Federal Reserve's likely slowdown in rate cuts could disappoint borrowers (AP) — Just a few weeks ago, the path ahead for the Federal Reserve looked straightforward: With inflation cooling and the job market slowing, the Fed appeared on track to steadily cut interest rates. In September, its officials predicted that they would reduce their benchmark rate four times next year, on top of three rate cuts this year. Yet that outlook has swiftly changed. Several surprisingly strong economic reports, combined with President-elect Donald Trump’s policy proposals, have led to a decidedly more cautious tone from the Fed that could mean fewer cuts and higher interest rates than had been expected. Fewer rate cuts would likely mean continued high mortgage rates and other borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Auto loans would remain expensive. Small businesses would still face high loan rates.In a speech last week in Dallas, Chair Jerome Powell made clear that the Fed isn’t necessarily inclined to cut rates each time it meets every six weeks.“The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates,” Powell said. “The strength we are currently seeing in the economy gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully.”His comments were widely seen as signaling potentially fewer rate cuts in 2025, a view that sent stock prices falling after they had surged with Trump’s election.Trump has proposed higher tariffs on all imports as well as mass deportations of undocumented immigrants — steps that economists say would worsen inflation. The president-elect has also proposed a menu of tax cuts and deregulation, which might help spur economic growth but would also fan inflation if businesses couldn’t find enough workers to meet increased consumer demand.And recent economic data suggests that inflation pressures could prove more persistent and economic growth more resilient than was thought just a few months ago. At his most recent news conference, Powell suggested that the economy could even accelerate in 2025.Wall Street traders and some economists now envision just two, rather than four, rate cuts next year. And while the Fed will likely cut its key rate when it meets in mid-December, traders foresee a nearly even likelihood that the central bank could leave the rate unchanged. Economists at Bank of America expect annual inflation to remain “stuck” above 2.5%, higher than the Fed’s 2% target level, in part given the likelihood that Trump’s economic proposals, if carried out, would fuel price pressures. The economists now foresee just three rate reductions in the coming months, in December, March and June. And they expect the Fed to stop easing credit once its benchmark rate, now at 4.6%, reaches 3.9%.Krishna Guha, an analyst at investment bank Evercore ISI, wrote last week that, “We think the looming Trump presidency is helping to drive a change in tone from the Fed — including Powell — towards a warier and more hedged posture on the pace and extent of further cuts.”Trump has vowed to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods and a “universal’’ tariff of 10% or 20% on everything else that enters the United States. On Wednesday, a top executive at Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, warned that Trump’s tariff proposals could force the company to raise prices on imported goods.“Tariffs will be inflationary for customers,” John David Rainey, Walmart’s chief financial officer,told The Associated Press. Other consumer goods and retail companies, including Lowe’s, Stanley Black & Decker, and Columbia Sportswear, have issued similar warnings.
Terrible 20Y Auction Has 2nd Biggest Tail, Lowest Directs On Record; Spikes Yields - If anyone was hoping that today's 20Y auction would be even remotely successful, they can not put those to bed: the just concluded sale of $16BN in 20Y paper was a disaster. Pricing at a high yield of 4.680%, the auction tailed the When Issued 4.650% by 3.0bps. Not only was this the third tail in a row, it was the 2nd biggest tail on record. The bid to cover was even worse: sliding from 2.59 to 2.34, the btc was the lowest going back all the way to August 2022. The internals were perhaps the only silver lining to the auction: indirects took down 69.5%, up from 67.9%, below the six auction average of 71.6%. But while Indirect demand was ok, the Direct award plunged to just 7.9% from 17.6%, the lowest on record. This mean that Dealers had to step in big time and so they did, taking down 22.6%, up from 14.5% and the highest since May 2021. In light of just how ugly the auction was, it is probably not a surprise that yields spiked after the result, with the 10Y rising 2bps from 4.39 to 4.41, and hammered risk assets. Commenting on the auction, UBS said that it looks like the prior well-demanded 10y and 30y auctions were just fast money profit-taking on shorts, and that "real money hasn't started to buy bonds." Well, the real money better step in soon or it will get ugly fast.
Investors Are Increasingly Reluctant To Buy US Treasuries Even At These Yields -Yesterday, my colleague wrote that not everything is worth worrying about equally. Financial stability reports always provide plenty of fodder for pessimists; after all, the purpose of these reports is to raise awareness of potential downsides. But not all risks are equally concrete or urgent. Having said that, in its latest Financial Stability Review, the ECB was more blunt about financial risks than in previous years.The central bank is particularly worried about the potential resurgence of the sovereign debt crisis, but unlike the original crisis, France is now being called out as a particular risk: “policy uncertainty [or paralysis], weak fiscal fundamentals in some countries and sluggish potential growth raise concerns about sovereign debt sustainability.” Countries’ debt ratios are high, and this debt increasingly has to be refinanced at higher interest rates. Admittedly, it is somewhat alarming that fiscal metrics haven’t recovered since the pandemic – although ratios have improved over the past few years.The ECB continues that “large primary deficits make it harder to provide additional investment to combat structural challenges, including climate change, defence spending, and low productivity.” It’s hard to argue with this logic. Yet, at the same time, the bold investments required to fix Europe’s low structural growth rate require big government outlays. And, as we’ve noted almost a year ago now, any government will find it hard to gather voters’ support for structural investments and reforms if this means cutting back on social spending.Corporate actions only underscore this need for structural improvement: yesterday, Ford announced it would cut 4,000 European jobs due to sluggish demand for electric vehicles and “fierce competition from China.”At the same time, the outspokenness of the ECB’s Financial Stability Review is perhaps something of a warning to those who are banking on steep rate cuts. Of course, if a crisis were to develop, the ECB may have no other choice but to go back to it’s playbook for most of the 2010s. But the concerns about refinancing risk and higher interest costs imply that the central bank does not anticipate a return to very low rates.Likewise, incoming data underscore that the easing cycle may not be as fast as some expect, and that it may end at a substantially higher rate. Yesterday, the ECB reported that Eurozone negotiated wages rose 5.4% y/y in Q3, pouring a bucket of cold water over any remaining expectations that the central bank may cut by more than 25 basis points in December. A rebound had been expected after the 3.5% print in the second quarter but the re-acceleration was significantly stronger than both we and the ECB had anticipated.A large part of the acceleration can be attributed to strong wage increases in Germany. In Q3, collective agreements led to an 8.8% y/y increase in German wages. Stripping out one-off payments, German wages clocked in at 5.7%; That’s a sharp acceleration from 4% in Q2. We don’t believe that this acceleration will be sustained. The recent IG Metall deal, for example, suggests more moderate wage growth in the coming quarters. Nonetheless, data continue to underscore that wage pressures are receding only gradually.Relatively sticky wages in other countries are also pointing in that direction. Dutch employers’ association AWVN tracked collectively agreed wages in Q3 at 4.3%, while Italian and Spanish wages appear to have stabilized just above the 3%-mark. On the very other end of the spectrum, French wages are still trending down, from 2.8% in Q2 to 2.7%. This will likely converge to further to the inflation rate in the coming quarters.So, all in all, these data should not prevent the ECB from another 25bp cut in December, but they do underscore the need for caution as the ECB navigates heightened uncertainty about growth and lingering inflation risks.
Report: Biden Allows Ukraine To Strike Russia With Long-Range US Missiles - The New York Times reported on Sunday that President Biden had authorized Ukraine’s use of long-range US-provided missiles in strikes on Russian territory, an escalation Moscow has made clear risks nuclear war. US officials told the paper that Ukraine can now use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 190 miles, to strike Russian territory. The ATACMS are fired by US-made multiple rocket launch systems, including the HIMARS. Ukraine can only fire the HIMARS with coordinates provided by or confirmed by the US and its allies, meaning the US will now directly support strikes deep inside Russia.The US officials said the ATACMS will likely initially be used to hit Russian troops fighting against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. Ukraine and the US have also said North Korean troops are deployed in Kursk. The US has said the North Korean troops are engaged in combat, but that hasn’t been confirmed by Moscow.Earlier this year, President Biden gave Ukraine the greenlight to strike Russian border regions with US-provided weapons, including shorter-range rockets fired by the HIMARS. A few months later, Ukraine launched its invasion of Kursk, and Ukrainian officials began pushing hard for the US to support longer-range strikes inside Russia.In response to those calls and comments from Western officials supporting the idea, Russian President Vladimir Putin said if NATO supported long-range strikes in Russia, it would put the Western military alliance “at war with Russia.”Putin then ordered changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine that lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Under the new doctrine, an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear armed state that was supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack.The Kremlin said the changes to the nuclear doctrine were meant as a message to the West. “This is a message that warns these countries of the consequences should they participate in an attack on our country by various means, not necessarily nuclear,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
In major escalation, Biden authorizes long-range strikes inside Russia - With less than two months remaining in his term, US President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use US long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia, crossing a “red line” that Russian President Vladimir Putin has said could lead to direct war between Russia and NATO. Biden has also authorized the long-range missiles to be used against North Korean troops allegedly deployed inside Russia, in what would be the first major attack using US weapons on North Korean troops since the end of the Korean War in 1953. In coordinated statements to the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press and Reuters, the Biden administration said on Sunday that it would allow Ukraine to use the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike Russian and North Korean troops inside of Russia’s Kursk region, parts of which are occupied by Ukraine. US officials made clear, however, that this announcement clears the path for American, British and French long-range weapons to be used to strike Russian cities even farther away from the front, including potentially the Russian capital. The Biden administration has long been preparing to announce plans to carry out long-range strikes deep inside Russia, with the Guardian reporting in September that “the decision had already been made to allow Ukraine to use [UK] Storm Shadow cruise missiles on targets inside Russia.” At the time, a decision was made to wait to make the announcement until after the election. The White House believed that a vote for Vice President Kamala Harris would create a mandate for the massive escalation of the war against Russia. The election resulted, however, in a victory for former President Donald Trump, who demagogically postured as an opponent of escalation in Ukraine. On Wednesday, Biden met with Trump at the White House, where both men promised a “smooth transition” between the two administrations. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan indicated ahead of the meeting that a major subject of discussion would be the Ukraine war. “President Biden will have the opportunity over the next 70 days to make the case to Congress and the incoming administration that the United States should not walk away from Ukraine, that walking away from Ukraine means more instability in Europe.” Biden certainly provided a detailed report on the planned escalation during the meeting with Trump, and there is no reason to believe that Trump raised objections. The official position of the Biden White House before the election, outlined in an October 23 press briefing by White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre, is that President-elect Trump is a “fascist” who would be, as Jean-Pierre put it, “a dictator on day one.” But the White House and the Democratic Party have dropped all opposition to the fascist policies of the new administration, with Biden vowing to do “everything we can to make sure you’re accommodated, what you need.” In reality, the Biden administration has only one concern: ensuring that the United States’ wars, including first and foremost against Russia, continue “smoothly.” To that end, the Biden administration is seeking to create “facts on the ground” leading to a major escalation of the war before Trump takes office. Last Sunday, the White House authorized the deployment of US military contractors to Ukraine to maintain US weapons, effectively creating a tripwire in the event that US military contractors are killed in Russian airstrikes, which could be used as a pretext to massively expand US involvement in the war. The major escalation of US involvement comes against the backdrop of a deepening crisis for the Ukrainian military. The Russian military, allegedly with the assistance of North Korean troops, is making significant advances on three fronts, while the Ukrainian military is suffering a major recruitment crisis amid soaring desertions. It is impossible to overstate the reckless and escalatory implications of Biden’s announcement this weekend. In late September, in response to reports that the US would soon allow long-range strikes on Russian cities, Putin outlined proposed changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Putin said that “aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear-weapon state, should be considered as a joint attack on the Russian Federation.” He continued, “We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus.”
Kremlin Reiterates Putin's View on US-Supported Long-Range Strikes in Russia - In response to reports of President Biden authorizing long-range Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with US missiles, the Kremlin pointed to a warning previously made by Russian President Vladimir Putin. In September, Putin was asked about the possibility of NATO supporting long-range strikes on Russian territory and said it would mean the US and European NATO countries were “at war with Russia.” He added that if that’s “the case, then taking into account the change of nature of the conflict, we will take the appropriate decisions based on the threats that we will face.” The New York Times and several other media outlets reported on Sunday that Biden gave Ukraine the greenlight to use US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), which have a range of up to 190 miles, in strikes on Russia. ATACMS are fired by US-provided HIMARS rocket systems, which require intelligence from the US to be fired, which means the US will be directly supporting strikes deep inside Russia.So far, the reports haven’t been officially confirmed by the US or Ukraine, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted in his nightly address on Sunday that the missile strikes could start soon.“Today, there’s a lot of talk in the media about us receiving permission for respective actions,” Zelensky said. “But strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves. They certainly will.” In his response on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said if the reports are true, it would mean “a qualitatively new round of escalation of tensions and a qualitatively new situation in terms of the involvement of the United States in this conflict.”In other comments, Peskov said the escalation means more Western involvement in the war because “targeting, other maintenance is not done by Ukrainian servicemen, it is done by military specialists from these very Western countries.”Other reports have said that the UK and France will allow Ukraine to use Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, which have a range of 155 miles, in strikes on Russia. Earlier this year, a German military leak revealed that British soldiers are “on the ground” in Ukraine helping Ukrainian forces fire the Storm Shadow missiles.The Telegraph recently reported that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were plotting to hamper the incoming Trump administration’s ability to wind down US support for the Ukraine proxy war. The report said they planned to pressure Biden to sign off on the long-range strikes.The US media reports said Biden’s decision to authorize the long-range strikes was a response to North Korean troops allegedly entering the fighting against the invading Ukrainian force in Russia’s Kursk Oblast, a claim that hasn’t been confirmed by Moscow. US officials said the strikes are expected to be focused in Kursk but could also expand to other areas in Russia.Putin has also made clear that US-supported long-range strikes in Russia risk nuclear war by ordering changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Under the new doctrine, an attack on Russia by a non-nuclear armed state that was supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack.
Russia warns U.S. is adding fuel to fire with long-range missile decision - The Kremlin has lashed back against a White House decision to now allow Ukraine to use U.S.-made long-range weapons for limited strikes inside Russian territory.The decision, reported by NBC News, marks a major reversal in Washington policy a mere two months before the mandate expiry of President Joe Biden, who has steered U.S. engagement in the Ukraine conflict since Russia's wholescale invasion in February 2022.Previously, the Biden administration had limited the deployment of American-made long-range arsenal to the Ukrainian battlefield, but had green lit Kyiv's use of U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, HIMARS, in cross-border attacks to defend Ukraine.The latest authorization follows the deployment of North Korean troops to support Moscow in the stagnating conflict, along with what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyyqualified as "one of the largest Russian strikes" against his country over the weekend."It is obvious that the outgoing administration in Washington intends to take steps to continue adding fuel to the fire and continue to provoke tension around this conflict," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said earlier Monday, according to Reuters."If such a decision was really formulated and communicated to the Kyiv regime, then, of course, this is a qualitatively new round of tension and a qualitatively new situation from the point of view of the US involvement in this conflict," he added, in Google-translated comments reported by Russian state news agency Ria Novosti.Ukraine depends on Western allies for military and humanitarian aid, including the provision of weapons — which NATO members have largely supplied for defensive purposes on Ukrainian grounds, amid fears of further war escalation and Russian retaliation. Speaking to journalists on Sept. 12, Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin had warned that a then-potential decision on behalf of any NATO country to allow Ukraine the use of long-range weapons against targets on Russian soil would amount to direct participation in the war."The issue is not about allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not. The issue is about making a decision: NATO countries directly participate in the military conflict or not. If this decision is made, it will mean nothing other than the direct participation of NATO countries — the United States, European countries — in the war in Ukraine," Putin said at the time, according to Russian state news agency Tass.Yet analysts at the Institute for the Study of War warn that Washington's limited authorization could prove insufficient to materially alter the course on the battlefield."The partial lifting of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided long-range weapons against military objects within Kursk Oblast will not completely deprive Russian forces of their sanctuary in Russian territory, as hundreds of military objects remain within ATACMS range in other Russian border regions,"they said in a note, with reference to the U.S. long-range Army Tactical Missile System.They added that "Russian forces will benefit from any partial sanctuary if Western states continue to impose restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself and that the US should allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate military targets within Russia's operational and deep-rear within range of US-provided weapons – not just those in Kursk Oblast."
