Justice Department to drop Powell investigation — U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro said the Department of Justice will drop its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, ending a monthslong standoff that had imperiled the confirmation of the White House's pick to replace Powell.
- Key insight: The Department of Justice will close its investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell related to his comments regarding building renovations to the Fed's Washington headquarters, a probe even many Republicans found baseless.
- Forward look: The conclusion of the probe clears the way for Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., to vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman. Tillis has said he looks forward to supporting Warsh's nomination after the DOJ investigation is dropped.
- What's at stake: Warsh has promoted shrinking the Fed's balance sheet and reducing the central bank's role in markets.
U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro said in a social media post Friday morning that the Justice Department is closing its investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, clearing a path for Kevin Warsh to be confirmed as Powell's replacement.
Justice Department ends criminal investigation of Fed chair Powell (AP) — The Justice Department has ended its investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, clearing a major roadblock to the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as his successor. U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro said on X Friday that her office was ending its probe into the Fed’s extensive building renovations because the Fed’s inspector general would scrutinize them instead.The move could lead to a swift confirmation vote by the Senate for Warsh, a former top Fed official whom President Donald Trump, a Republican, nominated in January to replace Powell. Powell’s term as chair ends May 15. Sen. Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican, had said he would oppose Warsh until the investigation was resolved, effectively blocking his confirmation. Republicans praised Warsh during a Tuesday hearing even as Democrats questioned his independence from Trump, the lack of transparency around some of his financial holdings, and what they said was his flip-flopping on interest rates. Still, Trump’s previous appointment to the Fed’s board of governors, Stephen Miran, was approved by the full Senate just 13 days after his nomination.
Warsh insists he wouldn't do Trump's bidding as Fed chair — Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, repeatedly insisted at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee that he didn't promise Trump that he would lower interest rates.
- Key insight: The fight over Federal Reserve independence has made confirming Warsh politically impossible, with one Republican senator blocking Kevin Warsh's approval by the Senate Banking Committee.
- Forward look: Should the Senate not confirm a Fed chairman, it's unclear who will helm the central bank when outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term expires in mid-May.
- What's at stake: Warsh, should he be confirmed, would balance White House demands for lower interest rates with an economy facing increasing inflationary headwinds.
Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump's pick to lead the Federal Reserve, denied that he would act as Trump's "sock puppet" if he's confirmed and said the president has directed him to lower interest rates.
Solid 20Y Auction Stops Through With Above Average Foreign Demand - The week's lone coupon auction priced at 1pm when the Treasury sold $13 BN in 20Y paper, in a solid if not stellar auction. The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.883%, up from 4.817% in March and the highest since last July. It also stopped through the 4.892% When Issued by 0.9bps, the highest since January. The bid to cover was 2.68, down from 2.76 in March but above the 2.63 six-auction average. The internals were also solid with Indirects taking 67.4% of the auction, down modestly from 69.2% last month but also above the 62.9% recent average for foreign buyers. And with Directs taking 22.9%, up modestly from 21.6% last month, Dealers were left holding just 9.7%, down from the recent average of 11.2%. Overall, this was another solid auction, which is a welcome outcome at a time when 10Y yields are trading near weekly highs just around 4.30%.
4 GOP senators vote against adding SAVE America Act to budget package - Four Republican senators voted against an amendment sponsored by Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) to instruct the Senate Rules Committee to find a way to add the core elements of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE America) Act to a budget reconciliation package that could pass next month with a simple-majority vote. Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) voted against Kennedy’s proposed instruction to the Senate Rules Committee to craft a bill that would ensure only American citizens vote in federal elections, require all voters to show proof of identity, and to require all ballots be counted within 36 hours of Election Day. “I think we ought to go back to having an Election Day and not an election month,” Kennedy said on the floor. Those are some of the key elements of the SAVE America Act, which President Trump has made his top legislative priority ahead of the midterm elections. “This amendment would instruct our Rules Committee to come up with an elections bill. It’s my version of the SAVE America Act, but you can call it what you want,” Kennedy said on the floor before the vote. Some proponents of the SAVE America Act, including Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), have argued that the legislation wasn’t drafted to pass the Senate under the budget reconciliation process, which generally prohibits policy changes with only a tangential budgetary impact from passing with a simple-majority vote. Kennedy, however, argued that it was worth trying to fit it into the budget reconciliation package. “Some say it can’t be done under the Budget Act and under the Byrd Rule and reconciliation. And you know what? They may be right. But you know what else? They can’t predict the future. They’re not clairvoyant,” Kennedy said. Kennedy’s motion to waive the applicable rules in the Budget Act preventing his amendment from being attached to the budget resolution failed by a vote of 48-50. Every Democrat present in the chamber voted against it. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) has condemned the SAVE America Act as “reminiscent of Jim Crow laws” and vowed that “nothing is more important than defeating this dagger to the heart of democracy.” The Senate has debated the legislation on the Senate floor for weeks but moved off it this week to debate and pass the budget resolution to prepare the way for a reconciliation package to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol through 2029. Murkowski was the only Republican senator to vote against a motion to proceed to the SAVE America Act on March 17.
Cost of Iran War Not Included in Pentagon's $1.5 Trillion Budget Request - The cost of the US war with Iran was not included in President Trump’s request for a massive $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027, according to a Pentagon budget official.“This budget was formulated, honestly, before we went into conflict with Iran,” Jules Hurst III, the Pentagon’s acting chief financial officer, told reporters on April 21, according to USA Today. The record-shattering budget is a nearly 50% increase over this year’s $1 trillion budget, but the Trump administration is going to ask Congress for even more military spending to make up for depleted weapons and other military operations related to the Iran war.Initial reports said the administration was planning to request $200 billion for the war, but the number may be revised down to $80 billion or $100 billion. Russell Vought, the director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB), told lawmakers last week that he didn’t have a “ballpark” estimate to share.An Iran war cost tracker using the minimum conservative estimates says that since the US-Israeli war against Iran was launched on February 28, it has cost the US more than $60 billion. In just the first six days of the war, the cost in munitions alone was $11.3 billion.
Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships trying to pass (AP) — The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalated again Saturday as Iran reversed its reopening of the crucial waterway and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation after the United States pressed ahead with its blockade of Iranian ports.The strait is closed until the U.S. blockade is lifted, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy said Saturday night, warning that “no vessel should make any movement from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered as cooperation with the enemy” and be targeted.New attacks on the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, threatened to deepen the global energy crisis and push the countries into renewed conflict as the war entered its eighth weekA fragile ceasefire is due to run out by Wednesday. Iran said it had received new proposals from the United States, and Pakistani mediators were working to arrange another round of direct negotiations.Iran’s joint military command earlier said “control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state ... under strict management and control of the armed forces.”Revolutionary Guard gunboats opened fire on a tanker and an unknown projectile hit a container vessel, damaging some containers, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. India’s foreign ministry said it summoned Iran’s ambassador over the “serious incident” of firing on two India-flagged merchant ships, especially after Iran earlier let several India-bound ships through.For Iran, the strait’s closure — imposed after the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28 during talks over Tehran’s nuclear program — is perhaps its most powerful weapon, threatening the world economy and inflicting political pain on President Donald Trump. For the United States, the blockade keeps up pressure and could strangle Iran’s already weakened economy.Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, issued defiant remarks on Saturday, saying the navy stands “ready to inflict bitter defeats on its enemies.” He has not been seen in public since being elevated to the post following his father’s death in Israel’s opening barrage.On Friday, Iran announced the strait’s reopening to commercial vessels after a 10-day truce was announced between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. The reopening caused oil prices to fall. Trump, however, said the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the United States. Trump had imposed the blockade after a round of historic face-to-face talks in Pakistan between the countries ended without an agreement.U.S. forces have sent 23 ships back to Iran since the blockade began on Monday, U.S. Central Command said Saturday. Trump’s comments triggered an outcry.“Americans are risking the international community, risking the global economy through these, I can say, miscalculations,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told The Associated Press, adding that the U.S. is “risking the whole ceasefire package.”
Iran says it hit US military ships with drones after American forces targeted vessel near Hormuz - in Iran reportedly launched drone strikes targeting US military vessels in the Sea of Oman after American forces seized an Iranian cargo ship accused of breaching a naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation raises concerns over the fragile ceasefire and renewed tensions in the key global shipping corridor. Iranian forces launched drone attacks targeting US military vessels in the Sea of Oman after American troops fired on and seized an Iranian commercial ship, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency. The reported strikes mark a sharp escalation in tensions between Tehran and Washington amid a fragile two-week ceasefire in the region.Tasnim said the drone attacks were carried out in direct retaliation for the earlier US action against the Iranian-flagged vessel. However, the report did not provide details on the scale of the strikes, the number of drones deployed, or whether any damage was inflicted on US assets.
Trump Threatens To 'Blow Up' the 'Whole Country' of Iran if Deal Not Reached - President Trump has threatened to “blow up” the “whole country” of Iran if Tehran doesn’t agree to a deal that he is demanding it sign, as the very fragile ceasefire appears to be on the verge of collapsing. Trump made the comments in an interview with Fox News reporter Trey Yingst. “I just spoke with President Trump for about 20 minutes, and he told me: ‘If Iran does not sign this deal, the whole country is getting blown up.’ He went on to say that bridges and power plants will be targeted if Iran does not sign this agreement,” Yingst said. The threat from Trump came after Iran said it re-closed the Strait of Hormuz after briefly declaring it was open to all commercial vessels. The Iranian government said that the waterway was again closed due to the fact that the US was maintaining its blockade on Iranian ports, a violation of the ceasefire agreement. After Iran said the strait was again closed, Iranian military vessels reportedly fired on two ships, something President Trump referenced in a post on Truth Social on Sunday, where he also threatened Iran with major attacks on its power plants and bridges. “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!” the president wrote. In the same post, Trump said that his “representatives” were going to Pakistan for negotiations with Iran, referring to US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. In another interview on Sunday, Trump said Vice President JD Vance would not attend the negotiations due to “security concerns.”Iranian media reported on Sunday that there’s been no decision in Tehran to send negotiators to Islamabad and that there wouldn’t be “as long as there is a blockade.” Iranian officials have also denied claims from President Trump that Tehran agreed to allow the US to take Iran’s uranium that’s enriched at the 60% level. “Iran’s enriched uranium is not going to be transferred anywhere. Transferring uranium to the United States has not been an option for us,” said Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei.
US military will target Iran-linked ships worldwide (AP) — The U.S. military has widened its efforts beyond the blockade of Iran’s ports to allow its forces around the world to stop any ship tied to Tehran or those suspected of carrying supplies that could help its government, from weapons to oil, metals and electronics. Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, specifically pointed to operations in the Pacific, saying the U.S. would be targeting vessels that left before the blockade began earlier this week outside the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway for energy and other shipments.U.S. forces in other areas of responsibility “will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran,” he told reporters at the Pentagon. The military also detailed an expansive lists of goods that it considers contraband, declaring that it will board, search and seize them from merchant vessels “regardless of location.” A notice published Thursday says any “goods that are destined for an enemy and that may be susceptible to use in armed conflict” are “subject to capture at any place beyond neutral territory.” The expansion of U.S. military efforts to target Iranian shipping is another pressure point for Tehran and comes as a ceasefire is set to expire in mere days. Mediators are pressing for an extension to a truce that has paused almost seven weeks of war between Israel, the U.S. and Iran.The military’s new list of banned materials includes products such as weapons, ammunition and military equipment that are classified as “absolute contraband.” However, it also lists items such as oil, iron, steel, aluminum and other goods as “conditional contraband” that it argues can be used both for civilian and military purposes.Otherwise innocuous items like electronics, power generation equipment or heavy machinery can be seized if “circumstances indicate intended military end-use,” the notice says.More than 10,000 American troops are helping enforce the blockade on Iranian ports. While no ships have yet been boarded, defense leaders say the military is warning Iran-linked ships that it could fire warning shots or escalate to other force if they try to outrun the Navy.
US Navy seizes an Iranian-flagged ship near Strait of Hormuz and Tehran vows swift response - -- The United States attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship it said had tried to evade its naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, and Iran's joint military command vowed to respond, throwing a fragile ceasefire into question days before it expires. It was the first interception since the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports began last week. Iran's joint military command called the armed boarding an act of piracy and a ceasefire violation, the state broadcaster said.With the U.S.-Iran standoff over the strait sharpening and the ceasefire expiring by Wednesday, it was not clear where President Donald Trump ’s earlier announcement on new talks with Iran now stood. He had said U.S. negotiators would head to Pakistan on Monday. The uncertainty sent oil prices rising again. One of the worst global energy crises in decades threatened to deepen.. Trump on social media said a U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer in the Gulf of Oman warned the Iranian-flagged ship, the Touska, to stop and then “stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom." U.S. Marines had custody of the U.S.-sanctioned vessel and were “seeing what’s on board!” It was not clear whether anyone was hurt. The U.S. Central Command, which didn't answer questions, said the destroyer had issued “repeated warnings over a six-hour period.” There was no comment from Iranian officials directly addressing Trump's announcement of talks. However, Iranian state media, without citing anyone beyond unnamed sources, issued brief reports suggesting that they would not happen. Minutes after the ship seizure was announced, Iranian state media reported on President Masoud Pezeshkian’s phone conversation with Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, earlier Sunday. U.S. actions, including bullying and unreasonable behavior, have led to increased suspicion that the U.S. will repeat previous patterns and “betray diplomacy," the reports cited Pezeshkian as saying. Two previous attempts at talks — last June and earlier this year — were interrupted by Israeli and U.S. attacks. On another phone call, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Pakistani counterpart, Ishaq Dar, that recent U.S. actions, rhetoric and contradictions were signs of “bad intentions and lack of seriousness in diplomacy," Iran’s state broadcaster said. Pakistan did not confirm a second round of talks, but authorities had begun tightening security in Islamabad. A regional official involved in the efforts said mediators were finalizing preparations and U.S. advance security teams were on the ground. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss preparations with the media. The White House had said Vice President JD Vance, who led the first round of historic face-to-face talks over 21 hours last weekend, would lead the U.S. delegation to Pakistan with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran on Saturday said it had received new proposals from the United States. While Iran’s chief negotiator, parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, late Saturday said “there will be no retreat in the field of diplomacy,” he acknowledged a wide gap remained between the sides.
Live updates: Iran vows swift response after US seizes vessel near Strait of Hormuz | AP News Major developments we’re following:
- The U.S. says it attacked and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz that tried to pass its naval blockade. Iran’s military headquarters says the attack and seizure marks a ceasefire violation.
- President Donald Trump said U.S. negotiators will be in Pakistan on Monday for another of talks with Iran. But several hours later, Iran had not confirmed it would attend. Trump threatened to destroy civilian infrastructure in Iran if it doesn’t take the deal that the U.S. is offering.
- The Strait of Hormuz is closed to shipping due to threats from Iran as the U.S. blockades Iranian ports.
- It remained unclear whether either side had shifted their stances on unresolved issues that derailed the last round of negotiations, including Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, its regional proxies and control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is due to expire by Wednesday. A 10-day ceasefire in Israel and Lebanon appears to be holding.
Iran’s military headquarters says the U.S. attack and seizure of an Iranian-flagged tanker marks a ceasefire violation. Iran’s state broadcaster reported that the country’s military denounced the U.S. action as “maritime piracy” and said that “Iran will respond soon.” The U.S. says it fired on the ship and seized it because it had crossed the blockade line after ignoring multiple warnings.Iran’s top diplomat told his Pakistani counterpart that Washington’s demands in negotiations and its threats to Iranian ships and ports mark “clear signs” of America’s disingenuousness.Abbas Aragchi made the remarks to Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, according to Iranian state media.It’s another indication of how the Washington-Tehran standoff is sharpening as the ceasefire is to expire on Wednesday. It could also shake up plans for a new U.S.-Iran round of talks in Islamabad this week.
Trump Says US Took Control of Iranian Cargo Ship After US Navy Destroyer 'Blew a Hole' in Its Engine Room - President Trump said on Sunday that a US warship “blew a hole” in the engine room of an Iranian cargo ship that attempted to get past the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and claimed that US Marines now “have custody” of the vessel.“Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as an aircraft carrier, tried to get past our Naval Blockade, and it did not go well for them. The US Navy Guided Missile Destroyer USS SPRUANCE intercepted the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman, and gave them fair warning to stop,” the president wrote on Truth Social. Footage released by CENTCOM of the USS Spruance firing on the Touska. “The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom. Right now, US Marines have custody of the vessel. The TOUSKA is under US Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board!” Trump added. US Central Command later released a video of the USS Spruance firing on the Iranian ship. CENTCOM said its forces intercepted the Touska while it was in the Arabian Sea on its way to Bandar Abbas, Iran. “After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room. Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room. US Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit later boarded the non-compliant vessel, which remains in US custody,” CENTCOM said.Earlier in the day, Iran’s Mehr news agency reported that the “IRGC Navy rapid reaction forces responded to the shooting at an Iranian commercial ship by American terrorist forces around the Sea of Oman and forced the Americans to retreat and flee.” It’s unclear whether the Mehr report refers to the same incident, since it didn’t name the Iranian vessel.The incident comes after Iran announced it was reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic following the declaration of a ceasefire in Lebanon, but Tehran quickly reversed the move because the US maintained its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran views the blockade as a violation of the ceasefire since a blockade is an act of war.President Trump has been threatening major strikes on Iran if Tehran doesn’t agree to US demands for a deal, saying on Sunday that if there’s no agreement, the “whole country is getting blown up.”
Pakistan Army Chief Tells Trump US Blockade Is Obstacle to Peace Talks With Iran - --Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshall Asim Munir, has told President Trump by phone that the US blockade on Iranian ports is a major obstacle to resuming talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Reuters reported on Monday. A Pakistani security source told the outlet that Trump told Munir he would consider his advice, but so far, there’s no sign the US intends to ease the blockade, which dramatically escalated on Sunday as US forces in the Gulf of Oman attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship. The source told Reuters that Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had spoken to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and asked whether he would send a delegation to Islamabad, but Pezeshkian said it would not happen unless the blockade is lifted.Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, who has been involved in talks with the US, also suggested that Tehran won’t negotiate because of the blockade. “Trump, by imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire, seeks to turn this negotiating table— in his own imagination— into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering. We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” he said in a post on X.Esmaeil Baghaei, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, said on Monday that Iran currently has no plan for new talks with the US “so far,” suggesting Tehran’s position could change if the US takes action to lift the blockade.President Trump has been telling a very different story, claiming in a Monday morning interview with Fox News that a deal could be signed “today” and that Vice President JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan, but the vice president remains in Washington as the status of the negotiations is unclear. On Monday night, Axios reported that Vance was expected to leave for Islamabad on Tuesday morning.The current ceasefire between the US and Iran is due to expire on Wednesday, April 22, unless a deal is reached or the deadline is extended. Trump has also been threatening major attacks on Iran’s power plants and bridges if Tehran doesn’t capitulate to US demands, saying on Sunday that he was ready to “blow up” the “whole country.”
Day 52 of Middle East conflict - Trump says extension of ceasefire with Iran is ‘highly unlikely’ - Iran’s Foreign Ministry called for the release of the Iranian cargo vessel seized by the US Navy on Sunday, as well as “its sailors, crew and their families.” Iran has vowed to retaliate for the seizure. US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran ends “Wednesday evening Washington time,” adding it’s “highly unlikely” he would extend it if a deal is not reached before then.Vice President JD Vance and top US officials are expected to depart Tuesday for Pakistan ahead of a potential second round of talks, according to sources. Trump projected confidence Tehran would come to the table although Iran’s Foreign Ministry earlier insisted there were no negotiations.A second round of talks between Israel and Lebanon is scheduled for Thursday, according to Israeli and US officials. President Donald Trump insisted Monday that Iran is “going to negotiate” ahead of anticipated talks in Pakistan. Speaking in a short phone interview on “The John Fredericks Show,” a conservative radio program, Trump projected confidence that Tehran would come to the table, while warning of consequences if it does not. “Well, they’re going to negotiate, and if they don’t, they’re going to see problems like they’ve never seen before,” the president said. “Hopefully they’ll make a fair deal, and they’ll build their country back up,” Trump continued, adding that when they do so, “they will not have a nuclear weapon.” Before ending the call, Trump returned to his justification for military action. “And I have to say we had no choice in Iran,” he said. “It wasn’t like we had a choice. We had to do it.” “We’ve done a great job, and we’ll get it closed out, and everybody’s going to be happy,” he added before hanging up.
US, Iran exchange threats as fragile ceasefire set to expire - Al Jazeera -Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has said Iran is “prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield” after United States President Donald Trump threatened Tehran with “problems like they’ve never seen before” if the two-week ceasefire expires on Wednesday without a deal. The war of words comes as the second round of US-Iran peace talks scheduled to take place this week in Pakistan remains in limbo after the US seized an Iranian-flagged vessel near the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, angering Iranian authorities and provoking another surge in global oil prices. Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said, “There is no official confirmation on whether Iran is going to take part in talks in Islamabad.”“We know that Iran has tried to keep the door ajar to diplomacy, so there is still a possibility,” he added. In an overnight post on X, Ghalibaf expressed anger at Trump for “imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire”.“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” he said.This was a “mixed message”, according to Asadi, “saying Iran is ready for negotiations but not under terms imposed by the US”.“There will be no easy negotiations, if, of course, they even happen, as there are still several complicated sticking points. Both sides have a long list of demands, including relating to the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions, war reparations, ballistic missiles and Iran’s regional relations,” Asadi said.Meanwhile, Trump said he was confident that Iran would negotiate, adding that the country would otherwise “see problems”.He told PBS News on Monday that if the ceasefire expires without a deal, then “lots of bombs start going off”.“Well, they’re going to negotiate, and if they don’t, they’re going to see problems like they’ve never seen before,” Trump said in a phone call to the conservative radio programme the John Fredericks Show.“Hopefully, they’ll make a fair deal, and they’ll build their country back up, but when they do it, they will not have a nuclear weapon,” Trump said. “We can’t allow that to happen, that could be the destruction of the world, and we’re not going to let that happen.”
Trump Defends Iran War in Series of Posts on Truth Social - -- President Trump on Monday issued a series of posts on his Truth Social account defending his war with Iran and a potential diplomatic deal that he may reach with Tehran, though the state of the negotiations remains unclear. The president started with a post where he said that the state of Israel didn’t talk him into launching the war, an apparent response to the reports and commentary about how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu played a major role in convincing Trump to launch the war.Earlier this month, The New York Times reported that Trump launched the war after being briefed at the White House by Netanyahu and other Israeli officials, who made a series of claims that didn’t come true, including that Iran was ripe for regime change. But the report said that Trump was very hawkish on the issue and closely aligned with Netanyahu for many months, suggesting the US president didn’t need much convincing.“Israel never talked me into the war with Iran, the results of Oct. 7th, added to my lifelong opinion that IRAN CAN NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON, did,” Trump said in his post. While he and Vice President JD Vance have framed the war as about preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb, there was no evidence either before the current war or the June 2025 war that Tehran was attempting to develop one.Trump continued, “I watch and read the FAKE NEWS Pundits and Polls in total disbelief. 90% of what they say are lies and made up stories, and the polls are rigged, much as the 2020 Presidential Election was rigged. Just like the results in Venezuela, which the media doesn’t like talking about, the results in Iran will be amazing – And if Iran’s new leaders (Regime Change!) are smart, Iran can have a great and prosperous future!”A few hours later, the president insisted in another post that the deal he may make with Iran will be “FAR BETTER than the JCPOA,” referring to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal that was signed during the Obama administration, something Trump campaigned strongly against in the 2016 election and later tore up in his first administration, leading to Iran increasing its uranium enrichment.In a follow-up post, Trump responded to Democratic criticism of the timeline of his war, listing off the length of previous US conflicts. “Despite World War I lasting 4 years, 3 months, and 14 days, World War II lasting 6 years and 1 day, the Korean War lasting 3 years, 1 month, and 2 days, the Vietnam War lasting 19 years, 5 months, and 29 days, and Iraq lasting 8 years, 8 months, and 28 days, they like to say that I promised 6 weeks to defeat Iran, and actually, from the Military standpoint, it was far faster than that, but I’m not going to let them rush the United States into making a Deal that is not as good as it could have been,” he said.The president rejected the idea that he was under pressure to make a deal, saying that “Time is not my adversary.” About a half hour later, Trump insisted that he’s winning the war and lashed out at media outlets for negative conflict.“I’m winning a War, BY A LOT, things are going very well, our Military has been amazing and, if you read the Fake News, like The Failing New York Times, the absolutely horrendous and disgusting Wall Street Journal, or the now almost defunct, fortunately, Washington Post, you would actually think we are losing the War,” he wrote.In his final post of the afternoon, the president claimed many tankers were headed to the US to purchase oil due to Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. “The Iranian leadership has forced hundreds of Ships toward the United States, mostly Texas, Louisiana, and Alaska, to get their Oil — Thank you very much!” he said.
Iran: No decision yet on new talks in Pakistan due to US contradictory messages - Iran has not made a final decision on whether to participate in the next round of Pakistan-mediated talks with the United States, citing contradictory messages, inconsistent behavior and unacceptable actions by the American side, the Foreign Ministry spokesman said on Tuesday. “No final decision has been made yet on whether to participate in the Pakistan talks,” Esmail Baghaei said in a televised interview on IRIB’s News Network. “The reason is the contradictory messages, inconsistent behavior and unacceptable actions of the American side,” he said. Pakistan has been brokering indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington following the illegal 40-day war that began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched their unprovoked aggression against Iran. A two-week ceasefire took effect on April 8 and will expire on Wednesday. The spokesman emphasized that any diplomatic process must be weighed according to its benefits and harms. “Going back and forth is neither a criterion for success nor inherently valuable. What matters is that participation in a diplomatic process serves our national interests,” he said. “That is why decision-making on this process, like any other matter, is done carefully and with all considerations in mind.” Baghaei noted that the ceasefire was violated by the US side from the very beginning. “The ceasefire was supposed to include Lebanon as part of the agreement, but unfortunately they did not abide by it,” he said. He recalled that after the Islamabad talks, an understanding was reached and Iran’s foreign minister announced that Tehran would fulfill its commitments, but Washington responded by saying that it will continue the naval blockade. “A naval blockade is both illegal under international law and a clear violation of the ceasefire understanding,” Baghaei said. He also noted the subsequent attack on an Iranian commercial vessel. The spokesman stressed that Iran negotiates carefully and, if it accepts a commitment, it adheres to it. “Even after the US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran continued to fully implement it for one year, then only gradually reduced some commitments every two months. This shows a responsible and committed approach,” he said. He described US actions against shipping as “maritime piracy at the state level.” Iran’s brave decision to accept ceasefire Baghaei said Iran’s decision to accept the ceasefire and enter talks was “very courageous.” “After nearly 40 days of fierce defense, despite heavy losses, including the martyrdom of our Leader and commanders, the enemy did not achieve any of its goals thanks to the people’s resistance,” he said. He added that Iran enters a diplomatic process when it deems it necessary for national interests, but the process must be result-oriented. US diplomatic gestures inconsistent with actions “The diplomatic gestures and claims of diplomacy are inconsistent with their behavior,” Baghaei said. “This should be clear to our people, to the region, and to world public opinion that may sometimes be influenced by US claims.” He noted that international media have published much false information recently, but Iran is transparent with its people.
Iran seeks to wait Trump out as ceasefire deadline nears - Preparations are being made in Islamabad for a high-stakes meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials to extend a ceasefire and avoid returning to open conflict. Iranian officials have not yet publicly committed to appearing in Islamabad, where the White House says Vice President Vance will arrive Wednesday for talks. He’s expected to be joined by the president’s special envoy for peace missions Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, for support. “I sent my A-Team,” President Trump said in a short interview with PBS. Trump is rejecting an extension of a ceasefire, which expires on April 22, and calling for Iran to sign a deal with the U.S. to block its pathway to a nuclear weapon or risk “lots of bombs” going off. Iranian officials have been sending mixed signals over the talks, though Iran watchers in the U.S. say that may be more a question of tactics than representing a divergence of goals. “Factionalism has been something perennial in the Iranian political system,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank based in Washington, D.C. “Some of them respond to pressure differently; these are folks with different tactics trying to achieve the same goal … the survival of the Islamic Republic.” Iran is nominally under the leadership of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the previous supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening day of the U.S.-Israeli strikes. But the younger Khamenei has not yet been seen in public amid rumors that he was badly wounded, and he has only communicated through written statements. Iran’s top negotiators are the speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Trump on Monday implored Iran’s leading officials to come to a deal. “And if Iran’s new leaders (Regime Change!) are smart, Iran can have a great and prosperous future!” he wrote on his social media site Truth Social.
No Iranian delegation in Islamabad, says report as Tehran rejects talks under threats No Iranian delegation has arrived in Islamabad for talks with the United States, says a report, as senior Iranian officials declared they will not engage in talks "under the shadow of threats" following renewed American aggression at sea. Contrary to numerous international and regional media reports suggesting an Iranian delegation was set to arrive for talks, IRIB News Agency reported on Tuesday that "to date, no delegation from Iran has gone to Islamabad, Pakistan; neither a main nor a subsidiary delegation; neither primary nor secondary." The report dismissed speculation about scheduled meetings, stating that news circulated since Saturday about the "departure" or "arrival" of an Iranian team, or even specific meeting times, was entirely without basis. This firm stance follows blatant breaches of a two-week-old ceasefire by Washington. Iranian officials have maintained a consistent position since Sunday evening, asserting that the "continuation of talks depends on a change in American behavior and positions." Adding his voice to the resolute message, Iranian Parliament Speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Monday that the US President was attempting to force Tehran into submission. "Trump, by imposing a blockade and violating the ceasefire, wants – in his own delusion – to turn the negotiating table into a table of surrender or to justify renewed warmongering," he said in a post on X. The speaker made Tehran’s position unequivocal. "We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats," he said, warning, "Over the past two weeks, we have prepared ourselves to reveal new cards on the battlefield." The uncertainty shrouding the next round of talks escalated after the US Navy targeted an Iranian merchant vessel in the Sea of Oman on Sunday. Iran’s military condemned the incident as a "criminal operation" and "maritime piracy," reiterating that its response posture remains active. The backdrop to these renewed tensions is a 40-day US-Israeli war of aggression that began on February 28 with the assassination of high-level Iranian figures and civilians. After 40 days of criminal aggression, the US agreed to a ten-point proposal from Iran, leading to trilateral talks mediated by Pakistan. While Iran subsequently opened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, it was forced to close the chokepoint again on Sunday after the US maintained its naval blockade in breach of the deal. President Masoud Pezeshkian on Monday dismissed the American ultimatums as "pressure tactics," insisting Iran will not submit to coercion. This came as President Trump issued a direct threat on his social media pages, stating, "We’re offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single power plant, and every single bridge, in Iran.” The ongoing US blockade is also reportedly frustrating the mediation efforts. According to reports, Pakistani army chief Asim Munir conveyed to President Trump that the continued naval blockade of Iranian ports was hampering Islamabad's ability to facilitate a permanent end to the war.
Trump Says Opening Hormuz Would 'Kill Deal', Extends Ceasefire - Palestine Chronicle --US President Donald Trump said that opening the Strait of Hormuz would make any agreement with Iran impossible, linking maritime access directly to ongoing negotiations. In a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, Trump said he had been told Iran wanted to reopen the strait, warning that such a move would derail diplomacy. “People approached me four days ago, saying, ‘Sir, Iran wants to open up the Strait, immediately.’ But if we do that, there can never be a Deal with Iran, unless we blow up the rest of their Country, their leaders included,” he said. In a separate post, Trump claimed Iran is under severe financial strain and is pushing to reopen the Strait out of economic necessity. “Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately- Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!” he wrote. The claims come amid intensified US pressure on Iran’s maritime activity and continued enforcement of a naval blockade. Since April 13, the United States has imposed a naval blockade on maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports along the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor handling roughly one-fifth of global energy shipments. Washington has indicated that non-Iranian vessels may still pass, provided they do not engage with Iranian-controlled mechanisms. Despite the restrictions, Iranian-linked shipping continues. According to Fars news agency, fourteen vessels crossed the Strait in the past 24 hours, including three oil tankers. Seven of those ships were flying the Iranian flag, based on data from a Chinese maritime tracking center. Trump described the blockade as “a tremendous success,” saying it would remain in place until a “final deal” with Iran is reached. Trump continued to frame the situation in terms of pressure and military leverage. “We’ve taken out their navy, we’ve taken out their air force, we’ve taken out their leaders,” he claimed in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, adding that such actions have shaped the current dynamics. He also suggested that the outcome amounts to “regime change,” saying, “It is regime change, no matter what you want to call it… I’ve done it indirectly.” At the same time, he expressed confidence that Washington would ultimately secure “a great deal,” stating, “I think they have no choice.”
Report: US Increasing the Pressure on Iraq to Reduce Ties With Iran - The US is taking steps to ramp up the pressure on Iraq to reduce its ties with Iran and rein in Iran-aligned militias in the country after the escalations in the country amid the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, The New York Times reported on Tuesday. Iraqi officials told the paper that in its latest step, the US has suspended cooperation and funding for Iraq’s security service. Iraqi reports said that the US had also halted shipments of physical US dollars to Iraq, a move that would seriously hurt the Iraqi dinar, but the Central Bank of Iraq denied those reports. The US control of Iraq’s foreign reserves and oil revenue, a result of the 2003 US invasion, gives the Trump administration the ability to inflict significant economic pain on the country, and the threat has been used to pressure Iraq regarding the formation of its next government. Hussein Allawi, a security adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, said that the US security support will be halted until Iraq forms its next government, which could take days or weeks. Earlier this year, Trump threatened that there would be consequences for Iraq if former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki became the country’s next leader. Iraq exploded during the US-Israeli war against Iran, as drone attacks targeted US assets across the country, and the US was bombing the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mostly Shia militias that was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS and was absorbed by Iraq’s security forces. Many of the drone attacks against the US were claimed by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, another coalition of Shia militias that includes some of the factions in the PMF. US airstrikes killed dozens of PMF fighters, including senior commanders, and one US attack on a PMF base killed seven members of the Iraqi military. The US has been drawing down its forces from Iraq and recently pulled the last of its troops from Syria, but the US still maintains a significant presence in Iraqi Kurdistan.
US Forces Board Iran-Linked Tanker in the Indian Ocean - The US War Department said on Tuesday that US forces boarded an Iranian-linked tanker in the Indian Ocean as the US continues to enforce a blockade against Iran, despite it being a major obstacle to peace talks. The Pentagon said that the tanker, the Tifani, was carrying Iranian oil and was previously sanctioned by the US, which doesn’t give the US the authority to seize a vessel in international waters, despite the Trump administration’s claims. A video of the seizure released by the War Department. “We will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran — anywhere they operate,” the US War Department said in a statement that included a video of the boarding.A US military official told The New York Times that US forces took over the vessel in the Bay of Bengal and that it was now up to the White House to decide what to do with the ship and its cargo.The incident came two days after the US Navy fired on and boarded an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman that it said was attempting to break the US blockade of Iranian ports. While the US claims many ships have turned away from Iran, according to data from Lloyd’s List, at least 26 ships carrying oil and gas have sailed in and out of Iranian ports since the blockade started.
Trump announces unilateral extension of ceasefire with Iran amid illegal blockade - US President Donald Trump has extended a two-week ceasefire with Iran while announcing the continuation of an illegal blockade on the Islamic Republic's ports and vessels—despite Tehran's insistence that the blockade must be lifted for bilateral talks to continue. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said the extension came "upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan." He added that he had "directed our military to continue the blockade." The Islamic Republic, however, unequivocally insisted on the removal of the blockade, stating that it would not rejoin negotiations under pressure. Trump also said the United States would continue to cease its aggression "until such time as their [Iran's] leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal." Trump announced the two-week cessation of aggression on April 7 after agreeing to a ten-point proposal from Iran to permanently end the aggression. It came after 100 waves of decisive retaliatory strikes by Iran's armed forces against the US and the Israeli regime's unprovoked war of aggression against the country. The reprisals delivered severe blows to sensitive and strategic American and Israeli targets across the region, including those located in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. Talks were subsequently initiated in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad, but stopped short of yielding an agreement amid Washington's maximalist demands and its refusal to back down from its unreasonable stances.
Trump Says He Will Extend Iran Ceasefire But Maintain Blockade on Iranian Ports - President Trump said on Tuesday afternoon that he will extend the ceasefire with Iran, a statement that came hours before its expiration and after he said that he wouldn’t extend the truce. Trump made a statement in a post on Truth Social where he also said that the US military blockade on Iranian ports would continue despite Iranian officials maintaining that talks won’t resume until it is lifted.“Based on the fact that the Government of Iran is seriously fractured, not unexpectedly so and, upon the request of Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, of Pakistan, we have been asked to hold our Attack on the Country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal,” Trump said.“I have therefore directed our Military to continue the Blockade and, in all other respects, remain ready and able, and will therefore extend the Ceasefire until such time as their proposal is submitted, and discussions are concluded, one way or the other,” he added.Earlier in the day, in an interview with CNBC, Trump insisted that he still expects the US to make a “great deal” with Iran but said that time was running out. When asked if he would allow the ceasefire to continue if there was diplomatic progress but no agreement, he said, “Well, I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time.”Trump said that the US has used the ceasefire to “restock” its military and insisted that Iran’s military has been destroyed, though according to US officials speaking to The New York Times, US intelligence assesses that Tehran likely has access to the majority of its missiles and launchers.The president was then asked if he would resume bombing Iran if a deal isn’t reached on Tuesday or Wednesday, and said, “Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with. But we’re ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go.”Vice President JD Vance, US envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner were expected to travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran, but Iranian officials held firm that the negotiations wouldn’t happen unless the US ends the blockade. “Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X on Tuesday. “Striking a commercial vessel and taking its crew hostage is an even greater violation. Iran knows how to neutralize restrictions, how to defend its interests, and how to resist bullying.”
‘Hands on Trigger’: Iran Warns Forces Ready to Strike US, Israel Immediately - Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters warned on Wednesday that the country’s armed forces remain on full alert, ready to respond immediately to any US or Israeli aggression. Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaghari said Iranian forces have long maintained a state of readiness, describing them as having their “hands on the trigger” amid continued threats from US President Donald Trump and military officials. He stressed that any attack on Iran would trigger a swift and decisive response, adding that Iranian forces have already identified predetermined targets. Zolfaghari warned that both the United States and Israel would face consequences “stronger and harsher than before.” In parallel remarks, Brigadier General Majid Mousavi, commander of the aerospace force of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps, said any renewed aggression after the ceasefire would prompt immediate retaliation. In statements carried by Mehr news agency, Mousavi said that Iranian forces have remained on high alert even during the ceasefire. “Your sons, stationed behind the launch platforms, have humiliated the arrogance of the oppressors for forty nights,” he said, adding that forces remain in full readiness to defend the country. “With watchful eyes and hand on the trigger, in full readiness to defend this ancient land and a civilization rooted in thousands of years,” he added. In a separate statement marking the anniversary of its establishment, the IRGC said it is fully prepared to deliver new achievements and “surprises” beyond the enemy’s expectations. The statement described the current phase as a “silence in military confrontation,” stressing the need for continued vigilance during the ceasefire and ongoing negotiations. It added that Iran’s missile and drone operations have already inflicted significant damage on Israeli and US military infrastructure in the region. The IRGC warned that any renewed aggression would be met with “immediate, decisive, and crushing responses,” including strikes targeting remaining assets beyond what the enemy anticipates. Iranian military officials emphasized that all branches of the armed forces remain at the highest level of readiness, with coordination across units to respond to any escalation. The warnings come amid heightened tensions following recent confrontations at sea and uncertainty surrounding the future of the ceasefire. Iran’s leadership has repeatedly stressed that while it does not seek escalation, it will respond forcefully to any attack on its territory or assets.
Iran fires on 3 ships in the Strait of Hormuz as US maintains blockade and diplomacy stalls (AP) — Iran fired on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz and seized two of them on Wednesday, intensifying its assault on shipping in the key waterway. The attacks came a day after U.S. President Donald Trump extended a ceasefire while maintaining an American blockade of Iranian ports. The standoff between the U.S. and Iran has effectively choked off nearly all exports through the strait — where 20% of the world’s traded oil passes in peacetime — with no end in sight. Iranian media said the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was bringing the two ships to Iran, marking a further escalation. The conflict has already sent gas prices skyrocketing far beyond the region and raised the cost of food and a wide array of other products. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, nosed over $100 per barrel, marking a 35% increase from prewar levels, but stock markets still appear to be shrugging it off. The European Union energy commissioner, Dan Jørgensen, warned of lasting impact for consumers and businesses, likening it to other major energy crises over the last half-century. He said the disruption is costing Europe around 500 million euros ($600 million) each day. Technomar, the management company behind the Liberian-registered Epaminondas, said it was “approached and fired upon by a manned gunboat” off the coast of Oman. It said the ship’s bridge had been damaged. A second cargo ship came under fire hours later, with no report of damage, though the vessel was then stopped in the water. No injuries to the crew of either vessel were reported. The MSC Francesca’s owner could not be immediately reached for comment. The Guard attacked a third ship, identified as the Euphoria, which had become “stranded” on the Iranian coast, Iranian media reported, without elaborating. There have been more than 30 attacks on ships in the Mideast since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28 with a surprise attack on Iran. Before then, the strait was open for all traffic. Vortexa, an analytics firm focusing on global energy and freight markets, said it has recorded 34 movements of sanctioned and Iranian-linked tankers in and out of the Persian Gulf in the week after the U.S. imposed its blockade on April 13. The firm identified 19 outbound and 15 inbound movements. Six of the outbound movements were “confirmed laden with Iranian crude, representing about 10.7 million barrels,” it said in an email. It was not immediately clear whether all those barrels reached markets overseas.
Trump claims US has total control over strait of Hormuz after Iran seizes two container ships - Donald Trump has again said that the US has “total control over the strait of Hormuz”, adding that Iran’s leadership was so hobbled by infighting that it was unclear who was in charge. But the US president’s claim seemed questionable in the face of the seizure of two container ships by Iranian commandos and a US report warning it could take six months to clear the strait of mines. Trump’s comments on Thursday came after US special forces boarded a stateless oil tanker in the Indian Ocean, which the Pentagon claimed was carrying Iranian crude oil. Footage purportedly shows Iranian forces seize two vessels in the strait of Hormuz - video 1:14 Footage purportedly shows Iranian forces seize two vessels in the strait of Hormuz - video The military operation took place hours after Iran’s seizure of the two container ships, with the two sides continuing to impose competing blockades on the strait, keeping global oil prices at about $100 (£74) a barrel. While US forces have proved capable of stopping ships coming out of Iranian ports, they have still not demonstrated the capacity to open the strait to vessels coming from ports in allied Gulf states. The impact of the dual blockades has been compounded by the presence of sea mines in the strait. In a briefing to Congress, the Pentagon warned it could take up to six months to clear all the suspected mines from the sea routes, according to a report in the Washington Post. The report said approximately 20 mines were thought to have been placed in the strait, some deposited by small boats, and others manoeuvred into place remotely, making them harder to locate. The Pentagon’s warning suggested that the impact of the war on the global economy could linger long after any peace deal was agreed. A Pentagon spokesperson described the report as “inaccurate” but did not provide specific objections. In his Truth Social post, Trump said that US minesweepers were working “at a tripled up level” and that he had ordered the US navy “to shoot and kill” any boat mining the waterway. “There is to be no hesitation,” said Trump. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, said in a CNBC interview that the world was facing “the biggest energy security threat in history”. On Thursday night, Trump told reporters that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend a ceasefire between Israel and the Hezbollah militant group by three weeks after talks at the White House. Hezbollah has not been a participant in the talks and bouts of fighting have continued throughout the most recent truce. On Wednesday an Israeli strike killed Amal Khalil, a well-known Lebanese journalist covering southern Lebanon. Separately, Trump was asked how long he was willing to wait for a peace deal with Iran and he replied: “Don’t rush me.” “Their navy is gone. Their air force is gone, their anti-aircraft is gone … maybe they loaded up a little bit during the two-week hiatus, but we’ll knock that out in about one day, if they did,” he added. “I want to make the best deal. I could make a deal right now … but I don’t want to do that. I want to have it everlasting,” Trump said. Iran has refused to attend peace talks with the US in Pakistan, a snub that Trump attributed to a lack of consensus in Tehran on negotiating strategy. The Iranian regime said it would not attend talks while the US was violating a Pakistani-brokered ceasefire, in particular during the imposition of a naval blockade.
White House says Iran seizing 2 ships doesn’t violate ceasefire terms - Iran taking control of two ships is not a violation of the truce terms because “these were not U.S. or Israeli ships, these were two international vessels,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told Fox News Channel. She said Iran’s navy has been decimated and that the ships in question “were taken by speedy gun boats,” meaning that Iran is acting “like a bunch of pirates.” Leavitt said Trump’s blockade remains in place “on ships coming to and from Iranian ports” and that the seizure by Iranian forces “is piracy that we are seeing on display.”
Big defeat to big lies: Trump peddles Iran discord fiction to mask US military, strategic failures - After 40 days of failed military adventure against the Islamic Republic of Iran, followed by the diplomatic debacle in Islamabad with Iran calling the shots, a new reality is settling over the region, one that Washington is desperately trying to obscure. The US war machine not only failed to achieve its stated objectives – a widely acknowledged reality – but it also suffered its most significant military and strategic defeat in decades. And now, unable to accept that reality, it has fallen back on its oldest weapon: the "big lie." The first battlefield was military, as Americans were eager to reveal their much-hyped “military card,” bragging about being the “most powerful military in the world.” For over a month, the United States – backed by its most advanced naval assets, air power, and the full weight of its global and regional alliances – attempted to pressure the Iranian nation into submission or retreat. The result: A humiliating defeat that quickly revealed the limits of much-hyped American power. From the strategic waters of the Persian Gulf to the skies over Yemen and Lebanon, Iran and its allies in the Axis of Resistance not only held their ground but dictated the terms of engagement, forcing the aggressors to plead for a ceasefire. By the time the guns fell silent, it was Washington, not Tehran, that was begging for a ceasefire – not once, but twice. The first request came immediately after the imposed war had completed 40 days, when Washington agreed to Iran’s ten-point proposal. The second came as a unilateral extension earlier this week, wrapped in the language of magnanimity but born of necessity. It was not a sign of goodwill. It was a strategic retreat. The negotiating table has proven no kinder to the United States. Time and again, American officials have sought to frame the post-war dynamic as one requiring Iranian concessions: excessive limits on the missile program, the removal of enriched uranium, and the dismantling of ties with the resistance front. Yet every single one of these demands has been met with Iranian steadfastness – backed overwhelmingly by public opinion. A latest poll conducted by Iran's IRIB Research Center found an overwhelming majority of Iranians reject each of these core American conditions. The survey, conducted during and after the war, revealed that 85.7 percent of respondents said Iran should not accept restrictions on its missile industry, while 82.6 percent opposed the removal of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium from the country. Also, 79.4 percent of people rejected shutting down uranium enrichment as a US condition. Public opposition extends to core issues of sovereignty and regional strategy as well. The poll showed that 73.7 percent of Iranians said the country should not accept unrestricted passage of ships through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, and 68.1 percent opposed severing cooperation with the Resistance Front. With this level of popular support, the Iranian side – which clearly holds the upper hand – has no reason to offer any concessions. The opposing side has won nothing: not on land, not at sea, not at the table. And in the end, it is always the winner who takes it all. Having lost all military and strategic leverage, Washington has now – quite unsurprisingly and predictably – resorted to its trademark practice: the fabrication of lies. In this context, that means peddling the so-called "internal discord" within Iran's leadership. The narrative being pushed by American policy wonks suggests that senior Iranian figures are divided over the future of negotiations and the continuation of the imposed war. But this is not intelligence. It is not journalism. It is propaganda straight from the Goebbels playbook: repeat a lie loudly enough, and public opinion will eventually accept it as truth. The claim is demonstrably false. Iran's silence in the face of repeated enemy overtures is not a sign of weakness or infighting. On the contrary, it is a calculated strategic posture. For decades, the United States operated on a comfortable assumption: that Iran's reactions were predictable – a known diplomatic rhythm that could be anticipated and exploited. That era is now over. Iran has entered a new phase of asymmetrical engagement with the enemy, one defined by unpredictability, strategic patience, and an absolute refusal to be read before entering the room. This very element of unpredictability has left the enemy bewildered, and it’s no longer a secret. And that bewilderment is palpable. When the US Secretary of the Navy resigns in the midst of a naval confrontation – the most expensive and strategically vital branch of the entire American military – it signals something far deeper than routine political turnover. It signals a deep and irreparable fracture at the very heart of the US decision-making apparatus. More than that, it points to a rotten system that is imploding from within.
US Official Says Trump's Iran Ceasefire Extension Is Not Open-Ended - -- A US official has told Axios that President Trump’s extension of the ceasefire with Iran will not be open-ended and suggested it could last just “three to five days,” though that exact timetable was later denied by the White House. The Trump administration is attempting to frame the lack of talks in Pakistan as related to divisions between the Iranian leadership, but Iranian officials have been clear that they won’t engage in further negotiations as long as the US is enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports.US officials speaking to Axios reporter Barak Ravid continued to push the narrative that Iran’s government is not cohesive. “Trump is willing to give another three to five days of ceasefire to allow the Iranians to get their shit together,” one US source told Ravid.US officials are claiming there are fractures between the Iranian military and civilian leadership, pointing to the fact that the IRGC attacked ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz a day after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the strait was open to commercial traffic. But Iran’s Supreme National Security Council released a statement making it clear that the strait was re-closed due to the US maintaining the blockade on Iran, which it considers to be a ceasefire violation, a view that’s been affirmed by Araghchi. “Blockading Iranian ports is an act of war and thus a violation of the ceasefire,” the Iranian Foreign Minister wrote on X on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Iranian officials continued to stress that the US blockade must be lifted before talks can happen. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has welcomed dialogue and agreement and continues to do so. Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations,” Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, who was involved in the first round of talks with the US in Islamabad, made similar comments on X. “A complete ceasefire only makes sense if it is not violated by the maritime blockade and the hostage-taking of the world’s economy, and if the Zionist warmongering across all fronts is halted; reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible with such a flagrant breach of the ceasefire,” he said. “They did not achieve their goals through military aggression, nor will they through bullying. The only way forward is to recognize the rights of the Iranian nation.”
