FOMC Minutes: Concern about tariffs, "take time" on any additional Rate Cuts -- From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 28–29, 2025. Excerpt: With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants expected that, under appropriate monetary policy, inflation would continue to move toward 2 percent, although progress could remain uneven. Participants cited various factors as likely to put continuing downward pressure on inflation, including an easing in nominal wage growth, well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations, waning business pricing power, and the Committee's still-restrictive monetary policy stance. A few noted, however, that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level. Furthermore, some participants commented that with supply and demand in the labor market roughly in balance and in light of recent productivity gains, labor market conditions were unlikely to be a source of inflationary pressure in the near future. However, other factors were cited as having the potential to hinder the disinflation process, including the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs. In addition, some participants noted that some market- or survey-based measures of expected inflation had increased recently, although many participants emphasized that longer-term measures of expected inflation had remained well anchored. Some participants remarked that reported inflation at the beginning of the year was harder than usual to interpret because of the difficulties in fully removing seasonal effects, and a couple of participants commented that any increase in reported inflation in the first quarter due to such difficulties would imply a corresponding decrease in reported inflation in other quarters of the year. ... In discussing the outlook for monetary policy, participants observed that the Committee was well positioned to take time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate. Participants noted that policy decisions were not on a preset course and were conditional on the evolution of the economy, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks.
Fed officials are worried about tariffs' impact on inflation and see rate cuts on hold, minutes show - Federal Reserve officials in January agreed they would need to see inflation come down more before lowering interest rates further, and expressed concern about the impact President Donald Trump's tariffs would have in making that happen, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously decided at the meeting to hold their key policy rate steady after three consecutive cuts totaling a full percentage point in 2024. In reaching the decision, members commented on the potential impacts from the new administration, including chatter about the tariffs as well as the impact from reduced regulations and taxes. The committee noted that current policy is "significantly less restrictive" than it had been before the rate cuts, giving members time to evaluate conditions before making any additional moves. Members said that the current policy provides "time to assess the evolving outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation, with the vast majority pointing to a still-restrictive policy stance. Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate." Officials noted concerns they had about the potential for policy changes to keep inflation above the Fed's target. The president already has instituted some tariffs but in recent days has threatened to expand them. In remarks to reporters Tuesday, Trump said he is looking at 25% duties on autos, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors that would accelerate through the year. While he did not delve too far into specifics, the tariffs would take trade policy to another level and pose further threats to prices at a time when inflation has eased but is still above the Fed's 2% goal. FOMC members cited, according to the meeting summary, "the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy as well as strong consumer demand. Business contacts in a number of Districts had indicated that firms would attempt to pass on to consumers higher input costs arising from potential tariffs." They further noted "upside risks to the inflation outlook. In particular, participants cited the possible effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy." Since the meeting, most central bank officials have spoken in cautious tones about where policy is headed from here. Most view the current level of rates in a position where they can take their time when evaluating how to proceed. In addition to the general focus Fed officials put on employment and inflation, Trump's plans for fiscal and trade policies have added a wrinkle into the considerations. On the flip side of worries over tariffs and inflation, the minutes noted "substantial optimism about the economic outlook, stemming in part from an expectation of an easing in government regulations or changes in tax policies." Many economists expect tariffs that Trump plans on launching to aggravate inflation, though Fed policymakers have said their response would be dependent on whether they are one-time increases or if they generate more underlying inflation that would necessitate a policy response. Inflation indicators lately have been mixed, with consumer prices rising more than expected in January but wholesale prices indicating softer pipeline pressures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has generally avoided speculation on the impact the tariffs would have. However, other officials have expressed concern and conceded that Trump's moves could impact policy, possibly delaying rate cuts further. Market pricing currently is anticipating the next reduction to come in July or September. The Fed's benchmark overnight borrowing rate is currently targeted between 4.25%-4.5%.
FOMC minutes hint at end of quantitative tightening - January’s FOMC meeting minutes were released this week, providing plenty of fodder for monetary plumbing nerds to piece together what the Fed thinks about bank reserves and its ongoing campaign of quantitative tightening (QT).As seen in the chart below, the QT campaign has been fraught with nuance and idiosyncratic offsetting. As QT occurred, the vast majority of it has been offset by the reverse repo facility (RRP) balance as seen by the white line below. Further, this has been hiccuped by the debt ceiling debacle of 2023 and the SVB banking crisis that led to the bank term funding program’s creation. All that said, we’re getting close to the end goal of QT in terms of the bank reserve levels the Fed is targeting. There are a lot of ways to measure this, but a simple shorthand is that the Fed has been targeting an ideal reserve level of $3 trillion that includes both bank reserves and the RRP. Currently, that nets us at $3.27 trillion. Given this context, there’s been a lot of talk about when the Fed might end QT altogether. And with the release of this week’s FOMC meeting minutes, we received our first hint:A number of participants also discussed some issues related to the balance sheet. Regarding the composition of secondary-market purchases of Treasury securities that would occur once the process of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities had come to an end, many participants expressed the view that it would be appropriate to structure purchases in a way that moved the maturity composition of the SOMA portfolio closer to that of the outstanding stock of Treasury debt while also minimizing the risk of disruptions to the market. Regarding the potential for significant swings in reserves over coming months related to debt ceiling dynamics, various participants noted that it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet runoff until the resolution of this event. Several participants also expressed support for the Desk's future consideration of possible ways to improve the efficacy of the SRF. Now, there’s a lot to unpack here as it contains a lot of nuances. Let’s run through them:
- The Fed is re-thinking the duration of the bonds it holds. Ideally, it wants to run back to a level of duration that was pre-2008 and pre-QE. That is what they meant by saying “appropriate to structure purchases in a way that moved the maturity composition of the SOMA portfolio closer to that of the outstanding stock of Treasury debt…” As of right now, that SOMA portfolio is composed of 5% in T-bills. However, treasury issuance is at 22.4%.
- The Fed is concerned about the implications of the debt ceiling and the ensuing treasury general account (TGA) drawdown, as well as the following TGA rebuild once the debt ceiling is resolved. Simply put, for the TGA to be rebuilt back to the level it was before the debt ceiling, Treasury needs to issue a ton of T-bills. In 2023 it was able to do this easily because the RRP was filled to the brim and acted as a dampener for it. Now, sitting at $73 million, there’s no buffer. As such, the following statement was included in the minutes: “Regarding the potential for significant swings in reserves over coming months related to debt ceiling dynamics, various participants noted that it may be appropriate to consider pausing or slowing balance sheet run-off until resolution of this event…”
- Although not a pressing concern, the Fed is getting closer and closer to reserve levels where “liquidity hiccups” tend to happen. The last time this occurred was September 2019 when reserves were too scarce and caused a major repo spike, stopping QT in its tracks. However, looking at the current reserve demand elasticity dashboard below (one of the best metrics for gauging risk of a repo blowup), as long as we are near that zero level there are no short-term concerns. That said, the Fed is aware that time is ticking and it does not want a repeat of September 2019 — hence its mention that “several participants also expressed support for the Desk’s future considerations of possible ways to improve the efficacy of the SRF…” The SRF, or standing repo facility, is a new permanent tool the Fed has in place to act as a shock absorber during events such as in September 2019. By mentioning its aim to improve efficacy, we can surmise that the Fed is focused on ensuring all the correct tools are in place to continue gradual balance sheet run-off.
Fed vice chair says approach automated analysis with caution -- The Federal Reserve Board's second-in-command said sophisticated analysis techniques have made monetary policy transmission more efficient in recent years, but cautioned that it is still not perfect. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said clearer Fed communication and better text analysis has made monetary policy transmission more efficient, but noted that the central bank must remain diligent in how it communicates forward monetary policy guidance.
Senate Republicans push for defense, border funding boosts --- Senate Republicans have the ambitious goal of jamming through funding boosts for defense and border security — separately from the appropriations process — ahead of a mid-March deadline to prevent a government shutdown. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said this week that he told President Trump “it would be really helpful if we could give him the money for the border plan for four years before March 14.” “It’d be really helpful if we had $150 billion of new money before March 14, because the discussions about funding the government are dramatically different,” he told The Hill. “And I think he buys into that.” The strategy could help GOP lawmakers secure more leverage in funding talks, as Republicans have sought lower levels for nondefense programs, while Democrats have demanded parity in increases to both defense and nondefense spending. But Republicans face enormous hurdles in moving such a plan out of Congress, despite controlling both chambers, as GOP leaders clash over how to advance key parts of Trump’s tax, defense and border agenda. Republicans would move the border and defense money through a process known as reconciliation, which would allow them to bypass the 60-vote threshold normally needed to move bills in the Senate. But reconciliation is a lengthy and complicated process, normally taking far longer than the month remaining until March 14, and the chambers are already at odds over the first step. House and Senate Republicans last week advanced two separate budget resolutions, which unlock the reconciliation process and outline requirements for the final bill. The Senate resolution, which passed out of committee on Wednesday, seeks to allow upward of $300 billion to beef up border and national defense that Republicans hope to offset in the eventual package that results from the process. The House followed suit shortly after, advancing out of the Budget Committee a broader budget blueprint that would also allow boosts in spending for border and defense, but it goes much further. In addition to paving the way for potentially trillions of dollars in spending cuts, as well costly extensions to Trump’s tax cuts and other potential tax wish list items, it also would allow for a $4 trillion increase to the nation’s debt limit — which comes as Congress is facing a ticking clock to act to prevent a national default later this year.While Senate Republicans are also looking to pass significant tax legislation using the same wonky procedure later in the year, they’re opting to prioritize passing a narrower border and defense package to deliver an early win to Trump. The chambers would need to agree, and adopt, a strategy before they can move to a final bill. Adding to the pressure on Republicans, lawmakers are beginning to acknowledge a stopgap funding measure of some kind will likely be needed to prevent a shutdown next month, even as the Trump administration is clamoring for more money for border security. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) didn’t rule out a full-year stopgap to keep the government funded through the end of the fiscal year, while keeping funding largely the same as when Congress last set spending levels almost a year ago, as lawmakers struggle to strike a bipartisan deal. Senior Trump administration officials spoke to senators this week to stress the need for additional border funds at a closed-door meeting. “Why would they come over and tell us begging for money if they didn’t want to move?” Graham told reporters afterward.
Energy, environment fights to play out on Senate floor - The Senate may take up a budget resolution as soon as this week to advance Republicans’ plans to pass party-line immigration, national security and energy legislation in the coming months. Passing a budget in the Senate means an hourslong vote-a-rama — where senators from both parties propose non-binding amendments meant to get lawmakers on the record and score political points. Energy and environment issues have been prominent in previous marathon voting sessions, and this year, Republicans are making energy one of their marquee issues. That’s why both parties are likely to make energy, environment and climate amendments prominent during vote-a-rama. “The Biden administration, through their policies, made it very, very difficult for this country to become energy dominant, and it’s going to take a while to get us back to where we need to be,” said Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) last week.
Senate kicks off consideration of budget resolution to advance Trump agenda -The Senate GOP on Tuesday officially teed up a vote on its budget resolution for later this week in a bid to enact a portion of President Trump’s agenda. Senators voted 50-47 to kick off consideration of the budget resolution, which the Senate Budget Committee advanced last week.The resolution outlines guidelines Republicans would use to craft the first part of their ambitious, two-part plan to pass Trump’s legislative agenda. Republicans are aiming to use a process known as reconciliation, which bypasses the Senate filibuster and the need for Democratic votes.The first portion would consist of roughly $325 billion to bolster border operations and allow Trump’s deportation plans to be executed, and to boost defense spending and greenlight energy plans. Senate Republicans are planning to use a second reconciliation bill to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.Tuesday’s vote sets up a lengthy process that will consume much of the chamber’s work this week. Following Tuesday’s vote, 50 hours of debate will take place and will be followed by a vote-a-rama — an often grueling, hours-long session where senators vote on amendments.Many of those amendments will be brought forth by Democrats, taking advantage of a rare opportunity to force votes on the floor that could not happen otherwise and make Republican lawmakers take politically perilous votes.Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) over the weekend urged Democrats to push amendments to amplify their accusations that Republicans are trying to slash benefits for everyday Americans to fund tax cuts for the wealthy.The Senate is forging ahead with its budget resolution this week even as House leaders are doubling down on their own strategy. The House last week advanced a separate budget resolution that would serve as the umbrella for a single bill that combines defense and border spending with an extension of the Trump tax cuts, along with other priorities.This has been the preferred strategy of Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.), who have concerns that they may only have one chance to pass the Trump agenda given their minuscule majority.“We remain laser-focused on sending our bill to President Trump’s desk to secure the border, keep taxes low, restore American energy dominance, strengthen America’s military, and make government work better for all Americans,” Johnson wrote on the social platform X on Tuesday, shortly after Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) announced plans to move the upper chamber’s bill this week.House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) had a similar sentiment, taking a veiled jab at Thune.“All of Trump’s priorities in one big, beautiful bill start moving when we pass @RepArrington’s budget,” he wrote on X. “Let’s go Make America Great Again!” Senate GOP lawmakers have plowed ahead on the two-bill plan as it would put points on the board in quick order during Trump’s first 100 days and unleash money for the White House’s border efforts.
Key GOP votes withhold support from House plan despite Trump’s backing - Three key House moderates told The Hill on Wednesday that they are still not on board with the chamber’s budget resolution, even after President Trump endorsed it earlier in the day. Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.), Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said they still have concerns about potential cuts to Medicaid, which some GOP lawmakers are eyeing to pay for the cost of tax cuts and other provisions in the massive package. It’s a concerning sign for GOP leaders as they try to corral the conference around the measure ahead of next week’s vote. Republicans can only afford to lose one vote if all members are present and the entire Democratic caucus votes “no,” which is expected. “I’m leaning no on the resolution as-is, minus getting clarity on my concerns,” Malliotakis said shortly after Trump endorsed the House GOP’s single-bill plan over a rival Senate GOP two-bill plan. “I’m glad to hear that he agrees with me that we need to protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, but it doesn’t eliminate my concerns with the specific resolution put forward by the House or my need for clarity before next week’s vote,” Malliotakis said. Valadao, who represents a purple battleground district, said “there’s probably 10 [Republicans] that are really nervous about the situation,” signaling that the concerns are not confined to the three Republicans speaking out. “Until I know exactly what’s going to be in, or what this is going to look like, or at least have some pretty good idea, I’m really concerned with this,” he added. “But it sounds like the president and myself and others are on the same page, we don’t want to touch Medicaid. We want to make sure that we’re all on the same page. If he’s on the same page as me, that makes me feel a little bit better about it.” The Republicans were referring to comments made by Trump on Tuesday night during an interview with Fox News’s Sean Hannity, where he said he would not significantly impact Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, aligning with the position of many moderate GOP lawmakers. “Social Security won’t be touched — other than if there’s fraud or something — we’re going to find it; it’s going to be strengthened — but won’t be touched,” Trump said. “Medicare, Medicaid, none of that stuff is going to be touched.” That statement runs counter to remarks from some House Republicans, who believe that cuts to Medicaid will be needed to achieve the minimum spending cut levels that were outlined in the conference’s budget resolution. The measure — which advanced out of the Budget Committee last week and is on track for a House floor vote next week — lays out a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees with a target of $2 trillion. It puts a $4.5 trillion ceiling on the deficit impact of any GOP plan to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, and includes $300 billion in additional spending for the border and defense and a $4 trillion debt limit increase.
Trump backs House budget plan that could cut Medicaid -- President Trump expressed his support Wednesday for the House budget strategy to pass a single bill that combines all his priorities, which may require pairing down Medicaid, a service that provides health care for millions of Americans. “The House and Senate are doing a SPECTACULAR job of working together as one unified, and unbeatable, TEAM, however, unlike the Lindsey Graham version of the very important Legislation currently being discussed, the House Resolution implements my FULL America First Agenda, EVERYTHING, not just parts of it!” Trump wrote in a post to Truth Social. “We need both Chambers to pass the House Budget to ‘kickstart’ the Reconciliation process, and move all of our priorities to the concept of, ‘ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL.’ It will, without question, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump’s endorsement comes less than a day after he said he would leave some social safety net programs including Medicaid intact during an interview with Fox News. “Medicare, Medicaid — none of that stuff is going to be touched,” he told Fox News’s Sean Hannity. “We won’t have to.” But the House GOP’s strategy currently calls for finding $880 billion in savings from the committee with jurisdiction over Medicaid to pay for Trump’s tax cut extension and border security priorities. Medicaid provides health care to 72 million low-income Americans. As of last year, about 37 million people were either enrolled in the Children’s Health Insurance Program or were children on Medicaid. On the campaign trail, Trump indicated an openness to making cuts to federal entitlement programs. In a March 2024 interview on CNBC, he said there was “a lot you can do in terms of entitlements in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements, tremendous bad management of entitlements.” With the current makeup of the House, Republicans can only afford to lose one vote to pass the budget resolution, and two GOP representatives from districts that rely heavily on Medicaid have expressed apprehension on the proposal. Republican Reps. David Valadao (Calif.) and Nicole Malliotakis (N.Y.) both told The Hill they are withholding support of the resolution pending more information about the cuts.
Senior Pentagon official acknowledges budget cuts under consideration - A senior Pentagon official on Wednesday acknowledged the agency was considering major budget cuts to the tune of 8 percent every year for the next five years. In a statement, Acting Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Salesses said the cuts were being conceived to pay for other Trump administration defense priorities, including a desired “Iron Dome for America” missile defense system and border security. He added that DOD looks to “cease unnecessary spending that set our military back” such as on climate change programs and diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives. “The Department will develop a list of potential offsets that could be used to fund these priorities, as well as to refocus the Department on its core mission of deterring and winning wars,” Salesses said. “The offsets are targeted at 8% of the Biden Administration’s FY26 budget, totaling around $50 billion.” The Washington Post first reported that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had ordered top defense officials to draw up proposed cuts by Feb. 24, according to a Tuesday memo. The document included a list of 17 categories that the Trump administration wants exempt from the budget slashing, including operations at the southern U.S. border, nuclear weapon and missile defense modernization, and acquisition of one-way attack drones and other munitions, the Post reported. “The Department of Defense is conducting this review to ensure we are making the best use of the taxpayers’ dollars in a way that delivers on the President Trump’s defense priorities efficiently and effectively,” Salesses said.
John Thune surprised by Donald Trump backing House bill: 'Did not see that one coming' -- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters on Wednesday that he was surprised by President Trump’s support for the GOP-controlled House’s one-bill spending plan as Congress navigates crucial budget negotiations.“Did not see that one coming,” Thune said of Trump’s post on Truth Social hours earlier. In his post, the president praised both the House and Senate for “doing a SPECTACULAR job of working together as one unified, and unbeatable, TEAM,” but urged Senate Republicans to look to the House, rather than trying a piecemeal approach to enacting his sweeping agenda.“House Resolution implements my FULL America First Agenda, EVERYTHING, not just parts of it!” he wrote. “We need both Chambers to pass the House Budget to ‘kickstart’ the Reconciliation process, and move all of our priorities to the concept of, ‘ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL.'”On Wednesday, Vice President Vance is meeting with Senate Republicans to continue discussions, while Trump is in Florida.Thune said Vance, who represented Ohio in the Senate for two years, would have an opportunity to “further clarify, elaborate on the White House’s views on the subject.”“I think we’re all heading in the same direction. We all want to get to the same result and ultimate destination. How we get there is still a point of discussion,” the Senate GOP leader said. “It’d be really boring if we had a unicameral system, wouldn’t it?”Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso (Wyo.), the No. 2 Republican in the chamber, told reporters after Trump’s post that senators are “still on schedule” with their budget resolution.The Republican leaders in the House and Senate have been at odds over the strategy to pass a budget outline, with the Senate plotting out a two-bill approach while the House has stuck to a single-bill strategy.The Senate on Tuesday teed up a vote for its budget resolution later this week, which would set the guidelines the GOP-controlled Senate uses as it crafts the first of a two-part plan to advance Trump’s legislative agenda. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who is a close ally of Trump, hit back at the Senate’s approach this week as the upper chamber’s leadership moved the two-step effort.“We remain laser-focused on sending our bill to President Trump’s desk to secure the border, keep taxes low, restore American energy dominance, strengthen America’s military, and make government work better for all Americans,” Johnson wrote on the social platform X on Tuesday, shortly after Thune outlined plans for the week.But Thune has defended the upper chamber’s approach, while maintaining interest in the House’s progress and optimism about the outcome.“We’re planning to proceed. … We’re interested in what the House can pass,” he said. “We’ve got a lot to do and the tax components of it, the deficit-reduction components of it are things that we’re going to have to, at some point, agree on. But in the near term, the president has asked for resources to secure the border, we know we have to rebuild our military, and those are priorities that are addressed in the targeted bill that we put together.
Senate moves to take up budget reconciliation plan - Senate Republicans will vote this week on a budget blueprint that would unlock a key part of President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda. “It’s time to act on the decisive mandate the American people gave to President Trump in November,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) wrote on X on Tuesday afternoon. “Securing the border, rebuilding our defense, and unleashing American energy,” Thune wrote, starts by approving a plan from Senate Budget Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Hours after Thune sent out that social media post, senators voted 50-47 on a motion to proceed to the resolution. A marathon session of amendment votes will happen before the blueprint’s adoption.
Collins: Spending negotiations ‘not going well’ - Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins told reporters Wednesday afternoon that funding negotiations with Democrats “are not going well” as lawmakers stare down a government shutdown deadline in just over three weeks. It usually takes congressional leaders at least a month to finalize a dozen annual funding bills after top appropriators strike an initial agreement on overall totals for the military and nondefense programs. But the Maine Republican and her fellow top appropriators have yet to strike that “toplines” deal to lay the groundwork for negotiating the details of the 12 bills — and the shutdown deadline on March 14 is quickly ticking closer. Given the time crunch, lawmakers are likely to fall back on at least a short-term stopgap next month, if not a “full-year” funding patch that would keep agencies running on current spending levels through September.
Graham defends Senate budget resolution amid Trump opposition: ‘Complete game changer’ -Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) defended the Senate’s budget resolution, which rolled in during the wee hours of Friday morning and involves a two-track process instead of the one large spending bill proposed by President Trump.“This budget resolution is a complete game changer when it comes to securing our border and making our military more lethal. It will allow President Trump to fulfill the promises he made to the American people — a very big deal,” Graham said in a Friday statement lauding the text. He commended his GOP colleagues for their “discipline” in adopting a framework that he said would be the “most transformational border security bill in history.”The $340 billion resolution carves out $175 billion for border operations and immigration enforcement, in addition to $150 billion in defense spending. Graham made it clear that the funding bill only outlines a spending number but does not direct how money will be spent. Notably, it does not feature the tax portion of Trump’s agenda, which Senate Republicans hope to pass later in the year. “I hope the House can pass one big bill that meets President Trump’s priorities. But this approach provides money that we needed yesterday to continue the momentum on securing our border, enforcing our immigration laws, and rebuilding our military,” the Senate Budget Committee chair wrote.
Report: Hegseth Orders Pentagon To Make Sweeping Budget Cuts - Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered Pentagon leaders to develop plans to make sweeping cuts to the Defense Department’s budget, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday.According to a memo obtained by the Post, Hegseth’s order calls for an 8% cut to the Pentagon budget each year for five years. The Pentagon budget for 2025 is about $850 billion, and an 8% cut for five years would bring it down to roughly $560 billion, a reduction of $290 billion.Hegseth wants the proposed cuts to be drawn up by February 24, and the memo included a list of 17 categories that would be exempt from the spending cuts. The Post report said the exemptions include operations at the southern border, modernization of nuclear weapons and missile defense, and acquisition of submarines, one-way attack drones, and other munitions.The Pentagon has also been targeted by Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration ordered the Pentagon to hand over a list of its probationary employees with the expectation that many may be fired, which came as DOGE workers arrived at the Pentagon.The news of the plan to cut the Pentagon budget comes after President Trump suggested he wanted a major reduction in US military spending, saying he wanted to cut it in half as part of a deal with Russia and China.While the Pentagon budget for 2025 is about $850 billion, total US military and national security spending for the year is expected to reach $1.77 trillion, according to veteran defense analyst Winslow Wheeler. Wheeler’s estimate accounts for military-related spending from other government agencies not funded by the National Defense Authorization Act, such as the Department of Veteran Affairs and Homeland Security. It also includes the national security share of the interest accrued on the US debt and other factors.Update on February 20 at 12:44 pm EST: According to a statement from Acting Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert G. Salesses, Hegseth’s order will not actually cut spending but offset spending from certain programs to fund priorities of the Trump administration.
Pentagon Says Hegseth’s Order Will Redirect Spending, Not Make Actual Cuts -- Acting Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert G. Salesses said in a statement on Wednesday night that Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ordered a review of Pentagon spending to realign spending to fund priorities of the Trump administration.The statement from Salesses came after a report from The Washington Post said that Hegseth ordered a plan to cut Pentagon spending by 8% each year over the next five years. But according to the statement from Salesses, the idea is to redirect spending and not actually make cuts to the budget.“Secretary Hegseth has directed a review to identify offsets from the Biden Administration’s FY26 budget that could be realigned from low-impact and low-priority Biden-legacy programs to align with President Trump’s America First priorities for our national defense,” Salesses said.“The Department will develop a list of potential offsets that could be used to fund these priorities, as well as to refocus the Department on its core mission of deterring and winning wars. The offsets are targeted at 8% of the Biden Administration’s FY26 budget, totaling around $50 billion, which will then be spent on programs aligned with President Trump’s priorities,” he added.Salesses said that through the Trump administration’s budget, the Pentagon “will once again resource warfighting and cease unnecessary spending that set our military back under the previous administration, including through so-called “climate change” and other woke programs, as well as excessive bureaucracy.”Salesses said spending priorities from the Trump administration include the “Iron Dome for America,” referring to an order from the president to establish a major new missile defense system, a project that would be a boon for the weapons makers and likely start a new arms race. Trump has also backed a budget plandrawn up by House Republicans that would increase military spending by $100 billion. According to Breaking Defense, the memo issued by Hegseth included 17 categories of spending that would be exempt from the offsets:
- Southwest Border Activities
- Combating Transnational Criminal Organizations in the Western Hemisphere
- Audit
- Nuclear Modernization (including NC3)
- Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs)
- Virginia-class Submarines
- Executable Surface Ships
- Homeland Missile Defense
- One-Way Attack/Autonomous Systems
- Counter-small UAS Initiatives
- Priority Critical Cybersecurity
- Munitions
- Core Readiness, including full DRT funding
- Munitions and Energetics Organic Industrial Bases
- Executable INDOPACOM MILCON (military construction in the Asia Pacific)
- Combatant Command support agency funding for INDOPACOM, NORTHCOM, SPACECOM, STRATCOM, CYBERCOM, and TRANSCOM
- Medical Private-Sector Care
Can We Really Cut Half Of The Military Budget? Ron Paul Says "You Bet!" -- by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute, The wailing sound you heard last Thursday was the chorus of the Beltway warmongers shrieking in despair at President Trump’s suggestion that there was no reason for the United States to be spending one trillion dollars on “defense.”“…[O]ne of the first meetings I want to have is with President Xi of China and President Putin of Russia, and I want to say let’s cut our military budget in half. And we can do that, and I think we’ll be able to do that,” the President told reporters.With this statement, President Trump blew up one of the biggest myths of our time, particularly among Republicans, that spending more on the military is essential to keeping us safe. There is a vast and well-funded network of political and industrial interests that depend on maintaining that myth, from the weapons manufacturers to the mainstream media to the think tanks and beyond. Why? Because most of what is called “defense spending” has little to do with defending this country and a lot to do with enriching the politically well-connected.Maintaining that global military empire has bankrupted the United States while making us less safe and less free.President Trump seems to understand this. But the military-industrial complex and its cheerleaders have for decades pushed the idea that we could not survive without continuously increasing their budgets.Thanks to the work of the “Department of Government Efficiency” we are learning that much of what has been sold as “essential spending” is nothing of the sort. Take USAID, for example. We were led to believe that this agency was feeding the poor while promoting the best kind of American values overseas. Thanks to DOGE, we learned that the money was going to absurdities like funding transgender puppet shows in Peru.We are also learning that a great deal of USAID money was going to actually overthrow democratic governments overseas – as well as manipulate foreign media and promote censorship of “dissident” voices at home and abroad. Not only was USAID not helping countries overseas – it was actually harming them!Just as with USAID, when we are able to see just where that one trillion military budget is going Americans are going to fully realize that they have been lied to for decades. That is why we need a full audit of the Pentagon and full transparency of the results.We also need a change in policy. Americans are beginning to understand the economic costs of maintaining a global military empire. US taxpayers are forced to cover more than half of the entire NATO budget while European countries rattle sabers at Russia and threaten war. If Europe feels so threatened by Russia, why don’t they cover the costs of their own defense? Why do poor Americans have to pay for the defense of rich Europeans? Haven’t we had enough of this?
Trump stuns Europe with opening Ukraine-Russia gambit -European leaders are scrambling to respond to President Trump’s first moves to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, shocked to find themselves on the outside of high-stakes talks about the continent’s security and grappling with a potential retreat of U.S. forces from Europe. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said “real talks” will involve Europe and Ukraine, as he prepares to meet his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. But that follows a slew of mixed messages from Trump’s top officials and a browbeating from Vice President Vance at the Munich Security Conference last week. Leaders of eight major European countries met Monday to coordinate a response, after being caught on their back foot by Trump’s opening gambit on Russia-Ukraine talks. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday said he “knew nothing about” the peace discussions in the Middle East until they were announced publicly. “I think Europe is realizing that they have to come up with a plan, quickly, and on their own to be ready for whatever comes next,” said Sudha David-Wilp, vice president of external relations and senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund. “The mood was turning from bad to worse,” said one European foreign policy expert who attended the Munich conference, granted anonymity to speak candidly. Up Next - Extreme weather sweeps across U.S. -00:09 European officials expected to be taken to task over low defense spending, but not to be left out of talks completely. The uncertainty is already spurring talks on loosening the EU’s budgetary deficit requirements to allow more spending on defense, the expert said. Sign up for the Morning Report The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates “There will probably be a series of announcements by Europeans in the upcoming days to signal to the Americans that they are to be taken seriously — but also to reassure each other,” they said. French President Emmanuel Macron called the emergency meeting on Monday, inviting the leaders of Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark and the European Union. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer proposed sending British troops to Ukraine as postwar peacekeepers, responding to Trump’s calls for Europe to take more responsibility for its security. And Zelensky lectured Europe against being treated “like a pushover” and called for the European Union to nominate an envoy to any peace talks. “There must be a representative of Europe,” Zelensky told reporters, also warning that “Ukraine regards any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no results.”The Trump administration fueled European fears throughout last week, starting with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth attending a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels. Hegseth warned Europe to prepare for a future without U.S. troops on the continent, and triggered whiplash by seeming to rule out Ukraine joining NATO as part of peace talks, before later saying all options remain on the table.
Zelensky Says Ukraine Will 'Not Recognize' Upcoming US-Russia Talks - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that Ukraine will “not recognize” upcoming talks between the US and Russia and denied that his country was invited to participate. “Ukraine will not accept. Ukraine knew nothing about this. And Ukraine regards any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no results,” Zelensky told reporters while visiting the UAE. The Kremlin has confirmed the peace talks with the US will be held in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. The negotiations will involve high-level Russian and American officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Zelensky denied claims from US officials that Ukraine was invited. “Ukraine will not take part in the negotiations. Ukraine did not know they were planned. And the visit to the region was planned long before the US decided to meet Russia there,” he said. Rubio arrived in Saudi Arabia on Monday, and he is expected to be joined by US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy who has been involved in some diplomacy with Russia. Lavrov will be joined by Yury Ushakov, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelensky has said that European countries should be involved in the talks, but that idea has been rejected by both the US and Russia. Lavrov said Monday that most European leaders aren’t interested in peace. “I don’t know what they could do at the negotiating table. If their aim is to cunningly extract a deceptive truce while secretly preparing for continued war—true to their habits and nature—then why invite them at all?” Lavrov said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. While it’s still unclear how the war will end, the Trump administration’s policy toward Russia is a dramatic shift from the Biden administration, which essentially cut off high-level contacts with Moscow after the Russian invasion of Ukraine despite the risk of nuclear war.
Top US, Russian officials discuss ending Ukraine war - Top officials from the U.S. and Russia met in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss mending the relationship between the countries and negotiating an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine.No Ukrainian officials were present at the meeting, The Associated Press reported.The talks come after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country wouldn’t agree to any pause in fighting if the country wasn’t involved in the peace talks.President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone last week, a call intending to kick-start negotiations to end the nearly three-year war. Trump said it was a “lengthy and highly productive” call with Putin, but Zelensky was not happy that his allied country prioritized a call with Russia before Ukraine. Russian officials said the U.S. will be its “main counterpart” in the peace talks, sidelining Ukraine, but admitting the country will be involved “one way or another.” Tuesday’s meeting was attended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and other senior officials, the AP reported. Rubio reportedly said there would have to be concessions from all sides to end the war. He also said the European Union will “have to be at the table at some point,” because both the allied countries and the U.S. have imposed sanctions on Russia because of its Ukraine invasion. The meeting was expected to focus on U.S.-Russian relations and mend the relationship between Trump and Putin. The talks also will be a determining moment for both countries to assess how serious the other is about coming to a ceasefire for the war and improving international ties.“President Trump wants to stop the killing; the United States wants peace and is using its strength in the world to bring countries together,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement following the meeting. “President Trump is the only leader in the world who can get Ukraine and Russia to agree to that.”“One phone call followed by one meeting is not sufficient to establish enduring peace. We must take action, and today we took an important step forward,” Bruce added later.Rubio also said officials at the meeting agreed to restore embassy staffing and create a team to negotiate a ceasefire, per the AP.Ukraine’s absence from the talks caused concern and an emergency meeting of European Union countries and the U.K. was called on Monday to discuss the ongoing war, the newswire also noted.Zelensky called for the European Union to nominate an envoy to attend any peace talks, as the meeting between U.S. and Russian officials came as a surprise to many. He has also recently floated the need for a unified European army. Trump has expressed that he intends to meet with Putin soon. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, indicated Tuesday that it is unlikely to take place this week or next.
A deeper look at the talks between US and Russian officials and what comes next (AP) — Top U.S. and Russian officials had their most extensive high-level engagement since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine almost three years ago, meeting for nearly four hours Tuesday in Saudi Arabia as President Donald Trump sought to advance his goal of ending the fighting in Ukraine and mending ties with Moscow. The delegations led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the discussions were a good first step. They agreed to set up teams to look into restoring staffing at the U.S. and Russian embassies in Moscow and Washington that have been decimated by a series of tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions. The effort is aimed at using those channels to support Ukraine peace negotiations and to explore ways to restart economic and global cooperation. A Russian official pointed to possible joint energy ventures. However, the rapprochement may come at a cost to the transatlantic alliance of the U.S. and Europe and significantly damage Washington’s standing with Ukraine as well as with other nations counting on U.S. leadership in NATO and elsewhere for their security and protection. During former President Joe Biden’s administration, the U.S. and Europe focused on isolating Russia and defending the post-World War II international order. First on both countries’ list of accomplishments was an agreement to end what has been years of dwindling diplomatic relations that hit a post-Cold War low point after Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022. The meeting, which came just a week after Trump spoke to Putin by phone, was the first substantive face-to-face discussion between the nations’ top diplomats since former Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Lavrov in Geneva in January 2022 in an unsuccessful bid to prevent the Ukraine conflict. Lavrov said after Tuesday’s talks that the sides agreed to fast-track the appointment of new ambassadors, adding that senior diplomats from the two countries will meet shortly to discuss specifics related to “lifting artificial barriers to the work of the U.S. and Russian embassies and other missions.” In reality, the decimation of the U.S. and Russian embassies personnel began well before Russian troops rolled into Ukraine in 2022, starting after 2014 Russia’s annexation of Crimea that was seen as illegal by most of the world during the Obama administration, which ordered several Russian offices in the U.S. to close. It picked up steam after the 2018 poisoning in Britain of an exiled Russian spy and his daughter, which British authorities blamed on Russia, and resulted in mass expulsions of diplomats and the closure of numerous consulates in both countries and Europe. Asked by The Associated Press if the U.S. now considered those cases closed, Rubio declined to say but said it would be impossible to get a Ukraine peace agreement without diplomatic engagement. “I’m not going to negotiate or talk through every element of the disruptions that exist or have existed in our diplomatic relations, on the mechanics of it,” he said. Bringing an end to the conflict cannot happen “unless we have at least some normalcy in the way our diplomatic missions operate in Moscow and in Washington, D.C.” The two sides agreed to set up high-level working groups to begin exploring a negotiated end to the conflict. It was not immediately clear when these teams would first meet, but both said it would be soon.
US, Russia Agree To Normalize Diplomatic Ties, Seek End to War in Ukraine - Following a high-level meeting between US and Russian officials, the State Department said Washington and Moscow will begin taking steps to normalize the diplomatic relationship between the two superpowers. US-Russian diplomacy sank during the first Donald Trump administration, and Joe Biden cut nearly all contact with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff met with a Russian delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday. During a press conference after the meeting, Rubio said the parties agreed on four points. “First is that we are going to work – we’re going to point our teams’ respectively to work very quickly to reestablish the functionality of our respective missions in Washington and in Moscow.” He continued, “For us to be able to continue to move down this road, we need to have diplomatic facilities that are operating and functioning normally.”US and Russian ties have declined over the past decade. Rubio claimed that President Trump is uniquely equipped for this task. However, during his first administration, Washington significantly set back its diplomatic relationship with Russia. Trump previously set records for sanctioning Russia and expelling Russian diplomats from the US. He destroyed two key nuclear arms control agreements with Moscow and refused to engage with the Kremlin on extending the New Start Treaty.Lavrov said he viewed the summit as a success. “We did not just listen but heard each other, and I have reason to believe the American side has better understood our position,” Russia’s top diplomat explained.Witkoff gave a glowing response to what was discussed during the meeting. “It was positive, upbeat, constructive, everybody [was] there to get to the right outcome, solution-based. We discussed it afterwards. We couldn’t have imagined a better result after this session. It was very, very solid,” he told the press.Rubio went on to explain the final three points. “The second point is that we’re going to appoint a high-level team from our end to help negotiate and walk – work through the end of the conflict in Ukraine in a way that’s enduring and acceptable to all the parties engaged.” He continued, “The third point is to begin to work at a high level as well to begin to discuss and think about and examine both the geopolitical and economic cooperation that could result from an end to the conflict in Ukraine.”The top American diplomat added, “The last thing we agreed to [is] that, while our teams are going to be working on all of this, the five of us that were here today are going to remain engaged in this process to make sure that it’s moving along in a productive way.”While Tuesday’s talks were the first significant effort aimed at ending the war in Ukraine since April 2022, Trump’s effort to engage with Russia has been condemned by much of the political class in the West. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that he will refuse to abide by any agreement inked between the US and Russia.According to NSA Waltz, the two sides did not set a date for a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. “But the two presidents talked about meeting and expect to meet,” he said.When asked about American sanctions on Russia, Rubio did not commit to attempting to normalize economic ties between Washington and Moscow but indicated the embargo on Russia could be rolled back.“Sanctions are all the result of this conflict. There are sanctions that were imposed as a result of this conflict. And so I would say to you that in order to bring an end to any conflict there has to be concessions made by all sides,” Rubio explained.
Report: Ukraine Rejected Deal To Hand Half Its Mineral Wealth to US - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected a proposal for the US to take ownership of 50% of the rights to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other natural resources, Financial Times reported on Saturday.The report said the offer was made when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent visited Ukraine last week. While Zelensky rejected the initial offer, he has expressed openness to a rare earth deal with the US and is reportedly working to negotiate a better deal.White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said that by rejecting the US proposal, Zelensky was “being short-sighted about the excellent opportunity the Trump administration has presented to Ukraine.”Zelensky’s main demand for a deal is for robust security guarantees from the US and Europe. A person familiar with the proposal delivered by Bessent told Financial Times it only referenced the US getting mineral access for past military assistance and didn’t include an offer for future US support.NBC News reported that Trump administration officials have suggested an openness to deploying US troops to Ukraine to guard US-owned natural resources if there is a peace deal with Russia, although Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has ruled out the idea of a US deployment to the country.Russia has also said it wouldn’t accept any presence of foreign troops, saying peacekeepers could only be deployed under a mandate from the UN Security Council.President Trump has repeatedly called for a rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine, saying he needs to “secure” the money the US has poured into the proxy war. In a recent interview with Fox News, the president suggested he wanted $500 billion in natural resources from the country.Over the weekend, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) credited himself with convincing Trump to pursue Ukraine’s rare earth minerals. “The main thing for me is that Ukraine has value — literally has value,” Graham toldPOLITICO. “Trump now sees Ukraine differently … I said these people are sitting on a gold mine … I showed him a map, ‘look!’”Back in 2019, Graham convinced Trump to keep US troops in Syria by showing the president a map of oil fields in US-occupied areas. Trump later said that he decided to stay in Syria to “secure the oil.”
Is Trump Poisoning the Prospects of Negotiation With Russia Over Ukraine with His Minerals Deal? – Yves Smith - Most commentators took the Trump talk of owning or getting rights to Ukraine’s minerals to be bluster. Yours truly remarked otherwise, that this looked like a way for Trump to justify and get funding for a continued US participation, even if at a lower level than under Biden, by presenting it as a loan. This would make it the bastard cousin of the Ursuala von der Leyen plan to issue bonds against Russian frozen assets to which it does not have good title. But this approach would appeal to Trump by virtue of first, creating an option (options have financial value) and second, making possible Trump posturing about continuing the war seem dimly credible by providing a way to get funding through Congress. Even if the US and its Western allies can only dribble arms to Ukraine out of current production, more money would allow it to continue to prop up the regime in Kiev. Today we have the Financial Times reporting, as its lead story, that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant showed up in Kiev like a Mafia bagman, demanding that Ukraine pay bigly for protection. Note that even though the article, now the lead story in the Financial Times, is titled Ukraine rejects Trump bid to take rights to half its mineral reserves, the text indicates that Zelensky is being so pressured by the US that he is in more of a delaying operation. As you will see, he is trying to get Europeans in, if nothing else to dilute the US position and give him the possibility of playing one party off against the other. We pointed out earlier that Zelensky’s survival skills have been underestimated. From the pink paper:Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected a US proposal to take ownership of around 50 per cent of the rights to his country’s rare earth minerals and is trying to negotiate a better deal, according to several people familiar with the matter. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered Zelenskyy the deal during a visit to Kyiv on Wednesday, which came after Trump suggested the US was owed half a trillion dollars’ worth of Ukraine’s resources in exchange for its assistance to the war-torn country. Zelenskyy wants American and European security guarantees to be tied directly to any deal on the mineral reserves, according to three people familiar with the US-Ukraine negotiations…. Speaking to reporters before he and Zelenskyy discussed the deal privately for roughly an hour, Bessent described it as an “economic agreement” with Kyiv to “further intertwine our economies”. The Trump administration would “stand to the end [with Kyiv] by increasing our economic commitment” which would “provide a long-term security shield for all Ukrainians” once Russia’s war is over, Bessent said. “When we looked at the details there was nothing there [about future US security guarantees],” another Ukrainian official told the FT…. Bessent argued that the mere presence of Americans securing the mineral deposits’ sites would be enough to deter Moscow….Zelenskyy has not signed the deal because he wants to get others, including European nations, involved in mining the minerals too, a European official briefed on the meetings said. Let us put aside the fact that these deposits are almost certainly in most cases owned by private parties, and not either under government land or mineral rights retained by the government when land was sold. So this scheme could generate fierce litigation over Ukraine expropriating property without giving adequate compensation to its owners. Any scheme like this would throw a wrecking ball into a settlement with Russia. As many commentators have pointed out, a significant portion of the high value minerals are in land already under Russian control, such as two of the four lithium deposits. And from the gnashing of teeth when Russia recently took the secured the territory with one of them in it, I suspect the recent acquisition contains the largest deposit.That is before getting to the fact that Russia now legally regards all of the four oblasts, Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaropzhizhia, to be Russian. One assumes the land Russia has not yet occupied and cleared contains additional natural resources wealth.So what happens if Zelensky does sign an improved version of the Bessant deal, with or without European participation? Trump will insist the US has ownership and mining rights in the four oblasts that Russia regards as Russia. Russia will insist that it has maintained that Zelensky is not the legitimate leader of Ukraine and so any agreement he signs is legally void. The US will say, too bad, so sad, we get our mineral rights or no peace deal.As I have been pointing out, despite all the Russia fanboys saying that Ukraine has lost the war, that is not correct. Even though Ukraine seems doomed and looks to be bleeding out, it is still standing.And as lawyers are wont to say, possession is 9/10th of the law. The Ukraine government still controls most of Ukraine. Russia has not gotten to the point that Clausewitz depicts as the end state: destroying the enemy’s fighting forces and being able to get the enemy to do their will.Now this harebrained scheme may go the way of Trump’s ethnic cleansing disguised as luxury development in Gaza plans. But Trump is still, despite rejection and condemnation, still trying to move that program forward. Having Bessant show up to try to bully Zelensky is a show of seriousness.The Europeans would be likely to conspire with the US to get Zelensky to hock his country’s resources if it would really keep the US in the game. Given the rough treatment by Hegseth and J.D. Vance at the Munich Security Conference, the sane assessment would be to doubt that. But the desperate grasp at any hope.The simple point here is that if I can see how a minerals deal would fatally complicate any US exit from Project Ukraine, the Russians are sure to be way ahead of me on what this could mean. Even if the US would not be inclined to deal in bad faith, or alternatively demand what the Russians would see as unreasonably high concessions, it introduces another big hairy mess into what already was set to be difficult to consummate. It further suggests that the US is ambivalent about walking away from a lost cause. Both elements further reduce the already low odds for a negotiated settlement.
Trump Says Ukraine Should Hold Elections - On Tuesday, President Trump called for elections to be held in Ukraine and said it was an idea coming from him, not the Russians. “We have a situation where we haven’t had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law, essentially martial law in Ukraine, where the leader in Ukraine, I mean, I hate to say it, but he’s down to 4% approval rating,” Trump told reporters.It’s unclear where Trump got the 4% number, but a poll conducted in Ukraine in November 2024 found that just 16% of Ukrainians would vote to re-elect Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and 60% of respondents said they didn’t even want him to run.“If Ukraine wants a seat at the table, wouldn’t the people have to say – it has been a long time since they had an election?” Trump said. “That’s not a Russian thing, that’s something coming from me and coming from many other countries also.”Zelensky’s term in office expired in May 2024, but he remained in power since he didn’t hold elections. Ukraine’s parliament has also been due for an election since October 2023.Ukrainian officials have justified not holding elections by pointing to Ukraine’s constitution, which prohibits a vote during martial law. Martial law was first declared when Russia invaded and has been extended since.However, Zelensky made it clear at one point that he could have held an election if he wanted to, suggesting that it could happen if the US and other Western countries paid for it. But, the Biden administration did not put any pressure on Zelensky to hold an election and helped justify the decision.The president also went after Zelensky over his complaints that Ukraine was excluded from the talks between the US and Russia that occurred earlier in the day in Saudi Arabia, which Trump said went very well.“Today I heard, ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited,” Trump said. “Well, you’ve been there for three years. You should have ended it — three years. You should have never been there. You should have never started it. You should have made a deal.”
Trump says Zelensky ‘should have never started’ war with Russia - President Trump on Tuesday appeared to blame Ukraine’s leaders for the three-year war with Russia, arguing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “should have never started it.” Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, after massing troops on the border and demanding a ban on Ukraine ever joining the NATO alliance. The invasion took place nearly a decade after Russia took over Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Trump vowed to end the war during his presidential campaign and on Tuesday repeated his claim that the war would never have started if he had been president. He spoke after U.S. and Russian officials met in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine officials. “I think I have the power to end this war. And I think it’s going very well,” Trump told reporters at Mar-a-Lago on the heels of the meeting between U.S. and Russian officials. “But today I heard, ‘Oh, well we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years,” Trump continued. “You should’ve ended it in three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal. I could have made a deal for Ukraine that would have given them almost all of the land, and no people would have been killed, and no city would have been demolished and not one dome would have been knocked down. But they chose not to do it that way.” Trump went on to rail against former President Biden as “so pathetic” before again criticizing Zelensky. “Look, you have leadership — and I like him personally. He’s fine. But I don’t care about personally. I care about getting the job done. You have leadership now that’s allowed a war to go on that should have never even happened, even without the United States.” Trump’s comments came after three of his senior administration officials met with their Russian counterparts earlier Tuesday in Saudi Arabia to discuss mending relations between the two powers and ending the war in Ukraine. The meeting marked a dramatic shift in U.S.-Russia relations.
Senate GOP dismayed by Trump, Zelensky war of words -- Public comments from President Trump blaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for Russia’s invasion of his country are unnerving Senate Republicans, who have largely sought to avoid conflicts with the White House. Trump’s escalating war of words with the Ukrainian leader comes as hawks in both parties plead with the president not to give Moscow a free pass in talks to end the bitter three-year conflict. “I’m concerned with anything that would ultimately allow there to be a moral equivalency between Zelensky and Putin,” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who visited Ukraine alongside a pair of Senate Democrats over the weekend and toured parts of suburban Kyiv that have been ravaged by fighting. He also pushed back on Trump’s criticism of Zelensky on Wednesday, when he took to Truth Social and called the Ukrainian president a “dictator without elections” who was doing a “terrible job.” “Zelensky is frustrated, but he’s also been the right head of state for the time. He’s kept a nation together focused on Russian occupiers, and I think we should give them a fair amount of credit for that work,” Tillis said. Trump and Zelensky have a tumultuous relationship dating back to Trump’s first term, when a phone call between the two led to Trump’s first impeachment. A testy back-and-forth has quickly escalated after Ukraine was left out of talks between U.S. and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia earlier this week, drawing a rebuke from Zelensky. Trump responded Tuesday with unfounded allegations that Zelensky “started” the war, with the Ukrainian leader responding Wednesday that the U.S. president was living in a “web of disinformation.” Trump sent his angry Truth Social post hours later. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said later in the day she had “tremendous admiration” for Zelensky, who has “courageously led his country” during the war. “We must remember that the instigator of this war was President Putin, who launched an unprovoked attack on Ukraine,” she added. The jabs between Trump and Zelensky have put Senate Republicans in a difficult position, given their sympathy for the plight of Kyiv and record of support for aid to the war-torn country. So far, criticism has been qualified, with calls to give Trump space to seek a breakthrough in the grinding war.
MSM Melts Down Over 'Jaw-Dropping Pivot In US Foreign Policy' After Trump Ripped 'Dictator' Zelensky -- Much as expected, President Volodymyr Zelensky is reeling in the wake of President Trump's Tuesday evening words from Mar-a-Lago wherein he blasted critics of his Ukraine peace initiative, including Zelensky himself. Responding to a reporter's question about Zelensky and his European partners demanding a seat at the table in any negotiations with Moscow, Trump had said, "You’ve been there for three years. You should’ve ended it in three years. You should have never started it." But perhaps the most personally insulting words aimed at Zelensky on Tuesday was when Trump ripped him for canceling elections with no movement on democracy or toward making peace with Russia. "We have a situation where we haven't had elections in Ukraine, where we have martial law ... the leader in Ukraine, I hate to say it, but he's down at 4% approval rating... the country has been blown to smithereens... the country looks like a massive demolition site," he said.Zelensky hit back Wednesday, telling a Ukrainian broadcaster that Trump lives in a disinformation bubble. The Ukrainian leader specifically referenced Trump's words from the day prior repeatedly asserting that the war "should never have started." He said Trump's team needs "more truth" and followed with: “Unfortunately, President Trump – I have great respect for him as a leader of a nation that we have great respect for, the American people who always support us – unfortunately lives in this disinformation space," Zelensky said. He further suggested (in a clear throwback to the debunked 'Russiagate' narrative of US Democrats) that it is Russia that's feeding Trump falsehoods on the conflict and situation in Ukraine.As expected the reaction from mainstream pundits and Ukraine's backers to Trump's Wednesday post decrying Zelensky as a "dictator" who "better move fast" on striking a peace deal and holding elections or else "he won't have a country left" has been swift and fierce.The 'fact-checkers' are also out in force, for example with the NY Times quickly putting out a piece entitled "Trump Falsely Says Ukraine Started the War With Russia. Here Is What to Know." They want the public to know why "the country isn’t holding elections." And below is what CNN's frontpage is currently displaying, reviving the old debunked 'Russiagate' talking points of supposedly 'parroting Russian talking points'. Many are using this moment to draw a line in the sand, describing Trump as in a state of "madness" and saying it's time for the world to unambiguously side with Zelensky, as did this German/Greens party member of European Parliament:The only possible reaction to this madness is to openly and unambiguously side with President @ZelenskyyUa and his people. This time vis-a-vis a country and superpower you never could have imagined you would have to.And Puck News' co-founder Julia Ioffe is dumbfounded and outraged: "What I cannot understand is why the American establishment and its institutions are folding so quickly. What are you people so afraid of? You never even had gulags," she wrote in an emotional appeal on X.There's also the absurd accusations that Trump has 'switched sides' - after Zelensky strongly suggested earlier that Russia is feeding him 'disinformation'...„Mr. Trump is in the middle of executing one of the most jaw-dropping pivots in American foreign policy in generations, a 180-degree turn that will force friends and foes to recalibrate in fundamental ways.“https://t.co/1fGguKnKSb And the reaction from the neocons has been predictably loud: "Trump’s characterizations of Zelensky and Ukraine are some of the most shameful remarks ever made by a US President. Our support of Ukraine has never been about charity, our way of life at home depends on our strength abroad," John Bolton wrote.
Trump: Zelensky ‘has no cards,’ ‘shouldn’t be at meetings’ with Russia President Trump lashed out at Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday, saying he did not think it was important for Zelensky to attend negotiations about the war in Ukraine. Trump acknowledged in a Fox News Radio interview with Brian Kilmeade that Russia attacked Ukraine but still suggested former President Biden and Zelensky shared blame for failing to talk down Moscow. “I’ve been watching for years, and I’ve been watching him negotiate with no cards,” Trump said of Zelensky. “He has no cards. And you get sick of it.” “So, I don’t think he’s very important to be at meetings, to be honest with you,” Trump added. “He makes it very hard to make deals.” Trump suggested Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to reach a deal to end the war in Ukraine. He claimed Putin did not necessarily have to negotiate a ceasefire, because if he wanted, he’d get “the whole country.” “Every time I say, ‘Oh, it’s not Russia’s fault,’ I always get slammed by the fake news,” Trump told Kilmeade. “But I’m telling you, Biden said the wrong things. Zelensky said the wrong things. They got attacked by somebody that’s much bigger and much stronger.”Trump has become increasingly critical of the Ukrainian leader, in recent days calling him a “dictator without elections,” claiming he was doing a “terrible job” and falsely suggesting he was the one who started the war with Russia.Trump administration officials met with Russian officials in Saudi Arabia earlier this week to start talks about ending the war. Zelensky had expressed frustration that Ukrainian officials were not involved in the discussions. Trump administration officials have pushed for Ukraine to accept a deal that would give the United States a stake in Ukraine’s rare mineral supply, arguing the economic agreement would create an incentive for the U.S. to provide security guarantees for Kyiv. Zelensky has said he was presented with the proposal last week with little notice or time to assess the deal. “President Zelensky is going to sign that deal, and you will see it in the very short term,” national security adviser Mike Waltz said Friday morning at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). After the Kilmeade interview, Trump again chided Ukraine during remarks to a bipartisan group of governors at the White House. “I’ve had very good talks with Putin,” he said, and “not such good talks with Ukraine.”
‘Starmer Says He's Ready To Put British Troops in Ukraine as Part of Peace Deal - British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Sunday that he was ready to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine as a security guarantee for a potential future peace deal with Russia.“I do not say that lightly. I feel very deeply the responsibility that comes with potentially putting British servicemen and women in harm’s way,” Starmer wrote in The Telegraph.Starmer also said that any peace deal must include security guarantees from the US. “US support will remain critical, and a US security guarantee is essential for a lasting peace because only the US can deter Putin from attacking again,” he said.The British leader said he was meeting with President Trump in the coming days and working with the US “to help secure the strong deal we need.” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has already ruled out the idea of sending US troops to Ukraine as part of any deal and said if a peacekeeping force is deployed, it must be a non-NATO mission.The Telegraph reported on Monday that Germany is expected to reject Starmer’s proposal for a European troop deployment to Ukraine. The report said there’s a split among European countries, with the UK and France supporting the idea and Poland and Germany less likely to participate.The Kremlin said there are no serious discussions about a peacekeeping deployment despite all the talk from European leaders. “As of now, no substantial discussions have taken place on this issue,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday.Peskov also said the idea was “challenging” since it would involve the deployment of troops from NATO countries. “These are NATO member states, so if their troops were deployed in Ukraine, it would present significant complications,” he said.Russia’s envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, has previously said that Moscow would consider any foreign troops deployed to Ukraine that are not under the authority of the UN Security Council legitimate targets of the Russian military.Small numbers of British special operations forces have been on the ground in Ukraine throughout Russia’s invasion, but the presence has not been officially acknowledged by London. The Discord leaks revealed that as of March 2023, there were 50 British troops inside Ukraine.
European powers demand military build-up at emergency Paris summit on Ukraine - The major European powers held an crisis summit yesterday in Paris after US officials threatened to cut Europe out of Trump’s talks with Russia over Ukraine in Riyadh. After Trump announced global tariffs on goods including from nominal US allies in Europe, and Vance denounced opposition to far-right populist parties as a “danger within” Europe, it is apparent that the Atlantic alliance between the United States and Europe is breaking down. In Paris, European heads of state discussed plans for a doubling or tripling of military spending under conditions where they fear they can no longer rely on the United States. Plans for troop deployments to Ukraine, posing the threat of total war with Russia, face overwhelming popular opposition, as do plans to finance military spending by social cuts, like 2023 pension cuts that provoked mass strikes in France. Yet European governments are doubling down on policies massively rejected by workers. The vast scope and antidemocratic character of European governments’ policies point to the broader significance of Trump’s return to office. Trump rules as a fascist—calling to annex entire countries, plunder $500 billion in Ukrainian natural resources, carry out mass deportations of immigrants, and impose savage social cuts. However, the European powers’ pursuit of their own imperialist interests is so unpopular that it also requires a turn towards authoritarian, police-state rule. The Paris summit disinvited many European governments, mostly seen as too close to Trump or to the Kremlin. Hungarian, Romanian, Czech and Slovenian officials all protested their exclusion from the summit; far-right Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban called those attending the summit as “frustrated” leaders “who do not want peace.” Nonetheless, the summit proceeded: German, British, French, Italian, Spanish, Polish, Dutch and Danish officials arriving at the Elysée presidential palace yesterday afternoon. Afterwards, NATO Secretary-General and former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte spoke to the press, proposing a European ground intervention in Ukraine in line with French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal last year. Europe, Rutte said, is “wanting to put troops in Ukraine post a peace deal.” Discussing this still entirely hypothetical peace deal, Rutte added, “Europeans [are] willing to step up, getting positively engaged, including with troops if necessary, but clearly with an American backup—so no troops on the ground, but a backup—enabling such efforts.” Posting European troops on Russia’s borders, though Rutte cynically presented them as part of a “peace deal” between Trump and the Kremlin, means preparing broader war on Russia. This emerges concretely in media discussion of the US “backup” the European powers are demanding for intervention in Ukraine. They want US support in intelligence operations to identify Russian targets for attack, and to protect European troops from Russian air strikes. Sources in the French general staff told Le Figaro it is planning deployments of European forces equivalent to an army corps to Ukraine, with France sending an armored brigade. Le Figaro cited defense analyst Yohann Michel: “Without US support, Europeans lack resources for key capacities such as intelligence and air defense… Until now, part of the management of the Ukrainian battlefield has been carried out in Washington.” While the Trump administration may refuse to provide the backup Rutte is asking for, European powers are responding not by shelving war plans. Rather, they aim to raise military spending so they can ultimately block attempts by Washington to cut them out of the division of the spoils in the region by waging war themselves. Echoing Trump’s demands that Europe spend 5 percent or more of its economy on the military, European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has called for a “considerable” strengthening of EU militaries. At last weekend’s Munich Security Conference, she said: “Our defense spending has gone from barely €200 billion before the war to over €320 billion. We still need to augment this number considerably.” EU Defense Commissionner Andrius Kubilius has called for a €500 billion increase in EU military spending, pointing out that every 1 percent of its economy that it devotes to war is “€200 billion more” for the military. If financed simply by cutting other spending, this would mean roughly doubling the cuts to non-military state spending imposed in Europe during the austerity offensive against the workers since the 2008 Wall Street crash. A mood of profound crisis hung over the Paris summit, which was marked by deep and public divisions between the major European powers. However, they are united on a class line: War is to escalate, with the costs to be borne by the workers. The conflicts in ruling circles are an inter-imperialist struggle over profits and strategic influence. While Paris and EU officials including von der Leyen call to buy arms from EU defense contractors, Berlin and Warsaw are buying arms from US, South Korean or Israeli manufacturers. There are also divisions over whether to finance war solely via austerity, or to also rely initially on joint EU borrowing or private loans from wealthy oligarchs. Most clearly, there are sharp divisions over when to send European troops into Ukraine.
Report: European Military Chiefs Propose Sending 30,000 Troops to Ukraine - The Times reported on Wednesday that European military chiefs have proposed a plan to deploy 30,000 troops to Ukraine to provide security guarantees as part of a potential future peace deal.The report said the UK and France are leading the discussions about deploying a “reassurance” force to Ukraine, an idea that’s been firmly rejected by Moscow. In response to the report, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Russia’s opposition to the deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine.Peskov pointed to recent comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who said the “presence of armed forces from NATO countries [in Ukraine]… is completely unacceptable to us.”US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has also ruled out the idea of a NATO deployment to Ukraine, saying if a peacekeeping force is deployed, it must be a non-NATO mission. But the British and French plan envisions the US providing support for the European deployment.The Times report reads: “A US backstop, which is deemed essential for the plan, would likely be based on the ‘extraordinary strength in air power’ that NATO countries have. It could be in the form of US aircraft based in Poland and Romania, subject to the agreement of President Trump, an official suggested.”The report comes after British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he was ready to send British troops to Ukraine. While Starmer is eager, others doubt the British military is really up for the deployment. Lord Danatt, head of the British Army from 2006 to 2009, has said the British military is too “run down” to lead the mission.“Our military is so run down at the present moment, numerically and as far as capability and equipment is concerned, it would potentially be quite embarrassing,” Danatt said. “If we were to deploy 10,000 troops each rotation for six months, that would effectively tie up 30,000 or 40,000 troops, and we just haven’t got that number available.”
Russia Dangles Arctic Oil to Lure Back U.S. Firms -The Kremlin is signaling that it’s once again open for business with American oil companies—if the political winds shift. Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev told reporters ahead of talks in Saudi Arabia that Moscow sees a return of U.S. firms as inevitable, arguing that American majors once thrived in Russia and they would be unwise to ignore the opportunity again. The pitch comes as Russia faces mounting pressure to fill the void left by Western oilfield services giants like Halliburton and Baker Hughes, which exited after sanctions took hold. While President Putin has ordered the development of domestic drilling and exploration technologies, Russian experts admit the country remains critically dependent on Western equipment. Hydraulic fracturing technology, vital for boosting well output, is still sourced from “unfriendly” countries, with key components like rotary steerable systems being 100% imported. Dmitriev emphasized that joint U.S.-Russia projects, particularly in the Arctic, would be mutually beneficial. For now, ExxonMobil remains the only major U.S. oil firm tied to Russian assets, albeit under strained circumstances. The company was forced to abandon its stake in the Sakhalin-1 project after sanctions hit, yet Moscow has twice extended the deadline for the sale, now pushing it to 2026. While the Kremlin is offering access to vast natural resources, Western firms will be weighing the risks. Russia’s reliance on foreign technology and ongoing economic isolation make reentry anything but simple—even with a warm invitation.
Russia and US eye joint Arctic energy projects after Saudi talks - Russia and the United States discussed possible cooperation on energy projects in the Arctic at a meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, a top Russian negotiator told POLITICO.Kirill Dmitriev, who heads the state-owned Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), said the economic conversations had been about broad strokes, but that the two sides had discussed some “specific areas of cooperation.”“It was more a general discussion — maybe joint projects in the Arctic. We specifically discussed the Arctic,” Dmitriev said by phone as he boarded a flight home after the talks in Riyadh.The negotiations, which sidelined Ukraine and Europe, have sparked angst and urgency in key European capitals as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin look set to decide on Ukraine’s future without substantial input from Kyiv or its Western allies.
