Powell says Fed doesn't need to be 'in a hurry' to reduce interest rates -Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that strong U.S. economic growth will allow policymakers to take their time in deciding how far and how fast to lower interest rates. "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," Powell said in remarks for a speech to business leaders in Dallas. "The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully." In an upbeat assessment of current conditions, the central bank leader called domestic growth "by far the best of any major economy in the world." Specifically, he said the labor market is holding up well despite disappointing job growth in October that he largely attributed to storm damage in the Southeast and labor strikes. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 12,000 for the period. Powell noted that the unemployment rate has been rising but has flattened out in recent months and remains low by historical standards. On the question of inflation, he cited progress that has been "broad based," noting that Fed officials expect it to continue to drift back toward the central bank's 2% goal. Inflation data this week, however, showed a slight uptick in both consumer and producer prices, with 12-month rates pulling further away from the Fed mandate. Still, Powell said the two indexes are indicating inflation by the Fed's preferred measure at 2.3% in October, or 2.8% excluding food and energy. "Inflation is running much closer to our 2 percent longer-run goal, but it is not there yet. We are committed to finishing the job," said Powell, who noted that getting there could be "on a sometimes-bumpy path." Powell's cautious view on rate cuts sent stocks lower and Treasury yields higher. Traders also lowered their expectations for a December rate cut. The remarks come a week after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the central bank's benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point, pushing it down into a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. That followed a half-point cut in September. Powell has called the moves a recalibration of monetary policy that no longer needs to be focused primarily on stomping out inflation and now has a balanced aim at sustaining the labor market as well. Markets still largely expect the Fed to continue with another quarter-point cut in December and then a few more in 2025. However, Powell was noncommittal when it came to providing his own forecast. The Fed is seeking to guide its key rate down to a neutral setting that neither boosts nor inhibits growth, but is not sure what the end point will be. "We are confident that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the economy and the labor market can be maintained, with inflation moving sustainably down to 2 percent," he said. "We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset." Powell added that the calculus of getting the move to neutral rate will be tricky. "We're navigating between … the risk that we move too quickly and the risk that we move too slowly. We want to go down the middle and get it just right so that we're providing support for the labor market but also helping enable inflation to come down," he said. "So going a little slower, if the data let us go a little slower, that seems like a smart thing to do." The Fed also has been allowing proceeds from its bond holdings to roll off its mammoth balance sheet each month. There have been no indications of when that process might end.
Fed Chair Powell: No "signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates" --From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: The recent performance of our economy has been remarkably good, by far the best of any major economy in the world. Economic output grew by more than 3 percent last year and is expanding at a stout 2.5 percent rate so far this year. ... The labor market remains in solid condition, having cooled off from the significantly overheated conditions of a couple of years ago, and is now by many metrics back to more normal levels that are consistent with our employment mandate. ... We are moving policy over time to a more neutral setting. But the path for getting there is not preset. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, we will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates. The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully. Ultimately, the path of the policy rate will depend on how the incoming data and the economic outlook evolve.
Fed's Collins won't rule out a December rate cut, on Bloomberg TV (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said Friday she wants to see more data before deciding whether the central bank should cut rates again at its policy meeting next month. Speaking on Bloomberg's television channel, Collins said when it comes to a rate cut following three quarters of a percentage points' worth of cuts at the last two meetings, "I certainly wouldn’t take December off the table. But again, we're not on a preset path and so we'll have a look carefully at the data and see what make sense when we get" to the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting, she said. Markets are questioning whether the Fed will press forward with rate cuts at its next meeting in the wake of some new data pointing to firmer inflation pressures. This comes also at a time when Donald Trump has been elected president again on an economic platform of trade tariffs and mass deportations, which broad swathes of economists expect will reignite inflation. On Thursday Fed leader Jerome Powell said "the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates," with economic strength allowing officials the space to deliberate on monetary policy "carefully." Powell declined to say how Trump's preferred policy path will affect the economy and Collins did likewise in her interview. The Boston Fed leader noted monetary policy is still restricting the economy and said "normalizing that will be important." She described monetary policy as "well positioned" given where the economy is right now, with a healthy labor sector and a general moderation in price pressures.
Fed's Kugler: Independence 'necessary' to achieve policy goals - A Federal Reserve official made the case for protecting central bank independence from electoral politics. In a speech, Federal Reserve Gov. Adriana Kugler said sound monetary policy comes when electoral politics are kept out of central banking.
Fed's Powell declines to say if he would remain after chair term expires (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday declined to say whether he would remain at the U.S. central bank as a board member after his term as chief expires in May 2026. Powell, asked at an event in Dallas whether he would consider being the first Fed chair in more than seven decades to remain on the Fed board after no longer serving as its leader, said only that he is committed to serving out his term as chair."I'll certainly serve to the end ... of my chair term," Powell said. "And that's really all I've decided, and all I'm thinking about."Powell's term as a Board of Governors member expires in January 2028. The last former Fed chair to continue serving beyond their term as its leader was Marriner Eccles, who ceased being the Fed's leader in January 1948, but continued on the board until July 1951.The question follows a suggestion by one individual under consideration for a leading economic role in Donald Trump's incoming administration that the next president nominate and the Senate confirm a successor to Powell long before the current central bank chief's term expires.The idea, floated last month by Scott Bessent, whom Trump is considering for Treasury secretary, would be to weaken Powell's authority for the remainder of his tenure while an already-approved successor advocated in the wings for monetary policy more palatable to Trump. “You could do the earliest Fed nomination and create a shadow Fed chair,” Bessent told Barron’s. “And based on the concept of forward guidance, no one is really going to care what Jerome Powell has to say anymore.” Presidents typically do not wait for the current chair's term to expire before nominating a successor or renominating the incumbent, but the window is normally on the order of three to four months, a period largely consumed by the Senate confirmation process and not one that would allow the nominee to usurp authority from a current Fed chief.
We May Not Get Our Recession until the AI Spending Bubble Implodes -- by Wolf Richter • The amount of money that gets spent on AI is just mind-boggling. This spending shows up in two categories on corporate financial statements: One on the income statement where it drives up expenses and pushes down earnings; and the other on the balance sheet, where it’s called “capital expenditures,” an asset, with no impact on expenses and earnings right now, but at a later date. AI-related spending on the income statement that push down earnings include salaries of AI-related staff, additional office space, software services, electricity to power and cool AI data centers, costs of leasing AI servers, the engineering and design work that goes into all this, etc. AI-related capital expenditures that go on the balance sheet as an asset include the purchases of AI servers with chips from Nvidia and others, construction or purchase of data centers – the size of AI data centers is expressed in the amount of electricity they can consume at capacity, such as a “500-megawatt data center” – the construction of powerplants and grid infrastructure to supply electricity to these data centers, the costs of reactivating nuclear reactors and retired fossil fuel plants, the land acquisition costs, etc. These are vast amounts of money that are now getting spent. The Magnificent 7 talk a lot about it, Nvidia hyping the “insane demand” for its chips, and the others spending that money on those chips. Tesla has announced that it would expand its data centers to 500-megawatt centers, and then to 1,000 megawatt centers. Microsoft said that it spent $20 billion on capital expenditures in the last quarter, not counting the stuff that it expensed to the income statement, such as the AI-related compensation costs. Meta said that it anticipates capital expenditures “of approximately $38 billion to $40 billion in 2024,” and that it expects “significant” growth of those capital expenditures in 2025, all related to AI. Amazon is on track to spend $75 billion on capital expenditures in 2024, up from $48 billion last year, and said it will spend even more next year. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy called AI a “maybe once-in-a-lifetime type of opportunity.” And then what? But it’s not just these big companies that are spending the 10s of billions of dollars each on AI, and in ever larger amounts. It’s also less huge and smaller companies that are heavily spending on AI infrastructure, AI services, and AI-related compensation costs. AI startups are getting billions of dollars of funding. Then there are the utilities that are spending to provide the power to data centers, and construction companies building the AI infrastructure, AI consultants, AI conferences, AI whatever. Companies are burning through their huge cash piles right now to do this, and they’re directing their operating cashflows into this, and some are borrowing to do this. Since this spending comes from corporate balance sheets and from cashflows from other operations, they’re essentially recycling that cash that they would otherwise have invested in T-bills and other securities and they’re plowing it into the economy, and it begins to circulate. AI workers and construction workers and the people that make their sandwiches are spending their income, and people and companies that receive that spending are also spending it, and the cash that was stuck on corporate balance sheets begins to circulate, and operating cashflows circulate, and borrowed funds circulate, and it all circulates and circulates and creates economic activity, from restaurants to freight companies that ship the AI servers. This is the Dotcom Bubble all over again, but bigger, and spread wider. This amount of spending that is circulating around the economy is very stimulative. And what came out of the Dotcom Bubble was an immensely useable internet, where nearly everyone has broadband, even on their cellphones, and a lot of economic activity has moved to the internet, eventually decimating entire activities and replacing them with new activities. But when the huge amounts of investments and spending by companies and venture capital firms slowed, and the slowdown circulated through the economy, just as the cash had circulated through it, the Dotcom Bust ensued, amid massive job destruction in internet-related tech. This reduction in spending and investment circulated, just like the cash had circulated, and it triggered the recession from March 2001 through November 2001. Ultimately the Nasdaq plunged 78%, and the S&P 500 50% over a two-and-half year period from March 2000 through September 2002. It took the S&P 500 13 years, and the Nasdaq 15 years – plus trillions of dollars of money printing – to surpass the March 2000 highs, and lots of stocks just vanished. But the internet has become an economy-changing force. What could cause the next recession? AI spending too will slow someday, and then the hangover starts. We’ll hear about it during the earnings calls from Meta, Alphabet, etc. They’re already under pressure to show results and slow down this AI-related cash burn. And we’ll hear about it during the earnings calls from companies that sell the chips and servers. And when Corporate America slows down AI-related capital expenditures, and “right-sizes” AI-related staff and other spending, it will circulate through the economy, leading to slowdowns at the companies that received that spending, and it circulates from there, accompanied by a significant selloff in stocks that whacks people’s sense of wealth, causing them to cut spending as well, even if they’re not in tech. And that may be when we finally get our recession. But this stuff takes years. Until then, that kind of widespread spending from corporate balance sheets and cash flows that circulates and circulates is very stimulative of the economy.
Economic Outlook and the Election – Bill McBride - After the election in November 2016, I pointed out that the economy was solid, that there were significant economic tailwinds and that it was unlikely that Mr. Trump would do everything he said during the campaign (emphasis added). See: The Future is still Bright! and The Cupboard is Full. I was pretty optimistic on the economic outlook! By early 2019, I was becoming more concerned: "So far Mr. Trump has had a limited negative impact on the economy. ... Fortunately the cupboard was full when Trump took office, and luckily there hasn't been a significant crisis". Unfortunately, the COVID crisis struck in early 2020 and Trump performed poorly. Once again, the economy is in good shape (last week Fed Chair Powell called the economy "remarkable"), and it is unlikely Mr. Trump will do most of what he said during the campaign. For example, he promised no taxes on tips or overtime, the return of $2 gasoline, repealing and replacing the ACA, and deporting 20+ million people. All of that is unlikely. There are many other proposals, such as revamping the Federal workforce and dramatically cutting the Federal budget, that are unclear. Trump will likely renew the tax cuts for the wealthy, increase tariffs - especially on imports from China - limit legal immigration (Trump said the "Country is full"), and increase deportations (but not anywhere close to the 20 million he said during the campaign). Note: I don't expect any tariffs on Canada and Mexico. However, the economic tailwinds are more limited in 2024 than in 2016, so the margin for error is smaller.For example, in 2016, I was positive on housing starts and new home sales. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.The black arrow points to the election in 2016, and I was projecting further increases in housing starts.It now seems likely that housing starts will move more sideways.Also, in 2016, demographics were improving, and the largest cohort in US history was moving into their peak earning years. Now, demographics are more neutral, and possibly even negative if legal immigration is limited.Also, I don't expect any progress over the next four years on key long-term economic issues like climate change and income / wealth inequality (that will likely get worse). Since Trump's policies will not be evidence based (he rejects data that doesn't fit his views), I expect generally bad results. However - as in his previous term - bad policies might mean higher deficits with little return - not an economic downturn. Until we see the actual policy proposals, it is hard to predict the impact. I will write more as policies are enacted. However, I'm not sanguine.
BankThink: Trump's economic plan undermines his economic mandate -- There's an aphorism in Washington known as a "mandate," whereby a candidate's electoral victory confers legitimacy on their preferred policies. That expression hasn't been widely used for a long time, if for no other reason than because most of the last half-dozen presidential elections have been nail-bitingly close. The president-elect's sweeping victory last week suggests a mandate from voters to bring back the economy he presided over in his prior term. But his policies on immigration, trade and federal spending could give voters — and banks — exactly what they don't want.
Pentagon To Send Contractors to Ukraine To Repair US-Made Weapons - Pentagon officials said Friday that the US will send American contractors to Ukraine to help repair US-made weapons, marking another escalation of US involvement in the proxy war. “In order to help Ukraine repair and maintain military equipment provided by the US and its allies, DoD is soliciting bids for a small number of contractors who will help Ukraine maintain the assistance we’ve already provided,” a Pentagon official told CNN on Friday.The report said the decision to send contractors was made before the US presidential election. The contractors are expected to focus on the maintenance of US-made F-16 fighter jets, Patriot air defense systems, and other advanced equipment.The official speaking to CNN said the contractors will “be located far from the front lines, and they will not be fighting Russian forces.”The official also downplayed the idea that the sending of Pentagon contractors will significantly change things on the ground, saying there is already “a wide array of American companies who have personnel in Ukraine fulfilling contracts for the Ukrainian government, so this will not lead to a substantial increase of employees of US companies working on the ground in Ukraine.”The US has a few dozen Pentagon personnel based at the US Embassy in Kyiv and a small number of special operations forces in the country (14 as of March 2023). There are also an unknown number of CIA operativeson the ground as the spy agency has been deeply enmeshed with Ukrainian intelligence since 2014.
White House sends military contractors to Ukraine -The Biden administration has authorized US military contractors to deploy to Ukraine in a major escalation of US involvement in the war with Russia in Ukraine. The White House confirmed the move in a statement to multiple news outlets, including CNN and the Russian news outlet TASS. The announcement follows the electoral defeat of Vice President Kamala Harris by the fascist Donald Trump. The indifference of the Biden-Harris administration and the Democratic Party to the worsening social conditions for working people in the United States was the principal factor in the electoral victory of the former president, but he was also able to make a demagogic appeal to popular hostility to the war in Ukraine. With just two months left in office, the primary concern of the Biden administration is that the Ukraine war continue. To that end, Biden, seeking to create “facts on the ground,” has carried out this major escalation of the war. “In order to help Ukraine repair and maintain military equipment provided by the US and its allies, DoD is soliciting bids for a small number of contractors who will help Ukraine maintain the assistance we’ve already provided,” the Pentagon spokesman told TASS. The spokesperson added, “Some of the equipment the US has provided Ukraine—or will provide Ukraine in the coming months—such as F-16s and Patriot air defense systems require specific technical expertise to maintain.” The Pentagon added, “Each US contractor, organization, or company will be responsible for the safety and security of their employees and will be required to include risk mitigation plans as part of their bids.” The Pentagon spokesperson also said, “There are already US government contractors working in Ukraine as the Department of State and USAID have been directly contracting US companies to assist with a variety of tasks, including helping strengthen Ukraine’s energy grid and providing economic support.” In reality, these military contractors will serve as a “tripwire.” If they are attacked, it can be used to instigate a campaign to demand the escalation of the war. Last year, the World Socialist Web Site explained that one major consequence of high-tech weapons like the Abrams battle tank, as significant as their effect on the battlefield in Ukraine, was the required deployment of contractors to service them. America’s vast fleet of M1 Abrams tanks is serviced by civilian contractors at Army bases throughout the world, and these civilian contractors are generally Americans with specialized knowledge and skills, including direct employees of General Dynamics and other major arms manufacturers. The Abrams, the Army’s most complex vehicle, requires about eight man-hours of maintenance for every hour it serves in operation. Thousands of civilian maintenance personnel from NATO countries will be deployed to Ukraine, along with the creation of massive supply chains for the specialized high-tech, precision parts required to keep the machines in operation, stretching hundreds of miles from the eastern front through Poland and to US bases in Germany. These supply lines and American personnel will likely become targets of Russian attacks on the weapons systems flowing into Ukraine. The demand, first raised early in the war, to “close the skies” and initiate a no-fly zone will quickly be raised by the entire US media, in order to “save the lives” of Americans deployed in Ukraine. It is precisely such an escalatory spiral that the Biden administration is seeking to put into effect in its remaining time in office. In an interview with the “Face the Nation” talk show on Sunday, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that President Joe Biden will hold a meeting with President-elect Donald Trump on Wednesday, during which Ukraine would be a major subject of discussion. “President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to Congress and the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe,” Sullivan said. The Biden administration is also seeking to pass a major package of Ukraine funding through Congress, on top of the $174 billion that has already been spent on the war to date. Over the weekend, Ukraine launched 34 drones on Moscow, in the largest attack on the Russian capital since the start of the war. There are growing signs that Ukraine is facing a military collapse on the battlefield, with US newspapers claiming that Russia has massed 50,000 fresh troops, including allegedly troops supplied by North Korea, for an attack on Ukrainian troops that have captured territory in the Russian oblast (district) of Kursk. Ukrainian troops, meanwhile, continue to suffer major setbacks in eastern Ukraine.
Report: Trump Spoke With Putin, Told Him Not To Escalate in Ukraine - (see update) President-elect Donald Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin following his election victory last week, The Washington Postreported on Sunday. A source told the Post that Trump advised Putin not to escalate in Ukraine and reminded the Russian leader of the sizeable US military presence in Europe. Sources also said they discussed bringing peace to Europe, and Trump expressed interest in a follow-up call to discuss “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon.”The call took place on Thursday, one day after the president-elect spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. According to Axios, Elon Musk joined Trump in the call with Zelensky, and the Ukrainian leader was somewhat reassured by what he heard.Trump campaigned on ending the proxy war, and the Biden administration is worried that he’ll do just that after inauguration day. The Biden team is looking to rush billions in weapons shipments to Ukraine before January 20 to exhaust over $6 billion it has remaining to spend on the conflict.National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said President Biden will try to convince Trump to continue the proxy war. “President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to the Congress and to the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe,” Sullivan said.Biden and Trump are expected to talk this Wednesday, and Sullivan said Biden “will have the chance to explain to President Trump how he sees things, where they stand, and talk to President Trump about how President Trump is thinking about taking on these issues when he takes office.” Update 11/11/24 at 12:46 pm EST: The Kremlin denied Putin and Trump held a call, calling the report “pure fiction”
Kremlin Denies Report of Trump-Putin Call, Says It's 'Pure Fiction' - The Kremlin on Monday denied a report that Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with President-elect Donald Trump last week, calling it “pure fiction.”The Washington Post reported on Sunday that Trump spoke with Putin on Thursday and advised the Russian leader not to escalate in Ukraine. “There was no conversation,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. “This is completely untrue; it’s pure fiction.”Peskov said the report was “the most remarkable example of the quality of the information that is published nowadays, sometimes even by quite respected outlets.”When asked about the report, Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Trump,declined to comment. “We do not comment on private calls between President Trump and other world leaders,” he told BBC.The Post report said that Ukraine was informed of the Trump-Putin phone call, but a Ukrainian official denied that was the case. “Reports that the Ukrainian side was informed in advance of the alleged call are false. Subsequently, Ukraine could not have endorsed or opposed the call,” Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi toldReuters.Trump campaigned on ending the proxy war in Ukraine, and both he and Putin have signaled that they’re willing to talk with each other on the issue. The Post report said that in the alleged phone call, Trump advised Putin not to escalate in Ukraine and reminded the Russian leader of the US military presence in Europe. The report also claimed that Trump expressed interest in a follow-up call to discuss “the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon.”
Trump Expected To Appoint Ukraine Peace Envoy 'Soon': Fox - President-elect Donald Trump has long promised to immediately negotiate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war upon entering office. Fox News is reporting Wednesday that toward this end he may "soon" appoint a Ukrainian peace envoy to head this up. "You're going to see a very senior special envoy, someone with a lot of credibility, who will be given a task to find a resolution, to get to a peace settlement," one of several sources told Fox. The person previewed that the appointment will happen "in short order." Fox notes that "The job is not expected to be a salaried role - from 2017 to 2019, Kurt Volker had served as special representative to Ukrainian negotiations on a volunteer basis." This comes amid the last couple days of new members of Trump's future administration being announced. Many Trump supporters have observed that hawks have filled up key posts so far - with most being known especially for their stridently pro-Israel positions, such as Pete Hegseth, nominated for Defense Secretary. Steven Witkoff has also been named as special envoy for the Middle East. Over the weekend a Washington Post report said Trump held his first phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin wherein Trump warned the Russian leader not to escalate in Ukraine. Strangely, the Kremlin is denying that the phone call ever took place. As for what a potential Trump peace plan for Ukraine might look like, the WSJ days ago revealed that a main option being considered would see a 'freeze' on the war, which to Kiev's dismay would involve "cementing Russia’s seizure of roughly 20 percent of Ukraine" while imposing a 20-year suspension on Ukraine pursuing NATO membership. Informal Trump adviser Elon Musk responded to a report about that plan on X, writing that "The senseless killing will end soon. Time is up for the warmonger profiteers."As for who might be named special envoy for Ukraine peace, it's anyone's guess. Most State Department veterans who have worked on the conflict are likely hawks. Thus the "old hands" are unlikely to back any plan which permanently cedes the Donbass to Russian control.This means Trump would likely need an 'outsider' for his vision of enacting a rapid Ukraine ceasefire to have a chance. But it would also likely be someone commanding respect and influence among the Ukrainian and Russian sides.
Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia-Ukraine war will end ‘faster’ under Donald Trump - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the Russia-Ukraine war will end “faster” under President-elect Trump. Zelensky acknowledged the tough circumstances his military is in currently during an interviewwith Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne, which was published Saturday, but emphasized that the conflict has to end “next year through diplomatic means.” The Ukrainian leader told the outlet the conflict “will end faster with the policy of this team that will now lead the White House,” referencing the incoming Republican administration. Trump has repeatedly said on the campaign trail that the invasion, which has been ongoing for over two-and-half years, would not have occurred if he was still in the White House and argued he could end the conflict in one day without elaborating on exactly how. “This is their approach, their promise to their society, and it is also very important to them,” Zelensky said in the interview. The Russian military has made advances in parts of southeastern and eastern Ukraine as it also prepares to kick off a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, an area where Kyiv made gains in August. “There is a slow but steady pressure and advance of the Russians,” Zelensky said but also pointed to losses the Russian military sustained in recent weeks. Following Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential election, Zelensky said he had a productive conversation with the president-elect, a phone call that was joined by billionaire Elon Musk.
State Department: Israel not in violation of US law on humanitarian aid to Gaza - The State Department on Tuesday said that Israel is not in violation of U.S. law related to the delivery and access of humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip, despite pushback from aid groups and the United Nations. The U.N. and aid groups have sounded the alarm over dire conditions for Palestinians’ access to food, medical care and shelter. The U.S. assessment came at the end of a 30-day timeline where Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin issued a warning to the Israeli government that concrete steps needed to be taken to increase humanitarian assistance deliveries into the Gaza Strip or risk triggering a block on U.S. weapons deliveries under federal law. “We, at this time, have not made an assessment that the Israelis are in violation of U.S. law,” State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said on Tuesday. “Israel has taken a number of steps to address the measures laid out in the letter that secretaries Blinken and Austin sent earlier in October. We continue to be in discussion with our partners in Israel about these steps that they’ve taken, which they took as a result of U.S. intervention, as well as additional steps that we feel that still need to be taken.” The U.S. assessment came after eight international aid organizations said Israel had failed to meet the criteria laid out by Blinken and Austin. They said Israel had taken actions “that dramatically worsened the situation on the ground particularly in Northern Gaza,” The Associated Press reported.
US Confirms Israel Will Face No Consequences for Not Improving Aid Situation in Gaza The Biden administration said Tuesday that it will not limit weapons transfers to Israel despite Israel’s failure to meet US demands to increase aid levels in Gaza amid the starvation blockade and ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza.The administration sent a letter to Israeli officials on October 13, giving Israel 30 days to allow more aid into Gaza, but it did not explicitly say there would be consequences. Tuesday marked the end of the 30-day deadline, and Israel didn’t come close to meeting the US demands. The State Department said it won’t change any policies toward Israel, confirming the letter was nothing more than a pre-election public relations ploy.The letter said Israel must increase aid deliveries to 350 trucks per day, but State Department spokesman Vedant Patel claimed the US doesn’t even know how many trucks have entered the Strip in the last 30 days. The UN has said it has only received 39 trucks per day since the beginning of October.Patel also claimed that Israel took some steps to improve the situation, but aid groups said on Tuesday that the situation in Gaza has only gotten worse since the US sent the letter and that the aid levels are at the lowest point yet.“Israel not only failed to meet the US criteria that would indicate support to the humanitarian response but concurrently took actions that dramatically worsened the situation on the ground, particularly in northern Gaza,” a group of aid organizations said.Patel also claimed that Israel’s conduct was not in violation of US foreign assistance laws that prohibit military aid to countries that commit human rights abuses and purposely block humanitarian aid. The Biden administration has ignored hundreds of reports of US weapons being used by Israel to kill civilians unnecessarily.US military aid is enabling Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign, which has cut northern Gaza in half as Israeli forces are focusing on cleansing the cities of Jabalia, Beit Hanoun, and Beit Lahia, where no aid has been allowed since early October. Israeli media has acknowledged the ethnic cleansing campaign, and the Israeli military has said it won’t allow Palestinian residents to return to their homes, which are being destroyed.
White House endorses Israel’s deliberate starvation policy in Gaza -- The US State Department determined Tuesday that Israel is not violating international human rights law by withholding food to Gaza, effectively endorsing Israel’s policy of deliberately seeking to exterminate the population of Gaza through starvation. Multiple US laws, including Section 502B and 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act and the “Leahy Law,” prohibit the government from arming militaries that the State Department deems to be committing “gross violations of human rights.” A National Security Memorandum, dubbed NSM-20, issued by the Biden administration declared that “the United States must maintain an appropriate understanding of foreign partners’ adherence to international law.” On October 13, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin sent a letter to the Israeli government warning that unless Israel massively increased the provision of food to Gaza, “these measures may have implications for US policy under NSM-20,” implying that Israel was in danger of being deemed as having violated human rights law and would not receive further military aid. The letter demanded that Israel enable “a minimum of 350 trucks per day to enter Gaza.” As of Tuesday, only 400 trucks had entered the territory for the entire month, meaning that the amount of food allowed into Gaza is just one-tenth of that officially demanded by the US. Pressed by reporters, State Department spokesman Vedant Patel declared, “We have not made an assessment that the Israelis are in violation of US law” and by implication international law. Under conditions in which Israeli officials have made clear that they are implementing a deliberate policy of starvation as a method of war and collective punishment, this assessment constitutes an open embrace by the US government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s mass starvation policy. The letter by Blinken and Austin was intended as a diplomatic smokescreen, aimed at obscuring the fact that the United States had in fact endorsed Israel’s policy of deliberate starvation of the population of Gaza. But in issuing their ultimatum, the US officials created the circumstances for what happened today: the explicit and public endorsement by the US government of mass starvation as a weapon of war. On October 12, CNN reported that the Netanyahu government had adopted a “version of” the so-called “Generals’ Plan” proposed by retired IDF General Giora Eiland, which calls for completely cutting off all food to northern Gaza and treating all civilians there as enemy combatants, subject to killing by Israeli forces. CNN reported: A former senior military official who is aware of the Israeli government and security leadership’s thinking—though not directly involved in decision-making—told CNN that the cabinet had adopted “a version of” Eiland’s proposal, which has come to be known as “The Generals’ Plan.” Eiland told CNN the claim was “quite true.” On November 5, IDF Brigadier General Itzik Cohen told reporters that the IDF would not allow food to enter northern Gaza because there are “no more civilians left.” In reality, between 50,000 and 75,000 people are estimated to remain in northern Gaza, according to the United Nations. These civilians, officially designated enemy combatants by the Israeli government, are being subjected to deliberate and explicit starvation and mass killing. The declaration by the State Department that Israel is not committing human rights violations by its deliberate mass starvation policy in fact makes official the contents of a private discussion between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Netanyahu on October 22. The Washington Post reported: US officials told Netanyahu there is a “perception” that Israel is pursuing a strategy of “isolating the north, telling people that if they don’t leave they’re effectively targets and denying food to go in,” said the official. In response to this blunt declaration, Blinken issued a communique declaring the United States’ blanket support for Israel: “The Secretary reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security” and pledged to continue “ongoing efforts by the United States and its partners” to support Israel.
Global Fury After State Dept Claims Israel Not Violating US Law by Blocking Gaza Aid Human rights advocates around the world reacted angrily to Tuesday's U.S. State Department determination that Israel is not violating humanitarian law—even as its forces annihilate Gaza and block aid from entering the embattled Palestinian enclave.Last month, the Biden administration—which has approved tens of billions of dollars in military aid for Israel and provided nearly unconditional diplomatic support since October 2023—sent a letter to the Israeli government threatening to cut off U.S. arms transfers if it failed to take "urgent and sustained actions" to improve humanitarian conditions in Gaza within 30 days.Asked during a Tuesday press conference if the Israeli government has met the letter's demands, State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said that "we have not made an assessment that they are in violation of U.S. law.""The overall humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to be unsatisfactory," Patel continued. "But in the context of the letter, it's not about whether we find something satisfactory or not; it's what are the actions that we're seeing.""These actions that we have seen, we think that these are steps in the right direction," he added, citing the limited reopening of the Erez border crossing between Gaza and Israel. "We want to see more steps. We want to see these steps sustained over a significant period of time, and ultimately, we want to see these steps have a result on the situation."Patel insisted that the Biden administration is "not giving Israel a pass."However, humanitarian aid groups accuse Israel of causing "apocalyptic" conditions in northern Gaza, where thousands of civiliansincluding many women and children have been killed or wounded while others face imminent famine under a plan to starve out the population in order to ethnically cleanse the area.On Tuesday, a coalition of eight international humanitarian groups including Oxfam International, CARE, Norwegian Refugee Council, Save the Children, and others published a report titled The Gaza Scorecard: Israel Fails to Comply With U.S. Humanitarian Access Demands in Gaza, which found that Israel has failed to fully comply with any of the 19 specific demands in the Biden administration's letter.
Trump Picks Mike Huckabee, Supporter of Israeli Annexation, as Ambassador to Israel - -- President-elect Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that he nominated former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a proponent of Israeli annexation of the West Bank, to be the US ambassador to Israel.“I am pleased to announce that the Highly Respected former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, has been nominated to be The United States Ambassador to Israel,” Trump said in a statement.“Mike has been a great public servant, Governor, and Leader in Faith for many years. He loves Israel, and the people of Israel, and likewise, the people of Israel love him. Mike will work tirelessly to bring about Peace in the Middle East!” Trump added.Huckabee, an Evangelical Christian who believes God gave historic Palestine to the modern state of Israel, is an outspoken proponent of Israel’s expansion in the occupied West Bank, which he calls Judea and Samaria.While visiting an Israeli settlement in the West Bank in 2017, Huckabee claimed the territory was not under Israeli occupation. “I think Israel has title deed to Judea and Samaria,” Huckabee told CNN. “There are certain words I refuse to use. There is no such thing as a West Bank. It’s Judea and Samaria. There’s no such thing as a settlement. They’re communities, they’re neighborhoods, they’re cities. There’s no such thing as an occupation.”Back in 2008, during his presidential campaign, Huckabee said there was “really no such thing as a Palestinian.” Here is Mike Huckabee, Trump's pick to be ambassador to Israel, saying in 2008 that there's "no such thing as a Palestinian" and explaining his idea to send them to one of the Arab states 9video) During the previous Trump administration, Huckabee said that he hopedthe White House would support Israeli annexation of the West Bank and said he had conversations with Trump about the issue. According toHaaretz, Huckabee has long had close relations with Israeli settler groups.Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the Jewish Power party who wants West Bank annexation and Jewish settlements in Gaza, celebrated Huckabee’s nomination by tweeting out his name along with a heart emoji, an American flag, and an Israeli flag.David Friedman, Trump’s former ambassador to Israel, congratulated Huckabee. “I am thrilled by President Trump’s nomination of Governor Mike Huckabee as the next Ambassador to Israel. He is a dear friend and he will have my full support. Congrats Mike on getting the best job in the world,” he said.Freidman also favors Israeli annexation of the West Bank and recently published a book calling for the US to fund it to the tune of $1 billion. Friedman was rumored to be in the running to fill the ambassador position again before Huckabee was chosen.
Netanyahu Says He Spoke With Trump Three Times Since Election - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that he’s spoken with President-elect Donald Trump three times since his election victory last week and that they were on the same page on Iran. “These were very good and important conversations,” Netanyahu said. “We see eye to eye on the Iranian threat in all its components and the danger it poses. We also see the great opportunities that Israel faces, in the field of peace and its expansion, and in other areas.” Netanyahu was one of the first foreign leaders to call Trump on his election victory and is likely trying to influence the president-elect to continue providing support for Israel’s military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and the West Bank. A senior Israeli official told Axios that Netanyahu is sending one of his top aides, Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, to Mar-a-Lago this week. Dermer is also meeting with Biden administration officials in Washington, but Israeli media said the real purpose of the US trip was to hold talks with Trump and his advisors. Trump has vowed that he will strongly support Israel when he returns to office, as he did in his previous administration, and has accused President Biden of abandoning the Jewish State despite the fact that the Biden administration has provided more aid to Israel than any other in US history.Trump has said Israel has to “finish the problem,” referring to the genocidal campaign in Gaza. According to a report from The Times of Israel, Trump has told Netanyahu that he wants the war to be over by the time he returns to office by January 20, 2025. However, one of the Times’ sources stressed that Trump wasn’t specific in his appeal to Netanyahu and could well back “residual” Israeli military activity in Gaza. The president-elect also recently spoke with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and told him he wants to work to end the war in Gaza.
Smotrich Says Trump Victory Gives Israel 'Opportunity' To Annex West Bank - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Monday that Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election provides an “important opportunity” for Israel to annex settlements in the occupied West Bank.“The year 2025 will be, with God’s help, the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria,” Smotrich said, using the biblical name for the West Bank.The Israeli minister said he had “no doubt that President Trump, who showed courage and determination in his decisions in the first term, will support the State of Israel in this move.”Smotrich listed steps Trump took to support Israel during his first term in office, including moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, and declaring that illegal Israeli settlements were consistent with international law.Smotrich, a settler himself, also holds a position in the Defense Ministry that puts him in charge of settlement expansion in the West Bank. In that post, Smotrich has overseen significant settlement expansion and the single largest Israeli land grab in the West Bank in 30 years.Smotrich may have a strong ally in the incoming US administration if David Friedman, Trump’s former ambassador to Israel, returns. Friedman just recently published a book calling for the US to fund Israel’s annexation of the West Bank to the tune of $1 billion.Many ministers in Israel’s government, including Smotrich, also support re-establishing Jewish settlements in Gaza, and Israeli forces are currently conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign in the northern portion of the Strip to make that a reality.
Israel Said Seeking Lebanon Ceasefire By January As 'Gift' To Trump -- It is no secret that Israeli leaders are overjoyed both at Donald Trump winning the US Presidency, and especially many of his very pro-Israel picks for foreign policy related positions in his administration. On Wednesday night The Washington Post issued an usual headline which says Israel is seeking to forge a Lebanon ceasefire plan as a "gift" the Trump."There is an understanding that Israel would gift something to Trump… that in January there will be an understanding about Lebanon," an unnamed Israeli official told the Post."A close aide to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Donald Trump and Jared Kushner this week that Israel is rushing to advance a cease-fire deal in Lebanon, according to three current and former Israeli officials briefed on the meeting, with the aim of delivering an early foreign policy win to the president-elect," the report details.US special envoy for Lebanon Amos Hochstein has this week said "there is a shot" of securing a ceasefire deal in Lebanon soon. Axios wrote that "It would be a major achievement for Biden in his final months in office." But clearly the Israelis are making it be known that they would rather deal with Trump in matters of war and peace in the region. Thus it's expected that the war raging in south Lebanon will at least go on into January.Like with Ukraine, Trump is pledging to quickly bring to an end wars which have Washington involvement; however, in a phone call last month he told PM Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” against Hezbollah and Hamas.One career US diplomat in the Middle East region was cited in WaPo as saying "Netanyahu has no loyalty to Biden and will be focused entirely on currying favor with Trump."Starting days ago Israel began making contacts with the Trump transition team. On Sunday Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago resort. Dermer and Trump reportedly discussed Israel's plans for Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran over the course of the coming months. The Israelis notified the White House about the meeting in Florida.A US-backed ceasefire plan currently being discussed would heavily rely on UN peacekeeping forces and Lebanese army soldiers deploying near the Israeli border to ensure Hezbollah doesn't move back in once the Israeli army departs.
UN Warns Israel Committing ‘Severe Violations’ of Ceasefire with Syria - The United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) issued a statement today relating to the recent AP story about Israel carrying out military construction along the Alpha Line meant to restrict where Israel’s military can operate. The Alpha Line designates a DMZ zone between the Golan Heights and the rest of Syria.The UNDOF warns that Israel is committing “severe violations” of the 1974 ceasefire with Syria by carrying out such a major construction project. While building a road along the DMZ, Israeli troops entered Syrian territory frequently. Interestingly, these severe violations are distinct from the almost daily Israeli airstrikes against Syria.Under the terms of the ceasefire, Israel’s military is not to operate beyond the Alpha Line. There is also a Beta Line, which limits where the Syrian military can operate. The area between them is a demilitarized zone in which UNDOF observers operate.Because UNDOF is more focused on the the ceasefire along the DMZ, it doesn’t usually comment on the Israeli airstrikes against Syria, which are increasingly common. These attacks are substantial violations of the ceasefire, of course, but they’re outside of UNDOF’s purview.Satellite images show Israel is constructing a road along the Alpha Line. That’s not necessarily a huge problem itself, but the troops doing the construction have repeatedly crossed the Alpha Line during the construction, which began in July. That’s a very provocative action.Though the occupied Golan Heights is still considered Syrian territory by the international community, Israel annexed it in December 1981. The UN Security Council ruled that annexation null and void, but there is no sign Israel is going to transfer the territory back to Syria.Tensions are already soaring between Israel and pretty much the entire region. Israel has conducted at least seven distinct airstrikes against Syrian territory so far this month, including attacks in Homs, Aleppo,Damascus and Idlib.
Report: Netanyahu Aide Discussed Lebanon With Trump and Kushner at Mar-a-Lago - Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer, a close aide of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, held talks with President-elect Donald Trump and Jared Kushner at Mar-a-Lago this week, The Washington Postreported on Wednesday.The report, which cited unnamed Israeli officials, said Dermer’s message was that Israel was looking to give Trump an early foreign policy win by reaching a ceasefire by January. However, Israel’s conditions for a ceasefire include demands that are a non-starter for Hezbollah and the Lebanese government.“There is an understanding that Israel would gift something to Trump … that in January, there will be an understanding about Lebanon,” an Israeli official told the Post. Another Israeli official said that there were also plans in place to ramp up Israeli ground operations in Lebanon if a deal isn’t reached.The inclusion of Kushner in the talks with Dermer and Trump signals he may have a role in the incoming administration, even though reports have said he ruled out the idea. The Post report said that Kushner could play an advisory role if there are negotiations to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.When Israel escalated its war in Lebanon in September, Kushner expressed strong support for the offensive, calling for Israel to “finish the job.”“September 27th is the most important day in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords breakthrough,” Kushner wrote on X, referring to the day Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. “Anyone who has been calling for a ceasefire in the North is wrong. There is no going back for Israel. They cannot afford now to not finish the job and completely dismantle the arsenal that has been aimed at them. They will never get another chance.”
Sanders Plans Vote on Resolutions Blocking US Arms Sales to Israel -U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders announced Wednesday his intention to bring a floor vote on resolutions aimed at blocking a series of proposed arms sales to the Israeli government as it wages a war on Palestinians in Gazathat is the subject of an ongoing International Court of Justice genocide case.In September, Sanders (I-Vt.) introduced half a dozen joint resolutions of disapproval—which were backed by Sens. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), and Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii)—to stop an approved $20 billion arms sale package to Israel. Sanders explained at the time that "there is a mountain of documentary evidence demonstrating that these weapons are being used in violation of U.S. and international law."The resolutions could block transfers of U.S. weapons to the far-right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, including joint direct attack munitions (JDAMs), tanks, and artillery shells, which have been linked to indiscriminate and disproportionate Palestinian civilian casualties.Although the Biden administration has repeatedly determined that Israel's use of U.S.-supplied arms does not violate the law, numerousrights groups and legal experts around the world, progressive U.S. lawmakers including Sanders, and some State Department officials have vehemently rejected these findings. Israel's 13-month assault on Gaza has left more than 156,000 Palestinians dead, wounded, or missing. Millions more are suffering starvation, disease, and forced displacement, and much of the embattled coastal enclave has beenreduced to ruins."There is no longer any doubt that Netanyahu's extremist government is in clear violation of U.S. and international law as it wages a barbaric war against the Palestinian people in Gaza," Sanders said Wednesday. "Out of a population of 2.2 million, over 43,000 Palestinians have been killed and 102,000 injured—60% percent of whom are women, children, or elderly people. Israel has destroyed 70% of the housing in Gaza, the civilian infrastructure, the healthcare system, and hundreds of schools. It has bombed every one of Gaza's 12 universities."Sanders continued:As horrific as the last year has been, the current situation is even worse. Today, Israel continues to restrict the flow of food and medicine to desperate people. Tens of thousands of Palestinians face malnutrition and starvation. The volume of aid reaching Gazans is lower than at any time in the last year. Blocking humanitarian aid violates the Foreign Assistance Act as well as the Geneva Convention.This war has been conducted almost entirely with American weapons and $18 billion in U.S. taxpayer dollars. Israel has droppedU.S.-provided 2,000-pound bombs into crowded neighborhoods,killed hundreds of civilians to take out a handful of Hamas fighters, and made little effort to distinguish between civilians and combatants. These actions are immoral and illegal. "The United States cannot continue to be complicit in this war by supplying more military aid and weaponry to the Netanyahu government," Sanders stressed. "Congress must act to block these arms sales."
"America First" Means Stomping Out Free Speech In The US In Order To Help Israel --There’s a video of Donald Trump going around where he says — while standing in front of an Israeli flag — that in his first week in office he’s going to stomp out “anti-semitic propaganda” on university campuses throughout the United States. As anyone who’s been paying attention knows, this of course means stomping out speech that is critical of Israel and its genocidal atrocities. This clip has sparked controversy on social media, but the funny thing is it’s actually a resurrected older clip from a Trump campaign event back in September. Trump was elected while openly campaigning against free speech, even as his supporters promoted him as a champion of free speech. He campaigned on jailing flag burners as well, for the record. Trump literally standing before an Israeli flag and vowing to kill free speech for the advancement of Israeli information interests makes a lie of everything the so-called “MAGA movement” has ever claimed to stand for and exposes it for the scam it has always been. Trump supporters are already falling all over themselves to justify his warmongering cabinet picks and his vow to crack down on freedom of assembly on college campuses, and he’s not even president yet. These people will put zero pressure on Trump to end wars and fight authoritarianism. They’ll bootlick and make excuses throughout the entire four years, just like they did last time. They’re not anti-establishment populists, they just want to feel like anti-establishment populists. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Trump supporters are George W Bush supporters LARPing as Ron Paul supporters.
US Bombs 'Iranian-Aligned' Targets in Syria -The US military announced on Monday that it launched multiple strikes against “Iranian-aligned” targets in Syria, referring to Shia militias that are allied with Iran.US Central Command (CENTCOM) claimed in a press release that the strikes were launched in retaliation for attacks on its personnel in the region, although there have been no recent reports of any attacks that have damaged US bases or harmed US troops.“Today, US CENTCOM forces conducted strikes against nine targets in two locations associated with Iranian groups in Syria in response to several attacks on US personnel in Syria over the last 24 hours,” CENTCOM said in a press release.The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reportedthat four members of Iran-aligned Shia militias were killed and nine were wounded by airstrikes launched by the “International Coalition,” referring to the US-led coalition in Iraq and Syria. The SOHR’s figures are not confirmed, and their casualty figures often change. The SOHR said the strikes were launched against targets in two areas of eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor province. The US has about 900 troops illegally occupying eastern Syria and backs the Kurdish-led SDF, giving the US control of a significant portion of Syrian territory. The US airstrikes come amid soaring tensions in the region as Iran is vowing it will respond to recent Israeli airstrikes on its territory. Media reports have said Iran was planning to launch an attack from Iraqi territory that would be coordinated with Iraqi Shia militias, although Baghdad denied the claims. The US is vowing to defend Israel from any Iranian attack, which makes US military assets in the region potential targets of Iranian missiles. From October 2023 until February of this year, US bases in Iraq and Syria came under hundreds of rocket and drone attacks due to US support for Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza. After three US troops were killed in an attack on Tower 22, a secretive base in Jordan on the Syrian border, Iran and the Iraqi government pressured the militias to stop, and the attacks have been less frequent since February. Since October 2023, President Biden has ordered multiple rounds of airstrikes against the Shia militias that operate in Iraq and Syria, which include members of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a wing of Iraq’s security forces. Iraq strongly opposed the US bombings of the PMF and called for an end to the US-led coalition. The Biden administration refused to leave and instead negotiated a deal to officially end the mission of the coalition by September 2025 that allows US troops to remain under a different arrangement.
US Bombs 'Iranian-Aligned' Targets in Syria for Second Day -US Central Command announced that its forces launched strikes in Syria for a second day on Tuesday against “Iranian-aligned” targets, referring to Shia militias that operate in the country.CENTCOM said in a press release that its forces “conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage and logistics headquarters facility.” It said the strikes came after a “rocket attack on US personnel at Patrol Base Shaddadi,” referring to a US occupation base in eastern Syria.The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said the US strikes killed at least five members of “Iranian-backed” militias in strikes that targeted their headquarters in eastern Syria’s Deir Ezzor province, but the numbers haven’t been confirmed by any other source.On Monday, CENTCOM said it launched strikes against “nine targets in two locations associated with Iranian groups in Syria,” which SOHR said killed four militia members. CENTCOM said these strikes were in response to attacks on US bases but offered no details. Iranian media reported explosions at US bases in Syria on Monday, but there’s no sign there were any US casualties or damage to the bases. The US airstrikes risk escalation and further attacks as the region is on edge amid anticipation of a potential Iranian attack on Israel in response to Israeli airstrikes that hit Iran on October 26. The US has about 900 troops in eastern Syria as part of an illegal military occupation and backs the Kurdish-led SDF, allowing the US to control a significant portion of Syrian territory. US troops in Syria and the 2,500 US soldiers in Iraq are vulnerable to attack and could be a tripwire for a wider war.
US Bombs Yemen, Says It Targeted 'Numerous' Houthi Weapon Sites - The US launched airstrikes in Yemen on Saturday night, with Pentagon officials claiming “numerous” Houthi weapons sites were targeted.Al Mayadeen reported a total of 10 airstrikes in the capital, Sanaa, and in the Amraan province. The strikes were reported as “US-British aggression,” but it’s unclear if the UK was involved.“The targets contained various advanced conventional weapons used to target military and civilian vessels navigating international waters throughout the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden,” a Pentagon official told ABC News.The US strikes came after the Houthis claimed a missile attack on the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel. The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, also said they shot down another US MQ-9 Reaper drone for the 12th time since November 2023.The US began bombing Yemen in defense of Israeli shipping back in January, and the UK joined several rounds of airstrikes, but the campaign has done nothing to deter the Houthis, who continue to target shipping and launch attacks on Israel. The Houthis began the attacks in response to the US-backed Israeli genocidal war in Gaza and have said they would stop if there were a ceasefire. From 2015-2022, the US supported a Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis, which involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time.
Yemen's Houthis Attack Two US Navy Destroyers in the Red Sea - The Pentagon said Tuesday that the Houthis fired on two US Navy destroyers while they were leaving the Red Sea as the nearly year-long US bombing campaign in Yemen has done nothing to deter the Yemeni group.According to the AP, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said the Houthis fired at least eight drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles, and three anti-ship cruise missiles at the USS Stockdale and the USS Spruance.Ryder said that no US personnel were injured in the attack and that there was no damage to the US vessels. He said the missiles and drones were “successfully engaged.”The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, took credit for the attack. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Sarea said Yemeni forces targeted two US destroyers and an aircraft carrier, but there was no word from the Pentagon about a US aircraft carrier coming under attack.The Houthi attack took place on Monday as the US destroyers were transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait on their way to the Gulf of Aden. The attack came after the US launched a series of airstrikes that the Pentagon claimed targeted Houthi weapons sites in Yemen.The US began bombing Yemen in defense of Israeli shipping back in January, but the Houthis have only escalated their attacks. The Houthis started their campaign against Israeli shipping in response to the US-backed Israeli genocidal war in Gaza and have said they would stop if there were a ceasefire.From 2015-2022, the US supported a Saudi/UAE war against the Houthis, which involved heavy airstrikes and a blockade, and the Houthis only became a more capable fighting force during that time.According to the UN, the war killed at least 377,000 people, with more than half dying of starvation and disease caused by the siege. A ceasefire between the Houthis and Saudis has held relatively well since April 2022, but new US sanctions are blocking the implementation of a lasting peace deal.
Iran Strongly Denies US Claims It Was Involved in Plot To Kill Trump - Iran’s Foreign Ministry has strongly denied US claims that Iran was involved in an alleged plot to kill President-elect Donald Trump, dismissing the charge as a way to “complicate matters” between the US and Iran. On Friday, the US Justice Department announced charges over the alleged plot, claiming that Iranian officials asked an Afghan national who currently resides in Tehran to surveil and ultimately assassinate Trump.“Who can in their right mind believe that a supposed assassin SITS IN IRAN and talks online to the FBI?!” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote on X.Araghci said that Iran respects the choice the American people made in the presidential election. “The American people have made their decision. And Iran respects their right to elect the President of their choice. The path forward is also a choice. It begins with respect,” he said.Araghchi also reiterated that Iran doesn’t seek nuclear weapons and signaled Iran is willing to talk with the US about its nuclear program. “Iran is NOT after nuclear weapons, period. This is a policy based on Islamic teachings and our security calculations. Confidence-building is needed from both sides. It is not a one-way street,” he said.Also on Saturday, Javad Zarif, Iran’s vice president for strategic affairs,called on Trump not to continue the “maximum pressure” policy against Iran. “Trump must show that he is not following the wrong policies of the past,” said Zarif, a veteran diplomat who served as Iran’s foreign minister during Trump’s previous time in office.The previous Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” policy against Iran involved withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal, imposing crippling economic sanctions, and assassinating Iranian Quds Force Commander Gen. Qasem Soleimani. Republicans have accused President Biden of being soft on Iran, but he has essentially followed the same policies. The problem for the US is that Iran found oil markets in Asia that aren’t afraid of US sanctions, a result of the US sanctioning so many different countries. The Wall Street Journal reported that the next Trump administration is expected to “renew” the maximum pressure on Iran. Brian Hook, who oversaw Iran policy in the first Trump administration, is reportedly in charge of the transition for the State Department.
Former Abu Ghraib detainees win $42m verdict against defense contractor -Former detainees of the notorious Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq won Tuesday a $42 million verdict in a civil trial in Virginia against a defense contractor that was accused of assisting the U.S. military in abusing prisoners held at the site in the early 2000s. The verdict against CACI Premier Technology, which is based in Reston, Va., comes after a previous trial in April resulted in a hung jury. A second trial began in late October at the U.S. District Court in Alexandria. It also comes after years of legal delays before the first trial was ever heard. The plaintiffs first filed the case in 2008. The jury on Tuesday awarded the plaintiffs — Suhail Al Shimari, Salah Al-Ejaili and Asa’ad Al-Zubae — $3 million each on compensatory damages and $11 million each in punitive damages. The plaintiffs had described physical torture and abuse at the Abu Ghraib prison, also called the Baghdad Central Confinement Facility, which shut down in 2014. The worst abuses allegedly occurred between October and December 2003, just months after the U.S. first invaded Iraq as part of the global war on terrorism. Abu Ghraib was a facility run by the military police as the U.S. looked to track down and interrogate suspects over alleged links to terrorist groups, including al-Qaeda. In 2004, Abu Ghraib was the center of controversy after photos leaked of the alleged abuse, and the U.S. military later determined mistreatment occurred at the site. Eleven U.S. military officers were convicted and court-martialed over their involvement. In the Virginia civil trial, the plaintiffs sought to tie CACI to the abuse. The defense contractor had employed civilian interrogators at the time, and lawyers argued that they were responsible for softening up the detainees for the military. Al-Zubae testified over the spring that he suffers from mental and physical scars from his time at the prison, where he says he was deprived of clothing and blankets, attacked by combat dogs and threatened with rape. Prison guards also threatened his family, he said. Other allegations of abuse include detainees being beaten with brooms, forced to pile on top of each other while naked and threats with 9mm pistols. CACI had argued that military police acted of their own accord and there was no evidence tying the contractors to the abuse.
The Face At The Front Desk Changes, The Corporation Remains The Same - Caitlin Johnstone- Obama continued and expanded Bush’s most evil policies. Trump continued and expanded Obama’s most evil policies. Biden continued and expanded Trump’s most evil policies. Now Trump is preparing to keep the streak going. The face at the front desk changes, but the corporation stays the same.Trump’s insanely pro-Israel cabinet of bloodthirsty Iran hawks suggests that Trump is going to expand the evils of the Biden administration in the middle east. This is a great example of the point I often make that the empire uses Democrats and Republicans the way a boxer uses the jab-cross combo to set up knockout blows.Democrats and Republicans are different from one another, not in the ways they claim to be different, but in the same way the jab and the cross are used differently in boxing. The jab, thrown with the left hand for an orthodox fighter, is used as a range-finding weapon which can stun or blind the opponent to open them up for a crushing power blow from the right hand. That power blow is called a cross, which is often set up by the jab in the classic “one-two” combination you learn on day one in boxing.The two parties are not the same, but they are used in conjunction with one another toward the same end, and, most importantly, they are both being used by the same boxer to punch you right in the fucking face. You’ll hear people try to argue that Democrats are better because it sometimes hurts less when they’re in office, but that’s exactly the same as saying it’s a good boxing strategy to let your opponent jab you in the face because it hurts less than the cross. You can’t understand boxing if you see your opponent’s fists as two opposing forces and think you can side with one against the other. You can’t understand US politics in that way for the exact same reason. Any decent boxer will tell you they’d rather fight an opponent with a powerful cross than a masterful jab, because an opponent with a great jab will stifle your offense while allowing their offense to be much more effective — including their cross. The two-armed monster of the US oligarchy will keep using both fists to punch you in the face until you stop staring at its hands and trying to calculate which one you’d rather be smashed by, and start focusing on knocking that motherfucker’s head off.
After tumultuous campaign, Biden and Trump chat for 2 hours -President Joe Biden welcomed President-elect Donald Trump back to the White House on Wednesday in a meeting between bitter rivals that was extraordinary precisely for how ordinary it all seemed. Stiffly seated next to each other in oversized chairs in the Oval Office, the two smiled for the cameras and quietly joked among themselves. They exchanged a handshake and warm pleasantries, with Biden congratulating Trump on his electoral victory and Trump complimenting Biden for initiating a smooth transition of power. And as Trump contemplated his return to the building that he’d left in disgrace four years ago, only to mount a stunning comeback that’s set to return him to power, he chose the high road — at least for now. “Politics is tough, and in many cases it’s not a nice world,” he said. “But it is a nice world today.” For the brief moment made available to reporters, the Oval Office meeting was the start of the peaceful transfer of power that Trump denied Biden four years ago. The scene was jarringly surreal in the aftermath of a vicious campaign that both parties cast as critical to the survival of the United States, and perhaps for no one more than Biden, who had warned for years that Trump represented a threat to the very soul of the nation — and a particularly offensive figure to his own institutional sensibilities. Biden made Trump’s authoritarian instincts and efforts to overturn the 2020 election the centerpiece of his reelection campaign. Trump, in turn, spent his own run mocking Biden’s mental acuity and threatening repeatedly to punish his political opponents. The last time the two had an extended back and forth, it was during the June debate that effectively doomed Biden’s bid and brought his lengthy political career to an abrupt end. “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump said on that stage, adopting a pitying attitude toward Biden as the president struggled to make a coherent argument. But reunited a week after an election that delivered Trump the White House in resounding fashion, the two managed a cordial — if somewhat awkward — photo op in front of a roaring fire. Biden and Trump then held a private discussion that ran nearly two hours, eventually drawing in chief of staff Jeff Zients and Susie Wiles, Trump’s campaign manager and incoming chief of staff. First lady Jill Biden also popped in, the White House said, congratulating Trump and delivering a letter intended for Melania Trump, who had declined to make the trip. The White House offered few immediate details on how Trump and Biden filled their time behind closed doors, though press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said they discussed a pair of immediate priorities in keeping the government funded and managing the handoff between the current administration and Trump’s incoming team. Biden allies ahead of the meeting said they also expected the president to touch on foreign affairs, where aides harbor deep worries about how Trump will upend diplomatic relations amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Trump has opposed continuing aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russia, vowing instead to work with Russian President Vladimir Putin to broker a peace deal. Officials also expect him to pursue a far more permissive approach toward Israel and its offensive in Gaza, potentially worsening an already catastrophic humanitarian situation. But neither Biden nor Trump reemerged when the meeting ended, with Trump slipping past the hundreds of reporters assembled on the White House driveway and off the premises. “It was very cordial, very gracious,” Jean-Pierre told reporters in the briefing room. “The president wants you all to know that Trump was gracious, came with a detailed set of questions.” The approach fit with Biden’s broader emphasis on conducting a professional transition, viewing it as critical to reinforcing Americans’ trust in elections and the strength of the nation’s institutions.
When The Show Is Over, The Actors Hold Hands And Take A Bow -- President Biden and President Elect Trump met at the White House on Wednesday and shook hands and exchanged pleasantries after an emotionally exhausting presidential race in which each side accused the other of presenting an immediate existential threat to the country. This is it. This is the real story. This image, right here. Ignore all the fake drama. Forget all the campaign rhetoric and kayfabe conflict. This is what’s real. This is what deserves your attention. They do not hate each other. They do not see one another as an existential threat to the nation. They are not enemies. They’re barely even opponents. When the show is over they hug and kiss like boxers after weeks of phony trash talk made solely to sell pay-per-views. One may say his opponent is the next Hitler, coming to end democracy and take everyone’s votes and destroy the country. The other may say his opponent is a communist dictator, come to do the same. But when the play is over the performers hold hands and bow, and then they go out and have a drink together. They each pretend to be fighting against each other in defense of you and your interests, when in reality they’re on the same side, fighting against you, in defense of the interests of oligarchy and empire. You can see it right there. They’re not hiding it anymore. They don’t have to. It was all a show, and they’re openly admitting it. A friendly match, like two rich ladies playing tennis at the Hamptons. They can show it openly because they know most of you won’t pay attention to what you are seeing, or if you do you’ll forget all about it and get swept up in the heat of the next election cycle. There’s so much messaging reinforcing the illusory partisan divide that these tacit little admissions tend to go completely overlooked. Don’t get me wrong, the depravity of Trump himself is not illusory. Real people are going to suffer and die under his administration, just as real people suffered and died under Biden’s. But they themselves know they have nothing to fear. They and the powers they serve will go completely untouched by the imperial murder machine. They will die of old age surrounded by wealth and luxury, completely free from any consequences for their actions. It was all a sham. Always is. The elections are fake and the game is rigged. The empire will march on completely uninterrupted and entirely unchanged, served by one fraudulent president after the next until its eventual collapse.
Pentagon fails 7th audit in a row but says progress made - The Pentagon on Friday failed its seventh audit in a row, with the nation’s largest government agency still unable to fully account for its more than $824 billion budget, though officials stress they are making good progress toward a clean audit in 2028. The Department of Defense technically earned a disclaimer of opinion, meaning it failed to provide sufficient information to auditors to form an accurate opinion. The goal is to earn an unmodified audit opinion, or a clean audit that says the financial statements are accurate. A qualified opinion says there are omissions and concerns but the finances are generally reliable. Under Secretary of Defense Comptroller and Chief Financial Officer Michael McCord said that despite the disclaimer of opinion, which he expected, the Defense Department “has turned a corner in its understanding of the depth and breadth of its challenges.” “Momentum is on our side, and throughout the Department there is strong commitment—and belief in our ability—to achieve an unmodified audit opinion,” he said in a statement. The Defense Department’s report card as a whole is made up of 28 entities operating under the Pentagon that conducted independent audits. Of those, nine received an unmodified audit opinion, one received a qualified opinion, 15 received disclaimers and three opinions remain pending. The Pentagon expects the final number of clean or qualified audits to be roughly around what it was last year. The Pentagon has never passed an audit since the agency became legally obligated to carry them out in 2018. A major challenge in auditing remains a full accounting of the sheer number of systems the Defense Department employs. The Pentagon said it is firmly committed to achieving a clean audit by 2028, as mandated by the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act. At a Friday briefing with reporters, McCord explained the number of clean audits indicated progress and disputed the characterization that the Pentagon had failed another audit.
It’s not like EU-US relations can get any worse under Trump, says former Commission chief Juncker – Former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, whose term in Brussels coincided with Donald Trump’s first administration in the U.S., said the transatlantic relationship is already at a nadir.“I can’t really answer that question because I can’t imagine it getting any worse,” Juncker said to laughter at an event in Brussels on Tuesday, in response to a query about whether EU-U.S. ties were likely to get worse during Trump’s upcoming second term.“But it’s going to be the case that we have to get comfortable with the idea that the election has been won. The Americans have their president,” he added. U.S. presidents typically become more friendly to Europe in their second terms, Juncker said — but noted he wasn’t sure that would happen with Trump.“Whether that will be the case with Trump is impossible to say. I doubt that he will be inspired by the second life path of his predecessors,” Juncker said.Juncker was president of the Commission from 2014 to 2019, overlapping with Trump, who entered the White House in 2017. The former Commission chief said he constantly fought Trump over trade policies such as the U.S.’s hefty tariffs on imported steel and aluminum during his presidency.At times, Trump said Juncker was “nasty,” “a brutal killer” and a “tough, tough cookie.” Other times, Trump appeared to have a soft spot for the former Berlaymont boss, calling him “a very good man” and complimenting him on being a “great businessman.”
Kashkari: Trump tariffs could reheat inflation if countries retaliate --Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said Sunday that President-elect Donald Trump's tariff proposals could worsen long-term inflation if global trade partners were to strike back.One-time tariffs, Kashkari said on CBS' "Face the Nation,""shouldn't have an effect long run on inflation.""The challenge becomes, if there's a tit for tat and it's one country imposing tariffs and then responses and it's escalating. That's where it becomes more concerning, and, frankly, a lot more uncertain," Kashkari said.During his first term, Trump essentially sparked a trade warwith China when he imposed a series of import taxes on Chinese goods, which triggered the country to retaliate with its own set of tariffs on the U.S.One of Trump's primary economic proposals for his second term is to impose universal tariffs on all imports from all countries — with a specifically targeted 60% rate on China.Economists, Wall Street analysts and industry leaders have repeatedly expressed concerns over the inflationary impact of that hardline trade approach, especially since inflation has just begun to cool from its pandemic-era peaks."We've made a lot of progress in bringing inflation down," Kashkari said. "I mean, I don't want to declare victory yet. We need to finish the job, but we're on a good path right now."The Fed on Thursday passed its second consecutive interest rate cut, continuing its effort to loosen monetary policy as inflation approaches the central bank's 2% target. Kashkari said he expects another cut to come in December, but that will depend on "what the data looks like" at that time.As for Trump's other major policy proposals like a sweepingimmigrant deportation plan, Kashkari noted that the inflation threat is still unclear and so the Fed is still taking a "wait and see" approach before adjusting its policy.Trump and his backers like billionaire Tesla CEO Elon Muskhave also been outspoken about their desire to give the president input on Fed policy decisions. The central bank views its political independence as a core feature that allows it to shape monetary policy exclusively based on the health of the U.S. economy, not election incentives.But Kashkari said he is not concerned about politics permeating Fed decisions."I'm confident that we will continue to focus on our economic jobs," he said. "That's what should be dictating what we're doing and that is what's dictating what we're doing."
