Fed minutes: Most officials supported further rate cuts as worries about jobs rose (AP) — Most members of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate setting committee supported further reductions to its key interest rate this year, according to minutes from last month’s meeting released Wednesday. A majority of Fed officials felt that the risk unemployment would rise had worsened since their previous meeting in July, while the risk of rising inflation “had either diminished or not increased,” the minutes said. As a result, the central bank decided at its Sept. 16-17 meeting to reduce its key rate by a quarter-point to about 4.1%, its first cut this year. Rate cuts by the Fed can gradually lower borrowing costs for things like mortgages, auto loans, and business loans, encouraging more spending and hiring. Still, the minutes underscored the deep division on the 19-person committee between those who feel that the Fed’s short-term rate is too high and weighing on the economy, and those who point to persistent inflation that remains above the central bank’s 2% target as evidence that the Fed needs to be cautious about reducing rates. Only one official formally dissented from the quarter-point cut: Stephen Miran, who was appointed by President Donald Trump and was approved by the Senate just hours before the meeting began. He supported a larger, half-point cut instead. But the minutes noted that “a few” policymakers said they could have supported keeping rates unchanged, or said that “there was merit” in such a step. The differences help explain Chair Jerome Powell’s statements during the news conference that followed the meeting: “There are no risk-free paths now. It’s not incredibly obvious what to do.” Miran said in remarks Tuesday that he thinks inflation will steadily decline back toward the Fed’s 2% target, despite Trump’s tariffs, and as a result he doesn’t think the Fed’s rate needs to be nearly as high as it is. Rental costs are steadily declining and will bring down inflation, he said, while tariff revenue will reduce the government’s budget deficit and reduce longer-term interest rates, which gives the Fed more room to cut. Yet many other Fed officials remain concerned about stubbornly high inflation, the minutes showed. Jeffrey Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve’s Kansas City branch, said in a speech Monday that “inflation is too high” and argued that the Fed should keep rates high enough to cool demand and prevent inflation from worsening. And Austan Goolsbee, president of the Fed’s Chicago branch, said in an interview Friday with The Associated Press that he supported a cautious approach toward more cuts, and wanted to see evidence that inflation would cool further. “I am a little uneasy with front loading rate cuts, presuming that those upticks in inflation will just go away,” he said. The minutes provide insight into how the Fed’s policymakers were thinking last month about inflation, interest rates, and hiring. Since then, however, the federal government shutdown has cut off the flow of economic data that the Fed relies on to inform its decisions. The September jobs report wasn’t issued as scheduled last Friday, and if the shutdown continues, it could also delay the release of the inflation report set for next Wednesday.
FOMC Minutes Signal Dovish Policy Tilt, But 'Majority' Fear Inflation Upside Risks --Since the last FOMC meeting (when The fed cut rates by 25bps with one dissent for 50bps on Sept 17th), gold has gone to the moon, stocks are higher (as is the dollar) while bonds are down modestly... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. As a reminder, at his post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell characterized the rate cut as a risk management decision, responding to meaningful downside risks to the labor market, but stressed that he does not feel the need to move quickly on rates. Despite the lack of data (due to the government shutdown), the labor market is cooling, and now policymakers are turning their attention to that side of the mandate (though we note that housing data saw a huge upside surprise while soft survey data since the FOMC meeting has weakened)... Powell said that moving rates down slightly supports a more neutral policy stance and balances risks to employment and inflation. The government shutdown is seen as complicating the Fed's data-dependent policy approach, with key employment and inflation releases (including weekly jobless claims, September payrolls, and CPI reports) delayed; analysts say this could cloud judgment for the October FOMC meeting, increasing uncertainty over further rate cuts amid the Committee's divided views on inflation, GDP growth, and labor market resilience. Interestingly, the odds of a 25bps cut in Oct (29th) has risen from 75% to 95% since the last FOMC meeting while the odds of an additional cut in December has slipped to just above 80%... Source: Bloomberg The Fed Chair emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach, guided by incoming data, and noted that markets are pricing in a path of cuts, but the Fed is focused on the data rather than market expectations. Current market expectations are for 44bps of cuts in 2025 (unchanged since the meeting) and 63bps of cuts in 2026 (hawkishly lower than the 73bps at the meeting). Powell has spoken again after the FOMC meeting and said the Committee will continue balancing high inflation risks against a slowing job market in upcoming rate decisions, maintaining flexibility rather than a preset path. So, what does The Fed want us to know it was thinking during the meeting? Almost all participants supported 25bps cut to Fed funds rate at the September meeting. “Most judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of this year,” according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s Sept. 16-17 meeting. One participant preferred a 50bps rate cut at last month’s meeting. Some noted financial conditions suggested policy may not be particularly restrictive, those participants judged a cautious approach to future policy was warranted. “A few participants stated there was merit in keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting or that they could have supported such a decision,” the minutes said. "Around half" of Fed officials saw another two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 (which we already knew from the Dot Plot). Most participants judged the downside risks to employment had increased, upside risks to inflation had either diminished or not increased. The record of the meeting also showed “a majority of participants emphasized upside risks to their outlooks for inflation.” A few participants noted the standing Repo facility would help keep the Fed funds rate in the target range and ensure money market pressures would not disrupt ongoing quantitative tightening. Fed staff revised up the GDP growth projection for 2025 through 2028. Equity prices continued to rise over the intermeeting period and stood very close to record highs despite the recent weaker-than-expected employment reports. A few participants commented that the agricultural sector continued to face headwinds because of low crop prices and high input costs. Read the full minutes below:
Fed's Barr skeptical that inflation has been tamed --Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said he is worried that the persistently high inflation rate observed in recent months could lead to higher consumer expectations of inflation over the long run, a phenomenon that would likely necessitate higher interest rates to counter.
- Key insight: Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said in a speech Thursday that he fears the way tariff price increases are being passed on to consumers could result in an unmooring of inflation expectations, potentially leading to more inflation — and higher interest rates — down the road.
- Expert quote: "While, in principle, tariffs are a one-time increase in prices and should not sustainably raise inflation, that may not be the case if prices keep rising month after month and affect expectations." — Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr
- What's at stake: Barr's views come in contrast with other Fed officials' recent remarks, which focused on the risks to the labor market of maintaining higher interest rates for too long.
Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said in a speech Thursday that he fears the gradual pace of price increases from tariffs being passed on to consumers may prolong the one-time inflationary effect of the tariffs to the point where it affects consumers' inflation expectations.
Court's delay in Cook case hints at unique thinking for Fed --The Supreme Court's decision to delay ruling on Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook's case until early next year is being viewed by some legal experts as a potential positive sign for the central bank's independence.
- Key Insight: In other challenges involving removals at independent agencies, the Supreme Court has allowed dismissals to stand while litigation is ongoing. However, Cook's case appears to be different, suggesting to some that the court is treading more carefully in its decision-making.
- Expert Quote: "The court's decision to allow her to continue serving — for now — increases my confidence that it will ultimately rule in her favor on the merits." — Jeremy Kress, University of Michigan Ross School of Business
- What's at stake: Market watchers have echoed concerns that removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the merits of her litigation are ruled on could cause disarray in financial markets.
Legal experts say the Supreme Court's decision not to immediately rule on a request to remove Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook from office suggests that, whatever the court's views on independent agencies may be, it views the central bank differently.
Yields Jump After Ugly 10Y Auction Tails, Foreign Demand Tumbles -After yesterday's ugly 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39 billion in 10Y paper (technically a 9 Year, 10 Month reopening of cusip NT4), and the reception was again rather disappointing. The note priced at a high yield of 4.117%, up from 4.033% in Sept, but except for that one month, it was the lowest since Oct 2024. The auction also tailed the 4.114% When Issued by 0.3bps, following last month's stop and was the 2nd tail in the last 8 auctions. The bid to cover dropped from 2.65% to 2.478%, which while not the worst in the past year wasn't too far off, and was well below the 2.57 six-auction average. The internals were also ugly, with Indirects (aka foreign bidders) plunging from 83.1% to 66.8%, which also was below the six-auction average of 73.7%. And with Directs taking down 24.1%, or the highest in 11 years... ... Dealers were left with a modest 9.1%, below the recent average of 10.0%, but above last month's record low of 4.2%.
7 in 10 say US economy on wrong track: Survey -Nearly 70 percent of respondents to a Fannie Mae survey feel the U.S. economy is not on the right track. Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey found that 67 percent of respondents think the economy is going in the wrong direction, with just 32 percent believing it is going in the right direction. That represents a slight change from August, when 64 percent of survey respondents felt the economy was on the wrong track. Last September, 68 percent of respondents felt the economy was heading in the wrong direction. Americans are feeling even worse about the housing market, a key part of economic life. Just 27 percent of respondents believe it is a good time to buy a home, while 73 percent believe it’s a bad time to do so. This does represent a slightly better outlook than last September, when 19 percent of respondents said it was a good time to buy a home and 81 percent thought it was a bad time. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED), the average price of a home sold in the U.S. in the second quarter of 2025 was $512,800, a slight decrease relative to first quarter’s average of $514,200.According to the Fannie Mae survey, 40 percent of respondents believe home prices will increase over the next year, with 22 percent believing they will decrease and 38 percent believing they will stay the same. As of Thursday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate for a home is 6.34 percent, according to FRED, a slight decrease relative to the average of 6.72 percent at the end of October 2024.Respondents to the Fannie Mae survey are close to split on whether and how mortgage rates will change over the next 12 months, with 30 percent believing they will increase, 32 percent believing they will decrease and 37 believing they will stay the same. The survey polled 1,086 individuals from Sept. 2 to Sept. 22, and has a margin of error of 3.79 percent.
'There will start to be layoffs' if Trump decides shutdown talks have stalled, Hassett says - White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Sunday that layoffs for federal employees will begin if President Donald Trump decides that congressional negotiations to end the government shutdown "are absolutely going nowhere.""I think that everybody's still hopeful that when we get a fresh start at the beginning of the week, that we can get the Democrats to see that it's just common sense to avoid layoffs like that," Hassett said on CNN's "State of the Union."His comments come as the government shutdown enters its fifth day, with no clear offramp in sight.Democrats are holding their ground on their health-care demands, pushing to include a permanent extension of enhanced premium tax credits in any government funding legislation.Republicans, however, argue that those conversations should happen in December — not as part of government shutdown negotiations — escalating the standoff.Democrats continue to dig in on their demands as the shutdown enters a new week.The Senate again on Friday failed to pass two funding bills that would have ended the shutdown. The Republican measure would have funded the government through late November, while Democrats' version included additional health-care funding.The resolutions previously failed multiple times in the upper chamber last week.The Trump administration has repeatedly warned of mass layoffs during a government shutdown, saying last week that they would be "imminent."Trump also said that the shutdown offered him an "unprecedented opportunity" to slash the size of federal agencies and lay off government workers, although the administration has not yet followed through on its threat.Hassett said Sunday that Trump and Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought are "lining things up and getting ready to act if they have to, but hoping that they don't."Still, Hassett expressed optimism that negotiations this week could resolve the impasse."We think the Democrats, there's a chance that they'll be reasonable once they get back into town on Monday," Hassett said on CNN."And if they are, then I think there's no reason for those layoffs."
Senate rejects dueling bills to end government shutdown --The Senate on Monday pushed the government shutdown to the one-week mark as Democrats blocked the GOP’s “clean” stopgap funding bill from advancing for a fifth time. Senators voted 52-42 on the House-passed bill, which needed 60 votes to advance and would have funded the government at Biden-era spending levels until late November. The tally has remained virtually unchanged, other than absences, since the shutdown started last Wednesday. The trio of Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Angus King (I-Maine) and John Fetterman (D-Pa.) crossed over to vote with Republicans, just as they did three times last week. But no other Democrats joined them, leaving the majority party frustrated that it has been unable to win over more votes. Democrats are demanding the stopgap bill include an extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits that are slated to expire at the end of the year. “I’m wondering just what exactly Democrats think they’re gaining from all of this. I guess they’re getting points from the far-left interest groups they’ve been coordinating their shutdown strategy with,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said on the floor earlier Monday. “But I highly doubt that they’re earning a lot of points with everyday, hardworking Americans.” The vote marks the latest sign of stalemate between the two sides. While rank-and-file lawmakers have met at times over the past week to ponder a pathway forward, Thune has made clear he has no reason to meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) at this point. The chamber on Monday also voted along party lines against the Democratic stopgap bill that would attach several health care provisions to an extension of government funding. “We’re ready to work with Republicans to reopen the government and end the health care crisis that faces tens of millions of Americans,” Schumer said in floor remarks. “But it takes two sides to have a negotiation. We need the Senate Republicans and House Republicans — and the president — to come to the table.” With little action, Democrats have grown particularly keen on the idea of making President Trump take a more active role in discussions, especially as Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have shown little willingness to back off their positions. Trump indicated to reporters Monday that he was willing to make a deal with Democrats on the expiring ACA credits, which have been at the heart of the Democratic argument. “We have a negotiation going on right now with the Democrats that could lead to very good things. And I’m talking about good things with regard to health care,” Trump said in the Oval Office.Democratic congressional leaders retorted that such talks are not happening at the moment, even though they would welcome the negotiations. “Trump’s claim isn’t true — but if he’s finally ready to work with Democrats, we’ll be at the table,” Schumer said. “If President Trump and Republicans are finally ready to sit down and get something done on health care for American families, Democrats will be there — ready to make it happen.”
Greene ‘disgusted’ if health care tax credits expire and premiums double -- Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) signaled a willingness to negotiate with Democrats on their health care demands, breaking with her party on an issue at the core of the government shutdown standoff. In a lengthy post on the social platform X, Greene said she’s “absolutely disgusted” that health insurance premiums could double if the Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits expire, even as she stressed her strong opposition to the Obama-era legislation and to health insurance in general. “But I’m going to go against everyone on this issue because when the tax credits expire this year my own adult children’s insurance premiums for 2026 are going to DOUBLE, along with all the wonderful families and hard-working people in my district,” Greene said in the post. Greene made clear that she does not support giving health care to immigrants lacking permanent legal status in the U.S. — a frequent GOP characterization of the Democratic position — but said she is committed to solving the issue for Americans. “No I’m not towing the party line on this, or playing loyalty games. I’m a Republican and won’t vote for illegals to have any tax payer funded healthcare or benefits,” Greene said. “I’m AMERICA ONLY!!!” “I’m carving my own lane,” she continued. “And I’m absolutely disgusted that health insurance premiums will DOUBLE if the tax credits expire this year.” Greene, who has broken with her party on several key issues in the past, slammed her fellow Republicans for failing to try and find a solution to the looming health care premium increase, saying the country should prioritize that issue over funding for Ukraine and Israel.
Donald Trump urges reopening government before health talks - President Trump on Monday called on Democrats to reopen the government, saying he will only discuss a potential deal on extending health care tax credits once they support the GOP funding proposal. In a statement on Truth Social, Trump appeared to shift from his earlier comments on Monday, when he signaled he was open to a deal with Democrats on health care, an issue at the core of the shutdown debate. “Democrats have SHUT DOWN the United States Government right in the midst of one of the most successful Economies, including a Record Stock Market, that our Country has ever had. This has sadly affected so many programs, services, and other elements of Society that Americans rely on — And it should not have happened,” Trump said in a Truth Social post Monday evening. “I am happy to work with the Democrats on their Failed Healthcare Policies, or anything else, but first they must allow our Government to re-open. In fact, they should open our Government tonight!” he continued. Trump, earlier Monday, indicated he was open to a deal with Democrats on health care, telling reporters, “We have a negotiation going on right now with the Democrats that could lead to very good things.” “And I’m talking about good things with regard to health care,” Trump said in the Oval Office. He declined to say whether he was meeting with Democratic leaders. Asked if he is open to making a deal on Affordable Care Act subsidies, which Democrats want to see extended ahead of potential premium increases, Trump said he would be. “If we made the right deal, I’d make a deal. Sure,” Trump said. “You have subsidies, that’s the problem with ObamaCare. The subsidies are so much, it’s billions and billions of dollars is being wasted. And we could have a much better health care than we have right now,” he continued. “And we’re talking to them. I’m not saying that’s going to happen.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) pushed back on Trump’s claim that any talks with Democrats were taking place with White House officials. “I do not know of any Democrats who have spoken to President Trump or members of his administration on this issue of reopening the government, enacting a bipartisan spending agreement, and addressing the Republican health care crisis,” Jeffries told reporters in the Capitol, where House GOP leaders canceled votes all week.
Marjorie Taylor Greene's defection highlights Republican health care cracks in shutdown - -Shutdown jockeying over health care is intensifying, with Republicans showing some cracks in their unity and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.) insisting Democrats will only agree to a permanent extension of enhanced ObamaCare subsidies. President Trump and Republicans have sought to raise the pressure on Democrats to reopen the government by threatening mass firings of federal workers and withholding their back pay, but the GOP also is sending signals that Democratic attacks on health care are making them worry. Some Republican allies of Trump have been warning for months about the political consequences of failing to extend the enhanced subsidies, and Trump on Monday evening at the White House expressed an openness to working out an agreement on health care that could end the shutdown. Trump later seemed to backtrack, writing on his Truth Social platform that no deal would be done until Democrats vote to fund the government — which they say they won’t do without a deal on a permanent extension. Jeffries outright rejected the idea of a one-year extension Tuesday, a bipartisan proposal being pushed by Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), and other Republicans seen as vulnerable in next year’s midterm elections. Jeffries said a one-year extension is a “nonstarter” that won’t get Democratic support. “To think that Democrats are going to go along with a one-year extension from a group of people — meaning the Republicans — who just permanently extended massive tax breaks for their billionaire donors? It’s a laughable proposition,” he said. Hours after Trump’s comments Monday, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) released a long post on the social platform X that ripped her party over the subsidies issue. “I’m absolutely disgusted that health insurance premiums will DOUBLE if the tax credits expire this year,” Greene wrote, a message that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) read aloud on the Senate floor Tuesday morning. “Rep. Greene is absolutely right,” he said. Greene’s criticism was dismissed by Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who said she was ill-informed. “Congresswoman Greene does not serve on the committees of jurisdiction to deal with those specialized issues, and she’s probably not read [in on some of that] because it’s still been sort of in their silos of the people who specialize in those issues,” Johnson told reporters in the Capitol. Johnson, who has kept members back in their home districts to up the pressure on Senate Democrats, said House Republicans would discuss the matter further when they return to Washington but added that won’t happen until Democrats reopen the government.
White House floats not paying furloughed feds - Federal workers sent home by this government shutdown have taken some comfort in a recent law that ensures furloughed employees get paid eventually. That back pay isn’t a sure thing, a new White House memo contends. A draft Oct. 3 memo by White House Office of Management and Budget General Counsel Mark Paoletta for White House budget director Russ Vought suggests that furloughed government workers would not be automatically provided back pay when Congress eventually reaches a deal on funding the government. That memo, provided to POLITICO’s E&E News by the White House on Tuesday, was first reported by Axios. The White House legal opinion defies the expectations of furloughed federal workers and lawmakers who previously backed a law to ensure that those employees would receive back pay after government shutdowns. President Donald Trump signed the bipartisan law requiring back pay after a January 2019 government shutdown. An effort to deny back pay to some 750,000 workers who could be furloughed during this shutdown would likely draw legal challenges. For now, the White House’s suggestion is fueling additional uncertainty and anger among federal employees and among politicians who worked to require retroactive pay for furloughed workers. The White House memo suggests that the legislation ending the funding lapse for the government would need to include specific language to provide funds for the back pay of furloughed workers, instead of those funds being provided automatically.The memo states that the “excepted” federal employees — those who work during the shutdown — must be provided back pay once funding is available. The law, titled the “Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019,” states that “Excepted employees are required to work during a lapse, and therefore the government incurs binding legal obligations for their salaries which must be paid once an Act providing appropriations for those salaries is enacted.” Federal employees and the unions that represent them see the suggestion of withholding back pay as the latest White House effort to threaten government workers as the shutdown negotiations drag on. The Trump administration has repeatedly suggested it might conduct mass layoffs of government employees as a cost-saving mechanism during the shutdown.“It’s just another attack on all of the benefits federal workers get as public servants,” “It will make EPA workers more concerned about their families’ welfare and their ability to survive this shutdown, which will lead to a more stressed workforce,” Cantello added. That could hurt their efforts to protect public health and the environment.
U.S. air traffic control staffing hit for second day, delaying flights -Air traffic control staffing issues are delaying flights for a second straight day at numerous U.S. airports as the government shutdown reaches its seventh day, the Federal Aviation Administration said in a notice on Tuesday. The FAA said many flights were being delayed at Nashville and Newark airports, among others. Arriving flights were being held for up to 30 minutes at Newark due to the staffing issues. Nashville air traffic control is facing significant staffing issues and will curtail operations later on Tuesday, the FAA said. Approach control will be taken over later by Memphis Center, it added. The FAA is reducing the number of arriving flights per hour at Chicago O'Hare, citing staffing, with average delays of 41 minutes. The FAA also reported staffing issues at Atlanta Air Route Traffic Control Center. Severe weather is also impacting flights across the country. Some 13,000 air traffic controllers and about 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers must still turn up for work during the government shutdown, but they are not being paid. Controllers are set to receive a partial paycheck on October 14 for work performed before the shutdown.
Nuclear security chief warns Johnson of shutdown impacts - The head of a major Department of Energy bureau alerted House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday that the administration will have to temporarily suspend certain nuclear security programs because of the ongoing government shutdown.Brandon Williams, the administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, told the Louisiana Republican in a private meeting that the shutdown is forcing the nation’s weapons and nonproliferation overseer to adopt a “minimum safe operations posture,” according to a person familiar with the conversation.That means certain NNSA functions, such as nuclear weapons life extension and nonproliferation programs, could be put on hold indefinitely, and skilled contract workers who are being furloughed may not receive back pay, according to the person, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.The updates from Williams, a former House Republican nominated by President Donald Trump, come days after Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that the NNSA only has enough funding to operate at full capacity until roughly Oct. 11. “Eight more days of funding, and then we have to go into some emergency shutdown procedures, putting our country at risk,” Wright said Thursday on Fox News, referring to the NNSA. The Department of Energy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Government funding lapsed Oct. 1, and Democrats and Republicans in Congress have been unable to agree on a way to reopen agencies, which have been furloughing workers and suspending some operations. A White House draft memo unveiled Tuesday suggests that furloughed employees would not be automatically provided back pay when the shutdown ends. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), chair of the House Appropriations subcommittee that funds DOE, has blasted Democrats for blocking Republicans’ continuing resolution, which would allow agencies to resume their normal work. “Democrats’ stupid and unnecessary shutdown jeopardizes our national security, energy dominance, & vital work to modernize our nuclear deterrent,” Fleischmann recently posted on the social media site X. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), long wary of nuclear hazards, said “the MAGA Republican shutdown is threatening the safety of the arsenal.”
Sens. Mark Kelly, Ruben Gallego confront Speaker Mike Johnson outside his office- Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) got in a confrontation Wednesday with Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) after they staged a surprise press gaggle outside his office to highlight their health care demands and his delay in swearing in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.). “The guy who works in this office right here is keeping all of his Republican colleagues and his caucus on an extended summer vacation. He will not come back to negotiate with us. We are ready,” Kelly told reporters outside Johnson’s office, referring to Democrats wanting commitments on health care measures as a condition of voting to reopen the government. Gallego dug in on Johnson not swearing in Grijalva, who would be the final signature needed on a discharge petition to force a vote on a bill to release files relating to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Gallego accused the Speaker of wanting to “cover up for pedophiles on the Epstein list.” Johnson canceled previously scheduled House votes this week as he aims to pressure Senate Democrats into passing a House-passed, GOP-crafted stopgap to fund the government. Though he has previously sworn in members during pro forma House sessions on House voting days, he has said he will not swear in Grijalva until the House is back voting. “There’s a way for all of us to actually get things done, protect the government workers, extend these affordable health care tax credits — but not when Johnson’s keeping his people out of session, and certainly not while he’s keeping a duly elected member of Congress from Arizona that should have been sworn in by all standards by now,” Gallego said.
IRS furloughs nearly half of workers amid government shutdown -The IRS on Wednesday said that it was furloughing nearly half of its workforce due to the ongoing government shutdown.About 34,000 IRS workers are being furloughed, according to the tax agency. Another 39,870 employees, representing 53.6% of the workforce, will remain on the job.The furloughs came as the shutdown of federal government operations was in its eighth day, and as dueling funding resolutions that would end the crisis for the sixth time failed to pass in votes by the Senate."Due to the lapse in appropriations, most IRS operations are closed," the agency said in a message to employees on Wednesday."An IRS-wide furlough began on October 8, 2025, for everyone except already-identified excepted and exempt employees," the message said."Employees who are not exempt or excepted are furloughed and placed in a non-pay and non-duty status until further notice; however, all employees should plan to report to work for their next tour of duty."Furloughed IRS workers were told in a letter that they will receive back pay when the shutdown ends. That letter came a day after an internal draft memo suggested that the Trump administration might question its obligation to give back pay to some furloughed employees.The furloughs come as the tax agency was already dealing with the effects of mass layoffs that reduced its workforce by about 25%, from around 100,000 workers to about 75,000 now. The layoffs were implemented after President Donald Trumpreturned to the White House in January.
Government shutdown: Senate votes against funding bills again - The Senate on Wednesday again rejected dueling Republican and Democratic funding proposals to end the government shutdown, which stretched into its eighth day with no hint of progress toward a resolution. In a 54-45 vote, the Senate did not advance a GOP-led stopgap bill that would have funded the government through late November. An alternative funding bill backed by Democrats also failed in a 47-52 vote around 12:50 p.m. ET. The same three senators from the Democratic caucus who have voted with Republicans on previous votes — John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, Nevada's Catherine Cortez Masto, as well as Angus King of Maine, one of two independents in the caucus — did so again on Wednesday. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., again voted with Democrats to oppose the GOP measure. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, did not vote. The competing stopgaps had already failed to pass in five previous votes. Both parties' leaders blame each other for the shutdown, which began on Oct. 1. Republicans, who hold slim majorities in both chambers of Congress, want a short-term measure that will resume funding the U.S. government at current levels through Nov. 21. The House GOP bill also includes funding for additional security for lawmakers following the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Democrats' alternative includes more than $1 trillion in additional health-care funding, including an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies that are set to expire at the end of this year. "Republicans are shutting down the government because they refuse to fix and address the crisis in American health care," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said before the votes began. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, has floated a possible off-ramp to the shutdown that would include GOP commitments on a deal related to enhanced Obamacare tax credits, Punchbowl News reported. But her proposal — which suggests a conversation about ACA extensions after the government reopens — did not sway any Democratic lawmakers on Wednesday. Republicans currently need about eight votes from senators in the Democratic caucus to pass their short-term funding measure to overcome the Senate's 60-vote filibuster rules.
Affordable Care Act premiums will rise 114% in 2026 if subsidies expire: KFF -- Premiums for health plans purchased over the Affordable Care Act marketplace will more than double in 2026 if enhanced subsidies expire at year's end as scheduled, according to an analysis published Tuesday by KFF, a nonpartisan health policy research group..The finding comes as Democrats and Republicans are locked in a stalemate tied to the enhanced subsidies that threatens to shut down the federal government early Wednesday morning.The enhanced subsidies, or enhanced premium tax credits, make health insurance premiums cheaper for 22 million ACA enrollees.They're scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, absent congressional action.Why health care is at the center of the U.S. government shutdown. If the enhanced credits end, recipients would see their premiums increase to $1,906 in 2026 from $888 this year, on average — a 114% increase, according to KFF's analysis.Democrats want to extend the enhanced subsidies as part of a deal to fully fund the federal government in fiscal year 2026. Republicans say negotiations on continuing those credits should happen after the Senate approves a funding resolution.Premium tax credits were established under the Affordable Care Act and were originally available for households with incomes between 100% and 400% of the federal poverty level. In 2021, the American Rescue Plan Act, a pandemic relief law, temporarily increased the amount of the premium tax credit and expanded eligibility to households with an annual income of more than 400% of the federal poverty limit. This includes a family of four with income of more than $128,600 in 2025, for example.The law also capped the amount a household pays out of pocket toward insurance premiums at 8.5% of income. Democrats temporarily extended those enhanced subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act, which former President Joe Biden signed in 2022.The enhanced subsidies saved recipients an average of $705 annually in 2024 on their health premiums, according to KFF.Other factors would compound the cost increase for enrollees, according to the KFF analysis.For one, the Trump administration changed the way tax credits are calculated, and as a result, enrollees will have to pay a higher share of their income toward a benchmark ACA plan in 2026, KFF said.Insurers in the ACA marketplace have also proposed raising rates by a median of 18%, due to rising health care costs and the expiration of enhanced subsidies, KFF said. That would be the largest rate increase since 2018.
Republicans face pressure on Democrats' health care demands - Sen. Susan Collins is reportedly shopping around a potential off-ramp to the government shutdown that has paralyzed Washington, but the Maine Republican is not ready to give in on the primary demand by her Democratic colleagues.Collins has been circulating a "discussion draft" of a proposal that would include GOP pledges on a deal related to enhanced Obamacare tax credits, Punchbowl News reported.But Collins is insisting that any extension of the Affordable Care Act subsidies should be negotiated after Congress passes a funding resolution that would allow the government to reopen.Collins told reporters Monday that she has a draft of a proposal to get out of the shutdown, which she has shared "selectively.""There are a lot of informal discussions, but so far there's no product, so we have the discussion draft," she said, according to the news siteNOTUS.Her draft "suggests that there be a conversation on the ACA extension ... after we reopen government," she said, according to NOTUS."I do think we need an extension, but we also need some reforms, such as a cap on how much income you can earn, and that is totally feasible to do right after we finish keeping government open," Collins said Monday,according to the Maine Morning Star."But we should not have issues that are very complicated that split the Senate attached to the continuing resolution, because all that's going to do is prolong the shutdown."Most Democratic senators have refused to vote for any funding legislation unless it codifies an extension of the subsidies, which are due to expire at the end of the year.Republicans like Collins, however, insist that conversations over the subsidies should occur after the government reopens.Sens. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, both support extending the tax credits, as do Reps. Jen Kiggans, R-Va., and Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., Punchbowl reported.
Top Republican Throws Massive Wrench in Shutdown Standoff -Senate Majority Leader John Thune may have thrown a stick of dynamite in any potential path forward to end the government shutdown when he admitted President Donald Trump wants to overhaul Obamacare. The two parties have been locked in a standoff over the Democrats’ demand that an extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits be included in the short-term spending deal. If not extended, ACA premiums are expected to skyrocket for the coming year. But Republicans have refused to even discuss health care until Democrats get on board with their bill to reopen the government. However, Thune’s admission suggests that even if Democrats agreed, the GOP’s goal would not be to extend subsidies after they have long tried to chip away at President Obama’s landmark legislation. “The fundamental problem here is the underlying program, which again needs to be reformed,” Thune said on CNBC. “The president wants to do that. The president would like to overhaul Obamacare, and give people health insurance that is higher quality and more affordable.” Thune acknowledged that the Affordable Care Act is now embedded in the U.S. He said there were conversations “ripe to be had.” He believes the president was open to sitting down and working on solutions that “improve quality and affordability.” The problem is premiums are slated to jump just months from now, and the president has never produced his own health care plan after attempting to overturn Obamacare during his first term. During the election season, Trump famously said during the presidential debate that he had “concepts of a plan.” Just ahead of the 2020 election, Trump also told 60 Minutes that he had a comprehensive health care plan ready to replace the Affordable Care Act. But he did not go into detail and his press secretary handed correspondent Lesley Stahl a large book and said it was his health care plan, but all it contained was executive orders and congressional initiatives. A full five years later, this week at the White House, the president said Obamacare is a horrible mess and said “we want to make it better.”
IRS retracts guarantee of back pay for furloughed workers -The IRS walked back previous guidance indicating furloughed employees would receive back pay during the government shutdown Thursday, writing that an agency under the president would provide further information.“An earlier memo circulated on furlough guidance incorrectly stated the nature of the Government Employee Fair Treatment Act of 2019 as it relates to compensation for non-pay and non-duty status,” the IRS wrote Thursday on the social platform X. The message then referred to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), an agency under the White House. “OMB will provide further guidance on this issue, you will be updated accordingly,” the IRS wrote.The IRS and OMB did not respond to a request for comment. The Thursday message — which Federal News Network reported also circulated as a notice to employees — follows an OMB draft memo that indicates federal workers may not be entitled to backpay during their forced time off due to the government shutdown.
More BLM shutdown furloughs could be coming soon - While only a quarter of the Bureau of Land Management’s staff has been placed on furlough so far during the federal government shutdown, there are signs that might change soon. BLM’s contingency plan calls for roughly 75 percent of its 9,250 employees to continue working, and many are getting paid with non-appropriated funding, such as carryover funds or money collected by fees. Only 2,400 BLM employees have been furloughed.But that is already changing for some of the 4,000 employees that BLM’s contingency plan lists as either on an “exempted” or “excepted” status, which means, respectively, that their ongoing work is paid for through fees or other available money or they are authorized to work without pay during the shutdown because of their positions, such as people in law enforcement. Some of the funding available to keep some employees working is starting to run out, according to four BLM staffers with knowledge of the situation who said very little detailed information about funding levels and timelines is being shared with employees. All were granted anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss the issue publicly.
EPA sends first furlough notices -EPA has begun notifying employees they are on furlough status as the agency draws on leftover funds to stay afloat during the federal government shutdown. Those notices advised staffers they’re entering “non-duty, non-pay status,” effective Thursday, according to records viewed by POLITICO’s E&E News.The notices said EPA could no longer incur “further financial obligations” and “a number of EPA employees will be placed in a furlough status.” How many EPA employees have been furloughed so far is not clear. The agency didn’t answer questions about the number of staffers being sent home or whether EPA had exhausted its available funds to stay open.EPA spokesperson Brigit Hirsch said the agency was operating according to its shutdown or “lapse” plan. Under that plan, once carryover funds expire, EPA could furlough more than 13,000 employees until the shutdown ends. Multiple EPA employees, who have been granted anonymity because they fear retaliation, said they’ve been told this is the first phase of furloughs at the agency. But details have been sparse, leaving employees in a new phase of limbo. Since the shutdown began last week, EPA staffers have been reporting to work as usual. Exemption notices sent to many employees, potentially the entire staff, gave no timeline on when furloughs would start.EPA’s largest union denounced staff being furloughed.“Furloughing EPA employees is not just an attack on federal workers, but an attack on every American’s right to clean air, safe water, and uncontaminated soil,” said Justin Chen, president of American Federation of Government Employees Council 238, in a statement.Chen added, “When the essential services that EPA workers provide stop, that means pollution monitoring, toxic cleanup, and other public health protections stall and communities suffer.”
Senate advances 2026 defense bill after weeks of delay as shutdown drags on - The Senate advanced its version of a colossal package to authorize funding for the Pentagon on Thursday in the midst of the ongoing government shutdown. The 2026 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which had been gathering dust as lawmakers worked to break through holds on the bill for over a month, advanced in the upper chamber on a bipartisan vote. The legislation would authorize roughly $925 billion in defense spending. However, successful advancement of the bill after a marathon Senate vote on amendments came as the government entered Day 9 of the government shutdown with no clear end in sight. Lawmakers in the upper chamber aren't expected to return until Tuesday, all but guaranteeing that military service members won't get their paychecks next week. Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker, R-Miss., formally announced the breakthrough on the Senate floor after Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., teased a possible vote Thursday morning. Wicker noted that in a particularly partisan moment in the upper chamber, the NDAA was able to sail through committee earlier this year on a near unanimous vote. "In this time, when we can't seem to muster up a 60-vote majority to keep us in business as a federal government, we were able to pass the National Defense Authorization Act by a vote of 26-to-1," Wicker said. Lawmakers were finally able to move on the legislative package after Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., dropped his hold on the measure. Gallego had called for a vote on his amendment that would have prevented Ashli Babbitt, who was killed during the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, from receiving military funeral honors. The Air Force extended an offer for military funeral honors for Babbitt in August. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks to reporters after the weekly Senate policy luncheon on Capitol Hill in Washington Oct. 7, 2025. (Allison Robbert/AP Photo) Senators charged through over a dozen partisan amendments and a massive batch of roughly 50 add-ons to the legislative package before moving the bill. The House passed its own version last month. Among the failed amendments was one from Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., which would have blocked money to retrofit a Boeing 747 that President Donald Trump accepted from the Qatari government earlier this year. Another, from Sen. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., would have prevented Trump and governors around the country from signing off on sending the National Guard from one state to another if a governor or mayor rejected the move. One successful amendment, from Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., would repeal the 2002 Authorization for Use of Military Force for Iraq, which, at the time, authorized President George W. Bush to use the U.S. military as he deemed "to be necessary and appropriate" in the wake of Sept. 11, 2001. It would also repeal a similar resolution passed in 1991 during the Gulf War. The House's version of the bill included repeals of both authorizations, too.
Funding bills to end government shutdown fail in Senate vote for seventh time -Two funding bills that could end the federal government shutdown failed to pass in Senate votes for the seventh time on Thursday.The votes on dueling Republican and Democratic stop-gap funding proposals came on the ninth day of the shutdown, and as fallout from the crisis spread.The IRS on Wednesday said that it was furloughing nearly half of its workforce because of the lack of funding by Congress.Lawmakers showed no indication that they are open to yielding on their respective party's demands.The Senate voted against the GOP-backed bill, which would fund the government through Nov. 21, in a 54-45 vote.Democratic Sens. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Nevada's Catherine Cortez Masto, as well as Angus King of Maine, one of two independents in the Democratic caucus, all again voted with Republicans, as they have done on prior votes.Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., voted again with Democrats to oppose the GOP measure. Republicans, who hold a narrow majority in the Senate, need about eight votes from the Democratic caucus in order to pass their short-term funding bill in the upper chamber, where 60 votes are required for passage.In the last round of voting on Wednesday, the GOP bill was rejected 54-45, while the Democrats' version fell short in a 47-52 tally.On Thursday, the Senate rejected the Democratic bill in a 47-50 party-line vote.
Senate passes mammoth annual defense policy bill - The Senate approved its massive annual defense policy bill late Thursday as the U.S. government remains shut down. The GOP-led chamber approved the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) 70-20, aiming to fund the U.S. military at $924.7 billion in fiscal 2026. The vote came after lawmakers reached a deal earlier in the day to unlock the stalled legislation. The bill’s passage allows the House and Senate armed services committees to begin the sometimes arduous conference process, during which lawmakers hammer out a compromise between each chambers’ version of the legislation. The House version of the NDAA, passed last month, has a much lower top line at nearly $893 billion. The NDAA had come to the Senate floor in early September but saw little movement until Thursday morning. Action on the bill was stalled, as all 100 senators must agree to hold votes on amendments, with several sticking points causing a handful of lawmakers to halt the process. But Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) secured an agreement to vote on 17 stand-alone amendments and a package of nearly 50 less controversial amendments. “We simply cannot delay this process any longer,” Wicker said on the Senate floor. “Let me make it clear: If we do not bring this to the floor today, this matter will not have time for deliberation on the Senate floor, and we’ll have to basically pretend that we’re having a conference between House and Senate members, and a very small group of senators will have to write this bill and bring it to the floor for final passage. That’s not the way this ought to be done.” Votes were held throughout Thursday evening, during which senators blew through more than a dozen partisan amendments and the 50 add-ons before moving the bill.
CPI inflation report will be released by Labor Department, while other data is delayed by shutdown - The Labor Department will bring back staff to work on a key consumer inflation report despite the ongoing federal government shutdown, CNBC has learned. The department's Bureau of Labor Statistics will "promptly resume" work on September's consumer price index data, a White House official said. The report will come out at 8:30 a.m. ET on Oct. 24, nine days after it was originally scheduled, according to the BLS.The department had originally paused work on the CPI report – which tracks a broad basket of goods and services for price changes over time — because of its shutdown plan, the official said. But the Social Security Administration needs third-quarter CPI data for calculating and publishing annual cost-of-living adjustments before Nov. 1. Other BLS data releases including the nonfarm payroll report haven't been published as originally intended since the federal government shutdown due to a lapse in funding. The Senate on Thursday failed to pass funding bills for the seventh time that would have ended the closure, which began last week. Bloomberg News first reported that the BLS was calling employees back to work on the CPI data.
Donald Trump administration fires at least 4.1K federal workers in shutdown layoffs -The Trump administration laid off more than 4,100 employees Friday amid the ongoing government shutdown, according to a new court filing from the Justice Department. U.S. District Judge Susan Illston had ordered the administration to hand over the information in a lawsuit government unions filed just before the shutdown began. Hours ahead of the judge’s deadline, the White House budget office announced reductions in force (RIFs) were commencing after days of threats. A senior administration official told The Hill the figures are “just a snapshot in time.”“More RIFs are coming,” the official said. Various agencies have since confirmed the layoffs, but the government’s new court filing provides the clearest picture yet of the breadth of the cuts. The most significant layoffs took place at the Treasury Department, with 1,446 employees receiving RIF notices Friday.
Trump directs Hegseth to use ‘all available funds’ to pay military workers amid shutdown - President Trump on Saturday directed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to use move all of the department’s “available funds” to go toward paying military servicemembers during the government shutdown. Throwing blame toward congressional Democrats and naming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Trump said that troops will not receive their upcoming paychecks. Servicemembers are scheduled to receive their next checks on Oct. 15. “That is why I am using my authority, as Commander in Chief, to direct our Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, to use all available funds to get our Troops PAID on October 15th,” Trump wrote in a post on his social media site Truth Social. “We have identified funds to do this, and Secretary Hegseth will use them to PAY OUR TROOPS,” Trump said. The Hill has reached out to the Department of Defense (DOD) and the White House for comment.
Israel Says No Gaza Ceasefire in Place Despite Trump's Call for a Stop to the Bombing - The Israeli government said on Sunday that there is no ceasefire in place in Gaza despite President Trump’s calls for Israel to “immediately stop the bombing of Gaza” as the IDF continues to slaughter Palestinians across the Strip.“While certain bombings have actually stopped inside of the Gaza Strip, there’s no ceasefire in place at this point in time,” said Israeli government spokeswoman Shosh Badrosian, according to The Associated Press.Badrosian added that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in “regular contact” with Trump and that the upcoming negotiations in Egypt aimed at securing the release of Israelis held by Hamas and implementing a ceasefire will “be confined to a few days maximum, with no tolerance for maneuvers that will delay talks by Hamas.”Trump first made the call for Israel to stop bombing Gaza on Friday after Hamas issued its response to the US-Israeli ceasefire proposal. On Saturday, Trump said that he appreciated that “Israel has temporarily stopped the bombing,’ but on the same day, the IDF killed at least 70 Palestinians in Gaza, according to medical sources speaking to Al Jazeera.The IDF killed at least 129 Palestinians in Gaza over the past two days, according to daily updates released by Gaza’s Health Ministry. The Health Ministry said in its latest release on Sunday that it recorded the deaths of 63 Palestinians and the injury of 153 over the previous 24-hour period.Medical sources have told Al Jazeera that Israeli attacks on Sunday killed at least 24 Palestinians, including at least 12 who were killed in Gaza City. According to Israeli media, the IDF was ordered to halt its operation to conquer Gaza City, but it has continued to bomb the area.One Israeli strike in Gaza City on Saturday killed 18 people, including seven children between the ages of two months and eight years, according to a statement from Gaza’s Civil Defense.The IDF also continues to kill desperate Palestinians attempting to get food. According to the AP, at least four Palestinians were killed near an aid site in southern Gaza on Sunday.On top of the violent deaths, Palestinians continue to starve to death amid the famine caused by the Israeli siege. According to releases from the Health Ministry, at least three Palestinians, including two children, died of starvation over the past two days.
Trump says deal to end Gaza war is 'very close' - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that a deal to end the war in Gaza was "very close" and that he might travel to Egypt this weekend, as his envoys joined talks in Egypt to try to seal a ceasefire and hostage-release agreement. With Trump's 20-point plan appearing closer than any previous bid to halt the two-year-old conflict, delegations upgraded their presence at the indirect talks, launched on Monday in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. Trump offered an upbeat assessment, saying a deal was almost done and that he may travel to the Middle East this weekend, possibly leaving as soon as Saturday, if an agreement is reached. He later clarified that he likely would go to Egypt and the trip would probably be before or just after hostages are released. "I was just given a note by the secretary of state saying that we're very close to a deal in the Middle East, and they're going to need me pretty quickly," Trump said during an unrelated White House event. The hand-scrawled note on White House stationery read, "You need to approve a Truth Social post soon so you can announce deal first," the Associated Press later reported. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.It marked the most promising effort yet to end the war in Gaza, which had evolved into a regional conflict, drawing in countries such as Iran, Yemen and Lebanon, and reshaping the Middle East.Just a day after the second anniversary of Hamas' attack on Israel that triggered Israel's devastating assault on Gaza, the group's negotiators handed over its lists of hostages and Palestinian prisoners to be freed in a swap with Israel.Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff and Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, arrived and began participation in the negotiations, Israeli and Palestinian sources said.Also joining the discussions was the prime minister of longstanding mediator Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, according to Egyptian sources.Despite the hopes raised for ending the war, crucial details are yet to be spelled out, including the timing, a post-war administration for the Gaza Strip and the fate of the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Gaza authorities say more than 67,000 people have been killed and much of the enclave has been flattened since Israel began its military response to the Hamas cross-border attack on Oct. 7, 2023. Around 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage back to Gaza, according to Israeli officials, with 20 of the 48 hostages still held believed to be alive.
Trump announces Israel-Hamas ceasefire, hostages to be freed - President Trump announced Wednesday a ceasefire has been reached between Israel and Hamas, paving the way for the release of 20 living hostages and relief for nearly 2 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Trump said the two sides signed off on “the first Phase” of a peace plan he announced late last month, a major reprieve to halt more than two years of war since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing approximately 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. “This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly!” Trump said in a post on his social media site Truth Social. “This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement minutes later. “With God’s help we will bring them all home,” he said, referring to the hostages. Hamas also holds the bodies of 28 hostages. Netanyahu said he will convene the government tomorrow “to approve the agreement and bring all our beloved hostages home.” The ceasefire deal comes after Hamas and Israel agreed last week to enter into negotiations, with senior officials arriving in Egypt on Monday to solidify the deal. Full details of the ceasefire deal were not immediately publicized. Majed al-Ansari, adviser to Qatar’s prime minister, said in a post on the social platform X that the details for implementing the first phase of the deal would be announced later, but provisions of the deal will include a halt to the war, the release of hostages by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners by Israel, and a resurgence of aid into Gaza.
Trump: Gaza hostage, ceasefire deal with Israel, Hamas reached - A peace agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas. In the first phase, Israel will partially withdraw its troops from Gaza and Hamas will release the remaining hostages, President Trump said. The breakthrough comes two years after Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, with Gaza almost entirely destroyed and more than 67,000 Palestinians killed, according to the Gaza health ministry. Trump told Axios he would likely travel to Israel in the coming days. "It's a great day for Israel and for the world," he said. "I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace," Trump wrote on Truth Social.
- "The war in Gaza is over. The hostages will be released 72 hours after the Israeli Cabinet approves the deal. The release is expected to happen by Monday," a U.S. official told Axios.
- Hamas released a statement stating that the war is over and thanking Trump and the other mediators. "We call on President Trump, the guarantor countries of the agreement, and all Arab, Islamic, and international parties to compel the occupation government to fully implement the terms of the agreement and not allow it to evade or delay the implementation of what has been agreed upon."
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared this "a great day for Israel" and said his Cabinet would convene on Thursday to approve "the agreement and bring all our dear hostages home."
- Negotiations to finalize the deal took place in Egypt, with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner arriving on Wednesday morning to represent the U.S.
- Negotiators from Israel and Hamas and mediators from Qatar, Egypt and Turkey also participated.
- The deal is based on the 20-point plan Trump announced last week.
- Thorny issues such as the process for disarming Hamas and the future governing structure of Gaza still need to be negotiated.
Trump told Fox News that the 20 live and 28 deceased Israeli hostages would "all be coming back," probably on Monday. n Israel has also agreed to release 250 of Palestinians serving life sentences in Israeli prisons and 1,700 Palestinians detained by the IDF in Gaza since Oct. 7. Israel had previously suspended its military operation to occupy Gaza City and stopped most airstrikes in Gaza at Trump's request in order to give space for negotiations. Trump's statement was somewhat cautious, only referring to this as an agreement on the "first phase."The next phases could be just as difficult, given the complex issues involved in removing both Israeli forces and Hamas leadership from Gaza and creating a new political and security architecture.
Trump Says Hamas and Israel Have 'Signed Off' on First Phase of Ceasefire Deal - President Trump has announced that Israel and Hamas have both “signed off” on the first phase of a Gaza ceasefire deal.“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly!” the president wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday night.“This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!” Trump added.Drop Site News reported earlier that Hamas and other Palestinian factions had agreed to a framework for a Gaza ceasefire deal. Before his announcement, President Trump said that a deal was “very close” and that he could be traveling to the region this weekend.According to the Drop Site report, Hamas agreed to a deal that will involve Israeli troops remaining in Gaza after they release all of the Israeli captives. Hamas was initially opposed to a deal that didn’t include a full Israeli withdrawal along with the release of the hostages.A source told Drop Site that Hamas was now trusting President Trump to guarantee that Israel won’t restart its genocidal war. “Trusting [Trump’s] word is the gamble they are taking. If it works, they will be considered geniuses. If it fails, they will be considered fools. It’s as simple as that,” the source said.Israel previously broke a Gaza ceasefire deal that was signed in January and has constantly violated a Lebanon ceasefire deal that it signed in November 2024. After Trump’s announcement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he will convene his government on Thursday to “approve the agreement and bring all our dear hostages home.”
Netanyahu Says Israel Won't Implement Trump's Gaza Plan Until Hamas Releases 'All the Hostages' -Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly said on Sunday that Israel will not implement any other point of the Gaza ceasefire plan released by President Trump until Hamas releases all remaining Israeli captives in Gaza.“Until the first clause — the release of all the hostages, living and dead — until the last of the hostages, all of them, is transferred to Israeli territory, we will not move on to any other clause,” Netanyahu told members of the Gvura Forum, according to The Times of Israel.The Israeli leader said that if Hamas didn’t release the hostages “by the end of the time set by President Trump,” Israel would go back on the offensive in Gaza “with the full backing of all the countries involved.” Israel has continued to bomb Gaza since Hamas’s response to Trump’s proposal and the US president’s call for Israel to halt its attacks.It’s unclear what deadline Netanyahu was referring to that he said was set by Trump. Under theoutline released by the White House, Hamas would have to release all remaining Israeli captives within “72 hours of Israel publicly accepting” the agreement, but the details of the potential deal still need to be worked out. The deal also calls for a complete ceasefire and halt to Israeli military operations to facilitate the captive release.Netanyahu also said that Trump was “increasing” the pressure on Hamas. “Trump will not hesitate to wait longer than he has allotted. This time, he is determined,” he said.The Israeli leader vowed there would be no Hamas or Palestinian Authority officials involved in a future Gaza government, even though the deal released by the White House envisions a “reformed” PA eventually taking control. “No representative of Hamas or any representative of the PA will be involved in controlling the Strip,” Netanyahu said.
US Sending 200 Troops to Israel To 'Support and Monitor' Gaza Ceasefire Deal - The US is sending about 200 troops to Israel to “support and monitor” the Gaza ceasefire deal, The Associated Press reported on Thursday, citing US officials. The officials said that US troops are being deployed as part of a team that will include partner nations, NGOs, and other private companies. US Central Command will establish a “civil-military coordination center” that will help ensure the flow of humanitarian aid into Gaza and provide “logistical and security assistance.”One of the officials said that no US troops will be sent to Gaza. However, according to a report fromMiddle East Eye, Egypt has informed the US that it wants US military personnel to be part of the peacekeeping force that is expected to be established by the Gaza ceasefire deal.A second US official told the AP that US troops have already started arriving in Israel to establish the ceasefire coordination center. Another official said that some of them are coming from CENTCOM, while others are heading to Israel from other parts of the globe, although White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later said the troops are already stationed in the Middle East.Leavitt claimed a report of the US deploying troops to Israel was “not true,” but then confirmed the US was sending military personnel to the country. “To be clear: up to 200 US personnel, who are already stationed at CENTCOM, will be tasked with monitoring the peace agreement in Israel, and they will work with other international forces on the ground,” she wrote on X. The US already has at least 100 troops inside Israel to operate the two THAAD missile interceptors that the US has deployed to Israel. The US deployed the first THAAD in 2024 and the second one this year, and the systems fired about 150 interceptors to defend Israel during the 12-Day US-Israeli war against Iran, costing at least $2 billion.
Thoughts On The Ceasefire News - Caitlin Johnstone - Israel continued to hammer Gaza with military explosives on Thursday despite the announcement of the first stages of a ceasefire agreement with Hamas. Israel always does this. When normal people get a ceasefire agreement they think “Good, this means we can finally stop fighting and killing.” Whenever Israelis get a ceasefire agreement they go, “This means we have to hurry up and kill as many people as possible before it takes effect.” But it does appear that the killing and abuse will at least diminish for a time, which is an objectively good thing no matter how you slice it. The first stages of the agreement reportedly entail a partial withdrawal of IDF troops, Israel’s starvation blockade officially ending, humanitarian aid being allowed into the enclave, and both Israel and Hamas releasing captives and stopping the fighting. Drop Site News reports that according to Hamas sources, subsequent ceasefire phases will entail “No surrender, no disarming, no mass exile, but most of all a permanent end to the war.” It remains to be seen if there will be any movement toward a lasting ceasefire beyond the first stage. When an agreement was reached late last year it never made it beyond the first phase and then the Trumpanyahu administrationdeclared a siege and resumed the killing. The far right members of the Netanyahu regime certainly seem like they don’t expect the ceasefire to hold. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said in a statement that Israel has a “tremendous responsibility to ensure that this is not, God forbid, a deal of ‘hostages in exchange for stopping the war,’ as Hamas thinks and boasts,” and that “immediately after the hostages return home, the State of Israel will continue to strive with all its might for the true eradication of Hamas and the genuine disarmament of Gaza.” Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir issued similar remarks, saying that he and his Jewish Power party will use their leverage to dismantle the Netanyahu government if it “allows the continued existence of Hamas rule in Gaza.”Netanyahu himself has been studiously avoiding any talk of commitment to a lasting ceasefire, mostly limiting his public statements to the significance of freeing Israeli hostages.So there’s not a whole lot to feel optimistic about here. If the killing does stop on a lasting basis, it will be a pleasant surprise.If it does, we can only surmise that the US and Israel calculated that the worldwide PR crisis created by the genocide was getting too severe to sustain, which would be a win for all of us. Trump has gone on record to say that “Bibi took it very far and Israel lost a lot of support in the world. Now I am gonna get all that support back.”Either that, or they calculated that they’re going to need all their firepower for a planned war with Iran. Which would of course be terrible for everyone. We shall see. For now at least it will be nice for everyone to have a breather. If things really do calm down I’m going to do something I’ve never done in my entire writing career and try to take a full weekend off work to decompress. Focusing on a live-streamed genocide for two years takes a toll on the mind and body. Here’s hoping for a better future.
Washington Burns Through $34BN Backing Israel In Post-Oct.7 Wars: Brown University -- A new study has tried to assess the total amount the United States has spent on military aid to Israel since the Oct.7, 2023 Hamas terror attack.The US has provided Israel with $21.7 billion since the start of the Gaza War, policy analyst and senior Quincy Institute research fellow William D. Hartung wrote in a paper for the Watson School of International and Public Affairs at Brown University."This figure does not include the tens of billions of dollars in arms sales agreements that have been committed for weapons and services that will be paid for and delivered in the years to come," the paper, which is part of the "Cost of War" project, reads. And adding significantly in US costs was defending the Red Sea against attacks out of Yemen, which were more significant during the first year of conflict, Washington has further spent between $9.65 and $12.07 billion. This figureincludes operations in "the wider region sparked by or in support of Israeli military operations" since Oct.7.The conflict with Iran in June was a big one as well, where hundreds of US anti-air and defensive missiles were rapidly expended as inbound Iranian drones and ballistic missiles pummeled Tel Aviv and other locations in retaliation for the 'surprise' Israeli attack which started it all.Adding all of these figures, the total stands at between $31.35 and $33.77 billion in "two years of post-10/7 wars" - the fresh analysis concludes.The bulk of the cost has involved the US providing Israel with tens of thousands of bombs and other weaponry. While this trend is nothing "new" - it does underscore that Israel might quickly find itself in big trouble without its defense being propped up by Washington.
New CBS owner David Ellison met with top Israeli general in scheme to spy on Americans -- Israel’s former top general sought donations from David Ellison and his father, Larry, as part of a billionaire coterie to fund digital paramilitaries aimed at sabotaging pro-Palestine activists. The leaked documents show one planner explaining, “In the jungle, we need more guerrillas and less IDF.”With Paramount and CBS News now under his control, the younger Ellison has installed self-described “Zionist fanatic” Bari Weiss as editor-in-chief.The new owner of Paramount, David Ellison, participated in an Israeli government-led plot to surveil and suppress pro-Palestine activists in the US, leaked emails show. Originally dubbed “12 Tribes,” a reference to the dozen Jewish billionaires solicited to underwrite the operation, the scheme sought out American faces to fund surveillance firms run by Israeli intelligence veterans on behalf of Tel Aviv, as it targeted American citizens participating in the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement. The emails documenting the foreign influence campaign to counter BDS were first identified by journalist Jack Poulson, who discovered them in a trove leaked by the Handala hacking collective in 2024. The files show former Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz was tasked with recruiting wealthy Westerners to fund surveillance firms operated by Israeli intelligence veterans as they stalked and harassed people whom the government of Israel suspected of harboring pro-Palestinian sympathies.In the emails, Hollywood talent agency executive Adam Berkowitzidentified Ellison as “very interested” in “helping out with [undermining] the BDS movement.” Berkowitz introduced Ellison to the Israeli general in a group email: “Benny meet david. David meet Benny,” Berkowitz wrote on December 23, 2015, explaining that he “told david briefly about your [Gantz’s] 12 tribe idea which you can expound on to him which he seemed very interested in.”Two days later, Ellison replied, “Mr Gantz it is a pleasure to meet you over e-mail. I very much look forward to discussing everything you are working on, and in the mean time hope you are enjoying the holiday season.” He added, “I will be back in LA on January 3rd and look forward to connecting in the New Year.”A planning spreadsheet names other Zionist billionaires sought for the Israeli effort. They included David’s father, Oracle founder and Friends of the IDF board member Larry Ellison; Israeli-American billionaire and top Democratic Party sugar daddy Haim Saban; and Google founder Sergey Brin, whose “Israel-support” was still “tbd.” One of those named, Canadian bookchain owner Heather Reissman, had “already agreed” to donate. The document also listed other hyper-wealthy Zionist activists as potential 12 Tribes members, alongside the following descriptions:
Israel To Spend Up To $4.1 Million on Propaganda Campaign Targeting American Christians - The Israeli Foreign Ministry is planning to spend up to $4.1 million for a propaganda campaignthat will target American evangelical Christians, a project that’s being sold as the “largest Christian Church Geofencing Campaign in US history.” The Jewish Telegraphic Agency reported on a federal filing under the Foreign Agents Registration Act that shows the Israeli ministry has hired a newly formed US-based firm, Show Faith by Works LLC, which will target churchgoers with digital ads that are explicitly “pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian.” The campaign will also involve creating a mobile “October 7 experience” that will visit Christian colleges, churches, and events. The document says the experience will involve a custom-built trailer designed by “Hollywood experts,” virtual reality headsets, set pieces, and full-length TVs for an “interactive experience.” The filing lists hundreds of churches in California, Texas, Colorado, and Arizona that will be targeted by the information campaign. According to an invoice, Show Faith by Works expects to receive $3.25 million from the Israeli Foreign Ministry over a five-month period and includes a potential additional $835,000 for equipment and expansion of the campaign.The document, which was filed on September 27, says one of the activities of the campaign will be to “combat low American Evangelical Christian approval of the Nation of Israel.”One of the goals of the campaign is to use “a combination of personal and professional outreach to the Christian Community, combined with digital targeting and social media outreach to increase positive associations with the Nation of Israel while linking the Palestinian population with extremist factions.”The propaganda campaign targeting American Christians is part of Israel’s PR blitz in response to its significant loss of support among Americans due to its genocidal war against the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Another recent FARA filing revealed that Israel is paying influencers around $7,000 per pro-Israel post on social media.
Trump Threatens To Bomb Iran Again If It Restarts Nuclear Program, Says He's 'Not Going To Wait So Long' - President Trump on Sunday said that he would bomb Iran again if the country restarts its nuclear program, warning the US was “not going to wait so long this time,” a threat that comes amid growing signs that another US-Israeli war against Iran may be coming.“The B2s, what they did. Those beautiful flying wings, what they did, they hit every single target. And just in case, we shot 30 Tomahawks out of a submarine,” Trump said in a speech at Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia, during a celebration of the US Navy’s 250th birthday, referring to the US bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 22.Trump claimed in the speech that Iran was going to have a nuclear weapon “within a month,” but before Israel launched the war, US intelligence determined Tehran was not pursuing a nuclear weapon, and even if it chose to, it would take years to actually develop a deliverable weapon.“They were going to have a nuclear weapon within a month,” Trump told a crowd of US Navy sailors. “And now they can start the operation all over again, but I hope they don’t because we’ll have to take care of that too if they do, I let them know that. You want to do that, it’s fine, but we’re going to take care of that and we’re not going to wait so long.”Trump went on to say that he had B-2 pilots visit him in the Oval Office, who said the US had been working on plans to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities for 22 years, but that no president before him wanted to do it. The president has previously acknowledged that he bombed Iran on behalf of Israel. “Look, nobody has done more for Israel than I have, including the recent attacks with Iran, wiping that thing out,” he said in an interview with the Daily Caller published on September 1..
Iran Calls US a 'Law-Breaking Country' in Response to Trump's Latest Threat - Iran’s Foreign Ministry hit back at President Trump’s latest threat to bomb the country if it restarts its nuclear program, calling the US a “law-breaking country” as Iranian military officials warned they’re prepared to face another attack. According to Newsweek, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baghaei condemned Trump’s threat as a “criminal and illegal act” and said it would reinforce the US’s reputation as a nation that doesn’t follow international law.“It will be clear to the international community and to the Iranian nation that the United States is a law-breaking country,” Baghaei said.The president made the threat on Sunday while delivering a speech to US Navy sailors in Norfolk, Virginia. He also praised the US military’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities and warned the US was “not going to wait so long this time” if Iran does restart its nuclear enrichment.Baghaei also rejected the idea of talks with the US, calling Washington’s position “irresponsible and obstructive.” The US is demanding that Iran enter negotiations under the condition that it will agree to eliminate its civilian nuclear enrichment program and impose curbs on its ballistic missiles, two demands Iranian officials have made clear are non-starters. Iranian officials have previously said they would need assurances that Iran wouldn’t be attacked again to restart talks with the US, since the 12-day US-Israeli war against Iran was launched under the cover of negotiations. Israel started the war on June 13, two days before the US and Iran were set to hold another round of talks.