Iran's military warns US, Israel about an even harsher lesson' - Iran's highest operational command unit has again strongly warned the US and the Israeli regime against any instance of aggression targeting the Islamic Republic, saying the country's retaliation to such transgression would "immediately" strike pre-determined targets. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which is responsible for coordinating operations between the country's Army and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), delivered the remarks in a statement on Tuesday. "Our capable and powerful forces have been at full readiness for a long time and are on trigger," spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari noted. "In the event of any aggression or action against the Islamic Republic, they will immediately strike pre-determined targets with full force and face the aggressor America and the child-killing Zionist regime with an even harsher lesson than before," he added. The warning, the spokesman stated, had come "in view of the repeated threats from the US president and the commanders of that country’s aggressive and terrorist military." On April 7, President Donald Trump announced a two-week lull in the unprovoked aggression that the United States had launched together with the Israeli regime against Iran 40 days before. The announcement followed at least 100 waves of determined and successful retaliation by Iran's Armed Forces against numerous strategic and sensitive American and Israeli targets across the region. Talks went ahead subsequently in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, but stopped short of yielding a deal amid the US's maximalist demands and its refusal to abandon its unreasonable positions. Further talks were expected to take place, but the Islamic Republic said it would not rejoin the process unless Washington lifted an illegal blockade it had imposed against Iranian vessels and ports. On Monday, Trump threatened Iran with "overwhelming military force," saying "lots of bombs [will] start going off" in the absence of a deal resulting from talks between the two sides. Also on Tuesday, though, the US president announced extension of the ceasefire after the Islamic Republic retained its stance.
US peace efforts with Iran stall - Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended -Lebanon and Israel extended their ceasefire for three weeks after a high-level meeting at the White House.Trump hosted Israel's ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter and Lebanese ambassador to the U.S. Nada Moawad in the Oval Office for a second round of U.S.-facilitated talks. The U.S. president said that he looked forward to hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in the near future.The Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, set to expire on Sunday, has yielded a significant reduction in violence, but, attacks have continued in southern Lebanon.Earlier on Thursday, Iran flaunted its tightened grip over the Strait of Hormuz with a video of commandos in a speedboat storming a huge cargo ship. Trump dismissed the threat posed by Iran's "little-wise-guy ships." He added that he was in no hurry for a deal, but if Iran did not want one, "I’ll finish it up militarily.” Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israel was waiting for a "green light" from the U.S. to resume the war. Tehran says it will not consider opening the strait until the U.S. lifts its blockade of Iran's shipping, which Washington imposed during the ceasefire and Tehran calls a violation of that truce.Trump said this week he would indefinitely extend what had been a two-week ceasefire to allow for further peace talks, but no plans have been announced.
Violations, threats, blockade main obstacle to genuine talks: President Pezeshkian - The Islamic Republic of Iran has invariably welcomed dialogue and agreement, but Washington’s constant breach of commitments, naval blockade and military threats remain the main obstacles to genuine negotiations, President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Wednesday. In a post on X, the president reiterated Tehran’s openness to diplomacy while calling out Washington’s contradictory behavior. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has welcomed dialogue and agreement and continues to do so,” Pezeshkian wrote. “Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations. The world sees your endless hypocritical rhetoric and contradiction between claims and actions,” he added. The United States and Israel launched their illegal, unprovoked war of aggression against Iran on February 28, assassinating Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei and striking military installations and civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals and bridges. Since then, Iran has demonstrated its responsible approach by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, despite having the upper hand on the battlefield after 100 waves of decisive retaliatory strikes under Operation True Promise 4. Despite the ceasefire, Washington keeps highlighting a naval blockade of Iranian ports. Tehran considers it illegal under international law and a clear violation of the truce. The United States has also threatened further military action, while its officials have issued contradictory statements about their commitment to diplomacy. Iranian officials have said no decision has been made yet on whether to take part in a second round of negotiations in Islamabad, citing US violations of the ceasefire, including the naval blockade.
Live updates: Trump orders U.S. military to 'shoot and kill' Iranian boats mining Strait of Hormuz
- The U.S. military says it has boarded another tanker involved in smuggling Iranian oil, as the intensifying maritime standoff between the two countries leaves the key Strait of Hormuz trade route effectively shut. Tehran attacked three commercial ships and seized two of them yesterday, saying the U.S. naval blockade is a “main obstacle” to new peace talks.
- President Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military to "shoot and kill" any Iranian boats laying mines in the strait, adding that the U.S. would intensify its efforts to clear mines that have helped choke off global shipping.
- Despite the mounting global economic consequences, Trump said there is “no time pressure” in talks with Iran and “no time frame” on ending the war after he extended the ceasefire.
- The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by three weeks, Trump announced on Truth Social. Shortly before Trump's post, Hezbollah announced they had launched rockets at northern Israel that the Israel Defense Forces said they had intercepted.
- Iran’s forensics chief said nearly 3,400 people had been killed in the country since U.S.-Israeli strikes began Feb. 28. More than 2,200 people have been killed in Lebanon, 32 have been killed in Gulf states, and 23 have died in Israel. Thirteen U.S. service members have been killed, and two more died of noncombat causes.
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Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz in a video statement said Israel is “prepared to renew the war against Iran,” but the nation is waiting "for the green light from the U.S."“The Israeli army is prepared for defense and attack, and the targets are marked,” he said.He said Israel's goal is "to complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty" and "the successors of the leadership of the Iranian terrorist regime."He went on to say Israel wants to return "Iran to the dark and stone ages" by "blowing up" energy and electricity facilities, and crush the national economic infrastructure.
Trump Shares Post Calling for the Killing of Iranian Leaders Who Won't Accept US Demands - President Trump on Thursday shared a post calling for the killing of Iranian leaders who won’t accept US demands, ramping up his threats against the country amid a very fragile ceasefire.The post Trump amplified was written by Marc Thiessen, who served as a speechwriter for the George W. Bush administration. “If there are two factions in Iran, one that wants a deal and one that doesn’t, let’s kill the ones who don’t want a deal,” Thiessen said in a post on X where he was quoting himself from an appearance on Fox News. Thiessen also made the case to kill Iranian leaders in an op-ed published by The Washington Post on Wednesday titled “Trump Doesn’t Need a Deal to Get What He Wants From Iran,” which President Trump also shared on his Truth Social account. In the piece, Thiessen argued that Trump should restart the bombing campaign against Iran. “Right now, the remnants of the Iranian regime are under the misimpression that Trump wants a deal more than they do,” he wrote.“Trump needs to disabuse them of that notion. He has reportedly told Iran that it has three to five days to make a serious counteroffer. If it fails to do so, he should resume combat operations — starting with strikes targeting Iran’s recalcitrant leaders. If the Iranian regime is really ‘fractured’ between a faction that wants a deal and a faction that does not, there is a simple solution: Kill the faction that does not,” Thiessen said.Thiessen said the US should maintain the blockade and claimed the US military could open the Strait of Hormuz by force and that it just needed 14 more days to “finish the job” against Iran.The Trump administration has pushed the narrative that Iran’s military has essentially been obliterated, but Iran was able to continue missile and drone attacks throughout the entire war, and according to US officials speaking to The New York Times, US intelligence assesses that Tehran likely has access to the majority of its missiles and launchers.
Katz: Israel Waiting for US 'Green Light' To Attack Iran, Plunge Country Into the 'Stone Age' - Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Thursday that Israel was waiting for a “green light” from the US to break the ceasefire and renew attacks on Iran to plunge the country into the “stone age,” and finish off the Khamenei family, a sign that the truce is on the brink of collapse.“Israel is prepared to renew the war against Iran. The IDF is ready in defense and offense, and the targets are marked,” Katz said, according to The Times of Israel. Katz said Israel was “awaiting a green light from the United States, first and foremost to complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty, the initiator of the extermination plan against Israel, and the successors of the successors of the leadership of the Iranian terror regime, and in addition to return Iran to the age of darkness and stone by blowing up central energy and electricity facilities and crushing national economic infrastructure.”He added that the renewed bombing campaign “will be different and deadly and will add devastating blows in the most painful places, following the enormous blows the Iranian terror regime has already suffered so far, that will shake and collapse its foundations.” The threat from Katz comes on the same day that President Trump amplified calls to kill Iranian leaders who won’t accept US demands for a deal. Katz’s rhetoric also echoes President Trump, who has previously threatened to send Iran back to the “stone age” by destroying all of its power plants.Trump has also threatened to unleash “hell” on Iran, “blow up” the entire country, and at one point said an “entire civilization would die” if he escalated his bombing campaign.
US Forces Board Another Iran-Linked Tanker in the Indian Ocean - The Pentagon said on Thursday that US forces boarded another tanker in the Indian Ocean that it said was carrying Iranian oil, as the US continues to enforce a blockade against Iran.“Overnight, US forces carried out a maritime interdiction and right-of-visit boarding of the sanctioned stateless vessel M/T Majestic X transporting oil from Iran, in the Indian Ocean,” the US War Department said in a post on X that included a video of US forces boarding the vessel. Video of the boarding released by the War Department. The incident marks the second tanker that the US has boarded in the Indian Ocean this week and the third ship that was seized by US forces since the US began enforcing the current blockade on Iranian ports, which Iranian officials say must be lifted in order to hold peace talks. On Wednesday, Iran’s IRGC seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz.Despite the US enforcement of the blockade, many Iranian ships have been getting through, according to ship-tracking data. The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that at least 34 ships with links to Iran have made it through the US blockade, including 19 tankers that exited the Persian Gulf and 15 that entered the Gulf from the Arabian Sea.Also on Thursday, President Trump said that he ordered the US Navy to “shoot and kill” any Iranian ship laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, though it’s unclear if mines are being put in the waterway since Iran has been enforcing its control over the strait with drones.“I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.“There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine “sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your attention to this matter,” he added.
CENTCOM Says Third US Aircraft Carrier Has Arrived in the Middle East as Trump Warns Iran the 'Clock is Ticking' - US Central Command said on Thursday that the USS George H. W. Bush has arrived in its area of responsibility in the Middle East, making it the third US aircraft carrier in the region amid growing signs that the very fragile US-Iran ceasefire may collapse. “Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) sails in the Indian Ocean in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, April 23,” CENTCOM said in a post on X. Notably, the Bush traveled to the region by sailing south of Africa, avoiding the Red Sea, signaling the US is concerned the Houthis in Yemen could close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, though the aircraft carrier USS Gerald Ford is currently operating in the Red Sea. The other aircraft carrier in the region, the USS Abraham Lincoln, has been operating in the Arabian Sea, from where US warships are enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports.As CENTCOM announced the arrival of the Bush, President Trump issued a post on Truth Social where he warned Iran that the “clock is ticking” and insisted that time was on his side. “Iran’s Navy is lying at the bottom of the Sea, their Air Force is demolished, their Anti Aircraft and Radar Weaponry is gone, their leaders are no longer with us, the Blockade is airtight and strong and, from there, it only gets worse — Time is not on their side!” the president wrote.
Trump scraps latest peace talks after Iranian officials depart Pakistan - President Trump announced on Saturday that he canceled U.S. officials’ planned travel to Pakistan for another round of negotiations with Iran. Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner were set to travel to Islamabad on Saturday to take part in these talks, but the president said in a Truth Social post on Saturday afternoon that he called off the trip. Iranian officials had declined to meet directly. “I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going is Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians,” Trump wrote.“Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their ‘leadership,'” he continued. “Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!”Earlier on Saturday, an Iranian delegation met with Pakistani mediators amid ongoing negotiations with the U.S. to reach a peace agreement. The two sides are currently engaged in a ceasefire, after President Trump announced an extension to a temporary halt in fighting earlier this week.
How long can Iran survive the US’s Hormuz blockade? | Al Jazeera -- United States President Donald Trump has claimed Iran is “collapsing financially” and said the country is losing millions of dollars a day due to Washington’s naval blockade of Iranian ports.In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday night, Trump wrote: “Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately – Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!” The US blockade of Iranian ports began at 14:00 GMT on April 13. Since then, the US has fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, and redirected ships in the open seas carrying cargo to or from Iran. Iran’s armed forces have called this “an illegal act” that “amounts to piracy”.In response to the US naval blockade, Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz to all foreign shipping and has captured several foreign-flagged ships. Previously, it had allowed some ships deemed “friendly” to Iran to pass.On April 19, Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref said the “security of the Strait of Hormuz is not free”.“One cannot restrict Iran’s oil exports while expecting free security for others,” he wrote in a post on X.“The choice is clear: either a free oil market for all, or the risk of significant costs for everyone,” he added. “Stability in global fuel prices depends on a guaranteed and lasting end to the economic and military pressure against Iran and its allies.”In a statement on social media on Thursday, Iran’s parliamentary speaker and lead negotiator in the ceasefire talks, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said a full ceasefire could only work if the US naval blockade is lifted. Analysts say the blockade is hurting Iran but believe the country has the economic and political will to sustain it. Iran exports oil, gas and other goods including petrochemicals, plastics and agricultural products by sea. Analysts say the US naval blockade of its ports, including in the Strait of Hormuz, could therefore affect this trade.Soon after the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, authorities in Tehran implemented the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the only waterway out of the Gulf, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies were shipped from Gulf producers in peacetime.The near-shutdown of the vital chokepoint sent global oil and gas prices soaring, and since then, Iran has controlled the strait. However, it has continued to export its own energy products through the waterway.Iran’s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz account for about 80 percent of its total oil exports. According to Kpler, a trade intelligence firm, Iran exported 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March and has shipped 1.71 million bpd so far in April, compared with an average of 1.68 million bpd in 2025. From March 15 to April 14, it exported 55.22 million barrels of oil. The price per barrel of Iranian oil – across its three major variants, known as Iranian light, Iranian heavy and Forozan blend – has not fallen below $90 per barrel over the past month. On many days, the price has surpassed $100 a barrel. Even at the conservative estimate of $90 a barrel, Iran has earned at least $4.97bn over the past month from its ongoing oil exports.By contrast, in early February before the war started, Iran was earning about $115m a day from its crude oil exports, or $3.45bn in a month.Simply put, Iran has earned 40 percent more from oil exports in the past month than it did before the war.Stopping this is a key motivation behind the US naval blockade of Iranian ports.“Iran has some buffer in the form of crude oil reserves in floating tanks – basically parked tankers – which was estimated at about 127 million barrels in February. But that doesn’t mean that the blockade wouldn’t hurt Iran,” he said. In an interview with Al Jazeera, Schneider told Al Jazeera that Iran, however, seems to be “playing the longer game” and has anticipated and prepared for this sort of conflict to some degree. “The naval blockade has added economic strain, as several civilian ships have been captured in international waters. But it remains unclear how tight the blockade is, how many ships manage to pass given the considerable amount of floating Iranian oil, and how long Trump can maintain the blockade,” he said.Schneider noted that Trump will face a legislative challenge by May 1, when the 60 days he can maintain a foreign offensive without congressional approval come to an end. Dire conditions have been reported on the ships that are upholding the blockade, he said, and it remains to be seen how China will react to the continuing seizure of ships that carry any of its cargo.“China has already said it sees the blockade of Chinese trade with Iran as unacceptable. Further, the closure of Hormuz by Iran in retaliation is hurting, if not the US itself that much, American allies in the region and globally, raising the pressure on Trump,” he said. “If we can glean anything from the behaviour of the two sides, it is Iran that is signaling patience and Trump showing impatience,” he added.
Iran says it is prepared for 2026 World Cup participation in the US -- However, it was unclear whether it would ultimately take part.“The Ministry of Youth and Sports made an announcement about the full preparedness of our national soccer team for presence in the 2026 World Cup in the U.S., by the order of the minister,” Iranian government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohejerani told Iran’s state TV on Wednesday. “They informed that the necessary arrangements that these dear ones need for the team’s proud and successful participation, [have been made],” Mohejerani added. The tournament is scheduled to be held in the United States, Canada and Mexico this summer.
‘Near-Term Risk’ Warned: US Missile Stockpiles Depleted after Iran War – CNN - The US military has significantly depleted its stockpile of key munitions during the war with Iran, creating what experts describe as a “near-term risk” in the event of another conflict, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing defense analysts and sources familiar with internal Pentagon assessments. Over seven weeks of war, the US expended at least 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles, at least half of its THAAD interceptors, and nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense missiles, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), figures that closely align with classified Pentagon data. Additional systems were also heavily used, including approximately 30% of Tomahawk missiles and more than 20% of long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, as well as around 20% of SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors. According to Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and one of the report’s authors, “the high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific”. He reportedly added that “it will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be.” While the US retains enough munitions to continue operations in the near term, the report warns that current stockpiles are “no longer sufficient to confront a near-peer adversary, like China,” and may take years to return to pre-war levels. The findings stand in contrast to public statements by US President Donald Trump, who has downplayed concerns over weapons shortages. “We’re asking for a lot of reasons, beyond even what we’re talking about in Iran,” Trump said, referring to a request for additional Pentagon funding. “Munitions in particular, at the high end we have a lot, but we’re preserving it.” “It’s a small price to pay to make sure that we stay tippy top,” he added. However, Pentagon officials had already warned before the war that a prolonged conflict could strain US stockpiles, particularly those supporting multiple theaters, including Ukraine and Israel. Concerns have also been raised in Congress. Democratic Senator Mark Kelly warned that Iran’s capabilities could turn the situation into “a math problem,” asking: “How can we resupply air defense munitions? Where are they going to come from?” Despite new contracts aimed at increasing production, experts note that replacement timelines remain slow, with key systems expected to take three to five years to replenish, leaving the US facing a prolonged period of reduced readiness.
US May Run Out of Missiles If Another War Breaks Out: Report - – The US military has “significantly depleted” its stockpile of key missiles during the war against Iran and could face shortages in a future conflict, CNN reported Tuesday. Over seven weeks of war, the US military has used roughly 45% of its Precision Strike Missiles, at least half of its THAAD interceptors, and nearly 50% of its Patriot air defense missiles, according to a new analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Anadolu agency reported. These figures closely match classified Pentagon estimates, the report said. The US military has also used roughly 30% of its Tomahawk missiles, over 20% of its long-range Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, and about 20% of its SM-3 and SM-6 missiles, the report said. Although the Pentagon signed contracts earlier this year to boost missile production, replenishing these systems will still take three to five years, even with increased capacity. Stockpiles of key weapons are now insufficient for a conflict with a near-peer adversary like China, and rebuilding them to pre-war levels could take years, the report noted. “The high munitions expenditures have created a window of increased vulnerability in the western Pacific,” Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps Colonel and one of the authors of the CSIS report, told CNN. “It will take one to four years to replenish these inventories and several years after that to expand them to where they need to be,” he said. In a statement to CNN, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said that the military “has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.” “Since President (Donald) Trump took office, we have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the US military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests,” he said.
US Estimates Iran Has 70% of Pre-War Missile Stockpile, 60% of Launchers - -- Despite claims that the US has significantly degraded Iran’s ballistic missile program, US intelligence estimates that Iran has access to the vast majority of its missiles and launchers.Multiple US officials, citing intelligence and military estimates, told The New York Times that Iran has used the ceasefire to dig out its underground military sites that were blocked by rubble. The US believes that Iran now has access to 70% of its missiles, 60% of its launchers, and 40% of its drones.The estimates conflict with the narrative coming out of the White House. Earlier this month, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth claimed that Tehran’s missile program had been “functionally destroyed.”While Iran has most of its missiles available after nearly two months of war, the US has strained its supply of offensive missiles and interceptors. After just two weeks of fighting, the US had used nearly half of its ATACMS and 40% of its THAAD interceptors.The Pentagon is also facing shortages of Tomahawk missiles, JASSM, SM-3 missiles, and Patriot interceptors. At current production rates, it will take years to refill the American arms stockpiles.
Democrats poised to force repeated Iran war powers votes in House-- House Democrats are ready to escalate their effort to end the Iran war. Since the strikes began on Feb. 28, the lower chamber has voted only twice on war power resolutions, which would require President Trump to terminate the military campaign against Tehran unless Congress explicitly approves it. That pace is about to change dramatically. Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) is weighing plans to force a vote on his war powers resolution as soon as next week. And a handful of liberal Democrats are poised to follow suit, introducing similar but separate resolutions this week that they intend to bring to the floor in rapid-fire succession in May and beyond. Whether they have enough GOP support to pass any of the measures remains uncertain after the first two attempts failed. But short of passage, the Democrats’ aim is to force a series of lengthy floor debates on the Iran conflict, which is unpopular with voters nationally, and to put Republican lawmakers on the record when it comes to asserting Congress’s authority to declare war. “This is one of the few ways that we can force some debate and accountability,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.). With that in mind, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) unveiled a new war powers resolution on Tuesday. Huffman followed with one of his own on Wednesday. And Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) followed again on Thursday with a third proposal with identical intent. “We want a number of these, with the Progressive Caucus, so that we can call for a vote over and over,” Khanna said. The strategy, being led by the Congressional Progressive Caucus (CPC), is designed to shine a light on an unpopular war while intensifying the pressure on House Republicans — particularly those facing tough reelection contests — to cross the aisle and back the concept. Repetition, they believe, will help to build that support. “This should not be a one and done,” Huffman said. “The war is ongoing. Trump has no way out. He’s humiliating us on a daily basis on the world stage, putting us at great risk, so we’ve got to keep this going,” he continued. “That’s why we have to keep putting them in the queue, so that they ripen periodically.”
Pete Hegseth pressed by Senate Democrats over cuts to offices that limit risk to civilian casualties A group of Senate Democrats led by Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) are pressing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about cuts to offices that limit risk to civilian casualties and their impact during the U.S.’s recent strikes against Iran. The 11 senators asked Hegseth about the execution of the military strikes inside Iran and what steps and precautions the Pentagon is taking to prevent and respond to civilian harm from the U.S. and its allies. The seven-page letter, which was sent to the Pentagon on Sunday, referenced four incidents where the U.S. military was or may have been responsible for civilian harm inside Iran, including a Tomahawk missile strike on a girls elementary school in Minab where 175 children and teachers were killed, a ballistic missile strike on an elementary school and sports hall in Lamerd where at least 21 people were killed and an attack on a major highway bridge near Tehran where a minimum of eight people were killed. “We are concerned that these were all preventable tragedies. The high human toll of this war reflects the administration’s broader disregard for the strategic, legal, and moral imperative to minimize civilian harm,” the senators wrote in the letter. The lawmakers mentioned the cuts at the Pentagon’s Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response office and the department’s Civilian Protection Center of Excellence, moves that were made over objections of senior military officials. Since the U.S. began its strike inside Iran in late February, the hits on civilian infrastructure have led to over 1,700 civilian deaths, they said. “This is a concerning pattern and raises questions about whether the administration is upholding international law and the laws of war,” the senators wrote. When reached for comment, the Pentagon told The Hill that, as with all “congressional correspondences, the Department will respond directly to the authors.” Democrats said Hegseth’s “attempts to gut DoD’s civilian harm institutions contradicts more than a decade of bipartisan consensus and DoD-led reforms, initiated during the first Trump administration, to systematically prevent, and address civilian harm” in the Pentagon’s operations. “This included unifying a civilian harm reporting process that was fragmented across the military services and developing a set of standard assessment procedures to analyze instances of civilian harm caused by U.S. forces,” they wrote in the letter. The senators asked Hegseth more than a dozen questions, including how many civilians were killed since the strikes against Iran on Feb. 28 and how many of them were due to U.S. operations, if the U.S. military used cluster bombs to disperse mines and the status of the Pentagon’s investigation into the airstrike on Minab. The lawmakers said the Pentagon should provide answers by May 4. “The importance of protecting civilian life to the greatest extent possible is central to effective military operations and differentiates the United States from our adversaries,” the senators said.
Hegseth removes flu vaccination requirement for US troops --Today, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth posted a video on social media announcing that, effective immediately, US military troops will no longer be required to receive annual flu shots.“The notion that a flu vaccine must be mandatory for every service member, everywhere, in every circumstance, at all times, is just overly broad and not rational,” Hegseth said. “Our new policy is simple: If you, an American warrior entrusted to defend this nation, believe that the flu vaccine is in your best interest, then you are free to take it; you should. But we will not force you.”Hegseth said vaccine requirements deny military members medical autonomy, and removing mandates restores freedom to the military. In the video, Hegseth called mandatory COVID-19 vaccination “an era of betrayal” from the “disastrous Biden era” that’s now over. COVID-19 vaccines were required for service members from August 24, 2021, to January 10, 2023. According to the Department of Defense, more than 8,000 service members were involuntarily discharged from the military for refusing that vaccine.It’s unclear why Hegseth made this announcement today, as flu season is winding down, and Hegseth’s focus has been on the ongoing conflict in Iran.Public health officials reacted to today’s decision negatively. “The policy ignores warnings that more flu illness will mean more missed duty days, more hospitalizations and more preventable readiness losses,” said Richard Riccardi, PhD, of the George Washington University Center for Health Policy and Media Engagement, in a university press release. “Troops live and work in close quarters, where influenza can spread quickly and sideline otherwise healthy service member.”
Trump invokes war powers to juice fossil energy, grid - President Donald Trump invoked the Cold War-era Defense Production Act on Monday to shore up federal funding for a host of energy projects — involving oil, gas, coal and the grid — as the White House moved to buffer climbing electricity and fuel costs. The president signed a series of determinations under Section 3 of the 1950 law, which gives presidents sweeping emergency authorities to control domestic sectors. The orders target the power grid, natural gas, LNG, the coal sector, and domestic petroleum production, refining and capacity logistics.. A White House official said the determinations are necessary for the Department of Energy to deploy funding that was secured in Republicans’ 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act under Title III of the Defense Production Act. The determinations will “strengthen our grid infrastructure and unleash reliable, affordable, secure energy,” White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said. The memos allow Trump to tap billions of dollars set aside under the Defense Production Act, a law that both Republican and Democratic administrations have invoked to control domestic sectors. President Joe Biden invoked the law to bolster the production of clean energy, and Trump last year issued a waiver allowing it to expand the use of the law to boost U.S. production of critical minerals and weapons. The law empowers the president to allocate materials, services and facilities for national defense purposes, or to offer loans or loan guarantees to companies, subject to an appropriation by Congress, according to the Council on Foreign Relations. An administrator can also make purchases or purchase commitments and install equipment in government or private factories. The Trump administration likely wants to show it is addressing climbing energy prices and reliability issues and sees the Defense Production Act as a critical lever it can use to unleash federal funding, said an energy industry official granted anonymity to speak freely. The administration is also using the Iran war as a way to address concerns about reliability and affordability as electricity prices climb amid a national AI data center build-out, the official said. “I truly believe this is a ‘don’t let a good crisis go to waste,’” the energy industry official said. The determinations could lead to additional construction of pipelines, possible acceleration of LNG exports and more oil and gas procurement. “On the coal side, what we’ve seen from the Energy Department is that they want to invest in coal plants, improve efficiency and add capacity,” said the official. The determinations build on Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency in January 2025— a move that’s been highly contested and drawn legal threats — and allow the White House to move forward with financial support for its purchases. The orders cover a swath of equipment and industry processes across the oil, gas, coal and grid sectors. In a determination focused on the grid, Trump declared, “America’s aging and constrained electric grid infrastructure poses an increasing threat to national defense.” He said the grid order was aimed at expanding the domestic manufacturing and deployment of grid infrastructure. The U.S. faces a shortage of transformers and other equipment needed to expand transmission for burgeoning electricity demand. The memo covers transformers, high-voltage transmission components, advanced conductors, power electronics, substations and grid-supporting manufacturing equipment. The natural gas memo addresses gathering and transmission pipelines, compression, processing plants, underground storage, LNG liquefaction, storage and marine load, export facilities, and critical distribution infrastructure. And a separate petroleum memo covers “exploration and production, gathering and transmission pipelines, storage, and marine terminals.” In the memo focused on coal, Trump declares that myriad aspects of the sector — from supply chains and baseload power to mining and rail and barge logistics — are “industrial resources, materials, or critical technology items essential to the national defense.” ClearView Energy Partners said in a client note Monday that it remains unclear how the administration plans to direct spending or whether funding activities such as engineering and permitting will prove sufficient to advance large-scale infrastructure projects. “In theory, purchases, commitments and support that provide capital to facilities which cannot access it otherwise, or cannot do so affordably, could change outcomes,” the energy research firm said. The timing may be a result of concerns about energy affordability more than the Iran war, ClearView said. “National leaders generally face pressure to demonstrate responsiveness to rising prices, and [the] action presents an avenue to that end,” it said. Some environmentalist and public interest groups called the orders a “wish list” for fossil fuels. “President Trump is abusing emergency authorities and wasting taxpayer resources through unprecedented abuse of the Defense Production Act to promote his politically favored fossil fuel projects at the expense of energy affordability and common sense,” said Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s energy program.
Pentagon Has Approached US Automakers About Helping Manufacture Weapons - - Two major US car makers have been approached by the Pentagon about the possibility of helping the US government manufacture military equipment, as the Trump administration seeks a significant boost in arms production. The discussions were first reported by The Wall Street Journal last week, which said that the CEOs of General Motors and Ford Motor Company were both approached separately by US War Department officials.A source told the Detroit Free Press that some of the conversations happened as early as last year. US military stockpiles have been significantly depleted by the war in Ukraine and the wars in the Middle East, including the 12-Day US-Israeli war against Iran that took place last year and this year’s war against the Islamic Republic. The US military has been using air defense interceptors and other munitions in the Middle East at a much faster rate than they can be produced, even with plans to significantly ramp up production.For example, in less than two weeks of war with Iran, the US and its allies in the region used more than 1,000 PAC-3 interceptors, which are fired by the Patriot air defense systems. Lockheed Martin currently produces 600 PAC-3s each year and has said it wants to increase annual production to 2,000, but it will take several years to reach that goal.The development is a sign that the Trump administration is preparing for global conflict, as Ford, GM, and other US car makers helped manufacture military equipment during World War II. President Trump has also requested a $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027, a nearly 50% increase from this year, with some of the additional funds earmarked for increasing weapons production.
Trump 'locked out' of Iran Situation Room meeting after he 'screamed at aides for hours' - Donald Trump was barred from the Situation Room by military advisors during a critical Iran rescue operation, according to reports. The US President was reportedly shut out of discussions amid concerns about his furious temperament. Trump, who made a disturbing sex comment on stage that silenced an alarmed audience, was denied access to the command center while a dangerous extraction mission was underway to recover a downed American pilot from Iran.
Top administration officials believed his volatility could compromise the operation. Following the downing of a US aircraft by Iranian forces earlier this month, Trump allegedly spent hours yelling at staff in the West Wing after being haunted by memories of the 1979 Iranian hostage crisis. It comes after Melania Trump was left humiliated by a screaming kid's 3-word comment as he pointed at her. "If you look at what happened with Jimmy Carter... it cost them the election," Trump reportedly said in March, sources with knowledge of the situation told The Wall Street Journal. "What a mess."The incident took place on April 3, when an F-15 fighter jet was brought down over Iran, triggering the dangerous mission. While one crew member was quickly retrieved, the second remained stranded behind enemy lines for over 24 hours before being evacuated.After learning that two airmen were unaccounted for, "Trump screamed at aides for hours," the WSJ reported. The president's top advisors and administration officials, including Vice President JD Vance and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, joined Situation Room briefings over the following 24 hours to monitor developments. A senior administration official confirmed that while Trump wasn't present in the meeting, he received updates "at meaningful moments" via telephone. "Aides kept the president out of the room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn't be helpful," the official told the outlet.White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt added that Trump had "remained a steady leader our country needs". She said: "President Trump campaigned proudly on his promise to deny the Iranian regime the ability to develop a nuclear weapon, which is what this noble operation accomplishes." After a desperate bid to save the second airman, the president received word on the evening of April 4 that he had been successfully extracted by US forces. During the rescue operation, a senior administration official revealed the mission succeeded thanks to crucial intelligence from the CIA, which alerted both the Pentagon and the White House to the airman's whereabouts.
Dozens of veterans arrested at Capitol during protest against Iran war Dozens of veterans and military family members protesting the Iran war were arrested by U.S. Capitol Police on Monday after they occupied the Cannon House Office Building in Washington, D.C. At least 62 people were arrested during the demonstration, which was organized by several veterans groups including About Face, the Center on Conscience and War (CCW), Veterans For Peace, Common Defense, the Fayetteville Resistance Coalition, Military Families Speak Out and 50501 Veterans. The protesters stood in the middle of the Cannon rotunda holding red tulips — meant to honor Iranians killed by U.S. strikes — and unveiling banners that said “End the War on Iran.” They also conducted a flag-folding ceremony meant to symbolize the 13 U.S. troops who have died so far in the war, chanting anti-war slogans before they were zip-tied by police and led away, videos posted to social media show. In a statement, CCW said the protesters were demanding House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) meet with them to accept the folded flag and pledge to not continue to fund the war, which began on Feb. 28. U.S. Capitol Police didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment as to the exact number of those arrested. Among those arrested was CCW Executive Director Mike Prysner, a veteran of the Iraq War, who called the conflict “already deeply unpopular” and “a crisis for the Trump administration.” “The war I was sent to senselessly claimed the lives of thousands of Americans and a million Iraqis,” Prysner said in a statement ahead of his arrest. “Like the other veterans here with me today, I have spent the last two decades wishing I could turn back the hands of time and refuse to go. Service members have that chance right now.” He also pressed that conscientious objection is service members’ legal right, “and we have professional counselors who will fight to ensure you are approved and kept from deployment.” A two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran is due to expire on Wednesday, with President Trump rejecting an extension and calling for Iran to sign a deal with Washington that would block Tehran’s ability to have a nuclear weapon. Trump also renewed threats to Iran should its officials not sign a deal, saying over the weekend that “the whole country is going to get blown up.” High-stakes talks between the U.S. and Iran are tentatively set for Wednesday in Islamabad, but regime officials have not yet publicly committed to appearing.
Navy Secretary John Phelan Abruptly Departs Trump Admin With No Explanation, "Effective Immediately" - In a terse, one-paragraph statement released this afternoon, the Pentagon announced the immediate departure of Secretary of the Navy John C. Phelan, effective immediately. Undersecretary of the Navy Hung Cao has been elevated to Acting Secretary of the Navy. The announcement, issued by Chief Pentagon Spokesman Sean Parnell (Assistant to the Secretary of War for Public Affairs), offered no explanation for the move and simply thanked Phelan for his service “on behalf of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and the Deputy.” The timing of the firing could hardly be more dramatic. The United States remains engaged in active military operations against Iran following the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28 - a joint U.S.-Israel campaign targeting Iranian missile stockpiles, naval assets, and defense infrastructure. Although a ceasefire took effect around April 8, tensions remain extremely high. The U.S. Navy is currently enforcing a naval blockade of Iranian ports in and near the Strait of Hormuz, announced in mid-April after diplomatic talks collapsed. Recent incidents have included the seizure of Iranian-flagged vessels attempting to run the blockade, Iranian attacks on commercial shipping, and ongoing enforcement actions that continue to roil global oil markets and international shipping lanes. Phelan, a Palm Beach-based private equity investor, art collector, and major Trump donor who had poured millions into supporting the president, had no prior military or Navy experience when he was nominated in late 2024. Despite criticism over his lack of relevant background and potential conflicts of interest stemming from investments in defense contractors such as Dell and Palantir, he was confirmed by the Senate. During his roughly thirteen-month tenure (March 2025–April 22, 2026), Phelan focused heavily on bureaucratic efficiency: he axed Biden-era climate and DEI contracts and grants, reportedly saving approximately $300 million. He also pushed aggressive initiatives to accelerate shipbuilding, increase lethality across the fleet, and deepen partnerships with private-sector technology firms like Palantir. Just yesterday, Phelan had delivered remarks at the Navy’s annual conference. In February, reports surfaced that he had flown aboard Jeffrey Epstein’s plane in 2006—well before Epstein’s first arrest. Phelan maintained that he was invited by someone else, had no further contact with Epstein, and addressed the matter publicly at the time. Stepping into the role is Hung Cao, a Navy Captain with more than 25 years of service.
Navy Secretary John Phelan fired from administration amid Iran war - Navy Secretary John Phelan will leave the Trump administration “effective immediately,” the Pentagon announced Wednesday, marking the latest departure of a top defense official this year. “On behalf of the Secretary of War and Deputy Secretary of War, we are grateful to Secretary Phelan for his service to the Department and the United States Navy,” chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a statement posted on X. Parnell did not provide a reason for Phelan's exit, but said that the new acting Navy secretary will be Undersecretary Hung Cao. The abrupt firing by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth came after mounting tensions between Phelan and Hegseth and the Pentagon’s No. 2, Stephen Feinberg, according to multiple officials and others familiar with the relationship.There were a number of issues between the men, but the speed and approach Phelan was taking when it came to shipbuilding, a challenge in which President Trump has taken a personal interest, appears to have been the main reason for the firing, multiple people said. They clashed not only on shipbuilding, but also the Golden Fleet, Trump’s signature naval initiative, as well as the deployment of ships around the world. Feinberg had wrested some decision making on shipbuilding away from Phelan, according to two officials familiar with the matter. NBC News could not immediately reach Phelan for comment. The Pentagon responded to a request for comment by referring back to Parnell's statement. Phelan’s ouster comes amid the U.S. naval blockade of Iran. The American military has seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has called a violation of the precarious ceasefire between the two countries. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Fox News Wednesday that the seizure was not a violation because they were “international vessels,” and insisted the blockade has been “massively effective.” Firing the head of the Navy when the U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade caught members of Congress and Pentagon officials by surprise, according to multiple officials. By Wednesday evening, there were differing accounts from administration officials about Phelan’s firing. Three people familiar with the matter said Phelan did not know he was being fired until he saw the post on X from the Pentagon’s top spokesman announcing his departure. But a senior administration official said Phelan was notified ahead of time. “President Trump and Secretary Hegseth agreed new leadership at the Navy is needed,” according to the official. “Secretary Hegseth informed John Phelan of this news prior to it being made public.” Despite the dismissal, Phelan's tenure included moves favorable to the Trump administration. Last December, Phelan announced a new class of U.S. battleships, dubbing them “Trump-class battleships” while speaking at an event at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate. Earlier in the year, Phelan reversed the demotion of Texas Rep. Ronny Jackson, who had been stripped of his rank in 2022 after an investigation found he behaved inappropriately during his time as White House physician. Jackson, who served under Trump and former President Barack Obama, called the investigation’s findings politically motivated at the time.Lawmakers were surprised by the dismissal. Phelan had spent the greater part of the day on Capitol Hill discussing the nuts and bolts of shipbuilding, according to one official and one person familiar with the matter, and had no apparent idea he was about to be sacked.
Navy secretary’s removal points to Trump’s anxiety over shipbuilding -- The abrupt firing of Navy Secretary John Phelan, the latest head to roll in Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s turbulent Pentagon, points to President Trump’s anxiety over his ambitious and divisive vision for U.S. shipbuilding. Phelan, a billionaire and Trump fundraiser, was ousted on Wednesday, 13 months into the role, becoming the first service secretary to be removed in Trump’s second term. More than 30 senior military officers have been ousted under Hegseth. The Navy secretary’s removal, which caught many officials and lawmakers by surprise, comes as the president has aggressively pushed to supercharge U.S. shipbuilding, the commander in chief’s growing priority in efforts to counter China’s industrial and naval might. Retired Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery said Thursday that he was not “disappointed” with Phelan’s ouster, but he said his grumbles with the Navy secretary were over the Trump-class battleship. “He and the president cooked up an extremely bad idea, which is a very large target known as a battleship. That’s going to cost $24 to $26 billion minimum. For the first one, which is the cost of like, 12 destroyers,” Montgomery, a senior director for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), told reporters Thursday morning. In late December, Trump announced a new class of battleships as part of the U.S. Navy’s “Golden Fleet,” envisioned as an upgrade to the Navy’s Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.Trump aimed for the new class of battleships to be built by 2028, a timeline experts argued would be unlikely, saying the new vessels would take billions of dollars and far more time to complete. The Navy asked for a $377 billion budget for next year, including more than $65.8 billion for shipbuilding, to procure 18 warships, including destroyers and submarines. CNN reported Wednesday night that Phelan was asked to resign following a meeting between Hegseth and Trump over shipbuilding in which Trump became convinced Phelan needed to go, with Hegseth pledging to find someone who could move more quickly. A former U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Hill on Thursday that Phelan’s firing was related to shipbuilding efforts.Fox News reported on Thursday that tensions between Hegseth and Phelan had been building for months, in part over the Navy secretary’s execution of shipbuilding plans. Hegseth fired Phelan’s chief of staff, John Harrison, in October. Phelan’s acting successor will be Hung Cao, a retired U.S. Navy Captain and a U.S. Naval Academy graduate, who previously served as the under secretary of the Navy. Trump, when asked about Phelan’s removal on Thursday, praised him as a “very good” man, who had some issues, “not necessarily” with Hegseth, but others within the Pentagon. “He had some conflicts with some other people, mostly as to building and buying new ships. I’m very aggressive in the new shipbuilding, and somehow he just didn’t get along with them. He’s an excellent guy. I think he would have gotten along great with me. I didn’t really deal with him too much,” the president told reporters at the White House.
US Launches 56th Airstrike of the Year in Somalia - -- US Africa Command said in a press release on Saturday that its forces launched an airstrike in Somalia on April 17, as the pace of US bombings in the country has escalated amid the very fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran. AFRICOM said that the strike targeted the ISIS affiliate in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region and that it was launched in a remote mountain region about 30 miles southeast of the Gulf of Aden port city of Bosaso. AFRICOM offered no other details about the attack, as it hasn’t been sharing casualty estimates and assessments on potential civilian harm since last year. US-backed forces in Puntland also rarely share any details about the war, and only occasionally release photos that it claims show captured ISIS fighters, who are based in caves. “The army has captured one of the ISIS terrorists, and has also recovered livestock from the militants that they had taken from the local population,” The Puntland Counterterrorism Operations said in a post on Telegram on April 12 that included a photo of an alleged ISIS member. “The army’s operations to hunt down the militants are ongoing.”The US has also been launching airstrikes against al-Shabaab in southern Somalia, where major battles between US-backed government forces and al-Shabaab fighters have taken place in recent weeks. The US has been involved in Somalia for decades and has been fighting al-Shabaab since the George W. Bush administration backed an Ethiopian invasion in 2006 that ousted the Islamic Courts Union, a Muslim coalition that briefly held power in Mogadishu after taking the city from CIA-backed warlords. Al-Shabaab was the radical offshoot of the Islamic Courts Union, and its first recorded attack was a suicide bombing in 2007 that targeted Ethiopian troops occupying Mogadishu. It wasn’t until 2012 that the group pledged loyalty to al-Qaeda. The ISIS affiliate in Puntland started as an offshoot of al-Shabaab and first emerged in 2015.
US Launches Another Airstrike in Somalia as Trump Continues Ramped Up Bombing Campaign - US Africa Command said in a press release on Wednesday that its forces launched another airstrike in Somalia as the Trump administration continues an escalated bombing campaign in the country that receives virtually no media coverage in the US.AFRICOM said the strike was launched on April 21 and that it targeted al-Shabaab near a village about 55 miles southwest of the southern port city of Kismayo in Jubaland, Somalia’s southernmost region.As usual, AFRICOM offered no further details about the strikes, as it has stopped sharing information on casualties and assessments of potential civilian harm. The US-backed Somali government has been claiming major operations against al-Shabaab, but has not announced any operations on April 21.Through its propaganda channels, al-Shabaab claimed that its fighters engaged in significant battles against US-backed Somali government forces on Sunday, and the group released photos and videos purporting to show the combat and its aftermath. Al-Shabaab said the government forces were backed by “enemy warplanes,” but it’s unclear if the US launched any airstrikes that day, as AFRICOM hasn’t announced any. Besides bombing al-Shabaab in southern Somalia, the US has also been targeting an ISIS affiliate based in caves in a remote mountain region of Somalia’s northeastern Puntland region, where the US backs local forces. The Puntland Counterterrorism Operations claimed this week that it found the bodies of eight alleged ISIS fighters who were killed in operations that involved US airstrikes. The April 21 airstrike against al-Shabaab brings the total number of US airstrikes in Somalia this year to at least 58, a number based solely on what AFRICOM has announced. The rate of US airstrikes slowed somewhat during the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, but it has picked back up amid the very fragile ceasefire.
Trump Continues Yemen Drone War With Virtually No Media Attention - Since starting his second term in January 2025, President Trump has continued a drone war in Yemen that has gone unnoticed in the US, according to a report from the Yemen Data Project (YDP). From January 2025 to March 2026, the YDP found 21 reports of US drone strikes in Yemen through an investigation of open-source material. In some of the strikes, the victims were said to be members of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), or sometimes the slain were not identified. In at least one strike, which targeted an AQAP gathering in the Marib Governorate on December 8, 2025, a woman and a child were injured. The drone strikes against AQAP in central and eastern Yemen are separate from the bombing campaign the Trump administration conducted against the Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, who govern Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, and territory in northwestern Yemen, where most Yemenis live.Trump’s bombing campaign against the Houthis, dubbed “Operation Rough Rider,” was conducted from March 15, 2025, to May 6, 2025, and involved very heavy missile strikes that killed more than 250 civilians. The YDP noted the fact that the US military hasn’t taken credit for strikes against AQAP since 2020, despite the attacks continuing through the Biden administration, raising concerns about transparency. The report said that eight US drone strikes occurred during the final year of Biden’s presidency, and 16 were launched in the first year of Trump’s second term.During his first term, President Trump dramatically expanded US operations against AQAP in Yemen, starting with a botched raid in January 2017 that killed Nawar al-Awlaki, an eight-year-old girl, and an American citizen whose father, Anwar al-Awlaki, and brother, Abdulrahman al-Awlaki, were killed by US drone strikes under President Obama in 2011. The YDP pointed out that Trump’s escalations in Yemen in his first term received significant coverage, while his drone war in this term has received virtually no media attention.
US Boat Strike Kills Three in the Caribbean - US Southern Command said on Sunday that its forces blew up an alleged drug-running boat in the Caribbean Sea as the US bombing campaign targeting small vessels in the waters of Latin America continues. SOUTHCOM offered no evidence to back up its claim that the boat was carrying drugs, something the Pentagon has never done for any of the boats it has blown up. The command said the strike killed three people, whom it labeled “narco-terrorists,” a term employed by the Trump administration in an attempt to justify the extrajudicial executions at sea. ideo of the strike released by SOUTHCOM. According to a count from The Intercept, the latest strike brings the total number of boats that have been destroyed to 54, and the number of people killed to at least 181. All of the dead were civilians since they were operating civilian vessels, were not engaged in combat, and didn’t pose any threat to the US at the time of the strikes. Amid the very shaky ceasefire between the US and Iran, the US has dramatically ramped up its bombing campaign against small boats, blowing up five in the Eastern Pacific Ocean within five days from April 11 to April 15.The US has also increased its airstrikes in Somalia compared to its rate of strikes in the US-Israeli bombing campaign in Iran, according to press releases from US Africa Command. So far this year, the US has launched at least 56 airstrikes in Somalia, but the war gains virtually no coverage in the US media.
US and Philippines Launch Their 'Biggest Ever' Balikatan Drills With Large Japanese Contingent for First Time - The US and the Philippines on Monday launched what’s being billed as the “biggest ever” Balikatan Exercise, an annual military drill that, for the first time, includes a significant contingent of Japanese troops as Tokyo increases its military activity in the region, ramping up tensions with China. The drills will take place from April 20 to May 8 and will involve more than 17,000 troops, including about 1,400 Japanese military personnel. Exercises will include live-fire drills in the northern Philippines, facing Taiwan, and in Palawan, an island province facing the disputed South China Sea.The start of the drills comes amid a very fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran, which is due to expire on Wednesday if it’s not extended. While the US has committed more than 60,000 troops to the Middle East, the Trump administration continues to focus on building alliances in the Asia-Pacific as part of its strategy against China, including a new security deal with Indonesia.In response to the start of the Balikitan drills, the Chinese Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the US activity in the region. “The world has seen enough damage done by unilateralism and abuse of military might. What the Asia-Pacific needs most is peace and tranquility, and the last thing the region needs is division and confrontation as a result of the introduction of external forces,” said spokesman Guo Jiakun.“No military and security cooperation should be conducted at the expense of mutual understanding and trust as well as peace and stability in the region. Such cooperation should not target any third party or harm the interests of any third party. For countries that tie their own security to others, it is important to bear in mind that this may very well backfire,” Guo added.
US in Talks to Resettle 1,100 Afghans in Congo - The Trump administration is in talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo to resettle 1,100 Afghans who have been stranded in Qatar awaiting US visas, according to an advocacy organization that works on their behalf. The discussions underscore the legal hurdles facing Afghans who fled the Taliban after US immigrant visa processing for Afghan nationals was effectively halted, leaving them in limbo more than four years after the US withdrawal from Kabul. Shawn VanDiver, founder and president of #AfghanEvac, a coalition of veterans and advocacy groups, told Reuters that US officials had briefed him about the plan to resettle the Afghans in Congo, which he described as unacceptable, partly because of chronic insecurity in the central African country, Reuters reported. The Afghans are housed at Camp As Sayliyah, a former US Army base in Qatar, where they were transferred to complete immigrant visa processing for entry into the United States. Some are relatives of US citizens or worked for a US-funded organization during the 20-year war. But that processing ground to a halt after the Trump administration took office in January 2025. Last June, the Trump administration included Afghanistan on a list of 12 countries subject to a travel ban, with a narrow exemption for Special Immigrant Visas (SIV) for Afghans who served alongside troops and diplomats. In November, Washington stopped immigrant visa processing for all Afghan nationals following the deadly shooting of two US National Guard members by an Afghan former CIA-backed paramilitary unit member. A federal judge ruled in February that the ban on Afghan SIV visa processing was illegal, but processing is effectively at a standstill, according to VanDiver. #AfghanEvac said in a statement on Tuesday that the 1,100 Afghans had been vetted for resettlement.
Lutnick says Trump’s ‘Gold Card’ visa approved for 1 person so far - Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday said only one person had been approved for President Trump’s $1 million “Gold Card” visa that offers an expedited pathway to U.S. citizenship.“They have approved, recently, one person, and there are hundreds in the queue,” the Commerce secretary said during testimony before the House Appropriations Committee. “They wanted to make sure they did it perfectly,” he added.The recipient’s identity was not revealed, but Bloomberg reported that TP-Link Systems founder Jeffrey Chao applied for the card and was awaiting approval. The Commerce Department was investigating his company’s ties to China, per the outlet. “Gold Card” applicants are required to pay a $15,000 nonrefundable processing fee and subsequently donate a $1 million gift to the U.S. if approved for citizenship. An executive order establishing the visa program outlined two categories, which include EB-1 titles for applicants with “extraordinary ability” and EB-2 status for those with “exceptional ability,” according to Fortune. Two groups have filed a lawsuit over the measure.