'Everyone is calling': Trump's tariff threats send U.S. companies scrambling for lobbyists and loopholes In the days since President-elect Donald Trump won thepresidential race, Nicole Bivens Collinson's phone has barely stopped ringing. Collinson, who helps lead the international trade and government relations division at the lobbying firm Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, said she is fielding "dozens and dozens and dozens" of calls from anxious U.S. companies looking to protect themselves from Trump's hardline tariff plans by finding loopholes and exemptions. "Absolutely everyone is calling," Collinson told CNBC. "It is nonstop." Over the course of the 2024 campaign, Trump made universal tariffs a core tenet of his economic platform, floating a 20% tax on all imports from all countries with a specifically harsh 60% rate for Chinese goods.That hyper-protectionist trade approach sent chills up the spines of economists, Wall Street analysts and industry leaders who warned that across-the-board tariffs could make production — and in turn, consumer prices — more expensive, just as they were recovering from pandemic-era inflation spikes. "The threat of tariffs has alarmed retailers and a wide range of other U.S. businesses," David French, senior vice president of government relations at the National Retail Federation, told CNBC. "Our members have been working on contingency plans since President Trump secured the nomination." Ron Sorini, a principal at the lobbying firm Sorini, Samet & Associates, echoed that sentiment, noting that he takes at least two to three calls a day to field companies' concerns about the proposed tariff ramp-up, especially in China."[Companies] question where they should go, and how do they get the components out [of China]? How do they get the whole supply chain out?" Sorini said.When Trump unleashed his first set of China tariffs in 2018, securing an exemption became a golden ticket in corporate America, a way to safeguard a company's China-based supply chains rather than paying the hefty price of relocation.And to obtain that golden ticket, it paid to know the right people.A 2021 research study found that applications for Trump's first-term tariff exemptions were more likely to be approved when they came from lobbying firms whose employees had made political contributions to the Republican Party.Now, with Trump set to retake the White House in a matter of weeks, tariff escalation is becoming a more likely reality.And in corporate America, the race is on to find the right lobbyists to help companies rub shoulders with the right people, to give them an advantage in securing tariff loopholes. "Firms are prepared," SUNY Buffalo finance professor Veljko Fotak, one of the authors of the 2021 study, told CNBC. "The real winners of this process are going to be the lawyers and lobbyists."What tariffs will look like in the next Trump administration, and whether exemptions will be available at all, are both unknown."Until that clarity comes, businesses will have to plan for a variety of scenarios," Tiffany Smith, vice president of global trade policy at the National Foreign Trade Council, told CNBC.
ABN Amro CFO says potential U.S. tariffs are a concern - ABN Amro's CFO Ferdinand Vaandrager discusses the Dutch bank's third-quarter earnings, potential U.S. tariffs and European banking mergers and acquisitions.
Trump tariff threats sending shock waves around the world - Governments around the world are in discussions with their economic and financial institutions as to what will be the impact of the Trump presidency on their economies if he goes ahead with the imposition of sweeping tariffs as a central component of his reactionary nationalist agenda. There have been warnings that the US tariff hikes could rival those of the infamous Smoot-Hawley measures of the 1930s, which led to a global trade war and played a significant role in creating the conditions for World War II. Nowhere will the discussions be more intense than in Chinese ruling and administrative circles. Trump has threatened to impose a 60 percent tariff on all Chinese exports to the US. There have been warnings that such measures could lead to a cut in the growth rate in the Chinese economy, already at its lowest level in more than three decades, of anywhere between 1.75 and 2.5 percentage points. When Trump began imposing tariffs against China during his first presidency, they reflected a somewhat scatter gun approach, but since then, during the Biden administration, the economic warfare has become much more intense. Biden largely retained the Trump measures and significantly expanded the US offensive through the series of bans, introduced on “national security” grounds, to deny access to the most highly developed computer chips and chip-making technology. Access to this technology is crucial for the central economic strategy of the Xi Jinping government to develop “high quality new productive forces.” The assessment by the rabid anti-China economic nationalists surrounding Trump, such as the trade representative in his first administration, Robert Lighthizer, who may return to that position, is that with the slowing of its economy in recent years and its growing dependence on exports, China is more vulnerable. The latest trade data give sustenance to this view. The Chinese trade balance, the difference between the value of its exports and imports, is on track to reach $1 trillion this year. In the first 10 months of the year the trade balance surged to $785 billion, the highest on record and up 16 percent from the corresponding period in 2023. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, noted: “With Chinese export prices still falling, export volume growth was enormous. The overall story is of an economy that is again growing off exports.” During the first Trump administration, China produced 12 percent of global exports. That figure has risen to 17 percent, according to an estimate by the global research firm TS Lombard. Under conditions where the domestic economy has been weakening, due to the ongoing problems in the real estate and construction sector, stagnant consumer demand, deflationary pressures and falling industrial profits, exports have become ever more crucial to maintain economic growth at the target level of “about 5 percent.” According to Eswar Prasad of Cornell University, one-time head of the China division of the International Monetary Fund, in remarks cited in a recent New York Times article: “The balance of power has certainly shifted in favour of the United States. The Chinese economy is not quite on the ropes, but it has been struggling for quite a while.” China is not without the means of retaliation. It could cut imports of American agricultural imports—it has already sought to obtain soybeans from suppliers in Brazil and Argentina—and could restrict its exports of critical minerals needed for high-tech industry components. According to Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, whose remarks were also cited by the Times: “China has more leverage than the first time around. It has a range of tools it can mobilise to push back and put some hurt on the US economy if it believes Trump is pursuing outright economic war.” Concerns are being felt not only in China but throughout Asia, including in countries that are US allies. The Japanese automaker Honda has warned that the Trump threat to impose tariffs on cars from Mexico, possibly as high as 100 percent, could have an “extremely big impact” on its operations. Countries that have a large trade surplus with the US are wondering if they will be in the firing line. In 2023 South Korea’s trade surplus with the US reached a record $44.4 billion, with car exports making up 30 percent of all shipments to the US. Taiwan’s exports to the US reached a record high of $24.6 billion in the first quarter of this year, an increase of 57.9 percent over the same period last year. The trade surplus of Vietnam with the US stood at $90 billion for the first nine months of this year. It might be thought that Taiwan would be exempt from trade war measures because of its export of computer chips to the US, but Trump has accused Taiwanese companies of “stealing” the US chip industry. Some companies have moved to shift some of their operations to the US in order to escape the effect of US tariffs, but it seems even then they can be a target. Trump is on record as saying that the Taiwanese firm TSMC, which has received billions in subsidies after making investments in the US, should “go back to their own country.”
Exclusive: Harold Hamm's Top Oil, Gas Goals After Trump Victory | Hart Energy --When Harold Hamm talks U.S. energy, President-elect Donald Trump listens. Hamm, the founder and executive chairman of privately-held Continental Resources, ran point on drumming up oil and gas industry support and funding for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. In an exclusive interview with Hart Energy, Hamm refused to take any credit for Trump’s election victory last week—but acknowledged the role he played in getting the U.S. energy industry to rally behind the former president. “Obviously it’s no secret that I helped gather the industry up, oil and gas producers and the entire industry,” Hamm said. “They got really broad coverage about the meeting at Mar-a-Lago with the president—[I] had dinner with him with the entire group.” But after Trump’s resounding victory at the ballot boxes last week—and with both houses of Congress potentially back under Republican control—Hamm expects to see results for the U.S. energy industry. From a “laundry list” of hundreds of items that need to be done, or undone, a handful stick out to Hamm.Impediments put in place by the Biden administration to slow or halt oil and gas leasing activity on federal lands or in the Gulf of Mexico should be removed, Hamm said.“The mineral wealth of the U.S. government is tremendous, but you have to develop that,” he said. “Certainly, Trump will do that. Our economy needs it, federal government needs it.”The Biden administration eventually resumed auctioning drilling leases on federal lands in 2022—when costs for fuel and power were skyrocketing—but with smaller acreage packages offered and higher royalties for producers.Offshore leasing has been limited to the central and western Gulf of Mexico in favor of the Biden administration’s lofty goal of expanding offshore wind power generation.But it’s not just upstream. The permitting process needs to be simplified and streamlined to build out pipelines, downstream facilities or even infrastructure like new housing, Hamm said.“Permitting affects everything,” he said. “You’ve got to turn that loose, and you just need some new people to do it.”The Biden administration also drew ire from the U.S. oil and gas industry earlier this year for “pausing” the issuance of LNG export licenses to non-free trade agreement countries.The administration said the pause would allow time for a study analyzing the impacts of U.S. LNG exports on the climate, the economy and national security.Industry executives and analysts say the pause has negatively impacted the nation’s reputation as a reliable exporter—at a time when countries like Qatar and Australia are actively expanding global LNG market share.Many oil and gas executives have lobbied for Trump to un-pause the LNG pause, Hamm included.“In the U.S. we certainly got a whole lot of natural gas,” Hamm said.Hamm also pushed back on the outgoing administration using federal agencies to stymie the oil and gas industry’s day-to-day business.The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) intervened in several large-scale upstream M&A transactions, including Exxon Mobil’s $60 billion acquisition of Permian Basin giant Pioneer Natural Resources, Chevron’s $55 billion acquisition ofHess Corp. and the merger between gas producers Chesapeake Energy andSouthwestern Energy.The FTC barred Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield and Hess CEO John Hess from serving on the Exxon and Chevron boards, respectively, alleging the executives worked to collude with the OPEC cartel to fix global commodity prices.The Biden administration also frequently tapped the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for matters related to power plant pollution, methane emissions from upstream production and vehicle tailpipe emissions standards.“They used every single agency as much as they could to deter the industry, delay the industry,” Hamm said, “and basically live up to their promise to get us off fossil fuels going forward.”
Trump Team To Nuke EV Tax Credit As Musk's Price-War Endgame Looms -The final chapter of the electric vehicle price war, sparked by Tesla's Elon Musk, hinges on President-elect Donald Trump's plan to eliminate the $7,500 consumer tax credit. Sources with direct knowledge told Reuters that the Trump team has discussed ending the EV tax credit as part of broader tax reform legislation.Sources indicated that Tesla - the largest EV automaker in the US and the only one not reliant on EV credits for survival - told the Trump transition committee that it fully supports the federal government ending the subsidy.Here's more from Reuters:Repealing the subsidy, which has been a signature measure of President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), is being discussed in meetings by an energy-policy transition team led by billionaire oilman Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, the two sources said.The group has had several meetings since Trump's Nov. 5 election victory, including some at his Florida Mar-a-Lago club, where Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has also spent considerable time since the election. In mid-July, Trump stated at a campaign rally that he would "end the Electric Vehicle Mandate on Day One — thereby saving the US auto industry from complete obliteration, and saving US customers thousands of dollars per car." On X, around that time, Musk explained to the Whole Mars Catalog why repealing the tax credit would only benefit Tesla: In October, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing all automotive brands besides Tesla, penned a letter expressing to lawmakers in Congress how crucial the EV tax credit is in "cementing the US as a global leader in the future of automotive technology and manufacturing." In the markets, Rivian shares tumbled by 10% in the early afternoon, while Tesla shares fell by 3.5%.
Trump 2.0 will alter global climate fighting efforts. Will others step up? (AP) — Global efforts to fight climate change stumbled but survived the last time Donald Trump was elected president and withdrew the United States from an international climate agreement. Other countries, states, cities and businesses picked up some of the slack.But numerous experts worry that a second Trump term will be more damaging, with the United States withdrawing even further from climate efforts in a way that could cripple future presidents’ efforts. With Trump, who has dismissed climate change, in charge of the world’s leading economy, those experts fear other countries — especially top polluting nation China — could use it as an excuse to ease off their own efforts to curb carbon emissions.“There’s no hope of reaching a safe climate without substantive action from the United States, from China, from Europe,” said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson, who chairs the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists that tracks countries’ carbon dioxide emissions, which have been rising globally. He said he’s certain the world is shooting past the internationally accepted threshold of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. That’sjust a couple tenths of a degree away. Others believe the goal is alive.Trump’s reelection comes as the world is on track to set yet another record hot year, and has been lurching from drought to hurricane to flood to wildfire.On Wednesday, Tubiana, the former French official who helped forge the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement that Trump pulled out of, called the election result a setback for global climate action. But she added: “The Paris Agreement has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s policy.”The United Nations’ annual climate negotiations to follow on the Paris accord start next week in Baku, Azerbaijan. In the months after, all countries including the U.S. must issue national plans showing how they will increase efforts to limit heat-trapping emissions from coal, oil and natural gas.“Baku will be the earliest test of the resilience of the global climate regime,” said Asia Society Policy Institute Director Li Shuo, who foresees the European Union and China stepping up to fill the U.S. leadership void, especially economically. “It should also unite other countries.”It sort of did that in 2017, when Trump announced that the U.S. would abandon the Paris climate agreement.“Not a single country followed the U.S. out the door,” said Alden Meyer, a longtime climate negotiations analyst with the European think tank E3G. “We saw the birth and launch of the We Are Still In movement of subnational actors, investors, businesses, governors, mayors and others here in the U.S.”Meyer and others said a more serious step than withdrawing from Paris is possible. That would be pulling out of an underlying treaty from 1992 that set curbing climate change and saving biodiversity as part of global environmental goals for the 21st century, as well as withdrawing from the United Nations climate change fighting system that fosters negotiations, records emissions and what’s being done about them.Project 2025, a conservative post-election blueprint that the Trump campaign distanced itself from but was written by his allies, called for withdrawing from both that U.N. framework and the Paris Agreement.
Exxon CEO presses Trump to stay in Paris climate agreement -- Exxon CEO Darren Woods urged President-elect Trump to stay in the Paris climate agreement as the oil and gas industry prepares for the new administration. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Woods said the U.S. shouldn’t pull out of the agreement, an international pledge that seeks to mitigate the effects of climate change.Woods argued an U.S. exit from the 2015 agreement, which Trump has proposed he would do, would cause confusion around the world for climate efforts. The Trump administration first announced it would leave the accords in 2017.Exxon has publicly supported the Paris Agreement since 2015, the Journal noted.In 2020, the U.S. officially left the Paris climate accord. It was set in motion a year prior by Trump during his first term and was a landmark decision making the U.S. the only country in the world to withdraw from the agreement.Under President Biden, the U.S. rejoined the agreement in 2021.Woods told the Journal that it’s not helpful for businesses to have a “pendulum swing back and forth” as administrations change.“I don’t think the stops and starts are the right thing for business,” he said. “It is extremely inefficient. It creates a lot of uncertainty.”
Republicans win House, delivering Trump a trifecta - Republicans are projected to keep control of the House of Representatives, handing the party total control of Washington with President-elect Trump back in the White House in January. Decision Desk HQ projected the GOP would hold the House by winning its 218th seat on Monday, the number needed for a majority in the lower chamber. The result is a major win for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who skyrocketed up from obscurity to lead the House GOP not only legislatively, but also in a large role in its campaign infrastructure. Republicans saved some of their most vulnerable incumbents, like Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and David Valadao (R-Calif.), while defeating several vulnerable Democratic incumbents. State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), while businessman Rob Bresnahan defeated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.). Those results made up for some GOP losses. Three first-term New York Republicans — Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams — lost their reelection bids, as did Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.). The final House breakdown is uncertain, with ballots still being counted for several races in California. But Republicans are expected to have another slim majority heading into the new Congress. Those exact numbers will matter a lot for Johnson’s political future, for which policies Republicans can enact, and how the lower chamber will function — or not function. Trump gave the Speaker a shoutout in his victory speech from Palm Beach, Fla., in the early hours of Wednesday: “It also looks like we’ll be keeping control of the House of Representatives. And I want to thank Mike Johnson. I think he’s doing a terrific job.” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House GOP Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) also joined Trump at Mar-a-Lago to celebrate his victory, in an indication of the House GOP’s strong commitment to backing the Trump administration. Top House Republicans have been working with Senate Republicans for months on legislative plans that they can swiftly send to Trump in the first 100 days of total Republican control. Those include extending the tax cuts passed in Trump’s first term, boosting border wall funding, repealing climate initiatives and promoting school choice. But there are likely to be plenty of obstacles for Republicans’ ambitious agenda. The last two years of the historically slim House GOP majority was marked by intraparty disputes that, at times, brought legislative activity to a halt. That chaos was headlined by the historic ouster of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.). Uncertainty about Republicans’ margin also raises immediate questions about Johnson’s future. The Speaker has been explicit about his intention to seek the gavel again if Republicans win unified control of government. But he has faced opposition from a few hard-line conservatives and already survived one attempt to remove him earlier this year, led by Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). House Democrats helped halt that attempt. To keep the gavel, Johnson will need to secure a majority vote on the House floor when it convenes on Jan. 3, 2025, requiring near-unanimous Republican support.
John Thune elected Senate majority leader - Republicans elected Sen. John Thune of South Dakota to be the Senate majority leader on Wednesday.Thune defeated Texas Sen. John Cornyn and Sen. Rick Scott of Florida to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell as the GOP caucus leader.Republicans are set to hold the majority in the Senate for the next two years, starting in early January. Democrats currently hold majority control of the chamber.
New GOP Senate Leader Is a Former Lobbyist Who Has Taken Aim at Social Security -- Senate Republicans on Wednesday elected Sen. John Thune of South Dakota—a former corporate lobbyist and close ally of Sen. Mitch McConnell—as the leader of their conference for the upcoming term, when the GOP will have a 53-seat majority.Republican lawmakers chose Thune over Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Rick Scott (R-Fla.), who was favored by allies of President-elect Donald Trump."Senators have received angry phone calls from constituents demanding to know how their representatives plan to vote, following MAGA world's embrace of Scott," The Washington Postreported. The leadership election was conducted via secret ballot.In a statement Wednesday, Thune said he is "extremely honored to have earned the support" of the Senate GOP conference and stressed that "this Republican team is united behind President Trump's agenda.""Our work starts today," Thune added. Before winning election to the Senate in 2004, Thune worked as a lobbyist for several sectors including the railroad industry. The Leverreported last year that as part of his lobbying work for the Dakota, Minnesota, and Eastern (DM&E) Railroad, Thune "helped the company procure a $230 million loan from the Federal Railroad Administration.""In 2015, Thune reprised his advocacy for the rail industry, leading aneffort to repeal an Obama administration regulation requiring improved, electronic braking systems on some hazmat trains," the outlet added. "The following year, he received the first-ever 'Railroad Achievement Award' presented by the Association of American Railroads, the industry's main lobbying group."Thune is also "one of the biggest recipients of oil and gas money in Congress," the youth-led Sunrise Movementnoted Wednesday following his election as leader of the incoming GOP Senate.Over the course of his Senate career, Thune has received more than $1.16 million in campaign donations from the fossil fuel industry,according to the campaign finance watchdog OpenSecrets.Thune's top contributor between 2019 and 2024 was the AmericanIsrael Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the right-wing pro-Israel lobbying group.
Here are the GOP’s top legislative priorities under Trump == Hill Republicans have ambitious legislative plans for the first months of total GOP control of government under President-elect Trump, with a sweeping tax package at the top of the to-do list. While Republicans are not yet officially projected to win enough seats to secure the House, it looks likely that they will keep a slim majority. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has been working with Senate Republican leaders and Trump for months on items they can quickly push through Congress in the first 100 days under Trump. Both Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), two of the contenders to replace Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), have been involved in the discussions. The goal is to avoid the disorganization and clashes that emerged despite a GOP trifecta when Trump took office in 2017 and thwarted his legislative agenda. Hard-line conservatives in the House Freedom Caucus, for instance, helped derail Trump’s early attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act. This time, Republicans believe they are more prepared to execute. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said in a recent letter to colleagues that while Trump can make many changes through executive action, Republicans hope to “lock in” the policies. The GOP leaders will aim to pass much of their agenda through the Senate’s budget reconciliation process, a special budgetary rule that can fast-track legislation and bypass the threat of a Democratic filibuster. Johnson and other GOP leaders have talked in speeches and on the campaign trail about what they hope to tackle in the first-100-days agenda. Some of the plans are sure to prompt intraparty policy clashes. Here are some of Republicans’ top legislative priorities under a new Trump administration.
- Extend Trump tax cuts. Key parts of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), Trump’s signature legislative achievement from his first term, are set to expire at the end of 2025. Republicans hope to not only make the cuts permanent, but use the legislation to make other changes.In a speech to the America First Policy Institute in September, Johnson said Republicans planned to restore immediate expensing for research and development costs; ensure a strong Foreign Derived Intangible Income incentive to “encourage U.S. ownership of intellectual property”; and restore the 100 percent expensing provision that began to phase out after 2022.. Some of the tax policy details, however, will be divisive in the House GOP. Republicans from high-tax states have long wanted to repeal the $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions that Trump signed into law with the TCJA, but other Republicans have championed it.Trump in September signaled openness to a reversal on the SALT deduction cap, saying he would “get SALT back, lower your taxes, and so much more.”
- Fund border security measures and wall. - “There is much President Trump can do through executive action to provide immediate relief. He can secure the border by ending catch and release, reinstating Remain in Mexico and stopping the current flagrant abuses of the asylum and parole programs,” Scalise said. But congressional Republicans will have a major role in funding Trump’s programs. “We will surge resources to the southern border to build the Trump Border Wall, acquire new detection technologies, bolster our Border Patrol, and stop the flow of illegal immigration,” Scalise said. Johnson also touched on addressing immigration through the tax code in his speech to the America First Policy Institute, but did not get into details.
- Repeal parts of Inflation Reduction Act. GOP leaders have forecast their plans to repeal parts of President Biden’s signature Inflation Reduction Act, particularly funds for climate programs. In the letter to colleagues, Scalise said Republicans plan to repeal “harmful slush funds and policies Democrats jammed through in their so-called ‘Inflation Reduction Act.’” And Johnson said in his America First Policy Institute speech that Republicans would “roll back the Green New Deal regulations and put America back in a place of American energy dominance.” But Republicans are not aiming to completely repeal the law. Johnson told CNBC in September that he would take a “scalpel, and not a sledgehammer,” to Biden’s clean energy and economic package, saying there are “a few provisions in there that have helped overall.”
- Expand school choice and take on universities. House Republicans are signaling they will pass measures supportive of school choice measures — the practice of allowing students and families to use public funds for private or alternative school programs.“We can reform our education system by maximizing school choice for parents and holding woke university administrators accountable,” Johnson said in his America First Policy Institute speech.One bill that aimed to expand school choice, the Educational Choice for Children Act, advanced out of the House Ways and Means Committee earlier this year. That legislation, according to the office of bill sponsor Rep. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), would “provide a charitable donation incentive for individuals and businesses to fund scholarship awards for students which would cover expenses related to K-12 public and private education.”Scalise also referenced school choice in his letter, saying Republicans will pass measures “prioritizing parents and choice, not Union Bosses, in their children’s education.” Republicans are also not done with their crusade against university administrators, and are aiming to build on the momentum of House GOP conference Chair Elise Stefanik’s (N.Y.) fierce questioning of the presidents of Harvard University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Pennsylvania about their policies on antisemitism last year. House Republicans in September passed the End Woke Higher Education Act, which included a requirement that colleges adopt free speech policies as a condition of receiving Title IV funds, among other measures.Johnson’s office said House Republicans plan to “hold woke and elite universities accountable for out-of-control costs,” and Scalise said Republicans will “[hold] colleges and universities accountable for the wave of virulent antisemitism some have tolerated.”
Elizabeth Warren accuses Donald Trump of violating transition law - Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said on Monday that President elect-Trump “and his transition team are already breaking” a law on presidential transition. “Donald Trump and his transition team are already breaking the law,” Warren said in a post on the social platform X. “I would know because I wrote the law. Incoming presidents are required to prevent conflicts of interest and sign an ethics agreement.”“This is what illegal corruption looks like,” she added.Warren was responding to a report from CNN on Saturday that said a conflict of interest pledge included in the Presidential Transition Act was, in part, keeping multiple transition agreements from being submitted by the president-elect’s team to the Biden administration.The Presidential Transition Act instructs candidates from major parties to join in memorandums of understanding with the current president as well as the General Services Administration (GSA) so staff may get their hands on relevant resources like facilities, documents, executive branch employees and national security information in the period between the election and the inauguration. Those agreements also feature an ethics plan. Last month, Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) raised concerns in a letter to Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance over their campaign’s failure to enter into presidential transition agreements with the federal government. Raskin warned that the delay could have an unfavorable impact on the transfer of power in the upcoming year.“Breaking the precedent set by every other presidential candidate since 2010, you have rejected these resources and refused to commit to a smooth transition,” Raskin wrote.“Your actions depart from well-established norms of the federal government and demonstrate a spectacular disregard for the successful continuation of the essential institutions of American democratic government,” he added.
Trump picks Florida Rep. Michael Waltz as national security adviser - President-elect Trump has chosen Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Fla.) to serve as his national security adviser, tapping the former Green Beret to fill a top White House post, multiple sources confirmed to The Hill.Waltz, 50, has served in Congress since 2019. He has called for Europe to do more to support Ukraine and for the U.S. to be more stringent with its support, aligning with a key foreign policy goal of the president-elect. He has also been a staunch critic of the Biden administration’s 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.The Wall Street Journal first reported on Trump’s choice of Waltz.Waltz had been open about his willingness to serve in the administration and was considered a candidate to lead the Pentagon. The role of national security adviser does not require Senate confirmation.Republicans are expected to have an extremely narrow House majority, and Waltz’s exit to join the administration will further complicate efforts to pass bills at the beginning of Trump’s term. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) has also been tapped for an administration role, leaving two vacant GOP seats. Trump went through multiple national security advisers during his first term. Michael Flynn was in the role for just a few weeks before resigning amid controversy over his conversations with Russia. Others to hold the post included H.R. McMaster, John Bolton and Robert O’Brien. The former president has been quickly assembling a roster of senior staff since winning last week’s election. He has already announced his chief of staff, his “border czar,” and nominees for ambassador to the United Nations and administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency.
Trump taps fierce UN critic Stefanik to serve as envoy to it - President-elect Trump’s nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations sets the stage for one of the organization’s most vocal and combative critics to have a powerful seat at its table. Stefanik, 40, the fourth-ranking House Republican and a devoted Trump loyalist, has little foreign policy experience. But she has built a reputation over the last year as a leading champion of Israel, in part by repeatedly hammering the U.N. for its reproach of the country’s military response to last year’s attacks by Hamas. In September, she accused the organization of being infected by “antisemitic rot.” Her nomination as America’s top envoy to the U.N. sends an early signal that Trump intends to side squarely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a conservative Trump ally who has ignored President Biden’s calls for a regional cease-fire, as the Middle Eastern conflict expands and intensifies. The posting also sends a broader message to the world that Trump’s “America First” approach — which envisions a shrinking role for the United States in world diplomacy and global affairs — is likely to reign supreme in his second term. That strategy is likely to surface most prominently in Ukraine, where Trump has declined to commit more military support as Kyiv continues the years-long battle against Russia’s invading forces. Stefanik called for “devastating action” to defeat Russian President Vladimir Putin early in the war, but voted against a multibillion-dollar aid package to Ukraine earlier this year. In accepting the nomination Monday, Stefanik defended Trump’s shift toward isolationism, suggesting it would nudge America’s allies into taking a more active role in the pursuit of global peace. “America continues to be the beacon of the world,” she said in a statement, “but we expect and must demand that our friends and allies be strong partners in the peace we seek.” Trump’s Republican allies on Capitol Hill quickly hailed the nomination on Monday, praising Stefanik as a “fantastic choice” for the position. “She is extremely qualified for this new role in public service, and the House’s loss will be a huge gain for the Trump Administration and the country. There is nobody better to represent President Trump’s foreign policy and America’s values at the United Nations than Elise Stefanik,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said in a statement. But her promotion to global envoy is sure to ring alarm bells among both traditional conservatives, who still support a muscular defense of NATO and America’s overseas allies, and Democrats, who consider Stefanik to be an unscrupulous political opportunist and a blind sycophant to Trump. “Trump’s pick of Rep. Stefanik is a gift to Vladamir Putin,” said Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), a senior member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “She abandoned Ukrainians in April, and this further signals Donald Trump and MAGA’s retreat from the global stage.” Stefanik’s imminent jump to the administration immediately sparked the race to replace her in GOP leadership, with a handful of GOP lawmakers already announcing their bids. It could also complicate Trump’s ambitious 100-day legislative agenda by cutting into what is already expected to be a slim majority for the House Republicans. . Although Stefanik serves on the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, she has made greater waves from her perch as a senior member of the Education and Workforce Committee, where she was in line for the gavel before jumping into House leadership. But the New York Republican saw her star rise rapidly in December when, during a hearing of the Education committee, she questioned a trio of university presidents about antisemitism on their campuses following Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel — an episode that went viral and prompted two of the three leaders to resign from their posts. Since then, the House GOP conference chair has made combating antisemitism a prime part of her portfolio on Capitol Hill, a posture that has included incisive criticism of the United Nations. In October, for example, the New York Republican appeared to threaten U.S. funding for the U.N. over the Biden administration’s alleged “silence” regarding perceived antisemitism in the organization. The statement was in reaction to the Palestinian Authority eyeing an effort to expel Israel from the United Nations. “Should the Palestinian Authority succeed in their antisemitic pursuit, it would result in a complete reassessment of U.S. funding of the United Nations. American taxpayers have no interest in continuing to fund an organization that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have allowed to rot with antisemitism,” Stefanik wrote. She also took a jab at the United Nations in her May address before the Israeli Knesset, when she became the highest-ranking House member to visit Israel after the Oct. 7 attack. “When the enemy is inside the gates of the United Nations, America must be the one to call it by its name and destroy it,” Stefanik said. “President Trump understood that, and B’ezrat hashem, we will return to that strategy soon.” Stefanik is already making clear that Israel will remain a top priority of hers if she is confirmed as ambassador: The congresswoman is scheduled to meet with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Tuesday, according to The Times of Israel. The nomination highlights Trump’s penchant for rewarding his most loyal allies with plum assignments. It also marks the culmination of Stefanik’s head-snapping turn from moderate lawmaker with a reputation for reaching across the aisle to fierce partisan who emerged as one of Trump’s most ardent defenders on Capitol Hill. That support first gained prominence during Trump’s first impeachment in 2019, and it only grew louder in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. That loyalty to the former president was quickly rewarded in the months following the rampage when House Republicans — infuriated that Rep. Liz Cheney (Wyo.), a member of their own leadership ranks, had voted to impeach Trump for his role in the attack — voted to oust Cheney and promote Stefanik as the conference chair.
RFK Jr. role in Donald Trump administration sparks health concerns - President-elect Trump’s promise to let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “go wild” on health is demoralizing public health experts, who worry he could meddle with key government agencies, amplify vaccine hesitancy and direct agency funding to favor his preferred views. Those include removing fluoride from public water, promoting a wide variety of unorthodox and unproven treatments and pushing a deep skepticism of pharmaceutical companies and the agencies overseeing them. But with Trump’s victory, Kennedy could soon be in charge of those same agencies. “FDA’s war on public health is about to end,” Kennedy wrote on social media shortly before the election, referring to the Food and Drug Administration. “This includes its aggressive suppression of psychedelics, peptides, stem cells, raw milk, hyperbaric therapies, chelating compounds, ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, vitamins, clean foods, sunshine, exercise, nutraceuticals and anything else that advances human health and can’t be patented by Pharma. If you work for the FDA and are part of this corrupt system, I have two messages for you: 1. Preserve your records, and 2. Pack your bags.” During a victory speech early Wednesday morning, Trump declared the country had delivered him and Republicans an “unprecedented mandate.” That will mean big changes to health, starting with Kennedy. Kennedy and Trump have been vague about what the former’s role could be, with Trump advisers and Kennedy mentioning agriculture as well as vaccine policy. There have been conflicting statements about whether Trump would put Kennedy in a Senate-confirmed Cabinet spot such as secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS). In separate interviews with NPR and NBC on Wednesday, Kennedy said he wouldn’t take vaccines away from anybody. But he also repeated his criticism that health agencies haven’t done enough research on vaccines. “We are going to make sure that Americans have good information right now. The science on vaccine safety particularly has huge deficits, and we’re going to make sure those scientific studies are done and that people can make informed choices about their vaccinations and their children’s vaccinations,” Kennedy told NPR. Vaccines have been around for centuries, and modern vaccines have for decades protected hundreds of millions of Americans against diseases like measles, rubella, polio, meningitis and even the flu. Public health agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have reams of results from clinical studies and real-world data showing vaccines are safe and effective. Experts say there are institutional guardrails in place at federal agencies that would prevent some of the most radical changes from happening, such as having vaccines pulled off the market. Pushback from courts, industry and Congress could temper Trump and Kennedy’s vision for radical changes. But they are concerned Kennedy could still have an outsized impact. “I worry greatly for the future of public health, environment and science in the next four years,” said Lawrence Gostin, a global health law professor at Georgetown University Law Center. In his speech Wednesday at Mar-a-Lago — with Kennedy in attendance — Trump promised that Kennedy would “help make America healthy again” and that “we’re going to let him do it.” First as an independent candidate for president and then as a surrogate for Trump, Kennedy has said federal health regulators are “sock puppets” held captive by industry special interests. He told NPR his mandate from Trump was to get rid of “the corruption and the conflicts” at regulatory agencies, to “return the agencies to the gold standard” of “empirically based, evidence-based science and medicine” and to “end the chronic disease epidemic with measurable impacts” within two years.
John Fetterman supports Marco Rubio as Donald Trump's secretary of State --Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman said he would vote to confirm his colleague Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) as secretary of State if selected by President-elect Trump. “Unsurprisingly, the other team’s pick will have political differences than my own. That being said, my colleague @SenMarcoRubio is a strong choice and I look forward to voting for his confirmation,” Fetterman wrote in a Tuesday morning post on the social platform X. The news of Trump’s expected nomination of Rubio as his top diplomat came Monday. Rubio, who ran against Trump during the 2016 Republican primary, was at one point in consideration to be the president-elect’s running mate. Ultimately, Trump chose Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio). The Florida senator is expected to be confirmed in the upper chamber. His appointment will shrink the GOP majority in the Senate until Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appoints a replacement. Rubio, who is on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is seen as tough on Iran and China. Apart from Rubio, Trump has quickly filled out some of his national security posts, selected Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as his ambassador to the United Nations and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) to be his national security adviser.Rubio, who was first elected to the Senate in 2010, has even received praise from some vocal Trump critics. Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) characterized Rubio’s selection as “pretty good.” “You know, Marco Rubio has been obviously kind of changing, I think he even voted against Ukraine aid, which was very surprising when I learned that,” Kinzinger said on CNN. “But he’s not a, you know — by no means is he like a neocon, so obviously that was important for Donald Trump, but he’s somebody that understands foreign policy, and that’s going to be important.”
Paulson rules out role in Trump's administration amid speculation - Billionaire investor John Paulson said Tuesday he will not serve in President-elect Trump’s new administration amid speculation that he could be tapped to serve as Treasury secretary. “Although various media outlets have mentioned me as a candidate for Secretary of the Treasury, my complex financial obligations would prevent me from holding an official position in President Trump’s administration at this time,” Paulson said in a statement, first reported by The Wall Street Journal. “However, I intend to remain actively involved with the President’s economic team and helping in the implementation of President Trump’s outstanding policy proposals,” he added. Paulson, a Republican mega-donor, has been a vocal supporter of Trump and his economic proposals. Last month, he spoke to the Journal about his potential role in a Trump administration, pledging to work with tech mogul and key Trump ally Elon Musk on efforts to cut government costs. “I’m ecstatic that President Trump will be back in office,” Paulson said in Tuesday’s statement. “He is off to a fast start with his appointments, and his policies will have an immensely positive impact on all Americans.” With Paulson bowing out, fellow investor Scott Bessent is viewed as the most likely candidate for Trump’s Treasury secretary. Bessent reportedly met with the president-elect at Mar-a-Lago on Friday, according to Reuters.
Tuberville: US military ‘couldn’t beat anybody right now’ --Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) said Monday that the U.S. military could not defeat any country in battle right now and called the armed services a “disaster.”“We need to build our military up,” Tuberville told Fox News’s Laura Ingraham. “Our military right now, Laura, is a disaster. Absolute disaster. We couldn’t beat anybody right now.”“We’ve got some good people in the military. But the structure of it, the things that we’ve done, the Democrats have destroyed it,” he added during his “The Ingraham Angle” appearance.Tuberville’s comments came in a conversation about sending aid to Ukraine. He touted the fact that he has not voted to send any financial assistance to Ukraine as the country defends itself against a Russian invasion.In the interview Monday, Tuberville repeated his view that Ukraine cannot win the nearly three-year-long war and suggested he was eager for President-elect Trump to negotiate an end to it.“They can’t win, Laura,” Tuberville said. “I didn’t want to get these people killed. They can’t win. They’re undermanned, they’re understaffed.”“President Trump is going to get them out of this,” he continued. “I don’t know what he’s going to have to give up to get them out of it, but we cannot continue to send money over there.”Trump, who won the presidential election last week, has not yet announced his pick to lead the Defense Department, nor has he outlined his priorities for the armed forces. His allies and former officials, however, have telegraphed their expectation of a military reset in a second Trump administration: from cuts to spending and thinning of the top ranks, to a rollback of diversity and inclusion initiatives.
Trump draft executive order would set up board to oust generals en masse: report The transition team for President-elect Trump is working on an executive order that would speed up the firing of top military brass if signed, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. The draft executive order would set up a “warrior board” of retired generals and noncommissioned officers given power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend anyone “lacking in requisite leadership qualities,” according to the document, reviewed by the Journal. If signed by Trump once he takes office, it could allow the quick removal of generals and admirals and purge the ranks of those the future commander-in-chief takes issue with for whatever reason. Such a move could gut the Defense Department and create a fearful atmosphere among top military officers, given Trump’s past promise to rid the Pentagon of so-called “woke generals” – those seen as promoting diversity in the ranks. The order could also effectively bypass the Pentagon’s regular promotion system, as those identified for removal by the warrior board would be relayed to the White House and then retired at their current rank within 30 days, according to the Journal. As president and commander-in-chief of the U.S. Armed Forces, Trump has the discretion to fire any officer. But an established board would do the heavy lifting and root out officials en masse. The draft order appears hazy on details and said reviews would focus “on leadership capability, strategic readiness, and commitment to military excellence,” though did not specify how officers would show if they meet such standards. A transition official told the Journal that the draft order came from one of several outside policy groups working with the transition team and is under review. The Hill has sent the Trump transition team a request for comment as to the draft executive order but received no response as of press time. And a Trump-Vance Transition spokeswoman would not comment to the Journal on the order but said “the American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail. He will deliver.” Should such a board be established, it would follow Trump’s calls for ridding the military of what he sees as unloyal generals, those involved in highly criticized events — such as the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan — or those that helped advance more liberal policies under the Biden administration. Trump has long fumed over military officials that he views as not properly toeing the line, including former Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. Mark Milley. Trump has accused Milley of going behind his back in the final days of his administration when the retired four-star general talked to Chinese counterparts to reassure Beijing after Trump lost reelection in 2020. “This is an act so egregious that, in times gone by, the punishment would have been DEATH! A war between China and the United States could have been the result of this treasonous act,” Trump wrote in September 2023. While in the White House the first time, Trump reportedly said he wanted “the kind of generals that Hitler had. . . . People who were totally loyal to him, that follow orders.” And while on the campaign trail in October, Trump floated the idea of a task force to monitor the “woke generals.”
Trump taps Fox News host Pete Hegseth for Defense secretary - President-elect Trump on Tuesday announced he was choosing Pete Hegseth, an Army veteran and a Fox News host, to serve as Defense secretary.Hegseth served as an infantry captain in the Army National Guard and did tours in Afghanistan and Iraq, earning two Bronze Stars. He is currently a co-host for “Fox & Friends Weekend.”“Pete is tough, smart and a true believer in America First. With Pete at the helm, America’s enemies are on notice – Our Military will be Great Again, and America will Never Back Down,” Trump said in a statement. The president-elect also used his statement to promote Hegseth’s new book, as well as his work with veterans advocacy groups. “Nobody fights harder for the Troops, and Pete will be a courageous and patriotic champion of our ‘Peace through Strength’ policy,” Trump added. Fox News confirmed to The Hill Hegseth’s deal with the network ended on Tuesday and he will no longer host its popular morning program “Fox and Friends Weekend,” a program he had presided over since 2017. “Pete Hegseth has been an exceptional host on FOX & Friends and FOX Nation and a best-selling author for FOX News Books for nearly a decade,” a spokesperson for the cable channel said. “His insights and analysis especially about the military resonated deeply with our viewers and made the program the major success that it is today. We are extremely proud of his work at FOX News and wish him the best of luck in Washington.” Hegseth started with Fox News as a contributor in 2014 and has been one of its most prominent commentators on military affairs and foreign policy ever since. He started co-hosting its weekend morning talk program on a regular basis in late 2016 and was officially named to the role the following January. Hegseth was also instrumental to the network’s push into streaming and live events, hosting the Fox Nation “Patriot Awards” every year since 2019, the outlet’s version of a Hollywood awards show that honors first responders, military and police personnel. Trump’s pick of Hegseth was somewhat unexpected, as his name had not been circulated among those likely to be considered for the job. The post requires Senate confirmation. Republicans are likely to have 53 seats, meaning Hegseth could afford four GOP defections if he doesn’t receive any Democratic support.Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) said she was “surprised” by the pick.“I’m just surprised. I’m not going to comment on whether it’s good, bad or indifferent. I’m just surprised because the names that I’ve heard for secretary of Defense have not included him,” she said.Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), meanwhile, said he was unfamiliar with Hegseth.“I don’t know anything about him,” Cassidy said. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) praised the move on Tuesday night, saying Hegseth is a “highly qualified” candidate who will shake up a Pentagon in need of reform. “It’s a great choice,” Johnson said shortly after the announcement. “It’s somebody who, I think, will be reform-minded in areas that need to be reformed. And he’s highly qualified.”Democrats were less sure. Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.), senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said he had “no earthly idea” who Hegseth was until the announcement. And that lack of prominence within the defense community, he added, could be a sign of problems to come.“The lack of experience is concerning. Now, I have not heard what his plans are, so we will see what his plans are. But it was surprising,” he said. “The Pentagon — [it’s] the biggest bureaucracy in the world. It’s a hard thing to run.”Fox News host Laura Ingraham was also among those apparently surprised by Hegseth’s selection, reading Trump’s statement on air just minutes after he made the announcement. “Wow, that is pretty cool,” Ingraham, a vocal Trump backer, said. “We’re going to miss him at Fox, but that’s a gain for the country. That’s incredible.”The president-elect spoke frequently on the campaign trail about firing military leadership involved in the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, which led to the death of 13 American soldiers, and about rooting out what he and his allies describe as “woke” elements of the military that are focused on social justice and equity.The Wall Street Journal reported earlier Tuesday evening that Trump’s transition team is weighing a draft executive order that would establish a board of retired military personnel who could review the status of three- and four-star generals for potential removal from their posts.Trump drew scrutiny in the closing weeks of the presidential campaign after he suggested the military could be used to quell unrest among his critics in the event he won.
‘Who the f--k is this guy?’: Defense world reacts to Trump’s surprise Pentagon pick - President-elect Donald Trump’s Tuesday night surprise pick of a conservative commentator and television host as his Pentagon chief shocked Washington, which had expected the nominee to be a seasoned lawmaker or someone with defense policy experience. National security officials and defense analysts had braced for surprises from Trump after experiencing his first four years in office. But even grading on that curve, they say the announcement of Fox News host and decorated Army veteran Pete Hegseth caught them totally off-guard. “[Trump] puts the highest value on loyalty,” Eric Edelman, who served as the Pentagon’s top policy official during the Bush administration, said in an interview. “It appears that one of the main criteria that’s being used is, how well do people defend Donald Trump on television?” One assessment was more blunt. “Who the fuck is this guy?” said a defense industry lobbyist who was granted anonymity to offer candid views. The lobbyist said they had hoped for “someone who actually has an extensive background in defense. That would be a good start.”The pick will do little to quell fears inside the Pentagon and beyond that Trump, who jousted with his own defense secretaries, plans this time to install a loyalist who will unquestioningly carry out his policies. Trump’s campaign trail rhetoric has primed fears that his second term could see a swift and divisive overhaul at the Pentagon.Trump’s return is expected to bring a collective rollback of Biden administration policies, likely reinstating a ban on transgender troops, ending abortion travel policies, reigniting battles over bases named for Confederate figures, slashing diversity programs and the use of troops on U.S. soil against civil unrest and his political enemies.Late in his first term, Trump also ordered the pullout of thousands of U.S. troops from Germany, something the Pentagon was unable to accomplish in the short amount of time he had left in office.Hegseth’s selection drew immediate backlash from veterans group leaders who opposed him when he was floated for Veterans Affairs secretary during Trump’s first term. He is a former executive director for Vets for Freedom and former CEO of Concerned Veterans for America — a group advocating for outsourcing of health care for veterans that was funded by the Koch brothers.“Hegseth is undoubtedly the least qualified nominee for SecDef in American history. And the most overtly political. Brace yourself, America,” Paul Rieckhoff, founder of Independent Veterans of America, said in a post on X Tuesday night.
Pete Hegseth had been flagged by service member as possible 'Insider Threat' (AP) — Pete Hegseth, the Army National Guard veteran and Fox News hostnominated by Donald Trump to lead the Department of Defense, was flagged as a possible “Insider Threat” by a fellow service member due to a tattoo on his bicep that’s associated with white supremacist groups. Hegseth, who has downplayed the role of military members and veterans in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack and railed against the Pentagon’s subsequent efforts to address extremism in the ranks, has said he was pulled by his District of Columbia National Guard unit from guarding Joe Biden’s January 2021 inauguration. He’s said he was unfairly identified as an extremist due to a cross tattoo on his chest.This week, however, a fellow Guard member who was the unit’s security manager and on an anti-terrorism team at the time, shared with The Associated Press an email he sent to the unit’s leadership flagging a different tattoo reading “Deus Vult” that’s been used by white supremacists, concerned it was an indication of an “Insider Threat.”If Hegseth assumes office, it would mean that someone who has said it’s a sham that extremism is a problem in the military would oversee a sprawling department whose leadership reacted with alarm when people in tactical gear stormed up the U.S. Capitol steps on Jan. 6 in military-style stack formation. He’s also shown support for members of the military accused of war crimes and criticized the military’s justice system.
The Incoming Trump Administration Is Already Filling Up With War Sluts - Caitlin Johnstone -- Donald Trump has named Republican congressman Mike Waltz as his next national security advisor, a position that was held by ultrahawk John Bolton in the last Trump administration. Like Bolton, Waltz is a warmongering freak. Journalist Michael Tracey has been filling up his Twitter page since the announcement with examples of Waltz’s insane hawkishness, including his support for letting Ukraine use US weapons to strike deep into Russian territory, criticizing Biden for not escalating aggressively enough in Ukraine, advocating bombing Iran, opposing the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, and naming Iran, North Korea, China, Russia and Venezuela as “on the march” against the United States toward global conflict. The mainstream press are calling Waltz a “China hawk”, but from the look of things he’s a war-horny hawk toward all the official enemies of the United States. Trump has also confirmed that Republican congresswoman Elise Stefanik will be taking on the role of US ambassador to the UN, a role previously held by warmonger Nikki Haley in the last Trump administration. Again, there doesn’t seem to be much difference between the old hawk and the new one. Stefanik is best known for her congressional efforts to stomp out free speech on college campuses, making a lie of Trump’s lip service to the importance of First Amendment rights. As explained by Antiwar’s Dave DeCamp, she’s a hawkish swamp monster whose political career was primed in some of the most odious neoconservative think tanks in Washington, and opposes placing any limits on US military support for Israel. Earlier this year Stefanik actually flew to Israel to give a speech before the Israeli Knesset vowing to help stop the “antisemitism” of protesters against Israel’s genocidal atrocities at American universities. And now we’re getting reports throughout the mass media that deranged war slut Marco Rubio has been tapped as Trump’s new secretary of state. It’s really hard to imagine anyone worse for the role of Washington’s top diplomat than a warmonger who has spent his entire political career pushing for more wars, sanctions and slaughter at every opportunity. This should dash the hopes of Trump supporters everywhere that this time their guy really will end the wars and drain the swamp. Trump’s appointment of Iran hawk Brian Hook to help staff the State Department for the next administration and his rumored consideration of Mike Rogers for secretary of defense are likewise bad signs, as is Tucker Carlson’s claim that virulent China hawk Elbridge Colby is likely to play a role in the administration.Trump’s anti-interventionist supporters loudly applauded the other day when he unexpectedly announced that Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley would not be playing a role in the next administration. In response to the announcement, libertarian comedian and podcaster Dave Smith said on Twitter that stopping Pompeo was not enough and that “we need maximum pressure to keep all neocons and war hawks out of the Trump administration.” In response to Smith’s post, Donald Trump Jr tweeted, “Agreed!!! I’m on it.”When I saw this, I tweeted the following:“Ignore their words and watch their actions. Been saying it for years, and I’m going to keep on saying it. Ignore their words, watch their actions. Talk, as they say, is cheap.” Their actions are telling us a lot more than their words right now.
How Trump will change American foreign policy -- Foreign policy may not have been a central issue during the election, but with Donald Trump returning to the White House, the potential implications for global politics are huge. Trump’s approach deviates dramatically from the postwar consensus that has seen the U.S. act as a global stabilizer, using its power to promote democracy and ensure security — even when doing so came with financial and military sacrifices. Trump’s unpredictability and willingness to upend longstanding norms could set off a wave of radical change in key regions, potentially reshaping the global order as we know it. The most dramatic change could occur in Ukraine. The Biden administration has backed Ukraine’s sovereignty but imposed limits on the use of U.S. weapons that hinder Ukraine’s ability to strike back at Russia. While this has frustrated Ukraine, Trump will likely be far worse. He has long demonstrated affinity for Vladimir Putin, while harboring deep disdain for Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky — stemming in part from Zelensky’s refusal to be shaken down by Trump during the scandal that led to Trump’s first impeachment. The stage could be set for Trump to reduce aid to Ukraine to push Zelensky into negotiations with Russia. Former Trump advisors have articulated such a plan and repeated Russia’s narrative of NATO enlargement triggering the war. Other former Trump officials have proposed more robust support for Ukraine, including lifting the restrictions on Kyiv’s use of American weapons to strike inside Russia. An abandonment of Ukraine could trigger an earthquake in European politics. The EU would face a difficult choice: step in to fill the void left by the U.S. and rapidly bolster its own defense and aid mechanisms for Ukraine, or risk Russian expansionism moving unchecked. Abandoning Ukraine risks Putin perceiving a green light to pursue further expansions. Indeed, each time he believes he has faced down the West — as in Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and Syria in 2015 — he has launched a larger war within a few years. Trump seems isolationist, but can also perceive opportunities for a win. The situation in the Middle East is untenable, with Gaza headed toward forever-war status and Iran — whose proxy militias all over the region are an outrage — approaching nuclear-weapon status. Someone needs to pressure much of the leadership in the region, including Qatar, which seeks respectability yet refuses to squeeze Hamas into giving up in Gaza. Trump’s nonchalance about working with authoritarian regimes and his personal relationship with Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman may help. If Trump makes clear to Iran that it will face military action unless it ends its regional chaos project and stops its nuclear program, this would be applauded in both Jerusalem and Arab capitals. If he pressures Israel — where he has support and credibility — into freezing Jewish settlement deep in the West Bank and assisting with a reasonable day-after plan in Gaza, it would be applauded the world over (including by most Israelis). In East Asia, Taiwan stands as a beacon of democracy, and its case for protection by the U.S. rests on a longstanding commitment to democratic ideals. But Trump’s view of Taiwan will again be more transactional than ideological. If Trump opts to leverage Taiwan as a bargaining chip in his trade disputes with China, the region could face heightened tensions. A massive tariff war with China — which Trump threatens — could factor here. One of Trump’s claimed achievements during his previous administration was his insistence that NATO allies meet their defense spending targets, which nudged them a little. As a result, several member states increased their budgets. Expect him to redouble efforts to demand even higher contributions from NATO members (meaning, at the agreed level). The accession of Sweden and Finland has strengthened NATO, but Trump’s ambivalence toward NATO could create divisions within the alliance. The small and often overlooked South Caucasus region may see major repercussions as well. For example, a Trump administration less inclined to protect Armenia’s democratic aspirations, as it pivots away from dependency on Russia, could force European powers into a more proactive stance. This could create fractures within NATO and strain relations within Europe, leaving the door open for increased Russian or Turkish influence in the South Caucasus. Georgia, long a stalwart democratic and pro-Western country, has been descending into an authoritarian and pro-Russian state, while the West did little. Georgia’s recent elections were clearly manipulated, and tens of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets in protest. Georgia’s government was certainly cheered by Trump’s election, assuming it will now have carte blanche to continue to repress civil society and turn the country toward Russia, against the expressed will of its people. Much will depend on Trump’s foreign policy appointments. If he appoints establishment figures who might restrain his impulses, that is one thing — but a team of toadies unable to restrain him would be another. A policy not driven by vendettas, pettiness and ignorance would, for many, be the biggest surprise for all.
Donald Trump to select Kristi Noem as Homeland Security head: Reports --President-elect Trump has selected South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) to lead the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), according to a source familiar with the decision.Noem was previously floated as a possible running mate for Trump, but her consideration fizzled after the release of her autobiography, in which she described having killed a dog that was “untrainable.”Instead, the Republican governor will be tapped to lead the sprawling agency tasked with protecting the U.S from terror threats, securing the borders and enforcing U.S. immigration law. Trump has also tasked DHS with carrying out the “largest deportation operation in American history.”The pick of Noem is the latest sign of Trump’s intention to take a hard line on immigration policy, with an agenda he has said will represent the largest deportation in U.S. history.If confirmed, Noem would work closely with Stephen Miller, whom Trump tapped to serve as his deputy chief of staff for policy. Miller was instrumental in shaping many of Trump’s toughest immigration policies in his first term.Trump also selected Tom Homan as his “border czar,” welcoming back an early proponent of child separation under the first Trump administration who, in discussing the forthcoming Trump administration’s immigration plans, recently said “families can be deported together.”Noem has little national security experience, but she did send the South Dakota National Guard to the U.S.-Mexico border and has been vocal on immigration issues.“South Dakota won’t be taking any illegal immigrants that the Biden Administration wants to relocate. My message to illegal immigrants… call me when you’re an American,” Noem wrote on social platform X in 2021, shortly after President Biden took office.She also supported Trump’s Muslim travel ban while serving as a member of Congress and also supported pausing some refugee screening.“I share the President’s concerns about our ability to screen refugees—especially those from terrorist hotbed areas,” Noem said in 2017. “I support putting a temporary pause on accepting refugees from terrorist-held areas—at least until the administration can certify that asylum-seekers do not present a safety threat to the U.S.”
Trump ‘border czar’ says administration will conduct workplace immigration raids --Incoming “border czar” Tom Homan said Monday that President-elect Trump’s administration will crank up workplace raids as part of its broader immigration crackdown. Speaking on “Fox & Friends,” the former director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) said workplace raids would address labor and sex trafficking. “Where do we find most victims of sex trafficking and forced labor trafficking? At worksites,” Homan told Steve Doocy. But advocates say that approach is unlikely to help combat trafficking. “He’s conflating the traffickers with the people being trafficked,” said Heidi Altman, director of federal advocacy at the National Immigration Law Center.“Tom Homan is skilled at using public safety rhetoric to justify vicious tactics that tear families apart.”Homan, an early proponent of the “zero tolerance” policy that separated more than 4,000 children from their parents in the first Trump administration, said he will prioritize “public safety threats and national security threats” for deportation as border czar.But Homan said foreign nationals with orders of deportation “became a fugitive,” suggesting immigrants without criminal records but with final orders of deportation would be high on the list of deportation priorities.Homan told Doocy that the Biden administration “has lost over 300,000 children that were smuggled in this country by criminal cartels,” a reference to a debunked campaign claim voiced both by Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance regarding a report published by the Homeland Security Office of Inspector General in August.According to the report, 291,000 unaccompanied children had not received a notice to appear in court as of May 2024, and a further 32,000 received a notice but did not appear.Those figures related to nearly 450,000 unaccompanied children released by ICE to the Department of Health and Human Services between October 2018 and September 2023, meaning a number of them were released by the first Trump administration.“This is not a ‘missing kids’ problem; it’s a ‘missing paperwork’ problem,” Jonathan Beier, associate director of research and evaluation for the Acacia Center for Justice’s Unaccompanied Children Program, told The Associated Press in October.
Trump’s border czar to critics: 'Legal immigrants are perfectly safe' - Tom Homan, President-elect Trump’s pick for “border czar” in his upcoming administration, pushed back against critics of his immigration ideology. Fox Business’s Elizabeth MacDonald showed recent clips featuring MSNBC anchor Nicolle Wallace saying Homan has “ties to Project 2025,” former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro saying he has “a cowboy attitude” and that Trump’s deportation plan will “require a lot of pushback” and “The View” co-host Ana Navarro saying “when he says ‘Yes, families can be deported together,’ what he is saying, is that U.S. citizens can be deported.”“Are you saying that, Tom?” MacDonald asked Homan on “The Evening Edit,” referring to Navarro’s statement. Homan responded that “U.S. citizens” and “legal immigrants are perfectly safe, for God’s sakes.”Late last month, in response to a question from journalist Cecilia Vega on CBS’s “60 Minutes” about the possibility of going forward with “mass deportation without separating families,” Homan said “there is” and that “Families can be deported together.”Earlier in his interview on “The Evening Edit,” Homan said the Biden administration has “deported families together.”“I mean, look … if these people demand due process, they demand the right to claim asylum, they demand the right [to see a judge], and we give them to ‘em at an [exorbitant] taxpayer cost, at the end of that due process, if [a] federal judge [says] ‘You must go home,’ they have to go home,” Homan added. “If they don’t, then what the hell are we doing?”
Why the Enthusiasm for Mass Deportation, A Hard and Likely Largely Losing Way to Deal with Illegal Immigration? by Yves Smith - Mass deportations look set to become the new “Defund the police,” a catchy sounding, absolute and un-implementable solution to messy and long-standing problems. That is not to say that the Trump Administration will find some groups procedurally easy to deport, like the 1.3 million with final orders of deportation from immigration court. But as we will see soon, legal and operational issues loom large and will generate high costs even if they can be solved.1 Since there is no plan yet, merely speculation and spitballing by interested parties, we’ll limit this post to high-level issues. But a key one, and weirdly absent from most discussions, is why the fixation with forcing out illegal immigrants the hard way, as in locating and rounding them up and shipping them somewhere else, supposedly where they came from? It should be obvious that this is operationally very difficult, even before getting to the large legal impediments. The much simpler way is to make it very very difficult for these migrants to get paid work, and in a more draconian version, make it hard for them to get driver’s licenses that were valid nationally. That is less hard than it might seem. And it would have the merit of targeting a root cause, that of employers being willing to hire, as in exploit, undocumented laborers. This approach would be far from comprehensive (we’ll sketch out possible approaches below), but it would likely have a much faster impact than a controversial, cumbersome, and costly deportation scheme. And it would have the second-order effect of making the US much less appealing to economic migrants, who by all accounts constitute the great majority of undocumented arrivals. Of course, one could take the cynical view that the mass deportation scheme is meant to fail. Trump has to recall well the simpler and easier to execute idea of a border wall did not get done. A successful mass deportation scheme (and our lighter-touch analogue) would deprive a lot of businesses of cheap workers, particularly in nasty jobs like the meatpacking industry and ones like construction, where new migrants provide a flexible labor pool. My conservative-watching contacts say the alternative of targeting employers and workplaces is well known as a way to seriously dent employment of undocumented workers. But aside from occasional raids, there’s not been much willingness to go there due to the expected, loud outcries from the rule-breaking business operators. A related issue is how to reduce entry at the Mexico border. “Reducing entry” is very much in the “ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure” category, since as we will see soon, anyone on US soil has Constitutional due process rights. Since these plans are being formulated, we’ll use a weekend Wall Street Journal story, Trump Advisers Ramp Up Work on Mass Deportation Push, for a current reading. Note the proposal are overlapping. They include:
- Declaring a national emergency to allow for the use of “military assets.” That would also allow for the immediate use of Pentagon funds, which could
- Fund building that wall
- Allow for using bases and military equipment, along with service members, to help with detention and removal
- Reversing the Biden policy of leaving illegal immigrants who had not committed crimes alone
- Improving Immigration Court procedures to expedite cases
- Hiring more Federal agents
The American Immigration Council has estimated the outlay for a full-bore deportation program at $968 billion due among other things to increased need for manpower, detention locations, and transportation, particularly planes to cart migrants to home countries. There don’t yet seem to be competing tallies from conservatives. Trump is unapologetic about a possible nose-bleed price tag. He could point out that the annual run rate is lower than for supporting the Ukraine war under Biden. Some details from the Journal about procedural details and issues:Officials from Trump’s first administration have also written draft executive orders to resume construction of the border wall and revise President Biden’s existing restrictions on asylum at the southern border to remove the humanitarian exemptions. They are planning to enter aggressive negotiations with Mexico to revive the Remain in Mexico policy, a person working on Trump’s transition said, and are identifying potential safe third countries where asylum seekers could be sent. They also want to revoke deportation protections from millions of immigrants who have either been granted a form of humanitarian protection known as temporary protected status—which covers hundreds of thousands of Haitians and Venezuelans—or entered the country on a quasi-legal status called humanitarian parole. That population includes millions who have entered via government appointments at the southern border, as well as tens of thousands of Afghans evacuated after the fall of Kabul and hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians allowed into the U.S. following the Russian invasion…. Rather than forcibly deporting all migrants, Trump’s advisers hope they can induce some to leave voluntarily, according to people familiar with the matter. They have discussed offering immigrants in the country illegally—or those who entered on parole through Biden administration programs—a chance to leave the country without penalties, so they can return on a visa if they are eligible. Under normal circumstances, when someone is deported, they are barred from returning on a visa for 10 years. It is striking that this article ignores the elephant in the room, the Constitutional due process rights of all immigrants. It depicts a remark by a Congressional Ultra as wanting to get rid of the above-mentioned “deportation protections” like temporary protected status, when his remark clearly covers the much bigger barrier of the right to court hearings as a precondition to deportation. Again from the Journal: Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas), an anti-illegal-immigration hard-liner, said he thinks the Trump administration should disregard those deportation protections because, in his view, they were issued illegally. “I believe we need to push the boundaries and claim they’ve got no status,” he said. We’ll turn to that issue in the next section. The Journal does address the “sanctuary cities” problem, but oddly not by name: Trump struggled during his first term to deport large numbers of migrants, particularly those living in blue states that cut off cooperation with the federal government. In addition to a huge infusion of cash, mass deportations would require unprecedented coordination among federal, state and local officials. Last time, Trump not only lacked Republican control of both houses, but also considerable opposition from within the party. If Trump were to use the “national emergency” route, it seems likely that the Federal authority would supersede that of states and cities, as in the military or Federal policing bodies could remove immigrants in sanctuary cities over their objections. Of course, the lack of state and local police help would indeed make the effort much harder. It might also be possible for the Feds to punish uncooperative states and municipalities. There’s plenty of precedent for the national government withholding funds to jurisdictions that failed to comply with Federal mandates, see for instance, CMS withholds another $1-plus million over vaccine mandate compliance. The case here was Florida for not requiring Federal healthcare workers to get Covid shots. Having said that, I’m not sure these holdbacks have ever been big enough to cause sufficient pain so as to change behavior. The other aspect that hasn’t get gotten the consideration it warrants is the very bad authoritarian look of an aggressive implementation of these measures. It allow Dems to stoke fears that the intellectual elites would be the next to be herded into of Cultural Revolution camps. What if, say, Team Trump tries to encourage Stasi-level spying by paying bounties for valid and usable reports of where illegal immigrants live and work? Will freedom-cheering conservatives sign up happily for a bulked-up police state apparatus? For starters, “due process” means cases have to be handled individually, and the defendant has the right to a court. And everyone who is in the US has that right. This is why the Republicans are so keen to enlist Mexico to help prevent entry, and to focus on the low-hanging fruit of the 1.3 million who have outstanding deportation orders.
Elon Musk, Ramaswamy land Trump admin roles -- President-elect Trump has tapped tech entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead an advisory group focused on cutting federal spending and reducing the size of the government. Trump announced Tuesday that Musk and Ramaswamy would lead his “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), an initiative meant to “slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures” and restructure federal agencies. Trump said DOGE would “provide advice and guidance from outside of government” and partner with the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB). “It will become, potentially, ‘The Manhattan Project’ of our time. Republican politicians have dreamed about the objectives of ‘DOGE’ for a very long time,” the president-elect added. It was not immediately clear whether DOGE would be an official part of the Trump administration or advise the White House from outside the government. “To drive this kind of drastic change, the Department of Government Efficiency will provide advice and guidance from outside of Government, and will partner with the White House and Office of Management & Budget to drive large scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to Government never seen before.” In a statement shared by Trump, Musk said DOGE will “send shockwaves through the system and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people!” Musk later published a series of social media posts reacting to the announcement. “Threat to democracy? Nope, threat to BUREAUCRACY!!!” he said in one post. “We will not go gently @elonmusk,” Ramaswamy added.