US Provides Lebanese Government With $230 Million in Military Aid as It Pushes Hezbollah Disarmament - The Trump administration has approved $230 million worth of military and security aid for Lebanon as it’s pushing the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah, Reuters reported on Friday.The Hill reported that the US sent $230 million on September 30 as a last-minute action before the government shutdown so the funds wouldn’t expire. “It’s not a huge amount, but for a small country like Lebanon, that’s really significant,” a congressional aide told reporters on October 1.A Lebanese source told Reuters that $190 million will go toward the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and $40 million is for the Internal Security Forces. On September 10, the US Department of Warannounced a $14 million weapons package for the LAF that it said would help “dismantle weapons caches and military infrastructure of non-state groups, including Hezbollah.” In an interview released on September 22, Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey, who has also been involved in talks with Lebanon, said that the US was arming the LAF so it could fight its own people.“We’re going to arm them so they can fight Israel? I don’t think so,” Barrack told The National. “So you’re arming them so they can fight their own people, Hezbollah. Hezbollah is our enemy. Iran is our enemy.”Barrack’s comments came as critics of the US policy in Lebanon have been warning that the push to disarm Hezbollah could lead to a civil war. The US has also continued to strongly back Israel’s action in Lebanon, even though it has flagrantly violated the ceasefire deal signed in November 2024 and continues to conduct near-daily strikes. Since the truce deal was signed, Israel has killed hundreds of people in southern Lebanon, including at least 103 civilians.Israel has continued to bomb Lebanon even after the Lebanese government said it agreed to the US and Israeli demand to disarm Hezbollah. In late August, two Lebanese soldiers were killed when a crashed Israeli drone they were investigating in southern Lebanon exploded. A few weeks earlier, six Lebanese soldiers were killed in an explosion while working to dismantle an arms depot in southern Lebanon that was believed to have previously belonged to Hezbollah.
CENTCOM Says Senior Islamist Militant Killed in Syria Strike - US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on Tuesday that they had killed Muhammad ‘Abd-al-Wahhab al-Ahmad in a strike last week. Ahmad was, according to the statement, a member of “Ansar al-Islam.”Few details were offered about the strike, which happened on Thursday, October 2 according to reports. Ansar al-Islam presumably means Jamaat Ansar al-Islam, which is an organization known to be active within Syria and, as suggested by the statement, aligned with al-Qaeda.The man they killed was claimed in the statement to be an “attack planner” for the group, though there was not substantial information available on this person or his history before he was killed.CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper says that the US intends to remain in the Middle East to “disrupt and defeat” militants. The US has continued to attack various Islamist groups active within Syria on the grounds they’re in line with al-Qaeda. The one faction they are not going after, however, is the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was al-Qaeda’s formal affiliate within Syria for years, and now dominates the central government in Damascus. The US removed the HTS from the list of designated terrorist groups back in June.
US Launches Its 81st Airstrike in Somalia This Year - US Africa Command said in a press release on Monday that its forces launched an airstrike in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region, as the Trump administration continues to bomb the country at a record pace.AFRICOM offered no details about the strike besides saying that it targeted the ISIS affiliate about 37 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bossaso. “Specific details about units and assets will not be released to ensure continued operations security,” the command said.The US backs local forces against ISIS in Puntland, as the Mogadishu-based Federal Government doesn’t control the region. The Puntland Counter-Terrorism Operations said in a post on X on October 3, the day of the US airstrike, that its forces “carried out an operation to clear fleeing ISIS terrorists.
Zelensky Says Ukraine Will Nominate Trump for Nobel Peace Prize If He Sends Tomahawk Missiles - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Thursday that Ukraine would nominate President Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize if he provides the country with Tomahawk missiles, a step that would mark a significant escalation of the proxy war and risk a major response from Russia.Zelensky told reporters that he and Trump discussed the possibility of the US supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks, which are nuclear-capable and have a range of over 1,000 miles, during their recent meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York.“During our most recent meeting, I didn’t hear a ‘no.’ What I did hear was that work will continue at the technical level and that this possibility will be considered,” Zelensky said, according toPOLITICO.“The plan for ending the war won’t be easy, but it is certainly the way forward. And if Trump gives the world — above all, the Ukrainian people — the chance for such a ceasefire, then yes, he should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. We will nominate him on behalf of Ukraine,” he added.Vice President JD Vance recently confirmed that the Trump administration is considering supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks by selling them to European countries, though it remains unclear if it’s a realistic option since the Ukrainian military lacks a way to fire them. Tomahawks are designed to be fired by US Navy warships and submarines, and the US has only recently developed and deployed ground-based launchers after withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday that if the US sends Tomahawks to Ukraine, it will “not just send the confrontation into a downward spiral, but also do irreparable damage to Russian-US relations, which have just begun to display certain elements indicating the resumption of a bilateral dialogue.”
Putin Says Supplying Ukraine With Tomahawk Missiles Could 'Ruin' US-Russia Relations - Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Sunday that if the US decided to arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, it could “ruin” relations between Washington and Moscow.“This will ruin our relations, or at least the emerging positive trend in these relations,” Putin said, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.Vice President JD Vance recently confirmed that the Trump administration was considering arming Ukraine with Tomahawks, a step that would mark a significant escalation of the proxy war since the missiles can fire at a distance of over 1,000 miles, putting Moscow well in range.It’s unclear if arming Ukraine with Tomahawks is a realistic option for the US since the missiles are designed to be fired out of US warships, and only in recent years has it developed a ground-launched, mobile version of a Tomahawk launcher. Such weapons systems were prohibited by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019.The Wall Street Journal reported last week that the US was also considering arming Ukraine with other types of missiles that have a range of around 500 miles, including Barracudas, air-launched missiles produced by Anduril. The report also said that President Trump had signed off on the Pentagon providing Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes inside Russia.In August, the Trump administration announced a weapons deal for Ukraine that will provide the country with Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM) air-launched missiles, which can hit targets up to 280 miles away. It’s unclear when the missiles will arrive, but once they do, they will be the longest-range weapons the US has provided Ukraine so far.Last year, the Biden administration backed Ukrainian strikes inside Russia using US-provided ATACMS missiles, which have a range of up to 190 miles. The Journal previously reported that the Trump administration stopped allowing Ukrainian ATACMS strikes on Russia, but that is poised to change now that the president has signed off on backing strikes inside Russian territory.
Russia Says Momentum Toward Ukraine Peace Deal Has Been 'Largely Exhausted' - Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov on Wednesday said that the momentum toward a peace deal in Ukraine following the August 15 summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been “largely exhausted” as the two sides remain very far apart on the conditions to end the war.“Unfortunately, it must be acknowledged that the powerful impetus of Anchorage in favor of agreements has been largely exhausted by the efforts of opponents and the efforts of supporters of the war to the last Ukrainian among Europeans,” Ryabkov said.“This is the result of destructive activity, primarily by Europeans, which we speak about openly and directly,” the Russian diplomat added.In the wake of the Alaska summit, the US’s European allies continued to push for a deployment of European troops to Ukraine as part of a potential future detail, an arrangement Russia made clear would be a non-starter. President Trump also expressed support for the European deployment, making the chances of a deal unlikely.As the weeks went on, Trump appeared to adopt a maximalist position on the war, saying in a post on Truth Social that he believes Ukraine, with support from Europe, could win the war and retake all of the territory Russia has captured. Now, his administration is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles, which would mark a significant escalation of the proxy war since they have a range of over 1,000 miles. Russian officials have been warning strongly against the US supplying Ukraine with Tomahawks, a warning Ryabkov repeated on Wednesday, saying it would be a “serious shift in the situation.” He said that he hoped “those urging Washington toward such a move realize the depth and gravity of its consequences.”
Trump Calls Off Diplomacy With Venezuela's Maduro, Making Regime Change War More Likely - President Trump has called off diplomatic efforts to reach an agreement with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, The New York Times reported on Monday, a step that paves the way for more US military escalations and makes a US attempt at regime change in Venezuela more likely.US officials told The Times that during a meeting with US military officials on Thursday, the president called his special envoy, Ric Grenell, who had been leading the efforts to negotiate with Maduro, and instructed him to halt all diplomatic outreach with the Venezuelan government. About two weeks ago, Grenell said he was still in contact with the Venezuelan government, comments that angered other officials within the Trump administration. Grenell has reportedly clashed with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a long-time proponent of regime change in Venezuela who has been driving the current policy. The Times report said that Trump has been frustrated with Maduro for not voluntarily stepping down from power and his government’s insistence that it’s not involved in drug trafficking. The US has drawn up plans for military escalation, including potential direct strikes on Venezuela aimed at ousting Maduro. So far, US military action in the region has involved the bombing of at least four boats that the Trump administration has claimed, without evidence, were carrying drugs, military action that lacks legal authorization. Based on numbers released by the administration, at least 21 people have been extrajudicially executed at sea by the US military since the strikes started on September 2. The US has also significantly built up its military assets in the region, and according to theWashington Examiner, US military planners believe the forces are now sufficient to seize and hold key strategic facilities such as ports and airfields on Venezuelan territory. Any attempts to seize strategic sites inside Venezuela would likely provoke a full-blown war with the government, which says it has a militia of over 4 million people that it’s ready to mobilize. President Trump appeared to threaten strikes on “land” inside Venezuela in a speech on Sunday. “In recent weeks, the Navy has supported our mission to blow the cartel terrorists the hell out of the water … we did another one last night. Now we just can’t find any,” he told a crowd of US Navy sailors at Norfolk Naval Station in Virginia. “They’re not coming in by sea anymore, so now we’ll have to start looking about the land because they’ll be forced to go by land,” the president added.
Report: Trump Administration Working on Strategy To 'Eliminate' Venezuela's Maduro - The Trump administration is working on a strategy to “eliminate” Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, according to a report from POLITICO’s National Security Daily. The report focused on US special envoy Ric Grenell, who was recently instructed to halt his diplomatic efforts with the Venezuelan government. Sources told NatSec Daily that they didn’t think the move meant Grenell was on the outs, but rather that the US was now focused on escalating its efforts to oust Maduro.“The president is serious. No more mixed messages. No more excuses,” a person familiar with the Trump administration’s thinking told NatSec Daily. “There is now a coherent whole-of-government strategy to eliminate Cartel de los Soles and its leader.”The “Cartel de los Soles” is a term used to describe a network of Venezuelan government officials allegedly involved in drug trafficking. The group does not actually exist as an organization, but the US has declared it a “terrorist” group and has claimed Maduro is its leader.Maduro and other Venezuelan officials have strongly denied the US allegations, pointing to data that shows the majority of the cocaine that is produced in Colombia doesn’t go through Venezuela. President Trump has framed the military campaign in the region, which has involvedbombing at least four boats, as a response to overdose deaths in the US due to fentanyl, but fentanyl isn’t produced in Venezuela, and it does not go through the country on its way to the US.The Trump administration appears to be determined to escalate things to the next level, which could involve bombing Venezuela or attempting to seize strategic ports or airfields in the country, steps that would almost certainly provoke a full-blown war with the government.
Pete Hegseth's ultimatum to generals triggers fears of mass exodus across armed forces - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “my way or the highway” message to hundreds of generals and admirals at a summit in Virginia last week has sparked fears that some top leaders may choose to bow out of the U.S. military entirely. The departure of two senior leaders last week stoked those worries, though the Pentagon says they were unrelated to Hegseth’s ultimatum. “His speech directly attacked the values of many of the senior officers and enlisted members in the audience, and I would expect many of them to demonstrate their disgust by retiring,” Don Christensen, a retired Air Force colonel and former military lawyer who watched the speech, said of Hegseth. The two senior military leaders to leave were Gen. Thomas Bussiere, the head of Air Force Global Strike Command, and Gen. Bryan Fenton, head of U.S. Special Operations Command based at MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa, Fla. Bussiere, who was appointed by President Trump, was previously nominated to serve as the Air Force’s vice chief of staff in August, but his nomination was pulled just weeks later. In his retirement announcement, posted to Facebook on Tuesday, he cited “personal and family reasons” as the main driver for his departure, noting he had made the “difficult” decision after much reflection. Fenton’s retirement came after three years in the role. “FWIW, Gen. Fenton was planning on retiring, it was not tied to SecWar’s speech,” Kristina Wong, an adviser to Hegseth, wrote last week on the social platform X. The high-profile exits came just hours after Hegseth’s speech to hundreds of top admirals and generals in Quantico, Va., in which he outlined his vision of a military void of “woke garbage,” proposing less restrictive rules of engagement and fewer waivers that allow troops to have a beard. He also declared he would curtail whistleblower and inspector general functions, change how the military handles allegations of hazing and other types of abuse, and allow drill sergeants to “put their hands on recruits.” “If the words I’m speaking today are making your heart sink, then you should do the honorable thing and resign,” Hegseth told the mostly stoic audience. The comments prompted The New York Times to run an unusual headline last week, in which it invited senior military leaders to speak to the outlet should they indeed decide to resign. “Are You Quitting the Military? We Want to Hear From You,” the Times’s Sept. 30 headline read. Some Democrats are urging military leaders who disagree with Hegseth to stay where they are. “If the challenge was ‘get out,’ then I would say to those generals, ‘stay put,’” Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.), an Air Force veteran, said on CNN last week. “Because we need you. We need you and your experience to counter the message of Mr. Hegseth and frankly the president himself.” Hegseth also promised to continue firing top brass who did not align with his vision. And Friday, he announced the ouster of Jon Harrison, the chief of staff of the secretary of the Navy, who was an appointee during the first Trump administration.
Former Army vice chief of staff ‘concerned’ about Hegseth’s ‘attack on women’ Gen. Peter Chiarelli, the former Army vice chief of staff, said he is “concerned” about Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “attack on women” in the military on Sunday.“I’m concerned about what I considered an attack on women, and the fact that there are people who say that women have been let into different combat fields and cannot meet the standards,” Chiarelli said on ABC’s “This Week.” “I just don’t believe that’s true.”Chiarelli’s remarks come days after Hegseth, during a speech to more than 800 generals and admirals, said that every combat role should return “to the highest male standard” of their respective branches. “If women can make it, excellent. If not, it is what it is,” Hegseth said Tuesday in Quantico, Va. “It will also mean that weak men won’t qualify — because we’re not playing games. This is combat. This is life or death.”Each military branch has its own physical fitness test, with current iterations featuring different criteria based on gender. For example, the Army fitness test — a five-event assessment that requires 350 points to pass — says men from ages 17-21 must deadlift 150 pounds to receive 60 points, 220 pounds to receive 75 points and 340 pounds to receive 100 points. For women ages 17-21, they must lift 120 pounds for 60 points, 140 pounds for 75 points and 220 pounds for 100 points. But combat roles, including infantry, armor and pararescue, are subject to gender-neutral fitness standards. Starting in January 2016, all military roles were made open to women.“I know when the Army opened up the Ranger program, the standards did not change at all. Not at all,” Chiarelli added. “And the fact of the matter is on today’s battlefield, everybody’s in combat.”Prior to his Senate confirmation, Hegseth told senators he supported women serving in all positions in the military. According to the Pentagon’s 2023 Demographics Report, there are more than 225,000 active-duty women in the armed forces, accounting for nearly 18 percent of active service members. Hegseth had previously expressed disapproval of women serving in combat roles. Last month, the Pentagon eliminated a decades-old advisory committee on women in the armed forces.
Hegseth announces ‘barracks task force’ during speech to new recruits - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the formation of a new “barracks task force” to improve living conditions for U.S. service members during his Tuesday speech to new military recruits at the Naval Air Station Oceana in Virginia. Hegseth said the Department of Defense (DOD) task force will be in charge of developing a “department-wide” barracks investment plan within the next 30 days and that President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed into law in early July, “gave over a billion dollars as the down payment in this effort.” “We are going to fix the barracks issue across all of our services, because two years ago, the Government Accountability Office released a report said, quote, ‘poor living conditions undermine quality of life and readiness,'” Hegseth said, referring to the 2023 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report. GAO said in the report that “hundreds of thousands of service members live in military barracks. Concerns about poor living conditions and how DOD is managing the barracks go back decades.” “We observed barracks in poor condition, including some with safety risks like sewage overflow and inoperable fire systems,” the nonpartisan watchdog wrote. “And some barracks don’t meet DOD requirements for privacy or amenities.” The Pentagon chief said that “despite that report, the Biden administration did nothing.” “It is simply unacceptable that in some cases, our warriors continue to live in substandard housing,” he said. “Every war fighter of our joint force deserves housing that is clean, comfortable and safe.”
US foreign adversaries use ChatGPT with other AI models in cyber operations: Report -Malicious actors from U.S. foreign adversaries used ChatGPT jointly with other AI models to conduct various cyber operations, according to a new OpenAI report. Users linked to China and Russia relied on OpenAI’s technology in conjunction with other models, such as China’s DeepSeek, to conduct phishing campaigns and covert influence operations, the report found. A cluster of ChatGPT accounts that showed signs consistent with Chinese government intelligence efforts used the AI model to generate content for phishing campaigns in multiple languages, in addition to developing tools and malware. This group also looked at using DeepSeek to automate this process, such as analyzing online content to generate a list of email targets and produce content that would likely appeal to them. OpenAI banned the accounts but noted it could not confirm whether they ultimately used automation with other AI models. Another cluster of accounts based in Russia used ChatGPT to develop scripts, SEO-optimized descriptions and hashtags, translations and prompts for generating news-style videos with other AI models. The activity appears to be part of a Russian influence operation that OpenAI previously identified, which posted AI-generated content across websites and social media platforms, the report noted. Its latest content criticized France and the U.S. for their role in Africa while praising Russia. The accounts, now banned by OpenAI, also produced content critical of Ukraine and its supporters. However, the ChatGPT maker found that these efforts gained little traction. OpenAI separately noted in the report that it banned several accounts seemingly linked to the Chinese government that sought to use ChatGPT to develop proposals for large-scale monitoring, such as tracking social media or movements. “While these uses appear to have been individual rather than institutional, they provide a rare snapshot into the broader world of authoritarian abuses of AI,” the company wrote.
US deports 10 more migrants to Eswatini - The United States has deported 10 more migrants to Eswatini, a country in southeast Africa, weeks after sending an initial group of five migrants to the country, according to The Associated Press.The flight with the 10 migrants from various locations originated in Louisiana and reached Eswatini earlier Monday, after stops in Puerto Rico, Senegal and Angola, the AP reported, citing officials on the ground and a lawyer for two of the deportees.The five men deported earlier this year — from Cuba, Jamaica, Laos and Yemen — had various criminal backgrounds and convictions, according to a post from a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spokesperson at the time. The Trump administration also recently notified the team of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was accidentally deported to El Salvador earlier this year, that immigration authorities were seeking to deport him to Eswatini, according to a DHS spokesperson. Eswatini is a small kingdom of 1.2 million people bordering South Africa where King Mswati III has ruled with absolute power for almost 40 years. Human Rights Watch says it has reviewed documents that show the U.S. will pay Eswatini $5.1 million as part of a deal to take up to 160 deportees.
Marjorie Taylor Greene pushes English-language law ahead of Bad Bunny Super Bowl - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) on Monday called on Congress to make English the official language of America, after singer-songwriter Bad Bunny urged the country to learn Spanish before he headlines the Super Bowl halftime show in February. “Bad Bunny says America has 4 months to learn Spanish before his perverse unwanted performance at the Super Bowl halftime,” Greene wrote in a post on the social platform X. “It would be a good time to pass my bill to make English the official language of America,” she continued. “And the NFL needs to stop having demonic sexual performances during its halftime shows.” The selection of the Puerto Rican pop star to perform at this season’s Super Bowl has sparked a fierce backlash among conservatives and Trump supporters, who see the choice as the NFL picking a fight with the president and MAGA Republicans. The recording artist has a history of speaking out against President Trump and has said he would not tour in the mainland U.S. over concerns his fans could be targeted by federal immigration enforcement. The Trump administration has threatened to send Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers to the Super Bowl in California, and several leading MAGA figures have complained about Bad Bunny’s political positions. Bad Bunny, born Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, addressed the sharp opposition from the right during his opening monologue as guest host of “Saturday Night Live” this past weekend, saying he is “very happy” to be Super Bowl LX’s musical headliner, quipping — to laughter — that “everyone is happy about it, even Fox News.”
Border Patrol agent shoots woman accused in alleged ambush in Chicago A Border Patrol agent in Chicago shot a woman after she and at least one other person allegedly rammed cars into vehicles carrying federal authorities, as protests over immigration enforcement intensify and the Trump administration vows to deploy federal troops to the Democratic stronghold. Chicago residents Marimar Martinez and Anthony Ian Santos Ruiz were arrested on charges of assaulting, impeding and interfering with the work of federal agents with a deadly weapon, according to a criminal complaint filed in the Northern District of Illinois. Attorneys for Martinez and Ruiz could not immediately be reached for comment. Authorities say on Saturday, Oct. 4, Martinez and Ruiz rammed their cars into a vehicle carrying Border Patrol agents in a suburb of Chicago. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said agents shot Martinez, a U.S. citizen, and accused her of possessing a “semi-automatic weapon.” A criminal complaint establishing probable cause did not mention any weapon in Martinez's possession.Officials' statements on the incident have varied. The criminal complaint says at least four cars were involved in trapping the agents' vehicle. Tricia McLaughlin, assistant secretary for DHS, said on X agents were "boxed in by 10 cars." It appears only Martinez and Ruiz have faced criminal charges in connection with the incident.The episode unfolded in Broadview, a suburb west of the city that has become a flashpoint for protests against heightened immigration enforcement. Several protesters were arrested over the weekend and multiple Border Patrol agents were sent to the hospital after clashes outside the Broadview ICE facility, according to DHS.A criminal complaint filed in federal court said that on Oct. 4, a "civilian convoy" including Martinez and Ruiz were following Border Patrol agents as they were conducting an operation in Oak Lawn, Illinois.The pair "drove aggressively and erratically" toward the Border Patrol cruiser, running red lights and stop signs, and driving the wrong way down one way streets, the complaint says. The chase brought them into Chicago, where authorities say at least four vehicles "boxed in" the Border Patrol agents.Including photographs and citing body camera footage, the complaint says Martinez and Ruiz struck the Border Patrol vehicle around 10:30 a.m. After the collisions, Martinez allegedly drove toward one of the Border Patrol agents, who fired five shots at her before she continued driving away. The complaint says Martinez then headed to a repair shop one mile from the crash site and was taken by paramedics to a hospital, where she was treated for gunshot wounds. The complaint did not mention a "semi-automatic weapon," as the statement from the Department of Homeland Security did. Federal agents arrested Ruiz at a gas station a half block from where the collision occurred, according to the complaint. His mother, Elizabeth Ruiz, said in an interview with the New York Times that her son gave a different account of the incident. He told his mother that other cars were chasing federal agents and that the agents had struck his vehicle, the outlet reported. “‘Mom, they hit me, they hit me,’” she told the New York Times, recalling her conversation with her son. “‘I said, ‘What do you mean?’ And he said ‘ICE.’”Chicago has seen large-scale raids involving helicopters and masked agents since last month, when the White House ordered an immigration crackdown known as Operation Midway Blitz. More than 800 people have been arrested, according to federal tallies.For weeks, hundreds have protested outside an ICE facility in Broadview, with protesters blocking ICE vehicles and federal agents deploying pepper spray, tear gas and non-lethal ammunition. After DHS agents fired at Martinez, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem vowed to send reinforcements and special operations to the scene.On Saturday, Oct. 4, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker warned that President Donald Trump’s administration plans to federalize 300 members of the Illinois National Guard.“Trump Administration’s Department of War gave me an ultimatum: call up your troops, or we will,” Pritzker wrote on X. “It is absolutely outrageous and un-American to demand a Governor send military troops within our own borders and against our will.”
ICE accidentally tear gases Chicago police during clash with protesters --Chicago Police Department officers were caught in clouds of tear gas during clashes with protesters in the city on Saturday after Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents deployed the chemical agent. Newsweek has contacted the Chicago Police Department and the Department of Homeland Security for comment via email outside office hours. Chicago has been a key battleground city in the White House’s efforts to escalate federal immigration enforcement, with recent weeks seeing more confrontations between federal agents and protesters and journalists at an ICE facility in Broadview, a suburb of Chicago. Videos showing agents deploying tear gas, firing pepper balls, and forcibly throwing protesters to the ground have circulated widely, amid the administration’s hard-line crackdown. According to footage filmed by witness Ryan Garza, several officers can be seen rubbing their eyes, squinting, and struggling with the aftereffects of the gas on October 4. In the video, people nearby can be heard shouting “Wake up, wake up!” and “Arrest ICE” as the officers attempted to recover. News agency Storyful verified that tear gas was deployed during the protest. Local officials have raised concerns about ICE’s use of crowd-control measures in the city. Authorities have previously criticized the deployment of tear gas, pepper spray, and rubber bullets, warning that they pose risks not only to protesters and bystanders, but also to police officers and firefighters working at the scene. Broadview Police Chief Thomas Mills said his officers had been exposed to tear gas multiple times during previous incidents involving ICE agents. Mills emphasized that the repeated exposure created a “dangerous situation” for the community and first responders. He also noted that during a September 12 incident, an ICE agent verbally assaulted him while he was on the scene ensuring everyone’s First Amendment rights were protected, adding that in his 37 years of working with federal agencies, such behavior had never occurred. Tensions between ICE and local law enforcement in the Chicagoland area have escalated in recent weeks. Mills accused immigration agents of making false 911 calls, including one instance in which an agent reported someone tampering with a gate at the Broadview facility. When officers responded, they found only a photographer and a security guard outside the building. Mills called the incident “disturbing” and noted it was part of a pattern of questionable calls and other aggressive actions by ICE agents, including the use of chemical agents and projectiles against journalists. He has opened criminal investigations and is considering legal action to hold the agency accountable. Meanwhile, a cabinet-making business located next to the Broadview ICE processing facility reported that tear gas entered their warehouse and that employees were struck by pepper balls, according to the Chicago Sun-Times. The crackdown comes amid Operation Midway Blitz, a federal initiative launched in early September to apprehend undocumented immigrants, particularly those with criminal records, across Chicago and Illinois. Nearly 5,000 people have been detained in Illinois so far this year, according to data from The Deportation Data Project analyzed by the Chicago Sun-Times. Multiple federal agencies, including ICE, the U.S. Border Patrol, the FBI, and the ATF, are coordinating the efforts. Critics have raised concerns about the aggressiveness of some raids, potential due-process violations, and the treatment of migrants in custody, amid growing national scrutiny of the administration’s immigration policies. It remains unclear how many officers were affected during Saturday’s clashes, or whether any sustained serious injuries. Neither ICE nor the Chicago Police Department has issued a public statement on the incident.
Donald Trump threatens to invoke Insurrection Act in Portland -- President Trump on Monday said he was considering invoking the Insurrection Act to justify sending federal troops into Portland, Ore., and avoid any legal hurdles. Trump in remarks from the Oval Office likened the situation in Portland to an “insurrection,” though he said he had yet to make a decision on invoking the Insurrection Act. “Portland is on fire. Portland’s been on fire for years,” Trump said, describing the situation as “all insurrection.” Asked under what conditions he would invoke the Insurrection Act, Trump said he would do it “if it was necessary.” “So far, it hasn’t been necessary. But we have an Insurrection Act for a reason,” Trump said. “If I had to enact it, I’d do that. If people were being killed, and courts were holding us up or governors or mayors were holding us up, sure, I’d do that. I mean, I want to make sure people aren’t killed.” Trump also described his administration’s clashes with local and state officials and the courts over deploying the National Guard to Portland as an insurrection. “I really think that’s really criminal insurrection,” Trump said. Portland has been the focus of intensifying criticism from the Trump administration amid ongoing protests over immigration enforcement in the city. There have been protests in Portland dating to June in response to the Trump administration’s aggressive deportation efforts. The FBI field office in Portland said Thursday it had made 128 arrests in the city since June 9. A federal judge in a ruling late Sunday temporarily blocked the administration from sending National Guard troops to Oregon. U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut, a Trump appointee, previously granted Oregon officials their request for a restraining order against Trump ordering Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to deploy Oregon National Guard troops to Portland. In response to Immergut’s initial ruling, Trump sought to deploy California National Guard troops to Portland, a move met with swift backlash from California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D). Invoking the Insurrection Act could give Trump a way around the courts, but it likely would prompt widespread backlash amid concerns about the deployment of the military in American cities. At the same time, Illinois and Chicago earlier Monday sued to block Trump’s deployment of National Guard members to the city after the administration moved to send in hundreds of troops.
DHS Highlights Slew Of September Immigration Arrests In Portland - The Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrested several “worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens” in Portland, Oregon, last month, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in an Oct. 7 statement. The announcement comes amid a tussle between the Trump administration and officials in Portland and Oregon over the deployment of National Guard troops to protect federal agents carrying out immigration operations.“We are not allowing domestic terrorists to slow us down from removing the worst of the worst,”DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin said.“President Trump has deployed a SURGE of federal resources to Portland. Enhanced CBP, ICE, FBI, DOJ and DEA resources are arresting rioters and Antifa domestic terrorists.”Among those arrested was a Honduran national convicted of distributing fentanyl; a Canadian national convicted of two counts of sexual abuse in the first degree; a Mexican national who was previously arrested for possessing dangerous weapons; a Peruvian national convicted of luring a minor; and another Mexican national convicted of possessing heroin with the intent to distribute it, the statement said.On Sept. 28, War Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a memo at the request of President Donald Trump, informing the leader of the Oregon National Guard that 200 members would be called up for federal service. The same day, Oregon filed a lawsuit seeking to block the move, arguing that Trump exceeded his executive authority.On Oct. 4, Judge Karin J. Immergut, of the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon, ruled that Trump violated the 10th Amendment and that Oregon would “suffer an injury to its sovereignty” once the federalized National Guards are deployed in Portland. She issued a temporary restraining order against such deployment, valid until Oct. 18. On Saturday, ICE’s offices in Portland saw demonstrations, with some protestors using megaphones to chant “ICE out of Portland!”During protests the previous day, some protesters also threatened federal agents. On Tuesday, Oregon Governor Tina Kotek’s office said she directed the Northern Command to take swift action to send the National Guard members back home. “Judge Karin J. Immergut’s orders are a clear and forceful rebuttal to President Trump’s misuse of states’ National Guard. Thus, I am directing Northern Command to send Oregon’s citizen-soldiers home from Camp Rilea immediately,” Kotek said. “Let’s remember that these Oregonians are our neighbors and friends, who have been unlawfully uprooted from their family and careers—they deserve better than this.” In an Oct. 7 statement, Portland Mayor Keith Wilson raised concerns about federal agents in the city. “I continue to maintain that the tactics used by federal agents at the ICE facility are troubling and likely unconstitutional,” he said. “I intend to explore options to protect our community and our right to free expression.” Speaking to reporters at the Oval Office on Monday, Trump suggested he may consider invoking the Insurrection Act if required. “So far, it hasn’t been necessary. But we have an Insurrection Act for a reason,” Trump said. “If I had to enact it, I‘d do that. If people were being killed, and courts were holding us up, or governors and mayors were holding us up, sure, I’d do that. I mean, I want to make sure that people aren’t killed. We have to make sure that our cities are safe.”
Republican senators question Donald Trump's use of National Guard across state lines - Republican senators are increasingly uneasy about President Trump’s standoff with Democratic governors over deploying National Guard troops from other states to Portland, Ore., and Chicago. The conflict between federal and state authorities escalated dramatically over the weekend when Trump moved to send National Guard soldiers to Oregon and Illinois despite opposition from their respective governors, Tina Kotek and JB Pritzker. Trump’s use of military forces was all the more controversial because a Trump-appointed federal judge for the District of Oregon ruled Saturday that the administration could not federalize Oregon’s National Guard to support Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in Portland. Senate Republicans want to support Trump’s efforts to crack down on illegal immigration, but they said the president’s actions are raising alarming questions about states’ rights, presidential authority and the precedent of deploying National Guard troops across state lines. “I worry about someday a Democrat president sending troops or National Guard from New York, California, Oregon, Washington state to North Carolina. I think it’s bad precedent,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. “If you look at this particular issue, I don’t see how you can argue that this comports with any sort of conservative view of states’ rights,” he added. Tillis told Attorney General Pam Bondi at a Senate Judiciary Committee oversight hearing Wednesday that the cities and states should be handling local crime themselves. “I’m having a real struggle right now with the National Guard being deployed and masking the abject failure of leaders at the state and local level,” he said. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she’s worried about the precedent of sending National Guard members from one state to another despite the objections of those states’ governors. “It’s one thing if governors ask and they say, ‘Hey, I need help.’ That’s the way we’ve handled it before,” she said. “I am concerned, I am very apprehensive about the use of our military for policing and, more, the politicization that we’re seeing within the military.” She said the use of the National Guard to respond to natural disasters when requested by the governor of a state makes perfect sense but warned that Trump is moving into a dangerous new realm. “This is not the role of our military,” she said.
Appeals court restores Trump’s control over Oregon National Guard, but deployment remains barred- A federal appeals court on Wednesday lifted a judge’s order blocking President Trump from calling Oregon National Guard troops into federal service, but he still may not deploy them, for now. The temporary, administrative stay puts U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut’s order halting Trump’s federalization of the National Guard members on hold while the appeals court weighs whether to extend the pause as it considers the administration’s appeal. But it keeps in place her second order barring the president from sending the troops anywhere in the state. A three-judge panel on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit wrote in a brief order Wednesday that the decision best preserves the “status quo.” “The effect of granting an administrative stay preserves the status quo in which National Guard members have been federalized but not deployed,” they wrote. The panel — made up of two Trump appointees and an appointee of President Clinton — will hear arguments Thursday about whether to pause Immergut’s order until ruling on the administration’s appeal. The Trump administration had urged the appeals court to act by Monday, contending Immergut “impermissibly second-guessed” Trump’s military judgments. “The district court’s order improperly impinges on the Commander in Chiefs supervision of military operations, countermands a military directive to officers in the field and endangers federal personnel and property,” DOJ lawyers wrote in Sunday court filings.
Trump's $100,000 fee for H-1B worker visas challenged in lawsuit - A coalition of unions, employers and religious groups filed a lawsuit on Friday seeking to block President Donald Trump's bid to impose a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas for high-skilled foreign workers. The lawsuit filed in federal court in San Francisco is the first to challenge Trump's proclamation issued last month announcing the fee. The United Auto Workers union, American Association of University Professors and other plaintiffs say Trump's power to restrict the entry of certain foreign nationals does not allow him to override the law that created the H-1B visa program. The program allows U.S. employers to hire foreign workers in specialty fields, and technology companies in particular rely heavily on workers who receive H-1B visas. Critics of H-1Bs and other work visa programs say they are often used to replace American workers with cheaper foreign labor. But business groups and major companies have said H-1Bs are a critical means to address a shortage of qualified American workers. Employers who sponsor H-1B workers currently typically pay between $2,000 and $5,000 in fees, depending on the size of the company and other factors. Trump's order bars new H-1B recipients from entering the United States unless the employer sponsoring their visa has made an additional $100,000 payment. The administration has said the order does not apply to people who already hold H-1B visas or those who submitted applications before September 21.
U.S. Bishops need to address Trump immigration crackdown: Pope Leo - Pope Leo XIV told U.S. bishops to openly state their concerns regarding the Trump administration’s immigration policies on Wednesday, according to Reuters.During his meeting at the Vatican with the bishops and social workers from the border between the U.S. and Mexico, the pope received letters from migrants regarding their concerns around President Trump’s mass deportation efforts. Since Trump returned to office in January, federal immigration officers have conducted sweeping raids in communities across the country. According to the latest Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) data, the agency has removed more than 71,405 people this year. The operations have sparked widespread protests and fears from migrant communities and their supporters. The crackdown has also been met with various legal challenges. Mark Seitz, the bishop of El Paso, Texas, told Reuters that the pope is “very personally concerned about these matters” and “expressed his desire that the U.S. Bishops’ Conference would speak strongly on this issue.”The Hill has reached out to the Vatican to confirm the pope’s remarks. The White House referred The Hill to press secretary Karoline Leavitt’s response disputing Leo’s stance from last week. Last month, Leo said that those who are against abortion but in support of the “inhuman treatment of immigrants” in the U.S. are not “pro-life.”
Postal traffic to US still down 70% five weeks after duties exemption on low-value packages ended --Postal traffic is to the U.S. is still down about 70% five weeks after the end of the “de minimis” exemption that spared low-value packages from duties and packages, the United Nations postal agency said Friday. Confusion has reigned since the U.S. ended the tariff exemption for packages worth less than $800 on Aug. 29. In September, the Universal Postal Union reported 88 of its 192 member countries had suspended all or some of its postal services to the U.S. to have time to adjust their shipping procedures. On Friday, the UPU said “only a handful” of those had resumed operations to the U.S. The organization said traffic to the U.S. on Oct. 3 was down 70.7% compared with volume one week before the regulatory changes. On Aug. 29, when the exemption ended, volume plummeted 81% from a week earlier. Bern, Switzerland-based UPU said it is rolling out technology that will help members calculate, collect and remit required duties to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection through the UPU’s Customs Declaration System. “Postal services are essential services,” said Lati Matata, Director of the UPU’s Postal Technology Centre, in a statement. The technology, an application programming interface, or API, will allow “every postal operator in (UPU’s) network – no matter how big or small – to meet customs requirements to ensure that citizens worldwide, including U.S citizens, receive their postal items,” Matata said. Since the exemption ended, purchases that previously entered the U.S. without needing to clear customs now require vetting and are subject to their origin country’s applicable tariff rate, which can range from 10% to 50%.
US liquor exports to Canada drop 85 percent -United States liquor exports to Canada declined by 85 percent in the second quarter of 2025, according to a new report, which cited the “adverse impact” of ongoing trade tensions. The midyear report, released Monday by the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS), shows that exports to Canada dropped to $9.6 million in the second quarter of 2025, down from $63.1 million in the second quarter of 2024. President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. trading partners earlier this year, including a 35 percent tariff on Canada. Goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, which Trump struck during his first term, are exempt from the tariffs. Canada responded with counter tariffs but lifted most of them on Sept. 1. Still, according to the report, “the majority of Provinces continue to ban American spirits from their shelves. Canada remains the only key trading partner to retaliate against U.S. spirits.” Overall, U.S. exports of distilled spirits declined by 9 percent year over year in the second quarter of 2025: from $651 million in the second quarter of 2024 to $593.6 million in the second quarter of 2025. In other international markets, U.S. exports of spirits also took a hit. Exports to the European Union, the U.S. industry’s largest market, decreased by 12 percent, falling from $330.7 million in the second quarter of 2024 to $290.3 million in the second quarter of 2025. U.S. exports to the United Kingdom declined by 29 percent, from $37.7 million in the second quarter of last year to $26.9 million in the second quarter of this year. And exports to Japan dropped 23 percent, from $27.7 million last year to $21.4 million this year. DISCUS President and CEO Chris Swonger warned that “persistent trade tensions are having an immediate and adverse effect on U.S. spirits exports.” “There’s a growing concern that our international consumers are increasingly opting for domestically produced spirits or imports from countries other than the U.S., signaling a shift away from our great American spirits brands,” Swonger continued.
Billionaire beef boss says Americans crave so much protein the country is outpacing its own production and turning to imports - One of the billionaire brothers behind the biggest meat-processing company in the world is worried about satisfying America’s insatiable craving for protein.Wesley Batista, who, with his brother Joesley Batista, controls the $15 billion Brazilian meat-packing behemoth JBS, said the U.S. needs to import more product from abroad to meet demand.“The U.S. is facing the highest beef price in history and so the U.S. needs to import more and more because production is not there to support the demand,” Batista said in remarks reported by the Financial Times. Protein-heavy diets have become so popular that the macronutrient is showing up in consumables from packaged food to Starbucks lattes. A study by JBS competitor Cargill also found 60% of consumers said they increased their protein in 2024, up from under half who said the same in 2019.Batista believes the influx of GLP-1 drugs could also be fueling the protein craze.“No one knows exactly what is the impact of these new drugs, Ozempic or Mounjaro…but something is happening because protein overall became [a trend],” Batista said, according to the FT. “In the past…the doctor said you should not eat too [many] eggs, you should not eat too much protein. Now it’s the other way around.”Despite being the world’s No. 1 beef producer, the U.S. has had to turn to runner-up producer Brazil for a lifeline this year as cattle herds thinned out. Even the 10% “Liberation Day” tariff imposed by the Trump administration in April didn’t stop the flow of Brazilian beef. Imports were up 91% in the first half of the year.To be sure, imports of beef from Brazil started to fall in August after President Donald Trump increased tariffs on the country to a total of 50%, in part because of political disputes. But other countries such as Australia, with only a 10% tariff, stand to gain. The USDA said beef imports overall for the second half of the year were predicted to increase as well, bringing the total volume of beef imported 16% higher than the previous year.Batista, who was previously CEO of JBS and now sits on the board, added JBS was not hit hard from the tariffs because it produces most of its meat for the U.S. market domestically. JBS is the top producer of beef in the U.S., and its shares started trading on the New York Stock Exchange in June. JBS’s American business made up just under a third of its global sales as of its third fiscal quarter ended in August. Meanwhile, the price of a pound of ground beef has jumped 13% to a record high of $6.32 in U.S. cities as of the latest available date in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Plummeting cattle supply has not helped. The U.S. had an estimated 28.7 million head of beef cattle as of July, the lowest since data started being collected in 1973.
China halts US soybean imports to hit Trump’s MAGA supporters --China has halted its purchases of soybeans from the United States in recent months, a move seen as a calculated effort to pressure the Trump administration amid intensifying trade tensions.Beijing’s suspension marks a sharp decline in the US-China agricultural trade relationships and has rattled the heart of America’s farming community. The freeze comes as both sides prepare for a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month. As of now, the Trump-Xi meeting plans have not been finalized. “The soybean farmers of our country are being hurt because China is, for ‘negotiating’ reasons only, not buying,” Trump said in a social media post on October 1. “We’ve made so much money on tariffs that we are going to take a small portion of that and help our farmers.”For decades, the soybean trade has been a cornerstone of Sino-US agricultural cooperation. As part of its 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization, China removed import quotas and imposed a uniform 3% tariff, resulting in a surge in US soybean imports.In 2017, China imported 32.58 million tons of US soybeans, but the volume fell to 16.64 million tons in 2018 due to the Trump administration’s trade war, according to China Customs. Imports later stabilized at around 20 million tons per year until the 2022 pandemic disrupted supplies and pushed China to diversify its sourcing to Brazil and Argentina.Last year, the US shipped 985 million bushels of soybeans to China, accounting for 51% of the country’s total soybean exports. By contrast, from January to August 2025, exports of US soybeans to China fell to just 218 million bushels with no deliveries recorded in June, July and August. Brazil, the world’s largest producer, is expected to harvest 169 million metric tons in the 2024/25 crop year, accounting for approximately 40% of global output.Although both sides agreed on May 12 to ease the confrontation, Chinese goods continue to face tariffs ranging from 30% to 50% in the US, while US exporters only have to pay a 10% tariff to ship their goods to China. Both sides then focused on other trade issues, such as rare earths and semiconductors.The current trade truce is set to expire on November 10 if negotiations between the two sides fail to progress. Meanwhile, Beijing has ordered its importers not to purchase any soybeans from the US since May. “Tariff war and trade war serve no one’s interest. The two sides need to address relevant issues through consultation based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said in a regular media briefing on September 23.” “If the US wants China to resume soybean purchases, the only way is to return to the negotiating table,” says a Zhejiang-based columnist writing under the pen name Linglingniang. “That must be based on equality, respect, and mutual benefit.” “Remove all those messy tariffs and restrictions first, let bilateral trade return to normal, and only then can we talk about soybeans again,” he says. “Trump is running out of time. China’s purchase orders have already been scheduled through November. If he delays any longer, the American harvest season will end, and those mountains of soybeans could be left to rot in storage.”
Snubbed by China: Trump team presses unlikely buyers to snap up US soybeans - South China Morning Post --Shut out of China’s massive soybean market, the United States is pressing countries across Africa and Asia to step up purchases of American soybeans, as President Donald Trump’s trade team seeks new markets, while tensions over tariffs ripple through global trade.“We’re calling up all our soybean customers around the world as part of our trade negotiations,” Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council at the White House, said in a CNBC interview on Monday. He added the Trump administration was “also getting ready to have really strong policies to support our farmers”.With silos full and exports drying up, Beijing – a major buyer of US soybeans – has not purchased any this season, diverting orders to Brazil and Argentina instead. In retaliation for Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, China imposed a 25 per cent levy on American soybeans in April, further eroding their price competitiveness.Beyond Beijing, top importers of US soybeans include Mexico, the European Union, Japan and Indonesia. Yet Trump’s team is pushing into untested markets such as India, already burdened by tariffs, as American farmers hunt for buyers from Vietnam to Nigeria.India, which is currently slapped with 50 per cent tariffs, including 25 per cent related to its purchases of Russian oil, is another possible buyer.
Indian Traders Begin Switching To Chinese Yuan For Russian Oil Purchases: Report - India’s state oil firm has begun making payments for Russian energy in Chinese currency, the yuan, according to a report released by Reuters on Tuesday. "Indian Oil Corporation recently made payments in Chinese currency for two to three cargoes of Russian oil,"informed sources told the British outlet. "Now, traders, which until now had to convert payments in dirhams or dollars into yuans – since only those can be directly exchanged into rubles needed to pay the producers – are seeking to remove one costly step from the process," one trade source said. Sources also said that traders are "pricing Russian oil in dollars to ensure adherence to the European Union's price cap and seeking equivalent yuan payment," adding that "payments in yuan will expand the availability of Russian oil for Indian state refiners, given some traders would not accept other currencies."US President Donald Trump recently cracked down hard on India over its energy ties to Russia. In late August, Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25 percent tariff on India due to its purchase of Russian oil.The tariffs stacked on top of 25 percent country-specific tariffs, which took effect on August 7, bringing the total levies up to 50 percent – among the highest imposed by the US.Russia ranks as India’s fourth-largest trade partner, while India holds the position of Russia’s second-largest. India is also among the largest buyers of Russian energy. New Delhi has also recently improved relations with Beijing. Last month, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his first trip to China in seven years.
Trump threatens tech export limits, new 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting Nov. 1 or sooner (AP) — President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to place an additional 100% tax on Chinese imports starting on Nov. 1 or sooner, potentially escalating tariff rates close to levels that in April fanned fears of a global recession. The president expressed frustration with new export controls placed on rare earth elements by China — and said on social media that “there seems to be no reason” to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping as part of an upcoming trip to South Korea. Trump later told reporters he had not canceled his meeting. “But I don’t know that we’re going to have it,” he said during an Oval Office appearance on another subject. “I’m going to be there regardless, so I would assume we might have it.” Trump also suggested there may be time to ratchet down his steep new tariff threat. “We’re going to have to see what happens. That’s why I made it Nov. 1,” he said. China’s new restrictions On Thursday, the Chinese government restricted access to rare earth minerals, requiring foreign companies to get special approval for shipping the metallic elements abroad. It also announced permitting requirements on exports of technologies used in the mining, smelting and recycling of rare earths, adding that any export requests for products used in military goods would be rejected. On social media, Trump described the export controls as “shocking” and “out of the blue.” He said China is “becoming very hostile” and that it’s holding the world “captive” by restricting access to the metals and magnets used in electronics, computer chips, lasers, jet engines and other technologies. Trump said in a post that “starting November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions or changes taken by China), the United States of America will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying.” The president also said the U.S. government would respond to China by putting its own export controls “on any and all critical software” from American firms.
Trump announces 100% tariff on China starting Nov. 1 - President Trump announced Friday he will raise tariffs on China in response to a move from Beijing to tighten its control over certain critical minerals and rare earth elements. Trump announced on Truth Social that he would impose a tariff of 100 percent on Chinese goods beginning Nov. 1 or sooner. Those tariffs will supersede existing duties already in place on Chinese goods. The president said his administration would also place export controls “on any and all critical software.” “It is impossible to believe that China would have taken such an action, but they have, and the rest is History,” Trump posted. China announced this week that foreign entities must obtain a license in order to export any products containing more than 0.1 percent of rare earths that are either sourced in China or manufactured using the country’s extraction process. China controls roughly 70 percent of the world’s rare metals and earths. Rare earths and critical minerals are used in numerous products, including cars, semiconductors and electronics like laptops. Trump in his Truth Social post called China’s move “absolutely unheard of in International Trade, and a moral disgrace in dealing with other Nations.” Trump earlier Friday had threatened countermeasures in response to the announcement from Beijing, and he suggested he may no longer meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during an upcoming summit in South Korea as previously planned. The president’s announcement of heightened tariffs came shortly after the stock market closed Friday. But stocks had already seen sharp losses on the day after Trump’s initial threat to impose new tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 876 points on the day, closing with a loss of 1.9 percent. The S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite plunged 3.6 percent before the closing bell.
Trump announces a 100% tariff increase on China after stocks and the dollar plummet. -- The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Treasury yields all fell on Friday as President Donald Trump's comments reignited fears of a U.S. - China trade war. Trump announced after the markets closed Friday that he would raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 100%, and place export controls on all "critical software". This was a response to China's recent announcement of export restrictions on rare earth minerals vital to manufacturing and tech. The announcement came after a Trump post on social media that indicated new tariffs would be imposed against Chinese products, and threatened to cancel a scheduled meeting with President Xi Jinping. The news caused a market panic, as investors worried about the impact of the trade war on the U.S. economic system. Trump's "Liberation Day", April 2, tariff announcement triggered some of the worst market volatility for years. The S&P 500 Technology index fell 4% and an index of semiconductors declined 6.3%. After the bell, shares continued to decline. Oil prices dropped more than $2 per barrel, as trade concerns cast a shadow on the outlook for demand. Spot gold rose back above $4,000 per ounce. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 878.82, or 1.99%, at 45479.60. The S&P 500 dropped 182.60 points or 2.71% at 6,552.51, and the Nasdaq composite was down 820.20, or 3.56 %, at 22,204.43. The U.S. Stock Indexes hit new highs this week due to expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate reductions and optimism regarding artificial intelligence deals. The S&P 500 registered its largest weekly percentage drop since May. The MSCI index of global stocks fell by 20.96 points or 2.11% to 972.51. The European share market ended the week 1.25% down, wiping out any weekly gains. This was due to a final-minute decline triggered by Trump's comments. U.S. Treasury Yields dropped to multi-week lows after investors moved into safe havens in response to Trump's initial comments. The movement in U.S. government debt yields has been stalled in recent days due to the U.S. shutdown of the federal government, which began on October 1. This shutdown has also halted production of important economic indicators. In the afternoon, the yield of the 10-year Treasury benchmark note in the United States fell to its lowest level in more than a month. It was down by 9.1 basis points at 4,057%. After Trump's comments, the U.S. Dollar dropped, lifting the euro and yen in comparison to the greenback. Currencies linked to commodities, raw materials and currencies like the Australian dollar fell. Last seen at 98.99, the dollar index fell 0.4%. The dollar index is still on track for a gain of 1.66% this week, the biggest since September 2024. This comes after the Japanese yen, and the euro were hit by concerns about fiscal policy in their respective regions. The euro rose 0.38% to $1.1607, and the yen gained 0.86% on the dollar. The Japanese currency dropped due to concerns that Bank of Japan might not raise interest rates this year following the surprise victory of fiscal dove Sanae Takayi as leader of the ruling party. Katsunobu Kato, the Japanese Finance Minister, said that his government is concerned by the excessive volatility of the foreign exchange markets.
US relies heavily on China, other nations for antibiotics --A new analysis by researchers at Johns Hopkins University shows the United States has become increasingly reliant on other countries for antibiotics over the past 30-plus years. The study, published late last week in JAMA Health Forum, found that annual importation of antibiotics increased approximately 26-fold from 1992 through 2024. One of the countries that has emerged as a major supplier is India, which has accounted for nearly one third of finished antibiotics imported to the United States since 2020. But of even greater concern is that China provides US domestic drug manufacturers with more than 60% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) needed to make the finished product. The authors of the study say the findings suggest the United States, which already faces persistent drug shortages and is no longer able to domestically produce key antibiotics such as penicillin and doxycycline, is becoming overdependent on other countries for its antibiotic supply and highly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions that could affect public health. Source of imported antibiotics has shifted The authors said the aim of their analysis was to provide some clarity on the sources of antibiotics sold in the United States, which have grown as US antibiotic production has waned. . But tracing where antibiotics come from is difficult, because most antibiotics are generic and can be made by multiple manufacturers. And even when a manufacturer is identified, the source of the API—the source of the drug's therapeutic effect—isn't always clear. For the study, the researchers examined data from USA Trade Online, a platform that tracks monthly US imports of all commodities collected by US Customs and Border Protection. They extracted importation records for antibiotic finished dosage forms (FDFs)—ie, the finished drug product—and APIs from 1992 through 2024, looking at the originating country, imported volume in metric tons, and the imported cost in US dollars. Antibiotics primarily used for veterinary purposes were excluded. The final sample included 50 FDF-originating countries and 52 API-originating countries. Over the 33-year study period, the annual volume of antibiotic FDF imports rose by 2,595%, while annual API imports remained relatively stable. Although annual spending on antibiotic FDF imports increased $1.5 billion, to $4.1 billion, annual spending on API imports progressively declined, and inflation-adjusted average importation prices declined significantly for both FDFs and APIs. For antibiotic FDFs, the top five importing countries from 2020 through 2024 were India (31.9% of the total imported volume), Italy (13.4%), Jordan (9%), Switzerland (8.5%), and Canada (7.7%). For antibiotic APIs, the top five importers were China (62.6% of the total imported volume), Bulgaria (16.1%), Spain (3.2%), Mexico (3.1%), and Israel (3.0%). API importing shifted significantly over the study period, with Europe accounting for 75% of API imports in 1992 and Asia accounting for 75% in 2024. China alone accounted for 70.1% of API imports in 2024. The analysis also found that FDF importation has become less concentrated over time, suggesting increasing competition, a finding the authors suggest reflects decades of incentives for pharmaceutical production in those countries. But API importation has become highly concentrated since 2008, with China dominating the space through a combination of government subsidies, lower labor costs, and less environmental regulation. "To the extent that domestic FDF manufacturers rely on imported APIs for their antibiotic production, the study's findings suggest that the US domestic antibiotic FDF industry relies heavily on Chinese APIs," they wrote. "Interruptions in Chinese exports due to geopolitical tensions, trade wars, manufacturing quality issues, or others could therefore substantially impact US domestic antibiotic production." "Expanding domestic manufacturing capacity (onshoring) and diversifying antibiotic supply chains through expanding sourcing from allied countries (friendshoring) are critical steps that depend on a detailed understanding of antibiotic supply chains and global sources," they wrote. "Specific drugs of critical interest should warrant targeted supply chain analysis and tailored strategies."
Children died waiting after Trump freeze of USAID stranded lifesaving drugs -An abrupt freeze of USAID operations ordered by President Donald Trump and overseen by Secretary of State Marco Rubio fractured a global health pipeline that provides HIV and malaria medications to more than 40 countries, leaving shipments stuck in warehouses, staff furloughed, and clinics without lifesaving drugs.The halting of the Global Health Supply Chain Program was among the administration’s first foreign aid actions. Rubio said that many USAID programs “run counter to what we’re trying to do in our national strategy” and moved to end operations. Portions of the program resumed within days, but “the suspension had lingering effects that left aid deliveries severely disrupted for months,” according to The Washington Post’s investigation. By the end of June, medical supplies worth more than $190 million were scheduled to reach distribution warehouses. Instead, nearly $76 million never arrived, including the majority of malaria medications. Additional shipments worth $63 million did arrive but were delayed on average by 41 days, long enough for clinics to run out of stock. Many supplies sat idle in warehouses instead of moving to hospitals and clinics.In the Democratic Republic of Congo, where malaria is a leading cause of child mortality, the disruption proved deadly. Five-year-old Suza Kenyaba fell ill with a high fever from malaria while the medication she needed sat in a warehouse just seven miles from her clinic. She died less than a week after her symptoms began. “The medication that USAID sent was seven miles away due to Trump chaos and suspensions,” said Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.). “It would have saved her life. Shame. This is not leadership. This is callous arrogance.” The Post also documented the case of seven-year-old Gilbert Kayombo, an HIV-positive child in Kolwezi who ran out of antiretroviral medicine when shipments were delayed. Gilbert died in March, just four miles from a warehouse that held his medication. In Suza’s province, malaria deaths nearly tripled in the first half of the year. In Lualaba province, preliminary figures show at least 219 HIV-positive people died between January and June, up from 164 during the same period the previous year. In Haut-Katanga, more than 600 people died from malaria in the first six months of 2025—exceeding all malaria deaths recorded there in 2024.Oxfam America called on Congress to restore aid, saying, “The Trump administration’s claim that no one has died from cuts to USAID is devastatingly and disastrously untrue. Their attacks on USAID stranded lifesaving medication and children died waiting.” But Rubio has denied any link between aid cuts and deaths. On ABC News, he said, “No one has died because the United States has cut aid.” He has argued that programs are being restructured for efficiency, insisting in February that “we’re not walking away from foreign aid. We are walking away from foreign aid that’s dumb, that’s stupid, that wastes American taxpayer money.”The suspension, however, triggered cascading operational failures. Chemonics, the contractor that runs the supply chain, lost access to government payment systems, leaving it unable to order suppliers back to work. The company furloughed 750 U.S. workers and laid off local staff. It warned in court filings that the payment freeze “directly inhibits our ability to order suppliers to resume work.”Meanwhile, warehouses filled with unused medicine. In Haut-Katanga, about 249,000 vials of Artesunate—the gold-standard treatment for severe malaria—sat idle. Provincial health chief Janvier Kubuya pressed for action in an April 24 letter: “Some supplies run the risk of expiring. It goes without saying that needs are increasingly growing, shortages have been observed.”
CDC announces changes to COVID, childhood vaccines, touting 'informed consent' -Today the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it is now applying individual-based decision-making to COVID-19 vaccination instead of making routine recommendations on use.The CDC also recommended that toddlers receive the varicella (chickenpox) vaccine as a standalone immunization rather than in combination with measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination."Informed consent is back," said Acting Director of the CDC and Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Jim O’Neill in an HHS press release. "CDC's 2022 blanket recommendation for perpetual COVID-19 boosters deterred health care providers from talking about the risks and benefits of vaccination for the individual patient or parent. That changes today." Now, all Americans are tasked with consulting with their healthcare providers to decide if they should get a seasonal COVID-19 booster.The changes follow recommendations made by the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) last month, and are meant to place "shared clinical decision making" at the forefront of vaccine administration.On X, former director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Demetre Daskalakis, MD, MPH, said the announcement was misleading.All vaccines come with shared deciding making between patients and clinicians, he said. But under the new CDC recommendation, "Vaccinators may require proof of a discussion with a clinical before vaccination. In many states that means getting a prescription with a diagnosis code before a vaccine will be administered. This means that pharmacists, in some states, aren't given the authority to share in decision making."Daskalakis added, "All vaccination involves discussion. The acting director is showing his lack of experience in the clinical or policy space and is purposefully trying to say, 'finally clinicians have to talk to their patients.' "The recommendation for standalone varicella vaccination comes after ACIP was presented evidence by the CDC Immunization Safety Office showing that 12- to 23-month-old toddlers had an increased risk of febrile seizure 7 to 10 days after vaccination for the combined measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella vaccine compared to those given immunization for chickenpox separately.According to the HHS, the combination vaccine doubles the risk of febrile seizures without conferring additional protection from varicella.The combined vaccine was licensed in 2005 to promote increased vaccine uptake, but currently only15% of US parents choose it for children ages 12 to 15 months."I commend the doctors and public health experts of ACIP for educating Americans about important vaccine safety signals," O'Neill said. "I also thank President Trump for his leadership in making sure we protect children from unintended side effects during routine immunization."
Past surgeons general warn HHS Secretary Kennedy must go --Today the six surgeons general appointed since George H. W. Bush was president penned an opinion piece in theWashington Post calling for the removal of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.“We are compelled to speak with one voice to say that the actions of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are endangering the health of the nation,” they wrote. “Never before have we issued a joint public warning like this. But the profound, immediate and unprecedented threat that Kennedy’s policies and positions pose to the nation’s health cannot be ignored.”The op-ed by Jerome Adams, MD, Richard Carmona, MD, MPH, Joycelyn Elders, MD, Vivek Murthy, MD, Antonia Novello, MD, MPH, and David Satcher, MD, PhD, said Kennedy has created a crisis in the nation’s public health system and health agencies, which is resulting in mass resignations, short staffing, a resurgence of infectious diseases, and worsening chronic illnesses.As HHS secretary, Kennedy has a $2 trillion budget and helms Medicare, Medicaid, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Food and Drug Administration, the National Institutes of Health, and other agencies that each American uses, the doctors wrote.The opinion piece warns that under Kennedy more childhood vaccines will be in jeopardy, including newborn hepatitis B, which was the subject of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)September meeting.Moreover, they said the three measles deaths the country experienced this year as part of a wider outbreak were preventable. They also said Kennedy has repeated conspiracy theories that contributed to the targeting of the very staff he is charged with protecting in the wake of the attack on the CDC in August.“Secretary Kennedy is entitled to his views. But he is not entitled to put people’s health at risk. He has rejected science, misled the public and compromised the health of Americans,” the opinion piece said.
As winter months approach, LIHEAP low income heating program still non-functional after entire staff laid off - With the winter months approaching in the United States, millions of low-income households are in danger of being unable to pay for heating. In April, President Donald Trump fired all federal employees managing the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) energy assistance program. The program dispenses $4.1 billion annually in grant money to all 50 states. LIHEAP was created by Congress in 1981. It helps older adults, families with small children, people with disabilities and other vulnerable households to afford their home energy bills. It keeps the heat on in the winter and cooling on in the summer for 6.2 million families each year. Without this assistance, struggling families would be unable to afford utilities, threatening countless lives. Driven substantially by greater temperature extremes due to climate change, the rate of freezing deaths in America has more than doubled since 1999, from 0.44 per 100,000 to 0.92 per 100,000. The elderly and minorities are disproportionately affected, the former due to the weakening of the body’s ability to regulate temperature and the latter due to a higher rate of homes with substandard insulation and heating. More than 19,000 Americans have frozen to death since 1979. In addition, more than 400 die every year and 14,000 hospitalized due to unintentional, non-fire-related exposure to carbon monoxide. Many of these cases are due to running portable heaters and other desperate measures taken to keep warm without adequate utilities. The LIHEAP program was never fully funded. Each fall, people would have to hurry to submit their applications to ensure some assistance before the funds ran out. Even those who received payments would often run out before the end of winter. Trump has now further cut this program. There is around $378 million remaining in unreleased LIHEAP funds to distribute to states. Typically, these reserved funds are used for “energy emergencies,” usually for severe weather events such as hurricanes and tornadoes. But this money has been effectively “frozen” by Trump’s executive fiat. He has usurped the power of Congress over the budget by firing the entire staff required to dispense them. While Trump’s mass firing of the entire LIHEAP staff threatens to turn off the power for millions of Americans, electricity bills are climbing nationwide, rising faster than inflation in many places, the explosive growth of AI and the massive data centers behind it are driving demand and straining the grid. Some data centers could require more electricity than cities the size of Pittsburgh, Cleveland or New Orleans, and make huge factories look tiny by comparison. There is growing evidence that suggests the electricity bills of some Americans are rising to subsidize the massive energy needs of Big Tech. As a result, many ratepayers have found that their electricity bills are rising at an alarming pace. Many people have lowered their energy usage, but their bills continue to rise. But the companies behind the data centers, tech giants like Amazon and Meta, are frequently able to score reduced rates with local governments and utilities companies.