GOP senators ratchet up pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson to end DHS shutdown - Republicans in the upper chamber are ramping up the pressure on Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) to swiftly approve a Senate-passed bill to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), arguing that tens of thousands of federal workers could miss paychecks next month if the House delays much longer. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) says Senate passage of a budget resolution early Thursday morning shows he has the votes to pass a budget reconciliation package next month to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol. He believes that should give the House the green light to approve the Senate-passed bill to fund the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), the Coast Guard and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Johnson, under pressure from Republicans in the hard-line conservative House Freedom Caucus and beyond, has said he won’t move the bipartisan DHS bill until after passage of the reconciliation package. But GOP senators fear that plan leaves a good chance that Secretary of Homeland Security Markwayne Mullin could run out of money to pay TSA agentsand other critical federal workers. “That’s certainly the hope and expectation,” Thune said when asked about the prospect of the House moving quickly on the Senate-passed Homeland Security funding bill now that the Senate has passed a budget resolution, taking a major step toward unlocking the special reconciliation process that will allow GOP senators to avoid a Democratic filibuster. “It seems like that should help answer the question they’ve had” about whether the Senate would be able to deliver a budget reconciliation bill to the House to fund ICE and Border Patrol through 2029, Thune said. “I’m hoping that now having produced a reconciliation bill they can perhaps get over that hurdle and fund the other agencies because they’re running out of money, and Markwayne’s made that very clear,” Thune said. The Senate GOP leader said the Department of Homeland Security doesn’t have enough money to keep paying federal workers for the amount of time it will take the Senate to pass the budget reconciliation bill. “From a timing standpoint, they run out of money I think before we’re going to be able to get the reconciliation bill across the floor. But I think having produced the budget resolution to me should serve as a signal to anybody over [in the House] that’s concerned about that, that we’re going to be following through with ensuring that the [ICE and Border Patrol] money for the future is available,” Thune said. DHS has been shut down for more than two months, but President Trump earlier this month ordered that essential workers be paid. Mullin warned Tuesday that the department has access to enough money to pay workers for only one more pay period.
Trump appointee raised alarm about FEMA’s ‘increased operational risk’ - A Trump administration official warned colleagues that the Federal Emergency Management Agency faces “increased risk” due to “workforce strain” and a growing number of disasters, according to internal documents reviewed by POLITICO’s E&E News. The series of memos — written in January and February by FEMA’s communications chief, a political appointee — appear to validate widespread concern about the ability of the nation’s disaster agency to help areas hit by storms, floods, wildfires and other disasters. President Donald Trump has assailed FEMA since taking office last year, cutting both agency staff and programs that have given states billions of dollars to protect against natural disasters. The administration has expressed concern only recently about FEMA’s ability to function, as Trump officials blame Democrats in Congress for a partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees FEMA. But FEMA Associate Administrator Victoria Barton was warning of risks as early as Jan. 21, weeks before the DHS shutdown. In a memo on that date, she privately urged DHS to let FEMA change several agency policies that “create reputational, fiscal and oversight risk for DHS.” Barton, who heads FEMA’s Office of External Affairs, said policy revisions could be done quickly and without action from Congress to strengthen FEMA for the upcoming hurricane season, which begins June 1. “FEMA risks entering hurricane season without the clarity and discipline required for effective response,” Barton wrote in a follow-up memo dated “February 2026.” Barton said her proposed administrative changes would improve FEMA staff assignments, increase consistency and reduce the “strain” on the fund that pays for emergency disaster response and long-term rebuilding. In the same month as Barton’s follow-up memo, DHS sharply restricted spending from its Disaster Relief Fund to conserve money for dangerous conditions as the fund dwindled. The memos reviewed by E&E News cover eight pages with the names of recipients redacted. Several memos address FEMA’s response to the massive winter storm that swept the nation in late January. Most focus on improving long-standing agency problems. FEMA said in a statement to E&E News that Barton’s memos “are pre-decisional and deliberate messages exchanged as part of ongoing internal discussions.” But neither the agency nor DHS answered a question about the department’s response to Barton. “They are not formal memos, emails, or official proposals, and do not represent any final recommendations or decisions from Associate Administrator Barton or FEMA leadership,” the FEMA statement added. Barton wrote the memos roughly a month after moving to FEMA from DHS, where she had been a counselor to then-Secretary Kristi Noem. Barton wrote all her memos before Trump ousted Noem and replaced her with Markwayne Mullin, who the Senate confirmed in March. “She was a trusted appointee for Noem,” said Michael Coen, who was FEMA’s chief of staff during the Biden and Obama administrations. Coen said Barton’s stature with Noem makes her warnings about FEMA more significant. Barton was a political appointee in the first Trump administration. “She’s not talking about perception risk. She’s talking about operational risk,” Coen said after E&E News showed him the memos. “A lot of us have been concerned about the operational risk recently.”
Trump Extends Jones Act Shipping Waiver Through August -The White House extended its Jones Act waiver by 90 days, keeping foreign-flagged tankers eligible to move crude, fuels and fertilizer between U.S. ports through mid-August.The waiver was on track to expire on May 17. The waiver still covers 659 product categories, preserving access to foreign shipping at a moment when U.S. coastal transport capacity is tight and roughly 13 million barrels per day of crude and products remain disrupted globally due to the Iran war.Notably, Gulf Coast crude will now clear faster by moving more easily to East Coast refiners.Cargoes are already moving under the waiver. Phillips 66 has already shipped Bakken crude from Beaumont to the 185,000-barrel-per-day Trainer refinery in Pennsylvania aboard a Malta-flagged tanker, becoming the first company to move domestic crude under the waiver. The extension gives refiners a wider booking window for July and August cargoes.The Jones Act normally requires U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged and U.S.-crewed ships for domestic waterborne trade. That sharply limits tanker availability for Gulf Coast crude and fuel shipments.The Trump Administration issued the original waiver in March, and has since paired that with fuel-spec waivers and sanctions relief of some Russian crude flows, all aimed at keeping physical barrels moving.“The Trump administration has taken several actions to mitigate short-term disruptions to the energy markets, and this extension will help ensure vital energy products, industrial materials and agricultural necessities are maintained,” White House Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said on Friday.There is a political fight around the waiver. There is also a shipping reality: the U.S. does not have enough Jones Act tonnage to absorb a supply shock of this scale.The extension runs into peak summer fuel demand, when refiners are positioning inventories and booking waterborne crude.So far, few domestic crude cargoes have moved under the waiver.
Hill Republicans not keen on gasoline tax holiday - Gasoline tax holidays are gaining steam across North America as prices at the pump linger near four-year highs — but Republicans in Congress are showing little interest in temporarily suspending the federal gas tax. Prices surged after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, pushing up inflation and raising concerns the higher costs could turn into an economic drag as the peak summer driving season approaches. That’s prompted some states like Georgia and Indiana to offer tax holidays, while Canada’s pause on collecting its 10-cent tax on gasoline and 4-cent tax on diesel starts Monday and runs through Sept. 7. Several Democrats have called for pausing the gas tax, a move that would potentially save Americans up to 18 cents at the pump per gallon, but key Republicans up on Capitol Hill have shrugged off the idea so far.
Democrats re-up more bills to reduce energy costs - --Senate Democrats led by Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are re-upping a pair of bills this morning aimed at tackling rising energy costs by boosting federal regulators’ authorities.The “Fair and Transparent Gas Prices Act” would provide the Federal Trade Commission with an additional $15 million a year to hire up to 50 additional investigators and enforcement personnel to up its oversight of price-gouging by oil and gas companies.The bill, which Cortez Masto is introducing with Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), would direct the FTC to conduct a biennial study on whether the industry is charging fair prices. Cortez Masto said in a statement that the bill addresses the “opportunity for corporate greed” created by the war in Iran. “We must ensure that Trump’s friends in the oil and gas industry aren’t taking advantage of the chaos to rake in record profits at the expense of hard-working American families,” she said.
Donald Trump says Chris Wright 'totally wrong' on gas prices not dropping to $3 until next year - President Trump told The Hill on Monday that he disagreed with Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s assessment that gas prices may not drop below $3 per gallon until next year. “No, I think he’s wrong on that. Totally wrong,” Trump said in a phone interview when asked about his Energy chief’s comments. When asked by The Hill when he believes gas prices will drop, Trump said “as soon as this ends,” referring to the Iran war. Wright told CNN on Sunday that gas prices might not drop below $3 until next year amid shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. “I don’t know. That could happen later this year. That might not happen until next year,” Wright said. “But prices have likely peaked and they will start going down,” the secretary added. “Certainly, with a resolution of this conflict, you will see prices go down. Prices across the board on energy prices will go down.” Wright’s comments were in stark contrast to comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week, in which he predicted gas prices could hit the $3 range this summer. The global oil industry has been rocked by Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with gas prices in the U.S. rising to more than $4 for the first time since 2022 in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to AAA, the average price of gas in the U.S. sat at $4 Monday morning. Oil prices surged following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil, was up to around $94 on Monday, while West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was at roughly $88 per barrel.
Enviros sue over Trump green light to Gulf oil drilling - Environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over the Interior Department’s approval of an ultra-deepwater oil drilling project in the Gulf of Mexico.The petition filed Monday in the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals targets BP’s first completely new oil field in the Gulf since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster and the groups say it endangers the health of Gulf residents, ecosystems, and the fishing and tourism industries.“The Trump administration has teed up the entire Gulf region for a Deepwater Horizon sequel with its approval of BP’s extremely risky ultra-deepwater drilling project,” said Earthjustice senior attorney Brettny Hardy. “The greenlighting of BP’s project sets a dangerously low bar for oil-and-gas companies that want to drill in our public waters. The Interior Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
CDC blocks publication of report showing COVID vaccine efficacy The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has canceled publication of a scientific report showing the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine, according to media reports. The Washington Post, which first reported the news, says the report, initially scheduled to be published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on March 19, showed the COVID-19 vaccine cut the likelihood of emergency department visits and hospitalizations in half this past winter. The report had cleared the agency’s scientific review process before being delayed by acting CDC Director Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, over concerns about the methodology. But the same methodology has long been used by the CDC to evaluate vaccine effectiveness for respiratory viruses and was used in a study on the flu vaccine published last month in MMWR. In response to a query from CIDRAP News, a CDC official did not address the blocked report specifically but said the agency has to apply the “highest standards of scientific rigor” to the information it publishes. “Responsible science requires careful review. Taking time to ensure analyses are methodologically sound and clearly communicated is always preferable to risking error,” the official said. A former CDC official said he wasn’t aware of a report that was already cleared and scheduled for publication in MMWR being blocked by leadership during his time at the agency. “Suppressing the standard of science on VE [vaccine efficacy] to wait for a perfect study in a system that cannot support it is not a hallmark of transparent scientific expertise,” Demetre Daskalakis, MD, MPH, the former director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in an email. The news comes at a time when the Trump administration has been seeking to downplay efforts by Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who oversees the CDC, to undo US vaccine policies ahead of the midterm elections. In May 2025, Kennedy announced that the COVID-19 vaccine, which he once called “the deadliest vaccine ever made,” would no longer be recommended for pregnant women and healthy children.
In hearings, RFK Jr claims no responsibility for measles spread - Today Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeared before two Senate committees and distanced himself from record-breaking measles outbreaks in the United States, despite his role as overseeing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), one of the many agencies in the HHS umbrella. His testimony capped off a busy week on Capitol Hill, where he made seven appearances. Kennedy was there to discuss the proposed 2027 HHS budget, but after failing to appear in front of lawmakers for many months, during which Kennedy made broad changes to national recommendations for childhood vaccines, appeared shirtless in promotional videos with Kid Rock, and withheld millions of Medicaid funds from “blue” states like Minnesota and California, Kennedy found himself facing questions from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. During his opening statements to both committees, Kennedy focused on nutrition, food dyes, and the chronic disease epidemic, Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) topics that are seen as less controversial than anti-vaccine rhetoric that could punish Republicans during upcoming midterm elections. But senators repeatedly pivoted to two issues Kennedy couldn’t shake: the punishing costs of prescription drugs, and the ongoing US measles epidemic. Throughout the Finance Committee meeting, Kennedy said he had nothing to do with large ongoing measles outbreaks across the country, and implied it was rising international rates of the virus seeding outbreaks in the United States. “I have not visited Mexico or Europe. I have nothing to do with the measles outbreak. A lot of nations have lost their elimination status; [the] outbreak has nothing to do with me,” Kennedy said. "The whole world had their worst measles year.” Kennedy went on to explain that most unvaccinated Americans who contracted measles last year were over the age of 5 years, meaning their parents decided to not vaccinate well before Kennedy assumed his role at HHS. But David L. Hill, MD, a spokesperson for the American Academy of Pediatrics, said the issue is nuanced. “When 95% of the population is vaccinated, sporadic cases from outside the country don’t spread as they are doing now, where rates in many communities have fallen below that level,” Hill told CIDRAP News. “So, anyone who is spreading misinformation about the safety or effectiveness or measles vaccine shares in the responsibility for these outbreaks, especially if they have the ear of the public.
COMMENTARY: RFK Jr’s mercurial congressional testimony again showcases ideology over vaccine science | CIDRAP - US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s testimony before Congress last week offered a revealing glimpse into how ideology has overtaken evidence at the nation’s top health agency. In a single exchange about mercury exposure, Kennedy tried to evade accountability for the Trump administration’s rollback of pollution limits that protect children’s neurologic development while reviving long-debunked fears about vaccine preservatives, exposing both the contradictions at the heart of federal vaccine policy and the uneasy fit between the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement and the administration’s broader environmental agenda. At the hearing, US Rep. Josh Harder, who represents a Stockton, Calif.-area district, reminded Kennedy, who was an environmental advocate before he became associated with anti-vaccine efforts, of his previous advocacy for limiting mercury emissions from power plants. He recalled that when the first Trump administration tried to roll back mercury runoff limits, Kennedy personally attended the hearing to express his opposition. Kennedy’s previous activism against mercury emissions was well-founded. Coal-fired power plants are a major, human-caused source of mercury emissions. Released mercury deposits into water and soil, where microbes convert part of it into methylmercury, the form that bioaccumulates in fish and is known to be neurotoxic, especially during fetal development. What, therefore, Harder asked, did Kennedy make of the Trump administration’s decision to restore older mercury pollution limits that let some coal plants emit substantially more methylmercury-forming pollution—up to about two-thirds more for plants powered by the lowest-grade coal? Though Kennedy bristled at the question, he didn’t defend the administration’s actions. The representative, he said, needed to ask the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). His HHS had nothing to do with it. The problem with Kennedy’s answer is that a major EPA rule affecting mercury emissions does not simply appear without interagency review, which the secretary must have known. Policies with significant public health implications typically move through a formal process that includes consultation across the federal government On December 23, 2025, EPA submitted a draft of the final action to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for interagency review under Executive Order 12866. That matters because the review is handled through OMB’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), where major rules are circulated across relevant federal agencies for comment. For Kennedy to suggest he was unaware is difficult to reconcile with how the federal government typically works, not to mention the fact that the administration’s plan to roll back the mercury emissions standards had been public since last spring. But the more troubling part of the exchange with Harder was not the dodge. It was Kennedy’s misleading pivot. The secretary tried to defend his environmentalist bona fides by citing HHS’s withholding of US funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, because some vaccines it supports still use thimerosal, a preservative containing ethylmercury, which prevents contamination in multidose vials. He framed this as a principled stand against mercury exposure. In truth, it was a case study in how ideology—not evidence—is driving federal health leadership. Thimerosal contains ethylmercury, not methylmercury. That distinction matters. Ethylmercury is processed and cleared from the body much faster and does not accumulate the same way. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has long explained this difference clearly, and the scientific evidence has been consistent for decades: Thimerosal is not linked to autism or other neurodevelopmental disorders. Kennedy has a history of conflating the two mercury-containing compounds.In 2005, he wrote “Deadly Immunity,” an article published in Rolling Stone and on Salon that argued thimerosal was linked to autism. Both publications later distanced themselves from the piece, because the data were inaccurate, selectively presented, or taken out of context. In 2014, he published a book advancing similar claims, which drew similarly sharp criticism from scientists and physicians for misstating evidence and exaggerating risk. The Institute of Medicine—now the National Academy of Medicine—reviewed more than 200 studies and found that the evidence favored rejection of a causal relationship between thimerosal-containing vaccines and autism. Large epidemiologic studies in the United States and internationally reached the same conclusion. When thimerosal was removed from nearly all routine childhood vaccines in the United States more than two decades ago—a precautionary step taken to maintain public confidence, not because of demonstrated harm—autism rates continued to rise, further undercutting claims of causation. And yet Kennedy is now conditioning global vaccine financing on a claim that has already been exhaustively tested and rejected.This matters because Gavi is one of the world’s most important vaccine delivery systems, helping protect millions of children from diseases like diphtheria, tetanus, and hepatitis B. Suspending support over a disproven fear about thimerosal does not protect children. It puts them at greater risk.At the same time, downplaying increased industrial mercury exposure while elevating long-debunked claims about vaccine preservatives sends a dangerous message: that public health decisions are no longer being made according to actual risk.
Trump administration fires National Science Board members -The Trump administration on Friday told several scientists on the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) board that they were terminated from their roles, The Washington Post reported. The White House Presidential Personnel Office’s message to members of the National Science Board thanked them for their service, according to screenshots shared with the outlet.“On behalf of President Donald J. Trump, I’m writing to inform you that your position as a member of the National Science Board is terminated, effective immediately,” the message seen by the Post reads. Board member Marvi Matos Rodriguez told the outlet that she was reviewing an 80-page report for her board work this week when she learned she was terminated. She started her role in 2022.“The idea of having six-year terms is you get to do something significant, impactful and go beyond administration, political administrations,” she told the outlet. The Hill has reached out to the National Science Foundation and the White House for comment.The Post did not determine how many board members were terminated, nor if they will be replaced.Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), the ranking member on the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, called the terminations “the latest stupid move made by a president who continues to harm science and American innovation.”“The NSB is apolitical,” she said in a statement released on Saturday. “It advises the president on the future of NSF. It unfortunately is no surprise a president who has attacked NSF from day one would seek to destroy the board that helps guide the Foundation. Will the president fill the NSB with MAGA loyalists who won’t stand up to him as he hands over our leadership in science to our adversaries? A real bozo the clown move.”
ACLU sues National Park Service over ‘obscene’ Trump protest signs -The American Civil Liberties Union sued the Trump administration Thursday after national park officials determined signs about the president displayed at a permitted protest on the National Mall contained “unprotected obscenity.” The National Park Service earlier this month informed Accountability Now USA, an unincorporated group of volunteers who oppose President Donald Trump, that two of its signs referencing allegations of sexual misconduct by the president, and related to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, must be removed. The organization interpreted the park service’s demand as a threat that its demonstration permit would be revoked if they did not comply, according to a court filing in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. “Just because a Trump appointee finds a message distasteful does not make it illegal,” said Laura Follansbee, a staff attorney at ACLU-D.C. in a statement. “The First Amendment protects everyone’s right to engage in political discussion, and government officials can’t stop speech simply because it criticizes President Trump.”
3 GOP senators break with leaders over addressing insurance companies’ denial of medical care - Three Republican senators broke with the rest of the Senate GOP conference Wednesday night to vote in support of an amendment sponsored by Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) to address insurance companies delaying or denying necessary medical care. Vulnerable Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) joined conservative Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) in voting with Democrats to support the amendment to create a point of order against a budget reconciliation bill that fails to address insurance companies’ delay or denial of medical care. Ossoff moved to waive the applicable sections of the 1974 Budget Act to strike down the point-of-order objection but it fell 11 votes short of success. He needed 60 votes to waive the budget rules. “Think of the retired Georgia teacher who had paid over $100,000 into a cancer policy only to be diagnosed with cancer and have her insurance claims denied,” Ossoff said on the Senate floor ahead of the vote. “Think of the Monroe County mother of three diagnosed with cancer who needed a liver transplant, was told she had six to 12 months to live and had to fight her insurance company because her claim was denied,” he said. Ossoff said his amendment would ensure that the budget reconciliation bill Republicans plan to advance to fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol would also prevent insurance companies from denying or delaying medically necessary health care. Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) raised a point-of-order objection to Ossoff’s amendment. “Adopting this amendment would jeopardize the privilege of the budget resolution and our ability to use reconciliation to reopen the Department of Homeland Security,” he said. Ossoff moved to waive the applicable sections of the 1974 Budget Act to strike down the point-of-order objection but it fell one vote short of success. Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Mark Warner (D-Va.) missed the votes Wednesday due to health and personal issues. Senate Republicans scheduled votes late into the night Wednesday on a budget resolution they hope to pass to lay the procedural groundwork for a budget reconciliation package that could pass the upper chamber with a simple-majority vote and avoid a Democratic filibuster. Republicans want to use the budget reconciliation vehicle to pass 3 1/2 years of funding for ICE and Border Patrol. GOP aides estimate that package, which is expected to reach the Senate floor next month, will cost between $70 billion and $80 billion.
Bipartisan senate group to introduce 'Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act' for SNAP users--A bipartisan group of Senators on Tuesday introduced the Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act to help Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients use their benefits to buy rotisserie chicken. The amendment would amend the 2008 Food and Nutrition Act by modifying the definition of food to add “hot rotisserie chicken,” according to a joint statement about the bill from Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) office. It would not increase funding or SNAP participant eligibility, or “allow all hot foods to be included for purchase.” Current legislation does not allow the purchase of hot prepared foods, only allowing cooled but cooked rotisserie chicken to be purchased. “America’s best (and delicious) affordability play is Costco’s $4.99 rotisserie chicken,” Fetterman said in the statement. “It’s one of my family’s favorites and I’m proud to join this bill with Senator Justice for all to try. SNAP funds would be well spent to feed our nation’s families who need it.” Sens. Jim Justice (R-W.Va.) introduced the bill, whereas Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) and Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) joined Fetterman in backing the amendment. “Allowing SNAP recipients to purchase hot rotisserie chicken is a simple, practical step to make the program work better for the people it serves,” Capito said in a similar statement. “For seniors, working families, and those without reliable access to cooking equipment, this is about convenience and dignity. With multiple states—including West Virginia—already requesting flexibility in this area, this bill brings SNAP in line with real-world needs while making smart, efficient use of taxpayer dollars.” Justice said allowing SNAP recipients to buy hot rotisserie chicken is “as basic as you can get to help busy parents or grandparents put something as simple as this on the table to feed their families.” “It’s plain common sense: a hot rotisserie chicken is a healthy, easy meal for busy families,” he wrote on the social platform X. “Folks on SNAP should be able to grab one on the go.”
Sen. Susan Collins, Dan Sullivan break with Senate GOP on SNAP amendment - Senate Republicans on Wednesday defeated an amendment sponsored by Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.) to create a reserve fund to lower grocery costs and reverse an estimated $187 billion in cuts to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program enacted by last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Two vulnerable Republican senators — Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Dan Sullivan (Alaska) — broke with their leaders and voted in support of the Democratic amendment to the GOP budget resolution. Luján offered a motion to waive the Budget Act with respect to his amendment to reverse last year’s cuts to the federal food assistance program. It failed by a vote of 47-50. “Instead of working to address the affordability crisis and help Americans across the country struggling to afford their bills, what have Republicans done? Cut $187 billion from the best tool America has to address hunger,” Luján said on the floor before the vote. Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman (R-Ark.) objected to the amendment, raising a point of order against the amendment. The amendment, even if adopted, would have modified the Senate budget resolution and would not have had the force of law. Republicans need to pass the budget resolution to lay the procedural groundwork for a budget reconciliation package funding Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Border Patrol through 2029.
Trump says he hand-picked swimming pool experts for a bargain fix of the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool - President Donald Trump said Thursday that he enlisted swimming pool experts that he’d worked with before to repair the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool, in a video posted to Truth Social, the president’s online media company. Sitting in the Oval Office and speaking directly to the camera, Trump said the pool — which was built in 1922 and served as the foreground for Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous “I Have A Dream” speech — was in “terrible shape,” but repairs would be costly. “It was filthy dirty, and it leaked like a sieve for many years,“ he said, describing a visit he took to the pool recently with Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. “I said, ‘Well, we’re gonna solve the problem.'” Trump, a former real estate developer, is attempting to leave an architectural legacy on the nation’s capitol. That has included a proposed 250-foot triumphal arch along the Potomac River and a massive ballroom on the White House grounds, where last year the president ordered the demolition of the historic East Wing.
Trump, Cabinet evacuated from White House Correspondents Dinner after shots fired - President Trump, first lady Melania Trump and the Cabinet were evacuated from the White House Correspondents Dinner on Saturday night after shots were fired in the Washington Hilton’s lobby. Three or four loud bangs were heard, according to reporters from The Hill who were attending the dinner. People immediately dove under their tables to take cover, before the president, first lady and members of the Cabinet were rushed out of the Washington Hilton, where the annual dinner has been held for decades. Other Cabinet members remained in the room after the shooting. The Secret Service said a shooter was in custody, and that the incident had taken place near screening detectors people must walk through before entering the annual event. It appeared the shooter was subdued before they were able to get into the massive ballroom where the dinner takes place. The press event has tight security; it is regularly attended by the president, Cabinet secretaries, members of Congress, celebrities and the press. “The U.S. Secret Service, in coordination with the Metropolitan Police Department, is investigating a shooting incident near the main magnetometer screening area at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner,” Antony Guglielmi, Secret Service chief of communications, said in a statement. “The president and the first lady are safe along with all protectees. One individual is in custody. The condition of those involved is not yet known, and law law enforcement is actively assessing the situation.”
Rep. Nancy Mace introduces resolution to expel Rep. Cory Mills from the House Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) introduced a resolution on Monday to expel Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), who is facing a wide swath of allegations, from Congress. The House Ethics Committee is investigating whether Mills violated campaign finance laws, received special favors in his position, engaged in sexual misconduct, and misused congressional resources. He has long faced calls from some of his Republican colleagues to step down, with pressure intensifying after former Reps. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) resigned from Congress earlier this month over allegations of sexual misconduct. “The swamp has protected Cory Mills for far too long and we are done letting it slide. We tried to censure him and strip him from his committee assignments. Both parties blocked it, but we are not backing down,” Mace said in a statement. “The evidence against Mills is overwhelming: beating women and telling them to lie about it, cyberstalking women, lying about his military service, and profiting off his seat. Any Member who votes to keep him here is voting to protect a woman beater and a fraud. He needs to be expelled immediately.” “I did not come to Congress to watch powerful people abuse women and cover it up. Cory, your days are numbered. Start packing,” Mace added. In response, Mills told reporters on Monday, “I personally think that you should allow due process.” “I think that what the precedence that she’s setting right now is that you only have to be investigated, and she’s under investigation … so I think that, by her own admission, she’s kind of also saying that she should be expelled as well,” he said. Mills did not directly confirm he is weighing an expulsion effort against Mace, as reported by NOTUS. Mace is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee over allegations of improper reimbursement practices. An expulsion resolution typically requires the support of two-thirds of the House to pass. And a few Republicans do appear to be ready to back efforts to oust Mills.
FBI's Kash Patel to sue The Atlantic for defamation over report on heavy drinking - FBI Director Kash Patel said Sunday that he will sue The Atlantic for defamation after the magazine published a Friday story detailing his alleged drinking habits and absences from the bureau.“Absolutely. It’s coming tomorrow,” he told host Maria Bartiromo on Fox News’s “Sunday Morning Futures” about the forthcoming lawsuit.The FBI director later said he would sue for defamation and vowed to “fight back against the fake news.” The magazine published a story on Friday titled “The FBI Director Is MIA,” citing conversations with more than two dozen people, including current and former FBI officials, members of Congress, hospitality industry workers and others. “Speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information and private conversations, they described Patel’s tenure as a management failure and his personal behavior as a national-security vulnerability,” reporter Sarah Fitzpatrick wrote. Fitzpatrick wrote that while in charge of the bureau, Patel has consumed alcohol “to the point of obvious intoxication” in front of White House officials and other Trump administration staff. On multiple occasions within the past year, members of his security detail have also “had difficulty waking Patel because he was seemingly intoxicated,” The Atlantic reported.White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt and acting Attorney General Todd Blanche both defended Patel in statements to The Atlantic, with Blanche saying that the FBI director “has accomplished more in 14 months than the previous administration did in four years.” “See you and your entire entourage of false reporting in court… But do keep at it with the fake news, actual malice standard is now what some would call a legal lay up,” Patel wrote on the social platform X late Friday night, regarding the piece. Fitzpatrick wrote on X on Friday that she spoke to two dozen people “familiar with Patel’s conduct” for the story. She added that in response to 19 “detailed” questions, Patel responded, “Print it, all false. I’ll see you in court — bring your checkbook.”
Senior DHS Counterterrorism Official Suspended Over Sugar Daddy Scandal -Although the debacle of the Epstein Files™ release set an impossibly high bar to match as far as political scandals go, other high-profile figures within the Trump administration seem determined to reach those heights. From the revelation of Kristi Noem’s husband living a secret double life as a cross-dresser to continued allegations made against FBI Director Kash Patel, claiming everything from misuse of agency resources on his alleged Mossad honeypot girlfriend to his alleged drinking problem that has compromised his ability to fulfill his duties, the Trump administration continues to be rife with scandals as its popular support spirals downward. The latest example of dysfunction within its ranks has led to a senior official at the Department of Homeland Security (”DHS”) being placed on administrative leave. Julia Varvaro, a 29-year-old Deputy Assistant Secretary for Counterterrorism, was suspended by the DHS after accusations arose that she had been exploiting a man she matched with on a dating app as a sugar daddy. The decision to suspend Varvaro came after a formal complaint was filed against her by the man, known only by the pseudonym “Robert B.” In the complaint, Robert alleged that Varvaro swindled him out of $40,000 over the course of their three-month tryst that began in January 2026. “I did not want a sugar daddy/prostitution relationship after spending $30,000-$40,000 for vacations, Cartier jewelry, expensive handbags, and various shopping trips,” the divorced business executive decades Varvaro’s senior stated in the complaint. He went on to describe how the trajectory of their relationship turned from what he believed was a sincere romantic connection to Varvaro using him to fund a lavish lifestyle, including endless expensive dinners at fine-dining restaurants, designer clothing, jewelry, and trips around the world. Throughout the course of their relationship, Robert alleged that Varvaro used her position at the DHS to gain preferential treatment such as bypassing Transportation Security Administration (”TSA”) checkpoints at airports. He claimed that Varvaro leveraged her role at the agency in this manner by arranging for a TSA supervisor to escort the couple through Dulles International Airport in Washington, D.C., en route to departing the city for Aruba on the first of the many trips he paid to take her on. According to Robert, Varvaro boasted that she could also use her position at the DHS to get VIP access at the Milan-Cortina Winter Olympic Games while the two were planning a trip to Italy. Although the couple traveled to Italy, they did not attend the Olympics. Upon returning to Washington, D.C. from Italy, Robert explained how the relationship between him and Varvaro intensified. She began calling him “daddy” and her “lover” after the trip, leading him to believe that the two were in a committed relationship. As their relationship began getting more serious, he began introducing Varvaro to his family, eventually flying her out to Charleston, South Carolina, to meet one of his daughters. When Robert flew to San Diego with Varvaro to meet his other daughter, he was confronted over the nature of their relationship. “She’s a Long Island gold digger. What are you doing?” his daughter pointedly asked him. He responded obliviously, “What do you mean? I’m falling in love.”In his complaint, the cognitive dissonance that clouded Robert’s judgment about the true nature of his relationship with Varvaro was clear. He alleged that Varvaro admitted to him that she had a history of using men as sugar daddies while the two were together. “She also told me directly that the $40,000 worth of jewelry on her wrists and ears are all trophies from her sugar daddies,” he stated. Robert also claimed that Varvaro, who obtained a PhD from St. John’s University’s Homeland Security program in 2024 before being hired to a senior position at the agency in 2025, told him that she used her previous sugar daddies to pay for her student debt.Following admissions of her history of using men as sugar daddies, Varvaro allegedly began pressuring Robert to pay for her rent during the 2025 government shutdown, which lasted from October 1st to November 12th. After paying $2,000 to cover half of her rent during the shutdown, Varvaro asked him to take out a credit card in her name so that she wouldn’t have to continuously request for him to send her money to cover her living expenses. After declining the request to take a credit card out in her name, arguments between the two over his reticence to pay for every request she made became constant, ultimately leading to the end of their relationship. “I like feeling provided for and you’re not doing that for me, so not sure it will work,” Varvaro messaged Robert in early April. In the wake of their relationship ending, Robert claimed he found a profile belonging to Varvaro on the website Seeking, which caters to members seeking sugar daddies, affairs, and other quid pro quo relationships. He claimed that Varvaro was operating a Seeking account under the alias “Alessia,” confirming that from the same photos she used on the website being posted on other social media accounts of hers. Alessia’s account on the sugar daddy website was being used to pursue what she described as “mutually beneficial” relationships with other men. In her profile, Alessia described herself as an employee of a government agency offering men a chance at “seductive sophistication.” This revelation prompted Robert to file a complaint with the DHS Office of the Inspector General, in which he stated, “‘I believe that she’s under financial stress and that her actions pose a [national] security risk.”After reviewing the complaint, the DHS opened an investigation into the claims raised against Varvaro, leading to her suspension. “Julia Varvaro is on administrative leave as a result of the investigation and she is no longer serving in her capacity as a Deputy Assistant Secretary at DHS,” the agency said in a statement.Following her suspension from the DHS, Varvaro unequivocally denied most of the allegations made against her in the complaint filed with the agency. “This is just a mad ex-boyfriend putting crap together. And it’s just really weird,” she told the UK outlet The Daily Mail, the first to obtain the complaint filed by Robert and expose the accusations he made against Varvaro. “I thought it was a great relationship until we just didn’t work, and that was it,” she added. She dismissed the claims from Robert that she had previously used men as sugar daddies in the past, saying she paid for her education through scholarships and financial assistance from her parents. Varvaro also denied having a profile on the website Seeking, an allegation she attributed to Robert being a disgruntled ex-boyfriend. The profile under the name Alessia, which had been active since November 2025, was removed by the website following the allegations against Varvaro becoming publicized. However, The Daily Mail stated it confirmed the existence of the account prior to its deletion.While Varvaro denied the claims that she was using Robert as a sugar daddy and operated a social media account trying to entice other men into similar entanglements, she did acknowledge the validity of some of the accusations he made against her. She admitted asking Robert to take a credit card out in her name, saying she viewed the request as “kind of a normal thing” that men do for their girlfriends. Varvaro also admitted using her position at the DHS to bypass airport security. That admission itself is proof of a violation of the code of ethics departments of the DHS are supposed to abide by on her part.
Anthropic's 'Too Dangerous To Release' AI Model Was Accessed By Discord Group On Day One -- Anthropic's 'Mythos' model is extraordinarily dangerous. The company itself warned that it could autonomously identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities in every major operating system, every major web browser, and every critical software library on Earth. And because of this offensive cybersecurity power, Anthropic refused to release Mythos publicly - and instead tightly restricted access through 'Project Glasswing' to roughly 50 carefully vetted organizations - 12 named launch partners plus more than 40 additional critical software and government entities, including the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA).Yet within hours of the limited rollout announcement on April 7, 2026, a small group of unauthorized users in a private Discord server had already broken in. = The breach, reported by Bloomberg on Tuesday, reveals how fragile the safeguards around frontier AI models can be. According to the report, the group gained access using a surprisingly low-tech combination: legitimate credentials from a third-party contractor involved in Anthropic's evaluations, plus clever internet sleuthing to guess the hidden API endpoint by reverse-engineering Anthropic's internal naming conventions (patterns inferred from an earlier Mercor data leak). They have reportedly been using Mythos regularly for nearly two weeks. Sources emphasize the usage has been non-malicious so far - things like building simple websites - rather than launching cyberattacks."We’re investigating a report claiming unauthorized access to Claude Mythos Preview through one of our third-party vendor environments," a spokesperson said in a statement, adding that there's no evidence that the access went beyond a third-party vendor's environment or that it is impacting any of Anthropic's systems. In early April, Anthropic launched Project Glasswing, a defensive cybersecurity initiative built around Mythos Preview. The 12 launch partners included Amazon Web Services, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Cisco, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, NVIDIA, Broadcom, JPMorgan Chase, and the Linux Foundation, along with over 40 additional critical software organizations. The explicit goal was to give these defenders a head start: let Mythos hunt for vulnerabilities in their own systems and major open-source projects before malicious actors could weaponize the same capabilities. Anthropic's own red-team testing reportedly showed Mythos could find and chain complex zero-days that had remained hidden for decades in software like Linux, OpenBSD, and FFmpeg. Even as the Pentagon formally labeled Anthropic a “supply-chain risk” in March 2026 - citing the company’s refusal to remove ethical guardrails that would allow its models to be used for mass domestic surveillance and autonomous weapons - other key parts of the U.S. government have moved with urgency to embrace the very same technology. The National Security Agency is already actively using Claude Mythos Preview, while the White House’s Office of Management and Budget circulated an internal memo on Monday directing federal agencies to begin leveraging the model for vulnerability discovery in government networks. The Treasury Department has been particularly aggressive, rushing to secure access and convening major bank CEOs for urgent red-teaming sessions after being warned that Mythos could "hack every major system." The unauthorized access was deceptively simple. One member of the Discord group (a private forum focused on hunting unreleased AI models) had legitimate access as a worker at a third-party contractor. Using knowledge of Anthropic's naming patterns, the group correctly guessed the private API endpoint for Mythos Preview on the very same day the limited release was announced. Once inside, they continued using the model without triggering obvious alarms.
US Law Firm Apologizes After AI Hallucinations Made It To Legal Filing -- Wall Street law firm Sullivan & Cromwell has apologized to a federal judge after submitting a court filing that contained around 40 incorrect citations and other errors caused by AI hallucinations.“We deeply regret that this has occurred,” Andrew Dietderich, co-head of Sullivan & Cromwell’s global restructuring team, wrote Friday in a letter to Chief Judge Martin Glenn of the US Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York.“The Firm and I are keenly aware of our responsibility to ensure the accuracy of all submissions including under Local Bankruptcy Rule 9011-1(d), and I take responsibility for the failure to do so,” he said of an emergency motion filed nine days earlier. Excerpt from Andrew Dietderich’s letter to Chief Judge Martin Glenn. Source: Sullivan & Cromwell. The incident highlights the risk AI tools can pose in high-stakes professional work without proper oversight. A database managed by legal technologist Damien Charlotin has recorded 1,334 incidents of AI hallucinations in court filings around the world, including more than 900 in the US.Charlotin pointed out that most of these hallucinations involve fabricated citations, though AI-generated legal arguments have also occasionally been identified. Dietderich said Sullivan & Cromwell has policies in place for the use of AI tools, which include a review of the citations it uses, but said the policies weren’t followed. “Regrettably, this review process did not identify the inaccurate citations generated by AI, nor did it identify other errors that appear to have resulted in whole or in part from manual error.” Sullivan & Cromwell is one of the largest law firms in the US by revenue, ranking 30th on the AmLaw Global 200. The firm also represented crypto exchange FTX in its bankruptcy case.
BankThink Crypto has become part of Iran's arsenal - The stablecoin tether has become part of the infrastructure Iran is using to evade U.S. sanctions.Iran is charging tolls to cross the Strait of Hormuz, and demanding payment in crypto, which helps it both raise money and evade U.S. sanctions. There is a new documentary out called "Everybody Is Lying to You for Money," directed by the actor and crypto skeptic Ben McKenzie. McKenzie spends the entire length of the film arguing that crypto is nothing but a scam, only to declare at the end that nothing he did made much of a difference. He was convinced that he was right, he watched FTX and Celsius collapse, but somehow it didn't matter.
What Iran's Hormuz toll and romance scams have in common - U.S. banks must navigate conflicting signals as Iran's crypto toll demands and rising pig butchering scams exploit the same stablecoin and correspondent banking rails.
- Key insight: Pig butchering scams and Iranian sanctions evasion share the exact same financial infrastructure, including the Tether stablecoin and offshore exchanges.
- What's at stake: Correspondent banks face a 10-year statute of limitations for sanctions violations as illicit crypto flows convert back to cash at their off-ramps.
- Expert quote: Tether is "a key money laundering tool for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, sanctioned Iranian banks, and Iranian weapons manufacturers," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal.
Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz Fuels Insider Trading Debate As Oil Futures Climb Nearly 7%: 'How Much Will The Trump Family Make?'- Governor Tim Walz (D-Minn) on Sunday accused President Donald Trump of insider trading as oil prices surged following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In a post on the social media platform X, Walz quoted a post by CNBC, which said that oil prices surged 7% after tensions escalated between Tehran and Washington. “So how much will the Trump family make in the stock market tomorrow morning?” Walz asked in the post. The speculation comes as Rep. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.), in a letter to Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins, shared that a number of trades made during the war pointed towards the investors having advanced knowledge of key policy decisions. Walz had also flagged similar concerns in the past, calling for transparency and demanding to know what lawmakers and officials traded stocks before Trump’s announcement last month about halting strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Investor Peter Schiff slammed Trump about the situation in the Middle East, sharing that the President’s claims about Iran on Truth Social on Friday pointed towards “market manipulation” as a $760 million bet against crude oil prices came into light. Notably, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf had earlier threatened to expose several Wall Street insiders, who were allegedly involved in manipulating U.S. policy against Tehran to fulfill their interests. As Iran announced the closure of the key trading route, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that Trump’s threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure following the closure were the President’s tactic to bring some leverage to the negotiating table. As tensions escalate, crude oil prices surged. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price at the time of writing this article was $88.94/barrel, demonstrating a 6.07% surge, while Brent crude was $94.72 per barrel, a 4.85% increase. On the other hand, gas prices remained above the $4 mark on Monday, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), with the national average price for a gallon of gasoline at $4.042. California and Hawaii continued to lead the charts for highest gas prices at $5.837/gallon and $5.670/gallon, respectively.
Iran-related risks manageable for banks, but duration is key As the U.S. war with Iran enters its second month, experts are worrying that a prolonged disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could send negative ripples across the broader economy — including second-order effects on bank balance sheets.The central geopolitical variable is not Iran itself, but whether disruption to global energy flows becomes prolonged and unpredictable, said Nicolas Véron, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. How much pain banks ultimately feel because of the conflict ultimately hinges on when and whether energy is able to flow out of the Persian Gulf freely, as it did just a few months ago, he said.
- Key insight: Banks' direct exposures and losses from the Iran conflict have been limited, but the longer the war goes on, the greater the risk of recession and broader financial losses become, experts say.
- Supporting data: Consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level ever in April, according to the University of Michigan's latest report. At the same time, financial experts say unemployment is low and household spending continues to be robust.
- Forward look: Economists say the longer the conflict carries on — and the longer traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted — the greater the risk of stagflation becomes.
Economists and policy analysts say a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz — and uncertainty about the duration of the conflict — could drive up inflation and further weaken consumer sentiment, which could weigh on bank earnings.
BankThink Easing capital rules will require banks to rediscover self-discipline -As capital requirements on U.S. banks are relaxed, and regulatory oversight is pulled back, bankers remain ultimately responsible for managing the risk on their books. This will require drawing clear, internal lines of accountability, writes David Maya.
- What's at stake: When the formula no longer rewards better risk management, will banks have the discipline to hold capital for their unique operational risks?
- Supporting data: Recent research from Nasdaq Verafin found that nearly 90% of financial institutions reported a rise in AI‑driven attacks over the past two years. The research also revealed that fraud losses globally surged to $579 billion, much of which hit banks' balance sheets.
Forward look: The best-run banks will treat this moment as an opportunity to reinvent governance and discipline around risk.
As capital requirements on U.S. banks are relaxed, and regulatory oversight is pulled back, bankers remain ultimately responsible for managing the risk on their books. This will require drawing clear, internal lines of accountability.
Fed's Waller calls for consolidating regional bank operations -- Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said Tuesday that some functions of the 12 regional reserve banks could be consolidated to streamline operations and save taxpayer money.Speaking at the Brookings Institution, Waller said each reserve bank currently runs its own corporate functions — including information technology, human resources, finance and procurement — and that there is "significant opportunity for improvement" by grouping them under one structure.
- Key takeaway: Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller said he wants to consolidate the corporate functions of the 12 regional banks under one structure and create a role to oversee them.
- Expert quote: "Autonomy is a virtue, but not when it produces costly duplication that serves no one. We owe this to the American people we serve. " —Federal Reserve Gov. Christopher Waller
- What's at stake: Fed Gov. Waller argues that technological changes taking hold should incentivize the central bank to move quickly to modernize and manage risks, including cybersecurity threats.
Waller said certain corporate functions at the 12 regional banks, including information technology and human resources, could be consolidated under one structure to increase standardization and reduce costs.
Banks question Basel omission of PMI in mortgage weights — A push by bank prudential regulators to coax banks back into the mortgage market by revising risk weights as part of the Basel III endgame proposal still leaves key hurdles unresolved, including how private mortgage insurance is treated.
- Key takeaway: The current Basel III capital proposal does not explicitly include mortgage insurance as a factor in determining a loan's risk weight, but seeks industry input on the potential benefits and drawbacks of doing so, leaving the door open to possible changes.
- Expert quote: "There are like 50 reasons why banks don't want to do mortgage. All of these things help, but it's not as if banks will be like, 'Oh, PMI is recognized,' and all of a sudden every bank is going to open up a mortgage operation." — Matt Bisanz, partner at Mayer Brown.
- What's at stake: The Federal Reserve is asking for input on the potential benefits and drawbacks of incorporating PMI into risk-weight calculations, signaling the issue remains under consideration as part of the broader Basel framework review.
A proposed update to Basel III capital rules from federal banking regulators does not specifically include mortgage insurance as a factor in determining the risk weight for a mortgage loan held on a bank's balance sheet. Industry experts say it should.
BankThink Congress needs to reform the FCRA's treatment of consumer medical debt -Federal courts have left the door open for Congress to amend the Fair Credit Reporting Act in a way that would ease the burden of involuntary medical debt on Americans, writes Ramon Looby, of Axxale.
- Key insight: Involuntary medical debt continues to impair the credit of an untold number of otherwise creditworthy Americans. Federal courts have left the door open for Congress to amend the Fair Credit Reporting Act in a way that would address the problem.
- Supporting data: A January 2026 KFF survey found that health care costs are now the top financial worry for American families — surpassing food, housing, transportation and utilities.
- Forward look: Congress should establish a distinct legal category for medical debt in the consumer reporting framework — one that reflects both the involuntary nature of the debt and the documented accuracy problems that plague medical billing.
I spent years working at the Consumer Data Industry Association — the trade organization that represents the three major credit bureaus. I know the arguments for keeping medical debt in credit reports. I've made some of them. So, when I tell you that the current system is broken and Congress needs to fix it, I'm not coming at this from the outside.Last July, a federal court in the Eastern District of Texas vacated the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's medical debt credit reporting rule. The ruling was legally defensible — the court found the bureau had overstepped its statutory authority under the Fair Credit Reporting Act. But the legal outcome and the policy outcome are two entirely different things. The court didn't rule that medical debt belongs on credit reports. It ruled that the CFPB didn't have the authority to say otherwise. That distinction matters, because it points directly at Congress. Involuntary medical debt continues to impair the credit of an untold number of otherwise creditworthy Americans. Federal courts have left the door open for Congress to amend the Fair Credit Reporting Act in a way that would address the problem.
Banks assail nonbank oversight in CFPB deregulatory push -Banks are pushing back on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's draft of a five-year strategic plan, which includes a notable pullback from supervising nonbanks.
CFPB finalizes new ECOA rule in major fair lending pivot - The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is eliminating federal oversight of indirect discrimination known as disparate impact, a historic retreat by the federal government in how the civil rights law has been enforced for nearly 50 years.
- Key insight: The CFPB claims that the Equal Credit Opportunity Act does not include statutory language that would allow for a so-called "disparate impact" test for instances of unintended discrimination.
- What's at stake: The changes don't let lenders off the hook entirely. States such as California, Massachusetts and New Jersey maintain strict anti-discrimination rules, creating a compliance minefield for banks.
- Forward look: The CFPB is likely to be sued by state attorneys general and/or consumer advocacy groups over the changes, litigation that could take years to resolve.
The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has finalized changes to Regulation B, which implements the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, to eliminate any liability for indirect discrimination by lenders. The change represents a major shift in how the agency polices lending discrimination.
Podcast 'That's a lawless way of proceeding': Cordray on CFPB cuts – (podcast with complete transcript) Richard Cordray, the first director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, says the Trump administration seems intent on shutting the agency down, even though it has a legal mandate to exist. Welcome to the American Banker Podcast. I'm Penny Crosman. Most people listening to this podcast will know that Richard Cordray was the first head of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. He was recruited by Elizabeth Warren in 2010 to become the head of enforcement for the bureau. Then President Obama shortly after that asked him to become the CFP B'S first director. The CPB was set up after many consumers lost their homes or went into a financial tailspin during the 2008 financial crisis. Now the future of the CFPB looks uncertain with drastic cuts to its funding and its staff proposed by the Trump administration. Richard Cordray is here with us today to talk about the CFBs work and its future prospects. Welcome, Richard.
Bessent says CDFI Fund 'had lost its way' - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday defended cuts to the Community Development Financial Institution Fund in the president's 2027 budget, telling the Senate Appropriations Committee that the program had pursued a "partisan wish list."’
Vivek Ramaswamy, Amy Acton nearly tied in Ohio gubernatorial race: Poll A new poll conducted by Bowling Green State University (BGSU) found that GOP frontrunner Vivek Ramaswamy is in a dead heat with presumptive Democratic nominee Amy Acton in the Ohio gubernatorial race. The survey of 1,000 registered voters in the Buckeye State found that 48 percent of respondents backed Ramaswamy — who has endorsements from President Trump, Vice President Vance and GOP establishment figures — while 47 percent backed Acton. Five percent of respondents said they will back another candidate, less than six months until Election Day. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who ran for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, is also the clear favorite in the GOP primary based on the poll. More than three-quarters of 383 respondents said they wanted him to be the party’s nominee, with 12 percent each backing businessman Casey Putsch and former Morgan Local School District Board President Heather Hill. Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health under Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R), is running unopposed in the primary, which is set for May 5. Early in-person voting began April 7 and runs through May 3, according to the office of Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R). One notable tidbit from the poll: Of 47 supporters of Putsch who were surveyed, 23 percent said that they will still write his name on their ballot in November if he is not the GOP nominee. More than half of that group said they would back Ramaswamy, while 13 percent said they would for Acton, 5 percent said they would vote for another candidate and 3 percent said they would not vote. The winner of the general race will succeed DeWine, a two-term incumbent and longtime mainstay of Ohio politics. Just 7 percent of 1,000 respondents to the BGSU poll said they “strongly” approve of how DeWine is handling his job. One-third of respondents said they “somewhat” approve of his performance, while more than half expressed varying degrees of disapproval with the governor. A plurality of respondents, 46 percent, also said that Ohio is on the wrong track, greater than the 35 percent of those who said the state is headed in the right direction and 18 percent who were unsure.