US Abruptly Cancels Media Conference After Zelensky Met With Trump's Ukraine Envoy --Retired US Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, is in Kiev where on Thursday he had an (apparently) brief meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.A scheduled post-meeting news conference has been unexpectedly canceled, though no reason was immediately forthcoming, according to a Ukrainian official, presidential spokesman Serhii Nikiforov. The US side made no comment upon the presser's cancelation.The Associated Press observes, "When the meeting began, photographers and video journalists were allowed into a room where the two men shook hands before sitting across from each other at a table at the presidential office in Kyiv." What's the latest in the growing feud that led up to this?President Trump on Wednesday night continued bashing Ukraine's Zelensky, this time describing that his officialstreated Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent "rudely" during his visit to Kiev last week. Trump further said that Zelensky chose to sleep instead of meeting with the high-ranking American official to discuss the White House proposed mineral rights deal. "Zelensky was sleeping and unavailable to meet him," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. Trump exposes Zelensky's disgusting treatment of Treasury Sec Bessent, who says may scrap Russia sanctions pic.twitter.com/otuHppZFrn The Treasury Secretary had "traveled many hours on the train, which is a dangerous trip," Trump added, characterizing the whole visit as futile given the Ukrainians "told him 'no'" on the deal for America to acquire 50% of the country's rare earth minerals.Trump's anti-Zelensky rhetoric, which included him calling him a "dictator" yesterday, has grown to the point that many pundits see that the Ukrainian president's exit is nigh. Trump is pressuring Kiev for new elections, which would require parliament to change the constitution.Vice President J.D. Vance also warned Wednesday that Zelensky will only bring harm on himself should be continue 'badmouthing' President Trump. This was in reference to Zelensky asserting that Trump is living in a Russian "disinformation space".
Waltz Says Trump Is 'Frustrated' With Zelensky Over Lack of Rare Earth Deal - National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said Thursday that President Trump and other US officials were “very frustrated” with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over his recent rhetoric and for not signing a deal that would give the US access to Ukrainian rare earth minerals and other natural resources.“[Trump’s] frustration with President Zelenskyy that you heard is multifold,” Waltz told reporters at the White House. “One, there needs to be a deep appreciation for what the American people and the American taxpayer, what President Trump did in his first term and what we’ve done since. There’s some of the rhetoric coming out of Kyiv, frankly, and insults to President Trump (that) were unacceptable.”Waltz said the second reason Trump was frustrated was due to Zelensky turning down a rare earth deal brought to him by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “Our own secretary of the Treasury personally made the trip to offer the Ukrainians what could only be described as a historic opportunity. That is for America to co-invest with Ukraine in their minerals, in their resources,” he said.According to media reports, the offer Bessent brought to Zelensky would have given the US 50% of the rights to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other resources. It didn’t include any formal security guarantees, but Waltz said the US investing in Ukraine would be the “best security guarantee they can hope for. More than another pallet of ammunition.”Axios reported on Thursday that the US has offered Ukraine a new proposal on a rare earth deal that addressed some Ukrainian concerns, the details of which are unclear. Sources told the media outlet that some of Zelensky’s aides are encouraging him to sign the deal to end the spat with Trump and give him a reason to justify continued US support for Ukraine.Zelensky discussed the rare earth deal on Thursday with US special envoy Keith Kellogg, who was visiting Ukraine. After the meeting, Zelensky said Ukraine was ready for a “strong, effective investment and security agreement” with President Trump.“We have proposed the fastest and most constructive way to achieve results. Our team is ready to work 24/7,” Zelensky said. The Kellogg-Zelensky meeting came a day after Trump slammed Zelensky as a “dictator” who has done a “terrible job.” The spat between the two leaders was also related to the US holding talks with Russia without Ukraine, something Zelensky had complained about.
Visiting Netanyahu, Rubio Says Hamas Must Be 'Eradicated' - Speaking to reporters alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem on Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Hamas must be “eradicated,” a goal that would require Israel to restart its genocidal war on Gaza.“Hamas cannot continue as a military or government force, and frankly, as long as it stands as a force that can govern, or as a force that can administer, or as a force that can threaten by use of violence, peace becomes impossible,” Rubio said. “They must be eliminated. It must be eradicated.”In his remarks to the press, Netanyahu said the US and Israel shared a “common strategy” on Gaza, including when the “gates of hell will open” if all the Israeli hostages aren’t released by Hamas, repeating a threat from President Trump.“I want to assure everyone who is now listening to us: President Trump and I are working in full cooperation and coordination between us. We have a common strategy, and we can’t always share the details of this strategy with the public, including when the gates of Hell would be opened, as they surely will if all our hostages are not released, until the last one of them,” Netanyahu said.The Israeli leader also mentioned President Trump’s “bold vision” for Gaza, referring to his calls for the US to “take over” the Strip, which would involve an ethnic cleansing campaign. Netanyahu said he and Rubio discussed “how we can work together to ensure that that future becomes a reality.”Discussing Iran, Netanyahu said Israel had “dealt a mighty blow to Iran’s terror axis” and that with US support, Israel could “finish the job.”While Rubio was visiting Israel, the Israeli Defense Ministry announced it received a shipment of MK-84 2,000-pound bombs from the US. The shipment was paused by the Biden administration but released by President Trump.The Rubio-Netanyahu meeting came a day after Hamas released three Israeli hostages in exchange for 369 Palestinians being freed from Israeli jails. Trump had previously said all hostages should be released on Saturday or that Israel should open the “gates of hell” on Gaza, signaling that the US is ready to back Israel if it restarts its bombing campaign and siege. On Saturday, Trump said it was up to Israel what to do in Gaza and said the US would “back the decision they make.”While the ceasefire is very fragile, Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, insisted on Sunday that the second phase of the truce will “absolutely going to begin.” But so far, Israel hasn’t sent negotiators to discuss the second phase of the deal with mediators.Netanyahu’s office said in a statement on Sunday that Israel was sending a negotiating team to Cairo to discuss the continued implementation of phase one of the deal. The statement also said the Israeli Security Cabinet would meet on Monday to give instructions to the negotiating team on phase two. Under the deal, the talks on phase two were supposed to start on the 16th day of the ceasefire, which began on January 19.
Marco Rubio meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a meeting Monday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh. The State Department issued a statement on Rubio’s meeting with the Saudi crown prince, saying Rubio emphasized the necessity of a Gaza solution that strengthens regional security. However, the statement didn’t elaborate on how Rubio and Crown Prince Mohammed reconciled their differing opinions on Gaza’s future. Rubio has publicly supported President Trump’s plan, which involves seizing control of Gaza and displacing Palestinians, a proposal Saudi Arabia opposes. Tammy Bruce, a spokesperson for the department, said both officials talked about Syria, Lebanon, and security in the Red Sea. She did not say if Ukraine came up during the meeting. Yet the meeting comes just one day before a planned discussion between U.S. and Russian officials, also in Saudi Arabia, aimed at finding a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. The discussions planned for Tuesday in Saudi Arabia represent a significant move by the Trump administration to change U.S. policy toward isolating Moscow and are intended to facilitate a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The recent surge in U.S. diplomacy regarding the Russia-Ukraine war has prompted Kyiv and important allies to act quickly to secure their involvement, fearing that Washington and Moscow might reach an agreement that could be detrimental to their interests. France reacted to the changing U.S. policy by convening an emergency meeting with European Union nations and the U.K. on Monday to determine a course of action. Leaders of Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark and the European Union arrived at the Élysée Palace for talks on Europe’s security. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte is also attending the meeting. Meanwhile, Ukraine has urged Europe to quickly select a representative for potential talks with the U.S. and Russia on ending Kyiv’s war with Russia. “It should be a quickly made decision,” Igor Zhovkva, the deputy head of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office, told Bloomberg. “I hope right after the Paris meeting. We should act, not reflect.” U.S. officials’ trip to Riyadh comes following a phone conversation last week in which Trump and Putin decided to begin immediate talks. Trump separately spoke with Zelensky, but the Ukrainian president said Saturday his country was not invited to any meeting between U.S. and Russian officials. On Sunday, Trump told reporters Zelensky “will be involved” in the talks, but he stopped short of saying what role he would play.
US top diplomat Rubio visits the UAE after landmark talks with Russia over Ukraine war - ABC News -- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Wednesday with the leader of the United Arab Emirates, wrapping up an overseas trip that saw the highest-level outreach between the United States and Russia since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Rubio's talk with Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, also the ruler of Abu Dhabi, comes as the U.S. also tries to continue a shaky ceasefire in the Gaza Strip between Israel and the militant Hamas group.The UAE, which diplomatically recognized Israel in 2020 during President Donald Trump's first term, also has been key in mediating prisoner swaps between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Sheikh Mohammed on Monday.Rubio offered his thanks in the meeting to the UAE “for the strength and enduring nature of the relationship, one marked by strong economic ties, defense cooperation and mutual interests in regional stability,” State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a statement.The meeting included discussions on artificial intelligence, the Gaza Strip, Syria, Lebanon and the Red Sea, which had been the site of attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels until the Gaza ceasefire, Bruce added.The UAE's readout focused on comments over the Gaza Strip and the Palestinians during the meeting between Rubio, Sheikh Mohammed and Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE's foreign minister, that lasted roughly 30 minutes.The state-run WAM news agency reported Sheikh Mohammed had told Rubio “that the UAE strongly opposes any attempt to displace the Palestinian people from Gaza.”Trump has said he wants to empty Gaza permanently of its more than 2 million Palestinians, saying they would not be allowed to return and suggesting at one point he might force Egypt and Jordan to take them in by threatening to cut off U.S. aid.Sheikh Mohammed also reportedly stressed that reconstruction in Gaza be backed by a “comprehensive and lasting peace” based on a two-state solution, which would see the Palestinians have their own future state out of Gaza and the West Bank. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia have been discussed as possible sites for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, which marks its third anniversary on Monday. Saudi Arabia also has been mentioned as the possible venue for a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, providing a potential diplomatic boon to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom's de facto ruler.
CENTCOM: Five ISIS Fighters Killed by US-Backed Airstrike in Iraq - US Central Command said in a press release on Saturday that its forces backed an airstrike near Rawa, Iraq, that was launched by Iraqi Security Forces on February 12.The command claimed the strike killed five ISIS fighters and said its “initial post-strike clearance confirmed the dead ISIS operatives, various medium and small caliber weapons, grenades, suicide explosive belts, and ammunition.”The attack marks the third time CENTCOM said it backed an airstrike launched by the Iraqi government since President Trump took office on January 20. The last strike occurred on February 12 near Kirkuk, whichCENTCOM claimed killed two ISIS operatives.The US has continued military operations against ISIS in Iraq in recent years despite the government repeatedly saying it doesn’t need the US’s help against ISIS remnants. In 2024, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani called for the withdrawal of US and other foreign troops, and Washington and Baghdad entered talks about the US presence.Those talks resulted in the US and Iraq announcing a deal to officially end the mission of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition by September 2025, but it said the US will remain in Iraq under a “bilateral partnership.” The Pentagon said at the time that the US was “not withdrawing from Iraq.”
Israel Continues To Block Entry of Temporary Housing into Gaza in Violation of Ceasefire Deal - Israel has continued to block the entry of temporary housing into the Gaza Strip despite agreeing to allow the deliveries as part of the hostage and ceasefire deal, Middle East Eye reported on Monday.Under the deal, Israel agreed to allow 200,000 tents and 60,000 mobile homes in Gaza, but so far, only 20,000 tents have entered, and no mobile homes have been allowed in. Tens of thousands of mobile homes are stuck at the Rafah crossing in Egypt.The Times of Israel reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not given approval for the entry of mobile homes and construction equipment needed to clear the rubble. The report acknowledged that the movewas a “potential breach of the ceasefire.”According to Al Jazeera, a spokesman for Netanyahu admitted Israel was blocking the entry of the mobile homes, saying Israel would use “any leverage” it has to ensure Hamas releases hostages under the first phase of the ceasefire deal. But the strategy may backfire since Hamas threatened to postpone Saturday’s hostage release over Israel’s ceasefire violations.Palestinians in Gaza told Al Jazeera that mobile homes were needed due to the conditions of their tents. “Tents are flooded with rain and sewerage water. We are soaked in waste water. Our children are getting sick. Those readymade homes would solve some of our many problems,” said Umm Mohammed Selemy, a resident of north Gaza.Israeli forces have also continued to bomb and shoot Palestinians in Gaza despite the ceasefire deal, killing around 100 since the truce went into effect on January 19. The Israeli military said on Monday that its fighter jets targeted a vehicle traveling from north Gaza to central Gaza, claiming it was “on a route not approved for vehicle traffic.”A day earlier, an Israeli drone strike killed three police officers near the southern city of Rafah. Gaza’s Health Ministry said the officers were in the area to secure aid shipments.
Smotrich Claims Trump's Ethnic Cleansing Plan for Gaza Will Start 'Within Weeks' - Over the weekend, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich claimed a plan to forcibly displace Palestinians from Gaza in line with President Trump’s plans for the territory would begin in the coming weeks.“Preparations have started amongst our teams, alongside teams of the US President Donald Trump,” Smotrich said on Saturday, according to Middle East Eye.Smotrich said the plan requires two components: “One is to find countries that can receive people, and two, it’s a huge logistical operation to take such a large number of people out of here.”Trump has repeatedly called for Palestinians to leave Gaza permanently, which would require an ethnic cleansing campaign. Palestinians have rejected Trump’s plan, which also involves the US “taking over” Gaza, but Smotrich claimed they would want to leave.“I think most of them will want to,” Smotrich said. “It is a process that is going to start in the coming weeks, even if it starts at a slower pace, bit by bit it will gather speed and intensify.”Smotrich cited the massive destruction Israel has inflicted on Gaza as a reason why the Palestinians would want to leave and said it would only get worse after a “return to fighting,” signaling he expects Israel to restart its genocidal war.He has previously said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave him a guarantee that the bombing campaign and siege would resume after the first phase of the current hostage and ceasefire deal. Arab countries have strongly rejected Trump’s proposal for Gaza and are calling for a plan that allows Palestinians to remain in the territory during reconstruction.
US B-52 Bombers Fly Over Nine Countries in the Middle East - The US conducted a major flyover of bombers and fighter jets over nine countries across the Middle East, in a show of force against Iran and its allies. The Central Command (CENTCOM) mission, included aerial refueling drills and live munitions drops.CENTCOM chief Gen. Erik Kurilla declared, “Bomber Task Force missions demonstrate US power projection capability, commitment to regional security, and ability to respond to any state or non-state actor seeking to broaden or escalate conflict in the CENTCOM region.”The Air Force’s B-52 Stratrofortress bombers which led the mission are based in the UK, also involved were American F-15s and other fighters flown by unnamed partner nations. The warplanes first flew through Europe and then over nine partner nations under the CENTCOM area of responsibility, although it’s not clear which countries those were. “Live munitions drops at ranges in several partner nations” were conducted, the command explained in a news release.According to Air and Space Forces Magazine, “The B-52s involved in the Feb. 17 long-range mission over the Middle East are part of a Bomber Task Force deployed to Europe, BTF 25-2, which kicked off last week.” The show of force follows the departure of the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier strike group from the region after a two-month deployment in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Last November, Washington temporarily deployed six B-52 bombers to the Middle East, along with more fighters, which were used to carry out strikes against Islamic State targets in Syria. Reportedly, the November deployment was the first of its kind since 2019. The CENTCOM mission comes after 15 months of Israel’s genocidal war against the Palestinians, particularly those living in the besieged Gaza Strip, and Tel Aviv’s wider campaign of destruction throughout the region which saw massive bombing raids, ground invasions, and illegal occupations in Lebanon and Syria.Although President Donald Trump has indicated he would prefer inking a new nuclear deal with Iran, after he illegally exited the previous nuclear deal in 2018, he signed an executive order ostensibly reimposing his “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign, however Biden only escalated this Trump-era policy during the last four years. Additionally, recent reports in the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal, citing US intelligence, indicated Israel plans to attack Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities in the coming months with Washington’s support.This is in spite of the fact that, as the International Atomic Energy Agency, the CIA, the Pentagon, and theOffice of the Director of National Intelligence have clarified, there’s no evidence Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons, something Trump himself recently appeared to acknowledge. Israel is keen on hyping Iran’s supposed nuclear threat. Although Tehran has been a signatory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty for decades, whereas Israel is not and maintains a large stockpile of undeclared nuclear weapons. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly threatened during recent weeks that Washington and Israel will soon“finish the job” regarding Iran. A fragile ceasefire is holding in Gaza right now, amidst hostage exchanges on both sides, despite Israeli forces killing nearly 100 Palestinians in the Strip since its implementation. This has led to the cessation of Yemen’s Houthis’ attacks on Israeli targets and Israeli linked shipping in the Red Sea region as well as Washington’s undeclared war on the Houthis which only exacerbated the situation. The US and UK carried out hundreds of air strikes on Yemen over the past year, which did nothing to deter the Houthis. In fact, the group managed to launch drone and missile attacks in Israel proper, bypassing Tel Aviv’s air defenses. The Houthis have made clear that if Israel breaks the ceasefire and escalates in Gaza, as Trump has repeatedly encouraged, Sanaa’s campaign against Tel Aviv will resume.
US Proposes Sending Private Military Contractors to Southern Lebanon - The extended deadline of the Lebanon ceasefire has come and gone, and as previously confirmed, Israeli troops only left populated areas, but remained in southern Lebanon at five hilltop surveillance posts that the IDF established in the weeks leading up to the deadline. Lebanon did not accept the extension of the deadline beyond February 18, and President Joseph Aoun is reportedly in contact with both the US and France, main guarantors of the now-expired ceasefire, to do something to press Israel to withdraw. Both France and the US have submitted proposals to replace Israeli occupation forces, though neither appears to actually end the presence of foreign fighters on southern Lebanese soil. France offered to replace the Israeli troops at the IDF-built outposts with French troops, an idea which Israel quickly rejected. The US proposal appears quite different. A US diplomatic source was quoted as saying America was proposing to send private military contractors to man the IDF posts instead of Israeli forces. Lebanon is said to have opposed this suggestion.The US proposal appears to mirror what has happened in the Gaza Strip, where US military contractors, many of them former veterans of the American military, are operating a checkpoint. The checkpoint is reportedly in the Netzarim corridor.Last week, Israeli troops withdrew from that corridor, which bisects Gaza. The US contractors remain though, and Gazans trying to pass through the area to return home were warned they’d still be subject to search by the Americans. Lebanese civil defense personnel are returning to the southern villages that Israel has left, however, and some measure of normalcy may ultimately be able to return there. The Lebanese have reported recovering at least 23 bodies already from border villages, the majority from Mays al-Jabal. As troops and civilians return to more villages, it is likely that number will continue to rise.
US-Backed Kurdish SDF Agrees To Integrate Into Jolani's Syrian Army --A major agreement has reportedly been reached between the Kurdish SDF and the post-Assad Syrian government, which willreportedly include the full integration of SDF fighters into the national army. The deal also is said to have included the civil leadership in the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES).Details are still emerging about a lot of exact specifics beyond the SDF integration into the military, which has been sought since the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took over Syria and ousted the former Assad government. The deal is expected to increase the integration of AANES territory into national government institutions at least to some extent.It is an open question, however, how much autonomy the Kurds in that territory might retain. Some of the HTS leaders have ruled out the idea of giving any autonomy to the Kurds, and suggested that any role in the national government requires them to first totally disarm and submit.Integration into the Syrian Army seems well short of that position, and raises the question of how Turkey will respond to the announcement. Turkey has insisted they would invade if the SDF weren’t eliminated, and integration might be short enough of that goal that Turkey close partnership with the HTS could be impacted.SDF leader Mazloum Abdi has made comments about the potential for a deal just a day prior to these announcements. Abdi said that he was hopeful for the new HTS-led government in Syria, and promised SDF support for national stability and unity. Turkey isn’t the only potential objector here. The Kurdistan Syria Front (KSF) issued a statement very critical of SDF and the AANES deal, even though its exact terms still aren’t public. They warned that the deal undermines the legitimate rights of Kurds in Syria, and complained of a "path of compromise" the SDF and their associates have been on since October.The KSF was particularly critical of the lack of consensus with other Kurdish groups before making the deal, saying that they were undermining the appearance of a unified Kurdish stance in regional and international negotiations.
Tehran Hits Back at Netanyahu's Threat To 'Finish the Job' Against Iran - The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Monday hit back at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for threatening that the US and Israel will “finish the job” against Iran. “Threatening others is both a gross violation of international law and the United Nations Charter,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei. He added that the US and Israel could “not do a damn thing” against Iran. Referring to President Trump’s calls for a deal with Iran, Baghaei said, “You cannot threaten Iran on one hand and claim to support dialogue on the other hand.” Trump has also increased sanctions on Iran by reinstating his so-called “maximum pressure campaign.” Netanyahu made the threat against Iran while hosting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jerusalem on Sunday.“Over the last 16 months, Israel has dealt a mighty blow to Iran’s terror axis. Under the strong leadership of President Trump and with your unflinching support, I have no doubt that we can and will finish the job,” Netanyahu said.Rubio also took aim at Iran in his remarks to the press, claiming the Islamic Republic was the “single greatest source of instability in the region.”The threat from Netanyahu came after a report from The Washington Post said the US expects Israel to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months.The report, which cited US intelligence, said the idea would be to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities even though there’s no evidence Tehran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. President Trump even recently acknowledged that Iranian leadership doesn’t want a nuclear bomb.Iran is also a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which Israel refuses to sign due to its secret nuclear weapons program that the US doesn’t officially acknowledge.Zelensky Says Ukraine Will 'Not Recognize' Upcoming US-Russia Talks - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that Ukraine will “not recognize” upcoming talks between the US and Russia and denied that his country was invited to participate. “Ukraine will not accept. Ukraine knew nothing about this. And Ukraine regards any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no results,” Zelensky told reporters while visiting the UAE. The Kremlin has confirmed the peace talks with the US will be held in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. The negotiations will involve high-level Russian and American officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Zelensky denied claims from US officials that Ukraine was invited. “Ukraine will not take part in the negotiations. Ukraine did not know they were planned. And the visit to the region was planned long before the US decided to meet Russia there,” he said. Rubio arrived in Saudi Arabia on Monday, and he is expected to be joined by US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy who has been involved in some diplomacy with Russia. Lavrov will be joined by Yury Ushakov, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelensky has said that European countries should be involved in the talks, but that idea has been rejected by both the US and Russia. Lavrov said Monday that most European leaders aren’t interested in peace. “I don’t know what they could do at the negotiating table. If their aim is to cunningly extract a deceptive truce while secretly preparing for continued war—true to their habits and nature—then why invite them at all?” Lavrov said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. While it’s still unclear how the war will end, the Trump administration’s policy toward Russia is a dramatic shift from the Biden administration, which essentially cut off high-level contacts with Moscow after the Russian invasion of Ukraine despite the risk of nuclear war.
US Launches Airstrike in Somalia's Puntland, Says Two ISIS Fighters Killed - US Africa Command said in a press release that it launched an airstrike in northeast Somalia that targeted ISIS fighters, claiming that two were killed. Local officials in Somalia’s Puntland region put the death toll higher, claiming the US strike killed 16 ISIS militants. AFRICOM also claimed no civilians were harmed in the attack, but the Pentagon is notorious for hiding civilian casualties in Somalia.AFRICOM said the strike was carried out in coordination with the US-backed Somali government, which is based in Mogadishu, but Puntland is a semi-autonomous region that’s not under the control of the federal government.Brig. Gen. Mohamud Mohamed Ahmed, a spokesman for security operations in Puntland, told Voice of America that the UAE was also involved in the airstrike. “The United States government and the United Arab Emirates, both our partners supporting us in the fight against terrorists, were involved [in] the strikes on Sunday night,” he said. The strike marks the second time the US bombed Somalia under the new Trump administration. The previous strike was launched on February 1 and also targeted ISIS fighters in Puntland. Historically, the US bombing campaign in Somalia has targeted al-Shabaab, which is based in the southern and central parts of the country. Al-Shabaab was born out of a US-backed Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that toppled the Islamic Courts Union, a coalition of Muslim groups who briefly held power in Mogadishu after ousting CIA-backed warlords.ISIS, another group born out of US intervention, has gained a foothold in Puntland and is estimated to have about 500-700 fighters in Somalia. During his previous term in office, President Trump dramatically ramped up the drone war against al-Shabaab, but so far, has not targeted the group under his new administration.
China Says Trump Admin's Change To US Fact Sheet on Taiwan Damages Relations - On Monday, China reacted strongly to the US State Department removing a line from its fact sheet on Taiwan that said the US “does not support Taiwan independence,” saying the move damages US-China relations.“History cannot be tampered with, facts cannot be denied, and truth cannot be distorted. US State Department updated its fact sheet on relations with Taiwan and gravely backpedaled on its position on Taiwan-related issues,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun.Guo urged the US to “immediately correct its wrongdoings” and avoid “further severe damage to China-US relations and peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.”While the State Department fact sheet says the US “has a longstanding one-China policy,” the removal of the rejection of Taiwan independence signals the Trump administration will provide support to the Taiwanese government of President William Lai Ching-te, a member of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).Lai’s government welcomed the change, though it did not specifically mention the removal of the language about Taiwanese independence. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry told The Associated Press that it “has noted that the US State Department updated the ‘Current State of US-Taiwan Relations’ page … with text that is positive and friendly toward us, reflecting the close and amicable partnership between Taiwan and the United States.”The US formally severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan in 1979 as part of a normalization deal with China, but in recent years, the US has been increasing both military and diplomatic support for the island as part of its strategy against Beijing in the region. China has repeatedly warned that Taiwan is the first “red line” in US-China relations that must not be crossed.
DOE fires and then rehires nuclear staff -- The Department of Energy said over the weekend that it ultimately dismissed fewer than 50 employees from its branch overseeing U.S. nuclear weapons, capping several days of confusion after the agency fired hundreds of staffers only to reinstate some of them.DOE’s estimate was contested by Democrats and some current and former employees. But in an emailed statement, DOE asserted that the dismissals at the National Nuclear Security Administration involved probationary employees in “primarily administrative and clerical roles.”“The Energy Department will continue its critical mission of protecting our national security and nuclear deterrence in the development, modernization, and stewardship of America’s atomic weapons enterprise, including the peaceful use of nuclear technology and nonproliferation,” the DOE statement said. DOE’s tally comes after more than 300 people were initially laid off at NNSA before the agency’s acting director Teresa Robbins issued a memo Friday night rescinding many of those firings, according to people familiar with the matter. DOE also fired and then unfired federal workers who help run the power grid in the Pacific Northwest.
Trump removes Brown, names new Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman --President Trump has fired Air Force Gen. CQ Brown Jr., a four-star pilot, and named Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine to be the country’s next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “I want to thank General Charles ‘CQ’ Brown for his over 40 years of service to our country, including as our current Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,” Trump said in a Friday Truth Social post. “He is a fine gentleman and an outstanding leader, and I wish a great future for him and his family.” Brown was only the second African American to hold the post. Trump in the statement lauded Caine, Brown’s replacement, as an “accomplished” pilot and “warfighter with significant interagency and special operations experience.” Trump referenced Caine during his speech at the FII PRIORITY Summit in Miami on Wednesday, praising him as a “real general, not a television general.” Caine will need to be confirmed by the Senate.
J.D. Vance Met With German Neo-Nazi Party Leader Alice Weidel - Last week, Vice President J.D. Vance met with Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-chair Alice Weidel, a political leader in that party who has downplayed the significance of the Holocaust and whose party has been described by many as a neo-Nazi organization.The meeting took place while Vance visited the country, where he also spoke at a security conference taking place in Munich, issuing demands for other countries to be more open to far right political movements.AfD is designated as a “suspected extremist” organization by Germany’s government. The party is vehemently anti-immigration, particularly toward Muslim people. Its leaders have also espoused antisemitic viewpoints and have downplayed or outright denied the Holocaust.Weidel is among them. Recently, she has complained about the Holocaust being “politically instrumentalized” against her political party. She also described efforts to maintain the educational history of Holocaust as “pesky,” and visibly rolled her eyes at discussion of the historical event that involved the mass killing of millions of people by the Nazi regime.At the meeting between Vance and Weidel, the two discussed the war between Russia and Ukraine, German domestic policies, and also restrictions within the country against ultra-nationalist political parties being able to take part in elections. Vance also met with other political leaders in Germany, but his meeting with a member of the AfD is notable because of how far to the right the party is — and how giving them attention could be an attempt by the Trump administration to legitimize them.Although AfD is currently polling in second place for a nationwide election scheduled for later this month, all of the other major political parties in Germany have agreed not to form a new coalition government with the far right group. Vance is the second major figure in the Trump administration to have interacted directly with AfD. Elon Musk, head of the White House’s “Department of Government Efficiency,” has also spoken fondly of AfD, endorsing the neo-Nazi party and speaking at one of their rallies late in January — just days afterhe was accused of performing a Nazi salute multiple times during one of Trump’s inauguration festivities. Vance has also been criticized for the speech he gave in Munich last week, in which he chastised Germany and other European nations for purportedly being against free speech. Many of the statements Vance made within that speech were hypocritical, as he complained about actions supposedly taken by governments to quell free speech or a free press that President Donald Trump or the Trump administration have taken in the past. Vance, for example, chided a recent judicial decision in Romania to annul the first round of a presidential election, which resulted in a far right candidate, Călin Georgescu, advancing with the most votes. The judge in that case came to that decision from evidence showing Georgescu had benefited immensely from a mass influence campaign orchestrated by Russian actors. “When we see European courts canceling elections and senior officials threatening to cancel others, we ought to ask whether we’re holding ourselves to an appropriately high standard,” Vance said in his speech — ignoring the fact that Trump himself had tried to overturn his loss in the 2020 presidential election and had made multiple threats to do it again if he lost the 2024 race. Vance also tried to suggest that European countries were infringing on individuals’ speech rights, asserting that the Trump administration was the epitome of defending such freedoms. “In Washington, there is a new sheriff in town. And under Donald Trump’s leadership, we may disagree with your views, but we will fight to defend your right to offer them in the public square,” Vance said.
Vance and Musk Attack German Consensus on Nazis and Speech - The New York Times - The American vice president visited a concentration camp on Thursday afternoon. He laid a wreath at the foot of a statue, made the sign of the cross and paused before a memorial wall where in multiple tongues, including German and English, the words “Never Again” were written.JD Vance told reporters he had read about the Holocaust in books, but that its “unspeakable evil” was driven home by his trip to Dachau, where more than 30,000 people died at the hands of the Nazis. “It’s something that I’ll never forget, and I’m grateful to have been able to see it up close in person,” Mr. Vance said. But after Mr. Vance spoke in Munich the next day, Germany’s leaders effectively questioned if he had understood what he had just seen. Eighty years after American soldiers liberated Dachau, top German officials this weekend all-but accused Mr. Vance — and by extension, President Trump — of boosting a political party that many Germans consider to be dangerously descended from Nazism.That party, called the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is sitting second in the polls for next Sunday’s parliamentary elections, with about 20 percent of the public saying they support it. But no other German party is willing to govern with it. That’s because the AfD has at times downplayed Hitler’s atrocities. Some party members have reveled in Nazi slogans.German intelligence agencies have classified parts of the AfD as extremist. Members have been arrested in connection with multiple plots to overthrow the government. Some reportedly attended last year a gathering that included discussions of deporting not only asylum seekers, but German citizens who immigrated to the country.“A commitment to ‘never again’ is not reconcilable with support for the AfD,” Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in Munich on Saturday morning, as part of a lengthy rebuke of Mr. Vance.“This ‘never again’ is the historical mission that Germany as a free democracy must and wants to continue to live up to every day,” he said. “Never again fascism, never again racism, never again war of aggression.”Decades of German law and political practice have revolved around the belief that to prevent another Hitler from coming to power, the government must ban hate speech and shun political parties deemed extreme. The nation has an Office for the Protection of the Constitution, with intelligence tools to monitor extremists, and a constitutional court that in rare cases can ban parties entirely. Mr. Vance, like another Trump administration official, Elon Musk, has parachuted into the country’s parliamentary elections, criticizing that approach. Both men say it is time for Germans to stop policing speech and to start treating the country’s hard-right flank as the avatars of disenfranchised voters who share Mr. Trump’s opposition to large-scale immigration. The Musk and Vance prescriptions add up to perhaps the most verboten message in mainstream German politics — made all the more surprising coming from the country that Germans have long thanked for putting an end to a deeply shameful period in their history.
Vance Tells Europeans to Stop Shunning Parties Deemed Extreme - The New York Times --Vice President JD Vance urged European leaders on Friday to end the isolation of far-right parties across the continent, an extraordinary embrace of a once-fringe political movement with which the Trump administration shares a common approach on migration, identity and internet speech. The address stunned and silenced hundreds of attendees at the Munich Security Conference, a forum where top-level politicians, diplomats and analysts had gathered expecting to hear President Trump’s plans for ending the war in Ukraine and Europe’s defense against a rising Russian threat.The vice president singled out his German hosts, telling them to drop their objections to working with a party that has often reveled in banned Nazi slogans and has been shunned from government as a result. He did not mention the party, the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, by name, but directly referred to the longstanding agreement by mainstream German politicians to freeze out the group, parts of which have been formally classified as extremist by German intelligence.“There is no room for firewalls,” Mr. Vance said, bringing some gasps in the hall.He punctuated the message by meeting on Friday with Alice Weidel, the AfD’s candidate for chancellor in this month’s election, as well as other German leaders. Altogether, it was an unusual intervention in the domestic politics of a democratic American ally. The vice president offered what may be a preview under Mr. Trump of a redefinition of a trans-Atlantic relationship built on postwar bonds of stability between allied governments. Mr. Vance aggressively challenged the diplomats in the hall in Munich, telling them that their biggest security threat was not from China or Russia, but “the enemy within” — what he called their suppression of abortion protests and other forms of free speech.He made the claim at a moment when Russia was waging the largest ground war in Europe since 1945 over Ukraine. It signaled the Trump administration’s priorities — expanding the MAGA movement abroad rather than countering President Vladimir V. Putin’s aggression. Mr. Vance’s remarks echoed those of hard-right leaders across Europe and the anti-establishment messages that Russia has pumped onto social media in an effort to destabilize democratic politics in America and Europe.Mr. Trump, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Friday, called it “a very brilliant speech.”“I heard his speech, and he talked about freedom of speech,” Mr. Trump said. “And I think it’s true in Europe; it’s losing. They’re losing their wonderful right of freedom of speech. I see it. I mean, I thought he made a very good speech, actually, a very brilliant speech.”Mr. Vance is the second figure in the Trump administration to try to chip away at the efforts to isolate the far right ahead of the German elections next Sunday by attempting to destigmatize the AfD.The billionaire Elon Musk, a top adviser to Mr. Trump, endorsed the AfD late last year in a post on social media. He has publicly interviewed Ms. Weidel. And in an address to party members this month, Mr. Musk said Germany has “too much focus on past guilt.” That was a clear reference to Hitler’s long shadow, which continues to dominate mainstream German politics, including in tight legal restrictions against Nazi language.Mr. Vance’s remarks drew a furious response from German leaders across most party lines. They immediately rejected Mr. Vance’s suggestion that they should drop their firewall against the AfD, pointing to past comments by the party’s members in support of the National Socialists, or Nazis.Boris Pistorius, the German defense minister and a member of the governing Social Democrats, deviated from his planned speech on Friday afternoon to rebuke Mr. Vance.“If I understood him correctly, he is comparing parts of Europe with authoritarian regimes — this is not acceptable,” Mr. Pistorius said, drawing sustained applause. “This is not the Europe, not the democracy, where I live.”Thomas Silberhorn, a member of Germany Parliament for the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party of the Christian Democrats, also said: “This is our business. My message to the U.S. administration is: German extremists who explicitly refer to National Socialism — part of the AfD — are clearly anti the U.S. that liberated us from National Socialism.”The AfD and its members have a history of use of Nazi languageand antisemitic and racist comments, along with plots to overthrow the federal government. The party has surged to second in the polls with its call to crack down on immigration.
'AI is in its empire era' -- JD Vance's AI saber-rattling, DOGE's gutting of the government, and Silicon Valley's thirst for growth show how AI has become a tool for consolidating power. Last week, when J.D. Vance delivered his first foreign speech as vice president at an international AI summit in Paris, he took the opportunity to put forward what the New York Times called a “vision of a coming era of American technological domination.” The Times is soft pedaling what Vance really articulated: AI’s imperial age has arrived, and the US is calling the shots. It was a dark, loaded, even threatening speech, and I’d hoped to write about it sooner, but I was interviewing federal tech workers for a piece on the chaos unfolding at home. “The Trump administration will ensure that the most powerful AI systems are built in the U.S. with American design,” Vance declared on stage in Paris. “The AI future is not going to be won by hand-wringing about safety, it will be won by building—from reliable power plants to the manufacturing facilities that can produce the chips of the future.” It was as bellicose a speech as one could make about an industry currently best known for chatbots—American AI will reign supreme, Vance insisted, so Europe, India, and everyone else should get in line and forget about irksome regulations—and yet the diatribe has mostly gone under discussed by those outside the AI world. It was, after all, overshadowed almost immediately by Vance’s visit to Munich, where he scolded European nations over their speech and immigration laws and sat down with the far-right German party AfD. But the speech, with its saber-rattling, its calls to end oversight and regulation, its declaration of intent to further concentrate power, and its equating of American might with industrial AI supremacy, stuck with me. It echoed what was (and is) unfolding back home, where Elon Musk and the DOGE boys are at work excitedly gutting the federal government under the auspices of an “AI-first strategy.” And it sounded the death knell for a measured approach to AI governance by the US—or any approach to AI governance at all, really. The conference itself, which had aspired to locate an international framework for the future of AI development; well that was left in disarray, too. The US and the UK refused to sign even a non-binding declaration pledging to develop AI responsibly and sustainably. “The AI Summit ends in rupture,” Kate Crawford—a leading AI scholar and the author of Atlas of AI, and who was in attendance in Paris—tweeted as it did. “AI accelerationists want pure expansion—more capital, energy, private infrastructure, no guard rails. Public interest camp supports labor, sustainability, shared data. safety, and oversight. The gap never looked wider. AI is in its empire era.” AI is in its empire era. That feels indisputable to me. When Vance and the industry leaders like Sam Altman or Elon Musk or the DOGE lieutenants talk about “AI”, they are hardly talking about innovation anymore, they are talking about a project whose aim is to consolidate as much power as possible. AI is a twelve-figure, semi-fictive Stargate project in the Texas desert designed to inspire awe and further investment. AI is more data centers, more training data, more, more, more—despite non-American competitors like DeepSeek demonstrating that other routes are possible. They’re possible, but they’re not desirable, because the American approach to AI is empire-building. I rang Crawford after the summit, to see if she might expand on her reaction, as it struck me as key to understanding this moment. “Comparing it to the last two summits which have had a really strong focus on risk and safety, this really shifted into a different register,” Crawford told me from New York. “This was much more about, not only technological inevitability—so no questioning whether AI is useful and helpful—but really moving towards something more like a foreign investment paradigm. It’s a shift towards something which is much more accelerationist, and about maximizing profits for the private sector.”Vance is ideally suited to making this case, both representing the relentlessly pro-business Trump administration, and his former VC circle in Silicon Valley. Recall, Vance himself has invested in AI startups. And this was what led even many in the AI world to despair over the summit’s conclusion—AI safety experts were aghast at Vance’s broad sidelining of the entire movement.“You’re aware of the alignment problem, as it’s referred to in the AI world, which is that an individual AI system might become misaligned with human values and ethical values and intentions,” Crawford told me. “What we saw at the summit was a different type of alignment problem, which was a misalignment from very concentrated corporate power and the interests of civil society in general.”“That’s my big concern,” she added. “That’s the real alignment problem: This enormous transfer of wealth to the AI private sector—without guardrails, and without a commitment to governance—represents a very serious problem to the world and everyone who lives in it.” Whether consciously or not, Vance's speech posed a version of this "alignment problem," with the Trump-Vance regime proffered as its solution, naturally. criticized “hostile foreign adversaries”—read: China—that “have weaponized AI software to rewrite history, surveil users, and censor speech.”
Nissan CEO suggests production could move out of Mexico, citing Trump tariffs --Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida said if President Trump follows through on his plan to impose 25 percent tariffs on imported goods from Mexico, the company might be forced to move its production out of Mexico. During a Thursday press conference on the company’s third quarter financial results, Uchida warned of the “huge” consequences of such a tariff policy. “We are exporting a large volume to U.S., so if there’s a high tariff, this will have huge implications on our business, so we need to monitor this carefully,” Uchida said when asked about Trump’s tariff policies, according to a translation from Reuters. Uchida said the company exports a “significant number” of cars from Mexico to the United States — 320,000 units in this fiscal year alone. He floated the possibility of moving production elsewhere if the tariffs materialize. “If the high tariffs are imposed, we need to be ready for this,” Uchida said. “And maybe we can transfer the production of these models elsewhere. If this were the decision, we will think how we can make it a reality while monitoring the situation.” Trump has threatened to use tariffs liberally on imported goods, potentially sparking wide-reaching trade wars. He initially announced a 25 percent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico but agreed to delay them after those two countries announced additional actions to secure their borders with the United States. He also imposed a 10 percent tariff on all imports from China, prompting China to announce retaliatory tariffs targeting liquefied natural gas, coal, farm machinery and other products from the United States. Last Monday, Trump signed a proclamation to bolster tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States. Mexico is among the top exporters of steel to the U.S.
Trump on potential EU food imports ban: ‘Let them do it’ --President Trump on Sunday brushed off reporting that the European Union might respond to his “reciprocal” tariff policy by moving to block imports of certain American food products. “That’s all right. I don’t mind. Let them do it. Let them do it,” Trump told reporters. “They’re just hurting themselves if they do that,” he continued. “I can’t imagine it, but it doesn’t matter.” The European Commission will agree next week to explore greater import limits on certain U.S. food items made to different standards, the Financial Times reported Sunday, citing three unidentified officials.Initial targets of the import ban could reportedly include soybean crops grown in the U.S., which allow for certain pesticides that EU farmers are not allowed to use.“We have very clear signals from the parliament, very clear signals also from the member states and from our farmers: whatever is banned in the EU, it should be banned in the EU, even if it is an imported product,” European Commissioner for Health and Food Safety Olivér Várhelyi told the Financial Times in an interview last month.Trump last week signed a presidential memorandum proposing reciprocal tariffs that he maintains would crack down on unfair and discriminatory tariffs from both adversaries and allies.. The tariffs were not immediately imposed, but the signing of the memo allows his administration to begin a review process to get them started. The reciprocal tariffs would be customized for each foreign trading partner, based on five different areas: tariffs the nation imposes on U.S. products, unfair taxes imposed, cost to U.S. businesses and consumers from another country’s policies, exchange rates, and any other practices the trade representative’s office determines is unfair. White House officials said Trump wants to move rapidly on imposing the tariffs, suggesting it would be “weeks” and no longer than “a few months” until they are in place. Trump defended the reciprocal tariff policy in his remarks to reporters Sunday. “We’re having reciprocal tariffs. Whatever they charge, we charge. It’s very simple. If a certain country — like India, which is very high tariff — if they charge us X dollars, we charge them X dollars,” Trump said. “It’s a fair thing to do,” he added. “Even the media said it was fair, and it’s going to be very good for the United States.”
The Trump-Navarro blueprint for global economic warfare - US president Trump’s latest escalation of his global economic war was outlined last week under the banner of “reciprocal tariffs.” It extends far beyond what this designation seems to imply. It is not the imposition of tariffs on goods coming into the US equivalent to the tariffs which the exporting country imposes on its imports from America. That is just a small part of the overall battle plan which involves retaliation by the US against any tariffs, regulations, taxes or subsidies by any country which it deems to be detrimental to the interests of American corporations. The economic war agenda has been drawn up largely by Peter Navarro who has been designated as Trump’s senior counsellor on trade and manufacturing policy where he will work in close collaboration with the designated commerce secretary Howard Lutnick and Trump’s nominee for trade representative Jamieson Greer. Navarro, who is known as a ferocious anti-China hawk—as far back as 2011 he wrote a book titled Death by China—served in the first Trump administration. But there he was reportedly somewhat constrained by other members, including treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and National Economic Council director Gary Cohn. Last year Navarro was jailed for four months for contempt of Congress after he refused to give testimony to an investigation into the January 6, 2021, attempted coup. His defiance of Congress in defence of Trump, and his vociferous backing of Trump’s measures, particularly those directed against China, elevated him to the status of what has been called “MAGA royalty.” Citing the words of an unnamed source who it said had observed Navarro for decades, the Financial Times (FT) reported: “He’s a guy who basically sees an existential threat to the US economically, militarily, geopolitically from China. He is a guy who is super focused on that.” Free of the constraints on him in the first Trump administration, Navarro has now been let loose. The results are evident in the White House document entitled “Reciprocal Trade and Tariffs” issued on February 13. It begins with the familiar refrain that the US has been treated unfairly, leading to a persistent and large annual trade deficit, while American industries bear the brunt of unfair practices and limited access to foreign markets. This is a well-established pattern. Imperialist powers planning aggressive action always seek to present themselves as a “victim” of the actions of others—Hitler certainly drew heavily from this playbook. The document makes clear that while tariffs are raised as the first item to which the US will respond, the retaliation will extend far more broadly. Measures requiring reciprocal action include “unfair, discriminatory, or extraterritorial taxes imposed by our trading partners on United States businesses, workers and consumers, including a value-added tax.” Extraterritorial taxes refer to the attempts by government to capture some of the revenue generated by the tech giants in their country such as through a digital services tax. The issue of the value added tax (VAT), which is imposed in Europe, has been a particular target of Navarro. He has said that the European Union’s VAT is the “poster child” for the kind of measures that would be tackled by the imposition of “reciprocal” US tariffs. According to Navarro, the VAT “almost triples the EU’s tariff rate on American exports, even as it heavily subsidizes the EU’s exports.” The document specifies that the Trump administration will investigate “costs to US businesses, workers and consumers arising from nontariff barriers or measures and unfair practices, including subsidies, and burdensome regulatory requirements in United States businesses operating in other countries.” The definition of a “nontariff barrier” or “measure” underscores the board range of the reciprocal tariff retaliatory regime. Included in the definition are “any government-imposed measures or policy or nonmonetary barrier that restricts, prevents, or impedes international trade in goods, including import policies, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical barriers to trade, government procurement, export subsides, lack of intellectual property protection, digital trade barriers, and government tolerated anticompetitive conduct of state-owned or private firms.” In other words, the internal domestic policies of any government will be the pretext for the imposition of crippling tariffs if these policies are deemed in any way to adversely impact on US corporations. This goes far beyond anything that has been seen in economic history.
Not seeing a direct impact from tariffs to the lithium market: PLS CEO (CNBC video) Dale Henderson, Managing Director & CEO of PLS, formerly known as Pilbara Minerals, says global investment in lithium supply chains outside of China and South Korea is just beginning.
There's more to the US dollar pullback than just tariff optimism: NAB (CNBC video) Ray Attrill from NAB discusses the Australian dollar's reaction to U.S. president Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff plans. He also adds that there may scope for more weakness for the U.S. dollar.
CIA Expands Drone Flights Over Mexico To Hunt for Fentanyl Labs - The New York Times reported on Tuesday that the CIA under the new Trump administration has expanded secret drone flights over Mexican territory to hunt for fentanyl labs. US officials told the Times that the drone flights started under the Biden administration but quickly expanded once Trump came into office. Both Trump and CIA Director John Ratcliffe have vowed to take stronger action against Mexican cartels. Responding to the report on Wednesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said the flights were being conducted in coordination with her government. “These flights are part of the coordination … collaborations that have been going on for many years, between the United States government and the Mexican government,” she said. “Every time it is at Mexico’s request for collaboration, for information to be able to attend to security conditions. Also on Wednesday, the Trump administration designated eight Latin American cartels and gangs as “foreign terrorist organizations,” fulfilling an executive order signed by the president on his first day in office. The designation could be a step toward military action, as many Republicans are in favor of launching attacks on Mexican cartels.The Times report said the CIA drones were not authorized to use force in Mexico and that US officials don’t envision using the drones to conduct airstrikes. Bombing fentanyl labs would cause massive civilian casualties since they are often inside homes in urban areas.On top of the CIA drone flights over Mexico, the US military has also stepped up its surveillance flights on the border, but the military aircraft have not entered Mexican airspace.US officials told the Times that the US was sharing the data from its drone flights over Mexico in hopes that Mexican authorities would disable the fentanyl labs. If the labs aren’t destroyed, the Trump administration may take other actions and hasn’t ruled out the idea of special operations raids across the border, which could lead to a full-blown war with cartels that would likely include attacks on US territory.\
US Designates Mexican Cartels As "Foreign Terrorists," Signaling Financial Warfare Looms -The US State Department has designated eight Latin American drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, setting the stage for a series of legal and financial measures aimed at paralyzing command structures and financial networks of cartels to stop the drug death catastrophe in the US. "Foreign Terrorist Organization Designations of Tren de Aragua, Mara Salvatrucha, Cartel de Sinaloa, Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generacion, Carteles Unidos, Cartel del Noreste, Cartel del Golfo, and La Nueva Familia Michoacana," a notice issued by Secretary of State Marco Rubio read earlier this month. Rubio said in the notice that these cartels contain individuals who "have committed or have attempted to commit, pose a significant risk of committing, or have participated in training to commit acts of terrorism that threaten the security of United States nationals or the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States." "I have determined that no prior notice needs to be provided to any person subject to this determination who might have a constitutional presence in the United States, because to do so would render ineffectual the measures authorized in the Order," Rubio added. The designation comes about a month after President Trump issued an executive order on his first day of office to evaluate whether Mexican drug cartels could be designated as terrorist groups. "The cartels have engaged in a campaign of violence and terror throughout the Western Hemisphere that has not only destabilized countries with significant importance for our national interests but also flooded the United States with deadly drugs, violent criminals, and vicious gangs," Trump wrote in his order. In recent weeks, we have incrementally reported USAF spy planes that conducted signals intelligence operations along the US-Mexico border, Green Berets from the US Army's 7th Special Forces Group deployed on a training mission in Campeche—a Mexican port city on the Gulf of Mexico, and CIA reportedly flying MQ-9 Reaper drones over regions of Mexico dominated by heavily armed drug cartels. Analysts told Epoch Times that designating cartels with FTO paves the way for the US government to unleash financial sanctions to disrupt the command and control centers of these cartels. Then, after financial networks are disrupted, strike cartel-operated facilities... "You could go after people trafficking firearms to the cartels; you could arrest them for providing material to a foreign terrorist organization,"
Elon Musk Claims Cartels Designated as Terrorists Are Now 'Eligible for Drone Strikes' - On Wednesday, Elon Musk claimed a group of gangs and cartels the State Department has designated as “foreign terrorist organizations” could now be targeted by US drone strikes. “That means they’re eligible for drone strikes,” Musk, a close advisor to President Trump, wrote on X. The State Department designation applies to MS-13, the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, and six Mexican cartels, all organizations that operate inside the US. The FTO designations expand sanctions on the criminal organizations but do not authorize the president to use military force against them. But the move is seen as a first step toward taking military action against cartels, an idea supported by many Republicans despite the risks of blowback and bringing a hot war to American soil. In 2023, House Republicans introduced a bill to authorize the use of force against cartels and other groups “responsible for trafficking fentanyl or a fentanyl-related substance into the United States or carrying out other related activities that cause regional destabilization in the Western Hemisphere.” The broad authorization for the use of military force (AUMF) had 24 co-sponsors, including then-House Rep. Mike Waltz, who is now President Trump’s national security advisor. The US still uses the 2001 AUMF passed in the wake of the September 11 attacks to justify wars in multiple countries, bypassing the constitutional requirement for Congress to declare war, which hasn’t happened since World War II.
Trump signs order targeting any federal benefits going to those in the country illegally - President Trump on Wednesday signed an executive order intended to identify and eliminate any federal financial benefits going to immigrants who entered the country illegally, something already prohibited existing the law. The order, which was signed on Air Force One, directs federal agencies and departments to identify programs providing any financial benefits to those in the country illegally and to take “corrective action.” The order also calls for improvements to systems that verify eligibility for federal benefit programs and for any individuals who improperly receive or use federal benefits to be referred to the Justice Department and Department of Homeland Security. It’s unclear how much of an impact the order will have. Noncitizens, other than refugees, are not eligible for federal assistance through various programs, including the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program (SNAP) and cash assistance programs like Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), according to The National Immigration Law Center. The executive order acknowledges that the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 “generally prohibits illegal aliens from obtaining most taxpayer-funded benefits.” “My Administration will uphold the rule of law, defend against the waste of hard-earned taxpayer resources, and protect benefits for American citizens in need, including individuals with disabilities and veterans,” the order states. The order is in line with Trump’s broader efforts to crack down on immigration and identify what he and other White House officials have decried as fraud and waste in government spending.
Fox's Jonathan Turley decries 'prosecution' of Ocasio-Cortez over immigration webinar - Fox News contributor Jonathan Turley on Monday decried “a prosecution” of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) “for hosting” an immigration webinar.“Border Czar Tom Homan doubled down last night that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) might be prosecuted for hosting a forum on ‘Know Your Rights’ for accused illegal aliens. Such a prosecution would be an assault on free speech rights,” Turley said in a thread on the social platform X on Monday, as highlighted by Mediaite.Turley said the New York Democrat “has never been a defender of free speech” but also added that “principle demands something more from the rest of us who value the First Amendment.”Last week, Ocasio-Cortez’s Facebook page streamed a webinar on “discussing your rights when dealing with [Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)].”“Is that impeding our law enforcement efforts? If so, what are we going to do about it? Is she crossing the line?” Homan said a day later on Fox News’s “The Ingraham Angle” of the webinar.“So, I’m working with the Department of Justice and finding out. Where is that line that they cross? So, maybe AOC’s gonna be in trouble now,” he continued. The New York Democrat later mocked Homan in a post on the social platform Bluesky. “‘MaYbe shE’s goiNg to be in TroUble nOw,’” Ocasio-Cortez said. “Maybe he can learn to read. The Constitution would be a good place to start,” she added.Homan said Monday that he asked the Justice Department if efforts by Ocasio-Cortez to teach people about their rights while facing ICE is impeding the agency’s operations.
Deportation of Miami teacher exposes bipartisan character of attack on immigrants - In a chilling example of the bipartisan assault on immigrant rights, a 24-year-old Miami-Dade County middle school science teacher, a Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipient, was detained and deported to Honduras by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The school where the young man taught was not notified of his removal. He simply stopped showing up for his classes. After a few days, the school administration reached out to his family and learned that ICE had detained him. The exact reason for the teacher’s detention and deportation remains unclear. DACA recipients must regularly renew their status every two years. Detention and deportation can be triggered by failing to meet DACA eligibility requirements, such as maintaining a clean criminal record, continuing education or employment, or the timely submitting of renewal applications. The deportation took place under the Biden administration, one week before Trump’s inauguration. The cruelty of the action, depriving children of a teacher in the middle of the school year, to say nothing of the impact on the young man himself and his own family, is characteristic of the US immigration system, regardless of which party is in power. The teacher’s deportation is not an isolated incident but rather a continuation of policies that have seen Democratic administrations deport even more immigrants than their Republican counterparts. While the Trump administration’s rhetoric and policies have been ferociously hostile to immigrants, the groundwork for mass deportations was laid by previous administrations, including that of Barack Obama, who left office in 2017 with the well-deserved hatred of immigrant workers, who labeled him the “deporter in chief.” When it comes to immigration enforcement, both major corporate parties have embraced harsh deportation policies. During the George W. Bush administration (2001–2009), about 2 million individuals were deported—with annual figures rising from roughly 189,000 in FY 2001 to around 359,000 by FY 2008. President Obama deported over 3.2 million people between 2009-2017, peaking at nearly 415,000 removals in FY 2012. The first Trump administration deported just under 1 million individuals over four years—with a high of 267,000 in FY 2019, while the Biden administration certainly exceeded Trump’s total. While complete data for the final months of the Biden administration are not yet publicly available, existing reports indicate a significant increase in deportations during fiscal year 2024.
Appeals court won’t immediately revive Trump’s birthright citizenship order - A federal appeals court Wednesday evening declined the Trump administration’s request to partially revive the president’s executive order restricting birthright citizenship. The Justice Department asked the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to immediately limit a district judge’s ruling, one of multiple indefinitely blocking Trump’s order nationwide, to only the individual plaintiffs who sued in an underlying case. The three-judge appeals panel wrote in its ruling that the administration had “not made a ‘strong showing that [they are] likely to succeed on the merits’ of this appeal.” Trump’s order would restrict birthright citizenship from being extended to children born on U.S. soil to parents without permanent legal status, part of a flurry of immigration actions he signed on his first day in office. Multiple judges have found the order is inconsistent with the Supreme Court’s longstanding interpretation of the 14th Amendment. Wednesday’s ruling marks the first time an appeals court has materially weighed in on Trump’s birthright citizenship order, which has come under 10 lawsuits across the country. Though the case will continue before the 9th Circuit, the Justice Department could now seek emergency relief from the Supreme Court. The 9th Circuit panel comprised William Canby, an appointee of former President Carter; Milan Smith, an appointee of the younger former President Bush; and Danielle Forrest, a Trump appointee. Forrest wrote separately to stress that the administration had not cleared the high bar for the court’s emergency intervention. “And just because a district court grants preliminary relief halting a policy advanced by one of the political branches does not in and of itself an emergency make. A controversy, yes. Even an important controversy, yes. An emergency, not necessarily,” Forrest wrote. She went on to caution judges against issuing such weighty rulings on an emergency basis, warning that it is contributing to low trust in the judiciary. “When we decide issues of significant public importance and political controversy hours after we finish reading the final brief, we should not be surprised if the public questions whether we are politicians in disguise,” Forrest wrote. “In recent times, nearly all judges and lawyers have attended seminar after seminar discussing ways to increase public trust in the legal system,” she continued. “Moving beyond wringing our hands and wishing things were different, one concrete thing we can do is decline to decide (or pre-decide) cases on an emergency basis when there is no emergency warranting a deviation from our normal deliberate practice.” The administration filed its appeal after a federal district judge in Seattle hearing two lawsuits blocked Trump’s order and accused him of undermining the rule of law. One case was filed by four Democratic state attorneys general, while the other was brought by several pregnant mothers without permanent legal status.
Springfield, Ohio, Haitian migrants concerned about possible loss of protected status — Over 10 years ago the City of Springfield passed a resolution to welcome migrants from Haiti. It was as much a practical move as a humanitarian one as the city needed an influx of people to work after years of struggles to fill jobs. “Springfield was on a decline for quite some time and population number of things,” said city manager Bryan Heck. “We are on the rise, we’ve been on the rise.” The city’s resurgence happened with the help of thousands of migrants from Haiti, one of 15 countries that qualify for federal “Temporary Protected Status”. TPS allows migrants to come to the U.S. to fill jobs while also seeking refuge. “The Haitians that came in were hired because they were needed,” said Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine. “They need to fill jobs and they’re very reliable. They show up for work.” When Haitians arrive in Springfield from troubled conditions, they are connected to the Haitian Resource Center. The center provides vital resources such as translation services, food assistance, housing and driving class information, and, in some cases, safety from harassment. Viles Dorsainvil, operator of the Haitian Resource Center, said “hateful” people bothering the Haitians in the name of an anti-illegal immigration push have it wrong. “They are here legally,” said Dorsainil. Springfield Police did not reply to a request for comment about the alleged incidents of harassment. Dorsainil said he received threatening messages to his email inbox, accusing him of being responsible for the influx and telling him and the migrants to go back to Haiti. Many members of the community are working together to stay informed and safe. They’re also searching for answers to questions about legal status and possible deportation. The Migration Policy Institute said there are scenarios where the laws could change, where people who legally came to the U.S. could be deported. With more than 11,000 arrests made by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) since the beginning of 2025, some in the community are concerned. “For deportation or something like this, it’s a very uncertain time for them,” said Dorsainil. Dorsainil said it’s important to remind everyone, the Haitian migrants in Springfield are here legally. “They have a status and they are not criminals,” he said.
White House bans AP journalists from Oval Office amid continued Gulf dispute -The White House has announced that it is indefinitely blocking Associated Press journalists from accessing the Oval Office and Air Force One amid a growing standoff between Donald Trump’s administration and the news agency over the Gulf of Mexico’s name.The White House deputy chief of staff, Taylor Budowich, made the announcement on X, saying: “The Associated Press continues to ignore the lawful geographic name change of the Gulf of America. This decision is not just divisive, but it also exposes the Associated Press’s commitment to misinformation.”Budowich went on to accuse the 175-year-old news wire agency – whose style guidance is used by thousands of journalists and writers globally – of “irresponsible and dishonest reporting”.Budowich said he recognized that the Associated Press’s reporting was covered by the US constitution’s first amendment, which provides for the freedoms of speech and press. But he maintained that “does not ensure their privilege of unfettered access to limited spaces, like the Oval Office and Air Force One”. He added that Associated Press journalists and photographers would retain their credentials to the White House complex. According to the Hill, an Associated Press journalist was barred from attending an executive order signing ceremony in the Oval Office on Friday afternoon following the White House’s announcement. The outlet reports that a White House official told the Associated Press journalist, “No, sorry,” when the reporter tried to join the event. Friday’s announcement from the White House marks an escalation in the growing feud between the Trump administration and the Associated Press over the organization’s refusal to abide by Trump’s preference for Gulf of America and change its style on that body of water to Gulf of America.On Tuesday, the Associated Press said another one of its journalists was refused entry into an executive order signing ceremony at the Oval Office – a move described by the news agency’s executive editor, Julie Pace, as an attempt by the White House to “punish” the organization for its independent journalism.“Limiting our access to the Oval Office based on the content of AP’s speech not only severely impedes the public’s access to independent news, it plainly violates the first amendment,” Pace said.After Tuesday’s episode, Pace sent a letter to the White House, calling the White House’s decision an “alarming precedent”.A separate statement from the New York Times said it stood by the Associated Press while “condemning repeated acts of retribution by this administration for editorial decisions it disagrees with”.“Any move to limit access or impede reporters doing their jobs is at odds with the press freedoms enshrined in the constitution,” said the statement, which was reported by chief CNN media analyst, Brian Stelter. According to a 23 January style memo, the Associated Press said that it would not be changing its style on the Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America after Trump’s decision to change the body of water’s name – a move which holds authority only within the US’s federal government.
Trump says AP will be curtailed at White House until it changes style to Gulf of America -- President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he will continue to restrict The Associated Press’ access to his events and news conferences until the news outlet goes along with his renaming of the Gulf of Mexico in its reports. He acknowledged that the move was a presidential retaliation against the news agency’s editorial policy.“We’re going to keep them out until such time as they agree that it’s the Gulf of America,” Trump said, speaking to reporters who witnessed the signing of an executive order at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida estate. “We’re very proud of this country, and we want it to be the Gulf of America.”It was the first time the president himself had commented on the issue since the White House began not allowing AP to cover several of his events last week. Two journalists from AP were denied entrance to Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday; they watched a live television feed of Trump’s remarks and were unable to ask questions. Shortly after taking office, Trump renamed the international body of water, which borders the United States, Mexico and other countries and has been named the Gulf of Mexico for more than 400 years. The AP, whose influential Stylebook is the arbiter for editorial choices at thousands of news outlets and other editorial operations, said it would continue to use Gulf of Mexico and note Trump’s decision, to ensure that names of geographical features are recognizable around the world. “The Associated Press just refuses to go with what the law is,” Trump said, an apparent reference to his executive order renaming the Gulf. No law prevents the AP from choosing the style it deems fit.AP spokeswoman Lauren Easton said Tuesday that “this is about the government telling the public and press what words to use and retaliating if they do not follow government orders. The White House has restricted AP’s coverage of presidential events because of how we refer to a location.” While the AP has framed the dispute as a First Amendment issue, Trump’s team says access to its events — most of which are funded by tax dollars — is a privilege extended by invitation, and that while AP is still permitted on White House grounds, it no longer has the right to be part of pools that cover events where space is limited.