White House Will Use Tariffs To Fund Low-Income Food Aid Program During Shutdown - So far, no mass firings. The sky is intact. Cats are not sleeping with dogs. And low-income food aid isn't at risk, after the White House found funding to keep the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (also known as WIC) afloat using tariff revenues "for the foreseeable future," a White House official tells Axios. The program — which provides vouchers for healthy food, breastfeeding assistance and nutritional education — was in danger of running out of funding within weeks amid the government shutdown. The tariff money infusion was described as a temporary fix by a White House official, who said that the Office of Management and Budget had worked to find a "creative solution" to preserve WIC. In 2024, the federal government spent over $7 billion to fund the program, which benefits over 6 million people in the United States. "President Trump and the White House have identified a creative solution to transfer resources from Section 232 tariff revenue to this critical program," White House spox Karoline Leavitt told the outlet. "The Trump White House will not allow impoverished mothers and their babies to go hungry because of the Democrats' political games."
Trump plans to deny Social Security disability payments to hundreds of thousands of workers - The Trump administration is using the government shutdown not only to fire hundreds of thousands of federal workers and shut down entire departments but also to accelerate its plans to gut longstanding entitlement programs, including Social Security and Medicare. According to an article published by the Washington Post on Sunday, the Trump administration is planning to make it more difficult for older workers to qualify for Social Security disability payments, which currently provide monthly subsistence checks to 15 million Americans. The Post reports that this “is part of an overhaul of the federal safety net for poor, older and disabled people that could result in hundreds of thousands of people losing benefits, according to people familiar with the plans.” The Social Security Administration (SSA) presently uses age, work experience and education levels to determine whether a person can do other types of work before approving disability payments. If an applicant is over 50, they have a better chance of qualifying for benefits—although only 42 percent of applicants are ultimately deemed eligible under the SSA’s grueling application process, which can take years. Even this is too high for the corporate and financial oligarchy, which regards older and disabled workers who no longer produce profit as expendable. According to the Post, “officials are considering eliminating age as a factor entirely or raising the threshold to age 60,” while also “modernizing” labor-market data used to judge whether claimants can work by replacing an outdated jobs database. It is noteworthy that the Post itself admits the administration’s plan to delete “obsolete occupations” from that database followed a 2022 investigation by the Bezos-owned newspaper, which claimed that thousands of applicants were qualifying based on jobs that no longer existed. The $11 billion disability program is separate from Social Security’s retirement system. But tightening restrictions is part of a long-term drive to lower Social Security payments overall and eventually privatize what was once considered the untouchable “third rail of American politics.” Earlier this year, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the creation of individual investment accounts—so-called “Trump Accounts”—as a “back door for privatizing Social Security.” Monthly disability checks barely keep recipients out of abject poverty. According to state SSA data, denials have risen 3 percent in the current fiscal year. The two programs at issue are Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI), which pays an average of $1,538 per month to workers injured or disabled before retirement age, and Supplemental Security Income (SSI), which provides about $800 per month to poor elderly and disabled people with little or no work history. In a paper cited by the Post, Jack Smalligan, senior policy fellow at the Urban Institute and former official at the Office of Management and Budget, wrote that if the proposed rule reduced eligibility by 10 percent, 750,000 fewer people would receive benefits over the next decade, while 80,000 widows and children would lose assistance tied to a spouse or parent. If the rule removes age as a factor, more older disabled workers will be forced to apply for early Social Security retirement benefits, permanently reducing their monthly income. Those claiming retirement at 62 instead of the full retirement age of 66 years and 10 months receive 30 percent less in benefits for the rest of their lives. At the same time, the Post reports, “Social Security is working on plans to rescind a Biden-era rule that expanded SSI eligibility for recipients who live with relatives or roommates receiving help from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or other public assistance.” Restoring stricter standards could roll back payments for about 400,000 Americans, cutting some benefits by a third or more. Such reductions will have deadly consequences. A 2022 peer-reviewed study by Alexander Gelber, Timothy Moore, Zhuan Pei and Alexander Strand for the National Bureau of Economic Research found that disability cash benefits lower mortality, yielding measurable gains in life expectancy, particularly for lower income recipients. This is especially true for SSI, which in most states confers immediate Medicaid eligibility, providing crucial access to healthcare. Most SSDI beneficiaries, by contrast, must wait 24 months for Medicare, and mortality is notably higher during this waiting period than after coverage begins.
DOE cancels $7.6B in clean energy awards in states that voted against Trump - The U.S. Department of Energy on Thursday announced it has terminated $7.56 billion in financial awards to 223 clean energy projects — all in states that voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.“Following a thorough, individualized financial review, DOE determined that these projects did not adequately advance the nation’s energy needs, were not economically viable, and would not provide a positive return on investment of taxpayer dollars,” the agency said in a statement. A list of impacted projects was not immediately available. DOE said award recipients have 30 days to appeal a termination decision and “some of the projects included in this announcement have already begun that process.”In total, DOE said it terminated 321 financial awards issued by the Offices of Clean Energy Demonstrations, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Grid Deployment, Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains, Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy and Fossil Energy.Energy Secretary Chris Wright said DOE has been working to review “billions of dollars in financial awards, many rushed through in the final months of the Biden administration with inadequate documentation by any reasonable business standard.”Of the financial awards terminated, DOE said 26% were awarded between Election Day and Inauguration Day. “Those awards alone were valued at over $3.1 billion,” the agency said.Russ Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget, said in a post on X that the terminated projects were in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington.“Nearly $8 billion in Green New Scam funding to fuel the Left's climate agenda is being cancelled,” Vought wrote. Democratic lawmakers and consumer advocates said DOE’s funding cancellation is illegal, and an example of a presidential administration executing a political vendetta that will hurt all Americans.
Is that legal? Trump’s $8B cuts in the crosshairs. - Energy Secretary Chris Wright is defending the Trump administration’s decision to cancel billions of dollars for climate-related projects — mostly in blue states so far — despite state officials and legal experts insisting the move runs afoul of the law. Wright said during an interview on CNN on Thursday that his agency made the ultimate decision to cut the funding after a monthslong review of about 2,400 projects by a small group of seven or eight DOE officials who focused on “business conditions.” The secretary also said more cuts, including in red states, are on the horizon.The cuts were first revealed when White House budget director Russ Vought announced on X that the administration was axing nearly $8 billion in “Green New Scam funding,” and listed 16 states that did not vote for President Donald Trump in the presidential election, including California and New York. But Wright said DOE made the call to cancel the funds and defended the decision when asked about criticism that the U.S. government is backtracking on legally binding contracts tied to bipartisan spending. The secretary also asserted that a number of the projects failed to meet critical milestones, went bankrupt or were late in delivering paperwork. The majority of projects reviewed, he said, have continued to be funded. “All of them have cancellation clauses, if they’re not in the interest of the taxpayers, if they’re not a good expenditure of the money, you always have the ability to cancel these projects,” said Wright. “There is a long list of problems with projects that get canceled.” Wright refuted that the move was political or tied to the shutdown when asked about projects like hydrogen hubs seeing funding cut in blue states. “As this fall goes on, you’ll see cancellations in red and blue states,” he said. Funding for the canceled “projects will not be restored” after the shutdown ends, he said. But David Super, a professor at the Georgetown University Law Center, said the move indeed violates the Impoundment Control Act and flies in the face of legal precedent, even if DOE opts to cancel funds in red states. “This is unlawful,” said Super. Super pointed to the Supreme Court’s unanimous decision in the1975 case of Train v. City of New York, which held that the president must distribute appropriations enacted by Congress. “Nothing in the statutes appropriating those funds makes having a Republican governor a condition of participation,” said Super. “In addition, the Supreme Court has held that the federal government may not interfere in the internal structures of state governments without express, unambiguous statutory authority.” Super added that a 1991 decision — Gregory v. Ashcroft — confirmed that whom a state chooses as its governor is certainly an aspect of its internal structure. Critics of the cuts could also make the argument in court that the cancellations constitute a breach of contract or — if the administration doesn’t properly explain its reasoning — a violation of federal law governing administrative procedure, said Dan Farber, a law professor at the University of California, Berkeley. A judge could also find that the Trump administration canceled the funds as a form of illegal political retribution, Farber said. “Hard to prove,” he said, “although sometimes Trump provides ammunition himself.”
BLM cancels largest solar project in North America - The Trump administration’s cancellation of what would have been one of the world’s largest solar power projects has some industry observers fretting over the future of renewable energy on public lands.They predicted the Esmeralda 7 project — by far the largest solar project that had moved through the permitting process under former President Joe Biden’s Interior Department — won’t be the last major project in the pipeline to be pulled. It was one of a number of Nevada desert solar projects that had been steadily advancing through regulatory review by the Biden administration. Scott Sklar, sustainable energy director at George Washington University’s Environment & Energy Management Institute, said the Trump administration had set up a “multitude of regulatory barriers and delays.” These delays, he added, have placed financial strain on the renewable energy companies with projects waiting for review and could lead to others walking away from pending projects. “The administration wants to stop these projects, period, so there is no chance for approval,” he said. “As the Trump administration continues to take actions hostile to renewable energy projects, that may not be the last solar project on federal land to cancel,” he said.The Bureau of Land Management on Thursday updated its planning website for the Esmeralda 7 project to note that the environmental review of the project was “cancelled.”The decision to cancel the programmatic environmental impact statement was described by a federal government official with knowledge of the situation, who was granted anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly, as a mutual decision by BLM and the handful of companies that had proposed the seven individual solar power projects that would have comprised Esmeralda 7.The Interior Department in a statement Friday afternoon said that the solar developers and BLM had “agreed to change their approach for the Esmeralda 7 Solar Project in Nevada. Instead of pursuing a programmatic level environmental analysis, the applicants will now have the option to submit individual project proposals to the BLM to more effectively analyze potential impacts.”Representatives with the energy companies involved in developing the seven individual solar power plants that collectively comprised the Esmeralda 7 project did not respond to requests for comment.The Trump administration has made its skepticism of the solar build-out in Nevada clear in recent months, with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and other officials saying solar is an “intermittent” technology that doesn’t provide reliable energy. But some conservationists alarmed by the proposed rollout of large solar projects in Nevada and other Western states celebrated the demise of Esmeralda 7, saying as designed it took up up far too much land. “Friends of Nevada Wilderness is thrilled that this poorly sited project is dead,” said Shaaron Netherton, the group’s executive director. “In the push to get this particular project through, the BLM ignored the importance of this region’s cultural significance, biological significance and the fact that it is one of the most intact landscapes remaining in Nevada,” Netherton added.
Trump’s budget ax hits pediatric hospital’s microgrid plan - Nestled in one of the nation’s most polluted counties in California’s San Joaquin Valley, the administrators of Valley Children’s Healthcare hospital view its solar microgrid and backup power project as a health innovation. In 2022, hospital leadership launched an ambitious plan to build a microgrid on its campus in Madera, north of Fresno. With a new fleet of solar panels, batteries and fuel cells, the hospital would be able to continue operating during a blackout or a wildfire, plus reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the hospital by more than 50 percent. That effort, however, took a hit last week when the Department of Energy canceled a $30 million grant to project developer Faraday Microgrid (formerly called Charge Bliss) that would have supported a set of long-duration batteries that could have powered the hospital for days on end. The grant was one of more than 300 financial awards yanked by the Trump administration last week, affecting mostly blue states. A list circulating in Washington policy circles identifies another roughly 300 grants that could be cut. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said some of the projects failed to meet critical milestones. And the Trump administration has defended the cuts as a way to rein in Biden-era spending. But before DOE had provided any details, the White House also put a political sheen on the grant cancellations. Last Wednesday, on the same day the ongoing U.S. government shutdown started, White House Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought announced on X that the administration was axing nearly $8 billion in “Green New Scam funding.” Vought listed 16 states that did not vote for President Donald Trump in the presidential election, including California. Valley Children’s CEO Todd Suntrapak said the “disappointing” decision instead creates a roadblock to a much-needed project that aims to keep the lights on and medical devices running as Western power grids are increasingly taxed. The first phase of the battery project is expected to come online this year.“This project is about reducing what we consider to be too great a risk to rely solely on the commercial grid for power,” said Suntrapak. “The microgrid and batteries will support every power outlet in the building, which is very valuable given that we are entrusted with children’s lives every day.” Suntrapak said the hospital has experienced power interruptions “from time to time,” although it has not had a long-running blackout. Still, Suntrapak said the hospital is not willing to risk an outage, with California experiencing more wildfires and electricity demand growing rapidly. The 2020 Creek Fire in California, for example, burned nearly 350,000 acres in the Central Valley, where the hospital is located.The federal grant through DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations was a key tool to advance the second phase of the project. It involved installing storage batteries that could keep the power on during a long outage. The grant was part of a $325 million outlay under the Biden administration, part of an overall effort aimed at cutting the cost of long-duration batteries by 90 percent by 2030.Other projects under the long-duration storage program — including tests for iron-air batteries and the use of recycled electric vehicle batteries to support the grid — are all poised to lose funding.
Direct air capture takes ‘huge hit’ in DOE funding cuts -The Trump administration has canceled awards for nearly half of the 21 federally supported megaprojects that seek to pull carbon dioxide from the atmosphere — a major setback for a direct air capture industry that rode a wave of bipartisan support during the Biden era.Ten direct air capture hub projects collectively lost nearly $47.4 million, according to an analysis by POLITICO’s E&E News. The projects — seven of which were intended for Democratic-led states — were included on a spreadsheet of canceled awards that the Department of Energy provided to lawmakers Thursday. The agency is terminating more than $7.5 billion in funding for energy projects amid a congressional funding standoff that has led to a government shutdown.Although the direct air capture funding cuts are relatively small, they’re likely to doom the projects and have an out-sized impact on the industry, according to Erin Burns, the executive director of the climate advocacy group Carbon180. “This is a huge hit to not just these projects but to direct air capture” as an emerging industry, she said in an interview. The move also “really undermines the advantage that the United States has with this energy innovation ecosystem.”
Trump Eyes New Round of Clean Energy Cuts Worth Billions --The U.S. government is considering canceling or rescinding billions of dollars in previously awarded funding for clean-energy and carbon management projects in a continued effort to alter the trajectory of climate investment.According to a list obtained by Reuters, the Department of Energy (DOE) is reviewing awards across a wide array of sectors, from auto manufacturing to direct air capture hubs. Among the proposed cancellations are two major direct air capture (DAC) hub awards given during the Biden administration, including one involving oil company Occidental.Other high-profile projects under threat include:
- A $500 million grant to General Motors to convert its Lansing Grand River plant in Michigan for EV production.
- $335 million for Stellantis to convert the shuttered Belvidere, Illinois plant to build mid-size electric trucks.
- $250 million for Stellantis to repurpose its Indiana Transmission plant to produce EV components.
- Smaller awards such as $32 million to Hyundai Mobis (for plug-in hybrid components), $89 million to Harley-Davidson (EV motorcycles), $80 million to Blue Bird (electric school buses), and $75 million to Cummins (zero-emission powertrains).
- $208 million for the Volvo Group to upgrade EV production capacity in plants across Maryland, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
Last week, the DOE moved to cancel another $7.56 billion across 321 financial awards in 223 clean-energy projects, citing concerns that many do not offer sufficient returns to taxpayers or align with national energy priorities.There was a strong alignment between the projects that were targeted last week and states governed by Democrats or that voted Democratic in recent elections. White House budget director Russ Vought flagged that the climate-related funding would be terminated in 16 Democrat-led states, including California and New York.Critics argue these moves reflect political motivations, rather than purely economic judgments. “This is yet another blow by the Trump administration against innovative technology, jobs and the clean energy needed to meet skyrocketing demand,” said Jackie Wong of the Natural Resources Defense Council.This wave of rescissions builds on even earlier efforts by this administration. In May 2025, the DOE cancelled 24 clean energy projects totaling over $3.7 billion, focused heavily on carbon capture, industrial decarbonization, and hydrogen infrastructure.Among those earlier cuts were $331 million for a carbon-reduction olefins project at Exxon’s Baytown, $500 million to Heidelberg Materials in Louisiana, and $375 million to Eastman Chemical in Texas. DOE maintains that these decisions are driven by a new internal policy launched in May 2025. The policy, “Ensuring Responsibility for Financial Assistance”, requires case-by-case reviews, additional documentation from awardees, and stricter economic viability standards.The optics of cutting direct air capture and carbon capture projects may create tension with the fossil fuel sector’s interest in carbon reinjection and enhanced oil recovery. DAC projects, in particular, have found support from oil and gas companies, because captured CO? can be channeled into existing fields.
EPA faulted for slighting ‘Cancer Alley’ risks - EPA significantly underestimates the long-term cancer hazard posed by formaldehyde and a slew of other hazardous air pollutants in a hotbed of U.S. petrochemical production, researchers conclude in a new study.The study, published online Monday and led by scientists at John Hopkins University and the University of Arizona, tapped mobile air monitoring to track pollutant concentrations at various spots along the Louisiana industrial corridor often dubbed “Cancer Alley.”For all but one of 15 census tracts, the authors found that the estimated lifetime cancer risk for local residents was higher than EPA’s figures. While the median difference was about five times greater, it ranged up to more than 11 times as much. “This cancer risk is unacceptably high, especially for an area with high social and economic vulnerabilities,“ the authors wrote.
Senate panel sets vote on pipeline safety bill - The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee will vote this week on bipartisan legislation to reauthorize the nation’s pipeline safety regulator. The panel will consider the yet-to-be-released bill, the “PIPELINE Safety Act of 2025,” from Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and ranking member Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.).The legislation is the first effort from the committee to reauthorize the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration’s safety programs since 2020.“Pipelines are the safest and most effective way to transport massive quantities of American oil and natural gas,” Cruz said in May. “As we look to craft legislation reauthorizing PHMSA, we need to ensure unnecessary regulations are not impeding America’s energy dominance.”
Over 40 Trump administration appointees have direct ties to oil, gas, coal sectors: Report US President Donald Trump appointed dozens of officials with ties to the fossil fuel industry to his administration, including more than 40 from oil, gas, or coal companies, according to a recent report. An Oct. 6 Public Citizen and the Revolving Door Project report examined the backgrounds of nominees and appointees to the White House and eight key agencies overseeing energy, environment, and climate policy. The agencies include the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as the Interior and Energy departments, Britain’s The Guardian reported on Wednesday. The report identified 111 "fossil fuel insiders and renewable energy opponents," including 43 who worked directly for coal, oil, or gas companies, such as Energy Secretary Chris Wright, former CEO of the fracking company Liberty Energy. It also named lesser-known officials, including a former fracking executive now heading the Energy Department’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, who reportedly told staff to avoid terms like "climate change" and "emissions." A senior White House policy adviser also previously held senior positions at major oil companies, including Shell. Trump has repeatedly called climate change a "hoax," and since taking office has moved to remove official climate change data from government websites, worked to eliminate any mention of it in government documents, and sought to zero out any public funding for research into the climate crisis. Researchers found 12 officials linked to fossil fuel-funded right-wing think tanks, such as the Texas Public Policy Foundation and Americans for Prosperity, an anti-environmental group founded by Charles and David Koch, the brothers who founded Koch Industries, the second-largest privately held company in the US. (David Koch died in 2019.) Another 29 were former executives from polluting industries tied to fossil fuels, including chemicals, automaking, and mining, while others had links to utility companies or politicians promoting pro-coal, oil, and gas policies. The Interior Department emerged as the most compromised agency, with 32 employees linked to polluting energy. It includes Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, a former North Dakota governor with longstanding oil industry ties who leases land to Continental Resources, led by major Trump donor Harold Hamm. On his first day in office, using the slogan "Drill baby drill," Trump announced plans to boost domestic fossil fuel production and withdraw from the Paris Agreement, later rolling back and canceling funding for renewable energy incentives – even projects nearing completion – and expanding drilling and mining on federal lands.
Inside Trump’s foray into mineral ownership - The Trump administration this week took partial ownership of a third critical minerals company, part of an unusual trend that’s generating buzz about future deals and possible risks for taxpayers and the environment. The U.S. government now holds equity stakes in companies with mineral operations or plans in Nevada, California and Alaska as it moves to secure supply chains that China currently dominates and throttles through export restrictions or by driving down prices to squeeze out competition. “It’s very rare for western governments to do this in modern times. It’s more of a China and Russia play [to] take stakes in mineral mining companies through state-owned enterprises,” said Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “Traditionally, the U.S. would create incentives to spur the private sector to take on the investment and development burden. “But with critical minerals, it’s an uneven playing field,” he added. On Monday, President Donald Trump announced from the Oval Office that the Department of Defense was taking a 10 percent equity stake in Trilogy Metals, a Vancouver-based company that has mining claims in an isolated part of northwestern Alaska. Under the deal, the government is also investing $35.6 million to support Trilogy’s exploration and has warrants to purchase an additional 7.5 percent of the company. A week earlier, the Department of Energy took a 5 percent equity stake in another Canadian company, Lithium Americas, which is developing a massive lithium mine and processing plant in Nevada with a multibillion-dollar federal loan. Before that, the DOD became the biggest stakeholder in MP Materials, a Las Vegas-based company operating the nation’s only rare earths mine in California. Trump officials say they’re focus is on national security and jump-starting a domestic mining and processing sector to pump out critical minerals and reduce U.S. reliance on China. At the same time, Trump has hammered out mineral-linked deals in Greenland, Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of the Congo while his administration has set aside billions for mining projects, fast-tracked permits for U.S. projects, opened up more public lands for mining activity and boosted stockpiling of minerals. “President Trump pledged to upend the status quo policymaking that has clearly left glaring holes in America’s national and economic security,” said White House spokesperson Kush Desai. “The Administration is committed to using every lever of executive power to deliver on this pledge.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the stakes will ensure the U.S. can enter into and compete in markets dominated by foreign adversaries and emphasized that not all stakes will be permanent. “By maintaining equity ownership in critical mineral projects, the administration is making better deals for the American taxpayer and ensuring these projects reach completion,” said Ben Dietderich, a spokesperson for the DOE. Officials from the Department of Defense did not respond to a request for comment by press time. Academic experts and analysts say the administration’s approach marks a sharp departure from business-as-usual. The federal government has traditionally relied on grants, loans and tax incentives to stimulate private investment while maintaining distance from ownership, said Stephen Empedocles, CEO at the advisory firm Clark Street Associates. “This model signals a change in U.S. industrial policy — one that treats the federal government less as a grantmaker and more as a strategic investor,” said Empedocles. “It sets a precedent for similar approaches in semiconductors and other critical supply chains.” Speculation is soaring around what deals could be next. A White House official said the administration is in ”constant touch” with the private sector and “receives hundreds of deal proposals involving equity stakes.” But they also pushed back on reports that the White House is considering taking a stake in a company developing a rare earths mine in Greenland.
Donald Trump’s Worst Idea - by Tyler Cowen - Is President Donald Trump a socialist in disguise? Trump made his name in the private sector as a dealmaker, and so my worry has long been that he will try to make too many deals, specifically here at home with American companies. Sure enough, that’s exactly what he has been doing, effectively turning major U.S. businesses into arms of the government. My first big wave of anxiety came in August, when Trump announced that the federal government would be taking 10 percent of Intel, the microchip company, in return for a previously approved subsidy. Needless to say, this was done without any congressional stamp of approval. Viewed as a stand-alone incident, the Intel deal could be dismissed as unimportant. There are state-owned or partially state-owned companies around the world, after all, and some are more efficient than others. Unfortunately, this is not a one-off. The federal government also decided to take a 15 percent share in MP Materials, a company that mines rare-earth minerals that are essential for everything from smartphones to guided missiles. You might think that is essential for America’s national security, because China has such a large presence in that sector and the military applications of these rare-earth minerals are many. Just last week, however, the Trump administration announced it would be taking a 5 percent stake in two different lithium mining ventures. The good news is that major lithium deposits are being discovered around the world, making this kind of U.S. government involvement unnecessary for national security reasons. The bad news is that our government still is treating this as a national emergency. The word socialism is overused in political debate, but during his 10 months in office, Trump has certainly put us on the path toward it. The Trump administration has also offered Nvidia the right to sell high-quality artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China, previously denied under law because the U.S. generally isn’t interested in helping Chinese AI get better. In exchange, the U.S. government would get a cut of those transactions to the tune of about 15 percent. In that case, it is not obvious the deal will hold up in the courts because it may violate the Export Clause of the U.S. Constitution. Of course, it does not end there. Once deals like this are being made and the safeguards protecting private business from government control are done away with, we can only expect more of them. Last week, the Trump administration announced an arrangement in which Pfizer would cut pharmaceutical prices in return for some tariff relief. Reuters has reported that the Trump administration is now planning various kinds of deals with up to 30 industries. To make sure the new deals stick, there is a plan in the works to formalize them and make it so this is how the U.S. government deals with businesses going forward. To that end, the Trump administration wishes to greatly expand the financing and authority of what was previously a minor institution, namely the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). The DFC was created in 2018 to help finance projects in developing nations. But under the proposed expansion, it would establish an equity fund to cement federal government ownership of key parts of American industry. This means that our federal government would move away from its longstanding and beneficial stance of letting private ownership stay private. The word socialism is overused in political debate, but during his 10 months in office, Trump has certainly put us on the path toward it. And in case you’re wondering, this is a bad thing: American business has been world-beating for a long time now, in large part because we avoid these sorts of public-private arrangements, which are common in faltering European economies. A dose of government ownership and the associated politicization are not what American industry and innovation need.
James Comey trial set for Jan. 5 on charges Trump sought - Former FBI Director James Comey pleaded not guilty on Wednesday morning to federal criminal charges that President Donald Trump had sought. Judge Michael Nachmanoff set Comey's trial to begin on Jan. 5 in U.S. District Court in Alexandria, Virginia. Comey's lawyer, Patrick Fitzgerald, and prosecutors said they expect that trial to last only two to three days. Fitzgerald told Nachmanoff that he will soon file legal papers requesting that the case be tossed on the grounds of vindictive and selective prosecution, according to NBC News. Comey is accused of making a false statement and obstruction of a congressional proceeding during testimony to a Senate committee in 2020. Comey, who was fired as FBI director by Trump in 2017, is accused of lying during testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Sept. 30, 2020. That day, Comey denied authorizing someone else at the FBI to be an anonymous source in news reports about a probe of Hillary Clinton and her emails when she was the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee. Two federal prosecutors from North Carolina have been assigned to handle Comey's case, which is seen as a sign that Lindsey Halligan, the interim U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, had difficulty getting prosecutors in her own office to work on the case. Halligan was put in that job by Trump shortly after her predecessor, Erik Siebert, resigned under pressure from Trump following Siebert's reported reluctance to seek a grand jury indictment of Comey. On Wednesday, Fitzgerald told Nachmanoff that Halligan's appointment was "unlawful," according to NBC. Fitzgerald also said he will soon file motions in court addressing what he called "abuse" of the grand jury that Halligan personally asked to indict Comey, and "outrageous government conduct." Nachmanoff and Fitzgerald pushed back against a prosecutor's assertion that the case was complex and would involve a large amount of classified information and documents. "We view this as a simple case," Fitzgerald said. Nachmanoff said, "This does not appear to me to be an overly complicated case." He warned the prosecutors that he would "not slow this case down because the government does not promptly turn everything over," referring to the requirement that the prosecution turn over evidence related to the case to Comey's defense team before trial. Squabbles over the pace and amount of information exchanged in that process, known as "discovery," often bog down criminal cases. "The government is going to be under an enormous amount of pressure to figure out what actions need to be done here," Nachmanoff said.
Trump accidentally posted message to Bondi on prosecuting Comey, adversaries: Reports --A message President Trump posted on Truth Social in September pressing Attorney General Pam Bondi to prosecute several political opponents was intended to be a direct message, reports say. The Wall Street Journal reported multiple officials said Trump believed he had sent the message to Bondi privately. NBC also confirmed the message’s private intent with a former Trump administration official. Both outlets report Trump was surprised to discover the message had been publicly posted on his Truth Social account, with the president trying to shrug it off. The Wall Street Journal reported Bondi grew upset after seeing the message and called Trump and White House aides, leading him to post a second message on the social media platform praising Bondi. His initial Sept. 20 message pushing Bondi to prosecute his political rivals led to concerns over Trump’s desire to use the Justice Department to target his opponents. In his message, he addressed Bondi as “Pam” and criticized the lack of action against former FBI Director James Comey, New York Attorney General Letitia James (D), and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) “We can’t delay any longer, it’s killing our reputation and credibility,” Trump wrote. “They impeached me twice, and indicted me (5 times!), OVER NOTHING. JUSTICE MUST BE SERVED, NOW!!!” Since he posted the message, the Justice Department has brought charges against both Comey and James. Comey faces counts on allegedly making false statements to Congress and obstructing a congressional hearing over testimony he made in Congress in 2020. He pleaded not guilty to both charges on Wednesday. James was indicted Thursday in federal court in Virginia on counts of bank fraud and false statements to a financial institution stemming from mortgage fraud accusations. In a statement, she criticized the president’s “desperate weaponization of our justice system” and maintained her innocence. “These charges are baseless, and the president’s own public statements make clear that his only goal is political retribution at any cost,” she said.
"Did We Raid Biden's Home?" - Eric Trump Unloads On Chris Cuomo In On-Air Clash - Chris Cuomo has an uncomfortable moment on-air as he sets Eric Trump OFF into a rage over his comments about Trump going after his political opponents. As VigilantFox posted on X, this did not sit well with Eric, who blew up on Cuomo for nearly 3 minutes straight. CUOMO: “Do you think that it is fair to say it looks like the administration is going after its political opponents now and doing exactly what you say you oppose?” TRUMP: “What, Comey?… It certainly seemed like he lied to me. I’m also wondering what an FBI director is doing taking memos from the FBI and leaking them to The New York Times.” That’s when Trump got personal, accusing Cuomo of playing coy even though his own family had also faced political lawfare. Cuomo pushed back, insisting he wasn’t being coy… before accusing the Trump administration of going “right after Biden.” Eric Trump then rattled off a series of examples to prove that his father is the victim, not the aggressor, in what can only be described as a mic-drop moment: “Did we raid Biden’s home?” “Did we try and bankrupt Biden?” “Did we weaponize every AG and DA against Biden?” “Did we do that against Hunter Biden, who had a laptop from hell, pictures of cocaine, illicit drug use, prostitution?” “Did we make up a dirty dossier about Biden?” “Did they try and destroy Biden’s marriage?” “Did we make up stories that Biden had secret servers in the basement of his home communicating with the Kremlin in Russia?” “Did we strip Biden off the ballot of multiple states?” “Did we take Biden off of Twitter and Instagram and Facebook and try and silence his voice so he couldn’t communicate?” “Did we put Biden in a courtroom every single day, 91 felony counts that have all been overturned for my father now for nonsense, to try and keep him off of a campaign trail and to try and destroy his life. " "DID WE DO ANY OF THAT?” Watch the full tirade below:
Grand Jury Indicts NY AG Letitia James On Criminal Bank Fraud, CNN Reports -US Attorney Lindsey Halligan presented the case to the grand jury on Thursday, according to sources, one month after she was installed in her role. CNN: We have just learned that Letitia James has just been indicted by the DOJ pic.twitter.com/8oTmU1vAVm As noted in August, a criminal referral was filed against James, alleging that she had "falsified records" to get home loans for a Virginia property that she claimed was her "principal residence" in 2023 - while she was serving as a New York state prosecutor.Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director William Pulte sent the missive to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Deputy AG Todd Blanche, claiming that in late August 2023 - weeks before she launched her civil fraud trial against the Trump Organization for inflating the values of its properties.In 2021, James also purchased a 5-family Brooklyn property, but has "consistently misrepresented the same property as only having four units in both building permit applications and numerous mortgage documents and applications," the letter noted.Loans secured for this property could have reduced her mortgage interest rate by as much as 1% - leaving James with lower monthly payments under the federal Home Assistance Modification Program (HAMP) since it was listed as containing just four units, according to Pulte.
Zionist Bari Weiss tapped to head CBS News following merger -- Multiple reports indicate that, after months of closed-door negotiations and Wall Street maneuvering, the newly merged Paramount Skydance, will install Bari Weiss, 41, as its editor-in-chief of CBS News. Weiss is the founder of the right-wing outlet The Free Press. The August 2025 merger of Paramount Global and Skydance Media was engineered by Larry Ellison, the second-wealthiest person in the world and founder of Oracle, along with his son David Ellison and former Paramount chair Shari Redstone. The merger unites broadcast, film, television and digital platforms under one of the most politically right-wing conglomerates in the world. The Ellisons and Redstone are both major contributors to the Republican Party and pro-Israel organizations.Following the roughly $8 billion deal in August, David Ellison became the new chairman and CEO of Paramount Skydance. The new monopoly controls not only CBS News, but also Paramount Pictures, Nickelodeon, MTV and Showtime/Paramount+. The merger comes alongside Oracle’s central role in acquiring TikTok’s US data operations and the long campaign by Redstone, an ardent supporter of Israel and its ongoing genocide, to bring CBS and its subsidiaries into ideological conformity with the pro-Israel line of American imperialism.In a comment to the Hollywood Reporter, the billionaire Redstone said she thought Weiss would be a “good voice” that would “bring a different perspective.”The “shake-up” at CBS, as the corporate press calls it, is not a creative realignment aimed at providing viewers objective reality-based news, but part of a systematic concentration of information power among a tiny layer of the ultra-wealthy.As part of the deal to bring Weiss onto CBS, the Hollywood Reporter reported that Weiss’ The Free Press will be purchased for approximately $150 million, although it is unclear how much of that will be in the form of stock options. Even with generous funding from the rich, including millions from Trump’s “crypto czar” David Sacks and billionaire Marc Andreessen, The Free Press is not a popular website in the US or internationally. The paid membership site has fewer than 1 million subscribers, while The Free Press YouTube channel has fewer than 350,000 subscribers.
Supreme Court won’t revive Louis Farrakhan defamation suit against Jewish groups The Supreme Court on Monday declined to consider reviving Nation of Islam leader Louis Farrakhan’s defamation lawsuit against prominent Jewish organizations that called him antisemitic. Lower courts threw out the suit against the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and Los Angeles-based Simon Wiesenthal Center (SWC), concluding that the allegations of antisemitism were protected opinion based on direct quotes by Farrakhan. Some of Farrakhan’s remarks referenced by the ADL in 2023 compared Jews to “Satan” and suggested that “Jewish influence” resulted in institutional “pedophilia and sexual perversion” in Hollywood,” according to court filings. The group’s CEO, Jonathan Greenblatt, called him “one of the most notorious antisemites in the country.” The SWC published a 2023 article condemning Farrakhan’s “anti-Semitic and anti-Judaic diatribes” at an annual Nation of Islam conference. In his application to the justices, Farrakhan said the terms “anti-Semite” and “antisemitic” have in modern times been used to exact “social, reputational, political, and economic punishment” on those falsely labeled as such, as he claims he was. “In circumstances where they are applied legitimately, particularly because of threats of harm and physical violence against Jewish people and synagogues, it is acceptable,” he contended. “When, however, they are applied falsely and result in injury to the accused, it should be redressable.” He accused the ADL specifically of seeking to “abridge, if not utterly destroy,” his ability to exercise his First Amendment rights.
Supreme Court won’t consider Meta’s liability for radicalization of Charlston church shooter -The Supreme Court said Monday it won’t consider whether Meta should be held liable for contributing to the radicalization of Dylann Roof, the self-proclaimed white nationalist mass shooter. In doing so, the justices are refusing to wade into the latest fight over Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, which gives tech firms broad immunity from legal challenges over user-generated content. The appeal to the high court came from the daughter of Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal (AME) Church senior pastor Clementa Pinckney, who was one of nine people killed by Roof in 2015. Pinckney’s widow, Jennifer Pinckney, brought the suit on her daughter’s behalf. They were at the church during the shooting and hid in Pinckney’s office as it took place. The lawsuit contends that Facebook, which is owned by Meta, determines what its users privately see on an individual basis, pointing to whistleblower reports. The platform purposefully feeds “more extreme” content and group recommendations to people who will be the most affected; who are inclined to keep seeking that content out; and who are likely to be radicalized, it says. “Neither Section 230’s text nor its history suggests that Meta should be immune to suit for its own choices to manipulate users by recommending the most damaging content possible,” the surviving Pinckneys’ lawyers wrote in their petition to the justices. “And neither Section 230’s text nor its history provides immunity for suggesting that a person join a group of white supremacists. “But the Fourth Circuit’s ruling, following on its own seminal atextual precedent on this provision, immunizes both,” they continued.
Supreme Court rejects Laura Loomer's lawsuit against Meta, X - The Supreme Court on Monday declined to revive right-wing activist Laura Loomer’s racketeering lawsuit against Meta and Twitter, now known as X, alleging they conspired to suppress conservative political speech. Loomer said the social media behemoths specifically targeted her 2020 and 2022 congressional campaigns in Florida, utilizing “government pressure, corporate collusion and biased content moderation” to stifle her ability to fundraise and connect with voters. A federal judge threw out the lawsuit in 2023, finding that Loomer’s claims against Meta and X Corp. were barred because prior lawsuits addressed the same facts and they were shielded from liability for content moderation decisions under Section 230. The judge also ruled that Loomer’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act claim failed, holding that her allegations amounted to lawful business conduct. In March, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit affirmed the dismissal, focusing primarily on Loomer’s failure to plead a RICO enterprise. In her petition to the high court, Loomer argued that the appeals court erred. “These issues are of paramount national importance, as they implicate the fairness of federal elections and the integrity of public discourse in the digital age,” her lawyer, John Pierce, wrote to the justices. “The Court’s review will provide critical clarity on these legal questions, ensure accountability for platforms and their collaborators, and safeguard democratic processes.” Meta, X Corp. and the consumer goods corporation Procter & Gamble, another named defendant, waived their right to respond to Loomer’s petition.
Gov. Newsom signs legislation to prohibit use of algorithms to artificially raise prices on essentials - Yesterday, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed new legislation, AB 325 (Agular-Curry), to ban algorithmic price fixing. The new law prohibits corporations from using algorithms and digital tools to manipulate the prices on essentials such as rent and groceries.Advocates of the law called AB 325 “groundbreaking” and said it’s a “critical step in addressing California’s affordability crisis by cracking down on tech-enabled price manipulation.”“Californians are fed up with corporations using secret algorithms to jack up prices on everything from rent to groceries, from hotel rooms to french fries,” Teri Olle, Director of Economic Security California Action (ESCAA) and a co-sponsor of the bill, said. “Whether it’s RealPage’s software allegedly costing renters an additional $3.8 billion in 2023 alone, or potato companies and meatpackers using shared data to coordinate price increases, these digital price collusion schemes are making life unaffordable for working families across our state.”RealPage, a property management software, is one example of a company using pricing algorithms that drove rent up in many cities across the U.S. by enabling landlords to “collude in price-fixing schemes” Rent increased up to 20 percent in the San Francisco Bay Area, ESCAA reported.The legislation makes it illegal for companies to use “software to engage in the same price-fixing schemes” and puts in place antitrust protections for the digital and AI era throughout California.“The principle driving AB 325 is simple: if it’s illegal in a back room, it’s illegal on a laptop. This new law will directly confront the tech-powered price crisis by holding accountable both the developers who create price-fixing algorithms and the companies that knowingly use them,” Olle said. “It’s about restoring real competition to our markets and ensuring technology delivers prosperity for all, rather than padding corporate executives’ pockets.”
California governor candidate Katie Porter cuts off interview after testy Trump exchange - California gubernatorial candidate and former Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) tried to end an interview with a reporter after she was asked what she would say to voters in the state who voted for President Trump. “What do you say to the 40 percent of California voters, who you’ll need in order to win, who voted for Trump?” CBS News correspondent Julie Watts asked Porter in a sit-down interviewthat aired Tuesday and quickly went viral. “How would I need them in order to win, ma’am?” Porter responded. When asked whether she thinks she will win the other 60 percent of California voters, Porter responds “In a general election? Yes. If it is me versus a Republican, I think I will win the people who did not vote for Trump.” Watts then asks Porter what she thinks would happen if it was her versus another Democrat, to which Porter said, “I don’t intend that to be the case.” Porter argued she has already built support in terms of name recognition. Porter then appeared to become irritated when Watts pressed her, saying the interview was becoming “unnecessarily argumentative.” Watts said CBS News has asked the other reporters in the race the same question. “I don’t want to keep doing this. I’m gonna call it. Thank you,” Porter says, looking off camera. “You’re not going to do the interview with us?” Watts asked. “Nope, not like this I’m not. Not with seven follow-ups to every question you ask,” she said, adding that she didn’t care that the other candidates had been asked the same question. Watts and Porter continued to go back and forth on whether Porter would answer the reporter’s questions and follow-ups. “I don’t want to have an unhappy experience with you, and I don’t want this all on camera,” Porter said. The testy exchange comes as Porter leads the race for governor in the Golden State. According to a poll from the University of California, Berkeley released in late August, Porter led the crowded field of Democrats with 17 percent support. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco came in with 10 percent support, while Democratic former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra received 9 percent.Nine other candidates earned 6 percent or less. In California’s nonpartisan system, the top two candidates move on from the primary to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. However, 38 percent of voters remain undecided in the race, more than twice the share that picked Porter.
Top US court rejects appeal from Epstein accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell The US Supreme Court has rejected Ghislaine Maxwell’s bid to overturn her conviction for helping Jeffrey Epstein procure minors for his pedophile network. She is currently serving a 20-year prison term for multiple offenses, including the sex trafficking of a child. Earlier this year, the case spurred controversy after the administration of US President Donald Trump backpedaled on promises to release Epstein’s alleged ‘client list’, claiming the late sex offender never had one. On Monday, justices turned away Maxwell’s appeal. Her legal team argued she was shielded under a plea deal federal prosecutors struck with Epstein in 2007 that protected his “co-conspirators” from criminal charges in return for his cooperation. According to US Solicitor General Dean John Sauer, the clause is “highly unusual” and cannot be compared to other non-prosecution agreements (NPAs).“The case-specific interpretation of a particular NPA is not a matter that warrants this Court’s review,” he said in a response to the petition. Maxwell agreed to be interviewed about the Epstein case by Deputy US Attorney General Todd Blanche in July, reportedly receiving limited immunity to answer questions without risk of new criminal charges. During the interviews, she denied that Epstein kept a ‘client list’ of people he had trafficked women and girls to. The DOJ and the FBI earlier this year said they found “no credible evidence” that Epstein maintained such a list, after months of promises to release the full files. The announcement ignited backlash even among staunch Trump supporters, who felt betrayed due to the president’s pre-election promise to make the document public. Democrats release redacted Epstein records mentioning Elon Musk READ MORE: Democrats release redacted Epstein records mentioning Elon Musk In late September, Democratic members of the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability published a redacted batch of the Epstein files, alleging links between the sex trafficker and figures including Elon Musk, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon, and investor Peter Thiel. In response, Republicans have accused their opponents of “intentionally withholding documents that contain names of Democrat officials.” Epstein died in pre-trial detention in August 2019. His death was ruled a suicide.
Trump on pardon for Ghislaine Maxwell: ‘I’d have to take a look at it’ - President Trump said Monday he would have to talk to the Department of Justice (DOJ) and review the case of Ghislaine Maxwell, the former associate of disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, after the Supreme Court declined to review her 2021 sex-trafficking conviction.Trump was asked in the Oval Office whether he was considering a pardon for Maxwell, and he repeatedly declined to rule out a pardon, instead stressing that he would need to look into the matter. “You know, I haven’t heard the name in so long. I can say this, that I’d have to take a look at it. I would have to take a look. Did they reject that?” Trump said during an exchange with CNN’s Kaitlan Collins.“Well, I’ll take a look at it. I’ll speak to the DOJ,” Trump said. “I wouldn’t consider it or not consider — I don’t know anything about it. I will speak to the DOJ.” Asked why she might deserve clemency, Trump responded that “a lot of people have asked me for pardons,” including Sean “Diddy” Combs, who was sentenced last week to four years in prison. “But she was convicted of child sex trafficking,” Collins said.“Yeah, I mean, I’m going to have to take a look at it,” Trump replied. “I’d have to ask DOJ. I didn’t know they rejected it. I didn’t know she was even asking for it, frankly.”Maxwell is serving a 20-year prison sentence after she was found guilty of conspiring with and aiding Epstein in his sexual abuse of underage girls.Maxwell met with a top Justice Department official over the summer amid bipartisan pressure on the Trump administration to release new information about the Epstein case. She was moved to a minimum-security prison for women soon after the meeting. Trump, whose own relationship with Epstein has come under scrutiny in recent months, has at times expressed frustration with the focus on the case.Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) and House Republican leaders have refused requests from Democrats to swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.), who was elected last month to fill her father’s House seat. The move deprives a petition of the last signature it needs to force a vote on a bill to release files related to Epstein, a push that Republican leaders and Trump oppose.
Greene says she’s felt more pressure on Epstein petition than any other issue - Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) said Tuesday that she has faced more pressure over a petition to trigger a House vote compelling the release of files linked to Jeffrey Epstein than any other issue. “My signature is on that discharge petition, and there has not been another issue where I have ever received more pressure than that one, and I’m pretty much shocked by it. I can’t imagine — I’ve never understood how this is an issue,” Greene told NewsNation’s Blake Burman on “The Hill.” “I think when it comes to women being raped, especially when they were 14 years old, that’s pretty black and white,” she added. The Georgia representative is one of only four Republican House members to sign a discharge petition that would force a vote on the full release of the Epstein case files. Greene continues to be a staunch backer of the president, but she has repeatedly broken with her party during his second term, on both the Epstein files and foreign policy issues. She has previously stated getting “a lot” of pushback from the White House over supporting a discharge petition. In recent months, the Trump administration has faced intense backlash over its handling of files linked to Epstein from both sides of the aisle. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Tuesday his delay in swearing in Democratic Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (Ariz.) was not linked to her upcoming signature on the discharge petition. “It has nothing to do with that at all. We will swear her in when everybody gets back,” Johnson said at a press conference. When asked about the timing of Grijalva’s swearing in, Johnson said: “We’ll schedule it, I guess, whenever she wants. It has nothing to do with it.” “The people of Southern Arizona deserve representation and I’m ready to get to work,” Grijalva wrote Monday in a social media post. “Swear me in NOW @SpeakerJohnson!” President Trump said Monday he would need to talk to the Department of Justice and look over the case of Ghislaine Maxwell, a longtime associate of Epstein, in the wake of the Supreme Court declining to review her sex trafficking conviction from 2021.
Pam Bondi stonewalls question about Trump mentions in Epstein files --Attorney General Pam Bondi on Tuesday stonewalled a question at a Senate Judiciary Committee about who ordered FBI agents to flag any documents that mentioned President Donald Trump during a review this year of investigative files about the late sex predator Jeffrey Epstein.Sen. Dick Durbin, in a letter in July, mentioned that purported order to FBI agents as he asked the Justice Department about past promises to release the Epstein files and a subsequent decision by Bondi not to do so."So, who gave the order to flag records related to President Trump?" Durbin, D-Ill., asked Bondi at Tuesday's Judiciary Committee hearing."To flag records which included his name?" Durbin asked.Boni bristled as she answered, "I'm not going to discuss anything about that with you, senator."Durbin replied, "Eventually you're going to have to answer for your conduct in this, you won't do it today, but eventually you will."Durbin, in his letter to the Justice Department, said that in March, hundreds of personnel in the New York field office of the FBI were assigned to review files related to Epstein.In that letter, Durbin cited a quote by Trump in 2002 about Epstein, which was published in New York magazine."Mr. Trump said of Mr. Epstein, 'I've known Jeff for 15 years. Terrific guy, He's a lot of fun to be with. It is even said that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are on the younger side,' " Durbin wrote.
Epstein records requested from Jamie Dimon, bank CEOs -- A top House Democrat asked four major bank CEOs to share a slew of financial records related to Jeffrey Epstein, pushing forward an investigation into the notorious sex predator, after the lawmaker's effort to subpoena the banks for the documents was blocked by Republicans.House Judiciary Committee ranking member Jamie Raskin, D-Md., in letters to the CEOs obtained by CNBC, asked how Epstein and his co-conspirators could have conducted a reported $1.5 billion in suspicious transactions "for years without ever being caught."The letters were sent on Wednesday to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Bank of America chief Brian Moynihan, Deutsche Bankleader Christian Sewing and Bank of New York Mellon CEO Robin Vince. Download Raskin's letters to Dimon, Moynihan, Sewing and Vince.The letters came as the Trump administration continues to face pressure — from Democrats and from some of President Donald Trump's Republican supporters — over its handling of matters related to Epstein.The wealthy financier and sex offender, who was once a friend of Trump's, died by suicide while in jail facing federal child sex trafficking charges in 2019. In his letters, Raskin bluntly asked each CEO if their bank will "help reveal the truth" about Epstein and his co-conspirators, or if they would "choose to be part of the cover-up for this massive, international sex trafficking ring that victimized more than 1,000 women and girls?"Deutsche Bank, in a statement to CNBC, said that it "takes its legal obligations seriously, including appropriately responding to authorized investigations and proceedings." The statement did not explicitly commit to complying with Raskin's requests."The bank regrets our historical connection with Jeffrey Epstein," Deutsche Bank said. "We have cooperated with regulatory and law enforcement agencies regarding their investigations and have been transparent in addressing deficiencies and investing in strengthening our control environment in parallel."JPMorgan declined to comment on Raskin's request.The congressman, in his letter to Dimon, emphasized that the CEO recently said, referring to Epstein, that he and JPMorgan "regret any association with that man at all."Raskin also noted that Dimon had committed to providing information to the Judiciary Committee.But Dimon had specified that he would comply with a subpoena, saying, "If it's a legal requirement, we would conform to it. We have no issue with that."JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have both paid substantial sums to settle lawsuits accusing them of facilitating and financially benefiting from sex trafficking by their client, Epstein. In 2023, JPMorgan agreed to pay $290 million to settle a class-action lawsuit on behalf of Epstein victims and reached a $75 million settlement in a separate case brought by the U.S. Virgin Islands.The same year, Deutsche Bank agreed to pay $75 million to Epstein victims to settle a suit.Bank of America and BNY Mellon did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment on Raskin's letters to their CEOs.Raskin wrote that he was sending the letters after Republicans, who hold a majority on the Judiciary panel voted against Democratic members'attempt to issue subpoenas to the four bank CEOs last month.The subpoena effort fell in a nearly party-line vote. Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky was the only Republican to vote in favor of the subpoenas.The request for subpoenas came at the end of a hearing with FBI Director Kash Patel, whom Democrats grilled about the Trump administration's handling of the so-called Epstein files.Raskin, in his letters, asserted that Patel's testimony showed that his FBI "has failed to 'follow the money'" regarding suspicious transactions related to Epstein that the banks had reported to the Treasury Department. Raskin's letters focused on records known as Suspicious Activity Reports, SARs, which banks are required to file when they notice certain unusual financial activities that may be connected to illegal conduct. The lawmaker accused each of the four banks of either ignoring or failing to adequately report red flags about Epstein's financial transfers.Deutsche Bank, for instance, "witnessed but failed to report a stream of red flags relating to Mr. Epstein, including his attorneys sending millions of dollars to women with Eastern European surnames," Raskin told Sewing. JPMorgan "did not file a single SAR" until after Epstein's death, "despite the flagrant nature" of his activities, Raskin wrote to Dimon. Bank of America appears to have filed just two "significantly delayed" SARs about "$170 million in transactions between Mr. Epstein and billionaire investor Leon Black," the lawmaker told Moynihan.BNY Mellon reportedly filed SARs linked to $378 million in Epstein-related payments only "years after Mr. Epstein's death," Raskin wrote to Vince.Raskin's letters cited findings from an investigation being led by Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden, D-Ore., who says that bank records held by the Treasury Department show Epstein-related transactions totaling at least $1.5 billion.
Exclusive: Regulators move to ease banks' SAR burden — New guidance obtained by American Banker would reduce the number of suspicious activity reports, or SARs, banks are required to file, a move aimed at easing banks' compliance burden and making data more useful for law enforcement.
- Key insight: Bank regulators, led by Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, issued a guidance document clarifying requirements around suspicious activity reports, or SARs.
- What's at stake: Banks spend considerable time and money on anti-money laundering compliance, and the guidance is meant to reduce that burden.
- Forward look: Treasury Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence John Hurley said the guidance will help focus SAR reports to provide law enforcement with greater value.
A new interagency guidance clarifies when banks must report suspicious activity, easing compliance workloads and narrowing the reporting requirements to focus on higher-value cases.
OpenAI inks AMD deal -- OpenAI has signed a deal with chipmaker AMD to obtain six gigawatts’ worth of the company’s AI chips, just weeks after unveiling a similar agreement with Nvidia. The ChatGPT maker will have the option to take up to 160 million shares, or a stake of about 10 percent, in AMD as part of the agreement announced Monday. “This partnership brings the best of AMD and OpenAI together to create a true win-win enabling the world’s most ambitious AI buildout and advancing the entire AI ecosystem,” AMD Chair and CEO Lisa Su said in a statement. The first gigawatt of AMD chips, its Instinct MI450 graphics processing units, are set to be deployed in the second half of 2026, according to a press release.OpenAI will receive its first tranche of shares once this initial step is completed. Additional shares will become available to the AI company as it continues to purchase AMD chips, while more shares are tied to AMD’s share price and other milestones. “This partnership is a major step in building the compute capacity needed to realize AI’s full potential,” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a statement.“AMD’s leadership in high-performance chips will enable us to accelerate progress and bring the benefits of advanced AI to everyone faster.” Just two weeks earlier, OpenAI announced a partnership with Nvidia to deploy at least 10 gigawatts of its systems, equivalent to about 4 million to 5 million chips, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC. The chipmaker, in turn, is investing $100 billion in OpenAI. The series of deals comes as AI companies search out vast amounts of additional computing power in order to develop, train and use their models. OpenAI executives said last month that they see a need for at least 20 gigawatts of computing power to meet demand, The Wall Street Journal reported.
US foreign adversaries use ChatGPT with other AI models in cyber operations: Report -Malicious actors from U.S. foreign adversaries used ChatGPT jointly with other AI models to conduct various cyber operations, according to a new OpenAI report. Users linked to China and Russia relied on OpenAI’s technology in conjunction with other models, such as China’s DeepSeek, to conduct phishing campaigns and covert influence operations, the report found. A cluster of ChatGPT accounts that showed signs consistent with Chinese government intelligence efforts used the AI model to generate content for phishing campaigns in multiple languages, in addition to developing tools and malware. This group also looked at using DeepSeek to automate this process, such as analyzing online content to generate a list of email targets and produce content that would likely appeal to them. President Trump announces major breakthrough in the Middle East OpenAI banned the accounts but noted it could not confirm whether they ultimately used automation with other AI models. Another cluster of accounts based in Russia used ChatGPT to develop scripts, SEO-optimized descriptions and hashtags, translations and prompts for generating news-style videos with other AI models. The activity appears to be part of a Russian influence operation that OpenAI previously identified, which posted AI-generated content across websites and social media platforms, the report noted. Its latest content criticized France and the U.S. for their role in Africa while praising Russia. The accounts, now banned by OpenAI, also produced content critical of Ukraine and its supporters. However, the ChatGPT maker found that these efforts gained little traction. OpenAI separately noted in the report that it banned several accounts seemingly linked to the Chinese government that sought to use ChatGPT to develop proposals for large-scale monitoring, such as tracking social media or movements. “While these uses appear to have been individual rather than institutional, they provide a rare snapshot into the broader world of authoritarian abuses of AI,” the company wrote.
The perils of letting AI plan your next trip - An imagined town in Peru, an Eiffel tower in Beijing: travellers are increasingly using tools like ChatGPT for itinerary ideas – and being sent to destinations that don't exist.Miguel Angel Gongora Meza, founder and director of Evolution Treks Peru, was in a rural Peruvian town preparing for a trek through the Andes when he overheard a curious conversation. Two unaccompanied tourists were chatting amicably about their plans to hike alone in the mountains to the "Sacred Canyon of Humantay". "They [showed] me the screenshot, confidently written and full of vivid adjectives, [but] it was not true. There is no Sacred Canyon of Humantay!" said Gongora Meza. "The name is a combination of two places that have no relation to the description. The tourist paid nearly $160 (£118) in order to get to a rural road in the environs of Mollepata without a guide or [a destination]."What's more, Gongora Meza insisted that this seemingly innocent mistake could have cost these travellers their lives. "This sort of misinformation is perilous in Peru," he explained. "The elevation, the climatic changes and accessibility [of the] paths have to be planned. When you [use] a program [like ChatGPT], which combines pictures and names to create a fantasy, then you can find yourself at an altitude of 4,000m without oxygen and [phone] signal."In just a few years, artificial intelligence (AI) tools like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot and Google Gemini have gone from a mere novelty to an integral part of trip planning for millions of people. According to one survey, 30% of international travellers are now using generative AI tools and dedicated travel AI sites such as Wonderplan andLayla to help organise their trips.While these programs can offer valuable travel tips when they're working properly, they can also lead people into some frustrating or even dangerous situations when they're not. This is a lesson some travellers are learning when they arrive at their would-be destination, only to find they've been fed incorrect information or steered to a place that only exists in the hard-wired imagination of a robot.Dana Yao and her husband recently experienced this first-hand. The couple used ChatGPT to plan a romantic hike to the top of Mount Misen on the Japanese island of Itsukushima earlier this year. After exploring the town of Miyajima with no issues, they set off at 15:00 to hike to the montain's summit in time for sunset, exactly as ChatGPT had instructed them. “ That's when the problem showed up," said Yao, a creator who runs a blog about traveling in Japan, "[when] we were ready to descend [the mountain via] the ropeway station. ChatGPT said the last ropeway down was at 17:30, but in reality, the ropeway had already closed. So, we were stuck at the mountain top." A 2024 BBC article reported that Layla briefly told users that there was an Eiffel Tower in Beijing and suggested a marathon route across northern Italy to a British traveller that was entirely unfeasible. According to a 2024 survey, 37% of those surveyed who used AI to help plan their travels reported that it could not provide enough information, while around 33% said their AI-generated recommendations included false information. These issues stem from how AI generates its answers. According to Rayid Ghani, a distinguished professor in machine learning at Carnegie Melon University, while programs like ChatGPT may seem to be giving you rational, useful advice, the way it gets this information means you can never be completely sure whether it's telling you the truth. "It doesn't know the difference between travel advice, directions or recipes," Ghani said. "It just knows words. So, it keeps spitting out words that make whatever it's telling you sound realistic, and that's where lot of the underlying issues come from."
Could AI's Growing Thirst For Water Usher In Localized Resource Wars In the era of artificial intelligence, water availability is poised to become a top concern for developers, just as low-cost, reliable electricity and grid connection delays have become significant issues. These data centers consume massive quantities of water daily to cool next-generation AI servers that, with each new chatbot iteration, demand increasing amounts of power. This rising energy demand has rendered open-air cooling systems obsolete, pushing liquid cooling technologies to the forefront.We first identified the stunning water consumption problem of data centers at the start of the year, as well as penned a note over the summer about a "chilling opportunity" in data center liquid cooling after UBS forecasted that thermal loads could exceed 200kW to 1,000 kW per rack by the end of the decade. This means air cooling is quickly becoming obsolete as new chatbots demand higher compute power, and therefore more advanced AI chips, driving higher demand for liquid cooling technologies.The pace of data center development is accelerating, as we previously pointed out in our discussion of the "circular economy" of AI, calling it, quite aptly, a stunning "circle jerk"... that has ushered in an unprecedented era of Big Tech CapEx to build out AI infrastructure. Notably, data centers are surpassing office construction spending and are coming under increased scrutiny for their impact on power grids and rising electricity costs.Now that the backdrop has been explained, and data center buildouts are set to continue for years to come, ZeroHedge readers have already been well-informed about the urgent need for power grid upgrades. The other critical resource needed to keep these data centers running is the availability of fresh water for cooling.Already, many data center developers tend to choose sites with low energy costs, even in drought-prone regions,intensifying stress on local water tables. Stanford hydrologist Newsha Ajami told The New York Times that "water is an afterthought" for Big Tech firms building out data centers, which rely on local governments to solve shortages later.As we mentioned earlier, every new iteration of a chatbot involves the need for more and more compute, that forces data centers to source the latest and greatest AI chips, in turn, means server racks demand higher and higher power consumption, with air cool technoligies no longer able to do the job, liquid cooling is in high demand and will be well into the 2030s. This growing demand for water has already strained local water tables across various communities nationwide, like in Texas, Arizona, and Colorado. The NYT noted that data center expansion has been linked to localized droughts and new battles over water rights. NYT interviewed Beverly Morris in Newton County, Ga, whose well ran dry after Meta broke ground on a $750 million data center. Morris' home is located about 1,000 feet from the new data center. This leaves us with a Morgan Stanley report that forecasts AI data centers will consume around 1,068 billion liters of water annually by 2028, an 11 times increase from 2024 levels.
“The Next Big Crash Is On Its Way.” -Ian Welsh - Ever since Greenspan took over the Fed and the 87 crash when they figured out their playbook, the US has only had unavoidable stock market crashes. The Fed is always there to juice markets higher and to jump in at the least sign of a normal (pre-Greenspan) market correction. But sometimes the irrational stupidity overwhelms even the Fed, because they are both stupid and ideologically unwilling to ever force a correction. This happened twice: the dot-com boom and crash and the Mortgage backed security boom and crash (if we bundle shitty mortgages based on lies together, they become not shitty, because we’re pretending they aren’t all basically the same thing!). Now we’re going to get the AI Boom crash. I’m well over 90% on this. The AI booms is in the “wildly stupid over-claiming” stage. It’s not that token based AI isn’t a real tech, or that it doesn’t have some uses, but the claims of it completely changing everything (replacing a third of the workforce, acting without human help to run things, being able to cure cancer and make huge theoretical breakthroughs) are obvious over-reaches. So far every academic study that comes in shows that AI isn’t even good at the one thing everyone anecdotally agreed it was good at: writing code. Right now it seems to mainly be a good way to cheat at university, to have a fake relationship, or to bypass Google’s shitty search (which is what I use it for.) It hallucinates, the hallucinations cannot be removed because they are integral to the tech, and the code it produces, even when it works, is a huge mess that will cause massive maintenance issues. In addition:
- Since it doesn’t actually mostly reason, it requires data sets bigger than all the data in the world if it is to keep improving;
- If it uses the data it itself produces, it experiences model collapse.
- None of the American AI companies make money per query. Every query costs more than they can charge.
- It requires a vast build-out of energy and data centers, of the “over a trillion dollars” variety. There literally isn’t enough money to pay for OpenAI and Anthropic’s dreams, and there isn’t a product at the end of it that could pay back all that money.
- About 40% of the US stock market is now based around NVidia and the AI companies.
- NVidia has now invested in Open AI, so that they can turn around and buy more NVidia cards.
- The Chinese offer an open source AI which is almost as good and with costs somewhere between one fifteenth and one-thirtieth as much, so that it might actually be profitable AND since it’s open source, Trump can’t have a mini-stroke and decide to cut you off at his whim.
