Future of the Fed’s Balance Sheet: Fed’s Logan on How Assets Might Shift from Longer-Term Securities to Short-Term T-Bills, Repos, and Loans after QT Ends. MBS Entirely Off the List -- by Wolf Richter -- Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan – a leading voice on the nuts and bolts of the Fed’s balance sheet due to her prior job as head of the New York Fed’s System Open Market Account (SOMA) which handles the Fed’s securities portfolio – gave another interesting and long speech on the nuts-and-bolts of central bank balance sheets. Most of the speech was dedicated to the nuts and bolts of balance sheet liabilities, primarily reserves. But at the end, she discussed assets – and how the Fed might change the composition of its assets after QT ends.She had previously discussed this in more general terms, so we already could see the direction the Fed might be going with its balance sheet composition in the future after QT ends. But today, she discussed more of the nuts and bolts.T-bills to take a greater share of Treasury holdings, to replace longer-term Treasury notes and bonds, to bring the Fed’s mix of Treasuries roughly in line with the mix of outstanding Treasuries. This would start after QT ends. The minutes of the January FOMC meeting show the Fed discussed this and that “many” participants favored this move.The Fed currently holds only $195 billion in T-bills, or 4.6% of its total Treasury holdings of $4.27 trillion. But of the total marketable Treasury securities outstanding, 22.5% are T-bills.“At present, the Fed’s portfolio is significantly overweight longer-term securities and underweight Treasury bills,” Logan said in her speech today. So after QT ends in the future and the Fed begins replacing all maturing Treasuries, “it would make sense in the medium term to overweight purchases of shorter-dated securities so as to more promptly return the Fed’s holdings to a neutral allocation.”A “neutral allocation” would mean bringing T-bills up to a share of about 22.5% of its total Treasury holdings (assuming that ratio of T-bills to total Treasuries outstanding remains at 22.5% over the years), from 4.6% today, and reducing notes and bonds to a share of 77.5%, from 95.4% today.To get this neutral allocation “more promptly,” the Fed would heavily favor T-bills over notes and bonds until it gets to the neutral allocation.This would be a reverse Operation Twist. The classic Operation Twist was last used by the Fed in 2011, when it replaced T-bills with longer-term notes and bonds specifically to push down long-term yields as part of its interest-rate repression policy.The move laid out by Logan today would be the opposite, shedding longer-term notes and bonds, and replacing them with T-bills. In theory, this would add some mild upward pressure on longer-term yields. MBS are off the list entirely. Currently, MBS are the second largest asset on the Fed’s balance sheet, with a balance of $2.2 trillion [here is my discussion of the Fed’s QT through January].Logan reiterated that in the future after QT ends, the Fed intends to hold “primarily Treasury securities” as assets, which the Fed has been saying for a year. Today, she explained explicitly what that meant: MBS are off the list of assets that the Fed intends to keep. And a “modest” share of loans and repos are on the list and would replace some Treasury securities.This is the future list of assets as she spelled it out today:
- “Primarily Treasury securities,” so the big bulk of its assets
- Loans to the banking system, such as the classic Discount Window (the Fed is working on improving the system that Powell had called “clunky”). Currently $3 billion.
- Repos, in three ways:
- Through the Standing Repo Facility (SRF), which Fed had revived in July 2021, after having shut it down in 2009 as QE had made it useless. Currently $0 balance.
- Foreign and International Monetary Authorities Repo Facility, with which the Fed lends to other central banks. Currently $0 balance.
- Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk’s repo operations, which it used in September 2019 when the repo market blew out and there was no SRF; and then again in March-June 2020.
Getting rid of MBS entirely might slightly widen the spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield, and would therefore lead to slightly higher mortgage rates than otherwise, the opposite effect of buying MBS whose purpose was to repress mortgage rates.
Small inflation uptick leaves Fed waiting for signal to move – The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed continued progress toward the central bank's 2% goal, but likely not enough to trigger a rate cut next month. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation index showed little progress toward its target of 2%, increasing the likelihood of a prolonged rate pause.
Trump dials back Fed-bashing, seeks a different kind of rate cut -- As President Donald Trump lashes out at government agencies across Washington, one of his favorite first-term targets — the Federal Reserve — has been getting a relatively easy ride. Notably, Trump described the January decision to hold rates steady – which looks set to be the Fed's stance for some time — as "the right thing to do."
Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries - From housing economist Tom Lawler: Treasury Secretary Wrongly Says Fed Has Been “Big Seller” of Treasuries In an interview last week, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that any plans by the Treasury to extend the maturity were “a long ways off.” One of the reasons cited by Secretary Bessent was the Federal Reserve’s current balance sheet runoff policy. Here is a quote from Bessent. “The Fed’s balance sheet runoff increases the supply of Treasuries. It’s easier for me to extend duration when I’m not competing with another big seller.” This statement appears to reflect Bessent’s complete misunderstanding of how the Federal Reserve has implemented its balance sheet runoff. Rather than being a “big seller” of intermediate and long term Treasury securities, the Fed has actually been a pretty big buyer of intermediate and long term Treasury securities even as it has lowered the overall size of its balance sheet. The Federal Reserve owns a sizable amount of Treasuries, including a significant amount that matures in a short period of time. What the Fed has been doing is essentially targeting a desired decline in its overall balance sheet, and reinvesting a portion of the sizable amount of Treasuries maturing (and MBS principal repayments) into Treasury bills (short maturities) and Treasury notes and bonds (long maturities), TIPS (long maturities), and a de minimus amount of Floating Rate Notes in order to hit a targeted total balance. The replacement of some of the maturing notes and bonds (which by definition have very short maturities) into new longer-maturity notes and bonds extends the maturity of Federal Reserve Treasury note and bond holdings. Here is a table showing the Fed’s System Open Market Account’s (SOMA) purchases, sales, and maturities (from the Fed’s quarterly financial statement) As this table shows, even during the period where the Fed has reduced its balance sheet (a period some call “quantitative tightening,” though that is something of a misnomer), the Fed has been a significant net buyer of Treasury notes and bonds – and overall sales have been very small. At the end of 2024, SOMA held $184.8 BILLION of Treasury notes and bonds (ex TIPS) that were not on its balance sheet at the end of 2023, with a weighted average maturity at the end of 2014 of 8.11 years, as well as 3.49 BILLION of TIPS not on its balance sheet a year earlier with a weighted average maturity of 10.52 years. The Treasury’s purchases of Treasury notes and bond has continued this year. Below is a table showing SOMA’s purchases of Treasury notes and bonds at this year’s Treasury note and bond auctions. vThe 3, 10, and 30 year SOMA purchases were especially noticeable, in that (1) SOMA owns a sizable 21.55% of the latest issued 3, 10, and 30 Treasury year securities, and (2) the sizable Fed purchases at these auctions was only about a week before Bessent’s incorrect comment that the Fed has been a “big seller” of Treasuries. On January 31, 2025 the weighted average maturity of marketable Treasury securities outstanding was 5.88 years, while the weighted average maturity of SOMA Treasury securities holdings on February 19, 2025 was a staggering 8.97 years. In terms of why I think the term “quantitative tightening” [is a misnomer] to describe the last few years, it’s useful to remember what quantitative easing entailed: not just expanding the size of the Fed’s balance sheet, but also purchasing huge amounts of long-term Treasuries (and agency MBS) that were in large part designed to lower long-term interest rates (including term premiums). A quantitative tightening designed to offset part of the quantitative easing would have involved selling long-term Treasuries (and MBS) in order to allow for term premiums to return to a more normal level. That, of course, is NOT what the Fed has done. Indeed, Fed actions since the so-called “QT” period began has actually resulted in a slight decline in the weighted average maturity of marketable Treasuries held by the public. As such, while the Federal Reserve has in fact significantly reduced the size of its balance sheet, its overall strategy still seems to be that of keeping longer-term interest rates lower than they would other be. That, of course, is why I would not characterize the latest period of Federal Reserve balance sheet shrinkage as quantitative tightening, and it is most certainly the case that this recent period has in any way reversed the previous quantitative easing. Note The Fed currently only owns about 3% of Treasury Bills outstanding but owns about 30% of Treasury notes and bonds (ex TIPS) with a maturity greater than 10 years.
Next Up: When the Fed decides to stop reducing its balance sheet, will the Fed’s purchases of longer-term Treasuries decline? (Hint: Read the latest FOMC minutes).
Q4 GDP Growth Unrevised at 2.3% Annual Rate - From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2024 (Second Estimate): Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 (October, November, and December), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent. The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased. ... Real GDP was revised up by less than 0.1 percentage point from the advance estimate released last month, primarily reflecting upward revisions to government spending and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to consumer spending and investment.Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates. PCE growth was unrevised at 4.2%. Residential investment was revised up from 5.3% to 5.4%.
Conference Board: “Pessimism about the future returned” – Menzie Chinn - Conference Board index at 98.3 vs. 102.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 105.3. Here is a picture of (standardized) U.Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board and Gallup Confidence measures. Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence Index (blue), Gallup Confidence (green), all demeaned and divided by standard deviation 2021M01-2025m02. Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations. The three month change in the confidence index is about 1.5 standard deviations from the mean over this period. To summarize the movements in all three series, I extract the first principal component of the series: Figure 2: First principal component of U.Michigan Economic Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence Index, Gallup Confidence (black). Source: UMichigan, Gallup, Conference Board, and author’s calculations. Any post-election bounce has disappeared. The drop in expectations 6 months ahead in the Confidence Board index is of particular interest. From the Conference Board today: Pessimism about the future returned. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® declined by 7.0 points in February to 98.3 (1985=100). The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—fell 3.4 points to 136.5. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions— dropped 9.3 points to 72.9. For the first time since June 2024, the Expectations Index was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was February 19, 2025. Here’s a graph of the current vs expectations components. I find remarkable the elevated levels that individuals ascribe to recession probabilities. That said, I guess it’s best to consider the changes in the likelihood. In this case the likelihood has risen from 64% to over 67%.
Atlanta Fed predicts negative 1.5 percent GDP growth in first quarter - The Atlanta Federal Reserve is projecting a contraction of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, flashing a warning sign for the U.S. economy. The projection is a significant shift for the Atlanta Fed over the last few weeks that comes a little more than a month after President Trump took office. The Atlanta Fed last week was predicting 2.3 percent positive growth for the first quarter. A month ago, it was registering 3.9 percent growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow measure is not an official forecast but rather a running estimate of real GDP growth based on data as it comes in. The first quarter ends at the end of March, and GDP will be officially calculated by the Commerce Department. But the forward-looking indicator’s major drop will still be of significant concern to policymakers, economists and markets alike, especially as fourth-quarter GDP registered a strong second estimate this week. January inflation eases in Fed's preferred measure GDP from October to December came in at a healthy annualized rate of 2.3 percent, as reported by the Commerce Department on Thursday. Third-quarter growth came in at a robust 3.1 percent, and second-quarter growth came in at 3 percent. But some warning signs for the economy have been appearing in recent weeks amid macroeconomic policy uncertainties and rising inflation. Inflation as measured in the Federal Reserve’s preferred personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index came in at 2.5 percent annual growth on Friday, dipping by just a tenth of a percentage point after rising throughout the fall. Personal expenditures decreased $30.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, in that report. The consumer price index (CPI) has increased from a 2.4 percent annual increase in September to 3 percent increase in January, causing the Fed to pump the brakes on its stimulative interest rate cuts after starting them in September with a sizable half-percentage point cut. Consumer sentiment also fell off a cliff in January as measured by the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, dropping nearly 10 percent from January. Perhaps of more concern for economists, consumer expectations for year-ahead inflation popped to their highest levels since November 2023, rising to 4.3 percent for next January from 3.3 percent in December. Businesses have also been expressing some frustration over a lack of economic policy certainty from the new Trump administration, which has announced and then canceled new tariffs on several occasions, potentially rattling business investment. “There is early evidence that current policy uncertainty is impacting consumer and business confidence,” analysts for Deutsche Bank wrote in a Thursday note to investors. “These early signs of weakening confidence could lead the U.S. administration to adopt a more considerate approach to spending cuts and tariffs. Alternatively, the current policy sequencing may result in the market pricing a heightened risk of recession first,” they added. A majority of CEOs polled last year by accounting firm PwC saw a recession coming within six months of October 2024.
Housing Starts and Recessions -- This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. “.. Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts, and the only question is timing.” Housing is the basis of one of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting. And policy changes will clearly have a negative impact on homebuilders. Early in February, I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I prefer single family starts to total starts). The purpose of this graph is to show that these three indicators generally reach peaks and troughs together. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. The arrows point to some of the earlier peaks and troughs for these three measures - and the most recent peak. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. Then new home sales and single-family starts turned down in 2021, but that was partly due to the huge surge in sales during the pandemic. In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates. This decline in residential investment would typically have suggested that a recession was coming, however I looked past the pandemic distortions and correctly predicted no recession! The low level of existing home inventory led me to predict that new home sales would pick up - and that happened. We can't be a slave to any model. This second graph shows the YoY change in New Home Sales from the Census Bureau. Currently new home sales (based on 3-month average) are down 1% year-over-year! Usually when the YoY change in New Home Sales falls about 20%, a recession will follow. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020. I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion. Also note that the sharp decline in 2010 was related to the housing tax credit policy in 2009 - and was just a continuation of the housing bust. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. But as I noted earlier, I was able to look past the pandemic distortion and was able to predict a pickup in new home sales due to the low level of existing home inventory and because homebuilders could offer mortgage incentives that would somewhat offset the sharp increase in mortgage rates. Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales. This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the January 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight." Heavy truck sales were at 534 thousand SAAR in January, up from 454 thousand in December, and up 4.6% from 510 thousand SAAR in January 2025. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, however sales were strong in January. I share BESPOKE's concern about the potential negative impact of policy on housing starts, but I think it is way too early to start predicting a recession.
House Rules Committee advances budget resolution as path forward remains uncertain - The House Rules Committee voted Monday to advance the GOP conference’s plan to pass President Trump’s legislative agenda, sending the budget resolution to the full chamber even as its fate on the floor remains uncertain. The panel voted 9-4 along party lines to adopt the rule, which governs debate on the legislation. The successful vote allows the measure to advance to the floor for debate and a final vote. It remains unclear, however, when the full chamber will weigh in on the legislation, with a number of Republicans across the political spectrum — including moderates and deficit hawks — withholding their support from the measure. Asked on Monday night if the chamber would vote on the legislation Tuesday, which some had anticipated, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) responded, “We’ll see.” “We got a lot of meetings tonight, and we’ll see about the timing, but it’ll happen this week,” he added. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), meanwhile, was more firm, telling The Hill later Monday evening the vote is “supposed to be after 6” on Tuesday. Asked if that was still the plan, he responded, “Yeah.” As of Monday night, however, Johnson did not have the votes to adopt the measure, raising the possibility of a delayed — or unsuccessful — vote. Republicans can only afford to lose one vote and still adopt the measure when it hits the floor, assuming full attendance and complete Democratic opposition. The budget resolution — which the House Budget Committee advanced earlier this month — lays out a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees with a target of $2 trillion, puts a $4.5 trillion ceiling on the deficit impact of any GOP plan to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and includes $300 billion in additional spending for the border and defense and a $4 trillion debt limit increase. Republicans are hoping to adopt the budget resolution to unlock the budget reconciliation process, which they are looking to use to pass one sprawling bill full of Trump’s domestic policy priorities — including border funding, energy policy and extending tax cuts. If successful, the budgetary process allows Republicans to circumvent Democratic opposition in the Senate. In one corner, deficit hawks are frustrated with the level of spending cuts in the measure. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) said she is “a NO on the current version” of the resolution, and Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told reporters he felt the same way, though Burchett said he could flip his stance if he receives assurances that the conference will slash federal spending in the future. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), meanwhile, wrote on X on Monday “If the Republican budget passes, the deficit gets worse, not better,” signaling that he was opposed to the legislation. And Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who voted to advance the resolution out of the Budget Committee earlier this month, wrote on X on Sunday that he was “open to supporting [the budget resolution] going forward” but signaled that he may have some qualms. “I supported it in committee – and am open to supporting it going forward – as a framework to see how much Republicans are willing to finally deliver. But statements by some of my colleagues (House & Senate) leave that in doubt,” Roy wrote. Meanwhile, on the other end of the political spectrum are a growing number of moderate Republicans — including some swing-district lawmakers — concerned about potential cuts to Medicaid. The package directs the Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid, to find at least $880 billion in cuts, a figure that many lawmakers believe is only feasible with significant slashes made to the social safety net program. That notion, however, is prompting worries among moderates. “I wanna make sure we get to a point where we protect the most vulnerable covered, right now specifically in Medicaid, and there are other issues in there that we need to address as well,” Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Calif.), who represents a purple district, told reporters. “We’re having more meetings, so this is helping, and that’s what I told the Speaker right now,” he added. “All these conversations are helping us get to a place where we want to be obviously supportive of what the president wants and what we as a conference ran on and we won, and we want to make sure that we’re fiscally responsible, we do the appropriate things, root out the waste, the abuse and the fraud in many cases, while protecting the most vulnerable.”
Johnson searches for consensus on budget resolution as opposition grows ahead of key vote -- Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and his leadership team are feverishly searching for consensus on the House GOP conference’s plan to advance President Trump’s legislative agenda, which has thus far eluded the group as opposition to the blueprint grows. The scramble for support comes as the Speaker is eyeing a Tuesday vote to adopt the conference’s budget resolution, which will lay the foundation for enacting a sprawling bill full of Trump’s domestic policy priorities — including border funding, energy policy and tax cuts. “We’re having very productive conversations, as you all know, this is all part of the process, and I think we’re on track,” Johnson told reporters as he left the Capitol late Monday night. “We got the resolution through Rules and we’re expecting to vote tomorrow evening.” That timeline, however, is facing serious headwinds as resistance to the budget resolution rises across the GOP conference — a concerning sign for Johnson as he looks to muscle the measure through his slim majority. Republicans can only afford to lose one GOP vote and still adopt the resolution, assuming full attendance and unanimous Democratic opposition. As of Monday night, the number of GOP holdouts was far greater. On one end of the ideological spectrum are deficit hawks frustrated with the level of spending cuts. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) announced over the weekend that she was “a NO on the current version” of the resolution, and Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said he was also opposed but noted that his stance could flip if leadership reassures him that the conference will cut federal spending in the future. Additionally, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who frequently bucks his party, wrote on X Monday afternoon, “If the Republican budget passes, the deficit gets worse, not better,” signaling that he opposed the measure. In a late-night post Monday, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) declared “There is no path to pass the @HouseGOP budget plan until it includes the plan for ALL spending,” indicating that he may vote against the resolution as Congress remains at odds over how to avert a government shutdown next month. Meanwhile, on the other end of the conference are moderates concerned with potential cuts to Medicaid in the ultimate Trump agenda bill — a group that has been sounding the alarm for days. The resolution directs the Energy and Commerce Committee, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid, to find at least $880 billion in cuts, which many believe can only be reached with significant slashes to the social safety net program. Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) huddled with a cohort of centrists in the Capitol Monday night to discuss Medicaid — a conversation that appeared to move some moderates in the right direction but did not seal the deal for the entire group. According to a source, Guthrie “laid out a menu of things that can be done without touching” major social safety net programs, such as ensuring that individuals who should not be on Medicaid are not beneficiaries, imposing work requirements and rolling back parts of the Inflation Reduction Act, which Democrats passed in 2022. In a positive sign for Johnson, Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) — who previously dubbed herself “leaning no” — said she was a “lean yes” after emerging from the Speaker’s office. Other centrists, however, noted the forward progress but said they were not yet in support of the measure. “I’m still in the undecided category,” Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) told The Hill after the meeting. “Leadership is making every effort they possibly can to get this across the line. They’re answering a lot of our questions; they’re addressing our concerns.” “Medicaid still for a lot of us is a huge issue and we’re just trying to make sure that this does not affect our constituents, and we stick to the things that the president has been saying, the waste, fraud and abuse, making sure that people who don’t qualify aren’t part of the system,” he added. “And I feel like the speaker and majority leader and the whip are doing their best to get there and I feel like they’re making some headway.” Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Calif.), who represents a purple district, similarly said, “I think there’s more conversations to be had,” but reported “a little more clarity on some of the questions I had.” “So we’re moving in the right direction,” he added. Johnson, though, still has work cut out for him to unite the centrists around the plan. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.), for example, told The Hill on Monday that he called Trump earlier in the day to express opposition to the budget resolution because of the potential Medicaid cuts, warning the president that he may vote against the measure. “I called him to let him know that I think it hurts him, I think it hurts the Republican Caucus, I think it hurts working blue collar people. It’s too much out of that line-item in [Energy and Commerce],” Van Drew said. “I let him know that I may vote at the last minute, I might vote for it, but there’s also a good chance I won’t.” And Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who leads the Congressional Hispanic Conference, told reporters on Monday that he was a “solid undecided” on the legislation, citing the potential Medicaid cuts and a desire for the group to be included in high-stakes discussions moving forward. The stance followed a letter the group sent to Johnson last week that warned about slashes to the social safety net program. “I think we need more information,” Gonzales said. “I think a lot of our members need more information.” Johnson, for his part, has maintained that the Trump agenda bill will not gut Medicaid, especially after Trump said he did not want to significantly impact the social safety net program. Asked about the potential cuts on his way out of the Capitol Monday night, Johnson said “Medicaid is not mentioned anywhere in the resolution.” “And so all these discussions about policy, we had in the weeks ahead of us as we come up with the actual legislation,” he added. “So everybody needs to understand that. There’s a lot of misinformation out there about what this is.” The GOP’s push to adopt a budget resolution comes as the Speaker is looking to stay on track with the ambitious timeline he laid out earlier this year, which has the conference moving the measure out of the lower chamber by the end of this month. The resolution lays out a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees with a target of $2 trillion, puts a $4.5 trillion ceiling on the deficit impact of any GOP plan to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, and includes $300 billion in additional spending for the border and defense and a $4 trillion debt limit increase. Republicans on Capitol Hill are looking to use the budget reconciliation process to advance key parts of Trump’s agenda, which, if successful, would allow the party to circumvent Democratic opposition in the Senate. The two conferences, however, must first adopt a budget resolution to unlock the process. The House Rules Committee advanced the measure on a party-line vote Monday night.Johnson acknowledged that GOP holdouts put him in a difficult situation earlier on Monday, when he made a “prayer request” at an event with Americans for Prosperity: “Just pray this through for us, because it is very high-stakes, and everybody knows that.”
Mike Johnson makes 'prayer request' ahead of vote on Donald Trump agenda bill Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) asked for prayers as he prepares to bring the House’s budget reconciliation resolution, the vehicle for President Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda, for a floor vote as soon as Tuesday amid Republican opposition that threatens to derail the bill. “This is a prayer request. Just pray this through for us, because it is very high-stakes, and everybody knows that,” Johnson said while predicting he would get enough Republicans on board. The Speaker made the comment at an Americans for Prosperity (AFP) event Monday in a conversation with Guy Benson, a Fox News contributor and member of the organization’s advisory council, while talking about Republicans opposed to the bill. Republicans have a tiny majority in the House and cannot afford more than one defection on the legislation, assuming all Democrats are present and vote against it. Benson noted there is at least one GOP lawmaker opposed. “There may be more than one” Republican member opposed, Johnson responded. “But we’ll get there. We’re going to get everybody there.” Johnson is getting squeezed by Republicans on both ideological ends of the conference as he marches toward a floor vote on the budget resolution. Moderate Republicans and members of the Congressional Hispanic Conference are withholding support as they express concerns about potential changes to Medicaid, while fiscal hawks such as Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) have expressed concerns about Congress coming up with enough cuts to make up for the cost of tax cuts and other programs in the bill. The Speaker said later Monday afternoon that he had talked to Spartz and will see her in another meeting in the evening, and had put a voicemail in to Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), another fiscal hawk. “There’s a couple of folks who just have lingering questions, but I think all those questions can be answered and we’ll be able to move forward,” Johnson told reporters in the Capitol. The House GOP budget plan would be the first step in teeing up Trump’s ambitious legislative agenda in one piece of legislation that would include border funding, tax cuts and energy priorities — with tax provisions offset with likely cuts to Medicaid. It lays out a $1.5 trillion floor for spending cuts across committees, with a target of $2 trillion. It puts a $4.5 trillion ceiling on the deficit impact of any GOP plan to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, and it includes $300 billion in additional spending for the border and defense and a $4 trillion debt limit increase. Republicans are utilizing a special budget reconciliation process that allows Republicans to bypass the Senate’s 60-vote threshold and the need for any Democratic support. Senate Republicans, meanwhile, last week passed a vehicle for an alternative slimmed-down budget resolution that focuses on border security funding but would leave thorny and expensive issues such as tax cuts for a second budget reconciliation bill later. Trump last week made a surprise endorsement of the House’s approach of “one big, beautiful bill” — a phrase that Johnson on Monday joked to the AFP crowd he has tattooed on his chest. Johnson said if the House advances its budget resolution this week, his aggressive schedule aims to get the bill to Trump’s desk by early May. And asked if he has a plan B if House Republicans do not advance the budget resolution this week, Johnson said: “I’ve got a whole playbook, but I’m not going to tell you that.”
Top GOP negotiator warns stopgap becoming more likely to avert shutdown - House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said Monday that negotiators are still trading offers as both sides seek a compromise to keep the government funded into autumn — but he cautioned a stopgap is becoming more likely the longer Congress goes without a deal. Pressed about the prospect of a stopgap on Monday, Cole told reporters, “The longer we go, the more likely that is.” He added that both sides are still trading offers as top negotiators have worked for weeks to try to reach a deal on a top-line level for government funding for fiscal 2025, which began last October. His comments come amid the ongoing fallout over sweeping efforts by President Trump and the Department of Government Efficiency to shrink the size of government and implement funding cuts without approval from Congress. Congressional Democrats see the upcoming shutdown deadline as a way to counter some of those efforts. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) also said earlier this month that Democrats will push for language to unwind the recent measures by the Trump administration. However, Cole said Monday that he is “not for anything, appropriations bills, that limit the power of the president.” DOGE cuts pose potential liability for GOP in Virginia elections “So, if that’s a condition, and that seems to be where the Democrats are, we’re not going to do that,” he said. Congress has until March 14 to pass legislation to keep the government funded to prevent a shutdown. Cole expressed concern weeks ago that appetite is “growing” for a stopgap that runs through September, as lawmakers run months behind in finishing up their 12 annual spending bills for fiscal 2025. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) also didn’t rule out a full-year stopgap to keep the government funded through the end of the fiscal year in remarks to reporters earlier this month.
71 percent of Trump voters oppose Medicaid cuts: Poll --Most President Trump voters say they oppose any cuts to Medicaid as Republican lawmakers wrestle with how to reach up to $2 trillion in budget cuts through their reconciliation bill, a poll released Monday found. The poll from Hart Research conducted for the nonprofit Families Over Billionaires, which advocates in opposition to tax cuts for the wealthy, found 71 percent of voters who backed Trump said cutting Medicaid would be unacceptable. Voters overall were even more opposed to it, with 82 percent saying so. Six in 10 Trump voters also said cutting food and nutrition programs would be unacceptable. Medicaid has increasingly become a hot topic on Capitol Hill as the GOP seeks to advance its budget proposal to pass Trump’s legislative agenda. The House Rules Committee voted along party lines Monday to advance the budget resolution, allowing it to move to the floor for debate and a vote. The resolution would direct the House Energy and Commerce Committee to find at least $880 billion in budget cuts, raising concerns among Democrats and moderate Republicans that it could mean cuts to Medicaid, which provides health care coverage to more than 70 million people, most of them poor and half of them children.
Proposed GOP Medicaid Cuts Could Hit These Red States Hardest — Republicans’ big plan to cut taxes, fund border security and defense spending and fulfill all the key parts of President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda will rely on deep cuts to Medicaid. But Republicans are risking a massive political backlash by cutting a program many of their constituents rely on. Advertisement Medicaid provides health insurance coverage to 72 million Americans, including millions of children, and is a vital safety net in many states full of Trump supporters. Louisiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, West Virginia and Arkansas are all among the 10 states with the largest shares of Medicaid recipients, according to the nonpartisan Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation. No Republican lawmaker has outright said they would oppose the GOP budget plan over Medicaid cuts, but several have suggested they’d rather not yank health care away from their less wealthy constituents. “Large cuts to Medicaid would hurt a lot of people in my state — and we voted overwhelmingly for President Trump,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said in an interview with HuffPost this week. The debate over the future of Medicaid and other safety net programs is already roiling the GOP, as Republicans as hunt for savings to help pay for the $4.5 trillion in tax cuts President Donald Trump has demanded. In the House, a group of moderate Republicans representing districts with sizable Hispanic populations warned Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) this week against imposing severe cuts to programs like Medicaid and federal food assistance. Johnson only has a narrow one-seat majority in the chamber, and a group of deficit hawks have been demanding he push for even sharper spending cuts, complicating efforts to pass Trump’s agenda. The House Republican budget plan, which Trump has endorsed, calls for slashing as much as $880 billion from Medicaid to help finance the tax cuts. Half of Medicaid spending benefits people eligible due to old age or disability. In the Senate, Republicans seem sensitive to coming attacks about cuts to health care programs. During a marathon session of votes on their budget plan Thursday night, GOP senators adopted an amendment aimed at protecting Medicare and Medicaid. It was an effort to preemptively refute Democrats’ midterm election ads: See, we support Medicaid too. But Democrats opposed the amendment, maintaining that it was written with a loophole that would allow for cuts to millions of beneficiaries. They offered a slew of other amendments to protect the program and prevent tax cuts for the wealthy, but those were voted down by the GOP majority. West Virginia’s junior senator, Jim Justice, a former Democrat-turned-Republican, said he doubted “those sweeping changes that will really hurt people” would actually happen. “Do I really believe that President Trump is going to do something that is really detrimental to millions of seniors? I think I don’t believe it. I don’t believe that’ll happen at all,” he said. Other Republicans have drawn a harder line against cuts to health coverage. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley told HuffPost: “I don’t like the idea of massive Medicaid cuts. We should have no Medicare cuts of any kind.” Trump’s first-term attempts to repeal Obamacare — which would have rolled back Medicaid significantly and also stripped away protections for people with preexisting conditions — led to the lowest approval ratings of his tenure, and provided Democrats with the attack ads they needed to win back the House in 2018. The party is more than prepared to run the same playbook ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
House Republicans advance Trump's tax cut plan- The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives late on Tuesday advanced President Donald Trump's tax-cut and border agenda, delivering a major boost to his 2025 agenda. The vote on passage was 217-215, with one Republican voting in opposition and no Democrats supporting the controversial measure. One Democrat did not vote. It followed an unusual series of maneuvers by Speaker Mike Johnson in which he canceled a vote on the bill -- apparently because it lacked the votes for passage -- and members of the House were advised there would be no further votes for the night. He then promptly reversed course, only to bring the budget up for passage. The turn of events came after Johnson and No. 2 House Republican Steve Scalise spent hours persuading holdouts to back the move, a preliminary step to extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts later this year. Both leaders said Trump himself had also been contacting reluctant members about the need to advance the $4.5 trillion tax-cut plan, which would also fund the deportation of migrants living in the U.S. illegally, tighten border security, energy deregulation and military spending. Doubts about House Republican unity prompted Senate Republicans to enact their own budget resolution as a Plan B ploy last week: a $340 billion measure that covers Trump's border, defense and energy priorities but leaves the thornier issue of tax policy for later in the year. The House budget seeks $2 trillion in spending cuts over ten years to pay for Trump's agenda. The tax cuts Trump is seeking would extend breaks passed during his first term in office, his main legislative accomplishment, that are due to expire at the end of this year. Several hardline conservatives sought deeper spending cuts and stronger control over separate government funding legislation to avert a potential shutdown after current funding expires on March 14.
House Passes Budget Resolution That Will Increase Military Spending by $100 Billion - House Republicans on Tuesday passed a budget blueprint that would raise military spending by $100 billion, a plan backed by President Trump despite his suggestions that Pentagon spending could be cut.The budget plan also extends $4.5 trillion in tax cuts, would add $3 trillion to the deficit, and raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion. It passed along party lines in a vote of 217-215, with Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) being the only Republican to vote against it.Explaining his opposition, Massie cited the increases in the deficit. “If the Republican budget passes, the deficit gets worse, not better,” he wrote on X a day before the vote.The Senate recently passed its own budget resolution that would increase military spending by $150 billion, but it didn’t include the tax cuts. Trump has said he wants the budget plan and tax cuts to be put together in “one big beautiful bill,” backing the House’s version.Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), chair of the House Armed Services Committee, said the extra $100 billion in military spending could be used to secure the southern border, among other things.“The $100 billion in defense spending this resolution unlocks will enable us to begin restoring American deterrence, prioritizing lethality and ensuring peace through strength,” Rogers said, according to Stars and Stripes.When Republican Senators introduced their version of the budget plan, they said the increase in military spending could be used to fund President Trump’s idea for an “Iron Dome for America,” a missile defense project that will come with a huge price tag and likely start a new arms race.
Troubles loom for Johnson on Trump budget bill --Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) notched a significant win Tuesday night when he muscled the House GOP’s budget resolution through the chamber in a stunning — and dramatic — vote, flipping a trio of hard-line conservative holdouts at the last minute to clinch victory.But that was just the start.With the “one big, beautiful bill” budget resolution adopted in the House, Johnson is now staring down a series of high-stakes next steps that could make or break the Republican effort to enact President Trump’s legislative agenda — forecasting a stormy stretch ahead for the Speaker.“We took one necessary step, but there are many miles to go,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) wrote on the social platform X. First, House Republicans need to reconcile with the Senate GOP conference, which approved its budget resolution last week that utilized a two-track strategy. A number of senators have also laid down demands for major changes to the House-passed resolution, which could complicate the GOP effort to reach a compromise.Then, Johnson will be tasked with moving that consensus resolution through the House, which could get tricky if substantial changes are made to the measure, as expected.“As little as possible,” Johnson said when asked how many changes the House will be able to stomach. “We have a very small needle to thread here, and we have sort of an equilibrium point amongst people with competing priorities, and [if] we deviate from that too much, we have a problem.”And finally, in the heaviest lift of them all, Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and their leadership teams will have to fill out the specific policy details for the bill within the parameters laid out in the budget resolution — forcing top lawmakers into the balancing act of appeasing conservatives pushing for deep spending cuts and policy rollbacks while protecting moderate Republicans who represent key purple districts.
Johnson says deal to avert shutdown will probably be ‘clean,’ without DOGE cuts -Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said on Wednesday that a stopgap to avert a government shutdown next month is “becoming inevitable” and that it will probably be as “clean” as possible, as both sides have struggled for weeks to strike a full-year funding deal. Pressed about the prospect of a six-month stopgap, also known as a continuing resolution (CR), Johnson said, “It looks as though it is becoming inevitable at this point,” while pointing fingers at Democrats for “placing completely unreasonable conditions on the negotiations.” “They want us to limit the scope of executive authority,” Johnson said. “They want us to tie the hands of the president. They want to stipulate, for example, how many specific numbers of employees would be required by executive agencies.” “That’s just totally unprecedented. It’s inappropriate. I think it’s unconstitutional. I think it’d be a violation of separation of powers,” he said. Congress has until March 14 to pass legislation to keep the government funded or risk a shutdown. Johnson’s comments come as Democrats have pressed for assurances that a bipartisan funding deal that emerges from talks won’t be undercut by Trump amid his Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) sweeping operation to reshape the federal government. Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), a top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, voiced frustration with Republicans on Wednesday over the funding talks. She also accused Republicans of not answering Democrats’ last offer, which she said was made on Saturday. “The Republican president has no authority. He is in violation of the law,” she told reporters, before adding: “Ask my Republican colleagues about where we need to go. Don’t keep asking me the same questions over and over and over.” Trump has rolled out a batch of executive orders aimed at shrinking the government and curbing federal spending since taking office last month. Democrats have seized on the orders, which include measures aimed at freezing funds for climate and infrastructure laws championed by former President Biden, along with efforts seeking to dismantle offices such as the United States Agency for International Development. At the same time, some conservatives have been pressing for Congress to codify Trump’s orders ahead of the March 14 deadline. But Republicans haven’t committed to making Trump’s order a red line in funding talks with Democrats. “I don’t know if we can get into the CR, if it’s a CR, it probably is as close to a clean CR as possible, because that’s the most reasonable thing to do to ensure that the government is not shut down,” Johnson said on the matter on Wednesday. “But we will be looking to codify the DOGE savings, and it certainly will be part of reconciliation and with the rest of our agenda going forward.”
Donald Trump signals support for 'clean' stopgap funding measure - President Trump on Thursday threw his support behind advancing a “clean” stopgap funding measure, urging Congress to move his legislative agenda forward with a continuing resolution. “As usual, Sleepy Joe Biden left us a total MESS. The Budget from last YEAR is still not done,” Trump wrote late Thursday on Truth Social, casting blame on the Biden administration. “We are working very hard with the House and Senate to pass a clean, temporary government funding Bill (“CR”) to the end of September,” he added. “Let’s get it done!” The president lauded House Republicans and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) after the lower chamber successfully passed “one big, beautiful bill” that outlines a budget blueprint focused on taxes, border security and energy.However, Senate Republicans have cast doubt on the measure, eyeing significant changes to proposed tax cuts, which they say could become permanent, and raising concerns about sweeping cuts to Medicaid. “It’s complicated. It’s hard. Nothing about this is going to be easy,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said. “There are some things that we need to work with the House package to expand upon.”Congress has until March 14 to avert a shutdown. Negotiators appear to have hit a wall on whether to limit the president’s powers to spend the money agreed to. Democrats have also proven to be a hurdle for Republicans, as they move to block program cuts suggested by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) — an advisory board focused on curbing government spending. The controversial DOGE has also moved to oust thousands of federal workers amid its government overhaul, which has sparked a slew of lawsuits.
GOP push for DOGE cuts inflames talks to prevent shutdown - Growing calls among hard-line House conservatives to incorporate cuts made by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) into a developing government funding bill are complicating efforts to avert a shutdown two weeks ahead of the looming deadline. The pleas are poised to pin Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) into the tricky — yet familiar — position of managing his right flank while keeping the lights on in Washington, which will require some support from congressional Democrats. “I would have a real hard time voting for a clean [continuing resolution] after everything that we’ve seen out of DOGE,” said Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus. Asked if he wanted to see Congress implement the DOGE cuts in the government funding bill, Crane responded: “One hundred thousand percent.” Reflecting DOGE cuts in appropriations, however, would spark outcry from Democrats and almost certainly lead to a government shutdown — an outcome that Johnson wants to avoid in the first 100 days of the Trump administration, when the Republican trifecta is trying to tick items off their to-do list. “I don’t know what they’re even talking about,” Rep. Rosa DeLauro (Conn.), the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, said when asked about including the DOGE cuts in the funding bill. “I mean, every day it’s something.” Those dynamics are set to come to a head in the coming weeks, when congressional leaders will have to craft a government funding plan and get it to Trump’s desk by the March 14 deadline. Leaders increasingly say that will require some kind of continuing resolution (CR), its length yet to be determined, as discussions about fiscal 2025 levels continue — a measure that will require at least some Democratic support due to the Senate’s 60-vote threshold. But hard-liners are sounding adamant on their asks. “Why are we even having DOGE if we’re not gonna solidify and put it in the CR?” asked Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a fiscal hawk who said he “absolutely” wants the department’s cuts included in the government funding bill. The details of a stopgap are still in the works. On the other end of the ideological spectrum, Democrats are demanding language that ensures Trump cannot undercut the eventual deal. Johnson, for his part, appears to be evolving on the question of codifying DOGE efforts in the funding bill. Asked Wednesday afternoon about including the slashes in the stopgap, the Speaker cast doubt on the idea, expressing support for a bill with minimal policy add-ons — potential details that would complicate the path to getting sufficient Democratic support. “I don’t know if we can get it into the CR,” Johnson told reporters when asked about reflecting DOGE cuts in the legislation. “If it’s a CR it probably is as close to a clean CR as possible because that’s the most reasonable thing to do to ensure that the government is not shut down.” Later that day, however, Johnson floated the idea of reflecting some of the DOGE actions in the funding bill language. “That’s why I say you add anomalies to a CR, you can increase the spending, you can decrease the spending, you can add language that says, for example, the dramatic changes that have been made to USAID would be reflected in the ongoing spending,” Johnson said during an interview with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins. “It would be a clean CR mostly, I think, but with some of those changes to adapt to the new realities here, and the new reality is less government, more efficiency, a better return for the taxpayers.”
Johnson says approach to IRA repeal will be ‘between a scalpel and a sledgehammer’ -Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) indicated this week that his approach to repealing the Democrats’ climate, tax, infrastructure and health care bill will be neither delicate and precise nor a total overhaul.“It’ll be somewhere between a scalpel and a sledgehammer. We’ll see,” Johnson told reporters on Wednesday.The comment departs from his previous rhetoric on the future of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The Speaker told CNBC in September he wanted to take a “a scalpel and not a sledgehammer, because there’s a few provisions in there that have helped overall.”It’s not entirely clear what the departure will mean in practice, if anything, for the legislation. The 2022 law, which received only Democratic votes, contains billions in tax credits for low-carbon energy sources, as well as new taxes on large corporations and provisions allowing Medicare to negotiate the price of some drugs. Now that Republicans have control of the House, Senate and White House, they are looking to rein in the IRA — especially as they seek ways to pay for the tax cuts they want to enact.However, it remains an open question whether or to what extent the law’s energy tax credits in particular will be modified. A group of 18 House Republicans last year wrote a letter to Johnson saying they want to preserve some of the credits.
Scott Bessent says US-Ukraine deal has 'implicit' economic security guarantee -Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a U.S.-Ukraine deal featuring “strategic minerals, energy and state-owned enterprises” has an “implicit” economic security guarantee. “This deal is part of President Trump’s long-arc negotiating strategy for peace between Ukraine and Russia, and … let the Ukrainians get back … to … a peaceful existence,” Bessent told Fox News’s Maria Bartiromo on “Sunday Morning Futures.” “So, the first part of this is a partnership between Ukraine and the U.S. that involves strategic minerals, energy and state-owned enterprises where we set up a partnership and we are only looking forward,” he continued. Bessent added later that the deal features “an implicit guarantee that if the United States of America is heavily invested in the economic future … I call it an economic security guarantee.” “The more assets that U.S. companies have on the ground, the bigger interest that the U.S. has in the future of [the] Ukrainian economy doing well, the more security it creates for the Ukrainian people, and the … the higher the return for the U.S. taxpayer,” the Treasury secretary continued. Last week, Bessent went to Ukraine and met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “Security matters. Moscow and its allies cannot be allowed to gain control over Ukraine, and that means we must work together—across the free world,” Zelensky said on the social platform X on the meeting with the Treasury secretary. The New York Times has reported that U.S. officials have recently been pushing for a proposal in which the U.S. receives half of all revenues from Ukrainian natural resources, alongside earnings by way of ports and other infrastructure..
Report: Ukraine Agrees to Minerals Deal With the US - Ukraine and the US have reached an agreement on a minerals deal after the US backed off on one of its more contentious demands, the Financial Timesreported on Tuesday.The report said that the US had dropped the demand for it to have the right to $500 billion in potential revenue from Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other natural resources, an idea that Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky has publicly rejected.The agreement, which was finalized on Monday, will establish a fund where Ukraine will put 50% of its proceeds from rare earth minerals and other resources, including oil and gas, and the fund would invest in projects in Ukraine. The activity of Naftogaz, Ukraine’s largest oil and gas company, and other state-owned enterprises that currently fund the Ukrainian government will be excluded from the fund.It’s unclear what percentage of the fund will be owned by the US as those details will be worked out in follow-on agreements. The deal also doesn’t include explicit security guarantees from the US, which was one of Zelensky’s major demands.“The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, who led the negotiations, told the FT.Ukrainian officials told the FT that the agreement has been approved by Ukraine’s justice, economy, and foreign ministers, and they’re hoping Zelensky will go to Washington for a signing ceremony and a meeting with Trump. Later on Tuesday, Trump said that Zelensky was expected to visit the White House on Friday.“This will be a chance for the president to discuss what the bigger picture is. And then after it, we will be able to think of the next steps,” a Ukrainian official told the FT.Zelensky’s rejection of the Trump administration’s initial rare earth offer was one of the reasons why President Trump lashed out at the Ukrainian leader and called him a “dictator” for not holding elections. Trump was also frustrated by Zelensky’s complaints about not being invited to the talks between the US and Russia that were held in Saudi Arabia last week.\
Trump says he’ll meet with Volodymyr Zelensky soon to sign minerals deal - President Trump on Monday signaled he could meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House in the coming weeks to finalize a deal on critical minerals. Trump’s comments, which came during a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, happened days after he suggested Zelensky did not need to be part of negotiations about ending the war in Ukraine. “I will be meeting with President Zelensky. In fact he may come in this week or next week to sign the agreement,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “They’re very close to a final deal. It’ll be a deal with rare Earths and various other things. And he would like to come, as I understand it, here to sign it,” Trump added. “And that would be great with me. I think they then have to get it approved by their council or whoever might approve it. But I’m sure that will happen.” The Trump administration has been involved in talks with Ukraine about gaining access to the country’s critical minerals amid talks to end the Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. officials have suggested the deal would benefit Ukraine because it would create a greater incentive for the U.S. to provide security guarantees for Kyiv. Trump suggested Monday the agreement would be a way for the U.S. to recoup the money it has spent on military assistance for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Federal employee unions expand lawsuit to Musk firing threat if they don't justify work “We’re getting very close to getting an agreement where we get our money back over a period of time. But it also gives us something where I think it’s very beneficial to their economy, to them as a country,” Trump said.
Trump Will End His Option of Walking Away from Project Ukraine with His Minerals Deal -- by Yves Smith -- WE TOLD YOU SO. From a February 15 post:Most commentators took the Trump talk of owning or getting rights to Ukraine’s minerals to be bluster. Yours truly remarked otherwise, that this looked like a way for Trump to justify and get funding for a continued US participation, even if at a lower level than under Biden, by presenting it as a loan. This would make it the bastard cousin of the Ursuala von der Leyen plan to issue bonds against Russian frozen assets to which it does not have good title. Admittedly, the sketchy-seeming minerals agreement between the US and Ukraine, widely reported in Western media, has yet to be consummated (more on that soon). But as its contours emerge, other commentators are reaching the same conclusion that we did from the get-go: that it would not just provide Trump with a pretext to continue funding the war, but having an economic interest in Ukraine’s survival would give the Administration a reason to keep Ukraine fighting. Crudely speaking, the more territory the Ukraine state can hold, the more the US can loot develop. In keeping, notice the title on the Financial Times map below. As we’ll see, the related article makes clear the pact does not include a formal military commitment, but Trump’s patter and the change in US incentives, make it hard to think that the US will stop supplying Ukraine with arms and funds. As an aside, it’s odd to see the Financial Times dignify the notion that Ukraine has any meaningful rare earths deposits. An amusing debunking: Regardless, it’s worth noting that we were not alone in noticing Boris Johnson’s unseemly enthusiasm for this agreement: As the pink paper explains, the agreement is still not in final form and would need to be ratified by Ukraine’s Rada. The Financial Times also ventures that it similarly should be approved by a 2/3 vote of the Senate, but that does not seem to be in the cards. From the Financial Times: “The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture,” Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and justice minister who has led the negotiations, told the Financial Times on Tuesday…. The final version of the agreement, dated February 25 and seen by the FT, would establish a fund into which Ukraine would contribute 50 per cent of proceeds from the “future monetisation” of state-owned mineral resources, including oil and gas, and associated logistics. The fund would also be able to invest in projects in Ukraine. Ukraine has large underground deposits of critical minerals, including lithium, graphite, cobalt, titanium and rare earths such as scandium, that are essential for an array of industries from defence to electric vehicles. The agreement excludes mineral resources that already contribute to Ukrainian government coffers, meaning it would not cover the existing activities of Naftogaz or Ukrnafta, Ukraine’s largest gas and oil producers. However, it omits any reference to US security guarantees, which Kyiv had originally insisted on in return for agreeing to the deal. It also leaves crucial questions such as the size of the US stake in the fund and the terms of “joint ownership” deals to be thrashed out in follow-up agreements. Yours truly is old fashioned. An agreement with key terms still unsettled and to be hashed out later isn’t “final” in any normal sense. This seems awfully Japanese: have a vague agreement and keep arguing about what it means. But the Japanese have extremely strong cultural norms and so not as many things need to be spelled out as in a Western contract. But the effect of a Japanese-style deal and its continued wrangling is the more powerful partner has the upper hand. This tweet, if you click through, purports to have the full text of the pact. It’s mighty hand-wavey and in my reading, does call for an awful lot to be resolved in yet-to-be-hammered agreements that one would, in the normal course of events, to be part of the main deal.
Marco Rubio: Ukraine rare earth minerals deal a 'tush push' away - Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday said President Trump is “very close” to making a deal to gain access to Ukraine’s critical minerals as he pushes to end the war with Russia, referencing the Philadelphia Eagle’s signature “tush push” strategy. “My last indication was that it was very close to the finish line. We were on the … not even the one-yard line. We were at the half-yard line, almost like when the Eagles pushed the quarterback across,” Rubio told Fox News, noting the Super Bowl champion’s play, where the quarterback is physically pushed a few yards to score a touchdown. “The tush push thing,” he added. “So, it’s close and it’s good.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is heading to Washington, D.C. in the coming days to talk about the negotiations with Russia to end the three-year war. Trump has largely sidelined Zelensky and Ukraine in the talks, as Rubio met with Russian officials last week. Trump slammed the Ukrainian leader over the war, calling him a dictator. Trump on Tuesday told reporters that he heard Zelensky would be visiting the U.S. and said it was “certainly” okay if he wanted to come to Washington. U.S. officials say the minerals deal would benefit Ukraine because it would serve as an incentive to provide security guarantees for the country in peace talks. “This is a good deal for Ukraine. I mean, the United States working with them … after the conflict to be able to utilize their natural resources, not just to pay back the American taxpayer but to develop the Ukrainian economy,” Rubio said. Rubio said the security guarantee part of the deal is that the U.S. is now Ukraine’s partner “in something important.” “People keep using the term ‘security guarantees,’ what Ukraine needs really is a deterrent,” Rubio said. “They need to make it costly for anyone to come after them again in the future.”
Putin Says Trump's Proposal To Halve Military Spending Is a 'Good Idea' - Russian President Vladimir Putin has backed a proposal from President Trump to cut military spending in half as part of a potential three-way arrangement between the US, Russia, and China.“I think it’s a good idea. The US would cut by 50%, and we would cut by 50%, and then China would join if it wanted,” Putin said in an interview on Monday.The Russian leader said he couldn’t speak for China but said Moscow could “come to an agreement with the US, we’re not against it.” He added that it was a “good proposal, and we are ready for a discussion about this.”On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian was asked if China supported the proposal. He didn’t give a direct answer but said China’s “limited defense spending is completely out of the need of safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests, and the need of maintaining world peace.”As things stand, the US spends significantly more on its military than Russia and China combined. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in 2023, the US accounted for 37% of global military spending. China came in second but was still far behind, accounting for 12% of military spending, and Russia was in third at 4.5%.When Trump floated his proposal to cut spending, he also suggested the idea of denuclearization. “There’s no reason for us to be building brand new nuclear weapons. We already have so many you could destroy the world 50 times over or 100 times over. And here we are building new nuclear weapons, and [Russia] is building new nuclear weapons, and China is building new nuclear weapons,” he said.While Trump seems to favor the idea of limiting military spending and reducing nuclear weapons, he is also advancing policies that will have the opposite effect. The president has backed a budget plan from House Republicans that will raise the US military budget by $100 billion and also signed an executive order to develop a massive new missile defense system, which risks starting a new arms race.
Kremlin Denies Trump's Claim That Putin Has 'No Problem' With a European Deployment to Ukraine - The Kremlin on Tuesday denied a claim from President Trump that Russian President Vladimir Putin had “no problem” with the idea of the deployment of European troops to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping force under a future peace deal.Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov referred to previous comments from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov when asked about the issue. “There is a position on this matter that was expressed by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. I have nothing to add to this and nothing to comment on,” Peskov said.After meeting with US officials in Saudi Arabia last week, Lavrov said the idea of troops from NATO countries being deployed to Ukraine was “unacceptable” to Russia.Russia’s envoy to the UN, Vassily Nebenzia, has previously suggested that Moscow might be open to the idea of a UN peacekeeping force being sent to Ukraine.“Peacekeepers cannot operate without a mandate from the UN Security Council. Otherwise, any foreign military contingents sent into the combat zone will be regarded as ordinary combatants under international law and a legitimate military target for our armed forces,” Nebenzia said on February 10.Despite Russia’s clear opposition to the idea of European countries sending troops to Ukraine, the UK and France continue to push for the deploymentand reportedly want the US to back it with the threat of its air power in eastern Europe.
Waltz Rules Out Ukraine Joining NATO After Zelensky Offer - On Monday, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz ruled out the idea of Ukraine joining NATO after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered to step down for Ukrainian entry into the military alliance.“I do not see the United States having Ukraine enter into NATO and then having United States troops essentially obligated, immediately, in terms of Article 5, or coming to have US troops coming directly in for the defense of Ukraine,” Waltz said in an interview with Fox News.Zelensky made the remarks about resigning in exchange for NATO membership in response to President Trump calling him a “dictator” over the lack of elections in Ukraine. But Zelensky’s comments were not seen as a genuine offer to relinquish power since Ukrainian NATO membership is a non-starter for negotiations with Moscow, and the Trump administration had already ruled out the idea.Waltz also said he believed the US and Ukraine would soon be signing a deal on Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and other natural resources, although Zelensky has pushed back on the terms the Trump administration has been seeking.“We expect the Ukrainians to realize the opportunity that this is, and President Zelenskyy to realize the opportunity that this is, to be co-invested with the United States of America in the future of Ukraine, in the future of its economy, and growing the pie in terms of its natural resources, that not only helps Ukraine, but recoups these hundreds of billions of dollars for the Ukrainian people, and for the American taxpayer going forward,” Waltz said.Zelensky said on Sunday that he did not believe Ukraine was in debt for previous US military aid since President Biden and Congress agreed to provide the assistance as grants, not loans. Waltz said last week that Zelensky’s refusal to sign the rare earth mineral deal he was offered was one reason why President Trump had been “very frustrated” with the Ukrainian leader. Trump and Zelensky have also been at odds over the talks between the US and Russia that didn’t involve Ukraine.
Economic deal between US and Ukraine will tie the countries together for years. Here’s what it says (AP) — A preliminary economic agreement between Ukraine and the United States would ensure long-term U.S. involvement in rebuilding the country, but the deal leaves the question of security guarantees sought by Kyiv to future negotiations. According to the final version of the deal obtained by The Associated Press, the United States and Ukraine will establish a co-owned and jointly managed investment fund aimed at financing the reconstruction of Ukraine and its war-damaged economy. The agreement comes after two weeks of back-and-forth between Kyiv and Washington over how the U.S. could gain access to Ukraine’s natural resources. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted that specific assurances for Ukrainian security must accompany a deal on those resources. U.S. President Donald Trump planned to meet with Zelenskyy on Friday at the White House to sign the pact, which will closely tie the two countries together for years to come. Here’s more about what the agreement says, and what it doesn’t say. What about security guarantees for Ukraine? While the preliminary agreement references the importance of Ukraine’s security, it leaves that matter to a separate agreement to be discussed between the leaders of the two countries. Up Next - Trump shares AI video envisioning Gaza development with gold statue of president According to wording in the deal, the United States “supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace,” and the U.S. has “a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraine.” “Participants will seek to identify any necessary steps to protect mutual investments as defined in the Fund agreement,” it states. “The American people desire to invest alongside Ukraine in a free, sovereign and secure Ukraine.” Speaking at a news conference Wednesday in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said his country “needs to know first where the United States stands on its continued military support.” He said he expects to have a wide-ranging conversation with Trump during his visit to Washington. The economic agreement “may be part of future security guarantees, but I want to understand the broader vision. What awaits Ukraine?” Zelenskyy said. A senior Ukrainian official familiar with the matter told the AP on Wednesday that those discussions would take place independently from the establishment of the joint fund. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive negotiations, said Kyiv believes the establishment of the fund would itself serve to bolster Ukraine’s security since U.S. and Ukrainian investments would need to be protected amid continuing Russian attacks.
Trump Says He's in 'Serious Discussions' With Putin About a 'Major' US-Russia Economic Deal - President Trump said on Monday that he was in “serious discussions” with Russian President Vladimir Putin about ending the war in Ukraine and the possibility of economic deals between the US and Russia.“I am in serious discussions with President Vladimir Putin of Russia concerning the ending of the War, and also major Economic Development transactions which will take place between the United States and Russia,”Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Talks are proceeding very well!”While the US hasn’t committed to lifting economic sanctions on Russia, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made clear that sanctions relief will likely be part of a deal to end the war in Ukraine, which could pave the way for future US-Russia economic cooperation.Trump also said in his Truth Social post that he discussed the idea of the US reaching a rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine while hosting French President Emmanuel Macron and speaking to other G7 leaders. “Everyone expressed their goal of seeing the War end, and I emphasized the importance of the vital “Critical Minerals and Rare-Earths Deal” between the United States and Ukraine, which we hope will be signed very soon!” he said.Also on Monday, Trump claimed that Putin had “no problem” with the idea of a European peacekeeping force being deployed to Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal, although Russian officials have rejected the idea of a deployment of soldiers from NATO countries.“Yeah, he will accept that. I’ve asked him that question,” Trump told reporters alongside Macron in the Oval Office. “Look, if we do this deal, he’s not looking for more war. He doesn’t mind. But I’ve specifically asked him that question. He has no problem with it.”Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer have been leading the push for a European troop deployment to provide a security guarantee for Ukraine. The Times reported last week that a plan that’s been proposed would involve a deployment of 30,000 European troops backed by US air power.
Putin ready to work with US companies on mining rare-earth deposits in Russian-occupied Ukraine --Russian President Vladimir Putin said his nation was ready to work with U.S. companies to secure rare raw minerals within the nation’s borders in hopes of ending the conflict in Ukraine after three years of war.“It is important to emphasize that Russia possesses significantly — I want to stress this — significantly larger resources of this kind than Ukraine. Russia is one of the uncontested leaders when it comes to rare and rare-earth metal reserves,” Putin told reporters during a Monday interview aired on state TV, according to a transcript provided by the Kremlin.He urged partners to substantially invest in the harnessing of resources for the use of microelectronics, energy and building infrastructure for the digital economy.Putin’s statement comes after American officials proposed that Ukraine allow the U.S. access to its raw minerals to recoup billions of U.S. dollars designated to support Ukraine’s fight against Russia.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently joined a U.S. delegation to visit Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for peace negotiations alongside Vice President Vance. Vance described the meeting as “fruitful” and noted “economic tools of leverage” could be used to materialize discussions surrounding ending the violence in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “We would be happy to cooperate with any foreign partners, including American companies,” Putin said, later noting that some discussions with U.S. businesses interested in the venture are already underway. “The same is true for the new territories: We are open to foreign partnerships. Our historical territories that have become part of the Russian Federation again also hold certain reserves. We are ready to work there with international partners, including Americans,” he added, referring to parts of Ukraine that are under Russian control.\
Schumer accuses Trump of ‘siding’ with Putin over U.S. allies - Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) in a statement on the Senate floor marking the three-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine accused President Trump of “siding” with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the United States’ traditional NATO allies. “Today on this third anniversary of Putin’s war, Donald Trump is turning his back on the values that America stands for, of democracy, of security, and of liberty,” Schumer said. “Instead of standing up to Putin, Donald Trump is siding with him and against our own allies.” Schumer argued that the United States has “been clear” on where it stands on who provoked the war and has “stood on the side” of democracy, the inviolability of border and freedom. He noted the Senate a year ago passed $61 billion in assistance to Ukraine and argued that Trump is now breaking from that bipartisan view in a major way. “Instead of condemning Putin’s lies, Donald Trump is parroting Russian misinformation and propaganda, in defiance of all evidence, without regard to any facts, and with utter contempt for the truth,” he said. Schumer made his comments after Trump blamed Ukraine for starting the war with Russia and called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “a dictator without elections.”
Trump, Macron project unity amid growing cracks - President Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron sought to project unity during a White House meeting Monday, even as cracks widened in the alliance between the U.S. and Europe over the path forward in Ukraine. The two met at the Oval Office as the U.S. at the United Nations in New York voted against a resolution condemning Russia as the aggressor on the third anniversary of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. With that vote, the U.S. joined Russia and 16 other countries, including North Korea, Syria and Belarus as well as Israel and Hungary, while standing against longtime allies such as France, Germany, Great Britain and Canada. Trump, who in the last two weeks has blamed Ukraine for triggering a war against its invader and called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator, said he would rather not explain the rationale behind the vote when asked about it in the Oval Office, saying it was “self-evident.” Meanwhile, he and Macron for the most part sought to project a warm and friendly relationship, putting on the smiles amid handshakes and ribbing. Macron, during a joint press conference, highlighted the need for European nations to shoulder more of a security burden on their own continent, something Trump has long complained about. He focused much of his remarks on calling for security guarantees for Ukraine and included peacekeeping forces provided by Europe, saying this was an area of agreement with Trump. “That’s a turning point, in my view,” Macron said, “and that is one of the great areas of progress that we’ve made during this trip and during this discussion.” Trump, who campaigned on ending the war, pressed for a ceasefire and repeatedly noted his administration is talking not only with Western Europe and Ukraine, but also with Russia. Trump said Macron “agrees with me on many of the most important issues, chief among them is: This is the right time. It may be the only time [to end the war].” The possibility that Trump and the U.S. could withdraw support from Ukraine has provoked great worries in Europe, but Macron for the most part in public did not put any disagreements on view Monday.
Russia poised to send new US ambassador to Washington - Russian officials appointed a new ambassador to the U.S. this week, announcing their intention to send Alexander Darchiev to Washington to help mend the troubled relationship between the two global leaders.Darchiev, tapped to serve as the director of the Russian Foreign Ministry Department of North America, met with U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Sonata Coulter on Thursday in Istanbul. The exchange comes as relations between the U.S. and Russia have thawed after sanctions were imposed on the eastern European nation following the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.“Joint measures were agreed upon to ensure the unfettered mutual financing of Russian and US diplomatic missions’ operations and to establish appropriate conditions for diplomats to fulfil their official duties,” the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Thursday in a press release. Darchiev and Coulter also discussed restoring six U.S. properties owned by Russia that the country claims were “unlawfully seized” between 2016 and 2018. Officials have also urged the White House to reopen restricted airspace that would allow direct flights into the U.S. from Russia.“It is anticipated that today’s meeting will serve as the first in a sequence of such expert consultations, which may advance progress towards resolving differences with the American side and reinforcing confidence-building measures,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova told reporters. The advancements come as President Trump and his administration have discussed peace plans that would end the three-year war between Russia and Ukraine.
