week ending Feb 8

Fed officials see inflation risks from Trump's tariffs (Reuters) - The Trump administration's plans for trade tariffs come with inflation risks, three Federal Reserve officials warned on Monday, with one arguing that uncertainty over the outlook for prices calls for slower interest-rate cuts than otherwise.Trump on Saturday slapped across-the-board tariffs on the three largest U.S. trade partners, though by late Monday the leaders of Mexico and Canada had won a 30-day reprieve after they agreed to stepped-up efforts to stem drug trafficking. Tariffs on China are set to begin on Tuesday, and Trump has signaled he will impose duties on other trading partners as well."The kind of broad-based tariffs that were announced over the weekend, one would expect to have an impact on prices," Boston Fed President Susan Collins said in an interview with CNBC, adding that "with broad-based tariffs, you actually would not only see increases in prices of final goods, but also a number of intermediate goods."Little modern experience on how mega-tariffs impact the economy makes it hard for the Fed to know exactly how big or long-lasting the effects will be, she said, noting that it is possible the Fed could even shrug off a one-time increase in inflation tied to the tariffs.. Speaking later in the day on Marketplace Radio, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that very lack of clarity requires a go-slower approach on interest-rate cuts. "Now we've got to be a little more careful and more prudent of how fast rates could come down because there are risks that inflation is about to start kicking back up again," Goolsbee said. He did not repeat his recent mantra, voiced as recently as last week, that rates will need to come down a fair bit over the next year, given progress on bringing down inflation and the goal of keeping the economy at full employment. Earlier in the day, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned his business contacts were planning to pass through any rising costs from the tariffs. "The ultimate question about whether that is significantly inflationary depends on exactly how it plays out," as there are scenarios where the Fed may be able to shrug off these increases and ones where it might not be able to. "To the extent that were to impact things like inflation expectations then you'd have to," Bostic told reporters after a speech. Analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics said on Monday that the full suite of tariffs on the three nations, if implemented, will cost the typical American household an additional $1,200 a year. "The burden will fall disproportionately on low-income households who spend more of their income on physical goods relative to higher income households," ING chief international economist James Knightley said, noting that tariffs are effectively tax increases on American citizens, as they are paid by the citizens of importing nations. The Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates by a full percentage point last year, held its policy rate steady last week, flagging uncertainty in the economic outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said after the meeting that when it comes to tariffs, "we need to let those policies be articulated before we can even begin to make a plausible assessment of what their implications for the economy will be." Collins, who is a voting member of the Fed's rate-setting committee this year, told CNBC that Fed policy is well-positioned. She noted that "it's really appropriate for policy to be patient, careful, and there's no urgency for making additional adjustments, especially given all of the uncertainty, even though, of course, we're still somewhat restrictive" with the current stance of interest rates. Bostic also signaled he was ready to stay on the sidelines for the time being. There is "a ton of uncertainty in a ton of space," Bostic told a Rotary Club of Atlanta meeting, adding "there are a lot of things I am going to wait and see about ... I'd be very satisfied to wait for a while" with rates at their current levels. Collins left the door open to further rate cuts, saying "I certainly would see additional ... normalization, in terms of what the policy stance is," without providing a time frame. Financial markets are currently betting the Fed will wait until at least June before it cuts rates again.

Collins Says Fed Could 'Look Through' Initial Tariff Price Hit — Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said the US central bank is unlikely to react to the impact of tariffs on prices so long as officials don’t see signals of higher, persistent inflation. “If expectations remain well-anchored, the Federal Reserve would try to look through” the rise in prices driven by tariffs, Collins said Monday in an interview with CNBC. President Donald Trump on Saturday announced tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada and China, top US trading partners, and has threatened to impose levies on other economies, including the European Union. The White House, however, subsequently said a temporary deal had been struck to delay the imposition of tariffs against Mexico. Stock markets around the world fell on the tariff news before paring those losses after the Mexico announcement. Currencies depreciated against the dollar amid concern the tariffs would slow growth and drive up prices, keeping interest rates higher. The Trump announcements add pressure to central bank officials to begin signaling how they might respond to tariffs that could add to inflationary pressures, but might also hurt demand and growth — outcomes that could pull the Fed in opposite directions. Collins said that while broad-based tariffs, like the ones announced over the past few days, would likely impact prices, it’s difficult to be precise in forecasting the size of the effect given that exact policies are still being hammered out. Collins repeated her view that policymakers should continue to be patient, especially amid a labor market that she described as “near full employment.” “There’s no urgency for making additional adjustments,” she said. “The data is going to have to tell us. At some point I certainly would see additional normalization in terms of what the policy stance is,” she said, referring to potential additional rate cuts. Several other policymakers have so far said they have time to wait for the roll out of actual Trump policies — not only on trade but also immigration, regulation and taxation — before deciding how to react. In December, the median estimate of the Fed’s 19 policymakers pointed to two interest-rate reductions this year. Fed officials held interest rates steady at their Jan. 28-29 meeting after cutting them three consecutive times in late 2024.

Fed Balance Sheet QT: -$42 Billion in January, -$2.15 Trillion from Peak, to $6.81 Trillion, Lowest since May 2020. Bye-Bye BTFP -By Wolf Richter Total assets on the Fed’s balance sheet declined by $42 billion in January, to $6.81 trillion, the lowest since May 2020, according to the Fed’s weekly balance sheet today.During May 2020, the third month of its mega-QE, the Fed had added $510 billion in that month alone to its balance sheet. So at the current pace of QT, we’re going to be saying “the lowest since May 2020” for about another 4-5 months. By the time we can say, “the lowest since April 2020,” the balance sheet will have dropped below $6.66 trillion.Since the end of QE in April 2022, the Fed has shed $2.15 trillion, or 24% of its assets. Of the $4.81 trillion heaped on the balance sheet during pandemic QE from March 2020 through April 2022, the Fed has now shed 45%. QT assets by category.

• Treasury securities: -$25.2 billion in January, -$1.51 trillion from peak in June 2022, or -26% since the peak, to $4.27 trillion, the lowest since July 2020.The Fed has now shed 46% of the $3.27 trillion in Treasuries heaped on the balance sheet during pandemic QE.Treasury notes (2- to 10-year) and Treasury bonds (20- & 30-year) “roll off” the balance sheet mid-month and at the end of the month when they mature and the Fed gets paid face value. Since June, the roll-off has been capped at $25 billion per month. About that much has been rolling off, minus the amount of inflation protection the Fed earns on its Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) that is added to the principal of the TIPS.
• Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS): -$15.7 billion in January, -$522 billion from the peak, to $2.23 trillion, the lowest since May 2021.The Fed has shed 19.1% of its MBS since the peak in April 2022. In terms of the MBS that the Fed had added during Pandemic-QE, it has shed 38%.MBS come off the balance sheet primarily via pass-through principal payments that holders receive when mortgages are paid off (mortgaged homes are sold, mortgages are refinanced) and when mortgage payments are made. But sales of existing homes in 2024 have plunged to the lowest since 1995 and mortgage refinancing has collapsed, and therefore far fewer mortgages got paid off, and passthrough principal payments to MBS holders, such as the Fed, have become a trickle. As a result, MBS have come off the Fed’s balance sheet at a pace that has been mostly in the range of $15-17 billion a month.The Fed only holds “agency” MBS that are guaranteed by the government and is therefore not exposed to losses if borrowers default on mortgages; the taxpayer would pick up those losses, not the Fed.

• Bank liquidity facilities.The Fed has five bank liquidity facilities. Four have either no balance at all or a balance that is essentially zero on the Fed scale, though they were heavily used after the SVB collapse. The latest addition to that essentially-zero list is the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP):

  • Central Bank Liquidity Swaps ($76 million)
  • Repos ($0)
  • Loans to the FDIC ($0).
  • BTFP ($197 million).
• Bye-Bye BTFP: -$4.2 billion in January, to $197 million, down from $168 billion. The BTFP was conceived in March 2023 after SVB had failed. But it had a fatal flaw: Its rate was based on a market rate. When Rate-Cut Mania kicked off in November 2023, market rates plunged even as the Fed’s policy rates were unchanged, including the 5.4% the Fed paid banks on reserves. Some banks then used the BTFP for arbitrage profits, borrowing at the BTFP at a lower market rate and leaving the cash in their reserve account at the Fed to earn 5.4%. This arbitrage caused the BTFP balances to spike to $168 billion. The Fed, infuriated, shut down the arbitrage in January 2024 by changing the rate and decided to let the BTFP expire on March 11, 2024, and no new loans could be taken out since then. Nearly all remaining loans, which had a maximum term of one year, have now been paid off.

Fed's balance sheet runoff nears pivotal moment - A key line item on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has fallen to its lowest level in nearly four years, raising questions about the central bank's runoff plans going forward. As the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement program nears zero, pressure could mount on the central bank to slow or stop its asset runoff as it fights inflation.

The Fed’s QT Could Go on for a Lot Longer: The Tools Are in Place, incl. the Revived Standing Repo Facility By Wolf Richter -Balances at the Fed’s facility for Overnight Reverse Repurchase agreements (ON RRPs) have dropped below $80 billion for the second day in a row today, the lowest since April 2021, down from $2.4 trillion at the peak in December 2022, and well on their way to near-zero, where they were in normal times, and where the Fed wants them to be again as part of its QT, which by now has removed $2.15 trillion from the Fed’s balance sheet.RRPs represent excess liquidity in the money markets that they don’t know what else to do with. This liquidity is outside the banking system. And it dropped by more ($2.3 trillion) than the liquidity removed via QT ($2.1 trillion).To help ON RRPs get to near-zero, the Fed lowered its ON RRP offering rate – one of its five policy rates – at the December meeting by 5 basis points, in addition to the 25-basis-point cut on all its five policy rates. At 4.25%, the offering rate is now at the bottom of the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate, as it had been before June 2021.By contrast, reserve balances have not come down at all since QT started in July 2022. They’re now at $3.18 trillion, as of today’s balance sheet, about where they’d been in July 2022 when QT started, despite some ups and downs in between.Yet bringing down reserve balances from the current “abundant” levels to merely “ample” (sufficient, adequate) levels is the primary purpose of QT. Reserves represent excess liquidity in the banking system that banks have deposited at the Fed.All of the QT so far has come out of ON RRPs. But it’s reserve balances that indicate how much longer QT can continue – not ON RRPs. And as far as reserves are concerned, the impact of QT hasn’t even started yet:The spike and its unwind in reserves started in January 2021, peaked in December 2021 at $4.25 trillion, and then liquidity shifted from banks to money markets, which caused reserves to plunge at the time and ON RRPs to balloon. But when QT started in July 2022, reserves were back at about $3.2 trillion and sort of stabilized at that level, while ON RRPs were being drawn down by QT.

No clear signal for Fed as unemployment rate eases to 4% - Employers added fewer workers than expected in January, but the unemployment rate ticked down thanks to upward revisions of previous months' estimates, according to t latest government employment survey. Employers added fewer workers than anticipated last month, but upward revisions to previous estimates drove down the jobless rate. The report gives no clear directive to the Federal Reserve, which put rate cuts on hold last month.

Underlying Job Market Dynamics Retighten as Fed Moves any Rate Cuts into Distance amid Accelerating Inflation by Wolf Richter The reason we’re looking at the underlying dynamics of the labor market is to gauge the pressure within the Fed to cut interest rates to prevent the labor market from weakening. And in these underlying dynamics, there are no reasons for the Fed to cut interest rates further. The labor market is not weakening, it has been tightening just a little since September. Over the same period, inflation measures have accelerated some. And that combination has caused the Fed to move any rate cuts into the distance, and even Trump suddenly thought that this pivot to wait-and-see “was the right thing to do.”Job openings, after two months of strong increases, gave up some of those increases in December and fell to 7.60 million, seasonally adjusted, in very squiggly month-to-month data. The low point was in September at 7.37 million openings (blue in the chart below).The three-month average, which irons out those month-to-month squiggles and shows the trends of the underlying dynamics of the labor market, ticked up for the third month in a row from the low point in September, and even the September low point was still above the prior historic high point in late 2018 (red).This date from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today is based on surveys of about 21,000 work locations, and not on online job listings.Job openings in relationship to nonfarm payrolls ticked up again and is still at levels that had never been seen before the pandemic. In December, job openings amounted to 4.9% of nonfarm payrolls, the third month in a row of increases. This shows that the labor market is still historically tight, though not nearly as tight as it had been during the labor shortages of the pandemic:The figure Powell cites a lot: The number of job openings per unemployed person ticked down to 1.10 job openings for each person who was unemployed and looking for a job during the reference period (7.60 million job openings for 6.89 million unemployed people looking for work).The ratio has remained in that range for the past six months, with a low point in September. It was in September that the Fed got spooked about further deterioration of the labor market. But that didn’t happen.The ratio is relatively high – meaning a relatively tight labor market – compared to the prepandemic data going back to 2001, where only 2018 and 2019 had a higher ratio.

Trump Agrees with Fed’s Pivot to Wait-and-See after the Fed Bows to Trump on Everything Else to Keep Monetary Policy Independent By Wolf Richter Trump understands – since he ran on that platform and won in part based on it – that Americans hate, hate, hate inflation, that they’re tired of price increases and tired of high prices, and that this is a serious issue, not something to be brushed off by a President, and that they’re blaming Presidents for it, such as Carter and Biden. And he understands that there is one entity whose explicit job it is to fix this: The Fed. And if the Fed doesn’t fix it, that’s where the blame goes.In an exchange with reporters on Sunday outside at night, with airstairs to a plane in the background, Trump was asked about the Fed’s decision to hold rates, instead of cutting them. He said, “I’m not surprised. I think holding the rates at this point was the right thing to do.” The Fed has moved rate cuts, if any, into the distance because inflation has been accelerating ever so gently over the past few months, and hasn’t made any progress at all since May, with core services inflation, where most of the inflation has been, not having made any progress in 12 months, stuck just under 4%. Powell was nominated by Trump to head the Fed. But in 2018, the Fed’s four little rate hikes that year to ultimately 2.25%-2.5%, plus some gentle QT, attracted Trump’s ire. At the time, core PCE inflation was running at or below the Fed’s 2% target. The hikes were supposed to normalize policy rates and take the wind out of inflationary pressures, while QT was supposed to “normalize” of sorts the balance sheet. Trump keelhauled Powell publicly on a daily basis to push the Fed to end the rate hikes, which the Fed ended them in December 2018 with a final hike, and to end QT, which the Fed let peter out in mid-2019.This time around, with inflation a real threat, the Fed has already bowed to the Trump administration’s policy priorities that don’t affect monetary policies, in an effort to avoid conflict with the White House and to maintain its monetary policy independence:

• The Fed will now “review” the bank stress tests. On December 23, the Fed as banking regulator announced that, “in view of the evolving legal landscape,” it would “soon seek public comment on significant changes to improve the transparency of its bank stress tests and to reduce the volatility of resulting capital buffer requirements.” This was a big complaint from banks.
• Fed Vice Chair of banking regulations steps down. On January 6, the Fed announced Fed governor Michael Barr – appointed by Biden as Federal Reserve Board Vice Chair for Supervision, and was targeted by the incoming Trump administration – would step down from that role, making room for Trump to appoint one of the Republicans on the Board of Governors to that top slot of bank regulations.
• Withdraws from NGFS. On January 17, the Fed announcedthat it has withdrawn from the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System that it had joined in December 2020 to please the incoming Biden administration. It said that “the work of the NGFS has increasingly broadened in scope, covering a wider range of issues that are outside of the Board’s statutory mandate.”
• Will review bank regulations. On January 31, the Fed (jointly with other bank regulators) announced that it would hold a virtual public meeting in March “as part of their review of [bank] regulations, as required by law,” citing the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act. The law “requires the agencies, with input from the public, to review their regulations at least once every 10 years to identify any outdated or otherwise unnecessary regulatory requirements applicable to their supervised institutions.” It said that this was “an opportunity for interested stakeholders to present their views on the six categories of [bank] regulations listed in the first two Federal Register notices: applications and reporting; powers and activities; international operations; consumer protection; directors, officers and employees; and money laundering.” So now, it’s suddenly time to review these banking regulations.
• Scrubs DEI pages and policies from its website. The Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a government agency, has removed its DEI pages and references to any DEI policies from its website. At the FOMC press conference on January 29, a reporter challenged Powell about Trump’s Executive Orders to scrub DEI out of the federal government.

Powell said, “We are reviewing the orders and associated details as they are made available. As has been our practice over many administrations, we are working to align our policies with the executive orders as appropriate and consistent with applicable law. I want to add that I am not going to have anything more specific for you today on this whole set of issues.”But the reporter didn’t let up: “I am wondering how you are getting that to be consistent with the Dodd-Frank law’s stipulations about maintaining an Office of Minority and Women Inclusion?” Whereupon Powell said acidly, “I did mention consistent with applicable law, right?”So the Fed is bowing to the Trump administration on policy issues from bank regulations to DEI, in an effort to keep its monetary policy independent.And Trump seems to understand the issue of inflation as a real threat; he ran on it, and won on it (among other factors), and now seems poised to let the Fed do its work on inflation, that’s what it looks like. We will see how long Trump’s side of this mutual understanding will last.

Former Federal Reserve advisor indicted for economic espionage -- A former senior advisor at the Federal Reserve Board was arrested and charged with economic espionage for conspiring to steal trade secrets and sell them to China for $450,000.

Hakeem Jeffries vows to use government shutdown fight to combat Trump orders — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Monday that Democrats will use the coming battle over government funding as a vehicle to block President Trump’s early efforts to gut federal programs — a warning that raises the chances of a shutdown in the middle of next month. In a letter to House Democrats, Jeffries hammered the administration for issuing an order — since rescinded — to freeze federal aid that Congress had previously allocated. Jeffries suggested Democrats will oppose any federal spending bill that doesn’t explicitly prevent Trump from freezing, slashing or otherwise altering those programs, including Medicaid, which saw its services disrupted amid the chaos over the freeze.The Democratic leader said he’s already delivered the message to House GOP leaders that, absent those assurances, Republicans will be on their own to prevent a shutdown.“I have made clear to House Republican leadership that any effort to steal taxpayer money from the American people, end Medicaid as we know it or defund programs important to everyday Americans, as contemplated by the illegal White House Office of Management and Budget order, must be choked off in the upcoming government funding bill, if not sooner,” Jeffries wrote. Jeffries and the Democrats are in the minority, but they have plenty of leverage to dictate some terms of the coming government funding fight. That’s because Senate Democrats still have the power of the filibuster, which will require bipartisan support to overcome, while the GOP’s majority in the House is so slim that even partisan messaging bills will frequently be a challenge to pass. Indeed, Jeffries’s warning arrives as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and other GOP leaders are already struggling to unite the feuding factions of their restive conference behind not only a government spending bill, but also a much larger package of tax cuts, immigration reforms and energy policies that Trump had promised on the campaign trail. Somewhere in that mix, they also need to raise the debt ceiling — an unpopular idea among many House conservatives. Without congressional action, large parts of the government will shut down on March 14. Democratic leaders have come under fire from some Trump critics outside the Beltway who contend the party hasn’t moved swiftly or aggressively enough to push back against the early actions of the second Trump administration, which is moving at a sprinter’s pace to overhaul the face and operations of the federal workforce. Jeffries’s letter Monday seeks to counter those criticisms, laying out a 10-part battle plan for combating the president’s unprecedented unilateral actions. Jeffries said Democrats will soon introduce legislation to block “unlawful access” to information systems operated by federal agencies like the Treasury Department — a response to a scandal that erupted over the weekend when the government efficiency operations under Elon Musk were given access to the Treasury Department’s sensitive payment systems. Jeffries is also vowing to step up the Democrats’ messaging activities — with a focus on Trump’s so-far unmet promise to slash consumer costs — and litigation efforts in the face of executive orders the party deems to be illegal. That list includes Trump’s efforts to end birthright citizenship, fire a number of inspectors general and cut the federal workforce across the various agencies.

Senate preparing to move first on budget package amid House stalemate -- Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) will brief Republican senators Wednesday about moving first on a budget resolution to lay the groundwork for a package focused on border security, energy and defense that could pass the Senate with a simple majority while House Republicans remain deadlocked on how to move forward. Graham and other Republican senators are eager to get started on phase one of Trump’s agenda by moving a budget reconciliation package that would include about $100 billion in funding to secure the U.S.-Mexico border, reforms to expand oil and gas drilling and a substantial plus-up in defense spending. Their plan would move legislation to extend the expiring 2017 tax cuts in a second budget reconciliation package later this year. Senate Republican Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) said that House Republicans “right now” are “not able to move at the level we’d like them to move.” “We do have a bill ready to go here and Sen. Graham is going to be briefing the conference on that tomorrow at lunch,” Barrasso. House Republicans this week were forced to delay an initial vote on their version of the legislation amid jockeying among Republicans over how deep the spending cuts it should include. Barrasso said Senate Republicans will head to Florida this weekend and will meet with President Trump Friday night to gauge his interest in the Senate moving before the House on a budget reconciliation package to enact at least half of his legislative agenda. He said GOP senators will “see if he’d like us to move forward” on a package focused on border security, energy and defense. The Wyoming senator said Graham will update GOP colleagues “on where he is in terms of putting together the budget for the reconciliation.” “What he’s been working on, of course, is … the immediacy of border security, energy security, defense, national security. Those parts of things,” he said. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), however, told reporters Tuesday afternoon that the plan is still for the House, not the Senate, to move forward on a budget package that would encompass border security, energy, defense and tax legislation. “The Senate will not take the lead. We’ll take the lead. We’re right on schedule,” he said. Johnson noted that he will meet with Republican members of the House Budget Committee Tuesday evening to discuss a path forward. “It’s not yet determined whether we’ll be marking up this week or not,” he said. “We’re having an important meeting tonight with key figures on the committee and others to sort through it. But this is the deliberative process.” “We’re well within the margins of time that we have to work on and I’m very optimistic about it. We’ve made a lot of progress,” he said. A source familiar with the House schedule told The Hill Tuesday that the budget resolution would be delayed in the House. “There will not be a budget resolution markup this week,” the source said. “Leadership provided an ambitious timeline, and the House is doing the best it can to meet that.”

Republicans consider accounting method to sidestep debt increase to extend Trump tax cuts Caught between the debt and their tax base, Republicans are considering some novel ways to account for the cost of their legislative agenda as disagreements over budget cuts look set to hamstring early moves on their tax bill. Known as working from the “current policy baseline,” the nonstandard accounting method would let Republicans sweep nearly $5 trillion of debt under the rug. Using that baseline would keep the cost of extending expiring provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act out of the bill’s budgetary score, but include the potential benefits of renewing those provisions. Doing so would likely produce a much smaller number by which the tax legislation would add to the deficit. “That’s a $5 trillion question,” PwC tax expert and longtime Capitol Hill staffer Rohit Kumar told reporters in January, noting the policy baseline method could be used in either a one-bill or two-bill scenario for the Republican agenda. Jane Gravelle, senior specialist in economic policy at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service (CRS), said using current policy baseline accounting would be a significant move. “It’s obviously a big deal,” Gravelle told The Hill. “Everything having to do with the debt is a big deal, because we’ve got a big problem with the debt.” Despite President Trump’s preference for “one big, beautiful bill” with which to advance his agenda, Republicans may opt for two, after the House GOP failed to reach agreement on a top-line budget number at their retreat in Florida last month. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has said he wants to vote on a number by the end of February. If the CBO were asked by Congress to score the costs of the tax legislation relative to a current policy baseline, the agency would do it, while also providing a score based on the primary accounting method, known as the “current law baseline.” Current law baseline considers the 2017 Trump tax cuts as they are written into law, accounting for the expiration of provisions such as cuts to personal income tax rates. The 2017 cuts were made temporary in the first place in order to satisfy the requirements of the budget reconciliation process, a legal workaround that sidesteps the need for 60 votes in the Senate and that Republicans are aiming to use once again. Ultimately, it’s a difference of assumption — but one with real consequences for the deficit, which ballooned to new highs after the pandemic and is a major concern for many Republicans. Total U.S. debt stock stands now at about $36 trillion, or 120 percent of annual gross domestic product.

Negotiations stall ahead of shutdown deadline as Democrats slam Trump for subverting spending laws — Government funding negotiations have stalled ahead of a key March 14 deadline to prevent a shutdown, three sources with knowledge of the talks said, as President Donald Trump’s attempts to unilaterally halt funding and overhaul agencies have damaged an already fraught push for a bipartisan deal. Congressional leaders in both parties haven’t yet agreed on a top-line dollar amount to spend in the new fiscal year, which is the first step to fleshing out any deal, the three sources said. Two of them added that Trump’s recent actions are contributing to the lack of progress, but that they aren’t the only factor. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., the vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, told NBC News in a statement that it is “extremely difficult to reach an agreement” on how to keep the government functioning — “when the President is illegally blocking vast chunks of approved funding, when he is trying to unilaterally shutter critical agencies, and when an unelected billionaire is empowered to force his way into our government’s central, highly-sensitive payments system.” “Democrats and Republicans alike must be able to trust that when a deal gets signed into law, it will be followed,” said Murray, who said earlier this week that “the level of trust is at the lowest I have ever seen it here in Congress — in our ability to work together.” Democrats are discussing how to use the deadline to push back on Trump’s attempted move to freeze substantial federal aid and his administration’s effort to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development without congressional approval. Although Republicans control both chambers of Congress, Democrats have two significant points of leverage. One is the paper-thin House majority: GOP leaders routinely face many defections from conservatives on funding the government, forcing them to lean on Democrats. The second — and larger — one is the Senate’s 60-vote threshold, which applies to government funding legislation, including short-term measures. “We’re going to look at ways to try to confront some of these illegal actions he’s taken,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. “We will use the appropriations process to try to correct some of these outrages.” “This is obviously a big problem if you can’t trust the president to follow the law,” he said. So far, most Republicans have cheered on Trump or downplayed his actions as he circumvents congressional spending powers. They are wary of defying Trump, who wields political power over the GOP base voters who will make or break their electoral futures. All of that means the odds of a shutdown next month are rising, even as Murray and Democrats say that’s not what they want. Asked Tuesday whether Trump’s actions have marred the talks, Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, R-Maine, said, “I have always worked in good faith with my fellow members of the Appropriations Committee, and I expect that to occur this time as well. No one wants a government shutdown.” A top-line agreement is just the beginning. After that, lawmakers must agree on the details of where the funding goes, and cut a deal on what other policy changes, if anything, to attach to the bill. It’s also unclear if it’ll be one bill or get broken up into several pieces. Last week, Collins wouldn’t give a deadline for when an overall spending level needs to be agreed to in order to allow enough time to prevent a shutdown, saying negotiators are “not that close.” The White House did not respond to a request for comment. Further complicating prospects for a bipartisan deal, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said Monday on Fox News that Republicans “applaud” Trump’s various executive actions and want to “really reinforce what he’s doing, the agenda through legislation.” In a letter to colleagues this week, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said he has “made clear to House Republican leadership that any effort to steal taxpayer money from the American people, end Medicaid as we know it or defund programs important to everyday Americans, as contemplated by the illegal White House Office of Management and Budget order, must be choked off in the upcoming government funding bill, if not sooner.” Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said the onus is on Republicans “to find a way to work with Democrats to enact funding laws” while “proving that the laws we are writing will be followed.” “We are actively negotiating final 2025 funding bills and will need those assurances,” she said, warning that Republicans “are not going to be able to pass funding bills without Democratic support with a two-seat majority.”

Shutdown fears grow as battles over Trump moves multiply --- The odds of a government shutdown are surging as President Trump battles Democrats over efforts to freeze funding and Republicans brawl internally over the size and scope of potential cuts. With a mid-March deadline fast approaching, negotiators on Capitol Hill have yet to agree on the top-line numbers to guide the extension of federal funding through September, let alone the legislative details that can win enough bipartisan support to prevent a shutdown. And Democrats are pointing directly to Trump’s controversial executive actions — including an early attempt to freeze money previously allocated by Congress — as a major factor behind the impasse. Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), the top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, told reporters this week that “the level of trust is at the lowest I have ever seen it here in Congress, in our ability to work together, find a compromise and get it passed.” The list of obstacles impeding passage of a bipartisan deal to avert a shutdown is a long one — and none of those obstacles will be easy to overcome. The bills crafted in the Senate are largely bipartisan — a stark contrast to the funding plans approved so far in the GOP-led House, where Republicans want lower funding levels with a host of partisan riders that Democrats have decried as “poison pills.” Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), meanwhile, can afford virtually no defections in his fractious conference on any party-line measure — an issue exemplified this week when Republicans were forced to punt a preliminary vote on an unrelated budget measure that would have paved the way to pass Trump’s top priorities with just GOP support. And he will face heavy pressure to avoid a bipartisan compromise, which is exactly the issue that led to the toppling of his predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), in the fall of 2023. And Democrats say they have little appetite to help Republicans, given Trump’s latest moves, and intend to use their leverage in the spending fight. Trump, despite winning less than 50 percent of the popular vote, is claiming a mandate to enact his agenda without compromise — a position that belies the fact that Democratic buy-in will be needed to get any spending bill through Congress and to his desk. The president is also claiming the authority to impound funding already approved by Congress, which has infuriated Democrats — who say it’s patently illegal — and undermined trust between the parties heading into the meat of the negotiations. Additionally, Trump has empowered Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest person, to slash government spending, and the March fight over appropriations will be the first real opportunity for Republicans to demonstrate that they’re on board. Conservatives on Capitol Hill, especially those in the House, are already there, threatening to oppose any spending bill that doesn’t feature drastic cuts and setting up a clash with Democrats who say those same cuts are nonstarters. The combination has heightened the threat of a shutdown after March 14, when funding is scheduled to expire. The chaotic political environment lends plenty of leverage to Democrats in the spending fight, and they’re already sending clear signals that they intend to use it. “Republicans have a narrow majority in the House, and we are ready, willing, and able to work with them, our Republican colleagues, to improve the quality of life for everyday Americans,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said Monday. “[But] we will not participate in a Republican rip-off that steals taxpayer money from the American people.” Congressional negotiators on both sides of the aisle had previously been optimistic of striking a bipartisan, bicameral top-line deal in January in a bid to craft and pass all 12 government funding bills by March. But those hopes have dimmed, particularly among those on the Democratic side, amid fallout over Trump’s orders. Asked Tuesday if he was confident in Congress’s ability to meet the mid-March deadline, Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), the top Democrat on the subcommittee that crafts annual funding for the Department of Homeland Security, simply said “nope.” “They’re destroying the federal government as we speak. They’re literally lighting agencies on fire one by one,” Murphy said. “They’re ignoring congressional requirements to spend money. We’re in the middle of a crisis.” Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), another senior appropriator, also voiced concerns that Trump’s recent orders have increased the risk of a shutdown next month. “I think they’ve made it clear they don’t care about the operations, what government does and how it helps people,” she said. Republicans have continued to brush off the alarms from Democrats. But there is acknowledgement that Congress is facing a shrinking window to strike a funding deal with little progress to show in the weeks since passing its last stopgap in December to buy time for spending talks. “It’s hard to know what’s going on, but it’s not like we haven’t had trouble with top lines in the last Congress and now this Congress,” said Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.), a spending cardinal. “But we do need to decide very quickly.”

Why Washington is getting nervous about a shutdown - The president in charge during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has returned to the White House, current government funding expires in less than six weeks — and on Capitol Hill, people are nervous. It’s not just President Donald Trump’s history of leading the country through a 35-day funding lapse that has lawmakers worried about his appetite for another one in March. It’s also that Trump’s actions in his first two weeks back in office are stifling bipartisan negotiations toward a funding deal as the president — and his “government efficiency” chief, Elon Musk — work to bulldoze the federal bureaucracy while freezing billions of dollars Congress already enacted and firing federal workers. “I don’t think anybody thinks a shutdown is a good thing. But the politics are such that we could certainly stumble into one without meaning to,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican, said in a brief interview Tuesday. The new president’s truculent first days in office have created an especially unfavorable climate on Capitol Hill for landing any cross-party accord, whether that’s a “grand funding deal” ahead of the government shutdown deadline or an agreement to lift the debt limit to prevent the U.S. from defaulting on more than $36 trillion in loans in the coming months. While the Democratic leader in the House demands that Trump’s funding freeze be “choked off” as part of any funding agreement, Republican lawmakers say it will be Democrats who take the fall for causing a funding lapse if they hold that line. And so the shutdown blame game begins again. “The president issued an executive order to curb spending. I highly doubt Republicans are going to rescind that. I don’t see that happening,” Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.), the chair of the House Republican Conference, said late Tuesday. “That’s on Dems if they want to shut it down.” Behind closed doors, Cole and Congress’ other three top appropriations are trying to strike a bipartisan deal on the first step toward funding the government by the March 14 deadline: One overall spending total for the military and another for non-defense programs. From there, it usually takes at least a month to negotiate and finalize the dozen individual funding bills. The clock is ticking fast. The exasperated Democrats sitting opposite Cole at the negotiating table say any good faith agreement with their GOP counterparts is meaningless if Trump disregards the will of Congress by using “impoundment” to withhold funding they pass into law. “If the White House is not going to honor an agreement and use impoundment, then it is hard to come to agreement,” Washington Sen. Patty Murray, the Senate’s top Democratic appropriator, said in a brief interview Tuesday. Democrats want Trump to unfreeze foreign aid and billions of dollars already promised to federal contractors and local governments, while also stopping Musk from dismantling agencies like the U.S. Agency for International Development. They also want Trump to promise he will sign into law — and then actually follow — whatever bipartisan funding deal they might strike in the coming weeks, especially after he and Musk goaded GOP leaders into disavowing the December spending package all parties had previously approved. “We need assurances. That’s all I’m going to say,” Murray said.Congress’ four funding leaders — Murray and Cole, along with Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins and the House’s top Democratic appropriator, Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut — all praised each other’s efforts. “Everybody in the room of goodwill, wanted to move forward” is how DeLauro described the ongoing funding negotiations between the so-called “four corners.” But DeLauro is also wary. “Don’t tell me that all bets are off. That we’re going to come to a deal … and then all of a sudden Elon Musk or some other self-subscribed unchecked billionaire decides it’s not to his liking. Hell no.”

GOP senators to press Trump to take their side against House Republicans - Republican senators say they want to convince President Trump to support their plan to take the lead on a budget reconciliation package when they meet with him at Mar-a-Lago on Friday. Republican senators say getting Trump to pick a side in the standoff between Senate and House Republicans over which chamber should move first on the president’s legislative agenda is one of several topics they hope to discuss at a two-hour dinner reception scheduled for Friday evening. “In the end it will take presidential leadership. It will take him twisting arms. He might have to twist them hard,” said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), referring to what many GOP senators see as Trump’s need to crack down on House Republicans who are holding up the process. A Republican senator who will be at the meeting with Trump on Friday said it would be “helpful” if Trump urges House Republicans to back a Senate Republican plan to break up his legislative agenda into two packages and move quickly on a bill focused on border security, energy reform and defense. “There’s still differing opinions and no single clear option as to one bill, two bills, three bills for reconciliation. We need to talk about spending levels generally, plan for debt ceiling,” the lawmaker said. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) plans to mark up a budget resolution next week that would allow the Senate to move forward on a reconciliation package that would include hundreds of billions of dollars in spending for border security and defense.

Federal judge extends pause on Trump's federal funding freeze — — A federal judge in Washington, D.C., extended a block on President Trump’s widespread federal funding pause amid concerns the administration was still moving ahead despite two previous court orders ordering it to preserve the status quo. U.S. District Judge Loren AliKhan cited affidavits from some nonprofits warning they could soon shut down because they are still experiencing issues accessing funds. “The declarations and evidence presented by Plaintiffs paint a stark picture of nationwide panic in the wake of the funding freeze. Organizations with every conceivable mission — healthcare, scientific research, emergency shelters, and more — were shut out of funding portals or denied critical resources beginning on January 28,” AliKhan wrote in her 30-page ruling. The Justice Department told AliKhan she had no authority to intervene after the Trump White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) rescinded last week’s memo that sparked widespread confusion by ordering agencies to pause federal grants and loans. AliKhan rejected the notion the case was moot. She also declined to impose various limitations on the scope of the injunction, which was requested by a group of nonprofits and health organizations that are suing. “Each day that the pause continues to ripple across the country is an additional day that Americans are being denied access to programs that heal them, house them, and feed them. Because the funding freeze threatens the lifeline that keeps countless organizations operational, Plaintiffs have met their burden of showing irreparable harm,” wrote AliKhan, an appointee of former President Biden. Her order blocks federal agencies “from implementing, giving effect to, or reinstating under a different name the directives” of the OMB memo and mandates agencies “release any disbursements” they previously froze. “That is not appropriate relief, and underscores how the entire claim is noncognizable and, if allowed to proceed, would constitute an extraordinary intrusion into the Executive Branch,” the Justice Department wrote in court filings Monday. AliKhan’s injunction is similar to one granted Friday by a federal judge in Rhode Island in a legal challenge to the OMB memo brought by 22 Democratic state attorneys general. Judges in both cases highlighted White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s statement that the administration was only rescinding the OMB memo, not the “federal funding freeze” itself. AliKhan, in particular, condemned Leavitt’s suggestion that the rescission was to “end any confusion” by the judge’s initial ruling last week preserving federal grants until she could hold a hearing. “The court can think of few things more disingenuous,” AliKhan wrote. “Preventing a defendant from evading judicial review under such false pretenses is precisely why the voluntary cessation doctrine exists. The rescission, if it can be called that, appears to be nothing more than a thinly veiled attempt to prevent this court from granting relief.”

Elon Musk Wants to Get Operational Control of the Treasury’s Payment System. This Could Not Possibly Be More Dangerous -Nathan Tankus -In my last piece I described the Trump administration’s spending freeze, even with the OMB memo rescinded, as a “five alarm fire” and as a burgeoning “constitutional crisis.” I claimed that it was the “most dramatic event in the constitutional law of fiscal policy in the United States ever.” I said that “Ordinary Americans are now in danger of learning a lot more about the ‘legal plumbing’ of fiscal policy; far more than they could ever imagine wanting to know. Things aren’t going well.” I’m sure to some readers, these statements came off as “alarmist.” As it turns out, I understated the extremity and danger of the situation we’re in even as a Judge on Friday issued a more comprehensive injunction against the executive orders which were designed to impound funds, OMB guidance or not, across the federal government. I also understated all the things ordinary Americans are in “danger” of learning about. It's now not just the “legal plumbing,” it's the payments plumbing too. This is now also the closest thing we’ve ever had to a payment system constitutional crisis.So what happened? According to reporting on Friday — first at the Washington Post and then in more detail from CNN as well as the New York Times — the Fiscal Assistant Secretary of the United States Treasury David Lebryk has been put on paid administrative leave and plans to resign after refusing to give Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) access to the operational details of the Treasury’s payment system and the data it processes. In particular, Musk’s DOGE team has been asking for what the New York Times reporting refers to as “source code information” since December and has been rebuffed. The CNN reporting specifically states that they were inquiring about the technical ability to stop payments.David Lebryk has been an employee at the United States Treasury since 1989 and has been Fiscal Assistant Treasury Secretary since 2014, which is the highest position a civil service employee can reach; everyone above him is a political appointee. Donald Trump named Lebryk acting Treasury Secretary while his nominee Scott Bessent went through the nominations process; as of this writing Lebryk is still listed on the Treasury’s website as the acting Deputy Secretary of the Treasury. His understanding of the operational systems that undergird the functioning of the United States Treasury is far and away unparalleled. In particular, he is widely credited with being the person who is overwhelmingly responsible for the undisrupted continuity of cash inflows and outflows at the Treasury during the recurrent debt ceiling crises of the past 15 years while concurrently ensuring the debt ceiling limit was not breached.Lebryk being put on paid administrative leave reportedly happened after he requested and got a meeting with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, fresh from his confirmation by the Senate. Bessent’s full willingness to cooperate with DOGE’s desire to access the operational aspects of the Treasury’s payment system, even to the point of overruling Lebryk, is an extremely shocking development. It implies a level of willingness to serve Trump’s interests that has not previously been understood by Congress, Wall Street, or corporate America at-large. However, this is consistent with internal conversations among those in the president’s orbit. I can exclusively report here for the first time that Scott Bessent was advised that what Donald Trump wanted in a Treasury Secretary was a person who would have the credibility Steve Mnuchin had with Wall Street but who would be loyal to Trump above all other considerations, according to two sources familiar with the situation. This included, but was not limited to, unconditionally agreeing to work with whomever Trump sent over to the Treasury Department and helping go after Donald Trump’s enemies. In the context of Bessent’s actions this week, and what Elon Musk and DOGE want from the Bureau of the Fiscal Service, these commitments take on a dark new meaning. The danger is also not in the near future, it is here. Follow up reporting from the New York Times Saturday evening in an article straightforwardly informed readers in its headline that “Elon Musk’s Team Now Has Full Access to Treasury’s Payments System.” They could not initially confirm that any payments had yet been stopped but an updated version had further information that seemed intended by anonymous government officials to reassure people. Most notably, the New York Times took the word “full” out of the headline:While their access was approved, the Musk representatives have yet to gain operational capabilities and no government payments have been blocked, the people said.Mr. Musk’s initiative is intended to be part of a broader review of the payments system to allow improper payments to be scrutinized and is not an effort to arbitrarily block individual payments, the people familiar with the matter said. Career Treasury Department attorneys signed off on granting the access, they added, and any changes to the system would go through a review process and testing.For reasons I will go into below, I do believe that it is the case that Musk and his team are not yet near having “operational capabilities.” The key word is “yet.”

Trump administration gives Musk allies access to Treasury payment system – The Trump administration has approved plans to grant Treasury officials affiliated with Elon Musk’s team access to the federal system that handles trillions of dollars in payments, according to two people familiar with the situation.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signed off on a plan to give access to the payment system to a team led by Tom Krause, the CEO of Cloud Software Group, who is now working for the Treasury Department and serves as a liaison to Musk’s DOGE group that operates out of the United States Digital Service. One person familiar with the effort said Krause’s role will be subject to safeguards that would not allow any ability to make changes to the system and that no one outside Treasury would have access.“The secretary’s approval was contingent on it being essentially a read-only operation,” the person said.There has been an internal struggle within Treasury over how much access Musk and his allies should have to the sensitive system, which is critical to payments disbursed by the federal government to tens of millions of Americans each year. The Trump administration has already sought to freeze funds to previously approved programs it disfavors, alarming top Democrats who say those efforts represent an unprecedented seizure of power.David Lebryk, the longtime career official who oversaw Treasury’s vast financing and payments operations, suddenly resigned on Friday after clashing with Trump officials over granting access to the payments system, which contains details about the people who receive government payments. The system controls payments to Social Security recipients, people entitled to tax refunds, organizations receiving grants, as well as payments to federal workers and government contractors.A Treasury Department spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. Neither did a White House spokesperson for Musk’s DOGE group.Confusion over who will be granted access to Treasury’s payments rails — as well as whether their responsibilities could allow them to cut off payments — has opened a new front in the political fight over Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency. Another person familiar with the situation said Treasury officials were extremely displeased with the situation.Musk suggested on Saturday that his government efficiency group’s effort to gain greater control over Treasury’s payments to Americans was about rooting out fraud or illicit payments.“The @DOGE team discovered, among other things, that payment approval officers at Treasury were instructed always to approve payments, even to known fraudulent or terrorist groups,” Musk wrote. “They literally never denied a payment in their entire career. Not even once.”Musk did not offer any evidence for his claim that Treasury instructed employees to approve payments to known fraudulent or terrorist groups.The Bureau of Fiscal Service, which operates Treasury’s payment system, has a payments integrity office tasked with identifying, preventing and recovering fraud and improper payments. According to Treasury, those efforts have prevented improper payments totaling nearly $155 million and have aided in the recovery of nearly $350 million.“BFS is studiously apolitical,” said Lily Batchelder, who served as a Treasury secretary for tax policy during the Biden administration. “It is deeply concerning that political appointees in the White House would be attempting to interfere with people’s Social Security benefits and tax refunds.”Democrats have criticized efforts by Trump political appointees and Musk’s DOGE to assert more control over a federal payments system that has long been run by nonpolitical career employees.“To put it bluntly, these payment systems simply cannot fail, and any politically motivated meddling in them risks severe damage to our country and the economy,” Sen. Ron Wyden, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, wrote to Bessent on Friday evening. The Oregon Democrat on Saturday raised alarms about the possibility that Musk’s allies would be in a position to gain information that could aid the billionaire’s vast business empire.Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee, similarly called for a congressional investigation.The federal government has safeguards that are meant to prevent incorrect payments. For example, a Do Not Pay portal allows agencies to verify whether a recipient is dead, blacklisted from government contracting, sanctioned, incarcerated or otherwise ineligible.During the Biden administration, Treasury touted new efforts to use artificial intelligence to detect fraud and improper payments. Treasury said in October that the effort had prevented and recovered more than $4 billion in the 2024 fiscal year.Yet improper payments in federal programs have been a perennial problem that has long drawn the concern of government watchdogs and congressional lawmakers. Improper payments across the government spiked in recent years when Congress approved massive new relief programs to help Americans during the Covid-19 pandemic.The Government Accountability Office estimated last year that the federal government could be losing between $233 billion and $521 billion each year due to fraud.Federal agencies reported $236 billion in improper payments in the 2024 fiscal year. The bulk came from Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, pandemic relief loans to small businesses, Treasury’s earned income tax credit and Social Security payments.

Trump grants Musk access to every American’s data to spearhead social spending cuts -- In the two weeks since Donald Trump took office, the character of his administration as a government of, by and for the oligarchy has become undeniable. Extraordinary power has been handed to the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, with complete disregard for legality and democratic process. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), the entity Musk now controls, is spearheading a massive wrecking operation aimed at dismantling social programs, destroying jobs and consolidating corporate dictatorship over every aspect of American society. Trump has granted Musk unprecedented control of the personal data of virtually every American citizen. Two of Musk’s top aides, now designated as temporary Treasury employees, have been given full access to the Bureau of Fiscal Service, which processes over 1 billion federal transactions annually—including Social Security and other retirement payments, income tax payments and refunds, and the paychecks of all federal government employees. A court order issued Thursday afternoon temporarily barred Musk’s aides from sharing this information with him or other DOGE agents, pending a full hearing on Friday. However, the trajectory of Trump’s policy and Musk’s activities is unmistakable. While the White House and Treasury insist that DOGE’s access is “read-only,” Musk himself boasted that his aides were already intervening in the federal payments system to halt what he arbitrarily deemed illegal or fraudulent transactions. Concerns have been raised that Musk’s IT aides are creating a “back door” into the Treasury system, allowing Trump to bypass Congress in the next fiscal crisis, expected when federal spending hits the legal debt ceiling in mid-March. This would give the White House unilateral control over federal payments. This would allow Trump to proceed as he wanted to during shutdowns in his first term, but could not—ensuring obligations to bondholders, weapons manufacturers, and the military-intelligence apparatus are met while defaulting on essential programs like education funding, Medicaid reimbursements and even Social Security checks. Further escalating its reach, DOGE gained access Wednesday to select databases of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid, which manages $1.5 trillion in payments—one-quarter of the federal budget. Without providing any evidence, Musk claimed on X that Medicare was “where the big money fraud is happening.” While DOGE aides have begun reviewing payment and contracting systems, they have yet to gain access to databases containing personal and health information on nearly 150 million Americans. In another major front of the Musk-Trump social counterrevolution, a federal judge temporarily blocked the Thursday midnight deadline for a “deferred resignation” plan targeting 2.3 million federal workers. A memorandum from the Office of Personnel Management on Monday gave employees just three days to opt into a severance package, offering their regular salaries through September 30, 2025, in exchange for leaving their jobs. Federal employee unions challenged the “offer” in court, arguing it was illegal since there is no guarantee of federal funding beyond mid-March, when the debt ceiling is expected to be breached. With Congress yet to pass a budget for the current fiscal year, which ends September 30, workers would effectively be forfeiting their jobs for a promise that could be rescinded within weeks. The Trump administration claimed that 50,000 workers have signed up for the deferred resignation package, but this is less than a quarter of the 200,000 jobs the White House has targeted for elimination. The separation offer was apparently drafted by DOGE and modeled on a similar memo Musk issued to Twitter employees after his takeover, which resulted in mass layoffs and job buyouts. The job destruction plan is aimed at gutting critical social programs. For example, the largest single group of federal employees—over 100,000 nurses caring for military veterans through the Department of Veterans Affairs—are already severely overworked, like nurses across the broader US healthcare system. Cutting 10 percent of these positions under the Trump-Musk plan would be catastrophic for patients and could lead to the effective collapse of the VA. DOGE agents have also arrived at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which plays a crucial role in monitoring hurricanes and other extreme weather events. Meanwhile, at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), newly confirmed chief Lee Zeldin has already targeted 1,000 jobs, ordering that all workers with less than a year’s seniority be placed on notice for potential termination. Musk’s role in this social wrecking operation is of enormous significance. He is an open fascist sympathizer—evidenced by his embrace of Germany’s neo-Nazi AfD—and one of Trump’s most powerful financial backers. The obscene spectacle of the world’s richest man slashing aid to the poor, sick and elderly under the guise of eliminating “waste, fraud and abuse” is not lost on the working class. Musk has become the embodiment of the financial oligarchy’s stranglehold over American society. The White House has classified Musk as a “special government employee,” exempting him from most conflict-of-interest and financial disclosure rules. He is “special” in another way, as House Republicans demonstrated by blocking a proposal to have Musk testify before the House Government Oversight Committee about his role in restructuring the federal government. In this environment, which adjectives like “nightmarish” and “Orwellian” seem entirely inadequate to describe, the role of the Democratic Party combines collaboration with empty posturing. Congressional Democratic leaders have claimed to oppose Trump’s attacks on federal workers and on social spending programs, although they have done little or nothing to stop them. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer condemned DOGE, in words, saying, “An unelected shadow government is conducting a hostile takeover of the federal government.” But Schumer and other top Democrats have attacked Musk not as a representative of the class of billionaire oligarchs, but as one whose extensive business interests in China call into question his loyalty to American imperialism. MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell, a key media ally of the Democrats, raised the question, “What are the chances that Elon Musk would let his friends in the Chinese government know a little bit more or a lot more about the inner workings of the United States Treasury? Does anyone think there is a zero chance of that happening?” Meanwhile, Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom of California met with Trump in the White House for an hour on Wednesday, discussing recovery operations after the disastrous wildfires in Los Angeles. Newsom came out issuing a statement that said: “Thank you, President Trump, for coming to our communities to see this first hand and meeting with me today to continue our joint efforts to support people impacted.” The governor did not reveal if his discussion with Trump included the massive military effort to police the US-Mexico border, including in California, or the stepped up raids in immigrant communities. The massive assault on social programs, of which the past week’s events are only an initial step, is not fundamentally a product of the personal characteristics of Trump or Musk. Rather, it reflects the social physiognomy of the capitalist oligarchy itself. The Trump administration’s efforts to establish the framework of dictatorial rule—spearheaded through the attack on immigrants—are, in their essence, an attack on the entire working class.

Chris Murphy says tax records ‘potentially compromised’ by Elon Musk — Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said Americans’ tax records could be “potentially compromised” by Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Murphy joined CNN’s Jake Tapper on Monday, where he sounded the alarm about Musk’s growing influence over the federal government, and its payment systems in particular. Musk allies working with DOGE were reportedly given access to the Treasury Department’s federal payment system over the weekend, causing an uproar by Democrats. Tapper asked Murphy if he has an issue with DOGE accessing the system Treasury Department officials use to disburse funds. “Of course I do,” the Connecticut Democrat replied. “First of all, every American needs to know that your information, your personal tax records, have been potentially compromised, that unelected billionaires and his Silicon Valley right-wing friends may have access to all of your personal information.” The Treasury Department systems control $6 trillion annually and distribute funds for Social Security, Medicare, salaries for federal workers, payments to government contractors, payments to grant recipients and tax refunds. David Lebryk, a top nonpolitical career official at the Treasury Department, retired last week after clashing with Musk allies over access to the systems. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) sent a letter Monday to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent demanding to know what level of access Musk was given in the system. Murphy disagreed with DOGE officials who say they were sorting through government spending to make sure it aligns with President Trump’s agenda. “That is just fancy talk to say we’re going to give money to people who pledge loyalty to Donald Trump and we’re not going to give money to people who don’t pledge loyalty to Donald Trump,” Murphy said. He added that DOGE officials may be going through government contracts, but with access to more, “tomorrow, it may be your tax refund.”

Warren presses Treasury Secretary Bessent over Musk access to payments system — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday demanding to know what access Elon Musk was given to the federal payments system and what safeguards were implemented to protect Americans’ private data and prevent abuses. “I write regarding a disturbing report that — in one of your first acts after your confirmation as Treasury secretary — you have given Elon Musk and his surrogates ‘full access’ to the federal government’s critical payment systems, which includes the sensitive personal information of millions of Americans,” Warren wrote in a letter to Bessent, whom the Senate confirmed last week. Warren warned “it is extraordinarily dangerous to meddle with the critical systems that process trillions of dollars of transactions each year.” She said she was “alarmed” by reports that Bessent reportedly “sidelined” an official responsible for managing the extraordinary measures the Treasury Department needs to extend federal borrowing authority, which formally expired last month. Treasury’s highest-ranking career official, David Lebryk, left the department last week after reportedly clashing with Musk over access to the payments system. Warren says she wants answers about Bessent’s role in what she called “this security and management failure” and about “How you intend to protect the integrity of the federal government’s financial operations after handing over the systems to Mr. Musk’s team.” She noted the federal payments system controls the flow of $6 trillion in payments related Social Security, Medicare, federal salaries, government payments, grants and tax refunds. The system has historically been “closely held,” Warren said, because it includes sensitive personal information of tens of millions of Americans. She expressed her concerns that Musk could act unilaterally to shut off federal programs and funding obligations. “Controlling the system could allow the Trump administration to ‘unilaterally’ — and illegally — cut off payments for millions of Americans, putting at risk the financial security of families and businesses based on political favoritism or the whims of Mr. Musk and those on his team who have worked their way inside,” she wrote. She asked Bessent to confirm reports that Musk and his team gained access to the payments systems and to disclose specifically who has gained access and to which systems. She also asked for details about what safeguards are in place to protect Americans’ personal and private data, to protect national security and to protect the integrity of the payments system. She requested Bessent provide answers by Feb. 7.

Democrats promise bill to block ‘unlawful meddling’ in Treasury systems after Musk allies gain access -Democratic leaders in both chambers on Monday vowed to introduce legislation to “stop unlawful meddling in the Treasury Department’s payment systems.”Democrats have been sounding the alarm over reports that the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by billionaire tech investor Elon Musk, was given access to the Treasury Department’s sensitive payment systems.“We must protect people’s Social Security payments, their Medicare payments, tax refunds, from any possible tampering by DOGE or any other unauthorized entities,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told reporters at a press conference on Monday. David Lebryk, who was the Treasury’s highest-ranking career official, resigned following a clashwith Musk over access to the systems, a source familiar with the matter told The Hill on condition of anonymity. Reports also emerged over the weekend that officials at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) also blocked Musk’s allies from gaining access to secure systems.President Trump said on Monday that Musk “can’t do and won’t do anything without our approval,” but he added that his administration will “give him the approval where appropriate.”“We’re trying to shrink government, and he can probably shrink it as well as anybody else, if not better, where we think there’s a conflict or if there’s a problem, we won’t let him go near it,” Trump said, but he added that Musk “has some very good ideas.”Democrats are targeting Musk as he emerges as a key player in the Trump administration’s cost-cutting efforts.House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) earlier Monday released a “dear colleague” letter laying out a 10-point plan for combating Trump, including a bill targeting “unlawful access” to the Treasury Department payment system.Democratic leaders are accusing the president of overstepping his powers on spending. Recent efforts by Trump to freeze federal aid have also been tied up in the courts as critics raise questions of legality. “Let’s not mince words here: An unelected, unaccountable billionaire with expansive conflicts of interest, deep ties to China and an indiscreet axe to grind against perceived enemies is hijacking our nation’s most sensitive financial data systems and its checkbook so that he can illegally block funds to our constituents based on the slightest whim or wildest conspiracy funds,” Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), top Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, said to reporters on Monday, referring to Musk.“Some Republicans are trying to suggest that Musk only has viewing access to Treasury’s highly sensitive payment system, as if that’s acceptable either,” she said. “But why on Earth should we believe that, particularly when he is saying the exact opposite, loudly and repeatedly, for everyone to see?”

Tankus and Kelton on Musk’s DOGE Seizing Treasury’s Payments Chokepoint. But Where Are The Lawyers? by Lambert Strether - Readers will be familiar with friend-of-the-blog Nathan Tankus and non-mainstream economist extraordinaire Stephanie Kelton from the MMT wars. If you’re not, you should be (Tankus’s blog; Kelton’s). Both have now entered the fray over DOGE (Elon’s Dangerous Oligarchs Grab Everything “Department of Government Efficiency” (quotes in theexecutive order that gave it horrid birth, since it’s not really a department). Both Tankus and Kelton have advanced the story in way that our mainstream press seems unable to do; I will look at Tankus first, then Kelton. I will then undertake the thankless task of ascertaining DOGE’s current status; it’s now a “temporary organization,” a piece of organizational jujitsu, which renders most, but not all, of the current lawsuits against DOGE moot. I will then present a brief fact set drawn from the current more-heat-than-light DOGE dogpiles — the Lutherans, USAID — before presenting a little blue sky thinking on future legal and political attacks on DOGE (given that lawfare what Democrats seem to be best at). If I am lucky, some readers will find the blue sky thinking helpful, as with HICPAC. Finally, I will not be covering Elon’s rampage through Twitter’s innards, suggestive though it may be for the course of DOGE, or the corruption of Silicon Valley’s “better to ask for forgiveness than permission” culture, or Elon’s extremely young team of Peter Thiel-adjacent blood bags programmers. Perhaps another time! (Adding, this might get a bit long. Sorry!)

• Tankus: Elon Musk Wants to Get Operational Control of the Treasury’s Payment System. This Could Not Possibly Be More Dangerous
• Kelton: Will the Ratings Agencies React to the Breakdown in Governance?

Treasury: DOGE will have ‘read-only’ access to federal payment systems -- After people working for Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) reportedly sought to gain access to a sensitive federal payment system, the Treasury Department is saying that a review of the system is underway and that staff members will have “read-only” access to the information. Staff, working with a Treasury employee named as Tom Krause, will have access to payment system data, a letter from an unnamed Treasury official sent out Tuesday reads. The letter describes Krause as “a longtime technology executive” with “experience in building companies and managing balance sheets” and notes that he will be given a top-secret security clearance. “Treasury staff members working with Tom Krause, a Treasury employee, will have read-only access to the coded data of the Fiscal Service’s payment systems in order to continue this operational efficiency assessment,” the letter says. Krause is further described by Treasury as an “expert/consultant” hired as a “special government employee.” The payment system, known as the Fiscal Service, handles about 90 percent of all federal payments comprising 1.2 billion transactions a year, including Social Security and Medicare payments. The review of the Fiscal Service hasn’t resulted in any delayed or suspended payment, the Treasury official said. The attempt to access the system led to the resignation of longtime Treasury official David A. Lebryk, The Washington Post reported Friday, leading to fears that DOGE was interfering in core governmental functions. The access attempt has led to at least one lawsuit. “The scale of the intrusion into individuals’ privacy is massive and unprecedented,” the Public Citizen Litigation Group, the Alliance for Retired Americans and the Service Employees International Union said in a complaint filed in a District of Columbia federal court on Saturday. “People who must share information with the federal government should not be forced to share information with Elon Musk or his ‘DOGE,’” the complaint says.

Trump-Musk wrecking operation illegally shuts down 2 federal agencies, gains access to Treasury payment system - Acting with the approval of US President Donald Trump, representatives of billionaire Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, took control early Monday of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), firing hundreds of employees and instructing all of the agency’s nearly 10,000 employees worldwide to stay home and stop working. A similar operation was carried out a few hours later at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), an independent federal agency set up after the 2008 Wall Street crash. Trump named Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—himself a hedge fund billionaire—as interim administrator of the agency. Bessent then told the 1,600 employees of the CFPB to stop working while he reviewed its operations, which include numerous lawsuits against major banks and corporations over consumer fraud. Both actions were entirely unlawful. The two agencies were established by Congress, the USAID under the Kennedy administration in 1961 and the CFPB in 2010. Neither can be shut down on the say-so of the president alone, without congressional action. But Trump’s policy since his inauguration has been to break the law whenever he pleases, relying on the impotence of the Democrats and support of his fascist partisans in the Supreme Court. In relation to the USAID, several officials from the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), the Musk-run group Trump established by executive order, arrived at the headquarters Saturday but were denied access to some of the premises by agency security officials. A confrontation ensued, with threats to bring in US Marshals, before the Musk aides were given access. The two top security officials at USAID were immediately placed on administrative leave, and Musk tweeted, in the gangster lingo both he and Trump embrace: “USAID is a criminal organization. Time for it to die.” He later declared on X, which he owns, “USAID was a viper’s nest of radical-left marxists who hate America.” Trump added his own vilification, claiming USAID was run by “a bunch of radical lunatics. And we’re getting them out.” Such language testifies to the fascist mania that is now gripping the US financial oligarchy. While the bulk of its $50 billion budget funds food aid and refugee relief projects in 60 countries, USAID was established as an instrument of American imperialist foreign policy during the Cold War. It has long been used as a cover for US intelligence operations in countries where the official military-intelligence agencies lacked access. The closure of the USAID and CFPB is a dress rehearsal for the shutdown of much more important agencies, with genuine popular support, like the Department of Education, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, and much of the Department of Health and Human Services. These have all been targeted for elimination or deep cuts, spelled out in the 900-page blueprint for the new administration drawn up in Project 2025. The USAID and CFPB employees have been put out on the street with little or no chance of either returning to work or finding an equivalent position if the two agencies are integrated into larger federal units, like the State Department or the Treasury, as some officials suggest. Musk is effectively treating the workforce of the federal government like the super-exploited workers in his Tesla factories or the workers at Twitter, fired en masse after he bought the social media platform and reorganized it, turning it into a mouthpiece for fascist propaganda. The ruthless treatment of the federal workers is a warning to the working class as a whole. In 1981, President Ronald Reagan gave the green light for a wave of corporate union-busting when he carried out the mass firing of striking PATCO air traffic controllers. Trump and Musk are following that example, only this time applying it more broadly, to a vast array of federal workers. The shutdown of the two federal agencies follows Trump’s attempt last week to halt all federal grants and payments in an order issued by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the White House agency that oversees federal spending. A federal judge temporarily blocked that order, which had already led to the shutdown of federal payments to state, local and non-governmental agencies, including for Medicaid, the most widely used US health insurance program. Trump vowed to continue the attack on federal social spending. On Friday, at his instruction, DOGE was given access to the Bureau of Fiscal Service (BFS), the Treasury system which carries out more than 1 billion transactions a year. The BFS sends out 90 percent of the payments made by the US government, including Social Security checks, income tax refunds and federal paychecks. The Treasury’s top career civil servant, David Lebryk, abruptly retired after objecting to the blatant political intervention into a previously purely technical apparatus: The Treasury merely executes payments approved by other federal agencies but does not rule on their merits. It is clear that Trump and Musk are seeking direct control of the payment mechanism to enforce the cuts that they were temporarily barred from carrying out by the court order. While Treasury Secretary Bessent claimed that the access was “read-only,” Musk has already boasted on X that DOGE aides are “rapidly shutting down” payments. Although Musk claimed that “terrorist” groups were receiving funds from the Treasury, the only acknowledged cutoff was a funding for a Lutheran charity.

Judge blocks DOGE access to Treasury payment systems --A federal judge on Friday night prevented President Donald Trump's government cost-cutting unit from accessing Treasury payment systems for at least a week while a state-led lawsuit is heard in court. A group of 19 state attorneys general have sued the Trump administration, alleging the Department of Government Efficiency's move is illegal. The injunction is pending a hearing Feb. 14.

Congress puts hold on Trump’s $1 billion arms sale to Israel - Congress has placed a hold on a $1 billion arms sale package for Israel that was readied alongside President Trump welcoming Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Washington on Tuesday. Two congressional aides told The Hill on Tuesday that a hold has been placed on the arms sale package. The Wall Street Journal first reported the hold, saying Democratic lawmakers had exercised a hold.The four top lawmakers on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have the power to individually block arms sales orders when over a certain dollar amount.Netanyahu is the first foreign leader to visit Trump since he returned to the White House, generally a recognition of the importance of the relationship. A hold on arms sales to Israel signals a major flouting of convention, where U.S. military support for Israel is viewed as an investment in American national security. The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, reported that the $1 billion arms sale package includes 4,700 1,000-pound bombs, worth more than $700 million, as well as armored bulldozers built by Caterpillar, worth more than $300 million. The hold comes as Democrats have seethed over Trump’s actions a little over two weeks into his presidency. They pushed back on an initial federal aid freeze; are condemning a halt on U.S. foreign assistance; raising alarm over the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID); and opposing the president’s threats of tariffs on America’s neighbors Mexico and Canada, to name a few of the high-profile conflicts. But there are few options for Democrats to push back on Trump’s agenda absent Republican allies, given the GOP’s majorities in the House and Senate. Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) and Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) have announced they will delay and stall Trump’s State Department nominees until the administration retreats on its efforts to break up USAID. Trump could try to override the Israeli arms sale hold. In 2019, he issued an emergency declaration to push through more than $8 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan without congressional approval. The Republican-controlled Senate at the time voted to block the sale. Arms sales to Israel are historically bipartisan, even as Democrats have increasingly raised alarm over Israel’s war conduct in the Gaza Strip and Netanyahu’s policies toward Palestinians. Amid Israel’s war against Hamas in response to the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, an estimated half of the nearly 47,000 Palestinian casualties are women, children and the elderly. Nearly all of the 2 million Gaza residents require humanitarian assistance, and 90 percent are displaced among widespread destruction. Still, Democrats in positions of power did not stand in the way of President Biden sending weapons to Israel or green-lighting arms sales. In June, Biden moved forward on a $18 billion arms sale to Israel.

Trump floats US taking over Gaza Strip - President Trump on Tuesday floated the idea of the U.S. taking over the Gaza Strip, saying America should be responsible for clearing the territory of rubble and unexploded bombs and proposing an “economic development.” Trump’s remarks are some of his most extreme rhetoric regarding the future of the territory where nearly 2 million Palestinians live and hope to be part of a future Palestinian state. Trump also suggested the U.S. would develop the land but gave no details on who would be allowed to live there. The president said he envisioned Palestinians will live there but seemed to describe the territory as an international hub where “the world’s people” would use it for access to the Mediterranean coast. The idea appears to build on Trump’s 2020 peace plan that envisioned Gaza’s coastline developed for commercial and leisure resorts. The plan was developed by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, whose background is in real estate development. “I think you’ll make that into an international, unbelievable place… I don’t want to be cute, I don’t want to be a wise guy, but the Riviera of the Middle East… this could be so magnificent.” Asked about the possibility of sending U.S. troops to Gaza, Trump said the U.S. will “do what is necessary” as he laid out plans for the U.S. to take the area over, and suggested he would visit the territory. “As far as Gaza is concerned, we’ll do what is necessary. If it’s necessary, we’ll do that,” Trump said. “The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job — whether we’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site, and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out,” Trump said. “Create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area, do a real job, do something different.” Trump made the statements during his opening remarks at a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. “I do see a long-term ownership position,” Trump continued. “This was not a decision made lightly. Everybody I’ve spoken to loves the idea of the United States owning that piece of land, developing and creating thousands of jobs with something that will be magnificent in a really magnificent area that nobody would know, nobody can look because all they see is death and destruction and rubble and demolished buildings falling all over.”

Trump Says the US Will 'Take Over' the Gaza Strip - President Trump said on Tuesday that the US would “take over” the Gaza Strip, a surprise announcement he made while speaking with reporters at the White House during a press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.“The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it, too. We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out, create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for people of the area,” Trump said.The president said earlier that the Palestinians must be removed from Gaza “permanently,” making it clear the plan will involve the ethnic cleansing of the territory despite strong resistance from neighboring Arab states. The plan also implies that the US would rebuild Gaza for Jewish settlers.Trump was asked who would live in Gaza under his plan and replied, “The world’s people,” and suggested some Palestinians may also be allowed.He said, “I think the entire world, representatives from all over the world, will be there, and they’ll live there. Palestinians, also, … will live there. Many people will live there.”Trump also said he wouldn’t rule out deploying troops to Gaza. When asked if his plan meant he would send troops, Trump said, “If it’s necessary, we’ll do that. We’re gonna take over that piece and develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs. It will be something the entire Middle East can be very proud of.”The president suggested he had been considering the plan for a long time. “I see a long-term ownership position and bringing great stability to that part of the Middle East. Everybody I’ve spoken to — this was not a decision made lightly — everybody loves the idea of the US owning that piece of land, developing and creating thousands of jobs with something that will be magnificent in a magnificent area nobody would really know. They look, and all they see is death and destruction and rubble,” he said. Netanyahu also commented on the plan, saying, “President Trump is taking it to a much higher level. He sees a different future for that piece of land that has been the focus of so much terrorism and attacks against us, so many trials and tribulations. He has a different idea and it’s worth paying attention to this. He’s exploring it and it’s something that could change history.”

Alongside Netanyahu, Trump Says Palestinians in Gaza Should Be Removed 'Permanently' - The president said Palestinians could no longer live in Gaza due to the destruction caused by the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign - Alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, President Trump said Palestinians should be removed from Gaza on a “permanent” basis.“You look over the decades, it’s all death in Gaza. This has been happening for years, it’s all death. If we can get a beautiful area to resettle people permanently in nice homes where they can be happy and not be shot and not be killed,” Trump told reporters. Trump’s repeated calls to “clean out” Palestinians from Gaza have raised fears that the US may support the ethnic cleansing of the territory, the ideal outcome for the Israeli government. Despite very strong opposition from Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states, Trump has continued to double down on the idea.Trump said at the White House that he believes Palestinians can be resettled in “areas where the leaders currently say no.” He said Palestinians could no longer live there due to the destruction caused by the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign and the threat of unexploded ordnances, among other things.The president said repeatedly that the conditions in Gaza have been “like hell,” a result of the Israeli blockade that was first imposed on the Strip in 2007. “I don’t think people should be going back to Gaza. I think Gaza has been very unlucky for them. They’ve lived like hell, they’ve lived like you’re living in hell. Gaza is not a place for people to be living. And the only reason they want to go back, and I believe this strongly, is because they have no alternative,” he said.When asked if Palestinians would have the right to return to Gaza, Trump said, “It would be my hope that we could do something really nice, really good, where they wouldn’t want to return. Why would they want to return? That place has been hell.” Israeli officials have welcomed Trump’s idea, which has overwhelming support among Jewish Israelis, and frame what would be ethnic cleansing as “voluntary migration.” But since Israel has made Gaza uninhabitable, Palestinians who don’t want to leave might have no choice but to go for their survival if given the option. Not only have the majority of residential buildings in Gaza been destroyed, but the infrastructure has also been completely shattered.Regardless of the living situation in Gaza, removing the Palestinian population would face significant resistance from Hamas, which has replaced the fighters it has lost in the Israeli onslaught, according to US intelligence. A Hamas official said on Tuesday that Trump’s proposal was a “recipe for chaos” in the region.“Our people in the Gaza Strip will not allow these plans to pass. What is required is an end to the occupation and aggression against our people, not their expulsion from their land,” said Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri, according to Al Jazeera.

Trump suggests permanent resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza, US takeover - President Trump on Tuesday suggested Palestinians should be permanently relocated out of the Gaza Strip and that the United States should take over the territory after it was reduced to rubble by more than 15 months of war between Israel and Hamas. Trump, who was alongside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a White House visit, doubled down on his suggestion that neighboring Jordan and Egypt take in those from Gaza. But Tuesday was the first time Trump was more clear about Palestinians not returning to their homes in the coastal enclave, even after it’s been rebuilt. “It would be my hope that we could do something really nice, really good, where they wouldn’t want to return. Why would they want to return? The place has been hell,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “I don’t think people should be going back to Gaza,” he added. “Gaza is not a place for people to be living, and the only reason they want to go back, and I believe this strongly, is because they have no alternative. … If they had an alternative, they’d much rather not go back to Gaza and live in a beautiful alternative that’s safe.” Trump’s comments are the furthest he has gone to date in suggesting Palestinians should be moved out of Gaza, which he referred to as a “demolition site.” Trump was more vague when asked whether a Palestinian state was necessary to broker ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a key demand of the latter. “They are demanding one thing. You know what it is? Peace.” During a subsequent joint press conference with Netanyahu, Trump further outlined his vision for a Gaza Strip that would not be rebuilt for Palestinians, but instead would be taken over and owned by the United States. “The U.S. will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it,” Trump said. “We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out, create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area.” Trump suggested other neighboring countries could invest millions of dollars to create “numerous sites or one large site” where Palestinians could relocate. The president left open the possibility of U.S. troops being used to secure the Gaza Strip “if it’s necessary.” Netanyahu called Trump’s proposal “something that could change history, and it’s worthwhile really pursuing this avenue.” U.S. policy across multiple administrations has consistently backed a two-state solution, but Trump’s remarks stand to put that in question along with efforts toward Palestinian sovereignty. Arab leaders in the region have said efforts to displace Palestinians or move them into neighboring countries are a nonstarter. Egypt and Jordan, countries with peace treaties with Israel, oppose absorbing Palestinians, claiming it poses a security risk, is destabilizing and threatens to provoke mass opposition. Jordan already houses about 3 million Palestinians, many of whom already have been displaced by prior wars. Trump suggested Tuesday that Palestinians could be relocated to up to a dozen places or one place. He gave no further details.