US Attorney for Southern District of Ohio fired — The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Ohio has been terminated. According to the U.S. Attorney’s Office, Kenneth L. Parker was fired Tuesday. Kelly A. Norris, first assistant U.S. Attorney, has been named the Acting U.S. Attorney for the jurisdiction. Parker was nominated in 2021 by former President Joe Biden, and was “unanimously approved” in the U.S. Senate. The outgoing U.S. Attorney for the SDOH said he has enjoyed serving in his position to serve the citizens within the jurisdiction. “It has been my highest honor to serve the people of the Southern District of Ohio as the United States Attorney,” said Parker. “There is no better feeling than to come to the office every day knowing I, along with all the prosecutors, trial attorneys, and staff, work to protect the rights, safety, and interests of the public with excellence and integrity.” Cases Parker was involved in includes, but not limited to the following: Butler County Prosecutor Michael Gmoser released a statement in light of Parker’s departure, which in part reads: “He has dedicated himself and his office to the principle we share that justice always comes first in law enforcement, the courts and life itself,” said Gmoser. “With his base in Cincinnati, the public will understand when I say he has never hit a foul ball, and he will be missed.” The SDOH serves over 5 million people in 48 Ohio counties.
Trump says he’s ordered firing of all remaining ‘Biden-era’ US attorneys -- President Trump said that he has directed the Department of Justice (DOJ) to fire all remaining former President “Biden-era” U.S. attorneys, claiming the department “has been politicized like never before.” “Over the past four years, the Department of Justice has been politicized like never before. Therefore, I have instructed the termination of ALL remaining “Biden Era” U.S. Attorneys,” Trump wrote Tuesday on Truth Social. “We must “clean house” IMMEDIATELY, and restore confidence. America’s Golden Age must have a fair Justice System – THAT BEGINS TODAY!” There are 93 U.S. attorneys, each responsible for a specific judicial district. Two districts share a U.S. attorney. In each district, they are the head law enforcement officer. The president replacing federal prosecutors is common as the new administration settles in. Last week, the acting U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York Danielle Sassoon resigned after the DOJ directed her to dismiss corruption charges against New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D). Denise Cheung, the top criminal prosecutor at the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, resigned on Tuesday after a directive to kickstart a probe into Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) funding that was greenlighted during Biden’s four-year term in the White House. On Wednesday, Trump’s White House sent around notification of termination to a number of U.S. attorneys who were appointed by Biden, Reuters reported last week.
DHS fires roughly 400 probationary employees - The Department of Homeland Security has fired approximately 400 probationary employees across the department, pledging to remove more. The firings came after the Office of Personnel Management directed agencies to fire probationary employees, typically those who have been on the job for up to one year. “Under President Trump’s leadership, we are making sweeping cuts and reform across the federal government to eliminate egregious waste and incompetence that has been happening for decades at the expense of the American taxpayer. Today’s Department of Homeland Security personnel action will result in roughly $50 million in savings for American taxpayers and incalculable value toward accountability and cutting red tape,” a DHS spokesperson said in a statement.“DHS component leads identified non-mission critical personnel in probationary status. We are actively identifying other wasteful positions and offices that do not fulfill DHS’ mission.” The $50 million in savings is just a fraction — 0.16 percent — of FEMA’s total $29.5 billion budget. Among the cuts were more than 130 employees at the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, which plays a role in helping the private sector prepare for cyberattacks, as well as physical risks.That agency previously put on administrative leave those who worked on combatting election-related disinformation.Ten employees at DHS’s Science and Technology Directorate were fired, as well as roughly 50 employees at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which oversees asylum and refugee processing as well as other moves by migrants to adjust their immigration status or seek citizenship.The biggest cuts were seen at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), where DHS said more than 200 employees on probation were terminated.FEMA responds to all declared emergencies, and according to The Washington Post, is actively responding to 100 different emergencies currently, including hurricanes Milton and Helene.
Amid layoffs at HHS, experts warn about impact on public health - The mass firings at the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) that began over the weekend continue, though it's not yet clear how many employees have been dismissed as part of the Trump administration's efforts to cut the federal workforce, or how many more will be losing their jobs in the coming days.The dismissals, which began late last week and targeted probationary employees, have hit large swaths of health professionals across the 13 divisions that operate under HHS. The New York Times reports that the toll includes 1,200 employees dismissed from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), while National Public Radio reports that 750 employees at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) received termination letters over the weekends. Probationary employees include recent hires or longer-serving staff who recently began new positions. The cuts also hit probationary employees at Food and Drug Administration (FDA) who review food ingredients, medical devices, and other products, according to the Associated Press, though the number of employees dismissed was unclear. Other affected divisions include the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), Politico reports. The AP and other outlets reported last week that as many as 5,200 probationary employees across HHS could be dismissed, based on audio from a meeting of NIH officials. CDC leadership had told staff that an estimated 1,300 employees—roughly 10% of the agency's workforce—would be losing their jobs.Among the programs that have been affected by the cuts, according to reporting by Stat, is the CDC's Public Health Associate's Program, a 2-year paid training program that assigns trainees to state, tribal, local, and territorial public health agencies to gain hands-on experience. NBC News reports roughly two dozen employees from CDC's Laboratory Leadership Service were dismissed, and the Washington Post reports that the cuts included scientists working on outbreak investigations involving skunk rabies, dengue fever, and Oropouche virus. Layoffs do not appear to have occurred yet at another program that was reportedly on the chopping block, the CDC's Epidemic Intelligence Service, whose staff members are known as "disease detectives." In addition, layoffs of nearly 1,000 employees from the Indian Health Service were quickly rescinded, according to Native News Online.In response to a query about the cuts from CIDRAP News, an HHS spokesman did not provide an estimate of how many employees have been dismissed but said the agency was "following the Administration's guidance and taking action to support the President's broader efforts to restructure and streamline the federal government." "This is to ensure that HHS better serves the American people at the highest and most efficient standard," HHS communications director Andrew Nixon said in an email. Reaction to the dismissals, and what they could mean for public health now and in the future, has been swift.Among those critical of the cuts is the American Public Health Association (APHA), which advocates for public health policies and programs at the federal and state levels. Susan Polan, PhD, APHA's associate executive director for public affairs and advocacy, said the impact on public health is "potentially dramatic," especially at when the nation is experiencing an H5N1 avian flu outbreak in poultry and dairy cattle, rising measles cases in Texas, and a tuberculosis outbreak in Kansas"We are losing people on the front lines trying to keep people healthy," Polan told CIDRAP News. "At the same time, we're losing the years of experience that exist in these agencies."Polan added that the cuts will have a ripple effect on public health response across the country. "We need these federal agencies that work with states and with communities to understand where disease is, how to prevent it, and how to react," she said. "Without these people who are working on the ground all around the country, the impact is going to be felt in communities all around the country."Polan said she's also concerned that the dismissals are going to further erode interest in the public health profession, which has already seen an exodus of professionals in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic amid an overwhelming workload and public animosity over the pandemic response. That will also be felt beyond the beltway, she noted.
Agriculture Department tries to rehire fired workers tied to bird flu response — The Agriculture Department is scrambling to rehire several workers who were involved in the government’s response to the ongoing bird flu outbreak that has devastated egg and poultry farms over the past three years. The workers were among the thousands of federal employees eliminated on the recommendations of billionaire Elon Musk ‘s Department of Government Efficiency, which is working to carry out Trump’s promise to streamline and reshape the federal government. Republican Rep. Don Bacon said the administration should be more careful in how it carries out the cuts. “While President Trump is fulfilling his promise to shed light on waste, fraud, and abuse in government, DOGE needs to measure twice and cut once. Downsizing decisions must be narrowly tailored to preserve critical missions,” said Bacon, who represents a swing district in Nebraska. The bird flu outbreak has prompted the slaughter of roughly 160 million birds to help control the virus since the outbreak began in 2022. Most of the birds killed were egg-laying chickens, so that has driven egg prices up to a record high of $4.95 per dozen on average. The federal government has spent nearly $2 billion on the response, including nearly $1.2 billion in payments to farmers to compensate them for their lost birds. A USDA spokesperson said the department “continues to prioritize the response to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)” and several key jobs like veterinarians, animal health technicians and other emergency response personnel involved in the effort were protected from the cuts. But some employees of the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service were eliminated. Up Next - FIRED Federal Workers PROTEST MUSK and TRUMP outside SPACEX and HHS headquarters" “Although several APHIS positions supporting HPAI were notified of their terminations over the weekend, we are working to swiftly rectify the situation and rescind those letters,” the department spokesperson said. Sign up for the Morning Report The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Email address By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates Politico and NBC News reported that the jobs that were eliminated were part of an office that helps oversee the national network of labs USDA relies on to confirm cases of bird flu and other animal diseases. It wasn’t immediately clear how many workers the department might be trying to rehire and whether any of them worked at the main USDA lab in Ames, Iowa. “At a time when producers are already grappling with the bird flu, the public is facing high prices, and all Americans are on edge about what broader spread of this virus could mean, the last thing the administration should have done was to eliminate these positions,” Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar said. “USDA must rehire these crucial personnel immediately.” Trump administration officials said this week that the USDA might change its approach to the bird flu outbreak, so that maybe entire flocks wouldn’t have to be slaughtered when the disease is found, but they have yet to offer many details of their plan.
Judge rules Trump administration can move ahead on mass government layoffs -A federal judge Thursday refused a group of government employee unions’ request to block the Trump administration from moving ahead with plans to dramatically reduce the federal workforce.U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper ruled that federal law mandates the unions bring their challenge before the Federal Labor Relations Authority (FLRA), which adjudicates labor relations within the federal bureaucracy, rather than a federal district court.The decision notches another victory for Trump’s Justice Department, which is defending against dozens of lawsuits challenging a broad range of the president’s executive actions, including the administration’s efforts to slash spending and reshape government agencies.“The first month of President Trump’s second administration has been defined by an onslaught of executive actions that have caused, some say by design, disruption and even chaos in widespread quarters of American society,” wrote Cooper, an appointee of former President Obama.“Affected citizens and their advocates have challenged many of these actions on an emergency basis in this Court and others across the country,” he continued. “Certain of the President’s actions have been temporarily halted; others have been permitted to proceed, at least for the time being. These mixed results should surprise no one.” The unions’ lawsuit challenged mass terminations of probationary employees, the administration’s plans for additional mass layoffs, known as a reduction in force, and its offer for most federal employees to accept a buyout.Another federal judge previously rejected an attempt to block the buyouts in a separate lawsuit, but litigation against the probationary employee firings remains ongoing after a coalition of unions filed yet another lawsuit Thursday.
Interior’s ‘Fork in the Road’ resignations: 2,700 people - Roughly 2,700 Interior Department employees accepted President Donald Trump’s “deferred resignation” offer, according to an internal email obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News. The president’s Office of Personnel Management has reported that 75,000 federal employees agreed to the “Fork in the Road” deal, which promised full pay and benefits until September, in exchange for paid leave for employees willing to leave federal service. OPM has not yet released numbers for individual agencies nor said if all of the resignations would be accepted. Interior did not comment on how the reduced staff will affect operations across its sprawling responsibilities, from managing national parks and monuments to implementing the Endangered Species Act and stewarding the nation’s vast oil and gas programs on public lands and waters. As of May 2024, Interior had about 67,000 employees, according to OPM.The huge voluntary downsizing effort, spearheaded by Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency, comes as the White House on Thursday and Friday carried out sweeping layoffs, largely targeting relatively recent hires.
Earmarks another victim of Trump spending freeze - The Delaware Center for Horticulture has often relied on its allies in Congress. The state’s senior senator, Democrat Chris Coons, secured a $500,000 grant last year to help the center plant trees in urban areas. The recently retired Democratic Sen. Tom Carper is featured in a photo on the nonprofit organization’s website. But those past alliances may be no match for the administration’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency and President Donald Trump’s order to at least pause spending he may not like. The grant, an earmark Coons landed in the annual appropriations bill for fiscal 2024, is caught up in the confusion. No project — even one a specific lawmaker inserted into a bill — appears to be immune. “We’re still figuring out the impact of the freeze on CDS requests,” said a Coons spokesperson, Will Baskin-Gerwitz, using the shorthand for congressionally directed spending, the term lawmakers started using when they returned earmarks to spending bills a few years ago. “We still haven’t gotten clarity here,” he said. In fiscal 2023, Congress designated $15.3 billion for about 7,200 earmarks. That was an increase from $9.1 billion for about 5,000 projects the prior year, according to the Government Accountability Office. In fiscal 2024, Republicans were big winners in securing earmarks. Lawmakers have yet to settle on final fiscal 2025 legislation, which would unlock billions more for transportation, water infrastructure and other efforts. In agriculture-related line items alone, funded projects have covered a broad range of local wants and needs — from trees to sewers to agricultural research. The Delaware tree-planting comes through the Forest Service’s urban and community forestry program. The question now swirling is whether those projects will receive the same kind of scrutiny from the White House that grants and contracts awarded competitively by the agencies meet. If they do, projects related to climate change, or targeted at underserved communities or promoting equity and diversity — which contradict the administration’s priorities — could have a target on them.
What environmental agency firings could mean for energy, pollution, national parks -The consequences of the Trump administration firing thousands of environmental employees from the federal government could range from worsened responses to pollution to less access at national parks, former federal officials are warning. Late last week, the administration fired thousands of “probationary” officials — those who had been employed for a relatively short period of time — at various agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Interior Department. The EPA let nearly 400 staffers go while the Interior Department lost 2,300. That’s about 3 percent of each agency’s workforce. While the job functions of those let go are not fully clear, former officials say the cuts could hamstring the agencies’ abilities to carry out their missions. “The public health is going to be at risk, and certainly environmental protection,” said Jennifer Orme-Zavaleta, who worked at the EPA for about 40 years. “If there were some kind of an environmental incident, if it was another East Palestine train wreck. We just had the wildfires in California. … It’s going to be difficult to mount a federal response to help out, and that’s going to put a huge added burden on states who are already under-resourced to deal with these things,” she said. The EPA said last week that the firings came after “a thorough review of agency functions in accordance with President Trump’s executive orders.” “EPA has followed standard protocols and procedures, ensuring impacted staff received notification of their status. President Trump was elected with a mandate to create a more effective and efficient federal government that serves all Americans, and we are doing just that,” the agency said. The EPA is in charge of protecting human health and the environment, including by setting limits on pollution and responding to contamination. Meanwhile, the Interior Department’s broad mission includes national parks, endangered species, energy development on public lands and tribal affairs. It’s not entirely clear how many staffers came from each program. The Washington Post reported that 1,000 national parks workers were fired, though the National Park Service is reinstating seasonal job offers for 5,000 people. Phil Francis, a former National Park Service official who, among other roles, was superintendent of the Blue Ridge Parkway, said that for national parks alone, the consequences of the firings could be far-reaching.
Experienced workers, not just rookies, get cut as Trump slashes probationary employees (AP) — Warren Hill spent more than two decades working at the Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, which spans 4 million acres of coastline, forests, lakes and glaciers in Alaska. Last summer, he was promoted to serve as maintenance supervisor, in addition to his roles as carpenter and mechanic. But because Hill was starting a new role, he was on probationary status when President Donald Trump ’s administration began firing thousands and thousands of federal workers who had less civil service protection. “I’m furious,” he said. “I am just a few years away from retirement, not to mention all my benefits disappeared in a flash.” Probationary employees are generally younger, with less than a year or two on the job. However, the classification can also apply to workers with much more experience who were placed on probation when they transferred between agencies or moved into a different position. Now many have been swept up in layoffs championed by Elon Musk, the billionaire entrepreneur who is advising Trump. A lot of them, including Hill, were simply in the wrong place at the wrong time. They were often terminated in cursory letters that described their services as no longer needed or accused them of poor performance even in cases where they had received positive reviews for their work. “They have no idea how many lives they are destroying and the negative economic impact they are having in our community and all the others like ours,” Hill said. The total number and experience level of probationary employees who have been fired isn’t clear.The layoffs have taken place across many agencies, including Health and Human Services, Veterans Affairs, Education, Energy, the Food and Drug Administration and the National Park Service. Roughly 2,000 employees were cut from the U.S. Forest Service, and another 7,000 people are expected to be let go at the Internal Revenue Service.Unions for federal workers filed a lawsuit Thursday to stop and reverse the layoffs, accusing the administration of the “indiscriminate firing of thousands of patriotic public servants across the country.”The Trump administration has defended its handling of probationary employees, which is part of a sweeping effort to downsize the federal government. “The probationary period is a continuation of the job application process, not an entitlement for permanent employment,” said McLaurine Pinover, a spokesperson for the Office of Personnel Management.Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, brushed off concerns about employees being falsely accused of lackluster work.“I’ve never seen a person who was laid off for poor performance say that they were performing poorly,” he told reporters on Thursday.Trump’s allies have long considered civil service protections to be an impediment to achieving his agenda, and there’s been talk about reclassifying employees to make them easier to fire. For now, administration officials have tried to push out as many as possible, either by giving them financial incentives to quit or laying off those on probationary status. “Probationary periods are an essential tool for agencies to assess employee performance and manage staffing levels,” read a memo distributed on Inauguration Day. “Employees on probationary periods can be terminated during that period without triggering appeal rights to the Merit Systems Protection Board.” Federal agencies were given four days to draw up lists of all probationary employees. Some of them were working as civilians after long careers in the military.Terri Wollenberg said she spent more than three decades in the U.S. Army and Navy before retiring and going to work at the Cedar Rapids Veterans Center in Iowa, where she remained in probationary status. She met clients at the door, confirmed schedules and assisted the center’s counselors.But last Friday, Wollenberg said her director “let me know that I was done.”“I didn’t even know I was on a list that could possibly be considered, but it appears that any one of us could be on that list,” she said.There’s no one left to do her job, Wollenberg said during a press conference organized by Iowa Democrats. “We’re not here to get rich,” she said. “We’re here to work for the citizens of the United States.”
Trump asserts power over FERC, other independent agencies - Until Tuesday afternoon, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission appeared relatively unscathed by President Donald Trump’s efforts to consolidate and expand his power over the U.S. government. Then an executive order landed at FERC’s front doorstep and those of independent regulators across Washington. Trump’s order Tuesday declares all major actions by independent agencies that regulate the economy under White House control — from FERC to the Securities and Exchange Commission to the Federal Trade Commission. It is unprecedented in its sweep, casting aside laws dating back to 1887 that were designed to shield regulators of business and energy markets from direct presidential control. In the order, Trump argues that the president has sole authority over the executive branch. The so-called unitary executive theory has long been considered fringe, and many mainstream legal scholars believe it is illegal, since Congress set up the agencies specifically to act independently.
Trump admin approves massive Texas deepwater oil project -- The Trump administration granted a deepwater port license for a major oil export terminal off Texas’ coast, bolstering its push to send U.S. energy overseas.The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration (MARAD) issued a record of decision last week to Dallas-based Sentinel Midstream, giving it the green light to build a terminal about 30 miles offshore of Freeport, Texas. The Texas GulfLink project, if completed, could fill tankers with as much as 2 million barrels of crude oil a day.“This permitting milestone is a testament to the hard work, perseverance, and expertise of the Sentinel team,” Jeff Ballard, Sentinel’s CEO, said in a statement, adding that “Texas GulfLink is now well positioned to capitalize on strong market interest and advance as the premier offshore crude oil export facility in the United States.” Sentinel officials did not respond Tuesday to questions about how much the project will cost, when it could come online and what other permits it needs in order to begin construction.
Trump’s pick to lead BLM has fought the agency in court --President Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Land Management has plenty of experience with the federal agency — including at the helm of lawsuits that accuse it of trying to restrict oil and gas drilling on public lands. Kathleen Sgamma has served as president of the Western Energy Alliance for nearly two decades as the organization has become a leader in litigation pushing for more fossil fuel production on public lands across the West. The alliance, which represents oil and gas producers in Western states, has been active in lawsuits that have challenged efforts to protect a Western prairie bird and the Biden administration’s pause on leasing public lands. It also joined a coalition of Republican attorneys general to fight a Biden administration environmental, social and governance initiative. Advertisement While oil and gas interests welcomed Sgamma’s appointment as a determined advocate for their industry, green groups said they feared she would side with energy producers. In a statement following her nomination, Sgamma acknowledged the agency has to balance multiple uses of public lands, including energy, recreation, grazing, mining and stewardship. “I look forward to leading an agency that is key to the agenda of unleashing American energy while protecting the environment,” she wrote on LinkedIn last week. Tim Stewart, president of the U.S. Oil & Gas Association, called Sgamma the most qualified BLM nominee he’s seen in 30 years, noting she knows the agency’s portfolio from wild burros to oil and gas. Sgamma has been the “tip of the spear” on public lands policy, not just for the industry, he said. “She knows how to build coalitions made up of multiple user groups,” Stewart said. “There have been times when those coalitions have had to push back legally against [Department of the Interior] overreach. This is evidence that she knows how to assemble and organize our industry plus united recreation users, cattlemen, counties and other public lands users to reach a consensus.” If confirmed, Sgamma would need to recuse herself from action related to litigation brought by the alliance, John Pelissero, the director of the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University, said in an email. “And she would be wise to not act on any future [alliance] issues to avoid creating the appearance of a conflict of interest,” Pelissero wrote. “Her role at the BLM would be to always act in the public interest, attending to the ethical standard of promoting the common good.” Neither Sgamma nor the White House responded to requests for comment.
Trump admin backpedals on public power staffing cuts - The Trump administration this weekend reversed some staffing cuts at agencies that control and distribute power from massive dams in the West, after customers warned that the purge of probationary employees could jeopardize grid reliability.News of staff reductions last week at the Department of Energy’s four power marketing administrations, or PMAs, were met swiftly with condemnation, with lawmakers and power customers warning that the moves significantly increased the risk of blackouts. PMAs sell and deliver low-cost power from federal hydroelectric dams to customers across 34 states, as well as operate transmission lines across the western United States.For example, the Bonneville Power Administration, which operates much of the electricity grid in the Pacific Northwest and sells power from 31 federal dams, was expected to lose at least 13 percent of its staff of more than 3,000 people. That included about a quarter of the BPA’s real-time power dispatchers, according to outside sources familiar with the staffing changes.Likewise, the Western Area Power Administration, which controls transmission and hydropower in a 15-state region in the central and western U.S., was expected to lose about 15 to 20 percent of its 1,500-person staff.
Trump’s oil ambitions face harsh economic and geologic realities - President Donald Trump wants to “unleash” American energy. The problem: U.S. oil production growth is starting to dwindle.The nation’s once-hot shale plays are maturing. It’s getting more expensive to get significant amounts of new oil out of the ground. Some observers expect production to level off in the coming years and then start to decline by the early 2030s.Soon enough, oil companies may need to “drill, baby, drill” just to keep up current production levels rather than boosting them. Trump is calling for “energy dominance,” yet for many in the oil patch the debate is not whether U.S. oil production is hitting its peak, but when and how fast. “We’re 17, 18 years into the U.S. shale story,” said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs, an Austin, Texas-based research firm that uses artificial intelligence to analyze the economics of wells. “It does have an end.”Right now, the U.S. oil industry is producing more crude than ever before — north of 13 million barrels a day — and the price of gasoline is slightly higher than $3 a gallon, hoveringnear a three-year low. So it may be hard to realize the type of production increases Trump suggested on the campaign trail, where he boasted that within 18 months he’d cut energy prices in half.“That presumes that you can press a button and get even more out of those rocks than ever for an extended period of time,” said Barry Rabe, a professor emeritus of environmental policy at the University of Michigan. Pulling that off, he said, is “sort of a triple bank shot.”When asked whether declining shale fields could interfere with Trump’s “energy dominance” plans, a White House spokesperson sent a statement saying “President Trump took decisive action on day one to immediately reverse the shortsighted policies of the previous administration and unleash American energy.”Nationally, oil production might creep up in the next couple of years, driven by drilling in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. But other once-booming plays in places like Colorado, South Texas and North Dakota are flat or declining.Barring a big technological revolution in drilling — some suggest leaps in AI might deliver one — the United States’ position as an oil powerhouse could be challenged in the years ahead. Some analysts say it will be 10 years or more before production starts to plateau. Others say it has already started. For its part, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted last week that the country’s oil production will grow a little more than 3 percent in 2025 to 13.7 million barrels a day, but then climb less than 1 percent in 2026. The report reversed a previous forecast that production would drop slightly in 2026. EIA’s outlook last week also suggested that Trump’s price-cutting goal might be tough to achieve. The agency projected oil prices dropping by 2026 because of reduced demand and increased foreign production, but by only about 20 percent, compared to 2024. EIA projected natural gas prices could nearly double in the same time frame.
DOE launches new attack on efficiency rules - The Department of Energy is delaying the “effective date” for efficiency standards for multiple major appliances, an action some environmentalists are calling illegal. On Wednesday, DOE posted two notices stating it was delaying the date — which kicks in when a finalized rule is put into the Code of Federal Regulations — for final standards issued during the Biden administration governing walk-in coolers and freezers and gas-fired water heaters. That followed similar delays this month in effective dates for test procedures released by Biden for central air conditioners, clothes washers and dryers, general service lamps and compressors.The move sheds light on DOE’s strategy for targeting the appliance program, a priority of President Donald Trump and Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The seven delayed effective dates affect the same appliances that DOE said on Friday it was postponing implementation of, although it did not initially delineate how it was doing so. “The people, not the government, should be choosing the home appliances and products they want at prices they can afford,” Wright said in a statement at the time. DOE described the move as a key step in undoing Biden’s “burdensome policies.”
Trump cuts hit red states, triggering GOP pushback - Republican lawmakers are pushing back against sweeping cuts to the federal government launched by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, as their downsizing crusade begins to hit GOP constituents. A growing number of GOP lawmakers are trying to intervene with the Trump administration and are weighing legislation to circumvent the changes. But with the Department of Government Efficiency and the Office of Management and Budget moving at a rapid clip and flouting federal law to carve up the government, the lawmakers face monumental challenges in getting the White House to spare their constituents from the ax. Idaho Republican Rep. Mike Simpson, a senior appropriator whose district is home to a number of National Park Service sites, said in an interview his staff is talking to the administration about how an OMB-directed, governmentwide hiring freeze will affect the National Park Service.
Panel schedules vote on disaster relief, worker relocation bills - The Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee will consider legislation this week focused on improving disaster relief for companies. The panel plans to vote on S. 300, the “Disaster Loan Accountability and Reform Act,” from Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.). The legislation, which has bipartisan support, would add reporting requirements for the Small Business Administration’s disaster loan fund. Each month, the administration would need to report details including when available funding will hit 10 percent of the most recent appropriation. The bill is intended to avoid a shortfall, which happened in October in the wake of Hurricanes Milton and Helene. The committee last week approved S. 371, the “SBA Disaster Transparency Act” from Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.). It would also address last year’s shortfall by requiring that monthly information about SBA’s disaster loan account be made available to the public.
White House says Elon Musk is not in charge at DOGE, but is advising the president (AP) — The White House says billionaire Elon Musk is not technically part of the Department of Government Efficiency team that is sweeping through federal agencies, but is rather a senior adviser to President Donald Trump. Musk’s exact role could be key in the legal fight over DOGE’s access to government data as the Trump administration moves to lay off thousands of federal workers. Defining him as an adviser rather than the administrator in charge of day-to-day operations at DOGE could help the administration as it pushes back against a lawsuit arguing Musk has too much power for someone who isn’t elected or Senate-confirmed. The declaration was filed Monday as the Trump administration fends off the lawsuit from several Democratic states that want to block Musk and the DOGE team from accessing government systems. The litigants say Musk is wielding “virtually unchecked power” in violation of the Constitution. The Trump administration, on the other hand, says Musk is not a DOGE employee and has “no actual authority to make government decisions himself,” Joshua Fisher, director of the White House Office of Administration, said in court papers. The documents do not name the administrator of DOGE, whose work Musk has championed in posts on his social-media platform X and in a public appearance at the White House. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt declined Tuesday to tell reporters at the White House who the DOGE administrator is, though minutes before she said in an interview with Fox News Channel that Musk has been tasked with overseeing the effort on behalf of the president. Layoffs, she told reporters, are up to individual agency heads. “Elon Musk, just like everybody else across the federal government, works at the direction of President Trump,” Leavitt said. The DOGE team has roamed from agency to agency, tapping into computer systems, digging into budgets and searching for waste, fraud and abuse, while lawsuits pile up claiming Trump and DOGE are violating the law. At least two are targeting Musk himself.
Trump on Musk’s title: ‘Call him whatever you want’ --President Trump on Monday dismissed questions over Elon Musk’s official title after the White House said the tech billionaire is not part of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). “Elon is, to me, a patriot. So, you know, you could call him an employee, you could call him a consultant, you could call him whatever you want. But he’s a patriot, I mean took at the kind of things,” Trump told reporters, referring to cost-cutting efforts Musk has made. Musk is an employee of the “White House Office” and serves as senior adviser to the president, according to a court filing from Joshua Fisher, director of the White House Office of Administration. Fisher said Musk “has no actual or formal authority to make government decisions himself.” The president also repeated his confidence in Musk and the DOGE team. “I asked Elon, ‘Who are these DOGE people?’ He said they’re super brilliant computer people and they love the country. It’s simple,” Trump said. Trump said that Musk will remove himself from conflict-of-interest situations when asked about DOGE and SpaceX employees working at the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Defense Department, while the federal government has contracts with Musk’s companies. “I’m just hearing about it and if there is … obviously I will not let there be any conflict of interest. He’s done an amazing job,” Trump said. “I told Elon, any conflicts you can’t have anything to do with that. So, anything to do with possibly even space, we won’t let Elon partake in that.”>
Donald Trump, Elon Musk say media trying to drive them apart -President Trump and Elon Musk, one of his top allies, argued that the mainstream media is trying to drive a wedge between them and stymie the president’s agenda. “That’s true,” Trump responded when Fox News host Sean Hannity told the president that leading outlets such as The New York Times and The Washington Post “threw everything they had at you.” “They want a divorce,” Hannity said during the joint interview with Trump and Musk, which will air Tuesday evening on Fox. “They want you to start hating each other.” “Oh, I see it all the time. They tried it, then they stopped. That was — they have many different things, hatred,” Trump agreed. Musk during the interview mentioned that he “used to be adored by the left,” but after he voiced his support for Trump at a party with friends before the election, it was like he “got shot with a dart in the jugular that contained methamphetamine and rabies.” Musk called Trump recently, the president said, after seeing news coverage of his efforts to reform the federal government. “He said, ‘You know, they’re trying to drive us apart.’ I said, ‘Absolutely.’ You know, they said, ‘We have breaking news: Donald Trump has ceded control of the presidency to Elon Musk,'” Trump scoffed. “And I say, it’s just so obvious. They’re so bad at it. I used to think they were good at it. They’re actually bad at it, because if they were good at it, I’d never be president because I think nobody in history has ever gotten more bad publicity than me.” Trump and Musk have in recent weeks ratcheted up their attacks on major newspapers and broadcast networks over coverage of Trump’s first weeks in office and Musk’s role as the head of the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Unions, tax groups sue to block DOGE's access to taxpayer data at IRS -- A coalition of unions, tax and small business groups sued late Monday to block the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from accessing personal taxpayer data at the IRS. The groups claim such access violates federal privacy and tax laws, and the case adds to more than a dozen existing lawsuits challenging DOGE’s structure or its examination of confidential systems across the federal government. “DOGE will also have access to tax records of Mr. Musk’s business competitors, which are held by the IRS. No other business owner on the planet has access to this kind of information on his competitors, and for good reason,” the new lawsuit states. Filed in a federal court in Washington, D.C., the lawsuit comes as the DOGE team is reportedly seeking access to a sensitive IRS system, known as the Integrated Data Retrieval System (IDRS), that the agency uses to see taxpayer accounts. It has become the latest part of the federal bureaucracy to be targeted by Elon Musk’s DOGE, which has rapidly implanted itself at agencies across the government as part of ambitious plans to slash trillions of dollars in spending. “While the DOGE playbook at the IRS appears to mirror every other agency it has entered, the systems at issue, and the laws that govern access to them, are not,” the lawsuit states. The case was brought by the Center for Taxpayer Rights, Main Street Alliance, the National Federation of Federal Employees and the Communication Workers of America. They are represented by the Democracy Forward Foundation, a left-leaning legal organization that has brought a dozen lawsuits against President Trump since his inauguration. Musk’s efforts have quickly sparked lawsuits from Democratic state attorneys general, government employee unions and other private groups. Earlier Monday, a judge declined to block DOGE from accessing student borrower data at the Education Department. On Friday, another judge declined to block DOGE’s access to the Labor Department, Department of Health and Human Services and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Judges are expected to rule soon on other lawsuits that seek to block DOGE at seven federal agencies and extend a block on DOGE accessing the Treasury Department’s payment systems.
DOGE sets up IRS, SEC accounts on X -- The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has set up accounts on the social platform X for the IRS and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), seeking “insights on finding and fixing waste, fraud and abuse” at the two agencies. Elon Musk, who is leading DOGE’s efforts to cut trillions of dollars in government spending, reposted messages from both accounts Monday. The new X accounts come as the DOGE team is reportedly seeking access to a sensitive IRS system, known as the Integrated Data Retrieval System (IDRS), that the agency uses to access taxpayer accounts. Two top Democrats, Sens. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), wrote to acting IRS Commissioner Douglas O’Donnell on Monday, asking for information about DOGE’s access to the sensitive IRS system and voicing concerns about potential privacy violations. “No executive order requiring agency heads to provide DOGE personnel access to IRS records or information technology systems supersedes the federal tax code,” they wrote. “Software engineers working for Musk seeking to gain access to tax return information have no right to hoover up taxpayer data and send that data back to any other part of the federal government and may be breaking the law if they are doing so,” the senators continued. Up Next - Netanyahu says he and Trump 'have a common strategy' on Gaza's future As the DOGE team has moved from agency to agency on its cost-cutting mission, it has frequently sought access to technological infrastructure, sparking concerns over data privacy and security. Late last month, DOGE staffers clashed with longtime Treasury official David Lebryk as they sought access to a sensitive federal payment system at the agency. Lebryk, who served as acting Treasury secretary before Scott Bessent’s confirmation, was placed on leave and ultimately resigned. Two DOGE-affiliated employees, tech executive Tom Krause and 25-year-old Marko Elez, received access to the system known as the Fiscal Service, which handles 90 percent of federal payments. While they were meant to receive read-only access, Elez “mistakenly” received read and write access for a brief period in early February, a recent court filing revealed. However, Elez never utilized the write privileges to make any changes to the system, a Treasury official wrote in a declaration to the court. Elez resigned shortly after, when The Wall Street Journal resurfaced several racist social media posts he made from a now-deleted account.
Trump's Goal Is To 'Abolish The IRS' As Layoffs Loom: Lutnick - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Wednesday that President Trump's goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). "Think about it, Donald Trump announces the External Revenue Service, and his goal is very simple (...) his goal is to abolish the Internal Revenue Service and let all the outsiders pay," Lutnick told Fox News host Jesse Watters. Trump has said that the External Revenue Service will force foreign trade partners to "finally pay their fair share," and has previously floated the idea of abolishing federal income taxes as part of his plans for "tariffing and taxing foreign nations to enrich our citizens."Lutnick also said that Elon Musk and DOGE were "going to cut" $1 trillion, "and then we're going to get rid of all these tax scams that hammer against America, and we're going to raise a trillion dollars of revenue." The IRS is responsible for collecting the federal taxes from individuals and corporations - taking in some $823 billion in individual taxes in 2024, roughly 52% of total revenue, according to the Treasury Department. Lutnick's remarks come as the IRS is reportedly looking to lay off thousands of workers. According to the Associated Press, the agency will start by letting go roughly 7,000 probationary workers in Washington and around the country. Those with roughly one year or less of service at the agency - largely in compliance departments - will be affected, according to the report.The layoffs are part of the Trump administration’s intensified efforts to shrink the size of the federal workforce through the Department of Government Efficiency by ordering agencies to lay off nearly all probationary employees who have not yet gained civil service protection. They come despite IRS employees involved in the 2025 tax season being told earlier this month that they would not be allowed to accept a buyout offer from the Trump administration until mid-May, after the taxpayer filing deadline.It’s unclear how the layoffs may affect tax collection services this year. As the nation’s revenue collector, the IRS was tasked during the Biden administration with targeting high-wealth tax evaders for an additional stream of income to the U.S., which is $36 trillion in debt. By the end of 2024, the IRS collected over $1.3 billion in back taxes from rich tax dodgers. -APOn Wednesday, the NY Times reported that the IRS would begin laying off roughly 6,000 employees on Thursday, and will target 'relatively recent hires which the Biden administration had attempted to revitalize with a surge of funding and new staff.' According to that report, IRS managers on Wednesday began asking their employees to bring their government-issued equipment to the office. "Under an executive order, I.R.S. has been directed to terminate probationary employees who were not deemed critical to filing season," one email reads. "We don’t have many details that we are permitted to share, but this is all tied to compliance with the executive order."According to former IRS official Dave Kautter, "There’s a flood of résumés from people at the I.R.S. looking for jobs throughout the tax community," adding "Law firms are getting a fair number of résumés, accounting firms are getting a fair number of résumés."The IRS employs roughly 90,000 people across the country.
Elon Musk's threat to Social Security benefits - The only efficiency Elon Musk cares about is how efficiently he can take your money to line his own pockets. Despite President Trump’s campaign promises, Musk is coming after your earned Social Security benefits. President Dwight Eisenhower, Republican and war hero, could have been talking about Musk when he warned in 1954 of a handful of “Texas oil millionaires” attempting to abolish Social Security. “Their number is negligible and they are stupid,” he wrote. Musk has made no secret of his disdain for our Social Security system. In just the last few weeks, he has used his gigantic platform to spread outrageous lies about Social Security. Unlike the extremely rich, stupid men to whom Eisenhower was referring, Musk is, unfortunately, not just ignorant. Trump is giving him the power to steal our earned benefits. Musk is drawing on an old playbook of claiming that the government in general, and Social Security in particular, is full of “waste, fraud, and abuse.” Then, when he steals your benefits, he will claim that he is simply cutting waste. Both Musk’s ignorance and his anti-Social Security playbook were on full display Tuesday, when the shadow president talked to reporters in the Oval Office. In trying to convince us that our extremely efficient Social Security system is rife with fraud, he unknowingly proved how economical its administration is, when he asserted, “just cursory examination of Social Security and we’ve got people in there that are 150 years old.” This is not so. The hardworking civil servants at the Social Security Administration are extremely diligent in tracking the deaths of beneficiaries. Social Security spends millions of dollars every year to purchase the automated death data of state vital records agencies. And Social Security provides a lump sum death benefit, in part to encourage the families of beneficiaries to report their deaths promptly. When beneficiaries die, their benefits are immediately terminated. Eligible survivors, if any, start to receive the benefits their loved ones have earned for them. It is important to recognize that what Musk and others label “waste” is usually unavoidable because of the way politicians have drafted our laws. For example, Social Security benefits are paid in the month following the month that they are due. That means that if you receive your benefit and then die later that same month, that is considered an overpayment — even when the death is immediately reported and the benefits immediately cancelled. The law requires the Social Security Administration to claw back those benefits from the grieving survivors — which it routinely does. No one born 150 years ago is still receiving benefits. But here is where Musk is showing his ignorance: Let’s take the example of a person who is issued a Social Security card as an infant and dies at age 10, never having received a penny of benefits. Social Security doesn’t waste taxpayer dollars finding that information and cancelling their Social Security number — this would be prohibitively expensive and wasteful. Moreover, most adults who die leave behind spouses and children, including adult disabled children, who may be eligible for benefits for many years based on the decedent’s earnings record. Therefore, that record may remain active for a very long time. For example, the last person to receive a Civil War pension was a veteran’s disabled daughter, who died less than five years ago — in 2020. Disturbingly, the reason Musk was able to assert the ignorant claim about 150-year-olds is that he has accessed our personal data. Because Musk has access to the Treasury’s payments system, he has the Social Security numbers of every worker and Social Security beneficiary. He also has our bank account numbers, and other sensitive, private information. Musk and his minions are reportedly now not just at the Treasury but also at Social Security’s headquarters in Baltimore. That means they may already have access to how much a person has ever earned, at what job, and when, how old they are, their marital status and more. Musk may also have access to the medical records of every single one of the millions of Americans who have applied for disability benefits. No unelected, unconfirmed ideologue should be anywhere near those records, especially not the wealthiest man in the world, given his numerous conflicts of interest. What is going on should be obvious. Musk wants to cut off your benefits and then have Congress use the savings to give himself a gigantic tax cut. But Social Security is incredibly popular, so he can’t be open about his intentions. Instead, he is trying to convince Americans that our Social Security system is overrun with massive fraud. The truth is the opposite. Less than 1 percent of Social Security payments are improper. And remember, that already-low percentage includes all the beneficiaries who receive a proper benefit but then die in the same month. Given that these and all other improper payments constitute less than 1 percent of all payments made, those that are the result of fraud are vanishingly small. This is in sharp contrast to private insurance. Indeed, the American Academy of Actuaries issued a report just last September about private insurance and concluded that “insurance fraud is widespread.” Ironically, the best way to stop improper payments — including those vanishingly few that result from fraud — is to adequately staff the Social Security Administration. Face-to-face transactions at your local Social Security field office will catch fraudsters. Online transactions generally won’t. Unfortunately, your local Social Security office will be closing. Musk has instructed the General Services Administration to terminate all federal office leases, including every Social Security office and every post office. Musk will do whatever it takes to avoid paying his fair share and enrich himself at our expense. He has his eyes on our Social Security. Lies about fraud might shake people’s confidence, but they are unlikely to shake people’s support for Social Security.
Social Security acting chief Michelle King steps down over DOGE access to recipient data: Reports - The Social Security Administration’s acting leader stepped down from her role over requests from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to access recipient data, according to several reports. Acting Commissioner Michelle King departed from the agency over the weekend after more than 30 years of service. She allegedly refused to provide DOGE staffers with sensitive information, The Associated Press reported.In a statement, White House spokesperson Harrison Fields noted President Trump has nominated “the highly qualified and talented Frank Bisignano” to lead the agency.“We expect him to be swiftly confirmed in the coming weeks,” Fields said. “In the meantime, the agency will be led by a career Social Security anti-fraud expert as the acting commissioner.” He added that Trump is committed to appointing “the best and most qualified” people to work on behalf of the American people, “not to appease the bureaucracy that has failed them for far too long.” The AP noted that King’s departure is one of several from high-ranking officials, as DOGE seeks access to various federal departments and agencies, including the IRS and the Treasury Department. Trump appointed Leland Dudek to lead the agency on an acting basis while Bisignano, the CEO of financial software giant Fiserv, awaits Senate confirmation. Selecting Dudek means Trump bypassed several other senior executives who were higher ranking, causing concern among employees, The Washington Post reported.“To pick an acting commissioner that is not in the senior executive service sends a message that professional people should leave that beleaguered public agency,” Martin O’Malley, the Social Security commissioner under the Biden administration, said, according to the Post.DOGE seeking access to sensitive information at the agency has sounded alarm bells, as the data collected and stored includes Social Security numbers, Medicare information and applications for supplemental income programs.About 72.5 million people, including retirees, disabled people and children, receive benefits from Social Security.
Social Security head clarifies claims about people over 100 receiving benefits -- The Social Security Administration’s acting commissioner clarified claims promoted by Elon Musk and President Trump about centenarians receiving monthly payouts. “I also want to acknowledge recent reporting about the number of people older than age 100 who may be receiving benefits from Social Security,” Lee Dudek said in a statement Wednesday. “The reported data are people in our records with a Social Security number who do not have a date of death associated with their record. These individuals are not necessarily receiving benefits.” His comments come after the president suggested millions of deceased individuals were listed as alive in the agency’s records. “If you take all of those millions of people off Social Security, all of a sudden we have a very powerful Social Security with people that are 80 and 70 and 90, but not 200 years old,” Trump stated in support of a probe by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk doubled down on the argument after gaining read access to the administration’s portal. Former acting Commissioner Michelle King resigned Tuesday over the data, citing concerns with its examination by a nonelected official. “Having tens of millions of people marked in Social Security as ‘ALIVE’ when they are definitely dead is a HUGE problem. Obviously. Some of these people would have been alive before America existed as a country,” Musk wrote on X with a screenshot of an alleged internal database showcasing citizens who are at least 100 years old. Reports have outlined a processing issue with the COBOL code used by the administration that means it does not properly annotate death information, according to The Associated Press. However, all of the people listed in the national system do not receive monthly benefits.
Judge refuses to block DOGE's access to student borrower data --A federal judge Monday evening declined to block Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from gaining access to Education Department data on student borrowers. U.S. District Judge Randolph Moss ruled that the University of California Student Association (USCA), which brought the lawsuit, had not shown sufficient irreparable harm to receive such immediate relief. “Because the Court concludes that UCSA has failed to clear that essential hurdle, the Court’s analysis also ends there,” wrote Moss, who was appointed by former President Obama. “The Court leaves for another day consideration of whether USCA’s has standing to sue and has stated a claim upon which relief may be granted. Those questions are less clear cut and are better answered on a more complete record,” Moss continued. Musk’s DOGE has moved rapidly since President Trump’s inauguration to install employees at federal agencies with an aim of cutting trillions of dollars in government spending, quickly drawing legal challenges. The student government raised alarm that Musk’s team would be able to access students’ personal data, including tax information, submitted to the Education Department as part of federal financial aid applications. The lawsuit claims the access violated federal privacy laws. “ED and DOGE staffers are obligated to use UCSA members’ information for lawful purposes within the mission of the Department of Education and to keep it confidential, in accordance with the Privacy Act, tax laws, and other federal law,” Moss noted in his ruling.
Trump order expands his power over independent agencies — President Donald Trump signed an executive order that would fundamentally reshape the executive branch, bringing independent agencies more firmly under the control of the White House in a move that could have sweeping consequences for bank regulation. President Trump's new executive order could have dramatic implications for bank regulation by subjecting agencies to White House political control.
Trump issues executive order asserting absolute authority over independent federal agencies -- In an executive order issued Tuesday evening, President Donald Trump asserted absolute authority over federal agencies created by Congress that were intended to have a degree of independence from the White House. Embracing the most extreme version of the so-called “unitary executive” theory put forward by the late Justice Antonin Scalia, Trump claims that any congressional restriction on presidential control of the executive branch is unconstitutional. The order asserts that independent agencies like the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Election Commission (FEC) must be directly subordinated to the president in both their decision-making and their financial resources, and names Russell Vought, director of the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB), to be their overseer. The language of the order is a chilling declaration of quasi-dictatorial power, stating: all executive departments and agencies, including so-called independent agencies, shall submit for review all proposed and final significant regulatory actions to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) within the Executive Office of the President before publication in the Federal Register. It continues, mandating the OMB director to “provide guidance on implementation of this order to the heads of executive departments and agencies,” to “establish performance standards and management objectives for independent agency heads,” and to “report periodically to the President on their performance and efficiency in attaining such standards and objectives.” In effect, the directors and boards of these “independent” agencies will be nothing more than junior employees of Vought, who will act for Trump, setting their budgets and the scope of their jurisdiction, and overruling their actions if they should clash with Trump’s dictates. Section 7 of the executive order specifically prohibits the general counsels for these agencies from making any interpretation of the law that contradicts that set by the White House. It reads: The President and the Attorney General, subject to the President’s supervision and control, shall provide authoritative interpretations of law for the executive branch. The President and the Attorney General’s opinions on questions of law are controlling on all employees in the conduct of their official duties. No employee of the executive branch acting in their official capacity may advance an interpretation of the law as the position of the United States that contravenes the President or the Attorney General’s opinion on a matter of law, including but not limited to the issuance of regulations, guidance, and positions advanced in litigation, unless authorized to do so by the President or in writing by the Attorney General. This begs the question why any of these agencies should have attorneys on their staff at all, since they are bound hand and foot by the legal interpretations set by the White House and Attorney General Pamela Bondi. The executive order is based the theory of the “unitary executive,” long derided by historians and constitutional scholars, regarded as a fringe theory cooked up by Scalia and the Federalist Society, the organization of right-wing lawyers and judges from which Trump selected every one of his court nominees during his first term. This “theory” repudiates the 90-year-old Supreme Court precedent, set in the Humphrey’s Executor case, which held that Congress had the power to set up independent agencies whose directors were not replaced with each new administration in the White House but could only be fired for cause, such as misconduct in office. While Scalia’s successors in the fascist wing of the Court, like Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, have indicated their desire to overturn the Humphrey’s ruling, claiming that Article II of the Constitution makes the president the sole possessor of the whole power of the executive branch, this position falls apart upon the slightest historical analysis. The Constitution was clearly written with the intention of making Congress, not the president, the most powerful branch of government. Congress legislates, and the president is charged with faithfully executing those laws, not making the laws himself.
Trump EO Puts FERC, SEC, Other Agencies Under White House Control-- Marcellus Drilling News - Two days ago, President Trump signed yet another executive order, this one called “Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies.” We’ve lost count of how many he’s signed! This latest EO is a really, hairy, big deal. This EO gives the president sweeping control over the budgets, policies, and regulations of independent U.S. agencies that oversee the energy sector, financial markets, trade, and transportation. Agencies like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Predictably, the left is shouting, “Dictator!” They are in full meltdown mode. The right is arguing the 50+ “independent” agencies created by Congress (but nominally under the Executive Branch) are an unelected bureaucracy not accountable to anyone—not to the President, not to Congress, and not to the courts. If this EO stands, it will fundamentally remake our federal government. That’s not hyperbole.
DOGE says it has saved government $55B so far -- The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in a post on its website says it has found $55 billion in savings through a combination of efforts, including a reduction in the federal workforce. It said it estimated it had realized $55 billion in savings by canceling or renegotiating leases and contracts, selling assets, cancelling grants, finding regulatory savings, making programmatic changes to the government and reducing the workforce. The U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is listed as the top saving where DOGE found total contract savings and contract savings as a percentage of the federal government, accounting for about $6.5 billion in savings. Musk and his DOGE team quickly moved to dismantle that agency, which provides food to those in need around the world, in his first month in office. The next two departments listed were the Department of Education, which accounted for nearly $502 million in savings, and the Office of Personnel Management (OPM). Other top agencies that DOGE said it had cut contracts from include the Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Agriculture (USDA), Department of Homeland Security (DHS), General Services Administration (GSA), Department of Commerce, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. When ordered by cuts as a percent of the overall budget, DOGE said USAID was followed by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), and the Executive Office of the President. Other agencies in that category included the GSA, Department of Education, OPM, DHS, Department of Commerce, EPA and USDA. DOGE included a “wall of receipts” to highlight what contracts were cut and how much it saved an agency. Its receipts included ending media subscriptions to Bloomberg Government, Politico, and the Washington Post from the CFPB budget. Savings from subscriptions were nearly $30 million, according to the receipts. It also outlined ended real estate leases, including a State Department office in Miami, Department of Justice office in Cincinnati and a GSA office in Illinois. Savings from leases were over $144 million. Additionally, the receipts showed that savings from cuts to programs related to diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives were over $199 million. The website listed 1,126 contacts, with $16.4 billion in savings, and 97 real estate contracts, with $144.5 million in savings, not providing evidence for about $38 billion in cuts out of the $55 billion.
DOGE says it's saved $55B; data show much less -- The federal cost-cutting effort dubbed the Department of Government Efficiency says it has saved $55 billion in federal spending so far, but its website accounts for only $16.6 billion of that.
Trump floats using DOGE savings to pay Americans, pay down debt -- President Trump on Wednesday said his administration is considering using some of the money saved from Elon Musk and his team slashing government spending to pay down the federal debt and potentially cut checks to Americans. Trump addressed attendees at the Future Investment Initiative (FII) Institute gathering in Miami, where he touted efforts led by Musk and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to root out “government waste, fraud and abuse.” “There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20 percent of the DOGE savings to American citizens, and 20 percent goes to paying down debt, because the numbers are incredible,” Trump said. DOGE, which is not a formal government agency, claimed earlier this week that it had identified spending cuts that amounted to $55 billion in savings. But it’s not clear where all of those savings have come from. DOGE posted on its website a list of federal contracts it said it had canceled, but those contracts total about $8.6 billion in savings, according to ABC News. Trump and Musk have also exaggerated about some claims of fraud they have highlighted. Musk has previously acknowledged that not all of his statements will be correct and that they “should be corrected.”The White House has claimed tens of millions of deceased people have received fraudulent Social Security payments. But Social Security Administration data shows there are fewer than 100,000 people over the age of 100 who receive checks.Trump on Wednesday also repeated a popular claim among conservatives that the government had spent millions to provide condoms in Gaza. That claim has been repeatedly debunked. The president offered praise for Musk, who has been at the forefront of DOGE’s efforts to slash government spending and dramatically reduce the size of the federal workforce. “He’s a seriously high IQ individual,” Trump said of Musk, who was seated in the front row at Wednesday’s conference. “Now he’s got his faults also, I will tell you that. But not too many of them.”
Speaker Johnson discourages DOGE stimulus checks idea— Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) threw cold water on the idea of using savings from the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) government-slashing activities to send checks to Americans. That marks a break from President Trump and tech billionaire and Trump adviser Elon Musk, who have floated the idea in recent days. Asked about the idea by Newsmax host Rob Finnerty on the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) stage Thursday, Johnson was less than enthusiastic. “Well, look. I mean, politically that would be great for us, you know, it gives everybody a check,” Johnson said. “But if you think about our core principles, right, fiscal responsibility is what we do as conservatives. That’s our brand. And we have a $36 trillion federal debt, we have a giant deficit that we’re contending with. I think we need to pay down the credit card, right?” Johnson said. The crowd responded with applause.
The Purge of the Deep State and the Road to Dictatorship – Chris Hedges - The Trump administration’s war with the deep state is not a purgative. It is not about freeing us from the tyranny of intelligence agencies, militarized police, the largest prison system in the world, predatory corporations or the end of mass surveillance. It will not restore the rule of law to hold the powerful and the wealthy accountable. It will not slash the bloated and unaccountable spending — some $1 trillion dollars — by the Pentagon. All revolutionary movements, on the left or the right, dismantle the old bureaucratic structures. The fascists in Germany and the Bolsheviks in the Soviet Union, once they seized power, aggressively purged the civil service. They see in these structures, correctly, an enemy that would stymie their absolute grip on power. It is a coup d'état by inches. Now we get our own.Rearguard battles — as in the early years of the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany — are taking place in the courts and media outlets openly hostile to Trump. There will be, at first, pyrrhic victories — the Bolsheviks and the Nazis were stalled by their own judiciaries and hostile press — but gradually the purges, aided by a bankrupt liberalism that no longer stands or fights for anything, ensures the triumph of the new masters. The Trump administration has expelled or fired officials who investigate wrongdoing within the federal government, including 17 inspectors general. Federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies, such as the FBI and Homeland Security, are being purged of those deemed hostile to Trump. Courts, as they are stacked with complaint judges, will be mechanisms for the persecution of state “enemies” and protection rackets for the powerful and the rich. The Supreme Court, which has granted Trump legal immunity, has already reached this stage.“The original purge after the Shah’s fall sought to rid the ministries of senior-level holdovers from the former regime and to provide the revolutionary faithful with jobs,” reads a declassified CIA memo, dated Aug. 28, 1980, on the then newly formed Islamic Republic of Iran. “The second wave of purges began last month after a series of Khomeini speeches. Lower-level individuals who had been part of the Shah’s bureaucracy, those with Western training, or those who were deemed to lack full Revolutionary fervor have been retired or fired on an increasingly large scale.” We are repeating the steps that led to the consolidation of power by past dictatorships, albeit with our own idiom and idiosyncrasies. Those naively lauding Trump’s hostility towards the deep state — which I concede did tremendous damage to democratic institutions, eviscerated our most cherished liberties, is an unaccountable state within a state and orchestrated a series of disastrous global interventions, including the recent military fiascos in the Middle East and Ukraine — should look closely at what is being proposed to take its place. The ultimate target for the Trump administration is not the deep state. The target is the laws, regulations, protocols and rules, and the government civil servants who enforce them, which hinder dictatorial control. Compromise, limited power, checks and balances and accountability are slated to be abolished. Those who believe that the government is designed to serve the common good, rather than the dictates of the ruler, will be forced out. The deep state will be reconstituted to serve the leadership cult. Laws and the rights enshrined in the Constitution will be irrelevant.“He who saves his Country does not violate any Law,” Trump boasted on Truth Social and X.The chaos of the first Trump administration has been replaced with a disciplined plan to throttle what is left of America’s anemic democracy. Project 2025, the Center for Renewing America and the America First Policy Institute compiled in advance detailed blueprints, position papers, legislative proposals, proposed executive orders and policies.The legal cornerstone for this deconstruction of the state is the unitary executive theory, articulated by Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia in his dissenting opinion in the case of Morrison v. Olson. In Scalia’s opinion, Article II of the Constitution means that everything not designated as legislative or judicial power must be executive power. The executive branch, he writes, can execute all the laws of the United States outside of everything that is not explicitly given to Congress or the judiciary in the Constitution. It is a legal justification for dictatorship.Although the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 does not use the term “unitary executive theory,” it advocates for policies that align with the theory’s principles. Project 2025 recommends firing tens of thousands of government employees and replacing them with loyalists. Key to this project is the weakening of labor protections and rights of governmental employees, making it easier for them to be fired at the behest of the executive branch. Russell Vought, the founder of Center for Renewing America and one of the key architects of Project 2025, has returned as director Office of Management and Budget, a position he also held in Trump’s first term.
DOGE Deep-State Demolition Path Evident In Soaring DC Jobless Claims The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose very modestly to 219k last week - still hovering around multi-decade lows But, amid DOGE's demolition of the Deep State, we note one region that is seeing initial jobless claims soar this year... The District Of Columbia... Source: Bloomberg DC is the major standout year-to-date in terms of percentage rise in jobless claims... But California dominated the decrease in jobless claims last week, while Kentucky and Tennessee saw the biggest rise... Meanwhile, continuing jobless claims continue to hold near 4 year highs around 1.9 million Americans... Source: Bloomberg So, for now, the decline of employment in DC is NOT knocking into the rest of the US economy - does that mean they were completely unproductive?
Trump says federal government should ‘take over’ DC -- President Trump on Wednesday said the federal government should “take over the governance” of Washington, D.C. “I think that we should govern the District of Columbia,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. “I think that we should run it strong, run it with law and order, make it absolutely flawless.” Trump praised the District’s police department and said he gets along “great” with Mayor Muriel Bowser, who met with Trump after the 2024 election. Still, he railed against the conditions of the city, pointing to crime and the homeless population. “The federal government should take over the governance of D.C. and run it really, really properly,” Trump said. “And I like the mayor, I get along great with the mayor, they’re not doing the job – too much crime, too much graffiti, too many tents on the lawns, there’s magnificent lawns and there’s tents. It’s a sad thing, homeless people all over the place. We’ve gotta take care of the homeless. “But we can’t have that in Washington, D.C. When they come in to see me – like Macron is coming, the prime minister of the UK is coming, all these people coming over to see me,” he continued. “We’ll have ultimately President Xi, we’ll have everybody. … You can’t let that happen.” The District is governed by a council of elected representatives and a mayor. A 1973 law stipulates that Congress reviews all legislation passed by the D.C. Council before it becomes law. The president also appoints the District’s judges. Trump's whirlwind first month leaves heads spinning Next Stay Trump has clashed with Bowser in the past, particularly during the coronavirus pandemic and racial justice protests that jolted the District in 2020. He has repeatedly criticized the city’s appearance, suggesting it reflects poorly on the nation’s capital. The Washington Post reported last week that the White House is preparing an executive order to increase penalties and enforcement of violent and petty crimes in the District, clear homeless encampments and remove graffiti.
Watch: Trump signs executive order at Mar-a-Lago expanding IVF -President Trump gave a press briefing Tuesday afternoon while in Florida. The president was slated to sign an executive order expanding access to in vitro fertilization (IVF). “The Order directs policy recommendations to protect IVF access and aggressively reduce out-of-pocket and health plan costs for such treatments,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt wrote on the social platform X. Trump is at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla., after attending the Daytona 500 race over the weekend.Since returning to the White House last month, the president has signed dozens of executive orders, including banning transgender people from serving in the military, stripping funding from schools that require COVID-19 vaccines and ending birthright citizenship. Later on Tuesday, an interview with anchor Sean Hannity alongside tech billionaire Elon Musk will air on Fox News. The pair is expected to tout their controversial work with the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to shrink the size and scope of the federal government.
Editorial urges RFK Jr. to focus on vaccines amid Texas measles - The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board published an op-ed Monday calling on Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to set aside his anti-vaccine activist positions in light of the nearly 50 measles cases that have been confirmed among mostly unvaccinated children in Texas. “We are on record as skeptical of RFK Jr.’s nomination. The Senate confirmed him. Now the best-case scenario would be for Mr. Kennedy to internalize that he is no longer an activist outsider who needs to take provocative potshots to get attention,” the Journal’s editorial board wrote. As of last week, 48 children in the South Plains region of Texas have confirmed cases of measles, and 13 have been hospitalized. The disease is so transmissible that up to 9 out of 10 people who come into contact someone with measles can be infected, according to the National Foundation for Infectious Diseases. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, all the children who have been infected are either unvaccinated or have unconfirmed vaccination statuses. The department has stated “additional cases are likely” due to how contagious measles is. “The tragedy is that this doesn’t have to keep happening. In 2000 measles was declared eliminated from the U.S., meaning 12 months with no continuous spread,” the Journal’s op-ed read. “Yet for some people, the reality of measles feels like a sepia-toned history lesson, whereas the antivax hooey featured on podcasts these days sounds current,” the Journal added. “RFK Jr., an environmental lawyer by trade, has long been part of the problem, and at his Senate confirmation hearings he presented himself as just asking questions, man. That undersells his role in spreading doubt and confusion.” The op-ed additionally noted the falling vaccination rates among kindergarteners in recent years. All states and D.C. require vaccinations for school attendance, but exceptions are often permitted. During the 2023-2024 school year, vaccination coverage among U.S. kindergarteners fell to 92.7 percent when it came to the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine. Federal health authorities have long maintained a “Healthy People 2030” target of achieving 95 percent MMR immunization coverage. This level of coverage is considered ideal for maintaining herd immunity in a population. Whether this aim for vaccine coverage will continue now remains unclear as Kennedy, a longtime vaccine skeptic, has signaled he will prioritize work on chronic illnesses as opposed to infectious disease.
RFK Jr. eyes childhood vaccine schedule review, says ‘nothing off limits’ in HHS meeting --A new presidential commission will scrutinize the childhood vaccine schedule as a potential cause of the country’s chronic disease epidemic, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told HHS staff during a closed-door meeting on Tuesday. “Nothing is going to be off limits,” Kennedy added of his push to “Make America Healthy Again,” according to a video viewed by The Hill. President Trump launched a new MAHA commission last week with an executive order and put Kennedy at its helm. The commission was tasked with developing a strategy around children’s health within the next six months. Kennedy urged his new staff to drop any preconceived notions of who he is, but also said he wouldn’t stop asking “difficult questions” that have led to “a lot of unpopular conclusions.” “Some of the possible factors we will investigate were formally taboo or insufficiently scrutinized. Childhood vaccine schedule, electromagnetic radiation, glyphosate, other pesticides, ultra-processed foods, artificial food allergies, SSRI [anti-depressants] and other psychiatric drugs, PFAS, PFOA, microplastics — nothing is going to be off limits,” Kennedy told staff Tuesday. During his confirmation hearing, Kennedy tried to distance himself from his past statements and positions as a vaccine skeptic. But he also refused to disavow his efforts to promote a thoroughly debunked link between vaccines and autism, despite pleas from Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). Trump administration halts 'Catch and Release' Program Kennedy said he would admit he was wrong if “shown the data.” But even when Cassidy did just that, Kennedy cited additional studies — of dubious merit — that favored his conclusion, leading Cassidy to note that Kennedy was always asking for more, never accepting the mountains of evidence that already exist. Sign up for the Morning Report The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Email address By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates Cassidy ended up voting to confirm Kennedy after he said he received assurances from Kennedy about not undermining vaccine safety efforts. During his speech Tuesday, Kennedy seemed to repeat his promise about admitting error if he sees data that proves him wrong. “I promise to listen to all the stakeholders … including the ones, especially the ones with whom I’ve disagreed in the past. I promise to keep an open mind,” Kennedy said. Kennedy’s remarks come as federal agencies are reeling from the Trump administration’s mass firings of HHS staff, including from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, and the Food and Drug Administration.