US and Russian Diplomats Hold Talks on Normalizing Relations in Istanbul - US and Russian diplomats held talks in Istanbul on Thursday about the issues impacting the work of their respective embassies as Washington and Moscow are looking to get diplomatic relations back on track.According to the Russian news agency TASS, the talks ended after six and a half hours. Valentina Matvienko, speaker of the upper house of Russia’s parliament, said the talks should help restore the “full-fledged work of our diplomatic missions.”“I’m sure that the agreements will be reached and we will return to civilized communication, which was disrupted by the previous administration,” Matvienko said, according to The Associated Press. The talks in Istanbul followed up a meeting in Saudi Arabia on February 18 that involved high-level US and Russian officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. During that meeting, the two sides agreed to normalize relations and work to bring the war in Ukraine to an end.Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that the renewed dialogue between the US and Russia “inspires certain hopes.”“There is reciprocal determination to work toward the restoration of relations between the countries, a gradual solution of the colossal backlog of systemic, strategic problems in the world architecture,” Putin said, according to TASS.The Russian leader said the current US administration has demonstrated “pragmatism, a realistic view of things, and are abandoning many stereotypes, the so-called rules and messianic ideological cliches of their predecessors, which, essentially, were the reasons that led to the crisis of the entire system of international relations.”While both Putin and Trump seem eager to reduce tensions, it remains unclear when the war in Ukraine might come to an end. Trump is hosting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to sign a mineral deal on Friday and has said US military shipments to Ukraine will likely continue until a deal is reached with Russia.
Bill O'Reilly: Donald Trump wants a Nobel Peace Prize after Russia-Ukraine war -Veteran journalist Bill O’Reilly said Monday that President Trump seeks to end the war in Ukraine partly to be nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize.“I know exactly what Trump is aiming for. He would like to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize,” O’Reilly said on NewsNation’s “On Balance.”“That may or may not happen,” he added. “That’s not the most honest organization over in Norway, but he wants to get this thing settled.”O’Reilly also defended Trump’s approach to bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to a close, which has entered its third year.The former Fox News host outlined what he believes are key elements of Trump’s strategy, including a mineral treaty with Ukraine and allowing Ukraine to join the European Union but not NATO.“Once we get that deal in Ukraine, we put American structure into that country, which makes it much, much (more) difficult for Bad Vlad to drone it, to bomb it, because there’ll be Americans there,” O’Reilly said, using his nickname for Russian President Vladimir Putin.The commentator went on to criticize the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict.“Under the Democratic Party, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, you had no chance to stop this war. None,” he told host Leland Vittert.
Trump, Vance go off on Zelensky in contentious Oval Office spat -- President Trump went off on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an extraordinary Oval Office meeting in front of cameras on Friday in which he raised his voice and called the foreign leader “disrespectful.” The meeting, which began cordially, devolved when Zelensky pressed Vice President Vance for suggesting that a diplomatic solution be reached with Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war. Zelensky in turn laid out years of Putin violently taking over Ukrainian territory, going back on previous ceasefires and refusing to exchange prisoners. “What do you mean?” Zelensky asked Vance. “I’m talking about the kind of diplomacy that’s going to end the destruction of your country,” Vance responded. “I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media. Right now, you guys are going around and forcing conscripts to the front lines because you have manpower problems, you should be thanking the president for trying to bring an end to his conflict.” Zelensky then suggested that the United States did not feel the ramifications of the war in Ukraine yet because of geography, but would feel it in the future, setting off Trump. “Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel because you’re in no position… to dictate what we’re going to feel,” Trump replied. “We’re going to feel very good and very strong. You’re right now, not in a very good position.” “You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards,” Trump said, gesturing toward Zelensky and raising his voice. “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people, you’re gambling with World War III… and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country, that’s backed you far more than a lot of people said they should have.” Vance asked Zelensky if he had said “thank you once” during the Oval Office meeting. Zelensky replied, “Please, you think that if you will speak very loudly about the war…” “He’s not speaking loudly, your country’s in big trouble… you’re not winning this. You’re not winning this. You have a damn good chance of coming out okay because of us,” Trump told Zelensky. Vance also knocked Zelensky for a visit he made to a Pennsylvania ammunition plant in September, which Republicans took to be a campaign stop in support of the Biden-Harris administration. “You went to Pennsylvania and campaigned for the opposition in October. Offer some words of appreciation for the United States of America and the president who’s trying to save your country,” Vance said. Vance has repeatedly suggested that Ukraine cede territory in order to end the war with Russia, particularly before he ran as Trump’s running mate.
How the Trump, Zelensky meeting went off the rails - Efforts to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine were left in tatters following President Trump’s confrontational White House meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which erupted into one of the most remarkable Oval Office scenes in years. Zelensky arrived at the White House on Friday with the hopes of signing a critical minerals deal with the U.S. and securing assurances from Trump as he seeks to broker peace between Kyiv and Moscow. But negotiations ended shortly after they started, with Trump calling Zelensky “disrespectful” and saying he was “not ready for peace.” It was the culmination of roughly a month of growing tensions between the Trump administration and Zelensky, who had frustrated White House officials with some of his rhetoric and actions. Trump welcomed Zelensky to the Oval Office cordially enough, praising the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers and insisting he wanted to see peace. But the meeting soon devolved into shouting and finger-pointing, with the president and Vice President Vance accusing Zelensky of being ungrateful and of having little leverage. The moment the meeting went from cordial to off the rails occurred when Vance said Trump was engaging in diplomacy and Zelensky questioned “what kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about?” noting that Russian President Vladimir Putin has broken ceasefires and killed Ukrainians. As Zelensky spoke, he leaned over and gestured toward Vance with his hands. “I’m talking about the kind of diplomacy that’s going to end the destruction of your country,” Vance said as Zelensky attempted to interrupt. “Mr. President, Mr. President, with respect, I think it’s disrespectful for you to come to the Oval Office to try to litigate this in front of the American media.” That prompted Zelensky to ask Vance, who has a long-standing history of questioning U.S. aid to Ukraine, if he had ever been to his country. “Had you ever been to Ukraine? Did you see the problems we have?” Zelensky asked, to which Vance responded that he had seen “the stories.” When Zelensky then tried to suggest the U.S. had not yet felt the full ramifications from the war, he set off Trump. “You don’t know that. Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel,” Trump said. “You’re in no position to dictate that.” “You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards,” Trump said, raising his voice. “You’re gambling with World War III, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country, that has backed you.” “Have you said thank you once in this entire meeting?” Vance said, to which Zelensky said “a lot of times.” “You think that if you will speak very loudly about the war —” Zelensky began saying but Trump cut him off. “He’s not speaking loudly. … Your country’s in big trouble. You’re not winning this. You have a damn good chance of coming out OK because of us,” Trump said. A White House official told The Hill that after the spat, Trump and Zelensky went into separate rooms and the Ukrainians wanted the talks to continue, asking to reset. But Secretary of State Marco Rubio and national security adviser Mike Waltz ultimately told them they had to leave the White House grounds, which Trump had ordered, and they suggested Zelensky return when he’s ready for peace. Trump felt disrespected by Zelensky’s demeanor and comments during the meeting, telling aides he was shrugging and rolling his eyes, the official said. The two leaders had been scheduled to hold a joint press conference and sign a deal giving the U.S. access to Ukraine’s critical minerals supply later in the day, but it was canceled.
Trump and Zelensky clash in White House sparks fierce debate in Congress - The explosive clash between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House on Friday has sparked a firestorm on Capitol Hill, pitting “America First” Republicans against Ukraine backers from both parties in the ferocious battle over the future of U.S. foreign policy. Within minutes of the televised Oval Office skirmish, conservatives in both chambers were hailing Trump’s castigation of Zelensky while attacking the Ukrainian leader as an ingrate for challenging Trump’s recent shifts toward Russia. “It was disrespectful and unbecoming of President Zelensky to disrespect the President and Vice-President of the United States on live television in our cherished Oval Office,” said Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the chair of the conservative House Freedom Caucus. “President Trump rightly pointed out the Russia/Ukraine war could lead to World War lll — this calls for diplomatic leadership not grandstanding and performative behavior on the world stage.” Trump’s critics had diametrically different views, praising Zelensky’s resolve while accusing Trump of empowering America’s autocratic adversaries — specifically, Russian President Vladimir Putin — at the expense of democratic allies. “Putin must be overjoyed with today’s theatrics,” former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wrote on social platform X. The dispute is just the latest piece of a much larger debate over America’s global role in protecting democracies against the creep of fascism and the growing influence of totalitarian regimes like those in Russia, China and Iran. For decades, the GOP was practically defined by its embrace of a muscular foreign policy that favored American intervention around the globe in the name of promoting self-determination and free markets. Trump’s “America First” doctrine turned that orthodoxy on its head, promoting a more isolationist strategy designed to focus U.S. resources on domestic endeavors. The battleground of Ukraine, where Russia invaded three years ago, has become ground zero of the domestic dispute that’s still raging between those two philosophical camps. And Trump’s supporters, electrified by his decisive victory last November, wasted no time on Friday defending the president’s beratement of Zelensky as a simple act of patriotism. “Thank you Mr. President and Vice President Vance for putting America first,” Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) posted on X. Other Republicans took the additional step of bashing Zelensky for what they saw as a show of impudence for the country that’s spent billions of dollars propping up Ukraine during the war. “The act displayed by Zelenskyy in the Oval Office was nothing short of a massive show of disrespect for the Trump Administration and the American people,” Rep. Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.) posted on X. But Ukraine’s allies — a group that includes Democrats and an old guard of Reagan Republicans — hammered Trump and Vance for scolding an ally on live TV. Those voices were already up in arms over Trump’s claim that Ukraine was responsible for the war with Russia, as well as a recent United Nations vote in which the U.S. sided with Moscow over Kyiv. Only Putin, they said, has gained an advantage.
Graham: Trump, Zelensky meeting an 'absolute, utter disaster' -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who has been one of the most outspoken advocates for supporting the Ukraine war effort, said he was “devastated” by the heated exchange between President Trump, Vice President Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House Friday. Graham, who had advocated for the United States to share Ukraine’s mineral wealth in return for its ongoing assistance to the war effort, said the meeting was an “absolute, utter disaster” and any prospect of a deal now appears to be dead. “Devastated. Everything I … have been working for to try to get a new relationship with the United States around a critical minerals deal beneficial to both of us was completely obliterated today,” Graham said on Fox News’s “America Reports.” Graham, who met with Zelensky on Friday morning along with Democratic Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), said he had urged the Ukrainian leader to “stay on message” and “be grateful, be thankful.” The South Carolina senator advised Zelensky not to press for U.S. security guarantees during the Oval Office meeting with Trump. Graham said it’s now a major question whether the United States can continue to support Ukraine if Zelensky remains president. “The question for me is, ‘Is he redeemable in the eyes of Americans?’ Most Americans witnessing what they saw today would not want Zelensky to be their business partner, including me, and I’ve been to Ukraine nine times since the war started,” he said.
Trump: Zelensky 'overplayed his hand' after Oval Office spat - President Trump said Friday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “overplayed his hand” in an explosive Oval Office meeting earlier in the day, and he signaled future U.S. support would be in jeopardy if Zelensky does not want to end the fighting. “We had a meeting today as you know with Zelenskyy, and I would say it didn’t work out exactly great from his standpoint. I think he very much overplayed his hand,” Trump told reporters at the White House as he prepared to depart for a weekend in Florida. Asked what Zelensky would have to do to restart talks, Trump said the Ukrainian leader would have to say, “I want to make peace,” instead of criticizing Russian President Vladimir Putin. “He’s got to say, ‘I want to make peace,’” Trump said. “He doesn’t have to stand there and say about ‘Putin this, Putin that.’ All negative things. He’s got to say ‘I want to make peace. I don’t want to fight a war any longer.’” The moment the meeting went from cordial to off the rails occurred when Vance said Trump was engaging in diplomacy and Zelensky questioned “what kind of diplomacy, JD, are you speaking about?” noting that Putin has broken ceasefires and killed Ukrainians. Trump indicated the U.S. would not continue to support Ukraine if Zelensky did not come to the negotiating table to end the war. “I just want to get a deal done, and if a deal happens, good. But you can’t embolden somebody that does not have the cards and all of a sudden that person says, ‘Oh, well now I can keep fighting.’ We are not going to keep fighting. We’re going to get the war done, or let them go and see what happens, let them fight it out.”
White House mocks Ukraine ambassador's reaction to Trump's exchange White House deputy chief of staff Dan Scavino mockingly shared a video clip of Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova putting her head in her hands during Friday’s hostile exchange between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “Ukrainian Ambassador understands that Zelensky is a complete and total disaster…,” Scavino wrote in the post. Earlier, a photo of Markarova from that same moment was shared by CNN reporter Kaitlan Collins on social platform X and has been viewed more than 1.6 million times, as of about 5:30 p.m. EST Friday. The cordial conversation between Trump and Zelensky turned contentious when Vice President Vance and the Ukrainian leader discussed diplomacy, erupting into an argument about Zelensky’s gratefulness for U.S. support and ending with Trump calling the foreign leader “disrespectful” and saying he was “not ready for peace.” Collins, who was present in the Oval Office during the exchange, told CNN’s Dana Bash, “The Ukrainian ambassador had her head buried in her hands as this shouting match was going on between the three of them.” “Talk about her worst nightmare. She was literally watching it unfold before her eyes in the Oval Office,” Bash commented.
European Leaders Voice Support for Zelensky Following Heated Exchange With Trump - After an Oval Office meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky that turned into an argument in front of the press, several leaders of NATO nations made public statements in support of the Ukrainian leader.On Friday, Zelensky traveled to the US to meet with Trump and was expected to sign a mineral deal. Trump said that deal would allow for aid to continue to flow to Kiev. However, during a press conference before the deal was signed, an argument erupted.Following the presser, Trump expelled Zelensky from the White House, and posted on Truth Social that the deal was off. “I have determined that President Zelensky is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE,”he wrote.The feud between Trump and Zelensky prompted most leaders of NATO countries to voice support for Ukraine. Nataša Pirc Musar, the President of Slovenia, posted on X, “What we witnessed in the Oval Office today undermines these values and the foundations of diplomacy. We stand firmly in support of Ukraine’s sovereignty.”Other leaders who publicly restated their commitment to supporting Ukraine following the meeting included French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Trump Considers Ending All Aid to Ukraine - The White House is considering ending all aid transfers, including weapons, to Ukraine after an Oval Office press conference turned into an argument between President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky.According to The Washington Post, “The Trump administration is considering ending all ongoing shipments of military aid to Ukraine in response to President Volodymyr Zelensky’s remarks in the Oval Office on Friday and his perceived intransigence in the peace process.”If the aid is terminated, Ukraine would not receive billions of dollars in weapons from the US, including missiles and ammunition that was approved through the Presidential Drawdown Authority.The New York Times reported that weapons deliveries to Ukraine have “slowed to a trickle” even before Friday’s heated exchange. However, Trump is now considering cutting off other support to Kiev.“The president might decide to end even the indirect support being provided by the US,” the outlet explained. “Which includes other types of military financing, intelligence sharing, training for Ukrainian troops and pilots, and hosting a call center that manages international aid at a US military base in Germany.”Following the White House clash between Trump, Vance, and Zelensky, NBC News reported the administration was also cutting non-military aid to Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ended the Ukraine Energy Security Project, which provides Kiev with hundreds of millions of dollars to attempt to repair the country’s energy grid.According to the outlet, other programs could be eliminated. “In addition to ending the Ukraine Energy Security Project, USAID is also dramatically downsizing its presence in Ukraine,” NBC News explained.
Trump Shares AI Video of 'Trump Gaza,' Drawing Backlash - President Trump has shared a strange video generated by artificial intelligence that showed what the president’s vision for turning the Palestinian territory into the “Riviera of the Middle East” might look like, drawing backlash on social media.The video showed a gold statue of Trump, what appeared to be Elon Musk dancing under falling money, and Trump and Israeli prisoner Benjamin Netanyahu lounging on chairs near a pool, among other things.In response to the video, Basem Naim, a senior Hamas official, toldNewsweek that Trump was “once again proposing ideas that do not take into account the cultures and interests of the people.”“The people of Gaza are looking forward to the day when they see Gaza rebuilt, economically revived and building a better future for its children, but this cannot succeed inside the big prison,” he added. “We are not struggling to improve prison conditions, but to get rid of the prison and the jailer.”Trump shared the video after his repeated calls for the US to “take over” Gaza, a plan that would require an ethnic cleansing campaign since he has said the Palestinians must leave and wouldn’t have a right to return.Trump’s idea has been strongly rejected by the Palestinians in Gaza and the regional Arab states. Egypt and other Arab countries have been developing a plan to rebuild Gaza that would allow its residents to stay. Trump has signaled he’s ready to back Israel if it restarts its genocidal war on Gaza amid the incredibly fragile ceasefire and hostage deal. The Israeli siege and bombing campaign on Gaza since October 2023 has killed nearly 62,000 Palestinians, a number that doesn’t include indirect deaths caused by the destruction of Gaza’s infrastructure.
The Empire At Its Most Honest - Caitlin Johnstone = President Donald Trump has shared a shockingly awful AI-generated music video envisioning a future Gaza that has been turned into an ostentatious resort town where everyone parties amid showers of cash while Trump and Netanyahu sip drinks by the pool. The video is intended to reflect Trump’s plans for a Gaza Strip that has been permanently ethnically cleansed of Palestinians. If you haven’t watched it yet you definitely should, because words can’t do justice to just how terrible it is. This video is simultaneously the most American thing that has ever happened and the most Israeli thing that has ever happened. Fake. Gaudy. Sociopathic. Genocidal. Emblematic of all the ugliest values that both dystopian civilizations have come to embody. They used the most artless art medium in existence to digitally dance on the graves of mountains of dead civilians. The most powerful government on earth celebrated the idea of Trump and Netanyahu presiding over orgiastic parties for the obscenely wealthy on a land that has been purged of its indigenous inhabitants following a year and a half of brutal slaughter. Twerking to shitty AI-generated techno music surrounded by golden Trump statues and hundred dollar bills, because you are so happy that you finally found a Final Solution to the Palestinian Problem. It doesn’t get any more American than this, and it doesn’t get any more Israeli. This soulless, artless, conscienceless expression of egotistic masturbation lubricated with the blood of dead children is the empire at its most honest. This is the very best this globe-dominating power structure has to offer our world. This entire civilization is diseased. Not just the United States and Israel but every nation on earth that is subject to the metastases of their cancerous influence. They’re making us all dumber, sicker, nastier, crueler. Less creative. Less artful. Less caring. Less insightful. They are poisoning our minds and turning our hearts into shit. I’ve always said that the only thing I like about Trump is that he puts an honest face on the empire. In terms of actual policy and actions he’s not much different from any other Republican president, but he has this compulsive inclination to constantly yank off the plastic smileyface mask of the empire and reveal the snarling blood-spattered face beneath. This is a perfect example of what I’m talking about. That one video, all by itself, tells you more about what the US empire really is than every movie its PR agents in Hollywood have ever produced. This is the real America. This is the real Israel. This is the real empire. And this is why we must defeat them.
Trump Approves $3 Billion Weapons Transfer to Israel - The White House used emergency powers to approve a $3 billion weapons transfer to Israel. The package includes arms that the Joe Biden administration was hesitant to send to Tel Aviv.On Friday, the Pentagon announced three arms packages for Israel totaling over $3 billion. The first sale is 35,500 MK 84 and BLU-117 bombs, both munitions with 2,000-pound warheads. Additionally, the US will send 4,000 Predator bombs, 2,000-pound bunker busting munitions. The nearly 40,000 bombs will cost over $2 billion.Tel Aviv has previously used bunker busting bombs as chemical weapons. The IDF found that if it used multiple warheads, a chemical reaction is created that can cause a suffocating gas in the tunnels below the surface.The second arms package includes 5,000 1,000-pound bombs and 1,500 JDAM kits to turn the munitions into guided bombs. The 1,000-pound bombs and guidance kits are expected to cost $675 million. A third sale is for Caterpillar D9 Bulldozers with a price tag near $300 million.The White House claims that the arms sale is an emergency, bypassing Congressional oversight. The Biden administration used the same tactic to rush weapons to Tel Aviv after Israel launched the onslaught in Gaza following the October 7 Hamas attack.However, the Biden administration did restrict the transfer of 2,000-pound bombs and military bulldozers to Tel Aviv. Last month, Trump released a shipment of 1,800 2,000-pound to Israel that Biden paused in May.Earlier this week, the Trump White House repealed a Biden-era national security memo that required countries to receive US weapons to not violate international law or block humanitarian aid.While the Biden administration concluded that Israel was blocking aid transfers into Gaza, it continued to send most of the weapons that Tel Aviv requested. $22 billion in arms sent to Israel has been paid for with US military aid.Since Trump came into office, Hamas and Israel have been under a ceasefire and hostage agreement. That deal was meant to be implemented in three phases. However, the first phase is set to expire on Saturday with no plans for moving onto phase two.Negotiations about advancing the deal into phase two were scheduled to begin weeks ago but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed Israeli participation in the talks. Now, Washington and Tel Aviv are seeking to extend the first phase of the deal for six weeks. Hamas said it rejected the proposal Israel put forward to extend phase one.Over the first six weeks of the deal, Hamas has complained that Tel Aviv is not upholding its commitment to allow aid into the Strip, a claim backed by Israeli officials speaking with the New York Times.On Saturday, Palestinian sources reported that Israel was committing significant ceasefire violations by opening heavy fire near Rafah and Khan Younis. Saturday also marks the start of the Muslim holy month Ramadan.
Israeli DM: US Gave Israel Green Light to Stay in Lebanon ‘Indefinitely’ - Israel’s decision to continue to occupy territory in southern Lebanon beyond the February 18 deadline came without a lot of official comment from the US. According to Israeli DM Israel Katz, however, the US gave them a “green light” to remain militarily in Lebanon indefinitely.Israeli media was reporting around the deadline that the US was backing the continued occupation of five surveillance posts inside southern Lebanon. The US never directly confirmed that, however, and that Israel remains in Lebanon just came and went without official US comment.The ceasefire ending the Israeli invasion of Lebanon was meant to provide a 60-day window for Israeli withdrawal, which would’ve ended January 26. The US guaranteed that Israel would be out by then, but then later endorsed extending the deadline to February 18. They similarly talked about February 18 being a firm deadline that would not be extended, but then stopped talking about it at all beyond that. Israel started building the hilltop surveillance posts before the February 18 deadline, and Israeli FM Gideon Sa’ar said that the “strategic high points” would be necessary to retain temporarily, until the Lebanese Army has sufficient control of the south.The temporary nature of those posts seems to be at considerable doubt from Katz’s comments. He no longer presented this as anything to do with Lebanese Army control of the area, and just maintains that it is “not time-dependent.” It appears Israel will be staying as long as it wants, and the US is comfortable with that idea.Lebanon is not so keen on the continued occupation, as it’s condemned Israel staying in the area and urged the US and France, the initial guarantors of the ceasefire, to do something about it. France proposed sending its own troops to replace the Israelis, but Israel rejected that.Adding to the Lebanese disquiet about Israel’s surveillance-focused occupation, the Lebanese Army announced that it had found a number of hidden surveillance devices in southern Lebanon since Israeli troops left the populated areas. Sensors and cameras were reportedly found hidden in trees and among rocks around the area.In practice, the tree-cameras are probably less of a problem than the actual Israeli ground troops still in Lebanese territory for surveillance purposes. Yet even those cameras reflect a reality where getting Israel militarily out of Lebanon is only the first step toward ending the surveillance operation.
Iran Says Israel's Nuclear Weapons Are a 'Grave Threat' to the World - On Monday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the UN’s Conference on Disarmament in Genevathat Israel’s nuclear weapons pose a “grave threat” to the world.Israel is estimated to have somewhere between 90 and 300 nuclear weapons, and its nuclear arsenal gets very little attention since both the US and Israel do not acknowledge its existence. Israel is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), meaning its nuclear weapons program is not subject to inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).Araghchi called for the world to put pressure on Israel over its secret nuclear weapons program. “The international community must hold this regime accountable, and demand that it renounce the possession of nuclear weapons, accede to the NPT as a non-nuclear-weapon party, and subject all its nuclear facilities and activities to the comprehensive IAEA Safeguards,” he said.Aragchi also condemned threats from Israeli officials related to Israel’s nuclear weapons. In November 2023, former Israeli Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu, who recently resigned over the Gaza ceasefire deal, said dropping a nuke on Gaza was an option for Israel. “We categorically condemn this illegitimate, illegal, and irresponsible action and position,” Aragchi said.Last year, Avigdor Liberman, a member of the Israeli Knesset and leader of the Avigdor Liberman, said Israel may have to stop Iran’s nuclear program with “non-conventional” means, a veiled reference to Israel’s nuclear weapons.“It is not possible anymore to stop the Iranian nuclear program with conventional means,” Liberman said. “And we will have to use all the means that are available to us. We will have to stop with the deliberate policy of ambiguity, and it needs to be clear what is at stake here.”While Israeli and US officials are constantly hyping up the threat of Iran developing nuclear weapons, there’s no evidence Tehran has decided to build a nuclear bomb, a fact recently acknowledged by the CIA. Unlike Israel, Iran is a signatory to the NPT and is subject to IAEA inspections.
Iran accelerating near-weapons-grade plutonium production: Watchdog -- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran is taking steps to accelerate its near weapons-grade uranium in a broader effort to expand its capability for nuclear warfare, according to the watchdog’s latest report. As of Feb. 8, Iran had 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 percent according to The Associated Press who reviewed the confidential report. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran is taking steps to accelerate its near weapons-grade uranium in a broader effort to expand its capability for nuclear warfare, according to the watchdog’s latest report. As of Feb. 8, Iran had 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 percent according to The Associated Press who reviewed the confidential report.According to the IAEA, approximately 42 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90 percent.“The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern,” the IAEA report read as reported by AP.Iran has not accepted oversight from the organization’s agency inspectors, who have sought to monitor the nation’s nuclear developments since September 2023. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum effectively denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon and giving the Treasury and State departments approval to impose necessary sanctions to limit their advancements. However, the president did outline the possibility of a nuclear peace deal with the nation a day later. “I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon. Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” he wrote on Truth Social.
US Imposes More Sanctions Targeting Iranian Oil Sales -The US on Monday imposed new sanctions on 30 people and ships over their alleged role in shipping Iranian oil as the Trump administration is attempting to ramp up its so-called “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran.According to the Treasury Department, among the sanctioned are oil brokers in the UAE and Hong Kong, tanker operators and managers in India and China, the head of Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company, and the Iranian Oil Terminals Company.“The United States will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.The purpose of one of Trump’s orders related to Iran is to “drive Iran’s export of oil to zero.” But Iran has found oil markets in Asia in recent years that aren’t afraid of being targeted by US sanctions, and it’s unclear if the new measures will have much of an impact.When Trump signed his maximum pressure executive order, he claimed he was “not happy” about doing so and insisted he wanted a deal with Iran over its nuclear program even though he also acknowledged Iranian leadership doesn’t want a nuclear bomb. However, the new sanctions have made diplomacy with Tehran less likely, based on public comments from Iranian officials.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned on engaging in negotiations with the West to get sanctions relief, has said the new sanctions show the US is not “sincere” about diplomacy.After Pezeshkian was sworn in last year, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opened the door to the possibility of talks with the US, saying there was “no harm” in engaging with the “enemy.”But earlier this month, Khamenei said that talks with the US would not be “wise.” He cited the negotiations to reach the 2015 nuclear deal and the fact that the US under the first Trump administration tore up the deal only a few years later.President Trump and other US officials have hinted military action is on the table if a deal is not reached with Iran, and recent reports have said Israel is looking to attack Iran in the coming months. “I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it. They don’t want to die. Nobody wants to die,” Trump said earlier this month. “If we made the deal, Israel wouldn’t bomb them.”
Iran Rules Out Direct Talks With US in Response to 'Maximum Pressure' - On Tuesday, Iran said it would not engage in direct talks with the US in response to President Trump reinstating his so-called “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic Republic, which has involved new sanctions targeting Iranian oil sales. “Iran’s position regarding nuclear talks is clear, and we will not negotiate under pressure and sanctions,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who was hosting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Tehran.“There is no possibility of direct negotiations with the US as long as maximum pressure is being applied in this way,” Aragchi added.Aragchi’s comments align with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who said earlier this month that it would not be “wise” to engage in negotiations with the US, citing previous negotiations for the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that the US ended up scrapping in 2018.Last year, Khamenei expressed an openness to direct talks with the US, saying there was “no harm” in engaging with the “enemy.” He made the comments shortly after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was sworn in.Pezeshkian vowed during his campaign to engage directly with Western countries in an effort to get sanctions relief, and Khamenei’s comments appeared to give him the green light to pursue the idea. But since Trump re-imposed “maximum pressure,” both Khamenei and Pezeshkian have discouraged the idea of negotiations with the US.“If the US were sincere about negotiations, why did they sanction us?”Pezeshkian said on February 10. He added that Tehran “does not seek war…but will not yield to foreign pressure.”
Hysteria After IAEA Issues Quarterly Report on Iran’s Uranium Enrichment - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued its quarterly report on Iran’s civilian nuclear program, and like clockwork media outlets responded with hysterical speculation about Iranian nuclear weapons despite this report being not materially dissimilar from recent quarterly reports.The last report in November was that Iran had 182.3 kg of 60% enriched uranium, while the new report puts that stockpile at 274.8 kg. That the number grew is unsurprising, both because Iran isn’t using the 60% enriched uranium for anything and because Iran added to its number of centrifuges enriching uranium in November after the US and UK voted for the IAEA to condemn Iran.The initial JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran was meant to prevent these stockpiles growing by having Iran export the enriched uranium for further processing into fuel for civilian reactors. The US withdrew from the JCPOA during President Trump’s first term, and the reprocessing hasn’t been happening since then. 60% enriched uranium is still well short of weapons grade uranium, considered to be 90%-95%. Though media outlets are emphasizing that further enrichment is a “technical” matter, it should be noted that not only has Iran never attempted to enrich any higher than 60%, but promised back in November that it will keep enrichment entirely at 60% or below.Iran has been enriching at the 60% level since April 2021, and it has consistently been part of hawkish narratives to call for attacking Iran for its enrichment capabilities since then. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for attacks on Iran over its nuclear program since his first term in office in the 1990sthough, so if the 60% stockpile pretext wasn’t there, it would likely be something else.More relevant to the fear about Iran is that in January the CIA noted that there is no evidence Iran has decided to even attempt to build a nuclear weapon. Moreover, just a few weeks ago President Trump dismissed the idea of attacking Iran, saying he doesn’t believe that Iran wants a nuclear weapon. The vast majority of media coverage of the new IAEA report doesn’t mention any of this, and just speculates about what Iran might conceivably do.Predictably, Fox News went even further than other media outlets on this, quoting an Iranian general calling for “Operation True Promise 3” that would raze Tel Aviv to the ground, intending to imply this was a threatened nuclear attack on Israel.In reality, Operation True Promise 2 was the name given to the October conventional missile attack on Israel in retaliation to previous Israeli attacks, causing minor damage. There is no indication these new comments were anything but a threat for further conventional missile strikes.
US sanctions 4 Indian companies involved in trade of Iranian crude oil --The US has sanctioned more than 30 companies, vessels, and individuals worldwide, including four Indian companies, for their alleged involvement in the trade and transportation of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products. The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) described this action as part of a pressure campaign aimed at reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero. According to the OFAC, the sanctioned vessels are responsible for shipping tens of millions of barrels of crude oil, valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. The firms include Austenship Management Private Ltd (Noida), BSM Marine Ltd (Gurgaon), Cosmos Lines (Thanjavur), and Flux Maritime (Navi Mumbai). “Iran continues to rely on a shadowy network of vessels, shippers, and brokers to facilitate its oil sales and fund its destabilising activities,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. “The US will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk.” In 2019, the US administration imposed sanctions on Iranian oil, primarily due to concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, its regional influence, and its ballistic missile development. Following the sanctions, Iran began selling crude oil through a "shadow fleet" or "dark fleet" to avoid detection and circumvent international sanctions or regulations. As of now, India does not import crude oil from Iran due to US sanctions, though prior to the sanctions, Iran was one of India's top three sources of crude oil. Among those sanctioned are oil brokers based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong, tanker operators and managers in India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the head of Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), and the Iranian Oil Terminals Company. The OFAC said these entities and individuals are linked to activities that finance Iran’s destabilising operations. India-based Flux Maritime LLP is responsible for managing a vessel that loaded hundreds of thousands of barrels of heavy Iranian crude oil through a ship-to-ship transfer. Additionally, BSM Marine Limited Liability Partnership, Austinship Management Private Limited, and Cosmos Lines Inc. have been sanctioned for knowingly engaging in significant transactions related to the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of petroleum products or petrochemicals from Iran. This is not the first instance of Indian companies being placed under sanctions for involvement in sanctioned energy transportation and trade through the so-called shadow fleet of tankers. For example, in October, India-based Gabbaro Ship Services was sanctioned for its alleged involvement in the transportation of Iranian oil. In August and September, three India-registered shipping firms were sanctioned by the U.S. over their alleged involvement in transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, which is also under American sanctions.
US and Iraq hold talks on quick resumption of key oil pipeline – The US and Iraq discussed the resumption of a major pipeline that can transport oil from the Middle Eastern country to global markets after the link was shut almost since 2023 following regional cost disputes. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani agreed on the need for Iraq to quickly reopen the conduit, according to a Feb 25 statement on the US Department of State website. The potential restart of the pipeline, which Baghdad has said is likely to resume with about 185,000 barrels a day of initial flows, has weighed on oil prices since Iraq said that it was ready to bring it back online. The development comes at a delicate time for energy markets just as US President Donald Trump has been calling for lower oil prices. Crude on Feb 25 fell to the lowest level in 2025 on concerns over economic growth. Iraq has said exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region will remain within its overall Opec+ quota, but the country, which has a poor record of compliance, has not yet clarified how it will achieve that. Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani this week said the country is in touch with Turkey to discuss technical issues before it can resume shipments through the pipeline that runs to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. The project shut down in March 2023 in a payment dispute, and there have been various instances since then, when officials have claimed a restart was imminent. The US also pushed for a restart in the days after the pipeline was originally shut. Mr Rubio and Mr Al-Sudani also discussed the need for Iraq, which imports gas from Iran, to become energy independent, to reduce Tehran’s influence, and continue efforts to prevent terror group ISIS from resurging in the broader region, according to the statement.
Trump Declines To Say Whether the US Would Defend Taiwan If China Attacked - President Trump on Wednesday declined to say whether or not the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked the island.The president was asked if he would make it his policy to ensure “China never takes Taiwan by force” and replied, “I never comment on that. I don’t comment because I don’t ever want to put myself in that position.”For decades, the US has maintained a policy known as “strategic ambiguity” related to the potential defense of Taiwan, where it would not say one way or the other if the US would intervene.The purpose of strategic ambiguity is to avoid antagonizing China or emboldening Taiwan into thinking it would have US backing in a war. President Biden broke from this policy, repeatedly declaring he would intervene to defend Taiwan if China attacked, significantly raising tension with Beijing.By not commenting, Trump has returned to the policy of strategic ambiguity, although his administration is stacked with China hawks and is expected to continue increasing military and diplomatic support for Taiwan. Trump also said that the US is going to “have a good relationship with China,” although he is significantly ramping up the trade war.Secretary of State Marco Rubio was also asked about Taiwan in an interview with Fox News and said the US would work to “prevent” China from attacking Taiwan, signaling the Trump administration will continue providing military support, which is done in the name of deterrence but risks provoking Beijing.The State Department under Rubio has removed a line from its fact sheet on Taiwan that said the US “does not support Taiwan independence,” a move that angered China.Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said the change to the fact sheet caused “severe damage to China-US relations” and threatened “peace and stability” in the Taiwan Strait.
Trump, Hegseth purge Pentagon leadership to prepare for war and mass repression --US President Donald Trump fired the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Charles Q. Brown, and five other top military officers, in a purge suddenly announced late Friday. The other five include Admiral Lisa Franchetti, chief of naval operations and a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; General James Slife, vice chief of the Air Force; and the chief military lawyers for the Army, Navy and Air Force, known as judge adjutant generals, or JAGs. Trump said he would replace Brown with a recently retired Air Force general, Dan Caine, who spent the last three years as the top military liaison at the CIA after a career focused on commanding Special Operations forces, the assassination and covert wing of the military. Caine retired as a three-star general rather than a four-star, and might need a congressional waiver of the qualifications required to become chairman of the Joint Chiefs. The statements from Trump and his recently confirmed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth thanked Brown, Franchetti and Slife for their “service and dedication to our country,” but Hegseth had attacked Brown and Franchetti as “DEI hires” in a book published last year, claiming he did not know whether they had been promoted because of their race and gender or actual military skills. Hegseth was certainly the driving force in the removal of the three JAGs, as he has been a ferocious opponent of any effort to hold soldiers and officers accountable for war crimes. Only a handful of cases have been brought by the military legal system, which is run by the JAGs, but Hegseth used his position as a Fox News host during Trump’s first term to lobby for the quashing of legal proceedings or the issuance of outright pardons for soldiers who committed acts of murder, in some cases so flagrant that their own units turned them in for prosecution. In his announcement on Truth Social of the selection of General Caine to be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Trump cited Caine’s role in the final stages of the US war with ISIS during his first term. He claimed that during a presidential visit to US forces in Iraq, Caine had promised victory in a week rather than years and had donned a MAGA hat—assertions disputed by other officials on that visit. The New York Times reported Sunday night: Mr. Trump revealed another reason for his unconventional choice. He said that General Caine had been passed over for promotion by President Joseph R. Biden Jr., a claim that Biden officials said on Sunday they could not address. Aides say that in Mr. Trump’s mind, that perceived snub was a great endorsement, proof that General Caine has no specific loyalty to the previous administration. Whatever the details, it is clear that the principal goal of the purging of the Pentagon leadership is to strengthen Trump’s personal control over the military apparatus. It follows the swearing in of his political toady Hegseth, a former Army captain with deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan and the Guantanamo Bay torture center, but with no higher command experience, as secretary of defense. As the WSWS wrote at the time of Hegseth’s confirmation hearing: Of all Trump’s nominees, Hegseth’s politics are perhaps the most overtly fascist. He has openly defended war crimes and advocated the use of the military against domestic political opponents. The nomination of Hegseth is a demonstration of Trump’s complete contempt for any constitutional check on his use of military force, either at home or abroad.
Pete Hegseth defends military firings: 'The status quo hasn't worked very well' -Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Sunday defended the purge of top-level military officials amid blowback to the Friday night firings. The firing of Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. CQ Brown Jr., as well as five other top defense officials, has raised alarm from Democrats and former defense officials who say the decision will have a chilling effect on military leadership, which is already bracing for mass firings of civilian employees and sweeping cuts to defense budgets. In an interview on “Fox News Sunday,” Hegseth sought to play down the extraordinary move, saying, “There is civilian control of the military. Nothing about this is unprecedented.” “The president deserves to pick his key national security and military advisory team. There are lots of presidents who’ve made changes, from FDR to Eisenhower to H.W. Bush to Barack Obama,” he said, adding, “This is a reflection of the president wanting the right people around him to execute the national security approach we want to take.” Hegseth said Brown was “not the right man for the moment” and praised venture capitalist and retired Air Force Lt. Gen. Dan “Razin” Caine, whom President Trump has said he will nominate in Brown’s stead. “I have a lot of respect for CQ Brown. I got to know him over the course of a month. He’s an honorable man. Not the right man for the moment,” Hegseth said. “And ultimately, the president made that call, and Dan Razin Caine is going to be a fantastic chairman. I look forward to working with him.” Up Next - Angry Democratic donors turn off the flow of money Hegseth said Caine was among the only people who told Trump defeating ISIS could be done in a matter of weeks, which he said Trump appreciated. “And he will give straightforward advice, as he did to President Trump, on the defeat of ISIS. No one else said it could be done in a matter of weeks. Razin Caine said it could. And guess what? It happened.” “And the president respects leaders who untie the hands of war fighters in a very dangerous world,” Hegseth continued. “I think Dan Caine is the man to meet the moment.” Brown’s firing was announced in a Trump Truth Social post Friday evening, while Brown was in Texas visiting troops on the U.S.-Mexico border. Less than an hour later, Hegseth said in a statement that he is “requesting nominations” for replacements for Chief of Naval Operations Lisa Franchetti — the first woman to serve on the Joint Chiefs — and Air Force Vice Chief Gen. James Slife, revealing that they too would be axed.
U.S. lawmakers warn that China could use Musk to influence Trump - The Republican and Democratic leaders of the U.S. House of Representatives' select committee on China warned on Tuesday that Beijing may try to exert leverage with Elon Musk in a bid to win favorable U.S. policies, and that Washington must counter any such effort. Republican committee chair John Moolenaar and Democratic ranking member Raja Krishnamoorthi said they believed the Chinese Communist Party wants to use U.S. business leaders including Musk, who have commercial interests in China, to advance its goals in talks with Washington. "To the question of Elon Musk, I do believe that the CCP will try and leverage any opportunity," Moolenaar told an event hosted by the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington. "Are people going to be looking for that and make sure that his lane is one that is not influencing China policy? I believe that is the case," Moolenaar said, when asked whether Congress has a role in preventing Beijing from negotiating with the White House through Musk. Musk and the White House did not respond immediately to requests for comment. China's Washington embassy said China welcomed "mutually beneficial cooperation" with "people from all walks of life in the United States." "We are happy to see foreign-funded enterprises invest and start businesses in China, deepen their presence in the Chinese market and share development opportunities," embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said by email. China has some pressing priorities. Just over a month into his second term, President Donald Trump has announced additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, called for greater restrictions on Chinese investment in the U.S., and named China hardliners to key posts. Musk, the world's richest man and among Trump's biggest donors in the 2024 election, could be attractive to Beijing as a potential conduit to Trump because he has become one of the president's closest White House advisers. The billionaire also for years has had contact with senior Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping. China may also be able to grant Musk things that he wants. His biggest business interest in China is electric car company Tesla, which he leads as CEO. Tesla delivered 36.7% of its cars to customers in China last year, its second-largest market worldwide based on sales. But Tesla's market share has declined in China as domestic electric vehicle makers have grown, and it has faced regulatory roadblocks to the rollout of its self-driving features there that could boost sales while regulators have allowed Chinese firms to move ahead. Apart from Tesla, some of Musk's other ventures, including commercial rocket and satellite firm SpaceX and social media platform X - the latter is banned in China - are viewed by Beijing as security risks.
National Endowment for Democracy Confirms Its Funding Has Been Suspended, Forcing It To ‘Halt All Partner Support’ - The National Endowment for Democracy (NED), a US-funded organization that meddles in elections and pushes regime change around the world in the name of spreading democracy, has confirmed reports that its funding from the US government has been frozen, forcing it to suspend operations.“The [NED] is currently unable to access its Congressionally appropriated funds, which sustain nearly all of its grantmaking and operations. As a result, for the first time in the organization’s four-decade history, it has been unable to meet its obligations and has been forced to suspend support for nearly 2,000 partners worldwide,” the NED said in a statement on Tuesday.While the NED presents itself as an “independent” organization, it is nearly entirely funded by the US government, which it acknowledged in the statement. The NED claimed that its funding should have been exempt from the Trump administration’s pause on foreign aid.“Ninety-five percent of NED’s funding is directly appropriated by Congress and is not considered foreign assistance. This funding therefore was not subject to the executive order freezing foreign assistance for a ninety-day review. However, despite being exempt, access to these funds has been inexplicably cut off, forcing NED to halt all partner support and furlough the majority of its staff,” the NED said.The NED, which was founded during the Cold War in 1983, received $315 million from the US government for the 2025 fiscal year. In 1991, Allen Weinstein, a co-founder of NED, acknowledged to The Washington Post that a lot of what the organization did was done “covertly 25 years ago by the CIA.”In the 1991 article, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius listed some examples of the NED’s “overt” action that was previously done by the CIA, including “providing money and moral support for pro-democracy groups, training resistance fighters, working to subvert communist rule.”The NED has been targeted by Elon Musk, who asked his followers in a recent post on X to list “all the evil things that NED has done.” Jim Bovard, a senior fellow at the Libertarian Institute, replied with an article about how he has been critical of the organization for 40 years.In a 2009 article for the Future Freedom Foundation, Bovard said the NED is “based on the notion that its meddling in foreign elections is automatically pro-democracy because the US government is the incarnation of democracy. NED has always operated on the principle that ‘what’s good for the US government is good for democracy.’”
Tulsi Gabbard to oust 100+ intelligence officers over explicit NSA chats - Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, has moved to fire more than 100 intelligence officers over explicit chats they allegedly sent around in an internal agency messaging board. Gabbard, who was confirmed as the nation’s top intelligence official earlier this month, stated that she spearheaded a directive Tuesday to oust the individuals who partook in the explicit conversations using the National Security Agency’s (NSA) “Intelink” platform. “There are over 100 people from across the intelligence community that contributed to and participated in … what is really just an egregious violation of trust,” Gabbard told Fox News’s Jesse Watters on Tuesday. “When you see what these people were saying — they were brazen in using an NSA platform intended for professional use to conduct this kind of really, really horrific behavior,” she said during her appearance on “Jesse Watters Primetime.” The messages were uncovered by conservative activist Christopher Rufo, who is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) sent also out a memo instructing all intelligence agencies to “identify the employees who participated in the NSA’s ‘obscene, pornographic, and sexually explicit’ chatrooms and to terminate their employment and revoke their security clearances,” ODNI spokesperson Alexa Henning wrote Tuesday on social platform X. NSA said in a Tuesday statement that the agency is aware of the posts that “appear to show inappropriate discussions” by personnel in the intelligence community (IC), and an internal probe is underway.
Intelligence Officials Continue Chat Messages Inquiry - Intelligence officials are continuing to investigate sexually explicit messages that were posted on a government chat tool, the National Security Agency said Friday, exchanges that prompted the nation’s top intelligence official to order the firing of more than 100 officersthis week.In a statement on Friday, a spokesman for the National Security Agency said the messages were posted on Intelink, a tool that the N.S.A. manages for the entire intelligence community.“N.S.A. takes the allegations of recently identified misconduct on Intelink very seriously,” the spokesman said in a statement. “Behavior of this type will not be tolerated on this or any other N.S.A.-hosted system.” The existence of the messages was disclosed on Monday by Christopher F. Rufo, a conservative activist. Intelligence officials confirmed that the National Security Agency managed the system that had been used for the sexually explicit chats.People briefed on the inquiry said some of the chat logs that were made public had been altered or manipulated, in some cases to remove classified markings or other material. But the people familiar with the inquiry said some context was removed from the exchanges and screenshots in other instances might not have been accurate representations.Long-serving U.S. civil servants said there was little doubt that some of what was posted was inappropriate for any workplace, much less a system in classified networks that is meant for intelligence sharing. At least one of the chat rooms involved was shut down last year, according to a U.S. official.One U.S. official said the people ordered to be fired were all participants in the chats and had made contributions. It was not clear how many of them had written inappropriate comments.Many of the messages that have come under scrutiny had to do with gender transition treatments and sexual matters. One of the chat rooms where some of the comments were posted focused on gender and transgender issues; it was unclear how many of the officers set to be fired were transgender.The Pentagon is moving to dismiss transgender troops from the ranks of the military. And critics of the move to fire dozens of intelligence officers have called it a purge of L.G.B.T.Q. workers, a charge that Trump administration officials deny.Tulsi Gabbard, the director of national intelligence, said on Fox News on Tuesday that she had issued a directive to fire more than 100 officers at 15 agencies and strip them of their security clearances.Many of those officers, including ones at the National Security Agency, were suspended. Other intelligence agencies reported Friday the results of their inquiry into how their employees used the chat system, U.S. officials said.The director of national intelligence does not have the power to directly fire officers at the N.S.A. or the C.I.A. Nevertheless, officials said Ms. Gabbard’s oversight position meant that her order would be carried out.
Trump Tariff Plan Spotlight's America's Dirty Little Energy Secret: Crude Oil From Canada -When President Donald Trump announced plans to slap a 10 percent tariff on oil and gas imports from Canada, he shined an uncomfortable spotlight on a little-known fact about American households. Millions of them rely on Canadian oil to keep warm. While the idea of a tank full of heating oil firing up the furnace may sound quaint to some, it’s how nearly five million U.S. households heated their home in 2023, according to the United States Energy Information Administration. About 80 percent of them are in the Northeast. In New Hampshire, more than 40 percent of residents use home heating oil, and it Maine it’s more than half. Much of that oil comes, not from Texas or Oklahoma, but from Canada. As a result, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association the cost of oil-based heating would increase by $117 to $1,576 on average if Trump’s tariffs take effect. America imports Canadian oil because of its proximity and the network of established pipelines that serve both nations. But it also uses Canadian oil because it’s the sort of heavy crude similar to the oil from California that many U.S. refineries are designed to process. Around 25 percent of all oil refined in America comes from Canada. The alternative to heating oil is natural gas. Cheaper to produce – and healthier for the environment – it accounts for 43.1 percent of electricity generation in the U.S., according to federal statistics. Not only that, but Pennsylvania, America’s second-largest producer of natural gas, could easily provide the natural gas needed to replace heating oil demand in the region. And so, while the public policy debate has largely focused on the tariff policy, people in the energy sector are asking another question: Why are so many Americans still burning oil when the U.S. is the largest producer of cleaner natural gas? Because of a successful effort by the Biden administration and its green allies to block energy infrastructure to take natural gas where it’s most needed. There have been many pipeline proposals to take natural gas from the prolific Marcellus and Utica shale regions of Pennsylvania, says Marc Brown with Consumer Energy Alliance. But those proposals ran into heavy resistance, particularly in blue states like Massachusetts and New York. “Any one of those projects would have reduced energy prices, increased the electricity grid’s reliability, and reduced emissions.” Supporters of expanded U.S. natural gas note the irony of environmental activists and Democratic governors going to court to keep more Americans burning imported oil. New York banned fracking in 2014 after a six-year moratorium sparked by unverified environmental concerns, despite a 2009 ConEdison report praising the state’s “safe, robust natural gas infrastructure,” including 10 pipelines. Natural gas allies received a boost in 2012 when the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) argued prices would likely drop if a pipeline from New Jersey to New York was expanded. The EIA said the expanded pipeline would help reduce bottlenecks from natural gas rich Pennsylvania to New Hampshire and the rest of New England. But three years after New York banned fracking, the administration of then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) halted two major natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania. In Massachusetts, Gov. Maura Healey (D) recently demanded energy companies lower their prices after the state’s public utilities commission approved a 25 percent price increase on natural gas. But the progressive Democrat previously bragged that she “stopped two pipelines from coming into this state.” Access to natural gas in the Bay State has become so problematic that in 2018 and 2019, some Massachusetts utilities issued moratoriums on new residential natural gas hookups due to “insufficient pipeline capacity.” Energy companies shifted focus to truck transportation of oil and natural gas, extending delivery time of shipments – and driving up costs. But that could change under the Trump administration, Brown said. “Hopefully, projects receive approvals so that they can deliver much-needed relief to families and businesses–especially to those on low and fixed incomes that can least afford the exorbitantly high energy prices we see in the Northeast.” And it may already be happening. Trump has vowed to revive the proposed Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York that was abandoned in 2020. “It will bring down the energy prices in New York and in all of New England by 50, 60, 70 percent,” Trump said.
Trump says tariffs on Canada and Mexico 'will go forward' -- President Donald Trump said Monday that sweeping U.S. tariffson imports from Canada and Mexico "will go forward" when a monthlong delay on their implementation expires next week."The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule," Trump said when asked at a White House press conference if the postponed tariffs on the two U.S. trading partners would soon go back into effect.The president claimed that the U.S. has "been taken advantage of" by foreign nations on "just about everything," and reiterated his plan to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs."So the tariffs will go forward, yes, and we're going to make up a lot of territory," Trump said.Trump signed executive orders on Feb. 1 imposing 25% tariffson products from Mexico and Canada, as well as 10% duties on Canadian energy.The president, who has praised the use of tariffs as both a negotiating tool and a revenue source, based the orders on the alleged failures of Mexico and Canada to stop crime and drug trafficking at their respective U.S. borders.But Trump paused the new tariffs two days later, after Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made separate pledges to boost their border-policing efforts.Trump, announcing the new agreements on Truth Social on Feb. 3, said the tariffs on Canadian goods would be paused for 30 days, while the duties on Mexican imports would be postponed for one month.He said that during that interval, his administration would engage in negotiations with Mexico and pursue a "final Economic deal with Canada."Trump, in his norm-breaking first month in office, also slapped 10% tariffs on Chinese imports and announced a plan to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on American trading partners. China has already retaliated with its own targeted tariffs on U.S. imports, stoking fears that a trade war between the two adversarial superpowers could rapidly escalate.A similar fear has developed with regard to Mexico and Canada, who are among America's closest allies and top trading partners.Before Trump paused his tariffs on the two U.S. neighbors, both Trudeau and Sheinbaum announced plans to install retaliatory tariffs on American imports.
Nearly 200K sign petition to revoke Musk’s Canadian citizenship -Thousands of individuals have signed an online petition urging the revocation of tech billionaire Elon Musk’s Canadian citizenship over his involvement in the Trump administration, which the petitioners argue undermines Canada’s sovereignty. The petition, which is progressing through the Canada’s House of Commons, was filed by Qualia Reed, an author from Nanaimo, British Columbia. Democrat MP Charlie Angus, a vocal critic of Musk, has also backed the petition, which had garnered over 34,000 signatures from across Canada by Saturday evening, according to Canadian outlet CTV News. The petition calls on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to cancel Musk’s citizenship and Canadian passport. An electronic petition is required to have 500 or more signatures to be presented to the House of Commons, which may then lead to a formal response from the government. Musk was born in South Africa, but he holds Canadian citizenship due to his mother, Maye Musk, who was born in the Canadian city of Regina, Saskatchewan. Carville suggests Trump admin will 'collapse' within 30 days The petition accuses Musk of engaging “in activities that go against the national interest of Canada” by acting as an adviser to President Trump. It adds that the billionaire has become “a member of a foreign government that is attempting to erase Canadian sovereignty.”
Tariffs Will Continue Until Morale Improves -The relative strength of the US economy makes tariff threats an effective negotiating tool, and “America First” trade and security priorities mean tariffs will remain a feature of Trump's second term. Allocations to volatility and TIPS should prove the best hedges for headline risk and the stagflationary impulse from implemented tariffs.As tariff announcements start to dominate headlines, we provide three key points to serve as anchors:
- Weak rest of world (i.e., non-US) growth means less bargaining power for targeted countries
- Demand is the US's key “export” and the ultimate currency
- Tariffs are here to stay as MAGA 2.0 embraces Reagan + Roosevelt
At inauguration, we noted the slim Republican House majority could make tariffs a higher priority (relative to tax cuts) in Trump's second administration than his first. One key difference between today and 2018 is the global growth backdrop, raising the likelihood of quicker resolutions to tariff threats in order to avoid a significant growth downturn in targeted countries.On the growth front, the US economy is much stronger relative to the Euro Area and China than at the onset of the first trade war in 2018 (which was preceded by a period of “globally synchronized growth”).This raises the stakes for non-US countries, whose economies would come under further pressure from a protracted trade war (see shaded area above). It's possible these growth imbalances encourage targeted countries to settle tariff disputes quickly (as seen today with delayed tariffs on Mexico).On top of the favorable cyclical backdrop, the US's role as the chief source of global external demand gives it more bargaining power in trade negotiations.The US trade deficit has persisted for the past 25 years and represents the US's role as the “shock absorber” for global excess production. In other words, one can consider consumption demand to be the key export of the US to the rest of the world. So, any like-for-like retaliation will hurt non-US countries more given the US (as the chief buyer) can turn to other sellers more easily than a seller can find a buyer that can replace the US.
Tariff threats and uncertainty could weigh on consumers, drag down US economy, gov’t report suggests — Ongoing tariff threats from Washington and potentially sweeping government job cuts have darkened consumers’ mood and may be weighing on an otherwise mostly healthy economy. Data released Friday showed that consumers slashed their spending by the most since February 2021, even as their incomes rose. On a positive note, inflation cooled, but President Donald Trump’s threats to impose large import taxes on Canada, Mexico, and China — the United States’ top trading partners — will likely push prices higher, economists say. Some companies are already planning to raise prices in response. Americans cut their spending by 0.2% in January from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Friday, likely in part because of unseasonably cold weather. Yet the retreat may be hinting at more caution by consumers amid rising economic uncertainty. “The roller coaster of news headlines emanating from Washington D.C. is likely going to push businesses to the sidelines for a time and even appears to be impacting consumers,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander, in an email. The reduction in consumer spending — coupled with a surge of imports in January, also reported Friday, as companies likely sought to front-run tariffs — led the Federal Reserve’s Atlanta branch to project that the economy would shrink 1.5% at an annual rate in the January-March quarter, a sharp slowdown from the 2.3% growth in the final three months of last year. Most analysts still expect the economy to expand in the first quarter, but at a much slower pace. Stanley lowered his estimate for first-quarter growth to just 1.25%, from about 2.25%. Trump on Oval Office spat with Zelensky: 'This is going to be great television' Inflation declined to 2.5% in January compared with a year earlier, down from 2.6% in December, the Commerce Department said Friday. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices dropped to 2.6%, the lowest since June, from 2.9%. Economists noted that inflation would likely keep cooling, but the progress could be upended by tariffs. Trump said Thursday he would impose 25% duties on imports from Canada and Mexico, though just 10% on oil from Canada. He also said he wanted to double the current tariff on imports from China to 20%.
Trump ends oil concession agreement with Venezuela -President Trump said the Biden-era “Concession Agreement” with Venezuela will be terminated as the country takes too long to take back its deportees.“I am therefore ordering that the ineffective and unmet Biden ‘Concession Agreement’ be terminated as of the March 1st option to renew,” Trump said on Truth Social. “Thank you for your attention to this matter!”Trump said he would be “reversing the concessions” from the “oil transaction agreement” from Nov. 26, 2022.That day, President Biden allowed Chevron to pump oil in Venezuela. The country has the largest oil reserves of any single nation, but U.S. sanctions and lack of investing funds have limited Venezuela’s ability to produce. Biden eased years-long sanctions through that action.While Trump didn’t explicitly call out Chevron in his post, the U.S. didn’t issue any additional licenses that day, Reuters noted.The decisions are intertwined with Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro’s time in office.In his post, Trump slammed the “Electoral conditions” within Venezuela and argued Maduro’s regime failed to meet the concessions given by Biden.“Additionally, the regime has not been transporting the violent criminals that they sent into our Country (the Good Ole’ U.S.A.) back to Venezuela at the rapid pace that they had agreed to,” Trump said.
Congress Overturns Biden-Era Methane Fee on Energy Producers (Reuters) — The U.S. Senate on Thursday voted on a resolution that would overturn the Biden administration's proposed fee on methane emissions, one of the previous Environmental Protection Agency's final measures to force big oil and gas producers to slash emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas. The Senate passed the resolution under Congressional Review Act process, which allows Congress to reverse new federal rules with a simple majority, effectively overturning the escalating charge on oil and gas producers set by the agency they have called a tax. It follows passage of a similar resolution by the House on Wednesday. The methane fee was mandated by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which directed the EPA to set a charge on methane emissions for facilities that emit more than 25,000 tons per year of carbon dioxide equivalent. Methane is the most prevalent greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide that tends to leak into the atmosphere undetected from drill sites, gas pipelines and other oil and gas infrastructure. The fee started at $900 per metric ton of methane emitted in 2024, and increased to $1,200 in 2025, and $1,500 for 2026 and beyond. The EPA last year finalized methane emission and reporting standards for the oil and gas sector, which faced less opposition from oil and gas companies. Industry groups applauded the passage of the resolutions in the House and Senate and urged President Donald Trump to quickly sign the legislation. "The Biden administration and Democrats in Congress passed the methane tax to single out and punish the oil and natural gas industry despite its already burdensome EPA regulatory framework," said Independent Petroleum Association of America President Jeff Eshelman. Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, top Democrat on the Senate environment committee, said the resolution would raise energy prices and weaken environmental quality for consumers. The American Petroleum Institute (API) also praised the passage of a Congressional Review Act resolution aimed at repealing the EPA’s Waste Emissions Charge (WEC), a methane fee established under the Inflation Reduction Act. API Executive Vice President Amanda Eversole called the measure a “duplicative, punitive tax” that hinders energy innovation. She emphasized that industry-led efforts have already driven methane emissions down while increasing production, advocating for policies that support American energy leadership.
Trump administration pushes to fingerprint migrants illegally in US - The Trump administration is pushing migrants to be fingerprinted for a new registry of people illegally in the United States, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced late Tuesday. The requirement points to a little-used provision of the Immigration and Nationality Act that requires anyone over the age of 14 who is unlawfully present in the country to register with authorities and alert the government of any change in address. Speaking with Fox News after the announcement, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said the platform would be used to help migrants “relocate” to their home country. “The Alien Registration Act says that within 30 days of being in this country illegally, someone must register with the federal government. They will be fingerprinted. They must announce that they are here. And if they do so, they can avoid criminal charges and fines and we will help them relocate right back to their home country,” she said during an appearance on “Jesse Watters Primetime.” The move will still need to be published as an interim rule before it takes effect. Those in the U.S. on visas and other legal pathways already are fingerprinted and coordinate with immigration agencies. Expanding the process to those in the country unlawfully is not expected to drive voluntary compliance. The government is largely unaware of where the nation’s estimated more than 11 million people illegally in the country live, and the threat of deportation is likely to make most migrants hesitant to register. Noem’s department, however, pointed to potential criminal penalties for anyone who does not comply, including six months in prison or a $1,000 fine.
Judge temporarily blocks Trump refugee ban - A federal judge on Tuesday blocked the Trump administration from suspending the U.S. refugee program, siding with resettlement groups that challenged a Day One order from the president.U.S. District Judge Jamal Whitehead said in his ruling after a hearing Tuesday that President Trump’s actions amount to an “effective nullification of congressional will” in setting up the nation’s refugee admissions program.“The president has substantial discretion … to suspend refugee admissions,” Whitehead told the parties. “But that authority is not limitless.”The bench ruling grants a request for a preliminary injunction on the executive order.Trump’s order barred processing of those fleeing persecution and danger for 90 days as administration officials study whether accepting refugees is “in the interests of the United States,” leaving it to the president to determine when to do so. The suit was filed on behalf of Church World Service, Lutheran Community Services Northwest, and HIAS, formerly the Hebrew Immigrant Aid Society, and challenged not just the suspension but the abrupt cutoff of funding to those that aid refugees. That includes for refugees that had already arrived to the U.S under the Biden administration.Nine refugees are also listed as plaintiffs in the suit, representing those cut off from accessing the program, a group that includes many refugees from Iraq and Afghanistan Even before the order formally took effect, the State Department suspended refugee flights, saying it was “coordinating with implementing partners to suspend refugee arrivals to the United States and cease processing activities.”A federal judge last week however declined to reinstate refugee funding in a similar case brought by Catholic bishops.