Trump calls for total ethnic cleansing and US annexation of Gaza -- Speaking Tuesday at a joint appearance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington, US President Donald Trump called for the complete ethnic cleansing of the Gaza Strip, the leveling of all its buildings and the annexation of the territory by the United States. The Gaza Strip, Trump said, “should not go through a process of rebuilding and occupation by the same people that…lived a miserable existence there.” Trump called for “other countries” to “build various domains that will ultimately be occupied by the 1.8 million Palestinians living in Gaza.” Trump added, “it could be numerous sites or it could be one large site.” He continued, “The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it too. We’ll own it.” Trump said the US will “level it out” and “create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs.” Asked if the US will send troops to occupy Gaza, Trump said, “If it’s necessary, we’ll do that. We’re going to take over that place and we’re going to develop it, create thousands and thousands of jobs.” Throughout its coverage of the Gaza genocide, the World Socialist Web Site has explained that American imperialism is seeking the “final solution of the Palestinian question.” Now, Trump, the uninhibited voice of American imperialism, has spelled out exactly what this “final solution” will be. Trump’s proposal would be a death knell for the Palestinian people. If he gets his way, the people of Gaza will be scattered in concentration camps in deserts and wastelands, while their ancestral homeland on the Levantine coast will be converted into resorts and casinos by the cronies of Trump and Netanyahu. Trump’s speech marked the descent of American imperialism to a level of barbarism and criminality unseen since the fall of the Nazi regime. Eighty years after over a dozen Nazi leaders were hanged in the ruined city of Nuremberg for war crimes, crimes against humanity and mass murder, the methods of the Holocaust are not only being implemented but openly praised by the head of the world’s most powerful imperialist state. In making his blood-curdling decrees, Trump spoke with visible joy. He was practically drooling over the real estate deals to be cut, describing a “Riviera of the Middle East,” as if seeing visions of sprawling golf courses and glimmering casinos built atop the plowed-over and unburied corpses of Palestinian women and children.

Trump Commits to Ethnic Cleansing in Gaza by Yves Smith - Trump is delivering and then some on his commitment to be a better friend to Israel than even the Biden Administration was, which is a tall order. Recall that Blinken came to be regularly described as Netanyahu’s lawyer.Many thought that Trump was simply throwing bouquets at Israel when he repeated the Blinken demand, that had been firmly, even fiercely, rejected by Egypt and, Jordan, that it enable Israel’s ethnic cleansing and accept what were then over 2 million Gazans. After Trump’s recent statement, the Arab League also voiced opposition. Forcibly displacing Palestinians into Jordan and Egypt would destabilize both governments and experts have said it would probably lead to their fall.When challenged that both countries had already said no, Trump insisted the displacement would proceed. And he is going ahead. From Larry Johnson:Trump announced tonight he wants to take over Gaza: The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it, too. We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous, unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site, and get rid of the destroyed buildings, level it out, create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area. Do a real job, do something different. Just can’t go back. If you go back, it’s going to end up the same way it has for 100 years. Trump also insisted that the Palestinians will be relocated to a third country (unspecified) and will not have a right to return. This was scripted. You can see Trump is reading from a note card. Trump claims he has talked this over with Arab leaders in the region and that they are in favor of the deal. That is a lie. Powerful Arab nations rejected President Trump’s suggestion to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to neighboring Egypt and Jordan. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the Palestinian Authority and the Arab League released a joint statement rejecting any plans to move Palestinians out of their territories in Gaza and the occupied West Bank. Johnson, who had earlier thought the Trump talk of evicting the Gazans was bluster, now believes that Trump has gotten Netanyahu to agree to not further attacks on Iran as he tries to work out a bargain. Putting US forces in Gaza might also be intended to force Netanyahu to continue the ceasefire. But as Johnson stressed, “Any hope that Trump will help the Palestinians was dashed today.” I am taking the liberty of posting a new Alon Mizrahi post in full, given that he states that his aim is to get his message out to as many people around the world as quickly as possible. As you can see, he believes that time is of the essence if there is to be any hope of saving the Palestinians. Frederick Douglass would concur with Mizrahi on the importance of a concrete demand, here, that governments sever all ties with Israel: Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will. Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.

Trump Goes All-In On Stealing Gaza For His Zionist Owners -Caitlin Johnstone- Grinning like the cat that ate the canary, Hague fugitive Benjamin Netanyahu sat beside Donald Trump as the US president unequivocally told the press on Tuesday that the plan for Gaza is to permanently remove all Palestinians from the enclave.“I don’t think people should be going back to Gaza,” Trump said. “I think that Gaza has been very unlucky for them. They’ve lived like hell.”Asked for clarification on whether the Palestinians would have a right to return to Gaza after its reconstruction, Trump said the plan is to build them housing in other countries that’s so nice they won’t want to return.“It would be my hope that we could do something really nice, really good, where they wouldn’t want to return,” Trump said, adding, “I hope that we could do something where they wouldn’t want to go back. Who would want to go back? They’ve experienced nothing but death and destruction.”Asked how many people he was talking about removing, Trump replied, “All of them.”Shortly thereafter, the president announced that the US would soon “take over” and “own” Gaza and oversee construction projects there. “The US will take over the Gaza Strip, and we will do a job with it, too,” Trump said. “We’ll own it and be responsible for dismantling all of the dangerous unexploded bombs and other weapons on the site, level the site and get rid of the destroyed buildings — level it out. Create an economic development that will supply unlimited numbers of jobs and housing for the people of the area.”Given what Trump previously said about permanently removing all Palestinians from Gaza, there is no question who he is talking about when he says he wants to provide housing for “the people of the area”. He is talking about a very straightforward ethnic cleansing operation, driven by the United States.Trump clarified that when he said the US would “own” the Gaza Strip, he did not misspeak. “Everybody I’ve spoken to loves the idea of the United States owning that piece of land,” he told the press.Trump reiterated his previously stated position that the people of Gaza could be relocated to Jordan or Egypt or “other countries”. Of course the possibility of Palestinians living anywhere else in their historic homeland has not been mentioned, because that’s not how ethnic cleansing works. The agenda is to remove an undesirable population from the land so that they can be replaced with a desirable one; allowing Palestinians from Gaza to live in Israeli territory or the West Bank during reconstruction would defeat the purpose of Israel’s actions since October 2023.Trump repeatedly spoke of how devastated, dangerous and uninhabitable Gaza is, making it sound like the area was hit by an unfortunate natural disaster and not a deliberate and methodical operation to make the enclave unlivable. This ethnic cleansing plan is being presented as a humanitarian solution to tragic circumstances, when in reality the US and Israel destroyed Gaza on purpose with the goal of advancing the exact agenda they are working to advance today.This move is sure to be aggressively resisted, both internally by Hamas and by neighboring powers, even if the Trump administration can find nations willing to facilitate its ethnic cleansing plans. This means we can expect significantly more violence and killing in the region if this agenda moves forward.And it should here be mentioned that Donald Trump has publicly admitted to being bought and owned by Zionist oligarchs. The president openly acknowledged on the campaign trail that the first time he was president, megadonors Sheldon and Miriam Adelson were at the White House “probably almost more than anybody” demanding favors for Israel like moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and acknowledging Israel’s illegitimate claim to the Golan Heights, which he eagerly granted. Miriam Adelson, who is Israeli-American, gave the Trump campaign $100 million last year.And that’s the price of entry if you want to become president of the United States. You have to make alliances with oligarchs and empire managers who want very ugly things for our world, and you have to be the sort of person who is sufficiently dead inside to make such Faustian bargains. That’s why US presidents are so consistently evil; if they weren’t, they’d never make it anywhere near the presidency.

Arab, Muslim Americans blast Trump’s ‘grotesque’ Gaza proposal- Arab American and Muslim American leaders are blasting President Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza, warning that it’s antithetical to their beliefs and amounts to ethnic cleansing. The backlash comes after Trump made significant inroads among these groups’ voters in the November election, peeling them away from the Democratic Party, which has been their home for decades, in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. But while these leaders have no kind words for Trump’s plans, they’re also pointing blame at both former President Biden and former Vice President Harris for allowing the conflict to continue and not taking the opportunity to convince voters that they were a better alternative. “You got to remember that Donald Trump today is talking about moving Palestinians out of Gaza because they have no homes,” said Yousef Munayyer, the head of the Palestine/Israel program and a senior fellow at the Arab Center Washington DC. “They have no homes because of Joe Biden’s policy. And this is less a shift from one administration to the next than a continuation.” Considered a solid part of the Democratic coalition throughout much of the 21st century, Muslim and Arab American voters seem to be without a clear political home in the aftermath of the 2024 race. Polling from the Arab American Institute and the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) showed a clear drop in support among members of these communities for Harris during her presidential bid, considerably lower than had been for other recent Democratic tickets. While Harris softened some of Biden’s stances on the war and expressed more solidarity for the plight of Palestinians, she avoided promises to place conditions on aid to Israel, a top demand for her detractors.

Tlaib decries ‘fanatical bulls—‘ from Trump on Gaza takeover - Progressive Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) spurned President Trump’s recent suggestion that the U.S. take over the war-ravaged Gaza Strip, calling the idea “fanatical bulls—.”Tlaib, the only Palestinian American serving in Congress, also pressed her colleagues to speak up for a two-state solution in the region.“Palestinians aren’t going anywhere,” Tlaib wrote late Tuesday in a post on social platform X. “This president can only spew this fanatical bulls— because of bipartisan support in Congress for funding genocide and ethnic cleansing. “It’s time for my two-state solution colleagues to speak up.”During a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was visiting Washington, Trump expressed the idea of the U.S. acquiring Gaza, clearing it from unexploded bombs and being involved in the region’s “economic development.”The president said he could see Palestinians living there but seemed to characterize the Strip as an international destination where “the world’s people” will be able to reach the Mediterranean coastline. “I think you’ll make that into an international, unbelievable place… I don’t want to be cute, I don’t want to be a wise guy, but the Riviera of the Middle East… this could be so magnificent,” he said Tuesday.When he was asked about sending U.S. troops to Gaza, he told reporters that the military would “do what is necessary.” “If it’s necessary, we’ll do that,” he said.In another post, Tlaib accused Trump of “openly calling for ethnic cleansing” of Palestinians. “This president is openly calling for ethnic cleansing while sitting next to a genocidal war criminal. He’s perfectly fine cutting off working Americans from federal funds while the funding to the Israeli government continues flowing,” Tlaib wrote.

As The Gaza Agenda Moves Forward, The Imperial Narrative Shifts With It --Caitlin Johnstone-- White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt acted shocked and appalled by questions from reporters about Trump’s ethnic cleansing plan for Gaza on Wednesday, saying it was “evil” to suggest that these poor victims of Israel’s destruction should be allowed to stay somewhere that’s been completely demolished.“Again, it’s a demolition site right now,” Leavitt said. “It’s not a livable place for any human being. And I think it’s actually quite evil to suggest that people should live in such dire conditions.”Of course the question of whether or not it was evil for the US and Israel to deliberately create those conditions in the first place is never raised by the obedient press gaggle.It’s been truly remarkable watching the official imperial narrative pivot from (A) claiming it’s outrageous to suggest Israel was waging a genocidal campaign of annihilation on Gaza, to (B) saying obviously everyone in Gaza needs to leave because the entire place has been annihilated and how dare you suggest otherwise.This comes as Donald Trump himself proclaims on Truth Social that under his plan the Gaza Strip “would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting.” Such a land transfer would require Israel to forcibly seize all of Gaza in order to cede the territory to the US. If Gaza becomes as a US territory it would of course no longer exist as a Palestinian territory, and would have already been purged of all Palestinians.And it’s just so surreal how the narrative is changing now that the agenda has moved from destroying Gaza to ethnically cleansing it. It’s requiring some real Orwellian doublethink revisionism.

• Israel apologists in 2023–2024: The IDF is the world’s most moral army! It’s a war of defense! They’re taking extraordinary measures to protect civilian lives!
• Israel apologists in 2025: Well obviously Gaza’s an uninhabitable wasteland that’s been carpet bombed to oblivion, duh.
• Israel apologists in 2023–2024: Israel would never deliberately target civilian infrastructure!
• Israel apologists in 2025: We need to move the entire population of Gaza to Egypt and Jordan because all of Gaza’s civilian infrastructure has been completely destroyed.
• Israel apologists in 2023–2024: How dare you suggest that Israel is deliberately destroying healthcare facilities, you blood libeling antisemite!
• Israel apologists in 2025: You can’t expect people to keep living in Gaza! Don’t you know there’s no healthcare there?
• Israel apologists in 2023–2024: Israel is only targeting Hamas! The only locations with civilians in them that have been bombed are the ones where they’re being used as human shields!
• Israel apologists in 2025: These poor Gazans need to be evacuated immediately! The entire strip is a demolition site with hardly any buildings left standing!
• Israel apologists in 2023–2024: Israel is taking the utmost care with its airstrikes to only target terrorists with the most pinpoint precision.
• Israel apologists in 2025: Gaza’s not safe for civilians, the whole place is covered with thousands upon thousands of undetonated ordinances!
• Israel apologists in 2023–2024: This will all be over as soon as Hamas releases the hostages.
• Israel apologists in 2025: Now that we’ve got our hostages back it’s time to end the existence of Gaza as a Palestinian territory and fill it with Jewish settlements.
• Israel apologists in 2023–2024: Blame Hamas! Hamas caused this with their unprovoked attack on October 7!
• Israel apologists in 2025: The only possible solution to all the death and devastation that’s been inflicted on Gaza is to advance an ethnic cleansing agenda that we’ve been chasing for generations.

Whoever controls the narrative controls the world. When the needs of the empire change, so do the narratives.

Only 3% Of Jewish Israelis Think Trump's Ethnic Cleansing Plan For Gaza Is Immoral -Caitlin Johnstone-- A poll by the Jewish People Policy Institute has found that “more than eight out of ten Jewish Israelis support the plan” proposed by President Donald Trump to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip of Palestinians by resettling them in Egypt and Jordan. The poll also found that among the minority of Israelis who did not support Trump’s plan, only 13 percent opposed it because they viewed it as immoral. Among Jewish Israelis specifically, the number who oppose the ethnic cleansing of Gaza for moral reasons is just three percent.Three percent. If that isn’t a sign of a morally diseased society, I don’t know what would be.

Report: Jared Kushner Behind Trump’s Call for the US To ‘Take Over’ Gaza -- The online news site Puck has reported that Jared Kushner was involved in crafting President Trump’s plan for the US to “take over” Gaza, which involves the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population. Citing Puck, The Times of Israel reported that Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, helped prepare the shock remarks the president made on Tuesday night during his press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.Kushner, who has a long history of friendship with Netanyahu, served as an advisor to President Trump during his first term in office and was involved in negotiating the Abraham Accords, the deals that sought Israel’s regional integration without settling the issue of the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory. Kushner, who has no official position in the current White House, remarked last year that Gaza’s waterfront property could be “very valuable” and said Palestinians should be removed from the territory, at least temporarily. “Gaza’s waterfront property — it could be very valuable, if people would focus on building up livelihoods,” Kushner said. “It’s a little bit of an unfortunate situation there, but I think from Israel’s perspective, I would do my best to move the people out and then clean it up … But I don’t think that Israel has stated that they don’t want the people to move back there afterward,” Kushner added.

Trump Says Israel Will Hand Gaza to US at the ‘Conclusion of Fighting’ - President Trump on Thursday continued to push his idea of a US takeover of Gaza, claiming Israel would hand over the territory to the US at the “conclusion of fighting” and insisting the occupation wouldn’t require US troops.“The Gaza Strip would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting,” the president wrote on Truth Social. The president’s comments suggest he expects Israel’s genocidal war to restart, which would be supported with US military aid.After 15 months of heavy bombing and a ground campaign in Gaza, Israel failed to dismantle Hamas, and US intelligence believes the Palestinian group had even replaced most of the fighters it had lost in that time. That means even though Gaza has been reduced to rubble, Israel would still face stiff resistance if it attempts to conquer and ethnically cleanse the Strip.In his post, Trump also called for the “resettlement” of Palestinians in Gaza and referred to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) as a “Palestinian,” something he first did while on the campaign trail over Schumer’s calls for elections in Israel.“The Palestinians, people like Chuck Schumer, would have already been resettled in far safer and more beautiful communities, with new and modern homes, in the region. They would actually have a chance to be happy, safe, and free,” the president wrote.“The US, working with great development teams from all over the World, would slowly and carefully begin the construction of what would become one of the greatest and most spectacular developments of its kind on Earth. No soldiers by the US would be needed! Stability for the region would reign!!!”Trump’s proposal has been resoundingly rejected by the Arab states in the region and the Palestinians themselves, who don’t want to give up their homes even as they lie in ruin.

US Diplomats Warn Trump That Sending Gazans To Egypt Will Destabilize Sisi Regime - Egypt will not be swayed to take in Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, US officials in the region have told the White House in recent days as they brace for the Trump administration to ramp up pressure on Cairo, Middle East Eye can reveal. Trump has also said that Jordan will take in Palestinians ahead of King Abdullah II’s visit to Washington next week. The growing divide between diplomats and the White House has heightened tensions, pitting President Donald Trump and his closest advisers against career diplomats in the region, who are ferrying messages to Arab officials. In the case of Egypt, US officials warned the White House that the controversial proposal could destabilize a close ally and that Egypt would not be susceptible to financial incentives, a senior US diplomat in the region told MEE. The notion that Palestinians can be moved to Egypt, Jordan or any third country is widely regarded as ethnic cleansing of the besieged enclave and would likely violate international law. Another mid-level US diplomat in the region working on this issue told MEE that the White House appeared “tone deaf” to the assessments of US diplomats and remained intent on pursuing the plan to send Palestinians to Egypt. Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio raised the topic in a phone call with his Egyptian counterpart, Badr Abdelatty, one of the officials told MEE. Both US officials say they expect the rift between US embassies in the region and the White House to widen following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump on Tuesday.

Arab states policing Gaza as Trump and Netanyahu plan ethnic cleansing of Palestinians-- US President Donald Trump has made clear that his plan to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip assumes the direct collusion of the Arab regimes. When Trump first issued an open call for Israel to “clean” Gaza of its Palestinian inhabitants, in a textbook definition of ethnic cleansing, he told reporters on Air Force One, “You’re talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out” the Gaza Strip, which he described as a “demolition site”. He then called for the Palestinians to be resettled in Jordan and Egypt, adding, “I wish [Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi] would take some. We helped them a lot, and I’m sure he’d help us. He’s a friend of mine. He’s in … a rough neighbourhood. But I think he would do it, and I think the king of Jordan would do it too.” He later made the not too subtle observation that both countries received significant aid from the US. Trump’s call was met with pro-forma and polite rejection from both al-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah. Likewise his subsequent proposal, made at the White House Tuesday alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of a direct US takeover of Gaza was rejected by all the Arab regimes, who, along with all the major imperialist powers, reiterated their commitment to a Palestinian return to their homeland and an eventual “two states solution.” But however politically difficult this might be for the bourgeoisie in the Middle East, and it certainly is, Trump has reasons to anticipate some form of deal being reached on ethnic cleansing, even if this doesn’t involve a US real estate deal. Over the last 16 months, the Arab states have given their backing for Israel’s genocidal assault and deepened their collusion with the Netanyahu government in policing the Palestinians and suppressing domestic opposition. Their alternative to the forcible displacement of the Palestinians from Gaza desired by Trump and Netanyahu is not a mythical “two states solution”, but their agreeing to act as prison guards for Palestinians trapped in a ruined enclave—without homes, water, electricity, health care and any of the fundamentals of existence. And if this proves unacceptable to the White House, then collusion in some variant of ethnic cleansing is not excluded. Trump’s statements confirm that the fascist government of Netanyahu utilised the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023 to launch a pre-planned campaign of mass murder with the aim of the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, beginning with Gaza and then moving on to the West Bank and including Israel’s two million Arab citizens.

State Dept. Plans New $7 Billion Arms Sale to Israel = The State Department has formally notified Congress of its plans for a massive arms sale to Israel worth over $7 billion, including thousands of missiles and bombs, the Associated Press reported on Friday. This follows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington DC this week and Donald Trump’s announcement that the US will “own” Gaza after it is ethnically cleansed of its indigenous Palestinian population.Per the State Department, Congress was notified of two separate sales, one is worth $6.75 billion. This first sale includes 2,800 500-pound bombs and 166 small-diameter bombs, along with thousands of guidance kits, fuses, bomb components, and other equipment. Deliveries of these bombs would begin later this year. The other package, worth $660 million, includes 3,000 Hellfire missiles and related equipment. Deliveries for this second arms sale are expected to take place by 2028. According to the AP, the use of these missiles will require the IDF to receive supplemental training by the US military.Officials from the Joe Biden administration informally made Congress aware of the sale last month, at the time they said some of the weapons could be sent from current Pentagon stockpiles but most of the arms would take at least a year, or more likely several years, to deliver.This comes as a fragile ceasefire in Gaza is still holding, despite the IDFkilling dozens of Palestinians in Gaza since it was implemented and amidhostage exchanges on both sides. Israeli officials indicate that the increased military aid and arms sales are meant to compel Netanyahu to see the ceasefire deal through to its second and third phases, following the current 42-day truce. Last month, Trump released a shipment of 2,000-pound bombs that the previous administration had paused over a dispute regarding the Israeli invasion of Rafah last year.Earlier this week, Trump asked leaders in Congress to approve another $1 billion arms transfer, financed with US military aid, that includes 4,700 1,000-pound bombs worth over $700 million and $300 million worth of armored bulldozers. The bulldozers are infamously used to carry outviolent assaults and home demolitions in the occupied West Bank.The news of the additional arms sales comes as Trump is talking up his plan for Gaza to be ethnically cleansed before the US takes over the Strip and begins a huge real estate development project there. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the IDF to prepare for the “voluntary departure” of the Palestinians from Gaza in accordance with Trump’s plan. He said the Palestinians should be sent to Western countries likeIreland, Norway, and Spain which have recognized the state of Palestine and been highly critical of Tel Aviv’s genocidal onslaught.

President Trump Signs Order To Reinstate 'Maximum Pressure' on Iran - On Tuesday, President Biden signed an executive order to reinstate a policy of “maximum pressure” against Iran. “Maximum pressure” refers to the Iran policy of the previous Trump administration, which involved withdrawing from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, imposing crippling sanctions on the Islamic Republic, and assassinating Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani. President Biden essentially continued the Trump administration’s policy and imposed additional sanctions on Iran. But over the years, Iran found oil markets in Asia that were not afraid of US sanctions. According to Fox News, when Trump signed the order, he said he was “unhappy to do it” and that he hoped “we’re not going to have to use it very much,” signaling he may pursue a deal with Tehran. Recent media reports said Trump was expected to assign his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to pursue diplomacy with Iran. Speaking with reporters alongside Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Tuesday, Trump signaled that he was not interested in striking Iran or backing an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities. He was asked by a reporter if now was a good time to hit Iran because it was “weak” and said, “They’re very strong right now, and we’re not going to let them get a nuclear weapon.” Despite all the hype around Iran’s nuclear weapons program, there’s no evidence that Iran is seeking a bomb. Iran is still a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, unlike Israel, which has a covert nuclear stockpile that the US doesn’t officially recognize.

US slaps sanctions on network shipping Iranian oil to China (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Thursday it is imposing new sanctions on a few individuals and tankers helping to ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China, in an incremental move to boost pressure on Tehran. They were the first U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil after U.S. President Donald Trump this week vowed to bring Iran's crude exports to zero as the U.S. tries to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Treasury said the oil was shipped on behalf of Iran's Armed Forces General Staff and its front company Sepehr Energy, which the U.S. designated in late 2023. The sanctions target individuals and companies in countries including China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, the department said. Treasury said it imposed blocking sanctions on the Panama-flagged CH Billion tanker and the Hong Kong-flagged Star Forest tanker for their role in shipping Iranian oil to China. The U.S. said the tankers "onboarded" Iranian crude from storage in China as part of a scheme involving Iran's military, which stands to profit from the sale of the oil. The sanctions block access of the individuals and entities to any of their assets in the United States and prohibit U.S. foreign assistance. "We will use all tools at our disposal to hold the regime accountable for its destabilizing activities and pursuit of nuclear weapons that threaten the civilized world," Tammy Bruce, a State Department spokesperson, said about the sanctions. Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian this week urged OPEC members to unite against possible U.S. sanctions. Jeremy Paner, a sanctions lawyer, said the move was a "tactic, not a strategy" in Trump's desire to greatly reduce oil exports since it did not go after banks in China that allow energy transactions. Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard, said it was similar to a series of sanctions imposed over the last two years by former President Joe Biden. The sanctions designated Iranian national Arash Lavian, who the U.S. said helped support Sepehr. The U.S. also designated Marshal Ship Management Private Limited. In addition, Young Folks International Trading Co and Limited and Lucky Ocean Shipping Limited were designated for operating in Iran’s petroleum sector. "These kinds of sanctions can be effective, but it's not going to drive the exports down to zero," said Paner, a former lead sanctions investigator at Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control. Fernando Ferreira, the head of geopolitical risk at Rapidan Energy Group, said the sanctions were "an opening shot against China and Iran, designed to put Beijing on notice without disrupting backchannel discussions to explore the potential for a nuclear deal."

Trump warns he left instructions to ‘obliterate’ Iran if he is assassinated -- President Trump on Tuesday said that he has left instructions that if Iran were to assassination him, the country should be destroyed. The president made the remark after signing an executive order in the Oval Office that reiterates applying maximum pressure on Tehran by giving him all the possible tools to engage with its government, calling the action “very tough on Iran.” “I’m going to sign it but hopefully we are not going to have to use it very much,” Trump said, adding that he wants to see about working out a deal with Iran so everybody “can live together.” When questioned about Iran and proxies threatening to assassinate him, Trump said the U.S. adversary would be destroyed if that were to happen. “They haven’t done that and that would be a terrible thing for them to do. Not because of me— if they did that, they would be obliterated. That would be the end. I’ve left instructions, if they do it, they get obliterated, there won’t be anything left. And, they shouldn’t be able to do it,” the president said. The Justice Department in November revealed an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump during his campaignfor the White House this fall. An unsealed criminal complaint revealed that Farhad Shakeri, 51, who is charged with murder-for-hire, allegedly told FBI agents an Iranian official tasked him with focusing on assassinating Trump. Trump on Tuesday blamed former President Biden for not threatening Iran with obliteration in the event of an assassination when Biden was in the White House. “Biden should have said that but he never did, I don’t know why. Lack of intelligence perhaps but he never said it. If that happens to a leader or close to a leader— frankly, if you had other people involved also—you would call for total obliteration of a state that did it. That would include Iran,” Trump said.

Pentagon Drafting Plans To Pull All US Troops From Syria, Fulfilling Longtime Trump Pledge -Is President Trump going to finally fulfill his long-stated pledge to bring the troops home from Syria? The reporting consensus is that he actually tried to during his first administration, but it received massive pushback from US defense and intelligence officials at the time, amid an outcry from the hawkish deep state Washington blob. But is it for real this time? NBC reports the following on Wednesday amid a new realignment of Mideast priorities in the wake of Bashar al-Assad's December 8 ouster, and now that the Islamist faction HTS is ruling from Damascus... "The Defense Department is developing plans to withdraw all U.S. troops from Syria, two U.S. defense officials told NBC News on Tuesday." The NBC report adds, "President Donald Trump and officials close to him recently expressed interest in pulling U.S. troops out of Syria, the officials said, leading Pentagon officials to begin drawing up plans for a full withdrawal in 30, 60 or 90 days." For years the Pentagon claimed that just 1,000 US troops were occupying the oil and gas region of Syria's northeast region, in support of Syrian Kurdish groups. Special forces have long been advising and assisting the so-called Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). More recently, the Pentagon has confirmed at least 2,000 are actually there. Likely there are many more contractors and intelligence operatives as well. "Trump’s new national security adviser, Mike Waltz, spent Friday at the headquarters of U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Florida, meeting with senior U.S. military leaders and getting briefings on the Middle East, according to U.S. defense officials," NBC continues. A Syria pullout has been a long time in coming. But the Pentagon has repeatedly touted the troop presence as part of a key 'anti-ISIS' mission - though it's been clear to all that it was really about 'thwarting Iran' while keeping pressure on Damascus and the prior Assad government. Regional reports have documented that Syrian oil was ferried across the border into Iraq, after during Trump's first presidency he declared that American forces were "securing the oil". Syria produced enough oil and gas to supply its own domestic needs, and does never had enough to be an oil exporting power. Thus from the start the occupation of the major oil fields was more about crippling the Syrian economy alongside Washington sanctions, a resource grab which has hit the Syrian population hard. Even now, Damascus has about an hour of electricity per day, and many households are making due with the help of solar panels.

Trump says he’s ending Biden’s classified intelligence briefings in payback move - (AP) — President Donald Trump said Friday that he’s revoking former President Joe Biden’s access to government secrets and ending the daily intelligence briefings he’s receiving in payback for Biden doing the same to him in 2021.Trump announced his decision in a post on his social media platform shortly after he arrived at his Mar-a-Lago home and private club in Palm Beach for the weekend.“There is no need for Joe Biden to continue receiving access to classified information. Therefore, we are immediately revoking Joe Biden’s Security Clearances, and stopping his daily Intelligence Briefings,” Trump wrote. “He set this precedent in 2021, when he instructed the Intelligence Community (IC) to stop the 45th President of the United States (ME!) from accessing details on National Security, a courtesy provided to former Presidents.” The move is the latest in a vengeance tour of Washington that Trump promised during his campaign. He has previously revoked security clearances from more than four dozen former intelligence officials who signed a 2020 letter saying that the Hunter Biden laptop saga bore the hallmarks of a “Russian information operation.” He’s also revoked security details assigned to protect former government officials who have criticized him, including his own former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, who faces threats from Iran, and former infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci.

Report: US Weapons Shipments To Ukraine Resume After Brief Pause - US weapons shipments to Ukraine were briefly paused by the Trump administration but resumed over the weekend, Reuters reported on Monday, citing people briefed on the matter. It was unclear if the Trump administration’s pause on foreign aid included weapons shipments to Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that US military aid wasn’t impacted, but the Reuters report said there was a hold on all assistance for Ukraine, which has been rescinded by the White House. So far, the Trump administration has not approved any new weapons packages for Ukraine, but President Biden Signed off on billions in arms shipments to fuel the proxy war during his final months in power. All of the shipments approved by Biden will take years to deliver since much is under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a program that allows the Pentagon to purchase weapons for Ukraine, which involves a contracting period and potentially the manufacturing of the arms.The other shipments Biden signed off on is in the form of the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which authorizes the president to ship weapons directly from US military stockpiles.According to the Reuters report, there are factions of the Trump administration at odds over how much support the US should continue to give Ukraine. The administration has said its official policy is to end the war, but it remains unclear how that will happen.

Trump wants rare earth elements from Ukraine in exchange for military aid — President Trump indicated Monday he wants a deal for rare earth elements and other items from Ukraine in exchange for continued military aid in the nation’s war against Russia. “We’re handing them money hand over fist. We’re giving them equipment,” Trump said Monday. “We’re looking to do a deal with Ukraine, where they’re going to secure what we’re giving them with their rare earth and other things,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “I want to have security of rare earth,” he added, appearing to refer to rare earth elements, which refers to a specific group of materials that are only deposited in relatively small quantities and can be used in a variety of applications including electronics, health care and batteries. It’s not clear whether Trump’s desired deal would refer only to the elements that are considered rare earths, or if he is also interested in minerals like lithium and titanium, of which Ukraine has a significant supply. In Ukraine’s existing “Victory Plan,” the country said it would work to supply its strategic partners with “natural resources and critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars” including uranium, titanium, lithium and graphite. Ukraine may not be the only foreign supplier in Trump’s sights. Mike Waltz, who Trump has tapped as national security adviser, has said that Trump’s quest for Greenland is about minerals and other natural resources.

US Wants Ukraine To Hold Elections Following Ceasefire - President Trump’s envoy to the Ukraine war, Keith Kellogg, has said the US will push for elections in Ukraine following any ceasefire deal with Russia.“Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so,” Kellogg told Reuters. “I think it is good for democracy. That’s the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running.”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s term in office expired in May 2024, but he remained in power since he didn’t hold elections. Ukraine’s parliament has also been due for an election since October 2023.Ukrainian officials have justified not holding an election by pointing to Ukraine’s constitution, which prohibits elections during martial law. Martial law was first declared when Russia invaded and has been extended since.However, Zelensky made it clear at one point that he could hold a vote if he wanted to, suggesting that it could happen if the US and other Western countries paid for it. But, the Biden administration did not put any pressure on Zelensky to hold an election and helped justify the decision.Trump reportedly gave Kellogg 100 days to reach a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, but it’s unclear when a ceasefire might happen. The Reuters report suggested that one possibility was reaching a truce and then holding elections, so whoever wins would be the one negotiating a lasting deal with Russia.

US Bombers Join Philippine Jets in Flight Near Chinese-Controlled Shoal - Two US Air Force B-1 bombers joined Philippine fighter jets in a flight over the South China Sea on Tuesday near the Scarborough Shoal, a disputed reef that’s controlled by China.A spokesman for the Philippine Armed Forces said the provocative flight was the first joint air exercise between the two militaries under the Trump administration.“The exercises focused on enhancing operational coordination, improving air domain awareness and reinforcing agile combat employment capabilities between the two air forces,” the Philippine Air Force said.The Scarborough Shoal is a major flashpoint in the maritime dispute between China and the Philippines. The Philippine military has previouslyaccused Chinese jets of firing flares at its aircraft near the disputed reef.The South China Sea, in general, has become a potential flashpoint between the US and China. Since the previous Trump administration, it has been the policy of the US that the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty covers attacks on Philippine boats in the South China Sea. That means the US has committed to going to war with China if the maritime dispute between Manila and Beijing turns hot.On January 22, Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with his Philippine counterpart, Enrique A. Manalo, and assured of the US’s “iron clad” commitment. Rubio and other members of the new Trump administration are staunch China hawks and are expected to continue the policies of the Biden administration in the region, which included building up military bases and expanding alliances.

Rubio conducts gunboat diplomacy in Panama as Trump reiterates threats to seize Canal - US Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Panama, the small Latin American country, on Sunday to press demands for US domination of the Panama Canal, backed by Trump’s threat to illegally attack Panama and reconquer the waterway. Bowing to the threats of the world’s largest military power, the Panama Canal’s transit authority said late Sunday it will “optimize transit priority” of US Navy ships, while Bloomberg reported that Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino “assured Rubio that US Navy vessels would enjoy free passage.” Mulino also announced Sunday that Panama would not renew its participation in China’s Belt and Road infrastructure initiative, becoming the first country in Latin America to do so. He also raised the prospect of reneging on its current agreements with China over the Belt and Road initiative, which last through 2026. Rubio gloated over the announcement, writing in an X post Monday, “Yesterday’s announcement by President Jose Raul Mulino that Panama will allow its participation in the [Chinese Communist Party’s] Belt and Road Initiative to expire is a great step forward for US-Panama relations.” The Panama Canal is the world’s second busiest shipping route. Originally constructed by the United States in the early 20th century, control was transferred to Panama in 1999 under the terms of a 1977 treaty. During his January 20 presidential inauguration, Trump threatened, “We gave [the Canal] to Panama, and we’re taking it back.” Just days later, Trump confirmed that he was threatening to use “military coercion” to annex Panama, as well as Greenland, the Arctic territory controlled by Denmark. Trump blustered, “We need them for economic security.” Trump doubled down on his threats to illegally annex the Panama Canal Sunday, ahead of Rubio’s departure. “China’s running the Panama Canal. That was not given to China, that was given to Panama, foolishly, but they violated the agreement and we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen,” Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington. His threats against Panama are part of his efforts to consolidate control over the Americas and their key waterways as part of a military buildup for war with China. Commenting on Rubio’s trip, the Wall Street Journal noted, “Most of Rubio’s predecessors in recent decades have visited London or other major US allies on their maiden overseas trips. The choice of Panama as his first stop reflected the extent to which Trump has scrambled American diplomatic priorities and refocused US attention on the Western Hemisphere.” In its readout of the meeting between Rubio and Mulino, the State Department wrote, “President Trump has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal. Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty.”

After Meeting With Rubio, Panama's President Says 'No Real Threat' From US To Seize Canal - Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Panama on Sunday on his first foreign trip since being sworn in and met with President José Raúl Mulino to discuss the Panama Canal.President Trump had been threatening to “take back” the Panama Canal, but Mulino said after meeting with Rubio that he did not see a serious threat of US military action despite some strong comments.“I don’t feel that there is any real threat at this time against the treaty, its validity, or much less of the use of military force to seize the canal,” Mulino told reporters after the meeting.Trump has set his sights on the Panama Canal over claims that it’s controlled by China, an accusation that lacks evidence and that Panamanian officials have strongly denied.The US claim appears to be based on the fact that two ports on either side of the canal are operated by CK Hutchinson, a company based in Hong Kong. Other nearby ports are run by companies based in the US, Taiwan, and Singapore. Panamanian officials suspect Trump’s real motive is to reduce Chinese investments in Panama to make opportunities for US companies and potentially negotiate cheaper transit fees for US ships. According to the State Department, Rubio warned the US would take action if Panama didn’t reduce “Chinese influence” in the canal.“Secretary Rubio informed President Mulino and Minister Martínez-Acha that President Trump has made a preliminary determination that the current position of influence and control of the Chinese Communist Party over the Panama Canal area is a threat to the canal and represents a violation of the Treaty Concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal,” the State Department said in a readout of the meeting.“Secretary Rubio made clear that this status quo is unacceptable and that absent immediate changes, it would require the United States to take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Treaty,” the statement added. According to The Associated Press, Mulino did say that Panama wouldn’t renew its agreement with China on Beijing’s global infrastructure project, known as the Belt and Road Initiative. Panama joined the BRI in 2017 after it severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan and opened up with Beijing under President Juan Carlos Varela.

Hegseth vows to surge manpower, resources to US southern border - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday met with troops at the U.S. border with Mexico, where he pledged “100 percent operational control” of the area. Hegseth, who traveled with White House border czar Tom Homan in his first trip since taking office, first stopped at Fort Bliss in El Paso, Texas, to meet with troops tasked with fortifying the southern border — a priority for the Pentagon under President Trump. While there, Hegseth was briefed by U.S. Northern Command and North American Aerospace Defense Command leaders on homeland defense and security priorities at the border, according to an update on the trip posted to X. Speaking to reporters while on the ground, Hegseth pledged “100 percent operational control of the border,” with the surging of manpower and assets to the area. “Any assets necessary at the Defense Department to support the expulsion and detention of those in the country illegally are on the table,” he said. Since beginning his second term, Trump has declared a national emergency at the southern border and signed a slew of executive ordersintended to crack down on immigration. As part of the effort, he has turned to the military to beef up security at the border, fly migrants out of the United States and house them at bases. Trump has already ordered 1,500 active-duty troops to the border to survey the area and assist law enforcement with logistics and fencing, and Hegseth over the weekend approved another 500 to be sent. The additional troops, who will begin to make their way there this week, join the 2,500 service members who were already at the border prior to the new Trump administration, bringing the total force number to 4,500. Hegseth said that the thousands of extra troops will help free up overwhelmed Customs and Border Protection agents who are there to fight an “invasion.” Read the full report at TheHill.com.

First Spy Plane, Now US Navy's Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carrier Spotted Off Mexico's Coast -Days after a US Air Force RC-135V/W Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft carried out a signals intelligence (SIGINT) operation over cartel-controlled areas in Baja California, the US Navy's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, the USS Nimitz (CVN 68), was spotted off Mexico's northern coast on Wednesday afternoon. According to Bloomberg ship tracking data, the USS Nimitz is transiting international waters off the coast of Punta Colonet, located in the northern section of Baja California. The vessel is currently underway at a speed of 8.8 knots. The USS Nimitz has no scheduled port calls, and it remains unclear whether the vessel is involved in the Trump administration's efforts to combat drug cartels (now labeled "foreign terrorists") or if it will transit the Panama Canal for deployment elsewhere.

U.S. military plane carrying about 100 undocumented immigrants lands in India - A U.S. military aircraft carrying scores of undocumented Indian nationals landed in northern India on Wednesday morning, according to a Reuters video. An estimated 100 undocumented immigrants were onboard, a defense official with direct knowledge of the situation told NBC News.The flight is among the latest deportation operations that involve the use of military planes. It comes after President Donald Trump signed an executive order last month, giving the military a role in immigration enforcement and border security. The Embassy of India did not share details on the deportation, but it referred NBC News to comments made last week by Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, during a media briefing. Jaiswal said that the country is “firmly opposed” to illegal migration and will be cooperating with efforts to stem the flow. “I do want to emphasize that cooperation between India and the U.S. is strong and effective in this domain,” Jaiswal said. The plane, a C-17 aircraft most commonly used to transport supplies and troops, left earlier this week and landed in the city of Amritsar, in the state of Punjab.Kuldeep Singh Dhaliwal, a cabinet minister in Punjab who spoke to reporters at the airport, said he had met with a few young Indian nationals who had been repatriated. Despite being tired after the long journey back, they appeared healthy, he told the media. Dhaliwal also called on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is slated to visit the U.S. next week, to work with Trump to better support those who are facing deportation. “There is a sword of deportation or jail hanging on the heads of Indians who moved there,” Dhaliwal said, according to The Times of India. “PM Modi, who supported Donald Trump during his election campaign, should now use his friendship to resolve the issue. What is the usefulness of this friendship if it cannot help Indian citizens in need,” he said. Trump told reporters last week that he had a “productive” call with Modi and that India will “do what’s right” in regard to repatriating undocumented Indian immigrants. The flight comes after then-acting Secretary of Defense Robert Salesses said in a statement last month that the Defense Department would provide military airlift to support deportation flights for more than 5,000 undocumented immigrants. Since then, several military flights have departed U.S. soil, though some have encountered issues upon landing. Mexico blocked a U.S. military flight carrying undocumented immigrants in late January. Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro also initially refused to accept two military flights headed for the country. But days later, Colombia agreed to Trump’s terms, the White House said, after the president threatened to impose sweeping retaliatory measures against the country, including tariffs and visa sanctions.

Opposition lawmakers protest alleged mistreatment of Indian deportees by US (AP) — India’s Parliament was disrupted on Thursday as opposition lawmakers protested the alleged mistreatment of 104 Indian immigrants deported by the United States. A U.S. military plane on Wednesday carrying 104 deported Indian migrants arrived in a northern Indian city, the first such flight to the country as part of a crackdown ordered by the Trump administration. The lawmakers and media reports said the deportees’ arms and legs were shackled while on the aircraft. Parliament’s proceedings were adjourned Thursday as the lawmakers chanted slogans and called to discuss the deportation. Renuka Chowdhury, a lawmaker in the Congress party, said the deportees were “handcuffed, had their legs chained and even struggled to use the washroom.” Her colleague, Gaurav Gogoi, called it “degrading.” Parliament speaker Om Birla tried to calm the lawmakers, saying the transportation of the deportees was a matter of U.S. foreign policy. “The foreign country also has its own rules and regulations,” he said. The Press Trust of India news agency quoted one of the deportees, Jaspal Singh, saying deportees’ handcuffs and leg chains were taken off only at the Amritsar airport in India. Singh, 36, said they initially thought they were being taken to another camp in the U.S. “Then a police officer told us that we were being taken to India,” he said. The U.S. government usually carries out deportations on commercial and chartered flights. The use of the U.S. military to return people to their home country is a relatively new method that started under the Trump administration. Opposition lawmakers, including Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, also protested outside the Parliament building as they demanded a response from the government. Some wore handcuffs and carried placards that read: “Humans, not prisoners.” The deportation came ahead of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, which is expected next week. U.S. President Donald Trump and Modi discussed immigration in a phone call last week and Trump stressed the importance of India buying more American-made security equipment and fair bilateral trade. A spokesman at the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi said enforcing immigration laws was critical for the country’s national security and public safety. “It is the policy of the United States to faithfully execute the immigration laws against all inadmissible and removable aliens,” he said. India has cooperated with the U.S. and said it is ready to accept the deported Indians after verification. New Delhi says it is against illegal immigration, mainly because it is linked to several forms of organized crime, and it has not objected to the U.S. deporting its citizens. India’s junior External Affairs Minister Kirti Vardhan Singh recently told India’s Parliament that 519 Indian nationals were deported to India between November 2023 and October 2024, citing U.S. government data.

-White House begins migrant flights to Guantánamo Bay -- The Trump administration on Tuesday began flying immigrants who entered the country illegally to Guantánamo Bay amid plans to use the facility in Cuba to detain thousands of migrants. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the first flights from the U.S. to Guantánamo Bay carrying migrant lacking permanent legal status were underway. “President Trump is not messing around, and he’s no longer going to allow America to be a dumping ground for illegal criminals from nations all over this world,” Leavitt said on Fox Business Network. Trump last week signed a memo directing the Department of Defense and Department of Homeland Security to prepare a 30,000-person migrant at Guantánamo Bay, a facility in Cuba that has been used to house military prisoners, including several involved in the 9/11 attacks. Guantánamo Bay is best known as a military base where terror suspects are held. It became infamous for accusations of torture and abuse as the U.S. carried out the war on terrorism. The Biden administration sought to wind down operations at the facility. There are 15 detainees still there. “Due process will be followed, and having facilities at Guantánamo Bay will be an asset to us,” Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Sunday on “Meet the Press.” Noem would not say whether women and children would be kept at Guantánamo Bay. The Trump administration has aggressively moved to remove individuals who entered the U.S. illegally, setting up agreements with Colombia, Venezuela and El Salvador for those countries to accept deported immigrants.

Migrants at Guantanamo could result in legal challenges, experts say - The Trump administration's plan to detain some of the most dangerous illegal immigrants arrested in the United States in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, could raise legal concerns and challenges, which could slow efforts to deport them to their home countries, experts say. President Donald Trump has instructed the Pentagon to prepare the facility to house up to 30,000 "criminal illegal aliens" at the U.S. military base. Flights to the facility began this week. Around 150 Marines are at the Naval Station and have set up tents for around 1,000 migrants in the other part of the installation. But those facilities with latrines and showers are not yet ready for an onslaught of 30,000 migrants as promised by Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.Among the uncertainties of the plan, what's inevitable is that those detained will most likely file petitions for a writ of habeas corpus, which asks a judge to review the legality of the prisoner's detention, said Eugene Fidell, a visiting lecturer at Yale Law School who teaches a course on military law and Guantanamo Bay. "Nothing has changed in terms of that basic guideline, which means that the writ of habeas corpus, which is protected by the U.S. Constitution in so many words, applies there," Fidell told Fox News. "And what that means is that the people who are being taken to Guantanamo as part of the administration's current effort are going to have access to the United States District Court." The first 10 criminal migrants who arrived this week will be held under U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) control in a separate wing of the detention facility where the 15 remaining 9/11 military combatants, including Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the principal architect of the 9/11 terror attack, are housed. The arrival of illegal immigrants to Guantanano will almost certainly result in legal challenges, wrote John B. Bellinger III, adjunct senior fellow for international and national security law at the Council on Foreign Relations."Unauthorized immigrants transferred (or threatened with potential transfer) from the United States to Guantánamo will file a vast array of legal challenges, providing a lot of business for the courts," he wrote in an article published Tuesday. "Haitian and Cuban refugees previously held on Guantánamo—as well as many of the terrorism suspects—filed numerous suits challenging the detention and conditions, several of which were ultimately heard by the Supreme Court."

Restaurants in multiple cities closing for one day to mark ‘day without immigrants’ -Restaurants in multiple cities are closing for one day to mark a “day without immigrants.”“Tomorrow (Mon 2/3) we’ll be CLOSED in solidarity with the Day Without Immigrants protest. DC depends deeply on immigrants, who work vital jobs in our local economy, pay taxes & make the city a vibrant place to live,” a post on Instagram by Washington, D.C., restaurant Republic Cantina reads.“We’ve been dismayed to see the rollout of policies that tear immigrants from their homes — which is both inhumane & will cause massive harm to communities and to small business.”During his first week in office, President Trump released multiple immigration actions. He signed a series of orders aimed at the border and increasing enforcement. The president has long vowed to address illegal immigration, but a number of his actions were aimed at longstanding legal pathways.“As commander in chief, I have no higher responsibility than to defend our country from threats and invasions, and that is exactly what I am going to do,” the president said during his inaugural address.Economist Paul Krugman recently said on his Substack that he thinks an immigration crackdown from Trump will “hobble” the country’s food production and home construction.“A crackdown on immigrants is about people,” Kr ugman said. “And because it’s about people, Trump’s hostility to immigrants is likely to do far more damage, humanitarian and even economic, than his trade policy.”

First-term Texas lawmaker calling for deportation of Ilhan Omar - Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) has called for the deportation Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), a U.S. citizen, to her birth country of Somalia. “America would be a better place if @IlhanMN were deported back to Somalia,” Gill wrote Tuesday on the social platform X. Gill, a first-term lawmaker representing Texas’s 26th Congressional District, was responding to a clip another X user shared Tuesday of the Minnesota Democrat’s recent interview with a reporter. Thirty minutes later, in another post, Gill wrote that “we should have never let Ilhan Omar into our country.” Omar came to the U.S. as a refugee in 1995 and became a naturalized citizen at 17 years old in 2000. A spokesperson for Gill told The Hill, “Representative Omar’s conduct raises questions about to whom she is most loyal- the American people or illegal aliens from Somalia. Representative Gill simply stated that it is disgraceful for a sitting Congresswoman and US citizen to facilitate the invasion of our country by illegal alien Somalis.” In the clip, Omar, the first Somali American congressmember, outlined what Somalians who are “undocumented or who their documentation might have lapsed” should do if they are questioned by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers. “You are not obligated to answer their questions. Just state that your are advised by a lawyer not to answer questions,” Omar told the reporter. “Disclosure of your name, immigration status, and the mode of entry is not mandatory. Learn the laws and prepare yourself and refrain from disclosing information that you prefer them not to know.” Omar faced deportation calls last year after a mistranslated clip of her speech in Somali sparked heavy backlash on the right. At the time, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) moved to censure Omar and later told reporters that “I would love to expel her; I think she should be deported, I honestly do,” over the wrongly translated remarks. Tech billionaire and close President Trump ally Elon Musk also reacted to the Tuesday clip of Omar, writing Tuesday that “she is breaking the law. Literally. Outright.” “It just shows you how much he lacks an understanding of what the laws of the country are,” Omar said Tuesday on on “CNN News Central” when asked about Musk’s post.

Big Deportation Raids Begin In Tren De Aragua-Infested Aurora, Colorado - The ATF's Denver division announced on X that its agents and Department of Justice partners are assisting Homeland Security and other federal law enforcement agencies in citywide "immigration enforcement efforts" today. The metro area is controlled by far-left globalist lawmakers who pushed sanctuary city policies and, in return, flooded some areas, such as Aurora, with members of the violent and heavily armed Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.ATF, along with our Department of Justice partners, is assisting Department of Homeland Security and other federal law enforcement partners with their immigration enforcement efforts today in the Denver metro area. pic.twitter.com/ceH8upG1Xn The DEA's Rocky Mountain Division posted a video on X, showing agents using flash bangs at an apartment complex where suspected migrant gang members resided. Local media outlet 9NEWS' Chris Vanderveen wrote on X, "Multiple federal operations taking place in Denver/Aurora this morning." Another local area journalist reported: "A pretty big police presence in Aurora this morning." #Breaking: A pretty big police presence in Aurora this morning. This is at the intersection of Oneida and Leetsdale. We are definitely seeing a lot of law-enforcement, FBI and ICE. I have talked to several people and I am continuing to work to get more info. @CBSNewsColoradopic.twitter.com/yMJoc4Kfyp Big day for ICE. 100+ members of the violent Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua were targeted for arrest and detention in Aurora, Colo., today by ICE and its partners @FBI @DEAHQ @CBP @ATFHQ & @USMarshalsHQ in an ongoing investigation. pic.twitter.com/LzIVDjsee6 More color about the immigration raids via 9NEWS:Colorado Rapid Response Network, a nonprofit that assists immigrants, said it had confirmed operations were underway at those two locations and said ICE was involved.The operation is the third by federal agents since President Donald Trump's inauguration. ICE has conducted operations in cities including Chicago and New York, targeting the arrests of immigrants without proper documentation.Last week, the agency temporarily called off the Aurora operation due to media leaks, according to NBC News. A source told NBC that the leaks posed an operational security risk for officers.The raids were expected to be carried out by ICE; U.S. Marshals; the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives; the Drug Enforcement Administration; FBI and other federal agencies, NBC reported.Last week, the City of Aurora released a statement saying the city and the Aurora Police Department were aware of media reports about federal immigration enforcement plans.

An undocumented immigrant’s plight under Trump’s deportation policies - — Eulogio Hernández Box lit a candle at the altar in his living room and knelt to pray. In the predawn darkness, all was quiet in the small house with white siding. His wife was already working her regular factory shift that started at 5 a.m. His four sons — 16, 15, 10 and 9 — were still asleep. It was early on Jan. 22. Two days earlier, a new president had taken office promising to deport millions of people who were in the country illegally. Eulogio was one of them. He had arrived as a teenager in 2001, leaving behind his village in Guatemala. In the years since, he had worked hard and provided for his children. Now he was 39. After 24 years, his ability to remain in the country would come down to a check-in later that day at an Immigration and Customs Enforcement office outside Cleveland. For an administration determined to ramp up deportations, people like Eulogio were easy targets. They were already subject to deportation orders, but under President Joe Biden, they were not considered priorities for removal because they did not represent a threat to public safety. They number in the hundreds of thousands. Eulogio’s only offense had been a traffic stop. Eulogio’s first job in the United States, at age 15, wasn’t far from here. He worked at Gerber’s Poultry, he said, under a name that wasn’t his. His first task was picking up plucked chickens that had dropped from a chute into a box and flinging them into a larger box, which, when full, was taken to the freezer. He was so young he treated it like a game. Ten years went by at the poultry plant: sorting chickens, cutting chickens, packing chickens, entering orders into a computer. Other jobs followed. Pouring concrete. Installing plumbing. Ten months with an oil company in Uhrichsville. Constructing a four-floor hotel in Youngstown. Building new homes in Medina. Gutting houses and renovating them. He married, had children, bought a house. Last year, his ICE appointment in the Cleveland suburb of Brooklyn Heights was uneventful. He returned home by midday and slipped back into the rhythms of family life: dinners at the table in the kitchen, readying his kids for school in the morning, Sundays at a church where his sons served as altar boys.This time would be different. Eulogio carried a battered FedEx envelope that contained his paperwork and walked up the stairs to the second floor. Inside was Ford, wrapped in a coat and carrying more files. Ford, Carvajal-Basto and Eulogio passed through a metal detector and sat down in a row of black chairs. Eulogio was thinking about Trump and how he had promised to deport everyone who was in the country illegally. He wasn’t sure how that would work. Could Trump just give an order, and had it already taken effect?It was 8:46 a.m. At the far end of the room, a faux wood door opened and a bearded man in a hoodie came out. “Eulogio Hernández?” he said. Eulogio and Ford stood up. “Vas a estar bien, mijo,” Carvajal-Basto said quietly. You’re going to be okay, son.The man at the door recognized Ford, a regular presence at the ICE office. “Coming in hot,” he said. “Bringing the big guns.” Ford explained that the ICE officer said that he was ready to detain Eulogio immediately and put him on the next deportation flight to Guatemala. But she suggested that they could save the taxpayer the expense of detaining him and flying him home if they allowed him the time to do it himself.The officer ordered Eulogio to return to the office in two weeks to present an airline ticket for Guatemala departing in February. If not, they would come to find him. Ford tried to emphasize the positive. “We don’t have an arrest today,” she said. “If it was another officer, I think that is what would have happened.” On the drive home, Eulogio thought through his options.How do you wrap up 24 years? He didn’t know. His mind went to practical matters. He would transfer his house and his Honda minivan into someone else’s name, someone he trusted. His two older boys — both football players — would have to get part-time jobs to help with expenses. He shied away from the enormity of what they were facing. The end of his life in the United States, the end of their life together. His children were American; they would stay here with Silvia. This cold place in the middle of the country was all they knew — its schools and football fields, its Chipotle and McDonald’s outlets, its malls and churches. Chex, meanwhile, was an abstraction that existed somewhere between the haziness of childhood memories and the hyper-reality of the internet age. When Eulogio was a kid, the village didn’t even have electricity. Now he could see drone footage of the place on his phone, trace the road and ridges, see the craggy peaks that towered in the distance. That whole day, distracted by worry about Eulogio’s check-in, Silvia had been unable to focus on her work. It was a good job, with nobody yelling or forcing her to rush. She earned $16 an hour reloading a machine filling tubes on an assembly line. When she saw Eulogio’s text, her heart flooded with relief. “What did they tell you?” she asked him. The news was bad, Eulogio replied. He had to return to ICE with a ticket in two weeks.Silvia crumpled. “What are we going to do?” Eulogio was in contact with an immigration activist who promised to use whatever time they had to fight the deportation, but Ford said there were no legal avenues left. Perhaps, Eulogio thought, he could seek sanctuary in a church again, although one of the Trump administration’s first moves was to rescind the policy that made places of worship “protected areas” from immigration enforcement. Meanwhile, he would have to present a ticket. He found a flight for Feb. 22: Cleveland to Miami, Miami to Guatemala City. Silvia led the Rosary in Spanish, kneeling for half an hour on the hard floor, her eyes red with tears.The next morning Eulogio would be back at work, gutting and remodeling a house, his face and hands caked with grit. Each day was one day closer to farewell. But for now, before time ran out, there was prayer and music, songs of faith and sacrifice.

Trump’s deportation push leads to arrests of non-criminal immigrants : NPR — When Carlos, 18, bought his first bicycle on Jan. 25, he was beaming with happiness. He couldn't believe the shiny light blue bicycle had only cost $13 at a thrift store, and that he was able to pay for it with the money he had earned from his job as a dishwasher at a nearby pizza shop. Later that day he went to bed, looking forward to an early-morning ride with his cousins. But that bike ride never happened. In the early morning of Sunday, Jan. 26, immigration officers knocked on the door of Carlos' home. Marian, his stepmother, opened the door and told Carlos to come out of his room. Minutes later, Carlos was in the custody of the federal government. Marian told NPR no warrant was produced. She said immigration officers told her Carlos had appeared in a video with firearms and drugs, but they didn't show such video to her despite her asking. NPR could not corroborate the existence of such video in social media, and could not find any criminal record for Carlos in Texas, or the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement didn't respond to multiple requests for comment about Carlos' arrest. The story of Carlos is an example of how immigrants — some without legal status, others with legal protections — are being caught up in President Donald Trump's promises of mass arrests and deportations, despite not having a criminal record. Tom Homan, Trump's border czar, told CNN a day after that ICE was conducting "targeted enforcement operations." "They know exactly who they are looking for, they know pretty much where to find them," Homan said, referring to immigrants who were in the country illegally and who have committed a crime. This is something that Marian was on board with. "I've always said, we might be from the same country, but we are 100 percent in agreement that if someone harms someone that person should leave," Marian said in Spanish. "But I never made that comment thinking it could happen to me and my family." Juan, Carlos' dad, said he never imagined police were going to come knocking on their door. "We are good people, we are not hiding any criminal and no one who lives in this house has committed a crime in the U.S.," Juan said in Spanish. "We have behaved, we've done things the right way, and that's why we didn't fear we were going to go through this." But when immigration officers knocked on their door, Marian said she felt like they treated Carlos like a criminal. "He doesn't represent nor has any marks on his body that shows he's a danger to society, he doesn't have any tattoos … he doesn't have any scars," Marian said, adding that Carlos hobbies were playing soccer with his cousins, and spending time with his family. Now she worries about what will happen to him. "We want to get him out, and leave," Marian said.The day Carlos was arrested, about 1,100 people were arrested by ICE across the country, the agency reported on social media.

Man charged after pregnant woman dies in attempt to cross US-Canada border - (AP) — A man extradited from Canada was arraigned on human smuggling charges Thursday in the case of a 33-year-old pregnant woman found dead in a frigid northern New York river after she illegally crossed the border, according to federal authorities. The body of Ana Vasquez-Flores of Mexico was found in the Great Chazy River just south of the Canadian border on Dec. 14, 2023, two days after her husband told U.S. border agents she had crossed illegally and was lost. Searchers found footprints in the snow leading to the river, where she drowned, according to federal authorities. Vasquez-Flores’ death came amid a surge of people crossing into New York and New England from Canada. The incident became an example of the perils migrants face trekking through the wooded and often snowy landscape along the U.S.-Canada border. Jhader Augusto Uribe-Tobar, 36, is accused by federal prosecutors of smuggling Vasquez-Flores into the United States for $2,500 and instructing her to wade through the river in the dark. Uribe-Tobar pleaded not guilty to federal charges of alien smuggling and conspiracy to commit alien smuggling. He was detained pending a trial. Prosecutors say he is a citizen of Colombia and lives in Quebec, Canada. “This tragedy highlights the dangers of illegal migration and how, as alleged, smugglers deliberately put people in harm’s way for profit,” U.S. Attorney Carla Freedman said in a prepared statement.

Trump to form task force to protect Christian rights - President Trump announced plans Thursday to establish a task force and a presidential commission to protect Christians from religious discrimination. Trump addressed the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, where he laid out multiple steps he planned to take to address what he described as attacks on religious liberty and on Christians in particular. “While I’m in the White House, we will protect Christians in our schools, in our military, in our government, in our workplaces, hospitals and in our public squares,” he said. “And we will bring our country back together as one nation under God.” Trump said he would establish a presidential commission on religious liberty that “will work tirelessly to uphold this most fundamental right.” The president also said he would sign an executive order to make Attorney General Pam Bondi the head of a task force to “eradicate anti-Christian bias.” The task force will aim to stop “all forms of anti-Christian targeting and discrimination within the federal government,” Trump said. He also said he would create a White House Faith Office, led by the Rev. Paula White, who has served as a religious adviser to Trump for several years. Trump has for years accused his political opponents infringing on religious liberty and accused them of persecuting Christians. Republicans decried the Biden Justice Department for prosecuting anti-abortion activists who blocked the entrances to abortion clinics. The president last month pardoned nearly two dozen individuals who were convicted in those cases. GOP lawmakers in 2023 seized on a memo written by an FBI agent that detailed growing overlap between white nationalist groups and “Radical-Traditionalist Catholics,” which it identified as a small minority within the church. Then-FBI Director Christopher Wray ordered the memo be removed, saying it violated the agency’s policies on conducting investigations based on religious affiliation. The Biden administration launched separate initiatives to combat surges in antisemitism and Islamophobic incidents, especially in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel.

Trump vows sweeping tariffs on oil, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors - President Trump on Friday vowed to impose sweeping tariffs on semiconductor chips, pharmaceuticals, steel and aluminum and oil and gas.“We’ll be doing pharmaceuticals. Importantly in drugs and medicines, etc. All forms of medicine and pharmaceuticals,” Trump said. “And we’ll be doing, very importantly, steel, and we’ll also be doing chips and things associated with chips.”The president said he was eyeing Feb. 18 to impose oil and gas tariffs. He also said that he would tariff Canadian crude oil imports at 10 percent beginning Saturday, while other Canadian goods would be hit with a 25 percent tariff. He signaled other tariffs would be imposed in the coming weeks, though he did not provide exact dates. Trump also told reporters in the Oval Office he would “absolutely” place tariffs on goods from the European Union.“They’re treating us so badly,” Trump said of the EU.Trump’s threat came a day before his administration is set to enact tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China. Trump acknowledged to reporters that the tariffs might cause a “short-term disruption” for consumers. But he argued it would lead to a long-term benefit for U.S. manufacturing. “Tariffs don’t cause inflation. Tariffs cause success,” Trump said. “There could some temporary short-term disruption, and people understand that.”The stock market fell on Friday after the White House made clear the tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China would not be delayed. Mexico and Canada are two of the top trading partners with the United States, and experts have warned that tariffs could lead to increased prices for American consumers for certain goods.

Trump launches global trade war, with Canada and Mexico as his first targets United States President Donald Trump escalated a global trade war Saturday with executive orders imposing punitive tariffs on the country’s three largest trading partners. Starting Tuesday, the US will impose a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico. Goods from China, already subject to a vast array of tariffs imposed during the first Trump and Biden administrations, will face an additional 10 percent tariff. Trump has signaled that this is only the first step in a broader effort to reshape the global economy, geopolitics and class relations in favor of American imperialism. Further trade war measures against the EU and other countries are set to be announced later this month. As it is, the measures announced Saturday will roil the North American and world economy. Canada and Mexico quickly announced retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of US goods, which under Trump’s orders will automatically trigger further US tariffs. Trump has lied non-stop about how tariffs work, claiming that they are paid by the foreign-based exporter and will be painless for American workers. None of this is true. Tariffs are paid by the importing company. Faced with tariffs equal to 25 percent of the value of the commodity they are importing, US companies will pass this additional cost on to consumers in the form of price hikes or else cancel their orders. In either case, it will be disastrous for the workers of North America. Workers in Canada and Mexico will lose their jobs, while workers in the United States will see a massive surge in inflation. US workers will also face job cuts due to retaliatory tariffs—Canada is the single largest US export market—and the blowing up of continental production chains developed over more than three decades under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its Trump-negotiated successor, the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA). The tariff hikes will ravage the economies of Canada and Mexico, which rely on the US for 77 percent and 80 percent of their exports, respectively. A veritable tsunami of mass layoffs and plant shutdowns will be the immediate result. The premier of Ontario, where Canada’s auto industry is centered, has warned of 500,000 job losses in that province alone. Auto production in North America is highly integrated, with vehicles assembled from parts that cross borders multiple times. Car manufacturers will not only face a 25 percent tariff on finished vehicles imported from Canada and Mexico, but also compounded tariffs on components, including those used in vehicles whose final assembly is within the US. The eruption of a North American trade war could consequently result not only in the almost immediate shutdown of most Canadian and Mexican auto assembly and parts plants. It will massively disrupt US auto production, likely resulting in tens of thousands of layoffs at US auto plants within days or weeks. Fearing a massive public backlash, Trump made a single exception to his 25 percent tariffs, capping the levy on imported Canadian energy—primarily crude oil—at 10 percent. Canadian oil accounts for over 20 percent of US consumption.

Trump says potential pain caused by tariffs ‘worth the price that must be paid’ — President Trump on Sunday defended his decision to impose sweeping tariffs on the United States’s top three trading partners, even as he acknowledged there may be “some pain” caused by the economic fallout.Trump took to Truth Social on Sunday morning after he signed off on 25 percent tariffs on Canada, 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China, which appear likely to set off a significant trade war. Trump hit back at critics and argued the decision was necessary because of “major” trade deficits with those countries.“The ‘Tariff Lobby,’ headed by the Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME, AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA,” Trump posted from his Mar-a-Lago estate. “THOSE DAYS ARE OVER!”Trump argued if companies made their products in the United States, there would be no tariffs.“This will be the Golden Age of America!” Trump continued. “Will there be some pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!). But we will make America great again, and it will all be worth the price that must be paid. We are a country that is now being run with common sense — and the results will be spectacular!!!”Trump in a subsequent post claimed the U.S. does not need any Canadian products and suggested Canada “should become our Cherished 51st State.” Canadian officials have repeatedly rebuffed Trump’s suggestion that the U.S. could annex Canada.The president on Saturday signed tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China that are set to go into effect on Tuesday. Canadian energy imports will only be tariffed at 10 percent. The orders Trump signed do not contain exceptions, and they include a clause that warns Trump may increase the tariffs if the target countries retaliate.The move led to swift responses from all three nations.Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Saturday night that Canada would impose 25 percent tariffs on more than $100 billion in U.S. goods. Trudeau’s likely successor, Pierre Poilievre, called Trump’s tariffs “unjust and unjustified” and called for a “dollar-for-dollar” response.Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a post on the social platform X in Spanish that her team was working on a response that included measures to defend her country’s interests, though specific steps were not immediately clear.China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would file a legal case against the United States at the World Trade Organization.Experts have repeatedly warned that tariffs could lead to higher costs that companies will pass onto consumers. The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank, estimated Trump’s tariffs announced Saturday would result in what amounts to an average tax increase of $830 per household in the U.S.Democratic lawmakers have decried Trump’s decision as one that will increase prices despite his campaign pledge to bring down inflation. Business groups, such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, have also criticized the tariffs. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) warned in a statement late Friday that certain tariffs on Canadian imports “will impose a significant burden on many families, manufacturers, the forest products industry, small businesses, lobstermen, and agricultural producers.”

Trump rips ‘always wrong’ Wall Street Journal for criticizing his tariffs - President Trump on Sunday ripped The Wall Street Journal for criticizing his recent tariffs.“The ‘Tariff Lobby,’ headed by the Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME, AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA,” said the president on his Truth Social platform.A Saturday op-ed from the Journal’s editorial board criticized Trump’s tariff plan and predicted a declining trend in trade and manufacturing capability in the wake of signed sanctions. “Mr. Trump sometimes sounds as if the U.S. shouldn’t import anything at all, that America can be a perfectly closed economy making everything at home. This is called autarky, and it isn’t the world we live in, or one that we should want to live in, as Mr. Trump may soon find out,” said the op-ed.The Journal’s editorial board also received criticism from the White House.“The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board’s latest tirade against President Donald Trump’s decisive action to stop fentanyl from killing innocent Americans is a helpful remember that the WSJ is always wrong when it comes to tariffs and trade. The Journal’s editorial page has supported America Last policies such as open borders and outsourcing for years now,” reads Sunday comments from the White House, as highlighted by Mediaite.A 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, was imposed by Trump on Saturday. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum pledged to “enhance the strong bilateral relations” between their countries the same day President Trump went forward with tariffs on them, according to a readout on Trudeau’s website.

Ontario will end provincial contract with Musk’s Starlink amid Trump tariffs -Ontario’s premier said he’s “ripping up” the contract between his province and Elon Musk’s Starlink internet service, following President Trump’s decision to target Canada with 25 percent tariffs, which are set to go into effect Tuesday. “Ontario won’t do business with people hellbent on destroying our economy,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Monday in a post on the social platform X. Noting Ontario spends about $30 billion annually on procurement, Ford said Ontario would prohibit contracts with American-based companies, which would likely cost them billions in new revenue. “They only have President Trump to blame,” he said. “We’re going one step further,” he continued. “We’ll be ripping up the province’s contract with Starlink.” Ford signed a Canadian $100 million deal with Musk’s company in November to deliver high-speed internet to remote residents in rural and northern Ontario, The Associated Press reported.Trump on Saturday signed off on 25 percent tariffs on Canada, with 10 percent tariffs on Canadian energy imports. He also targeted Mexico with 25 percent tariffs and China with 10 percent tariffs. Tariffs on Mexico have been delayed one month, but tariffs on Canada and China are set to take effect on Tuesday.Trump said Monday morning he had already spoken with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau about tariffs he wanted to be imposed on Canada and that they would speak again Monday afternoon.The response from Canada to Trump’s tariffs has been fierce. Trudeau said Sunday night that Canada would impose 25 percent tariffs on more than $100 billion in U.S. goods.. At least half of Canada’s provinces, including Ontario, directed their respective liquor boards to pull U.S. alcohol from the shelves of public stores. “Canada didn’t start this fight with the U.S., but you better believe we’re ready to win it,” Ford said.

Canadian ambassador to U.S.: Canadians ‘perplexed’ and ‘confused’ by Trump’s tariffs -Canada’s ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, said on Sunday that Canadians are “perplexed” and “confused” by tariffs enacted by President Trump. “Canadians are perplexed, I think disappointed,” Hillman told ABC News’s George Stephanopoulos. “We view ourselves as your — your neighbor, your closest friend, your ally, you know, a country whose — whose citizens have fought and died with you around the world, in defense of values that we share, who [have] come to the aid of the Los Angeles fires most recently.” “And I think they are really perplexed by this move. So I don’t think anybody will need to tell Canadians what to do, I [think] that they will make their decisions on their own.” “You say perplexed. Do Canadians feel betrayed?” Stephanopoulos asked Hillman. “I think … I think they’re confused,’” Hillman responded. On Sunday, the president on Truth Social defended his choice to impose sweeping tariffs on his country’s top three trading partners. “The ‘Tariff Lobby,’ headed by the Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME, AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA,” Trump said on social media. If companies made their products in the U.S., the president claimed, tariffs would be nonexistent. “This will be the Golden Age of America!” Trump continued. “Will there be some pain? Yes, maybe (and maybe not!). But we will make America great again, and it will all be worth the price that must be paid.”