Trump expands RFK Jr.’s influence beyond HHS - President Donald Trump backed newly confirmed Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s goals to tackle chemicals with a broader scope than the department’s purview. At issue is an executive order Trump signed on the heels of Kennedy’s swearing-in for his new job. That order appears to nullify sentiments that Kennedy’s influence would be limited to HHS, isolated from policy decisions at EPA, the agency with the authority to ban pesticides or restrict uses of dangerous chemicals found in the environment. The executive order establishes the “Make America Healthy Again” commission and its goal of “ending childhood chronic disease” in part by addressing toxic chemicals in the environment, foods and medicines. Kennedy, a former environmental attorney, would chair the commission, whose members will be officials from at least a dozen agencies, including EPA. That could be a good thing for environmentalists who sympathize with some of Kennedy’s positions on the long-term health risks from pollutants and separating federal research from industry influence.
Scheduled meeting of CDC vaccine advisers postponed - The upcoming meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) has been postponed. The committee, which advises the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on US vaccine policy, had been scheduled to meet February 26 to 28. But the meeting has been postponed "to accommodate public comment in advance of the meeting," according to a statement from a Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) spokesman. "The ACIP workgroups met as scheduled this month and will present at the upcoming ACIP meeting," HHS communications director Andrew Nixon said in an email. But Nixon did not respond to a question about when the meeting will be rescheduled.The postponement was first reported by Stat. According to a draft agenda of the meeting, ACIP advisers were scheduled to discuss and vote on the use of newly approved meningococcal and chikungunya vaccines, as well as new recommendations on flu and RSV vaccines. The group had also planned to review data on human papillomavirus, mpox, and COVID-19 vaccines. The CDC bases its vaccine recommendations and adult and child immunization schedules on ACIP recommendations. The postponing of the ACIP meeting comes amid concerns that newly confirmed HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine critic, could make changes to the group, or get rid of it altogether. Kennedy has suggested in the past that ACIP members have conflicts of interest. Politico reports that Kennedy is planning to remove some members of outside committees that advise the federal government on health issues, and that ACIP is among the committees likely to be targeted. Prior to Kennedy's confirmation, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), a physician and key member of the committee that advanced Kennedy's nomination to the full Senate, said Kennedy had made several assurances on vaccines to win Cassidy's vote. Among them was a promise to uphold ACIP recommendations.
Senate confirms Kelly Loeffler to lead SBA - The U.S. Senate confirmed former Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler as administrator of the Small Business Administration Wednesday in a 52-45 vote. No Republicans opposed Loeffler, though two GOP senators did not vote. One Democrat, Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen, voted for Loeffler. The former Georgia senator and entrepreneur, who promised to combat red tape and fraud in her confirmation hearing, takes office following a 52-45 vote.
Corporate media bosses bow to Trump demands - The first month of the Trump administration has seen a full-scale cave-in by the corporate media, in which major newspapers and television and cable networks have bowed to the demands of the fascist president, muzzling or firing journalists viewed as his critics and backing away from any serious defense of freedom of the press. In Hitler’s Germany, this process of bringing the media into line with government dictates was part of what the Nazis called gleichschaltung: the systematic coordination of all social institutions with the policies of the ruling party and the will of its führer. It was accomplished with considerable violence, as storm troopers attacked and destroyed the offices and presses of the trade unions and the Social Democratic and Communist parties. In Trump’s America, the first stage of the disciplining of the media to the requirements of the new administration has been accomplished without open violence, although the billionaires who control the corporate media have used plenty of economic coercion to suppress criticism of Trump’s policies, let alone open dissent. There has been a series of high-profile departures of media personalities, some of them identified with a critical attitude to Trump, others apparently declining to stay on board as the MAGA flag is run up the mast by their corporate bosses. These include Paul Krugman and Charles Blow at the New York Times, Jim Acosta at CNN, and Chuck Todd at NBC/MSNBC. The departures began even before the election, when several editorial writers quit the Washington Post and Los Angeles Times after their billionaire owners, Jeff Bezos and Patrick Soon-Shiong, intervened to block planned endorsements of Democratic candidate Kamala Harris over Trump. Hundreds of staff members signed letters of protest over these actions. Following the election, Disney, the corporate owner of ABC News, settled a lawsuit by Trump over a broadcast in which “This Week” host George Stephanopoulos incorrectly stated that Trump had been found “liable for rape” by a Manhattan civil jury. The actual charge on which the jury found Trump liable was sexual abuse, awarding a civil judgment of $83 million to former magazine columnist E. Jean Carroll. Disney agreed to pay $15 million to an online fund for establishing a Trump presidential library, to pay $1 million in legal fees to Trump’s attorneys in the suit, and to issue a statement apologizing for the mistake. Stephanopoulos declined to read the statement, which was nonetheless issued in his name, and he is reportedly under pressure to leave the network. A similar, but even more craven, cave-in is in preparation at CBS News, whose corporate owner, Paramount, is considering a settlement in Trump’s $10 billion lawsuit over the editing of a “60 Minutes” interview with Harris that was broadcast during the election campaign. Trump himself declined to be interviewed by “60 Minutes,” fearing questions that might expose his fascist policies. The editing of the Harris interview was routine, with nearly an hour of questions by journalist Bill Whitaker and responses by Harris cut down to 20 minutes of actual running time on the news program. Trump claimed that meandering answers from Harris had been trimmed and even falsified to make her seem more coherent, but release of the entire transcript showed that these assertions were bogus.
MSNBC Asks "Who's Going To Take A Shot" At Trump? -- MSNBC hack Chris Matthews received widespread condemnation Tuesday for asking during a live broadcast “who is going to take a shot” at President Trump. The leftist propaganda machine is back to spreading incendiary rhetoric where Trump is concerned. In fact, it never stopped. During a ‘Morning Joe,’ appearance former Matthews called on Democrats to fight back against the “Big Boss,” Trump. “He’s the big boss at home and the big boss overseas and nobody stands in his way. And I watch the Democrats and the media too. It’s very hard to take on a firing squad,” Matthew’s blathered. He continued, “A lot of bullets coming your way, all aiming at you, and you’ve got to shoot back in all directions at the same time.” Okaaaay. “Why can’t a Democratic leader stand up and say, what I just said,” Matthews said referring to taking on Trump, adding “This guy’s taking down the Congress. He’s taking down the rights of the American people. He’s the Big Boss overseas and back here. The Big Boss. Listen to him. Do what he says. Nobody’s saying that.” Then came the kicker. “I keep waiting,” Matthews asserted, adding “Who’s going to stand up? Who’s going to take a shot back at this guy?" Not exactly smart, using this kind of language when your audience is made up of Trump hating extremists.
Sen. Cassidy will vote to confirm Patel as FBI head - Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) announced that he will vote to confirm Kash Patel, President Trump’s choice to lead the FBI. Cassidy, the chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, said on Tuesday that he talked to “multiple people I respect about Kash Patel this weekend—both for and against.” “The ones who worked closely with Kash vouched for him. I will vote for his confirmation,” he wrote Tuesday on X. Patel’s newfound support from the GOP senator comes as the chamber gets ready to vote on his formal confirmation later this week. On Tuesday, the Senate advanced Patel’s nomination with a 48-45 party-line vote, bringing him one step closer to being confirmed and leading an agency that Republican lawmakers have accused of being weaponized “against the American people” and marred with politics. A couple of senators did not vote. Patel, a former House staffer who held several national security posts during Trump’s first term, was advanced out of the Senate Judiciary Committee with a 12-10 vote on Thursday last week. Republicans have defended Patel, arguing he would restore trust in the FBI and that throughout his career he has fought “for righteous causes.”
Senate confirms Lutnick along party lines - The Senate has confirmed another one of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees with power over energy, environment and climate policy. Senators voted 51-45 for businessman Howard Lutnick to lead the Department of Commerce — including NOAA, its weather, fisheries and climate bureau. Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania was the only Democrat to vote for Lutnick in committee. No Democrat voted for him on the floor. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has spoken several times in Lutnick’s support, including for broadband development and artificial intelligence.
Republican introduces bill to make Trump’s birthday a federal holiday - Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.) introduced a bill Friday that would establish President Trump’s birthday, June 14, as a public holiday. The Trump’s Birthday and Flag Day Holiday Establishment Act proposes the recognition of both Trump’s birthday and Flag Day, celebrated on June 14, as federal public holidays. “Just as George Washington’s birthday is codified as a federal holiday, President Trump’s birthday should also be celebrated to recognize him as the founder of America’s Golden Age,” Tenney wrote on the social platform X on Monday. George Washington was born on Feb. 22, but Presidents Day, marking his birthday, is celebrated on the third Monday of February. In a separate post Friday, shared after she introduced the Trump birthday bill, Tenney said, “No modern president has been more pivotal for our country than Donald J. Trump.” “Today, I introduced legislation to designate Trump’s Birthday and Flag Day as a federal holiday, ensuring President Trump’s contributions to American greatness are forever enshrined into law,” she added.
Google to pay $340 million to settle Italian tax case (Reuters) - Milan prosecutors plan to drop a case brought against the European division of Google after the company agreed to pay 326 million euros ($340 million) to settle a tax claim, they said on Wednesday. The agreement covers the period between 2015 and 2019 and the covers sanctions, penalties and interest, prosecutors said in a statement. Last year Reuters reported that Italy asked Google to pay 1 billion euros in unpaid taxes and penalties, seven years after the U.S. company settled a previous landmark tax dispute with Rome authorities. The Milan prosecutors alleged that Google did not file and pay taxes on revenue generated in Italy, basing its claim on the digital infrastructure Google has in the country. In 2017 Google paid 306 million euros to settle a previous case that found it had a permanent presence in Italy.
DeepSeek shows there's a fantastic structural story emerging in China, but short-term worries remain -(CNBC video) - Winnie Wu of BofA Securities says that despite the optimism around AI in China, more policy support for the markets will be needed in the short-term as it will be some time before the economy and corporate earnings bottom out.
Europe risks becoming 'museum' without innovating in AI: Swedish PM — Europe is at risk of becoming a "museum" if it doesn't soften strict curbs on artificial intelligence technologies and deregulate, Sweden's Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said Thursday. "I think we really need to step up in Europe ... the American economy, Chinese economy have been growing far faster compared to the European economies over the last 20 years," the premier told attendees of the Techarena event in Stockholm. "If we don't change that, Europe will actually become some kind of a museum compared to other parts of the world," he added. Kristersson's voice joins a chorus of European leaders who spoke at the Paris AI Action Summit last week, stressing the need for the region become a more competitive player in the global AI race. French President Emmanuel Macron announced a 109-billion-euro ($113.7 billion) investment in AI, which includes commitments from both foreign investors like the United Arab Emirates and U.S. American and Canadian investment funds, as well as domestic firms like Iliad, Orange and Thales. Macron at the time compared the scale of the investment commitment to the $500 billion Stargate private AI investment venture announced by President Donald Trump last month. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also said that the EU would mobilize a total of 200 billion euros ($208.6 billion) for AI investments in Europe. Against this backdrop, U.S. Vice President JD Vance took aim at Europe, arguing officials in the continent have become too heavily focused on regulating AI instead of embracing its growth potential. Touting America as "the leader" in the technology, Vance said that the U.S. wants its European allies to foster a more favorable attitude to the technology than it has done to date. "To create that kind of trust, we need international regulatory regimes that fosters the creation of AI technology rather than strangles it, and we need our European friends in particular to look to this new frontier with optimism rather than trepidation," Vance told attendees at the Paris summit. Tech executives have previously criticized the EU for taking too strict a regulatory approach to AI. The bloc's landmark AI Act, which became enforceable this year, is the first comprehensive set of rules aimed at safeguarding against risks posed AI. "To be able to compete in the new geopolitical context, Europe needs to become a place where business and innovation can thrive," Kristersson said Thursday. "That means less regulation. That means more access to capital and talent." He added, "As it stands now, we've got companies having troubles using the latest technology due to uncertainties with the European legislation, companies founded in Europe relocating to the U.S. due to the lack of access to capital. That is simply not good enough."
BREAKING: Bybit CEO Ben Zhou Exposes Pi Network as Massive Fraud Scheme Bybit CEO Ben Zhou has reiterated that Pi Network is a scam and confirmed that Bybit will not support its listing.
- Despite being listed on some exchanges, Pi Network’s legitimacy remains a major debate in the crypto space.
- Earlier today, Pi Network’s token surged to $1.99 following its mainnet launch but quickly dropped 55% to $0.9123 within hours.
The tension between Ben Zhou, CEO of Bybit, and Pi Network, a blockchain project mired in controversy due to its modus operandi, continues to escalate. Zhou has once again reiterated his stance against listing Pi on Bybit, calling it a scam.In a post on X, Zhou confirmed that Bybit will not support Pi Network, citing fraud concerns. To support his claims, he shared a 2023 article from Chinese authorities warning the public against the project, labeling it deceptive and misleading. The shared article detailed how elderly individuals were lured into mining Pi with promises of extravagant rewards, including cars and gifts, only to receive nothing. Some victims even attempted to verify their accounts using their real identification, hoping to withdraw their earnings, but were left empty-handed. The authorities ultimately advised people to avoid Pi Network due to its scam-like elements.Zhou emphasized that some victims lost their pensions and personal data while engaging with the project. His remarks came in response to an anonymous claim on X that Bybit’s refusal to list Pi stemmed from personal bias after allegedly being rejected by Pi Network developers.Refuting this claim, Zhou stated that Bybit never approached Pi Network for a listing, dismissing the allegation as “complete nonsense.” He further challenged Pi Network’s team to address the ongoing concerns about its legitimacy. Embedded tweet.The cryptocurrency market has been engulfed in the Pi Network controversy, particularly following the project’s mainnet launch on February 20. While Bybit remains skeptical, other exchanges like OKX and Bitget have listed the token for trading.Pi officially began trading today, initially soaring to $1.99—an increase of approximately 36%. However, the excitement was short-lived. Within hours, PI price plummeted by 55%, dropping to as low as $0.9123.
The Cryptocurrency Scam That Turned a Small Town Against Itself - The New York Times - Jim Tucker could hardly believe what he was hearing. It sounded like fiction, a nightmare too outlandish for an unassuming town like his. It was July 2023, and Tucker was hosting a meeting of the board of Heartland Tri-State Bank, a community-owned business in a small Kansas town called Elkhart. Heartland was a beloved local institution and a source of Tucker family pride: Jim served on the board with his elderly father, Bill, who founded the bank four decades earlier. All the board members — the Tuckers and several other farmers and businesspeople — had known one another for years. That evening, however, they were gathering to discuss what seemed, on its face, an epic betrayal. Over the past few weeks, the bank’s longtime president, a popular local businessman named Shan Hanes, had ordered a series of unexplained wire transfers that drained tens of millions of dollars from the bank. Hanes converted the funds into cryptocurrencies. Then the money vanished. Tucker’s first inkling that something was wrong came from a friend, an investor in the bank who was close to Hanes. A few days before the board meeting, he confided to Tucker that Hanes had messed up: A wire transfer went out, supposedly to help a struggling customer, and now the bank was $30 million in the hole. By the time the board members gathered, it was clear that Heartland was caught up in some sort of financial scam, a sophisticated grift that delivered its assets into the clutches of an overseas crypto crime network. At the meeting, Hanes seemed oddly nonchalant, exuding the air of an overconfident salesman. Tucker had heard that he had spent the past week at an out-of-state leadership conference. “Guys, I’m sorry,” Hanes told the board. “But we’re going to get it fixed.” Hanes promised that he could recover the money — a total of $47.1 million. All he needed was the board’s approval to borrow another $18 million. With the help of some business contacts, he said, he would use those funds to recoup the many millions he had already lost. His banking career was probably finished, he acknowledged. But the deal came with a sweetener that would allow him to start over. “The people I’m working with have built in money for me,” Hanes explained. Tucker, a 50-year-old farmer, had no special expertise in finance. He grew up in Elkhart, graduated from Elkhart High School and returned after college to work on his family’s farm, a 12,000-acre expanse that he had helped manage for nearly 30 years. He was accustomed to people deferring to Hanes, whom his father considered a brilliant executive — the banking equivalent of Patrick Mahomes, the Kansas City Chiefs’ three-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback. But then Hanes was telling the board that someone in Hong Kong had frozen millions in crypto holdings that he had acquired while working with a couple of internet acquaintances — a banker named Rob who had good relationships in Washington and a woman named Bella with family in Australia. Hanes was a confident speaker, and Tucker worried that these explanations, far-fetched as they were, might sway some of the older members of the board. He could sense that his 92-year-old father was listening closely, straining to keep believing in the man he had trusted for so many years. Hanes seemed hopeful that his pitch had worked. When the board reconvened the next morning, he showed up in shorts and flip-flops, put down his briefcase and started passing out paperwork, laying out ways for the bank to borrow more money. But Jim Tucker had had enough. He slid the forms back to Hanes. “Shan, I don’t even know who you are right now,” Tucker said. “I don’t believe anything you’ve said.” Hanes once told a colleague that anyone who used crypto must have “something they are trying to hide.” Yet in December 2022, after the woman using the name Bella approached him on social media, Hanes began buying cryptocurrencies himself. Bella claimed that her aunt ran a crypto firm in Australia, and she introduced Hanes to a website that resembled a crypto investment platform. Soon she and Hanes were exchanging frequent messages on WhatsApp, usually multiple times a day. By the standards of Elkhart, Hanes was already a wealthy man, but this investment apparently required colossal sums. Within months, he had dipped into his daughter’s college fund, spending $60,000 on digital currencies.Online scams are as old as the internet, but the rise of crypto has given con artists a valuable new tool — digital coins that can be transferred instantly, without oversight from banks legally obligated to monitor transactions for malfeasance. In 2023, crypto fraud cost American investors an estimated $4.8 billion, according to the F.B.I. The scams are so common that law-enforcement authorities have taken to calling them by a pithy name: Pig butchering, a rough translation of an expression widely used in China, where these scams have proliferated in recent years. The scammer’s victim is the pig, slowly fattened for slaughter.The scams typically begin with messages on LinkedIn, Facebook or WhatsApp from an unknown phone number or someone posing as a romantic prospect. Sometimes the conversations lead to business introductions, a connection to a banker or asset manager, with a slick headshot and a fictional résumé. The target is offered an investment opportunity, often backed up by a fraudulent website masquerading as an actual crypto business or an app that displays fake profits on fake account statements. Eventually, the scams all end the same way: The money disappears.After draining his personal savings, Hanes began stealing — from his local investment club, from his church and finally from the bank. Over a few weeks, he ordered a series of large wire transfers, telling his bewildered colleagues that he was helping a client. In May 2023, Hanes transferred $3 million from Heartland to an account at a company called Kraken, which offers trading in digital currencies. To buy more crypto, he directed Heartland to borrow about $21 million from a network of regional lenders and siphoned a similar amount using a credit line that the bank maintained with another institution. Over four weeks in June, Hanes sent $31 million of the embezzled funds to his Kraken account.Later, as his friends and colleagues sorted through the wreckage, Hanes would be called a thief, a liar and “pure evil.” But his lawyer eventually put it differently: “He was the pig that was butchered.”
Pig butchering scams stole $5.5B from crypto investors in 2024 — Cyvers --Pig butchering scams have emerged as one of the most pervasive threats to cryptocurrency investors, with losses in the billions of dollars across 200,000 identified cases in 2024, according to a report from onchain security firm Cyvers, shared exclusively with Cointelegraph. Pig butchering is a type of phishing scheme that involves prolonged and complex manipulation tactics to trick investors into willingly sending their assets to fraudulent crypto addresses. Pig butchering schemes on the Ethereum network cost the industry over $5.5 billion across 200,000 identified cases in 2024, according to the report. Among the top 10 most affected platforms, Cyvers identified three of the five largest centralized exchanges (CEXs), a crypto-friendly bank and an institutional trading platform. The industry is still recovering from 2024, when crypto hackers stole over $2.3 billion worth of digital assets across 165 incidents, a 40% increase over 2023, when losses totaled $1.69 billion.Pig butchering schemes are “by far the biggest threat,” even compared to crypto hacks, according to Michael Pearl, vice president of GTM strategy at Cyvers.“Even though, it’s important to highlight that, unlike hacks, it’s very hard to draw the line between pig butchering and investment scams. Ponzi, romance, it’s often a mix of all,” Pearl said.“What makes it a pig butchering scheme is the grooming element,” he added. Since pig butchering schemes are a subset of phishing schemes, attackers must trick users into willingly sending their assets, unlike with hacks.The average grooming period for victims lasts between one and two weeks in 35% of cases, while 10% of scams involve grooming periods of up to three months, according to Cyvers data. (Pig butchering victim stats, grooming time. Source: Cyvers) In an alarming sign, 75% of victims lost over half of their net worth to pig butchering scams. Males aged 30 to 49 are most affected by these attacks. The proliferation of generative artificial intelligence and AI-based social media chatbots is also helping scammers scale their attacks. Still, the impact of pig butchering schemes extends beyond just retail investors, according to Deddy Lavid, co-founder and CEO of Cyvers:“Crypto platforms — especially centralized exchanges — are hemorrhaging millions, grappling with reputational crises, struggling to maintain banking relationships and increasingly facing regulatory scrutiny.”“Efforts to combat this phenomenon are underway, ranging from industry-led initiatives to government-driven regulatory actions and enforcement efforts,” he added.
'All we've really wanted is clarity': Crypto leaders on regs The majority of the crypto community has been calling for clearer regulation for years and is optimistic President Donald Trump's administration will strike the balance between regulatory oversight and innovation in upcoming legislation. Executives from Circle, Coinbase and Custodia Bank are among those cheering the Trump administration's pro-crypto moves.
Kadena launches $25 million grant program for tokenized real estate -- Kadena, a fintech company focused on distributed ledger solutions for businesses, launched a $25 million grant program Tuesday for development of startups working on tokenized real estate and real-world asset (RWA) adoption. The distributed ledger developer announced the grant program in tandem with its real-world asset token standard.
Crypto and Trump gang up on FDIC over debanking: 'Our story is pretty ridiculous' -- Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley wants everyone to know what happened to his crypto company in 2023 during the Biden administration."Our story is pretty ridiculous," McCauley told CNBC in an interview after testifying at a Senate hearing, titled, "Investigating the Real Impacts of Debanking in America," earlier this month. "We had a bank that we had a growing relationship with for a number of years, who basically on a dime, decided to turn off our bank account." No explanation. No warning. After two years working with the bank, access was cut off. He didn't name the bank and an Anchorage spokesperson said the company is declining to provide it.McCauley's peers across the crypto industry have shared similar sagas about being locked out of the U.S. financial system, losing access to payroll, checking accounts and payment processing. Industry leaders call it "Operation Choke Point 2.0," an alleged coordinated effort by regulators during the Biden presidency to pressure banks into severing ties with crypto. The 1.0 version, they say, occurred when the Obama administration went after banks that backed gun manufacturers and payday lenders.With the word "debanking," crypto execs and investors have found immediate allies among top Republicans in both houses of Congress and in the White House, who are ready and willing to investigate any potential malfeasance that occurred when Democrats were in charge.President Donald Trump has coopted the agenda for political gain. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month, he accused JPMorgan Chase and Bank of Americaof politically motivated debanking, claiming major financial institutions have shut out conservatives under pressure from regulators. The banks denied the claim and Trump hasn't provided any evidence to back it up.Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) has tied himself closely to Trump and, as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, used hisopening remarks at the hearing on Feb. 5, to echo the president's sentiment."It is incredibly alarming and disheartening to hear stories about financial institutions cutting off services to digital asset firms, political figures, and conservative-aligned businesses and individuals," Scott said.Nathan McCauley, co-founder and chief executive officer of Anchorage Digital Bank, during a Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee hearing in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 5, 2025. For crypto industry leaders like McCauley, Republican leadership in Washington has provided a platform to publicly air their grievances.McCauley, whose company is a federally chartered crypto bank, recounted Anchorage's abrupt loss of banking services in June 2023. He said that while his company has faced numerous challenges, the environment has been even worse for less-established startups."You can only imagine what was happening to the smaller entrepreneurs who didn't have the resources to be able to marshal in order to keep their bank accounts open," McCauley told CNBC.In his testimony to Scott's committee, McCauley said that after losing access to its banking services, Anchorage had to lay off 20% of its workforce, including 70 U.S. employees. To this day, clients are unable "to send wire transfers to third parties," he said.The high-profile hearings so early in Trump's second administration underscore the sudden influence of the crypto industry, which was instrumental in getting its favored candidates elected across the country in November.Crypto exchange Coinbase was one of the top corporate donors in the 2024 election cycle, giving more than $75 million to a group called Fairshake and its affiliate PACs, including a fresh pledge of $25 million to support the pro-crypto super PAC in the 2026 midterms. Ripple doled out around around $50 million.Coinbase and Ripple were both involved in protracted legal battles with the SEC under former Chairman Gary Gensler.Trump is paying them back in a variety of ways. His executive order on crypto promises "fair and open access" to financial services. And Trump appointed venture capitalist David Sacks, a longtime ally of Elon Musk, as the White House's first AI and crypto czar.Meanwhile, the SEC has already signaled a rollback of rules that previously kept banks from holding bitcoin on their balance sheets, and the FDIC is under pressure to revise guidelines that made it harder for banks to serve digital asset companies.Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal testified before the House Financial Services Committee on Feb. 6, along with Fred Thiel, CEO of bitcoin miner MARA Holdings. In a hearing titled "Operation Choke Point 2.0: The Biden Administration's Efforts to Put Crypto in the Crosshairs," they described aggressive pressure from U.S. regulators to effectively push banks to cut ties with crypto firms."No one wants to see anyone denied basic banking services on the basis of their political views or whether they happen to work in an industry that might be out of favor with the current administration," Grewal told CNBC. "There are concerns across the political aisle and across the Congress that banking services have in the past been weaponized in order to run roughshod over those who may be out of favor."The FDIC last week released hundreds of pages of internal records obtained through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. The documents show that the regulator sent "pause letters," urging banks to rethink their relationships with crypto clients.
Fed's Barr: No evidence of political debanking — The Federal Reserve's top regulator said he has no reason to believe banks are dropping customers based on their political actions or affiliations. The Fed's top regulator said banks drop customers they see as too risky, and anti-money-laundering actions are "just straight-up-the-middle risk management and banking."
House GOP asks FDIC to ditch reputational risk from exams — Leading Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee asked Republicans to remove "reputational risk" as a factor that examiners consider when they oversee banks. Senior Republican House Financial Services Committee lawmakers in a letter to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. gave a series of recommendations that they said would combat so-called "debanking."
Trump order gives banks a regulatory break, but at what cost? - A White House order peeling back agency independence would curtail bank regulation in the near term, but could set the stage for long-term uncertainty and volatility. A White House order curtailing the independence of banking agencies will make it harder for regulators to impose new requirements while making bank oversight practices more accountable to the voting public.
Fed's Barr urges new regulators to uphold standards --With days left in his role, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr reflected on his tenure and the terms of his departure as a bank regulator, while also urging the Trump administration to continue to work on reforms started under the previous administration. Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr urged the Trump administration to continue reforms initiated under Biden and emphasized the importance of keeping the central bank apolitical.
OCC's Hood floats raising SAR threshold, revising HHI index Acting Comptroller of the Currency Rodney Hood Tuesday suggested reforming anti-money laundering standards for banks, ensuring mergers are considered in a timely manner and uplifting financial inclusion in a recent roundtable discussion with banking leaders. Hood suggested that regulators should consider raising the dollar amount for mandatory suspicious activity reporting and revising the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to advance bank mergers.
OCC fires 76 as part of Trump's government workforce reduction == The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is the latest federal banking agency to let go of probationary employees. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency fired 76 employees as part of the Trump administration's push to shrink the federal workforce.
Bank, credit union advisory councils disbanded by Trump - President Donald Trump issued an executive order Wednesday night disbanding of three bank and credit union advisory groups.
Banks aren't as worried as they should be -- We in the United States enjoy a very rare air indeed, though we don't always appreciate it. The U.S. has dominated the global economy for more than a century, spurred initially by an infrastructure boom in the late 19th century and then by expansive global trade and finance after that. China is expected to overtake the U.S. as the world's single largest economy sometime in the next decade, but while that growth has been explosive, it has not been linear. President Donald Trump's concerted effort to bring the entirety of the executive branch under his direct control defies tradition, and in some cases, likely the law. Banks have thus far voiced little objection, but they should know how critical the rule of law is to their bottom line.
Effective bank regulatory modernization requires a scalpel, not an axe -- It is tempting, especially for newcomers, to think modernizing bank oversight is as simple as ripping pages from the Code of Federal Regulation. The fleeting sense of euphoria such a simplification might provide to those who have operated under our supervisory system will soon fade, particularly if a financial crisis ensues. And if the missing pages are replaced only by the judgment of agency supervisors, the regulated may even long for the certainty that published regulations once provided. An overhaul of the bank regulatory system is past due, but the urge to start tearing up the rule book must be resisted in favor of precision and the thoughtful application of some basic principles.
GAO: Agencies should finalize executive compensation rule — The Government Accountability Office issued a report finding that financial regulatory agencies should finalize the executive compensation rule required by Dodd-Frank. The GAO studied executive compensation on request from Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., ranking member of the House Financial Services Committee, in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023.
Fed's Bowman calls for review of Dodd-Frank reforms - A top Federal Reserve official wants the central bank to revisit its post-financial crisis regulatory reforms. Federal Reserve Gov. Michelle Bowman — who is viewed as a leading contender to be the next vice chair for supervision at the central bank — said changes to the post-financial crisis framework should be a focal point of the Fed's regulatory policy review.CFPB downfall has bankers questioning the agency's future -- Coming up on one month in office, President Donald Trump has made quick work of the banking system through new regulatory appointments and legislative moves that seek to unwind many Biden-era policies. Executives juggling one change after the next are left wondering when the dust will settle. The executive appointments at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau top the list of noteworthy moves by President Donald Trump to hit banks in recent days.
Experts fear unfair influence for Musk in CFPB stoppage -- Within an hour of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent being named acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Feb. 3, the agency's staff received a memo ordering them to stop all rulemakings and enforcement activity. The Trump administration's orders to stop supervisory exams at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau are seen as a potential conflict of interest for Elon Musk, whose company X would have been overseen by the bureau when it launches its payments wallet.
Warren, Schiff demand DOGE be removed from CFPB — Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, and Adam Schiff, D-Calif., demanded that Elon Musk and the so-called Department of Government Efficiency exit the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. While Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is continuing to try and save the agency she helped create, Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., who benefited from crypto spending in his primary race, is a new ally.
NY Attorney General joins coalition against CFPB shutdown New York Attorney General Letitia James is co-leading a coalition of 23 attorneys general in opposing efforts by the Trump administration and Elon Musk to disband the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. James and 22 other attorneys general have filed an amicus brief in a Maryland case challenging the dissolution of the consumer protection agency.
Trump former DOJ lawyer Jeffrey Clark joins the CFPB - The Trump administration has installed Jeffrey Clark at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Clark, a former environmental lawyer in the Justice Department in the first Trump administration, was indicted as part of the president's efforts to overturn the 2020 election.
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January - The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.40% as of January 31, 2025. According to MBA’s estimate, 200,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance decreased 2 basis points to 0.17% in January 2025. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance decreased by 19 basis points to 0.88%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) remained the same as the prior month at 0.40%. “While the number of forbearance requests grew in January, the number of forbearance exits outweighed that pick-up, reaching the highest level since June 2022,” . “This outcome was somewhat surprising given the recent events in California, but it speaks to recovery in other parts of the country affected by natural disasters and the movement of aged government loans out of forbearance.” “As the number of borrowers in forbearance dropped this past month, the number of borrowers with permanent loan workouts grew. Today, approximately 6.5 percent of all borrowers – or 3.3 million homeowners – are in a loan workout completed in 2020 or after.” ... By reason, 64.1% of borrowers are in forbearance for reasons such as a temporary hardship caused by job loss, death, divorce, or disability. Another 32.9% are in forbearance because of a natural disaster. The remaining 3.0% of borrowers are still in forbearance because of COVID-19. At the end of January, there were about 200,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Neutral" Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates A brief excerpt: Housing economist Tom Lawler has written extensively on the neutral rate. He has argued that the neutral rate has increased back to pre-financial crisis levels and that it seems like that “the current stance of monetary policy is not meaningfully restrictive”.Analysts are catching up. This morning, economists at BofA wrote: “The most reasonable interpretation of the data flow seems to be that the neutral rate has increased a lot more than previously thought, and policy might not be restrictive at all.”And in his testimony to Congress last week, Fed Chair Powell said: “This is my own view, and there are many different views on this, but it is that the neutral rate has risen meaningfully … from what was clearly very, very low before the pandemic … [as do] many of my colleagues on the FOMC".[…] In normal times, the 30-year mortgage rate is typically 175 to 200 bp above the 10-year yield. Here is a graph of the relationship between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year yield since 1971. The red dots are the for the period Jan 2022 until today. This shows that the spread increased with the inverted yield curve.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - Mortgage applications decreased 6.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 14, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 39 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates decreased on average over the week, as markets brushed off unexpectedly strong inflation data. Despite mortgage rates declining, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 6.93 percent, mortgage applications decreased to their slowest pace since the beginning of the year,” . “Purchase applications were down for the week, as buyers remained on the fence, although loosening inventory may help support activity in the coming months. Refinance applications had been rising in previous weeks but dipped as rates remained close to 7 percent.” .. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.93 percent from 6.95 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 7% year-over-year unadjusted. Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). Purchase application activity is up about 15% from the lows in late October 2023 and is now 5% below the lowest levels during the housing bust.
Housing Feb 17th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.9% Week-over-week, Up 29.2% Year-over-year --Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.9% week-over-week.Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.2% from the bottom five weeks ago in January.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 29.2% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 27.8%), and down 22.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.1%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly! This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Feb 14th, inventory was at 638 thousand (7-day average), compared to 632 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 27.6% YoY - On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 27.6% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Feb. 15, 2025:
• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 27.6% above year-ago levels. For the 67th consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared with the same time last year. This week also marked the sixth straight week where the growth rate has increased, fueled by the entrance of many new listings on the market.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—increased 5% Newly listed inventory increased year over year for the sixth week in a row, as sellers go online for the spring buying season. Despite mortgage rates remaining stubbornly high and many prospective sellers feeling the lock-in effect due to their lower previous rates, new homes are hitting the market at a faster pace than in 2024 at this time.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 67th consecutive week. New listings have jumped recently but remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January - From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,366,000. This is 9.8 percent below the revised December estimate of 1,515,000 and is 0.7 percent below the January 2024 rate of 1,376,000. Single-family housing starts in January were at a rate of 993,000; this is 8.4 percent below the revised December figure of 1,084,000. The January rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 355,000.Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,483,000. This is 0.1 percent above the revised December rate of 1,482,000, but is 1.7 percent below the January 2024 rate of 1,508,000. Single-family authorizations in January were at a rate of 996,000; this is virtually unchanged from the revised December figure of 996,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 427,000 in January. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000. Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in January. Multi-family starts were up 2.2% year-over-year. Single-family starts (red) decreased in January and were down 1.8% year-over-year. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts. Total housing starts in January were below expectations; however, starts in November and December were revised up.
Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January. A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in January were below expectations; however, starts in November and December were revised up. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red). Total starts were down 0.7% in January compared to January 2024. There were significant regional differences in January with starts in the Northeast region down sharply year-over-year (likely weather related). Single family starts have been up year-over-year in 14 of the last 19 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 4 of last 20 months.
AIA: Architecture Billings "Billings remain soft to start the new year" -Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI January 2025: Architecture firm billings remain soft to start the new year = The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score was 45.6 for the month, slightly above the December score. This means that while a majority of firms still saw their billings decrease in January, the share of firms experiencing that decrease was slightly smaller than in December. Inquiries into new projects continued to grow at the same slow pace as in recent months, but the value of newly signed design contracts declined for the eleventh consecutive month as clients remained cautious about committing to new projects during the ongoing economic uncertainty. (Note that every January, the seasonal adjustment factors for all ABI data series are revised, leading to revisions in recent historical data.) Billings were also soft at firms in all regions of the country in January. Firms located in the West saw very modest billings growth in the fourth quarter of 2024, but unfortunately, billings returned to negative territory to start the new year. Business conditions remained softest at firms located in the Northeast, which has been the trend in recent months. And billings softened further at firms located in the South, which saw more encouraging signs last fall, before weakening again. Billings also declined at firms of all specializations in January. Firms with a commercial/industrial specialization continued to be most likely to report softening business conditions, but billings have weakened at firms of all specializations in recent months. ... The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.• Northeast (41.1); Midwest (45.6); South (46.0); West (48.8)
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (43.1); institutional (47.4); multifamily residential (45.0)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 45.6 in January, up from 44.1 in December. Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services. This index has indicated contraction for 26 of the last 28 months. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2025. This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. Multi-family billings remained negative has been negative for the last 30 months. This suggests we will see further weakness in multi-family starts
Homebuilder sentiment falls in February amid tariff worries -Sentiment among the nation's single-family homebuilders dropped to the lowest level in five months in February, largely due to concern over tariffs, which would raise their costs significantly. The National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market Index, or HMI, dropped a sharp 5 points from January to a reading of 42. Anything below 50 is considered negative sentiment. Last February, the index stood at 48. "While builders hold out hope for pro-development policies, particularly for regulatory reform, policy uncertainty and cost factors created a reset for 2025 expectations in the most recent HMI," said NAHB Chairman Carl Harris, a homebuilder from Wichita, Kansas. Of the index's three components, current sales conditions fell 4 points to 46, buyer traffic fell 3 points to 29 and sales expectations in the next six months plunged 13 points to 46. That last component hit its lowest level since December 2023. Builders are already facing elevated mortgage rates. The average on the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was above 7% for January and February after earlier being in the 6% range. Home prices are also higher than they were a year ago, weakening affordability further. While President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico, originally proposed to take effect in early February, were delayed roughly a month, builders are still expecting higher costs. "With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs," said NAHB chief economist Robert Dietz. Homebuilder sentiment had been gaining steadily since August on the expectation of lower mortgage rates and, as the builders noted, potential pro-development policies. Single-family housing starts are trending lower than they were a year ago, despite a lean supply of existing homes for sale. The drop in builder sentiment, coming right before the all-important spring market, signals potentially even less supply in the market. Several homebuilders have noted the pullback in buyer demand in recent earnings reports. "Despite Federal Reserve actions to lower short-term interest rates, mortgage interest rates remained elevated in the fourth quarter, which impacted buyer demand as homebuyers continue to face affordability challenges," said Ryan Marshall, CEO of PulteGroup, in its fourth-quarter earnings release. The share of builders lowering prices dropped to 26% in February, down from 30% in January and the lowest share since May 2024. Other sales incentives also fell. This may be because incentives are becoming less effective at attracting buyers, since high prices and high rates have reduced the pool of buyers for whom these benefits move the needle, according to the NAHB. When a buyer is solidly priced out, no incentive helps, and with rates remaining higher, the pool of marginal buyers may be shrinking. Offering incentives to buyers who would buy regardless of price or rates is of diminishing value for builders.
NAHB: "Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns" in February -- The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, down from 47 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Falls on Tariff and Housing Cost Concerns Builder sentiment fell sharply in February over concerns on tariffs, elevated mortgage rates and high housing costs. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in February, down five points from January and the lowest level in five months, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. “While builders hold out hope for pro-development policies, particularly for regulatory reform, policy uncertainty and cost factors created a reset for 2025 expectations in the most recent HMI,” “Uncertainty on the tariff front helped push builders’ expectations for future sales volume down to the lowest level since December 2023. Incentive use may also be weakening as a sales strategy as elevated interest rates reduce the pool of eligible home buyers.” “With 32% of appliances and 30% of softwood lumber coming from international trade, uncertainty over the scale and scope of tariffs has builders further concerned about costs,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Reflecting this outlook, builder responses collected prior to a pause for the proposed tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico yielded a lower HMI reading of 38, while those collected after the announced one-month pause produced a score of 44. Addressing the elevated pace of shelter inflation requires bending the housing cost curve to enable adding more attainable housing. The latest HMI survey also revealed that 26% of builders cut home prices in February, down from 30% in January and the lowest share since May 2024. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in February, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 59% in February, down from 61% in January. ... All three of the major HMI indices posted losses in February. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell four points to 46, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months plunged 13 points to 46, and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point decline to 29. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell three points in February to 57, the Midwest moved two points lower to 45, the West edged one-point lower to 39 and the South held steady at 46. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was below the consensus forecast.
Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 0.5% Year-over-year--From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 8 February - The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 8 February. ... 2-8 February 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):• Occupancy: 55.9% (-0.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.03 (-2.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$87.22 (-2.7%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking last year and is a little lower than the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Our Drunken Sailors and their Credit Cards: Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, and Available Credit in Q4 2024 by Wolf Richter - Delinquency rates for credit cards 30 days or more past due declined for the second quarter in a row, to 3.08% of total credit-card balances at all commercial banks at the end of Q4, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data on yesterday. This includes credit cards issued to prime and subprime-rates borrowers. The plunge in delinquencies during the pandemic was a result of Free Money flooding households which helped some folks get caught up; and it was also driven in part by limited options of spending, with restaurants, flights, cruises, entertainment venues, etc. being largely shut down. Then the spending boom took off, the Free Money ended, and delinquency rates normalized, then overshot a little. The high point was in Q2 last year (3.24%), and the delinquency rate has dropped since then: For prime-rated cardholders, delinquencies of 60-plus days have hovered at around 1%, sometimes a little under sometimes a little over, not seasonally adjusted, right where they had been before the pandemic, according to data from Fitch Ratings, which tracks the performance of Asset Backed Securities (ABS) backed by prime credit card balances. Credit Card Balances are a measure of spending, not of debt. Credit cards are the dominant payment system in the US, and credit card statement balances therefore are a measure of spending – including for expensive business trips that are reimbursed. They’re not a measure of borrowing because most balances are paid off by due date and never accrue interest, but allow cardholders to get their 1% or 2% cashback, airmiles, and other loyalty benefits. Of the roughly $6 trillion a year that flow through credit cards, only a small portion doesn’t get paid off every month by due date. Credit card balances that are “revolving” – meaning becoming an interest-bearing loan – amounted to $645 billion at the end of Q3, according to the Philadelphia Fed’s report in January. Big-ticket items, such as furniture to equip the new house, are a common example of balances getting run up that then get paid off over the next few months. Lower-income people rarely have access to credit cards, and usually have to make do with debit cards, or if they have access to credit, the credit limits are low. So in aggregate, they cannot run up the revolving balances; it’s the young high-income dentist with five credit cards, each with a $30,000 credit limit, that can put a dent into those balances. Credit card statement balances rose by $45 billion, or 3.9%, at the end of Q4, not seasonally adjusted, to $1.21 trillion, according to the NY Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Report, after blockbuster holiday spending by our Drunken Sailors, as we’ve come to call them lovingly and facetiously. Year-over-year, statement balances were up 7.3% — more people, more workers, making more money, and spending more. “Other” consumer loans, such as personal loans, payday loans, and Buy-Now-Pay-Later (BNPL) loans remained unchanged year-over-year, at $554 billion (blue line). BNPLs are subsidized by the merchant and are interest-free for the consumer, if they stick to the plan. Merchants like them because the fees can be lower than credit card swipe fees. Combined, credit card balances and “other” consumer loans rose by 3.1% in Q4 from Q3 and by 4.9% year-over-year, to $1.76 trillion.
Auto Debts, Auto-Loan-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies for Prime & Subprime: Our Drunken Sailors and their Auto Loans by Wolf Richter - Total balances of auto loans and leases for new and used vehicles inched up by 0.7%, or by $11 billion, in Q4 from Q3, and by 3.0% or by $48 billion, to $1.66 trillion, according to data from the New York Fed, which is based on Equifax credit report data. This relatively modest increase occurred even as the population, employment, and incomes grew, causing disposable household income to grow by 1.3% in Q4, and by 5.1% year-over-year, far faster than auto loans and leases, and so the auto-loan-to-income ratio dipped further. Of all loans and leases outstanding, only 14.0% were subprime rated, according to Experian data. Of the newly originated loans, 16% were subprime rated, which is historically low, and down from 22.8% in 2019. One of the reasons the growth of auto loans was relatively modest in 2024, despite rising new and used vehicle unit sales, was that more people paid cash for their vehicles, given the higher interest rates. For new vehicles, the share of cash purchases rose to 20% in recent quarters, from 18% in Q1 2022. It’s in new vehicles that subsidized leases and rate-buydowns entice buyers to finance though they might otherwise pay cash for the vehicle. For used vehicles, the share of cash purchases rose to 65%, from 59% in Q1 2022, per Experian data. The burden of auto loans and leases: Debt-to-income ratio. The burden of these auto loans and leases on households – accounting for more people, higher employment, and higher incomes – can be tracked with the auto-loan-to-disposable-income ratio. Debt-to-income ratios are a classic measure of the borrowers’ creditworthiness, their ability to deal with the burden of debt. We use disposable income (by the Bureau of Economic Analysis) because it represents an after-payroll-tax cashflow from all income sources but excludes capital gains: Household income from after-tax wages, plus income from interest, dividends, rentals, farm income, small business income, transfer payments from the government, etc. This is the cash consumers have available every month to spend on housing, food, debt payments, etc. In Q4 from Q3: auto-loan balances +0.7%, disposable income +1.3%. Year-over-year: auto-loan balances +3.0%, disposable income +5.1%. As disposable income grew faster than balances of auto loans and leases, the burden of the auto debt on households, in terms of the debt-to-income ratio, dipped to 7.53%, and has been in the same relatively low range all year. Our Drunken Sailors, as we have come to call them lovingly and facetiously, have switched to just an occasional drink? The 60-plus day delinquency rate for all auto loans and leases inched up to 1.58% in December 2024, not seasonally adjusted, up just a hair from December 2023, per Equifax data. The highs in 2024 had been in January (1.59%) and February (1.61%). During the Free-Money era of the pandemic, delinquency rates had dropped below 1% (red in the chart below). Subprime is always in trouble. Fitch, which rates asset-backed securities (ABS) backed by auto loans, splits out the delinquency rates for prime-rated auto loans (blue in the chart below) and subprime-rated auto loans (gold in the chart). Subprime means “bad credit” at the time of origination – a history of delinquencies and unpaid bills – and not “low income.” Low-income people have trouble borrowing, and if they can get credit at all, the amounts are small. It’s people with high-enough incomes that get seriously into it over their head, often as part of a learning experience early on in their careers. Fitch’s subprime 60-day-plus delinquency rate ticked up to 6.15% in December 2024, up from 5.94% in December 2023. These delinquency rates peak in January or February. They hit an all-time high of 6.4% in February 2024 and may end up in the same neighborhood in February 2025. Only 16% of all auto loans originated in Q4 were subprime, most of them to finance the purchases of used vehicles, particularly older used vehicles, sold by specialized subprime dealer-lender chains, or financed by specialized subprime lenders. Lenders package these loans into ABS and sell these bonds to pension funds and other institutional investors that buy them for their higher yield. Only 14% of all outstanding loans and leases were subprime. It’s a small specialized high-risk-high-profit part of auto lending. Prime-rated auto loans are in pristine condition, with delinquency rates hovering at 0.37% over the past few months, including December. Even during the Great Recession, the prime delinquency rate rose to only 0.9% in the worst months (blue):
Wave of retail store closings in US as consumers pull back spending -- US retailers are expected to close 15,000 stores this year, more than double the 7,325 shuttered in 2024 and breaking a record set in 2020 at the height of the pandemic. Last week, bankrupt fabric retailer Jo-Ann announced it is planning to close around 500 locations this year, over one-half its 850 stores. The cuts will impact 49 states. Through January this year, there were already 2,000 reported closures, including bankrupt Party City (738) and Big Lots (601). Pharmacy chain Walgreens has closed 333 stores and has targeted 500 more for closure this year. 2024 saw a number of other high-profile bankruptcies, including department store chain Macy’s. Bankrupt furniture retailer Conn’s had 553 store closings last year while bankrupt American Freight closed 353 locations and LL Flooring closed 213 stores. Overall, retail bankruptcies doubled over 2023 going from 25 to 51. One Jo-Ann employee posted on social media, “The higher-up’s knew all along that stores would be closing, stringing store employees along that maybe... Corporate greed and major mismanagement above the store level in all its glory! Working our patooties off, hours cut, absolutely minimal staffing, customer complaints, that’s what the last year and a half has been! The only store remaining open in MD is Annapolis, and it’s more of a craft store than a fabric store.” The largest store closings in 2024 were in discount stores and pharmacies. Leading the list was Family Dollar with 700 store closings. CVS Health had 586 pharmacy closures and, Rite Aid closed 408 stores, followed by Walgreens with 259. This has led to warnings of the creation of “pharmacy deserts,” forcing people to travel out of the local area to fill prescriptions. A number of factors are behind the mass of retail closures, such as the shift to online selling, but depressed spending amid growing social distress is certainly a key driving force. Overall, January saw tepid job growth with employers adding 143,000 jobs, down significantly from the 261,000 added in November and 307,000 in December. The unemployment rate stood at 4 percent, still relatively moderate by historical standards, but concealing high levels of economic insecurity exacerbated by low-wage jobs and part-time and gig work. The decline in job creation has been an ongoing trend. New jobs rose 2 million in 2024, down from 2.6 million in 2023 and the record 4.6 million in 2022, following the forced return to work during the pandemic. New job openings stood at 7.6 million in December, down from 12.2 million in March 2022. After rising for the previous year, retail sales dropped 0.9 percent in January, the biggest decrease since March 2023. Sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument and bookstore sales were down 4.6 percent. Even online sales were down, falling 1.9 percent. Building material store sales fell 1.3 percent. There were declines in other categories as well. The fall in sales was at least partially due to the unusually cold weather across much of the US and the fires in Southern California. However, other factors probably came into play as well, such as fears of harder economic times ahead with Trump’s looming tariff war and federal job cuts. According to a University of Michigan Consumer Survey for February, one-year inflation expectations reached a 15-month high in early February as households perceived that “it may be too late to avoid the negative impact of tariff policy.” Another factor in the downward pressure on spending is the growth in consumer debt. At the end of 2024, credit card debt stood at a record $1.21 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That was $45 billion more than at the end of the third quarter of 2024 and an $82 billion year-over-year rise, or 7.3 percent. Credit card debt is made more burdensome by the continued high interest rates, with the typical average credit card interest payment now at around 20 percent. Matt Schulz from Lending Tree told CNBC, “Stubborn inflation has shrunk a lot of Americans’ financial margin for error from slim to about none, forcing people to lean more heavily on credit card debt.” Workers are increasingly struggling to make minimum credit card payments and delinquencies are rising. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, levels of serious delinquency, defined as 90 or more days past due, remained stable for mortgages but was up slightly for auto loans and credit cards in the final quarter of 2024. It also reports that 3.5 percent of all outstanding debt is in some state of delinquency.
LA Ports: Record Inbound Traffic for January -- This was a new record for imports in January, eclipsing the previous recent (Jan 2022) by 17%! Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. . On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 1.9% in January compared to the rolling 12 months ending in December. Outbound traffic was unchanged compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 25% YoY in January and exports were down slightly YoY. This was a very strong July through January period as importers were likely stockpiling goods prior to the increase in tariffs.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 219,000 -The DOL reported: In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 219,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,000 to 216,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. . The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 215,250. The previous week was revised up. Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.
Alabama grand jury recommends police department be ‘immediately abolished’ An Alabama county grand jury recommended a local police department be “immediately abolished” as it indicted a group of law enforcement officers in the death of 911 dispatcher Christopher Willingham last year.Five Hanceville, Ala., officers and one of their spouses were accused of “negligence, lack of procedure, general incompetence and disregard for human life,” Cullman County District Attorney Champ Crocker said Wednesday at a news conference. Hanceville Police Chief Jason Marlin was indicted alongside officers Cody Alan Kelso, Drew Shelnut, Jason Wilbanks and Eric Michael Kelso, as well as Eric Kelso’s wife, Donna Kelso. All were arrested and charged, and have been released from the Cullman County Sheriff’s Office on bond.The indictment accuses Donna Kelso of distributing an unlawful controlled substance to Wilbanks and Cody Kelso in addition to others with the help of her husband.Willingham’s body was found at the police department on Aug. 23. Fentanyl, gabapentin, diazepam, amphetamine, carisoprodol and methocarbamol were found in his system in an autopsy, according to the Cullman County Coroner’s Office as reported by the Montgomery Advertiser.“With these indictments, these officers find themselves on the opposite end of the laws they were sworn to uphold. Wearing a badge is a privilege and an honor that most law enforcement officers take seriously,” Crocker said during a Wednesday press briefing.
New bill could spell crackdowns on pro-LGBTQ+ demonstrations across Ohio -- A new bill at the Ohio Statehouse could be used to target pro-LGBTQ+ demonstrations across the state by allowing private citizens to sue individuals for damages incurred by “vandalism or riot activity,” even if an individual is not found personally responsible for the damages.Ohio Senate Bill (SB) 53 is part of a growing legislative trend theNational Lawyers Guild (NLG) has called “a thinly-veiled attempt to further criminalize protesting.”“SB 53 is designed to keep the most marginalized, including the LGBTQ+ community, silent by increasing the potential penalties for making their voices heard,” said NLG media liaison Hannah Scifres.“If SB 53 is signed into law, organizers of a pro-LGBTQ+ rally could be held civilly liable if a protestor in attendance caused damage, no matter how minimal, to private property,” Scifres added. “The Ohio legislature is attempting to scare community organizers into silence and complicity. However, Pride has its roots in protest and countering state-sanctioned violence.”
Texas girl, 11, died by suicide. Her parents say she was bullied with threats of ICE - The family of a Texas girl who died by suicide is demanding accountability from her school district, saying the 11-year-old was bullied by classmates who threatened to call immigration agents on her parents. Jocelynn died in Dallas on Feb. 8, according to the Dallas County Medical Examiner’s office, which ruled her death a suicide. Her family said she spent five days in the hospital before her death. Her mother, Marbella Carranza, told Univision that Jocelynn was bullied for having Hispanic parents. Classmates told the 11-year-old they’d call Immigration and Customs Enforcement to take away her parents, Carranza said. It was only after Jocelynn attempted to take her own life that Carranza said she learned from a counselor that her daughter reported being bullied. “It was negligence of the school to not tell me what was going on with my daughter,” Carranza told the television network. “The school was aware of this, but they never told me.” School district officials declined to comment but issued a written statement. In a radio interview with KGAF, Gainesville ISD Superintendent DesMontes Stewart said the school wasn’t aware of the bullying described by the family. “There was no active bullying report filed with GISD,” Stewart said. “We had no idea.” Stewart said Jocelynn was attending a “group to help with coping skills” but “that was nothing related to bullying.” Ernest Rojo, Jocelynn’s father, told The Dallas Morning News in a text message that the family wants an investigation to understand what happened. “I think someone had something to do with it,” he wrote in Spanish. He described his daughter as someone full of love who wanted to be a dancer. Family pictures posted on social media show her holding a French horn, dancing with her dad and his family. She would not have had the idea to hurt herself on her own, her father added. He urged families to be watchful of their children to ensure they are not in danger. It was only after Jocelynn’s death that other students told school administrators about the bullying she experienced, Stewart said. “We found out in that particular moment that there was indeed some ongoing bantering and issues back and forth,” he said. Some students were identified and are subject to the school’s code of conduct. He added the district has a protocol that includes making the parents aware of bullying once reported. Elias Rojo Rodriguez, Jocelynn’s uncle, told The News the family wants to speak about the girl’s life to prevent bullying from turning deadly. “We want this to stop so that there is no more bullying in schools and that the tragedy we are living through doesn’t happen again,” he said.
Five Northern VA school districts probed on trans policies - The Education Department is investigating whether five Northern Virginia school districts violated Title IX and one of President Trump’s recent executive orders by allowing transgender students to use their chosen name and pronouns at school and access restrooms and locker rooms that match their gender identity. The department’s Office for Civil Rights opened probes into the Arlington, Alexandria, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William County school districts, according to a letter sent Wednesday to America First Legal, a conservative organization founded by White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller. The group had asked the department to conduct investigations into the five school districts earlier this month, alleging each of them had continued enforcing policies meant to support transgender students in violation of Title IX, the federal civil rights law banning sex discrimination in schools. The policies vary by school district, but all allow transgender students to use restrooms and changing rooms that match their gender identity. America First Legal argued in its complaint that the policies also conflict with a Jan. 29 executive order targeting public schools that promote what Trump and his administration call “gender ideology.” The organization said the districts’ policies, which require staff to address transgender students using their chosen name and pronouns, violate a provision in the order prohibiting public schools from helping a student’s “social” gender transition. When a person socially transitions, they typically change their name, pronouns or clothing to best align with their gender identity. Social transition does not include any medical interventions. In its complaint to the Education Department, America First Legal said the districts’ transgender policies “provide greater rights to students whose ‘gender identity’ does not match their biological sex than it does to students whose ‘gender identity’ matches their biological sex.” “Thus, these policies erase the very concept of biological sex in favor of ‘gender identity’ and codify discrimination ‘on the basis of sex,’” the group wrote. The Education Department did not immediately return a request for comment. The school districts mentioned in the complaint are in predominantly blue areas of Virginia, which former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024, and have previously rejected calls from Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s administration to roll back certain nondiscrimination protections for transgender students. Model transgender policies finalized by Youngkin’s Education Department in 2023 sought to prevent schools from granting trans students access to facilities and sports teams that match their gender identity and allow their peers and teachers to misgender them. The model policies, which sparked student-led protests across the state, did not include an enforcement mechanism. Prince William County Public Schools (PWCS) confirmed to The Hill on Monday that the Education Department had notified it of the investigation. “PWCS will, of course, cooperate with the investigation,” the school district said in an emailed statement. “PWCS remains committed to providing a welcoming, nurturing learning environment where all of our students feel safe and supported mentally, physically, and emotionally.” Loudoun County Public Schools said it “is aware of the investigation and will respond in accordance with the law.”
Deportation of Miami teacher exposes bipartisan character of attack on immigrants - In a chilling example of the bipartisan assault on immigrant rights, a 24-year-old Miami-Dade County middle school science teacher, a Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipient, was detained and deported to Honduras by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The school where the young man taught was not notified of his removal. He simply stopped showing up for his classes. After a few days, the school administration reached out to his family and learned that ICE had detained him. The exact reason for the teacher’s detention and deportation remains unclear. DACA recipients must regularly renew their status every two years. Detention and deportation can be triggered by failing to meet DACA eligibility requirements, such as maintaining a clean criminal record, continuing education or employment, or the timely submitting of renewal applications. The deportation took place under the Biden administration, one week before Trump’s inauguration. The cruelty of the action, depriving children of a teacher in the middle of the school year, to say nothing of the impact on the young man himself and his own family, is characteristic of the US immigration system, regardless of which party is in power. The teacher’s deportation is not an isolated incident but rather a continuation of policies that have seen Democratic administrations deport even more immigrants than their Republican counterparts. While the Trump administration’s rhetoric and policies have been ferociously hostile to immigrants, the groundwork for mass deportations was laid by previous administrations, including that of Barack Obama, who left office in 2017 with the well-deserved hatred of immigrant workers, who labeled him the “deporter in chief.” When it comes to immigration enforcement, both major corporate parties have embraced harsh deportation policies. During the George W. Bush administration (2001–2009), about 2 million individuals were deported—with annual figures rising from roughly 189,000 in FY 2001 to around 359,000 by FY 2008. President Obama deported over 3.2 million people between 2009-2017, peaking at nearly 415,000 removals in FY 2012. The first Trump administration deported just under 1 million individuals over four years—with a high of 267,000 in FY 2019, while the Biden administration certainly exceeded Trump’s total. While complete data for the final months of the Biden administration are not yet publicly available, existing reports indicate a significant increase in deportations during fiscal year 2024.
Michigan teachers join rank-and-file campaign to defend immigrants and public education -- At an online meeting Sunday, February 16, Michigan teachers and supporters voted to endorse a statement issued by the Educators Rank-and File Committee (ERFC) titled “Hands off immigrant children and parents! Build the Educators Rank-and-File Committee to defend democratic rights.” Throughout the intense and lively meeting, teachers expressed their anger over the Trump administration’s attacks on education, democratic rights, and immigrants and their determination to fight. Chairing the meeting, Nancy Hanover explained the unique character of the Educators Rank-and-File Committee as part of the International Workers Alliance of Rank-and-File Committees. “This organization unites workers both across industries and across borders,” she said. “We’re not a pressure group. We’re not organizing to beg the unions to take action or to pressure the Democrats to fight. We base ourselves on the fundamental class power of workers. This is the only force that is both willing and able to stop the rampage against education, jobs, fascism, and war.” Phyllis Steele, an elementary school teacher in Detroit, introduced the ERFC statement. She characterized Trump’s claim that the US is being “invaded” by immigrants as a flagrant lie, designed to provide a legal pretext for his attacks on immigrants. She discussed the ending of any restrictions on school raids by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents and the plans to overturn the US Supreme Court ruling in the 1982 landmark Plyler v. Doe case, which upheld the right of all children to free public education, regardless of immigration status. “Teachers are immensely proud that we serve all children, regardless of immigration status,” Steele said, explaining that “Trump’s agenda includes mass deportations, overturning birthright citizenship, and using the military to round up immigrants, even transporting them to Guantanamo Bay. He has also threatened the so-called ‘enemy within,’ with rhetoric designed to silence us and our freedom of speech, and justify authoritarian rule.” “This assault is the spearhead on the rights of the entire working class, both native and foreign-born,” Steele pointed out. But the outcome of this struggle will not be decided by lawsuits, she cautioned. “What will determine it will be the struggle of the working class.” She called on attendees to build the ERFC and to reach out to all sections of the working class. Speaking first in the discussion, a Detroit Public School Community District (DPSCD) teacher Alyssa said some of her coworkers felt they’ve “already lost the war.” She said, “I’ve had to remind them that we’ve just begun the fight. We haven’t lost anything. A lot of us are walking around like we don’t still have our rights. We still have all of our constitutionally protected rights. “We still have the right to fight. And we have to fight for our children. We are their first line of defense. Teachers always have been. Once we get involved and we start to inform not only our neighbors, but their parents too, because they are part of the working class, we can get this moving. We can fight back.”
President of NYU College Republicans resigns after calling Barron Trump ‘an oddity’ - The head of the New York University College Republicans resigned after calling President Donald Trump’s youngest son an “oddity on campus.” Kaya Walker described NYU freshman Barron Trump to Vanity Fair last week as “sort of like an oddity on campus,” adding “he goes to class, he goes home.” She also told the magazine that one of her professors joked that the first son “doesn’t really belong here,” referring to the school’s historically liberal politics. In response, College Republicans of America said in a statement Monday that Walker’s do “not align with the values and principles upheld by our organization.” While the group blasted the media’s portrayal of her comments, they said they sill found them “inappropriate.” “We are collaborating closely with the NYU chapter to ensure a smooth transition in leadership. Our goal is to reaffirm CRA's dedication to the ideals of the Republican Party and conservative movement in a manner that reflects honorably upon our organization and its mission,” the statement continued.The organization broke with “100 years of precedent” when it endorsed Donald Trump in January 2024, ahead of the primaries. “Our support for President Trump is, and has been, a pillar of our organization,” the group said. Walker has not spoken out about leaving the organization, or the controversy she created with her comments.In response to the recent comments, the organization extended an invitation to Barron to join the College Republicans."Barron Trump represents the future of the conservative movement, and we would be honored to have him join College Republicans of America," CRA President Will Donahue said in a statement. "Strong leadership is built on resilience, courage, and the humility to rise above petty hostility - qualities that Barron has already demonstrated. We invite Barron to join us in shaping the future of our party."