Trump floats $5 million 'gold card' as a route to U.S. citizenship - - U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday floated the idea of replacing a visa program for foreign investors with a so-called "gold card" that could be bought for $5 million as a route to American citizenship. Trump told reporters he will replace the "EB-5" immigrant investor visa program, which allows foreign investors of large sums of money that create or preserve U.S. jobs to become permanent residents, with a so-called "gold card." The EB-5 program grants "green cards" to foreigners promising to invest in U.S. businesses. "We are going to be selling a gold card," Trump said. "We are going to be putting a price on that card of about $5 million," he added. "It's going to give you green card privileges plus its going to be a route to (American) citizenship, and wealthy people would be coming into our country by buying this card," Trump said, adding that details about the scheme will come out in two weeks. Trump added it is possible Russian oligarchs could qualify for the gold cards, when asked by a journalist if those people would be eligible. "Yeah, possibly. Hey. I know some Russian oligarchs that are very nice people," he said. The EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program, administered by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, was created by Congress in 1990 to "stimulate the U.S. economy through job creation and capital investment by foreign investors," according to the USCIS website. "The EB-5 program ... it was full of nonsense, make believe and fraud, and it was a way to get a green card that was low price. So the president said, rather than having this sort of ridiculous EB-5 program, we're going to end the EB-5 program. We're going to replace it with the Trump gold card," Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters on Tuesday.
Ocasio-Cortez asks DOJ: Am I under investigation? -- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) wants to know if she’s in legal hot water. In a highly unusual letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi, Ocasio-Cortez noted that she’s been a target of repeated criticism from Tom Homan, President Trump’s “border czar,” after she hosted a webinar designed to inform immigrants of their legal rights in potential confrontations with deportation agents. Ocasio-Cortez has fiercely defended her actions, saying they were well within her First Amendment rights to free speech — an assertion she amplified to Bondi. But she still wants “clarity on whether the Department of Justice (DOJ) has yielded to political pressure and attempts to weaponize the agency against elected officials whose speech they disagree with.”“It has been 14 days since Mr. Homan first threatened to weaponize your agency, but I have not yet heard any referral from the federal government,” she wrote. “Homan’s actions undercut core Constitutional rights and further transparency is necessary.”Trump, on the campaign trail, had vowed to make the deportation of millions of people living in the country illegally a top priority of his second term. And Homan, who served as a top immigration enforcer under President Obama and in Trump’s first term, is leading the charge. In a series of news interviews this month, Homan suggested Ocasio-Cortez had violated federal laws by hosting the Feb. 12 “Know Your Rights” seminar, which she’s characterized as offering “practical guidance on how to interact with” deportation officials. Homan saw something more sinister. A day after the event, he said Ocasio-Cortez might be “impeding” the government’s efforts to enforce immigration laws. Homan said he’d sent an email to the deputy attorney general asking him to examine the episode.“Maybe AOC is going to be in trouble now,” Homan said in a Feb. 13 interview with Fox News pundit Laura Ingraham, referring to Ocasio-Cortez by her initials.Since then, he’s amplified the threat repeatedly, taking to more cable news programs to suggest that Ocasio-Cortez was trying “to educate people how they evade law enforcement.”In her letter to Bondi, Ocasio-Cortez quotes the First Amendment, which prohibits “abridging the freedom of speech … or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”She then accuses Homan of using the DOJ “to politically intimidate duly elected officials” — something she deemed “a textbook threat to the right to free speech in the United States.” “Threatening criminal proceedings for exercising the First Amendment is itself a violation of the First Amendment,”Ocasio-Cortez wrote. “Educating the public about their rights, especially in a time of rising uncertainty, is a key part of our responsibility as elected officials,” she continued. “A government that uses threats of DOJ investigations to suppress free speech is a threat to all, regardless of political ideology.”
VA fires another 1,400 employees - The Department of Veterans Affairs on Monday fired another 1,400 employees amid outcry over a lack of transparency from the agency after 1,000 workers were axed earlier this month. The VA said the individuals dismissed were “non-mission critical” probationary employees who have served less than two years, according to a department statement. The agency defined the non-mission critical positions as those that were diversity, inclusion and equity-related, “among other roles.” It also claimed their dismissals will save the VA more than $83 million per year — to be redirected back toward health care, benefits and services for veterans. “These and other recent personnel decisions are extraordinarily difficult, but VA is focused on allocating its resources to help as many Veterans, families, caregivers, and survivors as possible,” VA Secretary Doug Collins said in the statement. “These moves will not hurt VA health care, benefits or beneficiaries. In fact, Veterans are going to notice a change for the better.” The move follows the Feb. 13 firings of 1,000 probationary VA employees, a decision that caused outrage and condemnation among Democrat lawmakers and veterans groups. Senate Veterans’ Affairs Committee ranking member Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) called the latest firings an “illegal termination” that comes at a time of critical VA staffing shortages and increased demand for its services.
Trump’s federal purge threatens Native American universities and tribal sovereignty -- The Trump administration’s aggressive efforts to slash the federal workforce have dealt a severe blow to Native American educational institutions, exacerbating the long history of violent dispossession and ongoing oppression of Indigenous communities under capitalism. The administration’s mass firings, executed under the guise of “government efficiency,” are dismantling essential services and threatening the future of tribal self-determination. Among the hardest-hit institutions is Haskell Indian Nations University, which has been forced to lay off dozens of employees, placing its accreditation at risk and jeopardizing student services. Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute (SIPI) in Albuquerque, New Mexico, has similarly lost seven employees, and broader cuts have ravaged agencies that provide critical support to Native communities. The Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) has lost 188 employees, while 2,600 Department of the Interior workers have been dismissed. Initially, 20 percent of the Indian Health Service workforce faced layoffs, although these cuts were later withdrawn following significant backlash. However, the pattern is clear: Native-serving programs are on the chopping block. The layoffs are part of a broader restructuring orchestrated by Elon Musk, who has been granted sweeping powers by Donald Trump over federal agencies through the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Under Musk’s directive, the Trump administration has implemented large-scale reductions in the federal workforce, specifically targeting federal oversight agencies, public education, and environmental protections. These cuts serve the dual purpose of funding tax breaks for the wealthy and increasing allocations to military and law enforcement agencies. Trump’s executive order, which enabled the firings, mandates federal agency heads to undertake mass layoffs while specifically targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. The implications are clear: tribal educational institutions, many of which operate under Indian Self-Determination and Education Assistance Act (ISDEAA) contracts, are facing an existential crisis. Sierra Two Bulls, an Oglala Lakota from the Oglala Sioux Tribe, was among those laid off. She had been a faculty member at Haskell Indian Nations University for six months after serving as an adjunct instructor for seven years. Beyond the loss of her position, Two Bulls expressed deep concern for her students, many of whom will now face disruptions to their education. Speaking to the LastRealIndians website, she said, “I am devastated and heartbroken not only for myself and my colleagues but also for all our students. The first is my job security with great benefits like my healthcare plan. The second is I am no longer able to teach and empower our next generation of Native students who are our future leaders.” The ISDEAA, passed in 1975, was a concession to the struggle for tribal self-governance. The law granted Native nations greater control over education, healthcare, and other essential services, allowing tribes to contract with federal agencies to administer their own programs. The act empowered tribes to direct resources according to their needs, fostering self-governance and cultural preservation. It allowed tribes to assume control of educational institutions, ensuring that curricula reflect Indigenous knowledge and traditions. The Trump administration’s mass firings, however, undermine the very foundations of ISDEAA, as the loss of federal personnel stalls the administration of self-determination contracts and leaves tribal schools and colleges in limbo. The consequences of these cuts are dire and far-reaching. The mass layoffs at BIA and the Department of the Interior signal a broader rollback of financial support for tribal programs, leading to uncertainty and budget shortfalls for Native-run institutions. With fewer personnel to process contracts and oversee programs, tribes face delays in receiving federal funds, threatening education, healthcare, and infrastructure projects. By slashing the workforce responsible for administering self-governance agreements, the administration is effectively re-centralizing power in Washington D.C., stripping tribes of their hard-won autonomy. The layoffs at Haskell and SIPI are only the beginning—tribal colleges and universities across the country will struggle to maintain faculty, student services, and accreditation.
Fired federal workers hunt for new jobs but struggle to replace their old ones --(AP) — HIRING: Park ranger. SEEKING: Nuclear submarine engineer. WANTED: Sled dog musher. If they seem unlikely postings, they probably are. But a laid-off federal worker can dream. Axed from jobs not easily found outside government, thousands of federal workers caught in President Donald Trump’s cost-cutting efforts now face a difficult search for work. “If you’re doing, say, vegetation sampling and prescribed fire as your main work, there aren’t many jobs,” says Eric Anderson, 48, of Chicago, who was fired Feb. 14 from his job as a biological science technician at Indiana Dunes National Park. All the years of work Anderson put in — the master’s degree, the urban forestry classes, the wildfire deployments — seemed to disappear in a single email dismissing him. He’s hoping there’s a chance he’s called back, but if he isn’t, he’s not sure what he’ll do next. He was so consumed with his firing that he broke a molar from grinding his teeth. But he knows he’s caught in something larger than himself, as the new administration unfurls its chaotic cost-cutting agenda. “This is someone coming in and tossing a hand grenade and seeing what will happen,” he says. The federal job cuts are the work of the Department of Government Efficiency, headed by billionaire Elon Musk, who has been tearing through agencies looking for suspected waste. No official tally of firings has been released, but the list stretches into the thousands and to nearly every part of the country. More than 80% of the federal government’s 2.4-million-person civilian workforce is based outside of the Washington area. Cathy Nguyen, 51, of Honolulu, was laid off last month from her job at USAID, where she helped manage the PEPFAR program, which combats HIV/AIDS. Her firing not only brought the turmoil of finding new health insurance, halting saving for retirement and her kids’ college education, and trimming spending for things like the family subscription to Disney Plus — it also has forced her to reconsider her career goals. PEPFAR is a landmark effort that stretches across dozens of countries and is credited with saving some 26 million lives. Nothing rivals it. So where does a former PEPFAR worker go? “It’s requiring me to rethink how I want to spend my professional life,” Nguyen says. As specialized as Nguyen’s work has been, Mitch Flanigan may have her beat. Flanigan, 40, was assigned to the sled dog kennels at Denali National Park and Preserve in Alaska until he was fired Feb. 14. It never brought a huge paycheck, but where else could he get to work as a dog musher against such a breathtaking panorama? He has appealed his firing with the U.S. Merit Systems Protection Board. “I still kind of want to fight for the job that I lost,” he says. “I’m not really making much money, it’s just fun and it’s a unique thing to be a part of.”
House votes to overturn rule implementing methane fee - The House on Wednesday voted to overturn a Biden-era rule implementing a program that charges oil and gas companies for excess methane emissions. The vote was 220-206-1.Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar (Texas), Jared Golden (Maine), Vicente Gonzalez (Texas), Adam Gray (Calif.), Kristen McDonald Rivet (Mich.) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) voted with nearly every Republican in favor of the measure. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) was the only Republican to vote with Democrats against it. Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) voted present.The Senate is expected to soon hold a similar vote and the resolution is likely to pass there as well and ultimately be signed by President Trump.However, overturning the rule does not necessarily eliminate the program, which was written into law in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Fully overturning it appears to require additional legislation, and Republicans are expected to try to repeal it as part of their broader legislative package.
EPA head urges Trump to reconsider scientific finding that underpins climate action, AP sources say (AP) — In a potential landmark action, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency has privately urged the Trump administration to reconsider a scientific finding that has long been the central basis for U.S. action against climate change. In a report to the White House, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called for a rewrite of the agency’s finding that determined planet-warming greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare, according to four people who were briefed on the matter but spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the recommendation is not public. The 2009 finding under the Clean Air Act is the legal underpinning of a host of climate regulations for motor vehicles, power plants and other pollution sources. A spokesperson for the EPA on Wednesday declined to reveal Zeldin’s recommendation, which was made last week under an executive order from Republican President Donald Trump. The order, issued on Trump’s first day in office, directed the EPA to submit a report “on the legality and continuing applicability” of the endangerment finding. The Washington Post first reported that Zeldin had urged the White House to strike down the endangerment finding. The Obama-era finding “is the linchpin of the federal government’s policies for what the president and I call the climate hoax,” said Steve Milloy, a former Trump transition adviser who disputes mainstream science on climate change. U “If you pull this (finding) out, everything EPA does on climate goes away,” Milloy told the AP.
Agriculture secretary outlines strategy for lowering egg costs -U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Brooke Rollins outlined a “five pronged strategy” to lower the cost of eggs in a Wednesday Wall Street Journal op-ed citing the avian flu as an influencing factor in price hikes.“The Agriculture Department will invest up to $1 billion to curb this crisis and make eggs affordable again. We are working with the Department of Government Efficiency to cut hundreds of millions of dollars of wasteful spending,” Rollins wrote. “We will repurpose some of those dollars by investing in long-term solutions to avian flu, which has resulted in about 166 million laying hens being culled since 2022.”The Agriculture secretary said that $500 million will be allocated to help U.S. poultry producers implement “gold-standard biosecurity measures” with a focus on protective gear and procedures that decrease the risk of contamination. She added that officials will consider temporarily importing eggs to lower costs and said legislation like California’s Proposition 12, which upholds space requirements for egg-laying hens, is driving up production costs and will be examined.Rollins also stressed that researchers are exploring the use of vaccines and therapeutics for egg-laying hens.
OPM tells HR leaders that response to Elon Musk email is 'voluntary' --- The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) informed agency leaders that employee response to an email asking for a recap of what they accomplished last week is voluntary and that failure to do so will not be considered a resignation. The guidance given to the human resources officers at every agency undercuts a Saturday push from Elon Musk demanding all federal employees send five bullet notes of what they accomplished in the week prior by 11:59 p.m. EST Monday or face removal. “This afternoon, OPM during a Chief Human Capital Officers Council meeting, informed agencies that employee responses to the OPM email is voluntarily,” according to an email obtained by The Hill. “OPM also clarified that a non-response to the email does not equate to a resignation.” OPM did not immediately respond to request for comment. The guidance from OPM to human resources leaders comes amid a turf war between agency leaders and Musk.
Tulsi Gabbard Asks Intelligence Employees To Ignore Musk's OPM Email -- Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has reportedly ordered all intelligence community officers not to respond to an official email asking them to summarize their work over the last week or risk termination. The ‘Submit work report or lose job’ ultimatum was proposed by President Donald Trump's close advisor, Elon Musk, as a way to downsize the federal government. According to the New York Times, Gabbard asked IC employees not to share their work details as they may contain sensitive and classified information. “Given the inherently sensitive and classified nature of our work, IC employees should not respond to the OPM email," Gabbard wrote. Several Trump-appointed federal agency heads have directed employees not to wait to comply with the email including the Department of Defense, the FBI, the Justice Department, and the State Department. Meanwhile, Elon Musk defended the email program, writing on X, "A large number of good responses have been received already. These are the people who should be considered for promotion." The email in question was sent to all 2.3 million government workers by the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which manages the federal workforce, at 11:59 PM Monday EST. It was titled “What did you do last week?” and read, “Please reply to this email with approx. 5 bullets of what you accomplished last week and cc your manager. Please do not send any classified information, links, or attachments." President Trump has tasked Musk with leading a temporary agency called the Department of Government Efficiency to weed out alleged wasteful government spending and slash the size of the federal bureaucracy. Musk has swiftly gotten to task, shutting down departments like USAID and firing employees.
FBI's Kash Patel advises staff to hold off on responding to Elon Musk- FBI Director Kash Patel told employees to hold off on responding to an email, sent at tech billionaire Elon Musk’s direction, asking federal workers to list their accomplishments during the previous week. In a memo obtained by NewsNation, Patel said the bureau would handle future responses to the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) inquiries. “FBI personnel may have received an email from OPM requesting information,” Patel wrote in his message. “The FBI, through the Office of the Director, is in charge of all of our review processes, and will conduct reviews in accordance with FBI procedures.” “When and if further information is required, we will coordinate the responses,” Patel continued. “For now, please pause any responses.” Musk — who has led the White House effort to slash the federal government — announced Saturday afternoon on his social platform X that federal employees would soon get an email “requesting to understand what they got done last week.” “Failure to response will be taken as a resignation,” he added. The message, reviewed by The Hill, told federal employees to “please reply to this email with approx. 5 bullet points of what you accomplished last week,” copying their manager, by 11:59 p.m. EST Monday. The FBI is not alone in instructing its personnel not to reply to the email, at least for now. NBC News reported that the State Department also instructed its employees not to respond. “The State Department will respond on behalf of the Department. No employee is obligated to report their activities outside of their Department chain of command,” read a notice from Tibor Nagy, acting under secretary for management at the State Department. The Hill has reached out to the State Department for comment.
Confusion, anger grows as Trump-Musk deadline passes for federal workers to justify their jobs or be fired -- Confusion and anger is mounting among federal workers following the midnight expiration of a deadline to send an email to justify their jobs. The ultimatum was sent via the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) from the so-called Department of Governmental Efficiency, headed by the fascist billionaire Elon Musk, demanding every federal worker explain “what they got done last week. Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation.” The move is the next step in the Trump government’s campaign to slash hundreds of thousands of federal jobs and destroy whole federal programs on which tens of millions of people rely. Adding to the chaos were conflicting signals sent from the Trump administration Monday afternoon. Musk barked on Monday morning that “Those who do not take this email seriously will soon be furthering their career elsewhere.” In remarks to the press in the Oval Office afterwards, Trump suggested that those who did not reply could be “fired or semi-fired,” without explaining what “semi-fired” could possibly mean. This was immediately contradicted by a notice from the OPM calling the responses “voluntary.” But the memo then contradicted itself by declaring that workers should follow guidance from management in their respective agencies. Many, such as the Department of Education, have sent directives ordering workers to reply to the email. Several departments in the military-intelligence apparatus, including the Department of Defense and the Department of Justice sent directives to workers ordering them not to reply, citing the sensitive nature of their staff’s work and already existing internal review protocols. This was presented in the corporate press as signs of growing divisions within the Trump administration. But the military-intelligence apparatus is virtually the only portion of the government which Trump seeks to massively expand. He is seeking to establish a dictatorship, ripping up the constitution and converting the United States into an armed camp, to suppress the “enemy within,” ie., the working class, and prepare for new and catastrophic wars. Nevertheless, signs indicate that Musk and Trump plan to move extremely quickly and brutally. NBC News reported yesterday that Musk is planning on using artificial intelligence to analyze responses, effectively farming out to computer programs decisions that will impact the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and tens of millions who rely on programs under threat. Given these circumstances, it is entirely possible that the conflicting messages Monday were a deliberate attempt at entrapment by the Trump White House.
Trump administration backtracks from latest Musk storm - The Trump administration on Monday appeared to be quickly retreating from Elon Musk’s demand that all federal workers send an email by the end of the day highlighting their achievements or resign. The missive from Musk, which echoed a tactic he used during his 2022 takeover of the social platform X, then known as Twitter, led to a chaotic weekend for thousands of federal workers. Allies or Trump picks leading federal agencies, including FBI Director Kash Patel, told their workers to ignore the order and that they would make decisions on their own personnel. By Monday afternoon, responding to the email was voluntary, according to guidance from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), a clear signal that even within the administration, some saw Musk as having gone too far. On Capitol Hill, Republicans criticized Musk, saying what he had done was inappropriate. “I don’t think it was handled very well in terms of the surprise element of it or what the point of it was,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) said. “That I think was confusing, because I think there were a couple different explanations. I think a little clarification on the voluntary part is probably good.” Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) said the demand was outside Musk’s purview. Next Stay “I was glad to see some of the new department and agency heads push back against that. It should not be Elon Musk’s call, and I was glad to see the pushback,” Collins said. A source close to Trump’s orbit said Musk’s carelessness with his communications and lack of respect for agency heads is at issue. “Musk is taking water unnecessarily. He underestimates Patel’s political power, less Rubio, Gabbard, and carelessly lacks a sustained, proactive communications effort that articulates not just the macro ‘CUT’ message but one that also manages the day-to-day drip of Washington process media,” the source said, referring to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. Federal employees received a three-sentence email Saturday from OPM, directing them to respond with five bullet points about what they accomplished over the past week by 11:59 p.m. EST Monday. In a separate post on X, Musk, who is leading the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) push to cut trillions of dollars in government spending, warned that failure to respond would “be taken as a resignation.” However, OPM clarified in new guidance Monday afternoon to human resources officers at every agency that response to the email is voluntary, undercutting Musk’s threats.President Trump on Monday, in his first comments about the email after he was notably silent amid the pushback, defended Musk. “There was a lot of genius in sending it. We’re trying to find out if people are working and so we’re sending a letter to people, ‘Please tell us what you did last week.’ If people don’t respond, it’s very possible that there is no such person or they’re not working,” Trump said. But Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) laid into the effort as “callous.” “[Office of Management and Budget Director Russel Vought] wanted to traumatize the workforce. I think he’s doing a pretty good job on that,” Warner said. “… This is callous, careless, irresponsible. It’s going to chase away our best federal workers, and that’s going to end up costing money.” An administration official told The Hill that everything Musk puts out, like the weekend email, is in coordination with Trump, White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and other senior advisers, and that Musk’s requests should be seen as directly from the president because OPM is a component of the White House. The order in the email “really instructs each agency and department to come up with a system that works well for them,” the official said, adding that there is not a “one-size-fits-all approach” to cuts to the federal government. Some agencies, like the FBI and State Department, have rules about sensitive information regarding national security that can’t be transmitted over email, the official said, attributing some department responses to those rules. Patel has his own plans for carrying out FBI workforce reductions and, in a message to staff Saturday, said that “when and if further information is required, we will coordinate the responses. For now, please pause any responses.” The FBI is facing litigation brought by its own agents after the Justice Department demanded a detailed breakdown of the role and actions taken by some 5,000 agents who worked on Jan. 6, 2021, cases. Litigants — after much back and forth — were able to secure a promise from the department to not release the names of agents who cited fears of retaliation.There has also been a purge of top FBI leadership, as well as the firing of prosecutors who have worked on Trump’s two criminal cases. And, Patel has been accused of directing firings at the FBI well before his confirmation as the agency’s director.. Like Patel, Gabbard advised intelligence community staff not to respond to the email. The State Department will respond to the request on behalf of its employees, a spokesperson told The Hill. The Department of Homeland Security leadership sent an email to its more than 250,000 employees likewise directing them not to respond to the email, as well as the Department of Justice and the Pentagon. Other Trump officials supported Musk and his request, such as Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy, who shared Monday his own five accomplishments from last week in a post on X. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), which told employees to halt all work earlier this month amid what is widely seen as a push to effectively dismantle the agency, similarly directed employees to respond to the email. “CFPB leadership understands that certain work tasks have stopped,” said Adam Martinez, the agency’s chief operating officer. “If you were not able to perform tasks/work as a result, you may reply and simply reference that you were complying with the current work stoppage.” The response from department heads toward Musk depends on the official and their relationship with Trump, argued Stewart Verdery, who served in former President George W. Bush’s administration. “In a more normal administration, any major decision around the federal workforce would go through layers and layers of decision-making, so everybody’s views get considered before an announcement,” he said. “That’s clearly the opposite of the current approach, so you’re going to see examples where agency heads are blindsided by a tweet or a DOGE statement — each Cabinet secretary is going to have to weigh how much leeway they have with the president versus saluting and taking orders,” he added. The email, much like other DOGE efforts, quickly drew a legal challenge. The American Federation of Government Employees and several other unions expanded a previous lawsuit against the Trump administration Monday to challenge Musk’s threat to fire workers who fail to respond to the OPM email. Trump appears to have given Musk wide latitude to target “waste, fraud and abuse” across the federal government, even as the tech billionaire’s exact connection to the DOGE team he leads remains unclear. The administration said in a court filing last week that Musk is not a DOGE employee or DOGE administrator. Instead, it asserted the Tesla CEO is a senior adviser to the president and an employee of the “White House Office.” Even so, Musk seems to be leading the charge. Both Saturday’s email and an earlier email offering federal employees deferred resignation were remarkably similar to steps Musk took at X after acquiring it in 2022. The clash illustrates the limitations of Musk’s push to approach government like a business, said Republican strategist Chris Johnson. He emphasized that many of Trump’s appointees are largely aligned with Musk but simply oppose his top-down strategy. “This is just ultimately the culmination of what we assumed, I think a lot of people assumed, would be the issue with Elon running large swaths of government entities,” Johnson told The Hill. “Government is not a business, and so the way that businesses are run, where you can do these big, sweeping actions from the top, was always going to run into the reality of how governments are actually run,” he added. As DOGE continues its slash-and-burn approach to the federal government, it is increasingly facing public pushback. Only 42 percent of voters said they support the work of DOGE to cut federal spending, while 53 percent of voters said they oppose it, a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday found. Among Republicans, 82 percent said they support it, while only 9 percent of Democrats do.However, Trump on Monday pointed reporters to another poll, arguing Musk’s work is “massively popular.” That Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll found 72 percent of registered voters support having an agency focused on ensuring government efficiency, but the same poll found voters were split on the Musk-led department having access to their own personal data and the country’s
Musk says failure to respond a second time to email will end in termination --Tech billionaire Elon Musk said federal employees will get a second chance to respond to an email asking for a recap of their last week’s accomplishments — or else face termination.“Subject to the discretion of the President, they will be given another chance,” Musk wrote on X on Monday, referring to federal employees who did not respond to an initial email asking them to list 5 things they accomplished in the week prior by 11:59 p.m. Monday or face removal.“Failure to respond a second time will result in termination,” Musk added, in his latest post.The message appears to contradict recent guidance from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM), which told agency leaders Monday afternoon that employee response to the initial email was not mandatory and that failure to do so would not be considered a resignation.“This afternoon, OPM during a Chief Human Capital Officers Council meeting, informed agencies that employee responses to the OPM email is voluntarily,” according to an email obtained by The Hill.“OPM also clarified that a non-response to the email does not equate to a resignation,” the email read.That OPM guidance initially came amid a turf war between agency leaders and Musk and amid confusion surrounding the email, sent at Musk’s direction, to federal employees on Saturday afternoon. That email demanded a response by the end of the day on Monday and said failure to respond would be understood as resignation.Several departments and agencies, however, quickly followed up and instructed employees not to respond to the email.
DOGE boss Musk doubles down on federal worker threat: Submit what you did list or get fired --DOGE chief Elon Musk doubled down Monday night on his threat to fire federal employees who fail to submit a list of five or so of their workplace accomplishments over the past week."Subject to the discretion of the President, they will be given another chance," Musk said about those workers in a post on hissocial media site X."Failure to respond a second time will result in termination," wrote Musk, whom President Donald Trump has tasked with slashing federal government spending and employee headcount.The Tesla CEO's renewed warning came hours after the Office of Personnel Management contradicted his initial threat.OPM told top human resources officers at departments across the government "that employee responses to the OPM email" demanding the accomplishment tally "is voluntary."But OPM on Saturday sent out a blast email across the government, telling workers to submit that list by Monday night. That email did not say that employees — who do not work for OPM — had the option of not complying.Musk on Saturday tweeted about OPM's email of that same day, writing: "Failure to respond will be taken as a resignation."In an X post on Monday, Musk wrote, "The email request was utterly trivial, as the standard for passing the test was to type some words and press send!""Yet so many failed even that inane test, urged on in some cases by their managers," wrote Musk, whose worker- and cost-cutting effort is known as the Department of Government Efficiency."Have you ever witnessed such INCOMPETENCE and CONTEMPT for how YOUR TAXES are being spent?"Trump on Monday told reporters that he thought the OPM email on Saturday, and the idea that workers who failed to respond to it would be terminated, was "great.""Because we have people that don't show up to work, and nobody even knows if they work for the government," Trump said."What he's doing is saying, 'Are you actually working?' And then if youdon't answer, you're sort of semi-fired or you're fired, because a lot of people are not answering, because they don't even exist," the president said.
White House identifies DOGE administrator amid questions on Elon Musk's role --The acting administrator of President Donald Trump's so-called Department of Government Efficiency is Amy Gleason, a White House official told CNBC on Tuesday. The DOGE leader's name was revealed shortly after White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt assured reporters that Elon Musk was overseeing the government-slashing unit. Speaking at a White House press briefing, Leavitt declined repeated requests to name the DOGE administrator, whose identity had been a question mark for weeks. Gleason was identified after the briefing by an official who requested anonymity to share the information. Leavitt's refusals added to the confusion about who is running DOGE, even as Musk appears to be in charge. Trump created DOGE on his first day in office via executive order that retooled the U.S. Digital Service, an existing team within the Executive Office of the President. The newly formed "United States DOGE Service" established an administrator who reports directly to the White House chief of staff. The DOGE administrator is also in charge of an internal group called "the U.S. DOGE Service Temporary Organization," according to the executive order. Trump's action also directed federal agency heads to coordinate with the DOGE administrator, including on the establishment of internal "DOGE Teams" within their agencies. It is unclear when the administrator role was filled. Semafor reported Feb. 18 that the position "remains vacant" since Mina Hsiang, who was administrator of the unit when it was still known as the U.S. Digital Service, stepped down as Trump took office. A Feb. 18 Wired article described Gleason as a former U.S. Digital Service official who served during Trump's first term. A LinkedIn profile that appears to match Gleason shows she worked as a "Digital Services Expert" at the USDS from October 2018 to December 2021. She rejoined the unit in January as a "Senior Advisor," according to the profile.CNBC's outreach to that profile was not immediately returned.A page from former President Barack Obama's archived White House website praises Gleason as part of its "Champions of Change" initiative.Questions surrounding Musk's role are at the center of multiple lawsuits challenging DOGE's actions, which have included waves of sudden firings, the scrapping of government contracts and the attempted shuttering of entire federal agencies.In one of the lawsuits, a Trump administration aide wrote in a declaration Feb. 17 that Musk is a senior advisor to Trump, with "no actual or formal authority to make government decisions himself."The aide, Office of Administration Director Joshua Fisher, wrote under penalty of perjury that Musk is "not an employee" of the DOGE entities that Trump established.During a hearing Monday in a separate federal lawsuit, a Trump administration lawyer was reportedly unable to answer a judge's questions about Musk's relationship to DOGE.
Federal agencies plan second email on weekly accomplishments - Some agencies plan to send a second Saturday email to federal workers asking them for bullet points on what they did this week, a sign at least some departments plan to continue with the controversial practice ignited by Elon Musk.The decision comes after Musk faced pushback last week from some agency heads, who instructed their employees not to respond to a Saturday email from hr@opm.gov, undercutting Musk’s threats that any nonresponse would be considered a resignation.The move acknowledges that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) itself has little authority over other agencies, which have their own human resources departments and, of course, agency heads who dictate internal policy.But while several department leaders, like new FBI Director Kash Patel, told their employees not to respond, others informed employees they should go ahead and do so, demonstrating an appetite among other agencies to have their employees send bullet points recapping what they accomplished in the week that just ended.The Washington Post first reported the plans to have each agency send a follow-up email. Musk, at the first meeting of President Trump’s Cabinet on Wednesday, defended his email demanding all federal workers report their accomplishments to his office, calling it a “pulse check” and saying anyone with a heartbeat and neurons could complete it.
Marjorie Taylor Greene says federal workers 'don't deserve' their paychecks Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said federal workers “don’t deserve” their paychecks during a House Oversight and Government Reform Committee hearing Tuesday. Those are not real jobs producing federal revenue, by the way. They’re consuming taxpayer dollars. Those jobs are paid for by the American tax people, who work real jobs, earn real income, pay federal taxes and then pay these federal employees,” Greene said during the hearing.“Federal employees do not deserve their jobs. Federal employees do not deserve their paychecks. And these are jobs that can be fired at will.” Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) criticized Greene for casting aside the careers of her own constituents, noting the number of federal workers in Greene’s district. “Marjorie Taylor Greene believes 6,008 of her constituents are unworthy of a job or a paycheck because they work for the federal government,” Escobar wrote Tuesday in a post on the social platform X. “To quote her favorite person: SAD!”Greene was responding to comments from Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) urging the“These reports are beyond troubling, and I respectfully request that you have a hearing again on the USPS,” he told the committee. “No private-sector entity provides universal service across the nation, and without these letter carriers and others, more than 51.5 million households and businesses especially in rural communities would have no guaranteed delivery.”
USAID employees given 15 minutes to clear out offices - U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) employees were notified late Tuesday they would be given 15 minutes to collect their belongings from their offices as the Trump administration forges ahead with gutting the agency. “All staff and their property will undergo magnetometer and x-ray machine screening upon entry. Staff will then be escorted to their workspace, where they will be permitted to collect their personal items and given approx 15 minutes to complete this retrieval and must be finished removing items within their time slot only,” the message says. “Staff MUST bring their own boxes, bags, tape, and/or other containers to remove their personal items; these items will not be provided.” The message was sent to employees by text, as many employees have had their email disabled, and it is currently the only content posted on the USAID website. The majority of USAID staff have been placed on administrative leave and blocked from accessing their offices or other USAID systems. The Trump administration on Sunday told USAID staffers it would be firing 1,600 employees and placing all but a fraction of employees on administrative leave — a group of roughly 4,200 people.
Social Security notifies employees of ‘significant workforce reductions’ --The Social Security Administration (SSA) is notifying employees of “significant workforce reductions” on the way as it prepares for what it describes as an “agency-wide organizational restructuring” amid reports that thousands of workers could be let go. The agency said this week that offices that perform functions that aren’t “mandated by statute may be prioritized for reduction-in-force actions that could include abolishment of organizations and positions, directed reassignments, and reductions in staffing.” “The agency may reassign employees from non-mission critical positions to mission critical direct service positions (e.g., field offices, teleservice centers, processing centers),” the SSA said. “Reassignments may be involuntary and may require retraining for new workloads.” A source also told NewsNation that the agency is planning to remove more than 100 employees focused on civil rights and equal opportunity. In notices to the employees, acting Commissioner Leland Dudek told staffers they would be placed on administrative leave as a “notice of proposed removal.” “This notice is a proposal and not a decision. You will be notified of my decision in writing,” the notice read. “From the date that you receive this notice of proposed removal to the date of the decision is a notice period. You will be placed on administrative leave effective immediately until a final decision is made and implemented. My decision letter will provide you with the effective date of your removal.” “You have the right to respond to this notice of proposed suspension orally, in writing, or both. You must make your response within twenty-five (25) days of the date that you receive this notice,” the notice continued.
Trump says Zeldin plans to cut up to 65 percent of EPA staff -- President Trump said Wednesday that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin has floated cutting the agency’s workforce by up to 65 percent.Speaking at the inaugural Cabinet meeting of his second term, Trump said Zeldin “thinks he’s going to be cutting 65 or so percent of the people from environmental. And we’re going to speed up the process, too, at the same time.”Zeldin, a former New York congressman, was present at the meeting Wednesday.The EPA has a permanent staff of 17,202 as well as 1,540 temporary workers, according to the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.Trump’s comments come amid wide-reaching job cuts across federal agencies, with more reportedly coming including at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The cuts have largely targeted probationary employees, which applies to both recent hires and those who have recently received promotions, and many agencies have scrambled to rehire some personnel.On Feb. 11, the president signed an executive order directing widespread federal layoffs, prompting a lawsuit by six unions representing government workers. On Wednesday, the Office of Personnel Management issued more specific guidance directing federal agencies to turn over layoff plans by March 13.The job cuts would be the latest of several sweeping changes the EPA chief has made at the agency since assuming leadership, many of them aimed at reversing Biden-era efforts to mitigate climate change and promote renewable energy.
Hundreds of firings at key US climate agency: lawmaker --Hundreds of scientists and experts have been fired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a leading US agency responsible for weather forecasting, climate analysis, marine conservation and more, a Democratic lawmaker said Thursday. The cuts come as Elon Musk's so-called Department of Government Efficiency enacts sweeping reductions to the federal workforce—moves that critics argue may exceed legal authority. NOAA has been a prime target for conservative ideologues behind Project 2025, a blueprint for governing that President Donald Trump's new administration appears to be following. The plan, developed by the Heritage Foundation, describes NOAA as one of the "main drivers of the climate change alarm industry" and calls for dismantling the agency. It also seeks to privatize the National Weather Service, leaving weather forecasting in the hands of companies like AccuWeather. "Hundreds of scientists and experts at NOAA just received the news every federal worker has been dreading," Congressman Jared Huffman of California wrote in a statement. "Musk's sham mission is bringing vital programs to a screeching halt. People nationwide depend on NOAA for free, accurate forecasts, severe weather alerts, and emergency information," added Huffman, who is the second most powerful member of the House Natural Resources Committee. "Purging the government of scientists, experts, and career civil servants and slashing fundamental programs will cost lives." A NOAA spokesman said the agency would not comment on internal personnel matters. "We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission," Theo Stein, the spokesman, told AFP. Environmental advocates expressed concern at the move. "Trump's mass firings at NOAA are an act of sabotage aimed at one of our most important federal agencies," said Miyoko Sakashita, the Center for Biological Diversity's oceans director. She added that gutting the agency "will hamstring essential lifesaving programs that forecast storms, ensure ocean safety, and prevent the extinction of whales and sea otters." Trump has reappointed meteorologist Neil Jacobs to lead NOAA, despite his role in the "Sharpiegate" scandal during Trump's first term. Jacobs, who led the agency from 2018 to 2021, was officially censured for bowing to political pressure and misleading the public about a hurricane forecast. The controversy erupted in 2019 when Trump falsely claimed Hurricane Dorian would hit Alabama. After the National Weather Service corrected him, Trump doubled down, displaying a doctored forecast map altered with a Sharpie. NOAA later issued an unsigned statement backing Trump, sparking backlash. Official investigations castigated Jacobs for his involvement in the statement.
Elon Musk dominates, disparages federal workers at first Trump Cabinet meeting - Elon Musk at the first meeting of President Trump’s Cabinet defended his email demanding all federal workers report their accomplishments to his office, calling it a “pulse check” and saying anyone with a heartbeat and neurons could complete it. Musk said he asked all federal employees to send emails listing their accomplishments in order t make people who are collecting paychecks prove they are actually working. Musk has argued his efforts are rooted in eliminating waste and fraud in the government. He said the email was not a personnel review “but a pulse review” and that anyone who was not dead could answer it. “There are fictional individuals collecting paychecks,” Musk said of the government, though he did not offer specific evidence that people are fraudulently getting paychecks. “Are they alive, and can they write an email?” Musk, the world’s richest person, was dominant at the opening of the Cabinet meeting, offering a number of sharp comments toward the federal workforce while standing and taking questions from the press. Musk, who is not a member of Trump’s formal Cabinet, did so as Trump’s Cabinet secretaries sat at the table in the White House’s Cabinet Room. It was impossible to tell how much some of the Cabinet members agreed or disagreed with Musk’s comments through their facial expressions and body language, though any public disagreements with Trump would be unexpected. “Is anyone unhappy with Elon? If you are, we’ll throw them out of here,” Trump asked the room at one point, eliciting some chuckles. Trump also defended Musk’s email, which several officials, including FBI Director Kash Patel and Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, told their staff not to answer. The Office of Personnel Management (OPM), essentially the human resources office of the federal government, said Monday that responses to Musk’s demand for five bullet points outlining workers’ weekly accomplishments were voluntary. “I can tell you everything I’ve done for the last — long period of time,” Trump said. “We have a mandate to do this. And this part of the reason I got elected.” “Those millions of people who haven’t responded, they’re on the bubble,” the president added. “I wouldn’t say they wouldn’t exist.” It is definitely clear Trump and Musk want to drastically cut the federal workforce.
Musk grabs spotlight: takeaways from Trump’s first Cabinet meeting - President Trump hosted the first Cabinet meeting of his second term Wednesday, gathering top officials in one place and fielding questions for roughly an hour. Trump addressed his administration’s efforts to drastically slash the size of the federal workforce, the conflict in Ukraine and tariffs, among other topics. He was joined by Cabinet officials and Elon Musk, who has amassed significant power as he leads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Musk, the CEO of Tesla and owner of the social platform X, is not technically part of the president’s Cabinet, but his influence was on full display as he joined Wednesday’s meeting.Trump recognized Musk to speak first. Musk referred to himself as “humble tech support,” but his comments reflected his wide-reaching role.“The overall goal here with the DOGE team is to help address the enormous deficit. We simply cannot sustain as a country $2 trillion deficits,” Musk said, outlining how his team is seeking to update government computer systems while also dramatically reducing the federal deficit.Musk’s presence created a somewhat awkward dynamic, as his presence overshadowed the Senate-confirmed agency leaders who were in the room and have been tasked with carrying out Trump’s agenda.The Cabinet meeting took place shortly after the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed agencies across government to turn over plans for widespread layoffs of federal employees by March 13.Trump and Musk both made clear that cutting back the size of the federal workforce was top of mind. “We wish to keep everyone who is doing a job that is essential and doing a job well,” Musk said. “But if the job is not essential or they’re not doing the job well, they obviously should not be on the public payroll.” Musk sparked confusion in recent days when he posted on X that federal workers should send their bosses a list of 5 accomplishments from the past week or face termination. The White House has said workers should heed the instructions of their agency leaders on whether to respond, and the OPM said responses were voluntary.But Trump and Musk defended the initiative during Wednesday’s meeting. Musk described it as a “pulse check,” while he and Trump claimed some workers who don’t respond may not even exist.“Some of the secretaries, we’re going to be going to them, we’re going to be talking about it today — we’re going to ask them to do their own DOGE,” Trump said, signaling individual Cabinet agencies would be asked to slash spending and workers.Trump said Lee Zeldin, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency, “thinks he’ll be cutting 65 percent or so of the people” there. Trump confirmed that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit the White House on Friday as the two leaders look to finalize a deal that would see the U.S. invest in Ukraine’s critical minerals supply.The meeting will take place with the backdrop of Trump’s increasingly critical comments about Zelensky and his push to end the war in Ukraine. Trump demurred Wednesday when asked about security guarantees for Ukraine.Trump went on to suggest the critical minerals deal amounted to “automatic security,” because “nobody’s going to be messing around with our people.” Trump also swiped at Canada, claiming the country is almost entirely dependent on the U.S. economically.“Without us, Canada can’t make it,” Trump said. “I say Canada should be our 51st state.”The president’s administration is preparing to slap tariffs on Canada, the European Union and other nations and specific goods. Wednesday’s meeting offered an opportunity for the White House press corps to ask questions of other Cabinet secretaries, or for Trump to press certain issues with agency leaders.Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the head of the Department of Health and Human Services, was asked about a measles outbreak in Texas, a particularly sensitive issue given Kennedy’s rhetoric about vaccines.“There are two people who have died, but we’re watching it … and we’re going to continue to follow it,” Kennedy told reporters. Trump said “every single one” of the generals involved in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan should be fired. “I’m not going to tell this man what to do, but I will say that if I had his place, I’d fire every single one of them,” Trump said, gesturing to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, seated beside him.Hegseth replied that the Pentagon is “doing a complete review of every single aspect of what happened” with the deadly and chaotic August 2021 withdrawal and plans “to have full accountability.”And Trump deferred to Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to discuss the rising prices of eggs and how the administration is seeking to address the issue.
Donald Trump depicted kissing Elon Musk's feet in AI video played on HUD TVs - A video produced using artificial intelligence (AI) showing President Trump rubbing and kissing Elon Musk’s feet played on television screens in the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) building Monday in an apparent mocking of the relationship between the two men. The words “Long live the real king” were displayed over the top of the computer-generated video, a reference to Trump’s Truth Social post last week in which he wrote, “Long Live the King!” The Hill obtained a photo of the screens in the HUD building as the video was playing. “Another waste of taxpayer dollars and resources. Appropriate action will be taken for all involved,” HUD spokesperson Kasey Lovett said in a statement to The Hill. Musk, the Tesla CEO and owner of the social platform X, has become one of Trump’s strongest allies and has amassed a tremendous amount of power over federal agencies, including the firing of thousands of government employees. He was tapped to run the Department of Government Efficiency, an agency advising the administration on cuts to spending and staffing. Musk stirred controversy and widespread confusion over the weekend when he posted on X that government employees should respond to a mass email listing five things they accomplished in the past week, saying a failure to reply would be considered a resignation. Multiple agencies told their employees not to respond.The relationship between Trump and Musk has become a point of contention as Musk’s power has grown, however, with Democrats and critics seeking to get under Trump’s skin by suggesting Musk is the one running the show. The two men in a joint interview earlier this month argued there was a concerted effort by the media to drive them apart.
White House sets deadline for agency-downsizing plans --The Trump administration has given most government agencies a little more than two weeks to come up with plans for "significant" headcount reductions. Federal agencies have a little more than two weeks to devise plans for achieving significant staff reductions and cost savings.
OPM instructs agencies to turn over plans for mass government layoffs by March 13 -- A Wednesday memo from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directs agencies across government to turn over plans for widespread layoffs of federal employees by March 13.The memo, which provides more specific guidance after a Feb. 11 executive order from President Trump mandating layoffs, requires agencies to break down their plans for a reduction in force and broader restructuring of their agencies.It also indicates the White House is eager to speed the shedding of federal workers, noting OPM can cut in half the 60-day notification period for employees being laid off, meaning swift-moving agencies could begin notifying affected employees as soon as April.“Pursuant to the President’s direction, agencies should focus on the maximum elimination of functions that are not statutorily mandated while driving the highest-quality, most efficient delivery of their statutorily-required functions,” OPM and OMB wrote in the memo.The memo directs agencies to “collaborate with their Department of Government Efficiency (“DOGE”) team leads within the agency.”Among the suggested methods for cutting employees is looking at “positions not typically designated as essential during a lapse in appropriations.”The memo also suggests agencies “close and/or consolidate regional field offices to the extent consistent with efficient service delivery; and maximally reduce the use of outside consultants and contractors.”
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. bars public comment in rulemaking process at DHS --Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Friday released a policy prohibiting public comments during his department’s rulemaking process, ending more than 50 years of the public’s involvement in crafting his department’s rules. In the policy statement placed in the Federal Register, Kennedy’s office appeared to argue that rescinding the policy goes back to the original intent of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA). Although the APA exempts the requirement for public comment on matters “relating to agency management or personnel or to public property, loans, grants, benefits, or contracts,” there has been a waiver, referred to as the Richardson waiver, on this exemption since 1971, allowing for interested parties to take part in the rulemaking process. “The policy waiving the statutory exemption for rules relating to public property, loans, grants, benefits, or contracts is contrary to the clear text of the APA and imposes on the Department obligations beyond the maximum procedural requirements specified in the APA,” according to the policy statement from Kennedy’s office. “Effective immediately, the Richardson Waiver is rescinded and is no longer the policy of the Department,” it added. The move comes shortly after the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) postponed a key meeting held by the vaccine committee for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, saying at the time that it was delayed to “accommodate public comment in advance of the meeting.” After assuming office, Kennedy had vowed to usher in “radical transparency” at the HHS..
Trump administration, DOGE hit roadblocks in three court cases -- A trio of federal judges on Tuesday dealt the Trump administration setbacks in separate court cases involving federal spending, refugees and foreign aid. In one case, a judge extended a block on the Trump administration freezing federal spending on grants, loans and other financial aid.. "In the simplest terms, the freeze was ill-conceived from the beginning," wrote Judge Loren AliKhan in an opinion issued in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C. "Defendants either wanted to pause up to $3 trillion in federal spending practically overnight, or they expected each federal agency to review every single one of its grants, loans, and funds for compliance in less than twenty-four hours," AliKhan wrote. "The breadth of that command is almost unfathomable." The funding freeze was part of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency effort by the administration to cut federal spending. Billionaire Elon Musk is overseeing that initiative. In another case, a judge in Washington state federal court blocked an executive order by President Donald Trump that had paused the nation's Refugee Admissions Program. "The president has substantial discretion to suspend refugee admissions. But that authority is not limitless," said Judge Jamal Whitehead in his decision. "He can not ignore Congress' detailed framework for refugee admissions and the limits it places on the president's ability to suspend the same," Whitehead said. In the third case, in D.C. federal court, Judge Amir Ali for a third time ordered the Trump administration to release foreign aid funds. Ali's order came at the end of a hearing where an attorney for aid groups told him that the money the judge previously had said should be disbursed to the group remained frozen.
Republican files article of impeachment against judge who ordered agencies to restore scrubbed data -Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) on Monday introduced an impeachment resolution against a federal judge who ordered federal health agencies to temporarily restore online datasets scrubbed as part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on “gender ideology.” The article of impeachment says U.S. District Judge John Bates’s conduct in the case was “so utterly lacking in intellectual honesty and basic integrity that he is guilty of high crimes and misdemeanors.” Earlier this month, Bates agreed with a left-leaning physicians group that federal health agencies likely violated federal law when they took down various data to align with President Trump’s executive order recognizing only two sexes.“At no point in American history has the judiciary considered the surgical or chemical castration of healthy children to be a compelling or even legitimate health concern and it shouldn’t start now. We must protect our children from predators like Judge Bates,” Ogles wrote on the social platform X. Bates sits on Washington, D.C.’s federal trial court and was appointed to the bench by the younger former President Bush in 2001. Bates declined to comment through a court spokesperson. Impeaching federal judges has become an exceedingly rare occurrence. A majority of the House would need to vote to impeach Bates, and to remove him from office, two-thirds of the Senate would have to vote to convict. Ogles’s new resolution comes after another Republican congressman, Rep. Eli Crane (Ariz.), introduced articles of impeachment against a New York-based federal judge who temporarily blocked Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency from gaining access to critical Treasury Department payment system.
Rep. Jim Jordan: Obama IRS Targeted Conservatives, Biden IRS Leaked Taxpayer Data --A new disclosure by the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to the House Judiciary Committee reveals that, under the Biden administration, the IRS leaked the taxpayer information of more than 405,000 Americans–including President Trump.Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH), who chairs the House Judiciary Committee, began an inquiry into the leaks last year and with this latest disclosure has found that the scope of the leak was much larger than the Biden administration initially led the public to believe.The scandal began in late 2019 when an IRS contract worker named Charles (Chaz) Littlejohn, illegally accessed and stole tax returns and return information for President Trump and other wealthy Americans and then leaked that information to news outlets.Littlejohn pled guilty to the unauthorized disclosure in Oct 2023 and was sentenced to 5 years in prison.In April 2024, the IRS issued letters of notification to victims whose data had been leaked but the notifications prompted deeper questions into how many people’s data may have actually been disclosed.One month later, an IRS spokesman stated that “more than 70,000” taxpayers had been affected by the leak.In Dec 2024, a second round of notifications was issued to individuals and entities that were not part of the initial 70,000 recipients of the first notice.Rep. Jordan sent the IRS a letter on Jan 30, 2025 requesting more detailed information about the leaks and the IRS’s response letter sent on Feb 14 revised the number of people affected to 405,427 with approximately 89% of those taxpayers being business entities.The leak of taxpayer data under the Biden administration follows the controversy of the Obama administration being accused of abuse for using the IRS to target conservative individuals and organizations.Take note that the same coalitions protesting the prospect of DOGE engineers having access to IRS records and other financial data are conspicuously quiet about the actual abuses that took place under presidents Obama and Biden.
'This is insane': Democratic senator Chris Murphy rips DOJ official calling prosecutors 'Trump's lawyers' - Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) strongly criticized the interim attorney for D.C., Ed Martin, for describing prosecutors as “President Trump’s lawyers,” calling his statement “insane.” In a social media post from the official account of the U.S. Attorney for D.C. released Monday, Martin, who was nominated to the post by Trump last week, said, “As President Trump’s lawyers, we are proud to fight to protect his leadership as our president and we are vigilant in standing against entities like the A.P. that refuse to put America first.” Reacting to the post, Murphy said, “The U.S. Attorney for DC is not ‘President Trump’s lawyer’ and its job is not to ‘protect his leadership’ nor prosecute people who ‘refuse to put America first.'” According to the Constitution, the duties of each U.S. attorney’s office include prosecuting federal crimes, representing the U.S. in civil actions and collecting debts owed to the federal government which are administratively uncollectible. Martin, who defended Jan. 6 rioters and tech billionaire Elon Musk’s actions under the Department of Government Efficiency, was nominated by Trump to serve as the permanent U.S. attorney for D.C. last week. He has been serving in this role on an interim basis since shortly after Trump was sworn into office. “Since Inauguration Day, Ed has been doing a great job as Interim U.S. Attorney, fighting tirelessly to restore Law and Order, and make our Nation’s Capital Safe and Beautiful Again. He will get the job done,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform last week. Last Thursday, the federal prosecutor sent letters to Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), accusing the two of threatening public officials.
U.S. judge allows Trump's AP Oval Office ban to stand over use of Gulf of Mexico name - A federal judge on Monday denied a request by the Associated Press to restore full access for the news agency's journalists after President Donald Trump's administration barred them for continuing to refer to the Gulf of Mexico in coverage. U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee, declined to immediately grant the AP's request for a temporary injunction restoring its access to the Oval Office and Air Force One during a hearing in Washington federal court. The AP sued three senior Trump aides on Friday, arguing that the decision to block its reporters from those locations violates the U.S. Constitution's First Amendment protections against government abridgment of speech by trying to dictate the language they use in reporting the news. Lawyers for the Trump administration argued in a court filing before the hearing that the AP does not have a constitutional right to what it called "special media access to the president." White House Communications Director Steven Cheung in a earlier statement had called the AP lawsuit a "blatant PR stunt." During an appearance last week at the Conservative Political Action Conference, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also said, "We feel we are in the right in this position." Leavitt is one of the three White House officials named as defendants in the lawsuit. The other two, Chief of Staff Susan Wiles and Deputy Chief of Staff Taylor Budowich, have not responded to requests for comment. Trump signed an executive order last month directing the U.S. Interior Department to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. The AP said in January it would continue to use the gulf's long-established name in stories while also acknowledging Trump's efforts to change it. The White House banned AP reporters in response. The ban prevents the AP's journalists from seeing and hearing Trump and other top White House officials as they take newsworthy actions or respond in real time to news events. The White House Correspondents' Association said in a legal brief backing the AP in the case that the ban "will chill and distort news coverage of the president to the public's detriment." Reuters released a statement in support of the AP.
Dan Bongino, Trump’s pick for No. 2 at FBI, previously ripped GOP senators - Dan Bongino, the radio and podcast host tapped by President Trump to serve as deputy FBI director, has ripped Republican Sens. Bill Cassidy (La.) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) in the past, attacks that will draw more attention to his controversial nomination. Speaking on his program, “The Dan Bongino Show,” in 2021, Bongino slammed Cassidy as “a dreadful RINO [Republican in name only] senator” during a conversation with radio personality Moon Griffon about the bipartisan push for a $1 trillion infrastructure bill, one of former President Biden’s biggest accomplishments.Bongino bashed Murkowski last month after she voted against Pete Hegseth, Trump’s nominee to head the Department of Defense, calling her a “disgrace to humankind” and “a total fraud” on the social platform X.He argued her Alaska seat “is the one seat where we’re almost better off with a Democrat.” Trump announced his nomination of Bongino on his Truth Social platform Sunday evening, touting him as “a man of incredible love and passion for our Country.” The president noted Bongino’s master’s degree in psychology from the City University of New York, his Master’s of Business Administration from Penn State University and his past work as a member of the New York Police Department and U.S. Secret Service. News of the nomination elicited immediate skepticism from Democrats, such as Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.). “Trump has chosen grifters to lead the FBI,” Murphy posted on X. “Kash Patel sells ‘K$SH’ branded merch, vaccine reversal pills. Dan Bongino’s entire show is telling listeners the world is ending so they buy the dozens of survivalist products he sells,” Murphy wrote, referring to newly confirmed FBI Director Kash Patel. “I know this feels like a bad dream. It isn’t,” he added.
As McMahon hearing signals unprecedented attacks on public education, teacher union bureaucrats launch “email Congress” campaign --Public education is under existential attack, with the Department of Education (ED) already being dismantled by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and with the imminent installation of Trump acolyte and privatization advocate Linda McMahon as Secretary of Education. As of this date, more than 100 Department of Education employees have been let go, and approximately $900 million has been cut, severely impacting the department’s research arm, the Institute of Education Sciences (IES). Among the immediate studies being affected are those that track student learning from kindergarten through high school, research evaluating strategies for teaching elementary school reading, and evaluations on the effectiveness of support for youth with disabilities. Last week, the Education Department eliminated two major teacher training programs. The department terminated the Teacher Quality Partnerships program, which had an annual budget of $70 million, and the Supporting Effective Educator Development (SEED) grants, which were allocated $80 million per year. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump team has already drafted an executive order eliminating the Department of Education which they plan to release after McMahon is confirmed as secretary. “The Department of Education’s a big con job,” Trump told reporters on February 12, saying he would “like it to be closed immediately.” The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee (HELP) last week advanced the nomination of McMahon with a vote along party lines of 12-11. This is expected to be ratified by a full vote of the Senate in the coming days. At her February 13 hearing in front of the HELP committee, the billionaire wrestling industry executive denounced the Department of Education, saying it was responsible for “the vast majority of bureaucracy and red tape” in the nation’s educational system. She also endorsed the agency’s breakup and said, “The bottom line is, because it’s not working.” While acknowledging that only Congress can close the Department of Education, McMahon stated that federal oversight of public schools is unnecessary because it “is best handled at the state level, closest to the states, working with state administrators, teachers and parents, who should have input into their curriculum.” Throughout the hearing McMahon reiterated her staunch support for major expansion of school privatization efforts. Supporting the comments by Republican Senator Jon Husted from Ohio that “freedom and choice is good … for markets and business” and that schools should be treated the same, McMahon added that school choice is one of the cornerstones of the Trump administration’s policy on education. She cynically claimed that “school choice” makes schools “more competitive” and provides families with an opportunity to leave underfunded public schools. Some state budgets are already shifting funds from public schools to voucher and school choice programs after Trump’s recent executive order promoting the diversion of public funds to for-profit charters, private and parochial schools. In Ohio, $100 million is slated to be cut over two years while increasing funds for vouchers. Tennessee recently enacted a $447 million statewide school choice program. For their part, the Democrats have bent over to accommodate the attacks on public education. Bernie Sanders, the HELP committee’s ranking delegate for the minority party, said, “Is it [the Department of Education] a perfect entity? No. Is it bureaucratic? Yes. Can we reform it? Yes. Should we abolish it? No.” Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat from Virginia, likewise said he found areas of agreement with McMahon. However, he said he would not vote for someone “who will willfully engage in the destruction of the very agency she wants to lead.” The Democrats continue to seek common ground with McMahon, a figure who will lead the Trump administration’s unprecedented attacks on public education. At first claiming that McMahon was “elegantly gaslighting” the committee, Senator Maggie Hassan (D-New Hampshire) made certain to emphasize the bipartisan support for expanding Career and Technical Education (CTE) in schools, and her willingness to work with McMahon. At the hearing, McMahon reiterated the threat to deny federal funding to schools. After several senators asked what will happen to the funding for K-12 schools the Department of Education administers such as Title I and IDEA, McMahon claimed that funds approved by Congress would be distributed. She added, however, that “it is worthwhile to take a look at the programs before money goes out the door.” During questioning, she refused to answer whether teaching African American history would target a school district for a reduction or cut off of federal funding. Responding to a question about whether IDEA funds would be cut, McMahon said residents “should not be concerned that Federal funding is going away from their schools” and that only “ how they get that funding may change.” McMahon said IDEA funds would likely be distributed by the department of Health and Human Services (HHS). “I think that funding could very well go back to HHS where it started.” HHS is now headed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a notorious supporter of anti-science and anti-vaccine disinformation. Placing IDEA funds in the hands of HHS and RFK Jr. will have enormous negative impacts for students leaving students with disabilities vulnerable to inconsistent state-level support. McMahon also backed Trump’s fascistic attacks on democratic rights of students and teachers. Fascist Republican Senator Josh Hawley from Montana, railed against students who protested on campuses against the Israeli genocide, during his time for questioning. McMahon reassured Senator Hawley that she will absolutely enforce Title VI investigations on campuses, remove funds from these universities, and deport student protesters with visas. The Trump administration’s unprecedented assault on public education is exacerbating the already dire situation faced by schools across the United States. This attack follows decades of underfunding by both parties, which continued under the Biden administration. District officials cite declining enrollment and birth rates, as well as the ending of COVID-relief funding as pretexts for slashing jobs, vital programs, and closing schools.
CFPB nominee McKernan says he will uphold the law -- Jonathan McKernan, the nominee to lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, told the Senate Banking Committee Thursday that he would uphold the law and the bureau's statutory mandates. Under grilling from Senate Democrats, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director-designate Jonathan McKernan agreed to continue the statutory mandates of the bureau, but refused to comment on Elon Musk, stop-work orders, or litigation that has been dropped against financial firms.
Angry Democratic donors turn off the flow of money -- Democrats are anxious to rebuild their party on the heels of President Trump’s victory in November. But they have a major problem as they try to refashion their brand: The money isn’t there. Democratic donors — from bundlers to small dollar donors — say they are still angry about the election results and uninspired by anything their side has put forward since then. “I’ll be blunt here: The Democratic Party is f‑‑‑ing terrible. Plain and simple,” one major Democratic donor said. “In fact, it doesn’t get much worse.” A second donor was equally as pointed. “They want us to spend money, and for what? For no message, no organization, no forward thinking. … The thing that’s clear to a lot of us is that the party never really learned its lesson in 2016. They worked off the same playbook and the same ineffective strategies and to what end?” Much of the consternation among the donor community stems from the unprecedented 2024 election cycle, where many felt misled by the party and former President Biden’s reelection campaign. Until the Democratic debate in June, donors and fundraisers were led to believe Biden could once again defeat Trump, even as many had serious reservations about it. When Biden badly botched the debate, inflaming fears about his age, donors felt the campaign continued to hoodwink them, despite outwardly expressing their concerns to aides. And even when former Vice President Kamala Harris took the reins as the Democratic nominee, donors say, they poured gobs of money into what was ultimately a campaign that ran an outdated strategy. Then Harris lost. And morale among Democrats has been in the gutter ever since.
Trump Media sues Brazil Supreme Court justice who once crossed Musk - Trump Media and its fellow conservative-oriented social media company Rumble on Wednesday sued a Brazil Supreme Court justice whose clash last year with Elon Musk led to the blocking of Musk's own social media firm, X, in that country. The Tampa, Florida, federal court lawsuit accuses Justice Alexandre de Moraes of allegedly illegal attempts to censor a "well-known politically outspoken user" of Rumble with orders to suspend that user's U.S.-based accounts. The new lawsuit suit notes that Trump Media's social media siteTruth Social "relies on Rumble's cloud-based hosting and video streaming infrastructure to deliver multimedia content to its user base." "If Rumble were to be shut down, that shut down would necessarily interfere with Truth Social's operations, as well," the suit says."Rumble and [Trump Media] jointly seek a judgment declaring Justice Moraes's Gag Orders unenforceable in the United States," the suit says. "Allowing Justice Moraes to muzzle a vocal user on an American digital outlet would jeopardize our country's bedrock commitment to open and robust debate. Neither extraterritorial dictates nor judicial overreach from abroad can override the freedoms protected by the U.S. Constitution and law."The suit was filed a day after Brazil's prosecutor-general charged the country's former president, Jair Bolsonaro, with an attempted coup as he tried to remain in office following his 2022 election loss.Bolsonaro — who was invited to President Donald Trump's inauguration last month — is accused of participating in a plot with nearly three dozen other people, which allegedly planned to poison current Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and kill Moraes.Trump had owned the majority of Trump Media stock shares. In December, the then-president-elect transferred his entire stake of shares to a revocable trust of which he is the sole beneficiary.Vice President JD Vance's venture capital firm Narya Capitalwas among the biggest investors in Rumble in 2021, with a stake of between $100,000 and $250,000, disclosure filings showed.The lawsuit mentions Musk's feud with Moraes, when the justice suspended X in Brazil for Musk's defiance of requests to ban some user accounts and remove content that Moraes said violated the country's laws.Brazil's Supreme Court also suspended bank accounts in that country of X and Starlink, the satellite internet service provider owned by Musk's company SpaceX, as part of that battle.Musk, who is also the CEO of Tesla, has been tasked by Trump to oversee a wide-ranging effort to cut federal government suspending and employee headcount.Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes in a statement Wednesday on the suit said that the company "is firmly committed to upholding the right to free expression.""This is not just a slogan, it's the core mission of this company," Nunes said. "We're proud to join our partner Rumble in standing against unjust demands for political censorship regardless of who makes them."Trump Media last week reported a net loss of nearly $401 million for 2024, and revenue of just $3.6 million.The company in a statement last week said that about half of the $61 million in cash used in operating activities in 2024 "comprised legal expenses including costs related to the Company's March 2024 merger with a special purpose acquisition company." "Partly as a result of obstruction by the Biden-era Securities and Exchange Commission, which turned the process into one of the longest SPAC mergers in history, [Trump Media] incurred significant legal expenses related to its merger and has brought litigation seeking to recoup its damages," the suit said.