New tariffs could raise home prices and sideline potential buyers - The U.S. housing market was already struggling under the weight of high mortgage interest rates, a low supply of existing homes for sale and historically high home prices.Now tariffs on building materials are adding even more pressure.About 30% of softwood lumber consumed in the U.S. is imported, largely from Canada. Wallboard, known as gypsum, is imported from Mexico. The 25% tariff President Donald Trump levied on goods from the two key trading partners will make those products that much more expensive. The Mexico tariffs were postponed Monday for a month, but they are still on the table."More than 70% of the imports of two essential materials that home builders rely on — softwood lumber and gypsum — come from Canada and Mexico, respectively," Carl Harris, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, wrote in a release. "Tariffs on lumber and other building materials increase the cost of construction and discourage new development, and consumers end up paying for the tariffs in the form of higher home prices." Home prices are already up well over 40% since the start of the pandemic and were still 3.8% higher in November, compared with the previous November, according to the latest read from the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller national home price index. That annual increase was higher than the 3.6% in October.Duties on building materials could make the market even harder for buyers."We believe this could make worse the affordability crisis for first-time buyers," wrote Jaret Seiberg, housing policy analyst for TD Cowen Washington Research Group. "On the plus side, it could increase pressure on Congress to enact policies that encourage more entry-level construction including expanded tax credit programs."The NAHB is asking the Trump administration to exempt building materials from the 25% tariffs, noting his executive order on the first day of his presidency that sought to "expand housing supply." While the U.S. has ramped up lumber production in recent years, 70% of the country's sawmill and wood product imports — $8.5 billion — come from Canada. They are already subject to a 14.5% tariff, so Trump's new policy would raise it to over 39%.And 71% of lime and gypsum product imports are from Mexico, totaling $352 million. Other materials, such as steel and appliances, are sourced from China. Trump put an additional 10% tariff on goods from China on Saturday.New duties on imports from China, Canada and Mexico could raise construction material costs by $3 billion to $4 billion if they all take effect, affecting builders' ability to complete projects, according to the NAHB.The tariffs are likely to hit smaller homebuilders with tighter margins harder, but big builders are not immune."Even with a smaller portion of our lumber coming from Canada, and some materials from Mexico, we will all be affected — which, in turn, can impact consumers and their ability to purchase a home in the short-term," said Sheryl Palmer, CEO of Arizona-based homebuilder Taylor Morrison. "In a time where some consumers are still struggling to overcome higher interest rates, my sincere hope is that these will be short-lived."Builders are already contending with a labor shortage that is only getting worse after the Trump administration started mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Roughly 30% of construction workers are estimated to be immigrants, and a significant share of those workers are undocumented, according to the National Immigration Forum, an immigration advocacy group. "You can run them all out of the country, but who's going to build houses?" said Bruce McNeilage, CEO of Nashville-based Kinloch Partners, a single-family rental home developer.

Trump tariffs could raise drug costs, worsen shortages - President Donald Trump's steep tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China could worsen ex­ist­ing drug shortages in the U.S., raise health-care costs for patients and threaten cash-strapped generic drugmakers, some drug trade groups warn.Trump on Saturday announced he would impose a 25% tariff on nearly all goods shipped from Canada and Mexico and a 10% charge on imports from China, all of which were set to take effect on Tuesday. On Monday, both Mexico and Canada said the tariffs would be paused for about a month.Still, the proposed import taxes come as the U.S. grapples with an unprecedented shortfall of crucial medicine ranging from injectable cancer therapies to generics, or cheaper versions of brand-name medicines, which has forced hospitals and patients to ration drugs. It also comes as many Americans struggle to afford the high costs of prescription medications. The U.S. relies heavily on other countries for pharmaceutical products, especially for generic drugs. Those medications make up 90% of Americans' prescriptions, so tariffs could potentially threaten many patients' access to affordable treatments. China in particular is a large supplier of active pharmaceutical ingredients, or APIs, for both brand-name and generic drugs due to lower manufacturing costs in the country. APIs are the main component of a drug that causes the desired effect of the treatment. Some generic drugs are manufactured overseas entirely. The tariffs could "increase already problematic drug shortages" by forcing generic manufacturers out of the market due to low profit margins, according to a statement from John Murphy, CEO of the Association for Accessible Medicines, which represents generic pharmaceutical companies. "Generic manufacturers simply can't absorb new costs," Murphy said Sunday. "Our manufacturers sell at an extremely low price, sometimes at a loss, and are increasingly forced to exit markets where they are underwater." He urged the Trump administration to exempt generic products from tariffs, adding that the overall value of all generic sales in the U.S. has decreased by $6.4 billion in five years despite "growth in volume" and new generic drug launches. The Healthcare Distribution Alliance, which represents 40 drug distributors, has also called for the Trump administration to reconsider including pharmaceutical products in tariffs. In a statement Sunday, the group said tariffs would strain the pharmaceutical supply chain and "could adversely affect American patients," whether that is through increased medical product costs or manufacturers leaving the market. The group said the tariffs will put additional pressure on an industry already in financial distress, noting that distributors operate on low profit margins of just 0.3%.The U.S. will likely see "new and worsened shortages of important medications," and those costs will be "passed down to payers and patients, including those in the Medicare and Medicaid programs," the Healthcare Distribution Alliance said. An estimate from The Budget Lab at Yale University said long-term prices of pharmaceutical products in the U.S. will be 1.1% higher after shifts in the supply chain.

Trump, Trudeau agree to pause Canada tariffs for 30 days — President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau agreed to a pause in implementing tariffs for at least a month, just hours after Trump agreed to delay tariffs on Mexico. The announced delay on the 25 percent tariffs — set to start Tuesday — came after Trump and Trudeau’s second conversation Monday. Trump said Canada agreed to secure the northern border and work to combat the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., adding that it will implement its $1.3 billion border plan and agreed to take other steps to secure the border. “As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that. I am very pleased with this initial outcome, and the Tariffs announced on Saturday will be paused for a 30 day period to see whether or not a final Economic deal with Canada can be structured. FAIRNESS FOR ALL!” Trump said on Truth Social. Trudeau, while announcing the pause on social platform X, outlined Canada’s new plans, which will appoint a “Fentanyl Czar,” list cartels as terrorists, “ensure 24/7 eyes” on the U.S.-Canadian border, and launch a joint strike force with the U.S. to take on crime, fentanyl flow and money laundering. Trump and Trudeau both signed a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl with $200 million in funding, they said. And, Trudeau noted that Canada is implementing its $1.3 billion border plan to reinforce the border with new equipment and personnel. “Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border,” Trudeau said. The agreement with Canada mirrors the same deal Trump struck with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum earlier Monday, ahead of implementation of 25 percent tariffs on Mexico. They announced Mexico will send to the U.S. border 10,000 soldiers tasked with stopping the flow of fentanyl and immigrants entering the U.S. illegally. Trump on Saturday signed off on 25 percent tariffs on both Mexico and Canada and 10 percent tariffs on China. There has not been an announcement about the tariffs on China, although China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would file a legal case against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization. Trudeau said Sunday night that Canada would impose 25 percent tariffs on more than $100 billion in U.S. goods. Trudeau’s likely successor, Pierre Poilievre, called Trump’s tariffs “unjust and unjustified” and called for a “dollar-for-dollar” response. The president also reiterated his desire to see Canada become part of the U.S. earlier Monday, downplaying the significance of the economic relationship between the two countries, even though Canada is one of the U.S.’s top trade partners.

Trump pauses Canada, Mexico tariffs after border pledges -- The announced delay on the 25 percent tariffs against Canada — set to start Tuesday — came after Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s second conversation Monday.Trump said Canada agreed to secure the northern border and work to combat the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., adding that it will implement its $1.3 billion border plan and agreed to take other steps to secure the border.“As President, it is my responsibility to ensure the safety of ALL Americans, and I am doing just that. I am very pleased with this initial outcome, and the Tariffs announced on Saturday will be paused for a 30 day period to see whether or not a final Economic deal with Canada can be structured. FAIRNESS FOR ALL!” Trump posted online.Trudeau, while announcing the pause on social platform X, outlined Canada’s new plans, which will appoint a “Fentanyl Czar,” list cartels as terrorists, “ensure 24/7 eyes” on the U.S.-Canadian border and launch a joint strike force with the U.S. to take on crime, fentanyl flow and money laundering.Trump and Trudeau both signed a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentanyl with $200 million in funding, they said.The agreement with Canada mirrors the same deal Trump struck with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum earlier Monday, ahead of implementation of 25 percent tariffs on Mexico.They announced Mexico will send to the U.S. border 10,000 soldiers tasked with stopping the flow of fentanyl and immigrants entering the U.S. illegally.Trump on Saturday signed off on the tariffs on both Mexico and Canada and 10 percent tariffs on China. There has not been an announcement about the tariffs on China, though China’s Ministry of Commerce said it would file a legal case against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization.

Trump oil tariffs expected to raise price at the pump - President Trump’s tariff on Canadian oil is expected to raise prices at the pump for U.S. consumers, if it takes effect as planned after a 30-day delay.Analysts told The Hill that the 10 percent tariff set to be imposed under an executive order Trump signed over the weekend would lead to a pricing bump, though it ​would not be evenly distributed. According to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, consumers in the Midwest, Rockies and New England would see the greatest impacts. “New England relies on refined products from Canada,” said De Haan, referring to products like gasoline that are processed at Canadian refineries. “Refineries in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Rockies rely more on the Canadian crude oil for sourcing oil for their refineries,” he added.Ultimately, De Haan said, drivers in New England could see gasoline prices rise by 15 cents to 25 cents per gallon. In the Midwest, Rockies and Great Lakes, he predicted a hike of between 5 cents and 20 cents per gallon.He noted that people in New England could also see a price bump for home heating oil of 20 cents to 30 cents per gallon.Trump is planning to institute the tariff on Canadian oil and a larger 25 percent tariff on other goods from America’s northern neighbor. However, he announced Monday evening that the tariffs, which would have taken effect at midnight, will be paused for 30 days to see whether the U.S. and Canada can reach a ” final Economic deal.”He said that in the meantime, Canada has agreed to secure the U.S.-Canada border and try to prevent fentanyl from entering the U.S. Canada is the top supplier of U.S. oil imports, providing 60 percent of the nation’s crude oil imports last year.

China hits back at US tariffs -- China has struck back quickly against the imposition by US President Trump of a 10 percent tariff on all its exports with a series of measures, including tariff hikes on a range of US exports, an investigation into Google and export controls on tungsten-related materials. It has imposed a 15 percent levy on US coal and liquified natural gas exports and a 10 percent tariff on oil and agricultural equipment. According to a report in the Financial Times, the competition investigation into Google will focus on its Android operating system and whether its practices cause any harm to Chinese phone makers which use the software. The move on Google follows a decision in December to launch an anti-trust investigation into the leading US AI chipmaker Nvidia. An investigation into the chipmaker Intel is also reported to be under consideration. The imposition of export controls on tungsten was announced by the Commerce Ministry together with controls on “25 rare metal products and technologies.” China is the world’s largest producer of tungsten, supplying about 80 percent of the global market. Tungsten is valued for its high density and melting point and used in the production of armour-piercing missiles. Responding to the US measures, which came into effect yesterday, China’s finance ministry issued what amounted to a pro forma statement that they seriously violated the rules of the World Trade Organisation. “It is not only unhelpful in solving its own problems, but also undermines the normal economic and trade cooperation between China and the US,” the ministry said. The Chinese response has been characterised as relatively muted and measured. The targeting of LNG and coal will not have a great impact. The US supplied just 6 percent of China’s LNG last year and China imports little coal from the US. Describing the response as “measured and appropriate,” “It allows Beijing to be seen to be doing something, without exactly reacting in a manner that would be seen as inviting further retaliation.”

China Slaps Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Crude and LNG - China has struck back at Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese imports into the United States, announcing today a 15% levy on imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and coal, and a 10% tariff on crude oil. Beijing also introduced export limits on more critical minerals, including tungsten, molybdenum, tellurium, ruthenium, and ruthenium-related elements in a bid to “safeguard national security interests,” Reuters reported. Tariffs will be introduced on farm equipment imports from the United States as well as some cars. “The trade war is in the early stages so the likelihood of further tariffs is high,” Oxford Economics said in comments on Beijing’s latest retaliatory move. President Trump announced he would be imposing import tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports into the United States and adding a 10% levy on Chinese imports before he took office, justifying the move with trade deficits the U.S. was running with its biggest trade partners. Trump reduced the rate for Canadian crude oil to 10% and on Monday announced a 30-day delay to the tariffs on Mexico and Canada taking effect amid urgent negotiations with the heads of the two states as they sought to clinch a new trade deal with Washington. There was no mention of such negotiations with China, however, and the 10% additional tariffs went into effect today. The tariffs on LNG could see a change in flows of the superchilled fuel into China in a reversal of earlier plans to boost these imports, as forecast by Bloomberg Intelligence last month. At the time, the outlet predicted that Trump’s approach to fixing U.S. trade deficits with the country’s biggest trading partners would benefit LNG exporters to Asia, giving them a bigger share of that market. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Chinese gas traders have committed to buying a total of 14 million tons from U.S. producers beginning in 2026. This is 50% more than China’s previous record of U.S. LNG purchases, set back in 2021. Now, these flows may be in jeopardy unless the tariff exchange stops.

Shares Of Tungsten Miner Erupt After China Chokes Supply; CEO Says Customers In "State Of Disbelief" -- The Trump administration's additional 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports took effect Tuesday, prompting Beijing to fire back with retaliatory measures, including tariffs on US goods, antitrust probes on US big tech firms, entity list additions, and export controls on critical minerals. Focusing on export controls on critical metals, Beijing imposed restrictions on key minerals such as tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium, along with certain metallic compounds derived from them.Days later, Bloomberg's Annie Lee spoke with Lewis Black, chief executive officer of North America's Almonty Industries, who stated his customer base is in a "state of disbelief" after Beijing's export controls on the metal used in electronics, defense systems, and machinery. "It's the warning shot, because we cannot exist without it," Black told Lee. He noted: "Our economy, manufacturing, defense, everything, is so dependent on it. And yet, Russia, China and North Korea have about 90% of the output."Shares of Almonty in the US have surged 40% in recent days. The company describes itself as "the largest tungsten mining company in the world outside of China." "The question is, how much will China tighten the screw to be heard?" Black said, adding, "I think the news was bad, but I think it's going to get worse."Beijing's willingness to restrict exports of critical minerals to the US became evident in late 2024 when it banned the export of gallium, germanium, and antimony.Beijing's ongoing export restrictions on critical minerals should serve as a warning to America's military-industrial complex and chipmakers. Perhaps it's time for the Trump administration to ramp up efforts to expand domestic supply chains for mining and refining rare earth minerals, reducing dependence on China.

Trump signs order to create US sovereign wealth fund, eyeing TikTok purchase — President Trump on Monday directed secretaries to begin a process to create an American sovereign wealth fund, suggesting it could partially own the popular app TikTok. The president signed an executive order in the Oval Office to have Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce secretary nominee Howard Lutnick create and lead such a fund. “It’s a very exciting event. We’re going to have a sovereign wealth fund, which we’ve never had,” the president said. “We have a lot of things that create wealth and you’re seeing that over the last two weeks, I think we’ve created more wealth.” Bessent called the fund “very exciting” and said a fund will be created within the next 12 months, noting it will aim to monetize the asset side of the U.S. balance sheet and “put the assets to work.” “TikTok — we’re going to be doing something, perhaps, with TikTok, and perhaps not, if we make the right deal we’ll do it, otherwise we won’t, but I have the right to do that,” Trump said. “And we might put that in the sovereign wealth fund, whatever will make. Or if we do a partnership with very wealthy people. A lot of options, but we could put that as an example of the fund.” The president also said he wants to eventually “catch” the Saudi Arabia wealth fund and argued that the U.S. can have one of the biggest funds in a small period of time. Trump has pushed to reach a deal to keep TikTok active in the U.S. and attributes his popularity on the app to his support from young people in the 2024 race. Trump signed an executive order on his first day in office halting for 75 days the enforcement of the law that required TikTok’s parent company to divest itself of the app. The ban on TikTok was set to go into effect the day before Trump was sworn in, after the app’s China-based parent company, ByteDance, failed to divest as required by a law passed by Congress and signed by former President Biden.

Questions abound for Trump's sovereign wealth fund plan -The Trump administration's sudden push to create a U.S. sovereign wealth fund has raised more questions than answers, including critical choices about how such a fund would be created and how it could work. How those questions are answered could set up bitter economic and political clashes in Washington and on Wall Street. Trump's executive order to create a U.S. sovereign wealth fund raises important questions — as yet unanswered — around funding, governance, political interference and the purpose that such a fund would serve.

USPS has suspended parcels from Hong Kong and China. Here’s what it means for Shein and Temu - (AP) — Americans are likely to pay more for products from popular Chinese e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu as the U.S. Postal Service said it would stop accepting parcels from China and Hong Kong. The move was announced Tuesday, coming after the U.S. imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods and ended a customs exception that allowed small value parcels to enter the U.S. without paying tax. Canada and Mexico managed to negotiate a month-long reprieve from 25% tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump. It will likely impact online shopping destinations like Shein and Temu, popular with younger shoppers in the U.S. for cheap clothing and other products, usually shipped directly from China. Cheap, direct postal service helps these companies keep costs low, as did the “de minimis” exemption that previously allowed shipments to go tax-free if their value is under $800. The temporary suspension by USPS is likely to delay shipments and could mean higher prices in the long term. The U.S. Postal Service said in a notice that it would temporarily stop accepting inbound parcels from the China and Hong Kong Posts until further notice. U Letters and flats — mail that measures up to 15 inches (38 centimeters) long or 3/4 inches (1.9 centimeters) thick — are not affected. The USPS did not state a reason in a brief announcement, but the suspension came after Trump closed the “de minimis” customs exemption this week that allowed shoppers and importers to avoid duties on packages worth below $800. The exemption was removed as part of an executive order to levy a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. U.S. Customs and Border Protection previously stated that it processes an average of over four million “de minimis” imports each week. Consumers and companies alike will no longer be able to send parcels to the U.S. from Hong Kong or China. This move is likely to impact Chinese e-commerce firms like Shein and Temu, although Shein is likely to be more affected, according to Jacob Cooke, CEO of e-commerce marketing agency WPIC Marketing + Technologies. Both companies have significant market share in the U.S. “Compared to Temu, Shein relies more heavily on USPS for direct-to-consumer shipping from China, and without this channel, it will have to rely more on private carriers,” said Cooke.

Michael Hudson: Trump’s Tariffs Could Cause Huge Global Crisis – (50 minute video, transcript) Michael Hudson and Ben Norton discussed Trump’s economic plans, particularly tariffs, focusing on their internal contradictions and the potential to create an international debt crisis. Originally published at Global Political Economy

• Ben Norton: Donald Trump is threatening to impose tariffs on countries all around the world, including the top three trading partners of the United States: Canada, Mexico, and China.
• Trump: The word “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the dictionary — more beautiful than “love”, more beautiful than “respect”. No, less beautiful than “religion”, no. Right? I don’t want to get into that argument. But the word “tariff” is the most beautiful word in the dictionary, remember that. It’s going to make our country, it’s going to make our country rich.
• Norton: Now, Trump says he’s doing this because he wants to reduce the trade deficit that the US has with the rest of the world.However, there’s a major contradiction in Donald Trump’s economic policy, because he also wants to maintain the US dollar as the global reserve currency.And Trump has threatened other countries, especially countries in BRICS, that are trying to de-dollarize. Trump has said that if countries de-dollarize, he will put 100% tariffs on them.
• Trump: We will keep the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. And it is currently under major siege. Many countries are leaving the dollar.They’re not going to leave the dollar with me. I’ll say, “You leave the dollar, you’re not doing business with the United States, because we’re going to put 100% tariff on your goods”.…I’m very much a traditionalist. I like staying with the dollar. You know that from when I was there. Make the dollar the choice. I hate when countries go off the dollar. I would not allow countries to go off the dollar.
• Norton: So what Trump’s trying to do is have his cake and eat it too, because this is a contradictory policy. Trump wants to reduce the US trade deficit, but he also wants to maintain the US dollar as the global reserve currency.The problem is that if Trump wants other countries to continue using the US dollar in international trade and finance, the US has to run a deficit, so other countries can get access to those dollars. If Trump wants to use tariffs to reduce the US trade deficit, it means that other countries will not be able to get the dollars that they need in order to use the dollar in international trade and finance.So these very contradictory policies that Trump is trying to maintain could have severe repercussions on the global economy. And today, I had the pleasure of speaking with the award-winning economist Michael Hudson, who has warned that if Trump imposes high tariffs on countries like, for instance, Canada and Mexico, their currencies will fall significantly against the US dollar, which will mean that they will not be able to pay off the debt that these countries have denominated in US dollars.This could cause a global debt crisis, as countries around the world can’t get the dollars they need to pay off their debts.Here are a few highlights from my discussion with the economist Michael Hudson. And after I will go straight to the interview.

"We Are Watching A Rapid Re-Ordering Of How The World Works" -The USA’s 10% additional tariffs on imports from China – described by Donald Trump as an “opening salvo” - took effect yesterday. China retaliated swiftly by announcing 15% tariffs on US coal and LNG, and 10% tariffs on crude oil, agricultural machinery and large engine cars. Those retaliatory tariffs only effect a small proportion of US exports, but they are surgically designed to cause maximum discomfort for iconic US companies like Chevrolet and Ford. To prove that they know where the sensitivities lay, China has also launched anti-trust investigations into Google and NVIDIA, and is considering fresh scrutiny of Intel. Additionally, new export controls on critical minerals that are needed for the manufacture of high-tech products, and for which China dominates global production, have been announced. Despite the tit-for-tat between the world’s two largest economies, which seems likely to escalate further, markets were still luxuriating in their relief that a North American trade war has been averted for at least the next 30 days. Consequently, 10-year Treasury yields fell 4.5bps to 4.51%, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell almost 1% to be back below 108, and US stocks rallied with gains led by the NASDAQ – up 1.35%. A soggy JOLTS report that showed job openings falling by more than 500,000 from November to December also contributed to the softer Dollar and lower bond yields, but market pricing for the path of Fed policy rates is little changed. Layoffs fell from November’s upwardly-revised figure of 1.8mn to 1.77m, but this was still well above the 1.74m median estimate on the Bloomberg survey. European equities shrugged off early wobbles following China’s tariff announcements to get in on the rally. The EuroStoxx 50 gained 0.89%, the CAC40 was up 0.66% and the German DAX rose 0.36%. Britain’s FTSE100 was conspicuous as one of the few losers on the day. Crude oil prices continued a recent run of divergence as the WTI front future fell 0.66% to $72.70/bbl (thanks to the China tariffs), but the more international Brent crude front future rose 0.32% to $75.96, in part due to President Trump signing an executive order directing “maximum pressure” on Iran to prevent Iranian acquisition of a nuclear weapon and to drive Iranian oil exports down to zero! Sensationally, Trump also let slip that he has left instructions for Iran to be “obliterated” if he happens to be assassinated by an Iranian agent. All of this is apparently only worth a small uptick in Brent prices. The differing price action in WTI and Brent is interesting as an illustration of the effects of tariff barriers on globalised markets. Are we going to see more and more basis effects introduced into financial instruments? Probably. This will create new headaches for financial risk managers to go alongside the headaches faced by supply chain managers. Also notable for its price action on the day was gold. It hit a fresh all-time high of $2,842/oz, continuing a stellar run since mid-December and a longer-term bull market that stretches back to mid-2022 (rate hikes at the time notwithstanding). This is interesting for loads of reasons, whether it be the buying of foreign central banks who want to get out of reach of US sanctions by holding a no-counterparty asset, or investors buying up the yellow metal as an inflation hedge. There is also an interesting divergence occurring between the copper/gold ratio and US 10-year treasury yields. Does this divergence close at some point for the historical correlation to resume? If so, does that happen via lower gold prices (central banks may have to become sellers), lower yields (in a world of rising tariffs?), higher copper prices (perhaps courtesy of massive energy investment?) or some combination of all of the above?

Lawmakers, legal experts warn shuttering USAID is unconstitutional Lawmakers and legal experts are warning the Trump administration’s efforts to shutter the government’s foreign assistance agency is unconstitutional and is likely to face challenges in court. Over the weekend, agents of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) entered the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) facility. Staff started getting shut out of internal systems Sunday and were told not to come into the headquarters at the Ronald Reagan Building on Monday. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, who leads DOGE, said his team took a “wood chipper” to USAID over the weekend. He has for days railed against USAID on his social media platform X and levied accusations of corruption against the independent agency that has provided humanitarian and development assistance to countries around the world for more than 60 years. “We don’t have a fourth branch of government called Elon Musk, and that’s going to become real clear,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) at a press conference with other Democratic lawmakers outside USAID headquarters. “This illegal, unconstitutional interference with congressional power is threatening lives all over the world.” During an event hosted on X early Monday morning, Musk said that USAID is a “ball of worms” that is “beyond repair,” and that the president agreed to shut it down. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday that he had taken over as acting administrator of USAID amid speculation that Trump may try to merge the stripped-down agency into the State Department. But while Trump may be able to make changes on the margins, as he has with his ban on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives across the federal government, lawmakers and legal experts argue that neither the president nor his agents can unilaterally do away with the agency. “Musk, and perhaps Congress, need to recognize that this isn’t the same as a corporate takeover of another business. Since USAID is an independent agency, only an act of Congress can abolish it. Even shutting down the agency, but just leaving it on the books, should trigger legal challenges,” said James DeSimone, an employment and civil rights attorney at V. James DeSimone Law. Critics have said that since President John F. Kennedy created USAID using an executive order in 1961, President Trump can do away with it via executive order. But that’s not the full story. Congress later passed a law, the Foreign Affairs Reform and Restructuring Act of 1998, codifying USAID as an independent agency. DeSimone also said career civil service employees are not the same as political appointees, who serve at the pleasure of the president and may be asked to resign or be dismissed at any time. . “They have due process rights and legal protections designed to prevent such unlawful political retaliation,” DeSimone said. “And you cannot just put thousands of these people on leave without following federal regulations and providing notice. How long would they be on leave? Because long-term paid leave, without an end, is the same as illegal termination. Litigation is inevitable, even if Congress acts.”

Democrat places blanket hold on Trump’s State Department picks over targeting of USAID — Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, announced Monday he will place a blanket hold on all of President Trump’s nominees to the State Department until the president backs off his effort to shut down USAID, the nation’s chief foreign assistance agency.“Until and unless this brazenly authoritarian action is reversed and USAID is functional again, I will be placing a blanket hold on all of the Trump administration’s State Department nominees. This is self-inflicted chaos of epic proportions that will have dangerous consequences all around the world,” Schatz said in a statement.Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) said he would join Schatz’s holds, while protesting at the USAID headquarters against Trump’s reorganization of the agency. “We’re all in this together,” he said in response to a reporter’s question. That hold would impact Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), Trump’s pick to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Her nomination was reported out of the Foreign Relations Committee last month.Trump adviser Elon Musk has made a strong push to close USAID, which he called on X a “viper’s nest of radical-left Marxists who hate America.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Monday that he’s taken over as USAID’s acting director, criticizing it as a “completely unresponsive agency.”“It’s supposed to respond to policy directives of the State Department, and it refuses to do so,” he said.The effort to shutter the foreign aid agency is getting strong pushback from Democrats, including Schatz, who held a rally and press conference outside its headquarters in the Ronald Reagan Building on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington.“Dismantling USAID is illegal and makes us less safe. USAID was created by federal law and is funded by Congress. Donald Trump and Elon Musk can’t just wish it away with a stroke of a pen – they need to pass a law,” Schatz said.

Democrats blocked from entering USAID headquarters — A group of Senate and House Democrats were blocked from entering the headquarters of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) on Monday. The Democratic lawmakers, who are opposed to President Trump’s efforts to shut down the agency, left without incident after a brief exchange with security officials. The group, led by Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), were told the front office of the administrator of USAID was not available to meet. A select group of USAID employees with the front office administrator were in the office Monday, an official told lawmakers outside the doors, but were not free to meet with the lawmakers. “Underwhelming,” one Democratic lawmaker said about being blocked from entering. The USAID website went dark over the weekend, as information was moved to the State Department’s website and employees were told to telework. The events on Monday added to chaos and uncertainty surrounding the agency’s operations since Trump issued a freeze on all U.S. foreign aid two weeks earlier, stop-work orders for USAID grant recipients, and laid off and furloughed staff. Tech billionaire Elon Musk claimed on Monday that Trump agreed with him to shut down the agency. Van Hollen has said lawmakers are working to file legal proceedings to stop the Trump administration, Musk, and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from “undoing USAID.” “We’re working with lawyers to try and get an injunction,” Van Hollen said. Lawmakers assembled a press conference outside USAID headquarters in Washington D.C. to protest the assault on the agency. “What Trump and Musk have done is not only wrong, it’s illegal,” said Rep. Don Beyer (D-Virg.), “USAID was established by an act of Congress, and it can only be disbanded by an act of Congress.”

Rubio notifies Congress of potential USAID 'reorganization' — Secretary of State Marco Rubio notified Congress on Monday that there could potentially be a reorganiztion of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), as the separate agency appears to have already been subsumed by the State Department. President Trump appointed Rubio as the acting administrator for USAID on Monday, and the secretary said in a statement that he notified Congress that a review of the agency’s foreign assistance activity is underway “with an eye towards potential reorganization.” The announcement came as Rubio is on diplomatic travel in Central America. “This is not about ending the programs that USAID does per se,” Rubio told reporters. “There are things that it does that are good and there are things that it does that we have strong questions about. It’s about the way it operates as an entity. And they are supposed to take direction from the State Department, policy direction. They do not.” Democrats have raised alarm and warned of legal challenges to Trump’s pursuit of either shutting down USAID or merging it with the State Department, saying the intention of the independent aid agency is “to ensure that we can deploy development expertise and U.S. foreign assistance quickly, particularly in times of crisis, to meet our national security goals.” Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) announced he would impose a blanket hold on all of Trump’s State Department nominees until efforts to shutter USAID are reversed. Rubio’s notification to Congress is another layer of fast-moving actions by the Trump administration that have essentially halted the work of the independent agency. Over the past two weeks, Trump issued an initial, blanket freeze on American foreign assistance; gave stop-work orders to nongovernmental organizations receiving funds; laid off or furloughed senior USAID staff; and shut down the agency’s separate website, moving information to the State Department’s website. USAID offices were closed on Monday and staff were told to work remotely. Tech billionaire and close Trump ally Elon Musk claimed on Monday that the president agreed the agency should be shut down and criticized it as a “criminal organization.” Two senior security USAID chiefs were reportedly put on leave after blocking access to classified material that Musk and individuals associated with his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) were trying to access, The Associated Press reported. Musk’s team later gained access to the information. Kate Miller, who serves on an advisory board for DOGE, said in a post on Musk’s social platform X that “No classified material was accessed without proper security clearances.”

‘We are terrified’: Elon Musk puts USAID through ‘wood chipper’ — The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is being gutted by tech billionaire Elon Musk’s cost-cutting operation in a shocking operation that launched over the weekend. Inn the wake of President Trump’s executive order freezing foreign assistance, USAID’s website has been taken offline, hundreds of contractors have been laid off and employees are being locked out of their accounts one-by-one without notice. Musk said early Monday that Trump “agreed” to shut down USAID, which for more than 60 years has administered billions of dollars of humanitarian and development assistance around the world. “We are terrified,” said one USAID employee, who was granted anonymity for fear of retribution. The employee said they woke up without access to internal systems, including their email, with “zero communication.” Personal services contractors, who lack the legal protections of government employees and make up about half of the agency’s workforce, started getting shut out of systems Sunday, according to two USAID employees. They also said some direct hires were being impacted. One described seeing their colleagues’ Google Chat images crossed out one-by-one Sunday evening, indicating their accounts were deactivated. Shortly after midnight, USAID employees received an email reviewed by The Hill that said their headquarters at the Ronald Reagan building would be closed Monday and instructing them to work remotely. Another USAID employee said their colleagues were being blocked from entering a second USAID office in southwest D.C. by men who identified themselves as part of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). They later stepped aside, the employee added. Musk, who leads DOGE, went on a tirade Sunday against the agency. “USAID is a ball of worms. There is no apple. And when there is no apple you just need to get rid of the whole thing. That’s why it’s got to go. It’s beyond repair,” Musk said early Monday on social platform X Spaces. He later posted, “We spent the weekend feeding USAID into the wood chipper. Could gone to some great parties. Did that instead.

USAID workers placed on administrative leave ‘until further notice’ Employees at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) are being placed on administrative leave with pay “until further notice,” according to letters reviewed by The Hill. Employees must be available by phone and email during business hours, according to the notice, which provides an email for them to contact “to end that.” The letters come after most USAID employees lost access to internal systems over the weekend as Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency put the agency through a “woodchipper.” One USAID employee said they felt “helpless” after receiving the letter. Another said they were “disappointed that our lawmakers in the majority seem complicit or at least tacitly approve.” One employee who lost access Monday said they had not received a copy of the letter to their personal email. “So once again, I’m left in the dark,” they said. The letter was sent by Pete Marocco, who Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly tapped Tuesday to run USAID. Neither USAID nor the White House immediately responded to requests for comment from The Hill and questions about how many USAID employees received these letters.

Republican blocks Senate resolution in support of USAID -- Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) blocked a resolution in the Senate that supported the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) as the agency undergoes turmoil via the Trump administration.Democratic Sen. Chris Coons (Del.) asked unanimous consent that the Senate agree to a resolution that affirmed USAID’s role in protecting the United States’ national security. Coons has more than 40 Democrats backing him on the bill. Risch, the chair of the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee, objected to the measure and noted hard choices must be made to reduce the national debt.“The idea of merging USAID and the State Department has been floated by nearly every administration since USAID was established by Congress in 1998,” Risch said on the Senate floor. “I’m supportive of the Trump Administration’s efforts to reform and restructure the agency in a way that better serves U.S. national security interests.”Risch said he was supportive of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s plan to integrate the agency under the State Department and said he plans to work alongside him in consultation during the process.In response, Coons highlighted the importance of the agency for the nation’s global standing and the aid it provides to various communities internationally. He also highlighted a point he and other lawmakers have presented over the last several days, which is that Congress has already appropriated funds for USAID, and it is now President Trump’s role to carry out that function.“Why should we bother coming to an agreement on appropriations here in the Senate, pass a law, send it to the president, he signs it, and then in the next Congress and the next president, they can shut it down and claw it back?” Coons questioned.The battle comes as officials from Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) have essentially shut down USAID. Several lawmakers have sounded the alarm about Musk’s influence over the federal government in the last several days.Coons said he is hopeful that there would be a bipartisan agreement on continuing to support USAID investment. Still, it’s unclear if that would happen because “the unelected leader of DOGE,” Musk, has called for the agency to be shuttered entirely.“My hope is that Secretary Rubio’s comments today on television about sustaining many of the critical functions of aid will win out, but I’m not confidence because it’s unclear to me who’s really driving this initiative,” Coons concluded.

USAID To Merge With State Department and Face Cuts - The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) will be merged into the State Department and will face significant cuts, CBS News reported on Monday. President Trump’s pause on foreign aid has upended USAID, which serves as a soft power arm of the US government and its intelligence agencies tomeddle in the affairs of countries across the world, including by funding opposition groups to foment dissent. USAID has been targeted by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and the Tesla CEO has suggested President Trump wants a complete “shutdown” of the agency. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said many of the functions of USAID will continue under the State Department, though he stressed the need for reform.Speaking to reporters in El Salvador, Rubio said that he was now the acting director of USAID. “My frustration with USAID goes back to my time in Congress. It’s a completely unresponsive agency; it’s supposed to respond to policy directives of the State Department, and it refuses to do so,” he said.“There are a lot of functions of USAID that are going to continue that are going to be part of American foreign policy, but it has to be aligned with American foreign policy,” Rubio added.The secretary also criticized USAID employees for resisting oversight efforts from DOGE. CNN reported that two senior USAID officials were suspended after refusing to let members of DOGE access the agency’s systems and files. On Sunday night, President Trump said USAID has been “run by a bunch of radical lunatics, and we’re getting them out, and then we’ll make a decision.”

Musk shocks lawmakers, setting himself on collision course -- Billionaire businessman Elon Musk is on a collision course with lawmakers on Capitol Hill who are starting to challenge his authority. Senate Republicans acknowledge they need to cut government spending, but Musk’s bold decision to lock federal workers out of the U.S. Agency for International Aid (USAID), which Musk called “a ball of worms” and a “criminal organization,” caught them by surprise. They are now questioning the basis of Musk’s authority to shutter an agency Congress funds annually through the appropriations bills for the State Department and foreign operations. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), a member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, said she has questions about whether President Trump’s authorization is enough to empower Musk to override Congress’s funding directives. “The president is suggesting that he has authorization. I think there is more than some question,” she said. Senate Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) said Musk or other senior administration officials need to notify Congress in advance before shuttering or reorganizing federal agencies. Up Next - Texas House Republican says US could use drones against cartels to 'save American lives' Collins said whether Musk had the authority to shut down USAID “is a very legitimate question.” By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates “There is a requirement in the law for 15 days’ notice of any reorganization. We clearly did not get that. We got the letter yesterday,” she said. Collins said the law “also calls for a detailed explanation of any reorganizations, renaming of bureaus, shifting of centers, and again we have not received that.” She said she would talk to fellow Appropriations Committee members “about our next steps.” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) warned that simply shutting down a federal agency such as USAID would violate the Constitution in a strict sense, but he argued former President Biden also pushed boundaries with aggressive uses of executive power. He said it “would be helpful” for Trump or Musk to get approval from Congress before ordering drastic changes at a federal agency. “At some point it’s going to require congressional action to have staying power,” he said. Other Republicans warned that the sudden closure of the nation’s chief foreign assistance agency would undermine U.S. diplomatic efforts in countries where China is trying to gain influence by building out local infrastructure. Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said foreign aid is necessary to match China’s efforts to expand its global influence. “I have felt for a long time that USAID is our way to combat the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, which is China’s effort to really gain influence around the world, including Africa, South America and the Western Hemisphere,” he told reporters in the Russell Senate Office Building. Wicker said “if there’s massive fraud” at the agency, “we need to know about that,” but he cautioned “we need an aid program to match the Chinese effort.” Wicker said he wasn’t sure what “emergency powers” Musk acted on, echoing the concerns of some colleagues. Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), who represents a major farm state, voiced his alarm that hundreds of millions of dollars in American-grown food aid will spoil because of the freeze on all U.S. foreign assistance. “I urge [Secretary of State Marco] Rubio to distribute the $340 million in American-grown food currently stalled in U.S. ports to reach those in need. Time is running out before this life-saving aid perishes,” he posted on social media. Republicans have been wary of crossing Trump on any issue, including those on which Musk has taken the stage. Some have defended the president’s decision to tap Musk to root out waste at federal departments and agencies. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) argued that Musk hadn’t “closed” USAID but instead paused its activity to review its programs. “I don’t think they’re closing an agency, but I do think they have the right to review funding and how those decisions are made and what priorities are being funded. I think that’s probably true of any administration when they come in,” he said.

USAID begins sending administrative leave notices ahead of expected shutdown - Employees at the U.S. Agency for International Development began receiving notices Tuesday that they are being placed on administrative leave, as the Trump administration moves forward with plans to apparently shutter the agency. USAID headquarters was closed on Monday and Tuesday, and workers were barred from entering the building by federal law enforcement and lost access to their email Monday afternoon. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters Monday that he is serving as acting administrator of the agency that oversees humanitarian aid and development in more than 120 countries. A memo obtained by Government Executive—sent from the government email address of Gavin Kliger, one of half a dozen protégés of Elon Musk, but ostensibly authored by USAID Acting Deputy Administrator for Policy and Planning Pete Marocco—informed USAID employees that they are being placed on “excused absence" immediately and indefinitely. “You will remain on administrative leave until otherwise notified,” the memo states. “While you are on administrative leave with pay, you must be available by telephone and email during normal business hours, as it may be necessary for agency officials to contact you.” The document instructs impacted employees to send their personal contact info to the agency. And employees could be called upon to return to work, meaning those put on leave must continue to request annual or sick leave during their stint on leave. “I’m saddened that my service with the agency has to end like this,” said a current USAID employee who received Tuesday’s notice. “For many years, I and many of my colleagues dedicated ourselves to saving lives and have served in complex and difficult contexts overseas. I worry about the millions of people around the world who rely on our assistance. USAID’s work is very critical and impactful, regardless of all the negative narrative that’s emerged in the past few days.” Several USAID workers reported being in limbo: by Tuesday night, they could not determine whether they had been put on leave, because their email access had already been revoked. The memo comes amid reports that the agency could put upwards of 14,000 USAID workers on paid administrative leave as the President Trump and Musk look to shutter the agency or fold it into the State Department. Democrats have decried the move as illegal—USAID was established due to an act of Congress—but were barred by Homeland Security Department officials from entering the building after a protest on Monday.CBS News reported Tuesday that Marocco directed the evacuation and closure of all of USAID’s overseas missions by Friday. A request for comment from the State Department Tuesday was met with an out-of-office reply. Kliger did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Trump House allies want frozen USAID funds used to deport illegal immigrants A group of House Republicans is pushing for Congress to reroute foreign aid funding frozen by President Donald Trump into enhanced deportation efforts of illegal immigrants in the U.S. Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., is unveiling his Restoring American Sovereignty Act on Thursday, backed by fellow House Freedom Caucus members Reps. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., and Tom Tiffany, R-Wis. "Americans were put last at nearly every turn during the Biden administration. This was evidenced by the criminal crossing crisis at our southern border and the wasteful distribution of taxpayer dollars by agencies like USAID," Ogles said. He said his bill would "utilize the USAID funding paused by President Trump to deport illegal aliens from the United States." Tiffany said the bill "ensures our tax dollars fund Americans' security" and called the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) an "international money laundering scheme." "America has spent billions of taxpayer dollars funding Democrats' pet projects in countries that despise us and everything we stand for," Biggs said. Trump paused most foreign aid for a period of 90 days to give his new administration time to evaluate what money going overseas aligns with his agenda. Rep. Andy Ogles is leading the bill, which is co-sponsored by Reps. Andy Biggs and Tom Tiffany. (Michael M. Santiago) He and Secretary of State Marco Rubio included carve-outs for emergency needs. Meanwhile, Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initiated a crackdown on USAID earlier this week. As of Friday, Feb. 7, nearly all of USAID's overseas employees will be put on administrative leave. Republicans have argued that USAID has long been mismanaged and that it was sending U.S. taxpayer dollars to LGBTQ initiatives and other social causes overseas. They have also accused the agency of stonewalling GOP oversight efforts. Democrats have heavily criticized the rollback, attacking Musk as an un-elected bureaucrat whose businesses also rely on government contracts. They've also argued that freezing USAID funding imperils critical initiatives like cancer and HIV research in Africa.

WikiLeaks: USAID Has Been Funding Over 6,000 Journalists Worldwide Across Nearly 1000 Platforms - Yesterday's report that the US government has been funding outlets such as Politico, the Associated Press, the BBC, and others raised more questions than it answered - though the obvious implication is that the US government has effectively been propping up regime-friendly media, which then peddles regime-friendly coverage - and spent years attacking independent outlets such as ZeroHedge, The Federalist, and many unlucky ones who have since been starved out of business. And while funding for Politico and others has come from all over the federal government - WikiLeaks, citing a RSF report, highlighted that USAID was funding over 6,200 journalists across 707 media outlets and 279 "media" NGOs, which includes 90% of the reportage out of Ukraine. USAID was funding over 6,200 journalists across 707 media outlets and 279 "media" NGOs, including nine out of ten media outlets in Ukraine. https://t.co/tLUoBT2GfN https://t.co/Siq2RJOXQfpic.twitter.com/LyaUFuq3He— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) February 6, 2025According to RSF, the Trump administration's freeze on foreign aid - roughly $268 million earmarked to fund "independent media and the free flow of information," has 'thrown journalism around the world into chaos.'Almost immediately after the freeze went into effect, journalistic organizations around the world that receive American aid funding started reaching out to RSF expressing confusion, chaos, and uncertainty. The affected organizations include large international NGOs that support independent media like the International Fund for Public Interest Media and smaller, individual media outlets serving audiences living under repressive conditions in countries like Iran and Russia.... USAID programs support independent media in more than 30 countries, but it is difficult to assess the full extent of the harm done to the global media. Many organizations are hesitant to draw attention for fear of risking long-term funding or coming under political attacks. According to a USAID fact sheet which has since been taken offline, in 2023, the agency funded training and support for 6,200 journalists, assisted 707 non-state news outlets, and supported 279 media-sector civil society organizations dedicated to strengthening independent media. The 2025 foreign aid budget included $268,376,000 allocated by Congress to support “independent media and the free flow of information.”Note the recurring use of the term 'independent media.' Of course, the RSF report, and another from the Columbia Journalism Review are sounding the alarm over the 'silencing of independent media' around the world.

Politico Pleads Innocent, Claims Tens Of Millions In Govt. Subscriptions Totally Normal On Tuesday, staffers at Politico were notified that a 'technical error' had prevented paychecks from going out. Many joked that this had something to do with the Trump administration putting a freeze on USAID funding. Staff at Politico did not get paid for the latest pay period. The company just sent several emails to employees saying it believes there was a technical error, and is looking into how to fix the issue. pic.twitter.com/PYcWYdbrEC And while there's no evidence the two are linked, the suggestion prompted internet sleuths to look into Politico's sources of funding. What they found was absolutely shocking.According to government spending tracker website USASPENDING.gov, Politico - which laundered the Hunter Biden '51 intel officials' propaganda during the 2020 election - received up to $27 million (and by some counts $32 million) from various US agencies during the Biden years.In one instance, roughly $500,000 was spent on 37 Politico 'pro' subscriptions.Of note, Politico was sold to German media giant Axel Springer (which also owns Business Insider) for $1 billion in 2021, meaning US taxpayer dollars have been flowing to the German media giant to prop up their US propaganda rags. Update (1344ET): During Wednesday's White House presser, spox Karoline Leavitt confirmed that Politico has been getting 'more than $8 million taxpayer dollars,' which has 'gone to essentially subsidizing subscriptions.' Watch: Update (1545ET): Politico has responded to the controversy, writing in a Thursday memo that they have "never received any government funding — no subsidies, no grants, no handouts. Not one dime, ever, in 18 years," but that $27 million in government subscriptions to "Politico Pro" is simply "a transaction," akin to the government buying "research, equipment, software and industry reports."Wait till you folks read some of these profoundly unique (almost literally) priceless articles behind the Politico Pro paywall.,, Hunter Biden's lucrative art sales were also a transaction, totally not buying influence. Perhaps he should have started a subscription service for monthly art deliveries?

Report: Trump To Keep Only 294 Out of 10,000 USAID Employees - The Trump administration will only keep 294 out of 10,000 employees of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) as part of an overhaul of the agency, Reuters reported on Thursday.Sources familiar with the situation told Reuters that some employees have already begun receiving termination notices. Out of the 10,000 employees, about 60% are based out of the United States.The pause on foreign aid and overhaul of USAID has highlighted the agency’s role in destabilizing activities across the world, which includesadvancing regime change efforts by funding opposition groups and media outlets in other countries.USAID is being brought under the State Department and will be overseen by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said the US will continue providing foreign aid but only programs it can “defend.”“The United States is not walking away from foreign aid. It’s not. We’re going to continue to provide foreign aid and to be involved in programs, but it has to be programs that we can defend. It has to be programs that we can explain,” Rubio told US diplomats on Wednesday.Rubio said the administration is working on identifying programs that would be exempted from the 90-day pause on foreign aid. The only initial exemptions were military aid to Israel and Egypt. US weapons shipments to Ukraine have been resumed after a brief pause, according to anotherReuters report.

Scattered To The Winds: Entire CIA Gets Trump Buyout Offer, USAID Employees Placed On Leave Worldwide --With the Trump administration in its third week of its blitzkrieg against the deep state - led by Elon Musk and his genius-level team of DOGE employees, the Wall Street Journal reports that the entire Central Intelligence Agency has been offered the same 'buyouts' as every other member of the federal government. The Central Intelligence Agency offered buyouts to its entire workforce Tuesday, in what officials said is a bid to bring the agency in line with President Trump’s priorities, including targeting drug cartels. The CIA appeared to be the first intelligence agency to tell its employees that they can quit their jobs and receive about eight months of pay and benefits as part of Trump’s push to downsize the federal government. The offer last month made to most civilian federal agencies exempted some categories of federal workers, including those with national security roles.And given the theme of the new administration seems to be 'we can do this the easy way, or the hard way,' we suspect mass layoffs will follow for those who don't take the deal.According to a CIA spokeswoman, the move was part of an effort to "infuse the agency with renewed energy." Whatever that means. In other news, thousands of employees from deep state slush-fund USAID will be placed on leave starting Friday night, in a worldwide order that would affect all "direct-hire personnel" except those on "mission-critical functions, core leadership and specially designated programs." In a Tuesday statement on its website, USAID said that it would work with the State Department (which it was recently folded into) to arrange and pay for return travel for its various personnel stationed around the world within the month. Those employees who fall under the exception will be notified by Noon EST on Thursday.

Legal questions surround Trump's federal worker resignation offer : NPR Federal employees are receiving additional communications that appear designed to entice them to accept the Trump administration's "Fork in the Road" resignation offer, despite mounting questions about whether the offer is legal. While the initial offer to federal employees to resign by Feb. 6 and retain their pay and benefits through Sept. 30 came directly from the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM), some of the latest guidance is coming from agency leaders, further sowing confusion over what's to be believed.Employment attorneys and union representatives emphasize that OPM, which handles many human resource matters for federal workers, lacks the authority to promise paid leave for government employees other than its own.OPM acknowledges as much in a fact sheet on its own website. It states "OPM does not regulate the use of administrative leave. This authority rests with each agency head."Moreover, agency budgets are controlled by Congress, not OPM, and many agencies will run out of money on March 14 if Congress doesn't approve a new budget or pass another continuing resolution."Congress has the power of the purse. The power of the executive to spend money is limited by the appropriations approved by Congress and signed by the president," wrote Donald Kettl, professor emeritus at the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, in an email. "The executive branch cannot legally now obligate the government to make payments past March 14. An offer for paid leave past that point is unlawful." The law Kettl points to, called the Anti-Deficiency Act, states "no officer or employee of the Government may create or authorize an obligation in excess of the funds available, or in advance of appropriations unless otherwise authorized by law."In a blog post, Robert Reich, former secretary of labor under President Bill Clinton, urged federal workers to reject the resignation offer, tying it directly to billionaire Elon Musk, who is seen as the architect of the "Fork in the Road" deal."Don't accept Elon's offer," he wrote. "Congress could declare the entire offer illegal — which it is. Then where would you be?"Even so, the language in some of the latest communications appears to ignore the law while offering reassurance to federal workers weighing their options."On behalf of the National Science Foundation, I am informing you that the offer is valid, lawful, and will be honored by NSF," wrote Wonzie L. Gardner, chief human capital officer for the National Science Foundation, in an email sent Thursday that was described to NPR by federal employees not authorized to speak on the matter.The email went on to assure employees who choose to accept the offer that they would not be let go before Sept. 30, even though the original "Fork" memo included no such promise."If you accept the deferred resignation offer, you will receive pay and benefits through September 30, 2025, and will not be subject to a reduction-in-force (RIF) or other premature separation," Thursday's email said.Friday morning, employees at the U.S. Department of Agriculture received a nearly identical email, sent by USDA Chief of Staff Kailee Tkacz Buller, a Trump appointee, according to screenshots obtained by NPR.Additionally, the emails from some agency leaders tell employees that except in rare cases, those who resign can take a second, nongovernment job "during the deferred resignation period," a claim also made in the FAQ posted to OPM's website and shared with employees by multiple agencies."We encourage you to find a job in the private sector as soon as you would like to do so," the FAQ reads. "The way to greater American prosperity is encouraging people to move from lower productivity jobs in the public sector to higher productivity jobs in the private sector."

Federal employees confused, angered by Trump’s offer to quit | CNN Politics — President Donald Trump’s offer to most federal employees to resign now and be paid through September stunned the workers who received it – angering some, confusing many and raising questions about whether the offer is even legal. When a US Department of Agriculture staffer based in Mississippi received the deferred resignation offer on Tuesday, they read through it, laughing because it was just “nonsensical,” and then deleted it. “I’ve got my whole entire life invested in the federal government,” said the staffer, who also spent time in the military. “I’m not going to throw everything away.” Across the United States, multiple federal workers who spoke with CNN said they weren’t willing to sacrifice benefits beyond their salaries – including health and retirement benefits and student loan forgiveness – not to mention careers. They requested their names not be used for fear of retaliation. Federal workers’ unions quickly lashed out at the deferred resignation offer, stressing that it was not a buyout and that the administration might not be able to follow through on it. “Employees should not take the Program at face value,” the American Federation of Government Employees, the largest federal workforce union, told members about the offer in an FAQ on Wednesday. The communications from the Office of Personnel Management are “riddled with inconsistencies and uncertainties. It is also unclear whether OPM has the legal authority to support the Program or its alleged benefits, and the eligibility criteria are vague.” The union warned that the offer contains no guarantees that employees whose resignations are accepted “will receive the benefits that the Program purports to offer.” And it noted that the federal government is only funded through mid-March, so the Trump administration cannot make payment promises beyond then until Congress passes a spending bill. The backlash prompted the Trump administration to send another email to employees on Friday, this time coming from their individual agencies. It reinforced, in underlined text, that the offer is “valid, lawful, and will be honored by” the respective departments. Also, those who accept the offer will “not be subject to a reduction-in-force or other premature separation,” will not be expected to work during the roughly eight-month period (with rare exceptions) and can take a non-governmental job during that time. Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller said, without evidence, that “a significant number of federal workers have accepted the buyout offer” during a gaggle with reporters at the White House Friday. But workers CNN interviewed are not jumping at the chance to jump ship. The OPM email, which contained the subject line “Fork in the Road,” had many similarities to an email that X, then called Twitter, sent to its employees days after Elon Musk took over the company. Musk now leads Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, which has been tasked with shrinking the federal workforce as one of its mandates.The offer came as Trump seeks to reshape the federal workforce – including reducing its size, replacing career workers with political appointees, wiping away some civil service protections, ending diversity efforts and more. Some 2.4 million people work for the federal government, not including postal workers, who are not eligible for the package. Also excluded are military personnel and those in positions related to immigration enforcement and national security, among others. Those who qualify have to decide by February 6.A US Department of Agriculture employee, who is nearing retirement, said they won’t take Trump up on the incentive and don’t expect anyone else in their field office in Illinois to, either.“They’re trying to change everything overnight,” said the employee. “They’re trying to reinvent the government, and I don’t think they can do it.”“I retire by 60. I have my 25 years. I’m vested. I’m not going anywhere,” they continued.

Trump slaps retirement option onto resignation plan - The Trump administration is trying to entice more federal employees to buy into the president’s mass resignation scheme by adding an early retirement option to those eligible.Last week, the 2 million strong federal workforce received an email from the Office of Personnel Management saying if they decided to resign by Feb. 6, they could go on paid leave until Sept. 30. President Donald Trump’s offer has sparked widespread confusion and fierce pushback from Democratic lawmakers and federal unions, who have advised civil servants not to step down. Now, in another email sent Sunday night, OPM said federal employees can take part in the government’s early retirement program — known as Voluntary Early Retirement Authority, or VERA — if they decide to resign. That has only added to the uncertainty. The president’s push to downsize the federal workforce and allure more employees into his resignation plan has fostered confusion and fierce pushback. “Every FAQ email that gets sent out changes the offer,” said an EPA employee granted anonymity to speak candidly during a stressful time. “It’s like they are making it up as they go along.”

EPA confirms retirement option for Trump’s resignation plan - EPA will offer early retirement to those staffers who are eligible and choose to join President Donald Trump’s mass resignation scheme.The agency said in an internal email obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News that it had received Voluntary Early Retirement Authority, or VERA, from the Office of Personnel Management. That will allow some EPA employees to retire early after lowering limits for age and length of service.“These employees are only approved to receive VERA if they accept the deferred resignation offer by February 6, 2025,” said the email, which was sent Monday and signed by the Office of the Administrator.Those who are 50 years old with at least 20 years of service or at any age with at least 25 service years can retire under the program.

EPA tells 1,000 employees they could be fired ‘immediately’ More than 1,000 employees at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were notified last week that they may be subject to immediate firing, according to an email obtained by The Hill. The email, sent Wednesday by EPA mission support official Kimberly Patrick, notifies impacted employees that they are “likely on a probationary/trial period.” “As a probationary/trial period employee, the agency has the right to immediately terminate you,” the email says. Nicole Cantello, president of the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) Local Local 704, which represents EPA employees in the Midwest, said that more than 1,000 employees nationwide received the email. Cantello said she fears that this is a “prelude” for firing newer workers who have less than a year of federal service. “We’re really concerned, deeply concerned, that the next step will be removing these employees,” she said. The email comes after about 2 million federal employees received offers for a “buyout” to leave government work. The EPA’s website says that it employs more than 15,000 people. Cantello said she feared that between the buyout and the potential dismissal of newer staffers, the agency could lose one-tenth of its personnel, which would “decimate the agency.” “These people work on things like getting the lead out of pipes or enforcing environmental laws like the Clean Water Act and the Clean Air Act. They work on things like Brownfields, which turn contaminated land into usable land. They work on Superfund sites, which cleans up toxic pollution,” she said. “American people will really suffer if we don’t keep these people on the clock,” she added.

Zeldin: Anyone who isn’t ‘committed to’ Trump’s directives shouldn’t be at EPA - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin said Friday that anyone who is uncommitted to carrying out President Trump’s directives may not belong at the agency.“I don’t believe that anyone should be here at EPA who is not committed to the agency mission and the lawful directives coming from the duly elected president of the United States,” Zeldin told reporters.However, he also said he valued people who may have different opinions on how to best carry out Trump’s policies. “I love hearing a diversity of view and thought on decisions that we have to make here ithin the agency,” Zeldin said. “When a lawful directive comes from the president of the United States, any president of the United States, to have an agency achieve a goal within a deadline, there are oftentimes many different ways to get that done,” he added.Zeldin, who was confirmed to lead the EPA on Wednesday, also predicted that there will be “a headcount reduction in agencies all across the federal government.” “For us, we have to closely monitor who is deciding to stay and who’s deciding to go, and making sure that we’re filling all of our most important positions with urgency,” he added.His comments come after the Trump administration sent a memo to federal employees offering buyouts if they do not wish to return to work. It also comes after Trump has indicated that he could use a tool called “Schedule F” to make it easier to fire career officials.Opponents of doing so have expressed concerns that such cuts could result in a “brain drain” at science agencies like the EPA.

Democrats denied access to EPA during attempt to meet with DOGE officials A group of Congressional Democrats said they were denied entry to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) after attempting to meet with Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) officials and the agency’s administrator, former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.). Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), along with Reps. Paul Tonko (D-N.Y.) and Yassamin Ansari (D-Ariz.), tried to enter EPA’s headquarters in Washington on Thursday but were turned away. “We were just denied entrance into the EPA after asking to meet with a DOGE representative. More to come,” Markey posted on X. They said that several programs from the Inflation Reduction Act are not being distributed to grantees and warned that the potential reductions in funding could hamper the agency’s work of preserving clear water and air. “And right now, Elon Musk wants to turn EPA into every polluter’s ally – wants to take the environmental cops off the beat. That’s what this is all about,” Markey said during the Thursday press conference outside the EPA. “And we’re here today in order to make sure that we protect that right to clean water, to healthy communities, to clean air.” “We just had a couple of simple questions for them,” the Massachusetts lawmakers added. “Are they still freezing EPA funding for all of the clean air and clean water programs in our country? Are they blocking the important work, which the EPA does on a daily basis, to protect the people in our country?” Up Next - Federal judge pauses Trump federal worker buyouts Zeldin, who was sworn into the role just over a week ago, was in California on Thursday to assess recovery efforts after the devastating Los Angeles fires last month. Some grantees said they were unable to access funds last week after Trump’s executive orders went into effect. Since then, others have been able to gain access, but lawmakers on Thursday contend that some program’s funds are still frozen.

Musk provokes battle among Democrats over how to fight back - Democrats are grappling with how to take on Elon Musk and his unprecedented efforts to remake the federal government, with some favoring direct attacks on the tech mogul and others wondering if they should aim more at President Trump. Democrats have struggled to find their footing in the second Trump presidency, even as Trump has offered hundreds of thousands of federal employees buyouts and sought to eliminate entire parts of the government. Musk as been the point of Trump’s spear as he and his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) have dug into federal agencies, seeking access to payment systems and working to talk federal workers out of their jobs. Musk has openly relished his position in demolishing the U.S. Agency of International Development (USAID), saying over the weekend he was feeding it to the wood chipper instead of going to parties. Such efforts have made Musk an attractive boogeyman for Democrats still trying to pick themselves up from their November losses, all while dealing with the whiplash of Trump’s presidency. Yet a number of Democrats aren’t so sure their party isn’t making another mistake with its focus on Musk. Up Next - Federal judge pauses Trump federal worker buyouts “Why are we so distracted here?” said one top Democratic strategist. “Our singular focus should be on Trump. Not the shiny object Musk represents.” Sign up for the Morning Report The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Email address By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates “What’s our focus here? Winning back the House in 2026 or pointing at Musk while yelling, ‘You can’t do that!” Some Republicans see Musk as an effective lightning rod for Trump, a figure who takes the abuse in place of the new president. It’s a view shared by some Democrats as well. “Musk is a distraction,” another Democratic donor said. “We have to focus on the guy who is actually sitting in the Oval Office. Not the Hollywood version of this.”

Republicans from disaster-prone areas back Trump’s push to overhaul FEMA - Republican lawmakers, including those from disaster-prone areas, are backing President Trump’s calls to overhaul the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). “We need a FEMA that looks like somebody designed it on purpose, and that’s not what we have right now,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said this week. “It’s a mess, and it’s very inefficient.”“I welcome the president’s interest in trying to improve the process of delivering disaster aid, which is taxpayer money, to people who need it,” he said. Trump, who has been sharply critical of FEMA’s response to disasters during the Biden administration, indicated last week that he’d like to revamp — if not get rid of — the agency.“I’ll also be signing an executive order to begin the process of fundamentally reforming and overhauling FEMA or maybe getting rid of FEMA,” he said. “I think, frankly, FEMA’s not good.”He also said he wants disaster response to be run at the state level. “FEMA is gonna be a whole big discussion very shortly, because I’d rather see the states take care of their own problems,” he told Fox News.“I love Oklahoma,” he said. “But you know what, if they get hit with a tornado or something, let Oklahoma fix it and then the federal government can help them out with the money.”Trump also issued an executive order establishing a FEMA review council that seeks to assess proposals to reform the agency.

Trump administration forces shutdown of critical public health websites - Last Wednesday, Charlez Ezell, the Trump administration’s Acting Director of the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM), issued an ominous memorandum to “Heads and Acting Heads of Departments and Agencies” demanding they take prompt actions to end all agency programs that were not in accordance with Trump’s fascistic executive order, “Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological truth to the Federal Government (Defending Women).” All agencies were instructed that they had to send a response they would comply with the draconian order by 5:00 pm Friday. Furthermore, they would have until 12:00 pm EST on February 7 to report on all steps taken to implement the guidance.These included a review of all programs, contracts and grants, and the termination of any that “promote or inculcate gender ideology.” Those investigators or employees whose position “involves inculcating or promoting gender ideology” were to be placed on immediate administrative leave. All documents, directives, orders and regulations that could be construed as promoting “gender ideology” were to be withdrawn. All training on and resources for such programs were to be immediately canceled and disbanded. The word “gender” is to be removed from all government forms and substituted with “sex,” while staff must remove all pronouns from their email communications. The memorandum also stipulated that “all outward facing media (websites, social media accounts, etc.) that inculcate or promote gender ideology” were to be taken down. This has led to numerous important websites going dark, including the erasure of entire public health datasets that are used by researchers to understand the social landscape and the determinants of health that impact communities across the US and internationally, under the fraudulent auspices that they contain or identify with terms that represent “gender ideology.” For instance, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued instructions to its staff that they had to retract or pause publication on any research manuscript irrespective of its consideration for publication in any medical or scientific journal. Any terms that included “Gender,” “Transgender,” “Pregnant People,” “LGBT,” “Transsexual,” “Non-binary,” “Assigned male at birth,” “Assigned female at birth,” “Biologically male” or “Biologically female” had to be scrubbed.Many webpages which include guidance for contraception, factsheets about HIV and transgender people, as well as information on surveys showing transgender students suffer from higher rates of bullying, depression and a broad assortment of social problems, have been taken down. The CDC was also forced to temporarily remove its data repository, data.cdc.gov, before bringing it up again with the caption: “CDC’s website is being modified to comply with President Trump’s Executive Orders.” For the first time in the CDC’s seven-decade history, the agency has not published the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report in over a week, underscoring the seriousness of the efforts by Trump to eviscerate public health in the US. Significantly, at least one of the reports in the publication was centered on the ongoing risk of H5N1 bird flu infection among veterinarians tending to sickened cows. Moving forward, one must question the veracity of the data that epidemiologists and public health experts have depended on to conduct their work on behalf of the population. Also, access to many important health-related issues for the public has been rescinded, leaving many in the lurch who are seeking objective information about their conditions or medical/social concerns.The deepening censorship imposed on the CDC and all agencies in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) takes place amid the tenth wave of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, as well as major surge of seasonal flu, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and norovirus. The danger has never been higher that bird flu could coinfect individuals with seasonal flu and potentially reassort genes, thereby developing the capacity for human-to-human transmission. In fact, for all we know such a dire event could be unfolding at present, with the American and world population kept totally in the dark. Beside the immediate impacts on the CDC and other public health agencies, the Associated Press listed missing pages seen on many other government websites. Although some have returned since being taken down, some have noted changes that attempt to comply with Trump’s dictates, including:

• National Park Services pages related to the internment of Japanese Americans, the Tuskegee Airmen and the Stonewall Uprising for gay rights have been affected.
• The State Department has removed the X gender marker and replaced “gender” with “Sex” on its online consular form. Tips for LGBTQIA travelers were altered.
• The US Census Bureau’s homepage was down and queries on topic pages referring to gender identity and sexual orientation returned error messages.
• In line with Trump’s firing of 17 inspectors general and independent government watchdogs, reports by the Intelligence Community Inspector General have been erased from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s website.
• The Bureau of Prisons webpage has eliminated the term “Inmate Gender” and the statistics of the number and characteristics of transgender people are no longer available.
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the US Armed Forces to end recognizing identity months that celebrate Black History, Women’s History, Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage, National Hispanic Heritage, National Disability Employment Awareness and National American Indian Heritage.

Massive censorship escalation at CDC. Trump Administration now choosing the public health data you can see. - Jeremy Faust, MD - Day 12 of President Trump’s attack on the public health infrastructure of the United States was focused on data. All day, various observers reported that numerous CDC websites containing everything from epidemiological data to guidelines for the treatment of deadly diseases had been taken offline. Here’s a rundown of what happened, and why it matters.President Trump’s screed about gender and DEI has forced the CDC to purge a wide array of public health resources. The scope of this purge is particularly chilling, going well beyond any interpretation limited to the President’s stated rationale of “defending women.” To understand how far Trump went in his first-rate foray into third-world censorship, let’s look at a simple example: contraception. It’s difficult to understand why the administration would take down websites that clinicians use to select birth control after a recent pregnancy. But, indeed, that’s what it did on Friday. So what? Choosing postpartum contraception sounds easy enough, right? Well, guess what? It’s not. There are many options, including some absolutely unacceptable ones for patients with heart disease, sickle cell anemia, lupus, and an array of other conditions including organ donor recipients. The list goes on. In fact, even choosing to breastfeed means that certain contraceptive options are perfectly acceptable while others are exceedingly risky. It’s too much information for any expert to keep straight which is why the CDC developed easy-to-use charts for clinicians to use. At the moment, though, your government has decided to take those charts offline, scrubbed (dead link as of 1/31/25 at 10pm) from the internet on Friday. Here’s the chart, archived and published on Substack by Jessica Valenti: Cdc Birth Control Chart (archived) 618KB ∙ PDF file DownloadFortunately, Valenti’s Substack has links to a number of archived CDC sites containing useful treatment guidelines, updated information on populations who benefit from pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV/AIDS, and other data and helpful tools that your government shielded your precious lil eyes from seeing last night. Other axed sites include those with information on preventing HIV and one listing foods to avoid during pregnancy. The name of the latter resource: “Safer Food Choices for Pregnant People.” Oh, no! Someone said people instead of women. Someone better send in the National Guard before anybody flushes the wrong toilet.Why did they do this? Indeed, likely because the website (or an adjacent one) referred to “pregnant people” instead of “pregnant women,” which, according to their own reckoning, thou shalt not do—The horror! (Have you noticed how thin-skinned and petty Trump World is?) The moral panic around this would be remotely credible if President Trump didn’t show a genuine predilection for people who are actually dangerous to women. They’re offended by demographics. Also, data resources related to race or ethnicity are seemingly verboten. While some of these resources are not relevant to clinical practice today (but again, some are), it’s chilling that the administration censored webpages like the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System and the Social Vulnerability Index While these are useful research tools, the latter would be important if another pandemic were to occur, because it would help officials and other public health experts know where to send resources. Per an HHS website (where the link to the data itself is broken), “Social vulnerability refers to the resilience of communities when confronted by external stresses on human health, stresses such as natural or human-caused disasters, or disease outbreaks. Reducing social vulnerability can decrease both human suffering and economic loss. ATSDR's Social Vulnerability Index uses U.S. census variables at tract level to help local officials identify communities that may need support in preparing for hazards, or recovering from disaster.”….A disaster like a fire or an extreme weather event influenced by climate change—another forbidden topic that fell victim to the purge, by the way.A page titled "Efforts to Address Racism as a Fundamental Driver of Health Disparities” was also blocked, which I found disturbing considering the documented disparities that have occurred this century (and worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic) that my colleagues and I reported (as did others)—which reflect biological differences stemming from societal factors (as opposed to genetics). One way to ignore a problem is to try to pretend it doesn’t exist. (A bunch of federal agencies banned any mention of Black History Month, which starts today. How fitting.) Censorship, apparently, is the mechanism of choice in this administration. The power grab gets worse. Even if you believe President Trump’s election was a mandate to rethink or tone down DEI and LGBTQ+ issues in the public discourse (which I think is a stretch), there’s absolutely no reason for your government to shut down CDC.Data.Gov, as it did on Friday evening. That repository contains much of the information that powers the Inside Medicine Respiratory Virus Dashboard (plus information we present on hospital capacity in each state). But they did it anyway. Fortunately, we updated most of the dashboard before those jerks scrapped the source data, although some data are missing and other data were updated after we did our first pass but are now offline so we can’t get them. This is critical information.They even removed the CDC’s vaccine recommendations, en masse. Think about what this means.Perhaps all of this will be temporary. Perhaps you think I am overreacting. Maybe I am. But it should bother us that a few ideologues in the White House seemingly hold all the power here. They can probably extend their regime of censorship as long as they’d like, or at least curate public health content to match their personal beliefs.Remember, if they merely wanted these websites to be updated to reflect their preferred language on a variety of health topics, they could do that on a reasonable timetable, without shutting down websites and depriving clinicians and the public access to information they need in the clinic right this minute (like vaccine recommendations). The Wall Street Journal found that over 1,000 CDC, NIH, or HHS websites had been blocked. So, part of what concerns me is the wide berth they took here. Speaking of “they,” they probably banned that word too. Good thing I’m not a federal employee. Here's hoping the blackout will be temporary, as some of the shuttered websites promise. But do you trust these people to keep their word?