Ukraine Fires US-Provided ATACMS Into Russia in Major Escalation - Ukraine has fired US-provided Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) into Russia’s Bryansk Oblast, marking a major escalation of the conflict that Russia has made clear risks nuclear war.The escalation came as Russian President Vladimir Putin formalized changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine that lowered the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, a step he took in direct response to President Biden authorizing Ukraine to use ATACMS, which have a range of about 190 miles, in strikes deep inside Russia.The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement that Ukraine fired six ATACMS into Bryansk. “At 3:25 am this morning, the enemy struck a site on the territory of the Bryansk Region with six ballistic missiles. According to confirmed data, US-made ATACMS tactical missiles were used. As a result of an anti-missile battle, five missiles were shot down, and one was damaged by crews of S-400 and Pantsir missile defense systems,” the ministry said, according to TASS.The ministry said missile debris fell on the territory of a military site, causing a fire, but no damage or casualties were reported. Russian Foreign Sergey Lavrov said the attack shows that the West seeks escalation, pointing to the fact that Ukraine cannot fire ATACMS without US-provided intelligence.“The fact that multiple ATACMS were used last night against the Bryansk Region signals that they want escalation. You see, it is impossible to use these high-tech missiles without the Americans, and Putin has repeatedly said this,” Lavrov said.Lavrov also said that he hopes Ukraine’s Western backers read Russia’snew nuclear doctrine, which considers an attack by a non-nuclear armed state that’s supported by a nuclear-armed power as a joint attack. The doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack against Russia or Belarus if it is deemed a critical threat to Russia’s sovereignty.The nuclear doctrine states that Russia’s nuclear deterrence is aimed at “a potential adversary, which may encompass individual countries and military alliances (blocs, unions) that regard Russia as a potential enemy and possess nuclear and/or other weapons of mass destruction, or have substantial combat capabilities of general-purpose forces.”Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the current deputy chair of Russia’s Security Council, wrote on X that the new nuclear doctrine means Russia can use Weapons of Mass Destruction against Ukraine and NATO.“Russia’s new nuclear doctrine means NATO missiles fired against our country could be deemed an attack by the bloc on Russia. Russia could retaliate with WMD against Kiev and key NATO facilities, wherever they’re located. That means World War III,” Medvedev wrote on X in English.The New York Times first reported on Sunday that President Biden had authorized Ukraine to use ATACMS in strikes on Russian territory even though US officials acknowledged the escalation wasn’t expected to alter the course of the war.
Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response - Moscow signaled to the West that it's ready for a nuclear confrontation after Ukraine was given permission to attack Russian territory — and appeared to quickly act on that greenlight — using U.S.-made long-range missiles.Kyiv appeared to waste little time after reportedly being given the go-ahead by Washington on Sunday to use U.S.-made ATACMS missiles against specific targets. Ukrainian news outlets reported early Tuesday that the missiles had been used to attack a Russian military facility in the Bryansk border region.Russia then confirmed the attack, with the Ministry of Defense stating that Ukrainian forces had "struck a facility in [the] Bryansk region" using six ballistic, American-made ATACMS missiles. The ministry claimed air defense missile systems had shot down five of the missiles, and damaged another."Its fragments fell on the technical territory of a military facility in the Bryansk region, causing a fire that was quickly extinguished. There were no casualties or damage," the ministry said. CNBC was unable to independently verify the reports and Ukraine's leadership has not yet commented on the attack. The Kyiv Post news outlet cited a national security official as confirming the strike in Bryansk had been carried out, although he did not indicate which weapons had been used.Biden's Ukraine policy shift a symbolic response to North Korean involvement: Brookings' O'HanlonRussia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, responded to the attack, accusing the West of wanting to escalate the conflict."The fact that ATACMS were used repeatedly tonight in the Bryansk region is, of course, a signal that they [in the West] want escalation. And without the Americans, it is impossible to use these high-tech missiles," Lavrov said at a news conference at the G20 summit, according to comments reported by Tass and translated by Google.The Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against allowing Ukraine to use its long-range weapons to attack Russia directly. Moscow upped the ante Tuesday as Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree approving its updated nuclear doctrine, shifting the parameters on when Russia can use nuclear weapons.The updated document now states that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, if it's supported by a nuclear power, will be considered as a joint attack.The doctrine also stated that Russia may use nuclear weapons in the event of a critical threat to its sovereignty and territorial integrity (and that of its ally, Belarus) and that the launch of ballistic missiles against Russia would be seen among the conditions that could warrant a response using nuclear weapons.
Ukraine's ATACMS Strike On Russia Comes After Putin Lowers Threshold For Nukes About a day after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use the long-range US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System to strike deeper into Russian territory, a new report suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have hit a military installation in the western Bryansk region. This comes after Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia's nuclear weapons doctrine was changed and signed by President Vladimir Putin, indicating "the use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response." "For the first time, Ukraine's Defense Forces struck Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles," RBC Ukraine news agency reported Tuesday. RBC Ukraine said the military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region was successfully hit with ATACMS. This location was about 115 kilometers (71 miles) from the border with Ukraine. ATACMS flew more than 140 km and hit a target in the Bryansk region, russia. This means that the strike permit applies not only to Kurshchyna, as the Western media wrote about it. This attack also showed that the air defense of the russian Federation will have big problems with…pic.twitter.com/0Y1PU8g1Nt "Indeed, for the first time, we used ATACMS to strike Russian territory. The strike was carried out against a facility in the Bryansk region, and it was successfully hit," one source told the local media outlet. Separately, media outlet Kyiv Post stated the 67th arsenal of the Main Directorate of the Missile and Artillery Directorate of Russia was hit. The facility reportedly had large stockpiles of anti-aircraft missiles, munitions for multiple launch rocket systems, artillery ammunition, and guided bombs, much of which was supplied by North Korea.Kyiv Post noted: Russian media sources, including residents on social networks, reported explosions coming from within the Karachev district, and suggesting that a "military base" was being attacked. The Russian Astra Telegram channel shared videos of the incident, while local reports said that there had been strikes on this arsenal in late 2023 and again in June and October this year. Bloomberg revealed more details about the attack: Russian Defense Ministry confirmed Ukrainian armed forces launched a strike with US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles at a military object in Bryansk region on the border with Ukraine, Interfax reports.
Violating His Own Policy, Biden OKs Antipersonnel Mines For Ukraine -- Determined to leave an even bloodier legacy, President Biden has violated his own policy and approved the shipment of antipersonnel mines to Ukraine, two US officials have told the Washington Post. The move -- which threatens to cause civilian injuries and deaths even after the war ends -- comes in the face of months of Russian battlefield success in which its army has posted the fastest pace of territorial gains since 2022. The land-mine approval is Biden's second intensification of US military support in just the last few days: Acting very much like a man whose life in politics and life on Earth are both rapidly nearing their ends, Biden over the weekend approved Ukraine's use of long-range, US-supplied, ATACMS missiles against targets deep inside Russia. Brushing aside concerns that such an escalation would nudge the world's foremost nuclear powers closer to World War III, Ukraine wasted no time flexing its new freedom, striking a Russian military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region -- about 71 miles from the Ukraine border. In 2022, Biden restored an Obama-era policy that bars America's provision of antipersonnel mines anywhere other than the Korean Peninsula. Biden had condemned then-President Trump as being "reckless" in nixing Obama's policy, saying "It will put more civilians at risk of being injured by unexploded mines, and is unnecessary from a military perspective.”
Bracing For Retaliation, US Shuts Embassy In Kiev Over Air Attack Risk -- Washington appears fully aware it has poked the Russian bear, after President Biden greenlighted Ukraine striking Russian territory with long-range missiles. US officials have warned Wednesday that "potential significant air attack" on Kiev is likely coming, and have announced the closure of the US Embassy in the capital "out of an abundance of caution". This follows immediately on the heels of Ukrainian forces having struck an arms depot inside Russia with U.S.-supplied weapons, specifically the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), on Tuesday. "Embassy employees are being instructed to shelter in place," a new alert on the embassy website said. "The U.S. Embassy recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced." Embassy diplomats and all staff are being asked to observe the following precautions:
- Monitor local media for updates
- Identify shelter locations in advance of any air alert
- Immediately take shelter if an air alert is announced
- Follow the directions of Ukrainian officials and first responders in the event of an emergency
The embassy closure is also happening the day after Putin signed a decree which updates and expands Russia's nuclear doctrine, which effectively lowers the threshold for nuclear weapons use. "As we said earlier this month, we were not surprised by Russia’s announcement that it would update its nuclear doctrine; Russia had been signaling its intent to update its doctrine for several weeks," the White House National Security Council responded in a statement.Other Western embassies have also shuttered their operations amid air raid warnings in Kiev and other regions, including Italy, Spain, and Greece.Al Jazeera notes that "Germany’s embassy in Kyiv remains open in a limited capacity and can still be contacted by German nationals who are in the country, a German Foreign Ministry official has said.""We are in constant contact with our colleagues on the ground so that we can take appropriate measures if the situation changes," the official said.
As Biden Uses Long-Range Strikes into Russia to Create Problems for Trump, What Else Might Happen With Ukraine When Trump Takes Over? -- Yves Smith -- While the US election was underway, Russian officials, when asked, repeatedly said that it would not matter much to them who won, since they believed it will not change outcomes in Ukraine and probably not US-Russia relations generally. However, angry and panicked European leader have made clear they think otherwise. And Biden petulantly and recklessly over the weekend authorizing long-range missile strikes into Russia, which does cross a genuine Russian red line and puts the US directly at war with Russia, does make a difference even if that move will not stop or even slow Russia from prevailing in Ukraine. Russia has said if the US took that step, that American assets all over the world were targets. Given how long this threat has been in play, Russia probably has a very good idea of where some punches could do the most damage. The long-range missiles authorization illustrates that the steady Russian attrition and occasional very stern warnings had managed to keep the US and Ukraine from doing anything too reckless (if you omit the US destroying the Nord Stream pipeline and Ukraine, the Kharkova dam, which in the long term are actually detrimental to their own interests). The prospect of Trump accelerating the end of the war, as we are seeing, has focused a lot of minds and is producing some flailing about. Nevertheless, Russia remains in control of how far it takes the conflict, in terms of territorial occupation. Could Trump, or different EU conduct as a result of Trump, wind up changing Russian calculations?If Trump is unwilling or unable to get the EU to support Ukraine neutrality, as in “No NATO evah in Ukraine” (and that failure still seems baked in), Russia still faces dilemma of having to deal with the problem of a generally unfriendly western Ukraine at the end of the war. Taking it means much higher subordination and reconstruction costs, as well as potentially alienating some of Russia’s economic allies in BRICS; leaving western Ukraine to its own devices assures it becoming NATO-lite and among other things, NATO putting missiles there, if nothing else, out of spite.However, as we will discuss, Russia might be able to improve the optics with comrades-in-all-but-arms by explicitly drawing its occupation model from the Allies with Germany at the end of World War II.1Later We’ll discuss one path for ending the war that the Trump Administration might wind up opening up, but we think the odds of it coming about are exceedingly low. One solution the problem of “How to credibly insure Ukraine neutrality in the face of persistent Collective West bad faith?” would be for Turkiye and Hungary to provide security guarantees. Turkiye is colorable due to having the biggest NATO forces near the theater; Hungary could be included or volunteer by virtue of its president Orban having discussed peace prospects with Zelensky, Putin, Trump, and Xi. Either state could veto a future effort to get a rump Ukraine into NATO.Having two NATO members guarantee Ukraine’s neutrality means they would be expected (ideally required) to vote against any Ukraine ascension to NATO.We’ll recap below the near-impossibility of a negotiated outcome; even diplomacy advocate Alexander Mercouris has concluded that Russia will impose terms. But if there were any way for Russia not to have to occupy Ukraine or leave Western Ukraine as a festering wound, it would be a tidier solution all around.3 Let’s first consider the US long range missiles escalation and then take a broader look. The New York Times broke the story and recites the bizarre justification that the (almost certainly a Ukraine propaganda creation) participation of North Korean forces in the Russian defense of Kursk amounts to an escalation. The story admits that this move won’t do much to help Ukraine: While the officials said they do not expect the shift to fundamentally alter the course of the war, one of the goals of the policy change, they said, is to send a message to the North Koreans that their forces are vulnerable and that they should not send more of them. Remember, Ukraine depends on the US to operate the missiles, here ATACMS, and for targeting, so the Russians are correct to depict these attacks as made by the US. Scott Ritter unpacks the implications. Do click through to read the entire tweet:2 Odds favor that the Biden efforts at Trump sabotage don’t make much difference in the end, or may even work to some advantage to Russia (as in justifying tit for tat retaliation, say in the Middle East). But Russia has no obvious answers to what to do with Ukraine, even with its position continuing to improve as it further weakens Ukraine, US and NATO combat capabilities. Without belaboring the history, the US is strategically overextended. Its underestimation of Russia led to the US enlisting allies, including ones not even in the theater, to send weapons to Ukraine, resulting in stocks all among them being reduced to low levels. Continuing supplies to Ukraine are now coming from globally inadequate new production, plus forays into couch cushions turning up some quarters. Current conventional wisdom is that one of two things is likely to exhaust Ukraine even before the firepower gap with Russia makes continued fighting impossible. The New York Times reported at the start of November that the Pentagon view was that Ukraine has enough manpower to carry on only for another six to twelve months. Power shortages over the winter could represent a second breaking point, not just for the military but for government operations and civil society. La Niña has the potential to bring a cold winter to Europe. Russia has just launched another punishing round of electric system strikes. And when a grid is damaged, more demand (here from cold weather) can also produce additional breakage. Trump’s open antipathy toward NATO, or at least the US spending much to support it, compounds the difficulty of keeping Project Ukraine going. Some have suggested that one way for Trump to deliver on his “I’ll end the war in one day/I’ll end it before I take office” is to halt US involvement, as in no more US funding and weapons deliveries. The war would be over as far as US voters are concerned. And NATO has admitted that it would have trouble carrying on if the US cut the air supply. Both US Russia hawks and European governments clearly fear Trump will walk away from the Ukraine conflict, witness the scramble to “Trump proof” it. But this comes when European economies are weak and government spending for social safety nets is already under pressure. It’s not hard to argue that the German government fell due to a fight over Ukraine spending.4 Finance Minister Christian Lindner refused to go along with prime minister Olaf Scholz’s pressure for more ambitious spending, which Linder said was a demand to pause the constitutional “debt brake”. Scholz sacked Linder and Linder pulled his party out of the coalition, producing in not too short order the scheduling of new elections. However, Russia still faces the same dilemma. Putin, out of his general caution, would almost certainly prefer not to take any more of Ukraine than necessary. However, Russia’s paramount goal is securing Ukraine’s neutrality. Leaving anything more than an itty rump Ukraine will almost assure European meddling, if nothing else out of wounded pride. And if the Democrats come back into power in 2028, they would join in. So a lasting resolution would seem to require Russia to subjugate all of Ukraine, even though that would contradict one of Putin’s earlier pledges, that Russia would not go where it was not wanted. Of course, depending on how things break, such as a government collapse, Russia could position itself as stabilizing an otherwise chaotic and lawless situation. Regardless, Russia would want to move into any vacuum if at all possible.
It's My World War III Party And I'll Cry If I Want To - To some degree, it’s expected that an outgoing administration would try to get as many of their policy initiatives through before the next administration takes hold of the reins on January 20.But what can be said about the Biden administration's sudden urge to approve Ukraine's use of U.S.-provided missiles for deeper strikes into Russia, relaxing restrictions on long-range weapon deployment?Previously, Biden firmly resisted such approval, intent on avoiding any escalation he believed might pull the U.S. and NATO into direct confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia. Now, all of a sudden, it seems like a good idea?Just when you thought the Biden administration couldn’t leave one more flaming brown paper bag of dogsh*t on the steps of the White House for President Trump…Among all of the failed policy ideas over the last four years, our foreign policy and our southern border have been the two most dangerous blind spots for our country, in my opinion.Not only have we actively pursued a strategy of avoiding peace talks between Ukraine and Russia—and not only are there semi-decent arguments for the United States being the catalyst for the Russia-Ukraine war floating around—but escalating tensions with just two months to go before Donald Trump takes office is a new kind of incompetence.Following Biden’s approval of such missiles to be used, on Tuesday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered his country’s threshold for nuclear weapon use, allowing for a potential nuclear response even to conventional attacks supported by nuclear powers <cough> Biden’s new long-range missile approval <cough>.Also on Tuesday, Russia claimed to have intercepted five of six U.S.-made ATACMS missiles fired by Ukraine at a military site in the Bryansk region, while Ukraine reported hitting an ammunition depot, according to ABC News.Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called the strike an escalation: “If the long-range missiles are used from the territory of Ukraine against the Russian territory, it will mean that they are controlled by American military experts and we will view that as a qualitatively new phase of the Western war against Russia and respond accordingly.”
Obama's Ukraine Cover Up -- Last week we wrote about the central role Obama played in establishing the Russiagate Hoax. This week we’re going to take a closer look at why Obama was so involved. What drove him to push a hoax that had been ostensibly put into place by the Clinton campaign? Many are aware of Biden’s entanglements in Ukraine but most are unaware of Obama’s implicit involvement. For some time now it's been our working theory that Russiagate originated, at least in part, as the result of what Joe Biden was doing in Ukraine - and as a result of Obama’s knowledge of Biden’s actions.Recall that Biden’s involvement in Ukraine traces back to at least early 2014 when he was pulled into the U.S. overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically-held elections by Victoria Nuland, the assistant secretary for European and Eurasian affairs in the Obama State Department.In November 2013, Ukraine’s president Yanukovych turned down a U.S.-backed trade deal with the European Union in favor of an emergency bailout from Russia, a decision which was understandable from Ukraine’s perspective but one which Nuland and her state department colleagues found deeply upsetting.When the European Union pursued a diplomatic route at resolving the impasse by proposing a power sharing agreement, Nuland was quick to veto the idea, telling Pyatt in a leaked phone call, “[expletive] the EU.” During that same call, Nuland discussed her plans for the ouster of Yanukovych and the installation of opposition leader Arseniy Yatsenyuk as prime minister.Towards the end of their conversation, Nuland noted that Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan had informed her that “you need Biden,” and she concluded by telling Pyatt that “Biden’s willing.”Biden was effectively appointed as the Obama administration’s point man on Ukraine in February 2014. On Feb. 22, 2014, just as Nuland had planned, Yanukovych was removed as president of Ukraine and, three days later, Yatsenyuk, the candidate favored by Nuland, wasinstalled as prime minister. In other words, the U.S. government had effectively enabled a coup that ousted a democratically elected leader and replaced him with their own candidate. The US-led ouster of Yanukovich also had other internal repercussions, most notably the outbreak of an eight-year civil war between western Ukraine and the Russian-speaking Donbass region of Ukraine.