Trump’s AI safety cuts - Potential cuts to the U.S. AI Safety Institute (AISI) are causing alarm among some who fear the development of responsible artificial intelligence (AI) could be at risk as President Trump works to downsize the federal government. The looming layoffs at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) could reportedly impact up to 500 staffers in the AISI or Chips for America, amping up longtime suspicions the AISI could eventually see its doors shuttered under Trump’s leadership. Since taking office last month, Trump has sought to switch the White House tone on AI development, prioritizing innovation and maintaining U.S. leadership in the space. Some technology experts say the potential cuts undermine this goal and could impede America’s competitiveness in the space. “It feels almost like a Trojan horse,” said Jason Corso, a robotics, electrical engineering and computer science professor at the University of Michigan. “Like the exterior of the horse is beautiful, it’s big and this message that we want the United States to be the leaders in AI, but the actual actions, the [goal] within, is the dismantling of federal responsibility and federal funding to support that mission,” he continued.The AISI was created under the Commerce Department in 2023 in response to former President Biden’s executive order on AI. The order, which Trump rescinded on his first day in office, created new safety standards for AI among other things. The institute is responsible for developing the testing, evaluations and guidelines for what it calls “trustworthy” AI. AISI and Chips for America — both housed under NIST — could be “gutted” by layoffs aimed at probationary employees, Axios reported last week.Some of these employees received verbal notices about upcoming terminations last week, though a final decision on the scope of the cuts had not yet been made, Bloomberg reported, citing anonymous sources. The push comes as Trump’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) panel, led by tech billionaire Elon Musk, takes a sledgehammer to the federal government and calls for the layoffs of thousands of federal employees to cut down on spending.
SEC closes investigation into Robinhood Crypto with no action - The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has closed its investigation into the cryptocurrency arm of Robinhood without taking action against the online brokerage, the company announced Monday. Robinhood Crypto had received a notice from the SEC last May indicating that the agency was preparing to file an enforcement action. “We applaud the staff’s decision to close this investigation with no action,” Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal, compliance and corporate affairs officer, said in a statement. “Let me be crystal clear—this investigation never should have been opened,” continued Gallagher, a former SEC commissioner during the George W. Bush adminstration. “Robinhood Crypto always has and will always respect federal securities laws and never allowed transactions in securities.” Gallagher touted what he described as “a return to the rule of law and commitment to fairness at the SEC.” The agency has pulled back on its enforcement against crypto companies since President Trump took office last month and tapped Republican SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda to take over as acting chair. Up Next - Trump, Macron project unity despite clear Ukraine-Russia divide Crypto exchange Coinbase revealed Friday that the SEC agreed to dismiss its two-year-old case against the company. That same day, OpenSea CEO Devin Finzer said on X that the agency also closed its investigation into the NFT marketplace. The shift was widely expected given Trump’s embrace of the crypto industry. The president has tapped several crypto-friendly figures to take on key roles in his administration. His pro-crypto pick to chair the SEC, Paul Atkins, is still awaiting Senate confirmation.
SEC ends investigation into Robinhood's crypto arm - The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has closed its investigation into the cryptocurrency arm of Robinhood without taking action against the online brokerage, the company announced Monday. Robinhood Crypto had received a notice from the SEC last May indicating that the agency was preparing to file an enforcement action. “We applaud the staff’s decision to close this investigation with no action,” Dan Gallagher, Robinhood’s chief legal, compliance and corporate affairs officer, said in a statement. “Let me be crystal clear—this investigation never should have been opened,” continued Gallagher, a former SEC commissioner during the George W. Bush adminstration. “Robinhood Crypto always has and will always respect federal securities laws and never allowed transactions in securities.” Gallagher touted what he described as “a return to the rule of law and commitment to fairness at the SEC.” The agency has pulled back on its enforcement against crypto companies since President Trump took office last month and tapped Republican SEC Commissioner Mark Uyeda to take over as acting chair. Up Next - Trump, Macron project unity despite clear Ukraine-Russia divide-00:05Crypto exchange Coinbase revealed Friday that the SEC agreed to dismiss its two-year-old case against the company. That same day, OpenSea CEO Devin Finzer said on X that the agency also closed its investigation into the NFT marketplace. The shift was widely expected given Trump’s embrace of the crypto industry. The president has tapped several crypto-friendly figures to take on key roles in his administration. His pro-crypto pick to chair the SEC, Paul Atkins, is still awaiting Senate confirmation.
Nearly $1.5 billion in tokens lost in Bybit crypto exchange hack - Bybit, a cryptocurrency exchange, said it was hacked Friday, leading to an estimated $1.5 billion worth of tokens being stolen, amounting to what is estimated to be the largest crypto heist. The heist is among the largest ever experienced by the crypto industry and highlights concerns many have over the need for better regulation.
North Korean hackers behind $1.5 billion crypto hack: Security firm -North Korean hackers were behind a sophisticated hack that stole about $1.5 billion worth of digital currency from Bybit, a major cryptocurrency exchange, according to security firm TRM. “TRM has determined – with high confidence – that the Bybit hack was perpetrated by North Korean hackers,” a statement from the firm read Friday. “This assessment is based on substantial overlaps observed between addresses controlled by the Bybit hackers and those linked to prior North Korean thefts,” the statement continued. TRM said the firm was able to tag and track in real time the movement of the stolen $1.5 billion in Ethereum tokens. The Hill has reached out to the FBI for comment. North Korean state hackers have been linked to several high-dollar crypto thefts in recent years. In December, the FBI, the Defense Department, and the National Police Agency of Japan issued a joint statement blaming North Korean hackers for the theft of $308 million from a Japanese crypto firm. Bybit said on Friday a routine transfer of Ethereum digital wallets was “manipulated” by an attacker who transferred the crypto to an unidentified address. The company sought to reassure customers that their cryptocurrency holdings with the exchange were safe. The company added that news of the hack had led to a surge in withdrawal requests and there could be delays in processing them. Bybit CEO Ben Zhou said on social media that his company would remain solvent even if the hacked crypto wasn’t recovered. “We can cover the loss,” he said.
How hackers stole $1.5 billion in crypto from Bybit's cold wallet -- When North Korean hacker group Lazarus stole nearly $1.5 billion worth of ethereum tokens from crypto exchange Bybit, one question was: How? The tokens were stored in cold wallets, unconnected to the internet and theoretically out of reach of cyberthieves. Lazarus Group, hackers based in North Korea, tricked Bybit CEO Ben Zhou into approving a transfer of 400,000 ethereum tokens from his company's cold wallet.
Crypto exchange Bybit says it fully replenished reserves after record $1.5 billion hack -- Bybit said it replenished its reserves following a $1.5 billion hack last week, the largest in the history of the crypto industry.In less than 72 hours, Bybit pieced together hundreds of thousands of ether tokens through a mix of emergency loans and large deposits. While the rapid recovery restored the exchange's balance and kept customer withdrawals open, it did not account for the stolen crypto.The breach occurred during a routine internal transfer, when Bybit was moving funds from its offline "cold wallet," designed for secure, long-term storage, to a "warm wallet," which enables active trading. During that transfer, hackers exploited security gaps, intercepting the transaction and redirecting the funds to an unknown address. Bybit CEO Ben Zhou wrote in a post on social media site X on Sunday that the exchange remained solvent, adding that client assets were still fully backed and that withdrawals remained open.The company secured nearly 447,000 ether tokens through emergency funding from firms such as Galaxy Digital, FalconX and Wintermute. A proof of reserves audit conducted by cybersecurity firm Hacken confirmed that Bybit had successfully restored its reserves, verifying that all major assets — including bitcoin, ether, solana, tether and USDC — exceeded a 100% collateralization ratio.Recovering the stolen assets remains a challenge.Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic has identified North Korea's Lazarus Group as the perpetrators of the attack. The stolen funds were initially dispersed across 50 different wallets, each holding about 10,000 ether tokens, according to Elliptic, as part of an effort to launder the coins. As of Feb. 24, more than $195 million, or roughly 14.5% of the stolen assets, have already been transferred. Bybit has offered a 10% bounty for the return of the stolen funds, but history suggests the odds of recovery are slim.The Lazarus Group has a track record of laundering crypto to evade international sanctions, reportedly using stolen assets to fund North Korea's nuclear program. In 2022, the group stole $600 million from Axie Infinity and, despite law enforcement intervention, only $30 million was recovered.Ether, the token at the center of this attack, has fallen about 5% over the past day.
American Express removes a hurdle for Chinese travel -- U.S. payment companies have long had difficulty establishing their business in China because of logistical and regulatory hurdles, a challenge American Express is hoping to reduce by integrating with Alipay, one of China's largest payment companies. The company's cards will combine with the Alipay digital wallet, enabling foreign travelers to use local currency while reducing fees and processing steps. That and more in the American Banker global payments roundup.
CFPB dismisses lawsuit against lending platform SoLo Funds -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau dismissed its pending lawsuit against SoLo Funds, a peer-to-peer lending company, on Friday. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and SoLo Funds, a small-loan fintech, mutually dismissed a case regarding loan cost disclosures and state licensing.
Fed's Barr: Banks can and do serve crypto customers -- The Federal Reserve's top regulator said the central bank has not sought to drive a wedge between the crypto sector and the traditional banking system. The Federal Reserve's outgoing vice chair for supervision touted a "culture of curiosity" among the central bank's supervisors, but said it is a challenge to balance responsibility and innovation.
Stablecoin regs needed for banks to adopt DeFi: S&P study --The lack of regulation in the U.S. is the primary inhibitor of widespread adoption of stablecoins, according to a recent S&P Global study. The lack of government clarity on stablecoins has prevented traditional financial institutions like large banks from entering the space.
Bank groups ask crypto czar David Sacks to revise rules --Six major banking associations sent a letter to the White House Crypto Czar David Sacks calling on the President's Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to revise rules that prevent banks from working with cryptocurrencies. The ABA, BPI and SIFMA are among the groups asking Sacks to make it easier for banks to engage in crypto-related activity.
Could AI take the place of your bank examiner? It makes sense that traditional compliance culture is backward-looking. Historically, understanding how risky situations have unfolded into crises has been the single best way to make sure a similar situation does not occur in the future. Yet, financial industry history finds ways of repeating itself in new asset classes and market segments. And today, the proliferation of data speeds up the development of previously unseen types of risk and event correlations, augmenting the possibility of a large-scale calamity despite extensive regulation. Much of the conversation about artificial intelligence in banking focuses on compliance. But we should seriously consider the potential AI-powered regulation could have to deliver more adaptive and responsive oversight.
BankThink Synapse failure reveals regulators' BaaS blind spots --How can we ensure Synapse is the last instance when a middleware banking-as-a-service (BaaS) partnership implodes? Regulators need to consider the risk and complexity of a BaaS companies and connect the dots to bank safety and soundness and consumer protection.
How big of a problem is debanking? No one knows for sure - The practice of "debanking" — when a bank unilaterally closes a consumer or business account — has emerged as a critical node of the second Trump administration's regulatory agenda, with lawmakersand regulators vowing to crack down on the practice. But quantifying just how frequently debanking occurs and why has proven a nearly impossible challenge. Lawmakers and regulators are cracking down on banks closing consumer accounts, but neither banks nor regulators have hard numbers on how big of a problem debanking really is — or why accounts are closed.
Banks face promise and peril with weakened regulators - Banks have been encouraged by the Tr ump administration's promises to reduce their regulatory burdens, but the simultaneous efforts to reduce the federal workforce — including among independent bank regulators — could have unforeseen consequences in supervision and enforcement, experts say. President Trump's deregulatory promises have drawn praise from bank leaders, but leave experts worried of the potential for slipshod enforcement going forward.
Community bank group opposes regulator consolidation -Community banks want the White House to tread carefully as it seeks to reform the federal bank regulatory apparatus. The Independent Community Bankers of America issued a statement supporting agency independence and called for "careful study" before the administration pursues merging bank regulatory agencies.
State banking advocate: Consolidation would hurt small banks - A top advocate for state banking regulators said consolidating bank regulatory agencies would eliminate the diverse perspectives that currently shape financial oversight, weaken state-chartered banks and ultimately harm community banking. Brandon Milhorn warned that merging federal bank regulators would weaken state oversight, harm community bank and erode the diverse perspectives in finance.
Fed's Barr says supervisors need more data on deposit flows -- In his final week on the job, the Federal Reserve's top regulator said supervisors need real-time information about the movement of bank deposits. During his final week as the Federal Reserve's top regulator, Michael Barr outlined several proposals that he believes would bolster the financial system against emerging risks.
FDIC: Number of Problem Banks Decreased in Q4 2024 -- The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4 2024: The banking industry reported full-year net income of $268.2 billion, up $14.1 billion (5.6 percent) from 2023. The aggregate return-on-assets ratio (ROA) increased 3 basis points to 1.12 percent. The increase primarily occurred due to one-time events in 2023 and 2024 that led to lower noninterest expense (down $8.5 billion, or 1.4 percent), higher noninterest income (up $6.0 billion, or 2.0 percent), and lower realized securities losses (down $5.3 billion, or 46.3 percent) in 2024. The full-year net interest margin decreased to 3.22 percent, down 8 basis points from 2023. ... Asset Quality Metrics Remained Generally Favorable, Though Weakness in Certain Portfolios Persisted. Past-due and nonaccrual (PDNA) loans, or loans 30 or more days past due or in nonaccrual status, increased 7 basis points from the prior quarter to 1.60 percent of total loans. The industry’s PDNA ratio remained below the pre-pandemic average of 1.94 percent. The PDNA ratio for non-owner occupied commercial real estate (CRE) loans declined 5 basis points to 2.02 percent but remained 129 basis points above the pre-pandemic average. Despite declining slightly in the fourth quarter, the PDNA rate for the non-owner occupied CRE portfolio remained elevated, largely driven by office loans at banks with more than $250 billion in assets. However, these banks tend to have lower concentrations of such loans in relation to total assets and capital than smaller institutions, mitigating the overall risk. The industry’s net charge-off ratio increased 4 basis points from the prior quarter to 0.70 percent, 5 basis points higher than the year-earlier quarter and 22 basis points above the pre-pandemic average. The credit card net charge-off ratio was 4.57 percent in the fourth quarter, up 9 basis points quarter over quarter and 109 basis points above the pre-pandemic average. From the FDIC: The number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem Bank List” decreased from 68 to 66 in the fourth quarter. Problem banks represented 1.5 percent of total banks at year-end, which is within the normal range of 1 to 2 percent of all banks during non-crisis periods. This graph from the FDIC shows the number of problem banks.
FDIC withdraws support for Colo. interest rate exportation law --The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Monday withdrew an amicus brief it filed last year in support of a Colorado state law allowing state authorities to cap interest on loans taken out by its residents from out-of-state lenders. The FDIC withdrew its amicus brief supporting Colorado's opt-out law on interest rate exportation, highlighting the agency's more fintech-friendly regulatory approach under acting Chair Travis Hill.
Top banks eliminate or reduce DEI talk in annual reports -- The post-George Floyd era of the U.S. banking industry is over — unambiguously so. Banks' latest annual reports, filed in the early weeks of the second Trump administration, provide a window into how the industry is adjusting to a new political climate.
FDIC sheds 10% of workforce; more cuts likely -- Between 600 and 700 employees of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. — just over 10% of the agency's workforce — have been let go as of the last day of February, according to a person familiar with the matter. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. cut between 600 and 700 of its employees as President Trump's federal downsizing effort advances, fueling concerns over oversight and potential agency consolidation.
RBC raises loss provision amid concern over U.S. tariffs --- As U.S. tariffs loom, Canada's largest bank is hoping for the best but preparing for the worst. Canada's largest bank is bracing for the impact of a threatened U.S. 25% tariff on imports from north of the border. But the cloudy 2025 outlook was offset by strong results last quarter.
CFPB's union says bureau is being illegally dismantled -- The union representing Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employees said the Trump administration has illegally dismantled the agency by firing hundreds of employees, closing its Washington, D.C. headquarters, canceling leases and halting all legally required functions — all of which they say can only be done by an act of Congress. The union representing Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employees said in a court filing that the Trump administration's actions to reduce the agency's workforce and cut spending violate the law.
'Elon Musk is not your boss,' union tells CFPB employees -- The National Treasury Employees Union told federal workers not to respond to a mass email over the weekend demanding that they list five accomplishments last week or risk losing their jobs, stating: ''Elon Musk is not your boss.'' Consumer Financial Protection Bureau employees — most of whom are on administrative leave — were asked in an email to list what they accomplished last week. National Treasury Employees Union Chapter 335 said workers should list all the tasks they were told not to perform.
Exclusive: Waters presses big banks on CFPB oversight gap --House Financial Services Committee ranking member Maxine Waters, D-Calif., asked trade groups representing large banks to detail how their members' compliance regimes have changed since the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau was effectively shuttered.
Democrat senators question what Elon Musk plans to do with CFPB data - Democrat lawmakers led by Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren on Tuesday held a forum pushing back against the moves that the Trump administration and Elon Musk have taken to neutralize the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Guests at the event included a retired military veteran helped by the agency, a mortgage broker who said the CFPB has helped curb industry abuses, and the bureau's former head for supervision. But the focus of the senators' attention was Elon Musk, the driving force behind the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. While Musk was invited to the Washington, D.C, event, according to Warren, he didn't make an appearance. The lawmakers questioned whether Musk was conflicted in his efforts to dismantle the CFPB, highlighting his recent plan to launch a digital payments service within X, the social media network he owns. "By seizing control of the agency, Musk can now root through all of the CFPB's confidential data that DOGE has accessed on these potential competitors," Warren said. "As Musk launches his new app, he faces oversight from the CFPB. His plan seems to be to eliminate the watchdog." A representative for Musk and X didn't immediately respond to request for comment. Earlier this month, operatives from DOGE gained access to CFPB systems, shortly before the bureau's new leadership shuttered the agency's headquarters, froze nearly all activities and laid off roughly 200 employees. A CFPB union has alleged in a lawsuit that acting CFPB Director Russell Vought intends to fire more than 95% of the agency's staff. "Elon, how do you justify shutting down the agency that's going to be looking at your peer-to-peer payment plan?" Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D.-Minn., asked rhetorically during the hearing Tuesday. "How do you justify shutting down the agency that has jurisdiction and oversight over many of the other financial issues that you are going to make money from doing?" Responding to a question from Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D.-Md., about what Musk could do with CFPB data, Lorelei Salas, the former CFPB supervision director, said the regulator kept "very sensitive trade secret information," including from payments services PayPal , CashApp and Zelle, as well as online lenders. "We've been looking at a number of digital wallet companies, payments companies, and we have information… on the technologies that they're using," Salas said. "We have information on the secret sauce of the credit models that people used with artificial intelligence to make decisions about whether you get a loan or not." Late last year, the CFPB took steps to supervise tech giants and payments firms that dominate the market, including Appleand PayPal, and sued the operator of the Zelle payments network and the three biggest U.S. banks using it for allegedly failing to properly investigate fraud complaints. Besides confidential data on companies examined by the CFPB, the agency has "very sensitive data" from consumers filing complaints, Salas added. Consumers often leave account numbers and other personal data in their complaints, agency sources have said.Now, with the CFPB and its employees in a state of limbo, the question is how far Musk and Vought can take their campaign to minimize the watchdog. A federal judge has halted their efforts, saying that they cannot fire employees or purge bureau data for the time being. "The CFPB has been sidelined, but it is not dead," Warren said, asserting that only Congress can shut down the bureau. "Advocates are in court right now asking judges to enforce the law, and I am confident they are going to win."
'There should be an outrage': Democrats rally for CFPB - Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., organized a "forum" hearing Tuesday to underscore the positive influence that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has had on Americans' financial lives and the damage that the Trump administration is having on the agency, vowing to fight the administration in court. In a forum Tuesday, Senate Democrats railed against President Trump and Elon Musk's efforts to shutter the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau as anti-consumer and illegal.
Exclusive: Rep. Barr offers bills to curb CFPB powers -- Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., is introducing a bill limiting the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's unfair, deceptive or abusive acts and practices authority and another limiting its ability to issue investigative subpoenas.
CFPB dismisses enforcement action against TransUnion — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has dropped its enforcement action against TransUnion, one of many cases the bureau has abandoned as it rolls back its enforcement actions under new directives from the Trump administration. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's decision to no longer pursue its enforcement action against the credit reporting bureau marks the eighth lawsuit dropped by the agency in recent days.
CFPB dismisses Rocket, Vanderbilt Mortgage lawsuits -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has dropped lawsuits against Rocket Homes and brokerage The Mitchell Group, and Vanderbilt Mortgage & Finance. Housing finance players accused of wronging consumers slammed the lawsuits as politically motivated efforts by former Biden-era bureau director Rohit Chopra.
CFPB still wants your Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data -- The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau still wants your mortgage data by Monday. While the March 3 submission deadline holds firm, compliance experts suggested guidance inquiries for Home Mortgage Disclosure Act filers could be lacking.
Private credit rush to property expected to boost bank returns
- Loan on loans, a relatively new and growing form of lending in Europe, involves borrowers securing a loan from a private credit fund, which in turn borrows from a bank.
- The loan amount issued by the bank to the credit fund is rated as less risky than an equivalent loan issued directly to the borrower, which benefits banks.
- A Knight Frank poll of lenders indicates that 90% of those surveyed said back leverage is set to become "the market standard" of commercial real estate lending if it hasn't already.
How the FHLbank System's regulatory direction could shift -- The support the Federal Home Loan Bank System's new regulator, William Pulte, is giving to its statutory mandate for affordable housing — with some openness to discussion — will likely come with some change in direction around what types of programs fulfill the goal. Ryan Donovan, the Council of Federal Home Loan Banks' CEO, foresees affordable housing mandates becoming more focused on home supply than demand.
HUD secretary announcing elimination of rule Trump warned would ‘destroy the value of houses’ - Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Scott Turner said he would terminate the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing (AFFH) rule on Wednesday, repealing the law which was enacted to “overcome historic patterns of segregation.” President Trump originally terminated the rule created during the Obama administration in 2020 after he said it would “destroy the value of houses” but it was restored by former President Biden in 2021.“By terminating the AFFH rule, localities will no longer be required to complete onerous paperwork and drain their budgets to comply with the extreme and restrictive demands made up by the federal government,” Turner said in a Wednesday statement obtained by The Hill.“This action also returns decisions on zoning, home building, transportation, and more to local leaders,” he added.The HUD secretary outlined a new process that no longer requires local zoning decisions to be informed by a 92-question grading tool as well as an analysis of impediments.It repeals former President Barack Obama’s expansion of the Fair Housing Act (FHA) which was passed as part of the Civil Rights Act of 1968.
Bessent says housing will 'unfreeze' in weeks, sees 2% inflation -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expects the U.S. housing market to pick up steam after recent indicators came in below forecasts, and he sees potential for inflation to return to the Federal Reserve's 2% target "quickly." Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects the U.S. housing market to quickly pick up steam after recent indicators came in below forecasts.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey - From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly SurveyMortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 21, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 45 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Treasury yields moved lower on softer consumer spending data as consumers are feeling somewhat less upbeat about the economy and job market. This pushed mortgage rates lower, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.88 percent, the lowest rate since mid December,” “Applications were about one percent lower for the week, which included the President’s Day holiday, as purchase applications stayed flat from a week ago while refinance applications saw a small decline. Purchase applications were up 3 percent from the same week last year. Increasing for-sale inventory in some markets has provided prospective buyers more options as we approach the spring homebuying season.” “Although overall refinance application activity remained fairly weak, FHA refinance applications saw an 8 percent increase over the week. Compared to last year, overall refinance applications were up 45 percent....The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.88 percent from 6.93 percent, with points decreasing to 0.61 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 3% year-over-year unadjusted.
Housing Feb 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 28.7% Year-over-year-- Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week.Inventory always declines seasonally in the Winter and usually bottoms in January or February. Inventory is now up 2.5% from the bottom six weeks ago in January.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 28.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 29.2%), and down 21.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.1%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels has closed significantly!This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Feb 21st, inventory was at 640 thousand (7-day average), compared to 638 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube
Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December -S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 3.9% Annual Gain in December 2024The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.9% annual return for December, up from a 3.7% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 5.1%, up from a 5% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, up from a 4.3% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 7.2% increase in December, followed by Chicago and Boston with annual increases of 6.6% and 6.3%, respectively. Tampa posted the lowest return, falling 1.1%. ... The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National and 20-City Composite Indices’ upward trends continued to reverse in December, with both posting a -0.1% drop. The 10-City Composite’s monthly return dropped 0.04%. After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National, 20-City, and 10-City Composite Indices all posted a month-over-month increase of 0.5%. “National home prices have risen by 8.8% annually since 2020, led by markets in Florida, North Carolina, Southern California, and Arizona. While our National Index continues to trend above inflation, we are a few years removed from peak home price appreciation of 18.9% observed in 2021 and are seeing below-trend growth over the history of the index. “Home prices stalled during the second half of the year with markets in the West dropping the fastest. San Francisco, the worst performing market since 2020, dropped 4.5% during the last six months of the year, followed by Seattle with a 3.0% decline. San Francisco is now 11.0% lower than its post-pandemic peak reached in May 2022. Previous strongholds like San Diego and Tampa experienced declines of 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively, during the second half of the year. After accounting for seasonal adjustments, our National Index pushed forward to achieve a 19th consecutive all-time high,” “The longest such streak occurred for over 12-years, notching 153 consecutive all-time highs from July 1993 to March 2006. “The Northeast continues to lead all regions with above-trend growth, led by New York for the eighth consecutive time. Boston reached an all-time high, the only market to do so for the period ended December 2024." The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000). The Composite 10 index was up 0.5% in December (SA). The Composite 20 index was up 0.5% (SA) in December. The National index was up 0.5% (SA) in December. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices. Annual price changes were close to expectations.
Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December -- Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December Excerpt: S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for December ("December" is a 3-month average of October, November and December closing prices). December closing prices include some contracts signed in August, so there is a significant lag to this data. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at 0.46% (a 5.7% annual rate), This was the 23rd consecutive MoM increase in the seasonally adjusted index. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices increased month-to-month in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities (prices declined in Washington, D.C. and Tampa seasonally adjusted). San Francisco has fallen 5.7% from the recent peak, Phoenix is down 1.2% from the peak, and Tampa down 1.2%.
NAR: Pending Home Sales Decrease 4.6% in January to an "All-time low" -From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 4.6% in January - Pending home sales pulled back 4.6% in January according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South and West experienced month-over-month losses in transactions – with the most significant drop in the South – while the Northeast saw a modest gain. Year-over-year, contract signings lowered in all four U.S. regions, with the South seeing the greatest falloff.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – fell 4.6% to 70.6 in January, an all-time low. (Last year's cyclical low point in July 2024 was revised from 70.2 to 71.2.) Year-over-year, pending transactions declined 5.2%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001."It is unclear if the coldest January in 25 years contributed to fewer buyers in the market, and if so, expect greater sales activity in upcoming months," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "However, it's evident that elevated home prices and higher mortgage rates strained affordability."...The Northeast PHSI rose 0.3% from last month to 63.4, down 0.5% from January 2024. The Midwest index contracted 2.0% to 72.8 in January, down 2.7% from the previous year.The South PHSI plunged 9.2% to 81.0 in January, down 8.8% from a year ago. Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in February and March.
New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January -- The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were revised up.Sales of new single-family houses in January 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.5 percent below the revised December rate of 734,000 and is 1.1 percent below the January 2024 estimate of 664,000.The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.New home sales were slightly below pre-pandemic levels.The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.The months of supply increased in January to 9.0 months from 8.0 months in December. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020. This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal)."The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 495,000. This represents a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales rate."Sales were below expectations of 678 thousand SAAR, however sales for the three previous months were revised up.
Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. The previous three months were revised up....The next graph shows new home sales for 2024 and 2025 by month (Seasonally AdjustedAnnual Rate). Sales in January 2025 were down 1.1% from January 2024. New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have increased year-over-year in 19 of the last 22 months. This is essentially the opposite of what happened with existing home sales that had been down year-over-year every month for 3+ years (existing home sales have been up year-over-year for the last 4 months).
Egg prices expected to rise more than 40 percent in 2025: USDA - Egg prices are at an all-time high and expected to get even worse for consumers, according to a new U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projection.The USDA’s latest outlook predicts egg prices will increase 41 percent in 2025 as a widespread bird flu outbreak continues to devastate egg-laying chicken flocks.Tuesday’s updated forecast is more than double the 20 percent jump in egg prices the agency projected for 2025 a month ago.The bleak outlook stems from the fact that roughly 18.8 million commercial egg layers were affected by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in January, the highest monthly total since the outbreak began in 2022, the USDA said. Last month, the average price for a dozen eggs hit a record $4.95, up from $2.52 a year prior. In some places, a carton of eggs can cost $10 or more. Soaring “egg-flation” has pushed some to take drastic measures, like illegally smuggling eggs into the U.S. from Mexico. Others are turning away from the grocery store, buying backyard chickens that produce eggs on their own.Major businesses have also taken steps to combat soaring egg prices. Budget-friendly chain Waffle House has added a $0.50 per egg surcharge to all of its menus. Denny’s is also adding an egg surcharge at some locations due to rising costs.Meanwhile, grocers like Costco and Trader Joe’s are limiting the number of cartons customers can buy.
February Vehicle Forecast: Sales Increase to 15.9 million SAAR, Up 1.5% YoY -- From WardsAuto: February U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content). Brief excerpt: Sales are recording solid gains, but production slowdowns capping dealer stock in a growth market – a market that ostensibly still is climbing out of the trough caused by the pandemic and supply-chain issues - suggest the industry overall wants to maintain profit margins but also has a high level of uncertainty about 2025 and does not want to be in a position of having to make sudden, bigger cuts if the market weakens at some point this year. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for February (Red). On a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis, the Wards forecast of 15.9 million SAAR, would be up 1.9% from last month, and up 1.5% from a year ago.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 242,000 --The DOL reported: In the week ending February 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000, an increase of 22,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 215,250 to 215,500.The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 224,000.The previous week was revised up.Weekly claims were well above the consensus forecast.
Supreme Court leaves Tennessee law restricting drag performances intact -The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a challenge to a Tennessee law restricting some drag performances, allowing the first-in-the-nation law to remain largely intact. In a brief, unsigned order, the justices denied a Tennessee theater company’s request to intervene in its challenge to the state’s limits on drag, first enacted in 2023 by the Republican-dominated Legislature. While the law does not explicitly mention drag shows, state lawmakers said the measure was meant to restrict them. A Tennessee court had previously deemed the law, which targets “adult-oriented performances” that take place in public or where they may be seen by minors, unconstitutional, blocking its enforcement in parts of the state. A federal appeals court reversed that decision in July, ruling that the Memphis-based theater group Friends of George’s lacked the legal standing to challenge Tennessee’s restrictions. Friends of George’s had argued the state’s law would negatively impact them because they produce “drag-centric performances, comedy sketches, and plays” outside of age-restricted venues. But the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said the group did not risk violating the law because their performances were not “harmful to minors.” In passing the restrictions on drag, state lawmakers amended Tennessee’s definition of adult cabaret entertainment to mean adult-oriented performances that feature topless or exotic dancers or “male or female impersonators.” Restricted performances must also be “harmful to minors,” which Tennessee law defines as lacking “serious literary, artistic, political or scientific values” and appealing “to the prurient, shameful or morbid interests.” In dismissing Friend of George’s case, the 6th Circuit ruled the law only prohibits public performances that lack value “for a reasonable 17-year-old,” which the group argued to the Supreme Court unlawfully narrowed the scope of the law.
57,000 University of California workers launch strike -- On Wednesday, nearly 57,000 University of California (UC) workers began a strike across all 10 campuses and five medical centers.Workers have every reason to strike. UPTE-CWA’s 20,000 research and technical employees have accused UC of hiding staffing vacancy data, unlawfully raising healthcare costs, and stifling worker advocacy. The 37,000 AFSCME Local 3299 members, including hospital technicians, echo these concerns.Despite widespread dissatisfaction over wages, understaffing and deteriorating conditions, rather than mobilizing workers for a real struggle AFSCME and UPTE have limited the action to just two and three days, respectively, framing it as an Unfair Labor Practice (ULP) strike. This follows a long pattern of deliberately limiting strikes to one or two days, as seen in November 2024, when a two-day strike resulted in no meaningful gains.The decision to categorize the strike as a ULP further dilutes its potential impact. This legal framework restricts the scope of the strike, preventing workers from addressing the core economic issues at the heart of their discontent. By focusing on legal technicalities, the union bureaucracy diverts attention from the pressing matters of fair wages and adequate staffing, effectively neutering the strike’s effectiveness.The militancy of the UC workers stands in stark contrast to the tepid strategies employed by their unions. These employees are integral to the functioning of the university system, performing critical roles that range from patient care to research support. Their commitment to their work and their willingness to take collective action underscore a profound potential for meaningful struggle.However, this militancy is consistently undermined by the union leadership that opts for symbolic, short-term strikes over sustained and united action. Time and again, the bureaucracies have sabotaged strikes, just as AFSCME did in 2019 with six ineffective one-day strikes.
As McMahon hearing signals unprecedented attacks on public education, teacher union bureaucrats launch “email Congress” campaign --Public education is under existential attack, with the Department of Education (ED) already being dismantled by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) and with the imminent installation of Trump acolyte and privatization advocate Linda McMahon as Secretary of Education. As of this date, more than 100 Department of Education employees have been let go, and approximately $900 million has been cut, severely impacting the department’s research arm, the Institute of Education Sciences (IES). Among the immediate studies being affected are those that track student learning from kindergarten through high school, research evaluating strategies for teaching elementary school reading, and evaluations on the effectiveness of support for youth with disabilities. Last week, the Education Department eliminated two major teacher training programs. The department terminated the Teacher Quality Partnerships program, which had an annual budget of $70 million, and the Supporting Effective Educator Development (SEED) grants, which were allocated $80 million per year. According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump team has already drafted an executive order eliminating the Department of Education which they plan to release after McMahon is confirmed as secretary. “The Department of Education’s a big con job,” Trump told reporters on February 12, saying he would “like it to be closed immediately.” The Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee (HELP) last week advanced the nomination of McMahon with a vote along party lines of 12-11. This is expected to be ratified by a full vote of the Senate in the coming days. At her February 13 hearing in front of the HELP committee, the billionaire wrestling industry executive denounced the Department of Education, saying it was responsible for “the vast majority of bureaucracy and red tape” in the nation’s educational system. She also endorsed the agency’s breakup and said, “The bottom line is, because it’s not working.” While acknowledging that only Congress can close the Department of Education, McMahon stated that federal oversight of public schools is unnecessary because it “is best handled at the state level, closest to the states, working with state administrators, teachers and parents, who should have input into their curriculum.” Throughout the hearing McMahon reiterated her staunch support for major expansion of school privatization efforts. Supporting the comments by Republican Senator Jon Husted from Ohio that “freedom and choice is good … for markets and business” and that schools should be treated the same, McMahon added that school choice is one of the cornerstones of the Trump administration’s policy on education. She cynically claimed that “school choice” makes schools “more competitive” and provides families with an opportunity to leave underfunded public schools. Some state budgets are already shifting funds from public schools to voucher and school choice programs after Trump’s recent executive order promoting the diversion of public funds to for-profit charters, private and parochial schools. In Ohio, $100 million is slated to be cut over two years while increasing funds for vouchers. Tennessee recently enacted a $447 million statewide school choice program. For their part, the Democrats have bent over to accommodate the attacks on public education. Bernie Sanders, the HELP committee’s ranking delegate for the minority party, said, “Is it [the Department of Education] a perfect entity? No. Is it bureaucratic? Yes. Can we reform it? Yes. Should we abolish it? No.” Senator Tim Kaine, a Democrat from Virginia, likewise said he found areas of agreement with McMahon. However, he said he would not vote for someone “who will willfully engage in the destruction of the very agency she wants to lead.” The Democrats continue to seek common ground with McMahon, a figure who will lead the Trump administration’s unprecedented attacks on public education. At first claiming that McMahon was “elegantly gaslighting” the committee, Senator Maggie Hassan (D-New Hampshire) made certain to emphasize the bipartisan support for expanding Career and Technical Education (CTE) in schools, and her willingness to work with McMahon. At the hearing, McMahon reiterated the threat to deny federal funding to schools. After several senators asked what will happen to the funding for K-12 schools the Department of Education administers such as Title I and IDEA, McMahon claimed that funds approved by Congress would be distributed. She added, however, that “it is worthwhile to take a look at the programs before money goes out the door.” During questioning, she refused to answer whether teaching African American history would target a school district for a reduction or cut off of federal funding. Responding to a question about whether IDEA funds would be cut, McMahon said residents “should not be concerned that Federal funding is going away from their schools” and that only “ how they get that funding may change.” McMahon said IDEA funds would likely be distributed by the department of Health and Human Services (HHS). “I think that funding could very well go back to HHS where it started.” HHS is now headed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a notorious supporter of anti-science and anti-vaccine disinformation. Placing IDEA funds in the hands of HHS and RFK Jr. will have enormous negative impacts for students leaving students with disabilities vulnerable to inconsistent state-level support. McMahon also backed Trump’s fascistic attacks on democratic rights of students and teachers. Fascist Republican Senator Josh Hawley from Montana, railed against students who protested on campuses against the Israeli genocide, during his time for questioning. McMahon reassured Senator Hawley that she will absolutely enforce Title VI investigations on campuses, remove funds from these universities, and deport student protesters with visas. The Trump administration’s unprecedented assault on public education is exacerbating the already dire situation faced by schools across the United States. This attack follows decades of underfunding by both parties, which continued under the Biden administration. District officials cite declining enrollment and birth rates, as well as the ending of COVID-relief funding as pretexts for slashing jobs, vital programs, and closing schools.
Trump’s federal purge threatens Native American universities and tribal sovereignty -- The Trump administration’s aggressive efforts to slash the federal workforce have dealt a severe blow to Native American educational institutions, exacerbating the long history of violent dispossession and ongoing oppression of Indigenous communities under capitalism. The administration’s mass firings, executed under the guise of “government efficiency,” are dismantling essential services and threatening the future of tribal self-determination. Among the hardest-hit institutions is Haskell Indian Nations University, which has been forced to lay off dozens of employees, placing its accreditation at risk and jeopardizing student services. Southwestern Indian Polytechnic Institute (SIPI) in Albuquerque, New Mexico, has similarly lost seven employees, and broader cuts have ravaged agencies that provide critical support to Native communities. The Bureau of Indian Affairs (BIA) has lost 188 employees, while 2,600 Department of the Interior workers have been dismissed. Initially, 20 percent of the Indian Health Service workforce faced layoffs, although these cuts were later withdrawn following significant backlash. However, the pattern is clear: Native-serving programs are on the chopping block. The layoffs are part of a broader restructuring orchestrated by Elon Musk, who has been granted sweeping powers by Donald Trump over federal agencies through the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Under Musk’s directive, the Trump administration has implemented large-scale reductions in the federal workforce, specifically targeting federal oversight agencies, public education, and environmental protections. These cuts serve the dual purpose of funding tax breaks for the wealthy and increasing allocations to military and law enforcement agencies. Trump’s executive order, which enabled the firings, mandates federal agency heads to undertake mass layoffs while specifically targeting diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives. The implications are clear: tribal educational institutions, many of which operate under Indian Self-Determination and Education Assistance Act (ISDEAA) contracts, are facing an existential crisis. Sierra Two Bulls, an Oglala Lakota from the Oglala Sioux Tribe, was among those laid off. She had been a faculty member at Haskell Indian Nations University for six months after serving as an adjunct instructor for seven years. Beyond the loss of her position, Two Bulls expressed deep concern for her students, many of whom will now face disruptions to their education. Speaking to the LastRealIndians website, she said, “I am devastated and heartbroken not only for myself and my colleagues but also for all our students. The first is my job security with great benefits like my healthcare plan. The second is I am no longer able to teach and empower our next generation of Native students who are our future leaders.” The ISDEAA, passed in 1975, was a concession to the struggle for tribal self-governance. The law granted Native nations greater control over education, healthcare, and other essential services, allowing tribes to contract with federal agencies to administer their own programs. The act empowered tribes to direct resources according to their needs, fostering self-governance and cultural preservation. It allowed tribes to assume control of educational institutions, ensuring that curricula reflect Indigenous knowledge and traditions. The Trump administration’s mass firings, however, undermine the very foundations of ISDEAA, as the loss of federal personnel stalls the administration of self-determination contracts and leaves tribal schools and colleges in limbo. The consequences of these cuts are dire and far-reaching. The mass layoffs at BIA and the Department of the Interior signal a broader rollback of financial support for tribal programs, leading to uncertainty and budget shortfalls for Native-run institutions. With fewer personnel to process contracts and oversee programs, tribes face delays in receiving federal funds, threatening education, healthcare, and infrastructure projects. By slashing the workforce responsible for administering self-governance agreements, the administration is effectively re-centralizing power in Washington D.C., stripping tribes of their hard-won autonomy. The layoffs at Haskell and SIPI are only the beginning—tribal colleges and universities across the country will struggle to maintain faculty, student services, and accreditation.
Antidepressants linked to faster cognitive decline in dementia --New research suggests that antidepressants can accelerate cognitive decline in people with dementia. At the same time, some drugs appear to be less harmful than others, which can help doctors make better treatment decisions, according to the paper, "Antidepressant use and cognitive decline in patients with dementia: a national cohort study," published inBMC Medicine. Antidepressants are often used to relieve symptoms such as anxiety, depression, aggressiveness, and sleep disturbances in dementia sufferers.However, a new observational study based on data from the Swedish Dementia Registry (SveDem) shows that patients with dementia who are treated with antidepressants experience an increased cognitive decline compared to patients who do not receive this medication.The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of registry data from 18,740 patients, of whom approximately 23% were treated with antidepressants. During the course of the study, a total of 11,912 prescriptions of antidepressants were registered, with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) accounting for 65%."Depressive symptoms can both worsen cognitive decline and impair quality of life, so it is important to treat them. Our results can help doctors and other health care professionals choose antidepressants that are better adapted for patients with dementia,"
Sudden vision loss in children: Study in China points to a novel retinal disorder - A multicenter study led by researchers from the State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology in China has characterized a distinct retinal disorder in children following high fever illness. The study describes hyperacute outer retinal dysfunction (HORD), a condition marked by sudden bilateral vision loss, photoreceptor disruption, and variable recovery.Eight pediatric patients between the ages of 3 and 7 experienced severe, sudden-onset vision loss approximately two weeks after a febrile illness. Despite initial poor visual acuity, most showed significant central vision recovery over one year. Comprehensive retinal imaging revealed characteristic ellipsoid zone (EZ) and external limiting membrane (ELM) disruptions. Electroretinography (ERG) findings demonstrated extinguished cone and rod responses, even in cases where vision improved.In the study, "Hyperacute Outer Retinal Dysfunction," published in JAMA Ophthalmology, researchers examined eight children (16 eyes) referred to pediatric retina services in China. Patients had no prior history of visual impairment and underwent thorough ophthalmic and systemic evaluations. Exclusion criteria included inherited retinal disease, uveitis, and white dot syndromes.Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was assessed at baseline and during follow-up. Multimodal imaging included color fundus photography, ultra-widefield imaging, optical coherence tomography (OCT), fluorescence angiography, fundus autofluorescence, and electroretinography. Genetic and serological testing was conducted to rule out inherited and autoimmune retinal diseases. Patients received varying immunosuppressive treatments, including corticosteroids, intravenous immunoglobulin and methotrexate.Initial symptoms included severe bilateral vision loss, nyctalopia, visual field constriction, and dyschromatopsia. At presentation, the patient's mean visual acuity was below the ability to count fingers correctly. OCT imaging showed diffuse EZ and ELM loss, while early fundus findings were largely unremarkable.By the fourth week, signs of macular recovery appeared. At one year, 88% (7 of 8 patients) achieved visual acuity of 20/40 or better, with 50% (4 of 8) reaching 20/25 or better. Macular EZ and ELM appeared intact in 75% and 88% of eyes, respectively, though extrafoveal regions remained affected. ERG continued to show extinguished rod and cone responses despite visual improvement.
COVID excess deaths “saved” $300 billion in Social Security payments -- The devastation of the US public health system over the past month, since the inauguration of Donald Trump, may seem at first to be chaotic or even accidental, as groups of workers have been fired, then in some cases hastily rehired when it emerges that they were conducting vital work, as in monitoring H5N1 bird flu outbreaks. Much of the damage comes as a consequence of Trump appointing an array of quacks and enemies of public health to fill the top positions in the Department of Health and Human Services, including anti-vaccine demagogue Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the agency, television doctor Mehmet Oz to head the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, and COVID-19 denialist Jay Bhattacharya to head the National Institutes of Health. A study recently published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a leading corporate-backed think tank, suggests a more sinister, even malevolent motive. In deliberately wrecking the public health system, the Trump administration is counting on the ensuing rise in death rates to reduce the overall expenses of the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds, thereby freeing up money for Trump’s priorities of military spending and tax cuts for the wealthy. The NBER study estimates the effect of US COVID-19 excess mortality on Social Security outlays. There were 1,755,354 excess deaths in the US during the deadliest phase of the COVID pandemic between March 28, 2020, and January 21, 2023, for Americans 25 years old and older, according to the NBER working paper utilizing CDC data. While COVID directly was responsible for more than 1 million people in this time frame, a staggering 700,000 more Americans died of supposedly non-COVID deaths above what was expected. The death rate stood at 76 per 10,000 people. Excess deaths by quarter, cause of death, and age group (under and over 65 years), based on weekly CDC data. [Photo: National Bureau of Economic Research] The data shows the horrific impact on retirees. Three-quarters of the excess deaths, or more than 1.2 million, were among those receiving disability benefits and OASDI (Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance; the official name of the Social Security Insurance program) at the time of their death. On average they were 79.2 years of age and lost nine years of life due to the pandemic. According to this study, the members of this group would have collected on average $184,000 in retirement benefits. Their deaths had a net positive effect on the OASDI fund, “because of a reduction in future retirement benefits” to the tune of $287 billion that will not need to be paid out. The analysis also found that close to 600,000 were employed at the time of their death. In this category, the study estimated that had they lived, they would have worked an average of 10 more years and could expect to earn another 14.4 years in retirement benefits. Without the pandemic, this group would have paid $89,000 in OASDI taxes and received around $203,000 in retirement benefits. On average they lost 23.7 years of life. The COVID pandemic left a legacy of grief and destruction with 313,000 additional Social Security beneficiaries—243,000 surviving children under 18 and 70,000 surviving spouses who have children under 16. The study estimates that “on average, surviving children and spouses will receive 8.4 years and 7.5 years of benefits, with lifetime benefit amounts of $121,000 and $58,000.” These additional benefit payments to survivors come to $82 billion, partially offsetting the amount “saved” by the Trust fund from not paying benefits to those who died, leaving a net gain of $205 billion. However, since many surviving spouses and children do not claim their benefits, a further adjustment estimated at $32 billion in the savings by the Trust fund raised this amount to around $237 billion. These calculations demonstrate in cold economic terms what has been a major aspect of the “let it rip” approach to the COVID pandemic from the beginning. Those over 65 have accounted for the vast majority of those needlessly killed under a deliberate policy of social murder. The financial oligarchs regard the retired, who do not contribute to surplus value and profit, as a drain on their wealth, and the NBER study provides a numerical estimate of the “benefit” of COVID deaths for the finances of the capitalist system. One should recall the notorious 2014 article, “Why I hope to die at 75,” written by Ezekiel Emanuel, where he claimed society would be better off if the elderly simply just died “swiftly and promptly.” The oncologist brother of Rahm Emanuel, former White House chief of staff and mayor of Chicago, Ezekiel Emanuel held office as Chief of the Department of Bioethics at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center and was named by President-elect Joe Biden as a member of his COVID-19 advisory board. In a 2019 interview, he directly stated that older Americans were no longer useful members of society and questioned “whether our consumption is worth our contribution.” As we noted in a December 2022 perspective on the disproportionate elderly victims of the pandemic, “The implementation of a policy that accepts and even promotes mass death among a physically vulnerable section of the population has no modern precedent in a country claiming to be democratic. The dismantling of serious and systematic public health measures to stop the spread of COVID is viewed by powerful sections of the ruling class as an effective means of reducing the societal ‘burden’ of caring for large numbers of elderly people.”
Hospitalized COVID patients at higher risk for organ-related death, readmission for 2.5 years, data suggest -- Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were much more likely than controls to be readmitted for or die from organ disorders in the next 2.5 years, French researchers reported yesterday inInfectious Diseases.The team used national claims data to track rates of all-cause death, all-cause hospitalization, and organ-disorder–related hospital admission among 63,990 adult COVID-19 patients hospitalized from January to August 2020 for 30 months and 319,891 matched controls not hospitalized for this indication during the same period. The average participant age was 65 years, and 53.1% were men.During follow-up, the crude all-cause death rate was 17.7% in the COVID-19 group and 8.5% among controls. The weighted cumulative incidence of all-cause mortality and all-cause hospitalization was 5,218 and 16,334 per 100,000 person-years in COVID-19 patients and 4,013 and 12,095 per 100,000 person-years in controls, respectively. COVID-19 patients were more likely than controls to be hospitalized for cardiovascular (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.22), psychiatric (IRR, 1.41), neurologic (IRR, 1.50), and respiratory events (IRR, 1.99). The excess risk decreased sharply after the first 6 months for all outcomes but stayed significantly elevated for up to 30 months for neurologic and respiratory disorders, chronic kidney failure, and diabetes.In total, 22 of 29 specific organ disorders occurred at significantly higher rates in COVID-19 patients than in controls, which the authors said aligns with the findings of other studies with shorter follow-up periods. The highest rates were for myocarditis (IRR, 3.91) and peripheral thromboembolic events (IRR, 1.86).Men and women were at similar risk for hospitalization except for psychiatric hospitalization, which was mainly seen in women. While rates of readmission were elevated for all age-groups, both all-cause and organ-specific re-hospitalizations were higher in patients older than 70 years. COVID-19 patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) experienced greater rates of respiratory disorders than those not admitted to ICU, which the researchers said could be related to factors such as the severity of COVID-19 infection and ICU-related complications."These findings are a stark reminder of the far-reaching impact of COVID-19, which extends far beyond the initial infection," lead author Sarah Tubiana, PharmD, PhD, an infectious disease specialist at the Clinical Investigation Center at Bichat Hospital in Paris, said in a Taylor & Francis Group news release."While much attention has been given to the immediate dangers of the virus, our research shows that hospitalised COVID-19 survivors remain at greater risks of severe health complications months and even years later," she added. "The long-term implications for public health are significant."
More than half of COVID-19 ECMO patients die in hospital, while survivors often struggle long term, study finds --Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or ECMO, is one of the most serious life support measures offered at a hospital, with critically ill patients often receiving both heart and lung support for a number of days or weeks during organ and respiratory failure.During the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic, patients sickened most severely with the virus were moved to ECMO after ventilation failed, with a 50% survival rate.A new study in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine tracks outcomes among ECMO patients from Sept 15, 2020, when the first wave of the pandemic ended, until the declared end of the pandemic on March 21, 2023, by the World Health Organization. The primary outcomes of the study were in-hospital death and death 6 months after ECMO initiation.The authors of the study looked at ECMO patients seen at 98 centers in 21 countries, all part of EuroECMO-COVID, a prospective observational study developed by the European Extracorporeal Life Support Organization.On average, time from hospital presentation to intensive care unit admission was 8 days, and the median time from intubation to ECMO start was 3 days. The chief indication for being placed on ECMO was acute respiratory distress syndrome—for 81.1% of the patients—and 53.4% required tracheostomy. In total, there were 3,860 ECMO patients over the age of 16 years included in the study (69.7% men and 30.3% women; median age, 51 years). In-hospital mortality was 55.9% (2,158), with 81.2% of deaths occurring during ECMO support.For both survivors and non-survivors, the median number of days on ECMO was 18.For those who survived ECMO, almost all, 99.7%, were alive 6 months post-discharge. During the first wave of the pandemic, 95% of those who survived ECMO were still alive 6 months after their hospitalization.Those in the study who died were more likely to suffer co-morbidities, including diabetes, high blood pressure, sepsis, and renal failure. They were also more likely to have a longer time between intubation and ECMO placement."This study demonstrates that a high rate of complications is strongly associated with in-hospital mortality," the authors wrote. "Data from the second COVID-19 wave onwards confirmed the role of older age, co-morbidities, pre-ECMO indicators of hemodynamic instability (inotropes and vasopressors), longer intubation time before ECMO start, configuration change and complications in contributing to in-hospital mortality."Among those who survived, few had fully recovered at 6 months post-discharge. Only 11.4% of survivors resumed full-time work at that point, while 12.0% went back to part-time work.Also, a significant number of survivors had lasting symptoms at 6 months. Among survivors at that time point, 32.0% had difficulty breathing, 7.8% had cardiac symptoms, and 10.7% had neurocognitive issues.
Imaging shows significant lung injury in kids with long COVID -- Children and teens with long COVID have significant lung abnormalities detected with an advanced form of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), called free-breathing phase-resolved functional lung (PREFUL) MRI. The findings were published yesterday in Radiology.Though chest scans are used to diagnose and monitor lung function of adults with long COVID, they are less commonly used on children with persistent symptoms after COVID-19, which is also called post-COVID condition (PCC). Lung perfusion, or how blood flows in and out of the lungs, can thus be hard to detect in pediatric patients. "Because of radiation exposure and the necessity for intravenous contrast agent, CT [computed tomography] is not used as a standard diagnostic tool in children suspected of having PCC," the authors wrote. "Instead, pulmonary function tests and echocardiography, along with a comprehensive review of medical history, are performed to rule out pulmonary and cardiac differential diagnoses. However, these examinations frequently show normal lung and cardiac function in symptomatic patients, complicating the diagnostic process." PREFUL MRI, however, is a contrast agent–free and radiation-free imaging modality that may be more suitable for children.In this study, 54 participants (27 with long COVID and 27 without) underwent PREFUL from April 2022 to April 2023. The imaging assessed regional ventilation (oxygen flow), flow-volume loop correlation metric (FVL-CM), quantified perfusion (blood flow), ventilation and perfusion defect percentages, and ventilation-perfusion ratios. The median age of participants was 15 years. The PREFUL results showed that kids with long COVID had lung injuries that correlated to specific long-COVID symptoms and overall loss of blood flow in the lungs. In participants with long COVID, greater lung perfusion correlated with increased chronic fatigue severity. In addition, higher ventilation-perfusion mismatch correlated with increased heart rate.The authors concluded, "Further investigations should prioritize multicenter longitudinal studies with larger cohorts to validate these findings and evaluate the progression of lung abnormalities at various stages after COVID-19 infection."
Report: COVID survivors nearly twice as likely to have ongoing symptoms as those with flu - COVID-19 survivors have a significantly higher rate of ongoing symptoms than those who had influenza, a University of North Carolina–led research team reports, identifying underlying medical conditions and symptomatic infection as risk factors and hybrid immunity (vaccination plus previous infection) as protective. For the study, published yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases, the researchers conducted a prospective cohort study of households in which at least one member had COVID-19 or flu to evaluate the prevalence of and factors for ongoing symptoms at 90 days. The research took place at seven US sites via the Respiratory Virus Transmission Network from December 2021 to May 2023. The study period spanned the predominance of the Delta and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants. The previously infected patients and their infected or uninfected household members provided baseline health and sociodemographic information, dried-blood samples, and respiratory specimens every day for 10 days. They also completed a follow-up symptom survey 90 days later. Most had experienced mild infections. Of the 1,967 participants, 74.3% were from COVID-19 households, 26.6% were from flu households,42.6% were male, and 64.7% were adults. Most participants had some COVID-19 immunity (vaccine only, 45.9%; previous infection only, 11.3%; hybrid, 28.3%), and 57.8% had received that season's flu vaccine. A total of 13.6% of participants reported at least one symptom at 90 days. Among those in COVID-19 households, 15.6% of COVID-positive participants and 13.9% of COVID-negative participants reported symptoms at 90 days, compared with 8.8% of flu patients and 10.0% of flu-negative participants. The risk of lingering symptoms didn't differ by infection status for COVID-19 (COVID-positive, 15.6%; COVID-negative, 13.9%; odds ratio [OR], 1.14) or flu (flu-positive, 8.8%; flu-negative, 10.0%; OR, 0.87). But among participants who had a documented infection, those who had COVID-19 were at nearly twice the risk for continuing symptoms compared with those with flu (OR, 1.92). The findings suggest that COVID-19 households have a significantly higher rate of ongoing symptoms than those with flu (OR, 1.78), the study authors said. COVID-19 survivors who had chronic conditions (adjusted OR [aOR], 2.65) and COVID symptoms during infection (aOR, 2.92) were more likely to have symptoms at 90 days, whereas hybrid immunity was protective (aOR, 0.44). The most common COVID-19 symptoms in adults who at least one symptom at 90 days were fatigue, sleep problems, and congestion.
Vaccinated kids at 57% to 73% lower risk of long COVID, CDC study suggests - mRNA vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 was tied to a 57% and 73% lower risk of having at least one or two long-COVID symptoms, respectively, in US children ages 5 to 17 years, according to a case-control study led by researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).The four-site study involved 622 children who were eligible for COVID-19 vaccination when they were infected with the Omicron variant and who completed a post-COVID condition (PCC) survey at least 60 days later. They were enrolled from the Pediatric Research Observing Trends and Exposures in COVID-19 Timelines (PROTECT) study, a longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 surveillance cohort convened in July 2021. Participants were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection each week from December 2022 to May 2023, and they or their guardians completed surveys about ongoing symptoms at least 1 month post-infection.The study included 28 case-participants (those reporting PCC symptoms; 5%) and 594 controls (95%). The median age was about 10 years, roughly half were girls, and 57% of case-participants and 77% of controls had received at least two COVID-19 vaccine doses, 99% of them with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine."Although children typically experience mild symptoms from SARS-CoV-2 infection, PCC can develop following mild or severe COVID-19 illness, and PCC symptoms can be prolonged, debilitating, and contribute to school absenteeism," the researchers noted. The findings were published yesterday in JAMA Network Open.
During pandemic, ivermectin use rose 10-fold, hydroxychloroquine use doubled, study reveals -- US outpatient prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin, two unproven treatments touted as COVID-19 treatments during the pandemic, doubled and increased by 10-fold, respectively, from January 30, 2020, to June 30, 2023, according to a new study in Health Affairs.The 3 million prescriptions for the drugs resulted in $272 million estimated spending, and older adults were more likely to take these treatments, the study authors said."Our findings underscore the urgent need for policy reforms to combat misinformation and mistrust in scientific institutions," said John Mafi, MD, MPH, the senior study author, in a press release from the University of California Los Angeles. "Eliminating undue industry influence in government, enhancing transparency around scientific uncertainty, and earmarking public funding for clinical trials of new drugs are good places to start."Mafi and his colleagues looked at insurance claims listed in the Milliman MedInsight Emerging Experience Research Database for 8.1 million insured patients from across the country to assess the use and spending for the two medications during the first 3 years of the pandemic.During the study period, this cohort used 1,369,281 total prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin in outpatient settings, the authors said. Of these, 90,141 were in excess of 2019 prescribing rates and were categorized as COVID-19–associated."When this number is extrapolated to the US population of insured adults, an estimated 3,037,751 COVID-19-associated prescriptions for hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin totaling an estimated $271,559,207 in spending were provided in US outpatient settings throughout the public health emergency," the authors wrote. Patients ages 65 and older represented 25% of adults included in the study but were responsible for 68% of COVID-19-associated hydroxychloroquine use and 59% of COVID-19-associated ivermectin use.Hydroxychloroquine use peaked in March 2020 to 133% of pre-pandemic rates, likely after President Donald Trump touted the drug as a cure for the virus. Before COVID, the drug was traditionally used as an anti-malarial.Prescriptions for ivermectin peaked in August 2021, 10 times higher than pre-pandemic rates. Ivermectin is also an anti-parasite treatment. Hydroxychloroquine use was evenly distributed across the United States, but outpatient use of ivermectin was significantly higher in southern states (366% of expected rates).
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. bars public comment in rulemaking process at DHS --Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Friday released a policy prohibiting public comments during his department’s rulemaking process, ending more than 50 years of the public’s involvement in crafting his department’s rules. In the policy statement placed in the Federal Register, Kennedy’s office appeared to argue that rescinding the policy goes back to the original intent of the Administrative Procedure Act (APA). Although the APA exempts the requirement for public comment on matters “relating to agency management or personnel or to public property, loans, grants, benefits, or contracts,” there has been a waiver, referred to as the Richardson waiver, on this exemption since 1971, allowing for interested parties to take part in the rulemaking process. “The policy waiving the statutory exemption for rules relating to public property, loans, grants, benefits, or contracts is contrary to the clear text of the APA and imposes on the Department obligations beyond the maximum procedural requirements specified in the APA,” according to the policy statement from Kennedy’s office. “Effective immediately, the Richardson Waiver is rescinded and is no longer the policy of the Department,” it added. The move comes shortly after the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) postponed a key meeting held by the vaccine committee for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, saying at the time that it was delayed to “accommodate public comment in advance of the meeting.” After assuming office, Kennedy had vowed to usher in “radical transparency” at the HHS..