Throwing all this money at AI if it really was the epochal “tech to end all techs, the singularity, dude” that the tech-bros claim it is might make sense. But I don’t see the evidence that this is the case, and even if it is, why not use the Open Source Chinese variety? In fact, my guess is that this version of AI, based on this model and this generation of chips, is not even as big a deal as the internet was. Everyone was right that the internet was going to be HUGE, they just over-invested before it was and before people knew who the winners (Google, Facebook, Amazon) were going to be. But so far AI doesn’t even look as important as the internet, but the spend is way larger than the internet build-out of the turn of the millennium. But even if AI turns out to be a HUGE deal, it’s going to crash out of this bubble and we’ll find out later who can make money doing what. The Fed will paper the AI market crash over, making hundreds of billions or even a trillion out of thin air to save the rich from their own stupidity and greed. Again. But this will be the LAST crash the Fed will be able to save the capitalists from. The one after will either wipe the capitalists out, wipe out America, or both.
The GENIUS Act is Anything But -This post is meant to piggy-back on Ian’s recent post, “The Next Big Crash Is On Its Way.” There has been little coverage in the legacy media of the GENIUS Act. This recent legislation, passed by both Houses of Congress and signed by President Trump is about “regulating” the crypto-economy. The GENIUS Act is an acronym for “Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins.” Why Congress is so addicted to these stupid acronyms is beyond me. The acronym of this act is also antithetical to what it is. It’s a fools act of financial deregulation, which in my opinion will accelerate and exacerbate the coming financial crisis. But first, the legislative highlights:
- Stablecoins to be pegged 1:1 to the dollar. Tokens must be backed with cash or short-term treasuries. Issuers cannot offer interest. There is a loophole, however, and I will discuss it later.
- Establishing rules for stablecoin issuers to segregate of reserves, undergo monthly audits and establish minimum liquid capital requirements.
- Developing anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist processes.
- Designating which parties are permitted to issue stablecoins.
- Giving the Department of Treasury, Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and FDIC greater regulatory power.
- Classifying stablecoin owners when a custodian or issuer files for bankruptcy.
The main idea behind the act is to make stablecoins a reliable crypto-currency to invest in. So what are some of the potential negative consequences of the act? The Kansas Fed notes, “Funds flowing into stablecoins have to flow out of another source. If stablecoins are purchased out of checking accounts, for example, then these purchases represent a shift of funds from banks (as deposits) to issuers (as stablecoins) . . . . This potential flow of funds from bank deposits into stablecoins could increase Treasury demand but also could reduce the supply of loans in the economy.” In fact, the Treasury warns that $6.6 trillion of assets could be lost by the banks into stablecoins. Stablecoins have the potential to decrease the money supply, create a chilling effect on banks issuing loans, which would drive up interest rates. Moreover, issuers of stablecoins will be able to examine every single purchase you make. As far as I can tell there is no privacy provision in the act, nothing preventing issuers from selling stablecoins owners data. Who is going to regulate Stablecoins? The SEC has no investigative or enforcement budget. The IRS has been effectively neutered. The FDIC will have no role in stablecoins so long as they are not FDIC insured. With no real oversight issuers can simply put any kind of triple-A rated assets to back them—even when the ratings of the triple-A rated assets are fraudulently obtained–like the CDOs that caused the 2008 financial crisis. That’s what Bear Stearns tried to get away with in late July 2007, when two hedge funds filed for bankruptcy. It was always my understanding that these were money market funds. Perhaps the real story has gone down the memory hole. Nonetheless, who is to say stablecoins, without real oversight and constant audits—seriously, as I just said, the regulatory agencies have no enforcement budgets—won’t be backed by treasuries? This is also a serious workaround of the Fed. It will without any doubt reduce its ability to manage interest rates and fight inflation, which is its legal remit, at present. The largest issuer of stablecoins is Tether, having issued $155 billion so far. Tether is registered in El Salvador, has 150 employees and claims to hold the “majority” of its reserves in cash and short-term treasuries. The company has done its best to avoid audits and remains opaque. Morgan Stanley writes that in “2021, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) fined Tether for misleading disclosures on its reserves.” My question to Ether management (and regulators) is what constitutes a majority? 50.1%? 75%? 95%? And what assets are in the minority? Are there derivatives that leverage Tether’s holdings? What kind of leverage? 10:1? More? This question goes right to my next concern.Just who can issue stablecoins? Anyone. Amazon is exploring issuing them. So is Walmart. So are the big banks. Maybe even Palantir? My great fear is that it will allow a complete takeover of our financial system by Big Tech companies. Even the states can issue stablecoins. What’s worse, no amendments were passed to make sure that crypto companies absorb losses, instead of a Federal bailout. When this metastasizes it will make 2008 and 1929 look like picnics. More questions than answers, it seems: “Do we want our payments system managed by Walmart?” asks Barry Eichengreen. I’d also ask if we want Silicon Valley to gain power over our financial system? Do you want Palantir, X, Meta or Google to issue legal tender? As Barry Eichengreen warns, “do we want X to know every detail about our every transaction, which they would if we used their stablecoin, or would we prefer the Fed to be the entity that issues the digital money that we use?” Me? I’m flat out opposed to digital money. I want to continue to use cash for one simple reason: anonymity, which is the same thing as saying, privacy. And about that loophole: while stablecoin issuers cannot offer interest on the tokens, they can issue rewards. Some companies are already giving away annual awards that equal 5.5%. What this means is that the companies issuing rewards are juicing their own returns somehow, and there is no way that the coins are 1:1 100% backed by cash and short-term treasuries. One month treasuries are paying 4.26%. How do you make money paying 5.5% when you’re only getting 4.26%. You see the problem? They absolutely must have other higher interest paying investments in their portfolio. Otherwise they’d go broke. It’s just not possible to sustain. That leads to fraud and fraud is a direct line to corruption. Like this corruption on an epic scale: The Trump family’s investment in World Liberty Financial has increased their wealth by $5 billion.
BankThink As stablecoins proliferate, so will efficiency in the marketplace - Choice is good. It ensures better value for consumers, and it strengthens market efficiency. A multi-stablecoin world brings choice and flexibility to an emerging and potentially vast market, writes Noelle Acheson. The resulting chaos has solutions, and selection will streamline the available options even further. Noelle Acheson argues that broad choice between stablecoins is good for users and for the ecosystem — and any confusion can be smoothed by technical and design solutions.
How Swift's blockchain could boost bank stablecoins --The messaging service is building a network of banks to support the technology that underpins digital currencies. Technology experts say this "single location" concept encourages legacy institutions to adopt digital assets, but it's just one of many options.
- Key Insight: Swift is adding scale to stablecoins and other digital payments.
- What's at Stake: The stablecoin market is growing quickly, adding a need for simpler processing.
- Forward Look: The number of digital asset options means the market will get more complicated.
As stablecoins expand, there's a related trend that includes efforts to link the cryptocurrency to other forms of payments to encourage adoption.
Swift, which oversees an international transaction messaging system, has formed a consortium to build a distributed ledger that will support stablecoins, other forms of cryptocurrency and more traditional transactions.
Banks want OCC to tap brakes on crypto trust charters -As Coinbase joins a wave of crypto companies seeking national trust charters from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, traditional banks are warning regulators not to rush approvals for crypto firms eager to enter the federal banking system. Key insight: Traditional banks are urging the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to take its time in reviewing national trust charter applications from crypto firms like Coinbase, which filed an application Oct. 3.
Gould says debanking crackdown will target big banks - Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould says he wants to crack down on big banks caught cutting ties with controversial, if lawful, individuals and businesses, as required by President Trump's debanking initiative.
- Key Insight: Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould says "debanking" is something that is, in his mind, primarily a problem at the largest banks.
- Expert Quote: "This is not about trying to force banks to engage in activities where they have no competence at all to do so, we're just trying to really be targeted in what we look at, where we think there may have been problems in the past, and try to make sure it doesn't happen again." — Comptroller Gould
- Forward look: Gould says new reputational risk rules and anti-money-laundering simplification are in the works.
Comptroller of the Currency Jonathan Gould said the agency is scouring third-party "complaint data" in an effort to identify and crack down on big banks that denied services to politically controversial clients, saying he is not aware of small banks engaging in so-called "debanking." In the remarks, delivered in a fireside chat held last week before a crowd at the AI‑Native Banking and Fintech Conference in Utah, Gould touched on a number of issues, including tailoring regulations, promoting new technologies at banks and discouraging banks from terminating relationships with controversial clients.
What happens when giving is fuelled by hate? The rise of retributive philanthropy - In 2023 you could donate $25 to name a cockroach after your ex and then have the Toronto Zoo send them a certificate. A group called Sign My Rocket raises support for Ukraine by letting donors request personal messages be written on artillery shells on the front lines. And when GoFundMe shut off the collection and release of donations for the Canadian trucker convoy in 2022, angry supporters ended up increasing their donations through competing platforms. These are all examples of what’s being called retributive philanthropy. New research published in the Journal of Marketing Research this year suggests that this is not outlier behaviour. Expect to see more campaigns that frame giving support through a lens of vindictiveness. While traditional giving is typically fuelled by compassion or gratitude, retributive philanthropy is geared around punishment. Not only do people donate money in order to support a cause, they also do it to inflict discomfort, embarrassment, or outright harm. Now, you too can be a vigilante by weaponizing your wallet through retributive philanthropy. It also gives a new tool to those who’ve long believed that voting with your wallet is worthwhile. Previously this has been primarily associated with removal of support through boycotts. Don’t like that a company or celebrity has aligned themselves with a cause you detest? Stop buying their products.But retributive philanthropy goes a step further. Instead of simply withdrawing support, people channel money in ways that the object of their disdain will hate. As detailed in the study, Planned Parenthood received a larger increase in donations after Donald Trump’s first presidential election win in 2016 compared with other organizations under threat of harm owing to proposed policies at the time. One reason that might explain this is the more than 82,000 people who made donations to the group in vice-president Mike Pence’s name. Mr. Pence received thousands of letters of gratitude on behalf of an organization and cause he was opposed to. This new style of fundraising may increase the number of donors and the size of donations. The study’s authors found three ingredients that play a role in retributive philanthropy. The donors generally believe that the target acted deliberately and maliciously (perceived intentional wrongdoing). Strong moral emotions such as anger, contempt, and disgust drive the donation behaviour more than empathy. And donors have a desire for punishment in that the donation is satisfying because it hurts or humiliates the wrongdoer. It goes beyond symbolism. The punishment needs to feel real. It seems that donors may be more likely to give when they could directly tie the use of their funds to a consequence. In the case of Sign My Rocket, their website shows pictures of artillery with personal messages written in marker from previous donors. Instead of just giving money to a cause where your money is perceived to be thrown into a big pot that has multiple possible uses, being able to see how a donation lands a punch is powerful. Anger can fuel donations. Some causes and many political players have been leaning on this strategy for a while. And if social media clickbait is any template, we see that getting people riled up leads to more views, likes, and shares. Does it lead to better content being shared? Or the increasing polarization of society? When social media algorithms reward creators for being bombastic, guess what? They become more bombastic to keep the attention up. Any new competitors have to out-bombast the incumbents to get their own attention. And perhaps that is fine if outrage can be channelled into support for good causes.But what happens when the very tactics used to raise funds start to mirror the wrongdoing they claim to fight? If anger is the fuel, there will always be the incentive to manufacture more of it.
BankThink: Sanctions on Russia were just a warm-up for a future crisis with China - As the likelihood of conflict in the Taiwan Strait grows, banks ought to be beefing up their sanctions compliance teams to deal with a huge increase in activity. Unfortunately, they are doing exactly the opposite, writes Obsidian Risk Advisors' Brett Erickson. When Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. financial sector found itself at the center of a geopolitical crisis it was never fully equipped to handle. Sanctions designations surged. The Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued thousands of updates in a matter of weeks. Institutions that had long treated sanctions as a static compliance box suddenly found themselves executing foreign policy in real time. As the likelihood of conflict in the Taiwan Strait grows, banks ought to be beefing up their sanctions compliance teams to deal with a huge increase in activity. Unfortunately, they are doing exactly the opposite.
FDIC eyes narrower supervision, dropping 'reputation risk' -- The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. approved proposals Tuesday that would define "unsafe or unsound practices" and ban the use of "reputation risk" in supervisory exams.
Bessent: Bank asset thresholds need a 'substantial increase' — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he supports the idea of changing asset thresholds for banks, arguing that current levels are outdated.
- Key Insight: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent voiced support for raising the asset threshold for banks, noting that current levels may be outdated due to inflation.
- Expert quote: "We want to make sure that you're able to grow without setting off the regulatory tripwires." — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
- What's at stake: Banking trade groups have called for an adjustment to the asset cap for banks, criticizing the thresholds as being behind the times.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Thursday said the bank asset thresholds that trigger enhanced prudential standards like stress testing and additional capital requirements require a recalibration to account for inflation.
$10 million is the magic number for deposit insurance bill — A new bill from Sens. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., and Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md., would raise the deposit insurance limit for some business accounts to $10 million, halving the level of coverage envisioned in prior legislation.
- Key insight: The bill would raise the deposit insurance limit for some business accounts to $10 million, halving the previous $20 million proposal.
- Forward look: The Independent Community Bankers of America support the bill, easing its path to passage.
- What's at stake: The bill would likely compel large banks to pay for the increased deposit insurance premiums the bill would entail Large banks, under this bill, are likely to reap none of the benefits, but end up paying for the proposed changes.
An updated deposit insurance reform bill from Sens. Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., and Angela Alsobrooks, D-Md., would raise deposit insurance for business accounts to $10 million, exclude the largest banks from coverage and insulate community banks from footing the bill.
Banks move quickly to cut deposit costs after Fed rate cut - Many banks lowered the interest rates they pay on certificates of deposits and high-yield savings accounts in September, capitalizing on the Fed's 25-basis-point cut.How much will banks' deposit costs fall, and how fast? That question is likely to be front and center during earnings season, which kicks off on Oct. 14, four weeks after the Federal Reserve resumed interest rate cuts.
- Key insights: Banks are by and large lowering interest rates on deposit accounts.
- Expert quote: "Until loan growth really comes back in a more significant way, what we're hearing from banks is that there's more of a focus on cost and efficiency as opposed to deposit growth," said one observer.
- Forward look: Additional Fed cuts are expected to spur more rate reductions, but there's uncertainty about the size and speed of the coming changes.
Exclusive: Waters presses bank regulators on shutdown relief — House Financial Services Committee ranking member Maxine Waters, D-Calif., is asking regulators if they will give banks supervisory relief to work through missed payments from furloughed federal workers and contractors — relief regulators had offered in similar situations in the recent past.
- Key insight: Bank regulators typically offer supervisory relief for banks so they can offer credit during temporary hardships like shutdowns and natural disasters.
- What's at stake: Thousands of government workers and contractors could go without paychecks depending on how long the shutdown lasts.
- Forward look: It's not clear if the White House will try to withhold backpay from federal workers, affecting those workers' future creditworthiness and banks balance sheets.
Many federal workers find themselves without their usual paycheck after the government shut down last week after Democratic lawmakers balked at a GOP-led continuing resolution that doesn't extend expiring health care subsidies. House Financial Services Committee ranking member Maxine Waters, D-Calif., asked bank regulators to give banks the supervisory clearance to extend lines of credit and modify loan terms for federal employees furloughed after the government shut down last week.
CFPB awarded $111 million from firm that scammed immigrants -- An appeals court upheld a nine-figure default judgment against Nexus Services, Libre by Nexus and three individuals who scammed immigrants held in custody by ICE.
- What's at Stake: A federal appeals court found that Nexus Services and Libre by Nexus violated multiple court orders and failed to produce documents in discovery.
- Key Insight: The defendants allegedly perpetrated a scheme to get non-English-speaking immigrants held in federal detention centers to pay hefty fees for immigration bonds.
- Expert quote: "The case is a cautionary tale of the danger in playing discovery games," said Manny Newburger, with the law firm Barron & Newburger.
A federal appeals court upheld a $366 million default judgment against two Virginia bail bond services companies and their owners for violating multiple court orders. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and three states had alleged that the companies perpetrated a nationwide fraud scheme against immigrants held in custody by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Amid looming layoffs, CFPB is hiring attorney-advisors --The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is hiring attorneys to defend the agency in appellate litigation.
- Key Insight: A higher volume of litigation necessitates the hiring of more defense and appellate counsel.
- What's at Stake: A shortage of attorneys could delay rulemakings and weaken the agency's defense in federal courts.
- Supporting Data: By some estimates, about 500 employees have left the agency since the Trump administration took over and Vought told employees to "stop working and stand down."
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has announced job openings for attorney-advisors to represent the agency in defensive and appellate litigation.
Democrats urge full D.C. Circuit to hear CFPB court case -Democratic lawmakers are asking a federal appeals court to hear a case about the Trump administration's efforts to fire most of the employees at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, arguing his attempt to shutter the agency is unconstitutional.
- What's at Stake: A three-judge panel already ruled in August that the Trump administration can fire up to 1,500 employees of the CFPB.
- Forward Look: Allowing the Trump administration to dismantle the agency would represent "a blatant disregard for Congress's constitutional role," Democrats claim.
- Expert Quote: "Only Congress has the power to shutter the CFPB," Democratic lawmakers state.
Top Democratic lawmakers are asking the full appeals court to hear a case about the Trump administration's efforts to fire employees at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
BankThink Community banks need relief from a suffocating web of regulations -- A former chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. argues that community banking in the U.S. is being slowly strangled by regulations that place heavier burdens on small banks than on giant ones. Former Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chair Sheila Bair argues that community banking in the U.S. is being slowly strangled by regulations that place heavier burdens on small banks than on giant ones. A close friend recently visited her community bank with her son to add him as a signatory to her account. They had to wait about 15 minutes as a bank employee completed the paperwork for a young woman who was opening her first account. My friend listened as the employee ticked through a checklist of intrusive questions about the young woman's personal life, job history and finances. When it was their turn, my friend's son was subject to a similar laundry list of invasive questions even though she and her husband had banked there for over 10 years.
OCC to dramatically reduce community bank regulation - The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency Monday said it will scrap fair housing reporting requirements, fast-track licensing for small banks and simplify regulation for smaller institutions overall.
Exclusive: Trump admin lays off Treasury CDFI staff — The Trump administration is gutting the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund staff as it pursues significant reductions in force on Friday.
- Key insight: Treasury said it will abolish the CDFI Fund in reduction in force notices handed out to employees on Friday.
- Forward look: The CDFI funding that's already been appropriated could be subject to what's called a "pocket recession," a move likely to be legally challenged.
- What's at stake: Millions of dollars for banks and other financial firms that lend to customers across the political spectrum could never reach those customers if the program and its staff are gutted.
The Office of Management and Budget issued reduction in force notices to Treasury staff working in the Community Development Financial Institution office Friday, saying that the layoffs are necessary to "implement the abolishment" of the fund.
Silver lining? Some fraud victims see credit scores rise: Fed --New Federal Reserve research reveals that identity theft victims who use extended fraud alerts often see significant and lasting credit improvements.
- Key insight: Identity theft victims who file extended fraud alerts often experience significant and persistent improvements in their credit profiles, becoming more creditworthy.
- What's at stake: U.S. banks and credit unions that understand the behavior of identity theft victims can land better credit lines.
- Supporting data: Extended alert filers saw their credit scores increase by an average of 11 points, lasting up to five years.
Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review
Penny shortage causes 'chaos' for banks and retailers - Supplies of the one-cent coin have fallen faster than expected, causing headaches for cash businesses and the lenders that provide them with change.
- Key Insight: Due to both production and circulation issues, one-cent coins are suddenly much harder to come by, causing problems for cash businesses and their lenders.
- Supporting Data: Out of 165 coin distribution terminals supplied by the Federal Reserve, 41 have now stopped providing pennies.
- Expert Quote: "This shortage came a lot quicker than any of us had anticipated," said Dylan Jeon, senior director of government relations at the National Retail Federation. "It's an issue that's quickly advancing."
October ICE Mortgage Monitor: "Home Prices Firm" in September, Up 1.2% Year-over-year - Here is the ICE October Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Falling Rates Lead to Best Homebuying Affordability In 2.5 Years Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its October 2025 ICE Mortgage Monitor Report. ICE data reveals that home affordability has reached its best level in 2.5 years, driven by easing mortgage rates. “The recent pullback in rates has created a tailwind for both homebuyers and existing borrowers,” We’re seeing affordability at a 2.5-year high, which is beginning to bolster purchase demand, while creating more opportunities for homeowners to lower their monthly payments with a rate-and-term refinance loan.” Key findings from the October Mortgage Monitor include:
- Affordability reaches best level since early 2023 - With 30-year mortgage rates averaging 6.26% in mid-September, the monthly principal and interest (P&I) payment on an average-priced home has fallen to $2,148, or 30% of the median U.S. household income. Though still more than five percentage points above its long-run average, P&I costs have declined from 32% earlier this summer and significantly improved from their 35% peak in late 2023. …
- Home prices firm as affordability improves and inventory tightens - Annual home price growth rose to +1.2% in September after eight months of slowing, driven by falling inventory and improved affordability. Nationally, listings remain 17–19% below 2017–2019 norms, as sellers in previously oversupplied markets delay sales to avoid price cuts. …
- Borrower profiles reflect improved financial stability -The average credit score for purchase locks has climbed above 736, the highest recorded in the six-year history of ICE’s origination dataset, indicating a shift toward a more credit-qualified borrower mix. …
Here is a graph of the national delinquency rate from ICE. Overall delinquencies increased in August but are below the pre-pandemic levels. Source: ICE McDash
- The national delinquency rate rose by 16 basis points (bps) in August to 3.43% and is up 10 bps from the same time last year, marking a return to annual increases after falling in June and July
- While mortgage delinquencies typically face very little seasonal pressure from July to August, August 2025 ended on a Sunday, which created a bump in delinquencies as processing of last-day payments rolled into September
- The 5% increase in short-term delinquencies was in line with the three most-recent previous Sunday-ending Augusts, which experienced an average increase of 5.3%
- FHA loans continue to see the largest annual increases, with the non-current rate (delinquencies plus foreclosures) rising by 86 bps from the same time last year to 12.0% in August, while the non-current rate among VA (+0 bps), GSE (+4 bps) and portfolio-held mortgages (-3 bps) remained relatively flat
Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 1.2% year-over-year in September, up from 1.0% YoY in August. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by +0.17% in the month, equivalent to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of +2.1%, suggesting the annual home price growth rate may tick modestly higher in coming months. The condo market remains soft, with prices down -1.8% from the same time last year, a modest improvement from -1.9% in August.There is much more in the mortgage monitor.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease --From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey -Mortgage applications decreased 4.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 3, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 8 percent from the previous week and was 18 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent higher than the same week one year ago. “With mortgage rates on fixed-rate loans little changed last week, refinance application activity generally declined, with the exception of a modest increase for FHA refinance applications,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Refinance volume remains somewhat elevated relative to levels of a month ago. Purchase activity declined by about 1 percent for the week but continues to show moderate growth on an annual basis, and stronger growth for FHA loans, favored by first-time homebuyers. Added Fratantoni, “The ARM share increased to 9.5 percent last week from 8.4 percent the prior week. Our survey shows 5/1 ARM rates are averaging almost a percentage point below 30-year fixed rates, and this differential is leading more purchase and refinance applicants to consider ARMs."
Mortgage Rates Start The Week Near Recent Highs --Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days. This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the past 2.5 weeks have been very narrow and today's rates are merely at the upper edge of that range (i.e. not much different than the recent lows).There were no meaningful economic reports driving volatility in the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates), but overseas developments caused broad bond market weakness overnight. Weaker bonds = higher rates, all else equal.More extreme rate movement remains on hold until the government shutdown ends, thus allowing the publication of the big-ticket economic reports that have the biggest impacts on rates. [30 year fixed 6.38%]
Housing October 6th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 0.2% Week-over-week --Altos reports that active single-family inventory increased 0.2% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.The red line is for 2025. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 17.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 18.0%), and down 9.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 9.6%). Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019. Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025. This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of October 3rd, inventory was at 864 thousand (7-day average), compared to 863 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube
There are 72 percent more condo sellers than buyers in the US, Redfin says -If the national housing market is cool, the condo market is ice cold. There were 72 percent more condo sellers than buyers in August, marking the fifth straight month that figure has topped 70 percent, according to a new Redfin analysis.That makes spring and summer 2025 the strongest condo buyers’ market in more than a decade — aside from April 2020, when the pandemic briefly froze home sales nationwide.The mismatch between condo supply and demand is far steeper than in other parts of the market. In August, there were about 30 percent more single-family sellers than buyers, and 38 percent more townhouse sellers than buyers, Redfin found.Like the broader market, condos have been squeezed by high mortgage rates and near-record prices, but they’re also facing unique headwinds.Rising Home Buyers Association (HOA) fees and higher insurance costs have made ownership less affordable, while new regulations in states like Florida and California have added complexity, Redfin noted.Price growth has also stalled, causing more to question whether condos are a smart long-term investment.Condo values are up just 3 percent from spring 2022 to spring 2025, much lower than the inflation rate for that period, and investor purchases of U.S. condos dropped 13 percent year over year in the second quarter, Redfin said.Nationwide, the typical U.S. condo that sold in August took 58 days to go under contract, the longest for that month in 12 years. For sellers, it’s been a headache, but for buyers, it’s meant more bargaining power.“Condo buyers can negotiate prices down and ask sellers for concessions, and they have a lot of options to choose from,” Asad Khan, a senior economist at Redfin, said in the report.Slow condo sales have pushed prices down slightly, but they haven’t plummeted: The typical condo sold for $350,000 in August — down just 1 percent year over year, per Redfin.The pressure on condos is showing up most clearly in Florida, which has an outsized share of the nation’s supply.The state has about 1.5 million condos, roughly a fifth of all the nation’s condos, according to TD Economics.Today, five of the 10 U.S. metro areas with the biggest surplus of condo sellers over buyers are in the Sunshine State, Redfin found. In Miami, there were 11,486 condo sellers and just 3,270 buyers in August. Tampa saw a 240% gap, with 5,183 sellers and 1,519 buyers.“Condo sellers are in a difficult situation,” Cecilia Cordova, a Miami Redfin Premier agent, said in the report. “I’d say we have enough condo inventory for two years’ worth of buyers.”
Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year - Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents.Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.
- Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -0.8% Year-over-year ... The national median rent dipped by 0.4% in September, and now stands at $1,394. This was the second consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’ve now entered the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we’ll continue to see further modest rent declines through the remainder of the year.
- Realtor.com: 25th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents - In August 2025, the U.S. median rent recorded its 25th consecutive year-over-year decline. Rent for 0–2 bedroom properties across the 50 largest metropolitan areas dropped by 2.2% compared to the previous year, with the median asking rent at $1,713—just $5 lower than the prior month.
Consumer Sentiment Cracking Amid Gov't Shutdown; 17% Of Americans Delay Major Purchases, Survey --The government shutdown has entered its eighth day, with Republicans and Democrats still at an impasse over a resolution. Earlier this week, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett warned that the shutdown could cost the U.S. economy $15 billion per week. If it drags on for several more weeks, the economic disruption could become far more widespread.Before consumers make decisions, their sentiment is usually affected. To gauge the current sentiment impact of the shutdown, real estate company Redfin conducted a survey last Friday - just several days into the shutdown - that found 17% of respondents are delaying major purchases, such as a home or vehicle, because of the political turmoil in Washington, D.C.Roughly one in six (17%) Americans are delaying a major purchase like a home or car because of the federal government shutdown, according to a new Redfin survey. Another 7% are canceling plans for a major purchase altogether. The majority of Americans (65%) said the government shutdown has no impact on their purchasing plans.This is according to a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by Ipsos on October 3, 2025. The nationally representative survey was fielded to 1,005 U.S. residents. The combined results have a credibility interval of +/- 3.8 percentage points.The report continued: Some people are canceling or delaying big purchases because they're directly impacted by the government shutdown; i.e. they're a federal government employee or contractor who is not currently getting paid, and they may be worried about getting laid off. But most Americans aren't in that position. People whose incomes aren't directly dependent on the federal government's budget may be rethinking a major purchase because the shutdown is one more in a long line of events making Americans feel unstable about their finances. Adding to the economic gloom of the shutdown, an Axios report on Tuesday, citing a draft White House memo, said the750,000 furloughed federal employees aren't guaranteed compensation for their forced time off. Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather noted: "A government shutdown doesn't just stop paychecks for some federal employees–it shakes the financial confidence of Americans. People across the country are taking in the news and thinking, 'we've faced inflation, tariffs, job losses, a volatile stock market, and now a government shutdown–what's next?' It's understandable that some people are reconsidering buying a home or a car when the economy feels uncertain." Redfin data was not broken down by geographical location, which would have been helpful given that 15.12% of all federal civilian employees, according to OPM, are located in the D.C.–MD–VA–WV metro area.
Surprising Surge: Trucking Spot Market Rates Climb Overnight - There’s something happening here .. What it is ain’t exactly clear That’s the song that’s playing in my head as I try to make sense of what I’m seeing in the freight market. The spot market heat map in SONAR, which tracks sudden shifts in spot market rates, has turned extremely blue, indicating that spot rates are suddenly surging well beyond recent trends. It’s happening all over the country, and it happened overnight. What makes this unusual is that a sharp market development such as the one we’re currently experiencing is happening without tender volumes or rejections indicating market stress.In fact, trucking volumes are anemic, and tender rejections are sitting at 5.5%.As we continued to investigate, our channel checks confirmed what we’ve been talking about for months: the administration’s recent immigration enforcement efforts are starting to have a significant psychological and behavioral impact on immigrant truck drivers and carriers that hire truck drivers with questionable immigration status.In an article in the Serbian Times, an immigration lawyer warned Serbian truck drivers to stay off the roads for fear of being detained or deported, risking a permanent ban. He says, “I advise my clients who drive trucks that even if they have a valid work permit, they should not go on the roads.” The article describes that being deported might not be the worst thing. He goes on to describe dire conditions in immigration holding cells and, because of the significant backlog of cases, that hearings may be postponed indefinitely and bail is unlikely, so they may stay behind bars for a long time. The question on everyone’s mind in trucking is whether this is a temporary blip or the start of a spot market squeeze that could result in much higher rates and a capacity scramble.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined Slightly in September; Up 2% Year-over-year -From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline Slightly in September - Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down slightly in September compared to August. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) declined to 207.0, lower by 0.2% versus August levels but showing an increase of 2% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment caused the index to decrease for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values moved slightly higher in September. The non-adjusted price in September increased just 0.1% compared to August, moving the unadjusted average price higher by 2.1% year over year. The long-term move on average for non-seasonally adjusted values is a decline of 0.3% in the month, demonstrating that the unadjusted depreciation trends in September were less than normally seen. This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions. The Manheim index suggests used car prices were declined slightly in September (seasonally adjusted) and were up 2% YoY.
AAR Rail Traffic in September: Intermodal and Carload Traffic Decreased YoY -- From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center.. The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), combines seasonally adjusted rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. The index fell 0.8% in September 2025 from August 2025, its fifth decline in the past six months. Still, the index is only 1.0% below its level from a year earlier, indicating that recent weakness reflects a gradual adjustment rather than a sharp downturn.Rail traffic volumes continue to adjust to evolving market conditions. In September 2025, total U.S. rail carloads fell 1.2% year-over-year, with 12 of the 20 major carload categories tracked by the AAR posting declines....U.S. intermodal rail shipments, which are closely tied to consumer demand and international trade, fell 1.3% in September 2025 from September 2024.
Novelis faces extended factory closure after fire, impacting auto supply chain - Novelis, a top supplier of aluminum sheets to the auto industry, expects a fire-ravaged critical facility in its Oswego, New York, manufacturing plant to remain closed until early 2026, a company spokesperson confirmed in an email to Supply Chain Dive. A Sept. 16 fire at the factory severely damaged Novelis’ hot mill, leaving the company scrambling to contain the damage to customers, which include Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Toyota Motor Corp. and Stellantis, per a securities filing. "We are urgently taking steps to minimize the impact of the recent fire at our Oswego facility on our customers," the spokesperson said. "We have activated Novelis’ global network of plants and are also partnering with industry peers to source material in order to help mitigate the gap in supply." Dive Insight: Despite working "around the clock" to restore the hot mill, Novelis did not expect to reopen the facility until "early Q1 of calendar year 2026," the spokesperson said. Ford accounted for most of the factory's output, according to Stephanie Brinley, associate director of AutoIntelligence at S&P Global. The automaker said it is working closely with Novelis and "a full team is dedicated to addressing the situation and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize any potential disruptions." Ford uses Novelis’ aluminum in its popular F-150 pickup truck. Meanwhile, General Motors and Toyota Motor did not expect Novelis' troubles to impact their operations significantly. Toyota said it could meet its aluminum needs through alternative suppliers. Stellantis said it is "taking the necessary actions to mitigate any potential impact on our ability to deliver vehicles to our customers.” Disruptions to Novelis' production could impact carmakers because the manufacturer accounts for 36% of the global market for aluminum to the auto industry, according to the company's securities filing. With so much aluminum coming from Novelis, automakers might have to shift current aluminum supplies between models, depending on customer demand, while seeking alternative sources, per Brinley. "It may be difficult and it may be expensive to find alternative sources, but we do think that will be the first effort that they make, and cutting production will be the thing that they do last," Brinley said. Automakers could also lean on aluminum imports from outside the U.S. However, with such imports currently facing 50% tariffs, companies may opt to ask the U.S. government for a temporary exemption, Brinley said. "I don't have any idea if that will be successful or not, but that's certainly one of the potential solutions." Regardless, aluminum costs are likely to go up for automakers temporarily. "We know it's going to be expensive, and we know it's going to be a problem that's going to cause a headache," Brinley said.
The shutdown meant no jobs report. Carlyle's analysis shows it would have been pretty bad - Employment growth was essentially flat in September, according to data from investment giant Carlyle that seeks to fill in data gaps created by the government shutdown. The firm said its proprietary data showed job growth of just 17,000 for the month, which would be even less than the 22,000 gain in August reflected in Bureau of Labor Statistics data.With the BLS shuttered and data releases suspended until the impasse between congressional Republicans and Democrats is resolved, Wall Street firms are rushing to provide alternative measures to paint a picture of where the U.S. economy is heading.Carlyle's data jibes somewhat with other releases showing little hiring growth.Last week, payrolls processing firm ADP reported a loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector, though that included a reduction stemming from adjustments to BLS revisions.Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas also reported last week that while layoffs declined in September, the level of planned hiring for firms hit its lowest since 2009, when the economy was still feeling the impact from the global financial crisis. To be sure, while Carlyle's data showed anemic payroll gains, other economic indicators painted a brighter picture. The firm said underlying gross domestic product growth was running at a 2.7% annualized pace in September while business investment accelerated 4.8% on a three-month average annual rate. Carlyle also reported that consumer prices for energy declined 3.8% while services excluding shelter, a key Federal Reserve data point, rose 3.3%. Carlyle said it derived its data from its "expansive global portfolio" that includes 277 companies, 694 real estate investments and 730,000 employees. Though the firm saw weaker employment data, Goldman Sachs recently said its "underlying job growth" tracker indicated a gain of 80,000 positions in September. Goldman also reported that the labor market is loosening, meaning there are more workers than jobs, to levels not seen in 10 years. A New York Fed survey released Monday indicated ongoing concern with the state of the labor market. The central bank's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations for September showed that the share of those expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now rose to 41.1%, up 2 percentage points from the prior month. Also, the mean probability of losing one's job in the next year increased to 14.9%, up 0.4 percentage point. However, the perceived probability of being able to find a job in three months after losing one's current position rose to 47.4%, up from a series low 44.9% in August.
Only 48% Of US Adults Under The Age Of 30 Have A Full-Time Job - Every month, federal bureaucrats tell us that the unemployment rate in this country is low, but at this point everyone knows that the numbers that they give us are fake. The reality of the matter is that it is now “the toughest time in years” to find a good job in the United States, and that is particularly true for our young people. According to Mark Mitchell, a Rasmussen Reports survey that will soon be released will show that only 48 percent of U.S. adults under the age of 30 currently have a full-time job…As the results of the last presidential election demonstrated, Rasmussen is typically very accurate.So this is an extremely alarming development. Vast numbers of our young adults are working low-paying part-time jobs right now because that is all they can get.But as the employment market gets even tighter, there will even be intense competition for those jobs.Day after day, large companies are slashing more high-paying positions. For example, Exxon Mobil just announced that it will be eliminating 2,000 jobs…Oil giant Exxon Mobil is preparing to cut thousands of jobs worldwide in a corporate reshuffling.A spokesperson for Exxon confirmed to Barron’s on Tuesday that the company plans to cut 2,000 jobs, representing 3% to 4% of the energy company’s global workforce. But that is nothing compared to what has been going on in the tech industry.Through September 15th, big tech companies had laid off 166,000 employees so far this year.Sadly, I expect to see the pace of layoffs accelerate in the months ahead because so many industries are deeply troubled at this moment. In recent days, we have been getting some extremely alarming warning signs from the auto industry… The warning signs are stacking up. First Brands, a manufacturer of filters, brakes, wipers, and lighting systems, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sunday night.Its collapse comes just two weeks after subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings went bankrupt and shut down, and follows June’s Chapter 11 filing by Marelli, a supplier for Nissan and Chrysler.Experts told the Daily Mail that these bankruptcies are another part of an auto industry flashing danger signals that could spill into the broader economy.
Gen X may be the first to need a universal basic income after late-career job loss -Some estimates suggest that half of all white-collar jobs will disappear as artificial intelligence advances. How will older white-collar workers displaced in the AI revolution fare? Our recent book, “American Idle: Late-Career Job Loss in a Neoliberal Era,” summarizes interviews we conducted with 62 baby boomers who lost their white-collar jobs during another unemployment crisis: the 2008 Great Recession and its sluggish recovery. Statistics show that workers over age 50 experienced the highest rates of long-term joblessness. Their layoffs also coincided with a precarious stage of the life course: “too young to retire but too old to start all over,” as one of our interviewees put it. Gen Xers today face the same quandary. There were, however, vastly different financial outcomes after these post-2008 layoffs. At one end of the spectrum were those boomers who experienced “hard falls.” Because long-term unemployment and back-to-back job losses were common within this group, some turned to accessing food pantries, applying for welfare benefits, or losing a home to a short sale or foreclosure. Job losses at the other end of the spectrum were “soft landings,” and individuals were more or less financially unscathed.Several factors facilitated soft landings. For instance, because these interviewees experienced years of job stability, their extended length of service translated into generous severance packages. Several also departed with defined benefits pension plans in hand. A guaranteed income stream for the remainder of their lives allowed for an unplanned early retirement for some. Family members, such as employed spouses or wealthy parents, were another source of financial support. Evidence suggests that compared to the boomers we studied, a larger proportion of Gen X are susceptible to hard falls than their predecessors. This demands a structural solution and a universal basic income might be the answer. First, baby boomers entered the labor force when white-collar workers were rewarded with job security and financial stability. In contrast, today’s office workers are encouraged to always be on the lookout for new opportunities. Frequent job changes, however, translate into a much smaller severance package when length of service factors into the equation. And whereas many of our soft landers had pensions, Gen X entered the labor force just as these secure retirement plans were being replaced with 401(k)s.Workers are expected to contribute a portion of their salary into these defined contribution plans. But because savings are personally invested, financial illiteracy and market volatility increase the level of risk. At the same time, low wage workers typically lack employer-supported retirement plans, and even if they do have access, they are less likely to participate due to financial hardship.Not to mention the collective net worth of Gen X is about half that of boomers. Because this generation also carries the highest rates of debt, the ability to retire comfortably will be jeopardized. With lower rates of home ownership than boomers at the same age, many Gen Xers will miss out on the long-term gains that can be derived from owning property. Finally, a growing share of older adults now live alone. In addition to lacking the financial support of an employed spouse, people who live alone tend to earn less than individuals who are married. This predisposes one-person Gen X households to a financial disadvantage that may turn a layoff into a hard fall. There is always the possibility that AI-induced job losses don’t materialize, given the current failure of artificial intelligence to increase worker productivity. Still, advancements are inevitable and with almost 900,000 private sector employees having already lost their jobs and another 300,000 federal government employees out of work by the end of 2025, white-collar workers are under threat from many sides. Older workers are encouraged to protect their finances in this unstable environment but as our research shows, it’s impossible to prepare for a bout of unemployment extended indefinitely by age discrimination in the hiring process.
Austin, Texas to close 13 schools, sell corporate sponsorships to close funding gap -- Austin Independent School District (AISD) released a proposal Friday to close 13 schools, causing panic and anger among parents and school teachers. The plan includes 11 elementary schools and two middle schools. The final vote on the school closure plan is set to take place on November 20. The announcement is part of a wave of school closures across both Texas and the United States. Virtually every major school district in America is operating with significant deficits, with a major factor being the ending of federal funding both under Trump and under Biden, who ended supplemental COVID funding for schools. In Texas itself, closures are either being planned or are already underway in Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston and a number of smaller districts in addition to Austin. On a national level, recent school closures have taken place in both large and small districts, including Philadelphia and Chicago. New closures are also being planned in the latter city, with similar closures under discussion in St. Louis, Los Angeles, Boston, Seattle, San Francisco, Norfolk, Virginia and numerous smaller districts throughout the country. The same week that the Austin closure was announced, the school district in nearby Leander made national and international headlines for its cancellation of 40 books used in high school English classes. The list includes classics such as To Kill a Mockingbird, The Narrative of the Life of Frederick Douglass, Les Miserables, and The Devil’s Arithmetic, a 1988 novel about the Holocaust. The district used AI software to ban so-called DEI-related school materials in compliance with Texas Senate Bill 12, passed in September. The Austin closures are expected to save a mere $20 million a year for the district, which will be almost entirely comprised of teacher layoffs. Thus, the closures not only have the effect of slashing expenditures, but serve to intimidate remaining teachers to toe the line and keep silent about low salaries and benefits, or ongoing attacks on civil rights by the Trump administration, supported by Texas Governor Greg Abbott. The district is also seeking to increase revenues through a new name-sponsoring program in which private enterprises may purchase naming rights for district facilities.
Gut Changes Persist Years After Stopping Certain Medications - The body clears medicines within hours to weeks. However, a recent study suggests that drugs you took years ago may continue to affect your gut—and the more frequently and the longer they’re used, the greater their effect.Nearly nine out of 10 commonly used medications leave permanent changes in gut bacteria - including drugs never before linked to digestive effects, according to the study.This holds true not only for antibiotics but also for drugs used to manage high blood pressure, anxiety, and stomach hyperacidity.“We may be underestimating the impact of common medications on gut health,” Kara Siedman, nutritionist and director of partnerships with resbiotic Nutrition, who wasn’t involved in the research, told The Epoch Times.The findings extend far beyond antibiotics, which doctors already know disrupt gut bacteria. The study showed that even medications targeting human cells—including antidepressants, beta-blockers, acid reflux medicines such as omeprazole, benzodiazepines, and metformin—reshaped the gut microbial composition.“We often think of medications as acting only on human cells, but they also interact with the gut ecosystem—the microbes, the intestinal barrier, and the immune system,” said Siedman.The study found that many drugs left lasting effects on the gut, still visible more than three years after people stopped taking them. To test whether the drugs themselves were responsible, the researchers tracked a smaller subgroup over time. In this group, starting a drug caused predictable gut shifts, and stopping it often reversed them, supporting a causal link.Findings showed that common drugs had similar effects to antibiotics. Benzodiazepines, commonly prescribed for anxiety, changed the gut as much as certain broad-spectrum antibiotics by reducing microbial diversity. Antidepressants also left patterns similar to those seen with antibiotics.
US relies heavily on China, other nations for antibiotics --A new analysis by researchers at Johns Hopkins University shows the United States has become increasingly reliant on other countries for antibiotics over the past 30-plus years. The study, published late last week in JAMA Health Forum, found that annual importation of antibiotics increased approximately 26-fold from 1992 through 2024. One of the countries that has emerged as a major supplier is India, which has accounted for nearly one third of finished antibiotics imported to the United States since 2020. But of even greater concern is that China provides US domestic drug manufacturers with more than 60% of the active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) needed to make the finished product. The authors of the study say the findings suggest the United States, which already faces persistent drug shortages and is no longer able to domestically produce key antibiotics such as penicillin and doxycycline, is becoming overdependent on other countries for its antibiotic supply and highly vulnerable to supply chain disruptions that could affect public health. Source of imported antibiotics has shifted The authors said the aim of their analysis was to provide some clarity on the sources of antibiotics sold in the United States, which have grown as US antibiotic production has waned. . But tracing where antibiotics come from is difficult, because most antibiotics are generic and can be made by multiple manufacturers. And even when a manufacturer is identified, the source of the API—the source of the drug's therapeutic effect—isn't always clear. For the study, the researchers examined data from USA Trade Online, a platform that tracks monthly US imports of all commodities collected by US Customs and Border Protection. They extracted importation records for antibiotic finished dosage forms (FDFs)—ie, the finished drug product—and APIs from 1992 through 2024, looking at the originating country, imported volume in metric tons, and the imported cost in US dollars. Antibiotics primarily used for veterinary purposes were excluded. The final sample included 50 FDF-originating countries and 52 API-originating countries. Over the 33-year study period, the annual volume of antibiotic FDF imports rose by 2,595%, while annual API imports remained relatively stable. Although annual spending on antibiotic FDF imports increased $1.5 billion, to $4.1 billion, annual spending on API imports progressively declined, and inflation-adjusted average importation prices declined significantly for both FDFs and APIs. For antibiotic FDFs, the top five importing countries from 2020 through 2024 were India (31.9% of the total imported volume), Italy (13.4%), Jordan (9%), Switzerland (8.5%), and Canada (7.7%). For antibiotic APIs, the top five importers were China (62.6% of the total imported volume), Bulgaria (16.1%), Spain (3.2%), Mexico (3.1%), and Israel (3.0%). API importing shifted significantly over the study period, with Europe accounting for 75% of API imports in 1992 and Asia accounting for 75% in 2024. China alone accounted for 70.1% of API imports in 2024. The analysis also found that FDF importation has become less concentrated over time, suggesting increasing competition, a finding the authors suggest reflects decades of incentives for pharmaceutical production in those countries. But API importation has become highly concentrated since 2008, with China dominating the space through a combination of government subsidies, lower labor costs, and less environmental regulation. "To the extent that domestic FDF manufacturers rely on imported APIs for their antibiotic production, the study's findings suggest that the US domestic antibiotic FDF industry relies heavily on Chinese APIs," they wrote. "Interruptions in Chinese exports due to geopolitical tensions, trade wars, manufacturing quality issues, or others could therefore substantially impact US domestic antibiotic production." "Expanding domestic manufacturing capacity (onshoring) and diversifying antibiotic supply chains through expanding sourcing from allied countries (friendshoring) are critical steps that depend on a detailed understanding of antibiotic supply chains and global sources," they wrote. "Specific drugs of critical interest should warrant targeted supply chain analysis and tailored strategies."
CDC approves limited recommendation for COVID-19 vaccine eligibility --The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) accepted an advisory panel’s recommendation Monday that people can get vaccinated for COVID-19 after consulting with a health provider. Last month’s recommendation from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) added another hurdle to the process for people who want to get an updated COVID-19 vaccine, though it will also likely preserve insurance coverage for the shots. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) accepted an advisory panel’s recommendation Monday that people can get vaccinated for COVID-19 after consulting with a health provider. Last month’s recommendation from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) added another hurdle to the process for people who want to get an updated COVID-19 vaccine, though it will also likely preserve insurance coverage for the shots. Most private insurers are required to cover the shots ACIP recommends, and many state policies on vaccines are tied to the committee’s guidelines. Once the panel’s recommendations are approved, they immediately become the policy for Medicare and Medicaid patients, as well as for anyone who uses the Vaccines for Children Program. The panel unanimously recommended people speak with their doctor about getting the COVID-19 shot, regardless of age or health conditions. The ACIP didn’t recommend vaccination, but it didn’t recommend against it either. Senate rejects dueling government funding bills on Day 6 of shutdown It marked a shift from the current universal recommendation that made shots widely available to anyone who wanted them. In August, the Food and Drug Administration narrowed marketing authorization for COVID-19 vaccines only to people with specific risk factors and individuals age 65 and older. “Informed consent is back,” acting CDC Director Jim O’Neill said in a statement. “CDC’s 2022 blanket recommendation for perpetual COVID-19 boosters deterred health care providers from talking about the risks and benefits of vaccination for the individual patient or parent. That changes today.” A person doesn’t necessarily need to make an appointment with a physician to get a vaccine, though some states still require prescriptions. According to the CDC, anyone who provides or administers vaccines is allowed to discuss the risks and benefits with patients. Separately, the CDC also adopted the panel’s recommendation that toddlers receive the chickenpox vaccine separate from the measles, mumps and rubella shot, rather than as a combined vaccination.
CDC announces changes to COVID, childhood vaccines, touting 'informed consent' -Today the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said it is now applying individual-based decision-making to COVID-19 vaccination instead of making routine recommendations on use.The CDC also recommended that toddlers receive the varicella (chickenpox) vaccine as a standalone immunization rather than in combination with measles, mumps, and rubella vaccination."Informed consent is back," said Acting Director of the CDC and Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Jim O’Neill in an HHS press release. "CDC's 2022 blanket recommendation for perpetual COVID-19 boosters deterred health care providers from talking about the risks and benefits of vaccination for the individual patient or parent. That changes today." Now, all Americans are tasked with consulting with their healthcare providers to decide if they should get a seasonal COVID-19 booster.The changes follow recommendations made by the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) last month, and are meant to place "shared clinical decision making" at the forefront of vaccine administration.On X, former director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Demetre Daskalakis, MD, MPH, said the announcement was misleading.All vaccines come with shared deciding making between patients and clinicians, he said. But under the new CDC recommendation, "Vaccinators may require proof of a discussion with a clinical before vaccination. In many states that means getting a prescription with a diagnosis code before a vaccine will be administered. This means that pharmacists, in some states, aren't given the authority to share in decision making."Daskalakis added, "All vaccination involves discussion. The acting director is showing his lack of experience in the clinical or policy space and is purposefully trying to say, 'finally clinicians have to talk to their patients.' "The recommendation for standalone varicella vaccination comes after ACIP was presented evidence by the CDC Immunization Safety Office showing that 12- to 23-month-old toddlers had an increased risk of febrile seizure 7 to 10 days after vaccination for the combined measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella vaccine compared to those given immunization for chickenpox separately.According to the HHS, the combination vaccine doubles the risk of febrile seizures without conferring additional protection from varicella.The combined vaccine was licensed in 2005 to promote increased vaccine uptake, but currently only15% of US parents choose it for children ages 12 to 15 months."I commend the doctors and public health experts of ACIP for educating Americans about important vaccine safety signals," O'Neill said. "I also thank President Trump for his leadership in making sure we protect children from unintended side effects during routine immunization."
CDC stops recommending COVID-19 shots for all, leaves decision to patients -(AP) — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has adopted recommendations by a new group of vaccine advisers, and stopped recommending COVID-19 shots for anyone — leaving the choice up to patients. The government health agency on Monday announced it has adopted recommendations made last month by advisers picked by U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Before this year, U.S. health officials — following recommendations by infectious disease experts — recommended annual COVID-19 boosters for all Americans ages 6 months and older. The idea was to update protection against the coronavirus as it continues to evolve. As the COVID-19 pandemic waned, experts increasingly discussed the possibility of focusing vaccination efforts on people 65 and older — who are among those most at risk for death and hospitalization. But Kennedy, who has questioned the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, abruptly announced in May that COVID-19 vaccines were no longer recommended for healthy children and pregnant women. He also dismissed the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and replaced them with a handpicked group. The new group voted last month to say all Americans should make their own decisions. But the CDC also says vaccine decisions, especially for seniors, should involve checking with a doctor, nurse or pharmacist. The recommendation was endorsed by Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services Jim O’Neill, who is serving as the CDC’s acting director. O’Neill signed off on it last week, but HHS officials announced it Monday. The panel also urged the CDC to adopt stronger language around claims of vaccine risks, despite pushback from outside medical groups who said the shots had a proven safety record from the billions of doses administered worldwide. In a statement Monday, O’Neill celebrated the change, saying past guidance “deterred health care providers from talking about the risks and benefits of vaccination.” “Informed consent is back,” O’Neill said in a statement some doctors objected to. Doctors routinely discuss vaccines with patients and parents, and share printed information about the risks and benefits of each shot, said Dr. Jesse Hackell, a retired New York physician who has coauthored several American Academy of Pediatrics policy statements on vaccinations. “To make a statement that informed consent is back implies that it had gone away. In no way has it gone away,” he said. Major medical societies continue to recommend shots for younger children, pregnant women and others at higher risk of severe illness. They say the Trump administration’s discussion of risk overemphasizes rare side effects and doesn’t account for the dangers of coronavirus infection itself. The decision clears the government’s Vaccines for Children program to ship COVID-19 vaccine doses. The program provides routine vaccinations at no cost to children whose families qualify. O’Neill also signed off on a panel recommendation that children under 4 get their first vaccine dose for varicella — also known as chickenpox — as a standalone shot rather than in combination shot with measles, mumps and rubella. There is a single shot that contains all four, but it carries a higher risk of fevers and fever-related seizures. Since 2009, the CDC had said it prefers separate shots for initial doses of those vaccines and 85% of toddlers already get the chickenpox vaccine separately.
Data suggest 29% to 64% efficacy of 2024-25 COVID vaccine against poor outcomes in US veterans -The estimated effectiveness of last year's COVID-19 vaccine among US veterans was 29% against related emergency department (ED) visits, 39% against related hospitalization, and 64% against death, researchers from the Veterans Affairs (VA) St. Louis Health Care System write in the New England Journal of Medicine. Published yesterday, the target trial used electronic health records to estimate the effectiveness of the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccine among 164,132 veterans who received COVID-19 and influenza vaccines on the same day and a comparison group of 131,839 veterans who received the flu vaccine only from September 3 to December 31, 2024. Most COVID-19 vaccinees received the Moderna mRNA vaccine (64.0%) or the Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine (35.3%). A total of 74.1% received the high-dose trivalent (three-dose) formulation of the vaccine. Follow-up was 6 months or until a specified outcome occurred. Six months after COVID-19 vaccination, the estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) was 29.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 19.1% to 39.2%) against related ED visits (risk difference per 10,000 people, 18.3), 39.2% (95% CI, 21.6% to 54.5%) against COVID hospitalization (risk difference per 10,000 people, 7.5), and 64.0% (95% CI, 23.0% to 85.8%) against related death (risk difference per 10,000 people, 2.2). Contemporary evidence of vaccine effectiveness is crucial to inform COVID-19 vaccine policy deliberations for the 2025–2026 season. COVID-19 VE against a composite of the three outcomes was 28.3% (95% CI, 18.2% to 38.2%), with a risk difference per 10,000 persons of 18.2 and mild waning over 6 months. The vaccine was tied to lower risks of the outcomes among all age-groups (younger than 65 years, 65 to 75, and older than 75), regardless of major underlying medical conditions and immune status. Vaccine use was tied to an estimated VE against the composite outcome of 37.1% (95% CI, 19.5% to 49.9%) at 1 to 60 days, 32.5% (95% CI, 14.3% to 45.6%) at 61 to 120 days, and 21.4% (95% CI, 0.3% to 37.0%) at 121 to 180 days. The findings closely reflect those seen in clinical trials and mechanistic studies of the vaccine. "The absolute risk reductions associated with vaccination were small (18.3 emergency department visits, 7.5 hospitalizations, and 2.2 deaths per 10,000 vaccinated persons) and may reflect the decreased baseline severity of contemporary SARS-CoV-2 infection," the researchers wrote.
Trial: Paxlovid retreatment after COVID rebound tied to faster drop in viral RNA but no clinical benefit - A phase 2 randomized controlled trial published in Clinical Infectious Diseases finds that retreatment with the antiviral combination nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid) after COVID-19 symptom rebound is safe and linked to a faster decline in viral RNA levels. But there was no clear clinical benefit because rebound was mild, short-lived, and didn't lead to severe illness. The double-blind trial compared the effectiveness and safety of a second 5-day course of Paxlovid (292 participants) with those of placebo/ritonavir (144) in participants with mild to moderate COVID-19 and a positive rapid antigen test (RAT) within 14 days of the initial Paxlovid treatment. The team tested participant nasal swabs at baseline and on days 3, 5, 10, 15, 21, 28, and 34 for SARS-CoV 2 RNA using quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and conducted whole-genome sequencing, genotyping, and viral-infectivity testing on swabs meeting a certain viral RNA threshold. Symptomatic or viral rebound is estimated to occur in 0.8% to 32% of Paxlovid recipients and 1.1% to 31% of those who receive placebo or no treatment, noted the study authors, who were current or former employees of Paxlovid maker Pfizer. A second 5-day course of Paxlovid resulted in a significant reduction in viral RNA levels on day 5 compared with placebo/ritonavir. The median time to two consecutive negative RAT results was 4 versus 5 days, and the median time to sustained resolution of all targeted signs and symptoms was 8 versus 9 days in the Paxlovid and placebo/ritonavir groups, respectively, but the results weren't statistically significant. The hazard ratio for Paxlovid versus placebo/ritonavir treatment was 1.24. Viral RNA rebound through day 34 was observed in 9 of 217 (4.2%) of Paxlovid recipients and 2 of 113 (1.8%) in the placebo group. Among all participants who were positive by viral recovery at baseline, 49 (87.5%) in the Paxlovid group and 21 (84.0%) of placebo/ritonavir recipients tested negative by day 3; all participants tested negative on days 5 through 34. None of the 11 participants who had viral rebound through day 34 tested positive for infectivity after treatment ended. COVID-related symptom scores were similar in the two treatment groups at baseline, with a numerically faster decline in symptom scores in the first 7 days of treatment in Paxlovid recipients than in those receiving placebo/ritonavir. After day 7, symptom scores were similar between the treatment groups. A total of 77 participants (26.6%) in the Paxlovid group reported mostly mild or moderate treatment-emergent adverse events, as did 30 (20.8%) in the placebo/ritonavir group. Paxlovid retreatment was well tolerated, and no participants were hospitalized for or died of COVID-19. "In this study, there was no clear benefit of retreatment because rebound was transient, mild, and did not lead to severe COVID-19," the researchers concluded. "Further studies are needed to identify patient groups that could benefit from repeated treatment for COVID-19 after symptom and/or viral RNA rebound."
Nearly 1 in 3 adults with severe long COVID have rare heart-rhythm disorder, data suggest -An uncommon heart-rhythm disorder occurs in nearly 1 in 3 adults with severe long COVID, most of them middle-aged women, Swedish researchers write in Circulation: Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology. In contrast, the condition affected less than 1% of the Swedish population before the pandemic. POTS causes a rapid heartbeat when standing up after lying down and sometimes at rest and during exercise. Because standing up triggers dizziness, affected patients prefer to sit or lie down (orthostatic intolerance). Karolinska Institutet investigators prospectively evaluated the prevalence and clinical effects of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) in 467 nonhospitalized patients who took sick leave from work at least half of the time because of persistent COVID-19 symptoms. The team also compared demographic factors and clinical outcomes among those diagnosed as having POTS with those without the heart-rhythm disorder. A median of 12 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, patients underwent physical testing and completed health forms. Those who showed signs of POTS met with a cardiologist, who performed 48-hour electrocardiography, the 6-minute walk test, head-up tilt testing, and the active stand test. An increase in heart rate of at least 30 beats per minute after moving from the supine (lying face up) or upright position without orthostatic hypotension and a symptom duration of at least 3 months after ruling out other conditions was diagnostic of POTS. Of all participants, 84% were women, and 32% had chronic diseases before their COVID-19 infection, with asthma (16%) and obesity (15%) being most common. In total, 31% of all long-COVID patients were diagnosed as having POTS, 27% didn't meet the criteria for the condition, and 42% had no clinical signs of POTS. Patients with a POTS diagnosis were nearly all women (91%) and younger than those who didn't meet the criteria or had no signs (average age, 40.0 vs 44.0 vs 47.0 years, respectively). Most middle-aged POTS patients were healthy and active before they developed long COVID. The most common symptoms were fatigue (93%), shortness of breath (70%), heart palpitations (60%), chest pressure (59%), joint pain (53%), problems concentrating (48%), abnormal sensations (47%), headache (47%), dizziness (46%), memory loss (45%), and cough (41%), but the distribution of symptoms was similar across the groups. POTS patients were significantly less physical active than the other two groups on the Frandin-Grimby scale and reported lower health-related quality of life. Heart rates during the 6-minute walk test while walking and at rest were elevated over a significantly shorter walking distance (448 meters [m] vs 472 m vs 509 m, respectively), but lung-function test results were similar among the groups.
Severe COVID may carry higher risk of long-term conditions requiring hospitalization through 6 months --A large real-world study suggests that while adults with mild or moderate COVID-19 are at only modestly greater risk of persistent symptoms than those with influenza, patients hospitalized for COVID-19 have a higher risk of severe long COVID requiring hospitalization through 6 months of follow-up. Researchers at the University of California Berkeley and Kaiser Permanente Southern California retrospectively analyzed data from 74,738 and 18,790 patients diagnosed as having COVID-19 or flu, respectively, from September 2022 through December 2023. Patients had received care for their initial infections at virtual visits (38.3%), clinics (28.4%), emergency departments (25.0%), or hospitals (8.3%). The aim of the study was to compare 6-month risk of healthcare use related to lingering COVID-19 or flu symptoms. "Post-acute sequelae (PAS) of SARS-CoV-2 infection are well documented," the study authors noted. "However, it remains unclear whether such long-term health effects are unique to COVID-19, or also occur following other viral respiratory infections." Their findings were published yesterday in PLOS Medicine. Death rate twice as high with COVID-19 Compared with flu patients, COVID-19 patients were older and had more underlying conditions, ambulatory healthcare use in the year before infection, and hospital admissions in the previous year. The risk of a PAS diagnosis in any setting was only slightly higher among COVID-19 patients than in those with flu 31 to 90 days after infection (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.04; risk difference, 0.6 cases per 100 person-months). This difference was attenuated by 91 to 180 days (aHR, 1.01; risk difference, 0.4 cases per 100 person-months). But COVID-19 patients were at higher risk of severe PAS requiring hospital admission (aHR, 1.31 and 1.24 at 31 to 90 and 91 to 180 days, respectively). The excess risk was primarily seen among COVID-19 survivors who were hospitalized for their infections and was reduced among those who received antiviral treatment, were current with vaccines before infection, or weren't hospitalized for their infections. In total, 826 COVID-19 patients (1.1%) and 89 flu patients (0.5%) died within 30 days after infection, and 1,391 COVID-19 patients (1.9%) and 149 flu patients (0.8%) died within 90 days. At 31 to 90 days after infection, 45.2% of COVID-19 patients and 38.9% of flu patients were diagnosed as having PAS, and 52.8% of COVID-19 patients and 44.0% of flu patients were diagnosed 91 to 180 days post-infection. Conditions of the heart and lungs were the most common outcome among both groups of patients. Long-term flu burden may be underrecognized Risk differences of post-acute exacerbations of pre-existing medical conditions between COVID-19 and flu patients were also most evident for in-hospital PAS diagnoses. Within 31 to 90 days post-diagnosis, point estimates were 19% to 122% higher risk for in-hospital PAS exacerbations of pre-existing conditions in all syndromic categories. By 91 to 180 days after post-infection, point estimates were attenuated in all categories except musculoskeletal and neurologic conditions (aHR, 3.16 and 2.61, respectively). Likewise, point estimates favored greater risk of new-onset PAS requiring hospitalization in COVID-19 patients, with aHR point estimates of 20% to 373% higher 31 at 90 days after infection in all disease categories. At 91 to 180 days post-infection, kidney PAS (aHR, 2.31) and skin-related PAS (aHR, 3.25) were higher among COVID-19 than flu patients for in-hospital diagnoses. "Generally, aHR estimates were associated with greater statistical uncertainty for comparisons of new-onset PAS diagnoses than for PAS exacerbations, reflecting the low incidence of new-onset PAS diagnoses compared to PAS exacerbations among both COVID-19 cases and influenza cases," the authors wrote. The researchers cautioned that their analyses included only PAS resulting in healthcare use and that patient-reported symptoms and quality-of-life measures weren't collected. "Our findings challenge assumptions about the uniqueness of post-acute COVID-19 morbidity and suggest the long-term burden of influenza may be underrecognized," they wrote. "Aside from influenza, PAS are also known to occur in association with numerous other respiratory viruses, including other sarbecoviruses, respiratory syncytial virus, enteroviruses, and Epstein-Barr virus," they added. "Improved understanding of this post-acute burden can collectively inform the value of interventions aiming to prevent or mitigate the severity of respiratory virus infections."