Kent district to review safety after 8-year-old brought gun to school - The Kent City Schools will review further an April 2 incident in which an an 8-year-old Longcoy Elementary School student was found to have a loaded 9 mm handgun in his backpack. Superintendent Tom Larkin told the Akron Beacon Journal in a phone interview that the district has conducted an internal review of its safety protocols and will have an external review done as well. The Kent Board of Education issued a news release April 22 noting it has "requested that the administration … seek an external review of the incident and our current safety protocols." "The board will continue to work with district administration to determine additional next steps and to ensure that these steps will be communicated with our Kent City Schools families," the release stated. The request follows criticisms at the April 21 school board meeting of how school employees responded to the incident and whether the district did an adequate job of communicating details of the incident. Sarah Wesley told the board her son was the first to tell employees at the elementary school about seeing the second-grader with a gun. "He maintains that he tried to tell two other people who did not act in a safe manner," Wesley said. "He tried to tell someone in the lunchroom who didn't take it serious and then he tried to tell someone else in the lunchroom who did not take it serious." Her son finally talked to his teacher, who took action, Wesley said. "We need to do better for our students," she said. "My son could have died that day as well as other students at Longcoy." Wesley added that the school never went into lockdown. An investigation revealed the child had easy access to the firearm at home and brought the weapon to school for unknown reasons, according to initial reports. The child’s mother was arrested and charged with misdemeanor child endangering. Larkin told a reporter a district statement noted it was "aware that the student alerted a staff member about the presence of a handgun and told two other staff members before telling the teacher." However, the statement added this "was not corroborated by the district's investigation." Kent police Lt. Mike Lewis said that the two workers the boy said he spoke to have denied talking with him. "It's been a very complicated matter for the past few weeks," Lewis said. "New information seems to be coming up in the past couple weeks and we are looking at everything." Lewis said he applauded the student for reporting what he saw, and encouraged other students to do the same.Supreme Court rejects Massachusetts case on parental rights --The Supreme Court on Monday declined to take up an appeal from Massachusetts parents who contended the Constitution requires school employees to get their consent to encourage their child’s pronoun and name change in the classroom. The parents argued the district was violating their fundamental right to direct the upbringing of their child, protected by the 14th Amendment’s due process guarantee. It comes after the court turned away a similar case last December involving a Wisconsin school district. Though the court stayed away again, several conservative justices have expressed interest in the issue. And it comes on the heels of the court’s emergency ruling last month that California was likely violating parents’ constitutional rights in another case implicating transgender students and their parents. Disputes in other states could soon bring the issue back to the justices. “Today’s denial by the Supreme Court is a missed opportunity to defend parental rights,” Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF) Chief Counsel Jim Campbell said in a statement. The conservative Christian legal group represented the Massachusetts parents. The ADF has regularly successfully petitioned the high court to take up major cases involving religious rights and LGBTQ protections. “No school district should make important mental health decisions on behalf of parents and conceal those decisions from them, especially in opposition to the mental-health care that those parents have chosen for their children,” Campbell said. “Our clients have a right to know what is happening to their children so they can make the best decisions for them.” The challenge stems from Ludlow, Mass., where parents of a middle school student sued the school district for steps that staff took to encourage their child in identifying as “genderqueer.” The school district pushed back that the protocol doesn’t actually exist. It told the justices that the case isn’t an appropriate vehicle, even if they want to rule on the broader parental rights issue. “The Court should deny the petition here because it has been asked to render an advisory opinion on a policy that does not exist,” the school district wrote in court filings.
Cloverleaf school board greenlights lawsuit against Medina County auditor over unpaid Nexus pipeline interest - The Cloverleaf Local School District Board of Education this week approved a resolution authorizing legal action to recover more than $200,000 in disputed interest tied to property taxes paid by Nexus Gas Transmission. District officials say the interest stems from public utility tangible personal property taxes for tax years 2019-21 that went unpaid during litigation over the pipeline’s property valuation. Under Ohio law, the district argues, statutory interest should have been assessed and collected alongside those taxes. According to the resolution, the district’s legal counsel issued a June 2025 memorandum concluding that Medina County is obligated to assess and collect the interest. School officials say the Medina County Auditor’s Office has not taken action despite repeated requests over the past year, citing a need for guidance from the county prosecutor.The board authorized Treasurer Jim Hudson and Superintendent Daryl Kubilus Jr. to work with legal counsel to pursue all available remedies, including potential litigation, to compel collection of the funds. The resolution took effect immediately.Board President Jason Myers said the district turned to legal action only after months of unsuccessful attempts to resolve the issue.“As a Medina County taxpayer, it is incredibly frustrating and embarrassing that despite our many requests over the past 12 months to the county auditor, no action has been taken to bill and collect interest owed by Nexus to the Cloverleaf School District and other local entities,” Myers said in a statement to cleveland.com“Instead, we now find ourselves using taxpayer dollars to pursue legal action against our own county government—a situation that should never have been necessary and could have been avoided.”Kubilus said the delay contrasts with other actions involving district finances, pointing to a failed effort by the Medina County Budget Commission to reduce Cloverleaf’s budget.“When government moves faster to take away money from our schools than it does to collect money lawfully owed to us, that’s a problem,” Kubilus said. “And it’s one we’re not going to sit back and accept.”
If Your Heart Stopped Right Now, Would a Stranger Save You? It Depends on Your Sex. -- If you’ve been watching The Pitt Season 2, you may have caught one of the most medically important scenes on television this year. A woman arrives at the ER by ambulance, clutching her chest, complaining of pain. Her EKG comes back looking normal. Doctors are puzzled. Then her heart stops. Dr. Robby, played by Noah Wyle, figures out what happened: the paramedics placed her EKG leads too low on her chest, and far too low to get an accurate reading, missing her heart attack. Later, he confronts the paramedics directly. They felt uncomfortable moving her breasts to place the leads correctly. He turns to his staff and asks: “Shall we put it to a vote? Ladies in the room—show of hands—death with modesty, or life with brief nudity?” The vote from the women is clear: they want to live. It’s a fictional scene (and in real life, public chastisement is certainly not the way to correct medical staff), but it highlights a very real problem we see every day. If someone collapsed at a restaurant, would you start CPR? It turns out that for many people, the answer depends on the sex of the person who collapsed: women are less likely than men to receive CPR from a bystander (a nonmedical professional who is nearby) in public, and they are less likely to receive defibrillation (shocks that can restart the heart). A Duke University study of more than 309,000 cardiac arrests found that women who had a cardiac arrest in public were 14% less likely to receive bystander CPR than men. This is true around the world, too. And women are less likely to survive. Chest compressions and shocks in those first few minutes are critical, and bystander CPR can double to triple the chance of survival. Researchers have asked the public why they think this happens, and the answers are striking:
- Concerns about touching a woman’s chest to provide compressions.
- Concerns about accusations of sexual assault.
- Fear of causing injury to women, in part due to perceptions they are more frail.
- Gender stereotypes that women are emotional or overreactive to symptoms.
- Misperceptions that women are unlikely to experience true cardiac arrest.
While these fears may be common, actual cases of lawsuits against bystanders performing CPR are not—and Good Samaritan laws protect individuals genuinely trying to help in medical emergencies. A 2020 review of CPR lawsuits in the U.S. found the vast majority of lawsuits were related to withholding CPR (not providing it). Lawsuits alleging harm from CPR were extremely rare (only 3 out of 170 cases), and all took place in medical facilities (not bystander CPR). The review found zero cases where a layperson was found liable for harm by providing CPR. If someone is unresponsive and not breathing (or only gasping), start CPR. The basics are simple, and anyone can do it. Here’s a quick refresher:
CDC blocks publication of report showing COVID vaccine efficacy The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has canceled publication of a scientific report showing the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccine, according to media reports. The Washington Post, which first reported the news, says the report, initially scheduled to be published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on March 19, showed the COVID-19 vaccine cut the likelihood of emergency department visits and hospitalizations in half this past winter. The report had cleared the agency’s scientific review process before being delayed by acting CDC Director Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, over concerns about the methodology. But the same methodology has long been used by the CDC to evaluate vaccine effectiveness for respiratory viruses and was used in a study on the flu vaccine published last month in MMWR. In response to a query from CIDRAP News, a CDC official did not address the blocked report specifically but said the agency has to apply the “highest standards of scientific rigor” to the information it publishes. “Responsible science requires careful review. Taking time to ensure analyses are methodologically sound and clearly communicated is always preferable to risking error,” the official said. A former CDC official said he wasn’t aware of a report that was already cleared and scheduled for publication in MMWR being blocked by leadership during his time at the agency. “Suppressing the standard of science on VE [vaccine efficacy] to wait for a perfect study in a system that cannot support it is not a hallmark of transparent scientific expertise,” Demetre Daskalakis, MD, MPH, the former director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said in an email. The news comes at a time when the Trump administration has been seeking to downplay efforts by Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who oversees the CDC, to undo US vaccine policies ahead of the midterm elections. In May 2025, Kennedy announced that the COVID-19 vaccine, which he once called “the deadliest vaccine ever made,” would no longer be recommended for pregnant women and healthy children.
CIDRAP Op-Ed: When you get what you wish for: How anti-vax advocacy is making Big Pharma bigger | CIDRAP - For years, one of the loudest arguments against vaccines, and against the public health professionals, scientists, and clinicians who recommend them, has been that they're a pharmaceutical cash grab. That drug companies are getting rich off your kids' shot schedules. That the whole enterprise is less about health than about profit. I'm not going to pretend pharmaceutical companies aren't in it to make money. Of course they are, and nobody should expect otherwise. But if profit is what drives pharmaceutical investment, the industry's own behavior is the most honest answer to whether vaccines were ever actually where the smart money was. If a goal of undermining vaccine policy was to limit pharmaceutical profit, how's that going? Let's follow the money. When Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel was asked at the World Economic Forum in January whether the current vaccine policy environment would affect his company's ability to develop new vaccines, he didn't hesitate: “100%." The company has since signaled it will not invest in new phase 3 vaccine trials for infectious diseases for the foreseeable future, pivoting its pipeline toward oncology (specifically cancer treatment, not prevention). Meanwhile, the federal government canceled nearly $500 million in contracts funding mRNA vaccine development — the same technology that helped mitigate a pandemic and, as researchers at Johns Hopkins have noted, holds enormous promise for future infectious diseases, cancer, and autoimmune conditions. Moderna isn't alone. Johnson & Johnson explicitly cut back spending on infectious disease vaccines, redirecting resources toward treatments for chronic conditions like cancer and autoimmune disease. Merck's vaccine sales cratered in 2025—Gardasil down 39%, Pneumovax down 37%—dragging on overall growth so visibly that analysts publicly questioned the company's trajectory. Pfizer is pivoting aggressively to obesity treatments. Many of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies are moving in the same direction at the same time—away from vaccines and toward treatments, which have always generated significantly more revenue. Vaccines were never the profit engine they've been made out to be, and economists have understood this for decades. The math follows a clear logic. For treatments, pharmaceutical companies negotiate with insurers and payers over a known, defined population with a demonstrated need and medical urgency. These conditions give manufacturers significant pricing leverage. For vaccines, the dynamic reverses. Government programs and insurers buying vaccines on behalf of a healthy population face far less urgency and have considerably more leverage to push prices down. Not everyone who receives a vaccine would have gotten the disease, which makes it structurally harder to justify high prices to payers than it is for a treatment with a sick patient behind it. For these reasons, treatments generate substantially higher revenue than vaccines, and that gap can grow considerably larger, depending on the disease and population. (My Unbiased Science team and I are actively working on a deeper economic analysis of exactly this dynamic with some brilliant health economists—stay tuned.) What about COVID-19 vaccines? For a brief, historically anomalous window, vaccine manufacturers did generate extraordinary profits. But those profits came from guaranteed government bulk purchases, emergency authorization pathways, and essentially zero market competition—conditions that have never existed for routine childhood vaccines and likely never will again. Using that exception to characterize vaccine economics broadly is a bit like concluding that construction is always a windfall because someone got a government contract to rebuild infrastructure after a disaster. Prevention is also a lousy business model in another respect. A wildly successful vaccine reduces the number of sick people, which shrinks the future market for treatments. From a purely commercial standpoint, an effective vaccine is a company undermining its own long-term revenue stream. Treatments don't have that problem. Every person who remains sick is a continuing customer. And yet, despite these commercial headwinds, vaccines have persisted because they work. They are among the most rigorously tested and regulated products in the history of medicine, and they have saved more lives than perhaps any other intervention we have. The market never fully rewarded that, but the science delivered anyway. Pharma is not the devil it's been made out to be. It has its issues, it has made its missteps (opioid crisis, anyone?), and nobody is mistaking it for a humanitarian organization. But it is also not some monolithic conspiracy against public health. It is a collection of for-profit companies responding rationally to market signals. And right now, the market is sending a very clear signal—one that the loudest critics of pharmaceutical influence helped create. The deep irony is that the very people who condemned vaccines as a Big Pharma profit scheme may be the ones most responsible for making pharma bigger. Fewer vaccines mean more preventable illnesses. More preventable illnesses mean more people who need treatment. More treatment means more pharmaceutical revenue—recurring, long-term, high-margin revenue of exactly the kind that vaccines don't generate. The people who spent years insisting vaccines were making pharmaceutical companies rich have, through their own policy choices, created conditions for pharmaceutical companies to become richer. Just not from vaccines. From everything that comes after. We were told to be suspicious of the vaccine market, so it’s being dismantled. In doing so, we are handing the industry a more lucrative one.
Better overall sleep associated with lower pneumonia risk A composite measure of healthy sleep—which captured not just how long people sleep but how well and how consistently—is associated with a substantially lower risk of pneumonia, according to a long-term cohort study published this week in Open Forum Infectious Diseases. For the prospective analysis, Chinese researchers examined health data from 361,589 adults in the United Kingdom. Those with the healthiest overall sleep patterns had a 26% lower risk of developing pneumonia over roughly 13 years of follow-up than those with the poorest sleep profiles. Five sleep characteristics—duration, chronotype (being a “morning person” vs an “evening person”), insomnia symptoms, snoring, and daytime sleepiness—were used to determine an overall sleep score of 0 to 5. Participants were then grouped into poor (0 to 1), intermediate (2 to 3), and healthy (4 to 5) sleep score categories. Over the study period, 20,116 participants (5.6%) developed pneumonia. The findings showed that risk decreased as sleep improved. Those with the healthiest sleep profiles had the lowest risk of developing pneumonia overall, while those with intermediate scores had modestly lower risk, and those with poor scores had the highest risk. The findings also suggest that different aspects of sleep are associated with respiratory infection risk in specific ways. People who didn’t often feel sleepy during the day had a lower risk of pneumonia (hazard ratio [HR], 0.79), as did those who didn’t experience frequent insomnia symptoms (HR, 0.88). Being a “morning person” was also associated with a lower risk (HR, 0.93). The lowest risk was seen in people who slept seven to eight hours per night. Sleeping less than seven hours (HR, 1.15) or more than 8 hours (HR, 1.29) was linked to a higher risk of pneumonia, forming a U-shaped pattern. Snoring didn’t appear to affect pneumonia risk (HR, 1.00). The link between healthy sleep and lower pneumonia risk was more pronounced in adults younger than 60 and in women, findings that “should be interpreted cautiously, but may be consistent with evidence that younger adults exhibit greater immunological responsiveness to sleep variation before the onset of age-related immunosenescence [gradual weakening of the immune system], and that associations between sleep disturbance and inflammatory responses are, in some settings, stronger in women.” They team didn’t find any evidence that factors like body weight, smoking, exercise, diet quality, or having multiple health conditions changed the relationship between sleep and pneumonia risk.
Hegseth removes flu vaccination requirement for US troops --Today, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth posted a video on social media announcing that, effective immediately, US military troops will no longer be required to receive annual flu shots.“The notion that a flu vaccine must be mandatory for every service member, everywhere, in every circumstance, at all times, is just overly broad and not rational,” Hegseth said. “Our new policy is simple: If you, an American warrior entrusted to defend this nation, believe that the flu vaccine is in your best interest, then you are free to take it; you should. But we will not force you.”Hegseth said vaccine requirements deny military members medical autonomy, and removing mandates restores freedom to the military. In the video, Hegseth called mandatory COVID-19 vaccination “an era of betrayal” from the “disastrous Biden era” that’s now over. COVID-19 vaccines were required for service members from August 24, 2021, to January 10, 2023. According to the Department of Defense, more than 8,000 service members were involuntarily discharged from the military for refusing that vaccine.It’s unclear why Hegseth made this announcement today, as flu season is winding down, and Hegseth’s focus has been on the ongoing conflict in Iran.Public health officials reacted to today’s decision negatively. “The policy ignores warnings that more flu illness will mean more missed duty days, more hospitalizations and more preventable readiness losses,” said Richard Riccardi, PhD, of the George Washington University Center for Health Policy and Media Engagement, in a university press release. “Troops live and work in close quarters, where influenza can spread quickly and sideline otherwise healthy service member.”
US states took divergent actions in absence of federal COVID vaccine guidance last respiratory virus season The lack of updated federal vaccine recommendations early in the 2025-26 US respiratory virus season—and a statement in May 2025 by the Health and Human Services secretary advising against COVID vaccines for children and pregnant women—created uncertainty for states with vaccine regulations based on federal guidance, leading most to strengthen and/or weaken COVID-19 vaccine access, with long-term implications for future vaccine policy, according to a research letter published yesterday in JAMA. Researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill led a systematic review of publicly documented vaccine-policy actions by all 50 states from April 1 to December 31, 2025, before and during the respiratory virus season. The team characterized state actions as strengthening if they expanded or supported COVID-19 vaccine infrastructure or access or as weakening if they changed or limited policy mechanisms supporting vaccine infrastructure or access. “The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) release vaccine regulatory decisions and recommendations, which states often reference in laws and regulations to govern clinician authority, insurance coverage, and, ultimately, vaccine access,” the study authors wrote. During the study period, 31 states (62%) enacted policies to strengthen COVID-19 vaccine infrastructure or access, 13 (26%) took steps that eroded it, and five enacted both types of policies. “In the 5 states that enacted both strengthening and weakening measures, executive and/or administrative actions were most often targeted at preserving pharmacy vaccine access amid delayed updates to federal COVID-19 vaccination guidance, while legislative actions expanded exemptions or constrained public health authority,” the researchers wrote. Based on 2025 US Census Bureau data, states taking strengthening steps represented 57.9% of the population (197.6 million), while those that took weakening actions represented 25.0% (85.2 million), those that enacted both types represented 6.9% (23.7 million), and those that took no action represented 10.1% (34.6 million). Policy mechanisms used to strengthen vaccine infrastructure or access included standing orders (18), health insurance directives and coverage policies (15), executive or regulatory directives (18), and legislation (8). Thirty states took at least one strengthening step affecting pharmacist scope-of-practice authority, which is important because pharmacists administer more than two-thirds of adult COVID-19 vaccines each year, the authors said. Many states used multiple policy mechanisms. Fifteen states released their own COVID-19 vaccine recommendations. For strengthening actions, the professional medical society guidance referenced most often was from the American Academy of Pediatrics (21 states), the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (20), and the American Academy of Family Physicians (20). Fourteen states joined the Governors Public Health Alliance and/or regional collaboratives (ie, Northeast Public Health Collaborative or West Coast Health Alliance), which coordinated vaccine policy responses. State measures that weakened vaccine infrastructure or restricted access were changes to COVID-19 vaccine requirements, informed consent processes, and out-of-pocket costs (10 actions, such as expanding exemptions from or outlawing vaccine requirements, or raising vaccination fees). “The most common actions that weakened vaccine infrastructure or access for COVID-19 vaccines were expanded exemptions or limitations on vaccine requirements, signaling a shift in priority from population-level immunization coverage to individualized risk-benefit assessment,” the authors wrote. Four states also changed clinician practice and liability frameworks, such as through scope-of-practice restrictions for COVID-19 vaccination and modifications to vaccine informed consent or liability. Three states limited state health department COVID-19 regulatory or communication authority. “States frequently relied on evidence-based clinical guidance from national medical societies in the absence of updated ACIP recommendations,” the researchers wrote. “With further changes to the broader US Department of Health and Human Services childhood immunization schedule, 28 states as of January 2026 had announced they no longer solely rely on the CDC for vaccine recommendations.” These actions showed how state authority can affect vaccination in a shifting federal landscape. “Sustained divergence in state policy may increasingly determine how and where vaccines are accessed,” the authors concluded. “A stable, evidence-based national recommendation and regulatory framework remains critical to maintaining coherence in the US immunization system.”
COVID vaccines tied to less hospital care, long COVID, and economic burden People vaccinated against COVID in Germany in 2023 experienced reduced hospitalization rates, fewer long-COVID diagnoses, and lower all-cause mortality than those who weren't vaccinated, according to a new study published in Eurosurveillance. These clinical benefits translated to significant reductions in health care costs and lost productivity due to sick leave. For the study, researchers led by a team from BioNTech, which codeveloped COVID-19 vaccines with Pfizer, analyzed health insurance data for roughly 146,000 people, half of whom were vaccinated, from September 2022 through March 2024 to assess the impact of COVID vaccination on clinical and economic outcomes. The findings suggest that vaccination was associated with a meaningful reduction in severe outcomes. COVID-related hospitalizations were less than half as common among vaccinated participants, with 0.30 hospitalizations per 100 people per year, compared with 0.75 among those who were unvaccinated. Most of the COVID-related hospitalizations were due to pneumonia. Vaccinated participants were also less likely to receive a long-COVID diagnosis. A German national public health organization, the Robert Koch Institut, estimates that 5% to 10% of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 develop long COVID. The hospitalization rate for respiratory infections was also lower among vaccinated people. There were 2.8 hospitalizations per 100 people per year in the vaccinated group, compared with 3.6 in the unvaccinated group. A similar pattern was seen for cardiovascular disease. Hospitalizations for heart-related conditions occurred at a rate of 8.9 per 100 people per year among vaccinated people, compared with 11.2 in their unvaccinated counterparts. During the four-month follow-up period, vaccinated people were less likely than their unvaccinated peers to die from any cause. There were 4.5 deaths per 100 people per year in the vaccinated group, compared with 6.0 deaths per 100 in the unvaccinated group. The clinical benefits associated with vaccination led to measurable reductions in health care costs, according to the data. On average, vaccinated participants incurred about €21 ($25) per person per year in COVID-related hospital costs, compared with about €64 ($75) for unvaccinated participants. Over the follow-up period, those savings added up to just over 1 million fewer Euros spent on COVID-related hospital care among vaccinated people. Preventing illness also helped limit indirect costs such as lost productivity due to missed work. “Beyond direct health benefits, vaccinated working-age individuals incurred fewer COVID-19– and respiratory-related sick leave days, resulting in an estimated EUR 1.3 million [$1.5 million] reduction in indirect costs due to absence from work,” the researchers write. “The relevance of these findings is pertinent, as sick leave days resulting from respiratory infections represented the most common reason for absence from work in Germany in 2024,” they added. “This highlights the broader economic relevance of vaccination from both healthcare payer and societal perspectives.” The data also showed that both the clinical and economic benefits were greater among older adults and those with underlying conditions—two groups that face a higher risk of severe disease.
Paxlovid doesn’t reduce hospitalization, death rates in vaccinated high-risk COVID outpatients, trial shows Two open-label, multicenter randomized controlled platform trialsshow that early treatment with the antiviral drug nirmatrelvir–ritonavir (Paxlovid) doesn’t cut hospitalization or all-cause death rates in vaccinated high-risk COVID-19 patients, although it does speed recovery. For the trials, one each in the United Kingdom (PANORAMIC trial) and Canada (CanTreatCOVID), a team led by University of Oxford researchers randomly assigned high-risk, vaccinated adult COVID-19 outpatients to receive either usual care plus nirmatrelvir (300 milligrams [mg])–ritonavir (100 mg) twice a day for five days, or usual care alone from April 2022 to September 2024. Paxlovid is indicated for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in adults at increased risk for severe illness. A total of 3,516 adults were enrolled in PANORAMIC, and 716 participated in CanTreatCOVID. High-risk patients were those aged 50 years or older, or younger adults who had underlying medical conditions such as asthma or diabetes. All participants had been ill for no more than five days, and over 98% were vaccinated against COVID-19. Follow-up was 28 days. The CanTreatCOVID trial was stopped early owing to slow recruitment and because its Paxlovid supply was discontinued. The findings were published this week in the New England Journal of Medicine. “Nirmatrelvir–ritonavir has been shown to reduce progression to severe illness from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in unvaccinated high-risk outpatients,” the study authors wrote. “The effectiveness of nirmatrelvir–ritonavir in persons who have been vaccinated, infected naturally, or both is unclear.”
Moderna’s combo flu-COVID vaccine receives European authorization - The world’s first combination seasonal influenza and COVID-19 vaccine, Moderna’s mCombriax, has received marketing authorization from the European Commission, following a positive review from the European Medicines Agency’s Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use. “By combining protection against two significant respiratory viruses in a single dose, our vaccine aims to simplify immunization for adults, particularly those at high risk,” said Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel, MBA, in a press release. “mCOMBRIAX offers an important new option for Europeans, while also aiming to strengthen the resilience of healthcare systems across Europe." According to the company, mCombriax was based on the clinical development of mNexspike, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine, and mRNA-1010, Moderna’s investigational seasonal influenza vaccine, which has been accepted for review in the European Union (EU), United States, Canada, and Australia. The vaccine performed well in a phase 3 trial, where a single dose elicited statistically significant higher immune responses against three influenza virus strains (A/H1N1, A/H3N2, and B/Victoria) and against SARS-CoV-2 in adults 50 to 64 years and 65 years and older. The marketing authorization is valid in all 27 EU member states, as well as Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. No major safety concerns or adverse events were seen in the phase 3 trial.
CDC: 6 more US children die of flu as season winds down - Six more US children died of influenza last week as seasonal respiratory virus activity continues slowing, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported today in its weekly FluView report. Pediatric flu deaths so far this season now total 149. About 85% of the children who died and had a known vaccination status were unvaccinated. Positivity for flu in clinical labs was 4.7%, down from 6.0% the week before. In total, 1.9% of visits to a health care provider were for respiratory disease, compared with 2.1% the previous week, and the hospitalization rate was 1.3 per 100,000 people, a shift downward from 3.4 the week before. Influenza B viruses remain predominant after surpassing influenza A viruses in recent weeks. Of 2,302 influenza A viruses collected since September 28, 2025, that underwent additional genetic testing, 92.8% have belonged to subclade K, a variant tied to immune escape.Thus far in 2026, the CDC estimates that there have been at least 31 million illnesses, 380,000 hospitalizations, and 23,000 deaths from flu.Data from WastewaterSCAN shows that viral levels of measles, SARS-CoV-2, and influenza A in wastewater have been low for the past 10 days, but concentrations of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), influenza B, human metapneumovirus, norovirus, and rotavirus are high.
In hearings, RFK Jr claims no responsibility for measles spread - Today Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. appeared before two Senate committees and distanced himself from record-breaking measles outbreaks in the United States, despite his role as overseeing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), one of the many agencies in the HHS umbrella. His testimony capped off a busy week on Capitol Hill, where he made seven appearances. Kennedy was there to discuss the proposed 2027 HHS budget, but after failing to appear in front of lawmakers for many months, during which Kennedy made broad changes to national recommendations for childhood vaccines, appeared shirtless in promotional videos with Kid Rock, and withheld millions of Medicaid funds from “blue” states like Minnesota and California, Kennedy found himself facing questions from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle. During his opening statements to both committees, Kennedy focused on nutrition, food dyes, and the chronic disease epidemic, Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) topics that are seen as less controversial than anti-vaccine rhetoric that could punish Republicans during upcoming midterm elections. But senators repeatedly pivoted to two issues Kennedy couldn’t shake: the punishing costs of prescription drugs, and the ongoing US measles epidemic. Throughout the Finance Committee meeting, Kennedy said he had nothing to do with large ongoing measles outbreaks across the country, and implied it was rising international rates of the virus seeding outbreaks in the United States. “I have not visited Mexico or Europe. I have nothing to do with the measles outbreak. A lot of nations have lost their elimination status; [the] outbreak has nothing to do with me,” Kennedy said. "The whole world had their worst measles year.” Kennedy went on to explain that most unvaccinated Americans who contracted measles last year were over the age of 5 years, meaning their parents decided to not vaccinate well before Kennedy assumed his role at HHS. But David L. Hill, MD, a spokesperson for the American Academy of Pediatrics, said the issue is nuanced. “When 95% of the population is vaccinated, sporadic cases from outside the country don’t spread as they are doing now, where rates in many communities have fallen below that level,” Hill told CIDRAP News. “So, anyone who is spreading misinformation about the safety or effectiveness or measles vaccine shares in the responsibility for these outbreaks, especially if they have the ear of the public.
COMMENTARY: RFK Jr’s mercurial congressional testimony again showcases ideology over vaccine science | CIDRAP - US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s testimony before Congress last week offered a revealing glimpse into how ideology has overtaken evidence at the nation’s top health agency. In a single exchange about mercury exposure, Kennedy tried to evade accountability for the Trump administration’s rollback of pollution limits that protect children’s neurologic development while reviving long-debunked fears about vaccine preservatives, exposing both the contradictions at the heart of federal vaccine policy and the uneasy fit between the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement and the administration’s broader environmental agenda. At the hearing, US Rep. Josh Harder, who represents a Stockton, Calif.-area district, reminded Kennedy, who was an environmental advocate before he became associated with anti-vaccine efforts, of his previous advocacy for limiting mercury emissions from power plants. He recalled that when the first Trump administration tried to roll back mercury runoff limits, Kennedy personally attended the hearing to express his opposition. Kennedy’s previous activism against mercury emissions was well-founded. Coal-fired power plants are a major, human-caused source of mercury emissions. Released mercury deposits into water and soil, where microbes convert part of it into methylmercury, the form that bioaccumulates in fish and is known to be neurotoxic, especially during fetal development. What, therefore, Harder asked, did Kennedy make of the Trump administration’s decision to restore older mercury pollution limits that let some coal plants emit substantially more methylmercury-forming pollution—up to about two-thirds more for plants powered by the lowest-grade coal? Though Kennedy bristled at the question, he didn’t defend the administration’s actions. The representative, he said, needed to ask the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). His HHS had nothing to do with it. The problem with Kennedy’s answer is that a major EPA rule affecting mercury emissions does not simply appear without interagency review, which the secretary must have known. Policies with significant public health implications typically move through a formal process that includes consultation across the federal government On December 23, 2025, EPA submitted a draft of the final action to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for interagency review under Executive Order 12866. That matters because the review is handled through OMB’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), where major rules are circulated across relevant federal agencies for comment. For Kennedy to suggest he was unaware is difficult to reconcile with how the federal government typically works, not to mention the fact that the administration’s plan to roll back the mercury emissions standards had been public since last spring. But the more troubling part of the exchange with Harder was not the dodge. It was Kennedy’s misleading pivot. The secretary tried to defend his environmentalist bona fides by citing HHS’s withholding of US funding from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, because some vaccines it supports still use thimerosal, a preservative containing ethylmercury, which prevents contamination in multidose vials. He framed this as a principled stand against mercury exposure. In truth, it was a case study in how ideology—not evidence—is driving federal health leadership. Thimerosal contains ethylmercury, not methylmercury. That distinction matters. Ethylmercury is processed and cleared from the body much faster and does not accumulate the same way. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has long explained this difference clearly, and the scientific evidence has been consistent for decades: Thimerosal is not linked to autism or other neurodevelopmental disorders. Kennedy has a history of conflating the two mercury-containing compounds.In 2005, he wrote “Deadly Immunity,” an article published in Rolling Stone and on Salon that argued thimerosal was linked to autism. Both publications later distanced themselves from the piece, because the data were inaccurate, selectively presented, or taken out of context. In 2014, he published a book advancing similar claims, which drew similarly sharp criticism from scientists and physicians for misstating evidence and exaggerating risk. The Institute of Medicine—now the National Academy of Medicine—reviewed more than 200 studies and found that the evidence favored rejection of a causal relationship between thimerosal-containing vaccines and autism. Large epidemiologic studies in the United States and internationally reached the same conclusion. When thimerosal was removed from nearly all routine childhood vaccines in the United States more than two decades ago—a precautionary step taken to maintain public confidence, not because of demonstrated harm—autism rates continued to rise, further undercutting claims of causation. And yet Kennedy is now conditioning global vaccine financing on a claim that has already been exhaustively tested and rejected.This matters because Gavi is one of the world’s most important vaccine delivery systems, helping protect millions of children from diseases like diphtheria, tetanus, and hepatitis B. Suspending support over a disproven fear about thimerosal does not protect children. It puts them at greater risk.At the same time, downplaying increased industrial mercury exposure while elevating long-debunked claims about vaccine preservatives sends a dangerous message: that public health decisions are no longer being made according to actual risk.
Antibiotic-resistance genes detected in babies within first 3 days of life - New research presented at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases (ESCMID) Global 2026 conference in Munich suggests antibiotic-resistance genes (ARGs) are present in newborns shortly after birth. In a study involving 105 newborns admitted to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) from July 2024 to July 2025, a team led by researchers from Aristotle University of Thessaloniki in Greece performed molecular analysis on meconium, the first stool passed by newborns. Typically passed within 24 to 48 hours of birth in healthy babies, meconium consists of a mixture of amniotic fluid, mucus, bile, and cells that have been shed from the skin and intestinal tract.Although meconium was once believed to be sterile, recent research suggests gut bacteria may pass from the mother to the fetus and baby while in the womb, during delivery, and through breast feeding. In addition, infants are exposed to a number of organisms in the hospital environment after birth. One small study found the presence of ARGs in meconium and early stool samples of one-week-old infants. Based on these findings, the researcher screened the meconium samples for 56 different ARGs.“This is the largest study of its kind exploring the effect of hospital environment on the collection of ARGs in the neonatal gut,” lead author Argyro Ftergioti, MD, said in an ESCMID press release.Overall, each sample of meconium, which were collected within the first 72 hours of life, contained a median of eight ARGs, with oqxA (98% of samples) and qnrS (96%) the most commonly detected genes. Genes carrying extended-spectrum beta-lactamase enzymes (blaCTXM and blaCMY), which can confer resistance to several antibiotic classes, were found in roughly half the samples, while genes linked to carbapenem resistance were found in 21% of samples. Carbapenems are a last-resort antibiotic for multidrug-resistant infections.“Although some ARGs were expected, their high prevalence across the majority of samples was striking—particularly for clinically critical genes offering carbapenem resistance,” Ftergioti said.When they examined factors linked to the presence of ARGs in newborns, the researchers found a mix of maternal and hospital environment-related factors. For example, while some ARGs were associated with the mother being hospitalized during pregnancy, the insertion of a central venous catheter within the first 24 hours of life was associated with a fourfold risk of ARGs, a finding that suggests the newborns were exposed to ARG-carrying microbes from the hospital environment. Although it’s unclear if the presence of ARGs in the newborns heightens their risk for antibiotic-resistant infections or affects their development, the findings add to a growing body of research on how different exposures affect the infant gut microbiome, which is nearly sterile at birth but rapidly develops in the first few months of life. A 2019 study of infants in NICUs found that preterm babies who received prolonged antibiotics to ward off infection had more potentially dangerous, drug-resistant bacteria in their gastrointestinal tract than healthy infants who received no antibiotics.
HPV risk in women extends beyond young adulthood, with late-life increase Women in the United States continue to acquire new human papillomavirus (HPV) infections well into midlife and older age, with more than one in 10 unvaccinated women testing positive within five years, according to a study published last week in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases. HPV infection is a risk factor for cervical and other types of cancer in women. For the large retrospective cohort study, researchers from software company TriNetX, vaccine maker Merck, and the Yale School of Public Health analyzed electronic health record (EHR) data from more than 305,000 unvaccinated women aged 27 years and older from 2012 to 2024. All participants had a negative HPV test at the start of the study and were followed up for up to five years to assess for new infections. Over that period, 10.3% of women developed a new HPV infection. Incidence was highest among women ages 27 to 29, with a five-year cumulative rate of 21.1%, then declined steadily through midlife to 6.7% among women ages 55 to 59. Rates rose again in older age-groups, reaching 15.9% among women ages 70 years and older. Previous research has identified a U-shaped pattern in HPV incidence over the lifespan, with high rates observed in younger women, a dip in midlife, and an increase later in life. This pattern may reflect the presence of new exposures later in life due to changes in social behavior and sexual networks as a result of divorce or widowhood. It may also reflect the reactivation of infections acquired years earlier. Age-related changes in immune function may reduce the body’s ability to keep latent viruses in check. The findings also showed disparities in infection rates by race and insurance status. Five-year incidence was higher among Black (13.3%) and Hispanic women (11.5%) than among White (9.7%) and non-Hispanic women (10.0%). Compared with those who had commercial insurance (8.5%), Medicare Advantage (13.0%), or unknown insurance status (14.1%), Medicaid enrollees had the highest incident rate, at 21.6%. This aligns with previous observations that lower socioeconomic status may be associated with lower rates of cervical cancer screening, allowing undetected infections to progress.
Less than half of US infants exposed to hepatitis C are tested, and fewer are treated -- A study of more than 4,500 US infants exposed to hepatitis C virus (HCV) in utero or at birth from 2014 to 2021 finds that only 42% were later tested for the potentially serious but highly treatable infection, and few received the recommended treatment. A team led by Boston University researchers used a statewide health database to explore factors tied to HCV testing of perinatally exposed infants in Massachusetts and estimated the proportion of infants diagnosed as having perinatal HCV infection who then receive care. They published their findings late last week in JAMA Network Open. Perinatal HCV infection, which occurs in about 8% of exposed infants, is the most common route of HCV transmission in children, the authors noted. “In October 2023, the CDC [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention] recommended RNA testing for infants exposed to HCV between ages 2 and 6 months to reduce loss to follow-up before later antibody testing,” they wrote. “While we await data on testing practices following the new guidelines, understanding factors associated with improved testing could shape interventions to implement these recommendations.” The annual proportion of infants exposed to HCV (as a percentage of all live births in Massachusetts) rose from 0.73% (509 births) in 2014 to 1.34% (700) in 2020, declining to 1.1% in 2021. Among the 4,103 children born to 3,419 mothers with probable or confirmed HCV infection, only 41.9% of exposed infants were tested. HCV was diagnosed in 2.5% of infants tested. Appropriate HCV testing rates declined over time; 45.7% of infants born in 2014 were tested, compared with only 32.3% of those born in 2020. By December 2022, 46.4% of exposed children had undergone any HCV testing, and 41.9% completed appropriate testing (RNA testing starting at 2 months of age or antibody testing starting at 18 months). Of those who completed appropriate testing, 48.7% had antibody testing alone, 30.9% underwent RNA testing, and 20.3% had both antibody and RNA testing. The proportion appropriately tested varied by county (from 32.5% to 48.5%) and birthing hospital (27.1% to 67.4%). Only 56.2% of deliveries had HCV recorded in birth certificate data, and 79.6% had a claim for the mother’s HCV diagnosis during the delivery hospitalization. Histories of housing instability or homelessness (77.6%), incarceration (37.3%), mental illness (84.8%), and substance use disorders (72.4%) were prevalent. A health care claim for the mother’s HCV infection within 30 days of delivery (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 5.40), a prescription for medication for opioid use disorder during pregnancy (aOR, 1.29), and factors correlated with HCV risk were linked to significantly greater chances of appropriate testing. Risk factors for lower testing probability were Black race (aOR, 0.65) and private health insurance (aOR, 0.76). Of 38 children with perinatal HCV who were 3.5 years or older by study end in 2022, 81.6% were linked to care, 65.8% underwent genotype testing, and less than 29.0% had evidence of HCV treatment. One barrier to care is the lack of liquid HCV treatment regimens for children; rather, the only available treatments consist of bitter granules or pellets that require administration with food, the researchers said. “A 2025 study found 51% of children referred for HCV treatment could not swallow pills upon referral,” they wrote. “While 92% achieved SVR [sustained virologic response], approaching clinical trial SVR rates, not all settings have specialized pharmacy teams to facilitate medication approvals and swallowing practice. Additionally, there are relatively few pediatric HCV specialists.” The findings suggest that many more infants are untested because their mother’s HCV infection status is unknown. “It is critical that (1) we test all pregnant people for HCV, (2) prenatal clinicians communicate HCV results to pediatricians, and (3) pediatricians check prenatal HCV testing results routinely for all children, regardless of background or perceived HCV risk, to ensure all exposed children are identified and tested,” the authors wrote.
Low risk of clade 1 mpox spread during air travel revealed Transmission of clade 1 mpox virus during commercial air travel appears to be uncommon, according to a study published yesterday in the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The analysis looked at data from five commercial flights taken by three men with active mpox symptoms to assess the risk of in-flight transmission. The three men were aged 20 to 40 years. The flights took place from November 2024 to January 2025. Among 60 identified contacts, defined as nearby passengers and crew, one person reported symptoms of fatigue, body aches, and a skin lesion after the flight, but that person tested negative for mpox. No secondary cases were identified. Mpox is an infectious disease that causes painful rashes and blisters, as well as flu-like symptoms. It is caused by the mpox virus, which is divided into different genetic groups, or clades. The virus is most commonly spread through close, prolonged physical contact. Clade 2 mpox began spreading globally in 2022, and roughly 37,500 cases have since been reported in the United States, where transmission is still occurring. Previous contact tracing has indicated that the risk of clade 2 mpox transmission during commercial air travel is low. But prior data suggested that clade 1, which began circulating in central Africa in 2023 and has resulted in roughly 150 travel-associated cases outside of Africa, might be more transmissible. The current investigation did not find evidence supporting the spread of clade 1 in an airline setting. Based on these results, the CDC discontinued routine aircraft contact tracing for all mpox clades and subclades in 2025. But public health officials continue to recommend that people with mpox avoid travel until they have fully recovered. Vaccination of at-risk groups remains an important tool for reducing transmission and disease severity, the authors said.
- The California Department of Public Health is encouraging mpox vaccination for those at risk in light of the first travel-related case of clade 1 mpox identified in San Francisco. Officials said the patient was unvaccinated and had recently traveled to a country where clade 1 mpox is circulating. The patient was hospitalized with an improving condition, officials said. Clade 1 cases are not common in the United States, but officials warn that clade 2 mpox continues to circulate in the state, with cases rising. This is the seventh clade 1 mpox case reported in California since November 2024. Clade 1 infections can be more severe than those caused by clade 2, the more common strain seen among men who have sex with men. Vaccination provides protection against both strains of mpox.
- The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) is offering vaccines and antibiotics to young people in Dorset following three recently confirmed cases of meningococcal infection (meningitis) in schoolchildren. All three patients have been discharged from the hospital, and there are no further suspected or confirmed cases to date. As a precautionary measure, 6,500 students in grades seven to 13 will be offered both antibiotics and vaccination. The three cases were confirmed as meningitis B and are the same substrain, but a different substrain to the one detected recently in Kent, UKHSA said.
- The North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services said officials are seeing more reports of Legionnaires' disease, a type of severe pneumonia, across the state. Officials said cases increased from 201 cases in 2024 to 310 last year. Most people contract the disease after inhaling Legionella bacteria from contaminated soil or water sources.
Severe malaria in early childhood tied to long-term cognitive issues -- Children who survive severe malaria may face long-term cognitive impairment and decreased academic achievement for years after infection, according to a study published late last week in JAMA. In the analysis, researchers assessed neurocognitive and academic outcomes among nearly 900 children in Uganda who had experienced severe malaria (672 children) in early childhood and 217 uninfected controls. Participants were evaluated for an average of about eight years, and up to 15 years, after their initial illness. The mean age of the participants was 11 years. The findings show that children with a history of cerebral malaria or severe malarial anemia, two of the most severe forms of malaria, had lower scores in overall cognition and math than children who had not had malaria. Attention and reading scores did not differ significantly between the two groups, and cognitive and academic scores were not significantly different between children with other forms of severe malaria and children in the control group. Cerebral malaria and severe malarial anemia are the most common forms of malaria. Previous research has shown that both cerebral malaria and severe malarial anemia are associated with cognitive impairment up to two years after initial illness. "Cerebral malaria and severe malarial anemia, which affect more than a million children every year, are not only causes of death in children, but also associated with very long-term costs in terms of a child’s thinking and their academic achievement," senior author Chandy John, MD, of Indiana University, said in a university news release. "These costs, particularly in the area of math skills, can affect their ability to do well in school, to go to college and to get a good job." In the current study, the researchers also identified that, among children with cerebral malaria or severe malarial anemia, other factors, such as acute kidney injury, elevated angiopoietin-2 (a marker of vascular dysfunction), and neurologic deficits at or after infection, were associated with long-term cognitive impairment years later. Cerebral malaria and severe malarial anemia, which affect more than a million children every year, are not only causes of death in children, but also associated with very long-term costs in terms of a child’s thinking and their academic achievement. This finding suggests that some biological processes linked to severe illness may be connected to the thinking and learning problems that can develop after infection. "Cohort studies can show an association, but they can’t prove that these illnesses caused the impairment," John said. "Instead, we can look at potential pathways in the body and the brain and see how they relate to cognition.” Malaria is a major global health threat, with an estimated 263 million cases and nearly 600,000 deaths reported in 2023—most of them in African and among children younger than five years.
‘We are worried’: Malaria mounts a comeback after slashed US funding | CIDRAP - Malaria parasites are transmitted to humans by mosquitoes. The vectors primarily bite at night. In regions where the disease is rampant, people spray the interior walls of their homes with long-acting insecticide so that they can sleep safely. Indoor residual spraying produced good results in northern Zambia, said Jean-Bertin Bukasa Kabuya, MD, MScPH, a clinical researcher at the National Health Research and Training Institute, located in the city of Ndola. But there’s no money to continue this mitigation effort, said Kabuya. Last year, the Trump administration dismantled the US Agency for International Development (USAID), forcing health ministries in countries like Zambia to cut back on malaria control and case management. USAID had been the world's largest funding agency for humanitarian aid. In its wake, 83% of its programs were canceled. An analysis by KFF, a health information nonprofit, found that 80% of USAID's malaria awards were terminated. The state department has since pivoted to the America First Global Health Strategy, which seeks to establish bilateral health agreements that prioritize the security and prosperity of the United States.As governments negotiate, sources tell CIDRAP News that some countries with high malaria burdens are struggling to fill funding gaps left by USAID and to reestablish supply chains. The state department did not respond to CIDRAP News' request for comment.These disruptions come at a critical time: The global malaria fatality rate has been growing since the COVID-19 pandemic, and there are concerns that the closure of USAID will exacerbate this trend. In northern Zambia, malaria hospitalizations are now increasing, which Kabuya said is likely due to the lack of spraying. "We are worried," he said. More than 600,000 people died of malaria in 2024, according to data from the World Health Organization (WHO). Most who die are young children living in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet dozens of countries, including the United States, have eliminated malaria through a combination of vector control, surveillance, and treatment. Just last year, the WHO declared Georgia, Suriname, and Timor-Leste as malaria-free. Every malaria death is preventable, "No kid should be dying of malaria," he said. "It's just a matter of will from the international community." That will seems to be waning as wealthy countries, including the United Kingdom and Germany, are cutting their international aid budgets. But shuttering USAID had the largest effect, as the agency's budget—$43.8 billion in 2023—far eclipsed contributions of other countries.The United States has continued supporting some malaria programs through other line items. The President's Malaria Initiative, which had been under the auspices of USAID, received level funding in FY 2026, at $795 million. And the United States pledged $4.6 billion to the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria; the money will help fund the international nonprofit through 2029. But malaria transmission didn't take a break just because funding paused. Eisele is among several sources who told CIDRAP News they anticipate a resurgence of malaria cases and fatalities.
Malaria rebound spurs AI-driven hunt for parasite genes linked to deadly cases -- Despite decades of efforts to combat it, malaria remains a major global health threat. According to the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2025 World Malaria Report, about 282 million cases and approximately 610,000 deaths were recorded worldwide in 2024. Recently, there has been a slight rise in the number of cases again. Children under the age of 5 in sub-Saharan Africa are particularly affected.While many millions of lives have been saved since 2000, progress is slowing down. Reasons for this include drug and insecticide resistance, the effects of climate change, and weak health systems. The WHO stresses that increased international efforts and innovative approaches are urgently needed to curb malaria in the long term."In view of stagnating progress and new challenges, it is clear how important new scientific approaches are. A key factor here is the use of modern data analysis.The malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum spends part of its life cycle in the bloodstream of humans. It invades red blood cells and uses them as a hiding place and site of reproduction. In this process, it attaches special parasite proteins, known as PfEMP1 (Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1), to the surface of the red blood cells. While these proteins make the infected cells recognizable to the human immune system, they also fulfill a crucial survival function. Without them, the infected blood cells would enter the spleen and be filtered out due to their altered properties.The PfEMP1 proteins ensure that the infected red blood cells stick to the walls of small blood vessels, thereby evading the spleen's filtering function. The downside is that immune cells can recognize the infected red blood cells by the PfEMP1 proteins.To survive in humans for a longer period of time despite this, the parasite employs a clever trick: it can swap out the PfEMP1 proteins, much like a quick-change artist who constantly alters his appearance with a new outfit. This means the immune system must continually re-recognize and combat the pathogen. The malaria parasite can swap out the PfEMP1 proteins because its genome encodes about 60 variants of this protein in its var genes. It can therefore switch between many variants, though it produces only one protein variant at a time, which it places on the surface of the red blood cell. Dr. Anna Bachmann, head of a laboratory group at BNITM, is researching the var genes of the malaria parasite. "We are particularly interested in why some infections are mild while others are life-threatening," says the biologist. "One decisive factor is the PfEMP1 proteins on the surface of infected red blood cells. Depending on which variant the parasite produces, these cells bind to the walls of small blood vessels with varying degrees of strength." Some variants cause infected blood cells to accumulate in vital organs such as the brain, obstruct blood flow and trigger a strong immune response. This can lead to serious complications. Other variants bind less strongly and are more commonly associated with milder disease progression. "If we understand which variants are found where and when in the body, we can better understand how different disease courses arise," says Bachmann. To find out which var genes a malaria parasite actually uses during an infection, Bachmann and her colleagues from the BNITM's Data Science Center sequenced the RNA from blood samples taken from malaria patients. In other words, they analyze the transcripts of the currently active genes. This is where the challenge begins: The malaria parasite's var genes are among the most complex and variable gene families in existence. They differ greatly between individual parasites and encode many different domains. During sequencing, the researchers do not obtain complete var gene sequences, but only fragments of them. They must then piece these fragments together to form complete var genes, much like solving a jigsaw puzzle. Conventional analysis methods quickly reach their limits here. Bachmann and her team have improved bioinformatic approaches that enable them to correctly assemble the multitude of short sequence fragments and assign them to the individual var genes. In this way, the scientists reveal which variants are active in an infection.