Removal of pages from CDC website brings confusion, dismay - Several pages on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website remain offline today amid a move by the Trump administration to remove all language related to gender identity and LGBTQ issues from government communications. According to social media posts from researchers and journalists, pages on the CDC website started to disappear late last week, with searches producing the message "The page you're looking for was not found." Among the many pages that remain down are Health Disparities Among LQBTQ Youth, Interim Clinical Considerations for Use of Vaccine for Mpox Prevention, and Fast Facts: HIV and Transgender People. Pages containing data from the CDC's Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System are also unavailable, as is the Health Equity Guiding Principles for Inclusive Communication page. A page containing vaccine recommendations and guidelines from the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) was also unavailable for a time late last week but is now back online. The moves are linked to an executive order issued by the Trump administration that stated the federal government will only recognize an individual's "immutable biological classification" as either male or female and that gender identity cannot be recognized as a replacement for sex. The order calls for all agencies to "remove all statements, policies, regulations, forms, communications, or other internal and external messages that promote or otherwise inculcate gender ideology, and shall cease issuing such statements, policies, regulations, forms, communications or other messages." A subsequent memo from the Office of Personnel Management called on the heads and acting heads of departments and agencies to "Take down all outward facing media (websites, social media accounts, etc.) that inculcate or promote gender ideology" by 5pm, January 31.Over the weekend, a note was added to the CDC website that states, "CDC's website is being modified to comply with President Trump's Executive Orders."In a joint statement, the heads of the Infectious Diseases Society of America and the HIV Medicine Association said the removal of HIV- and LGBTQ-related resources from the CDC's website "is deeply concerning and creates a dangerous gap in scientific information and data to monitor and respond to disease outbreaks.""Access to this information is crucial for infectious diseases and HIV health care professionals who care for people with HIV and members of the LGBTQ community and is critical to efforts to end the HIV epidemic," said IDSA President Tina Tan, MD, and HIVMA Chair Colleen Kelley, MD, MPH. "This is especially important as diseases such as HIV, mpox, sexually transmitted infections and other illnesses threaten public health and impact the entire population. Timely and accurate information from the CDC guides clinical practice and policies, which are essential for controlling infections and safeguarding health."The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America, in a message shared in an email and on social media, said it joins IDSA in calling for transparency and the protection of science-driven public health policies."The removal of HIV- and LGBTQ-related resources from the websites of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other health agencies takes us further away from making all America healthy," the organization said. "Removing this guidance creates a critical gap in scientific information and puts these patients at risk as it relates to infection prevention and appropriate antibiotic use." In related news, Jeremy Faust, MD, reported in his Inside Medicine newsletter on Substack that the CDC has instructed its scientists to retract or pause the publication of any research manuscript being considered by any medical or scientific journal. According to a CDC email reviewed by Faust, the order was to ensure that those manuscripts do not include now-forbidden terms, such as "gender, transgender, pregnant person or pregnant people, LGBTQ, transsexual, nonbinary, assigned male or female at birth, and biologically male or biologically female." Faust reports the order applies to previously submitted manuscripts under consideration and those accepted but not yet published.Meanwhile, it's unclear if the pause on communications from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and all agencies within the department, including the CDC, Food and Drug Administration, and the National Institutes of Health, remains in effect. A January 21 memo from HHS Acting Secretary Dorothy Fink, MD, stated the pause was through February 1. Among the many publications affected by the pause is the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,which includes case reports on infectious disease outbreaks and epidemiologic studies. Traditionally published weekly, MMWR has not been issued for the past 2 weeks. Also affected are the CDC Health Alert Network (HAN) advisories, which inform clinicians and public health officials about urgent public health issues. The last HAN advisory was posted on January 16. An email to HHS seeking an update on the communications pause was not returned.

US health expert flying 'absolutely blind' as federal health data vanishes -- President Donald Trump's end of diversity, equity and inclusion language in federal agencies has caused U.S. health data to be removed or not be updated. Medical experts warn that the losses, even in areas like flu and COVID tracking where DEI isn't central, make it harder to manage outbreaks and fix health disparities. "When they take that data away, we're absolutely blind," said Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association. "The true impact is more people get sick and more people die." On Monday, a message on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention read: "CDC's website is being modified to comply with President Trump's Executive Orders." The agency instructed its scientists to retract or pause any research manuscript under review by medical or scientific journals, not just its own publications, Inside Medicine reported. The CDC didn't respond to a request for comment. Outside the agency, a group of scientists began archiving the CDC website and organizing searchable links on GitHub, with plans to add missing datasets. After learning of the restrictions from a journalist, one participant started downloading key reports on flu surveillance and disease tracking. Others did the same, hoping to preserve critical information. Web pages tracking flu cases and HIV statistics were among those taken down or frozen. Some datasets have been edited and re-posted with DEI references removed. One dataset on COVID-19 vaccine coverage for "pregnant persons" now describes coverage for "pregnant women." CDC websites are also eliminating the term "gender" to comply with the executive order. As of Monday morning in Washington, 1,362 datasets were available on the CDC website, compared with 1,508 in December, according to the Internet Archive. It remained unclear how long the federal health websites will be down. It's not uncommon for the number of datasets hosted by government agencies to fluctuate over time. It's also normal for a new presidential administration to put its own stamp on government goals. But the sheer number of disabled and stalled data sites took health officials aback. "The removal of critical health information from governmental public health sites is chilling and puts the health of the public at risk," said Richard Besser, a former acting director of the CDC. "While it is natural for administrations to differ in terms of policies, it is highly unusual and should be unacceptable to hide scientific information." HIV doctors were among the most concerned. "It is hard to even put into words how essential this information is for us to take care of people," said Colleen Kelley, an infectious disease doctor at Emory University and chair of the HIV Medicine Association. She said the CDC data was "the most comprehensive website we have," and she now must rely on data backed up by researchers. Holden Thorp, editor-in-chief of the Science family of academic journals, said demands that CDC scientists rescind any unpublished papers that violate the executive order is unprecedented in the U.S. "We see that frequently in other countries where there are scientists who are being threatened by their governments, but we never expected to see that in the United States," Thorp said. Medical professionals and the general public visit federal websites to get authoritative, up-to-date information about a wide range of health topics. These websites include datasets used in research. They reveal trends in disease outbreaks. And they tell scientists what populations are most at-risk. For example, the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, a survey that monitors young people for health threats like HIV infection and alcohol use, has been taken down. Among the survey's dozens of questions, at least two explicitly asked about sexual and gender identity. The Trump administration has also made private several YouTube videos hosted by the Office of Women's Health. The topics included ovarian cancer, menopause, osteoporosis and sexually transmitted diseases, according to an email viewed by Bloomberg News. A funding page for the Office of Research on Women's Health was also taken down. "If we don't have any information about queer health or information about women's health, do they even exist? Are there even any problems?" said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist and research scientist at the University of Saskatchewan. Eileen Barrett, president-elect of the American Medical Women's Association, said she was "gravely concerned" about the removal of information about women's health from federal websites. "The science shows us that there are sex and gender differences in disease processes, treatment effectiveness, and experiences with the health care system," Barrett said. "The removal of information that acknowledges and seeks to address this suggests dangerous politicization of science and medicine." As the web pages disappeared, efforts sprang up to preserve crucial data. Some researchers and journalists worked to preemptively archive key CDC databases "at risk of deletion," according to science journalist Maggie Koerth, who created an online form to help coordinate the effort. Rasmussen said there are multiple online crowd-sourced efforts to publish archived CDC and National Institute of Health web pages, "something that we never imagined we would have to do." Some researchers are going to extreme lengths to gather data that was once easy to find. When she learned that the CDC's main data repository was taken down, Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, visited the websites of all 50 state health departments to aggregate flu activity herself. The painstaking process revealed that influenza-like illness has rebounded. Rivers analyzes disease outbreaks for her weekly newsletter, Force of Infection, which has about 40,000 subscribers. Many readers rely on her updates to protect themselves because they are immunocompromised or have other health conditions, Rivers said. "People use it to make decisions about their everyday lives, like whether to attend an indoor birthday party or wear a mask on a subway," said Rivers. "For flu, we need to know what's happening here and now, so a brief unavailability does have consequences."

BREAKING NEWS: CDC orders mass retraction and revision of submitted research across all science and medicine journals. Banned terms must be scrubbed. - The CDC has instructed its scientists to retract or pause the publication of any research manuscript being considered by any medical or scientific journal, not merely its own internal periodicals, Inside Medicine has learned. The move aims to ensure that no “forbidden terms” appear in the work. The policy includes manuscripts that are in the revision stages at journal (but not officially accepted) and those already accepted for publication but not yet live. In the order, CDC researchers were instructed to remove references to or mentions of a list of forbidden terms: “Gender, transgender, pregnant person, pregnant people, LGBT, transsexual, non-binary, nonbinary, assigned male at birth, assigned female at birth, biologically male, biologically female,” according to an email sent to CDC employees (see below).” The policy goes beyond the previously reported pause of the CDC’s own publications, including Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), which has seen two issues go unreleased since January 16, marking the first publication gap of any kind in approximately 60 years. Emerging infectious Diseases and Preventing Chronic Disease, the CDC’s other major publications, also remain under lock and key, but have not yet been affected because they are monthly releases and both were released as scheduled in January, prior to President Trump’s inauguration. The policy also goes beyond the general communications gag order that already prevents any CDC scientist from submitting any new scientific findings to the public. The edict applies to both any previously submitted manuscript under consideration and those accepted but not yet published. For example, if CDC scientists previously submitted a manuscript to The New England Journal of Medicine, The Journal of the American Medical Association, or any other publication, the article must be stopped and reviewed. (These are hypothetical, but are examples of major journals where CDC officials often publish.) How many manuscripts are affected is unclear, but it could be many. Most manuscripts include simple demographic information about the populations or patients studied, which typically includes gender (and which is frequently used interchangeably with sex). That means just about any major study would fall under the censorship regime of the new policy, including studies on Covid-19, cancer, heart disease, or anything else, let alone anything that the administration considers to be “woke ideology.” Meanwhile, chaos and fear are already guiding decisions. While the policy is only meant to apply to work that might be seen as conflicting with President Trump’s executive orders, CDC experts don’t know how to interpret that. Do papers that describe disparities in health outcomes fall into “woke ideology” or not? Nobody knows, and everyone is scared that they’ll be fired. This is leading to what Germans call “vorauseilender Gehorsam,” or “preemptive obedience,” as one non-CDC scientist commented. “I’ve got colleagues pulling papers over Table 1 concerns,” an official told me. (Table 1 refers to basic demographic information about the study populations included in research papers, rather than actual results.) Indeed, many studies include demographic information about sexual orientation. For example, a study describing mpox outcomes would likely include basic statistics in tables summarizing the percentage of patients who were vaccinated and were lesbian, gay, transgender, or otherwise. This information can be highly impactful during an outbreak, as it helps clinicians develop policies on who to vaccinate (given limited doses, as is the case with mpox), and even to whom scarce and limited supplies of tests and treatments should be offered to maximize benefits. It is not necessarily the case that researchers who have submitted articles but who have not yet received an official decision from a journal need to actively recall them, however. But if a journal sends an article back for revisions, the authors would at that point have to cleanse the document of any “problematic language.” Of course, at that point, the gag order already in place would halt any resubmission. What can and cannot go forward appears to require approval by a Trump political appointee, an explicit requirement for any public health communications under the Trump Administration’s gag order. That’s slowing many things down. At present, there is only one political appointee in the entire CDC, acting Director Susan Monarez (plus her personal assistant, who is not a scientist). It’s unclear if some decisions may be devolved to lower officials. For example, if a paper is pulled because it simply mentions gender, it is unknown if anyone other than Monarez possesses the authority to approve its resubmission. And yet, that seems to be the theme of the new administration: a few privileged individuals have been handed enormous authority, creating a backlog of decisions that may end up being fairly arbitrarily determined.

Some scientific and medical journal editors vow to resist new government censorship. Will they stand strong? - Yesterday, I interviewed the Executive Director of the American Public Health Association Dr. Georges C. Benjamin on Instagram for MedPage Today. You can watch our conversation on Instagram (I’ll post that here in the coming days as well.) During our conversation, Dr. Benjamin made some news when he said that the American Journal of Public Health (of which he is the publisher) will do all that it can to stand up to the Trump administration’s new regime of scientific censorship. In today’s Inside Medicine, I’ll summarize some of Dr. Benjamin’s comments and share insights from editors-in-chief at two other major medical journals. Plus, an update on the gag order that has suppressed CDC publications, communications, and alerts. We’ll find out why that matters and what to expect in the coming days. Lastly, some brief updates on OSHA, the RFK Jr.’s, HHS nomination, and USAID. As I reported over the weekend, CDC researchers have been instructed to scrub all active and future manuscripts of language deemed by the Trump administration to be offensive. Yesterday, during an interview with Dr. Georges C. Benjamin, the longtime Executive Director of the American Public Health Association, I asked how the organization’s scientific journal would handle any ensuing conflicts over banned language. Dr. Benjamin did not mince words. “We at the American Journal of Public Health [AJPH] have no interest in following the president’s prohibitions on language. It’s a First Amendment issue for us. It’s a science issue for us. So, we will publish things under our guidelines and under our ethical principles.” He said he hoped that non-governmental scientists would take the administration to court on First Amendment violation claims. What if, I asked, CDC scientists insist on terms that deviate from the AJPH’s established style guide? “What will tragically happen is that these papers will not get accepted….It's a collaborative process to publish something, and they can choose not to. That's fine." I also spoke about the issue with two other prominent editors. Dr. Paul Sax, editor-in-chief of Clinical Infectious Diseases, said, “We do have a usage guide that we’ll stick to. We can modify language at their request up to a point—this has happened already, with what I consider symbolic language changes only.” A third editor-in-chief for a respected medical journal within one of the major publication networks (and who spoke anonymously to maintain job security) was unsure of where things stood. “No formal guidance has yet been put into place, but internal management discussions and high-level stakeholder meetings are happening this week. An emergency meeting of the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors has apparently been called, but has not yet occurred. This editor had concerns about logistics, primarily around the notion of authors removing themselves from mixed groups (e.g., a collaboration of CDC and academic researchers) deep into the submission and publication process. Imagine a paper with 30 internationally distributed authors and having to obtain emails from each of them with explicit consent to remove a single CDC author.” The process can be arduous. “It will create a shit ton of extra work for editors, regardless,” the editor said. The gag order on public health communications was supposed to expire on February 1. Remember? That date came and went and the CDC, the NIH, and other agencies remain under a strict regime of Trump administration censorship. The reason is unclear, though one official I spoke to wondered whether the “pause” would remain in place until the Senate has confirms a Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. I communicated with several CDC officials and an official in a major county public health system (who works collaboratively with the CDC on various issues) yesterday to find out what to expect in the coming days. Here’s whatInside Medicine has learned:

• The CDC scientific journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report is expected to be published on Thursday, after a two-week hiatus, the first gap in its publication in decades. Whether the articles that were supposed to come out on January 23 and 30th will be released with a new tranche of papers is not known.
• A news release from the CDC Health Alert Network (HAN) is anticipated “sometime this week,” and is expected to provide information about viral hemorrhagic fever outbreaks (including an Ebola outbreak in Uganda). If I had to guess, the news release will fall into the “intermediate” category of HAN message types. CDC HAN messages are categorized as either “Alerts,” “Advisories,” or “Updates.” Alerts are reserved for matters of the highest level of importance. The most recent communiqué from CDC HAN was an “Update,” regarding genetic information related to H5N1 bird flu cases, published on January 16, during the Biden administration.

It’s worth noting that some federal health agency communications have been permitted while others have remained gagged. Some of the troves of CDC data taken offline last week line is back, but not all of it. The rationale behind these choices has often been unclear, but it is known that all approvals must be made by a political appointee (again, there’s literally one at CDC). I noticed that last week the FDA announced the approval of a new non-opioid painkiller. I couldn’t help but wonder, “what made this news worthy of an exception?” Liz Szabo connected the dots on Bluesky. What we were seeing was propaganda.

Trump turns up the heat on public broadcasters - President Trump and his allies are showing renewed vigor as they set their crosshairs on a longtime target for the right: public media. Recent moves by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and Republican lawmakers scrutinizing outlets like NPR and PBS over perceptions of liberal bias and taxpayer funding have highlighted the GOP’s willingness to use the power of the federal government to make life difficult for outlets Trump feels have treated him unfairly. Trump has telegraphed plans to take on NPR for years, celebrating an essay from a former editor who publicly accused the outlet of bias last year by vowing to give it no more public funding and describing it as a scam. With Trump now in the White House, allies have begun turning up the heat. “Trump has aggressively targeted these organizations and now has the administrative muscle to do something about it,” said Tobe Berkovitz, a Boston University professor who specializes in the media. The effort was punctuated last week in a letter from FCC Chair Brendan Carr to NPR and PBS leadership saying he planned to launch an investigation into member stations airing sponsorships. Up Next - Senate panel advances RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary on party-line vote Federal law prohibits public broadcasters from selling commercial sponsorships, but the outlets are allowed to broadcast public underwriting spots paid for by private donors. The majority of NPR’s and PBS’s funding comes from private sponsorships and user contributions. The outlets also receive a smaller portion of their financing from the federal government and member stations. NPR said in a statement to The Hill it is “confident any review of our programming and underwriting practices will confirm NPR’s adherence to these rules.” GOP lawmakers are putting a spotlight on NPR and PBS, too. On Monday, a House subcommittee on government efficiency headed by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) called on the outlets’ executives to testify at a hearing concerning “the systemically biased news coverage produced on behalf of federally funded radio and TV stations.” “Since its inception, NPR has collaborated with local nonprofit public media organizations to fill critical needs for news and information in America’s communities,” NPR said in a statement to The Hill. “We welcome the opportunity to discuss the critical role of public media in delivering impartial, fact-based news and reporting to the American public.” The latest targeting of public broadcasters comes as the White House has embraced more social and independent media platforms in lieu of mainstream news outlets, several of which the president decried or sued along the campaign trial. Some observers pointed to a line in Carr’s letter that questioned “why Congress should continue sending taxpayer dollars to NPR and PBS given the changes in the media marketplace since the passage of the Public Broadcasting Act of 1967.”

Trump: ’60 Minutes’ should be ‘immediately terminated’ after Harris transcript release --President Trump on Thursday suggested CBS News’s “60 Minutes” be taken off the air after the program released a transcript of an interview it aired last fall with former Vice President Harris amid a federal investigation into the broadcast.“CBS and 60 Minutes defrauded the public by doing something which has never, to this extent, been seen before,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social website. “They 100% removed Kamala’s horrible election changing answers to questions, and replaced them with completely different, and far better, answers, taken from another part of the interview.”Trump and his allies have for months argued the outlet edited the interview with Harris to cast her in a more positive light.The program shared a full unedited transcript of the Harris interview with the FCC this week and posted it online, saying it shows “consistent with 60 Minutes’ repeated assurances to the public – that the 60 Minutes broadcast was not doctored or deceitful.”“In reporting the news, journalists regularly edit interviews – for time, space or clarity,” the show said. “In making these edits, 60 Minutes is always guided by the truth and what we believe will be most informative to the viewing public – all while working within the constraints of broadcast television.”Trump is separately suing CBS News for $10 billion over the Harris interview, arguing in legal filings the news outlet engaged “partisan and unlawful acts of election and voter interference through malicious, deceptive, and substantial news distortion.”

Krugman accuses New York Times of ‘sanewashing’ Trump - Former New York Times columnist Paul Krugman knocked mainstream news outlets for softening coverage of President Trump. “The conventional news media are invaluable,” Krugman said during a Monday appearance on MSNBC. “I depend upon the reporting from my old employer and depend upon reporting from other news organizations. But there’s definitely sanewashing that goes on. Definitely an unwillingness to just flatly report the … we have crazy stuff.” Krugman left the Times late last year to launch an independent newsletter after more than two decades at the news outlet. Krugman said his new project allows him to be “able to talk about this stuff without trying to sound moderate and sensible, because these are not moderate and sensible times.” The journalist’s comments were first highlighted by Mediaite.Trump’s reelection last year came at a time when public polling shows widespread distrust of news outlets among American voters and amid new questions in the media about how best to cover the president. Krugman has been sharply critical of Trump in recent years over his economic policies, writing recently that his immigration agenda will “hobble” major industries like food production and construction.

Trump administration finalizing plans to shutter Education Department – The Trump administration is finalizing plans to dismantle the Education Department through an executive order that would build on the president’s campaign promise to hammer the longtime conservative target. The order — which President Donald Trump is expected to sign sometime this month, according to a White House official — was expected to lay out a two-part strategy for shuttering the agency, according to two people familiar with the plans and granted anonymity to discuss them. It would direct the department to craft a plan to wind down its functions using its existing administrative authority. But the order was also expected to call for the agency to inventory a complex set of laws needed to delegate the department’s powers to other agencies and then close the department, an acknowledgment that some of conservatives’ biggest desires for change hinge on congressional approval. Such an order would launch a complex initiative. Some conservatives concede they currently lack enough support for legislation to close the department and farm its core functions out to other federal agencies. While Trump has been vocal about closing the Education Department, the agency appears to have also drawn the attention of Elon Musk’s government efficiency operation, which picked apart the US Agency for International Development over the weekend. According to a third person granted anonymity to discuss sensitive information, representatives from the so-called Department of Government Efficiency were working at Education Department headquarters Monday and seeking access to agency records. A representative for DOGE did not respond to a request for comment. The Wall Street Journal first reported word of administration discussions about the executive order. Although the general thrust of Trump’s executive order is taking shape, the timing is a little awkward. The nomination hearing for Trump’s nominee to lead the department, billionaire pro wrestling magnate Linda McMahon, hasn’t yet been scheduled as her team waits for her financial disclosures and other paperwork to be cleared by the Office of Government Ethics. Once McMahon does face a Senate confirmation hearing, she will likely face even sharper questions on whether she thinks her agency-in-waiting should exist. There was debate among staff at the department that the executive order could put McMahon in a difficult position to answer questions about the president’s agenda, and to what extent she would execute a plan to eliminate the department, according to an individual in contact with Education Department officials. “Common sense tells me they won’t do that until the secretary is confirmed,” said another person familiar with the discussions who was granted anonymity to address sensitive information. “That’s partly politics, but there will be deadlines in that executive order,” the person said. “The secretary is going to need every day to meet those deadlines. To start the clock on her before she can start working on it, common sense tells me they wouldn’t do that to her.”

Trump preps order to dismantle Education Department as DOGE probes data - The Washington Post - President Donald Trump is preparing an executive order aimed at eventually closing the Education Department and, in the short term, dismantling it from within, according to three people briefed on its contents. The draft order acknowledges that only Congress can shut down the department and instead directs the agency to begin to diminish itself, these people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly about internal issues. That work is underway already. The new administration has been trying to reduce the workforce by putting scores of employees on administrative leave and pressuring staff to voluntarily quit. And roughly 20 people with Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency,” known as DOGE, have begun working inside the Education Department, looking to cut spending and staff, according to three people familiar with the situation and records obtained by The Washington Post. Advertisement At least some DOGE staffers have gained access to multiple sensitive internal systems, the people said, including a financial aid dataset that contains the personal information for millions of students enrolled in the federal student aid program. The DOGE probe, which began last week, is a prelude to a more dramatic effort to make good on one of Trump’s campaign promises: eliminating the Education Department altogether. A White House official confirmed that it is preparing for executive action later this month that will fulfill Trump’s campaign pledge to defund the department. Some Republicans have argued that it would be better to wait until after Trump’s choice for education secretary, Linda McMahon, appears before the Senate for her confirmation hearing. Scheduling has been held up as the government ethics office reviews her paperwork, a Senate aide said. Advertisement The expected executive order would not shut down the agency, as there is widespread agreement in both parties that doing so would require congressional action, the people familiar said. The Education Department was created by Congress, and only Congress can eliminate it. Such congressional action is unlikely, people in both parties say. Legislation would require a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate, meaning at least seven Democrats would need to support the plan, which observers say is inconceivable. A 2023 vote in the House to abolish the department, considered as an amendment to a parents’ rights bill, garnered 161 yes votes, but 60 Republicans joined every Democrat in voting no. The bill was defeated. “I would not hold my breath that [closing the department] would ultimately become law,” Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Michigan), chairman of the House Education Committee, said in an interview last month. He said he supports closing the agency but that such a plan does not have sufficient support in the Senate, so such legislation would not be his “highest priority” absent a plan from Trump to move a bill forward.

Elon Musk Issues Warning to Department of Education - Elon Musk has said President Donald Trump will "succeed" in shutting down the Department of Education. The billionaire made the comments on his social media platform X in response to a report in The Washington Post that said Trump was preparing an executive order to dismantle the department. There has been growing speculation about what actions Trump would take with the Department of Education after returning to office in January.The reported executive order comes as Musk's Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has launched a sweeping effort to cut programs, fire federal workers and slash government spending. In recent days the Trump administration and Musk have moved to eradicate the U.S. Agency for International Development, which is responsible for administering civilian foreign aid and development assistance worldwide."Reagan campaigned on ending the federal Dept of Education, which was created by Carter in 1979, but it was bigger when Reagan left office than when he started!" Musk wrote in a post on his social media platform X on Monday night."Not this time. President @realDonaldTrump will succeed."The draft executive order that Trump is preparing acknowledges that onlyCongress can shut down the Department of Education, so directs the agency to begin diminishing its staff and functions, the Post reported, citing three people briefed on it.The newspaper also reported that about 20 people with DOGE have begun working inside the department in a bid to cut spending and staff numbers, citing three people familiar with the situation and records.The Wall Street Journal reported the order being weighed would shut down functions that are not written explicitly into statute or move some to other departments. The newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, said the order would call for developing a legislative proposal to abolish the department.A White House official confirmed to the Post that it is preparing for executive action later in February that would fulfill Trump's pledge to defund the department.Dozens of employees at the department have been put on paid administrative leave, The Associated Press reported, citing labor union American Federation of Government Employees Local 252, which represents hundreds of workers in the agency.At least 55 employees received an email on Friday saying they were being put on leave because of Trump's executive order banning diversity, equity and inclusion programs in the federal government, the AP reported. However, Sheria Smith, president of American Federation of Government Employees Local 252, said the majority of the employees put on leave do not work in DEI initiatives and span all branches of the agency. Trump told Time magazine in December that he was planning a "virtual closure" of the Department of Education. Asked to elaborate, he said: "Well, you're going to need some people just to make sure they're teaching English in the schools... But we want to move education back to the states. "

How can Trump achieve campaign pledge to eliminate Dept of Education? Experts weigh in | Fox News -- As President Trump reportedly weighs his options for accomplishing his campaign promise of eliminating the Department of Education, experts spoke to Fox News Digital about what that process will look like and what hurdles the president will have to overcome. "The administration is right to push to eliminate the ineffective and unpopular Department of Education," Jonathan Butcher, Will Skillman Senior Research Fellow in Education Policy at The Heritage Foundation, told Fox News Digital shortly before the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump officials are mulling an executive order calling for a legislative proposal to get rid of the department. "One thing I’ll be doing very early in the administration is closing up the Department of Education in Washington, DC, and sending all education and education work it needs back to the states," Trump said in a 2023 campaign video. A White House official told Fox News Digital on Monday night that Trump plans to fulfill his campaign promise by reevaluating the future of the department. Butcher told Fox News Digital, "Congress should heed the call and advance policy to eliminate most of the agency's programs and spending while moving remaining programs to other federal agencies." "President Trump can declare that the Education Department’s powers are unconstitutional and request a memo from the Department of Justice to support such a position. The president could, conceivably, do the same for specific programs, the Higher Education Act, for example." "Another approach would be to relocate the agency someplace away from Washington, DC and require employees work in-person, 5 days per week," Butcher added. "The White House can still remove any non-essential, or non-exempt, positions in the meantime. Even this process would need congressional support to void union contracts." Butcher told Fox News Digital that even with these possible actions from Trump, the executive branch "still has to spend appropriations as required." "So, the best-case scenario remains that Congress considers a proposal to close the agency," Butcher said. "In the proposal, Congress should consider creating block grants for large spending programs such as Title I so that states have more autonomy over what is best for schools within their borders," Butcher explained. "And Heritage has proposed moving certain offices that we believe should remain to other agencies, such as the office of civil rights to the Department of Justice." Julian Epstein, longtime Democratic operative, attorney, and former chief counsel to the House Judiciary Committee, told Fox News Digital that Trump will "likely need an act of Congress" to eliminate the department since it is a statutory created agency unless he can "figure out how to do it through reconciliation." However, Epstein explained that eliminating the department could ultimately cause Trump headaches. "But Trump may want to think twice before he eliminates the department as it has important clubs to promote his agenda," Epstein said. "The department is the principal enforcement agency to protect women's sports, prevent discrimination through DEI quotas for favored groups, stop harboring antisemitism, and to address the rather blatant intellectually intolerant, partisan, anti Western ideological factories they have become. To do that, Trump might be well advised to keep the department of education and its core enforcement functions while scaling down its size." The DOE was established under former President Carter in 1979 when he split it from the Health and Human Services Department. It’s charged with regulating federal student aid funds and ensuring equal access to education, among other responsibilities.

Trump Blocks Cocks From Womens' Locks' -- He did it folks, no more penis'd women in women's sports, or locker rooms. While surrounded by a group of young girls - which would have triggered his predecessor into a predatory sniffing trance frenzy, President Donald Trump signed an executive order keeping men out of women's sports. Absolutely love this.He's so genuine."If you'd like to gather around me, I think I'm going to be okay. Secret Service is worried about them?" pic.twitter.com/5iNugErNge Remember when a trans boy raped a girl in a High School bathroom in Loudoun County, Virginia, then the school covered it up, and when her father came to give the school board hell - he was dragged out and arrested. And Biden's DOJ activated the FBI's counterterrorism division against concerned parents? We are putting every school receiving taxpayer dollars on notice: If you let men take over women's sports teams or invade your locker rooms, you will be investigated for violations of Title IX and risk your federal funding. President Trump Truth Social Post 04:23 PM EST 02/05/25 Normal people around the country applauded the move.

Trump announces plans to gut the Kennedy Center board and appoint himself chairman - President Donald Trump announced an aggressive plan Friday evening to gut the existing board of trustees at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and oust its chairman, billionaire philanthropist David Rubenstein, a remarkable move aimed at remaking the nation’s cultural center.Trump said he would be appointing himself as chairman of the board.“At my direction, we are going to make the Kennedy Center in Washington D.C., GREAT AGAIN. I have decided to immediately terminate multiple individuals from the Board of Trustees, including the Chairman, who do not share our Vision for a Golden Age in Arts and Culture,”Trump said in a post to Truth Social. “We will soon announce a new Board, with an amazing Chairman, DONALD J. TRUMP!” Trump has sought to reshape the use of executive authority since taking office last month, and this effort amounts to a striking and personal example of retribution aimed at political enemies. Rubenstein, the board’s current chairman, is an ally of former President Joe Biden.Trump’s announcement also dove directly into the culture wars as he called out the center’s programming.Trump continued, “Just last year, the Kennedy Center featured Drag Shows specifically targeting our youth — THIS WILL STOP. The Kennedy Center is an American Jewel, and must reflect the brightest STARS on its stage from all across our Nation. For the Kennedy Center, THE BEST IS YET TO COME!” Presidents appoint members to the board on a rolling basis. It was not immediately clear who would be impacted by the news.“The Kennedy Center is aware of the post made recently by POTUS on social media,” the center said in a statement. “We have received no official communications from the White House regarding changes to our board of trustees. We are aware that some members of our board have received termination notices from the administration.”The center acknowledged that its governing statute did not bar the new administration from replacing board members but noted, “This would be the first time such action has been taken with the Kennedy Center’s board.”CNN has reached out to several members who were appointed by Democratic presidents for comment and to a spokesperson for Shonda Rhimes, who serves as the board’s treasurer. Reached for comment Friday evening, one member of the board who was appointed by a Democratic president said they had not yet received any communication from the Kennedy Center about their status on the board. Current members appointed by Trump include Lee Greenwood, Paolo Zampolli, and Attorney General Pamela Bondi.Last week, the Kennedy Center’s president, Deborah Rutter, announced plans to step down at the end of the year. The board had started a search for her replacement and retained a headhunter. Choosing her successor, it appears, will fall to the president.

Duffy tells DOT to prioritize areas with high birth rates — Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy in a memo told the Department of Transportation (DOT) to prioritize communities that have higher birth and marriage rates. “To the maximum extent permitted by law, DOT-supported or -assisted programs and activities, including without limitation, all DOT grants, loans, contracts, and DOT-supported or -assisted State contracts, shall prioritize projects and goals that … mitigate the unique impacts of DOT programs, policies, and activities on families and family-specific difficulties, such as the accessibility of transportation to families with young children, and give preference to communities with marriage and birth rates higher than the national average,” reads the undated memo, which says it is effective immediately. The memo could impact, among many other programs, the Federal Transit Administration’s Capital Investment Grant, meaning investments in public transportation including commuter rail, light rail and bus transit. According to data released last year by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the U.S. birth rate had hit a new low after declining for the last 17 years. Duffy, a father to nine children, is one of just a few of President Trump’s Cabinet nominees to already be confirmed by the Senate. He released a series of orders last week aimed at getting DOT in line with the Trump White House’s priorities. “The American people deserve an efficient, safe, and pro-growth transportation system based on sound decision-making, not political ideologies. These actions will help us deliver on that promise,” Duffy said. He’s also moved to enact Trump’s cutbacks on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives in hiring at the department.

Senate confirms fracking CEO Chris Wright to lead Energy Department -- The Senate on Monday confirmed Chris Wright, the CEO of fracking company Liberty Energy, to lead the Energy Department. The vote was 59-38. Democrat Sens. Michael Bennet (Colo.), Ruben Gallego (Ariz.), Maggie Hassan (N.H.), Martin Heinrich (N.M.), John Hickenlooper (Colo.), Ben Ray Luján (N.M.) and Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) as well as independent Sen. Angus King (Maine) voted with Republicans to confirm him.Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle indicated support for his nomination during his confirmation hearing, and he sailed out of committee on a 15-5 vote. “He’s a scientist who has invested his life around energy. He is indeed an unrestrained enthusiast for fossil fuels in almost every regard, but he studied nuclear,” Hickenlooper said during Wright’s confirmation hearing. “His first years of working were in solar. He has experience in wind.” Nevertheless, Wright has also stoked some controversy over past comments downplaying climate change’s connections to extreme weather. However, during the hearing, he acknowledged that climate change is happening, saying it is “a global issue, it is a real issue, it is a challenging issue.” Now that he’s confirmed, Wright will run a department that oversees energy research and loans, as well as the nation’s nuclear weapons arsenal. He gave significant financial contributions to Trump’s reelection campaign, giving two donations of $175,000 and $53,990 to the Trump 47 joint fundraising committee, which allocates funds to the Trump campaign, the Republican National Committee and other political committees.

Susan Collins says she'll support Tulsi Gabbard for DNI — Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) announced Monday that she will support Tulsi Gabbard to become director of national intelligence (DNI), giving her a key boost in her confirmation push. Collins was considered a crucial swing vote on the Senate Intelligence Committee, which is set to meet Tuesday afternoon to potentially advance Gabbard toward a floor vote. Last month, Collins had expressed reservations about Gabbard. But in a statement on Monday, she pointed to Gabbard’s support for reducing the size and scale of the DNI position and said the former Democratic congresswoman had assuaged her concerns about her stance on Edward Snowden. “After extensive consideration of her nomination, I will support Tulsi Gabbard to be the Director of National Intelligence,” Collins said. “The Office of the Director of National Intelligence … has become far larger than it was designed to be, and Ms. Gabbard shares my vision of returning the agency to its intended size.” “In response to my questions during our discussion in my office and at the open hearing, as well as through her explanation at the closed hearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee, Ms. Gabbard addressed my concerns regarding her views on Edward Snowden,” Collins said. “I look forward to working with Ms. Gabbard to strengthen our national security.” With Collins in the “aye” column, all attention shifts to Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), who has been considered the other GOP swing vote on the panel. Young pressed Gabbard during her confirmation hearing about whether she thought Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor-turned-leaker, is a traitor — and was visibly frustrated with Gabbard’s answers.

Senate tees up final vote on Pam Bondi AG nomination - The Senate on Monday teed up a final vote on Pam Bondi’s nomination to lead the Justice Department.The chamber voted 52-46 to limit debate. Absent an agreement with Democrats, that puts a final confirmation vote on the docket for the early hours of Wednesday.Bondi, the former Florida attorney general who also worked on Trump’s team to challenge the 2020 election results, has faced tough questions from Democrats throughout the confirmation process but hasn’t seen any GOP defections.She advanced out of the Judiciary Committee last week on a party-line, 12-10 vote.Democrats have questioned her ability to exercise independence from President Trump, hammering her on the issue during her confirmation hearing.“I need to know that you would tell the president ‘no’ if you’re asked to do something that is wrong, illegal or unconstitutional,” Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the top Democrat on the panel, said during the hearing.Bondi dismissed the repeated questions as hypotheticals, but Democrats argue that Trump’s recent actions have made them a reality. They point to him pardoning or commuting the sentences of all 1,500 Jan. 6 defendants and the Justice Department firing attorneys who worked on his criminal cases.Bondi in her hearing also refused to say that Trump lost the election, instead saying former President Biden was sworn in as commander in chief.Republicans, however, vehemently defended her.“On multiple occasions during her hearing, Ms. Bondi stated that President Biden was the president, and that she quote-unquote accepted the results. As I said during the hearing, questioning the results of an election does not make one an election denier,” Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said during the meeting to advance her nomination.“Some of my colleagues also suggest that Miss Bondi’s loyalty to President Trump is somehow disqualifying. It is not persuasive in any way. There’s nothing wrong with President Trump appointing someone who seriously defended him to a high position. Ms. Bondi publicly supported President Trump, just like 77 million Americans who voted him back into office in November. So this too is not a disqualifying attribute.”

Senate confirms Pam Bondi to lead Justice Department - The Senate on Wednesday voted to confirm Pam Bondi as the next attorney general, giving her control of a Justice Department embroiled in controversy. The vote was 54-46. Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) joined all Republicans in voting in support of Bondi. Bondi, a two-term attorney general in Florida, has been lauded for her prosecutorial experience and work battling the opioid epidemic in the Sunshine State. But she is also a former attorney for President Trump who worked on his 2020 election challenge and has been highly critical of the criminal investigations into him, even calling for “prosecutors to be prosecuted.” Her nomination inspired scrutiny from Democrats over whether she will maintain an independent Justice Department. “If confirmed, I will work to restore confidence and integrity to the Department of Justice — and each of its components. Under my watch, the partisan weaponization of the Department of Justice will end,” Bondi said at her confirmation hearing. Democrats overseeing her nomination were unconvinced.

With Cassidy's support, RFK Jr's HHS nomination moves forward - Senator Bill Cassidy, MD (R-LA), voted “yes” today to advance Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s nomination to be Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) from the Senate Finance Committee to a vote on the Senate floor.Cassidy's vote was a tie-breaker, and closely watched after RFK Jr.'s testimony in front of two senate committees last week on which Cassidy serves. During appearances in front of both the Finance Committee and the Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, Cassidy engaged Kennedy in contentious and lengthy debate about Kennedy’s support of childhood immunizations in the United States.RFK Jr., a lawyer with no medical or public health training, is a longtime vaccine critic who has said vaccines cause autism and has suggested Black Americans should adhere to a different vaccine schedule than white peers.During last week’s testimony, Cassidy pushed Kennedy on the topic of vaccines several times, asking, “Does a 70-year-old man, who spent decades criticizing vaccines and was financially vested in finding fault with vaccines - can he change his attitudes and approach now that he'll have the most important position influencing vaccine policy in the United States?”Today Cassidy took to the Senate floor to explain his vote, saying he and Kennedy spoke at length over the weekend and that Kennedy had made several promises to him, including a promise to alert the Senate with a 30-day advance notice before changing vaccine safety monitoring programs.Cassidy, who chairs the Senate Finance Committee, said he will also meet with Kennedy regularly if he is elected head of HHS. A final confirmation vote for Kennedy is scheduled next week. If senators vote on party lines, four Republican senators would need to vote “no” for his confirmation to fail.

What Is Methylene Blue? Viral RFK Jr Drink Video Sparks Questions - Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was spotted on a plane adding a blue liquid to his drink in a viral video that has sparked speculation online. Newsweek reached out to a representative for RFK Jr. outside of regular working hours via email for comment. We could not immediately verify the veracity of the video. Kennedy Jr. is President Donald Trump's nominee to become the head of Health and Human Services. His position is up for a vote on the Senate floor having cleared the Senate Finance Committee. Kennedy Jr. is known for his outspoken views on health, including vaccine skepticism and criticism over the use of chemicals in food.In a video shared on X, formerly Twitter, by the account American AF, Kennedy can be seen on an airplane adding blue liquid from a vial into his water.The video has been viewed over 8.1 million times at the time of reporting.The liquid he is purportedly seen adding to his drink is understood to be methylene blue.What is RFK Jr. putting in his drink…?? pic.twitter.com/R9ZXmwmfVC The video has sparked questions and speculation about the substance. The America AF account asked, "What is RFK Jr. putting in his drink...?"One social media user commented, "He really needs to let us know. Is it the blue dye?" while another said, "Methylene blue! I use that too, best supplement!!!"Since the video has gone viral, there has been a spike in Google searches related to methylene blue, including what it is, what it's used for and if it's good for you.Some users poked fun at the video and shared memes on X. Me, trying to get on a flight with a vial of "methylene blue" pic.twitter.com/Lt7yFlPJBDMethylene blue is a synthetic compound with a deep blue color that has been used for over a century in various medical, scientific, and industrial applications. Chemically, it is classified as a phenothiazine derivative. It is a salt and is used as a dye and as medication.Medically, it is used to treat methemoglobinemia, a condition where hemoglobin cannot efficiently release oxygen to body tissues. It acts as a reducing agent, restoring normal oxygen-carrying capacity to red blood cells.In addition to this, methylene blue has been explored for potential benefits in antimicrobial applications, and even anti-aging research. Studies suggest it may have antioxidant properties that could help mitigate neurodegenerative diseases such as Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. It is also purported to be helpful in enhancing memory and focus. However, it's use in cognitive enhancement and longevity remains under scientific investigation, requiring further clinical trials to confirm its efficacy and safety.Adding substances to water for health purposes is quite common. People add a range of things, like chlorophyll drops, apple cider vinegar and L-theanine powder to their water in order to try to better their health.The Mayo Clinic on its website: "[The] methylene blue injection is used to treat a condition called methemoglobinemia. This condition occurs when the blood cannot deliver oxygen where it is needed in the body." Kennedy Jr. speaking during his confirmation hearing: "We need to shift our focus from a disease-care system to a true healthcare system, prioritizing prevention and wellness to reduce the burden of chronic diseases." Kennedy Jr.'s confirmation as the secretary of health and human services isup for a vote on the Senate floor.

Gabbard, RFK Jr. pass committee hurdles in win for Trump Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Tuesday cleared crucial hurdles toward winning Senate confirmation, handing President Trump a key win as he looks for an early display of loyalty from GOP lawmakers. Gabbard and Kennedy overcame high-stakes committee votes that went down to the wire in their bids to lead the U.S. Intelligence apparatus and the Department of Health and Human Services, respectively. Skeptical Republicans on each committee made the decision to back them in the final days before the votes after Trump officials, including Vice President Vance, and other GOP leaders cajoled them into maintaining an unblemished slate of nominees who have gone through the committee process. How the process played out underscores how wary Republicans are of incurring Trump’s wrath only weeks into his administration. “They’re not going to go against him. If they go against him, they go against 77 million people,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said, referring to Trump’s popular vote total in November. “I don’t think they want that if they want [to get] reelected.” Both nominees now appear likely to be confirmed on the Senate floor in the coming week, though the final votes could be close. Democrats remain vehemently opposed to both nominees, and there are a handful of Republicans who haven’t said how they intend to vote. Each can only afford to lose three votes on the Senate floor. Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is considered a potential “no” vote on both, though it’s unclear how many others will join him. Gabbard’s nomination was considered to be in peril late last week after her tumultuous confirmation hearing seemed to make the path to confirmation rockier. Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), an ex-Marine intelligence officer, appeared irked while the former Hawaii congresswoman refused to say whether National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden is a traitor. And Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) had last week indicated she was concerned about Gabbard’s views on government surveillance. But by Monday top Republicans were optimistic Gabbard would advance out of committee. Young had a series of phone calls with Vance over the weekend, and he told reporters he spoke with Trump, whose campaign he never formally endorsed in 2024. Young told reporters that the president and others didn’t threaten any retaliation if he opposed Gabbard. “I said, ‘How important is this to you, Mr. President?’ He said, ‘It’s important, but … we’re going to work together on all kinds of other things to make America great again.’ I told him I need reassurances, and those were delivered.”

Duckworth says she will vote no on remaining Trump nominees - Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) will vote “no” on all of President Trump’s remaining Cabinet nominees in protest against the president’s sweeping and disruptive actions in the first few weeks of his administration, she indicated Thursday. While she and all other Senate Democrats voted to confirm Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the opening hours of Trump’s term, the bipartisan cooperation has soured quickly. Duckworth in the last week flipped her “yes” vote to a “no” on Trump’s Transportation secretary nominee, Sean Duffy, and Veterans Affairs secretary nominee, Doug Collins. Trump has 12 Cabinet nominees confirmed. At least 10 of Trump’s Cabinet nominees are in line for a Senate floor vote. Her opposition is unlikely to impact confirmations in the 53-seat, Republican-controlled Senate. But it is another signal of the wide gap between Republicans and Democrats, who are furious over the GOP rubber-stamping some of Trump’s most controversial nominees and policy actions. “Until Donald Trump and unelected billionaire Elon Musk stop their relentless spree of illegal power grabs that are inflicting pain on the middle class and damaging our national security, I’ll be voting no on all remaining top-level cabinet nominees,” Duckworth said in a statement, shared exclusively with The Hill.

Mitch McConnell calls Donald Trump pardons a 'mistake,' Jan. 6 'an insurrection' — Former Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said it was a “mistake” for President Trump to pardon individuals convicted of crimes connected to the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. “I think pardoning people who’ve been convicted is a mistake,” McConnell, the longest-serving party leader in Senate history, told CBS’s Lesley Stahl in Sunday’s “60 Minutes” broadcast. Hours after taking office, Trump pardoned nearly all of the roughly 1,600 people charged in connection with the riot. He commuted the sentences of about a dozen others who did not receive pardons. Trump also ordered the Justice Department to throw out any pending indictments against Jan. 6 defendants whose cases haven’t yet been adjudicated, covering about 470 people. About 600 people were accused of assaulting, resisting or impeding police during the turmoil, and 10 were convicted of sedition, the most serious charge that was brought against any individual resulting from that day. Asked to describe his relationship with Trump, McConnell said, “Well, we haven’t spoken for quite a while. I was very upset about what happened Jan. 6.” McConnell fiercely criticized Trump after the Capitol attack. He did not vote to convict Trump for his actions surrounding the Capitol attack but said the current and former president still bears responsibility for his actions. “Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day,” McConnell said in a Senate floor speech after Trump was acquitted in 2021. In the “60 Minutes” interview, McConnell added: “That’s the way I still feel about it.” Stahl asked McConnell about “Trump and his supporters trying to change what happened on Jan. 6.” “They’re calling it a day of love. They call the rioters martyrs,” she noted. “Yeah, no, it was an insurrection,” McConnell responded.

Vivek Ramaswamy poised to shake up Ohio governor's race — When Vivek Ramaswamy formally launches his expected bid to succeed Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), the biotech entrepreneur and former presidential candidate appears on track to become the favorite for the Buckeye State’s governor’s mansion. Ramaswamy boasts national name recognition from his firebrand bid for the White House in 2024 and, even before launching, new polling from a pro-Ramaswamy firm shows a majority of Ohio Republican primary voters would get behind him in 2026. Some of Vice President Vance’s top political advisers also joined on this week to steer Ramaswamy’s soon-to-be-announced campaign, a promising sign that he could snag a key endorsement from Vance or President Trump — though he’d likely face candidates who have long-standing political ties in the state. “He’ll need to do the work to get around,” said one Republican strategist in the state. “But listen, if he gets the Trump-Vance endorsement, I think it’s very tough. I think it’s over.” Ramaswamy is expected to launch his campaign mid-February, a source familiar confirmed. New polling obtained by The Hill from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates found Ramaswamy with a “huge lead” over his potential competitors, winning 52 percent of the state’s GOP voters in a hypothetical primary ballot. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost (R), the first major candidate to declare a run, was in second place with 18 percent. “In no uncertain terms, Vivek Ramaswamy is the overwhelming frontrunner to be the Republican nominee for Governor in Ohio, and he’ll only be buoyed by his pro-Trump and America First policies and ideas,” the pollster wrote in a memo. That pollster is notably an alum of both the Trump campaign and of Vance’s 2022 Senate bid. He is also among several Vance allies and advisers who are joining Ramaswamy’s team. Those gets are “a pretty big indicator” that Ramaswamy could enter the governor’s race in the strongest position, the Ohio strategist said. Ramaswamy also pulled in a prelaunch endorsement this week from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who said on the social platform X that Ramaswamy would have his “full support” if he runs. But the Republican primary could get crowded. Yost jumped into the race for the governor’s mansion last week, and Ohio Treasurer Robert Sprague is also expected to run, after reportedly filing paperwork and teasing a bid on social media. Amy Acton, a former Ohio health director, is running on the Democrats’ side. Former Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) was also considered a potential contender for the role, but DeWine instead selected him to fill the Senate vacancy left open as Vance exited the upper chamber for the White House, a slot for which Ramaswamy, too, was floated. Another complicating factor is that Ramaswamy, who holds no experience in elected office, would be up against candidates with longer government resumes, including Yost, who was first elected as state auditor in 2010 before winning the top prosecutor slot in 2018. That means he “needs to do a little bit of the rubber chicken,” the strategist said. “He needs to get around the state, let people see him. … He’s gonna have to do the things you need to do to win a Republican primary.” Longtime Ohio Democratic strategist Justin Barasky, who’s working with Acton’s campaign, predicted a “pretty messy primary” on the GOP side, which could “make for some interesting moments that I think Democrats will be able to capitalize on.”

Musk adds Shell, Nestlé, Lego to X advertiser ‘boycott’ lawsuit --Elon Musk’s X is adding several more companies to its lawsuit accusing firms of conspiring in an advertising “boycott” on the social media platform. The newest complaint, filed over the weekend, adds Shell International, Nestlé, Abbott Laboratories, Colgate-Palmolive, Lego, Tyson Foods and Pinterest to the growing list of companies. Last August,X sued a coalition of advertisers, accusing the group of conspiring to withhold “billions of dollars in advertising revenue.” The original suit took aim at the World Federation of Advertisers and its Global Alliance for Responsible Media initiative that boycotted X. The suit accused Unilever, Mars and CVS, among others, of violating antitrust law and evading the competition process. Since Musk took over X, formerly Twitter, the platform has struggled to retain advertisers as companies express concern about content moderation. Musk lashed out at the advertisers before the original suit was filed, telling them to “go f— yourself.” He later walked back the statement, but it sent companies a harsh message about how he wants to conduct business with those that may disagree with his practices

Senator Hawley Proposes Jail Time for People Who Download DeepSeek - The Republican Senator from Missouri Josh Hawley has introduced a new bill that would make it illegal to import or export artificial intelligence products to and from China, meaning someone who knowingly downloads a Chinese developed AI model like the now immensely popular DeepSeek could face up to 20 years in jail, a million dollar fine, or both, should such a law pass.Kevin Bankston, a senior advisor on AI governance at the Center for Democracy & Technology, told 404 Media it is “a broad attack on the very idea of scientific dialogue and technology exchange with China around AI, with potentially ruinous penalties for AI researchers and users alike and deeply troubling implications for the future of online speech and freedom of scientific inquiry.”Hawley introduced the legislation, titled the Decoupling America’s Artificial Intelligence Capabilities from China Act, on Wednesday of last week. “Every dollar and gig of data that flows into Chinese AI are dollars and data that will ultimately be used against the United States,” Senator Hawley said in a statement. “America cannot afford to empower our greatest adversary at the expense of our own strength. Ensuring American economic superiority means cutting China off from American ingenuity and halting the subsidization of CCP innovation.” Hawley’s statement explicitly says that he introduced the legislation because of the release of DeepSeek, an advanced AI model that’s competitive with its American counterparts, and which its developers claimed was made for a fraction of the cost and without access to as many and as advanced of chips, though these claims are unverified. Hawley’s statement called DeepSeek “a data-harvesting, low-cost AI model that sparked international concern and sent American technology stocks plummeting.” Hawley’s statement says the goal of the bill is to “prohibit the import from or export to China of artificial intelligence technology, “prohibit American companies from conducting AI research in China or in cooperation with Chinese companies,” and “Prohibit U.S. companies from investing money in Chinese AI development.” Hawley’s bill and its aims were covered credulously on Fox News, but even if you think the bill’s goals are worth pursuing the actual language of the bill is broad and dystopian. Unlike legislators who fearmongered about TikTok and wanted to ban it, Hawley’s bill would criminalize the activity of average users, millions of whom downloaded DeepSeek recently, making it one of the most popular apps on the Apple App store. Specifically, the bill prohibits “the importation into the United States of artificial intelligence or generative artificial intelligence technology or intellectual proprietary developed or produced in the People’s Republic of China.” Those who violate this “Shall be subject to the criminal penalties set forth in subsection (b) of section 1760 of the Export Control Reform Act of 2018 (50 U. S.C, 4819).” That law states that “A person who willfully commits, willfully attempts to commit, or willfully conspires to commit, or aids and abets in the commission of, an unlawful act described in subsection (a) (1) shall be fined not more than $1,000,000; and (2) in the case of the individual, shall be imprisoned for not more than 20 years, or both.” the Center for Democracy & Technology’s Bankston told me that he’s skeptical that there would be strong criminal cases against someone who unintentionally downloaded an app like DeepSeek because the legislation specifies a person’s conduct must be “willful” for the imposition of criminal penalties, the bill is still “worrisomely broad.” “It appears that it *could* apply to someone who downloaded DeepSeek knowing that it was from China, and yes, the criminal penalty for that under this proposal would be up to one million dollars or 20 years in prison (and also potentially civil penalties as well, which may require less proof of state of mind and may potentially even reach a mere accidental ‘importer’ of a Chinese model),” Bankston said. The bill, which also prohibits the “transfer of research,” could create an unworkable environment for computer scientists who make their research public, and regularly read AI papers published by Chinese researchers. “Beyond just impacting people downloading models from China, the bill's penalties for the import to or export from China of AI technology and intellectual property could also potentially extend to anyone who publishes AI models or research papers on the open internet knowing they will be downloaded by people in China,” Bankston said. “Researchers are also threatened by the second half of the bill, which would directly outlaw American collaboration with researchers at basically any Chinese university or company—with a fine of up to 100 million dollars for any company that violates the prohibition, amongst other penalties.” "The bill threatens the development and publishing of AI advancements in the United States, and we're particularly worried about the impact on open and collaborative development of these technologies outside the proprietary systems of the Big Tech incumbents," Kit Walsh, the Electronic Frontier Foundation's Director of AI and Access-to-Knowledge Legal Projects, told me. "In the past, the government has argued that merely publishing information on the internet counts as an export, and interpreting this law in such a way would further solidify the dominance of proprietary AI over open or academic research. The law would also interfere with efforts at AI accountability, such as transparency requirements that states and members of Congress have sought to create in order to make sure that AI isn't harming people in the United States when used for decisions about such wide-ranging things as housing, health care, and hiring."

No, DeepSeek isn't uncensored if you run it locally | TechCrunch = There’s an idea floating around that DeepSeek’s well-documentedcensorship only exists at its application layer but goes away if you run it locally (that means downloading its AI model to your computer). But DeepSeek’s censorship is baked-in, according to a Wired investigationwhich found that the model is censored on both the application and training levels.For example, a locally run version of DeepSeek revealed to Wired thanks to its reasoning feature that it should “avoid mentioning” events like the Cultural Revolution and focus only on the “positive” aspects of the Chinese Communist Party. A quick check by TechCrunch of a locally run version of DeepSeek available via Groq also showed clear censorship: DeepSeek happily answered a question about the Kent State shootings in the U.S., but replied “I cannot answer” when asked about what happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989.

DeepSeek gives Europe's tech firms a chance to catch up in global AI race (Reuters) - Hemanth Mandapati, boss of German startup Novo AI, was an early adopter of DeepSeek chatbots when he switched to the Chinese AI model from OpenAI's ChatGPT two weeks ago."If you have built your application using OpenAI, you can easily migrate to the other ones ... it took us minutes to switch," he said in an interview on the sidelines of the GoWest conference for venture capitalists in Gothenburg, Sweden.DeepSeek's emergence is changing the landscape for AI, offering companies access to the technology at a fraction of the cost, according to interviews with more than a dozen startup executives and investors. It also has the potential to push other AI companies to improve their models and bring down prices."There was an offer from DeepSeek which was five times lower than their actual prices," said Mandapati. "I am saving a lot of money and users don't see any kind of a difference."Europe's tech startups had struggled to adopt the new technology at the same rate as U.S. rivals, which have easier access to funding. But executives say DeepSeek could be a game changer."It marks a significant step forward in democratising AI and levelling the playing field with Big Tech," said Seena Rejal, chief commercial officer of British firm NetMind.AI, another early adopter of DeepSeek. Analysts at Bernstein estimate that DeepSeek's pricing is 20 to 40 times cheaper than equivalent models from OpenAI. OpenAI charges $2.5 for 1 million input tokens, or units of data processed by the AI model, while DeepSeek is currently charging $0.014 for the same number of tokens. Concerns have been raised by regulators about whether DeepSeek is copying OpenAI data or censoring answers that could portray China in a bad light. It is currently being investigated in different European countries. "While the future of DeepSeek as a business is difficult to predict, the structural impact seems quite pervasive," said Sanjot Malhi, partner at venture capital firm Northzone. Nearly $100 billion was invested by venture capitalists in AI companies in 2024 in the U.S. compared with about $15.8 billion in Europe, according to data from PitchBook. Just on Jan. 22, U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a $500 billion AI project called Stargate, a joint venture backed by OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle. Only France's Mistral features among the list of top foundational models dominated by the likes of OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic and Google. China's DeepSeek attracted attention after writing in a paper last month that the training of DeepSeek-V3 required less than $6 million worth of computing power from Nvidia H800 chips. It has since overtaken ChatGPT to become the top-rated productivity application available on Apple's App Store. "This is a wake-up call that bigger isn't always better," said Fabrizio Del Maffeo, CEO of Axelera AI. "By making models more attainable to everyone, the total cost of ownership and barriers to building innovative tech are lowered which can be a catalyst for the whole industry." While some analysts doubt that DeepSeek's training cost is as low as the company says, they agree it is lower than comparable American models. "I see DeepSeek as a tremendous opportunity for companies like ours," said Ulrik R-T, CEO of Denmark's Empatik AI. "It showed that we do not need huge budgets to be able to achieve our vision." The price war may have already started.Microsoft last week released, OpenAI's o1 reasoning model to all Copilot users for free, instead of the usual subscription fee of $20 per month."AI prices are going down, so future usage is probably going where there is transparency, which is usually open source, even though it's in China," said Scale Capital's Joachim Schelde.Bigger companies, ranging from Finland's Nokia to Germany's SAP, are more cautious about switching."Cost is just one factor," said Alexandru Voica, Head of Corporate at Britain's Synthesia, which was last valued at $2.1 billion. "Other factors are: 'do you have all the security certifications, the frameworks, the software ecosystem that allows companies to build and integrate with your platform?'"

Report: OpenAI’s ex-CTO, Mira Murati, has recruited OpenAI co-founder John Schulman -- OpenAI co-founder John Schulman, who left AI startup Anthropic last week after a mere five months, is reportedly joining former OpenAI CTO Mira Murati’s secretive new startup, per Fortune.It’s not clear what Schulman’s role there will be. Fortune wasn’t able to learn that information, and Murati has been tight-lipped about the venture since she left OpenAI in September. But one source did reveal to Fortune that Murati has recruited additional ex-OpenAI staff, including Christian Gibson, who had been serving on OpenAI’s supercomputing team.Confirming that I left Anthropic last week. Leaving wasn't easy because I enjoyed the stimulating research environment and the kind and talented people I was working with, but I decided to go with another opportunity that I found extremely compelling. I'll share more details in…— John Schulman (@johnschulman2) February 7, 2025Murati was reportedly in talks to raise over $100 million for her company in October.Credited as one of the leading architects of ChatGPT, Schulman left OpenAI last August for Anthropic. He posted about the decision on X, saying it stemmed from a desire to deepen his focus on AI alignment — the science of ensuring AI behaves as intended — and engage in more hands-on technical work.

AI energy demand predictions have echoes of the great horse manure crisis - Reading through the comments thread beneath a recent Telegraph column that had suggested that the UK was relatively well placed for the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, I was struck by the following observation. The UK was doomed to fail in AI, it said, because AI was highly energy intensive, and the UK has some of the most expensive electricity in the world, poised to get even more so with the Government’s headlong dash for net zero. Who in such circumstances would want to build “hyper-scale” data centres in the UK? Good point, I thought, and excellent fodder for another column.It didn’t take long, however, for the idea to be thoroughly debunked. No doubt many of the claims being made about DeepSeek are exaggerated, but even if they are half right about the much lower energy consumption of China’s low-cost AI model, then some of the projections around AI’s demand for power are going to look way over the top. Speaking via a video link to global elites in Davos last week, Donald Trump said the US would need to double the amount of energy it produces to satisfy the ambitions of the AI hyper-scalers. This was a far bigger estimate than even the highest such prediction I’d seen up until that point – that of the management consultants McKinsey, which forecast that global data-centre demand might grow by 240GW between 2023 and 2030, and that in the US they would absorb some 12pc of all the power generated.That’s a long way below what Trump seems to imagine, but it would still require a massive upscaling of both US power generation and distribution. And already plans are well advanced to meet that demand.Writing for BloombergNEF, the UK based clean energy entrepreneur Michael Liebreich says that most of the data centres used to train AI models currently in construction are in the 100MW and 250MW range, much bigger than anything that’s gone before – but what the tech giants really want are training centres of between 1GW and 2GW.Recently announced in a blaze of publicity, Trump’s $500bn (£400bn) Stargate supercomputer complex would require 5GW. Amazon alone proposes to spend $150bn on data centres over the next 15 years.All these plans now begin to look massively overblown. DeepSeek’s “Sputnik moment” also points to an already monumental, hype-driven misallocation of capital that threatens to drive significant losses and write-offs across the tech sector for some years to come. Hundreds of billions of investment dollars are being sunk into AI, but so far for little or no return. For comparison, look back to the turn of the century dot-com and mobile telephone bubbles, which gave us a wonderful new technological infrastructure but also an eventual bust in which many people and organisations lost their shirts. Some of the same excess can be seen in the rush to secure seemingly scarce energy supply for AI. In anticipation of explosive growth, the US state of Georgia alone is planning for 36.5 GW of new demand in the next decade, or around a half of current peak demand in the UK, including 19.9 GW in the next four years. Elon Musk, Trump’s new confidante, noted in March last year that “we have silicon shortage today, a transformer shortage in about a year and electricity shortages in about two years”.Mark Zuckerberg, the chief executive of Meta, has claimed his company would build more data centres if only it could get more power.Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI, likewise: “We still don’t appreciate the energy needs of this technology ... We need fusion or we need radically cheaper solar plus storage, or something.” Or maybe not. One of the abiding truths about technological innovation is that what starts off as clunky and barely worth the time and effort required to use it rapidly generates big improvements in efficiency, driving down costs and ease of use, and eventually creating a virtuous circle of rising supply and demand.

AI’s Impending Information Crisis --In 1865 British economist William Stanley Jevons explained to the public that increased efficiencies in the use of resources per unit of production do not generally lead to lower consumption of those resources. Rather, these efficiencies lead to higher consumption as many more people can now afford the more efficiently produced goods which carry a lower price tag. Jevons was referring to coal, the cost of which was falling and demand for which was rising due to increased efficiencies in production. His idea became known as The Jevons Paradox.When the Chinese-based artificial intelligence (AI) upstart DeepSeek demonstrated last week that complex and powerful AI can be delivered for a tiny fraction of the cost and resources of current AI tools, DeepSeek’s competitors cited The Jevons Paradox and told investors not to worry. Demand for AI would now grow even more rapidly in response to greater efficiencies and thus lower costs.What those competitors failed to mention is that DeepSeek’s breakthrough is great news for buyers of AI tools, but very bad news for current developers who are sellers of those tools. DeepSeek is giving away free or at only 3 percent of competitors’ prices (for those needing application programming interface services) something comparable to the very expensive products of its competitors. This suggests that the hundreds of billions of dollars spent developing those expensive tools may have just gone up in smoke. That investment may never be recouped.Moreover, DeepSeek has shown that its powerful AI tool can run on a laptop, so the need for vast cloud computing resources is not necessary in many cases. In addition, DeepSeek’s AI tool is open source and can be freely distributed. This means anyone can see the code, customize it, perhaps improve upon it AND make money off the improved or customized version. And, because anyone can see the code, anyone can see how DeepSeek achieved such efficiencies and design their own AI tool to match or exceed those efficiencies.The one thing the big AI developers are right about is that at these new prices (free or nearly free) the demand for AI is likely to grow much more rapidly as it is applied to situations where AI was previously too expensive to justify—just as The Jevons Paradox suggests. And that means it is probably wrong to think that these vast new efficiencies will eliminate the need for large expansions of electric generating capacity. The demand for additional generating capacity will still be there. It may just rise at a slower rate than previously forecast.This is NOT an endorsement of what is about to happen. In fact, the more rapid spread and even wider use of AI is likely to create problems at a faster rate. More efficient and broader use of AI means that the human sources of information will be driven from the marketplace even sooner—the very ones that are essential if AI is to have real information from informed experts and writers. What comes next is AI feeding on AI-generated information, a kind of digital cannibalism that will not end well.As I wrote back in September: It’s worth noting that expertise does not actually reside on the page. It resides in the minds of a community of interacting experts who are constantly debating and renewing their expertise by evaluating new information, insights and data from experiments and real-world situations.When the information generated by this kind of expertise is gone from the web or at least crippled, what kind of nonsense will AI tools spew out then? One thing is almost certain: The nonsense will now come more quickly and from more and more of the systems we rely on. That’s hardly a comforting thought.

HAWK Crypto Scam: Hawk Tuah Girl Breaks Her Silence - Internet personality Hailey Welch, also known as “Hawk Tuah” girl, recently addressed the HAWK memecoin scam after two months. The influencer finally “woke up” after going “to sleep” following the crash of her token, which left most crypto investors empty-handed. On Thursday, influencer Hailey Welch broke her silence about the controversial launch of the Hawk Tuah (HAWK) memecoin. After nearly two months since her last statement, Welch released a now-deleted comeback episode of her podcast addressing the December crypto scam. Yesterday, the influencer addressed her disappearance at the start of the now-deleted podcast episode, stating, “It was a very long nap.” During the Talk Tuah episode, Welch affirmed that she has no knowledge about crypto but entered the space after a “friend of a friend” introduced her to the project. The person, who allegedly has many connections in LA, told the influencer and her team that the project was “going to change the way everybody thinks of crypto.” She claims her team was told it was “supposed to be more like a long-term coin” and “done in the right way.” Moreover, the money she made from the project would allegedly go to her charity, which seemingly inclined her to accept. Her lawyer explained that the deal was a “brand image likeness” deal and they had no part in the tokenomics or development of the token. Welch was paid $125,000 upfront to promote the memecoin and was promised another $200,000 within 30 days after the launch. Additionally, she was supposed to receive a 10% allocation of the HAWK memecoin supply, with a 1-year lockup period, and get 5% of the locked tokens. However, her lawyer claims that the tokenomics continued changing throughout the process, and after the launch, adding that she never received the second payment. They also clarified that they don’t know who the developer is as it wasn’t disclosed to them. It’s worth noting that, on December 20, Welch shared on X that she was “fully cooperating with and committed to assisting the legal team representing the individuals impacted” to uncover “the truth” to hold accountable those responsible for the scam.

Kanye West claims to have rejected $2M offer to promote crypto scam Kanye West, aka Ye, says he rejected a $2 million offer to promote a cryptocurrency scam, which involved posting a fraudulent promotion and later claiming his account was hacked. Kanye West, who now goes by Ye, says he rejected a $2 million offer to participate in a crypto scam. The scheme allegedly involved him posting a fraudulent crypto promotion to his 32.6 million followers and claiming his account was hacked hours later. By that point, victims could have already lost significant sums of money. “I was proposed 2 million dollars to scam my community. Those left of it. I said no and stopped working with their person who proposed it,” West said in a Feb. 7 X post. West was asked to leave X post up for 8 hours West included a screenshot in his post revealing how the scam promoting a “fake ye currency” was supposed to unfold. The offer promised West an upfront payment of $750,000 to share the crypto promotion and keep it live for 8 hours, after which he could claim his account was hacked and that he didn’t make the post. This would be followed by a $1.25 million payout 16 hours later. “The company asking you to do this will be scamming the public out of tens of millions of dollars,” the message read. An hour later, West shared a screenshot of a private conversation where he asked an unnamed X user to share a “crypto connect” name that wouldn’t require a middleman. The user responded by naming Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and offering to request his phone number for West.

Waller: Fed has 'dropped' wholesale CBDC concept --The Federal Reserve is no longer exploring the creation of a central bank digital currency for interbank transactions, according to one of its top payments officials. Instead, it is looking for ways to improve existing systems.

Bank customers still complain about crypto debanking - When Ken Chapman, principal at T10 Ventures, applied to open a new account with USAA last week, he knew the potential flags his crypto dealings might raise. He went out of his way to call USAA directly, instead of applying online, so he could explain his crypto investments. Despite crypto-friendly signals coming from Washington, getting a bank account still appears to be a challenge for crypto businesses and investors. "These banks want to look for business but because of a regulatory environment that they have been in, they have been forced to decide whether they want to do business with certain types of industries," said Senator Mike Rounds, R-S.D., in a Senate Banking Committee hearing on Wednesday.

FDIC releases bank supervisory communications on crypto - Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. acting Chair Travis Hill released a trove of internal supervisory correspondence from the agency to banks regarding proposed cryptocurrency business lines or relationships, initiatives Hill said were "universally met with resistance" by the agency.

Crypto Regulatory Pivot Accelerates: FDIC Releases 790 Pages Of Letters; SEC Dials Down Oversight, Reassigns Lawyers - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the regulatory body overseeing banks in the United States, has released 790 pages of additional correspondence related to firms offering crypto services to clients. According to the FDIC, the documents show requests from banks and other institutions to offer crypto services to clients were almost always met with resistance, delays, constant requests for more information and pause letters.As CoinTelegraph's Vince Quill reports, the newly revealed document tranche included previously released correspondence from 24 banking firms and additional correspondence from other firms that requested permission to offer crypto-related services.“Looking forward, we are actively reevaluating our supervisory approach to crypto-related activities,” FDIC Acting Chairman Travis Hill wrote, marking a seismic shift in the government agency’s stance toward the crypto industry.

Federal Reserve releases 2025 stress test scenarios -- A global recession, commercial and residential real estate stress and a corporate debt crunch are among the scenarios explored in this year's Federal Reserve stress test. With the Federal Reserve eyeing changes to its annual examination of large bank resilience, this year's test could be the last of its kind.

Trump taps Bessent to lead consumer bureau as GOP plots big changes - President Trump has tapped Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the acting chief of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).“I look forward to working with the CFPB to advance President Trump’s agenda to lower costs for the American people and accelerate economic growth,” Bessent said in a statement on Monday.Trump designated Bessent as acting director on Friday, not long before Rohit Chopra, who served as the agency’s director since 2021, announced his departure the following day.Chopra, a Democrat appointed by former President Biden, had been serving a five-year term and could have remained in the post through most of next year.Chopra’s departure comes as Republicans plan to use their control of the White House and both chambers of Congress to make big changes at the polarizing financial watchdog agency. GOP lawmakers have insisted for years that the CFPB has too much power and independence from Congress, which they say the agency uses to impose overbearing regulations and unwarranted court cases on businesses.Democrats, however, hail the CFPB as one of the most successful creations of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law, praising its aggressive track record of enforcing and imposing consumer-protection laws.The watchdog was established under the Obama administration following the 2008 financial crisis. The regulating authority is tasked with enforcing consumer financial laws and the oversight of payday lenders, private mortgage lenders and servicers, debt collectors, credit reporting agencies, and private student loan companies.However, Republicans have sought to rein in the agency’s powers over the years, with some proposing to completely abolish the office.