The shutdown's impact on health, RSV is stirring, Covid-19 vaccines finally given green light, deadly pasta outbreak, and lots of good news! -- Katelyn Jetelina | Your Local Epidemiologist - Helloooo, fall weather. Across the country, the forecast is shifting in more ways than one: the federal government has come to a standstill, impacting public health and potentially healthcare coverage; the respiratory viral season is starting to brew; and a few deaths have been linked to Trader Joe’s precooked pasta. But there’s also plenty of good news—from Covid-19 vaccines finally getting the green light to a Nobel Prize announcement. Plus, I’m answering a question one of my girlfriends texted me this week: What’s going on with pediatric Covid vaccines?The federal government shutdown means most CDC data updates are on pause. States are still reporting, but the CDC is important because it compiles all data into a single national picture. Currently, that picture is incomplete. I’m relying on PopHIVE from the Yale School of Public Health, which combines multiple data sources beyond the federal government, including Google Trends and medical records, to fill in the gaps. (Disclosure: I helped build it.)
- RSV season is starting to brew, with increased activity in Florida. RSV typically emerges in the Southeast and then sweeps across the nation, so this is an indicator that it’s on its way.
- Covid-19 trends continue to decrease, coming off the summer wave.
- Flu activity is still low. The season “officially” starts on calendar week 40, so all epidemiological eyes are now on flu.The respiratory season is slowly getting underway. Now is the best time to get respiratory vaccines before the winter season begins. For local updates, your state’s public health department remains the best source.
- A Listeria outbreak has been linked to precooked pasta. Four people have died, and 20 became severely ill, with all but one landing in the hospital. This is likely an undercount, as some people improve from Listeria exposure without treatment.Products include:
- Trader Joe’s and Walgreens Cajun Style Blackened Chicken Breast Fettuccine Alfredo
- Marketside Linguine With Beef Meatballs & Marinara Sauce
- Albertsons pasta salads
At this point, these products are primarily off store shelves, but they might be in your fridge. The recall affects everything with an October 10 use-by date. If you find them, toss them. As the investigation continues, additional products may be recalled. It’s been more than two weeks since ACIP, the vaccine policy advisory committee, recommended Covid-19 vaccines for everyone over six months old. The acting CDC Director finally signed off today. Typically, this approval happens within 24 to 48 hours, so the delay was highly unusual. This may seem like a small procedural detail, but that single signature now sets other steps in motion, like state and federal programs purchasing the vaccines. For example, the Vaccines for Children program, which provides more than half of all childhood vaccines in the U.S. at no cost, couldn’t order Covid-19 vaccines until now. That means many children, especially those who are uninsured or underinsured, couldn’t get vaccinated, even if they wanted to.
Second flu vaccine dose boosts protection in young, vaccine-naive kids, analysis suggests - A meta-analysis of 51 studies published today in JAMA Network Open estimate a 28–percentage-point increase in influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from a second inactivated dose for vaccine-naive children younger than 3 years. But no significant increase was observed when the age range was broadened to those younger than 9 years. Researchers in Australia and California analyzed peer-reviewed studies published from 1998 to 2024 that reported vaccine VE against influenza infection by number of doses among flu vaccine–naive children aged 6 months to 8 years. Modeling and cost-effectiveness studies were excluded. In total, the studies involved 415,050 participants."Based on the findings of immunogenicity studies, the World Health Organization has recommended influenza vaccine–naive children younger than 9 years receive 2 doses of influenza vaccine in the first year of vaccination," the researchers noted."It is theorized that 2 doses are necessary for influenza vaccine–naive children because they may also be influenza infection–naive and therefore do not benefit from the boosting of naturally acquired antibodies," they added. "However, the evidence supporting the seropositivity threshold for children is limited." The researchers estimated a statistically significant increase in VE of 28 percentage points (52%) for a second dose of inactivated flu vaccine (IIV) in the first year of vaccination for vaccine-naïve children younger than 3 years but no significant increase (15 percentage points; 43%) when the age range was expanded to children younger than 9 years."Our findings suggest the second dose of inactivated influenza vaccine confers additional protection for influenza vaccine–naive children younger than 3 years but that the benefit attenuates with age," they wrote. "Additional high-quality studies are needed to assess the impact of the 2-dose schedule for both vaccine types by age to determine the age range for which a 2-dose schedule is beneficial."
More measles cases confirmed in South Carolina, Michigan as US total climbs to 1,563 - A recent measles outbreak in South Carolinahas grown by two cases, according to health officials in the state, as the US outbreak total has reached 1,563 cases, the most in decades.Seven measles cases have been reported in Spartanburg County, South Carolina, since Sept. 25, and the state has had 10 total cases this year. The current outbreak has no identified source, which suggests measles is circulating in the community.In Muskegon County, Michigan, officials reported a second measles case with a possible exposure at an urgent care clinic. Michigan has now had 28 measles cases this year.Today the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its measles data for the country, showing a total of 1,563 cases in 2025, an increase in 19 cases since last week. This is the most cases seen in the United States since 2000, the year measles was officially declared eliminated. Twenty-seven percent of cases have been in children under the age of 5, and 92% of patients are unvaccinated or have an unknown vaccination status. CDC officials have confirmed 44 outbreaks, which account for 87% of confirmed infections.
State, county MMR vaccination data mask wide disparities in school uptake, researchers say - An examination of county- and school-level uptake of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine in Texas reveals broad disparities at the school level that helped fuel its recently concluded measles outbreak. For example, while overall coverage was 82% in Gaines County, the epicenter of the outbreak, school-based rates were as low as 46%. The findings, from a Yale School of Public Health–led research team, were published today in the Annals of Internal Medicine. The study authors mapped Texas kindergarten MMR uptake at the county and school-district levels and plotted private-school location using school-specific uptake from the Texas Annual Report of Immunization Status of Students. They then compared county-level vaccine coverage with individual school uptake in each county.n Low MMR vaccine coverage fueled the West Texas outbreak, which sickened 762 people, led to the hospitalization of 99, and killed 2 school-aged children. In total, 93% of them were unvaccinated. Cases in Oklahoma and Kansas were likely related to the outbreak. Although the outbreak, which began in January, was declared over on August 18, authorities said there will likely be more measles cases in Texas this year because outbreaks continue in other areas of the country and the world. "Maintaining measles elimination requires a minimum 95% vaccination coverage, a benchmark the United States overall and many states fail to meet," the study authors wrote. bbIn Gaines County, where overall MMR vaccine uptake was 82%, school-based rates ranged from 46.2% to 94.3%. Similarly, while Terry County had over 95.5% coverage, uptake at schools was 46.2% to 97.1%.
Data: Pediatric hospital strain amid 2022-23 respiratory virus season not tied to decline in beds -A Yale University–led research team reports that high US pediatric hospital bed occupancy (bed strain) and large differences in between-hospital bed occupancy (load imbalance) were common during the 2022-23 respiratory virus season, but weren't tied to pediatric bed capacity declines since 2010. For the study, published in JAMA Network Open, the researchers analyzed data on 254 US hospital referral regions (HRRs) with 547 total hospitals from the US Department of Health and Human Services to determine average weekly bed strain and load imbalances from September 2022 through January 2023. To measure pediatric bed capacity from 2010 to 2021, the team used American Hospital Association survey data. Bed strain was defined as over 85% bed occupancy per week, and load imbalance occurred when at least one hospital in an HRR had 85% bed occupancy or higher, one or more had an occupancy below that threshold, and the difference between the two was at least 20%. HRRs are geographic areas that define unique healthcare market regions. "During the 2022 respiratory viral surge, anecdotal evidence suggested that pediatric bed strain and load imbalance (hospitals in the same region experiencing disparate occupancy rates) may be linked to pediatric bed capacity changes during the preceding decade," the study authors wrote. On average, 112 (44.1%) HRRs experienced bed strain each week during the 2022-23 season, and of 123 regions with at least two hospitals with pediatric beds, an average of 82 (66.7%) per week experienced load imbalance. Bed strain peaked at 53.5% the week of November 4 and reached its nadir (29.5%) the week of December 23. A total of 49 (39.8%) HRRs experienced load imbalance during all 14 weeks of the study. The percentage of HRRs with pediatric load imbalance ranged from 73 (59.3%) to 88 (71.5%), peaking the week of November 4. Among all HRRs included in the bed-strain analysis, the number of pediatric beds per 10,000 children fell from 4.57 beds in 2010 to 4.02 in 2021, a 12.0% reduction. But no link between pediatric bed capacity changes and 2022 bed strain or load imbalance was found. In this cross-sectional study, we found a high overall prevalence of both pediatric and PICU bed strain and load imbalance during the 2022 respiratory viral season that was not associated with 2010-2021 pediatric bed capacity changes. An analysis of bed strain among pediatric intensive care units (PICUs) showed that of 115 HRRs with at least one PICU bed, 96 (83.5%) had at least 1 week of PICU bed strain. On average, 71 HRRs (61.7%) experienced PICU bed strain in any given week, and 32 (27.8%) had strain in all 14 weeks. The week of November 4 saw the highest number of HRRs experiencing PICU bed strain (87 of 115 [75.7%), and the week of December 23 had the lowest (60 of 115 [52.2%]). Of the 254 HRRs included in the pediatric strain and load imbalance analysis, the number of pediatric beds per 10,000 children dropped from 4.57 in 2010 to 4.02 (a 12.0% decrease) in 2021. And of the 115 HRRs included in the analysis of PICU strain and load imbalance, the number of beds per 10,000 rose from 0.69 in 2010 to 0.80 in 2021 (a 15.9% increase). "In this cross-sectional study, we found a high overall prevalence of both pediatric and PICU bed strain and load imbalance during the 2022 respiratory viral season that was not associated with 2010-2021 pediatric bed capacity changes," the authors concluded. "Our results suggest substantial opportunity for targeted load-balancing strategies during future pediatric hospitalization surges to be effective at reducing pediatric bed strain and harm."
Study finds carbapenem-resistant bacteria in nearly 2% of gram-negative isolates from dogs, cats --An analysis of antimicrobial susceptibility data from a veterinary diagnostic lab in New York City identified carbapenem-resistant organisms (CROs) in 1.6% of gram-negative isolates dogs and cats, researchers reported today in Open Forum Infectious Diseases. For the study, researchers with the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene retrospectively evaluated culture and antimicrobial susceptibility data on all bacterial isolates from dog and cat specimens submitted by New York City veterinary clinics, animal shelters, and veterinary referral hospitals to a single commercial diagnostic laboratory from 2019 through 2022. The team focused on CROs because of public health concerns about the multidrug-resistant pathogens, which can cause difficult-to-treat infections, and the potential for zoonotic transmission from companion animals to their owners. The study authors note that while CROs have been sporadically detected in dogs and cats, public health officials are rarely notified about such detections, and CRO prevalence in pet populations, whether its colonization or infection, is unclear. "Without notification and additional tests for CRO, public health entities are limited in their ability to support veterinary professionals with CRO infection prevention and control efforts," they wrote. Among 16,115 gram-negative isolates submitted, 256 (1.6%) from 180 dogs and 61 cats were identified as CROs. Detections ranged from 50 to 71 CRO isolates per year, with percent positivity ranging from 1.2% to 1.9%. The most frequently cultured CROs were Klebsiella spp., Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Escherichia coli. The most common specimen sites of CRO detections were urinary (20.3%), skin and soft tissue (17.1%), ears (17.2%), and lower respiratory tract (13.3%). Among the five New York City boroughs, Manhattan had the highest number of CROs detected. The authors conclude that systematic CRO animal surveillance systems are needed to provide a real-time picture of CRO prevalence in companion animals and inform infection-prevention efforts.
Multiple risk factors linked to Candida auris infection after colonization - A study of hospital patients in Florida indicates that multiple comorbidities and invasive devices are significantly associated with progression from Candida auris colonization to infection, researchers reported last week in Clinical Infectious Diseases. In one of the largest analyses of its kind, researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Florida Department of Health used a case-control methodology to investigate factors associated with C auris infection after prior colonization among patients identified in Florida healthcare facilities from 2019 through 2023. An estimated 4,000 hospital patients in Florida have been colonized or infected with the multidrug-resistant yeast since it was first identified in the state in 2017, but why some patients develop clinical signs and symptoms while others remain colonized is unclear. After reviewing the records of 1,073 patients, the researchers identified 105 case-patients (median age, 64 years) with documented clinical specimens after colonization and 578 control subjects (median age, 69 years) with colonization only. Unadjusted measures revealed several factors that were significantly associated with progression to clinical cases, including the presence of five or more comorbid conditions (odds ratio [OR], 10.02; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.07 to 24.7), four or more invasive devices (OR, 2.92; 95% CI, 1.70 to 5.03), or three or more recent medical procedures (OR, 2.32; 95% CI, 1.19–4.55). Other factors included fully dependent care required for eating (OR, 2.80), limited mobility (OR, 2.15), inability to transfer (OR, 1.82), and being in the 50- to 64-year-old age-group (OR, 1.77). The authors say healthcare facilities could consider prioritizing high-acuity patients for early C auris screening, transmission-based precautions, and infection prevention interventions.
Pakistan, Nigeria report new polio cases - Pakistan and Nigeria each reported three new polio cases this week, according to the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GEPI).In Pakistan, the three wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) patients, located in Sindh, first experienced paralysis in August. So far this year, Pakistan has reported 29 polio cases. Last year officials confirmed 74 WPV1 illnesses. Nigeria reported three circulating variant poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases this week, from Borno, Kebbi, and Zamfara states, with paralysis onsets in May and July, pushing the year's total to 35. Last year, the country reported 98 cVDPV2 cases.
Quick takes: New measles cases in Utah, Ebola spread slows in DR Congo | CIDRAP
- The Utah Department of Health and Human Services has announced 6 more measles cases,bringing the state's total to 53. All new cases are in the southwest region, which is the epicenter of measles activity in the state. Of the 53 measles patients, 6 have required hospitalization. All but one were unvaccinated or have unknown immunization status.
- Today the World Health Organization (WHO) said there have been no new confirmed or probablyEbola cases reported in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. As of October 5, 10 days have passed with no new cases, suggesting transmission has slowed. There is one new death reported, however, in a 3-week-old baby who was previously listed as hospitalized for Ebola infection. The outbreak has had 64 confirmed or probable cases of Ebola, including 43 deaths.
- A seventh young child in Israel has died this year from measles, according to the Jerusalem Post today. The latest death involves a 1-year-old in Jerusalem. Last week saw two deaths in toddlers. All of the infants who have died were otherwise healthy and had no underlying conditions. Currently, 25 measles patients are hospitalized in Israel, most of them younger than 6 years and unvaccinated. In other measles news, the Toronto Star reports that health officials in Ontario have declared the province's measles outbreak over after more than 2,300 people were sickened over the course of almost a year.
- Four counties in Wisconsin have suspended all poultry shows for the rest of the year to prevent the spread of bird flu, according to local media reports. The bans are in Jefferson, Waukesha, Walworth, and Rock counties. Also, the US Department of Agriculture's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service added a large outbreak at a commercial egg-laying farm in Washington to its list of recent outbreaks. The farm houses almost 2 million chickens.
- Health officials in Senegal have confirmed 17 deaths from Rift Valley fever amid its worst outbreak in decades, Reuters reports. In total, 119 cases have been reported, mostly in the north in a major livestock-producing region. The disease primarily affects livestock and spreads in people through mosquito bites or contact with the body fluids of infected animals.
West Nile death reported in California -California yesterday reported its fifth West Nile virus–related death this year, in a man from Placer County in the Central Valley. There have been 54 confirmed human West Nile virus cases in the state this year, 5 of them in Placer County, where county officials said high numbers of West Nile virus-positive mosquitoes and dead birds have been found. It's the first West Nile virus–related death in the county this year. Though the risk of serious illness from West Nile virus is low, less than 1% of those infected can develop a serious illness known as neuroinvasive West Nile, which is fatal for about 10% of patients. People 50 years of age and older have a higher chance of getting sick and are more likely to develop complications. "When there is a higher than normal proportion of West Nile virus infected mosquitoes as there has been this year, despite our efforts to reduce these populations, the risk of disease transmission to people also gets higher," Joel Buettner, general manager of the Placer Mosquito and Vector Control District, said in a county news release. "West Nile virus can be a deadly disease and we encourage everyone to take precautions to reduce their risk of mosquito bites." West Nile is the leading mosquito-borne illness in the continental United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has tracked 1,137 cases so far in 2025 in 42 states. Activity is up about 40% from last year.
Locally transmitted US malaria cases highlight increased risk, CDC report suggests -- A new paper describes the first locally acquired cases of mosquito-transmitted malaria in the United States in 20 years. The paper, published yesterday in JAMA Network Open, examines the epidemiology of 10 locally transmitted malaria cases that were identified from May to September 2023 in Florida, Texas, Arkansas, and Maryland, and how public health officials responded to and contained the outbreaks. Authors from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and health departments in the four states say the cases were unexpected, though an increase in imported malaria cases and a hot summer in 2023 may have played a role. Malaria was eliminated in the United States in 1951, and the last locally transmitted cases prior to 2023 occurred in Florida in 2003. But the disease, which is caused by Plasmodium spp parasites and transmitted by female Anopheles mosquitoes, remains a significant health threat in Africa and many other parts of the world, with an estimated 263 million cases and 597,000 deaths in 2023. And despite US malaria elimination, Anopheles species persist in parts of the country. The authors say that while a malaria is unlikely to reestablish itself in the United States, the cases highlight the need for vigilance. "Increased travel and population movement to and from malaria-endemic regions, persistent vectors, and increased temperatures may be increasing the risk of local transmission in the US," they wrote. Of the 10 patients (median age, 39.5 years; 70% male) with confirmed malaria attributed to local transmission, 7 lived within a 4-mile radius of each other in Sarasota County, Florida, and experienced illness onset from May to July 2023. The three other patients were in Cameron County, Texas; National Capital Region, Maryland; and Saline County, Arkansas. Nine of the patients were hospitalized, and one met the clinical criteria for severe malaria. All received antimalarial treatment and recovered. None of the patients had traveled outside the country in the preceding 2 years or had a history of blood product transfusion, organ transplant, recent tattoos, or needle-sharing. But all reported time spent outdoors at night, when female Anopheles mosquitoes seek human hosts. All seven Florida patients and the patients in Texas and Arkansas had Plasmodium vivax infections, and the patient in Maryland had a Plasmodium falciparum infection. Molecular analysis revealed that the Florida patients shared the same P vivax strain, while the Texas and Arkansas P vivax cases were genetically distinct from each other and the Florida cases. All P vivax strain had genetic signatures consistent with Central or South American parasites, and the Maryland P falciparum case had genetic signatures consistent with African parasites. Increased travel and population movement to and from malaria-endemic regions, persistent vectors, and increased temperatures may be increasing the risk of local transmission in the US. Analysis of 783 Anopheles mosquitoes captured in all four states identified P vivax DNA in the abdomens of three Anopheles crucians mosquitoes captured from the same swamp in Sarasota County over three collection nights, suggesting the mosquitoes had recently fed on an infected person. The public health response included outreach to affected neighborhoods, overnight insecticide spraying targeting mosquito-breeding sites and areas where affected patients lived and worked, and distribution of bed nets and mosquito repellant. The CDC monitored the outbreaks, coordinated interstate technical support, and notified and offered training to local healthcare providers and laboratories. "No additional locally acquired mosquito-transmitted malaria cases were detected following the illness-onset date (September 18, 2023) of the patient in Arkansas, and several factors suggested that no further local transmission occurred domestically in 2023," the authors wrote. Although multiple factors were likely involved in the outbreaks, the authors note that preliminary data suggest there was a record high of 2,205 imported malaria cases in the United States in 2023, and that three of the states where the locally acquired cases occurred (Florida, Texas, and Maryland) are among those reporting the top quartile of imported cases. In addition, 2023 was the fifth-hottest US year on record. "Seasonal increases of imported malaria during the summer months further intensify the potential for local transmission as competent vector populations simultaneously expand with increases in temperature," the researchers wrote. To help prevent and mitigate future outbreaks, the authors encourage travelers to complete courses of malaria chemoprophylaxis (drugs to prevent disease) before, during, and after trips to malaria-endemic regions and call on healthcare providers to provide timely diagnosis and proper treatment and to report cases promptly to public health officials. They also say more research is needed on Anopheles populations within the United States, and how changes in temperature and precipitation may affect local malaria transmission.
Flurry of H5N1 activity noted in commercial poultry, wild birds -The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has noted several new H5N1 outbreaks and detections in commercial poultry flocks, backyard flocks, and wild migrating birds.The uptick in H5N1 activity signals that the avian influenza season is fully under way, with states in the Midwest and the South mostly affected in the new reports.Over the last 30 days, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been confirmed in 38 flocks, including 24 commercial flocks and 14 in backyard locations. Over that period, more than 4.4 million birds were affected. In the past week, 5 commercial and 6 backyard locations were identified.Two large commercial turkey farms in Minnesota have new outbreaks. In Becker County, 72,500 birds have been affected, and in Kandiyohi County, a flock of 32,900 birds was affected. Outbreaks among backyard poultry in Montana, Arkansas, Idaho, and Oregon were also reported, with flock sizes ranging from 30 to 70 animals.Wild-bird detections have also spiked, especially in migratory blue-winged teal. In Kansas, 20 hunter-harvested blue-wing teal had H5N1. Five blue-wing teal collected in Cameron County, Louisiana, were also infected.Wyoming, Ohio, Colorado, Kentucky, Virginia, and New York each reported single H5 detections in black and turkey vultures. In Michigan, four Canada geese and a trumpeter swan were found to have HPAI.In related scientific news, a replicating RNA vaccine based on older, historical H5N1 avian flu antigens can protect macaques from lethal infections with the latest strains of the H5N1 avian flu virus, according to a study in Science Translational Medicine. “These data support continued development of HPAI A H5N1 vaccines and suggest that existing stockpiles may offer some protection to humans,” the authors wrote.And in the Journal of Wildlife Diseases, a letter from Canadian researchers describes highly pathogenic H5N1 avian flu detected in 41 species at risk (SAR) in Canada. Detections were found in 20 species on Canada’s endangered or threatened list. Eight mammal species also had detections, but none met the criteria for SAR.
Researchers: Live H5N1 avian flu can survive in raw-milk cheese for up to 6 months -- Infectious H5N1 avian influenza virus can persist in raw-milk cheeses while they are being made and for up to 120 days of aging, depending on the milk's acidity (pH) level, according to a report published yesterday in Nature Medicine. "Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 viruses have recently spread to dairy cattle, with high levels of virus detected in milk from affected animals, raising concern about the risk posed by unpasteurized dairy products consumed by humans," wrote the Cornell University–led research team. The investigators assessed H5N1 viral persistence in raw-milk cheeses made with milk acidified to pH levels of 6.6, 5.8, and 5.0 (the lower the pH, the higher the acidity) and spiked with H5N1 virus before cheese making. They validated their findings in commercial raw-milk cheeses inadvertently containing naturally contaminated raw milk and fed the raw milk and cheese to ferrets to evaluate virus infectivity. Viral survival depended on the pH level of the raw milk, with infectious virus persisting throughout the cheese-making process and for up to 120 days of aging in cheeses made with raw milk at pH levels of 6.6 and 5.8 but not 5.0. The current regulation requiring 60-day aging of raw-milk cheese before marketing proves insufficient to achieve HPAI H5N1 virus inactivation and guarantee cheese safety. Of note, while ferrets fed H5N1 virus–contaminated raw milk became infected with H5N1, those fed raw-milk cheese or a cheese suspension didn't. The researchers said the lack of infection after cheese consumption may be attributable to the potentially higher oral infectious dose of H5N1 virus in solids versus liquids or ferrets' tendency to swallow small pieces of cheese whole, potentially limiting viral contact and exposure to the oropharynx. The lack of infection in ferrets fed cheese suspension can likely be attributed to lower infectious H5N1 virus levels in these samples. "The current regulation requiring 60-day aging of raw-milk cheese before marketing proves insufficient to achieve HPAI H5N1 virus inactivation and guarantee cheese safety," the authors concluded. "Implementing additional mitigation steps, such as testing of raw-milk bulk tanks or using milk pasteurization, thermization or acidification before cheese making, becomes crucial to ensure food safety."
Quick Takes: New World screwworm in Mexico, H5N1 in turkeys, West Nile in Europe | CIDRAP
- Mexican health officials have confirmed 3 new human cases of New World screwworm in the past week, for a cumulative total of 55. The parasitic fly usually infects cattle, but it can lay eggs on humans. Infestations can be serious and lead to sepsis if untreated, but are not contagious.
- The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) reported a newly confirmed H5N1 avian flu outbreak in commercial turkeys in Ottawa County, Michigan, involving 30,000 birds. This is the first detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Michigan since January. A backyard flock in Beaverhead, Montana of 40 birds was also confirmed to have H5N1.
- The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) today released updated data onWest Nile virus activity on the continent. So far this year 13 countries in Europe have reported 989 locally acquired cases, 714 of which (72%) are in Italy.
Researchers just unleashed microbes trapped in Arctic ice for 40,000 years: ‘These a re not dead samples’ -From The Last of Us to The Thing, blockbuster movies and TV shows have been trying to warn the world not to dig into ancient ice, open the cursed Mummy’s tomb, or recreate dinosaurs, for decades. And yet, geologists and biologists at the University of Colorado Boulder said Thursday they’ve begun resurrecting ancient microbes that had been trapped in Arctic ice for as many as 40,000 years. Sleeping bacteria can survive without nutrients, heat, or light for centuries, according to Harvard Medical School. “These are not dead samples by any means,” Tristan Caro, a former graduate student in geological sciences at the university, said in a statement. “They’re still very much capable of hosting robust life that can break down organic matter and release it as carbon dioxide.” The team of scientists from across the country dug the microbes out of Alaskan permafrost — a mix of soil, ice, and rocks — working some 350 feet below the Earth’s surface. The samples were taken from the walls of a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers research facility near Fairbanks known as the “Permafrost Tunnel,” which was first excavated in the 1960s and contains mammoth bones from the Ice Age. Then, they tried to wake the microbes up, exposing them to water and temperatures of 39 and 54 degrees Fahrenheit, which are hot for the region. After observing the microbes for six months, there were surprising results. While the groups of bacteria had grown very slowly in the first few months, some began to produce a thin, sticky substance known as a biofilm, which protects viruses and can help them to spread. That means it could take a few months for microbes to become active after a hot spell, they said. “We wanted to simulate what happens in an Alaskan summer, under future climate conditions where these temperatures reach deeper areas of the permafrost.” said Caro. The effort comes as Arctic ice has melted at unprecedented rates due to climate change. The region, which spans some 5.5 million square miles, has warmed four times faster than anywhere else on Earth since 1979, according to Finnish researchers. By 2100, the European Space Agency estimates that as many as two-thirds of near-surface permafrost could be lost. Melting permafrost releases the planet-warming greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane, compounding the problem. Researchers at MIT estimate that the world’s permafrost has as many as 1,500 billion tons of carbon — almost double the amount of carbon currently in the atmosphere, according to NOAA. That’s not the only danger. Scientists have warned for years that the permafrost harbors unknown bacteria and viruses, with potentially dire consequences to human health. “We really don’t know what’s buried up there,” Birgitta Evengård, a microbiologist at Sweden’s Umeå University, told NPRin 2016. “This is Pandora's box.” Some of these microbes may already be resistant to our antibiotics. And some species may be completely new, as they’ve had to adapt to harsh conditions. So, why try to remove and revive them? Well, studying the microbes gives experts a greater understanding of what’s out there. Ancient bacteria can lead to infections, but it could also help develop new antibiotics for medical use. One bacterium found in Arctic soil could even help clean up oil spills.Scientists previously revived an older strain of the so-called “zombie viruses” and and there hasn’t been much cause for panic so far. While an ancient virus could be reactivated and infect humans, most of the viruses revived thus far only infect amoebas, notes Medical University of South Carolina researcher Douglas Johnson, and many are too fragile to survive modern conditions. Right now, it remains hard to say just how worried we should be Andrea Hinwood, The United Nation Environment Programme’s Chief Scientist, said.
EPA faulted for slighting ‘Cancer Alley’ risks - EPA significantly underestimates the long-term cancer hazard posed by formaldehyde and a slew of other hazardous air pollutants in a hotbed of U.S. petrochemical production, researchers conclude in a new study.The study, published online Monday and led by scientists at John Hopkins University and the University of Arizona, tapped mobile air monitoring to track pollutant concentrations at various spots along the Louisiana industrial corridor often dubbed “Cancer Alley.”For all but one of 15 census tracts, the authors found that the estimated lifetime cancer risk for local residents was higher than EPA’s figures. While the median difference was about five times greater, it ranged up to more than 11 times as much. “This cancer risk is unacceptably high, especially for an area with high social and economic vulnerabilities,“ the authors wrote.
3M Company hit with stunning multimillion-dollar fine for endangering consumers - The city of Columbus, Ohio, recently received a $4 million initial settlement from the 3M Company — a small part of the broader ongoing case against the rampant corporate use of PFAS. Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, also known as PFAS or "forever chemicals," are toxic and long-lasting chemicals found in many of our household items, including nonstick cookware and toiletries. While most regions have regulations in place to prevent the unsafe and excessive production and release of PFAS-based goods, the pervasiveness of PFAS in our everyday supplies has so far made cutting them out altogether rather difficult for manufacturing companies like 3M. According to the Columbus Dispatch, manufacturing conglomerate 3M — known for common staples like command hooks and Post-It notes — isn't the only one targeted by the latest Ohio lawsuits. Chemicals company DuPont is one of several other defendants, and 3M's $4 million in initial settlement payments is only the beginning. While the PFAS levels in Columbus' drinking water are currently stable, the lawsuit has beenissued on the grounds that the products manufactured by the affected companies have a high potential to contaminate the city's groundwater and eventually infiltrate the civilians' food and water supply. In recent years, studies on the subject have linked PFAS exposure to a range of cancers, reproductive issues, immune deficiencies, birth and developmental defects, higher cholesterol levels, and more, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Since PFAS can take hundreds to thousands of years to degrade naturally in our environment, their toxinslinger in various organic resources — most notably, the water and crops we ingest. Meanwhile, corporations that take the dangers of exposure lightly and continue to produce PFAS in their manufactured goods inadvertently enable and even encourage more of the same behavior. It's this kind of oversight that allows PFAS and other toxins to build up in our environment as a collective, irresponsible outcome. "Corporations like 3M knew the dangers of producing forever chemicals, did nothing to protect consumers or the environment, and now are being held accountable for their negligence," city attorney Zach Klein told CW Columbus. "This settlement ensures that these companies — not ratepayers — are on the hook for cleaning up the mess they made."
The world's chemical pollution: Current state of research -- Two authors from ETH Zurich and RPTU Kaiserslautern-Landau have concluded that the rapid production and distribution of chemicals in the environment means that regulatory risk assessment can no longer keep pace with their ever-increasing numbers. In their study of global chemical pollution, the researchers provide an overview of particularly problematic chemical groups, such as PFAS and pesticides, and advocate comprehensive changes to address the associated risks to humans and the environment more effectively. The study is published in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources. Chemicals are used for a wide variety of purposes today, including pharmaceuticals, pesticides, intermediates in industrial production, chemicals in consumer products, and plastic additives. For their study, the scientists compiled knowledge on all these groups of substances and identified the main problem areas in terms of human health and the environment. "Pesticides are characterized by very high toxicity. This makes it necessary to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the active ingredients and concentrations that actually remain in the environment. We now know that, for example, many pesticides are found in water bodies at concentrations that exceed the levels considered safe for ecosystems," explains environmental scientist Ralf Schulz from Landau. PFAS are increasingly accumulating in the environment Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are generally less toxic. However, it is their extremely long half-lives that are problematic—some of these substances do not degrade in the environment even over decades. As a result, more and more PFAS are present and, over time, accumulate to such an extent that they reach alarming concentrations. The introduction of PFAS in the 1950s was actually intended to replace another problematic group of chemicals. Today, we know that PFAS can cause a variety of health problems in humans. In many cases, their use could be eliminated entirely, or the desired effects of PFAS could be replaced by alternative, less problematic chemicals. Complex challenges with global implications "The biggest challenge we face is the increasing number of chemicals and the associated difficulty of adequately assessing their risks," says Schulz. The researchers therefore propose a transition aimed at reducing the number of chemicals produced and used in order to ensure regulatory control over their potential impact on humans and the environment. Substances that are both persistent and toxic should be restricted as a matter of principle. However, exceptions would be made for a few applications, such as PFAS in certain medical devices, for which there is currently no adequate alternative. In addition, the necessary innovations in the chemical industry require political impetus to create the appropriate framework conditions. Last but not least, it is essential to focus on and assess chemical pollution, similar to climate change, at a global level and through international organizations, as it is a global environmental change phenomenon.
Industry scientists reveal reluctance to test chemicals for behavioral effects, despite growing evidence An international study led by the University of Portsmouth has revealed reluctance from industry scientists to test chemicals for their effects on human and wildlife behavior, despite growing evidence linking environmental pollutants to neurological disorders and behavioral changes.The researchers surveyed 166 scientists across 27 countries working in environmental toxicology and behavioral ecology. They found that while 97% of experts agree that contaminants can impact wildlife behavior and 84% believe they can affect human behavior, there remains a stark divide between sectors on how to address these risks.Industry scientists were consistently more skeptical about the reliability and necessity of behavioral testing compared to their academic and government counterparts, raising questions about potential conflicts of interest in chemical safety assessment.The findings, published in Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management, revealed that 76% of academics and 68% of government scientists considered behavioral experiments reliable, compared to just 30% from industry.When asked whether regulatory authorities should consider behavioral tests when assessing chemical safety, 80% of academics and 91% of government scientists agreed, but less than a third (30%) of industry respondents supported this approach.The connection between chemical exposure and behavioral changes is far from new. The English language shows evidence of these links in historical phrases like "mad as a hatter"—referring to hatmakers who suffered neurological damage from mercury poisoning—and "crazy as a painter," describing the erratic behavior of artists exposed to lead-based paints. Today's concerns center on whether modern pollution could be contributing to rising rates of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, autism, and even criminal behavior. Recent studies have linked air pollution to neurological disorders, including Parkinson's and Huntington's disease, while research continues to examine the role of environmental contaminants in neurodevelopmental conditions. Professor Alex Ford from the University of Portsmouth's Institute of Marine Sciences, who led the research, expressed concern about industry attitudes, saying, "What worries me is that industry appears apprehensive that testing chemicals for their behavioral effects will lead to increased costs and potentially uncover effects they'd rather not have to address. When we're talking about protecting human health and wildlife, surely using the most sensitive, and thereby most protective, data should take priority over profit margins."
Counting plastic reveals hidden waste and sparks action - Online supermarket shopping is fueling Britain's plastic waste crisis because packaging is less visible to consumers, according to new research from the Revolution Plastics Institute at the University of Portsmouth.The study, published in Environmental Science & Policy, found that nearly half of U.K. households underestimate how much plastic they throw away each week, a phenomenon researchers call "plastic blindness." Those who relied most heavily on online grocery deliveries were especially likely to be shocked by the volume of waste they consumed."We believe plastic blindness is a coping strategy," explains lead author Dr. Kate Whitman of the Revolution Plastics Institute. "Consumers have little power to go completely plastic-free, so ignoring the waste we generate can feel necessary for peace of mind. But when that waste becomes impossible to overlook, concern rises and people become more willing to engage in reuse and refill systems."Online retailers could help by making packaging impacts visible at the point of purchase—and by offering clear reuse or refill alternatives to single-use packaging."The findings, published today, combine three datasets gathered over two years: the U.K.'s biggest-ever citizen science project on plastic waste, The Big Plastic Count (2022 and 2024), which tracked household plastic use across two seven-day periods; a follow-up survey of more than 8,000 participants, capturing attitudes to recycling, reuse and refill systems; and a Greenpeace petition, which measured whether participation in the count influenced public action in support of an ambitious Global Plastics Treaty.On average, households disposed of 23 plastic items per person per week—13 "soft" plastics such as wrappers and film lids, and 10 "hard" plastics such as yogurt containers. Soft plastics accounted for about 30% more waste. Almost half of participants, 45%, admitted they discarded considerably more plastic than they expected. Researchers found a direct link between online shopping frequency and the degree of surprise at waste levels. "Those who shop online were the most unconscious consumers in terms of plastic consumption," adds Dr. Whitman. "But once confronted with the reality, people were shocked and that shock can be harnessed as a catalyst for change." The study also showed that awareness campaigns can mobilize both behavior change and political action. Participation in The Big Plastic Count correlated with a surge in signatures on a Greenpeace petition demanding stronger measures at UN negotiations for a Global Plastics Treaty. In April 2024, after results from the count were published, petition signatures increased by 350 percent compared with the previous month. Participants were 10 times more likely to sign than non-participants.
Korea’s wildlife is vanishing, hunted to the brink of extinction South China Morning Post From tigers and leopards to bears, otters and deer, North Korea’s forests are falling silent. Almost every large mammal is being hunted to the edge of eradication in a collapse driven by economic desperation, black markets and state-backed exploitation, new research warns.The study, co-authored by the British conservationist Joshua Elves-Powell and published in Biological Conservation in August, paints a grim picture of rapid ecological decline in a country with some of East Asia’s richest and least studied ecosystems.“There is a strong risk of defaunation of North Korea’s forests, a scenario where they are effectively emptied,” Elves-Powell, an associate lecturer in biodiversity conservation and ecology at University College London, told This Week in Asia.“If that happens, then not only is biodiversity lost and there is an impact on local people, but there is also an effect on the wildlife of neighbouring South Korea, China and Russia.” Among the species highlighted by the study is the sable, once abundant on the Korean peninsula and long prized for its dense fur. Today, Elves-Powell believes it is “functionally extinct” in the North.
Canada's Marineland theme park says it will have to euthanize 30 beluga whales without emergency funding - A Canadian theme park said it will have no choice but to euthanize 30 beluga whales if the federal government does not provide emergency funding by the end of Tuesday. Marineland, a zoo and amusement park under heavy scrutiny for its treatment of captive animals, closed to the public last year and has reportedly been trying to sell its assets since. It remains in possession of the last captive whales in Canada, which it says it lacks the resources to continue caring for. Earlier this month, Canada denied the park's request to send the whales to the Chimelong Ocean Kingdom theme park in China. Fisheries minister Joanne Thompson said export "would perpetuate the treatment these belugas have endured." According to the Canadian Press news agency, 20 whales — one killer whale and 19 belugas — have died at Marineland since 2019. It was that year when Canada's legislature passed the bill, which would go on to become law, making it illegal to hold a whale, dolphin or porpoise captive — punishable by fines of up to $150,000. Inspectors previously declared that all animals at Marineland were in distress due to poor water quality. On Friday, park management wrote to the federal government requesting a cash infusion by Oct. 7, according to reports by The New York Times and CBC News. "If we do not receive a response by that date, we will have no choice but to presume that the answers to our inquiries are negative," Marineland reportedly wrote, adding that it will "face the devastating decision of euthanasia." Thompson declined the request, according to the Times. "The fact that Marineland has not planned for a viable alternative despite raising these whales in captivity for many years, does not place the onus on the Canadian government to cover your expenses," she wrote. While Canada's fisheries minister has argued whales belong in the ocean, some experts have warned that marine mammals bred in captivity cannot be returned to the wild without extensive planning, as the animals often lack hunting and social interaction skills. Ocean-themed live shows have faced declining attendance and heightened criticism in recent years, with rights campaigners raising animal welfare concerns in many Western countries.
Abandoned land drives dangerous heat in Houston, researchers find - On a scorching Texas afternoon, some Houston neighborhoods heat up far faster than others. New research from Texas A&M University shows vacant and abandoned land is a big reason why. A new study led by Dr. Dingding Ren, a lecturer in the Department of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, finds that vacant lots with vegetation can help cool surrounding areas. Abandoned buildings and paved lots do the opposite, raising land surface temperatures by as much as 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Ren said many low-income residents run their air conditioning less to save money, leaving them even more exposed to the heat. "Residents living in these vulnerable areas are more likely to suffer heat stroke and other heat-related illnesses," Ren said. "Because of more vacant land and abandoned structures, [these neighborhoods] retain more heat during the daytime and even experience higher overall temperatures at night, because the concrete absorbs heat and releases it slowly." Houston ranks among the top 10 hottest cities in the U.S., and Ren set out to understand why. Using more than 1,400 drone images and NASA satellite Landsat data, he mapped heat at a street-by-street level across seven sites, including residential neighborhoods, commercial strips and industrial zones. Each location had patterns of both above-average land surface temperatures and high social vulnerability, a measure for communities most at risk during disasters. "The type of surface on vacant land matters significantly," Ren said. "Lots with bare soil or gravel tend to have higher land surface temperatures than those covered with vegetation, though lower than heavily built-up areas." Houston alone contains roughly 45,000 acres of vacant land and 10,000 acres of abandoned buildings, according to the study. Even a small cluster of abandoned structures in industrial areas can raise nearby land temperature dramatically. Higher surface temperatures can make public spaces, like sidewalks and bus stops, dangerously hot. "Low-income people are sometimes forced to walk or bike in this extreme heat with zero shading, and over time, being exposed like this every summer is not healthy." Ren said heat absorbed by concrete and rooftops lingers into the night, raising risks of heat-related illness while forcing households to spend more on cooling. The city's power grid feels the strain too, as residents rely heavily on air conditioning to stay safe.
Could another poor water year spell disaster for the Colorado River? - The Colorado River is the lifeblood of the American Southwest, and it's no secret that it's under threat from increased demand and prolonged drought. However, what the seven states that rely on the river are going to do about it is still a mystery. That's because the compact that dictates how much water each state can draw from the river will end next year, and current negotiations appear to be going nowhere. Now, new analysis suggests that another bad winter could spell disaster for the entire Colorado River Basin. According to KUNC Public Radio's Colorado River Reporter, Alex Hager, the report's conclusions are dire. "Water could drop too low behind the dam that holds back Lake Powell, allowing it to flow through the hydropower turbines that generate electricity for millions of people across seven states," Hager said. "And if it drops even lower than that, it could go too low to pass through the dam at all, meaning that the water that flows into Lake Mead, the water that supplies Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Phoenix, would not be coming in the quantity that those cities expect it to be coming." Currently, officials representing each state and water district in the basin are in negotiations to determine the future of the Colorado River Compact, which governs the allocation of water from the river among jurisdictions. The current guidelines will expire in October 2026. And while federal officials are considering potential cuts to the amount of water each state can draw from the river, it remains unclear exactly what will happen. "The standing rules for managing water would revert to rules last written in the 1970s, when the water picture in the West looked a lot different," said Hager. "There was a lot more of it, and fewer people." However, Hager said that most remain optimistic that negotiators can reach a deal before time runs out. "There is a feeling that things could be resolved before the deadline, simply because many deals in the past have been forged in the eleventh hour," he said.
Millions rely on dwindling Colorado River—but are kept 'in the dark' about fixes, critics say -The Colorado River, which provides water across the Southwest, has lost about 20% of its flow in the last quarter-century, and its depleted reservoirs continue to decline. But negotiations aimed at addressing the water shortage are at an impasse, and leaders of environmental groups say the secrecy surrounding the talks is depriving the public of an opportunity to weigh in. Representatives of the seven states that depend on the river have been meeting regularly over the last two years trying to hash out a plan to address critical shortages after 2026, when the current rules expire. They meet in-person at offices and hotels in different states, never divulging the locations. The talks have been mired in persistent disagreement over who should have to cut back on water and by how much. "We need more transparency, and we need more accountability," said Kyle Roerink, executive director of the Great Basin Water Network. "I think if we had more of those things, we wouldn't be in the situation that we are currently in." Roerink and leaders of five other environmental groups criticized the lack of information about the stalled negotiations, as well as the Trump administration's handling of the situation during a news conference as they released a report with recommendations for solving the river's problems. Roerink said there is "a failure of leadership" among state and federal officials, and "everybody else is being left in the dark." Disagreements over how mandatory water cuts should be allotted have created a rift between two camps: the three downstream or lower basin states—California, Arizona and Nevada—and the four states in the river's upper basin—Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico. State officials have talked publicly about the spat, but much of the debate is happening out of the public eye. "This process is a backroom negotiation," said Zachary Frankel, executive director of the Utah Rivers Council. "We need to shift the governance of the Colorado River Basin ... back into the halls of democracy so that people can get engaged." Frankel said the limited details that have filtered out of the negotiators' "secret backrooms" indicate officials are still debating water cuts far smaller than what's really needed to deal with the current shortage. He said the Southwest could face "serious water crashes" soon if the region's officials don't act faster to take less from the river. The Colorado River provides water for cities from Denver to Los Angeles, 30 Native tribes and farming communities from the Rocky Mountains to northern Mexico. It has long been overused, and its reservoirs have declined dramatically amid unrelenting dry conditions since 2000. Near Las Vegas, Lake Mead, the nation's largest reservoir, is now just 32% full. Upstream from the Grand Canyon, Lake Powell, the country's second-largest reservoir, is at 29% of capacity. "We're using a third too much water. There's no accountability for the fact that the reservoirs are disappearing," Frankel said. "And we're not even looking at what the drop in future flows is going to be from climate change."
Iraq’s Amerli reservoir dries up: Worst drought in a century - Amerli in Saladin, northern Iraq, is suffering its worst drought in over 100 years after the district’s only reservoir dried up, leaving dozens of villages without drinking water, a local official said on Friday. Maytham Nouri, the district administrator, told Shafaq News that the Amerli lake had become “entirely empty for the first time in history,” warning of an imminent humanitarian and environmental disaster without urgent governmental support. Farmers said the collapse of water supplies has wiped out plans to sow wheat and barley this winter, forcing residents to depend on artesian wells for household use. "The halt to farming and livestock could cause losses worth millions of dollars and fuel higher food prices." Iraq is already ranked by the United Nations among the world’s five most climate-vulnerable countries. Years of record heat, poor rainfall, and declining river flows from neighboring states have cut water volumes by as much as 70%, drying farmland and accelerating desertification.
Intense rain, landslides and potholes everywhere: How climate change is trashing Australia's roads - Australia has one of the world's longest road networks, covering almost 900,000 kilometers. More than 80% of it is rural or remote.It was hard and expensive enough to maintain this network before climate change began causing havoc. But the job of roadworkers, engineers and transport departments is getting much harder. As many drivers know, roads are suffering. Potholes are everywhere.Record flooding in 2023 destroyed a vital bridge at Fitzroy Crossing in Western Australia, causing chaos. In 2024, bushfires closed the Eyre Highway linking South Australia to WA, followed by floods not long after. With road links out of action, communities have been cut off for months. Climate change is a major cause of this accelerated deterioration. Extreme heat and bushfires are projected to do more damage in Australia's southern and eastern regions. Floods are projected to hit harder and more often in the continent's northern and eastern regions. The new National Climate Action Plan calls for upgrading Australia's transport networks so they can better withstand the changing climate. It won't be possible to climate-proof the whole network. Authorities will have to focus on keeping vital lifelines open. Queensland's roads are particularly vulnerable. The state has the largest road network of any state or territory, at around 180,000 kilometers.Two-thirds of these roads run through rural and remote regions, which makes monitoring and maintenance more difficult. Almost 40% of the state's roads (70,000 km) are built on black clay soils, which swell when wet and shrink when dry. Roads built on clay are highly susceptible to cracking, rutting and accelerated failure. Intense rainfall and flooding events are now a leading cause of road closures and pavement damage, isolating communities and disrupting freight routes. The floods this year in northern Queensland left supermarkets emptied anddisrupted industries such as agriculture and mining which rely on reliable freight connections.Short term, this means more emergency repairs and disruption. Longer term, it means faster deterioration, higher costs and shorter road lifespans. Extreme weather is driving up maintenance spending. In the aftermath of the 2022 floods in southeast Queensland, the state government allocated A$350 million to repair damaged roads. These costs are climbing fast. Transport authorities estimate the state had $8.6 billion in necessary but unfunded road renewal and maintenance as of 2023–24, up from $7.8 billion a year earlier. The challenge is most acute at a local government level. Queensland's councils are responsible for about three-quarters of the state's road network. They also have the least financial resources to draw on. Many report significant maintenance backlogs. As a result, councils often resort to reactive maintenance such as patching up roads after floods. But fixing after failure drives up the lifetime cost of a road, increases disruption to traffic and leaves infrastructure exposed to the next extreme event.. Remote communities face even greater upheaval. Many remote towns in northern Queensland have no alternative routes. If one road is closed, the town can be cut off from food, fuel, water, services and emergency responses. We already have stronger, greener ways of building roads. Foamed bitumen roads are much more flood resistant. Crumb rubber from old car and truck tires makes road surfaces tougher. Old asphalt pavement and waste glass can be used as recycled aggregate for new roads, cutting waste and emissions. New intelligent road rollers use real-time monitoring to compact the layers of new roads more evenly, boosting quality. These methods haven't been widely taken up due to cost concerns, supply chain challenges in regional areas and a reluctance to try new things. Policymakers could speed up uptake by setting new procurement rules for stronger, more resilient and low-carbon materials. If nothing is done, the damage will only intensify. Traditional methods will stop working.
Ninth home collapses in Buxton’s Outer Banks, North Carolina - YouTube videos - The ninth home collapsed along the Outer Banks area in Buxton, North Carolina on October 3, 2025, as debris clean-up continues with multiple homes still at risk of collapse. Ninth home collapses at Buxton's Oute banks, North Carolina on October 3, 2025. Ninth home collapses at Buxton's Outer banks, North Carolina on October 3, 2025. Credit: Cape Hatteras National Seashore The ninth home in Buxton’s Outer Banks collapsed on October 3 due to erosion from waves generated by hurricanes Humberto and Imelda. The home located at the 23 000 block of G.A. Kohler Court fell into the ocean just before 18:00 LT in on October 3, according to officials from Cape Hatteras National Seashore. This collapse occurred farther north than any of the previous eight, roughly 40 km (25 miles) up the Outer Banks in Rodanthe. “Seashore visitors should stay away from the collapsed house site and use caution for miles to the south of the site, particularly between G.A. Kohler Court and Atlantic Drive, due to the presence of potentially hazardous debris,” park officials said. Around two dozen crews have been dispatched to Buxton for cleanup, as several other homes remain at risk of collapse as surf continues to erode their foundations. Wave heights reached up to 4.2 m (14 feet) on October 2. Years of coastal erosion, combined with the offshore passage of hurricanes Humberto and Imelda, led to the most recent collapses. YouTube video Since 2020, 21 privately owned beach homes have collapsed within Cape Hatteras National Seashore. Nine of those collapses occurred in Buxton since mid-September. The remaining 12 took place in Rodanthe, with the most recent before the latest collapse recorded in November 2024, according to Seashore records.
Flood insurers look to fill void after federal program lapses - Neptune Insurance Holdings CEO Trevor Burgess recently joined a Wall Street TV program to express an ebullient message: “It’s not every day that you can go public and have your main competitor closed for business.”Trevor Burgess was referring to the National Flood Insurance Program, which is operated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and provides more than 90 percent of flood coverage in the United States. The program is neither writing nor renewing policies since it lapsed on Sept. 30, and its reactivation is currently caught up in Congress’ infighting over the government shutdown. The NFIP’s lapse could represent a unique opportunity for private insurers to expand in a market that’s long been dominated by the taxpayer-subsidized federal program — an expansion that lawmakers and federal officials have encouraged. Flood insurance, which is sold separately from homeowners’ insurance, is considered increasingly crucial as climate change raises sea levels and intensifies rainstorms. Yet fewer than 5 percent of U.S. households have coverage, which has left many uninsured households in financial ruin after their property is flooded.
North Dakota tornado was the first at EF5 strength in a dozen years - A deadly tornado that tore across North Dakota this summer has been upgraded to an EF5 with winds over 200 mph, the strongest classification of tornado and the first on American soil in 12 years, meteorologists said Monday. The tornado on June 20 in Enderlin caused significant damage across the region and killed three people. The tornado touched down on the ground for just over 12 miles (19 kilometers), and at its largest, was 1.05 miles wide. Meteorologists from the National Weather Service in Grand Forks estimated that the tornado had winds in excess of 210 mph, according to a Weather Service analysis released on Monday. The 1999 Bridge-Creek Moore tornado in Oklahoma holds the record of the strongest winds ever recorded at 321 mph. Since the National Weather Service began using Enhanced Fujita scale in 2007, there have been 10 tornadoes categorized as EF5. “In the last kind of 12 years, there’s been several strong tornadoes that have come close, but there haven’t been known damage indicators at that time to support the EF5 rating,” said Melinda Beerends, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Grand Forks. “It’s hard sometimes to get tornadoes to hit something.” This summer’s tornado destroyed farmsteads, tipped over fully-loaded rail cars, toppled transmission towers and uprooted trees. One tanker car had been flung far from the rest. Meteorologists from the Grand Forks office headed into the field the following morning to examine the damage. It usually takes from days to weeks to determine the strength of a tornado by its wind speed, which meteorologists do by examining the damage to buildings and trees. This tornado took much longer to analyze because the damage it inflicted on the rail cars was unusual. The initial estimate for the tornado in the days afterward was an EF3. The tornado was caused by warm, moist air in place which is ripe for a thunderstorm, Beerends said. But there was also a high amount of wind shear, which is a variation of wind speed and direction that created the conditions for the tornado. Two men and a woman were killed at two locations near Enderlin, about 40 miles (65 kilometers) southwest of Fargo. Thousands of homes lost power during the storm. One farmstead had its foundation swept clean, with just the basement remaining and debris scattered downwind.
Hurricane Priscilla forecast to reach Category 2 strength this week - Hurricane Priscilla formed south of Mexico on October 5,2025. As of October 6, it is forecast to reach Category 2 strength this week as it moves offshore and parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur, through the earlier part of week. Hurricane Priscilla formed as the 10th hurricane of the 2025 eastern Pacific hurricane season at around 14:00 MST (21:00 UTC) on October 5. At 02:00 MST (09:00 UTC) on October 6, the storm was located about 395 km (245 miles) south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, and 690 km (430 miles) south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Priscilla’s maximum sustained winds were 140 km/h (85 mph), with higher gusts, and the system was moving north-northwest at 7 km/h (5 mph), with an estimated minimum central pressure of 977 hPa. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 65 km (40 miles) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 315 km (195 miles). A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita, Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. The storm is forecast to continue moving north-northwest and to strengthen further over the next few days. Priscilla’s center is expected to remain offshore, moving parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur through the early to middle part of this week. The system is expected to become a category 2 hurricane and could approach major hurricane status within the next couple of days before it starts to weaken by midweek. Outer rainbands from Priscilla will continue to produce heavy rainfall across portions of southwestern Mexico through October 6. Rainfall totals of 50–100 mm (2–4 inches), with isolated maximum amounts up to 150 mm (6 inches), are expected across coastal portions of Michoacán and far western Guerrero. Additional rainfall of 25–75 mm (1–3 inches) is forecast across Colima, western Jalisco, and coastal Guerrero, posing a risk of flash flooding in areas of higher terrain. Swells generated by Priscilla have begun affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and are expected to reach west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California Peninsula on October 6, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Priscilla nears major hurricane status in Pacific as new tropical storm swirls in the Atlantic (AP) — Hurricane Priscilla neared Category 3 status on Tuesday in the Pacific as a new tropical storm strengthened in the Atlantic, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Just off the west coast of Mexico, Priscilla was spinning with maximum sustained winds around 105 mph (169 kph) and moving northwest at 9 mph (15 kph). It was centered Tuesday night about 185 miles (295 kilometers) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, forecasters said. On Tuesday, outer bands of the hurricane were extending across the Mexican state of Baja California Sur. In the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Jerry maintained top winds of 50 mph (85 kph) early Wednesday. It was centered about 950 miles (1,530 kilometers) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands while moving west-northwest at 23 mph (37 kph). Forecasters said Jerry is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in another day or two. Swells from Jerry were expected Thursday to reach the Leeward Islands with the core of the storm moving near or north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. A tropical storm watch was issued for Barbuda and Anguilla, St. Barthelemy and St. Martin and Sint Maarten. In the Pacific, a tropical storm watch was in place for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lazaro due to Hurricane Priscilla. The government of Baja California Sur canceled classes at all educational centers starting Tuesday in Los Cabos and La Paz as a preventive measure. It also set up a dozen shelters in Los Cabos for people living in areas at risk. Parts of southwestern Mexico could get up to 4 inches (10 centimeters) of rain from Priscilla through Wednesday, bringing a flash flooding risk to Michoacán and Colima states, forecasters said. Priscilla was forecast to weaken starting Wednesday, the hurricane center said. A major hurricane is defined as Category 3 or higher and wind speeds of at least 111 mph (180 kph). Swells from Priscilla were reaching the coast of Mexico. Life threatening surf and rip currents were likely, forecasters said. Farther out in the Pacific, Tropical Storm Octave was weakening about 750 miles (1,205 kilometers) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Its maximum sustained winds were 45 mph (75 kph) and it was moving east-southeast at 7 mph (11 kph).
Category 2 Hurricane Priscilla creating dangerous surf along the Mexican coast - Hurricane Priscilla is maintaining Category 2 strength on October 7, 2025, and is producing dangerous surf conditions along the Mexican coast. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lázaro. Satellite image of Hurricane Priscilla as of 00:00 UTC on October 8, 2025. At 23:00 MST (06:00 UTC) on October 7, 2025, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that Hurricane Priscilla was centered about 635 km (395 miles) west of Cabo Corrientes and 295 km (185 miles) southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The storm maintained Category 2 intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h (105 mph) and gusts to 205 km/h (125 mph). Minimum central pressure was estimated at 969 hPa. Priscilla was moving northwest at 15 km/h (9 mph). Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 75 km (45 miles) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds reached 315 km (195 miles). Satellite loop of Hurricane Priscilla on October 6, 2025. Priscilla is forecast to continue moving roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur for the next two days before turning northward over cooler waters. Some additional strengthening is possible, and the hurricane could reach major intensity before gradually weakening later in the week. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Cabo San Lázaro. Authorities advised residents to monitor official updates and prepare for possible tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rain. Municipal officials in Los Cabos and La Paz suspended classes and opened temporary shelters in low-lying and coastal areas.Large swells generated by Priscilla are impacting the coasts of southwestern and west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. These swells are expected to create life-threatening surf and rip currents through the week. Maritime operations and recreational activities along affected coastal zones are discouraged until conditions improve. Rainfall totals of 25–50 mm (1–2 inches) with localized amounts up to 100 mm (4 inches) are forecast for southern Baja California Sur and portions of west-central Mexico. These amounts may produce flash flooding and landslides in mountainous terrain.
Nearly 30 people have died in Mexico due to heavy rains - Authorities said that heavy rainfall in Mexico left at least 27 dead and many more missing. The downpours caused landslides and cut power to some municipalities, and rivers burst. Civil protection authorities of Hidalgo State reported 16 deaths, and that at least 1,000 homes as well as hundreds of schools were affected. Alejandro Armenta, the governor of Puebla State, said that at least nine deaths had occurred due to incidents like landslides. Another five people were reported missing. Authorities in Veracruz reported two additional deaths. In a recent post, President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that "we are working to help the population and open roads as well as restore electrical service." She posted photos of emergency workers carrying supplies while they wade knee-deep through flooded streets. The Navy released a video showing an officer looking for people stranded in Poza Rica. Heavy rains and flooding along the Cazones River had submerged much of Veracruz. The Ministry of Defense said that it has deployed more than 5,400 personnel in order to monitor, evacuate and clean-up affected areas. While storms Raymond, Priscilla and other tropical systems have been dumping heavy rains along the western Pacific coast of Mexico and on the Baja California Peninsula.
Predecessor rain event (PRE) from Hurricane Priscilla to bring multi-day rainfall to the Southwestern U.S. - A predecessor rain event (PRE) associated with Hurricane Priscilla is forecast to produce sustained rainfall across the Southwestern United States, particularly Arizona and New Mexico, between October 9 and 11, 2025. Satellite image of Hurricane Priscilla as of 00:00 UTC on October 8, 2025. PRE refers to a period of heavy rainfall that develops well ahead of a tropical cyclone, often hundreds or even more than a thousand kilometers from the storm’s center. Predecessor rain events occur when tropical moisture from the cyclone interacts with existing mid-latitude weather systems, such as a frontal boundary or an upper-level trough. In this setup, warm, moisture-laden air from the tropics is drawn northward and lifted by the jet stream or a low-pressure system already present over the region. The result is a band of sustained, sometimes intense rainfall, which can persist for one to two days before the main storm’s arrival. Although the tropical cyclone itself may remain far offshore or take a different track, the PRE can still lead to significant hydrological impacts. Prolonged precipitation can saturate soils, elevate river levels, and increase the risk of flash flooding, particularly in mountainous or urban areas. According to the Center of Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), inland moisture transport shows integrated water vapor (IWV) > 44 mm, with ascent enhanced beneath an equatorward jet-entrance region. This configuration is expected to maintain widespread precipitation.Heavy rain and flood risk for Arizona and New Mexico as tropical moisture from Priscilla and Raymond arrives - Back-to-back tropical storms — Priscilla and Raymond — are forecast to channel deep tropical moisture into the U.S. Southwest between October 10 and 14 2025, causing a multi-day rain event and creating an elevated flash-flood risk across Arizona and New Mexico. A predecessor rain event (PRE) associated with Tropical Storm Priscilla is forecast to deliver the first wave of tropical moisture into the U.S. Southwest from late October 9 (LT) and continuing through October 11. CW3E West-WRF ensembles show widespread precipitation totals of 40–75 mm (1.5–3 inches), with isolated totals of over 100 mm (4 inches) along the Mogollon Rim and mountainous areas of central Arizona and south-western New Mexico. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed central Arizona under a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall, with surrounding slight and marginal-risk areas extending into New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado. Forecast accumulations exceed 50 mm (2 inches) over a broad region from Phoenix to Durango based on the latest QPF fields. After the first phase, Tropical Storm Raymond is expected to approach the Mexican coast by late October 11 and inject additional tropical moisture northward, starting a second rainfall episode from October 12 to 14. Model ensembles forecast rainfall totals of 25–50 mm (1–2 inches) across the same general region, with locally higher amounts in the White Mountains and San Juan Mountains. Hydrologic outlooks from the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) indicate rising river stages across southern Arizona and western New Mexico. While most gauges are forecast to remain below flood stage, the Gila River near Maricopa and tributaries in southeastern Arizona could approach or exceed action levels if both systems produce near-maximum totals. Further north, a separate Pacific trough is forecast to draw a high-intensity integrated vapor transport (IVT > 01400 kg m-1 s-1) plume into California and the Pacific Northwest during October 15–17. The strongest orographic precipitation is expected along the Sierra Nevada and Coast Ranges, with moderate precipitation extending into the Great Basin. The combined events will bring short-term drought relief across portions of the Southwest, with some watersheds being forecast to receive up to 30% of their annual precipitation over a single week.