Trump Picks John Ratcliffe To Lead CIA - President-elect Donald Trump announced Tuesday that he has selected former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe to serve as the director of the CIA. Ratcliffe worked as Trump’s DNI from 2020 to 2021 and was a House representative for a district in Texas from 2015 to 2020. Back in 2004, President George W. Bush appointed Ratcliffe as the Chief of Anti-Terrorism and National Security for the Eastern District of Texas, and he was later promoted to the Attorney General for the district, where he worked from 2007 to 2008.The incoming CIA director is a supporter of sweeping government surveillance powers as he lobbied for the extension of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA), a law that allows the government to spy on American citizens without a warrant. In 2023, Ratcliffe and several other former Trump officials, including Mike Pompeo and Bill Barr, sent a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) to support the extension. Ratcliffe is known as a Trump loyalist for pushing back against unfounded allegations about Russian election interference in his role at the DNI. Recently, he has been pushing claims about Iran allegedly hacking the Trump campaign and plotting to kill the president-elect, a charge Tehran has strongly denied. Ratcliffe has used the allegations to call for the US to join Israel in taking a harder line against Iran. Ratcliffe is also a China hawk and has called for the US to prepare for a “confrontation” with Beijing. “If I could communicate one thing to the American people from this unique vantage point, it is that the People’s Republic of China poses the greatest threat to America today, and the greatest threat to democracy and freedom worldwide since World War II,” he wrote in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal published in December 2020.
Trump picks Rep. Matt Gaetz to serve as attorney general — President-elect Donald Trump has chosen Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida to serve as his attorney general. “Few issues in America are more important than ending the partisan Weaponization of our Justice System,” Trump wrote Wednesday in a post on his Truth Social platform. “Matt will end Weaponized Government, protect our Borders, dismantle Criminal Organizations and restore Americans’ badly-shattered Faith and Confidence in the Justice Department.” Gaetz, a Trump loyalist and conservative representative from Florida, had spent several days at Mar-a-Lago over the past week, two sources familiar with his plans told CNN, and he flew to Washington with Trump on his private plane Wednesday. He said in an X post on the heels of the announcement that it would “be an honor to serve” in the role. The selection, which will be subject to Senate approval once Gaetz is formally nominated by Trump, sets up the potential for a provocative confirmation process. If confirmed, Gaetz would take over the nation’s top law enforcement agency – the same one that pursued a yearslong sex-crimes investigation into the congressman. The Justice Department ultimately decided last year not to pursue criminal charges against him. Gaetz has a relatively limited amount of experience as a practicing lawyer, especially compared to other recent attorneys general who had experience as top prosecutors, judges or nationally prominent defense lawyers. Instead, much of his professional career after graduating from the College of William & Mary Law School has been as a politician. The role of attorney general will be crucial to Trump’s vision for his second term and will help enforce the president-elect’s policy on immigration, reproductive health and the political retribution he vowed on the campaign trail. Trump has claimed that he wants to gut the justice system as part of an effort to break down legal restrictions and traditional protections against political interference, CNN has reported. Gaetz has long accused the Justice Department of being weaponized under President Joe Biden against conservatives including Trump and has called for abolishing the DOJ and FBI barring significant changes.
Matt Gaetz resigns from Congress after being picked for attorney general - President-elect Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he has chosen Rep. Matt Gaetz as his pick for attorney general, a move that, if he's confirmed by the Senate, would place a firebrand and one of Trump's most loyal allies at the head of the Justice Department. "Matt is a deeply gifted and tenacious attorney, trained at the William & Mary College of Law, who has distinguished himself in Congress through his focus on achieving desperately needed reform at the Department of Justice," Trump said in his social media post. Gaetz is an explosive selection by Trump to be the chief law enforcement officer of the federal government, leading the very same executive branch of government that spent years investigating allegations regarding the Florida congressman. Gaetz was informed that the Justice Department would not seek charges just last year. He has long denied any wrongdoing. The House Ethics Committee was in the final stages of its investigation into Gaetz over allegations of sexual misconduct and illicit drug use when Trump announced he picked him to lead the Justice Department, according to three sources familiar with the investigation. Those sources told ABC News the committee was preparing to meet this week to deliberate over whether to release a final report on the matter. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced later Wednesday that Gaetz offered his resignation from Congress effective immediately. With his resignation, the House Ethics Committee no longer has the jurisdiction to continue its investigation into him. Johnson said the resignation took him by "surprise" but that the Florida congressman did so to "start the clock" on the process for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis to call a special election to fill the vacancy. "So Matt would have done us a great service by making that decision, as he did, on the fly. And so we're grateful for that so we move forward," Johnson added. Gaetz's resignation will narrow the slim majority that Republicans will have in the new Congress in January, but he represents a reliably Republican district in the Florida Panhandle.
Trump's choice of Matt Gaetz for attorney general stuns the Justice Department — President-elect Donald Trump's choice of Matt Gaetz — a House member from Florida who was recently the target of an FBI investigation — to be the next attorney general of the United States sent shock waves through the Justice Department on Wednesday. "OMG," a current senior Justice Department official said. A second department official called the selection “truly stunning,” and a third labeled it “insane.”Gaetz, who was the subject of a federal sex trafficking investigation that ended without charges, has been a fierce Trump supporter and has regularly attacked both the Justice Department and the FBI, including calling for the FBI to be defunded and abolished.“What the f--- is happening?!” asked a senior Justice Department official, who, like others quoted in this story, spoke anonymously to candidly assess the man chosen to head their department.The official called it "laughable" that Gaetz was nominated, saying he should not be confirmed to such a critical position at a monumental juncture in history.Another Justice Department employee said, "I’m struggling to find words.""And look, he is uniquely qualified," that Justice Department official said, snarkily. "How many other prospective attorneys general had previous experience as the subject of a criminal investigation?"A current senior Justice Department official "did not see this coming," while another called it "absolutely unbelievable."Within the halls of Justice Department headquarters on Pennsylvania Avenue on Wednesday, the mood was somber, as some employees sat and processed what impact Gaetz might have on the institution, which has operated under a set of post-Watergate norms designed to prevent political bias from affecting criminal investigations.Gaetz has been particularly critical of the Justice Department's investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, which has resulted in charges against more than 1,500 Trump supporters and the convictions of more than 1,100 criminals who took part in the attack, more than 600 of whom were sentenced to periods of incarceration.On the night of Jan. 6, after the mob had been cleared from the building, Gaetz spread the conspiracy theory on the House floor that the attack had actually been orchestrated by the left-leaning group antifa.In the years after the attack, he spread conspiracy theories about Ray Epps, a Trump supporter and Jan. 6 defendant who was falsely portrayed as a government agent, as well as about the pipe bombs that were left outside the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee on the eve of the attack.Gaetz also tried to visit Jan. 6 detainees in jail and demanded the release of all of the surveillance tapes from the attack. One Jan. 6 defendant, Brandon Straka, said early last year that he was “regularly” in contact with Gaetz about the fate of those charged in relation to the Capitol attack.Once Trump takes office, Gaetz will still need to be formally nominated for the job, a position that is confirmed by the Senate. Senate Republicans expressed bafflement with the choice of Gaetz on Wednesday, though most were careful to leave the door open to him.A former senior Justice Department official, meanwhile, said in a text message Gaetz's selection "cannot be real." "Matt lacks any substance and any understanding about the way the Dept works," the former official continued. "He would be the final decision-maker on real important matters of national security and this is someone completely unprincipled.”
Even Republicans are stunned by Trump’s Gaetz Cabinet pick: ‘Absolute gut punch’ - For days, Donald Trump’s selections for top roles in his administration were hailed by traditional operators in Washington as being particularly normal. Susie Wiles as chief of staff would keep everyone in the West Wing on track. Marco Rubio would avoid causing catastrophe abroad. Former Immigration and Customs Enforcement head Tom Homan would handle the president-elect’s aggressive border agenda. And then, in the span of less than 24 hours, Trump added, one after the other, a series of Cabinet picks that were not just eyebrow-raising but fear-inducing for much of Washington — and even some within the GOP. It culminated with Trump tapping Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general on Wednesday, selecting one of the House’s top flamethrowers and grandstanders who himself has been under investigation by the chamber’s ethics committee. Trump chose former congresswoman and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard as his director of National Intelligence, and Fox News host Pete Hegseth as Defense secretary. Both Hegseth and Gabbard served in the military, though each were dark-horse selections by Trump known more for being media personalities than for their influence on national security matters. One senior Republican Hill official said the Gaetz decision was an “absolute gut punch.” Trump ally and his former political strategist Roger Stone — who posted Trump’s statement about appointing Gabbard before even Trump did — had just days ago claimed that “they won’t be able to get the clown car into the White House” with Wiles leading its operations. That appeared to no longer be the case by Wednesday, at least in the eyes of longtime party insiders and traditional operators who had hoped Trump’s claims of turning the federal government upside down were more of a wink and a nod than a real plan. It’s left much of Washington — and even some of Trump’s own allies — perplexed, and less certain than ever that the second Trump administration will be more professionalized than his first, as some had hoped after the highly disciplined campaign Wiles and co-campaign chair Chris LaCivita ran. And it’s poised to put the relationship between Trump and newly minted Senate Republican Leader John Thune to the test, with the president-elect not only pushing the body to use recess appointments to install his Cabinet and bypass normal protocols but daring them to oppose his picks. “We went from some solid picks, to some interesting wildcards, to some that are more than controversial, no way confirmable,” said Matthew Bartlett, a GOP strategist and appointee under Trump’s first administration. “This is Trump daring the U.S. Senate. This is Trump potentially usurping the U.S. Senate and going to try to put people in place through recess appointments, which could mean we’re at a Constitutional crisis from the start of Trump’s second term.”
GOP senators: Gaetz nomination to head Justice in serious trouble - Republican senators are warning that former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) nomination to serve as President-elect Trump’s attorney general is in serious trouble, even though Republicans will control 53 seats in the upper chamber next year. Gaetz will get a chance to make his case for why he should lead the Justice Department, but Republican senators warn he faces an “uphill” path to confirmation. In addition, Republican senators are supporting the call made Thursday by Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) for the House Ethics Committee to release the findings of its investigation of Gaetz for alleged sexual misconduct and illicit drug use. Two moderate Republican senators, Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine), have already expressed strong reservations about Gaetz’s nomination to serve as attorney general. Four Republicans would need to vote against Gaetz to sink his nomination, and GOP members warn he is likely to encounter resistance from other members of their conference. “He’s got an uphill climb,” Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) said when asked about Gaetz’s nomination. Other GOP sources say Gaetz’s nomination is in serious trouble. Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who has a number of friends in the Senate GOP conference, told Bloomberg Television that Gaetz won’t secure the 50 votes he needs to become attorney general. “Look, Gaetz won’t get confirmed,” he told the outlet. “Everybody knows that.” Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told The Hill that McCarthy’s dire prediction is probably spot on. “I think he’s pretty right, actually,” he said. But he said Trump’s decision to nominate Gaetz may have a strategic value that his GOP colleagues in the Senate — and political pundits — can’t understand at the moment. “Donald Trump is a savvy guy. You never know his motivations,” he said. Cramer said Gaetz is “more than capable of litigating the case for why the [Department of Justice] should be turned on its head” but added that he “just doesn’t have the moral authority” to shake up the department after being embroiled in a federal sex trafficking investigation. “I’m glad I’m not on Judiciary, put it that way,” he said, alluding to what is expected to be a fierce fight on the committee level over Gaetz.
Trump Officially Nominates Ultra-Hawk Marco Rubio for Secretary of State - President-elect Donald Trump confirmed on Wednesday that he was nominating Marco Rubio, the extremely hawkish senator from Florida, to be secretary of state in the incoming administration.Trump’s statement came two days after The New York Times reported Rubio was expected to get the job. POLITICO reported that Rubio’s nomination and the appointment of Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) as Trump’s National Security Advisor relieved Ukraine supporters in the US who were worried the incoming administration would end the proxy war.Rubio has been in the Senate since 2010 and has been about as hawkish as possible. In 2015, he was the preferred Republican presidential candidate of the neoconservatives, as he supported wreckless escalations overseas,such as the enforcement of a no-fly-zone over Syria, which risked war with Russia.During the previous Trump administration, Rubio was very influential in policies in Latin America, including the failed US-backed coup against Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in 2019. That year, Rubio tweeted a picture that showed former Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi as he was being brutally killed, suggesting Maduro could face a similar fate.More recently, Rubio has been an outspoken supporter of Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza and has called for the US to take a harder line on Iran. After Iran’s most recent missile attack on Israel, which came in response to a string of Israeli escalations, Rubio said, “I urge the reimposition of a maximum pressure campaign against Iran and fully support Israel’s right to respond disproportionately to stop this threat. The United States will continue to stand with Israel.”Last year, Rubio introduced a bill in Congress to prevent any future president from leaving NATO, which President Biden signed into law.Rubio has also built a reputation of being one of the most hardline China hawks in Congress. In 2020, China placed sanctions on Rubio in response to a series of US sanctions against officials in Hong Kong. The sanctions may bar Rubio from entering China and could complicate his role as the US’s top diplomat. In 2023, China appointed a defense minister who was under US sanctions, and the US refused to lift them.
Trump picks RFK Jr. for Health and Human Services secretary - President-elect Donald Trump said Thursday that he will nominate vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as secretary of the Health and Human Services Department. If the Senate approves Kennedy, the former independent presidential candidate will lead a sprawling department responsible for the huge Medicare and Medicaid health coverage programs, the Food and Drug Administration, the National Institutes of Health, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. HHS's decisions on sped have a major effect on the U.S. health-care system. Kennedy, 70, is the son of Robert F. Kennedy, the late U.S. attorney general and Democratic senator from New York who was assassinated in 1968 by a gunman in Los Angeles as he ran for president. He is the nephew of former President John Kennedy who was assassinated in 1963. Trump said in October that if elected he would let Kennedy "go wild on health." "I am thrilled to announce Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as The United States Secretary of Health and Human Services," Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social site Thursday. "For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health," Trump wrote. "The Safety and Health of all Americans is the most important role of any Administration, and HHS will play a big role in helping ensure that everybody will be protected from harmful chemicals, pollutants, pesticides, pharmaceutical products, and food additives that have contributed to the overwhelming Health Crisis in this Country." Kennedy told NBC News in a recent interview that Trump has said he wants Kennedy to "clean up corruption" at federal health agencies, return those agencies to science-based policies and "make America healthy again." Kennedy said that "there are entire departments, like the nutrition department at the FDA, that have to go."
Alarm Over Trump Choosing 'Extreme, Conspiratorial' RFK Jr. to Lead HHS - U.S. lawmakers, government watchdogs, and other critics responded with alarm to President-elect Donald Trump's long-anticipated announcement on Thursday that he wants Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services."Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is a clear and present danger to the nation's health," declared Public Citizen co-president Robert Weissman. "He shouldn't be allowed in the building at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), let alone be placed in charge of the nation's public health agency.""Donald Trump's bungling of public health policy during the Covid pandemic cost hundreds of thousands of lives," Weissman highlighted. "By appointing Kennedy as his secretary of HHS, Trump is courting another policy-driven public health catastrophe."The RFK Jr. decision continued a trend of Trump choosing Cabinet secretaries who have demonstrated loyalty to him, even if their qualifications are questionable. After running for president as a Democrat and then an Independent—without support from many members of his political family—Kennedy suspended his campaign andendorsed the Republican in August."RFK Jr. poses a danger to public health, scientific research, medicine, and healthcare coverage for millions."Leading up to the election last week, Trump acknowledged plans to let Kennedy "go wild on health," sparking speculation that he would let the lawyer and conspiracy theorist lead HHS, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Agriculture, Food and Drug Administration, or National Institutes of Health.Once lauded for his environmental activism, Kennedy has recently faced criticism for spreading anti-vaccine misinformation, downplaying the climate emergency, and opposing a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip. There have also been revelations about a brain worm, a dead baby bear, awhale head, a reported affair with a journalist, and an alleged sexual assault of a babysitter.Trump—who is known for his love of McDonald's—said in his statement about RFK Jr. that "for too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health.""The Safety and Health of all Americans is the most important role of any Administration, and HHS will play a big role in helping ensure that everybody will be protected from harmful chemicals, pollutants, pesticides, pharmaceutical products, and food additives that have contributed to the overwhelming Health Crisis in this Country," Trump continued. "Mr. Kennedy will restore these Agencies to the traditions of Gold Standard Scientific Research, and beacons of Transparency, to end the Chronic Disease epidemic, and to Make America Great and Healthy Again!"
Now what for public health? - by Katelyn Jetelina - Your Local Epidemiologist -- The U.S. election sent shock waves through the field of public health—not just domestically, but internationally as well. For many in public health, like me, the prospect of national leadership by individuals with an established track record of ignoring the evidence is deeply disconcerting. This has led to anxiety (and even feelings of loss and sadness). So much is unknown about the future of this field—from policies like routine vaccinations, to the impact of falsehoods moving mainstream, to the resources available to hold up an “invisible shield” for the public’s health. What is becoming increasingly clear is that we are entering a new world. As we put one foot in front of another, we must remember there’s a difference between what we can and can’t change, and sometimes, there’s a difference between what is easy and what is needed. While we in public health are all too familiar with the cycle of panic and neglect, this terrain is different. The leadership choices are categorically unreliable for scientific narrative. RFK Jr. will have more influence with his cast of characters, who have a history of opposing evidence-based public health practice. For example, RFK Jr. founded Children’s Health Defense, a well-oiled machine responsible for 1 in 4 low-credibility Tweets during the pandemic, leading to a large profit. His influence also led to a Samoa outbreak of measles that caused more than 80 deaths, mostly among children. Similarly, the Washington Post reported that Joseph Ladapo—the Florida Surgeon General—is on the shortlist for the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Although a doctor, he has a well-documented history of falsehoods about Covid-19 vaccines and went against the standard of practice guidelines for a measles outbreak at a Florida school. Leadership matters. Ineffective or dangerous health policy decisions can be driven by mixing reasonable ideas with falsehoods and/or not accurately identifying what is causing us to be unhealthy and “fixing” that. For example, RFK Jr. said his first move would be removing fluoride from water—this is not grounded in scientific evidence, and reflects a fundamental misunderstanding between a hazard (that something could potentially cause harm) and a risk (the probability of something happening). Importantly, all of this unfolds after 5 years of public health being through the wringer. And, in an already shifting landscape: general amnesia of vaccine-preventable diseases, loss of trust in institutions, and a changing information landscape fueled by social media. This has led to policies like the following:
- Last month, 6 counties in Idaho outright banned the availability of Covid-19 vaccines.
- Texas doesn’t allow public health departments to educate about Covid-19 vaccines.
- Missouri has removed the ability for public health departments to report data to WHO (and thus, CDC).
We will all overcome this together, and we will do so through thoughtful and clear communication. For individuals, this will mean consuming information with a healthy skepticism. For trusted messengers, like physicians, faith-based communities, and businesses, your jobs are more critical than ever. For institutions, this means we need your courage to protect those who are speaking truth. For public health leaders, it’s time to be proactive. How we navigate this changing landscape will matter if we want to ensure that public health is still guided by values that are important to all of us. This does not mean surrendering our mission but rather finding balance.For public health (and all of us), this means:
- Building bridges instead of manning the barricades by finding common ground, which requires active engagement and humility. (It always helps me focus on one fact: No one wants to die. Then I move from there.)
- Recognizing what you say matters. That is, if you want people to hear you. Through literally the words we use, the framing, and the approach.
- Communicate with empathy, as anger and shame will only drive people further away.
- Listening (not simply hearing) so we can respond better to the needs on the ground. Americans need their questions answered, not to be told what to believe.
- Making strategic choices about which battles to fight, at what time, and at what level of government. Political capital is as scarce as financial resources—and needs to be allocated carefully.
I think our biggest challenge will be fighting for the truth. In this new world, there is a good chance that falsehoods and rumors will be broadcast from the most powerful office in the nation. This will drive even more confusion, anxiety, and questions that will have a direct, negative impact on Americans who genuinely have questions and are interested in making evidence-based health decisions. We need to elevate reliable narrators to provide a counterweight. Unfortunately, voices that provide unbiased, evidence-based information are increasingly vulnerable, have limited capacity, and are in a fragmented world. Some Good Samaritans are holding up the front lines of science communication, but only with band-aids, hope, and very limited funding (if at all). We are entering an uncertain and unfamiliar public health world. We must adapt effectively while keeping true to our mission—to protect the public’s health—as our North Star. One thing is for certain: The entire YLE team will keep showing up. We will continue sharing accurate, honest, and reliable public health information regardless of politics. And we will still be here to empower you all to make evidence-based decisions to keep yourselves and your loved ones healthy. That won’t change.
Scientists Fear What’s Next for Public Health if RFK Jr. Is Allowed To ‘Go Wild’ - Many scientists at the federal health agencies await the second Donald Trump administration with dread as well as uncertainty over how the president-elect will reconcile starkly different philosophies among the leaders of his team. Trump announced Thursday he’ll nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be secretary of the Health and Human Services Department, after saying during his campaign he’d let the anti-vaccine activist “go wild” on medicines, food, and health. Should Kennedy win Senate confirmation, his critics say a radical antiestablishment medical movement with roots in past centuries would take power, threatening the achievements of a science-based public health order painstakingly built since World War II. Trump said in a post on the social platform X that “Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” echoing Kennedy’s complaints about the medical establishment. The former Democratic presidential candidate will “end the Chronic Disease epidemic” and “Make American Great and Healthy Again!” Trump wrote. Vaccine makers’ stocks dipped Thursday afternoon amid news reports ahead of Trump’s RFK announcement. If Kennedy makes good on his vision for transforming public health, childhood vaccine mandates could wither. New vaccines might never win approval, even as the FDA allows dangerous or inefficient therapies onto the market. Agency websites could trumpet unproven or debunked health ideas. And if Trump’s plan to weaken civil service rights goes through, anyone who questions these decisions could be summarily fired. “Never has anybody like RFK Jr. gotten anywhere close to the position he may be in to actually shape policy,” said Lewis Grossman, a law professor at American University and the author of “Choose Your Medicine,” a history of U.S. public health. Kennedy and an adviser Calley Means, a health care entrepreneur, say dramatic changes are needed because of the high levels of chronic disease in the United States. Government agencies have corruptly tolerated or promoted unhealthy diets and dangerous drugs and vaccines, they say. Means and Kennedy did not respond to requests for comment. Four conservative members of the first Trump health bureaucracy spoke on condition of anonymity. They eagerly welcomed the former president’s return but voiced few opinions about specific policies. Days after last week’s election, RFK Jr. announced that the Trump administration would immediately fire and replace 600 National Institutes of Health officials. He set up a website seeking crowdsourced nominees for federal appointments, with a host of vaccination foes and chiropractors among the early favorites. At meetings last week at Mar-a-Lago involving Elon Musk, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Kennedy, and Means, according to Politico, some candidates for leading health posts included Jay Bhattacharya, a Stanford University scientist who opposed covid lockdowns; Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo, who opposes mRNA covid vaccines and rejected well-established disease control practices during a measles outbreak; Johns Hopkins University surgeon Marty Makary; and Means’ sister, Stanford-trained surgeon and health guru Casey Means. All are mavericks of a sort, though their ideas are not uniform. Yet the notion that they could elbow aside a century of science-based health policy is profoundly troubling to many health professionals. They see Kennedy’s presence at the heart of the Trump transition as a triumph of the “medical freedom” movement, which arose in opposition to the Progressive Era idea that experts should guide health care policy and practices. It could represent a turning away from the expectation that mainstream doctors be respected for their specialized knowledge, said Howard Markel, an emeritus professor of pediatrics and history at the University of Michigan, who began his clinical career treating AIDS patients and ended it after suffering a yearlong bout of long covid. “We’ve gone back to the idea of ‘every man his own doctor,’” he said, referring to a phrase that gained currency in the 19th century. It was a bad idea then and it’s even worse now, he said. “What does that do to the morale of scientists?” Markel asked. The public health agencies, largely a post-WWII legacy, are “remarkable institutions, but you can screw up these systems, not just by defunding them but by deflating the true patriots who work in them.” FDA Commissioner Robert Califf told a conference on Nov. 12 that he worried about mass firings at the FDA. “I’m biased, but I feel like the FDA is sort of at peak performance right now,” he said. At a conference the next day, CDC Director Mandy Cohen reminded listeners of the horrors of vaccine-preventable diseases like measles and polio. “I don’t want to have to see us go backward in order to remind ourselves that vaccines work,” she said. Stocks of some the biggest vaccine developers fell after news outlets led by Politico reported that the RFK pick was expected. Moderna, the developer of one of the most popular covid-19 vaccines, closed down 5.6%. Pfizer, another covid vaccine manufacturer, fell 2.6%. GSK, the producer of vaccines protecting against respiratory syncytial virus, hepatitis A and B, rotavirus, and influenza, fell just over 2%. French drug company Sanofi, whose website boasts its products vaccinate over 500 million annually, tumbled nearly 3.5%. With uncertainty over the direction of their agencies, many older scientists at the NIH, FDA, and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are considering retirement, said a senior NIH scientist who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of losing his job. “Everybody I talk to sort of takes a deep breath and says, ‘It doesn’t look good,’” the official said. “I hear of many people getting CVs ready,” said Arthur Caplan, a professor of bioethics at New York University. They include two of his former students who now work at the FDA, Caplan said. Others, such as Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, have voiced wait-and-see attitudes. “We worked with the Trump administration last time. There were times things worked reasonably well,” he said, “and times when things were chaotic, particularly during covid.” Any wholesale deregulation efforts in public health would be politically risky for Trump, he said, because when administrations “screw things up, people get sick and die.”
Trump taps dark horse Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence - President-elect Donald Trump has tapped Tulsi Gabbard to serve as his director of national intelligence, a shock move that would place an intelligence novice some see as sympathetic to Moscow in charge of the country’s $70 billion spy apparatus.The former Democratic representative from Hawaii quit the party in late 2022 and later became a fixture in conservative media. She endorsed Trump in August, and campaigned for him in the run-up to the November election.“I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our Intelligence Community, championing our Constitutional Rights, and securing Peace through Strength,” Trump said in a statement Wednesday.The selection of Gabbard is sure to provoke opposition in the Senate. She not only lacks experience in intelligence matters, but has opposed U.S. interventions in Ukraine and Syria — while at times suggesting the U.S. provoked Russia into aggressive policies.A former member of the Hawaii National Guard, Gabbard, 43, served in Congress as a Democrat from 2013 to 2021, and even launched a failed bid for president in 2020.Her dovish views on Russia and her criticism of U.S. interventions in the Middle East, most notably in Syria, brought her into conflict with foreign policy leaders in both parties. But it was disputes over core domestic issues — including public health, education and free speech — that led her to quit the Democratic party.Gabbard’s nomination follows on the heels of another surprise pick of a media personality by Trump: Fox News host Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary.Hegseth, Gabbard and some of Trump’s other picks for his national security team share at least two things in common: combat experience in foreign wars — and an anti-establishment streak that Trump allies view as necessary to reforming a wooden federal bureaucracy that has failed everyday Americans.In her time with the Hawaii National Guard, Gabbard deployed to Kuwait and Iraq, where she has said she built her skepticism of American wars abroad.In Congress, she adopted a strident brand of anti-interventionism that pushed her to the fringes of Beltway foreign policy.She opposed U.S. intervention in the Syrian Civil War, and later took a secret trip to meet Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, whom she has said “is not the enemy of the United States.”Just three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Gabbard posted a video on X calling on Moscow, Washington and Kyiv to “put geopolitics aside” and for Ukraine remain neutral. She later said the war could have been avoided if President Joe Biden and other leaders had guaranteed Kyiv would not become part of NATO.
Trump Picks Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence - President-elect Donald Trump announced Wednesday that he selected former Hawaii Congresswoman Lt. Col. Tulsi Gabbard to be his Director of National Intelligence (DNI).Gabbard, a member of the National Guard, was in Congress from 2013-2021. A former Democrat, she recently announced she was joining the Republican party and endorsed Trump in his race against Vice President Kamala Harris.Gabbard has been an opponent of US involvement in the Ukraine war since Russia launched its invasion. “This war and suffering could have easily been avoided if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean US/NATO forces right on Russia’s border,” she wrote on X on February 23, 2022.During a presidential run in 2020, Gabbard made opposing “regime change wars” central to her campaign. She staunchly opposed US involvement in Syria and made a trip to the country in 2017 to go on a fact-finding mission. While in Syria, she met with President Bashar al-Assad, enraging hawks in Washington.Gabbard also made clear during her campaign that while she opposed regime change wars, she was a hawk when it came to the war on terror. “When it comes to the war against terrorists, I’m a hawk,” she said in 2016. “When it comes to counterproductive wars of regime change, I’m a dove.”Gabbard has repeatedly claimed that “Islamism” is the “greatest threat” facing the US. She recently said Hamas’s October 7 attack on southern Israel was a “stark reminder of the ongoing short and long-term threat of Islamist terrorism that continues to spread around the world today. Their goal is to establish a global Islamist caliphate, where all must live under their sharia law.”In the wake of October 7, 2023, Gabbard said the US must “stand with Israel.” She has also smeared members of Congress who have called Israel’s actions in Gaza genocidal as “apologists and supporters of Islamist Hamas terrorists.”During her time in Congress, Gabbard was a staunch critic of Trump’s foreign policy, calling him “Saudi Arabia’s bitch” and strongly opposing his support for the brutal Saudi/UAE war on Yemen, which she called “genocidal.” She also opposed Trump’s escalations against Iran.One of Gabbard’s last acts in Congress was the introduction of a bill that would have prohibited funding to enforce sanctions that inflict suffering on civilian populations.
‘Left turn and off the bridge’: Trump’s spy pick stuns intel world - Donald Trump was expected to pick an outsider to lead the U.S. intelligence community. He exceeded expectations by choosing Tulsi Gabbard. The former Democratic member of Congress from Hawaii has many critics and no formal intelligence experience. She’s known chiefly for her opposition to American wars abroad — and sympathetic views on autocrats like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. The president-elect’s announcement of her nomination as Director of National Intelligence stunned members of Congress, along with current and former members of the intelligence community. One senior former intelligence official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the pick, described the choice as “left turn and off the bridge.” The surprise choice nonetheless came as something of a relief to those who feared Trump might nominate the combative former diplomat Ric Grenell, who briefly served as acting DNI in his first administration. It will also almost certainly face headwinds when it comes time for her Senate confirmation hearings. “I have a lot of questions,” Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), the chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, told reporters after the pick was announced. Gabbard, 43, left the Democratic Party in 2022 and became a favorite of conservative media. She endorsed Trump this August and later appeared on the campaign trail with him. Her foreign policy views have frequently put her firmly outside the mainstream of U.S. national security experts in both parties. Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, she posted a video on X calling on Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv to “put geopolitics aside.” She later said the war could have been avoided if the West had guaranteed that Ukraine would never become part of NATO. Gabbard served 17 years in the Hawaii National Guard and subsequently joined an Army reserve unit. She has deployed to the Horn of Africa, Kuwait and Iraq, and she has said those experiences nurtured a deep skepticism of U.S. interventionism.
Trump Taps Fossil Fuel Ally Lee Zeldin to Head EPA, Push “Anti-Environmental Agenda” | Democracy Now! (interview and transcript) Environmental defenders are raising alarm over Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, former New York Congressmember Lee Zeldin, who has a history of opposing critical environmental protections and clean energy job investments. Zeldin’s nomination comes as Trump is reportedly discussing moving the EPAheadquarters outside of Washington, D.C., which could lead to an exodus of staff and expertise from the agency. “I really don’t think this is about government efficiency. I think this is about terrorizing the career staff,” says Judith Enck, who served as a regional administrator of the EPA in the Obama administration. This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
- AMY GOODMAN: As Donald Trump quickly moves to name his Cabinet, we turn now to look at his pick to head the Environmental Protection Agency, former New York Congressmember Lee Zeldin. The Long Island Republican served four terms in the House, where he earned a score of just 14 out of 100 from the League of Conservation Voters, after consistently voting against critical environmental protections and clean energy job investments. Zeldin’s nomination came after The New York Times reported Trump’s transition team is discussing moving the EPA headquarters outside D.C. Nate James of the American Federation of Government Employees told Politico many career EPAofficials would leave the agency if it moves, adding, “it could be advertised as a relocation, but really it would be decapitation.” We go now to Judith Enck, who served as EPA regional administrator under President Obama, now president of Beyond Plastics. We’re speaking to her outside Albany. Hi, Judith. Can you talk about, as both a former EPA administrator and a person from New York, where Lee Zeldin was a congressmember for years — talk about what a Zeldin heading the EPA looks like.
- JUDITH ENCK: Well, Lee Zeldin at the helm of EPA will be a wonderful tenure for fossil fuel companies, plastics companies, chemical companies. But it’s going to be really bad for people who want to breathe clean air, drink water that doesn’t have toxic chemicals or lead in it. And I’m particularly concerned about what a Zeldin EPA would mean for environmental justice communities, places like Cancer Alley in Louisiana, places like Appalachia and Texas, where there’s a concentration of petrochemical facilities, and today there is not enough environmental protections in place. I’m glad you mentioned Lee Zeldin’s tenure in Congress, where he had the not very impressive score of 14% voting record when he was in Congress. But let’s go back even further. Some people don’t know that Lee Zeldin was a state senator in Albany. And his record was so bad that a statewide environmental group gave him the distinguished 2011 Oil Slick Award. And he earned that Oil Slick Award because he introduced bills that would have, for instance, reduced funding for mass transit, provide dirty water in his Long Island district. And he just really stood out when he was in Albany, and then he took that environmental perspective to Washington, where his record was equally bad.
How Much Damage Can Lee Zeldin Do at the EPA? Donald Trump has named his pick to run the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin, who was the U.S. representative for New York’s 1st congressional district from 2015 to 2023. What does that tell us about what lies ahead? The first thing to know is that Zeldin is about as natural a pick for EPA head as Martha Stewart would be for machinist’s mate on a nuclear submarine.When Zeldin ran against Kathy Hochul for New York governor in 2022, he campaigned primarily on law and order, along with tax and regulation slashing, “ending all Covid-19 mandates,” and parents’ rights. He also has a long record opposing gay marriage and abortion. His environmental bona fides are mostly limited to having held an annual “Teach a Kid to Fish” day as a state senator and having been a member of minor congressional caucuses such as the Climate Solutions Caucus, the Congressional Estuary Caucus, and the somewhat questionable enterprise known as the Conservative Climate Caucus.According to one Long Island politics expert I spoke to, Zeldin probably joined these caucuses just to appear responsive to voter concerns, given that Long Island Sound pollution is a big issue in Zeldin’s former district. The memberships did not translate to pro-environmental votes: Zeldin voted to cut EPA funding, scrap its chemicals risk assessment program, and block the agency from taking action to restrict carbon pollution. He missed the 2017 vote on whether to defund the EPA’s criminal law enforcement program but voted to prohibit funds from being used for this purpose the prior year. The League of Conservation Voters gives Zeldin a lifetime score of 14 percent.Zeldin is getting this job not because he’s interested in or qualified on environmental issues but because he’s a loyalist: He was one of Trump’sstaunchest defenders in the first impeachment probe and one of four New York representatives to vote against certifying the 2020 election. At the Republican National Convention this summer, Zeldin sat in Trump’s own VIP box alongside members of Trump’s family and other cronies, only two seats away from the candidate.“We will restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI,” Zeldin promised on Monday—as if he’d been named energy or commerce secretary instead of EPA administrator. “We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water,” he added.Unsurprisingly, environmental groups’ reactions to the pick have ranged from skeptical to outraged. On the one hand, it would be hard for Trump to do worse than his first EPA pick, Scott Pruitt, who was hired based on his experience relentlessly suing the EPA as Oklahoma’s attorney general. Pruitt resigned in 2018 amid an avalanche of ethics scandals that overshadowed even his abysmal policy proposals—likeblocking the EPA from using public health research to show that pollution hurts people, repealing the Clean Power Plan, loosening fuel emissions standards, and much more. And Andrew Wheeler, who took over after Pruitt’s departure, was a former coal lobbyist.On the other hand, the installation of a diehard Trump loyalist with little apparent agenda of his own suggests that the EPA is about to do precisely what Trump and his allies have been unusually explicit this time in promising it will do: please oil executives and, in former Interior Secretary David Bernhardt’s words, “rescind every one of Joe Biden’s industry-killing, job-killing, pro-China and anti-American electricity regulations.” (Biden was distinctly anti-China, and the oil industry kind of liked him—to climate activists’ chagrin—but whatever.) That’s in addition to likely decimating EPA staff, which the Biden administration had worked hard to rebuild after the last exodus.
Trump assembles cabinet of fascist repression and imperialist war -- In a rapid-fire series of appointments and announcements, fascist President-elect Donald Trump is assembling an administration in his own image. There are only two criteria for the nominees so far announced: complete alignment with the fascist policies Trump seeks to put into place and unquestioning personal loyalty to the would-be dictator. January 20, 2025 will thus mean not merely the re-entry of the former president into the White House but the installation of a regime with his aides and stooges in charge of all the levers of power, committed to using these powers against all domestic opposition from the American people and against whatever countries Trump chooses to target for subversion, blockade or open warfare. As Trump prepares to rapidly implement his plans, the Biden administration, which is in power for another two months, is doing absolutely nothing to alert the population, let alone take measures to stop the massive assault on democratic rights. Biden, who is welcoming Trump to the White House on Wednesday, is acting as if it is his responsibility not only to guarantee Trump’s succession but to help implement his policies. The contours of the new Trump-led regime are demonstrated in the nominations made public or leaked to the media over the past three days. Nearly all of Trump’s top national security appointments have been made public:
- For secretary of state, US Senator Marco Rubio of Florida
- For national security advisor, Representative Michael Waltz, also of Florida
- For Ambassador to the United Nations, Representative Elise Stefanik of New York
- For CIA director, former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, a Republican congressman from Texas before he joined the first Trump administration
- For secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, former head of the ultra-right Concerned Veterans of America (funded by the Koch Brothers) and longtime co-host of the Fox News program “Fox & Friends”
From a policy standpoint, all are fervent advocates of confrontation with China and giving the US military a “free hand” in any open conflict: opposing any restrictions on the use of violence against targeted populations, including civilians and children. This is particularly apparent in the surprise selection of Hegseth, who went unmentioned in media speculation about Trump’s potential pick to head the Pentagon. Now a major in the Army Reserve, Hegseth deployed to the US military base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba during the Bush administration’s “war on terror,” then volunteered for the war in Iraq, where he commanded platoons in Baghdad and Samarra. He later served as a counterinsurgency instructor for the Army in Kabul, Afghanistan. Having previously led groups of 50 to 100 soldiers, Hegseth is now being tasked to run the Pentagon, the largest military organization in the world, with 3.5 million people, including 2.1 million active duty and reserve soldiers, 750,000 civilian staff and 650,000 contractors. His qualification, however, is his role as an advocate for military war criminals. In 2019, while on the “Fox & Friends” talkshow, the ultra-right program of which Trump is an avid viewer, Hegseth led a campaign for the exoneration of three soldiers convicted or awaiting trial before military courts for war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan. The crimes included the summary execution of unarmed prisoners and the murder of children and old men. After meeting with Trump, Hegseth summarized the president’s approach as follows: “The benefit of the doubt should go to the guys pulling the trigger.” Trump issued pardons, called each murderer personally to commiserate with the “injustice” done to them, and boasted publicly of overriding the decisions of top military commanders, who had felt it necessary to mount a few token prosecutions to offset revelations of the avalanche of atrocities committed by US forces in both wars. This will be the administration’s approach, not just to individual soldiers who commit war crimes but to policies that require war crimes for their implementation. The incoming president signaled this by announcing the appointment of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee as US Ambassador to Israel. Huckabee is a Christian fundamentalist, who has provided religious justification for the crimes committed by the state of Israel, declaring in the past, “There’s really no such thing as a Palestinian.” He is an all-out supporter of the genocidal policies of the Netanyahu government, which seeks to make “no such thing as a Palestinian” a brutal reality. The other group of nominees announced this week will be tasked with carrying out Trump’s planned war at home, which involves the rounding up of millions of undocumented immigrants, imprisoning them in concentration camps and deporting them as quickly as possible. The principal perpetrators of this dictatorial policy include:
- For “border czar,” a new White House position, Thomas Homan, the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement in the first Trump administration and a longtime advocate and defender of mass deportations
- For deputy White House chief of staff for policy, Stephen Miller, who was responsible for immigration policy in the first Trump administration. Miller spearheaded such measures as the separation of children and families, mass detention, and the “Remain in Mexico program,” which effectively blocked asylum seekers
- For secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. The Republican governor, a one-time hopeful to become Trump’s running mate, is a vehement advocate of violence against migrants crossing the US-Mexico border, once sending dozens of South Dakota National Guard troops to Texas at the request of that state’s governor. She will be in overall charge of repressive agencies, such as the Border Patrol, Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Secret Service
The regime that Trump and Miller are devising and that Homan and Noem will enforce will make the detention camps used against Japanese Americans during World War II look like child’s play. According to Homan, the problem of separating children and their parents, which aroused fierce popular opposition during Trump’s first term, will be solved by deporting entire families, whether or not some of the family members are American citizens. Trump aides were already reportedly drafting executive orders that he will sign on January 20, 2025, as soon as he is inaugurated, to establish a terror regime directed against migrants. This will include revoking Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of immigrants from Haiti and Central America, many of them longtime residents of the United States with American citizen children. The incoming administration plans to use military resources in the anti-migrant campaign, meaning that migrants could be detained by military personnel on military bases, and that military flights could become a major factor in transporting migrants to their countries of origin or other countries willing to accept them.
What are recess appointments and how could Trump use them to fill his Cabinet? (AP) — As President-elect Donald Trump moves to set up a more forceful presidency than in his first term, he is choosing loyalists for his Cabinet and considering a tool known as recess appointments to skip over Senate confirmations for even some of the most powerful positions in U.S. government.Trump over the weekend demanded that Republican leaders in the Senate, who will hold a majority in the chamber next year, agree to allow recess appointments. It would be a significant shift in power away from the Senate, but Trump is returning to Washington with almost total support from his party, including the more traditional Republicans who still hold sway in the chamber.Their commitment, however, is being tested now that Trump has turned to picked people outside the Republican Party mainstream like former Reps. Matt Gaetz of Florida and Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii for top positions.It quickly became apparent Wednesday that figures like Gaetz, who Trump announced as his choice for attorney general, may struggle to gain majority support from the Senate, even though Republicans will enjoy a 53-seat majority. But that may not matter if Trump is able to use recess appointments.The Senate, as set up by the U.S. Constitution, holds an important role in confirming — or rejecting — high-level officials like Cabinet positions, judges and ambassadors. It’s part of the government’s checks and balances that ensures the president does not get to unilaterally rule. However, there is a clause in the Constitution that allows presidents to fill out their administrations while the Senate is in recess.During the nation’s early history, Congress would take months-long breaks from Washington, and presidents could use recess appointments to avoid having an important job go unfilled. But more recently, the process of recess appointments has been featured in partisan fights with the president.President Bill Clinton made 139 recess appointments and President George W. Bush made 171, though neither used the process for top-level Cabinet positions, according to the Congressional Research Service. President Barack Obama tried to continue the practice, using it 32 times, but a2014 Supreme Court ruling put a check on the president’s power to make recess appointments.The Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the Senate has to recess or adjourn for 10 days before a president can make unilateral appointments. That’s resulted in a practice where the Senate — even during weeks-long breaks from Washington — still holds pro-forma sessions where one senator opens and closes the chamber, but no legislative business is conducted.The House also holds some power over recess appointments by refusing to allow the Senate to adjourn.Trump envisions becoming a president who is much stronger and forceful than perhaps any before him.While still president in 2020, Trump threatened to use recess appointments after Democrats had slowed the Senate from confirming his nominees. He threatened to use a presidential power in the Constitution to adjourn both chambers of Congress on “extraordinary occasions” and when there is a disagreement between the House and Senate on adjourning.When Trump becomes president again next year, he will be working with Republicans who hold a majority in the House and Senate and are promising to back his agenda. But the demand for recess appointments allows Trump to flex his political power and potentially ram through even the most controversial choices for his administration.Sen. John Thune, who was elected as the next Senate majority leader this week, is pledging to keep “an aggressive schedule until his nominees are confirmed.” Thune, a South Dakota Republican, is also not taking recess appointments off the table.To allow Trump to make the appointments, Republican senators would have to pass a motion of adjournment with a simple majority vote, though Democrats would likely do everything in their power to prevent it. It is also not clear if such a move would be fully supported by GOP senators.
GOP leaders fear Donald Trump's administration picks may narrow House majority -House Republican leaders facing another razor-thin majority in the upcoming Congress are hoping President-elect Trump will not tap any more House GOP members for positions in his administration. Trump has already picked Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) for national security adviser. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said Tuesday that he does not “expect” Trump to nominate more members for administration positions. “But I’ll leave that up to him,” the Speaker added. It’s unclear what the GOP majority will be in the House next year, but it is sure to be narrow. Decision Desk HQ has projected GOP victories in 219 House seats and Democratic victories in 210, with six seats still to be called — three in which the GOP candidate currently leads, and three in which a Democrat has the edge. Stefanik and Waltz will both have to resign their seats to assume their administration roles, at which point Johnson will be dealing with two vacancies and a smaller majority. Replacing both could take months. In the fractious GOP conference, in which members have frequently broken ranks to hold up legislative activity or stage protests, those two votes could make a big difference in what kind of partisan legislation can get to Trump’s desk. Johnson said Trump is “fully aware” of the dynamics and “appreciates” the “numbers game.” “President Trump and I have talked about this multiple times a day for the last several days,” Johnson said. “We have an embarrassment of riches. We have a really talented Republican conference; we’ve got really competent, capable people here. Many of them can serve in really important positions in the new administration.” “But President Trump fully understands and appreciates the math here, and it’s just a numbers game,” he added. “We believe we’re going to have a larger majority than we had last time — it’s too early to handicap it, but we’re optimistic about that. But every single vote will count, because if someone gets ill or has a car accident or a late flight on their plane, then it affects the votes on the floor. So I think he and the administration are well in-tune to that.” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) similarly complimented Trump’s Cabinet nominations, saying he’s “making really good, smart picks,” but added that he hopes the president-elect does not select more members of the House GOP conference. “He’s already pulled a few really talented people out of the House. Hopefully no more until special elections can come,” he said. The hopeful optimism comes as a number of other House Republicans remain on shortlists for various Cabinet positions. Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), for example, is under consideration for Defense secretary, according to Politico; Rep. Sam Graves (R-Mo.) said he is in the mix for Transportation secretary, Missourinet reported; and Rep. Glenn Thompson (R-Pa.) is being discussed for Agriculture secretary, according to Politico. It will take a while to fill the vacancies left by Stefanik and Waltz, though there is more flexibility in Florida’s special election timeline than in New York’s. Stefanik’s position requires Senate confirmation, while Waltz’s does not. In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has to announce a special election within 10 days of Stefnanik stepping down from her 21st Congressional District seat, and that election will have to take place between 70-80 days after the announcement. It remains unclear when Stefanik will officially relinquish her seat, however. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will set the timeline for the special election to fill Waltz’s seat in Florida’s 6th District, and has wide discretion in determining that timeline.
Trump names Karoline Leavitt as youngest ever White House press secretary — President-elect Donald Trump on Friday named Karoline Leavitt, his campaign press secretary, to serve as his White House press secretary.Leavitt, 27, currently a spokesperson for Trump's transition, would be the youngest White House press secretary in history. Previously that distinction went to Ronald Ziegler, who was 29 when he took the position in 1969 in Richard Nixon’s administration.“Karoline Leavitt did a phenomenal job as the National Press Secretary on my Historic Campaign, and I am pleased to announce she will serve as White House Press Secretary,” Trump said in a statement. "Karoline is smart, tough, and has proven to be a highly effective communicator. I have the utmost confidence she will excel at the podium, and help deliver our message to the American People as we Make America Great Again.”Leavitt replied in a post on X, formerly Twitter: “Thank you, President Trump, for believing in me. I am humbled and honored. Let's MAGA,” the acronym for “Make America Great Again.”The White House press secretary typically serves as the public face of the administration and historically has held daily briefings for the press corps.Trump disrupted those norms in his first term, preferring to serve as his own chief spokesperson. While he was president from 2017 to 2021, Trump had four press secretaries but frequently preferred to engage directly with the public, from his rallies, social media posts and his own briefings.At a news conference this past August, Trump was asked if he’d have regular press briefings in his new administration. He told reporters, “I will give you total access and you’ll have a lot of press briefings and you’ll have, uh, from me.”When it came to a press secretary, he said: “Probably they’ll do something. If it’s not daily, it’s going to be a lot. You’ll have more than you want.”Leavitt, a New Hampshire native, is seen as a staunch and camera-ready advocate for Trump who is quick on her feet and delivers aggressive defenses of the Republican in television interviews.She worked as a spokesperson for MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting Trump, before joining his 2024 campaign. In 2022,she ran for Congress in New Hampshire, winning a 10-way Republican primary before losing to incumbent Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas.During Trump’s first term in office, Leavitt worked in the White House press office. She then became communications director for New York Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, whom Trump has tapped to serve as his U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Musk backs Lutnick over Bessent as Trump’s Treasury secretary -Billionaire tech mogul Elon Musk threw his support behind Howard Lutnick, chair and CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, over Scott Bessent, founder of Key Square Group, as Treasury secretary in the next Trump administration in a post on the social platform X on Saturday.“My view fwiw is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice, whereas @howardlutnick will actually enact change. Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt, so we need change one way or another,” Musk wrote in the post.Musk’s post comes as President-elect Trump has been making appointments and nominations for his second administration, even giving Musk a leadership role alongside entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy at the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an advisory panel working outside the government to “dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies,” Trump said in a statement.Whomever Trump picks as Treasury secretary will take leading roles in cementing his 2017 tax law, impose aggressive new tariffs and run point on a major shift in economic policy.Bessent has been open about his support of Trump’s plans for deregulation and energy independence. The president-elect called Bessent “one of the most brilliant men on Wall Street” at a rally in August. Trump pulled the investor on stage at the event, where he expressed confidence in Trump’s chances at reelection.Some of Trump’s advisers have been reportedly critical of Bessent, suggesting that he has been insufficiently supportive of the president-elect’s tariff policies, according to Politico.Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), in contrast to Musk, backed Bessent, saying the former economic adviser on the Trump campaign would be an “outstanding” choice.“I think he’d be outstanding. He’s from South Carolina, I know him well, he’s highly qualified,” Graham told news outlet Semafor on Thursday.
Trump says no room for Jamie Dimon in new administration -- President-elect Donald Trump ruled out giving a post to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Jamie Dimon in his second-term administration in a jab at the prominent Wall Street chief executive officer. The president-elect had previously said he would consider JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon for Treasury secretary but later disavowed that statement.
Trump names Interior-designee Doug Burgum to head new White House council on energy (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump announced Friday that North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, his choice to head the Interior Department, will also lead a newly created National Energy Council that will seek to establish U.S. “energy dominance” around the world. Burgum, in his new role, will oversee a panel that crosses all executive branch agencies involved in energy permitting, production, generation, distribution, regulation and transportation, Trump said in a statement. As chairman of the National Energy Council, Burgum will have a seat on the National Security Council, Trump said. “This Council will oversee the path to U.S. ENERGY DOMINANCE by cutting red tape, enhancing private sector investments across all sectors of the Economy, and by focusing on INNOVATION over longstanding, but totally unnecessary, regulation,” Trump wrote. The Republican president-elect accused the “radical left” of engaging in a war on American energy, in the name of fighting climate change. His policy of energy dominance, which he also espoused during his first term, will allow the U.S. to sell oil, gas and other forms of energy to European allies, making the world safer, Trump said. Trump’s policies, if adopted, would represent a near-complete reversal from actions pursued by Democratic President Joe Biden, who has made fighting climate change a top priority and has pushed for more electric vehicles and stricter regulation of carbon pollution from coal-fired power plants. Trump has pledged to rescind unspent funds in Biden’s landmark climate and health care bill and stop offshore wind development when he returns to the White House in January.
Trump taps fracking magnate Chris Wright as energy secretary - US President-elect Donald Trump nominated fracking magnate and climate change skeptic Chris Wright as energy secretary on Saturday, tasking him with “cutting red tape” which the new administration hopes will drive investment in fossil fuels.“As Secretary of Energy, Chris will be a key leader, driving innovation, cutting red tape, and ushering in a new ‘Golden Age of American Prosperity and Global Peace,'” Trump said in a statement.Wright is founder of Liberty Energy, which serves the energy companies that have massively increased US fossil fuel production in recent years by extracting oil and gas from shale fields in a process known as “fracking.”In a LinkedIn post a year ago, Wright denied that there was a “climate crisis.”“There is no climate crisis and we are not in the midst of an energy transition either,” he said, adding that “the term carbon pollution is outrageous” because all life depended on carbon dioxide.“There is no such thing as clean energy or dirty energy, all energy sources have impacts on the world both positive and negative,” he added. Trump called him “one of the pioneers who helped launch the American Shale Revolution that fueled American Energy Independence, and transformed the Global Energy Markets and Geopolitics.”
Shellshocked Dems return to Capitol to reckon with drubbing --House Democrats returned to the Capitol on Tuesday, dejected and licking their wounds after an election drubbing a week earlier that will put Donald Trump back in the White House and Republicans in control of all the levers of power in Washington next year. While Democrats in the lower chamber outperformed Vice President Harris at the polls — a dynamic that will leave Republicans with another razor-thin majority in the 119th Congress — that moral victory was a dim consolation for a party that had hinged its campaign on warnings that Trump posed a material threat to America’s foundational democratic traditions. Faced with Trump’s runaway victory for a second term in the White House, Democrats are now in the early stages of a post-mortem reckoning about what went wrong and how to turn the ship around — a somber discussion that’s already featured plenty of finger-pointing about where the blame should fall. “It’s catastrophic,” said Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), a 30-year veteran of the House who was the first Democratic lawmaker to call on President Biden to step aside. “There have been other challenges in the past, but this is certainly the greatest one of my political life.” House Democrats lost a number of members who won’t be returning next year. Many of those are retirements, and some are lawmakers who ran — and won — races for higher office. But others were defeated at the polls last week, including two veteran Pennsylvania lawmakers — Reps. Matt Cartwright and Susan Wild — who had 20 years of experience between them. Assembled on the House floor Tuesday night, Democrats of all stripes lined up to comfort their vanquished friends — a biennial ritual that felt even more momentous this year because of Trump’s imminent return to the White House. Wild — a six-year veteran of the House who lost re-election by one percentage point last week — received a hug from Rep. Lori Trahan (Mass.) on the floor. House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (Mass.) embraced Rep. Colin Allred (Texas), who lost his bid for Senate last week. And Rep. Kathy Manning (N.C.) was seen hugging Rep. Mary Peltola (Alaska), who is currently trailing in her contest. Democrats have been devastated by Trump’s victory. And Tuesday’s scene in the Capitol bore some echoes of Congress’s return to Washington in late 2016, after Trump stunned the country by defeating Hillary Clinton to win his first turn in the Oval Office. Then, as now, Democrats were ready to celebrate the first female president in the country’s history. And then, as now, Trump dashed those plans when voters flocked to his “America First” message of populist nationalism. This time around, Democrats thought they had an additional advantage because of Trump’s legal woes, which include 34 felony convictions since he left office. This year was also the first presidential race since the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, which led directly to Trump’s second impeachment. Instead of celebrating a big win, however, Democrats were left to analyze how Trump — despite all the baggage — was able to convince voters that he was the better candidate. “It is healthy for us to have this conversation,” said Rep. Adam Smith (Wash.). “I know a lot of people [say], ‘Well, let’s not be critical.’ No, no. … I believe in after-action reports.” Many Democrats have pointed fingers at Biden, whose disastrous debate against Trump in June had prompted other party leaders to convince him not to seek a second term. Some now say Biden and his team should have recognized his limitations earlier, and not sought reelection at all. “That’s the only scenario I can think of where we might have had a chance, is if Biden had just never run for reelection,” said Rep. Jared Huffman (Calif.). “The White House did a pretty good job of keeping up appearances and concealing the problem. And it’s a shame, it’s a terrible shame that there wasn’t more self-awareness there. “Ego, ambition, these other human qualities are powerful factors.” Smith, who was among the first Democrats to call for Biden to drop off the ballot, agreed, saying the president’s long delay in making that decision left Harris in the difficult position of explaining why she hadn’t sounded the alarm on Biden’s fitness sooner. “He was struggling for months there, and a lot of people asked Vice President Harris, ‘Well, you saw him struggling, did you think that was OK?’ It put her in a very, very bad position,” he said.
Biden's Legacy Is Genocide, War, And Nuclear Brinkmanship --Caitlin Johnstone - Biden’s legacy is genocide, war, and nuclear brinkmanship. That’s all anyone should talk about when this psychopath finally dies. Anything positive he may have accomplished in his political career is a drop in the ocean compared to the significance of these mass-scale abuses. Biden spent his entire career promoting war and militarism at every opportunity, and then spent the twilight years of his time in Washington choosing to continue supplying an active genocide that is fully dependent on US-supplied arms. He refused off-ramp after off-ramp to the horrific war in Ukraine that hasburned through a generation of men in that country, which he knowingly provoked by amassing a military proxy threat on Russia’s border in ways the US would never tolerate being amassed on its own border. In the early weeks of the conflict Biden and his fellow empire managers sabotaged peace talks to keep the war going for as long as possible with the goal of bleeding Moscow, and at one point his own intelligence agencies reportedly assessed that the probability of a nuclear war erupting on this front was as high as 50–50.Coin toss odds on nuclear war. To call this a crime against humanity would be a massive understatement.Biden has been facilitating Israeli atrocities in the middle east with US military expansionism in the region and bombing operations in Yemen, Iraq and Syria. He will spend his lame duck months backing Israel’s scorched earth demolition of southern Lebanon. This is who Biden is. It is who he has always been. It is true that his brain has begun to rot away like just like his conscience has rotted, but in his lucid moments he adamantly defends his administration’s decisions as the only correct course of action, and it aligns perfectly with his past. To know this, one need only to look at the pivotal role he played in pushing the Iraq invasion, or his extremist rhetoric about how “If there were not an Israel we’d have to invent one.”This is the legacy that Democrats were forced to spend the last election cycle pretending is great and awesome. It’s no wonder they lost. So now, as a parting gift from Joe Biden, Americans and the world get another four years of Donald Trump.That’s the story of Joe Biden. That’s the whole entire thing. Anything on top of that is irrelevant narrative fluff.
Ezra Klein says Democrats ‘need to take seriously how much scarcity harms them’ --Ezra Klein, a columnist with The New York Times, said that Democrats “need to take seriously how much scarcity harms them” in a Monday post on the social platform X.In his post, the left-leaning Klein shared some of his “thoughts from the conversations I’ve been having and hearing over the last week,” including a “hard question” about “how to build a Democratic Party that isn’t always 2 points away from losing to Donald Trump — or worse.”Klein said in another part of his post-Trump election post that “Democrats need to take seriously how much scarcity harms them.”“Housing scarcity became a core Trump-Vance argument against immigrants. Too little clean energy becomes the argument for rapidly building out more fossil fuels,” he continued. “A successful liberalism needs to believe in *and deliver* abundance of the things people need most.”Klein also said, “The Democratic Party is supposed to represent the working class.”“If it isn’t doing that, it is failing,” he continued.Klein’s words somewhat mirror those of Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who said in a Sunday thread on X that a purer form of “economic populism should be” the American left’s “tentpole,” but also argued that “true economic populism is bad for our high-income base.”Back in February 2024, Klein was an early advocate for President Biden’s exit from the presidential race, saying Democrats “should help him find his way to that, to being the thing he said he would be in 2020, the bridge to the next generation of Democrats.”“And then I think Democrats should meet in August at the convention to do what political parties have done at conventions so many times before, organize victory,” he said at the time.
Latino men just didn’t want a woman president -- No, it wasn’t “the Economy, stupid.” Speaking as a Black man born into a Spanish-speaking family, let me tell you what last week’s election was really about.It was about millions of men — many with my Latino immigrant background, some with my skin color — who don’t want any woman, especially a woman of color, in the White House.Trump won 55 percent of Latino men nationally. He won 46 percent of all Latino voters, a 14 percent jump over his support against President Biden in 2020. That was the highest for any Republican presidential candidate in five decades.And the key was his success with Latino men. Trump’s support from Latino men jumped by nearly 20 percentage points, from 36 percent in 2020 when he ran against Biden, a white man.We should have seen it coming. Looking back, in 2016, most Hispanic men voted for someone other than Hillary Clinton when she lost to Trump.In Trump’s triumph over Clinton, Latino men voted for Trump or third-party candidates over Clinton by 48 to 45 percent, according to Pew Research.This year, as the result of Latino male voting, Vice President Kamala Harris claimed 52 percent of the total Latino vote, tied for the worst performance among Latinos for a Democrat since John Kerry in 2004. Only 38 percent of Latino women voted for Trump, about 8 percentage points over their support for him in 2020, according to Edison Research. The big shift in voting patterns that realigned the national political map and gave the popular vote to Trump was ignited by Latino men. Why? Allow me to differ with the conventional argument that the shift in the Latino male vote is about inflation and wages.In my lifetime I have seen a huge jump in America’s Latino population. In 2023, Latinos officially outnumbered Blacks to become the largest racial minority group in the country. But even when there were fewer of us in number, I repeatedly saw Latinos with light or white skin, some in my own family, downplaying their ethnic identity to speed assimilation into the American melting pot as white people.They pushed to join with previous waves of American immigrants, from the Irish to the Italians, who went from being ethnics to being generically labeled as all-American white people.This has long been true of my friends among white-skinned Cubans in Florida. With their history of fleeing communist rule, Cubans have historically identified with the conservative, anti-communist white-majority Republican party far more than immigrants from other Latino countries.Several other non-economic factors are also driving Latino men to the GOP. I have personally witnessed the macho, Latino male rejection of gay and especially transgender people. From childhood, when I sat ringside at boxing matches or played organized baseball with Latin men, it was common to hear anti-gay slurs. The focus of Trump’s most memorable campaign advertising in the 2024 campaign was his opposition to Harris’s support for transition surgery for transgender prison inmates in California. Also, there is the Latino male attraction to the strongman, a style of politics evident in Trump’s delight in brassy, loutish, sexist behavior. Trump’s wealth, his three wives and reports of his being with a porn actress only added to his allure. “I believe there is another painful factor that, though difficult to measure in polls, might help explain Trump’s appeal with Latino men: the allure of the ‘caudillo,’” wrote Leon Krauze in The Washington Post. “Trump represents a familiar archetype in Latin American history: the charismatic leader…the providential man, the messianic leader, deeply ingrained in Latino culture.” Trump played into that Latino cultural memory with his so-called “Bro strategy.” It was intended to stir up young white men with frat house behavior, such as talking at a public rally about famed golfer Arnold Palmer’s genitals. Then there was Trump’s Republican convention, featuring wrestler Hulk Hogan ripping off his shirt. He also demeaned Harris as a “dumb” and “stupid” woman. He attacked another woman, former House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, as “evil, sick, crazy,” before saying he wants to call her a word that “starts with a B, but I won’t say…I want to say it” before the crowd screamed the word out, of course.Men of all races ignored the sexist vitriol and backed Trump over Harris, 55 percent to 42 percent. That was a wider gap than in 2020, when 53 percent of all men supported Trump over President Biden, another white manInitially, alarm over the male vote focused on the possibility that Harris was losing support from Black men. But when the votes were cast, Black men gave Harris the same level of support they had given Biden in 2020. The big shift was among Latino men.With Trump’s election, the nation will have another male president and a white male Republican majority in Congress. Emboldened by their victory, the white male Republicans in Washington are in a position to cut social safety net benefits to the poor, who are disproportionately Black and Latino.They will also be free to begin mass deportation and enact harsh restrictions on women’s reproductive freedoms. Trump’s contemptuous treatment of powerful women was intended to boost his support among white and Black men. But it worked best with Latino men. Juan Williams is an author and a political analyst for Fox News Channel.
Judge delays Donald Trump immunity decision in NY hush money case --A New York judge delayed a Tuesday decision on whether President-elect Trump’s conviction can withstand the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling, following his election victory last week. Judge Juan Merchan agreed to freeze the case until Nov. 19, newly public court records show, enabling prosecutors to respond to Trump’s demand the case be dismissed entirely now that he is president-elect. Trump’s sentencing, which would be the first of any former president, is scheduled for Nov. 26. He was convicted on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection with a hush money payment made to porn actor Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election to conceal an affair, which he denies. Trump’s attorneys believe his election as president compels the dismissal of his criminal prosecutions. “The stay, and dismissal, are necessary to avoid unconstitutional impediments to President Trump’s ability to govern,” Trump attorney Emil Bove wrote in an email to the judge. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s (D) office agreed to delay the proceedings as they assess how to respond to Trump’s demand. “The People agree that these are unprecedented circumstances and that the arguments raised by defense counsel in correspondence to the People on Friday require careful consideration,” prosecutor Matthew Colangelo wrote to the judge. In a statement, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said Trump was elected “with an overwhelming mandate to Make America Great Again.”“It is now abundantly clear that Americans want an immediate end to the weaponization of our justice system, including this case, which should have never been filed, so we can, as President Trump said in his historic victory speech, unify our country and work together for the betterment of our nation,” Cheung said.Merchan was slated to rule Tuesday on whether Trump’s guilty verdict must be wiped under the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity decision, which was handed down after the trial. The high court held that former presidents enjoy absolute immunity from criminal prosecution for exercising core constitutional powers and at least presumptive immunity for other official acts. Unofficial conduct can be prosecuted, but the jury cannot question the motivation behind a presidential decision, the court said. Trump’s attorneys said prosecutors with the district attorney’s office howed jurors evidence during his seven-week trial that was protected by the justices’ ruling, which the state rejected. The case is taking a similar path as Trump’s federal prosecution in the nation’s capital, where he stands accused of unlawfully conspiring to subvert the 2020 election results. Last week, a judge granted special counsel Jack Smith’s office request to suspend all deadlines in that case and provide an update on Dec. 2 about next steps. The former president’s other two criminal prosecutions are also on ice. Trump’s classified documents case was dismissed by a different federal judge, and his Georgia criminal case is paused indefinitely while an appeals court weighs a challenge from Trump and his co-defendants.