Biden angers Kremlin, Trump allies with Ukraine missiles decision -- The Biden administration is apparently calling Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s bluff by allowing Ukraine to strike far into Russian territory with U.S. weapons systems, a move that has drawn the ire of President-elect Trump’s allies. The lifting of a restriction on the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) will reportedly apply initially to the Russian region of Kursk, where Ukrainian forces have held territory since an August surprise, and where some 10,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to bolster Russian counter-attacks. Biden officials on Monday would not publicly confirm the new policy, but pointed to North Korea’s involvement as an escalation by Moscow. Prominent figures in Trump’s orbit suggested the move was meant to complicate the incoming president’s push to end the war. Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), Trump’s pick for national security adviser, told Fox News on Monday that Biden’s ATACMS lift is “another step up the escalation ladder.” “And nobody knows where this is going,” he said. “Trump is talking grand strategy here. How do we get both sides to the table to end this war, what’s the framework for the deal, and who’s sitting at that table.” “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” Donald Trump Jr. wrote on X Sunday, responding to reports about the policy change. The Kremlin on Monday accused Biden of adding “fuel to the fire” in Ukraine, and pointed to previous remarks from Putin, who warned in September that any nuclear-armed nation approving the use of such missiles in Russia would be declaring war with his country. “This would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict,” Putin said in September. Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh dismissed concerns of escalation, pointing to North Korean troop deployments as already a major increase in hostilities. “North Korea entering this war makes them co-belligerents with Russia, and we’re talking about North Korean soldiers being used to take sovereign territory, Ukraine’s sovereign territory,” she told reporters in a Monday briefing. John Hardie, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Russia program, said lifting the restriction now will give Ukraine a better hand in eventual negotiations.ATACMS are long-range missiles that can be fired from systems like the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and reach targets up to 190 miles away. They are much more accurate and lethal than the long-range drones that Ukraine has used to target deep into Russia. David Silbey, a military historian and professor at Cornell University, said Putin may escalate his attacks on Ukrainian cities in response, but doubted he would use a nuclear weapon. “If he used a nuclear weapon, he would get one back, “ Silbey said. “Even if he thinks it’s not likely that the U.S. will nuke Russia over a nuclear weapon being used in Ukraine, not likely is not the same thing as absolutely not. And he doesn’t want to die in a conflagration any more than previous Russian leaders.” Putin has threatened nuclear weapons several times since the war began in 2022, drawing red lines that Ukraine’s western backers have crossed. Ukraine lobbied hard for months to get the U.S. to lift a restriction on using the ATACMS to strike deep inside of Russia, but Washington refused, arguing it would have no practical effect, and that Ukraine already has long-range drones.
Europe Braces For War As Biden Shovels More Fuel On The Fire -- As the mainstream press in the United States continues to obsess with imaginary threats from Trump’s army of “fascist” supporters, the Europeans are focused on the very real possibility that the Biden–Harris administration is going to start World War III on its way out the door. All over the continent, military and civilian authorities are working hard on civil defense preparations and planning for armed conflict with Russia. Sweden is sending out five million pamphlets to its citizens telling them how to prepare. The pamphlets include instructions on stockpiling food and finding shelter during a nuclear attack. Excerpts from the document include:“An insecure world requires preparedness. The military threat to Sweden has increased and we must prepare for the worst - an armed attack.”“The global security situation increases the risks that nuclear weapons could be used. In the event of an attack with nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons, take cover in the same way as in an air attack.”“Shelter provides the best protection. After a couple of days, the radiation has decreased significantly.” “If Sweden is attacked by another country, we will never give up. All information to the effect that resistance is to cease is false.”The Swedes are not alone. Norway and Finland are doing the same thing, preparing their populations for nuclear war. Finland has launched a new website advising people on how to prepare, and the Norwegians recently mailed out their own booklet giving people tips on how to prepare for the end of the world. The Norwegian booklet includes advice on how citizens should prepare themselves to live self-sufficiently for a week, with a list of long-life items to keep such as cans of beans, energy bars and pasta, and medicines in case of a nuclear event.The Finnish website includes detailed instructions on how Finns should react in the event of war:“The warning signal is a regularly rising and falling sound that lasts for one minute used to warn people of an immediate outdoor hazard.In the event of a war, the signal is used to alert people about incidents as well as air strikes, for example.In case of a military attack, you must immediately seek shelter in the nearest civil defence shelter or the best available shelter.”
Russia Says US Missile Defense Base in Poland Is a Potential Target - Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday that a controversial US missile defense base in Poland is a potential target of the Russian military, comments that come amid soaring tensions as the US just authorized Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range NATO missiles.“Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry,” Zakharova said.The Aegis Ashore anti-ballistic missile system in Poland has long been a security concern for Russia as its Mark-41 launchers are capable of fitting nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 miles. A land-based version of the Tomahawks was previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019.The US just recently opened the Aegis Ashore base in Poland, and NATO formally took control of it on Thursday. “The integration of the Aegis Ashore system into NATO’s defensive network underscores our collective commitment to ensuring the security of all Allies,” US Air Force Gen. James Hecker, the head of NATO’s Allied Air Command, said at a ceremony formalizing NATO control of the base.Zakharova said the establishment of the base follows “a series of deeply destabilizing actions by the Americans and their North Atlantic allies in the strategic sphere” and said the move “aligns with the longstanding and destructive practice of advancing NATO’s military infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders.”Russian President Vladimir Putin also said on Thursday that Russia has the right to strike the military facilities of countries that are supplying Ukraine with the missiles. “We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” he said.
Report: US and European Officials Discussed Giving Ukraine Nuclear Weapons - According to the New York Times, US and European officials have discussed a range of options they believe will deter Russia from taking more Ukrainian territory, including providing Kiev with nuclear weapons. The outlet reports that Western officials believe the Kremlin will not significantly escalate the war before Donald Trump is sworn in as President in January. Following the election of Trump earlier this month, the US and its NATO allies began taking steps to rush weapons to Ukraine and give Kiev the ability to strike targets inside Russian territory with long-range weapons. American officials who were briefed on the intelligence community’s assessments told the Times that weapons will not alter the challenging situation that Kiev is currently facing. “US spy agencies have assessed that speeding up the provisions of weapons, ammunition and matériel for Ukraine will do little to change the course of the war in the short term,” the Times reports. Desperate to bolster Ukraine’s standing in the war before the transition of power on January 20, the Biden administration is looking at a range of serious escalations. “US and European officials are discussing deterrence as a possible security guarantee for Ukraine, such as stockpiling a conventional arsenal sufficient to strike a punishing blow if Russia violates a cease-fire.” The article continues, “Several officials even suggested that Mr. Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were taken from it after the fall of the Soviet Union.” According to some officials who spoke with the Times, the administration believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t significantly escalate the war until Trump returns to the Oval Office. “But the escalation risk of allowing Ukraine to strike Russia with US-supplied weaponry has diminished with the election of Mr. Trump,” adding,” Biden administration officials believe, calculating that Putin of Russia knows he has to wait only two months for the new administration.” That assessment is based on the belief that Trump and his incoming Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, will take a more favorable stance on Russia. However, Trump proved to be a Russia-hawk during his first administration by ramping up sanctions on Moscow, providing lethal arms to Ukraine, and expelling a large number of Russian diplomats from the US.
Donald Trump Jr. accuses Biden administration of seeking 'World War 3' -- Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of President-elect Trump, claimed the Biden administration is trying to cause “World War 3” by helping Ukraine in its war with Russia. “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” Trump Jr. posted on the social platform X. “Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be dammed!!! Imbeciles!”He posted just after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use U.S.-supplied long-range missiles inside Russia.About 10,000 North Korean troops are aiding Russia in its war and expect to fight in Ukraine in the “next several weeks.”Biden’s postelection authorization renewed the question of whether Trump’s administration would be as supportive of Ukraine as Biden’s has been.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told a Ukrainian media outlet in an interview published Saturday that he thinks the Russia-Ukraine war will end “faster” under Trump. Over the weekend, Russia launched a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine in what is being seen as the largest barrage in recent months, officials said.
Biden Rushes $275M More In Weapons To Ukraine Before Trump Enters Office - There are just two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office, and Ukraine hawks are feeling the pressure. For them, apparently it's time to flood Zelensky's coffers with as much money as possible ahead of the possibility that Trump may cut off the tap, after having on the campaign trail called Zelensky "the greatest salesman on earth". "The Pentagon will send Ukraine at least $275 million in new weapons, US officials said Tuesday, as the Biden administration rushes to do as much as it can to help Kyiv fight back against Russia in the remaining two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office," The Associated Press reports Tuesday afternoon. And alarmingly, the same report observes that "In rapid succession this week, President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the authority to fire longer-range missiles deeper into Russia and then Russian President Vladimir Putin formally lowered the threshold for using nuclear weapons."Contents or details of the new aid package have yet been made public, but there could be more missiles and equipment supporting the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), which was used by the Ukrainians Tuesday against Russian territory, marking a new escalation.The geopolitical analysis blog Moon of Alabama has zeroed in on why US authorization for ATACMS attacks on Russian soil is such a big deal:We do not know yet if the new authorized use for ATACMS munition on targets within Russia is only relevant for the cluster ammunition missile type or for high explosive ATACMS missiles with a reach of 300 kilometer.However, the Russian President Vladimir Putin has correctly pointed out that ANY use of ATACMS requires the involvement of NATO (U.S/UK) assets for acquiring the targeting data and for planning and programming the missile's mission.Any use of ATACMS onto Russian proper is thus an act of war by NATO against the Russian Federation. The Russian response to such will be appropriate but may well surface in a theater far from Ukraine.Indeed President Putin and Kremlin officials have echoed precisely this point of view of late, which is also why Putin signed into effect a new expansion of Russia's nuclear doctrine.According to the newly expanded doctrine, in the event Western powers assist another nation in a major attack on Russian soil, those same Western powers will also be held responsible. This can trigger Russian nuclear launch. But so far Russian officials have made it clear that they do not anticipate nuclear war. Clearly the Kremlin is awaiting patiently the return of Donald Trump to the White House, hoping this will stop NATO's steady escalation of involvement in the war on Ukraine's behalf. Meanwhile, with all that money for Ukraine floating around, and constant transfers of arms, this exchange is important to recall... Stewart uses some bad language here, but consider for a moment her attitude. This is what elitism looks like. This is what people on on the left and right are upset about. Elites who laugh at millions of dollars being wasted, precisely because they can't be found...pic.twitter.com/GnBeONkXDC
Biden Administration Moves To Forgive $4.7 Billion in Loans to Ukraine - The State Department announced on Wednesday that it has moved to forgive about $4.7 billion in US loans to Ukraine as the Biden administration is trying to spend as much as it can on Ukraine during the transition period.The $61 billion in aid for Ukraine that was authorized by Congress earlier this year included about $9.4 billion in economic and budgetary aid provided in the form of loans, an idea first promoted by President-elect Donald Trump. However, the law allows the president to forgive the loans if Congress doesn’t stop him.After November 15, President Biden was allowed to forgive the first half of the loan. “We have taken the step that was outlined in the law to cancel those loans,” said State Department spokesman Matt Miller. On January 1, 2026, Trump will be able to forgive the second half of the loan if he chooses to do so and Congress allows it.Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) attempted to block Biden from forgiving the $4.7 billion by introducing a resolution, but the effort failed in a vote of 37-61. “Today, US Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) will force a vote in the U.S. Senate on his joint resolution of disapproval (S.J.Res.117) to stop the Biden Administration from making Ukraine’s debt the responsibility of the American people,” Paul’s office said in a press release on Wednesday.“The Biden Administration’s proposal shifts the burden of funding Ukraine’s small businesses, farmers, and corrupt bureaucrats onto the backs of hardworking Americans, who are already suffering during a time of high inflation,” the press release said.Paul said that any senators who vote against his resolution “will be sending a message to all Americans that they clearly prioritize Ukraine over the people they represent and are for putting America last.”
US vetoes UN resolution demanding Israel-Hamas cease-fire - The U.S. on Wednesday voted against a United Nations Security Council resolution that demanded an immediate cease-fire in Gaza, citing the lack of a path for releasing hostages held by Hamas as the reason.The U.S. was the only nation in the 15-member Security Council to vote against the resolution but was able to veto it because of permanent member status. Robert Wood, the U.S. alternate representative for special political affairs at the U.N., said after the vote that the resolution would have vindicated Hamas, and he called attention to the roughly 100 hostages still held by the Palestinian militant group. “We will not forget them,” he said. Wood added that the U.S. “will continue to pursue a diplomatic solution that brings peace, security and freedom to Palestinians in Gaza,” and faulted Hamas for abandoning a cease-fire and hostage release deal with Israel. “Some members of this council don’t seem to want to confront the reality that today, it is not Israel standing in the way of a cease-fire and hostage release deal, it is Hamas,” he said, accusing some council members of failing to reach a consensus on a more favorable resolution. The proposal, put forward by the Security Council’s 10 elected members — a coalition led currently by Guyana — called for an immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire and demanded the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, Guyana’s U.N. representative, said the resolution “responded to critical issues” in Gaza, where more than 43,000 Palestinians have died amid the more than 13-month war and many are struggling to access basic food and necessities. “Many have said that the ongoing annihilation of the Palestinian people is a major stain on our collective human conscience,” she said. “Today the council had the opportunity to begin erasing that stain by demanding an immediate, unconditional and permanent cease-fire. “But despite our best efforts and the almost universal support to go in that direction, the council was again hamstrung by a veto,” Rodrigues-Birkett added. The resolution is the 12th one put in front of the council, with only four adopted, since the war broke out between Israel and Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, when the Palestinian militant group invaded southern Israel and killed some 1,200 people and took around 250 hostages. The Biden administration has continued to support Israel, diplomatically and with weapons, despite international pressure to end the war and even after the U.S. acknowledged Israeli officials have more to do to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza. The support has also continued after the presidential election, in which Vice President Harris lost to President-elect Trump.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has also faced internal discord over his war stance. Earlier this month, he fired his defense minister, who had argued that Israel achieved many of its war aims against Hamas and could live with a hostage release and cease-fire deal. Netanyahu has been accused of prolonging the war for his own political survival, and he has close relations with Trump, who may give Israel more leeway in the war.
US Is Lone Veto Of Gaza Ceasefire Call At UN, Citing It Neglects Hostages - The United States has again used its veto, blocking the fourth UN Security Council resolution on Gaza since the war began. The comprehensive resolution called for an "immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire." UN News writes: United States vetoes Security Council draft resolution that would have demanded an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, and the release of all hostages RESULT: In Favor: 14 Against: 1 (US) Abstain: 0 The text of the draft resolution did not link or condition the call for permanent ceasefire on the release on the hostages held by Hamas. The US has identified this as the reason for the veto.A US official ahead of the vote made clear that the US will only support a resolution explicitly calling for the release of all remaining hostages as a key part of the ceasefire."As we stated many times before, we just can’t support an unconditional ceasefire that does not call for the immediate release of hostages," the official said.The US official also alleged that Russia and China were conspiring to isolate the US, pushing the vote toward forcing Washington into being the lone veto:Some of the council’s 10 elected members (E10) were more interested in bringing about a US veto than compromising on the resolution, the official said, accusing Russia and China of encouraging those members.“China kept demanding ‘stronger language’ and Russia appeared to be pulling strings with various [elected] 10 members,” the official said. “This really does undercut the narrative that this was an organic reflection of the E10 and there’s some sense that some E10 members regret that those responsible for the drafting allowed the process to be manipulated for what we consider to be cynical purposes.”The draft resolution not only demanded "an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire" but also the "immediate access [to] humanitarian assistance." The resolution mentioned the release of all hostages and prisoners, but failed to specifically condition it as part of a ceasefire. Israel has long stood accused of blocking the free flow of humanitarian aid into the Strip. More recently, Palestinian groups looted some 100 aid convoy trucks in the south of the Strip.