Tropical Storm Jerry forms, forecast to become a hurricane near the northern Leeward Islands - Tropical Storm Jerry formed over the tropical central Atlantic at 11:00 AST (15:00 UTC) on Tuesday, October 7, 2025, and is forecast to become a hurricane before passing near the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday, October 9 and 10, with a possible turn northward into the west-central Atlantic this weekend. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Jerry as of 2040 UTC on October 7, 2025. At the time, the storm was located 2 120 km (1 315 miles) east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Maximum sustained winds were 75 km/h (45 mph) with higher gusts, and the minimum central pressure was 1 006 hPa. Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 220 km (140 miles) from the center. Jerry was moving west at 39 km/h (24 mph) on the south-southwest flank of a strong subtropical ridge. According to the NHC discussion, environmental conditions near Jerry are favorable for intensification during the next 48–72 hours: upper-level winds are light, sea-surface temperatures are warm, and surrounding moisture is abundant. Jerry is forecast to take a west-northwestward turn while slowing down as it approaches the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge. The system is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday or Thursday, October 8 or 9. It will then pass near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. Model guidance shows a deep-layer trough amplifying over the western Atlantic late in the week, expected to erode the ridge and cause Jerry to turn northward over the west-central Atlantic this weekend; however, the NHC notes uncertainty in the timing and exact latitude of recurvature. No coastal watches or warnings were in effect at the time of the advisory, but the NHC stated that Tropical Storm Watches could be required for portions of the northern Leeward Islands later the same day or night.
Typhoon Bualoi death toll in Vietnam tops 50 - The death toll from Typhoon Bualoi in Vietnam rose above 50, the government said Friday, with more than a dozen people still missing days after the storm triggered widespread flooding. Bualoi slammed into central Vietnam late Sunday with winds of 130 kilometers (80 miles) per hour, and lingered over land for almost 12 hours. Heavy rain from the storm inundated the capital Hanoi this week, and floods and landslides damaged more than 200,000 homes, public infrastructure and farmland across the country. The environment ministry estimated damage from Bualoi may cost up to $600 million. The storm and its aftermath have killed at least 51 people, while 14 others are missing, the ministry said in its latest update on Friday. Landslides killed several people in the country's northern mountainous areas, and disrupted access to tourist attractions like Sapa and Mu Cang Chai. Images on state and social media showed roads completely destroyed and massive rocks and earth blocking mountain passes. Weather forecasters said floodwaters had begun receding, but warned Typhoon Matmo—now approaching the northern Philippines—may impact the north of Vietnam early next week. Matmo would be the 11th storm this year to hit Vietnam, a country that typically records up to 10 annually. Bualoi killed 37 people and forced 400,000 to flee their homes in the Philippines last week. Human-driven climate change is turbocharging extreme weather events like typhoons, making them ever more deadly and destructive. Between January and August, storms caused Vietnam $371 million in damage, triple the amount over the same period last year, the General Statistics Office said. Typhoon Yagi killed hundreds of people in Vietnam last September and caused economic losses worth $3.3 billion.
Typhoon Matmo unleashes extreme rainfall and record river crests in northern Vietnam - Record floods inundated northern Vietnam from October 7 to 8, 2025, after Typhoon Matmo brought up to 450 mm (17.7 inches) of rain across the region. Water levels on the Bang, Thuong, Trung, and Cau rivers exceeded records set in 1986 and 2024, submerging large areas of Thai Nguyen, Lang Son, Cao Bang, and Bac Ninh provinces. At least eight people died, and five remain missing. The military deployed 30 000 personnel and thousands of boats as entire neighborhoods were left underwater.
- Record floods hit northern Vietnam from October 7 to 8 2025 as Typhoon Matmo brought up to 500 mm (19.7 inches) of rain, breaking river records set in 1986 and 2024.
- The Cau River in Thai Nguyen peaked at 29.9 m (98.1 feet) and the Thuong River in Lang Son at 24.31 m (79.8 feet) – both exceeded previous highs by more than 1 m (3.3 feet).
- By October 8, at least eight people were confirmed dead and five were missing; more than 15 700 houses were affected, 14 600 ha (36 080 acres) of crops inundated, 530 cattle and 96 000 poultry lost.
- Over 600 transport routes were damaged by landslides or washouts, and the Bac Khe 1 hydropower dam partially failed, causing USD 1.9 million in losses.
- The military deployed 30 000 personnel, thousands of boats, and helicopters to assist rescue operations across flooded northern provinces.
Water levels on the Bang, Thuong, Trung, and Cau rivers exceeded historical benchmarks set in 1986 and 2024, submerging large areas of Thai Nguyen, Lang Son, Cao Bang, and Bac Ninh provinces. As of October 8, at least eight people are confirmed dead and five are missing after widespread flooding inundated entire neighborhoods across northern provinces. At 03:00 LT on October 8 (20:00 UTC, October 7), the Cau River at Gia Bay station in Thai Nguyen peaked at 29.9 m (98.1 feet), surpassing the previous record of 28.81 m (94.5 feet) set during Typhoon Yagi in 2024 by 1.09 m (3.6 feet). This marks the highest level observed since records began in 1986. In Lang Son province, the Thuong River at Huu Lung station reached 24.31 m (79.8 feet), exceeding the historical level by 1.77 m (5.8 feet), while the Cau Son station in Bac Giang recorded 18.13 m (59.5 feet), 2.13 m (7.0 feet) above the highest warning level. At Phu Lang Thuong, water reached 7.46 m (24.5 feet), 1.16 m (3.8 feet) above warning level 3. In Cao Bang province, the Bang River exceeded the historic flood of 1986 late on October 7 before slowly receding. The Trung River in Lang Son was forecast to peak nearly 2 m (6.5 feet) above its 1986 record. The Vietnam National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) reported total rainfall of 200–400 mm (7.9–15.7 inches) across wide areas of northern Vietnam, with localized accumulations surpassing 500 mm (19.7 inches) in mountain and midland zones. The heaviest rainfall occurred between the evening of October 7 and the early hours of October 8, as Typhoon Matmo’s remnants interacted with the northeast monsoon and the region’s complex topography. Moist inflow from the Gulf of Tonkin enhanced convergence along the Red River tributaries, sustaining intense orographic precipitation for more than 24 hours.
More than 60 dead as intense rainfall hits Nepal and northern India – video -At least 63 people were killed after days of intense monsoon rainfall triggered widespread landslides and flash floods across Nepal and northern India between October 3 and 5, 2025. Nepal’s eastern Ilam District suffered the heaviest toll, with 35 deaths, as rivers, including the Koshi, exceeded danger levels. Dozens remain missing, and thousands were forced to evacuate as authorities opened all 56 sluice gates of the Koshi Barrage and suspended air and road traffic. Days of intense monsoon rainfall across eastern Nepal and parts of northern India triggered deadly landslides and flash floods between October 3 and 5, killing at least 63 people and leaving dozens missing. In Nepal, at least 47 fatalities were confirmed, most of them in Ilam District, where multiple slope failures buried homes and blocked roads. Additional casualties occurred in Panchthar, Dhankuta, and Sindhuli districts. Three people were killed by lightning, and nine remain missing. According to the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM), rainfall exceeded 250 mm (9.8 inches) in a 24-hour period across several hilly districts. The Koshi River rose above the danger level, prompting the opening of all 56 sluice gates at the Koshi Barrage to prevent overflow into downstream settlements. Hydrological stations along the Gandaki and Bagmati basins also recorded high discharge levels. The Ministry of Home Affairs issued emergency alerts in Bagmati, Gandaki, Lumbini, and Madhesh provinces, warning of further landslides and flash flooding due to saturated soils. Nepal Army and Armed Police Force units were deployed to assist in search and rescue operations, but many remote communities remained inaccessible after roads were washed out or buried under debris. The Araniko Highway, connecting Kathmandu with the Chinese border, and sections of the BP Highway, linking the eastern and central regions, were closed due to multiple landslides. Hundreds of houses were destroyed or submerged, and thousands of residents were displaced to temporary shelters established by local authorities. Domestic flights were suspended, and international departures from Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu faced temporary delays. . YouTube video Across the border, India’s Darjeeling District reported at least seven fatalities from landslides, with two people missing. Additional deaths were confirmed in Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, where flash floods swept through mountain valleys.
Tornado strikes Rangpur’s Gangachara upazila, destroying over 1 200 houses, Bangladesh - - A brief tornado struck five unions of Gangachara Upazila in Rangpur District, northern Bangladesh, at around 07:00 LT (01:00 UTC) on October 5, 2025, amid continuous rainfall. The event damaged about 1 200 thatched houses, uprooted hundreds of trees, and injured several residents, according to local authorities.Gangachara Upazila Nirbahi Officer (UNO) Mahmud Hasan Mridha said the tornado occurred during heavy rains at around 07:00 LT on October 5, destroying or damaging approximately 1 200 houses and uprooting hundreds of trees across the five unions.Field observations conducted by Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS) reporters showed widespread structural damage to thatched and tin-roofed homes. In Alambiditor union, resident Md Nazmul Amin said the storm destroyed his house and injured his nine-year-old son, who was later admitted to Rangpur Medical College Hospital.Nohali Union Parishad Chairman Md Ashraf Ali estimated that about 400 houses in his union were destroyed, while Alambiditor Union Administrator Aftabuzzaman Chayan reported about 300 houses damaged.While the tornado caused structural and environmental damage, initial agricultural surveys confirmed that the Aman rice plants remained intact, likely due to their short height and water-saturated soil providing stability against the wind.A detailed damage assessment is underway.
Landslide kills at least 15 as heavy rain triggers slope collapse in Bilaspur, Himachal Pradesh - 2 YouTube videos - A rain-triggered landslide struck a passenger bus near Bhallu Bridge in Jhandutta subdivision, Bilaspur district, Himachal Pradesh, at around 18:30 LT on October 7, 2025, killing at least 15 people and injuring several others. The bus, carrying around 30 to 35 passengers, was buried under debris after a hillside collapsed amid intense rainfall. Rescue teams from the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and local authorities are searching for survivors as operations continue overnight. District officials confirmed at least 15 fatalities, with the number expected to rise as operations continue. Three people, including two children, were rescued alive and hospitalized. The vehicle reportedly carried 30 to 35 passengers at the time of the collapse. The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), supported by state and district emergency services, has deployed heavy machinery to remove boulders and mud obstructing the road. Steep terrain and continuing rain are hindering excavation and visibility. The Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) announced an ex-gratia of INR 200 000 (USD 2 400) for each deceased and INR 50 000 (USD 600) for the injured. The Ministry of Home Affairs stated that specialized NDRF teams reached the site shortly after midnight to support ongoing rescue efforts. Meteorological records from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) show Bilaspur received 12.7 mm (0.5 inches) of rain on October 7, substantially higher than its daily normal, following consecutive wet days across Himachal Pradesh. The report, issued just after midnight (LT) on October 8, noted widespread light-to-moderate rainfall with localized heavy bursts during the 24-hour period. Such saturation of surface layers contributes to slope failures typical of Himachal’s post-monsoon terrain. The region remains highly prone to landslides during post-monsoon instability phases. According to the Geological Survey of India, Bilaspur and adjoining Mandi districts lie within Landslide Susceptibility Zones II–III, characterized by weathered shale and steep road cuts that often fail after intense rainfall. Local authorities have temporarily suspended heavy-vehicle traffic along the Jhandutta–Ghumarwin route and advised residents to avoid unstable slopes. The state disaster management department has warned of additional slope failures if rainfall continues.
Storm Amy leaves 3 dead in Ireland and France, thousands without power – videos - At least 3 people have been reported dead due to the record-breaking Storm Amy that swept across Northern Europe through the weekend, causing hundreds of thousands of power outages in multiple countries, including Ireland, the UK, France, and Norway. As of October 6, 2025, restoration efforts continue, with thousands still without power in the affected regions. Storm Amy (known as Detlef in Germany) became the first named storm of the 2025/26 European windstorm season on October 1. The storm has since claimed at least three lives and caused widespread damage across northern Europe, leaving hundreds of thousands without power at its peak. A man in his 40s was reported dead in Letterkenny, County Donegal, Ireland, at around 16:15 local time (LT) on October 3 due to a weather-related incident, according to the Gardaí (Irish police), reported the BBC. France’s northern coast recorded its strongest winds during the storm, with gusts reaching up to 131 km/h (81 mph) along the coast and 110 km/h (68 mph) inland. Two fatalities were reported in France on October 4. A 48-year-old man drowned in Étretat after going swimming and could not be rescued due to stormy conditions. Another fatality occurred in Aisne on the same day after a tree branch fell on a car, killing the 25-year-old driver and seriously injuring another passenger, who was hospitalized. The storm injured multiple people as it swept across northern Europe, causing over 500 000 power outages in Ireland, the United Kingdom (UK), Norway, Sweden, and France. Amy provisionally broke the record for the lowest pressure in October in the UK after its minimum central pressure dropped to 947.9 hPa at Baltasound, Shetland, on October 4. The storm began affecting northern Scotland on October 3, with winds reaching 96 mph (155 km/h) in parts of the region by October 4. Over 12 000 customers across Scotland remained without power as of October 6, with over 75 000 restorations completed since October 3. Meanwhile, Network Rail warned of ongoing disruptions to rail services as teams worked to clear fallen trees and debris and repair damage to overhead lines. In Northern Ireland, a gust of 92 mph (148 km/h) was recorded in Magilligan on October 4, setting a provisional record for the strongest wind gust in October. Over 200 000 customers suffered power outages in Ireland and Northern Ireland, according to Euro News. The Education Authority (EA) told schools in the counties of Antrim, Fermanagh, Londonderry, and Tyrone to close at midday on October 4. Major flight disruptions were reported, with 13 being cancelled at Belfast International Airport and another at Derry Airport. The EA said 18 schools had reported incidents to them by midday on 4 October, which were mainly damaged roofs and fallen trees. By October 5, Northern Ireland Electricity said around 1 500 properties were still without power. Around 1 457 incidents, including 1 018 obstructions and over 350 floods, were reported in her department, according to the Minister for Infrastructure Liz Kimmins. In Belgium, Storm Amy caused damage as winds exceeded 100 km/h (62 mph). Authorities issued a Code Orange weather warning for the entire country on October 3. In Norway, the storm damaged more than 2 500 properties, ripping off roofs and causing wall collapses. Over 150 000 customers were left without power at its peak by October 4. More than 170 roads were closed across the country, and Ørland Municipality was left isolated due to cancelled ferries and closed roads.
Severe floods destroy nearly 10 000 homes, kill 22 in southern Chad - Flooding in southern Chad has killed 22 people and affected approximately 123 000 across 549 villages in Mandoul and Moyen-Chari provinces, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) on October 8, 2025. The floods destroyed more than 9 800 houses, injured 19 people, and displaced around 720 residents as heavy rains continued across the region. Heavy rainfall during late September and early October 2025 triggered extensive flooding across southern Chad, primarily in Mandoul and Moyen-Chari provinces. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), as of October 8, at least 22 people have died and 19 others were injured. The floods have displaced approximately 720 residents, destroyed more than 9 800 houses, and affected around 123 000 people in 549 villages. UN OCHA reported that the majority of damage occurred in low-lying rural communities where seasonal rivers overflowed after persistent rainfall. Local authorities, supported by humanitarian partners, are conducting impact assessments and delivering emergency assistance, including shelter materials and food supplies, to affected households. Floodwaters have damaged roads and farmland, isolating several villages in Mandoul Province. Regional authorities warned that continued rainfall may further hinder access to remote communities and delay aid delivery. Data from Météo Tchad indicate that southern Chad has experienced above-average rainfall since mid-September, consistent with broader late-season precipitation anomalies observed across the Sahel region. Although flooding is recurrent during this period, this year’s impacts are among the most severe recorded in recent seasons. UN OCHA stated that coordination with the Chadian Red Cross and local disaster committees is ongoing to identify additional needs and ensure the delivery of essential relief items. The floods in southern Chad are part of a wider regional pattern of intense late-season rainfall and river overflow affecting large areas of West and East Africa. Flooding continues across wide stretches of the continent, from the Atlantic coast to the Horn of Africa, as persistent heavy rainfall sustains swollen rivers and saturated ground conditions.
Hundreds stranded near Mount Everest after heavy snowfall hits Tibet – video - A severe snowstorm struck the Tibetan side of Mount Everest on October 4 and 5, 2025, trapping hundreds of trekkers and local guides at altitudes above 4 900 m (16 000 feet). The blizzard dumped up to 1 m (3.3 feet) of snow, isolating groups in the Karma Valley and Kangshung face region. More than 350 people have been rescued so far, while hundreds remain stranded as operations continue under difficult terrain and weather conditions. A powerful snowstorm hit the eastern slopes of Mount Everest during China’s National Day holiday, cutting off mountain access routes and leaving large groups of trekkers unable to descend. Authorities in the Tibet Autonomous Region report that between 800 and 1 000 people were initially trapped when heavy snowfall blocked trails and collapsed temporary shelters across the Kangshung face area. By the morning of October 6, approximately 350 people had been escorted to safety in Qudang Township, according to regional officials. Rescue teams remain in contact with additional groups still stranded at high altitude, and ground operations continue as weather gradually improves. Evacuation efforts are led by the Tibet Autonomous Region Emergency Command and Blue Sky Rescue Team, supported by local villagers using snow-clearing equipment to open blocked mountain roads and footpaths. The affected trekking zone lies above 4 900 m (16 000 feet) on the Kangshung Face, one of the least accessible approaches to Everest. Helicopter support remains limited by thin air and wind conditions. Several trekkers have shown symptoms of hypothermia and altitude-related illness, though no fatalities have been officially confirmed. Access to the Everest Scenic Area has been suspended, and ticket sales halted until rescue operations are completed. The snowstorm formed as a strong upper-level disturbance moved across southern Tibet. Preliminary analyses suggest it interacted with moist air over the southern Himalayas, producing intense convective snowfall and accumulation exceeding 1 m (3.3 feet) in parts of the Karma Valley region. Visibility dropped below 50 m (160 feet) during peak intensity before the system weakened on October 6 as it moved eastward toward Sichuan. On the Nepal side of the Himalayas, intense rainfall during the same period triggered landslides and flash floods, killing at least 60 people and damaging bridges and roads. The cross-border impact underscores the sensitivity of Himalayan weather systems to minor synoptic shifts during the post-monsoon transition.
Asia warms faster than rest of world, impacts continent - Asia is warming at twice the global average, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization. In the State of the Climate in Asia 2024, the report said that the warming trend between 1991–2024 was almost double that during the 1961–1990 period. As Asia experienced its warmest or second warmest year last year, it is causing “more extreme weather and posing serious threats to lives, ecosystems, and economies,” World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported. “The State of the Climate in Asia report highlights the changes in key climate indicators such as surface temperature, glacier mass and sea level, which will have major repercussions for societies, economies and ecosystems in the region,” Celeste Saulo, WMO Secretary-General, said. “Extreme weather is already exacting an unacceptably high toll.” With record-high sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves affecting large areas of Asia, sea level is on the rise in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and have “exceeded the global average, increasing risks for low-lying coastal areas,” the report said. Other widespread weather events in Asia include extreme rainfall, droughts, and destructive tropical cyclones. The report presented a case study from Nepal confirming that early warning systems and anticipatory action helped communities adapt and respond to climate risks. WMO calls for urgent investment in adaptation, early warnings, and climate-resilient development throughout the continent. “The work of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and their partners is more important than ever to save lives and livelihoods,” Saulo said.
La Niña Advisory Issued for Eastern Pacific Ocean -.The National Weather Service defines this advisory as temperatures that are at least point nine degrees Fahrenheit cooler than average in the last month, in this case, September. A La Niña advisory is now active for the Eastern Pacific Ocean, marking a shift from the La Niña watch that has been in place for the past couple of months.La Niña conditions occur when water temperatures in a specific part of the Eastern Pacific Ocean drop below normal levels. While a La Niña watch indicates that conditions are favorable for development, an advisory means those conditions are actively present and measurable.The National Weather Service defines this advisory based on specific criteria: temperatures must be at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than average over the last month, which in this case was September.Additionally, these below-average temperatures need to persist for six consecutive months total, and the atmosphere must show changes associated with La Niña patterns. These atmospheric changes have direct implications for Colorado's weather patterns. The state typically experiences warmer and windier conditions during fall under La Niña influence, with more complex weather changes expected during the winter months.
Climate change is messing with global wind speeds, impacting planetary health -Climate change is disturbing wind patterns across the globe in dramatic ways. And when combined with land-use change and desertification, these changes are spawning immense sand and dust storms that pose an ever-increasing risk to human health.These mega wind storms now affect an estimated 330 million people annually, exposing communities to harmful particulate matter, and sometimes including toxic materials. That’s according to a warning released by the World Health Organization and World Meteorological Organization earlier this year.“The frequency and severity of sand and dust storms is increasing, and it’s increasing globally,” says Aaron Cohen, principal scientist emeritus with the Health Effects Institute, who was part of an international team of scientists who recently advised that such storms present a “growing global health threat.”“[S]and and dust pollution travels over very long distances. And it isn’t just carrying dust and sand; it picks up all kinds of other pollutants,” Cohen explains. These intensifying storms have been linked to respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses, while also being directly linked to meningitis outbreaks in the Sahel region of Africa. According to a WMO and WHO analysis, around 3.8 billion people were exposed to dust levels exceeding the WHO’s safety threshold between 2018-2022; that’s a 31% increase from the 2.9 billion people exposed during 2003-2007. Concerningly, these sand and dust storms are now occurring in, and affecting, areas not previously considered sources of dust, “These [new] sources are usually close to where … people live,” she addsAs climate change escalates, these extreme events will likely increase and strengthen further, Basart notes, driven by short-lived convective storms that bring strong winds able to pick up huge amounts of sand and dust and carry it thousands of miles from the points of origin.“If the occurrence of these extreme convective storms is higher, the possibility to have more sand and dust storms is higher [too],” says Basart, adding that this potential rises when combined with intensifying land-use change, vegetation loss and soil degradation.Wind is “an environmental weather phenomenon. That means changes in the land and changes in the frequency of weather patterns can increase both their occurrence and intensity,” she explains.Sand and dust storms are, however, just one face of changing global winds, and offer just one example of how globally warmed wind patterns are impacting communities and public health across the planet.Climate change is supercharging ever more powerful and dangerous storm systems, ranging from supercell thunderstorms and derechos to hurricanes — all of which can include dangerously high wind speeds and occur in increasingly unexpected places.As the world’s climate gets hotter, warming ocean waters combine with warmer air that can hold much more moisture, to create stronger and more destructive precipitation events. Those conditions can also fuel intense winds.Research shows, for example, that hurricane wind speeds in the North Atlantic increased by 8.3 meters per second (nearly 30 kilometers per hour, or 19 miles per hour) on average between 2019 and 2023 due to climate change. This resulted in 40 hurricanes moving up a hurricane category — leading to more violent winds packing a more powerful punch able to kill or harm more people.
Massive system of rotating ocean currents in the North Atlantic is behaving strangely — and it may be reaching a tipping point -A massive system of rotating ocean currents in the North Atlantic is behaving extremely strangely, possibly because it is approaching a tipping point, a new analysis of clam shells shows.The North Atlantic subpolar gyre plays a key role in transporting heat to the Northern Hemisphere, and it is a part of a much larger network of ocean currents called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). But new evidence suggests the subpolar gyre has been losing stability since the 1950s, meaning the gyre's circulation could weaken substantially in the coming decades, researchers report in a study published today (Oct. 3) in the journal Science Advances."It's highly worrying," study lead author Beatriz Arellano Nava, a postdoctoral research fellow in physical geography at the University of Exeter in the U.K., told Live Science. "The subpolar gyre was recently acknowledged as a tipping element. We still need to understand more of the impacts of a subpolar gyre abrupt weakening. But what we know so far with the few studies that have been published is that it would bring more extreme weather events, particularly in Europe ... and also changes in global precipitation patterns."The North Atlantic subpolar gyre is a limb of the AMOC, but it can cross a tipping point independently from the giant network of currents. The climate outcomes for Europe, in particular, would be similar to those that would be triggered by a collapse of the AMOC, although they may be less intense because the AMOC is so much bigger, Arellano Nava said. However, "even if the consequences are not as catastrophic as for an AMOC collapse, a subpolar gyre weakening can bring substantial climate impacts," she warned.Previous research suggests the AMOC could collapse in the near future because its main engine — a cascade of dense water from the surface of the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans to the seabed — is failing. This cascade, which until now was made of extremely cold and salty water, is being diluted by meltwater and warmed by rising global temperatures, meaning the water in some places is no longer dense enough to sink properly. (Cold, salty water is denser than warmer, less-salty water.)A similar fate is expected for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre, which also relies on surface water sinking to the ocean floor. A cascade of dense water at the core of the gyre keeps the rotating currents moving, Arellano Nava said. But the system is also partly driven by wind, so a complete collapse is unlikely, she said.The North Atlantic subpolar gyre is a branch of the AMOC, so an AMOC collapse necessarily involves a dramatic weakening of the gyre. Conversely, a weakening of the subpolar gyre doesn't automatically mean that the AMOC has collapsed, Arellano Nava said."The subpolar gyre can weaken abruptly without the AMOC collapsing," she explained. "That's what happened during the transition into the Little Ice Age, which happened in the 13th and 14th centuries."The Little Ice Age, which lasted from about 1250 to the late 1800s, is one of the coldest periods on record in the Northern Hemisphere since the end of the last ice age. Average temperatures dropped by about 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius), freezing rivers and harbors across Europe and North America solid in the winter, triggering agricultural crises and broadly throwing medieval society into chaos, according to The New Yorker. Although factors like volcanic eruptions and reduced solar activity contributed to the initiation of the Little Ice Age, the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is thought to have played a major role in strengthening it. With climate change, conditions are dramatically different now than they were in the 13th century, so scientists don't know if another Little Ice Age is possible, Arellano Nava said. Nonetheless, it illustrates some of the climate impacts that could be coming our way.
Ocean Heatwaves Are Breaking Earth’s Hidden Climate Engine -New research shows that marine heatwaves can reshape ocean food webs, which in turn can slow the transport of carbon to the deep sea and hamper the ocean's ability to buffer against climate change. The study, published in the scientific journal Nature Communications on October 6, was conducted by an interdisciplinary team of researchers from MBARI, the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science, the Hakai Institute, Xiamen University, the University of British Columbia, the University of Southern Denmark, and Fisheries and Oceans Canada. To explore the impacts of marine heatwaves on ocean food webs and carbon flows, the research team combined multiple datasets that tracked biological conditions in the water column in the Gulf of Alaska for more than a decade. This region experienced two successive marine heatwaves during this time, one from 2013 to 2015 known as "The Blob," and another from 2019 to 2020. "The ocean has a biological carbon pump, which normally acts like a conveyor belt carrying carbon from the surface to the deep ocean. This process is powered by the microscopic organisms that form the base of the ocean food web, including bacteria and plankton," said the lead author, Mariana Bif. "For this study, we wanted to track how marine heatwaves affected those microscopic organisms to see if those impacts were connected to the amount of carbon being produced and exported to the deep ocean." The research team used information collected by the Global Ocean Biogeochemical (GO-BGC) Array, which has deployed hundreds of autonomous biogeochemical Argo (BGC-Argo) floats, which measure ocean conditions such as temperature, salinity, nitrate, oxygen, chlorophyll, and particulate organic carbon (POC) up and down the water column every five to 10 days. The team also looked at seasonal data from ship-based surveys that tracked plankton community composition, including pigment chemistry and sequencing of the environmental DNA (eDNA) from seawater samples collected during the Line P program carried out by Fisheries and Oceans Canada. The study found that marine heatwaves did impact the base of the ocean food web, and those impacts were connected to changes in the ways that carbon was cycled in the water column. However, the changes that occurred in the food web were not consistent across the two heatwaves. Under typical conditions, plant-like phytoplankton convert carbon dioxide to organic material. These microorganisms are the foundation of the ocean food web. When they are eaten by larger animals and excreted as waste, they transform into organic carbon particles that sink from the surface through the ocean's mesopelagic, or twilight, zone (200 to 1,000 meters, approximately 660 to 3,300 feet) and down to the deep sea. This process locks atmospheric carbon away in the ocean for thousands of years. During the 2013-2015 heatwave, surface carbon production by photosynthetic plankton was high in the second year, but rather than sinking rapidly to the deep sea, small carbon particles piled up approximately 200 meters (roughly 660 feet) underwater. During the 2019-2020 heatwave, there was record-high accumulation of carbon particles at the surface in the first year that could not be attributed to carbon production by phytoplankton alone. Instead, this accumulation was likely due to the recycling of carbon by marine life and the buildup of detritus waste. This pulse of carbon then sank to the twilight zone, but lingered at depths of 200 to 400 meters (roughly 660 to 1,320 feet) instead of sinking to the deep sea. The team attributed these differences in carbon transport between the two heatwaves to changes in phytoplankton populations. These changes cascaded through the food web, leading to a rise in small grazers who do not produce fast-sinking waste particles, so carbon was retained and recycled at the surface and in the upper twilight zone rather than sinking to deeper depths. This research demonstrated that not all marine heatwaves are the same. "Climate change is contributing to more frequent and intense marine heatwaves, which underscores the need for sustained, long-term ocean monitoring to understand and predict how future marine heatwaves will impact ecosystems, fisheries, and climate,"
Antarctica sees similar climate change effects as Greenland: Study The planet's warming climate is having effects in Antarctica that increasingly resemble those observed in the Arctic, meaning global sea levels could rise faster than previously predicted, Danish researchers warned on Friday. "Antarctica has long been considered more stable than the Arctic. But today, the picture has changed," Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) said in a statement. "Sea ice is disappearing. Temperatures are rising here too. Ice streams are accelerating and meltwater is penetrating the crevasses in the glaciers, causing them to slide faster toward the sea," she continued. Mottram warned that the development was "alarming, because the ice masses in the south have a dramatic potential in terms of rising sea levels here in the north." The Danish researcher, together with six colleagues, published an article in the journal Nature Geoscience on the "Greenlandification of Antarctica." The scientists, whose conclusions are based on satellite observations and climate models, use the term "Greenlandification" as a way to understand and "predict changes in the Antarctic environment through the lens of well-observed and understood changes in Greenland." "We use the experiences from Greenland as a kind of 'laboratory' to understand the same processes in Antarctica," Mottram explained. "Unfortunately, it appears that our experiences from home are becoming increasingly relevant." "The Antarctic cryosphere reflects a dynamic environment strongly influenced by regional atmosphere and ocean changes, more similar to Greenland than previously recognized," the researchers say in the article. If Greenland's ice sheet were to melt entirely, global sea levels would rise by about seven meters (23 feet). If this were to occur in Antarctica, the sea level rise could exceed 50 meters, DMI said.
Kronotsky volcano awakens after a century, sending ash up to 9 km (30 000 feet) a.s.l., Russia - Kronotsky volcano in Kamchatka, Russia, erupted at 03:50 UTC (15:50 LT) on October 4, 2025, ending a century of dormancy. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) reported an explosive eruption with an ash column reaching 9.2 km (30 180 feet) above sea level. Aviation Color Code was raised to Red. KVERT warns that additional ash emissions rising up to 15 km (49 200 feet) remain possible. An explosive eruption began at Kronotsky volcano, Kamchatka, at approximately 15:50 LT (03:50 UTC) on October 4, according to KVERT. The eruption produced a dense ash column reaching 9.2 km (30 180 feet) above sea level. Satellite analysis indicated that the ash cloud extended about 85 km (53 miles) to the south and southeast, according to Xinhua. KVERT raised the Aviation Color Code to Red, indicating that a hazardous eruption was underway with significant ash in the atmosphere. The agency stated that further explosive activity could eject ash to 15 km (49 200 feet) at any time. This marks the first confirmed eruption of Kronotsky in exactly 102 years. The previous eruptive activity occurred in February 1923, following a smaller event in November 1922. Both eruptions were characterized by explosive and effusive phases and were assigned a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2, indicating moderate explosive energy. Before these events, the last confirmed eruption occurred around 50 BCE and was also classified as explosive and effusive. The 1923 eruption produced lava flows and ash deposits on the southern flanks of the volcano. The Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IVS FEB RAS) reported that the 2025 eruption was detected through regional seismic signals and satellite data from Himawari-9, confirming its explosive onset. The initial ash plume height of 9.2 km was followed by fluctuating emissions between 5 km (16 400 feet) and 7 km (22 970 feet), typical of sustained explosive phases. On the same morning, Shiveluch volcano, about 290 km (180 miles) to the north, produced an ash emission up to 3 km (9 840 feet), according to KVERT. No ashfall or ground-level impacts have been reported in nearby settlements. Based on the current plume heights, the eruptive strength of the 2025 event is estimated at VEI 2–3, though no official classification has yet been issued. Monitoring continues under the supervision of KVERT and IVS FEB RAS. The symmetrical Kronotsky stratovolcano lies between the Pacific Ocean and Lake Kronotsky, the largest lake on the Kamchatka Peninsula. The lake formed during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene when extensive lava flows on the southern flank of the volcano dammed the Listvenichnaya River. The flanks of the massive volcano are deeply incised by radial valleys up to 200 m (656 feet) deep. A volcanic neck plugs the summit crater, and cinder cones are found on the northern, southeastern, and southwestern slopes.
Cascadia megathrust earthquake could trigger San Andreas fault When the tectonic subduction zone beneath the Pacific Northwest moves, it does so in dramatic fashion. Not only is ground shaking from a magnitude 9+ earthquake incredibly destructive, the event triggers tsunamis and landslides to compound the damage. Now, a new study in the Geosphere suggests the "really big one" could also trigger a major earthquake in California. "It's kind of hard to exaggerate what a M9 earthquake would be like in the Pacific Northwest," says Dr. Chris Goldfinger, a paleoseismologist at Oregon State University and lead author of the new study. "And so the possibility that a San Andreas earthquake would follow, it's movie territory." The United States' Pacific coast is defined by tectonic plate boundaries. To the north of Cape Mendocino, California, the Juan de Fuca plate is plunging beneath the continent in what geologists call a megathrust subduction zone. To the south, the Pacific and North American plates are grinding against each other, resulting in periodic earthquakes like the famously destructive 1906 San Francisco quake. The prospect that both could move at the same time redefines the concept of earthquake hazard in the western U.S. Coming to such a stunning conclusion wasn't the researchers' goal when they set out. In fact, the study came about because of a navigational error on a research cruise in 1999.. "We wound up off northern California," says Goldfinger. "When I woke up, I was pretty hot. But, once we were there, I thought, 'well, let's take a core here.'" When they examined that core, taken from the submarine Noyo Canyon off the California coast near Fort Bragg, they noticed something strange. Throughout the core, going back some 3,000 years, were a series of turbidites, or deposits from fast-moving underwater landslides called turbidity currents. Turbidites have characteristic layering, with coarser sediment grains at the bottom and smaller grains at the top. But unusually, many of the turbidites in both the Noyo Canyon core and the Cascadia cores were deposited in pairs. Once they'd used radiocarbon to date the turbidite events up and down the coast, they found another surprise. In cores taken both north and south of Cape Mendocino, more than half of the turbidites were deposited at the same time, within the error of radiocarbon dating. After ruling out other conceivable explanations, they were left with the realization that the first unit of each doublet in Noyo Canyon was a turbidity current set off by a large earthquake on the Cascadia megathrust. The second unit of the doublet, then, had to have been caused by movement on the nearby San Andreas. "A lightbulb went on and we realized that the Noyo channel was probably recording Cascadia earthquakes, and that at a similar distance, Cascadia sites were probably recording San Andreas earthquakes," says Goldfinger. "Well, what if? What if Cascadia went off and triggered a weak turbidity current near the San Andreas, and then the San Andreas went off some time later and triggered a very coarse, sandy deposit to come down. It would create this upside-down doublet stratigraphy." The timing between the earthquakes is uncertain, as the top turbidite could have eroded away sediment between the doublets. But, in some of the turbidite deposits, the researchers saw evidence that the second unit of the doublet was deposited within minutes or hours of the first, raising the possibility that almost the entire US Pacific coast could experience a major earthquake nearly simultaneously.
EPA steps into voluntary carbon market to block a climate project - EPA took the rare step of blocking a transaction in a voluntary carbon market when it stopped the planned destruction of a potent greenhouse gas to generate carbon credits. EPA’s move involved Halon 1301, which depletes ozone and worsens planetary warming at levels far greater than carbon dioxide but also is used for fire suppression.The carbon credits, if produced, would have been sold to one or more businesses wanting to offset their greenhouse gas emissions. EPA said it stepped in after learning of a plan in July to move 30,000 pounds of the U.S. supply of Halon 1301 to France for destruction. The destruction potentially would have been financed by at least one business that in return would receive carbon credits to offset its own greenhouse gas emissions.
Some carbon projects are actually harmful to climate: Study shows how to avoid that - An analysis of forest-based projects funded through the sale of carbon credits shows that 10% of them may have a net warming effect on the climate because of the way they alter Earth's albedo, or how much sunlight is reflected back into space. The study led by scientists at the Oregon State University College of Forestry also offers recommendations for how to avoid this unintended climate warming by incorporating albedo accounting into carbon crediting protocols. Additionally, the research indicates most projects come with comparatively minimal albedo consequences. The study is published in Nature Communications. The collaboration, which included scientists at Clark University and The Nature Conservancy, used new, publicly available data to factor in albedo changes when determining the climate impact of afforestation, revegetation and reforestation projects, commonly abbreviated as ARR. Afforestation refers to establishing a forest where there previously wasn't one. Led by OSU graduate student Lynn Riley and assistant professor Jacob Bukoski, researchers analyzed 172 projects across five continents supported by the Voluntary Carbon Market, a decentralized marketplace through which individuals, businesses and other organizations can purchase carbon credits from forestation projects. Many of these entities, but not all, then use these carbon credits to offset their greenhouse gas emissions. One carbon credit equals 1 ton (1,000 kilograms) of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere and sequestered in vegetation or soils. The projects in the study are rated to provide nearly 800 million tons of carbon dioxide emission reduction over the next century. "Carbon credits are created via established protocols that aim to ensure each credit corresponds to an actual climate benefit," said Riley, a scientist with the American Forest Foundation. "But so far, those protocols have only accounted for greenhouse gases while largely omitting the non-greenhouse gas factors that also can have a big impact on climate." One of those factors is albedo. Forestation sequesters atmospheric carbon dioxide through forest growth, but it also tends to decrease surface albedo, which means more solar energy is retained in the climate system (though when darker shrubs are reforested to woody savannas, albedo increases and additional solar energy is reflected away). The bottom line is that if a carbon mitigation project causes changes in albedo, those changes need to be accounted for alongside the carbon mitigation to determine the project's overall climate impact.
Plan to Reflect Sunlight to Power Solar Panels at Night Upsets Astronomers A startup that aims to keep solar farms running at night by reflecting sunlight from space has sparked controversy among astronomers whose work relies on dark skies. California-based Reflect Orbital recently requested a license from the Federal Communications Commission to launch a demonstration satellite in 2026, as its first step to creating a constellation that will redirect sunlight to precise locations on demand. The startup says it plans to launch dozens more over the next two years, with a goal of having about 4,000 satellites in orbit by 2030. Reflect Orbital’s plan has won the backing of investors that include Sequoia Capital and tech billionaire Baiju Bhatt. But while its mission is to extend the operating hours of solar farms, astronomers say doing so will come at the expense of their research. “Illuminating the ground at night with 4,000 bright satellites of this kind is potentially ruinous to state-of-the-art, ground-based optical astronomy,” says Anthony Tyson, the chief scientist of the Rubin Observatory, which will begin its sky survey next year. While Reflect Orbital says the redirected light from its first demonstration satellite will be similar to the illumination of a full moon, that would still be “blindingly bright” for sensitive astronomy cameras, Tyson says. “Like other large ground-based telescopes, Rubin relies on dark skies,” he adds. The American Astronomical Society launched a survey in August asking its members to weigh in on the effects of Reflect Orbital’s proposed satellite. Of more than 1,400 astronomers who submitted their responses so far, the majority said that their work would be impacted. Reflecting sunlight to the dark side of Earth may have other pitfalls. Scientists have documented how artificial light at night can disrupt the behavior of nocturnal species such as moths, frogs and bats, and degrade some of the benefits ecosystems provide. Light pollution can also have adverse effects on human health, though with many large solar farms located far from population centers, that may be less of a concern. Reflect Orbital has pledged that it will assess the environmental impact and potential effects on local communities at every location the company serves. “The cost, rapid deployability, and proven implementability” of solar and battery technology is also likely to make it a more viable pathway to generate clean energy compared with selling sunlight to solar farms, says Grant Hauber, a researcher at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. He adds that the environmental impact of satellite launches may also blunt the climate benefit. Reflect Orbital declined to specify the estimated cost of its service. The startup has yet to conduct a full life cycle emission assessment, but said its initial calculation shows that the emissions from its satellite launch can be “offset within weeks” by the additional clean solar power its system enables. The sky has become increasingly clogged with satellites launched by private companies, including SpaceX’s Starlink, Amazon.com Inc.’s Project Kuiper and Eutelsat OneWeb. Almost 2,700 satellites entered space in 2024 alone, according to a May report by the Satellite Industry Assn. The expanding swarms of satellites have negatively affected astronomical imaging and the potential impact of Reflect Orbital is particularly worrisome. That’s because unlike most existing satellites that are illuminated because the sun happens to shine on antennas or other reflective components, the climate tech startup’s satellites will intentionally put giant mirrors in space to reflect the sun.
Removing 50 Objects from Orbit Would Cut Danger From Space Junk in Half -- A new listing of the 50 most concerning pieces of space debris in low-Earth orbit is dominated by relics more than a quarter-century old, primarily dead rockets left to hurtle through space at the end of their missions."The things left before 2000 are still the majority of the problem," said Darren McKnight, lead author of a paper presented Friday at the International Astronautical Congress in Sydney. "Seventy-six percent of the objects in the top 50 were deposited last century, and 88 percent of the objects are rocket bodies. That's important to note, especially with some disturbing trends right now."The 50 objects identified by McKnight and his coauthors are the ones most likely to drive the creation of more space junk in low-Earth orbit (LEO) through collisions with other debris fragments. The objects are whizzing around the Earth at nearly 5 miles per second, flying in a heavily trafficked part of LEO between 700 and 1,000 kilometers (435 to 621 miles) above the Earth.An impact with even a modestly sized object at orbital velocity would create countless pieces of debris, potentially triggering a cascading series of additional collisions clogging LEO with more and more space junk, a scenario called the Kessler Syndrome.McKnight, a senior technical fellow at the orbital intelligence company LeoLabs, spoke with Ars before the paper's release. In the paper, analysts considered how close objects are to other space traffic, their altitude, and their mass. Larger debris at higher altitudes pose a higher long-term risk because they could create more debris that would remain in orbit for centuries or longer.Russia and the Soviet Union lead the pack with 34 objects listed in McKnight's Top 50, followed by China with 10, the United States with three, Europe with two, and Japan with one. Russia's SL-16 and SL-8 rockets are the worst offenders, combining to take 30 of the Top 50 slots. Here's the Top 10:
Trump, Meloni, Milei Say UN Climate Scam Must Go - -President Trump was not a happy camper when he stepped off a faulty escalator on his way to address the United Nations General Assembly recently. By the time he had finished speaking, many in that self-important assemblage were in an even worse mood. Trump was not the only world leader firing bullets into the UN’s climate and environmental policies that heretofore have been deemed sacrosanct but are now exposed as economy killers. While China is not subject to the UN’s meddling scrutiny, Europe and Africa (and the U.S.) are. While Trump devoted the bulk of his address to foreign policy and immigration issues, he eventually turned to focus on energy. Trump called renewables “a joke” and said they don’t work and are too expensive – and inadequate to fire up the plants modern nations need. Trump scolded the UN assemblage for not recognizing that China has been playing Western nations as fools by selling Chinese-made wind and solar while building coal and natural gas plants to power the bulk of their industrial sector. “They use coal, they use gas, they use almost anything, but they … sure as hell like selling the windmills.” Many countries in Europe are on the brink of destruction because of the green energy agenda, Trump said. Germany had gone far down the green energy path, shuttering coal and nuclear power plants while buying oil from Russia. But Germany’s new leadership has retreated towards fossil fuels and nuclear and opened a lot of different plants, energy plants, energy-producing plants, and they’re doing well, he added. The Germans have finally realized that going all green was a disaster – that “all green is all bankrupt. That’s what it represents,” he said. By contrast, the United Kingdom once was a great oil producer – thanks to North Sea oil. But today, oil production is so highly taxed that no developer, no oil company can go there, even though there is a tremendous amount of known oil and even more that has yet to be found. Trump was not done. He recalled that in 1982, the UN Environment Programme’s executive director predicted that by the year 2000 climate change would cause a global catastrophe as irreversible as any nuclear holocaust. Another UN official in 1989 said that within a decade entire nations would be wiped off the map by global warming. These same people just a few years earlier had claimed that global cooling would kill the world. To Trump, “climate change” is the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world. Stupid people at the UN and elsewhere made faulty predictions that left their nations with no chance for success. Nations that do not disavow the green scam will ultimately fail. The “carbon footprint,” he added, is “a hoax made up by people with evil intentions.” For example, President Obama talked a lot about carbon footprint when not flying to Hawaii to play a round of golf. He scoffed at Europe for bragging about reducing its carbon footprint by 37% – at the cost of factories closed, jobs lost, and downward-spiraling economies. Well, whoop-te-do! China now produces more carbon dioxide than the rest of the world’s developed nations combined – and global carbon dioxide has increased by 54%. Brutal UN-backed green energy policies, Trump said, have done nothing to clean the air but have instead redistributed manufacturing and industrial activity away from developed countries that follow insane environmental rules to polluting countries that ignore those rules – and they are the ones making a fortune. Meanwhile, European electricity bills are four to five times those in China and twice to three times higher than in the United States. The results are striking. While air conditioning has helped lower heat-related deaths in the U.S. to just 1,300 a year, Europe loses more than 175,000 annually to overheating – all in the name of pretending to stop the global warming hoax. It is high time, Trump said, to stop the scam. Nations must stop inflicting pain on their citizens while radically disrupting their own societies.Italian President Giorgia Meloni, after calling for widespread reform of “outdated” UN conventions,turned to assault “30 years of ‘blind-faith globalization’ [in which] things have not gone well, and things could get worse. ” The UN must halt its “unsustainable green plans in Europe and the West, which are leading to deindustrialization far soon than decarbonization.”Unsustainable environmentalism, she said, has destroyed the automobile sector in Europe, created problems and job losses in the U.S, and depleted knowledge while not improving the health of the planet (or its people). This is not to deny that the climate changes but to affirm reason, which calls for “gradual reform instead of ideological extremism” and keeping humanity at the center.Argentina’s President Javier Milei also accused the UN leadership of “overreach” and slammed the 80-year-old body as a “supranational model of governance led by international bureaucrats who seek to impose a particular way of life on the citizens of the world.” He urged member nations to reject the UN’s overreaches that they justify by proclaiming “noble agendas.” “We have gone,” he said, “from being an organization that aimed to mediate peace among equals to one that seeks to dictate what each nation-state and individual must do across the various corners of the globe.” Instead, he urged the UN to return to the immortal principles that uphold the dignity of life, freedom, and property of all individuals under the rule of law.”
US sanctions UN members who support IMO emission plan -The United States threatened on Friday to use sanctions and visa restrictions to retaliate to nations who vote in favor of the plan proposed by an agency of the United Nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are responsible for global warming from ocean shipping. Next week, U.N. member countries will vote on the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework to reduce global CO2 gas emissions. The international shipping industry handles about 80% of the world's trade and is responsible for about 3% of greenhouse gases. Under pressure from investors, large container carriers agree that a global regulation framework is essential to accelerate decarbonisation. Despite this, many of the largest oil tanker companies in the world expressed "grave concern" over the proposal. In a joint press release, U.S. Secretary for State Marco Rubio and U.S. Energy and Transportation Secretary Chris Wright said that the Administration "unambiguously rejects" this proposal. They said that the "proposal poses serious risks to global economic stability and exposes not only Americans but also all IMO members to an unapproved global tax regime which imposes punitive, regressive and regressive penalties," Supporters of the IMO proposal said that without global regulation the maritime industry would be faced with a patchwork regulations and increased costs, while not being able to effectively reduce climate-warming, greenhouse gas emissions. In a statement released on Friday, U.S. officials stated that the U.S. was considering retaliation towards U.N. member countries who support the plan. This could include imposing visa restrictions, fees and sanctions on officials who "sponsor activist-driven policies in climate change."
CCS projects grow 54% globally but get ‘mixed signals’ in US - The number of carbon capture facilities operating worldwide rose by 54 percent over the past year as policy uncertainty lingers in the United States, the Global CCS Institute said in its latest annual report.In a report published Thursday, the Australia-based think tank said 77 commercial-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects are in operation — up from 50 in last year’s assessment. An additional 47 projects are under construction, the analysis found.More than 600 other projects are under development, either in early or advanced stages, according to the report. Jarad Daniels, CEO of the Global CCS Institute, said Thursday during a webinar that carbon capture on a large scale is not aspirational but “essential.” Operational CCS projects today are capable of cumulatively trapping some 64 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year, the institute said.
Renewables overtake coal as world’s biggest source of electricity Renewable energy overtook coal as the world's leading source of electricity in the first half of this year - a historic first, according to new data from the global energy think tank Ember. Electricity demand is growing around the world but the growth in solar and wind was so strong it met 100% of the extra electricity demand, even helping drive a slight decline in coal and gas use. However, Ember says the headlines mask a mixed global picture. Developing countries, especially China, led the clean energy charge but richer nations including the US and EU relied more than before on planet-warming fossil fuels for electricity generation. This divide is likely to get more pronounced, according to a separate report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It predicts renewables will grow much less strongly than forecast in the US as a result of the policies of President Donald Trump's administration. Coal, a major contributor to global warming, was still the world's largest individual source of energy generation in 2024, a position it has held for more than 50 years, according to the IEA. Even though China is still adding to its fleet of coal-fired power stations, it also remains way ahead in clean energy growth, adding more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined. This enabled the growth in renewable generation in China to outpace rising electricity demand and helped reduce its fossil fuel generation by 2%. India experienced slower electricity demand growth and also added significant new solar and wind capacity, meaning it too cut back on coal and gas. In contrast, developed nations like the US, and also the EU, saw the opposite trend. In the US, electricity demand grew faster than clean energy output, increasing reliance on fossil fuels, while in the EU, months of weak wind and hydropower performance led to a rise in coal and gas generation. In a separate report the IEA has halved its forecast for the growth of renewable energy in the US this decade. Last year, the agency predicted the US would add 500GW of new renewable capacity – mostly from solar and wind – by 2030. That has been cut that back to 250GW. The IEA analysis represents the most thorough assessment to date of the impact the Trump administration's policies are having on global efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources and underscores the dramatically different approach of the US and China.
BLM cancels largest solar project in North America - The Trump administration’s cancellation of what would have been one of the world’s largest solar power projects has some industry observers fretting over the future of renewable energy on public lands.They predicted the Esmeralda 7 project — by far the largest solar project that had moved through the permitting process under former President Joe Biden’s Interior Department — won’t be the last major project in the pipeline to be pulled. It was one of a number of Nevada desert solar projects that had been steadily advancing through regulatory review by the Biden administration. Scott Sklar, sustainable energy director at George Washington University’s Environment & Energy Management Institute, said the Trump administration had set up a “multitude of regulatory barriers and delays.” These delays, he added, have placed financial strain on the renewable energy companies with projects waiting for review and could lead to others walking away from pending projects. “The administration wants to stop these projects, period, so there is no chance for approval,” he said. “As the Trump administration continues to take actions hostile to renewable energy projects, that may not be the last solar project on federal land to cancel,” he said.The Bureau of Land Management on Thursday updated its planning website for the Esmeralda 7 project to note that the environmental review of the project was “cancelled.”The decision to cancel the programmatic environmental impact statement was described by a federal government official with knowledge of the situation, who was granted anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly, as a mutual decision by BLM and the handful of companies that had proposed the seven individual solar power projects that would have comprised Esmeralda 7.The Interior Department in a statement Friday afternoon said that the solar developers and BLM had “agreed to change their approach for the Esmeralda 7 Solar Project in Nevada. Instead of pursuing a programmatic level environmental analysis, the applicants will now have the option to submit individual project proposals to the BLM to more effectively analyze potential impacts.”Representatives with the energy companies involved in developing the seven individual solar power plants that collectively comprised the Esmeralda 7 project did not respond to requests for comment.The Trump administration has made its skepticism of the solar build-out in Nevada clear in recent months, with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and other officials saying solar is an “intermittent” technology that doesn’t provide reliable energy. But some conservationists alarmed by the proposed rollout of large solar projects in Nevada and other Western states celebrated the demise of Esmeralda 7, saying as designed it took up up far too much land. “Friends of Nevada Wilderness is thrilled that this poorly sited project is dead,” said Shaaron Netherton, the group’s executive director. “In the push to get this particular project through, the BLM ignored the importance of this region’s cultural significance, biological significance and the fact that it is one of the most intact landscapes remaining in Nevada,” Netherton added.
Trump’s budget ax hits pediatric hospital’s microgrid plan - Nestled in one of the nation’s most polluted counties in California’s San Joaquin Valley, the administrators of Valley Children’s Healthcare hospital view its solar microgrid and backup power project as a health innovation. In 2022, hospital leadership launched an ambitious plan to build a microgrid on its campus in Madera, north of Fresno. With a new fleet of solar panels, batteries and fuel cells, the hospital would be able to continue operating during a blackout or a wildfire, plus reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the hospital by more than 50 percent. That effort, however, took a hit last week when the Department of Energy canceled a $30 million grant to project developer Faraday Microgrid (formerly called Charge Bliss) that would have supported a set of long-duration batteries that could have powered the hospital for days on end. The grant was one of more than 300 financial awards yanked by the Trump administration last week, affecting mostly blue states. A list circulating in Washington policy circles identifies another roughly 300 grants that could be cut. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said some of the projects failed to meet critical milestones. And the Trump administration has defended the cuts as a way to rein in Biden-era spending. But before DOE had provided any details, the White House also put a political sheen on the grant cancellations. Last Wednesday, on the same day the ongoing U.S. government shutdown started, White House Office of Management and Budget Director Russ Vought announced on X that the administration was axing nearly $8 billion in “Green New Scam funding.” Vought listed 16 states that did not vote for President Donald Trump in the presidential election, including California. Valley Children’s CEO Todd Suntrapak said the “disappointing” decision instead creates a roadblock to a much-needed project that aims to keep the lights on and medical devices running as Western power grids are increasingly taxed. The first phase of the battery project is expected to come online this year.“This project is about reducing what we consider to be too great a risk to rely solely on the commercial grid for power,” said Suntrapak. “The microgrid and batteries will support every power outlet in the building, which is very valuable given that we are entrusted with children’s lives every day.” Suntrapak said the hospital has experienced power interruptions “from time to time,” although it has not had a long-running blackout. Still, Suntrapak said the hospital is not willing to risk an outage, with California experiencing more wildfires and electricity demand growing rapidly. The 2020 Creek Fire in California, for example, burned nearly 350,000 acres in the Central Valley, where the hospital is located.The federal grant through DOE’s Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations was a key tool to advance the second phase of the project. It involved installing storage batteries that could keep the power on during a long outage. The grant was part of a $325 million outlay under the Biden administration, part of an overall effort aimed at cutting the cost of long-duration batteries by 90 percent by 2030.Other projects under the long-duration storage program — including tests for iron-air batteries and the use of recycled electric vehicle batteries to support the grid — are all poised to lose funding.IEA Slashes U.S. Renewables Growth Forecast Due to Trump Policies -- Growth in U.S. renewable capacity additions will be 45% lower than previously expected, due to the Trump Administration’s raid on clean energy incentives and permitting, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). In its annual Renewables 2025 report out on Tuesday, the agency slashed its growth forecasts for clean energy capacity extensions by 45% compared to the growth of about 500 gigawatts (GW) expected last year. “The forecast for the United States is revised down by almost 50%,” the IEA said. “This reflects several policy changes, including the earlier phase out of federal tax credits, new import restrictions, the suspension of new offshore wind leasing and restricting the permitting of onshore wind and solar PV projects on federal land.” Last month, the American Clean Power Association’s (ACP) quarterly report showed that the clean power development pipeline showed virtually no growth, expanding by less than 100 MW to 184.5 GW, solar installations slumped by 23% in the first half of 2025, and Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) plummeted. These are “early indicators of federal policy attacks and fluctuating trade policy undermining American energy security and economic growth,” ACP said. “Federal policy actions from nearly every department and an unstable tariff environment have led to a drop in clean power purchasing and planning for the future—despite skyrocketing demand nationwide,” the association added. U.S. consultancy Atlas Public Policy has estimated that almost $19 billion worth of wind and solar power generation projects have been canceled since President Trump took office. The IEA’s expectations for U.S. renewable capacity growth are now aligned with unfavorable policies for clean energy this decade. But the Paris-based agency strongly promoting renewables has also cut its growth projections for global additions and for additions in China, the world’s biggest renewables market. Growth estimates for the world and in China were revised down by 5% each compared to the 2024 forecast. “China’s shift from fixed tariffs to auctions is impacting project economics and lowering growth expectations,” the IEA said.
Trump's hydrogen bombshell - It took three years for California’s flagship hydrogen energy booster to go from an idea in a Biden-era law to signing a mega $1.2 billion agreement with the feds. The Trump administration wiped it all away in a day. The industry is putting on a brave face. But the move likely marks a major turning point in the future of an energy state leaders see as essential to decarbonizing industries that are difficult to electrify, such as big-rig trucking and ports. The U.S. Department of Energy canceled its funding for the Alliance for Renewable Clean Hydrogen Energy Systems on Wednesday. The Irvine-based public-private partnership was set up to distribute funding to hydrogen projects across California and was seen by many as the linchpin to launching the nascent industry. And while DOE’s move takes away just 10 percent of the project’s money, the federal grant is the reason the initiative was launched in the first place. “We’re just extremely disappointed,” said Chris Hannan, the president of the State Building and Construction Trades Council, who was a vocal supporter of ARCHES throughout its inception. Despite the gut punch, many in the California hydrogen world were quick Thursday to outline contingency plans. That’s largely because DOE started dropping hints that ARCHES could be on the chopping block as early as March. “We were prepared for it to go either way, but we also, as an industry, have been prepared for the worst case scenario,” Katrina Fritz, president and CEO of the California Hydrogen Business Council, said in an interview. “The plan is that we continue to support those projects, and work with the state to support those projects so that we can realize the private investment.” Gov. Gavin Newsom came out with a swift rebuke to the Trump administration cut, assuaging the worst fears of many in the hydrogen world. “Clean hydrogen deserves to be part of California’s energy future — creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs and saving billions in health costs,” Newsom said in a statement. “We’ll continue to pursue an all-of-the above clean energy strategy that powers our future and cleans the air, no matter what DC tries to dictate.” To Fritz, that bullish statement was a strong signal that Newsom would throw his weight behind additional state funding for the hydrogen industry. She hopes that the reauthorized cap and invest program will send significant funding hydrogen’s way, meaning the fight shaping up over the $1 billion discretionary fund just got even tighter. In the meantime, some still saw hope that there could be a path to bringing back the canceled funds. “I’m not giving up that quickly. I think there’s questions as to the validity or the legality of how they’re trying to claw back not just ARCHES funding, but funding broadly,” Sen. Alex Padilla said in an interview, flagging previous Trump administration court losses over funding cuts.
Trump inks order to advance halted Alaska mining road - President Donald Trump on Monday ordered federal agencies to advance a 211-mile-long mining road in Alaska to tap into mineral deposits, a project that’s been at the center of a decades long regulatory and legal fight.“It’s a very, very big deal from the standpoint of minerals and energy,” said Trump.Standing next to Trump in the Oval Office, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said construction on the gravel road will begin next spring and that the Department of Defense is poised to announce funding for a company angling to produce minerals from the region. The road will be jointly owned by the state, federal government and Native Alaskan villages, he said.The road was halted under the Biden administration last year, with officials at the time concluding that all proposed routes to the Ambler mining district would result in irreparable harm to permafrost and wildlife, including caribou, which many local people rely on for food.But Burgum said the order was being reversed, and will tap into some of the world’s richest mineral sources, including copper, and warned that China has a chokehold on mining. The secretary said Trump is tapping into a special 1980s-era authority set aside for presidents to allow Alaska to build the road.According to a White House fact sheet, Trump approved an appeal from the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, or AIDEA, and directed agencies — including the National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management and Army Corps of Engineers — to “promptly” approve permits for the project.The fact sheet also states that Trilogy Metals will also receive $35.6 million to explore the Ambler mining district, and he U.S. government will become a 10 percent shareholder in the company.“This opens up a wealth of resources,” said Burgum. “The Department of War is making an investment in Trilogy Minerals, one of the companies that has mining claims in this area.”The project is slated to move forward in three phases, Burgum said, starting with a pilot phase in which a single-lane gravel road will be built and later expanded.The decision is sure to draw legal fights. Environmental groups and tribes in Alaska have fought the Ambler Road, which would cross federally managed land, including the Brooks Range and the Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve to reach mineral-rich areas.Burgum during an interview on Friday with Alaska’s News Source’s “In-Depth Alaska” indicated the road was advancing, and said discussions were ongoing about subsistence farming. He also argued that the administration is legally required to see the road advance. Alaska’s congressional delegation has also voiced support for the project.