Students protest at UCLA against the suspension of two pro-Palestinian clubs - On February 18, over 100 students protested the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) administration’s February 12 decision to suspend two pro-Palestinian clubs from campus, the Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) and Graduate Students for Justice in Palestine (GSJP). The interim suspension was in retaliation for a protest organized by the SJP, GSJP and UCLA Rank and File for a Democratic Union (UAW4811) on February 5 which targeted the multi-million dollar home of UC regent Jonathan “Jay” Sures. The suspension will prevent both the SJP and GSJP from reserving space for meetings on campus, applying for student club funding, or affiliating themselves with UCLA, according to the UCLA Office of Student Conduct. Additional disciplinary action could be levied against the SJP and GSJP once the review of the suspensions are complete. Sures, who falsely claimed that he was targeted for his Jewish heritage, has consistently conflated protests opposing the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza as synonymous with support for terrorism and Hamas. The GSJP stated on social media that regent Sures was targeted for protest due to his close affiliation to the Anti-Defamation League (ADL)—which has slandered protests demanding a ceasefire as “antisemitic”—and his open support for the actions of the Netanyahu regime. Jonathan Greenblatt, CEO of the ADL, which pathetically excused Elon Musk’s fascist Nazi salute during an event celebrating President Donald Trump’s inauguration as “an ‘awkward’ moment” and “not a nazi salute,” has supported the suspensions at UCLA, posting on X: “Protesters calling for the elimination of the state of Israel in front of the home of UC Regent Jay Sures is unacceptable. Law enforcement should fully investigate, and prosecutors should be charging those responsible. Our leaders need to put their foot down against such boldfaced bigotry – before the madness escalates further.” Regent Sures is vice chairman and managing director of the United Talent Agency, which represents and has partnered with the ADL, and serves on the boards of governors for two laboratories that test and develop nuclear weapons for the US. Sures is also a board member of the Los Angeles Police Foundation, which raises money for the LAPD, the same agency that was called out on February 5 to protect his Brentwood mansion from student protesters.
Judge refuses to block DOGE's access to student borrower data --A federal judge Monday evening declined to block Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) from gaining access to Education Department data on student borrowers. U.S. District Judge Randolph Moss ruled that the University of California Student Association (USCA), which brought the lawsuit, had not shown sufficient irreparable harm to receive such immediate relief. “Because the Court concludes that UCSA has failed to clear that essential hurdle, the Court’s analysis also ends there,” wrote Moss, who was appointed by former President Obama. “The Court leaves for another day consideration of whether USCA’s has standing to sue and has stated a claim upon which relief may be granted. Those questions are less clear cut and are better answered on a more complete record,” Moss continued. Musk’s DOGE has moved rapidly since President Trump’s inauguration to install employees at federal agencies with an aim of cutting trillions of dollars in government spending, quickly drawing legal challenges. The student government raised alarm that Musk’s team would be able to access students’ personal data, including tax information, submitted to the Education Department as part of federal financial aid applications. The lawsuit claims the access violated federal privacy laws. “ED and DOGE staffers are obligated to use UCSA members’ information for lawful purposes within the mission of the Department of Education and to keep it confidential, in accordance with the Privacy Act, tax laws, and other federal law,” Moss noted in his ruling.
University of California healthcare workers vote overwhelmingly for strike, again - Thousands of University of California (UC) healthcare, research and technical workers have overwhelmingly voted to authorize a strike, against years of worsening conditions and amid growing opposition to the relentless attacks on jobs, wages and work environment by the university’s corporate-backed administration. Nearly 20,000 workers—including nurse case managers, mental health counselors, pharmacists and lab technicians— members of the University Professional and Technical Employees-CWA Local 9119 (UPTE), plan to walk out for three days starting February 26, in protest of UC’s ongoing austerity measures and union-backed concessions. For years, UC workers have suffered under crushing workloads, staff shortages and stagnating wages, all while university executives amass wealth and lavish salaries. Mental health counselors, lab researchers, pharmacists and IT analysts are pushed to their limits, struggling to provide critical services for students and the broader community. These workers are crucial in the operation of hospitals, clinics and critical research on cancer, climate change and infectious diseases. Lab technicians at UC Davis, instrumental in tracking the spread of bird flu, are among those participating. Workers are demanding an end to chronic understaffing and the ever-increasing workloads that undermine patient care and scientific research. However, UC administrators, acting on behalf of the corporate and political elite, have dismissed workers’ demands, imposing draconian restrictions on picketing and retaliating against workers who participated in a previous strike last November. While workers have voted by 98 percent to strike, their struggle faces significant dangers as the UPTE leadership continues to isolate their fight, keeping it separate from the broader working class and limiting it to fruitless appeals to UC’s corporate management. The union has already delayed action for months and refuses to mobilize the full strength of the working class against these attacks.
We are no longer living longer, study shows - The rise in human life expectancy has slowed down across Europe since 2011, according to research from the University of East Anglia and partners.A new study, published in The Lancet Public Health, reveals that the food we eat, physical inactivity and obesity are largely to blame, as well as the COVID pandemic. Of all the countries studied, England experienced the biggest slowdown in life expectancy. It means that rather than looking forward to living longer than our parents or grandparents, we may find that we are dying sooner. The team says that in order to extend our old age, we need to prioritize healthier lifestyles in our younger years—with governments urged to invest in bold public health initiatives. "Advances in public health and medicine in the 20th Century meant that life expectancy in Europe improved year after year. But this is no longer the case. "From 1990 to 2011, reductions in deaths from cardiovascular diseases and cancers continued to lead to substantial improvements in life expectancy. "But decades of steady improvements finally slowed around 2011, with marked international differences. "We found that deaths from cardiovascular diseases were the primary driver of the reduction in life expectancy improvements between 2011–19. Unsurprisingly, the COVID pandemic was responsible for decreases in life expectancy seen between 2019–21. "After 2011, major risks such as obesity, high blood pressure and high cholesterol either increased or stopped improving in almost all countries. "Better cholesterol and blood pressure treatments have not been enough to offset the harms from obesity and poor diets," he added. "Comparing countries, national policies that improved population health were linked to better resilience to future shocks." "Countries like Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, and Belgium held onto better life expectancy after 2011, and saw reduced harm from major risks for heart disease, helped by government policies. "In contrast, England and the other UK nations fared worst after 2011 and also during the COVID pandemic, and experienced some of the highest risks for heart disease and cancer, including poor diets.
Report: Improving oxygen access, pandemic preparedness could save millions of lives Investment in medical oxygen systems could save millions of lives by filling gaps in oxygen access for more than half the world's population and boosting pandemic preparedness, says a report published yesterday inThe Lancet Global Health.The Lancet Global Health Commission on medical oxygen, made up of an international slate of experts, was convened in 2022 to prevent crises such as the COVID-19 supply shortages from recurring and to speed achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by making recommendations on medical oxygen to governments, industry, global health agencies, donors, and the healthcare workforce. The group estimated acute medical, surgical, and long-term oxygen therapy needs by conducting systematic literature reviews, integrating Global Burden of Disease data, and consulting experts to inform model estimates. They also interviewed patients, caregivers, and healthcare providers about their experiences. Every year, nearly 400 million children and adults around the world require medical oxygen for short-term needs during acute illness and surgery and in the long term owing to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). But more than 5 billion people (60% of the global population) lack access to safe and affordable medical oxygen services, according to a news release from Australia's Murdoch Children's Research Institute (MCRI), a member of the Lancet commission.
Data suggest Paxlovid doesn't reduce severe COVID in older, vaccinated adults - A study yesterday in JAMA suggests Paxlovid, the oral antiviral approved for use against severe COVID-19 symptoms, did little to lessen the risk of hospitalizations and death among older, vaccinated adults in Canada. Pfizer’s initial clinical trials on the drug were conducted on unvaccinated adults, the authors said, with median ages of 42 to 46 years. Older adults are more likely than younger adults to be vaccinated against COVID-19 and are at the greatest risk of severe complications from the virus. The study looked at all-cause mortality and all-cause hospitalizations in adults in Ontario, Canada. Between April 1 and November 30, 2022, Ontario implemented an age-restrictive policy on access to Paxlovid, with only those 70 and older able to get the drug.“Since the strongest predictor of severe COVID-19 is advanced age, it has been crucial to obtain evidence on whether the results of the Pfizer trials generalized to older and vaccinated populations,” said John Mafi, MD the study’s lead author in a press release from the Univeristy of California Los Angeles.The authors compared outcomes among adults just under 70 years who were not prescribed Paxlovid to those who were given the antiviral. The authors identified 1,620,884 Ontarians aged 65 to 74 years during the study period; most (87.5%) received at least 2 COVID-19 vaccines.Overall, the authors found the prescription rate of Paxlovid more than doubled after the age-based policy was put in place, increasing by 118% at age 70.But the increased use of Paxlovid did not result in fewer hospitalizations or deaths for those treated with the medicine.There were no significant differences just below compared with just above age 70 years (per 10,000 patients per month) in COVID-19-related hospitalizations (39.5 vs 42.9) or all-cause mortality (109.6 vs 115.7).The authors said the study showed Paxlovid’s effect on COVID-19 hospitalization among vaccinated older adults is four times weaker than the effect originally reported in Pfizer’s 2022 clinical trial, reducing hospitalizations by 1.3 percentage points. The original clinical trial showed an absolute risk reduction of 5.5 percentage points against hospitalizations.
ACIP postponement, shelving of CDC vaccine campaigns stir fears -- In a week that began with mass firings of professionals at federal health agencies, other moves made this week by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) are raising concerns among public health experts.Among them was the postponement of the upcoming meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), which was scheduled for next week and had votes on several vaccines on the agenda. ACIP holds full-committee public meetings at least three times a year to review evidence on vaccines and vote on new recommendations. The February 26-28 meeting was to be the first under new HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.Although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is not required to accept the recommendations of ACIP advisers, the agency has traditionally adopted those recommendations and based adult and child immunization schedules on them, as have groups like the American Academy of Pediatricians. ACIP recommendations also play a role in determining which vaccines are covered by health insurers."Postponing a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices delays vital discussions and needed decisions on a variety of vaccines by trusted and well-vetted experts," Infectious Diseases Society of America President Tina Tan, MD, said in a statement. "ACIP relies on a well-established, transparent and evidence-based process for evaluating the optimal use of vaccines that plays a critical role in strengthening public health."The postponement is adding to fears that Kennedy, a longtime critic of vaccines who in the past has accused ACIP members of conflict of interest, could make changes to the group. Voting members of ACIP are appointed by the HHS secretary and serve overlapping terms of up to 4 years. Reporting by Politicoindicates that ACIP is among the advisory committees that Kennedy is targeting for changes, and there has been concern that he may appoint people with anti-vaccine views to the panel.HHS has not yet said when the ACIP meeting will be rescheduled. Meanwhile, changes to the CDC's promotional campaigns for various vaccines could be forthcoming. Earlier this week, National Public Radio reported that the agency was stopping its "wild to mild" flu vaccination campaign, which was launched in September 2023. The idea behind the campaign was to promote how well flu vaccines work at preventing serious outcomes, like emergency department visits and hospitalizations, even if they don't always prevent infection.Stat reported yesterday that the campaign was one of several to be pulled, and that CDC officials were told that Kennedy wants future vaccine campaigns to promote the idea of "informed consent" in vaccine decision-making. Informed consent is an ethical and legal requirement that aims to ensure patients understand the risks and benefits of medical treatments before agreeing to those treatments.Tan said that pulling promotional campaigns for vaccines "leaves Americans with fewer tools to make critical decisions in consultation with their doctors to protect themselves and their families." She called on Congress to hold Kennedy accountable for actions that could undermine vaccines."Weakening our nation's vaccine infrastructure will lead to significantly lower immunization rates and result in many more outbreaks of serious, preventable hospitalizations and deaths," she said.HHS did not respond to a request to confirm the status of the CDC's vaccine promotion campaigns. In other news, an executive order issued this week by the Trump administration calls for the termination of the HHS Secretary's Advisory Committee on Long COVID, a group that included long-COVID scientists and experts from several universities. The committee, which was established in November 2023, was still recruiting members and had yet to hold a meeting. The order also terminated the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Health Equity Advisory Committee. Also created under the Biden administration, the committee aimed to address structural racism and systemic barriers in CMS programs. The two were among several federal advisory committees and programs axed under the order, which seeks to reduce "elements of the Federal bureaucracy that the President has determined are unnecessary."
HHS to maintain free at-home COVID tests by mail—for now - The Trump administration for now will keep offering free COVID tests by mail as it considers whether to store or destroy the stockpile of 160 million tests, both of which come with significant financial costs, theWashington Post reported today.Federal officials speaking off the record initially told the Post that the website for ordering the tests would go offline on February 18, but a Department of Health and Human Services spokesman later told the Post that the free test program would remain for now as the government discusses closing the current round of tests. The spokesman also said the tests would be kept in the stockpile until they reach their expiration date. Federal officials told the post that only a small fraction of the tests in the government stockpile are expired. In late August, federal officials had announced a new round of free at-home tests by mail as a tool to reduce virus spread over the fall and winter respiratory virus season. The offer marked the seventh round of free COVID tests since 2021. At that time, the mail delivery program and year-round access of free tests in settings such as community clinics had delivered more than 1.8 million tests.
A new virus in china: Another pandemic? China scientists discover new bat coronavirus that poses risk of animal-to-human transmission - Is another pandemic on cards? A Chinese team has found a new bat coronavirus that carries the risk of animal-to-human transmission because it uses the same human receptor as the virus that causes Covid-19. The virus, named HKU5-CoV-2, was found to use the same human receptor as SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19.According to a report in South China Morning Post, the study was led by Shi Zhengli- a leading virologist, often dubbed as "batwoman", due to her extensive research on bat coronaviruses. This comes after a surge in cases of the flu-like human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in China raised fears of another Covid-style pandemic. Images of hospitals overrun with masked patients have circulated widely on social media, but health experts say HMPV is not like Covid, and point out it has been around for many years. They say China and other countries are simply experiencing the seasonal increase in HMPV typically seen in winter. While there is still no consensus on the origin of the newly discovered virus HKU5-CoV-2, some studies suggest it originated in bats and jumped to humans through an intermediate animal host. Shi has denied that the institute was to blame for the outbreak, the report said.The research involved scientists from the Guangzhou Laboratory, Guangzhou Academy of Sciences, Wuhan University, and the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Their findings were published in the peer-reviewed journal Cell on Tuesday.The latest discovery is a new lineage of the HKU5 coronavirus first identified in the Japanese pipistrelle bat in Hong Kong. The new virus comes from the merbecovirus subgenus, which also includes the virus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers).The research found that HKU5-CoV-2 can bind to the human angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE2) receptor, the same receptor used by SARS-CoV-2 to infect human cells. "We report the discovery and isolation of a distinct lineage (lineage 2) of HKU5-CoV, which can utilise not only bat ACE2 but also human ACE2 and various mammalian ACE2 orthologs," the scientists wrote.Lab tests revealed that the virus can infect human cells and artificially-grown lung and intestine tissues. It can also bind to ACE2 receptors in humans, bats, and other animals, increasing the likelihood of cross-species transmission. Even though HKU5-CoV-2 has a stronger binding ability than its original strain with a wider range of hosts, the researchers emphasized that it is far less potent than SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, and the risk of widespread human transmission is low ..
Hospital air cleaners may boost aerosol spread of viruses in some areas Built-in mechanical ventilation and portable air cleaners (PACs), used by hospitals to help mitigate the spread of viruses, may actually spread viruses and other pathogens in some instances, according to new research from scientists at the University College London (UCL). The findings were recently published in Aerosol Science and Technology.The authors of the study constructed an experiment tracking airborne particles around UCL hospital (UCLH) outpatient clinic during a number of simulated scenarios. The researchers used aerosol generators dispersing saline solution in certain rooms, with particle detectors in other rooms to track the movement of particles around the clinic, including the nursing stations, waiting rooms, and corridors.Particle spread was uneven: In some scenarios, particles were reduced by ventilation and PACs by up to 96%. But the authors also noted that neighboring rooms had unexpectedly increased aerosol migration of 29% due to exhaust mechanics.Closing consulting room (CR) doors put significant limitations on virus spread, but portable PACs at nursing stations and check-in desks had limited effect on reducing spread."When all CR doors were opened, and the subsequent migration of aerosols in the presence of PACs and mechanical supply/extract ventilation was analyzed it revealed that the air currents in a volume can be complicated, and lead to potentially unexpected results," the authors wrote."Putting air cleaners in rooms led to unexpected increases in the circulation of aerosols in some cases, but it took months to understand what we were seeing. Each scenario produced different, unexpected results, depending on the spaces and airflow sources involved," said Laurence Lovat, PhD, a senior author of the study in a press release from UCL. "Even at UCLH, a modern hospital built less than 20 years ago, airflow patterns were not predictable. In older hospitals, which often have natural draughts, the situation would likely be even more complex."
Report: Illnesses from contaminated food increased in 2024, severe cases doubled --The number of Americans with confirmed illness caused by contaminated food rose by 25% last year, according to a new report from the US Public Interest Research Group (PIRG) Education Fund.The Food for Thought 2025 report shows a total of 1,392 Americans in 2024 became ill after consuming a contaminated food item, up from 1,118 in 2023. What's more, the number of hospitalizations more than doubled, rising from 230 to 487, and deaths climbed from 8 to 19. Nearly all (98%) of the people became ill from food that was recalled in 13 outbreaks with confirmed illnesses, all but 1 of which involved either Listeria, Salmonella, or Escherichia coli. "We saw a dramatic increase in serious illness and deaths associated with unsafe food," the authors of the report wrote. "The biggest threats stem from Listeria, Salmonella, and E. coli." Because many people recover from food poisoning without medical attention, the true numbers are likely much higher. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimates that 1 in every 6 Americans becomes ill every year from contaminated food or beverages. Yet at the same time, the 296 food recall announcements from the two agencies that regulate all food sold in the United States—the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)—represented a 5% decline from 2023. While FDA recalls rose by 8%, USDA recalls fell by 38%. The authors say the overall decline could be the result of fewer inspections or fewer people reporting foodborne illness, and not an indication that food was any safer in 2024. Although the number of food recall announcements were down, foodborne-illness outbreaks were in the headlines in 2024, not only because of their size but also because they involved some of the country's most well-known food brands. Among those was the multistate Listeria monocytogenes outbreak linked to Boar's Head deli meat. The 19-state outbreak sickened 61 people, 60 of whom were hospitalized, and is suspected in the deaths of 10 people. An investigation by the USDA identified multiple food safety lapses at a Boar's Head facility in Virginia that produced liverwurst, which was identified as the source of the outbreak. The plant was closed indefinitely on September 13. Another was an outbreak of E coli O157:H7 tied to Quarter Pounder hamburgers sold at McDonald's. The outbreak sickened 104 people in 14 states, with 34 hospitalizations and 1 death. The FDA identified raw slivered onions as the likely source of contamination in that outbreak. Other major outbreaks included a multistate outbreak of Salmonella tied to cucumbers that resulted in 551 cases and 155 hospitalizations in 34 states and the District of Columbia. The outbreak led Fresh Start Produce Sales Inc. to issue a cucumber recall on May 31. Another Salmonella outbreak in November connected to cucumbers grown in Mexico caused 113 illnesses in 23 states, including 28 hospitalizations. There were also notable outbreaks involving eggs, fresh basil, and charcuterie meats contaminated withSalmonella; queso fresco and cotija cheese contaminated with Listeria; and organic carrots, organic walnuts, and raw cheddar cheese contaminated with E coli. Overall, the report finds that while the single biggest reason for food recalls last year was undeclared allergens or ingredients, the number of recalls because of Listeria, Salmonella, and E coli increased by 41% and accounted for 39% of all recalls in 2024. Recalls because of Listeria contamination rose from 47 to 65, and recalls for Salmonella increased from 27 to 41.
FDA food chief, an EPA vet, resigns over Trump admin firings - The Food and Drug Administration’s top official on food safety abruptly resigned, citing the Trump administration’s firings.As first reported by Food Fix, Jim Jones left his post as FDA’s deputy commissioner for the human foods program over the “indiscriminate firing” of 89 employees. “I was looking forward to working to pursue the Department’s agenda of improving the health of Americans by reducing diet-related chronic disease and risks from chemicals in food,” Jones wrote to the agency’s acting commissioner in a letter reviewed by multiple news outlets. “It has been increasingly clear that with the Trump Administration’s disdain for the very people necessary to implement your agenda, however, it would have been fruitless for me to continue in this role.” Jones, who helped lead the push toward FDA’s recent ban on food dye red No. 3, told STAT News that “many” of the 89 people fired “were going to be doing chemical safety work” or “nutrition work.”
Pediatric flu deaths jump to 68, with 11 children dying in the last reported week alone amid media blackout - The latest influenza data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), for the week ending February 8, shows an increase in flu-associated mortality which has already claimed 13,000 lives this season. Particularly troubling are 11 flu deaths in children in the week between February 2-8 alone, bringing the total pediatric flu deaths this season to 68. All indicators point to the likelihood that the ongoing 2024-2025 flu season will surpass recent years’ figures for both pediatric and adult flu deaths in the United States. This past week the CDC indicated that it was updating the classification of the season to “high severity” for all age-groups for the first time since the 2017-18 season. Every state is reporting significant increases in influenza hospitalizations. Dr. John Swartzberg, clinical professor emeritus at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health told the California based Mercury News, “This may become the worst influenza season we’ve had so far in the 21st century,” with infection reporting data showing that patients are presenting evenly with both H3N2, subtypes of influenza A and H1N1.
- For the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic began, influenza is causing more deaths in California than the coronavirus, according to the state’s Department of Public Health with a total of 751 confirmed flu deaths in the state. Eleven of those are of children, with San Diego County alone reporting four deaths. The ages of the children were 14, 15, 16, and 17 years old and officials confirmed that none of them had received their influenza vaccine.
- Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Virginia are each reporting two children have died in each state. In Virginia one child between the ages of 5 and 12, and the other was between 13 and 17.
- One child in Kentucky was reported having died, no further information was given but officials confirmed that the child had not received a flu vaccine this season.
- Five children have died so far in Texas, according to the latest data from the Texas Department of State Health Services. Only two media outlets have reported the five deaths.
These figures represent only what is being reported in the media and comprise less than half of the total pediatric deaths, pointing to a government and media blackout of critical public health information. Florida’s Weekly Flu Review for the week ending February 8, 2025, makes reference to pediatric flu deaths this season, but the agency does not specific give a specific number. Schools have also been shut down in a number of states as large percentages of students, staff, and teachers have been out sick. These include schools in Texas, where at least three districts closed schools, as well as in Ohio, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, Virginia, Oklahoma, Iowa and Missouri. The greatest contributing factor to the high levels of sickness is the decline in the percentage of children receiving the annual flu vaccine since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Flu vaccination rates were highest for the 2019- 2020 flu season that ran October 2019 through May 2020 when 63.7 percent of children received at least one dose of the vaccine. According to WebMD and figures from the CDC, as of December 2024, only 37 percent of children had received flu shots, down from 44 percent at the same time the previous year. This means that more than 40 percent fewer children are receiving the influenza vaccine than were five years ago. This staggering figure suggests that since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the anti-vaccination campaigns led by the far right and anti-science hacks such as Health and Human Services secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. have had a significant and detrimental effect on the wider population. According to the CDC, there have so far been at least 29 million people infected with influenza, resulting in 370,000 hospitalizations and 16,000 deaths. The best way to prevent severe illness and death is vaccination. The CDC estimates that in 2023, influenza vaccination prevented approximately 6 million illnesses, 65,000 hospitalizations, and 3,700 deaths.
US flu still high, COVID low but elevated in some areas, RSV declining, CDC says -- US flu activity ebbed a bit but remained high and above the baseline for the 12th straight week last week, with more than 43,000 hospitalizations and 18 deaths, all of them children, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its weekly surveillance report. The CDC also noted 18 new pediatric flu deaths and said it "does not anticipate" posting any more updates on respiratory disease activity this season.COVID-19 levels are at low but elevated levels in many parts of the country, while respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases are at moderate levels and declining, the CDC reported. The peak for COVID-related hospital demand was lower this season than all previous seasons and nearly 50% lower than last season's peak.Flu test positivity was 26.9%, down from 31.6% the previous week, while outpatient visits dropped from 7.8% to 6.8%. Flu is high or very high in 44 jurisdictions in a season classified as high severity for all age-groups.Of the 2,486 flu viruses public health laboratories reported, 96% were influenza A and 4% were influenza B. Among the 1,788 influenza A viruses subtyped, 62% were the 2009 H1N1 strain, 38% were H3N2, and none were H5, which would indicate avian flu.The CDC estimates that, so far this season, 19,000 people have died from flu and 430,000 people have been admitted to hospitals.The agency also confirmed 18 new flu-related deaths in children, bringing the total for the 2024-25 flu season to 86. Seventeen of those deaths were attributed to influenza A, and the other to influenza B. Of 12 fatal influenza A viruses subtyped, 9 were H1N1 and 3 were H3N2.The number of people seeking care for an acute respiratory illness was high last week, with very high activity in Delaware, Kansas, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oklahoma, Maryland, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. the CDC said. Test positivity for COVID-19 (4.5%) and RSV (6.6%) was comparable to last week's proportions.Wastewater viral activity is high for influenza A, while it is moderate for COVID-19 and low for RSV. Other respiratory illness at high levels include pertussis (whooping cough), Mycoplasma pneumonia, and group AStreptococcus infections.The CDC said it doesn't anticipate producing additional respiratory disease outlook updates for the rest of the season, but it's unclear if it will still post updates solely on flu activity.
New calculation method estimates 380,000 US flu hospitalizations in 2022-23 -- In the 2022-23 respiratory virus season, 379,300 people in the United State were hospitalized for influenza, with median cumulative state rates of 23.2 to 249.0 per 100,000 people, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-led research team reports.The aim of the study, recently published in theAmerican Journal of Public Health, was to develop a way to use hospital-based surveillance to estimate hospitalizations for flu by state, age, and month and, ultimately, improve flu burden estimation."Although the CDC has a long-established history of estimating the influenza disease burden at the national level, routine and robust methods to estimate state-level influenza-related hospitalization burdens have been lacking," the researchers wrote.States often report crude or unadjusted flu hospitalization data from FluSurv-NET or the National Healthcare Safety Network, which the authors said may underestimate the true disease burden owing to multiple underdetection factors, they added. A total of 379,300 people were hospitalized for flu from October 2022 to April 2023, with a cumulative hospitalization rate of 114.5 per 100,000 people. Median cumulative state rates were 23.2 (Alaska) to 249.0 (New York) per 100,000 people. The highest cumulative rate was seen among those aged 85 years or older (625.2 per 100,000 people), and the lowest was among those aged 18 to 49 (47.7 per 100,000).Overall, the researchers' model estimates captured state hospitalization time trends and slightly more cases than other sources of reported hospitalizations at the state level, probably owing to adjustments for testing probability and diagnostic sensitivity. "Our estimates were comparable to national burden estimates incorporating other approaches while accounting for variations in the timing and geography of disease activity and changes in detection and reporting," the researchers wrote. "Our results provide a complementary framework to calculate estimates at finer geographic scales."
UK study finds 2% of primary care antibiotic prescriptions were for RSV—a viral illness -Data from general practitioners (GPs) in England over a 4-year period show 2% of antibiotic prescriptions were for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections, mainly in young kids and older adults, despite the fact that antibiotics don't target viruses, researchers reported today in the Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.Using antibiotic prescribing data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed respiratory infections, a team led by researchers at Imperial College London estimated weekly antibiotic prescriptions attributable to RSV by GPs from December 29, 2014, to December 30, 2018. CPRD represents roughly 23% of the English population and broadly reflects national demographics.The researchers found that 2.1% of all antibiotic prescriptions and 4.3% of respiratory antibiotic prescriptions were attributable to RSV infection across all ages, amounting to an annual average of 639,908 antibiotic prescriptions per year. Infants aged 6 to 23 months had the highest rates of RSV-attributable prescriptions, with an annual average of 6,580 prescriptions per 100,000 individuals. Adults aged 75 and over had the highest annual volume of RSV-attributable prescriptions at 149,078. Across all ages, penicillins accounted for the most RSV-attributable prescriptions, followed by macrolides and tetracyclines. Adults aged 65 and over were prescribed a wider range of antibiotic classes for RSV compared with younger age-groups, a finding the authors say may be related to the increased challenge of diagnosing RSV in that age-group.
Ten more measles cases—58 total—confirmed in Texas outbreak The Texas Department of State Health Services (TDSHS) today reported 10 more measles cases in an outbreak centered in a pocket of western rural counties, raising the outbreak total to 58 since early February. Three more infections were confirmed in Gaines County, which has been the epicenter and now has 45 cases. Six more measles cases were reported in neighboring Terry County. And Lubbock County has its first case. Cases have now been detected in five Texas counties, all in the same region in west-central Texas near the border with New Mexico.The number of patients hospitalized remained at 13. Four patients were vaccinated, and the remaining patients were unvaccinated or their status is unknown. Roughly half of the cases involve school-age children."Due to the highly contagious nature of this disease, additional cases are likely to occur in Gaines County and the surrounding communities," the TDSHS said. Earlier this week, the New Mexico Department of Health declared a measles outbreak in Lea County, which borders Gaines County. Officials said ties to the Texas outbreak are suspected but haven't been confirmed. Health department in other states are closely monitoring developments in Texas and have urged parents to ensure that their children are up to date with measles vaccine doses. In a press release today, the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) warned of an uptick in cases in several states, including Texas and Georgia, and noted how contagious the virus is: Infected people can spread measles for as long as 3 weeks.Karen Landers, MD, ADPH chief medical officer, said, "One of the main messages we want to emphasize is that measles follows a pattern in which the child first develops fever, cough, runny nose, and watery/red eyes, then a rash develops. Persons can start spreading the virus up to four days before symptoms appear, and those with weak immune systems can spread the measles virus longer."
Why Texas measles outbreak may be ‘the tip of a bigger iceberg’ - The ongoing Texas measles outbreak has rapidly grown to the largest the state has seen in decades, spreading through mostly unvaccinated residents and creeping across both county and state lines.On Friday morning, the Texas Department of State Health Services reported there are now 90 confirmed cases across seven counties in Texas. That’s not counting the nine cases reported by New Mexico health officials as of Thursday evening. exas health officials believe the ongoing outbreak began in a Mennonite community in Gaines County. The county seat, Seminole, sits near the New Mexico border, about 350 miles west of Dallas and 80 miles southwest of Lubbock. The outbreak has pushed Texas into record-setting territory. Less than two months into the year, the state has already reported more measles cases in 2025 than seen in any full year since 1992, according to historic data from the state health department.And the case count is likely to continue growing, according to infectious disease experts and health care providers in the region. “It’s probably the tip of a bigger iceberg,” said Dr. Paul Offit, a professor and the director of the Vaccine Education Program at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia.While the ongoing outbreak has garnered public attention and triggered some amount of fear and anxiety among residents, local medical providers say the cases have not strained the health care system. Dr. Lara Johnson, a pediatrician and the chief medical officer at Covenant Children’s Hospital in Lubbock, said her hospital has admitted around a dozen children who have measles. Some have needed higher level care, but none have been critically ill.“Anytime your child has to be in the hospital, it’s pretty concerning for parents,” Johnson said. The measles outbreak offers a preview of what other communities across the U.S. could experience as childhood vaccination rates drop nationwide.
Quick takes: New Mexico measles outbreak; FDA clears chikungunya, meningococcal vaccines | CIDRAP
- The New Mexico Department of Health (NMDOH) has declared a measles outbreak, following the confirmation of illnesses in two Lea County adults. In a February 14 statement, the agency said Lea County now has three cases. Lea County borders a Texas county that is in the midst of a quickly growing outbreak. The NMDOH said a connection to the rapidly growing outbreak in Gaines County, Texas, is suspected but hasn't been confirmed. Exposures for the recent cases were reported at a variety of locations, including a school, a grocery store, a church, a pharmacy, and a hospital emergency department. Elsewhere, the New Jersey Department of Health on February 14 reported a measles infection in a resident of Bergen County who had recently traveled internationally. It is working with local officials on contact tracing and contacting people who may have been exposed.
- Bavarian Nordic (BN) announced that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved its recombinant virus-like-particle single-dose vaccine against chikungunya, which can be used in people as young as 12 years old. In a February 14 statement, BN said the FDA approved Vimkunya as part of a priority review, based on two phase 3 clinical trials in people ages 12 and older. The company said the vaccine, expected to be commercially available in the first half of 2025, fills an unmet need for chikungunya prevention in young travelers. The BN vaccine is the second FDA approved vaccine for chikungunya. In November 2023, the FDA approved the nation's first, a live-attenuated single-dose vaccine from Valneva, which is indicated for adults who are at increased risk of the disease. A few months later, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended it for people who will be traveling to countries or territories reporting outbreaks. The CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) is expected to consider a recommendation for the BN vaccine at its next meeting onFebruary 26.
- GSK announced that the FDA has approved its meningococcal vaccine that protects against five Neisseria meningitidis serogroups for people ages 10 to 25 years old. The vaccine combines the antigenic components of GSK's two current meningococcal vaccines: Bexsero, which targets group B, and Menveo, which targets groups A, C, Y, and W-135. GSK said in a February 15 news release that the approval was supported by results from two phase 3 trials that looked at safety, tolerability, and immune response in more than 4,800 participants. The company said the five-in-one vaccine is positioned to simplify meningococcal vaccine delivery and help protect more US adolescents against the five most common subgroups. It said ACIP is expected to vote on a recommendation for the vaccine on February 26.
Mpox risks rise in DR Congo conflict area, large cities in other nations - At a briefing on mpox developments today in African countries, top health officials from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said that an ongoing crisis in South Kivu Province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), one of the main hot spots, has forced at least 400 mpox patients to flee treatment centers. Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, Africa CDC's director-general, said the development increases the risk of spread within and beyond the province, including to neighboring countries. He added that four healthcare facilities in South Kivu have been destroyed and looted, and that the violence has displaced more than 153,000 people. Conflict and insecurity have interrupted mpox reporting in South Kivu province over the past 2 weeks, he added. Mpox outbreaks have affected 22 African countries, and 13 are in the active phase. Cases are trending upward in 6 countries: Sierra Leone, South Sudan, Zambia, the Republic of Congo, Uganda, and the DRC. In the Republic of Congo, nearly 70% cases are among males, and clades 1a and 1b are co-circulating. Kaseya said that, in the most affected countries, hot spots include capital cities, such as Brazzaville, Congo and Lusaka, Zambia. Seven countries have received mpox vaccine shipments, and five are currently vaccinating. So far, more than 200,000 doses have been administered. Kaseya said another promising development is the decentralization of lab capacity. Waiting for clarification on US funding waiver Last week, officials said a pause in aid from the United States is hampering the transport of mpox samples to labs in some of the most affected counties, which officials said today includes Uganda. Kaseya said the US government has issued a waiver for humanitarian funds, but the situations for accessing the support haven't been clearly communicated to African countries. He said transportation of samples and vaccines are part of lifesaving assistance. Also, at an African Union assembly that just concluded, leaders approved an African Epidemic Fund that is designed to streamline resources for preparedness and response in the region. Kaseya called the epidemic fund a "game changer" and said the African Union also made progress on an agenda for local drug and vaccine manufacturing and built support for innovating health financing.
Four countries report new polio cases -- Four countries reported new polio cases this week, according to the latest update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).Afghanistan and Pakistan each recorded wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases. The WPV1 case in Afghanistan was in Badghis province, and it marks the country's first WPV1 case of 2025. The two WPV1 cases reported in Pakistan were in Sindh province, with paralysis onset on December 15, 2024, and January 30. Pakistan has now reported 74 WPV1 cases for 2024 and 2 for 2025. Algeria reported a case of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) from Adrar province, with paralysis onset on December 10, 2024. It's the country's first cVDPV2 case of 2024. Guinea reported a vaccine-derived poliovirus type 3 (cVDVP3) case in Kankan province with paralysis onset on November 21, 2024, bringing its 2024 total to four cVDPV3 cases.GPEI also noted the identification of three cVDPV2-positive environmental samples in Gaza, where a mass polio vaccination program is set to begin this weekend.
WHO: Global cholera cases declined 27% in January --The number of new cholera cases is down worldwide to start the year, despite a new outbreak in Angola, according to the latest update from the World Health Organization (WHO).As of January 26, a total of 34,799 new cholera cases were reported in 19 countries across three WHO regions, marking a 27% decrease from December 2024. The African Region reported the most cases (17,644), followed by the Eastern Mediterranean Region (16,530) and the Southeast Asia Region (625). The 349 cholera deaths reported globally marked a 33% decrease from the previous month. The WHO said the seasonal decline in cholera transmission during the winter months may partly explain the reduction in cases in some regions, though the overall data remain incomplete.While most of the cholera outbreaks reported are continuations from the previous year, the outbreak in Angola is new. According to the latest weekly outbreak bulletin from the WHO African Region, 4,107 cholera cases have been reported in 10 provinces from the beginning of the year through February 16, with 147 deaths. Children aged 5 years and younger account for 15.4% of the cases and 15.0% of the deaths.Cholera cases have been surging globally since 2021, with conflicts, mass displacement, and extreme climate events intensifying outbreaks and severely hampering efforts to contain the highly infectious bacterial disease, which spreads through water and food contaminated with the Vibrio cholerae bacterium. Cholera causes severe diarrhea and dehydration and can be life-threatening if it goes untreated. T he WHO also said oral cholera vaccine production has ramped up because of significant efforts from suppliers and partners, reaching 6.2 million doses in January. But demand continues to outstrip supply, the agency said, "hindering efforts to control cholera outbreaks, respond rapidly to the disease's spread, and implement preventative campaigns."
Tests rule out Ebola, Marburg in DR Congo unexplained illness clusters -- Testing in two unexplained illness clusters in Equateur Province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has ruled out Ebola and Marburg viruses, and further testing and investigations are under way, the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office said in its latest weekly outbreak and health emergencies update.The newest cluster is centered in Bromate Villega in Basankusu Health Zone and was reported to provincial officials on February 9. Initially, 32 cases were reported, including 20 deaths in the community. As of February 15, a total of 419 suspected cases and 45 deaths have been reported. Half of the deaths occurred within 2 days of symptom onset. Symptoms include fever, headache, body ache, neck stiffness, cough, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Specimens from 13 patients were tested at the National Institute of Biomedical Research (INRB) in Kinshasa, all negative for Ebola and Marburg viruses. "Differential diagnosis under investigation include malaria, viral haemorrhagic fever, food or water poisoning, typhoid fever, and meningitis," the WHO said. Both Ebola and Marburg viruses produce hemorrhagic (bleeding-related) fevers. The earlier unexplained outbreak was initially reported on January 21 and is centered in Boloko Village in Bolomba Health District. Three community deaths in children were noted earlier in the month, with reports that they had consumed bat carcasses and experienced hemorrhagic symptoms before they died. Other similar illnesses have been reported in children, with 12 cases—including 8 deaths—in Boloko Village and 2 cases and 1 death in nearby Danda Village. Testing at the provincial and INRB labs were negative for Ebola and Marburg viruses."The exact circumstances of exposure have not yet been established in both outbreaks. Additionally, no epidemiological links have been established between the cases in the two affected health zones," the WHO said.Equateur Province is in the northwestern part of the DRC and has been affected by Ebola outbreaks in the past.
Remaining patients discharged in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak In an encouraging development in Uganda's Ebola Sudan outbreak, all eight patients who were hospitalized for treatment have been released from medical care after testing negative for the virus twice in tests conducted 72 hours apart, the World Health Organization (WHO) regional office for Africa said today. The patients were receiving treatment in the capital city Kampala and in Mbale. Contact monitoring is still under way for 216 people who are at quarantine facilities located throughout the country. Kasonde Mwinga, MD, the WHO's representative in Uganda, said the discharge of patients are an important milestone in efforts to control the virus. "While we welcome this positive step, we remain steadfastly on course, working with our partners to support the government to halt this virus and end the outbreak." The outbreak began in late January and marked Uganda's first since 2022 and the world's ninth involving Ebola Sudan. Five of the earlier outbreaks had been in Uganda, which is known for its skill in battling the virus. So far, the outbreak total stands at nine cases and one death, which involved the index patient, a 32-year-old male nurse who had worked at a referral hospital in Kampala. The case-fatality rate (CFR) stands at 11.1%, which is much lower than the CFR of 41% to 100% seen in earlier outbreaks involving Ebola Sudan. Uganda's latest outbreak triggered a swift response from health partners, including the WHO, which deployed 47 experts, delivered 7 tons of emergency medical supplies, and took several other steps to support the country's response. The outbreak also saw a quick launch of a trial of a candidate Ebola Sudan vaccine, which is from the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, a nonprofit vaccine research organization based in New York City.
H9N2 avian flu sickens 2 adults in China -- China has reported two more human infections involving H9N2 avian flu, and, unlike most earlier patients, the latest are adults, according to a weekly avian flu update from the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection. The developments follow two H9N2 reports from China last week, involving a child and a teen who were from Hunan province. The newest patients include a 72-year-old woman from Guangdong province whose symptoms began on December 26, 2024. The second patient is a 56-year-old woman from the same province who became ill on January 20, marking the second case of the new year. The report didn't say how the patients were exposed, but H9N2 is known to circulate in parts of Asia, including China, and many earlier patients had contact with poultry or poultry environments. Illnesses in children are typically mild, but more severe illnesses and deaths have been reported in the past.
Wyoming reports its first human H5N1 avian flu infection - A woman living in Platte County has contracted Wyoming's first case of H5N1 avian flu and is the fourth American to be hospitalized for the virus, the Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) confirmed late last week.The infected woman is hospitalized in another state, is older, has underlying medical conditions, and was likely exposed to H5N1 through contact with her infected backyard poultry flock. "H5N1 has been known to be infecting wild birds in Wyoming for some time now with the currently circulating virus spreading nationally since 2022," the WDH said in a press release. "Infections among poultry and dairy cattle have also occurred previously in Wyoming." A total of 70 people are now known to have been infected with H5N1 in the United States in the past year, most of whom had contact with sick poultry or cattle. Most cases have been mild, although a patient in Louisiana died. "While this is a significant development as bird flu activity is monitored in Wyoming and across the country, it is not something we believe requires a high level of concern among most Wyoming residents," Alexia Harrist, MD, PhD, state health officer and WDH epidemiologist, said.No human-to-human H5N1 transmission has been documented, and officials have followed up with people exposed to the patient and flock, Harrist said. "Experts continue to track the spread of H5N1 through wild birds, poultry and dairy cattle across the country," she said. " A small number of people have also been infected. Unfortunately, this patient's experience has been much more serious."She advised against eating raw or undercooked meat or eggs, handling sick wild or domestic birds, and consuming raw (unpasteurized) milk or dairy products.
Third avian flu spillover reported in Arizona dairy herd; raw pet food sickens Oregon cats -For the second time in just over a week, national milk testing has identified another spillover of H5N1 avian influenza into dairy cows, with investigators linking detection to a herd in Arizona’s Maricopa County. In other developments, agriculture officials in Oregon and Washington warned pet owners about the risk of raw pet food after tests on sick domestic cats from different households in Multnomah County linked the infections to contaminated food from the same company. Also, against the backdrop of an ongoing surge of outbreaks in commercial poultry, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has conditionally approved an H5N2 avian flu vaccine made by Zoetis for use in poultry. Arizona officials announced on February 14 that the state’s agriculture department along with the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) have identified H5N1 in milk produced by a dairy herd in Maricopa County. Officials said the virus is the D1.1 genotype and that the cattle haven’t shown symptoms so far. The detections come on the heels of a similar detection through milk sampling in Nevada, which led to the detection of the virus in dairy herds in Churchill County. Clinical signs in those cows didn’t develop until after the detections. Shortly after, Nevada reported its first H5N1 infection in a human, a dairy worker who was exposed to the sick cows.D1.1, circulating widely in North American wild birds, has fueled a surge in poultry outbreaks, affecting both commercial and backyard flocks. It is different than the B3.13 genotype implicated in most other dairy cow outbreaks over the past year. APHIS said in a February 14 statement that detection of the D1.1 genotype isn’t surprising, given its prevalence. It added that sequencing suggests that it represents a separate introduction to dairy cattle, now the third of its kind in dairy cattle. “This finding may indicate an increased risk of HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] introduction into dairies through wild bird exposure,” APHIS said, urging dairy farmers to tighten biosecurity and to report cattle illnesses and unusual sick or dead wildlife to state veterinarians. In its latest update on detections in dairy cattle, APHIS today reported 5 more confirmations, which includes the Arizona herd, with the others from California. The new confirmations push the national total to 972, including 747 from California. Echoing results from earlier California investigations into H5N1 infections in domestic cats, an investigation by agriculture departments in Oregon and Washington has renewed warnings about feeding pets raw food after their investigation into two cat illnesses in Oregon found that the pets were exposed to the same raw pet food brand. The cats were from different households in Multnomah County. The owners, after consulting with veterinarians, humanely euthanized the cats due to illness severity. Oregon officials found the cats both ate the same type of raw food before they got sick. Oregon officials obtained samples from the cats and unopened food containers, and Washington officials tested samples from unopened containers. State and federal testing confirmed H5N1 in cat and food samples. The findings prompted a consumer alert from the Washington State Department of Agriculture about the risk of avian flu in certain lots of pet food made by Wild Coast Raw, based in Olympia, Washington. The alert applies to two lots of feline formula boneless free-range chicken formula sold in 24-ounce plastic containers. Last year, legislators from South Dakota urged US officials to launch discussions about updating trade agreements that would allow potential use of poultry vaccines. Though some countries, including China, routinely vaccinate poultry, others have held back due to concerns that vaccine use could mask ongoing circulation. Thus, many countries bar the import of poultry where vaccines are used in commercial settings. Amid an ongoing surge in poultry outbreaks, APHIS today confirmed more H5N1 detections in poultry in four states, including Indiana, which has two more large outbreaks at layer farms and events at a turkey farm and a backyard facility. The virus was confirmed at turkey farms in Iowa and Ohio, as well as at a commercial farm in California. The outbreaks have led to the loss of more than 162 million birds across all 50 states and Puerto Rico since early 2022, and resulted in ongoing egg shortages and high egg prices.
Michigan cats may have caught H5N1 from dairy workers; Ohio counties declare avian flu emergency - An investigation into two severe H5N1 illnesses in exclusively indoor cats found that they may have been exposed by symptomatic dairy workers, scientists from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and their partners in Michigan reported today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.The findings add evidence for another route of avian flu infections in cats. Cats are known to contract the virus from drinking unpasteurized milk from sick cows, and outdoor cats can also be exposed by contact with sick or dead wildlife. Investigations have also tied recent cat illnesses to contaminated raw pet food.The cats from two different households had respiratory and neurologic symptoms in May 2024 and were found to have the B3.13 genotype that was circulating in cattle. Both dairy workers were employed in a county that had outbreaks of H5N1 in dairy cattle but had no known direct exposure to H5N1-affected farms.The cats' owners and household members were offered testing for H5 avian flu. The owner of the first cat worked on a dairy farm and declined testing, and three household members tested negative for the virus. The farm worker, who worked on the premises but had no direct contact with animals, had experienced vomiting and diarrhea before the cat's symptoms began.The owner of the second cat lived alone and worked on multiple dairy farms transporting unpasteurized milk, and despite being splashed in the eyes with milk, declined testing. The driver reported experiencing eye irritation 2 days before the cat's symptoms began. Both dairy workers were employed in a county that had outbreaks of H5N1 in dairy cattle.Based on the investigation findings, the authors recommend that veterinarians in states affected by H5N1 in livestock consider obtaining household occupational information, test for influenza A, and wear personal protective equipment when evaluating pet cats that are sick with respiratory or neurologic illness. They also urged veterinarians to report suspected cases to public and animal health officials.County commissioners in Ohio's Mercer and Darke counties teamed up this week to pass similar resolutions declaring a state of emergency due to avian flu outbreaks in poultry and to request state and federal support.Over the past several weeks, Ohio has been nation's worst affected area, especially Mercer and Darke counties, located on the state's western border with Indiana. Ohio is the nation's second-largest egg producer, supplying 10 billion eggs each year, according to the Ohio Poultry Association. Ohio farms also produce more than 554 million pounds of chicken, and the state ranks ninth in turkey production.The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) todayconfirmed three more highly pathogenic avian flu detections in Ohio, including at a layer farm in Darke County and a turkey farm in Mercer County. Officials also reported a detection in a backyard flock in Stark County in the northeast. New detections in other states include backyard flocks in Nevada and Arizona. In the current season, the pace of outbreak in Ohio picked up in December, and in the past 30 days alone, the virus has struck 54 commercial flocks and led to the loss of more than 9 million birds.Rick Muhlenkamp, a Mercer County Commissioner, told the Daily Standard, a newspaper based in Celina, Ohio, that officials from the two counties conferred on the resolution wording to amplify producer concerns about economic impact, employment, and food supply chains and to form a unified front. The two counties are requesting more resources to help contain the outbreaks, such as greater flexibility with testing, emergency financial support for poultry producers, biosecurity supplies, and more veterinary expertise. Muhlenkamp told the Daily Standard that the goal is to make their case to Ohio's agriculture department and governor, who can secure support from the USDA. Elsewhere, the Nevada Department of Agriculture (NDA) yesterday announced that the state has temporarily suspended a law that limits the sale of retail eggs to cage-free eggs. The law had been in effect since 2021. The temporary order also allows the sale of "grade B" eggs that meet all food safety requirements but may have different colors, shapes, or sizes. Effective today, Nevada's retailers can source eggs from any producer that meets food safety guidelines, regardless of whether they were produced in a cage-free production system.In a statement, NDA State Quarantine Officer J.J. Goicoechea, DVM, said, eggs are the most cost-effective protein source for food-insecure groups and that scarce supplies leave them without essential food. "This egg shortage didn't happen overnight, and we cannot resolve it overnight," he said, estimating that it will take about 30 days to secure new contracts and see increased supply.In New York, the state's agriculture department yesterday announced a new testing requirement for all poultry entering New York's live-bird markets. The New York State Department of Agriculture and Markets said the step is an extra measure that follows the temporary closure on February 7 of the state's 82 live-bird markets. All of the markets reopened following cleaning, sanitation, and inspection. Outbreaks were reported earlier at live markets in Bronx, Queens, and Kings counties.
Can avian flu spread via the wind? Can't be ruled out, experts say -- A non–peer-reviewed study published on the preprint server bioRxiv suggests that highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus shed in poultry droppings can be transmitted by the wind, a possibility that other experts say can't be ruled out but is also very difficult to prove.The report centers on a February 2024 outbreak of H5N1 avian flu among unrelated commercial poultry farms located about 8 kilometers (5 miles) apart in the Czech Republic during the 2023-24 HPAI season.Since the latest H5N1 epidemic began in February 2022, the virus has led to the deaths of more than 150 million US birds.The cluster was identified after avian flu killed 5,000 fattening ducks within 2 days at a basic-biosecurity 50,000-bird farm near a lake frequented by wild ducks, the probable cause of the outbreak; the rest of the poultry were culled. A week later, deadly outbreaks with a slower disease course occurred at two high-biosecurity chicken farms, where dead birds were found mainly near the barns' air-intake vents; the entire population was culled. All farms had their own wells.Experts hypothesize that the slower disease course in the chicken barns may be due to lower H5N1 transmissibility in chickens, waning concentrations of the virus over distance from the duck farm, or housing conditions.The researchers, from the State Veterinary Institute Prague, used genetic, epizootiologic, meteorologic, and geographic data to reconstruct events suggesting that wind was the mechanism of H5N1 transmission between poultry on at least two of the farms. Three H5N1 strains collected from birds at all three farms were genetically identical, no large waterways were near the chicken farms, and the duck farm didn't share staff or contractors with the chicken farms.What's more, meteorologic data revealed a breeze in the direction of the chicken farms, cloudy conditions that could have kept the sun's ultraviolet light from killing the virus, and virus-supporting cool air. The team didn't conduct air sampling. "Our results suggest that the contaminated plume emitted from the infected fattening duck farm was the critical medium of HPAI transmission, rather than the dust generated during depopulation," the study authors wrote. "They also strongly implicate the role of confined mechanically-ventilated buildings with high population densities in facilitating windborne transmission and propagating virus concentrations below the minimum infectious dose at the recipient sites."
Canada announces avian flu vaccine buy as USDA confirms first H5N1 detections in rats The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) today announced that it has secured 500,000 initial doses of GSK's human vaccine against avian influenza to protect people most at risk.In other avian flu developments, tests at the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have confirmed the H5N1 strain in rats for the first time, as the agency acknowledged that it was reversing recent layoffs of employees working on the avian flu response.In a statement, PHAC said its purchase leverages an existing agreement with GSK. "This vaccine will be used as part of Canada's contingency planning to protect people who may be at increased risk of being exposed to the virus through animals infected with avian influenza," it said. The Arepanrix H5N1 A/American wigeon clade 2.3.4.4b vaccine uses established technology for seasonal and pandemic flu vaccines. Health Canada on February 18 completed its review of GSK's regulatory submission and authorized the change in vaccine strain.The risk to the general public remains low, PHAC said, adding that 60% of the doses will be equitably distributed to provinces and territories using a risk-based approach, and 40% will be kept in Canada's national stockpile.Also today, Canada's National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) released preliminary guidanceon the use of human vaccines against avian flu in nonpandemic settings. Though the NACI doesn't recommend broad H5N1 vaccine deployment, it outlined situations in which provinces and territories might proactively use it based on higher risk, including for lab workers and people with ongoing contact with infected animals or contaminated environments.The United States and the European Union have stockpiled avian flu vaccine for people, and the United Kingdom recently ordered 5 million doses of H5 vaccine from CSL Seqirus. Finland is already vaccinating people at high risk, including workers at fur farms.Canada has reported several H5N1 detections in poultry and wild birds, especially in British Columbia, where in November a severe infection was reported in a teen whose exposure to the virus is still unknown. The USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today added eight more H5N1 avian flu confirmations to its list of detections in mammals, including rats for the first time. Officials have previously confirmed the virus in mice found on affected farms.Of the eight detections, four involved black rats that were sampled in late January in Riverside County, California, where two recent poultry outbreaks were reported, one of them involving layer pullets.The other infected mammals include a harbor seal in Massachusetts, a fox in North Dakota, a bobcat in Washington state, and a domestic cat in Oregon that likely relates to a recent report of two pets from Multnomah County that were sickened after eating raw pet food contaminated with the virus.APHIS hasn't posted any new poultry or dairy cattle confirmations since February 14, but today it did add three more H5N1 confirmations in wild birds, including an agency-harvested raven in California's Riverside County, an agency-harvested duck in New Mexico (Socorro County), and a hunter-harvested duck in Alabama (Marshall County).Following terminations over the weekend of USDA employees who are working on the avian flu response, the agency is working quickly to restore the positions, NBC News reported yesterday, citing a statement from a USDA spokesperson.The spokesperson added that USDA Food Safety and Inspection Services (FSIS) frontline positions are considered public safety positions and that the agency is continuing to hire the workforce needed to protect the nation's food supply according to its statutory mission. The official added that several positions were already exempted from cuts and that the USDA continues to prioritize the response to highly pathogenic avian flu.
Amid layoffs at HHS, experts warn about impact on public health - The mass firings at the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) that began over the weekend continue, though it's not yet clear how many employees have been dismissed as part of the Trump administration's efforts to cut the federal workforce, or how many more will be losing their jobs in the coming days.The dismissals, which began late last week and targeted probationary employees, have hit large swaths of health professionals across the 13 divisions that operate under HHS. The New York Times reports that the toll includes 1,200 employees dismissed from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), while National Public Radio reports that 750 employees at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) received termination letters over the weekends. Probationary employees include recent hires or longer-serving staff who recently began new positions. The cuts also hit probationary employees at Food and Drug Administration (FDA) who review food ingredients, medical devices, and other products, according to the Associated Press, though the number of employees dismissed was unclear. Other affected divisions include the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), Politico reports. The AP and other outlets reported last week that as many as 5,200 probationary employees across HHS could be dismissed, based on audio from a meeting of NIH officials. CDC leadership had told staff that an estimated 1,300 employees—roughly 10% of the agency's workforce—would be losing their jobs.Among the programs that have been affected by the cuts, according to reporting by Stat, is the CDC's Public Health Associate's Program, a 2-year paid training program that assigns trainees to state, tribal, local, and territorial public health agencies to gain hands-on experience. NBC News reports roughly two dozen employees from CDC's Laboratory Leadership Service were dismissed, and the Washington Post reports that the cuts included scientists working on outbreak investigations involving skunk rabies, dengue fever, and Oropouche virus. Layoffs do not appear to have occurred yet at another program that was reportedly on the chopping block, the CDC's Epidemic Intelligence Service, whose staff members are known as "disease detectives." In addition, layoffs of nearly 1,000 employees from the Indian Health Service were quickly rescinded, according to Native News Online.In response to a query about the cuts from CIDRAP News, an HHS spokesman did not provide an estimate of how many employees have been dismissed but said the agency was "following the Administration's guidance and taking action to support the President's broader efforts to restructure and streamline the federal government." "This is to ensure that HHS better serves the American people at the highest and most efficient standard," HHS communications director Andrew Nixon said in an email. Reaction to the dismissals, and what they could mean for public health now and in the future, has been swift.Among those critical of the cuts is the American Public Health Association (APHA), which advocates for public health policies and programs at the federal and state levels. Susan Polan, PhD, APHA's associate executive director for public affairs and advocacy, said the impact on public health is "potentially dramatic," especially at when the nation is experiencing an H5N1 avian flu outbreak in poultry and dairy cattle, rising measles cases in Texas, and a tuberculosis outbreak in Kansas"We are losing people on the front lines trying to keep people healthy," Polan told CIDRAP News. "At the same time, we're losing the years of experience that exist in these agencies."Polan added that the cuts will have a ripple effect on public health response across the country. "We need these federal agencies that work with states and with communities to understand where disease is, how to prevent it, and how to react," she said. "Without these people who are working on the ground all around the country, the impact is going to be felt in communities all around the country."Polan said she's also concerned that the dismissals are going to further erode interest in the public health profession, which has already seen an exodus of professionals in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic amid an overwhelming workload and public animosity over the pandemic response. That will also be felt beyond the beltway, she noted.
Agriculture Department tries to rehire fired workers tied to bird flu response — The Agriculture Department is scrambling to rehire several workers who were involved in the government’s response to the ongoing bird flu outbreak that has devastated egg and poultry farms over the past three years. The workers were among the thousands of federal employees eliminated on the recommendations of billionaire Elon Musk ‘s Department of Government Efficiency, which is working to carry out Trump’s promise to streamline and reshape the federal government. Republican Rep. Don Bacon said the administration should be more careful in how it carries out the cuts. “While President Trump is fulfilling his promise to shed light on waste, fraud, and abuse in government, DOGE needs to measure twice and cut once. Downsizing decisions must be narrowly tailored to preserve critical missions,” said Bacon, who represents a swing district in Nebraska. The bird flu outbreak has prompted the slaughter of roughly 160 million birds to help control the virus since the outbreak began in 2022. Most of the birds killed were egg-laying chickens, so that has driven egg prices up to a record high of $4.95 per dozen on average. The federal government has spent nearly $2 billion on the response, including nearly $1.2 billion in payments to farmers to compensate them for their lost birds. A USDA spokesperson said the department “continues to prioritize the response to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)” and several key jobs like veterinarians, animal health technicians and other emergency response personnel involved in the effort were protected from the cuts. But some employees of the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service were eliminated. Up Next - FIRED Federal Workers PROTEST MUSK and TRUMP outside SPACEX and HHS headquarters" “Although several APHIS positions supporting HPAI were notified of their terminations over the weekend, we are working to swiftly rectify the situation and rescind those letters,” the department spokesperson said. Sign up for the Morning Report The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox. Email address By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates Politico and NBC News reported that the jobs that were eliminated were part of an office that helps oversee the national network of labs USDA relies on to confirm cases of bird flu and other animal diseases. It wasn’t immediately clear how many workers the department might be trying to rehire and whether any of them worked at the main USDA lab in Ames, Iowa. “At a time when producers are already grappling with the bird flu, the public is facing high prices, and all Americans are on edge about what broader spread of this virus could mean, the last thing the administration should have done was to eliminate these positions,” Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar said. “USDA must rehire these crucial personnel immediately.” Trump administration officials said this week that the USDA might change its approach to the bird flu outbreak, so that maybe entire flocks wouldn’t have to be slaughtered when the disease is found, but they have yet to offer many details of their plan.
H5N5 avian flu detected in Canadian poultry flock, UK seals - Highly pathogenic H5N5 avian flu has been detected in a backyard poultry flock in Newfoundland and Labrador, according to information submitted by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), as well as in UK seals. The poultry outbreak at Gander Bay began on January 15 and killed all 34 birds at the location. Tests at the CFIA National Centre for Foreign Animal Disease confirmed H5N5 and found that the virus is similar to European-like viruses that came to Canada by the Atlantic flyway. The viruses have fully European H5N5 genome segments.Canada has previously reported H5N5 in wild birds and mammals, including wild raccoons found dead on Prince Edward Island in May 2023. The pace of H5N5 detections in Europe has picked up, including a recent detection in a cat in Iceland. In other H5N5 developments, the UK Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs today confirmedthe detection of H5N5 in two grey seals found near Norfolk. The United Kingdom is among six countries that have reported H5N5 in birds and mammals since the first of the year, which, alongside Canada and Iceland, also includes Norway, Greenland, and Germany, according to Avian Flu Diary, an infectious disease news blog. WOAH has warned of unprecedented genetic variability in avian flu subtypes in wild birds and poultry across the world, creating epidemiologic challenges.
'Exceptionally rare' mutation on H5N1 virus in Canada tied to antiviral drug resistance -- In a research letter published this week in Emerging Microbes & Infections, researchers at the Canada Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) describe their discovery of a mutated H5N1 avian flu strain resistant to the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu) on eight chicken farms in British Columbia in October 2024.When investigating a widespread and ongoing H5N1 outbreak at 45 poultry farms, the CFIA National Centre for Foreign Animal Disease team sequenced the virus, identifying it as a clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N1) strain. The virus had a neuraminidase surface protein derived from a low-pathogenic flu virus from a North American lineage. "Isolates from 8 farms reveal a mutation in the neuraminidase protein (H275Y) that is exceptionally rare among clade 2.3.4.4b viruses (present in 0.045% of publicly available clade 2.3.4.4b isolates)," the researchers wrote. "NA-H275Y is a well-known marker of resistance to the neuraminidase inhibitor oseltamivir."The virus likely emerged in Canada in September 2024, the authors said. The US Department of Agriculture later updated its North American A(H5N1) genotyping tool GenoFlu to designate the virus as genotype D1.1. "Despite evidence to suggest this substitution reduces viral fitness, viruses harboring this substitution spread rapidly across 8 farms in the 15 days following its initial detection," the researchers wrote. "As oseltamivir is the most widely used therapeutic and prophylactic against IAV [influenza A virus], the continued circulation of viruses harboring NA-H275Y may necessitate a re-evaluation of influenza treatment strategies in Canada."It's unclear whether the mutated virus is still circulating.Yesterday, the US Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service confirmed four more highly pathogenic avian flu detections, including a commercial turkey farm in Sac County, Iowa, affecting nearly 30,000 birds and three backyard flocks in Maine and Pennsylvania totaling nearly 500 birds.In the last 30 days, 101 commercial and 55 backyard flocks have been infected, at a loss of 21.7 million birds.