Quick takes: Human prion-disease drug, malaria drug for babies, polio in DR Congo and Sudan | CIDRAP
- For the first time, investigators are conducting a clinical trial of the safety and dosing of a prion-disease drug candidate in people, the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard announced yesterday. The phase 1 trial will enroll 15 symptomatic patients diagnosed as having a prion disease and 15 controls. The drug is a small interfering molecule that binds to and snips RNA molecules so that cells make less of the prion protein. Prion diseases are neurodegenerative disorders caused by the accumulation of misfolded prion protein in the brain. There are currently no cures, and the diseases are fatal within months or years after symptom onset. In a preprint study last month, the scientists showed that a single dose of the treatment reduced prion protein in mice by 49% and increased survival by 64%.
- Artemether-lumefantrine (Coartem Baby), the first malaria treatment for newborns and young infants, has been granted World Health Organization (WHO) prequalification, according to Novartis. The drug developer says it is making the treatment available primarily on a not-for-profit basis in areas endemic for the mosquito-borne illness. Known as Riamet Baby in some countries, Coartem Baby was developed in collaboration with the Medicines for Malaria Venture. Prequalification is a WHO process evaluating the quality, safety, and efficacy of treatments.
- This week, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative reported three circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases, one in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and two in Sudan. The DRC case occurred in Maniema province, with onset of paralysis on February 14, 2026, for a total of four cases this year and six in 2025. The Sudan infections were reported in North Kordofan and Red Sea states, with paralysis onsets of November 8, 2025, and January 20, 2026, respectively. In 2025, 12 cVDPV2 cases were reported in Sudan, with one so far this year.
- Vaccine maker Moderna announced yesterday that it has begun dosing participants in a phase 3 randomized clinical trial of its H5 pandemic flu vaccine candidate, mRNA-108. The trial, which is expected to include roughly 4,000 participants in the United States and United Kingdom, will investigate the safety and immunogenicity of the mRNA-based vaccine for avian flu in adults, with a focus on those over age 65 and poultry workers. "H5 influenza, or bird flu, remains a pandemic threat. The start of our Phase 3 trial for an H5 influenza vaccine marks a significant milestone in our ongoing efforts to strengthen global pandemic preparedness," Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a company press release. The trial is being funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations.
- The Ineos Oxford Institute for antimicrobial research (IOI) has launched a new antifungal drug discovery program. The IOI program aims to establish a pipeline for discovering and advancing new antifungal agents and next-generation antifungal therapies that are less prone to resistance. There are currently only four major classes of antifungal agents in clinical use, and resistance to those agents is rising globally. Antifungal-resistant infections are estimated to play a role in more than 3.8 million deaths a year. “We need to treat infectious fungi with the same urgency as disease causing bacteria,” IOI director Kevin Pethe said in an IOI news release. “The limited number of antifungal drugs that currently exist are starting to fail, and we need to build capacity in fungal research.”
- Alabama is seeing a sharp increase in cases of untreated syphilis, AL.com reports. Statistics from the Alabama Department of Public Health show that rates of late latent syphilis, an asymptomatic stage of the disease that occurs when the infection goes untreated for more than a year, rose by 58% from 2022 to 2025. State health officials say a shortage of benzathine penicillin G, the medication used to treat syphilis patients and their partners, could lead to a further increase in latent syphilis cases in the state in the coming years.
3 more H9N2 avian flu cases confirmed in China - The Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection (CHP) today reported three more H9N2 avian flu cases on mainland China, all in children under the age of 6 years. Last week, CHP recorded two cases.While the CHP gave few details on the newly confirmed case-patients, the World Health Organization (WHO) included the three most recent cases in a new avian flu report. The first patient, a 5-year-old boy, was from Guangdong province, with symptom onset on February 23. He developed severe pneumonia and was hospitalized but is now discharged.A girl from Yunnan province with symptom onset on March 3 and a boy from Jiangxi province who first became ill on March 20 were also infected. Both had only mild symptoms, and both are 2 years old. According to the WHO, the older boy and the girl had exposure to poultry. The family of the 2-year-old boy reportedly visited a market where poultry had tested positive for H9 viruses. Since 2015, a total of 162 cases of human infection with H9N2 avian flu, including two deaths (both in people with underlying conditions), have been reported to the WHO in the Western Pacific Region, the organization said. Of the 162 cases, 159 were in China.
More California marine mammals confirmed to have H5N1 avian flu, as USDA tracks poultry outbreaks in Midwest - Eleven more marine mammals have been tested and confirmed to have H5N1 avian flu in an outbreak that spans four counties in California. The outbreak total now stands at 58 mammals, including 57sea lions and one otter. All but seven are from San Mateo County. The outbreak started in February and marked the first H5N1 detection in marine mammals in California. Seals at the state park were observed with abnormal respirations, tremors, and neurologic symptoms. In other avian flu news, four commercial poultry facilities, one each in North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Georgia have reported new avian flu outbreaks. The outbreak in Minnesota’s Big Stone County involves 62,900 birds on a commercial turkey farm. Commercial poultry detections have slowed this month compared with March, with 28 confirmed outbreaks in 20 commercial and eight backyard flocks. Roughly 700,000 birds have been affected in the past 30 days. Wild bird detections have also dropped, with 13 notices from the US Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) in the past 10 days. Of note, three Bald Eagles in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New York were confirmed to have the virus, as were four birds (gulls and a Red-necked phalarope) from San Mateo County, California, the same county with marine mammal detections.
Delaware becomes 37th state to detect CWD within its borders With Delaware reporting its first detection of chronic wasting disease (CWD) yesterday, the fatal neurodegenerative disease has now been found in 37 US states. The case was detected in a wild white-tailed deer harvested in Sussex County as part of routine surveillance efforts, the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC) said in a news release. The infection was confirmed by the National Veterinary Services Laboratory (NVSL). A second deer sampled in the same county during the hunting season has tested positive at the Pennsylvania Animal Diagnostic Laboratory System, and the result is awaiting confirmation by the NVSL, the DNREC said. Sussex is Delaware’s southernmost county. Since 2003, the DNREC has conducted annual CWD surveillance, testing a total of 12,938 samples. The positive samples were two out of more than 600 samples from across the state tested during the most recent hunting season. Immediately after the CWD-positive confirmation, DNREC activated its CWD response plan. “DNREC established a CWD Management Zone based on Wildlife Management Zones within a 5-mile radius around where the deer was harvested and will begin cluster sampling in that area to look for any additional cases nearby,” the release said. Next hunting season, the DNREC will require deer check-in at wildlife health-check stations for testing within the management area and may pass legislation aimed at limiting CWD spread in wild deer. CWD, which is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, affects cervids such as deer, moose, and elk. It spreads via direct contact, environmental contamination, and vertical transmission from doe to fawn in utero or during birth. No treatments or vaccines are available. While CWD isn’t known to infect humans, health authorities warn hunters against consuming meat from sick or infected deer and urge cervid testing in CWD-endemic areas.
31 sloths imported from South America die in Florida warehouse ahead of ‘Sloth World’ opening— Dozens of sloths bound for Orlando's Sloth World died after many were left in an unheated warehouse, according to a Captive Wildlife Report from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. Details of the 2024 and 2025 deaths of the 31 exotic animals are included in an August 2025 report of an unannounced routine inspection of the warehouse that was holding the sloths. The sloths died before they were to be sent to the attraction on International Drive, which has yet to open. Peter Bandre is listed as the licensee for Sanctuary World Imports, which was housing the sloths at the warehouse. Bandre told FWC officials that in 2024, he placed orders for 21 sloths (15 2-toed sloths and six 3-toed sloths) from Guyana, as well as 10 2-toed sloths from Peru. "The 21 sloths died due to, what Mr. Bandre called, a 'Cold Stun,'" the report says. Bandre said the warehouse was not properly set up and ready to receive sloths during the cold period in Florida in December 2024. He added that his partner had told him the building was ready. He told FWC when he got to the warehouse ahead of the arrival of 21 sloths, "the building had no water and no electricity. It was not ready to receive the sloths but it was too late to cancel the shipment." Bandre said multiple space heaters were purchased but had to be powered with an extension cord from a different building, which tripped the fuse and shut down. "It appears that at least for one night, the sloths were in the cold building without heat," the report says. "There was no one present overnight to correct this." On Dec. 22, 2024, the minimal recorded temperature was 46 degrees with the average for the day at 56 degrees, the report says. Bandre said months later, 10 sloths from Peru arrived on Feb. 19, 2025, but two were dead on arrival and the remainder "appeared emaciated and in very poor health." The remaining eight sloths from Peru died.
Monkeys in Gibraltar self-medicate with soil to help them digest tourists' junk food -- Monkeys in a tourism hotspot have learned that swallowing dirt can quell the upset stomachs caused by overconsumption of sweet and salty snacks fed to them by holidaymakers, a new University of Cambridge-led study suggests. Troops of macaques living on Gibraltar—the only free-ranging monkey population in Europe—have been scientifically observed for the first time regularly engaging in geophagy, the practice of intentionally ingesting soil. The work appears in Scientific Reports. Researchers monitoring monkey groups across the Rock of Gibraltar have tracked instances of geophagy, and found that animals in frequent contact with tourists eat far more dirt, and that dirt-eating rates are higher during peak holiday season. The scientists believe that the chocolate, chips and ice cream offered by or stolen from tourists—a substantial part of some Gibraltar macaques' diets—are disrupting gut microbiome composition in the animals and leading to changes in their culture. Eating soil may help rebalance monkey stomachs by providing bacteria and minerals absent from junk food, say researchers, and it is likely to help line the gut and soothe or prevent irritation caused by too much sugar and fat. "Foods brought by tourists and eaten by Gibraltar's macaques are extremely rich in calories, sugar, salt and dairy," said Dr. Sylvain Lemoine, a biological anthropologist from Cambridge's Department of Archaeology, who led the study. "This is completely unlike the foods typically consumed by the species, such as herbs, leaves, seeds and the occasional insect." "Humans evolved to seek out and store energy-dense fats and sugars to survive periods of scarcity, leading us to crave high-calorie junk food," said Lemoine, who founded the Gibraltar Macaques Project. The availability of human junk food could trigger this same evolutionary mechanism in macaques. Soil-eating may allow them to keep consuming food that has negative digestive effects, but is as delicious for them as it is for us. The emergence of this behavior in macaques is both a functional and cultural one, like nutcracking in chimps, except it is driven entirely by proximity to humans." Gibraltar's macaque population averaged 12 soil-eating "events" a week, at the high end of recorded geophagy frequency in primates, and comparable to chimpanzees and lemurs, which eat dirt for minerals and to mitigate against plant toxins.
Plastics found in tomato and wheat crops stunt growth, study finds - A study investigating microplastics (MPs) and nanoplastics (NPs) in agricultural settings has found they reduced plant growth and entered plant tissues through the soil, raising new concerns about food safety and human exposure. The study, led by Griffith University, tested how micro- and nanoplastics behaved in soil using realistic conditions using particle types, surface properties, sizes and concentrations representative of those found in agricultural systems. The research is published in the journal Environmental Science and Pollution Research. Using wheat and tomato plants, the team, led by Dr. Shima Ziajahromi from Griffith's Australian Rivers Institute, found MPs reduced plant growth and chlorophyll content, with fiber-shaped plastics (originating from synthetic textile) having the most effects. This suggested potentially serious implications for food production."We also found that plants can trap MPs in the soil, reducing their movement in the environment, but this may also lead to accumulation around roots," Dr. Ziajahromi said."Critically, we found NPs were taken up into plant tissues and transported within the plant, including its leaves. These findings demonstrate that agricultural soil is not just a sink for plastics, but a pathway into the food systems—meaning they could end up on our plates."This highlights the need for improved environmental management practices, targeted mitigation strategies, and evidence-based regulations to control plastic inputs and reduce risks to food systems and human health." Unlike previous laboratory studies that often used unrealistically high concentrations or pristine plastics, the research led by the Griffith team used aged plastics, realistic particle sizes, actual polymer types, and concentrations typically found in biosolids and agricultural soils. The key findings showed:
- Plants reduced the mobility of microplastics in soil by trapping larger particles in their root systems
- Fibrous microplastics (PET fibers) caused the most harmful effects, especially in tomato plants
- Mixtures of micro- and nanoplastics were more toxic than single particles, suggesting possible additive or synergistic effects
- Aged nanoplastics could be taken up by both wheat and tomato, moving into the root and stem tissue—and even the leaf tissue in tomatoes.
"These results present potential risks to food safety, emphasizing the need for new regulatory approaches informed by real-world plastic exposure scenarios," Dr. Ziajahromi said.
Toxins from Great Salt Lake dust are absorbed by plants, soils and human bodies - Shrinking water levels at the Great Salt Lake are not just about Utah's water supply—they may pose a serious risk to public health. New research from a team at Utah State University and the University of Utah documents the ways metal-laden dust from the drying lakebed may find its way into human bodies—directly through ingestion and indirectly through food systems. The paper is published in the journal Atmospheric Environment. The team found that leafy vegetables exposed to Great Salt Lake dust contained elevated levels of elements like arsenic and uranium, even after thorough washing. The research documented how metals in dust could adhere to crops and evaluated whether they could be absorbed by roots. "Dust is an acute health hazard, but rarely measured for composition or bioavailability of potentially toxic components," said Brahney, who runs a dust-monitoring network across the Western U.S. "This new research takes our understanding one step further, measuring how toxic-laden dust could infiltrate Utahns' lives in pervasive ways." Toxins can be taken into the body directly through ingestion, as well as through inhalation and through the skin. More than one-third of the modeled exposure scenarios showed that exposure to toxic metals surpassed levels of concern for children. Dust carrying heavy metals can also be deposited onto crops, where it can be incorporated into plant tissues through leaves or roots. "We report what happens in the leaves when you apply dust straight to the leaves and through the soil," said Fernandez, a research professor in the U Department of Geology & Geophysics. "When you do it through the soil, it doesn't seem to do much. But yes—when you apply to the leaves—for uranium, lithium, beryllium, arsenic and antimony." Dust-exposed cabbage leaves exhibited elevated levels for those elements, but that wasn't the case for selenium, strontium, thallium and molybdenum, whose levels were in line with the control group. Lakebed dust would be difficult, if not impossible, to avoid. Within the three most highly populated counties bordering the lake—Salt Lake, Weber and Davis—there are approximately 40 community gardens, countless backyard gardens and small farms, and around a dozen farmers' markets where locally grown vegetables are distributed. "Growing food and home gardening is an important part of Utah culture," Brahney said. "We like to get our hands in the dirt. So we need to make sure the atmosphere isn't adding contaminants to our local soils and water that we depend upon." Sediments on the dry playa around Great Salt Lake have been contaminated by a century of mining, waste disposal, oil refining and other human activities.
Bill to ease clean air rules for prescribed fire clears House - The House passed legislation Wednesday to ease air pollution regulations around prescribed burns, which land management agencies use to reduce the likelihood of future wildfires. Republican supporters, including bill sponsor Gabe Evans (R-Colo.), said the measure would help communities that sometimes fall out of attainment with the Clean Air Act for using the controlled burns. Many Democrats opposed the bill, H.R. 6387, which passed on a 220-198 vote. Led by Energy and Commerce ranking Democrat Frank Pallone of New Jersey, they said it would go much further than advertised, allowing clean-air exemptions for any pollution occurring during weather events like droughts or extreme heat. Ultimately, they said, the bill won’t encourage more prescribed fire but will give industries a pass to pollute more due to more declarations of “exceptional events” that don’t count toward air standard violations.
Our efforts to halt global forest loss aren't working: New research - The loss of our forests is one of the biggest environmental challenges of our time. Forests are key to curbing carbon emissions and protecting the plants, animals, and humans that call Earth home.However, we're losing our forests at an alarming rate. Our new study shows we've lost roughly 300 million hectares over the past 11 years. However, it's unclear how much of this forest has since been restored.Either way, we're losing a significant amount of forest despite efforts to protect it through certification, protection, and other conservation schemes.The European Union has introduced policies aimed at eliminating products and supply chains that contribute to forest loss. Examples include palm oil, soy, coffee, cocoa, timber, and rubber.Halting forest loss is also a major focus of international declarations, such as the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests and Land Use. This declaration, which more than 140 countries endorsed at the COP26 conference in 2021, aims to strengthen global efforts to reduce deforestation and land degradation.Over the past three decades, the international community has launched forest management certification schemes to protect our forests. These include those developed by the Forest Stewardship Council and the Program for the Endorsement of Forest Certification.These are voluntary, market-based schemes meant to ensure forests are being properly managed. These schemes aren't state-controlled, but rely on the market to create incentives to pressure companies to comply. They do this by getting accredited auditors to independently assess forest management practices against approved or endorsed forest management standards. These schemes also encourage companies to buy products sourced from certified forests. About 10% of the world's forests are currently certified under these schemes, equal to more than 400 million hectares.Protected areas may also help curb forest loss. Protected areas are defined locations designed to help conserve nature. Globally, roughly 18% of our forests are in protected areas.These two strategies should be reducing, or even stopping, forest loss. But they're failing to do so at a global scale. In our new study, we measured how much forest each country lost each year, due to fire or other causes, from 2013 to 2023. An example of a fire-related cause is a severe fire that engulfs the tree canopy. Forest loss as a result of logging for agricultural or urban development is an example of a non-fire cause. We then compared this to how much forest area is certified or protected in each country.Between 2013 and 2023, we estimate the amount of forest in protected areas increased from about 868 million hectares to 990 million hectares.Despite this, our study shows that over that period, between 21 million and 32 million hectares of forest were lost each year. This tracks with earlier research finding a similar, and no less alarming, trend between 2002 and 2011. Our study also found no evidence linking more certification and protected areas with less forest loss at a country level. Between 2013 and 2023, nearly half of global forest loss happened in four countries. These include Russia, Brazil, Canada, and the United States. This was mainly caused by fire in countries north of the equator, and non-fire causes in tropical regions such as Brazil.
More than 3 000 residents evacuated as wildfires spread toward town in Iwate, Japan - 3 YouTube videos - Over 3 000 residents were ordered to evacuate in Otsuchi, Iwate Prefecture, Japan, by April 25, 2026, as two wildfires ignited on April 22 expanded across mountainous terrain and burned hundreds of hectares. Fire damage to structures has been confirmed as suppression efforts continue. Wildfires burning in the Kozuchi and Kirikiri districts of Otsuchi, Iwate Prefecture, approximately 8 km (5 miles) apart, expanded across forested mountainous terrain through April 24, advancing toward residential zones and prompting a widening evacuation perimeter. The fire had scorched 400 ha (988 acres) in early reports to approximately 730 ha (1 800 acres) by April 25, as dry conditions and wind sustained the fire’s spread. Authorities expanded evacuation orders from more than 2 500 residents to over 3 200 people, affecting about 1 500 households. YouTube video At least 329 residents were housed in emergency shelters as of April 25, while others relocated outside the evacuation zone. The affected area represents a significant share of Otsuchi’s population of roughly 11 000. Fire damage has been recorded near residential zones, with at least 7–8 buildings destroyed. No fatalities or injuries have been reported in connection with the fires. Around 700 personnel have been deployed to fight the blazes, supported by aerial suppression, including helicopters operated by the Japan Self-Defense Forces. Crews are conducting repeated water drops and ground containment operations in steep terrain, where access remains limited and fire activity persists.
Major Georgia wildfires destroy 143 structures amid severe drought - 2 YouTube videos Two major wildfires in southeast Georgia have burned over 16 000 ha (40 000 acres) and destroyed 143 structures by April 25, 2026, with federal fire officials reporting extreme fire behavior near the Florida line. The Highway 82 Fire in Brantley County and the Pineland Road Fire in Clinch and Echols counties remained 10% contained, with evacuations and road closures in effect. The National Interagency Fire Center listed the Highway 82 Fire at 3 062 ha (7 567 acres), with 108 structures lost and 298 personnel assigned, in its April 25 report issued at 07:30 MDT (13:30 UTC). Since then, the fire has reportedly grown to 3 720 ha (9 200 acres). The Pineland Road Fire was listed at 12 940 ha (31 976 acres), with 35 structures lost and 184 personnel assigned. Both fires were producing extreme behavior. Highway 82 generated wind-driven runs, long-range spotting, and torching, while Pineland Road produced wind-driven runs, torching, and spotting. NIFC said structures, railroad infrastructure, and critical infrastructure were threatened. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency for 91 counties on April 22 and ordered state agencies, including the Georgia Forestry Commission, to mobilize for response operations. The Georgia Forestry Commission said the State Forester issued a 30-day outdoor burn ban across the same 91 counties, the first mandatory burn ban in the agency’s history. “We need everyone to take this situation seriously,” said Georgia State Forester and Georgia Forestry Commission (GFC) Director Johnny Sabo. “GFC’s wildland firefighters are responding daily to a near-record number of wildfires. It’s critical to remember that just one spark or ember can ignite a life-threatening wildfire.” Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency directed residents to follow local emergency guidance, evacuate when ordered, and reduce smoke exposure by staying indoors or using an N95 mask during smoky conditions. The agency also referred residents to Georgia Forestry Commission updates and a live fire-response map for local fire status. The fires were burning during one of the most extensive drought episodes recorded across the Southeast since U.S. Drought Monitor records began in 2000. NIDIS reported on April 16 that 96.83% of the Southeast was in Moderate to Exceptional Drought and 81.75% in Severe to Exceptional Drought, with regional precipitation deficits dating back to July 2025. Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina recorded their driest September–March periods since records began in 1895, according to NIDIS. Long-term dryness increased available fuels and fire potential across the Southeast. “The extreme drought conditions across Georgia are putting agriculture and forestry at significant risk, and I want to strongly encourage all Georgians to do the right thing and adhere to the Georgia Forestry Commission’s burn ban while these conditions persist,” said Georgia Agriculture Commissioner Tyler J. Harper. YouTube video According to NWS Jacksonville, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected to continue across parts of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida. The office forecast isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms through Sunday, April 26 as a front moved southward. Florida also had several active fires listed in the April 25 NIFC report. The Railroad Fire, managed by the Florida Forest Service about 16 km (10 miles) north of Palatka, had burned 1 903 ha (4 703 acres) and was 65% contained, with active fire behavior and railroad infrastructure threatened. Other Florida fires listed by NIFC included the 2 630 ha (6 499 acres) 139 Fire, the 1 021 ha (2 523 acres) Sargent Fire, the 809 ha (2 000 acres) Cow Creek Fire, and the 3 885 ha (9 600 acres) MM 45 Broward 06 Fire, which was listed as 100% contained.
Violent EF4 tornado injures 10 in Enid, Oklahoma, emergency declared in Garfield and Kay counties - 3 YouTube videos - A preliminary EF4 tornado injured 10 people in Enid, Oklahoma, on April 23, 2026, according to NWS Norman. The tornado reached estimated peak winds of 274 km/h (170 mph), tracked 15.3 km (9.5 miles), and damaged parts of Vance Air Force Base and the Gray Ridge neighborhood. This was the first EF4 tornado to impact Garfield County since April 1991. An EF4 tornado developed southwest of Vance Air Force Base at 20:11 CDT on April 23 and tracked northeast across the Enid area before dissipating at 20:48 CDT, according to a preliminary survey by the National Weather Service (NWS) in Norman. The tornado remained on the ground for 37 minutes, carving a 15.3 km (9.5 miles) path, injuring 10 people, and causing extensive structural damage with no fatalities reported. The NWS Norman identified the tornado as the strongest of six confirmed during the April 23 severe weather event. Four additional tornadoes were classified EFU and one EF1 in the same survey. Survey teams mapped multiple pockets of EF4 damage across Enid. The most severe impacts were concentrated in a residential neighborhood east of US-81 and in a second corridor near South 30th Street and East Rupe Road, where structures sustained high-end damage consistent with EF4 intensity. Roof systems were removed from homes, commercial buildings were heavily damaged or flattened, and utility infrastructure was disrupted along segments of the track. The tornado also affected sections of Vance Air Force Base and adjacent residential areas, where debris fields extended across roads and properties. Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management (OEM) reported approximately 40 homes with some level of damage in Enid and Garfield County. Northbound and southbound US-81 remained closed between Fox Drive and Wheat Capital Road due to downed power lines, with approximately 2 600 power outages statewide, mostly in Garfield County. Governor Kevin Stitt signed Executive Order 2026-17 on April 24, declaring a disaster emergency for Garfield and Kay counties after severe weather, tornadoes, straight-line winds, and flooding caused major damage. The order remains in effect for 30 days.
Simple ocean-based model forecasts a powerful El Niño, over 2 °C warmer than normal - For decades, scientists have worked to improve predictions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate powerhouse that can cause droughts, flooding, marine heat waves, and more around the world. Researchers from the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa have published a study in Geophysical Research Letters showing that they can skillfully predict El Niño and La Niña 15 months ahead of time using only observations of the ocean surface temperature and height—no complex climate model needed."Many of today's leading forecast systems are either computationally expensive dynamical climate models, statistical models that rely on ENSO knowledge built over decades of research, or AI approaches that require large amounts of training data and are often harder to interpret physically," said Yuxin Wang, lead author of the study and postdoctoral researcher with the UH Sea Level Center in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST)."Our simpler, data-driven empirical climate model, built only from ocean observations related to two core climate memories known for over 50 years, achieves ENSO forecast skill comparable to, and in some cases better than, many of today's more complex climate models and leading AI-based approaches." Klaus Wyrtki, a pioneering oceanographer at SOEST in the 1960s through 1990s, was the first to show that sea level changes can reveal heat build-up in the tropical Pacific, which led him to propose using tide gauge observations to predict El Niño. Klaus Hasselmann, a German oceanographer and Nobel laureate, showed that the ocean can retain a memory of past climate conditions through large-scale temperature patterns, including sea surface temperature patterns outside the tropical Pacific that can still influence ENSO. Building on these two principles, the SOEST team developed the "Wyrtki-CSLIM" computer model to predict ENSO, which they named in honor of Wyrtki's insights that eventually motivated creating the UH Sea Level Center to operate tide gauges around the world. Today, these same tide gauges are used to calibrate satellite measurements of the sea surface height, which made this study possible. The team trained their model using ocean observations that correspond directly to the two forms of climate memory originally suggested by Wyrtki and Hasselmann. The first is sea level in the equatorial Pacific, which reflects heat stored in the upper ocean and represents "Wyrtki memory." The second is global sea surface temperature, which captures "Hasselmann memory," or the lingering influence of faraway temperature anomalies that can contribute to El Niño or La Niña developing months later. The researchers tested how well this model could predict the Niño3.4 index, a standard measure used to track El Niño and La Niña. To do that, they ran the model on six decades of past climate conditions and asked how well it would have predicted what happened next in the real world. "We found that it can predict El Niño and La Niña surprisingly well, with useful skill up to about 15 months ahead," said Wang. "Accurately predicting ENSO more than a year in advance is important because it can provide early warning, allowing communities, governments, and resource managers to take actions and make adaptations to reduce the potential impacts from El Niño and La Niña."
US climate sees decline in both hot and cold extreme temperatures since 1899, researchers find - A comprehensive new study extending the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) record back to 1899 finds that both hot and cold temperature extremes across the contiguous United States have declined over the past 127 years. The research, performed by Dr. John R. Christy, Alabama State Climatologist (retired) and professor of atmospheric and Earth science at The University of Alabama in Huntsville, analyzed more than 40 million daily temperature observations to provide the most complete long-term view to date of U.S. extreme heat and cold. The paper is published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology.Drawing on 1,211 of the best weather stations in the lower 48 states, many of which required extensive reconstruction from nearby correlated stations, the study evaluates when and where the nation's hottest and coldest days occurred, how often daily records were set and how the frequency of heat waves and cold waves has evolved since the late 19th century.Building the dataset took years of tedious effort, requiring manually sifting through thousands of original forms to fill in the large gaps present in the NOAA datafiles currently available to researchers."It was a labor of love and curiosity," Christy says. He still retains his own observations started in the 1960s in Fresno, Calif. "This paper demonstrates that Fresno is a prime example of how growing cities have skewed temperature records over the decades with nighttime minima now over 5°F warmer in the city than experienced by surrounding stations."Extreme summer heat has not increased. Metrics such as the hottest annual temperatures, number of daily heat records and heat wave days show modest declines since 1899. The most intense nationwide heat events remain concentrated in the 1925–1954 period, especially the 1930s.Extreme cold has decreased sharply. Since the 1990s, the frequency and severity of record-cold winter temperatures have dropped substantially. The study notes that this decline may reflect both atmospheric warming and the influence of human development around weather stations, which tend to raise nighttime minimum temperatures in particular.Overall, extremes have become less extreme. The difference between the hottest and coldest annual temperatures for all stations has narrowed by about 6°F over the full record, indicating a long-term reduction in temperature volatility.Regional patterns matter. Western U.S. regions have seen substantial increases in heat wave activity in the past decade, while central and eastern regions show long-term declines. When averaged nationally, these opposing trends offset each other. Natural variability remains dominant. The magnitude of early-20th-century heat extremes—especially the 1930s—continues to exceed recent events, underscoring the strong role of natural climate variability in shaping U.S. temperature extremes.The study also demonstrates how this dataset can be used to evaluate public claims about extreme weather. For example, while the National Climate Assessment #5 states that heat waves have increased since the 1960s, Christy's analysis finds that the national trend is small and statistically insignificant, though increases are evident in parts of the West. However, when extended back to 1899, heat extremes have actually declined nationwide."This dataset allows us to ask—and answer—questions about extreme heat and cold with more confidence, given the amount of data available now," Christy notes. "Understanding how extremes have changed over time is essential for interpreting (dispassionately) how today's events actually compare with the past."
Major 7.7-magnitude earthquake strikes off Japan, prompting tsunami alerts -- A powerful earthquake struck off the northern Japanese coast, measured at a magnitude of 7.7 by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The earthquake prompted a tsunami warning, with waves of up to 2½ feet reported. Authorities had warned waves could reach as high as 10 feet, but no significant damage or injuries were reported. Residents of the affected region were urged to stay away from coastal areas, while tens of thousands of people were told to go to higher ground. Japan’s Meteorological Agency issued an advisory for a slightly increased risk of a “potential mega-quake” for the country's north in the coming days. There was a 1% chance for a mega-quake, compared to a 0.1% chance during normal times, officials said. No abnormalities were reported at the Fukushima Daiichi, Fukushima Daini and other nuclear power plants, their operator said. The U.N. nuclear watchdog said it had also been informed by Japan of no abnormalities at nuclear facilities. There is no tsunami expected in California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska or the Canadian province of British Columbia, the U.S. National Tsunami Warning Center said.
X2.5 solar flare erupts at 08:13 UTC, second X-class event of April 24 - 2 YouTube videos - An X2.5 solar flare erupted from Active Region 4419 at 08:13 UTC on April 24, 2026, marking the second X-class event within hours after an earlier X2.4 flare at 01:07 UTC. The event started at 08:01 UTC and ended at 08:18 UTC. A large coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 1 869 km/s was associated with the event, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. This event was also associated with a 10 cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) from 08:09 to 08:15 UTC, with peak flux of 570 sfu. Such bursts are associated with short-duration radio interference capable of affecting radar systems, satellite communications, and navigation signals, including GPS. Radio frequencies were estimated to be most affected over the Middle East at the time of the flare. Earlier the same day, an X2.4 solar flare erupted from Active Region 4419, peaking at 01:07 UTC. According to observational analysis based on coronagraph imagery (NASA/SDO and associated datasets), the event produced a CME directed away from Earth due to the region’s position near the Sun’s west limb. The X2.4 flare was accompanied by a 10 cm Radio Burst lasting approximately 6 minutes, with a peak flux of 570 sfu. Active Region 4419 exhibits a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, supporting repeated flare production. The region generated multiple M-class flares during the preceding 24-hour period, including events associated with CMEs and Type II and Type IV radio emissions. Additional activity from Active Region 4420, also classified as beta-gamma-delta, added to the eruptive output during this period. According to the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), one CME associated with earlier activity is expected to produce a glancing influence near Earth on April 26.
Strange bedfellows oppose mining rule revamp for US forestland -The Forest Service for the first time in more than 50 years is proposing to update its mining regulations, and so far neither the mining sector nor conservation groups are happy.The agency is proposing to revamp a 1974 rule to clarify which project developers would need to submit “plans of operations,” a package of documents and maps that outline the details of a project from exploration to reclamation and monitoring, lay out the environmental implications and are subject to public comment.Currently, the Forest Service requires plans for projects that “cause significant disturbance.” Under the proposal, the agency is proposing to only require full operation plans from projects that impact more than 5 acres, involve more than just exploration, and would violate protections for things like sacred sites or endangered species.The changes, which have been in the works since 2018, are necessary to rein in the hours federal staffers spend reviewing thousands of mining plans, some of which affect only a few acres, the Forest Service said in its proposal. The rule change is also meant to align agency regulations with Bureau of Land Management practices.
3,500 gallons of crude corn oil spill into Mississippi River near Red Wing ADM facility - A barge spilled up to 3,500 gallons of crude corn oil into the Mississippi River at a Red Wing facility, and a multi-agency response was deployed to contain the material. City officials say the Red Wing Fire Department responded to the ADM riverfront facility just after noon on Monday after receiving a report of a product spill. The crude corn oil appeared on the water as a yellow-orange substance. Current estimates indicate that 3,000 to 3,500 gallons may have entered the river. ADM staff had already placed a containment boom around the barge to prevent material from drifting downstream before fire crews arrived. The local emergency response group responded to help strengthen containment and begin cleanup. Fire crews assisted with placing additional booms downstream to capture material and supported the Goodhue County Sheriff's Office. The Minnesota State Duty Officer, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, and Goodhue County Emergency Management were also notified. Clean Harbors has been engaged to manage product removal and cleanup. A joint statement from the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, the Minnesota Department of Health and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources said all three agencies are "committed to protecting our state's environment, wildlife, and the health of all Minnesotans. On Monday, the MPCA became aware of a vegetable oil leak that occurred near the U.S. Highway 63 bridge in Red Wing on the Mississippi River. This produced a sheen of 50'x500' along the river. The source has been determined to be a barge that is leaking after oil came out of a hatch. The barge has taken measures to contain and collect the vegetable oil." The agencies said there is no immediate risk to the public. The scene has been turned over to ADM and Clean Harbors for continued mitigation.
Trump Administration Could Spare Funding for Most Hydrogen Hubs: Report | RBN Energy -Federal funding for five of the seven regional hydrogen hubs and other energy-related projects that had been in line for termination could instead be preserved following a review by the Trump administration, according to Bloomberg, which cited a 39-page list of about 2,000 projects the Department of Energy said it plans to “retain or modify.” The DOE announced $7.56 billion in project cancellations in October, which included two hub projects: California’s Alliance for Renewable Clean Hydrogen Energy Systems (ARCHES; #1 in table and map below) and the Pacific Northwest Hydrogen Hub (PNWH2; #7), which included projects in Washington, Oregon and Montana. News reports at the time indicated the DOE was preparing additional cuts of more than $20 billion, including the five other hydrogen hubs that now appear to have their funding preserved — the Appalachia Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub (ARCH2; #2), the Heartland Regional Hub (#3), the HyVelocity Hub (#4), the Mid-Atlantic Clean Hydrogen Hub (#5), and the Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen (#6). We have listed the funding for those hubs as "at risk" in our weekly Hydrogen Billboard report. Money for the hydrogen hubs was included in 2021’s Infrastructure, Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), better known as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Seven hubs were chosen in October 2023 after a lengthy selection process, with 79 projects submitting a concept paper. Two direct air capture (DAC) projects that were scheduled to split $1.2 billion could also see their funding preserved, according to Bloomberg: Project Cypress in Louisiana, a joint venture between Heirloom, Climeworks and Battelle; and the South Texas DAC hub in Kleberg County, developed by Occidental’s 1PointFive. The DOE's project list is not public and there is no indication whether it is final.
How the Iran war set Beijing up for global clean energy dominance - — America’s allies, stung by soaring energy costs due to Washington’s attacks on Iran, are confronting an uncomfortable truth: The escape route from fossil fuel shocks leads straight into China’s arms. From the European Union and the United Kingdom to South Korea and the Philippines, numerous countries have responded to the war-driven spike in oil and gas prices with calls to accelerate electrification and the rollout of clean energy infrastructure.While that doesn’t offer an immediate fix to higher costs, governments see clean, domestic energy sources, such as renewables and nuclear power, as the obvious long-term solution to protect their economies from the ups and downs of global fossil fuel markets. But there’s also an obvious catch: The faster they move to decarbonize, the more they will have to rely on China to supply the necessary materials. After all, Beijing controls the overwhelming majority of the world’s clean technology and critical mineral supply.
New Fed Legislation Will Block Frivolous Lawsuits Filed by Big Green -- Marcellus Drilling News - Last week, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) introduced S.4340. This bill would bar frivolous lawsuits from green activist groups seeking damages, injunctions, or other relief for so-called harms allegedly caused by the end use of energy products, including oil and gas. Senators Ted Budd (R-NC), Tom Cotton (R-AR), and Mike Lee (R-UT) are cosponsoring the legislation. The House’s companion bill, H.R. 8330, was also introduced by Representative Harriet Hageman (R-WY). The bill is being called the “Stop Climate Shakedowns Act of 2026.” An appropriate title.
How Google turned its climate program into an AI booster - A computing platform Google first developed to meet its climate goals is now helping the technology giant quickly connect data centers to the grid. Google created its “carbon-intelligent computing platform” in 2020 to assign energy-intensive tasks to data centers when their local grids were flush with renewable energy. Now the company is leveraging the platform — and its ability to shift computing tasks among data centers — to jump to the front of the grid connection queue. Utilities have agreed to power Google’s supercomputing hubs in exchange for the company ramping down energy use at times of peak grid demand. As of last month, Google had integrated so-called demand response into five utility contracts across the South and Midwest, making up to 1 gigawatt of its data centers’ electricity demand available for curtailment. “The capabilities we developed for carbon-intelligent computing, we have built those into our demand response capabilities,” Michael Terrell, Google’s head of advanced energy, said in an interview. “They are very much related. It’s very similar capabilities in terms of how we manage our compute.” Google isn’t alone. Utilities and technology companies expressed growing interest in demand response deals at last month’s CERAWeek by S&P Global energy conference. The startup Emerald AI, which produces software to help data center workloads respond to grid demands, recently announced it raised $25 million in a funding round backed by computer chipmaker Nvidia and power giants GE, Vernova and Siemens. The pivot comes as utilities race to keep up with the unprecedented energy needs of artificial intelligence — and as multiple technology companies pull back on climate and clean energy goals. When Google developed its carbon-intelligent computing program, the company was confident it could power all its operations with clean energy by 2030. Today, the company calls that goal a “climate moonshot.” Google’s latest environmental report noted that “external factors — largely outside our direct control — are converging to create significant uncertainty,” including “AI’s energy demands, policy uncertainties, resource-challenged markets and more.”
Georgia embraces renewables to feed data center demand - Georgia has a new tool to help meet surging power demand from energy-guzzling data centers — and it involves adding a lot of clean power to the electric grid. Utility regulators in the state unanimously approved a program this month that will allow large power customers to identify and fund their own clean energy projects — a first in the Southeast. The framework, called the Customer Identified Resource program, could secure up to 3 gigawatts of clean energy by 2035. That’s enough to power 2 million to 3 million American homes or several large data centers. Supporters say the program could serve as a model for other states that need more flexibility to handle soaring electricity demand but have historically run into obstacles when dealing with one dominant utility that controls all stages of electricity supply. Such utilities — including Georgia Power, the state’s largest utility — are common in the Southeast. The Georgia Public Service Commission’s approval follows years of work by the Corporate Energy Buyers Association, a trade group whose members — which include Google, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft — want access to more carbon-free energy.
Letter to the Editor: Voters should research Ohio Senate Bill 52 - Richland Source - -- Ohio is in a crisis. I’m writing to ask my neighbors and community to research and form their own opinion on allowing our county commissioners to make the decision to stop landowners from having the ability to secure small solar and wind projects on their property. A few years back, a friend of mine whose father is a farmer, took his own life. The bank was closing in; crop prices were falling, and his health insurance cost more than his tractor payment. He told his wife, “The land is all we have, and it’s not enough anymore.” He’s not alone. According to the CDC, the suicide rate for agriculture, forestry and the fishing and hunting industry is 47.9 per 100,000 among males. The male farmer has a significantly higher percentage of loss of life due to socioeconomic status than any other profession currently. Government policies throughout the years have failed them and their families, leaving many feeling like their insurance policy is the only “out” they have. This is an opportunity to give them options. If we ban solar and wind completely, the only way to meet Ohio’s failing grid demands is more natural gas pipelines, oil and there’s even talk about bringing back coal plants. Is that what our community would choose? Maybe. Maybe not. But we should get a choice to decide. Ohio already has some of the highest electricity rates in the Midwest. Families are paying $300 to $500 a month just to keep the lights on in some cases. Inflation is squeezing every pocketbook at the grocery store. Telling a landowner they can’t use free sunshine and wind is like forcing them to stay in poverty by utilizing systems that have failed all of us in the past … think First Energy criminal charges. In the end, Ohioans have had to pay higher rates for the mistakes and fraudulent actions of elected officials. In addition, energy projects and farming can peacefully and profitably co-exist. It’s supplemental, not a sellout. Other communities have proven it works. In the city of Lebanon, sheep graze around solar panels that provide electricity to the municipality. They provide natural vegetation control while the panels provide power. Our Richland County farmers should have the same kind of option.Trump Invokes Defense Production Act to Boost O&G, Electric Grid -- Marcellus Drilling News -- On Monday, President Donald Trump invoked the Defense Production Act (DPA) to channel federal funding toward domestic energy projects, specifically targeting liquefied natural gas (LNG), petroleum, coal power, and grid infrastructure. Empowering the Energy Department to bypass regulatory and financial hurdles, the move aims to curb rising electricity and gasoline costs ahead of the midterm elections while meeting surging power demands from the AI industry.
Texas debates grid rule changes to connect data centers - Texas electricity regulators weighed major rule changes Friday as the state wrestles with how to bring an onslaught of new demand onto the grid without increasing costs for ratepayers or jeopardizing reliability. At an open meeting, the state Public Utility Commission mulled proposed requirements for data centers and other large power users seeking to connect to the state’s main power grid more quickly. Commissioner Kathleen Jackson said the PUC is working to tailor rules to address the unprecedented situation Texas is facing. The state’s main power grid operator Wednesday forecast that it could see demand more than quadruple to 367.8 gigawatts by 2032 — up from a record high of 85.5 GW set in 2023. “I think part of the challenge we have is that these are nuances. These are new loads — big loads — that are coming into the system,” Jackson said. “What we’re trying to do is to accommodate that and — quite frankly, facilitate that — but to make sure we are preserving the reliability of the system and the ability of the incumbents to continue to operate.”
EQT Targets AI Data Center Power Demand in Southwest PA -- Marcellus Drilling News - EQT Corporation delivered its latest quarterly update yesterday for the first quarter of 2026. EQT sees the materialization of “in-basin demand growth” improving Appalachian market conditions through the end of the decade. The company says it is positioned as a preferred partner for large-scale power, midstream, and data center projects in the region. EQT plans to continue drilling and completing a significant number of wells throughout 2026, indicating ongoing development in the Marcellus and Utica regions. However, the company is curtailing (restricting) 10-15 Bcf (billion cubic feet) of production during the second quarter due to current low prices.
PA Still ‘Secondary Market’ Despite $92B Data Center Pledge -- Marcellus Drilling News - Last July, President Trump and Pennsylvania U.S. Senator Dave McCormick attended a meeting in Pittsburgh to announce an amazing $92 billion of private (no taxpayer funding) investment in the Keystone State, mainly in the data center sector (see Pittsburgh Energy Event Truly Mind-Blowing, $92B+ Investments for PA). PA’s left-wing Democrats in the legislature are doing their best to block that investment by fighting individual projects on the local level (see PA Democrats Go Local with Opposition to $92B in Data Center Deals). Even though the announced investments are a staggering one-tenth of a trillion dollars, PA is still considered a “secondary” market for data centers, while neighboring Ohio is a primary market (along with Virginia and Texas). Why?
Gov. Josh “Bully” Shapiro Renews Threat to Pull PA Out of PJM Grid - Marcellus Drilling News -- Here we go again with SSDD (same stuff, different day). We’re referring to the bullying talk coming from Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and his threats to pull the Keystone State out of the PJM grid, the largest electric grid in the U.S., covering all or parts of 13 states plus the D.C. swamp. Shapiro first made this same threat more than a year ago, in January 2025 (see PA Gov. Shapiro Gets Uppity with PJM, Threatens to Leave the Grid). He kept up the bullying, renewing his calls in January of this year for PJM to adopt his preferred anti-competitive reforms (see PA Gov. Shapiro Continues to Bully PJM Grid to Dump Free Market). And now he’s saying it again—threatening to pull PA out of PJM if PJM doesn’t bend to his demands.
Central Ohio survey reveals concerns about growth, data centers - The Columbus Dispatch - Faced with a potential energy crunch, most central Ohioans want to slow the pace of data center development in the region and invest in green energy, according to recently released survey results.Preserving parks and waterways, reducing pesticides and "forever" plastics, keeping energy costs low and increasing sustainable energy sources are among the issues the public wants, according to the results.The survey of more than 2,000 respondents in 15 counties, part of the Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC) Leaders Listen survey, was begun in 2023, in partnership with the Columbus Dispatch, to help leaders "inform their work as they strive to best serve our communities and help the region to get better as it grows bigger."One key concern is the region's new and planned data centers, some calling the region the "Silicon Heartland." This has elevated concerns about the region’s power and water supplies, air quality, land use, and transportation infrastructure, according to the report.Two-thirds of respondents supported slowing the race toward hyperscale data centers, if necessary, to protect the power grid. Several communities have enacted restrictions on data center development in central Ohio, including a recently approved moratorium in Sunbury and a ban in St. Albans Township in Licking County in March. Among the highest priority of survey respondents: Conservation of waterways (91%); conservation of green spaces (87%) and expanding public greenways and multi-use paths (82%). One paradox in the survey found that respondents were nearly unanimous in their aversion to energy shortages and keeping energy costs low, but "relatively little importance was placed upon increasing power generationfrom fossil fuels." The survey found that 23% of respondents believe communities are “doing enough” to combat climate pollution.The Trump administration has begun plans to extend natural gas pipelines across the country to power massive turbines to power data centers including a proposed $33 billion project in Pike County. Nine-in-10 respondents said it is “moderately to extremely” important to expand renewable and sustainable energy generation. The same number support small scale nuclear reactors as an option. Pike County already is enriching uranium at the site of the former Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant in Piketon. And California-based Oklo hopes to forge a partnership to install reactors there. Respondents also widely support solar energy, with 62% of respondents supporting large utility-scale solar projects, citing grid reliability (76%), environmental benefits (76%), and local economic gains (61%), aligning clean energy withregional competitiveness and workforce growth, according to the survey.At least 40% of respondents said they were "not at all or somewhat satisfied" at planners and decision makers response to housing, transportation, economic development and environmental quality issues. Written responses from area residents reflected the data. A Reynoldsburg resident said, "I enjoy kayaking, fishing and generally being outdoors. I do not feel the quality of waterways is as good as they used to be.” And from a Columbus resident: “Areas like medians, rooftops, freeway ramp areas, government building rooftops, city grounds, are areas that should be used for solar panels, renewable energy, etc."
Research at Chernobyl and Fukushima shows how radioactive materials move in the environment - The Chernobyl accident in 1986 and the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011 released radioactive materials into the air, soil and water around those two nuclear power plants. The general term for the materials that got released is "radionuclides." Some decayed quickly, effectively disappearing without having done much harm. But others, mostly isotopes of iodine, cesium, strontium and plutonium, remained in the environment for many years, damaging human health and the environment. The mechanisms by which they do that damage depend on the material itself, the weather and the local environment. For example, cesium chemically behaves like sodium and potassium, which are accumulated in human tissues. Strontium chemically behaves like calcium, which is accumulated in bones. As a nuclear engineer and researcher who has worked on tracking radiation levels and exposure in projects related to Chernobyl, Fukushima Daiichi, and U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories and nuclear sites, I study how radionuclides migrate because this helps predict where radioactive contamination goes, how fast it moves, and who or what might be exposed over time. The most important lesson is that radiation risk can be understood and controlled. Human senses can't detect radiation, but scientific instruments can accurately measure the amounts and types of radiation in an area. Once it is measured, scientists and engineers can make informed decisions about how to use well-established methods and modern technology to reduce risk. The major nuclear accidents at Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi released radioactive materials into the atmosphere as tiny particles. Winds carried these particles across countries and even between continents. Rain and snow brought them out of the air and down to the ground.Soil plays a very important role in what happens next. Some radionuclides stick strongly to soil and do not move very much. Others move more easily and travel slowly downward through the soil toward groundwater or get washed into rivers, lakes and oceans.Radioactivity also moves through water. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, radionuclides entered the ocean through direct releases and runoff. Scientists monitored seawater, fish and seaweed to track how radioactive materials moved and changed over time. Monitoring showed that radionuclides such as cesium spread through coastal waters but became diluted and dispersed over time, with levels in most areas farther out in the ocean decreasing and remaining low and relatively stable after the initial release. Continuous sampling of water and marine life also showed that radioactivity in seafood generally declined over time and distance from Fukushima, remaining within safe limits. From soil and water, radioactive materials also moved into plants and animals, which posed risks to human health. For instance, grass absorbed radionuclides from soil, cows ate the grass, and radionuclides then appeared in the cows' milk. The International Atomic Energy Agency, World Health Organization, and Food and Agriculture Organization all have programs that look for radioactivity in foods to keep unsafe food off the market. When and where radiation is detected, managing it can take several forms, depending on the type of contamination and how much there is.One common method is removing contaminated soil and transporting it in sealed, labeled containers to licensed storage or disposal facilities, where it is stored in special buildings that isolate the material from the environment and prevent leaks into soil or groundwater.Another method involves covering contaminated areas with clean soil, clay or concrete. This approach does not remove the radioactivity but rather acts as a barrier that reduces radiation exposure and helps prevent contaminated particles from being spread by wind, water or human activity.In some cases, chemicals are added to the soil to reduce the mobility of radionuclides and limit their uptake by plants. After the Chernobyl disaster, for example, national governments and international agencies applied potassium fertilizers to soils to reduce the uptake of radioactive cesium by crops. Following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster, large areas of farmland were treated similarly, and contaminated topsoil was removed and stored in temporary as well as long-term facilities.Long-term studies in the Chernobyl exclusion zone have helped scientists understand how radionuclides behave over decades. Researchers have examined how radionuclides such as cesium and strontium isotopes migrate through forests, lakes, soils and built-up areas, providing critical data for predicting long-term environmental and health effects. These studies have shown that radionuclide movement is influenced by environmental factors, such as soil composition, moisture and biological activity, and that contamination can remain mobile and biologically relevant for decades.