Warnings of ‘irreversible’ damage from Trump order to ravage Alaskan wilderness for corporate profits -President Donald Trump and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum sparked outrage Monday evening after announcing the U.S. government would take a 10 percent stake in a for-profit foreign mining corporation set to profit handsomely from an executive order that would “bring ruin to a national park and an incomparable wilderness landscape” with an industrial project in Alaska opposed by communities, Indigenous communities, and conservationists near and far. Green groups warn that Trump’s order to begin the controversial 211-mile Ambler Road Project, which was approved by the Republican president during his first term but subsequently blocked under former President Joe Biden, will irreparably harm the Gates of the Arctic National Park, destroy 1,400 acres of fragile wetlands and spawning regions for inland fish, and bisect the state’s largest wild caribou herd. Conservationists and local tribes that oppose the project argue that it’s misleading to view it as a road-building project. “This is no ordinary road,” said Athan Manuel, director of the Sierra Club’s Lands Protection Program. “It’s an industrial corridor through intact forests and Alaskan landscapes long enough to connect Washington, DC, to Philadelphia. Moreover, it would divide the migration route of the Western Arctic Caribou Herd, causing irreversible damage.” Alongside the order to restart the project, which Trump and Burgum said would begin in 2026 with federal support, the president announced taking the 10 percent stake in the Canada-based mining giant, Trilogy Metals, which has long sought to exploit the project to expand its mining operations. Shares of the mining company, according to CNBC, soared by over 250 percent in pre-market trading on Tuesday following Trump’s announcement. While the company stated in a press release that Trump’s order “reflects a renewed federal commitment to responsible resource development in Alaska and highlights the Ambler Road as critical infrastructure under federal policy,” critics argue that the venture appears to be tainted by corruption and is an affront to the people and natural landscapes of Alaska. “Why is the federal government rushing to destroy public lands to benefit a foreign company instead of focusing on ending a government shutdown?” asked Maddie Halloran, state director for the Alaska Wilderness League, in a Monday night statement. “This is anything but putting America first,“ Halloran said. ”In addition to pushing for the Ambler Road, the US government is making a direct investment in Trilogy Metals, a Canadian-owned company looking to mine the Ambler district, taking minerals and profits out of the country. After widespread opposition from Alaskans during the SEIS process, it’s adding insult to injury to have this project pushed through to benefit a foreign company. This isn’t economic growth, it’s a giveaway that puts corporate profit ahead of Alaska’s communities and our environment.“ ”There is a reason the previous administration put an end to this project, given that it was roundly opposed by scores of communities along the proposed route—industrializing the landscape for speculative mining in this part of Alaska is not worth the economic, quality of life, or environmental costs it would impose,“ ”Make no mistake: when a road like this is built, the impacts are irreversible.“
Congress strikes down third Biden land use plan - The Senate approved legislation Thursday to strike down a Biden-era land use plan for broad swaths of central Alaska, after killing similar plans in Montana and North Dakota earlier this week.In a series of party-line votes, Republicans rejected Democratic arguments against using the Congressional Review Act to nullify the resource management plans. The legislation passed the House in recent weeks and is now on its way to President Donald Trump, who is expected to sign it. “Resource Management Plans are a simple idea,” said Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) during floor remarks. “Every decade or two, public land managers look at a region as a whole and figure out how to balance all the competing different uses of public land across that landscape,” including recreation, grazing, historic preservation, and oil and gas production, said Heinrich.
More BLM shutdown furloughs could be coming soon - While only a quarter of the Bureau of Land Management’s staff has been placed on furlough so far during the federal government shutdown, there are signs that might change soon. BLM’s contingency plan calls for roughly 75 percent of its 9,250 employees to continue working, and many are getting paid with non-appropriated funding, such as carryover funds or money collected by fees. Only 2,400 BLM employees have been furloughed.But that is already changing for some of the 4,000 employees that BLM’s contingency plan lists as either on an “exempted” or “excepted” status, which means, respectively, that their ongoing work is paid for through fees or other available money or they are authorized to work without pay during the shutdown because of their positions, such as people in law enforcement. Some of the funding available to keep some employees working is starting to run out, according to four BLM staffers with knowledge of the situation who said very little detailed information about funding levels and timelines is being shared with employees. All were granted anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss the issue publicly.
Inside Trump’s foray into mineral ownership - The Trump administration this week took partial ownership of a third critical minerals company, part of an unusual trend that’s generating buzz about future deals and possible risks for taxpayers and the environment. The U.S. government now holds equity stakes in companies with mineral operations or plans in Nevada, California and Alaska as it moves to secure supply chains that China currently dominates and throttles through export restrictions or by driving down prices to squeeze out competition. “It’s very rare for western governments to do this in modern times. It’s more of a China and Russia play [to] take stakes in mineral mining companies through state-owned enterprises,” said Simon Moores, CEO of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “Traditionally, the U.S. would create incentives to spur the private sector to take on the investment and development burden. “But with critical minerals, it’s an uneven playing field,” he added. On Monday, President Donald Trump announced from the Oval Office that the Department of Defense was taking a 10 percent equity stake in Trilogy Metals, a Vancouver-based company that has mining claims in an isolated part of northwestern Alaska. Under the deal, the government is also investing $35.6 million to support Trilogy’s exploration and has warrants to purchase an additional 7.5 percent of the company. A week earlier, the Department of Energy took a 5 percent equity stake in another Canadian company, Lithium Americas, which is developing a massive lithium mine and processing plant in Nevada with a multibillion-dollar federal loan. Before that, the DOD became the biggest stakeholder in MP Materials, a Las Vegas-based company operating the nation’s only rare earths mine in California. Trump officials say they’re focus is on national security and jump-starting a domestic mining and processing sector to pump out critical minerals and reduce U.S. reliance on China. At the same time, Trump has hammered out mineral-linked deals in Greenland, Ukraine and the Democratic Republic of the Congo while his administration has set aside billions for mining projects, fast-tracked permits for U.S. projects, opened up more public lands for mining activity and boosted stockpiling of minerals. “President Trump pledged to upend the status quo policymaking that has clearly left glaring holes in America’s national and economic security,” said White House spokesperson Kush Desai. “The Administration is committed to using every lever of executive power to deliver on this pledge.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright has said the stakes will ensure the U.S. can enter into and compete in markets dominated by foreign adversaries and emphasized that not all stakes will be permanent. “By maintaining equity ownership in critical mineral projects, the administration is making better deals for the American taxpayer and ensuring these projects reach completion,” said Ben Dietderich, a spokesperson for the DOE. Officials from the Department of Defense did not respond to a request for comment by press time. Academic experts and analysts say the administration’s approach marks a sharp departure from business-as-usual. The federal government has traditionally relied on grants, loans and tax incentives to stimulate private investment while maintaining distance from ownership, said Stephen Empedocles, CEO at the advisory firm Clark Street Associates. “This model signals a change in U.S. industrial policy — one that treats the federal government less as a grantmaker and more as a strategic investor,” said Empedocles. “It sets a precedent for similar approaches in semiconductors and other critical supply chains.” Speculation is soaring around what deals could be next. A White House official said the administration is in ”constant touch” with the private sector and “receives hundreds of deal proposals involving equity stakes.” But they also pushed back on reports that the White House is considering taking a stake in a company developing a rare earths mine in Greenland.
Donald Trump’s Worst Idea - by Tyler Cowen - Is President Donald Trump a socialist in disguise? Trump made his name in the private sector as a dealmaker, and so my worry has long been that he will try to make too many deals, specifically here at home with American companies. Sure enough, that’s exactly what he has been doing, effectively turning major U.S. businesses into arms of the government. My first big wave of anxiety came in August, when Trump announced that the federal government would be taking 10 percent of Intel, the microchip company, in return for a previously approved subsidy. Needless to say, this was done without any congressional stamp of approval. Viewed as a stand-alone incident, the Intel deal could be dismissed as unimportant. There are state-owned or partially state-owned companies around the world, after all, and some are more efficient than others. Unfortunately, this is not a one-off. The federal government also decided to take a 15 percent share in MP Materials, a company that mines rare-earth minerals that are essential for everything from smartphones to guided missiles. You might think that is essential for America’s national security, because China has such a large presence in that sector and the military applications of these rare-earth minerals are many. Just last week, however, the Trump administration announced it would be taking a 5 percent stake in two different lithium mining ventures. The good news is that major lithium deposits are being discovered around the world, making this kind of U.S. government involvement unnecessary for national security reasons. The bad news is that our government still is treating this as a national emergency. The word socialism is overused in political debate, but during his 10 months in office, Trump has certainly put us on the path toward it. The Trump administration has also offered Nvidia the right to sell high-quality artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China, previously denied under law because the U.S. generally isn’t interested in helping Chinese AI get better. In exchange, the U.S. government would get a cut of those transactions to the tune of about 15 percent. In that case, it is not obvious the deal will hold up in the courts because it may violate the Export Clause of the U.S. Constitution. Of course, it does not end there. Once deals like this are being made and the safeguards protecting private business from government control are done away with, we can only expect more of them. Last week, the Trump administration announced an arrangement in which Pfizer would cut pharmaceutical prices in return for some tariff relief. Reuters has reported that the Trump administration is now planning various kinds of deals with up to 30 industries. To make sure the new deals stick, there is a plan in the works to formalize them and make it so this is how the U.S. government deals with businesses going forward. To that end, the Trump administration wishes to greatly expand the financing and authority of what was previously a minor institution, namely the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). The DFC was created in 2018 to help finance projects in developing nations. But under the proposed expansion, it would establish an equity fund to cement federal government ownership of key parts of American industry. This means that our federal government would move away from its longstanding and beneficial stance of letting private ownership stay private. The word socialism is overused in political debate, but during his 10 months in office, Trump has certainly put us on the path toward it. And in case you’re wondering, this is a bad thing: American business has been world-beating for a long time now, in large part because we avoid these sorts of public-private arrangements, which are common in faltering European economies. A dose of government ownership and the associated politicization are not what American industry and innovation need.
Germany’s chancellor backs scrapping the planned ICE ban in Europe - Germany is bringing its industrial weight into play against the European Union’s plans to ban sales of new internal- combustion-engine vehicles after 2035, according to several media outlet reports. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has promised to do everything in his power to have the plan amended to allow carbon-neutral fuels in ICE powered vehicles beyond the zero-tailpipe emissions mandate.His voice joins those of the Association for Emissions Control and Climate (AECC) and German auto supplier giant Mahle’s CEO Arnd Franz, calling for the EU to change course.Europe’s trade regulator, the European Commission, is currently in discussions with automakers, suppliers and other stakeholders to reconsider its planned zero-tailpipe emission mandate for new vehicle sales.Merz said Europe’s domestic automakers need more time to move toward lowering CO2 emissions through the use of alternative technologies to battery-electric vehicles, Reuters reported.“If I have my way, and I will do everything I can to achieve this, there will be no such hard cut in 2035,” Merz said at a press conference after meeting company executives of Europe’s top auto brands.However, Merz said he accepted that the path to electrified mobility would continue and could become the central technology of the next fewyears, after announcing an additional €3 billion ($3.5 billion) in subsidies to support EV purchases by middle- and lower-income households, the news outlet reported.Naturally, the EU’s ban would also hit the sales of hybrids, plug-in hybrids and range extended EVs, all of which are seeing growing demand from European consumers.Europe’s legacy auto industry is facing increasing competition from cheaper EV products imported into the market from China by a growing number of brands, including GAC which plans a rapid expansion through the economic bloc.
Company bids less than a penny per ton in biggest US coal sale in over a decade (AP) — A Navajo tribe-owned company bid $186,000 to lease 167 million tons of coal on federal lands in southeastern Montana on Monday in the biggest U.S. coal sale in more than a decade. The offer from the Navajo Transitional Energy Co. (NTEC) equates to one-tenth of a penny per ton, underscoring coal’s diminished value even as President Donald Trump pushes to mine and burn more of the heavily polluting fuel. Federal officials did not immediately say if they would accept the offer. It was the only bid received. Two NTEC representatives attended the sale at the Bureau of Land Management local office in Billings, Montana. They declined to comment after it was over. At the last successful government lease sale in the region, a subsidiary of Peabody Energy paid $793 million, or $1.10 per ton, for 721 million tons of coal in Wyoming. It’s uncertain how much demand there will be for the coal offered Monday next to NTEC’s Spring Creek mine near Decker, Montana. The five power plants using fuel from Spring Creek mine are scheduled to stop burning coal in the next decade, according to an analysis by The Associated Press. The lease is in the Powder River Basin, the most productive coal fields in the nation. Officials under the Democratic administration of then-President Joe Biden banned sales from the region because of coal’s contribution to climate change but Republicans are attempting to reverse that decision. NTEC argued in favor of a low market value for coal in the lease area, pointing to government studies that predict coal markets will decline significantly over the next two decades as fewer utilities buy the fuel. The company bid $147 per acre for tracts of land totaling 1,262 acres (510 hectares). Another sale is planned Wednesday in central Wyoming, where the government is offering 440 million tons of coal next to NTEC’s Antelope Mine. The sales are going forward despite the government shutdown because the Trump administration did not furlough workers responsible for reviewing fossil fuel projects. Many coal plants have been retired over the past two decades as utilities favored power from natural gas and renewable sources such as wind and solar energy. Selling new coal leases does not necessarily mean the tracts will be mined, said James Stock, a Harvard University economist and former member of the White House Council on Economic Advisers under President Barack Obama. Despite Trump’s declaration of an energy “emergency” and his calls to expand mining and burning of coal, Stock said it’s unlikely any new coal plants will be built. That means much of the coal that’s being sold under Trump is unlikely to ever be mined, he said. “I don’t expect these leases to have much real-world impact,” Stock said. Spring Creek also ships coal overseas to customers in Asia. Increasing those shipments could help it offset lessening domestic demand, but a shortage of port capacity has hobbled prior industry aspirations to boost coal exports.
EPA sends first furlough notices -EPA has begun notifying employees they are on furlough status as the agency draws on leftover funds to stay afloat during the federal government shutdown. Those notices advised staffers they’re entering “non-duty, non-pay status,” effective Thursday, according to records viewed by POLITICO’s E&E News.The notices said EPA could no longer incur “further financial obligations” and “a number of EPA employees will be placed in a furlough status.” How many EPA employees have been furloughed so far is not clear. The agency didn’t answer questions about the number of staffers being sent home or whether EPA had exhausted its available funds to stay open.EPA spokesperson Brigit Hirsch said the agency was operating according to its shutdown or “lapse” plan. Under that plan, once carryover funds expire, EPA could furlough more than 13,000 employees until the shutdown ends. Multiple EPA employees, who have been granted anonymity because they fear retaliation, said they’ve been told this is the first phase of furloughs at the agency. But details have been sparse, leaving employees in a new phase of limbo. Since the shutdown began last week, EPA staffers have been reporting to work as usual. Exemption notices sent to many employees, potentially the entire staff, gave no timeline on when furloughs would start.EPA’s largest union denounced staff being furloughed.“Furloughing EPA employees is not just an attack on federal workers, but an attack on every American’s right to clean air, safe water, and uncontaminated soil,” said Justin Chen, president of American Federation of Government Employees Council 238, in a statement.Chen added, “When the essential services that EPA workers provide stop, that means pollution monitoring, toxic cleanup, and other public health protections stall and communities suffer.”
Coal pollution rose in last shutdown as EPA inspections stopped - During the last government shutdown, air pollution from coal plants increased as companies “strategically” sidestepped environmental rules, according to new research.Neha Khanna, who co-authored a study that examined power companies’ responses seven years ago, said something similar could be happening in the current shutdown, which is entering its second week with EPA sending the first furlough notices to staff Thursday.“I can’t believe we are in exactly the same situation again,” said Khanna, a professor of economics and environmental studies at Binghamton University in New York. Khanna’s study, published in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, looks at three types of coal plant pollution from nearly 200 power plants during the government shutdown of 2018 and 2019.Particulate matter pollution — a mix of airborne soot specks — increased 15 to 19 percent above average during the 35-day shutdown, the research shows. Other types of power plant pollution, such as nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide, did not rise substantially.The disparity could be due to differences in how those pollutants are monitored. Nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide emissions are typically monitored by devices within a power plant’s smoke stack or exhaust system that automatically send relevant data to EPA, regardless of whether the government is operating.But particulate matter emissions are not tracked at smoke stacks. Instead, EPA monitors ambient concentrations of particulate matter at 1,200 sites across the country with filters that are required to be operated by people who collect samples. When EPA enforcement staff are furloughed during a shutdown, those activities effectively stop, along with inspections.Technologies for removing the three pollutants are all different, and power plants can continue running so-called selective catalytic reduction to combat nitrogen oxides. They can also use a process known as flue gas desulfurization to reduce sulfur dioxides, without operating electrostatic precipitators that target particulate matter.“Our best guess is that the EPA’s furlough offered these power plants an opportunity to lower operating costs by temporarily turning off end of pipe abatement technology for a criteria pollutant that is not continuously monitored,” the authors wrote in the study.“It is a bit like speeding on a highway. You take that risk when you think the chances are low of getting caught and getting a ticket,” Khanna said in an interview.
Nuclear security chief warns Johnson of shutdown impacts - The head of a major Department of Energy bureau alerted House Speaker Mike Johnson on Tuesday that the administration will have to temporarily suspend certain nuclear security programs because of the ongoing government shutdown.Brandon Williams, the administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration, told the Louisiana Republican in a private meeting that the shutdown is forcing the nation’s weapons and nonproliferation overseer to adopt a “minimum safe operations posture,” according to a person familiar with the conversation.That means certain NNSA functions, such as nuclear weapons life extension and nonproliferation programs, could be put on hold indefinitely, and skilled contract workers who are being furloughed may not receive back pay, according to the person, who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic.The updates from Williams, a former House Republican nominated by President Donald Trump, come days after Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that the NNSA only has enough funding to operate at full capacity until roughly Oct. 11. “Eight more days of funding, and then we have to go into some emergency shutdown procedures, putting our country at risk,” Wright said Thursday on Fox News, referring to the NNSA. The Department of Energy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Government funding lapsed Oct. 1, and Democrats and Republicans in Congress have been unable to agree on a way to reopen agencies, which have been furloughing workers and suspending some operations. A White House draft memo unveiled Tuesday suggests that furloughed employees would not be automatically provided back pay when the shutdown ends. Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.), chair of the House Appropriations subcommittee that funds DOE, has blasted Democrats for blocking Republicans’ continuing resolution, which would allow agencies to resume their normal work. “Democrats’ stupid and unnecessary shutdown jeopardizes our national security, energy dominance, & vital work to modernize our nuclear deterrent,” Fleischmann recently posted on the social media site X. Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.), long wary of nuclear hazards, said “the MAGA Republican shutdown is threatening the safety of the arsenal.”
Will EOG Resources' (EOG) Utica Expansion Redefine Its Geographic Diversification Strategy?
- In recent weeks, EOG Resources completed its US$5.6 billion acquisition of Encino Energy, expanding its footprint in the Utica Shale and announcing the establishment of a new regional headquarters near Columbus, Ohio. This move adds over one million acres and hundreds of shale wells to EOG, while also creating 150 new jobs to support Utica asset development.
- The company's growth in the Utica region signals a shift toward broader geographic diversification and operational scale, as well as an increased focus on integrating new assets with existing operations.
- We'll explore how the Encino Energy acquisition enhances EOG's operational platform and affects its future growth outlook.
The recent US$5.6 billion Encino acquisition deepens EOG's presence in Utica Shale and scales up overall operations, but short-term performance catalysts, such as production and cash flow guidance, are only moderately affected as integration risks and rising operational costs become more prominent. The most important immediate risk, integration execution in a new regional basin, will require close monitoring, but at this stage the impact on the business outlook is material and should not be overlooked. Read the full narrative on EOG Resources (it's free!)EOG Resources is projected to reach $27.1 billion in revenue and $6.6 billion in earnings by 2028. This outlook implies a 6.0% annual revenue growth and a $0.9 billion increase in earnings from the current $5.7 billion.
Infinity Sees Opportunity Despite Inventory Consolidation From EOG-Encino Merger – (interview and transcript) Infinity Natural Resources sees a bright future for itself in the Utica Shale. The geological formation recently experienced major consolidation with the mega-merger of EOG Resources Inc. and Encino Acquisition Partners for $5.6 billion. Combined, the two have a tight grip on the Utica’s oil and gas production. Next door, the smaller but still mighty Infinity Natural Resources is undeterred by its new herculean neighbor, President and CEO Zack Arnold said at Hart Energy’s DUG Appalachia Conference and Expo in August. Despite the amount of leasehold that’s been taken off the map, Arnold sees benefits to the consolidation. For one, there’s less competition in the area.“I think we have an even stronger opportunity there now because there’s one less company that’s leasing in the area, so you’ll see us take that ground game,” Arnold said.And outside of the Utica’s oil window, the natural gas opportunities are abundant, he said.“We believed that deep, dry-gas Utica was going to emerge as a prolific resource that we’d be able to develop as time and technology unlocked it. We’ve been proven true over the last six or seven years.”Arnold believes the drilling environment in the Utica is only going to get better too, he said.“I think over time, the deep, dry-gas Utica will prove to be a less complicated drilling environment and a cheaper cost per foot,” he said.He dove deeper into Infinity’s strategies and drilling plans in the Utica in this exclusive interview with Executive Editor-at-Large Nissa Darbonne. This interview was edited for clarity.
Texas-based Fox Tank Company opens manufacturing facility in Coshocton - Coshocton Tribune - − A company that originally came to the area for an auction has opened the doors to a new manufacturing plant. In June, Fox Tank, a Texas-based company, announced it was leasing the former Crozier Welding site at 16867 Ohio 83. It hopes to complete a $7.9 million investment and create close to 80 new jobs by 2028. Fox Tank Company has other sites in Kerrville and Luling, Texas, where it produces steel storage tanks and pressurized separation vessels for the oil and gas industry, along with other related items. Fox Tank is now renovating and making additions to the local facility. A new sandblasting booth will be delivered Oct. 28 and a paint booth is being enlarged. There are 22 employees on-site. Chip Rogers, president of Fox Tank, said the additional employees may include many of the 90 individuals who once worked for Crozier Welding. “They're sort of lined up waiting to come back. They've taken jobs at others places, but sometimes those jobs are an hour and a half each way, or the money is the not the same or the work environment isn't the same," Rogers said. "We're growing slowly," he added.The facility will allow the company to create new products for the oil and gas industry, such as a pipeline cleaning device that is shot into the pipeline and then caught on the other end."We didn't have the quality of welders down in Texas to do this," Rogers said. "It's a different sort of product, but we can sell that product now down in Texas. We're going to start manufacturing up here and shipping it to Texas. And we'll continue making tanks in Texas we'll ship up here, but we're going to start making tanks they've never made before here."Rogers said they could also start branching out into storage vessels for other industries, such as tanks for food makers, steam accumulators for steam boilers and air receivers for air compressors.He said they were interested in locating a manufacturing site in the region because of its proximity to the growing Marcellus and Utica Shale drilling for oil and gas and existing customers. He said they originally came to an equipment auction at the location in March."We thought it was just going to be an auction visit, but we stayed," Rogers stated.He gave kudos to local officials who welcomed them with open arms. When Rogers went to Coshocton City Hall to check on any needed permits, he met Safety Service Director Max Crown, who took Rogers around town and made several introductions, including Tiffany Swigert, executive director of the Coshocton Port Authority.
Utica Shale Academy exceeds expectations — The Utica Shale Academy exceeded expectations on the latest results of the 2024-2025 Ohio State Report Card. The intent of the report card is to outline the progress made and where continued focus is needed. The state provides scores which include exceeding standards, meeting standards and not meeting standards, and the Salineville-based community school garnered high marks for progress, gap closing and graduation rate. “We exceeded expectations on the state report card in three areas,” said Superintendent Bill Watson. He noted that progress is always great, and students grew an average of two levels in reading and math based on the standards. The gap closing component evaluates how effectively schools are addressing achievement gaps among various student groups, focusing on performance expectations and annual goals. According to the state, USA earned 63.7 percent, which was above the state average of 33.8 percent. Meanwhile, the graduation rate yielded an 89.5-percent result, surpassing the state average of 44.3 percent. But Watson said he measures success beyond the report card. “The most important data that is not included–and that I care most about–is that we had 48 graduates last year, and 46 of them are employed in trades or going to a trade school,” he commented. “What’s important is that our students are successful after they leave here.” USA is a dropout recovery and retention facility that focuses career-tech education for at-risk pupils and has had nearly 200 students graduate and more than 1,100 certifications being earned since 2021. All students receive blended learning with an online education through the Jefferson County Educational Service Center’s Virtual Learning Academy in addition to their training in career-tech courses. Since beginning 11 years ago, it has expanded its student base from 50 to upwards of 170 students in addition to growing its campus with added facilities. It currently includes 148 students in grades 7-12, with the junior high pupils undergoing career exploration at the Williams Collaboration Center while freshmen through seniors gain hands-on learning in megatronics, hydraulics, pneumatics, AC/DC electric, Programmable Logic Controllers (PLC’s), diesel mechanics and horticulture at the Hutson Building and Energy Training Center, as well as the exterior welding lab with a new interior welding lab currently under construction.
Fracking waste in a landfill once again poses a pollution problem to the Mon - On a rainy morning, Mike Frederick showed off the Belle Vernon Municipal Authority’s sewage treatment plant, about 30 miles south of Pittsburgh. “This distribution box is where all the sewage comes in,” said Frederick, an operator at the plant, pointing at a concrete basin where murky liquid poured in through a pipe. The tanks next to the basin were roiling with wastewater being treated; the last of these was a UV chamber used for disinfection. “That’s what kills your bacteria, your fecal…whatever you want to call it,” said Frederick. He pointed to a pipe, discharging clear water into another basin. “And then it goes right out here, down into a pipe that goes into your outfall into the river.” The water, which Frederick called the “finished product,” was bound for the Monongahela River a few feet away. A few years ago, the water pouring out of that pipe wasn’t getting fully treated. Levels of bacteria and ammonia in the plant’s discharge to the river started going up.In 2018, the plant began flunking water quality tests for its Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection pollution discharge permit.“At one point in time, we were treating nothing, and we turned ourselves into the DEP,” Frederick said.What was happening was that microorganisms in the plant’s treatment tanks, which the authority uses to break down sewage, were dying. The treatment plant determined they were getting killed off by wastewater the plant was receiving from one particular client: the nearby Westmoreland Sanitary Landfill. Frederick said he could tell something was off about the landfill’s wastewater. It smelled like diesel fuel, he said, and was “black.” “The water texture was dark. You could see a big difference,” he said. “A lot of foam. It was a total mess. It was a wreck.” It turned out that the landfill had been receiving fracking waste – solids and liquid waste derived from drilling and hydraulically fracturing, or fracking, for gas in deep shale reserves – for several years. In 2018, it received 78,000 tons of solid fracking waste, nearly a quarter of its total tonnage for the year, according to DEP records compiled by the environmental groupFracTracker Alliance. The landfill’s wastewater, called leachate, was loaded with contaminants found in fracking waste. “It killed off every bug in this plant. UVs didn’t work,” Frederick said.Leachate is the liquid coming from the landfill, or “landfill tea,” as Gillian Graber calls it. Graber is executive director of the local environmental groupProtect PT.The rainwater picks up contaminants from whatever it comes into contact with in the landfill. “Anything that’s in the landfill, your dirty diapers, your waste from your home,” Graber said, all gets into a landfill’s leachate. And in the case of Westmoreland Sanitary Landfill, the leachate picked up contaminants from fracking waste, including drill cuttings – rocks and other materials excavated during drilling for natural gas in the deep Marcellus Shale found in parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. These cuttings are high in salts, metals, and radioactive materials, including radium, a naturally occurring radioactive element.A 2011 analysis by federal scientists found liquid waste from Marcellus shale gas wells had overall concentrations of radium roughly 40 times what the federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission classifies as “hazardous” or “radioactive.” Despite these characteristics, Congress in 1980 exempted oil and gas waste from federal hazardous waste regulations pending a review. In 1988, the U.S. EPA determined that the regulations were not warranted. That’s why cuttings and other fracking solid waste are classified as residual waste (non-hazardous industrial waste) and can be sent to municipal landfills like Westmoreland.
32 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Sep 29 – Oct 5 -- Marcellus Drilling News --For the week of September 29 to October 5, the number of permits issued to drill new wells in the Marcellus/Utica increased from the previous week. There were 32 new permits issued across the three M-U states last week, up five from 27 issued two weeks ago. Last week, Pennsylvania issued 27 drilling permits across six counties—the highest weekly total the state has recorded in months, possibly even over a year. Ohio issued five permits in two counties. West Virginia was skunked last week, issuing no new permits for the second consecutive week. What’s up with WV? ARMSTRONG COUNTY | ASCENT RESOURCES | BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | EOG RESOURCES | EQT CORP | EXPAND ENERGY | HARRISON COUNTY | INDIANA COUNTY | INR/INFINITY NATURAL RESOURCES | LYCOMING COUNTY | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SNYDER BROTHERS | SULLIVAN COUNTY |WASHINGTON COUNTY
Special Briefing Oct. 16 on WV’s Gas-Fired Power Plant Opportunities -- Marcellus Drilling News -- In August, newly elected West Virginia Governor Patrick Morrisey announced a plan that includes the state growing its electric energy production from a current 16 gigawatts (GW) of generation to a massive 50 GW by 2050—what Morrisey calls the “50 by ’50” plan (see WV Gov. Morrisey Wants 50 GW of PowerGen in State by 2050). Natural gas will play a starring role in accomplishing that objective. At next week’s AI Energy Conference 2, being held in Pittsburgh on October 16, Bryce Custer, founder of Ohio River Corridor, LLC, will deliver a special presentation on the intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and the rapidly evolving power generation landscape in West Virginia. He’ll discuss Morrisey’s vision to rapidly expand the state’s power generation and how it can be accomplished.
Natural gas power plants powering WV's future | Harrison County Editorials -The recent announcements of new natural-gas power plants in Clarksburg and Morgantown deserve attention not just from local officials but from business leaders and energy planners across the region. These facilities carry more than just kilowatts — they could help shape West Virginia’s economic future at a moment when U.S. power demand is being remade by data centers and AI.In Harrison County, the ESC Harrison County (aka Wolf Summit) gas-fired combined-cycle plant is in preconstruction near Clarksburg. It is expected to have a capacity of about 579 MW. That facility already carries clear economic promise: The project has been projected to create roughly 400 construction jobs and 30 permanent operations jobs, while generating an estimated $10 million annually in tax revenue for Harrison County. On previous versions of the plan, developers placed the capital cost near $615 million.
WV Severance Tax Collections Up 10.8% Thx to NatGas Price, Production - Marcellus Drilling News - According to West Virginia Deputy Revenue Secretary Mark Muchow, the state’s severance tax collections are rebounding, with $82.2 million collected so far this fiscal year, representing a 10.8% increase over the same period last year. The rise reflects higher natural gas prices—up about 50% from last year. Production is up too—a 5.5% increase—which helps. Coal production is up, though prices, especially for metallurgical coal, have declined. September collections alone were $51.7 million, exceeding estimates by $16.3 million.
FERC finds MVP Southgate expansion may be redundant, no significant environmental impact | Underground Construction — The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has released its long-awaited Environmental Assessment (EA) for Mountain Valley Pipeline LLC’s proposed Southgate Amendment Project, concluding that while the project would not cause significant environmental harm, it may be unnecessary given competing infrastructure already in development. The 107-page analysis, issued Oct. 3, assesses Mountain Valley’s plan to build a 31-mile, 30-inch natural gas pipeline from Pittsylvania County, Va., to Rockingham County, N.C., increasing capacity from 375,000 dekatherms per day to 550,000 Dth/d. FERC staff said the project’s approval “would not constitute a major federal action significantly affecting the quality of the human environment” but noted an alternative system—the Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (SSE)—could provide similar service with fewer environmental impacts. The report highlights that the Lambert compressor station and roughly 44 miles of previously authorized pipeline have been removed from the revised route, reducing land disturbance by more than half compared with the original 2020 certification. Construction would begin in late 2026 with an in-service target of mid-2028. While the EA concludes that Mountain Valley’s environmental safeguards and mitigation plans are adequate, FERC staff questioned the economic and operational necessity of the expansion. The analysis finds that Williams’ SSE line could “supply the same downstream customers served by Southgate while avoiding duplicative right-of-way disturbance,” effectively rendering the new build redundant if the SSE proceeds.
SC Landowners Receive Notice of Survey Work for Elba Express Pipe - Marcellus Drilling News - In April, MDN told you about a new greenfield expansion of Kinder Morgan’s Elba Express pipeline into South Carolina to serve growing demand for natural gas in the state (see KM Pipes Update: Expand Elba to SC; SSE4 Survey Work Done). The $431 million Elba Express Bridge project is designed to provide 325 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of firm transportation capacity to a new gas-fired power plant in Colleton County, SC (see SC PSC Approves Gas-Fired Power Plant Proposed for Edisto River). Letters have been sent to 185 landowners in South Carolina along the proposed route, requesting permission to survey their land for the project.
Senate panel sets vote on pipeline safety bill - The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee will vote this week on bipartisan legislation to reauthorize the nation’s pipeline safety regulator. The panel will consider the yet-to-be-released bill, the “PIPELINE Safety Act of 2025,” from Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and ranking member Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.).The legislation is the first effort from the committee to reauthorize the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration’s safety programs since 2020.“Pipelines are the safest and most effective way to transport massive quantities of American oil and natural gas,” Cruz said in May. “As we look to craft legislation reauthorizing PHMSA, we need to ensure unnecessary regulations are not impeding America’s energy dominance.”
Crackdown on pipeline protests could get vote at markup -A Republican effort to crack down on protests and disruptions around pipeline projects could get a vote in a Senate committee Wednesday, sparking alarm among environmentalists. A draft amendment by Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) would greatly expand the definition of criminal pipeline sabotage, which is currently defined as “willfully damaging or destroying” a facility. Such acts are punishable by up to 20 years in prison. Sheehy’s measure, a copy of which was shared with POLITICO’s E&E News, would extend criminality — and 20 years in prison — to any action that is willfully “damaging, destroying, vandalizing, tampering with, disrupting the construction or operation of, or preventing the operation or construction of” pipelines. The amendment could get a vote at a markup of a bipartisan pipeline safety bill Wednesday. Sheehy’s office did not respond to a request for comment asking whether he planned to offer it. Earlier this year, Sheehy introduced a bill, S. 1017, that mirrors the language of the new amendment.
FERC Cuts Pipeline Challenge Rule; Result is Faster Construction -- Marcellus Drilling News -- One of the environmental left’s favorite tactics to defeat fossil fuel projects is to challenge every single infrastructure project (pipeline or otherwise) connected to fossil energy at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). As soon as a company files an application to build a new project, and FERC approves it, Big Green will challenge it, first at FERC, and eventually via the courts. FERC has an internal rule, called Order No. 871, that states a company cannot begin construction (even though FERC has approved the certificate) until all such legal challenges are resolved, which can take YEARS. Which is the point—delay, and eventually, some of the projects will give up and won’t build. Run out the clock. Two days ago, FERC issued a new rule eliminating Order No. 871 rule, meaning construction can now begin months and years sooner, even while appeals continue. The enviro-left just lost one of its most potent weapons.
Rhode Island Communities Vote Against NatGas Hookup Moratorium - Marcellus Drilling News - The chickens are now coming home to roost in Communist Rhode Island. In 2021, the state voted to phase out the use of all fossil energy by everyone in the state by 2050–the so-called Act on Climate. Now that the state’s Energy Facility Siting Board is attempting to take the first baby steps to comply by blocking new gas hookups on Aquidneck Island, communities on the island are voting to resist the hookup ban, claiming other communities “up the pipeline” are not being asked to sacrifice their new hookups. It’s all devolving into a major food fight.
Energy Cos. Spending $50B Next 5 Years on New NatGas Pipelines - Marcellus Drilling News - Energy companies are set to invest nearly $50?billion over the next five years in building or expanding 8,800 miles of U.S. natural gas pipelines to meet soaring domestic consumption, record LNG exports, and growing data center demand, greatly aided by regulatory changes under President Trump. Surging gas production, particularly in the Permian Basin as a byproduct of crude oil output, has outpaced pipeline and processing capacity, resulting in occasional negative Waha prices and production slowdowns. Major operators, such as Kinder Morgan and Enbridge, face record backlogs but continue to expand, especially in Texas and the Gulf Coast, with future gas growth tied to sustained oil prices.
Commonwealth LNG Asks FERC for Extra 4 Years to Build - Marcellus Drilling News - Commonwealth LNG is developing a 9.5 MTPA (million tonnes per annum) liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal project located near Cameron, Louisiana. In September, Commonwealth announced it had signed a deal with EQT Corporation to provide 1.0 MTPA of LNG for EQT to resell (see EQT Signs Third Deal to *Buy* LNG – This One Commonwealth LNG). Commonwealth, in its press release, stated that with the EQT deal, it now has sufficient commitments (5.0 out of 9.5 MTPA) to proceed with a final investment decision (FID), which it plans to make by the end of this year. However, Commonwealth just asked the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) for more time to build.
Commonwealth LNG Pushes Louisiana Project Completion to 2031 -Commonwealth LNG, a project proposed for Louisiana and originally supposed to be up and running by 2027, will take until 2031 to complete, the company behind it has warned in a request for an extension to its deadline. The company blamed the temporary ban on new liquefied natural gas capacity that the Biden administration imposed on the industry in its final year, following a report by an environmentalist that claimed LNG is more harmful than coal for the atmosphere. The Trump administration canceled the ban this year, but that was not soon enough for Commonwealth LNG, the company said in its letter to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. “These delays were beyond the control of Commonwealth and unavoidably affected Commonwealth’s ability to advance the Project on the schedule contemplated when its application was filed,” the company said, as quoted by Reuters. The Commonwealth LNG facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, will have an annual capacity of 9.5 million tons of liquefied gas. The construction of the first phase will cost $11 billion, according to Commonwealth LNG and generate annual export revenues of some $3.5 billion. However, the company has yet to make the final investment decision on the project, it said in September, after it secured its export license from the Department of Energy. Also in September, Commonwealth LNG secured a long-term supply deal with EQT for 1 million tons of LNG from its future Louisiana plant, bringing the total volume committed to future deliveries to 5 million tons, under deals with Japan’s JERA, Malaysian Petronas, and Glencore, in addition to EQT. This leaves 4.5 million tons yet to be contracted to secure the viability of the project, unless project developer Kimmeridge sticks to its commitment to offtake 2 million tons of LNG per year from the facility.
BP Arbitration Win Raises Stakes in Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass Disputes An international business tribunal has sided with BP plc in its arbitration with Venture Global Inc. over contracted cargoes from Calcasieu Pass LNG. At A Glance:
Court renders decision in second Calcasieu Pass case
BP seeks more than $1 billion in damages
Other pending arbitration cases loom Lower 48 LNG Exports Near 2025 Highs as Record Volumes Sail to Europe — LNG Recap --While the specter of natural gas price volatility this winter is increasing with weather forecasts and supply risks in Europe, a surge of U.S. LNG on the water is helping to temper the market.Chart and map of Lower 48 LNG export facilities tracking daily natural gas feedstock flows to sites for market intelligence. At A Glance:
U.S. LNG exports rise to 2.43 Mt/week
EU storage levels trend below average
U.S. arbitrage favors Europe through 2026
Port Arthur LNG Gains New 2.5 Bcf/d Feed Gas Artery -Private midstream operator Arm Energy Holdings LLC said Thursday it would move ahead with a $2.3 billion pipeline project to move more natural gas to the Texas coast to meet growing demand. Stacked area chart showing North America’s operational and sanctioned LNG facility peak export capacity from 2016 through 2033, measured in billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d). The chart illustrates steady growth from around 0 Bcf/d in 2016 to nearly 40 Bcf/d projected by 2033. Major U.S., Mexican, and Canadian LNG export projects are labeled, including Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cameron, Freeport, Calcasieu Pass, Golden Pass, Plaquemines, Port Arthur, Rio Grande, and LNG Canada. Data compiled by NGI from the U.S. Department of Energy and EIA. At A Glance:
System would move gas from Tres Palacios
Completion set by 2029
Open season scheduled for excess capacity
How Does Expanding U.S. LNG Capacity Impact Natural Gas Storage? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow - Several storage expansions are underway in the Lower 48, particularly along the Gulf Coast. A greenfield project also has recently received federal approval. But financing has been a struggle for some projects, preventing them from being sanctioned and ultimately, brought into the market in a timely manner.Click here to tune into the latest episode of Hub & Flow in which NGI’s Leticia Gonzales, managing director of North American natural gas pricing, hosts Caliche Development Partners CEO Dave Marchese to discuss the optimism and opportunities for natural gas storage development. Gonzales and Marchese discuss the challenges and successes Caliche has found in expanding its assets in Texas and California, as well as the outlook for future storage developments to accommodate rising natural gas demand.
Record Waha Gas Price Crash as Outbound Flows Constrained | RBN Energy -The gas market was rattled by unprecedented events this weekend. Waha cash prices slumped to the lowest levels ever seen this weekend. Outright Waha cash prices averaged negative $5.30/MMBtu during the week ended October 6 according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), down $3.66/MMBtu week-on-week. Prices in the basin were below zero all week and at record lows on Friday after the Permian Highway Pipeline (PHP) outage began (see below). The average Waha cash price on Friday specifically was minus $8.79/MMBtu, which is more than $2/MMBtu below any daily average cash price previously recorded. Cash trading for delivery over the weekend remained extremely low at minus $7.78/MMBtu. Henry Hub cash prices remained steady above $3/MMBtu in early October, so Waha basis has plummeted to below minus $10/MMBtu for Friday-through-Monday as can be seen in the chart above. Major maintenance work on PHP began on October 3 and is scheduled to run through October 16 to perform turbine exchanges at the Praha and Junction compressor stations. Capacity on the pipeline has been reduced by about 1 Bcf/d during the maintenance work. Production, outflows and prices all dropped dramatically on Friday when the work began. The region was already dealing with capacity constraints because of ongoing work on El Paso pipeline and other pipes in the area, which have driven Waha cash prices below zero in recent weeks. The restrictions on PHP have amplified the issues in the basin to an extreme degree. Prices are expected to remain negative until these restrictions are lifted.
Henry Hub Prices Poised to Climb as Winter Nears and LNG Activity Mounts, EIA Says -Natural gas prices at benchmark Henry Hub are likely to advance into the winter and next year amid heating demand and a coming jump in LNG activity, according to the latest federal estimates. Line chart showing U.S. natural gas prices from 2021 through projected 2026, comparing Henry Hub bidweek prices with residential prices. The chart highlights seasonal peaks in residential prices exceeding $20/MMBtu, while Henry Hub remains below $10/MMBtu. Forward projections show modest increases through 2026, based on NGI data and the EIA’s October 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook. At A Glance:EIA sees Henry Hub at $4.10 in January
Agency expects $3.90 average for 2026
Researchers see high production, storage
US natural gas prices rise 1% on strong LNG export demand — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Monday on near-record flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants, a small decline in output and forecasts for more demand this week than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 3.3 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $3.357 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which fell to a record low of minus $7.07 per mmBtu on Thursday, remained in negative territory for a ninth day in a row and an 18th time so far this year due to ongoing pipeline constraints from maintenance work. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected a broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean had an 80% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week as it moves northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands. The NHC also projected a trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico off central Mexico had a 10% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.1 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. There was about 5% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least October 21. That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than the amount of fuel power generators need to burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.4 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while the forecast for next week was lower. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.2 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. That LNG export feedgas increase came as flows to Venture Global LNG's VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana hit a record 3.6 bcfd on Sunday. LNG plants pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of the fuel to power operations. Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker benchmark in Asia.
US Natgas Jumps 4% to 11-Week High On Daily Output Drop, Short Covering (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 4% to an 11-week high on Tuesday on a drop in daily output and some technical short covering. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.1 cents, or 4.2%, to settle at $3.498 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since July 18. Futures prices were also supported because some short sellers needed to cover positions in recent days, analysts said, noting speculative short positions on the NYMEX reached a 10-month high last week. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for a 10th day in a row as ongoing pipeline maintenance, like work on Kinder Morgan’s Permian Highway, trapped gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin. That was the 19th time Waha prices have dropped below zero so far this year and compares with an average of $1.41 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023). Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Jerry would strengthen into a hurricane on Wednesday as it marches northwest toward the northern Caribbean Islands and then north toward Bermuda over the next week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary four-month low of 104.4 bcfd on Tuesday. That compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to slide to a preliminary two-week low of 15.5 bcfd on Tuesday due mostly to a decline in flows to Cheniere Energy’s 4.5-bcfd Sabine plant in Louisiana to around 3.9 bcfd, down from an average of 4.6 bcfd over the prior seven days, according to LSEG data.
U.S. natural gas prices drop 5% on smaller daily output decline, ample gas in storage - (Reuters) – U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Wednesday on a smaller than previously forecast drop in output and ample supplies of gas in storage, prompting some traders to take profits after prices rose to an 11-week high in the prior session. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 16.5 cents, or 4.7%, to settle at $3.333 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since July 18. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas turned positive on Tuesday for the first time in 11 days. Analysts said in a note that Waha prices likely turned positive as some producers decided to shut wells and wait for pipeline maintenance to end rather than continue paying others to take their gas. In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Jerry would strengthen into a hurricane on Friday after it passes the northern Caribbean Islands and then turns northeast toward Bermuda and the open Atlantic Ocean by early next week. The NHC also projected a disorganized trough of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico off Mexico's east coast had a 10% chance of strengthening into a tropical cyclone over the next seven days. Neither tropical system was expected to hit the U.S. mainland over the next week. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.4 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary 13-week low of 104.7 bcfd on Wednesday. Wednesday's projected daily output was higher than forecast on Tuesday and compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28. Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through October 23. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 99.7 bcfd this week to 98.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
US Natgas Prices Fall after EIA Report --US natural gas futures fell to around $3.22/MMBtu, retreating from an 11-week high of $3.5 on October 7 after a larger-than-expected storage build. The US Energy Information Administration reported an 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) injection into storage for the week ended October 3, above the 77-bcf forecast and slightly higher than last year’s 78 bcf, though below the five-year average of 94 bcf. Meanwhile, output in the Lower 48 states eased to 106.3 bcfd so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September. Still, record production earlier this year allowed firms to inject more gas than usual, leaving storage about 5% above normal for this time of year. LNG exports averaged 16.1 bcfd in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast mostly near-normal weather through October 24.
US natgas prices drop 5% to 2-week low on milder weather forecasts — U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 5% on Friday to a two-week low, on ample amounts of fuel in storage and forecasts for mild weather that should keep heating and cooling demand low over the next two weeks. Front-month gas futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 16.3 cents, or 5.0%, to settle at $3.106 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since September 26. For the week, the contract fell about 7%. Looking forward, the market is showing signs that traders are not worried about having enough gas supplies for the winter, with the premium of futures for March over April 2026 (NGH26-J26) on track to fall to a record low of around 10 cents per mmBtu. The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business. Notably, the Amaranth hedge fund lost more than $6 billion in 2006. Traders use the March-April and October-November (NGV26-X26) spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter-heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 25. That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas. The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 16.1 bcfd so far in October from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April. On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to rise to a preliminary eight-week high of 16.5 bcfd even though Berkshire Hathaway Energy's 0.8-bcfd Cove Point plant in Maryland remained shut for planned maintenance. Analysts noted LNG feedgas was near record highs as new units entered service at Venture Global LNG's VG 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines facility in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas. In other LNG news, BP BP. won its arbitration case against Venture Global over the U.S. supplier's failure to deliver LNG under a long-term contract that was due to start in late 2022.
EIA Oct. STEO Cuts NatGas Spot Price by $0.40 to $3.90 for 2026 -- Marcellus Drilling News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) yesterday. The STEO is the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will head in the next 12 months. In this latest assessment, EIA dropped its estimates for the Henry Hub spot price for 2025, again, as it has for months. The agency expects the HH spot price to average $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, $0.10 lower than last month’s forecast (and $0.30 below the prediction from three months ago). EIA also dropped its 2026 forecast, quite radically, lowering it by $0.40 to $3.90/MMBtu. Hence, our suspicion that sometimes the data crunchers haul out the breakroom dartboard to help with forecasts.
Louisiana AG calls for DOJ to end oil spill lawsuits - Louisiana’s Republican attorney general is urging the Justice Department to dismiss all litigation it has filed against insurers for oil spill cleanup costs. Elizabeth Murrill wrote in a recent letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi that the lawsuits pose a threat to the “epicenter” of the oil and gas industry. The lawsuits were filed under the Oil Pollution Act, which assigns liability for oil spills and establishes a cleanup fund known as the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund. “The actions of the U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) in filing lawsuits during the waning days of the Biden Administration against insurance underwriters is precisely the type of action DOJ should immediately dismiss,” Murrill wrote. Murrill pointed specifically to a 2024 case, where the U.S. Coast Guard, the Interior Department and NOAA sued to recover more than $128 million in removal costs and interest for the continued cleanup of a collapsed offshore oil platform owned by Taylor Energy.
EIA Raises U.S. Oil Output Forecast, Warns Oversupply Could Crush Prices -- The United States is on track to break yet another oil production record this year, but the Energy Information Administration (EIA) says the resulting supply glut could drag prices lower in the months ahead.In its October outlook, the EIA raised its forecast for U.S. crude production to13.53 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025, up from a forecast of 13.44 million bpd previously. That’s well above last year’s record 13.23 million bpd and reflects stronger-than-expected output in July, along with faster ramp-ups from new offshore Gulf of Mexico projects. The Gulf region alone is now expected to average 1.89 million bpd this year, a 50,000-barrel increase from prior forecasts as several developments came online earlier than anticipated.The EIA said that while record production will keep global markets well supplied, it also risks tipping the balance toward surplus. “We expect global oil inventories to rise through 2026, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months,” the agency warned in its report. It expects West Texas Intermediate crude to average about $65 per barrel this year—roughly 15% below 2024 levels—while Brent is projected to average $68.64.The new forecast shows U.S. crude output reached 13.2 million bpd in 2024, led by growth in the Permian Basin and the Gulf of Mexico. But the EIA has noted that growth has slowed compared with the million-barrel annual surges seen during the peak shale years, suggesting U.S. producers are nearing the top of their capacity gains.The agency also assumes that only part of OPEC+’s planned production hikes will materialize due to limited spare capacity among members. Even so, inventories are expected to rise by an average of 2.1 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025—enough to keep supply comfortably ahead of demand and pressure prices further.If those barrels flood the market too quickly, the next big oil problem may not be scarcity—it’ll be surplus.
Oil industry layoffs widen as crude prices sink --Oil and gas companies are cutting costs and firing thousands of employees as analysts and government forecasters warn that crude prices could shrink to their lowest levels since Covid-19 shutdowns caused oil demand to crater five years ago. BP, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have all outlined large-scale layoffs planned this year. And Bloomberg reported last week that Exxon Mobil, the nation’s biggest oil and gas company, plans to ax 2,000 jobs from its global workforce as part of an efficiency push.Analysts say oil companies of all sizes are tightening their belts ahead of 2026, when the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts prices could average about $52 for a barrel of global benchmark Brent crude. A recent Wood Mackenzie survey of 32 oil companies found they usually need Brent prices to be around $60 a barrel to break even and continue paying dividends to shareholders. Brent oil spot prices have fallen this year from a monthly average of $79.27 a barrel in January to $67.99 a barrel in September, according to EIA. On Tuesday, Brent crude was trading for about $65.
West Texas doesn’t get all the fuss about an oil crash - — Warnings of doom and gloom have been hovering over the U.S. oil and gas industry for months, but don’t tell that to people in the Permian Basin.Traffic near the New Mexico-Texas state line backs up with fracking crews and water haulers making their way to remote drilling sites. Trailer parks are filled with oil field workers near the towns of Pecos and Kermit. Drivers hum in and out of gas stations, grabbing snacks and energy drinks. The Permian Basin — the most productive onshore oil region in North America — has been a linchpin for the Trump administration’s plans for “energy dominance.” While the basin is churning out near-record amounts of oil this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration has warned that domestic production may dip by as much as 100,000 barrels a day next year amid lower oil prices. Some executives suggested that U.S. oil production may have already peaked, while companies such as Chevron and ConocoPhillips have announced job cuts.“I would say that the death of the Permian oil field has been declared many times in the past, and it hasn’t happened yet,” said Sara Harris, executive director of the Midland Development Corp., a nonprofit that provides local economic development incentives.That optimism in the face of bleak oil price projections and economic concerns helps President Donald Trump retain support in West Texas. According to POLITICO’s election results tally, Trump won 94 percent of the vote in Glasscock County, located just east of Midland, and had more than 80 percent support in 12 of the 17 counties in the Permian Basin Workforce Board Development area. His support is weaker in Texas overall, with the Texas Politics Project showing the president’s job approval rating down from 52 percent in February to 43 percent in August.Much of West Texas’ support could be chalked up to Trump’s support of the oil and gas industry and regional politics, said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston. Harris said more than half of jobs in Midland are directly or indirectly tied to the oil and gas industry — a proportion that grows higher in more rural parts of the Permian like Fort Stockton, Pecos and Monahans.“Everyone has to pick a team, and the Republicans generally are going to be more favorable towards the oil industry than the Democrats,” Rottinghaus said. “I think that’s probably the biggest factor.” Trump made a high-profile visit to West Texas in July 2020, saying he would defend the oil industry’s jobs. In a recent statement to POLITICO’s E&E News, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said record high oil production in the U.S. and in Texas has been spurred by the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce bureaucracy in the oil field. “President Trump is providing producers with the resources they need to unleash innovation, reduce breakeven costs, and lead in global energy markets to provide affordable and reliable energy,” Rogers wrote. “President Trump is making the U.S. the powerhouse of oil and gas production once again, and we will continue to ‘DRILL, BABY, DRILL.'”Overall employment, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, grew by 2.5 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter in the Midland-Odessa region, compared to job growth of 1.1 percent in the U.S. and 1.6 percent across Texas. Average hourly earnings in the region jumped by 9.9 percent over the same period to an average of $37.23, while home sales volume climbed 9.9 percent in June 2025 compared to June 2024.But on paper, it doesn’t seem like the oil and gas industry is growing in the Permian.The number of drilling rigs active in the Permian region was down to 251 as of Oct. 3, a decrease of 53 rigs from a year prior, according to Baker Hughes. But oil production in Texas is up from about 5.7 million barrels a day in July 2024 to about 5.8 million barrels in July 2025, according to EIA.EIA forecast that U.S. oil production could stay around a record 13.6 million barrels a day in December. But that could start slipping as Brent oil prices are expected to drop to around $50 a barrel by early 2026, the agency said in its short-term energy outlook. Domestic production could ultimately rise in 2027 or 2028 thanks largely to increases in production in the Permian, according to a longer-term outlook from EIA that uses multiple oil-price scenarios.More than half of oil and gas executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed in the third quarter said their business outlooks have worsened compared to one year ago. About half of the respondents to the Dallas Fed reported decreases in their levels of business activity compared to the third quarter of 2024.
Dallas Fed Survey Flags Theft in the Oil Field | Rigzone --Forty-one percent of executives said their operations have been impacted by theft in the oil field in the past year, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said in a third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey page posted on its website recently. The remaining 59 percent said they have not been impacted, the Dallas Fed stated on its site. Survey participants were asked, “in the past year, have your operations been impacted by theft in the oil field”, the Dallas Fed highlighted, noting that executives from 80 exploration and production firms answered this question during the survey collection period. This spanned from September 10 to September 18, the site pointed out. Exploration and production executives who said their operations have been impacted by theft in the oil field in the past year were then asked, “what items have been stolen over the past year”, the site highlighted. The most selected response was ‘crude oil’, with 61 percent of respondents, according to the site, which revealed that ‘piping valves and wiring’ was the second most selected response, with 58 percent of respondents, and ‘equipment’ was the third most selected response, with 39 percent of respondents. Executives from 33 exploration and production firms answered this question during the survey collection period, the Dallas Fed revealed. E&P executives who said their operations have been impacted by theft in the oil field in the past year were also asked, “how would you rate the impact of this theft on your firm’s operations”, the site revealed. Well above 70 percent of respondents said “low”, with around 15 percent responding “medium”, and under 10 percent responding “high”, the site pointed out. No respondents checked the “no impact” response, according to the site. Executives from 33 exploration and production firms also answered this question during the survey collection period, the Dallas Fed revealed. A statement posted on the Office of the Texas Governor’s website back in June announced that Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed oilfield theft protection and pro-growth legislation into law. “Governor Greg Abbott … signed into law key legislation to protect Texas’ oil and gas industry and promote economic growth across West Texas, including Senate Bill 494, Senate Bill 529, Senate Bill 1806, House Bill 48, and the Beacon Budget Appropriation, during a bill signing ceremony at the Permian Basin Petroleum Museum,” the statement noted. Senate Bill 494 “establishes a petroleum product theft task force”, Senate Bill 529 “alters the tax code for the City of Midland to divert certain collected tax revenue for economic development projects”, Senate Bill 1806 “provides the Texas Department of Public Safety with additional tools to combat oil and gas theft”, and House Bill 48 “creates an organized oilfield theft prevention unit within DPS to protect oilfield assets, support the energy industry, safeguard economic stability, and enhance public safety”, the statement highlighted. “We are bringing the full weight of the law to crack down on oil theft in the Permian Basin to protect the critical role energy development plays in fueling our economy,” Abbott added. The Dallas Fed conducts the Dallas Fed Energy Survey quarterly to obtain a timely assessment of energy activity among oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District, the Dallas Fed stated in the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey page on its site, adding that the Eleventh District encompasses Texas, northern Louisiana, and southern New Mexico.
Over 40 Trump administration appointees have direct ties to oil, gas, coal sectors: Report US President Donald Trump appointed dozens of officials with ties to the fossil fuel industry to his administration, including more than 40 from oil, gas, or coal companies, according to a recent report. An Oct. 6 Public Citizen and the Revolving Door Project report examined the backgrounds of nominees and appointees to the White House and eight key agencies overseeing energy, environment, and climate policy. The agencies include the Environmental Protection Agency, as well as the Interior and Energy departments, Britain’s The Guardian reported on Wednesday. The report identified 111 "fossil fuel insiders and renewable energy opponents," including 43 who worked directly for coal, oil, or gas companies, such as Energy Secretary Chris Wright, former CEO of the fracking company Liberty Energy. It also named lesser-known officials, including a former fracking executive now heading the Energy Department’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, who reportedly told staff to avoid terms like "climate change" and "emissions." A senior White House policy adviser also previously held senior positions at major oil companies, including Shell. Trump has repeatedly called climate change a "hoax," and since taking office has moved to remove official climate change data from government websites, worked to eliminate any mention of it in government documents, and sought to zero out any public funding for research into the climate crisis. Researchers found 12 officials linked to fossil fuel-funded right-wing think tanks, such as the Texas Public Policy Foundation and Americans for Prosperity, an anti-environmental group founded by Charles and David Koch, the brothers who founded Koch Industries, the second-largest privately held company in the US. (David Koch died in 2019.) Another 29 were former executives from polluting industries tied to fossil fuels, including chemicals, automaking, and mining, while others had links to utility companies or politicians promoting pro-coal, oil, and gas policies. The Interior Department emerged as the most compromised agency, with 32 employees linked to polluting energy. It includes Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, a former North Dakota governor with longstanding oil industry ties who leases land to Continental Resources, led by major Trump donor Harold Hamm. On his first day in office, using the slogan "Drill baby drill," Trump announced plans to boost domestic fossil fuel production and withdraw from the Paris Agreement, later rolling back and canceling funding for renewable energy incentives – even projects nearing completion – and expanding drilling and mining on federal lands.
California says offshore oil drilling company cut corners in restart | Courthouse News Service — California accused an offshore oil drilling company of repeatedly discharging waste into inland waters near Santa Barbara without a permit in its rush to bring its drilling operations back online. In a complaint filed Friday night in Santa Barbara County Superior Court on behalf of the Central Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board, state Attorney General Rob Bonta accuses Sable Offshore Corp. of purposely not applying for permits to discharge waste — mostly dirt and vegetation into waterways, discharge that “could affect water quality in the rich aquatic and riparian habitat of Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties.” “By avoiding the imposition of waste discharge requirements and associated regulatory oversight of its activities until after the work was completed, Sable placed profits over environmental protection in its rush to get oil on the market,” Bonta says in the complaint. A spokesperson for Sable did not respond to an email requesting comment on the lawsuit. The lawsuit is just the latest emanating from the controversial resumption of oil drilling operations off the coast of Santa Barbara. Known as the Santa Ynez Unit, the project comprises three platforms — Hondo, Harmony and Heritage — as well as an onshore processing facility at Las Flores Canyon. In 2015, a section of one of the pipelines connecting the facilities, which had become corroded, failed, bursting open and sending 142,800 gallons of crude into the Pacific Ocean. The massive spill killed hundreds of birds and marine mammals and led to criminal charges being filed against Plains All American Pipeline, which owned the pipeline at the time. Plains was forced to pay a stiff fine and sold the pipeline to ExxonMobil in 2022, which then sold it to Sable in 2024. Sable finally resumed drilling operations in May, but not before suing the California Coastal Commission, which had attempted to block the restart. An environmental group has sued the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement, challenging the agency’s renewal of offshore drilling leases. And last month, Santa Barbara’s district attorney filed criminal charges against Sable Offshore Corp. for environmental violations, including five felony counts that the company “knowingly discharging dredged or fill material into waters of the United States.” Bonta, in the lawsuit seeking civil penalties, takes aim at the same alleged violations. Under the terms of a federal consent decree, Sable had to retrofit two pipelines running from a pumping station on the beach to another station 40 miles inland by installing safety check valves and make repairs to 144 anomalies. To do so, it had to perform a “pig and dig” operation, which involved excavating certain sections of the line, which meant clearing roads and vegetation. Some of these repair sites were within stream beds and channels designated as “Waters of the State” and “Waters of the United States.” Because of that, Sable had to get permits for the excavation. Sable, Bonta says in the complaint, “knew waste discharge requirements were necessary for excavation activity that could affect water quality but chose to ignore Sable’s obligation to obtain them” at 14 different sites.
‘North to the Future’ as Alaska Readies LNG Exports and Bids to Power Digital Frontier -- Alaska has been known for years as an oil and natural gas powerhouse. Now, as an LNG project nears sanctioning and global data center demand explodes, the governor wants the world to view the state as more than a resource state. At A Glance:
LNG exports planned alongside in-state supply
State’s climate cuts cooling costs
Fiber links to boost global connectivity
LNG Canada Starting Up Second Train with Unit’s First Cargo Expected Soon -- LNG Canada on Tuesday began the process of bringing its second liquefaction train online as it works toward ramping up to full capacity.
Other North American LNG Netbacks chart. At A Glance:
Startup activities began Tuesday
Vessel scheduled to arrive Friday
Output to hit full capacity in 2026
Amigo LNG Targets Year-end FID, First Exports from Mexico’s Guaymas Port in 2028 - The partnership behind the proposed Amigo LNG terminal told U.S. regulators the floating export facility is targeted to begin shipping U.S. gas volumes from the Mexican coast within the next three years.
Map showing the proposed Amigo LNG export facility near Guaymas, Mexico, highlighting NGI’s Mexico gas price index locations, major import and export points, and operational and proposed natural gas pipelines. The map connects the Amigo LNG terminal to regional pipeline systems and major hubs such as the Waha Hub in Texas. At A Glance:
Amigo could begin exports in October 2028
Timeline aligns with Waha price increases
70% of Train 1 capacity under contract
High Costs, Low Prices Threaten to Stall Argentina’s Shale Ambitions -- Argentina’s prized shale basin Vaca Muerta, once hailed as the key to transforming the country into a global energy exporter, is now facing a period of stagnation and uncertainty. Lower oil prices, rising costs, and policy constraints have slowed drilling and fracking, raising questions about whether the formation can deliver the government’s ambitious export goals.According to Reuters, drilling and fracking activity in Vaca Muerta — the world’s fourth-largest unconventional oil reserve — has begun to plateau, with the number of wells in the Neuquén Basin falling for three straight months. Benchmark oil prices around $65 per barrel, down from $90 in April 2024, have eroded margins, while production costs in the basin are 35–40% higher than in the U.S. Permian. Analysts blame inflation, expensive financing, and soaring labor and service costs.Vaca Muerta remains critical to President Javier Milei’s economic strategy, contributing 64% of Argentina’s oil output but with only 8% of the basin developed. Slower growth threatens Milei’s pledge to double energy exports to $30 billion by 2030. Major producers including Chevron, Tecpetrol, and TotalEnergies have urged the government to lift foreign currency controls and ensure export stability, while ExxonMobil is reportedly scaling back operations.Despite headwinds, state oil company YPF is pushing ahead with an aggressive expansion plan. CEO Horacio Marín confirmed the company aims to operate 19 drilling rigs by 2026, nearly doubling production wells to 4,000 and supporting the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline, which will link the basin to an export terminal on Argentina’s Atlantic coast.Yet the scale of investment needed remains staggering. A new study by the Argentine Institute of Oil and Gas (IAPG), cited by BNamericas, estimates that between 2025 and 2040, Argentina will require over 100,000 kilometers of new pipelines and dozens of new gas and oil processing plants to sustain growth. Access to financing and capital-market liberalization, the IAPG warns, will be “critical” for meeting medium and high-growth scenarios.For now, the shale giant’s future hinges on whether Argentina can reduce costs, attract foreign capital, and build the infrastructure needed to turn geological promise into lasting prosperity.