International Criminal Court Issues Arrest Warrants for Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Former Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant by Yves Smith - The International Criminal Court decision to issue arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant is an important indicator of the solidification of international opinion against the openly genocidal state of Israel. At the end of the post, we have extracted the key section of the ICC’s press release. It describes how the basis for the administering the warrants is the systematic starvation, cutting off of electricity, and withholding of medical supplies to the population. Note that his site described Israel’s conduct as genocide on October 21, 2023, long before it was fashionable to call out Israel’s crime against humanity for what they are, based on Israel’s decision to cut off electricity to Gaza permanently. Two Palestinian leaders have also been targeted by the ICC prosecutor for arrest warrants, Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, but both are dead. The ICC did issue a warrant for Hamas military leader Mohammed Dief even though Israel maintains they have killed him. The ICC’s raison de’etre is to step in when government legal systems are too corrupt or too decrepit to prosecute major crimes by officials. So these arrest warrants are a stern rebuke to the entire state going whole hog for the murder of Palestinian civilians. In fact, the notion that the ICC existed only to go after what the Collective West deemed to be dirtbag leaders was the argument the US used to try to bully the ICC prosecutor: The US harassment was likely the big factor in the ICC taking so long after the prosecutor’s request to issue the warrants (by contrast, it oddly took only a month in the case of the Vladimir Putin, for the crime of removing children from of a war zone, despite the absence of complaints by parents). The Financial Times, which has the ICC action as its lead story, suggests that it proves that Israel is losing even official support outside the US:The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant “for crimes against humanity and war crimes”.The move is a dramatic escalation of legal proceedings over Israel’s offensive in Gaza, and marks the first time that the court, which was set up in 2002, has issued a warrant for a western-backed leader. It means that the ICC’s 124 member states — which include most European and Latin American countries and many in Africa and Asia — would be obliged to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant if they entered their territory. But the court has no means of enforcing the warrants if they do not.The practical impact of this warrant is limited. Many UN members, notably the US, Russia, and Israel, are not parties to the ICC and thus do not enforce ICC warrants (see here for a long discussion, using Israel and Palestine as the focus, about the ICC’s jurisdiction over non-party states). One wonders if any member of the EU (all are members of the ICC) save Ireland would arrest Bibi if, say, his plane landed unexpectedly there. The typical intelligence-insulting bluster by Netanyahu, which will be take seriously by too many in the US and is already being amplified in the UK, suggest the UK wound not enforce the warrants.Note that the Jerusalem Post’s headline was more “fair and balanced” than the Guardian’s: But when the ICC prosecutor first applied for the warrants against Netanyahu and Gallant, some EU members said they would enforce them: Germany joins France and Norway. Netanyahu will be arrested if he sets foot in Germany. Germany would "of course" execute a potential ICC arrest warrant against Israel's Netanyahu, the govt spokesman says.According to the Financial Times today: … the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said the warrants were not political, and that the court’s decision should be respected and implemented. France reaffirms its commitment: South Africa quickly praised the ICC action. From Inside Politics: “These actions mark a significant step towards justice for crimes against humanity and war crimes in Palestine,” the International Relations and Cooperation Department said on Thursday.“South Africa reaffirms its commitment to international law and urges all state parties to act in accordance with their obligations in the Rome Statute. We call on the global community to uphold the rule of law and ensure accountability for human rights violations.” Unfortunately, though this is yet another confirmation that Israel is a rogue state, only the US, by cutting off arms, or the Axis of Resistance can stop the slaughter of Palestinians and increasingly, Lebanese. And while the latter’s noose is slowly tightening, the pace is not fast enough to save many lives.
US threatens to sanction International Criminal Court over war crimes charges against Netanyahu On Thursday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) formally charged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant with war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Israeli genocide in Gaza. The court charged Netanyahu and Gallant with “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.” In May, ICC prosecutor Karim Khan accused the Israeli leaders of presiding over the “murder” and “extermination” of Palestinians, as part of a “common plan to use starvation as a method of war and other acts of violence against the Gazan civilian population as a means to … collectively punish the civilian population of Gaza.” In its document charging Netanyahu and Gallant, the ICC accepted the allegations by Khan that Israel is using starvation as a weapon of war and declared that the “alleged crimes against humanity were part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza.” The charges against Netanyahu and Gallant are fully justified. But Israel is acting at the behest of US imperialism, together with the other imperialist powers, in its genocidal war against the people of Gaza, which is part of the drive by the imperialist powers to reorganize the Middle East under their own domination. The response of US officials expresses the acknowledgement that they are guilty of aiding and supporting all the crimes with which Netanyahu is charged. Republican Senator Tom Cotton responded to the ruling by making a veiled threat to attack the Netherlands or any country that cooperates with the warrants. “Woe to him and anyone who tries to enforce these outlaw warrants. Let me give them all a friendly reminder: The American law on the ICC is known as The Hague Invasion Act for a reason. Think about it.” Senator Lindsay Graham wrote in a statement on X: The Court’s actions against Israel sets the foundation for the ICC to come after the United States one day. We must respond forcefully to the Court for our own good. In another tweet, he added, “If you aid and abet the ICC after their action against the State of Israel, you can expect consequences from the United States.” A joint statement by senators from both parties, including Graham and Democrat John Fetterman, stated, “Acquiescing to the Court’s jurisdiction over Israel is to agree, in theory, they have jurisdiction over the United States.” US President Joe Biden responded to the ICC’s arrest warrants by declaring, “The ICC issuance of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders is outrageous. Let me be clear once again: Whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence—none—between Israel and Hamas. We will always stand with Israel against threats to its security.” Asked to comment on Graham’s calls to sanction the ICC, White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said that the US expressed openness to the proposal. “We are discussing … with partners, including Israel” the possibility of sanctioning the ICC, she said. The United States, the world’s leading perpetrator of war crimes, has never ratified the Rome Statute that established the International Criminal Court and does not recognize its authority to prosecute US war crimes or those of Israel, its proxy in the Middle East. On September 2, 2020, the United States government imposed sanctions on ICC prosecutor Fatou Bensouda in response to an investigation by the court into US war crimes in Afghanistan. Despite this, the Biden administration publicly welcomed a war crimes investigation by the ICC against Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine.
Four US Senators Say They Will Vote To Block Weapons Shipments to Israel - Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) led a press conference with three other senators on Tuesday to discuss their plans to vote in support of resolutions to block several weapons sales to Israel.Sanders said the Senate will vote on Wednesday on three separate resolutions he introduced, known as joint resolutions of disapproval, that seek to block the sales of 120mm tank rounds, 120mm mortar rounds, and JDAM bomb kits. Sanders was joined by Senators Peter Welch (D-VT), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), who have co-sponsored the resolutions. Making his case for the resolutions, Sanders pointed to US foreign assistance laws that prohibit military aid to countries that intentionally block humanitarian aid and commit human rights violations using US weapons.“Israel is clearly in violation of these laws,” Sanders said. “Under these circumstances, it is illegal for the US government to provide them with more offensive weaponry. Joint resolutions of disapproval are Congress’s tool to enforce those laws.”Sanders noted that the levels of aid entering the Gaza Strip are at the lowest point yet. “The result — and let’s be very clear about this — the result is that many, many thousands of children are facing malnutrition and starvation,” he said.Sen. Welch said what’s “unfolding before our very eyes right now is mass starvation and the spread of disease. Is the United States and its foreign policy… forced to be blind to the suffering before our very eyes?”The resolutions don’t have a chance of passing, but the vote will provide a record of senators who support continuing to arm Israel amid its genocidal war. The vote will come as Israel is openly conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign in northern Gaza, which has involved a complete siege on the cities of Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and Jabalia, where no aid has entered since early October.Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the incoming Senate majority leader, took aim at Sanders’ resolutions in comments on Tuesday where he vowed the Senate will make clear the US “stands squarely” behind Israel when Republicans takeover in six weeks.“For the past year plus, Democrats have struggled to support our ally Israel,” Thune said. “For example, we are expecting tomorrow Sen. Sanders to offer a resolution denying lethal aid to Israel. The refusal to have our allies’ back and the refusal to call out antisemitism in our own country has consequences.”Thune said that he will prioritize introducing a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) and other pro-Israel legislation. “So to our allies in Israel and to the Jewish people around the world, my message to you is this: reinforcements are on the way.”
19 Senators back limiting offensive weapons to Israel in key vote --The Senate on Wednesday failed to pass three resolutions that would have limited offensive arms to Israel, but 19 senators supported the initiative, showing there is growing resistance to the Israeli war against Hamas in Gaza. The 19 senators who voted to block some offensive arms sales was higher than the 11 who joined a similar effort in January that was focused on conditioning weapons to Israel. The resolutions Wednesday were introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who has led calls on Capitol Hill to end unconditional arms support for Israel, along with Sens. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.). Besides those lawmakers, several other Democrats, including Sens. Chris Van Hollen (Md.) and Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), were expected to vote for the resolutions.Though the resolutions were expected to fail, they also served as a symbolic message supporting restraining Israel in the Senate.The Wednesday vote comes as President-elect Trump is set to take office in January and is expected to more closely embrace Israel.Democrats, led by the Biden administration, have largely rallied around Israel throughout the war, although President Biden and the party have called for more aid to get into Gaza and for the Israeli military to limit civilian deaths throughout the 13-month war.The White House came out publicly against the resolutions before the vote. “We strongly oppose this resolution and we have made our position clear to interested Senators,” said a spokesperson with the White House National Security Council. The Joint Resolutions of Disapproval, Congress’ formal mechanism to limit arms transfers, would have prohibited the U.S. from providing future transfers of 120mm tank rounds, 120mm High Explosive mortar rounds and Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAMs), which are guidance kits attached to bombs.Both the House and Senate have to pass the resolutions to block a transfer. The resolution on tank rounds saw 18 votes in favor, the resolution on mortar rounds saw 19 votes in support and the resolution on JDAMs earned 17 votes.Sanders in September also introduced three other joint resolutions that would block JDAM receivers, certain tactical vehicles and the sale of 50 new F-15IA aircraft and associated parts. Those did not come up for a vote on Wednesday.Sanders led a major public campaign ahead of the vote, writing a Washington Post opinion piece that said Israel has violated the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 and the Arms Export Control Act because the Israeli military has violated international human rights.The senator also pointed to Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act, which prohibits the transfer of arms to a country inhibiting U.S. humanitarian assistance efforts. The U.S. has been working to get aid into Gaza, where Palestinians are struggling to access food and water. In his opinion piece, Sanders pointed to the widespread destruction in Gaza, including on housing and universities, and the roughly two million who have been displaced. Pushing back against critics who say restraining Israel would only bolster Iran, which backs Hamas, Sanders said, “You do not effectively combat terrorism by starving thousands of innocent children.”
Senate Votes Down Bernie Sanders's Efforts To Block Weapons Deals for Israel - The Senate on Wednesday night voted down resolutions introduced by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to block several weapons transfers to Israel, but the effort received more support from Democrats than expected.Eighteen senators — Sanders, Sen. Angus King (I-ME), and 16 Democrats — voted in favor of the first resolution that would have blocked the transfer of 120mm tank shells to Israel. Seventy-nine senators voted against the resolution, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), who opposes US military aid to Ukraine and previously joined efforts against weapons transfers to Saudi Arabia that supported its brutal war in Yemen.The second resolution to block 120mm mortar rounds for Israel failed in a vote of 19-78. The third resolution, which would have blocked a JDAM bomb kit shipment to Israel, failed in a vote of 17-80.The White House came out strongly against the resolutions ahead of the vote, putting out talking points that claimed any senator who voted to block the arms shipments to Israel would be helping Hamas.“Disapproving arms purchases for Israel at this moment would … put wind in the sails of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas at the worst possible moment,” the Biden administration said.A day earlier, Sanders and his cosponsors — Peter Welch (D-VT), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), and Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) — gave a press conferencewhere they explained their reasoning for wanting to block the arms transfers, pointing to the starvation of Palestinians and atrocities being committed with US weapons.Sanders said US military aid to Israel was illegal due to US foreign assistance laws that prohibit providing weapons to countries that intentionally block aid or commit human rights violations.“Israel is clearly in violation of these laws,” Sanders said. “Under these circumstances, it is illegal for the US government to provide them with more offensive weaponry. Joint resolutions of disapproval are Congress’s tool to enforce those laws.”
US Senate overwhelmingly rejects resolutions to block weapons shipments to Israel --On Wednesday, the US Senate affirmed its support for the Israeli genocide in Gaza, which has killed and injured over 300,000 people since October 7, 2023, and roundly rejected a series of resolutions aimed at blocking a fraction of a $20 billion war package the Biden administration approved for Israel in August. The resolutions, spearheaded by Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, are known as the Joint Resolutions of Disapproval, or JRDs. Wednesday’s vote, while a foregone conclusion, was the first time the US Senate has ever considered blocking arms transfers to Israel in over 76 years of political, military and economic support. Not a single one of the resolutions garnered more than 19 votes, with a majority of Democratic senators and every single Republican voting overwhelmingly against all of the resolutions presented. Underscoring the Democratic Party’s resolute support for ethnic cleansing, the day before the votes were held the Biden administration sent out a memorandum urging senators not to block the weapons sales, with the implication that voting in favor of the resolutions was tantamount to supporting terrorists. “Disapproving arms purchases for Israel at this moment would … put wind in the sails of Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas at the worst possible moment,” the document read, according to a report from the Huffington Post. Refuting months of lies from Biden, Harris and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez that the Democratic administration was working “tirelessly” towards a ceasefire, the document continued, “Now is the time to focus pressure on Hamas to release the hostages and stop the war. … Cutting off arms from Israel would put this goal even further out of reach and prolong the war, not shorten it.” Under the Arms Export Control Act, any US senator can submit a JRD to block the transfer of already approved weapons sales if the weapons are being sent to a country that is engaged in war crimes or blocking the transfer of US humanitarian aid to civilians. Earlier this year, in between campaigning for Vice President Kamala Harris and defending President Joe Biden’s record of war and austerity, Sanders began the process of issuing the JRDs. He was supported in these efforts by Democratic Senators Jeff Merkley (Oregon), Chris Van Hollen (Maryland) and Peter Welch (Vermont). Prior to the vote, all of the senators backing the JRDs, including Sanders, were very clear that the resolutions would not prevent the transfer of so-called “defensive” weapons systems to Israel, such as air-to-air missiles for the Iron Dome and David’s Sling missile systems. Similarly, all of the senators, including Sanders, who spoke in favor of the resolutions made clear their support for the Israeli government and its alleged “right to defend” itself from Hamas. “As I have said many many times,” Sanders stated, “Israel had the absolute right to respond to that horrific Hamas attack as any other country would. I don’t think anyone here in the United States Senate disagrees with that.” Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont., on Capitol Hill in Washington. [AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib] According to the United Nations, since 1947, Israel has illegally annexed and occupied Palestinian lands, forfeiting any right to “self-defense.”
House Passes Bill Targeting Pro-Palestine Non-Profits - On Thursday, the House passed a bill that would give the Treasury Department the power to revoke the tax-exempt status of any non-profit it deems a “terrorist supporting organization,” legislation that’s designed to target pro-Palestine and antiwar groups and charities.According to Middle East Eye, a coalition of more than 300 civil liberties groups had sent a letter to lawmakers urging them to vote against the bill. The letter said the legislation would “grant the executive branch extraordinary power to investigate, harass, and effectively dismantle any non-profit organization – including news outlets, universities, and civil liberties organizations like ours.” A coalition of 55 centrist and progressive Jewish organizations also came out strongly against the bill, saying, “No individual, including a Treasury secretary, should be given nearly unfettered power to remove an organization’s tax-exempt status.” Other Jewish organizations, including the Anti-Defamation League and pro-Israel lobby groups such as AIPAC, support the bill.The Stop Terror-Financing and Tax Penalties on American Hostages Actwould also provide tax-exempt status and relief for American hostages being held in other countries. It passed through the House in a vote of 219-184, with only 15 Democrats voting in favor of the bill and just one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), voting against it.It’s unclear if the bill will make it through the Senate, but it will almost certainly be introduced in the new Congress, where Republicans will have a majority in both chambers. President-elect Donald Trump also vowed to crack down on pro-Palestine protesters at college campuses while on the campaign trail.“Here is what I will do to defeat antisemitism and defend our Jewish citizens in America: My first week back in the Oval Office, my Administration will inform every college president that if you do not end antisemitic propaganda they will lose their accreditation and federal taxpayer support,” Trump said back in September.