Antarctic expedition confirms the spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in the Weddell Sea - The CSIC-UNESPA scientific expedition has been underway since last January with the aim of monitoring the presence of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI H5N1) in Antarctica. The first results of the campaign have confirmed the presence of the virus in all species detected on six islands in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. This positive result was obtained in 42 animals, including 28 carcasses of species such as crabeater seals, skuas, gulls, snowy sheathbill, Adélie penguins, and Gentoo penguins, as well as 14 live individuals of skuas and Adélie and Gentoo penguins. "The viral load in the dead animals was very high, indicating a risk of exposure to the virus in proximity to the carcasses," The finding, according to the researcher, will allow national polar programs to be prepared and to consider measures to prevent the transmission of the infection through human means, especially the spread to people, as many of the locations where the virus was detected are frequently visited by tourist and research vessels. The presence of the HPAI (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) virus was confirmed through multiple laboratory tests, including specific PCRs for influenza virus and the H5 subtype, followed by sequencing of the protease cleavage region, which defines the presence of the HPAI virus with 100% certainty. "We performed PCR tests on swab samples to identify the virus M and H5 genes. Subsequently, the presence of the virus was confirmed by sequencing using the Oxford Nanopore technology," Additionally, the researchers identified the HPAI virus in penguin colonies through air sampling. "We collected air samples with a pump connected to a nanofiber filter developed by CSIC, which captures the virus. PCR tests on the filter confirmed the detection of the pathogen. These results indicate that air sampling is a valid method for detecting the virus without the need to handle animals," highlights the CBMSO researcher. Of particular significance is the presence of highly pathogenic avian influenza in apparently healthy penguin colonies. Its detection in live Adélie and Gentoo penguins suggests that the infection may be spreading in colonies without causing significant mortality. Alcamí cautions, "We do not know if the penguins were exposed to the virus last year and have protective immunity or if they are more resistant than expected." Geographically, the most notable case is Tay Head (Joinville Island), where the virus prevalence is particularly high. In this area, the infection has severely affected crabeater seals. After sampling seven areas of the Weddell Sea (including Devil, Beak, Beagle, and Heroína islands), the CSIC-UNESPA Antarctic Expedition will move south of the Antarctic Peninsula to study new areas and gain a better understanding of the virus's spread. The scientific expedition led by CSIC is analyzing the presence of the pathogen over six weeks in the Antarctic Peninsula, the South Shetland Islands, and the Weddell Sea. This work is being carried out aboard the Australis sailboat, a vessel with extensive experience navigating Antarctica. It allows access to difficult-to-reach locations and is equipped with the most modern satellite navigation and communication systems. The team is made up of three crew members and eight scientists from different nationalities and disciplines, including veterinarians specializing in wildlife, virologists, and molecular biologists. A real-time PCR molecular diagnostic and virus sequencing laboratory has been installed on the sailboat, enabling the team to diagnose cases quickly. Additionally, all samples collected during the expedition are obtained following strict safety protocols. The highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of the avian influenza virus initially evolved in domestic poultry but has recently adapted to spread among wildlife. Since 2020, its spread has caused significant mortality among wild birds and mammals worldwide, and in 2022, its arrival in South America was confirmed.
CWD hits 2nd Wyoming elk feeding ground in previously unaffected hunt area =The Wyoming Game and Fish Department (WGFD) has confirmed the first cases of chronic wasting disease(CWD) in Elk Hunt Area 87, which also mark the first detections in the Upper Green River elk herd and the second time the disease been found on a state elk feeding ground.The two adult female elk were found dead in January and early February, respectively, at the Dell Creek feeding ground. Elk Hunt Area 87, located in the Pinedale region in the western part of the state, abuts CWD-positive elk hunt areas 84 and 92.The first elk to test positive on a Wyoming feeding ground was identified in late December. That case was reported on the Scab Creek feeding ground in Sublette County, which is also in the Pinedale region and abuts Elk Hunt Area 92. "It is unfortunate and concerning to find CWD on an elk feedground," WGFD Wildlife Division Deputy Chief Justin Binfet said late last week in a news release. "However, it was not unexpected given this disease continues to spread throughout the West."Binfet added that the WGFD is developing the first Feedground Management Action Plans (FMAPs) for the Pinedale and Jackson herds to guide wildlife managers as they work to mitigate CWD transmission and reduce elk reliance on these areas. "After completing the initial FMAP process for the Pinedale Herd, the Region will determine which herd to prioritize next," the news release said. CWD, a fatal neurodegenerative disease caused by misfolded proteins called prions, can spread among cervids such as deer, elk, and moose and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect people, but experts fear it could cross the species barrier.
Sea turtles return to the Atlantic Ocean off Florida after being stunned by the cold -Eight green sea turtles were released back into the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, nearly a month after an arctic blast brought a rare snowfall to northern Florida and left the aquatic reptiles suffering from a condition known as cold stunning. A total of 17 sea turtles found stranded last month along Florida's northeastern Atlantic Coast were brought to the Loggerhead Marinelife Center in Juno Beach, north of West Palm Beach, for rehabilitation. "There are so many turtles that were affected by that cold stunning event that happened several weeks ago," lead veterinarian Dr. Heather Barron said. "The cold really suppresses their immune system because they are reptiles, and their body temperature is taken from the surrounding temperature of the water." It snowed as far south as northern Florida, which is extremely rare, and the frigid temperatures reached South Florida. More than a dozen additional turtles have been brought to Loggerhead Marinelife Center since the initial group, and other turtle facilities around the state have reached capacity. Veterinarians have been treating the turtles with antibiotics, fluids and intravenous nutrition. They all suffered from cold stunning, which causes sea turtles to lose mobility and become lethargic. Most of the turtles are expected to be released back into the ocean in a few weeks.
Invasive Crabs Have Taken Over New England. One Solution? Eat Them. - For several years while teaching at the University of Vermont, Joe Roman, a conservation biologist, challenged students to an unusual exercise. Design an animal ideal for the role of marine invader, he’d say, a creature with the natural traits to colonize a territory not its own and, in the relentlessly competitive scrum of the wild, establish itself sturdily for the long term. Roman has spent decades studying how species travel the globe, multiply beyond pioneering toeholds to something like ubiquity and change ecosystems. His classroom exercise invariably landed as a living example on one little-known but astonishingly widespread member of the animal kingdom: the European green crab. Small, fertile, rugged and fueled by an expansive appetite, the species, he says, is “an exemplary invader, a perfect invader.”European green crabs originally hail from the northeastern Atlantic Ocean and the southwestern Baltic Sea. Roman ticked off traits that helped them conquer much of the world. As omnivores, scavengers and cannibals, they sustain themselves on almost any organic food. They have a high fecundity, with females releasing as many as 185,000 eggs a year. They survive in water temperatures from freezing to 86 degrees Fahrenheit and tolerate sweetwater zones where salt meets fresh. Moreover, adult European green crabs can live 10 days or more out of water. Taken together, these characteristics explain why they were first documented along the United States coast in 1817 and continue their tour of the temperate world. My curiosity about European green crabs began after witnessing their near indestructibility beside my own home. Our family fishes commercially in New England, where we grow or catch a substantial portion of our food. About 15 years ago, my children and I began capturing bushels of European green crabs for use as fertilizer. The process was simple. We harvested crabs in baited wire-mesh traps in an estuary in southern Rhode Island. Every so often we’d transfer bushels into coolers of tap water, where we expected they would die, as lobsters quickly do when immersed in fresh water. We’d then dump their limp carcasses into compost piles and cover them under a foot of decomposing leaves, vegetable scraps and manure.One day not long after one of these deposits, a neighbor arrived at our yard’s edge. He seemed bemused, and he asked if I knew anything about the crabs picking their way across his property. He had discovered the exploded chitin exoskeleton of an itinerant crustacean after hearing a thunk under his lawn mower. Yes, I admitted, I did. Upon inspecting the compost, we found that an untold number of crabs we thought dead had unearthed themselves and walked off. Over the next week we found more — hiding in shade, crouched under purple dead-nettle, pressed against the base of a shed. A murder of crows feasted on them. Crabs kept turning up.
Experiments show wild fish can recognize individual divers - For years, scientific divers at a research station in the Mediterranean Sea had a problem: at some point in every field season, local fish would follow them and steal food intended as experimental rewards. Intriguingly, these wild fish appeared to recognize the specific diver who had previously carried food, choosing to follow only them while ignoring other divers.To find out if that was true, a team from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior (MPI-AB) in Germany conducted a series of experiments while wearing a range of diving gear, finding that fish in the wild can discriminate among humans based on external visual cues.The experiments were designed to answer a question never before asked of wild fish: are they capable of telling people apart? Overall, little scientific evidence exists to show that fish can recognize humans at all. One captive-bred species, archerfish, was able to recognize computer-generated images of human faces in laboratory experiments."But nobody has ever asked whether wild fish have the capacity, or indeed motivation, to recognize us when we enter their underwater world," says Maëlan Tomasek, a doctoral student at MPI-AB and the University of Clermont Auvergne, France. Now, a team from MPI-AB have asked, and the fish have responded. Wild fish can recognize individual humans. And, more than that, they follow specific divers they know will reward them. This finding, published in Biology Letters, lends credence to the possibility that fish can have differentiated relationships with specific humans.
Rangers to euthanise 90 dolphins stranded on remote Australian beach-- Wildlife rangers will Wednesday begin shooting 90 dolphins stranded on a remote Australian beach, saying the stressed creatures would be euthanised after attempts to refloat them failed. A pod of 157 dolphins from a poorly understood deep-sea species was found stranded Tuesday evening on an isolated beach in Australia's southern island of Tasmania. Tasmania's environment department said only 90 survived by Wednesday afternoon, growing increasingly "stressed" the longer they were exposed to beaming sun and lashing winds. "Following expert veterinary assessment we have made the decision to euthanise the animals," incident controller Shelley Graham told reporters. "That's likely to be the course of action for all 90." They appeared to be members of a large dolphin species known as false killer whales, officials said, named for the orca-like shape of their skull. Efforts to refloat the dolphins—which can weigh upwards of one tonne—had fallen short and were unlikely to succeed, said biologist Kris Carlyon. "This is possibly the trickiest location I've seen in 16 years of doing this in Tasmania. It is extremely remote, extremely difficult to get access. "We've given it a good crack this morning, but we are running out of options for a successful refloat." Dozens of sleek and dark-skinned dolphins were pictured Tuesday wallowing in wet sand as a shallow tide lapped against them. "Euthanasia of an animal this size, it's not a simple exercise," said Carlyon. It is reasonably common for pods of false killer whales to strand themselves on Australia's beaches. But officials said it was the first time in 50 years they had beached in that part of Tasmania. "Often we don't get to the bottom of the ultimate cause," said Carlyon. "They have really strong social bonds. One disoriented individual can drag the rest of them ashore."
Life-threatening flash floods hit Rives, Tennessee after levee collapse - YouTube video - A powerful winter storm swept through the Southeast over the weekend, causing a levee collapse on the Obion River and triggering life-threatening flash floods in Rives, Tennessee, on Sunday, February 16, 2025. The flooding triggered a Flash Flood Emergency, which lasted until 07:30 local time (LT) on February 16. A state of emergency was declared for the region by the Mayor of Obion County, Steve Carr. The area was put under a mandatory evacuation order as waters rose, while power was shut down to ensure the safety of the residents. “There will be mandatory evacuations in effect for the residents in Rives due to the rising water, no electricity, and freezing temperature creating a life-threatening situation,” Carr said. “This is a life-threatening situation, seek higher ground now!” said the National Weather Service (NWS). At least 51 people were at risk due to the flooding, according to the NWS. Mayor Carr added law enforcement will be actively securing the affected areas to protect residents and property. “Please be advised that there will be no trespassing in these zones. Private drones are not allowed as helicopters and public safety drones are in use at this time. We urge everyone to respect this directive, as it is vital for the safety of both our first responders and the community at large.” Shelters have been set up at Ridgemont Elementary School and the Woodland Mills Civic Center. Food, shelter, and clothing are available for displaced residents at these locations. A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for the area lasting until 19:00 LT on Monday. A Flood Warning will remain in effect until 18:00 LT on Tuesday, February 18, and a Winter Storm Warning will take effect at noon (LT) on Tuesday and last until noon (LT) on Wednesday, February 19.
Severe winter storm leaves 10 dead, triggers widespread flooding across Kentucky and southeastern U.S. - At least 10 people have died and over 700 00 customers across multiple states were left without power after a severe winter storm swept through the southeastern United States from February 15 to 17, 2025, bringing strong winds, heavy rainfall, and widespread flooding. According to Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, nine fatalities were reported in Kentucky alone, with emergency responders conducting over 1 000 rescues across the state. One fatality was reported in Atlanta, Georgia, after a tree fell on a house, killing a man while he was lying in his bed, according to fire crews who arrived at the scene at around 05:00 local time (LT) on Sunday, February 16. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Louisville, the region received 76 – 178 mm (3 – 7 inches) of rainfall, leading to widespread flooding. The Louisville Metro Police Department (LMPD) assisted fire departments with water rescues throughout the city during the storm. First responders completed 30 water rescues across the region, with LMPD warning residents not to drive through flooded areas.
Kentucky braces for more flooding amid historic weather - Wild weather has struck the South once again, with many Kentuckians still in harm’s way. More than 10 people have been killed in the Bluegrass State after catastrophic storms led to unprecedented flooding and high waters submerged entire communities.. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) has said it is one of the most serious weather events his state has ever seen. More than a thousand people have been rescued so far, but the threat of flooding still isn’t over yet. All 120 counties in Kentucky are under a flood warning, and crews are actively working to get people out of the water. Earlier today, Beshear announced an additional two fatalities, bringing the total to 11 people killed by these floods. Officials warn several rivers in Kentucky have yet to crest, meaning more flooding and possibly more fatalities are likely. “All of Kentucky still has standing water in different areas. Over 300 roads [are] still impacted and closed, so everyone be careful,” Beshear said in a press conference Monday. “The amount of time it’s going to take for the water to go down in some places might be most of this week,” he added. Another round of winter weather is expected to hit the state Tuesday through Wednesday. It is expected to see anywhere from 2 to 6 inches of snow, which may complicate search and rescue efforts. Several states across the South face severe weather of their own. West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrisey (R) declared a state of emergency with flooding in 13 counties, several people are still missing, and river levels are expected to rise even higher as water flows to lower elevations, which could result in new areas being flooded. The Federal Emergency Management Agency and other federal resources were also being deployed in West Virginia to help with efforts. In Tennessee, catastrophic rainfall caused a levee to break, flooding the town of Reeves in the western part of the state, where 200 people were rescued from the water. Freezing temperatures are sweeping the South this week, which will pose a major threat to the people there as crews scramble to restore power in the hardest-hit areas.
At least 12 dead from Kentucky flood disaster - Historic flooding hit Kentucky over the weekend as severe storms brought heavy rainfall and strong winds since Friday. At least 12 people have lost their lives in the disaster, including a mother and her 7-year-old child. Numerous cities and towns across the state were impacted by the deluge which caused flash floods, mudslides and significant damage. Flooding has been reported in more than 120 Kentucky counties while communities in Hart, Pike and Washington counties were submerged in water with thousands of people evacuating their homes. More than 1,000 rescue operations were conducted by swift water boat teams and Kentucky National Guard soldiers. Ohio Task Force 1, an urban search and rescue team operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), has also been activated for extended rescue operations spanning Kentucky and surrounding states. Power was cut to approximately 15,000 households and more than 17,000 homes lacked access to clean water. Officials report water is still rising in some areas and at least 300 roads across Kentucky are experiencing severe flooding or are completely closed. Residents have been warned not to drive as many of the deaths have been caused by auto-related accidents. The National Weather Service (NWS) said the areas with at least moderate flooding included the Kentucky River, Rolling Fork River, Green River and Rough River. At 6 p.m. on Monday, WLWT5 TV reported: Downtown Hazard, Kentucky, is seeing some of the worst flooding in decades as waters got nearly six feet deep in businesses along Main Street. “It was a mess. Everything was floated. The stuff from the kitchen cabinets was out here in the lobby when you walked in,” said attorney Kevin Johnson. Everything that was inside his law offices was carried outside, right down to the flooring. Now, covered in mud and piled up to be taken to the dump. The flood waters made it from his doorstep to nearly six feet deep inside within the span of about an hour. “It’s a nightmare. We have to start all over, and I’ll have to try to recreate all my clients’ files. Probably, roughly 100 or more clients. This is starting over,” Johnson said. WSAZ-TV reported that a woman and her 7-year-old child died on Saturday night after their vehicle was swept away by flash flooding in Hart County. County Coroner Tony Roberts said rescue teams responded near Bacon Creek in an effort to rescue the mother and child. “As she was going to pick her husband up at some family members’ so they could go home, she got turned around, took a wrong turn and went the wrong way and ended up on the bridge,” Roberts said. While they were able to recover the child’s body from the vehicle, rising waters and lack of daylight forced the crews to halt their rescue efforts. “We could not get to the mom because the water was coming up so fast,” Roberts said. EMTs on scene attempted to revive the child but were unsuccessful.The US Geological Survey publishes a WaterWatch Streamflow Map and, as of this writing, the map showed 116 floods in the region of which 5 were major, 23 moderate and 88 minor. Another 67 areas were near-flood stage.
NOAA satellites capture devastating flooding in lower Mississippi Valley NOAA satellites have captured detailed images of swollen rivers after the recent storm that brought heavy rains and severe floods in the lower Mississippi Valley. The before-and-after satellite images of the Lower Mississippi River Valley show the impact of heavy rainfall and flooding that struck the region in mid-February 2025. Video credit: NOAA The floods resulted from a storm that brought heavy rainfall across the southeastern United States, leading to at least 10 fatalities over the weekend. The flooding caused significant damage in Kentucky and Tennessee, impacting the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi River valleys. The heavy rain fell on already saturated ground, resulting in historic river flooding, levee failures, and evacuations. The first image, taken on January 27, shows the condition of local rivers and tributaries before the floods. The second image, captured on February 17, reveals swollen waterways and low-lying areas inundated with floodwaters. The images were taken by the NOAA JPSS program’s VIIRS instrument, which scans the entire Earth twice daily at a 750 m (2 460 feet) resolution. In the images, light green represents vegetation, brown indicates dry or rocky land, and dark blue signifies lakes, rivers, or standing water.
Strongest winter storm of the season brings record snowfall across Virginia --The strongest winter storm of the season dropped record snowfall across Virginia, with some areas experiencing the heaviest snowfall in decades. Virginia Beach recorded a rare, record-breaking snowfall of over 25 cm (10 inches) from Wednesday to Thursday, February 19–20, 2025.
- Norfolk and Virginia Beach received rare and significant snowfall on February 19 and 20, with accumulations exceeding 250 mm (10 inches).
- The storm led to hazardous road conditions, causing multiple accidents.
- Virginia Beach closed all offices and facilities from Wednesday through Thursday, while waste collection and recycling services were rescheduled for Saturday, February 22.
The largest winter storm of the season has brought the heaviest snowfall in years to parts of Virginia, with snowfall rates reaching approximately 2.5 cm (1 inch) per hour. Much of Virginia Beach and Norfolk recorded rare snowfall exceeding 25 cm (10 inches) from Wednesday into Thursday.Norfolk International Airport (ORF) reported 26 cm (10.2 inches) of snowfall from the storm by Thursday morning. According to Jim Cantore from The Weather Channel, who arrived in the region on Wednesday to track the storm, this was the eighth-heaviest snowfall recorded for the area since records began in 1890.Reports indicate that parts of Virginia Beach city recorded approximately 32 cm (12.5 inches) of snow, making it the second-highest snowfall event for the area since 1989. Cantore also reported an unofficial snowfall total of 27.5 cm (10.8 inches) for Virginia Beach.The system is expected to continue moving eastward, bringing additional snow showers while cold, blustery conditions persist in the region. The City of Virginia Beach closed all offices and other facilities from Wednesday through Thursday due to the worsening storm conditions.Authorities advised residents to remain indoors due to hazardous weather and road conditions. Waste collection and recycling services are expected to be completed by Saturday, February 22.
Over 1 500 crashes reported as winter storm claims 4 lives across Nebraska, Tennessee and North Carolina (photos, video) A powerful winter storm swept across the U.S., causing over 1 500 crashes and claiming four lives in Tennessee, Nebraska, and North Carolina. The storm dumped rare, once-in-a-decade snow on Norfolk and Virginia Beach, where record snowfall piled up through Wednesday, February 19, 2025.A powerful winter storm swept through much of the southeastern U.S., claiming four lives across three states. It brought heavy snow, freezing rain, and ice accumulations, creating dangerous travel conditions that led to more than 1 500 vehicle crashes.Two fatalities were reported in Nebraska, including a state trooper. One death was reported in North Carolina, while another fatality occurred in Tennessee.The North Carolina Highway Patrol reported that 1 000 vehicles crashed on Wednesday, February 19, as the snowstorm moved through the state. One person died in a 50-vehicle crash on the westbound I-40 near Hillsborough. The state had already declared a state of emergency due to the storm on Tuesday, February 18.A Nebraska state trooper was killed after being struck by a snowplow while responding to a crash on Interstate 80. The crash involved a snowplow and two other vehicles between Ashland and Greenwood on Monday, February 17.According to the Nebraska State Patrol (NSP), the trooper was responding to one of 17 crashes and 96 assists on Monday morning. Virginia State Police reported 500 crashes and 45 injuries by 05:00 local time (LT) on Thursday, February 21, with multiple crashes occurring along the I-85 corridor.The number of crashes across the country is much higher, with reports of crashes across multiple states, including Oklahoma, Kansas, and Colorado.Reports of crashes and fatalities are expected to rise as more reports come in from the affected states. Travel conditions remain dangerous across much of the southeast, with snow still on the roads and reports of black ice in some states. The storm also brought heavy snowfall across multiple states, with Virginia making headlines as both Norfolk and the City of Virginia Beach recorded historic snowfall.
Bursting of century-old water main floods Detroit neighborhood - Hundreds of homes on Detroit’s southwest side were flooded early Monday morning after a nearly century-old water main burst, inundating a square mile of this working class, largely immigrant neighborhood. With wind-chill temperatures near zero, residents were forced to evacuate as first responders used boats, rafts and diving equipment to rescue those trapped by the rising water and ice. At a press conference, city officials reported that 54 adults, 22 children and 12 pets had been rescued by the afternoon, with emergency workers from several agencies going door to door to assist victims. Between 150 and 200 homes were damaged, along with an untold number of vehicles. The city’s 911 dispatchers reportedly began receiving calls about a loud boom in the area around 1:00 or 2:00 a.m. Monday morning. Residents posted videos of the fast-moving water and ice on TikTok and other social media platforms, quickly drawing widespread attention. The rupture of the steel pipe sent a torrent of water into the streets, reaching car windows and disabling scores of vehicles. Inside homes, floodwaters rose several feet in basements, knocking out furnaces, and damaging hot water heaters, washers and dryers. Many residents living in basement dwellings lost their belongings in the flood. A World Socialist Web Site reporting team spoke to residents in the neighborhood. Two young men and an older man, who were flooded out of a basement dwelling, said they escaped around 2:00 a.m. When they looked back, the water was nearly up to the ceiling. They managed to get out and returned in the afternoon to salvage whatever belongings they could. Two other workers were trying to dry out their engine, which had been flooded by the water main break. They stopped to show WSWS reporters where the water reached on their car. “We are going to have to fix this ourselves,” they said. “It can take weeks and months for the insurance companies to pay a claim, if they do at all.” Leo, a worker at a collision shop, described what happened after the water main burst: My parents alerted me, and we rushed to grab stuff from the basement because there was about five feet of water. The water is still in my basement. Hopefully this mess goes down some more, so I can get back with my family. When the water was coming into the basement, it sounded like a river, and you couldn’t really do anything to cover up the leaks. It started about 1:00 a.m., and by 2:00 it was up to your knees. By 4:00 it was up to my waistline. It was up to the hoods of most of the cars in my neighborhood. Hopefully the insurance will cover their cars. Some of my neighbors contacted the insurance companies, and they actually told them they don’t cover main water breaks, only small water breaks inside the house. That’s crazy because all these people are suffering. Hopefully, they get something from their home and car insurance. For those people who don’t have insurance, it’s going to be really bad. The young worker added: They say they haven’t worked on that pipe since the 1930s. Why wouldn’t they work on it? We are hard-working people here, and nobody deserves to have their homes flooded. I haven’t seen anything like this in the 20 years I’ve been alive and living here. Everything should be updated and maintained. A lot of people who are laid off could do that work, but they aren’t being given the opportunity.
Snow depth in Sukayu surpasses 5 m (16.4 feet) for second time since 1979, Japan Sukayu, in Japan’s Aomori Prefecture, measured 5.15 m (16.9 feet) of snow on Thursday, February 20, 2025, marking its heaviest snowfall in 12 years as a cold wave peaked along the Sea of Japan coast. The area exceeded the 5 m (16.4 feet) mark again at around 15:00 local time (LT) on Friday, February 21, as additional snowfall accumulated on top of the previous day’s snow. Snow levels fluctuated throughout Friday due to melting and fresh accumulation. The lowest recorded snow depth for the day was 4.92 m (16.1 feet) at 10:00 LT before levels began rising again. The last time Sukayu recorded more than 5.66 m (18.6 feet) of snow was on February 26, 2013. This marks only the second time the snow depth has exceeded 5 m (16.4 feet) since records began in 1979. The area has recorded a cumulative snowfall exceeding 14 m (45.9 feet) for the current winter season, indicative of persistent and intense cold-air outbreaks and significant moisture inflow from the Sea of Japan.
NASA finds a decades old landslide rapidly expanding in Los Angeles - A slow-moving landslide on the Palos Verdes Peninsula is accelerating, with new data from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) showing significant ground movement following extreme rainfall in 2023 and early 2024. Researchers at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California have discovered that the decades-old active landslide area on the Palos Verdes Peninsula has expanded. The discovery was made using data from airborne radar to measure the movement of slow-moving landslides on the Palos Verdes Peninsula in Los Angeles County. According to the analysis, land in the residential area moved toward the ocean at a rate of 10 cm (4 inches) per week between September 18 and October 17, 2024. Parts of the peninsula, which extends into the Pacific Ocean just south of Los Angeles, are part of an ancient landslide complex that has been active for at least 60 years, affecting hundreds of buildings in local communities. The movement accelerated, and the active area expanded following record-breaking rainfall in Southern California in 2023 and heavy precipitation in early 2024. The colors in the image below indicate how fast parts of the landslide complex were moving in late September and October, with the darkest reds indicating the highest speeds. The arrows represent the direction of horizontal motion. The white solid lines are the boundaries of the active landslide area as defined in 2007 by the California Geological Survey. Visualization of the landslide in Palos Verdes Peninsula. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory “In effect, we’re seeing that the area experiencing significant impacts has expanded, and the speed is sufficient to put human life and infrastructure at risk,” said Alexander Handwerger, the JPL landslide scientist who conducted the analysis.s
Over 550 earthquakes recorded at Campi Flegrei caldera, prompting school closures in Pozzuoli, Italy - An intense earthquake swarm is in progress in the Campi Flegrei volcanic caldera, southern Italy, since 15:53 UTC on February 15, 2025. More than 556 earthquakes with magnitudes up to M3.9 were registered by 13:00 UTC on February 18. As a precautionary measure, schools in the town of Pozzuoli, which is close to the epicenter of the earthquakes, are closed today. An intense earthquake swarm started at Campi Flegrei volcanic caldera — also known as Phlegrean Fields — at 16:53 LT (15:53 UTC) on February 15, with the area recording more than 556 earthquakes by 13:00 UTC on February 18, according to data provided by the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV). The two strongest earthquakes measured M3.9. The first occurred in the Gulf of Pozzuoli at 15:30 LT (14:30 UTC) on February 16, and the second near Pozzuoli at 00:19 LT on February 17 (23:19 UTC on February 16). In response to the increasing seismicity, Pozzuoli Mayor Gigi Manzoni ordered the closure of schools on February 18 to allow municipal technicians to conduct structural safety inspections. The country’s Civil Protection Department also deployed volunteer emergency responders and established temporary shelters for displaced residents in Pozzuoli, Bacoli, and Naples. Nello Musumeci, Civil Protection Minister, has appointed a special commissioner to oversee risk-prevention measures and has raised concerns over urban development in this seismically active region.
Twin M5.1 earthquakes hit Santorini area, Ios becomes fourth island under state of emergency, Greece - Ios became the fourth island in the Aegean to be placed under a state of emergency on February 15, following the trend set by Santorini on February 6, Amorgos on February 12, and Anafi on February 13, due to the ongoing seismic activity in the region since late January 2025. On January 18, two M5.1 quakes were registered between Santorini and Amorgos, shaking the area with enough intensity to be felt across multiple islands. Two M5.1 earthquakes struck between the islands of Santorini and Amorgos early on February 18, as an intense seismic swarm continued shaking the region. The quakes, recorded at a depth of 8 km (5 miles) at 04:46 and 06:08 UTC, were the fourth strongest since the sequence began in late January. This ongoing seismic activity has led to Ios becoming the fourth island in the Aegean to be placed under a state of emergency on February 15, following Santorini, Amorgos, and Anafi. The emergency status will remain in effect until March 14 as authorities continue to assess the region’s stability. Seismologists Dimitris Papanikolaou and Kostas Papazachos have recently dismissed concerns about the formation of a new volcano in the region. “This is an unprecedented phenomenon,” Papanikolaou said, adding that the seismic sequence could persist for months. He clarified that while magma movement is occurring at depths greater than 5 km (3.1 miles), the likelihood of a volcanic eruption is low. “There is no chance of a volcanic eruption right now. Both volcanoes are calm,” he added, referring to nearby Santorini and Kolumbos volcanoes. “We had many volcanic earthquakes in 2011 and again this past fall. This is a different phenomenon we are studying,” Papanikolaou explained. Athens and Airbnb have launched a program to provide free temporary housing for up to 200 displaced families from Santorini, Amorgos, Anafi, and Ios. Affected residents can call to request accommodation for up to ten days of covered costs. Greece’s Minister of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection, Vassilis Kikilias, announced the construction of an “escape port” on Santorini to enhance emergency response capabilities. The project, developed in collaboration with the Greek Armed Forces, will allow passenger ships to evacuate residents swiftly in case of a major earthquake. Kikilias also urged scientists to communicate responsibly. “People are not required to understand scientific terminology. Our priority is the safety of our citizens,” he stated. Santorini, a tourist island that receives over 1.3 million visitors annually, is now experiencing economic losses as cruise lines have rerouted ships to alternative destinations such as Crete and Syros. Meanwhile, industry representatives have raised concerns about the absence of a dedicated emergency port and infrastructure improvements for cruise operations. The Greek government has announced financial aid for affected businesses while schools remain closed as a precaution.
Emergency escape port planned in Santorini, schools remain closed as intense earthquake swarm continues in GreeceSchools in Santorini, Ios, Anafi, and Amorgos will remain closed at least until February 21, 2025, as the Greek government prepares for another meeting to assess seismic risks in the Aegean Sea near Santorini. Over 1 300 earthquakes were recorded with a magnitude above 3.0 in the sea area near Anydros since the beginning of the month, with the strongest reaching M5.3. The government also announced plans to build an emergency escape port in Santorini in addition to the new port under development. Earthquakes near Santorini, Greece on February 20, 2025, from last 30 days Earthquakes near Santorini, Greece in 30 days to February 20, 2025. Image credit: TW/SAM, Google Greece’s Ministry of Climate Crisis and Civil Protection held a critical meeting to address an ongoing seismic swarm in the Aegean Sea on February 16. The session, led by Professor Efthimios Lekkas, president of the Organization of Anti-Seismic Planning and Protection (OASP), brought together key officials and scientists to evaluate the situation and coordinate a response. With thousands of earthquakes recorded since early February, the government is taking proactive steps to ensure public safety and bolster infrastructure. The strongest event in the series that started in late January was the M5.3 quake at 13:04 UTC on February 4.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 1 in 38 chance of impact in 2032 - The impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 in 2032 increased from 1.8% to 2.6% (1 in 38) with new trajectory simulations and refined calculations. While the increase remains within a low-risk range, continued monitoring and additional observations will be necessary to further refine impact predictions. Asteroid 2024 YR4 orbit visualization - February 18, 2025. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been in the headlines in recent weeks as its impact probability continues to rise, earning it the designation of a potential “city destroyer.” The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen again, now estimated at 2.6% for 2032, equivalent to a 1 in 38 chance, according to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Center for Near-Earth Object (NEO) Studies. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Near-Earth Objects Coordination Centre (NEOCC) estimates the risk at approximately 2.4%. Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on December 27, 2024. ATLAS consists of multiple telescopes worldwide and is managed by the University of Hawaii’s Institute for Astronomy. The increase is not unexpected, as scientists had predicted that the impact probability would rise before declining as more observational data becomes available. Risk corridor for asteroid 2024 YR4 on 22 December 2032, using data from observations made up to 17 February 2025. Image credit: ESA/Planetary Defence Office The asteroid’s size is estimated to be between 40 – 90 m (130 – 295 feet). The uncertainty in this estimate arises because scientists study the asteroid based on the sunlight it reflects, meaning measurements vary depending on the asteroid’s surface reflectivity. This plot shows how close asteroid 2024 YR4 is expected to get to Earth on 22 December 2032. It is measured in Lunar Distances (LD), where one LD is the average distance between Earth and the Moon – roughly 384 400 km. Image credit: Credit: ESA/Planetary Defence Office Scientists using the James Webb Space Telescope to study the asteroid suggest that it could be either 40 m (130 feet) across and highly reflective or 90 m (295 feet) across and less reflective. Determining an accurate size is crucial, as the impact of a 40 m asteroid would differ significantly from that of a 90 m asteroid. It is worth noting that impact outcomes would depend on numerous variables, including the asteroid’s material composition, the precise entry angle, and local environmental conditions at the time of impact. For comparison, the Chelyabinsk asteroid, which exploded over Russia on February 15, 2013, was estimated to be about 20 m (66 feet) in diameter before entering Earth’s atmosphere. The impact released an energy equivalent to 400 – 500 kilotons of TNT, making it 26 – 33 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
'City killer' asteroid now has 3.1% chance of hitting Earth: NASA - An asteroid that could level a city now has a 3.1-percent chance of striking Earth in 2032, according to NASA data released Tuesday—making it the most threatening space rock ever recorded by modern forecasting. Despite the rising odds, experts say there is no need for alarm. The global astronomical community is closely monitoring the situation and the James Webb Space Telescope is set to fix its gaze on the object, known as 2024 YR4, next month."I'm not panicking," Bruce Betts, chief scientist for the nonprofit Planetary Society told AFP."Naturally when you see the percentages go up, it doesn't make you feel warm and fuzzy and good," he added, but explained that as astronomers gather more data, the probability will likely edge up before rapidly dropping to zero.2024 YR4 was first detected on December 27 last year by the El Sauce Observatory in Chile.Astronomers estimate its size to be between 130 and 300 feet (40–90 meters) wide, based on its brightness. Analysis of its light signatures suggests it has a fairly typical composition, rather than being a rare metal-rich asteroid. The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), a worldwide planetary defense collaboration, issued a warning memo on January 29 after the impact probability had crossed one percent. Since then, the figure has fluctuated but continues to trend upward. NASA's latest calculations estimate the impact probability at 3.1 percent, with a potential Earth impact date of December 22, 2032. That translates to odds of one in 32—roughly the same as correctly guessing the outcome of five consecutive coin tosses.The last time an asteroid of greater than 30 meters in size posed such a significant risk was Apophis in 2004, when it briefly had a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029—a possibility later ruled out by additional observations. Surpassing that threshold is "historic," said Richard Moissl, head of the European Space Agency's planetary defense office, which puts the risk slightly lower at 2.8 percent."It's a very, very rare event," he told AFP, but added, "This is not a crisis at this point in time. This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city." If the risk rises over 10 percent, IAWN would issue a formal warning, leading to a "recommendation for all UN members who have territories in potentially threatened areas to start terrestrial preparedness," explained Moissl. Unlike the six-mile-wide (10-kilometer-wide) asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, 2024 YR4 is classified as a "city killer"—not a global catastrophe, but still capable of causing significant destruction.Its potential devastation comes less from its size and more from its velocity, which could be nearly 40,000 miles per hour if it hits.If it enters Earth's atmosphere, the most likely scenario is an airburst, meaning it would explode midair with a force of approximately eight megatons of TNT—more than 500 times the power of the Hiroshima bomb.But an impact crater cannot be ruled out if the size is closer to the higher end of estimates, said Betts. The potential impact corridor spans the eastern Pacific, northern South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, and South Asia—though Moissl emphasized it is far too early for people to consider drastic decisions like relocation.The good news: there's ample time to act. NASA's 2022 DART mission proved that spacecraft can successfully alter an asteroid's path, and scientists have theorized other methods, such as using lasers to create thrust by vaporizing part of the surface, pulling it off course with a spacecraft's gravity, or even using nuclear explosions as a last resort.
Colorado River negotiators feel pressure to strike a deal - State officials negotiating a new long-term operating plan for the drought-ravaged Colorado River are warning that time is running short to reach an agreement among the seven states that share the waterway. During a Tuesday meeting of the Upper Colorado River Commission — which represents the states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming — negotiators raised concerns that a deal must be in place by “early summer,” or they risk being excluded from necessary environmental impact assessments. A series of existing agreements that govern the Colorado River will expire at the end of 2026, including how reductions are applied when the waterway’s flows are insufficient to meet the needs of the 40 million individuals and 5.5 million acres of farmland that rely on it. The river is shared by the Upper Basin states and the Lower Basin, or Arizona, California and Nevada.
California lawmaker proposes state-level ‘forever chemical’ limits --In a statement, White House spokesperson Harrison Fields noted President Trump has nominated “the highly qualified and talented Frank Bisignano” to lead the agency.“We expect him to be swiftly confirmed in the coming weeks,” Fields said. “In the meantime, the agency will be led by a career Social Security anti-fraud expert as the acting commissioner.”He added that Trump is committed to appointing “the best and most qualified” people to work on behalf of the American people, “not to appease the bureaucracy that has failed them for far too long.”The AP noted that King’s departure is one of several from high-ranking officials, as DOGE seeks access to various federal departments and agencies, including the IRS and the Treasury Department.Trump appointed Leland Dudek to lead the agency on an acting basis while Bisignano, the CEO of financial software giant Fiserv, awaits Senate confirmation. Selecting Dudek means Trump bypassed several other senior executives who were higher ranking, causing concern among employees, The Washington Post reported.“To pick an acting commissioner that is not in the senior executive service sends a message that professional people should leave that beleaguered public agency,” Martin O’Malley, the Social Security commissioner under the Biden administration, said, according to the Post.DOGE seeking access to sensitive information at the agency has sounded alarm bells, as the data collected and stored includes Social Security numbers, Medicare information and applications for supplemental income programs.About 72.5 million people, including retirees, disabled people and children, receive benefits from Social Security.
Energy secretary blasts ‘sinister’ zero carbon emissions goal -- Energy Secretary Chris Wright denounced efforts to achieve net zero carbon emissions by midcentury as a “sinister goal” in remarks at a conservative policy conference Monday. “Net zero 2050 is a sinister goal, it’s a terrible goal,” Wright said to applause at the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship forum in London, where he spoke through a video link. “It’s both unachievable by any practical means [and] the aggressive pursuit of it — and you’re sitting in a country that has aggressively pursued this goal — has not delivered any benefits, but it’s delivered tremendous costs.” Wright, a former fracking executive, claimed that countries that set net zero goals simply “export your industry.” “This is not energy transition, this is lunacy,” he said, echoing remarks he made in 2023 that “there is no climate crisis, and we’re not in the midst of an energy transition either.” The Biden administration set a goal in 2021 of reaching net zero by 2050, but Wright and President Trump have worked to roll back much of their predecessors’ promotion of renewable energy to shift back to promotion of fossil fuel development since taking office. Carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions are the primary cause of climate change. Wright’s fellow Trump Cabinet member Interior Secretary Doug Burgum had set a goal of net zero for his state by 2030 when he served as governor of North Dakota. Burgum, who led the No. 3 oil producing state in the nation, vocally backed the notion that net zero was achievable without decreasing fossil fuel production through the use of largely untested carbon capture technology.
Senate confirms Lutnick along party lines - The Senate has confirmed another one of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees with power over energy, environment and climate policy. Senators voted 51-45 for businessman Howard Lutnick to lead the Department of Commerce — including NOAA, its weather, fisheries and climate bureau. Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania was the only Democrat to vote for Lutnick in committee. No Democrat voted for him on the floor. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has spoken several times in Lutnick’s support, including for broadband development and artificial intelligence.
‘Clean’ hydrogen hubs in limbo as Trump eyes DOE overhaul - The Department of Energy’s “clean” hydrogen hubs are setting up a critical test for President Donald Trump on how to handle funding for one of the signature climate initiatives from the bipartisan infrastructure law. DOE canceled multiple meetings scheduled this week on the program, which is backed by $7 billion from the 2021 law to produce low-carbon fuel at seven hubs. One meeting was to discuss an environmental review for the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub. That followed similar cancellations for public meetings on the Appalachian Hydrogen Hub and a webinar to discuss funding for the Mid-Atlantic Hydrogen Hub.The cancellations “might be the first indication of a change in posture towards the hydrogen hub program in the new administration,” said Tom Torres, an organizer with the Ohio River Valley Institute, a nonprofit group opposed to the Appalachian Hub (ARCH2) spanning parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Ohio. The moves come as DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, which funds the program, has taken down multiple hub pages from its website since Trump was inaugurated, including links to fact sheets and announcements outlining the program.
Plug Power Plans Major Hydrogen Production Plants in India -- A U.S.-headquartered manufacturer of green hydrogen fuel cells wants to build what the company’s president called “multi-gigawatt” electrolyzer projects in India. Sanjay Shrestha, president of New York-based Plug Power, in an interview with ETEnergy World said, “We will be excited to be doing multi-gigawatt electrolyzer projects in India before the end of 2030 depending on demand and cost drivers driven by the Indian government.” Plug Power in January received a $1.7-billion loan guarantee from the U.S. Dept. of Energy, one of the last energy-related loans from the outgoing Biden administration.Shrestha said his company was looking to collaborate with a partner in India to gain a better understanding of that country’s market for hydrogen. “We are happy to collaborate with a big player locally in India who understands the market here better than we do and has much bigger reach in the local market so that we can get this industry jumpstarted by driving cost down, and bringing green hydrogen at economic parity much sooner,” said Shrestha. Green hydrogen is hydrogen produced using renewable energy. The executive said Plug Power would explore strategic partnerships within the hydrogen industry if it can grow its projects in India, noting that could depend on mandates for the use of hydrogen from the Indian government.Shrestha said the Indian government should look at production tax credits for hydrogen, similar to those established in the U.S. by the Inflation Reduction Act. Other countries, including Australia, also have passed legislation calling for tax credits for hydrogen production.Plug Power currently operates a 1.2-GW electrolyzer factory in Rochester, New York. The company has said it could expand that facility without significant additional investment. Plug Power in early 2024 began operating a green hydrogen production plant in Woodbine, Georgia; that plant has eight 5-MW PEM (proton exchange membrane) electrolyzers. The company also is nearing completion of a 100-MW PEM electrolyzer project in Europe.
Trump order threatens wind projects that could power millions of homes -- President Donald Trump promised to unleash U.S. energy dominance, but his sweeping executive order targeting wind power puts a pipeline of projects at risk that would generate enough electricity for millions of American homes. The order Trump issued on his first day in office indefinitely paused new offshore wind leases in U.S. coastal waters and halted new permits pending the completion of a review. The order jeopardizes proposed projects on the East Coast that have not yet secured permits totaling 32 gigawatts of power, according to data from the consulting firm Aurora Energy Research. "At the moment, it's really hard to see how any of these projects will be able to move forward," said Artem Abramov, head of new energies research at the consultancy Rystad. Like Aurora, Rystad estimates that around 30 gigawatts of projects on the U.S. East Coast are at risk. Those projects, if realized, would provide enough combined power for more than 12 million homes in the U.S., according a CNBC analysis of data from the Energy Information Administration. The order is not expected to impact projects under construction totaling about 5 gigawatts, according to Aurora. Trump has abandoned commitments made during the Biden administration to fight climate change, withdrawing the U.S. for a second time from the Paris agreement. He has focused on boosting fossil fuel production, opening U.S. coastal waters to oil and gas leasing on the same day he withdrew those waters for wind. Trump's order will jeopardize the efforts of states in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to transition away from fossil fuels and decarbonize their electric grid, Abramov said. New York, New Jersey and Virginia, for example, have ambitious clean energy goals adopted at the state level. But they are too far north to rely on solar with battery for power, Abramov said. "If you want to achieve the future where the power generation in New York or New Jersey or Virginia is completely fossil free, if that's the ultimate goal, there are not so many alternatives to offshore wind," Abramov said. The order could ultimately force states to rely more on carbon-emitting natural gas, according to Rystad and Aurora. But it is virtually impossible for a state like New York to meet its climate goals and ensure an adequate energy supply, particularly downstate in the New York City metro area, without offshore wind, said Julia Hoos, who heads Aurora's U.S. East division. Power projects waiting in line to connect to the electric grid in downstate New York through 2027 are almost entirely wind and transmission, Hoos said. "There is virtually no possibility to bring online new gas in the next 18 to 24 months, unless there's a significant reform or there's some sort of fast track to bring online that gas, so you really can run into reliability issues," Hoos said. But more natural gas generation will likely be built later in the decade on the back of Trump's policies, Hoos said. Investor sentiment was already shifting toward gas before the election results due in part to the need for reliable power to meet demand from artificial intelligence data centers, Abramov said. Two weeks after Trump's order, New Jersey decided against moving forward for now with the Atlantic Shores project, which stood to become the first offshore wind development in the state. The state utilities board cited "uncertainty driven by federal actions and permitting" and European oil major Shell pulling out of the project. "The offshore wind industry is currently facing significant challenges, and now is the time for patience and prudence," Gov. Phil Murphy said in a statement backing the board's decision.
House bill would change Ohio’s energy generating model aiming for reliable, affordable energy — Being able to afford energy is one of the most essential things here in Ohio, and according to the Buckeye Institute, government regulations and subsidies have increased the price of energy. While Ohioans are facing challenges because the demand for energy is growing, especially during colder months, HB15 is now aiming to turn things around. State Rep. Roy Klopfenstein, R–Haviland, is working with his colleagues to change that. One of the things it does it ends subsidies. “If we’re going to have a free-market energy production," Klopfenstein said. "It’s not free market when we’re subsidizing it. So we want to do away with those subsidies and make it a true free market.” Subsidies have been a huge discussion ever since the passing of House Bill 6back in 2019.“There’s probably some good things that may have come out of it,” Klopfenstein said. "But at this point, if we want to move forward with enough energy production to power Ohio and retain and bring new businesses here, we got to change the model.”HB6 carries one of the biggest bribery scandals in Ohio’s utilities, as it had increased electricity prices though a subsidy.Two nuclear power plants at the time offered millions to lawmakers to bail them out, and several officials—including former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder—were convicted.State Rep. Chris Glassburn, D-North Olmsted, said his caucus is supportive of HB15, but they have some concerns.“Not every part of the state’s energy policy was driven by corruption,” Glassburn said. “But there are still significant pieces that are in place that have not changed. People have gone to jail, but the laws that they passed are still on the books.”Glassburn said he sees that the goal of this bill is to generate more electricity, more gas and other types of generation of electricity that would enhance reliability on the grid, but also lower costs for homeowners or consumers, but the Democratic caucus is working through the details to make sure that this is what it actually does.“We want there to be a fair and open playing field so that we’re not favoring one source over another,” Glassburn said. “Because we need the market to come in and bring in the cheapest, affordable and responsible energy we can.”Klopfestein said there are a lot of smaller things that this bill does as well. One of them is at its initial proposal: it transfers tangible property tax from generation facilities and distribution systems.“There’s one of those components, which is the tangible personal property tax, it’s very complicated as written, I don’t know that it will be in that form as it’s written,” Klopfestein said. “But certainly, when Ohio taxes new power plants and the surrounding states do not, it places them at a disadvantage.”The bill also gives consumer choice, Klopfestein said, as some people will prefer to get only one bill.But there’s a complexity to it, because it would take some of the suppliers and distribution companies to have to update their software, Klopfestein said, to facilitate something like this.Klopfestein wants to eliminate any concerns, and the goal of this bill is to elevate Ohio’s generation of energy.The bill has already had a couple of hearings. The next one is coming up next week as he hopes to see it for a vote at the House floor by the end of March.“This is going to be a very open discussion. We’re not doing this behind closed doors,” Klopfestein said. “It’s affordable reliable energy and if we do it right, we’re set for the next generation of prosperity and development here in Ohio.”
Bipartisan bill would create wildland fire agency - Two senators have proposed legislation to reorganize the federal government’s response to wildfire, just as the Trump administration’s moves to slash spending are upending land management agencies. Sens. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) and Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) introduced the “Fit for Purpose Wildfire Readiness Act,” which would combine the Forest Service and Interior Department’s efforts under a National Wildland Firefighting Service. The new agency would be part of Interior, and the lawmakers said its creation would clarify and streamline responsibilities that are now divided. Wildfire suppression has grown to more than half of the Forest Service’s annual budget, which totaled $9.3 billion in fiscal 2024. Although the concept of a combined fire agency has been debated for years, the lawmakers raise it as a number of issues confront wildfire crews, including worries that the Trump administration’s makeover of the government is inflicting collateral — if unintended — damage on wildfire capacity.
What environmental agency firings could mean for energy, pollution, national parks -The consequences of the Trump administration firing thousands of environmental employees from the federal government could range from worsened responses to pollution to less access at national parks, former federal officials are warning. Late last week, the administration fired thousands of “probationary” officials — those who had been employed for a relatively short period of time — at various agencies including the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Interior Department. The EPA let nearly 400 staffers go while the Interior Department lost 2,300. That’s about 3 percent of each agency’s workforce. While the job functions of those let go are not fully clear, former officials say the cuts could hamstring the agencies’ abilities to carry out their missions. “The public health is going to be at risk, and certainly environmental protection,” said Jennifer Orme-Zavaleta, who worked at the EPA for about 40 years. “If there were some kind of an environmental incident, if it was another East Palestine train wreck. We just had the wildfires in California. … It’s going to be difficult to mount a federal response to help out, and that’s going to put a huge added burden on states who are already under-resourced to deal with these things,” she said. The EPA said last week that the firings came after “a thorough review of agency functions in accordance with President Trump’s executive orders.” “EPA has followed standard protocols and procedures, ensuring impacted staff received notification of their status. President Trump was elected with a mandate to create a more effective and efficient federal government that serves all Americans, and we are doing just that,” the agency said. The EPA is in charge of protecting human health and the environment, including by setting limits on pollution and responding to contamination. Meanwhile, the Interior Department’s broad mission includes national parks, endangered species, energy development on public lands and tribal affairs. It’s not entirely clear how many staffers came from each program. The Washington Post reported that 1,000 national parks workers were fired, though the National Park Service is reinstating seasonal job offers for 5,000 people. Phil Francis, a former National Park Service official who, among other roles, was superintendent of the Blue Ridge Parkway, said that for national parks alone, the consequences of the firings could be far-reaching.
Poll: Western voters oppose public lands funding cuts - Voters in the American West overwhelmingly support federal land management agencies and oppose cuts to their funding, according to an annual survey released Wednesday. Colorado College’s “Conservation in the West” poll found that people in Western states approve of the work of agencies like the National Park Service and EPA. The survey also found that voters across parties prefer that lawmakers prioritize conservation, rather than energy development, on federal public lands. The survey comes as President Donald Trump has announced sweeping cuts to agencies that manage public lands, including mass firings at the Interior Department and Forest Service. The poll was conducted in January, before Trump took office. Of the 3,316 voters surveyed, 75 percent opposed reducing funding to land management agencies, including 69 percent of self-identified “Make America Great Again” voters.
Trump admin backpedals on public power staffing cuts - The Trump administration this weekend reversed some staffing cuts at agencies that control and distribute power from massive dams in the West, after customers warned that the purge of probationary employees could jeopardize grid reliability.News of staff reductions last week at the Department of Energy’s four power marketing administrations, or PMAs, were met swiftly with condemnation, with lawmakers and power customers warning that the moves significantly increased the risk of blackouts. PMAs sell and deliver low-cost power from federal hydroelectric dams to customers across 34 states, as well as operate transmission lines across the western United States.For example, the Bonneville Power Administration, which operates much of the electricity grid in the Pacific Northwest and sells power from 31 federal dams, was expected to lose at least 13 percent of its staff of more than 3,000 people. That included about a quarter of the BPA’s real-time power dispatchers, according to outside sources familiar with the staffing changes.Likewise, the Western Area Power Administration, which controls transmission and hydropower in a 15-state region in the central and western U.S., was expected to lose about 15 to 20 percent of its 1,500-person staff.
Trump admin seeks pause in soot standard litigation - EPA is asking a federal court for a 60-day freeze on proceedings in litigation over the Biden administration’s decision last year to tighten a key soot exposure standard.If granted, the freeze could be a first step under President Donald Trump to partially roll back or reverse that decision. The freeze is warranted “because courts have long recognized that agencies may generally review and, if appropriate, revise their past decisions,” attorneys for EPA wrote in the motion filed Tuesday afternoon with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. A three-judge panel heard oral arguments in the litigation in mid-December, with questions suggesting that they were poised to uphold the rule issued a year ago strengthening the annual soot standard from 12 micrograms per cubic meter of air to 9 micrograms.
Senate hearing looks to kick-start permitting negotiations - Lawmakers who failed to cinch a bipartisan permitting and transmission deal late last year are now going back to the drawing board. Their first chance to write a new story comes Wednesday, as the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will convene a hearing on federal environmental reviews. Senators will hear from executives in the building and energy industries who have long carped about the country’s slow project approval process process. The EPW hearing is not the only place permitting talks are bubbling up. Lawmakers in both chambers have restarted conversations after a last-gasp effort collapsed last year. Several key players have left Congress, most notably former Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who led a bipartisan bill last year that advanced out of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee but did not get a floor vote. Lawmakers on that committee are seeking to resurrect features of that bill, the “Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024,” co-sponsored by Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who was then the panel’s ranking member and is now the No. 2 Republican in the Senate. Manchin and Barrasso’s compromise measure contained a mix of benefits for the oil, gas, mining and renewable industries as well as provisions making it easier to build massive power lines across state lines. “I think what we did in the Senate in the ENR Committee last year had very broad bipartisan support, and you know, I think that’s a good place to start,” new ranking member Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) told POLITICO’s E&E News, adding he’s been talking with new Senate Energy Chair Mike Lee (R-Utah). Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), who was in the room during talks in December, said, “I don’t think it would be surprising if at least the start of negotiations were pretty similar to Manchin-Barrasso. Obviously, many Democrats had heartburn, and many Republicans had heartburn. That’s called a compromise.” Republicans and Democrats, however, remain far apart on environmental policy. In the House, Natural Resources Chair Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.) says he has restarted bipartisan talks. Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) has long been a proponent of deep changes and has been negotiating with Westerman. But one key Democrat, Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), the progressive ranking member on Natural Resources, says he hasn’t yet been invited to the party. Still, many Democrats have continued to inch closer to support changing old-school environmental laws, showing a greater willingness to defy green groups who largely remain opposed to altering the National Environmental Policy Act, the Clean Water Act or the Clean Air Act out of concern for communities already burdened by pollution and neglect.Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are in near-universal agreement that more generation is needed for an energy-hungry nation. The tech industry in particular has pressured Congress to act, pointing to massive energy needs for artificial intelligence computing.And while Republicans believe President Donald Trump can accelerate permitting on his own, his plans to dramatically shrink the workforce could further stymie the cumbersome permitting process.
Army Corps picks energy projects for quick permits - The Army Corps of Engineers has identified hundreds of energy projects that could be fast-tracked for federal permits in response to President Donald Trump’s “energy emergency” declaration. Projects tapped for “emergency” permits include Enbridge’s Line 5 oil pipeline under Lake Michigan, a pipeline linked to an oil terminal near Freeport, Texas, and a sprawling gold mining project in Idaho, according to permitting data listed on the agency’s website. The Army Corps could potentially approve the roughly 600 pending permits without going through the normal environmental review process under the Clean Water Act, legal experts said. Advertisement While the agency hasn’t issued any permits yet in response to Trump’s declaration, environmental advocates say that approving just some of the permits would allow for the destruction of hundreds of acres of wetlands. “What we have here is a situation of a pretext of a national energy emergency, and asking a federal agency to basically circumvent the environmental protections in order to justify building more fossil fuel projects,” David Bookbinder, director of law and policy for the Environmental Integrity Project, said on a call with reporters Wednesday. Some permits identified by the corps appear to be unrelated to Trump’s executive order declaring an emergency. The order called for immediate expansion of fossil fuel production, mines and other energy projects, with the notable exception of solar and wind farms. For example, a water pipeline in the Tampa Bay area is listed as eligible for an emergency Army Corps permit, as is a housing subdivision in California. Permits tied to natural gas export projects in the Gulf Coast, as well as some solar farms and electric transmission lines, are listed as eligible for emergency permits as well. The Army Corps did not answer questions about how the permits were identified or about whether the projects would be exempt from environmental reviews. But spokesperson Douglas Garman said the agency was continuing to review permit applications potentially subject to Trump’s order. Carrie Fox, a public affairs specialist for the Army Corps’ Detroit District, added that the agency was following Trump’s orders. “The Department of Defense will fully execute and implement all directives outlined in the executive orders issued by the President, ensuring that they are carried out with the utmost professionalism, efficiency, and in alignment with national security objectives,” Fox said in an emailed statement. “Executive Order 14156: Declaring a National Energy Emergency requires the Assistant Secretary of the Army for Civil Works to take certain actions, and we will work with the new administration to implement the Order’s requirements,” she added. Under the Clean Water Act, the Army Corps is charged with reviewing federal permits for activities that could affect wetlands and surface waters. A company seeking to fill in wetlands to build a subdivision, for example, would typically need approval from the Corps first. At times, the agency has required companies to avoid harming waters and wetlands or to commit to restoring wetlands elsewhere in order to offset for pollution from their project. But Trump’s executive order directed the agency to give some projects “emergency treatment” pursuant to the Clean Water Act. Environmental advocates fear that could mean that no water permits — or environmental mitigation — would be required and that communities affected by projects will be shut out of the permitting process.
Trump administration identifies hundreds of energy projects that could be fast-tracked - The Trump administration has identified hundreds of “emergency” energy projects whose approvals could be fast-tracked. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has updated its website to put hundreds of new projects on its emergency docket under President Trump’s energy emergency declaration. Among those on the list are approval for the construction of a tunnel that would allow a segment of the controversial Line 5 pipeline to run through Michigan’s Straits of Mackinac. The Corps’s website states that projects that are considered “emergencies” can be expedited. The Corps did not directly respond to questions as to whether the projects identified under the executive order would be given such treatment. Instead, Army Corps spokesperson Doug Garman said via email that the agency “is in the process of reviewing active permit applications relative to the Executive Order.” The agency’s website states that an “emergency” is a situation that would result in an unacceptable hazard to life, a significant loss of property or an immediate, unforeseen and significant economic hardship As of Wednesday afternoon, 593 pending permits for about 350 projects were listed as being on the emergency docket because of Trump’s declaration. Many of them are for fossil fuel-related projects, including various pipelines, oil well pads and projects related to coal and gas. However, solar energy projects also appear on the list. Nevertheless, environmental organizations expressed concerns that the federal government may not give these expedited projects a full environmental review. “The Trump Administration appears to be gearing up to use false claims of an ‘energy emergency’ to fast-track and rubber-stamp federal approvals for projects across the country that will be destructive to America’s wetlands, waterways, and communities,” said David Bookbinder, director of law and policy at the Environmental Integrity Project, in a written statement. “This end-run around the normal environmental review process is not only harmful for our waters, but is illegal under the Corps’ own emergency permitting regulations,” he added. His group highlighted projects that it found to be of particular concern, including not only Line 5, but also potential permits for an oil pipeline running beneath Louisiana’s Sabine Lake, a major gas-fueled power plant in Texas, expansion of a sand and gravel mine in Pennsylvania and a gold mine inside a national forest in Idaho. Trump declared a national energy emergency on his first day in office and has repeatedly argued that the U.S. faces an emergency situation due to Biden’s energy policies. Under Biden, oil production reached new highs. However, the Biden administration also took steps to restrict oil and gas drilling on public lands and in public waters. The declaration itself directs the leaders of federal agencies to identify any emergency authorities they may have to facilitate the production or processing of energy.
California utility regulator releases affordability recommendations - California utility regulators Tuesday released a set of recommendations to California Gov. Gavin Newsom for reducing high electric bills, including paying for programs through non-ratepayer funding and tweaking benefits to customers who install rooftop solar.The California Public Utilities Commission delivered its report that Newsom mandated in October as part of a suite of actions aimed at mitigating the rising costs of electricity in the state.The report says the main factors driving high electricity rates are utilities’ wildfire mitigation spending and the cost shift that results from legacy net energy metering programs, which give credits to customers who generate electricity with rooftop solar and sell it to the grid. Investments in utility transmission and distribution infrastructure are a secondary factor driving rate increases, according to the report. The report presents various ideas to reduce costs, including searching for other sources of funding to supplement wildfire mitigation programs and incorporating wildfire mitigation into utilities’ general rate cases, which would bring more scrutiny to spending in that area to prioritize the most cost-effective options.
FERC Launches Investigation of PJM Grid Co-Location of Data Centers - Marcellus Drilling News -- We’re still coming to grips with understanding how the power generation market works with respect to providing electricity for AI data centers. Data centers can potentially be huge and important new customers for natural gas—especially Marcellus/Utica molecules, as some 25% of all the data centers currently operating in the country are located in northern Virginia, where they use M-U molecules. Ten days ago, we brought you a post to help you better understand the various scenarios for how powergen gets provided to these data centers (see A Better Understanding of AI Data Centers & On-Site Powergen). We need to add a new category/term to the list—co-location. FERC has just fired off a directive to PJM Interconnection, the country’s largest electric grid operator (covering PA, WV, and OH, among other states), asking PJM to explain how it handles co-location. This increasingly popular AI data center electricity arrangement allows the computer warehouses to connect directly to power plants.
Trump EO Puts FERC, SEC, Other Agencies Under White House Control-- Marcellus Drilling News - Two days ago, President Trump signed yet another executive order, this one called “Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies.” We’ve lost count of how many he’s signed! This latest EO is a really, hairy, big deal. This EO gives the president sweeping control over the budgets, policies, and regulations of independent U.S. agencies that oversee the energy sector, financial markets, trade, and transportation. Agencies like the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Predictably, the left is shouting, “Dictator!” They are in full meltdown mode. The right is arguing the 50+ “independent” agencies created by Congress (but nominally under the Executive Branch) are an unelected bureaucracy not accountable to anyone—not to the President, not to Congress, and not to the courts. If this EO stands, it will fundamentally remake our federal government. That’s not hyperbole.
DOE fires and then rehires nuclear staff -- The Department of Energy said over the weekend that it ultimately dismissed fewer than 50 employees from its branch overseeing U.S. nuclear weapons, capping several days of confusion after the agency fired hundreds of staffers only to reinstate some of them.DOE’s estimate was contested by Democrats and some current and former employees. But in an emailed statement, DOE asserted that the dismissals at the National Nuclear Security Administration involved probationary employees in “primarily administrative and clerical roles.”“The Energy Department will continue its critical mission of protecting our national security and nuclear deterrence in the development, modernization, and stewardship of America’s atomic weapons enterprise, including the peaceful use of nuclear technology and nonproliferation,” the DOE statement said. DOE’s tally comes after more than 300 people were initially laid off at NNSA before the agency’s acting director Teresa Robbins issued a memo Friday night rescinding many of those firings, according to people familiar with the matter. DOE also fired and then unfired federal workers who help run the power grid in the Pacific Northwest.
First fracking well under state wildlife areas has been drilled, officials say – Cleveland.com A Houston-based oil and gas company has drilled the first fracking well beneath Ohio’s preserved park and wildlife lands.Ohio Department of Natural Resources Director Mary Mertz told the House Natural Resources Committee this week that one well has been drilled, but it is not yet producing any oil or gas. A department spokeswoman later confirmed Mertz was referring to land beneath Valley Run Wildlife Area in Carroll County, where Encino Energy won mineral rights.“The unit is not in the wildlife area and there are no surface impacts to the wildlife area,” said agency spokeswoman Karina Cheung. “The wells have been drilled and are not in the production phase.”The well was planned to sit northwest of Valley Run, just under 2 miles away, documents show.That is possible via an extraction technique called hydraulic fracturing — better known as fracking — in which operators drill down thousands of feet vertically from a well pad at an adjacent property before turning 90 degrees and reaching laterally for miles. From there, they pump water, sand and a chemical cocktail under high pressure to free methane (natural gas) from the underground shale. They then pump the gas and the spent brine back to the surface. Encino paid more than $1 million to the state as a signing bonus and will pay 18% on royalties from any gas the well produces.An Encino spokeswoman declined to comment or offer timing on when production might begin.The state Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has previously opened up 6,584 acres of land at Salt Fork State Park, plus smaller tracts at Keen Wildlife Area, Zepernick Wildlife Area, Leesville Wildlife Area and Egypt Valley Wildlife Area. Developers have also asked the state to open Jockey Hollow Wildlife area as well. Technically, Republican state lawmakers first allowed agencies to lease their lands in 2011. However, the leasing program remained dormant under Gov. John Kasich and the Gov. Mike DeWine’s first four-year term.But Republican lawmakers in 2022 effectively force started the program by passing new legislation, which also legally redefined natural gas as “green energy.” DeWine signed the bill but said he would not allow any drilling to occur at the surface level in state parks and wildlife areas.Under state law, 30% of the lease proceeds must go toward capital expenditures at that specific site. Lawmakers and state officials are now sorting out what to do with the rest. According to Mertz, there’s about $40 million left over from the first round of lease bonus payments. Her department formally asked state lawmakers to allocate the money to the Division of Parks and Watercraft, in lieu of a general revenue fund increase, to pay for equipment for resource officers, payroll, operational costs and replacing some of the department’s vehicle fleet.The budget is in its early legislative stages and it remains to be seen what comes of the $40 million.Meanwhile, the state will in the coming years begin to receive its first royalty monies, but Mertz said there’s no saying how much that will be.“I have no sense at all of what to anticipate in terms of royalty proceeds,” she said.