Treasury Secretary Bessent, tapped to run CFPB, orders staff to halt work -- Scott Bessent, who was confirmed as Treasury secretary last week, has been named acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Bessent replaces Rohit Chopra, who was fired on Saturday.In an internal email shared with NPR, staff members were instructed to immediately cease much of the bureau's work, "unless expressly approved by the Acting Director or required by law". That includes a halt on issuing or approving proposed or final rules or guidance, and suspending the effective dates of all final rules that have been issued but have not yet become effective.Staff members were also instructed not to commence or settle enforcement actions, nor to issue any public communications of any type, including research papers. The directive was made "[i]n order to promote consistency with the goals of the Administration," the email said.Bessent, a wealthy hedge fund manager, was already expected to be a business-friendly choice to lead the Treasury. Now he will lead the CFPB, the federal consumer watchdog, at least for a time. "I look forward to working with the CFPB to advance President Trump's agenda to lower costs for the American people and accelerate economic growth," Bessent said in a statement. CFPB has had several lawsuits underway, including enforcement actions against Capital One, Walmart, and Zelle and its parent banks. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., who had a key role in the formation of the agency and who serves on the Senate Banking Committee, criticized Bessent's order halting the bureau's work. "Shutting down CFPB enforcement actions that are on the verge of delivering money into the pockets of working people is at odds with President Trump's claim that he wants to lower costs for families," Warren said in a statement.Chopra had led the bureau since 2021 and frequently took on big banks. Under his leadership, the CFPB issued a number of regulations, including limiting overdraft fees, capping credit card late fees and banning medical debt from appearing on credit reports.The Consumer Bankers Association, which represents retail banks, cheered the choice of Bessent and suggested he should rescind certain rules promulgated during the Chopra era. But consumer advocates decried the tapping of Bessent. "While [Trump] parades a crowd of corporate lobbyists, billionaire donors, and Wall Street insiders like Scott Bessent to lead our country, we're looking at the end of basic protections for American consumers," said Tony Carrk of Accountable.US, a corruption watchdog group, in a statement. The CFPB is an independent bureau within the Federal Reserve System. It's funded outside of the congressional appropriations process, and its funding comes from the Fed. The bureau was created in 2010 by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. That legislation was passed following the 2008 financial crisis,

CFPB agrees to temporarily halt medical debt rule -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has agreed to temporarily halt a rule that would ban medical bills from credit reports, giving the banking industry an immediate win under the new leadership of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, now led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, agreed to temporarily halt enforcement and litigation over its medical debt rule, handing the banking industry an immediate reprieve.

Trump picks Russ Vought as acting CFPB director, WSJ reports --- The Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Donald Trump has named Russell Vought as acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, expanding the portfolio of the recently-confirmed head of the Office of Management and a key architect of Project 2025 to include an agency squarely in the administration's crosshairs. Newly-confirmed Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought, a key architect of Project 2025, has been charged with overseeing an agency Republicans have vowed to eliminate, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Increase 14 Percent in 2024; 33% Below Pre-Pandemic Levels - From the U.S. Courts: Bankruptcy Filings Rise 14.2 Percent Total bankruptcy filings rose 14.2 percent, with increases in both business and non-business bankruptcies, in the twelve-month period ending Dec. 31, 2024. This continues an ongoing rebound in filings after more than a decade of sharply dropping totals. According to statistics released by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, annual bankruptcy filings totaled 517,308 in the year ending December 2024, compared with 452,990 cases in the previous year. Business filings rose 22.1 percent, from 18,926 to 23,107, in the year ending Dec. 31, 2024. Non-business bankruptcy filings rose 13.9 percent to 494,201, compared with 434,064 in December 2023. Bankruptcy totals for the previous 12 months are reported four times annually. For more than a decade, total filings fell steadily, from a high of nearly 1.6 million in September 2010 to a low of 380,634 in June 2022. Total filings have increased each quarter since then, but they remain far lower than historical highs. This graph shows the business and non-business bankruptcy filings by calendar year since 1997. The sharp decline in 2006 was due to the so-called "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005". 2024 was the 4th lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 33% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate -- From the Federal Reserve: The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices - The January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the fourth quarter of 2024. Regarding loans to businesses over the fourth quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, tighter lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes. Meanwhile, banks reported stronger demand for C&I loans to large and middle-market firms, while demand for C&I loans to small firms remained basically unchanged. Furthermore, banks generally reported tighter standards and basically unchanged demand for commercial real estate (CRE) loans. For loans to households, banks reported, on balance, basically unchanged lending standards and weaker demand across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. In addition, standards reportedly tightened for credit card loans and remained basically unchanged for auto and other consumer loans, while demand weakened for credit card and other consumer loans but remained basically unchanged for auto loans. Further, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). The January SLOOS included a set of special questions inquiring about banks’ expectations for changes in lending standards, borrower demand, and loan performance over 2025. Banks reported expecting lending standards to either ease or remain basically unchanged and demand to strengthen across all loan categories. In addition, banks generally reported expecting loan quality to improve for loans to businesses but to either deteriorate or remain basically unchanged for most consumer loan types.This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has been weak since late 2021. The left graph is from 1990 to 2014. The right graph is from 2015 to Q4 2024.

Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in December -- Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.59%, up from 0.56% November. Freddie's rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in December 2023, however, this is below the pre-pandemic level of 0.60%.Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in December was 0.56%, up from 0.53% in November. The serious delinquency rate is up year-over-year from 0.55% in December 2023, however, this is below the pre-pandemic lows of 0.65%.The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". Mortgages in forbearance are being counted as delinquent in this monthly report but are not reported to the credit bureaus. For Fannie, by vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 1.47% are seriously delinquent (up from 1.44% the previous month).For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 2.08% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.09%).For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2023 (98% of portfolio), 0.51% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.48%). So, Fannie is still working through a handful of poor performing loans from the bubble years.

ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011” - Here is the ICE December Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: 2024 Saw Softest Home Price Growth of Any Year Since 2011; Mortgage Delinquencies Gradually Trending Higher

• Annual home price growth edged slightly higher in December to finish the year at +3.4%, the softest growth since 2011, when the market was recovering following the financial crisis.
• The number of homes for sale in 2024 increased 22% leaving for-sale inventory at its best level since mid-2020, with a quarter of markets – primarily in southern states – back above pre-pandemic levels
• Climate events are a focal point for the market entering 2025; ICE data shows 17,000 homes and condos were in the path of the L.A. fires, with broad implications for both households and municipalities
• ICE daily mortgage data is already showing the financial stresses facing fire-affected homeowners, with nearly 5% fewer mortgage holders making payments by mid-January when compared to December
• Nationally, mortgage delinquencies have gradually been on the rise over the back half of 2024, especially among FHA and VA loans, suggesting performance will become a growing focal point in 2025

“Natural disasters continue to be in the spotlight across the country, and our hearts go out to the tens of thousands of affected households,”. “Early data shows financial pressures building among homeowners impacted by the ongoing California wildfires, while at the same time, more than 56K homeowners are still struggling to get back on track with monthly payments across seven states in the wake of last year’s major hurricanes. Here is a graph on delinquencies by severity from ICE. Overall delinquencies increased in December are still below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash

• While the share of homeowners past due on mortgage payments trended modestly higher in the second half of 2024, performance remains strong by historical standards
• The national delinquency rate rose 14 basis points (bps) in 2024 but remained 22 bps below its pandemic entry point
• Performance remains strong among GSE and portfolio-held mortgages, with delinquencies among portfolio held mortgages down 11 bps from last year and 1.1 percentage points below where we entered 2020
• FHA delinquencies, on the other hand, have increased sharply, rising 74 bps in 2024, and are now 2.5 percentage points above where they were just prior to the global pandemic
• VA delinquencies have also been on the rise, up 80 bps in 2024 and 83 bps from the beginning of 2020
• With FHA and VA loan delinquencies likely to serve as canaries in the coal mine for mortgage performance in this cycle, we expect this to become a growing topic of conversation in 2025

When mortgage rates declined in September and October, there was a surge in refinance activity, especially in rate/term refinances by homeowners with mortgage rates in the 7%+ range.

• Nationally, the number of homes listed for sale grew by 22% throughout 2024, with the deficit relative to pre-pandemic levels falling from -36% to -22%, leaving for-sale inventory at its strongest level since mid-2020
• At the current rate of improvement, the market (nationally) would be on pace to return to pre-pandemic for-sale inventory levels by mid-2026, although a number of macro and micro economic factors could change that trajectory
• Inventory improvements flattened in December, which is worth watching as we make our way into early 2025 and the spring buying season
• Inventory levels rose in 95% of major markets, with the strongest increases in the South and Southeast and more modest improvements in the Midwest, Northeast, and specifically in San Jose out West
• 25% of major markets – primarily in the South and Southeast – have seen the number of homes listed for sale return to pre-pandemic levels, with approximately 15% more on pace to ‘normalize’ in 2025
• The Midwest and Northeast are noticeable outliers, with much deeper deficits remaining and slower rates of improvement, as most markets in those regions are not on pace to 'normalize' until 2027 or beyond.

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 3.4% year-over-year in December.There is much more in the mortgage monitor including an extensive analysis of the financial impact of the California wildfires.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 -Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased Slightly in Q4 2024 A brief excerpt: From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2024 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.98 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.The following graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. Overall delinquencies increased in Q2. The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased year-over-year from 0.47 percent in Q4 2023 to 0.45 percent in Q4 2024 (red) and remains historically low. ... The primary concern is the increase in FHA and VA delinquency rates. Some of the increase is probably due to the hurricanes last year. We will likely see an increase in 30-day delinquencies in Q1 2025 due to the wildfires in California.

MBA: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increased in Weekly Survey; Purchase Applications Declined --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 31, 2025. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the Martin Luther King holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 19 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 12 percent from the previous week and was 17 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 15 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, consistent with lower Treasury yields following the FOMC meeting and a volatile week for stock market. The 30-year fixed rate declined to its lowest level in six weeks at 6.97 percent,” “Mortgage applications responded to these lower rates and were up for the week overall, driven by a 12 percent increase in refinance applications, which had their strongest week since December 2024.” Added Kan, “Purchase activity had a tougher week, with declines across all loan types. The average loan size for a purchase loan has increased since the start of the year and continued that trend last week with weaker government purchase activity, which reached $447,300, the highest level since October 2024.” … The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.97 percent from 7.02 percent, with points increasing to 0.64 from 0.63 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase inex. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 0.2% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 25% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 4% above the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.The refinance index remains very low.

Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in late January or February. Inventory is now up 1.7% from the bottom three weeks ago. If three weeks ago was the seasonal bottom, that would be very early in the year, but that has happened before.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 26.5%), and down 22.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 23.0%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Jan 31st, inventory was at 635 thousand (7-day average), compared to 637 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 3.4% Year-over-year in December-The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic: Home Price Growth Ticks Up Slightly in December...
• The national home price gain was 3.4% year over year in November 2024, down from the 5.2% growth recorded in the same month of 2023.
• The national home price gain was 3.4% year over year in December 2024, down from the 5.6% growth recorded in the final month of 2023.
• Home prices are projected to rise by 4.1% annually by December 2025.
• Northeastern states again showed strong annual price appreciation in December. ...
U.S. home price gains showed a slight marginal uptick to 3.4% year over year in December, though the uptick mostly reflects weak 2023 year-end. Otherwise, home price appreciation has been almost flat since the typically busy fall selling season began in September. ... “Home prices have remained flat since the housing market began seeing slower activity this past summer," . "Bifurcation across markets has also persisted. Northeastern markets drove appreciation growth due to low inventories of homes for sale while Southern markets readjusted to higher inventories and increases in variable mortgage costs, such as taxes and insurance. Home prices are also cooling in the markets in Mountain West, which have been trying to find stability over the last year following the surge in mortgage rates and price declines from pandemic highs. Despite the difficult housing markets conditions in 2024, home prices increased about 4.5% over the course of the year, a small jump compared to the 4.1% uptick in 2023. Going forward, with inventories slowing improving and mortgage rates remaining elevated, forecasts suggest a smaller overall increase in prices in 2025.” This was the same YoY increase as reported for November. This map is from the report. Nationally, home prices increased by 3.4% year over year in December. The state of Hawaii and the District of Colombia both posted annual home price declines of -1.1% and -0.7%, respectively. The states with the highest increases year over year were Connecticut (up by 7.8%) and New Jersey (up by 7.7%).

Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. ... Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.5% Year-over-year ... On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index ticked up to 6.9 percent in January, the highest reading in the history of that monthly data series, which goes back to the start of 2017.Realtor.com: 17th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents In December 2024, the US median asking rent continued to decline month-over-month for the seventeenth consecutive month. The national median rent was $1,695 in December, down $8 (0.5%) from November 2024 and $18 (1.1%) from December 2023 across the 50 largest metropolitan areas in the country.

Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in December --From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during December 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,192.2 billion, 0.5 percent above the revised November estimate of $2,180.3 billion. The December figure is 4.3 percent above the December 2023 estimate of $2,101.3 billion. The value of construction in 2024 was $2,154.4 billion, 6.5 percent above the $2,023.7 billion spent in 2023. Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,688.5 billion, 0.9 percent above the revised November estimate of $1,674.1 billion. ... In December, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $503.6 billion, 0.5 percent below the revised November estimate of $506.2 billion. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential (red) spending is 4.2% below the peak in 2022. Private non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak. Public construction spending is 0.6% below the peak in October 2024. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 6.0%. Private non-residential spending is up 2.3% year-over-year. Public spending is up 4.3% year-over-year. This was above consensus expectations and spending for the previous two months was revised up.

Update: Lumber Prices Up 6% YoY -- This might be something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red). On January 31, 2025, LBR was at $592.50 per 1000 board feet, up 6.4% from a year ago.There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.We didn't see a significant runup in the Spring period of 2023 or 2024 due to the housing slowdown. But we might see an increase due to the tariffs on Canada.

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.4% Year-over-year -From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 25 January - As expected with the MLK Day holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 25 January. ... 1-19-25 January 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):
• Occupancy: 54.3% (-3.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$154.21 (+3.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$83.74 (-0.2%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).This is the weakest period of the year for hotel occupancy and the 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next few months.

Trade Deficit increased to $98.4 Billion in December - The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported:The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $98.4 billion in December, up $19.5 billion from $78.9 billion in November, revised. December exports were $266.5 billion, $7.1 billion less than November exports. December imports were $364.9 billion, $12.4 billion more than November imports. Exports and imports increased in November. Exports are up 2.5% year-over-year; imports are up 12.4% year-over-year. Both imports and exports have generally increased recently. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that net, exports of petroleum products are positive and have been increasing. The trade deficit with China increased to $25.0 billion from $22.0 billion a year ago. It is likely some importers were trying to beat potential tariffs.

Record high imports pressure US trade deficit (Reuters) -The U.S. trade deficit widened sharply in December as imports surged to a record high against the backdrop of tariff threats, which might have prompted businesses to rush purchases of foreign-made goods like finished metals and computers. The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday showed the United States experienced significant deficits with several trade partners, including China, Mexico and Canada, which have been targeted by President Donald Trump's administration for broad or additional tariffs. Trump on Monday suspended a 25% tariff on Mexican and Canadian goods until next month. An additional 10% levy on goods from China went into effect on Tuesday. Though the new administration has mostly explained the tariffs as related to controlling illegal immigration and movement of illicit drugs, the surge in the deficit could strengthen its argument for a protectionist trade policy. "The strength of imports appears largely driven by businesses rushing orders ahead of potential tariffs, a trend unlikely to reverse any time soon given there is still the risk of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada next month," said Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics. "Even though survey data point to an imminent rebound in exports, this suggests the trade deficit will remain wide this quarter." The trade gap increased 24.7% to $98.4 billion, the highest since March 2022, from a revised $78.9 billion in November, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said. It was the second-largest deficit on record and the monthly increase was biggest since March 2015. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit soaring to $96.6 billion from the previously reported $78.2 billion in November. The trade deficit swelled 17.0% to $918.4 billion in 2024, the largest since 2021. Imports increased 3.5% to an all-time high of $364.9 billion. Goods imports soared 4.0% to $293.1 billion. They were boosted by a $10.8 billion jump in industrial supplies and materials, mostly reflecting a $9.2 billion increase in finished metal shapes, mostly from Switzerland. That raised doubts among some economists that front-loading of imports was the whole story behind the surge in the trade deficit. "Switzerland is pretty far from the top of President Trump's tariff hit list," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. "I assume that this is just a fluky one-off, which means that there is a good chance that the trade gap recedes substantially in January, unless the import-ahead-of-tariffs dynamic kicked in vigorously last month."

Vehicles Sales Decrease to 15.60 million SAAR in January - Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for January: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Start 2025 With 4% Increase in January (pay site). There did not appear to be an end-of-month boost in demand, either as a rebound from the mid-month weather-related losses or pull-ahead volume in case of still-possible future tariff-related price increases. However, January’s gain marked the fourth straight year-over-year increase in volume and fifth consecutive for the seasonally adjusted annual rate. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for January (red). Sales in January (15.60 million SAAR) were down 7.1% from December, and up 3.8% from January 2024. Sales in January were at the consensus forecast.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. This was the best January since 2021.

The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales - An update: The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs) through January 2025. The mix has changed significantly. Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however passenger car sales have trended down over time. Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009 and the pandemic in 2020). The second graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs. Over time the mix has changed toward more and more light trucks and SUVs. Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse. Currently a record 82% of light vehicle sales are light trucks or SUVs.

Heavy Truck Sales Increased 5% YoY in January --This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 534 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 534 thousand SAAR in January, up from 454 thousand in December, and up 4.6% from 510 thousand SAAR in January 2025. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. Currently heavy truck sales are solid. As I mentioned yesterday, light vehicle sales decreased in January. The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Light vehicle sales were at 15.60 million SAAR in January, down from 16.87 million in November, and up 3.8% from 15.03 million in January 2024.

ISM® Manufacturing index Increased to 50.9% in January -The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion. The PMI® was at 50.9% in January, up from 49.2% in December. The employment index was at 50.3%, up from 45.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 55.1%, up from 52.1%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 50.9% January 2025 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. “The Manufacturing PMI® registered 50.9 percent in January, 1.7 percentage points higher compared to the seasonally adjusted 49.2 percent recorded in December. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 57th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index was in expansion territory for the third month after seven months of contraction, strengthening again to a reading of 55.1 percent, 3 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted 52.1 percent recorded in December. The January reading of the Production Index (52.5 percent) is 2.6 percentage points higher than December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 49.9 percent. The index returned to expansion after eight months in contraction. The Prices Index continued in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 54.9 percent, up 2.4 percentage points compared to the reading of 52.5 percent in December. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 44.9 percent, down 1 percentage point compared to the 45.9 percent recorded in December. The Employment Index registered 50.3 percent, up 4.9 percentage points from December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 45.4 percent. This suggests manufacturing expanded in January. This was above the consensus forecast.

ISM® Services Index Decreases to 52.8% in January --The ISM® Services index was at 52.8%, down from 54.0% last month. The employment index increased to 52.3%, from 51.3%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.8% January 2025 Services ISM® Report On Business® “In January, the Services PMI® registered 52.8 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December figure of 54 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 54.5 percent in January, 3.5 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted 58 percent recorded in December. After seasonal adjustments, this is the 56th consecutive month of expansion for the index. The New Orders Index recorded a reading of 51.3 percent in January, 3.1 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December figure of 54.4 percent. The Employment Index remained in expansion territory for the fourth consecutive month; the reading of 52.3 percent is a 1-percentage point increase compared to the seasonally adjusted 51.3 percent recorded in December. This was below consensus expectations.

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 -The DOL reported:In the week ending February 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 207,000 to 208,000. The 4-week moving average was 216,750, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,500 to 212,750. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 216,750. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 7.6 million in December From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 7.6 million on the last business day of December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and total separations were little changed at 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little. The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS. . Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. Jobs openings decreased in December to 7.60 million from 8.12 million in November. The number of job openings (black) were down 15% year-over-year. Quits were down 7% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

ADP: Private Employment Increased 183,000 in January -From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 4.7% “We had a strong start to 2025 but it masked a dichotomy in the labor market,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Consumer-facing industries drove hiring, while job growth was weaker in business services and production.” This was above the consensus forecast of 150,000. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January.

January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, retail trade, and social assistance. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry....The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised up by 49,000, from +212,000 to +261,000, and the change for December was revised up by 51,000, from +256,000 to +307,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 100,000 higher than previously reported. The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.Total payrolls increased by 143 thousand in January. Private payrolls increased by 111 thousand, and public payrolls increased 32 thousand.Payrolls for November and December were revised up 100 thousand, combined. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.In January, the year-over-year change was 2.02 million jobs. Employment was up solidly year-over-year.The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate. The Labor Force Participation Rate was increased to 62.6% in January, from 62.5% in December. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.The Employment-Population ratio increased to 60.1% from 60.0% in December (blue line). The fourth graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.0% in January from 4.1% in December.This was below consensus expectations; however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. On the annual benchmark revision: The seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 589,000. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the total nonfarm employment level for March 2024 was revised downward by 598,000, or -0.4 percent. Not seasonally adjusted, the absolute average benchmark revision over the past 10 years is 0.1 percent.

January jobs report: annual revisions clear up some big discrepancies, but monthly numbers are close to pre-recessionary - My theme for the past several years as to employment has been “deceleration,” as in a gradual cooldown from white hot to red hot to hot to warm. But at some point past “warm,” we get to lukewarm, and then cool, and then chilly. In other words, if it continues at some point “deceleration” transitions into “deterioration.” A “soft landing” would require that the deceleration end, and the numbers stabilize. That’s what I was watching out for last year, as well as this month. And this month, the trend of deceleration continued.The biggest news this month was anticipated. Based on the weak QCEW results, a big downward revision in the benchmark numbers was expected, and happened, as -610,000 total jobs were subtracted from last year’s employment numbers. Eight of the twelve months were revised lower. To the extent there was good news, it was that none of the monthly jobs numbers turned negative.Meanwhile almost 3,000,000 persons were added to the population numbers in the household survey, which was also expected due to the huge influx of immigrants that were reported by the CBO, but had not been reflected in the survey.Below is my in depth synopsis.

• 143,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 111,000. Government jobs increased by 32,000. The three month average was an increase of +237,000.
• The pattern of downward revisions to previous months was broken this month. November was revised upward by 49,000, and December was revised upward by 51,000, for a net increase of 100,000.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, showed an increase of 234,000 jobs excluding the revised population controls. On a YoY basis, this series increased 2,705,000 jobs, or an average of 224,000 monthly.
• The U3 unemployment rate fell -0.1% to 4.0%. With the population revisions, it would be a -0.2% monthly decline. Since the three month average is 4.1% vs. a low of 3.733% for the three month average in the past 12 months, or an increase of less than 0.4%, this means the “Sahm rule” has been taken off the table for now.
• The U6 underemployment rate was unchanged at 7.5%, 1.1% above its low of December 2022.
• Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declined -26,000 to 5.479 million, vs. its post-pandemic low of 4.925 million in early 2023.
• the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, declined -0.3 hours to 40.6 hours, This remains down -0.9 hours from its February 2022 peak of 41.5 hours, but is an average reading over the past 12 months.
• Manufacturing jobs increased 3,000. Nevertheless this series is firmly in decline, as the three month average is close to the lowest since mid year 2022.
• Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs declined -9,700.
• Truck driving increased 3,800.
• Construction jobs increased another 4,000.
• Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by 1,900 to another new post-pandemic high.
• Goods producing jobs as a whole were unchanged, and are now -24,000 below their September peak. This is especially important, because these typically decline before any recession occurs. On a YoY% basis, these jobs are only up 0.26%. Only during the 1985-86 slowdown and for 3 months during the 1990s and 2000s have manufacturing jobs had this anemic a YoY increase without a recession occurring. To reiterate what I wrote three months ago, “in the absence of special factors this would be a serious red flag for oncoming recession.”
• Temporary jobs, which have generally been declining since late 2022, declined by -12,400, after two consecutive increases. These have been declining, by over -550,000 since their peak in March 2022. But this month is still above their October 2024 low, so this may still suggest that the bottom in this metric is in.
• the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer rose 134,000 to 2,400,000. This is neverthess in the middle of its range for the past 12 months.
• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.16, or +0.5%, to $30.84, for a YoY gain of +4.2%, the highest in three months, but in contrast to their post pandemic peak of 7.0% in March 2022. Importantly, this continues to be well above the 2.9% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
• The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers declined -0.6%, which just takes back its big December increase. This measure is up 1.2% YoY, its highest such comparison since last March.
• The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers was unchanged, but is up 5.4% YoY, also its best YoY comparison since last March. This had slowness a pattern or slow deceleration since the end of the pandemic lockdowns, and last month was the lowest since early 2021. But with the benchmark revisions that has disappeared. Now this series shows stability YoY for the past 15 months. So long as inflation does not spike, this is good news, since it means that average households will continue to have more money to spend in real terms.
• Professional and business employment declined -11,000, taking back December’s gain. These tend to be well-paying jobs. After the benchmark revisions, this series now shows to have been negative for the entire past year of a YoY basis, and is now -0.3% YoY, which in the past 80+ years has almost *always* meant recession.
• The employment population ratio was unchanged at 60.1%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate increased 0.1% to 62.6%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.

SUMMARY: As I said in my opening comments, the big news this month was actually in the annual revisions rather than the monthly changes. Close to 3 million people were added to the Household Survey, while -610,000 jobs were subtracted from the Establishment Survey. Both of these were expected. The two surveys had wildly diverged since the beginning of 2022, with strong growth shown in the Establishment Survey, but almost no growth in the Household Survey. With this month’s revisions, about half of that divergence has gone away.On a monthly basis, there were a few pockets of strength, mainly in wages and total payrolls. Labor is still able to command relatively good wage increases. Additionally, the unemployment rate declined -0.1% not counting the annual revisions, and is in concordance with what has been forecast by initial an continuing jobless claims. What was not good at all on a monthly basis was actual employment. The manufacturing workweek declined sharply, and goods employment as a whole has plateaued. As noted above, this has almost always presaged a recession. Gains in manufacturing and construction were anemic. Temporary help positions resumed their decline. Basically job strength is now concentrated in a few areas of construction, and in non-professional services.This report was not quite pre-recessionary, but it was close. Note: This may be the last “clean” employment report we get. The DOGE goons have been interfering at the BLS for the last several days, and a number of data series have already disappeared. We know from COIVD that this Administration believes that if bad news isn’t reported, it didn’t happen. Many economists and forecasters are on the lookout for telltale signs that the data gathering is being compromised.

Huge Upward Adjustment to Employment & Labor Force as Wave of Immigrants is Finally Included, Unemployment Drops, Wage Growth Accelerates: The Annual Revisions Are Here By Wolf Richter - We’ve been discussing this issue – and its impact on employment data – since April after the Congressional Budget Office came out with estimates of actual population growth that included the huge wave of recent immigrants that wasn’t included in the Census Bureau’s population data, and thereby wasn’t included in the employment data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which extrapolates its household survey data to the population estimates from the Census Bureau.Because many of the newly arrived immigrants, legal or illegal, are either working or looking for work, employment and labor force data were understated because they didn’t reflect those immigrants.In December, the Census Bureau released its annual revisions that finally included this population growth of 8 million peopleover the past three years. So we knew that the annual adjustments by the BLS to its household survey data of employment and the labor force would produce a massive spike in January.The BLS sticks the entire population adjustments to the household survey data into January, which created a spike of employment (+2.23 million in January from December) and a spike of the labor force (+2.20 million in January from December) that correct for several years of understatement. The BLS doesn’t revise backwards its household survey data with that population data. These adjustments, up and down, lumped into one month, happen every year, but this year they’re huge.Total employment spiked by 2.23 million in January from December, to 163.9 million, reflecting the adjustment in the household survey data for the massive wave of immigrants, legal and illegal, over the past years.The household survey includes workers who are excluded from nonfarm payrolls reported by establishments, such as self-employed workers whose businesses are not incorporated, farm workers, and private household workers. So, total employment as depicted by the household survey is typically 6-8 million workers higher than nonfarm payrolls.Because of the understatement of total employment in the household survey data over the past few years, that difference between total employment and nonfarm employment shrank to just 2.7 million workers in December.Today, the huge upward adjustment to total employment and the previously announced downward revisions of nonfarm employment (more in a moment) caused the difference to increase to 4.83 million.This chart shows that disconnect over the past two years between total employment (red) and nonfarm employment (as revised, blue), and how it reverted to pre-pandemic trend in January: This is how the spread between total employment in the household survey and nonfarm payrolls from the establishment survey shrank from 6-7 million before the pandemic to 2.7 million in December, and how it reverted to pre-pandemic trend in January (blue line):

Comments on January Employment Report -- The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%.Earlier: January Employment Report: 143 thousand Jobs, 4.0% Unemployment Rate, Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.The 25 to 54 years old participation rate decreased in January at 83.5% from 83.4% in December.The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.5% the previous month.Both are down from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium. The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% YoY in January. From the BLS report: "The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in January. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs." The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 million from 4.36 million in December. This is close to the pre-pandemic levels. These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.5% from 7.5% in the previous month. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. According to the BLS, there are 1.44 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, down from 1.51 million the previous month. This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million. This is above pre-pandemic levels. Through January 2025, the employment report indicated positive job growth for 49 consecutive months, putting the current streak in 2nd place of the longest job streaks in US history (since 1939). This streak survived the annual benchmark revision. Summary:The headline jobs number in the January employment report was below expectations, however, November and December payrolls were revised up by 100,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%.Another decent employment report.

Tariff war with Canada could create a challenge for Ohio’s economy- Being on the brink of trade wars with Mexico and Canada could place Ohio in the crossfire. Billions of dollars worth of goods are imported and exported from the Buckeye state each year. If President Donald Trump’s tariffs are seen through, that could mean high prices for a wide range of items are on it’s way. It’s been a war of words so far. “We don’t need them for the cars. We don’t need them for lumber. We don’t need them for anything. We don’t need them for energy. We have more energy than they do. We don’t need them for energy,” Trump said. Tariff talk is ongoing between Trump and Canada’s leader Justin Trudeau. “This is a choice that, yes, will harm Canadians, but beyond that, it will have real consequences for you, the American people,” Trudeau said. While a 25% tariff on Canadian goods are temporarily on hold, the impact Canadian tariffs could have on Ohio’s economy could hurt consumers. “We may have short term some little pain and people understand that,” Trump said. According to the United States Trade Representative, Ohio exported $21.4 billion in goods to Canada in 2023 making Canada, Ohio’s largest market. That represents 38 percent of the Buckeye state’s total goods exports. Exports like cars, planes and parts, plastics, soaps, iron and steel are just some items that could see price increases. “They will raise costs for you, including food at the grocery stores and gas at the pump,” Trudeau said. According to the Canadian government, Ohio imports $17.9 billion in goods from Canada. Products like crude petroleum, vehicle parts, steel, plastics, animal and vegetable oil, as well as aircrafts and parts. President Trump also imposed a 10% tariff on goods from China. The tariffs on Canada and Mexico is on hold for 30 days as the two countries agree to bolster security at the borders.

Ohio's farmers concerned about new tariffs imposed by President Trump | WOSU Public Media -- One out of every seven jobs in Ohio is tied to agriculture. And Ohio farmers are concerned about the impact of tariffs being put into action by the Trump administration. On Saturday, President Trump signed executive orders to levy 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tax on goods coming from China. He said he is hoping the tariffs will convince those countries to take action on drugs and immigration. But if the past is prologue, those tariffs will have some consequences that farmers fear they will face. In 2018, when Trump imposed tariffs on China, farmers faced significant losses. His administration spent $23 billion on a program to prop up farmers. A 2018 study by Ohio State University found proposed tariffs over six years could decrease a farm’s net worth by 6% and annual net income by 59%. The tariffs imposed this weekend are on Mexico and Canada as well as China. Ohio Farm Bureau Federation spokesman Ty Higgins said farmers are facing a lot of uncertainty right now. “We are talking about the three biggest markets for U.S. ag commodities. And as much concern as there is for products we might bring in from Canada, Mexico, and China, there’s greater concern from the ag sector about what we ship out,” Higgins said. He explained retaliatory action could be taken on commodities grown in the U.S. and exported. He said 20% of farm income comes from exports alone. Higgins says 80% of potash, a substance used by farmers for fertilizer, comes from Canada. “We are going to need that for this growing season. Now, yes, some farmers have already bought their inputs for 2025 but some have not,” Higgins said. “They could find themselves behind the eight ball for one of two reasons – either not having enough potash to apply to their fields for this growing season or paying much more than they are accustomed to because of the short supply.” Higgins said it’s already tough for many farmers and the uncertainty of the impact of tariffs makes it tougher to make ends meet. “We have had a 30% decrease in farm net income over the past two years. The Farm Bill has been extended another year—the Farm Bill from 2018,” Higgins said. He noted a lot of things have changed since 2018. And Higgins said extreme weather has made farming more challenging. All of those complications and the tariffs could also make it harder for farmers to get money from banks because Higgins said lenders would be more cautious due to these uncertainties.

Ohio nurse charged with involuntary manslaughter for patient who went missing -On January 16, Amber Henderson, RN, a nurse who worked at Avenue Warrensville Care and Rehabilitation Center in Warrensville Heights, Ohio, was charged in connection with the death of an elderly patient who went missing from the center. Henderson, 31, was arraigned by video at the Bedford Municipal Court on charges of involuntary manslaughter, a third-degree felony, and two first-degree misdemeanors, including tampering with records and gross patient neglect. Henderson is being charged with involuntary manslaughter in the death of 84-year-old patient Alvera Meuti. Meuti was last seen by staff at 8:40 p.m. on December 23, 2024 during medication administration. Henderson was assigned to take over care of Meuti at 9:00 p.m. that night. However, when she went to check on Meuti around 9:30 p.m., she noticed the patient was not in the room. The nurse assumed the patient was visiting with her brother and did not report her missing until the following day at 6:30 a.m. A “code purple” was issued and minutes later she was located unresponsive, lying on her back, in an outside patio. Nurses attempted to revive her with life-saving measures but were unsuccessful and she was pronounced dead after being transported to South Pointe Hospital. During the police investigation and interview of Henderson it was determined that she was a new nurse, and had only recently graduated from nursing school and obtained her state nursing license. When asked by law enforcement what kind of training she received and its length, Henderson responded that she had only received 30 days of training on day shifts and two weeks on night shifts. Orientation programs for new nurses generally range from six to 12 weeks. Henderson received only eight weeks of orientation, which could have contributed to the patient’s death. One of the primary issues new nurses face once they are allowed to work independently is managing a heavy workload and time management. This type of pressure can lead to a task-oriented approach, leaving no room for critical thinking, a recipe for disaster. According to researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, “nurses’ vigilance at the bedside is essential to their ability to ensure patient safety,” therefore, increasing a nurse’s assignment with more patients and tasks will eventually compromise a nurse’s ability to provide safe care. In addition to nurse-to-patient ratios and increased workload, the quality of on-the-job training may also play a role in patient outcomes.

South Carolina executes Marion Bowman, Jr.: “I’m innocent of the crimes I’m here to die for” - The state seal of South Carolina includes an image of Spes, the Roman goddess of hope, accompanied by the words “Dum Spiro Spero,” Latin for “While I Breathe, I Hope.” On Friday, January 31, the state carried out the execution of Marion Bowman, Jr., snuffing out his breath and life. He had spent more than half of his life on death row. Bowman’s was the first US execution of 2025 and the third in South Carolina since 2011, when the state unofficially halted executions as pharmaceutical companies stopped supplying lethal injection drugs, fearing public concern over suffering of those executed. The state restocked its supply of deadly drugs after it passed a law in 2023 shielding the identity of suppliers. The execution comes in the context of a Trump executive order calling for a sweeping expansion of the death penalty. Bowman was convicted of the 2001 killing of Kandee Martin, 21, a childhood friend. Now 44, he was 20 years old when he was arrested for the murder. He has consistently maintained his innocence. The condemned inmate was led into the execution chamber at the Broad River Correctional Institution for men in Columbia just after 6 p.m. local time. According to media witnesses, he was strapped to a gurney and blanketed with a sheet. After he was injected with a lethal dose of the sedative pentobarbital, his breathing became heavy and his head bobbed up and down before he became still around 6:07 p.m. He was pronounced dead by prison staff at 6:27 p.m. The primary witnesses against Bowman were two men charged in connection with the crime who received reduced sentences, plus a third man who had pending charges in a separate case that were subsequently dropped.

Trump Blocks Cocks From Womens' Locks' -- He did it folks, no more penis'd women in women's sports, or locker rooms. While surrounded by a group of young girls - which would have triggered his predecessor into a predatory sniffing trance frenzy, President Donald Trump signed an executive order keeping men out of women's sports. Absolutely love this.He's so genuine."If you'd like to gather around me, I think I'm going to be okay. Secret Service is worried about them?" pic.twitter.com/5iNugErNge Remember when a trans boy raped a girl in a High School bathroom in Loudoun County, Virginia, then the school covered it up, and when her father came to give the school board hell - he was dragged out and arrested. And Biden's DOJ activated the FBI's counterterrorism division against concerned parents? We are putting every school receiving taxpayer dollars on notice: If you let men take over women's sports teams or invade your locker rooms, you will be investigated for violations of Title IX and risk your federal funding. President Trump Truth Social Post 04:23 PM EST 02/05/25 Normal people around the country applauded the move.

Thousands of workers and students protest Trump’s mass deportation operation - Over the last 72 hours, large protests against Trump’s attacks on immigrants and escalating deportation operation have erupted across the United States. Workers and students, immigrant and US-born alike, have participated in the protests and spoken out powerfully in defense of the democratic rights of everyone regardless of where they were born. While protests against Trump and his scapegoating of immigrants have been a near-daily occurrence since his inauguration January 20, this weekend saw a massive increase in the number of demonstrations, and people participating in them. No doubt this was in part fueled by the Trump administration’s ongoing and violent deportations which are not just targeting alleged “criminals” but workers and family members who have been living in the United States—without a criminal record—for years. Since January 31, protests involving anywhere from a few dozen, to thousands of people have been held major cities throughout the country including San Diego, Sacramento, San Francisco, Riverside and Los Angeles, California, Washington, DC, New York City, Boston, Philadelphia and Chicago; Houston, Austin and Dallas, Texas; Des Moines, Iowa; Phoenix, Arizona; Charlotte, North Carolina; Miami, Florida; Denver, Colorado; Seattle, Washington; Portland, Oregon. In North Little Rock, Arkansas Friday night, dozens of protesters, including many students, rallied in support of immigrants. Demonstrators held signs that read “No human is illegal,” “Immigrants make America Great” and “Fight ignorance, not immigrants.” Protest organizer Angela Baltazar told the local ABC station she organized the rally to oppose Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids on families. “I got split from my parents from the age of three to the age of nine,” Baltazar recalled, “I wouldn’t want any child to experience that, ever.” On Saturday a similar protest was held in front of the state Capitol in Little Rock. In Dallas, Texas for the third day in a row, hundreds of people—including immigrants and their children—protested against the Trump administration’s anti-immigrant policies. On Friday, demonstrators rallied outside an ICE office, while on Sunday hundreds marched downtown for several hours. In Chamblee, Georgia, hundreds of people, many of Hispanic descent, protested in support of immigrants on Saturday, temporarily blocking Buford Highway. The protest started at noon and lasted well into the early evening. Many children were seen holding signs that read “end family deportations.” Joseph Pastor, an organizer of the protest, told Fox 5, “We are basically being hunted down by ICE.” He added, “We live in fear, we are here because we don’t want everyone to live in fear, so we are going to speak out.”

LA high school students walk out to protest ICE raids- Students from multiple high schools in East Los Angeles walked out of class on Tuesday in support of immigrants’ rights and against the Trump administration’s policies of arrest, detention and deportation of migrant workers and their families. Students at Garfield High School walked out at 10:00 am and marched down Whittier Boulevard, blocking traffic. They waved Mexican flags and carried signs and banners reading “lucha contra Trump” [fight against Trump]. Shortly thereafter, students from Oscar De La Hoya, Esteban E. Torres, Bravo Medical and Roosevelt high schools joined the walkout. By 1:00 pm, the student demonstration had reached City Hall. A report by CBS News said that student protesters had breached City Hall barriers by 2:30 pm. The CBS News report continued: School officials encouraged students to stay on campus for safety purposes, and to “express their views on campus.” Los Angeles Unified School District Superintendent Alberto M. Carvalho encouraged students not to stay home, and to protest “within the school facilities.” The student walkout coincided with a third day of protests in downtown Los Angeles against the Trump administration’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids and arrests of thousands of immigrant workers since Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Some immigrants have been detained and flown out of the US on military aircraft to countries such Columbia, Venezuela and Guatemala. While the White House is claiming that those being deported are guilty of crimes in the US, the truth is that the migrants being deported on military flights have been caught up in the ICE dragnet regardless of their immigration or legal status.

Demand for skilled workers boosts undergrad certificates — The shifting labor market has fueled a huge spike in undergraduate certificate programs, which are vastly outpacing the growth in undergraduate enrollment in general. From 2019 to last fall, the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center found a 28.5 percent increase in enrollment in the programs, which are seen both as a way to move into the workforce quicker without a college degree and as a resume-booster for those still working on their bachelor’s. Schools have responded to the needs of communities, creating programs such as certificates for teachers and nurses to help address long-standing shortages or ones in emergency management amid the rise in natural disasters. “Our population has changed and is changing so dramatically, it’s put an incredible pressure on businesses because they can’t find the skilled workers that they need to build the jobs of today and, very importantly, the jobs of tomorrow,” said Edson Barton, CEO and co-founder of YouScience, a college and career readiness platform. “Employers are sitting there saying, ‘Hey, we’re not getting what we need,’ and so, they are putting tremendous pressure on the post-secondary institutions […] to build more programs,” Barton added. Undergraduate certificate programs are courses that focus on teaching a particular skill, most often technical ones, that encompass a wide variety of fields from health care to cybersecurity. Offered by many accredited colleges and universities, they are typically flexible programs that take a year or less to complete. The courses themselves also sometimes get accreditation through relevant agencies to ensure their quality. Undergraduate enrollment more broadly has risen since the devastation of the pandemic, but far more slowly: Last fall was the first time total college enrollment outpaced 2019, and only by 0.4 percent. But dual enrollment, where high school students enroll in college or other post-secondary pathways while still earning their diploma, has had a major increase since the pandemic, growing 7 percent from 2023 to 2024 alone. Catherine Imperatore, research and content director of the Association for Career and Technical Education, said her group has seen many dual-enrolled students entering career and technical education (CTE) programs, especially if they are looking for a credential by the time they finish high school. Data show industries including construction and health care are among the biggest areas of growth for undergraduate certificate programs, which are benefiting significantly from federal investments in infrastructure passed under the Biden administration. “We’ve also seen a growing interest in the apprenticeship model,” Imperatore said, which emphasizes on-the-job experience, though students “may also be getting some training that could be offered through something like a community college certificate program.”

University of Michigan bans pro-Palestinian student group as part of escalating assault on democratic rights -On January 16, the University of Michigan banned the Students Allied for Freedom and Equality (SAFE), the local chapter of the national pro-Palestinian group, Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP). The ban suspends SAFE’s club status for up to two years, depriving the group of access to university facilities and the right to promote its views on campus. It marks the first ever suspension of a legacy student organization in the university’s history. The action is direct retribution for peaceful protests carried out by SAFE against the US-backed Israeli genocide against Palestinians in Gaza since October 2023. SAFE has participated in rallies and an encampment on campus, as well as a protest at the home of a member of the Board of Regents, to demand that the university sever its financial ties to the Zionist regime. The lifting of SAFE’s student club status is part of a wave of repressive actions taken against pro-Palestinian students, faculty and others at colleges and universities in the US and around the world carried out under the fraudulent pretext of combating antisemitism. At least 70,000 Palestinian civilians, mainly women and children, have been killed by Israeli forces with bombs, bullets, combat jets and other weapons supplied by the Biden administration and continued under the fascist President Donald Trump, who has openly called for the removal of the Palestinians from Gaza. Unknown thousands of others have died as a result of the destruction of homes, hospitals and schools and the withholding of food and sanitation from the enclave by Israel, with US support. The university has sent in police to attack and arrest anti-genocide protesters, and Democratic Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel has charged at least 10 protesters with felony crimes at the urging of the university administration and the Board of Regents. On October 31, Stephanie Jackson, an outside consultant hired by UM, published a complaint on behalf of the university through the UM Student Organization Advancement and Recognition (SOAR) office. Her complaint alleged that SAFE had violated the Center for Campus Involvement’s (CCI’s) Standards of Conduct for Recognized Student Organizations. The complaint cites a protest outside UM Board of Regents and Republican Party member Sarah Hubbard’s home on May 15, a “die-in” protest against the Gaza genocide on August 28 during UM’s annual Festifall student club event, and a tabling event on October 16 during Open MiC (Michigan in Color) Night on the campus Diag. Jackson’s complaint claims SAFE’s involvement in the Festifall protest “threatened and intimidated” students.

Trump’s executive orders put New York City college students in the crosshairs -- From October 2023 through 2024, Democrats and Republicans at the federal, state and local levels launched sweeping and brutal retaliation against pro-Palestinian protesters on US campuses. The witch-hunt whipped up during Congressional hearings against university administrators developed into an all-out purge of students and faculty opposed to the ongoing US-Israeli genocide in Gaza. Now the Trump administration is further escalating and integrating this assault, which began under President Joe Biden and the Democrats, into its plans for presidential dictatorship. Trump has nominated Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, who played a central role in the witch-hunt hearings, for US ambassador to the United Nations.Last Wednesday, the Trump White House ordered the cancellation of student visas and threatened to deport students whom it slanders as “perpetrators of unlawful anti-Semitic harassment and violence.” As we wrote, this order is “aimed at transforming American universities into a surveillance and enforcement arm of the military-intelligence-immigration enforcement apparatus.”Following from the order, the United States Department of Education announced late Monday that it has launched an investigation into five universities. The investigation will target Columbia University as well as Northwestern University, Portland State University, the University of California, Berkeley and the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities.Craig Trainor, the Trump-appointed Acting Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights in the department, said in a statement on the Department of Education’s website:Too many universities have tolerated widespread antisemitic harassment and the illegal encampments that paralyzed campus life last year, driving Jewish life and religious expression underground. The Biden Administration’s toothless resolution agreements did shamefully little to hold those institutions accountable. Today, the Department is putting universities, colleges, and K-12 schools on notice: this administration will not tolerate continued institutional indifference to the wellbeing of Jewish students on American campuses, nor will it stand by idly if universities fail to combat Jew hatred and the unlawful harassment and violence it animates.Columbia’s Office of Public Affairs released a statement that reads, “We look forward to ongoing work with the new federal administration to combat antisemitism and ensure the safety and wellbeing of our students, faculty, and staff.”Columbia University and New York University (NYU) in New York City are central targets of Trump’s executive orders. New York is the second most popular state for international students after California, and Columbia and NYU have been prominent centers of pro-Palestinian opposition on US campuses. Columbia University in particular started the movement for “Gaza Solidarity Encampments” on campuses in the US and around the world in 2024. Zionist provocateurs in the city are coming forward with offers to cooperate directly with the Trump administration in enforcing the executive orders. Elizabeth Rand, the parent of an NYU student and the founder of a Zionist Facebook group called “Mothers Against College Antisemitism,” shared a link to the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tip line with the message, “Please tell everyone you know who is at a university to file complaints about foreign students and faculty who support Hamas.”On Monday, NYU’s Association of University Professors (AAUP) reported that Rand has developed a close political relationship with NYU President Linda Mills. The report found that Mills and Rand have been in close discussion regarding disciplinary actions against pro-Palestinian students, including the fact that “President Mills interfered with NYU’s disciplinary process specifically at Rand’s request, having a conduct hearing for a particular NYU student preemptively dropped.” Elsewhere in the city, members of the fascist group Betar US, which claims descent from the Zionist terrorist Ze’ev Jabotinsky, staged a provocation at the New School, attempting to hand students campaigning for a pro-Palestinian event “beepers,” in an obvious reference to Israel’s terror attack in Lebanon last year. As of this writing, Betar’s pinned post on X calls on its supporters to “assist @ICEgov in deportation efforts” and “submit names of attendees” to a vigil for Hind Rajab, a six-year-old girl killed by the Israeli military, “to @realDonaldTrump.”

Trump announces plans to gut the Kennedy Center board and appoint himself chairman - President Donald Trump announced an aggressive plan Friday evening to gut the existing board of trustees at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts and oust its chairman, billionaire philanthropist David Rubenstein, a remarkable move aimed at remaking the nation’s cultural center.Trump said he would be appointing himself as chairman of the board.“At my direction, we are going to make the Kennedy Center in Washington D.C., GREAT AGAIN. I have decided to immediately terminate multiple individuals from the Board of Trustees, including the Chairman, who do not share our Vision for a Golden Age in Arts and Culture,”Trump said in a post to Truth Social. “We will soon announce a new Board, with an amazing Chairman, DONALD J. TRUMP!” Trump has sought to reshape the use of executive authority since taking office last month, and this effort amounts to a striking and personal example of retribution aimed at political enemies. Rubenstein, the board’s current chairman, is an ally of former President Joe Biden.Trump’s announcement also dove directly into the culture wars as he called out the center’s programming.Trump continued, “Just last year, the Kennedy Center featured Drag Shows specifically targeting our youth — THIS WILL STOP. The Kennedy Center is an American Jewel, and must reflect the brightest STARS on its stage from all across our Nation. For the Kennedy Center, THE BEST IS YET TO COME!” Presidents appoint members to the board on a rolling basis. It was not immediately clear who would be impacted by the news.“The Kennedy Center is aware of the post made recently by POTUS on social media,” the center said in a statement. “We have received no official communications from the White House regarding changes to our board of trustees. We are aware that some members of our board have received termination notices from the administration.”The center acknowledged that its governing statute did not bar the new administration from replacing board members but noted, “This would be the first time such action has been taken with the Kennedy Center’s board.”CNN has reached out to several members who were appointed by Democratic presidents for comment and to a spokesperson for Shonda Rhimes, who serves as the board’s treasurer. Reached for comment Friday evening, one member of the board who was appointed by a Democratic president said they had not yet received any communication from the Kennedy Center about their status on the board. Current members appointed by Trump include Lee Greenwood, Paolo Zampolli, and Attorney General Pamela Bondi.Last week, the Kennedy Center’s president, Deborah Rutter, announced plans to step down at the end of the year. The board had started a search for her replacement and retained a headhunter. Choosing her successor, it appears, will fall to the president.

The #1 cause of maternal death in the US: suicide/homicide - The United States has one of the highest maternal mortality rates in the developed world — and it’s getting worse. The rate is higher than in countries like Egypt and Romania. While medical complications such as hemorrhage and infection have traditionally been blamed, new research points to an unexpected and deeply troubling cause: violence.According to a new study, homicide and suicide are the leading causes of maternal death in the US. Yet, these deaths are often excluded from official maternal mortality statistics.“Many people are surprised when they hear that violence is the leading cause of death in pregnancy,” says the study’s lead author Hooman Azad, MD, MPH, a fourth-year resident in the Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology at New York’s Columbia University Irving Medical Center.Azad and colleagues carried out the most comprehensive review of maternal deaths. They reviewed CDC data from 2005 to 2022, while previous studies looked at either state-level data or data from multiple databases, which can be inconsistent.Over this period, there were 20,421 pregnant deaths. Out of those, 11% were due to homicide and suicide. Specifically, 6.6% were homicides and 4.4% were suicides. Over half of these involved firearms.This rate is much, much higher than for non-pregnant women. Researchers suggest that, in light of this, violent fatalities should also be considered in the maternal mortality rate.“Right now, the definition of maternal mortality does not include death by homicide. I’m not sure this is correct — being pregnant or postpartum significantly increases the risk of death by homicide, and more pregnant women die of violence than any individual medical cause. Part of the reason violence is not recognized as the leading cause of death during pregnancy is because we don’t include homicide and suicide in the definition of maternal mortality.”Like many health crises in the US, this issue disproportionately affects Black women. The study found that young Black mothers (ages 18-24) experience homicide at nearly four times the national average. Another big disparity came with gun legislation. States that enacted firearm legislation had a 20-30% reduction in maternal firearm deaths. This is unsurprising and goes in line with previous research showing that firearm legislation reduces homicides and suicides.Ultimately, this is yet another health crisis flying right in front of our faces, yet it remains largely overlooked in policy discussions and public awareness.“There’s a misconception that most maternal deaths happen in hospitals or healthcare settings, and that’s simply not the case,” says another study author Mary D’Alton, MD, from the Columbia University Irving Medical Center. D’Alton also serves as director of services at the Sloane Hospital for Women at New York-Presbyterian. “We need more education about this serious national issue so we can begin to take steps to address it as clinicians as well as at the policy level.”

Women speak 3,000 more words daily than men during midlife, study shows - The stereotype that women are much more talkative than men is pervasive across many cultures, but a widely reported study by University of Arizona researchers in 2007 refuted the claim, finding that men and women speak roughly the same number of words per day—around 16,000.A new, larger follow-up to that study paints a more nuanced picture, suggesting that women may be the chattier gender, but only during a certain period of life.The work is published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

Man on carnivore diet develops yellowish nodules on his hands, feet and elbows -- A trio of cardiologists, two at Tampa General Hospital and the third at the University of Texas' MD Anderson Cancer Center, have reported an incident of an adult man developing yellowish nodules on his hands, feet and elbows after adopting a carnivore diet. In their paper published in the journal JAMA Cardiology, Konstantinos Marmagkiolis, Jaime Caballero, and Cezar Iliescu, describe the symptoms of a patient who had come to Tampa General seeking aid after experiencing yellowish nodules appearing on various parts of his body, and their diagnosis. The patient, a man in his 40s, told the doctors that the nodules had appeared three weeks prior to his hospital visit. After questioning, they determined that the patient had adopted the so-called carnivore diet approximately eight months prior to the appearance of the nodules. The carnivore diet is a fad diet based on eating large amounts of animal fats and very little of anything else. The patient in this case reported eating nearly 10 pounds of butter, cheese and other fatty foods every day since embarking on the diet—even going so far as to add fat to the hamburgers he consumed daily. Blood tests showed the patient's cholesterol was approximately four times normal levels. The doctors diagnosed the patient with xanthelasma, a condition in which yellowish deposits of cholesterol build up in various parts of the body—in this case, on the palms, the soles of his feet and his elbows. His case had progressed to the point that some of the cholesterol was pushing through cracks in the skin. The doctors advised the man to cut back on his fat intake. But they also noted that doing so would not get rid of the nodules—they required surgical excision or burning them with liquid nitrogen. They also reminded the patient that such high levels of cholesterol could lead to a host of other conditions such as cardiovascular disease, a greatly increased risk of stroke, and eventually, liver problems.

The lasting impact of PTSD on Vietnam veterans: Research links combat to chronic conditions more than 50 years later -- Two major new studies from the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health reveal that veterans of the Vietnam War continue to face significant psychological and physical health challenges decades after their combat experience. The research, one of the longest observational studies of Vietnam veterans to date, finds that PTSD and combat exposure are strongly linked to cardiovascular disease and chronic illnesses, as well as ongoing psychological distress, with effects persisting up to 50 years after their service. Published in the Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, the studies are the result of a unique, 35-year-long investigation into the health and well-being of now aging Vietnam War veterans. A subgroup of 729 still living veterans deployed to Vietnam, drawn from a broader sample of 12,400 men who served in the U.S. Armed Forces during the Vietnam War, were surveyed over three data collection periods (1984, 1998, and 2020). The study shows that both combat exposure and PTSD are key predictors of long-term physical and mental health outcomes. "Combat exposure and PTSD were strong predictors of heart disease and other chronic illnesses in veterans, especially those who faced the most intense combat,". "This research reinforces how the trauma of war continues to affect veterans long after the war ends."The study's findings are especially concerning regarding veterans' cardiovascular health: 28% of participants reported being diagnosed with heart disease, with those who experienced higher levels of combat exposure being twice as likely to report heart disease compared to those with less exposure. PTSD was also strongly associated with increased rates of chronic conditions such as arthritis (46.5%), sleep apnea (33%), and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) (23.5%)."These findings are significant not only for veterans but for public health as a whole," "The ongoing health risks, particularly cardiovascular disease, highlight the need for long-term care strategies that account for both the psychological and physical burdens of PTSD." A form of PTSD where veterans' symptoms fall below the threshold for a formal diagnosis—was also identified as a significant contributor to health issues. Veterans with sub-threshold PTSD were found to have worse physical and mental health outcomes than those who never experienced PTSD. Despite the clear evidence of distress, veterans with sub-threshold PTSD are often ineligible for Veterans Affairs (VA) services, highlighting a critical gap in the current health care system. "Veterans with sub-threshold PTSD suffer significant health burdens that are often overlooked," said Steven Stellman, emphasizing the need for updated VA policies to include these veterans in care and treatment programs. The study tracking the psychosocial aspects of combat exposure identified four distinct patterns of PTSD over 35 years. In 2020, 9% of veterans still had PTSD, with 15.5% of those who had been exposed to heavy combat. Additionally, 25% had sub-threshold PTSD, while 10% had PTSD in the past but no longer exhibited symptoms. More than half (56%) of the participants never experienced PTSD. Those with PTSD or sub-threshold PTSD reported significantly worse life satisfaction, higher levels of anxiety and depression, and poorer overall health. Veterans with PTSD or sub-threshold PTSD had higher rates of divorce and separation, especially those who had been exposed to more intense combat. These long-term mental health effects contribute to the complex, multifaceted challenges faced by aging veterans. With an average age of 72, this cohort of veterans is at a critical stage in life, and their ongoing health problems necessitate continued attention from both health care providers and policymakers. The researchers call for a more comprehensive approach to veterancare, one that considers the full spectrum of PTSD symptoms, including sub-threshold cases, and addresses both the psychological and physical toll of combat.

Argentina says it, too, plans to pull out of World Health Organization -- Two weeks after US President Donald Trump took office and said the United States would be withdrawing for the World Health Organization (WHO), Argentina President Javier Mileisaid today his country, too, would be pulling out of the international organization. A spokesman for Milei cited "deep differences" between Milei and the WHO, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. In astatement posted on X, Milei said the WHO promoted "endless quarantines" without scientific support during the pandemic."It is urgent to rethink from the international community why supranational organizations exist, funded by all, that do not meet the objectives for which they were created, engage in international politics, and seek to impose themselves above member countries," the statement read. Milei's complaints about the WHO echo Trump's, who long criticized pandemic recommendations from the WHO. Trump also said the United States pays an unfair amount to the WHO based on the US population.The United States has been the WHO's biggest funder, supplying about 15% of the agency's budget. Argentina was expected to provide only about $8 million of the WHO's estimated $6.9 billion 2024-25 budget, according to a report from the Associated Press.Milei is a libertarian who was elected in 2023. Over the last year, Trump has called Milei his favorite president. Milei was the first foreign leader to meet with Trump after Trump’s presidential victory in November.Today WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, wrote on X, "These times are anything but dull."WHO Executive Director Michael J. Ryan, MD, MPH, said, "We should be very sad to think that they would leave, but the 193 other (countries) will get on with the business of protecting health, providing health, and promoting health."According to the BBC, Milei is expected to sign an executive order in the coming weeks formalizing his request to remove Argentina from the WHO.Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, said he worries today's news is a sign of what he called the "WHO flu," whereby countries pull out of the global health organization for political reasons."If other countries want to be like Trump and the US and be in his good standing, they could follow suit," he said.

Post-infection immunity may wane faster after SARS-CoV-2 Omicron than after previous strains -Infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant confers weak, short-term protection against reinfection, compared with the much more robust and durable protection provided by earlier variants, which highlights the need for periodic vaccine updates, a Cornell University Qatar–led study suggests.The researchers used a test-negative, case-control study design to compare the efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron infection against reinfection and poor outcomes in Qataris with that offered by infection with previously dominant strains such as Alpha, Beta, and Delta. COVID-positive people were matched with COVID-negative controls in a 1:2 ratio by sex, age-group, nationality, number of underlying medical conditions, vaccine doses received, week of COVID-19 test, testing method, and reason for testing.The results were published yesterday in Nature."The arrival of the Omicron variant marked a major shift, introducing numerous extra mutations in the spike gene compared with earlier variants," the study authors wrote. "These evolutionary changes have raised concerns regarding their potential impact on immune evasion, disease severity and the effectiveness of vaccines and treatments." The estimated effectiveness of a pre-Omicron infection in preventing reinfection with a pre-Omicron strain was 81.1%, regardless of symptoms. The median interval between the previous infection and the study COVID-19 test was 252 days. The estimated effectiveness against symptomatic reinfection with a pre-Omicron strain was 86.8%, with no evidence of waning over time. The median interval between infection and the study COVID-19 test was 244 days. Subgroup analyses by vaccination status yielded comparable results. The effectiveness of a pre-Omicron infection against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 on reinfection with a pre-Omicron strain was 98.0%, with no waning over time after infection.The protection against symptomatic or asymptomatic reinfection conferred by natural infection by Omicron, however, which emerged in late 2021, was 53.6%. The median interval between the previous infection and the study COVID-19 test was 245 days. Effectiveness rapidly declined after the previous infection, dropping from 81.3% at 3 to 6 months to 59.8% in the next 3 months and 27.5% in the 3 months after that. Protection was negligible after 1 year. Efficacy was 59.5% in the first year, plummeting to 4.8% thereafter. Overall effectiveness against symptomatic reinfection was 45.4%, declining rapidly thereafter. The median interval between the previous infection and the study COVID-19 test was 301 days. Effectiveness of Omicron infection in preventing severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 after reinfection with Omicron was 100%. There was no evidence for waning effectiveness after previous infection. "Before Omicron, natural infection provided strong and durable protection against reinfection, with minimal waning over time," the researchers wrote. "However, during the Omicron era, protection was robust only for those recently infected, declining rapidly over time and diminishing within a year." Differences in protection against reinfection may stem from distinct evolutionary pressures acting on SARS-CoV-2 before and after the emergence of Omicron, the authors said: "In the pre-Omicron era, with a large proportion of individuals remaining immune naive because of non-pharmaceutical interventions and delayed scale-up of vaccination, intrinsic transmissibility may have been the primary driver of viral adaptation." "Conversely, following the very large and widespread Omicron wave in early 2022…most individuals possessed some level of immunity, either from infection or vaccination," they added. "This may have shifted the dominant evolutionary pressure towards immune escape through not only antigenic drift, but also recombination and convergent evolution as the adaptive mechanisms for the virus."The findings underscore the dynamic interaction between viral evolution and host immunity, which the researchers said highlights the need for continued monitoring and periodic vaccine updates to restore immunity and counter viral immune evasion.

Nursing homes used unproven COVID measures and didn't use vaccines, antivirals enough, review finds -- Few of the many nonpharmacologic efforts to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in nursing homes during the pandemic were evidence-based, and vaccinations and antiviral drugs were underused, concludes a scoping review published late last week in JAMA Health Forum.Boston University–led researchers analyzed the federal COVID-19 Skilled Nursing Facility (SNF) Database to determine trends over time in rates of infection, death, testing, vaccination, and treatment among residents and staff, as well as shortages of staff and personal protective equipment (PPE) from 2020 through 2023. They also searched the literature to identify evidence on the use and efficacy of 16 pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic disease-mitigation measures among residents from May 2023 to April 2024 and collected weekly data on COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Healthcare Safety Network database. "By the end of 2020, despite only representing 1% of the US population, SNF residents constituted 4% of all COVID-19 cases and 31% of its deaths," the study authors noted. "SNF residents are highly susceptible to COVID-19 infection because of their age, comorbidities, and frailty."About one fifth of SNFs reported staffing shortages in July 2020, which increased through 2022, the most recent year with available data. While the size of the SNF workforce has not rebounded to prepandemic levels, staff-to-resident ratios appear to have recovered."Multiple studies evaluated the associations between staffing and COVID-19 outcomes," the researchers wrote. "Most found that higher staffing, measured as hours per day, were associated with fewer resident cases and deaths, consistent with more staff facilitating increased infection control protocol adherence (eg, PPE, etc)."While PPE was recommended for healthcare settings throughout the pandemic, 20% of SNFs experienced shortages into 2021, and many continued to admit residents."Several studies reported staff nonadherence to PPE use protocols," the investigators wrote. "A cross-sectional study of 13,156 SNFs found a significant association between N95 mask shortages and prevalence of any COVID-19 case, but no US studies have evaluated adherence and COVID-19 incidence. Furthermore, no US studies have compared the importance of different PPE types (eg, gloves, masks, eyewear, or gowns)."Routine COVID-19 testing was limited due to supply shortages in 2020, with many SNFs restricting testing to only residents or those with symptoms. "Test result turnaround times, often 3 days or longer in 2020, likely reduced preventive testing's efficacy," the authors noted. "Variation of testing intensity persisted in 2021 to 2022 with the majority of SNFs performing fewer than 1 screening test per week for staff or residents."One study showed that, before vaccine availability, SNFs with the highest test volumes had 12% and 14% fewer COVID-19 cases and deaths per outbreak, respectively, than those with the lowest volumes. Visitor restrictions were widely implemented, decreasing foot traffic 34%, but evidence for this measure was scarce. Many SNFs tried to substitute virtual visits for in-person visits, but only 22% of residents of assisted-living or SNFs reported weekly contact with family or friends, down from 56% in 2019. And no studies evaluated the effectiveness of restricting social activities such as communal dining in SNFs, despite their widespread implementation early in the pandemic. Isolating residents or housing them in groups by infection status was not implemented universally. Multiple studies found that adherence to quarantine guidelines on admissions didn't lead to fewer outbreaks after adjusting for community COVID-19 incidence, but a cross-sectional study of SNFs in England found that dedicating specific staff for infected patients was tied to a lower outbreak risk. A higher average number of residents per room, higher bed occupancy, and SNFs with shared bedrooms were linked to higher COVID-19 rates in most studies, and crowding predicted the number of infections and deaths among SNFs with existing outbreaks. Other than a single uncontrolled study, evidence about the association between ventilation technologies and outbreaks was lacking. "Suboptimal hand hygiene was reported in nearly a third of SNFs in 2020, but no research addressed its association with outcomes," the researchers said. "Lack of controlled studies limits our ability to draw conclusions regarding the impact of crowding and the physical environment on infection spread."

US hospital data show high rates of antibiotic prescribing for COVID, other viruses throughout pandemic - Data from more than 800 US hospitals show that, despite improvements over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, antibiotic prescribing for COVID-19 and other viral acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) remained higher than it should be, researchers reported this week inOpen Forum Infectious Diseases.The study, led by researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison School of Medicine and Public Health, analyzed antibiotic prescribing at 803 US hospitals, focusing specifically on antibiotic prescribed to patients admitted for COVID-19 from March 2020 through December 2023 and patients admitted for non-COVID viral ARTIs from January 2019 through December 2023. While the initial spike in antibiotic prescribing at US hospitals linked to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has been well-documented, the researchers wanted to assess the impact of the pandemic on antibiotic usage over time.The study included 513,698 hospital encounters for COVID-19 and 106,932 for non-COVID viral ARTIs. In March 2020, antibiotics were prescribed for 82.7% of COVID-19 admissions. The rate of antibiotic prescribing for COVID fell to 30.5% in May 2022, with peaks of 50.8% in July 2021 during the Delta surge and 41.7% in July 2022 during the Omicron surge, then levels decreased to 33.8% in December 2023. For other viral ARTIs, the rate of antibiotic prescribing was 55.8% in January 2019, rose to 64.7% in July 2019, peaked at 68.1% in June 2020, declined to 40% in December 2022, then rose to 58.1% in April 2023.Overall, 45.8% of COVID-19 admissions and 51.2% of viral ARTI admissions received at least one dose of antibiotic from March 2020 through December 2023. "The perpetuation of high rates of potentially unnecessary antibiotic prescribing demonstrates a continued need for improved diagnostics, diagnostic stewardship, and antimicrobial stewardship programs to reduce antibiotic overprescribing for viral ARTIs," the study authors wrote.

Report: Severe COVID can catalyze arterial plaque growth, sparking deadly heart problems Severe COVID-19 infection can trigger extensive inflammation, resulting in the rapid growth of plaque in the coronary arteries and a higher risk of heart attack, stroke, and other life-threatening cardiovascular events for as long as 1 year, reports a Fudan University–led research team in China.The retrospective analysis of a prospective study, published yesterday in Radiology, included 803 patients who underwent serial coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) between September 2018 and October 2023. The researchers assessed 2,108 coronary artery lesions in 690 COVID-19 patients and 480 lesions in 113 matched uninfected patients.The median time between the first and second CCTA was 3 years, while a median of 7 months elapsed between COVID-19 infection and the second CCTA, and median follow-up was 9 months after the second CCTA. The average patient age was 63.9 years, and 67.6% were men. Similar proportions of infected and uninfected participants were vaccinated against COVID-19 (about 89%) and received boosters (about 56%).At baseline, the average stenosis, or narrowing of an artery, per lesion was 31.3%, and only 8.1% of lesions had a stenosis diameter of 50% or greater. COVID-19 infection was tied to a larger increase in percentage of stenosis diameter (1.0% vs 0.4% per year in uninfected patients), leading to a higher average percentage of stenosis diameter (34.2% vs 32.5%) and proportion of lesions with a stenosis diameter of 50% or more (12.6% vs 8.5%) at follow-up.COVID-infected patients showed accelerated progression rates of total coronary atherosclerotic volume (0.90% vs 0.62%), with diverse effects on different kinds of plaques, including a reduction in calcified plaque constituents (0.12% vs 0.20% per year) and greater advancement of noncalcified segments of atherosclerotic lesions (0.78% vs 0.42%).Target lesion failures (composite of cardiac death, target-lesion heart attack, and target-lesion revascularizations) occurred in 150 lesions (6 cardiac deaths, 40 target-lesion heart attacks, and 104 target-lesion revascularizations) in infected patients and in 13 lesions (0 cardiac deaths, 2 target-lesion heart attacks, and 11 target-lesion revascularizations) in their uninfected counterparts. Relative to plaque volumes in uninfected patients, volumes grew faster in COVID-19 patients, whose lesions developed into high-risk plaques at a greater rate (20.1% vs 15.8%). Infected patients also were more likely to have coronary inflammation (27% vs 19.9%) and a higher risk of target lesion failure (10.4% vs 3.1%), an indicator of increased risk of heart attack or stroke. Previous infection was associated with worse cardiovascular outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.9). "COVID-19, caused by SARS-CoV-2, is initially characterized by acute lung injury and respiratory failure," senior author Junbo Ge, MD, of Fudan University, said in a press release. "However, emerging evidence indicates COVID-19 also involves an extreme inflammatory response that can affect the cardiovascular system.""Inflammation following COVID-19 can lead to ongoing plaque growth, particularly in high-risk, noncalcified plaques," he added. "Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection are at increased risk for myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome and stroke for up to a year."

After COVID-19, kids more likely to have GI symptoms for up to 2 years Researchers today in JAMA Network Open say children with previous COVID-19 infection have a 25% to 28% higher risk of developing new gastrointestinal (GI) tract symptoms for up to 2 years than kids who did not report SARS-CoV-2 infections. Studies in adults have shown that the risk of developing new GI symptoms, including abdominal pain, irritable bowel syndrome (IBS), and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), is increased in the year following COVID-19 infection, but it is unknown if kids are at the same increased risk. Though long COVID, or post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 (PASC), is more common in adults than in kids, 1.3% of US children may be affected with the condition, the authors said. (But see the findings of another new study below.) In today's cohort study, researchers compared outcomes among 1,576,933 pediatric patients, of whom 413,455 patients had documented SARS-CoV-2 infection and 1,163,478 did not. The patients were seen at 29 US healthcare centers from March 1, 2020, to September 1, 2023. Participants included patients 18 years or younger with at least 6 months of follow-up; the average age of the study population was 7.3 years, and 52% were males. Nine GI tract symptoms within two follow-up periods were assessed, including abdominal pain, bloating, constipation, diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting, as well as functional dyspepsia (indigestion), GERD, and IBS. The investigators tracked symptoms during the post-acute phase (28 to 179 days after entering the study) and chronic phase (180 to 729 days later, or 6 months to 2 years). Overall, the risk of GI symptoms 6 months to 2 years after COVID-19 was 25% higher in the post-acute phase (8.64% vs 6.85%; adjusted risk ratio [ARR], 1.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.24 to 1.27) compared with non-COVID patients. In the chronic phase, it was 28% higher (12.60% vs 9.47%; ARR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.26 to 1.30). The risk of experiencing abdominal pain in the COVID-19–positive group was 2.54%, compared with 2.06% in the COVID-19–negative group, an ARR of 1.14 (95% CI, 1.11 to 1.17). Diarrhea was reported 40% more frequently for kids with COVID-19 (2.30% compared to 1.57%), with an ARR of 1.40 (95% CI, 1.36 to 1.43). The risk of IBS was not statistically significant after adjusting for confounding variables, however. During the post-COVID chronic phase, the heightened risk persisted for abdominal pain (ARR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.22 to 1.27). Children who were hospitalized for COVID-19 were at increased risk for GI symptoms in both the post-acute and chronic phase. "These findings underscore the potential for prolonged GI tract issues in pediatric COVID-19 cases, suggesting that a history of COVID-19 should be considered in evaluating persistent GI tract symptoms," the authors concluded. In related research, a recent study in Clinical Infectious Diseases suggests that the rate of long COVID among US children may be as high as 4%, and rates among US adults as high as 10% to 26%, depending on what phenotype, or definition, was used for the condition. The study estimated long-COVID incidence among adult and pediatric populations in three nationwide research networks of electronic health records participating in the RECOVER Initiative. Each network had its own long-COVID definition for symptoms seen 30 to 180 days after infection.