Jack Smith To Resign In Defeat Before Trump Takes Office - A defeated special counsel Jack Smith and his team are planning to resign before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, the NY Times reports, citing a source familiar with the matter. The news comes days after Smith moved to pause his J6 case against Donald Trump and vacate all remaining deadlines. According to the new report, Smith's office has been looking at the best path forward in winding down its work on the two outstanding federal criminal cases against Trump - as the DOJ has a longstanding policy not to charge or prosecute a sitting president with a crime.Smith's departure is more of a "you can't fire me, I quit!" after Trump vowed to fire him within "two seconds" of being sworn in."We got immunity at the Supreme Court. It's so easy. I would fire him within two seconds. He'll be one of the first things addressed," Trump told radio host Hugh Hewitt last month.Department regulations require Smith to file a report summarizing his investigation and decisions - though it's not clear how quickly he can finish his work - or whether it could be made public before President Biden leaves office - however several officials told the NY Times that he has no intention of lingering any longer than he has to, and has told career prosecutors and FBI agents who are not directly involved in the case that they can start planning their departures over the next few weeks.On Friday, GOP lawmakers told DOJ officials to preserve all of their communications for investigators - who view Smith and crew as the embodiment of a Democratic effort to use lawfare as part of a weaponized Justice Department. According to Smith, he needs until Dec. 2 to figure out how exactly to wind down his J6 case, as well as another case in which he charged Trump with mishandling classified national security documents after leaving office. The latter case was dismissed by Judge Aileen Cannon of the Federal District Court in Fort Pierce, FL - a decision which is currently under appeal in federal court in Atlanta.
Bad day for Alex Jones as The Onion buys Infowars - No joke, this time. Satirical publication The Onion has purchased Infowars and all of its assets at auction, dealing a final blow to internet rabble-rouser Alex Jones’ conspiracy empire. The acquisition, announced Thursday, came with the support of families of children who were killed in the Sandy Hook school shooting, who had previously won a $1.4 billion defamation verdict against Jones, whose radio show promoted conspiracies claiming the massacre was a “hoax” involving paid “crisis actors.”Twenty children and six adults were killed by a shooter during the 2012 school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut. The families of eight of the victims supported the sale to The Onion and “agreed to forgo a portion of their recovery to increase the overall value of The Onion’s bid, enabling its success,” according to a statement from the law firm representing the families.“The world needs to see that having a platform does not mean you are above accountability — the dissolution of Alex Jones’ assets and the death of Infowars is the justice we have long awaited and fought for,” Robbie Parker, whose daughter Emilie was killed in the shooting, said in the statement. The Onion said it will immediately shut down Infowars — which peddled a litany of conspiracy theories while also hawking supplements — and work with the gun safety organization Everytown for Gun Safety to transition it into a humor site, which it said would launch in January.“The Onion is proud to acquire Infowars, and we look forward to continuing its tradition of scaring the site’s users with lies until they fork over their cold, hard cash,” said CEO Ben Collins. He added: “We hope the Sandy Hook families will be able to marvel at the cosmic joke we will soon make InfoWars.com.”The sale price was not disclosed.Jones, an ardent supporter of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, confirmed the acquisition Thursday, calling the sale “tyranny of the new world order” in a video posted to X and promising legal challenges.“I’m gonna be in here until they come in here and turn the lights off,” he said.
The Guardian Throws Tantrum Over Trump Victory, Says "No Longer Posting On X" -- The transition to new media is full steam ahead after propaganda outlets MSNBC and CNN experienced a total collapse in viewership days after the presidential election.What's more, NBC-parent Comcast is reportedly mulling the sale of 'declining cable networks' including MSNBC, while another round of layoffs at CNN is yet further evidence that their business model is broken - which has 'elites' such as Hillary Clinton & John Kerry in a panic.Quite the sensitive bunch, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei had a total meltdown after Elon Musk told X users: "You are the media." On X, "Musk is proclaiming that 'you are the media.' No, you're not. I mean, maybe you're somebody who's popping off on X, but it's different than being a reporter… I could take your temperature... If you had a wound, I could put a bandaid on it. It doesn't make me a fucking doctor." …https://t.co/Q3XNiN8cxF — Dylan Byers (@DylanByers) November 12, 2024 This leads us to the establishment mouthpiece, The Guardian, which appears to be digging itself into a deeper hole by explaining to readers on Wednseday that Guardian editorial accounts will stop posting on X because of rampant "far-right conspiracy theories and racism."Here's more from the outlet: We wanted to let readers know that we will no longer post on any official Guardian editorial accounts on the social media site X (formerly Twitter). We think that the benefits of being on X are now outweighed by the negatives and that resources could be better used promoting our journalism elsewhere.This is something we have been considering for a while given the often disturbing content promoted or found on the platform, including far-right conspiracy theories and racism. The US presidential election campaign served only to underline what we have considered for a long time: that X is a toxic media platform and that its owner, Elon Musk, has been able to use its influence to shape political discourse.X users will still be able to share our articles, and the nature of live news reporting means we will still occasionally embed content from X within our article pages.Our reporters will also be able to carry on using the site for news-gathering purposes, just as they use other social networks in which we do not officially engage.
Advertisers Plan Return To X To Get In "Good Graces Of Elon" -Donald Trump is set to return to the White House in January. Ahead of his return, the former president announced that Elon Musk would lead the new "Department of Government Efficiency" in his second administration. With Musk's close ties to Trump, advertisers are expected to flock back to X to gain access to the administration.The Financial Times recently spoke with media executives who revealed that some brands are preparing to advertise on X again, particularly due to Musk's connections with the incoming administration. Lou Paskalis, CEO of the marketing consultancy AJL Advisory and a former media executive at Bank of America, explained that marketers plan to reallocate spending dollars on X as a form of "political leverage." He noted that some companies are seeking government contracts and trying to get in the "good graces of Elon.""It could be seen as an official channel for White House communications," another advertising agency chief told FT, adding that Trump's victory has shifted significant power and legitimacy into Musk's hands.However, only some are optimistic. One media director described X as a "mess," questioning, "Which brand will take the risk?"Musk's $44 billion acquisition of X initially triggered chaos in ad monetization. Dark money-funded fact-checkers allegedly created false reports to discourage companies from advertising on the platform, attempting to starve it of ad revenue.The problem for Soros-funded Media Matters and other far-left organizations was that Elon Musk, the world's richest man, could support X operations for a long time. Musk famously told brands that pulled their ads to "go f**k yourself" at the DealBook Conference and has since announced plans to sue the so-called advertising censorship cartel.Richard Exon, founder of the ad agency Joint, said, "Trump's victory may well mean brands give X a second chance in 2025," though he cautioned that they "will be wise to proceed with extreme caution."Meanwhile, as X cements its role as a central hub for distributing news to Americans, legacy media outlets like CNN and MSNBC are imploding.
Big Tech scrutiny will continue under Trump, even without Lina Khan - Lina Khan’s controversial tenure as Federal Trade Commission (FTC) chair seems at an end with President-elect Trump’s win last week, removing a massive “thorn” in the side of large tech firms that faced additional scrutiny under her leadership. However, experts cautioned that Big Tech is not in the clear under a second Trump presidency, particularly with a populist bent that could keep antitrust enforcement at the forefront. “Trump is a populist, and he’s a populist in every sense of the word, including antitrust policy,” Matthew Cantor, an antitrust lawyer with Shinder Cantor Lerner, told The Hill. “I think that there will be a continued push on antitrust issues — maybe not a Lina Khan-like pushing of the envelope — but there will be a continued priority placed on antitrust enforcement,” he added. Khan has led the Biden administration’s aggressive antitrust push, blocking what she views as anticompetitive mergers and suing corporate giants for alleged anticompetitive practices. Her policies have often drawn the ire of the business community, even making her flashpoint among Democrats. After Vice President Harris stepped into the White House race in July, several major Democratic donors, including LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and IAC chair Barry Diller, urged her toremove Khan if elected. The heat on the FTC chair prompted her progressive supporters, like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), to jump to her defense. Ocasio-Cortez promised an“out and out brawl” if “anyone goes near Lina Khan” last month. As parts of the Republican Party increasingly embrace populism, Khan’s more forceful approach to antitrust enforcement has been welcomed by some from the other side of the aisle. Vice President-elect Vance touted the FTC chair’s record in February, saying that she was doing a “pretty good job.”“A lot of my Republican colleagues look at Lina Khan … and they say, well Lina Khan is sort of engaged in some sort of fundamental evil thing. And I guess I look at Lina Khan as one of the few people in the Biden administration that I think is doing a pretty good job,” the Ohio Republican said at a Bloomberg forum. Despite Vance’s praise for Khan, she seems unlikely to remain on in a second Trump administration. Conservative support for the FTC chair has its limits, said Owen Tedford, a senior research analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors. “I think that there’s some appreciation for what she’s done to try and reign in Big Tech, but I think that’s kind of where the love stops,” Tedford told The Hill. “Even if you end up with a more aggressive nominee at the FTC and or the [Department of Justice] than maybe a traditional Republican administration, it’s still not going to be a Lina Khan in Republican’s clothing. It’s going to be a step back from that,” he added. However, certain sectors, including tech and pharmaceuticals, will likely remain top targets for antitrust enforcement under Trump, Tedford said. Big Tech was already facing scrutiny during the president-elect’s first term in office. In 2020, the Department of Justice (DOJ) sued Google for allegedly monopolizing online search, while the FTC sued Facebook for allegedly maintaining an illegal monopoly over social networking. Under President Biden, the DOJ followed up with a second antitrust lawsuit against Google for its role in the advertising technology market. It later sued Apple for allegedly monopolizing the smartphone market. The FTC also sued Amazon during the Biden administration, accusing the e-commerce giant of engaging in anticompetitive practices to maintain a monopoly in the online retail space. The DOJ secured a significant win in the Google search case in August, when a federal judge ruled the tech giant had a monopoly over online search that it illegally maintained through a series of exclusive agreements. While Big Tech will likely continue to face scrutiny under Trump, his administration may not take such a “harsh” approach to remedies in these antitrust cases, Tedford suggested. “I think that there still would be a belief from Trump regulators that they want to win something out of these cases, but I don’t think that will necessarily be as structural or maybe as harsh as it would have been under a Harris administration,” he said. The DOJ revealed in a filing last month that it is considering asking the judge to break off Google’s search business from other parts of the company. When asked about the potential breakup last month, Trump appeared skeptical. “It’s a very dangerous thing because we want to have great companies,” he said during an interview with Bloomberg. “We don’t want China to have these companies. Right now, China is afraid of Google.”
EU fines Meta over $840 million for ‘abusive practices’ favoring Facebook Marketplace - Meta received a fine of over $840 million on Wednesday for breaching the European Union’s antitrust rules as it relates to market domination after three years of legal proceedings.The multinational company was penalized for tying its online classified ads service Facebook Marketplace to its personal social network Facebook according to the release. The feature allows Meta to use data generated by other advertisers on Facebook and Instagram to attract customers on Facebook Marketplace. The Hill reached out to Meta for comment.The European Commission ordered Meta to end its conduct and to refrain from repeating similar advertising methods in the future after opening a formal investigation in 2021 followed by a Statement of Objections in 2022.“In setting the level of the fine, the Commission took into account the duration and gravity of the infringement, as well as the turnover of Facebook Marketplace to which the infringements relate and which therefore defines the basic amount of the fine,” the Commission wrote.“In addition, the Commission considered Meta’s total turnover, to ensure sufficient deterrence for a company with resources as significant as Meta’s,” it added.
Michigan House OKs tax breaks to lure Google, Microsoft data server farms — Michigan is one step closer to offering tens of millions of dollars in tax breaks for tech companies to build large server farms in Michigan, following a Wednesday vote by a divided state House.The legislation, SB 4906, is part of a two-bill package to exempt large data centers from sales and use taxes on their equipment through at least 2050. The bill hopes to lure investment from tech giants like Microsoft and Google amid a rush to build facilities to power artificial intelligence and provide cloud storage for computers and phones. But the centers typically use lots of energy and don’t provide many jobs, raising concerns from environmentalists and others. The legislation passed 64-45 after several lawmakers who previously had opposed the legislation voted for it. The package now returns to the Senate, which approved an earlier version but must agree to new amendments.“What we saw is the coalition that's existed between the parties, that's pro-economic development, coming together on this,” said the bill’s chief sponsor, Joey Andrews, D-St. Joseph. Other bills approved Wednesday would create a new research and development tax credit for Michigan businesses. The credit is expected to cost the state roughly $100 million a year in taxes.An analysis by the Senate Fiscal Agency estimated the proposed data center tax breaks could reduce state and local tax revenue by more than $90 million through 2065.Proponents contend the centers will create jobs, tax money and local revenue from electricity and water sales. In order to qualify for the tax break, each data center operator would be required to invest at least $250 million and create 30 jobs paying 150% of local median wage.“You think about the number of places around the state that are looking for a new lease on life, that used to be manufacturing centers and now aren't,” the bill’s chief sponsor, Andrews told Bridge in June. “This is an opportunity for them.”Environmentalists call the breaks unnecessary corporate giveaways that threaten to undo Michigan’s climate progress and inflate energy costs.“After losing an election in which the cost of living played a central role, the priority of Democratic leadership in Michigan was to push through a bill to override 28 of their own caucus members voting no, that will raise regular Michiganders’ utility bills,” said Christy McGillivray, the Michigan Sierra Club’s political and legislative director.Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has not weighed in publicly on the bills, but both DTE Energy CEO Jerry Norcia and environmental opponents like McGillivrayhave said she is a behind-the-scenes supporter.
CFPB May Place Google Under Federal Supervision -- Washington Post reports the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is moving to place Google under federal supervision,potentially subjecting the tech giant to strict monitoring similar to that imposed on financial institutions.Two people familiar with the situation said Google resisted the move to be placed under federal supervision, setting the stage for a potential legal battle with the CFPB.Formed after the 2008 GFC meltdown, the CFPB has broad powers to shield consumers from unfair, deceptive, or predatory financial practices. The reasons behind CFPB's potential move remain unclear, and the agency's future direction under Director Rohit Chopra faces uncertainty with President-elect Trump's return to the White House. WaPo said: The CFPB already conducts these inspections at large banks and credit unions, which have been subject to supervision — by other state and federal regulators — for many years. But Chopra has expressed recent alarm that the government does not always apply the same oversight to technology companies, even at a time when the financial tools they provide are similar to the bank accounts and payment systems long under close watch.WaPo noted:Google, for example, offers financial services including Google Wallet, which stores credit cards digitally and allows users to pay at registers with their mobile phones. (It previously offered another app, called Google Pay, which allowed U.S. users until this June to send each other cash.) Hundreds of customers have complained about Google's services in comments to the CFPB in recent years, alleging that they experienced trouble with unauthorized charges on their accounts… To supervise Google, the agency must identify the company's activities as a risk to consumers. Simultaneously, the CFPB has also worked to finalize a broader set of rules that could allow it to impose supervision across the tech industry, covering not only the search giant but other large firms, including Amazon, Apple and PayPal-owned Venmo. Meanwhile, big tech firms have lobbied against the oversight proposal and warned that the CFPB's legal authorities threaten mom-and-pop businesses.
It's 'liquidity, stupid': VCs say tech investing is tough amid IPO lull and 'nuts' AI hype — It's a tough time for the venture capital industry right now as a dearth of blockbuster initial public offerings and M&A activity has sucked liquidity from the market, while buzzy artificial intelligence startups dominate attention. At the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, two venture investors — whose portfolios include the likes of multibillion-dollar AI startups Databricks Anthropic and Groq — said things have become much more difficult as they're unable to cash out of some of their long-term bets. "In the U.S., when you talk about the presidential election, it's the economy stupid. And in the VC world, it's really all about liquidity stupid," Edith Yeung, general partner at Race Capital, an early-stage VC firm based in Silicon Valley, said in a CNBC-moderated panel earlier this week. Liquidity is the holy grail for VCs, startup founders and early employees as it gives them a chance to realize gains — or, if things turn south, losses — on their investments. When a VC makes an equity investment and the value of their stake increases, it's only a gain on paper. But when a startup IPOs or sells to another company, their equity stake gets converted into hard cash — enabling them to make new investments. Yeung said the lack of IPOs over the last couple of years had created a "really tough" environment for venture capital. At the same, however, there's been a rush from investors to get into buzzy AI firms. "What's really crazy is in the last few years, OpenAI's domination has really been determined by Big Techs, the Microsofts of the world," said Yeung, referring to ChatGPT-creator OpenAI's seismic $157 billion valuation. OpenAI is backed by Microsoft, which has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the firm. Larry Aschebrook, founder and managing partner at late-stage VC firm G Squared, agreed that the hunt for liquidity is getting harder — even though the likes of OpenAI are seeing blockbuster funding rounds, which he called "a bit nuts." "You have funds and founders and employees searching for liquidity because the IPO market is not happening. And then you have funding rounds taking place of generational types of businesses," Aschebrook said on the panel. As important as these deals are, Aschebrook suggested they aren't helping investors because even more money is getting tied up in illiquid, privately owned shares. G Squared itself an early backer of Anthropic, a foundational AI model startup competing with Microsoft-backed OpenAI. Using a cooking analogy, Aschebrook suggested that venture capitalists are being starved of lucrative share sales which would lead to them realizing returns. "If you want to cook some dinner, you better sell some stock, " he added. Looking for opportunities beyond OpenAI Yeung and Aschebrook both said they're excited about opportunities beyond artificial intelligence, such as cybersecurity, enterprise software and crypto. At Race Capital, Yeung said she sees opportunities to make money from investments in sectors including enterprise and infrastructure — not necessarily always AI. "The key thing for us is not thinking about what's going to happen, not necessarily in terms of exit in two or three years, we're really, really long term," Yeung said. "I think for 2025, if President [Donald] Trump can make a comeback, there's a few other industries I think that are quite interesting. For sure, crypto is definitely making a comeback already."
Crypto's $245 million campaign finance operation filled airwaves with ads not about crypto— In Nevada’s 4th Congressional District, a crypto PAC spent nearly $2 million on ads this cycle to support the reelection of Steven Horsford, a Democratic congressman who’s voted in favor of some major pro-crypto bills.But watching the ads, you’d learn nothing about that agenda.“He’s leading on jobs, bringing good paying union jobs to Nevada and rebuilding our infrastructure,” one 30-second commercial says. “He capped insulin prices at $35 a month” and “worked multiple jobs to support his hard-working single mother and siblings.”The ad wraps up with the disclosure, “Fairshake is responsible for the content of this ad.”Fairshake was the largest crypto-aligned super PAC in the 2024 election cycle, spending piles of cash to support crypto allies and vote out antagonists across the country. The group brought in $170 million, accounting for a huge chunk of the amount raised by crypto-related PACs and other groups, which totaled more than $245 million, according to Federal Election Commission data. Crypto has accounted for nearly half of all corporate money flowing into the election, according to a report from nonprofit watchdog Public Citizen. No other sector is close. That includes oil companies and banks, which have historically been big political contributors. Crypto even outpaced Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, who spent tens of millions of dollars to try to get Republican nominee former President Donald Trump back in the White House in his contest against Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.A big part of the crypto industry’s strategy when it came to distributing cash was to identify key races and then flood the zone.Industry advocacy group Stand With Crypto Alliance, launched by Coinbase last year, developed a grading system for the presidential race and for House and Senate candidates across the country, helping it determine where to spend.Horsford received an A grade based on his public comments and his voting history while in office. His campaign received money from Fairshake as well as individual donations from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen, venture capitalist and longtime crypto investor Reid Hoffman, and billionaire twins Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss.Nevada is home to two of the thirteen “critical elections” singled out by Stand with Crypto, a designation the group defines as races that are “critical to the future of crypto in America.” In addition to Horsford’s election, the other Nevada race is the Senate contest between Democratic incumbent Jackie Rosen and Republican challenger Sam Brown. Both candidates received an A grade.According to data shared by Stand with Crypto, 385,000 Nevadans are crypto owners, and more than 16,000 people in the state have signed up to be advocates for the group, which made a stop in Las Vegas in September as part of a multi-state tour.The other races deemed critical were for Senate in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Massachusetts, Michigan, Wisconsin and Maryland, and for specific House contests in Colorado, Iowa and Oregon.To reach potential voters, Fairshake isn’t talking a lot about crypto. Nor are its affiliate PACs, which have names like Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress. They’ve collectively spent more than $135 million this cycle, mostly on ads.“Not mentioning crypto assets explicitly is probably a savvy move to avoid alienating voters who prefer traditional currencies and might be put off by connections to crypto,” said David Nickerson, an associate professor of political science at Temple University who worked in the analytics department for President Barack Obama’s reelection campaign in 2012.
Hedge funds performed better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones, history shows - There's been a rush of enthusiasm on Wall Street regarding Donald Trump's election win, but hedge funds actually generate more alpha when the White House is occupied by a Democrat president than a Republican one, according to HFR, collating data going back to 1991. When compared with the S&P 500, the industry underperformed regardless of who was president. But during Democratic administrations, the gap was about 183 basis points, with hedge funds delivering average, annualized returns of 10.16%, compared to 11.99% from the S&P 500. The underperformance gap during Republican administrations was 331 basis points. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.) When compared with the a bond index, HFR found that hedge funds under both parties outperformed – with stronger alpha when a Democrat was in the White House.The total net asset flows were higher under Republican administrations (about $450 billion) than Democratic ones (about $400 billion), even though since 1991, Democrats served six more years in the highest office than Republicans. Surprisingly, the way that hedge fund participants donate in elections was a bit more tilted toward one party. According to a recent report by Open Secrets, in the 2024 election cycle, individuals in the industry donated $31 million to Democratic candidates, while almost half that amount — $16 million — went to Republican candidates.Of course the takeaway here is that hedge fund returns are far more correlated with positioning relative to various asset-class performances than particular policies by the administration. So, it's hard to make any predictions about what the next four years entails for the industry.At Wednesday's 14th annual Delivering Alpha event, we should get a sense as to how money managers may be reconfiguring their portfolios.
Dogecoin surges 20% after Trump announces a Department of Government Efficiency — DOGE - Dogecoin shot higher on Tuesday night, extending its postelection surge after President-elect Donald Trump formally announced the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency, which he referred to as “DOGE” in his statement. Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, former Republican presidential candidate and Strive Asset Management co-founder, will lead the department, Trump said in a statement. Together, they “will pave the way for my Administration to dismantle Government Bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies.” Dogecoin was last up nearly 20%. It has been one of the biggest winners in the postelection rally, gaining 153% since election day compared to bitcoin’s 30% rise in the same period. It also shot past XRP this week to become the sixth largest cryptocurrency by market cap.
Gary Gensler reviews accomplishments, defends crypto approach - Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler spoke this morning at the Practising Law Institute's 56th annual conference on securities regulation. It sounded awfully close to a farewell speech. "It's a remarkable agency," Gensler said of the SEC, which he has led since April 2021. "It's been a great honor to serve with them, doing the people's work, and ensuring that our capital markets remain the best in the world." Most notably, Gensler highlighted the many disclosure rules the SEC has enacted, including disclosure on data breaches, executive pay versus performance and additional disclosures on those seeking to control and buy more than a 5% stake in a company. Gensler made only passing reference to his most controversial disclosure rule, on climate change, which has been challenged in court. "Congress put in place important provisions about disclosure because information about securities creates a public good," he said. On market structure, Gensler noted he had put in place new rules on central clearing of Treasuries and shortening of the settlement cycle for stocks from two days to one day, and had recently passed rules that allow stocks to be quoted in increments of less than a penny. Gensler offered a full-throated defense of his approach to crypto. Gensler repeated his assertion that while bitcoin is not a security, the SEC's focus "has been on some of the 10,000 or so other digital assets, many of which courts have ruled were offered or sold as securities" and are therefore subject to the SEC's purview. He again asserted anyone offering to sell securities needs to register, and that intermediaries such as broker-dealers, exchanges and clearinghouses also need to be registered. He said that the failure to properly police the crypto industry had resulted in "significant investor harm" and that "the vast majority of crypto assets have yet to prove out sustainable use cases." Gensler did not say he was resigning, but the tone was clear. "I've been proud to serve with my colleagues at the SEC who, day in and day out, work to protect American families on the highways of finance," he said at the end of his speech.
Fed Suddenly Flips On Huge $3 Trillion Bitcoin And Crypto Price Boom - Bitcoin has surged in the wake of Donald Trump's decisive U.S. presidential election victory—with the bitcoin price braced for a huge "game-changer." The bitcoin price has closed in on $100,000 per bitcoin, rocketing higher as a "perfect storm" pushes the combined crypto market back above $3 trillion for the first time since 2021.Now, as Tesla billionaire and Trump advisor Elon Musk issues a serious U.S. "bankruptcy" warning, a top Federal Reserve official has suddenly softened his criticism of bitcoin and crypto. "I will have an open mind," Minneapolis Federal Reserve president Neel Kashkari told Coindesk this week.Kashkari has previously called bitcoin and cryptocurrencies more broadly "worthless," "fraudulent" and "nonsense" and in 2020 compared the crypto market to a "giant garbage dumpster."However, despite promising to remain open to crypto, Kashkari asked, "other than as a speculative asset, what does it actually do in the real economy?"The bitcoin price rally this year has been called a "debasement trade" by JPMorgan analysts who have predicted the bitcoin price could continue to rise on fears of U.S. dollar devaluation and inflation. Tesla billionaire Elon Musk, appointed to lead the Doge department of government efficiency under the new Trump administration, has led a growing backlash against out-of-control U.S. government spending that exploded through the Covid-era lockdowns. The bitcoin price has exploded higher this year, soaring toward $100,000 per bitcoin. Kashkari's softening of his stance toward bitcoin and crypto comes as U.S. president-elect Trump has surrounded himself with heavily pro-bitcoin and crypto advisors, including Howard Lutnick, the chief executive of Wall Street giant Cantor Fitzgerald who is heading up Trump's transition team and is in the running to be his Treasury secretary pick.Trump's victory has propelled the bitcoin price higher over the last week as traders bet his administration will mean an easing of U.S. crypto regulations and a change of leadership at regulatory agencies that have frowned on crypto markets.Trump has also floated plans to create a U.S. bitcoin strategic reserve—predicting the bitcoin price could eventually eclipse gold—and the possibility of using bitcoin to pay off the U.S.'s $35 trillion debt pile.
Scaramucci: Trump's Crypto Support Could Push Bitcoin To $150K - Skybridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci anticipates a significant increase in Bitcoin’s value, foreseeing a potential shift towards a less politicized regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies under the upcoming U.S. administration. Scaramucci, who will be a headline speaker at Benzinga's upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Tuesday, expressed optimism about U.S. crypto policy in a recent interview with Saxo. Being a significant investor in Bitcoin BTC/USD and Solana SOL/USD, Scaramucci believes that a depoliticized regulatory landscape could fuel growth in the decentralized finance and blockchain sectors. Scaramucci predicts Bitcoin’s value could surge to $150,000 if the regulatory issues are addressed. He also mentioned that ex-U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Jay Clayton and former Acting Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks are allegedly working on a “100-day plan” to revise stablecoin legislation and clarify asset classifications.According to Scaramucci, this move could greatly benefit the cryptocurrency sector. Despite his endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris over Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential race, Scaramucci recognized Trump’s positive stance on cryptocurrencies and expressed his readiness to contribute to shaping crypto regulations if given the opportunity.However, he cautioned that Trump’s isolationist policies could potentially impact the U.S. economy negatively.“I think Bitcoin has been suppressed by U.S. faulty politicized regulation and so this is one of the good things about the Trump administration they're going to depoliticize the cryptocurrency regulations be very good for crypto,” he said during the interview.The potential shift towards a less politicized regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies could lead to significant growth in the defi and blockchain sectors.This change, coupled with the proposed updates to stablecoin legislation and asset categorizations, could provide a more favorable environment for cryptocurrencies, potentially driving their values higher. Scaramucci’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 reflects this optimism. However, the impact of political changes on the regulatory landscape remains to be seen.
Treasury warns banks deepfake fraud is on the rise -- A bureau of the Department of Treasury is warning that deepfakes are playing a larger role in fraud that targets banks and credit unions. The Treasury's financial crimes arm alerted banks to the dangers of AI-powered fraud, urging close monitoring and swift reporting of any suspicious activity.
Google Warns of Rising Cloaking Scams, AI-Driven Fraud, and Crypto Schemes - Google has revealed that bad actors are leveraging techniques like landing page cloaking to conduct scams by impersonating legitimate sites."Cloaking is specifically designed to prevent moderation systems and teams from reviewing policy-violating content which enables them to deploy the scam directly to users," Laurie Richardson, VP and Head of Trust and Safety at Google, said."The landing pages often mimic well-known sites and create a sense of urgency to manipulate users into purchasing counterfeit products or unrealistic products."Cloaking refers to the practice of serving different content to search engines like Google and users with the ultimate goal of manipulating search rankings and deceiving users.The tech giant said it has also observed a cloaking trend wherein users clicking on ads are redirected via tracking templates to scareware sites that claim their devices are compromised with malware and lead them to other phony customer support sites, which trick them into revealing sensitive information. Some of the other recent tactics adopted by fraudsters and cybercriminals are listed below -
- Misuse of artificial intelligence (AI) tools to create deepfakes of public figures, taking advantage of their credibility and reach to conduct investment fraud
- Using hyper-realistic impersonation for bogus crypto investment schemes
- App and landing page clone scams that dupe users into visiting lookalike pages of their legitimate counterparts, leading to credential or data theft, malware downloads, and fraudulent purchases
- Capitalizing on major events and combining them with AI to defraud people or promote non-existent products and services
Google told The Hacker News that it intends to release such advisories about online fraud and scams every six months as part of its efforts to raise awareness about the risks.Many of the cryptocurrency-related scams such as pig butchering originate from Southeast Asia and are run by organized crime syndicates from China, who lure individuals with the prospect of high-paying jobs, only to be confined within scam factories located across Burma, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, and the Philippines.A report published by the United Nations last month revealed that criminal syndicates in the region are stepping up by swiftly integrating "new service-based business models and technologies including malware, generative AI, and deepfakes into their operations while opening up new underground markets and cryptocurrency solutions for their money laundering needs."The U.N. Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) described the incorporation of generative AI and other technological advancements in cyber-enabled fraud as a "powerful force multiplier," not only making it more efficient but also lowering the bar for entry to technically less-savvy criminals.
Cryptocurrencies are making investors very rich – and making it harder to catch financial scammers - Fraudulent payments – where people are tricked into sending money to criminals – cost consumers £460 million in England and Wales last year. To give consumers more protection, the UK government now plans to give banks 72 hours to delaycompletion of potentially fraudulent transfers.The growth of the decentralised finance sector – including cryptocurrencies and the platforms that facilitate their trade – offers an alternative to mainstream finance. But as well as new opportunities, the growth of DeFi (as it’s known) has brought serious risks of financial crime and scams.On the one hand, the blockchain technology used in cryptocurrencies has been heralded as a means of increasing transparency and efficiency for banks and other corporations. On the other hand, DeFi presents a longstanding problem of criminal use – anonymising and masking illicit transactions and facilitating the global movement of crime proceeds.The grooming processes that fraudsters use to gain the trust of victims can be sophisticated, with slick websites, pseudo-expertise, or promises of gain or a long-term relationship (whether romantic or business).Once they’ve struck, the criminals convert traditional currencies into digital assets like cryptocurrencies. This enables large volumes of money to move quickly and undeclared across borders. The blockchain technologies that make this possible are celebrated as the cutting edge in financial technology, but they also pose risks by serving as avenues for money laundering, scams and other illegal activities, from narcotics trafficking to funding terrorism.The scale is difficult to gauge, but published figures vary from about 1% to 3% of global transactions, a range of US$24 billion(£19 billion) to US$72 billion – just Bitcoin – annually.The speed and sophistication of the evolution of scams against businesses and consumers has made it difficult for regulators to keep pace. Phone calls and phishing emails have mutated into deepfaked boardroom meetings, with AI voiceovers, targeting those with financial sign-off powers and causing companies to fall victim too.DeFi specialist lawyers can instigate proceedings and tracing if they are informed before the money leaves their jurisdiction. However, the risk increases over time and in less robust legal systems. It very quickly becomes difficult to trace or retrieve funds thanks to crypto wallets, offshore accounts and cryptocurrencies that offer total anonymity, like Monero.
Elder fraud is rising. So is the pressure on banks to catch it. - Recent multimillion-dollar elder fraud cases are leading to lawsuits and possible regulatory action. When Janine Williamson's uncle Larry Cook, a retired Navy commander living in Herndon, Virginia, died, she was appointed administrator to his estate and began receiving his mail. Williamson, a financial planner, saw some unusual activity in his monthly statements from Navy Federal Credit Union.
Banks are reporting a tenfold surge in digital scams, cybersecurity firm BioCatch says -U.S. and Canadian banks reported a tenfold surge in digitalscams this year as criminals flock to techniques that rely on duping customers into sending them money, according to cybersecurity firm BioCatch.The sharp rise in reported scams from the first three quarters of 2023 comes as banks have put in place more controls to prevent account takeovers and other forms of fraud, according to BioCatch Director of Global Fraud Intelligence Tom Peacock."Fraudsters have realized that the humans are the weakest link," Peacock said. "It's easier to convince a human to do something through manipulation than it is to try and circumvent a technological control."BioCatch, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based firm that uses behavioral data from mobile apps and websites to help banks distinguish between real users and criminals, provided its findings to CNBC ahead of a report that culled information from 170 U.S. and Canadian institutions. The company said American Express,Barclays and HSBC are among its clients.Banks are under pressure to kick criminals off their platforms and compensate more victims as regulators and lawmakers focus on the harm done by digital scams. JPMorgan Chase,Bank of America and Wells Fargo have said the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau may punish them for their roles in the giant Zelle payments network. Customers of the three banks reported a combined $166 million in Zelle transactions were fraudulent in 2023.The rise of "social engineering scams," in which criminals use persuasive tactics to convince victims to send them money, began around five years ago, but "really started to take off" in the past 18 months or so, Peacock said.Zelle is the preferred way criminals extract their funds because it is faster than other remittance options, Peacock said."When social engineering scams really started to take off in the U.S., it kind of coincided with Zelle, because the two went together," he said. "Platforms like Zelle are enabling fraudsters to be a lot quicker and more successful."Zelle owner Early Warning Services has said that while transaction volumes rose in 2023, reports of scams and fraud fell by almost 50%, and that only a tiny fraction of payment volumes are disputed as fraud.The increase cited by BioCatch is also driven by greater identification of activity that the banks previously didn't flag as scams because of mounting regulatory pressure, Peacock added. BioCatch declined to provide a specific number for reported scams, citing client confidentiality. In another sign of the cat-and-mouse dynamic of cybercrime, BioCatch clients reported 59% fewer fraudulent account openings. Instead, criminals have focused on taking over existing bank accounts, leading to a threefold increase in fraud through that channel, the firm said.
Banks need to begin sharing information about sophisticated fraud - When I entered the fraud prevention space back in 2018, a typical fraud attack could take months to unfold. Now, it is not uncommon to see successful fraud schemes executed in just days. This acceleration not only challenges our existing risk strategies but also demands a new approach to fraud prevention altogether. As long as fraud-prevention efforts remain siloed and bank-specific, perpetrators remain free to employ the same strategies over and over. Banks need to do a better job of sharing information and collaborating.
South Korean police arrest 215 people in suspected $228m crypto scam -- South Korean police have arrested 215 people on suspicion of stealing 320bn won ($228.4m) in the biggest cryptocurrency investment scam in the country.Gyeonggi Nambu provincial police said on Wednesday that the arrests included the alleged mastermind of the organised crime group accused of selling 28 types of virtual tokens to about 15,000 people by promising high returns. Referred to as Mr A, he had fled to Australia but was arrested and extradited. Police have confiscated 22 bitcoins from his accounts and have applied to seize some $34m more. Just 12 people of the 215 remain in custody, according to Yonhap.Police said the group had issued six of the 28 tokens on overseas crypto exchanges and were managing a team of market makers to push up prices. Police described the tokens as “worthless”. Members of the alleged criminal ring are also accused of using personal information garnered through both digital advertising, including nearly 9m phone numbers, and theft to take out fraudulent loans.The group had set up investment consulting companies and sales teams to sell the virtual assets to people who had subscribed to a YouTube channel that had accrued hundreds of thousands of subscribers, the police statement said. They allegedly preyed on middle-aged and elderly victims.
Trump taps his former SEC chair for 'Sheriff of Wall Street' - President-elect Donald Trump is tapping former regulator Jay Clayton to be U.S. Attorney for Manhattan and two of his own criminal defense attorneys for powerful positions in the Justice Department, fleshing out his top picks to reshape American law enforcement. The president-elect has nominated Jay Clayton to be U.S. Attorney for Manhattan. Clayton has no experience as a federal prosecutor.
Trump's crypto push changes the game for banks -- President-elect Donald Trump's pledge to usher in an era of deregulation has been music to many bankers' ears after four years of heightened scrutiny under the Biden administration. The president-elect's deregulatory promises have drawn applause from banking groups, but some advisors warn that if the next administration extends that permissive posture to crypto, it could create significant headaches for banks.
BankThink: The election gives us the opportunity to rethink fintech regulation - Regardless of the outcome of this presidential election, everyone in financial services knew we were in for a change of presidential administration — new regulators, new priorities and ideally a fresh approach. Now it is clear that Republican control will return to the White House and both houses of Congress, and many state capitals will also see new administrations take the reins. A chance to rethink financial services regulation is here, and not a moment too soon. The incoming Trump administration, and state-level government across the country, should use the election as an opportunity to bring the supervisory treatment of fintech into line with the new reality of financial services.
Yes, simpler, higher capital requirements are a better capital rule -- By Thomas M. Hoenig - Every time we revise bank capital rules, we uncover new flaws that leave banks unprepared for unexpected stress events.
What payment firms want from real-time's next chapter -- The Clearing House's real-time payments network and the Federal Reserve's FedNow have gained hundreds of banks, but overall acceptance of instant settlement is still low, leading bankers at this week's Clearing House annual conference to question that path for future growth. Real-time payments and FedNow were top of mind at The Clearing House's annual conference this week. Here's how banks and payment companies see RTP's potential evolution.
FDIC softened stance toward troubled bank, postmortem finds --A postmortem report commissioned by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s Office of the Inspector General found examiners gave the troubled Republic First Bancorp a regulatory reprieve five months before it failed but neglected to properly document their reasons for doing so.A third-party examination of the Republic First Bancorp failure found FDIC staff softened their stance toward the troubled institution in the months before its failure without adequately documenting the reasons for the U-turn.The agency had been on the verge of downgrading Philadelphia-based Republic First Bancorp's CAMELS rating to the lowest level but opted for a less severe remedy after a November 2020 visit.
Co-founder of small California bank gets banned from the industry - Anthony Gressak III, who also served as interim CEO of Nano Banc, allegedly obtained pandemic relief funds fraudulently.
Fed's Waller: SCOTUS rulings should delay interchange rule -- The Federal Reserve Board's top payments official said the agency should not move forward with its push to lower the cap on debit interchange fees until it has a better understanding of recent Supreme Court decisions. A top official with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors wants a better understanding of recent Supreme Court decisions before the central bank changes its cap on debit interchange fees.
Trump's victory sets stage for potential changes at the Fed, CFPB - President-elect Donald Trump has cemented his return to the White House, beating banker predictions of Vice President Kamala Harris emerging victorious and sending stock markets into a frenzy. As President Joe Biden's time in office draws to a close, the banking industry is on the precipice of substantial change. President-elect Donald Trump beat banker predictions to surpass Vice President Kamala Harris on his way back to the White House, leaving many surprised but hopeful for a relaxed regulatory environment.
FSOC approach to nonbanks unlikely to change under Trump -- The Financial Stability Oversight Council's approach to systemic risks posed by nonbanks is unlikely to make a significant course correction in the next Trump administration, experts say, with the focus remaining on activities-based rules rather than individual firm designation. The incoming Trump administration is expected to prioritize an activities-based oversight approach to nonbank entities, just as the Biden administration has. It may also leave its designation power intact, but unused.
Swipe fees get renewed Washington focus in aftermath of election - Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., has scheduled a hearing on swipe fees for Nov. 19, but executives from Visa and Mastercard aren't among the confirmed witnesses for the lame duck hearing.
Warren will lead Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee -- With Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., occupied on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is one step closer to leading Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee.
FDIC says banking access grows, yet racial disparities remain - Mobile banking is now the primary access point for nearly half of U.S. households with bank accounts, according to the FDIC's 2023 National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households. The survey found that 48.3% of banked households rely mainly on mobile devices for their banking needs, reflecting a nearly ninefold increase in the past decade. The growth in mobile banking has lowered barriers to accessing the banking system, but the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s National Survey of the Unbanked and Underbanked released Tuesday reveals that minority households are still disproportionately underserved.
The CFPB wants states to subject banks to data privacy laws -- This week, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau warned that the exemptions to data privacy laws that banks, credit unions and lenders enjoy undermine consumer rights and suggested that states act. The bureau suggested this week that states should remove the exemptions banks enjoy from data privacy laws. California is a prime candidate to act.
Comerica sues CFPB over investigation into prepaid card program - Comerica Bank is suing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, alleging that a bureau investigation into the Dallas-based company's administration of a federal prepaid card program is unlawful. The Dallas-based bank is accusing the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau of "pursuing an aggressive and overreaching investigation" into its role in a Treasury Department prepaid card program.
Regulators should stop trying to 'whack' so-called junk fees – The term "junk fees" has proliferated in press articles over the last year or two. It is time to dispel the confusion surrounding this politically charged label, which often applies to the various fees banks find necessary to recoup current or expected losses. These fees, often characterized as excessive by consumer advocates, are actually a crucial part of a bank's revenue stream and are necessary to cover the costs of providing credit. Bank fees don't arise from a naked profit-grab, but from an effort to offset current or expected losses. Eliminating one kind of fee just pushes banks to find an alternative method of recouping those losses.
French Hill lays out 'Make Community Banking Great Again' plan - Rep. French Hill, R-Ark., a leading contender to lead the Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee, has pitched a vision for community banking policy under a Republican-led administration. The Arkansas Republican, who could be the next chairman of the top banking panel in the House, could find some areas of agreement with Democratic Senate Banking Committee ranking member Elizabeth Warren on issues like failed bank resolution reform.
BankThink America's smallest and largest community bank: $3 million vs. $3 trillion - Meet the nation's smallest bank: the $3 million Kentland Federal in rural Kentland, Indiana, halfway between Indianapolis and Chicago. Kentland has two employees and a proud history of serving its community since 1920. Think about the bank in "It's a Wonderful Life."With plans to open 100 banking centers in "banking deserts," the $3 trillion JPMorgan Chase is arguably the nation's largest community bank. Other big banks should take notice and follow suit, and regulators should encourage them.
Fed report: CRE loans, governance among top risks -Supervisors at the Federal Reserve are most concerned about rising delinquencies and governance issues at U.S. banks, according to the agency's latest supervision and regulation report. In its semiannual supervision and regulation report, the Federal Reserve flagged climbing loan delinquencies and a rising number of large bank citations for governance and controls.
Fed Q3 SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Mostly Tighter Standards and Weaker Demand for All Loan Types -- From the Federal Reserve: The October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending PracticesThe October 2024 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS) addressed changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households over the past three months, which generally correspond to the third quarter of 2024. Regarding loans to businesses over the third quarter, survey respondents reported, on balance, basically unchanged lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms and tighter standards for loans to small firms.2 Meanwhile, banks reported weaker demand for C&I loans to firms of all sizes. Furthermore, banks reported tighter standards and weaker demand for all commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories. For loans to households, banks reported, on balance, basically unchanged lending standards and weaker demand across most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. In addition, banks reported basically unchanged lending standards and demand for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs). Moreover, standards reportedly tightened for credit card loans and remained basically unchanged for auto and other consumer loans, while demand weakened for auto and other consumer loans and remained basically unchanged for credit card loans.This graph on Residential Real Estate demand is from the Senior Loan Officer Survey Charts. This graph is for demand and shows that demand has declined. The left graph is from 1990 to 2014. The right graph is from 2015 to Q3 2024.
NY Fed Q3 Report: Household Debt Increased; Delinquency Rate "Edged Up" --From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose Modestly; Delinquency Rates Remain Elevated - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $147 billion (0.8%) in Q3 2024, to $17.94 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations.“Although household balances continue to rise in nominal terms, growth in income has outpaced debt,” “Still, elevated delinquency rates reveal stress for many households, even amid some moderation in delinquency trends this quarter.” Mortgage balances increased by $75 billion from the previous quarter and reached $12.59 trillion at the end of September. HELOC balances increased by $7 billion, representing the tenth consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022, and stood at $387 billion. Credit card balances increased by $24 billion to $1.17 trillion. Auto loan balances saw a $18 billion increase and stood at $1.64 trillion. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, were effectively flat, with a $2 billion increase. Student loan balances grew by $21 billion, and now stand at $1.61 trillion.The pace of mortgage originations increased slightly from the pace observed in the previous four quarters, with $448 billion of newly originated mortgages in Q3. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts increased modestly by $63 billion, representing a 1.3% increase from the previous quarter. Limits on HELOC increased by $9 billion, the tenth consecutive quarterly increase. Aggregate delinquency rates edged up from the previous quarter, with 3.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Delinquency transition rates were mixed. Credit card delinquency rates improved, with 8.8% of balances transitioning to delinquency compared to 9.1% in the previous quarter. Early delinquency transitions for auto loans and mortgages worsened slightly, rising by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively. About 126,000 consumers had a bankruptcy notation added to their credit reports this quarter, a small decline from the previous quarter.Here are three graphs from the report:The first graph shows household debt increased in Q3. Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.From the NY Fed:Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $147 billion in the third quarter of 2024, a 0.8% rise from 2024Q2. Balances now stand at $17.94 trillion and have increased by $3.8 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.The overall delinquency rate increased in Q3. From the NY Fed: Aggregate delinquency rates edged up slightly in the third quarter of 2024. As of September, 3.5 percent of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, up from 3.2 percent in the second quarter. ... Delinquency transition rates were mixed. Credit card delinquency rates improved, with 8.8 percent of balances transitioning to delinquency at an annual rate compared to 9.1 percent in the previous quarter. Early delinquency transitions for auto loans and mortgages worsened slightly, rising by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively.The third graph shows Mortgage Originations by Credit Score.From the NY Fed: Credit quality of newly originated loans edged up slightly, with some improvements in the credit scores of newly originating auto loan and mortgage borrowers. Two-thirds of newly originated mortgages went to borrowers with credit scores above 760, while the share of auto loans opened by the highest credit score group borrowers hovered just below the long-term high, at 37%. There is much more in the report.
Household Debt, Delinquencies, Collections, Foreclosures, and Bankruptcies: Our Drunken Sailors and their Debts in Q3 2024 - by Wolf Richter - Total household debt outstanding ticked up by $147 billion in Q3, or by 0.8%, from Q2, to $17.9 trillion, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Fed today. Year-over-year, total household debt grew by 3.8%. Debt grew due to a mix of several factors:
- More borrowing capacity: Wage increases and the larger number of workers produced substantially higher overall personal income, which increased borrowing capacity.
- Higher prices: Homes, vehicles, and other goods and services that people finance got more expensive over the years — Home prices have exploded by about 50% since 2020; and consumer price inflation, as measured by CPI has surged by 22% over the same period, and those who borrowed to purchase homes and other things had to finance much larger amounts, but they had more income to do so.
All categories – mortgages, HELOCs, auto loans, credit cards, other revolving credit, and student loans – increased quarter-to-quarter and year-over-year. We’ll get into the details of each category in a series of separate articles over the next few days. Today, we look at the overall situation, along with delinquencies, collections, foreclosures, and bankruptcies. One of the ways to measure the overall burden of debt on households is to compare the debt levels to their income that is available to pay for debt service. We use “disposable income” for that purpose. That’s income from all sources except capital gains; so income from after-tax wages, plus from interest, dividends, rentals, farm income, small business income, transfer payments from the government, etc. This is essentially the cash that consumers have available to spend on housing, food, cars, debt payments, etc. And what they don’t spend, they save.Disposable income grew by 0.8% in Q3 from Q2, and by 5.5% year-over-year, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. So quarter-over-quarter, disposable income rose at the same pace as total consumer debts, and the burden of the debt remained the same; while year-over-year, disposable income rose nearly 2 percentage points faster than debt, and year-over-year the burden declined.The ratio of 82% in Q3 was historically low, bested by only a few quarters during the free-money-stimulus era that had briefly inflated disposable income beyond recognition.So the aggregate balance sheet of consumers is in good shape – the heavily leveraged entities in the US are the federal government and businesses, not consumers.But in the runup to the Financial Crisis, consumers were mightily overleveraged, with debt-to-disposable-income ratios exceeding 115%, and then the leverage blew a fuse. Our Drunken Sailors, as we’ve come to call them lovingly and facetiously, have learned a lesson and have become a sober bunch, most of them, not all. A small portion of our Drunken Sailors is always in trouble, they have subprime credit scores because they’ve been late with their payments, have defaulted on their obligations, etc. Subprime doesn’t mean “low income,” it means “bad credit,” and goes across the income spectrum. They’re a relatively small portion of consumers. And they’re always in flux: Some people get into trouble, and their credit scores drop to subprime, while others are working their way out of subprime as they cure their credit problems. But the vast majority of our Drunken Sailors are keeping their credit in decent to excellent shape.Household debts that were 90 days or more delinquent by the end of Q3 remained unchanged for the third month in a row, at a historically low 1.8% of total balances outstanding, lower than any time before the free-money-era of the pandemic.The drop during the free-money era and then the climb back to what are still historically low levels forms what we’ve been calling a frying-pan pattern that is now cropping up a lot in the world of debt problems:There were 41,520 consumers with foreclosures in Q3, down from 47,180 in Q2, and compared to 65,000 to 90,000 in the years 2017 through 2019. Outside of the free-money and mortgage-forbearance era during the pandemic, which reduced the number of foreclosures to near zero, there was never a period in the data with fewer foreclosures. And this frying-pan pattern makes sense: After three years of ballooning home prices, most homeowners, if they get in trouble, can sell their home for more than they owe on it, pay off the mortgage, and walk away with some cash, and their credit intact. It’s only when home prices spiral down for years, combined with high unemployment rates, that foreclosures become a problem.
NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low --Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: NY Fed: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Delinquencies Increase, Foreclosures Remain Low --The NY Fed released the Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are three charts from the report.The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760. Solid underwriting is a key reason I’ve argued Don't Compare the Current Housing Boom to the Bubble and Bust, Look instead at the 1978 to 1982 period for lessons. From the NY Fed:Mortgage originations, measured as appearances of new mortgages on consumer credit reports and including both refinance and purchase originations, increased slightly from the pace of newly opened mortgages observed in the previous four quarters, with $448 billion of newly originated in 2024Q3. … Limits on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) increased by $9 billion, the tenth consecutive quarterly increase.Credit quality of newly originated loans edged up slightly, with some improvements in the credit scores of newly originating auto loan and mortgage borrowers. Two-thirds of newly originated mortgages went to borrowers with credit scores above 760, while the share of auto loans opened by the highest credit score group borrowers hovered just below the long-term high, at 37%. A possible concern is the increase in transition rates from current to 30-60 days late. This has been steadily increasing since mortgage rates increased and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. Further increases would be a little worrisome. Although the transition rate to delinquency is increasing, foreclosures remain historically low and well below pre-pandemic levels There is much more in the report.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -- From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 8, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 2 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent higher than the same week one year ago.“Mortgage rates continued to increase last week, driven by higher Treasury yields as financial markets digested the likely impacts of a Trump presidency. The Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut was already anticipated and did little to move the markets,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30-year fixed rate was at 6.86 percent last week, its highest since July 2024. However, despite the increase in rates, applications increased for the first time in seven weeks.” “Purchase applications picked up and remained close to levels from a year ago. FHA and VA purchase applications drove the stronger overall purchase activity, increasing 3 percent and 9 percent, respectively. FHA mortgage rates bucked the overall trend and were lower over the week, which likely helped some borrowers. Conventional purchase applications were also up slightly. Meanwhile, the upward climb in rates led to refinance activity falling to its lowest level since May 2024.” ...The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.86 percent from 6.81 percent, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.68 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 1% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 6% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 12% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September but has decreased as rates moved back up.Housing Nov 4th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.9% Week-over-week, Up 27.3% Year-over-year - Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 1.9% week-over-week. Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 27.3% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 29.8%), and down 19.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 19.4%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is almost two-thirds closed. This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Nov 8th, inventory was at 722 thousand (7-day average), compared to 736 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 26.1% YoY --- Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 29.2% YoY, but still down 21.1% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 26.1% YoY. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data for Week Ending Nov. 9, 2024• Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 26.1% above year-ago levels For the 53rd consecutive week, the number of listings for sale has grown year over year. This week’s growth was lower than last week’s, the seventh week of slowing growth, and the lowest annual change since late March. Slowing listing activity and stifled buyer demand have resulted in slowing inventory growth.
• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—climbed 1.7% this week compared with one year ago The number of new listings on the market picked up compared with the same week last year. The recent upward trajectory of mortgage rates could largely discourage sellers from listing their homes as roughly 84% of outstanding mortgages have a rate of 6% or lower.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com. Inventory was up year-over-year for the 53rd consecutive week. However, inventory is still historically low.New listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels.
Watch Months-of-Supply! - Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months - and that is unlikely any time soon - however, as expected, months-of-supply is above 2019 levels. Months-of-supply was at 4.3 months in September compared to 4.0 months in September 2019. Even though inventory has declined significantly compared to 2019, sales have fallen even more - pushing up months-of-supply. The following graph shows months-of-supply since 2017. Note that months-of-supply is higher than the last 5 years (2019 - 2023), and just below the level in September 2018. Months-of-supply was at 4.2 in September 2017 and 4.4 in September 2018. In 2020 (black), months-of-supply increased at the beginning of the pandemic and then declined sharply.
Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased 5% in October; Up Sharply YoY - From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Retreats 5% in October The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, decreased 5.3% in October to 197.2 (2000=100) from the revised September reading of 208.2. Over the month, commercial planning fell 6.7% and institutional planning declined 2.0%. “In addition to data center planning normalizing, a moderate pullback in the number of planning projects for several other nonresidential sectors also contributed to the decline in the Dodge Momentum Index for October,” stated Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Regardless, owners and developers remain confident in next year’s market conditions and the planning queue remains poised to spur stronger construction activity in 2025, following deeper rate cuts by the Fed.” Most commercial categories faced declines throughout October, aside from hotel planning – which continued to gain momentum. On the institutional side, education and public planning activity expanded, offset by weaker activity in healthcare, recreational and religious projects. This month, the DMI was 13% higher than in October of 2023. The commercial segment was up 18% from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was up 3% over the same period. The influence of data centers on the DMI this year has been substantial. If we remove all data center projects from January to October, commercial planning would be down 4% from year-ago levels, and the entire DMI would be down 2%. ... The DMI is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. This graph shows the Dodge Momentum Index since 2002. The index was at 197.2 in October, down from 208.2 the previous month. According to Dodge, this index leads "construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year". This index suggests a slowdown in early 2025, but a pickup in mid-2025. Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator.
Annual inflation rate hit 2.6% in October, meeting expectations - Inflation perked up in October though pretty much in line with Wall Street expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.The consumer price index, which measures costs across a spectrum of goods and services, increased 0.2% for the month. That took the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6%, up 0.2 percentage point from September.The readings were both in line with the Dow Jones estimates.Excluding food and energy, the move was even more pronounced. The core CPI accelerated 0.3% for the month and was at 3.3% annually, also meeting forecasts. Stock market futures nudged higher following the release while Treasury yields fell. Following the release, traders sharply raised the odds that the Federal Reserve will cut its key interest rate by another quarter percentage point in December.Energy costs, which had been declining in recent months, were flat in October while the food index increased 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, energy was off 4.9% while food was up 2.1%.Despite signs of inflation moderating elsewhere, shelter prices continued to be a major contributor to the CPI move. The shelter index, which carries about a one-third weighting in the broader index, climbed another 0.4% in October, double its September move and up 4.9% on an annual basis. The category was responsible for more than half the gain in the all-items CPI measure, according to the BLS. Used vehicle costs also rose, up 2.7% on the month while motor vehicle insurance declined 0.1% but was still higher by 14% for the 12-month period. Airline fares jumped 3.2% while eggs tumbled 6.4% but were still 30.4% higher from a year ago. Inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for workers increased 0.1% for the month and 1.4% from a year ago, the BLS said in a separate report. The readings took inflation further away from the Federal Reserve's 2% goal and could complicate the central bank's monetary policy strategy going forward, particularly with a new administration taking over the White House in January."No surprises from the CPI, so for now the Fed should be on course to cut rates again in December. Next year is a different story, though, given the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and other Trump administration policies," said Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. "The markets are already weighing the possibility that the Fed will cut fewer times in 2025 than previously thought, and that they may hit the pause button as early as January."
BLS: CPI Increased 0.2% in October; Core CPI increased 0.3% -- From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, the same increase as in each of the previous 3 months, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.6 percent before seasonal adjustment.The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase. The food index also increased over the month, rising 0.2 percent as the food at home index increased 0.1 percent and the food away from home index rose 0.2 percent. The energy index was unchanged over the month, after declining 1.9 percent in September.The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in August and September. Indexes that increased in October include shelter, used cars and trucks, airline fares, medical care, and recreation. The indexes for apparel, communication, and household furnishings and operations were among those that decreased over the month.The all items index rose 2.6 percent for the 12 months ending October, after rising 2.4 percent over the 12 months ending September. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index decreased 4.9 percent for the 12 months ending October. The food index increased 2.1 percent over the last year. The change in CPI was at expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.
Core Consumer Prices Rise For 53rd Straight Month, Hit New Record High - The inflation story is far from over... no matter what The Fed or The White House claims... For the 53rd straight month, core consumer prices rose on a MoM basis in October with the YoY pace re-accelerating to +3.33%... Graphics Source: Bloomberg Services costs are starting to pick up again...The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in August and September.
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The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in October.
- The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent and the index for rent rose 0.3 percent over the month.
- The lodging away from home index rose 0.4 percent in October, after falling 1.9 percent in September.
- The medical care index increased 0.3 percent over the month after increasing 0.4 percent in September. The index for physicians’ services increased 0.5 percent in October and the prescription drugs index rose 0.2 percent over the month.
- The used cars and trucks index rose 2.7 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in the previous month.
- The index for airline fares rose 3.2 percent over the month and the index for recreation increased 0.4 percent.
- Other indexes that increased in October include personal care and education.
- The index for apparel fell 1.5 percent in October, following a 1.1-percent increase the preceding month.
- The communication index decreased 0.6 percent over the month, as it did in September.
- The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for motor vehicle insurance also declined in October.
- The new vehicles index was unchanged over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.
- The shelter index increased 4.9 percent over the last year, accounting for over 65 percent of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.
- Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+14.0 percent), medical care (+3.3 percent), education (+3.8 percent), and personal care (+2.5 percent).
The headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) which reaccelerated the YoY rise to +2.6% (as expected)..
Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.3% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.3% in October - The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report". This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 4.1% (unchanged from 4.1% in September), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (unchanged from 3.2%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.2% (unchanged from 3.2%). Core PCE is for September was up 2.7% YoY, unchanged from 2.7% in August. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details. Used cars increased at a 38% annual rate in October.
YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter - Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but is still elevated, and is now up 4.5% YoY. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through September 2024. Services were up 4.7% YoY as of October 2024, unchanged from 4.7% YoY in September. Services less rent of shelter was up 4.5% YoY in October, up from 4.4% YoY in September. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -2.5% YoY as of October 2024, up from -2.9% YoY in September. Commodities less food and energy commodities were at -1.2% YoY in October, unchnaged from -1.2% YoY in September. Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report (through October) and housing from the PCE report (through September.) Shelter was up 4.9% year-over-year in October, up from 4.8% in September. Housing (PCE) was up 5.1% YoY in September, down from 5.3% in August. The BLS noted this morning: "The index for shelter rose 0.4 percent in October, accounting for over half of the monthly all items increase." This is still catching up with private data. Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.0% YoY in October.
Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations - Wholesale prices nudged higher in October, though largely in line with expectations and mostly consistent with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates again in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday.The producer price index, which measures what producers get for their products, increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September though matching the Dow Jones consensus forecast. On a 12-month basis, headline wholesale inflation was at 2.4%.Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.3%, also one-tenth more than September and also matching expectations. The 12-month rate was at 3.1%.Though the readings are above the Fed's 2% inflation goal, the trend is showing that price increases are generally moderating and inflation is being pushed by isolated factors.Services rose 0.3% on the month, accounting for most of the PPI increase, and was driven largely by a 3.6% surge in portfolio management prices. Food prices fell 0.2% on the month while energy was off by 0.3%. Goods prices nudged higher by 0.1% after falling the previous two months.Markets reacted little to the news, with stock futures pointing to a mixed open while Treasury yields held higher.Traders expect the Fed to follow up rate cuts in September and November with another quarter percentage point reduction at the Dec. 17-18 meeting. After that, market pricing points to the Fed skipping January and moving at a slower easing pace through 2025.The market-implied probability for a December rate cut nudged down to 76.1% following the release, an area that still indicates a strong likelihood, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge of futures prices.In other economic news Thursday, the Labor Department reported that the pace of layoffs continued to moderate after a brief spike.Initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled 217,000 for the week ended Nov. 9, down 4,000 from the previous period and slightly lower than the 220,000 estimate.Continuing claims, which run a week behind, totaled 1.873 million, down 11,000 from the prior week.
PPI Unexpectedly Prints Hotter Than Expected Across The Board - After yesterday's in line - but really cooler than whispered - CPI which restored hope in a December rate cut, all eyes are on this morning's PPI print to boost dovish hopes that the Fed's easing cycle would remain on track. It was not meant to be, however, as the PPI came in hotter than expected across the board on both a monthly and annual basis. Starting at the top, headline PPI rose 0.2% MoM (in line with the +0.2% expected) but September was revised higher from 0.0% to 0.1%; meanwhile on an annual basis, headline PPI rose 2.4%, higher than the 2.3% expected, with the last month also revised higher from 1.8% to 1.9%.Unlike last month when a drop in energy prices weighed heavily on the headline PPI number, this month energy subtracted just 0.02% from the final print, the lowest detraction since July. Meanwhile, Services added a hefty 0.179% to the bottom line number. Indeed, according to the BLS, most of the rise in final demand prices can be traced to a 0.% advance in the index for final demand services. Prices for final demand goods inched up 0.1%, the first increase in the index since July. Taking a closer look at the components:
- Final demand services: The index for final demand services increased 0.3 percent in October after rising 0.2 percent in September. Over three-fourths of the broad-based advance in October is attributable to prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing, which moved up 0.3 percent. The indexes for final demand transportation and warehousing services and for final demand trade services also increased, 0.5 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.)b Product detail:
- Over one-third of the rise in the index for final demand services can be traced to prices for portfolio management, which advanced 3.6 percent. The indexes for machinery and vehicle wholesaling; airline passenger services; computer hardware, software, and supplies retailing; outpatient care (partial); and cable and satellite subscriber services also moved higher.
- In contrast, margins for apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing fell 3.7 percent. Prices for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services and for truck transportation of freight also declined.
- Final demand goods: The index for final demand goods inched up 0.1 percent in October following two consecutive decreases. The advance can be traced to a 0.3-percent rise in prices for final demand goods less foods and energy. Conversely, the indexes for final demand energy and for final demand foods declined 0.3 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. Product detail:
- An 8.4-percent increase in the index for carbon steel scrap was a major factor in the advance in prices for final demand goods. The indexes for meats, diesel fuel, fresh and dry vegetables, and oilseeds also moved higher.
- In contrast, prices for liquefied petroleum gas fell 18.1 percent. The indexes for chicken eggs, processed poultry, and ethanol also decreased.