Today In Imperial Recklessness And Insanity --Caitlin Johnstone --The International Criminal Court has formally issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity. No such arrest warrants were issued for President Biden or any of the other western officials who’ve been backing Israel’s genocidal atrocities, which is a bit like a judge issuing a warrant for a mass murderer but not for the guy who gave him the gun and stood next to him handing him ammunition and drove the getaway car and lied to the police to cover up the crime. Nothing will come of this new development because it is completely unenforcible and international law is only as real as the US empire agrees to pretend it is, but it is a significant step in the deterioration of international consensus on Israel as the entire world watches the Zionist regime commit atrocity after atrocity right out in the open.Predictably, Benjamin Netanyahu has responded to this decision by shrieking about antisemitism and calling the ICC’s move “a modern Dreyfus trial”. He is doing this because he does not have anything resembling a real argument in his defense, and neither does anyone else.We saw this illustrated in a statement from Senator Tom Cotton, who proclaimed that the US would invade The Hague if the ICC tries to enforce its arrest warrants.“The ICC is a kangaroo court and Karim Khan is a deranged fanatic,” Cotton said. “Woe to him and anyone who tries to enforce these outlaw warrants. Let me give them all a friendly reminder: the American law on the ICC is known as The Hague Invasion Act for a reason. Think about it.” This is as psychotic a public statement as anything you’ll see from the most far-right extremists in the Knesset. The United States is run by demented zealots with nukes, just like Israel. The “Hague Invasion Act”, formally known as the American Service-Members’ Protection Act, is a US federal law passed during the warmongering frenzy of the early Bush administration which authorizes the president to use “all means necessary and appropriate to bring about the release of any U.S. or allied personnel being detained or imprisoned by, on behalf of, or at the request of the International Criminal Court.” That “or allied personnel” bit is why Cotton is able to cite this law in reference to an arrest warrant for Israelis. Speaking of Israel and US senators, a bill by Bernie Sanders to block a shipment of tank shells to Israel was just killed in the Senate by a vote of 18 to 79. Sanders framed the bill as an effort to restrict “the sale of offensive arms to Israel”, making a distinction from “defensive” arms like the Iron Dome, which is absurd and obfuscatory to begin with. All arms to Israel are offensive rather than defensive in nature, in that they are all used to help Israel murder people without experiencing the deterrence they would receive from a retaliatory response. There’s a reason body armor is regulated in a way that’s similar to firearms; it’s because someone who wants to commit a violent crime can wear a bulletproof vest while doing so to ensure that they can perpetrate the crime without being stopped by police. That’s exactly how Israel uses its so-called “defensive” weaponry. And speaking of progressive US lawmakers taking feeble stands on Israel, congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has come under fire for voting to support House Resolution 1449, a bill which purports to simply denounce antisemitism but in reality promotes the false conflation of antisemitic hate speech with speech that is critical of Israel. Progressive congresswoman Ilhan Omar, who voted against the bill, said in a statement that she did so because “the bill endorses the harmful definition of IHRA that dangerously conflates legitimate criticism of Israel to antisemitism and further harms our ability to address antisemitism.” Everywhere you look it’s powerful criminals getting away with far too much while the people who are supposed to be resisting them do far too little. This happens as Russia hits Ukraine with a new type of hypersonic missile, which Putin went out of his way to mention could easily have been equipped with a nuclear warhead. This attack was a warning to Ukraine for using long-range missiles supplied by the US and UK to strike targets inside Russia, and occurs as Moscow revises its nuclear doctrine lowering the threshold for when nuclear weapons may be used. This is unsustainable. It cannot continue. One way or the other, all this madness is going to come to an end.
Rare Israeli Attack On Syria's Palmyra Launched From US-Controlled Airspace - Huge Israeli airstrikes rocked the outskirts of the central Syrian city of Palmyra on Wednesday, with regional reports saying the attacks were launched by Israeli jets utilizing US-controlled airspace over Al-Tanf military base in eastern Syria. "Israeli warplanes launched a number of missiles from the airspace of the [US] base in the Al-Tanf area on the Syrian–Iraqi–Jordanian border, in the far southeastern countryside of Homs, targeting the vicinity of the city of Palmyra," Sputnik’s correspondent reported.Israeli attacks on Palmyra are rare, if not unheard of, given how deep into central Syria and the eastern desert the town lies. Al-Tanf base is located a little over 200km from Palmyra. The border base has been occupied by US forces for many years now.Syrian state SANA has cited a large casualty count, reporting at least 36 dead and over 50 wounded. SANA reports, "At approximately 1:30 p.m. today, the Israeli enemy launched an air attack from the direction of al-Tanf area, targeting a number of buildings in Palmyra City in the Syrian Desert, led to the martyrdom of 36 people, the injury of more than 50 others, and significant material damage to the buildings and the surrounding area."Palmyra before the war attracted tourists from across the globe as it is known for its ancient Roman ruins, and is a UNESCO World Heritage site.The iconic ruins and temples were partially damaged when the remote outpost was overrun by the Islamic State terror group in 2015, and many Syrian Army personnel were killed trying to defend it.Syrian government forces with the help of Russian aerial support were able to get Palmyra back from ISIS by March 2016. Russia and Syria have long accused American forces based out of Al-Tanf of training terrorists and facilitating their movements, in order to keep up pressure on Damascus.
US warns Iraq that Israel may attack ‘soon’ -- The US has told the Iraqi government that it has exhausted its efforts to put pressure on Israel not to attack Iraqi territory, Ma’an news agency has reported. Washington noted predictions that Israel may launch strikes “soon” against Iraqi resistance forces. Iraqi security sources told Saudi channel Al-Hadath that Iraq has taken all necessary measures to respond to potential Israeli air raids. Sources also stated that Israeli air strikes are imminent unless the Iraqi government succeeds in preventing attacks by Iraqi resistance forces against Israel. Recent months have seen a sharp increase in operations carried out by the Iraqi resistance against the occupation state. Drone attacks have surged, rising from just six in August to 31 in September, and as many as 90 in October. Since the beginning of this month, at least 65 launches have been recorded, with most threats intercepted by the Israeli occupation forces. While these attacks currently pose more of an operational nuisance than a strategic threat, there is concern that the situation could escalate further.
Iran Denies That Its UN Ambassador Met With Elon Musk - On Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied a report published by The New York Times that said Iran’s ambassador to the UN held a meeting with Elon Musk about the incoming Trump administration.“This (reported meeting) was a fabricated story by American media, and the motives behind this can also be speculated,” Araghchi said. “In my opinion, the American media’s fabrication about a meeting between Elon Musk and Iran’s representative is a form of testing the waters to see if the ground for such a move exists.”Araghchi said Iran is looking for the incoming administration “to clarify its policies, and based on that, we will adjust our own policies.” He added that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei hadn’t given permission for such a meeting.The Times report, which cited anonymous Iranian officials, said the meeting was about how to defuse tensions between the US and Iran. The Iranian sources described the meeting as “positive” and “good news.” However, based on President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet picks, all signs indicate the incoming administration will take a hardline on Iran. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), who was nominated for Secretary of State, and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL), the next National Security Advisor, have called for a return to “maximum pressure,” a reference to the first Trump administration’s Iran policy, which involved tearing up the 2015 nuclear deal, imposing crippling sanctions, and assassinating Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani. President Biden essentially continued the maximum pressure campaign, but Iran was able to export oil to markets in Asia where buyers aren’t afraid of US sanctions. The Financial Times reported on Saturday that the incoming administration plans to try to increase sanctions to “bankrupt” Iran to bring Tehran to the table for talks, a strategy that failed during the previous Trump administration.
US, Japan, and Australia Agree To Increase Trilateral Exercises - The US, Japan, and Australia agreed on Sunday to increase trilateral military cooperation as Washington is working to boost alliances in the region as part of its plans to prepare for a future war with China.Defense ministers from the three countries, including US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, met in Darwin, Australia, which is home to a US military base that’s being expanded to house US B-52 long-range bombers.The defense ministers announced the three militaries will begin conducting trilateral amphibious military drills starting in 2025 during Australia’s biennial Talisman Sabre, which has gotten much bigger in recent years.Australia will also send troops to participate in Orient Shield, an annual training exercise that takes place in Japan and involves US and Japanese troops. Last year, a new US-backed military pact between Australia and Japan that makes it easier for the two countries to deploy troops to each other’s territory came into effect. The US, Japan, and Australia also announced their goal is to conduct a trilateral live-fire exercise during Talisman Sabre by 2027. “The inaugural trilateral regional air and missile defense live-fire event at Exercise Talisman Sabre 2027 will be a key milestone,” the ministers said. The US military is openly preparing for a future direct conflict with China despite the risk of nuclear war, and alliance building is key to those plans. Earlier this year, the US, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines conducted military drills together in the South China Sea for the first time.
US, Philippines Sign New Intelligence and Weapons Technology Sharing Agreement - On Monday, the US and the Philippines took steps to boost their military alliance by signing a new intelligence and weapons technology sharing agreement and starting the construction of a new joint command center in the Philippines.US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signed the intelligence deal, the General Security of Military Information Agreement, with his Philippine counterpart, Defense Minister Gilberto Teodoro, during a visit to Manila. The Philippine Defense Minister said the agreement will “allow the Philippines access to higher capabilities and big-ticket items from the United States.” Details of the agreement weren’t released, but unnamed Philippine officials told the AP it would allow the US to provide the Philippines with higher-level intelligence and more sophisticated weapons, including missile systems. It will also give the Philippine military access to US drone and surveillance data. Austin and Teodoro also attended a groundbreaking ceremony for a new Combined Coordination Center at Camp Aguinaldo, the headquarters of the Philippine military. “This center will enable real-time information sharing for a common operating picture, and it will help boost interoperability for many years to come. It will be a place where our forces can work side-by-side to respond to regional challenges,” Austin said at the ceremony.The US has been expanding its military footprint in the Philippines and increasing military ties with Manila as part of its plans for a future war with China in the region. The US is also strongly backing the Philippines in its maritime dispute with China in the South China Sea, an area that has turned into a potential flashpoint for a conflict between the US and China.Chinese and Philippine vessels often have tense encounters near disputed rocks and reefs in the South China Sea that sometimes end in collision. The US always uses the incidents to remind China that the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty covers attacks on Philippine boats.
Chinese Defense Minister Rejects Talks With US Over Taiwan Support - On Thursday, the Chinese Defense Ministry blamed the US for the lack of talks between the two countries’ defense ministers while they were both in Laos for meetings with Southeast Asian officials.The US said it asked for Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart, Dong Jun, on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Defense Ministers Meeting, but China declined due to US support for Taiwan.“The responsibility lies fully with the American side,” said Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Wu Qian. “The US side cannot undermine China’s core interests on the Taiwan issue, yet at the same time try to conduct exchanges with the [mainland] Chinese military as if nothing had happened.”Wu said the US must “immediately correct its mistake, earnestly respect China’s core interests, and strive to create favorable conditions for high-level exchanges between the two militaries.”China suspended high-level military talks with the US in 2022, following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s provocative trip to Taiwan, which provoked the largest-ever Chinese military drills. High-level military contacts resumed earlier this year but now appear to be suspended again as the US has continued to increase support for Taiwan, ignoring China’s repeated warnings that the issue is the “first red line” in US-China relations that must not be crossed. The US recently approved $2 billion in major arms sales for Taiwan, drawing a rebuke from China. In September, the Biden administrationapproved $567 million in new military aid for Taiwan, a form of support for the island the US just started providing in 2023.
Kim Jong Un Calls for 'Limitless' Nuclear Build-Up In Response To 'Asia NATO' --North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered a fiery speech where he stressed the importance of accelerating the country’s nuclear weapons program in response to Western threats. In the address to the North Korean Army issued days ago, Kim said, "The United States has already converted its alliance with the [South Korea] into a nuclear-based one and created an 'Asian NATO' in haste by cementing its military ties with Japan and South Korea."The North Korean leader stressed that US nuclear deployments to the region, joint war games with South Korea and Japan, and building military blocs aimed at Pyongyang are all intolerable to North Korea. Kim stressed the increasing threat from Washington justified accelerating Pyongyang’s nuclear program. "Long ago, the line of building up our nuclear forcesbecame an irreversible policy, so what remains to be done now is for these forces to get more fully ready for action so that they can carry out the mission of deterring war and the second mission at any moment."He continued, "We will build up our nation’s self-defense forces, the pivot of which is its nuclear capability, limitlessly and endlessly without satisfaction."In addition to discussing North Korea’s military tensions with the US, Kim also discussed Pyongyang’s position in what he has previously described as a "new Cold War.""As the US and other Western countries are using Ukraine as a shock force in the war against Russia, we should view it as a maneuver to enrich their real-war experience and expand the scope of military intervention all over the world."He added, "By sustaining their military assistance to Ukraine and Israel…This aggravates the international security situation, stoking fears of a third world war."
Pentagon Gets Rid Of DEI Evidence Before Trump Takes Office --It was recently reported that corrupt Pentagon officials are “scrambling” to wipe all evidence of DEI before President-elect Donald Trump steps back into the Oval Office on Jan. 20, 2025. Breitbart News wrote in its exclusive article that its sources stated that the Pentagon is in “absolute disarray” with “generals scrambling” because Trump plans to fire far-left senior military leaders who pushed DEI and other woke policies instead of taking care of combat readiness.One source compared the organization’s situation to a hornet’s nest being kicked over, adding that “DEI pages are starting to disappear off the main websites.”“They’re being archived as we speak. They are full-bore focused on cleaning up anything DEI-related,” the source stated.Another anonymous person said that many Pentagon employees are afraid they will be fired, stating that “they are in panic mode.”The recent news came after Trump gathered the names of senior officers who had pushed DEI. One Breitbart source familiar with the plan said that Trump’s team drafted an executive order to create a panel to recommend those senior officers for elimination and that the executive order is “definitely” going to Trump’s desk.“This is for real. This [order] has made the cut,” the source said, noting that the executive order could be revised and consulted with incoming leaders at the Pentagon.According to the sources, the order plans to “reorient the U.S. military away from the woke ideology and priorities that have been foisted upon it” since the Obama administration.Headline USA previously reported on Trump planning to fire far-left generals en masse.The recent news came after Trump picked Army veteran Pete Hegseth as the head of the Department of Defense, which resulted in the Left seething over the pick. “The Pentagon is legitimately scared of [Hegseth] because of his opposition to DEI — keep in mind, the Defense Department is spending around $86 BILLION on various DEI initiatives,” Kaylee McGhee White said. “Hegseth wants to root that out.”
Trump’s Energy Sanctions Are a Double-Edged Sword for Global Economy -The U.S. continues to uphold sanctions on several countries including Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. While the Biden administration eased sanctions on Venezuelan energy at the beginning of the year, and Iran has been able to increasingly circumvent sanctions, there was no clear path to bringing the sanctions to a total stop. Now, with the election of Donald Trump as President for a second non-consecutive term, U.S. energy sanctions could become stricter as he focuses on boosting domestic oil and gas output and strengthening controls on these countries. On his campaign trail, Trump repeatedly vowed to impose stricter sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude, which could lead to a decrease in the global oil supply and drive up prices. “Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous, with some short-term downside risk to Iran oil supply … and thus upside price risk,” Goldman Sachs commodities analysts wrote in a research note. “But medium-term downside risk to oil demand and thus oil prices from downside risk to global GDP from a potential escalation in trade tensions.” Having often shouted the phrase “drill baby, drill” at his rallies, Trump is expected to double down on his support for U.S. oil and gas production. The uncertainty over new licenses seen during Biden’s term in office will be a thing of the past, as oil and gas companies pursue more exploration activities to maintain their record levels of crude and gas output. The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil producer, contributing 22 percent of the world’s crude, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).While oil and gas output was growing to record highs under Biden, restrictions were also eased on energy from sanctioned countries, such as Iran and Venezuela. Iran is now producing around 3.5 million bpd of crude and exporting 1.8 million bpd, despite the continued sanctions. This is a significant increase from the amount being produced when Trump was in power, which fell to an official low of around 400,000 bpd under his previous administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. We are already starting to see a change in the trend with Iranian oil, with exports falling due to the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Iran’s exports are expected to decrease even further under the new Trump administration as the stricter imposition of sanctions is to be expected. This week, Trump selected U.S. Senator Marco Rubio – who has long pushed for a tougher U.S. policy on Iran and China – as secretary of state for his new government. Bob McNally, the president of Rapidan Energy, stated, “Senator Rubio has a consistent and strong record as a hawk on Iran, Venezuela, and China.” McNally added that Rubio will “zealously implement President-elect Trump’s plans to exert pressure on Iran’s crude exports, nearly all which go to China”.China has increased its import of discounted energy supplies from U.S.-sanctioned countries, including Iran, Venezuela and Russia, by blatantly circumventing sanctions in recent years. China has used special routes, ghost tankers, and other clandestine tactics to increase its imports of crude from these countries, and, as sanctions have loosened, it has imported oil and gas via more conventional routes.Russia overtook Saudi Arabia to become China’s biggest crude supplier in 2023, shipping 2.14 million barrels per day of oil to the Asian giant. China also reported importing 11 percent more crude from Iran in the first three months of 2024 than during the same period in 2023. This could present an issue as Trump attempts to impose stricter sanctions, potentially prompting China to retaliate if its energy supplies are disrupted.Nevertheless, Trump has doubled down on his plans for stricter sanctions on all three countries. In October, Venezuela’s oil exports rose to 950,000 barrels per day, a four-year high. However, Jose Cardenas, Washington strategic consultant and lobbyist, explained, “Revoking the oil licenses would send a powerful signal to not only Maduro, the opposition, the EU, and others that the U.S. is serious about a democratic transition taking place in Venezuela.” Any move to further strengthen sanctions on Venezuela would likely push the South American country closer to Iran and China, which could cause geopolitical tensions for the U.S. and its allies.When it comes to Russia, Ian Bremmer, the president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said, “What I am hearing from Trump advisors is that Trump would be prepared to put much tougher sanctions against them,” if Russia rejects a peace deal. As the U.S. has increased its natural gas output significantly over the last few years, and its allies have secured alternative gas supplies, it leaves Trump in a strong position to enforce strict sanctions on Russian energy. However, stricter sanctions could lead China to retaliate, as its energy supply chains become disrupted. It could also encourage Venezuela and Iran to deepen their ties with one another, thereby creating greater geopolitical unrest.
Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy lay out plan to cut government jobs and regulations -- Tech entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy said Wednesday that their brand-new government efficiency panel will identify “thousands” of regulations for President-elect Trumpto eliminate, which they argue will justify “mass head-count reductions” across government. The pair, who were named co-chairs of the panel last week, laid out their plans for the “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE) in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. “The two of us will advise DOGE at every step to pursue three major kinds of reform: regulatory rescissions, administrative reductions and cost savings,” they wrote. “We will focus particularly on driving change through executive action based on existing legislation rather than by passing new laws.” Musk and Ramaswamy pointed to several recent Supreme Court decisions that have taken aim at the power of the administrative state, arguing that a “plethora of current federal regulations” exceed agency authority and could be on the chopping block. Slashing regulations should allow for “at least” proportional cuts to the government workforce, they argue. “A drastic reduction in federal regulations provides sound industrial logic for mass head-count reductions across the federal bureaucracy,” the pair wrote in the op-ed. “Not only are fewer employees required to enforce fewer regulations, but the agency would produce fewer regulations once its scope of authority is properly limited,” they added.Musk and Ramaswamy preemptively addressed arguments about civil service protections that could potentially block Trump from firing federal workers. “The purpose of these protections is to protect employees from political retaliation,” they wrote. “But the statute allows for ‘reductions in force’ that don’t target specific employees. The statute further empowers the president to ‘prescribe rules governing the competitive service.’ That power is broad.” “With this authority, Mr. Trump can implement any number of ‘rules governing the competitive service’ that would curtail administrative overgrowth, from large-scale firings to relocation of federal agencies out of the Washington area,” they added. Government workers are already mobilizing in the face of potential mass cuts, reportedly hiring lawyers and preparing public campaigns while also hoping Congress will step in, according to Reuters. DOGE also hopes to take aim at “unauthorized” federal funding, which could impact everything from veterans’ health care and opioid addiction treatment to NASA, The Washington Postreported. The op-ed seemingly seeks to address widespread skepticism about the ability of Musk and Ramaswamy’s panel to enact change. As an outside-of-government commission, it would be limited to an advisory capacity, meaning it could face numerous obstacles from within the executive branch, as well as Congress,experts previously told The Hill. However, Musk’s close relationship with the president-elect could be influential. The Tesla and SpaceX CEO played a key role in Trump’s campaign, contributing millions of dollars to his own pro-Trump super PAC and getting out on the campaign trial.Since Trump’s decisive victory over Vice President Harris earlier this month, Musk has remained close at hand; the billionaire tech mogul joined the president-elect at Mar-a-Lago on election night to watch the results roll in and later received a shoutout in Trump’s victory speech. Musk has spent much of his time at the Palm Beach, Fla., resort over the past two weeks, reportedly weighing in on Trump’s Cabinet picks and attending meetings, including those with world leaders.He also hosted Trump in Texas to observe the launch of a SpaceX rocket Tuesday afternoon.
Economists expect Trump to place huge tariffs on Chinese imports: Survey - Economists are expecting President-elect Trump to place tariffs of about 40 percent on Chinese imports, according to a survey from Reuters. In the survey of economists, 45 percent said the “level of tariffs imposed by Trump on Chinese goods” will be between 31 percent and 45 percent. Thirty-five percent said the level would be between 15 percent and 30 percent, and 20 percent said the level would be between 46 percent and 60 percent.Trump has heavily backed tariffs as a way of strengthening the U.S. economy, but critics have argued it could lead to higher prices for consumers as trading partners raise their own tariffs on U.S. exports in response to the U.S. tariffs. U.S. tariffs are generally meant to protect the production of U.S. goods but can have the effect of raising prices on the goods being hit with tariffs.Trump has also variously suggested a general tariff of 10 percent and 20 percent aimed at all imported goods to foster investment in the U.S. and boost domestic industry. In his September debate against Vice President Harris, Trump again dug into his promise to increase tariffs on imported goods when discussing economic policy.“We’re doing tariffs on other countries,” Trump said at the time. “I took in billions and billions of dollars … from China.”The Reuters survey featured 50 economists and took place Nov. 13-20.
A double supply chain whammy is coming for U.S. economy in early 2025 - Uncertainty among U.S. shippers is escalating into 2025 with the expectation of new Trump tariffs and the possibility of a new ports strike that could begin in mid-January. Supply chain and logistics executives tell CNBC that shippers are now trying to game out the snafus that could be coming in the global supply chain and how much inventory to order against a consumer backdrop that remains strong, but subject to macroeconomic risks, and an early start to Lunar New Year, a holiday period in Asia during which manufacturing operations halt for as long as a month. In an advisory to clients, Honour Lane Shipping said it did not expect a volume spike in November because it took two to three weeks for production cycles to adjust, but frontloading may start in the first half of December, it wrote. It added the implementation of new tariffs could be delayed though, and push back the frontloading to a later date during the first half of 2025. The earliest new tariffs could be in effect is in late February or early March, according to an alert from C.H. Robinson to clients. "With continued port labor uncertainty and the potential for increased tariffs in Q1, shippers should anticipate a strategic pull-forward of inventory out of Asia, which would impact both international and certain domestic freight markets (e.g., Southern California)," it wrote. But shippers must now decide which coast to send freight to given exposure to a possible ILA strike at ports from New England to Texas which could begin in mid-January. Travel time for ocean freight from China to the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports is 40-55 days. The negotiation deadline between the United States Maritime Alliance and the ILA is January 15. Last week, USMX announced the ILA had walked away from negotiations after an impasse over automation issues. "Given the short duration of the extended deadline and the contestation of the automation issue, it is most likely that this will play out again in January," said Corey Rhodes, CEO of Everstream Analytics. "The question then becomes how long the USMX will hold out on conceding to ILA's demands this time around." Rhodes said the strategies employed by shippers will differ based on the inventory management needs. Everstream clients include Whirlpool, AB InBev, and Danone. He added that making these types of decisions has become part of the typical uncertainty that the supply chain needs to be prepared to face. "I was running a high-tech manufacturing operation before I took this job and we did manufacturing through China," Rhodes said. "We wanted to hold as little inventory as possible on our books, but needed access to it on short notice and we were dependent on sub-components that were sourced from other countries. Managing that complexity was kind of the name of the game." Mike Short, president of global forwarding at C.H. Robinson, told CNBC that the logistics firm is seeing a variety of inquiries about front-loading freight, but it might not be feasible if suppliers can't ramp up production. "For those who can and want to front-load, the reasons are split among the pending second U.S. port strike in mid-January, the Lunar New Year starting on January 29, and potential tariff changes," said Short. "Others are simply trying to figure out the timing — one customer asked about the last day their freight could leave Asia and arrive in the U.S. before the new tariffs potentially take effect." The congestion that followed the three-day ILA strike in October took weeks to clear out. According to Everstream Analytics, there were 54 container ships waiting outside ports on October 4 when the strike ended, compared to five vessels before the strike started.
Bevy of immigration programs at risk under Trump mass deportation plan Immigrants with temporary status face uncertain future - Immigrants with humanitarian or temporary legal status in the United States are at risk of being rendered effectively undocumented by the incoming Trump administration. More than 1.5 million people can currently live and work in the country protected both by longtime programs including Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and Biden administration innovations such as the parole processes for Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan and Venezuelan (CHNV) migrants. “Twilight” or “liminal” statuses occupy a gray area between unauthorized presence in the United States and legal permanent immigration paperwork. According to data compiled by the Migration Policy Institute, the federal government has 3,390,295 grants of liminal statuses, though the number of people protected is almost certainly lower because some foreign nationals may be protected by more than one program. Without the protections granted by these programs, immigrants who are accustomed to living and working in the United States legally could lose those rights overnight, risking their livelihoods and potentially being detained and deported. Here are the programs that could be at risk under the second Trump administration:
- Temporary Protected Status - TPS was set up in 1990 amid increased migration from El Salvador, where death squads run by the U.S.-supported government were terrorizing a segment of the population. The program was approved with Salvadorans in mind, but it gave the federal government the ability to grant work permits and deferrals from deportation to nationals of any designated nation. Countries can be designated for TPS for up to 18 months at a time to avoid deporting people to somewhere going through or recovering from natural or man-made disasters. TPS holders in most cases can’t adjust their status to become permanent residents, a feature of the 1990 immigration bill that’s perpetuated twilight status for hundreds of thousands of people. The first Trump administration aggressively targeted TPS, arguing that it had lost its temporary nature and using the example of El Salvador as proof: According to the Congressional Research Service, 180,375 Salvadorans are still protected by the program. TPS only protects nationals of a country who were physically present in the United States as of a certain date. For Salvadorans, that date is Feb. 13, 2001, meaning Salvadoran TPS beneficiaries have lived and worked legally in the United States for nearly a quarter-century.
- Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals - DACA was the Obama administration’s most visible immigrant relief effort, an origin story that attracts Democrats and repels Republicans. But through its lifetime, DACA has gained bipartisan clout because it protects a publicly sympathetic group of people known as “Dreamers.” Dreamers are undocumented immigrants who arrived in the country as minors — DACA beneficiaries are a subset of Dreamers who fulfilled the program’s requirements, including being born on or after 1981, arriving before 2007 and passing the relevant background checks. Because DACA started in 2012 with age-specific rules, the DACA-eligible population has shrunk significantly since its inception. At its peak, the program had more than 800,000 beneficiaries, a number that as of June shrunk to 535,030, according to United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). Throughout its lifetime, DACA has faced multiple challenges on its legality, primarily through lawsuits led by red states, and a case is currently under review by the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. During litigation, DHS has been barred from processing any new DACA applications, increasing the rate of membership attrition. DACA was first declared illegal in 2021 by a federal judge in Texas, who argued the Obama administration circumvented Congress in its creation by not issuing it as a rule subject to a comments period. In 2023, that same judge ruled President Biden’s reissuing of the program as a rule subject to comments was also illegal..
- Biden parole programs - A second Trump administration is certain to stop accepting migrants into the country under parole programs started under Biden, but it’s less clear what will happen to people who have already received parole.According to Migration Policy Institute numbers, the current administration has granted parole to Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan and Venezuelan nationals 531,000 times as of September.But the Biden administration has also said it will not renew CHNV parole status, forcing beneficiaries to seek a different status, including asylum or TPS. The first Venezuelan CHNV grants started expiring in October; nationals of the three other countries have until early next year before their parole expires. The short time frame could make it convenient for the Trump administration to simply wait for parole status to expire rather than acting to terminate it proactively. Advocates are calling on the Biden administration to extend all possible parole designations, hoping to give current parolees more time before potentially being targeted for deportation.
- Asylum -The United States asylum system is overwhelmed, with a backlog of more than 2 million cases between immigration courts and USCIS.But there is significant overlap between asylum, gray area statuses and visas, including green cards.“The number of people with these statuses who have also applied for asylum is probably really high, so that would really get into a double counting problem,” said Bush-Joseph.Prospective asylees who have already passed their initial screening — those in the backlog — are protected from deportation by statute, meaning the Trump administration would face significant legal challenges in trying to deport them before their cases are heard. But immigrant advocates say the incoming administration’s buildup of expectations is already rattling immigrant communities with uncertainty.
New York Democrats express willingness to collaborate with Trump - Democratic state and city officials in New York state, taking their cue from lame duck president Biden and others, are expressing their willingness to work “constructively” with the incoming Trump administration. The state’s governor, Kathy Hochul, and New York City Mayor Eric Adams have even gone further, expressing agreement with Trump on aspects of his fascist program. This is despite the fact that Trump’s proposals to defund federal support for education, healthcare, housing and transit would have devastating effects on the state and city, along with the impact of his policies regarding democratic rights. Hochul, who replaced former Democratic Governor Andrew Cuomo when he resigned after a media-driven sexual harassment scandal, has carried out a right wing, pro-business program, differing in degree but not in kind from that of the Republicans. The New York Post reports that in a telephone call two days after the election, Governor Hochul congratulated Trump on his victory, in a conversation that “focused on collaboration.” In a clear signal that she wanted to do business with Trump, Hochul told reporters, “Relationships work both ways and as a result of that call I feel confident right now that, as he said to me, that he wants a cooperative relationship with New York.” Hochul is hoping, probably on little basis other than Trump’s vague words promising cooperation, and despite his promises to cut spending for a wide range of federal programs, for financial support for a number of large infrastructure projects. These include continuing construction of the Second Avenue Subway, the renovation and expansion of Penn Station, both in Manhattan, and financial support for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA), which serves New York City and its suburbs. She is signaling a willingness, in return, to accommodate Trump on his fascistic program, particularly in relation to immigration. One of Trump’s signature campaign promises is to carry out mass deportations of undocumented immigrants, estimated to number more than 11 million nationally. This is one of the most important elements of his fascistic program, which he brought up constantly at pre-election rallies everywhere. In order to carry out such a brutal operation, the deployment of a huge number of federal police and military personnel, supplemented by state and local police and National Guard units, will be necessary. The cooperation of state and local governments will be vital. In the past, more limited deportation programs, carried out by both the Obama and first Trump administrations, met with varied levels of cooperation. The Cuomo administration mounted some limited resistance to Trump’s first-term efforts against immigrants, in the form of executive orders and legislation prohibiting cooperation with federal authorities from detaining undocumented individuals at state court houses and other state facilities. Unlike in some other states, however, these restrictions did not extend to county and local governments. Efforts to pass legislation in New York to that effect were unsuccessful. The fascist program known as Project 2025, which is Trump’s unofficial agenda, calls for the punishment of state and local governments that resist the mass deportation policy by withholding a variety of federal funds. Governor Hochul has not explicitly stated whether or to what degree her administration will cooperate with Trump’s deportation program. However, last February, she did tell CNN that, “The state of New York has the power to work with ICE [the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement].” Hochul’s attitude toward immigrants is revealed by her comment in response to an assault by police on migrants in Manhattan. The clash was initially falsely blamed on the immigrants even though the attack was initiated by the police. “I want them [the migrants] arrested, tried, and if convicted, I want them to spend time in New York jails before they are deported,” she said at the time. “Get them all and send them back.” Furthermore, Hochul has promoted intelligence-sharing between federal, state and local agencies, creating mechanisms by which information about immigrants, political dissidents and opponents of Trump’s policies is easily available to all levels of government.
The Trump administration’s next target: naturalized US citizens - It appears that President-elect Donald Trump intends to keep his campaign promise to begin deporting at least 15 million people who, he claims, have been “poisoning the blood” of our country. By at least one estimate, it will be virtually impossible — logistically and financially — to implement Trump’s grandiose ambitions, but that won’t keep him from destroying countless lives while trying. One initiative, smaller in scale but potentially devastating in its impact, will be aimed at immigrants who have become naturalized U.S. citizens. Trump has named three deportation hardliners to key positions in his administration, including Stephen Miller as deputy chief of staff for policy, Kristi Noem for secretary of Homeland Security and Tom Homan as “border czar.” Miller is likely to be especially influential and especially brutal. “America is for Americans only,” he shouted at Trump’s Madison Square Garden campaign rally. In a pre-election interview, he outlined a sweeping plan to use the National Guard, state and local police, the Drug Enforcement Agency, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms and even the U.S. military to round up undocumented immigrants and detain them in tent camps until they can be expelled. But even “documented” immigrants will not be safe, because Miller has declared that he will pursue the seldom-used process of “denaturalization” to go after people who have been citizens for years or decades, based on suspicions about purported fraud on their naturalization applications. Individuals stripped of citizenship will then be subject to deportation along with Miller’s other targets. Not every discrepancy or inconsistency is evidence of fraud, of course, so it is inevitable that some legitimate citizens, or those who made minor mistakes based on confusion, may be caught up in an overzealous investigation. The process for invalidating naturalization was created by statute in 1906, providing that citizenship may be canceled if it was obtained through false statements or fraudulent omissions. It was used inconsistently in the 20th century, with periods of intense activity during the World Wars and the Cold War, and much less often in less parlous times. By the early 21st century, denaturalization was mainly sought for accused terrorists, war criminals and human rights violators who had concealed their backgrounds on their visa and citizenship applications. During the Obama administration, for example, a successful denaturalization case was initiated against Rasmea Odeh, who had concealed her previous conviction for a supermarket bombing in Israel that had killed two university students. During the first Trump administration, the Department of Justice established a new denaturalization effort called “Operation Second Look,” tasked with investigating the citizenship of thousands of immigrants suspected of obtaining naturalization by fraud, misrepresentation, or deceit. Operation Second Look hired scores of new agents, initially more than tripling the number of active denaturalization cases and promising many more. While Democratic administrations had “focused on those who have done something terrible,” the Trump investigators appeared primed to go after “people who did nothing of note, or whose wrong caused no harm.” In 2017, the Supreme Court limited the government’s ability to revoke citizenship, unanimously holding that naturalization can only be canceled for “materially” false statements, meaning a lie or intentional omission that would have precluded naturalization in the first place. Materiality, however, is in the eye of the beholder — or in this case of Stephen Miller, who has declared that he will revive a “turbocharged” Operation Second Look in 2025, consistent with his intention to strip as many immigrants as possible of citizenship as a prelude to deportation. Miller’s obsessive denaturalization campaign can have extreme consequences, and not only for those immigrants who, rightly or wrongly, find their citizenship challenged or canceled. Even those who successfully defeat a denaturalization case will have been subjected to tremendous stress. As journalist M. Gessen explained, an expansive hunt for invalid naturalization applications can turn millions of naturalized citizens into second-class citizens, by “taking away their assumption of permanence.” Even worse, thousands of immigrants, naturalized as minors through a parent’s application, may have their citizenship annulled through no fault of their own. Perhaps worse still, if that is imaginable, many American-born children might find their citizenship in doubt if their parents are denaturalized, given Trump’s pledge to end birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants. For the many without funds for an attorney, there is a significant chance of losing citizenship by mistake or default, which may be exactly what Stephen Miller has in mind.