Pediatric long-COVID levels hold steady in US, result in activity limitations A research letter published yesterday in JAMA Pediatrics shows that long-COVID levels in US kids held steady at low levels in 2022 and 2023, with 80% of kids with post-COVID symptoms reporting activity limitations. Researchers analyzed data from the 2023 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), in which parents were asked if their child had a prior COVID-19 illness. For children with prior COVID-19 illness, parents reported whether their children had any symptoms lasting 3 months or longer that were not present before they had COVID-19. "Parents of these children were asked about reduced ability to carry out any daily activities vs prior to having COVID-19 illness (not at all, a little, a lot)," the authors wrote. The analytic sample used for the study included 7,585 children with a mean age of 8.8 years, with 48.9% of them girls.Overall in 2023, 1.4% of children surveyed had ever experienced long-COVID symptoms and 0.4% were currently experiencing long-COVID symptoms at the time of the survey.Prevalence of long-COVID symptoms was associated with older age (12 to 17 years, 2.3%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7% to 2.9%).These numbers did not differ significantly from 2022 prevalence rates.The authors assessed socioeconomic factors among children with long COVID, or post-COVID condition (PCC), as well. Prevalence of ever experiencing long COVID increased with decreasing family income (<100% income-to-poverty ratio, 2.6%; 95% CI, 1.5% to 3.6%)."Prevalence of ever experiencing PCC was higher among Hispanic and non-Hispanic White children than both non-Hispanic Black children and children from another or multiple races," the authors said.Of note, among children currently experiencing long COVID, 80.0% (95% CI, 62.8% to 91.7%) had activity limitation of some sort that they did not have prior to contracting COVID-19."The large proportion of children experiencing PCC with any activity limitation highlights the need to examine the severity of activity limitation, functional outcomes, and days lost from school," the authors concluded.

Mounting research shows that COVID-19 leaves its mark on the brain, including significant drops in IQ scores - From the very early days of the pandemic, brain fog emerged as a significant health condition that many experience after COVID-19. Brain fog is a colloquial term that describes a state of mental sluggishness or lack of clarity and haziness that makes it difficult to concentrate, remember things and think clearly. Fast-forward four years and there is now abundant evidence that being infected with SARS-CoV-2 – the virus that causes COVID-19 – can affect brain health in many ways. In addition to brain fog, COVID-19 can lead to an array of problems, including headaches, seizure disorders, strokes, sleep problems, and tingling and paralysis of the nerves, as well as several mental health disorders. A large and growing body of evidence amassed throughout the pandemic details the many ways that COVID-19 leaves an indelible mark on the brain. But the specific pathways by which the virus does so are still being elucidated, and curative treatments are nonexistent. Now, two 2024 studies published in the New England Journal of Medicine shed further light on the profound toll of COVID-19 on cognitive health. Here are some of the most important studies to date documenting how COVID-19 affects brain health:

• Large epidemiological analyses showed that people who had COVID-19 were at an increased risk of cognitive deficits, such as memory problems.
• Imaging studies done in people before and after their COVID-19 infections show shrinkage of brain volume and altered brain structure after infection.
• A study of people with mild to moderate COVID-19 showed significant prolonged inflammation of the brain and changes that are commensurate with seven years of brain aging.
• Severe COVID-19 that requires hospitalization or intensive care may result in cognitive deficits and other brain damage that are equivalent to 20 years of aging.
• Laboratory experiments in human and mouse brain organoids designed to emulate changes in the human brain showed that SARS-CoV-2 infection triggers the fusion of brain cells. This effectively short-circuits brain electrical activity and compromises function.
• Autopsy studies of people who had severe COVID-19 but died months later from other causes showed that the virus was still present in brain tissue. This provides evidence that contrary to its name, SARS-CoV-2 is not only a respiratory virus, but it can also enter the brain in some individuals. But whether the persistence of the virus in brain tissue is driving some of the brain problems seen in people who have had COVID-19 is not yet clear.
• Studies show that even when the virus is mild and exclusively confined to the lungs, it can still provoke inflammation in the brain and impair brain cells’ ability to regenerate.
• COVID-19 can also disrupt the blood brain barrier, the shield that protects the nervous system – which is the control and command center of our bodies – making it “leaky.” Studies using imaging to assess the brains of people hospitalized with COVID-19 showed disrupted or leaky blood brain barriers in those who experienced brain fog.
• A large preliminary analysis pooling together data from 11 studies encompassing almost 1 million people with COVID-19 and more than 6 million uninfected individuals showed that COVID-19 increased the risk of development of new-onset dementia in people older than 60 years of age.

Most recently, a new study published in the New England Journal of Medicine assessed cognitive abilities such as memory, planning and spatial reasoning in nearly 113,000 people who had previously had COVID-19. The researchers found that those who had been infected had significant deficits in memory and executive task performance.This decline was evident among those infected in the early phase of the pandemic and those infected when the delta and omicron variants were dominant. These findings show that the risk of cognitive decline did not abate as the pandemic virus evolved from the ancestral strain to omicron.In the same study, those who had mild and resolved COVID-19 showed cognitive decline equivalent to a three-point loss of IQ. In comparison, those with unresolved persistent symptoms, such as people with persistent shortness of breath or fatigue, had a six-point loss in IQ. Those who had been admitted to the intensive care unit for COVID-19 had a nine-point loss in IQ. Reinfection with the virus contributed an additional two-point loss in IQ, as compared with no reinfection. Generally the average IQ is about 100. An IQ above 130 indicates a highly gifted individual, while an IQ below 70 generally indicates a level of intellectual disability that may require significant societal support.

Did COVID-19 prediction formulas miss something? New study suggests yes -- A new study published by an interdisciplinary team of researchers, including several from the University of Florida, suggests prediction models used by decision makers in attempting to control the spread of COVID-19 were incomplete. "Metapopulations, the Inflationary Effect, and Consequences for Public Health" published in The American Naturalist, sheds light on how the concept of metapopulations can influence the dynamics of everything from ecosystems to infectious disease spread. Variability among communities connected by movement, the researchers suggest, were not studied closely enough during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic and therefore prediction models led to biased results. Given all the factors influencing the spread of the virus, the variability the researchers studied exacerbated the rate of spread. While the COVID-19 pandemic spread though cities and communities at varying rates, responses were just as varied. For example, despite a relatively low overall infection rate by October 2020, New York State experienced spikes in hospitalizations in the Southern Tier, Hudson Valley and New York City. Then Governor Andrew Cuomo described the response to this as "COVID whack-a-mole," as restrictions were localized and control efforts were block-by-block. Such "whack-a-mole" strategies create and maintain variability in space and time that, in principle, allow COVID to spread faster than if the responses were uniform in space. As people traveled, these restrictions were likely less effective in limiting the virus' spread. Metapopulations—groups of geographically separated populations linked by movement of individuals from one population to another—are commonly used to compare and predict trends when discussing evolution, ecology, and biology. But when it comes to their use in how disease spreads, the study authors explain, variability through time and across space within a metapopulation can have adverse effects on the outcome. Climate, social activity, and the fluctuating rate of travel within and between metapopulations can affect their sustainability, and the magnitude of epidemics. "Because of the complexities in ecological systems, you can have surprises emerge. You can have a system of populations that fluctuates in time, and in a different way, in space," said Holt. Incorporating these complexities can be difficult, but general lessons can emerge. "Even if every population has on average a negative local growth rate, suggesting extinction, because of the interplay of movement and variation, the whole metapopulation can persist." , "The people who built the prediction models and gave that information to decision makers, particularly in a pandemic situation, did not take into account the complexity that movement between local populations brings to the calculation." The research explains the effect that local events such as disasters or disease outbreaks have on a metapopulation's survival. However, when measured across multiple local populations, the effects of the local event may be lessened when spread across the larger metapopulation. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, differing policy responses across regions, such as lockdowns, travel restrictions, and varying public health measures, ultimately influenced how the virus spread. Rather than preventing disease transmission across regions, some of these policies could have inadvertently enhanced it. As people moved from high-infection areas to low-infection areas, they carried the virus with them, leading to a more patchy and dispersed spread of infection. According to researchers, this unintended effect could have been anticipated by a better understanding of metapopulations. "This paper is an attempt to point out the way that people were thinking about things in terms of how pandemics spread," Glass said. "They didn't recognize the qualitative difference that metapopulations put on the models that they had been using all along."

Nearly 30% of cats, dogs owned by COVID patients had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies by 2021 -Nearly 30% of cats and dogs belonging to COVID-infected patients in central Texas tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, signaling previous infection, from 2020 to 2021, according to a study published yesterday on the preprint server bioRxiv.A team led by researchers from the Universidade Federal de Vicosa in Brazil and Texas A&M University sampled 579 pets from 281 households with at least one COVID-infected person from June 2020 to May 2021. The study has not yet been peer-reviewed."Among all the wild, domestic, and captive animals that can be infected, pets living in households with active human infections… are particularly at-risk because of their prolonged, close proximity and indoor relationships with humans," the authors wrote. "Therefore, it is critical to understand factors associated with higher risk of human-to-pet transmission to protect the health of companion animals." Nineteen of 396 dogs (4.8%) and 21 out of 157 cats (13.4%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). In addition, 95 of 382 dogs (25%) and 52 of 146 cats (36%) had SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies. Twenty-six pets of 10 other species tested negative.

US sees no let-up in rising flu activity --Flu activity in the United States climbed higher last week, putting healthcare visits for respiratory virus symptoms at the very high level, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly update. Test positivity for flu rose to an eye-popping 31.6%, and outpatient visits for flulike illness rose to 7.8%, remaining above the national baseline for the tenth straight week. Flu is very high or high in 45 jurisdictions, and the CDC estimates there have been 24 million infections, 310,000 hospitalizations, and 13,000 deaths from the virus.Flu and other illnesses have led to individual school or even district cancellations in at least 10 states, NBC’s Today show reported.In its weekly respiratory virus snapshot, the CDC said emergency department (ED) visits for flu are at the very high level, with the highest levels in children ages 0 to 4 years old and those ages 5 to 17 years old.Rising hospitalization rates are affecting all age groups. The weekly rate for week 1 and week 5, at 10.2 per 100,000 population, is tied with the 2017-2018 season for the highest weekly peak since the 2010-2011 season. Though all age groups are affected, the highest rates are in seniors, followed by adults ages 50 to 64 years old. Ten more pediatric flu deaths were reported, with eight linked to influenza A. Of seven subtyped influenza A viruses, four were 2009 H1N1 and three were H3N2. So far, the CDC has received reports of 57 pediatric flu deaths.Of samples that tested positive for flu at public health labs last week, 97.4% were influenza A, and of subtyped samples, 53.7% were H3N2 and 46.3% were H3N2.COVID activity remains elevated, but most markers are trending downward, the CDC said. ED visits, highest in older people, are at the low level, and the group predicts that over the next 2 weeks, ED visits will remain at the lower level compared to previous winter seasons.Test positivity for COVID declined last week. Meanwhile, hospitalization rates remain elevated, but much lower than for flu, with the highest levels in seniors. Deaths held steady, making up 1.5% of all deaths last week in the United States. Despite the declining or stable trends for most COVID indicators, wastewater detections remain high, with a sharp rise in the Northeast, which is now seeing the nation’s highest level. For much of the fall and winter, the Midwest had the highest levels.Meanwhile, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity continues to decline across most of the country, with ED levels declining and highest in children and hospitalizations elevated in older people in some parts of the country. The CDC wastewater detections for RSV are at the moderate level.

Meta-analysis estimates 14% global COVID-flu coinfection rate - The global prevalence of COVID-flu coinfection is 14%, with Asia and Europe having the highest rates of influenza A/B coinfection, but with wide variation among studies, estimates ameta-analysis of 38 studies published late last week in BMC Infectious Diseases. For the meta-analysis, researchers in Iran evaluated studies published from December 2019 to July 2024 on coinfections with the two viruses. "Multiple pathogens can cause immune overload, with the body's immune response having an insufficient response to either virus when faced with these co-infections," the researchers wrote. "In patients coinfected with both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus, this phenomenon can worsen respiratory symptoms such as pneumonia, sinus infection, bronchitis, and cardiovascular disease and increase the risk for severe respiratory failure." Viruses can also worsen the effects of other viruses, complicating clinical interpretation and leading to more hospitalizations and higher death rates, they said. And because both COVID-19 and flu have similar symptoms, and diagnostic assays may not be able to distinguish between them, diagnosis and treatment can be challenging. The estimated rate of COVID-flu coinfections was 14% (95% confidence interval [CI], 8% to 20%). Significant heterogeneity was seen in the random-effects model for influenza A (11%; 95% CI, 5% to 18%) and B (4%; 95% CI, 2% to 7%) in co-infected patients, which could limit generalizability of the findings. The highest rates of influenza A/B (21%), influenza A (17%), and influenza B (20%) were observed in Asia and Europe. The co-prevalence of COVID-19 and influenza A/B was similar in the pre- and post-2021 periods (14% [95% CI, 5% to 23%] for pre-2021 and 6% to 22% for 2021 and after), a subgroup analysis by year showed.The overall prevalence of influenza A and B in COVID-19 patients was 11% and 4%, respectively, with no significant difference between the periods before and after 2021, but heterogeneity was very high in both time periods (99.83% and 99.97%, respectively), indicating wide differences among studies. "The analysis shows significant heterogeneity between studies, as indicated by an I² statistic of 99.97%," the researchers wrote. "This value indicates that almost all the observed variability is due to differences between studies and cannot be attributed to random chance. This high heterogeneity is likely due to a variety of reasons, including methodological differences, geographic variation, temporal variation in study periods, and differences in diagnostic criteria." "The combination of SARS-CoV-2 with influenza and other respiratory viruses requires the best treatment protocols to reduce the severity of the disease," the study authors concluded. "In this approach, high vaccination coverage against seasonal influenza and SARS-CoV-2 could reduce the risk of co-infection in the recent pandemic."

Studies show how RSV, flu compare, interact in a season - Two new studies, one based on households in southeast Michigan and one involving hospitalized Japanese adults, compare respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to seasonal flu and describe co-infection dynamics between the common and transmissible respiratory viruses and how they differ in disease severity. In the first study, published in Nature Communications,researchers enrolled 4,029 participants from 957 households in a prospective household cohort study to establish how viral coinfection and cocirculation may affect transmission of both symptomatic influenza and RSV infections.The Household Influenza Vaccine Evaluation (HIVE) study was conducted from 2010 to 2020. Altogether, 546 household clusters involved influenza A virus (IAV), with 786 total cases, 231 clusters involved influenza B virus (IBV), with 301 total cases, and 370 clusters involved RSV, with 493 total cases. There were 201 coinfections involving influenza A virus, 67 involving influenza B virus, and 181 involving RSV.Of all secondary cases, 27.0% involved influenza A, 19.6%, influenza B, and 21.9% RSV.The authors said the proportion of coinfected cases was significantly different across viruses."For RSV, 39.0% of index cases and 28.7% of secondary cases were coinfected, compared to IAV (27.5% of index, 20.3% of secondary) and IBV (23.1% of index, 18.6% of secondary," the authors wrote. "The two most identified coinfecting and cocirculating viruses were rhinovirus/enterovirus (RV/EV) and human coronaviruses (HCoV)."For all patients infected with IAV, IBV, or RSV, more than 60% of index cases and secondary cases had received the seasonal flu vaccine.Having a school-age child (under the age of 18) as an index case-patient was associated with a greater risk of transmission for IAV (incidence rate ratio, 2.13; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.46 to 3.10), but not for IBV or RSV.If an index patient was coinfected, there was a reduced transmission of IAV and RSV, the authors said.In the Japanese study, published in Infectious Diseases, authors looked at outcomes among hospitalized adult RSV patients. To do so, they compared health outcomes among 56,980 adult patients hospitalized for RSV or influenza infection from April 2010 to March 2022."While RSV is a well-recognized pathogen in children under 5 years of age, its burden in adults, especially older adults, has been increasingly recognized in recent years," the authors wrote.While in-hospital mortality was not significantly different between the two patient groups (7.5% for RSV and 6.6% for flu), RSV patients showed more severe outcomes, especially for patients 60 years and older.While hospitalized, RSV patients were prescribed significantly more antibiotics and antifungals—which are ineffective against viruses—as well as both inhaled and systemic steroids. The RSV group also had an increased risk of mechanical ventilation use than the influenza group, 9.7% compared to 7.0%, (risk ratio [RR], 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08 to 1.67).The RSV group had a significantly increased risk of readmission due to any cause within 1 year after surviving discharge than did the flu group 34.0% versus 28.9%, (RR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.32).Our study found that the threat of RSV infection in adults was at least comparable to or greater than the health threat of influenza.Finally, median hospital stay was longer in the RSV group than in flu patients (12 days vs. 10 days).

Study examines impact of race, rurality on healthcare-associated infections - A cohort study of hospitalized patients found that race and rurality have an impact on healthcare-associated infection (HAI) risk and outcomes, researchers reported yesterday in JAMA Network Open. The study, conducted at three US urban and suburban hospitals, found that Black urban patients have a lower risk of HAIs than do White urban patients. But Black rural patients with HAIs have a significantly higher risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital death than White urban patients, even after accounting for potential confounders. The authors of the study say the findings likely reflect the "greater burden of structural and systemic barriers to health faced by Black individuals" and highlight the importance of considering how the intersection of race and rurality affects health outcomes. "Although race and rurality are not biological constructs, they are important proxies for structural disadvantage, reflecting undermeasured or unmeasured social risk," they wrote. "As such, they could serve as important markers for individuals who should receive additional clinical attention to reduce adverse events." For the study, a team of researchers from Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis examined data on patients hospitalized for 48 hours or more at one urban and two suburban hospitals from January 1, 2017, through August 31, 2020. They classified patients on the basis of the combination of two social determinants of health (SDOH): Patient race (Black or White) and rurality of the patient's home (based on Zip code). As defined by the authors, SDOH are nonbiological factors affecting health that are outside of a person's control. They chose race and rurality to serve as proxies for structural racism and disinvestment in rural communities, two factors that have contributed to differential healthcare access and quality and have led to pervasive inequities in health outcomes. Black populations, for example, experience higher rates of cardiovascular disease, stroke, and certain cancers than Whites, while people in rural areas are more likely to die from heart disease, stroke, and chronic lower respiratory disease than their urban counterparts. Specifically, the researchers wanted to see how these two factors interconnect and affect risks and outcomes for HAIs—a topic on which little data have been published. Of the 214,955 patients (median age, 63 years; 50.6% female) included in the study, 71,391 (33.2%) were Black urban, 108,273 (50.4%) were White urban, 1,099 (0.5%) were Black rural, and 34,192 (15.9%) were White rural. White urban patients were the reference group. Recognized HAIs occurred during 6,699 admissions (3.1%) and included 1,572 bloodstream infections, 2,479 respiratory infections, and 3,146 urinary tract infections. Compared with White urban patients, Black urban patients had a decreased risk of HAI (adjusted relative risk [aRR], 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.87), White rural patients had an increased risk (aRR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.20), and Black rural patients had a similar risk (aRR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.81 to 1.44) after accounting for potential confounders (including age, sex, comorbidities, body mass index, and measures of poverty). The results were consistent across all types of HAI. But among the 653 HAI patients who were admitted to the ICU, Black rural patients had a nearly twofold increased risk of ICU admission (aRR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.16 to 3.17) compared with White urban patients, while White rural patients (aRR; 1.12; 95% CI, 0.94 to 1.34) and Black urban patients (aRR; 0.96; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.17) had comparable risks to White urban patients. Similarly, among the 1,170 HAI patients who died, Black rural patients had a much higher risk of in-hospital death (aRR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.26 to 2.50) than White urban patients, while White rural patients (aRR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.89 to 1.18) and Black urban patients (aRR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.86 to 1.15) had similar risks. "Collectively, these findings suggest that SDOH may contribute to patient outcomes through structural mechanisms linked to racism, rural disinvestment, and care delivery," the authors wrote.

Texas confirms measles outbreak as Georgia reports more cases - The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) this week reported a measles outbreak involving school children in Gaines County, which is located southwest of Lubbock. In a statement yesterday, the DSHS said six cases have been reported in people whose symptoms began over the past 2 weeks. All are unvaccinated residents of Gaines County."Due to the highly contagious nature of this disease, additional cases are likely to occur in Gaines County and the surrounding communities," the DSHS said, adding that it is working with the South Plains Public Health District and Lubbock Public Health to investigate the outbreak.Separately, the Lynn County Healthcare System, located south of Lubbock, reported a measles case and urged parents to watch children for symptoms and to ensure that they are up to date with measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccination, according to a media report.In January, health officials in the Houston area reported two measles cases, which marked the state's first since 2023. Elsewhere, the Georgia Department of Public Health today reported two more measles cases in unvaccinated Atlanta residents. In a statement, the group said the patients are family members of a case confirmed in January. In a monthly measles update today, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it has received reports of 14 cases this year from five jurisdictions: Alaska, Georgia, New York City, Rhode Island, and Texas. Nine of the cases were part of two outbreaks. All patients were unvaccinated or had an unknown vaccination status. Six were hospitalized for isolation or treatment of complications.

FDA: Imported pastries linked to Salmonella outbreak -- Ready-to-eat mini pastries imported from Canada are tied to a new Salmonella Enteritidis outbreak in the United States, according to a notice from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). So far 8 illnesses in seven states have been reported. The Sweet Cream brand mini pastries are manufactured in Italy and exported into the United States by PCD (Piu Che Dolci) Imports of Laval, Quebec, which issued a recall in January. The pastries were distributed in Florida, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania and also served at catered events.Of the 18 people sickened in this outbreak, 1 person has been hospitalized and no deaths have been reported. Of the 5 people interviewed by investigators, 3 reported eating pastries before getting sick, the FDA said. The last illness-onset date is December 6, 2024.The pastries were served and sold to food service locations, including hotel cafes, bakeries, institutions, and restaurants, according to the FDA, with best-by dates ranging from June 17, 2025, to November 15, 2025.

Bad in small doses—how misuse of antibiotics contributes to bacterial drug resistance - Evidence has emerged about the way bacteria become resistant to multiple drugs. The findings by a John Innes Centre research team add to our understanding of antimicrobial resistance, one of the top threats to global public health. Their work was published in the journal Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy. Researchers in the group of Professor Tony Maxwell investigated earlier research which indicated that exposure to low doses of quinolone antibiotics could lead to bacteria developing resistance to other unrelated antibiotics. Quinolones are widely used antibiotics that work by targeting the enzyme DNA gyrase which is essential to bacterial survival. The team wanted to find out if the reported phenomenon of Quinolone-induced antibiotic resistance (QIAR) was true and if so which of the current types of quinolones might be involved. In experiments, they used E. coli bacteria exposed to non-lethal concentrations of four types of Quinolones (ciprofloxacin, moxifloxacin, oxolinic acid and norfloxacin). Then the bacterial colonies were challenged with non-quinolone antibiotics and the survival rates were monitored. The results showed all the tested quinolones can exhibit QIAR except moxifloxacin. Whole genome sequencing of the bacteria showed that the resistance could be attributed to a range of mutations in the bacterial DNA—induced by the quinolone treatment. The results suggest that moxifloxacin may kill E. coli by a different mechanism to other quinolones, and also show the physiological mechanisms that lead to multidrug resistance in bacteria, which have implications for the use of antibiotics in medicine and farming. "Our findings demonstrate that it is particularly important to avoid exposure to low doses of quinolones—doses below those that would normally kill bacteria. "This might occur when quinolones are misused or overused in human medicine or in non-medical use such as in agriculture or pharmaceutical industry contamination of the environment." Antimicrobial resistance occurs when medicines such as antibiotics, antiviral and antifungals are no longer effective against pathogens. It is a natural process that happens due to natural changes in pathogens, but it has been accelerated due to the overuse and misuse of antimicrobials. It is estimated that if steps are not taken to address this threat, by 2050 antimicrobial resistance will cause 10 million deaths per year and cost the world economy 10 trillion USD in economic output.

Cancer diagnoses and deaths are declining in Appalachia but remain significantly higher compared to other US regions -- Fewer people than before are being diagnosed with and dying from cancer in Appalachia, but cancer incidence and death rates remain substantially higher, especially in certain areas of Central Appalachia, compared to elsewhere in the U.S.The findings, published in the Journal of the American College of Surgeons, reflect the most up-to-date cancer data from the Appalachian region and include in-depth analyses within Appalachia by county.The Appalachian region, which consists of 423 counties spanning 13 states along the eastern seaboard from Mississippi to southern New York, includes a population of more than 26 million. Abundant in rich folk culture and natural scenery, the region unfortunately also has faced considerable disparities in cancer rates in recent decades. But past research has not focused on granular data at the county level, the authors said."The Appalachian region is so large, so to view it as monolithic I think is shortsighted," "The experiences of people living in different regions of Appalachia, particularly in the coal mining areas of eastern Kentucky or West Virginia, are vastly different than it is for individuals in other places. With this research, we sought to understand those unique regional differences to learn how we can better improve cancer screening and treatment strategies." Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Cancer Statistics Incidence Analytics Database, and the National Center for Health Statistics, the authors examined cancer incidence and death rates from 2017 to 2021 and overall cancer trends between 2004 and 2021. Some of their main findings were:

• Greater risk of cancer: From 2017 to 2021, people living in the Appalachian region were 5.6% more likely to be diagnosed with cancer and 12.8% more likely to die from cancer compared to those living outside the Appalachian region.
• Higher death rates from cancers that are routinely screened: Although the region has improved in screening rates, more people still die of cancers that can be caught early with routine screening (breast, colorectal, cervical, and lung) in Appalachia compared to other U.S. regions outside of Appalachia.
• Variations between Appalachian subregions: Within Appalachia, the Central subregion—predominately eastern Kentucky with parts of Virginia, Tennessee, and West Virginia—had the highest rates of cancer incidence and deaths, highlighting the need to increase outreach and research in these areas to better understand and reduce these disparities, researchers said.
• Concerning upticks in liver and late-stage cervical cancers: Between 2004 and 2021, the number of people diagnosed with liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancers dramatically increased in Appalachia—by about 3.77% per year, which is almost twice as fast as outside of the Appalachian region. These cancers are associated with chronic hepatitis C, a liver disease associated with intravenous drug use. Rates of late-stage cervical cancer incidence, which is most often caused by the human papillomavirus (HPV) and is largely preventable with routine screening and vaccination, also increased by 0.51% per year in the Appalachian region while remaining static in other parts of the U.S.
• Some progress, but not enough: Overall rates of cancer incidence (-0.33%) and deaths (-1.39%) are decreasing in Appalachia, but they aren't declining as fast as areas outside of Appalachia. In regions outside of Appalachia, cancer incidence rates decreased by 0.55% from 2004 to 2021 and death rates decreased by 1.67% from 2004 to 2020.

Reasons for these disparities are complex, stemming from limited access to care in rural regions, historical occupational risks from coal mining and other hazardous industries, and higher poverty rates, the authors noted. Other factors, such as higher prevalence of obesity, smoking, and lower HPV vaccination rates, also likely contribute to the widening disparities. Although the disparities are concerning, great strides can be made to close these gaps and improve care, they added. Dr. Evers cited recent public health initiatives that helped boost lung cancer screeningrates in Kentucky above the national average for at-risk patients. Lung cancer death rates in Appalachia are down by 2.5%, and late-stage lung cancer rates are down by about 2.2%, with the largest period of decline associated with the advent of lung cancer screening recommendations from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, according to the paper. These positive trends demonstrate the influence that public health campaigns and targeted interventions can have on at-risk populations, Dr. Evers added.

Air pollution drives lung cancer surge in non-smokers, study reveals -- Air pollution is fueling a rise in the commonest form of lung cancer among non-smokers, hitting women and people in southeast Asia particularly hard, according to a study published on Tuesday. Lung cancer is the commonest form of the disease, with 2.5 million people diagnosed in 2022, said the study, published in the Lancet Respiratory Medicine journal on World Cancer Day. Most of them were men but there was a growing share of nearly a million cases among women. One key subtype of lung cancer—adenocarcinoma—has become predominant among women in 185 countries, the authors wrote in the Chinese-funded study. "Air pollution can be considered an important factor that partly explains the emerging predominance of adenocarcinoma that accounts for 53-70 percent of cases of lung cancer among people who have never smoked worldwide," the study said. They found it grew among both men and women from 2020 to 2022, with the highest level among women, where it accounted for around six in 10 cases. "As smoking prevalence continues to decline in many countries worldwide, the proportion of lung cancer in people who have never smoked has increased," the researchers added. "Lung cancer in people who have never smoked is estimated to be the fifth leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide, occurring almost exclusively as adenocarcinoma and most commonly in women and Asian populations." The study presented statistical research based on data from monitors including the World Health Organization. The researchers said the highest levels of adenocarcinoma linked to air pollution were detected in east Asia, particularly China. "Exposure to household burning of solid fuels for heating and cooking could be a causal factor of lung cancer" among Chinese women non-smokers, they added.

Air pollution clouds the mind and makes everyday tasks challenging, researchers discover -- People's ability to interpret emotions or focus on performing a task is reduced by short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution, potentially making everyday activities, such as the weekly supermarket shop, more challenging, a new study reveals. Scientists discovered that even brief exposure to high concentrations of PM may impair a person's ability to focus on tasks, avoid distractions, and behave in a socially acceptable manner.Researchers exposed study participants to either high levels of air pollution—using candle smoke—or clean air, testing cognitive abilities before and four hours after exposure. The tests measured working memory, selective attention, emotion recognition, psychomotor speed, and sustained attention.Publishing their findings on 6 Feb in Nature Communications, researchers from the Universities of Birmingham and Manchester reveal that selective attention and emotion recognition were negatively affected by air pollution—regardless of whether subjects breathed normally or only through their mouths.The experts suggest that inflammation caused by pollution may be responsible for these deficits, noting that while selective attention and emotion recognition were affected, working memory was not. This indicates that some brain functions are more resilient to short-term pollution exposure. "Our study provides compelling evidence that even short-term exposure to particulate matter can have immediate negative effects on brain functions essential for daily activities, such as doing the weekly supermarket shop.", "Poor air quality undermines intellectual development and worker productivity, with significant societal and economic implications in a high-tech world reliant on cognitive excellence."Reduced productivity impacts economic growth, further highlighting the urgent need for stricter air quality regulations and public health measures to combat the harmful effects of pollution on brain health, particularly in highly polluted urban areas."

Big Pharma Is Pushing Potentially Deadly Alzheimer’s Drugs - Jacobin - Six years ago, Genevieve Lane was enjoying an active life in Florida when she began to forget her neighbors’ names and where she put her keys. At seventy-six, she might have shrugged off these lapses as mere signs of aging, but when she began to have moments of confusion and occasionally got lost while out walking, her housemate and longtime friend Vicki Holmes told her about a nearby research center. There a doctor diagnosed her with early Alzheimer’s disease and told her about a study testing a promising new drug. Lane enrolled, telling her daughter she wanted to have more time. Soon after she started receiving the twice-monthly infusions, she and Holmes believed her memory was improving. “In the beginning, we really thought it was working,” said Holmes. But Lane was not on the drug; she was getting the placebo, infusions of saline. When the trial concluded after eighteen months, she began receiving the real drug, brand-named Leqembi, as part of the study’s extension phase. Six weeks later, Lane was dead. Lane’s family asked for an autopsy. “I thought the drug killed her,” Yvonne Battaglia, her daughter, told us. “I didn’t trust the drug or the drug company.” But the research firm hired by the drugmaker and the hospital where she died both said they could not conduct an autopsy. So Battaglia and her family hired an independent neuropathologist themselves. The pathologist found Lane’s brain littered with ruptured blood vessels, widespread inflammation, and areas of dead cells. A second autopsy, performed at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, where the family donated her brain, confirmed the cause of death: severe cerebral inflammation, likely due to Leqembi. She was not the only patient harmed while taking the drug. Although the company that makes Leqembi reported no drug-related deaths during its eighteen-month study, four deaths tied to the drug occurred later during the study’s extension phase, which involved 714 patients taking the drug. And death was not the only catastrophic outcome. During the main trial, at least two patients who started out with only mild memory problems were left disabled after being put on the drug, incapable of caring for themselves or recognizing their families. Twenty-two percent of patients taking Leqembi developed brain hemorrhage or swelling — more than double the 10 percent of those on the placebo. A second autopsy, performed at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, where the family donated her brain, confirmed the cause of death: severe cerebral inflammation, likely due to Leqembi. Nonetheless, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which regulates medical products, approved the drug in 2023. Leqembi is one of three Alzheimer’s drugs in the same class, all introduced with a strange mix of skepticism and fanfare over the last four years. Leqembi’s predecessor, Aduhelm, launched in 2021, is already off the market after allegations of a secret deal between drugmakers and regulators (the manufacturers cited business reasons for withdrawing the drug). The third drug in the class, Kisunla, was approved in July 2024. In the studies of Kisunla, patients experienced drug-associated brain injuries at a higher rate than with Leqembi. Yet both drugs are being hailed by some physicians, pharmaceutical executives, and journalists as “breakthrough” medications, the first drugs that could “change the course of” Alzheimer’s disease. But are they really breakthroughs?The makers of Leqembi and Kisunla contend that their studies of their drugs, and the FDA’s subsequent approval of them, confirm that the potential benefits of the treatments outweigh their risks.But this investigation has uncovered evidence that both the drugmakers and the FDA have downplayed the possible harms while exaggerating potential benefits. The Lever uncovered data related to Kisunla’s approval: When the drug first came up for review, the agency turned down its approval, noting an “imbalance in deaths” as well as missing data because the company had lost track of nearly a quarter of the patients involved in a key study. The FDA told the company it would have to find out whether they were dead or alive. The Lever also found that three of the four FDA physician advisers who voted in favor of Leqembi had financial ties to the manufacturers or other drugmakers. What’s more, data from the clinical trials show the drugs’ effects on cognition and function may be smaller than what patients and their caregivers are typically able to perceive. When the poor results from the studies began to emerge, a panel convened by an influential patient organization tied to the drugmakers suggested a lower benchmark to measure the drugs’ effectiveness.

Scientists find more microplastics in human brains than in kidneys and livers—and levels are rising o Tiny plastic particles may accumulate at higher levels in the human brain than in the kidney and liver, with greater concentrations detected in postmortem samples from 2024 than in those from 2016, suggests a paper published in Nature Medicine. Although the potential implications for human health remain unclear, these findings may highlight a consequence of rising global concentrations of environmental plastics. The amount of environmental plastic nano- and microparticles, which range in size from as small as 1 nanometer (one billionth of a meter) up to 500 micrometers (one millionth of a meter) in diameter, has increased exponentially over the past 50 years. However, whether they are harmful or toxic to humans is unclear. Most previous studies used visual microscopic spectroscopy methods to identify particulates in human tissues, but this is often limited to particulates larger than 5 micrometers. Researcher Matthew Campen and colleagues used novel methods to analyze the distribution of micro- and nanoparticles in samples of liver, kidney, and brain tissues from human bodies that underwent autopsy in 2016 and 2024. A total of 52 brain specimens (28 in 2016 and 24 in 2024) were analyzed. The team detected these particles in all of the samples and found similar concentrations in the samples of liver and kidney tissues obtained in 2016. However, brain samples taken from that time, all derived from the frontal cortex region, contained substantially higher concentrations of plastic particles than the liver and kidney tissues. The authors also found that liver and brain samples from 2024 had significantly higher concentrations of plastic micro- and nanoparticles than those from 2016. They compared these findings with those of brain tissue samples from earlier time frames (1997–2013) and noted that there were higher concentrations of plastic particles in the more recent tissue samples. Campen and colleagues also found a higher concentration of micro- and nanoplastic particles in brains from 12 individuals with a documented dementia diagnosis than in those without. The authors note that the findings identify an association but do not establish a causal link between plastic particles and health effects. Likewise, they suggest that some variation in the brain samples could be due to geographic differences, as samples were retrieved from New Mexico and locations on the US east coast. More longer-term studies with larger, more-diverse populations are needed to determine micro- and nanoparticle accumulation trends and their potential health implications.

Testing in rural Warren County at PFAS hot spot | NJ Spotlight News Dozens of households in Washington Township, Warren County, are now being supplied with bottled water and hundreds of others are being asked to have their wells tested for possible contamination, part of an emergency federal response to widespread pollution in private wells. Authorities are still trying to get a handle on the scope of the problem, acknowledging that the groundwater pollution may be spread beyond where they are currently looking. This pollution may be impacting the nearby Musconetcong River and may even have made its way into crops and livestock raised on the affected land. The Environmental Protection Agency is warning that groundwater in the area has been tainted by per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances — better known as PFAS or “forever chemicals.” PFAS are a family of thousands of chemicals that have been widely used for all sorts of products and purposes since World War II. The chemicals are useful because they are long-lasting, resist corrosion and easily repel water, among other traits. But a growing body of science links PFAS exposure to serious health problems, including cancers and birth defects. The chemicals generally do not degrade in the environment, so pollution at a site can linger and spread for decades. The contamination in Washington Township dates to the 1950s, authorities say, when the Castle Creek Fabrics & Northern Dyeing Corporation operated a textile mill in neighboring Washington Borough. Part of the work at that mill involved using PFAS to make fabrics waterproof or stain-resistant. The mill’s operations generated large amounts of toxic industrial sludge, which contained PFAS and other chemicals. That sludge was supposed to be kept in lagoons on-site, but eventually the lagoons filled up. Castle Creek & Northern Dyeing found a farmer with roughly 50 acres in the area of Route 31 and Rymon Road, who would spread the sludge on the fields for the better part of 20 years, from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s. During that time, according to the EPA, between 12,000 and 14,000 gallons of sludge from the mill was spread on Harry Rymon’s farmland daily. When the sludge was dry, it was plowed into the soil. The pollution seeped down through the soil and into groundwater that private residential wells tap into. Today the EPA has identified an area of concern that includes 372 properties, most of which are residential. And the EPA expects the total impacted area will be larger. “We don’t know the size of the affected area,” said Margaret Gregor, one of EPA’s on-scene coordinators for the site. “These are the areas we think might be or could potentially be affected that we want to check first.”The EPA has split the water testing into two phases. Phase 1 focuses on wells in properties closest to the farmland where the sludge was spread. Phase 2 will cover properties generally south of that, all the way to the Musconetcong River. The agency’s goal is to complete both phases of well sampling by this summer.The region’s complicated geology means EPA scientists can’t easily predict how the PFAS pollution may have spread in groundwater. It’s possible that neighboring properties could have very different testing results, simply because of how water is moving through fractured bedrock, limestone caverns and aquifers underground. “We know groundwater is moving toward the south, so that’s why Phase 2 is further south,” said Dave Rosoff, another EPA on-scene coordinator for the site. “We expect lesser concentrations as we move south, but we can’t guarantee that.” The agency is urging everyone living inside the area of concern to sign up for free testing of private wells. If water from a well is found to be above federal standards for the chemicals, the EPA will pay for bottled water to be delivered to the household and will eventually pay to install filter systems at the house.

East Palestine residents allege wrongful deaths from 2023 derailment -- A new lawsuit filed by more than 700 residents of East Palestine, Ohio, makes the first wrongful-death allegations in connection with the 2023 derailment that spilled toxic chemicals in the village. In the lawsuit, 744 current and former East Palestine residents make several allegations against Norfolk Southern, the railroad that operated the train, including civil conspiracy, negligence and nuisance. It also alleges seven people died “as a direct and proximate result of the incident and the negligence, recklessness, and other wrongful acts of the Defendant.” The plaintiffs accuse Norfolk Southern of improperly cleaning up after the accident, also arguing that postcrash health and environmental monitoring was not adequate to catch lingering health problems among the residents. Although the lawsuit does not detail the circumstances of the alleged wrongful deaths, it lists health complaints among plaintiffs and their relatives including migraines, nosebleeds and memory issues. The lawsuit casts the February 2023 crash as part of a pattern of safety failures, noting that in the 10 years before the crash, Norfolk Southern’s crash rate increased nearly 81 percent, including 38 incidents in Ohio in 2021. “Norfolk Southern chose not to properly maintain its rail cars and allowed a train to proceed into the community with a car on fire. The defendants then failed to protect people when the rail car predictably derailed and blew up,” attorney Kristina S. Baehr said in a statement. “Then they didn’t clearly warn families in the affected areas and let Norfolk Southern take the lead on the botched testing and cleanup. That was like allowing a criminal to collect DNA and fingerprints at his own crime scene.” The announcement comes the same day Vice President Vance and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin are set to visit the village ahead of the third anniversary of the crash. Last week, East Palestine and Norfolk Southern reached a $22 million settlement over the crash. The Monday lawsuit is separate from both that settlement and a pending class action suit. No one was directly killed by the crash, but it spilled several cars containing hazardous substances including vinyl chloride, used in plastics production. Local officials conducted a controlled burn, which they said was a precaution against an accidental explosion, but federal transportation officials later testified that this had been unnecessary.

Vulnerable communities face compounded environmental hazards, study shows -- Environmental disasters disrupt lives across entire regions, layering disproportionate burdens faced by communities that already face social and economic hardship. Extreme events like the flooding caused by Hurricane Helene in Tennessee and North Carolina illustrate this phenomenon in real time. A study led by UT Knoxville Professor Paul Armsworth offers a comprehensive analysis of how multi-hazard environmental risks impact US communities. Through a pairing of Social Vulnerability Index data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and hazard-exposure data, the study reveals that over 37 million people—more than 11% of the US population—are at high risk from compounded effects of environmental hazards such as water shortages, air pollution, wildfires, flooding, and impaired water quality. Their findings show how socially vulnerable populations—in particular low-income households and those with limited access to health care—are far more likely to experience compounded risks from multiple severe hazards. These risks add to the immediate threat and hamper their ability to recover from future extreme environmental events. "We can expect extreme events to become more frequent and for more people to be exposed to them," said Armsworth. "This also means we can expect compounded hazards to become more common." Armsworth, an expert in spatial conservation planning and human-nature interactions, is a distinguished service professor in the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and a fellow in the Baker School of Public Policy and Public Affairs. He partnered for this study with researchers at Colorado State University, Fort Collins, and the US Forest Service's Rocky Mountain Research Station. The study, "Multi-hazard risk in socially vulnerable communities across the United States," is published in Environmental Research Letters. "By mapping the intersection of social vulnerability and environmental hazards, this study underscores how these overlapping risks can create a cycle of disadvantage, making it more difficult for already vulnerable communities to adapt and recover," said Armsworth. The scope of their study, focused on the contiguous US, reveals widespread environmental risk accumulation. Work to address these complex issues requires coordinated efforts that go beyond isolated interventions. The study also emphasizes regional differences in environmental and demographic risk factors that amplify the importance of addressing the unique challenges faced by people in different communities. "Solutions still need to be tailored to the particular social vulnerabilities that a community is experiencing," said Armsworth. "Is it a lack of access to services, lower income and economic vulnerability, or something else?" These insights are crucial for policymakers and resource managers working to reduce multi-hazard risks and build resilience in the most vulnerable communities. The data in the study offers a useful tool and reference for field experts who track these issues. "What makes this study so valuable is its identification of exactly which American communities are exposed to which combinations of hazards," said Robert McDonald, lead scientist for nature-based solutions at The Nature Conservancy. "This helps us target our efforts to reduce environmental hazards in the communities that need that help the most."

Meta-analysis finds high rates of non-vaccine, high-risk HPV cervical infections, even in vaccinated women - A meta-analysis of 31 studies suggests high rates of cervical infections with non-vaccine, high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) in women, regardless of vaccination status. For the analysis, published last week in BMC Infectious Diseases, researchers in Brazil included observational studies that assessed the prevalence of cervical infection by HR-HPV type among vaccinated and unvaccinated women and were published up to July 14, 2023.Worldwide, HPV is the most common sexually transmitted infection of the lower genital tract and the main cause of cervical cancer, the authors noted. It is also the fourth most common disease in women globally and the leading cause of death in 42 countries.Three HPV vaccines have been licensed: bivalent (two-strain [2vHPV]), which targets HPV types 16/18 (Cervarix); quadrivalent (four-strain [4vHPV]), which targets types 6/11/16/18 (Gardasil); and nonavalent (nine-strain), which targets types 6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58 (Gardasil-9). Among the 59,035 women included in the analysis, 42% had received at least one dose of HPV vaccine. Of the 31 studies, 64.5% used 4vHPV, 32.3% used 2vHPV, and 3.2% used both. There was a high prevalence of non-vaccine HR-HPV types 31/33/45 (prevalence ratio [PR], 0.60), 31 (PR, 0.47), and 45 (PR, 0.38). While prevalence was high regardless of vaccination status, the rates of types 31/33/45, 47, and 45 were lower in vaccinated women, which the authors said suggests that the vaccines offer some cross-protection against these types.

ECDC warns of rise in carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales infections - The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) issued a warning today about a rising incidence of carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) infections, saying the risk of further spread is high. In a rapid risk assessment, the ECDC said the epidemiologic situation has been deteriorating since 2019. Signs of deterioration include an increase in the incidence of carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae bloodstream infections in 23 European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) nations due to the continued transmission of high-risk lineages of carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae in hospitals. The agency also notes that a hypervirulent strain of K pneumoniae—sequence type (ST)23—has become resistant to carbapenems. In addition, the ECDC said carbapenemase genes have been identified in high-risk lineages of Escherichia colithat pose a risk for spread in the community, as well as in newly emerging Enterobacterales species. CRE infections are resistant to multiple classes of antibiotics, leaving clinicians with few effective treatment options. As a result, CRE bloodstream infections are associated with a high level of attributable mortality. "These findings indicate a high probability of further spread of CRE in the EU/EEA, both in hospital settings and in community, a worrying trend since CRE infections are linked to high mortality," ECDC Chief Scientist Piotr Kramarz said in an ECDC press release. "Immediate action is essential to control this problem and protect patients from infections that are becoming increasingly difficult to treat." The ECDC is urging EU/EEA countries to implement enhanced infection prevention and control efforts in hospitals to interrupt transmission of carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae and other CRE, develop a CRE management plan, strengthen national coordination of control measures between hospitals and regions, bolster genomic surveillance, and apply antimicrobial stewardship to preserve the effectiveness of carbapenems."ECDC calls on all EU/EEA countries and hospitals to intensify their efforts to address this deteriorating epidemiological situation, mitigate the high risk of further CRE spread and, ultimately, protect patients and communities," the agency said.

TB cases linked to high schools in Michigan, California - Health officials in Michigan's Kalamazoo County are investigating an active tuberculosis (TB) case in a local high school student, and San Diego officials are warning of possible TB exposure at a high school last year, according to a press release published late last week. Kalamazoo County Health & Community Services Department (HCS) said it notified Kalamazoo Public Schools of the case and that the patient is isolated from others and currently undergoing treatment. Testing of case contacts will take place this week at the school. "Although tuberculosis can be a serious disease, it is a treatable infection. We are working closely with Kalamazoo Public Schools to ensure the safety and health of all staff and students," said William Nettleton, MD, medical director of Kalamazoo County HCS. Also late last week, San Diego health officials warned of possible tuberculosis exposure at a high school during the 2023-24 academic year. Officials are notifying students, employees, and contractors potentially exposed to tuberculosis at Palomar High School from February 24 to June 5, 2024. In 2023, 243 people were reported with active TB disease in San Diego County, the highest level in 5 years, according to a news report. Active infections had been steadily declining since 2000 but increased starting in 2020, health officials said. An estimated 175,000 people in San Diego County have latent TB infections, of which 5% to 10% may become active in their lifetimes.

UK reports 9th clade 1b mpox case -The UK Health Security Agency (HSA) today reported another clade 1b mpox case, marking the country's ninth since October 2024. In an update, the HSA noted few details, other than that the patient had a history of travel to Uganda, one of the current mpox hot spots in Africa's outbreaks. The United Kingdom has reported four such cases since January 20, all in people who had traveled to Uganda.Officials added that they will no longer report new clade 1b infections on a case-by-case basis and that the HKA will shift to providing updates on Thursdays.Merav Kliner, MBChB, MPH, the HAS's mpox incident director, said on X today, "The risk to the UK population remains low. Close contacts have been identified and offered appropriate advice in order to reduce the chance of further spread." The novel 1b clade, which is different from the clade 2 virus circulating globally, was first identified in the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2024 and has fueled large outbreaks in parts of Africa, with sporadic travel-related cases and a few instances of secondary household spread in countries outside of Africa.

Armed conflict disrupts mpox response in DR Congo -Top officials from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) today detailed challenges mpox responders are facing in a virus hot spot in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC’s) North Kivu province, where intense fighting has flared in and around the capital city of Goma.Elsewhere in Africa, cases are on the rise in Uganda and Zambia, though officials report progress in Burundi, which over the past several months has been one of the main countries affected by the clade 1b virus. At a media telebriefing today, Yap Boum, PhD, MPH, deputy incident manager for Africa CDC’s mpox response, said insecurity in Goma, North Kivu’s provincial capital, has led to disruptions in sample collection and confirmation of cases at the National Institute for Biomedical Research (INRB) lab in Goma. The problems have led to a decline in reporting in North Kivu province, as well as neighboring Tshopo province, which depends on testing at the Goma lab. Mpox patients caught in the crossfire and fearing for their lives escaped from treatment centers, and he said 16 of the 143 patients have been recovered. Boum said insecurity in the conflict region may lead to further shortages in lab supplies. He said the biggest internally displaced person camp, which typically houses 700,000 people, is now nearly empty and a World Food Program warehouse was partly looted.As deaths and injuries rise, discussions are underway to open a humanitarian corridor in the region, he said.In one promising development, World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said yesterday on X that the WHO and local partners were able to partially resume mpox vaccination in Goma. “But the overall response continues to be severely impacted by the violence,” he added. Last week, 2,634 new mpox cases were reported from eight countries, mostly from the DRC, Uganda, and Burundi, Boum said.Africa CDC is seeing upward trends in Zambia and Uganda.Transmission in sexual networks seems to be driving much of the activity Uganda, which he said is a challenge for contact tracing. The area around Kampala, the country’s capital, remains the most affected district.However, on the positive side, he said vaccination targeting vulnerable groups began recently, backed by a supply of 10,000 vaccine doses.In Zambia, case numbers are small but growing, with clade 1b circulating and cases detected in 3 of the country’s 10 provinces.Burundi’s cases have been trending downward, but Boum said a long turnaround in testing, limited isolation capacity, and overcrowded living conditions remain challenging.In September, the Biden Administration had announced new support for Africa’s mpox outbreak, which has affected 21 African countries and involves multiple clades—including the novel 1b clade that has been linked to travel—and limited secondary cases in several countries outside the region over the past several months. The pledge included 1 million vaccine doses and $500 million to assist with the outbreak response. Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, head of Africa CDC's mpox incident management team, said $340 million of the pledge had been dispersed, and he said that there are no vaccine delivery status changes that Africa CDC knows of, though officials are following developments closely. The vaccine donations funnel through GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance. He noted that the United States was one of the main partners early in the outbreak and that USAID was one of the first to invest in the region’s mpox response. US President Donald Trump has ordered sweeping changes in USAID, along with a near-total freeze on foreign aid.

Uganda Ebola Sudan outbreak total rises to 2, with more cases suspected -- One more case has been confirmed in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak, involving the wife of the index patient, the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office said in itsweekly health bulletin on outbreaks and other health emergencies.The woman was tested on February 2 after experiencing symptoms of the disease. Her husband was a 32-year-old nurse who became ill in the middle of January and died from his infection. So far, 234 contacts have been identified, 118 of them related to medical settings. Three of the man's close contacts have developed symptoms and have been isolated for treatment and testing. The WHO said the man's exposure to the virus is still under investigation. While symptomatic, he visited a traditional healer in Mbale district and sought care at three healthcare facilities, which were located in his home district Wakiso, another in Mbale in the eastern part of the country, and another in Uganda's capital city, Kampala, where he died. Uganda has experienced five Ebola Sudan outbreaks, most recently in September 2022. An initial genetic analysis suggests that the latest outbreak isn't linked to the earlier outbreak and may involve a new jump from animals to people. "The source of the outbreak remains unknown, indicating the possibility of undetected transmission chains or a new zoonotic spillover," the WHO said.Confirmation of Ebola Sudan in Uganda poses a high risk of further spread owing to the index patient's movements across multiple districts and healthcare facilities, the WHO said. It added that rapid containment is critical, because of Kampala's dense population and Mbale's location near the border with Kenya. Uganda has experience managing Ebola outbreaks, and yesterday officials launched a ring vaccination trial using prepositioned doses of an experimental vaccine provided by the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative (IAVI), a nonprofit vaccine research organization based in New York City.

Ebola Sudan outbreak in Uganda grows to 7 cases -Today the World Health Organization (WHO) said there are now seven cases of Ebola Sudan in Uganda's capital, Kampala, up from two just a couple days ago. The updated case numbers were presented during a WHO Information Network for Epidemics webinar, according to the infectious disease tracking forumFluTrackers.The index case-patient was a 32-year-old male nurse who developed symptoms on January 19. He died 10 days later, with tests confirming Ebola Sudan. The second patient in the outbreak is the nurse's wife.So far 298 contacts of the couple have been identified, with 7 confirmed cases. The WHO said there are two main clusters in the outbreak: a family cluster and a healthcare facility cluster. There are no further details on the healthcare facility cases, but the index patient visited a traditional healer and three separate health clinics before he died in Kampala.Only the index patient has died, leaving the case-fatality rate (CFR) at 14.3%.Today the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a Health Alert Network (HAN) advisory on the outbreak—its first since the Trump administration issued a pause on the CDC and other federal agencies. "While there are no direct flights from Uganda to the United States, travelers from or passing through affected areas in Uganda can enter the United States on flights connecting from other countries," the HAN said. "CDC is communicating with public health departments, public health and clinical laboratories, and healthcare workers in the United States and educating travelers to raise awareness of this outbreak."According to the CDC, previous Ebola Sudan outbreaks have a CFR of about 50%. Uganda last reported an Ebola outbreak in 2022, which included 164 cases and 55 deaths (34% CFR). Currently there are no suspected cases of this outbreak outside of Uganda.

Guillain-Barre syndrome: India faces outbreak of creeping paralysis - BBC - Last month, a school teacher in the western Indian city of Pune found her six-year-old son upset about homework. "I had erased some words and asked him to write them. I assumed he was angry and that's why he was not holding the pencil properly," she told the Indian Express newspaper.She never imagined his struggle to hold a pencil was the first sign of Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS), a rare disorder where the immune system attacks nerve cells, causing muscle weakness and paralysis.Within days, the boy was in intensive care, unable to move his arms or legs. As his condition worsened, he lost the ability to swallow, speak, and eventually breathe, requiring ventilator support. He is now recovering.The boy is among around 160 reported cases of GBS since early January in Pune, an education and IT hub, ringed by industrial towns and villages. There have been five suspected deaths. Currently, 48 patients are in intensive care, 21 on ventilator, and 38 have been discharged, according to official figures.GBS begins with tingling or numbness in the feet and hands, followed by muscle weakness and difficulty moving joints. Symptoms worsen over two to four weeks, typically starting in the arms and legs. The reported mortality rate varies between three and 13%, depending on severity and quality of health care support.The outbreak in Pune is being traced to a pathogen called campylobacter jejuni, a leading cause of foodborne infections, and the biggest driver of GBS worldwide. The link between the two was discovered in the 1990s in rural China, where the pathogen was common in chickens, and GBS outbreaks occurred every monsoon as children played in water contaminated by chicken or duck droppings. More recently, outbreaks linked to the pathogen have been reported from all over the world. In the first seven months of 2023, Peru reported over 200 suspected cases and at least four deaths of GBS, prompting the government to declare a national health emergency and strengthen public health measures. Two-thirds of the cases were linked to campylobacter. In countries with good hygiene, fewer GBS cases are linked to campylobacter, with respiratory infections being a major contributor, say experts. There have been other triggers as well. In 2015 Brazil reported a cluster of GBS cases linked to the Zika virus. Vaccines can rarely trigger GBS, but one Covid vaccine was reportedly linked to a few hundred GBS cases in the UK in 2021. "Campylobacter is endemic with hundreds of thousands of cases taking place all the time. It is always existing in the environment," Hugh Willison, a professor of neurology at University of Glasgow told me.Yet, it is not easy to develop GBS, scientists say.There's a specific strain of campylobacter, which has a sugar-coated outer layer, and in rare cases, its molecular structure matches the coating of human nerve cells.When the patient's immune system attacks the bacteria, it may end up targeting the nerves as well – a process called molecular mimicry – leading to GBS. However, a small fraction of campylobacter strains have this nerve-like coat."In Pune, a strain of campylobacter with this molecular feature is likely to be circulating, and a surge in infections with this strain consequently leads to a higher number of GBS cases," says Prof Willison.

PAHO warns of rise of yellow fever in the Americas -- Yellow fever infections are on the rise in several Americas countries, with the virus expanding its reach outside the zone where cases are typically reported, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said yesterday in an epidemiologic alert. PAHO is one of the regional offices of the World Health Organization (WHO).The increased cases began at the end of 2024 and continued into the first weeks of 2025, with 61 cases reported in 2024, 30 of them fatal. The number exceeds the total of both 2022 and 2023 for Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. In January, the region reported 17 more cases, 7 of them fatal.PAHO said that, in 2024, cases were mainly reported from the Amazon region of Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Guyana, and Peru. The disease has now started spreading outside the zone, however, especially in Brazil's Sao Paulo state and Colombia's Tolima department. Peru has reported a death from yellow fever, and PAHO warned that other countries could be affected. Officials said most of the 2024 cases occurred in people who weren't vaccinated, and they urged countries to strengthen their vaccination programs and to take steps to inform people who are traveling to high-risk areas.With the change in transmission pattern, PAHO urged countries in areas near affected zones to step up surveillance to quickly detect suspected cases and isolate and treat affected patients.

Unproven Lyme disease treatments regularly offered in US, new data show - Recently in Open Forum Infectious Diseases, researchers from the University of Minnesota reported that many non-traditional clinics for Lyme disease exist in states where the tick-borne disease is endemic, and the treatments offered at such clinics are often unproven and costly and raise safety concerns.For the study, the investigators analyzed treatments offered at standalone clinics in 14 states with high Lyme disease prevalence: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The authors devised a Google-based search for Lyme clinics in each state and identified 117 clinics. Costs for an initial consultation ranged from $87 to $3,250. Less than half (53, or 45%) were staffed by a physician with an MD or DO degree. Roughly 20% had a naturopathic doctor on staff, 36 (31%) had an advanced practice provider, and 21 (18%) were staffed by a chiropractor. Herbs and supplements were the most common treatment offered by the clinics (53 clinics; 45%) followed by non-antibiotic intravenous therapy (26%), unspecified antibiotics (22%), hyperbaric oxygen therapy (15%), and ozone-based therapy (13%). Hyperbaric oxygen therapy was the most expensive treatment ($85 to $6,400), followed by bioresonance therapy ($250 to $2,950) and oligonucleotide therapy ($2,750), the authors said. In addition to high costs, "Some of the therapies we found also expose patients to unnecessary risks," the authors wrote. "For example, non-evidenced-based antibiotic regimens—particularly those that are prolonged or administered intravenously via a central venous catheter—have been associated with life-threatening complications, including fatal cases of catheter-associated bloodstream infections andClostridioides difficile infection." Autohemotherapy, which infuses a patient's blood back in to his or her body, also comes with increased risk of bloodstream infections. It is considered a subset of "ozone-based therapy," according to the study authors.Other less common offerings that come with significant risks are "hyperthermia protocols" and intravenous hydrogen peroxide."Our findings suggest that many clinics in the US provide care for Lyme disease that is unproven, potentially risky, and can lead to high out-of-pocket expenditures for patients," the authors concluded.

H1N2v flu hospitalizes Iowa patient - The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today reported a variant H1N2 (H1N2v) infection today involving an adult in Iowa, the nation's first variant flu case of the 2024-25 season. The patient was sick during the week ending January 18, was hospitalized, and has since recovered, the CDC said in its latest weekly FluView update. Iowa health officials who investigated the case didn't identify any direct or indirect contact with swine or any other illnesses among the patient's contacts. No sign of human-to-human spread is linked to the case.Sporadic variant flu cases occur in the United States, and most cases are tied to exposure to pigs, but human-to-human transmission can occur, though the viruses don't spread easily among people.Last season there were nine variant flu cases, including four involving the H1N2v strain. Three of those cases involved Pennsylvania residents who were exposed to pigs.

Is U.S. prepared for bird flu's spread in humans? One expert has concerns - When it comes to the potential of H5N1 avian flu, otherwise known as bird flu, picking up mutations that might lead to human-to-human spread, that "train has already left the station," warns one infectious disease expert. If and when bird flu—already widespread in cattle, cats and other mammals—gains the ability to transmit between people, the best Americans can hope for is to "control the speed of the train" with vaccines, masks and treatment, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong. He's a professor of medicine at the University of San Francisco. Speaking with HealthDay, Chin-Hong stressed that both rapid surveillance and reporting on any new cases of H5N1 that arise are crucial. So the recent silencing of communications from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) by the Trump administration is worrisome. "It's not that people won't get the information eventually if it's serious, it's the rapidity of information that I'm worried about," Chin-Hong said. He compared the recent CDC gag order to a dysfunctional smoke alarm. "You hope the fire isn't going to come, but if it comes, there will be a delay before you feel it," Chin-Hong said. "Time means lives when we're talking about infectious diseases that really don't know any borders." As the UCSF expert explained, the current strain of bird flu has been circulating through avian species for about 30 years. It has only occasionally infected people—usually those who've had extended close contact with birds, such as poultry farm workers. However, viruses are built to mutate and find new hosts. That's what's been happening with alarming rapidity in recent years, with more cases of mammals—such as seals, cattle, cats, dogs and pigs—coming down with bird flu. Over the past year, especially, there's been an uptick of cases among American people, including the recent death of an already frail patient in Louisiana. In most human cases, H5N1 is thought to have been contracted from close contact with an infected animal. Unfortunately, human-to-human transmission may only require a few new genetic tweaks by the virus, Chin-Hong warned. "I think the length of the road before [we see] a mutation that allows easier entry into our lungs is much shorter than people think," he said. He explained that H5N1 can also interact with "regular" seasonal flu viruses. "We have a lot of influenza going around and influenza is engineered to really swap genes with each other and they can pick up tricks," "And some of those tricks include getting the combination to enter our bodies, which it is not so great at doing right now." In the relatively few U.S. cases of human bird flu so far recorded, symptoms have typically been mild—congestion, pink eye and other transitory effects. But if H5N1 mutated so that it could pass easily between people, "all of this may change," Chin-Hong said. "You might get 'inside' disease, and that includes shortness of breath and you may have other organ involvement," he said. The United States currently has a stockpile of 4.5 million H5N1 vaccines, based on older mutations. "It's a good start and it will be a good way to probably protect frontline workers in the event that we need to," Chin-Hong said, but production of any vaccine would need to be scaled up enormously in a potentially short period of time. Other forms of prevention would be key, too, such as handwashing and widespread use of N95 masks, he said. Key to all of this will be a coordinated effort by key government players, however. Central to that effort is the CDC, which at the present moment seems hamstrung, Chin-Hong said. "The CDC is generally the conductor of the orchestra," when it comes to safeguarding public health, he said. "And right now, different parts of the orchestra are playing their own music. And, you know, I think that's what we suffered from in the early days of COVID, too." The potential appointment of anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Department of Health and Human Services (which oversees both the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration) also has Chin-Hong worried. "I'm concerned about, you know, any barriers at the FDA level," when it comes to areas such as vaccine research and distribution, he said. "I know that humans are resourceful and will come up with the science, but the devil is always in the details, and implementing the science is often even more important than the science itself," Chin-Hong concluded.

US dodged a bird flu pandemic thanks to eggs and dumb luck—with spread of new strain, will Americans get lucky again? -- Influenza is one of the most unpredictable of diseases. Each year, the virus mutates slightly in a process called antigenic drift. The greater the mutation, the less likely that your immune system will recognize and fight back against the disease. Every now and then, the virus changes dramatically in a process called antigenic shift. When this occurs, people become even less immune, and the likelihood of disease spread dramatically increases. Maurice Hilleman, an expert in influenza, knew that it was just a matter of time before theinfluenza virus shifted and caused a pandemic similar to the one in 1918. Exactly when that shift would occur was anyone's guess. In April 1957, Hilleman opened his newspaper and saw an article about "glassy-eyed" patients overwhelming clinics in Hong Kong. The article was just eight sentences long. But Hilleman needed only the four words of the headline to become alarmed: "Hong Kong Battling Influenza." Within a month of learning about Hong Kong's influenza epidemic, Hilleman had requested, obtained and tested a sample of the virus from colleagues in Asia. By May, Hilleman and his colleagues knew that Americans lacked immunity against this new version of the virus. A potential pandemic loomed. In the spring of 1957, the government called for vaccine manufacturers to accelerate production of a new influenza vaccine for all Americans. Traditionally, farmers have often culled roosters and unwanted chickens to keep their costs low. Hilleman, however, asked farmers to not cull their roosters, because vaccine manufacturers would need a huge supply of eggs to produce the vaccine before the virus fully hit the United States. But in early June, the virus was already circulating in the U.S. The good news was that the new virus was not the killer its 1918 predecessor had been. Hoping to create an "alert but not an alarmed public," Surgeon General Leroy Burney and other experts discussed influenza and the need for vaccination in a widely distributedtelevision show. The government also created short public service announcements and worked with local health organizations to encourage vaccination. A 1957 film informing Americans how the U.S. was responding to an influenza outbreak.Vaccination rates were, however, only "moderate"—not because Americans saw vaccination as problematic, but because they did not see influenza as a threat. Nearly 40 years haddulled memories of the 1918 pandemic, while the development of antibiotics had lessened the threat of the deadly pneumonia that can accompany influenza. If death and devastation defined the 1918 pandemic, luck defined the 1957 pandemic. It was luck that Hilleman saw an article about rising rates of influenza in Asia in the popular press. It was luck that Hilleman made an early call to increase production of fertilized eggs. And it was luck that the 1957 virus did not mirror its 1918 relative's ability to kill. Today, few Americans remember the 1957 pandemic—the one that sputtered out before it did real damage. Yet that event left a lasting legacy in how public health experts think about and plan for future outbreaks. Assuming that the U.S. uses the medical and public health advances at its disposal, Americans are now more prepared for an influenza pandemic than our ancestors were in 1918 and in 1957. But the virus's unpredictability makes it impossible to know even today how it will mutate and when a pandemic will emerge.

H5N1 strikes more poultry flocks in 3 states -Federal officials today confirmed more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in poultry in three states, with commercial farms in Missouri especially hard hit.According to the latest updates from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), the virus was confirmed at five farms in Missouri, all of them commercial facilities. Affected premises include a layer farm in Newton County that has nearly 1.15 million birds. Other producers include a turkey farm in Newton County, a broiler breeder farm in McDonald County, and three turkey farms in three different counties.Over the past 30 days, the virus has led to the loss of nearly 4.3 million poultry in Missouri.In other poultry developments, APHIS confirmed the virus on a commercial turkey farm in California's San Joaquin County that has 22,200 birds and in a backyard flock of 8 birds in Oregon's Klamath County. APHIS testing also confirmed H5N1 in one more dairy cow herd, another in California, raising the national total to 957 and California's total to 736.

Nine states report more avian flu in poultry, including more layer farms -More H5N1 avian flu detections have been confirmed in poultry flocks in nine states over the past 2 days, including a massive layer farm in Pennsylvania that has nearly 2 million birds, according to the latest notifications from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS).Layer farms have been hard hit in multiple states, and the latest event in Pennsylvania’s Dauphin County will likely add to ongoing egg supply shortages. The virus also struck another commercial farm in Pennsylvania, a broiler facility in Cumberland County that has 30,000 birds.In Ohio, one of the nations recent hot spots, the virus was confirmed at nine more commercial farms, including six turkey farms, two layer farms, and a layer pullet farm.Other states reporting events at commercial farms include California (turkeys) and Maryland (broilers). APHIS also confirmed the virus at two live bird markets in New York, one in Queens County and the other in Bronx County.Five states have new detections in backyard flocks, including Michigan, Arizona, Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Kansas.Since the outbreaks began in early 2022, the outbreaks have led to the loss of a record 156 million birds across all 50 states and Puerto Rico. Following the APHIS’ announcement yesterday of a second H5N1 genotype, D1.1, detected in dairy cattle, a spokesperson from the Nevada Department of Agriculture told CBS News that an earlier detection in December in Nye County involved the earlier genotype, B3.13. However, the four latest detections in Churchill County involved the D1.1 genotype, which is circulating in wild birds and has been linked to two severe human infections. The spokesperson said two more Churchill herds are in quarantine, pending USDA lab results, and the symptoms in cows infected with D1.1 are similar to those that were sick with the B3.13 genotype. In other developments, the APHIS today confirmed two more detections in dairy herds, both from California, raising the national total to 959 and the state’s total to 738.

USDA confirms spillover of 2nd H5N1 avian flu genotype into dairy cattle - The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today announced a new spillover of H5N1 avian flu to dairy cattle, which involves the D1.1 genotype currently circulating in wild birds and has been implicated in human infections, including the fatal case in a Louisiana resident who had contact with sick backyard birds.Until now, all dairy herd H5N1 detections have involved the B3.13 genotype, thought to be the result of a single spillover from wild birds in late 2023 or early 2024. The genotype has been linked to mild infections in dairy workers, along with some poultry cullers, with conjunctivitis the main symptom."Genotype D1.1 represents the predominant genotype in the North American flyways this past fall and winter and has been identified in wild birds, mammals, and spillovers into domestic poultry," APHIS said in its statement. The new spillover was detected in an investigation that followed confirmation of H5N1 in milk sampling from Nevada dairy cows. A few days ago, APHIS reported four recent H5N1 detections in Nevada dairy herds, the state's first since December.Nevada officials said they were removing large nuisance populations of European starlings to curb the spread of the virus. The non-native species typically migrate through Nevada in the winter and outcompete local birds and pose a risk of spreading diseases to livestock.APHIS said the detection doesn't change its eradication strategy and serves as a testament to its National Milk Testing Strategy, which, as of the middle of January, had enrolled 36 states, covering milk from two thirds of the nation's diary herds. University of Minnesota epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, said, "We shouldn't be surprised about a new spillover to cattle, given the very significant activity in waterfowl across much of the United States."He added that the virus is not going away, contrary to those who thought B3.13 would burn itself out.

Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, reports first CWD cases -- Two male deer have tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, the county's first detections of the fatal neurologic disease, the Pennsylvania Game Commission announced late last week. Luzerne County is located in the northeastern part of the state, 40 miles from the closest CWD identification in a wild deer.One of the two adult bucks was harvested by a hunter, and the other was identified on a deer-breeding farm on December 16. The farm is under quarantine for 5 years, which requires testing of deer who die on the farm and prohibits movement of deer to or from the farm, the commission said. The detections will lead to disease-management-area changes in the spring.CWD, which affects cervids such as deer, elk, and moose, is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions. The disease spreads among cervids through direct contact and environmental contamination. No CWD infections have been reported in people, but the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends against the consumption of infected animals.

More farmed deer test positive for CWD in 3 Louisiana parishes -Three more captive deer in three Louisiana parishes have tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries (LDWF)reported yesterday.Authorities detected the cases in Concordia, St Landry, and Tangipahoa parishes after tracing them back to a CWD-positive deer farm in Jefferson Davis Parishidentified in November. Concordia and Tangipahoa parishes abut Mississippi's southern and western borders, and St Landry Parish is in the south-central part of Louisiana."In addition to the recent detections, deer from the CWD positive pens have been traced to permitted pens in 11 other parishes," LDWF said in a news release. "No other positives have been confirmed at this time." The 11 parishes are located throughout the western half of the state.The department has performed statewide surveillance of wild deer since 2002, with the only CWD case in a free-ranging deer found in Tensas Parish in 2022.LDWF acknowledged that the three recently identified cases have raised concerns about the fatal neurologic disease spreading further into wild deer, but said, "At this time, the disease has not been detected in the wild population in any of the parishes with CWD positive deer pens and associated trace outs."CWD, a disease of cervids such as deer, moose, and elk, is caused by prions, infectious proteins that trigger abnormal folding in normal proteins. Infected animals shed CWD prions in body fluids, which can spread to other cervids through direct contact or the environment. Although CWD is not known to infect people, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization advise against eating infected animals. People who hunt in CWD-positive areas should have their deer tested for the disease before consuming the meat.