After More Up-Revisions, “Core” PPI & “Core Services” PPI Inflation Get Much Worse, Accelerating All Year – by Wolf Richter -- As has been the case here before, the prior months’ data of the Producer Price Index were revised higher today, and on top of that came the accelerating price increases in October. Energy prices continued to drop month-to-month, and food prices turned around and dropped month-to-month, and so that helped overall PPI, but it still accelerated to 2.4% year-over-year in October, compared to an increase of 1.9% in September. It was driven by the services PPI, which has been on an uptrend all year, and further accelerated to +3.5% year-over-year in October, compared to increases below 2% at the end of 2023. And it pushed the core PPI to an increase of +3.1% year-over-year, when it had been below 2% at the end of last year. The PPI tracks inflation in goods and services that companies buy and whose cost increases they ultimately try to pass on to their customers. The culprit is services. The PPI for final demand services accelerated to 3.2% month-to-month annualized in October. September was revised higher today to +2.3% annualized from the unrevised +2.0% reported a month ago, seasonally adjusted, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today. Prior months were revised higher as well. This fits into the overall theme that inflation switched from goods to services in 2022, and has gotten sticky there, as we saw yesterday in the Consumer Price Index, where the services CPI increased by 4.3% annualized. Services are the majority of the economy and of the inflation indices. Drivers of the month-to-month increase of the services PPI were portfolio management; machinery and vehicle wholesaling; airline passenger services; retailing of computer hardware, software, and supplies; outpatient care; cable and satellite subscriber services; transportation and warehousing services; and trade services. Year-over-year, the services PPI accelerated to 3.5% in October. The September reading was revised higher to 3.3%, from 3.1% as reported a month ago. August was revised higher to 3.0% from 2.6% as originally reported two months ago, and then a month ago revised higher to 2.9%. These revisions in the services PPI are ratcheting the whole scale higher. The freak drop in July in the chart below was caused by the month-to-month reading of July 2023 of +9.9% annualized falling out of the 12-month period, and being replaced by the -2.5% reading of July 2024. “Finished core goods” PPI has been tame. Many goods prices have been falling. The PPI for “finished core goods” includes finished goods that companies buy but excludes food and energy products. The core goods PPI rose by 1.5% annualized in October from September, down from 2.4% in September and from 3.7% in August. Year-over-year, the finished core goods PPI was roughly stable at 2.4% in October (rounded to the second decimal, 2.44%, it was, the highest since December 2023). The index has been all year in the upper portion of the pre-pandemic range. As we have seen in the CPI as well, there have been no major inflation pressures in core goods in over a year. Inflation has gotten sticky in services. And core goods have been a big factor – along with the plunge in energy prices – in holding overall inflation down. “Core” PPI accelerated to 3.1% month-to-month annualized in October. September was revised higher to 2.1% (from 1.9% as reported a month ago). Year-over-year, core PPI rose by 3.1%, and September was revised higher to 2.9% (from 2.8% reported a month earlier). The overall PPI for final demand accelerated sharply to 2.4%, compared to 1.9% in September (revised from 1.8% as reported a month earlier). The plunge in energy prices since mid-2022 has kept the index down in the normal pre-pandemic range and has papered over the inflationary forces in services. But energy prices cannot plunge forever.
Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in 14% YoY in October -This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the October 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 477 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."Heavy truck sales declined sharply at the beginning of the pandemic, falling to a low of 288 thousand SAAR in May 2020. Heavy truck sales were at 390 thousand SAAR in October, down from 476 thousand in September, and down 14.4% from 455 thousand SAAR in October 2023. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession. This is just one month, and sales might have been impacted by the hurricanes (and could be revised up).Meanwhile, as I mentioned earlier, light vehicle sales increased in October.The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. Vehicle sales were at 16.04 million SAAR in October, up from 15.77 million in September, and up 4.5% from 15.34 million in October 2023.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 217,000 -- The DOL reported: In the week ending November 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 221,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 227,250. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 221,000. The previous week was unrevised. Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.
Initial Jobless Claims Drop To The Lowest In 6 Months --At the exact same time that the latest PPI print came in well hotter than expected, Biden's outgoing Dept of Labor came out revealed even more hawkish data, reporting that as the impacts of the hurricanes has largely worn off, initial jobless claims dropped last week to 217k (from 221k) - below the 220K consensus estimate - and the lowest since May. For the second week in a row, the biggest increase in claims was in California which was not only the outlier state this month, but its claims were estimated by the DOL. On the other end, the number of initial claims dropped the most in Florida and Georgia. In fact, both North Carolina (Helene) and Florida (Milton) have seen claims revert to pre-Hurricane norms... Continuing claims also fell from a downward revised 1884K (vs 1892K pre revision) to 1873K, but still holding near the highest since Dec 2022. What is also notable is that as BBG's Michael McDonough notes, "job cut" discussions are not meaningfully increasing in S&P earnings calls: So PPI hot, and jobless claims at a fresh six month low - not the kind of data that The Fed doves want to see to justify another rate-cut... although now that Trump is in the White House, we are confident the Fed will have far fewer scruples about calling it a "Fed Accompli" (sic) and ending its easing cycle after 2 rate cuts.
Bad day for Alex Jones as The Onion buys Infowars - No joke, this time. Satirical publication The Onion has purchased Infowars and all of its assets at auction, dealing a final blow to internet rabble-rouser Alex Jones’ conspiracy empire. The acquisition, announced Thursday, came with the support of families of children who were killed in the Sandy Hook school shooting, who had previously won a $1.4 billion defamation verdict against Jones, whose radio show promoted conspiracies claiming the massacre was a “hoax” involving paid “crisis actors.”Twenty children and six adults were killed by a shooter during the 2012 school shooting in Newtown, Connecticut. The families of eight of the victims supported the sale to The Onion and “agreed to forgo a portion of their recovery to increase the overall value of The Onion’s bid, enabling its success,” according to a statement from the law firm representing the families.“The world needs to see that having a platform does not mean you are above accountability — the dissolution of Alex Jones’ assets and the death of Infowars is the justice we have long awaited and fought for,” Robbie Parker, whose daughter Emilie was killed in the shooting, said in the statement. The Onion said it will immediately shut down Infowars — which peddled a litany of conspiracy theories while also hawking supplements — and work with the gun safety organization Everytown for Gun Safety to transition it into a humor site, which it said would launch in January.“The Onion is proud to acquire Infowars, and we look forward to continuing its tradition of scaring the site’s users with lies until they fork over their cold, hard cash,” said CEO Ben Collins. He added: “We hope the Sandy Hook families will be able to marvel at the cosmic joke we will soon make InfoWars.com.”The sale price was not disclosed.Jones, an ardent supporter of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, confirmed the acquisition Thursday, calling the sale “tyranny of the new world order” in a video posted to X and promising legal challenges.“I’m gonna be in here until they come in here and turn the lights off,” he said.
School Districts That Spent COVID-19 Money Hiring Now Grapple With Layoffs - Around this time last year, Franklin Central School in upstate New York faced a $1.46 million budget gap and painful choices: Push for a double-digit tax increase, lay off teachers, or send high school students to a neighboring district.The state was dealing with its own financial issues and reserved the right to shift state aid amounts based on demographics, regardless of the short notice. Franklin was ultimately held harmless, a legal term for being released from responsibility; its state aid remained at $4.6 million, or about 56 percent of the district’s 2024 to 2025 budget. With state aid flat, there was still a 4 percent tax hike, and $200,000 was applied from the district’s reserve fund. Some positions were eliminated through attrition, and Franklin partnered with neighboring districts to share staff in limited circumstances. But at least no jobs were lost, and the older kids weren’t sent away, Superintendent Bryan Ayres said.The school building serves fewer than 200 K–12 students in a low-income rural area in New York state’s southern tier region west of the Catskill Mountains. It had three seniors in its class of 2023. The per-pupil expenditure rate is about $35,800, according to the district website.“The hold harmless piece is critical for us,” Ayres told The Epoch Times, adding that community organizations use the school building for events on evenings and weekends. “The loss of a million dollars in state aid would cripple the community.”Ayres said that during the pandemic, Franklin spent its federal Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ESSER) funds, more than $1 million, on equipment and services, not additional staff the district couldn’t pay after federal money went away.Districts across the nation that used ESSER to bolster staff and hire teachers during the pandemic now face a fiscal cliff, but unlike Franklin, they won’t be held harmless for their circumstances or prior spending decisions. ESSER funding, which totaled $190 billion over three years, expired in September.The U.S. Government Accountability Office reported on Oct. 23 that more than half of ESSER funds were spent on salaries and benefits.
Judge blocks Louisiana law on Ten Commandments in schools -- A federal judge on Tuesday blocked a Louisiana law requiring that the Ten Commandments be displayed in all public school classrooms. U.S. District Judge John deGravelles granted a preliminary injunction to a coalition of parents that sued the state, meaning Louisiana will not be allowed to require the Ten Commandments in classrooms while the case plays out in court. The group of parents, who come from different religious backgrounds and are supported by multiple civil rights groups, argued in court that the law infringes on their First Amendment rights to dictate their child’s religious upbringing. In his ruling, deGravelles said he believed the plaintiffs would be “irreparably harmed” by the law going into place due to it violating the First Amendment. Louisiana became the first state in the nation earlier this year to require the religious text to go up in all K-12 public schools in “large, easily readable font.” The posters would also include three paragraphs explaining why the Ten Commandments is relevant to American history. “This ruling should serve as a reality check for Louisiana lawmakers who want to use public schools to convert children to their preferred brand of Christianity,” said Heather L. Weaver, senior staff attorney for the Program on Freedom of Religion and Belief at the American Civil Liberties Union, one of the groups supporting the parents in their challenge. “Public schools are not Sunday schools, and today’s decision ensures that our clients’ classrooms will remain spaces where all students, regardless of their faith, feel welcomed.” Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry (R) had said he expected the new law to cause a legal battle after he signed it in June. “Look, when the Supreme Court meets, the doors of the Supreme Court on the backside have the Ten Commandments. Moses faces the U.S. Speaker of the House in the House chamber. He is the original giver of law,” Landry said. “Most of our laws in this country are founded on the Ten Commandments, what’s the big problem? And that’s the part I don’t understand.” The state had sought to have posters of the Ten Commandments up by Jan. 1. The law has been supported by Republicans, including President-elect Trump, who has previously said he wants prayer back in school.
Court temporarily limits scope of ruling for Louisiana’s Ten Commandments law (AP) — A federal appeals court in New Orleans on Friday temporarily limited the scope of a ruling that Louisiana’s law requiring public schools to post the Ten Commandments in all classrooms next year is unconstitutional. U.S. District Judge John deGravelles’ ruling that the law is unconstitutional remains in effect under the order from the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. However, the appellate court temporarily blocked a part of the ruling that requires state education officials to notify public schools statewide that the law has been struck down. State attorneys said in an emergency stay motion filed Wednesday that deGravelles’ finding that the commandments posting requirement is unconstitutional only affects five local school systems that are defendants in the case. They said deGravelles overstepped his authority when he ordered that schools in all 72 districts be notified of his finding. They asked that the notification requirement be paused immediately while they appeal all of deGravelles’ order. That broader appeal was filed later Friday night. Friday’s 5th Circuit order was a temporary “administrative stay” granted in response to the state’s emergency request. The order may be altered or lifted as the appeal progresses. Judges Jerry Smith, nominated to the court by former President Ronald Reagan, and Kurt Engelhardt, nominated by former President Donald Trump, voted to grant the stay in a one-sentence order. A footnote said Judge James Graves, nominated by former President Barack Obama, would have denied the stay.The law specifies a version of the Ten Commandments must be posted in all Louisiana public classrooms from K-12 and at public universities by Jan. 1. It was passed by the Republican-dominated Legislature this year and signed by Republican Gov. Jeff Landry in June.DeGravelles ruled Tuesday that the law was “overtly religious” and “unconstitutional on its face.” He said state Superintendent of Education Cade Brumley and the state education board — who are defendants in the lawsuit — can take no steps to implement the law. And he told them to notify all school boards that it has been found unconstitutional.
Punctuation is dead because the iPhone keyboard killed it - Open any social media site today, and you’ll find a slew of tweets, shorts, messages, videos, photos, and more — almost all written with lower capital letters and barely any punctuation. For me, that phenomenon started as a fun observation many years ago, became very irritating as I noticed it more and more, and eventually settled into an unavoidable reality. People these days don’t use punctuation like they should, despite how much this can irk sticklers for grammar like me. This is especially true for the younger generations, who grew up in the mobile-first age with a smartphone in their hands before they ever saw a full physical QWERTY keyboard. But I posit that the trend isn’t due to some teenage rebellion, coolness factor, informal texting, or lack of understanding of what the Shift or Caps Lock key can do. No, I think the real reason is a mix of laziness and smartphone use, particularly the iPhone and its terrible keyboard without accessible period or comma keys. See, even the most grammar-fanatic user, like me, ends up dreading using punctuation when it takes extra taps to add it. I’ve noticed this so often because I always use Gboard on my Android phones, so I punctuate my sentences properly. But on the rare occasion that I dig out my test iPhone 13 to check an app or feature, I end up hating every second of my typing experience because of how tedious it is to add periods or commas to my sentences. So I start skipping them here and there — sometimes, everywhere. So much so that the auto-capitalization stops getting triggered, and I end up with very Gen Z-looking sentences with a random string of lower-cap words separated by nothing more than spaces.By hiding the comma and period behind a symbol switch, the iPhone keyboard encourages the biggest grammar fiends to be lazy and skip punctuation.
Pundits will say that it’s just an extra tap to add a period (double-tap the space bar) or a comma (switch to the characters layout and tap comma), but it’s one extra tap too many. When you’re firing off replies and messages at a rapid rate, the jarring pause while the keyboard switches to symbols and then switches back to letters is just too annoying, especially if you’re doing it multiple times in one message. I hate pausing mid-sentence so much that I will sacrifice a comma at the altar of speed.Of course, those of us with Android phones know that this extra pause and switch is so unnecessary, too. It’s been over a decade since Apple released the first iteration of its keyboard on iOS, and the fact that it’s still absolutely horrid to this day in iOS 18 is unforgivable. Especially when Gboard — and other Android keyboards — have proven again and again that the two extra keys for the comma and period still look perfectly good, remain perfectly usable, and add functionality instead of removing it. Apple, however, seems steadfast in its conviction that form trumps function, so the silly iOS keyboard remains a big annoyance for any grammar fiend. Plus, it’s cooler to develop Apple Intelligence than fix a keyboard, eh?The real problem, at the end of the day, is that iPhones — not Android phones — are popular among Gen Z buyers, especially in the US — a market with a huge online presence and influence. Add that most smartphone users tend to stick to default apps on their phones, so most of them end up with the default iPhone keyboard instead of looking at better (albeit often even slower) alternatives. And it’s that same keyboard that’s encouraging them to be lazy instead of making it easier to add punctuation.So yes, I blame the iPhone for killing the period and slaughtering the comma, and I think both of those are great offenders in the death of the capital letter. But trends are cyclical, and if the cassette player can make a comeback, so can the comma. Who knows, maybe in a year or two, writing like a five-year-old will be passé, too, and it’ll be trendy to use proper grammar again.
MIT suspends student and bans magazine for article opposing Gaza genocide - Last Friday, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) issued an immediate “interim” suspension of graduate student Prahlad Iyengar for penning an article titled “On Pacifism” in an MIT student magazine, Written Revolution, opposing Israel’s genocide against the people of Gaza. The publication itself has been banned from campus. Zionist groups and the MIT administration have falsely claimed the article incites violence and have attempted to paint Iyengar as a terrorist. The article, which appeared in the fifth edition of the magazine, which is an American Sociological Association-recognized publication, does nothing of the sort as is obvious from the text of the article itself which is academic in character. The World Socialist Web Site opposes this flagrant attack on free speech and academic freedom and calls on workers, students and youth to demand the immediate rescinding of all administrative measures against Iyengar. As Iyengar wrote in a statement opposing the ban, “The administration has also banned Written Revolution outright, meaning students who disseminate or read this publication on campus may face discipline.” Some students reading the magazine were approached by the police. According to a recording of the call made to police, it was to stop the handing out “banned pamphlets.” Students face Orwellian disciplinary actions for distributing or merely reading the article on campus. In an interview with the WSWS Iyengar stated “This is an attack on very many different fronts. The question I have is ‘where does it end?’ The Zionists designate all sorts of people as terrorists, including UNRWA. Are they going to categorize UN members as terrorists? Poets as terrorists? MIT by banning me from campus has banned any sort of academic debate.” The suspension and ban represent an escalation of the bipartisan campaign led by the Biden administration and Democratic Party against opposition on the campuses to the Gaza genocide. It takes place after over 186,000 people in Gaza have been massacred by Israel, according to an estimate by The Lancet from July. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has warned that everyone in northern Gaza “is at imminent risk of dying,” while there is a massive and unprecedented amount of photographic and video evidence both from the victims and killers themselves on social media documenting the genocide, which could correctly be described as the first live-streamed genocide in history. Iyengar, a second-year electrical engineering Ph.D. student, was summarily banned from campus under the bogus justification that he presented an immediate risk of violence, with the administration falsely claiming his article supports “terrorism.” This was done solely on the basis of anonymous allegations by Zionist students’ claims that statements in the article “could be interpreted as a call for more violent or destructive forms of protest at MIT.” The rule for interim banning of students is ostensibly aimed only at those who actually present a risk of violence, like those suspected of rape, murder or assault. This is clearly not the case. Essentially no evidence has been presented beyond a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) poster being used as an illustration in Iyengar’s article. The administration falsely used this to claim that the article supported terrorism. The banning opens a veritable Pandora’s Box of avenues for censorship, meaning all manner of media from textbooks and dictionaries which have pictures of real or supposed “terrorist” organizations to documentaries and non-fiction books and even news articles in the mainstream press could be banned.
University of Michigan moves to ban local chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine On Thursday evening, Students Allied for Freedom and Equality (SAFE UMich), the University of Michigan chapter of Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP), posted a statement on its Instagram account and the national SJP Twitter/X account announcing that the university had filed a complaint and was threatening to suspend SAFE as a student club. SAFE noted that the complaint marked the first-ever attempt by the University of Michigan administration to suspend a legacy organization at its Ann Arbor campus. The International Youth and Students for Social Equality (IYSSE), the youth section of the Socialist Equality Party, denounces this witch-hunting attack on SAFE and on the democratic rights of all students, faculty and staff at the university. It is a direct attack on free speech and the right to peacefully protest, and marks an escalation of the nationwide attack on students and others who seek to oppose the Israeli genocide that is being armed, funded and overseen by the United States against the people of Gaza. The IYSSE at UMich demands the immediate rescinding of the complaint and unconditionally defends the right of the pro-Palestinian organization to function politically at the university. This attack is bound up with a series of anti-democratic changes made by the UMich administration to its code of conduct. Earlier this year, the university administration unveiled changes to its policies that allow the university to file a complaint against a student or organization with practically no restrictions. This, in turn, followed the adoption of policies allowing the administration to ban any protest or gathering it deemed “disruptive.” Additionally, the new conduct policies no longer guarantee an accused student or organization the right to request an appeals panel of students, faculty and staff, erasing due process. The threat to suspend SAFE at UMich is only the latest anti-democratic attempt to muzzle the opposition to US/Israeli genocide among workers and youth. In October 2023, Brandeis University in Waltham, Massachusetts became the first private university to ban an SJP chapter from campus, based on fraudulent charges of antisemitism. The university libeled students opposing the Gaza genocide as celebrating “the barbaric killing of Jews just because they are Jews.” Just days later, Columbia University in New York followed Brandeis, banning its local SJP chapter alongside the Columbia chapter of the anti-Zionist Jewish student group, Jewish Voice for Peace (JVP). Far-right Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has also banned the SJP throughout the state university system. The UMich administration’s attack on SAFE follows revelations in a Guardian report published in late October detailing how the UMich Board of Regents recruited Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel (Democrat) to investigate and charge protesters involved in the pro-Palestinian encampment established on the UMich Ann Arbor campus last semester. According to the Guardian report, Nessel’s campaign for reelection as Michigan attorney general in 2022 received substantial funding from several UMich regents, as well as from Zionist forces among state politicians, organizations and UMich donors, all of whom have publicly denounced the anti-genocide protests as antisemitic. The UMich regents—wealthy financiers, politicians and business owners—are predominantly aligned with the Democratic Party. In September, Nessel’s office announced it was charging 11 protesters involved in the encampment, the majority being students and campus workers. Seven were charged with trespassing and obstructing a police officer. The latter charge is a felony carrying a maximum two-year sentence. The others were charged with trespassing and various misdemeanors. On October 31, the Tahrir Coalition, a group of student organizations opposing the Gaza genocide at UMich, published an open letter demanding Nessel drop the charges her office brought against the 11 pro-Palestinian protesters in September. The IYSSE supports the open letter and joins in demanding the dropping of all charges against the 11 protesters. The IYSSE has signed the open letter and urges all workers and youth to do so.
"America First" Means Stomping Out Free Speech In The US In Order To Help Israel --There’s a video of Donald Trump going around where he says — while standing in front of an Israeli flag — that in his first week in office he’s going to stomp out “anti-semitic propaganda” on university campuses throughout the United States. As anyone who’s been paying attention knows, this of course means stomping out speech that is critical of Israel and its genocidal atrocities. This clip has sparked controversy on social media, but the funny thing is it’s actually a resurrected older clip from a Trump campaign event back in September. Trump was elected while openly campaigning against free speech, even as his supporters promoted him as a champion of free speech. He campaigned on jailing flag burners as well, for the record. Trump literally standing before an Israeli flag and vowing to kill free speech for the advancement of Israeli information interests makes a lie of everything the so-called “MAGA movement” has ever claimed to stand for and exposes it for the scam it has always been. Trump supporters are already falling all over themselves to justify his warmongering cabinet picks and his vow to crack down on freedom of assembly on college campuses, and he’s not even president yet. These people will put zero pressure on Trump to end wars and fight authoritarianism. They’ll bootlick and make excuses throughout the entire four years, just like they did last time. They’re not anti-establishment populists, they just want to feel like anti-establishment populists. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Trump supporters are George W Bush supporters LARPing as Ron Paul supporters.
Antiviral use in US kids seeking care for flu fell to under 60% last year -The prescribing of antiviral drugs for US children and adolescents receiving treatment for influenza was less than 60% in the 2023-24 respiratory virus season, down from 70% to 86% in 2017-18, with only 31% of high-risk patients receiving the drugs, a new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)–led study finds.The researchers calculated rates of antiviral prescribing or receipt using data from two flu surveillance networks for children and teens receiving flu treatment during the 2017-18 to 2023-24 respiratory virus seasons. The networks were the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (FluSurv-NET) and the New Vaccine Surveillance Network (NVSN). Antiviral treatment was defined as documentation of a prescription for or receipt of baloxavir (Xofluza), oseltamivir (Tamiflu), peramivir (Rapivab), or zanamivir (Relenza).The findings were published yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report."Annually, seasonal influenza virus infections among children and adolescents in the United States are estimated to result in millions of medical visits, tens of thousands of hospitalizations, and hundreds of deaths," the investigators wrote. "Influenza vaccination and early initiation of antiviral treatment can reduce the risk for influenza complications.""Prompt antiviral treatment has also been associated with lower odds of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death among hospitalized children and adolescents with influenza," they added.
RNA-targeting CRISPR reveals that hundreds of noncoding RNAs are essential—not 'junk' -- Genes contain instructions for making proteins, and a central dogma of biology is that this information flows from DNA to RNA to proteins. But only two percent of the human genome actually encodes proteins; the function of the remaining 98% remains largely unknown. One pressing problem in human genetics is to understand what these regions of the genome do—if anything at all. Historically, some have even referred to these regions as "junk." Now, a study in Cell finds that some noncoding RNAs are not, in fact, junk—they are functional and play an important role in our cells, including in cancer and human development. Using CRISPR technology that targets RNA instead of DNA, researchers at New York University and the New York Genome Center searched across the genome and found nearly 800 noncoding RNAs important for the function of diverse human cells from different tissues. "This survey of functional noncoding RNAs advances our understanding of the human genome and demonstrates the potential of CRISPR screens that specifically target RNA—even those that don't code for proteins," said Neville Sanjana, a core faculty member at New York Genome Center and the study's senior author. Most CRISPR applications use an enzyme called Cas9 to edit genes on the DNA level. However, a newer technology uses the enzyme Cas13 to more precisely target RNA without disrupting nearby protein-coding genes and other regulatory elements. Sanjana's lab previously demonstrated how a CRISPR-Cas13 platform targeting RNA instead of DNA can be optimized to screen the whole transcriptome, or the genetic information transcribed into RNA molecules. Many studies have used sequencing technology to read out what RNA is expressed, but it has been challenging to understand whether specific RNA molecules actually are required for cells to function. "We now have this technology, but the biological question still remains: which parts of the noncoding genome are actually functional?" asked Simon Müller, the co-first author of the Cell study and a postdoctoral associate in Sanjana's lab.
New AI tool ferrets out long-COVID cases from patient records, estimates 23% prevalence --Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) researchers who developed a new artificial intelligence (AI) tool that uncovers previously unrecognized signs of long COVID in electronic medical records (EMRs) say it suggests that 23% of the population has the condition at some point.Published last week in Med, the research may reveal the true scope of the pandemic's long-term consequences, offer a personalized approach to care, and diminish the biases that many patients have faced when seeking long-COVID care.The AI tool identifies and tracks long-COVID signs or symptoms (eg, shortness of breath) that can't be explained by alternative diagnoses (eg, asthma) in the EMRs of patients who had COVID-19 at least 2 months before. The researchers developed the algorithm by deriving data from nearly 300,000 patients at 14 MGH hospitals and 20 community health centers. While current estimates suggest a long-COVID prevalence of 7%, the researchers' estimate was much higher, at 22.8%. In addition, the AI tool was roughly 3% more accurate than the relevant diagnostic code and less biased toward certain populations, such as those with better healthcare access."Our AI tool could turn a foggy diagnostic process into something sharp and focused, giving clinicians the power to make sense of a challenging condition," senior author Hossein Estiri, PhD, of MGH's Clinical Augmented Intelligence Group, said in a Mass General Brigham news release. "With this work, we may finally be able to see long COVID for what it truly is—and more importantly, how to treat it."Study limitations included potentially incomplete EMR data, lack of capture of possible exacerbation of a pre-existing condition, and uncertainty about when a patient was first infected owing to declines in COVID-19 testing.
Cardiac inflammation markers show role of long-COVID symptoms -A study in Nature Microbiology suggests trace-level cytokines, a marker of cardiac inflammation, may play a key role in long-COVID cardiac symptoms, including chest pains and shortness of breath.The findings were based on blood samples collected from 50 COVID-19 patients in Australia collected up to 18 months after infections. People reporting long-COVID symptoms had elevated levels of cytokines, which are proteins the body makes to fight inflammation. Lab studies showed these trace-level cytokines had a direct effect on the functionality of cardiomyocytes, the cells of the heart responsible for its pump function. “Lab studies showed these trace-level cytokines had a direct effect on the functionality of cardiomyocytes, the cells of the heart responsible for its pump function,” said study author Kirsty Short, PhD, of the University of Queensland in a press release from that university. Analysis showed participants' cardiovascular-specific long COVID symptoms had a more pronounced upregulation of inflammation-related pathways/terms, including neutrophil degranulation, antimicrobial peptides, and response to bacterium pathways, the authors said. "We’re now curious to know whether our findings could be applied to other symptoms of long COVID such as neurological disease or respiratory disease, as this study actively recruited sufferers with chest pain and/or heart palpitations," said Short, who added that these initial findings need validation in larger studies.
Health care database analysis highlights lingering symptoms long after COVID-19 infection -- A new international study has shed light on the significant burden of post-acute COVID-19 symptoms across North America, Europe and Asia.For an article published in eClinicalMedicine, NDORMS researchers analyzed data from 10 large health care databases in 7 countries, covering more than 932 million individuals, including more than 3 million individuals diagnosed with COVID-19.They found that post-COVID symptoms listed by the World Health Organization (WHO) are commonly experienced by those who have recovered from COVID-19 infection, the most frequently reported symptoms being joint pain, abdominal discomfort, gastrointestinal issues, cough, and anxiety. Some symptoms like muscle spasms and cognitive dysfunction were found to be less common. Co-first author of the study Junqing Xie said, "Incidence rates for specific symptoms varied widely across different health care settings, but compared to the general population, those who had COVID-19 had a 40% higher incidence of developing any post-acute symptom."Notably, we found that the incidence of these symptoms generally increased with age, and women exhibited higher rates of several post-acute symptoms compared to men."Yet, these patterns could differ or even completely reverse for some specific symptoms, which stresses the possible heterogeneous manifestations of post-acute COVID-19 between individuals."The findings underscore the substantial and prolonged burden that many COVID-19 survivors continue to face and highlight the challenges in characterizing and managing the condition in health care settings."This is the first truly international study to systematically evaluate the epidemiology of post-acute COVID-19 symptoms using the WHO's clinical case definition," said Kim López-Güell, co-first author."As COVID-19 continues to affect global health, the findings from this study provide critical insights into the long-term consequences of the virus and the challenges it presents for health care systems worldwide."By addressing these findings through enhanced treatment strategies, resource allocation, and ongoing research, health care providers can better support the millions of individuals navigating life after COVID-19."
Two studies describe economic burden, sex differences of long COVID -- Long COVID can cause substantial economic loss and missed days of work, and it can strike women more often than men—possibly because women have increased expression of an RNA gene implicated in autoimmunity—according to two new studies.In the first long-COVID study, published this week in BMJ Open, British researchers estimate that the chronic condition improved only incrementally, and most patients continued to report lost days of work 6 months after enrolling in specialty long-COVID clinics. Long COVID has been known to significantly diminish quality of life, increase disability, and result in economic loss in workdays lost to illness. In the United Kingdom, researchers looked at outcomes in 35 specialized long-COVID clinics among 4,087 patients diagnosed as having long COVID from August 2020 to August 2022. All patients were enrolled in the rehabilitation program Living With Covid Recovery (LWCR), an app that collects patient symptoms and uses that information to deliver tailored advice. The app also has a dashboard that allows clinicians to review patients' progress and communicate with them, among other features, the authors said. Patients had a mean age of 47.3 years, and 94% and were in the working-age bracket of 18 to 65 years. The participants were 71% female and 89% White.The mean WSAS score at 6 months after registration in the LWCR was 19.1 (95% confidence interval, 18.6 to 19.6), with 46% of the participants reporting a WSAS score above 20 (moderately severe or worse impairment).Fully 72% of patients who reported loss of working days when they first started using the app, and continued to use it, also reported working days lost at 6 months. And 36% of them were unable to work at all.The researchers also determined that the monthly societal cost per patient of long COVID at 6 months was £931 ($1,174 US), mostly driven by the costs tied to lost working days. Men may be more prone to severe symptoms of COIVD-19 in the acute phase, but women are more likely to report long COVID, according to a meta-analysis published in 2022 that reported a pooled estimated odds ratio of 1.57 (57% higher risk) for women developing long COVID than men.Now researchers have used data collected from 45 patients who were recruited at 3 months after infection to study recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection, and they write in a study this week in Science Translational Medicine that SARS-CoV-2 could trigger overactive gene expression in women that leads to persistent symptoms.Of the 36 participants in the study who developed long COVID at 3 months after infection, 55.6% were female, the mean age was 43.0 years, and 8 participants (22.2%) were previously hospitalized for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.At 3 months after infection, 9 participants had fully recovered, and 44.4% were women, the mean age was 41.7 years, and one participant was previously hospitalized for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection.Banked peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples were taken from participants during initial illness, 3 months after infection, and at 12 months after infection. The investigators noted a difference in male and female cell-to-cell communication patterns, with women showing an expression of several genes that encode proteins involved in inflammation.
UK surveillance data show rise in antibiotic-resistant infections -New data from the UK Health Security Agency (HSA) show that the number of serious antibiotic-resistant infections last year in England surpassed pre–COVID-19-pandemic levels.The English Surveillance of Antibiotic Prescribing and Utilisation Report (ESPAUR) shows there were an estimated 66,730 serious antibiotic-resistant infections in England in 2023, compared with 62,314 in 2019. The increase was largely due to an uptick in antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli, which was responsible for an estimated 68% of drug-resistant bacteremia cases. Resistance to multiple classes of antibiotics in cases of E coli bacteremia also increased compared with 2019, and resistance to most classes of antibiotics increased in Klebsiella pneumoniae as well. The rates of reported carbapenemase-producing organisms from all sample types more than doubled from 2021 (4.7 per 100,000) to 2023 (10.1 per 100,000).The ESPAUR data also reveal that people living in the most economically and socially deprived areas of England were 42.6% more likely to have an antibiotic-resistant infections than those living in the least deprived areas. That's up from 29.6% in 2019. Ethnic disparities were found as well, with the highest proportion of resistant infections reported in Asian or Asian-British ethnic groups (39.4%)."Increasingly the first antibiotics that patients receive aren't effective at tackling their infections," HSA Chief Executive Professor Dame Jenny Harries said in a press release. "That's not just an inconvenience—it means they are at greater risk of developing a severe infection and sepsis. Our declining ability to treat and prevent infections is having an increasing impact, particularly on our poorest communities."
Personal care product use during pregnancy, lactation may increase exposure to ‘forever chemicals’: Study -The use of certain personal care products during pregnancy or lactation may be linked to increased levels of “forever chemicals” in both blood plasma and breast milk, a new study has found. While past research has confirmed the presence of these toxic compounds in such items, the study authors sought to determine whether the use of nail polish, makeup and hair dyes alters the concentrations of the compounds in the body during and after pregnancy. Exploring this question in the maternal context was important because prenatal exposure to the chemicals — per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) — has been connected to adverse birth outcomes, according to the researchers, who published their findings in Environment International. Some such effects include reduced birth weight, preterm birth, certain neurodevelopmental disorders and diminished vaccine uptake in children, according to the multi-national research team. Known for their ability to persist in the body and the environment, PFAS are already linked to a variety of serious health conditions, including thyroid disease, kidney cancer and testicular cancer. There are thousands of types of PFAS, many of which are known for their nonstick and water-resistant properties — making them frequent ingredients in cosmetics and numerous household products. To evaluate the personal care product and pregnancy question, the researchers analyzed data from the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals Study, which included 2,001 pregnant people from 10 Canadian cities, between 2008 and 2011. The scientists considered the contributions of personal care products to PFAS concentrations in both prenatal blood plasma, from six to 13 gestational weeks, and human milk, from two to 10 weeks postpartum. They also received reports from participants about the frequency of product use across eight categories during the first and third trimesters, one to two days postpartum and two to 10 weeks postpartum. Participants who wore makeup daily in the first and third trimesters had 14 percent and 17 percent higher PFAS concentrations in their blood and breast milk, respectively, compared to those who did not, according to the study. People who used colored-permanent dye one to two days postpartum had 16 to 18 percent higher levels of PFAS in their milk than those who did not use dyes, the researchers found. Because the study only evaluated four types of PFAS commonly used in industry and commerce, the authors stressed their belief that their results were an underestimation of exposure levels. Despite the alarming nature of their results, the scientists stressed that on the plus side, such scientific evidence can help inform future regulation and guide individual choices.
McDonald's E coli outbreak expands by 14 cases, 7 hospitalizations, and 1 more state - The Escherichia coli O157:H7 outbreak traced to contaminated raw onions on Quarter Pounder hamburgers served at McDonald's has grown by 14 reported cases, 7 hospitalizations, and 1 more state, topping 100 illnesses, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in an update yesterday.Since the CDC launched an investigation on October 22, the Shiga toxin–producing E coli outbreak has sickened 104 people, with 34 hospitalizations, 4 cases of the life-threatening kidney disease called hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), and the death of an 88-year-old man in Colorado. Illness onsets were reported from September 12 to October 21. The tainted slivered yellow onions at restaurants where they were distributed are expired and have been recalled by the supplier, Taylor Farms. McDonald's has since sourced a different supplier for the affected locations. The vegetables had been distributed to only food-service establishments such as restaurants rather than retail outlets. "The likelihood of contaminated onions still being available for sale is low," the update said.Affected states include Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.Symptoms of E coli infection include stomach cramps, diarrhea, fever, and nausea or vomiting. Severe cases can cause bloody diarrhea and HUS and lead to high blood pressure, chronic kidney disease, and neurologic problems.
Study highlights high rate of multidrug-resistant strains of E coli, Klebsiella in 3 countries - A genomic surveillance study identified several multidrug-resistant (MDR), high-risk clones of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae in Kenya, Uganda, and Jordan, researchers reported this week in Emerging Infectious Diseases.Using an antimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance program run by the US Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division, researchers analyzed MDR E coli and K pneumoniae isolates collected from patients with healthcare-associated and community-acquired infections in the three countries from 2012 through 2022. A total of 758 E coli and 378 K pneumoniae isolates were tested for susceptibility to a panel of different classes of antibiotics and subjected to whole-genome sequencing (WGS). Among the E coli isolates, there were 124 sequence types (STs), 20 of which were shared among the three countries. The dominant ST was ST131, which has emerged as a major cause of MDR urinary tract infections worldwide, followed by ST1193, a high-risk clone that recently diverged from ST131. Three potential zoonoticE coli STs (ST10, ST95, and ST117) that are common in food animals and have pathogenic potential were also identified. Among K pneumoniae isolates, there were 123 STs, with ST14, ST147, ST307, and ST258 identified as the most concerning. WGS revealed acquired extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL) genes in 50.8% of E coli isolates and 68.8% of K pneumoniae isolates, while carbapenemase genes were detected in 1% of E coli and 12% of K pneumoniae isolates. Mobile colistin-resistance (MCR) genes were found in 2 E coli isolates (MCR-1.1) and 5 K pneumoniae isolates (MCR-8.1 and MCR-9). "Overall, our study highlights the emergence and threat of genetically diverse high-risk MDR clones of 2 of the most critical groups of MDR bacteria causing severe infections with limited treatment options," the study authors wrote. "The abundance of global high-risk STs bearing resistance genes indicates their effective dissemination, the potential for intraspecies and interspecies transmission of resistance genes, and emergence of new high-risk clones."
Study, report highlight threat of antimicrobial resistance in refugees - Conflict and humanitarian crises are potentially exposing millions of displaced people to the threat of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), according to a new study and a report published today by international humanitarian group Medecins Sans Frontiers (MSF). The study, published last week in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, found that refugees and asylum seekers are nearly three times as likely to be colonized or infected with drug-resistant bacteria as the host-country population. The MSF report examines case studies from nine current humanitarian settings to understands what drives AMR in these settings, and how it might be mitigated. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, an estimated 110 million people worldwide, including 36.4 million refugees and 6.1 million asylum seekers, were forcibly displaced from their homes in 2023. Seventy-five percent were hosted in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), in substandard living conditions where access to clean water and quality healthcare is limited. The most common AMR phenotypes reported were multidrug-resistant gram-negative bacteria (26 studies, prevalence ranging from 4.2% to 60.8%), methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (24 studies, prevalence ranging from 0.92% to 73%), and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase–producing gram-negative bacteria (20 studies, prevalence ranging from 1.6% to 61.1%). Analysis of 10 studies that compared prevalence of AMR carriage or infection among refugees and asylum seekers and the host-country population found refugees or asylum seekers were 2.88 times (95% confidence interval, 2.61 to 3.18) more likely to carry or be infected with a drug-resistant pathogen. The study authors say healthcare providers who are tasked with caring for refugees and asylum seekers need to be aware of these risks. "Increased efforts are required to drive improvements in infection prevention and control, antimicrobial stewardship, and access to quality health care to be better tailored for groups at risk, as well as addressing poor living conditions and transit conditions that could be exposing them to increased risk," they wrote. The MSF report, meanwhile, draws both on published literature, interviews with stakeholders, and the group's own work in nine current humanitarian settings where people are being displaced—Gaza, Afghanistan, Mozambique, north Syria, Ukraine, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Bangladesh—to highlight that factors that contribute to the high prevalence of AMR in refugees and migrants documented in the Lancet study. "These case studies illustrate the critical drivers, challenges and consequences of AMR in a range of contexts where MSF works—conflict-affected regions, areas disproportionately impacted by climate change, countries with underfunded health systems, and displaced populations," the report states. The critical drivers of AMR in these settings include overwhelmed and crowded refugee camps where bacteria and bacterial infections can easily spread; very limited access to quality healthcare, including lack of diagnostics and antibiotics; critical shortages of trained healthcare workers; healthcare facilities with compromised water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) and poor infection prevention and control (IPC) practices; low levels of vaccination; and inadequate stewardship frameworks that can result in inappropriate antibiotic use that promotes resistance. Often, these settings are in unstable countries with underfunded health systems that are already grappling with high rates of AMR. AMR in these settings is also frequently overshadowed by more urgent needs, such as providing food and immediate medical care for wounded people. "The breakdown of these systems accelerates the spread of AMR, making it increasingly difficult to manage in already fragile environments," MSF said, adding that pregnant women, newborns, children under 5, and people with traumatic injuries are among those who are at greatest risk.
US flu activity continues slight rise in children as COVID levels remain low - Though US flu activity continues to increase slightly in children, overall levels remain low nationally, as do COVID markers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today in its respiratory disease updates. Percent positivity for flu has trended upward over the past few weeks but is still low, at 1.6% at clinical labs, where nearly 93% of detections are influenza A. Meanwhile, emergency department visits for flu increased slightly among children and adolescents. No new pediatric flu deaths were reported, keeping the season's total at one. One death was reported for the 2023-24 season, which occurred in a child who died in May, bringing the number for last season to 205. COVID activity continues to decline in most areas, the CDC said in its weekly respiratory virus snapshot. "Across the nation, COVID-19 infections are predicted to decline in some states, and grow slowly from a low level in others," the agency said. Wastewater detections are still at the low level and are highest in the Midwest. WastewaterSCAN, a national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, said yesterday that SARS-CoV-2 detections remain low, with no significant trend up or down over the past 3 weeks. In other respiratory illness tracking, the CDC said respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity is elevated and continues to increase in the East and South and is trending upward in the Central region, especially in young children. Also, infections caused by Mycoplasma pneumoniae ("walking pneumonia") continue to rise in the younger age-groups.For pertussis (whooping cough), the CDC recently reported that illness patterns have returned to pre–COVID-19-pandemic levels. For the week ending November 9, preliminary data show that more than five times as many cases have been reported this year than last year.
Pakistan, Nigeria, Chad report more polio cases -Three countries reported more polio cases this week: Pakistan had three more wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) cases, Nigeria noted seven more circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) cases, and Chad confirmed two cVDPV2 cases, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) said in its latest weekly update.Pakistan is one of two countries where WPV1 is still endemic. The country's latest patients all had paralysis onsets in October. They are from three different provinces, Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The cases, part of a sharp rise in cases this year, boost Pakistan's 2024 total to 48.In Africa, Nigeria’s cVDPV2 patients had paralysis onsets in September and hail from five different states: Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe, Sokoto, and Kogi. The illnesses put the country's total for 2024 at 80. Chad's 2 cases are in Wadi Fira and Chari Baguirmi regions, also with onset of paralysis in September. They bring Chad's total cVDPV2 cases this year to 15.Pakistan's forced repatriation of roughly 730,000 undocumented Afghani residents back to their home country is a factor behind setbacks in polio eradication in Pakistan and Afghanistan, Hamid Jafari, MD, who directs polio eradication activities for the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean regional office, said this week at a virtual meeting hosted by the GPEI, according to Voice of America. He said the virus moved with massive unpredictable population movements across borders and within the countries. Other factors include polio vaccination barriers in militant areas, vaccine hesitancy, and community boycotts. The report said antigovernment militants have violently attacked polio vaccination teams over suspicions of spying.
Mpox plateaus in a DR Congo hot spot, rises in other African nations -Though mpox activity in Africa continues an overall rise, activity in one of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) hot spots—South Kivu province—seems to be plateauing, the World Health Organization (WHO) said in its latest situation report. South Kivu province is one of six in the DRC to report the novel clade 1b virus, which has now spread to 11 other countries. The WHO said clade 1b is spreading to new areas through transmission among young adults from close contact, especially sexual. As clusters expand, transmission patterns change, with more spread among households and communities and rising proportions in young children.In the DRC, mixed transmission patterns are still occurring, and ongoing testing challenges are still making it difficult to understand the evolving epidemiology.Burundi’s clade 1b outbreak is concentrated around the city of Bujumbura, with young adults and children the hardest-hit groups, similar to the pattern in parts of the DRC.Meanwhile, Uganda’s outbreak is rapidly expanding, with 100 new confirmed cases reported over the last week, mostly involving intimate close-contact spread and among sexual networks, the WHO said, adding that Rwanda is also seeing an uptick in the same groups. The WHO said its emergency committee for mpox will meet on November 22 to discuss the latest developments. The group declared a public health emergency of international concern on August 14 due to the surge in mpox activity in African countries, some of it involving the novel clade 1b virus.
US confirms first case of more aggressive mpox strain -- U.S. health officials confirmed on Saturday the first case of a more severe strain of mpox that infected an individual who recently traveled to Africa. California health authorities identified the first known case of clade I mpox in the U.S. through laboratory testing. The person was treated in San Mateo County, according to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH). The individual is at home and recovering. “People who had close contact with this individual are being contacted by public health workers, but there is no concern or evidence that mpox clade I is currently spreading between individuals in California or the United States,” California’s health department said. The case of clade I mpox outbreak started in Central and Eastern Africa. “Historically, clade I has caused more severe illness than clade II, however, recent infections from clade I mpox may not be as clinically severe as in previous outbreaks, especially when cases have access to quality medical care,” CDPH wrote on Saturday. Mpox is a disease that is caused by infection with a virus. In Africa, people have gotten it from small animal bites. Some of its symptoms include body aches, chills and fever. On Nov. 22, the World Health Organization (WHO) will convene to determine if the outbreak of mpox in Africa still constitutes a public health emergency of international concern.The new strain of mpox is different from the other, clade II, that caused an outbreak in 2022 in nonendemic nations. The WHO declared the recent outbreak of mpox in Africa a global health emergency in August.
CDC data show sharp rise in rates of meningococcal disease - Surveillance data released yesterday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show that rates of meningococcal disease have risen sharply in the United States since 2021 and now exceed pre–COVID-19 levels. A total of 438 confirmed and probable cases of meningococcal disease were reported in 2023, the most US cases reported since 2013. The increase has been driven primarily byNeisseria meningitidis serogroup Y, which is disproportionately affecting Black people, adults between the ages of 30 and 60, and those with HIV. Serogroup Y is one of four N meningitidis serogroups (B, C, and W are the others) that cause most meningococcal disease cases in the United States. A recent study published in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports described an outbreak of N meningitidisserogroup Y infections in Virginia from 2022 to 2024 in which 80% of cases were in Black residents and 63.9% in residents aged 30 to 60 years. Meningococcal disease is a rare but severe illness that most often presents as meningitis, with symptoms that may include fever, headache, stiff neck, vomiting, and altered mental status. It can worsen rapidly and become deadly within hours. Even with appropriate antibiotic treatment, the case-fatality rate is 10% to 15%. Prior to 2021, meningococcal disease incidence in the United States had been falling. In March, the CDC issued a health advisory to alert healthcare providers to the increase in cases, advising them to have heightened awareness of meningococcal disease, particularly among disproportionately affected groups, and to be aware that some patients might present without symptoms typical of meningitis. The advisory also urged providers to ensure that everyone who's recommended to receive meningococcal vaccination is up to date. The CDC recommends meningococcal vaccination for all adolescents and for children and adults who are at increased risk for meningococcal disease.
California Dengue Cases Prompt Swift Response From Public Health Officials KFF - Across California, public health and pest control authorities are facing a new reality as the Aedes mosquitoes bring the threat of dengue and potentially other tropical diseases, such as chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever, that were once of concern only to international travelers. So far this year, authorities have identified at least 13 cases of locally acquired dengue, up from two in 2023, with 11 in Los Angeles County and two in the San Diego area. The Aedes mosquitoes spread the disease by biting an infected person and then biting a previously uninfected person.Mosquito-borne viral illnesses, chiefly malaria, have long been a scourge in many tropical regions, and preventive measures focus mainly on controlling the mosquitoes. The Aedes mosquitoes, known for their aggressive, daytime biting, are now present in at least 24 California counties. They breed in water, in as little as a capful.“When these locally acquired cases occur, … we want to act on them pretty quickly so that it does not become an endemic infection in our region,” said Aiman Halai, director of the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health’s Vector-Borne Disease Unit. California officials are hoping to beat back dengue by expanding mosquito surveillance, developing detailed response plans for mosquito outbreaks and human infections, and improving data sharing across agencies. They’re also going door to door in neighborhoods to remove standing water sources and apply pesticides. Residents are advised to wear bug repellent and long-sleeved clothing and control mosquitoes around their homes to prevent biting and infection.Some vector control districts — local agencies charged with managing disease-bearing insects and other animals — are even growing their own sterile mosquitoes to release into the wild to reduce local Aedes populations.Outside of California, locally acquired dengue cases have occurred in Arizona, Florida, Hawaii, and Texas. In March, Puerto Rico declared a public health emergency after a spike in cases there, where dengue is endemic. Meanwhile, worldwide dengue cases are on track to more than double this year, with 12.3 million documented through August, up from 6.5 million in 2023, according to the World Health Organization. Most people who get dengue have no symptoms, but about 1 in 4 become ill. A mild case can feel like the flu and usually dissipates within a week, but about 5% of those infected with dengue become very sick, with symptoms that can include internal bleeding, shock, and organ failure, and the most severe cases can be fatal. People infected a second time are at especially high risk.
CDC video downplays danger of H5N1 bird flu The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a video the day after the presidential election in which CDC epidemiologist Dr. Denisse Vega Ocasio informs her audience about the symptoms of H5N1 avian influenza. The brief statement, no more than a public service announcement, described symptoms identical to those of seasonal influenza and raised no alarm about the public health threat if direct human-to-human transmission of H5N1 should take place. Tweets from health care providers and scientific observers have attacked the video as a deliberate effort to mislead the public and downplay the dangers. Sara Ann Willette, a frequent commentator on CDC policies, noted: “This PSA is because either H5 is already spreading _or_ the CDC expects it will.” The video starkly illustrates the degree to which public health authorities have abdicated their responsibility to prevent the spread of H5N1 and eliminate the threat of its emergence as the next pandemic. M. Elisabeth, a pediatric intensive care unit and emergency department nurse at Boston Children’s and who has been active in reporting on the COVID pandemic, posted on X/Twitter: “I think it’s legitimate to ask the @CDCFlu @CDCDirector why this was posted without any context and to ask whether there has been human to human transmission. The general public shouldn’t need to get this message if transmission has been restricted to farm workers.” Surely they would not have released such a video if they believed the likelihood of additional human H5N1 cases was low. The implication is clearly that they have resigned themselves to the inevitability of human H5N1 transmission, a situation made much more likely by their lack of action. The timing of the video, coming the day after the re-election of Donald Trump to the presidency, is also quite telling. Trump has fomented the most depraved anti-science COVID conspiracy theories and promised that the anti-vaccination fraudster Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will have a major “health related” role in his administration.
Hawaii reports first H5 avian flu detection in wastewater - The Hawaii Department of Health yesterday said it is investigating possible sources of H5 avian influenza virus that turned up for the first time in wastewater sampling. In a statement, the department said the positive finding occurred in samples collected at a site in Oahu on November 7. Hawaii is the only US state that hasn't reported H5N1 avian flu in birds or animals. The state hasn't reported any recent detections in animals or people. Wastewater sampling can't determine if the virus is highly pathogenic or if the source was from an animal or a person. Health officials said H5 monitoring serves as a signal to allow health officials to explore if the detection is related to H5N1 and to bolster protective measures, especially in people who are at increased risk of exposure.The health department said the risk to Hawaii residents remains low, but it encouraged people to take safety steps such as avoiding wild birds, animals, or livestock that are sick or dead, reporting sick pets or unusual animal deaths to veterinarians, and avoiding raw milk.
Canadian teen with suspected avian flu in critical condition -A British Columbia (BC) teen from the Fraser Health region who was hospitalized with an earlier announced presumptive positive H5 avian flu infection is in critical condition, the province's top health official said today.In a media briefing streamed live on Canada's Global News, Bonnie Henry, MD, BC's health officer, shared the latest investigation findings, noting that the patient's symptoms began on November 2, and he or she was seen that day at a hospital emergency room. She said initial symptoms included conjunctivitis, fever, and cough. After symptoms worsened, the patient was hospitalized at BC Children's Hospital on the evening of November 8. Henry said the patient, who doesn't have underlying health conditions, is experiencing acute respiratory distress and has received intravenous antiviral treatment. She added that the patient was tested for flu and other respiratory viruses as part of routine illness surveillance.Though people infected with H5 avian flu in the United States over the past several months have had mild symptoms, Henry said health officials worry that the disease might be more severe in younger people. She noted that early scientific findings suggest that adults who have been exposed to earlier H1N1 seasonal flu viruses might have some partial protection against the current H5 strain.Henry said the investigation involves painstaking and challenging work, and she praised the patient's family for their help at a time when they are grappling with a critical illness in a loved one. She cautioned, however, that there's a chance that investigators will not be able to determine how the teen contracted the virus.So far, no other infections have been reported in the patient's contacts. Henry said about 36 people have been tested and that the patient had not been in school during the infectious period. Contacts have been offered oseltamivir (Tamiflu) for prophylactic (preventive) use.Investigators are still working to determine how the patient was exposed to the virus, she said, reiterating that animal exposure is likely, though an environmental source is also possible. Though about 25 avian flu outbreaks have recently been reported in British Columbia poultry, the patient doesn’t have any connections to an affected farm or to poultry. He or she was exposed to family pets and pets in other homes, which included dogs, cats, and reptiles, Henry said. One dog was sick, but tests were negative, she said, adding that investigations into potential animal sources are still under way.Confirmation testing is still under way at the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg. Henry said scientists will be working to further characterize the virus, including determining the neuraminidase (the "N" portion of the virus name), the clade, and the genotype. Henry also added that wastewater monitoring in BC has been undertaken, though the method can't determine if the source is from an animal or a human.
Canada's national lab confirms H5N1 in hospitalized teen - The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) today announced that the National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg has confirmed that the H5 avian flu detected in a British Columbia (BC) teen is the H5N1 virus. Yesterday BC health officials said the previously healthy teen is hospitalized in critical condition. Today's confirmation marks Canada's first locally acquired H5N1 infection.Genetic sequencing suggests that the H5N1 virus is closely related to those circulating in BC poultry, meaning that it belongs to the 2.3.4.4b clade and to the D.1.1 genotype. Western Canada and a handful of western US states have seen an uptick in poultry outbreaks related to spread of the virus from birds migrating south along the Pacific flyway. The genotype is different from the B3.13 virus that has infected US dairy cattle.So far, no other human infections have been detected in Canada, and investigations are still under way to determine how the teen was exposed to the virus.Theresa Tam, MBBS, Canada's chief public health officer, said, health officials' thoughts are with the patient, the family, and hospital caregivers. "This detection was picked up via hospital-based influenza surveillance, confirming that human influenza surveillance in British Columbia and Canada is effective at detecting avian influenza A(H5). We must continue to remain vigilant in our efforts to prevent the spread of avian influenza between animals and to humans."
Oregon reports first H5 case in farm worker, California reports 5 more The Oregon Health Authority today reported the state’s first human H5 avian flu case, and California Department of Public Health (CDPH) today reported 5 infections in farm workers, lifting its total to 26 since early October.The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) hasconfirmed all of the cases and now puts the national total since the first of the year at 52. In a statement, the OHA said patient’s illness is linked to anearlier outbreak at a commercial poultry farm in Clackamas County, an event confirmed on October 24 that involved a facility that had 150,000 birds.County health officials had been closely monitoring people connected to the outbreak, which led to the illness detection. The patient had mild symptoms and has fully recovered. The OHA added that the patient and household contacts received antiviral treatment. No other person-to-person spread has been reported. Two of California's latest cases appear to include two reported yesterday from Madera County, which is part of the state’s Central Valley—the epicenter of the dairy farm outbreaks. In a statement, Madera County officials said the cases—one confirmed and one presumptive positive—involved people who had contact with sick dairy cows. Officials said the patients have mild symptoms, are receiving antiviral treatment, and are isolating at home. They also noted that there is no link between the two cases, suggesting that only animal-to-human spread is occurring in the state.The new cases reported by the CDPH probably include a new illness today reported by Fresno County, its first. In a statement, the Fresno County Department of Public Health said the resident had contact with infected dairy cattle at a farm. The patient has mild symptoms and is receiving antiviral treatment at home.In animal developments, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed 3 more H5N1 outbreaks in California dairy cattle, raising the state's total 291 and the national total to 508 in 15 states. Also, APHIS confirmed three more outbreaks on commercial poultry farms in California, involving a broiler facility and a turkey producer in Fresno County and a turkey farm in Merced County.
H9N2 avian flu infects 7 more in China --- China has reported seven more H9N2 avian flu infections in humans, mostly involving children and all in people whose symptoms began in September and October, Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said today in its weekly avian flu update.Four of the patients are from Hunan province, including a 10-month-old boy, a 1-year-old girl, and two boys ages 3 and 5 years old. One person is a 6-year-old boy from Hubei province, and another is a 7-year-old boy from Jiangxi province.The only adult patient is a 67-year-old woman from Sichuan province.Exposure sources weren't noted in the report. H9N2 is known to circulate in poultry, especially in Asia, where sporadic infections are reported, mainly in children and mostly mild after exposure to poultry. No sustained transmission has been reported.China reported its last H9N2 case in September and has now reported 13 cases this year.
Avian flu confirmed in more US poultry, cattle; more than 500 herds now affected The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) confirmed more H5 avian influenza outbreaks in dairy cows and poultry.Of 13 more confirmations in dairy cows, all were in California, lifting the state's total to 291 and putting the national total at 505 from 15 states. Also, APHIS reported two more confirmations in poultry flocks, one involving backyard birds in Tulare County, which is part of the hard-hit Central Valley region that has been California's H5N1 epicenter for dairy cattle outbreaks. The other involves a backyard flock of 20 birds in Malheur County, Oregon.The Oregon Department of Agriculture said the flock had chickens and ducks, that the avian flu detection is the first in Malheur County, and that the birds were humanely euthanized.
Elephant seal numbers drop after avian flu outbreak: First report of transmission between marine mammals The sounds of barking elephant seals are again in the air along the breeding grounds of Península Valdés, Argentina—but it's quieter. Almost exactly a year after a massive outbreak of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza killed more than 17,000 elephant seals, including about 97% of their pups, scientists estimate that only about a third of the elephant seals normally expected here returned. "It's beautiful to walk the beaches now and hear elephant seals again," said Marcela Uhart, director of the Latin America Program at the UC Davis Karen C. Drayer Wildlife Health Center within the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine. "At the same time, we're walking among piles of carcasses and bones, and seeing very few elephant seal harems, so it's still disturbing." A study, published in the journal Nature Communications and co-led by UC Davis and the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) in Argentina provides evidence of mammal-to-mammal transmission during the 2023 outbreak. It found that H5N1 spread efficiently among marine mammals. The outbreak in elephant seals was a stepping stone amid the first transnational spread of the virus in these species, extending across five countries in southern South America. The study's genomic analysis further found that, upon entering South America, the virus evolved into separate avian and marine mammal clades, which is unprecedented. "We're showing the evolution of H5N1 viruses that belong to genotype B3.2 over time since their introduction in South America in late 2022," said virologist and co-leading author Agustina Rimondi of INTA and currently also with Robert Koch Institute. "This virus is capable of adapting to marine mammal species, as we can see from the mutations that are consistently found in the viruses belonging to this clade. Very importantly, our study also shows that H5 marine mammal viruses are able to jump back to birds, highlighting the need for increased surveillance and research cooperation in the region." Elephant seal carcasses line the beach at Punta Delgada in Argentina on Oct. 10, 2023 following an outbreak of HPAI avian influenza that killed about 97% of all pups born that year. Credit: Ralph Vanstreels, UC Davis Elephant seal census The Wildlife Conservation Society in Argentina (WCS Argentina) estimated the population of returning elephant seals as part of a decades-long monitoring project. "We were totally appalled by the dramatic impact of the epidemic of avian influenza on this population," said co-author Valeria Falabella, WCS Argentina director of coastal and marine conservation. "It is likely that more than half of the reproductive population died due to the virus. It will take decades before the numbers are back to the 2022 population size." Falabella said the epidemic reversed decades of conservation efforts for the species, adding that most of the adult males and many of the most experienced and fertile females have not returned.
Studies describe deadly avian flu outbreaks among seals, terns -- Two recent studies describe deadly avian flu outbreaks among Argentina’s elephant seal population and terns found on islands off of Washington state, with both studies suggesting animal populations are significantly smaller in the wake of the infections.In the first study on elephant seals, published today in Nature Communications, researchers from UC Davis and the National Institute of Agricultural Technology (INTA) in Argentina tracked the seal colony population one year after a deadly outbreak killed more than 17,000 elephant seals, including about 97% of pups.The 2023 outbreak showed H5N1 spread efficiently among marine mammals and resulted in the introduction of the virus in marine mammals in five countries in southern South America. Once introduced to elephant seals, the virus evolved into separate avian and marine mammal clades."This virus is capable of adapting to marine mammal species, as we can see from the mutations that are consistently found in the viruses belonging to this clade," said co-leading author Agustina Rimondi, PhD, of INTA in a press release. "Very importantly, our study also shows that H5 marine mammal viruses are able to jump back to birds, highlighting the need for increased surveillance and research cooperation in the region."Mass mortality events among seals are rare, the authors said. The authors posit the pups were mostly infected via seal-to-seal transmission, likely enhanced by multiple introductions from sea lions.The authors said with more than half of the reproductive population of elephant seals killed in the 2023 outbreak, it will take decades until the population rises to 2022 levels. Moreover, if seals become a reservoir for H5N1viruses, the mammals could infect wild birds, and coastal bird species could be repeatedly affected by spillover infections."Amidst growing evidence that mammal-to-mammal transmission played a role in H5N1 HPAI outbreaks in dairy cows in North America and in fur farms in Europe, the outbreak among elephant seals in Peninsula Valdes represents another case where mammal-to-mammal transmission was potentially involved in the spread of H5N1 HPAI infections," the authors concluded. In 2023, Rat Island, Washington, saw 56% of a large breeding colony of Caspian terns die from highly pathogenic avian influenza. In Frontiers in Veterinary Science, authors from the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) as well as Washington State University described the outbreak and said no birds have successfully bred on the island since last year.During the outbreak, a total of 1,101 adults and 520 chicks were killed by the virus. Alongside the birds, 15 dead harbor seals were found in the area, which usually only has 1 or 2 seal fatalities.“This Caspian tern event was the first big marine environment avian flu outbreak for Washington. It caused a significant, punctuated mortality for the Caspian terns, which were already a species in decline throughout this flyway,” said lead author Katherine Haman, DVM, in a press release from Washington State University.
Arkansas, Montana report CWD infections in deer, elk - Two deer in two Arkansas counties and an elk in southeastern Montana have tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD), officials announced late last week.According to THV 11, the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission (AGFC) reported one case each in Conway and Stone counties, in the southeast part of the state, the first case for Conway. The cases were identified during the state's alternative firearms hunting season, which closed on October 27.A hunter harvested the Conway County deer in the Ed Gordon Point Remove Wildlife Management area. The AGFC was monitoring Conway County because it is near Pope and Van Buren counties, both of which have had CWD cases.The Stone County deer was taken from private land next to the Sylamore Wildlife Management Area. The county was already part of the state's CWD Management Zone because of its proximity to CWD-positive Searcy, Van Buren, and Independence counties.Arkansas first detected CWD in 2016 and has since tested more than 61,000 deer and elk, identifying 1,769 deer and 56 elk with the fatal prion disease.Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (FWP) announced that a bull elk shot on private land in Hunting District 704, north of Custer National Forest, tested positive for CWD in October, per the Daily Montanan. FWP told the news site that the elk was reported in mid-October as being thin, lethargic, and unafraid of people riding horses and driving vehicles nearby. After it began displaying neurologic signs and could no longer pick up its head, the agency euthanized and sampled it.The state's fifth case in elk since 2017, the diagnosis was the second in a month, after another infected elkwas reported on November 1 in Hunting District 322 in the Ruby Mountains, in the southwest part of the state. It was that area's first detection in elk. The agency said CWD is likely only now being found in elk because their larger size dissuades hunters from removing the whole animal from the field for testing.
Report: Pathogens clinging to microplastics can weather water treatment, pose health risk - Foodborne and opportunistic pathogens can survive wastewater treatment when they hitch a ride on microplastics in the water and quickly form a supportive and protective microbial biofilm, posing a potential threat to human and environmental health when the treated water is reused for things like drinking and crop irrigation, suggest researchers from the Norwegian University of Life Sciences. The investigators identified foodborne pathogens that had formed plastispheres (colonies of pathogens in a sticky microbial biofilm) in three common types of plastic (polypropylene, polyvinyl chloride, and high-density polyethylene propylene) in raw and treated wastewater at a single plant in Norway in August and September 2021. The plastispheres were allowed to grow for 14 and 30 days in raw and treated wastewater, respectively. The team cultured the pathogens under aerobic or anaerobic conditions and genetically analyzed the pathogens, the results of which were published last week in PLOS One. Microplastics, or plastic fragments and particles less than 5 millimeters (0.20 inch) in size, have proliferated in the environment as plastic manufacturing has increased and are recognized as significant food contaminants. "Municipal WWTPs [wastewater treatment plants] are recipients of plastic particles of different sizes originating from household activities such as washing synthetic clothes, personal care, and rinsing cosmetic products directly down household drains," the study authors wrote. "In addition, tire wear particles represent a major source of microplastics entering the environment and are often transported into WWTPs through storms and meltwater." On reverse-transcription qualitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), microplastics yielded evidence of harmful bacteria and viruses such as Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli, norovirus, and adenovirus. The pathogens' abundance was less than 1%, but they were detectable for 14 and 30 days in raw or treated wastewater.Cultures grew Klebsiella pneumoniae and Acinetobacter species from raw and treated wastewater, indicating that the plastisphere biofilms likely help them withstand wastewater treatment.The taxonomic diversity and composition of the plastispheres were significantly influenced by the environment and the length of time the plastic was in the wastewater. The type of plastic material didn't affect the bacterial composition but did influence the bacterial diversity."These findings underscore the potential of plastispheres to harbor and disseminate pathogenic species, posing challenges to water reuse initiatives," the researchers wrote. "Without efficient wastewater treatment and proper plastic waste management, wastewater could act as a source of transferring plastic-associated pathogens into the food chain and possibly pose a threat to human health."