How Oxford's drinking water avoided a contamination catastrophe - It was a normal day for Tim McLelland when he got a call that helped avert a potential disaster. McLelland, the groundwater protection manager at Hamilton to New Baltimore groundwater consortium in Southwest Ohio, receives plenty of random phone calls, many of which involve neighborly disputes or exaggerated claims. But this particular call stood out. “When the lady called me and said ‘I got a crude oil pipeline sticking out of my backyard in the creek,’ I didn’t believe it,” McLelland said. “I thought maybe it’s a natural gas line.” When he checked the maps, he realized she was right: an exposed crude oil pipeline ran through Seven Mile Creek, posing a significant risk to the well fields in that area that supply Oxford’s drinking water. McLelland said he knew he needed to investigate the matter. When he visited the site the following day, he was met with a sign that read: “Warning Exposed Crude Oil Pipeline” from Mid Valley Pipeline Company. According to federal regulations from the U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, oil companies are not required to rebury or cover pipelines if they are exposed. Instead, they are only required to monitor the pipelines, assess environmental hazards and post a sign indicating the exposure. “I thought to myself, ‘Man, that’s a crazy rule,’” McLelland said. “[The pipeline] was buried underground, but now it’s sticking up out of the creek. If a boulder comes along and hits that pipe, we’re screwed.” After talking with the woman who noticed the exposed pipeline, McLelland learned she had tried to contact the Ohio EPA and Department of Natural Resources about the situation, but no progress had been made. Knowing he needed to take action, McLelland worked with Andreas Eddy, the water plant manager in Oxford, to notify the Ohio EPA about the situation in May 2023. At the time, two fallen trees were overlying the pipeline, which could’ve been deadly had they breached it. Before writing the letter to the EPA, Eddy contacted Mid Valley and was told that an engineer would assess the situation. He later received a follow-up call from a company representative. “He stated that Mid Valley has extensive records of this particular section of pipeline,” Eddy wrote in the letter to the Ohio EPA. “He told me the pipe is in good condition for its age and that the corrosion rate was normal. He assured me that this situation was low-risk. I kindly disagreed with him.” They soon discovered the Ohio EPA has no regulatory authority over the pipeline industry unless a spill occurs. In that case, they can assist with the cleanup efforts. McLelland researched similar incidents of spills occurring from the same pipeline, including one in 2014, when 20,000 gallons of oil spilled in Colerain Township, contaminating a constructed wetland and nature preserve. The full cleanup effort of the preserve took five years. The specific pipeline crossing Seven Mile Creek is over 74 years old and runs about 420,000 gallons worth of oil per hour. The nearest shutoff valves are 16 miles apart, meaning if the valves were shut off following a spill, a maximum of approximately 1.4 million gallons of oil could be spilled if the pipeline weren’t patched. Knowing the potential for disaster from this pipeline, McLelland sent a letter to the company expressing concern about the pipeline's proximity to drinking water sources and asked for “open and transparent dialogue.” After a month of waiting, he received a call from the company saying, “We appreciated the tone of your letter, we’ll agree to meet with you.” After initial discussions, McLelland convinced Mid Valley to conduct a “spill drill” in the region. In August 2024, over a year after McLelland was notified of the exposed pipeline, the company sent representatives from its headquarters in Longview, Texas, to its office in Hebron, Kentucky, to conduct the drill with its staff and McLelland. On Sept. 5, 2024, McLelland’s birthday, Mid Valley completed their promise to rebury the pipeline crossing Seven Mile Creek by covering it with a Submar mat, a concrete system meant to prevent further erosion and protect the pipeline. “The rules say they don’t have to [cover the exposed pipeline], but they did it anyway [and] spent the money to do it,” McLelland said. “They didn’t have to do a spill drill with us, either. They didn’t have to take our information down and consider it a risk, but they saw it [and] they realized that this was a concern.”
Report Reveals Ohio’s Largest Oil & Gas Counties, Royalty Payers -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The Ohio Natural Energy Institute (ONEi) is a nonprofit organization of professionals who educate people about the essential energy that makes life better, specifically focusing on natural gas and oil production. ONEi provides trusted, factual information through teacher workshops, first responder training, guest speaker programs, and more. The organization used to be called Ohio Oil and Gas Energy Education Program, or OOGEEP (see OOGEEP Renames & Rebrands Itself as Ohio Natural Energy Institute). The organization publishes some great materials, including a brand-new report titled The Essential Facts on Essential Ohio Energy (copy below). This report is loaded with great information.
Wastewater Injection Well in McKean County Fails 2 Integrity Tests -- Marcellus Drilling News - In January 2024, MDN brought you the news that the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) approved a plan by Catalyst Energy to convert an existing conventional gas production well on Route 646 in Cyclone (Keating Township, McKean County, PA) into a shale wastewater injection well (see PA DEP Approves Shale Wastewater Injection Well in McKean County). The DEP approved the plan on Jan. 11, 2024. Residents who live nearby and are opposed appealed the decision to the PA Environmental Hearing Board (EHB), a special court set up to hear appeals of DEP decisions. The EHB issued an opinion on Dec. 27 that allowed the well to move forward (see PA EHB Allows Wastewater Injection Well in McKean County to Open). Catalyst commenced injections on Jan. 22, subject to mechanical integrity and other requirements. However, the well failed DEP mechanical integrity tests….twice. Yet it continues to inject.
36 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 10 – 16 -- Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of Feb 10 – 16, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells soared. Two weeks ago, 24 new permits were issued. Last week, the number increased to 36 new permits issued. The Keystone State (PA) issued the vast majority with 23 new permits last week. Seven permits went to PennEnergy Resources, all on a single pad in Armstrong County. Snyder Brothers received five permits for a single pad, also in Armstrong County (meaning half the PA permits went to Armstrong). Range Resources was third in line with four new permits for a single pad in Washington County. ANTERO RESOURCES | ARMSTRONG COUNTY | CARROLL COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | HARRISON COUNTY | INDIANA COUNTY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | JKLM ENERGY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SENECA RESOURCES | SNYDER BROTHERS | SULLIVAN COUNTY | TIOGA COUNTY (PA) | TYLER COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY | WETZEL COUNTY
Stop Press! Trump Pledges to Revive PA-to-NY Constitution Pipeline -- Marcellus Drilling News - Never in our wildest dreams did we see this one coming. And we must caution against too much hope. However, we are JAZZED. Last Friday, President Trump signed yet another executive order. This EO creates the National Energy Dominance Council, directing the new council to move quickly to increase domestic oil and gas production (see our companion post today for details). During comments with reporters at the EO signing, Trump vowed to complete the long-dead Pennsylvania Marcellus to New York State Constitution Pipeline! Trump’s own words: “We are going to get this done, and once we start construction, we’re looking at anywhere from nine to 12 months.”
Antero Resources plans increased drilling activity in 2025 amid strong production in West Virginia — Antero Resources Corp., the largest driller in West Virginia and a leading operator in the Marcellus and Utica shale formations, released its fourth-quarter 2024 financial and operational results recently, announcing plans to ramp up drilling activity in 2025 following stable production and cost reductions. Antero reported net income of $150 million for the quarter, with adjusted net income totaling $181 million. The company achieved a 27% reduction in drilling and completion capital expenditures compared to the prior year, underscoring its commitment to cost efficiency.
Antero to Drill 50-55 New Wells, Spend $100M on New Leases in 2025 --- Marcellus Drilling News -- Antero Resources, which is 100% focused on the Marcellus/Utica with over 500,000 net acres under lease (and the largest M-U driller in West Virginia), issued its fourth quarter 2024 update last week. The company reports net production in 4Q24 averaged 3.43 Bcfe/d, up ever-so-slightly from 3.42 Bcfe/d in 4Q23. Natural gas production averaged 2.1 Bcf/d, a 7% decrease from the same period in 2023. Liquids (NGL) production averaged 217 MBbl/d, a 14% increase from the year-ago period. A little less gas, a little more liquids. Antero achieved a net income of $150 million and adjusted net income of $181 million. Additionally, the company realized a 27% reduction in drilling and completion capital expenditures compared to the prior year.
West Virginia sees surge in new shale drilling permits, with more planned with Antero's expansion -Shale industry officials are reporting a surge in the number of permits issued to drill new shale wells in the Marcellus and Utica, with a total of 36 new permits granted—up from 24 just two weeks prior.West Virginia issued eight new permits last week, reinforcing the state’s role as a key hub for natural gas development. Seven of those permits went to EQT for a single pad in Wetzel County, while Antero Resources received one permit in Tyler County, according to Marcellus Drilling News.
EQT Working on Deals with Data Centers; MVP & Southgate Key Assets --- Marcellus Drilling News -- EQT Corporation, the nation’s second-largest natural gas producer after Expand Energy, delivered its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 update yesterday. The company, which drills solely in the Marcellus/Utica, produced 605 Bcfe of natural gas and equivalents during 4Q, which works out to be 6.58 Bcfe/d, despite curtailing 27 Bcfe (or 0.29 Bcfe/d, the same as 290 MMcf/d). Aside from the stats of what happened in 4Q24 and for the full year, much of the chatter in the update was about what is coming in 2025. EQT’s top brass said it is deep in discussions with multiple data centers and will likely have a few signed deals to provide gas to data center power plants by the end of 2025.’
MVP at Full Throttle, Strong Southeast Demand Help Lift Natural Gas Prices for EQT - EQT Corp. is not looking to invest in natural gas production growth in 2025 as it expects demand to eventually outpace supply and push prices higher in the coming years. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot XXXX daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility. CFO Jeremy Knop said the company is completely unhedged in 2026 and beyond amid an “increasingly bullish set up” for prices. Underinvestment and scarce inventory depth in the Haynesville Shale, along with infrastructure constraints in Appalachia and no new pipeline capacity coming online in the Permian Basin until later next year, are likely to lift prices, EQT’s management team said Wednesday.
Virginia Legislators Pushing to Use Taxpayer Funds for Natural Gas Projects - Lawmakers from both parties are seeking to use state tax dollars to boost new natural gas infrastructure projects related to data centers and chicken processing plants, as a proposed spending plan is nearing completion before going to the governor for review. House Appropriations Chair Del. Luke Torian (D-Prince William) is including in the House budget proposal $15 million to provide “road extension, grading, and natural gas pipeline extension” for business site readiness improvements for a natural gas power plant and potential data center in Pulaski County, in rural Southwest Virginia. Del. Rob Bloxom (R-Accomack) is seeking up to $7.4 million in the House proposal for Chesapeake Utilities to extend natural gas from Maryland into Accomack County, Virginia, on the Eastern Shore to serve chicken processing plants owned by Perdue Chicken and Tyson Foods, as well as NASA’s Wallops Island facility, among other potential users. “These counties, what they’re telling us, is that they need money in order to put in the infrastructure for future economic growth, whether for the data center or some other industry that will come in,” said Torian. “Pulaski is perhaps not the only county that is in need of resources for infrastructure development, whether it be some level of energy design. They all need it.” Details of the proposal for Pulaski County are sparse. According to information included in the House proposal, the county would enter into memos of understanding with the state’s Department of Housing and Community Development to require “a dollar for dollar match of non-state resources for these site readiness improvements.” In Pulaski County, the state funding would also “help secure up to $3.0 billion in capital investment in the region through the construction of a data center and powerplant in the County,” the budget proposal says. In an interview, Torian said county officials “need money for infrastructure, so they can do economic development.” Dels. Jason Ballard and Jonathan Arnold, Republicans who represent the locality, said they didn’t have any details about the project. “Generally speaking, any time when we get money coming into [the county] that’s a good thing, but I just don’t know what it’s for,” Ballard said. The proposal comes as the state is wrestling with the high energy needs of, and the frequent community opposition to, data center development. Virginia’s non-partisan legislative research arm, called the Joint Legislative and Audit Review Commission, found that about 70 percent of the world’s internet traffic moves through Virginia data centers, which house large numbers of computer processors. Northern Virginia, birthplace of the internet, is home to the world’s largest concentration of data centers—largely because of access to fiber internet cables and a tax break.
TVA Green Lights New 500 MW Natural Gas Power Plant in Mississippi -Marcellus Drilling News - The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is a federally-owned electric utility corporation in the U.S. TVA’s service area covers all of Tennessee, portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky, and small areas of Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia. TVA is the sixth-largest power supplier and the largest public utility in the U.S. In 2021, MDN told you that TVA is spending over $1 billion to replace six coal-fired plants with natgas-fired turbines (see TVA Investing $1B to Build New Natgas-Fired Electric Plants). As part of the overall plan, in 2023, TVA proposed to build a new gas-fired plant at the site of a former privately operated power plant in Mississippi (see TVA Proposes New 500 MW Natural Gas Power Plant in Mississippi). Last Friday, TVA pulled the trigger and made a final investment decision to move forward with the project. Read More
DOE gives Louisiana LNG project conditional export approval - The Department of Energy issued a conditional approval for exports from a major liquefied natural gas export facility planned along the Louisiana coast — the first such green light since President Donald Trump took office last month. In a 67-page order Friday, the department said exports from the Commonwealth LNG project to countries that lack a free trade agreement with the U.S. “are likely to yield economic benefits to the United States, diversify global LNG supplies, and improve energy security for U.S. allies and trading partners.” DOE said its authorization of Commonwealth LNG is not likely to negatively affect the availability of natural gas to U.S. consumers or “result in natural gas price increases” and heightened price volatility, though federal analysts have projected a rise in gas prices. The conditional export permit comes as Trump has pledged to expand energy production, outlining in an executive order Friday his policy to “make America energy dominant.”“Today marks one of many steps that DOE will be taking to assure our future as a reliable energy supplier to the world and resume regular order to our regulatory responsibilities over natural gas exports,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement.
Trump Grants First LNG Export License, Forms US Oil and Gas Energy Council - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration said on Friday it has granted a liquefied natural gas export license to the Commonwealth LNG project in Louisiana, the first approval of LNG exports after former President Joe Biden paused them early last year. The exports are approved to go to markets in Asia and Europe. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, whose agency is responsible for approving the shipments, said exporting U.S. LNG "strengthens the U.S. economy and supports American jobs while bolstering energy security around the world." The U.S. is trying to increase its LNG exports to help reduce Europe's dependency on Russian gas after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine three years ago. Trump ordered a lifting of the freeze on LNG export approvals the day he came into office for a second time on January 20. Commonwealth LNG, which has waited longer than any other company for its permit, wants to build a 9.5 million metric ton per annum export plant in Louisiana to sell to countries that do not have a free trade agreement with the U.S. "Today's actions demonstrate that President Trump is prioritizing the American energy industry and we are both pleased and grateful to have achieved these important regulatory objectives," said Commonwealth CEO Farhad Ahrabi. The company is expecting to make a final investment decision in September 2025 as a result of the license and subject to regulatory approval. Commonwealth expects first LNG production from the project in early 2029. Two other LNG companies, Cheniere LNG.N and Energy Transfer, have said they plan to move full speed ahead with their plans to export the fuel. U.S. LNG exports are expected to double before the end of the decade, based on approvals that had been granted before Biden's pause. That has raised environmentalists' worries about the LNG boom's potential to boost carbon emissions, while some manufacturers and fuel-dependent industries are concerned it might spike domestic gas prices. Trump also signed an executive order in the Oval Office on Friday creating a new energy council to be led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, which will seek to expand U.S. output of oil and gas. The U.S. is already the world's largest producer of those fossil fuels. The President commented on how he plans to boost drilling and said more than 600 million acres of offshore federal waters are now open to oil and gas development, after Biden had taken them off the table. Trump said he was working on getting approval for the Constitution natural gas pipeline that would bring gas from Pennsylvania's drilling fields to New York, in order to bring down energy prices in the region. Williams Cos canceled the pipeline in 2020 following opposition from politicians and environmentalists in New York, and it is uncertain how it could be approved.
Commonwealth LNG Granted Long-Awaited – but Conditional – Permit to Transport 9.5 Mt/y Worldwide -Commonwealth LNG received a number of well-timed Valentine’s greetings from U.S. regulatory agencies Friday, pushing the blocked Gulf Coast export project closer to full authorization. Marking the first export permit granted under Energy Secretary Chris Wright, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) granted non-free trade agreement (NFTA) export authorization to Commonwealth for up to 9.5 million tons/year (Mt/y) through 2050. After waiting five years for authorization, Kimmeridge Texas Gas LLC’s proposed Louisiana export project is now approved to ship cargoes to countries worldwide. NFTA permits are usually considered essential for large-scale LNG projects to receive financial backing, as most of the leading natural gas importers in the world are NFTA countries.
Commonwealth LNG Set to Make FID After Trump DOE, FERC Approvals --- Marcellus Drilling News -- On Friday, Commonwealth LNG achieved two significant milestones on the way to making a final investment decision (FID). The first was that the Department of Energy (DOE) issued a long-delayed (because of Biden) approval to export LNG to non-free trade agreement (FTA) countries. The second is that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued a Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS). Kimmeridge Energy Management, the main investor behind the project, said these two important items pave the way for an FID in September of this year. Provided that happens, the first LNG production at the plant is expected to flow in the first quarter of 2029.
US approves LNG exports, forms energy council to boost oil and gas - President Trump has resumed LNG export approvals, which had been paused under former president Biden. The US Government has granted an LNG export licence to the Commonwealth LNG project in Louisiana, marking the first such approval since the pause on LNG exports announced by the previous administration. The global energy market, particularly the Asia and Europe markets, stand to benefit from the decision. Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasised the move's benefits, noting that exporting US LNG will strengthen the US economy, support US jobs and enhance global energy security. The approval comes as the US seeks to increase exports to Europe to help the region reduce its reliance on Russian gas following the conflict in Ukraine. Commonwealth LNG plans to construct a 9.5 million tpa export plant in Louisiana. The company expects to make a final investment decision by September 2025, pending regulatory approval, with the first LNG production expected in early 2029. Commonwealth CEO Farhad Ahrabi said: “Today’s actions demonstrate that President Trump is prioritising the American energy industry, and we are both pleased and grateful to have achieved these important regulatory objectives.” Other LNG companies including Cheniere and Energy Transfer are also moving forward with their export plans. US LNG exports are projected to double by the end of the decade based on previously granted approvals. However, environmentalists have expressed concerns about the potential increase in carbon emissions due to the LNG boom, while some manufacturers fear a rise in domestic gas prices. Additionally, President Trump has established a new energy council led by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to expand US oil and gas output. Trump also commented on his strategy to enhance drilling, revealing that more than 600 million acres of offshore federal waters are now available for oil and gas development. He is also seeking approval for the Constitution natural gas pipeline, which would transport gas from Pennsylvania to New York, aiming to lower energy prices in the region. However, the pipeline's future remains uncertain following its cancellation in 2020 due to opposition.
Cracking the Case: How Experts Are Measuring LNG Project Litigation Risks — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow -- Click here to join NGI senior LNG editor Jacob Dick and Arbo’s Tom Sharp, director of permitting intelligence, in a discussion about why despite some recent momentum under the Trump administration, litigation risk still looms for some U.S. LNG projects. After a year of regulatory slowdowns for LNG projects, 2025 has been full of agency shake-ups, policy changes and executive orders. But what does it mean for project development and future U.S. natural gas demand? With feed gas demand forecasts and major project financing hurdles on the line, what is going on in federal courts and on energy agency dockets is getting more attention than ever. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI, which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing locations across North America, works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort.
Expansion of Corpus Christi LNG in Texas Starts Delivery -- Cheniere Energy Inc. has produced the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo from a project expanding the Corpus Christi LNG (CCL) terminal in the namesake Texan city. CCL Stage 3 has seven midscale trains with an expected production capacity of over 10 million metric tons per annum (MMtpa), raising CCL’s output capacity to over 25 MMtpa from 10 trains. “First LNG production from the first train of the CCL Stage 3 Project was achieved in December 2024, and the first cargo of LNG was produced in February 2025”, Houston, Texas-based Cheniere said in its quarterly report. It plans to build two more mid-scale trains adjacent to the Stage 3 project for a further capacity addition of about 3 MMtpa. “In June 2024, we received a positive Environmental Assessment from the FERC and anticipate receiving all remaining necessary regulatory approvals for the project in 2025”, the report said. Citing new capacity unlocked from the expansion, Cheniere expects to surpass last year’s earnings. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 is $6.5 billion-$7 billion, compared to the actual 2024 figure of $6.2 billion. Distributable cash flow this year is expected to be $4.1 billion-$4.6 billion, compared to the actual 2024 figure of $3.7 billion. “We expect 2025 to be another record year for LNG production as Stage 3 trains are completed, and we look forward to delivering financial results within these ranges and further enhancing the long-term value proposition of Cheniere”, commented president and chief executive Jack Fusco. Last year Cheniere exported a record 646 LNG cargoes, or 2.33 trillion British thermal units. Cheniere posted $977 million in net profit for the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2024 and $3.25 billion for the full year. The figures were down 29 percent and 67 percent by year-ago comparisons, respectively. On a diluted basis, Q4 earnings per share landed at $4.33, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.69 per share. “The decreases were primarily attributable to approximately $599 million and $6.7 billion of unfavorable variances related to changes in fair value of our derivative instruments (before tax and non-controlling interests) for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2024, respectively, as compared to the corresponding 2023 periods”, Cheniere said. “The decreases were partially offset by lower provisions for income tax, as well as lower net income attributable to non-controlling interests during both periods”. Consolidated adjusted EBITDA dropped year-on-year by about $73 million for Q4 and $2.6 billion for 2024. “The decreases were primarily due to the moderation of international gas prices, resulting in lower total margins per MMBtu [million British thermal units] of LNG delivered, as well as a higher proportion of our LNG being sold under long-term contracts during both 2024 periods as compared to the corresponding 2023 periods”. Revenue totaled $4.44 billion for Q4, down eight percent year-over-year, and $15.7 billion for 2024, down 23 percent against 2023. Cheniere declared a dividend of $0.5 per share for Q4, maintaining the previous rate. It ended the year with $2.64 billion in cash and cash equivalents, plus $552 million in restricted cash and cash equivalents. Current assets totaled $4.8 billion. Cheniere owed $4.44 billion in current liabilities as of year-end, including $351 million in current debt.
Cheniere Focuses Future LNG Expansions as Corpus Christi LNG Continues to Add U.S. Natural Gas Demand --Cheniere Energy Inc. expects to ride the “tailwinds” of a new administration and robust global LNG demand in 2025 as its Corpus Christi export project adds fresh natural gas demand to the domestic market, according to management. Aerial image of Corpus Christi LNG. Expand Houston-based Cheniere is continuing to hone in on growth and the next phases of its massive U.S. LNG platforms even as its Stage 3 expansion in South Texas ramps up. The first train of seven started production ahead of schedule at the end of last year, and has continued to ramp up through the first months of 2025. CEO Jack Fusco said the first cargo was produced from Train 1 earlier in the month and commissioning of the second train has already begun.
U.S. Feed Gas Deliveries to Export Terminals Continue Record Run — Federal regulators have approved Venture Global LNG Inc.’s Plaquemines export facility to produce more of the super-chilled fuel. (Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence.) The authorization allows the terminal, which is under construction in Louisiana, to produce up to 27.2 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG, or about 3.6 Bcf/d at peak capacity. The facility was designed to produce 20 Mt/y and previously was authorized for peak capacity of 24 Mt/y. Venture is not expanding the plant to achieve the production increase. Instead, it plans to rely on train efficiencies to boost output.
US NatGas Prices Jump 8% to 3-Week High as Cold Freezes Wells - (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 8% on Tuesday to a three-week high, as extreme cold in some parts of the country cut output by freezing oil and gas wells, while gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants reached records and forecasters predicted more cold weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 28.2 cents, or 7.6%, to settle at $4.007 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since January 24 for a second day in a row. That was the biggest daily percentage increase since Feb. 3 when prices soared by about 10%. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. With the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 3.5 bcfd over the last 12 days to a preliminary three-week low of 103.2 bcfd on Monday. That compares with a daily record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6. Analysts noted that preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly colder than normal through February 22 before switching to near normal levels from February 23-March 5. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 146.4 bcfd this week to 129.9 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.4 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.0 bcfd on Monday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 15.8 bcfd on January 18. That LNG daily feedgas record came as flows to Venture Global’s 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a fresh high of 1.4 bcfd on Sunday. Gas was trading at around $15 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 7% to 25-Month High as Freeze Cuts Output (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to a 25-month high on Wednesday as extreme cold in some parts of the country boosted demand for the fuel for heating and cut output by freezing oil and gas wells. Traders said prices also gained support on record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 27.3 cents, or 6.8%, to settle at $4.280 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since December 2022. That put the contract up for a seventh day in a row for the first time since July 2021 and kept it in technically overbought territory for a second straight day for the first time since November 2024. With gas futures up 29% over the past seven days, stock prices of several of the biggest U.S. gas producers soared. Recent increases in gas prices coupled with a decline in oil futures cut the oil-to-gas ratio, or the level at which oil trades compared with gas, to 17 to 1, the lowest since December 2022. On an energy equivalent basis, oil should only trade six times over gas. So far in 2025, crude prices have averaged about 20 times over gas. That compares with 33 times over gas in 2024 and 21 times over gas during the prior five years (2019-2023). Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 105.0 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in February, up from 102.7 Bcf/d in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 Bcf/d in December 2023. But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 6.7 Bcf/d over the last 13 days to a preliminary four-week low of 100.1 Bcf/d on Wednesday. That compares with a daily record of 106.7 Bcf/d on February 6. Analysts noted preliminary data is often revised later in the day. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.4 Bcf/d so far in February, up from 14.6 Bcf/d in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.2 Bcf/d on Tuesday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 16.0 Bcf/d on Monday. The LNG daily feedgas record came as flows to Venture Global's 2.6-Bcf/d Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to hit a fresh high of 1.6 Bcf/d on Wednesday. In other LNG news, LSEG noted flows to Cameron LNG's 2.0-Bcf/d export plant in Louisiana were on track to drop to a preliminary two-month low of 1.6 Bcf/d on Wednesday, down from 2.4 Bcf/d on Tuesday and an average of 2.3 Bcf/d over the prior seven days. Traders noted there were storms in Louisiana overnight but did not know of any possible impact from the storms on the plant.
Mother Nature’s Having Her Fun with Natural Gas Traders, Prices Intelligence on natural gas market fundamentals presented by NGI’s data and price analysts After back-to-back warm winters, a frigid January and the arctic blast penetrating deep into the United States have sent natural gas prices skyrocketing to levels not seen in years. Natural gas futures soared close to $4.40/MMBtu on Wednesday, lending support to prices 13 months out the curve. The December 2025 and January 2026 contracts crossed the $5.00 mark.
US natgas prices slide 3% on less cold forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 3% on Thursday from a 25-month high in the prior session on forecasts for less cold and lower heating demand next week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.8 cents, or 3.0%, to settle at $4.152 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its highest since December 2022. Prices dropped on Thursday despite a federal report showing utilities pulled a little more gas out of storage than expected to heat homes and businesses during frigid weather last week. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 196 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 14. That was slightly bigger than the 188-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a drop of 58 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 145 bcf for this time of year. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. But with the return of extreme cold that is again freezing wells in some parts of the country, daily output was on track to drop by around 6.7 bcfd since hitting a record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a preliminary four-week low of 100.0 bcfd on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.4 bcfd on Wednesday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 16.2 bcfd on Tuesday. The LNG daily feedgas record came as flows to Venture Global's 2.6-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to hit record highs of 1.6 bcfd on Wednesday and Thursday.
US natgas prices climbs up 2% on frozen wells, record LNG flows - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 2% on Friday as extreme cold over the past couple of weeks cut output by freezing wells and as gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants hit record highs. In addition, traders noted that colder-than-normal weather so far this year forced utilities to pull huge amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles down to about 11% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 8.2 cents, or 2.0%, to settle at $4.234 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That kept the contract in technically overbought territory for a fourth day in a row for the first time since October 2024. The front-month closed at a 25-month high of $4.280 per mmBtu on February 19. For the week, the contract was up about 14%, rising for a third week in a row for the first time since November and gaining around 39% during that time. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly near normal through March 8. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 148.4 bcfd this week to 127.9 bcfd next week and 122.9 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were higher than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.5 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a record 16.5 bcfd on Thursday, topping the prior all-time daily high of 16.4 bcfd on Wednesday. The LNG daily feedgas record occurred as flows to Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana were on track to hit record highs of 1.6 bcfd from Wednesday to Friday. Gas was trading at around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia. Despite efforts by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the war in Ukraine, which some analysts say could free up some Russian energy exports, the European Union said it will seek more gas from countries including the U.S. to replace Russian supplies, and expand renewable energy faster to cut its overall reliance on the fuel. The EU has pledged to quit Russian fossil fuels by 2027 in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
Natural Gas is Still a Dirty Word, But It’s Here to Stay: WoodMac -- Natural gas will play a critical role in the global energy transition, serving as a bridge fuel between coal and renewables, according to a new report from Wood Mackenzie. Despite concerns over emissions and affordability, gas is expected to remain a key part of the energy mix for decades, particularly in power generation, industrial processes, and transport. According to WoodMac, natural gas demand has surged 80% over the last 25 years, now accounting for nearly a quarter of global energy consumption. While electrification and renewables are expanding, they alone won’t be enough to meet rising global energy demand, especially in Asia and Europe. Gas provides flexibility, reliability, and a lower-carbon alternative to coal, which still powers 30% of the world’s energy needs. In Southeast Asia, countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines are expected to add up to 180 GW of new gas-fired power by 2050 to support economic growth. In China and India, natural gas demand is projected to rise 95 bcm by 2050, offering a practical path to reducing coal dependency. However, high LNG prices remain a key barrier to further adoption. Without a carbon price of $100/tonne, coal could remain the more attractive option for many Asian markets. Beyond power generation, natural gas is also enabling low-carbon technologies, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) and blue hydrogen. While green hydrogen remains too expensive for large-scale deployment, blue hydrogen—produced from natural gas with CCS—will help drive early adoption. WoodMac forecasts 40 Mt of blue hydrogen capacity by 2050. However, the report warns that gas is still a “dirty” word in climate discussions due to methane emissions and its fossil fuel status. Addressing LNG supply chain emissions and scaling up low-carbon alternatives like biomethane and e-methane will be critical to securing its long-term role. WoodMac argues that governments must balance net-zero goals with energy security, ensuring that gas remains a viable option if renewables and emerging technologies fail to scale fast enough. With the next wave of LNG supply expected in 2026, market dynamics could shift, making gas more affordable and reinforcing its position as an essential transition fuel.
Green groups sue over Trump moves to expand offshore drilling - Conservation groups filed two legal challenges Wednesday to the Trump administration’s moves to shrink areas protected from offshore oil and gas development. In the first lawsuit, a coalition of local and national groups including the Center for Biological Diversity, Greenpeace, the Sierra Club and the Northern Alaska Environmental Center sued over Trump’s attempt to rescind Biden-era protections of 265 million acres of federal waters. Trump signed an order withdrawing the protections within his first hours in office. In his first term, Trump took similar action against Obama-era protections, but a federal judge ruled that the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act only authorizes presidents to block drilling in the affected areas rather than revoke previous presidents’ protections. A second lawsuit seeks to restore protections against drilling in the Arctic, filed by many of the same groups, with Earthjustice and the Natural Resources Defense Council representing them. The complaint specifically seeks to reinstate a 2021 decision affirming protections from nearly 130 million acres in the Arctic and Atlantic. “We defeated Trump the first time he tried to roll back protections and sacrifice more of our waters to the oil industry. We’re bringing this abuse of the law to the courts again,” Earthjustice managing attorney for oceans Steve Mashuda said in a statement. “Trump is illegally trying to take away protections vital to coastal communities that rely on clean, healthy oceans for safe living conditions, thriving economies, and stable ecosystems.” Trump pledged on the campaign trail to implement a “drill baby drill” energy policy and has spent his first weeks in office prioritizing new fossil fuel development and rolling back both Biden-era environmental protections and incentives for the renewable energy industry. His interior secretary, Doug Burgum, has acknowledged the threat of climate change but has expressed confidence that it can coexist with new oil and gas development through largely unproven carbon capture technology.
Trump admin approves massive Texas deepwater oil project -- The Trump administration granted a deepwater port license for a major oil export terminal off Texas’ coast, bolstering its push to send U.S. energy overseas.The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration (MARAD) issued a record of decision last week to Dallas-based Sentinel Midstream, giving it the green light to build a terminal about 30 miles offshore of Freeport, Texas. The Texas GulfLink project, if completed, could fill tankers with as much as 2 million barrels of crude oil a day.“This permitting milestone is a testament to the hard work, perseverance, and expertise of the Sentinel team,” Jeff Ballard, Sentinel’s CEO, said in a statement, adding that “Texas GulfLink is now well positioned to capitalize on strong market interest and advance as the premier offshore crude oil export facility in the United States.” Sentinel officials did not respond Tuesday to questions about how much the project will cost, when it could come online and what other permits it needs in order to begin construction.
Saudi Arabia’s Texas Refinery Just Made a Power Move – While some U.S. refiners are scaling back, Saudi Arabia’s Motiva Enterprises just made a power move. The Saudi Aramco-owned refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, has quietly expanded its capacity, now processing a record 654,000 barrels per day—officially making it the largest refinery in the United States above Exxon’s Beaumont and Marathon’s Galveston Bay. Motiva pulled this off without a flashy billion-dollar project—just good old-fashioned optimization, removing bottlenecks in the system to squeeze out more production. And they did it at a time when smaller, less efficient refineries are dropping like flies. LyondellBasell’s Houston plant is closing. Phillips 66’s Los Angeles refinery is shutting down. Unlike its smaller refining peers, Port Arthur is doubling down, proving that size absolutely matters in refining. Motiva’s expansion fits into a bigger industry shift, where mega-refineries are getting even bigger while smaller plants either shut down or pivot to biofuels. The rationale? If you can’t be nimble, be massive. And while U.S. refiners whine about demand uncertainties and ESG pressures, Aramco isn’t here to play defense—it’s here to dominate. The real question now is whether Motiva will finally pull the trigger on its long-rumored petrochemical expansion. Back in 2021, Aramco was considering pouring $6.6 billion into turning Port Arthur into a full-fledged petrochem hub—a move that would’ve put the plant even further ahead of its competition. That plan seemed to fizzle out, but given this latest expansion, it might just be back on the table. Motiva, of course, isn’t saying much—declining to comment so far when asked by media. But with oil demand holding strong, shuttered competition, and its parent company sitting on a cash pile the size of some national economies, it’s hard to imagine Port Arthur isn’t gearing up for more.
Permian Basin pipeline ruptures after M5.0 earthquake hits Texas - A natural gas pipeline in the Permian Basin, Texas, ruptured following an M5.0 earthquake near Toyah in Reeves County at 05:23 UTC on February 15, 2025 (22:53 LT, February 14), resulting in a fire. Emergency response teams were deployed to the site, and the fire was fully extinguished by the morning of February 15. The Permian Basin is a large sedimentary basin in the southwestern United States, primarily located in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. It is one of the most prolific oil and natural gas-producing regions in the world. The rupture marks the second pipeline failure in the county within eight months and the third in 19 months, renewing concerns over the link between fracking activities and seismic events in the region. The last pipeline failure in Reeves County occurred on July 15, 2024, when a 61 cm (24 inches) natural gas pipeline ruptured approximately 275 m (300 yards) into the county. The epicenter of the February 15 earthquake was located 53 km (33 miles) west of Toyah, 85 km (53 miles) south of Carlsbad, and 133 km (83 miles) south of Artesia. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), approximately 352 000 people experienced light shaking, while 592 000 felt weak tremors. At least 16 aftershocks followed the main event over the next five hours, with magnitudes ranging from 1.4 to 3.8 and depths between 3.4 km and 7.1 km (4.4 to 7.1 miles). Seismic activity in Texas has been increasing over the past two decades, particularly in regions with extensive oil and gas operations. One of the primary factors contributing to this trend in the Permian Basin is wastewater injection, a byproduct of hydraulic fracturing. Unlike fracking, which involves short bursts of fluid injection to extract hydrocarbons, wastewater disposal is a continuous process that raises underground pressure over time, potentially reducing friction along pre-existing faults and triggering earthquakes. Studies by the USGS and Texas Seismological Network (TexNet) have established a strong correlation between wastewater disposal and seismic events. In response, the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), which oversees oil and gas operations, implemented restrictions in early 2023, halting deep-water reinjection in northern Culberson and Reeves counties, among the most seismically active areas in the Permian Basin. The RRC continues to monitor seismic activity and has tightened oversight of wastewater injection wells. Industry representatives have acknowledged the seismic risks associated with wastewater injection but argue that regulatory measures should balance safety with economic viability. The Permian Basin remains the largest oil- and gas-producing region in the U.S., and any restrictions on drilling and disposal activities could have big economic implications.
Trump’s oil ambitions face harsh economic and geologic realities - President Donald Trump wants to “unleash” American energy. The problem: U.S. oil production growth is starting to dwindle.The nation’s once-hot shale plays are maturing. It’s getting more expensive to get significant amounts of new oil out of the ground. Some observers expect production to level off in the coming years and then start to decline by the early 2030s.Soon enough, oil companies may need to “drill, baby, drill” just to keep up current production levels rather than boosting them. Trump is calling for “energy dominance,” yet for many in the oil patch the debate is not whether U.S. oil production is hitting its peak, but when and how fast. “We’re 17, 18 years into the U.S. shale story,” said Brandon Myers, head of research at Novi Labs, an Austin, Texas-based research firm that uses artificial intelligence to analyze the economics of wells. “It does have an end.”Right now, the U.S. oil industry is producing more crude than ever before — north of 13 million barrels a day — and the price of gasoline is slightly higher than $3 a gallon, hoveringnear a three-year low. So it may be hard to realize the type of production increases Trump suggested on the campaign trail, where he boasted that within 18 months he’d cut energy prices in half.“That presumes that you can press a button and get even more out of those rocks than ever for an extended period of time,” said Barry Rabe, a professor emeritus of environmental policy at the University of Michigan. Pulling that off, he said, is “sort of a triple bank shot.”When asked whether declining shale fields could interfere with Trump’s “energy dominance” plans, a White House spokesperson sent a statement saying “President Trump took decisive action on day one to immediately reverse the shortsighted policies of the previous administration and unleash American energy.”Nationally, oil production might creep up in the next couple of years, driven by drilling in West Texas and eastern New Mexico. But other once-booming plays in places like Colorado, South Texas and North Dakota are flat or declining.Barring a big technological revolution in drilling — some suggest leaps in AI might deliver one — the United States’ position as an oil powerhouse could be challenged in the years ahead. Some analysts say it will be 10 years or more before production starts to plateau. Others say it has already started. For its part, the U.S. Energy Information Administration predicted last week that the country’s oil production will grow a little more than 3 percent in 2025 to 13.7 million barrels a day, but then climb less than 1 percent in 2026. The report reversed a previous forecast that production would drop slightly in 2026. EIA’s outlook last week also suggested that Trump’s price-cutting goal might be tough to achieve. The agency projected oil prices dropping by 2026 because of reduced demand and increased foreign production, but by only about 20 percent, compared to 2024. EIA projected natural gas prices could nearly double in the same time frame.
Drill Baby Drill Is Dead, Oil Executives Say - Despite Trump’s full-throttle push to “unleash” U.S. energy, Permian oil producers are keeping their foot on the brakes. At a Houston conference this week, energy executives made it clear that while production is still growing, the breakneck pace of the past decade is history. In 2025, Permian output is expected to rise by about 250,000 to 300,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from last year’s 380,000-bpd increase. That’s a 25% slowdown, and it’s not just because of market conditions—it’s intentional. On Thursday, Chevron’s Barbara Harrison summed up the mood to Reuters: “We still expect to see growth in the Permian, but we expect to see that moderated.” In other words, U.S. shale is no longer in “drill, baby, drill” mode. Instead of chasing volume, companies are focused on keeping costs in check and delivering returns to investors—a stark contrast to the reckless production boom of the 2010s. Even though the U.S. remains the world’s top oil producer at 13.2 million bpd, capital discipline is the new mantra. Coterra Energy’s Shannon Flowers spoke of the irony: “The Trump administration wants lower energy prices. That’s not necessarily good for producers.” Refiners like Delek are bracing for potential supply constraints as these producers hold back. And with Trump’s tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports looming, there’s even more uncertainty in the mix. Bottom line: The days of unbridled U.S. shale expansion are over, oil executives say. The industry is moving cautiously, balancing supply growth with financial discipline. Trump may want a flood of new production, but Wall Street wants profits. Right now, Wall Street is winning.
Kinder Morgan closes on US$640 million acquisition of a natural gas gathering and processing system from Outrigger Energy II - Kinder Morgan, Inc. has announced that its subsidiary, Hiland Partners Holdings LLC, closed on its previously announced US$640 million acquisition of a natural gas gathering and processing system in North Dakota from Outrigger Energy II LLC. The acquisition includes a 270 million ft3/d processing facility and a 104 mile, large-diameter, high-pressure rich gas gathering header pipeline with 350 million ft3/d of capacity connecting supplies from the Williston Basin area to high-demand markets. The gathering and processing system is backed by long-term contracts with commitments from major customers in the basin. “We are pleased to have completed this strategic acquisition and to start integrating these assets with our existing Hiland gas footprint,” said KMI Natural Gas Midstream President Tom Dender. “This acquisition expands our transportation and processing services, allowing us to meet the growing needs of our customers.” KMI expects the acquisition to be immediately accretive to its shareholders, with a 2025 Adjusted EBITDA multiple of approximately 8 times on a full-year basis. Adjusted EBITDA does not include approximately US$20 million of expected cash payments in 2025 that receive deferred revenue recognition. With this transaction, KMI expects to reduce future capital expenditures needed to accommodate the growth of its existing Bakken customers.
Pemex Reports Illegal Boarding -- In a statement posted on its website this week, which was translated from the original Spanish, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported that, on February 13, “a group of approximately eight individuals not affiliated with the public company illegally boarded the Zaap-D satellite platform of the Ku Maloob Zaap Production Asset”. Pemex revealed in the statement that the individuals “stole radio devices, as well as various tools and self-contained breathing equipment”. “For this reason, Pemex physical security personnel in Ciudad del Carmen coordinated support with personnel from the Navy (Semar) in order to activate the General Protocol for Attention to Events in the Marine and Coastal Facilities of Pemex Exploration and Production,” the company said in the statement. “It should be noted that the staff of this public company did not suffer any physical harm; only two Pemex workers were evacuated from the platform, due to a possible stress scenario resulting from the incident, so they were transferred to the Pemex General Hospital in Ciudad del Carmen, for their corresponding medical evaluation,” Pemex added. Pemex said in the statement that it reinforced security measures in the Campeche “with a greater number of physical security agents and also coordinated with the Semar to increase the number of patrols with vessels”. In its latest maritime security threat advisory (MSTA), which was released on February 17, Dryad Global said “piracy in the Gulf of America/Mexico, particularly around the Bay of Campeche, has been on the rise, with oil platforms and vessels becoming prime targets”. Dryad noted in its MSTA that the Mexican Navy has deployed numerous naval vessels, aircraft, and personnel in Operation Refuerzo to combat threats. “They recently have shifted their security strategy from relying on vessels to incorporating more drones for improved coverage and response times across the Gulf,” Dryad added. “Despite these efforts, the military’s response has been criticized for delays, which could be attributed to budget constraints and logistical challenges,” Dryad went on to state. Dryad’s latest MSTA gives Mexico a “substantial” risk and impact rating. That sits in the middle of Dryad’s risk and impact rating system, which goes from low, to moderate, to substantial, to severe, to critical, the company’s MSTA shows. Rigzone has contacted Mexico’s Secretaria de Marina and Secretaria de la Relaciones Exteriores for comment on Pemex’s statement and Dryad’s MSTA. At the time of writing, neither have responded to Rigzone’s request. Pemex states on its site that it is “the most important company in Mexico and one of the largest in Latin America”. The business notes on its site that it carries out “extensive exploration and extraction projects every year”. The company has six refineries, six petrochemical complexes, and nine gas processing complexes, according to its site. Dryad Global notes on its site that it offers a comprehensive suite of maritime intelligence and cyber solutions. The site highlights that the company is impartial and that its CEO, Corey Ranslem, has 27 years of experience in the public and private sector working with ports, cargo lines, cruise lines, and large yachts. Ranslem is a veteran of the U.S. Coast Guard and is a recognized expert in U.S. Federal Court in maritime security, the site states.
Trump puts the spotlight anew on a major Alaska gas project. Will it make a difference? (AP) — Since his election, President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed support for a major natural gas pipeline in Alaska — comments that have drawn fresh attention to a project that's floundered for years despite support from state leaders.Trump mentioned the pipeline at a news conference with Japan’s prime minister earlier this month, drawing praise from Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy and U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan, both Republicans. As proposed, the nearly 810-mile (1,300-kilometer) pipeline would funnel gas from Alaska’s vast North Slope to port, with an eye largely on exports to Asian countries.Critics, however, see this as a repackaged version of a decades-old effort that has struggled to gain traction. Hurdles include the cost — an estimated $44 billion for the pipeline and related infrastructure — competition from other projects and questions about its economic feasibility. One state senator said Alaska has put around $1 billion over the years into trying to get a pipeline built. The Alaska project calls for a pipeline from the gas fields of the North Slope to south-central Alaska. A liquefaction facility in Nikiski, southwest of Anchorage, would process and export the liquefied natural gas. Trump, following his election, said his administration would ensure the project gets built “to provide affordable energy to Alaska and allies all over the world.” He highlighted it as a priority in an Alaska-specific executive order aimed at spurring resource development he signed on his first day in office. And during a recent news conference with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan, Trump touted the Alaska project's relative proximity to that country and said there were talks “about a joint venture of some type.” He did not elaborate.Japan's Foreign Ministry, in a statement, said the meeting between the leaders “was carried out in a way that would be beneficial to both sides and confirmed that the two nations will cooperate bilaterally toward strengthening energy security, including increasing LNG exports to Japan.” It did not specifically reference the Alaska project.Trump was a booster of the project during his first term. In 2017, he was there for the signing in Beijing of an agreement between then-Alaska Gov. Bill Walker and representatives of Chinese companies that called for the parties to work together on elements of the project. That effort ultimately fizzled: Walker, an independent, left office in 2018, and his successor, Dunleavy, took the project in a different direction. The project has a history of new governors taking a different tack than their predecessors; Walker did it, too. Walker called Trump’s recent actions significant: “What he has done is a tremendous boost to the awareness of the project worldwide.” Currently, there is no way to bring Alaska's large gas reserves to market. The focus for decades by major companies on the North Slope has been on producing more profitable oil. The 800-mile (1,280-kilometer) trans-Alaska oil pipeline — which began operating in 1977 — is the state's economic lifeline. Gas that occurs with deposits of oil is reinjected into the fields.State leaders are facing the likelihood that Alaska could have to import gas to help meet the needs of its most populous region due to production constraints in the aging Cook Inlet basin in south-central Alaska, hundreds of miles (kilometers) from the North Slope. Cook Inlet is Alaska's oldest producing oil and gas basin, dating to the 1950s.Even a year ago, the idea of importing gas was widely seen by lawmakers as a humiliating possibility. But it's now being met with resignation and hopes by some that it might simply be a short-term solution until a gas line is built.Alaska House Majority Leader Chuck Kopp, a Republican, said Alaskans “need to be hopeful" and cautioned against negative thinking.“We need to watch how we talk because it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, and an energy project of this size, if it was successful, would be transformative to the economic security of our state,” he said.Roger Marks, an oil and gas economist in Alaska, said he can't see the pipeline project happening and said more energy should be devoted to preparing for possible imports. “Creating these false expectations has just been a big distraction from what needs to be done,” he said.
Russia Dangles Arctic Oil to Lure Back U.S. Firms -The Kremlin is signaling that it’s once again open for business with American oil companies—if the political winds shift. Russian Direct Investment Fund chief Kirill Dmitriev told reporters ahead of talks in Saudi Arabia that Moscow sees a return of U.S. firms as inevitable, arguing that American majors once thrived in Russia and they would be unwise to ignore the opportunity again. The pitch comes as Russia faces mounting pressure to fill the void left by Western oilfield services giants like Halliburton and Baker Hughes, which exited after sanctions took hold. While President Putin has ordered the development of domestic drilling and exploration technologies, Russian experts admit the country remains critically dependent on Western equipment. Hydraulic fracturing technology, vital for boosting well output, is still sourced from “unfriendly” countries, with key components like rotary steerable systems being 100% imported. Dmitriev emphasized that joint U.S.-Russia projects, particularly in the Arctic, would be mutually beneficial. For now, ExxonMobil remains the only major U.S. oil firm tied to Russian assets, albeit under strained circumstances. The company was forced to abandon its stake in the Sakhalin-1 project after sanctions hit, yet Moscow has twice extended the deadline for the sale, now pushing it to 2026. While the Kremlin is offering access to vast natural resources, Western firms will be weighing the risks. Russia’s reliance on foreign technology and ongoing economic isolation make reentry anything but simple—even with a warm invitation.
Russia and US eye joint Arctic energy projects after Saudi talks - Russia and the United States discussed possible cooperation on energy projects in the Arctic at a meeting in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, a top Russian negotiator told POLITICO.Kirill Dmitriev, who heads the state-owned Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), said the economic conversations had been about broad strokes, but that the two sides had discussed some “specific areas of cooperation.”“It was more a general discussion — maybe joint projects in the Arctic. We specifically discussed the Arctic,” Dmitriev said by phone as he boarded a flight home after the talks in Riyadh.The negotiations, which sidelined Ukraine and Europe, have sparked angst and urgency in key European capitals as U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin look set to decide on Ukraine’s future without substantial input from Kyiv or its Western allies.
G7 Seeks to Disrupt Russian Exports With Tighter Oil Price Cap -- The Group of Seven is looking to send a big anti-Russia message on Feb. 24, the three-year anniversary of Putin's invasion of Ukraine, with a potential tightening of an oil price cap intended to further hurt revenue for Russia's war machine. Bloomberg has revealed a G7 draft statement Tuesday calling for member nations to collectively redraw the price limit, which is currently set at $60 a barrel for crude oil. The document spells out pressure for Russia to "incentivize it to negotiate a meaningful peace" in Ukraine; however, it's anything but clear whether this is being called for in cooperation with Trump officials, who are engaged in direct talks with Moscow. The draft at one point references "troops and resources on the ground, coupled with robust international oversight to monitor agreed-upon lines," Bloomberg writes. But based on the wording, it does seem a last-ditch parallel effort to jump-start a peace arrangement with Moscow, as European nations in particular seek a 'seat at the table' - given both Zelensky and EU officials were completely cut out of Tuesday's meetings with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia.According to more of the content: The draft indicates the allies would “recognize” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s “readiness to engage in talks to end the war,” while warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms for peace “have so far amounted to Ukraine’s complete capitulation.” The draft shows the allies are planning to meet with Zelenskiy on Feb. 24. Allies will call, according to the draft, for a “common sense peace that is fair, a peace that lasts,” which would entail “a durable security guarantee.”The initial oil price cap by the Western allies, first implemented in December 2022, proved too easy for Russia to work around, as India and China have remained the biggest buyers of Russian crude, and have proven not so compliant. The outgoing Biden administration in December then sought to ratchet sanctions on Russian oil, including sanctions on Surgutneftgas and Gazprom Neft, two Russian oil firms which together account for 25% of exports. Middlemen who supply Russian oil have also been targeted. This new planned G7 initiative would aim to severely disrupt Russian oil exports to India and China, and if successful could give Trump's team more leverage in negotiations with Moscow. But Bloomberg also notes: The allies will maintain their line that any negotiation to end the war “must involve Ukraine’s full participation,” and leave it open to pursuing Euro-Atlantic integration. It’s hard to be sure what tightening or adapting the cap would look like in practice. While a lower price could be one option, another could be to try to bolster enforcement of the current measure. During a late Tuesday afternoon press Q&A from Mar-a-Lago, Trump blasted critics of his peace plan, saying "I hear they're upset about not having a seat. Well, they've had a seat for three years." This was in response to Ukrainians feeling 'betrayed' by being left out of current talks with Moscow. Meanwhile, there are reports saying Trump and Putin could finally meet face-to-face by month's end, as the sides potentially progress toward a firm deal.
EU envoys approve new Russia sanctions package - European Union ambassadors approved on Wednesday the latest package of sanctions against Russia, banning Russian aluminum imports and imposing new export bans on Moscow.This 16th package is now expected to be approved by EU ministers at a regular meeting next Monday, the three-year mark of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.It includes new listings against shadow fleet vessels, export bans on chemicals, chrome and other products used in precision machine tools, as well as a ban on servicing oil and gas refineries, two EU diplomats said. They were granted anonymity to discuss the closed-door discussions. Despite last-minute concerns expressed by Greece, EU countries agreed to stop imports of Russian aluminum.
Will Europe return to Putin's gas? - The first proper winter in three years had already reignited energy debates. With temperatures frigid, winds weak and Asian competition for supplies fierce, the spot price at the Dutch Transfer Title Facility (TTF), Europe’s gas-trading hub, hit €58 ($61) per megawatt hour (MWh) on February 10th, its highest in two years (see charte). Then, two days later, came Donald Trump’s announcement that negotiations over an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine would start “immediately”. Six days after that America held talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia. Little surprise, then, that some European officials are eyeing Russian gas. Lower energy bills might revive Europe’s industry and placate households. Jari Stehn of Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecasts that an end to the war could lead to a 0.5% rise in European GDP, with most of that coming from cheaper gas. Renewed flows could also encourage Vladimir Putin to sign a peace deal and then stick to it, proponents suggest. Hungary and Slovakia are making the case. In a recent interview with The Economist, Friedrich Merz, who is likely soon to be chancellor of Germany, said that there would be no return to Russian gas “for the time being”, but conspicuously failed to rule out the possibility. Any such deal would represent an astonishing turnaround. The European Commission’s position is that it is “not making any links” between the restart of Russian flows and Ukrainian peace talks. Indeed, its stated ambition is to import no Russian gas or oil at all by 2027, so as to reduce dependence on its hostile neighbour. Most gas deliveries ceased in 2022, when Russia closed down Nord Stream 1, its main pipeline to Europe; another conduit, running through Ukraine, ceased to function on January 1st this year. The EU now receives just 10% of its gas from Russia, down from 45% in 2021. Russia, meanwhile, cannot redirect most of its supplies, which takes a heavy financial toll. In 2022 sales of the fuel accounted for 13% of its federal budget. Now they account for just 8%. In 2023 Gazprom, the country’s state-owned gas giant, posted its first loss since 1999. Ultimately, the decision about whether to turn on the taps will be made by countries at both ends of the pipelines and those the conduits traverse: Russia, Germany and Ukraine, as well as a few other eastern European states. Their leaders will come under severe pressure from other countries, too. Who is likely to prevail? At cruising speed the European Union consumes 320bn cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year. The bloc’s storage capacity, at around 115 bcm, is equivalent to a third of that. These reserves were nearly full when winter started. Since then, cold weather and supply snags have forced the EU to burn more gas than expected. Its storage is now only 44% full, compared with 66% at the same time last year. Analysts expect it to fall to the high-30% range by the end of winter, forcing heavy users, such as chemical makers and smelters, to scale back. Industrial output across the EU, already weak, would surely contract further. A bigger problem will arrive in summer. EU rules require storage to be 90% full by November 1st. It is typically replenished from April to October. This year Europe will have to buy more than usual—just when Asian importers are also rushing to restock. Little extra supply exists: a wave of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from America and Qatar is expected, but most will arrive next year. As a result, the price of gas for delivery this summer is above that for next winter, an anomaly that makes it unprofitable to store the fuel. Germany’s regulator is mulling subsidies to encourage storage. Some countries want to relax the EU‘s storage target; the European Commission is drafting a plan to that effect. Hungary and Slovakia still receive piped Russian flows from Turkey. They and a few others, including Austria, probably also welcome regasified Russian LNG that flows through northern Europe. But they now pay more for their fuel, supply of which is less certain than before. Resuming flows via Ukraine, which were paused at the start of the year, would help them. Doing so would also probably push down prices across Europe by reducing competition for supplies. Since Mr Trump’s remarks about a negotiated peace, prices on the TTF have fallen by 9%. Just reinstating the 15bcm the Ukrainian conduit carried in 2023—well below its maximum—could bring TTF prices down by a third from their recent peak, says Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University. MUFG, a bank, suggests prices could halve again by 2026 were flows through Ukraine to rise from their low level in 2023. Ukraine is adamant that it will not renew its deal with Russia, but workarounds are being studied. Slovakia’s national gas firm is establishing a subsidiary in Ukraine and applying for a transport licence, which may enable shipments from Russia. In a swap agreement with Russia, some of that gas may be labelled Azerbaijani, to help address Ukraine’s concerns.
U.S. LNG Flows Rise as Asian Buyers Grab Winter Spot Cargoes — U.S. LNG exports are continuing to ramp up through February, despite a seeming drop in interest from European buyers. U.S. volumes on the water are set to reach 2.29 Mt by Feb. 23, a 0.19 Mt week/week increase, according to Kpler predictive data. The increase was driven by Japanese and South Korean buyers shoring up supplies, as well as portfolio traders sending cargoes to East Asia.
- 2.29 million tons (Mt): U.S. LNG exports are continuing to ramp up through February, despite a seeming drop in interest from European buyers. U.S. volumes on the water are set to reach 2.29 Mt by Feb. 23, a 0.19 Mt week/week increase, according to Kpler predictive data. The increase was driven by Japanese and South Korean buyers shoring up supplies, as well as portfolio traders sending cargoes to East Asia.
- 43.4%: Meanwhile, European LNG imports appear to be slowing down as traders weigh policy changes on storage requirements and Ukrainian peace talks. European Union (EU) storage withdrawals have outpaced previous years, reaching 43.4% of capacity as of Monday (Feb. 17). That’s more than 20% lower than the same time last year, according to NGI calculations of Gas Infrastructure Europe data. However, Europe is set to see a nearly 1 Mt week/week drop in imports, according to Kpler predictive data.
- 10 Bcm: Last year, Russian pipeline supplies transported through Ukraine met around 4% of the EU’s total natural gas supply. The end of a transit agreement with Russia’s PJSC Gazprom in December briefly spiked prices as traders worried about a supply shortfall. Now the opposite may be happening. Ukraine has gauged European interest in using its infrastructure to transport gas from Azerbaijan, while U.S.-led talks with Russia have sparked speculation about a potential return of Russian supplies. Either way, Rystad estimated a return of flows through Ukraine could displace 10 Bcm of EU LNG demand this year.
- $13: Storage levels and impacts to renewable generation kept the prompt Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract climbing over the past several weeks, reaching as high as the mid-$17/MMBtu mark last week. However, prices appear to be softening as storage forecasts firm. The European Commission is reportedly considering exemptions for storage requirements for some members, while Engie SA estimates the bloc could weather winter with 80% storage capacity, according to Bloomberg. Rystad Energy analysts estimated TTF spot prices could average $13.00-13.50 through the summer before increasing near the end of the year.
3 cargoes: Bangladesh could become a destination for U.S. LNG cargoes diverted from the ongoing trade dispute with China. A unit of the country’s state-owned oil and gas company Bangladesh Oil, Gas & Mineral Corp. (Petrobangla) has launched a tender for three LNG shipments in March as summer heat and Rammadan power demand are expected to spike. Petrobangla has been issuing tenders and buying at least one U.S. spot cargo from Chinese companies since September, according to Kpler data. In January, the firm signed a tentative agreement for up to 5 Mt/y from the developing Argent LNG project in Louisiana.
Europe’s Growing Need for LNG Seen Having Limited Impact on U.S. Natural Gas Prices This Summer --Europe is expected to take in far more U.S. LNG this year to replenish its depleted natural gas stockpiles and to help offset the loss of demand from Chinese buyers looking to avoid reciprocal tariffs levied against imports of the super-chilled fuel from America. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. A cold winter, lower wind output and geopolitical tensions have left European natural gas inventories at lower levels than in years past. Kpler is forecasting a need for the European Union (EU) to inject more than 50 billion cubic meters, or about 1.8 Tcf, of natural gas this year in order to meet the bloc’s storage targets. That is higher than in the previous two restocking seasons. The continent also is expected to need more than 17 million tons (Mt) of additional LNG this year to meet its storage goals, according to Kpler Insight’s Laura Page, manager of LNG and natural gas.
LNG, Power Segments Help Shield TotalEnergies During Bumpy End to 2024 - TotalEnergies SE is still waiting to secure financing to restart construction at its long-delayed Mozambique LNG project in Africa. Graph and three charts showing global LNG futures contract settles for daily market intelligence. The company is standing by for three export agencies to fulfill financing before it can lift a force majeure declared on the work amid violence in the region in 2021. CEO Patrick Pouyanné said he expects the U.S. Export-Import Bank to confirm $4.7 billion of financing in the coming weeks. He added that funding for the $20 billion, 12.9 million ton/year (Mt/y) facility from the UK government was less certain as it continues to transition away from fossil fuels.
Oil Spill in the River Wandle | Merton Council Newsroom - A spokesperson for Merton Council said: “The council is aware of a diesel spill from Croydon that has polluted parts of the River Wandle – particularly in Watermeads Nature Reserve, Mitcham – with some wildlife covered in oil. “The Environment Agency (EA) is onsite leading a multiagency response, of which we are a part. “The London Fire Brigade has been attempting to contain the spill and Thames Water is working on cleaning efforts. “The public is advised not to touch the water, nor allow pets into the water. “In addition, residents should not feed wildlife in the waterway as that will encourage them to ingest contamination. “An investigation will be led by the EA. “The council will provide an update when it has more information.” Updated: Wednesday 19 February 2025 at 7.30pm A spokesperson for Merton Council said: “The Environment Agency (EA) – leading the response to the oil spill affecting the River Wandle – continues to work with Thames Water to clean the water system and to also capture oil before it makes further progress in the river. “The EA, RSPB and National Trust are monitoring effects on wildlife, including a small number of wildfowl which have been contaminated. Fish have been so far unaffected. “Residents are reminded to keep away from the contamination and to prevent pets entering the water. “Investigations into the spill are ongoing.”
In a major shift, Japex to prioritise oil and gas investment through 2030 (Reuters) - Japan Petroleum Exploration is prioritising investment in oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) through 2030 - revising an earlier plan to aggressively expand its renewables businesses, its president said. "For now, the investment focus will remain on oil and gas exploration and production... as securing a fair return from renewable energy sources such as offshore wind is challenging due to rising costs," President Michiro Yamashita told Reuters in an interview on Wednesday. Other global peers have also scaled back renewables investments due to lower returns. At the same time, profits from oil and gas have soared since Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted supply and propelled energy prices higher. In 2022, Japex set a goal of having its profits split equally between E&P and other businesses by the 2030 financial year to support the energy transition towards carbon neutrality. Yamashita said, however, that the current ratio of E&P contributing 70%-80% of earnings will likely remain unchanged through 2030, driven by expansion in the U.S. and Norway. He added that Japex could selectively invest in non-oil and gas segments if returns are viable. Japex's original plan called for E&P investment of 230 billion yen ($1.5 billion) over nine years. But the company now expects to invest 1.5 times that amount or even more as current crude prices exceed the plan's assumed $50 a barrel by a large margin. "My biggest challenge now is acquiring a tight oil operator business in the U.S. and building an investment structure for sustainable profits," Yamashita said, adding that the company would like to secure a deal this year or in 2026. Investment will likely be capped at $300 million per project, reflecting lessons from past losses on large investments and Japex's exit from a Canadian oil sands project, he said. Japex wants to strike a balance between shareholder returns, financial soundness and investment discipline, Yamashita said. In Norway, Japex is seeking to boost profit by expanding production at an existing project and with further exploration. Yamashita said the Japanese company views the Trump administration's energy policy as enhancing predictability and stability, making it "favourable" for them. Given Trump's plan to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, the company aims to gradually acquire gas assets, he said. But the Alaska LNG project, which Trump supports, is not a realistic investment proposition due to its unclear economics and large scale, he said.