Bonobos realize when humans miss information and communicate accordingly -- To get treats, apes eagerly pointed them out to humans who didn't know where they were, a seemingly simple experiment that demonstrated for the first time that apes will communicate unknown information in the name of teamwork. The study also provides the clearest evidence to date that apes can intuit another's ignorance, an ability thought to be uniquely human. The work by researchers with Johns Hopkins University's Social and Cognitive Origins Group was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Krupenye and co-author Luke Townrow, a Johns Hopkins Ph.D. student, worked with three male bonobos, Nyota, 25; Kanzi, 43; and Teco, 13, all living at Ape Initiative, a research and education nonprofit.During the experiment, one of the bonobos would sit with Townrow, facing each other across a table. The bonobo would watch as a second person placed a treat, a grape or a Cheerio, under one of three cups. Sometimes Townrow could see where the treat was going, sometimes he couldn't. The bonobo could have the treat if Townrow could find it.Apes eagerly pointed out the location of treats to humans who didn't know where they were. Whether or not Townrow saw where the treat was hidden, he'd say, "Where's the grape?" and then wait 10 seconds. If he'd seen the treat being hidden, during the 10 seconds the ape would usually sit still and wait for the treat. But when Townrow hadn't seen where the treat was hidden, the ape would quickly point to the right cup—sometimes quite demonstratively."Their fingers would point right through the mesh—it was clear what they were trying to communicate," Krupenye said. "One, Kanzi, who was very food motivated, would point repeatedly in certain phases of the experiment—he'd tap several times to get our attention and was quite insistent about it." The work is the first to replicate in a controlled setting similar findings from the wild that suggest chimpanzees will vocalize to warn groupmates ignorant to potential threats, such as a snake."We predicted that if apes are really tracking ignorance, when their partners lacked knowledge they would be pointing more often and more quickly and that's exactly what they did," Krupenye said."The results also suggest apes can simultaneously hold two conflicting world views in their mind. They know exactly where the food is, and at the same time, they know that their partner's view of the same situation is missing that information."

Dramatic drop in monarch butterfly count nears record 30-year low - The number of monarch butterflies spending the winter in the western United States has dropped to its second-lowest mark in nearly three decades as pesticides, diminishing habitat and climate change take their toll on the beloved pollinator.Monarch butterflies, known for their distinctive orange-and-black wings, are found across North America. Monarchs in the eastern United States spend their winters in Mexico and are counted by the World Wildlife Fund, which has yet to release data for this year. Monarchs west of the Rocky Mountains typically overwinter along the California coast.The Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation has been counting western overwinter populations along the California coast, northern Baja California and inland sites in California and Arizona for the last 28 years. The highest number recorded was 1.2 million in 1997. The organization announced Friday that itcounted just 9,119 monarchs in 2024, a decrease of 96% from 233,394 in 2023. The total was the second-lowest since the survey began in 1997. The record-low was 1,901 monarchs in 2020.The survey noted that a site owned by The Nature Conservancy in Santa Barbara that saw 33,200 monarchs last winter hosted only 198 butterflies this year.Monarchs across the continent face mounting threats, chief among them vanishing milkweed, the host plant for the insect's caterpillars. The plant has been disappearing before a combination of drought, wildfires, agriculture andurban development, according to Monarch Joint Venture, a group that works to protect monarchs. Pesticides have contaminated much of the remaining plants, according to the Xerces Society.It's unclear what caused such a sharp drop-off in the western population in just one year, said Emma Pelton, an endangered species biologist with the Xerces Society. The monarch population is already small, she said, and triple-digit heat in the western states last year may have slowed breeding. Monarchs suffer when the mercury gets up to 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.7 Celsius) and any temperatures above 108 degrees Fahrenheit (42.2 degrees Celsius) are lethal to the insects, Pelton said. The western states saw a heat wave in July that drove temperatures in some areas well past 100 degrees. Palm Springs, for example, hit a record 124 degrees Fahrenheit (51.1 degrees Celsius) on July 5. Another heat wave cooked northern California in early October, with multiple cities breaking heat records. Pelton said that it's too early to tell what long-term impact the dramatic losses might have on the overall western monarch population. Insects do have the potential for exponential growth, Pelton said. After bottoming out at 1,901 butterflies in 2020, the population rebounded to 247,246 insects the following year, an increase of nearly 13,000%. The year after that the survey recorded 335,479 monarchs. "This is bad news," Pelton said of the 2024 population drop. "But we have seen incredible recovery. this doesn't mean we're not going to have western monarchs. It's hopefully a wake-up call that a bad year can set them back pretty significantly."The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service announced in December 2024 that it was working to list monarchs as threatened, a move that would prohibit anyone from killing, transporting them or making changes that would render their property permanently unusable for the species, such as eradicating all milkweed from the land. The listing also would protect 4,395 acres (1,779 hectares) in seven coastal California counties that serve as overwinter sites for western monarchs.A public comment period on the proposal is set to end in March. The agency has until December to officially list the monarch as threatened if officials decide to move forward. Earthjustice, an environmental law firm, petitioned the Environmental Protection Agency in December 2024 to mandate testing pesticide effects on insects such as bees, moths and butterflies.

Court restores protections for critically endangered whales off New England A Massachusetts court on Monday restored federal protections for endangered whales off New England against entanglement in fishing equipment, overruling a lower court that struck down the federal rule. The Massachusetts Lobstermen’s Association challenged the National Marine Fishers Service (NMFS) rule, finalized in 2024, which closed a 200-square-mile stretch of federal water between February and April. The severely endangered right whale, hunted nearly to extinction during the age of whaling, frequents the area during that period. Ship strikes and entanglement in lobstering gear are a major threat to the whales, believed to have a remaining population of fewer than 400. A lower district court sided with the trade group, ruling an earlier 2022 emergency rule was not yet in force when a bill funding the federal government for fiscal 2023 was enacted. However, on Friday, the 1st Circuit Court of Appeals in Boston ruled that the final rule was consistent with that funding bill. “Just like school speed zones are always in place but are only in effect when school is in session, the 2022 emergency rule to seasonally protect right whales in the wedge off Massachusetts was also in place in December 2022,” said Regina Asmutis-Silvia, executive director of Whale and Dolphin Conservation. “That was the intent of Congress when it referenced the emergency rule in the Consolidated Appropriations Act language. We are grateful that the appellate court acknowledged it.” The ruling is rare good news for conservation groups as President Trump’s Interior Department is likely to open large swaths of public lands and waters up for oil and gas development. Newly confirmed Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has signaled he will take such steps at the head of the department, saying at his confirmation hearing that “we live in a time of tremendous abundance.”

Wildfire-linked ED encounters increased eightfold with onset of LA wildfires --The percentage of wildfire-associated emergency department encounters increased with onset of the Los Angeles County (LAC) wildfires in January 2025, according to research published in the Feb. 6 issue of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Emily Kajita, M.P.H., from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, and colleagues reviewed syndromic surveillance data to examine trends in all-cause and wildfire-associated emergency department encounters contemporaneous with the LAC wildfires. If fire or smoke inhalation-related terms were present in chief complaints and diagnoses, encounters were classified as wildfire-associated. Three periods were analyzed: Dec. 17, 2024, to Jan. 6, 2025 (baseline); Jan. 7, 2025, to Jan. 12, 2025 (phase 1: the first six days of the wildfires); and Jan. 13, 2025, to Jan. 19, 2025 (phase 2). The researchers found that from baseline to phase 1, there was a 9 percent decrease in the average number of daily all-cause emergency department encounters (91 percent of baseline encounters), followed by an increase to 95 percent of baseline encounters in phase 2. There was an eightfold increase in the average percentage of emergency department encounters that were wildfire-associated, from 0.06 percent at baseline to 0.52 percent in phase 1, followed by a decrease to 0.20 percent in phase 2. The percentage of wildfire-associated emergency department encounters peaked on Jan. 8, 2025, at 1.01 percent. The increase in average percentage of wildfire-associated emergency department visits increased in alignment with the increase in average daily air quality index from 75 (moderate level of concern) at baseline to 110 (unhealthy for sensitive groups) in phase 1, followed by a decrease to 58 (moderate) in phase 2. "These data demonstrate that the wildfires were associated with a decrease in total emergency department encounters across LAC, and that wildfire-associated emergency department encounters were temporally associated with worsening air quality," the authors write.

California’s largest wildfires contained after weeks of devastation -- Two of the largest wildfires in California that have burned thousands of acres and prompted tens of thousands to evacuate have been fully contained after over three weeks of devastation, officials confirmed late Friday. The Palisades Fire, which broke out on Jan. 7, burned over 23,000 acres and destroyed more than 6,800 structures. The Eaton Fire, which kicked off in Altadena, burned just over 14,000 acres and destroyed over 9,000 structures, according to CalFire.Officials updated the data overnight as both fires reached 100 percent containment. This means firefighters have the blaze’s perimeter under control and the line can be held. The two wildfires, which have ravaged neighborhoods and leveled thousands of homes, have killed a minimum of 29 people — 17 in the Eaton Fire and 12 in the Palisades fire, according to the Los Angeles County Medical Examiner Office. The cause of both deadly blazes is still under investigation.The total damage and economic loss from the California wildfires are projected between $250 and $275 billion, according to AccuWeather. Southern California had some rainfall earlier this week, assisting the firefighters in their containment of the blazes. “It’s more important when we say forward progress is stopped,” Los Angeles Fire Department Spokesperson Margaret Stewart told Reuters. But, Stewart stated that recent rain was “more of a hindrance” since it prompted mudslides and some roads used by responders were blocked. “Had this rain come two weeks ago, it might have been more helpful,” she added. The fires, which destroyed a slew of celebrities’ homes among others, was quickly turned into a political talking point. President Trump and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) found themselves in another feud over the Golden State’s water resources being used to contain the blazes.But, after Trump visited the fire-ravaged city, the two seemingly agreed to work together.

Heavy rains set new records in San Francisco, triggering floods and landslides, California - A pair of atmospheric rivers brought record rainfall, flooding, and landslides to California’s West Coast from Friday, January 31 to Wednesday, February 5, prompting evacuations and rescue operations. Downtown San Francisco recorded 64.3 mm (2.53 inches) of rain on February 4, breaking a 137-year-old daily record set in 1887. San Francisco International Airport (SFO) also set a new daily rainfall record on February 4, recording 39.1 mm (1.54 inches). This exceeded the previous record of 33 mm (1.3 inches), set in 1991. The highest single-day rainfall recorded in downtown San Francisco was 140.7 mm (5.54 inches) on November 5, 1994. At SFO Airport, the highest daily total is 142 mm (5.59 inches), recorded on January 4, 1982. Heavy rainfall caused severe flooding and landslides in the region. In Sonoma County, an unoccupied home collapsed into the Russian River in Forestville while authorities issued multiple evacuation orders for low-lying areas due to flooding and landslide risks. A landslide struck a house in the Santa Rosa shortly after 17:00 local time (LT) on Tuesday, trapping two people who were later rescued by the local fire department. Authorities warned residents of 17 other homes in the region about potential landslides due to ongoing heavy rain. The highest wind speeds were recorded along the coast north of San Francisco, with gusts reaching 145 km/h (90 mph). A wind gust of 111 km/h (69 mph) was recorded at San Francisco International Airport as a severe thunderstorm moved through, toppling trees and downing power lines in the city. The San Francisco Fire Department reported that one person was hospitalized after being struck by a falling tree. A tree fell on a school in Santa Rosa at approximately 11:33 LT on Tuesday. While no injuries were reported, debris from the fallen tree led to the closure of a lane in front of the school. Several flood warnings and evacuation orders were issued across the region as rivers and streams exceeded flood levels. The Russian River in Forestville was forecast to rise to a crest of 11 m (36 feet).

Morgan County reports significant damage and loss of life after destructive storms hit East Tennessee - (video) A violent storm system struck Morgan County, Tennessee, on the evening of Thursday, February 6, with a possible tornado touching down in the Deer Lodge and Sunbright areas around 20:27 LT. The storm caused widespread destruction, resulting in severe property damage, multiple injuries, and loss of life. Local, county, and state first responders, along with emergency personnel from multiple agencies and jurisdictions, are actively engaged in search and rescue operations and assessing individual safety. Morgan County Emergency Management Agency has deployed over 100 personnel to identify and assist those in need, and established an Emergency Operations Center, with additional staging and safety locations, including Wartburg Central High School. At least 30 troopers from the Tennessee Highway Patrol (THP) were also dispatched to the area. Authorities have urged residents to avoid these areas to allow emergency responders to assess and manage the situation. Power, phone, and internet services have been disrupted, with at least 900 homes experiencing outages. Citizens were advised to stay away from any fallen trees, powerlines, and damaged structures until further notice, as first responders are still clearing pathways. “My wife, from Morgan County, is steadily getting updates from her family hit by the tornadoes. She’s already lost her cousin, not sure about her cousin’s daughter, and it sounds like there may be more,” one of the locals reported on X.

Streets turn into raging rivers as heavy rains hit Italy - Severe flooding hit Sicily and Tuscany on February 2 and 3, 2025, turning streets into raging rivers, forcing emergency rescues and overwhelming local services. Severe rainstorms swept across Sicily from the afternoon of Saturday, February 1, through Sunday, February 2, bringing two days of continuous rainfall that caused streams to overflow and turned streets into rivers, triggering widespread flooding in Zafferia, Messina. Mud and debris surged through Zafferia, stranding residents in their homes as floodwaters inundated the streets. The flooding also impacted the local hospital’s emergency department and the city’s sports hall. Ad ends in 8 Falling trees and mudslides were reported throughout the region, causing further disruptions. The fire brigade conducted over 150 interventions across the province, with operations still ongoing. In Messina, the Municipal Operations Center was activated as floodwaters swept away cars. Heavy rainfall also impacted Tuscany, flooding the provinces of Pisa and Lucca as well as the western part of Florence. In Cecina, police had to dive into floodwaters to rescue individuals trapped in their cars in a flooded underpass. A landslide occurred in San Miniato, Pisa Province, burying part of a parking lot and damaging five cars. In Florence, a large pine tree fell on two parked cars in Piazza Savonarola. Severe weather also impacted Catania where an Orange alert was issued for hail and heavy rainfall from Saturday through Sunday.

Major flooding underway in northern Queensland after extreme rainfall, Australia – (2 vidoes) A major flood event is underway in northern Queensland, Australia, on Sunday, February 2, 2025, after parts of the region received between 500 and 1 000 mm (19.7 – 39.4 inches) of rain in the 48 hours leading up to 09:00 LT today. At least one person has drowned in floodwaters after an SES boat capsized. The region is forecast to receive additional heavy rainfall, with some areas expected to see up to 500 mm (19.7 inches) of additional rain over the next 24 hours. A major flooding event is underway in areas like Hinchinbrook Shire (population 11 000) and parts of Townsville (population 198 140) after a low-pressure system brought massive rainfall in a short period, prompting Queensland’s State Emergency Service (SES) to urge residents to gather their evacuation kits and move to higher ground immediately. Multiple areas have now received over 500 mm (19.7 inches) of rain since Saturday morning, adding to significant rainfall since Friday. Rollingstone recorded 999 mm (39.3 inches) in the 48 hours leading up to 09:00 LT on Sunday, February 2. During the same period, Deeragun received 666 mm (26.2 inches), Ingham 662 mm (26.1 inches), Saunders Creek 655 mm (25.8 inches), Townsville 545 mm (21.5 inches), and Ayr 402 mm (15.8 inches). In the 24 hours leading up to 09:00 LT on Sunday, Paluma Dam, north of Townsville, recorded 712 mm (28 inches) of rain. Rollingstone received 639 mm (25.2 inches) during this period while Bluewater recorded 378 mm (14.9 inches). Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) senior forecaster Dean Narramore warned that north Queensland is facing a “flood disaster.” Areas under warning could receive up to 200 mm (7.9 inches) of additional rainfall, with isolated falls of 400 – 500 mm (15.7 – 19.7 inches) possible over the next 24 hours. “Unfortunately, a lot more rain is expected, and major flooding will continue to impact rivers, creeks, and streams, along with flash flooding. Everything is already saturated,” Narramore said. Meteorologists warn there’s a prospect of record rainfall in parts of the region, with Ingham likely to see a repeat of the record-breaking flood of 1967 when Herbert River at InghamPumpStation swelled to 15.2 m (49.9 feet). In Townsville, modeling suggests that approximately 1 700 homes in Cluden, Hermit Park, Idalia, Oonoonba, Railway Estate, and Rosslea may experience floodwaters rising above the floorboards. Authorities conducted door-to-door evacuations, but about 10% of residents reportedly refused to leave. “They may believe they will be safe at home, but they will effectively become isolated, surrounded by floodwaters,” Townsville Local Disaster Management Group chair Andrew Robinson said. One person has drowned after an SES rescue boat overturned on Rutledge Street in Ingham on Sunday, approximately 100 km (62 miles) north of Townsville. “There were six people aboard the vessel. Five were rescued safely, but unfortunately, one person was found deceased,” State Disaster Coordinator Shane Chelepy said. Power outages have been reported in parts of Townsville and Ingham, with the potential for prolonged disruptions.

Ollera Creek Bridge collapse cuts key transport route in Queensland’s worst floods in 60 years, Australia - 2 videos - The Ollera Creek Bridge, a critical section of the Bruce Highway, was destroyed over the weekend, severing a key transport link in Queensland amid the state’s worst flooding in 60 years. The floods have claimed the life of at least one person after a rescue boat capsized and have inundated thousands of homes and numerous roads across the region. Torrential rain and rising floodwaters also washed away a section of the highway, which spans 1 600 km (995 miles) and serves as the region’s main connection for freight, emergency services, and travel. In the town of Ingham, a 63-year-old woman lost her life when a rescue dinghy capsized after colliding with a submerged tree. Despite efforts to save her, she was swept away by the floodwaters, while five others were successfully rescued. The widespread flooding has inundated over 1 700 homes, submerged major roads, and forced mass evacuations across Townsville, Ingham, and Cardwell. Emergency authorities have ordered thousands to evacuate as heavy rainfall continues, with rivers exceeding capacity and communities facing worsening conditions. Since Friday, January 31, some areas in northern Queensland have received over six months’ worth of rain in just three days, with total rainfall exceeding 1 300 mm (51.2 inches) in some locations. Some locations, such as Paluma, recorded over 1 000 mm (23.6 incheS) in just 48 hours In a 24-hour period leading up to Sunday, February 2, more than 600 mm (23.6 inches) of rain fell in parts of the state, overwhelming rivers and drainage systems. The extreme deluge has led to major flooding from the Central Coast to Cairns, with authorities issuing flood warnings for the Herbert, Ingham, Ross, and Bohle Rivers. The sheer volume of rain has triggered flash floods, road closures, and power outages, with mobile networks failing in many regions, leaving thousands cut off from communication. The State Emergency Service (SES) reported receiving over 480 emergency calls overnight and conducting 11 swift water rescues. However, officials warned that the number of people in need could be significantly higher due to communication blackouts in some areas.

Japan sets new national 12-hour snowfall record with 1.29 m (4 feet) in Hokkaido – (2 YouTube videos) A record-breaking 1.29 m (4 feet) of snow fell in Obihiro, Japan, within just 12 hours on February 4, 2025, setting a new national record for 12-hour snowfall and leaving cars stranded in deep snow. Obihiro, in Japan’s eastern Hokkaido, was hit by record-breaking snowfall today, with the Obihiro Meteorological Observatory reporting 1.2 m (3.94 feet) of snow in the 12 hours leading up to 09:00 local time (LT). This marks Japan’s highest 12-hour snowfall on record. By 09:00 LT, the snow depth had reached 1.29 m (4.23 feet) before slightly decreasing to 1.25 m (4.10 feet) by 11:00 LT. This is the first time in 53 years that snow accumulation has exceeded 1.2 m (3.94 feet). Heavy snowfall was also recorded in Kushiro and Sapporo, with authorities receiving dozens of calls from drivers across Hokkaido whose vehicles were stuck in the snow. The Obihiro Police Station reported some 20 cases of vehicles stranded in the snow. Officials have urged residents to avoid non-essential travel due to severe weather conditions. Two powerful low-pressure systems are currently affecting both sides of the Japanese archipelago, bringing in cold air and causing widespread heavy snowfall. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has forecasted up to 100 cm (39.4 inches) of snowfall in northwestern Japan and an additional 50 cm (19.7 inches) in Hokkaido over the next 24 hours, lasting through the evening of February 5. This cold snap is expected to persist for about a week, with a chance of heavy snow in low-lying areas of Kyushu and Shikoku, regions that rarely experience snowfall. The JMA has issued warnings for heavy snow, snowstorms, and high waves, advising people to stay alert for power outages, fallen trees, and avalanches. Authorities have cautioned that snow could bring road traffic to a standstill and cause significant delays and cancellations of public transportation services.

Rare polar vortex split forecast for February 2025 could bring prolonged cold to North America - A significant cold outbreak is forecast for mid-February 2025 as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event splits the polar vortex, with one of its cores expected to move into North America. A significant Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is forecast for mid-February, potentially disrupting the polar vortex, and bringing prolonged cold outbreaks to much of the United States. While North America is expected to experience a cold outbreak, the effects on Europe remain uncertain due to the polar vortex’s less direct influence in the region. The polar vortex is a large, persistent circulation of cold air located in the stratosphere over the Arctic. It is strongest in winter and helps to contain frigid air within the polar region. When the vortex weakens or splits due to stratospheric warming, the disrupted air masses can move southward, impacting mid-latitude weather patterns. Recent model projections indicate a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in early February 2025, potentially leading to a rare split of the polar vortex, according to an analysis by Andrej Flis of Severe Weather Europe. This process involves a rapid rise in stratospheric temperatures, weakening the vortex and sometimes breaking it into two or more smaller circulations known as “daughter vortices.” According to Flis, one of these daughter vortices may shift over North America, increasing the likelihood of Arctic air intrusions into the United States and Canada. While the exact regions affected remain uncertain, past events of this nature have led to prolonged periods of below-average temperatures and winter storms. The polar vortex is currently at or above its typical size and is stronger than usual. This image illustrates the geopotential height and temperature in the mid-stratosphere at the 10 mb level (30 km/18.5 miles). Similar stratospheric warming events have been linked to severe cold outbreaks, such as those in early 2021 and 2018, which brought extended freezing conditions to large portions of North America. However, not all vortex disruptions lead to extreme cold. The degree and timing of tropospheric coupling—the interaction between the stratosphere and lower atmospheric layers—play a key role in determining surface-level impacts. If the expected split occurs and successfully influences the tropospheric jet stream, parts of the Midwest, Northeast, and even the Southern United States could experience increased cold outbreaks in late February and March. Canada, particularly central and eastern regions, may also face prolonged winter conditions.

Widespread freezing rain and dangerous travel forecast from Midwest to Mid-Atlantic, U.S. - A mix of freezing rain and sleet will develop across parts of the Midwest and northern Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday, February 5 through Thursday, February 6, 2025, as Arctic air lingers ahead of an approaching storm system. The greatest ice accumulation risks are expected in western Maryland, the West Virginia Panhandle, and Pennsylvania, where ice buildup may cause power outages and hazardous road conditions. Elsewhere, lighter freezing rain could still lead to travel disruptions across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.An Arctic high-pressure system will push southward across the northern Plains and Midwest through Wednesday, bringing colder air into the Great Lakes and Northeast in the wake of a departing cold front.This cold airmass, though gradually moderating, will be in place ahead of a developing storm system that will track into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday night. The interaction of this system with lingering subfreezing air is expected to produce a mix of precipitation, including snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

• Freezing rain and sleet are expected from Wednesday to Thursday across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic, creating hazardous travel conditions.
• The heaviest ice accumulation (over 6 mm / 0.25 inches) is likely in western Maryland, the West Virginia Panhandle, and parts of Pennsylvania, with risks of power outages and tree damage.
• Dangerous road conditions are anticipated as even minor ice accretion can lead to travel disruptions; drivers are advised to check conditions and exercise caution.

Lethal heat waves will triple in size even if climate agreements kept, study finds - Heat waves that are impossible to survive without air-conditioning could soon afflict far more of the globe than they do now, a new study has found.That change could happen even if climate change is kept within the limits of international agreements, according to findings published on Tuesday in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment.Heat waves have killed more than 260,000 people since 1990, and a large body of research shows that human burning of fossil fuels makes these events more common.The coming rise in temperaturas means an urgent need for hot-weather countries to adapt to prepare for “unsurvivable heat thresholds,” lead author Tom Matthews, who teaches environmental geography at Kings College of London, said in a statement.Those are conditions where “prolonged outdoor exposure – even for those if in the shade, subject to a strong breeze, and well hydrated – would be expected to cause lethal heatstroke” even in the young, Matthews said.Under current levels of warming, such heat events currently afflict about 2 percent of the Earth’s landmass, or about 14 times the size of Texas, the researchers found. For adults over 60, the regions currently at risk for lethal heat waves are ten times higher: 20 percent of the earth’s surface.But if average temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels — or just another .5 degrees Celsius (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming — then the regions affected by lethal heat waves will spread until they have enclosed a total global area about the same size as the United States as a whole, the study found. Those impacts will be worst for parts of densely populated equatorial countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where billions of people could be at risk — even if planetary heating is kept at bay by significant shifts in how the world’s nations use energy and limits on the burning of fossil fuels, according to the study.If those shifts away from burning coal, oil and gas don’t happen, projections suggest that warming could exceed 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit). In that scenario, the study found, 40 percent of the planet’s land area could feel the impacts of heat waves that adults can’t survive.In that scenario, Matthews said, only regions furthest from the equator — or at high elevation — would be unaffected.

Over 9 000 people evacuate Santorini as seismic crisis worsens, UK issues travel advisory, Greece - Over 9 000 residents and tourists evacuated Santorini island by ferry and emergency flights on February 3 and 4, 2025, following a surge in seismic activity that began on January 28. Authorities remain on high alert as the region continues to experience strong earthquakes, including 43 tremors above M4.0 since February 1. Ferry operators Blue Star Paros and Kissamos added emergency routes to Piraeus as families waited to board the ferry. Giorgos Hatzimarkos, the Governor of the South Aegean, estimated that between 5 000 and 6 000 people had left Santorini by February 3, a number that increased to over 9 000 on February 4. The Greek government has been implementing emergency response plans, including “Talos 2” and “Enceladus 2,” which outline precautionary measures but do not include full-scale evacuations. “There is no wave of tourist cancellations,” Hatzimarkos emphasized despite public concerns. YouTube video Tourism authorities continue to monitor the situation to prevent economic repercussions. Airlines and ferry services have increased their schedules to accommodate those wishing to leave. Aegean Airlines operated 9 flights from Santorini to Athens on February 3, transporting 1 294 passengers. On February 4, 8 flights were scheduled, with an additional four emergency flights planned. The National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA) Seismology Laboratory has recorded over 2 500 earthquakes between June 2024 and February 1, 2025, with more than 1 200 occurring in the last three days alone. The seismic activity further increased between February 1 and 4 during which 43 earthquakes exceeding a magnitude of 4.0 were recorded, with the strongest measuring M5.0 on February 3 at 14:17 LT (12:17 UTC) and February 4 at 04:46 (02:46 UTC). The Seismology Laboratory of NKUA has been monitoring seismic activity in the Santorini volcanic complex and the Santorini-Amorgos fault zone. The recent seismic events are the most important from 2011 to 2012, when similar activity was last observed within the Santorini Caldera. Microseismic epicenters have been concentrated around Nea Kameni and the Imerovigli–Fira region, aligned with the Kameni Line fault system in a northeast-southwest direction. Additional activity has been detected near Kolumbo, an underwater volcano situated 8 km (26 247 feet) northeast of Santorini. A rapid increase in earthquakes was recorded east of Kolumbo between January 26 and 29, bringing the total count to over 2 500 by February 1. The swarm has since spread to the islet of Anydros. The seismic events include both tectonic and volcanic origins, with concerns about potential interactions between local fault systems and magmatic movements. Ground deformation studies indicate that horizontal and vertical shifts in the region’s tectonic behavior have been occurring since August 2024. The NKUA Geophysics Laboratory has identified a shift in horizontal motion towards an east-northeast direction, with uplift rates comparable to those recorded from 2011 to 2012. A new GPS survey is being conducted to track spatial ground movement around Nea Kameni and Kolumbo. “As Africa subducts beneath Europe along an arc south of Crete, the sinking plate melts, generating volcanic activity,” said Avraam Zelilidis, Professor of Geology at the University of Patras, who attributed the earthquakes to magmatic movements. Other seismologists including Kostas Papazachos, suggest that the sequence could be a foreshock series leading to a larger earthquake. Seismologists remain divided on the risk of a major event. While some believe the earthquake swarm could stabilize, others caution that a larger earthquake exceeding M6.0 is possible.

Santorini under state of emergency after thousands of earthquakes, Greece - A state of emergency was declared for the Greek island of Santorini on February 6, 2025, due to significant seismic activity affecting the region over the past 10 days. The measure was announced by General Vasilis Papageorgiou, Civil Protection Secretary, and will remain in effect until March 3. The most powerful earthquake recorded so far, measuring 5.2 in magnitude, occurred on February 5. The continuous seismic activity has led to the evacuation of over 10 000 residents and workers from the island. The Greek government declared a state of emergency for the island of Santorini on February 6, 2025, following a series of undersea earthquakes that began at the end of January. “We are declaring a State of Civil Protection Emergency in the Municipality of Thera, in the Thera Regional Unit of the South Aegean Region, to respond to emergency needs and handle the repercussions of the seismic activity recorded in the area in recent weeks,” the official statement read. More than 7 700 earthquakes have been recorded in the region since January 26, with 800 of them exceeding a magnitude 2.5. The National Observatory of Athens, Geodynamic Institute (NOA-GI) recorded multiple strong earthquakes in recent days including, M4.8 at a depth of 12 km (7.4 miles) at 05:16 UTC and M4.2 at a depth of 11 km (6.8 miles) at 05:11 UTC on February 7. The most powerful earthquake so far was an M5.2 at 19:09 UTC on February 4, with an epicenter of 16 km (9.9 miles) south of Amorgos and a depth of 11.2 km (6.9 miles). Seismologists monitoring the activity stated that while a major earthquake exceeding M6.0 remains unlikely, the possibility cannot be ruled out. “It seems that a seismic fault has been activated, and it is quite large, capable of producing an earthquake above 6.0 Richter,” Professor Manolis Skordilis from the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki said. The National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA) Seismology Laboratory said it has recorded increased seismic activity between Nea Kameni and the Imerovigli-Fira region, aligning with the Kameni Line fault system. The activity is taking place near Kolumbo, an underwater volcano 6.5 km (4 miles) northeast of Santorini. Kolumbo is part of the larger Santorini volcanic complex and is known for its major eruption in 1650, which caused significant damage and fatalities due to pyroclastic flows, tsunamis, and gas emissions. The volcano remains active, with hydrothermal activity and periodic seismic swarms, making it a key focus for monitoring in the region. Ground deformation studies from the NKUA Geophysics Laboratory indicate a slight vertical uplift in the region, with movements comparable to those recorded during the 2011 to 2012 seismic crisis which lasted 14 months but did not result in an eruption.

Effusive eruption at Stromboli volcano, lava flowing down Sciara del Fuoco, Italy - Lava overflows from the northern summit area have been observed during effusive activity at Stromboli volcano since 07:08 LT (06:08 UTC) on February 6, 2025. The National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) confirmed that the activity follows an increase in spattering that has been ongoing for several days. The Aviation Color Code remains at Orange. Volcanic ash cloud had been detected thus far and the phenomenon was observed using visible and thermal surveillance cameras. The lava flow is moving down the upper portion of the Sciara del Fuoco, a prominent collapse scar on the volcano’s northwest flank. Regular explosive activity continues at both the North and Central-South summit areas. Volcanic tremor levels fluctuated between medium and high throughout the day. The tremor amplitude remains at medium levels according to the latest measurements. No variations have been detected in the frequency or amplitude of explosion earthquakes. Data from the high-frequency GPS network and the TDF tiltmeter station indicate no notable ground deformation which suggested no immediate changes in magma accumulation or subsurface pressure. The last time the Aviation Color Code for Stromboli was raised to Red was on July 11, 2024. The nearest inhabited areas are within 5 km (3.1 miles), home to around 2 225 residents. About 3 894 people live within a 30 km (18.6 mile) radius while the wider region within 100 km (62 miles) has a population exceeding 1.34 million. Lava overflow at Stromboli volcano at 06:29 LT (02:29 UTC) on February 6, 2025. Image credit: INGV Stromboli poses a persistent risk of pyroclastic flows, rockfalls, and tsunamis due to its frequent eruptions and steep terrain.

Very bright fireball illuminates Philadelphia skies, helicopters reported over possible impact site, U.S. – video A very bright green fireball illuminated the sky over Pennsylvania, U.S., at 08:44 UTC (03:44 LT) on Saturday, February 1, 2025. The event was widely observed across multiple states and parts of Canada, with some witnesses reporting a ground-level flash shortly after it disappeared. Others described flashing lights moving toward the area, followed by helicopters hovering over what appeared to be a possible impact site near a lake. Video credit: Mid Atlantic Severe Weather Alert Storm/Aurora Cam The American Meteor Society (AMS) received nine reports of the event from users in Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Ontario, Canada. “This was amazing, a once-in-a-lifetime event—very spectacular. I took the dog outside and saw this as I looked toward Lake Ontario from my back deck. It looked huge,” Barb from Ontario, Canada reported to AMS, adding the object had a light yellow color and a red tail. “Approximately 5 – 10 seconds after it disappeared, I saw a ground-level flash in the distance where it was heading (southwest). It looked like lightning, but it had to be an impact,” said an observer from Broomall, Pennsylvania. A user from Oshawa, Ontario, said he heard a slight popping sound like breaking through the atmosphere for like a few seconds. “Shortly after I saw the meteor there were a lot of flashing lights heading towards the lake then I saw a helicopter hovering around that area where it looked like it crashed in the lake,” he added. Ron from Evesham, New Jersey reported it looked like a blue/green lightning, with several pieces of green trails. The bright green color of the fireball suggests that nickel was the dominant element generating the green hue as it burned in the atmosphere.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 triggers planetary defense procedures - - A newly discovered asteroid designated 2024 YR4 has activated global planetary defense protocols after initial observations indicated a small but notable chance of impact in seven years. International monitoring networks have begun refining its trajectory, while space agencies evaluate potential response strategies, including possible deflection measures.(Asteroid 2024 YR4 orbit diagram on January 29, 2025.)

• Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been placed at the top of ESA’s risk list due to its estimated size of 40–100 meters (130–330 feet) and a 1.3% probability of impact in 2032, prompting intensified global monitoring and trajectory refinement efforts.
• The asteroid is currently classified as level 3 on the Torino Scale, indicating a close encounter that warrants attention but does not pose an immediate public concern. Scientists expect further observations to reduce uncertainties and potentially remove it from the risk list within weeks.
• The detection has activated global planetary defense protocols, with the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) gathering additional data and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) evaluating potential mitigation measures, including a possible deflection mission if the risk persists.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact risk updated to 1.8% - The impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 increased from 1.2% to 1.8% on February 6, 2025, following new trajectory simulations and refined calculations. While the increase remains within a low-risk range, continued monitoring and additional observations will be necessary to further refine impact predictions. Asteroid 2024 YR4 orbit diagram - February 6, 2025. The probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth has risen from 1.2% on January 29 to 1.8% on February 6, 2025, according to ESA’s Planetary Defense Office. The potential impact date remains December 22, 2032. Astronomers used simulations to analyze the asteroid’s potential trajectory, examining over 500 possibilities. The red line in the simulation graphic represents the range of possible paths the asteroid could take. This line is approximately 160 times wider than Earth’s diameter, measuring about 2 million km (1.24 million miles) in length. For comparison, Earth is about 12 756 km (7 926 miles) wide. The simulation shows a higher concentration of red dots closer to Earth, suggesting that the distribution is not uniform along the entire length of the line. The impact probability is estimated using the ratio of the Earth’s width to the width of the line, calculated as 1/54, or approximately 1.8%.

M7.6 solar flare erupts from Region 3981 – video - A moderately strong solar flare measuring M7.6 erupted from Active Region 3981 at 11:04 UTC on February 6, 2025. The event started at 10:47 and ended at 11:16 UTC. While CME was not produced during this event, Region 3981 is still exiting the Earth strike zone, making Earth-directed CMEs possible today or tomorrow. Additionally, with the presence of magnetically complex regions approaching the western limb, there is a possibility of elevated proton levels reaching S1 – Minor storm levels through February 8. m7.6 solar flare february 6 2025 sdo aia 304 f M7.6 solar flare on February 6, 2025. Image credit: NASA SDO/AIA 304, Helioviewer, The Watchers A 10 cm Radio Burst (tenflare) with a peak flux of 8 100 sfu and lasting 1 minute was associated with the M7.6 flare event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Updated chronograph imagery shows a northward CME which doesn’t appear to be related to this flare. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Africa at the time of the flare.

Satellite data analysis uncovers top 10 persistent methane sources - A list of the top 10 global regions where natural or anthropogenic sources emit methane on a continuous, "persistent" basis was recently published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The study analyzed data and measured emissions from hundreds of potential sources of methane based on satellite data. Data from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P mission was used to study and estimate methane emissions at 217 potential locations, as shown on the map above. The paper focused on sources that emit methane gradually over time, in contrast to "super-emitters"—typically oil and gas operations, coal mines or poorly managed landfills—which release disproportionately large amounts of methane but not on a continuous basis. Sentinel-5P, the result of a close collaboration between ESA, the European Commission, the Netherlands Space Office and industry, carries the state-of-the-art Tropomi instrument, which is used to map trace gases including methane. The study is based on a new methane concentration dataset and an algorithm developed by the University of Bremen as part of the ESA Climate Change Initiative Greenhouse Gas Project, as well as the ESA Earth System Science Hub projects, Methane CAMP and SMART-CH4. According to Claus Zehner, ESA's Mission Manager for Sentinel-5P, "Sentinel-5P is currently the only satellite that provides the feasibility to detect methane sources on a global scale and on a daily basis." Researchers analyzed concentrations of methane (parts per billion) for 2018–2021. A location was classified as a potential persistent emitter if levels of methane were consistently higher than the surrounding area. One of the paper's authors, Michael Buchwitz, Senior Scientist at the University of Bremen, explained, "The aim was not to identify specific events, where methane is only released for a short period of time. Instead, the aim was to identify sources that emit almost continuously during the four years that were analyzed. This includes natural sources such as wetlands, but also coal mining areas or large oil and gas fields." Wetlands are the most important natural sources of methane as microbes found in wetland soil emit high levels of the gas. The two natural sources indicated in the study's top 10 are both wetlands: the Sudd wetlands in southern Sudan and the Iberá wetlands in Argentina. The Sudd wetlands are a well-known methane source. Increased methane concentrations were detected across the Sudd region in 2020 and have been attributed to heavier rainfall and increased water flow from the White Nile. The region spans 500 km north to south and 200 km east to west, covering some 57,000 sq km, although it can double in size during rainy season. The Iberá wetlands, in the Corrientes province of Argentina, is about half the size of Sudd and is an important freshwater source in South America. It is listed as the third biggest potential persistent methane source in the study. The study also identified potential persistent methane emissions related to human activity. The biggest anthropogenic source was from the oil and gas fields on the west coast of Turkmenistan. Several oil and gas persistent emission sites were identified in North America, including the Permian Basin, which is America's highest producing oil field, spanning the border between Texas and New Mexico. The top 10 persistent emitting sources included three coal fields in Shanxi province in China, as well as Kuznetsk, one of the largest coal mining areas in Russia. The study also looked at other anthropogenic sources, which include landfills, wastewater, digestive gas from ruminant animals such as cattle, sheep and goats, as well as manure, rice and energy buildings.

Climate change puts African cocoa production under pressure ==Climate change is having a significant impact on cocoa production in West and Central Africa, according to a study by Wageningen University & Research (WUR). The region accounts for more than 70% of global cocoa production. Changes in temperature and rainfall are making some areas less suitable for cocoa cultivation, while others may benefit from the shifting climate.Researcher Paulina Asante from Ghana and her colleagues used a computer model to simulate the impact of climate change by 2060 in four countries: Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon. In the Ivory Coast, up to 50% of the current cocoa-growing areas could be lost, significantly reducing production. Ghana is expected to see a moderate decline in suitable areas, while Nigeria and Cameroon may experience an increase in arable land for cocoa. Cameroon's production could rise by 60%, and Nigeria's by approximately 40%.The work is published in the journal Agricultural and Forest Meteorology.These shifts may push cocoa farming into previously untouched areas, increasing the risk of deforestation, explains WUR researcher Niels Anten. "Cameroon has a relatively large amount of rainforest, and cocoa is often grown in areas that were originally tropical forests. This puts significant pressure on these ecosystems.""Addressing the impact of climate change on cocoa requires an all-hands-on-deck approach. It affects every stage of the supply chain: farmers face reduced yields, businesses encounter rising costs, and consumers see higher prices", says Paulina Asante.For many farmers in West Africa, who already face low incomes and limited access to resources, climate change could have profound consequences. To offset the negative effects, it is crucial to increase yields per hectare. There is significant potential for improvement, as the current production levels are far below their potential. Better soil management and targeted fertilization could help bridge this gap. Agroforestry, where cocoa trees are grown alongside other trees, also holds promise. Shade trees can lower temperatures, stabilize humidity, and provide additional products, diversifying farmers' incomes.

Agriculture Department staff told to ‘unpublish’ pages focused on climate change -- Public affairs personnel at the Agriculture Department were told to “unpublish” pages focused on climate change, according to guidelines obtained by The Hill.The Hill obtained an email sent to the department’s public affairs directors on Friday that instructed them to “Archive or Unpublish landing pages focused on climate change.”It said that climate change pages should not be completely deleted in accordance with federal records retention requirements. The Friday email also reiterated Thursday guidance instructing agencies to “identify all web content related to climate change and document it in a spreadsheet” for the office of communications to review. “For each piece of content, include the title, link, and your recommendation on how the content should be handled,” the directive said. The directions to scrub climate-related content were first reported by Politico.As of early Friday evening, pages related to climate change and the department’s “Climate Hubs” remained online. The directive mirrors efforts during the first Trump administration to remove climate-related pages at the Environmental Protection Agency. President Trump himself has repeatedly and incorrectly claimed climate change is a hoax and downplayed the anticipated impacts of the warming planet.

It's Time To Purge The Climate Scam From The Federal Websites — On November 12, 2024 — a week after the election — I had a post titled “Ideas For An Incoming Trump Administration: Climate And Energy Edition.” The first subject covered in that post was “Communications.” I stated there: [C]hanging the communications of the prior administration should be an easy and obvious first priority. However, the Trump people notably did a poor job on this subject the first time out. The subject of climate and energy is pervasive through the websites of dozens of federal agencies.I had followed the EPA website in particular during the first Trump term, and it had been little changed even a year after Trump took office. This time around, Trump and his people are doing a far better job of hitting the ground running on many issues. That is notably true in the area of climate and energy communications: a week in, there are already some meaningful changes at the websites of various agencies. However, changing communications on these issues is not a small task; the government websites during the Biden era had pervasive climate propaganda in thousands of locations.So, a week into the new administration, here are some of the things that have either changed or not so far.My November post noted that there was a big section, dominating the Department’s website, titled “Combating the Climate Crisis.” Today, if you go to the Department’s opening web page, it’s quite different. The front page headline is “Restoring Energy Dominance,” followed by “President Trump’s Day One Actions will Return the Department to Regular Order.” Here’s how it starts:The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), effective today, is ending the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) pause and returning to regular order following direction given by President Donald J. Trump to “unleash American Energy Dominance.” Another big front-page topic back in November was “Energy Justice.” Today, if you go to the link that I had then for “Energy Justice,” you will be taken back to the opening page with the headline “Restoring Energy Dominance.” The whole “Energy Justice” thing seems to have disappeared. That’s great progress. On the other hand, if you go to the old November link for “Combatting the Climate Crisis,” you will find that a page full of the old Biden-era claptrap is still up:There is no greater challenge facing our nation and our planet than the climate crisis. That’s why President Biden has laid out the boldest climate agenda in our nation’s history—one that will spur an equitable clean energy economy and cement America on a path to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. . . . To their credit, the old links to this stuff on the introductory page are gone, and using the site’s search function doesn’t turn this up. Likely, it will be memory-holed shortly. And yet there is still plenty of junk stuff up on this website that needs to go. As a few examples:

• A section on “Decarbonization” (“The shift to a low-carbon economy will be one of the most significant economic transformations in history. Through the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE’s) decarbonization initiatives, the United States is poised to capture the economic and other benefits of revolutionary decarbonization technologies.”)
• A section on “Carbon Management” (“Carbon management encompasses a suite of technologies used to capture, transport, convert, and store carbon dioxide, as well as remove it directly from the atmosphere.”)
• A section on the “Floating Offshore Wind Shot” (“The Floating Offshore Wind Energy Shot™ seeks to reduce the cost of floating offshore wind energy by more than 70% by 2035 for deep water sites far from shore.”)
• A section on the “Net Zero Economy” (“A net-zero economy averts or removes as much greenhouse gas as it produces. Achieving this balance by 2050 is a pivotal undertaking for the United States”)

And there are many more such. So there is a long way to go. However, they have made a reasonable start. Given that it has only been a week, I would rate the effort an A-.

Zeldin: Anyone who isn’t ‘committed to’ Trump’s directives shouldn’t be at EPA - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin said Friday that anyone who is uncommitted to carrying out President Trump’s directives may not belong at the agency.“I don’t believe that anyone should be here at EPA who is not committed to the agency mission and the lawful directives coming from the duly elected president of the United States,” Zeldin told reporters.However, he also said he valued people who may have different opinions on how to best carry out Trump’s policies. “I love hearing a diversity of view and thought on decisions that we have to make here ithin the agency,” Zeldin said. “When a lawful directive comes from the president of the United States, any president of the United States, to have an agency achieve a goal within a deadline, there are oftentimes many different ways to get that done,” he added.Zeldin, who was confirmed to lead the EPA on Wednesday, also predicted that there will be “a headcount reduction in agencies all across the federal government.” “For us, we have to closely monitor who is deciding to stay and who’s deciding to go, and making sure that we’re filling all of our most important positions with urgency,” he added.His comments come after the Trump administration sent a memo to federal employees offering buyouts if they do not wish to return to work. It also comes after Trump has indicated that he could use a tool called “Schedule F” to make it easier to fire career officials.Opponents of doing so have expressed concerns that such cuts could result in a “brain drain” at science agencies like the EPA.

EPA tells 1,000 employees they could be fired ‘immediately’ More than 1,000 employees at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) were notified last week that they may be subject to immediate firing, according to an email obtained by The Hill. The email, sent Wednesday by EPA mission support official Kimberly Patrick, notifies impacted employees that they are “likely on a probationary/trial period.” “As a probationary/trial period employee, the agency has the right to immediately terminate you,” the email says. Nicole Cantello, president of the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE) Local Local 704, which represents EPA employees in the Midwest, said that more than 1,000 employees nationwide received the email. Cantello said she fears that this is a “prelude” for firing newer workers who have less than a year of federal service. “We’re really concerned, deeply concerned, that the next step will be removing these employees,” she said. The email comes after about 2 million federal employees received offers for a “buyout” to leave government work. The EPA’s website says that it employs more than 15,000 people. Cantello said she feared that between the buyout and the potential dismissal of newer staffers, the agency could lose one-tenth of its personnel, which would “decimate the agency.” “These people work on things like getting the lead out of pipes or enforcing environmental laws like the Clean Water Act and the Clean Air Act. They work on things like Brownfields, which turn contaminated land into usable land. They work on Superfund sites, which cleans up toxic pollution,” she said. “American people will really suffer if we don’t keep these people on the clock,” she added.

WV Leads 22 States in Suing NY Over $75B Climate Superfund Law -Marcellus Drilling News - At the end of the last legislative session in December, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, an extremist liberal, signed into law a new climate bill forcing a short list of Big Oil companies to pay $75 billion in “recovery” assessments over the next 25 years for their alleged role in causing mythical global warming (see NY Gov. Hochul Goes Nuts: Signs Law Billing O&G Companies $75B). We outlined how the law is unconstitutional and illegal (see The Legal Case Against NY Law Taxing O&G $75B for Global Warming). Yesterday, the Attorneys General for 22 states, led by the AG from West Virginia, filed a lawsuit in federal court challenging NY’s Climate Superfund Act.

22 states sue New York state, alleging environmental fund is unconstitutional (AP) — Twenty-two states sued New York state on Thursday, contending that a new law forcing a small group of major energy producers to pay $75 billion into a fund to cover climate change damage is unconstitutional. The lawsuit, filed in Albany, New York, lists Attorney General Letitia James and other state officials as defendants. Messages seeking comment were sent to the defendants. According to a release, West Virginia Attorney General JB McCuskey led the coalition of states against the New York state Climate Change Superfund Act, which requires payments for damage allegedly done from 2000 to 2018. The law requires major fossil fuel companies to pay into the fund over the next quarter-century based on their past gas emissions. “This lawsuit is to ensure that these misguided policies, being forced from one state onto the entire nation, will not lead America into the doldrums of an energy crisis, allowing China, India and Russia to overtake our energy independence,” McCuskey said in a release. “This law is unconstitutional, and I am proud to lead this coalition of attorneys general and brave private energy companies and industry groups in our fight to protect against this overreach,” McCuskey added. “If we allow New York to get away with this, it will only be a matter of time before other states follow suit – wrecking our nation’s power grid.” The lawsuit accuses New York state of trying to force energy producers and consumers in other states “to subsidize certain New York-based ‘infrastructure’ projects, such as a new sewer system in New York City.”

Honda's new EV production revolution begins with $1 billion in Ohio — Honda Motor is launching the next generation of its manufacturing in a historically unusual place for the 75-year-old Japanese automaker: Ohio. Honda is in the midst of completing more than $1 billion in new investments — upped Wednesday from an initially announced $700 million — in the state this year. Upgrades most notably include installing six "giga presses," which were made well-known by Tesla, and a new "cell" manufacturing system for its upcoming electric vehicle battery cases.The company's emerging EV hub in Ohio, including a separate $3.5 billion battery plant, will be the flagship for Honda's global manufacturing operations. That includes its Marysville Auto Plant being capable of producing traditional vehicles, hybrids and EVs on the same assembly line, officials said during a daylong tour of the operations."The Honda EV hub in Ohio is establishing the global standard for EV production for people, for technology and for processes," said Mike Fischer, North American lead for Honda's battery-electric vehicle projects. "As we expand EV production regionally and globally, this is the footprint and the characteristic performance that will be used."Typically such important manufacturing changes would begin in Honda's home country of Japan and then get rolled out tofacilities in the U.S. and elsewhere, according to company officials.The Ohio investments were initially announced in October 2022 as part of the Biden administration's push to on-shore manufacturing. They remain important amid threats ofpotential increases in tariffs for imported products such as automobiles by President Donald Trump.Honda produced more than 1 million vehicles at five U.S. assembly plants in 2024. About 64% percent were sold in the U.S., while the remainder were exported. It has one assembly plant in Mexico. Once completed, Honda will be able to produce roughly 220,000 vehicles annually at its Marysville plant, located in central Ohio outside of Columbus. The 4 million-square-foot facility currently produces several Honda and Acura vehicles, which are expected to be joined later this year by an all-electric Acura RSX crossover — the first EV produced by Honda.

Why Trump’s Positions on EVs Would Shoot America in the Foot - Inside Climate News -- As part of his Day One executive order titled “Unleashing American Energy,” President Donald Trump rolled back the Biden administration’s goal for half of vehicles sold in America by 2030 to be electric.Getting rid of the $7,500 EV tax credit and federal funding for charging stations may take acts of Congress, but already this effort to shift EVs into reverse is making for uncertainty in the U.S. auto industry. Jim Motavalli writes about green transportation for Autoweek and Barron’s. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Hydrogen Hopeful Nikola Nears Bankruptcy - Hydrogen truck maker Nikola is considering a sale or a restructuring as it prepares to file for bankruptcy, the Wall Street Journal has reported, citing unnamed sources close to developments.The company enjoyed a lot of attention when it went public in 2020 despite not having sold any products at the time. Even so, its market cap at one point hit $30 billion, making the company temporarily more valuable than Ford. Later, however, a short seller revealed its chief executive had overhyped Nikola’s business plan to investors, for which he was sued and convicted, and the company’s market value collapsed.Nikola last year produced a total of some 80 hydrogen trucks, on which it incurred a loss of close to $200 million. According to the Wall Street Journal report, the company’s biggest challenge turned out to be the development of batteries that were light enough and energy-dense enough to make sense.“Companies and their investors have spent hundreds of millions of dollars trying to design and manufacture lighter, more efficient batteries at scale,” Colin Adams, partner at a restructuring adviser, told the WSJ. “Right now, you’re seeing the results in the competition between capital and physics. In this first round, physics appears to be the winner.”

Rare Earth Supply Chain Faces New Challenges as Trade War Escalates -The Rare Earths MMI (Monthly Metals Index) held sideways from January to February, moving up a slight 2.88%. Rare earths prices have proven more volatile in the past year than other metal products like steel. Now, it seems the rare earth market could witness more volatility in 2025.President Trump recently imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, which includes rare earths. Meanwhile, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) remains in extensive control of Myanmar’s valuable rare earth mines, severely limiting the Burmese government’s control over this sector. In early February, President Trump enacted a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, intensifying global trade tensions and raising concerns about its potential impact on industries reliant on rare earth elements. China currently supplies between 85% and 95% of the global demand for rare earth elements, granting it significant influence over global supply and pricing.As reported by Reuters, China announced export controls on critical minerals, including rare earths, in retaliation to the U.S. tariffs. This signals the country’s readiness to leverage its dominant position in the sector.These tariffs have led to concerns about supply chain disruptions and increased costs for industries dependent on rare earth elements. Because of these developments, manufacturers in sectors such as electronics, automotive, and defense could face challenges securing necessary materials. Reuters states that this could lead to production delays and higher prices for consumers.Some analysts argue that the level of concern may be disproportionate to the actual threat. They argue that the global market has previously navigated similar challenges.For instance, during past trade disputes, companies adapted by diversifying their supply chains and investing in alternative sources of rare earths. Additionally, the current export controls by China are targeted and leave room for negotiation, suggesting that a complete cutoff of rare earth supplies is unlikely. One way to reduce dependence on a single supplier and increase resilience to geopolitical disruptions is to diversify the supply of rare earth elements across multiple sources. Another way of balancing the world’s supply of rare earths is to invest in exploration and development in places like Australia. Nations can also decrease their reliance on primary sources by supporting technologies that concentrate on producing alternative materials or recycling rare earth elements from goods that have reached the end of their useful lives.In the past year, Myanmar’s rare earth mining sector has faced significant upheaval due to escalating conflicts involving armed ethnic groups. This stems from moves by the Kachin Independence Army, an ethnic insurgent group, which has seized control of key mining hubs in Kachin State. Most notable are those located in Panwa and Chipwe, which are critical suppliers of rare earth oxides to China. Historically, these mining areas were controlled by the New Democratic Army-Kachin, a militia allied with Myanmar’s junta government. However, recent KIA offensives have altered this dynamic. Analysts suggest that while the KIA may intend to resume rare earth operations, negotiations with China could delay any quick restart, potentially tightening global supply and increasing prices.

Georgia Power wants to run coal plants to meet electricity demand -- Georgia Power is pushing to keep its coal plants running longer, citing rising electricity demand driven largely by power-hungry data centers. The company, Georgia's largest private utility, filed its long-term energy plan with regulators on Friday, outlining how it will generate and distribute power in the coming years. The Georgia Public Service Commission, composed of five elected Republicans, will hold hearings before voting on the plan. Georgia Power will propose a rate plan later, with a final vote expected in December. A major factor in the debate is how much these plans will cost consumers. The typical Georgia Power residential customer currently pays an average US$163.57 per month before taxes, up from $123.31 in 2019. Rate hikes have outpaced inflation, driven in part by higher natural gas costs and the expansion of nuclear power at Plant Vogtle near Augusta. Georgia Power increased its demand forecast by 2,000 megawatts per year, nearly the same output as both new reactors at Plant Vogtle combined. Overall, the company says it needs 8,000 additional megawatts per year in the near future. "The 2025 IRP provides a comprehensive plan to support Georgia's continued economic growth and serve Georgians with clean, safe, reliable, and affordable energy well into the future," said Georgia Power CEO Kim Greene. However, critics argue the plan relies too heavily on fossil fuels. "Are we really going to power progress with gas and coal?" asked Jennifer Whitfield of the Southern Environmental Law Center. "Coal has not been economical for years, and paying for even more methane gas is incompatible with the future Georgians want, and businesses are demanding." Georgia Power now wants to extend the life of coal units that were set to close. Instead of retiring a Plant Scherer unit near Macon in 2028, the company wants to operate it until 2035 or 2038. The exact timeline applies to Plant Bowen, northwest of Atlanta in Euharlee. The company also plans to keep Plant Gaston in Alabama running through 2034 instead of closing it in 2028. To offset some emissions, Georgia Power proposes burning natural gas alongside coal at Scherer and Bowen. It also plans to expand nuclear output at Vogtle and Hatch and increase natural gas capacity at Plant McIntosh near Savannah. The company will also seek bids from outside developers for 1,100 megawatts of solar and battery storage, though this falls far short of the energy output from extended coal operations. Additionally, Georgia Power wants to launch a program allowing small customers to install solar and battery storage at home, earning bill credits for providing electricity back to the grid when needed.

AI energy demand predictions have echoes of the great horse manure crisis - Reading through the comments thread beneath a recent Telegraph column that had suggested that the UK was relatively well placed for the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution, I was struck by the following observation. The UK was doomed to fail in AI, it said, because AI was highly energy intensive, and the UK has some of the most expensive electricity in the world, poised to get even more so with the Government’s headlong dash for net zero. Who in such circumstances would want to build “hyper-scale” data centres in the UK? Good point, I thought, and excellent fodder for another column.It didn’t take long, however, for the idea to be thoroughly debunked. No doubt many of the claims being made about DeepSeek are exaggerated, but even if they are half right about the much lower energy consumption of China’s low-cost AI model, then some of the projections around AI’s demand for power are going to look way over the top. Speaking via a video link to global elites in Davos last week, Donald Trump said the US would need to double the amount of energy it produces to satisfy the ambitions of the AI hyper-scalers. This was a far bigger estimate than even the highest such prediction I’d seen up until that point – that of the management consultants McKinsey, which forecast that global data-centre demand might grow by 240GW between 2023 and 2030, and that in the US they would absorb some 12pc of all the power generated.That’s a long way below what Trump seems to imagine, but it would still require a massive upscaling of both US power generation and distribution. And already plans are well advanced to meet that demand.Writing for BloombergNEF, the UK based clean energy entrepreneur Michael Liebreich says that most of the data centres used to train AI models currently in construction are in the 100MW and 250MW range, much bigger than anything that’s gone before – but what the tech giants really want are training centres of between 1GW and 2GW.Recently announced in a blaze of publicity, Trump’s $500bn (£400bn) Stargate supercomputer complex would require 5GW. Amazon alone proposes to spend $150bn on data centres over the next 15 years.All these plans now begin to look massively overblown. DeepSeek’s “Sputnik moment” also points to an already monumental, hype-driven misallocation of capital that threatens to drive significant losses and write-offs across the tech sector for some years to come. Hundreds of billions of investment dollars are being sunk into AI, but so far for little or no return. For comparison, look back to the turn of the century dot-com and mobile telephone bubbles, which gave us a wonderful new technological infrastructure but also an eventual bust in which many people and organisations lost their shirts. Some of the same excess can be seen in the rush to secure seemingly scarce energy supply for AI. In anticipation of explosive growth, the US state of Georgia alone is planning for 36.5 GW of new demand in the next decade, or around a half of current peak demand in the UK, including 19.9 GW in the next four years. Elon Musk, Trump’s new confidante, noted in March last year that “we have silicon shortage today, a transformer shortage in about a year and electricity shortages in about two years”.Mark Zuckerberg, the chief executive of Meta, has claimed his company would build more data centres if only it could get more power.Sam Altman, the founder of OpenAI, likewise: “We still don’t appreciate the energy needs of this technology ... We need fusion or we need radically cheaper solar plus storage, or something.” Or maybe not. One of the abiding truths about technological innovation is that what starts off as clunky and barely worth the time and effort required to use it rapidly generates big improvements in efficiency, driving down costs and ease of use, and eventually creating a virtuous circle of rising supply and demand.

ODNR Uses Drones to Sniff Out Orphaned Oil & Gas Wells in Ohio - Marcellus Drilling News - The Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR), Division of Oil and Gas Resources Management, is about to fly drones equipped with magnetometers to sniff out orphaned oil and gas wells in Van Wert County. The ODNR previously completed drone flights in Auglaize, Hancock, Mercer, and Wood counties. The ODNR issued a press release to inform (warn) about the upcoming flights, no doubt to prevent the mass hysteria we’ve seen in recent months about drone flights along the Eastern seaboard.

Exclusive: Encino's owner mulls $7 billion sale, IPO of energy producer, sources say (Reuters) - Canadian pension fund CPP Investments is weighing strategic options, including a sale or initial public offering, for Encino Acquisition Partners that could value the U.S. oil and natural gas producer at as much as $7 billion, including debt, people familiar with the matter said. The deliberations come as the energy industry is anticipating tailwinds from the administration of President Donald Trump, which has put forward an economic agenda tailored to boost fossil-fuel production, as it speeds up permits for energy projects and rolls back environmental protections. Moreover, the booming demand for artificial intelligence and data centers is expected to drive a jump in U.S. power demand, which in turn is likely to boost the need for natural gas to fuel power generation. Houston, Texas-based Encino, which is majority-owned by CPP, is in the early stages of evaluating options and is working on selecting investment banks to lead the review process, the sources said, requesting anonymity as the matter is confidential. A deal is expected to happen later this year, the sources said, cautioning that Encino's plans are subject to market conditions. Encino and CPP declined to comment. Encino operates in the Utica shale basin of Ohio and is one of the largest privately owned oil and gas exploration and production companies in the United States. It was formed in 2017 as a partnership to buy and develop U.S. oil and gas assets. Under the terms of the agreement, CPP Investments invested $1 billion in the venture, while oil and gas producer Encino Energy agreed to operate the acquired assets. A year later, Encino Acquisition Partners bought Chesapeake Energy's Ohio assets for $2 billion. CPP Investments said in April 2024 it would invest another $300 million in the business to help accelerate the development of the company's assets. In January, Infinity Natural Resources raised $265 million from its IPO and the company's shares jumped on their debut in New York. The positive market reaction to the natural gas producer's stock market launch helped accelerate Encino's decision to explore its options, one of the sources said.

Shocker: Encino Energy Considers Sale or Possible IPO for $7B | Marcellus Drilling News -- We suppose we shouldn't be shocked, but we are. Reuters is exclusively reporting that Canadian pension fund CPP Investments, the majority owner of Encino Acquisition Partners (aka Encino Energy), is considering either a sale of the company or possibly an initial public offering (IPO) that values the company at roughly $7 billion. Encino's claim to fame is that after taking over Chesapeake Energy's Ohio Utica assets in 2018, it cracked the code on how to coax crude oil (condensate) out of the low-pressure Utica shale (see Oil Prod. in Northern Utica Comes Alive – Encino Cracks Oil Code). The company quickly became the #1 producer of crude oil in the Utica (see Encino’s “Four Pillars” Transformed Co. into M-U’s Top Oil Producer).

22 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Jan 27 – Feb 2 -Marcellus Drilling News- For the week of Jan 27 – Feb 2, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells recovered from the previous week. Two weeks ago, only 7 new permits were issued. Last week, the number increased to 22 new permits issued. Whereas the Keystone State (PA) issued no new permits two weeks ago, PA issued 13 new permits last week. Six of those permits went to Apex Energy in Westmoreland County. Five permits were issued to EQT (Rice Drilling) in Greene and Lycoming counties. And two permits went to Expand Energy (Chesapeake) in Bradford County ANTERO RESOURCES | APEX ENERGY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | LYCOMING COUNTY | RITCHIE COUNTY | WESTMORELAND COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY

Why New York and Others Must Embrace Natural Gas -It’s not just Republicans saying the Democrats are in disarray. Even Democrats are admitting the quiet part out loud.Take New York Congressman Pat Ryan, the moderate from Hudson Valley, who declared that “Democrats got our butts kicked in November… We became the party of the elites, and folks felt that.”Yet, rather than turn the page, New York’s Governor is doubling down on the old.Kathy Hochul’s latest $252 billion budget is more than 8% higher than last year’s. The additional revenue is, of course, more taxes. New Yorkers will pay a new$75billion tax on oil and gas disguised as some climate change justice. New Yorkersnow pay $9 for the privilege of sitting in traffic, courtesy of the nation’s first “congestion fee.”Luckily for Governor Hochul, there is a proven winner hiding in plain sight: natural gas. Natural gas is so popular that it was embraced by Vice President Kamala Harris, as it was by Barack Obama before her. During last year’s campaign, Harris even made clear her support for fracking, opposing any sort of national ban favored by the likes of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.Surely, Governor Hochul aligns with the former Vice President? During campaign rallies the Governor repeated the line “New York is Kamala Harris country” adding “Kamala President Harris fights for freedom.” It’s exactly that sort of economic freedom New York currently needs and desperately. The potential for New York is untold. An enormous portion of the Marcellus Shale Formation runs under the state with an estimated 9 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. A few thousand feet below that lies the Utica Shale Formation, with an additional 38 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 1 billion barrels of oil. So important are these resources that neighbor Pennsylvania not only supports fracking, but their Democratic Governor (once on Harris’ short list for Vice President) Josh Shapiro embraces it. So does U.S. Senator John Fetterman. The highest-ranking Democrat too slow and too milquetoast in defending Pennsylvania’s energy industry was former Senator Bob Casey. “Former” being the operative word. After 18 years in the Senate, Casey lost his seat to pro-energy outsider Dave McCormick, who featured the issue prominently in his campaign. In Pennsylvania, it’s politically dangerous to oppose energy. It is clear why: the industry supports hundreds of thousands of high-paying jobs and generates nearly $40 billion in economic activity. Rural, working-class Americans are thriving in Pennsylvania because of the energy industry, and as Bob Casey found out the hard way, they vote. New York is the fourth largest natural gas consumer, and yet despite its tremendous reserves, it imports natural gas. As Governor Hochul, and previously Governor Andrew Cuomo, embrace green policies, New York’s electricity priceshave climbed year over year to among the highest in the nation. New York also has an unemployment rate of 4.4%, 35^th worst in the nation. Embracing natural gas fixes so many of New York’s problems. It brings increased revenue, jobs, and affordable energy. It promotes development in rural communities. It allows elected leaders to start “meeting people where they are,” as Rep. Ryan put it. If Governor Hochul is wedded to the Democrats of old, fear-mongering climate hysteria, denigration of fossil fuels, and an illogical support for failed green policies, Pat Ryan, Josh Shapiro and others need to push them out of the party and out of office.Energy is everything, and New York has incredible untaped energy potential. With real leadership, the Empire State can become an energy empire, but only if the left retires their visionless and weak politicians and return to their roots of working for the people.

NFE Plans Onshore Construction of Second Mexico LNG Export Facility This Year --New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) aims to start construction on a second phase of its Fast LNG export project in Mexico this year, adding to a growing wave of U.S. feed gas demand from Mexico. Image of Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) North American Pipelines and LNG map showcasing a section of the Sur de Texas-Tuxpan pipeline in Mexico. In an investor presentation published at the end of last month, NFE disclosed construction and conversion of onshore facilities at the onshore Altamira import facility on Mexico’s Atlantic coast could begin by 3Q2025. Modular liquefaction equipment, the same used in the first Fast LNG unit offshore, are currently under construction at the Kiewit Corp. shipyard in Ingleside, TX. Commissioning and start-up of FLNG 2 is expected within the first six months of 2027, according to NFE. Once operational, the facility would add 1.4 million tons/year (Mt/y) of export capacity to NFE’s Mexico operations, totaling 2.8 Mt/y.

Trump Administration Returns to ‘Regular Order’ on LNG Exports, Revokes ‘Wrongful Withdrawal’ of Offshore Drilling -- The Trump administration’s Interior and Energy Department chiefs took steps this week to remove obstacles to expand natural gas and oil drilling by pulling the plug on Biden administration orders and pledging to approve permits for long-delayed energy infrastructure. Interior Department Secretary Doug Burgum signed six secretarial orders on Monday that included removing the block on future natural gas and oil drilling off the East Coast, eastern Gulf of Mexico, Pacific Coast and a portion of Alaska’s Northern Bering Sea. And Energy Department (DOE) Secretary Chris Wright, former Liberty Energy Inc. CEO, laid out his priorities on Wednesday, which include clearing obstacles to permitting natural gas and oil infrastructure.

Energy Industry Wants DOE to Eliminate Seven-Year Export Deadline — The U.S. LNG industry is urging the Trump administration to rescind a policy statement issued under former President Biden that requires all projects to start exporting the super-chilled fuel within seven years of receiving export authorization from the Department of Energy (DOE). Chart showing annual U.S. LNG cargoes sent to China over the last few years. DOE said in 2023 that it would not extend its authorizations unless a project had already started construction or could demonstrate that “extenuating circumstances” have delayed it. “Several projects that are approaching the seven-year deadline are unlikely to meet this inflexible/unworkable policy and will need more time for completion,” said LNG Allies CEO Fred Hutchison. “Without a policy change, construction schedules cannot be finalized, and projects may be in jeopardy.”

Natural Gas Market Bracing for U.S. Trade War, but Nymex Impacts ‘Minimal’ So Far -- Natural gas markets showed signs of nerves Monday as news of U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico made headlines. None Over the weekend, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico, and all imports from Canada barring energy, which would be faced with a 10% levy. The tariffs were meant to take effect on Tuesday. Trump said the tariffs were related to undocumented migrants and illegal drugs that came into the country from Canada and Mexico.

US natural gas prices jump on colder forecast, sanctions worries - US natural gas futures jumped about 9% on Monday on forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand next week and worries about supplies from Canada related to US President Donald Trump’s sanctions. In 2024, about 9%, or roughly 8.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of the gas consumed in the US came from Canada, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That compares with average US imports from Canada of around 7.6 bcfd during the prior five years (2019-2023). Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 26.8 cents, or 8.8%, to $3.312 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 6:34 a.m. EST (1134 GMT). On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since Dec. 4 for a second day in a row. That futures price jump pushed the front-month out of technically oversold territory. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 105.7 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.5 in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Freeze-offs from Jan. 18-21 cut output by 6.9 bcfd to a one-year low of 96.9 bcfd on Jan. 21. All of the curtailed output was back in service by Jan. 28.

US natgas prices fall 5% on lower LNG feedgas, tariff delays -- U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Tuesday as less gas flowed to the nation’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and after President Donald Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada. That tariff suspension reduced futures prices because roughly 9% of the gas consumed in the United States comes from Canada, and higher tariffs would have boosted the cost of that fuel. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.5 cents, or 5.2%, to $3.177 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:05 a.m. EST (1305 GMT). In the spot market, uncertainty about the tariffs on Monday boosted gas prices at the AECO hub in Alberta by over 70% to $3.68 per mmBtu, their highest since January 2024. That Canadian gas spike sent next-day power prices at the Mid Columbia hub in Oregon soaring by more than 124% to a near five-month high of around $235 per megawatt hour. The Pacific Northwest is heavily dependent on gas supplies from Canada. About two-thirds of the gas used in Oregon comes from Canada, according to state data and local media reports. In 2024, gas-fired plants generated about 38% of the power in Oregon. Most of the rest – about 41% – came from hydropower dams, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The United States consumed a record 90.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas in 2024. About 8.4 bcfd, or roughly 9%, of that fuel came from Canada, according to the EIA. That compares with U.S. imports from Canada of around 8.0 bcfd in 2023 and an average of 7.5 bcfd during the prior five years (2018-2022). Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production, according to LSEG data. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, output was on track to fall by around 1.5 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 105.1 bcfd on Tuesday, down from a daily record high of 106.6 bcfd on Jan. 31. The prior all-time high was 106.4 bcfd in January 2024. After extreme cold last week boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage this month. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 billion cubic feet in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would switch from warmer than normal through Feb. 8 to mostly colder than normal from Feb. 9-19. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 123.8 bcfd this week to 132.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Monday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.0 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to fall to 14.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a reduction in flows to Cheniere Energy’s 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana. Flows to Sabine were on track to drop to a 13-week low of 4.1 bcfd on Tuesday, down from 4.6 bcfd on Monday and an average of 4.9 bcfd over the prior seven days.