Donald Trump signals use of military for deportations -- President-elect Trump recirculated a social media post Monday suggesting his incoming administration will declare an immigration national emergency and use military assets to support his mass deportation pledge, labeling the claim “TRUE!!!” On his Truth Social site, Trump at 4:03 a.m. EST reposted Tom Fitton, the president of Judicial Watch, a conservative organization that’s been active both in courts and on social media regarding a number of culture war issues, including questioning the legitimacy of elections. “GOOD NEWS: Reports are the incoming @RealDonaldTrump administration prepared to declare a national emergency and will use military assets to reverse the Biden invasion through a mass deportation program,” Fitton wrote. Trump’s single-word response appeared to confirm the report. “President Trump will marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history while simultaneously lowering costs for families,” said press secretary Karoline Leavitt. “The American people re-elected President Trump by a resounding margin giving him a mandate to implement the promises he made on the campaign trail, like deporting migrant criminals and restoring our economic greatness. He will deliver.” Immigration advocates are bracing for swift executive action on immigration from the incoming administration, but questions remain about the potential legal, logistical and budgetary limitations of plans to carry out mass deportations. The Department of Defense, through the National Guard, has been actively supporting border security missions for years. That support is generally limited to background logistics, including communications and transportation, freeing up more Border Patrol and Customs and Border Protection officers to directly engage with migrants. Trump and his inner circle have suggested greater military involvement in immigration enforcement both at the border and in the interior.
Ken Cuccinelli says Trump using military will help drive migrant numbers at border ‘down into the dirt’ -- Former senior Trump administration official Ken Cuccinelli said Monday that President-elect Trump “using the military” will help drive migrant numbers at the border “down into the dirt.” Cuccinelli told NewsNation’s Blake Burman in an interview on “The Hill” that he believes early next year, “you will see our military used between legal ports of entry, especially on the southern border, to finally gain control of that border” adding that “all immigration, all passage of any kind, will pass through legal ports of entry only.” Burman said Cuccinelli’s words about all immigration and all passage of any kind moving through legal ports of entry “sounds aspirational,” asking him if he actually believes “that can happen.” In his response, Cuccinelli said Burman was “right” and that “it’ll never be 100 percent, but it doesn’t need to be to drive the numbers coming to the border down into the dirt,” adding that Trump will “do that using the military between the legal ports of entry.” Trump has previously discussed the military being used on the “enemy from within,” at the border and possibly versus cartels in Mexico. The president-elect’s platform, known as Agenda 47, called for “moving thousands of troops currently stationed overseas” to the southern border.
Tom Homan says Trump admin will ‘absolutely’ use gifted Texas land for deportation program -Tom Homan, President-elect Trump’s pick as “border czar,” said the incoming Republican administration will “absolutely” use the gifted Texas land as a part of their deportation program. “We absolutely will. When we find somebody, a targeted enforcement operation, when they get arrested, they’ll be detained,” Homan said during his Wednesday appearance on Fox News’ “’The Ingraham Angle.” “They have to be detained for a short time while we get travel documents from their host country. [The] host country has to agree that, ‘yeah, they’re our national’ – we get travel documents. We get flight arrangements, flight agreements. So we’re going to detain them for a little while,” he added. Homan’s remarks come just a day after Texas officials offered Trump a 1,400-acre ranch for his mass deportation plan. Dawn Buckingham, the land commissioner of the Texas General Land Office, said on Tuesday her office is “fully prepared” to cooperate with federal agencies that will carry out Trump’s immigration agenda. The 1,402-acre lot is in Starr County.Trump has vowed on the campaign trail to perform the “largest deportation effort in American history.” He signaled on Monday that he would declare an immigration national emergency and utilize military assets to carry out his deportation pledge. Despite Texas officials siding with Trump’s immigration plan, some other parts of the country are looking to protect immigrants before the president-elect’s inauguration in January. Los Angeles City Council unanimously passed a “sanctuary city” ordinance to shield migrants in the city. Homan said on Wednesday that the ordinance will not matter. “Sanctuary states said they’re not allowing any detention facilities in their state — fine. Then we’ll arrest them. We’ll fly them out of the state and detain them outside the state, again, away — away from their families, their attorneys,” Homan told host Laura Ingraham. “That’s what you want, that’s what you get.” “You’re not going to stop us doing what we’re going to do,” he added on Wednesday. “So we’ll move them to a state where we can detain them. There’s plenty of sheriffs across this country who are willing to give us empty beds. They want the funding and we can put them in a jail all across the country.”
FEMA head testifies about reports Trump supporters' homes were passed over for aid -- Federal Emergency Management Agency Administrator Deanne Criswell told two U.S. House panels Tuesday that there is no evidence that an order to deny emergency relief to Donald Trump supporters went beyond a single rogue employee — though Criswell said she welcomed a robust investigation to confirm that.A long line of Republicans denounced the action of a low-level agency supervisor working in Florida following Hurricane Milton. The supervisor told her team to avoid canvassing houses that displayed support for Trump, at the time the Republican nominee in the 2024 election and now the president-elect.Republicans on the House Transportation and Infrastructure subcommittee with oversight of FEMA and the House Oversight and Accountability Committee were largely congenial toward Criswell. They thanked her for terminating the employee while still questioning if a larger culture of political targeting plagued the agency.Criswell repeatedly told the panels the incident appeared to be isolated. She added that the agency was conducting an internal investigation to determine if any other employees were involved.The fired employee, Marn’i Washington, was not named during the morning’s Transportation and Infrastructure hearing but has openly discussed the matter with news media. Members of the Oversight Committee did name Washington during the afternoon hearing.“The actions of this employee are unacceptable, and it is not indicative of the culture of FEMA, and I do not believe that there is a widespread cultural problem,” Criswell said at the Transportation and Infrastructure hearing. “I have directed ongoing investigations, working with the (Homeland Security inspector general), working with the Office of the Special Counsel, and if we find any other acts of similar behavior, we will take appropriate disciplinary measures.”Criswell said the employee directed about 11 subordinates to skip houses with Trump signs. About 20 homes in Florida were passed over, she said.Pressed by Transportation and Infrastructure subcommittee Chair Scott Perry, a Pennsylvania Republican, Criswell said she would request an inspector general investigation.Perry and other GOP members said they would continue to probe allegations from Washington that her directions to avoid canvassing homes with Trump signs were part of a larger directive within the agency.“If that is the case, more people at FEMA must be held accountable,” Perry said.
Fired FEMA worker accused of skipping homes with Trump signs says she was following protocol - The former Federal Emergency Management Agency employee who was fired earlier this month after being accused of skipping homes of Donald Trump supporters while providing relief in Florida after Hurricane Milton told CNN on Monday night that she was simply following FEMA protocol. "What I'd like for the American people to know is before I even deployed to Florida, that this was the work culture there," Marn'i Washington told CNN's Laura Coates. "I was on two teams in Florida and the first team, when I arrived, they were implementing avoidance and de-escalation and unfortunately that trend ran with those Trump signs."FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell is set to testify on Capitol Hill on Tuesday afternoon before the House Oversight Committee in what will likely be fiery hearings as lawmakers question her about disaster relief and whether the agency avoided providing aid to Republicans in hard-hit areas.CNN reported on threats against FEMA workers in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene the month before, including the case of a North Carolina man who was arrested for allegedly threatening harm against FEMA employees in October. Local authorities said the man was armed with a handgun and a rifle when he was arrested.FEMA temporarily paused aid to several communities in North Carolina, and outreach resumed after about a day, a FEMA spokesperson said at the time.Washington said her team encountered hostility from some residents in Florida as they went door-to-door."Yes, we've had people verbally express to us that our presence was unwelcome and unwanted. Some people had some tact about it and some people were not so nice about it," she said.Washington said FEMA's guidelines to relief workers in Florida were to remove themselves from hostile situations if they felt threatened or unsafe."I did not act on my own volition. Everything we did was out of the focus of safety and making sure our team felt comfortable," Washington told Coates. "I don't create policy. FEMA does. I just implement it in the field."Asked if her relief team avoided all homes with Trump signs, Washington said, "It was only selected areas where there were teammates that felt uncomfortable, they did not feel safe and they feared for their safety." "We registered Trump supporters, we've given them service as well, just we avoided the areas that were hostile," she added.After Washington was fired, Criswell released a statement saying, "This is a clear violation of FEMA's core values & principles to help people regardless of their political affiliation. This was reprehensible.""It would be nice if Ms. Criswell would be human and come to terms with the fact that FEMA has not addressed the safety concerns that the crew leads and the specialists experience out in the Field," Washington said. "There are plenty of reports that discuss hostile encounters, is how FEMA describes it, and our method is avoidance. I don't understand why we're hiding that from the American people."
FEMA chief says she will ask for independent probe into orders to bypass Trump supporters -Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Deanne Criswell said Tuesday she would call for an Office of Inspector General (OIG) investigation into an employee directing personnel to bypass houses with Trump campaign signs during the federal response to Hurricane Milton. Testifying before the House Transportation Committee’s Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings and Emergency Management on Tuesday, Criswell reiterated that she had ensured the employee was fired over the order, which she called “completely at odds with FEMA’s mission” and that such orders “will not be tolerated at FEMA.” Criswell said she did not believe the orders, directed to an 11-person team, were indicative of wider practices and said that all the residences bypassed as a result had since been visited. Subcommittee Chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.) referred to assertions by the fired employee that she was following orders from supervisors at FEMA and asked for details of the internal investigation as well as any pending OIG investigation. “The IG has not of yet stated they want to investigate this, but I highly encourage them to take on this case and look and see if this was a widespread issue or if this was just a single incident,” Criswell said. Pressed by Perry on whether the investigation included the employee’s former superiors, Criswell said the investigation had thus far found no evidence that the orders were dictated from any higher up the chain of command. “I would welcome an investigation by the IG,” she added, clarifying, “I will request one” when Perry followed up. Criswell is slated to testify later Tuesday before the House Oversight Committee regarding the same issue. Marn’i Washington, the fired employee, told NewsNation’s Dan Abrams on Monday she had been “framed” and denied violating the Hatch Act, which restricts political activity by government employees. She went on to claim, “I execute orders. I don’t create policy.”
Biden Asks Congress To Approve $100 Billion Supplemental For Disaster Relief —The Biden administration is urging Congress to allocate $100 billion in disaster relief to assist communities across the Southeast affected by the recent hurricanes Helene and Milton. “With the Congress now back in session, I write to request urgently needed emergency funding to provide for an expeditious and meaningful Federal response to Hurricanes Helene and Milton and other natural disasters,” President Joe Biden said in a letter to Congress addressed to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) on Nov. 18. The administration on Nov. 18 submitted a funding request that included $40 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), $24 billion for the Department of Agriculture, and $12 billion for the Department of Housing and Urban Development.“The last time Congress passed a comprehensive disaster package was in December of 2022 as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2023,” Shalanda Young, director of the Office of Management and Budget, told reporters during a call.“Since then, numerous deadly storms and disasters have struck communities across the country. Those, of course, include hurricanes Milton and Helene.”Biden is seeking funding for a total of 16 agencies, with additional allocations such as $8 billion for the Department of Transportation, $4 billion for the Environmental Protection Agency, $3 billion for the Department of Health and Human Services, and $2 billion for the Small Business Administration (SBA).The request came after Johnson signaled that the House might delay appropriations bills until early 2025, when Republicans are set to control both Congress and the White House.“We’re running out of clock; December 20 is the deadline,” Johnson told Shannon Bream on “Fox News Sunday” on Nov. 17. “We’re still hopeful we might be able to get that done, but if not, we will have a temporary measure. I think it would go into the first part of next year and allow us the necessary time to get this done.”
Disaster aid package faces test from conservatives – = Lawmakers are poring over the massive $99 billion disaster aid request that the White House submitted to Congress this week and are already signaling they want to see some changes.While the idea of passing a comprehensive disaster relief package before the end of the year has garnered bipartisan support from every corner of the Capitol, members have not found consensus on how much money to spend or where exactly to allocate it.The differences of opinion — most evident among House Republicans — threaten to undermine congressional leaders’ year-end push to approve badly needed disaster assistance as federal agencies warn that their recovery efforts are on life support.Senate Appropriations Chair Patty Murray (D-Wash.) tried to get ahead of any funding fights during a disaster-focused hearing with administration officials Wednesday. She reminded her colleagues of the urgency of their work as communities continue to reel from the impacts of major storms, floods and wildfires in the past two years.“You don’t argue whether to put out a fire; you don’t debate how much water to use or how many people to save,” Murray said. “You roll up your sleeves, you get to work, and you get help out the door — as much as needed, as fast as possible.”She added, “Right now, the backbone of our disaster response is running on fumes.”Indeed, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster fund is down to its last $5 billion, and the Small Business Administration has gone more than a month without money to approve new disaster loans.The administration’s request calls for $40 billion to shore up FEMA’s disaster relief fund; $24 billion for the Department of Agriculture to support farmers’ disaster recovery; $12 billion for the Department of Housing and Urban Development to lead long-term recovery efforts; $8 billion for the Department of Transportation to rebuild roads, highways and bridges; $2 billion for Small Business Administration disaster loans; and tens of billions additional dollars for dozens more agencies.The top Democrats and Republicans in both the House and Senate have pledged their support for a year-end disaster package.The Senate hearing, the first to focus on President Joe Biden’s latest disaster aid request, saw senators engage amicably with one another and with administration officials such as FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell. Not one senator expressed any significant concern with the request itself, and some even said they would support a second disaster supplemental sometime next year.But in the House, members have already laid bare the kinds of partisan rifts over emergency spending that could push the supplemental negotiations down to the wire. Congressional leaders are hoping to approve a package before the Dec. 20 government funding deadline.“I think it can be clearly reformed, or potentially pared down rather substantially,” said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), chair of the House State-Foreign Operations Appropriations Subcommittee, without going into specifics.Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), chair of both the conservative House Freedom Caucus and the Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee, was more blunt in his assessment of the White House’s request.“It’s pretty large and completely unpaid for,” he said. Disaster funding is generally exempt from pay-for rules.The request calls for more money for the Department of Agriculture than for any other agency except FEMA. It also proposes billions to help cover the rebuild of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Harris’ home state.Other Republican appropriators were more supportive of the request. Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), chair of the House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, pointed to the need to quickly fund infrastructure projects on military installations from Guam to Florida that have suffered significant damage due to storms.Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have come out strongly in support of the funding for farmers who are facing historic droughts and the impacts of crop and livestock loss due to extreme weather.Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-Maine), ranking member on the House Interior-Environment Appropriations Subcommittee, said Democratic appropriators were going to be briefed Wednesday on the details of the White House’s request.Appropriations ranking member Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) told reporters that she plans to “go through it line by line” and will work with colleagues to make necessary tweaks ahead of the Thanksgiving break.“There’s no doubt that there will be something that you want to maybe [change],” she said. “That’s going to happen in the next couple of days.”A number of lawmakers this week expressed concern about the short time frame for appropriating new money, noting the consequences of letting partisan differences get in the way of approving disaster dollars that are going to be needed sooner or later.Criswell, who testified before three different committees this week, told lawmakers multiple times that FEMA may have to restrict spending before the end of the year if Congress does not refill its disaster account. It would be the second such restriction since August.“A lot of the worst disasters have happened in red states just like they have happened in blue states, so I think there’s going to be pressure on everyone to get those negotiations concluded to figure out what the right number is and get it to the people that need it,” said Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.).