US EPA Enables Polluting Plastics Plants by Failing to Update Wastewater Limits, Report Says -- Federal regulators have enabled US plastics plants across the country to dump dangerous chemicals into waterways by failing to update wastewater limits for over 30 years, according to a new analysis by a watchdog group.While the Clean Water Act requires the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review wastewater discharge limits every five years to keep up with advances in water treatment technologies, the agency has not updated its guidelines for the plastics sector since 1993.“Most folks don’t know that the plastics industry is not required to use modern wastewater treatment controls to limit the amount of pollution they pour into our waterways,” Jen Duggan, the executive director of EIP, said in a press call Thursday. “It’s long past time these plants clean up.”In its analysis, the Environmental Integrity Project (EIP) focused on 70 plants that make raw plastics called “nurdles,” tiny pellets later used to make products such as water bottles, food containers and toyOver 80% of the plants violated pollution limits in their permits at least once between 2021 and 2023, according to the report, yet the EPA only issued financial penalties to 14% of violators, the report found. The Chemours Washington Works plant in West Virginia received 115 violations over this period – more than any other plant studied – but was not issued any penalties by regulators, the EIP analysis found.Additionally, 40% of the plastics plants are operating on outdated water pollution control permits, the study found.The EPA said it is reviewing the report and would “respond appropriately.”The report comes as nations prepare for further negotiations this month in Busan, Korea over a global treaty designed to curb plastic pollution. While the plastics treaty is “incredibly important,” said Duggan, it wouldn’t directly address discharges of harmful pollutants from plastics plants “anytime soon, if at all,” while implementing the existing Clean Water Act would dramatically reduce discharges, she said.Most of the plants EIP analyzed lacked any limits in their permits for a number of concerning pollutants. None of the plants had limits on total nitrogen and only one had a limit on phosphorus— nutrients that can lead to toxic algae blooms and “dead zones” that damage waterways.In 2023, the 70 plants released nearly 10 million pounds of nitrogen and almost 2 million pounds of phosphorus into rivers, lakes and streams across the country, according to the analysis.The report noted that the EPA has not set any federal wastewater limits for 1,4-dioxane, a chemical classified by the EPA as a likely carcinogen that is produced when plants make plastic for water bottles, and dioxins, which the report calls “one of the most toxic chemicals known to science.” While a few plants’ permits included limits on these chemicals that were set by states, most did not.Eight plastics plants reported releasing over 74,000 pounds of 1,4-dioxane into waterways in 2022 while 10 PVC plants reported releasing 1,374 grams of dioxins and similar compound the same year, according to the report.“All of this data was provided to us by the industry itself,” James Hiatt, executive director of the nonprofit For a Better Bayou, said at the press conference. “The reality is, the numbers that we have are probably lower than the actuality.”Petrochemical plants are also potential sources of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), so-called “forever chemicals” linked to certain cancer, hormone disruption and other health problems that are found in rivers and streams across the US. However, there is little data on PFAS released by these plants due to a lack of EPA limits or monitoring requirements, notes the report.In April 2023, EIP and other environmental groups filed a lawsuit in the US Court of Appeals in the Ninth Circuit against the EPA over the agency’s outdated limits on toxic chemicals in wastewater from plastics plants, as well as oil refineries, fertilizer factories and other industrial facilities. On December 5, the groups will present their oral arguments for the case, said an attorney for EIP. Despite the shifting political tide following Donald Trump’s recent presidential win, Duggan said she expects the court will uphold standards set by the Clean Water Act.“No matter what Trump’s plans are, Trump cannot unilaterally wave away these kinds of mandatory, statutory requirements,” she said.
Australia: New guidelines for toxic “forever chemicals” in drinking water allow levels 50 times higher than US -- New voluntary guidelines for maximum levels of per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in Australian drinking water will still allow far more of the toxic chemicals than regulations introduced in the US earlier this year. The new guidelines were proposed in a statement last month by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC). The statement attempted to allay community concerns, in the wake of revelations made by Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) reporters earlier this year about high concentrations of PFAS in drinking water in the Blue Mountains, across New South Wales (NSW) and elsewhere around the country. The SMH investigations also exposed the lack of systematic testing of the domestic water supply. The NHMRC called for the allowable level of PFAS in drinking water to be reduced from 560 to 200 parts per trillion for PFOA and 70 to 4 parts per trillion for PFOS. By contrast, last April, the Environmental Protection Agency in the US introduced mandatory regulations for a reduction of both chemicals to 4 parts per trillion in the next five years, with a longer term non-mandatory goal of zero PFAS. This was based on a scientific consensus that there is no safe level of PFAS in drinking water. Thus, the new Australian guidelines for PFOA would still be 50 times higher than the US rules announced in April, for a chemical the World Health Organisation’s International Agency for Research on Cancer concluded last December is carcinogenic to humans. In addition, the NHMRC proposed guideline values of 30 nanograms per litre for PFHxS and 1,000 ng/L for PFBS, based on thyroid effects. PFAS are a group of around 10,000 chemicals, including PFOA, PFOS, PFHxS and PFBS, employed for their particular properties of repelling fluids. They have been used in sunscreen, non-stick frypans, grease-proof paper, firefighting foam, raincoats, umbrellas, carpet, shampoos, dental floss, eye makeup and a range of industrial applications. Recent studies have calculated that 98 percent of people carry PFAS in their bodies to varying degrees, depending on their level of exposure through household items and their proximity to PFAS-polluted environments. PFAS have been detected in soil, the air and even in rain. Tests on aquatic animals, including fish, have also shown the widespread presence of PFAS, which presents another avenue of ingestion via the food chain. They are called “forever chemicals” because they don’t break down in the environment or the human body. The accumulation of these chemicals in the body can lead to thyroid, kidney, liver and reproductive dysfunction, low birth weight and cancer. A recent study, published in Science Direct, on the effect of perfluorobutane sulfonate (PFBS)—introduced as a supposedly safer replacement for PFOS—in nematodes illustrated that the chemical shortened their lifespan through mitophagy dysfunction. Mitophagy promotes longevity by identifying, removing, and recycling damaged or depolarised mitochondria within cells preventing them from producing inflammatory responses. The study drew a link between reduced mitophagy, which can be exacerbated by exposure to chemicals including PFAS, and early-onset Parkinson’s, Alzheimer’s and Huntington’s disease. Despite an increasing raft of science pointing to PFAS’s detrimental effect on the human body, the chemicals are still being commercially manufactured and used in everyday items around the world. It is likely that a ban on the production and use of PFAS would prevent many thousands of widely sold products from being manufactured, significantly impacting the profits of the major corporations that use these dangerous chemicals.
In a record-breaking drought, bush birds from around Perth flocked to the city –-- Perth is no stranger to hot and dry summers, but the period from October 2023 to April 2024 was exceptional. The city's rainfall for these seven months was only 23 millimeters, the lowest since records began in the 1870s. It was also one of the warmest summers on record, with temperatures 1.7°C higher than the long-term average. The "canary in the coalmine" is a metaphor for an early warning that something is wrong. In this case, though, it wasn't the birds that first alerted us. Rather, we saw the drought's impacts on our iconic and unique vegetation.Jarrah, marri, karri and banksia trees, some as old as 100 years, began to die. The die-offs created a mosaic of brown patches across 1,000 kilometers of south-west Australia's otherwise green forest.The region's ecosystems are diverse and complex. As the drought took hold, there were more subtle changes beyond the visible tree deaths. Perth has a community of avid birdwatchers who began noticing bird species rarely seen in the city, or known to be infrequent visitors.We analyzed bird observation data from the global citizen science platform, eBird, to determine which species had increased in the Perth metropolitan area at this time. We found a dramatic spike in reporting rates for four species—the black-shouldered kite, black-tailed nativehen, tawny-crowned honeyeater and western spinebill. Some species were reported up to nine times more than usual.These shifts hint at how extreme weather can push wildlife into new and unexpected spaces.The black-shouldered kite, a nomadic bird of prey, is often found in heath and woodlands in south-western Australia, as well as in rural landscapes. The black-tailed nativehen is more commonly associated with inland wetlands but is known to appear suddenly in large numbers in new habitats and then disappear just as quickly. Honeyeaters, such as the tawny-crowned honeyeater and the western spinebill, tend to favor coastal heathlands and forests. So why were they turning up in Perth city?We suggest it's likely because the drought stripped their usual habitats of vital resources, particularly food and water.The city, on the other hand, although also hot and dry at this time, had water in remnant wetlands, the Swan River, artificial lakes and ponds, and people's gardens. These areas may also have nectar-rich plants for the honeyeaters, insect populations perhaps eaten by the black-tailed nativehen, and rodents or rabbits for the black-shouldered-kite. We think these urban environments became temporary refuges, providing a different water and food source for these birds. The short-term movement of species such as the black-shouldered kite, western spinebill and tawny-crowned honeyeater into cities represents a new chapter in this urban immigration story. Perhaps we should expect more drought migrants as the climate crisis continues to impact their natural habitats.
Artificial light found to disrupt the circadian cycle of honey bees -- In an emerging red flag for the digital era, sleep experts have warned us to avoid screen time in bed, sounding the alarm that light emitted from phones and other electronic devices can disrupt our sleep patterns. That's one way that science is waking up to the broad range of health and disease implications related to circadian biology and our daily sleep-wake cycles. Now, researchers at the University of California San Diego have found that light disruption is not only a health concern for humans. A new study led by Ph.D. candidate Ashley Kim and Professor James Nieh in the School of Biological Sciences has found that artificial light disrupts the circadian rhythms of honey bees and poses a threat to their essential role as pollinators. "Our research shows just how sensitive honey bees are to changes in their environment, particularly to something as seemingly benign as artificial light," said Kim of the study, published in Scientific Reports. "By disrupting their circadian rhythms, we see clear evidence of reduced sleep periods. This raises significant concerns, not only for bee health but also for the health of ecosystems that depend on them for pollination. Without pollination, crops worth tens of millions of dollars would be at risk.Honey bees generally prefer to nest in dark environments, although a small amount of light can enter from the hive entrance. Sleeping bees typically remain immobile but exhibit subtle movements if disturbed by nestmates. However, bees sleep outside when they swarm or when they form "bee beards" outside the nest on hot evenings, which are increasing under climate change.While the prevalence of artificial light at night (ALAN), or light pollution, on sleeping honey bees varies from region to region, modern urban environments are increasingly exposed to artificial light conditions, especially as temperatures rise. Because there has been a resurgence of urban beekeeping in many areas to support bees and their critical pollination services, bees that experience hotter weather are now potentially more exposed to ALAN. Like us, when bees experience a poor night's sleep and disrupted circadian patterns, problems in behavior and function emerge. Sleep is crucial for the health and fitness of honey bee colonies since they depend on an intricate system of communication known as the "waggle dance" that informs hive mates about the location of food sources in the environment. Bees dance more poorly and therefore do not communicate as well if they do not get enough sleep.
Powerful dust storm in California causes 20-car pileup in Madera County – (video) A powerful dust storm swept through California’s Madera County on Monday afternoon, November 11, 2024, leading to a 20-car pileup due to reduced visibility on the State Route 152. Several people sustained minor injuries and were taken to the hospital. “It was terrifying, it was just terrifying. We got hit, we thought we were okay, then we got hit again, and again. We just thought it wasn’t going to end. I really thought we were going to die. I’m really thankful we’re okay,” said Delissa Fulce, one of the drivers stranded on the highway. The storm reportedly downed several fences and trees as it swept through the region.
Edisto River crest breaks 1928 record, causing dam failures and damaging roads and bridges in Orangeburg, South Carolina – (3 videos) A plume of moisture from Hurricane “Rafael” moved northward into the Southeastern United States and collided with a stationary front over South Carolina, causing intense rainfall in Orangeburg County on November 6 and 7, 2024. The extreme rainfall, totaling 180 – 380 mm (7 – 15 inches) in 24 hours, overwhelmed local ponds and dams, leading to failures that sent water downstream, damaging bridges and roads near Norway, South Carolina. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Columbia, between 180 – 250 mm (7 – 10 inches) of rain fell in the Orangeburg area on October 6 and 7, with some localized areas receiving up to 380 mm (15 inches). “Earlier tonight, the North Fork of the Edisto River crested at a record level of 4.67 m (15.34 feet). This led to significant flooding in and around the city of Orangeburg. River levels will begin to fall, although the river will likely remain above flood stage through the weekend,” meteorologists at the NWS office in Columbia reported at 02:21 LT on November 8. The resulting flood prompted Governor Henry McMaster to declare a state of emergency. Authorities used boats to rescue stranded people, assisted several trapped in buildings in downtown Orangeburg, and rescued at least one person from a nearly submerged vehicle in Norway. The South Carolina Department of Transportation closed 35 roads in Orangeburg and Calhoun Counties on November 7 due to flooding and flood-related damage. Drivers were advised to avoid traveling through affected areas, especially after dark, and to refrain fro driving through flooded roadways or around barricades. The city’s public utilities department reported power and water outages linked to the flooding, and the city opened its public gym as an emergency shelter. Orangeburg County Schools were closed on November 7 and 8 due to road closures. “The flood water is finally starting to recede in Orangeburg after reaching a record flood level late Thursday at 4.67 m (15.34 feet). Over 0.3 m (1 foot) of rain and several small dam failures within the North Fork Edisto Basin pushed the river above both the 1928 record and the 2015 flooding level,” NWS said. At 08:00 LT on November 9, the NWS reported ongoing flooding along the Edisto River, with flood conditions anticipated to continue through Monday. While the river is receding at Orangeburg, flooding is expected to persist, and downstream at Branchville, the river levels are still rising. The NWS advised exercising caution around the Edisto River.
Tropical Storm Sara forms in the Caribbean and heads toward ‘life-threatening’ impact with Central America | CNN — Tropical Storm Sara is here and closing in on Central America where it will unleash disastrous flooding rain in the region. It’s the first and potentially most serious threat posed by a storm that should enter the Gulf of Mexico next week. Sara, which formed Thursday afternoon as it closed in on the Honduras-Nicaragua border, is the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. It’s a season that’s lived up to initial hyperactive forecasts and hasn’t played by the rules. Tropical activity should be winding down in November, but Sara is now the third named storm this month thanks to exceptionally warm water wrought by climate change. The forecast beyond early next week is still highly uncertain, but the forecast is trending toward the US avoiding the worst Sara has to offer. The National Hurricane Center is still urging those in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba, to closely monitor forecasts for changes. Sara has 40 mph maximum sustained winds and will strengthen slightly as it moves toward Honduras Thursday. It will slow down considerably and skim along the coast Friday and through the weekend. The storm may get so close to Honduras that it makes a few brief landfalls this weekend but will still be able to tap into the warm water of the western Caribbean Sea to sustain itself. Tropical storm alerts have been issued for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The storm’s rain began Thursday in both countries and strong winds will arrive as soon as the evening and ramp up Friday. The storm will bring “life-threatening” flooding rainfall up to 30 inches to Honduras and double-digit rainfall totals to other parts of Central America, the NHC warned. That could mean “widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides.” It will then threaten Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula with storm surge and gusty winds by early next week, so residents should prepare.
Tropical Storm “Sara” triggers life-threatening floods in Honduras - (video) Tropical Storm “Sara” made landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras-Nicaragua border on Thursday, November 14, 2024, causing severe flooding and displacement across northern Honduras. Over 20 500 people have been affected, 570 evacuated, and three remain missing. Torrential rainfall, measuring up to 762 mm (30 inches), has triggered life-threatening flash floods and landslides. Forecasts warn of worsening conditions as the storm moves westward toward Belize.
- Tropical Storm “Sara” passed along northern Honduras’ Caribbean coast on Friday, November 15 after making landfall near Cabo Gracias a Dios late Thursday, November 14.
- Sara has already brought heavy rainfall to northern Honduras, with totals reaching up to 437 mm (17.2 inches) at Goloson International Airport. Forecasts predict rainfall of up to 889 mm (35 inches) in isolated areas.
- An estimated 20 500 people have been affected by the storm, with 212 housed in shelters across Atlántida and Colón.
- As of 15:00 UTC on Friday, the storm was located 48 km (30 miles) south-southwest of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and 282 km (175 miles) east-southeast of Belize City.
The system hit land roughly 169 km (105 miles) north of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Honduras-Nicaragua border. By dawn on Friday, the center of the system was located roughly 330 km (205 miles) east-southeast of Belize City and was moving west at 16 km/h (10 mph), with maximum sustained winds of 72 km/h (45 mph). The system brought heavy rains to the region, with forecasts of up to 762 mm (30 inches) of rain in some parts of northern Honduras. The heavy rains have already caused severe floods, with reports suggesting that Goloson International Airport has recorded more than 437 mm (17.2 inches) of rainfall. These rains pose a threat of life-threatening flash floods and landslides. According to officials, roughly 20 500 people have been affected by the storm. At least 570 people have been evacuated, and three remain missing. The storm has cut off at least 37 communities, while some 212 people have been placed in three shelters across the departments of Atlántida and Colón. As of 15:00 UTC, the system was located roughly 48 km (30 miles) south-southwest of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and 282 km (175 miles) east-southeast of Belize City, with a minimum central pressure of 997 hPa. The system was moving westward at 8 km/h (5 mph), with maximum sustained winds of roughly 80 km/h (50 mph). The storm is expected to continue moving westward, with a west-northwestward motion forecast to start on Saturday, November 16. The center of Sara will continue to move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday before approaching Belize and ultimately moving onshore in Belize during the day on Sunday, November 17. tropical storm sara nhc forecast track november 15 2024 Tropical Storm “Sara” NHC forecast track. Credit: NWS/NHC The government of Belize has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), heavy rains of up to 380 – 635 mm (15 – 25 inches) are forecast over northern Honduras, with isolated totals of up to 889 mm (35 inches). The Sierra La Esperanza will be especially vulnerable to life-threatening floods and mudslides. Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican state of Quintana Roo could expect 127 – 254 mm (5 – 10 inches) of rain, with localized totals around 381 mm (15 inches) through early next week, increasing the risk of floods and mudslides in these regions.
Second DANA storm impacting eastern Spain after historic October flooding - The Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) issued a severe weather advisory on November 12, 2024, warning of heavy rainfall and potential flooding in the Mediterranean and Andalusian coastal regions through November 15. Rainfall is expected to reach 150 mm (5.9 inches) in 24 hours in some areas, only two weeks after previous severe flooding in eastern Spain. The advisory forecasts torrential rainfall for parts of Spain’s Mediterranean coast, the Balearic Islands, and Andalusia due to an incoming DANA (Isolated Depression at High Levels) storm. This meteorological phenomenon, involving cold air at high altitudes interacting with warm, humid surface air, often results in significant rainfall and atmospheric instability in the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) This current DANA storm, moving from France toward Spain, has already prompted AEMET’s warning for flash floods, coastal turbulence, and potential thunderstorms through mid-week. The storm system is expected to intensify on November 13, bringing further heavy rainfall to Mediterranean areas. Rainfall accumulation may reach 150 mm (5.9 inches) in the Málaga region and along the northern Valencia coast. Additional regions, including the southern Sistema Central, could experience moderate rainfall up to 80 mm (3.1 inches) in 24 hours. The storm system is projected to move southwest by November 14, posing an increased risk in western Andalusia, especially near the Straits of Gibraltar. This movement could also bring sustained rainfall to the Valencia and Málaga coasts, with totals between 100 mm and 150 mm (3.9 – 5.9 inches) expected. Light rain may affect other parts of the central and southwestern peninsula as temperatures are forecasted to rise. AEMET anticipates that the intensity of the storms will lessen by November 15. However, Andalusia may still face residual strong showers as the storm system weakens. Snowfall is also expected in the Pyrenees and Cantabrian mountains, with snow levels predicted to drop to approximately 1 000 m (3 280 feet). The previous DANA event at the end of October 2024 led to extreme rainfall in eastern Spain, especially Valencia, where numerous towns and cities faced severe flooding, widespread property damage, and ongoing cleanup efforts. Several areas experienced more than a year’s worth of rain, resulting in deaths of 223 people, with 23 missing. This was one of the deadliest natural disasters in Spain’s history. The Valencia region has a long history of catastrophic flooding, with records dating back to the 14th century.
Heavy rain triggers severe flooding in Málaga province, Spain - (video) A severe storm unleashed heavy rainfall across Malaga province early Wednesday, November 13, 2024 with intense downpours exceeding 120 mm (4.72 inches) in Malaga city, leading to widespread flooding and river overflows in multiple municipalities. A severe storm struck Malaga province early Wednesday, bringing heavy rain that led to severe flooding. The storm dumped up to 70 mm (2.76 inches) of rain in just one hour, with a total accumulation of up to 145 mm (5.71 inches) in the Axarquía region and more than 120 mm (4.72 inches) in the city of Malaga. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) Several municipalities, including Benamargosa, Colmenar, and Almogía, experienced flooding due to the storm. In the Campanillas neighborhood in Malaga, a river overflowed due to heavy rainfall. Thousands of people have been evacuated and schools in the entire Malaga have been closed. Many supermarkets are also closed. Around 3 000 people living in close proximity to the Guadalhorce River have been told to leave their homes. The interior portions of the Axarquía region and the city of Malaga recorded the heaviest rainfall, with at least five rain gauges in the region showing over 100 mm (3.94 inches) as of 09:00 local time (LT) on Wednesday. The municipality of Alfarnatejo in the Axarquía region recorded 145.4 mm (5.72 inches) of rainfall in just five hours on Wednesday, with 37 mm (1.46 inches) falling in one hour. In the Benamargosa region, rainfall accumulation reached up to 134.4 mm (5.29 inches), with 90 mm (3.54 inches) falling in just three hours, leading to an overflow of the Benamargosa River and subsequently an overflow at the mouth of the Vélez River.
Philippines prepares for Typhoon “Man-Yi” after Usagi causes significant damage - (video) Over 24 000 residents of the Cagayan province were evacuated ahead of Typhoon “Usagi,” which made landfall on November 14, 2024, as a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon. While the storm has caused significant damage and displaced thousands, the country is already preparing for the next threat — Typhoon “Man-Yi.”
- Super Typhoon “Usagi” made landfall over the Cagayan region on November 14, 2024 causing widespread flooding, displacing thousands, and knocking down power lines.
- A bridge in Luzon collapsed due to strong river currents, while several other bridges were submerged and rendered unusable.
- As of November 15, the storm was moving southwards toward Taiwan, prompting the issuance of Land and Sea Warnings for regions like Pingtung and Hengchun.
- The Philippines is bracing for Typhoon “Man-Yi,” which is expected to develop into a super typhoon by November 17 and potentially impact eastern towns and Manila, with preemptive evacuations starting on November 15.
Super Typhoon “Usagi” makes landfall over Cagayan, Philippines - Super Typhoon “Usagi” – known in the Philippines as Ofel, made landfall near Baggao in the Cagayan region of the Philippines at 13:30 local time (LT) on November 14, 2024, weakening to a typhoon upon landfall. The system is expected to bring strong winds and heavy rains across the Philippines, with authorities raising Wind Signal numbers 3 and 4 in regions where significant damage is anticipated.
- Typhoon Usagi (Ofel) made landfall over Baggao in Cagayan at approximately 13:30 local time (LT) on November 14 and weakened into a typhoon.
- Maximum sustained winds at landfall reached 175 km/h (109 mph) with gusts of 240 km/h (149 mph).
- The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 4 for Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northeastern portion of Isabela.
- Intense rainfall exceeding 200 mm (7.9 inches) is possible over Cagayan and Isabela between November 14 and 15.
Typhoon “Usagi” (Ofel) made landfall over Baggao in Cagayan at approximately 13:30 LT on November 14 and weakened into a typhoon after rapidly intensifying into a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon on November 13. Maximum sustained winds at landfall reached 175 km/h (109 mph) with gusts of 240 km/h (149 mph). As of 14:00 LT, the system was located approximately 50 km (31 miles) east of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, and was moving west-northwestward at 20 km/h (12 mph).
Philippines prepares for Typhoon “Man-Yi” after Usagi causes significant damage - -- Typhoon “Usagi” made landfall over the Cagayan region in the Philippines on November 14, flooding villages, displacing thousands, and knocking down power lines across the region. Over 24 000 people were evacuated from the Cagayan province ahead of the typhoon’s landfall, which had rapidly intensified into a Category 4-equivalent super typhoon on November 13. No casualties related to the typhoon have been reported thus far. A bridge connecting two towns in the Luzon region collapsed on November 14 after rampaging river currents struck it. Several other bridges were engulfed in floodwaters and rendered unusable, provincial officials said. Rescue operatives were seen using boats to rescue people in the affected regions. As of November 15, the system was moving southwards towards Taiwan, where the meteorological agency issued a Land Warning on November 14, followed by a Sea Warning issued on the morning of November 15. The Land Warning covers the Pingtung and Hengchun regions in southern Taiwan. Rainfall is expected to intensify on November 15, with Hualien and Taitung expecting the heaviest downpours. Pingtung will also experience heavy rains due to the system on November 15 and 16. Several flights and ferry services across Taiwan have been suspended, while rail services have been halted in the Alishan region through November 15 and 16. Usagi was the fifth major storm to batter the Philippines in less than a month, coming just two days after Typhoon “Toraji” struck the region, forcing over 80 000 people to evacuate. Many of those displaced by the previous storms were still in emergency shelters when Usagi struck.
Mountain Fire rages through Southern California causing massive destruction -- High winds led to the eruption of the Mountain Fire in the Ventura County region of Southern California on Wednesday. As of Friday, the fire had destroyed more than 130 structures, mostly residential homes and has damaged 88 others. Though it began in Somis, a small unincorporated area of Ventura County, it now threatens more populous neighborhoods in the area northwest of Los Angeles. As of Sunday morning, the fire had engulfed 20,630 acres (83.49 square kilometers) and was considered 21 percent contained. Dozens of nearby schools and colleges had canceled classes as a precaution, with nearly two dozen roads closed and officials warning residents to boil water before drinking. Several structures used by the Crestview Mutual Water Company were destroyed by the fire, leading to the water advisory. The company released a statement that “these conditions may have caused harmful contaminants, including benzene and other volatile organic chemicals (VOCs) to enter the water system.” The statement continued, “Bottled water should be used for all drinking (including baby formula and juice), brushing teeth, and making ice and food preparation until further notice.” The situation has become so dire that the administration of California Governor Gavin Newsom secured a Fire Management Assistance Grant from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to bolster the state’s inadequate firefighting resources. The fire continues to spread despite the fact that 48 pieces of firefighting equipment, along with 9 helicopters and over 100 personnel from 19 counties have already been deployed to fight it. This is the ninth such time this year alone that the governor has sought the FEMA grant after he requested support for the state’s emergency response to the Airport, Bridge, Boyles, Line, Borel, Park, Hawarden, French and Thompson fires. The Airport Fire is reflected on Lake Elsinore, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024, in Lake Elsinore, California [AP Photo/Eric Thayer] Ten people suffered non-life-threatening injuries as of this writing with no deaths yet reported. Although temperatures have dropped in recent weeks, strong gusts of what are known locally as Santa Ana winds fueled the spread of the fire. While the winds began subsiding Friday morning, giving firefighters a chance to gain ground, meteorologists predict that they could resume in force by the middle of this week. Fire conditions have also been exacerbated by an unseasonably warm summer in which the region experienced extended periods with triple-digit temperatures. A much higher than normal winter rainfall did little to offset an explosion of wildfires in the summer and autumn periods. In fact, on a global scale, the summer of 2024 was the hottest in recorded human history. According to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the global average temperature in the Northern hemisphere was a record-breaking 62.24 degrees Fahrenheit. The high temperatures were particularly alarming to climate science researchers who found that that the rising temperatures exceeded even some of their most pessimistic models. Despite these alarming trends, the incoming Trump administration has indicated that it will completely roll back even the meager climate change measures installed by past administrations, following an interview in August with Elon Musk where Trump stated that global warming was a hoax. The Environmental Protection Administration, the Interior Department and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are all slated to be either eliminated or drastically defunded, not only as sops to the fossil fuel industry, but as part of the ruling elite’s attack on science and scientific thought more generally. Trump has also threatened to withhold disaster aid to the state of California if it fails to loosen endangered species and other environmental regulations. During his first administration, Trump already withheld such aid to the state of Washington and successfully delayed aid requested by California Governor Gavin Newsom.
Amtrak Suspends Service Between New York and New Haven Because of Fire - The New York Times -- Amtrak suspended service between New York City and New Haven, Conn., just before the evening rush hour on Tuesday after a fire in the Bronx cut off power to trains in the area, officials said. The railroad operator said Tuesday night that it expected to resume normal operations at around 2 p.m. on Wednesday. Amtrak encouraged those traveling between New York and New Haven to take Metro-North trains, where their tickets would be honored because of the disruption. In an earlier news release, Amtrak cited “reports of a brush fire” east of Pennsylvania Station in Manhattan as the reason for the power outage. The release did not provide additional details, but an Amtrak spokesman said that initial reports indicated the fire was connected to a transformer at an Amtrak substation. Philip O’Brien, a spokesman for Con Edison, said that the fire started around 2:30 p.m. as Amtrak employees were working on a high-voltage feeder cable at a substation in the Parkchester section of the Bronx that is near a Con Edison substation. A spark ignited material on the ground, and flames soon spread to a parking lot on the Con Edison property, Mr. O’Brien said. No one affiliated with Con Edison was injured, but two or three employees’ cars were damaged, he added. No Con Edison customers were affected, he said. Kevin Woods, the Fire Department’s chief of operations, said at a news conference late Tuesday that firefighters had responded to two fires at about the same time in roughly the same section of the Bronx, one at the Amtrak substation and another at a large warehouse. Chief Woods said fire marshals were investigating what caused the fires or whether they were related. There was “brush burning” outside the warehouse, but it was unclear what role it had played in that blaze, he added. Hundreds of fires have flared up in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut recently as a record-breaking season of drought continues, with the dead leaves on the ground and still clinging to trees acting as kindling, and gusty winds fanning the flames. The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning for a broad swath of the New York City metropolitan region on Tuesday, indicating that a combination of strong winds, low relative humidity and dry fuels created a significantly heightened risk of fire.
Brush fire in Manhattan sends smoke billowing over NYC skyline - A large brush fire broke out in Upper Manhattan as the Tri-State deals with the increased threat of fires amid drought conditions, dry air and strong winds. (Video from SkyFOX shows smoking covering nearly all of the borough's Inwood neighborhood and the West Side Highway.)Winds blowing from the north are pushing the smoke down to the George Washington Bridge and through Midtown.People in Manhattan should expect to smell smoke, and residents near the fire were advised to close windows and avoid the area.The fire appeared to have started in a wooded area near West 207th Street and Seaman Avenue in Inwood Hill. The FDNY tweeted around 5 p.m. that the brush fire "is now a two-alarm fire.""The FDNY is utilizing multiple units, including drones, Marine Units, and Brush Fire Units," the FDNY tweeted. There is no word on what started this fire, nor reports of disruptions or injuries.Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine posted dramatic video of flames surrounding a walking path.High fire danger impacting millions of people across New York and New Jersey is forecast to last through the weekend, as the region remains bone-dry with little to no rain on the horizon.In New Jersey firefighters continue to battle the Jennings Creek Fire in West Milford. The firestraddling the New York and New Jersey state lines is 30% contained, according to the New Jersey Forest Fire Service.
Inwood Park Ablaze as Brush Fires Reach Historic Levels Across NYC -A brush fire in Upper Manhattan’s Inwood Hill Park began at around 3 p.m. on Wednesday afternoon, hours after the FDNY reported it had responded to a record 229 brush fires citywide in the last two weeks — surpassing the 200 fought by firefighters over the full month of October last year. As nearly two dozen FDNY and NYPD vehicles and dozens of first responders were near a soccer field just west of the park’s nature center at around 6 p.m., a FDNY lieutenant said that firefighters would be battling the blaze for at least a few more hours, pointing to several hotspots in heavily wooded areas. Firefighters were feeding water from the adjacent Spuyten Duyvil Creek to quench the flames said the lieutenant, who wasn’t authorized to speak to the press. He added that the department could use more responders to help stretch hose-lines and more equipment like brush-fire trucks and portable tanks during the historic drought.
Dispatch transmissions from firefighters revealed a complicated and arduous operation to put out hard-to-reach pockets of fire throughout the park, with the response initially divided into two “boxes,” allocating 80 firefighters and EMS personnel from 15 units to two separate command structures in an attempt to divide and conquer. Firefighters deployed drones from the department’s Command Tactical Unit and, nearly an hour into the operation, chiefs on the scene summoned specialized brush fire units and two fire boats to aid in the response. “We have several acres on fire, and it’s starting to take off,” reported Ladder 56 earlier in the afternoon while responding to the blaze in Inwood Park from Webster Avenue in The Bronx.Video footage posted by Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine showed flames dotting either side of a rock-lined pathway.While FDNY fights hundreds of brush fires a year — not to be confused with wildland or wild fires —the department’s specialized brush fire unit, which consists of eight 24-hour companies strategically located across the city, responded to just 12 brush fires last year according to unofficial data tracked by fdnewyork.com, an FDNY fan site. Those units, said FDNY spokesperson Clare Bourke, have vehicles equipped with a booster tank, medical equipment, portable de-watering pump and chain saw that “are especially suitable for operations on fires remote from roadway or sources of water supply.” At least one fire company told Manhattan dispatchers that hydrants were in short supply in their corner of the leafy, wooded park with a terraced hillside abutting the Hudson River and suggested drafting water from the river — a tactic fire engines use only on rare occasions when hydrants are unavailable and a large body of water is close by. As the blaze grew to a third alarm Wednesday evening, firefighters were still struggling to find “positive water sources,” according to a progress report given by a high-ranking chief on the scene to Manhattan dispatch.The city’s engine companies remain staffed with one fewer firefighter across all but 20 companies due to Bloomberg-era cuts that Mayor Eric Adams has yet to fully restore. An unofficial study conducted by retired Deputy Chief Vincent Dunn revealed engine companies with a fifth firefighter nearly halve the time it takes to stretch hose lines. The so-called fifth firefighter is critical during prolonged operations, extreme weather conditions and particularly challenging emergencies.The recent brush fires over a historically dry stretch included two separate ones over four days in wooded parts of the Bronx’s sprawling Van Cortlandt Park that have local residents and officials concerned about what could be coming before significant rain finally arrives. “Remarkably dry conditions in October and so far in November have resulted in a historic amount of brush fires over the last two weeks,” FDNY Commissioner Robert Tucker said in a statement on Wednesday, hours before another brush fire erupted in Inwood Hill Park. “Due to a significant lack of rainfall, the threat of fast spreading brush fires fueled by dry vegetation and windy conditions pose a real threat to our members and our city.” The city’s advisories began to reach New Yorkers last week, as they got much more direct warnings from their senses. “We could smell it from our apartment”
EPCCD directs cloud seeding for pollution control to address extreme AQI levels in Multan, Pakistan - Marriyum Aurangzeb, the Senior Minister of Punjab, instructed an investigation into cloud seeding options in Multan after the air quality index (AQI) reached an extreme 2 175 on November 8, 2024. The rise in air pollution is a year-round epidemic that requires frequent interventions, EPCCD noted. The air quality index (AQI) readings climbed to 1 914 in Multan, Pakistan, early on Saturday, November 9. This marked the city’s second consecutive day as the “most polluted” in the world. The highest AQI on November 8 reached a level of 2 266, with PM2.5 concentrations at 1 212.0 µg/m³ at 21:00 LT (16:00 UTC). These readings indicate an extreme level of air pollution, with numbers significantly surpassing hazardous thresholds. Typically, AQI levels above 300 already represent a critical health risk, while readings over 500 mark extremely dangerous conditions. Multan’s values of 1 914 and 2 266 represent a severe, almost unprecedented level of air quality degradation, which poses acute health risks to all exposed populations, especially vulnerable groups. The PM2.5 concentration recorded at 1 212 µg/m³—far above the recommended World Health Organization (WHO) limit of 15 µg/m³ for 24-hour exposure—indicates extremely fine particulate matter in the air. At these levels, immediate health effects are expected for the general population, and prolonged exposure can lead to long-term respiratory, cardiovascular, and even neurological complications. The AQI levels decreased on Sunday, November 10 to a reading of 609, leaving the air quality still dangerous. PM2.5 concentrations reached 241.9 µg/m³ at 18:00 PKT (13:00 UTC), a level 48.4 times higher than the WHO-recommended safe limit. Lahore and Punjab also faced similar air pollution levels, but not as severe as Multan. satellite image of pakistan on november 10 2024 Aurangzeb instructed Raja Jahangir Anwar, the Secretary of Punjab’s Environment Protection and Climate Change Department (EPCCD), to investigate the options for cloud seeding in Multan. The EPCCD launched “SMOG Mitigation Model 2.0” action plan, in July, to prepare for the severely impacted months of October, yet the situation persisted. “We needed a joint action plan and collaboration from multiple sectors. The smog mitigation plan has been institutionalized within the Planning and Development Department of Punjab,” Aurangzeb stated. Cloud seeding, now being explored as a response measure, could help reduce AQI temporarily by encouraging rainfall. Rain can help clear airborne pollutants, including fine particulate matter such as PM2.5, which is a major contributor to smog. By inducing precipitation, cloud seeding may reduce the concentration of these particles, improving visibility and providing short-term relief to residents. This process, however, serves as a temporary solution and is ideally paired with long-term strategies to reduce emissions from vehicles, industries, and agricultural burning. The plan is aimed to use a multi-sectoral approach, leading to a crackdown on violators of environmental regulations. EPCCD believes that the rise in AQI is a year-round epidemic that requires frequent interventions.
Extreme weather cost $2tn globally over past decade, report finds - Violent weather cost the world $2tn over the past decade, a report has found, as diplomats descend on the Cop29 climate summit for a tense fight over finance. The analysis of 4,000 climate-related extreme weather events, from flash floods that wash away homes in an instant to slow-burning droughts that ruin farms over years, found economic damages hit $451bn across the past two years alone. The figures reflect the full cost of extreme weather rather than the share scientists can attribute to climate breakdown. They come as world leaders argue over how much rich countries should pay to help poor countries clean up their economies, adapt to a hotter world and deal with the damage done by increasingly violent weather. “The data from the past decade shows definitively that climate change is not a future problem,” said John Denton, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), which commissioned the report. “Major productivity losses from extreme weather events are being felt in the here and now by the real economy.” The report found a gradual upward trend in the cost of extreme weather events between 2014 and 2023, with a spike in 2017 when an active hurricane season battered North America. The US suffered the greatest economic losses over the 10-year period, at $935bn, followed by China at $268bn and India at $112bn. Germany, Australia, France and Brazil all made the top 10. When measured a person, small islands such as Saint Martin and the Bahamas saw the greatest losses. Fire, water, wind and heat have wiped more and more dollars off government balance sheets as the world has grown richer, people have settled in disaster-prone regions, and fossil fuel pollution has baked the planet. But until recent years, scientists struggled to estimate the extent of the role that humans played by warping extreme weather events with planet-heating gas. Climate breakdown was responsible for more than half of the 68,000 heat deaths during the scorching European summer of 2022, a study found last month, and doubled the chance of the extreme levels of rainfall that hammered central Europe this September, an early attribution study found. In some other cases, researchers found only mild effects or did not observe a climate link at all. Ilan Noy, a disaster economist at Victoria University of Wellington, who was not involved in the ICC study, said its numbers align with previous research he had done but cautioned that the underlying data did not capture the full picture. “The main caveat is that these numbers actually miss the impact where it truly matters, in poor communities and in vulnerable countries.” A study Noy co-wrote last year estimated the costs of extreme weather attributable to climate breakdown at $143bn a year, mostly due to loss of human life, but was limited by data gaps, particularly in Africa.
World close to 1.5C warming limit according to new pre-industrial temperature estimate ABC Australia --The world has already warmed 1.49 degrees Celsius because of humans compared to pre-industrial levels, according to a new study of carbon dioxide content in Antarctic ice cores. Research published today in Nature Geoscience said when compared to a pre-1700 baseline, the planet reached the temperature increase at the end of 2023. The figure is higher than globally accepted estimates of about 1.3C of warming, as highlighted in the United Nations's latest emissions gap report, which is based on historical temperature observations from 1850 to 1900. The latter methodology is used by the world authority on global warming, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for its reports which inform international climate policy. The IPCC's approach has guided policy to meet the 2015 Paris Agreement targets after nations around the globe agreed to try to keep warming below 2C and to aim for 1.5C. Ice cores from places such as Antarctica and the Arctic Circle can help provide insights into historical global temperatures. (ABC News: Jane Norman)But Andrew Jarvis, a climate scientist at Lancaster University and co-author of the new study, said the climate policy and scientific communities should rethink what we consider the pre-industrial baseline."We know that there's warming baked into the 1850 to 1900 estimate, simply because that is not the beginning of the Industrial Revolution," he said"Significant things had already happened by that point and we're offering a way out there to a more scientifically secure baseline to operate from." Scientists adopted the 1850 to 1900 time period for the simple reason it had the earliest reliable temperature data from land and sea observations around the world. Reliable and consistently recorded temperatures pre-1850 that cover the Industrial Revolution, which occurred from about 1760 to 1840, are sparse. But Dr Jarvis thought he could reach a pre-1700 baseline before the Industrial Revolution began by using Antarctic ice cores. Dr Jarvis said other scientists had been able to measure the concentration of CO2 in bubbles in layers of ice that corresponded with different time periods."They can ... then tie the [CO2] concentration of the bubbles to the air concentration at that point in time," he said.By using the CO2 ice records from Law Dome in East Antarctica, Dr Jarvis and his co-author, climate physicist Piers Forster from the University of Leeds, could then estimate historical temperatures.
Key Atlantic current at risk of collapse: Research -Scientists warned for the first time in a new report that melting ice sheets might be slowing key ocean currents at both poles, leading to “potentially dire consequences” for a greater sea-level rise along the U.S. East Coast, according to research from the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative. “Current climate commitments, leading the world to well over 2°C of warming, would bring disastrous and irreversible consequences for billions of people from global ice loss,” the report read. According to the report, which was published Tuesday, continuing to bypass the 1.5 °C threshold is “extremely risky,” as the longer it is breached, “the greater the risk of crossing tipping points for both polar ice sheets; many land glaciers; and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is a vital system of Atlantic Ocean currents that influences global weather patterns. In the report, more than 50 scientists cautioned that if humanity continues with high carbon emissions levels for the rest of the century, the melting cryosphere will bring global ecosystem, social and economic impacts. The report also noted that under a high emissions scenario, the southern Arctic would become drier as it would experience an altered water cycle, which would “influence Arctic sea ice, biodiversity patterns, and even the global climate by impacting ocean fresh-water storage and major Atlantic currents.” The scientists also warned that, based on the research, “the costs of loss and damage will be even more extreme, with many regions experiencing sea-level rise or water resource loss well beyond adaptation limits.”
Heavy ashfall from Shiveluch volcano creates hazardous conditions in Kamchatka, Russia - Heavy ash from Shiveluch volcano coated over 7 000 km² (2 700 mi²) of land east of the volcano, creating hazardous conditions in populated areas like Ust-Kamchatsk and Klyuchi. The ash spread up to 430 km (270 miles) away, disrupting regional flights and prompting authorities to issue the highest aviation alert. Shiveluch, one of Kamchatka’s most active volcanoes, erupted multiple times on November 7 and 8, producing dense ash columns that rose to 11 km (36 000 feet) a.s.l. The eruptions resulted in almost complete destruction of “300 years of the Russian Academy of Sciences” lava dome. Powerful pyroclastic flows were produced on the west flanks of the volcano, according to reports by the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology” (IViS) of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. At the front of this flow, other flows began to form lahars — mud flows that occur when hot volcanic material mixes with colder waters, snow or ice. Satellite image of ash produced by the eruption at Sheveluch volcano on November 8, 2024. The eruptions deposited ash over 7 000 km2 (2 700 mi2) east of the volcano, including towns in the Ust-Kamchatsk district and the community of Klyuchi, located 50 km (31 miles) from the volcano. In the city of Ust-Kamchatsk, located 100 km (62 miles SE of the volcano), local authorities closed kindergartens and schools as a precaution. “The road approaching Ust-Kamchatsk is covered with a thick layer of ash,” Alexandra Ostrikova of Russia 24 reported. “As a result, the tires have very poor grip on the road. The car easily skids and is thrown to the side. The situation is complicated by poor visibility.”
Strong explosive eruption at Etna volcano, Italy - A strong explosive eruption started at Etna volcano just before 11:00 UTC on November 10, 2024. Direct observations of the eruption were prevented due to dense meteorological cloud cover, however, notable ashfall was reported east and southeast of the volcano. Activity at Italy’s Mount Etna started increasing around 10:00 UTC on November 10 and rapidly progressed into strong explosive activity at 10:46 UTC. Dense meteorological clouds prevented direct observations but the eruption was registered at seismometers, showing values similar to previous paroxysmal events, and volcanic ash cloud was observed on satellite imagery. As a result, Etna Volcano Observatory increased the Aviation Color Code from Yellow to Orange. Strong explosive activity with an estimated top of volcanic ash cloud reaching about 6 km (20 000 feet) above sea level (a.s.l.) and moving southeast was reported at 11:06 UTC and the Aviation Color Code was raised to Red. At 15:00 UTC, the Toulouse VAAC reported that explosive activity at the volcano continues, with cloud, mainly composed of SO2 and some ash, drifting southeastward. The activity started decreasing by 18:00 UTC but the Aviation Color Code remained at Red.
Major eruption of Cacahual (El Aburrido) mud volcano in Antioquia, Colombia injures eight, damages homes (several twitter videos) A major eruption of the Cacahual (El Aburrido) mud volcano in Antioquia, Colombia, on November 11, 2024, resulted in injuries to at least eight people and significant damage to nearby homes. The eruption produced a large fireball, affecting multiple communities and prompting evacuations for dozens of families. Cacahual’s history includes a fatal eruption in 1992 that resulted in seven deaths and 20 injuries. The volcano, located about 4.5 km (2.8 miles) northwest of El Tres (population 2 909) in Turbo, Antioquia, has impacted several communities, with 109 families living near the volcano and along nearby roads reporting damage to homes. Shortly after the event, El Tres Mayor Alejandro Abuchar reported that three children were affected by smoke inhalation and lost consciousness momentarily. “They are being treated at the San Pedro de Urabá hospital,” Abuchar said. Additionally, the Coordinator of Risk Management reported that five other people fainted due to the eruption. All individuals affected have been transported to local health facilities, with no reported severe injuries. As part of the immediate response, officials have begun evacuating 16 families, including 30 children, from impacted areas to schools in Manta Gorda and Santiago de Urabá. In Los Mangos, authorities have also temporarily relocated 35 children to a local school to ensure their safety.
Bali flights canceled as Lewotobi volcano eruption sends ash 9 km (29 500 feet) high, Indonesia - Flight disruptions continue for thousands of travelers as Indonesia’s Lewotobi volcano intensifies, sending ash clouds as high as 9 km (29 500 feet) on Tuesday, November 12, 2024, prompting airlines to cancel flights to and from Bali’s main airport. Authorities expanded the exclusion zone as volcanic debris was ejected up to 8 km (5 miles) from the crater. lewotobi laki-laki volcano eruption november 12 2024 Lewotobi Laki-laki eruption on November 12, 2024. Credit: PVMBG Indonesia’s Lewotobi volcano, located in East Nusa Tenggara, has continued erupting since November 3, disrupting flights in the region. On November 12, ash clouds were ejected at least 17 times, with the largest plume reaching 9 km (29 500 feet) above sea level (a.s.l.), according to Indonesia’s Center for Volcanology and Geological Disaster Mitigation. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) Authorities expanded the exclusion zone after volcanic materials were observed reaching distances up to 8 km (5 miles) from the crater, marking the most intense eruption since the volcano’s current activity phase began on November 3. Emergency protocols have been heightened, and authorities advise continued caution within and around the expanded danger zone surrounding Lewotobi. Thousands of travelers in Indonesia and Australia were reported stranded due to the eruption, which has caused ongoing flight disruptions at Bali’s I Gusti Ngurah Rai International Airport. Since the activity began, ash columns have reached as high as 12.2 km (40 000 feet) above sea level, forcing officials to raise the Aviation Color Code to Red on November 3. Between November 8 and 12, approximately 84 flights were affected at Bali’s international airport, including 36 scheduled departures and 48 arrivals, with flight operations hindered due to fluctuating visibility and ash levels. Virgin Australia canceled 10 flights to and from Indonesia on November 13, citing adverse weather conditions from volcanic activity. Qantas also experienced delays, with two return flights between Australia and Denpasar postponed. Jetstar took similar action, stating that travel conditions were unsafe due to the ash cloud from Mount Lewotobi.
Strong M9.4 solar flare erupts from Region 3889, CME produced – (2 videos) A strong solar flare measuring M9.4 erupted from Active Region 3889 at 12:06 UTC on November 10, 2024. The event started at 11:51 and ended at 12:14 UTC. This event was associated with a Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 928 km/h, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Additionally, a 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) lasting 2 minutes and with a peak flux of 400 sfu was associated with the flare event. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the South Atlantic Ocean and Africa at the time of the flare.
Global CO2 emissions to hit record high in 2024, report says --Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, including those from burning fossil fuels, are set to hit a record high this year, pulling the world further off course from averting more destructive climate extremes, scientists said on Wednesday. The Global Carbon Budget report, published during the U.N.'s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan, said global CO2 emissions are set to total 41.6 B tonnes (t) in 2024, up from 40.6 Bt last year. The bulk of these emissions are from burning coal, oil and gas. Those emissions would total 37.4 Bt in 2024, up by 0.8% in 2023, the report said. The rest are from land use, a category that includes deforestation and forest fires. The report by more than 80 institutions was led by the University of Exeter in Britain. "We don't see a sign of fossil fuel emissions peaking in 2024," said lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter. Without immediate and steep emissions cuts worldwide, "we will just go straight into the 1.5°C target, we'll just pass it and continue," he said. Countries agreed under the 2015 Paris Agreement to try to stop global temperatures rising more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) to avoid climate change's worst impacts. This would require steep emissions cuts every year from now until 2030 and beyond. Instead, fossil fuel emissions have climbed over the last decade. Land use emissions had declined in this period - until this year, when a severe drought in the Amazon caused forest fires, driving up annual land use emissions by 13.5% to 4.2 Bt. Some scientists have said such slow progress means the 1.5°C aim can no longer realistically be met. This year's emissions data showed evidence of some countries rapidly expanding renewable energy and electric cars, the authors said. Progress, however, was sharply uneven - with rich industrialized nations' emissions decreasing, and emerging economies' emissions still rising. Tensions between nations erupted on Tuesday at COP29 over who should lead the world's transition away from fossil fuels - which produce around 80% of global energy. COP29 host Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev accused Western countries of hypocrisy for lecturing others while still being major consumers and producers of fossil fuels. Emissions in the U.S., the world's top oil and gas producer and consumer, are expected to decrease by 0.6% this year, while European Union emissions are set to fall by 3.8%. Meanwhile, India's emissions will rise by 4.6% this year, driven by soaring power demand fueled by economic growth. Emissions in China, today the world's biggest emitter and second-largest oil consumer, are set to marginally increase by 0.2%. The authors said China's emissions from oil use have likely peaked, as electric vehicles gain market share. Emissions from international aviation and shipping are also expected to jump by 7.8% this year, as air travel continues to recover from a drop in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Mälarenergi Selects Babcock & Wilcox for Carbon Capture Tech Study --Ohio-based Babcock & Wilcox (B&W) on Nov. 11 said it landed a contract to conduct a full-scale feasibility study of its carbon capture technology’s use by Swedish power company Mälarenergi. The study will focus on incorporating B&W’s SolveBright CO2 capture technology into Mälarenergi’s waste-to-energy plant and district heating system in Västerås, Sweden. The city-owned electric power and district heating provider aims to capture and permanently store 400,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions annually and achieve carbon neutrality by 2035, according to a news release.B&W said its post-combustion carbon capture technology absorbs CO2 from a plant’s flue gas in an absorber using a regenerable solvent.The study will also cover the management and identification of usable heat, optimization and rebalancing of the waste-to-energy facility and selecting the best technical configuration for higher operational efficiency, the release stated.
Study finds carbon footprint from private aviation grew 46% between 2019 and 2023 - The carbon footprint from private jet travel grew 46% between 2019 and 2023 according to a new open-access study published in Communications Earth & Environment. The European research team calculated the sector’s CO2 emissions using flight tracker data from the ADS-B Exchange platform for the period 2019 to 2023. Flight times for 25,993 private aircraft and 18,655,789 individual flights in 2019-2023 were linked to 72 aircraft models and their average fuel consumption.Private aviation (PA) is the most energy-intense form of air transport, but its global scale, distribution, and energy intensity remain insufficiently understood. … PA has received attention because of its interlinkages with climate change and emission distributions. Users of PA have been described by industry as the “ultra-high net worth”, including about 256,000 individuals, or 0.003% of the global adult population, owning an average of US$123 million and a combined wealth of US$31 trillion.Private aircraft can be owned, or accessed through demand chartering, membership programs, or fractional ownership. The sector has relevance for climate politics, as international aviation is not covered by efficient climate policies. While the scale and distribution of PA remain insufficiently understood, industry expectations point to continued growth. PA use is concentrated, with six countries accounting for more than 80% of aircraft. The US is home to about 4% of the world population, but 68.7% of all PA are registered in the country. Brazil has the second highest number (3.5%, 927 private aircraft), followed by Canada (2.9%, 770), Germany (2.4%, 630), Mexico (2.0%; 534), and the UK (2.0%; 522). Per capita, Malta has by far the highest density of PA (46.5 per 100,000 residents), followed by the US (5.5), Switzerland (3.8), and Austria (2.9)The researchers found that private aviation contributed at least 15.6 Mt CO2 in direct emissions in 2023, or about 3.6 t CO2 per flight. Almost half of all flights (47.4%) are shorter than 500 km. Flight pattern analysis confirmed extensive travel for leisure purposes, and for cultural and political events. Regulation is needed to address the sector’s growing climate impact, the researchers concluded.
EPA finalizes rule to reduce methane emissions from oil and gas sector; Waste Emissions Charge - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced a final rule to reduce methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. The rule facilitates implementation of Congress’s directive in the Inflation Reduction Act to collect a Waste Emissions Charge. Congress established the charge on large emitters of methane if their emissions exceed specific performance levels and directed EPA to collect the charge and implement other features of the program, including providing appropriate exemptions for actions that reduce methane releases. The final rule delivers on this directive and incentivizes companies to take near-term action to conserve valuable energy resources for American consumers and reduce methane emissions. EPA estimates that this rule alone will result in cumulative emissions reductions of 1.2 million metric tons of methane (34 million metric tons CO2-equivalent) through 2035—the equivalent of taking nearly 8 million gas-powered cars off the road for a year. As directed by Congress, the Waste Emissions Charge applies only to waste emissions from high-emitting oil and gas facilities. The Inflation Reduction Act provides that the Waste Emissions Charge applies to methane from certain oil and gas facilities that report emissions of more than 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year to the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, beginning with methane emissions reported in calendar year 2024. Also, as directed by Congress, the Waste Emissions Charge starts at $900 per metric ton of wasteful emissions in CY 2024, increasing to $1,200 for CY 2025, and $1,500 for CY 2026 and beyond, and only applies to emissions that exceed statutorily specified methane intensity levels. EPA’s final rule details how the charge will be implemented, including the calculation of the charge and how exemptions from the charge will be applied. Facilities in compliance with the recently finalized Clean Air Act standards for oil and gas operations would be exempt from the charge after certain criteria set by Congress are met. The agency expects that over time, fewer facilities will face the charge as they reduce their emissions and become eligible for this regulatory compliance exemption. In keeping with the provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Waste Emissions Charge works in concert both with Clean Air Act standards issued in March 2024 to limit methane from new and existing oil and gas operations, and with more than $1 billion in financial and technical assistance that EPA has partnered with the US Department of Energy to provide under the Inflation Reduction Act to support monitoring and mitigation of methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. In the final rule, EPA made changes in response to public comments that will provide owners and operators of oil and natural gas facilities with greater flexibility to achieve emission reductions and thereby avoid the charge. States now have a stronger incentive to submit satisfactory plans for limiting methane from existing oil and gas operations in a timely manner. Additionally, the Waste Emissions Charge will apply until oil and gas operators achieve full compliance with state plans, helping to incentivize better performance. The final rule also provides additional clarity on exemptions and other provisions of the rule.
Climate activists sentenced for powder attack on U.S. constitution - Two climate activists accused of throwing a red powder on the U.S. Constitution display case at the National Archives earlier this year have been sentenced to more than a year in prison, The Washington Post reported. Donald Zepeda, 35, of Maryland, and Jackson Green, 27, of Utah, were charged with felony destruction of government property after dumping the fine red powder over the display case, according in an indictment that was unsealed in District Count on Thursday per the Department of Justice (DOJ).The act, which the DOJ said caused more than $50,000 in damage and closed the Archives Rotunda for four days, was aimed at drawing attention to climate change, as reported by The Post.The rotunda houses the Constitution and the Declaration of Independence.“The National Archives Rotunda is the sanctuary for our nation’s founding documents. They are here for all Americans to view and understand the principles of our nation. Attacking such national treasures is “not the same as vandalizing a public park or the wall of an office building — physically or symbolically,” Archivist of the United States Colleen Shogan said in a statement to the court, as highlighted by The Post.The Post said that Zepeda’s attorney argued that “as viscerally infuriating” as the defendant’s actions might have been, “he never intended to damage the Constitution nor its case, nor anticipated the cost of cleaning it.” The intention, his defense said, was to have “the Biden administration declare a climate emergency,” The Post reported.
Trump 2.0 will alter global climate fighting efforts. Will others step up? (AP) — Global efforts to fight climate change stumbled but survived the last time Donald Trump was elected president and withdrew the United States from an international climate agreement. Other countries, states, cities and businesses picked up some of the slack.But numerous experts worry that a second Trump term will be more damaging, with the United States withdrawing even further from climate efforts in a way that could cripple future presidents’ efforts. With Trump, who has dismissed climate change, in charge of the world’s leading economy, those experts fear other countries — especially top polluting nation China — could use it as an excuse to ease off their own efforts to curb carbon emissions.“There’s no hope of reaching a safe climate without substantive action from the United States, from China, from Europe,” said Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson, who chairs the Global Carbon Project, a group of scientists that tracks countries’ carbon dioxide emissions, which have been rising globally. He said he’s certain the world is shooting past the internationally accepted threshold of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times. That’sjust a couple tenths of a degree away. Others believe the goal is alive.Trump’s reelection comes as the world is on track to set yet another record hot year, and has been lurching from drought to hurricane to flood to wildfire.On Wednesday, Tubiana, the former French official who helped forge the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement that Trump pulled out of, called the election result a setback for global climate action. But she added: “The Paris Agreement has proven resilient and is stronger than any single country’s policy.”The United Nations’ annual climate negotiations to follow on the Paris accord start next week in Baku, Azerbaijan. In the months after, all countries including the U.S. must issue national plans showing how they will increase efforts to limit heat-trapping emissions from coal, oil and natural gas.“Baku will be the earliest test of the resilience of the global climate regime,” said Asia Society Policy Institute Director Li Shuo, who foresees the European Union and China stepping up to fill the U.S. leadership void, especially economically. “It should also unite other countries.”It sort of did that in 2017, when Trump announced that the U.S. would abandon the Paris climate agreement.“Not a single country followed the U.S. out the door,” said Alden Meyer, a longtime climate negotiations analyst with the European think tank E3G. “We saw the birth and launch of the We Are Still In movement of subnational actors, investors, businesses, governors, mayors and others here in the U.S.”Meyer and others said a more serious step than withdrawing from Paris is possible. That would be pulling out of an underlying treaty from 1992 that set curbing climate change and saving biodiversity as part of global environmental goals for the 21st century, as well as withdrawing from the United Nations climate change fighting system that fosters negotiations, records emissions and what’s being done about them.Project 2025, a conservative post-election blueprint that the Trump campaign distanced itself from but was written by his allies, called for withdrawing from both that U.N. framework and the Paris Agreement.
Exxon CEO presses Trump to stay in Paris climate agreement -- Exxon CEO Darren Woods urged President-elect Trump to stay in the Paris climate agreement as the oil and gas industry prepares for the new administration. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Woods said the U.S. shouldn’t pull out of the agreement, an international pledge that seeks to mitigate the effects of climate change.Woods argued an U.S. exit from the 2015 agreement, which Trump has proposed he would do, would cause confusion around the world for climate efforts. The Trump administration first announced it would leave the accords in 2017.Exxon has publicly supported the Paris Agreement since 2015, the Journal noted.In 2020, the U.S. officially left the Paris climate accord. It was set in motion a year prior by Trump during his first term and was a landmark decision making the U.S. the only country in the world to withdraw from the agreement.Under President Biden, the U.S. rejoined the agreement in 2021.Woods told the Journal that it’s not helpful for businesses to have a “pendulum swing back and forth” as administrations change.“I don’t think the stops and starts are the right thing for business,” he said. “It is extremely inefficient. It creates a lot of uncertainty.”
Occidental CEO Sees Bipartisan DAC Support as Projects Advance - The first phase of Occidental Petroleum’s direct air capture (DAC) project Stratos is about 90% complete and on track to begin operations mid-2025 with a new design, company executives say. And despite fears by many that clean and lower-carbon energy setbacks are inevitable with President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said the next president will be positive for the U.S. energy industry, especially DAC. “I believe he understands better than anybody our need for energy independence here in the United States. He understands the industry. He understands how it plays in geopolitical politics,” she said Nov. 14 on the company’s third-quarter 2024 earnings call. “He knows what we’re trying to accomplish and what we’re doing. And he also understands the part that our direct air capture will play in helping with that energy independence and security.” Backed by federal and state incentives, companies such as Occidental’s 1PointFive, are pushing forward with DAC projects in an effort to lower emissions and slow global warming. Unlike more traditional carbon capture projects that, for example, target CO2 emissions form flue gas streams with post-combustion technology, DAC pulls CO2 directly from the air with the help of giant vacuums, heat, chemicals and filters. The process is energy intensive, which drives its higher cost compared to other methods of capturing CO2. Developers of DAC projects are counting on continued support to help make projects economic. Enacted under the Biden administration, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 increased the 45Q tax credit for DAC to $180 per ton of CO2 permanently stored and $130 per ton for used CO2. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, also signed into law by President Joe Biden, has also paved a path to DAC project funding, including for the South Texas Direct Air Capture facility that Oxy’s 1PointFive is developing in Kleberg County. The U.S. Department of Energy announced in September that 1PointFive secured funding for the South Texas hub. The facility will initially be capable of removing and storing 500,000 metric tons of CO2 per year. But that could increase to more than 1 million tons per year in the future. “We do expect to get the $500 million with the potential for $650 million,” Hollub said. “We also believe that 45Q will continue to have bipartisan support.” The tax credit not only incentivizes companies to decarbonize, the captured CO2 can also be used to recover more U.S. oil reserves, she said. “President Trump clearly supports that as well.” Occidental is already getting DAC costs down with Stratos. It intends to carry those learnings on to other DAC projects. Staying on track Expected to be the world’s largest DAC facility, Stratos is designed to capture up to 500,000 metric tons of CO2 annually when it becomes fully operational. Overall, the project—being developed in phases on a 65-acre site in Ector County, Texas— is about 70% complete. The first phase includes two capture trains and central processing. Currently, construction is underway to finish central processing and supporting infrastructure. “The new design will feature fewer air contactors and fewer pellet reactors, which should reduce operating expenses and increase reliability,” Hollub said. “We expect to bring the initial 250,000 tons per annum of capacity online in mid-2025, with the additional 250,000 tons to phase in during the next year incorporating those improvements.” Occidental expects to see savings between 10% and 15% from project modifications resulting from an improved air contactor construction method. The optimized design enables about a 30% reduction of air contactors and five large pellet reactors per train vs. 26 small ones, the company said. Hollub envisions Oxy’s DAC business fitting into the same category as its chemicals business or gas business in the Middle East. “I think DAC is going to be a value creator and a cash flow generator for us for a long time. We have work to do in the near-term,” Hollub said, later pointing out support for the technology. She added, “We’re already working down on the cost curve. We’re already looking at opportunities for improvements in DAC 2. So, we do believe that the commerciality is still there for these units, and the market is getting stronger all the time.”
