and the General Staff of the Russian Army are currently selecting targets to strike on the territory of Ukraine,” Putin said at a Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) meeting in Kazakhstan, according to TASS.In response to two recent Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory that used the US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 190 miles, the Russian Defense Ministry said it was preparing retaliation.“These targets may include military facilities, defense industry enterprises, or decision-making centers in Kiev,” Putin said.The Oreshnik is a new intermediate-range hypersonic ballistic missile that is capable of being armed with nuclear warheads. Russia fired an Oreshnik missile into Ukraine on November 21 in response to US ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles being fired into Russian territory for the first time.Ukrainian officials said the Oreshnik was likely not carrying any explosives since it didn’t do any significant damage. Putin said on Thursday that Russia has started the serial production of the new missile.When he announced the first Oreshnik launch on November 21, Putin also warned that he believes Russia has the right to strike the military facilities of countries supplying missiles to Ukraine that are hitting Russian territory.