OH Court Signals Dismissal of Lawsuit Against 2 Injection Wells -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Last November, the Buckeye Environmental Network, backed by lawyers from the controversial Earthjustice, sued the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) over permitting two new shale wastewater injection wells in the Marietta area, claiming the standard used to evaluate the wells was old and out-of-date (see Antis Sue ODNR for Approving 2 Injection Wells Near Marietta, OH). The court involved, the Franklin County Court of Appeals, recently signaled it intends to dismiss Buckeye’s frivolous lawsuit.
Rover Pipeline Capacity Cut Due to Compressor Station Maintenance -- Marcellus Drilling News - Natural gas flows along the Rover Pipeline have been cut by 387 MMcf/d (out of 3.25 – 3.4 Bcf/d) due to maintenance at the Bulger Compressor Station, which is expected to last through the end of the month, curbing Appalachian takeaway capacity to the Midwest and Canada. Additionally, the MarkWest Harmon Creek gas processing plant in Washington County, PA, is reported to be offline due to this work
Cloverleaf school board greenlights lawsuit against Medina County auditor over unpaid Nexus pipeline interest - The Cloverleaf Local School District Board of Education this week approved a resolution authorizing legal action to recover more than $200,000 in disputed interest tied to property taxes paid by Nexus Gas Transmission. District officials say the interest stems from public utility tangible personal property taxes for tax years 2019-21 that went unpaid during litigation over the pipeline’s property valuation. Under Ohio law, the district argues, statutory interest should have been assessed and collected alongside those taxes. According to the resolution, the district’s legal counsel issued a June 2025 memorandum concluding that Medina County is obligated to assess and collect the interest. School officials say the Medina County Auditor’s Office has not taken action despite repeated requests over the past year, citing a need for guidance from the county prosecutor.The board authorized Treasurer Jim Hudson and Superintendent Daryl Kubilus Jr. to work with legal counsel to pursue all available remedies, including potential litigation, to compel collection of the funds. The resolution took effect immediately.Board President Jason Myers said the district turned to legal action only after months of unsuccessful attempts to resolve the issue.“As a Medina County taxpayer, it is incredibly frustrating and embarrassing that despite our many requests over the past 12 months to the county auditor, no action has been taken to bill and collect interest owed by Nexus to the Cloverleaf School District and other local entities,” Myers said in a statement to cleveland.com“Instead, we now find ourselves using taxpayer dollars to pursue legal action against our own county government—a situation that should never have been necessary and could have been avoided.”Kubilus said the delay contrasts with other actions involving district finances, pointing to a failed effort by the Medina County Budget Commission to reduce Cloverleaf’s budget.“When government moves faster to take away money from our schools than it does to collect money lawfully owed to us, that’s a problem,” Kubilus said. “And it’s one we’re not going to sit back and accept.”
City Council Weighs Ordinance to Facilitate Natural Gas for New Industrial Park-- The Oberlin Review - Local residents and environmental advocacy groups have responded with concern to a proposal to amend the language of the City’s Community Bill of Rights to allow Dominion Energy Ohio to build a gas connection to the proposed eco-industrial park. According to a March 12 memo from Oberlin’s Law Director Jon Clark, the pipeline would deliver natural gas to the park and enable it to receive financial support from the State of Ohio. The company has offered to build the pipeline without compensation from the City. Opposing the change are several local environmental groups. Students for Energy Justice has circulated an open letter urging Councilmembers to vote against changing the Community Bill of Rights’ language, which they perceive as weakening the City’s commitment to using alternative energy sources from natural gas. The Community Bill of Rights, officialized in the summer of 2013, bans local gas and oil extraction in the City. The measure was first tested when residents used it to advocate against the installation of a portion of the NEXUS Gas Transmission pipeline — developed by Enbridge Inc. — within Oberlin. After being proposed in 2012, local environmental groups were embroiled in an attempt to prevent the pipeline’s construction until 2018. The City also challenged its construction in court until 2022. A portion of NEXUS Gas Transmission was ultimately built through Oberlin, according to former City Councilmember Kelley Singleton. For College third-year Savannah Wright, a member of SEJ, the presence of Dominion Energy Ohio, which is owned by Enbridge Inc., is a concern. “It seems sketchy to me that [the City] would be working with a subsidiary of [Enbridge Inc.] which has disrespected our Community Bill of Rights and our City’s self-determination in the past,” Wright said. Holly Swiglo, College third-year and co-leader of the Oberlin Climate Coalition, conceded the possibility that natural gas might be the only power source possible for the park, but expressed the opinion that Council had more investigation to do. “I’m still in the position that the City Council has not fully explored their options and fully considered renewable alternatives,” Swiglo said. “I would want them to vote to table or delay approving this ordinance, and then from there, really explore their options. If at that point they decide gas is inevitable, we’ll do with that what we will.” Experts on the City’s energy supply stated that there is a limited amount of alternative and sustainable energy sources to fuel the industrial park. At the April 6 Council meeting, Drew Skolnicki, director of Oberlin’s Municipal Light and Power System, told the Council that Oberlin’s electric grid could not be sure of receiving enough capacity from the City’s electricity supplier to fuel the park after 2029 — making it potentially impossible for the industrial park to operate on electrical power alone. Swiglo spoke of solar energy as another potential resource for the park and speculated that implementing solar energy power in other parts of Oberlin might add more capacity to the electric grid. According to City Manager Greg Holcomb, though, several renewable options for powering the park would face challenges. “The wind studies in this area show that wind isn’t an overly feasible energy option in this area,” Holcomb said. “The other issue is if we’re talking about putting it on the site, we only have 225 acres. If we did solar, the entire park would [have to] be nothing but solar fields to supply enough electricity for one building, and so there’s no tax revenue from that, or very little compared to having employees actually in a facility, bringing in income taxes.”
Non-Taxpaying Students Tell Oberlin to Block Gas Pipe to Biz Park - Marcellus Drilling News -- Oberlin, Ohio, officials are weighing a proposal to amend the city’s Community Bill of Rights to allow Dominion Energy Ohio to build a gas pipeline connection to a planned eco-industrial park, unlocking possible state support. Environmental groups and students at Oberlin College (neither of which pay any property or income taxes in Ohio, meaning they don't have a say) argue the change would weaken Oberlin’s anti-fossil-fuel commitments and revive ties to Enbridge, whose NEXUS pipeline previously "divided" the city. City officials and utility experts counter that renewables alone are not yet feasible, citing constraints on electric capacity and on wind, solar, and geothermal options.
Anti-Fracking CROWD Pressures Health Dept. to Deny “Leto” Air Permit –-- Marcellus Drilling News -- Olympus Energy (now owned by EQT) drills in the Greater Pittsburgh region, in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties. In 2021, Olympus applied to build a new well pad in a rural part of Allegheny County, in West Deer Township. So-called Concerned Residents of West Deer (CROWD) got amped up to oppose the project. They succeeded when town supervisors rejected the Dionysus well pad (see West Deer Township Denies Olympus Permit to Build Shale Pad). CROWD then attempted to block a second well pad, the Leto pad, proposed by Olympus in another West Deer location (see West Deer Antis Try to Block 2nd Olympus Shale Well Pad). However, West Deer supervisors approved the Leto pad in June 2023, which set off the antis who threatened to sue (see West Deer Approves Olympus “Leto” Well Pad, Antis Pledge to Sue). They followed through with a lawsuit (see Anti-Fracking CROWD Lawsuit Against West Deer Gets Day in Court). The CROWD antis aren’t waiting for the results of that lawsuit. They’re also pressuring the Allegheny County Health Department to deny an air permit for the installation of a tri-ethylene glycol dehydrator at the site.
Coterra “Software Glitch” Releases Up to 700K Gal. of Freshwater -- Marcellus Drilling News - On April 5 (Easter Sunday), Coterra Energy reported that approximately 400,000 to 704,000 gallons of freshwater were released from an impoundment at the Brooks shale gas well pad in Susquehanna County, Pennsylvania. The release began at 8:02 a.m. when all six stanchion valves opened simultaneously, flowing by gravity into a pasture and reaching Meshoppen Creek before being discovered by a landowner’s relative that evening. Coterra attributed the incident to a corrupted software configuration file, which also prevented remote valve closure and disabled electronic notifications.
PA DEP Clueless About Final Quad O Plan to Reduce Methane from O&G -- Marcellus Drilling News - Yesterday, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) informed the House Environmental and Natural Resource Protection Committee that it remains uncertain about the final contents of its plan to reduce methane emissions from oil and gas operations, which is due to the EPA in January 2027. That is, they don’t have a clue. This cluelessness follows an extensive public comment period on a proposed plan for onerous regulations (developed during the dark Biden years) that aims to satisfy federal obligations primarily through general permits and references to federal standards.
Northeast PA Will Benefit from Transco NESE Project in NYC -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Williams has commenced construction of its Transco Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) project, extending through northeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and New York (see Groundbreaking Ceremony for NESE Pipe in NYC an All-Star Event). This infrastructure upgrade, primarily involving new pipes and enhancements to existing compressor stations on the Transco pipeline system, aims to deliver more natural gas to New York City, which faces a supply shortage. Northeast Pennsylvania is strategically positioned to supply gas to this system, making the NESE project a benefit for the region by meeting New York City’s demand for natural gas.
Oil & Gas Turns to AI to Reduce Costs, Unlock New Shale Growth -- Marcellus Drilling News -- According to research by powerhouse consulting firm Deloitte, the U.S. shale industry has significantly reduced breakeven costs since 2015, driven by two waves of innovation in drilling and completion, and by financial discipline, making it more resilient to price volatility. A third, digital-led wave of innovation is emerging, focused on infrastructure activation, system optimization, and workforce amplification, aiming to further cut costs, enhance competitiveness, and bridge the breakeven gap with global counterparts. These efforts involve leveraging AI and analytics for exploration, integrating midstream infrastructure, optimizing value chains, implementing smart operations, and digitally transforming field-first tasks to improve efficiency and productivity.
New York's fracking ban faces federal lawsuit - New York’s ban on fracking would be struck down if a new federal lawsuit filed by property owners in Delaware County is successful. When Thomas Woodward and his son purchased 164 acres of land in Delaware County in 2011, they thought it would be a lucrative investment. They purchased the land and its mineral rights with an intent to lease it for the extraction of natural gas. The property sits on top of the Marcellus Shale and Utica Shale — two areas with large underground reserves of natural gas. But the method for extracting that natural gas was on hold at the time while the state Department of Environmental Conservation reviewed the potential impact of the practice.
Mineral Owners File Lawsuit Alleging New York’s Bans On Oil and Gas Development Violate the Fifth Amendment’s Takings Clause -- On April 16, 2026, father and son Thomas and Madison Woodward filed a complaint in the federal court for the Northern District of New York against state officials, alleging that New York’s bans on oil and gas development by prohibiting certain methods used for natural gas extraction constitute an unconstitutional taking of property.[1] The Woodwards are represented by the Pacific Legal Foundation.[2] In 2011, the Woodwards purchased property in western New York.[3] Underlying this property is the Marcellus and Utica Shale formation, which extends across the border into Pennsylvania and through Ohio and West Virginia.[4] The complaint details that because of its low permeability, extracting natural gas from the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations requires fracture stimulation—and the only commercially viable method of fracture simulation is high-pressure hydraulic fracturing.[5] New York, however, has banned high-pressure hydraulic fracturing, along with other fracturing techniques including CO2 and gel propane fracturing.[6] As permitted by New York law, the Woodwards severed the surface and mineral estates of the property at issue.[7] In their complaint, the Woodwards claim that New York’s bans, codified by statute in 2020 and 2024, on high-pressure hydraulic fracturing and other fracturing techniques “has taken all economically beneficial use of the [their] severed mineral estate.”[8] For relief, the Woodwards are seeking a declaratory judgment that the development bans violate their Fifth Amendment rights, as well as a permanent injunction preventing state officials from enforcing it.[9] If ultimately successful, the lawsuit will significantly expand the area of potential development of the Marcellus and Utica shale formations. Vorys will continue to monitor the lawsuit and its outcome for its clients.
NARO “Joins” Legal Fight Against NY in Frack Ban Takings Case -- Marcellus Drilling News -- It’s fun to watch mainstream media begin to wake up to the lawsuit we told you about last week, filed by a father and son against New York State over its fracking ban (see New Lawsuit Brought Against NY Claims State Frack Ban a “Taking”). Mainstream and the anti-fossil fuel crowd are concerned about this lawsuit, viewing it as an existential threat that may (one day) overturn NY’s frack ban. The Pacific Legal Foundation (PLF) is representing the father/son free of charge in this lawsuit. The National Association of Royalty Owners (NARO) is joining the PLF in this action, signaling that royalty owners are getting involved in the effort to roll back frack bans.
CT Gov Signals Caving to Antis on Iroquois Compressor Station - Marcellus Drilling News - - The Iroquois Gas Transmission’s Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project will increase horsepower at three compression stations — two in New York and one in Connecticut — by an extra 125 MMcf/d, to flow more Marcellus/Utica gas into New York City and New England. The NY Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) approved the permits for the NY compressors with the condition that Iroquois pays a $1.5 million “contribution” (we call it a bribe) to the “Disadvantaged Community Benefit Program” (see NY DEC Approves Iroquois Pipe Expansion…With $1.5M “Contribution”). The only remaining holdup is a permit from the CT Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) for the Brookfield compressor, which has been on hold since June of last year (see Iroquois Pipe Expansion Close to Construction, Waiting on CT Permit). There are disturbing signs that Connecticut Governor Ned Lamont (Democrat) may be planning to block or fundamentally change the conditions of this permit based on his conversation with Brookfield officials who oppose ExC
Big Green Sues to Cancel Water Permit for Transco SESE Project - Marcellus Drilling News -- Earlier this year, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the Williams Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (see FERC Approves Williams Transco SESE Pipeline Project for VA, NC). The $1.5 billion SESE project will add 1.6 million dekatherms per day (1.6 Bcf/d) of natural gas transportation capacity, equivalent to serving approximately 9.8 million homes. It will be built in the same general area as the proposed Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) Southgate project, starting near Chatham, Virginia, and ending near Eden, North Carolina. Five environmental groups have sued to overturn a federal permit granted to Transco for the SESE project.
Golden Pass LNG Nears First Export as QatarEnergy Vessel Berths in Texas - Golden Pass LNG has confirmed the facility could begin loading LNG soon as a QatarEnergy vessel anchors at the Texas facility’s berth. At A Glance:
- QatarEnergy vessel docks for initial cargo
- Additional vessels queue off Gulf Coast
- Feed gas averages 0.31 Bcf/d
LNG Tanker Arrives at Golden Pass LNG to Export Inaugural Cargo -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Golden Pass LNG terminal is a liquefied natural gas terminal and regasification facility in Sabine Pass (Port Arthur), Texas. It is among the largest LNG facilities in the world. It can accommodate up to 15.6 million metric tons (MT) of LNG per year, the equivalent of approximately 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (Bcf/d). QatarEnergy, Qatar’s state-owned petroleum company, owns 70% of the Golden Pass LNG project. ExxonMobil owns the other 30%. Sabine Pass sees a tremendous amount of Marcellus/Utica molecules flowing to the region via a couple of pipelines, namely Transco (which flows M-U molecules). Hence, our interest in this major natural gas user’s start-up. The good news is that a ship has docked to load the very first official LNG export cargo.
Inaugural Cargo Departs Golden Pass LNG, Heading to Belgium -- Marcellus Drilling News - The Golden Pass LNG terminal is a liquefied natural gas terminal and regasification facility in Sabine Pass (Port Arthur), Texas. It is among the largest LNG facilities in the world. It can accommodate up to 15.6 million metric tons (MT) of LNG per year, the equivalent of approximately 2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (Bcf/d). Earlier this week, MDN told you that the facility’s very first official cargo carrier had arrived to “fill ‘er up” (see LNG Tanker Arrives at Golden Pass LNG to Export Inaugural Cargo). The Al Qaiyyah LNG tanker, which arrived at the facility on Monday, is owned by QatarEnergy (which owns 70% of the facility). Yesterday, the Al Qaiyyah left with its load and is heading, according to S&P Global, to Belgium’s Zeebrugge LNG import terminal.
Golden Pass LNG Sends First Cargo as Texas Terminal Enters Global Market Golden Pass LNG has shipped an inaugural cargo from the developing Texas terminal, marking the 10th operational export facility in the United States. At A Glance:
- Golden Pass boosts U.S. LNG export capacity
- Train 1 adds 800 MMcf/d demand potential
- Additional trains to drive future demand
First Golden Pass Cargo Signals Sharp Rise in U.S. LNG Flows - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers:
- 3 Mt: U.S. LNG exports are forecast to see a significant week/week rise as Golden Pass LNG moves to send out its first volumes by the end of the week. Total U.S. exports the week of April 20 are forecast to hit 3 million tons (Mt), more than 0.5 Mt higher than the previous week, according to Kpler. One of three vessels expected to load at Golden Pass by the end of the week arrived at the southeast Texas terminal Monday. Around half of U.S. exports during the week are forecast to head to Europe as Asian and South American demand continue to heat up global competition.
- $1 billion: Woodside Energy Group’s local spend commitments for Louisiana LNG have surpassed $1 billion with its latest order agreement, according to the company. The Australian firm disclosed it has ordered four new tugs from C&C Marine and Repair, a Louisiana marine company, expected to be delivered in 2028. Woodside called the deal a milestone toward its strategy to focus a significant portion of its foundational procurement in the state. The cost of the 16.5 Mt/y first phase of the terminal is estimated at $17.5 billion.
- 19.5 Bcf/d: LNG feed gas nomination to U.S. terminals have stabilized at elevated levels over the past several days after hitting 20 Bcf/d over the weekend. Feed gas nominations are expected to average 19.5 Bcf/d over the next week, matching the previous 30-day average, according to Wood Mackenzie. A lack of prolonged maintenance events and persistent uptick from commissioning projects have kept gas flows to export projects near record levels since the beginning of the month. Average feed gas nominations have risen 3.6 Bcf/d above last year’s levels, according to pipeline data.
- 5 Tcf: Eni SpA has disclosed a major gas discovery in Indonesia as it works with equity partners to boost the country’s LNG exports and stabilize falling domestic production. Eni and partners drilled a well named Geliga-1 in Indonesia’s Kutei Basin, which has estimated resources of about 5 Tcf of gas and 300 million barrels of condensate. Combining Geliga with nearby discoveries could unlock new production and possibly a third development hub that would feed back into existing infrastructure like the Bontang LNG plant, according to the company. Bontang LNG has a nameplate capacity of 22.5 Mt/y but exported 2.55 Mt last year, according to Kpler data.
Oil, Natural Gas Prices Whipsaw Amid ‘Total Chaos’ in Middle East as Ceasefire Nears End - Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was at a standstill Monday as a ceasefire between the United States and Iran neared its end and conflicting signals emerged over the next round of peace talks between the countries, pushing global natural gas prices higher.North America LNG export flows reached 19.29 million Dth on April 20, 2026, led by Sabine Pass, Plaquemines and Corpus Christi, signaling strong U.S. Gulf Coast export demand. At A Glance:
Peace talks shrouded in uncertainty
Ceasefire ends Tuesday
LNG vessels forced to backtrack
US natgas hits one-week high as output drops and LNG exports surge -US natural gas futures edged up to a fresh one-week high on Monday on a drop in output over the past couple of weeks and forecasts for cooler weather and higher demand through early May than previously expected. Gas futures were also supported by near-record gas flows to US liquefied natural gas export plants and a roughly six per cent jump in crude futures on fears the US-Iran ceasefire could collapse after the US seized an Iranian cargo ship. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 1.5 cents, or 0.6 per cent, to settle at $2.689 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since April 8 for a second day in a row. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 51 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, 49 times in 2024, 39 times in 2025, and a record 60 times so far this year. Waha prices have averaged a negative $1.83 per mmBtu so far in 2026, compared with a positive $1.15 in 2025 and a positive $2.88 over the past five years (2021-2025). Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states held at 110.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, the same as in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.9 bcfd over the past 14 days to a preliminary 10-week low of 108.3 bcfd on Monday. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. Analysts projected that mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast seven per cent above normal levels during the week ended April 17, up from six per cent above normal during the week ended April 10. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 5. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 103.6 bcfd this week to 101.5 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February. A tanker arrived at the QatarEnergy/Exxon Mobil 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass facility under construction in Texas to collect the plant's inaugural export of the gas.
US natural gas prices edge higher as investors gauge Iran peace talks - U.S. natural gas future prices rose on Tuesday, as investors assessed murkiness around the trajectory of potential talks between the U.S. and Iran to extend a temporary ceasefire and Fed nominee Kevin Warsh’s senate confirmation hearing. By 14:39 ET (18:39 GMT), the U.S. Natural Gas futures had jumped by 0.45% to 2.70 MMBtu, according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. Uncertainty surrounded fresh peace talks between the U.S. and Iran on Tuesday ahead of the fast-approaching expiration of a temporary ceasefire deal, with President Donald Trump accusing Tehran of violating the halt to hostilities but suggesting that an agreement could still be reached. Citing a Pakistani source, Reuters reported that the halt to hostilities would end at 8 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, or midnight GMT on Thursday. The two-week pause to the fighting is set to run out later this week, although the exact timing of the deadline remained unspecified. Citing a Pakistani source, Reuters reported that the truce would end at 8 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, or midnight GMT on Thursday. Trump, who first announced the ceasefire on April 7 at 6:32 p.m. ET (22:32 GMT), said in a social media post on Tuesday that Iran had broken the truce "numerous times," but did not elaborate further or provide more details. Yet he later told CNBC that he expects the U.S. to make a "great deal" with Iran, adding that the U.S. is in a "very strong negotiating position." With the clock ticking down, Pakistan, which has served as a frequent mediator between Washington and Tehran, has been moving to clear the path for renewed talks to resolve a conflict which began with joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. The Associated Press, citing two regional officials, reported that the U.S. and Iran have signaled that they will be attending renewed negotiations in Islamabad. The U.S. has expressed confidence that the discussions in Pakistan will go ahead and a Pakistani source has claimed that Tehran will be joining, according to Reuters. But Trump has seemingly poured cold water on the potential for an extension to the ceasefire, telling CNBC that he does not want to renew the truce. Trump has been insisting that he wants an agreement that will stem ructions in financial markets, along with a promise from Iran not to pursue development of a nuclear weapon. Beyond the Iran war, investors are eyeing the confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh, Trump’s pick to become the next Fed Chair. The Fed’s independence from Trump – who has constantly demanded lower interest rates – will be of particular interest for Wall Street. Kevin Warsh, nominated to lead the Federal Reserve, said he will pursue broad changes in policymaking if confirmed to lead the central bank.
US natural gas futures hit one-week low on bigger stockpile build - US natural gas futures fell about four per cent to a one-week low on Thursday on a bigger-than-expected build in stockpiles and expectations that energy firms will keep injecting more gas into storage than usual in coming weeks. After rising for six days in a row, front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.2 cents, or 3.7 per cent, to $2.62 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its lowest close since April 15. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added 103 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended April 17. That was bigger than the 94-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 77 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 64 bcf for the period. Analysts had said they expected last week's build would be bigger than usual because mild weather kept heating demand low. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 54 days in a row as pipeline constraints continued to trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states has eased to 110.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March. That figure compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 3.8 bcfd over the past 17 days to a preliminary 11-week low of 108.3 bcfd on Thursday. . Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 8. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 103.7 bcfd this week to 100.5 bcfd next week. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants have risen to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February. The first tanker departed QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil's 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant in service and under construction in Texas with the facility's inaugural cargo on Wednesday.
US natgas drops 4% to 17-month low as storage rises on mild weather and weak demand U.S. natural gas futures slid about 4% on Friday to a 17-month low, on forecasts for the weather to remain mild and demand low through early May, allowing energy firms to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 9.1 cents, or 3.5%, to settle at $2.523 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since October 29, 2024. For the week, the contract was down about 6% after gaining about 1% last week. In the cash market, some power and gas prices in Texas and California traded in negative territory this week as mild weather kept both heating and cooling use low, allowing ample amounts of hydro and other renewable sources of energy to meet more demand. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states eased to 110.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 110.4 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.7 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by around 4.1 bcfd over the past 18 days to a preliminary 11-week low of 108.1 bcfd on Friday, as low spot prices prompt energy firms like EQT, the second-biggest U.S. gas producer, to cut production. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast the weather will remain slightly cooler than normal through May 9. Cool weather in late April and early May, however, does not cause much heating demand and also reduces the chances of early-season air conditioning use. Analysts said mostly mild weather so far this spring has allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual, boosting inventories to a forecast 8% above normal levels during the week ended April 24, up from 7% above normal during the week ended April 17. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, up from 18.6 bcfd in March. That reading compares with a monthly record high of 18.7 bcfd in February.
How U.S. Natural Gas is Defying the Risk Premium of the Iran Conflict - While the rest of the world worries about war-driven LNG supply gaps, some pricing points in the United States are bottoming out, and others are trading in the red as producers pay buyers to take their natural gas. Chart of NGI’s Henry Hub daily spot and forward natural gas prices showing a sharp spike above $30/MMBtu in February 2026 followed by a decline below $3/MMBtu, with forward prices gradually rising toward $4/MMBtu by late 2026. At A Glance:
California solar crushes regional prices
Permian oil drilling floods NatGas
LNG turmoil barely dents U.S.
Deepwater gas project review downplays climate after endangerment repeal - --The Trump administration is taking public comment on a planned offshore liquefied natural gas export project that would ship out 8.4 million metric tons of gas annually from the Gulf of Mexico.The Department of Transportation released a draft environmental analysis Friday for ST LNG’s deepwater port project, proposed for approximately 10 miles off the coast of Matagorda, Texas — finding the undertaking isn’t likely to harm several threatened or endangered species. ST LNG is one of the first major energy projects to undergo an environmental review at the Maritime Administration since EPA in February repealed the 2009 finding that served as the agency’s foundational authority to regulate greenhouse gases. While the DOT review tallies how much carbon dioxide equivalent the project is expected to emit during its offshore construction and operation, it included that information in a section on air quality and noise. DOT said ST LNG will be required to comply with Clean Air Act requirements that “are applicable at the time of permit issuance,” noting that EPA finalized its rescission of the endangerment finding in February.
New Low Reached for Permian Natural Gas Prices - Low prices in the Permian are a routine story at this point, with the cash price of natural gas at Waha regularly plunging into negative territory since 2024. However, a new milestone of bearishness was set in trading for delivery on April 16, when Waha averaged minus $9.52/MMBtu according to data from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI). Waha has not seen a positive cash price since February 4 in the aftermath of Winter Storm Fern. The day’s low Waha prices has affected markets that get their gas from the Permian Basin. In particular, the Southern California benchmark SoCal Border traded at plus $0.645/MMBtu for delivery on April 16, which is a record low price for that point. As we reported in the NATGAS Permian Report on Monday, production receipts on El Paso have been a large driver of recent volatility in the daily production numbers for the basin. The pipeline has been conducting near-continuous maintenance on the North Mainline for years with varying amount of flow restrictions on the pipeline. Because the basin is so constrained, even small changes in capacity available can have an outsized effect on prices and the overall production numbers. However, outflows from the Permian on El Paso were strong on April 16, and the extremely low price in the West reflect that gas was widely available, suggesting that another pipeline was the culprit in the day’s record-breaking capacity constraint.
Permian Natural Gas Outflow Restrictions Remain | RBN Energy - Waha natural gas prices hit a record low in trading for delivery on April 16, recovering only slightly since that date. According to data from Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) the Waha price bottomed out at minus $9.52/MMBtu on April 16, but averaged minus $6.83/MMBtu for the week ended April 20. The key factor leading to sustained negative prices has been lack of takeaway capacity for high gas production. Overall outflows were virtually unchanged last week, with lower outflows to the East offset by higher outflows to the West and Mexico. Although it has not been confirmed by Kinder Morgan, it is likely that Permian Highway is currently experiencing flow restrictions because of maintenance or an outage. Permian Highway is an intrastate pipeline and not required to report outages or maintenance. Previously, Kinder Morgan voluntarily disclosed these on the Pipeline’s EBB but stopped those postings last year. Based on available flow data on connecting pipelines, however, it appears some capacity on the pipeline went offline on April 16 and remains offline. Overall outflows to the East averaged 12.79 Bcf/d, down 0.71 Bcf/d week-on-week, as seen in the chart below. As Waha reached a record low last Thursday, California prices have also been especially weak because of low demand, ample supply and an outage at the Aliso Canyon storage facility in Southern California. The facility, which is the largest storage asset in the state, is closed for injections through the end of the month. The SoCal Border price averaged $0.71/MMBtu for the week ended April 20, including a record low on April 16.
Long Time Comin’ – Can Permian Gas Processing Capacity Keep Pace With Production Gains? | RBN Energy - A combination of new natural gas takeaway capacity out of the Permian, rising feedgas demand from LNG export terminals and stronger gas prices at the Waha Hub will support a steady increase in associated gas production in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico through the rest of the 2020s. But while several gas processing plants are being planned in the Delaware and Midland basins, a critically important question looms: Will there be enough capacity to process the coming tsunami of incremental gas? In today’s RBN blog, we continue our examination of the fast-changing Permian gas market with a look at production growth vs. processing capacity. In Part 1 of this blog series, we said that while the Permian is now producing more than 22 Bcf/d of residue natural gas — one-fifth of total U.S. production — producers have had to deal with a persistent shortfall in gas takeaway capacity and negative (sometimes very negative) prompt-month and cash prices at Waha. We added, however, that there’s good reason to believe the situation will soon be improving. A massive tranche of new takeaway capacity will be coming online over the next few months, ending the shortfall for many years to come, and gas demand from LNG exporters and power generators will ramp up fast. RBN’s monthly Arrow Model report, which tracks and forecasts shifting gas pipeline flows in Texas and Louisiana, expects that Waha basis — the difference between gas prices at Henry Hub and Waha — will shift from an average discount of $3.52/MMBtu this year to $1.28/MMBtu in 2027 and $0.70/MMBtu in 2028. Even if the Henry Hub price averages around $3.50/MMBtu over the next few years, as the forward curve indicates, Permian producers (even those without locked-in takeaway capacity) will get an uplift for their gas sales. With worries about gas takeaway and weak Waha prices fading away, producers are more likely to expand their drilling-and-completion activity in “gassier” parts of the Permian, many of which offer some of the most oil-saturated rock in the entire shale play. That impending shift creates an infrastructure challenge of its own, namely the need to develop new capacity to process the increasing volumes of associated gas from Permian wells. The buildout of new processing capacity in the Permian is not a new thing — far from it. According to RBN’s weekly NATGAS Permian report, nearly 10 Bcf/d of new processing capacity came online in 2022-25 and another 1.4 Bcf/d started up in Q1 2026. As shown in Figure 1 above, the Delaware Basin accounted for just over half of the capacity added over the past four years and three months — 5.4 Bcf/d in the West Texas part of the Delaware (dark-blue bar segments) and about 900 MMcf/d in the southeastern New Mexico part (light-blue bar segments) — while the Midland Basin (all of it in West Texas; orange bar segments) accounted for the remaining 4.9 Bcf/d, which for the sake of simplicity includes about 200 MMcf/d in the Central Platform. In all, more than 50 new or relocated processing plants and expansions came online during that period, including 11 each from Targa Resources and Energy Transfer’s ETC Field Services unit and eight from Enterprise Products Partners. (The gray dots in Figure 2 below show the plants that started up in 2022-24, while the purple dots indicate the plants with 2025 online dates and the dark-blue dots show the ones that came online in Q1 2026.)At least another 4 Bcf/d of additional processing capacity is under development in the Permian and expected to start up between Q2 2026 — i.e., now — and mid-2028: an even 2 Bcf/d in the Midland, just over 1.4 Bcf/d in the West Texas part of the Delaware, and 625 MMcf/d in the New Mexico part. (No projects announced so far have online dates past Q2 2028.) A total of nine new processing plants and two expansion projects (combined capacity about 2.4 Bcf/d; light-blue dots with numbers) are slated to come online by the end of this year, including:
- In Q2, Kinetik Midstream’s 200-MMcf/d Kings Landing II in Eddy County, NM (#1 dot); Targa’s 275-MMcf/d Falcon II (#2 dot) in Culberson County, TX, in the Delaware Basin; and, in the Midland, Targa’s 275-MMcf/d East Pembrook (#3 dot) in Upton County, TX.
- In Q3, ETC Field Services’ 275-MMcf/d Mustang Draw I (#4 dot) in Midland County, TX; Targa’s 275-MMcf/d East Driver (#5 dot) in Glasscock County, TX (also in the Midland); Producers Midstream’s 150-MMcf/d The Dude II (#6 dot) in Lea County, NM; and two as-yet-unidentified expansions by ONEOK totaling 110 MMcf/d.
- In Q4, Enterprise’s 300-MMcf/d Athena (#7 dot) in Midland County, TX; ETC Field Services’ 275-MMcf/d Mustang Draw II (#8 dot), also in Midland County; and Brazos Midstream’s 300-MMcf/d Cassidy I (#9 dot) in Glasscock County, TX — all in the Midland Basin.
Note that six of the nine plants starting up in 2026’s three remaining quarters are in the Midland. That will flip in 2027 and 2028, when virtually all of the projects slated to come online (green and yellow dots, respectively, in Figure 2 above) are in the Delaware, which has some of the Permian’s most prolific crude oil resources — and some of the highest gas-to-oil ratios (GORs) — and that we expect will experience the fastest growth in associated gas production over the next few years.Figure 3 above shows historic and projected growth in Delaware Basin gross gas production in the 2022-28 period (dark-blue layer for the Texas part and light-blue layer for the New Mexico part) as well as growth in Delaware processing capacity over the same period (black line). As you can see, it’s been a horse race, with midstreamers struggling to keep pace with the production gains. (Surplus processing capacity in place prior to 2022 dealt with the gross gas above the black line.) Also, keep in mind that it’s not unusual for associated gas to be produced in New Mexico wells and piped as rich, unprocessed gas across the state line for processing in West Texas, where it’s easier to get processing capacity permitted and built. (Sometimes the gas is treated in New Mexico to reduce the high levels of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide in some gas produced there — see our three-part series on sour-gas-related production in The Land of Enchantment.) Assuming that gas takeaway issues out of the Permian are resolved for good later this year and Waha gas prices stay strong from then on, we expect gross gas production in the Delaware Basin to continue rising well into the 2030s. That, in turn, will require 4 to 6 Bcf/d of additional processing capacity — beyond what’s already planned, that is — by the middle of the next decade.
According to the latest data from Baker Hughes, the number of active oil and gas rigs in major shale basins in the United States remained generally stable during the week ending April 24. -- The Permian Basin, as the largest shale-producing region in the United States, saw its rig count remain unchanged from last week, continuing the recent stable pattern of platform operations. Rig activity in the Eagle Ford Shale, Williston Basin, and Niobrara Shale also stayed steady, with no significant fluctuations observed. Notably, the Haynesville Shale added one rig this week, making it the only area among the seven major basins to experience a change—a possible indicator of minor adjustments in the region’s natural gas development activities. Meanwhile, the Utica Shale in the Appalachian region kept its rig count at previous levels. This week’s rig data reflects a cautious operating strategy in the US shale oil and gas industry under the current oil price environment. Except for Haynesville, the other six major basins have not adjusted drilling scale; producers appear more inclined to respond to market changes by optimizing the efficiency of their existing assets rather than expanding drilling plans.
Enviros sue over Trump green light to Gulf oil drilling - Environmental groups are suing the Trump administration over the Interior Department’s approval of an ultra-deepwater oil drilling project in the Gulf of Mexico.The petition filed Monday in the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals targets BP’s first completely new oil field in the Gulf since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster and the groups say it endangers the health of Gulf residents, ecosystems, and the fishing and tourism industries.“The Trump administration has teed up the entire Gulf region for a Deepwater Horizon sequel with its approval of BP’s extremely risky ultra-deepwater drilling project,” said Earthjustice senior attorney Brettny Hardy. “The greenlighting of BP’s project sets a dangerously low bar for oil-and-gas companies that want to drill in our public waters. The Interior Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Net Imports of Crude Oil Plummet to Record Low -According to the EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR) for the week ended April 10, U.S. commercial crude inventories posted their first draw in nine weeks, as imports and exports swung sharply in opposite directions. Imports plummeted by 1 MMb/d to just under 5.3 MMb/d, while exports soared by an equal magnitude in the opposite direction, reaching a seven-month high of 5.2 MMb/d. As discussed in this week's Crude Oil Billboard, the combined effect was a 2.1 MMb/d collapse in net imports to just 66 Mb/d (dashed circle in graph below), a record low that brings the U.S. within striking distance of net-exporter status for the first time in history. For context, 2026 year-to-date net imports average a much more substantial 2.6 MMb/d. On a country-by-country basis, imports weakened across key suppliers. Canadian imports declined 18% to 3.5 MMb/d, the lowest volume since late December. Additionally, crude imports from Saudi Arabia were effectively cut in half to 250 Mb/d, the lowest volume since early December.To note, the EIA's 'unaccounted-for' number also jumped from just 124 Mb/d to 1 MMb/d, suggesting either under-reported supplies or over-reported demand in the numbers. Given the scale of the swing, weekly noise, and timing discrepancies in marine movements, we suspect some degree of overstatement in this week's exports. However, even after adjusting for potentially overstated exports, net imports remain exceptionally tight by recent standards.
Gulf Coast Crude Oil Shipping Costs to Asia and Europe Soar, Then Crash Back to Earth -From early February to late March, shipping costs for crude tankers departing the U.S. Gulf Coast rose sharply across all vessel classes and destinations as global trade flows adjusted to the disruption of Middle East supply. Rates increased most dramatically on the Asia route. Over that period, the cost of shipping crude from Houston to Asia (left graph) rose by roughly $13.50/bbl (about +130%) on Aframax vessels (roughly 600–750 Mbbl capacity) and by about $6–$7/bbl (+80%) on VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers, about 2.0 MMbbl capacity). On the Europe route (right graph), the increase was similarly pronounced, with VLCC costs rising by approximately $5/bbl (+100%) and Aframax rates increasing by about $10.50/bbl (+150%). The gains reflected rapid repositioning of ships, longer voyage distances, and strong demand for available tonnage as trade patterns shifted due to the Iran war. That late-March surge marked the high point for shipping costs. Aframax rates to Asia peaked near $25/bbl in the last week of March, then fell sharply, declining by roughly $12/bbl (about 50%) to the low-teens in recent days. On the Europe route, the reversal was similar, with Aframax costs dropping by about $10/bbl (roughly 55%). Rates for larger vessels also eased, though more gradually. VLCC costs from Houston to Asia declined by roughly $5–$6/bbl (about 30%–35%), while shipments to Europe fell by about $3–$4/bbl (roughly 30%–35%) from their early-April highs. Three factors explain the divergence between vessel classes. First, a growing share of U.S. crude exports — particularly longer-haul shipments to Asia — has shifted toward VLCC cargoes, reducing demand for smaller fixtures. Second, vessel availability has expanded at the smaller end of the fleet due to several factors, including petroleum-product tankers shifting into crude service. Third, the cost structure for VLCC exports is inherently more logistics-intensive. Because most Houston-area terminals cannot fully load a VLCC at the dock, exporters rely on reverse lightering and offshore transfers, which sustain costs even as freight rates soften. Those costs for VLCCs are included in the per-barrel values shown in the graph. The result is a market that has transitioned from disruption to rebalancing, with Aframax rates normalizing quickly while VLCC costs have also come down, but not by quite as much. Until the Iran war ends and the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened, tanker rates — like all other costs and prices across energy markets — will remain highly volatile.
Enbridge loses Supreme Court bid to transfer Michigan pipeline fight - The Supreme Court will not allow a federal court to decide whether Michigan improperly ordered the shutdown of an oil pipeline beneath the Great Lakes, handing a win to state officials and opponents of the project. In a unanimous decision Wednesday led by Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the high court rejected Enbridge Energy’s argument that it should be allowed to transfer a lawsuit related to Line 5 from state to federal court — even after the company missed a 30-day deadline to request to move the case. Enbridge is challenging a 2020 order from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) and the state Department of Natural Resources revoking an easement for the more than 70-year-old pipeline to cross 4 miles beneath the Straits of Mackinac. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel (D) initially defended the order in state court. Enbridge did not seek to remove the case until after briefs had been filed, and the case was argued before the court about two years later. Nessel argued that Enbridge had ample opportunities to transfer the case and that the lawsuit belonged in state court because it was focused on issues of Michigan law. But Enbridge claimed the suit should be before a federal bench in part because Whitmer’s order conflicted with a 1977 pipeline transit treaty between the United States and Canada, which bars state and local officials from halting the flow of hydrocarbons across the border.
Trump Administration Issues New Presidential Permits for Enbridge Pipelines | RBN Energy -The Trump administration on Wednesday issued nine presidential permits authorizing oil and liquid material crossings along the U.S.-Canada border for Enbridge’s lines. According to analysis from our friends at Plainview Energy, eight of these permits appear to serve as replacements or “refreshes” of existing authorizations. These updates are likely intended to strengthen legal language and modernize the regulatory standing of critical conduits. The refreshed permits cover Enbridge Mainline’s six existing lines in Pembina County, North Dakota, the primary gateway to the U.S. Additionally, the permits cover two of Enbridge’s Mainline export lines from St. Clair, Michigan back into Canada. The Southern Lights and Bakken lines also received refreshed permits covering their existing infrastructure. While much of the administrative action reinforces existing operations, there is an issuance of a ninth permit for a “newly constructed 24-inch pipeline” tied to Enbridge’s Bakken Pipeline, which may act as a replacement to the current 12-inch border crossing line. This new authorization ties in with Enbridge’s Mainline Optimization 2 project (MLO2), which would see the re-reversal of Enbridge’s underutilized 145-Mb/d Bakken pipeline, which currently moves barrels from North Dakota to the Mainline in Saskatchewan, and a tie-in to the underutilized 750-Mb/d Energy Transfer-operated Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL; red line in map below). This larger 24-inch border crossing line is likely needed if MLO2 is to achieve its full 250 Mb/d. MLO2, has a targeted startup in 2028.As we discussed in our recent blog (Let’s Get It Started), Enbridge sanctioned the Mainline Optimization Phase 1 (MLO1) project in Q4 2025. It will add 150 Mb/d of capacity via “capital work, pumps, drag reducing agents, et cetera,” and is expected to be complete by late 2027. MLO1 will also add 100 Mb/d of capacity on Enbridge’s Flanagan South Pipeline (burgundy line in Figure 1) that runs from Flanagan, IL, to Cushing, OK, and is estimated to cost $1.4 billion. We’ve covered this project and others in our recent Roundabout! report. This new multiclient study examines the emerging role of the Rockies corridor and the Guernsey, WY hub as a key conduit for moving Canadian heavy crude toward downstream markets, including the Gulf Coast.
Canada Approves Enbridge's $4 Billion Sunrise Gas Expansion Canada has approved Enbridge's C$4 billion Sunrise Expansion, clearing the way for a major buildout of British Columbia gas infrastructure that will add 300 million cubic feet per day of capacity to the Westcoast pipeline system. Construction is scheduled to begin in July, with the project targeted to enter service in late 2028, Enbridge said in a Friday press release. The expansion includes about 139 kilometers of new pipeline through 11 looping segments, additional compression, and upgrades to existing facilities along the Westcoast system, which already moves up to 3.6 billion cubic feet per day.The added capacity comes as British Columbia prepares for rising gas demand tied to power generation, industrial growth and LNG exports, including facilities such as Woodfibre LNG. Ottawa explicitly tied the approval to energy security and supply reliability as Canadian policymakers push infrastructure projects fasterFor Enbridge, the project expands a critical gas artery at a time when North American natural gas infrastructure is increasingly being viewed through both export and security lenses.The company said Sunrise is expected to contribute more than C$3 billion to Canada's economy and support roughly 2,500 construction jobs. Enbridge also said more than C$52 million has already been spent with Indigenous businesses, while the Westcoast system itself includes Indigenous ownership through the Stonlasec8 Indigenous Alliance.Major greenfield pipeline approvals in Canada have become harder to secure. Sunrise is an expansion line alongside an existing corridor, and expansion projects often carries fewer regulatory obstacles than entirely new routes.The project also strengthens feedgas positioning for Canada's LNG ambitions. British Columbia has been moving to establish itself as a Pacific Coast export hub, and additional takeaway capacity supports that buildout.Sunrise adds roughly 8% to the Westcoast system's current capacity, which is noteworthy in a market where new LNG demand, domestic heating demand, and industrial loads compete for the same resource.The approval also comes as North American natural gas infrastructure has drawn renewed strategic attention, with governments increasingly linking pipeline expansions to affordability, reliability and trade.
Alaska LNG Project Clearing Hurdles, Inching Toward Reality -Glenfarne Group LLC continues to advance the Alaska LNG project and some work on its first phase could begin soon. At A Glance:
- Early pipeline work expected first
- Tentative deals to sell 13 Mt/y signed
- All federal permits secured
Canadian Rig Counts - Gas Rig Count May Have Bottomed, Oil Rig Count Down By 6 | RBN Energy -The Western Canadian rig count fell by 5 rigs for the week ending April 17, according to Baker Hughes data. The gas-directed rig count was up 1 to 53 rigs (blue line in left-hand chart below), while the oil-directed rig count was down 6 to 75 rigs (red line in right-hand chart below). After following last year's rig count quite closely so far in 2026, the gas-directed rig count has recently plateaued and is now ahead of this time last year by 6 rigs, while the oil-directed rig count was 6 rigs below this time last year, and continued its typical decline during spring break-up season. For gas-directed rig counts, active rigs in Alberta rose by 2 last week to 42 (vs. 32 at this time last year), while active rigs in B.C. fell by 1 to 11 (vs. 15 at this time last year). The gains in Alberta came from the Foothills Front region, where much of the province's drilling for Montney and Deep Basin gas wells occurs, where 30 rigs were running vs. 25 at this time last year.Active oil-directed rigs in Alberta fell by 2 last week to 70 (vs. 76 at this time last year), with all the declines coming from Northeast Alberta (oil sands region) where the rig count has been uncharacteristically strong through spring break-up season so far (39 vs. 24 at this time last year). Active oil-directed rigs in Saskatchewan fell by 3 to 5 (vs. 9 at this time last year), and in British Columbia fell from 1 to zero.
Questerre to sell non-operated Kakwa Central assets for $23.5 million - Questerre Energy Corporation today it has entered into a binding agreement to sell its non-operated minority working interest in its Kakwa Central assets for total consideration of $23.5 million.Pursuant to a purchase and sale agreement, the consideration includes a cash payment of $23.5 million, the assumption of decommissioning liabilities for the assets as well as the Company's commitments under its firm transportation and processing contracts. The agreement is scheduled to close on May 1, 2026, and is subject to receipt of requisite approvals and customary adjustments. Production from the Kakwa Central assets averaged approximately 650 boe per day during the first quarter of 2026. Post the disposition, Questerre production is expected to average over 4,500 boe per day including production from its Kakwa North assets where it holds a 50% working interest.Michael Binnion, President and Chief Executive Officer of Questerre, commented, "We invested in Kakwa Central over 14 years ago to extend the condensate rich window of the Montney. It was a success and we jointly drilled over 40 wells to develop these lands. This sale strengthens our balance sheet without the issuance of any equity capital. We are focused on developing our other assets including our adjacent lands at Kakwa North." Questerre is an energy technology and innovation company focused on responsibly developing oil and gas resources. The Company holds a significant natural gas discovery in the Quebec Utica shale, widely recognized as one of the most important undeveloped natural gas resources in Eastern Canada. The Company believes society can successfully transition its energy portfolio. With new clean technologies and innovation to responsibly produce and use energy, society can sustain both human progress and the natural environment.
LNG Canada Nearing Full Capacity as Iran War Squeezes Global Supply - LNG Canada is set to hit full capacity in April as the world’s supply of the super-chilled fuel was dented by conflict in the Middle East and demand for North American cargoes has jumped. NGI chart showing LNG Canada monthly exports by destination country from mid-2025 to mid-2026, with shipments rising above 1.0 million tons in early 2026. South Korea, Japan and China lead demand, while the 3-month moving average trends higher before easing, reflecting shifting Asian LNG import patterns. At A Glance:
April loadings approach 15 cargoes
Asian buyers chase constrained supply
Phase 2 decision draws closer
Flaring Scrutiny Intensifies at LNG Canada During Export Ramp-Up --The British Columbia Energy Regulator (BCER) has ordered LNG Canada to investigate and possibly fix issues at the commissioning export facility after investigating flaring events earlier in the year. At A Glance:
- Regulator cites black-smoke permit violations
- BCER requires corrective measures by October
- Order follows January flaring incidents
Pipeline leak triggers Gulf of Mexico oil spill - A recent oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico was caused by a leak in a pipeline in the Abkatun-Cantarell area, the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) said on Wednesday, News.Az reports, citing Xinhua. Pemex Director Víctor Rodríguez Padilla stated that an internal investigation identified mechanical failures and previously unreported repairs in the pipeline, along with evidence of a hydrocarbon leak that had earlier been denied by operational units. He added that satellite imagery, aerial surveillance, and drift modeling confirmed the damage site as the source of the oil slick. Authorities have launched a coordinated response to contain the spill and reduce environmental damage. Cleanup operations have so far covered 48 beaches, with approximately 915 tons of waste collected, including oil mixed with sand, debris, and sargassum. The spill was first detected on Feb. 6, prompting federal agencies to begin monitoring and containment efforts while continuing to assess its environmental impact.
Pemex Undersea Pipeline Found to Cause Gulf Oil Spill - An oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that soiled beaches, killed wildlife and sparked outrage from environmental groups was caused by a leaky pipeline owned by state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, the company said. A government investigation determined that an undersea pipeline near the Abkatun offshore platform was the cause of the leak, Pemex Chief Executive Officer Victor Rodriguez said at a press briefing on Thursday evening. Three employees were fired as a result of the accident, he added. The amount of crude that spilled into the Gulf is still being determined, Mexico’s Science Minister Rosaura Ruiz said at the same press conference. The oil facility is close to the Bay of Campeche, off the Mexican coast. The spill, which spread from Mexico’s southern Tabasco state to as far north as Tamaulipas, underscores Pemex’s struggles to clean up its environmental track record after repeated disasters, explosions and accidents in recent years. Those events have compounded the company’s financial woes as it seeks to reverse slumping production and emerge from under more than $85 billion in debt. Mexico’s government began investigating the cause of the leak last month, initially suggesting that natural oil seepages, illegal dumping from tankers or faulty Pemex infrastructure could be to blame. Environmental groups argued that faulty facilities were the most likely cause of the pollution. Environmental groups including Greenpeace and the Mexico Alliance Against Fracking have estimated that at as much as 800 tons of hydrocarbons have spilled into the Gulf as a result of the accident.