NOSDRA signs pact to tackle oil spill in Niger Delta -- The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) has moved to curb oil spillage in the Niger Delta region and other oil-producing areas across Nigeria. The agency signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with F1 Consulting in Abuja on Thursday to strengthen oil spill response and training NOSDRA personnel. The agreement is aimed at enhancing the agency’s effectiveness in mitigating environmental pollution in oil-producing communities. Speaking at the signing, NOSDRA’s Director-General, Mr. Chukwuemeka Woke, emphasized the agency’s dedication to fulfilling its mandate. He expressed optimism that the collaboration would yield significant results in protecting communities affected by oil spills. “With the establishment and signing of this MoU, we believe this will go a long way in solving the problem of pollution and oil spillages in our various communities,” Woke said. He called on oil companies and stakeholders to support the agency’s efforts and ensure prompt reporting of spills instead of withholding crucial information. In his remarks, Mr. Jude Ndubisi, Lead Consultant of F1 Consulting, noted that the partnership seeks to institutionalize Nigeria’s national oil spill contingency plan at the grassroots level, particularly within host communities. “The national spill contingencies plan is the primary document that talks about spill response strategies as a country. “This document for a very long time has not been institutionalised down to the host communities. “So, we are trying to build a partnership and synergy with NOSDRA to bring the provisions of the national spill contingency plan down to the communities where the oil installations exist,” he said. He further stressed the importance of collaboration between oil license holders, government agencies, and local communities to enhance environmental preservation. Also speaking, Mrs. Katherine George, NOSDRA’s Director of Legal Services, described the MoU as being in line with the agency’s core mandate of ensuring zero tolerance for oil spillage. “We believe this MoU will accomplish NOSDRA’s goals and mission of achieving zero oil spillage in the country,” she said.
Suriname Seeks 1.5 Billion Dollars to Fund Oil Project --Suriname’s state oil company needs to find $1.5 billion in funding this year in order to be able to take part in the development of the Gran Morgu deposit, Reuters hasreported, noting the project got a final investment decision late last year.Staatsolie is already talking with banks, the managing director of the company told Reuters, and “They're very eager to do it.”The Gran Morgu deposit lies in Block 58—an offshore block explored by TotalEnergies and APA Corp. The French supermajor announced a massive investment plan of $10.5 billion for the block in a perceived bid to repeat Exxon’s success in Suriname’s neighbor Guyana. The oil reserves in the area are estimated at some 750 million barrels, lying in depths between 100 and 1,000 meters. According to Suriname’s state oil company the project could have a productive life of 20 to 25 years.The total costs of developing the Gran Morgu deposit have been estimated at $12.2 billion, with Staatsolie’s share of this total at $2.4 billion, of which around half needs to be committed this year. First oil from the field is expected in 2028. TotalEnergies has already commissioned the construction of a floating production, storage and offloading vessel for Gran Morgu. The vessel will have a capacity of 200,000 barrels daily, which would make it one of the French company’s biggest, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said last October.Crude oil discoveries in Suriname have opened access to some 2.4 billion barrels in reserves, Wood Mackenzie analysts have estimated. The consultancy also reported that the South American nation holds some 12.5 trillion cubic feet in natural gas reserves. A total of nine offshore discoveries have been made in the South American country in the last six years but commercial development of any of them is still in the future.Iraq: Kurdish oil export ban cost $19 billion - Iraq is working with the Kurdistan Regional Government to resolve technical issues that have blocked oil exports to Turkey for nearly two years, causing the country losses estimated at $19 billion, the Iraqi Foreign Minister confirmed. Fouad Hussein, in an interview with “Bloomberg” during his participation in the 61st Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Germany, relaunched in the homeland by “Iraqi news”. “The legislative framework has been established, but now there are a number of technical hurdles that need to be resolved between the oil companies, the federal government and the regional government before exports can resume,” Hussein said. The main issue in the discussion is the volume of exports and the number of barrels to be allocated for domestic consumption. According to Hussein, oil production in Iraqi Kurdistan stands at around 300 barrels per day, while the Kurdish government estimates its domestic needs – including electricity generation – at around 120.000 barrels per day. However, the federal government in Baghdad believes that a lower volume could be sufficient to cover the region's domestic consumption. Iraq's Oil Minister, Hayan Abdul-Ghani, announced that oil exports from Iraqi Kurdistan will resume in the coming days. During the Iraqi-British Business Forum in Baghdad, Abdul-Ghani said that Baghdad will receive about 300 barrels per day from Iraqi Kurdistan. A decisive step in the resumption of exports was the approval by the Iraqi parliament, in early February, of an amendment to the general budget law, which resolved the dispute between the federal government and the KRG over the management of oil resources. Thanks to this agreement, oil extracted in the autonomous region will be able to be exported again through Turkey, restoring one of the main sources of income for the Iraqi economy.
ADNOC Gas Delivers Record $2.84 Billion Placement -- Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. PJSC (ADNOC) achieved Friday what it said is the biggest placement on the Abu Dhabi exchange, raising about $2.84 billion from issuing 3.1 billion shares in its integrated gas processing arm to institutional investors. The so-called marketed offering, the first in the United Arab Emirates according to ADNOC, was priced at AED 3.4 ($0.93) per share, about 43 percent higher than ADNOC Gas PLC’s initial public offering (IPO) price of AED 2.37 in March 2023. Raising around $2.5 billion and resulting in a market capitalization of approximately $50 billion, the IPO was the largest on the Abu Dhabi bourse then according to ADNOC. Friday’s offering, which attracted Gulf and international investors, represents four percent of ADNOC Gas’ issued and outstanding share capital and will raise its free float to 9 percent headline, ADNOC said in an online statement. ADNOC retains an 86 percent stake in ADNOC Gas. “A higher free float is also expected to provide a pathway towards inclusion in the Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Market Index and the Financial Times Stock Exchange Emerging Market Index, which may take place at the next quarterly review, subject to ADNOC Gas meeting all the relevant inclusion criteria”, ADNOC said. “Index inclusion of ADNOC Gas would contribute to the diversification of the Company’s investor base and significantly broaden awareness of its value proposition”. The offering was oversubscribed 4.4 times, ADNOC said, noting the final offer price represented a five percent discount to ADNOC Gas’ closing price Thursday. ADNOC expects settlement February 26. BofA Securities, Citi, EFG-Hermes, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC and International Securities acted as joint global coordinators and joint bookrunners. ADNOC chief financial officer Khaled Al Zaabi said, “The exceptional demand and competitive discount provided by the international and domestic investor community reflects the strong confidence in ADNOC Gas’ track record and growth prospects”. In 2024 ADNOC Gas achieved its highest-ever yearly net profit at $5 billion, driven by natural gas demand in the UAE. Net income for the fourth quarter of 2024 totaled $1.38 billion, ADNOC Gas’ highest quarterly result since its public listing in 2023, it reported February 6, 2025. Annual sales volumes grew two percent to 3,616 million MMBtu. ADNOC Gas supplies about 60 percent of the UAE’s sales gas needs, as well as supplies over twenty countries, according to the company. Adjusted revenue for 2024 rose seven percent year-on-year to $24.43 billion. “The company’s strong top-line performance for 2024 translated into a strong EBITDA [earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) growth of 14 percent to $8.65 billion with a high, stable margin of 35 percent”, ADNOC Gas said. For the fourth quarter, adjusted revenue was $6.06 billion and EBITDA $2.28 billion. “The robust improvement was driven by several factors including a richer mix of gas, producing more liquids, and improved commercial terms in the domestic market”, ADNOC Gas said. Year-end free cash flow was $4.58 billion, with the October-December period contributing $1.22 billion. ADNOC Gas declared a dividend of $3.41 billion for 2024, half of which was paid September 2024. It expects to distribute the remaining half this April. “The final dividend for FY 2024 is in line with the company’s robust policy to increase the annual dividend by 5 percent annually and reflects the company’s strong free cash flow, which exceeds the dividend commitment by over $1 billion”, it said.
Kazakh Oil Output Hits Record High Despite Russian Pipeline Damage (Reuters) — Kazakhstan has pumped record high oil volumes despite damage on its main export route via Russia, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), industry sources said on Thursday. Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan was around 2.12 million barrels per day (bbl/d) on February 19, the sources said, citing official data, which has not been made public. Russia said this week CPC capacity was down 30-40% after an attack by Ukrainian drones. It was not immediately clear how Kazakhstan had been able to pump record volumes given output increases need to correspond with export pipeline capacity. Кazakhstan relies on the Caspian pipeline for more than 80% of its exports and lacks alternative routes. It ships more than 1% of daily global supply, stretches over 1,500 km (939 miles) and carries crude from Kazakhstan's vast Tengiz oilfield on the northeastern shores of the Caspian Sea as well as from Russian producers. Record high oil output in Kazakhstan in February follows a rise in production at the giant Tengiz oilfield, operated by Tengizchevroil, led by Chevron, which has embarked on a $48 billion expansion of Tengiz. Oil output stood above 920,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) on February 19, up from some 900,000 bbl/d early in February and an average of 640,000 bbl/d in January. Russian President Vladimir Putin said the drone attack damage would affect global energy markets and that restoring the facility quickly would be challenging as it would require Western equipment. A 30-40% flow reduction would amount to some 500,000-680,000 bbl/d of installed capacity of CPC pipeline, Reuters calculations showed. Kazakhstan's energy ministry said on Tuesday the country was supplying oil without restrictions. The ministry has yet to reply to a request for comment on Kazakh oil output. Shareholders in the CPC include U.S. majors Chevron and Exxon Mobil, as well as the Russian state, Russian firm Lukoil, and Kazakh state company KazMunayGas.
Iranian Oil Exports to China Rebound Iranian crude oil flows to China have rebounded this month after a U.S. crackdown on shipments launched in late 2024 decimated them in January. In a last-minute push to sanction Iran, the Biden admin blacklisted a number of tankers, trading entities, and shipping companies as participants in sanctioned oil trade. The February average of Iranian oil exports to its biggest buyer is set to average 1.74 million barrels daily, according to preliminary data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. The figure is an 86% increase from January flows. The boost in shipments was enabled by the opening of new receiving terminals and more ship-to-ship transfers, the Bloomberg report noted. The Trump administration has threatened to return to the maximum pressure approach of Trump’s first term in a bid to force Iran to give u developing a nuclear weapon. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the target is to squeeze Iranian oil exports to a tenth of their current levels. Kpler said in a recent analysis that the return to a maximum pressure campaign against Iran on the part of Washington was likely to weaken oil exports to China, at least for a while. “Some buyers, particularly larger Chinese privately owned refiners, are likely to steer clear of such dealings as a precaution in the near term,” due to higher prices resulting from workarounds to avoid U.S. sanctions, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi wrote. China’s private oil refiners, the so-called teapots, are key buyers of Iran’s sanctioned crude, and the two sides have established a trade relationship favorable for both. Iran gets to sell its crude that nearly everyone else shuns, while China’s independent refiners, the so-called teapots, get cheap oil. However, the tougher U.S. squeeze on Iran’s oil industry will inevitably lift prices, which would affect buying decisions, as noted by Kpler.
Crude Oil Prices Extend Losses Ahead Of Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks --The easing in crude oil prices continued unabated on Monday with both Brent and WTI shedding a little less than a quarter percent. The sentiment is attributed to the prospect of peace in Eastern Europe, as talks to end the war between Russia and Ukraine are expected to begin in Saudi Arabia later in the week. Supply concerns are expected to ease if an end to the war also portends a reversal of sanctions on Russia and an easier flow of Russian crude oil to the global markets. The easing in the prices of the black liquid comes also amidst the Dollar's strength. The Dollar Index which measures the U.S. Dollar's strength against a basket of 6 currencies is currently at 106.83 versus 106.71 at close on Friday. Brent Oil Futures for April settlement is currently trading at $74.66, having slipped 0.11 percent from the previous close of $74.74 on Friday. Brent oil had declined 0.37 percent on Friday, 0.21 percent on Thursday and 2.4 percent on Wednesday. The day's trading ranged between $75.21 and $74.19 whereas the 52-week trading range was between $68.68 and $92.18. Losses are more than 1.6 percent over the past week and 7.6 percent over the past month. Brent oil is currently down more than 20 percent from the levels three years ago. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Futures for April settlement edged down 0.03 percent from the previous close of $70.71 to trade at $70.69. WTI Crude oil had declined 0.60 percent on Friday, 0.14 percent on Thursday and 2.5 percent on Wednesday. Prices ranged between a high of $71.19 and a low of $70.50 in the day's trading. Trading has ranged between $64.61 and $86.97 over the past 52 weeks. Losses in the past week exceed 1.8 percent. Over the past month, the decline exceeds 9.2 percent. Prices are currently 21.6 percent below the levels three years ago.
Ukraine Peace Talks Could Sink Brent Oil by $10 | OilPrice.com - The start of the U.S.-Russian talks on ending the war in Ukraine adds another bearish geopolitical factor for oil prices this year.As top U.S. and Russian officials are meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss the possible end of the war without Ukraine’s participation, the market is starting to come around to the potential of eased access to Russian oil supply.If talks result in a deal and a possible sanctions relief on Moscow’s crude oil and petroleum product exports, oil prices will ease by up to $10 per barrel for the Brent benchmark, Bank of America says.“Should sanctions relief allow it, we believe Brent crude oil prices could drop between $5 and $10/bbl if Russian barrels suddenly do not need to make a long journey to India or China, and more supply is suddenly made available,” analysts at BofA said in a notethis week.A potential sanctions relief could also depress refining margins globally amid higher diesel supply out of Russia, according to the bank.“Global refining margins could fall as well. While margins have been normalizing since the Ukraine war started, they could go even lower under sanctions relief for diesel,” BofA’s analysts noted.Of course, oil prices could shoot up if talks falter or fail and the U.S. ratchets up the sanctions on Russia to try to force a deal.The potential of an agreement to end the war in Ukraine is one of the several bearish factors that market analysts and participants are watching at the start of the year.The U.S. tariff threats and trade spats, the tariffs already in place, and the possibility of endless tit-for-tat levies could reduce economic growth in major economies, including the U.S. and China. Trade frictions with the on-again, off-again tariff threats have raised uncertainty, and businesses now lack the predictability of stable trade with any country with which America trades.In January, supply concerns with tightened sanctions on Russia and Iran and falling global stocks boosted an oil price rally, but these bullish signals were overshadowed by early February by concerns about economic and oil demand growth amid the trade and tariff tensions. By the first week of February, crude oil prices had erased all the gains they had accumulated in 2025. Market sentiment reverted to caution after President Trump began imposing tariffs and threatening to slap more of these.In the week to February 11, the latest available data from exchanges, hedge funds and other money managers continued to amass short – in other words, bearish – positions in the two most traded crude oil futures, WTI and Brent.The WTI net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – fell in the latest reporting week, driven more by fresh shorts entering the market than longs liquidating, ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said on Monday.The net long in Brent futures also dropped, albeit at a much slower rate, the strategists added.The past few weeks added an additional bearish factor for oil prices—Iraq and Kurdistan are on track to resume oil flowsand exports from the semi-autonomous Iraqi region by the end of March.The resumption of Kurdistan’s exports would add about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to the oil supply, although it is not clear yet how much of this would be allocated to international markets and how much would be kept for domestic consumption in Iraq.Among the mounting bearish signals for crude, OPEC+ is set to start adding supply in April, per its current plan to begin easing the production cuts from the second quarter onwards.But April is also reportedly a target date for the U.S. Administration to have some form of a ceasefire for Ukraine ready by Easter. If oil prices drop materially in case of a peace deal, OPEC+ may have to reconsider, once again, its plans to return more supply to the market. On the bullish front, tightened U.S. sanctions on Iran under President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign could support oil prices. Yet, President Trump can’t have it all. A deal on Ukraine would surely go down in his own book of “proudest legacy” as a peacekeeper—legacy the President wants to be remembered by, as he said in his inaugural address. If a deal leads to a $10 a barrel decline in oil prices, it would ease energy costs for American consumers—a key campaign pledge of President Trump. But U.S. oil producers would not be willing to boost drilling at $10 a barrel lower prices.They are not ramping up activity even at the current prices as they seek capital efficiencies and cost cuts and stick to spending discipline to return more cash to their shareholders. U.S. producers are unlikely to unleash President Trump’s coveted “drill, baby, drill” boom as they look at the economics of output levels and at signals from Wall Street investors.
Crude Oil Prices Drop Amid Talks of Potential Restart of Kurdish Oil Exports - Oil prices are under pressure this morning with talk of a potential restart in oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region Energy. Despite the downward pressure on oil prices through much of last week, the market still managed to eke out a small gain with ICE Brent settling 0.11% higher on the week. However, time spreads have weakened significantly since peaking in January, suggesting that the tightness in the physical market is easing. While the prompt ICE Brent spread is still in backwardation, the NYMEX WTI prompt spread has flipped back to a small contango. Pressure on the flat price has continued this morning with suggestions that oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region could resume in March, which could see exports of around 300k b/d through the Ceyhan pipeline. Flows were halted in early 2023 after a payment dispute between Iraq and Turkey. However, this is not the first time we have heard suggestions that exports could restart. In addition, if flows were to resume it would complicate issues around Iraqi output and its compliance with production targets under the OPEC+ deal. Positioning data also shows that speculators are relatively more bearish towards the oil market. The managed money net long in NYMEX WTI fell by 18,303 lots WoW to 122,237 lots as of last Tuesday. This move was driven more by fresh shorts entering the market than longs liquidating. Meanwhile, there was little change in speculative positioning in ICE Brent, with the net long cut by just 569 lots to 289,154 lots. European gas prices fell by a little more than 9% last week, the largest weekly decline since early January. However, prices still remain elevated, with TTF trading above EUR50/MWh. US and Russia talks working towards a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine will weigh on sentiment. In addition, there are ongoing discussions around flexibility with regard to storage refill targets. There is still little clarity over whether Germany will subsidise storage refills and, if so, how it will be done. However, the backwardation between summer 2025 and winter 2025/26 prices has flattened somewhat over the last week. If this trend continues, it obviously reduces the likelihood of new subsidies. However, storage levels are a concern for Europe. Gas storage levels fell at a fairly quick pace last week, leaving them at a little under 45% full, compared to a 5-year average of 54% full. Colder weather forecasts for the next couple of days mean that these stronger storage draws will likely continue until the weather turns milder later in the week.
Oil Futures Remain Mixed Amid Supply Disruptions, Peace Talks (DTN) -- Oil futures traded mixed Tuesday as supply disruptions from Kazakhstan lifted prices, while uncertainty over ongoing peace talks between the United States and Russia kept gains in check. NYMEX WTI futures for March delivery rose $1.06 to $71.80 barrel (bbl), while April ICE Brent futures increased $0.58 to $75.81 bbl. March RBOB futures fell $0.0024 to $2.0875 gallon, while ULSD futures for March delivery dropped $0.0229 to $2.4389 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened 0.340 points to 106.915 against a basket of foreign currencies. A Ukrainian drone damaged a CPC crude oil pumping station in Russia, halting flows on the export pipeline and raising concerns about a potential 30% reduction in Kazakhstan's oil exports for up to two months, according to Transneft. Kazakh crude oil, rebranded as KEBCO after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, accounts for about 1% of global supply. This supply disruption has contributed to the upward movement in oil prices, though gains remain limited as ongoing peace talks between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine conflict continue to shape market sentiment. New sanctions on Russian crude oil exports have increased demand for Middle Eastern crude among Indian and Chinese refiners, pushing Dubai-Oman crude to a 15-year-high $2.43 premium to Brent. Oversupply concerns have also weighed on the market after Iraq's oil minister on Monday reiterated that flows on the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline could resume within a week, potentially adding 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) to global supply. However, no formal agreement has been reached between Baghdad and Kirkuk.
The Market Weighed the Expectations of a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal The oil market on Tuesday posted an outside trading day as the market weighed the expectations of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and news of a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil pipeline pumping station in Russia. The oil market, during Monday’s shortened trading session, traded to its low of $70.12 after U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration officials announced they had begun discussions with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. The market later bounced off its low and began its upward trend on a Bloomberg News report stating that OPEC+ was considering whether to delay the supply increases, which was later denied by Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak. The market was further supported and rallied to a high of $72.07 early Tuesday morning on news that Ukrainian drones had attacked a Russian pipeline that pumps about 1% of global crude supply. However, the market gave up some of its sharp gains and traded in a sideways trading range amid the uncertainty in the market. The March WTI contract settled up $1.11 at $71.85 and the April Brent contract settled up 62 cents at $75.84. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 2.12 cents at $2.4406 and the RB market setting down 32 points at $2.0867. On Tuesday, a senior Russian official said that Ukrainian drones had attacked a pipeline in Russia which pumps about 1% of global crude supply, a strike that he said could disrupt flows to world markets and damage U.S. companies. On Monday, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium said that a crude oil transportation facility, the Kropotkinskaya station in the southern Krasnodar region, was struck by several drones loaded with explosives and shrapnel. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that the volume of oil pumped through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was down by 30-40% due to a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station in southern Russia. Separately, Russian oil transporting company Transneft said oil transit volumes from Kazakhstan via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline could be reduced about 30% due to the damage done by a Ukrainian drone attack. It said it will take up to two months month to deal with the damage caused by the drone strike. The State Department said the United States and Russia agreed on Tuesday to address “irritants” to the U.S.-Russia relationship and begin working on a path to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority said oil production was estimated to be down between 120,000 and 150,000 bpd of oil, as of Tuesday morning, due to the recent extreme cold and related operations challenges. Justin Kringstad, the director of the North Dakota Pipeline Authority, said associated wellhead natural gas production was also estimated to be down 0.34 to 0.42 bcfd. Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ producers are not considering a delay to a series of monthly oil supplies increases scheduled to begin in April.
Oil settles up on supply hits, traders cautious on Ukraine peace talks (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as supply disruptions mounted in Russia and the U.S., while talks to end the war in Ukraine capped gains as this could boost supply from Moscow.Brent crude futures rose 62 cents, or 0.8% to settle at $75.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $1.11, or 1.6%, to settle at $71.85 a barrel, catching up with the gains Brent registered on Monday, when the U.S. contract traded without settlement due to a holiday.Brent rose 48 cents in the previous session after Ukrainian drones attacked a pumping station in Russia on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline, which moves crude from Kazakhstan to world markets.Oil flows through the pipeline were reduced by 30-40% on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said. A 30% cut would equate to a 380,000 barrels per day reduction in oil supply, per Reuters calculations."Brent already benefited yesterday from the CPC supply disruptions, but generally it will come down to how long and how big the disruption is," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Oil markets received another supply shock on Tuesday as Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiisk suspended loadings due to a storm, two sources familiar with the matter said. Exports from the port in February were revised up by 0.24 million metric tons from an initial plan to 2.25 million tons or some 590,000 barrels per day, sources said Monday. A cold snap in the U.S. has hit oil supply. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimated that production in the country's No. 3 producing state would be down by as much as 150,000 barrels per day.Keeping prices in check, U.S. and Russian delegates held a 4-1/2-hour meeting in Saudi Arabia to discuss ways to halt the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II. Ukraine was not represented and Russia hardened its demands. If a deal is reached, Washington and its allies could drop sanctions on Russian oil supplies."Everyone is waiting on what is going to happen with Russia and Ukraine," "That's not something that's going to happen in the next 15 minutes, so the market is going to stay cautious," In a potential boost for oil prices, U.S. inventories and trade data due on Thursday could show lower net-imports for crude oil last week.However, expectations of a heavy refinery maintenance season could weigh on demand in the weeks ahead. "There is plenty of crude out here on the offer with refinery turnarounds beginning in March seen as heavy," U.S. crude oil and gasoline stockpiles likely rose last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Traders are also waiting for clarity on whether OPEC+ will proceed with plans to boost oil supply from April, or delay that to a later date.
Oil price climbs amid US, Russia supply disruptions - Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday as supply disruptions in the U.S. and Russia tightened global markets, while investors awaited updates on Ukraine peace negotiations. By 4:05 pm AEDT (5:05 am GMT) Brent crude futures climbed $0.12 or 0.2% to US$75.96 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April delivery added $0.13 or 0.2% to $71.968 per barrel. Oil flows through the pipeline fell by 30-40% on Tuesday after Ukraine’s drone attack on CPC’s largest pump station, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Meanwhile, frigid temperatures in the U.S. threatened domestic oil production. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimated that output in the state, the third-largest oil producer in the country, could decline by as much as 150,000 bpd due to extreme cold. The geopolitical landscape remained in focus, as Washington announced plans for further discussions with Moscow on ending the war in Ukraine. ANZ analysts commented in a note to clients: "The U.S. and Russia signalled an intention to remove sanctions against Moscow as part of any accord to end the conflict in Ukraine.” Additionally, indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a second stage of a Gaza ceasefire agreement were set to begin, officials confirmed.
Concerns Over Oil Supply Disruptions in the U.S. and Russia - The oil market continued to trend higher on Wednesday as it remained well supported by concerns over oil supply disruptions in the U.S. and Russia, while the market awaits further developments on a possible deal to end the war in Ukraine. In the U.S., extreme cold weather in the U.S. has threatened oil supply due to wells freezing and in Russia, Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows were reduced by 30-40% as of Tuesday following a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. A 30% cut equates to a loss of about 380,000 bpd of oil supply. The crude market posted a low of $71.71 on the opening and continued to extend the gains seen during Tuesday’s trading session. The market rallied to a high of $73.04 by mid-morning amid the supply concerns. It later erased some of its sharp gains as it positioned itself ahead of the release of the weekly petroleum stocks reports later in the evening and on Thursday morning. The March WTI contract settled up 40 cents at $72.25 and the April Brent contract settled up 20 cents at $76.04. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 1.59 cents at $2.4565 and the RB market settling down 2 points at $2.0865. U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as “a dictator without elections” and said he had better move fast to secure a peace or he would have no country left. This was after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hit back at U.S. President Donald Trump’s suggestion on Tuesday that Ukraine was responsible for Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, saying the U.S. president was trapped in a Russian disinformation bubble. Speaking ahead of talks with President Trump’s Ukraine envoy, a day after the U.S. President said Ukraine “should never have started” the conflict, Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said he would like Trump’s team to have “more truth” about Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump could meet as early as this month, although a face-to-face meeting will take time to prepare.Goldman Sachs said a potential Ukraine ceasefire and the associated easing in sanctions on Russia are unlikely to substantially increase Russia’s oil flows. The bank said “We believe that Russia crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9.0 million barrels per day production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports.” The bank assumes that OPEC+ is likely to postpone its planned gradual ramp-up in oil production to July this year from April, on increased compliance with OPEC+ targets by Russia and several other OPEC+ producers, as well as continued uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.25 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 21st, increasing available refining capacity by 258,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 893,000 bpd in the week ending February 28th. According to Natgasweather, the overnight GFS weather model trended 7-8 heating degree days colder for the next 9-15 day period. Meanwhile, the European weather model was less than 1 heating degree day changed. The EC remains nearly 20 HDDs warmer compared to the GFS for the 8-15 day forecast period. The private weather forecaster stated that while the EC is not as cold as the GFS for February 26th-March 6th, it still shows colder than normal temperatures gaining ground across the U.S. for March 5th-6th.
Oil holds near one-week high on supply concerns, sanctions on Russia eyed (Reuters) - Oil prices held near a one-week high on Wednesday on worries about supply disruptions in Russia and the U.S., while the market awaited clarity on sanctions as Washington tries to broker a deal to end the war in Ukraine. Brent futures rose 20 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $76.04 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 40 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $72.25. That was the highest close for both crude benchmarks since February 11. "The market is trying to make up its mind on three bullish drivers: Russia, Iran and OPEC," said BNP Paribas commodities strategist Aldo Spanjer. "People are trying to figure out the impact of announced and actual sanctions." Drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are reducing supplies. Russia said Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) oil flows, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30-40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. A 30% cut would equate to the loss of 380,000 barrels per day of market supply, Reuters calculations show. Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested the CPC attack might have been coordinated with Ukraine's Western allies. In the U.S., cold weather threatened oil supply, with the North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimating production in the state would decline by as much as 150,000 bpd. There is also speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia and Kazakhstan may decide to delay its planned supply increase in April, said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as "a dictator without elections" on Wednesday and said he should move fast to secure peace. However likely a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine may be, analysts at Goldman Sachs said any associated easing in sanctions against Russia is unlikely to bring a significant increase in oil flows. "We believe that Russian crude oil production is constrained by its OPEC+ 9 million bpd production target rather than current sanctions, which are affecting the destination but not the volume of oil exports," Goldman Sachs said in a report. In the Middle East, Israel and Hamas will begin indirect negotiations on a second stage of the Gaza ceasefire deal, which could weigh on oil prices by reducing the risk of supply disruption. Tariffs announced by the Trump administration could also dent oil prices by raising the cost of consumer goods, weakening the global economy and reducing fuel demand. Worries about European and Chinese demand are also helping keep prices in check. Trump's initial policy proposals have raised concern at the Federal Reserve about higher inflation, with firms telling the U.S. central bank they generally expect to raise prices to pass through the cost of import tariffs. The Fed uses higher interest rates to combat rising prices and inflation. So long as the Fed and other central banks keep interest rates higher for longer, borrowing costs will remain elevated, which can slow economic growth and demand for oil. Separately, the market is waiting for U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group later on Wednesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday. , Those reports will come out one day later than usual due to the U.S. Presidents' Day holiday on Monday. Analysts forecast energy firms added about 2.2 million barrels of crude to U.S. stockpiles during the week ended February 14. If correct, that would be the first time energy firms added crude into storage for four weeks in a row since April 2024.
Oil dips as US stockpiles rise, tariff concerns weigh -- Oil prices traded lower on Thursday after an industry report indicated a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude stockpiles, while concerns over trade tariffs further pressured sentiment. By 4:00 pm AEDT (5:00 am GMT) Brent crude futures fell $0.28 or 0.4% to US$75.76 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April dropped $0.36 or 0.5% to $71.89 per barrel. Oil prices had held near a one-week high on Wednesday but retreated as fresh data signaled growing U.S. inventories and potential trade disruptions. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 3.34 million barrels for the week ending February 14, exceeding expectations of a 2.2-million-barrel rise. Investor sentiment was further dampened by new import tariffs announced by the Trump administration, which could raise costs for consumer goods, weaken the global economy, and ultimately reduce fuel demand. Despite the downward pressure, concerns over global supply disruptions helped limit losses. Russia reported that a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station had reduced Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) oil flows by 30% - 40% on Tuesday. Analysts at ANZ noted: "The uncertainty over Trump's trade and foreign policies are also increasing the uncertainty over the supply outlook. Adding to this were reports that as much as 30% of oil exports from a major Kazakh pipeline to the Black Sea may be halted after a Ukrainian drone attacked a pumping station in Russia." Official U.S. crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due on Thursday, following a one-day delay due to a U.S. holiday.
Oil Prices Climb as Trump Pledges to Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve - The U.S. Administration will fill up fast the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), President Donald Trump said at an investment conference in Miami. “We’ll fill it up fast, but it’s at the lowest level. When we made the transition, it was at the lowest level in history, ever recorded,” President Trump said. “They put it all out because they thought they could keep gasoline prices down a little bit, just go past the election, and after that, they didn’t care,” the President added, criticizing Joe Biden’s administration for failing to curb the hikes in gasoline prices. “And it didn’t work because they didn’t get elected. I got elected, but the price of gasoline still rose over 35 percent,” President Trump said. The SPR needs to be refilled as the strategic reserve plays a critical role in stabilizing the U.S. market during global supply disruptions. The Biden administration released more than 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR starting in 2021, amid high gasoline prices. The Department of Treasury claims that these releases, along with coordinated international efforts, helped reduce gasoline prices by up to 40 cents per gallon in 2022. The SPR currently houses 395 million barrels of crude—a figure that is about 250 million barrels less than oil in the SPR at the beginning of Joe Biden’s term in office. The Reserve’s total capacity is 714 million barrels of crude. Also this week, President Trump promised tax cuts for oil and gas producers. President Trump will enlist the help of Republicans in Congress to reduce the debt burden on households and companies, notably oil and gas producers, whom he will allow to expense 100% of capital spending. Oil drillers, however, have signaled they had no immediate plans to boost production any further, unless global prices improved enough to motivate such a move.
WTI Holds Gains Despite Bigger Than Expected Crude Build, No SPR Addition - Oil extended a string of small gains as uncertainty over global supplies lingered, offsetting API's report of another increase in US crude stockpiles. Crude has risen this week on the prospect that supplies may tighten as oil flows through a key Kazakh pipeline were reduced and as OPEC+ considers whether to push back a planned production increase. “Prices will likely remain rangebound, continuing to move with headlines,” Royal Bank of Canada analysts including Brian Leisen wrote in a note, adding that “as more time passes without the market realizing a substantial catalyst,” traders will tend to position themselves closer to average prices. So all eyes are on the official data this morning for confirmation of the inventory rise. API
- Crude +3.34mm
- Cushing
- Gasoline +2.8mm
- Distillates -2.7mm
DOE
- Crude +4.63mm (+2.16mm exp)
- Cushing +1.47mm
- Gasoline -151k
- Distillates -2.05mm
Crude stocks rose more than expected last week - the fourth straight weekly build - as Distillates inventories drew down again but the official Gasoline stocks shift was de minimus... Source: Bloomberg For the first time since Nov 2023, there was no addition to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve... US Crude production inched higher... WTI was hovering up near the high of the day around $73 ahead of the print and is holding the gains for now... Trading has calmed after a tumultuous start to the year, with prices locked in a narrow range this month as the market becomes increasingly numb to the array of changes that US President Donald Trump is seeking to implement.
Oil Prices Rise as EU Sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ Uncertainty Weigh on Supply The EU agreed on a 16th sanctions package against Russia, which includes a ban on aluminium imports and additional curbs on Russian vessels Energy – EU Sanctions Russian Vessels Supply uncertainty continues to support the oil market, which faces multiple risks, including disruptions to Kazakh flows, the potential for a delay in the return of OPEC+ barrels, weather events in the US, and ever-present sanctions risks hanging over the market. The concerns pushed ICE Brent back above US$76/bbl yesterday. This week, the market is dealing with supply disruptions in North Dakota due to extremely cold weather. The North Dakota Pipeline Authority said that oil production is down between 120-150k b/d, while natural gas production has also taken a hit. These disruptions will likely last until the weekend when warmer weather is forecast in the region. As for sanctions, the EU agreed to a new sanctions package against Russia. It includes targeting oil exports by sanctioning 73 additional vessels that are part of Russia’s shadow fleet. The EU had sanctioned 79 vessels previously. While similar sanctions from the US on Russia have not led to a significant drop in export volumes, floating storage has increased. This has buyers less willing to accept sanctioned vessels. However, potential restarts of oil flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, and soon, are offsetting these supply risks. There's talk that these flows could resume soon, after being offline since early 2023. A resumption could bring 300k b/d of supply onto the market. This isn’t the first time that there’s been talk of an imminent restart of flows. In addition, it’s unclear how Iraq would manage its OPEC+ production target if these flows were to resume. Overnight, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that crude oil inventories rose by 3.3m barrels over the last week, close to market expectations. Meanwhile, crude stocks at the WTI delivery hub increased by 1.7m barrels, fitting with recent weakness in the prompt WTI timespread. On the product side, gasoline inventories increased by 2.8m barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 2.7m barrels. The widely-followed Energy Information Administration inventory report will be released later today. LME aluminium prices rose above $2,700/t briefly yesterday, for the first time in a month. This followed reports the EU agreed on a sixteenth package of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on primary aluminium imports. Prices later gave up the gains. The package is expected to be adopted by EU foreign ministers on Monday to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This comes as the US conducts talks with Russia on a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine. The US has signalled that sanctions relief could be part of an agreement. The ban on Russian aluminium imports will be phased in a year from the official adoption of the package. Any impact is likely to be limited. Although the EU continues to import Russian aluminium, volumes have fallen, with European buyers self-sanctioning since the invasion of Ukraine. Russia now accounts for around 6% of European imports of primary aluminium, half 2022 levels. The gap left by Russian supplies has mostly been filled by imports from the Middle East, India, and Southeast Asia, and this trend is likely to continue. Meanwhile, more Russian metal has been shipped to China, the world's biggest aluminium consumer. The US and the UK banned the import of metals produced in Russia in 2024. The EU has so far banned aluminium products, including wire, tube, pipe and foil, which account for less than 15% of EU imports. Russia is the world’s largest aluminium producer outside China, accounting for about 5% of global aluminium production.
Oil rises for third day on US fuel stocks draw, worries about Russia disruptions (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Thursday, marking a three-day streak of gains, after data showed gasoline and distillate drawdowns in the U.S., while worries about supply disruptions in Russia also supported prices. Brent futures settled up 44 cents, or 0.58%, at $76.48 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) for March delivery rose 32 cents, or 0.44%, to $72.57. The more-actively traded April WTI contract gained 0.35% to $72.50 a barrel. U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose slightly more than expected while fuel inventories fell last week as seasonal maintenance at refineries led to lower processing, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. "The crude build was a bit larger than expected, but there was a modest draw in gasoline and larger draw in distillate, keeping total inventories flat," Crude futures extended gains slightly following the report. Russia and the U.S. have had their first meeting since the start of the Ukraine war, aimed at restoring relations and preparing the ground for ending the conflict. However, disruptions to oil supply kept prices elevated. Russia attacked Ukrainian gas infrastructure and damaged gas production facilities overnight, Ukraine's Energy Minister German Galushchenko said. Russia said Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30%-40% on Tuesday after a Ukraine drone attack on a pumping station. Elsewhere, potential restarts of oil flows from Iraq's Kurdistan region were offsetting supply risks, analysts at ING said in a note. Turkey, which hosts the port of Ceyhan that loads Iraqi oil from the Kurdistan region, had not received confirmation from Iraq on the resumption as of Thursday, the country's energy minister told Reuters. A resumption of the Iraqi oil flows would add 300,000 barrels of supply per day onto the market, ING analysts said. Import tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump's administration could dent oil prices by raising the cost of consumer goods, analysts said, weakening the global economy and reducing fuel demand. Concerns about European and Chinese demand were also helping keep prices in check. "It is natural to be concerned about the global economic outlook as Donald Trump takes a sledgehammer smashing away at the existing global 'free-trade structure' with signals of 25% tariffs on car imports to the U.S.,"
WTI Slips 2% as Key Support Level Breached - Oil fell after the breach of a key technical level accelerated losses driven by the possibility of increased flows from Iraq, weakening the prospects of supply constraints that have gripped the market recently. West Texas Intermediate slid more than 2% to trade below $71 a barrel, with the drop deepening after prices dipped below their 100-day moving average of about $71.51. The decline puts oil at risk of its fifth straight weekly loss, which would be the longest streak in more than a year. Crude has been trapped in a roughly $5 range for the past three weeks because of an uncertain outlook for supply, including increasing expectations that OPEC+ will delay a planned production increase and a drone attack that threatened Kazakh pipeline flows. At the same time, US President Donald Trump’s rapid-fire tariff actions and other policy decisions have dimmed the outlook for demand and boosted US consumers’ expectations for long-term inflation. OPEC+ postponing its 120,000 barrel-a-day output hike — a move delegates are flagging as a possibility — would mark the fourth time the group delayed plans to revive production halted in 2022. At present, the alliance aims to restore a total of 2.2 million barrels a day in monthly increments, starting in April. “Given prices in the mid-$70s, we continue to anticipate that the producer group postpones the beginning of bringing back withheld oil supply to market,” Citigroup Inc. analysts, including Eric Lee, wrote in a note. “The decision to bring back more oil to market might only come if the US exerts more sanctions pressure on Iran amid potential negotiations.” WTI for April delivery slid 2.6% to $70.63 a barrel at 1:30 p.m. in New York. Brent for April settlement fell 2.4% to $74.67 a barrel.
Oil prices end lower, erasing weekly gains -Oil futures ended with losses Friday, turning lower on the week, as crude continued to struggle to break out of a sideways trading pattern.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for April delivery CL.1 CLJ25 dropped $2.08, or 2.9%, to finish at $70.40 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
- -- April Brent crude BRN00 BRNJ25, the global benchmark, fell $2.05, or 2.7%, to settle at $74.43 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.
- -- Back on Nymex, March gasoline RBH25 declined 2.9% to close at $2.0267 a gallon, while March heating oil HOH25 fell 2.8% to $2.4323 a gallon.
- -- March natural gas NGH25 rose 2% to finish at $4.234 per million British thermal units, leaving it with a 13.7% weekly jump after an Arctic blast boosted demand and served to undercut production.
Friday's slide left both WTI and Brent with a 0.4% weekly decline. Crude has struggled to break out of its recent sideways trading pattern.The rangebound trading "may be due to the fact that a number of decisions are pending that could drive the oil price in one direction or the other,". "These include the possible postponement of the gradual increase in OPEC+ production, which is currently scheduled to begin in April, the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, the possible tightening of U.S. sanctions against Iran, and, last but not least, U.S. President [Donald] Trump's announcement that he wants to quickly rebuild the U.S. strategic reserves," she said.
Oil settles down $2, posting weekly loss as Mideast risk premium fades (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down more than $2 a barrel on Friday, posting a weekly decline as investors grappled with a fading Middle East risk premium alongside uncertainty about a potential peace deal in Ukraine. Brent futures settled down $2.05, or 2.68%, to $74.43 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down $2.08, or 2.87%, to $70.40. Brent closed 0.4% lower on the week, while U.S. crude futures posted a 0.5% weekly loss. The relative calm in the Middle East as the Gaza ceasefire held has reduced risk in the market. Later in the day, analysts also pointed to media reports indicating that researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China said they discovered a new coronavirus in bats. Oil first slipped around $2 a barrel when those reports surfaced, according to analysts. Investors also continued to weigh an uptick in U.S. crude oil stockpiles, reported on Thursday, as seasonal maintenance at refineries led to lower processing, the Energy Information Administration said. U.S. energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a fourth week in a row to the highest level since June, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in a report on Friday. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by four to 592 in the week to February 21. Traders kept an eye on potential oil supply disruptions, however, which capped some losses. Russia said Caspian Pipeline Consortium oil flows, a major route for crude exports from Kazakhstan, were reduced by 30-40% on Tuesday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a pumping station. Oil flows from Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield via CPC are uninterrupted, Russian news agency Interfax reported on Friday, citing Tengizchevroil. Kazakhstan has pumped record high oil volumes despite damage to its CPC export route via Russia, industry sources said on Thursday. It was not immediately clear how Kazakhstan had been able to pump record volumes. The Ukrainian drone attack helped support crude prices this week, said Alex Hodes, analyst at StoneX in a note on Friday, also pointing to analysts' expectation that OPEC+ will delay its production cut once again, in light of crude prices remaining below $80/bbl. Elsewhere, relations between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump deteriorated this week after Zelenskiy criticised U.S. and Russian moves to negotiate a peace deal without Kyiv's involvement. The rift was widened by Trump comments blaming Ukraine for starting the three-year-old conflict. Yet after a meeting with Trump's envoy for the Ukraine conflict on Thursday, Zelenskiy said Ukraine was ready to work quickly to produce a strong agreement with the U.S. on investments and security. "Trump keeps hammering Ukraine and the market is taking that as a potential easing of sanctions on Russia, and Russian oil flows coming back to the market,"
CENTCOM: Five ISIS Fighters Killed by US-Backed Airstrike in Iraq - US Central Command said in a press release on Saturday that its forces backed an airstrike near Rawa, Iraq, that was launched by Iraqi Security Forces on February 12.The command claimed the strike killed five ISIS fighters and said its “initial post-strike clearance confirmed the dead ISIS operatives, various medium and small caliber weapons, grenades, suicide explosive belts, and ammunition.”The attack marks the third time CENTCOM said it backed an airstrike launched by the Iraqi government since President Trump took office on January 20. The last strike occurred on February 12 near Kirkuk, whichCENTCOM claimed killed two ISIS operatives.The US has continued military operations against ISIS in Iraq in recent years despite the government repeatedly saying it doesn’t need the US’s help against ISIS remnants. In 2024, Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani called for the withdrawal of US and other foreign troops, and Washington and Baghdad entered talks about the US presence.Those talks resulted in the US and Iraq announcing a deal to officially end the mission of the US-led anti-ISIS coalition by September 2025, but it said the US will remain in Iraq under a “bilateral partnership.” The Pentagon said at the time that the US was “not withdrawing from Iraq.”
Tehran Hits Back at Netanyahu's Threat To 'Finish the Job' Against Iran - The Iranian Foreign Ministry on Monday hit back at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for threatening that the US and Israel will “finish the job” against Iran. “Threatening others is both a gross violation of international law and the United Nations Charter,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei. He added that the US and Israel could “not do a damn thing” against Iran. Referring to President Trump’s calls for a deal with Iran, Baghaei said, “You cannot threaten Iran on one hand and claim to support dialogue on the other hand.” Trump has also increased sanctions on Iran by reinstating his so-called “maximum pressure campaign.” Netanyahu made the threat against Iran while hosting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jerusalem on Sunday.“Over the last 16 months, Israel has dealt a mighty blow to Iran’s terror axis. Under the strong leadership of President Trump and with your unflinching support, I have no doubt that we can and will finish the job,” Netanyahu said.Rubio also took aim at Iran in his remarks to the press, claiming the Islamic Republic was the “single greatest source of instability in the region.”The threat from Netanyahu came after a report from The Washington Post said the US expects Israel to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months.The report, which cited US intelligence, said the idea would be to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities even though there’s no evidence Tehran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. President Trump even recently acknowledged that Iranian leadership doesn’t want a nuclear bomb.Iran is also a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which Israel refuses to sign due to its secret nuclear weapons program that the US doesn’t officially acknowledge.
Zelensky Says Ukraine Will 'Not Recognize' Upcoming US-Russia Talks - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Monday that Ukraine will “not recognize” upcoming talks between the US and Russia and denied that his country was invited to participate. “Ukraine will not accept. Ukraine knew nothing about this. And Ukraine regards any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no results,” Zelensky told reporters while visiting the UAE. The Kremlin has confirmed the peace talks with the US will be held in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. The negotiations will involve high-level Russian and American officials, including Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Zelensky denied claims from US officials that Ukraine was invited. “Ukraine will not take part in the negotiations. Ukraine did not know they were planned. And the visit to the region was planned long before the US decided to meet Russia there,” he said. Rubio arrived in Saudi Arabia on Monday, and he is expected to be joined by US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy who has been involved in some diplomacy with Russia. Lavrov will be joined by Yury Ushakov, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Zelensky has said that European countries should be involved in the talks, but that idea has been rejected by both the US and Russia. Lavrov said Monday that most European leaders aren’t interested in peace. “I don’t know what they could do at the negotiating table. If their aim is to cunningly extract a deceptive truce while secretly preparing for continued war—true to their habits and nature—then why invite them at all?” Lavrov said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. While it’s still unclear how the war will end, the Trump administration’s policy toward Russia is a dramatic shift from the Biden administration, which essentially cut off high-level contacts with Moscow after the Russian invasion of Ukraine despite the risk of nuclear war.
Hamas Releases Three Hostages But Trump Restates Demand To Release All of Them - Following the release of three hostages, including one with an American, President Donald Trump restated his demand that all Israeli captives must be released from Gaza today.“Hamas has just released three Hostages from GAZA, including an American Citizen. They seem to be in good shape! This differs from their statement last week that they would not release any Hostages,” The presidentwrote on his Truth Social account.The post continued, “Israel will now have to decide what they will do about the 12:00 O’CLOCK, TODAY, DEADLINE imposed on the release of ALL HOSTAGES. The United States will back the decision they make!”Tel Aviv may view Trump’s post as a greenlight to break the ceasefire and resume its onslaught in Gaza. Israeli army chief Herzi Halevi said Saturday that it is his “duty to bring everyone back,” and the IDF is “investing in many efforts for this purpose, and at the same time, we are preparing offensive plans.” Trump is restating a threat he made on Monday. “If all the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock, I think it’s an appropriate time. I would say cancel it, and all bets are off. Let hell break out,” he said. Trump issued the threat after Hamas said it would display the hostage release scheduled for February 15 because Israel was not abiding by the ceasefire agreement. Since the deal went into effect on January 19, Israel has killed around 100 Palestinians in Gaza. Additionally, Tel Aviv is not letting in the amount of aid that was promised under the deal.Construction equipment to begin clearing debris, mobile homes, and tents were all pledged to be allowed into Gaza during the ceasefire and hostage deal. However, Israeli officials speaking with the New York Timesconfirmed that Tel Aviv was not living up to its end of the deal.On Thursday, Hamas walked back its plan to withhold future hostage releases until Israel complies with the deal.While it was Trump’s envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff that pushed the hostage exchange and ceasefire deal across the finish line, Israel is now failing to comply with the agreement and Hamas is continuing to release hostages.It is unclear why Trump set Saturday as the deadline to release all hostages. Under the deal, captives on both sides were agreed to be released slowly over the first two phases of the agreement that would take several months.Last week, Trump appeared disturbed over the gaunt look of the Israeli hostages that were released by Hamas. While the American media and political class has focused on the status of the Israeli hostages, Palestinians detainees have also been released in ill health, and have additionally been subjected to severe beating. One released Palestinian told Al-Jazeera, “The Israelis told us to ‘Welcome to hell.’ It was a hell,” he said. “From the first day, we were beaten badly. The beatings were brutal, tough and unbearable.”Israel has also harassed the freed Palestinians and their families. Shortly after the release on Saturday, Israeli forces raided the homes of one of the freed men.
Report: Netanyahu Adds New Demands in Talks on Second Phase of Gaza Deal -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has added several new demands amid negotiations for the second of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, Israel’s Channel 13 has reported.The report said Netanyahu is demanding Hamas leadership be exiled, for Gaza to be demilitarized, and for Israel to continue maintaining “security control” of the Strip, which would mean a continued Israeli military occupation or blockade. Hamas has rejected Israeli calls for the group to be disarmed, and its main demand has been for an Israeli withdrawal, meaning it would be unlikely to agree to an arrangement that keeps Israeli troops in Gaza. On Wednesday, Hamas offered to release all remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal.Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s envoy for the Middle East, acknowledged on Thursday that it would be “difficult” for the second phase of the ceasefire to be implemented but said it was a possibility.“The issue with [phase] two is that there’s supposed to be an end to the war, and the Israelis have a red line that Hamas cannot be in the government,” Witkoff said. “It’s hard to square that circle, but we’re making a lot of progress in that conversation, and hopefully it leads to good things and good results.”Witkoff also defended Trump’s calls for the US to “take over” Gaza, which would require an ethnic cleansing campaign since Palestinians don’t want to leave despite the massive destruction caused by the US-backed Israeli siege and bombing campaign.“I sat in Gaza with a bulletproof vest looking at the scenery, and I don’t know why anyone would want to live there today. It’s illogical to me,” Witkoff said.The Trump administration has also backed Netanyahu’s stated goal of “eradicating” Hamas, signaling the US is ready to support Israel if it decides to restart its genocidal war on Gaza. In the meantime, the hostage exchanges continue as Hamas released four bodies of Israeli captives, including the remains of the Bibas brothers, who were only nine months and four years old when kidnapped during the October 7 attack on southern Israel. Hamas has maintained that the children and their mother were killed by an Israeli airstrike in Gaza in November 2023.Hamas is expected to release six live Israeli hostages on Saturday, and Israel will free hundreds of Palestinians from Israeli jails, including many women and children who were captured in Gaza following October 7 despite having nothing to do with the attack.
Netanyahu Orders West Bank Escalation After Empty Buses Explode in Israel -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered a massive escalation in the Israeli-occupied West Bank after three empty buses exploded in the Israeli city of Bat Yam near Tel Aviv, The Times of Israel reported on Thursday.“The Prime Minister has ordered the IDF to carry out an intensive operation against centers of terrorism in Judea and Samaria,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement, using the biblical name for the West Bank. The buses that exploded were empty and in separate parking lots, and Israeli police said two additional unexploded bombs were found. No one was wounded or injured in the blasts. Israeli police say they’re treating the incident as a “suspected terrorist attack,” and Israeli officials are claiming the blasts are tied to the West Bank, although so far, no Palestinian group has taken credit for the bombing. On January 21, Israel launched a new operation in the West Bank dubbed “Iron Wall” that has focused on the northern cities of Tulkarm and Jenin and their refugee camps. Dozens of Palestinians have been killed, and tens of thousands have been forcibly evacuated from their homes, the most significant displacement in the territory since 1967. The Israeli military has expanded its “open fire orders” in the West Bank, leading to a surge in the killing of Israeli civilians by IDF troops. Among those killed in the recent operations have included a pregnant woman, a two-year-old girl, and a seven-year-old boy. Netanyahu’s order suggests the Israeli assault on the occupied West Bank will intensify even more. The bus explosions also risk the fragile ceasefire deal in Gaza as elements of the Israeli government are looking for excuses to restart the genocidal war.
Israel Has Violated Gaza Ceasefire 266 Times, Killing 132 Palestinians - Israel has violated the Gaza ceasefire 266 times and has killed 132 Palestinians since the truce went into effect on January 19, Al Jazeera reported on Tuesday, citing Palestinian security sources.Out of the 132 people who were killed, 26 succumbed to wounds received during Israeli attacks. Over 900 Palestinians have also been injured by Israeli gunfire and airstrikes.In many cases, the Israeli military acknowledged its forces fired on Palestinians simply because they were approaching IDF troops. Due to the Israeli military’s open-fire policy, an unarmed Israeli civilian contractor was also killed. The Palestinian security sources said other ceasefire violations have included strikes on vehicles headed to north Gaza, attacks on bulldozers working to clear the rubble, and gunfire on civilians attempting to return to their homes.Al Jazeera also reported that Israeli gunfire killed a child in Rafah, southern Gaza, on Tuesday, and another was wounded by an Israeli attack in Gaza City. It’s unclear if the latest violence was included in the total casualty count.Despite the Israeli ceasefire violations, Hamas is still going through with hostage releases and announced Tuesday that it would be releasing six living and four dead Israeli hostages this week.Hamas said that in exchange, Israel agreed to allow mobile homes and construction vehicles into Gaza. The fact that Israel had been blocking such equipment is also a ceasefire violation since it made a commitment to allow the aid to enter Gaza under the initial ceasefire and hostage deal.
Israel Continues To Block Entry of Temporary Housing into Gaza in Violation of Ceasefire Deal - Israel has continued to block the entry of temporary housing into the Gaza Strip despite agreeing to allow the deliveries as part of the hostage and ceasefire deal, Middle East Eye reported on Monday.Under the deal, Israel agreed to allow 200,000 tents and 60,000 mobile homes in Gaza, but so far, only 20,000 tents have entered, and no mobile homes have been allowed in. Tens of thousands of mobile homes are stuck at the Rafah crossing in Egypt.The Times of Israel reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not given approval for the entry of mobile homes and construction equipment needed to clear the rubble. The report acknowledged that the movewas a “potential breach of the ceasefire.”According to Al Jazeera, a spokesman for Netanyahu admitted Israel was blocking the entry of the mobile homes, saying Israel would use “any leverage” it has to ensure Hamas releases hostages under the first phase of the ceasefire deal. But the strategy may backfire since Hamas threatened to postpone Saturday’s hostage release over Israel’s ceasefire violations.Palestinians in Gaza told Al Jazeera that mobile homes were needed due to the conditions of their tents. “Tents are flooded with rain and sewerage water. We are soaked in waste water. Our children are getting sick. Those readymade homes would solve some of our many problems,” said Umm Mohammed Selemy, a resident of north Gaza.Israeli forces have also continued to bomb and shoot Palestinians in Gaza despite the ceasefire deal, killing around 100 since the truce went into effect on January 19. The Israeli military said on Monday that its fighter jets targeted a vehicle traveling from north Gaza to central Gaza, claiming it was “on a route not approved for vehicle traffic.”A day earlier, an Israeli drone strike killed three police officers near the southern city of Rafah. Gaza’s Health Ministry said the officers were in the area to secure aid shipments.
Israel Pushes New Atrocity Narrative Just As Ceasefire Deadline Approaches -Caitlin Johnstone -- A new narrative is being aggressively pushed by Israel and its apologists to justify resuming the Gaza genocide, conveniently just as an important deadline for ceasefire negotiations draws near.The IDF is now claiming that the Israeli children Kfir and Ariel Bibas “were both brutally murdered by terrorists while being held hostage in Gaza, no later than November 2023.”IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari told the press on Friday that, “Contrary to Hamas’ lies, Ariel and Kfir were not killed in an airstrike. Ariel and Kfir Bibas were murdered by terrorists in cold blood. The terrorists did not shoot the two young boys, they killed them with their bare hands. Afterward, they committed horrific acts to cover up these atrocities.”Anyone who has been following the events in Gaza over the last year and a half will be unsurprised to learn that Israel provided no evidence to support these incendiary claims. Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement in his signature American English waving around an enlarged photograph of the children and talking about what savage monsters the Palestinians are. “Hamas murdered them in cold blood,” Netanyahu says, while the camera zooms in on the adorable little redheads. “As the prime minister of Israel, I vow that I will not rest until the savages who executed our hostages are brought to justice. They do not deserve to walk this earth. Nothing will stop me. Nothing.”This happens just as Netanyahu has been working to sabotage ceasefire negotiations by adding new non-starter demands that were not in the original agreement, just as sources in Israeli media predicted he would do upon his return from Washington earlier this month. The six-week-long first stage of the ceasefire deal with Hamas is set to expire at the beginning of March.This is obvious babies-on-bayonets atrocity propaganda, being released at the most convenient of times. After Israel has been caught lying about beheaded babies and mass rapes and so much more, only an idiot would take any of these claims on faith.
Israeli Soldiers in Gaza Used 80-Year-Old as Human Shield Before Killing Him and His Wife - A senior Israeli officer in Gaza tied an explosive around the neck of an 80-year-old Palestinian man to force him to act as a human shield, and the man and his wife were later killed by Israeli soldiers, the Israeli media outlet The Hottest Place in Hell has reported.Israeli soldiers present at the scene told the media outlet that the incident occurred in May 2024 in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood. Israeli soldiers found the elderly couple in their home, who said they didn’t evacuate due to mobility issues.“They said they had nowhere to run and that they couldn’t evacuate to Khan Younis. The man was walking with a cane, and they said they simply wouldn’t be able to walk all the way there,” one of the soldiers said.The Israeli soldiers then separated the man from his wife and tied an explosive to him, threatening that his head would be blown off if he tried to run away even though he had a cane.“They explained to him that if he did something wrong or not as we wanted, the person behind him would pull the rope, and his head would be severed from his body. He walked around with us like that for eight hours, even though he was an 80-year-old man and even though he couldn’t escape us,” one soldier said.After eight hours of checking for explosives, the man was returned to his wife. Then, Israeli soldiers ordered the elderly couple to evacuate to the south on foot. The report said the soldiers didn’t inform other nearby battalions that the elderly couple was heading south, and after only walking for 100 meters, they were shot and killed. “After a hundred meters, the second battalion saw them and shot them on the spot. They died like that, in the street,” a soldier said. Israeli media has previously revealed that the IDF had an “open fire” policy in many areas of Gaza, meaning any Palestinian who entered it would be shot even if they were unarmed civilians, or in this case, elderly people walking with a cane. Haaretz has reported that unarmed civilians who were killed would be counted as “terrorists.” The practice of using Palestinian civilians as human shields became widespread in Gaza, so much so that the Israelis gave it a name. Palestinians detained in Gaza and used as human shields are called “mosquitos,” while Palestinians brought in from Israel for that purpose are called “wasps.” The Hottest Place in Hell referred to the use of the 80-year-old man as a human shield as the “Mosquito Procedure.”While the IDF claims it doesn’t allow the use of Palestinian civilians as human shields, a soldier said it has become official policy. “The Mosquito Procedure is fully institutionalized, and it’s a very gray area within the army,” a soldier said. “It’s something that comes down as an explicit order from the battalion commander level and below. But somewhere at the brigade commander level, they completely deny it. When problems start, they push the responsibility downward and say not to do it.”
Israel Confirms Troops Will Remain at Southern Lebanon Sites After Deadline - It is just one day from the extended deadline for Israel to withdraw its military from Lebanon. Israel is preparing to do something presented as withdrawal but which would more correctly be presented as continuing to occupy Lebanese soil.Israeli officials suggest they’re going to withdraw from the towns and villages they currently occupy and in which they’ve carried out systematic demolition of civilian homes for months. They are being very clear thatthey’ll continue to hold five hilltop surveillance posts inside Lebanon though, and troops will remain there despite what is being broadly called a “full withdrawal.”Israeli military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani says that the US has approved this idea as a “temporary measure.” However, as no end date is specified, how temporary this actually might be remains entirely unknown.Other unknown aspects of a continued occupation include, particularly, how Hezbollah will react. They expressed impatience at Israel remaining for weeks now but didn’t attack occupation forces during the ceasefire. They did, however, press the new Lebanese government to ensure Israel comply with the withdrawal deadline, and now that it’s clear Israel plainly will not do so, there’s going to be pressure within Hezbollah to do something.Also unclear is whether Israel will change its policy of shooting civilians trying to return home to southern Lebanon. Israeli troops shot and killed dozens of people trying to go home during the ceasefire, and while they said the ban on returning remains “indefinitely,” they have not said anything new in recent days.An Israeli drone attacked and killed a Hamas member in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon today as well. This raises the question of whether or not, post-ceasefire, Israel will make fewer attacks on Lebanon. The attack on Sidon almost certainly violated the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire and might well violate the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Gaza as well. It’s merely one of many violations though, as Israel has committed hundreds of violations in Lebanon since the ceasefire went into effect in late November.Adding to concerns about the post-ceasefire but not post-occupation border, Israel is reportedly going to triple the number of troops on the border with Lebanon. While some military buildup may be seen as an attempt to convince displaced Israelis it is safe to return north, the inevitable concern is that this is really a stopgap before the next Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
Three hundred people a day die living in poverty in Britain -- Britain’s leading end of life charity, Marie Curie paints a terrible picture of over 100,000 people in the UK dying in poverty every year. The report, “Dying in Poverty 2024”, centres on data collated from the year 2023 carried out by academic researchers at Loughborough University’s Centre for Research in Social Policy. In 2021, the Marie Curie charity first commissioned the research team to examine the number of people who die in poverty in the UK that led to a landmark report, “Dying in Poverty in 2022”. The current research has been updated and includes analysis as to those in the study who are experiencing fuel poverty. The latest data for the year 2023 estimates that 110,000 people (300 a day) died in poverty in the UK—representing 18 percent of all those that died in that year—and an increase of almost 20,000 people and 2.5 percentage points since 2019. The data shows sharp disparities in those affected based on race, gender, age and where in the UK somebody lives. People of working age are at much greater risk of dying in poverty, with 28 percent of people dying in poverty compared to 16 percent of people of pensioner age. The vast majority of the working aged population who die have also experienced poverty at some point in the last five years of their lives. Women are more likely to die in poverty than men and, in the year 2023, 29.5 percent of working age women died in poverty, compared to 25.4 percent of men. Ethnic minority groups are more likely to be in poverty, often having experienced poverty throughout their lives. Poverty rates amongst Bangladeshi households are estimated to be as high as 53 percent, with these households relying on benefits (other than the state pension) representing 20 percent of their income compared to 7 percent of white households. Based on ethnicity, 25 percent of white working aged people between ages 20-64 died in poverty compared to a staggering 47 percent of black people, 43 percent of Asian people and 37 percent of those of mixed race or having another ethnicity. A major contributory factor for those of working age who are terminally ill is the loss of income, often having to reduce working hours or leave work all together. This impacts other people living in the same household who may have to reduce their working hours or leave work to become carers. A rise in poverty at the end of life is also determined by the person’s age. State pensioner benefits are normally paid at a higher rate than out of work state benefits to someone under state pension age. For those claimants of working age who become unwell and must claim Universal Credit or New Style Employment Support Allowance there can be a number of financial disadvantages. Marie Curie have suggested that for those with less than a year to live who are under the state pension age, benefits should be paid as an entitlement, equivalent to the state pension. The costs to the Treasury would be minimal, accounting for only 0.1 percent of overall state pension spending. At present thousands of people are dying without claiming their state pension they have contributed to throughout their lives.
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