New data: Early fears that COVID raises risk of sudden cardiac events in athletes unfounded - Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, reports raised concerns that young infected or vaccinated athletes may be at high risk for sudden cardiac events, but research published this week inJAMA Network Open finds no evidence that they are. Researchers in Brazil and the United States analyzed data from the National Center for Catastrophic Sports Injury Research at the University of North Carolina on rates of sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (January 2017 to December 2022). The study included competitive athletes at the youth, middle school, high school, club, college, and professional level who had an SCA or SCD during exercise, rest, or sleep. The team defined SCA as an unexpected cardiac collapse in which cardiopulmonary resuscitation and/or defibrillation was given to an athlete who survived and SCD as sudden unexpected death due to a cardiac cause or a structurally normal heart with no other explanation for death and a history consistent with cardiac-related death. An expert panel determined the cause of SCD using patient health records and previously published criteria. "Many media and social media reports insinuated that COVID-19 illness or mRNA vaccines caused an increase in SCA/SCD in athletes," the researchers wrote.A total of 387 athletes experienced SCA or SCD. The average age was 16.5 years, and 86.3% were male. The number of SCA/SCD events before and during the pandemic wasn't significantly different (203 vs 184), and 50.9% of affected athletes survived the event.The percentage of SCDs was similar before and during the pandemic (106 of 203 cases [52.2%] vs 84 of 184 cases [45.7%]). The expert panel determined a cause in 139 of 190 SCD cases (73.2%) using autopsy data or coroner reports, with myocarditis causing SCD in three athletes before and four during the pandemic. Myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle."This cohort study found no increase in SCA/SCD in young competitive athletes in the US during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that reports asserting otherwise were overestimating the cardiovascular risk of COVID-19 infection, vaccination, and myocarditis," the study authors wrote. "Many athlete cases shown in social media video montages occurred before the pandemic yet claimed COVID-19 infection or vaccination raised the risk of SCA/SCD."They noted that previous studies also found no link between out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and COVID-19 vaccination in young people, or that COVID-19 vaccination increases the risk of SCA/SCD in athletes.
COVID-19 in Context: A Retrospective View - COVID-19 (agent of disease: SARS-CoV-2) did not appear ex nihilo in late 2019. It was presaged by the outbreak of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2002 and by MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) ten years later. SARS (SARS-CoV) spread from Guangdong to Singapore and Toronto by early 2003 but was contained by rapid and effective public health measures. Nevertheless, 774 patients in a population of 8,098 reported cases died (9.6%). The death rate for MERS (MERS-CoV), which is not as transmissible as SARS, was ~34% in a population of about 2,600. The death rate for COVID-19 is much lower than for either SARS or MERS, but the current pandemic haskilled more than 20 million people worldwide. All three diseases are caused by coronaviruses, which have been recognized as viral pathogens in vertebratessince 1949 and probably earlier. What follows is an attempt to put COVID-19 in context based on a focused consideration of a coronavirus literature that has become quite large (and intractable) in the past five years. My priors are that the only way to address a scientific problem correctly is to go back to the beginnings so that the foundation of current research is as strong as possible. In my experience in biomedical science, this is the only way to make significant discoveries, small or large. Otherwise, the scientist is only placing bricks on a pile with little thought for how they fit together. [1] This essai is only that, and attempt, and I expect more complete coverage to emerge in the next few years from several perspectives, scientific and political.We begin with the response to SARS from the perspective of an expert on coronavirus disease in poultry. The first coronavirus disease in vertebrates is caused by what is now known as Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV): Severe acute respiratory syndrome vaccine development: experiences of vaccination against avian infectious bronchitis coronavirus (D. Cavanagh, 2003; Institute of Animal Health, currently the Pirbright Institute). Until SARS, human coronaviruses caused only mild upper respiratory tract infections. This paper is representative of several published after the SARS outbreak that addressed how previous experience with the IBV should be useful in dealing with serious coronavirus disease in humans. This review is especially relevant because it concentrates on vaccines against coronavirus disease, and the primary response to COVID-19 has been vaccination.
As measles cases near 100, Texas health officials probe exposures at 2 universities - In escalating developments in a measles outbreak centered in west Texas, the state's health department today said multiple health departments in the central and west-central parts of the state are investigating exposures, including at two universities.The outbreak in Texas, combined with cases in a neighboring New Mexico county, have boosted the outbreak to 99 cases, with more suspected. On February 21, the Texas Department of State Health Services (TDSHS) reported 32 more measles cases in the South Plains region, boosting the state's total to 90 cases. Most are in Gaines County, where the outbreak is centered in the Mennonite community.The latest update included the first confirmation from Ector and Yoakum counties, pushing the number of affected counties to seven. The TDSHS said 16 patients have been hospitalized. Five patients were vaccinated against measles, and the others were unvaccinated or have unknown vaccination status.The following day, the Dallam-Hartley Counties Hospital District in Texas said a small number of measles cases have been confirmed within the community. In a statement, Melissa Bundy, the district's chief executive officer, said, "While this news is concerning, it is important to note that our counties have a very high vaccination rate and that the MMR [measles, mumps, and rubella] vaccine is 97% effective in preventing the disease with two doses given, and 93% effective with one dose given."Meanwhile, the New Mexico Department of Health (NMDH) confirmed six more measles cases in Lea County, which borders Gaines County, raising the total to nine. Officials have said a link to the outbreak in Texas is suspected but hasn't been confirmed. Four of the Lea County cases are in children ages 5 to 17 years old, and five are in adults. "Because measles is so contagious, additional cases are likely to occur in Lea County and the surrounding communities," the NMDH said. In its update today, the TDSHS said a person from the outbreak area who was later diagnosed as having measles visited locations in San Marcos and San Antonio the weekend of February 14 to February 16 while he or she was contagious.San Antonio health officials said the patient is from Gaines County. The exposure sites include two universities, Texas State University in San Marcos and University of Texas at San Antonio. The patient visited tourist attractions near the River Walk area of San Antonio, a local restaurant, and a large travel plaza in New Braunfels.The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a February 21 weekly update that it has received reports of 93 cases so far this year from eight jurisdictions. The agency noted that 23 patients were hospitalized for isolation or management of measles complications. The vast majority of cases (86) are part of three outbreaks.Of the patients, 95% were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status. Roughly half are school-age children or teens. Twenty-eight of the cases (30%) are in kids younger than 5 years old.
Texas reports first death in measles outbreak -The Texas Department of State Health Services (TDSHS)announced today the first fatality in a growing measles outbreak in the western part of the state, in an unvaccinated, school-age child. The patient was hospitalized in Lubbock. So far, the case count in Texas remains at 124, with most cases identified in children. Eighteen patients have been hospitalized.. “Measles is a highly contagious respiratory illness, which can cause life-threatening illness to anyone who is not protected against the virus. During a measles outbreak, about one in five people who get sick will need hospital care and one in 20 will develop pneumonia,” the TDSHS said. “Rarely, measles can lead to swelling of the brain and death.” Measles was eliminated from the United States 25 years ago, but dropping vaccination rates due to anti-vaccine advocacy groups erroneously linking the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine to autism, has left some communities vulnerable to outbreaks. The outbreaks in rural counties of West Texas are largely occurring among unvaccinated or under-vaccinated members of a Mennonite community, a TDSHS spokesperson told the Associated Press. TDSDH said the current outbreak is the largest in the state in 30 years. In 2019, there were 1,274 measles cases reported in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Numbers dropped during the first 3 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, but rose last year to 285 cases. During the 2019-2020 school year, 95.2% of eligible kindergarten students in the US were vaccinated against measles, according to the CDC. That percentage has dropped to 92.7% in the 2023–2024 school year, leaving approximately 280,000 kindergartners at risk during the 2023–2024 school year.Measles is highly contagious. About 90% of unvaccinated people will contract the virus if exposed. Currently the CDC recommends children receive one dose of MMR vaccine at 12 to 15 months of age and another at 4 to 6 years. Two doses will prevent 97% of measles cases.
Kennedy minimizes measles outbreak in wake of Texas death - Yesterday during President Donald Trump's first cabinet meeting, Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. mistakenly said two people died in a Texas measles outbreak, but dismissed the news, saying measles outbreaks happen every year in the United States.In other measles news, Kentucky has reported a case in an adult who had recently traveled internationally. During the cabinet meeting, Kennedy said, "There have been four measles outbreaks this year. In this country last year there were 16. So, it's not unusual. We have measles outbreaks every year." He did not provide context on the size of the outbreaks. The current outbreak in rural West Texas has at least 124 cases, almost all in unvaccinated children, many of whom are connected to a Mennonite community. The entire country for all of 2024 saw 285 confirmed cases, but we're not even one sixth of the way into 2025. Kennedy also said two people have died, but Texas officials yesterday confirmed only one death, in an unvaccinated child hospitalized in Lubbock. The last pediatric measles death in the United States before this was in 2003. An adult woman also died from measles in 2015. The HHS Secretary said kids were being hospitalized for quarantine purposes during the Texas outbreak. But yesterday hospital officials from Covenant Children's Hospital in Lubbock clarified that 20 kids are hospitalized for issues such as breathing problems, and not quarantine. Yesterday the Kentucky Department for Public Health (KDPH) and Franklin County Health Department announced a confirmed case of measles identified in an adult Kentucky resident. It said citizens may have been exposed to the person at a Planet Fitness gym in Frankfort in mid-February."The resident attended a fitness center in Frankfort, Kentucky, while infectious," the KDPH said in a statement. The patient had recently traveled internationally to an area with ongoing measles transmission, the KDPH said.
Texas measles outbreak rises to 146 cases - The measles outbreak in Texas that began in late January has grown to 146 cases, Texas health officials reported today in an update.The outbreak has grown by 22 cases since the last update on February 25. The Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) said 20 of the patients have been hospitalized. One fatality, in an unvaccinated school-age child, was announced earlier this week. "Due to the highly contagious nature of this disease, additional cases are likely to occur in the outbreak area and the surrounding communities," the department said. "DSHS is working with local health departments to investigate the outbreak." Of the 146 confirmed cases, 116 are in children aged 17 and under, and 79 are unvaccinated. Sixty-two case-patients have unknown vaccination status. The outbreak is centered in Gaines County in western Texas, where 98 of the cases have been reported. According to the Texas Tribune, the county has one of the highest rates of school-aged children in Texas who have opted out of at least one vaccine. Measles was eliminated from the United States 25 years ago, but declining vaccination rates in recent years have left some communities vulnerable to outbreaks of the highly infectious virus, which can cause life-threatening illness in those who are not protected. In a paper published in October 2024, researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that two-dose national MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) vaccine coverage among US kindergartners fell to 92.7% in 2023-24. Measles elimination requires vaccination coverage remaining above 95%. Meanwhile, officials at a charter school in San Antonio told Texas Public Radio that they have confirmed a rubella case at their school. And a measles outbreak in neighboring New Mexico has risen to 9 cases, according to an update today from the New Mexico Department of Health (NMDOH). All 9 cases are in Lea County, which borders Gaines County.In its first statement on the outbreak, released yesterday, the CDC said it continues to be in close communication with Texas health authorities and that the Department of Health and Human Services is providing technical assistance, laboratory support, vaccines, and therapeutic medication to DSHS and NMDOH. "Vaccination remains the best defense against measles infection," the CDC said.The statement also noted that measles outbreaks are occurring globally, particularly in Asia, and that there is "increased likelihood" of cases among unvaccinated travelers returning to the United States. Yesterday, officials with Seattle & King County in Washington state said they had been notified of a confirmed measles case in a King County infant who may have been exposed during international travel. And officials in New Jersey have confirmed two additional measles cases linked to an unvaccinated person with measles who had recently traveled internationally, according to NJ.com. A total of 285 measles cases were reported from 33 US jurisdictions in 2024, according to the CDC, with 16 outbreaks. The CDC defines an outbreak as three or more cases.
FDA cancels advisory committee meeting on flu vaccine strain selection - An upcoming meeting of a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) vaccine advisory board to select virus strains for next season's flu shot has been canceled. The March 13 meeting of the FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) was scheduled to make recommendations for the flu strains that will be included in the 2025-26 flu shot or nasal spray for the Northern Hemisphere. VRPBAC typically meets in March to make those recommendations, which are based on what flu strains are expected to be circulating in the fall and winter. The FDA uses the recommendations to direct vaccine manufacturers on the composition of the shots, which take roughly 6 months to produce. VRBPAC members were alerted that the meeting was canceled in an email from the FDA that did not include an explanation, according to the Washington Post. The cancelation is raising concerns that the timing and availability of next season's flu shot could be affected. "Cancelling this meeting means vaccine makers may not have the vital information and time they need to produce and distribute targeted vaccines before the next flu season," Infectious Diseases Society of America President Tina Tan, MD, said in a statement. "If the FDA meeting is not immediately rescheduled, many lives that could be saved by vaccination will be lost." The FDA confirmed the cancelation in an email to CIDRAP News but said it won't have an impact on the availability of next season's vaccine. "A planned March 13 meeting of the FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee on the influenza vaccine strains for the 2025-2026 influenza season in the northern hemisphere has been cancelled," the agency said. "The FDA will make public its recommendations to manufacturers in time for updated vaccines to be available for the 2025-2026 influenza season." The VRBPAC meeting is the second meeting of a vaccine-related federal advisory group to be canceled or postponed in the past week by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Last week, a meeting of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, scheduled for February 26 through 28, was postponed, with no word on when it will be rescheduled. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also issued a 90-day stop-work order on a multimillion-dollar HHS contract with a company that's developing an oral COVID vaccine, according to Fox News. Vaxart was set to begin a clinical trial next week. The moves are adding to fears that Kennedy, a longtime vaccine critic, could undermine US vaccine policies. The cancelation of the VRBPAC meeting also comes amid one of the worst flu seasons in recent memory. In its most recent FluView report, the CDC estimated that 430,000 Americans have been admitted to the hospital and 19,000 have died from flu this season. The CDC has also confirmed 86 flu-related deaths in children. It's the first flu season classified as "high severity" by the CDC since 2017-18. "This decision—and other federal efforts to undermine well-established science about vaccine safety—puts everyone at risk, especially when we are currently experiencing the worst U.S. flu season in more than a decade," said Tan.
WHO advisers swap out H3N2 strains for next Northern Hemisphere flu vaccines --- The World Health Organization (WHO) today announced its advisory committee’s recommendations on strains to include for the Northern Hemisphere’s 2025-26 flu season, which swap out the H3N2 components but keep the current 2009 H1N1 and influenza B strains the same.The three strains recommended for the trivalent vaccine are also the same as those recommended for the Southern Hemisphere’s 2025 season vaccine, which the group weighed in on at its meetings in September 2024. Today’s recommendations have separate H3N2 recommendations for egg-based and cell-based flu vaccines. Though the WHO recommends trivalent vaccines, some companies include a second influenza B strain targeting both lineages. The Yamagata lineage hasn’t circulated since 2020, and the recommendation for that strain remains the same as for previous seasons. At a WHO briefing today, Ian Barr, PhD, deputy director of the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza at the Doherty Institute at the University of Melbourne, said the H3N2 pick is always a challenge, because it changes more quickly than the other strains. “It’s always the bane of our existence.” He added that this season’s H3N2 vaccine strain for the Northern Hemisphere didn’t turn out to be a perfect match but has been a reasonable one. The severe flu season under way in the United States has come with a higher proportion of H3N2 activity than in other regions of the world such as Europe and China, where H1N1 has been predominant, Barr said. South America has seen a mix of H1N1 and influenza B, while Australia—like the United States—is experiencing a mix of H3N2 and H1N1. Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, WHO’s director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness and prevention, said officials from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) participated actively in this week’s strain selection meeting and that the United States has been sharing genetic sequences from both people and animals. Country regulatory authorities and flu vaccine manufacturers take the WHO recommendations into account when starting the 6-month process for making the next season’s flu vaccines.The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has canceled a March 13 Food and Drug Administration (FDA) vaccine advisory meeting to weigh in on the flu vaccine strain picks. However, HHS officials said the FDA would make its recommendations in time for manufacturers to update the vaccines for the next flu season. In its twice-yearly flu vaccine strain consultations, the WHO advisers also comb through the latest zoonotic flu strains to see if any new candidate vaccine viruses are needed for pandemic preparedness. Richard Webby, PhD, said the group recommended two new avian flu strains, one targeting an H5N1 clade 2.3.2.1a virus identified in Australia in a child who had returned from a trip to India. In its zoonotic flu candidate virus report, the group said the clade 2.3.2.1a viruses were detected in poultry in Bangladesh and in wild birds and poultry in India, where it also turned up in captive tigers, a captive leopard, and domestic cats. “The circulation of clade 2.3.2.1a viruses in these countries has continued despite the introduction of clade 2.3.4.4b viruses,” the group wrote.Webby said the second newly recommended candidate strain targets an H5N6 clade 2.3.4.4h virus once dominant in Southeast Asia that has reemerged in poultry in a few provinces in southeastern China. Two human H5N6 illnesses involving clade 2.3.4.4h were reported in 2024.
US flu season shows signs of peak - Flu activity in the United States has declined for the second week and a row, suggesting levels have peaked, though hospitalizations and other markers remain high and deaths in kids are nearing 100, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its latest weekly update. Test positivity at clinical labs is trending downward but is still high, at 24.5%. Outpatient visits for flulike illness also declined but, at 5.8%, are still well above the national baseline for the 13th straight week. States still in the very high range include Michigan, Ohio, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine.The cumulative hospitalization rate is at its highest level since the 2010-11 flu season. The CDC estimates that 21,000 people have died from flu this season, and the pace of flu deaths in the latest reporting week outpaced those for COVID-19.Twelve more pediatric flu deaths were reported, putting the season's total at 98. All were linked to influenza A. Of 11 subtyped strains, 8 were the 2009 H1N1 virus, 2 were H3N2, and 1 involved a coinfection with both strains. For COVID, emergency department (ED) visits are low with a continuing decline, and test positivity remains stable, at 4.3%, the CDC said. Wastewater levels are at the moderate range, and though detections are declining for all regions, they are highest in the Midwest, followed by the South.In its latest variant tracking update, the CDC said that, over the past 2 weeks the LP.8.1 Omicron subvariant, at 42% of detections, has now edged above the XEC subvariant, which now makes up 31% of detections. LP.8.1 is a descendant of KP.1.1.3, which is part of the JN.1 lineage.
CDC: 13% of kids who died from flu this year had brain damage - Today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say that 13% of children who have died from seasonal flu this season had influenza-associated encephalopathy or encephalitis (IAE), a severe neurologic complication. Included in these cases are four patients who had acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE), the most severe form of IAE, which can lead to varying degrees of brain dysfunction, inflammation, and other neurologic problems. The data come from the Influenza-Associated Pediatric Mortality Surveillance System, which has tracked kids' flu deaths since 2004. Encephalitis is swelling of the brain, while encephalopathy is a more general term for brain dysfunction that is not primarily an inflammatory condition. The authors said the CDC began receiving reports of ANE in children who died from flu in January, and the agency contacted state health departments to ascertain whether any pediatric flu-related deaths with IAE also involved a diagnosis of ANE. As of February 8, the most recent date used in the study, 68 US children had been confirmed to have died from seasonal influenza. Among them, 9 had IAE (13%). (As of the CDC's latest FluView report on February 21, US pediatric flu deaths had risen to 86.) The authors said that, of the 9 pediatric deaths this season with IAE, 4 patients had fatal ANE. All 4 ANE deaths involved children under the age of 5 years, and all had laboratory-confirmed influenza A (H1N1). Two of the 4 children had been vaccinated against flu, 2 received the antiviral drug oseltamivir (Tamiflu), and all required mechanical ventilation. The other 7 children who died did not receive the 2024-25 flu vaccine. Fifty-four percent of patients with fatal IAE had no underlying medical conditions, and only 20% had received flu vaccination 2 or more weeks before illness onset. The authors compared IAE and ANE records among pediatric influenza deaths seen in the past 15 years. From the 2010-11 to 2024-25 flu seasons, officials reported 1,840 US pediatric flu-associated deaths, of which 166 (9%) involved IAE, ranging from 0% (2020-21 season) to 14% (2011-12 season). Of the 166 fatal pediatric flu-related patients with IAE, the median age was 6 years, 52% were female, and 40% were non-Hispanic White. In total 119 patients (72%) had influenza A, and 46 (28%) had influenza B virus infection. The vast majority of IAE patients (93%) required mechanical ventilation. Other documented acute complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (57; 34%), pneumonia (54; 33%), and sepsis (47; 28%). All but 11 patients died while hospitalized. "Health care providers should consider IAE in children with febrile illness and clinically compatible neurologic signs or symptoms, including but not limited to seizures, altered mental status, delirium, decreased level of consciousness, lethargy, hallucinations, or personality changes lasting >24 hours."
Study finds increase in macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae in children - A study conducted among hospitalized children in Ohio shows that rates of macrolide-resistant Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MRMp) are low but have been rising in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers reported last week in Emerging Infectious Diseases. For the study, researchers with Nationwide Children's Hospital (NCH) in Columbus, Ohio, and The Ohio State University analyzed patient data and laboratory findings to determine the rate of MRMp infections in children in Ohio from September 2023 through September 2024. M pneumoniae is a major cause of community-acquired respiratory infection in children, but during the pandemic the hospital saw almost no M pneumoniae activity in pediatric patients. That was followed by an uptick in cases in September 2023 and a sharp increase last summer."Unlike other areas where M. pneumoniae has reemerged with case numbers similar to or slightly higher than prepandemic times, the ongoing M. pneumoniae surge in our patient population is the largest we have seen in the past 10 years, >2,000 cases in 4 months (June 2024–September 2024), compared with 1,350 total cases during January 2012–January 2019," the study authors wrote.During the study period, tests performed by the NCH microbiology lab on 2,469 patients identified 2,616 (14.5%) of 18,035 M pneumoniae–positive samples. Positivity rates remained stable from September 2023 through May 2024, then rose sharply in June 2024. The positivity rate among children aged 6 to 10 years was 26.6%, compared with 2.1% in children aged 2 years and younger. Among the patients, 304 (12.3%) were hospitalized and 53 (2.1%) required intensive care unit admission.Sequencing of 995 M pneumoniae–positive samples detected mutations associated with MRMp in 24 samples (2.4%). The percentage of resistance detected was different every month, with the highest rate (4.4%) detected in September 2024."Although MRMp remains low, MRMp is trending upward, underscoring the need for vigilant surveillance to provide accurate information for management of children with M. pneumoniae infection and maintain awareness of antimicrobial resistance," the authors wrote.
Incidence of multidrug-resistant bacteria rising in Ontario hospitals - A survey of hospitals in Ontario reveals that the incidence of carbapenemase-producing organisms (CPOs) doubled from 2022 to 2023, according to a report published last week by Public Health Ontario. The survey, which was distributed to all public hospitals and microbiology labs in the province, found that 1,229 patients were either infected or colonized with a CPO in 2023, up from 560 patients in 2022. The overall rate of new patients with CPOs per 10,000 patients doubled, from 5.1 to 10.2. Of these new CPO patients, 98.2% were infected or colonized with Enterobacteriaceae organisms. The most commonly reported carbapenemase was New Delhi Metallo-beta-lactamase (55.2%), followed by Oxacillinase (26.0%) andKlebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (13.7%). Data from labs also showed increasing resistance to third-generation cephalosporins among Escherichia coli(from 9.6% in 2017 to 12.8% in 2023) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (4.7% to 9.2%) isolates, as well as rising resistance to ciprofloxacin among E coli isolates. Resistance to ciprofloxacin among E coli isolates climbed to 22.3% in 2023, the highest resistance levels reported to date.Other key findings include a 17.5% decrease in the number of new patients with methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolated from any specimen site compared with 2022 and a decline in theClostridioides difficile positivity rate (from 12.1% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2023). The incidence of vancomycin-resistant enterococci remained stable, and Candida auris incidence remained rare, with only three cases reported in 2023.
Researchers find colonization and spread of C. auris on the skin of nursing home residents - - A team of microbiologists, geneticists and internal medicine skin disease specialists affiliated with several institutions in the U.S. has found that antibiotic-resistant pathogens are borne on the skin of nursing home residents. In their study published in the journalNature, the group collected skin swabs from multiple patients at nursing homes in the Chicago metropolitan area.Teresa O'Meara, with the University of Michigan Medical School, has published a News & Views piece in the same journal issue outlining the work done by the team on this effort and its possible implications regarding microbes developing resistance to new therapies.Over the past several years, medical researchers have become alarmed as many antibiotic agents used to treat infections in people have stopped working as the microbes develop resistance. In this new effort, the researchers wondered about the possibility of other infectious microbes developing resistance due to their persistence on human skin.They began their study by noting that Candida auris is not a bacterium, but a fungal species known to be resistant to therapies and to cause disease. Prior research has shown that it can spread to the whole body, making it potentially deadly.C. auris is also known to spread in hospitals and other health care facilities. The team wondered if it might be prevalent in nursing homes, as well. To find out, they collected samples from multiple body sites of 42 nursing home residents living in several facilities in the Chicago area and conducted a genetic analysis of the microbes they found. They found that C. auris had colonized the skin of all the people tested, along with at least one other ESKAPE pathogen—a class of common infectious microbes that live on the skin and are considered to be harmful. They also note that because the pathogens were found over a several-month period, they likely represent either persistent or repeated colonization.They suggest that similarities in the genes of the pathogens colonizing many of the residents could help with future research efforts to better understand how microbes develop resistance and how to stop it from happening.
Long-simmering deadly Listeria outbreak tied to supplement shakes -A multistate Listeria monocytogenes outbreak that has been sickening people since 2018, 12 of them fatally, has now been tied to frozen supplement shakes consumed mainly at long-term care facilities, federal health officials said yesterday.In a food safety alert, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said 38 cases from 21 states have been reported. All but 1 patient was hospitalized.Listeria infections can be severe or fatal, especially in pregnant women, people ages 65 and older, and those with weakened immune systems. Though illnesses have been reported since 2018 and earlier epidemiologic investigations suggested that food served at the institutions was a likely source, there wasn't enough evidence to pinpoint a specific food source.Following investigations in 2018, 2021, and 2023, the CDC reopened the investigation in October 2024 after six new infections were reported. In background information on the outbreak, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said 20 of the cases were reported in 2024 and 2025 and that the outbreak and the investigations are ongoing.State and local health officials who interviewed sick patients found that 34 were in nursing homes or hospitals before they became ill and that 8 were on soft diets. A review of facility records showed that the supplement shakes were available to the patients. Patient ages range from 43 to 101 years old, with a median age of 78. People who died from their infections were from California, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New York, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington.In November 2024, the FDA said it learned that many of the sick people lived in nursing homes. Its trace-back investigation found that found that all of the nursing homes that provided food invoices since 2024 had received frozen supplement shakes from Lyons ReadyCare or Sysco Imperial brand.FDA investigators collected environmental samples at the Prairie Farms Dairy facility that made the shakes, which were positive for the outbreak strain. Whole-genome sequencing found that bacteria from the environmental samples were closely related to isolates from sick patients.On February 22, Lyons Magnus, a distributor based in Fresno, California, recalled 4-ounce servings of several flavors of Lyons ReadyCare and Sysco Imperial Frozen supplemental shakes.In the company's voluntary recall notice, it said the products were made at the Prairie Farms Dairy facility in Fort Wayne, Indiana. The products were distributed throughout the United States but were not available for retail purchase.
WHO extends mpox emergency as more transmissible clade 1a variant identified in DR Congo -- Following a meeting of its mpox emergency committee yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) todayaccepted the experts' recommendation that the situation still warrants a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) under the International Health Regulations. The WHO first declared the mpox PHEIC in August 2024 amid a surge in Africa, some of which involved the spread of the novel clade 1b virus. The complex outbreaks in Africa mainly involve the spread of clade 1a and 1b viruses, with some appearance of the clade 2 virus that has spread. WHO emergency committees typically meet every 3 months or more often as needed, depending on developments. The mpox group last met in November 2024. Today's extension came with tweaks to its temporary recommendations for affected countries, which include those reporting sporadic travel-related cases. Weighing in on the WHO’s extension today, an official from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) said several African nations continue to report a rise in cases, with outbreaks expanding to new countries in the region. Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, MPH, who leads Africa CDC's mpox incident management team, said growing armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in one of the main mpox hot spots, increasing the risk of spread to other provinces and countries. He also noted the emergence of new variants, especially a clade 1a variant detected in the DRC that carries the APOBEC3 mutation, which enhances its transmissibility. Clade 1a is the older clade that has been linked to spillovers in animals and some limited human-to-human transmission in endemic areas. Clade 1a is thought to be more deadly and capable of causing more severe disease than are clade 1b or clade 2. Ngongo said the new clade 1a variant raises significant public health concerns, due to the higher transmissibility of an mpox strain with higher morbidity. He noted that the novel clade 1b strain also carries the APOBEC3 mutation, a factor in what makes it more transmissible. In other updates, Ngongo said 14 of 22 affected African countries are still in the active outbreak stage, including South Africa, which reported three new cases after more than 90 days without any. Growing tensions in the eastern part of the DRC pose a risk of further spread and are complicated by a US government freeze on public health funding, which has disrupted the transportation of samples in the DRC and surveillance in the DRC and Uganda. Overall, cases in Africa have declined over the past 5 weeks, but Ngongo said the trend is likely affected by reporting delays and declines in testing coverage in the DRC. Over the past week, 12 countries reported nearly 2,000 cases, which included 42 deaths. Ngongo said South Sudan, one of most recently affected countries, reported that a recent imported case involved clade 1a, and that both 1a and 1b clades are circulating in the Republic of Congo, where cases are on the rise. In Uganda, another hot spot, cases continue to rise and are overwhelming some treatment centers, with the country now opting for home-based care for patients who have less severe cases.
Alarm grows as “mystery illness” in Congo has now killed 60 people and infected over 1,000 - On Thursday, the World Health Organization (WHO) released their latest report on the worsening outbreak of unknown disease in two separate locations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), noting that 1,096 people have now officially been infected and 60 have died.The first outbreak occurred in a remote Northwest village of Bikoro in the Bolomba health zone on January 21, 2025, after three children ate a bat and died shortly afterwards, prompting concerns given that bats are well-known to harbor various pathogens capable of causing spillover events. Samples from those affected were sent to Kinshasa, ruling out both Ebola and Marburg, deadly viral hemorrhagic pathogens. The next outbreak was first reported on February 9 in Bomate village in the Basankusu health zone, located about 186 kilometers (115 miles) to the Northeast of Bikoro. By February 13, the WHO confirmed at least 419 cases with 45 deaths, placing the initial case fatality rate at over 10 percent. WHO stated that “[the] outbreaks, which have seen cases rise rapidly within days, pose a significant public health threat. The exact cause remains unknown.” In the most recent in-depth report, covering data up until February 23, the WHO estimates that the case fatality rate now stands at roughly 5.5 percent.In addition to the unidentified pathogen causing the outbreak, health authorities are deeply concerned about the short interval between the onset of symptoms (fever, vomiting and internal bleeding) and ensuing death 48 hours later. Delays in reporting relate to near non-existent infrastructure conditions and poorly resourced facilities. The WHO Bulletin underscores the concerns raised by these developments, noting:Key challenges include the rapid progression of the disease, with nearly half of the deaths occurring within 48 hours of symptom onset in one of the affected health zones, and an exceptionally high case fatality rate in another. Urgent action is needed to accelerate laboratory investigations, improve case management and isolation capacities, and strengthen surveillance and risk communication. The remote location and weak healthcare infrastructure increase the risk of further spread, requiring immediate high-level intervention to contain the outbreak.WHO spokesperson Margaret Harris provided important details in a recent interview with DW News, stating:[On] February 13, health authorities in the Democratic Republic of Congo reported clusters [of infections] in two different villages. Even though both villages are in Équateur province which are both in northwest of Congo, the remoteness and poor infrastructure means they are actually very separated, and it could be completely different things.Harris added that although the identity of the pathogen remains to be determined, it is most likely something already known rather than being a novel virus. Furthermore, she confirmed that rapid diagnostics of cases in Bomonte were positive for malaria. She speculated that it could be a combination of winter viruses on top of malaria, which gives a mixed picture and may predispose patients to more serious and rapidly fatal infections, especially among people who are malnourished and living in squalid conditions. She added, “At the moment we have a range of differential diagnoses, but the most important thing is to do the full epidemiological investigation and do the testing.”Although the known hemorrhagic pathogens have seemed to be ruled out, malaria remains a likely contributor as was the case of the outbreak in Kwango Province that erupted in October 2024, several hundred miles south of the current outbreak in the DRC. In that outbreak in the Panzi health zone, WHO estimated there were 406 cases between October 24 and December 5, with a death toll ranging from 67 to 143 individuals. As health authorities noted at the time, lack of access to healthcare, malnutrition, and poor living conditions contributed greatly to the high case fatality rate in that region. Malaria, a mosquito-borne illness, can lead to severe disease and death in a matter of hours to just a few days. Initial symptoms can include high fevers and chills, vomiting, jaundice, and low blood pressure and high heart rates. Major complications can lead to brain swelling, fluid build-up in the lungs, kidney failure, severe anemia and bleeding complications.
Probe of febrile illness clusters in DR Congo points to malaria, other factors - In ongoing unexplained febrile illness clusters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the number of illnesses continues to grow, and though tests continue to rule out Ebola and Marburg viruses, many patients have tested positive for malaria, global health officials said today.Two clusters have been reported in Equateur Province in the northwest, an area that has experienced Ebola outbreaks before. The first was reported in January in Bolomba health zone, where 12 cases and 8 deaths have been recorded. The event was followed by a much bigger outbreak in Basankusu health zone, where 943 cases, 52 of them fatal, have been reported, according to a weekly update from the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office.At an Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) briefing today, Ngashi Ngongo, MD, PhD, MPH, who leads Africa CDC's mpox incident management team, said some of the main symptoms are fever, chills, headache, neck pain, musculoskeletal pain, gastrointestinal symptoms, and restlessness. None of the patients have had hemorrhagic symptoms. About 20% of the cases are reported in children ages 5 to 15 years old, and 18% involve kids younger than 5. Rapid tests of more than 500 samples showed 55.6% were positive for malaria, and, of about 70 blood smears, 77.9% were positive for malaria. Ngongo said multiple factors could be fueling the outbreak, including malaria, food or water contamination, flu, and typhoid fever. He also pointed out that weak healthcare systems and little access to medical care likely play contributing roles. He added that the latest febrile illness outbreak seems similar to an event in the DRC's Panzi health district, located in Kwango Province, in December 2024 that was found to be the result of common respiratory viruses, malaria, and malnutrition. In a statement today, the WHO African regional office said the DRC is facing many crises and outbreaks, which are straining its healthcare system. It said rapid response teams made up of provincial, DRC, and WHO experts are on the ground in Equateur province to assist with the investigation and to explore if there are unusual patterns. The WHO said malaria is common in the outbreak region."The experts are stepping up disease surveillance, conducting interviews with community members to understand the background, and providing treatment for diseases such as malaria, typhoid fever and meningitis," the WHO Africa office said, adding that it has delivered emergency supplies and developed protocols to enhance the outbreak investigation.
After TB treatment, kids still have high rates of abnormal lung function, symptoms - A systematic review of five studies concludes that, even after successful tuberculosis (TB) treatment, children and teens experience substantial respiratory impairment, with 40% to 65% having abnormal lung function and those younger than 10 years showing reduced height and weight and lower quality of life.McGill University researchers in Canada led the review, published in eClinical Medicine. The team reviewed studies published from January 2004 to December 2024 involving children aged 0 to 19 years who completed TB treatment and had at least one related impairment or disability. After identifying 117 potential studies, only 5—all published in 2023 and 2024 in South Africa or The Gambia—met the inclusion criteria, because over 80% excluded children."Tuberculosis remains a significant global health challenge, affecting over 10 million people annually, including more than 1 million children under 15 years of age," the researchers wrote. "Tuberculosis-associated respiratory impairment and disability, also known as post-tuberculosis lung disease, results from the complex interplay of bacterial, host, and environmental factors." After TB treatment, children younger than 5 years had diminished respiratory capacity. Of those aged 5 to 10 years, about 40% had abnormal lung function post-treatment, rising to 65% in those older than 10. Disability was common, with 35% to 50% of all children experiencing respiratory symptoms (eg, wheezing, cough) and children younger than 10 years displaying reduced physical growth and lower quality of life."Even after successful tuberculosis treatment, children and adolescents can experience respiratory impairments and disability that may reduce their quality of life, ability to participate in activities, and growth potential," they wrote. "The epidemiology and clinical manifestations of these impairments vary by age, reflecting distinct biological and behavioural differences."
CDC shares clinical and sequencing details from 3 recent human H5N1 cases - The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today shared new sequencing findings on samples from two people with H5N1 avian flu infections, one a patient from Wyoming who was hospitalized after contact with backyard poultry and the other a dairy worker from Nevada. It also fleshed out clinical findings for the two patients, plus another from Ohio. The CDC said the patient from Wyoming, who had underlying health conditions, had respiratory symptoms and had tested negative for the virus from an upper respiratory sample but was positive on a lower respiratory sample. Meanwhile, the patient from Nevada was a dairy worker whose only symptom was conjunctivitis. Similarly, the CDC added that a recent patient from Ohio, who had prolonged contact with sick and dead poultry, initially tested negative on upper-respiratory samples but was positive on lower respiratory tract sampling. It noted that both of the patients with poultry exposure had severe illness and were hospitalized but are both home and recovering. Sequencing of viruses from both patients revealed the D1.1 genotype, which is circulating widely in wild birds and poultry, with known jumps to dairy cows in Nevada and Arizona. The tests also identified some notable mutations. The Wyoming patient’s virus had the E627K mutation in the polymerase basic 2 (PB2) protein that has been linked to efficient replication in people and mammals and was also seen in a human case from Texas in 2024. The CDC said the Nevada patent’s virus had the D701N mutation in PB2 that has been linked to more efficient virus replication in mammalian cells and was seen in a patient from Chile in 2023. It added that the nucleotide sequence was almost identical to viruses from the dairy cows the patient worked with.For both patients, the CDC didn’t identify any genetic changes in the virus that would impact the effectiveness of antiviral medications or H5 candidate vaccine viruses.
HHS weighs rescinding Moderna bird flu vaccine contract -- The Trump administration confirmed it is reevaluating a $590 million human bird flu vaccine contract awarded to Moderna in the waning days of the Biden administration. “While it is crucial that the U.S. Department and Health and Human Services support pandemic preparedness, four years of the Biden administration’s failed oversight have made it necessary to review agreements for vaccine production,” a Health and Human Services (HHS) spokesperson said in an email. The review, first reported by Bloomberg, comes as the U.S. is in the middle of a bird flu outbreak that’s spreading among poultry and cattle herds, sending egg prices soaring. Human cases have been relatively rare, but the virus has caused deaths in the past. The current strain has killed one person in the U.S. to date. The funding review is part of a broader government push to examine spending on messenger RNA-based vaccines, the technology that Moderna and Pfizer used to develop their COVID-19 vaccines. It allows vaccines to be designed and manufactured more quickly than traditional approaches. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has openly criticized COVID-19 shots, calling the vaccine “the deadliest vaccine ever made.” In 2021, Kennedy filed a petition demanding the Food and Drug Administration pull the shots from the market and refrain from approving any other COVID vaccine in the future. Moderna has been searching for new revenue as it struggles in the postpandemic market amid flagging sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company recently reported $1 billion in fourth quarter revenue, a sharp decline from the $2.8 billion recorded in the same quarter in 2023.
H5N1 strikes more poultry in 4 states; CDC updates details on recent human cases -- Over the past several weeks, Ohio has been one of main outbreak epicenters, with one of the latest events involving a commercial farm in Darke County that has more than 3 million birds, according to APHIS. The virus also struck another layer farm in Ohio’s Mercer County, a facility that has nearly 85,000 birds.Elsewhere, the virus struck two more commercial farms in Indiana, another hard-hit state. The latest outbreaks occurred at a turkey farm in Washington County and a commercial duck-breeding facility in Elkhart County. The virus was also confirmed in backyard birds in two states, a location in Florida’s Broward County and a location in New York’s Delaware County.Over the last 30 days alone, ongoing H5N1 outbreaks have led to the loss of nearly 19 million birds.In dairy herd developments, over the last few days, APHIS confirmed one more detection, which involves another herd from Nevada. The state now has eight affected herds. Since the virus first emerged in dairy cattle about a year ago, detections have been reported in 973 herds across 17 states.In updates on February 21, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed H5N1 in samples from an Ohio poultry worker whose illness was first reported on February 12. The CDC had initially listed as a probable case. In its latest FluView update, the CDC added a few more details about the two recent human cases, including the one from Ohio and a patient from Wyoming. It said the patient from Ohio worked on an outbreak farm and was involved in culling activities. The patient was hospitalized with respiratory and nonrespiratory symptoms and now recovering at home. Meanwhile, a recently reported patient from Wyoming who got sick after exposure to backyard poultry remains hospitalized after experiencing both respiratory and nonrespiratory symptoms. The CDC has confirmed 70 cases, one of them fatal, since early 2024. The agency has also recorded seven probable cases.
2 pet cats in Washington state get avian flu; 3 more detections in cattle Two domestic, indoor cats in King and Snohomish counties in Washington state have tested positive for H5N1 avian flu after eating potentially contaminated raw pet food, and more cats are being tested for the virus, the Washington State Department of Agriculture (WSDA) announcedyesterday.The owners told authorities that they fed their cats Wild Coast Raw pet food, the same brand implicated in recent feline illnesses in Oregon. One of the Washington cats had to be euthanized, and the other, from a separate household, is receiving treatment. The cats' household members are being monitored for 10 days.The cases come on the heels of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) detections earlier this month in 10 pet cats in five states: California, Colorado, Oregon, Kansas, and New Mexico."To date, there have been no documented human cases of HPAI following exposure to an infected cat or contaminated raw pet food products," the WSDA said. "The currently circulating strain of HPAI is considered low risk to the public, but there is greater risk for those who handle contaminated raw pet food products or who care for infected animals." "People can become infected if the virus enters their eyes, nose, or mouth—such as by handling contaminated pet food or touching contaminated surfaces, especially without thoroughly washing their hands afterward," the agency added.Common signs of H5N1 infection in cats are lethargy, loss of appetite, fever, and hypothermia. The infection can progress to pneumonia, neurologic abnormalities, and upper respiratory infection."This is a difficult situation, we love our pets, and it's devastating when they fall ill," WSDA field veterinarian Zac Turner, DVM, said in the news release. "If your cat is showing symptoms, consult a veterinarian as soon as possible."The WSDA advises against feeding raw pet food or raw milk to animals. Also yesterday, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed 3 more H5N1 detections in dairy cattle, with 2 in Nevada and 1 in California, bringing the national total to 976.
USDA rolls out 5-step plan to battle avian flu in poultry - Newly confirmed US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Brooke Rollins, JD, today introduced new steps to battle avian flu in poultry and stabilize the egg supply, which includes $500 million to help poultry producers shore up biosecurity measures. Earlier this week, Rollins met with egg producers during a tour of an egg-laying facility in Texas, and today she detailed USDA's strategy in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal. The USDA also detailed the plan today on its website.Since 2022, the H5N1 avian flu virus has led to the loss of more than 166 million poultry, including 19 million over the past 30 days. Outbreaks over the fall and winter have hit poultry farms hard, especially layer facilities in some of the top egg-producing states, such as Ohio. Along with a heavy burden on farmers, the outbreaks have diminished the supply of eggs, increased egg prices, and continue to pose a risk to people who have intensive contact with sick and dead poultry. Rollins wrote that there is no silver bullet for eradicating avian flu, but the USDA is adopting a five-pronged strategy, with the $500 million in biosecurity support as one of the key steps. This step will include free biosecurity assessment for commercial layer farms, with the federal government to pay up to 75% of the cost of repairing biosecurity vulnerabilities. Second, she said the USDA will increase financial relief to affected farms and streamline approval to ensure they can resume operations as quicky as possible following outbreaks. Regarding vaccines and therapeutics, the USDA will provide up to $100 million in research and development, with an overall goal of reducing the need to depopulate flocks. Rollins added that the USDA will work closely with stakeholders on whether to use a vaccine, if approved. "We will also work with our trading partners to minimize potential negative trade effects for U.S. producers and to assess public-health concerns," Rollins wrote. Some countries bar poultry imports from nations that vaccinate commercial poultry due to concerns that their use could mask ongoing avian flu circulation. However, the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) said in a 2023 policy brief that the rapid spread of the virus requires a review of existing control strategies, given that current tools might not be enough. Earlier this month, the USDA conditionally approved a license for an avian flu vaccine for poultry made by Zoetis. The final two steps include removing regulatory burdens, when possible, and considering egg imports as a temporary solution to boost the egg supply, if the suppliers meet stringent US food safety standards. Mike Naig, Iowa's agriculture secretary, said today that he is grateful that Rollins and the USDA are making avian flu a top priority, given that Iowa poultry farms have been hit hard by H5N1. "I am supportive of exploring an effective H5N1 HPAI vaccination strategy. I encourage USDA to work closely with state animal health officials, farmers and industry to formulate an implementation strategy, incorporate valuable lessons learned, and minimize potential negative trade impacts," he said. In other avian flu developments, the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed 11 more H5N1 detections in mammals, 10 of them cats in five states. Most of the samples from cats were collected in the first half of February. Six of the detections were in Oregon's Clackamas County, with single cases reported in Kansas (Rooks County), California (Imperial County), New Mexico (Curry County), and Colorado (Adams County). The other mammal detection is a mouse in Darke Country, Ohio, a recent hot spot for commercial poultry outbreaks.Meanwhile, APHIS confirmed one more detection in poultry, which involves a layer farm in Mercer County, Ohio, that has 90,000 birds.
Posey County, Indiana, reports its first CWD case, second in the state - Another Indiana county is reporting its first case of chronic wasting disease (CWD), less than a year after the state's first detection.A 2.5-year-old white-tailed buck in Posey County tested positive after being harvested by a hunter, the Indiana Department of Natural Resources (DNR) said in a news release late last week. The county is in the southwestern part of Indiana, on the border with CWD-positive Illinois and CWD-positive Kentucky, the far opposite of LaGrange County, where the state's first case was discovered in April 2024. LaGrange County abuts CWD-positive Michigan. The other state that borders Indiana, Ohio, has also reported cases of the fatal neurodegenerative disease. CWD, a disease of cervids such as deer, moose, and elk, is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, which spread through direct contact and the environment.The disease isn't known to infect people, but some experts fear it could cause illness similar to another prion disease, bovine spongiform encephalopathy ("mad cow" disease). The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warns against eating meat from infected animals, as cooking temperatures cannot deactivate prions.
Eau Claire County, Wisconsin, farmed-deer CWD case triggers baiting ban in adjoining county --After a deer on a farm in Eau Claire County recently tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (DNR) established a new 2-year baiting and feeding ban in adjoining Clark County starting March 1. The deer was found within 10 miles of the borders with Clark and Jackson counties, triggering the ban, the DNR said yesterday in a news release. Eau Claire, Clark, and Jackson counties are in the west-central part of the state."Eau Claire and Jackson counties already have baiting and feeding bans in place from recent wild detections within each county," it said. "These counties will not be impacted by this detection, as the existing bans are longer than the two-year ban that would otherwise result from this detection." Baiting and feeding encourage deer to congregate around a shared food source, risking the transmission of CWD through direct contact or environmental contamination. CWD, a fatal neurologic disease of cervids such as deer, elk, and moose, is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, which can persist in the environment for years. While no CWD cases have been detected in people, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends against eating infected animals and advises taking precautions when handling carcasses.
Survey reveals over 1.1 million honey bee colonies lost, raising alarm for pollination and agriculture -- A nationwide survey of beekeepers has revealed catastrophic honey bee colony losses across the United States, with commercial operations reporting an average loss of 62% between June 2024 and February 2025. These alarming losses, which surpass historical trends, could significantly impact U.S. agriculture, particularly crop pollination for almonds, fruits, vegetables, and other essential food sources.“Early reports of severe colony losses began pouring in last month from beekeepers across the country,” said Danielle Downey, executive director of Project Apis m. “In response, a multi-organizational working group—including Project Apis m., the American Beekeeping Federation, and the American Honey Producers Association—quickly mobilized to launch this survey. The goal was to assess the scope and severity of the losses, gather critical management data, and help guide research efforts to determine potential causes.”“Initial survey results of colony losses suggest that commercial beekeepers may have lost in excess of 60% of their bees. The scale of these losses is completely unsustainable,” said Zac Browning, a fourth-generation commercial beekeeper and board chairman of Project Apis m. “Honey bees are the backbone of our food system, pollinating the crops that feed our nation. If we continue to see losses at this rate, we simply won’t be able to sustain current food production. The industry must look inward and outward for solutions to chronic bee health failure.”Administered by Project Apis m., the survey gathered data from 702 beekeepers, covering colony losses, management practices, and potential contributing factors. It is estimated that survey participants account for over 1.835 million colonies, approximately 68% of the nation’s bees. Findings from the survey indicate:
- Hobbyist beekeepers (1-49 colonies) lost an average of 50% of their colonies.
- Sideliner operations (50-500 colonies) lost an average of 54% of their colonies.
- Commercial beekeepers (more than 500 colonies) lost an average of 62%—a reversal of typical trends, where commercial beekeepers generally experience lower losses due to their scale and resources.
These results translate to an estimated 1,123,959 colony losses among respondents, resulting in the following immediate economic losses:
- Direct colony losses: Conservatively estimated at $224.8 million (based on a $200 per colony replacement cost, not including labor,feed or treatments).
- Economic impact: Factoring in lost almond pollination income based on the survey results, which was estimated at $181 per colony in 2023, the lost income exceeds $428 million.The loss rate to US colonies that were not accounted for in the survey is estimated at an additional $206.4 million in losses, which could equal a total estimated economic loss of $634.7 million.
Additional economic impacts not included in this figure include the loss of honey production and pollination contracts for any crops following almonds. This scale of loss could have significant repercussions for pollination businesses and the security of pollination-dependent crops, leading to increasing costs and threatening food security.
Mutualistic interaction between caterpillars and ants is highly specific, study shows --Some families of caterpillars (larvae of butterflies and moths) have developed a specific kind of interaction with ants. One of these families (Riodinidae) includes two species that interact solely with two species of ants. In a study published in the journal Insect Science, researchers in Brazil show that this interaction is highly specific in the sense that each caterpillar species interacts only with oneant species.In an experiment performed by the researchers involving switched caterpillar-ant pairs, the ants attacked and killed the caterpillars even when the latter used specific organs to secrete a sugary liquid that should have assured protection by ants. In the experiment, the researchers collected caterpillars of the species Juditha molpe, which live in harmony with ants of the species Dolichoderus bispinosus, and caterpillars of the species Nymphidium chione, which are found only where there are ants of the species Pheidole biconstricta. The caterpillars were collected at the Serra das Araras Ecological Station in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso. In one group, the researchers switched only the plant caterpillars and kept the same ant species. In another, they switched the pairs, putting J. molpe caterpillars with P. biconstricta ants and N. chione caterpillars with D. bispinosusants, while combining all of them with the same plant genus (Inga spp). In the first group, the interaction was the same as it had been with the previous plant, and the pairs interacted harmoniously. The ants touched the caterpillars with their feelers until they located two openings to specific organs for communication by the caterpillars with ants. The caterpillars secreted a nectar, which the ants consumed, and soon afterward the ants began protecting the caterpillars. With different ants, however, the outcome was unfavorable to the caterpillars. In this context, the ants at first ignored the caterpillars until they found the opening to one of the specialized nectar secretion organs. After the ants touched the site with their feelers, the caterpillars secreted the nectar, which initially calmed the ants. Discover the latest in science, tech, and space with over 100,000 subscribers who rely on Phys.org for daily insights. Sign up for our free newsletter and get updates on breakthroughs, innovations, and research that matter—daily or weekly. This effect was short-lived, however. It ended when a caterpillar was unable to go on producing the nectar, or when the ants touched the region near another organ used solely for interaction with ants, and the organ did not react. After inspecting the caterpillar a little longer, the ants began behaving aggressively, opening their mandibles and biting. "Almost all of the caterpillars were killed during this pair-switching treatment. Soldiers of the species P. biconstricta even used their strong mandibles to cut J. molpe into pieces," Lima said. Finding ants to pair with is so important for the caterpillars, he explained, that adult females lay eggs only on the plant species inhabited by the right ant species. "When the eggs hatch, the ants will protect the caterpillars from predation by other animals. Without the ants' protection, they die before their time," he said. The researchers now plan to find out whether the small amounts of CHC also ward off attacks by other natural enemies, such as predators and parasitoids that use chemical clues to locate prey and hosts.
Mice exhibit paramedic-like behaviors toward unresponsive peers, study finds --University of California, Los Angeles, researchers have identified neural mechanisms behind prosocial behaviors in mice directed toward unresponsive conspecifics. Their findings suggest that mice, driven by an amygdala-regulated response, preferentially approach and engage in head-directed grooming toward sedated peers, which facilitates their recovery from unresponsiveness.Partial or complete loss of responsiveness, such as transient unconsciousness, increases vulnerability in animals. While humans readily recognize and assist unconscious individuals, previous documentation of similar behaviors in nonhuman species has been anecdotal and limited to a few taxa, including nonhuman primates and marine mammals.Controlled experimental examination of such behaviors in other species and their underlying neural mechanisms has been lacking.In the study, "A neural basis for prosocial behavior toward unresponsive individuals,"published in Science, researchers used male and female mice to assess responses to conspecifics under unresponsive sedation induced by dexmedetomidine.Behavioral assays revealed that mice spent more time engaging in intense physical contact and grooming, particularly targeting the facial and mouth areas of sedated peers, compared with awake partners. Grooming intensity increased over time during the sessions and was not influenced by the sex of either the helper or the recipient.Three-chamber preference tests demonstrated that mice favored interacting with unresponsive conspecifics over awake ones, and this preference was not driven by novelty or stationary object attraction.Mice detected the unresponsive state of conspecifics without relying on visual cues. Behavioral responses, including head-directed grooming, remained consistent when experiments were conducted in complete darkness, indicating that other sensory modalities, such as auditory, olfactory or somatosensory cues, likely mediated this detection.Mice also distinguished between sedated and stressed partners, displaying head-focused grooming toward sedated individuals and body-focused grooming toward stressed ones.
Mixed-species forests outperform monocultures in carbon storage, even in extreme weather -- An international study led by the University of Freiburg, published in Global Change Biology, has found that forests with many tree species can store significantly more carbon than those with only one species. Researchers used data from the world's oldest tropical tree diversity experiment and found that forests planted with five tree species had substantially higher aboveground carbon stocks and greater fluxes between the carbon stores than monocultures. The results highlight the benefits of mixed-species forests for forest restoration initiatives that aim at mitigating climate change through carbon sequestration. New data from the world's longest-running experiment on tropical tree diversity Growing evidence suggests that tree diversity enhances ecosystem functions like carbon sequestration. However, previous studies struggled to isolate this effect from other factors or focused on young plantations, making it uncertain whether the findings applied to older forests. To address this, the researchers analyzed data from the world's longest-running tropical tree diversity experiment, located in Panama. The Sardinilla experiment, established in 2001 on a former pasture, includes 22 plots with one, two, three or five native tree species, which have reached a comparatively advanced stage of stand development due to the rapid growth of trees in the tropics. The team examined data related to a range of different carbon stocks and fluxes, ranging from carbon in aboveground tree biomass to carbon in leaf litter and in mineral soil. The scientists found that planted forests with five tree species had significantly higher aboveground carbon stocks and greater carbon fluxes than those with only one species. For instance, the species-rich forests captured 57% more carbon in aboveground tree biomass than monospecific forests. However, there were no differences in carbon stocks and fluxes belowground. Remarkably, the positive tree diversity effect on aboveground carbon stocks strengthened over time, despite repeated climatic extreme events such as a severe El Niño-driven drought and a hurricane that hit the experiment. "This is important, because in the face of climate change, the long-term carbon balance of forests will depend largely on their stability to disturbances. Diverse forests exhibit greater ecological stability and the risk that the stored carbon is released back to the atmosphere is lower than in monocultures,"
Nations back $200 billion-a-year plan to reverse nature losses - More than 140 countries adopted a strategy to mobilize hundreds of billions of dollars a year to help reverse dramatic losses in biodiversity, though failed to decide on establishing a new global nature fund—a key demand of developing economies. Nations attending the 16th United Nations Biodiversity Conference, known as COP16, in Rome deferred a decision on a new fund—intended to help accelerate the flow of financing to projects—until 2028. The talks followed a previous inconclusive summit in Colombia last year. A finance strategy adopted to applause and tears from delegates, underpins "our collective capacity to sustain life on this planet," said Susana Muhamad, Colombia's outgoing environment minister and COP16 president. Negotiators faced a "very polarized, fragmented, divisive and conflicted geopolitical landscape" and demonstrated that "multilateralism can deliver." The agreement will guide countries on how to raise $200 billion a year by the end of the decade to meet the targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, a landmark nature pact adopted in December 2022, which range from safeguarding clean water to halving food waste to slashing the use of harmful chemicals. The decision represents a "balanced, compromise solution," said Maria Angélica Ikeda, who is leading Brazil's delegation. Brazil, which will host the next major U.N. climate summit in November, is "very happy," she said. Under the agreement, developed nations are urged to "enhance their efforts" to mobilize $20 billion annually for poorer countries by the end of this year. It also calls for a study on the relationship between debt sustainability and nature protection—an item observers have welcomed as novel and progressive—as well as better coordination between ministers of environment and finance. Reaching a consensus on the plans "shows countries can come together and agree on an ambitious outcome for nature," said Georgina Chandler, head of policy at the Zoological Society of London, an international conservation charity. It "recognizes that government finance is not going to be enough," and the need to diversify sources of funding over the next five years. Global action to curb greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss has been challenged by a series of recent setbacks in environmental diplomacy, with emerging nations accusing developed countries at successive U.N.-backed summits of doing too little to raise the flow of funding. That's been exacerbated by U.S. President Donald Trump's moves to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, and to slash funding directed at tackling climate change. Trump's decision last month to freeze key sources of biodiversity finance, including funds for the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the UK's move this week to divert overseas aid to defense expenditure heaped pressure on negotiators in Rome. The U.S. is not a signatory to the Convention on Biological Diversity and cannot directly influence the talks, but there's usually an American delegation present. The seat allocated to U.S. officials this week remained empty.
Over two dozen buildings collapse in Oswego County under weight of snow, New York - Over two dozen buildings have collapsed across the state of New York due to heavy lake effect snow affecting the region from February 14 to 19, 2025. At least 26 buildings collapsed in Oswego County, while a Fire Department building collapsed in Oneida County on February 22, as heavy snow accumulated on roofs following a lake-effect snowstorm that deposited over 1.8 m (6 feet) of snow in one week in some areas. Heavy lake-effect snow began accumulating on February 14 and continued through February 19, leading to roof collapses across the county. By February 19, Palermo recorded the highest weekly snowfall total at 2.01 m (79.1 inches), while Minetto reported 1.42 m (55.8 inches). Oswego City recorded a snow depth of 51 cm (20 inches) on February 19, the highest measured in the city so far this February, according to the National Weather Service (NWS). Structural collapses were also reported in other parts of the state as the lake-effect snowstorm brought significant snowfall to multiple counties. YouTube video Accumulated snow also caused part of the Barneveld Fire Department’s building to collapse in Oneida County at around 17:22 local time (LT) on February 22. Fire station members had reported hearing popping sounds at around 15:00 and discovered structural damage near the truss area. Although members initially attempted to stabilize the structure by removing snow from the roof and moving equipment outside, it was soon determined to be too unstable, and all personnel were evacuated before the building collapsed. The shipping and receiving building of a business complex collapsed with an active propane leak on February 18. Firefighters responded to the scene after receiving calls at around 18:16 LT from Trenton Highway Crews. The town of Trenton was under a storm emergency on February 17 and 18 due to heavy snow accumulation. A countywide state of emergency was also declared for Oswego County by Legislature Chairman James Weatherup that lasted till 17:00 LT on February 19. The New York State Office of Fire Prevention and Control (OFPC) deployed a team specializing in structural collapse response. The team began working with the Oswego County Fire Coordinator’s Office, Volney Fire Department, and the county’s technical rescue team on February 20, rescuing a man from a collapsed shed on County Route 176 in Volney. Oswego County Fire Coordinator Shane Laws stated in a news release that most of the collapses involved businesses and advised residents to call 911 if they believed their homes were at risk. Crews across the state continue to clear accumulated snow from the roads.
Buffalo, New York, Has Seen 53 Days Of Snow This Year – video - Buffalo is the third-snowiest city in New York so far this year, right behind Syracuse and Rochester. The city has seen 53 days of snow in 2025, and Sunday was only the 54th day of the year. Here’s what Buffalo looked like on Sunday, as snow squalls made for whiteout conditions.
Historic floods claim 21 lives in Kentucky - (4 YouTube videos) At least 21 people have died in Kentucky after severe flooding swept through the state starting February 15, 2025, when a powerful storm system brought heavy rainfall, triggering widespread destruction and mudslides. The latest fatality was reported on February 22 in Logan County, Governor Andy Beshear announced. “Kentucky has suffered one of the worst natural disasters in years, with impacts felt statewide,” Beshear said. “While we still have a long road ahead, I am grateful for the progress being made to restore power, open roads, and help our neighbors stay safe. We’re in this together.” The first casualty was reported on Sunday, February 16, when a 73-year-old man was found dead after being swept away by floodwaters. His vehicle had stalled in the Horse Creek community near Manchester due to the flooding. The death toll kept rising through the week as more bodies were found. By February 20, 15 people had been reported dead. The toll shot up again on February 20, when five bodies were discovered in different counties across the state. The storm caused severe damage, destroyed structures, and displaced people across the state, with emergency responders conducting over 1 000 rescues due to the flooding event. Multiple mudslides were also reported. Rock slide at 1-69 in Dawson Springs Kentucky on Saturday, February 15, 2025. Rock slide at 1-69 in Dawson Springs, Kentucky on Saturday, February 15, 2025. Image credit: Dawson Spring Police YouTube video The damage from floods was extensive and is still being assessed, with multiple bridges, embankments, and roads severely damaged or destroyed.
Severe floods claim 11 lives in Madagascar - At least 11 people have died in severe flooding that has affected parts of Madagascar, including the Analamanga region, over the past two weeks. Rising river levels since February 15, 2025, have led to widespread inundation, prompting school closures and emergency rescues in the affected areas. Flooding along the Sisaony river in Madagascar on February 15, 2025. Severe flooding hit parts of Madagascar following heavy rainfall through mid-February, triggering Red Flood Warnings across affected regions. Latest reports indicate at least 11 fatalities in the Analamanga region. Analamanga, Itasy, Vakinankaratra, and Amoron’i Mania were among the worst affected areas. Visuals shared online showed the affected regions submerged in murky waters due to the intense rainfall, with 40–90 mm reported in some areas in the 24 hours leading up to February 17. By February 18, water levels in several rivers had reached flood levels. The Sisaony River rose to 2.8–3.3 m between February 17 and 18, while the Ikopa River rose from 3.41 m to 3.61 m in the same period. Flooding along the Sisaony River in Madagascar on February 15, 2025. Image credit: CIRGN Antananarivo Floods had been affecting much of the region since the previous week, with flooding along the Sisaony River being reported since February 15, prompting water rescued by local authorities in the affected areas along the river. The rising water levels led to severe flooding across the region, causing school closures on February 17 and 18 as rising water levels led to river flooding in the region. Schools were scheduled to reopen on February 19 but remained closed due to continued flooding. They reopened in parts of the region on February 22 as flood waters began to subside.