Debt Overhaul Clouds Outlook for NFE Mexico LNG Projects, Agua Dulce Demand - New Fortress Energy Inc. (NFE) is exploring a step back from LNG export development in Mexico as it works to finalize a debt restructuring plan by next month.Map of the Sur de Texas–Tuxpan pipeline route showing natural gas flows from South Texas into eastern Mexico, connecting to Altamira and Tuxpan, with LNG export facilities, pipeline infrastructure, and NGI Mexico gas price index locations highlighted. At A Glance:
FLNG strategy pivots toward partner funding
NFE secures 97% creditor support
Agua Dulce near-term outlook uncertain
Mexican Upstream Trade Group Urges Reforms as Natural Gas Imports Spring Up Mexico’s natural gas imports are picking up as the country moves toward its high-demand summer period.Chart comparing NGI’s Agua Dulce, Waha bidweek natural gas prices and average U.S. pipeline exports to Mexico from April 2023 to April 2026. Agua Dulce prices generally trade above Waha, while export volumes fluctuate around 6.0-8.0 Bcf/d, illustrating the relationship between South Texas pricing, Permian gas weakness and cross-border natural gas demand. At A Glance:
Imports hit 7.74 Bcf peak
TransPecos work trims border flows
Shale push targets domestic output
Venezuelan Natural Gas Reserves Offer ‘Interesting Opportunities’ for Exports - Venezuelan natural gas resources could be a major opportunity for U.S. upstream companies due to advantageous regulations over the fuel’s development, according to Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin America Energy Program at Rice University’s Baker Institute. At A Glance:
- Private rules ease upstream entry
- Dragon sits near Trinidad LNG
- Perla keeps export options alive
Natural Gas Buyers Face Mounting Uncertainty as Iran War Further Disrupts Global Energy Flows -- The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran approached the two-month mark without a clear off-ramp in view, leaving energy buyers to grapple with a host of uncertainties as they try to make strategic decisions in an increasingly competitive natural gas market. Map of the Persian Gulf showing LNG import and export terminals across Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, including key facilities such as Ras Laffan, Das Island, and Jebel Ali, with the Strait of Hormuz highlighted as a critical chokepoint for global LNG flows. At A Glance:
Iran war upends energy flows
Global, U.S. NatGas prices choppy
LNG exporters near capacity
LNG Demand Seen Rising on European Cold Snap, but Asian Weakness Keeps Gains in Check - Global natural gas demand is expected to see an uneven but humble gain in weather-driven demand over the next two weeks as conditions over key European markets offset warm U.S. patterns.NGI charts showing trailing 365-day mean temperatures for Northwest Europe, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo as of April 20, 2026. Temperatures follow seasonal patterns, with winter dips below normal and recent rebounds toward average levels, reflecting trends that influence global LNG and natural gas demand. At A Glance:
LNG flows rise despite mild weather
U.S. shoulder season dampens consumption
Asia softness caps LNG demand upside
European Energy Watchdog Warns Hitting Natural Gas Storage Targets Could Prove Difficult -The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) said Thursday that Europe’s regulation for member countries to meet natural gas storage targets by winter may push prices higher this summer as the continent competes with Asia for supply that’s been limited by the Iran war.Bar chart of Europe LNG imports by region of origin from 2020 to 2025, showing the United States as the largest supplier with volumes rising above 250 million tons, followed by Russia, Qatar, and North Africa, highlighting shifting supply dynamics after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At A Glance:
EU spot demand could increase
80% storage refill feasible
Higher levels difficult without new supplies
EU Looks Beyond LNG in New Push for Energy Independence - In the wake of the invasion of Ukraine, European Union (EU) leaders forged new energy regulations to boost natural gas storage and procure LNG from the United States, but policymakers are now seeking to reduce exposure to international volatility. Chart showing global natural gas futures settlements through 2029, comparing Henry Hub, JPN/KOR LNG, and TTF prices, with Henry Hub near $3.46/MMBtu for the 12-month strip as of April 22, 2026, while Asian and European LNG benchmarks trend higher near $14-15/MMBtu before declining toward $8-9/MMBtu by 2029. At A Glance:
EU pivots from NatGas to renewables
Risk premium fades from TTF prices
Storage refill needs boost LNG buying
Wheatstone LNG Resumes Full Production, Adding Supplies to Market Rattled by Iran War -- Map of Australia highlighting major LNG liquefaction facilities including Gorgon, Wheatstone, Pluto, Prelude, Ichthys, Darwin, and Gladstone, along with key market hubs, illustrating the country’s role as a leading global LNG exporter. Despite an extended ceasefire, the U.S. Navy continues to blockade Iranian ports, creating a stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz that has again lifted global commodity prices. Iran has responded by seizing vessels and announced on Thursday (April 23) the first revenue from tolls imposed on vessels crossing the strait. About a fifth of global oil and LNG supplies passed through the waterway before the war started on Feb. 28.
Russian oil flow to Slovakia via Druzhba pipeline resumes - Bratislava confirmed that the country started receiving crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline early on Thursday, after a three-month halt. The flow of Russian oil to Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline that crosses Ukraine has resumed, Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Saková said on Thursday morning. "The Economy Ministry informs that today at 2 am the reception of oil to Slovakia through the Druzhba pipeline was resumed," Saková said in a ministry statement. This confirmation puts an end to a months-long standoff between Ukraine, the EU and Hungary and Slovakia when the transit of Russian cheap oil stopped after a Russian strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure at the end of January. The confirmation is set to unblock the €90-billion loan for Ukraine, which has been vetoed by Hungary and Slovakia since February, despite being initially agreed upon in December. The disbursement is scheduled to begin between late May and early June. Hungary’s energy giant MOL said on Wednesday it was informed by the operator of the Ukrainian section of the pipeline, Ukrtransnafta, that "the receipt of crude oil from Belarus via the Druzhba pipeline system began in Ukraine at noon today." Druzhba pipeline, which brings cheap Russian crude to Slovakia and Hungary, went offline in late January after being damaged in a Russian drone attack. Budapest and Bratislava accused Kyiv of deliberately withholding transit. Ukraine said the halt was forced by the need to repair the pipeline.
Finland to protect coast from risk of Russian oil spill - Finland is taking measures to protect its Baltic Sea coast from the "high" risk of an oil spill from Russia's shadow fleet, installing a permanent oil boom fastening system, a Finnish foundation said Wednesday. The Nordic country has repeatedly expressed fears of a major Baltic Sea oil spill from a tanker belonging to Russia's so-called shadow fleet — ageing and often uninsured vessels used to circumvent Western sanctions against Moscow. Rings will be bolted into the bedrock of islands in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland archipelago, allowing oil containment booms to be attached quickly in the event of an oil spill, the John Nurminen Foundation, which specialises in protecting the Baltic Sea, said in a statement. The booms would be able to contain the oil before it reaches shore or sensitive ecosystems. The foundation is launching the project "Bolt it for the Baltic Sea!" together with Finnish authorities. "The risk of an environmental disaster is currently high in the Gulf of Finland due to anomalies detected in the navigation systems of the merchant navy," Jukka Pekka Lumilahti, head of rescue operations at the Gulf of Finland coast guard, said in the statement. "The anchor points installed in the archipelago significantly speed up pollution control operations," he said. The frequent scrambling of GPS signals in the region makes it more difficult for ships to navigate, while shadow fleet ships are known to switch off their AIS tracking systems. According to the foundation, recent drone attacks by Ukraine on the Russian oil ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, located at the far end of the Gulf of Finland, have increased the risk of an oil spill. A collision or grounding of a shadow fleet tanker could result in thousands of tonnes of crude oil spilling into the water, with fatal consequences for the fragile ecosystems.
Paper Oil Blinks While Physical Supply Tightens -- Extreme volatility in crude futures prices has eased in recent days, although the market reacted with an 8% jump early Monday to the news of failed U.S.-Iran talks and the beginning of a U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders continue to react to any signal of how the worst-ever disruption energy market would unfold, but with uncertainty still very high, oil market participants bet on and try to predict movements.The worst of the volatility may have passed, as investors and speculators appear to have exhausted their capacity to respond to the constantly shifting narratives of the Trump Administration, analysts say. It appears that the oil market is gradually becoming used to the price swings in either direction that follow each post of U.S. President Donald Trump regarding Iran, the state of negotiations, or the navigability status of the Strait of Hormuz, the key oil chokepoint which handled about 20% of daily global oil and gas flows before the war. Some say many of President Trump’s public posts are negotiation tactics and traders may have already moved from peak fear and peak panic and into calmer trade awaiting real outcomes.“Markets have reached peak uncertainty,” Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, told CNBC earlier this week.“The reaction function is no longer as extreme as before.”These comments came hours after President Trump announced the U.S. Navy would blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade has now begun.But while it is part of whatever negotiating tactics the U.S. President is using, the U.S. blockade only exacerbates the real physical constraints to crude oil flows. These have already been severely hampered by the seven-week-long de facto closure of the world’s most important shipping lane for oil, gas, fuels, and fertilizer. The blockade on top of the blockade and the Iranian threats that no port in the Persian Gulf would be safe if Iranian ports are blocked further push back the time when the Strait of Hormuz may reopen to free traffic and begin easing the increasingly tightening physical oil supply.This would take months, even if the Strait of Hormuz opened to free traffic today.As a result of the blocked traffic, global oil and fuel supply is shrinking and energy prices are soaring, including U.S. gasoline prices that are now more than $1 per gallon more expensive than seven weeks ago.The U.S. blockade now poses a key question to analysts, policy makers, and war decision makers: “does a closed Strait hurt Iran faster than it hurts the global economy?” Erik Meyersson, Chief EM Strategist at SEB Bank wrote in a Monday note.Moreover, the U.S. blockade raises the value of keeping the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen out of the war, Meyersson said.The Houthis in the past two years have hit commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – the only route for Saudi crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and for the Suez Canal to remain open to traffic. So far in this war, they have kept a low profile and have not moved to impede vessel traffic off Yemen’s coast. But no one can predict with any certainty that the Houthis will stay out of the mess in the Middle East. “Both the US and Iranian sides have once again signalled the extent of their respective entrenched positions,” Meyersson noted.“As such, given the time constraints and likely ongoing military preparations on both sides, absent a diplomatic breakthrough, the road to continued warfare remains open.”Oil futures traders are betting on how they believe the conflict would unfold, hoping for the best but wary of the worst. Still, they are a bit better prepared to handle all the conflicting signals they are being given by the hour.Not prepared are the physical crude markets, where prices have soared to near all-time highs or record-highs, including compared to the 2008 price rally just before the financial crisis.The sharp decline in crude futures last week was likely primarily driven by an overcrowded long position, rather than any meaningful easing in underlying fundamentals, which continue to point to a tightening physical market, Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday.Crude futures were trading slightly lower than $100 per barrel as of Tuesday morning. But the price of physical crude for immediate delivery has soared amid the supply constraints and is about $40 per barrel more expensive than the futures.Brent futures may have sunk below $100 per barrel, but constraints are intensifying amid the supply shock, with the physical price of a key North Sea blend, Forties, surging last week to a record high of as much as $147 per barrel.The surge in physical crude prices reflects the massive supply shock, with about 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and unable to go to refiners.The huge $50 a barrel premium of the physical crude over the futures prices signals that the real oil supply shock is enormous, even if the sentiment on the futures market is tentatively hopeful that there is still a way to resolve the Middle East crisis soon.
Oil prices rise anew amid a US-Iran standoff in the Strait of Hormuz (AP) — Oil prices rose in early trading Sunday as a standoff between Iran and the U.S. prevented tankers from using the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf waterway that is crucial to global energy supplies.The price of U.S. crude oil increased 6.4% to $87.90 per barrel an hour after trading resumed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The price of Brent crude, the international standard, climbed 5.8% to $95.64 per barrel. The market reaction followed more than two days of lifted hopes and dashed expectations involving the strait. Crude prices plunged more than 9% Friday after Iran said it would fully reopen the strait, which it effectively controls, to commercial traffic.Tehran reversed that decision and fired on several vessels Saturday after President Donald Trump said a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports would remain in effect. On Sunday, Trump said the U.S. attacked and forcibly seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship that allegedly tried to get around the blockade. Iran’s joint military command vowed to respond.Sunday’s higher prices wiped out much of the declines seen Friday, signaling renewed doubts about how soon ships will again transport the vast amounts oil the world gets from the Middle East.The US-Israeli war against Iran, now in its eighth week, has created one of the worst global energy crises in decades. Countries in Asia and Europe that import much of their oil from the Gulf have felt the most impact of halted supplies and production cuts, although rapidly rising gasoline, diesel and jet fuel prices are affecting businesses and consumers worldwide.Asked when he thought U.S. motorists would again see gas cost less than $3 a gallon on average, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said prices at the pump might not go down that much until next year.“But prices have likely peaked, and they’ll start going down,” Wright told CNN’s “State of the Union” on Sunday.
Oil prices jump, stocks pull back on US-Iran talks uncertainty - Oil prices surged on Monday and global equities eased as markets grew increasingly concerned that the cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran might not hold and a second round of talks was hanging in the balance, while tensions over the Strait of Hormuz once again escalated. Brent crude futures rose about 6% to $95.85 a barrel. MSCI's world share index was last down around 0.3%, with Europe's cross-regional STOXX 600 down 1.1%, after Asia's equity markets shrugged off risks to advance. S&P 500 futures were 0.65% lower. Concerns grew on Monday that the cease-fire between the United States and Iran might not hold after the U.S. said it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade and Iran vowed to retaliate. However, lingering hopes for a deal to end the seven-week crisis continued to support Asian equities, even as Tehran said it was not currently planning to attend peace talks. Crude plunged on Friday while U.S. stocks rallied after Iran said it would again allow ships to pass through the waterway, through which a fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) usually passes, citing the cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon. However, over the weekend, it said the strait was closed again to traffic while the U.S. has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dived more than 11% and Brent shed 9% in response to developments on Friday. But both contracts jumped sharply on Monday, days before the end of a two-week ceasefire, owing to the ongoing U.S. blockade and after an American destroyer fired on and seized an Iranian ship that tried to evade it. Tehran warned it would retaliate. Kpler data showed that more than 20 vessels carrying oil products, metals, gas and fertilizer passed through the strait on Saturday, the busiest day for the chokepoint since March 1. Still, shipping data on Monday indicated that only three vessels transited the waterway over the past 12 hours, a Reuters report said. The blockade of Iranian ports has been a significant sticking point in negotiations between the two countries, and state broadcaster IRIB cited Iranian sources as saying "there are currently no plans to participate in the next round of Iran-U.S. talks" in Pakistan. The Fars and Tasnim news agencies had earlier cited anonymous sources as saying "the overall atmosphere cannot be assessed as very positive," adding that lifting the U.S. blockade was a precondition for negotiations. There has so far been only a single, 21-hour negotiating session held in Islamabad on April 11 that ended inconclusively, though groundwork for fresh talks continued afterwards. "We're offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it," Trump said in a social media post Sunday, while also renewing his threats against Iran's infrastructure if a deal is not made. But Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned that any attempt to pass through the strait without permission "will be considered cooperation with the enemy, and the offending vessel will be targeted." Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei said the blockade was "a violation" of the cease-fire. Chris Weston at Pepperstone said traders were assessing "whether the cease-fire can be salvaged through this week's diplomatic talks, with recalibration on the probability of military escalation." The outlook for further negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and a quick resolution seemed uncertain. "Whether this impasse proves to be merely a detour on the path to a resolution remains to be seen, but more volatility would seem the most likely outcome," Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said in a note. "We always thought there would be some swings and roundabouts within that, rather than a straight linear path to the end outcome," said Investec's Horsfield. Bonds, which rallied on Friday, retreated and the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries rose 2.6 basis points to 4.2697%, while the yield on German 10-year government bonds was last 3.6 bps higher at 3.0015%. The dollar, which was sold for the best part of the past two weeks, broadly steadied, trading at $1.1761 per euro. Wall Street indexes touched record highs on Friday, supported by expectations of robust first-quarter earnings, the bulk of which come this week. British inflation data, U.S. retail sales and European Purchasing Managers' Index figures are also due through the week, though much of the market's focus will be on Gulf shipping. "The critical barometer of geopolitical risk has been distilled into one data point: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz," "Peace talks matter, but the immediate focus is on oil and other supply shortages driving inflation."
Oil Jumps on Renewed Hormuz Closure, Maritime Hostilities -- Crude and product futures leapt about 5% on Monday morning after Tehran on the weekend reimposed traffic restrictions over the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian ship as the U.S. embargo on Iranian ports continued. Iranian gunboats also reportedly opened fire on an Indian-flagged vessel and other ships in the strait. By 7:55 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for May delivery was up $4.50, or 5.5%, to $88.35 bbl, after reaching an intra-day high of $91.2 bbl. ICE Brent for June rose $4.27, or 4.7%, to $94.65 bbl, following a session peak at $97.50 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery advanced $0.1646 to $3.5620 gallon, while front-month NYMEX RBOB futures climbed $0.0828 to $3.0876 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.112 points against a basket of foreign currencies to 98.01 points. Crude futures reversed most of Friday's slump of up to 12%, which came after Tehran announced that it will allow traffic to flow unimpeded on the Strait of Hormuz in reaction to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Idle tankers in the Persian Gulf immediately set sail to attempt passage, but only a few traversed the waterway amid confusion over the status of the strait. Tehran said the reopening was conditioned on the U.S. lifting its embargo on Iranian vessels and ports. It declared the strait shut again after a U.S. warship fired upon and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship off an Iranian port. Iranian military gunboats engaged at least three commercial ships, including an Indian-flagged ship, that it said were attempting to transit to transit the Hormuz without approval. The brief reopening of the strait had led to expectations of a resumption of oil flows on the Hormuz, which typically provides passage to some 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids that have been stranded for seven weeks now, creating the largest oil supply disruption in history. The Iranian concession was also interpreted as a sign that a permanent negotiated agreement or at least an extension of the ceasefire, set to expire Tuesday, between the warring parties was moving closer, lowering the geopolitical risk premium. Both sides called the others' actions over the weekend a breach of the ceasefire. The Iranian military declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until the U.S. lifted its blockade, and government officials said the ongoing U.S. embargo was a major roadblock to ongoing diplomatic efforts. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had committed a serious violation of the ceasefire but remained optimistic about a peace deal. Tehran, however, said that there is no plan for a second round of negotiations for now.
Oil prices rise 6% on fears of US-Iran ceasefire collapse (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped around 6% in Monday trading on uncertainty over peace talks between the U.S. and Iran after violence flared around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures settled $5.10, or 5.64%, higher to $95.48 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate advanced $5.76, or 6.87%, at $89.61. Both contracts had tumbled by 9% on Friday for their largest daily declines since April 18 after Iran said that passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remainder of the ceasefire. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Over the weekend, the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to break through its blockade while Iran said it would retaliate, heightening fears of a resumption in hostilities. "The goodwill that was generated on Friday has totally evaporated," With a two-week ceasefire set to expire later this week, the renewed hostilities cast doubts over prospects for a second round of talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan. Iran is considering attending the peace talks, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday, but no decision had been made. The Gulf nation's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his Pakistani counterpart Ishaq Dar that the U.S. "continued violations of the ceasefire" are a major obstacle to the continuation of the diplomatic process, an Iranian foreign ministry statement said on Monday. Trump, asked over the weekend about the chance of a ceasefire extension, said: "I don't know. Maybe not. Maybe I won't extend it. But the blockade is going to remain." Despite uncertainty over the ceasefire, analysts noted oil prices were off the highs seen at the beginning of the Middle East conflict. "As long as we don't have full-scale warfare, my feeling is that we're going to slowly but steadily grind lower," s Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied gas supply, remained at a virtual standstill on Monday, with only three crossings in the past 12 hours, shipping data showed. "The strait remains under a double blockade," said Nikos Tzabouras, market analyst at Tradu, noting a looming ceasefire deadline and uncertainty over any agreement being reached. "These factors can push crude even higher and, even if a resolution is achieved, it will be hard for prices to return to pre-war levels as supply is unlikely to be restored overnight." More than 20 ships passed through the strait on Saturday, carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilisers, Kpler data showed. That was the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since March 1.
Oil Prices Slip As Markets Reprice Risk Ahead Of US-Iran Ceasefire Deadline --U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped nearly 2% to hover around the high-$80s per barrel, while Brent crude also retreated, reports Reuters. The decline followed a surge triggered by renewed tensions in West Asia, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. The waterway, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply flows, has become the focal point of market anxiety. Any disruption here, whether through military escalation or shipping restrictions, has an immediate and outsized impact on global prices. "The market is no longer reacting to supply and demand in the traditional sense," said an energy strategist at a Singapore-based trading firm. "It is reacting to geopolitical probabilities." That distinction is crucial. Prices are no longer being driven by consumption trends or inventory data alone, but by the perceived likelihood of conflict, or its avoidance. The strategic Strait of Hormuz continues to dominate market sentiment. This narrow waterway, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil supply passes, has become a critical flashpoint. Recent weeks have seen heightened tensions in and around the corridor, reinforcing its status as the world's most sensitive oil transit route. Oil tankers navigate the Strait of Hormuz amid rising geopolitical tension. IBT SG The current softness reflects short-term optimism around possible talks rather than any meaningful easing of supply constraints. Structural issues ranging from disrupted shipping routes to elevated insurance costs and delayed cargo movements, continue to weigh. Even in a best-case scenario where a ceasefire holds, global oil inventories are expected to decline in the coming months. Supply chains have already absorbed significant shocks, and the recovery process is likely to be gradual. The scenario leaves the market vulnerable to further disruptions, particularly in a context where spare production capacity among major producers remains limited. The situation is further complicated by the absence of a meaningful buffer in the global oil system. Unlike previous crises, when excess capacity or strategic reserves could cushion supply shocks, current conditions offer little margin for error. Any escalation in tensions could quickly push prices higher, with some projections indicating a potential surge beyond $100 per barrel in the event of sustained disruption. For import-dependent economies such as Japan and India, the stakes are significant. A prolonged period of elevated oil prices could strain fiscal balances, widen current account deficits, and add to inflationary pressures. The ripple effects would extend beyond energy markets, influencing transport costs, industrial output, and overall economic stability. What emerges from this evolving scenario is a market increasingly driven by geopolitical probabilities rather than traditional supply-demand fundamentals. Traders are simultaneously pricing in the likelihood of diplomacy, prolonged uncertainty, and outright conflict. In essence, the recent decline in crude prices offers only temporary relief. Beneath the surface, the oil market remains structurally tight and highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. The outcome of US-Iran negotiations may determine the immediate trajectory, but the broader vulnerabilities, exposed by weeks of disruption and limited supply flexibility, are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon.
Oil Prices Steady Ahead of US-Iran Talks, Ceasefire End -- Oil and product futures were mixed Tuesday morning as market participants awaited word on the U.S. and Iran continuing negotiations before a ceasefire that will expire Wednesday. Iran has so far sent no delegation of any level to Islamabad, Pakistan for the talks with the U.S., Iranian media reported, contradicting an earlier report by the Wall Street Journal. In energy markets, price volatility remained elevated amid seesawing expectations on the future of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran that hinges on the outcome of the Islamabad talks and whether Pakistan will be able to broker another extension of the ceasefire, which expires at 8:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday. Trump, in a televised interview Tuesday morning, said he no plans for an extension. At stake is the resumption of global oil flows on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has shut since the start of the war at the end of February, crippling some 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids. Whether the fighting continues after Wednesday or permanently stops has been catalyst for intra-day price swings of more than 10% Friday and 5% Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday called an extension of the ceasefire "unlikely," and Tehran said the ongoing U.S. blockade of maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports presented a major roadblock to any future negotiations. Notwithstanding the latest out of Tehran, media outlets earlier said Iranian diplomats will meet in Islamabad U.S. negotiators led by Vice President JD Vance. Crude futures tumbled as much as 12% on Friday when Iran briefly announced that the Strait of Hormuz was passable to all maritime traffic. But just a day later, the Iranian military reimposed traffic restrictions following the U.S. seizure of an Iranian-flagged ship. Prices have since clawed back most of Friday's decline. To partially ease the jam in global flows, the U.S. Treasury Department on Friday renewed a 30-day waiver on sanctioned Russian oil by four weeks. Asian refiners have increasingly turned to Russian oil to fill the gap caused by the now more than seven-week long shut-in of a fifth of global petroleum liquids flows in what the International Energy Agency has dubbed the largest oil supply disruption in history. Russian crude flows, however, have also increasingly suffered disruptions from a barrage of Ukrainian drone attacks on main oil export terminals in the Baltic and Black Seas. Moscow is reportedly set to halt flows of Kazakh crude oil to Europe through its Druzhba pipeline system starting May 1. Near 7:50 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for May delivery was down $0.32 to $89.32 bbl, and ICE Brent for June fell $0.30 to $95.18 bbl. Their respective second-month contracts edged higher. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery advanced $0.0213 to $3.5622 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures rose $0.0139 to $3.1307 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened by 0.125 points against a basket of foreign currencies to 98.03 points.
Oil Rises Ahead of WTI Expiration as Market Eyes Iran Talks The May WTI contract on its last trading session as the spot contract, traded higher as the market waited to see what direction the Iran war would take. The market was focused on whether potential talks between the U.S. and Iran would result in an extension of the existing ceasefire or a final peace agreement. The crude market posted a low of $87.76 in overnight trading before it retraced its previous losses. It breached its previous high of $91.20 and continued to trend higher ahead of the May contract’s expiration at the close. The market rallied to a high of $94.45 before it gave up some of its gains ahead of the close. The May WTI contract went off the board up $2.52 at $92.13 and the June WTI contract settled up $2.25 at $89.67. The June Brent contract ended the session up $3.00 at $98.48. Meanwhile, the product markets also ended the session higher, with the heating oil contract settling up 18.79 cents at $3.7288 and the RB market settling up 9.3 cents at $3.2098. On Tuesday, U.S. Energy Secretary, Chris Wright, said gasoline prices likely peaked last week. Retail gasoline prices have surged by more than $1/gallon since the war with Iran began in late February, reaching a high of $4.17/gallon on April 8th. According to the American Automobile Association, gasoline prices were averaging $4.02/gallon on Monday. That’s up from less than $3/gallon before the war with Iran. In an interview Sunday on CNN, the U.S. Energy Secretary said U.S. gasoline prices may remain at $3/gallon or higher until next year. Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +11% w/w to 115.89 million bbl in the week ended April 17th. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said the conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel is creating the worst energy crisis ever faced by the world. Earlier in the month, he said that he viewed the current situation in global energy markets as worse than previous crises in 1973, 1979 and 2022 combined. North Dakota’s crude output is set to increase in the coming months as increasing oil prices prompt operators to increase activity. Operators in the third largest oil-producing state are responding to higher oil prices, increasing output from existing wells while holding back on new drilling amid sharp price volatility tied to the Iran war. Nathan Anderson, director of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, said there are currently 10 hydraulic fracturing crews operating in the state, with one operator in North Dakota set to pick up an additional rig and frac crew in July. Oil production in North Dakota increased by 4,000 bpd to 1.13 million bpd in February. Citi said if disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz persist for another month, total losses could increase to about 1.3 billion barrels, with prices likely near $110/barrel in the second quarter of 2026.
Oil Prices Today: Oil prices today: Crude slips as markets weigh US-Iran talks, ceasefire extension - The Times of India - Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday after an early rise in Asian trade, as investors assessed uncertainty around US-Iran peace talks following Washington’s decision to extend the ceasefire. Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.2%, to $98.27 a barrel at 0039 GMT, after earlier touching $99.38. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 28 cents, or 0.3%, to $89.39, after climbing as high as $90.71. Both benchmarks had gained about 3% in the previous session. The price movement comes after US President said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow more time for negotiations. However, the move appeared unilateral, with no immediate confirmation from Iran or US ally Israel on whether they would adhere to the extension. Strait of Hormuz disruption keeps market on edge Market sentiment remains fragile, with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continuing to weigh on supply outlook. The key waterway, which carries about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, saw minimal activity, with only three ships passing in the last 24 hours, reported Reuters. “With the outcome of talks still unclear and the Strait of Hormuz closed, the market lacks clear direction,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, as per Reuters. He added, “Unless fighting resumes, prices are likely to stay near the current levels for now.” At the same time, the US has maintained its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a move Tehran has described as an act of war. Iran has not officially responded to the ceasefire extension, though Tasnim News Agency said Tehran did not request it and reiterated its stance of resisting the blockade. Supply signals, geopolitical tensions in focus Beyond the Middle East, geopolitical developments elsewhere are also influencing oil markets. As per Reuters, Ukraine indicated that the Druzhba pipeline could resume operations, though sources said Russia may halt oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany via the route starting May 1. Investors are also awaiting fresh US inventory data. Market sources cited by Reuters said US crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, while analysts estimate a 1.2 million-barrel draw for the week ended April 17. With ceasefire talks still uncertain and supply disruptions ongoing, oil markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term.
Oil Up as US, Iran Seize Vessels After Ditching Talks -- Oil markets rose in choppy morning trading Wednesday on tit-fort-tat vessel seizures on the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the U.S., after an abandonment of peace talks took the Middle East conflict into a new phase of uncertainty. At least three container ships on the strait were hit by gunfire from Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy, according to media reports Wednesday that said two of the vessels were seized for alleged maritime violations and transferred to Iranian shores. The Iranian actions came after the U.S. Navy said on Tuesday it intercepted and boarded a sanctioned laden Iranian tanker for the first time since the start of the conflict. Iranian oil was with few exceptions the one supply source still making it out of the Persian Gulf unimpeded before the U.S. imposed an embargo last week. Since the Middle East conflict began at end -- February, Tehran had experienced a price -- rally induced windfall in oil export revenues, which are a main source of funding for the Iranian state. The White House, prior to the imposition of its blockade on Iran, even temporarily suspended sanctions on Iranian oil to soften a global energy price spike that has begun to hurt U.S. consumers of gasoline and diesel. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally extended the current ceasefire indefinitely hours before it was set to expire. The U.S. embargo on Iran-linked maritime trade, however, was kept in place. The lifting of the blockade is one of Tehran's key conditions for participating in further peace talks and for allowing free vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The seven-week long blockade of the chokepoint of a fifth of global petroleum liquid supply has led to the most severe oil supply disruption in history and sent physical crude and product prices soaring. By 8.45 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery was up $1.36, or 1.5%, to $91.03 bbl. ICE Brent crude for June rose $1.49, or 1.5%, to $99.97 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery advanced $0.1378 to $3.8666 gallon, while front-month NYMEX RBOB futures rose $0.0283 to $3.2381 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.079 points to 98.30 against a basket of foreign currencies. Middle East tensions aside, Wednesday's market attention will be on U.S. oil inventory numbers due from the Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. EDT for the week ended April 17. The EIA last Wednesday reported a 13.1 million bbl draw to total petroleum stocks in the second week of April. The American Petroleum Institute saw this trend continue, reporting on late Tuesday across-the-board declines in domestic crude oil, gasoline and distillate fuel oil inventories. U.S. inventories have been declining amid high export demand as refiners and consumers in Europe and Asia were scrambling to fill the supply gap. Global inventories, which were at their highest in five years prior to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, have so far absorbed part of the supply shock. At least 500 million bbl of crude supply has been lost to date, leading to rapid stock drawdowns despite refiners being forced to throttle runs. The stock draws are likely to continue even once flows from the Middle East resume as it will take producers months to approach ante bellum production levels, with some supply likely permanently lost.WTI Extends Gains As US Oil Product Exports Hit Record Highs, Huge SPR Release, Production Dips | ZeroHedge - Oil prices are modestly higher this morning, erasing overnight losses on Trump's 'ceasefire extension' after Iran attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. While headline roulette continues to drive oil prices incrementally, this morning's inventory/supply data from DOE will provide some color on how the API
- Crude -4.5mm
- Cushing +700k
- Gasoline -5.2mm
- Distillates -4.6mm
DOE:
- Crude +1.925mm
- Cushing +806k
- Gasoline -4.57mm - 10th weekly draw in a row
- Distillates -3.43mm - 4th weekly draw in a row
Crude stocks unexpectedly saw a build last week (after a draw the week before) as did Cushing inventories. However, on the product side, the sizable drawdowns continue... Since the war started, Crude stocks have risen significantly, while gasoline inventories have seen non-stop draws... Source: Bloomberg Weekly US implied gasoline demand is holding up despite elevated prices. The 4-week moving average indicate a slight rise of 32,000 barrels per day, while the more volatile weekly data series ticked down by 33,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, US average gasoline prices remain above $4 a gallon. It was near $3 a gallon right before the Iran war. Source: Bloomberg The crude inventory build was more than offset by a huge 4.14mm barrel drawdown from the SPR... Graphs Source: Bloomberg. US crude production dipped once again... Notably, total US oil product exports accelerated to a new record high last week... WTI is holding gains for now, near yesterday's highs around $92... Finally, as The Wall Street Journal reports, analysts and commodities trading company executives are expressing shock at what they call a disconnect between market pricing and reality. Prices of the most-active Brent futures contract are holding below $100 a barrel despite escalating tension in the Strait of Hormuz and the cancellation of U.S.-Iran peace talks. Just today, two attacks on ships in the waterway showed that the fight for control of the strait continues and spooked shipowners and crew members. Here's what I'm hearing from experts and industry leaders at the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit in Lausanne, Switzerland: "The lack of price discovery that we are seeing is so worrying to me, because in reality we are storing up a bigger problem for the future," said Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects. Price discovery refers to the process of buyers and sellers determining the fair price of a good or an asset in the futures market. "Futures prices are meant to do the job of giving signals to sort out supply and demand. We are doing the opposite," she said in a panel. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the market didn't experience nearly as large a physical disruption as this time, and yet oil prices went much higher and stayed between $110 and $125 a barrel for months, said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Swiss commodity trader Trafigura, at the conference yesterday. "This time, the scale seems to be something where the market cannot get its head around it, and therefore it says, we are not going to think about it." The world is already losing an average of 10 million barrels a day of crude oil and 5 million barrels a day of oil products. Hits to the world's supply of fertilizers and chemicals are also severe.
Oil up $3 on drop in US fuel stocks, reports of gunfire hitting container ships in Hormuz (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up by more than $3 on Wednesday after a surprise gasoline and distillate stock draw in the U.S., and on reports of gunfire attacks on at least three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz amid a lack of progress in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. Brent crude futures settled up $3.43, or 3.48%, at $101.91 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate futures settled up $3.29, or 3.67%, to $92.96. Both benchmarks climbed about 3% on Tuesday. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. At the session high, U.S. crude futures were up by more than $4 a barrel. U.S. crude stocks rose while gasoline and distillate inventories posted surprise draws in the week ended April 17, the Energy Information Administration said. Crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels to 465.7 million barrels, while U.S. gasoline stocks (USOILG=ECI), opens new tab fell by 4.6 million barrels to 228.4 million barrels compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.5-million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles dropped by 3.4 million barrels in the week to 108.1 million barrels, versus expectations for a 2.5-million-barrel drop, the EIA data showed. At least three container ships were hit by gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy seized two vessels for what it described as maritime violations and transferred them to Iranian shores, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported. Iran and the U.S. have imposed restrictions on ships using the strait, which carried about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies until the war began at the end of February. On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire with Iran, hours before it was due to expire. Neither side showed up for peace talks in Pakistan. The ceasefire announcement appeared to be unilateral. It was not immediately clear whether Iran, or U.S. ally Israel, would agree to extend the truce, which began two weeks ago. Iran's parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said on Wednesday that a complete ceasefire only made sense if it was not violated by the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Qalibaf said in a post on X that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was impossible with such a "flagrant breach of the ceasefire". At least four people were killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon on Wednesday, Lebanon's state news agency reported, and Hezbollah said it launched an attack drone at Israeli forces in the south, straining a ceasefire between the Iran-backed group and Israel. Russia will divert oil supplies from Kazakhstan previously intended for Germany via the Druzhba pipeline to other routes starting from May 1, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday. Novak said the logistical change was due to "technical possibilities" and had been agreed with Kazakhstan. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that he extended sanctions relief on Russian seaborne oil for 30 days because of requests from countries that are the most vulnerable to oil shortages from the closed Strait of Hormuz. The European Union is considering requiring countries to hold stockpiles of jet fuel, and potentially redistribute it based on regional needs and shortages, Europe's energy policy chief told Reuters on Wednesday, as concerns mount over possible shortages.
Oil rises above $102 on Strait of Hormuz tensions despite ceasefire extension - Oil prices climbed above $102 per barrel on Thursday as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz resurfaced, outweighing the impact of an extended ceasefire between the United States and Iran, according to Anadolu Agency. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $102.7 at 09.12 local time (06.38) per barrel in international futures markets, up 0.7% from the previous close while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded at $93.9 per barrel. Prices had risen as high as $102.31 on Wednesday before settling at $101.91. Oil prices had initially eased after US President Donald Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran. However, reports that Iran intervened in two foreign vessels over alleged security violations in the Strait of Hormuz pushed prices back toward the $100 level. Expectations that the ceasefire will hold limited gains, while ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflicting statements in the Middle East increased volatility. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz - a key artery for global energy trade - had been largely disrupted amid escalating conflict involving U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory actions. Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration said commercial crude inventories rose by about 1.9 million barrels last week to 465.7 million barrels, against expectations of a draw.
Oil Price Spike April 2026 | Brent Hits $105 Amid Iran Blockade -- International oil prices surged more than 4% on Thursday following a declaration from Tehran that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as long as the United States maintains its naval blockade, despite the recent extension of a bilateral ceasefire. In early trading at approximately 0025 GMT, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the primary U.S. benchmark, climbed 4.06% to reach $96.73 per barrel. Simultaneously, Brent North Sea crude, the global standard, rose 3.62% to $105.63. Although both benchmarks experienced a slight retreat in the ensuing minutes, the market reaction underscored the volatility surrounding the regional conflict. Energy costs have escalated sharply since Feb. 28, the date U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes against Iran. Prices have continued to climb as investors weigh the persistent uncertainty regarding a potential resumption of full-scale hostilities. The market surge follows a Tuesday announcement from U.S. President Donald Trump, who stated he would indefinitely maintain the current truce. The extension was intended to provide additional time for peace negotiations facilitated by Pakistan. While Iranian officials expressed appreciation for the diplomatic mediation efforts led by Islamabad, the government in Tehran has offered no further formal commentary regarding Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire.
Oil Steady Near 2-Week Highs on US-Iran Talks Uncertainty -- Oil and product futures were little changed in a volatile morning session Thursday as market participants sought clarity over future U.S.-Iran truce talks that could ease the largest oil supply disruption in history as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz approached the eight-week mark. By 08:45 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery was up $0.72 at $93.68 barrel (bbl), while ICE Brent for June climbed $0.79 to $102.71 bbl. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery retreated $0.0518 to $3.8861 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures rose $0.0171 to $3.3750 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index inched up 0.098 points to 98.51 against a basket of foreign currencies. Earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump extended indefinitely the ceasefire on Iran just hours before it was set to expire. Delegations from both countries have yet to meet for a second round of direct negotiations as the U.S. embargo on Iranian maritime trade continues. The lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports is one of Tehran's preconditions for any further negotiations. While Trump says talks may take place in Islamabad as soon as Friday, Iran has yet to state its willingness to meet. Oil flows out of the Persian Gulf, meanwhile, remained at a near standstill as Iran reinstated its own blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, which during normal times provided passage to some 20 million barrels of petroleum liquids that make up a fifth of global supply. Prior to the U.S. blockade on Iranian maritime trade, Iranian oil was with few exceptions the one undisrupted supply source from the Gulf. Iran also briefly allowed the Strait of Hormuz to be used by all vessels after Israel, the U.S. partner in the attacks on Iran, agreed to cease for ten days incursions into Lebanon in its war against Iran-aligned Hezbollah. That ceasefire also stands on shaky ground now. The Middle East disruption to 20% of global energy supplies has led to soaring demand for U.S. crude oil and refined products. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported that petroleum exports last week soared to a record-high 12.88 million barrels per day (bpd), propelled by an unprecedented 8.09 million bpd in product exports. Over the past four weeks, total petroleum exports have averaged 12.19 million bpd, 14% higher than in the same period last year. International demand for U.S. diesel, one of the fuels most affected by the current supply crisis, were over the last four weeks up more than 31% year-on-year. EIA data also showed that commercial inventories of gasoline and distillate fuel oil shrank by a combined 8 million bbl in the week ended April 17.
Oil Rises on Stalled Iran Talks and Ongoing Shipping Disruptions - The crude market traded higher on a lack of progress in Iran peace talks and as shipping on the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday said the U.S. had total control over the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. maintaining its naval blockade of the waterway, while Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday as it remains defiant. The oil market quickly spiked higher in overnight trading to $97.22 before it just as quickly gave up some of its sharp gains. It traded to a low of $92.30 in early morning trading and settled in a sideways trading range for much of the session amid the stalled peace talks. The market later extended its gains to over $5.40 as it rallied to a high of $98.39 amid the news that air defense systems were heard engaging in parts of Tehran and reports that air defense batteries had been activated in the city. There was also reports of a power struggle in between Iran hardliners and moderates amid the resignation of Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf. It later gave up some of its gains ahead of the close. The June WTI contract settled up $2.89 at $95.85 and the June Brent contract settled up $3.16 at $105.07. The product markets also settled higher, with the heating oil market settling up 5.03 cents at $3.9882 and the RB market settling up 10.42 cents at $3.4621.Bloomberg reported that U.S. forces boarded a supertanker carrying Iranian oil in the Indian Ocean as the navy steps up its blockade of the Iran’s shipping. The Pentagon said the overnight maneuver involved the sanctioned vessel Majestic X. The ship is also known as the Phonix, a Very Large Crude Carrier able to transport 2 million barrels of oil, and industry databases show it sailing under a false flag. In addition to turning back freighters that are attempting to leave the Persian Gulf, the U.S. is blocking and boarding carriers thousands of miles from Iranian waters. At the same time, though, Iran continues to block almost all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting oil supply to the global market and jeopardizing global economic growth. Tehran continues to keep Hormuz effectively closed, preventing the passage of hundreds of millions of barrels of oil and fuel as well as other commercial traffic. As of Thursday morning, only one Iran-linked bulk carrier was observed making the transit out of the Persian Gulf, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. S&P Global Energy has reduced its global oil demand forecast for 2026 by 700,000 bpd as the U.S.-Iran war disrupts energy supplies from the Middle East and hits demand in the second quarter. S&P Global Energy consultant, Ethan Ng, said global oil demand growth is expected to fall to 400,000 bpd versus pre-war forecast of 1.1 million bpd.According to the latest energy survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, U.S. shale executives are frustrated with the “chaos” in oil markets that has come from the Middle East conflict. U.S. oil executives expect domestic production to increase as the ongoing war in Iran upends global supplies and pushes crude and fuel prices higher. A total of 43% of survey respondents expect U.S. crude production to increase by up to 250,000 bpd this year as a result of the Iran war. About two-thirds of respondents think at least 90% of Gulf production that has been shut in will return to market eventually. When asked when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels, 20% said by next month, 39% said August, while the remaining respondents said either by November or later.Bloomberg News reported that global trading houses sold about 4 million barrels of crude from the U.S. SPR to European refiners.
Crude oil futures jump on reports of air attacks, Iran power struggle (Reuters) - Crude oil futures spiked $5 a barrel on Thursday after reports that air defenses were engaging targets over Tehran and of a power struggle between Iran's hardliners and moderates. After spiking, the benchmarks pared gains. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. Brent crude futures settled at $105.07 a barrel, gaining $3.16 or 3.1%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $95.85 a barrel, up $2.89, or 3.11%. Israeli radio reported the resignation of Iran's top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, from the team speaking to the U.S. through Pakistani intermediaries about ending the war. Qalibaf's resignation was seen as a victory for hardline elements within the Iranian government. Iranian news services said air defenses in Tehran were engaging targets over the city. That followed reports of drone attacks on Iranian Kurdish opponents of the Tehran government at a base in Iraq. Iran flaunted its tightened grip over the Strait of Hormuz with video of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship, after the collapse of peace talks that Washington had hoped would open the important shipping corridor. U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post that he had ordered the U.S. Navy "to shoot and kill any boat" mining the strait. John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital, said the market was being buffeted by alternating news reports of Trump extending the ceasefire this week and threatening to sink Iranian mine-laying ships. "Some people call it headline bingo, I call it headline roulette," Kilduff said. "I fear we're going to wake up one day and realize we're in a much worse (supply) position and prices are going to reset to a much higher level." While Trump extended a ceasefire between the countries after a request by Pakistani mediators, Iran and the U.S. are still restricting transit of ships through the strait, which carried about 20% of daily global oil supplies until the start of the war on February 28. Trump, without providing evidence, said on Thursday the U.S. had "total control" over the strait, and that it was "sealed up tight" until Iran made a deal. Iran seized two ships in the waterway on Wednesday. Trump has maintained a U.S. Navy blockade of Iran's trade by sea. However, about 10.7 million barrels of Iranian crude exports crossed through the strait and left the area blockaded by the U.S. Navy between April 13 and 21, data analytics company Vortexa said. The U.S. military has intercepted at least three Iranian-flagged tankers in Asian waters and is redirecting them away from positions near India, Malaysia and Sri Lanka, shipping and security sources said on Wednesday. Trump has not set an end date for the extended ceasefire, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters. Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, said prices were constrained by confidence in the crude market. "The market continues to believe we're going to find a way through this," Flynn said. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on Thursday said a survey of 120 oil and natural gas company executives this month found 39% expect traffic through the strait to return to normal by August and 26% expect normal traffic through the waterway by November. Twenty percent of the executives surveyed between April 15 and 20 believe traffic will be normal by May, according to the Dallas Fed.
Oil Prices Spike Above $105 as Strait of Hormuz Tensions Fuel Global Supply Fears — World oil prices climbed sharply on Friday, with Brent crude topping $105 per barrel and WTI hovering near $97 as stalled U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and persistent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz kept markets on edge amid one of the most significant supply shocks in recent years. As of late morning trading on April 24, 2026, Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, rose more than 1% to trade around $105.50-$106.14 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude gained similarly, settling near $96.50-$97.40. Both contracts have surged more than 50% year-over-year, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk premiums that have dominated trading for weeks. The primary catalyst remains the effective closure or severe restriction of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply normally flows. Ongoing military tensions, including threats to tanker movements and reported seizures, have dramatically reduced shipments. Analysts warn that even partial normalization could take weeks or months, keeping upward pressure on prices. Standard Chartered and other banks now describe $95 per barrel as a potential new equilibrium level in the near term, with some forecasts calling for sustained highs even if flows resume partially. The price action has rippled through energy markets, lifting gasoline futures to multi-year highs and contributing to broader inflation concerns. U.S. Energy Information Administration data and industry reports show global oil supply dropped sharply in March, with OPEC+ output falling dramatically due to infrastructure attacks and export constraints. Non-OPEC production also faced headwinds, amplifying the shortfall at a time when demand remains relatively resilient despite economic uncertainties. The International Energy Agency revised its 2026 demand outlook downward in its April report, now projecting a slight contraction of 80,000 barrels per day on average. However, near-term tightness from the Hormuz disruptions overrides longer-term demand softness, supporting current elevated levels. Traders monitored statements from U.S. officials indicating no immediate rush to finalize any Iran deal. President Trump's comments that an agreement would come only "when it's appropriate" added to uncertainty, preventing a meaningful pullback in risk premiums. Israel's continued threats of further action in the region compounded the volatility. On Wall Street, the energy sector outperformed as broader indices showed mixed results. Airline and consumer stocks faced pressure from higher fuel costs, while oil service companies and producers gained. The surge has also influenced currency markets, with the U.S. dollar strengthening against some emerging market currencies. Refinery margins have expanded in key regions as product prices, particularly gasoline and diesel, climbed in tandem with crude. U.S. gasoline futures hit levels not seen in years, raising concerns about summer driving season costs for American consumers. Longer-term forecasts vary widely. J.P. Morgan maintains a more bearish outlook for late 2026, projecting Brent averages near $60 if surpluses return after the current crisis eases. Others, including some IEA scenarios, see prices settling in the $75-$90 range by 2027 once supply chains normalize. OPEC+ faces difficult decisions on production. The group has already seen significant output cuts forced by events rather than voluntary restraint. Any coordinated response could further influence prices, though internal dynamics and compliance issues complicate coordination. U.S. shale producers have ramped up activity in response to higher prices, but regulatory and infrastructure constraints limit rapid response. Canadian and Brazilian output provides some offset, yet Middle East disruptions dominate the narrative. Retail fuel prices in the United States have risen steadily, with national averages for regular gasoline approaching or exceeding $4 per gallon in many regions. Analysts warn that sustained high crude could add several cents weekly at the pump, potentially influencing consumer spending and Federal Reserve policy considerations. Emerging markets, particularly those heavily dependent on imports like India and parts of Europe, face greater strain. Higher energy costs could exacerbate inflation and slow growth in vulnerable economies. China, the world's largest importer, has shown mixed demand signals amid its own economic challenges. Storage levels and tanker tracking data indicate inventory draws in key hubs, though official weekly U.S. EIA reports have shown occasional builds from strategic movements. Floating storage has increased as traders seek to capitalize on contango in futures curves. Environmental groups and renewable advocates point to the crisis as underscoring the risks of oil dependence, calling for accelerated transition policies. Conversely, industry voices argue for increased domestic production and infrastructure investment to enhance energy security. Technical analysts note Brent has broken key resistance levels, with momentum indicators suggesting potential for further upside if Hormuz tensions persist. Support sits around $100, with stronger floors near $90 if de-escalation news emerges. Options markets show elevated implied volatility, reflecting trader caution. As markets digest the latest developments, attention turns to upcoming diplomatic efforts and weekly inventory data. Any credible progress toward reopening the strait could trigger a sharp reversal, while prolonged closure risks pushing prices toward $110-$120 territory seen earlier in the flare-up. The current oil price environment serves as a stark reminder of geopolitics' power over commodity markets. For consumers, businesses and policymakers worldwide, the coming weeks will test resilience as elevated energy costs filter through economies already navigating inflation, growth concerns and shifting alliances. Whether this spike proves temporary or marks a new pricing regime depends heavily on resolution in the Persian Gulf. For now, the world's most vital commodity trades at a significant premium, with ripple effects likely to influence everything from household budgets to global inflation trajectories in the months ahead.