Global LNG Fuel Demand for Ships to Double by 2030 -Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a marine fuel is projected to at least double by 2030 as abundant global supply and tougher emission norms accelerate fleet conversions. Singapore led LNG bunkering volumes in Q3 2025, followed by China and the Netherlands. According to Rystad Energy, global LNG bunkering may exceed 4 million tonnes by end-2025 and double by 2030. Ship certifier DNV estimates the number of LNG-ready vessels will rise from 781 today to over 1,400 by 2030...
Natural Gas: Prices in Europe Move Higher --Natural gas prices in Europe reported their biggest daily gain since mid-June amid supply risks and favourable weather forecasts. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia left the price of its main crude oil grade for Asia unchanged, while trimming it for buyers in the US and Europe ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI continued their upward rally in the early trading session today amid persistent risks to Russian oil supplies and a moderate output hike by OPEC+. Meanwhile, the Brent prompt timespread strengthened slightly and traded in a backwardation of $0.42/bbl this morning, compared to $0.37/bbl at the end of last week. The Saudis released their latest official selling prices (OSPs) for November loadings. It shows that the premium for their flagship Arab Light crude into Asia was left unchanged at US$2.20/bbl over the benchmark. The decision comes after OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 137k b/d in November, and it also contrasts with the average market expectations of an increase of US$0.30/bbl. OSPs for all grades into the US and Europe were reduced by US$0.50/bbl and US$1.20/bbl, respectively, reflecting expectations of slower demand. European natural gas prices ended higher with TTF futures rising by 5.3% to settle above EUR33/MWh yesterday. Prices remain supported amid persistent risks to supplies, along with expectations of colder weather conditions driving up demand. Recent reports suggest that Russia has intensified air strikes across Ukraine, further damaging gas infrastructure. Meanwhile, recent weather forecasts suggest colder-than-normal temperatures in the coming months, which might slow down the fuel injections, as the region braces for the start of the heating season. Meanwhile, EU storage is now almost 83% full, down from 94.4% at the same time last year and below the five-year average of 90.4%.
Colder Weather Could Test European Natural Gas Supplies This Winter — Three Things to Know About the LNG Market-- Russian strikes against energy infrastructure in recent days have eliminated over half of Ukraine’s natural gas production, which could tighten the European market heading into winter. Image showing a comprehensive market analysis of the European Union’s gas storage levels with graphs representing trends in inventories, highlighting key insights into energy market dynamics and gas data projections for the near future. Bloomberg cited anonymous sources in reporting the country could need to buy more than $2 billion of natural gas imports to replace production assets destroyed by the attacks. Ukraine has also reportedly made pleas to European powers for equipment to repair its energy system.
Europe’s Gas Storage Push Lifts U.S. LNG Exports to 6-Month High — The Offtake -- A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers
- 2.36 Mt: U.S. LNG exports have risen to the highest point in six months as European buyers move to fill storage. NGI’s European Union Gas Storage data show stocks are 82.9% full as of Monday (Oct. 6), below the 90% requirement ahead of the heating season. Export volumes reached 2.36 million tons (Mt) the week of Sept. 29, according to Kpler data. Almost 67% of all U.S. gas exported during the week headed to Europe. Exports are expected to continue to rise through the month, possibly reaching an annual high of 2.55 Mt by the week of Oct. 13, according to Kpler predictive data.
- 2.5 Bcf/d: Golden Pass Pipeline LLC is seeking permission to place the final compressor station (CS) for its 2.5 Bcf/d natural gas system in-service by Nov. 3, aligning with the commissioning timeline for Train 1 at the Golden Pass export terminal. In a request to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, the firm disclosed that its MP 69 CS in Louisiana had reached mechanical completion. Golden Pass previously told regulators it could begin importing LNG to commission Train 1 as soon as Oct. 1.
- 25%: Sea-LNG Ltd., a coalition of energy producers, ports and equipment manufacturers, estimated coalition members have significantly reduced emissions of liquefied fuel. In a new report, Sea-LNG members estimated well-to-water emissions of LNG cargoes have been reduced 25% in the past six years. Methane emissions from LNG-fueled vessels also decreased by 50% during the same period as engine manufacturers improved technology, researchers wrote in the report. The number of ships using LNG as fuel has increased to 1,406 this year from 159 in 2019.
Europeans Think They Can Regulate Our O&G, LNG Standards - Marcellus Drilling News - The Europeans have tried to regulate the U.S. oil and gas industry for more than a year (see Europeans Presume to Impose Their Regulations on American Gas). You probably know what we think of that. They’re are doing it again. The European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CS3D) imposes strict climate and labor compliance requirements on nearly 17,000 global companies, including about 3,000 large U.S. firms, extending to their suppliers and subcontractors worldwide. American energy companies, particularly LNG exporters, face potential annual compliance costs of up to $2.7 million and fines of 5% of their global revenue for noncompliance, with the possibility of private lawsuits.
Türkiye wants to increase gas imports from Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan --Turkey’s minister of energy and natural resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, has confirmed the country’s intention to buy gas from Russia. In his interview with CNN TÜRK, he explained that ensuring the energy security of citizens is a priority for the government. “We must buy gas from anywhere we can,” he said. With winter approaching, Bayraktar emphasized the need to source gas from Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and elsewhere. “We are striving to increase production of Black Sea gas,” he noted, adding that natural gas production in the Black Sea will quadruple by 2028, reaching 15-16 billion cubic meters annually. Bayraktar reminded that electricity consumers exceeding 5,000 kWh annually have been removed from the support group and said that a similar arrangement is being planned for natural gas. He stated that natural gas consumption will be evaluated on a monthly and city-based average. Turkey’s minister emphasized the country’s strategy to ensure supply security through diversification and recalled Türkiye’s prediction in 2016 about a global LNG surplus. “Back then, our daily gasification capacity was 30 million cubic meters. Today, we’ve increased this to 161 million cubic meters – a five-fold increase.” Referring to president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s meeting with U.S. president Donald Trump at the White House, Bayraktar said it was held in a sincere and constructive atmosphere, adding: “The meeting was very productive.” He noted that all issues between the two countries were discussed during the meeting. According to Bayraktar, Türkiye signed agreements to purchase a total of 143 billion cubic meters of U.S. LNG, worth $43bn. “They’re saying we buy gas for $600. Divide $43 billion by 143. What do you get? “Those claiming $600 should do the math and explain it to the public. It’s completely false – based on hearsay and incomplete information.”
Qatar LNG Shipments Resume Despite Warnings of Continued Middle East GPS Interference - QatarEnergy has been authorized to continue shipments of LNG through the Persian Gulf after the country’s transportation ministry reacted to reported issues with vessel guidance systems. Map showing major maritime chokepoints around the Arabian Peninsula, including the Strait of Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal. It highlights key crude oil transport routes such as the East-West pipeline across Saudi Arabia and the SUMED pipeline connecting the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). At A Glance:
Concentrated GPS issues reported across region
Qatari transportation officials resumed traffic Monday
Supply risks build as benchmarks rally
Anchor failure cited in Singapore’s worst oil spill in a decade – Investigators found that the anchors on Netherlands-flagged dredging boat Vox Maxima could not be deployed, partially causing it to strike another vessel, which resulted in the worst oil spill here in a decade. Other causes identified in the investigation report included a lack of proper handover processes and the absence of a task-recording system. On June 14, 2024, Vox Maxima lost engine and steering control and hit Singapore-flagged bunker vessel Marine Honour, which was berthed at Pasir Panjang Terminal. This caused 400 tonnes of oil to leak into the sea, staining the beaches at East Coast Park, Labrador Nature Reserve, Keppel Bay, the Southern Islands and Sentosa. Clean-up operations, jointly organised by the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore (MPA), National Parks Board, National Environment Agency and Sentosa Development Corporation, took over two months to complete. Investigations were completed on Aug 15 and TSIB’s report was published on Aug 21. Investigations showed that on the morning of June 14, 2024, the crew of Vox Maxima opened the circuit breakers on the right of the vessel to conduct an equipment inspection. Article continues after this advertisement But they failed to restore the electric current in both circuit breakers when Vox Maxima prepared to depart the Western Working Anchorage near Sentosa for the ST Marine Shipyard in Tuas at 1.58pm. The crew at the time included two local harbour pilots from service provider PSA Marine. Harbour pilots help to navigate vessels safely into and out of ports. The dredger left the anchorage at a speed of 13.9kmh at around 2.08pm. As it entered the West Keppel Fairway near Pasir Panjang Terminal, it gradually increased its speed to 17.6kmh. One of the two harbour pilots on Vox Maxima saw that Super Hero was 1.9km ahead, and tried to radio its harbour pilot to inform him that Vox Maxima was approaching, but did not receive any response. At around 2.09pm, the harbour pilot on Vox Maxima reported to the Pasir Panjang control centre that he planned to keep Super Hero on the right when passing it. There was still no response from Super Hero. At 18 seconds past 2.12pm, the Vox Maxima crew started a hydraulic power unit to speed up the emptying of seawater to ensure safe passage towards the shipyard. But this immediately caused a blackout on Vox Maxima. Super Hero was estimated to pass to the right of Vox Maxima in about 2 minutes 24 seconds. The crew on Vox Maxima then realised they had lost steering control of the vessel. It was moving at 19.8kmh at 57 seconds past 2.12pm, while steering towards the right. Its harbour pilot reported to the control centre at 2.13pm that the vessel had encountered an engine failure, and radio broadcasts were made to all nearby vessels. Shortly after, he advised the crew to lower the left-side anchor, but it remained stuck even after a crew member struck the brake and anchor chain with a big hammer. At 19 seconds past 2.14pm, the harbour pilot instructed the crew to release the right-side anchor. As electrical power was unavailable, the hydraulic pump could not be operated to free the anchor. Both anchors could not be deployed, said the report. At 51 seconds after 2.14pm, the harbour pilot requested the crew to reverse the engines so that the vessel could slow down or stop. But this failed as control of the engines had been lost. At that time, Super Hero altered its course to move closer to its left, while Vox Maxima continued turning to its right. At 15 seconds past 2.15pm, Super Hero passed the front of Vox Maxima, narrowly missing it by about 65m. Meanwhile, the dredger, now moving at 15.4kmh, was about 220m from Marine Honour. The harbour pilot on Vox Maxima then called PSA Marine for urgent tug services to navigate the vessel. Electrical power was eventually restored on Vox Maxima at 18 seconds past 2.15pm. The crew then set the engines to move backwards. Vox Maxima then radioed another harbour pilot on a nearby harbour tugboat, PSA Phoenix CS09, to help push the dredger away from Marine Honour, but received no response. At five seconds past 2.16pm, Vox Maxima hit Marine Honour, rupturing one of the oil tanks on the bunker vessel.
Exxon Considers Return to Iraq -Exxon is considering a return to Iraq after leaving the country two years ago, Bloomberg reported, citing an unnamed source who said Exxon was interested in developing the massive Majnoon field. The Majnoon field has estimated reserves of 38 billion barrels, which makes it one of the biggest in the world. According to the companies currently involved in work in the field, additional seismic surveys could uncover more reserves at the field. Exxon confirmed the information in general, telling Bloomberg in a statement that “Exxon Mobil is in discussions with the Iraqi Oil Ministry as we routinely look at opportunities to optimize our advantaged portfolio.” Per the report, a deal could be sealed within days and involve, besides field development, construction of export infrastructure and “potential oil marketing projects”. Reports that the U.S. supermajors were willing to return to OPEC’s number-two producer emerged earlier this year, with officials from the Iraqi oil ministry saying the companies were in talks with the government on the details of that return. “ExxonMobil has conveyed its willingness to return to Iraq,” one undersecretary from the oil ministry said in July. “The Company is currently in a stage of negotiations with Iraq for a new opportunity in the country’s oilfields. These moves are a positive indication of growing interest in Iraq’s oil industry by the US and other companies,” Bassim Khudair said at the time. The U.S. supermajors’ potential return follows the return—or expansion—of European Big Oil, including BP and TotalEnergies. A more recent report, from Bloomberg again, said Exxon was in negotiations with Iraqi SOMO for the construction of crude oil storage facilities closer to demand hubs in Asia, the U.S., and Europe. The Iraqi oil marketing company has been looking for opportunities to set up overseas storage capacity for years.
Opec+ further raises oil production with modest hike from November - Opec+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), it said on Sunday, opting for the same fairly modest monthly increase as in October amid persistent worries over a looming supply glut. The group comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7 million bpd this year, equating to about 2.5 per cent of global demand. The shift in policy after years of cuts is designed to regain market share from rivals such as US shale producers. Brent prices fell below $65 per barrel on Friday as most analysts predict a supply glut in the fourth quarter and in 2026 due to slower demand and rising U.S. supply. Prices are trading below this year’s peaks of $82 per barrel but above $60 per barrel seen in May. In the run-up to the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest producers in the Opec+ group, had different views, sources have said. Russia was advocating for a modest output increase, the same as in October, to avoid pressuring oil prices and because it would struggle to raise output owing to sanctions over its war in Ukraine, two sources said this week. Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even quadruple that figure - 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd or 548,000 bpd respectively, because it has spare capacity and wants to regain market share more quickly, sources said ahead of the meeting. Opec views the global economic outlook as steady and market fundamentals healthy because of low oil inventories, it said in a statement on Sunday. Opec+ output cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million bpd in total. The cuts were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members and a further 2 million bpd by the whole group. The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts - 2.2 million bpd - by the end of September. For October, they started removing the second layer of 1.65 million bpd with the increase of 137,000 bpd. The eight producers will meet again on November 2.
Oil prices climb as OPEC+ approves 137,000 bpd output hike - Oil prices rose on Sunday after OPEC and its allies agreed to a modest increase of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) from November, signalling a cautious approach to production growth amid persistent concerns of oversupply. Brent crude climbed by nearly 1.5 percent to $65.30 per barrel, a 1.19 percent increase, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose to $61.60, a 1.18 percent increase as markets reacted to the smaller-than-expected hike. The output adjustment mirrors that of October and comes after the group dismissed rumours of a more aggressive 500,000 bpd increase. So far this year, OPEC+ has raised its collective target by over 2.7 million bpd, equivalent to around 2.5 percent of global demand, as the alliance seeks to reclaim market share from non-OPEC producers without triggering a sharp price decline. According to Oilprice, leading up to the meeting suggested friction between Russia and Saudi Arabia, with Moscow said to favour a modest hike due to sanctions-related constraints and fears of weakening prices, while Riyadh pushed for a bolder increase. OPEC attributed its measured decision to a “steady global economic outlook and healthy market fundamentals,” citing low global oil inventories as evidence of balance. The alliance will reconvene on November 2 to reassess production levels and may revise its strategy depending on demand trends and inventory data.
Oil prices jump after OPEC+ announces modest monthly output hike | Euronews -- Oil prices rose on Monday morning in Europe after the OPEC+ group agreed to only a modest boost in monthly production, allaying fears of a more dramatic hike. After meeting on Sunday, the alliance said that it would raise oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, the same total it announced for October. WTI crude oil rose 1.31% to $61.68 a barrel at around 8.15 CEST, while Brent jumped 1.22% to $65.32 a barrel. Prices are, however, still down on the week after news of potential increases to OPEC+’s production. In the last five days, WTI has slipped 2.79%, while Brent is down 3.90%. Oil prices traded near a four-month low on Friday. The movements come after a surge in oil prices earlier this year, when barrels were trading at over $80, linked to tensions between Iran, Israel, and the US. The conflict raised concerns that Iran could block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil shipping routes. OPEC+ has been steadily raising output this year after announcing cuts in 2023 and 2024 that were originally due to be phased out by September 2026. In a statement on Sunday, the OPEC+ group noted that the decision to boost production was made “in view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories”. Even so, a number of analysts — including from the International Energy Agency — remain concerned that supplies are set to surpass demand, partly due to strong output from the Americas. OPEC+ is composed of 12 member countries plus 10 non-members, with key players including Saudi Arabia and Russia. The next meeting is scheduled for 2 November.
Oil Prices Rise on Smaller Than Expected OPEC+ Output Hike -- Oil prices edged higher in a choppy morning session Monday, Oct. 6, after OPEC+ agreed to a smaller-than-expected production quota increase for November. Emerging signs of a growing oil glut kept gains in check. NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery rose $0.60 to $61.48 bbl, and ICE Brent for December delivery gained $0.66 to $65.19 bbl. Among oil products, November RBOB gasoline futures gained $0.0189 to $1.8794 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures inched up $0.0078 to $2.2441 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.585 points to 98.000 against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil futures plunged around 8% last week on rumors that OPEC+ was considering picking up the pace of production hikes. The 137,000-bpd monthly increase agreed upon at a meeting Sunday, Oct. 5, was identical to the hike for October, lending support to oil futures given these volumes representing the lower bound of the already priced in hike. The prospect of additional barrels hitting a market already looking to be oversupplied, however small the increase may be, did little to alleviate concerns about an increasingly lop-sided supply-demand balance. Bloomberg on Monday reported that volumes of oil at sea in transit jumped to a nine-year high 1.2 billion bbl last month, citing tanker tracker data from Vortexa. Including oil in floating storage, total volumes on water were still the highest since 2020, when a pandemic induced demand plunge led to rapidly swelling storage on- and off-shore. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's newest short-term energy outlook is scheduled for Tuesday release. In last month's edition, EIA raised the forecasted OECD inventory growth rate to 6% in 2025-2026 and adjusted the 2024-2025 growth rate from 5% to 6.1%, expecting global inventory builds to average more than 2 million bpd from the third quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026. The estimate, however, did not take into account OPEC+'s 137,000 bpd output hike plan for October.
Oil rises after OPEC+ hikes output less than expected (Reuters) - Oil prices gained about 1% on Monday after the OPEC+ production increase planned for November was more modest than expected, tempering some concerns about supply additions, though a soft outlook for demand is likely to cap near-term gains. Brent crude futures settled 94 cents, or 1.46%, higher at $65.47 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.69, up 81 cents, or 1.33%. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. "The market feel that the actual amount of oil that is going to hit the market is far less than what they announced, given that some of the OPEC+ members are already producing at capacity," On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and some smaller producers, said it would raise production from November by 137,000 barrels per day, matching October's figure, amid persistent concern over a looming supply glut. In the run-up to the meeting, sources said although Russia was advocating for an increase of 137,000 bpd to avoid pressuring prices, Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even four times that to quickly regain market share. The modest production update also comes at a time of rising Venezuelan exports, the resumption of Kurdish oil flows via Turkey, and the presence of unsold Middle Eastern barrels for November loading. Saudi Arabia kept unchanged the official selling price for the Arab Light crude it sells to Asia. While refining sources in Asia surveyed by Reuters had expected a slight increase, those expectations diminished as concerns about rising Middle Eastern crude supply felled the premium to a 22-month low last week. In the near term, some analysts expect the refinery maintenance season starting soon in the Middle East will help to cap prices. The Kirishi oil refinery, one of Russia's largest, halted its most productive crude unit following a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with its recovery expected to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday. Expectations of weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter are another factor limiting the market's upside. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected in the week ended September 26 as refining activity and demand softened, the Energy Information Administration said last week. before a series of deals with Europe and the U.S. eased the supply crunch. "If we see a steadier rise in production then the downside in oil prices may be contained. Much now depends on whether the U.S. economy can reaccelerate over the rest of 2025 and into 2026, which would help demand immensely," .
Oil Edges Lower as Traders Parse Oversupply Signals – (DTN) -- Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday, Oct. 7, giving up some gains made in the previous session. The pullback followed OPEC+'s smaller-than-expected output hike for November and reports of damages to Russian oil infrastructure amid continued Ukrainian attacks. In morning trade, NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery slid $0.27 to $61.42 bbl, and ICE Brent for December delivery fell $0.26 to $65.21 bbl. November RBOB gasoline futures retreated $0.0155 to $1.8861 gallon. ULSD futures bucked the trend, rising $0.0116 to $2.2559 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.398 points to 98.270 against a basket of foreign currencies. On Monday, Oct. 6, Saudi Aramco issued official selling prices for November, leaving prices for light barrels to Asia unchanged and cutting prices for medium and heavy crude oil grades. This came the day following OPEC+ raising production quotas for November by a modest 137,000 bpd, against expectations of a larger increase, and was read as yet another sign that OPEC's demand growth expectations were at odds with their publicly communicated bullish forecasts. Russia, meanwhile, is facing a growing fuel shortage after Ukrainian strikes target key oil infrastructure, including refinery units, storage tanks and pumping stations. After an attack over the weekend, one of Russia's largest refineries, located in Kirishi, halted operations on a 160,000-bpd crude distillation unit. Ukrainian strikes have damaged a significant portion of oil infrastructure for Russia to institute a partial diesel export ban last week. Additionally, Russian midstream companies warned buyers last month to expect less deliveries. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is set to publish its newest short-term energy outlook today. In last month's report, EIA forecasted global inventory builds to average more than 2 million bpd from the third quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026. Following OPEC+ continuing to raise production quotas past the originally aimed-for 2.2 million bpd, achieved in September, market observers will be on the lookout for adjustments to supply growth estimates and inventory forecasts. The International Energy Agency's as well as OPEC's oil market reports for October are scheduled for release next week. Separately, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced this morning that its monthly report on U.S. international trade in goods and services for August will not be published today as the federal government shutdown entered its seventh day.
Traders Weigh the Smaller Than Expected OPEC+ Output Increase - The crude market remained in its sideways trading range on Tuesday, as it continued to trade within last Thursday’s trading range for the third consecutive session. The market ended lower as traders weighed the smaller than expected OPEC+ output increase in November against a possible oversupply. JP Morgan said that global oil inventories increased every week in September, adding 123 million barrels during the month. Meanwhile, China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid pace as part of its campaign to increase stocks. The crude market traded to a high of $62.04 in overnight trading before it sold off sharply to a low of $60.72 by mid-morning. However, the market quickly bounced off its low and traded in a 60 cent trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract settled up 4 cents at $61.73 and the December Brent contract settled down 2 cents at $65.45. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling up 2.1 cents at $2.2653 and the RB market settling down 77 points at $1.8939. The Energy Information Administration said U.S. oil production is expected to reach a larger record this year than previously expected, even as the agency warned that an oversupply of oil will weigh on prices in the months ahead. It expects U.S. oil production to average 13.53 million bpd this year, up from its prior forecast of 13.44 million bpd. Oil output averaged 13.23 bpd last year, which was the prior record. The anticipated increase in U.S. output defies growing concerns that the oil market is oversupplied, with the EIA noting that it expects crude oil inventories to increase throughout next year and put significant downward pressure on prices in the months ahead. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude prices are expected to average around $65/barrel this year, a 15% decline from last year. Brent crude oil prices are expected to average around $68.64/barrel, down nearly 15% from last year.U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism on Tuesday about progress toward a Gaza deal and said a U.S. team just left to take part in the negotiations.Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Alexander Novak, said that OPEC+ did not discuss increasing quotas after November. He also stated that OPEC+ countries did not discuss increasing quotas more than 137,000 bpd in November.Chevron said Monday it continues producing fuel at its El Segundo refinery despite a fire shutting its main jet producing unit at the refinery back on October 2nd. Chevron said it was working to restart some of the processing units that were shut down due to a fire.The EIA reported that the U.S. is well stocked with propane heading into the winter. It said that for the week ending September 26th, U.S. propane inventory was 103 million barrels, about 13 million barrels more than the previous five-year average for this time of year. The EIA said this year, weekly inventories have consistently remained above the five-year average since late May, adding that the Gulf Coast, where most U.S. petrochemical consumption and propane export capacity are located, accounts for about 70% of U.S. propane storage capacity.
Oil prices to decline as global oversupply builds through 2026: US EIA | S&P Global --Oil prices are set to decline as global supply growth outpaces demand, with Brent crude forecast to fall from an average of $69/b in 2025 to an average of $52/b in 2026, the US Energy Information Administration said Oct. 7. Global oil stocks are expected to build by an average 2.6 million b/d in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remain elevated throughout 2026, putting downward pressure on prices, the EIA said in its October Short-Term Energy Outlook. Global liquid fuels consumption growth of 1.1 million b/d annually, driven primarily by non-OECD countries in Asia, will not be sufficient to absorb the supply growth, the EIA said. China's strategic inventory builds have provided some price support this year, but uncertainty remains over whether Beijing will maintain this pace, according to the outlook. The negotiations related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could also affect supply, and further sanctions could be put on buyers of Russia's oil, the EIA said in its outlook. "Geopolitical developments, including Ukraine's attacks on Russia's oil ports, have raised market concerns that oil production or exports could be disrupted," the EIA said. The EIA said in a statement that it expects oil production growth to be led by countries outside of OPEC+. Production in South America has been the leading source of growth as new offshore vessels have started up ahead of schedule in Brazil and Guyana this year, the outlook said. OPEC+ crude production is forecast to increase by 500,000 b/d in 2025 and 600,000 b/d in 2026, the EIA said. "Although OPEC+ has announced a significant rebound in its oil production targets, EIA expects OPEC+ production will remain below announced targets, preventing inventory builds from accelerating too quickly and limiting the decrease in oil prices," the statement said. The EIA completed its modeling for the outlook before OPEC+ announced Oct. 5 that it would increase production targets for November 2025. US crude production hit a record high of 13.6 million b/d in July, and it is expected to hold nearly steady in the coming year, the agency said. "EIA continues to expect crude oil production will decline from its recent peak as oil prices fall, but it revised its forecasts upward for average 2025 and 2026 US crude oil production to 13.5 million b/d in both years," the EIA said in the statement. US retail gasoline prices are forecast to drop from $3.10/gal in 2025 to $2.90/gal in 2026, the EIA said. However, planned closures at Phillips 66's Wilmington and Valero's Benicia facilities will limit refinery capacity, the outlook said. An Oct. 2 fire at Chevron's El Segundo refinery, which accounts for 17% of California's refinery capacity, was announced after the October STEO forecast was completed and adds uncertainty to the forecast, the EIA statement said. Low product inventories are expected to support strong refinery margins that incentivize the remaining refineries to run at higher rates, the EIA said. "As a result, we forecast refinery utilization will average 91.4% in 2026, up from 91.1% in 2025 and the highest annual average utilization since 2022." While the EIA forecasts US crude production to be relatively steady in the coming year, US oil and gas producers have expressed pessimism about maintaining production levels. In particular, respondents to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' latest quarterly energy survey raised concerns about trade uncertainty and downward price pressures. "The uncertainty from the administration's policies has put a damper on all investment in the oil patch," one survey respondent said. "Those who can are running for the exits."
Oil settles flat on Opec+ output hike, supply glut fears - Oil prices steadied on Tuesday as investors weighed a smaller-than-expected increase to Opec+ output in November against signs of a potential supply glut. Brent crude futures settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, to US$65.45 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was up 4 cents, or 0.06%, to US$61.73. Both contracts settled more than 1% up in the previous session after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and some smaller producers, together known as Opec+, decided to increase collective oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, starting in November. The move was in contrast to market expectations for a more aggressive increase, a sign that the group remains cautious in light of predictions for a global supply surplus in the fourth quarter as well as next year, said ING analysts. Market sentiment remains subdued, in particular after Saudi Arabia opted to keep the official selling price of its flagship crude to Asia unchanged, defying analyst expectations for an increase, StoneX analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Tuesday. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has set the November official selling price of its benchmark Murban crude at US$70.22 a barrel, it said on Tuesday, up from October's OSP of $70.10. On the demand side, India's fuel demand rose 7% year-on-year in September, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of the country's Oil Ministry. On the supply side, US oil production is expected to hit a larger record of 13.53 million bpd this year, up from a prior forecast of 13.44 million bpd, the Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday. Global oil inventories are also expected to rise through next year as non-Opec+ countries lead oil output growth, according to the EIA, putting significant downward pressure on commodity prices in the months ahead. JPMorgan said global oil inventories, including crude stored on water, have risen every week in September, adding 123 million barrels during the month. In the US, crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels in the week ended October 3, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.25 million barrels, while distillate inventories dropped by 1.82 million barrels, the sources said. China is building oil reserve sites at a rapid clip as part of a campaign to boost stockpiles, according to public data, traders and industry experts. Geopolitical factors have kept a floor under prices, with conflict between Russia and Ukraine affecting energy assets and creating uncertainty over Russian crude supply. Russia's Kirishi oil refinery halted its most productive distillation unit after a drone attack and subsequent fire on October 4, with recovery likely to take about a month, two industry sources said on Monday.
Oil rises on OPEC+ production decision and efforts to curb Russian crude flows -Oil prices climbed Wednesday as OPEC+ upheld a cautious production stance, efforts to curb Russian crude flows and expectations of potential US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts also lent support, while US data signaling weaker demand capped further gains. Brent crude was trading at $65.88 per barrel at 10.06 a.m. local time (0706 GMT), up 0.5% from the previous close of $65.55. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) increased by 0.5% to $62.03 from $61.74 in the prior session. Prices continued to gain support from the cautious production policy adopted by members of the OPEC+ group during their Oct. 5 online meeting. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman confirmed plans to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, in line with expectations. The decision was seen as a measured step to maintain market stability while gradually reclaiming market share. It also helped ease lingering oversupply concerns, lending additional support to prices. Analysts said ongoing efforts to curb Russian oil flows prompted some investors to take positions on expectations of higher prices, further underpinning the market. Meanwhile, signs of weakness in the US labor market reinforced dovish expectations for the Fed, helping to sustain risk appetite in global markets. Analysts said last week's private-sector employment figures strengthened the case for potential rate cuts, but noted that the lack of upcoming inflation data could add uncertainty to the Fed's policy trajectory. Lower rates are expected to boost growth and lift demand in oil-reliant sectors, supporting prices, analysts said. However, on the demand side, data pointing to rising US crude inventories signaled a potential slowdown. The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that US commercial crude stocks rose by 2.78 million barrels last week compared to the previous week, indicating weak demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
WTI Holds Gains After US Crude Production Hits Record High - Oil prices are higher this morning as investors brushed off oversupply fears, having digested a decision earlier by OPEC+ to restrain production increases next month. “The disconnect continues between paper pricing and the predicted glut in global balances,” said Keshav Lohiya, founder of consultant Oilytics.“We are back to an oil trading world where flat price is firmly in the $65 to $70 world.”Additionally, prices shrugged off the crude build reported by API overnight. API
- Crude +2.8mm
- Cushing -1.2mm
- Gasoline -1.2mm
- Distillates -1.8mm
DOE
- Crude +3.715mm
- Cushing -763k
- Gasoline -1.6mm
- Distillates -2.018mm - biggest draw since June
The official data confirmed API's sizable crude build (second week in a row) but products and stocks at Cushing saw inventory drawdowns... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. With the addition of 285k barrels to the SPR, total crude stocks rose by the most in a month. US crude production rose once again, back to record highs, despite the trend lower in rig counts... WTI prices held gains after the official data.Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its bearish outlook on oil, saying the global market faces an average daily surplus of about 2 million barrels from this quarter through next year. That will drag prices lower, with Brent expected to average $56 a barrel in 2026, analysts including Yulia Grigsby said in a note."The market is in price limbo, with one side bent towards a possible supply glut and the other believing the ramp-up will not be as fast as anticipated," Price gains are however capped as fears of Russian supply disruption eased, with crude oil shipments holding close to a 16-month high over the past four weeks, the ANZ analysts said.
Oil prices rise on worries about Russian output, higher US oil demand -- Oil prices rose more than 1% to a one-week high on Wednesday as traders expected a lack of progress on a Ukraine peace deal to keep sanctions in place against Moscow and a weekly report showed an increase in U.S. oil consumption. Brent crude futures rose 80 cents, or 1.22%, to close at $66.25 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 82 cents, or 1.33%, to settle at $62.55. In Russia, a top Russian diplomat said the impetus to reach a peace deal with Ukraine, which emerged after a summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump in August, had proven to be largely exhausted. Analysts have said a peace deal would likely allow more Russian oil to flow to global markets. Russia was the second-biggest crude producer in the world after the U.S. in 2024, according to U.S. energy data. Despite sanctions, Russia has been gradually raising its oil production and was close last month to meeting its OPEC+ output quota, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia. Moscow’s energy sector has been under serious strain in the past two months due to a wave of Ukrainian drone attacks on its oil and gas infrastructure, mainly targeting oil refineries. Another factor supporting crude futures was investor belief that the U.S. Federal Reserve would keep cutting interest rates amid a prolonged U.S. government shutdown. Investors have been without most U.S. economic data as the federal government remains shut. But, the Fed will release minutes from its September meeting at 2 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, which will be scoured for any new clues on Fed policy. The central bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points at its October 28-29 meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Central banks, like the Fed, use interest rates to control inflation. Lower rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. Oil markets held gains as traders focused more on a U.S. report showing an increase in oil consumption last week than the bigger-than-expected increase in crude inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 3.7 million barrels of crude into inventories during the week ended October 3. , That was more than the 1.9-million-barrel build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and the 2.8-million-barrel build market sources said the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group cited in its figures on Tuesday. EIA, however, did say that total weekly petroleum products supplied, a proxy for U.S. oil consumption, rose last week to 21.990 million barrels per day, the most since December 2022. “The demand numbers are pretty strong and that should keep the market supported,” said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Price Futures Group. Oil markets were up about 3% so far this week after OPEC+ on Sunday announced a smaller-than-expected output increase for November. “The bare minimum that OPEC+ decided to get away with on Sunday still provided some support,” PVM oil analyst Tamas Varga said in a note on Wednesday. OPEC+ agreed to raise its output targets for November by 137,000 barrels per day on growing concerns about a looming glut in the oil market, sources from the group told .
Oil prices fall on Gaza cease-fire deal despite new US sanctions on Iran -- Oil prices fell Friday after Israel and Hamas reached the first phase of a US-brokered cease-fire in Gaza, easing geopolitical tensions that had supported prices in recent months, despite new sanctions by Washington targeting Iran's oil network. Brent crude was trading at $64.66 per barrel at 09.42 a.m. local time (0642 GMT), down 0.5% from the previous close of $64.99. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by 0.5% to $60.82 from $61.16 in the prior session. The cease-fire, confirmed late Thursday, includes Israeli troop withdrawals, the reopening of the Rafah border crossing, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas said that it has received guarantees from the mediators and the US that the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip has "fully ended." In a pre-recorded speech, Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya announced a ceasefire agreement with Israel. "We have received guarantees from our brothers the mediators and the US administration, all confirming that the war has ended completely," al-Hayya said. Analysts said the truce reduced fears of supply disruptions. "This presents a major step toward ending the two-year war that raised the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said in a note. "This saw the focus move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts," Hynes added. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, tempered recent price gains by confirming a planned production increase for November. Eight member countries agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, easing supply concerns and adding downward pressure on prices. The group's next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2. Losses were capped, however, after the US imposed sanctions on more than 90 individuals, entities and vessels accused of facilitating Iran's petroleum and petrochemical exports through the UAE, India, China, Hong Kong and Singapore. The Treasury Department announced that it has designated more than 50 individuals involved in facilitating billions of dollars' worth of Iranian oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports. Targets included networks based in the five Asian hubs, nearly two dozen "shadow fleet" vessels, a China-based crude oil terminal, and an independent refinery, "key to Iran's ability to export petroleum and petroleum products." The State Department separately sanctioned approximately 40 additional individuals, entities, and vessels linked to Iran’s energy trade, including top buyers of Iranian petrochemicals and operators of a shadow fleet of tankers.
The Crude Market Reacts to the Israel and Hamas Ceasefire Agreement - The crude market ended the session lower after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement. The market was pressured in overnight trading following the announcement that Israel and Hamas agreed to the ceasefire deal on Wednesday, under which Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free hostages it captures in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for prisoners held by Israel. The deal could ease tensions in the Middle East, with the possibility of a decrease in Houthis’ attacks in the Red Sea and increase the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran. The oil market retraced more than 38% of its move from a low of $60.40 to a high of $62.92 as it traded to $61.78. However, the market bounced off that level and retraced all of its overnight losses and posted a high of $62.87. The market later once again traded lower and extended its losses to $1.16 as it posted a low of $61.39 in afternoon trading after Israel and Hamas signed the ceasefire agreement. The crude market retraced nearly 62% of its recent rally previously mentioned and settled in a sideways trading range ahead of the close. The November WTI contract ended the session down $1.04 at $61.51 and sold off further to a low of $61.25 in the post settlement period. The December Brent contract ended the session down $1.03 at $65.22. The product markets ended the session in negative territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.1 cents at $2.2803 and the RB market settling down 2.69 cents at $1.8826. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement on Thursday to cease fire and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza. Officials on both sides confirmed they had signed the deal following indirect talks in Egypt. Under the deal, the biggest step yet towards peace, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for prisoners held by Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the ceasefire would take effect once the agreement is ratified by his government, which would convene after a security cabinet meeting on Thursday. An Israeli government spokeswoman, confirming the deal had been signed, said the ceasefire would go into force within 24 hours of the cabinet meeting. After that 24-hour period, the hostages held in Gaza will be freed within 72 hours. An Israeli official said all 20 Israeli hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza after being seized by Hamas in its attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, would be released. Egyptian state-affiliated TV al-Qahera news reported the agreement on the first stage of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan for ending the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza went into effect on Thursday morning. The next phase of President Trump’s plan calls for an international body led by Trump and including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair to play a role in Gaza’s post-war administration. Arab countries which back the plan say it must lead to eventual independence for a Palestinian state, which Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated will never happen. President Donald Trump said that the Gaza hostages should be released on Monday or Tuesday and that he hopes to attend a signing ceremony in Egypt. He said he believed it will lead to “lasting peace.” On Thursday, President Trump also said his administration would work with Iran and would like to see them be able to rebuild their country, adding that Tehran acknowledged that they are in favor of the Israel, Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal.
Oil settles 1.6% lower after Gaza ceasefire -- Oil prices settled lower on Thursday after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement to cease fire in Gaza. Brent crude futures closed down US$1.03, or 1.6%, at US$65.22 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down US$1.04, or 1.7%, at US$61.51. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement on Thursday to cease fire and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, in the first phase of US President Donald Trump's initiative to end the war in Gaza. Under the ceasefire deal, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. "Crude futures are in a corrective phase as the Israel/Hamas conflict looks to be ending," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. "The peace agreement is a major breakthrough in recent Middle Eastern history – its implications for oil markets could be wide-ranging, from the possibility of a decrease in the Houthis' attacks in the Red Sea to an increase in the likelihood of a nuclear deal with Iran..." Rystad Energy's chief economist Claudio Galimberti said in a note. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies in Opec+ agreed on Sunday to a November output hike that was smaller than market expectations, easing oversupply concerns. Prices had gained around 1% on Wednesday to reach a one-week high after investors viewed stalled progress on a Ukraine peace deal as a sign that sanctions against Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, would continue for some time. Democratic and Republican bills to fund the US government and end a shutdown have not secured the votes needed for passage in the Senate. A prolonged shutdown could dampen the economy and hurt oil demand. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he spoke to US President Donald Trump on Thursday, adding they "reviewed good progress achieved in trade negotiations" and agreed to stay in close touch over the coming weeks. Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on most exports from India, among the highest for any US trading partner. The tariffs were doubled on Indian goods from 25% over New Delhi's continued imports of Russian oil. The US also imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and terminal, that helped Iran's oil and petrochemicals trade, the administration of President Donald Trump said on Thursday.
WTI Falls to $61 on Israel-Hamas Deal; USGC Supply Build (DTN) -- Oil futures tumbled almost 2% Thursday, Oct. 9, reversing gains from last week. The decline came after Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire and hostage return deal, easing some of the geopolitical risk that had provided support to crude markets. The bearish sentiment was also fueled by data showing crude inventories ballooning on the U.S. Gulf Coast last week. This potentially creates a regional supply glut, even as refiners aggressively process crude at high run rates. NYMEX-traded WTI crude for November delivery settled down $1.04, or 1.7%, to $61.51 bbl. Just a day ago, WTI hit a one-week at $62.92, rebounding from last week's four-month low of $60.40 pressured by worries of oversupply. ICE Brent for December delivery slumped $1.08 to $65.17 bbl. On Wednesday, Oct. 8, Brent scaled a one-week peak of $65.54, rebounding from the four-month trough of $64 seen a week ago. The drop in oil futures weighed across the NYMEX petroleum complex. November RBOB gasoline futures fell by $0.0300 to $1.8795 gallon, and front-month ULSD futures lost $0.0145 to trade at $2.2768 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index jumped 0.540 points to 99.18, reaching its highest since late July against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil prices began Thursday steadily as the market initially took the developments in Gaza in its stride. But as the day progressed, heavy selling set in. Weekly inventory data from the Energy Information Administration, meanwhile, showed U.S. commercial crude stocks rising by 3.7 million barrels to 420.3 million bbl during the week ended Oct. 3. Crucially, the surge was heavily concentrated in the U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3), where stocks have jumped more than 10 million bbl in just two weeks, including a 6.2 million bbl jump last week alone. The rapid build is highly unusual as Gulf Coast inventories typically draw down over the summer months and into fall as refiners try to meet fuel demand.
After the Gaza agreement, oil prices have fallen slightly as the risk premium has diminished. The oil prices fell slightly on Friday, after falling 1.6% in the previous session. This was due to the fact that the risk premium in the market had decreased after Israel and Hamas reached an agreement to implement the first phase of the plan to end Gaza's war. Brent crude futures fell 7 cents to $65.15 per barrel at 0338 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude fell 2 cents, to $61.49. Israel and Hamas, a militant Palestinian group, signed a ceasefire on Thursday as part of the first phase in President Donald Trump's initiative for ending the Gaza war. The deal was ratified by Israel's government on Friday. It will see the end of the fighting, Israel withdrawing from Gaza in part, and Hamas releasing all hostages that it has captured since the initial attack which sparked the war in exchange for hundreds Israeli prisoners. Both benchmarks rose around 1% on a weekly scale after a steep drop last week. The stalled progress in a Ukraine deal is a sign of possible sanctions against Russia. Russia is the second largest oil exporter in the world. Daniel Hynes said that the Gaza ceasefire agreement was a significant step in ending the war of two years, which has increased the risk of oil disruptions. Hynes stated that "this (deal) saw the emphasis move back to an impending oil surplus as OPEC continues with the unwinding production cuts." A smaller-than-expected November hike in output agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday eased some of those oversupply concerns. BMI analysts wrote in a Friday note that "markets' expectations of a sharp increase in crude supply did not manifest themselves in significantly lower prices." The latest rise in production was lower than initially feared, contributing to a small rise in the prices for the entire week," they stated. Investors worry that a prolonged U.S. shutdown will dampen the American economic climate and affect oil demand. The United States is the largest crude consumer in the world.
Oil Prices Fall to Multi-Month Lows as Gaza Ceasefire Ease Geopolitical Risks -- Global oil prices fell sharply on Friday, reaching their lowest levels in several months, as geopolitical risk premiums unwound following a breakthrough ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas aimed at ending the prolonged conflict in Gaza. Brent crude futures dropped $1.73, or 2.7%, to settle at $63.49 per barrel, having earlier touched an intraday low of $63.27, the weakest level since early June. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell $1.71, or 2.8%, to $59.80, after dipping as low as $59.57, its lowest price since May. The losses cap a volatile week for energy markets, which had briefly rallied midweek amid fears of prolonged conflict in Ukraine but reversed course as diplomatic progress in the Middle East calmed supply disruption fears. “The possibility of a durable peace process in the Middle East has significantly eased market concerns,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Commodities Analyst at SEB Bank. “Fears over disruptions to oil tanker traffic through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea have lessened, restoring a degree of investor confidence.” The ceasefire agreement, the first phase of a U.S.-backed peace initiative, was signed Thursday by Israel and Hamas, with formal approval from the Israeli government coming early Friday. The deal mandates a temporary halt to fighting, a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the release of all remaining hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Alongside easing geopolitical tensions, oil markets are increasingly responding to signals of a potential supply glut. Analysts expect crude supplies to exceed demand in Q4, particularly as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) begin to gradually ease production cuts. “The focus is now shifting back to fundamentals,” said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodities Strategist at ANZ. “A ceasefire in Gaza has removed a key upside risk, and with OPEC+ agreeing to a modest production increase in November, supply concerns are re-emerging.” A research note from BMI analysts reinforced that sentiment, saying: “While expectations of a dramatic supply surge haven’t materialized, the latest decline reflects a blend of political easing and economic uncertainty.” Brent and WTI are both down around 1.7% and 1.9% respectively for the week. Further weighing on crude is anxiety over a potential U.S. government shutdown, which could dent economic momentum and reduce demand from the world’s largest oil consumer. Investors remain wary of the macroeconomic headwinds facing global energy markets. “Short-term demand indicators are flashing warning signs,” Hynes added. “If the U.S. budget crisis drags on, oil could face additional downward pressure heading into the winter months.” Despite the recent pullback, energy markets remain on edge amid a confluence of geopolitical and economic uncertainties, from fragile ceasefires to fragile economies.
Oil prices fall on Gaza cease-fire deal despite new US sanctions on Iran --Oil prices fell Friday after Israel and Hamas reached the first phase of a US-brokered cease-fire in Gaza, easing geopolitical tensions that had supported prices in recent months, despite new sanctions by Washington targeting Iran's oil network. Brent crude was trading at $64.66 per barrel at 09.42 a.m. local time (0642 GMT), down 0.5% from the previous close of $64.99. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by 0.5% to $60.82 from $61.16 in the prior session. The cease-fire, confirmed late Thursday, includes Israeli troop withdrawals, the reopening of the Rafah border crossing, the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, and the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Hamas said that it has received guarantees from the mediators and the US that the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip has "fully ended." In a pre-recorded speech, Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya announced a ceasefire agreement with Israel. "We have received guarantees from our brothers the mediators and the US administration, all confirming that the war has ended completely," al-Hayya said. Analysts said the truce reduced fears of supply disruptions. "This presents a major step toward ending the two-year war that raised the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group, said in a note. "This saw the focus move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts," Hynes added. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, known as OPEC+, tempered recent price gains by confirming a planned production increase for November. Eight member countries agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day, easing supply concerns and adding downward pressure on prices. The group's next meeting is scheduled for Nov. 2. Losses were capped, however, after the US imposed sanctions on more than 90 individuals, entities and vessels accused of facilitating Iran's petroleum and petrochemical exports through the UAE, India, China, Hong Kong and Singapore. The Treasury Department announced that it has designated more than 50 individuals involved in facilitating billions of dollars' worth of Iranian oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports. Targets included networks based in the five Asian hubs, nearly two dozen "shadow fleet" vessels, a China-based crude oil terminal, and an independent refinery, "key to Iran's ability to export petroleum and petroleum products." The State Department separately sanctioned approximately 40 additional individuals, entities, and vessels linked to Iran’s energy trade, including top buyers of Iranian petrochemicals and operators of a shadow fleet of tankers.
Trump tariff threat pushes oil to five-month low (Reuters) -Brent and U.S. crude futures fell more than $2 a barrel, or more than 3%, on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to impose increased tariffs on China cast a shadow over the demand outlook in a market seen as oversupplied. "The sell-off was driven by a shift to risk-off markets following Trump’s post threatening tariffs on Chinese goods," said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst with UBS. Brent crude futures settled at $62.73 a barrel, down $2.49, or 3.82%, the lowest since May 5. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $58.90 a barrel down $2.61, or 4.24%, the lowest since early May. "Today is the culmination of a variety of factors of which Trump’s threat of a massive increase in tariffs on China is just the latest," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Production increases from OPEC, additional output gains in North and South America, and the loss of geopolitical risk after the Gaza ceasefire agreement "are all factors that can be layered on top of Trump’s announcement this morning of tariffs on China," Lipow said. Trump, who was due to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in about three weeks in South Korea, complained on social media about what he characterized as China’s plans to hold the global economy hostage, after China dramatically expanded its export controls on rare earth elements on Thursday. China dominates the market for such elements, which are essential to tech manufacturing. In addition to threatening to cancel the meeting with Xi, Trump said he may impose a massive increase in tariffs on Chinese goods. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement on Thursday in the first phase of Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza. Under the deal, which Israel’s government ratified on Friday, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. Numerous vessels have been attacked by the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen since 2023, targeting ships they deem linked to Israel in what they described as solidarity with Palestinians over the war in Gaza. The Gaza ceasefire deal means the focus can move back to the impending oil surplus, as OPEC proceeds with the unwinding of production cuts, A smaller-than-expected November hike in output agreed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) on Sunday eased some of those oversupply concerns. "Markets’ expectations for a sharp ramp-up in crude supply have not manifested themselves in substantially lower prices," BMI analysts said in a note on Friday. Investors are also worried that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could dampen the American economy and hurt oil demand in the world’s largest crude consumer.
Report: Netanyahu Ordered Drone Attack on Gaza Aid Flotilla Boats in Tunisia - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly ordered attacks on the Global Sumud Flotilla that were carried out in early September while the boats were moored in Tunisia, CBS News reported on Friday. A total of two boats were hit in two attacks that were conducted on September 8 and September 9. Two US intelligence officials told CBS News that Israel forces fired drones from a submarine that dropped incendiary devices and caused fires. The report noted that under international law, the use of incendiary devices against civilian populations or civilian targets is prohibited. The attacks targeted the Family, a Portuguese-flagged vessel, and the Alma, a British-flagged vessel. In both cases, the crews were able to extinguish the fire, and the attacks caused no casualties. Footage of the Israeli attack on the Alma on September 9, 2025 (via social media)In a September 22 interview, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack acknowledged that Israel was behind the operation by saying Israel had attacked Tunisia. “So Israel is attacking Syria. Israel is attacking Lebanon. Israel is attacking Tunisia,” Barrack told The National.In a statement to CBS, the Global Sumud Flotilla said, “Confirmation of Israeli involvement would not surprise us; it would simply lay bare a pattern of arrogance and impunity so grotesque that it cannot escape eventual reckoning.”The group added, “Whether the purpose of these attacks was to kill us, scare us away, or disable our boats, they recklessly endangered civilians and humanitarian volunteers. The world must take note: attempts to silence, intimidate, or obstruct our commitment to the Palestinian cause and people will not succeed. We call for urgent, independent investigations into these attacks and full accountability for those responsible.”Despite the attack in Tunisia, the flotilla continued on its mission to attempt to bring food to starving Palestinians living under the Israeli blockade in Gaza. The boats came under attack from multiple drones while sailing in the Mediterranean Sea south of Greece, and they were all eventually captured by Israeli forces while in international waters and approaching Gaza.Hundreds of activists, including at least 24 US citizens, were thrown into prison when the IDF brought them to Israel. Some have since been deported and are alleging they were severely mistreated by Israeli forces.
Israel deports Greta Thunberg and other Gaza flotilla activists -- Swedish activist Greta Thunberg has arrived in Greece along with 160 other campaigners from the Global Sumud Flotilla, having been deported by Israel. Israel’s Foreign Ministry announced on X on Monday that it had expelled a total of 171 activists from the flotilla’s ships, which were intercepted last week while trying to bring aid to blockaded Gaza. This brings the total deported so far up to 341. The Greek Foreign Ministry confirmed that 161 of the expelled activists — including 27 Greeks and 134 nationals from 15 other countries — arrived on a flight to Athens on Monday, according to news agency AFP. “Let me be very clear. There is a genocide going on,” Thunberg told the crowd at the Athens airport, referring to Israeli military action in Gaza. “Our international systems are betraying Palestinians. They are not even able to prevent the worst war crimes from happening,” she said, in comments carried by AFP. “What we aimed to do with the Global Sumud Flotilla was to step up when our governments failed to do their legal obligation,” she added. The 22-year-old was allegedly abused by Israeli forces while in detention. Turkish journalist and Sumud Flotilla participant Ersin Celik earlier told local media how Thunberg was “dragged on the ground” and “forced to kiss the Israeli flag”. Slovakia’s Foreign Ministry, meanwhile, confirmed that 10 of the deportees had arrived there, including one of its nationals and nine other people from the Netherlands, Canada and the United States. The Council was told of positive achievements like more than Among those arriving in Athens, Rima Hassan, a French-Palestinian member of the European Parliament, reported having been hit by Israeli police after the flotilla was intercepted. “I was beaten by two police officers when they put me in the van,” she told AFP. Hassan said she and other detainees were kept in groups of up to 15 per cell on mattresses in a high-security Israeli prison. The flotilla departed from Barcelona in Spain in early September and was intercepted by the Israeli navy in international waters approaching Gaza. Israeli police said more than 470 people aboard the flotilla boats were arrested. The Foreign Ministry told AFP that 138 flotilla participants remained in detention in Israel.
Israel and Hamas begin indirect Gaza ceasefire talks in Egypt - — Israel and Hamas have started indirect talks on a plan to end the war in Gaza. An Egyptian official — speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about the talks — told The Associated Press that the talks started at the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday. Egypt's state-owned Al-Qahera News TV station reported that the talks began with a meeting between a Hamas delegation and Arab mediators, who were expected to meet later with an Israeli delegation. Negotiators were expected to discuss President Trump's 20-point plan to end the war in Gaza, which was sparked two years ago, on Oct. 7, by the Hamas-led terrorist attack on Israel. Mr. Trump presented his plan during a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House last Monday. Hamas — which is designated as a terrorist organization by the U.S., Israel and many other nations — issued a statement on Friday saying it agreed to some of the key points in the plan, including releasing all the remaining hostages, living and deceased, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. It also said it agreed to handing over control of Gaza to a transitional international body. But Hamas did not immediately agree to other points in Mr. Trump's proposal, including some related to its disarmament and future role in Palestinian politics. Mr. Trump on Sunday urged the negotiators to "move fast" in the talks, calling ongoing discussions between Hamas and other nations in the region about the ceasefire proposal "very successful." He said they were "proceeding rapidly."
Day one of Israel and Hamas indirect talks ends on ‘positive’ note in Egypt | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera - - The first day of resumed indirect talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt ended on a positive note, amid hopes of a potential deal to implement United States President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to end the war on Gaza, multiple sources told Al Jazeera and other media outlets. Negotiators are set to return for more discussions on Tuesday.Sources told Al Jazeera Arabic that the meeting in the Red Sea resort city of Sharm el-Sheikh on Monday was “positive” and that a roadmap was drawn up for how the current round of talks would continue.The Hamas delegation told mediators that Israel’s continued bombing of Gaza poses a challenge to negotiations on the release of captives, Al Jazeera Arabic reported. The Hamas delegation included Hamas leaders Khalil al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin, two negotiators who survived an Israeli assassination attempt in Qatar’s capital Doha that killed five people last month. The day-one talks covered the proposed exchange of prisoners and captives, a ceasefire, and humanitarian aid entering Gaza, according to Egypt’s state-linked Al-Qahera News. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also said Trump was pushing for an early exchange of Israeli captives and Palestinian prisoners, in a bid to build “momentum” to implement other parts of his plan to end the Gaza war.“The technical teams are discussing that as we speak, to ensure that the environment is perfect to release those hostages,” Leavitt said, adding that teams were “going over the list of both the Israeli hostages and also the political prisoners who will be released”. Trump, speaking to reporters from the Oval Office on Monday afternoon, said “we have a really good chance of making a deal”, while also noting that he still has his own “red lines”. “But I think we’re doing very well. And I think Hamas has been agreeing to things that are very important,” Trump added.
Israeli Strikes on Gaza Continue as Peace Talks Are Underway - The genocidal assault on Gaza is raging on as Hamas and Israeli officials meet in Egypt to hammer out the details of the hostage exchange and ceasefire proposed by President Donald Trump. Israel killed three Palestinians in an area deemed a “humanitarian zone” by Tel Aviv. Israeli jets pounded areas near Gaza City and Khan Younis, killing at least ten Palestinians on Tuesday, including three in the Mawasi safe zone. According to the Gaza Health Ministry, at least 67,173 Palestinians have been killed by Israel during the two-year-long onslaught. That number is considered an undercount, as tens of thousands of Palestinians are missing and are likely dead beneath the rubble. Additionally, the Israeli siege of Gaza is taking its toll on Palestinians, particularly children. UNICEF reported that Israel is blocking the transfer of incubators into the Strip. James Elder, a UNICEF spokesperson, said the medical devices were desperately needed. “In one of the paediatric rooms, there were three babies and three mums on a single bed, one source of oxygen, and the mothers would rotate the oxygen 20 minutes to each child,” he told the Reuters news agency. “This is the level of desperation mums have now got to.”
Israel and Hamas agree Gaza ceasefire — Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal that's intended to end to the devastating Gaza war which unleashed the deadliest fighting ever between Israelis and Palestinians. President Trump said on Truth Social that Israel and Hamas "have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan." "This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!" The announcement came just hours after Trump told reporters at the White House he was prepared to travel to the Middle East as early as this weekend. Israel and Hamas don't speak to each other directly, requiring indirect negotiations that were brokered by President Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner, as well as mediators from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey in Sharm-El-Sheikh, Egypt. It is not clear when the ceasefire is due to take effect. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed on social media that the cabinet would meet on Thursday, where they are expected to take vote on the ceasefire deal, "to approve the agreement and bring all our beloved hostages home". In the same social media posting, Netanyahu offered his "heartfelt thanks to President Trump and his team for their dedication to this sacred mission of freeing our hostages." The two later spoke on the phone, in a call the Israeli Prime Minister described as "a very emotional and warm conversation." In the same statement the Prime Minister said he had invited Trump to address the Knesset (Israeli parliament). It is believed the deal calls for Hamas to release nearly 50 hostages, living and dead, and for Israel to free nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees. According to a senior White House official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, "the deal goes to the Israeli cabinet tomorrow. Once they vote yes, Israel has to withdraw to the line which should take under 24 hours. Then the 72 hour clock begins, and Hamas will try to go earlier if possible. Our assessment is that hostages will begin getting released on Monday."
Israel and Hamas will exchange hostages and prisoners - Israel and Hamas have agreed to a pause in their devastating two-year war and the release of the remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners — a breakthrough greeted Thursday with joy and relief but also caution. Uncertainty remains about aspects of the broader ceasefire plan advanced by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump — such as whether and how Hamas will disarm and who will govern Gaza. But the sides appear closer than they have been in months to ending a war that has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, reduced much of Gaza to rubble, brought famine to parts of the territory and left dozens of hostages, living and dead, in Gaza. The war, which began with Hamas' deadly attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, has also triggered other conflicts in the region, sparked worldwide protests and led to allegations of genocide that Israel denies. Some 1,200 people were killed in the Hamas-led assault, and 251 were taken hostage. In Israel's ensuing offensive, more than 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza and nearly 170,000 wounded, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which doesn't differentiate between civilians and combatants but says around half of the deaths were women and children. Even with the agreement expected to be finalized later in the day, Israeli strikes continued, with explosions seen Thursday in northern Gaza. At least 11 dead Palestinians and another 49 who were wounded arrived at hospitals over the past 24 hours, Gaza's Health Ministry said. An Israeli military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity in line with military guidelines said Israel was continuing to hit targets that posed a threat to its troops as they reposition. In the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, celebrations were relatively muted and often colored by grief. "I am happy and unhappy. We have lost a lot of people and lost loved ones, friends and family. We lost our homes," said Mohammad Al-Farra. "Despite our happiness, we cannot help but think of what is to come. ... The areas we are going back to, or intending to return to, are uninhabitable." In Tel Aviv, families of the remaining hostages popped champagne and cried tears of joy after Trump announced a deal late Wednesday. In Jerusalem on Thursday, Sharon Canot celebrated with some others. "We are so excited this morning. We cried all morning," she said. "It's been two years that we are in horror." Under the terms, Hamas intends to release all living hostages in a matter of days, while the Israeli military will begin a withdrawal from the majority of Gaza, people familiar with the matter told The Associated Press. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details of an agreement that has not fully been made public. Some 20 of the 48 hostages still in captivity are believed to be alive. In a short video posted by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Trump was seen speaking by phone to a group of elated hostage families. "They are all coming back on Monday," said Trump, who is expected in the region in the coming days.
Yemen's Houthis To 'Monitor' Israel Compliance With Gaza Ceasefire Deal - Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of Yemen’s Ansar Allah, said on Thursday that Yemen will be “monitoring” Israel’s compliance with the Gaza ceasefire deal, warning Yemeni support for the Palestinians in Gaza would continue if the deal isn’t implemented. “We must be at the highest levels of caution and readiness, and continue the massive popular momentum with the Palestinian people, until we determine whether the agreement will be achieved, or whether we will continue our path of support and assistance to the Palestinian people,” al-Houthi said, according to Yemen’s SABA news agency. “We will remain vigilant, prepared, and monitor the progress of the agreement. Will it lead to an end to the aggression on the Gaza Strip and the entry of aid, food, medicine, and humanitarian needs to the Palestinian people? Will the Americans and Israelis stop their genocide against the Palestinian people and commit to a ceasefire? This is what we hope for, and it was our goal in the support operations and confronting the attack on the Palestinian people and the nation in general,” al-Houthi added. Ansar Allah, commonly known as the Houthis, has maintained that its attacks on Israel and blockade of Israeli-linked shipping in the Red Sea would end if there were a ceasefire in Gaza and an end to the Israeli blockade on aid entering the Palestinian territory. The Houthis halted their attacks back when a ceasefire deal was signed in January 2025. After Israel violated the ceasefire deal in March by imposing a total blockade on Gaza, al-Houthi announced that Yemen would restart its blockade on Israeli shipping. In response to that announcement, the US began a very heavy bombing campaign targeting Yemen, known as Operation Rough Rider, which lasted from March 15 to May 6 and killed over 250 civilians.
Israel Has Damaged or Destroyed 83% of All Buildings in Gaza City - The UN said on Wednesday that Israeli forces have damaged or destroyed 83% of all buildings in Gaza City as the IDF continues to strike the city despite the ongoing ceasefire talks in Egypt.“Today, the UN Satellite Centre published a preliminary analysis showing that the extent of damage in Gaza City alone encompasses 83% of the structures. About 81,000 housing units have been damaged,” said UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric, according to the Anadolu Agency.Since early August, the IDF has been conducting an offensive in famine-stricken Gaza City with the aim of cleansing its Palestinian population and destroying every building. Israeli forces have been razing entire neighborhoods block by block and have also conducted airstrikes to topple high-rise apartment buildings.The IDF appears to have eased up its offensive in Gaza City amid the ceasefire negotiations, but they haven’t stopped completely. Al Jazeera reported that Israeli forces bombed eastern Gaza City on Wednesday evening and said it was unclear if there were any casualties. Earlier in the day, the IDFclaimed it targeted Hamas fighters attempting to target Israeli troops occupying Gaza City.Dujarric said that “Israeli military operations have continued, including in the Rimal and Zaitoun neighborhoods in Gaza City, making the already dire humanitarian situation even more perilous.” He added that “many people are unable to leave the north due to insecurity.”
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