At least nine dead after severe flooding and landslides hit KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa - (2 YouTube videos) At least nine people died following devastating floods and landslides in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa from February 19 to 22, 2025. Devastating floods and landslides caused by heavy rainfall across the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) left at least nine people dead and caused extensive damage to infrastructure, displacement of residents, and road closures. Intense rainfall triggered a landslide in Adams Mission on February 19, located within KwaMakhutha, a peri-urban area south of Durban. The landslide caused two structures to collapse, leading to three fatalities. One house was torn apart by the landslide, burying a family inside, according to Garrith Jamieson, spokesperson for ALS Paramedics. “Fortunately, the children managed to escape. However, the parents were unable to get out in time, and it’s alleged they’ve been buried underneath sand and rubble,” Jamieson said. The fire department and police search-and-rescue teams worked overnight to recover three bodies by mid-morning on February 20. Three additional deaths were reported, a 13-year-old boy in Folweni, a 12-year-old girl in Demat, and a 13-year-old girl in Ensimbini. Another man in his thirties was killed in a separate landslide nearby. Emergency response teams worked through the night to assist trapped victims, but all six people in these incidents succumbed to their injuries. KZN Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs (Cogta) spokesperson Sezelwe Mzila confirmed that two more fatalities were recorded in KwaQololoqo in the Umzumbe Local Municipality under the Ugu district. “It is believed that two men were swept away while trying to cross a river in the area,” Mzila said. The South African Weather Service (Saws) reported that Amanzimtoti received 184 mm (7.2 inches) of rain between midnight and 05:00 LT (03:00 UTC) on February 20. Several parts of Durban experienced severe flooding, including Isipingo and Prospecton, where roads have been closed. The municipality has activated its joint Disaster Management Operations Centre to coordinate rescue and relief efforts. Member of the Executive Council (MEC) for Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs in KwaZulu-Natal, Thulasizwe Buthelezi, acknowledged the province’s vulnerability to extreme weather conditions and revealed that KZN has received more than 30 severe weather warnings from the South African Weather Service (Saws) since December 2024. “Since December last year, the impact has been significant, with 30 lives lost, 33 people injured, and more than 2 000 households affected,” Buthelezi stated. The estimated cost of damage stands at R3.1 billion ($162 million). Several landslides and wall collapses were reported in areas such as KwaMakhutha, Amanzimtoti, uMlazi, and Maqaqa Lifestyle Centre. Disaster response teams are on-site with heavy machinery to rescue those who may still be trapped. Trees have been uprooted and are blocking roadways in Chatsworth, Umkomaas, Morningside, and Verulam, complicating the rescue operations. Cathy Sutherland, a professor at the University of KwaZulu-Natal’s School of Built Environment and Development Studies, explained that in peri-urban areas, many homes are built on unstable slopes without proper stormwater management systems. “Saturated slopes due to prolonged rainfall, combined with intense downpours, can lead to catastrophic collapses in both formal and informal areas,” she said.
Severe floods leave at least 26 dead in Helmand and Farah, Afghanistan - Heavy rainfall triggered flash floods in multiple districts of Helmand and Farah provinces, Afghanistan, leading to the deaths of at least 26 people, as of February 26, 2025. Heavy rainfall in Afghanistan’s Helmand province has resulted in the deaths of 5 people, including women and children, and left six others injured on February 26. Authorities confirmed that the floods affected the districts of Sangin, Musa Qala, and Babaji in Helmand. Hafiz Abdulbari Rashid, the head of the Information and Culture Department in Helmand, stated that in Sangin’s Shahzada area, the roof of a house collapsed because of flooding, resulting in the deaths of two children. In Musa Qala, three more individuals lost their lives as floodwaters swept through the district. In Gereshk district, a lightning strike hit a house, injuring six residents. The latest disaster follows severe flooding in Farah province on February 25, when at least 21 people died and five others sustained injuries. Reports indicate that torrential rains in Pusht-e-Koh district caught three families off guard during an outing in the mountains. Flash floods rapidly engulfed the area, throwing individuals into deep ravines and leading to casualties. Women and children were among those who perished. Potential river flood forecast by WFP on February 24, 2025 The Taliban’s meteorological department had issued prior warnings regarding the risk of flash floods across multiple provinces, including Farah. The region is prone to extreme weather, with annual flooding causing loss of life and property damage.
Large sinkholes threaten over 1 200 residents in Buriticupu, Brazil - Significant erosion and large sinkholes are threatening over 1 200 people in the Buriticupu Municipality of Brazil. The town declared a state of emergency on February 11, 2025, due to the growing size of sinkholes in the area. Arial view of the sinkhole triggered by erosion near Buriticupu in February 2025. Image credit: Marinho Air Drones/ Prefeitura Municipal De Buriticupu Large sinkholes have been forming in Buriticupu, Maranhão state, since late 2024, posing a growing risk to local residents and forcing authorities to declare a state of emergency on February 11. According to official reports, several buildings have already sustained damage, and over 1 200 people now face potential displacement in a town of about 55 000. Ad ends in 12 “In the last few months, the sinkholes have expanded exponentially, approaching substantially closer to the residences,” said the government in a decree that mentioned 16 sectors as high-risk areas for sinkholes triggered by the erosion in the region. Arial view of the sinkhole triggered by erosion near Buriticupu in February 2025. According to local authorities, several factors—including poorly designed drainage systems—have contributed to erosion and the formation of sinkholes. The combination of inadequate drainage, heavy rainfall, and poor street planning causes water to flow through muddy gullies, accelerating soil erosion in the region. Most of the neighborhoods in the region are located on inclines and slopes, further exacerbating erosion and increasing risks to residential structures.
Flash floods wash away vehicles in Himachal Pradesh, India - (video) Torrential rain triggered flash floods in the Kullu district on February 27, washing away multiple vehicles in the Bhootnath Nala area. In addition, landslides have buried several vehicles under debris in Gandhi Nagar. Continuous rainfall has led to the closure of 444 roads across the state, including four national highways. National Highway 305 and NH-5, critical routes connecting Shimla to Kinnaur and Upper Shimla, have been blocked by landslides. Major disruptions have been reported in Rampur and Rohru because of road blockages restricting transportation and the supply of essential goods. The Public Works Department is working to clear the debris, but ongoing precipitation is delaying recovery efforts. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued an Orange Alert on February 27 for heavy to very heavy precipitation in the Mandi, Kangra, Kullu, and Chamba districts, warning of continued adverse weather conditions. The IMD has predicted heavy snowfall in the Lahaul and Spiti districts, with Shimla also expected to receive a mix of rain and snow. Heavy rains are also forecasted for the Una and Hamirpur districts. Snow accumulation has been recorded in multiple locations, with Keylong in Lahaul-Spiti receiving 20 cm (7.87 inches) of snow, while areas like Khadrala, Kukumseri, and Hansa have reported substantial snowfall. Temperatures have dropped significantly across the state, with Tabo in Lahaul-Spiti recording a low of minus 4.5°C (23.9°F). Sarahan received the highest rainfall in the last 24 hours, measuring 29.1 mm (1.15 inches), followed by Seobagh with 22.2 mm (0.87 inches) and Manali with 19 mm (0.75 inches). Other regions, including Bharmour, Jot, Gohar, and Karsog, have also reported substantial rainfall, while Shimla, Solan, and Kasauli recorded light showers between 2–5 mm (0.08–0.20 inches). The IMD has also issued warnings for possible thunderstorms with lightning in multiple regions and advised residents to avoid unnecessary travel. Himachal Pradesh received only 70.4 mm (2.77 inches) of rain between January 1 and February 27, which is 61% below the expected 181.7 mm (7.15 inches) for this period. The shortfall has raised concerns over potential drought conditions in the upcoming summer months. Schools and educational institutions in affected districts, including Kullu, Shimla, Chamba, Kinnaur, and Lahaul-Spiti, have been closed as a precautionary measure.
Tropical Cyclone Garance makes historic landfall over Réunion Island - (video) Tropical Cyclone Garance made landfall on the north coast of Réunion Island at approximately 10:00 local time (06:00 UTC) on February 28, 2025, bringing destructive winds and heavy rainfall. At the time of landfall, the cyclone’s minimum central pressure was recorded at 971.5 hPa in Gillot, located about 7 km (4 miles) east of Saint-Denis. The storm is moving south-southwest at approximately 24 km/h (15 mph) and is expected to maintain this trajectory throughout Friday. Historical records indicate that only five cyclones have previously made landfall on the island, making Garance the sixth. However, this number may vary due to inconsistencies in older meteorological records. The cyclone produced wind gusts of 214 km/h (133 mph) at Gillot Airport, the highest recorded since Cyclone Jenny struck the island in 1962. “With modern observation methods, this is a record for the station,” Météo France meteorologists said. Wind gusts reached 174 km/h (108 mph) at Maïdo, 169 km/h (105 mph) at Bellevue-Bras Panon, and 16 km/h (10 mph) at Plaine des Cafres. The strong winds have uprooted trees and torn roofs off buildings on the island. YouTube video A Purple Violent Cyclone Alert is in effect for the entire island. Wind gusts of up to 220 km/h (137 mph) are forecast for northern and eastern areas. “Beware of the temporary calm associated with the eye’s passage, which may be locally felt. Heavy rainfall and very dangerous seas accompany the cyclone,” Météo France said.
Long-term costs of global warming: Weaker ocean circulation could cost trillions --A major motor for the global climate is beginning to falter: a massive system of ocean currents called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which also includes the Gulf Stream. As a new study conducted by experts at the University of Hamburg's Cluster of Excellence for climate research CLICCS and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology shows, a weaker AMOC could produce long-term costs amounting to several trillion euros by the year 2100. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports warm water north from the Tropics and cold water back to the south, serving as a "radiator" for Europe's climate. Until recently, economic research has considered a weakening AMOC to be beneficial, as this would cool the Northern Hemisphere in periods of global warming. "But a weakening AMOC would further accelerate climate change," explains co-author and climate economist Felix Schaumann, Ph.D. candidate in Sustainability Economics at the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and co-author of the study, which has just been published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. What we already knew: when the Arctic ice melts, massive amounts of freshwater flow into the ocean. The seawater becomes diluted and less saline, a development that reduces its density and causes it to sink more slowly—and one that will likely slow the AMOC. Now, Schaumann and his colleague Eduardo Alastrué de Asenjo, from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the Climate Modeling group of the University of Hamburg, have confirmed: as a result of this process, less CO₂ is transported from the surface ocean to the deep ocean. More CO₂ remains in the atmosphere, which accelerates global warming. "Our findings indicate that previous studies on AMOC weakening most likely underestimated the economic impacts," says Schaumann. In global terms, the acceleration of climate change would produce more frequent and extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts and floods, leading to an increase in the social cost of carbon. This cost represents the damage caused by additional CO₂ emissions, and the increase in the social cost of carbon could offset the economic benefits of the cooling that accompanies a weaker AMOC. The findings are based on a global climate model in combination with an economic model that estimates economic costs along different scenarios of CO₂ emissions. Using this approach, the experts created a first scenario based on the CO₂ development without any AMOC-related effects, and a second, which reflected various degrees of weakening. This allowed them to establish a direct connection between the strength of the AMOC and the amount of carbon the global ocean can take up.
Competing effects of global warming and sea surface temperature explain recent strengthening of the Walker circulation- The Walker circulation, an atmospheric circulation pattern in the tropics, has accelerated in recent years, puzzling climate scientists who had anticipated the opposite. Researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the University of Tokyo have found out why by revealing the competing effects between global warming and the sea surface temperature pattern effect. Contrary to scientists' expectations, the Pacific Walker circulation—a large-scale circulation in the tropical atmosphere—has strengthened in recent decades. Why this is the case, and how the Walker circulation might develop in the future, are urgent questions. After all, it impacts weather patterns far beyond the tropics. This can be witnessed during La Niña and El Niño conditions, phenomena that are known to cause extreme weather in various regions of the world, with the former being linked to a strengthening and the latter to a weakening of the Walker circulation. The Walker circulation forms over the tropical Pacific, where the Western Pacific is typically warm with low sea level pressure and the Eastern Pacific is cooler with high pressure. Warm, moist air ascends over the West Pacific, while cooler, dry air descends over the Eastern Pacific. Near-surface equatorial trade winds, blowing east to west, complete the circulation loop. A new study led by Sarah Kang, director at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology,provides an explanation of the unexpected recent behavior of the Walker circulation. The research is published in Geophysical Research Letters. The team compared dedicated simulations of the general circulation atmospheric model ECHAM6.3 over the past 35 years, which assumed different warming amplitudes and sea surface temperature (SST) patterns: What happens for a certain temperature increase given the observed SST pattern? Would it be any different if the SST pattern were reversed? The researchers examined both the Walker circulation—defined as the difference in sea level pressure between the West and East Pacific—and the subgrid-scale convective mass flux, a direct measure of convection strength. The convective mass flux is expected to decrease with increasing temperatures because the atmosphere becomes more stable due to amplified warming in the upper tropical troposphere under global warming. This reasoning is in agreement with observations. A weakening of the convective mass flux has been commonly used to argue that the Walker circulation will also slow down. But the observations were telling a different story. Kang and her colleagues found out why: The Walker circulation is not as tightly coupled to the convective mass flux as previously assumed. "Despite global warming, the Walker circulation can strengthen if the difference in SST between the West and East Pacific is sufficiently large," says Kang. "This not only explains the recent strengthening of the Walker circulation, which coincides with cooling in the East Pacific, but also suggests that it could continue to strengthen for some time, as long as the increasing zonal SST gradient persists." However, climate scientists might be proven right in the long term: As global warming continues, the SST gradient is projected to decrease, and the SST pattern effect will then reinforce the global warming effect, leading to a weakening of the Walker circulation. Therefore, while the Walker circulation may strengthen in the short term, it is likely to slow down in the long run.
Seismic unrest near Fentale volcano persists month after rare methane emissions, Ethiopia - Nearly a month after satellites detected massive methane plumes spewing from Ethiopia’s Mount Fentale on January 31, 2025, new data shows emissions have declined since February 9—yet ongoing seismic unrest, including a magnitude 6.0 earthquake on February 14, keeps scientists and locals on high alert. Significant methane emissions were detected from Mount Fentale, a stratovolcano in Ethiopia’s Main Ethiopian Rift, on January 31, 2025. The emissions were identified using the “tip-and-cue” method, which integrates data from Europe’s Sentinel-5P TROPOMI satellite and GHGSat’s high-resolution sensors. This discovery is unusual, as volcanic degassing is typically dominated by carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), with methane emissions being rare. Ad ends in 28 The January 31 finding was flagged by the SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research, which monitors methane plumes for the European Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). GHGSat’s targeted follow-up pinpointed the source at the volcano’s crater, estimating the emission rate at 58 metric tonnes per hour. (Methane emissions over Fentale volcano on January 31, 2025. Image credit: GHGSAT) “This was a very surprising and exciting finding; we have never detected such large methane emissions from a volcanic area before,” said Ilse Aben, Senior Scientist at SRON and TROPOMI co-principal investigator. Experts suggest the methane may stem from a shallow geothermal or hydrothermal reservoir beneath the volcano rather than direct magma degassing.
Impulsive X2.0 solar flare erupts from the Sun’s northwest limb - An impulsive solar flare measuring X2.0 erupted from Active Region 4001 at 19:27 UTC on February 23, 2025. The event started at 19:22 and ended at 19:34 UTC. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced but the location of this region does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. X2.0 solar flare on February 23, 2025. Credit: NASA SDO/AIA, Helioviewer, The Watchers This is the fourth and the strongest solar flare so far this year, following X1.2 on January 3, and X1.1 and X1.8 on January 4. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced, but the location of the responsible region on the northwest limb does not favor Earth-directed CMEs. However, the northwest limb favors solar radiation storms, meaning there is an increased chance of high-energy proton events from this and further activity of this region. The flare was associated with a short-lived R3–Strong radio blackout on the dayside of Earth, affecting high-frequency (HF) radio communication, particularly over the Pacific Ocean and parts of the Americas.
Long-duration M3.9 solar flare erupts with large CME off west limb - A long-duration M3.9 solar flare erupted from a region off the SW limb at 23:02 UTC on February 24, 2025, producing a large coronal mass ejection (CME) and triggering a minor solar radiation storm. While this CME is not Earth-directed, solar wind conditions have become enhanced yesterday, and geomagnetic activity may increase in the coming days. There is a 65% chance of an M-class flare through February 27 and a 25% chance of an X-class flare. CME produced by M3.9 solar flare on February 24, 2025. Image credit: NASA/ESA, LASCO C2 and C3, Helioviewer, The Watchers The event started at 21:50 and ended at 00:19 UTC on February 25. The flare was accompanied by Type IV and Type II (estimated velocity 641 km/s) radio emissions and a large coronal mass ejection (CME) off the WSW limb at 21:24 UTC. While the region’s position did not favor Earth-directed CMEs, it did result in a solar radiation storm. Proton flux began rising sharply around 23:20 UTC, reaching S1 – Minor solar radiation storm level at 00:20 UTC on February 25. The storm persisted at this level until 08:40 UTC on February 25. Solar wind conditions became enhanced after 21:00 UTC on February 23, likely due to the glancing influence of a CME that left the Sun on February 19. The total magnetic field strength (Bt) reached 16 nT, with the Bz component dropping as low as -10 nT. Solar wind speeds remained relatively low, fluctuating between 300 and 375 km/s for most of the period. At 08:00 UTC on February 24, the phi angle turned predominantly negative, followed by a solar sector boundary crossing into the positive sector at approximately 17:15 UTC. After this transition, solar wind parameters became further enhanced, with Bt reaching 18 nT and Bz dropping to -13 nT for a sustained period. Solar wind speeds began to rise, reaching 460 km/s. Negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influences are likely on February 25, along with residual glancing effects from the February 19 CME. A return to nominal solar wind conditions is expected on February 26–27.
Supernova radiation linked to virus evolution in Lake Tanganyika, Africa -
- A supernova explosion 2.5 million years ago may have influenced viral evolution in Lake Tanganyika by increasing cosmic radiation, potentially driving mutations in viruses infecting aquatic life.
- Researchers traced the explosion to the Upper Centaurus Lupus association, suggesting that heightened cosmic-ray exposure could have accelerated genetic changes in microorganisms with rapid adaptation cycles.
- Geological records indicate a surge in virus species infecting fish in Lake Tanganyika during the same period, aligning with the supernova event and raising questions about cosmic radiation’s role in biological evolution.
Researchers at the University of California, Santa Cruz, propose that cosmic radiation from the event drove mutations in viruses infecting aquatic life, leading to the emergence of new species.Understanding the impact of stellar explosions on Earth involves analyzing radioactive isotopes such as iron-60, which are ejected during a supernova and settle onto Earth’s surface. The deposits, found in deep-sea sediments, serve as timestamps marking past supernovae. Researchers have identified two major periods of heightened supernova activity, approximately 2.5 million and 6.5 million years ago. Astronomical modeling traced the more recent supernova to the Upper Centaurus Lupus association, about 140 parsecs (457 light-years) away. The explosion likely propelled energetic particles toward Earth, affecting the atmosphere and potentially influencing biological evolution. Supernovae alter planetary environments by stripping ozone, increasing radiation exposure, and potentially accelerating mutation rates in microorganisms which are highly adaptive to environmental changes.
Impact probability for asteroid 2024 YR4 drops to 0.0017%, moon impact at 1.7% - Asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact risk has dropped to 0.0017%, placing it a level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. There remains a 1.7% chance of the asteroid impacting the moon on December 22, 2032.The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped to 0.0017 %. Now that there’s only a 1 in 59 000 chance of the asteroid’s impact in 2032, the asteroid has dropped to a level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.According to NASA, there remains a 1.7% chance of the asteroid impacting the moon on December 22, 2032.Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on December 27, 2024. By late January, the impact risk of the asteroid was 1.2%, making it a level 3 on the Torino risk scale, which ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain global catastrophes).A level 3 classification indicates a close encounter meriting attention, with a probability of impact that could cause localized damage. Historically, asteroids initially rated at this level have often been downgraded as more data became available.2024 YR4, which was being dubbed the “city-killer,” followed the historical precedent as well — it first rose on the impact risk scale before getting downgraded.Visual representation of the rise and fall 2024 YR4’s impact probability. Image credit: ESA/Planetary Defense OfficeThe asteroid, which is estimated to be 40-90 m (130 to 295 feet) in diameter, rose to an impact risk of 1.8% on February 6 and later jumped to 2.6 % on February 18, jumping again to 2.8% on the same day.This meant the asteroid had surpassed the asteroid Apophis, which peaked at 2.7%, making it a level 4 on the Torino scale. The asteroid’s rising impact risk triggered planetary defense procedures, prompting space agencies to evaluate the potential response strategies.After peaking at 2.8%, the impact probability began to decrease as astronomers refined their calculations of the object’s trajectory. By February 21, 2024 YR4’s impact probability had dropped to 0.16%, effectively downgrading it to Level 1 on the Torino scale.
Every planet of our solar system is lining up in the February night sky - Seven planets grace the sky at the end of February in what's known as a planetary parade, though some will be difficult to spot with the naked eye. These planetary hangouts happen when several planets appear to line up in the night sky at once. They're not in a straight line, but are close together on one side of the sun. The astronomical linkup is fairly common and can happen at least every year depending on the number of planets. A parade of four or five planets visible to the naked eye happens every few years, according to NASA. A similar parade took place last June, but only two planets could be seen without any special equipment. Six planets were visible in January—four to the naked eye—and now a dim Mercury joins the gang. This month, Venus, Mars and Jupiter are visible to the naked eye. A faint Saturn and Mercury are close to the horizon, making them hard to spot. Uranus and Neptune can be glimpsed with binoculars and telescopes.
Why Carbon Emissions Will Fall Under Trump -In his first week back in office, President Trump removed the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord, ended restrictions on LNG exports, and bolstered the hydrocarbon industry in Alaska and nationally. Predictably, this has led left-of-center environmentalists to decry an existential climate emergency.When the Elon Musk-led so called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is added to the mix, the concern grows that legislative incentives and funding bills like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) or Infrastructure Investments and Jobs Act (IIJA) will be clawed back or rescinded. The upshot of all of this, according to the fearmongers, is that we are doomed to years of climate regression.I predict the opposite. I believe that by 2030, the impact of this administration will be less carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases. The simple reason: innovation.Historical context only underscores why this is likely. While CO2 emissions grew in the U.S. for a century, they peaked in 2005-2007 and for the last two decades have been on the decline. This conspicuous timing aligns not with a grand climate commitment but the revolution in hydraulic fracturing and the increased share of natural gas in the energy mix.President Trump’s plan to unleash oil and gas does not equate to greater emissions. The story of the 21st Century to date has been more efficient energy resources displacing less efficient ones. That has meant natural gas replacing coal – and with it, cutting respective energy emissions in half. A good amount of bad policy has also ensured coal’s demise, but the market spoke decisively alongside it to bring about the present reality.How can cutting government regulation and red tape reduce emissions? The conventional wisdom is that economic growth must in some sense be tied to emissions. After all, more output implies more factories churning out widgets and more industrial centers puffing through their smokestacks.Revisiting the 2005 to today, we can correlate a few items. The 2000 Census reflected a U.S. resident population of 281,421,906. By 2020, this became 331,449,281. Since 2020, the population has undoubtedly even increased. Despite this nearly 20% increase in population, the annual CO2 emissions fell by 20%. Serving this larger population with new power, water, internet, and roadways was more efficient over time, not necessitating greater emissions.What about DOGE and cutting red tape? Surely that will lead to dirtier air and water so say the critics. They claim that untethering the economic engine from government controls would be a recipe for emissions and pollutants. To start, the same period that saw CO2 emissions decline by 20% saw GDP rise from $13 trillion to exceed $25 trillion by 2022 – a 92% increase. It simply is not the case that larger population and more dynamic economy equates to higher emissions. Through American innovation, we observe the opposite.But if DOGE cuts red tape that was present during those years, how can we be assured emissions will not rise and the atmosphere become polluted. The answer is two-fold: first is simply that businesses have already made capital-intensive investments in compliance with those rules. The technology and assets already in place are clean, efficient, and powerful, they won’t be abandoned because the regulations go away. The second answer involves the nature of regulation. A favorite type of regulation for the environmental wing is ironically the very type of regulation that stifles innovation, restricts progress, and locks in inefficiency. Those are prescriptive regulations – a kind of rule, law, or incentive that details a practice, procedure, or even technology that must be used to achieve a given outcome. An energy-environmental example illustrates this well: to incentivize carbon dioxide removal, the government created the 45Q tax credit. Under the guise of being performance based, it incentivizes carbon capture technology to sequester CO2 – allowing measurable decreases in the greenhouse gas to be rewarded. But this performance-in-name-only incentive dulls innovation – it focuses exclusively on carbon dioxide gas and ignores any other way to decarbonize. As an outside-the-box innovative example, companies are currently employing technology to fully decarbonize natural gas at its point of use and without generating carbon dioxide emissions. In fact, one process pulls the carbon (C) off the methane molecule (CH4) leaving only clean hydrogen (H) and solid carbon (C) that is collected like a powder. The so-called performance-based tax credit never conceived that this was possible and failed to incentivize a more efficient process. One that yields two valuable co-products: clean hydrogen for power and industrial use and solid carbon to serve as a construction material to build and improve American infrastructure. If the outcome of Trump’s administration and the efforts of DOGE lead to more universal performance regulation across the administrative state and removal of prescriptive rules, the outcome would be greater innovation. That innovation would directly lead to greater safety, efficiency, and resilience of our nation’s infrastructure, supply chains, and industry. Part and parcel with that would be a reduction in emissions.So, with great optimism for the new administration, I confidently predict not only greater energy abundance and infrastructure resilience, but continued reduction in carbon emissions. The United States, through its greatest asset – its people – will unveil new innovative technology, practices, and procedures that enhance the safety, efficiency, and resilience of every industry, leading to a cleaner and healthier America.
POET, Tallgrass to Connect Nebraska Facility to CO2 Pipeline — POET and Tallgrass have entered into definitive agreements to link POET’s Fairmont, Nebraska bioprocessing facility with the Tallgrass Trailblazer carbon dioxide (CO2) pipeline. Under the arrangement, POET’s facility will capture bioCO2 for transport and permanent underground sequestration in Wyoming. Tallgrass is converting a natural gas pipeline, which has safely operated for over a decade, to transport CO2 to its sequestration site in Wyoming. This effort minimizes the need for new pipeline infrastructure. The Trailblazer project, currently under construction, is expected to begin commercial operations in 2025, enabling the near-term connection of POET Bioprocessing – Fairmont. Capturing and sequestering bioCO2 from bioethanol production reduces the carbon intensity of the final product, creating new market opportunities for Nebraska corn growers and bioethanol producers. By transporting and sequestering bioCO2, POET will benefit not only the farmers supplying the facility, but also the landowners hosting the pipeline and the local communities. Under the Trailblazer Community Benefits Agreement, POET’s involvement will direct additional funding to these stakeholders. “POET is excited to join the Tallgrass Trailblazer project,” said Jeff Broin, POET Founder and CEO. “Carbon capture is a tremendous opportunity to create significant value for farmers and bioethanol producers while strengthening rural communities and counties in Nebraska and across the Midwest. We believe this initiative—and similar carbon capture projects—will play an important role in unleashing even more opportunities for agriculture in the future.”
Carbon capture and storage: How to remove all carbon dioxide emissions everywhere all at once (click bait headline) - It is increasingly likely that we will not reach the 2030 targets for reducing CO₂ emissions, nor those set for 2050. As a result, many people are now arguing that we should instead focus our efforts on adapting to climate change, rather than obsessively trying to get it under control.However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has singled out an interesting, though complex, way to improve mitigation numbers: capturing, absorbing or removing CO₂ and storing it. But what exactly does this technique consist of, and is it feasible on a large scale?CO₂ was first stored, though unintentionally, underground in 1972 in Texas, U.S., in order to "pump" oil and encourage its extraction, a technique that is still often used today.A similar but much more advanced system led to the first major full-scale project of this sort in 1996: the Sleipner gas field in Norway. This facility aimed to reduce the impact of emissions by storing CO₂ extracted from natural gas at the bottom of the North Sea.This technology is part of what is known as carbon capture and storage (CCS). At the time of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, it was already being proposed as a way to reduce emissions in localized sources—in the chimneys of coal or gas-fired power plants, for instance. Since then, many companies and researchers have been developing carbon capture processes and looking for geological storage locations for CO₂. CCS technology has many detractors, with reasons ranging from its high coststo its alleged complicity in maintaining the use of fossil fuels. It therefore seems that this technology's future is linked to industries that are very difficult to decarbonize, such as the cement industry, where even production with "clean" energy generates large amounts of CO₂. In addition, a new concept called carbon dioxide removal (CDR) has emerged on a global level in the last few years. It is based on the simple principle that, when it comes to avoiding emissions, a draw is better than a loss, but a win is better than a draw. If CCS is a draw, then CDR technology can provide a win by achieving "negative emissions". The two most common variants of CDR today build on CCS technology. BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage), captures carbon after burning biomass in thermal power plants, while DACCS (direct air capture and carbon storage), captures CO₂ directly from the atmosphere. Both technologies are currently under development and so far their potential seems modest (0.1 % of annual emissions). In parallel, finding a use for CO₂ instead of burying it is also being considered for various applications, such asmanufacturing soft drinks.
Trump SEC Dumps Woke GHG Climate Disclosure Regulation -- Marcellus Drilling News -- -The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), corrupted by the Bidenistas, voted 3-2 (three Democrats vs. two Republicans) in March 2024 to issue a final regulation that will force all publicly traded companies to disclose their so-called greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the imaginary climate risks their businesses face (see Woke SEC Adopts Modified Version of Climate Disclosure Reg). The result of the Biden SEC’s regulations would be to “kneecap” oil and gas companies, which was by design (see SEC Reg Requiring Disclosure of Climate Change Risk “Kneecaps” O&G). Lawsuits ensued, delaying the implementation of the regulation (see The Many Lawsuits Challenging Woke SEC’s Climate Disclosure Reg). The good news is that Trump’s takeover of the SEC has reversed and canceled this “deeply flawed” regulation. Read More
EPA head urges Trump to reconsider scientific finding that underpins climate action, AP sources say (AP) — In a potential landmark action, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency has privately urged the Trump administration to reconsider a scientific finding that has long been the central basis for U.S. action against climate change. In a report to the White House, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin called for a rewrite of the agency’s finding that determined planet-warming greenhouse gases endanger public health and welfare, according to four people who were briefed on the matter but spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because the recommendation is not public. The 2009 finding under the Clean Air Act is the legal underpinning of a host of climate regulations for motor vehicles, power plants and other pollution sources. A spokesperson for the EPA on Wednesday declined to reveal Zeldin’s recommendation, which was made last week under an executive order from Republican President Donald Trump. The order, issued on Trump’s first day in office, directed the EPA to submit a report “on the legality and continuing applicability” of the endangerment finding. The Washington Post first reported that Zeldin had urged the White House to strike down the endangerment finding. The Obama-era finding “is the linchpin of the federal government’s policies for what the president and I call the climate hoax,” said Steve Milloy, a former Trump transition adviser who disputes mainstream science on climate change. U “If you pull this (finding) out, everything EPA does on climate goes away,” Milloy told the AP.
Falcon-9 debris lights up European skies before crashing into Poland - A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket’s upper stage made an uncontrolled re-entry into Earth’s atmosphere over Europe on February 19, 2025, creating a bright display across the night sky before debris impacted multiple locations in Poland. SpaceX's Falcon-9 rocket debris dazzles European skies before crashing into Poland february 19 2025 Image credit: Berlin The second stage of the Falcon 9 rocket from the Starlink Group 11-4 mission failed to deorbit as planned on February 2, re-entering the atmosphere on February 19. It was visible across European skies after entering over the Irish Sea at 03:43 UTC The rocket debris was sighted across Denmark, Sweden, Germany, and England, with its re-entry track extending to Poland and Ukraine. The event was confirmed by the Polish Space Agency (POLSA), which reported that the rocket, weighing approximately 4 tons, belonged to the SpaceX Starlink Group 11-4 mission, launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on February 1, 2025. POLSA stated that the trajectory of the object was known to them and other responsible services in Europe, which were monitoring the risk of artificial space objects entering the Earth’s atmosphere. Pieces of the rocket were recovered in Poland, with experts suggesting that some debris may have also landed in Ukraine. According to the BBC, a piece of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket was discovered on February 19 in Komorniki, Poland, where Adam Borucki found a large piece of the rocket measuring approximately 1.5 x 1 m (5 x 3.3 feet) behind his property. The exact time of discovery is unclear, though Polish police were notified around 9:20 a.m. local time (08:20 UTC), according to the Poznań Police. He reported that some electrical items and a concrete block stored in his warehouse were also damaged. Polish police stated that a similar piece of debris was found in a forest near the village of Wiry. Falcon 9 rockets are designed to be reusable. Only the first stage, or booster, is intended to return to Earth in a controlled manner, landing on a droneship, at a SpaceX facility, or in the ocean far from inhabited areas. The second stage, or upper part of the rocket, is responsible for entering orbit and deploying the payloads, which in this case were Starlink satellites. This stage is designed to deorbit and safely burn up in the atmosphere, but this did not occur as intended. “It was supposed to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere in a controlled manner and crash into the Pacific Ocean,” Harvard University astrophysicist Dr. Jonathan McDowell told the BBC. “But the engine failed. We’ve been tracking it orbiting Earth for the past few weeks and anticipated an uncontrolled re-entry today, which is what people saw burning in the sky.” The debris traveled at approximately 27 360 km/h (17 000 mph), passing over England and parts of Scandinavia before impacting Poland.
Trump says Zeldin plans to cut up to 65 percent of EPA staff -- President Trump said Wednesday that Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin has floated cutting the agency’s workforce by up to 65 percent.Speaking at the inaugural Cabinet meeting of his second term, Trump said Zeldin “thinks he’s going to be cutting 65 or so percent of the people from environmental. And we’re going to speed up the process, too, at the same time.”Zeldin, a former New York congressman, was present at the meeting Wednesday.The EPA has a permanent staff of 17,202 as well as 1,540 temporary workers, according to the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.Trump’s comments come amid wide-reaching job cuts across federal agencies, with more reportedly coming including at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The cuts have largely targeted probationary employees, which applies to both recent hires and those who have recently received promotions, and many agencies have scrambled to rehire some personnel.On Feb. 11, the president signed an executive order directing widespread federal layoffs, prompting a lawsuit by six unions representing government workers. On Wednesday, the Office of Personnel Management issued more specific guidance directing federal agencies to turn over layoff plans by March 13.The job cuts would be the latest of several sweeping changes the EPA chief has made at the agency since assuming leadership, many of them aimed at reversing Biden-era efforts to mitigate climate change and promote renewable energy.
PA Senate Budget Hearing Discusses Firing Some DEP Employees -- Marcellus Drilling News -- The Pennsylvania Senate Appropriations Committee held a budget hearing yesterday in Harrisburg. The Department of Environmental Protection’s Acting Secretary Jessica Shirley was on the hot seat. Although many topics were discussed, Senators were most interested in speeding permit reviews, Governor Shapiro’s Lightning Energy Plan, and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) carbon tax Shapiro insists on inflicting on the state. A key topic that caught our attention was a call for Shirley to fire “intractable” DEP employees. The discussion echoed DOGE (the Department of Government Efficiency headed by Elon Musk).
PA DEP Can’t Wait to Give Away $396M of “Restored” $2.1B from Feds -- Marcellus Drilling News -- As we reported two days ago, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, acting like a junkie cut off from his drugs, finally got the Trump administration to restart the flow of drugs (i.e., money) that had been paused to give Elon Musk’s DOGErs a chance to ensure the payments are legit (see PA Gov. Claims Victory in Un-Pausing $2B in Energy-Related Pymts). Much of the money was earmarked for environmental programs. No sooner had the spigots reopened than Shapiro and his Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) began advertising that they have $396 million burning a hole in their pockets.
EPA to make higher-ethanol gas available year round beginning in April -The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will proceed with Biden-era plans to allow the year-round sale of higher-ethanol E15 fuel, a longtime ask of midwestern lawmakers and the biofuels industry. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said the agency would maintain the agreed-upon date of April 28 to make the fuel available in eight states. The governors of Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin had requested waivers to sell the fuel throughout the year rather than only the high-demand summer months. The governors had pushed for year-round E15 going back to 2022, when gas prices and energy prices in general spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine. Iowa and Nebraska sued to compel the agency to offer the fuel year-round in 2023. “Today’s decision underscores EPA’s commitment to consumer access to E15 while ensuring a smooth transition for fuel suppliers and refiners,” Zeldin said in a statement. “Our approach provides certainty for states that are ready to move forward with year-round E15 while accommodating those that requested additional time. We will continue working with all stakeholders to ensure available and affordable fuel supply.” The Biden administration first announced last February that the fuel would be available year round starting this year, first proposing it in 2023. The announcement marks a rare moment of continuity between the Biden and Trump EPA, the latter of which has both begun the process of winding back several Biden-era environmental rules and signaled it will not disburse some Inflation Reduction Act funds. The Renewable Fuels Association (RFA), the primary trade group for the ethanol industry, praised the announcement but called for Congress to pass legislation allowing for the year-round sale. “While the legislative solution is strongly preferred by all, we were also encouraged to see EPA is considering issuing emergency waivers to allow the uninterrupted sale of E15 nationwide this summer if Congress fails to act. Let’s hope that won’t be necessary,” RFA President Geoff Cooper said in a statement.
US EPA will delay Midwest ethanol expansion in South Dakota, Ohio (Reuters) - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Friday it would delay an action by one year to expand sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline in South Dakota and Ohio, two of eight Midwestern states that requested the agency approve increased sales of the product. The EPA's statement on Friday follows its decision last week to uphold an April 28 implementation date for the request from eight Midwest governors to allow year-round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, a blend known as E15. States had until February 26 to seek a one-year delay. The EPA's implementation will now only apply to Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, and Wisconsin - after South Dakota and Ohio opted for the delay. The EPA's expansion is meant to enable both E15 and the more widely available E10 fuel blends to be sold during the summer, where the existing policy often keeps E15 out of the market. While biofuel producers have long wanted expanded sales of the E15 blend, they would prefer a nationwide solution that goes beyond just the Midwest region. The oil trade group the American Petroleum Institute also prefers a nationwide policy, as some industry players worry a fragmented market could lead to localized supply disruptions. Kansas, which was not among the eight states addressed in the final rule, had submitted a similar request to Ohio and South Dakota's petition for a one-year delay, the EPA said on Friday. "Earlier this month, (Kansas Governor Laura Kelly) expressed continued interest in a temporary Gasoline Volatility Waiver for the upcoming summer months as she has in previous years," Kelly's spokesperson Grace Hoge told Reuters. "While Kansas did not request to be included in recent actions taken by other Midwest states, Governor Kelly remains committed to addressing this critical issue and will continue advocating for a federal solution that empowers consumers with the freedom to select their preferred fuel type."
Power Plants Closing in 2025 Include 8.1 GW Coal, 2.6 GW NatGas --U.S. power generators plan to retire about 8.1 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power generation capacity this year, roughly double the amount that was retired in 2024, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday. In addition, power generators plan to retire 2.6 GW of U.S. natural gas capacity, representing 0.5% of the natural gas fleet in operation at the end of 2024. The natural gas plants are older (less efficient) simple-cycle plants.
In a reversal, plans for U.S. natural gas power grow, complicating progress on climate (AP) — A spike in demand for electricity from tech companies competing in the artificial intelligence race is upending forecasts for natural gas-fired power in the U.S., as utilities reconsider it as a major new power source. That is not what many scientists and climate activists envisioned in the fight against climate change. And it is endangering progress on the greenhouse gas-reduction goals that scientists say are necessary to manage the damage from burning fossil fuels that warms the planet. Across the nation, tech companies are snapping up real estate and seeking new power projects to feed their energy-hungry operations. In some cases, Big Tech is building climate-friendlier projects like solar, wind, geothermal or battery storage. But industry decision-makers are also turning to natural gas for what they say is a cheap and reliable source of power, raising the prospect that gas-fired power will play a bigger role — and for a longer period of time — than even they had anticipated. “Gas is growing faster now and in the medium term than ever before,” said Corianna Mah, a power and renewables analyst at data analytics firm Enverus. Before the spike in electricity demand last year, many in the industry had assumed that there would be few new gas plants and that the nation's fleet would gradually retire in favor of a grid powered by wind, solar, geothermal, batteries and possibly the next generation of nuclear power — sources that don't emit the planet-warming greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. For many countries, that ramp down is happening as they work toward the goal of slashing their emissions to zero — or at least, net zero — by 2050, which scientists say could help the world avoid the worst effects of climate change. In the U.S., the electric power sector is the second-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, according to government figures. And the construction of every new natural gas plant — built to last for decades — is a setback for climate goals, said John Quigley, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Kleinman Center for Energy Policy. “At a top level, we will not get to net zero by 2050 if we are building new gas plants. Period,” Quigley said. Burning natural gas emits carbon dioxide, and before that, when it escapes from wellheads or pipelines in its unburned form, it's an even more potent greenhouse gas called methane. Quigley and others say there is enough solar, wind and battery storage projects on the drawing board to satisfy growing electricity demand. But, they say, utilities and grid operators lack the will to abandon natural gas. Enverus now projects the next five years will bring roughly 46 gigawatts of gas-fired power online. That compares to 39 gigawatts in the past five years, it said. Announcements last year alone include:
- — two 705-megawatt plants by Evergy in Kansas;
- — Entergy's 2,300-megawatt plant to serve Meta’s $10 billion AI data center in northern Louisiana, a pair of new plants in Texas and another in Mississippi;
- — a 1,450-megawatt plant by the Tennessee Valley Authority;
- — a 1,400 megawatt Duke Energy project in North Carolina;
- — and Georgia Power's plans for three oil or gas units with a capacity of up to 1,300 megawatts.
And that’s not all. Calpine said it's exploring new gas-fired capacity in the congested mid-Atlantic region, especially Pennsylvania and Ohio, where analysts say the grid operator is trying to fast-track new gas-fired power plants into service. In Pennsylvania, the former Homer City coal-fired power plant is being transformed into a massive gas-fired station that's expected to supply a data center — and got a $5 million state grant to do it. On top of the artificial intelligence boom, the frenzy for new electricity is fueled by cryptomining, the broader electrification of society and a bipartisan push to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. It is coinciding with the closure of coal plants and aging nuclear plants, unable to compete with cheaper gas, solar and wind. Across the U.S., gas pipeline operators are exuberant about the new demand and are reporting strong interest in extending their lines.
Demand for Electricity Takes Off. US Power Generation by Source in 2024: Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Wind, Hydro, Solar, Geothermal, Biomass, Petroleum by Wolf Richter -- The quantity of electricity generated in the US by all sources, from natural gas to rooftop solar, rose by 3.1% in 2024 from 2023 to a record of 4,304,039 gigawatt-hours (GWh), according to data from the EIA today. This is now clearly a breakout in demand, after 14 years of stagnation, from 2007 through 2021, when electricity users, to reduce their costs, invested in more efficient equipment – lights, appliances, electronic equipment, industrial equipment, heating and air-conditioning, etc. – and in better building insulation, shading, etc., to reduce their power costs. This relentless drive for greater efficiency kept demand roughly stable for years despite the growing economy and population. And it mired many power generators and electric utilities in a no-growth business where it was difficult to justify investment. Now the scenario has changed, largely due to the growth in demand from data centers (AI, cloud, crypto) and the increasing penetration of EVs in the national vehicle fleet – EVs accounted for over 10% of US vehicle sales in 2024. The share of total electricity generated by source: Natural gas rules. Power generation from natural gas rose by 3.3% to a record of 1,864,874 GWh in 2024. The share of natural gas as source for power generation remained roughly unchanged in 2024, matching the record of 42.7% of 2023, about double its share in 2007. Natural gas had surpassed nuclear in 2006 and coal in 2016 (blue in the chart below). The US is the largest natural gas producer and the largest LNG exporter in the word. Production has oversupplied the US market and has caused the price of natural gas to collapse since 2009. The modern combined-cycle gas turbine powerplants have a thermal efficiency of around 65%, nearly double that of older coal powerplants. These two – low price of US natural gas and the high efficiency of the combined-cycle plants – made natural gas immensely attractive for power generators. Coal power generation fell by 3.3% to 652,760 GWh in 2024. Its share dropped to a record low of 14.9% of total power generation, down from 51% in 2001 (black in the chart below). Coal cannot compete with cheap natural gas and the efficiency of a combined-cycle gas turbine powerplant. More recently, wind power became more cost-efficient than coal. It all boils down to costs. Gas is cheap. With renewables, the “fuel” is free; and all methods of power generation require costly plants, equipment, maintenance. Power generators have not built any new coal-fired power plants over the past decade. They’re too inefficient and expensive to operate. And they’ve been retiring their old inefficient and expensive-to-operate coal-fired power plants. In 2025, of the 12.3 Gigawatts (GW) of capacity that power generators plan to retire, 66% are old coal-fired plants, 21% are old natural-gas-fired plants, 13% are old petroleum-fired plants. Generation from all renewables combined – wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, and biomass – rose by 3.1% to a record 1,061,258 GWh, driven by surging generation from wind (+7.7%) and solar (+26.9%). The share of all renewables combined increased to 24.2% of total power generation (red). More on them separately in a moment. Nuclear power generation edged up 0.9% to 781,979 GWh, and its share edged down to 17.8% of total generation (green). The share of petroleum liquids and petroleum coke declined to 0.3%, having nearly vanished as source of power generation. The planned retirements this year will further reduce generation (purple). Power generation from renewables. Wind power generation jumped by 7.7% in 2024, to a record 453,454 GWh. Its share grew to 10.3% of total power generation (red in the chart below). The Big Five states for utility-scale wind-power generation in 2023, according to separate EIA data, in GWh and % share of US wind power generation:
- Texas: 119,836 GWh, 28%
- Iowa: 41,869 GWh, 10%
- Oklahoma: 37,731 GWh, 9%
- Kansas: 27,462 GWh, 6.5%
- Illinois: 22,054 GWh, 5%
Solar power generation – utility scale and rooftop solar – surged 26.9% to 303,167 GWh. Its share ballooned to 6.9% of the total power generated, surpassing hydropower (yellow). Wind and solar combined had a share of 17.2% of total power production in the US, a higher share than coal, and close to nuclear. Power generation from small-scale solar – such as rooftop systems on homes, retail stores, parking garages, etc. – jumped 15.3% to 84,630 GWh, for a share of 1.9% of total power generated in 2024. Hydropower generation dipped 1.1% to 242,226 GWh. Its share declined to 5.5% of total power generation (blue). Biomass power generation declined 1.0% to 46,740 GWh, and its share eased to 1.1% of total power generated. Biomass includes wood and wood-derived fuels, landfill gas, and other waste biomass (black). Geothermal remained at a minuscule share of 0.4% of total power generated. Most geothermal plants were built in the 1970s in California (green).
Palisades nuclear plant agrees to build small modular reactors in Michigan — A closed nuclear plant on the shores of Lake Michigan is aiming to construct the first small modular reactor in the U.S. by 2030.The owner of the Palisades nuclear plant, Holtec International, signed a strategic agreement with Hyundai Engineering and Construction on Tuesday to build a 10-gigawatt fleet of small modular reactors in North America, starting with two units at the Palisades site. Holtec is aiming to bring the original Palisades reactor back online in October subject to approval by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. It would be the first restart of a closed nuclear plant in U.S. history. Holtec's small modular reactor design has not been licensed by the NRC yet. There are no operational small modular reactors in the U.S. Holtec is one of many companies that hope to receive approval from federal regulators to build such reactors.Holtec's design aims to reduce the capital costs and long construction timelines that have plagued large nuclear projects. The nuclear industry hopes such reactors will create greater flexibility in where plants can be built, and reduce construction costs by prefabricating components and then assembling them on the site. The tech industry has shown interest in these types of reactors, with Alphabet and Amazon announcing investments in the technology last October as they search for carbon-free energy to power their artificial intelligence data centers. Alphabet and its partner, Kairos Power, aim to bring their first SMR online by 2030. Amazon and its partners are targeting the 2030s.The NRC has licensed only one small modular reactor design in the U.S. so far. The designer NuScale Power tried to build the reactors in Idaho but the project was ultimately canceled in 2023 due to cost overruns.The power industry is closely monitoring the Palisades project as a potential model to expand nuclear energy in the U.S., after years of decline, by restarting decommissioned plants and then expanding them with smaller, advanced reactor technology. The Palisades plant permanently closed in 2022, part of a wave of reactor shutdowns as nuclear struggled to compete against cheap natural gas. Palisades started commercial operations in 1971. The plant has a generating capacity of 800 megawatts, enough to power hundreds of thousands of homes. The two 300-megawatt small modular reactors would nearly double the plant's capacity.Constellation Energy was following the work at Palisades before launching its effort to restart the closed Three Mile Island nuclear plant in 2028 through a power agreement withMicrosoft. NextEra Energy is considering restarting theDuane Arnold nuclear plant in Iowa.Holtec's plans to restart Palisades, however, are running into challenges after inspections found more than 1,000 steam generator tubes with indications of corrosion cracking, according to a filing with NRC.The number of repairs needed are higher than what Holtec initially anticipated based on the steam generator's history, said Nick Culp, a spokesman for the company. Holtec has brought in a third-party consultant that specializes in a repair method called "sleeving," Culp said. A liner is inserted into the damaged tubes to reinforce and seal them.Culp said Holtec anticipates the repair work, which is subject to NRC approval, will be done midsummer. NRC staff pushed back on the company's schedule during a Jan. 14 meeting.Holtec's schedule is "very, very demanding," Eric Reichelt, a senior materials engineer at the NRC, told the company's representatives at the meeting. Reichelt said there are only a few people available at the NRC to do the work that Holtec is requesting."This is a very aggressive schedule," NRC branch chief Steve Bloom told Holtec. Residents of Covert also expressed concern about the restart during the meeting.Holtec has received a $1.5 billion loan from the Department of Energy and $300 million in grants from the state of Michigan to support the project.
Westinghouse sees path to building big nuclear reactors more cheaply - Expanding two power plants in Georgia and South Carolina with big, new reactors was supposed to spark a "nuclear renaissance" in the U.S. after a generation-long absence of new construction. Instead, Westinghouse Electric Co.'s state-of-the-art AP1000 design resulted in long delays and steep cost overruns, culminating in its bankruptcy in 2017. The fall of Westinghouse was a major blow for an industry that the company had helped usher in at the dawn of the nuclear age. It was Westinghouse that designed the first reactor to enter commercial service in the U.S., at Shippingport, Pennsylvania, in 1957. Two new AP1000 reactors at Plant Vogtle near Augusta, Georgia, started operating in 2023 and 2024, turning the plant into the largest energy generation site of any kind in the nation and marking the first new operational nuclear reactor design in 30 years. But the reactors came online seven years behind schedule and $18 billion over budget. In the wake of Westinghouse's bankruptcy, utilities in South Carolina stopped construction in 2017 on two reactors at the V.C. Summer plant near Columbia after sinking $9 billion into the project. But today, interest in new nuclear power is reviving as the tech sector seeks reliable, carbon-free electricity to power its artificial intelligence ambitions, especially against China. Westinghouse emerged from bankruptcy in 2018 and wasacquired by Canadian uranium miner Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management in November 2023.The changed environment means South Carolina sees an opportunity to finish the two reactors left partially built at V.C. Summer eight years ago. The state's Santee Cooper public utility in January began seeking a buyer for the site to finish reactor construction, citing data center demand as one of the reasons to move ahead."We are extraordinarily bullish on the case for V.C. Summer," Dan Lipman, president of energy systems at Westinghouse, told CNBC in an interview. "We think completing that asset is vital, doable, economic, and we will do everything we can to assist Santee Cooper and the state of South Carolina with implementing a decision that results in the completion of the site."The United States has tried to revive nuclear power for a quarter century, but the two reactors in Georgia mark the only entirely new construction across that period despite bipartisan support under every president from George W. Bush to Donald Trump.A fresh start was supposed to have begun more than a decade ago, but was choked off by a wave of closures of older reactors as nuclear struggled to compete against a boom of cheap natural gas created by the shale revolution."We went from an environment in the aughts of rising gas imports and rising gas prices to fracking technology unlocking quite a bit of affordable natural gas here in the U.S., and companies didn't really value the firm clean attribute of nuclear back then," said John Kotek of the Nuclear Energy Institute, an industry lobby group, and former assistant secretary at the Office of Nuclear Energy under President Barack Obama.What's different in 2025 is the tech sector's voracious appetite for power translating into a willingness to pay a premium for nuclear. But recent investments in nuclear have focused on restarting abandoned reactors and attempting to bring online smaller, next-generation modular reactors that many believe are the future, if they can be designed and built more cheaply.The troubled nuclear plant at Three Mile Island near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania that almost melted down in 1979 is expected to resume operations in 2028 after ownerConstellation Energy struck a power purchase agreement with Microsoft last September. Constellation wants to restart Unit 1, which shut for economic reasons in 2019, not the Unit 2 reactor that was the site of the accident.Alphabet and Amazon invested in small nuclear reactors a month later. Meta Platforms, owner of Facebook and Instagram, asked developers in December to submit proposals for up to 4 gigawatts of new nuclear power to meet the energy needs of its data centers.But while the recent focus in the U.S. has been on restarts and commercializing small reactors, Lipman said the extent of potential demand that has emerged from data centers over the past year has led to renewed interest in Westinghouse's large AP1000 reactor design.In any event, there are no operational small reactors in the U.S. today, though startups and industry stalwarts, including Westinghouse, are racing to commercialize the technology. And there only so many shuttered plants in the U.S. in good enough shape to potentially be restarted. Meanwhile, meeting the demand for power is a gargantuan undertaking. Meta's need for new nuclear power, for example, is nearly equivalent to the entire 4.8 gigawatts of generating capacity at the Vogtle plant, enough to power more than 2 million homes and businesses. Large nuclear plants with a gigawatt or more of capacity — the size of the AP1000 — will be essential to power large industrial sites like data centers because of their economies of scale and low production costs once they're up and running, according to a recent Department of Energy report.
Iran accelerating near-weapons-grade plutonium production: Watchdog -- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran is taking steps to accelerate its near weapons-grade uranium in a broader effort to expand its capability for nuclear warfare, according to the watchdog’s latest report. As of Feb. 8, Iran had 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 percent according to The Associated Press who reviewed the confidential report. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran is taking steps to accelerate its near weapons-grade uranium in a broader effort to expand its capability for nuclear warfare, according to the watchdog’s latest report. As of Feb. 8, Iran had 274.8 kilograms (605.8 pounds) of uranium enriched up to 60 percent according to The Associated Press who reviewed the confidential report.According to the IAEA, approximately 42 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium is theoretically enough to produce one atomic bomb, if enriched further to 90 percent.“The significantly increased production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon State to produce such nuclear material, is of serious concern,” the IAEA report read as reported by AP.Iran has not accepted oversight from the organization’s agency inspectors, who have sought to monitor the nation’s nuclear developments since September 2023. Earlier this month, President Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum effectively denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon and giving the Treasury and State departments approval to impose necessary sanctions to limit their advancements. However, the president did outline the possibility of a nuclear peace deal with the nation a day later. “I want Iran to be a great and successful Country, but one that cannot have a Nuclear Weapon. Reports that the United States, working in conjunction with Israel, is going to blow Iran into smithereens ARE GREATLY EXAGGERATED,” he wrote on Truth Social.
KeyBanc initiates INR stock with Overweight, $26 target - Investing.com = On Tuesday, KeyBanc Capital Markets began coverage on Natural Resources (NYSE:INR) by assigning an Overweight rating and a price target of $26.00. The firm highlighted the company’s position as a high-growth, self-funding exploration and production (E&P) entity with exposure to both the dry gas and oil windows of western Appalachia’s resource plays.The research firm pointed out that Natural Resources stands out as one of the few pure-play investments in the oil window of the Utica Shale. This particular shale play has received renewed interest following EOG’s entry in 2022. KeyBanc’s analysis suggests that EOG’s communication with investors and a series of 25 strong well results have significantly raised investor awareness about the potential of this region.According to KeyBanc, the successful messaging and demonstrated well performance by EOG have set the stage for Natural Resources to pursue a public listing. The firm’s initiation of coverage reflects a positive outlook on the company’s growth prospects and its strategic positioning within the energy sector. InvestingPro analysis shows the company operates with a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.44 and has been profitable over the last twelve months, though its current ratio of 0.84 suggests tight liquidity management.The Overweight rating indicates that KeyBanc analysts expect Natural Resources to outperform the average total return of the stocks covered by the firm over the next six to twelve months. The $26.00 price target represents a significant potential upside from the company’s current trading levels.Natural Resources’ focus on the Utica Shale’s oil window is particularly noteworthy as it represents a specialized segment of the market that has seen increased activity and investment in recent times. The company’s ability to grow and fund its operations internally is also seen as a strength in the current economic environment. Recent market data from InvestingPro shows the stock has declined 7.58% over the past week and trades near its 52-week low of $18.47, potentially presenting an interesting entry point for investors. InvestingPro subscribers can access 8 additional key insights about Natural Resources’ financial health and market position.
Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. to Participate in Raymond James 46th Annual Institutional Investors Conference - Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE: INR) announced today that it will be attending the Raymond James 46th Annual Institutional Investors Conference to be held on March 2 - 5, 2025 in Orlando, Florida.In attendance from the Company will be Zack Arnold, President and CEO, David Sproule, EVP and CFO, and Gregory Pipkin Jr., Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy. The investor presentation that will be used in meetings will be posted to the investor relations site athttps://ir.infinitynaturalresources.com/ ahead of the Company’s first meeting. Infinity is a growth oriented, free cash flow generating, independent energy company focused on the acquisition, development, and production of hydrocarbons in the Appalachian Basin. Our operations are focused on the volatile oil window of the Utica Shale in eastern Ohio as well as our stacked dry gas assets in both the Marcellus and Utica Shales in southwestern Pennsylvania.
IOG Resources II Buys Non-Op Utica Shale Interests -- IOG Resources II acquired non-operated working interests in Appalachia’s Utica shale, the company said Feb. 26.The acquisition from an undisclosed seller includes 175 developed wellbores and4,500 net acres in eastern Ohio. Net production currently averages about 26 MMcfe/d. Operators on the acquired assets include Antero Resources, Encino Energy, EOG Resources, EQT Corp., Expand Energy and Gulfport Energy.The deal represents the fifth acquisition made by IOG Resources II, which was raised in 2022. The IOG energy investment platform has been sponsored by private equity firm First Reserve since 2017.Financial terms of the Utica acquisition were not disclosed.Last year, Civitas Resources sold Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin assets to IOG Resources II for an undisclosed amount. The assets included 1,480 developed and undeveloped wellbores, primarily in Weld County, Colorado. Production averaged 4,700 boe/d.
IOG Resources Raises Production Stakes in Appalachia - IOG Resources has acquired non-operating working interests in the Utica shale, raising its net production in the Appalachian Basin by about 26 million cubic feet of natural gas equivalent a day (MMcfed). The purchase consisted of around 175 developed wellbores and approximately 4,500 net acres of leasehold in Ohio, one of the three main gas-producing states in the Appalachian Basin alongside Pennsylvania and West Virginia according to the Energy Information Administration. The Dallas, Texas-based energy investment platform did not disclose the seller or the purchase price. IOG Resources, which made the acquisition through IOG Resources II LLC (IOGR II), said in an online statement production from the assets is “under top-tier operators including Antero, Encino, EOG, EQT, Expand and Gulfport”. “The acquisition represents the fifth investment made by IOGR II, which was raised in 2022, and the seventeenth investment for the IOG Resources platform”, it added. IOG Resources has two platforms, the other being IOG Resources LLC (IOGR I). IOG Resources has made five “significant” acquisition transactions involving non-operated stakes at an average purchase price of about $90 million since 2021, it says on its website. IOG Resources targets onshore assets in the Lower 48, or the contiguous United States. It had about 24,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) of production and about 1,800 wells - spread in the Permian, Utica, Marcellus, DJ, Mid-Continent and Eagle Ford - as of January 2025. Last year IOGR II obtained working and royalty stakes in the DJ Basin from Civitas Resources Inc. The assets comprised about 1,480 developed and undeveloped wellbores mainly in Weld County, Colorado. “Current net production is approximately 4.7 mboe/d under top-tier operators including Occidental Petroleum and Chevron Corporation”, IOG Resources said in a press release May 6, 2024. On March 30, 2023, IOG Resources announced a deal with an unnamed company to buy non-operated Appalachian assets with a net production of about 24 MMcfed. The acquisition included 66 producing wellbores and 7,000 net acres primarily in Carroll County, Ohio, and Butler County, Pennsylvania. In 2022 it acquired stakes in the Marcellus shale, part of the Appalachian Basin, and the Delaware Basin, a Permian sub-basin. The Marcellus acquisition from Seneca Resources Co. LLC, part of National Fuel Gas Co., consisted of non-operated wellbores primarily in the counties of Clearfield, Elk and McKean in Pennsylvania. The assets had a net production of about 17 MMcfd. “The acquisition represents the initial investment for IOGR II, the successor platform to IOG Resources, LLC”, IOG Resources said November 22, 2022. The Delaware Basin acquisition from Tier 1 Merced Holdings LLC consisted of non-operated wellbores, primarily in the New Mexico counties of Eddy and Lea. “With this acquisition, IOGR adds net production of approximately 3,800 boe/d under top-tier operators including Devon, Conoco, and Marathon”, IOG Resources said March 3, 2022. In 2021 it acquired non-operating stakes in 77 producing horizontal wells from Sequel Energy Group LLC. The assets, operated by Southwestern Energy Co. and Ascent Resources, had a net production of about 75 MMcfed, as announced March 3, 2021. IOG Resources, formed 2014, says it has been “sponsored” by First Reserve Corp. since 2017. Stamford, Connecticut-based First Reserve, which lists IOG Resources as a portfolio company, says on its website, “IOG Resources, LLC [IOGR I] and IOG Resources II, LLC are non-operated exploration and production companies focused on partnering with operators to provide drilling capital to acquire working interests in oil and natural gas assets across multiple core hydrocarbon basins in North America (each distinct asset investment a Development JV or PDP acquisition)”.
PA 2024 Report: Production Down 3.7%, Wells Drilled Lowest in 16 Yrs -Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office (IFO) released its latest quarterly Natural Gas Production Report for October through December 2024 (full copy below). There were 84 new horizontal wells spud (drilled) in 4Q24, a decrease of 26 wells (-24%) compared to 4Q23. However, 4Q’s spud number increased from the 63 drilled in the prior quarter, 3Q24. Natural gas production volume was 1,869 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in 4Q24, up 30 Bcf (1.6%) from 1,839 Bcf produced in 3Q24. There were two pieces of big news in this report: (1) Production for all of 2024 went down 3.7% from 2023; (2) 310 wells were drilled in 2024, less than any year since 2008.
PA State Sen. Muth Tries to Block Shale Drilling Via Landfill Ban - Marcellus Drilling News - Pennsylvania State Senator Katie Muth (Democrat from Berks, Chester, and Montgomery counties) is clever and dedicated in her mission to halt shale drilling in the Keystone State. We've written plenty about Muth over the years (see our stories here). She's attempted to block shale wastewater treatment facilities from getting built. She has a new target: To block shale cuttings---the leftover rock and dirt from drilling a hole in the ground---from being disposed of at landfills. Her approach is to block it based on leachate that comes from landfills.