Oil Eyes Large Weekly Rise as Iran Peace Prospects Dim -- Oil and product futures edged lower Friday morning on reports of imminent U.S.-Iran peace talks after a four-day uptrend that left energy prices on track for large weekly rises amid dimming prospects for a quick end to the Middle East conflict that has caused the largest supply disruption in history. By 8:35 a.m. EDT, NYMEX WTI crude for June delivery was down $0.46 to $95.39 bbl and ICE Brent for June rose $0.01 to $105.08 bbl. For the week, WTI showed a 13% rise while Brent was up almost 17%. Downstream, NYMEX ULSD futures for May delivery slipped by $0.0088 to $3.9794 gallon, and front-month NYMEX RBOB futures dipped by $0.0399 to $3.4222 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index retreated by 0.172 points to 98.43 against a basket of foreign currencies. Oil futures clawed back most of the last two weeks' declines that came on the back of U.S.-Iranian peace talks and a short-lived reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian delegation was reportedly headed to Islamabad to resume negotiations with their U.S. counterparts, although recent progress in diplomacy between the two sides had been thin. While U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday, April 21, extended the ongoing ceasefire with Iran, delegations from both countries failed to meet for a second round of direct talks after the U.S. instituted a naval blockade on Iranian maritime trade. Energy exports are a key revenue source for Tehran, which cited the lifting of the U.S. embargo as a precondition for further negotiations. The White House also announced Friday that the Jones Act that allows allow international tankers to transport energy and agricultural products between U.S. ports will remain in place for another three months, extending its original two-month deadline. President Trump first announced the 60-day waiver in mid-March to help stabilize energy prices by making domestic fuel shipments via tanker economically more feasible following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the breakout of the Iran war at end of February. Prior to war-generated blockades, the strait used to be the main waterway for Middle East oil shipments, carrying around 20 million bpd of petroleum liquids that accounted for a fifth of global supply. The Middle East conflict has seen abrupt pivots of both escalation and calm in its near two months, with Trump announcing Thursday, April 23, that he has ordered the U.S. Navy to "shoot and kill" any vessel seen attempting to lay new mines in the waterway. The president claimed that the United States had complete control over Iran's maritime trade, with U.S. armed forces reporting that 34 vessels had been stopped so far from gaining access to Iranian ports. Late on Thursday, Trump also said he was putting a three-week window to the ceasefire on Iran, after initially leaving it open indefinitely. That caused oil prices to jump after the close of regular trading hours. He reiterated his threats to attack Iranian energy infrastructure should flows through the Strait of Hormuz not resume, adding "Iran has a matter of days before that takes place." Iran last weekend briefly allowed the Strait of Hormuz to be used by all vessels after Israel, the U.S. partner in the attacks on Iran, agreed to cease incursions into Lebanon in its war against Iran-aligned Hezbollah for ten days, before blockading traffic once again after the U.S. Navy ceased an Iranian-flagged cargo ship.
Oil prices end volatile session mixed but up sharply for the week on supply worries (Reuters) - Oil prices whipsawed in volatile trade on Friday, but were higher on the week, as traders weighed supply disruptions against the potential restart of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran that could help limit those disruptions. Brent crude futures settled at $105.33 a barrel, rising 26 cents, or about 0.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled at $94.40 a barrel, falling $1.45, or 1.5%. For the week, Brent gained about 16% and WTI rose nearly 13%. Crude futures gave back early gains after Reuters reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi was expected to arrive in Islamabad late on Friday to discuss proposals for resuming peace talks with the U.S. after talks collapsed earlier this week. Prices fell further after CNN reported that U.S. President Donald Trump was sending special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Pakistan for talks with Iran's foreign minister. Later, Trump told Reuters that Iran plans to make an offer aimed at satisfying U.S. demands. "They're making an offer and we'll have to see," Trump said. Early in the session, prices rose 2% on fears of renewed military escalation in the region, the day after Iran released footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, and as progress stalled on re-opening the vital waterway. "Traders are liquidating length ahead of an unusually unpredictable weekend and will readjust their positions Sunday night based on Iranian developments," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. Navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried about a fifth of global oil output, remains effectively blocked. Iran's capture of two cargo ships highlighted Washington's difficulties in trying to control the passage. Only five ships, including an Iranian oil products tanker, have moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours, shipping data showed. On Thursday, U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran may have loaded up its weaponry "a little bit" during a two-week ceasefire, but added that the U.S. military could eliminate it in a single day. On Wednesday, he said he would indefinitely extend the ceasefire to allow for further peace talks. "As tensions have heightened this week since no meeting between the U.S. and Iran developed, an open-ended ceasefire will likely coincide with a continued conflict," said oil consultant Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates. "This favors even higher prices especially in Brent and diesel, the more sensitive markets to a continuation of this war." Haitong Futures said in a report that if peace talks fail to make progress by the end of April and fighting resumes, oil prices could climb to new highs for the year.
IEA’s Birol Says Iran War Will Permanently Cut Into Future Oil Demand -- International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol says the Iran war has permanently changed the fossil fuel industry and will accelerate a shift toward renewables, nuclear power and electrification at the expense of oil demand. That is a bold claim in the middle of an oil crisis that has Brent trading above $105 a barrel and physical supply still constrained.Birol told The Guardian that the damage to confidence in fossil fuel security is permanent, and that countries exposed to the Strait of Hormuz disruption will rethink how much geopolitical risk they are willing to embed in their energy systems.“Their perception of risk and reliability will change. Governments will review their energy strategies. There will be a significant boost to renewables and nuclear power and a further shift towards a more electrified future,” Birol told the Guardian, adding that this shift will “cut into the main markets for oil,” resulting in “permanent consequences for the global energy markets…”Birol also cautioned the UK over its North Sea drilling campaign plans, which, he said, would not provide any immediate benefit. In fact, Birol points out, it would not offer any significant amount of oil and gas for many years and would “not make any significant difference to this crisis,” except, of course, for tiebacks. The message to the UK, is that any oil and gas expansion “might not make business sense.” Meanwhile, JPMorgan has argued prices may need to rise further to force additional demand destruction. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil production is down 57% from pre-war levels. Those are shortage signals, not evidence of a fossil fuel system in retreat.The current crisis is “bigger than all the biggest crises combined,” Birol said, chastising the world for being so “blind-sided” as to allow the global economy to be “hostage to a 50km strait.”
Goldman Sachs Sees Rapid Oil Output Recovery if Iran War Ends -- Crude oil production recovery to pre-war levels could take just a few months, Goldman Sachs analysts said, adding a note of caution that recovery could also take longer than that. The bank estimates lost production in the Middle East at 14.5 million barrels daily as of this month. However, most of that is the result not of physical damage to fields but of precautionary well shut-in and “stock management”, the analysts noted, as quoted by Reuters. However, it bears noting that the amount of lost production represents over half of the Middle East’s total pre-war production rate, or 57%, to be more precise. If Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz and the hostilities end, these 14.5 million barrels daily could return relatively quickly, Goldman said. The bank’s analysts cited spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as helping the faster resumption of pre-war production. The chances of a final end to the war, however, are at the moment rather remote, with negotiations at a stalemate and the Strait closed, even though the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. was extended earlier this week. If the war drags on, oil production recovery would take considerably longer, not least because the longer oil wells remain shut in, the longer it takes to restart production. Long shut-ins lead to a decline in flow rates, and production recovery requires a more complex and time-consuming process. There is also the issue of storage capacity, which has dropped by about half, or 130 million barrels, Reuters noted in its report. This would affect the speed of moving oil from the field to export terminals, one exports restart—whenever this might happen. The investment bank cited other forecasters as predicting that some 70% of the oil production that was lost as a result of the war could resume within three months of the end of hostilities. Another 88% see a less optimistic period of six months for the return of the bulk of pre-war barrels.
The Strait of Hormuz May Reopen, But the System Has Already Broken -- The market will panic when the Strait of Hormuz closes. When it reopens, policymakers will all feel relieved. At present, we are all witnessing this in real time, but reality is definitely the opposite. The latest data coming out in April 2026 should put an end to that illusion. Even after repeated announcements by Iran and the USA that Hormuz was “open,” real-time, actual maritime traffic only shows evidence of a near collapse. Markets are still struggling to get to grips with the fact that, during the opening of Hormuz, vessel traffic levels are still extremely low, sometimes as low as three vessels per day, compared to well over 120–140 in normal conditions. The lesson to be taken into account is no longer theoretical. The reopening of a chokepoint, such as Hormuz or Bab El Mandab, does not restore a system. It merely exposes how deeply it has already been broken.Markets and policymakers should look at the precedent already set in the Bab El-Mandeb and the Suez Canal. Despite intermittent stabilization efforts, traffic through the Red Sea corridor remains structurally depressed, even after years of reopening, with Suez throughput still far below pre-crisis levels. It has become clear that incentives such as transit fee discounts are widely failing to bring vessels back. The Houthis did not need to close the corridor permanently; they needed to make it all unreliable. That alone was enough to rewire global shipping behavior.Hormuz is now following the same trajectory, but this time at a far greater scale.The hard data is unequivocal. Maritime traffic through Hormuz has at times fallen by 90% or more, with entire fleets idling outside the Strait rather than risk transit. At the same time, most attention is focused on hydrocarbon exports, as oil exports from core Gulf producers have dropped by over 60%, while millions of barrels have been pushed into floating storage. Traffic has effectively fallen to zero, especially during peak disruption periods. Hundreds of vessels are still waiting in the Gulf of Oman and beyond. No reversal of this dynamic has been witnessed even during brief reopenings. Tankers turn back. Shipping lines refuse bookings. Insurance markets remain restrictive.The core issue is trust, not just a closure. Recognizing this helps policymakers and industry leaders feel the gravity and urgency of restoring confidence.There needs to be an understanding that shipping is not governed by physical access alone, but by risk perception. Once that perception shifts, as is now the case in Hormuz, the system behaves differently. The withdrawal of war-risk insurance in early March effectively shut down commercial navigation, regardless of whether the Strait was technically open. Even now, when some parties have stated that the strait has been partially reopened at certain times, major operators still refuse to transit. In some cases, none of the world’s top shipping companies are willing to take cargo through the Strait.That behavioral shift is the real story. And this confirms and substantiates what we have already seen in the Red Sea.The consequences are structural, as evidenced by global trade rerouting on a scale. The Cape of Good Hope has become the default alternative for Asia–Europe flows, adding 10–14 days and thousands of nautical miles to voyages. All parties should realize that this is no longer a temporary detour but is already embedded in network design. Shipping lines are recalibrating schedules, redeploying fleets, and locking in new routing strategies that assume chokepoint instability as a baseline.The implications for energy markets are and will increasingly become profound. The Strait of Hormuz normally carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Its disruption has already triggered what the International Energy Agency describes as the largest supply shock in modern oil market history. Hydrocarbon prices have surged, while total exports have collapsed. Supply chains have seized up. The longer-term impact will not only be scarcity, but fragmentation.
Houthis Threaten to Block Red Sea Oil Exports as Iran War Escalates - As tensions in the Middle East escalated again over the weekend, the Iran-aligned Houthis threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key oil shipping lane still open for crude shipments from the Middle East via ports on the Red Sea.“If Sana’a decides to close the Bab al-Mandab, then all of mankind and jinn will be utterly powerless to open it,” Houthi Deputy Foreign Minister Hussein al-Ezzi posted on X, as quoted by media.“And therefore, it is best for Trump – and the complicit world – to immediately end all practices and policies that obstruct peace, and to show the respect required for the rights of our people and nation,” the senior Houthi official said.Tensions in the Middle East subsided only for a few hours on Friday when Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz open, only to announce on Saturday that it is closed again, due to the continued U.S. naval blockade outside the Strait of Hormuz targeting to choke off Iranian oil exports.After sinking 10% on Friday, oil prices rebounded early on Monday as traffic through the world’s most vital chokepoint remains severely restricted and the U.S. Navy intercepted an Iranian vessel it accused of attempting to break its blockade.The seizure reignited fears of a major escalation in the conflict and a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.All those market participants who had bet on Friday on a quick resolution to the crisis have now started to recalibrate their expectations.“Developments over the weekend suggest the thaw has been short-lived, with Brent opening stronger this morning. Iran reimposed its restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after the US kept its blockade in place,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Mathey said in a Monday note.“After the US seized an Iranian-flagged vessel, there will be doubts over planned peace talks,” they added. The Houthi threat to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would cut off the oil exports from Saudi Arabia, which had moved all the shipments it could to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea amid the closed Strait of Hormuz.
How Red Sea closure would cripple global economy and end Western sea hegemony - The closure – or even any serious and persistent danger of closure – of the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the event of the US escalation will have devastating and far-reaching consequences for the global geopolitical and economic affairs. It could disable supply chains across the world in a short span of time, while permanently and irreversibly shifting the economic, logistical, and maritime power equations. This small but crucial waterway – the direct entry point to the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and finally the Mediterranean Sea – has, under normal circumstances, been the epicenter of global commerce. Through it, vast volumes of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, containerized freight, industrial raw materials, and consumer goods flow between Asia and Europe and back. Any interruption of this route will force commercial ships to round the entire African continent via the Cape of Good Hope. This much longer, more costly, and dangerous alternative adds at least 10-14 days to voyage time, consumes up to 42 percent more fuel per container ship, and effectively reduces the capacity of the global shipping fleet by about 9 percent. According to the latest reporting by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the first half of 2025, an estimated 4.2 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait each day. That figure represents roughly 5 to 6 percent of the total seaborne oil trade worldwide. Although this marks a significant decline from the 2023 peak of 9.3 million barrels per day, the strait remains one of the world's biggest energy bottlenecks. Projections for this year paint a concerning picture. Global seaborne trade growth in 2025 was projected at only 0.5 percent, a slowdown attributed to persistent disruptions in the Red Sea. These figures make it clear that a Red Sea shutdown is not a passing logistical crisis of a day or two. Rather, it represents a structural shock to the entire global economy, one that will bring chronic inflation, supply chain stagnation, rising production costs, and ultimately a fundamental redefinition of trade routes and geopolitical dynamics. Under the simultaneous impact of military and economic pressures, this trajectory points toward a more multipolar and resilient global order. Geographically and operationally, the most critical choke point is the Bab al-Mandab Strait, just 18 nautical miles (approximately 33 kilometers) wide. Before the recent crises, thousands of large commercial ships passed through it during a normal day, at a rate of up to 1,200 vessels per month, according to figures from Lloyd's List and IMF PortWatch. Sealing this strait, along with the Suez Canal, whose traffic according to the Suez Canal Authority had decreased by 2025 to about 12,758 vessels with a net tonnage of 522 million tons, would effectively force shipping onto a detour of an extra 5,500 to 11,000 kilometers. This not only dramatically drives up fuel prices but also creates unprecedented congestion and delays in Mediterranean ports such as Barcelona, Tangier Med, and even Rotterdam. Reports from the World Bank and UNCTAD indicate that even small disruptions between 2023 and 2025 caused reductions in Red Sea traffic of up to 70 percent and in Suez Canal traffic of up to 60 percent. The situation worsened further in 2025, with an additional 50 percent drop in container transportation through the Suez Canal – down to just 5.46 million TEU. When this route is entirely closed under such conditions, the world economy – 85 percent of whose trade moves by sea – would find itself effectively at a deadlock. Reliance on alternative routes like the Cape of Good Hope would become an irreparable and expensive habit, permanently fixing logistics expenses at a higher level and destroying the so-called "just-in-time" supply chains that form the very core of global industrial and commercial production.
Iran Revolutionary Guard fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships trying to pass (AP) — The standoff over the Strait of Hormuz escalated again Saturday as Iran reversed its reopening of the crucial waterway and fired on ships attempting to pass, in retaliation after the United States pressed ahead with its blockade of Iranian ports.The strait is closed until the U.S. blockade is lifted, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard navy said Saturday night, warning that “no vessel should make any movement from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered as cooperation with the enemy” and be targeted.New attacks on the strait, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, threatened to deepen the global energy crisis and push the countries into renewed conflict as the war entered its eighth weekA fragile ceasefire is due to run out by Wednesday. Iran said it had received new proposals from the United States, and Pakistani mediators were working to arrange another round of direct negotiations.Iran’s joint military command earlier said “control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state ... under strict management and control of the armed forces.”Revolutionary Guard gunboats opened fire on a tanker and an unknown projectile hit a container vessel, damaging some containers, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said. India’s foreign ministry said it summoned Iran’s ambassador over the “serious incident” of firing on two India-flagged merchant ships, especially after Iran earlier let several India-bound ships through.For Iran, the strait’s closure — imposed after the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Feb. 28 during talks over Tehran’s nuclear program — is perhaps its most powerful weapon, threatening the world economy and inflicting political pain on President Donald Trump. For the United States, the blockade keeps up pressure and could strangle Iran’s already weakened economy.Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, issued defiant remarks on Saturday, saying the navy stands “ready to inflict bitter defeats on its enemies.” He has not been seen in public since being elevated to the post following his father’s death in Israel’s opening barrage.On Friday, Iran announced the strait’s reopening to commercial vessels after a 10-day truce was announced between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. The reopening caused oil prices to fall. Trump, however, said the U.S. blockade of Iran’s ports “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the United States. Trump had imposed the blockade after a round of historic face-to-face talks in Pakistan between the countries ended without an agreement.U.S. forces have sent 23 ships back to Iran since the blockade began on Monday, U.S. Central Command said Saturday. Trump’s comments triggered an outcry.“Americans are risking the international community, risking the global economy through these, I can say, miscalculations,” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh told The Associated Press, adding that the U.S. is “risking the whole ceasefire package.”
Distress call captures Indian tanker crew under Iranian fire in Strait of Hormuz -A distress call captured Saturday details a crewmember on an Indian ship pleading with Iranian forces as his vessel comes under fire in the Strait of Hormuz.“Sepah Navy,” the crewmember said, referring to a special unit of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy. “Motor Tanker Sanmar Herald. Sanmar Herald. Sepah Navy. You gave me clearance. You gave me clearance to go.”The 33-second audio clip of the call was shared by TankerTrackers.com on the social platform X. “Sepah Navy. Sepah Navy. This is motor tanker Sanmar Herald. You gave me clearance to go,” the crewmember continued. “My name [is] second on your list. You gave me clearance to go. You are firing now. Let me turn back.” The Indian ship was one of two vessels bearing that country’s flag that came under fire by the IRGC Navy on Saturday. The U.K. Marine Trade Operations (UKMTO) office reported that two IRGC gun boats fired on a tanker roughly 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman, while an unknown projectile hit a container ship roughly 25 nautical miles from Oman. After the first incident, the UKMTO reported that the tanker and crew were safe, while the office said the projectile that hit the latter ship caused damage to “some” of the containers the ship was carrying but did not result in fires or environmental impact.The Indian Ministry of External Affairs wrote in a Saturday statement that it summoned Iranian Ambassador to India Mohammad Fathali for a meeting with Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.During that meeting, Misri “conveyed India’s deep concern” about the incidents and “noted the importance that India attached to the safety of merchant shipping and mariners and recalled that Iran had earlier facilitated the safe passage of several ships” headed for India. “Reiterating his concern at this serious incident of firing on merchant ships, [Misri] urged the Ambassador to convey India’s views to the authorities in Iran and resume at the earliest the process of facilitating India-bound ships across the Strait,” the statement continued. “The Ambassador of Iran undertook to convey these views to the Iranian authorities.”Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on Feb. 28, the IRGC has restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — which is bordered by Iran and Oman, but considered an international waterway ships can pass through, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. That has resulted in oil prices skyrocketing, with drivers in the U.S. seeing a rise in prices at the pump. In response to the IRGC’s actions, the U.S. Navy began blockading the chokepoint last Monday. American forces also intercepted an Iranian-flagged ship seeking to bypass that blockade on Sunday.
Gunboat diplomacy ramps up in Hormuz Strait, endangering shaky ceasefire - While the U.S., Iran and Israel have largely halted the barrage of missile, bomb and drone strikes that defined the first month of the war, a tit-for-tat battle is escalating at sea. The U.S. military and Iran both seized tankers in international waters this week, and Tehran struck vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump threatened further escalation on Thursday, ordering the Navy to fire on any Iranian ships that are placing mines in the strait, a vital shipping lane that carries about one-fifth of all global crude oil in peacetime. The gunboat diplomacy threatens to undermine a ceasefire that has largely held on land, potentially escalating a conflict that has already caused a global energy crisis, experts say. “This is sort of this test of wills,” said Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The U.S. isn’t carrying out airstrikes in Iran like it was. It is moving to the seas as a means of being able to exert some level of pressure. Iran has done so the same way.” He added: “We have what is really a ceasefire mostly in name.” The Strait of Hormuz is currently under a so-called double-blockade, with Iran threatening ships from unfriendly nations and Washington turning back most Iran-linked vessels. Trump on Tuesday extended the ceasefire indefinitely to give Tehran time to come to the negotiating table with a peace proposal but said the U.S. would maintain the status quo at sea. The conflict is soon to enter its ninth week, surpassing Trump’s original timeline of four to six weeks. While Washington waits, the U.S. military seized at least three tankers carrying oil from Iran, including one in the Indian Ocean overnight on Wednesday, and the officials said American forces have directed 31 vessels “to turn around or return to port” as part of the blockade. “We will continue global maritime enforcement to disrupt illicit networks and interdict vessels providing material support to Iran, wherever they operate,” according to a Pentagon post to social media, which showed American forces boarding the M/T Majestic X. The Defense Department has described the tanker as a “sanctioned, stateless vessel.” Trump also has ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill any boat” that is placing mines in the strait. “There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine ‘sweepers’ are clearing the Strait right now,” the president wrote on his Truth Social platform. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), in turn, has fired on ships to prevent them from sailing through the Strait of Hormuz, attacking three ships in the waterway and seizing two of them Wednesday. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and a senior defense adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the U.S. pressure campaign could pay off by pushing Iran to make a better deal for Washington. But the strategy also might backfire and harden Iran’s position. “Revolutionary Guards might become more kinetic. They might start shooting at the ships in the Persian Gulf, for example, those ships there, they’re all stationary, and they’re all very easy to hit,” Cancian told The Hill. “So it’s a gamble. … You could get what you want, but on the other hand, the other side could react in ways that are very unfavorable.” He said the U.S. could expand its seizure effort and “track down every Iranian anchor that is outside of the Persian Gulf — and there are dozens of them — as a way to put pressure on Iran.” Such an idea was floated by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Wednesday, when he wrote on the social platform X that he expects the U.S. blockade “will be growing and that it could become global soon.” But the strait’s closure and subsequent U.S. blockade has further strained global energy resources, with International Energy Agency head Fatih Birol on Thursday telling CNBC that the world is “facing the biggest energy security threat in history.”
Iran has new surprises ready for potential resumption of war: Report - Iran has fully prepared for the possible resumption of war as the ceasefire deadline approaches, with new surprises ready for any new round of imposed war, the Tasnim News Agency reported on Tuesday, citing informed sources. According to the report, the US naval blockade announcements and Washington’s excessive demands have prevented the formation of new negotiations as the agreed ceasefire period nears its end. “Iran is fully prepared for the possibility of a new war and has prepared new surprises for a potential new round of combat,” the report said. The sources told Tasnim that over the past two weeks, Iran has taken the possibility of renewed war seriously. “Accordingly, some military movements and new target lists have been prepared for this purpose,” the report added. Iran is ready to create “another hell” for Americans and Israelis from the very beginning of any potential new war, the sources said. The United States and Israel launched their unprovoked, illegal war of aggression against Iran on February 28, assassinating the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, and striking nuclear facilities, schools, hospitals and bridges, along other civilian sites. Iran’s armed forces responded with 100 waves of decisive retaliatory strikes under Operation True Promise 4, launching hundreds of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, as well as drones, against American military bases across West Asia and Israeli positions throughout the occupied territories. A two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, took effect following the intense 40-day war. However, tensions have remained high. The United States has declared plans for a naval blockade of Iranian ports, a move Tehran has condemned as provocative and a violation of the ceasefire.
Iran's military warns US, Israel about an even harsher lesson' - Iran's highest operational command unit has again strongly warned the US and the Israeli regime against any instance of aggression targeting the Islamic Republic, saying the country's retaliation to such transgression would "immediately" strike pre-determined targets. The Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which is responsible for coordinating operations between the country's Army and the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), delivered the remarks in a statement on Tuesday. "Our capable and powerful forces have been at full readiness for a long time and are on trigger," spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfaqari noted. "In the event of any aggression or action against the Islamic Republic, they will immediately strike pre-determined targets with full force and face the aggressor America and the child-killing Zionist regime with an even harsher lesson than before," he added. The warning, the spokesman stated, had come "in view of the repeated threats from the US president and the commanders of that country’s aggressive and terrorist military." On April 7, President Donald Trump announced a two-week lull in the unprovoked aggression that the United States had launched together with the Israeli regime against Iran 40 days before. The announcement followed at least 100 waves of determined and successful retaliation by Iran's Armed Forces against numerous strategic and sensitive American and Israeli targets across the region. Talks went ahead subsequently in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, but stopped short of yielding a deal amid the US's maximalist demands and its refusal to abandon its unreasonable positions. Further talks were expected to take place, but the Islamic Republic said it would not rejoin the process unless Washington lifted an illegal blockade it had imposed against Iranian vessels and ports. On Monday, Trump threatened Iran with "overwhelming military force," saying "lots of bombs [will] start going off" in the absence of a deal resulting from talks between the two sides. Also on Tuesday, though, the US president announced extension of the ceasefire after the Islamic Republic retained its stance.
IRIB poll: Vast majority of Iranians reject curbs on missiles, uranium, and Strait of Hormuz control - In the wake of the 40-day war imposed by the US-Israeli coalition against Iran, a nationwide survey by the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Research Center has revealed unwavering support for the country’s armed forces, national unity, and a firm resolve to maintain the country's missile and defensive capabilities. The survey, which polled thousands of Iranians across the country during and immediately after the imposed war, found that an overwhelming majority of respondents said Iran should not accept US maximalist demands for an agreement and a permanent end to the war. An overwhelming majority of Iranians believe the country should reject any deal that would impose restrictions on its missile industry, require the removal of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, mandate a shutdown of uranium enrichment, allow unrestricted ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz, or demand an end to cooperation with the Resistance Front. The unprovoked war was launched on February 28 with the assassination of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, top military commanders, and ordinary citizens, including nearly 170 schoolchildren in southern Iran’s Minab city. The aggression, launched to decapitate Iranian leadership and cripple the nation’s defensive capabilities, instead exposed the fragility of American power projection when confronted by sophisticated Iranian military technology and the unified front of the Axis of Resistance. After 40 days of aggression, the United States accepted Iran’s comprehensive 10-point proposal as the foundation for a permanent ceasefire, which led to talks in Islamabad. While the US ultimately breached the ceasefire, leading to a stalemate in talks, Iran maintains that the dynamics have changed and it is the US that must give concessions now. Rejection of concessions on missile program, nuclear rights On potential conditions for permanently ending the imposed war, survey respondents delivered an unmistakable message of resilience and defiance. The survey asked respondents whether Iran should accept various US maximalist demands for an agreement and a permanent end to the war. The results were decisive:
- 85.7 percent said Iran should not accept restrictions on the missile industry.
- 82.6 percent said Iran should not accept the removal of 400 kilograms of enriched uranium from the country.
- 79.4 percent said Iran should not accept shutting down uranium enrichment.
- 73.7 percent said Iran should not accept unrestricted passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.
- 68.1 percent said Iran should not accept severing cooperation with the Resistance Front.
Analysts cited in the report described these findings as a revelation of "strategic maturity" in the deep layers of Iranian society following the unprovoked and illegal war of aggression. While war pressure typically drives societies toward "peace at any price," the decisive opposition to missile industry restrictions and the strong stand on nuclear rights indicate the complete failure of the "pressure for submission" doctrine. Iranian society views national power tools not as commodities for bargaining but as "symbols of honor and independence," the survey report states. The people of Iran have established a direct connection between "possessing power" and "civilizational survival," considering any retreat from the indigenous defensive missile industry as equivalent to opening the gates to wider aggressions
IRGC Announces Seizure of Two Vessels, One Linked to Israel, in Hormuz - Palestine Chronicle - Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy announced on Wednesday it had intercepted two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and transferred them to Iranian territorial waters as part of ongoing maritime security operations. In a statement cited by Tasnim news agency and Al-Jazeera, the IRGC said the ships—identified as MSC Francesca and Epaminodes—were operating without authorization and repeatedly violating maritime regulations. The statement added that the vessels tampered with navigation systems in a way that endangered maritime safety and attempted to exit the strait covertly before being intercepted. One of the vessels, MSC Francesca, was described as being linked to Israel. The IRGC said both ships have been transferred to Iranian waters for inspection of their cargo, documents, and operational records. In a related development, a third commercial vessel—identified as Euphoria—was targeted after attempting to cross the strait in violation of Iranian regulations, according to Fars news agency. The vessel is now reportedly stranded off the Iranian coast. Iranian media said the interception and targeting operations are part of what officials describe as “smart control” of the Strait of Hormuz, amid heightened tensions with the United States. The IRGC Navy stressed that any violation of Iran’s declared navigation rules in the Strait of Hormuz would be met with firm action. It said forces will “deal legally and firmly with any movements or actions that violate Iranian laws regulating navigation,” emphasizing that maritime security in the strategic waterway is a “red line.” The statement underscored that all vessel movements in the strait are being closely monitored. The developments come amid escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz following a US-imposed naval blockade and recent confrontations involving Iranian and US-linked vessels. Iran had previously reclosed the strait after briefly reopening it, in protest against continued US restrictions. The incidents also follow a fragile ceasefire announced on April 8, brokered by Pakistan, which remains under strain as both sides continue military and maritime maneuvers.
Iran Eases Strait of Hormuz Transit Rules for Russia - Iran has granted exemptions to certain friendly countries, including Russia, from transit tolls imposed on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian ambassador to Moscow said. Iran’s Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali told RIA Novosti that Tehran is currently applying special provisions for friendly nations, allowing them to benefit from exceptions to newly introduced transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. He noted, however, that it remains unclear whether the policy will continue in the future. According to the envoy, Iran’s Foreign Ministry is working to implement the exemptions as part of broader efforts to maintain cooperation with allied countries. Iran recently announced plans to impose tolls on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, citing the need to cover rising security costs. Iranian lawmakers said the fees would vary depending on the type and volume of cargo as well as associated risks. Iran began collecting such revenues for the first time this week. The move comes amid heightened tensions following a stalled diplomatic track between Iran and the United States. Despite a previously announced two-week ceasefire, negotiations failed to produce a breakthrough. Washington subsequently declared a blockade of Iranian ports, stating it would only be lifted after an agreement is reached. In response, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and suspended further engagement with the US. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire, saying it would remain in place until Tehran presents a settlement proposal and talks resume.
Iran deploys more mines in the Strait of Hormuz, sources say - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy laid more mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge of the issue. The military standoff in the world's most important oil chokepoint is escalating, with Iran laying mines and attacking commercial ships on one side and the U.S. tightening its naval blockade on the other. After being briefed on the new developments, President Trump ordered the U.S. Navy on Truth Social on Thursday to "shoot and kill" any Iranian boats laying mines with "no hesitation."New mines in the strait could deepen what the International Energy Agency has already called the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global market — bigger than the 1970s oil shocks.Roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the strait in peacetime. Traffic has collapsed to single digits on most days, down from more than 100 ships daily. This is the second time Iran has mined the strait since the war began. It remains unclear whether all the mines from the first round have been found and cleared. The U.S. military detected the Iranian mine-laying operation and has been tracking it closely, the sources said.The U.S. official said the U.S. knows how many new mines Iran has deployed but declined to provide the number. Before this apparent uptick, experts estimated that fewer than 100 mines had been deployed by Iran. The White House declined to comment on intelligence matters. At the war's start, U.S. officials estimated they had destroyed more than 90% of Iran's large mine-laying vessels and mine-storage warehouses, but believed the armed forces still had in stashes along the coast.The mines can be relatively easy to lay for Iranians piloting small fishing-boat-sized Gashti vessels, which can each carry two to four mines and drop them in the strait. Iran still has scores of those vessels, which can be equipped with rocket launchers and mounted machine guns to interdict large tankers. The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and its strike group arrived Thursday in the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. It will be the third U.S. aircraft carrier in the region — tightening the naval blockade on Iran and giving Trump more military options if he decides to resume the war, sources said. CENTCOM said Thursday it has redirected 33 vessels since the blockade began. U.S. officials say the Navy is operating underwater drones in the Strait of Hormuz for mine-clearing operations Trump's Thursday announcement also indicated that two mine countermeasure vessels, the USS Chief and the USS Pioneer, may also be operating in the Strait. The effort could also involve special mine-hunting helicopters and surveillance aircraft, although experts caution that the strait is a narrow and perilous waterway due to the threat of Iranian attacks. Trump said he ordered that operation "to continue, but at a tripled up level!"
Pentagon says it will take months to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, AP source says - The Pentagon told lawmakers this week it will likely take six months to clear the mines set in the strait, according to a person familiar with the situation who was granted anonymity to discuss the sensitive information.Officials from the Department of Defense delivered the information during a classified briefing at the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday.The session left more questions than answers as lawmakers probed for information about the cost of the war against Iran, the strategy and objectives, the person said. The lawmakers also raised questions that have still gone unanswered about the strike on a school compound during the early days of the war.
Dow CEO says clearing the Strait of Hormuz logjam will take almost a year - Outgoing Dow CEO Jim Fitterling said clearing the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could take far longer than investors expect. “Some scenario planning that we did said that even if the straits were to reopen today, just to clear the logistics logjam… is going to take 275 days, maybe more now,” he told Jim Cramer on CNBC’s “Mad Money” on Thursday. The Strait of Hormuz effectively shut down in early March at the onset of the Iran war, triggering a major bottleneck in global energy and petrochemical flows. Fitterling said the path back to normal will be slow and operationally complex. “You’ve got to get empty ships back. We’ve got to clean out the strait and the Arabian Gulf. We’ve got to get empty ships back in,” said Fitterling, who is retiring on July 1 as Dow’s chief executive after an eight-year run. “This is not going to be in a month or two. This is going to be several quarters before you’re going to see things return to normal.” The initial shock was significant for the petrochemical market, in which Dow is one of the leading players. “When the Strait of Hormuz shut down, 20% of global oil capacity was shut in, but about 50% of global ethylene and polyethylene production was impacted,” Fitterling said, referencing two key inputs used to create plastic products used in everyday life. He added that the chokepoint is critical to petrochemical supply chains, noting that about 40% of the naphtha used in Asian and European production flows through the strait, tightening supply almost immediately. Derived from crude oil, naphtha is a key ingredient to produce plastics and other chemicals. That imbalance has driven a sharp pricing surge. “We saw a 10 cent-per-pound increase in March, and we’ve got another 30 cents in April, and another 20 cents out there in May,” he said. “We haven’t seen this kind of an uplift in prices for well more than a decade.” The pricing tailwind helped support Dow’s latest results, with the company reporting solid revenue and a smaller-than-expected loss in its first-quarter report released April 23. Shares have surged roughly 65% this year.
Israel's Yellow Line Claims Valuable Off-Shore Lebanese Gas Field - - Israeli forces continue to be active south of the Yellow Line established last week in Lebanon, destroying villages and building up a command structure to support an open ended military occupation of that territory.The IDF is said to envision not only occupying the southern-most “buffer zone” inside Lebanon, but also to create what Israeli planners call a “hunting and pursuit zone” between the Yellow Line and the Litani and Awali River, whereby they would continue operating with impunity.Further complicating matters, Israel’s Yellow Line is not a straight line by any means, and gets decidedly angled when one reaches the Mediterranean Sea. There’s a method to this line, which cuts deep into Lebanon’s territorial waters. This puts the economically important Qana gas field wholly within the “buffer zone,” putting the site, estimated to be worth $20-$40 billion dollars, wholly out of Lebanon’s reach and under the operational control of the Israelis. Israel and Lebanon has a maritime dispute over multiple offshore gas fields that spanned each of their claimed maritime borders. In 2022, the two nations reached an agreement whereby Israel would have full control of the Karish field, whereas Lebanon would have control of the further north Qana field, though with the caveat that Israel was entitled to royalties on parts of the field because previously some Israeli maps angled the border line enough that those parts could be claimed by Israel.The Yellow Line now effectively makes the Qana field off-limits to Lebanon, and part of the Israeli-occupied buffer zone. While not as immediately impactful of the dozens of villages the IDF intends to levels in the zone are, the loss of Qana could do substantial economic harm to Lebanon in the long-term.
Displaced Lebanese Again Warned Not to Return to Israeli-Occupied South - While the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is holding across most of the country, the far south area of Lebanon occupied by Israel continues to see some limited fighting, and a massive amount of destruction as the systematic destruction of towns and villages by Israeli forces continues.Israel would just as soon the population of displaced civilians who lived there stay out of the way why they continue leveling their homes to create a military “buffer zone,” and has warned residents of over 50 municipalities in Lebanon to just not attempt to return home.IDF spokesman Avichay Adraee said residents shouldn’t attempt to return to 58 towns and villages that fall south of the Israeli-imposed “Yellow Line,” and also added that they shouldn’t attempt to approach the Litani River at all.The Litani River aspect is substantial, because Israeli officials had presented their intention earlier in the war to occupy the entire nation south of the river, and during the war destroyed every single bridge spanning that river. Defense Minister Israel Katz bragged that many hundreds of thousands of people were displaced from south of the river, and would not be allowed to return, though by the time the current ceasefire was reached, Israel had only captured a fraction of that territory.An estimated 1.2 million Lebanese were displaced in the course of the war, while a lot of the territory they were expelled from was as yet not occupied by the Israeli military. Whether those people can safely return either is uncertain though because it’s not clear the ceasefire will hold.Even with the ceasefire in effect, Israel is still reporting some strikes, like a claim of destroying a rocket launcher near Kfar Kela. Even though the IDF noted that the launcher was north of the “forward defense line (which is to say Yellow Line)” they justified attacking it for posing an “immediate threat” to occupation forces still within Lebanon. Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri reported that the US is pushing for the two sides to extend the 10-day ceasefire, and the US is reporting additional talks will be held on Thursday, according to the State Department.
Israeli Troops Say Mass Looting of Occupied Southern Lebanon ‘Routine’ - South of the newly-established Yellow Line, Israel has established de facto military occupation of over 50 Lebanese municipalities, and has been demolishing homes and preventing the return to displaced locals. The destruction goes deeper than that, however.A new report from Israel’s Haaretz quotes numerous Israeli soldiers within southern Lebanon saying that the looting of civilian property from homes in the area has become “wide-spread” and “routine” and that commanders are making no serious effort to try to prevent it.Soldiers cited troops taking motorcycles, televisions, even sofas, out of private homes and loading them on military vehicles and bringing them back across the border into Israel. “Everyone sees it and understands it” one was quoted as saying. Though the IDF responded to the Haaretz report by claiming that it conducts inspections at the border and takes disciplinary action when necessary, the soldiers suggested that virtually never happens. Indeed, only some of the border crossings even have checkpoints in which to inspect looted cargo in the first place. At most, some commanders tell their soldiers to “stop looting” but have taken no action to really enforce that order. Others simply let it go.“When there is no punishment, the message is obvious,” one of the soldiers added. Another said he thought if military police jailed anyone for the looting it would stop pretty quickly. So far the indication is that’s not happening.Other soldiers suggested that the reason looting is happening with such impunity is that the IDF is engaged in wiping out many of those towns and villages, and the sense is “What difference does it make if I take it? It’s going to be destroyed anyway.” Mass looting was similarly reported in Gaza, according to Haaretz, and in the course of that, only one indictment ever happened, which was ultimately settled with a plea deal.
Outcry grows over Israeli soldier smashing Jesus statue in Lebanon | Al Jazeera --A photo of an Israeli soldier smashing a statue of Jesus Christ in Lebanon has sparked outrage in the United States, adding to the anger Israel is facing, including from parts of US President Donald Trump’s base. Although the incident is only one among a broad range of atrocities that Israel is accused of committing in the region in recent years, it garnered condemnations across the world and prompted a response from Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. In the US, where support for Israel was once unchallenged – especially in right-wing circles that purport to espouse Christian values – the desecration of the Christian religious symbol added fuel to the criticism that the Israeli government is facing from some Republicans.“You would never know it by consuming American corporate media, but this kind of incident is not rare,” said right-wing commentator Tucker Carlson, a former Trump ally.“The Israeli government has permitted its soldiers to behave like barbarians for decades, all while sucking up generous funding from the United States. The only difference between now and the past is that social media has exposed Israel’s behavior for the world to see,” Carlson wrote in his newsletter on Monday.Former Republican Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene – who fell out with Trump over his hawkish foreign policy – highlighted that Israel receives billions of dollars in US military aid annually. “‘Our greatest ally’ that takes billions of our tax dollars and weapons every year,” she wrote in a comment on X in response to the photo showing an Israeli soldier taking a sledgehammer to the head of the statue of Jesus. Matt Gaetz, another former Republican congressman and Trump ally, said, “Horrific”. For his part, independent journalist Glenn Greenwald mocked how Christian Zionists may defend Israel over smashing the statue. “Christian Zionists: This Israeli soldier was absolutely justified in smashing the head of the Jesus Christ statue because Hezbollah and Hamas were hiding inside. We owe him our gratitude,” Greenwald wrote on X.The anger echoed growing scepticism of the close alliance with Israel in Trump’s “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) constituency.Trump is already facing pressure over joining Israel in starting a war against Iran, which sent oil prices soaring. Earlier on Monday, the US president addressed and denied claims that Netanyahu dragged the US into the conflict. Support for Israel in the US is at a historic low, recent public opinion polls show. While Israel still enjoys near-unanimous Republican support in Congress, that consensus is starting to fray, with dissent being expressed by the likes of Carlson, in part due to prolonged wars in the Middle East and attacks on Christians.The desecration of the statue, which took place near the town of Debl in south Lebanon, according to local reports, prompted an unusually swift response from the highest level of the Israeli government.“I condemn the act in the strongest terms. Military authorities are conducting a criminal probe of the matter and will take appropriately harsh disciplinary action against the offender,” Netanyahu said in a statement on Sunday.Israel rarely holds its soldiers accountable for well-documented abuses in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon, including sexual violence.Netanyahu, who has been evading an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over war crimes charges in Gaza since 2024, went on to argue that Israel treats Christians better than any other country in the region.“While Christians are being slaughtered in Syria and Lebanon by Muslims, the Christian population in Israel thrives unlike elsewhere in the Middle East,” the Israeli prime minister claimed. “Israel is the only country in the region that the Christian population and standard of living is growing.” Lebanon has the largest per capita Christian population in the Middle East, and its president is a Maronite Catholic. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar joined Netanyahu in denouncing the desecration of the statue, saying that it is “entirely contrary” to Israeli values.But while Israel’s supporters tried to portray smashing the statue as an isolated mistake by one soldier, the incident reflects a pattern of Israeli attacks against houses of worship, including churches. An Israeli tank demolished a statue of Saint George in the southern Lebanese village of Yaroun last year. Israel has bombed Palestinian churches several times in Gaza since the start of its genocidal war in the enclave, including an attack that killed at least 18 people in 2023. Israel destroyed more than 1,000 mosques and three churches in Gaza during the war, according to local officials.The Assembly of Catholic Ordinaries of the Holy Land denounced the attack on the statue on Monday. “This act constitutes a grave affront to the Christian faith and adds to other reported incidents of desecration of Christian symbols by [Israeli] soldiers in southern Lebanon,” it said in a statement.“It further reveals a disturbing failure in moral and human formation, wherein even the most elementary reverence for the sacred and for the dignity of others has been gravely compromised.” The incident came as Israeli soldiers pushed to completely destroy homes and civilian infrastructure in dozens of Lebanese villages in order to prevent residents from returning to them.“The outrage shouldn’t be about a destroyed statue of Jesus – abhorrent as that is,” Palestinian pastor Munther Isaac wrote in a social media post on Monday.“The real outrage is the targeting of civilians, the assault on human dignity, the devastation in Gaza and Lebanon. War is evil. We need Accountability.”The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) called on Trump and Congress to intervene and end Israeli violations after the destruction of the statue.“For years, our government has ignored and enabled persistent Israeli attacks on churches and Christians in Lebanon, Gaza, and elsewhere,” CAIR said.“Our message to American public officials is simple: If you continue sending more weapons and provide political cover for Israel’s rogue actions, you own what you see in this picture.”
Israeli Soldier Says an IDF Commander Spat on the Bodies of Three Children He Killed in Gaza - A report published by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz on the “moral injuries” that IDF soldiers are dealing with includes several accounts of atrocities committed against Palestinians in Gaza, including one story about an IDF commander spitting on the bodies of children. The soldier, who went by the alias Yuval, said the incident occurred in southern Gaza near the Salah al-Din highway when a platoon identified “suspicious figures” nearby and he began firing on them. “When we got to our destination, I realized that these weren’t terrorists. It was an old guy and three boys, maybe teenagers. Not one of them was armed. But their bodies were riddled with bullets; their organs were pouring out. I had never seen anything like that so close up,” he said. “I remember there was silence; nobody uttered a word. Then the battalion commander came over with his people, and one spat on the bodies and yelled, ‘This is what happens to anybody who messes with Israel, you sons of bitches.’ I was in shock, but I kept quiet because I’m a loser, just a gutless coward,” the soldier added. The report also included an account from an IDF sniper who killed Palestinians seeking aid. “When you shoot through a sniper’s scope, everything seems close, like in a computer game. You don’t forget the faces of the people you’ve killed. It stays with you,” the sniper said. Haaretz published a similar report last year that included an account from a sniper who said that at the time, during the mass killing of Palestinians seeking aid, his unit would set up an arbitrary line near where aid trucks. If any Palestinians crossed the line, they would be shot, including children. The new Haaretz report also included accounts of torture during interrogations, a detained Palestinian civilian being urinated on by an IDF soldier, and an IDF officer with an American name executing an unarmed Palestinian who had raised his hands.
Concerns Grow That Israel Plans New Military Base in Syria as Troops Bring Prefab Units With Them - Since the December 2024 Israeli invasion of Syria, the Israeli military has set up multiple semi-permanent military outposts within Syria’s southwest. There are growing signs that another such installation is planned, and locals are concerned. Israeli troops have been launching more and more incursions into the Quneitra Governorate, and while some of them are the usual establishment of temporary checkpoints to hassle local civilians, and at least one young man was reportedly captured, there are reasons to think this is more than the typical IDF operations in the area. Incursions in the area of Tal al-Ahmar al-Sharqi include not just the typical troops, they’re also bringing construction equipment like bulldozers, and prefab building units. Troops also established a checkpoint nearby the town of Samadaniyah al-Sharqiah, and seized a home on a nearby hilltop. UN Disengagement Observer Forces (UNDOF) have been deployed to the area at the behest of locals, who are concerned that the units and the growing operation portend Israel establishing another more or less permanent military structure within Syria.The impression is growing that Israel intends to make itself a permanent occupying power. In recent weeks, Israeli troops entered the town of Hadr and raised an Israeli flag over the town’s entrance.
UNICEF 'Outraged' After Israeli Attack Kills Two Water Truck Drivers in Gaza - -The UN’s child relief agency, UNICEF, said in a statement on Friday that it was “outraged” after an Israeli attack that morning killed two drivers who were contracted by the agency to “provide clean water to families” in the Gaza Strip, as the IDF continues its constant violations of the US-backed Gaza ceasefire deal.UNICEF said that “Israeli fire” killed the two drivers and wounded two other people at the Mansoura water filling point in northern Gaza, which serves Palestinians from Gaza City. The statement said that the attack “occurred during routine, water trucking operations, with no changes in movement or procedures.”“The Mansoura water filling point is currently the only operational truck filling point for the Mekorot water supply line serving Gaza City. UNICEF and humanitarian partners use it multiple times a day to sustain critical water trucking operations for hundreds of thousands of people, including children,” UNICEF said. The UN agency added that its “contractors have been instructed to suspend onsite activities until security conditions in the area are restored” and urged an investigation of the attack on the water supply, a clear war crime under the Geneva Convention. “Humanitarian workers, essential service providers, and civilian infrastructure, including critical water facilities, must never be targeted,” UNICEF said. “The protection of civilians and those delivering life-saving assistance is an obligation under international humanitarian law.” Israeli attacks continued throughout the weekend, with Gaza’s Health Ministry reporting at least eight Palestinians were killed by the IDF over the past three days. According to the ministry’s latest update, the Israeli military has killed at least 775 Palestinians in Gaza and wounded 2,171 since the so-called ceasefire deal was signed in early October.
Israel's Smotrich Calls for Netanyahu To Order the 'Full Conquest of Gaza,' Establishment of Jewish Settlements - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Sunday called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to order the “full conquest” of Gaza and the establishment of Jewish settlements in the Palestinian territory.Smotrich made the comments at an event marking the re-establishment of Sa-Nur, an illegal Jewish settlement in the northern Israeli-occupied West Bank that was evacuated in 2005 as part of a policy known as the “disengagement,” which also resulted in the evacuation of settlements in Gaza.“Instead of handing territory to the enemy — take territory from the enemy,” said Smotrich, who also holds a position in the defense ministry that gives him the power to expand settlements in the West Bank.“I call on the prime minister to order the IDF to prepare immediately for the full conquest of the Gaza Strip, to establish Israeli control over all the territory of the Strip, and to establish Israeli settlement in it. Without settlement, there will be no security,” Smotrich added. “For a hundred years, it has been proven — where the plow passes, the border and security follow. The war must end in an expansion of the State of Israel’s borders.” Smotrich, leader of the Religious Zionism party, is one of the Israeli government’s most outspoken proponents of the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and Israeli takeover of the territory. His position is not a fringe view in the government, as it has also been expressed by other senior officials, including Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, who has previously stated that Israel will never leave Gaza and will eventually start establishing settlements.
Hungary's Incoming Prime Minister Says ICC Warrant Will Be Enforced If Netanyahu Enters the Country - Hungary’s incoming prime minister, Peter Magyar, has said that his government would fulfill its obligations as a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu if he entered the country. The ICC issued its warrants for Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant back in 2024 over their role in war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza. The court also sought warrants for three Hamas leaders, but they have all been killed by Israel. Hungary’s outgoing leader, Viktor Orban, hosted Netanyahu in Budapest last year and announced his intention to withdraw Hungary from the ICC, something Magyar has said he will reverse. Netanyahu spoke with Magyar last week after Magyar’s election victory and said that the prime minister-elect had invited him to Budapest, raising questions about Magyar’s position on the ICC warrant. When asked to clarify on Monday, Magyar said he had invited all the world leaders he had spoken with to the 70th anniversary of Hungary’s 1956 anti-Soviet uprising, but that he would still enforce the warrant. Magyar told reporters that he made it clear “even to the Israeli prime minister” that he intended to stop Hungary’s withdrawal from the ICC before it takes effect on June 2.“If someone is a member of the International Criminal Court and a person who is wanted enters our country, then they must be taken into custody,” he said. “I don’t need to spell everything out over the phone. I assume that every head of state and government is familiar with these laws.”
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