US natgas prices edge up to one-week high on rising LNG flows, colder weather — U.S. natural gas futures edged up 1% to a one-week high on Thursday on a slightly bigger-than-expected storage draw last week, rising flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures NG1! for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 4.8 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $3.408 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since January 29 for a second day in a row. The price increase came despite an increase in output. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 174 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended January 31. That was slightly higher than the 168-bcf draw analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a drop of 110 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 174 bcf for this time of year. After extreme cold late last month boosted heating demand to a record high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through February 21 except for some colder-than-normal days from February 10-14. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 124.1 bcfd this week to 135.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 14.9 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Gas was trading near a 15-month high of around $17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) benchmark in Europe. In Asia, meanwhile, gas was trading around $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) benchmark.

US natgas prices slide 3% on rising output, lower demand forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Friday on rising output and forecasts for lower demand next week than previously expected. That price decline came despite rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for colder weather over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.9 cents, or 2.9%, to settle at $3.309 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since January 29 for a second day in a row. For the week, the front-month was up about 9% after dropping about 24% last week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February, up from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output was on track to fall by 1.1 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 105.4 bcfd on Friday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.5 bcfd on January 31. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. After extreme cold last month boosted heating demand to an all-time high, analysts said energy firms may have pulled a record amount of gas out of storage in January. The current record monthly storage withdrawal is 994 bcf in January 2022, according to federal energy data. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 22. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecasts average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will rise from 124.3 bcfd this week to 133.4 bcfd next week and 133.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.1 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. Gas was trading at a 15-month high of around $17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and an eight-week high of around $15 at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.

Demand Strong for Natural Gas Equipment Beyond LNG, with Power Market Gaining, Says Baker Hughes CEO --Natural gas and LNG consumption continues to accelerate globally, in parallel with increasingly positive trends for power demand, according to Baker Hughes Co. CEO Lorenzo Simonelli. Bar chart showing Baker Hughes Co.'s primary energy demand outlook through 2040. The Houston-based global oilfield services giant provides an array of products that serve natural gas, oil and power markets. Simonelli shared his view of 2025 last Friday during a quarterly conference call. “The global economy will be navigating a number of economic and geopolitical uncertainties, which could result in another year of uneven global economic growth,” he said of 2025. “Against this economic backdrop, we have seen increasingly positive trends for power consumption.

LNG Freight Rates at Historic Lows as Supply Climbs Slowly and Demand Remains Limited -Too many ships and limited global demand has continued to push LNG shipping rates to record lows, but with so many vessels available, importers could benefit from lower shipping costs. Chart showing Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) and Fearnleys' estimates for spot LNG vessel rates. Widening the discount are the 90 new-build ships scheduled this year to hit a market that’s already flush with available vessels. The global fleet stands at about 650 ships. Moreover, the additional LNG capacity new ships are ultimately designed to serve is not expected to enter service until later in the decade. For a round-trip voyage in the Atlantic Basin, LNG freight rates were assessed at $4,250/day for a 174,000 cubic meter two-stroke vessel on Tuesday, up by $250 from Monday, according to Spark Commodities. In the Pacific, they were at $11,000, down by $500 from Monday.

Crude oil spill in Bottineau County (KMOT) – State regulators said 300 barrels of crude oil spilled from a tank overflow roughly five miles northwest of Maxbass. Scout Energy Management reported the spill Wednesday, according to the North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality. The report indicated some of the spill sprayed off the well pad. The department is working with the responsible party to monitor cleanup.

Crews cleaning up after crude oil spill in north central North Dakota (KFGO) – Scout Energy Management reported a large oil spill five miles northwest of Maxbass Wednesday. The North Dakota Department of Environmental Quality says 300 barrels, amounting to about 12,600 gallons of the crude oil spilled from the tank. The report indicated some of the spill sprayed off the well pad. Department personnel are working with the responsible company and will continue to monitor the remediation.

Trump’s Tariff Push Will Give LNG Exporters Bigger Asian Presence -President Donald Trump’s approach to fixing U.S. trade deficits with the country’s biggest trading partners will benefit LNG exporters to Asia, giving them a bigger share of that market, Bloomberg Intelligence has forecast.The EU has already suggested it would increase its purchases of U.S. liquefied gas after Trump urged the bloc to do just that in order to shrink its surplus with the United States, which he considers unacceptable.Japan’s JERA was just recently reported to consider greater imports of U.S. LNG as well, seeking to diversify its sources of the commodity but also falling in line with Trump’s quest against trade deficits, as Japan is another big trade partner.JERA buys some 30 to 35 million tons of liquefied natural gas annually, of which just 3.2 million tons currently come from the U.S. The rest is imported mainly from Australia, Indonesia, and Malaysia. These are the countries set to suffer the biggest losses in Asian market share as U.S. exporters ramp up their shipments.China is also planning to buy more liquefied gas from the United States. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Chinese gas traders have committed to buying a total of 14 million tons from U.S. producers beginning in 2026. This is 50% more than China’s previous record of U.S. LNG purchases, set back in 2021.Other Asian nations are also ramping up their purchases of American LNG. Bangladesh just this week signed a supply deal with Louisiana-based Argent for the delivery of 5 million tons of the superchilled fuel annually. Meanwhile, PetroVietnam bought a U.S. LNG cargo for delivery in March. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, these developments could lead to less price volatility as additional supply caps rates at around $10 per million British thermal units. Not everyone agrees, however, with some predicting that European LNG demand growth, at some 14 million tons annually, would in fact boost prices.

China Slaps Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Crude and LNG - China has struck back at Trump’s latest tariffs on Chinese imports into the United States, announcing today a 15% levy on imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and coal, and a 10% tariff on crude oil. Beijing also introduced export limits on more critical minerals, including tungsten, molybdenum, tellurium, ruthenium, and ruthenium-related elements in a bid to “safeguard national security interests,” Reuters reported. Tariffs will be introduced on farm equipment imports from the United States as well as some cars. “The trade war is in the early stages so the likelihood of further tariffs is high,” Oxford Economics said in comments on Beijing’s latest retaliatory move. President Trump announced he would be imposing import tariffs on all Mexican and Canadian imports into the United States and adding a 10% levy on Chinese imports before he took office, justifying the move with trade deficits the U.S. was running with its biggest trade partners. Trump reduced the rate for Canadian crude oil to 10% and on Monday announced a 30-day delay to the tariffs on Mexico and Canada taking effect amid urgent negotiations with the heads of the two states as they sought to clinch a new trade deal with Washington. There was no mention of such negotiations with China, however, and the 10% additional tariffs went into effect today. The tariffs on LNG could see a change in flows of the superchilled fuel into China in a reversal of earlier plans to boost these imports, as forecast by Bloomberg Intelligence last month. At the time, the outlet predicted that Trump’s approach to fixing U.S. trade deficits with the country’s biggest trading partners would benefit LNG exporters to Asia, giving them a bigger share of that market. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, Chinese gas traders have committed to buying a total of 14 million tons from U.S. producers beginning in 2026. This is 50% more than China’s previous record of U.S. LNG purchases, set back in 2021. Now, these flows may be in jeopardy unless the tariff exchange stops.

China’s Tariffs Could Drag Down U.S. Crude Oil Exports -The 10% Chinese tariff on imports of U.S. crude oil could push American crude exports lower in 2025 from the record highs seen in the past two years, analysts tell Reuters.On the day on which the U.S. blanket tariff of 10% on all Chinese imports took effect, China responded with several measured retaliatory tariffs, including a 15% levy on LNG and 10% on crude oil imports from the United States.U.S. crude accounted for about 5% of China’s total crude oil imports in 2024, as Chinese refiners imported about 166,000 barrels per day (bpd) of American crude volumes, per vessel-tracking data from Kpler cited by Reuters.Expectations are that China will significantly reduce or halt altogether U.S. crude imports due to the tariff.This could contribute to a decline in overall international demand for U.S. oil, according to Kpler.U.S. crude exports hit a record of over 4 million bpd in 2023, and were essentially flat last year, trade flow tracking showed.Per Kpler’s estimates, American crude exports rose only marginally last year from the previous year, and were up by just 24,000 bpd to average 3.8 million bpd in 2024.U.S. crude oil exports could be peaking and “China's retaliatory tariffs could only further accelerate that,” Kpler analyst Matt Smith told Reuters.American seaborne exports averaged 3.9 million bpd in 2024, down from 4 million bpd in 2023, per datafrom Vortexa.“Americas crude exports started to stagnate during the second half of 2024 with the US, the largest exporter, showing signs of slowdown,” Rohit Rathod, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Vortexa, said last month.U.S. crude exports could slide to 3.6 million bpd this year, especially if the Trump Administration enacts the tariffs on Mexico and Canada – currently on pause until March 4 – and more of the U.S. medium sour grades, such as Mars and Southern Green Canyon, is kept for domestic refining, Vortexa’s Rathod told Reuters.

LNG Price Impacts from Chinese Tariffs ‘Limited’, but Long-Term Volatility Clouds U.S. Projects - LNG market experts are predicting limited price impacts in the short term from Chinese tariffs on U.S. volumes, but a longer trade war could give a boost to projects in other countries. Graph showing North America's operational and under construction LNG facilities showing peak export capacity. Days after U.S. tariffs on some Chinese products went into effect, triggering reciprocal action from China, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have reportedly been reticent to commit to trade talks. As Mexico and Canadian officials negotiate with the United States during a 30-day pause on the proposed 10-25% tariffs, duties on Chinese products went into effect early Tuesday. In response, China targeted U.S. LNG and coal imports with a 15% tariff beginning Monday (Feb. 10) and a 10% tariff on oil and heavy farm equipment that takes effect on Feb. 14.

Tariffs on Oil Are a Major Problem for U.S. Refiners -Tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will further weaken the position of U.S. refiners who are already facing headwinds due to declining refining margins, Energy Aspects director of research Amrita Sen told Bloomberg on Monday.On Saturday, the U.S. Administration announced that additional tariffs would be implemented on Canada, Mexico, and China this week. Canada and Mexico face 25% tariffs, with Canadian energy slapped with a lower, 10%, tariff.The 10% tariff on Canadian oil imports doesn’t break U.S. refining, but it will add to the costs of refiners in the Midwest and the West Coast, although a weakened Canadian dollar would absorb some of that tariff, Sen told Bloomberg.Canada could send more of its oil to Asia from its Pacific Coast after the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, while the U.S. has to pay up for alternatives, Sen said.The bigger problem for U.S. refiners would be the 25% tariff on imports from Mexico. Refiners in the U.S. Gulf Coast face much higher costs for 400,000 bpd of Mexican crude and another 200,000 bpd of fuel oil imports.Essentially, the tariffs “are a boon to Asian refiners,” Sen told Bloomberg.“It’s a win for a lot of the rest of the world, just a massive loss for US refining,” she added.It will be an unintended consequence “but that is absolutely how it’s going to play out,” Sen said.Commenting on the tariff announcement, American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) President and CEO Chet Thompson said, “We are hopeful a resolution can be quickly reached with our North American neighbors so that crude oil, refined products and petrochemicals are removed from the tariff schedule before consumers feel the impact.”“American refiners depend on crude oil from Canada and Mexico to produce the affordable, reliable fuels consumers count on every day,” Thompson added.American Petroleum Institute President and CEO Mike Sommers commented that API would continue to work with the Trump administration “on full exclusions that protect energy affordability for consumers, expand the nation’s energy advantage and support American jobs.”

Top US Refiner Is Ready to Switch to Domestic Crude on Tariffs - Marathon Petroleum, the largest US refiner and a major buyer of Canadian crude, sees ample opportunity to switch to domestic oil at its Midwest plants should President Donald Trump’s potential trade war with neighboring countries limit access to foreign supply. Domestic US oil from the Bakken formation, Rocky Mountains and the Marcellus and Utica shale basins were examples Hessling gave of alternatives ...

Why US Refiners Won’t Ditch Canadian Crude Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has announced that U.S. tariffs are on hold for one month after she held talks with President Trump and pledged to send 10,000 troops to the border to fight drug trafficking. Trump also spoke to Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau to discuss the punitive tariffs, saying that Ottawa has “misunderstood” the situation. Over the weekend, Trump slapped Canada and Mexico with duties of 25% and China with a 10% levy. Oil flows facing tariffs represent 44% of U.S. oil product imports, 69% of crude oil imports and 81% of heavy crude oil imports. Last week, Trump engaged in his usual isolationist bluster, claiming that the U.S. does not need Canadian commodities including oil and lumber. “We don’t need anything they have. We have unlimited Energy, should make our own Cars, and have more Lumber than we can ever use. Without this massive subsidy, Canada ceases to exist as a viable Country,” he said while speaking at the World Economic Forum. However, the experts have pointed out that Trump needs a reality check.“It’s not factually correct,” Richard Masson, an executive at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, told CTV News. “They do need our oil. We ship diluted bitumen, so four million barrels a day go to the states; more than two million barrels a day of that is diluted bitumen. It goes to refineries that are specifically configured to process it, especially in Minneapolis, Chicago and Wood River. That’s why they rely on it so heavily. So, the first part is hopefully we can talk to him and educate him if he doesn’t understand it. I’m sure that the big refiners in the U.S. are doing that now. But if it turns out that he’s going to put a tariff on it, then our challenge will be what happens to overall demand.”Similarly, commodity analysts at StandardChartered have painted a dire picture of the situation, saying oil buyers in the Midwest will almost certainly pay the price of the tariffs thanks to the limited substitutability of Canadian crude with other oils resulting in strong pass-through to retail prices.According to the analysts, the U.S. imported ~ 6.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude oil in the first 10 months of 2024, of which 4.0 mb/d was heavy oil for use in upgraded refineries with cracking units. Canada provided 75% of U.S. heavy crude oil imports in 2024, with its market share having steadily increased since 2000, squeezing outflows from Mexico, Venezuela and Colombia. Some 80% of Canada's crude production flows downstream to U.S. refiners, with U.S. imports of Canadian crude reaching a record high of 4.42M bbl/day in the week ending January 3, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Unfortunately for Midwest refineries, heavy oil cannot easily be substituted with the light oil that makes up most of U.S. shale oil production. StanChart has pointed out that such a switch would create a significant loss of optimization in the highly expensive cracking units that require feed from vacuum distillation of the heavy residual obtained by simple distillation. Canada has supplied 99.89% of all heavy imports into Midwest refineries over the past decade; the low substitutability of this flow implies that a tariff would largely feed through to local retail prices. Refiners will also have to cut runs due to the loss of refinery optimisation.

Trade Dispute Could Force U.S. to Buy Venezuelan Oil, Canada Says -- President Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian imports could leave the United States reliant on crude oil from Venezuela, with which the U.S. doesn’t want to work, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly told the Financial Times. Joly is visiting this week Washington, D.C. for her first official meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other U.S. government leaders. The Canadian foreign minister emphasized the negative impacts that U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods would have on both countries’ economies, workers, and businesses on both sides of the border. “Canadian energy and resources—including oil and critical minerals—underpin the long-term economic security and prosperity of both Canada and the United States to protect our energy security and reduce our reliance on the resources of non-like-minded countries,” Joly said ahead of her trip to Washington. “I’m travelling to Washington this week to emphasize that we are stronger when we work together, as partners and neighbours.”In an interview with FT, Joly said “We ship oil at a discount which is, ultimately, refined in Texas. If it’s not us, it is Venezuela.”Canada’s heavy crude is a staple with U.S. refineries in the Midwest and the Gulf Coast, which are configured to process the heavier crudes from Canada and Venezuela rather than the much lighter crudes from the U.S. shale patch.“There’s no other option on the table, and this administration doesn’t want to work with Venezuela,” Joly told FT.President Trump said on Thursday that the administration was considering a possible exemption for oil in the proposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Tariffs could be imposed as early as Saturday.Canada has reportedly drafted a list of U.S. goods worth about US$105 billion that it could tax with tariffs if President Trump moves to impose tariffs on imports from Canada.

Colombian President Cancels Oil Joint Venture With U.S. Company - Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, has canceled a joint venture between state energy company Ecopetrol and Occidental Petroleum on environmental concerns regarding hydraulic fracturing.Bloomberg reported that Petro had shared his concern on national TV, saying he was against a recent expansion of the deal between Ecopetrol and Oxy because it involved fracking, going counter to his energy policy efforts, which center on the transition away from hydrocarbons to alternative sources of energy.“I want that operation to be sold, and for the money to be invested in clean energies,” Petro said at a livestreamed cabinet meeting. “We are against fracking, because fracking is the death of nature, and the death of humanity.”The call to dismantle the joint venture comes barely a day after Ecopetrol announced the extension of the deal with Oxy, which is focused on the Permian Basin—the most prolific shale play in the United States, with hydraulic fracturing the standard practice in such unconventional oil and gas deposits.“With this investment plan in 2025 from Ecopetrol Permian, to develop assets in the Midland and Delaware sub-basins, we could be drilling about 91 development wells, with an investment that exceeds $880 million,” the chief executive of the Colombian state oil firm said in a statement on Tuesday, asquoted by Reuters.Ecopetrol produces some 95,200 barrels of crude daily in the Permian, based on 2024 figures, which accounts for 12% of its total oil production. However, President Petro is a staunch opponent of the oil and gas industry and an ardent proponent of the energy transition. Fracking is banned in Colombia.In September last year, the Colombian governmentannounced a plan to spend $40 billion on shifting away from oil and gas, and replacing revenues from the hydrocarbons industry with other sources of government income. The money would be spent on what the publication called “nature-based climate solutions”, along with low-carbon energy, transport electrification, agricultural practices improvement projects, and projects for biodiversity protection.

Economic Headwinds Could Limit LNG Imports from Natural Gas Demand Leaders China and India - China and India are expected to remain key LNG import markets this year as global demand growth continues to be driven by Asia, but lagging economic recovery could curb the countries’ intake. Bar chart showing estimates for global natural gas demand growth. Asia accounted for more than 40% of global incremental gas demand last year, primarily driven by China and India, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest quarterly gas report. IEA forecast year/year natural gas demand growth to drop below 2% in 2025. Asia is expected to account for more than half of the rise in global gas consumption this year. But China’s gas demand is expected to slow down in 2025, largely because of reduced demand for energy overall, said Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute.

China Targets U.S. LNG With Reciprocal Tariffs as Industry Warns of Project Impacts --President Trump slammed a 10% tariff on imports from China on Tuesday, triggering reciprocal actions against U.S. LNG exports that could cool long-term contracts from some of the world’s largest natural gas buyers. Chart showing U.S. LNG export facilities and the number of cargoes sent to China. While tariffs against Mexican and Canadian imports that rattled financial markets were given a last minute reprieve Monday, a tariff on Chinese products went into effect early Tuesday morning. In response, China targeted U.S. LNG and coal imports with a 15% tariff beginning Feb. 10 and a 10% tariff on oil and heavy farm equipment that takes effect on Feb. 14.

Trump’s Tariffs Send European Natural Gas Prices Higher — European natural gas prices continued to rally on Monday, reaching their highest level since October 2023 as the market weighed the impact of U.S. tariffs and President Trump’s threats to impose more against the European Union (EU). Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. Trump’s tariffs against Canada and China roiled equity markets and sent commodities seesawing. A 25% tariff on Canadian goods and a 10% tariff on Canadian energy products, along with a 10% tariff on imports from China, is set to take effect on Tuesday. Trump delayed a 25% tariff on Mexican goods by a month after speaking with Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum. Trump continues to raise the prospect of tariffs against the EU, citing a wide trade deficit. The EU has pledged to retaliate.

Russia's gas exports via TurkStream hit record high in January - Russia's natural gas exports via the TurkStream pipeline to Europe reached a record high of more than 50 million cubic meters (mcm) per day last month after transit through Ukraine was shut, according to the recent preliminary calculations conducted by Reuters. These calculations closely correlated to those of the Russian news agency Tass, which on Saturday reported that Russia increased gas exports to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline in January to a record high since its launch in 2020. It cited the total monthly volume of 1.56 billion cubic meters (bcm), calling on data from the European Network of Gas Transmission System Operators (ENTSOG). Türkiye has remained the only route for Russian gas to Europe after a five-year transit deal between Moscow and Kyiv was not extended when it expired on Jan. 1. The TurkStream gas pipeline, with a capacity of 31.5 billion cubic meters of gas, runs from Russia through the Black Sea to Türkiye and is designed to supply gas to Türkiye and the countries of southern and southeastern Europe. Based on data from European gas transmission group Entsog, calculations showed that Russian gas exports via the TurkStream jumped last month by 26.8% year-over-year, rising to 50.6 mcm per day from 39.9 mcm in January 2024, Reuters said on Friday. In total, Russian gas supplies to Europe via TurkStream have reached about 1.57 billion cubic metres in January, it said, up from 1.24 bcm in January last year and 1.54 bcm last December. Russia supplied about 63.8 bcm of gas to Europe by various routes in 2022, as shown by Gazprom data and Reuters calculations. That collapsed by 55.6% to 28.3 bcm in 2023 but increased to about 32 bcm in 2024. At their peak in 2018-2019, annual flows to Europe reached between 175 bcm and 180 bcm.

Russia Begins Large-Scale Inspection Of Tankers After Kerch Strait Oil Spill The Russian Ministry of Transport has started a large-scale inspection program for companies operating river-sea tanker fleets after the sinking of two tankers in the Kerch Strait in December 2024.The inspections were ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who directed the Ministry of Transport to assess whether tanker companies and individual owners are following regulations.The program will include the inspection of around 500 maritime and inland waterway transport firms that operate tanker vessels. The inspection is set to be completed by April 2025, before the start of the 2025 navigation season.The Ministry of Transport also confirmed that it would conduct a full audit of the regulatory framework governing the transportation of oil and petroleum products by sea and inland waterways.The inspection follows the tragic loss of two Russian oil tankers in the Kerch Strait on December 15, 2024. The tankers, the Volgoneft-212 and Volgoneft-239, were carrying a total of about 9,200 tonnes of fuel oil when they sank. mOfficial reports state that about 2,400 tonnes of fuel oil were spilt, though unconfirmed reports suggest it could have been as much as 4,300 tonnes. The spill stretched nearly 10 miles, reaching parts of the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, affecting coastlines and marine life.Reports indicate that over 700 seabirds and 61 dolphins were contaminated by the oil. Russian media quoted Viktor Basargin, the head of the Federal Service for Supervision of Transportation (Rostransnadzor), who confirmed that the inspections are already underway. He added that the inspection process would be completed by April, well before the 2025 navigation season begins. The Volgoneft class vessels involved in the incident are Soviet-era ships built in the 1960s and 1970s. These vessels were originally designed for operations on the Volga and Black Seas. Soviet naval architects used a mix of standard plate and higher-strength steel for construction. However, the vessels have a history of serious cracking issues, which led to an overhaul of the fleet in the 2010s. Despite these updates, the vessels are now over 50 years old and showing signs of wear and tear. The recent wrecks in the Kerch Strait have brought attention to the age and condition of these ships. While there have been several incidents with the vessels in the past, the December 2024 disaster is considered one of the worst environmental incidents in recent years. The Russian Ministry of Transport is also reviewing the regulatory framework governing the transportation of oil and petroleum products. The ministry aims to improve safety standards and prevent similar incidents from occurring in the future. Ukraine’s Ministry of Environmental Protection has criticised the vessels involved in the spill, calling them “unfit for their purpose.” The issue was discussed at a recent IMO sub-committee focused on pollution prevention and response, where allegations of negligence were also raised.

India's Russian Oil Imports Surge 13% In Jan Amid Sanctions - India’s crude oil imports from Russia rose 13 per cent in January, reaching 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd), despite fresh US sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers, according to data from commodity market analytics firm Kpler. In December 2024, Russia supplied 1.48 million bpd to India. Russia remains India’s largest crude supplier, accounting for over 30 per cent of total imports—a sharp increase from just 0.2 per cent before the Ukraine war in 2022. However, with the US imposing sanctions on January 10 targeting Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, and 180 oil tankers, Russian crude exports are expected to decline in the coming months. India’s oil secretary Pankaj Jain previously noted that Russian oil tankers must be discharged by February 27, and financial transactions completed by March 12, as per the US Office of Foreign Assets Control's guidelines. Given these restrictions, Indian refiners have struggled to secure new spot purchases from Russia, with Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) warning of a decline in Russian crude's share in its import basket. India’s state-run oil marketing companies (OMCs)—including IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL—source Russian crude via the spot market but have yet to secure a term deal with Russian suppliers. With uncertainty over Russian oil supplies, India increased imports from Saudi Arabia, the US, Kuwait, and Brazil in January. Saudi Arabia’s crude supply to India rose 12 per cent month-on-month to 723,000 bpd, while US oil imports surged 322 per cent to 279,000 bpd from 66,000 bpd in December. However, Iraq’s exports to India fell 8 per cent in January. India’s total oil imports rose by 6 per cent in January, reaching 4.98 million bpd, compared to 4.70 million bpd in December. The shift underscores India’s efforts to diversify crude sources amid growing supply uncertainties from Russia.

Singapore Reports 23-Tonne Oil Leak Near Sentosa - A diesel oil leak was detected in the southern waters of Singapore on Wednesday after a damaged shore fuel hose at the Police Coast Guard’s Brani Base spilled approximately 23 tonnes of oil.According to a joint statement from the Singapore Police Force, Maritime and Port Authority, and National Environment Agency, the leak started on 11.40 am (per Bloomberg time writing) was contained about four hours later.Cleanup operations, involving patrol craft and spill response teams, are underway, with authorities confirming that no oil slicks have been observed. Navigational traffic in the area remains unaffected. Despite the spill, Sentosa’s beaches remain open, with no oil sightings reported, according to the Sentosa Development Corporation.

Shell reports oil spill in Nigeria after saver pit overflows – (Reuters) - Shell reported an oil spill on Tuesday at Ogale, near Port Harcourt, after a saver pit overflowed during flushing operations in the Niger delta region. The oil major's Nigeria business said its spill response team contained the overflow and informed authorities. It added that arrangements were being made for a regulator-led joint visit to determine the cause and impact of the spill, a Shell spokesperson said in a statement. Decades of oil spills have blighted Nigeria's Niger River delta region, causing widespread environmental damage that has destroyed the livelihood of millions in the local communities and impacted their health. Youths and Environmental Advocacy Centre (YEAC-Nigeria) said the spill occurred after an underground pit filled with crude started flowing to a pipeline that separates an area of the Ogoni cleanup project.

Around 40km Of West Coast Beaches Have Been Polluted By An Oil Spill – An oil slick first spotted over a week ago has spread to pollute around 40 kilometres of West Coast beaches, now threatening the Oilfant’s River estuary — a vital biodiversity hotspot. Bird Island near Strandfontein is just 20km south of the affected area, putting SANCCOB (Southern African Foundation for the Conservation of Coastal Birds) on high alert. They’re especially worried about the 45,000 endangered Cape Gannets at Lamberts Bay. At least one Cape Gannet was found dead over the weekend. The exact source of the spill hasn’t been confirmed, but suspicion is on the wreck of the Panama-registered MV Ultra Galaxy, which ran aground south of Brand se Baai last July. The ship broke apart in a storm days later, spilling over 500 tons of oil and fertiliser into the ocean. Pollution is visible from just south of the wreck site. Locals say it doesn’t look like heavy crude oil but more like lighter hydrocarbons. Back when the ship went down, it was carrying around 332 tons of VLSFO (very low sulphur fuel oil), 180 tons of MGO (marine gas oil), and other hydraulic oils. The spokesperson for the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) Peter Mbelengwa told GroundUp on Sunday that the source of the spill was still being investigated and that samples had been collected for analysis. This incident triggered the emergency oil spill response company Spill Tech for clean up and monitoring at the sites where oil had been observed. “Protection measures for the Olifant’s River estuary are being considered with the possibility of booming the estuary if conditions allow.” Anti-pollution booms had been delivered to the estuary on Sunday. The Olifant’s River estuary is a key concern as it is one of just four permanently open estuaries on the West Coast and is ranked in the top five most important estuaries from a conservation perspective. Locals are saying that the authorities brushed off the first warnings about the pollution. Local diver Ronnie Coetzee shared in a widely-shared voice note how he and two other divers got “lekker sick” after diving in the area, with burning throats. He even spent three days trying to get oil out of his wetsuit. GroundUp notes that while an official was reportedly sent to take a water sample after this, Coetzee was never interviewed and no immediate anti-pollution measures were instituted. By Thursday afternoon, oil had started appearing on beaches to the south of the wreck, prompting clean-up teams to be deployed with full clean-up operations underway by Friday. West Coast environmental activist and conservationist Suzanne du Plessis, who chaired Olifant’s Estuary Management Forum for three years, was also someone who raised the initial alarm about the current slick. “This is a big slick, it’s huge, and it’s coming from way up north as far as the eye can see. If it gets into the estuary, it will be a disaster. For the beaches, there’s not much anyone can do except clean them, but the estuary can be protected and I think that should be a priority.” SANCCOB reported that no live oiled birds had been seen yet, but described the situation as “developing” and said it was waiting for further information and was ready to deploy teams if necessary.

Iraq’s oil exports to US surge by 118,000 bpd in a week - Iraq's oil exports to the United States rose by 118,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous week, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced on Sunday. According to the EIA data, US crude oil imports from top 9 countries averaged 5.981 million bpd last week, down by 92,000 barrels from the previous week's 6.073 million bpd. "Iraq's oil exports to the US reached 336,000 bpd, up by 118,000 bpd from the previous week's 218,000 bpd," it confirmed. The US's highest oil revenue last week came from Canada, averaging 3.716 million bpd, followed by Mexico at 521,000 barrels, Saudi Arabia at 417,000 barrels, and Venezuela at 319,000 barrels. The US also imported 283,000 bpd from Colombia, 114,000 from Brazil, 102,000 from Ecuador, and 92,000 from Nigeria.

OPEC’s Oil Production Continued to Decline in January - OPEC’s oil production declined in January for a second consecutive month amid lower output from Iran and Nigeria, according to the monthly Reuters survey published on Wednesday. Last month, all 12 OPEC producers saw their combined output drop by 50,000 barrels per day (bpd) from December to 26.53 million, according to the Reuters survey of data from oil-flow tracking companies and sources at OPEC, oil firms, and consultants.Supply from Iran and Nigeria dropped by 60,000 bpd each, the most among OPEC producers, according to the survey.Iran, exempted from the ongoing OPEC+ cuts, reduced output by 60,000 bpd, and analysts expect further losses ahead as U.S. President Donald Trump restored the "maximum pressure” campaign on the Islamic Republic with the aim to drive its oil exports to zero. Nigerian production also fell by 60,000 bpd as the West African producer reduced exports.OPEC’s top producer Saudi Arabia saw its output slightly drop in January from December, the Reuters survey found. So did Iraq, the second-largest producer in the cartel.Iraq, however, has a lot of compensating to do over the next year, after having pumped above its quota in the OPEC+ agreement so far.The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), the OPEC+ panel monitoring the oil markets,praised this week Iraq for its improved compliance with the cuts.The JMMC meeting on Monday was a routine affair in which the panel did not recommend any changes to the current OPEC+ plan to begin gradually unwinding the cuts in April 2025.The JMMC doesn’t take decisions on production levels—these are taken by the OPEC+ ministerial meetings. At the previous OPEC+ ministerial gathering in December, the alliance decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025. The group also extended the period in which it would unwind all these cuts into the following year, until September 2026.

OPEC+ Won't Change Oil Production Plans -Despite pressure from President Trump and a recent rise in oil prices, the OPEC+ group has said it won't change its current plan to begin gradually unwinding the cuts from April.The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), the OPEC+ panel reviewing policy and markets and potentially recommending actions to the group’s ministers to take, made its decision during its Monday meeting.No changes had been expected after anonymous delegates to Reuters ahead of the JMMC meeting.The JMMC, the panel that takes stock of oil market developments and proposes courses of action to the ministers of the OPEC+ group, doesn’t take decisions on production levels—these are taken by the OPEC+ ministerial meetings.At the previous ministerial gathering in December, the alliance decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025. The group also extended the period in which it would unwind all these cuts into the following year, until September 2026.OPEC+ reiterated the importance of compliance with the cuts and the timely compensation for those producers who haven’t adhered to their assigned quotas.Ahead of the JMMC meeting on Monday, the oil market saw several turbulent weeks in which oil prices jumped after the previous U.S. Administration slapped aggressive sanctions on Russian oil trade. Prices fell two weeks later after the new administration, President Trump specifically, called on OPEC to lower the price of oil.“I’m also going to ask Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil,” President Trump said in an address to the World Economic Forum, four days into his second term in office.On Monday, global financial markets sunk while oil prices rose after President Trump announced 25% tariffs on all imports from Mexico and Canada, except for Canadian energy, for which the levy would be 10%. China will also be taxed with an additional 10% on all its exports to the U.S.

OPEC+ Challenges Trump, Maintains Production Cuts | Egypt Oil & Gas - OPEC+ agreed to maintain their policy on production cuts and gradually raise output as planned starting in April, despite President Trump’s calls for lower prices. Trump laid out his energy policy agenda in his address to the World Economic Forum, urging OPEC to lower oil prices, saying elevated prices have helped Russia continue the war in Ukraine. Concerns over US sanctions on Russia had pushed oil prices to $83 a barrel in mid-January, the highest since August 2024, before falling back below $77 later. However, they have risen again as concerns over supply disruptions have mounted. OPEC+ delegates have pointed out that their current plan is already in place to address market needs. Notably, OPEC+, including Russia, are cutting production by up to 5.85 million barrels per day (bbl/d), or about 5.7% of their global imports, under a series of measures agreed since 2022. In October 2022, OPEC+ agreed to cut oil production by 2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) to support oil prices amid fears of a global economic recession. It made several adjustments to its production targets during 2022, including increasing monthly global oil supply hikes and later bringing some production back online In April 2023, OPEC+ agreed to extend their voluntary oil production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bbl/d) until the end of November 2024. However, as market conditions evolved and the need for further stabilization became evident, OPEC+ decided to implement additional cuts, raising the total to 3.66 mmbbl/d starting in April 2025 and continuing until September 2026.

Global oil prices surge on Monday as Trump’s tariffs spark supply fears - Global oil prices jumped up on Monday following the imposition of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canada, Mexico, and China, as the move sparked concerns over potential disruptions in crude supply from the two U.S. neighbours who are its largest oil suppliers. Reuters reported that by 0656 GMT, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose by $1.36, or 1.88%, to $73.89 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by 73 cents, or 0.96%, to $76.40 per barrel. On Saturday, President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, escalating trade tensions that could hinder global economic growth and fuel inflation. The tariffs include 10% on Canadian energy products and a full 25% tariff on Mexican energy exports to the U.S. U.S. oil refiners anticipate a hike in the price of crude oil from these two countries which contribute one-quarter of crude processed by US refineries, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Industry experts warn that the tariffs will increase costs for heavier crude grades essential for optimal refinery production, potentially reducing profitability and forcing production cuts. Meanwhile, there are concerns that demand may drop which may either cause a reduction in global oil prices or force oil producers to cut production. Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee told Reuters that oil prices might decline in the longer term as tariffs weaken demand and pressure OPEC+ to reverse production cuts. Although OPEC+ is unlikely to succumb to Trump’s pressure to cut production. Delegates of the cartel hint that the group is unlikely to deviate from its current plan to gradually increase output during its meeting on Monday. What does this mean for Nigeria Nigerians are subjected to the volatility of the international oil market due to inadequate domestic supply of crude and continued reliance on imports. Nairametrics reported that the Naira-to-Crude initiative of the Federal Government, which is supposed to make crude oil available to local refiners in Naira, is marred by inconsistent implementation. Retail prices of petroleum products have gone up and down in recent weeks, with the latest development being a reduction in ex-depot price by the mega Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals. Marketers say they still have petrol purchased at the higher price in stock, hence the price reduction by the Dangote refinery will not reflect in pump prices immediately. Any surge in global oil prices will be felt by Nigerians, as the volatility in the global market persists.

Oil prices close at 1-month low as US pauses tariffs on Mexico (Reuters) - Oil prices edged up in volatile trade on Monday but closed at a one-month low on the expiration of a higher-priced contract, as the market digested U.S. President Donald Trump's planned imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China.Concerns over imports from two of the main crude suppliers to the U.S. boosted prices by over $1 a barrel earlier in the session before Trump paused the new tariffs on Mexico for one month as Mexico agreed to reinforce its northern border to stem the flow of illegal drugs, particularly fentanyl. Brent futures for April delivery rose 29 cents, or 0.4%, from where that contract closed on Friday to settle at $75.96 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 63 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $73.16.That was the lowest close for Brent since Jan. 2 now that the lower-priced April contract is the front-month after the expiration of the higher-priced March future on Friday.Trump's sweeping tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China on Tuesday had threatened to kick off a trade war that could dent global growth and reignite inflation.The proposed tariffs included a 25% levy on most goods from Mexico and Canada, with a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports."Tariffs on Canadian energy imports would likely be more disruptive for domestic energy markets than those on Mexican imports and might even be counterproductive to one of the president's key objectives - lowering energy costs," Barclays analyst Amarpreet Singh said in a note. Canada and Mexico together account for about a quarter of the oil U.S. refiners process into fuels such as gasoline and heating oil, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. Bar chart showing U.S. imports of crude oil by countryU.S. manufacturing grew for the first time in more than two years in January, but recovery was likely to be short-lived due to Trump's tariffs, which will potentially further raise raw material prices and snarl supply chains. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said the type of tariffs announced by the Trump administration may drive up inflation, while noting there's a lot of uncertainty and no urgency on the part of the U.S. central bank to change the direction of monetary policy. Higher inflation could prompt the Fed to raise interest rates to combat rising prices. That could reduce demand for energy by boosting borrowing costs and slowing economic growth.Tariffs will raise costs for the heavier crude grades that U.S. refineries need for optimum production, industry sources said.Gasoline pump prices in the U.S. are certainly expected to rise with the loss of crude for refineries and the loss of imported products, said Mukesh Sahdev at Rystad Energy.Trump has already warned that the tariffs could cause "short-term" pain for Americans. U.S. gasoline futures climbed up about 3% to a two-week high, helping to boost the 3:2:1- crack spread, which measures refining profit margins, to its highest since August 2024. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies like Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, agreed to stick to its policy of gradually raising oil output from April and removed the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration from the sources used to monitor its production and adherence to supply pacts.

Oil, gasoline futures rise after Trump slaps tariffs on Canadian crude - Oil futures finished Monday with a gain after President Trump slapped tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China over the weekend, sparking worries over U.S. crude imports. Upside was limited, however, by concerns that a trade war would dent demand. At a regularly scheduled meeting on Monday, ministers from members of OPEC+ - made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies - left its existing oil production plans unchanged, even as Trump last month called on the group to lower oil prices.

• - West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery rose 63 cents, or 0.9%, to settle at $73.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $75.18.
• -- April Brent crude, the global benchmark, tacked on 29 cents, or 0.4%, to $75.96 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
• -- Back on Nymex, March gasoline RBH25 climbed 2.9% to $2.12 a gallon, while March heating oil HOH25 gained 2.7% to $2.46 a gallon.
• -- March natural gas NGH25 surged 10.1% to $3.35 per million British thermal units, after posting a gain of nearly 12% last week.

Oil futures finished higher, but below the session's intraday highs above $75 a barrel for WTI. Trump on Saturday announced tariffs, including levies of 25% on imports from Canada and Mexico, 10% on energy products from Canada and an additional 10% tariff on China. Then on Monday, Trump said tariffs against Mexico would be delayed by a month after "friendly" talks with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. "The fact that Canadian energy will have a 10% tariff - rather than 25% on everything else from Canada - will moderate the resulting increase in U.S. fuel prices," Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, told MarketWatch. 'The rule of thumb is that it takes three to four weeks between an oil price movement and a corresponding change in prices at the pump.'Pavel Molchanov, Raymond James "But let's be clear, drivers will still notice it at the pump," he added. "The rule of thumb is that it takes three to four weeks between an oil price movement and a corresponding change in prices at the pump. That means drivers should notice it toward the end of February" - though the magnitude of the price increase will be "very different as we look around the country." Read: Here's how much gas could cost you if Trump's threatened tariffs go through Many U.S. refiners are heavily dependent on the heavy crudes produced by Canada and Mexico. The U.S. imported 4.42 million barrels of oil per day from Canada in 2023, representing 52% of total U.S. oil imports, according to the Energy Information Administration. Mexico comes in at a distant second, representing 11% of U.S. oil imports at 910,000 barrels per day. Read: Here's how long it may take for oil's gains to show up in gas prices at the pump "In theory, tariffs mean higher feedstock prices for U.S. refiners (which will ultimately be passed on to consumers)," Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodity strategists at ING, said in a note. They argued that the full cost of the tariff is unlikely to be picked up by U.S. refiners and consumers, however. In 2023, 97% of Canadian oil exports went to the U.S. Given that Canada has very few alternatives for where to export its crude oil, the price of West Canada Select will fall, and its differential to WTI widen, they wrote. At the same time, a global trade war is seen damping demand for crude. The tariffs "could be negative for oil prices if this has a negative economic impact," said Matt Polyak, managing partner at Hummingbird Capital. "Despite relative statistical inelasticity to GDP, historically one rule of thumb can be that every 1% of GDP growth or decline can impact U.S. demand growth" for crude oil by plus or minus 0.5%, he said. Meanwhile, OPEC+ ministers who met via videoconference Monday reaffirmed their current oil production plans, which include a gradual phaseout of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels starting April 1. The unwinding of those cuts had initially been set to take effect in the final quarter of last year, but were repeatedly delayed amid price weakness. Trump last month had called on OPEC to boost oil production. There was some speculation that OPEC+ would end the voluntary cuts to please Trump, but that overlooked the fact that the group of oil producers has ignored such requests by Trump in the past, said Anas Alhajji, an independent energy expert and managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors. "OPEC+ is likely to start unwinding the voluntary cuts on April 1 if two conditions are met" - low inventories and increasing global oil demand, he told MarketWatch. In other energy news, prices for natural gas extended their rally from last week, when the EIA's storage report Thursday indicated a large withdrawal of 321 billion cubic feet - causing U.S. gas storage levels to fall into a deficit compared to the five-year average for the first time since January 2023, noted Seth Harper, commodity analyst at Schneider Electric, in Monday report. However, "warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in the first weeks of February may relax balances and help storage levels return to a surplus," he said.

Crude prices fall on US-China trade clash - Markets - Crude prices fell on Tuesday as U.S. tariffs on China took effect and Beijing retaliated with its own measures, heightening trade war fears, while U.S. President Trump delayed steep levies on Canada and Mexico for a month. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down $2.03, or 2.77%, at $71.13 a barrel by 1400 GMT while Brent futures lost $1.41, or 1.86%, to $74.55. China’s Finance Ministry said it would impose levies of 15% on U.S. coal and LNG, as well as 10% on crude oil, farm equipment and the small number of trucks as well as big-engine sedans shipped to China from the United States. Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may dampen demand for oil, leading to continued pressure on prices. “The tit-for-tat measures out from China may not stop at just the 10% tariffs on crude oil from the U.S., which can also see a deliberate attempt to weaken the yuan if the U.S. fires back with more tariffs on China exports to the U.S.,” “Overall such actions are likely to give rise to a stronger U.S. dollar that in turn weakens … oil prices given that OPEC+ members are still on track to increase oil supply gradually from April.” China’s 2024 crude oil imports from the United States accounted for 1.7% of its total crude imports, customs data shows. China’s counter-tariffs could be perceived as a sign of escalation and reduce the likelihood of a temporary resolution akin to U.S. agreements with Mexico and Canada, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum earlier said they had agreed to bolster border enforcement efforts in response to Trump’s demand to crack down on immigration and drug smuggling. That would pause for 30 days U.S. tariffs of 25% on the two countries as well as a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada, all of which had been set to take effect on Tuesday. The OPEC+ group of oil producers agreed on Monday to stick to its policy of raising oil output gradually from April. On the demand side, investors are awaiting U.S. oil stockpile data for the week to Jan. 31. Analysts polled by Reuters expect crude inventories to have risen but gasoline and distillate inventories are likely to have declined.

The Oil Market Sold Off as the U.S. Tariffs on China Took Effect - The oil market on Tuesday sold off sharply and ended the session lower as the U.S. tariffs on China took effect and China imposed retaliatory levies of its own, increasing fears of a trade war. The market was pressured as the trade tensions between the U.S. and China may lower demand for oil. China imposed levies of 15% on U.S. coal and LNG and 10% on crude oil after President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China went into effect early Tuesday morning. This followed a pause for 30 days of the 25% tariffs the U.S. was set to impose on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on energy imports from Canada starting on Tuesday. The crude market breached Monday’s low of $72.05 and sold off more than 3.4% as it posted a low of $70.67 by mid-morning. The market later retraced more than 50% of its move from Monday’s high of $75.18 to its low of $70.67 after an official said that U.S. President Donald Trump plans to restore his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, including sanctions and enforcement mechanisms on those violating existing sanctions. The oil market later settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The March WTI contract settled down 46 cents at $72.70 while the April Brent contract settled up 24 cents at $76.20. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 3.33 cents at $2.4298 and the RB market settling down 1.87 cents at $2.0990. On Tuesday, China imposed retaliatory import duties of 15% on U.S. LNG and coal and 10% on crude oil as well as on farm equipment and some autos starting February 10^th. China’s move came after the Trump administration imposed an additional 10% tariff on all imports of Chinese goods into the United States. China’s reaction raises the risk of further moves by the United States, and increases the trade tension between the world’s two largest economies. The risk is that a series of tit-for-tat measures causes global economic growth to slow and inflation to rise as countries have to re-order supply chains and deal with increased disruptions to industries such as manufacturing and construction. However, the immediate impact of China’s measures on imports of U.S. crude, LNG and coal is likely to be limited. According to commodity analysts Kpler, China imported 5.99 million barrels of crude from the United States in January. This is equivalent to about 193,000 barrels per day, which is less than 2% of China’s total imports. China’s LNG imports from the United States have also been modest in recent months, with January coming in at 190,000 metric tons, down from 220,000 tons in December. China’s total LNG imports have been averaging around 6.5 million tons a month recently, meaning the U.S. is supplying in a range between 4% and 12% of the total. According to Kpler, China’s imports of coal from the United States were 1.34 million tons in January. Official customs data showed China’s total coal imports averaged 45.2 million tons per month in 2024, making the U.S. little more than a fringe supplier.A U.S. official said U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign a presidential memorandum on Tuesday that restores his “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran and aims to deny Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.33 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 7^th, cutting available refining capacity by 5,000 bpd.Jim Teague, the CEO of Enterprise Products Partners, said Enterprise has not received enough customer interest to commercialize its Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) crude export project. The CEO blamed regulatory delays and Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which rerouted oil flows, for the lack of interest in the project, adding that the company will continue to promote SPOT.

Oil mixed as Trump restores pressure on Iran, tariff drama caps prices (Reuters) - Oil prices diverged at settlement on Tuesday amid tariff drama between Washington and Beijing, and after U.S. President Donald Trump restored his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, in a bid to drive Iranian oil exports to zero, per a U.S. official. Trump signed the presidential memorandum ahead of his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ordering the U.S. Treasury secretary to impose "maximum economic pressure" on Iran, including sanctions and enforcement mechanisms. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 46 cents, or 0.63%, at $72.70 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent crude futures settled up 24 cents, or 0.32%, to $76.20. Oil came under pressure early as new 10% U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports took effect on Tuesday, spurring retaliatory tariffs by Beijing. At its session low, U.S. crude was down more than 3%, the lowest since late December. Trump had driven Iran's oil exports to near zero during his first term after reimposing sanctions. They rose under former President Joe Biden's tenure as Iran succeeded in evading sanctions. Iran, the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, extracts about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, or around 3% of global output. "The reason why oil was down near the lower end of the trading range was the China retaliation, and it went back up because of the 'maximum pressure' on Iran," Traders had been eyeing efforts to schedule a call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, but the U.S. president said on Tuesday he was in no hurry to speak to his Chinese counterpart. Trump said "that’s fine" when asked about China's decision to issue retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. Earlier, Trump trade adviser Peter Navarro had said the two leaders would speak, suggesting to investors there was scope for China to receive a temporary reprieve like Trump granted to Mexico and Canada on Monday. "Oil was down on the China retaliation, I think it's the expected Trump-Xi call that brought us back up, and we kind of know how those go now, in terms of walking this all back," On Monday, Trump suspended his threat of steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada, agreeing to a 30-day pause in return for concessions on border and crime enforcement. Ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China may dampen demand for oil, further pressuring prices. "The tit-for-tat measures out from China may not stop at just the 10% tariffs on crude oil from the U.S., which can also see a deliberate attempt to weaken the yuan if the U.S. fires back with more tariffs on China exports to the U.S.," "Overall such actions are likely to give rise to a stronger U.S. dollar that in turn weakens ... oil prices, given that OPEC+ members are still on track to increase oil supply gradually from April." China's 2024 crude oil imports from the U.S. accounted for 1.7% of its total crude imports, customs data shows. "The Chinese are smart targeting crude oil and liquefied natural gas, because that's effectively going to knock them out of the U.S. market as you're adding $5-$7 a barrel, depending on pricing and that's just not competitive," Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil and gasoline stocks rose last week while distillate inventories fell, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. .

Oil prices slide; China tariffs, Iran tensions in focus - Oil prices traded slightly lower during Asian trade on Wednesday as investors monitored the impact of China’s tariffs on United States energy imports, while renewed pressure from President Donald Trump to eliminate Iranian crude exports offered some support. By 2:45 pm AEDT (3:45 am GMT), Brent crude futures eased $0.33, or 0.4%, to US$75.87 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped $0.26 or 0.4%, to $72.08.Oil prices fluctuated on Tuesday, with WTI briefly dropping 3% to its lowest level since 31 December after China announced retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports of oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal in response to Washington’s levies on Chinese exports.However, prices rebounded after Trump reinstated the “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, aiming to curb its nuclear program and cut its crude exports to zero, as he did during his first term.According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, the effect of China’s tariffs on energy prices is expected to be minimal, as global supply and demand remain unchanged.Further pressure on oil prices came from rising crude and fuel stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s largest oil consumer. According to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures, U.S. crude inventories rose by 5.03 million barrels in the week ending January 31, greater than the 3.17 million barrels expected. Investors now await official U.S. government oil inventory data, set for release later on Wednesday, which could provide further insights into market direction.

WTI Extends Losses After Biggest Crude Inventory Build In A Year - Oil prices are leaking lower this morning after surging yesterday on Trump's "maximum pressure" plan for Iran as traders weigh the effect of a US-China trade war on demand.“Trump tariff chaos and trade war is no good for global growth and oil demand growth,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. “But supply disruptions, as so often before, can then rapidly and suddenly turn everything around.”API reported yuuge builds for Crude and gasoline overnight but a large draw for Distillates (cold weather?)...API

• Crude +5.025mm
• Cushing +110k
• Gasoline +5.4mm
• Distillates -7.00mm

DOE

• Crude +8.64mm - biggest build since Feb 2024
• Cushing -34k
• Gasoline +2.23m - 12th straight weekly build
• Distillates -5.47mm - biggest draw since March 2021

Some massive swings in the inventory data last week with a huge crude build and large distillates draw... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Including the 250k addition the SPR, last week saw the biggest crude inventory build since Feb 2024 US Crude production rebounded from the cold-weather impacts...

Oil down as US crude inventories swell, traders worry about China-US trade (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than 2% on Wednesday as a large build in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles signaled weaker demand, while worries about a new China-U.S. trade war fueled fears of softer economic growth. Brent crude futures settled down $1.59, or 2.09%, to $74.61 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.67, or 2.3%, to $71.03. U.S. crude oil inventories rose sharply last week, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, as refiners facing soft gasoline demand did maintenance work. "Refiners just don't have a call for crude right now," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital in New York. "They're racing into maintenance, given the slack demand we're seeing for gasoline," he added. Concern over a new trade war between the U.S. and China, the world's largest energy importer, also pressured prices. On Tuesday, China announced tariffs on imports of U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas and coal in retaliation for U.S. levies on Chinese exports, pushing WTI down 3% at its session low, the lowest since Dec. 31. "China putting a tariff on U.S. imports reduces the demand for those commodities, which need to be redirected into another market," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. On Wednesday, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian urged OPEC members to unite against possible U.S. sanctions, after Trump said he would restore the "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran that he enacted in his first term. Trump drove Iran's oil exports to near zero during part of his first term after reimposing sanctions to curtail the country's nuclear program. "Should these sanctions be reimposed, the resulting supply squeeze could sustain the upward momentum in oil prices, particularly amid slower than expected supply adjustments from OPEC+ producers," said Ahmad Assiri, research strategist at brokerage Pepperstone. Tehran's oil exports brought in $53 billion in 2023 and $54 billion a year earlier, according to EIA estimates. Output during 2024 was running at its highest level since 2018, based on OPEC data. "The oil market is now caught between increasing fears that an escalating trade war will damage global oil demand growth on the one hand and possible sudden disruption of Iranian oil exports,"

Oil Prices Rise as Trump's Policies Continue to Impact Markets --Oil prices edged higher in Asian trading on Thursday after Saudi Arabia’s state oil company sharply increased crude prices for March. However, the rise was minimal compared to the biggest drop in Brent crude prices in nearly three months recorded the previous day. Brent crude futures rose by 8 cents to $74.69 per barrel as of 04:22 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 15 cents to reach $71.18 per barrel. Oil prices had fallen more than 2% on Wednesday, as a significant rise in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories signaled weak demand. Investors also weighed the impact of a new round of U.S.-China tariffs, which included levies on energy products. Prices have dropped nearly 10% from their highest levels of 2025, recorded on January 15—just five days before Donald Trump took office as President of the United States. Analysts expect market volatility in the coming weeks. “We can expect significant price fluctuations in the weeks and months ahead as markets assess the impact of Trump's new policy stances, particularly regarding tariff measures,” analysts from BMI wrote in a note on Thursday. The sharp price hike for Asian buyers by Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, helped limit Wednesday’s sell-off. "Following the overnight sell-off and the Saudi price hike, we are likely to see some buying from traders covering short positions before reaching strong support levels between $70 and $68," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. Last month, the U.S. imposed new stringent sanctions on Russian oil trade, targeting so-called “shadow ships” believed to be used to circumvent trade restrictions. Since taking office, Trump has imposed tariffs on China, although they have been less severe than his campaign threats. In response, Beijing announced on Tuesday new tariffs on U.S. oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and coal imports. However, China’s purchases from the U.S. remain relatively modest, limiting the impact of these measures. “While some tariff measures may put upward pressure on oil prices, the net effect is likely to be bearish, given their potential negative impact on the global economy and Trump’s apparent willingness to grant energy exemptions to limit supply disruptions,” BMI noted.

US slaps sanctions on network shipping Iranian oil to China (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Thursday it is imposing new sanctions on a few individuals and tankers helping to ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China, in an incremental move to boost pressure on Tehran. They were the first U.S. sanctions on Iran's oil after U.S. President Donald Trump this week vowed to bring Iran's crude exports to zero as the U.S. tries to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon. The Treasury said the oil was shipped on behalf of Iran's Armed Forces General Staff and its front company Sepehr Energy, which the U.S. designated in late 2023. The sanctions target individuals and companies in countries including China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, the department said. Treasury said it imposed blocking sanctions on the Panama-flagged CH Billion tanker and the Hong Kong-flagged Star Forest tanker for their role in shipping Iranian oil to China. The U.S. said the tankers "onboarded" Iranian crude from storage in China as part of a scheme involving Iran's military, which stands to profit from the sale of the oil. The sanctions block access of the individuals and entities to any of their assets in the United States and prohibit U.S. foreign assistance. "We will use all tools at our disposal to hold the regime accountable for its destabilizing activities and pursuit of nuclear weapons that threaten the civilized world," Tammy Bruce, a State Department spokesperson, said about the sanctions. Iran's mission to the United Nations in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian this week urged OPEC members to unite against possible U.S. sanctions. Jeremy Paner, a sanctions lawyer, said the move was a "tactic, not a strategy" in Trump's desire to greatly reduce oil exports since it did not go after banks in China that allow energy transactions. Paner, a partner at Hughes Hubbard, said it was similar to a series of sanctions imposed over the last two years by former President Joe Biden. The sanctions designated Iranian national Arash Lavian, who the U.S. said helped support Sepehr. The U.S. also designated Marshal Ship Management Private Limited. In addition, Young Folks International Trading Co and Limited and Lucky Ocean Shipping Limited were designated for operating in Iran’s petroleum sector. "These kinds of sanctions can be effective, but it's not going to drive the exports down to zero," said Paner, a former lead sanctions investigator at Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control. Fernando Ferreira, the head of geopolitical risk at Rapidan Energy Group, said the sanctions were "an opening shot against China and Iran, designed to put Beijing on notice without disrupting backchannel discussions to explore the potential for a nuclear deal."

The Market Continues to Weigh New Policy Positions -- The crude oil market continued to trend lower on Thursday after posting an inside trading day on Wednesday. The market continued to weigh the impact of President Donald Trump’s new policy positions, including the trade tariffs, his vow to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero and his pledge to increase U.S. oil output. After trading mostly sideways in overnight trading on news that Saudi Aramco raised its prices for crude buyers in Asia, the market briefly breached a previous low of $70.67 posted on Tuesday. It traded to $70.66 before it quickly retraced its losses and rallied to a high of $71.85. The market traded higher amid the news that the Treasury Department imposed sanctions targeting shadow networks responsible for moving Iranian oil to China. However, the market erased its early gains and sold off to a low of $70.43 in afternoon trading after President Donald Trump reiterated a pledge to increase U.S. oil production. The March WTI contract settled down 42 cents at $70.61 and the April Brent contract settled down 32 cents at $74.29. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session in positive territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.38 cents at $2.3980 and the RB market settling up 24 points at $2.0747. China’s retaliatory tariffs on the United States may cause U.S. oil exports to decline in 2025 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, after growth plateaued last year. According to ship-tracking data from Kpler, China’s demand for U.S. oil has declined in recent years due to discounted Russian and Iranian oil, with exports to China totaling about 166,000 bpd in 2024, accounting for nearly 5% of all U.S. crude exports. Meanwhile, U.S. crude export growth stalled in 2024, increasing just 0.6% or 24,000 bpd in 2024 to average 3.8 million bpd, as U.S. companies limited shale production amid worries about global demand. Matt Smith, an analyst at Kpler, said international demand for American crude exports may be peaking “and China’s retaliatory tariffs could only further accelerate that.” For China, the impact is likely muted as U.S. imports accounted for 1.7% of the country’s total crude imports in 2024, worth about $6 billion, and down from 2.5% in 2023, according to Chinese customs data. China increased imports from Canada by about 30% last year to over 500,000 bpd, following the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline.Trade sources said oil and gas traders are likely to seek waivers from China over tariffs that the Chinese government plans to impose on U.S. crude and liquefied natural gas imports starting February 10^th. Data from analytics firms Kpler and LSEG showed that four tankers, carrying 6 million barrels of U.S. WTI and Alaskan North Slope (ANS) crude, and two LNG vessels are currently en route to China. Companies are expected to apply for waivers for tankers that have already been booked.The U.S. Treasury said it is imposing new sanctions on individuals and tankers helping to ship millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil per year to China. The move comes after U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this week vowed to bring Iran’s oil exports to zero as the U.S. tries to prevent the country from obtaining a nuclear weapon.According to Kpler data, EU and UK gasoline exports reached 895,000 bpd in January, down from 942,000 bpd in December.

Oil falls in choppy trade after Trump repeats pledge to lower prices -Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump repeated a pledge to raise U.S. oil production, unnerving traders a day after the country reported a much bigger-than-anticipated jump in crude stockpiles. Brent crude futures fell 32 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $74.29 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 42 cents, or 0.6%, to $70.61. Trump on Thursday repeated a pledge to boost U.S. oil production in order to lower commodity prices, saying the country will produce more oil than anyone has ever seen before. Oil prices have tumbled by about 10% since January 15, five days before Donald Trump took over as U.S. President, with the marketed buffeted by rapidly changing tariff measures from the U.S. against its major trading partners. Prices had briefly recovered on Thursday after the U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on individuals and entities in multiple jurisdictions for facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil to China. The move came after Trump earlier this week vowed to bring Iran's oil exports to zero, part of U.S. efforts to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. "The notice is out - if you're a refiner or shipper moving Iranian oil, any part of it, you're at risk of getting whacked by the Treasury," said Price Futures Group analyst Phil Flynn. "Dealing with Iranian oil will be like Superman dealing with Kryptonite," he said. In Cyprus, the 'frying pan movement' is turning household waste into a sustainability lesson.00:0401:55 Oil prices were also supported by a decision by Saudi Arabia's state oil company Saudi Aramco to raise its March crude prices sharply for buyers in Asia. Prices of oil had plunged by more than 2% on Wednesday as a large build in U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles signalled weaker demand, while investors also weighed up the implications of a new round of U.S.-China trade tariffs, including duties on energy products.

Oil trades above 5wk lows amid fresh Iran sanctions --Oil prices rose slightly in Asian trading on Friday but remained on course for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by renewed trade tensions between the United States and China. By 3:35 pm AEDT (4:35 am GMT), Brent crude futures were up $0.26 or 0.4% to US$74.55, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April rose $0.22 or 0.3% to $70.59 per barrel.The U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on Thursday on a network of over a dozen individuals and firms accused of facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian oil to China.The sanctions target entities and individuals in China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as several vessels.Meanwhile, ANZ analysts said in a note to clients: “There are also signs emerging that US sanctions on Russia are taking effect. Russia’s flagship crude oil dropped below a price cap of USD60/bbl for the first time since December. Sellers of Ural, the nation’s key export grade are having to swallow discounts of as much as USD16/bbl, according to data from Argus Media. At the same time, the spread between export prices at Russian ports and import prices at Asian destinations have ballooned. Tighter sanctions are likely to have an immediate impact on the physical market.” Over the weekend, Trump announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports as part of a broader strategy to address the U.S. trade deficit. However, he held off on imposing similar levies on Mexico and Canada.

Oil Futures Rose Following Sanctions on Iranian Oil Trade - Oil futures rose Friday morning following new sanctions the U.S. Department of Treasury imposed on Iranian oil trade, amid some optimism about the outcome of the trade tariff war between the U.S. and China. "Most of the tariff shock from last weekend has been absorbed, and markets are also probably reconsidering the optimism on a US-China deal. Beijing's retaliatory tariffs are due to come into effect on Monday, and the chances of a de-escalation before then have decreased," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING Research, in a report. Oil futures ended up on Friday as markets reacted positively to the announcement of additional sanctions that the U.S. Department of the Treasury imposed... The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract rose by $0.62 to $71.23 bbl while the April ICE Brent futures contract increased by $0.52 to $74.81 bbl. March RBOB futures contract rose by $0.0122 to $2.0869 gallon while ULSD futures contract for March delivery increased by $0.0127 to $2.4107 gallon. In the opposite direction, the U.S. Dollar Index dropped by 0.32% to 107.515 against a basket of foreign currencies. Thursday, Feb. 6, the Department of Treasury announced sanctions on "an international network for facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the People's Republic of China." According to the Treasury statement, the Iranian crude was shipped on behalf of Iran's Armed Forces General Staff and Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars. The U.S. sanctions are targeting entities and individuals from China, India and the United Arab Emirates, as well as several vessels. U.S. President Donald Trump reinstated a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran, aiming to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero. Stricter sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil trade are expected to affect global supply-demand balance, putting upward pressure in international oil prices. Friday morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total non-farm payroll employment rose by 143,000 in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4%. Both figures were below the market expectations of 169,000 and 4.1%, respectively. Job gains occurred in healthcare, retail trade and social assistance, while employment dropped in the mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction industry, the BLS said.

Crude falls for the week as Trump's historic moves 'write the script' for oil in the short term - Oil futures climbed Friday from their lowest levels of the year, but tallied a third straight weekly fall amid rising U.S. inventories and worries that the Trump administration's higher tariffs on China will dent economic growth and demand for crude.

• -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for March delivery rose 39 cents, or nearly 0.6%, to $71 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange - but prices for the front-month contract lost 2.1% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
• -- April Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 37 cents, or 0.5%, at $74.66 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a weekly decline of 1.3%.
• -- March gasoline RBH25 tacked on 1.5% to $2.11 a gallon, up 2.2% for the week, while March heating oil HOH25 climbed 1.4% to $2.43 a gallon, for a weekly rise of 1.4%.
• -- Natural gas for March delivery NGH25 settled at $3.31 per million British thermal units, down 2.9% for the session but posting a weekly rise of 8.7%.

Overall, "the biggest influence on oil prices, no doubt, is President Donald Trump," "The president will keep us guessing - from tariffs on to tariffs off." Trump this week restated a goal from his first presidency to bring Iran's oil exports to zero, and there's speculation he may unveil a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. The largest effects on the oil market will be "whether sanctions on Russia would continue to be in place if a peace deal was agreed upon," "If sanctions were removed, there would be some downside volatility in crude-oil markets, even though Russian oil flows have remained steady since sanctions have been in place." 'All of these historic moves are going to write the script for oil in the short term and for the history books for generations to come.' All in all, however, "these historic moves are going to write the script for oil in the short term and for the history books for generations to come," said Flynn. On Friday afternoon, Trump said he would announce reciprocal tariffs next week. Details on that are "missing," Louis Navellier, founder and chief investment officer of Navellier & Associates, wrote in a daily note. He expected more volatility in the financial markets going into the weekend, as "the new administration has been showing a tendency to make new announcements over the weekends." WTI, the U.S. oil benchmark, had fallen toward $70 a barrel on Thursday, finding "strong dip-buying" interest this morning, Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, said in a note. Both WTI and Brent ended Thursday at their lowest since Dec. 27. Concerns over Trump's trade policies - after the imposition of an additional 10% tariff on China this week and uncertainty over other tariff moves - threaten to "hammer global growth prospects and will probably support a deeper retreat in crude prices," she wrote, with a fall toward the $65 to $68 range now looking plausible. A hefty rise in weekly U.S. crude supplies contributed to oil's losses this week. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday that commercial crude inventories climbed for a second week in a row, rising by 8.7 million barrels for the week that ended Jan. 31.

Kremlin Says Zelensky Is 'Delusional' & 'Approaching Madness' After Nuclear Comments -Moscow has responded to fresh words of Ukraine's President Zelensky wherein he urged for the West grant Ukraine nuclear weapons access. "Give us back nuclear arms," Zelensky said while discussing scenarios of how the Ukraine war could end in a televised interview with Piers Morgan. Zelensky told Morgan: "Will we be given nuclear weapons? Then, let them give us nuclear weapons. Will they give us the missiles in the quantities [needed to] stop Russia? I’m not sure of that, but I think it would help. Otherwise, what missiles can stop Russia’s nuclear missiles?" He added: "That’s a rhetorical question."And that's when he urged more seriously, "So, let’s do it the following way: Give us back nuclear arms. Give us missile systems. Partners, help us finance the one-million[-man] army, move your contingent on the parts of our state where we want the stability of the situation, so that the people have tranquility." Zelensky is now openly requesting that nuclear weapons be given to Ukraine and that Ukraine will accept them to deter Russia.There is really only one path forward from this position if you are the Russians. pic.twitter.com/CXRaJlyvPZ

15 Killed as Gunmen Carry Out Sectarian Massacre in Another Syrian Alawite Village - Syria’s ruling Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has repeatedly promised an inclusive Syria that respects all of its communities. That doesn’t appear to be working out so well for the nation’s Alawite minority though, which is coming under growing attack. Over the weekend, gunmen from an unidentified Sunni group attacked the village of Arzah al-Dabaa. They reportedly went door to door andshot Alawites who answered the knock. At least 15 people are reported to have been killed.Details are still emerging, but this is hardly the first time since the regime change in December that Alawites have come under direct attack. The HTS even participated in some past raids, though this incident they don’t appear to have been directly present.(Map of situation in Syria by southfront.press)The Alawites are a Shi’ite sect, and make up about 10% of Syria’s population. Former President Bashar al-Assad was an Alawite, so some who participated in the rebellion are transferring their hostility toward him to Alawite villagers, even though Assad wasn’t always particularly nice to Alawites either, and many were quite hopeful with his ouster. At least at first. Since the regime change, there have been a lot of attacks on Alawite civilians, and the new government has shrugged them off as moves against “remnants” of Assad forces. This minority is definitely feeling at risk in the present circumstances. Reports from the Lebanese side of the border are that Alawites in the village of Ghajar, near the Syria crossing, are increasingly concerned about the fate of their brethren inside Syria. Consistent reports of summary executions and a Syrian government run by people with historic links to al-Qaeda don’t suggest this is going to be resolved any time soon.

Arab states policing Gaza as Trump and Netanyahu plan ethnic cleansing of Palestinians-- US President Donald Trump has made clear that his plan to ethnically cleanse the Gaza Strip assumes the direct collusion of the Arab regimes. When Trump first issued an open call for Israel to “clean” Gaza of its Palestinian inhabitants, in a textbook definition of ethnic cleansing, he told reporters on Air Force One, “You’re talking about probably a million and a half people, and we just clean out” the Gaza Strip, which he described as a “demolition site”. He then called for the Palestinians to be resettled in Jordan and Egypt, adding, “I wish [Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi] would take some. We helped them a lot, and I’m sure he’d help us. He’s a friend of mine. He’s in … a rough neighbourhood. But I think he would do it, and I think the king of Jordan would do it too.” He later made the not too subtle observation that both countries received significant aid from the US. Trump’s call was met with pro-forma and polite rejection from both al-Sisi and Jordan’s King Abdullah. Likewise his subsequent proposal, made at the White House Tuesday alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, of a direct US takeover of Gaza was rejected by all the Arab regimes, who, along with all the major imperialist powers, reiterated their commitment to a Palestinian return to their homeland and an eventual “two states solution.” But however politically difficult this might be for the bourgeoisie in the Middle East, and it certainly is, Trump has reasons to anticipate some form of deal being reached on ethnic cleansing, even if this doesn’t involve a US real estate deal. Over the last 16 months, the Arab states have given their backing for Israel’s genocidal assault and deepened their collusion with the Netanyahu government in policing the Palestinians and suppressing domestic opposition. Their alternative to the forcible displacement of the Palestinians from Gaza desired by Trump and Netanyahu is not a mythical “two states solution”, but their agreeing to act as prison guards for Palestinians trapped in a ruined enclave—without homes, water, electricity, health care and any of the fundamentals of existence. And if this proves unacceptable to the White House, then collusion in some variant of ethnic cleansing is not excluded. Trump’s statements confirm that the fascist government of Netanyahu utilised the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023 to launch a pre-planned campaign of mass murder with the aim of the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, beginning with Gaza and then moving on to the West Bank and including Israel’s two million Arab citizens.

Lancet study finds Gaza life expectancy slashed in half by Israeli genocide - Life expectancy in Gaza plunged by nearly 50 percent in the first year of the Israeli genocide in the besieged enclave, a study published in The Lancet has found. The study, led by Michel Guillot, professor of sociology in the School of Arts & Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania, found that life expectancy in Gaza fell by a staggering 34.9 years, erasing over a century of progress in life expectancy in just one year. For men, life expectancy dropped to 35.6 years from a pre-war life expectancy of 73.6 years—a decline of over 50 percent. For women, life expectancy declined from 77.5 years to 47.5 years. By comparison, Nigeria, the country previously with the lowest life expectancy, has a life expectancy at birth of 54.46 years. The study’s findings indicate that the population of Gaza now has a life expectancy lower than any other country in the world. These findings make clear that Israel’s war in Gaza is not a war, but a genocide, aimed not at any military objective but at killing as many Palestinians as possible and destroying as much of Gaza as possible in order to ethnically cleanse the territory, settle it, and annex it into “greater Israel.” This has been the aim of the Israeli state since the Nakba of 1948-1949, and has been its modus operandi for decades, including the illegal occupation of the Palestinian territories in 1967. With the support of the Biden administration, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu initiated a full-scale genocide in October 2023, using the October 7 attacks as a pretext. The figures in the latest The Lancet study are likely to be a major underestimation, as they do not account for deaths uncounted in official government statistics or deaths due to Israel’s deliberate policy of starvation, dehydration, and the destruction of Gaza’s medical infrastructure. The study based itself on data from Gaza’s Ministry of Health, which estimates that Israeli forces have directly killed 45,936 Palestinians. The authors noted that “our approach to estimating life expectancy losses in this study is conservative as it ignores the indirect effect of the war on mortality… Actual losses are likely to be higher.” Earlier this month, another study published in The Lancet estimated that Palestinian deaths in Gaza from Israeli bullets and bombs “probably exceeded 70,000.” An earlier study from The Lancet suggested that the all-cause mortality from the genocide, including from malnutrition and disease, could be 186,000 or more. In November, the United Nations Human Rights Office published a report showing that nearly 70 percent of verified deaths in Gaza were of women and children, further underlining the reality that Israel is waging a genocide in Gaza.