PA DEP Still Spends 5X More to Plug Orphaned Wells Than Other States -- Marcellus Drilling News -- We explored an important issue last September—the ballooning cost of plugging orphaned oil and gas wells in Pennsylvania (see PA DEP Spending WAY Too Much to Plug Abandoned/Orphaned Wells). As a reminder, abandoned wells are those with no production for at least 12 months in a row. Orphaned wells were abandoned before 1985, and the owner is unknown, so the responsibility for plugging them rests with the state. The problem is that when the state runs the program and must conform to federal employment regulations (to use federal funds), the per-well cost to plug wells goes through the roof. The cost PA is paying (continues to pay) to plug wells is roughly five times as much as other states. What the heck is going on?
Trump Army Corps IDs Dozens of M-U Projects for Emergency Review -Marcellus Drilling News -- On President Trump’s very first day in office, he signed an executive order called “Declaring a National Energy Emergency” (see Trump EO Declares National Energy Emergency – “Drill, Baby, Drill!”). Trump’s EO prioritizes completing energy infrastructure projects, like pipelines. It specifically talks about the Clean Water Act’s Sections 403 and 404, which states like New York have used to block new pipelines. The EO contains this sentence: “Agencies are directed to use, to the fullest extent possible and consistent with applicable law, the emergency Army Corps of Engineers permitting provisions to facilitate the Nation’s energy supply.” The Army Corps recently marked for fast-track review more than 600 applications for permits. A number of them (dozens) are for shale wells and pipelines in the Marcellus/Utica region.
Fed Judge Tosses Landowner Lawsuit Against DRBC for Frack Ban -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Earlier this month U.S. District Judge Robert D. Mariani dismissed the Wayne Land and Mineral Group (WLMG) v. Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) lawsuit that argued the DRBC had “taken” the property rights of landowners in eastern Pennsylvania, robbing them of their right to allow shale drilling on and under their land. It’s a sad and bitter end for landowners in PA’s Wayne and Pike counties where there is bountiful Marcellus shale waiting to be extracted.
14 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Feb 17 – 23 -- Marcellus Drilling News - For the week of Feb 17 – 23, the number of permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica to drill new shale wells fell back to earth. Three weeks ago, 24 new permits were issued. Two weeks ago, the number increased to 36 new permits. Last week the number deflated, going down to 14. The Keystone State (PA) issued six new permits last week, with all six going to Blackhill Energy for a single pad in Bradford County. ANTERO RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | BLACKHILL ENERGY | BRADFORD COUNTY | BROOKE COUNTY | DODDRIDGE COUNTY | ENERGY COMPANIES | SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY
Trump Intent on Building Constitution Pipeline from PA into NY & New England -- Marcellus Drilling News --Two weeks ago, MDN brought you the exciting news that President Trump pledged to get the long-dead Pennsylvania Marcellus to New York State Constitution Pipeline built (see Stop Press! Trump Pledges to Revive PA-to-NY Constitution Pipeline). Since then, we’ve eagerly monitored the news to see if there has been any indication that the builder, Williams, is interested in reviving the project. So far, nothing. But there is active chatter on X (formerly Twitter) and elsewhere.
Massachusetts Governor Healey Bragged 'I Stopped Two Gas Pipelines' -Whatever your viewpoint on fossil fuels, solar farms and wind turbines, many Massachusetts residents are shivering through one of the coldest and snowiest winters in years, and some are having a tough time paying to heat their homes.Adding to the misery are high inflation, rising food costs and increasing rents. It's no wonder folks are a bit cranky these days, and the people are demanding answers from the utility companies and their elected officials.Roughly half of Massachusetts households (about 1.4 million) use natural gas for heating. Natural gas is the primary heating fuel in Massachusetts.In December 2023, the administration of Governor Maura Healey ordered a transition away from natural gas and set a goal of making Massachusetts carbon-neutral by 2050. This has come with a cost.As a candidate for governor in October 2022, then-Attorney General Maura Healey bragged, "Remember, I stopped two gas pipelines from coming into this state."As a result, enough natural gas is not piped into Massachusetts to meet the need forcing a reliance on expensive imported LNG.The Northeast Gas Association says, "Short-term volatility reflecting delivery constraints during periods of high demand and cold weather do occur, especially in regional markets.""The Northeast region, for instance, remains among the most price-sensitive markets in the country, reflecting its pipeline constraints," the Association says.Massachusetts energy providers have been forced to help pay the cost of the Commonwealth's conversion to new energy sources, costs that have been passed on to consumers in the form of fees and surcharges. UPDATE: A spokesperson for Gov. Healey sent over the following statement: “As Attorney General, Governor Healey successfully argued that the people of Massachusetts should not be footing the bill for two new natural gas pipelines. Once the companies learned that they were going to have to pay for the pipelines without passing the costs onto consumers, they withdrew their proposal. Governor Healey has always stood up for the ratepayers of Massachusetts.”
Increased Commercial Interest Drives Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 Toward FID This Year --Sempra Infrastructure is targeting a final investment decision (FID) for the second phase of its LNG export project in Texas by the end of the year as commercial interest heats up and regulatory headwinds ease. With construction of the first 13 million ton/year (Mt/y) phase of the Port Arthur project under construction, Sempra’s LNG arm has been aligning contracts and marketing efforts to launch the second phase in quick succession. CEO Justin Bird said the company’s strategy could be coming to focus as soon as this year as it negotiates with potential customers for an additional 5 Mt/y in capacity it needs to cover before reaching FID.
Cheniere Focuses Future LNG Expansions as Corpus Christi LNG Continues to Add U.S. Natural Gas Demand - Cheniere Energy Inc. expects to ride the “tailwinds” of a new administration and robust global LNG demand in 2025 as its Corpus Christi export project adds fresh natural gas demand to the domestic market, according to management. Houston-based Cheniere is continuing to hone in on growth and the next phases of its massive U.S. LNG platforms even as its Stage 3 expansion in South Texas ramps up. The first train of seven started production ahead of schedule at the end of last year, and has continued to ramp up through the first months of 2025. CEO Jack Fusco said the first cargo was produced from Train 1 earlier in the month and commissioning of the second train has already begun.
NextDecade Considering Another Five Liquefaction Trains at Rio Grande LNG Site -- NextDecade Corp. disclosed Friday that it could ultimately double the number of liquefaction trains being developed at its Rio Grande LNG facility in South Texas to 10.The company is in the process of building the first 17.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) phase that consists of three trains, while it works to commercialize another two trains that it has not yet sanctioned. Management said in a year-end business update it plans to pre-file at FERC for a sixth train this year and that the company is in the early stages of developing Trains 7 and 8. NextDecade is also exploring the possibility of developing Trains 9 and 10.
U.S Natural Gas Exports Soar to New Highs as Additional LNG Supply Hits the Water — A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers $13.713/MMBtu: Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices have slid back below the $14 mark as winter weather and supply risks soften across the continent. TTF fell to $13.713 on Tuesday, which was followed closely by a dip in East Asia LNG prices. The easing of European prices has also meant U.S. LNG has become cheaper than pipeline supplies several times this month, according to benchmark assessments from the European Union. 2.4 Mt: U.S. LNG exports hit an all time weekly high the week of Feb. 17-23 as new supply capacity continues to ramp up. Weekly exports reached 2.4 million tons (Mt), shattering the previous record of 2.1 Mt set during Dec. 4-10 2023, according to Kpler data. Cheniere Energy Inc. disclosed last week that the first cargo from its Corpus Christi LNG Stage 3 expansion hit the water. Plaquemines LNG is also still shipping commissioning cargoes as Venture Global LNG Inc. seeks federal permission to commission its ninth block. Two vessels left the facility last week for Europe. 16 Bcf/d: The ramp up of Plaquemines LNG has also helped push U.S. feed gas demand for liquefaction to new highs. Feed gas flows reached a record high of 16 Bcf/d on Feb. 23 and have averaged 15 Bcf/d for the past 30 days, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data. Feed gas flows averaged around 13.4 Bcf/d during the same period last year. Feed gas demand is expected to remain elevated into next week. 5 HRSGs: Venture Global may be contributing more consistent feed gas demand over the next few months from its other Louisiana facility, as well. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved Tuesday the company’s request to reintroduce gas to the fifth heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) at Calcasieu Pass LNG. It marks the last critical piece of equipment Venture Global said it needed to repair before it could begin delivering contracted cargoes to customers in mid-April. Over the last three months, Calcasieu Pass LNG has been averaging roughly 77 Mt in exports, or 11-13 cargoes per month, according to Kpler data. 2 diversions: Two LNG cargoes previously headed for unloading in Europe early next month have shifted for Asian destinations, according to Kpler data. One cargo originated from QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, while the other came from Oman LNG. Asia’s pull of spot cargoes appeared to have accelerated this week, with Asian buyers expected to receive more than 6 Mt by March 2. That’s almost six more cargoes than the week before. During the same time, QatarEnergy purchased a spot cargo from Plaquemines LNG that is headed for France.
US natgas prices drop 6% to one-week low on mild weather forecasts - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 6% to a one-week low on Monday on forecasts for warmer weather and lower heating demand that should cut the amount of fuel utilities pull out of storage to meet heating demand in coming weeks. "We are quickly getting closer to the start of spring and the market is pulling back on this warm-up," Front-month gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 24.0 cents, or 5.7%, to settle at $3.994 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since February 14. That knocked the front-month out of technically overbought territory for the first time in five days. "We have some selling back today and that's because we're not going to get the really strong (storage) withdrawals over the next three weeks that some folks were anticipating ... but long term, we are still well supported from a fundamental perspective through summer," Traders noted that extreme cold so far this year forced energy firms to pull huge amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles down to about 11% below the five-year (2020-2024) normal for this time of year. Worries about those falling stockpiles helped boost prices by around 39% over the past three weeks, prompting speculators to increase their net long futures and options positions last week on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchange to their highest since July 2021, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Over the past couple of weeks, daily output dropped from a record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a three-week low of 100.5 bcfd on February 19 as extreme cold across much of the country froze wells before rising to a one-week high of 103.8 bcfd on February 23 as milder weather unfroze those wells. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 11. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 127.0 bcfd this week to 118.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.4 bcfd on Sunday, topping the prior all-time high of 16.3 bcfd on February 19. The LNG daily feedgas high occurred as flows to Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a record 1.8 bcfd.
US natgas prices jump 5% on record flows to LNG export plants (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Tuesday with flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants near record highs. On its second to last day as the front-month, gas futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 18.0 cents, or 4.5%, to settle at $4.174 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Futures for April, which will soon be the front-month, were trading up about 3% to $4.11 per mmBtu. Those price increases came despite near record output so far this month and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand this week than previously expected that should allow utilities to pull less gas out of storage than normal for this time of year. Traders, however, noted extreme cold earlier this year forced energy firms to pull huge amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January, cutting stockpiles to about 11% below the five-year (2020-2024) usual. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Over the past couple of weeks, daily output dropped from a record high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a three-week low of 100.5 bcfd on February 19 as extreme cold across much of the country froze wells before rising to a one-week high of 104.3 bcfd on February 25 as milder weather unfroze those wells. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas hit a record 16.4 bcfd on Sunday, topping the prior all-time high of 16.3 bcfd on February 19. Gas was trading at around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia. UK oil major Shell estimated global demand for LNG would rise by around 60% by 2040, driven largely by economic growth in Asia, artificial intelligence (AI) and efforts to cut emissions in heavy industries and transportation.
US natgas prices ease on near-record output, lower demand forecast (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Thursday on near-record output, forecast for less demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and a federal report showing last week's storage withdrawal was slightly smaller than anticipated. On its first day as the front-month, gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.5 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $3.934 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). That small price decline came despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts for slightly cooler weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms pulled 261 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended February 21. That was a little less than the 266-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a drop of 86 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 141 bcf for this time of year. Analysts noted that the withdrawal, while smaller than expected, was still much bigger than usual for this time of year as utilities pulled massive amounts of gas from storage to heat homes and businesses during frigid weather last week. Financial company LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 104.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in February from 102.7 bcfd in January, when freezing oil and gas wells and pipes, known as freeze-offs, cut production. That compares with a monthly record of 104.6 bcfd in December 2023. Over the last few weeks, output dropped from a record daily high of 106.7 bcfd on February 6 to a three-week low of 100.5 bcfd on February 19 as extreme cold froze wells before rising to a two-week high of 105.2 bcfd on February 27 as milder weather unfroze those wells. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through March 14. With milder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, will fall from 125.8 bcfd this week to 117.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.6 bcfd so far in February, up from 14.6 bcfd in January. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. That LNG feedgas increase mostly came as gas flows to Venture Global's 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant under construction in Louisiana hit a record high of 1.8 bcfd on Wednesday and Thursday. Gas was trading around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
Front Month Nymex Natural Gas Rose 25.95% This Month to Settle at $3.8340 — Front Month Nymex Natural Gas for April delivery gained 79.00 cents per million British thermal units, or 25.95% to $3.8340 per million British thermal units this month
- --Largest one month net and percentage gain since Sept. 2024
- --Up eight of the past 11 months
- --This week it is down 29.50 cents or 7.14%
- --Largest one week net and percentage decline since the week ending Jan. 31, 2025
- --Snaps a three week winning streak
- --Today it is down 10.00 cents or 2.54%
- --Down two of the past three sessions
- --Lowest settlement value since Friday, Feb. 14, 2025
- --Off 10.42% from its 52-week high of $4.28 hit Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025
- --Up 143.43% from its 52-week low of $1.575 hit Tuesday, March 26, 2024
- --Rose 108.94% from 52 weeks ago
- --Off 10.42% from its 2025 settlement high of $4.28 hit Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025
- --Up 25.95% from its 2025 settlement low of $3.044 hit Friday, Jan. 31, 2025
- --Off 75.07% from its record high of $15.378 hit Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2005
- --Year-to-date it is up 20.10 cents or 5.53%
All prices are calculated based on the settlement price of the current front month contract.
Missouri Loses Control Over 1.5 Million-Mile Gas Pipeline Network as Feds Step In — As reported by the Missouri Independent, the federal government has taken over regulating Missouri’s 1.5 million miles of natural gas pipelines, citing the state’s failure to enforce adequate penalties for safety violations. Previously, Missouri’s fines for violations ranged from $20,000 to $200,000—far below the federal range of $272,000 to $2.7 million. Federal officials had warned Missouri lawmakers for years that noncompliance could lead to a regulatory takeover. State Sen. Mike Cierpiot, R-Lee’s Summit, has repeatedly introduced legislation to raise the fines, but political gridlock has stalled progress. His latest bill aims to restore Missouri’s oversight by aligning penalties with federal standards, though it remains tied up in broader utility reforms that have sparked legislative disputes. Missouri’s Public Service Commission (PSC) conducts around 100 to 150 inspections annually, identifying leaks, corrosion, and other hazards. Kathleen McNelis, PSC’s pipeline safety manager, said the agency prioritizes fixing violations over issuing fines, which is why no penalties were imposed despite finding 74 violations in 2023. With PHMSA now in charge, Missouri has lost control over how penalties are handled, and any fines collected will go to the federal treasury instead of local schools. Federal regulators had given the state multiple chances to comply, but after years of inaction, they decided to step in and take over enforcement.
House votes to overturn rule implementing methane fee - The House on Wednesday voted to overturn a Biden-era rule implementing a program that charges oil and gas companies for excess methane emissions. The vote was 220-206-1.Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar (Texas), Jared Golden (Maine), Vicente Gonzalez (Texas), Adam Gray (Calif.), Kristen McDonald Rivet (Mich.) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.) voted with nearly every Republican in favor of the measure. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.) was the only Republican to vote with Democrats against it. Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) voted present.The Senate is expected to soon hold a similar vote and the resolution is likely to pass there as well and ultimately be signed by President Trump.However, overturning the rule does not necessarily eliminate the program, which was written into law in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. Fully overturning it appears to require additional legislation, and Republicans are expected to try to repeal it as part of their broader legislative package.
Congress Overturns Biden-Era Methane Fee on Energy Producers (Reuters) — The U.S. Senate on Thursday voted on a resolution that would overturn the Biden administration's proposed fee on methane emissions, one of the previous Environmental Protection Agency's final measures to force big oil and gas producers to slash emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas. The Senate passed the resolution under Congressional Review Act process, which allows Congress to reverse new federal rules with a simple majority, effectively overturning the escalating charge on oil and gas producers set by the agency they have called a tax. It follows passage of a similar resolution by the House on Wednesday. The methane fee was mandated by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which directed the EPA to set a charge on methane emissions for facilities that emit more than 25,000 tons per year of carbon dioxide equivalent. Methane is the most prevalent greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide that tends to leak into the atmosphere undetected from drill sites, gas pipelines and other oil and gas infrastructure. The fee started at $900 per metric ton of methane emitted in 2024, and increased to $1,200 in 2025, and $1,500 for 2026 and beyond. The EPA last year finalized methane emission and reporting standards for the oil and gas sector, which faced less opposition from oil and gas companies. Industry groups applauded the passage of the resolutions in the House and Senate and urged President Donald Trump to quickly sign the legislation. "The Biden administration and Democrats in Congress passed the methane tax to single out and punish the oil and natural gas industry despite its already burdensome EPA regulatory framework," said Independent Petroleum Association of America President Jeff Eshelman. Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, top Democrat on the Senate environment committee, said the resolution would raise energy prices and weaken environmental quality for consumers. The American Petroleum Institute (API) also praised the passage of a Congressional Review Act resolution aimed at repealing the EPA’s Waste Emissions Charge (WEC), a methane fee established under the Inflation Reduction Act. API Executive Vice President Amanda Eversole called the measure a “duplicative, punitive tax” that hinders energy innovation. She emphasized that industry-led efforts have already driven methane emissions down while increasing production, advocating for policies that support American energy leadership.
Unexpected drop in EIA crude oil inventories signals stronger demand (AI generated) The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories reported a surprising decline in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The actual number of barrels dropped by 2.332 million, defying the forecasted increase of 2.500 million barrels. This unexpected decrease in crude inventories is significantly lower than the predicted increase and indicates a stronger demand for crude oil. Economists and market analysts often use the EIA Crude Oil Inventories as a barometer for the health of the oil industry and the broader economy. An increase in crude inventories typically suggests weaker demand, which can depress crude prices. Conversely, a decrease in inventories usually implies greater demand, which can buoy crude prices. Compared to the previous data, the actual number also shows a dramatic shift. The previous figure stood at an increase of 4.633 million barrels, making the current decrease of 2.332 million barrels a stark contrast. This swing from a significant inventory build to a substantial drawdown is a bullish signal for crude prices and could potentially impact petroleum product prices, which in turn, can influence inflation. The EIA Crude Oil Inventories report is considered highly important, with a three-star rating, due to its potential to influence the price of petroleum products and its broader impact on inflation. The unexpected drop in inventories could have significant implications for the oil market and the overall economy. Market participants will be closely monitoring the next report to see if this trend of stronger demand continues. This unexpected drop in crude inventories could potentially signal a shift in the oil market dynamics, with implications for energy companies, investors, and consumers alike.
United States Oil and Gas Market to Grow from USD 244.4 Billion in 2023 to USD 325.5 Billion by 2030, Registering a 4% CAGR -- The United States Oil and Gas Market remains a critical pillar of the global energy industry, supported by rising energy demands, increasing shale gas exploration, and advancements in extraction technologies. The U.S. continues to be one of the world’s top producers and exporters of crude oil and natural gas, playing a vital role in global energy security. According to recent market research, the U.S. Oil and Gas Market was valued at USD 244.4 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4%, reaching USD 325.5 billion by 2030. This growth is primarily driven by high energy consumption across industries, technological innovations in drilling, and an increasing focus on sustainability and environmental compliance. Key Growth Drivers of the United States Oil and Gas Market
1. Increasing Energy Demand Across Industries -The industrial sector, transportation, and power generation are major consumers of oil and gas in the United States. Key contributors to rising demand include:
- Economic growth driving higher industrial output and transportation needs.
- Expansion of petrochemical production, increasing the consumption of natural gas and crude derivatives.
- Rising power generation capacity, where natural gas is a preferred alternative to coal due to its lower carbon footprint.
As the U.S. economy continues to expand, energy-intensive industries will further contribute toupstream oil and gas exploration and production activities.
2. Expansion of Shale Gas Exploration and Production - The U.S. shale revolution has significantly reshaped the global energy landscape, with advanced hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling unlocking vast reserves of tight oil and natural gas. Key shale formations include:
- Permian Basin (Texas and New Mexico) – The largest shale oil-producing region.
- Marcellus and Utica Shale (Appalachian Basin) – Major natural gas-producing regions.
- Bakken Formation (North Dakota and Montana) – A crucial contributor to crude oil output.
With continuous advancements in drilling efficiency, cost reduction, and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques, the shale industry remains a primary driver of U.S. energy dominance.
3. Adoption of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) Technologies --As conventional oil reservoirs mature, companies are investing in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques to boost production rates and maximize output. These methods include:
- Thermal EOR (steam injection) to improve oil mobility.
- Gas Injection EOR using CO₂ or natural gas to increase reservoir pressure.
- Chemical EOR, deploying surfactants, polymers, and nanoparticles to improve oil displacement.
With the U.S. government’s push for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, CO₂-based EOR is gaining traction, ensuring sustained production while reducing environmental impact.
4. Technological Advancements in Drilling and Production - The U.S. oil and gas sector is at the forefront of technological innovation, focusing on:
- Automated drilling systems to enhance efficiency.
- Artificial intelligence (AI) and big data analytics for real-time reservoir monitoring.
- Smart completions using fiber optics and sensors for optimized well performance.
- Digital twin technology for predictive maintenance and operational safety.
These technological breakthroughs are lowering production costs, improving well productivity, and minimizing environmental risks, making the U.S. a leader in energy innovation.
Most Propane Comes from Heavy Hydrocarbon (Crude Oil) Wells - LPG, or liquefied petroleum gas, is known by the more common name of propane. Propane is an NGL (natural gas liquid). Propane is a byproduct of drilling for oil and natural gas. In fact, according to a new article in LPGas magazine, it’s a misconception to say companies drill for oil or natural gas. The more accurate description is that drillers drill for hydrocarbons because every hole they sink brings multiple hydrocarbons out of the ground, including crude oil (or condensate), methane (CH4), ethane (C2H6), propane (C3H8), and other hydrocarbons like pentane, butane, and others. It would be accurate to say drillers primarily drill for single hydrocarbons, namely crude oil and/or natural gas. However, other hydrocarbons, including propane, come out of the ground as byproducts.
Army Corps Lists Enbridge’s Line 5 as ‘Emergency’ Project Eligible to Bypass Environmental Review (Reuters) — The Army Corps of Engineers has identified over 600 energy and other infrastructure projects that could be fast-tracked under President Donald Trump's National Energy Emergency declaration, according to data posted on its website. Among the projects on the list were Enbridge's Line 5 oil pipeline under Lake Michigan, several natural gas power plants, and liquefied natural gas export terminals proposed by Cheniere and Venture Global. The Army Corps posted the list - without sending a public notice - last week, marking the projects as eligible for emergency permitting treatment. Trump had ordered the Army Corps to issue permits enabling the filling of wetlands and dredging or building in waterways as part of the "National Energy Emergency" he declared in a day-one executive order. The Army Corps was not immediately available for comment. The fast-tracking of these projects could trigger legal fights, with environmental groups warning they are flouting federal laws. “This end-run around the normal environmental review process is not only harmful for our waters, but is illegal under the Corps’ own emergency permitting regulations,” said David Bookbinder, Director of Law and Policy at The Environmental Integrity Project. Companies with projects awaiting key permits applauded the move to "streamline" the review process. "We are very encouraged to see this action to expedite review for responsible critical mineral development projects," said Jon Cherry, CEO of Perpetua Resources PPTA.O, which is developing a U.S. antimony and gold mine in Idaho with financial support from the Pentagon and U.S. Export-Import Bank. The Biden administration had issued the mine a permit, but it still needs a wetlands permit, which Cherry said he expects to receive by July. West Virginia has the largest number of projects on the list at 141. There 60 in Pennsylvania, 57 in Texas, 42 in Florida, 41 in Ohio, according to the Environmental Integrity Project, which is tracking the permits.
Michigan Court Backs Permits for Enbridge’s Line 5 Pipeline Tunnel Project (P&GJ) — A Michigan appeals court has upheld state permits for Enbridge Energy’s proposed tunnel project beneath the Straits of Mackinac, rejecting legal challenges from environmental groups and Native American tribes, according to the Associated Press (AP). The ruling allows Enbridge to move forward with its plan to encase a section of its Line 5 pipeline in a protective tunnel. The Michigan Court of Appeals determined that the Public Service Commission acted appropriately in issuing permits for the $500 million project. According to AP, opponents had argued that regulators failed to assess whether the pipeline itself remains necessary and overlooked the environmental impact of fossil fuels. However, the court found no grounds to overturn the commission’s decision, concluding that it was comprehensive and reasonable. Enbridge has operated Line 5 since 1953, transporting crude oil and natural gas liquids between Wisconsin and Ontario. The pipeline runs along the bottom of the Straits of Mackinac, where safety concerns have intensified in recent years. In 2017, Enbridge disclosed that its engineers had known about coating gaps on the pipeline since 2014. The following year, a boat anchor strike further raised fears of a potential spill. Despite maintaining that the line remains structurally sound, Enbridge agreed in 2018 to construct the tunnel under an arrangement with former Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder. The tunnel would enclose a four-mile segment of the pipeline to provide additional protection. Although the appellate ruling supports the project, Enbridge still faces additional legal and regulatory barriers. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer opposes the continued operation of Line 5, and Attorney General Dana Nessel is pursuing a separate lawsuit to revoke the easement allowing the pipeline to operate beneath the Straits. That case, currently in a state court, could result in further legal complications for Enbridge. The company must also secure a permit from the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy, as well as federal approval from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers before construction can proceed. Environmental advocates remain concerned that federal regulators may expedite the approval process, particularly under policies favoring energy development. Despite these challenges, Enbridge welcomed the court’s decision.
Feds Approve Another Deepwater Oil Export Terminal Off Texas -The Trump administration on Friday approved plans for a second deepwater oil loading terminal off the Texas coast, opening another door for continued long-term growth in American crude production and exports. It’s the administration’s latest rejection of previous international agreements to move away from fossil fuels as a means to mitigate the carbon emissions fueling dangerous global warming. Trump has dismissed climate change as a threat and promised growth for the nation’s oil and gas sector. “Today, we are unleashing the full power of American energy,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said in an announcement. “With this approval, we are increasing our energy revenue and unlocking our vast oil resources—not just for domestic security, but to dominate the global market.”The GulfLink oil terminal will load up to 1 million barrels per day onto the world’s largest class of oil tankers for export overseas. It will eventually float alongside the much larger Sea Port Oil Terminal, which was approved in 2022 and remains unbuilt. In December, the Biden administration missed a deadline to rule on the GulfLink proposal, saying it was still evaluating whether the project was in the public interest. Last year, the United Nations’ annual climate conference concluded in Azerbaijan with a notable lack of resolution on the phase-out of fossil fuels called for during previous years. Global oil production and temperatures both continue to rise, making the last two years the hottest ever on record. President Donald Trump promises steep growth for American oil and gas, which already logged record production and profits under President Joe Biden. The GulfLink terminal was first proposed years ago by Sentinel Midstream and remains years away from construction. It is one of four deepwater terminals currently proposed along the Gulf Coast, part of an infrastructure buildout designed to export more American oil flowing largely from West Texas.“As the volumes of that fracked oil become more and more potentially impactful, we’re going to need to have a more effective way of getting it exported,” said Charles McConnell, a former assistant secretary of fossil energy at the U.S. Department of Energy and executive director of the Center for Carbon Management in Energy at the University of Houston. “I think more terminals offshore is probably the order of the day.”He said the export of petroleum products now represents the largest single export revenue stream for the U.S., as the Trump administration seeks to use oil exports as an instrument of geopolitical power. “I believe this administration will be much more inclined to use that advantage, not just apologize about it,” he said.Less than 10 years have passed since the U.S. began to export oil. It followed the revolution in fracking, which unlocked a tremendous new wealth from underground shale formations in Texas and several other states. As more and more shale oil flowed from the ground, much of it was piped for export overseas. That decade of steep growth in production has made the U.S. the world’s top oil producer and its third-largest exporter as of 2023, behind Saudi Arabia and Russia. But America’s export infrastructure remains relatively undeveloped, limiting further growth. Although the Gulf Coast region in Texas and Louisiana processes the majority of American oil exports, it has just one deepwater terminal capable of docking with supermassive tankers, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, an old import terminal that’s been converted.At the region’s onshore terminals, shallow coastal water prohibits the approach of giant tankers, so they anchor miles offshore while smaller ships ferry out oil in a relatively inefficient process. The development of deepwater terminals will draw more traffic to the region, said Anas Alhajji, Dallas-based managing partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC.“It will bring more business, it will bring more pipelines,” he said. “If shale production continues to rise, almost all the increase will go to exports.”
Greenpeace says a pipeline company's lawsuit threatens the organization's future (AP) — A Texas pipeline company’s lawsuit accusing Greenpeace of defamation, disruptions and attacks during protests against the Dakota Access Pipeline goes to trial in North Dakota on Monday, in a case the environmental advocacy organization says threatens free speech rights and its very future. The lawsuit stems from the protests in 2016 and 2017 over the oil pipeline’s planned Missouri River crossing, upstream from the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s reservation. The tribe has long argued that the pipeline threatens its water supply. Of the thousands of people who protested the project, hundreds were arrested. Energy Transfer and its subsidiary Dakota Access allege trespass, nuisance, defamation and other offenses by Netherlands-based Greenpeace International and its American branch, Greenpeace USA. The lawsuit also names the group’s funding arm, Greenpeace Fund Inc. The jury trial in state court in Mandan, North Dakota, is scheduled to last five weeks. Dallas-based Energy Transfer alleges Greenpeace tried to delay construction of the pipeline, defamed the companies behind it, and coordinated trespassing, vandalism and violence by pipeline protesters. The lawsuit seeks millions of dollars in damages. The Dakota Access Pipeline was completed and has been transporting oil since June 2017. Greenpeace International said it shouldn’t be named in the lawsuit because it is distinct from the two U.S.-based Greenpeace entities, operates outside the U.S., and its employees were never in North Dakota or involved with the protests. Greenpeace USA said the plaintiffs have failed to back up their claims in the years since the protests. Earlier in February, a judge denied motions by Greenpeace to throw out or limit parts of the case. Representatives of the environmental organization founded over 50 years ago said the company just wants to silence oil industry critics. “This trial is a critical test of the future of the First Amendment, both freedom of speech and peaceful protest, under the Trump administration and beyond,” Greenpeace USA Interim Executive Director Sushma Raman told reporters. “A bad ruling in this case could put our rights and freedoms in jeopardy for all of us, whether we are journalists, protesters or anyone who wants to engage in public debate.” Greenpeace USA helped support “nonviolent, direct-action training” on safety and de-escalation at the protests, Senior Legal Adviser Deepa Padmanabha said. Energy Transfer is arguing that “anyone engaged in a training at a protest should be held responsible for the actions of every person at that protest,” Padmanabha said. “So it’s pretty easy to see how, if successful, this kind of tactic could have a serious chilling effect on anyone who might consider participating in a protest.” Earlier in February, Greenpeace International filed an anti-intimidation suit in the District Court of Amsterdam against Energy Transfer, saying the company acted wrongfully and should pay costs and damages resulting from its “meritless” litigation. An Energy Transfer spokesperson said the lawsuit is about Greenpeace not following the law. “It is not about free speech as they are trying to claim. We support the rights of all Americans to express their opinions and lawfully protest. However, when it is not done in accordance with our laws, we have a legal system to deal with that,” Energy Transfer spokeswoman Vicki Granado said in a statement. The company filed a similar case in federal court in 2017, which a judge dismissed in 2019. Soon after, Energy Transfer filed the state court lawsuit now headed to trial. Energy Transfer launched in 1996 with 20 employees and 200 miles (320 kilometers) of natural gas pipelines. Today the 11,000-employee company owns and operates over 125,000 miles (200,000 kilometers) of pipelines and related facilities.
Chevron To Lay Off 20% Of Global Workforce -Chevron Corp. has announced that it will lay off 15-20% of its global workforce and reorganize its business structure. The U.S. oil and gas major announced that it will consolidate its Oil, Products & Gas segment into Upstream and Downstream, Midstream & Chemicals segment, and be led by Mark Nelson, the current executive vice president of the Oil, Products & Gas unit. "Our new organizational structure and leadership appointments are designed to improve our operational efficiency and position Chevron for sustained growth," CEO Mike Wirth said in a statement. The mass layoffs are part of the company’s efforts to cut costs. Last month, Chevron announced that it’s well positioned to grow its free cash flow by $6 billion to $8 billion by 2026, and lower expenses by "a couple billion dollars". America’s second-largest oil and gas company expects to achieve these results thanks to the start of new or expanded oil production projects in Kazakhstan, growth in U.S. shale and offshore U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Chevron has projected oil production growth in the Gulf of Mexico to clock in at 300,000 barrels per day by 2026, up from 200,000 last year. Back in August, Chevron produced its first oil from a pioneering U.S. Gulf of Mexico deepwater field under extreme pressures. The field is expected to produce up to 75,000 barrels of oil per day at its peak, with the company lining up two more offshore projects. Meanwhile, Chevron is looking to close the gap between it and Exxon Mobil Corpthrough the acquisition of Hess Corp. Last month, the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) finalized a consent order that resolves antitrust concerns surrounding Chevron Corporation’s acquisition of oil producer Hess Corporation. Hess CEO John Hess said he's "very confident" that the company's planned $53 billion sale to Chevron will be completed.
BP Set to Scrap Renewable Energy Goal as It Boosts Oil and Gas - BP is expected to announce this week that it is shifting its focus back to oil and gas, ditching a target to boost renewable energy capacity generation 20-fold by 2030, sources familiar with the new strategy told Reuters on Monday.BP earlier this month pledged to fundamentally reset its strategy as it booked its lowest annual and quarterly profits in years and seeks to push up its stock performance and regain investor trust. “Building on the actions taken in the past 12 months, we now plan to fundamentally reset our strategy and drive further improvements in performance, all in service of growing cash flow and returns,” BP’s chief executive Murray Auchincloss said in a statement two weeks ago.BP’s leadership will communicate its new strategy, which “will be a new direction for bp”, at a Capital Markets Update on February 26, Auchincloss added. At the event this Wednesday, BP’s chief executive is expected to announce that the UK-based supermajor would ditch its previous goal – set under former CEO Bernard Looney – to grow renewable capacity 20-fold to 50 gigawatts (GW) between 2019 and 2030. Auchincloss is also expected to announce a pivot back to oil and gas – as other European majors such as Shell and Equinor have already done.BP is set to cut investments in other low-carbon energy solutions as it looks to raise returns for shareholders and cut debt, which has been recently increasing, according to Reuter’s sources.The pressure on BP to improve its stock performance and returns became more intense earlier this month after reports emerged that activist investor Elliott Management had bought a stake in the supermajor and would be pushing for changes in strategy, or even for board reshuffles.Elliott’s stake in BP is estimated at nearly 5% as the activist investor is reportedly pushing for major asset sales to address the undervalued shares of the UK-based supermajor.
Crude oil exports by Mexico's Pemex plummet 44% in January -- Crude oil exports by Mexican state energy company Pemex plunged 44% year-on-year in January to 532,404 barrels per day (bpd), its lowest in decades, official numbers show, as the company has admitted it is struggling with crude quality. The monthly level is the lowest since records in their current form began in January 1990. Last year, exports averaged just over 811,000 bpd and the year before just over one million bpd. Sales to the Americas - an export designation dominated by Pemex's largest market, the United States - were 320,944 bpd in January, 36% less year-on-year, according to the numbers released late on Tuesday. Pemex Chief Executive Officer Victor Rodriguez said in recent weeks that the company had a "temporary" problem with too much salt and water in its crude oil and conceded that some customers had complained. However, Rodriguez said Pemex was in the process of solving the problem, and that exports were not affected. Pemex produced crude oil and condensate of 1.62 million bpd in Advt January, 12% less than the same month a year earlier. Even as exports fell, Pemex's gasoline production rebounded and imports declined some 23% from January 2024. While Pemex does not give explanations for monthly export numbers, it has in recent years pointed to important fields - especially in the Gulf of Mexico - being depleted at a time when new discoveries did not live up to expectations.
Trump Says North American Tariffs Going Ahead as Mexico Imports of U.S. Gas Surge — President Trump has said tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4, a threat he held back for one month earlier this year. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) Agua Dulce and Waha bidweek natural gas price indexes graphed against the average U.S. pipeline flows to Mexico. Trump cited the flow of drugs across borders. “We cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA, and therefore, until it stops, or is seriously limited, the proposed TARIFFS scheduled to go into effect on MARCH FOURTH will, indeed, go into effect, as scheduled,” the president said on social media. He added China would be slapped with an additional 10% tariff.
The Treasure of the Sierra Madre - Mexico's Energy Strategy May Rest on Fate of Natural Gas Pipelines --A significant shift is underway within Mexico’s energy landscape, reflected by the development of large-scale oil and gas infrastructure projects in the country, particularly the Southeast Gateway and Sierra Madre gas pipelines that would move U.S.-sourced natural gas across Mexico. These projects — the first an undersea pipe in the Gulf of Mexico and the second a pipe across the country’s northern tier — would enhance Mexico’s gas transport capacity while supporting power generation and industrial development. Mexico, which is already heavily reliant on imports of U.S. gas, is forecast to see gas demand rise in the coming years as domestic production drops. In today’s RBN blog, we look at those two pipelines, their challenges, and how the potential for U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports might complicate the future of both projects. The Southeast Gateway Pipeline (dashed yellow line in Figure 1 below), also known as Gasoducto Puerta al Sureste, is a $3.9 billion (79 billion Mexican Peso) project led by TC Energy in partnership with Mexico’s state-owned Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) that is slated to come online in May. The conduit extends TC Energy’s existing 2.6-Bcf/d Sur de Texas-Tuxpan undersea pipeline (magenta line), which runs from Brownsville, TX, to Tuxpan. (As we noted inSouthern Cross, Sur de Texas-Tuxpan connects with Enbridge’s Valley Crossing pipeline at the border. The gas for Southeast Gateway would be sourced from the Agua Dulce hub in South Texas.)The 444-mile (715-km), 1.3-Bcf/d undersea pipeline would link three key ports — Tuxpan and Coatzacoalcos in Veracruz state and Dos Bocas in Tabasco state. Its end users would likely include existing (about 240 MMcf/d) and future CFE power plants on Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula that should begin service this year. (CFE, one of Mexico’s largest state-owned enterprises, provides transmission services and distributes electricity; generates and sells electricity; and imports, exports, transports, stores, purchases and sells natural gas, coal and other fuels. It also develops and executes engineering projects, research, and geological and geophysical activities; and oversees the development and implementation of energy sources.) The pipeline’s undersea route is at least partly due to the significant hurdles to building an onshore pipeline in Mexico, where acquiring right-of-way is difficult, there is no ability to use eminent domain, and local groups can be challenging to work with — to say the least. In some parts of the country, cartels also may be a serious risk. Additionally, pipeline projects must also satisfy the local indigenous communities. There are several stories about pipeline projects that could not satisfy the local powers hitting dead ends or worse, sabotage. By locating the project offshore, Southeast Gateway avoids some of those hurdles and is also able to pass through some important PEMEX offshore production areas, such as the Lakach deepwater field near Coatzacoalcos. (Mexico’s newly elected president, Claudia Sheinbaum, announced a plan in mid-February to boost PEMEX natural gas production by 50% by the end of her six-year term.)However, going offshore has opened the project to pushback based on its potential impact on marine ecosystems. The pipeline’s route passes through areas that have been designated environmentally sensitive, including the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico Reef Corridor. TC Energy says that it has invested more than $50 million in marine studies and states that the pipeline route does not touch or cross living coral reefs. However, some sections of the environmental impact study (EIS), including crucial coordinates, were redacted by officials, fueling skepticism among conservationists.The second project we’re discussing today, the Sierra Madre Pipeline (dashed orange line in Figure 2 above), is part of Mexico Pacific's $14 billion-plus (288 billion Mexican Peso) Saguaro Energía LNG project (aqua diamond at left). This 497-mile (800-km), 2.8-Bcf/d pipeline, which is not expected to begin operations until 2028-29, would run west from Guadalupe in Chihuahua state (near El Paso, TX) to Puerto Libertad in Sonora state. Gas supplies would come from the Permian’s Waha Hub (red dot) via the proposed 2.8-Bcf/d Saguaro Connector (dashed green line), which the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates would come online by 2027-28.But the pipeline faces an uncertain path forward, since (as noted above) onshore pipelines are notoriously difficult to build in Mexico and both projects — Sierra Madre and Southeast Gateway — have already faced legal challenges. Further obstructions are possible as construction progresses, particularly from environmental groups and affected communities.Adding to the uncertainty of these endeavors is whether the Trump administration will support additional U.S. gas exports to Mexico. These pipelines would represent a deepening of energy ties between the two countries — both projects would help move U.S.-produced natural gas — which could influence broader diplomatic and economic relations. But the potential for U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports — and the possibility of retaliatory Mexican tariffs on U.S. imports — complicates the fate of both projects. (President Trump announced a 25% tariff on Mexican imports to take effect February 4, then agreed to delay the tariffs by one month.) When economic tensions between neighbors escalate into trade disputes, the repercussions often ripple through critical industries. This is especially true when the two countries in conflict are deeply dependent upon one another. If the U.S. were to impose new tariffs on Mexican goods, Mexico could respond with calculated measures targeting the U.S. oil and gas sector. But Mexico’s reliance on U.S. natural gas, which accounts for approximately 75% of its imports, makes retaliatory tariffs problematic because they would raise costs for gas-dependent Mexican industries.In fact, part of the argument for these projects is that they will enhance Mexico's energy security and promote economic development, particularly in the country's southern regions. Southeast Gateway, for instance, is expected to create approximately 4,000 direct and indirect jobs during peak construction. An injunction was filed against it in 2018 on environmental grounds but it was later struck down after a court ruled the project was a matter of national security, highlighting the pipeline’s perceived importance. Regarding Sierra Madre, to try to mitigate some of the risk, the pipeline is contingent on the LNG terminal’s developer, Mexico Pacific Limited (see Down in Mexico), making a final investment decision (FID). And, for the Saguaro Connector to move forward, developer ONEOK would need to see FID from both the terminal and the Sierra Madre pipeline.Political, technical and logistical hurdles in constructing and operating these pipelines — especially for the offshore components of Southeast Gateway — will require careful management and innovative solutions. Moreover, whether the projects advance or get bogged down may reveal the real priorities of Mexico’s energy strategy.
Centrica Inks Deal to Send More U.S. LNG to Latin America -Centrica plc has agreed to sell LNG to Brazil’s Petróleo Brasileiro SA, aka Petrobras, nearly one-third of which the UK company is expected to source from its U.S. portfolio, reflecting Latin America’s reliance on supplies of the super-chilled fuel from the United States even as demand remains uneven. Chart showing Latin America DES prices. Starting in 2027, the 800,000 million tons/year (Mt/y) of LNG supply Centrica will supply to Petrobras will be sourced from its Sabine Pass and Delfin supply agreements. Centrica CEO Chris O'Shea said the supply agreement was part of a strategy to build “long-term partnerships while derisking its portfolio exposure in the medium-term.”
Colombia Turns to LNG Amid Cloudy Forecasts for Domestic Natural Gas Output - Colombia imported record levels of LNG in 2024 and its state-owned oil and gas company may be eyeing LNG as a keystone for energy security. Executives at Colombia’s national oil company (NOC) Ecopetrol SA said last week that they were planning to build two additional import facilities in the country to meet demand that is often unpredictable. Colombia relies on hydropower for the bulk of its electric supply, but during dry spells, natural gas demand spikes. The fuel is also used in tens of millions of homes, as well as in a growing natural gas vehicle fleet.
Trump Tariff Plan Spotlight's America's Dirty Little Energy Secret: Crude Oil From Canada -When President Donald Trump announced plans to slap a 10 percent tariff on oil and gas imports from Canada, he shined an uncomfortable spotlight on a little-known fact about American households. Millions of them rely on Canadian oil to keep warm. While the idea of a tank full of heating oil firing up the furnace may sound quaint to some, it’s how nearly five million U.S. households heated their home in 2023, according to the United States Energy Information Administration. About 80 percent of them are in the Northeast. In New Hampshire, more than 40 percent of residents use home heating oil, and it Maine it’s more than half. Much of that oil comes, not from Texas or Oklahoma, but from Canada. As a result, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association the cost of oil-based heating would increase by $117 to $1,576 on average if Trump’s tariffs take effect. America imports Canadian oil because of its proximity and the network of established pipelines that serve both nations. But it also uses Canadian oil because it’s the sort of heavy crude similar to the oil from California that many U.S. refineries are designed to process. Around 25 percent of all oil refined in America comes from Canada. The alternative to heating oil is natural gas. Cheaper to produce – and healthier for the environment – it accounts for 43.1 percent of electricity generation in the U.S., according to federal statistics. Not only that, but Pennsylvania, America’s second-largest producer of natural gas, could easily provide the natural gas needed to replace heating oil demand in the region. And so, while the public policy debate has largely focused on the tariff policy, people in the energy sector are asking another question: Why are so many Americans still burning oil when the U.S. is the largest producer of cleaner natural gas? Because of a successful effort by the Biden administration and its green allies to block energy infrastructure to take natural gas where it’s most needed. There have been many pipeline proposals to take natural gas from the prolific Marcellus and Utica shale regions of Pennsylvania, says Marc Brown with Consumer Energy Alliance. But those proposals ran into heavy resistance, particularly in blue states like Massachusetts and New York. “Any one of those projects would have reduced energy prices, increased the electricity grid’s reliability, and reduced emissions.” Supporters of expanded U.S. natural gas note the irony of environmental activists and Democratic governors going to court to keep more Americans burning imported oil. New York banned fracking in 2014 after a six-year moratorium sparked by unverified environmental concerns, despite a 2009 ConEdison report praising the state’s “safe, robust natural gas infrastructure,” including 10 pipelines. Natural gas allies received a boost in 2012 when the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) argued prices would likely drop if a pipeline from New Jersey to New York was expanded. The EIA said the expanded pipeline would help reduce bottlenecks from natural gas rich Pennsylvania to New Hampshire and the rest of New England. But three years after New York banned fracking, the administration of then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) halted two major natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania. In Massachusetts, Gov. Maura Healey (D) recently demanded energy companies lower their prices after the state’s public utilities commission approved a 25 percent price increase on natural gas. But the progressive Democrat previously bragged that she “stopped two pipelines from coming into this state.” Access to natural gas in the Bay State has become so problematic that in 2018 and 2019, some Massachusetts utilities issued moratoriums on new residential natural gas hookups due to “insufficient pipeline capacity.” Energy companies shifted focus to truck transportation of oil and natural gas, extending delivery time of shipments – and driving up costs. But that could change under the Trump administration, Brown said. “Hopefully, projects receive approvals so that they can deliver much-needed relief to families and businesses–especially to those on low and fixed incomes that can least afford the exorbitantly high energy prices we see in the Northeast.” And it may already be happening. Trump has vowed to revive the proposed Constitution Pipeline from Pennsylvania to New York that was abandoned in 2020. “It will bring down the energy prices in New York and in all of New England by 50, 60, 70 percent,” Trump said.
Canada Eyes New Oil Pipelines to Avoid U.S. Tariffs, But No One Wants to Build Them (Reuters) — The Canadian government would have to play a significant role in any project to build new oil pipelines in Canada to overcome regulatory, financial and political hurdles and activist opposition, industry experts said. With U.S. President Donald Trump threatening tariffs on Canadian oil exports, several Canadian politicians have called for new pipelines to coastal export terminals to reduce dependency on the U.S. market. Oil is the most valuable export of Canada, the world's fourth-largest oil exporter which pumps 4 million barrels per day (bpd) over the border to U.S. refiners. That is about 90% of Canada's oil exports. Canada's Liberal Energy Minister, the Conservative opposition leader and several provincial premiers have all called for new pipelines to take crude to Canada's west, east and north coasts. Yet no private company has expressed recent interest in taking on such a multibillion-dollar project, which experts say could take a decade to complete. Two big east-west projects have been canceled in the last decade, and a Canadian company also lost billions when former U.S. President Joe Biden revoked permits for the Keystone XL pipeline project to the U.S. in 2021. Trump on Monday said he wanted Keystone XL built and pledged easy regulatory approvals. But on the same day, he said tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada and Mexico would proceed in March. Tariffs would make Canadian crude more expensive for U.S. refiners or cut margins for Canadian producers, hurting demand for the pipeline. Even without tariffs, building pipelines poses too many risks for Canadian companies, said Dennis McConaghy, a former executive with TransCanada Corp., now TC Energy. He worked on that company's ill-fated Keystone XL project. "If I were on the board (of a pipeline company), I would find these risks very difficult to rationalize taking on," McConaghy said in an interview. Canada's current option to bypass the U.S. is the Trans Mountain pipeline system, running from the oil-producing province of Alberta to the British Columbia west coast. Crude can then be shipped to overseas markets. An expansion of the line was completed last year by Kinder Morgan, seven years after the company threatened to cancel it due to heavy environmental and Indigenous opposition. Ottawa bought the Trans Mountain system for C$4.5 billion (US $3.15 billion) in 2018 to finish the expansion. Construction delays and budget overruns pushed its price tag to C$34 billion over four years. "The fact that the cost overruns were so massive, that's a really strong signal to the private sector," s Canada's energy sector has long complained of lengthy permitting times and regulatory uncertainty slowing projects and scaring potential investors. Companies would be unwilling to consider a new pipeline proposal unless the federal government quickly amends the Impact Assessment Act, said Martha Hall Findlay, a former Liberal Member of Parliament and Suncor Energy Inc. executive. The act, effective in 2019, required social and cultural assessments of pipelines as well as environmental impacts. Since then, only one project — the Cedar LNG project — has successfully completed the process, and that took 3-1/2 years. "Working collaboratively with the provinces will be key — and will take some serious political leadership," Hall Findlay said. Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge would not consider a Canadian pipeline project absent a reversal in Ottawa's policy toward energy infrastructure, CEO Greg Ebel said on a recent conference call. He said the country needs permitting reforms, elimination of the proposed cap on emissions from oil and gas production, and expansion of federal and provincial loan guarantee programs allowing Indigenous communities to become equity investors in pipeline projects. "We would need to see real legislative change at the federal and provincial government level that specifically identifies major infrastructure projects ... as being in the national interest," Ebel said.
B.C. Energy Regulator clears companies of 2022 oil spill - A 2022 oil spill along a pipeline in British Columbia has resulted in no penalties for the companies involved. The March 22 spill occurred just over 20 kilometres north of Fort St. John when a pipeline that transports oil to a processing facility ruptured, spilling an estimated 20,000 litres of oil, confirmed a spokesperson for the B.C. Energy Regulator (BCER). In August 2024, the BCER sent a letter to Pavilion Energy Corp. and its contractor Hurley Well Service Ltd. indicating it was considering penalties for contraventions of the Energy Resources Activities Act. But in a Feb. 18 decision, BCER acting executive vice-president for safety and compliance Patrick Smook found that neither company contravened the act. The spill occurred during servicing operations, when Pavilion chose to pump oil through the pipeline to make way for a load of water. Two days into the work, the company discovered a pipeline break had led to an oil spill, wrote Smook in his decision. Pavilion reported the incident to Emergency Management BC. The agency had not responded to BIV's request for comment by the time of publication. An inspection report later blamed the spill on too much pressure, alleging the pipeline pressure climbed to 20,700 kilopascals (kPa) when it ruptured, nearly triple the recommended value. But in Hurley's response to the regulator, the contractor said a pin had been set in a relief valve so it would shear if the pump hit 17,237 kPa of pressure. “I accept that the pressure relief valve with such a pin setting would have been effective at automatically stopping the pumping operation if pressures were approaching those needed to rupture the pipeline,” wrote Smook. “That the pin did not shear is not in dispute and is compelling evidence against the allegation that the Hurley rig pump was the source of pressure that ruptured the pipeline.” Hurley also claimed ice may have been blocking the pipeline before the contractor arrived. Smook found both explanations — the intact valve pin and ice blockage — were “at least as persuasive as the allegations” made by the BCER investigator in his contravention report. Neither company was penalized. \
Cleanup underway after fuel spill at Campbell River Airport blocks some access - A fuel spill on privately leased land at the Campbell River Airport has been reported to the province, says the City of Campbell River. On Feb. 25, the city was notified of the spill and went on to inform the provincial government and the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The city also says it took swift actions in response to the spill, setting up absorbent materials, such as sock booms and spill pads. Airport Drive, south of the Terminal Building, is closed to vehicles and pedestrians until further notice. Local traffic access is available. The city has also closed trails that may be affected in the dog-walking area at the south end of Airport Drive. Residents are encouraged to stay out of creeks and ditches by the airport while work occurs and to keep pets out of the area, too. The city says it will continue to support the spill response where possible and will update the public when more information is available.
IEA forecasts stronger LNG imports as EU struggles with storage deficits - Europe’s natural gas market has faced a volatile start to 2025, with prices reaching their highest level in two years earlier this month, adding pressure on businesses, consumers, and governments across the region, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports. The main European gas benchmark, the TTF, currently stands at around EUR 47/MWh (USD 14.50/MBtu). While this remains well below the peaks seen in 2022 following the Russia-Ukraine war, it is still roughly double pre-crisis levels. The IEA attributes the rise in prices to several factors, including the halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine since January 2025 and a return to average winter temperatures after two milder seasons, leading to increased gas withdrawals from storage. Additionally, a prolonged period of low wind speeds and limited sunlight in November - known as Dunkelflaute - resulted in an 80% increase in gas consumption compared to the same period in 2023. Global gas markets also remain tight. The IEA expects LNG supply to grow by 5% in 2025, up from 1.5% last year, mainly due to the expansion of North American LNG facilities. However, this increase is partially offset by the loss of Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe. Gas storage levels in the EU are now 24 bcm, or 36%, lower than this time last year. The IEA warns that refilling storage ahead of the next winter will require significantly larger gas inflows than in previous years, increasing Europe's reliance on global LNG markets and adding further pressure to prices.
Shell’s LNG Outlook Predicts Worldwide LNG Demand Up 60% by 2040 --Shell, which dropped “Royal Dutch” from its name after leaving The Netherlands in 2022 due to high taxes and overregulation, is one of the world’s supermajors (oil and gas driller). Shell is also one of (perhaps THE) largest producers and vendors of LNG, or liquefied natural gas, worldwide. The company has just released its ninth annual LNG Outlook 2025 (full copy below), which highlights key trends in 2024 and hauls out the crystal ball to predict where things are heading over the next 15 years. Shell predicts that global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is forecast to rise by around 60% by 2040, which is largely driven by economic growth in Asia, emissions reductions in heavy industry and transport, and the impact of artificial intelligence.
EU’s Clean Industrial Deal Calls for Stronger Natural Gas Market Controls, Relaxed Storage Targets -The European Union ‘s (EU) plans for creating more competitive energy markets while maintaining its climate goals includes a stronger stance on natural gas market oversight and potential changes to its storage rules. In a report published Wednesday, European Commission (EC) leaders laid out the goals of its Clean Industrial Deal initiative aimed at revitalizing European manufacturing and energy transition investments. The action plan coupled incentive plans like investing more than $1 billion in industrial decarbonization technologies with reductions on fossil fuel subsidies that could take effect by the middle of this year. However, the report also highlighted the EU’s current reliance on imported energy, and specifically natural gas, to keep lights on and homes heated.
Russia’s Baltic LNG Plants Stop Exports as U.S. Sanctions Kick In (Reuters) — Small-scale Russian producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) located on the shores of the Baltic Sea, Portovaya LNG and Kryogaz-Vysotsk, have suspended LNG supplies, LSEG ship-tracking data showed on Thursday, as U.S. sanctions have kicked in. Washington last month introduced new sanctions against Russia over the conflict in Ukraine, including against the two plants, with a grace period until February 27. Kryogaz-Vysotsk, controlled by Novatek and Gazprombank, last dispatched a cargo on February 18, with delivery to Belgium's Zeebrugge terminal on February 22, LSEG data shows. LSEG data also shows that Portovaya LNG's last shipment was in mid-January. Tankers that service the plants are all at sea, LSEG data shows. Kryogaz-Vysotsk has an annual production capacity of 820,000 metric tons of LNG while Portovaya LNG can produce 1.5 million tons per year.
Ukraine’s DTEK Eyes Long-Term U.S. LNG Deals with Venture Global, Cheniere (Reuters) — Private Ukrainian gas company DTEK hopes to sign long-term gas import deals with U.S. firms Venture Global or Cheniere next month to supply the country and neighbors Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, its chief executive told Reuters on Tuesday. Maxim Timchenko said DTEK's trading arm is looking to sign a 10-20-year LNG deal, with the gas first being imported into Ukrainian storage facilities and then piped westward. "It's an active discussion of our trading arm -- another round of discussions and meetings will be taking place at (the) CERAWeek (conference) in Houston, so they will be speaking not only to Venture Global but to other big LNG suppliers. Cheniere, for example," the CEO said. DTEK is also in discussions to offtake Qatari LNG, Timchenko added. Ukraine has been a net importer of natural gas from EU countries as its gas production and storage facilities come under heavy fire by Russian forces. Timchenko said the country will likely import 1-2 billion cubic meters from Europe this year, and acknowledged that Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas storage infrastructure threaten the business case for importing and reselling U.S. LNG. When asked if DTEK was concerned about Venture Global's ability to reliably supply cargoes given legal challenges over long-term contracts with major companies, Timchenko said "all parties honored obligations" for a first cargo Venture Global delivered in December on what could become an initial two-year agreement for between six and 12 LNG cargoes.
Asian Buyers Demand Lower Prices for Qatar’s Long-Term LNG Deals -- Major LNG buyers in Asia are seeking lower prices for Qatar’s new long-term supply than the Gulf exporter is offering, complicating negotiations over offtake volumes from the massive Qatari expansion projects, sources familiar with the talks have told Bloomberg. Qatar has a huge expansion program underway to boost its export capacity by a whopping 85% from current levels by 2030. The state giant QatarEnergy is proceeding with the North Field West project, after drilling appraisal wells at the world’s largest natural gas field, the North Field it shares with Iran, and finding “huge additional gas quantities” in the field. The tiny Gulf nation, which is the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, has recently signed huge 27-year agreements for LNG supply to various countries in Europe and Asia, including Italy, France, the Netherlands, and China. However, Qatar typically sells its LNG under long-term supply contracts at a price indexed to Brent Crude prices, and insists on specific ports of delivery for the cargoes. But China and India, two of the biggest buyers of LNG in Asia and the world, are looking for cheaper long-term deals and agreements allowing flexibility in destination. This is complicating the negotiations, according to Bloomberg’s sources. Pakistan, another Qatari customer in Asia,plans to renegotiate its long-term LNG supply deal as it looks to lower its costs for the growing energy demand going forward, Pakistani Petroleum Minister Musadik Malik said earlier this month. “The Qatar agreement is costly, and we will negotiate better terms next year,” Pakistani newspaper The News quoted Malik as telling a parliamentary committee on energy in early February. Overall, shorter-term and more flexible LNG contracts offered by sellers from the United States, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman have been challenging Qatar’s dominance in liquefied natural gas supply to north Asia, according to traders.
Turkey Aims to Finalize Extended Gas Deal with Turkmenistan This Year (Reuters) — Turkey is negotiating an agreement with Turkmenistan to extend a natural gas supply deal for five years, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told the Hurriyet daily on Tuesday, noting that the deal is expected to be finalized within the year. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz are scheduled to meet officials from Turkmenistan in Ankara later in the day. Earlier this month, Bayraktar said that Turkey and Turkmenistan had signed a deal for the supply of Turkmen natural gas to Turkey. The agreement, between Turkey's state-owned pipeline operator BOTAS and Turkmenistan's Turkmengaz, is set to begin on March 1, with gas flows of 1.3 billion cubic meters via Iran. "We want to do this long-term. We have a long-term goal of a swap agreement. We are working on a program that will likely extend to a five-year swap agreement within this year," Hurriyet quoted Bayraktar as saying. Turkey consumes more than 50 billion cubic meters of gas every year, and relies on a mix of piped gas from Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran, along with liquefied natural gas imports from various suppliers. Bayraktar said that Turkey aimed to sign a license for oil and gas exploration in Somali land blocks on March 1. Turkey is conducting exploration off Somalia as part of an agreement with its East African ally.
ADNOC Signs 14-Year LNG Supply Agreement With Indian Oil Corp. ADNOC Gas has signed a 14-year sales and purchase agreement (SPA) with Indian Oil Corp. for the export of up to 1.2 MTPA of liquefied natural gas (LNG). First deliveries will begin in 2026. The agreement is valued in the range of US$7 billion to US$9 billion over its 14-year term. The LNG will be supplied from ADNOC’s Das Island liquefaction facility, which has a production capacity of up to 6 MPTA.
Adnoc Lands Another Supply Deal for Ruwais Export Project — Abu Dhabi National Oil Co., aka Adnoc, agreed to supply Osaka Gas Co. Ltd. with 800,000 tons of LNG for a 15-year term. Osaka, one of Japan’s largest utilities, would primarily be supplied from Adnoc’s Ruwais LNG project under construction in Al Ruwais Industrial City. Adnoc said it would supply the volumes beginning in 2028, when the 9.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) facility is expected to enter service. Adnoc sanctioned the Ruwais project last year. The contract with Osaka converts a tentative agreement the parties previously signed. So far, buyers have committed to purchase 8 Mt/y from Ruwais.
Running on Empty - Global Refining Capacity Expected to Grow at Slowest Pace in 30 Years -Globally, government policies have shifted away from petroleum in recent years toward lower-carbon alternatives such as renewable fuels and electric vehicles (EVs), largely driven by worries about climate change. This has pushed down investment in petroleum refining, and RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice predicts global net refining capacity will increase by only 2.1 MMb/d, or 422 Mb/d annually, from 2025-29 — the slowest rate in 30 years. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss the upcoming refinery closures, proposed projects, and the obstacles new and existing refiners face. A significant amount of global refining capacity (more than 3.8 MMb/d) has been permanently shut down since the start of 2019, primarily triggered by COVID-related lockdowns and the resulting (and unprecedented) drop in demand. These facilities were mainly “non-core” or uncompetitive plants that would have been shuttered in the coming years because of ESG/energy transition factors and declining competitiveness. The facilities closed were primarily in developed countries (U.S., Europe, and Asia). Net capacity additions bounced back to a decades-high 2.1 MMb/d in 2023 after the COVID lockdowns ended and a number of delayed projects finally reached startup. However, that comeback is proving short-lived as net growth fell to 700 Mb/d in 2024. We expect 2025 to decline slightly as the project pipeline empties and additional existing capacity begins to close its doors.So, why do we have such a pessimistic view on future refining capacity growth and the thinning inventory of credible projects? Several factors are proving to be stumbling blocks for new refining projects and, more importantly, preventing them from reaching the finish line. As we noted earlier, the main hurdle is the push to transition away from petroleum and toward lower-carbon forms of energy. Many countries have added new policies to encourage renewable energy and discourage petroleum usage, leading to a significant slowing of demand growth for refined products and an approaching “demand peak.” These policies and regulations have made investing in petroleum refining more difficult, time-consuming and expensive. The energy transition (aided significantly by flat-to-declining populations) will continue to proceed faster in developed countries where demand is well past the peak, such as Europe and Japan, or where demand is topping out, such as the U.S. In these countries, refining capacity is expected to decline as demand falls. But even in some regions where demand growth continues, particularly China and the Middle East, there is a major shift away from fuels-based refinery projects.There are still some lockdown-delayed projects starting up, and we see total capacity additions of more than 1.3 MMb/d in 2025, but significant shutdowns are resulting in a net decrease in refining capacity of about 50 Mb/d this year. We predict a net addition of only 2.1 MMb/d over the next five years (red bars in Figure 1 below), with 3.7 MMb/d of new capacity balanced out by 1.6 MMb/d of planned shutdowns. This averages to just 422 Mb/d per year — the lowest five-year-rolling average since 1995.