DEP Extends General Permits: Oil & Gas Erosion & Sedimentation [ESCGP-3]; Beneficial Use Of Biosolids By Land Application [PAG-07 + PAG-08]; Beneficial Use Of Residential Septage [PAG-09] -- The Department of Environmental Protection published notices in the November 16 PA Bulletin extending these Water Quality and Waste General Permits--
- -- Oil & Gas General Permit For Erosion & Sedimentation [ESCGP-3] For 2 Months
- -- General Permit For Beneficial Use Of Biosolids By Land Application [PAG-08] Until New General Permit Is Finalized
- -- General Permit For Beneficial Use Of Exceptional Quality Biosolids By Land Application [PAG-07] Until New General Permit Is Finalized
- -- General Permit For Beneficial Use Of Residential Septage By Land Application [PAG-09] Until New General Permit Is Finalized
Read each notice for all the details and a contact person to answer questions. For more information on environmental programs in Pennsylvania, visit DEP’s website, Report Emergencies, Submit Environmental Complaints; Click Here to sign up for DEP’s newsletter; sign up for DEP’s eNotice; visit DEP’s Blog, Like DEP on Facebook, Follow DEP on Twitter and visit DEP’s YouTube Channel.
DEP Posted 60 Pages Of Permit-Related Notices In November 16 PA Bulletin -- Highlights of the environmental and energy notices in the November 16 PA Bulletin--
- -- PA Oil & Gas Industrial Facilities: Permit Notices, Opportunities To Comment - November 16 [PaEN]
- -- DEP published notices in the November 16 PA Bulletin extending these Water Quality and Waste General Permits--
- -- Oil & Gas General Permit For Erosion & Sedimentation [ESCGP-3] For 2 Months
- -- General Permit For Beneficial Use Of Biosolids By Land Application [PAG-08] Until New General Permit Is Finalized
- -- General Permit For Beneficial Use Of Exceptional Quality Biosolids By Land Application [PAG-07] Until New General Permit Is Finalized
- -- General Permit For Beneficial Use Of Residential Septage By Land Application [PAG-09] Until New General Permit Is Finalized
- Read each notice for all the details and a contact person to answer questions.
- -- DEP published notice in the November 16 PA Bulletin announcing the availability of the Safe Drinking Water technical guidance to comply with the federal Capability Enhancement Strategy.
- -- The Fish & Boat Commission published notices in the November 16 PA Bulletin inviting comments on--
- -- Proposed Additions to list of Wild Trout Streams
- -- Proposed Changes to list of Class A Wild Trout Waters
- -- The Department of Agriculture published notice in the November 16 PA Bulletin announcing it is now accepting applications for the Veteran Mini-Grant Program to help veterans entering or expanding farm operations. Deadline December 20.
- -- DEP published notice in the November 16 PA Bulletin inviting comments on a Chapter 105 Water Obstruction and Encroachment permit application covering activities related to the restoration of Pursley Creek damaged by longwall coal mining in Center Township, Greene County. (PA Bulletin, page 7532) Read more here.
- -- DEP published notice in the November 16 PA Bulletin announcing a December 17 hearing on the Chapter 105 Water Obstruction and Encroachment permit application for the Pocono Mountains Corporate Center North Warehouse located in Coolbaugh Township, Monroe County. (PA Bulletin, page 7532) Read more here.
- -- DEP published notice in the November 16 PA Bulletin announcing a December 17 hearing on the renewal of a Title V Air Quality Permit for the Consol Pennsylvania Coal Company LLC Bailey Coal Mine Prep Plant located in Richhill Township, Greene County, and East Finley Township, Washington County. (PA Bulletin, page 7507) Read more here.
- -- DEP published notice in the November 16 PA Bulletin announcing it had approved a GP-11 Air Quality Permit for the Amazon Data Center in Salem Twp., Luzerne County covering the installation of 14 nonroad engines for no more than 12 months. Received October 10, Issued October 24, 2024. (PA Bulletin, page 7526)
PA Bulletin - November 16, 2024
Trump Taps Fossil Fuel Ally Lee Zeldin to Head EPA, Push “Anti-Environmental Agenda” | Democracy Now! (interview and transcript) Environmental defenders are raising alarm over Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, former New York Congressmember Lee Zeldin, who has a history of opposing critical environmental protections and clean energy job investments. Zeldin’s nomination comes as Trump is reportedly discussing moving the EPAheadquarters outside of Washington, D.C., which could lead to an exodus of staff and expertise from the agency. “I really don’t think this is about government efficiency. I think this is about terrorizing the career staff,” says Judith Enck, who served as a regional administrator of the EPA in the Obama administration. This is a rush transcript. Copy may not be in its final form.
- AMY GOODMAN: As Donald Trump quickly moves to name his Cabinet, we turn now to look at his pick to head the Environmental Protection Agency, former New York Congressmember Lee Zeldin. The Long Island Republican served four terms in the House, where he earned a score of just 14 out of 100 from the League of Conservation Voters, after consistently voting against critical environmental protections and clean energy job investments. Zeldin’s nomination came after The New York Times reported Trump’s transition team is discussing moving the EPA headquarters outside D.C. Nate James of the American Federation of Government Employees told Politico many career EPAofficials would leave the agency if it moves, adding, “it could be advertised as a relocation, but really it would be decapitation.” We go now to Judith Enck, who served as EPA regional administrator under President Obama, now president of Beyond Plastics. We’re speaking to her outside Albany. Hi, Judith. Can you talk about, as both a former EPA administrator and a person from New York, where Lee Zeldin was a congressmember for years — talk about what a Zeldin heading the EPA looks like.
- JUDITH ENCK: Well, Lee Zeldin at the helm of EPA will be a wonderful tenure for fossil fuel companies, plastics companies, chemical companies. But it’s going to be really bad for people who want to breathe clean air, drink water that doesn’t have toxic chemicals or lead in it. And I’m particularly concerned about what a Zeldin EPA would mean for environmental justice communities, places like Cancer Alley in Louisiana, places like Appalachia and Texas, where there’s a concentration of petrochemical facilities, and today there is not enough environmental protections in place. I’m glad you mentioned Lee Zeldin’s tenure in Congress, where he had the not very impressive score of 14% voting record when he was in Congress. But let’s go back even further. Some people don’t know that Lee Zeldin was a state senator in Albany. And his record was so bad that a statewide environmental group gave him the distinguished 2011 Oil Slick Award. And he earned that Oil Slick Award because he introduced bills that would have, for instance, reduced funding for mass transit, provide dirty water in his Long Island district. And he just really stood out when he was in Albany, and then he took that environmental perspective to Washington, where his record was equally bad.
How Much Damage Can Lee Zeldin Do at the EPA? Donald Trump has named his pick to run the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin, who was the U.S. representative for New York’s 1st congressional district from 2015 to 2023. What does that tell us about what lies ahead? The first thing to know is that Zeldin is about as natural a pick for EPA head as Martha Stewart would be for machinist’s mate on a nuclear submarine.When Zeldin ran against Kathy Hochul for New York governor in 2022, he campaigned primarily on law and order, along with tax and regulation slashing, “ending all Covid-19 mandates,” and parents’ rights. He also has a long record opposing gay marriage and abortion. His environmental bona fides are mostly limited to having held an annual “Teach a Kid to Fish” day as a state senator and having been a member of minor congressional caucuses such as the Climate Solutions Caucus, the Congressional Estuary Caucus, and the somewhat questionable enterprise known as the Conservative Climate Caucus.According to one Long Island politics expert I spoke to, Zeldin probably joined these caucuses just to appear responsive to voter concerns, given that Long Island Sound pollution is a big issue in Zeldin’s former district. The memberships did not translate to pro-environmental votes: Zeldin voted to cut EPA funding, scrap its chemicals risk assessment program, and block the agency from taking action to restrict carbon pollution. He missed the 2017 vote on whether to defund the EPA’s criminal law enforcement program but voted to prohibit funds from being used for this purpose the prior year. The League of Conservation Voters gives Zeldin a lifetime score of 14 percent.Zeldin is getting this job not because he’s interested in or qualified on environmental issues but because he’s a loyalist: He was one of Trump’sstaunchest defenders in the first impeachment probe and one of four New York representatives to vote against certifying the 2020 election. At the Republican National Convention this summer, Zeldin sat in Trump’s own VIP box alongside members of Trump’s family and other cronies, only two seats away from the candidate.“We will restore US energy dominance, revitalize our auto industry to bring back American jobs, and make the US the global leader of AI,” Zeldin promised on Monday—as if he’d been named energy or commerce secretary instead of EPA administrator. “We will do so while protecting access to clean air and water,” he added.Unsurprisingly, environmental groups’ reactions to the pick have ranged from skeptical to outraged. On the one hand, it would be hard for Trump to do worse than his first EPA pick, Scott Pruitt, who was hired based on his experience relentlessly suing the EPA as Oklahoma’s attorney general. Pruitt resigned in 2018 amid an avalanche of ethics scandals that overshadowed even his abysmal policy proposals—likeblocking the EPA from using public health research to show that pollution hurts people, repealing the Clean Power Plan, loosening fuel emissions standards, and much more. And Andrew Wheeler, who took over after Pruitt’s departure, was a former coal lobbyist.On the other hand, the installation of a diehard Trump loyalist with little apparent agenda of his own suggests that the EPA is about to do precisely what Trump and his allies have been unusually explicit this time in promising it will do: please oil executives and, in former Interior Secretary David Bernhardt’s words, “rescind every one of Joe Biden’s industry-killing, job-killing, pro-China and anti-American electricity regulations.” (Biden was distinctly anti-China, and the oil industry kind of liked him—to climate activists’ chagrin—but whatever.) That’s in addition to likely decimating EPA staff, which the Biden administration had worked hard to rebuild after the last exodus.
The Trump Government Wants to Axe EV Subsidies --The transition team appointed by president-elect Donald Trump has set its sights on the $7,500 EV tax incentive implemented by the Biden administration and plans to axe it as soon as possible, Reuters has reported, citing two unnamed sources. Trump has repeatedly showed an absence of soft spots for the EV industry and has signaled a radical change in the attitude of the federal government to that industry if he wins. Now that he has, the radical change will soon be underway. The EV incentive axing will be part of a broader tax reform, the Reuters report noted, adding that the move has been discussed by members of Trump’s transition team including Continental Resources CEO Harold Hamm and North Dakota Governor and new Interior Secretary Doug Burgum. Shares in EV makers dropped on the news, including Tesla’s, even though Tesla representatives have spoken in favor of the removal of the subsidy. That favor probably has to do with the fact that Tesla is a best-selling EV makers while the Big Auto carmakers are struggling to make a profit on their own electric vehicles. Indeed, per Reuters, Tesla representative said that the removal of the federal subsidy would destroy Big Auto giants. The removal of the federal tax incentive will likely deal the fatal blow to EV uptake in the United States after demand began to slow down organically amid increasingly complicated rules for carmakers that made fewer of their cars eligible for the incentive in the first place. The complications stemmed from an attempt by the Biden administration to reduce reliance on foreign component suppliers—read China—obliging carmakers to source their batteries locally in order for their EVs to qualify for the incentives. These complications added to already existing problems such as lack of enough chargers and prices, which even with incentives are above those for internal combustion engine cars.
Trump Team To Nuke EV Tax Credit As Musk's Price-War Endgame Looms -The final chapter of the electric vehicle price war, sparked by Tesla's Elon Musk, hinges on President-elect Donald Trump's plan to eliminate the $7,500 consumer tax credit. Sources with direct knowledge told Reuters that the Trump team has discussed ending the EV tax credit as part of broader tax reform legislation.Sources indicated that Tesla - the largest EV automaker in the US and the only one not reliant on EV credits for survival - told the Trump transition committee that it fully supports the federal government ending the subsidy.Here's more from Reuters:Repealing the subsidy, which has been a signature measure of President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), is being discussed in meetings by an energy-policy transition team led by billionaire oilman Harold Hamm, founder of Continental Resources, and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, the two sources said.The group has had several meetings since Trump's Nov. 5 election victory, including some at his Florida Mar-a-Lago club, where Tesla chief executive Elon Musk has also spent considerable time since the election. In mid-July, Trump stated at a campaign rally that he would "end the Electric Vehicle Mandate on Day One — thereby saving the US auto industry from complete obliteration, and saving US customers thousands of dollars per car." On X, around that time, Musk explained to the Whole Mars Catalog why repealing the tax credit would only benefit Tesla: In October, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing all automotive brands besides Tesla, penned a letter expressing to lawmakers in Congress how crucial the EV tax credit is in "cementing the US as a global leader in the future of automotive technology and manufacturing." In the markets, Rivian shares tumbled by 10% in the early afternoon, while Tesla shares fell by 3.5%.
Michigan House OKs tax breaks to lure Google, Microsoft data server farms — Michigan is one step closer to offering tens of millions of dollars in tax breaks for tech companies to build large server farms in Michigan, following a Wednesday vote by a divided state House.The legislation, SB 4906, is part of a two-bill package to exempt large data centers from sales and use taxes on their equipment through at least 2050. The bill hopes to lure investment from tech giants like Microsoft and Google amid a rush to build facilities to power artificial intelligence and provide cloud storage for computers and phones. But the centers typically use lots of energy and don’t provide many jobs, raising concerns from environmentalists and others. The legislation passed 64-45 after several lawmakers who previously had opposed the legislation voted for it. The package now returns to the Senate, which approved an earlier version but must agree to new amendments.“What we saw is the coalition that's existed between the parties, that's pro-economic development, coming together on this,” said the bill’s chief sponsor, Joey Andrews, D-St. Joseph. Other bills approved Wednesday would create a new research and development tax credit for Michigan businesses. The credit is expected to cost the state roughly $100 million a year in taxes.An analysis by the Senate Fiscal Agency estimated the proposed data center tax breaks could reduce state and local tax revenue by more than $90 million through 2065.Proponents contend the centers will create jobs, tax money and local revenue from electricity and water sales. In order to qualify for the tax break, each data center operator would be required to invest at least $250 million and create 30 jobs paying 150% of local median wage.“You think about the number of places around the state that are looking for a new lease on life, that used to be manufacturing centers and now aren't,” the bill’s chief sponsor, Andrews told Bridge in June. “This is an opportunity for them.”Environmentalists call the breaks unnecessary corporate giveaways that threaten to undo Michigan’s climate progress and inflate energy costs.“After losing an election in which the cost of living played a central role, the priority of Democratic leadership in Michigan was to push through a bill to override 28 of their own caucus members voting no, that will raise regular Michiganders’ utility bills,” said Christy McGillivray, the Michigan Sierra Club’s political and legislative director.Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has not weighed in publicly on the bills, but both DTE Energy CEO Jerry Norcia and environmental opponents like McGillivrayhave said she is a behind-the-scenes supporter.
Biden administration outlines plan to triple U.S. nuclear capacity -The Biden administration on Tuesday released a roadmap for plans to triple U.S. nuclear capacity by the middle of the century. The plan sets a goal of 200 gigawatts of new capacity by 2050, more than three times the 2020 capacity. This will require the development of multiple new power sources, including large and small modular plants, as well as upgrades to existing reactors and restarting retired ones. This includes adding 35 gigawatts of new capacity by 2035 and a goal of 15 gigawatts per year by 2040. “Ramping sustained production to about 15 [gigawatts] annually by 2040 will be important to serve both our domestic 2050 deployment goals and project deployments around the globe, making more U.S. nuclear products and services available for export,” the administration’s road map states. “This will add hundreds of thousands of good-paying construction and operation jobs across the United States that would be sustained for decades. Achieving this production rate will require an expanded workforce, robust supply chains for fuel and components, and long-term solutions for managing spent fuel.” The strategy outlined is part of a concerted push by the Biden administration to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, a goal the incoming Trump administration is likely to abandon. However, increased deployment of nuclear power has bipartisan congressional support and President-elect Trump has signaled support as well, calling for the construction of new nuclear reactors during his 2024 campaign. The framework relies on existing federal authorities but would require new funding, leaving nuclear power’s bipartisan supporters in Congress to fill the gap by allocating that money. It comes months after the announcement that Pennsylvania will restart one of the reactors at Three Mile Island, the site of a near meltdown in the 1970s, to power Microsoft data centers. Both hard-line conservative Rep. Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who represents the area, and his 2024 Democratic opponent, Janelle Stelson, backed the restart.
Tell the Commission: Leave Valley Run Wildlife Area alone! – Save Ohio Parks -- Last year the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission approved three different nominations of Valley Run Wildlife Area for fracking. Encino Acquisitions Partners — bankrolled by the Canadian Pension Plan — got the bids to do all this fracking. Now an unnamed oil and gas company has nominated Valley Run Wildlife Area again for fracking — and yet again we need to tell the commission to DENY this nomination.Valley Run is a 304-acre wildlife area in Carroll County, named for the stream that runs through it. Originally part of the adjacent Harrison Hills Campground, it was slated to be developed as campsites before the Ohio Department of Natural Resources purchased it from the county in 2000.Valley Run is now a wooded wildlife area, home to diverse species such as turkeys, grouse, squirrels, deer, rabbit, box turtles, and amphibians. Songbirds include kingfishers, wood ducks, woodpeckers, flycatchers, catbirds, orioles, and red-tailed hawks. Former logging roads provide excellent hiking and wildlife viewing.Unfortunately, the Oil and Gas Land Management Commission has already approved Encino to frack across almost all of Valley Run’s 304 acres. The latest nomination is for the last 3.6 acres.Tell the Commission: Enough fracking of Valley Run! Please visit the Nomination Comment Form, choose Nomination #24-DNR-0010, and submit your comment.
EOG Grows Utica Drilling in 2025 – Will Operate 2 Rigs -- EOG Resources, one of the largest oil and gas drillers in the U.S. (with international operations in Trinidad and China), owns nearly a half million acres of leases in the Ohio Utica. EOG calls its position the “Ohio Utica combo play” and now considers it one of the company’s “premium plays.” EOG concentrates on oil drilling in the Utica. The company experimented with the Utica this year, however, the time for experimenting is coming to a close. During the company’s third quarter update last Friday, COO Jeff Leitzell said EOG will be “up to two full rigs and one full frac fleet by year-end” next year.
EOG Greenlights Second Rig to Ohio Utica Oil Wildcatting | Hart Energy - EOG Resources has greenlit its Utica oil wildcatting in eastern Ohio to two rigs and one full-time frac spread as finding and development (F&D) costs fall to between $6/boe and $8/boe.The E&P brought nine more Utica wells on in third-quarter 2024, taking its new-drill dataset in the play to 25 wells to accompany vertical and horizontal control from past drillers’ well logs. “Oil and [natural gas] liquids performance continues to meet or exceed expectations, demonstrating the premium quality of this play,” Jeff Leitzell, EOG COO, told investors in a Nov. 8 call. EOG reported in May that the Utica’s oil results “compete with the best plays in America—very comparable to the Permian on a production-per-foot basis, both in oil and equivalent.”In addition to the Permian, EOG operates in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Powder River Basin and other Lower 48 plays.Days to D&C wells in the Utica have been falling—by 29% to drill and by 13% to complete—the operator reported in the call this month.It made 2 miles of lateral in one day in a recent well, Leitzell said. It also completed 1,900 ft of lateral in one day, EOG reported.The D&C pricetag in a few years will average less than $650 per treated lateral foot, he added.To date, EOG has done its delineation with one rig and a part-time frac spread. “We're looking at about a 50% increase in activity. We'll be up to two full rigs and one full frac fleet by year-end,” Leitzell said.The new wells include the single Whitacre that had a 30-day IP of 1,975 boe/d, 55% oil and 80% liquids. (Note: All IP figures from EOG on its Utica wells normalizes lateral length to three miles.)It was made near two multi-well pads—Timberwolf and Shadow—on the northern end of the roughly 140-mile north-south stretch of volatile oil fairway.The four-well Timberwolf IP’ed in August of 2023 at 1,000-ft spacing with 2,150 boe/d, 55% oil and 85% liquids. Through the second quarter of this year, it has produced 919,551 bbl of oil, according to Ohio Department of Natural Resources (DNR) data.The five-well Shadow tested this past June at 700-ft spacing with 2,125 boe/d, 50% oil and 80% liquids. In its first days online, it made 72,022 bbl of oil through June 30, according to the DNR.Also new is the four-well Wolverine package at 800-ft spacing in the central part of the fairway. These IP’ed an average of 2,950 boe/d, 55% oil and 75% liquids in September.The spacing test is near the three-well Xavier pad that IP’ed at 800-ft spacing in October of 2023 with 3,250 boe/d, 55% oil and 75% liquids. The Xavier wells produced 822,009 bbl of oil through June 30, according to the DNR.At the southern end of the oil fairway, the four-well Sable at 800-ft spacing came on in July with 1,425 boe/d, 65% oil and 85% liquids.It is near the four-well White Rhino that IP’ed this past spring from 1,000-ft spacing with 1,700 boe/d, 70% oil and 85% liquids. Through June 30, it produced 260,509 bbl of oil.
Ascent Resources 3Q – Continues Shifting Focus to More Oil & NGLs - Ascent Resources, founded as American Energy Partners by gas legend Aubrey McClendon, is a privately held company focusing 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and the 8th largest natural gas producer in the U.S. The company issued its third quarter 2024 update last week. The company produced 2,075 MMcfe/d (2.08 Bcfe/d), down 4% from 2,165 MMcfe/d (2.16 Bcfe/d) produced in 3Q23. Ascent pivoted to produce more liquids, including oil and NGLs, with an emphasis on producing more NGLs during 3Q24. According to the update, the company plans to continue its liquids focus in the fourth quarter.
34 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV Nov 4 – 10 --- Marcellus Drilling News -- For the week of Nov 4 – 10, permits issued in the Marcellus/Utica came roaring back with a total of 34 permits issued (up from 13 issued the prior week). There were some VERY interesting things to note about some of the permits issued. The Keystone State (PA) issued 16 new permits, with five going to Range Resources in Washington County. And that’s the first of three interesting things to note. All five Range permits were issued for Cecil Township, which recently passed a ban on new fracking via a 2,500-foot setback regulation (see Cecil Twp Supervisors Pull the Trigger on Frack Ban Via Setbacks). ASCENT RESOURCES | BEAVER COUNTY | BELMONT COUNTY | BRADFORD COUNTY | CHESAPEAKE ENERGY | COTERRA ENERGY (CABOT O&G) | ENCINO ENERGY | EQT CORP | GREENE COUNTY (PA) | HG ENERGY | LEWIS COUNTY | MONROE COUNTY | PENNENERGY RESOURCES | RANGE RESOURCES CORP | SUSQUEHANNA COUNTY | TUSCARAWAS COUNTY | WASHINGTON COUNTY
Utility Dive: North American Electric Reliability Corp: Natural Gas Electric Generation Is Threatened This Winter By Ongoing Concerns About Gas Production, Delivery In Extreme Weather Conditions - On November 15, Utility Dive reported the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said in its Annual Winter Reliability Assessment natural gas electric generation “is threatened this winter by ongoing concerns with natural gas production and delivery in extreme conditions and a potential regional pipeline capacity issue in the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.” NERC continued, “While the natural gas industry is making progress on commercial practices and voluntary commitments to improve winter preparedness, supplies to electric generators remain vulnerable in extreme cold temperatures in many parts of North America, placing electric reliability at risk. “As winter approaches, NERC encourages all entities across the gas-electric value chain—from production to the burner tip and the busbar—to take all necessary actions to prepare for extreme cold, keep natural gas flowing, and keep the lights and furnaces on.” “During recent extreme winter weather events [winter storms Elliott and Uri], each of these areas has experienced or come dangerously close to a shortfall in electricity supply for which fuel availability was a significant factor. “Because foreseeable extreme cold temperatures have the potential to push the existing natural gas supply infrastructure to maximum capacity again this winter, a shutdown of in-service regional natural gas facilities would endanger grid reliability.” NERC said, “The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates a colder winter than last year’s relatively mild winter season, leading to a projection that U.S. households that use natural gas to heat their homes will consume 5% more than last winter. “In addition, natural gas consumption in the power sector has seen record highs this year. “The increased consumption of natural gas for power generation combined with the anticipated year-on-year increase in consumption of natural gas for home heating, particularly in the Midwest, comes as lower natural gas prices have had a chilling effect on natural gas production. “The result of higher consumption and lower production is inventory that is settling closer to average volumes after several years of above-average natural gas stockpiles.” NERC said, “More generally, concerns over natural gas production issues during cold weather events remain in the Eastern and Western Interconnections. “As one reporting assessment area has noted, there is (outside of Texas) little to no information to indicate that upstream gas producers, gatherers, and processors have improved winterization of their operations.” NERC Conclusion: NERC’s winter reliability assessment concluded that all areas of the bulk power system have adequate resources for normal winter peak-load conditions but “more extreme winter conditions extending over a wide area could result in electricity supply and energy shortfalls.” Click Here for a copy of the NERC Winter Reliability Assessment.
Williams Says NatGas Demand Sky High, Full Roster of Pipe Projects -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Williams delivered its third quarter update last week. The company is working overtime to expand its extensive network of natural gas pipelines. Quick fact: Did you know that Williams’ pipeline network handles about one-third of U.S. natural gas? Massive! And it’s only going to grow, according to CEO Alan Armstrong, who said: “Not only do we have a clear line of sight to a full roster of projects that are in execution, but we continue to commercialize vital high return projects across our footprint.” Much of the expansion will come in the Marcellus/Utica region and regions adjacent to ours fed by our molecules.
Kentucky Utility Plans to Build 4 New Gas-Fired Power Plants -- Marcellus Drilling News -- Yesterday, the East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), a nonprofit power generation and transmission electric utility with headquarters in Winchester, Kentucky, announced plans to build two new natural gas-fired power plants and convert its two existing coal-fired power plants to burn natural gas. That’s four new gas-fired power plants coming to two different counties, one county in the northern part of the state, the other in the southern part. While no mention was made of the source of gas to be used, it’s a safe bet the molecules will come from the Marcellus/Utica
Court Rescinds Approval of WNY Gas-Fired Plant Sale to Bitcoin Co.-- Marcellus Drilling News -- In September 2022, the New York Public Service Commission (PSC), which oversees and regulates public utilities in the state, approved the takeover of the Fortistar gas-fired power plant in North Tonawanda, NY, a town close to Niagara Falls, by Canadian crypto mining company Digihost. In December 2022, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) offered its blessing too. All of which prompted the radicals of Earthjustice, representing two other disgusting radical groups—the Sierra Club and Clean Air Coalition of Western New York—to sue (see Green Radicals Sue NYS for Approving Niagara Falls Bitcoin Plant). Fortunately, the lawsuit didn’t stop the transfer, which happened in early 2023 (see Canadian Bitcoin Operator Completes Purchase of WNY Gas-Fired Plant). However, Earthjustice continued to pursue its lawsuit and yesterday got a ruling from a state court to nullify the PSC’s original approval of the sale to Digihost.
Venture Global Seeks Full Gator Express Pipe In-Service as IPO Rumors Swirl — Venture Global LNG Inc. could be preparing to launch an initial public offering (IPO) in the coming days as it pushes forward with commissioning of its Plaquemines project. Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) chart showing U.S. LNG export facilities' feed gas intake for Nov. 14. Bloomberg reported the Virginia-based LNG export developer is preparing to launch an IPO that could raise $3 billion, according to confidential sources. The company was launched in 2013 by co-founders Mike Sabel and Bob Pender. Its Calcasieu Pass LNG facility in Louisiana began producing volumes in 2022. In the meantime, Venture Global is awaiting approval from FERC to introduce feed gas to the first block of liquefaction units at its Plaquemines LNG facility after filing a request earlier in the week. Related Tags
NextDecade Juggles Rio Grande LNG Construction, Train 4 Contracts as Appeals Case Continues -- NextDecade Corp. is progressing work on its LNG export project in Texas and pursuing customers for its expansions while it awaits federal court decisions. As part of a third quarter business update, the Houston-based company disclosed it made progress on the 17.6 million tons/year (Mt/y) first phase of the Rio Grande LNG project during the quarter. NextDecade has been facing regulatory uncertainty since August, when the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia (DC) Circuit ordered FERC’s authorization of several Texas projects to be vacated and remanded. CEO Matt Schatzman said its construction partner Bechtel Corp. has been pushing ahead with construction and foundational work at the Brownsville, TX, site while NextDecade fights to appeal the decision.
Crown LNG rushing to develop and start building US LNG plant while Trump in office -Norwegian headquartered Crown LNG is racing against time to develop and start construction of a LNG export plant in the U.S. before President-elect Donald Trump's second term ends in 2029, its CEO Swapan Kataria said. "We were sincerely hoping that he would be there to support the industry because certainly the old administration was against it, quite simply," said Kataria on Tuesday in an interview with Reuters. Trump has promised to reduce regulations to make it easier for LNG projects to be approved. The U.S. is already the world's largest exporter of the super-chilled gas and there are several projects under construction and in the development stage. Crown LNG is hoping to build a 9-MMtpy LNG facility offshore Texas from which it hopes to then export the gas to its proposed regasification terminals in India, Vietnam and Scotland, all of which are still in various stages of development. The company has ruled out locating the plant in Louisiana because it worries about accessing natural gas pipelines over a 25- to 40-year period, and wants to build offshore because it feels the approval process is quicker than on land and will have to meet fewer demands than those of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Kataria said. Crown LNG believes the Maritime Administration (MARAD) is a less challenging regulatory environment that favors getting projects done. "MARAD has a quicker turnaround than the FERC. FERC has a lot more expensive process as opposed to MARAD," Kataria said. Crown is proposing to use a bottom-fixed, gravity-based structure for its LNG plant to lower costs and reduce its environmental footprint. The company's CEO said the strategy of developing its regasification terminals and selling to smaller end users, like power plants and fertilizer producers, means it can get many A-grade counterparties to help raise the debt required for plant construction. Crown is also open to buying LNG from the U.S. for its proposed 7.5 MMtpy terminal in India but said U.S. companies must know there is a cap on the price Indian buyers can pay and unless they are prepared to work a formula that recognizes that cap, Indian buyers will continue to purchase during downcycles, Kataria said.
US natgas prices soar 9% to 5-week high on output drop, jump in demand (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures soared about 9% to a five-week high on Monday on a drop in daily output over the past few days, forecasts for much cooler weather and more heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and a possible speculative short squeeze. The heating demand should cause utilities to start pulling gas out of storage in late November. There is currently about 6% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Analysts projected utilities added more gas than normal into storage last week for a fourth week in a row for the first time since October 2022. Prior to the last few weeks, storage injections had been smaller than usual for 14 weeks in a row because many producers have reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March. Prices have remained relatively low since then, dropping to a 23-year low for the month of October. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 25.1 cents, or 9.4%, to settle at $2.920 per million British thermal units, their highest close since Oct. 3. The tremendous gain, which was the biggest daily percentage increase since prices soared 21% on Oct. 30, cut the premium of futures for January over December to just 21 cents per mmBtu, the lowest since November 2022. The jump in gas prices also boosted stock prices for several U.S. gas producers, including a 7% increase for Antero Resources AR.N, a 6% increase for Comstock Resources and a 5% increase for EQT. Even though gas futures gained about 18% over the prior three weeks, speculators boosted their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges for a second week in a row last week to their highest since April, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report. "The weekend (weather) shift could catch aggressive speculator shorts off-guard, and, if momentum can be sustained, potentially trigger a near-term short squeeze to drive NYMEX futures steeply higher first," analysts at energy consulting firm EBW Analytics said in a note. In the spot market, gas prices plunged to a 25-year low at the Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana and dropped into negative territory for a record 47th time at the Waha hub in West Texas. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states slid to 100.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output over the past three days fell by 2.3 bcfd to a preliminary nine-month low of 98.2 bcfd on Monday. Some of that output drop was due to curtailments in the Gulf of Mexico for Hurricane Rafael, which has since dissipated. Meteorologists projected the weather in the Lower 48 states will switch from warmer than normal from now through Nov. 20 to near normal from Nov. 21-26. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.3 bcfd this week to 110.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
NatGas Prices Near Breakout Level Ahead Of Cold Blob Invasion - US natural gas futures are up 2.5% in late afternoon trading, reaching $2.98 per mmBtu, driven by new forecasts showing a shift in cold weather from the West Coast to the East next week. This suggests households may crank up their thermostats for the first time this season as a proper chill sets in. Private weather forecaster BAMWX published a new mid-day GEFS run for late November that shows "massive cold trends" for the eastern half of the US. "The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead," BAMWX wrote on X, adding, "Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential." Massive colder trends on the mid-day GEFS run for late November. The pattern supports the cold stretch and we have a better tap to cold air ahead. Could get pretty interesting for a time late month for wintry potential.#Energy #NatGas #OOTT $ng $ung pic.twitter.com/UpJ5pT44t8— BAM Weather (BAMWX) (@bamwxcom) November 13, 2024Meteorologist Ryan Kane wrote on X, "It's safe to say next weeks ULL will be the big pattern changing system (Nov 20-23rd). Nice -EPO, +PNA & -NAO will all work to drive cold into the eastern half of CONUS.""Snow potential should come Thanksgiving week as the -NAO attempts to break down as the cold air is established," Kane noted. Maybe a cold blast in the Northeast and other parts of the US will be the catalyst to push NatGas futures past the $3 mark, which has served as strong resistance for nearly two years.
US natgas prices climb 3% to 5-month high with cold weather coming in late November (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a five-month high on Wednesday on forecasts for the weather to turn seasonally cold in late November, which should force utilities to start pulling gas from storage to meet rising heating demand. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.6 cents, or 2.6%, to settle at $2.983 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 12. Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the mild week ended Nov. 8, but were so far uncertain whether they would add or pull gas during the week ended Nov. 15 since supply and demand were very close. About 6% more gas is in storage than normal for this time of year. After weeks of mild weather, analysts said the expected build during the week ended Nov. 8 would be the first time utilities added more gas to storage than usual for four weeks in a row since October 2022. Prior to the last few weeks, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March. Prices have remained relatively soft since then, dropping to a 23-year low in October. In the spot market, pipeline constraints caused next-day gas prices at the Waha hub in the Permian Shale in West Texas to remain in negative territory for a record 48th time this year. Analysts have said that Waha prices traded in negative territory on eight of the past nine days due in part to pipeline constraints caused by maintenance on Kinder Morgan's KMI.N Permian Highway gas pipe in Texas, which the company has said it expected to mostly complete on Nov. 14. Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020 and once in 2023. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain warmer than normal through Nov. 20 before turning near normal from Nov. 21-28. With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.8 bcfd this week to 109.3 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was below LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants edged up to an average of 13.2 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Gas prices traded around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia
U.S. natgas flows to LNG export plants on track to hit 9-month high -- The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants was on track to rise to a nine-month high on Thursday as feedgas to a few plants hit multi-week highs, according to data from financial firm LSEG. The energy market cares about feedgas flows to U.S. LNG plants because exports have been the gas industry's biggest source of demand growth in recent years. The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices, feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions, and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. U.S. LNG feedgas was on track to rise from 14.0 Bft3d on Wednesday to a nine-month high of 14.4 Bft3d on Thursday. One Bft3 can supply about 5 MM U.S. homes for a day. That increase in gas flows was due to rising feedgas at several plants. Flows to Venture Global LNG's 1.6-Bft3d Calcasieu Pass in Louisiana were on track to rise to a four-month high of 1.5 Bft3d on Thursday. Flows to Cameron LNG's 2-Bft3d Cameron plant in Louisiana were on track to rise to a four-week high of 2.3 Bft3d on Thursday. Flows to Cheniere Energy's 4.5-Bft3d Sabine Pass in Louisiana were on track to rise to a three-week high of 4.9 Bft3d on Thursday. Sabine is the biggest U.S. LNG export plant. LNG export plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG because they use some of that fuel to run liquefaction and other equipment. In addition to the operating export plants, the gas market is waiting for two new facilities under construction to enter service in test mode before the end of the year - the first 1.8-Bft3d phase of Venture Global's Plaquemines in Louisiana and the 1.5-Bft3d Stage 3 expansion at Cheniere's Corpus Christi in Texas. Plaquemines has been pulling in small amounts of pipeline gas in test mode every day since mid-September, according to LSEG data. Many analysts expect the plant to start pulling in more gas in coming days or weeks to test the plant's liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG.
US natgas prices edge up 1% on rising LNG feedgas, spike in European prices (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Friday due to an increase in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to a 10-month high and the recent spike in gas prices in Europe to an 11-month high. Capping that price increase was a risein daily output and forecasts for less cold weather in late November than previously expected, whichshould reduce heating demand and allow utilities to continue injecting more gas into storage for another week. Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.8 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $2.823 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). For the week, the front-month was up about 6%, putting it upfor a fourth week in a row for the first time since September. During those four weeks, the contract has gained about 25%. Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the mild week ended Nov. 15. If correct, that would be the first time inventories rose by more than usual for five weeks in a row since October 2022. There was currently about 7% more gas is in storage than normal for this time of year. Prior to the last moth or so, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained relatively soft since then. SUPPLY AND DEMAND Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, output rose by about 2.7 bcfd over the prior four days to 101.2 bcfd on Thursday, up from a nine-month low of 98.4 bcfd on Nov. 10. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 30 except for some near normal days from Nov. 21-24. But with seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.1 bcfd this week to 109.1 bcfd next week and 117.7 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next were lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants edged up to an average of 13.3 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise to a 10-month high of 14.4 bcfd on Friday with flows to a few plants hitting multi-week highs in recent days. Gas prices traded near an 11-month high of around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe on supply concerns afterRussia told Austria it would suspend gas deliveries from Saturday.NG/EU
EPA rule imposes fee for excess methane emissions in oil, gas industry --The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a final rule Tuesday that implements a charge for oil and gas companies that release too much of the planet-warming gas methane.The fee was passed as part of 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ climate, tax and health care bill. Methane is a planet-warming pollutant that is about 28 times as powerful as carbon dioxide. Oil and gas production is one major source of methane emissions, because methane — the main component of natural gas — is sometimes released or burned during that process. Under the 2022 law, companies that emit methane at levels equivalent to 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide each year must pay for their excess emissions. That fee is $900 per metric ton this year, $1,200 for emissions next year and $1,500 for emissions the following year.Much of this is set out in the law, and the EPA’s rule details how the charge will be implemented. The EPA estimates the program will prevent a total of 1.2 million metric tons of methane from entering the atmosphere, with climate gains equivalent to taking nearly 8 million gas-powered cars off the road for a year. It will cost the industry $2.2 billion to comply, the agency estimates.This program could be scrapped by Congress in the months ahead. It was part of a law that passed by a process called budget reconciliation, which allows certain legislation to evade the filibuster — only requiring 50 votes in the Senate. It passed the House and Senate without a single Republican vote.Now that the GOP has secured a trifecta, Republicans could pursue their own reconciliation bill that eliminates the program. Facilities in compliance with the recently finalized Clean Air Act standards for oil and gas operations would be exempt from the charge after certain criteria set by Congress are met.
Oil and gas jobs decline amid record-breaking production - The United States is pumping out more oil and gas than any country in history. But even as production soars, oil field employment keeps shrinking. The decadelong decline isn’t driven by climate policy or the rise in clean energy. Instead, it’s the result of boom-and-bust cycles — and the fossil fuel industry’s relentless push for efficiency. “You just need fewer workers to produce more oil,” said Greg Upton, executive director of Louisiana State University’s Center for Energy Studies. “When you need less workers, that’s a sign of growth. On the other hand, these are real people losing their jobs.” Advertisement Oil production is up 5 percent since 2019, the last peak before the pandemic. The industry set a new record for crude production last week, according to data released Wednesday by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, pumping an average of 13.4 million barrels a day. But employment among the people who find that oil and pull it out of the ground is down nearly 20 percent from prepandemic levels. Oil and gas production still supports hundreds of thousands of jobs in the United States, from the rig floor to office suites in Houston skyscrapers. Even at the low end, many pay enough to offer middle-class incomes to people without college degrees. And many of the jobs supported by oil and gas drilling are also far from the oil field — such as the union pipefitters who work in refineries and the workers at nearby restaurants. The Marcellus Shale Coalition trade group says in Pennsylvania the industry supports 10 times the jobs that drilling wells create directly. But declining oil field employment shows that the transition away from fossil fuel jobs is already happening without drilling bans or comprehensive federal climate regulation.
Coterra to Acquire Permian Assets from Franklin, Avant for $3.95B -Coterra Energy Inc. is acquiring Permian Basin assets from Franklin Mountain Energy and Avant Natural Resources through two separate definitive agreements worth $3.95 billion, Coterra announced early Nov. 13.The company is acquiring 400 to 550 net Permian Basin locations primarily targeting the Bone Spring, Harkey, Avalon and Lower Wolfcamp/Penn Shale. The deals will add 49,000 net acres in Lea County, New Mexico, which are contiguous with its northern Delaware Basin acreage, to create an 83,000-acre portfolio in the Delaware.Coterra is funding the deals with $2.95 billion in cash and $1 billion in common stock, or approximately 40.9 million shares.The announcement is a long-awaited move by Coterra to grow dramatically in the Permian, moving on large portions in New Mexico’s Delaware Basin. Franklin Mountain, in particular, was seen as a likely takeover target in recent months.
Plains All American agrees to pay about $73 million to settle California oil spill lawsuit – (Reuters) – Plains All American Pipeline has agreed to pay $72.5 million to settle a lawsuit over the 2015 Refugio Beach oil spill in Santa Barbara, a filing showed on Tuesday. The spill occurred after a pipeline, which ran across California’s coastline, ruptured and spilled an estimated 126,000 gallons of oil into the ocean and on the beaches. In 2020, the California State Lands Commission and insurance firm Aspen American Insurance had sued Plains All American – the operator of the failed pipeline – alleging negligence, willful misconduct, and interference with prospective economic advantage. The state of California will receive $50.5 million from the settlement, while Aspen will get $22 million. Plains All American and Aspen Insurance did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment. “This settlement … holds the operator accountable and provides appropriate compensation to the state for the fiscal damages caused by this spill,” Joe Stephenshaw, state lands commissioner and California Department of Finance director, said in a statement.
Trump picks fracking executive Chris Wright as DOE secretary - President-elect Donald Trump named oil and gas executive Chris Wright as his choice to lead the Department of Energy on Saturday.In a statement, Trump said Wright would also be part of a new Council of National Energy.“Chris was one of the pioneers who helped launch the American Shale Revolution that fueled American Energy Independence, and transformed the Global Energy Markets and Geopolitics,” the statement said. Wright is a Trump donor and CEO of the Denver-based energy technology company Liberty Energy, which provides hydraulic fracturing services throughout the West. If confirmed, Wright will be tasked with approving billions of dollars for renewable energy, carbon capture, gas, direct air capture and hydrogen projects.
North Dakota seeks to intervene in latest Dakota Access Pipeline lawsuit • The state of North Dakota has asked to become a defendant in the Standing Rock Sioux Tribe’s new lawsuit against the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers seeking to shut down the Dakota Access Pipeline. The tribe’s complaint, filed last month, accuses the Army Corps of violating federal law by allowing the pipeline to operate without an easement, adequate environmental study or proper emergency spill response plans, among other violations. North Dakota in a memo filed last week argued that closing the pipeline, often referred to as DAPL, would cost the state government hundreds of millions of dollars, put thousands of jobs in jeopardy and disrupt regional supply chains. North Dakota also argues that a federal court order shuttering DAPL could infringe upon the state’s right to regulate its own land and resources. The Army Corps of Engineers has jurisdiction over a section of the pipeline that passes under Lake Oahe, a reservoir on the Missouri River, about a half-mile upstream from the Standing Rock Reservation. Standing Rock opposes the pipeline over concerns that it violates the tribe’s sovereignty, has disrupted sacred cultural sites and endangers the tribe’s water supply. If a judge were to grant Standing Rock’s request to shutter DAPL, the North Dakota state government would lose out on a projected $900 million in revenue in the first 12 months, Office of Budget and Management Director Susan Sisk said in a statement filed in court. The state relies on energy taxes to fund a significant portion of its operations, Sisk wrote. She noted more than 10% of North Dakota’s annual general fund revenue comes from oil and gas taxes, and nearly 60% of the state’s tax and fee revenue comes from oil and gas extraction and production. DAPL is a big piece of that equation, according to Sisk. She wrote that half of the crude oil produced in North Dakota is transported through the pipeline. If the pipeline went away, that oil could also be transported by rail or truck, but existing infrastructure wouldn’t be able to move it at the same pace as DAPL, she added. State officials say that energy workers would also be at risk. Shutting down DAPL would cause North Dakota to temporarily lose roughly 8,450 to 9,300 jobs, and permanently lose 1,700 to 2,200 jobs, Department of Mineral Resources Director Nathan Anderson wrote in court records filed by the state.
Gas flares contribute to 2 western North Dakota wildfires, reports say • Heat from natural gas flares combined with high winds and dry vegetation caused two of the October wildfires in western North Dakota, according to the state fire marshal. Investigations into an Oct. 5 fire near Keene and a fire the same day near New Town found that both originated with flares at oil and gas wells next to agricultural land with stubble or dry grass, according to investigative reports. The McKenzie County fires occurred in the hours before state regulators asked operators to voluntarily shut down oil and gas wells in areas with high fire danger, according to the investigative reports and an interview with Department of Mineral Resources Director Nathan Anderson. The North Dakota State Fire Marshal is finalizing investigative reports on wildfires in Williams County, including one that claimed two lives and injured six. The U.S. Forest Service is investigating the Elkhorn Fire in McKenzie County and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms is investigating the Bear Den Fire on the Fort Berthold Reservation. A total of 190 fires occurred in North Dakota in October, burning 126,273 acres, according to the state Department of Emergency Services. Damage estimates are still being compiled, but so far rural electric cooperatives report an estimated $7.7 million in damages, said Department of Emergency Services spokeswoman Alison Vetter. That would not include losses to farmers and ranchers. McKenzie County fire crews received a report shortly after 3 p.m. Oct. 5 of a rapidly spreading fire near Keene. It ultimately burned 7,000 acres. About 5:30 p.m. that day, New Town fire crews were dispatched to another wildfire that resulted in damage to more than 2,000 acres. Both occurred near oil sites and the fires are referred to in investigative reports as the Midnight Run fire and the Dinwoodie fire – named after the oil wells. Homes near both fires were evacuated as a precaution. No structures were lost and no injuries were reported. To evaluate the cause of the fires, investigators examined the scene, interviewed witnesses and reviewed data including weather information. Wind gusts in the region were as high as 60-70 mph at times. The North Dakota State Fire Marshal classified both fires as accidental. The reports rule out other causes and conclude that the high winds influenced the ignition and the spread of the fire. The reports note the conclusions could change if additional information is provided. The New Town fire originated next to a Hess Corp. site with five oil and gas wells and a flare stack that a witness said was about 300 feet from the burned area, according to the report. Operators are required to keep flares lit at oil and gas wells to prevent venting of natural gas. If a well is shut in, there is no need for a flare. The report on the New Town fire said the normal temperature from the flare pilot ranges from 1,200-1,800 degrees Fahrenheit, according to information provided to investigators. A Hess Corp. representative told investigators the pilot temperature was slightly higher that day, the report says. It’s possible for pressure spikes to occur with a flare stack that cause hot oil or carbon particles to be dislodged. When investigators were on site on Oct. 9, the Hess flare stack had a sudden “burp,” causing the flare to get larger and black smoke to extend from the stack, investigators noted. A Hess representative told investigators that one pressure spike was recorded the day of the wildfire but said it should not have caused hot oil to dislodge, the report says. A Hess spokesperson said Wednesday the company was still reviewing the fire marshal’s report and had no immediate comment.
Exclusive: Harold Hamm's Top Oil, Gas Goals After Trump Victory | Hart Energy --When Harold Hamm talks U.S. energy, President-elect Donald Trump listens. Hamm, the founder and executive chairman of privately-held Continental Resources, ran point on drumming up oil and gas industry support and funding for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign. In an exclusive interview with Hart Energy, Hamm refused to take any credit for Trump’s election victory last week—but acknowledged the role he played in getting the U.S. energy industry to rally behind the former president. “Obviously it’s no secret that I helped gather the industry up, oil and gas producers and the entire industry,” Hamm said. “They got really broad coverage about the meeting at Mar-a-Lago with the president—[I] had dinner with him with the entire group.” But after Trump’s resounding victory at the ballot boxes last week—and with both houses of Congress potentially back under Republican control—Hamm expects to see results for the U.S. energy industry. From a “laundry list” of hundreds of items that need to be done, or undone, a handful stick out to Hamm.Impediments put in place by the Biden administration to slow or halt oil and gas leasing activity on federal lands or in the Gulf of Mexico should be removed, Hamm said.“The mineral wealth of the U.S. government is tremendous, but you have to develop that,” he said. “Certainly, Trump will do that. Our economy needs it, federal government needs it.”The Biden administration eventually resumed auctioning drilling leases on federal lands in 2022—when costs for fuel and power were skyrocketing—but with smaller acreage packages offered and higher royalties for producers.Offshore leasing has been limited to the central and western Gulf of Mexico in favor of the Biden administration’s lofty goal of expanding offshore wind power generation.But it’s not just upstream. The permitting process needs to be simplified and streamlined to build out pipelines, downstream facilities or even infrastructure like new housing, Hamm said.“Permitting affects everything,” he said. “You’ve got to turn that loose, and you just need some new people to do it.”The Biden administration also drew ire from the U.S. oil and gas industry earlier this year for “pausing” the issuance of LNG export licenses to non-free trade agreement countries.The administration said the pause would allow time for a study analyzing the impacts of U.S. LNG exports on the climate, the economy and national security.Industry executives and analysts say the pause has negatively impacted the nation’s reputation as a reliable exporter—at a time when countries like Qatar and Australia are actively expanding global LNG market share.Many oil and gas executives have lobbied for Trump to un-pause the LNG pause, Hamm included.“In the U.S. we certainly got a whole lot of natural gas,” Hamm said.Hamm also pushed back on the outgoing administration using federal agencies to stymie the oil and gas industry’s day-to-day business.The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) intervened in several large-scale upstream M&A transactions, including Exxon Mobil’s $60 billion acquisition of Permian Basin giant Pioneer Natural Resources, Chevron’s $55 billion acquisition ofHess Corp. and the merger between gas producers Chesapeake Energy andSouthwestern Energy.The FTC barred Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield and Hess CEO John Hess from serving on the Exxon and Chevron boards, respectively, alleging the executives worked to collude with the OPEC cartel to fix global commodity prices.The Biden administration also frequently tapped the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for matters related to power plant pollution, methane emissions from upstream production and vehicle tailpipe emissions standards.“They used every single agency as much as they could to deter the industry, delay the industry,” Hamm said, “and basically live up to their promise to get us off fossil fuels going forward.”
EIA expects decreasing refining capacity to slow the decline of US refining margins; India emerges as leading source of growth in oil consumption - The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects US refinery capacity to be 17.9 million barrels per day at the end of 2025, about 3% less than at the beginning of this year. LyondellBasel Industries plans to close its Houston Refinery in the first quarter of 2025, removing nearly 264,000 barrels per day of domestic refining capacity. Last month, Phillips 66 announced it will cease operations at its Los Angeles refinery in the fourth quarter of 2025, removing a further 138,700 barrels per day of US refining capacity.In its November Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts that after declining for several years, refinery margins (the difference between the selling price and the cost of production) for gasoline and diesel, known as crack spreads, will remain relatively unchanged in 2025.Crack spreads have been declining steadily since 2022, and we expect them to hold steady next year, even with the decrease in refining capacity. The good news from a consumer perspective is that lower crack spreads have resulted in reduced gasoline and diesel prices at the pump.— EIA expects the US gasoline price to average about $3.20 per gallon and diesel to average about $3.60 per gallon in 2025.Other highlights from the November STEO include:
- Brent crude oil spot price: EIA expects the Brent crude oil spot price to average about $76 per barrel in 2025. EIA expects that global oil inventories to increase in the second quarter of 2025, following five quarters of decreases, as increased production from OPEC+ and other regions result in global oil production outpacing demand. Two primary sources of uncertainty in EIA’s forecast are the course of conflicts in the Middle East and the willingness of OPEC+ members to adhere to production cuts.
- US distillate fuels consumption: EIA forecasts US consumption of distillate fuels will grow by about 4% in 2025, largely because of growth in domestic manufacturing activity and increased demand from truckers that ship goods.
- Global oil consumption: India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption in our forecast. Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally. We expect an increase of 1.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024. EIA expects even more growth next year, with global oil consumption rising by 1.2 million b/d.
- Global liquid fuels demand: EIA forecasts global liquid fuels consumption to have increased by about 1.0 million barrels per day by the end of this year and increase by 1.2 million barrels per day by the end of next year. Global liquid fuels consumption will likely average a record 104.4 million barrels per day for 2025, although the average consumption growth rate for each year is less than the average rate over the last ten years. Most liquid fuels consumption growth is in Asia—especially India. EIA expects India will increase its liquid fuels consumption by about 300,000 barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, driven by rising demand for transportation fuels.
- Winter fuels: EIA updated its forecasts for average household heating fuel expenditures for this winter after a warmer-than-normal start to the season. EIA expects negligible changes from its previous forecast for the average household consumption and total expenditures for heating fuels this winter.
US LNG Exports Poised to Hit 9-Month High - The seven largest US LNG export plants are receiving high volumes of gas, new data from LSEG revealed on Thursday, with gas flows expected to reach a nine-month high.The data shows that US LNG feedgas is set to rise from 14 billion cubic feet per day yesterday to 14.4 billion cubic feet per day today.Cheniere’s Sabine Pass export plant in Louisiana—the largest LNG export plant in the United States—was on track to receive 4.9 bcfd today—a three-week high.And flows could continue to climb as the new Plaquemines has been pulling gas in test mode for two months now, LSEG data shows. Federal regulators gave Venture Global LNG permission to begin starting up its LNG equipment at Plaquemines in early September. At the time, Venture said the first phase of the plant would begin exports later this year, with full operations resulting in 10 million tons per annum, making it the second largest single LNG facility in the U.S., behind Sabine Pass.The share prices of LNG exporters in the United States have seen a jump following Donald Trump’s election victory, with many seeing the industry as one of the main beneficiaries of an upcoming new trade deal between Washington and Brussels.Trump has spoken about the trade deficit that the U.S. has been running with the European Union for years and wants to change that by imposing tariffs on European imports. The European Commission’s president, Ursula von der Leyen, responded to that threat by suggesting the EU could boost the amount of U.S. LNG it buys.“We still get a whole lot of LNG via Russia, from Russia. And why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper, and brings down our energy prices,” Von der Leyen said earlier this month.
Improved AECO Pricing From LNG Canada Startup Unlikely to Last Long, Says Ovintiv CEO --Multi-basin independent Ovintiv Inc., which works in the Montney Shale of Western Canada, expects the startup of LNG Canada next year to lead to better natural gas prices at the AECO hub, but the gains may be transitory, CEO Brendan McCracken said. Chart showing Ovintiv's 3Q2024 operational performance. During the third quarter conference call on Friday, McCracken said Ovintiv’s Montney natural gas would help to feed the Shell plc-led LNG Canada export project and others underway in British Columbia (BC). LNG Canada, in Kitimat on the BC coast, is close to commissioning its first train. Another BC project, Cedar LNG, sponsored by Pembina Pipeline Corp. and the Haisla Nation, was sanctioned in June, but is not expected to impact markets in the near term.
Cedar LNG Construction Underway With Offtake Contracts Expected in Early ‘25, Says Pembina Exec --A pending patent lawsuit by Steelhead LNG against the proposed Cedar LNG export export facility in British Columbia is expected to have no impact on construction or in-service timelines, according to Pembina Pipeline Corp. executives. Map of Western Canada, specifically showing Cedar LNG infrastructure location with associated natural gas pipeline routes. “We don’t believe that the Cedar prior project infringes on the patent or that the patent is valid, there’s currently a challenge that has been ruled invalid in Canada,” said Pembina’s Janet Loduca, senior vice president of external affairs, during the third quarter conference call. "That appeal is going to be heard shortly. So no, we don’t anticipate any impacts to construction or in-service date for the project.”
Panama Canal Offering LNG Vessels More Incentives as Cape of Good Horn Transits Gain Favor -- Following a huge drop in U.S. LNG shipments to Asia that traveled through the Panama Canal, the waterway is offering a long-term slot allocation system (LOTSA) to attract more vessels. Map of Panama Canal and the associated infrastructure. It has been difficult for some LNG operators to secure slots at the Panama Canal in advance, but the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) is trying to resolve this situation by introducing the LOTSA system. It would allow shipowners to book up to one year ahead. According to Kpler, a number of players have already secured slots for 2025. The PCA was forced to reduce vessel traffic last year when lower water levels caused a historic drought. The canal typically is the fastest route for U.S. LNG to reach Asia. Vessels carrying American LNG took the longer route around Cape Horn at the southern tip of South America to deliver the super-chilled fuel to Asian customers.
U.S. Looks to Ensure Long-Term Demand for Its LNG in Europe --The United States is looking to keep its LNG flowing to Europe in the long term when the EU will have standards for methane emissions for all imported fossil fuels.The EU’s methane regulation will require imports of oil and gas, including LNG, to have equally strong or more stringent requirements of thresholds for these emissions than the European Union, starting in 2030.These requirements, yet to be deliberated and announced in detail, would mean that U.S. LNG developers and exporters would need to clean up their operations to ensure their product would be EU-emission compliant by the end of the decade.Days before the U.S. presidential election, the Biden Administration sought to begin discussions with the EU to ensure that LNG supply compliant with U.S. methane rules would automatically be considered compliant with the EU regulation. The Department of Energy (DOE) and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) co-signed a letteraddressed to European Commission Director-General for Energy Juul Jorgensen, requesting a determination of “equivalency” for U.S. exports of LNG to Europe.The letter was signed by DOE Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, Brad Crabtree, and the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Assistant Administrator for the Office of Air & Radiation, Joseph Goffman.“We understand that this process will take time. However, we would like to begin discussions as soon as possible, to ensure the continued reliable and stable supply of natural gas from the United States to Europe,” they wrote in the letter dated October 28.“We are confident that the United States’ extensive domestic regulatory regime to monitor, measure, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions (especially methane) from the oil and gas sector is consistent with the goals of the EU’s regulations,” they noted.With an alignment of methane emission standards, the U.S. is looking to keep its now largest LNG export market well into the next decade. It is also seeking to have methane regulation on U.S. LNG regardless of what President-elect Donald Trump would do with U.S. environmental protection requirements over the next four years—most likely repeal most of them.The United States, the world’s top LNG exporter last year ahead of Qatar and Australia, continued to export two-thirds of its LNG volumes to Europe, including Turkey, in 2023, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Western Sanctions Limiting Russian LNG Operations, but Cargoes Continue Flowing to Europe -- Despite an increasing number of sanctions on Russian LNG projects and vessels, cargoes continued to flow from the country’s export facilities, potentially raising the prospects of an increase in oil and natural gas revenues from state-owned entities like Gazprom PJSC. Bar chart showing Russian LNG exports by destination continent over the last six years. Europe’s LNG imports from Russia increased 20% in the first nine months of the year, compared with a 14% rise during the same period last year, according to Kpler data. The European Union’s (EU) investment ban last summer prohibited new investments and services in Russian LNG projects. The bloc would reduce the transshipment of Russian LNG via EU ports effective March 2025, but there still has been no EU-wide ban on Russian LNG.
Germany rejects arrival of Russian LNG shipment at Brunsbuttel terminal - Germany has refused to allow a Russian liquefied natural gas shipment at the Brunsbuttel terminal in northern Germany in line with Berlin's policy not to import LNG from Russia. The Financial Times reported earlier on Thursday that Germany's economy ministry BMWK had instructed the Deutsche Energy Terminal not to accept any deliveries of Russian LNG after the company informed Berlin that its Brunsbuttel import facility was set to receive a Russian cargo on Sunday. It was not clear who ordered the shipment. Three LNG tankers recently left the Yamal LNG facility in Russia and are awaiting orders, LSEG data showed. "The cargo was destined for Brunsbuttel and someone tried its luck and it seems wanted to check how Berlin would react," an industry source told Reuters, adding that this is "a bit of political PR stunt". Germany, Europe's largest economy and once Russia's largest importer of natural gas, has never directly imported Russian LNG and has stopped buying Russian pipeline gas following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. It has relied on LNG from the United States and elsewhere as well as on pipeline gas from Norway to replace Russian gas. "Germany does not import Russian gas as a matter of principle and it is also clear to the BMWK that this must not happen via German LNG terminals," a BMWK spokesperson said. In February, a spokesperson for the ministry said that German companies that import LNG or move it to Germany have committed to ensuring that no Russian LNG goes to Germany when they buy on the market. A Reuters analysis of data in April found that more than a tenth of the Russian gas formerly shipped by pipeline to the European Union has been replaced by LNG delivered to EU ports, mainly in Spain, Belgium, and France. While Germany no longer directly imports Russian gas, it is an ultimate destination for some of the Russian gas that is injected into pipelines by some other EU countries via Belgium's Zeebrugge and other terminals. Last year, Germany imported 48.6% of its gas via pipeline from Belgium, France and the Netherlands, according to the federal network regulator Bundesnetzagentur.
UPDATE: Austria says Russia to cut off gas from Saturday - Russia told Austria it is suspending gas deliveries from Saturday in a development that signals a fast approaching end of Moscow's last remaining gas flows to Europe. The suspension means Russia will now only supply significant gas volumes to Hungary and Slovakia, in stark contrast with the decades of dominance that saw it meet 40% of the EU's gas needs before Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Austria was the first western European country to buy Russian gas when the USSR signed a gas contract in 1968, just months before the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia. This year, the relationship will end following a contractual dispute between Russia's Gazprom and Austria's OMV. In a notice published on the central European gas hub platform, OMV said Gazprom told it supply would stop on Saturday. Gazprom declined to comment. Austria is one of the few European countries still dependent on Russian gas as much of the rest of the continent has reduced imports following the invasion of Ukraine. OMV said it has been preparing for the eventual cut-off of Russian gas and it can still deliver gas to its customers by importing via Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. "We still expect this will exacerbate an energy crisis in Austria that has caused its gas demand to drop significantly, and has hit its manufacturing sector," said analysts at Eurointelligence. "Austria's economy is currently stuck in recession. Germany is sneezing, and Austria is catching the cold," they added. Germany was also heavily reliant on Russian gas before the war, but shipments ceased when the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea were blown up in 2022. The notification of the end of supplies to Austria came as the Russian president, Vladimir Putin and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany - Russia's biggest gas customer until Moscow's forces invaded Ukraine - held their first phone conversation since December 2022. Russia was ready to look at energy deals if Berlin was interested, the Kremlin said. "It was emphasized that Russia has always strictly fulfilled its treaty and contractual obligations in the energy sector and is ready for mutually beneficial cooperation if the German side shows interest in this," the Kremlin said. Russia shipped about 15 Bm3 of gas via Ukraine in 2023 - representing only 8% of peak Russian gas flows to Europe via various routes in 2018–2019, according to data compiled by Reuters. In 2023, the transit route met 65% of gas demand in Austria and its eastern neighbors Hungary and Slovakia, according to the International Energy Agency. Ukraine has said it doesn't plan to extend the transit agreement into 2025, which would have meant the loss of gas for Austria and Slovakia. Hungary no longer gets much gas via Ukraine and imports volumes via the TurkStream pipeline which runs along the bed of the Black Sea. Slovakia still gets Russian gas via Ukraine. EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson told Reuters on the sidelines of a UN climate conference in Azerbaijan that all EU countries receiving gas via the Ukraine route have access to other supply sources that could fill the gap. "We have been very clear that alternative supply is available and there is no need for the continuation of Russian gas transiting via Ukraine to Europe," Simson said.
Russia Weighs Plan to Merge Biggest Oil Companies, WSJ Reports -- Russian officials and business executives have held talks about merging the country’s biggest oil companies into a single producer, the Wall Street Journal reported.Under one potential plan, state-backed Rosneft PJSC would take over Gazprom Neft and Lukoil PJSC, the newspaper said, citing unidentified people familiar with the discussions. The talks, which have taken place over the past few months, aren’t guaranteed to result in a deal, and plans could change, the people said.Lukoil and Gazprom Neft did not immediately respond to emails sent outside of regular business hours. Rosneft’s press service doesn’t accept requests over the weekend.A Rosneft spokesman told the WSJ that the reporting was false according to the information available to him, and said in an email to the paper that the article “may be aimed at creating competitive market advantages in the interests of other market participants.”A Lukoil spokesman said neither the company nor its shareholders were engaged in merger negotiations, while spokesmen for Gazprom Neft and Gazprom PJSC didn’t respond to requests for comment, according to the WSJ. A Kremlin spokesperson told the paper he had no knowledge of a deal. If such a deal was reached, the company would be the world’s largest crude producer after Saudi Aramco, according to the report.