India imports €49 billion worth of Russian oil in 3rd year of Ukraine invasion - India, the world's third largest oil consuming and importing nation, bought crude oil worth €49 billion from Russia in the third year of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, a global think tank said.India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This is primarily because Russian oil wasavailable at a significant discount to other international benchmarks due to western sanctions and some European countries shunning purchases.This led to India's imports of Russian oil seeing a dramatic rise, growing from less than 1% of its total crude oil imports to a staggering 40 per cent in a short period. "Russia's stronghold over new markets has solidified in the third year of the invasion. The three biggest buyers, China (€78 billion), India (€49 billion) and Turkey (€34 billion) were responsible for 74% of Russia's total revenues from fossil fuels in the third year of the invasion," Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air said in its latest report. The value of India's import saw an 8% year-on-year increase, it said. Russia's total global fossil fuel earnings in the third year of the invasion reached €242 billion and have totalled €847 billion since the invasion of Ukraine.
Oil Still Washing Ashore in Southern Russia 2 Months After Black Sea Spill - The Moscow Times -- New oil slicks have appeared along the coastlines of southern Russia, regional authorities said Tuesday, two months after a major spill in the Black Sea. Emergency crews discovered fuel oil fragments at 11 of 41 clean-up sites along the southern Krasnodar region’s coast, according to the regional crisis center. Officials in annexed Crimea also reported finding similar oil contamination off its shores in recent days. Russia’s Emergency Situations Ministry said Monday that workers and volunteers had removed 148,000 metric tons of contaminated sand from affected beaches.The spill occurred on Dec. 15 when two aging Russian tankers were damaged in a storm off Krasnodar’s coast, releasing thousands of tons of heavy fuel oil into the sea. Since then, scores of volunteers and emergency crews have worked to clean up the oil.Russia’s environmental watchdog has threatened legal action against those responsible for the disaster. The tankers were operated by Volgatransneft, while the fuel oil on board belonged to state oil giant Rosneft.Environment Minister Alexander Kozlov told President Vladimir Putin last month that cleanup efforts will extend until at least the summer of 2026.Both Putin and Russian scientists have described the spill as one of the country’s worst environmental disasters in recent decades. Environmental groups have reported widespread deaths of marine wildlife and seabirds and warned that up to 10 million more birds remain at risk. The disaster has also cast uncertainty over this summer’s tourist season, with demand for vacations plummeting in the popular Black Sea resort town of Anapa. Despite the crisis, Russian authorities have arranged spring and summer vacations in affected resort areas for disabled children.
Russia continues to sell oil using 'shadow fleet' bought from European shipowners --Russia, under various European sanctions and a $60-per-barrel oil cap since December 2022, is allegedly still selling oil using a 'shadow fleet' of old tankers purchased from Europe. In a report published in early February, the independent journalism platform 'Follow the Money' stated that Western shipowners earned over €6 billion by selling old oil tankers to a shadow fleet carrying Russian oil. The platform reported that the ships were used to transport Russian oil and circumvent sanctions. According to the report, at least 230 ships, mainly from Greece, the UK, and Germany, were sold to the shadow fleet, helping the Kremlin bypass sanctions on Russian oil trade. The shadow fleet, consisting of more than 600 tankers in total, is estimated to carry 70% of all Russian oil exports. Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Transatlantic Security Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, told Anadolu that shadow fleets have existed for many years. Braw explained that these fleets are not officially recognized and consist of ships operating outside the official maritime system, changing ownership frequently. Stating that it is difficult to find the owners of these ships and that they are usually operated by 'plate companies' that have no activities, she said, 'The ships often change flags, and they are flagged under countries that have no maritime expertise for the most part. So it's difficult to track them using the flag registration.' These are vessels that have essentially served a lifetime with an official shipping company, she said and added, 'Then that shipping company sells them to essentially an obscure buyer that then uses them to do the sort of activities that shadow vessels do.'Another characteristic of the shadow vessels is that they lack functioning accident insurance, called P&I insurance, Braw said. Braw stated that they have a 'piece of paper' that the ships in question are insured, but this has no value. She said that when ships follow international rules, they are regularly maintained, regularly inspected, maintained and are flagged in countries that have maritime expertise. 'Their owners can easily be found, and they have insurance. So when there is an accident, the insurance company, the flag state, and the owner get involved,' she explained. 'But when a shadow vessel has an accident or causes an accident, none of that applies,' she said, adding that usually the coastal states, where an accident occurs, have to bear the burden. Braw stated that this creates a significant issue, as coastal states are not responsible for these incidents, yet they are still required to intervene. She explained that, for example, if a shadow vessel explodes, catches fire, or starts sinking, the coastal state is obligated to intervene by extinguishing the fire, rescuing the crew, and preventing oil spills. 'That's a huge problem and we have seen it several times already. The problem will continue to grow because these vessels are not getting any younger and they keep sailing through the waters of countries that then have to intervene and try to limit the damage whenever there is an incident or accident,'
Pipeline Theft Slashes Nigeria LNG’s Capacity by Two-Thirds (Reuters) — Nigeria LNG, a major gas exporter, is operating at only a third of its capacity due to illegal connections by thieves on key gas supply pipelines, the company's chief executive said on Tuesday. Philip Mshelbila told the Nigerian International Energy Summit in Abuja that only two of the company's six processing trains are currently running because three key gas supply pipelines are undergoing repairs. "These are the biggest lines that supply NLNG with gas," he said of the three pipelines. Oil and gas theft and illegal refining is rife in Nigeria's oil-rich delta, with impoverished locals as well as more sophisticated criminal gangs tapping pipelines. Mshelbila said that while there has been some improvement in the security of Nigeria's oil sector, the gas sector remains vulnerable. This insecurity has hindered Nigeria LNG's ability to meet rising global demand, particularly from Europe, where several countries have approached it for supplies. "Since the Russia-Ukraine war, we have been approached by dozens of European and other countries looking for LNG and we are not able to supply because of this (pipeline theft)," Mshelbila said.
Shell pipeline spills oil in Bayelsa, as NOSDRA begins recovery - The National Oil Spill Detection and Response Agency (NOSDRA) has reported an oil spill from Shell’s underwater pipeline in Obololi, Southern Ijaw Local Government area of Bayelsa State, even as it has commenced the recovery of the spilled crude. The agency in a statement signed by its Director-General, Chukwuemeka Woke, said a report of the crude oil spill was received on Monday and a joint investigative visit was initiated immediately to determine the cause of the spill. He said the leak was detected in Shell’s 16-inch Nun River-Kolo Creek pipeline, causing crude oil to spill into the River Nun, affecting communities around Obololi. The statement read, “The agency received a report on Monday, February 17, 2025, of a crude oil spill from Shell Petroleum Development Company 16” Nun River-Kolo creek pipeline at Obololi community in Southern Ijaw LGA, Bayelsa State. “Following the receipt of the report as the lead agency on all matters related to oil spill incidents in Nigeria, the agency convened and held a joint investigation visit to the incident area.” However, Woke said the exact cause of the leak remains unknown as the pipeline is submerged in water. “The JIV was led by NOSDRA and included stakeholders such as Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria, the Bayelsa Ministry of Environment, and representatives of the affected community to establish the circumstances surrounding the incident,” he said. “The JIV aims to recommend necessary regulatory compliance actions to mitigate the spill’s impact. The cause of the spill is unknown because the suspected leak point is submerged in water, making the investigation inconclusive. SPDC is preparing a coffer dam to access the spill point.” Woke added that containment measures were in place, with temporary storage tanks on the way. The director-general said NOSDRA is actively monitoring the situation to ensure appropriate response actions. “SPDC is preparing a coffer dam to enable the team to get access to the spill point. Containment of the spill area has been completed. Temporary storage tanks are in transit to the spill location; and recovery of free-phase oil will commence on Friday, February 21, 2025. “The agency is actively monitoring the ongoing response and continuously evaluating the situation to ensure that appropriate response actions are deployed accordingly. The agency will provide further details as events unfold,” he said.
NOSDRA tackles oil spill from pipeline at Obololi community - The National Oil Spill Detection Response Agency (NOSDRA) has commenced remediation work on the crude oil spill from Shell Petroleum Development Company, SPDC, 16″ Nun River-Kolo Creek pipeline located at Obololi community in Southern Ijaw Local Council of Bayelsa state. NOSDRA Director General, Chukwuemeka Woke, in a statement, said the agency is actively monitoring the ongoing response and continuously evaluating the situation to ensure that appropriate actions are deployed accordingly. According to Woke, they received a report on Monday, February 17, 2025, of a crude oil spill from Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) 16″ Nun River-Kolo creek pipeline at Obololi community in Southern Ijaw LGA, Bayelsa State, and immediately they swung into action to tackle it. He added, “Following the receipt of the report as the lead Agency on all matters related to oil spill incidents in Nigeria, the Agency convened and held a Joint Investigation Visit (JIV) to the incident area on Tuesday, February 18, 2025.” “We led JIV to constitute the investigation team made up of relevant stakeholders including SPDC (the operator), State Ministry of Environment, and the Community to establish the indices around the incident and recommend necessary regulatory compliance actions to mitigate it.” He disclosed that observations and updates were made in line with the cause of the spill which was unknown because the suspected leak point/ pipeline was submerged in the water implying that the JIV was an inconclusive exercise. “SPDC is preparing a coffer dam to enable the team to get access to the spill point; containment of the spill area has been completed; temporary storage tanks are in transit to the spill location; and recovery of free phase oil has commenced on Friday, February 21, 2025,” he said.
Bayelsa govt seeks action on oil spillage {guardian.ng} Governor Douye Diri has decried the severe environmental damage caused by a recent oil spill at Obololi community in Southern Ijaw Local Council of Bayelsa State. The spill, which reportedly arise from a failure in a facility operated by an International Oil Company (IOC), has heightened fears about the health and safety of residents. During a visit to the area, the governor, represented by the Commissioner for Environment, Ebi Ben Ololo, warned community members against using contaminated water for drinking, cooking, or washing. He stressed that exposure to polluted water and aquatic life could result in serious health risks, including waterborne and airborne diseases such as cholera. Diri urged the concerned oil company to take immediate action by providing relief materials, conducting a thorough cleanup in line with international standards, and offering fair compensation to the affected residents. Executive Chairman of Southern Ijaw council area, Target Isaiah Segibo, underlined the community’s long-standing patience despite the lack of social amenities since the oil firm began operations in 1973. HOWEVER, an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain in the state, Festus Daumiebi, has, on behalf of the people of Fonibiri community in the council area, lauded the governor’s developmental efforts. During a live programme, he appreciated Diri for “graciously approving the construction of the Angiama to Eniwari 9KM and Eniwari to Fonibiri 4KM (13) KM Road to link Fonibiri Community and Bomo Clan to the rest parts of the state by motorable road.” In a statement, Daumiebi also thanked the governor for the award and ongoing construction of school projects, while equally calling on him to ensure that the 13km Angiama/Eniwari/Fonibiri highway is awarded to a reputable and competent construction company.
US and Iraq hold talks on quick resumption of key oil pipeline – The US and Iraq discussed the resumption of a major pipeline that can transport oil from the Middle Eastern country to global markets after the link was shut almost since 2023 following regional cost disputes. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani agreed on the need for Iraq to quickly reopen the conduit, according to a Feb 25 statement on the US Department of State website. The potential restart of the pipeline, which Baghdad has said is likely to resume with about 185,000 barrels a day of initial flows, has weighed on oil prices since Iraq said that it was ready to bring it back online. The development comes at a delicate time for energy markets just as US President Donald Trump has been calling for lower oil prices. Crude on Feb 25 fell to the lowest level in 2025 on concerns over economic growth. Iraq has said exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region will remain within its overall Opec+ quota, but the country, which has a poor record of compliance, has not yet clarified how it will achieve that. Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani this week said the country is in touch with Turkey to discuss technical issues before it can resume shipments through the pipeline that runs to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean Sea. The project shut down in March 2023 in a payment dispute, and there have been various instances since then, when officials have claimed a restart was imminent. The US also pushed for a restart in the days after the pipeline was originally shut. Mr Rubio and Mr Al-Sudani also discussed the need for Iraq, which imports gas from Iran, to become energy independent, to reduce Tehran’s influence, and continue efforts to prevent terror group ISIS from resurging in the broader region, according to the statement.
Oil prices steady amid Ukraine peace talks and Iraq export uncertainty - Profit by Pakistan Today --Oil prices remained stable on Monday as markets monitored diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine and awaited clarity on the restart of crude exports from northern Iraq. Brent crude rose 13 cents to $74.56 per barrel by 1103 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude added 11 cents to $70.51. Both benchmarks fell more than $2 on Friday, posting weekly declines of 0.4% for Brent and 0.5% for WTI. The market remains focused on efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which enters its fourth year on Monday. European Union leaders will meet on March 6 to discuss further support for Ukraine, while Russian and U.S. teams are set for talks this week. Sanctions on Russian oil exports continue to affect global supply, but an end to the war would not necessarily increase Russian crude flows due to OPEC+ production limits. Meanwhile, Iraq is preparing to export 185,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan’s oilfields once shipments resume through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, though the timeline remains uncertain.
U.S. Sanctions on Iran and Iraq’s Reaffirmation of its OPEC+ Commitments -- The oil market traded higher on Monday after the U.S. imposed new sanctions against Iran and on Iraq’s reaffirmation of its commitment to the OPEC+ group’s supply agreement. The market also steadied amid the uncertainty of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. On the opening on Sunday night, the market gapped lower from $70.17 to $69.80 amid the news of an expected increase in supply from Iraq. Iraq is expected to export 185,000 bpd from Kurdistan’s oilfield through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline once oil shipments resume. However, the market quickly backfilled its opening gap and traded back over the $70 level after the U.S. imposed a new round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry and Iraq said it would present an updated plan to compensate for any overproduction of its OPEC+ production quotas in recent months. The market traded to a high of $70.88 by mid-morning and remained range bound during the remainder of the session. The April WTI contract settled up 30 cents at $70.70 and the April Brent contract settled up 35 cents at $74.78. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 35 points at $2.4358 and the RB market settling down 1.57 cents at $2.0110. Ukraine enters the fourth year of war with Russia on Monday, hosting European and world leaders for a summit, as it is unsure it can rely on its staunchest ally, the United States. Ukraine hosted the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Antonio Costa and the leaders of Canada, Finland, Denmark, Norway and Sweden to mark the third anniversary. Albania, Britain, Croatia, Czech Republic, Germany, Japan, Moldova, the Netherlands, Poland, Switzerland and Turkey’s leaders spoke by video link. On Sunday, Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy said he was willing to give the presidency if it meant peace, quipping that he could exchange his departure for Ukraine’s entry into NATO. The Iraqi Kurdish government announced it was forming a technical team with the Iraqi oil ministry to inspect the Iraq-Turkey pipeline which has been shuttered for nearly the past two years. Meanwhile the Iraqi oil ministry has contacted Turkish officials for information about the readiness of the pipeline in Turkey to handle the resumption of crude oil exports to Ceyhan. Meanwhile the Iraqi oil ministry said Sunday it had reached agreement with Iraqi Kurdish officials for Iraq to receive around 185,000 b/d of crude oil from Kurdistan for exports once flows resume via the pipeline from Turkey. Reuters reported that behind the scenes recent pressure from the Trump administration appears to have pushed forward the resumption of exports. Iraq said it will submit an updated plan to compensate for overproduction during the previous period. Iraq said it will continue its efforts to compensate the accumulated overproduction while taking into account an anticipated handover of oil for export from the Kurdistan Regional Government. IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in 1.1 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 28th, increasing available refining capacity by 271,000 bpd.
Oil settles higher on fresh Iran sanctions, Iraq commitment to OPEC+ (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Monday as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran and a commitment to compensate for overproduction by Iraq added to concerns of near-term supply tightness, helping the market recover some of Friday's steep losses. Brent crude futures settled up 35 cents, or 0.5%, at $74.78 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $70.70. On Friday Brent notched its lowest close since February 6 while WTI had its lowest settlement so far this year. On Monday, the U.S. Treasury imposed a fresh round of sanctions targeting Iran's oil industry, hitting brokers, tanker operators, and shippers who sell and transport Iranian petroleum. That might have had a modest impact on oil prices, along with the Iraqi oil ministry's reaffirmation of its commitment to the OPEC+ group's supply agreement, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. He cautioned, however, that Iranian crude oil exports remain elevated. "Time will tell if (the sanctions) impact exports," he said. Iraq said it would present an updated plan to compensate for any overproduction of its OPEC+ quotas in recent months. Iraq on Sunday said it will export 185,000 barrels per day from Kurdistan's oilfields through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline once oil shipments resume. Oil prices were bound to recover from the prior session's steep selloff, when expectations of the resumption in northern Iraqi exports and of an end to the war in Ukraine pulled benchmarks more than $2 lower. The market structure has also flashed signs of near-term supply tightness. The premium of front-month Brent futures over the next month's contract was at its highest on Monday since February 11, having climbed steadily over the past week. Others cautioned oil prices could stay under pressure from talks to end the Ukraine war, which could pave the way for more Russian oil onto the market, and a slew of U.S. tariff measures, which could weigh on economic activity and crude oil demand. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday the U.S. is close to a minerals deal with Ukraine as he and French President Emmanuel Macron held talks that covered prospects for ending the Ukraine war despite stark differences on how to proceed. Trump said Washington is 'on time' with tariffs against Canada and Mexico, responding to a question about the deadline ending a previous pause on such action which expires next week. "We're just clearing out room to trade lower and I would be cautious if I was a buyer in the market today," "Just sitting here, waiting for the next big event to happen, and obviously there are plenty of big ones out there that could hit any moment."
Oil prices rise as US sanctions on Iran tighten supply -- Oil prices extended gains for a second consecutive day on Tuesday as fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran heightened concerns over tightening global supply.By 3:40 pm AEDT (4:40 am GMT) Brent crude futures climbed $0.43, or 0.6%, to $75.21 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $0.50 or 0.7%, to $71.20 per barrel.The U.S. government imposed new sanctions on Monday targeting over 30 brokers, tanker operators, and shipping firms involved in transporting Iranian crude. President Donald Trump has reiterated his goal of reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero. ANZ analysts commented in a note to clients: “The U.S’s stance on Iran could significantly reduce Iranian oil exports. Renewed sanctions on Russia and the halt of U.S. purchases of Venezuelan crude oil will add to the complexity. OPEC member states face rising breakeven levels for their oil pricing, putting pressure on their fiscal budgets.”However, gains in oil prices were tempered by concerns over demand. Trump confirmed on Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, set to take effect on March 4, remain on schedule. In Europe, Ukraine hosted European leaders to mark three years since Russia’s invasion, but U.S. officials were notably absent, reflecting Trump's efforts to strengthen ties with Moscow. The market views this shift in U.S.-Russia relations as a potential sign of easing sanctions on Russian oil, which could increase global supply.
The Crude Market Reacted to Bearish Economic News from the U.S. and Germany - The crude market posted an outside trading day after the market erased overnight gains and extended its selling on some bearish economic news from the U.S. and Germany. The market traded higher in overnight trading and posted a high of $70.92 amid the news of the U.S. imposing further sanctions on Iran’s oil industry. However, the market erased those gains and traded below the $70.00 level once again. The market was further pressured by the negative economic news from Germany, which reported a GDP contraction of 0.2% in the final quarter of 2024. The market retraced more than 62% of its move from a low of $63.61 to a high of $77.86 as it plunged to a low of $68.68 on lower than expected U.S. consumer confidence index data. The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence fell at its sharpest pace in 3½ years in February, with 12-month inflation expectations increasing amid concerns over tariffs on imports. The oil market later traded in a sideways trading range as it awaited the release of the weekly petroleum stocks reports. The April WTI contract settled down $1.77 at $68.93 and the April Brent contract settled down $1.76 at $73.02. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 4.55 cents at $2.3903 and the RB market settling down 4.37 cents at $1.9673. U.S. President Trump said Monday he was looking to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline. Even though the original developer has already abandoned the project, the U.S. president in a social media post promised “easy approvals, almost immediate start” for the developer or another pipeline company. Key permits that had been obtained for the development of the project over the past decade have expired as well as parts of the system that had been constructed have been dismantled. Goldman Sachs analysts said crude prices have fluctuated in the mid-$70s for Brent and low $70s for WTI over the past week. It said the positives for prices include President Donald Trump’s additional Iranian sanctions and new EU sanctions on Russia’s shadow fleet and oil storage restrictions. It added that headwinds, include disappointing U.S. macroeconomic data on Friday and reports of a new coronavirus strain in China, alongside the resumption of oil flows from Kurdistan following a two year pause. The bank said there is room for a potential recovery in positioning and valuation for oil and Brent crude prices could increase up to $80/barrel in the second quarter of the year. The Kremlin welcomed what it described as a much more balanced U.S. stance on Ukraine after the United Nations Security Council on Monday adopted a U.S. drafted resolution that took a neutral position on the conflict. On Monday, at the U.N. General Assembly, the United States unsuccessfully opposed a resolution demanding Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. However, in the Security Council, it won approval of a resolution that called for peace, without assigning blame for the war.
Oil prices settle at lowest level of the year as tariff threat hurts demand outlook Oil futures settled Tuesday at their lowest level of the year, with the economy and energy demand expected to take a hit from proposed U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico that may come into effect next week. Prices for oil on Monday had finished a bit higher, finding support in the wake of a fresh round of U.S. sanctions aimed at curtailing Iran's crude exports.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for April delivery fell $1.77, or 1.5%, to settle at $68.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
- -- April Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost $1.76, or 2.4%, at $73.02 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Based on the front-month contracts, Brent and WTI prices ended at their lowest since December, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- March gasoline RBH25 shed 2.2% to $1.97 a gallon, while March heating oil HOH25 lost 1.9% to $2.39 a gallon.
- -- Natural gas for March delivery NGH25 settled at $4.17 per million British thermal units, up 4.2%.
"The outlook for crude prices remains skewed to the downside, with uncertainty over future oil demand as the threat of U.S. tariffs casts a long shadow over global economic growth," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades. On Monday, President Trump indicated that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect next week after the conclusion of a 30-day pause. The tariffs would include a levy of 10% for Canadian energy products. The Moneyist: Trump's tariffs unleashed a wave of uncertainty among investors. Why that's a good thing. Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury and State departments said Monday that they would impose sanctions on over 30 persons and vessels in multiple jurisdictions for their role in brokering the sale and transportation of Iranian petroleum-related products. "The sanctions exacerbate supply risks from one of OPEC's largest producers, with the U.S. aiming to reduce Iran's crude exports to zero. If other OPEC members do not bridge the supply gap, a supply shortfall could follow, potentially raising prices," . The ongoing war in Ukraine also "adds a layer of geopolitical risk, with potential shifts in supply from Russia," he added. "If sanctions on Russia were eased, it could increase global supply, applying downward pressure on prices." While geopolitical tensions could continue to provide short-term support, broader demand concerns and changing supply dynamics may lead to volatility in the oil market.'Hassan Fawaz, GivTrade Overall, "while geopolitical tensions could continue to provide short-term support, broader demand concerns and changing supply dynamics may lead to volatility in the oil market," Fawaz said. Back in the U.S., traders awaited the release of weekly data on U.S. petroleum supplies Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration. On average, analysts expect to see a gain of 1.4 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude inventories for the week ended Feb. 21, according to a survey conducted by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The analysts also forecast supply declines of 700,000 barrels for gasoline and 2 million barrels for distillates.
Oil Prices Edge Higher as U.S. Stockpile Drop Offsets Supply Concerns -- Emirates24|7 -- Oil prices climbed in early Asian trading hours on Wednesday, rebounding from two-month lows in the prior session after an industry report showed a decline in U.S. crude stockpiles. Brent crude oil futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $73.29 a barrel by 0134 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures gained 25 cents, or 0.4%, to $69.18 per barrel. Market sources cited data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating that U.S. crude stocks fell by 640,000 barrels in the week ended February 21. Official stockpile data from the U.S. government is expected later on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had projected a 2.6-million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories. The decline in stockpiles helped ease concerns over rising global oil supply, which, coupled with weak economic data from the U.S. and Germany, had pushed oil prices more than 2% lower on Tuesday. Brent crude settled at its lowest level since December 23, while WTI recorded its weakest close since December 10. U.S. economic data showed consumer confidence in February deteriorated at its sharpest pace in three and a half years, with inflation expectations rising over the next 12 months. In Germany, the economy contracted in the final quarter of 2024 compared to the previous quarter. Oil markets remain wary of the impact of U.S. trade policies, particularly President Donald Trump’s decisions on tariffs against China and other trading partners, which could add pressure to the American economy. Despite fresh U.S. sanctions on Iran that could reduce the country's crude exports by up to 1 million barrels per day, OPEC+ members are preparing to increase supply in the coming months, according to Commodity Context analyst Rory Johnston. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Ukraine have agreed on terms for a draft minerals deal central to Trump's efforts to expedite the end of the war in Ukraine, sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. A resolution to the conflict could potentially pave the way for increased Russian oil exports to the market.
WTI 'Steady' At 2-Month-Lows After Big Crude Draw, No SPR Addition Oil prices in New York steadied this morning after starting the session at its lowest opening price in two months as a souring economic outlook threatened prospects for energy demand and spurred investors to shun riskier assets. A poor reading of US consumer confidence fanned concerns over the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Plans for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to meet with Trump in Washington raised the prospect that Moscow’s crude may again flow freely in the near future. “Trump actions are hurting consumer and business confidence, which again will weaken actual consumption,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB. Crude has lost almost 5% this month as Trump’s aggressive moves on trade stoked investor anxiety at a time when oil traders were already concerned about lackluster consumption in China. Supply issues have also been at the fore, including the possibility of a restart of significant pipeline flows from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, with the US pushing for a resumption. In the US, there was a mixed report from the industry-funded API on commercial inventories. While nationwide stockpiles decreased by 600,000 barrels last week, levels at the key storage hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, were seen rising by a substantial 1.2 million barrels. The government’s numbers will be the deciding factor for the day... API
- Crude -640k
- Cushing +1.2mm
- Gasoline +537k
- Distillates -1.1mm
DOE
- Crude -2.33mm
- Cushing +1.28mm
- Gasoline +369k
- Distillates +3.91mm
Crude stocks declined for the first time in five weeks but distillates inventories built significantly. Stocks at the all-important Cushing Hib rose for the 3rd week in a row to their highest since mid-November... The Trump administration added no crude the SPR for the second straight week, leaving the total crude stock draw the largest since Dec 20th... US Crude production was marginally higher at record highs...Graphics Source: Bloomberg WTI was steady around $69 before and after the official data print...
The EIA Report Showed Unexpected Builds in Distillates and Gasoline Stocks - The crude oil market traded lower on Wednesday after the EIA report showed unexpected builds in distillates and gasoline stocks, signaling weak demand, and a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continued to weigh on sentiment. Overnight, the market mostly treaded water as it continued to trade within Tuesday’s lower trading range. However, the market, which posted a high of $69.28, erased any of its gains and continued to trend lower ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. The oil market sold off to a low of $68.36 in afternoon trading in light of the unexpected builds in distillates stocks of over 3.9 million barrels and a build of 369,000 barrels in gasoline stocks. The market later traded mostly sideways ahead of the close. The April WTI contract settled down 31 cents at $68.62 and the April Brent contract settled down 49 cents at $72.53. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil market settling down 46 points at $2.3443 and the RB market settling down 1.84 cents at $1.9489. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil inventories in the week ending February 21st fell by 2.332 million barrels to 430.2 million barrels. U.S. East Coast crude stocks fell by 1.1 million barrels to 6.9 million barrels, the lowest level since October 2023. Meanwhile, U.S. distillate stocks built by 3.908 million barrels on the week to 120.5 million barrels, with stocks in the Midwest increasing by 700,000 barrels on the week to 34.7 million barrels, the highest level since January 2024. U.S. gasoline stocks increased by 369,000 barrels on the week to 248.3 million barrels. U.S. East Coast gasoline stocks increased by 502,000 barrels to 67.019 million barrels, the highest level since July 2021. U.S. President Donald Trump said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will visit Washington on Friday to sign an agreement on rare earth minerals. Earlier, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said that the success of an initial minerals agreement with the U.S. will depend on President Donald Trump. He said that it was part of broader agreements with the U.S. and could provide security guarantees to Ukraine to ensure a lasting and fair peace. Earlier, Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, said the government would authorize the agreed wording later on Wednesday so it could be signed. He described it as a “preliminary” agreement. Outlining the agreement in televised comments, Ukraine’s Prime Minister said Kyiv would contribute 50% of “all proceeds received from the future monetization of all relevant state-owned natural resource assets and relevant infrastructure”. Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said Russian and U.S. diplomats will meet in Istanbul on Thursday for talks on resolving bilateral disputes that form part of a wider dialogue they see as crucial to ending the Ukraine war. IR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 1.1 million bpd of capacity in the week ending February 28th, increasing available refining capacity by 252,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to increase to 1.18 million bpd in the week ending March 7th.
WTI Jumps to $70 as U.S. Sanctions Rekindle Supply Concerns --Oil prices jumped early on Thursday as concerns about supply with intensified U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela trumped demand woes and the possibility of peace in Ukraine. As of 10:45 a.m, ET on Thursday, the front-month futures contract of the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, was up by more than 2%, trading at $70.09 per barrel, up by 2.14% on the day. The international benchmark, Brent Crude, was up by 1.94% at $73.94.After falling for most of this week, oil prices reversed course on Thursday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a sanction waiver for Chevron. The license to Chevron has allowed the supermajor to return to the South American country and become instrumental for the increase of Venezuela’s crude oil production.Trump cited the lack of electoral reform in Venezuela, along with insufficient action on migration, as reasons for his decision.Chevron has been exporting some 240,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude to the United States daily thanks to the waiver. The amount constitutes a quarter of Venezuela’s total oil production and generates substantial revenues that stay in the Venezuelan economy. U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude oil have averaged almost 270,000 barrels per day(bpd) so far this year, according to ING’s commodities analysts.The increased sanctions pressure on Venezuela adds to President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran, which intensified early this week, when the U.S. imposed additional sanctionson Iran’s shadow fleet. “The United States will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk,” Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said on Monday.Despite the oil price increase early on Thursday, the market remains volatile with choppy trade driven by short-term concerns about supply or demand, waiting for more clarity on tariffs, sanctions, and a possible end to the war in Ukraine.
Oil Futures Rise Following Reversal of Chevron's Venezuelan Permit (DTN) -- Oil futures settled higher on Thursday following the announcement that the Trump administration would terminate Chevron's license to produce and export Venezuelan oil starting this week. The NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures contract for April delivery rose by $1.62 to $70.24 bbl while the front-month ICE Brent rose by $1.41 at $73.94 bbl. The ULSD futures contract for March delivery increased by $0.0492 to $2.3935 gallon while March RBOB futures contract rose by $0.0484 to $1.9973 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.82% to 107.15 against a basket of foreign currencies. U.S. President Donald Trump announced Thursday, Feb. 27, the cancellation of a permit issued by the United States government under Joe Biden's administration, which allowed Chevron to produce and export Venezuelan oil. This action is seen as a Trump administration strategy to put pressure on President Nicolas Maduro's government, which has failed to meet democratic conditions for last July's presidential election and to expedite the transportation of deported Venezuelan immigrants from U.S. territory. In recent months, the Biden and Trump administrations have imposed stricter sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil trades, which were expected to put upward pressure on oil prices. However, high U.S. crude inventory levels and weak global oil demand due to the uncertainty about the trade tariffs war, offset the bullish sentiment causing the two crude benchmarks -- NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures contracts -- to fall to their lowest levels since December this week. Expectations of ample supplies due to the possibility of an end of the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its third year, also contributed to the bearish tone in the oil futures market seen in previous trading sessions. The Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday, Feb. 26, commercial crude oil inventories in the U.S. fell by 2.3 million bbl to 430.2 million bbl for the week ending Feb. 21, which was a larger draw compared to the 640,000 million bbl draw reported by API for the same reference week. Separately, the Department of Labor reported Thursday morning that the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 242,000 in the week ended Feb. 22, an increase of 22,000 from the 220,000 revised level from the previous week. The figure, however, was above the market expectation of 220,000.
Oil climbs more than 2% after Trump cancels Chevron's Venezuela licence (Reuters) - Oil prices rose more than 2% on Thursday as supply concerns resurfaced after U.S. President Donald Trump revoked a license granted to U.S. oil major Chevron to operate in Venezuela. Investors were still keeping an eye on signs of a potential peace deal in Ukraine, which could result in higher Russian oil flows. Brent crude oil futures settled up $1.51, or 2.1%, at $74.04 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose $1.73, or 2.5%, to $70.35. The contracts had settled in the previous session at their lowest levels since December 10. "Markets like clarity as opposed to uncertainty. Unless a clear path is presented on tariffs and Eastern European peace, oil prices will remain on the defensive with sporadic and spontaneous headline-based rallies," said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM. The Chevron licence revocation means the company will no longer be able to export Venezuelan crude. And if Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA exports oil previously exported by Chevron, U.S. refineries would be unable to buy it because of American sanctions. The move also could lead to the negotiation of a fresh agreement between the U.S. producer and state company PDVSA to export crude to destinations other than the U.S., sources close to the talks told Reuters. Chevron exports about 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude from its Venezuela operations, more than a quarter of the country's entire oil output. "Chevron's exit could reduce Venezuela (oil) production, giving OPEC+ capacity to increase output. If this occurs, coastal U.S. refiners could incur higher procurement costs," TD Cowen analysts said in a note. If OPEC+ does not increase supply, it could increase heavy sour prices, which would hit U.S. refiners, the analysts said. Oil prices rose during intraday trading after Reuters reported that OPEC+ is debating whether to raise oil output in April as planned or freeze it as its members struggle to read the global supply picture because of fresh U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran and Russia, eight OPEC+ sources said. "It is my opinion that with Brent crude oil still hovering around $75 per barrel, OPEC+ will delay the restoration of the voluntary production cuts at least through the end of April and possibly through the end of the second quarter," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Also in focus is Trump's involvement in efforts to facilitate a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Trump said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy would visit Washington on Friday to sign an agreement on rare earth minerals, though the Ukrainian leader said the success of talks would hinge on continued U.S. aid. U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, the government confirmed on Thursday, and the loss of momentum appears to have persisted early this quarter amid cold weather and concerns that tariffs will hurt spending through higher prices. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week. A separate unemployment program, reported with a one-week lag, showed no impact yet of the recent mass layoffs of probationary federal government workers.
Markets: Oil trades at 9wk lows as growth concerns weigh -- Oil prices fell during Asian trade on Friday, poised for their first monthly decline since November as global economic uncertainty and trade tensions dampened demand outlooks.By 3:30 pm AEDT (4:30 am GMT) Brent crude futures for May delivery were down US$0.36 or 0.5% at $73.22 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped $0.37 or 0.5% to $69.98 per barrel.U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed on Thursday that 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports will take effect on March 4, alongside an additional 10% duty on Chinese goods.ANZ analysts noted: "The tariffs threaten to disrupt North America’s tightly integrated oil industry and raise demand for U.S. crude to substitute any Canadian or Mexican oil which may be diverted elsewhere. The U.S. imports approximately 4mb/d from Canada and 400kb/d from Mexico."Investor sentiment was also hit by weaker U.S. economic data. Jobless claims in the U.S. rose more than expected last week, while a separate report confirmed a slowdown in fourth-quarter economic growth. Despite these pressures, Brent and WTI crude surged more than 2.1% and 2.5% respectively on Thursday after Trump revoked a licence granted to Chevron, restricting its operations in Venezuela - a move that raised fresh supply concerns.
Oil Slips as Tariff Risks Outweigh Sanctions Oil prices fell by 1% early on Friday as tariff risks and concerns about economic slowdown outweighed sanction risks from the increased U.S. pressure on Iran and Venezuela.As of 10:12 a.m. ET on Friday, the front-month futures of the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, were trading down by 1.56% at $69.23. The international benchmark,Brent Crude, was down by 1.40% at $73.00.Both benchmarks are on track to book their first weekly loss in a month and the first monthly decline since November 2024, amid continued tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and prospects of peace talks to end the war in Ukraine. On Thursday, President Trump said that the proposed – and once deferred by a month – tariffs on Canada and Mexico would go into effect on March 4.In Canada’s case, energy imports would be taxed 10%.The return of trade war fears weighed on oil prices amid concerns that the global economy, including the U.S. economy, could see slowdown in growth, while inflation would rise. Such a scenario would delay the next interest rate cut by the Fed and other central banks.Uncertainty is very high in the oil market right now, which has also led to speculators cutting their exposure to oil and lowering their longs in the two most important crude futures contracts.“Oil prices came under pressure in February as trade war uncertainty overshadowed sanctions-related supply risks,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey saidthis week.The prospects of a peace deal in Ukraine also depressed commodity prices, including crude oil. The energy sector has declined in February “on concerns a global trade war may lead to lower growth and with that demand for fuel products, at a time when OPEC+ is still undecided about crude oil production levels for April and beyond, while ongoing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine also weighed on sentiment,”
Oil prices post a loss in February as U.S.-Ukraine tensions feed uncertainty --Oil futures declined on Friday, with worries about the global economic outlook and rising trade tensions from the Trump administration's tariff plans prompting U.S. and global benchmark prices to post their biggest monthly losses since September. Prices on Friday then finished off at the session's lowest levels after a tense meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dashed hopes for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal that might have eventually led to an end to sanctions on Russia's oil sector.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for April delivery CL.1 CLJ25 fell 59 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $69.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on the front month, prices lost 0.9% for the week and ended 3.8% lower for the month, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- April Brent crude BRNJ25, the global benchmark, declined by 86 cents, or 1.2%, at $73.18 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, to lose 1.7% for the week and 4.7% for the month. The May contract BRN00 BRNK25, which is now the front month, fell 76 cents, or 1%, to $72.81 a barrel.
- -- March gasoline RBH25 lost 1.3% to $1.9703 a gallon, down nearly 3.3% for the month, and March heating oil HOH25 fell 1.7% to $2.3549 a gallon, ending down 5.2% for the month. The March contracts expired at the session's end.
- -- Natural gas for April delivery NGJ25 settled at $3.834 per million British thermal units, down 2.5% Friday, with prices finishing 26% higher for the month.
"Anything that hastens peace initiatives between Russia and Ukraine is bearish" for oil prices, while "anything that hinders peace initiatives between Russia and Ukraine is bullish," said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS, a subsidiary of MarketWatch publisher Dow Jones. The tense meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the White House "really just creates more uncertainty [in terms of] where we go from here," Tariq Zahir, managing member at Tyche Capital Advisors, told MarketWatch. Trump's subsequent post on Truth Social, in which he said Zelensky can "come back when he is ready for Peace," at least gives an opening to a potential deal, Zahir said. For now, Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group, said that the possibility that the war in Ukraine drags on "will add back risk premium" to oil prices. Still, "as we all know, markets don't like uncertainty - whether it's Ukraine peace talks or if tariffs get implemented on Canada crude," Zahir said. Markets should "remain volatile, but at least we will have some clarity on the tariffs with Canada, as the deadline is fast approaching." The U.S. is expected to implement 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico starting Tuesday, with the exception of 10% tariffs on Canadian oil. "So long as President Trump is banging on his trade-war drums, that could sustain the risk aversion across global markets, which, in turn, is likely to keep weighing down oil benchmarks," Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity Group, told MarketWatch early Friday. 'So long as President Trump is banging on his trade-war drums, that could sustain the risk aversion across global markets, which, in turn, is likely to keep weighing down oil benchmarks.'Han Tan, Exinity Oil prices managed to find some support on Thursday after Trump on Wednesday said he was revoking a license issued by the Biden administration that had allowed Chevron Corp. (CVX) to produce oil in Venezuela. That price move, however, followed a drop Wednesday in WTI and Brent to their lowest settlements since Dec. 10. Recent pressure in oil has been tied to worries that proposed tariffs by the Trump administration will undercut global growth. Weak consumer-confidence readings in the U.S. have also raised worries about the health of the consumer. "The fundamental outlook for oil has deteriorated amid growing uncertainties about the health of the global economy and given the looming unknowns of the Trump administration's aggressive global policy stance and fears of a drop in consumer demand,"
US Imposes More Sanctions Targeting Iranian Oil Sales -The US on Monday imposed new sanctions on 30 people and ships over their alleged role in shipping Iranian oil as the Trump administration is attempting to ramp up its so-called “maximum pressure campaign” against Iran.According to the Treasury Department, among the sanctioned are oil brokers in the UAE and Hong Kong, tanker operators and managers in India and China, the head of Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company, and the Iranian Oil Terminals Company.“The United States will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.The purpose of one of Trump’s orders related to Iran is to “drive Iran’s export of oil to zero.” But Iran has found oil markets in Asia in recent years that aren’t afraid of being targeted by US sanctions, and it’s unclear if the new measures will have much of an impact.When Trump signed his maximum pressure executive order, he claimed he was “not happy” about doing so and insisted he wanted a deal with Iran over its nuclear program even though he also acknowledged Iranian leadership doesn’t want a nuclear bomb. However, the new sanctions have made diplomacy with Tehran less likely, based on public comments from Iranian officials.Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who campaigned on engaging in negotiations with the West to get sanctions relief, has said the new sanctions show the US is not “sincere” about diplomacy.After Pezeshkian was sworn in last year, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei opened the door to the possibility of talks with the US, saying there was “no harm” in engaging with the “enemy.”But earlier this month, Khamenei said that talks with the US would not be “wise.” He cited the negotiations to reach the 2015 nuclear deal and the fact that the US under the first Trump administration tore up the deal only a few years later.President Trump and other US officials have hinted military action is on the table if a deal is not reached with Iran, and recent reports have said Israel is looking to attack Iran in the coming months. “I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it. They don’t want to die. Nobody wants to die,” Trump said earlier this month. “If we made the deal, Israel wouldn’t bomb them.”
US sanctions 4 Indian companies involved in trade of Iranian crude oil --The US has sanctioned more than 30 companies, vessels, and individuals worldwide, including four Indian companies, for their alleged involvement in the trade and transportation of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products. The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) described this action as part of a pressure campaign aimed at reducing Iran’s oil exports to zero. According to the OFAC, the sanctioned vessels are responsible for shipping tens of millions of barrels of crude oil, valued at hundreds of millions of dollars. The firms include Austenship Management Private Ltd (Noida), BSM Marine Ltd (Gurgaon), Cosmos Lines (Thanjavur), and Flux Maritime (Navi Mumbai). “Iran continues to rely on a shadowy network of vessels, shippers, and brokers to facilitate its oil sales and fund its destabilising activities,” said Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent. “The US will use all our available tools to target all aspects of Iran’s oil supply chain, and anyone who deals in Iranian oil exposes themselves to significant sanctions risk.” In 2019, the US administration imposed sanctions on Iranian oil, primarily due to concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, its regional influence, and its ballistic missile development. Following the sanctions, Iran began selling crude oil through a "shadow fleet" or "dark fleet" to avoid detection and circumvent international sanctions or regulations. As of now, India does not import crude oil from Iran due to US sanctions, though prior to the sanctions, Iran was one of India's top three sources of crude oil. Among those sanctioned are oil brokers based in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong, tanker operators and managers in India and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the head of Iran’s National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), and the Iranian Oil Terminals Company. The OFAC said these entities and individuals are linked to activities that finance Iran’s destabilising operations. India-based Flux Maritime LLP is responsible for managing a vessel that loaded hundreds of thousands of barrels of heavy Iranian crude oil through a ship-to-ship transfer. Additionally, BSM Marine Limited Liability Partnership, Austinship Management Private Limited, and Cosmos Lines Inc. have been sanctioned for knowingly engaging in significant transactions related to the purchase, acquisition, sale, transport, or marketing of petroleum products or petrochemicals from Iran. This is not the first instance of Indian companies being placed under sanctions for involvement in sanctioned energy transportation and trade through the so-called shadow fleet of tankers. For example, in October, India-based Gabbaro Ship Services was sanctioned for its alleged involvement in the transportation of Iranian oil. In August and September, three India-registered shipping firms were sanctioned by the U.S. over their alleged involvement in transporting liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 project, which is also under American sanctions.
Kurds begin supplying oil to Damascus Kurdish-led authorities in northeast Syria have begun providing oil from local fields they manage to the central government in Damascus, Syrian oil ministry spokesman Ahmed Suleiman told Reuters on Saturday. It was the first public acknowledgement of internal oil deliveries from Syria's oil-rich northeast to the Islamist-run government installed after former leader Bashar al-Assad was toppled by rebels in December. Suleiman said the oil was from fields in the provinces of Hasakeh and Deir el-Zor and that the deliveries took place based on an amended version of a previous arrangement between the Assad government and Kurdish authorities. He said Syria's new leaders had changed articles in that deal that had "served the interests of people linked to the Assad regime". A source from northeast Syria's semi-autonomous administration told Reuters that the deal involved sending 5,000 barrels a day of crude from the Rmeilan field in Hasakeh and other fields in Deir el-Zor province to a refinery in Homs. Syria exported 380,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in 2010, a year before protests against Assad's rule spiralled into a nearly 14-year war that devastated the country's economy and infrastructure - including its oil. Oilfields changed hands multiple times, with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces ultimately capturing the key northeast fields, although U.S. and European sanctions made both legitimate exports and imports difficult. The United States issued a six-month sanctions exemption in January allowing some energy transactions and the European Union is set to suspend its sanctions related to energy, transport and reconstruction. Tal Shoham and Avera Mengistu were released first, in southern Gaza's Rafah. In the interim, Syria is seeking to import oil via local intermediaries after its first post-Assad import tenders garnered little interest from major traders due to sanctions and financial risks, several trade sources told Reuters. The internal oil trade is also a key part of talks between the northeast region and the new authorities in Damascus, which want to bring all regions in Syria under centralised control. Sources said the SDF would likely need to relinquish control of oil revenues as part of any settlement. SDF commander Mazloum Abdi said last month that his force was open to handing over responsibility for oil resources to the new administration, provided the wealth was distributed fairly to all provinces.
Israel Carries Out Airstrikes Across Southern Syria, Netanyahu Vows Troops Will Remain - Israel’s military foray into southern Syria continues to grow this evening, as Israeli warplanes have carried out a series of airstrikes across that part of the country, and threatened additional airstrikes in the future, and an open-ended military occupation.Airstrikes were centered on Syrian military facilities in the Daraa and R if Dimashq Governorates, and appear to be related to Israel’s recent declaration that Syria will not be allowed to have any military assets inside Syrian territory south of its own capital city of Damascus.Syria’s ongoing National Dialogue Conference reacted negatively to that Israeli announcement, and also issued a statement calling on Israel to withdraw its occupation forces from the south. Since the regime change in Syria late last year, Israel has invaded southern Syria, taking over parts of the Quneitra and Daraa Governorates and warning civilians to stop all construction inside their villages. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated earlier in the day that this occupation would be ongoing, telling the AIPAC conference that Israeli troops will remain within southern Syria for the “foreseeable future,” and that his decision to forbid Syrian military assets south of Damascus remains in place. Israel began the attacks a few hours after Netanyahu made those comments, and a few hours after the Syrian conference called for Israel to withdraw. Details are still emerging on the casualties resulting from the attacks, with at least two said to have been killed so far. Israeli media reported ground raids with tanks in addition to airstrikes, though details of those remain unclear.The IDF issued a statement in the wake of the attacks saying that the very existence of military assets south of Damascus constitutes a threat to Israeli citizens, and that the military will continue to act to “remove” such threats.
All These Israeli Agendas Were Planned Long In Advance -Caitlin Johnstone- Israel has announced that it will continue to occupy parts of Syria and Lebanon indefinitely, and that the new Syrian government is forbidden to have a military presence south of Damascus. Israel has also sent tanks into the West Bank for the first time in decades, saying they will remain for at least a year. A week earlier, Netanyahu vowed to “finish the job” against Iran with the help of the Trump administration.The middle east is being dramatically restructured in alignment with longstanding Israeli objectives. Gaza has been destroyed and Trump is pushing a plan for permanently removing all Palestinians from the enclave, and they’re already working on doing the same to the West Bank. Syria has been wholly regime changed allowing Israel to grab up large swathes of land and strategic control. Hezbollah has been significantly weakened and Israel effectively controls southern Lebanon. Who knows what awful things they’re working on with Iran. And I guess it’s worth mentioning as all this unfolds that there are mountainsupon mountains of evidence that Israel knew the October 7 attack was coming and intentionally allowed it to happen, thereby manufacturing support for the advancement of all these agendas. Just the other day a new Hebrew Ynet report alleged that Mohammed Deif almost called off Operation Al-Aqsa Flood at the last second because Hamas noticed Israel wasn’t mobilizing against the coming attack despite their immense surveillance capabilities, suspecting it could be a trap. Well it looks like it was a trap — just maybe not the kind Hamas officials suspected.The deputy speaker for the Israeli Knesset recently said during a radio interview that all adult men in Gaza should be exterminated and called Palestinians “subhumans”, saying “Who is innocent in Gaza?”It’s almost a cliché to say “Imagine if this was said about Jews” at this point, but seriously: imagine if this was said about Jews. Imagine how hard the earth would shake if a parliamentary leader in your nation said this about Jews in Israel. It’d be the only story in the news.
Israeli Official: Gaza Ceasefire Deal on 'Brink of Collapse' Due to Netanyahu's Hardened Stance - The Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal is on the “brink of collapse” due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hardening his stance, an Israeli source has told the Israeli news site Walla, according to The Times of Israel.Netanyahu has delayed the release of over 600 Palestinians who were supposed to be freed from Israeli jails in exchange for six Israeli hostages released by Hamas on Saturday.Netanyahu said he postponed the release over Hamas’s “humiliating” handover ceremonies. Under the agreement, Hamas is due to release four bodies of Israeli hostages on Thursday, the last release under the first phase of the ceasefire deal.The Israeli source speaking to Walla said that Hamas agreed that the release of the four bodies could be done in private without any ceremony. But Netanyahu has hardened his stance further, informing mediators that Hamas’s commitment was not enough and that Israel would only release the more than 600 Palestinians once it received the bodies.“Unfortunately, there are people in the government who are more interested in Hamas’s ceremonies than they are in returning civilians for burial in Israel,” the Israeli official said.The first phase of the ceasefire will expire this Saturday, March 1, and Israel has refused to engage in real negotiations on the second phase. The US, which has backed Netanyahu’s decision to delay the release of Palestinians, is now suggesting phase one could be extended.Under the initial deal, all remaining Israeli hostages were supposed to be released in phase two in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas recently offered to release all Israeli captives “in one go” if Israel agreed to a permanent ceasefire and complete withdrawal, but Netanyahu is now demanding Hamas be disarmed and removed from Gaza.Israel has also been violating the ceasefire deal since it went into effect on January 19, killing more than 100 Palestinians in that time.
Deputy Speaker of Israeli Knesset Says All Adult Men in Gaza Should Be Killed - Nissim Vaturi, the deputy speaker of the Israeli Knesset, has called for all adult men in Gaza to be killed in the latest example of genocidal rhetoric from an Israeli official.“Who is innocent in Gaza? Civilians went out and slaughtered people in cold blood,” Vaturi told Kol BaRama radio. “We need to separate the children and women and kill the adults in Gaza, we are being too considerate.”Vaturi, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party, referred to the Palestinians in Gaza as “subhumans” and “scoundrels” and said no one in the world wants to take them in. “The international community understands that the residents of Gaza are not welcome anywhere and is pushing them towards Israel,” he said.The deputy speaker also said the city of Jenin in the occupied West Bank will soon turn into Gaza as Israel is ramping up its assault there. He said Palestinians being freed from Israeli jails as part of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal should be put in Jenin so they could be “eliminated” later on.“Erase Jenin. Don’t start looking for the terrorists – if there’s a terrorist in the house, take him down, tell the women and children to get out,” Vaturi said.Last year, Vaturi claimed there were “no innocents” in Gaza and called for the entire place to be “burned down” so Israeli soldiers wouldn’t get hurt.“What does it mean to burn? To go in and rip them apart. There should be no thoughts, no considerations. The soldiers of the IDF should not think for one second and be hurt because we need to be humane,” Vaturi said.Such rhetoric from Israeli officials has been cited in South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice to demonstrate Israel’s intent to commit genocide.
Six Palestinian Infants Die Due to Cold in Gaza as Israel Continues to Block Shelters From Entering - At least six Palestinian infants have died in Gaza due to a cold spell as Israel continues to largely block the entrance of tents and mobile homes into the Strip despite agreeing to do so as part of the hostage and ceasefire deal.According to Al Jazeera, Gaza’s Civil Defense recorded the death of six newborn babies due to the cold and lack of heating over the past week. Dr. Saeed Salah, director of the Patient’s Friends Benevolent Society Hospital in Gaza City, said his facility had received eight cases of severe hypothermia, which required intensive care.Hospitals are also struggling to deal with the cases due to Israel’s war on Gaza’s medical infrastructure. “We appeal to the relevant authorities to provide caravans, tents, and fuel to ensure warmth for people and protect children, especially with the arrival of a new low-pressure system,” Dr. Salah said.Hamas said in a statement that the deaths were the result of Israel’s “criminal” policies and called for pressure on Israel to allow the entry of more shelters into Gaza and other humanitarian aid. Thousands of mobile homes are still stranded at the Rafah border crossing, awaiting permission from Israel to enter Gaza.According to Middle East Eye, a medical official said 35,000 families in Gaza are facing severe shortages of basic supplies, including blankets, tents, and heating devices.The deaths due to the cold in Gaza come amid uncertainty over whether the hostage and ceasefire deal will continue to hold as the first phase will expire on Saturday. Israel has also continued to violate the truce by bombing and shooting Palestinians, killing more than 100 since the ceasefire went into effect on January 19.
Palestinian Hostage Released With Obvious Torture Scars; Western Press Ignores Him -Caitlin Johnstone- A Palestinian man who was held captive by Israel for over a year has been released with horrific scarring all over his body. The man, Mohammed Abu Tawila, told local media that the marks came from his captors pouring acid and other chemicals onto his skin in order to torture him. One of his eyes was also destroyed, reportedly in a savage beating.You think you’ve seen the worst thing you can possibly see in this ever-unfolding nightmare, and then you see something like this.And of course the western press has nothing to say about it. If an Israeli hostage were returned with these signs of torture the entire western political-media class would demand that everyone in Gaza be exterminated with poison gas. But he’s Palestinian, so they ignore him.
They're Fetishizing The Bibas Kids' Red Hair To Sell Genocide To White Westerners -- Caitlin Johnstone The aggressive fetishization of the red hair of Ariel and Kfir Bibas is part of an absolutely disgusting war propaganda campaign aimed at white westerners, and we need to talk about it.For those who don’t know, Ariel and Kfir Bibas were two Israeli child hostages who were killed in Gaza along with their mother in the early weeks of Israel’s genocidal onslaught upon the enclave. Israel claims without evidence that Hamas murdered them with their bare hands, while common sense says it’s much more likely that they died from Israel’s scorched-earth bombing campaign along with the many other women and children who were being bombed to death every day in the same area during that time. Israel hasenlisted the help of Chen Kugel — the forensic pathologist who helped promote the bogus atrocity propaganda about “beheaded babies” on October 7 — to market its version of events regarding the Bibas family.Israel and its supporters have been forcefully hammering on this narrative that Hamas murdered these two little children with their bare hands in order to manufacture support for ending the ceasefire and resuming Israel’s daily massacres across the Gaza Strip, and lately it’s been taking an even creepier turn. In Israel and throughout the western world, the fact that these children had red hair is being aggressively pushed into public attention at every opportunity. Israel’s foreign ministry has released a brazenly propagandistic video featuring an AI image of a redheaded child while a narrator says Hamas murdered the Bibas children, asserting that “from today, every redhead will remind us: Hamas murdered them, and Hamas will do it again — unless it’s wiped out.”This is pretty standard babies-on-bayonets atrocity propaganda, but it’s done with a twist — a highly racialized one.Throughout the Israel-aligned world, the color orange is being used by government leaders to mourn the deaths of these children in the most public forums possible. Landmarks like the Empire State Building, the Eiffel Tower, andthe Brandenburg Gate have all been illuminated in orange lights explicitly to commemorate the ginger Bibas children, and orange balloons have been released throughout Israel and the west in their honor. Why all this emphasis on the redheadedness of these children? Why make such a big deal about a seemingly trivial detail in their lives? Well the answer is simple but ugly: it reminds westerners that these children were not like the dark children whose deaths we’ve been told to ignore for the last year and a half. It reminds us that these children were white. Look at any photo of the Bibas kids and you will see children who look just like the white children you’ll see in any western nation. Westerners will look at them and see their own children, or children in their own community. The propagandists noticed the potential in this long ago, which was why they began ramping up the outrage machine as soon as a ceasefire was announced,pretending they didn’t know the children were already dead and promising vengeance and hellfire if they weren’t returned alive. This is why when Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement in English the other day, he produced an enlarged photo of the children and spent some time pointing at them as he spoke. He wanted westerners to see that these were not the kind of children we were told to be indifferent toward as they were butchered by the thousands in Gaza. He wanted to make sure we could all see that they were white.The idea, as with so much Israel apologia, is to generate sympathy. If you sympathize with the children, you are more susceptible to narratives saying that Hamas must be destroyed and the ceasefire must end in order to avenge their deaths. If you sympathize with Israel, you are more likely to trust its narratives about what happened and what should happen in response. The western propaganda machine has spent generations killing off all sympathy for its brown-skinned victims in the global south, but our sympathy for white children has been left intact.Propagandists are fetishizing the red hair of two dead white kids to market the reignition of the Gaza holocaust to white westerners. Israel apologists will deny this, but that’s plainly what’s happening. They couldn’t be more obvious about it.
Canadian Author Yves Engler Released After Five Days in Jail for Pro-Palestine Social Media Posts -Yves Engler, a prominent Canadian author and activist, was released from jail on Monday after spending five days behind bars for social media posts that were critical of an outspoken supporter of Israel.Last Tuesday, Engler, a contributor to Antiwar.com, was contacted by Montreal police to inform him that he would be arrested for comments he made on X (formerly Twitter) in replies to posts from Dahlia Kurtz, a pro-Israel activist and staunch supporter of the genocidal war Israel has waged on Gaza.After being contacted by police, Engler shared the news that he would be arrested for calling Kurtz a “genocide” supporter and a “fascist” in response to her “racist, violent anti-Palestinian” posts. Engler said Kurtz frequently “calls for state violence against those challenging Canadian complicity in genocide.”Kurtz claimed that Engler was harassing her even though her posts were public and X has a feature that allows users to block other users. “Kurtz has chosen not to block me but instead pursue criminal charges,” Engler said.After writing about his situation and getting thousands of supporters to call for the charges to be dropped, the Montreal police then claimed Engler was harassing them and trying to “interfere” in a police investigation, tacking on charges. “Angry at receiving emails and my article — the police were seeking release conditions barring me from discussing the charges levelled against me — the police are now claiming I’m victimizing them,” Engler said.After being hit with the new charges, Engler was imprisoned for five days until he saw a judge on Monday and was released on bail. He is due back in court on April 25.“Rather than devoting policing and judicial resources to harassing critics of IsraelI violence, the police and crown should be pursuing Canadians who’ve been fighting in the Israeli military for potentially violating Canada’s Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act,” Engler said in a statement following his release.While he still has to appear in court, Engler said the terms of his release were a “free speech win” because there were no restrictions on his ability to discuss the charges against him. “The judge effectively forced the crown to drop its bid to muzzle me,” he said.Engler said the “crown should immediately drop all charges against me, apologize & compensate me for my imprisonment.”In an interview with Middle East Eye, Engler said his arrest was part of a larger crackdown on free speech in Canada meant to discourage pro-Palestinian activism. “Less than two weeks ago, I spoke on a webinar with a lawyer from the British Columbia Civil Liberties Association, and it was titled, The New McCarthyism in Canada,” he told MEE.“It was all about the targeting of those opposing Canadian complicity in Israel’s apartheid and genocide. We went through a whole bunch of examples of people who’ve been targeted. Canada has, for more than a century, provided all kinds of support for Zionism and for Palestinian dispossession. The targeting of those opposing Israel’s crimes is just one of the innumerable ways that Canada has assisted in Palestinian dispossession,” Engler added.
Voters flock to political extremes in Germany as the centrist parties stumble— Centrist parties struggled in Germany's election on Sunday, with former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) recording its worst-ever result as many voters shifted to the extreme right and left.Speaking in Berlin soon after exit polls were released on Sunday night, Scholz said it was a "bitter" defeat.His SPD party got just 16.4% of the vote, according to preliminary figures, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its affiliate, the Christian Social Union (CSU), secured the largest share of the vote, with 28.5%. Although this means the conservative alliance won the election, it was still their second-worst result ever and below the closely watched 30% mark.Parties that have traditionally made up the political fringes recorded significant gains, however, as voters flocked to the extremes. As widely expected, the far-right Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) doubled its vote share from the last election to just over 20% on Sunday, making it the second biggest force in Germany's parliament.This strength will "serve as a reminder to centrist parties to swiftly address the country's multiple challenges – or face potentially even greater electoral upheaval at the next election," Carsten Nickel, managing director at Teneo, said in a note on Sunday night.The far-left Die Linke party benefitted from an unexpected show of support, defying expectations to achieve 8.8% of the vote, up from 4.9% in the 2021 election. Just a few weeks ago it was unclear whether the party would even cross the 5% hurdle needed to enter Germany's parliament."The extreme — extreme right, extreme left — clearly came to close to 30% and this has made the entire German political landscape more fragmented," Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, told CNBC on Monday in Berlin. The success of the fringe parties can largely be attributed to the hotly contested topic of migration, according to Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg."The polarizing debate about migration has benefitted the political extremes," he told CNBC. "Most importantly, it has energized the minority of Germans who want open borders for uninvited migrants and refugees. These voters have flocked to Die Linke, the only party fully in favor of that," Schmieding said in emailed comments.Germany has been engulfed in a fiery debate about migration throughout the election campaign as several parties used violent attacks in Germany committed by people due to be deported or with a foreign background to push for tighter immigration laws. CDU-CSU chief and likely chancellor-to-be Friedrich Merz earlier this year got into hot water for pushing a non-binding motion on migration policy, that he had spearheaded, through parliament with support of the AfD. This marked the first time in Germany's postwar history that a majority was achieved with the help of the far right.
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