Nigeria’s petrol imports surged in October – OPEC -- The volume of Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) imported into Nigeria surged in October, a report by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Company says. This is despite the fact that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery started producing petrol in September this year. OPEC, in its Monthly Oil Market Report, said though petrol import still remains at a 60 per cent low when compared to the same period in 2023, there was an increase in the quantity of PMS imported between September and October 2024. Recall that some vessels arrived on the shores of Nigeria to discharge PMS, especially at a time when marketers were at loggerheads with the Dangote refinery. It was learned that petrol import into Nigeria and West Africa came majorly from Europe during the month under review. Quoting Argus, OPEC said, “Gasoline exports to West Africa strengthened and compensated for a drop in flows to the US. Exports to Nigeria were reported to have surged compared to the level registered in September despite still remaining 60 per cent lower, year-on-year.” The report disclosed that PMS crack spread in Rotterdam against Brent increased as PMS exports from Europe rose in October. Additional European PMS volumes were said to have been shipped to Libya and Saudi Arabia in October as well. The international organisation maintained that new product volumes entering international markets from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, China’s Yulong petrochemical, and Mexico’s Olmeca refinery “are set to lengthen product balances going forward, particularly for gasoline.” Reuters earlier reports that about a third of Europe’s 1.33 million barrels per day average petrol exports in 2023 went to West Africa, a bigger chunk than any other region, with most of those exports ending up in Nigeria. It noted that the 650,000-capacity Dangote refinery could end a decades-long petrol trade from Europe to Africa, worth $17bn a year.Imperial Oil fined for 2021 'slop oil' spill in Sarnia | The Sarnia Observer -- Imperial Oil was fined $900,000 and ordered to pay a $225,000 victim surcharge after being convicted under the Environmental Protection Act of discharging “slop oil” in April 2021. The company pleaded guilty Sept. 16 in Sarnia court to one violation under the act, the Ontario Ministry of Environment, Conservation and Parks said Wednesday in a court bulletin on its website. “We regret this incident, and we accept the fine imposed by the court,” Imperial Oil said in a statement. Imperial has a refinery in Sarnia with steam tracer lines to keep its pipelines warm and leaks in the tracer lines are relatively common, the ministry said. The company discovered a leak in January 2021 in a tracer line along an elevated pipeline containing slop oil, a waste product typically composed of crude oil, water and waste solids that contains various contaminants which may include hydrogen sulphide, the ministry said. Imperial avoids conducting steam tracer line repairs in winter because of the risk of pipelines freezing and splitting and may schedule repairs for warmer weather. Steam tracer line leaks are categorized in three levels to determine priority for repairs, based on factors including urgency, repair time, resources and forecasted temperatures, the ministry said. The January 2021 leak was designated a second level priority and repairs were planned for March 2021 but in April of that year it was discovered steam escaping from the tracer leak had bored a hole in the nearby pipeline resulting in a spill, according to the ministry. The company said workers at the Sarnia site responded on April 15 to an incident involving a leak from a pipeline to a tank containment area and approximately 1,150 litres of slop oil was discharged. The spill was contained on site, the company said.
India to drive global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025: EIA -- India has emerged as the leading source of growth in global oil consumption, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on late Wednesday. Over 2024 and 2025, India accounts for 25% total oil demand growth globally, the EIA said in its November Short Term Energy Outlook. “We expect an increase of 1.0 million barrels per day in global consumption of liquid fuels in 2024,” the agency said. Next (LON:NXT) year, global oil consumption is likely to rise by a further 1.2 million barrels per day, it said in the report. The US energy agency said that the growth in global oil demand projected for both 2024 and 2025 will be below the pre-pandemic 10-year average of 1.5 million barrels per day of annual growth. The projected growth for this year and the next will also be lower than what was seen in the pandemic recovery period between 2021 and 2023. Most of the growth is seen from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development alliance. In India, oil demand is likely to increase by 300,000 barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, the EIA said. This will be driven by rising demand for transportation fuels. “We forecast China’s petroleum and liquid fuels consumption will grow by less than 0.1 million b/d in 2024 before recovering to almost 0.3 million b/d 2025,” the agency said.
Mathura refinery blast: Indian Oil refinery explosion injures 12 people - A major explosion occurred at the Indian Oil Corporation refinery on the Agra-Delhi National Highway on Tuesday, according to police. The incident has left at least 12 people injured. Eyewitnesses described hearing a loud blast followed by towering flames rising from the refinery in Mathura, with the fire visible from several kilometers away. The explosion occurred around 8:30 pm while the main plant was being restarted after a month-and-a-half-long shutdown. According to initial reports, 10 to 12 workers were injured in the fire, with four in critical condition, police said. The injured were initially treated at the refinery’s hospital. However, the four critically injured individuals were later transferred to a private hospital in the city for further care. While the refinery administration and district authorities have not yet released an official statement, Inspector Sonu Kumar from the refinery police station confirmed the incident. The explosion was heard between 8:30 pm and 9:00 pm, injuring several workers near the main plant, Inspector Kumar reported. Initially, the refinery attempted to control the fire internally and, after containing the blaze, notified local authorities, he added. The injured were first treated on-site, but four critically injured workers were admitted to the ICU at City Institute of Medical Sciences (CIMS) Hospital. All affected workers are currently reported to be in stable condition, with those in critical condition under close monitoring, Kumar said. In a statement, Renu Pathak, Senior Corporate Manager of Mathura Refinery, said about 12 people were injured in the incident. “The management of the refinery has ordered a probe to determine the cause of the explosion,” she said, PTI reported. According to Pathak, one employee suffered 50 per cent burn injuries, while two others sustained 20 per cent burn injuries. The remaining five workers, with relatively minor injuries, are currently receiving treatment at the refinery’s hospital. She added that the situation is now under control, and the fire is fully extinguished.
Indian Oil says fire at refinery fully extinguished, death toll climbs to two (Reuters) - Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), opens new tab said on Tuesday a fire at its Gujarat refinery had been fully extinguished and refinery operations were back to normal, even as the death toll rose to two. Officials had earlier said that one person was killed and two others injured in the fire that broke out on Monday in a benzene storage tank at the company's integrated refinery-cum-petrochemical complex in the western state of Gujarat. The blaze later spread to a second tank. "The second victim was a canteen worker in the refinery and received severe injuries...He died last night," AB Mori, the inspector of the Jawaharnagar police station, told Reuters on Tuesday. The company, in a statement, also confirmed the rise in the death toll and said remaining personnel, plant, and machinery were safe. "Expert teams are reaching site for assessment," it said.
OPEC+ Faces Double Trouble: China Demand Weakness And Trump's Policies -The OPEC+ group has struggled to manage oil supply and prices this year. First, there was overproduction from several members, undermining the cuts from the other producers in the pact.Then came the summer and the first actual consumption data for the first and second quarters of the year, showing that China’s oil demand growth is nowhere near OPEC’s expectations. Toward the end of the year, just as the cartel and its allies announced they would postpone the start of the easing of the production cuts to January 2025, they now have the wildest card on the market of all—President-elect Donald Trump.China’s weak oil demand has already thrown OPEC+ off track in its supply-management policies and continues to defy OPEC forecasts with underwhelming crude consumption and imports.The group now has to contend with some policies President-elect Trump has promised to introduce, including easier permitting for fossil fuel projects, import tariffs, and a more rigid stance toward Iran.China has already undermined the OPEC+ alliance’s policy. The group is cutting production, but demand has been weaker than expected amid slower Chinese economic growth, the property crisis undermining construction activities and diesel consumption, and the surge in electric vehicle (EV) sales and registrations of LNG-fueled trucks. OPEC has been wrong-footed by the surge in electric mobility in China, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook 2024 report last month.In October, OPEC cut its 2024 global oil demand forecast in the third consecutive monthly report, citing actual consumption data so far this year and expectations of slightly lower demand in some regions, including China.In each report since August, OPEC has signaled that its estimates of Chinese oil demand growth were too optimistic when it published the first outlook for 2024 in July 2023.Despite the optimistic long-term view, OPEC’s short-term demand outlook on China has been revised down, again.Weaker-than-expected oil consumption in China and rising electric vehicle sales will continue to weigh on the world’s oil demand growth going forward, according to the IEA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol. “This year, global oil demand is very weak, much weaker than previous years, and we expect this will continue because of one word — China,” Birol told Bloomberg in an interview last month.
OPEC Oil Production Jumps by 470,000 Bpd as Libyan Output Returns -The return of Libya’s oil production to full capacity raised the total OPEC output by 466,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October from September, the cartel’s monthly report showed on Tuesday, less than two months ahead of a planned reversal of part of the cuts.Total crude oil production in all 12 OPEC members averaged 26.53 million bpd in October 2024, up by 466,000 bpd compared to September, according to secondary sources in OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report published today.Crude oil output increased mainly in Libya, Nigeria and Congo, while production in Iran, Iraq, and Kuwait decreased, OPEC said.Libya saw a jump of 556,000 bpd in its production last month after the political impasse that had halted more than half of its output was resolved.Libya had most of its output halted for the whole month of September, and its oil production was decimated after the country’s two rival administrations locked horns over the appointment of a new central bank governor.Following the resolution of this latest crisis, Libyan oil production resumed in early October and is now estimated to have exceeded pre-crisis levels and hit 1.3 million bpd.Iran’s oil production, on the other hand, dropped by 68,000 bpd in October, per OPEC’s secondary sources.Awaiting a retaliatory strike from Israel, the Islamic Republic reduced output and alsoexports last month.Early last month, Iranian oil tankers were spotted moving away from Kharg Island, Iran’s biggest oil export terminal, amid fears of an imminent Israeli attack on the most important crude export infrastructure in Iran. Israel opted for a limited strike on Iran, which has somewhat defused tensions in the region, for now.Elsewhere among OPEC’s producers, Saudi Arabia, the top producer in the cartel, saw its output stable at just below 9 million bpd—as the Kingdom pledged more than a year ago.OPEC is set to begin reversing the production cuts in January 2025, market conditions permitting.
Oil Slides on US Dollar Strength, Chinese Demand Woes-- Oil futures extended their decline Monday morning, as the U.S. dollar index strengthened to a four-month high and Chinese stimulus measures fell short of expectations.China's Standing Committee of the National People's Congress concluded its week-long meeting Friday with the announcement of a $1.4 trillion debt package geared toward alleviating the growing liquidity crisis of local governments burdened by high debt and falling revenues, and did not include any direct stimulus measures to boost consumption. This further dimmed outlooks on Chinese oil demand growth which had trailed expectations for most of the year.The package should ease deflationary pressures brought upon local government spending cuts but fails to address those brought upon lackluster domestic consumption. Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Saturday showed consumer price inflation in October slowing to 0.3% year-on-year, with prices falling 0.3% from September. Producer price deflation, meanwhile, accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year, the steepest in 11 months.The U.S. dollar index reached a four-month high 105.5 on Monday, further pressuring USD denominated commodities. Friday's rally had already erased most gains spurred by OPEC+ postponing a planned output hike. The producer group, which had banked on its largest consumer to drive oil demand growth, slightly lowered growth expectations last month but remained much more bullish than the IEA and EIA. OPEC's monthly oil market report is scheduled for release Tuesday, with EIA's short-term energy outlook following Wednesday and IEA's monthly oil report Thursday. Near 9:45 a.m. EST, WTI for December delivery was trading near $68.53 barrel (bbl), down $1.85, and Brent for January delivery was down $1.77 near $72.10 bbl. December RBOB fell $0.0423 gal to $1.9702, and December ULSD retreated $0.0374 gal to $2.2015.
Oil Market Recap: Factors Affecting Bearish Sentiment -- The oil market settled lower Monday as a confluence of factors kept the bears in control of this market. A surging dollar, coupled with poor near term heating demand, and disappointing economic data continuing to come out of China helped the oil markets basically match or exceed the losses recorded on Friday. In just the past two trading sessions, the spot WTI contracts have lost $4.32 per barrel in value while the spot distillate and gasoline contracts dropped by 8.88 cents and 9.66 cents respectively.The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service updated their winter season temperature outlook on Monday. The weather forecasting service sees a probability of at least 60% that northern Europe and the Mediterranean will experience above normal temperatures between December and February. Forecasters noted that no section of Europe is expected to see seasonal temperatures to be below normal. Forecasters see both Japan and the northeastern U.S. facing a 70-100% probability for temperatures averaging above normal for the upcoming December-February period. Hurricane Rafael is no longer threatening production areas in the Gulf of Mexico as the storm had dissipated over the past weekend. The National Hurricane Center currently is watching an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea which is associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. There is a 50% chance that a tropical depression could form later this week or this weekend as it moves toward the western Caribbean Sea. Longer term, forecasters do not expect additional tropical development in the Atlantic basin as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is expected to be moving through a Phase 2-3 event over the next 8-14 day period and beyond.The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) reported this afternoon that some 26% of offshore crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, or 449,541 b/d still remained shut in from the result of closures due to Hurricane Rafael’s passage through the Gulf of Mexico.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 557,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 15th, raising available refining capacity by 85,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 399,000 bpd in the week ending November 22nd.Vortexa reported today that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -0.4% week on week to 61.78 million barrels in the week ending November 8th.
Oil falls on Chinese stimulus disappointment, supply outlook (Reuters) - Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Monday after China's latest stimulus plan disappointed investors seeking demand growth in the world's second-biggest oil consumer, while supply looked set to rise in 2025. Brent crude futures settled at $71.83 a barrel, down$2.04 or 2.76%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures finished at $68.04 a barrel, down $2.34, or 3.32%.Both benchmarks fell more than 2% on Friday.Donald Trump's U.S. election victory may continue to affect the market, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for the Price Futures Group."The election with Trump's promise to 'drill, baby, drill' has taken away some incentive to go long," Flynn said.The U.S. dollar index , a measure of its value relative to a basket of foreign currencies, slightly overshot the highs seen right after last week'sU.S. presidential election, with markets still waiting for clarity about future U.S. policy.A stronger dollar makes commodities denominated in the U.S. currency, such as oil, more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on prices.In China, consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in four months in October while producer price deflation deepened, data showed on Saturday, even as Beijing doubled down on stimulus to support the sputtering economy."Chinese inflation figures were again weak, with the market fearing deflation, particularly as the yearly change in the producer price index fell further into negative territory ... Chinese economic momentum remains negative," said Achilleas Georgolopoulos. Bank of America Securities said in a note on Monday that non-OPEC crude supply was expected to grow by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026."Meaningful non-OPEC growth next year and an unconvincing Chinese stimulus package likely mean inventories will swell even without OPEC+ increases," Bank of America noted. In late September, OPEC+ said it would boost supply in December by 180,000 bpd, but earlier this month an agreement was reached among the member and allied countries to postpone the supply expansion until January.The U.S. offshore production regulator said 25.7% of crude oil production and 13% natural gas output remains shut because of Hurricane Rafael, which by Monday broke apart and was only a remnant storm in the central Gulf of Mexico.
OPEC's Latest Downward Revision for Demand Growth - The crude market settled in a sideways trading range after trading lower in follow through selling seen in the previous two sessions as the market weighed OPEC’s latest downward revision for demand growth, a stronger U.S. dollar and disappointment over China’s stimulus plan announced on Friday. The crude market breached its previous low and posted a low of $67.75 in overnight trading. However, the market recovered some of its losses only to trade back down towards the $68.00 level in light of OPEC cutting its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and also cutting its projection for next year. The oil market later rallied to a high of $69.13 by mid-morning. However, the market seesawed back towards the lower end of its trading range and settled in a 50 cent trading range during the remainder of the session. The November WTI contract settled up 8 cents at $68.12 and the December Brent contract settled up 6 cents at $71.89. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 1.32 cents at $2.2108 and the RB market settling up 73 points at $1.9643. OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and lowered its projection for next year, highlighting China, India and other regions, marking the producer group’s fourth consecutive downward revision. In a monthly report on Tuesday, OPEC said world oil demand will increase by 1.82 million bpd in 2024, down from growth of 1.93 million bpd previously forecast. China accounted for the bulk of the 2024 downgrade. OPEC trimmed its Chinese growth forecast to 450,000 bpd from 580,000 bpd and said diesel use in September fell year on year for a seventh consecutive month. OPEC, which is still at the top end of industry estimates after the revision, also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd. The report also showed that OPEC’s output is increasing, with Libyan production rebounding after being cut by unrest. OPEC+ produced 40.34 million bpd in October, up 215,000 bpd from September. Meanwhile, Iraq cut its output by 66,000 barrels to 4.068 million bpd, closer to its 4 million bpd quota. OPEC said Russia’s crude oil output increased in October by 9,000 bpd to about 9.01 million bpd. This was slightly above the quota agreed by the OPEC+ group. Under OPEC+ deals and voluntary cuts, Russia’s monthly quota stands at 8.98 million bpd. Russia has pledged to compensate for its overproduction since April with reductions in October and November this year and between March and September next year.The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement reported that more than a 10% or 183,992 bpd of U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil and 3% or 59 million cubic feet of natural gas output remained offline in the aftermath of post-tropical cyclone Rafael.BloombergNEF is estimating that net oil refining capacity globally is set to grow by 4.7 million b/d over the next six years outpacing the expected growth in consumption. S&P Commodity Insights estimates that for the week ending November 8th U.S. crude oil exports stood at 3.13 million b/d.
Oil prices hold near 2-week low after OPEC cuts demand view, dollar rises (Reuters) - Oil prices held near a two-week low on Tuesday after dropping about 5% over the past two sessions as investors absorbed OPEC's latest downward revision for demand growth, a stronger U.S. dollar and disappointment over China's latest stimulus plan.Brent futures were up 6 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $71.89 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $68.12.On Monday, both crude benchmarks settled at their lowest prices since Oct. 29. "A normal tendency in crude following a sharp drop would be a recovery back to about the middle of the prior day's range within a couple of sessions," OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and also lowered its projection for next year, marking the producer group's fourth consecutive downward revision. The weaker outlook highlights the challenge facing OPEC+, a group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia. This month, the group postponed a plan to start raising output in December against a backdrop of falling prices."With China's demand remaining lackluster, supply-side tinkering by OPEC is not having the desired impact other than to maintain the Brent price floor at $70," said Gaurav Sharma, an independent oil analyst in London.OPEC said world oil demand would rise by 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from growth forecast of 1.93 million bpd last month.The group also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.54 million bpd from 1.64 million bpd.OPEC remains at the top of industry estimates and has a long way to go to match the International Energy Agency's far lower view. OPEC's forecast on robust growth in China is "at odds with other forecasters, who have considerably reduced their end-2024 estimates on China's poor macroeconomic performance and disappointing fiscal stimulus," On Friday, China unveiled a 10-trillion-yuan ($1.4-trillion) debt package to ease local government financing strains. Republican former President Donald Trump, who won the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, has threatened more tariffs on Chinese goods.Analysts said China's plan fell short of the amount needed to boost economic growth.Another factor that could limit oil demand growth is the foreign policy team Trump is putting together. Trump is expected to tap U.S. Senator Marco Rubio to be his secretary of state, sources said. Rubio has in past years advocated for a muscular foreign policy with respect to America's geopolitical foes, including China, Iran and Cuba."The foreign policy team (including possibly Rubio) is being brought in to tighten the screws on China, which will threaten oil demand growth from the largest oil importing country on the planet," Also weighing on oil prices, the U.S. dollar rose to a four-month high versus a basket of currencies as investors kept piling into trades seen benefiting from Trump's victory.A stronger greenback makes oil more expensive in other countries, which can reduce demand.In Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, investor morale clouded over this month, an economic research institute said, as Trump's election and the collapse of the German government unleashed added uncertainty over Germany's already ailing economy.Protectionist policies from the incoming U.S. administration will hamper global growth and Europe must be better prepared than in 2018,European Central Bank policymakers said.
Crude prices rise on temporary supply tightness in physical market | S&P Global Commodity Insights --Crude oil futures rose in midmorning trading in Asia on Nov. 13, as short-term supply tightness in the physical market prompted buyers to secure any available cargoes, supported by OPEC's relatively bullish global oil demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025. Overnight, the NYMEX December WTI settled 8 cents, or 0.12%, higher at $68.12/b, and the ICE January Brent climbed 6 cents, or 0.08%, to settle at $71.89/b, remaining relatively steady in the US open. At 11.53 am Singapore time (0353 GMT), the ICE January Brent futures contract rose 18 cents/b (0.25%) from the previous close to $72.07/b, while the NYMEX December light sweet crude contract was up 15 cents/b (0.22%) at $68.27/b. "Crude oil prices edged higher as tightness in the physical market offset bearish sentiment on demand," Previously, pessimism weighed on the crude complex, as concerns over the potential imposition of new US tariffs on China compounded disappointment over Beijing's recent stimulus measures, which failed to boost sentiment in the flatlining economy of the world's largest crude importer."Buyers in the physical market have been particularly active, with any available cargoes being snapped up quickly. This has supported the Dated Brent benchmark, despite futures prices in WTI suggesting an oil glut is looming," OPEC trimmed its estimate for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025 for the fourth time in as many months, days after punting plans to start tapering 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts into January, although the bloc remains far more bullish than many other forecasters.In its closely watched monthly oil market report released Nov. 12, OPEC projected global demand to grow by 1.82 million b/d in 2024 -- down 110,000 b/d month over month and 430,000 b/d lower than its July forecast -- to 104.03 million b/d.Meanwhile, OPEC forecast that global oil consumption will rise by 1.54 million b/d in 2025, down from its October estimate of 1.64 million b/d.Although OPEC has revised its demand forecasts downward in recent months, it remains significantly more optimistic than other forecasters, with the estimated "call" on OPEC+ crude -- the quantity the alliance must produce to balance the market -- well above current production levels."[OPEC] attributed the change to weakening demand in China and India. Nevertheless, its outlook remains relatively bullish compared with other major agencies, such as the IEA [International Energy Agency]. In some cases, its demand growth forecast is almost double the rate," Martin and Hynes said. Meanwhile, attention has shifted back to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East as the global market waits for President-elect Donald Trump's new cabinet appointments for his second term in the Oval Office. President-elect Donald Trump's Middle East policy remains uncertain, but former US officials said Nov. 12 that his penchant for deal-making and stated opposition to international conflict could help ease tensions with Iran. "Trump is inherently unpredictable, and his first term is no indication for his second term," Ryan Cocker, former US Ambassador to Syria, Iraq, Pakistan, Kuwait, Afghanistan and Lebanon, said. "His Middle East agenda remains a mystery, possibly even to him at the moment." "Newly appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio, known for his hardline stance on Iran and support for Israel, could bring a new layer of geopolitical tension to the energy markets," As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East potentially simmer, the likelihood of supply disruptions may rise, providing some support to the crude complex. "Heightened pressure on Iran could lead to supply disruptions, ramping up the stakes for oil traders navigating this volatile environment,"
Prices Continued to Trend Lower in Follow Through Selling - On Wednesday, the oil market retraced its earlier losses on some short covering after prices continued to trend lower in follow through selling seen in the last few trading sessions. Early in the session, the market posted a high of $68.86 before it sold off to a low of $66.94 as it breached its previous low of $67.75 and its support line at $67.52. The crude market remained pressured by the OPEC report released on Tuesday showing lower global oil demand growth for 2024 and 2025 amid demand concerns in China. The market also pressured amid the strength in the U.S. dollar, which traded to a near seven month high after data showed U.S. inflation for October increased by 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year, in line with expectations, suggesting the Fed will keep cutting rates. However, the market later bounced off its low and traded back towards its high in afternoon trading. The December WTI contract settled up 31 cents at $68.43 and the January Brent contract settled up 39 cents at $72.28. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 85 points at $2.2193 and the RB market settling up 8 points at $1.9651. In its Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA reported world oil consumption in 2024 is expected to increase by 990,000 bpd to 103.13 million bpd and increase by 1.22 million bpd in 2025 to 104.35 million bpd. Meanwhile, world oil output in 2024 is forecast to increase by 600,000 barrels to 102.62 million bpd and by 2.04 million bpd to 104.66 million bpd in 2025. The EIA also reported that U.S. output is forecast to increase by 300,000 bpd to 13.23 million bpd in 2024 and by 300,000 bpd to 13.53 million bpd in 2025. U.S. total petroleum products consumption in 2024 is forecast to increase by 40,000 bpd to 20.32 million bpd and by 190,000 bpd to 20.51 million bpd in 2025. U.S. gasoline demand is expected to remain unchanged in 2024 at 8.94 million bpd and fall by 20,000 bpd to 8.92 million bpd in 2025, while distillate demand is expected to fall by 100,000 bpd to 3.82 million bpd in 2024 and increase by 150,000 bpd to 3.97 million bpd in 2025.Oil prices may see a drastic fall in the event that OPEC+ unwinds its existing output cuts. Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at OPIS said oil prices could fall to $30 to $40/barrel if OPEC unwinds its output cuts and does not have any kind of real agreement to rein in production. The head of energy, climate and resources at Eurasia Group, Henning Gloystein, said that given that oil demand growth next year probably would not be much more than 1 million bpd, a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts in 2025 would “undoubtedly see a very steep decline in crude prices, possibly towards $40 a barrel.” Similarly, MST Marquee’s senior energy analyst Saul Kavonic said that should OPEC+ unwind cuts without regard to demand, it would “effectively amount to a price war over market share that could send oil to lows not seen since COVID.”IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 563,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 15th, raising available refining capacity by 79,000 bpd.Enbridge said Tuesday apportionment on its Canadian Mainline crude oil system has been reinstated for November at 2% for both light and heavy barrels. The Mainline has been apportioned for every month this year except September and October due to industry turnarounds. Enbridge said it is ongoing discussions with producers for adding additional 100,000-150,000 b/d pipeline capacity out of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, with an estimated in-service date of late 2026 or early 2027.
Oil rebounds slightly on short-covering as strong dollar caps gains (Reuters) - Oil prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday on short-covering a day after they fell near a two-week low on OPEC's reduced demand forecast, but gains were limited as the dollar hit a seven-month high.Brent crude futures settled up 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $72.28 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures gained 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $68.43.On Tuesday, the benchmarks closed at their lowest level in nearly two weeks after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, citing weak demand in China, India, and other regions. It was the producer group's fourth straight downward revision for 2024."The forecast is no doubt bearish and the market is still digesting it," , adding the market bounced back as some speculative investors tried to recoup losses.Both U.S. and global oil production are set to rise to slightly larger record highs this year than prior forecasts, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.U.S. oil output is now expected to average 13.23 million barrels per day (bpd) this year and global production is set to reach 102.6 million bpd.The International Energy Agency, which has a much lower demand growth forecast than OPEC's, is set to publish its updated estimate on Thursday.Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have underscored the importance of continuing a "close coordination" within OPEC+ during a phone call on Wednesday, also providing some support.On the supply side, markets could still face disruption from Iran or further conflict between Iran and Israel."If this war continues, Israel is eventually going to attack Iranian oil assets," said Clay Seigle, an independent political risk strategist. "This could be limited to Iran's refineries, but Israeli planners may be more ambitious and go for production and export facilities," he said.Trump's expected pick for secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio, could be bullish for prices as his hawkish view on Iran could see sanctions enforced, potentially removing 1.3 million bpd from global supply, . Iran's oil minister said Tehran had made plans to sustain oil production and exports and was ready for possible oil curbs by the U.S., the ministry's news website Shana reported.Limiting oil price gains, the dollar advanced to near a seven-month high against major currencies after data showed U.S. inflation for October increased in line with expectations, suggesting the Federal Reserve will keep cutting rates.A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.U.S. crude stocks fell by 777,000 barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Wednesday. That compares with a forecast by analysts polled by Reuters for a 100,000-barrel build. Government data is due on Thursday at 11 a.m. ET. Both reports were delayed a day due to Monday's Veterans Day holiday.
Oil Prices Decline Due to a Stronger Dollar and Concerns Over Increased Production After Trump’s Election Victory - Oil prices fell in early trading Thursday, reversing most of the previous session’s gains due to a stronger dollar and concerns about higher global output amid sluggish demand growth forecasts. Brent crude futures dropped 45 cents, or 0.6%, to $71.83 per barrel by 0726 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 48 cents, or 0.7%, to $67.95 per barrel. “The main driver of oil prices, both in the near term and longer term, will be the direction of the U.S. dollar,” said Danish Lim, an investment analyst at Phillip Nova, adding that recent supply and demand dynamics have been putting downward pressure on prices. Lim noted that the dollar’s recent rally has been a key factor, predicting that oil markets will remain volatile, though with a bearish tilt. The U.S. dollar surged to a one-year high, extending Wednesday’s gains after hitting a seven-month high against major currencies, following data showing U.S. inflation in October rose in line with expectations. This, in turn, raised concerns about slowing demand in the United States. The market is a “mix of weak demand factors,” with recent worries including a rise in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and an increase in the 10-year breakeven inflation rate to 2.35%, “This increases the odds of a shallow Fed interest rate cut cycle going into 2025, meaning there is less liquidity to drive an increase in oil demand,” he added. On the supply side, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its forecast for U.S. oil output slightly, to an average of 13.23 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, up 300,000 bpd from last year’s record 12.93 million bpd, and higher than an earlier estimate of 13.22 million bpd. The agency also increased its global oil output forecast for 2024 to 102.6 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 102.5 million bpd, and expects global output of 104.7 million bpd in 2025, up from a previous forecast of 104.5 million bpd. The EIA’s oil demand growth forecasts are weaker than those of OPEC, projecting about 1 million bpd in 2024, though that is up from its earlier estimate of about 900,000 bpd. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) oil market report is expected later today. With demand slowing in China, there are few supply-demand factors currently supporting bullish oil markets, noted independent analyst Tina Teng. Markets were also assessing the potential impact of Donald Trump’s U.S. presidential election win on oil prices, according to some analysts. “While the near-term impact is likely limited, the possibility of friendlier ties with the Middle East, potential production increases from OPEC+, reduced geopolitical risks, and an overall more favorable drilling environment in the U.S. all put a cap on oil price sentiment,” said Suvro Sarkar, sector lead for DBS Bank’s energy team. The potential for Trump’s win to slow global economic growth and dampen demand in China adds further bearish sentiment, said Teng.
WTI Dips After Crude Inventories Build To Highest In 3 Months - Oil price are trading higher this morning after treading water for two days (lower than pre-election) following API's report of a (unexpected) small crude inventory draw and despite a strong dollar. However, the IEA on Thursday warned that the oil market faces a surplus of more than 1 million barrels a day next year,which could swell further if OPEC+ decides to press ahead with supply hikes."World oil supply is rising at a healthy clip. Following the early November US elections, we continue to expect the United States to lead non-OPEC+ supply growth of 1.5 mb/d in both 2024 and 2025, along with higher output from Canada, Guyana and Argentina," the report noted." ... Total growth from the five American producers will more than cover expected demand growth in 2024 and 2025 ... Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 mb/d next year."In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released Wednesday the Energy Information Administration also predicted supply will exceed demand beginning in the second quarter of next year. API
- Crude -800k
- Cushing -1.9mm
- Gasoline +300k
- Distillates +1.1mm
DOE:
- Crude +2.09mm
- Cushing -688k
- Gasoline -4.41mm
- Distillates -1.39mm
US Crude stocks unexpectedly rose last week according to the official DOE data (as opposed to the small draw reported by API). Product inventories tumbled though (as did stocks at the Cushing hub)...Total US crude stocks are back at their highest since early August...
Oil settles slightly higher, investors focus on steep draw in fuel stocks (Reuters) - Oil prices closed slightly higher in choppy trading on Thursday, as a steep draw in U.S. fuel stocks outweighed oversupply concerns and demand worries stemming from a stronger dollar.Brent crude futures settled 28 cents, or 0.4% higher at $72.56 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4% at $68.70. Both benchmarks had briefly dipped into negative territory during the trading session.Brent was on track to lose about 1.7% for the week, while WTI was set to end the week over 2% lower due to a stronger U.S. dollar and worries about rising supply amid slow demand growth.U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 4.4 million barrels last week, the Energy Information Administration said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 600,000-barrel build. The stockpile of 206.9 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 8 was the lowest since November 2022. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 1.4 million barrels, versus expectations for a 200,000-barrel rise. U.S. gasoline futures settled 0.8% higher, while heating oil futures closed down about 0.3% after briefly spiking on the data. Capping oil-price gains, however, was a 2.1-million barrel rise in U.S. crude inventories last week, much more than analysts' expectations for a 750,000-barrel rise. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency forecast global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, as rising production from the U.S. and other outside producers outpaces sluggish demand.The Paris-based agency raised its 2024 demand growth forecast by 60,000 barrels per day to 920,000 bpd, and left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little changed at 990,000 bpd.The premium of the front month WTI contract over the second month contract also narrowed this week to its smallest since June. The narrowing of the premium, or backwardation, indicates that a perception of tight supply for prompt delivery has eased.The dollar surged to a one-year high, and headed for a fifth-straight daily gain fuelled by higher yields and President-elect Donald Trump's election victory in the United States.A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can reduce demand.A rally in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields and a surge in the 10-year break-even inflation rate to 2.35% added to demand worries, "(This) increases the odds of a shallow Fed interest-rate-cut cycle heading into 2025 (and) overall, there is less liquidity to stoke an increase in demand for oil," OPEC on Tuesday cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and next, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions, marking the producer group's fourth-consecutive downward revision in the 2024 outlook."Crude futures are trying to establish an equilibrium pricing, as a rising U.S. dollar index is creating a further headwind, along with a Trump administration that will now have control of Congress, which is likely to roll back most of the Biden administration's energy policies," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said in a note. Brent crude is expected to average $80 across 2025, down from a forecast at the end of September for $85, UBS Switzerland AG's oil strategist Giovanni Staunovo wrote in a note, citing lowered demand growth estimates, particularly from China."Overall, we see the oil market as balanced to marginally oversupplied next year," Staunovo said.
Oil settles down 2% on weaker Chinese demand, uncertainty over Fed rate cut (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down more than 2% on Friday as investors fretted about weaker Chinese demand and a potential slowing in the pace of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.Brent crude futures settled down $1.52, or 2.09%, to $71.04 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled down $1.68, or 2.45%, at $67.02.For the week, Brent fell around 4%, while WTI declined around 5%. China's oil refiners in October processed 4.6% less crude than a year earlier because of plant closures and reduced operating rates at smaller independent refiners, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday. The country's factory output growth slowed last month and demand woes in its property sector showed few signs of abating, adding to investors' concerns over the economic health of the world's largest crude importer. "The headwinds out of China are persisting, and whatever stimulus they put forward could be damaged by a new round of tariffs by the Trump administration," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to end China's most-favored-nation trading status and impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60% - much higher than those imposed during his first term. Goldman Sachs Research economists have modestly lowered their 2025 growth forecast for China, the bank said in a note, following on expectations of significant tariff increases under Trump.“However, we would likely make larger downgrades if the trade war were to escalate further,” Goldman Sachs Research chief economist, Jan Hatzius said in the note.Oil prices also fell this week as major forecasters indicated slowing global demand growth."Global oil demand is getting weaker," said International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol on Friday at the COP29 summit."We have been seeing this for some time and this is mainly driven by the slowing Chinese economic growth and the increasing penetration of electric cars around the world."The IEA forecasts global oil supply to exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025 even if cuts remain in place from OPEC+.OPEC, meanwhile, cut its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and 2025, highlighting weakness in China, India and other regions. U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting the economy kicked off the fourth quarter on a strong note."The economic data this morning was strong and notable so that is keeping things somewhat stable with regard to what the U.S. demand picture should be," Again Capital's Kilduff said.The data added to the debate among Federal Reserve policymakers over the pace and extent of interest rate cuts as investors further downgraded their expectations for a rate reduction at the central bank's December meeting.Lower interest rates typically spur economic growth, aiding fuel demand.Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, however, did not rule out a December rate cut when speaking on Bloomberg's television channel."Looking at those numbers, there is nothing forcing the Fed to get real crazy about it, I think the odds for a 25 basis rate cut for December have dropped to between high 50s-60%," said chief economist at Matador Economics, Tim Snyder. "I wouldn't be surprised if we do not see anything in December, and have to wait and see how the year ends," Snyder added.
Oil prices fall for the week on bets for a 'looming surplus,' soft China demand - Oil futures settled at their lowest in over two months Friday with expectations for a supply surplus next year, strength in the U.S. dollar, and continued worries over demand from China - the world's largest crude importer - prompting prices to post a loss for the week.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for December delivery CL.1 CLZ24 fell $1.68, or nearly 2.5%, to settle at $67.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices based on the front month contract settled at their lowest since Sept. 10 and logged a weekly fall of 4.8%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- January Brent crude BRN00 BRNF25, the global benchmark, shed $1.52, or 2.1%, at $71.04 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. It saw a weekly decline of 3.8% and settled at the lowest since Sept. 11.
- -- December gasoline RBZ24 fell 1.6% to $1.9493 a gallon, for a loss of 3.1% for the week, while December heating oil HOZ24 lost 1.9% to $2.1709 a gallon, posting a weekly loss of 3%.
- -- Natural gas for December delivery NGZ24 settled at $2.823 per million British thermal units, up 1.4% for the session and up 5.8% for the week.
Oil prices fell against a backdrop of a "looming surplus, even as the U.S. appears headed for a soft landing," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research.He pointed out that even if the group of major oil producers known as OPEC+ continues to extend production cuts, the International Energy Agency has predicted that supply will exceed demand by 1 million barrels next year.Saudi Arabia seems to be "getting more unhappy" with the countries that are producing oil above their quotas - primarily Iraq and the U.A.E. - which "raises the possibility of a price war," Lynch told MarketWatch.Strength in the dollar also contributed to oil's losses this week. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the currency against a basket of six major rivals, was on track for a 1.6% weekly rise and traded at its highest in a year. A rising dollar can be a negative for commodities priced in the unit, making them more expensive to users of other currencies.Investors also have been weighing the potential impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's agenda, which ranges from efforts to increase domestic oil production to tighter enforcement of sanctions on Iran. Trump's biggest impact will be internationally, said Lynch. "If he tightens enforcement of Iranian sanctions, that could take 1 [million barrels of oil per day] off the market, supporting the current price level," but if he undermines sanctions on Russia, that would largely offset the lower Iranian supplies.'Fears about economic instability in the U.S. as Trump upends the government, combined with Chinese economic weakness, suggest that $70 might be a ceiling' for U.S. oil prices for now Michael Lynch, Strategic Energy & Economic ResearchLooking ahead, "fears about economic instability in the U.S. as Trump upends the government, combined with Chinese economic weakness, suggest that $70 might be a ceiling" for U.S. oil prices for now, said Lynch.Government data from China showed refinery throughput fell 4.6% year-over-year in October, according to Reuters.Some of the reduced refining capacity can be attributed to refinery maintenance season coming to a close, Alex Hodes, director of energy-market strategy at StoneX, wrote in a Friday newsletter. "However, the weakness in demand clearly continues from the world's second-largest oil consumer."For now, Lynch thinks the floor for U.S. oil prices "might be $60, but a price war could see us at $50, even if briefly."The market may not yet be at the point where the Saudis will initiate a price war, but "after global inventories begin building, we will be much closer," he said.
Operation to transfer oil from tanker damaged by Houthis - A ship-to-ship transfer of crude oil from Sounion’s cargo tanks has begun in Egypt more than two months after the vessel was badly damaged in a Houthi attack, sparking fears of an oil spill disaster in the region. According to Egypt’s Shipping Ministry, the operation is expected to take three to four weeks to complete, Sounion was towed into the Suez anchorage south of the Suez Canal from the north of Yemen a week ago after about 20 fires burning on her deck had been extinguished. EUNAVOF Aspides provided security during the initial towing, which began on September 14, when she was moved to a more secure location north of Yemen, closer to Eritrea. Salvage crews worked for six weeks to douse fires, mostly in the tank hatches. However, Egyptian officials have now raised concern that the tanker’s structural integrity was compromised during the attacks on August 21 and by the later Houthi explosions on the deck. The vessel was left without power and her bridge was destroyed during the initial attacks. Officials said they were concerned that the vessel had no means of maintaining stability without power. The Sounion was carrying 150 000 tonnes of crude oil (one million barrels) that had been loaded in Iraq when she was attacked en route to Rotterdam. The crew was safely evacuated by French naval forces the day after the first attack. Greece’s Delta Tankers, which manages the vessel, dispatched one of its crude oil tankers, Delta Blue (158 322 dwt), to Egypt for the operation. The Houthis said in a statement last week that the rebels would “continue to impose a naval blockade on the Israeli enemy and target all vessels belonging to it, associated with it or bound for it, and this blockade will continue until the aggression stops, the blockade of the Gaza Strip is lifted and the aggression against Lebanon is stopped”.
Arab, Muslim leaders touch down in Riyadh for talks on war in Gaza and Lebanon | The Times of Israel Arab and Muslim leaders have begun arriving in Saudi Arabia for a summit scheduled for Monday that will focus on Israel’s wars against the Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah terror groups, Saudi state media said. The Saudi foreign ministry announced the summit in late October during the first meeting of an “international alliance” pushing for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Attendees will “discuss the continued Israeli aggression on the Palestinian territories and the Lebanese Republic, and the current developments in the region,” the official Saudi Press Agency said on Sunday. It comes one year after a similar gathering in Riyadh of the Cairo-based Arab League and the Jeddah-based Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) during which leaders condemned Israeli forces’ actions in Gaza as “barbaric.” The Saudi state-affiliated Al-Ekhbariya news channel broadcast footage on Sunday of Nigerian President Bola Tinubu and Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati landing in Riyadh. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was also scheduled to attend, the Pakistani foreign ministry said last week, adding that he planned to call for “an immediate end to the genocide in Gaza” and the “immediate cessation of the ongoing Israeli adventurism in the region.” The 57-member OIC and 22-member Arab League include countries that recognize Israel and others firmly opposed to its regional integration. Last year’s summit in Riyadh saw disagreement on measures like severing economic and diplomatic ties with Israel and disrupting its oil supplies. Israel has been at war with Hamas and its allies since October 7, 2023, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel from the Gaza Strip, massacring some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, 97 of whom are still being held. The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 43,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 18,000 combatants in battle and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7. Israel also says it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques. Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip stands at 370.m
Saudi Arabia’s MBS demands immediate end to Israel’s war in Gaza, Lebanon | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has demanded that Israel immediately stop its military aggression in Gaza and Lebanon at the opening of a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh. In an address before the joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) summit on Monday, the crown prince, also known as MBS, condemned the “massacre committed against Palestinian and Lebanese people”. He urged Israel “to refrain from any further act of aggression” and called on countries around the world to recognise Palestinian statehood. Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary-general of the Arab League, also joined MBS in condemning Israel’s military operation in Gaza and Lebanon, saying that “words cannot express the plight of the Palestinian people”. “The actions taken by Israel against the Palestinian people are undermining efforts to achieve lasting peace. It is only with justice that we will be able to establish lasting peace,” Aboul Gheit said. \ “The world cannot turn a blind eye” to Israeli violence, he stressed. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati told the summit that his country was suffering an “unprecedented” crisis that threatens its existence, as Israel wages war on Hezbollah. “Lebanon is going through an unprecedented historical and existential crisis that threatens its present and future,” he said. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian did not attend the meeting due to pressing “executive matters”. But Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref condemned Israel’s assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as “organised terrorism” in remarks to the summit. “The operations that are conceptualised with the deceptive phrasing of ‘targeted killing’, and during which Palestinian elites and leaders of other countries in the region are killed one by one or en masse, are nothing but lawlessness and organised terrorism,” he said. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu also attended the summit. In the closing statement on Monday, the assembled leaders said they “condemn in the strongest terms” the Israeli army’s actions “in the context of the crime of genocide … especially in the northern Gaza Strip during the past weeks”, citing torture, executions, disappearances and “ethnic cleansing”. The statement also condemned attempts to cement Israel’s grip on Israeli-occupied east Jerusalem, calling it the “eternal capital” of the Palestinian territories, and called for the unification of the Israeli-occupied West Bank, the Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem under a Palestinian state. “We reaffirm the full sovereignty of the State of Palestine over occupied East [Jerusalem], the eternal capital of Palestine, and reject any Israeli decisions or measures aimed at Judaising it and consolidating its colonial occupation of the city,” the summit’s closing statement said. The summit comes a year after a similar gathering in Riyadh of the Cairo-based Arab League and the Jeddah-based OIC, during which leaders condemned Israeli actions in Gaza as “barbaric”. However, leaders were unable to agree on action against Israel despite calls to sever economic and diplomatic ties with the country or disrupt its oil supplies.
Saudi armed forces chief visits Iranian counterpart for rare meeting - Saudi Arabia’s top military official has visited Tehran for talks with Iranian officials in a rare high-level meeting since the countries restored ties last year, Iran’s state media reported, General Chief of Staff Fayyad al-Ruwaili of the Saudi armed forces met his Iranian counterpart, General Mohammad Bagheri, at the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Headquarters in Tehran on Sunday, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported. “The development of defence diplomacy and the expansion of bilateral cooperation are among the main topics of this meeting,” it added. The country’s Fars news agency said that Bagheri called for increased security cooperation between the two countries at the meeting. “We would like the Saudi navy to join Iranian naval exercises next year, either as participants or observers,” Fars quoted Bagheri as saying. Separately, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on the phone, Iranian media said. \ Pezeshkian told the crown prince he would not be able to attend a summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Riyadh due to his busy schedule, and would be dispatching the Iranian first vice president as a representative, the Mehr news agency said Tohid Assadi, an Iranian affairs expert, told Al Jazeera that the meeting between the two armed forces chiefs could be considered a step forward in Iran-Saudi relations. “This visit also takes place after the election of [Donald] Trump in the US, who promised peace in [the Middle East]. However, the possibility of tensions ramping up is still here. So Iran and Saudi Arabia are indeed trying to make sure that everything is on the right track,” Assadi said. “They’re trying to build a sort of confidence when it comes to collective action against collective threats,” he added.
UN Committee Says Israel Is Carrying Out a Genocide, HRW Says Israel Is Committing War Crimes - On Thursday, a report published by a special UN committee said Israel’s actions in Gaza are “consistent with the characteristics of genocide,” while Human Rights Watch released a report saying Israel was committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing.The UN report, released by the UN Special Committee to Investigate Israeli Practices, said Israel has used “criminal means” to achieve its military goals, including the use of starvation as a weapon.“This included intentionally causing death, starvation, great suffering, and serious injury, using starvation as a method of warfare, and intentionally directing attacks against civilians,” the report reads.The committee, which was formed in 1968, also discussed the occupied West Bank, where it said Israel has an “apartheid system of injustice.” The report said the “killing of and serious bodily or mental harm caused to Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, are violations under international law.”The HRW report focused on Israel’s forcible displacement of Palestinians in Gaza. “Israeli authorities have caused massive, deliberate forced displacement of Palestinian civilians in Gaza since October 2023 and are responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity,” HRW said. “There is no plausible imperative military reason to justify Israel’s mass displacement of nearly all of Gaza’s population, often multiple times.”
Qatar Says It Suspended Role as Mediator Between Israel and Hamas - Qatar’s Foreign Ministry announced on Saturday that Doha had suspended its role as a mediator between Israel and Hamas, citing the lack of progress in Gaza hostage and ceasefire negotiations. “The State of Qatar notified the parties 10 days ago during the last attempts to reach an agreement, that it would stall its efforts to mediate between Hamas and Israel if an agreement was not reached in that round,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.The statement came in response to reports that Qatar had ended its role as mediator altogether and agreed with a US request to expel Hamas officials who are based in Doha. The Qatari Foreign Ministry said the reports were not accurate.The ministry said that its spokesman, Majed Al-Ansari, stated, “The main goal of the office in Qatar is to be a channel of communication between the concerned parties, and this channel has contributed to achieving a ceasefire in previous stages.”A senior Hamas official told Al Jazeera that they were aware of Qatar suspending its mediation role but said, “No one told us to leave.”The Hamas office in Doha opened in 2012 at the request of the US, which wanted a line of communication with the Palestinian group. Hamas was based in Damascus before that but was expelled for siding against the government in the war in Syria.Qatar has come under pressure from members of the US Congress over Hamas’s presence. But Doha’s mediation led to a successful deal in November 2023 that freed over 100 Israeli hostages in exchange for the release of over 200 Palestinian prisoners.The suspension of Qatar’s mediation means Israel will not be under any pressure to reach a hostage deal as it is carrying out an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza. US officials have blamed Hamas for the lack of another ceasefire deal, but Israeli media reports and comments from Israeli officials have made it clear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was doing everything he could to sabotage an agreement.
Israeli Drone Attack Targets Aid Distribution Center in Syria - The near-daily Israeli airstrikes on unrelated targets in Syria continued today when a multi-rocket drone strike hit a distribution center forhumanitarian aid in the village of Shinshar on the highway between Homs and Damascus.Reports are that the rockets were fired at a convoy of trucks headed to the site. This also lead to initial reports that the target was a “military site linked to Iran,” and while that doesn’t appear to be the case, pro-Israeli social media still insist the site or the trucks are somehow in league with Iran and/or Hezbollah.Shinshar is a relatively small Sunni village, so it wouldn’t make much sense for Shi’ite Hezbollah to set up a military site there. The site’s location does make it ideal for humanitarian aid distribution though. On the highway between the major cities of Homs and Damascus, Shinshar is also right next to the road to Qusayr city, which has a major border crossing. Lebanese refugees probably pass by Shinshar on their way elsewhere.This is the seventh Israeli airstrike in Syria since the start of November. Yesterday Israel attacked apartment buildings in the Damascus suburb of Sayeda Zeinab, killing at least nine civilians and wounding 20 others.That Shi’ite suburb has been hit twice in Israel’s strikes this month, while other attacks have struck other areas, including Qusayr, Aleppo Province, and Idlib. Though Israel has attacked targets in Syria off and on for decades, the number of strikes has dramatically escalated recently.
At Least Nine Civilians Reported Killed in Israeli Attacks on Damascus Apartments - Israel has been attacking targets inside Syria with growing frequency, as their assorted regional wars continue to escalate. On Sunday, Israel again attacked Sayeda Zeinab, the Shi’ite suburb south of the capital of Damascus.While Monday Israel attacked farms on the outskirts of Sayeda Zeinab, today’s attack hit a pair of apartment buildings in the residential areaitself. Hospital sources reported nine civilians were killed and 20 others wounded in the strikes.Details are still emerging on the strikes, and Israel has not commented on them. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights claimed that the apartment buildings were occupied by Hezbollah members and the attacks targeted specific members. That cannot be confirmed, however.Sayeda Zeinab is a hugely important site for Shi’ite Muslims. It is said to be the resting place of Muhammad’s granddaughter, and is a very popular site for Shi’ites to visit on pilgrimage. Attacks on that area will doubtless be seen as a provocation by many.Beyond two strikes on Sayeda Zeinab already this month, Israel has carried out four other strikes, two against the border city of Qusayr and Friday’s airstrikes against Aleppo and Idlib Province. The Qusayr strikes were said to have targeted Hezbollah weapons smuggling operations, while the Aleppo strike targeted a scientific center and they hit Syrian troops in Idlib. The latter attacks don’t necessarily seem to be related to Israel’s ongoing war with Hezbollah.Media reports earlier today indicate that Hezbollah figure Salim Ayyash has been killed in one of the Qusayr airstrikes. Most of the slain and wounded in the Israeli strikes have not been identified. Though Israel has been attacking Syria off and on for decades, the number of airstrikes has been escalated dramatically recently, especially since the invasion of neighboring Lebanon. It has gotten to the point where strikes happen nearly daily.
Israeli Strike Kills 23, Including Seven Children, in North Lebanon Village - Despite international efforts to broker a ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel continues to escalate airstrikes across that nation. Today, one of those strikes hit the northern village of Almat, killing at least 23 people, seven of them identified as children by Lebanon’s Health Ministry.Rescue workers are still in the area looking for more survivors, and the toll has not been finalized. At least six survivors were reported as wounded. Almat is in a region that is strongly majority Maronite Christian, but the village’s own population is majority Shi’ite Muslim.Israel has yet to comment on the strike on the village, but security officials reported to the AFP that an unnamed Hezbollah member was visiting one of the attacked homes. He apparently died of his wounds, along with a lot of other people.Locals, including a man whose home was destroyed today, said civilians displaced from the Baalbek Province had relocated to Almat. It isn’t clear where the displaced will go now, or where the dozens of residents who lost homes in today’s attack will relocate. The Israeli attacks on Sunday have killed at least 38 people in Lebanon. In addition to the 23 killed in Almat, at least 12 were reported killed in the latest strikes on Baalbek. Thus far three were reported slain in smaller strikes elsewhere.
Israel Kills 38, Including Women and Children, In Attacks Across Lebanon - While officials are saying they see “a shot” at an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon, there is no sign of the airstrikes against Lebanese territory slowing down. Over 100 airstrikes have been reported against Lebanon in the past 24 hours.The death toll isn’t finalized, but right now the report is at least 38 people were killed nationwide in the airstrikes, and a number of others were wounded. A substantial number of women and children were among the casualties.The biggest single strike was against a refugee shelter in the village of Joun. Joun is south of Beirut and northwest of Sidon. With people displaced from both areas, there were a substantial number of refugees flocking to the village to escape Israeli attacks. The toll has been steadily rising, and locals are reporting at least 15 were killed and 12 wounded. The killed included eight women and four children.Not far away, another airstrike in the mountainous Aley region killed at least eight other people, according to the Health Ministry. That attack too was reported to be on a house where displaced people had taken refuge.Other strikes were reported further south, in Tefahta and Tyre, and more deadly strikes were reported in the eastern Bekaa Valley. Both of those areas are under daily attack with multiple strikes across the country. Despite over a month of invasion, the Israel war on Hezbollah has not halted the rocket fire headed into Israeli territory. Today, a rocket reportedly scored a “direct hit” on a warehouse in the northern Israeli city of Nahariya, killing two men. Nahariya is the northernmost coastal city in Israel, and only about 6 miles from the Lebanese border.
Hezbollah Claims First Ever Attack On Israeli War Ministry HQ In Tel Aviv -"In Lebanon, there will be no ceasefire and no pause. We will continue to strike Hezbollah with full force until our war objectives are achieved." Those are the words of Israel's new Defense Minister Israel Katz, issued Tuesday. The Biden administration has still been touting that it is working hard on a ceasefire."Israel will not agree to any arrangement that does not secure its right to independently enforce and prevent terrorism, achieve its war objectives in Lebanon, disarm Hezbollah, push them back beyond the Litani River, and allow northern residents to safely return to their homes," he added. The statement was given the same day that Lebanon's government announced that over 100 Israeli airstrikes were recorded on the country in the prior 24 hours. Tuesday night, Lebanese authorities said that 17 people were killed and 21 injured in Israeli airstrikes on the central and southern towns of Baalchmay, Joun, Rumin, and Al-Maali.More were killed in what were widely described as some of the heaviest daytime strikes on Beirut of the war, per the Associated Press: Another Israeli strike on an apartment building east of Beirut killed at least six people. Wael Murtada said the destroyed home belonged to his uncle and that those inside had fled from the Dahiyeh last month. He said three children were among the dead and other people were missing. An Israeli airstrike on a residential building in central Lebanon killed 15 people, including eight women and four children, and wounded at least 12 others, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said. The strike came without warning, and state media said the building was sheltering displaced families. On the Israeli side, rockets from Lebanon have continued into northern towns at unrelenting pace. Reuters has said that about 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers have been killed since the start of the conflict: Since hostilities erupted a year ago, Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,287 people in Lebanon, the majority in the last seven weeks, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Its figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants. Hezbollah attacks have killed about 100 civilians and soldiers in northern Israel, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon over the last year, according to Israel. Hezbollah late on Tuesday said its forces had killed more than 100 Israeli soldiers since Oct. 1. In another important development, Hezbollah on Wednesday claimed its first ever attack on Israel’s Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, which ishome to the Israeli war ministry headquarters. "Hezbollah said the base was the headquarters of the Israeli war ministry and general staff, as well as its war management room and the air force’s war control and supervision authority," Al Jazeera reports. "The group claimed the attack was carried out with a squadron of attack drones and the targets were hit accurately." A translated Hezbollah statement says, "We conducted for the first time, an air attack with a squadron of qualitative suicide drones, on the Kirya base (the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of War and General Staff, the War Management Room, and the Air Force’s Military Control and Oversight Authority) in the city of Tel Aviv, and hit its targets accurately." If true this would mark a significant escalation. Not only would it mean that Israel's most sensitive command infrastructure is exposed, but it would mark a significant failure of Israel's advanced anti-air defense systems.
Israeli drones shooting children in Gaza deliberately 'day after day', UK surgeon tells MPs - A retired NHS surgeon who recently returned from working at a hospital in Gaza said he treated children "day after day after day" who had been deliberately targeted by Israeli drones following bomb attacks.In harrowing testimony to British MPs on Tuesday, Nizam Mamode said of all the conflicts he had worked in, including the genocide in Rwanda, he and other experienced colleagues in Gaza had "never seen anything on this scale ever".He said at least once or twice daily, there were "mass casualty incidents," meaning that 10 to 20 people were killed and up to 40 seriously injured. He estimated that at least 60 percent of the people treated at these times were women and children. "Drones would come down and pick off civilians, children," Mamode told members of the International Development Committee in a hearing focused on the humanitarian situation in Gaza. "This is not an occasional thing. This was day after day after day operating on children who would say, 'I was lying on the ground after a bomb dropped and this quadcopter came down and hovered over me and shot me'." Mamode worked at Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza for a month between August and September for the British charity Medical Aid for Palestine (MAP). He said he spent the entire month in the hospital partly because it was not safe to travel around, but also because Israelbombed MAP’s guest house in southern Gaza in January, an act that Mamode believes was deliberate. "All of those guest houses are in the Israeli army’s computers and are designated safe houses, so my assumption is that it was a deliberate attack and the aim behind it is to discourage aid workers from coming," Mamode said. He ascribed the same aim to five Israeli attacks on UN convoys, including one while he was in Gaza. Labour MP and committee chair Sarah Champion asked Mamode to clarify if he meant that rogue snipers were shooting at the armoured vehicles."No, no," he said. "This is the Israeli army coming up as a unit and deliberately shooting." Mamode said he had been given "very clear instructions" about what to do when travelling in a UN convoy while in Gaza. "The doors are going to be locked when you set off. Do not unlock the doors, if the army shoots at you and order you out. Do not get out of the vehicle," he said he had been told. "This is a UN convoy. It's got UN in big letters on the side and twice a week, it carries about 30 to 40 aid workers from different organisations in and out." Mamode said he had to choose whether to sleep in a hot room inside the hospital or outside on stairs where it was cooler, but where drones "had the ability to pick me off". The 62-year-old surgeon broke down three times during his testimony as he provided detailed accounts of his patients, including an 8-year-old girl who he said was bleeding to death during surgery one Saturday evening."I asked for a swab and they said, 'No more swabs'," he said, momentarily unable to speak. Mamode said lack of medical supplies as a result of Israel not allowing aid into Gaza included sterile gloves, drapes and pain killers, but also basic items like soap and shampoo, leading to unhygienic conditions."I saw I don't know how many wounds with maggots in [them]. One of my colleagues took maggots out of a child’s throat in intensive care," he said. "There were flies in operating theatre landing in wounds."He and his colleagues were particularly disturbed by a pattern of wounds - three to four shots on the left and right side of the chest and also in the groin area - caused by drones."That we thought was prima facie evidence of an autonomous drone or semi-autonomous drone because a human operator would not be able to fire with the degree of accuracy that quickly," Mamode said.But he also said the pellets fired by most drones were also more destructive than bullets which would pierce a body straight through. Instead, the pellets were bouncing around inside bodies.A seven-year-old boy - one of the children who had told Mamode that he had been in a bombing and then deliberately hit by a drone - came into the hospital with his stomach hanging out of his chest, and further injuries to his liver, spleen, bowel and arteries. "He survived that and went out a week later," he said. "Whether he is still alive, I don’t know."When an MP asked Mamode if he had seen Hamas while he was working, the doctor laughed."I am laughing because this was a question I asked when I got there. ‘So is Hamas in the hospital?’ And they just laughed at me," he said. "They said: 'There is no Hamas. There are a few fighters hiding in tunnels. There is no Hamas. There never was any Hamas in the hospital. Everybody hates Hamas'."
More than 100 staff accuse BBC of pro-Israel bias over Gaza genocide -- More than 100 of the British Broadcasting Corporation’s (BBC) staff have accused the state broadcaster of pro-Israel bias in its coverage of the Gaza war, in an open letter first seen by the Independent newspaper. The letter, signed by more than 230 figures in the UK’s media industry, writers and academia, said the public broadcaster had failed to provide “fair and accurate” coverage of the conflict and demanded it “recommit to fairness, accuracy and impartiality”. It was sent to the BBC’s director general, Tim Davie. The 101 BBC staff who signed the letter did so anonymously, with one telling the Independent that “so many of us feel paralysed by levels of fear.” They added: “Colleagues have left the BBC in recent months because they just don’t believe our reporting on Israel and Palestine is honest.” Signatories included Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, a Muslim member of the House of Lords and member of the Conservative Party; historian William Dalrymple; actress Juliet Stevenson; Dr. Catherine Happer, a senior lecturer in sociology and director of media at the University of Glasgow; Rizwana Hamid, director at the Centre for Media Monitoring; broadcaster John Nicolson; and Guardian columnist Owen Jones. They said that the BBC must “robustly challenge Israeli government and military representatives in all interviews,” called on the BBC to report “without fear or favour” and to make new editorial commitments, including “reiterating that Israel does not give external journalists access to Gaza; making it clear when there is insufficient evidence to back up Israeli claims; making clear where Israel is the perpetrator in article headlines; and including regular historical context predating October 2023.” “The consequences of inadequate coverage are significant. Every television report, article and radio interview that has failed to robustly challenge Israeli claims has systematically dehumanised Palestinians,” they said. The signatories gave the example of a “dehumanizing and misleading headline” relating to Israel’s killing of 6-year-old Hind Rajab last January. The BBC headline read, “Hind Rajab, 6, found dead in Gaza days after phone calls for help.” But as the letter explained, “This was not an act of God. The perpetrator, Israel, should have been in the headline, and it should have been clear that she was killed.” Another anonymous BBC staff member told the Independent, “Palestinians are always treated as an unreliable source and we constantly give Israel’s version of events primacy despite the IDF’s (Israel Defense Forces) well-documented track record of lying. “We often seem to prefer to leave Israel out of the headline if at all possible or cast doubt on who could be to blame for airstrikes. “The verification level expected for anything related to Gaza hugely outweighs what is the norm for other countries.”
Putin Tells German Leader That Ukraine Peace Deal Possible - Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and offered to end the war in Ukraine. The Russian leader offered a deal similar to one proposed by Moscow in June.On Friday, Scholz spoke with Putin for the first time in nearly two years.According to the Kremlin, “The Russian president noted that the Russian side has never refused and remains open to the resumption of the negotiations that were interrupted by the Kiev regime.” Adding, “Russia’s proposals are well known and outlined, in particular, in a June speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry.”In that speech, Putin said that if Ukrainian forces withdrew from all Russian annexed territory, adopted a position of neutrality between NATO and Russia, agreed to denazification and demilitarization of the country, and the lifting of all Western sanctions on Moscow, then Russia would bring the war to an end.Scholz’s spokesman said that the German and Russian leaders agreed to remain in contact. The official added that Scholz “condemned the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and called on President Putin to end it and withdraw his troops.” He also told Putin, Berlin maintains “steadfast determination” to support Ukraine for “as long as is necessary.”Throughout the Joe Biden administration, the West has refused to talk with Moscow about core national security issues. The refusal to negotiate throughout 2021, led Putin to invade Ukraine in the beginning of 2022. After the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine, a deal was nearly reached, but Kiev has been pushed away from negotiations by its Western backers.
At least 23 die in besieged town, death toll rises to 382 - Sudan Tribune -At least 23 people died on Tuesday in the besieged Sudanese town of Al-Hilaliya, bringing the total death toll to 382 since the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) imposed a siege more than two weeks ago, according to the Al-Jazirah Conference, a civil society group. Al-Hilaliya, located approximately 70 km (43 miles) northeast of Wad Madani, the capital of Al-Jazirah state, has been under RSF control since the paramilitary group launched a campaign in eastern Al-Jazirah on October 21 following the defection of a local leader to the Sudanese Armed Forces. The Al-Jazirah Conference said in a statement seen by Sudan Tribune that Tuesday’s deaths were “due to complications of poisoning and lack of health care,” including nine women and six children. Local sources cited by the “Nidaa Al-Wasat” group allege that the RSF poisoned the town’s drinking water and distributed food contaminated with urea fertilizer, lead, and mercury to residents. “The gangs and their terrorist leaders are deliberately exterminating tens of thousands of citizens; whoever did not die by their fire died poisoned or hungry at the hands of their mercenaries,” the group stated. A video circulating online shows discoloured drinking water, with a voiceover claiming it had been contaminated with a toxic substance. Sudan Tribune could not independently verify the footage. The Nidaa Al-Wasat warned that deaths in Al-Hilaliya are “accelerating at a terrifying rate” and that those burying the dead are struggling to continue due to hunger and exhaustion. It estimated the death toll to be over 400, including children and the elderly who succumbed to hunger, thirst, and poisoning. The RSF has not commented on the allegations.
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