DOE writes big check for ‘clean’ hydrogen. Will Trump back it? - The Department of Energy’s announcement Wednesday of $2.2 billion in new “clean” hydrogen funding is renewing questions about the future of the low-carbon industry after President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. DOE said it’s committing up to $1.2 billion in federal cost share for the Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub and as much as $1 billion to the Midwest Hydrogen Hub (MachH2) — two pledges meant to cement the Biden administration’s ambition to build up the U.S. sector. “The Biden-Harris administration has followed through on its promise to kickstart a new domestic hydrogen industry that can produce fuel from almost any energy resource in virtually every part of the country,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement.The two hubs are part of a $7 billion Biden administration effort to jump-start the nascent industry using funds from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law. The administration considers clean hydrogen to include “blue” hydrogen, which involves burning fossil fuels and trapping the emissions through carbon capture and storage, as well as “green” hydrogen made with renewables and “pink” hydrogen produced with nuclear power. In October of last year, DOE picked seven hubs to receive infrastructure law funding and develop hydrogen systems for the transportation, industrial and power sectors. The department has made initial awards to hubs in California, the Pacific Northwest and Appalachia. For the Midwest hub, planned production sites are located in Michigan, Illinois, Indian and Iowa, according to a department fact sheet. The plan envisions using wind, natural gas and nuclear power for hydrogen production to decarbonize power generation, as well as heavy industries like steel. The hub, which is led by the Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen, would create approximately 12,000 jobs over its lifetime, DOE said.Project sites for the Gulf Coast hub are located in the Houston area and in South Texas. Led by HyVelocity, the hub plans to produce hydrogen from both low-carbon sources and natural gas tied to carbon capture. DOE said the Gulf Coast hub would create roughly 45,000 jobs over the project’s lifetime.While DOE’s pledge for the two hubs is $2.2 billion, the department awarded roughly $22 million to each project Wednesday to launch their initial respective phases, which includes “planning, design, and community and labor engagement” work.“By moving into Phase 1 with $22.2 million in federal funding, MachH2 will help accelerate the clean hydrogen economy and we are looking forward to working with communities throughout the Midwest to deliver the benefits of the clean energy future,” said Dorothy Davidson, CEO of MachH2, in a statement.It’s unclear how much hydrogen and other infrastructure funding could be rescinded administratively or through new legislation in a Republican Congress next year.Trump’s views on hydrogen hubs are not fully known, although his campaign website criticizes the fuel as “untested” and “plagued with safety and effectiveness concerns.” He’s also said he wants to claw back, or “impound,” infrastructure law funding.Spokespeople for the Trump transition team did not respond for comment.Some of Trump’s picks for top Cabinet positions have been supportive of hydrogen, however.Among the backers of the hubs are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R), Trump’s choice to lead the Interior Department, and a new energy council.Any efforts by Trump to stall the hubs also could face opposition from major oil companies.“We’re pleased to be part of HyVelocity and look forward to continued collaboration with our partners from industry, academia, and government to help advance the low-carbon hydrogen industry,” said Dan Holton, senior vice president of Exxon Mobil Low Carbon Solutions. “DOE’s support is a key enabler in developing this emerging market, and this award marks an important step in that direction.”DOE materials for each of the hydrogen hubs included a summary of community benefits commitments. The documents noted that the commitments “will be refined and updated at the end of each project phase.”Companies behind the projects and industry associations applauded DOE’s new pledges.“These Hubs will be integral in driving domestic clean hydrogen production and utilization, which will create tens of thousands of good paying jobs and help ensure American leadership in this global market, while driving broad decarbonization,” said Frank Wolak, CEO and president of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association, in a statement.Environmentalists have mixed views of hydrogen. “There’s a potential for hydrogen to do good,” Cyrus Reed, conservation director with the Sierra Club’s Lone Star Chapter, said in an interview Wednesday. There’s also “the potential for it to be a false clean energy solution and do harm.” He said “the devil’s going to be in the details.” The Sierra Club supports green hydrogen, as long as it doesn’t “take away from existing wind and solar and batteries that’s helping to power our grid right now in a clean way,” Reed said. Others like Robert Bullard, a professor of urban planning at Texas Southern University, said he was concerned about the effects on public health from the Gulf Coast hub.“Community members have made it clear that the hub, instead of helping communities, will most likely allow large oil and gas corporations to continue polluting at the expense of public health and the environment,” Bullard said.The funding for the Gulf Coast and Midwest hubs is greater than the federal cost share for the Appalachian Hydrogen Hub — which is set to receive up to $925 million. A Mid-Atlantic Hub and a “heartland” hub in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and Wisconsin have yet to ink deals with DOE.Representatives at those hubs did not respond for comment. A DOE spokesperson said the department is “focused on getting these hubs” finalized for awards.
US House passes major veterans care act -- The House on Monday passed a massive bill that will fund a range of veterans care services and increase opportunities for retired service members in the workforce and education. The Senator Elizabeth Dole 21st Century Veterans Healthcare and Benefits Improvement Act, known as the Dole Act, passed on a bipartisan 389-9 vote. The bill is a win for Republicans who have pointed to issues with the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and have called to allow veterans to access more care at home. Rep. Mike Bost (R-Ill.), chair of the House Veterans Affairs Committee, said a big provision is that the VA will no longer “get to decide where veterans should get their health care.” “The Dole Act would rightfully make sure that a VA bureaucracy cannot veto a doctor’s medical decisions,” he said on the House floor before the vote. “Two weeks ago, the American people voted us a mandate to fix problems they talked about at their kitchen tables that affect their families and communities every single day. The Dole Act is a foundation for that work to begin with the veterans community.” Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) said it was important to “ensure that no veteran will have to worry about losing his VA benefits for their family when choosing to spend their last days in the comfort of their home.” The bill will next head to the Senate, but it’s unclear if there is support for the legislation in the Democratic-controlled chamber. Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.), ranking member of the Veterans Affairs Committee, said the Dole Act will “connect veterans caregivers to respite care and other support services that help them care for veterans at home,” calling it “an investment in care for millions of veterans and current service members.” But he also said it was an “uphill battle” to get the bill passed, accusing the GOP of “outsourcing more VA care to for profit health care providers” in the original bill before a compromise was reached in the past week to preserve VA services. “We want VA to remain a strong provider of care, instead of diminishing it to nothing more than an insurance company where profits are prioritized over outcomes for veterans,” Takano said, adding he supported the bill but was upset about a few provisions. The Dole Act, named for the former Republican senator from North Carolina, is a major priority for veterans advocacy groups who point to the bill’s wide range of funding priorities to improve care through the VA. The legislation would tackle vexing problems for veterans like housing, offering Native American veterans home projects and purchases on tribal land and authorizing the VA to provide grants for transitional housing for all veterans. It also bolsters mental health care for veterans, increases coverage for veterans seeking alternatives to nursing home care, funds at-home services, covers ambulance rides to the VA and provides more options for veterans who need a caretaker, among a long list of other health services. And the bill includes efforts to increase education through expanding scholarship access and modernizing educational assistance tools. Elizabeth Dole Foundation CEO Steve Schwab said his organization has been working “for more than a year to pass this transformative legislation for the millions of veterans, caregivers, survivors, and families we serve.” Schwab said in a statement he “will push for swift passage in the Senate to follow so that we can get this to the President’s desk to sign.
32 state attorneys general call on Congress to pass Kids Online Safety Act A bipartisan coalition of more than 30 attorney generals is urging Congress to pass the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) this year, stating the legislation will “establish better safeguards for minors online.” In a letter sent to leadership offices in the House and Senate, the 32 attorneys general said they are concerned about the negative impacts “prolific internet usage” has on children. “We are acutely aware of the threats minors face on social media. Many social media platforms target minors, resulting in a national youth mental health catastrophe,” the letter, led by Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti (R), stated. “These platforms make their products addictive to minor users, and then profit from selling minor user data to advertisers,” the letter continued. “These platforms fail to disclose the addicting nature of their products, nor the harms associated with increased social media use. Instead, minor users receive endless tailored and toxic content.” The letter comes as KOSA faces an uncertain future in the House, where leadership has expressed concerns the bill would censor conservative voices or overstep authority. KOSA, which passed the Senate in a 91-3 vote last summer, is intended to boost online privacy and safety for children. It would create regulations for the kinds of features tech and social media companies offer kids online and aims to reduce the addictive nature and mental health impact of these platforms. To make their case for KOSA, the attorneys general pointed to the investigations and lawsuits led by many of their offices against Meta and TikTok for alleged harm to minors. More than a dozen states and the District of Columbia filed suit against TikTok last month, alleging the platform exploits and harms young users and “deceives” the public about these dangers. Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, is similarly facing state-led suits accusing the tech giant of knowingly designing and deploying harmful features on its platforms. The attorneys general said congressional passage of KOSA will aid state-level efforts by mandating social media platforms have the strongest safety settings by default and allowing kids and their parents or guardians to opt out of the “most addictive product features” and algorithmic recommendations. The bill would also give parents new controls to “support their children and identify harmful behaviors,” and improve their reporting abilities, the state leaders noted.
Nancy Mace introduces bill to bar trans women from Capitol restrooms -- Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) on Monday introduced a bill to bar transgender women from facilities on Capitol Hill that match their gender identity.The resolution, which would prohibit members, officers and employees of the House from using single-sex facilities that correspond to their gender identity, comes just a week after Rep.-elect Sarah McBride (D-Del.) made history as the first openly transgender person elected to Congress. The measure charges the House sergeant-at-arms, William McFarland, with enforcing the ban, according to text previewed by The Hill, but it is unclear how the House’s chief law enforcement officer will determine who can and cannot use the Capitol’s facilities.State laws that bar transgender people from using public restrooms that match their gender identity often rely on anonymous complaints, a notoriously unreliable enforcement mechanism. LGBTQ rights activists in May flooded a tip line designed to alert officials in Utah to possible violations of the state’s bathroom ban with thousands of false complaints.“This is a blatant attempt from far right-wing extremists to distract from the fact that they have no real solutions to what Americans are facing,” McBride said in a statement. “We should be focused on bringing down the cost of housing, health care and child care, not manufacturing culture wars.”“Delawareans sent me here to make the American dream more affordable and accessible and that’s what I’m focused on,” she said.Mace is currently in talks with leadership regarding how to bring the measure to the floor, a source familiar with the matter told The Hill.The congresswoman initially planned to call her legislation to the floor as a privileged resolution on Monday evening, the source said, a gambit that would have forced leadership to stage a vote on the measure within two legislative days.But Mace scrapped those plans because of ongoing negotiations with leadership regarding the best way to pass the legislation, the source said. Mace is pushing for the measure to be included in the rules package for the 119th Congress, or for it to be brought to the floor and voted on as a stand-alone rule outside the package.If the bill, however, is not included in the 119th Congress rules package or brought to the floor as a stand-alone rule, Mace would force a vote on the legislation, the source said.
House Republicans signal support for proposal to ban bathroom access for 1st transgender member (AP) — House Speaker Mike Johnson signaled support Tuesday for a Republican effort to ban Democrat Sarah McBride — the first transgender person to be elected to Congress — from using women’s restrooms in the Capitol once she’s sworn into office next year.“We’re not going to have men in women’s bathrooms,” Johnson told The Associated Press. “I’ve been consistent about that with anyone I’ve talked to about this.”Johnson earlier in the day emphasized the need to “treat all persons with dignity and respect,” adding, “This is an issue that Congress has never had to address before, and we’re going to do that in deliberate fashion with member consensus on it.”A resolution proposed Monday by GOP Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina would prohibit any lawmakers and House employees from “using single-sex facilities other than those corresponding to their biological sex.” Mace said the bill is aimed specifically at McBride, who was elected to the House this month from Delaware.The debate over whether transgender people should be allowed to use the bathrooms that align with their gender identity has been prevalent across the U.S. and was a focal point of President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign. At least 11 states have adopted laws barring transgender girls and women from girls and women’s bathrooms at public schools, and in some cases other government facilities.“I’m absolutely, 100% gonna stand in the way of any man who wants to be in a women’s restroom, in our locker rooms, in our changing rooms,” Mace said told reporters Tuesday. The second-term congresswoman added that Johnson assured her the bathroom provision would be included in any changes to House rules for the next Congress.
Mike Johnson Bans Transgenders From House Bathrooms After 1st Trans Lawmaker Elected - House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is banning transgender individuals from bathrooms on the House side of the Capitol Complex regardless of their gender identity.The move comes after the election of Rep-elect Sarah McBride (D-DE), who will become the first transgender member of Congress."All single-sex facilities in the Capitol and House Office Buildings (like restrooms, changing rooms, and locker rooms) are reserved only for individuals of that biological sex," Johnson said of women with johnsons, adding "Like all policies, it's enforceable. We have single-sex facilities for a reason. Women deserve women's only spaces.""We're not anti-anyone. We're pro-woman. I think it's an important policy for us to continue. It's always been, I guess, an unwritten policy, but now it's in writing," Johnson continued.The move comes after Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) introduced a resolution to ban transgender women from women's bathrooms in the House.As Axios notes, Mace pushed Johnson to include her measure, which charges the House sergeant-at-arms with enforcing the ban.Biological men do not belong in private women’s spaces. Period. Full stop. End of story. pic.twitter.com/IhR7kExkBU— Rep. Nancy Mace (@RepNancyMace) November 18, 2024Meanwhile, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) told colleagues at a Tuesday closed-door GOP conference meeting that she might get into a "physical altercation" if she's forced to share the bathroom with a trans woman.In a Monday statement, McBride, a woman with a penis, said "This is a blatant attempt from far right-wing extremists to distract from the fact that they have no real solutions to what Americans are facing."
Trump urges Senate GOP to block Biden's last judicial nominees -President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday pushed his fellow Republicans in the Senate to stop Democrats from confirming any more of President Joe Biden's judicial nominees."The Democrats are trying to stack the Courts with Radical Left Judges on their way out the door," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post."Republican Senators need to Show Up and Hold the Line — No more Judges confirmed before Inauguration Day!" he wrote.Democrats will lose their narrow Senate majority on Jan. 3. Trump is set to take office on Jan. 20. The Senate has confirmed 216 of Biden's nominees to the federal judiciary. The most recent addition, Judge Embry Kidd, was confirmed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 11th Circuit on Monday.Biden has put forward 261 total judicial nominees, the White House said in a Nov. 8 press release announcing his 56th round of hopefuls.There are currently 45 total vacancies in the federal judiciary. That is less than half as many openings as when Trump took office in 2017.Trump appointed 227 judges during his first term. Biden is on pace to surpass that number, with about two dozen nominees currently awaiting final confirmation or pending before the Senate Judiciary Committee.With the clock running out, Democrats are working overtime to seat Biden's judges.Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said on theSenate floor Tuesday morning that he has taken steps toward confirming 12 more judges since the end of last week."We're not done. There are more judges to consider and confirm. We're going to spend the rest of this week and the rest of this year focused on confirming them," Schumer said.Republicans may be able to slow Democrats' efforts to a crawl. They managed to create hours of delays on Monday night, by forcing lengthy roll-call votes on minor procedural motions that normally take a fraction of the time.Incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., told ABC News he would continue to bog down the nomination process."If Sen. Schumer thought Senate Republicans would just roll over and allow him to quickly confirm multiple Biden-appointed judges to lifetime jobs in the final weeks of the Democrat majority, he thought wrong," Thune told ABC.Some Democrats say they're up for the fight."I was on the Senate floor until almost midnight last night voting to confirm President Biden's judicial nominees," Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., wrote on X."We'll keep doing this until the clock runs out to confirm as many qualified Judges as we can & deliver for the people who elected us to stand up for their values," Murray wrote.
Senate expects late night to approve judicial nominees -The Senate is set for a late night on Wednesday, as Democrats attempt to shepherd through a number of judicial nominees to fill vacancies weeks before they hand over control of the upper chamber to Republicans in January. The chamber is set to hold votes that could last into Thursday as part of the push, marking the second night where members will be burning the midnight oil. That judicial offensive kicked off on Monday, when Democrats unexpectedly sought to advance more than a dozen judges, including a highly contentious circuit court nominee. That prompted Republicans to pump the brakes and make life arduous for their colleagues by holding procedural votes to switch the chamber from executive to legislative session and back again, dragging out the votes in the process. The process will happen once again Wednesday night. “We’ll continue working on judges throughout the day and into this evening,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) during his floor remarks. “We have a lot of excellent nominees to work through, so I ask my colleagues to be flexible, to be ready to stay late and to keep the votes moving quickly.” On top of the judicial votes taken Wednesday morning and early afternoon, senators are set to vote on a trio of resolutions offered by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) that would block transfers of tank rounds, mortars and bomb guidance kits to Israel. This set will start around 6 p.m. Those would be followed by a vote on Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-Ky.) resolution that would block the Biden administration from canceling more than $4.5 billion in repayments by Ukraine to the U.S. Judicial votes are expected to eventually follow on the nominations of Sparkle Sooknanan and Brian Murphy to become district judges for the districts of D.C. and Massachusetts, respectively. One source noted that the list represented the current plan, but that it could be altered depending on changes in attendance. As they have all week, absences are expected to play a role once again for Republicans, which paved the way for a number of judicial nominees to win confirmation this week. Headlining that list was the vote on Embry Kidd, who was confirmed to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals on Monday when five Senate Republicans were no-shows. If they had all shown up, the GOP could have defeated the nomination. The same situation came into play on Wednesday, when Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) separately voted against two district court nominees, leaving Democrats with only 50 votes and unable to break a tie, as Vice President Harris is in Hawaii. However, not all Senate GOP members were present. Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) missed both, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) missed the morning vote. Cruz returned to Capitol Hill around lunchtime after traveling back from West Palm Beach, Fla., earlier in the day. He traveled with President-elect Trump on Tuesday for the SpaceX rocket launch in Brownsville, Texas. Braun has been attending a conference for incoming governors, two GOP sources said. He did not seek reelection to the Senate and will take over as governor of Indiana next month. Republicans were hopping mad about the voting absences on Monday and Tuesday, which were headlined by Vice President-elect JD Vance and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), President-elect Trump’s choice to run the State Department. “Not personally or directly. Just generally,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) when asked if he got any guff from his colleagues at lunch about missing votes on Tuesday as he traveled with Cruz to see the rocket launch. “We just had a good discussion about it now about making sure with some of these we actually have a shot at blocking, at making sure we can be here,” Cramer said. “I think there’s pretty much a renewed commitment to everybody being here.”
Another Psychopath For US Secretary Of State -Caitlin Johnstone - Marco Rubio will be joining a long list of psychopaths as the next US secretary of state. A few of Trump’s cabinet picks might have a hard time getting past the Senate, but not Rubio. He’s the exact type of blood-guzzling swamp leech those creatures on Capitol Hill adore. Psychopathy is almost a job requirement for secretary of state, because the title entails a responsibility for helping to roll out the violence and tyranny which serves as the glue that holds the US empire together. As secretary of state you are responsible for whipping up international consensus for brutal economic sanctions regimes, drumming up support for heightened aggressions against the official enemies of Washington, and making up excuses for the criminal abuses of the US and its allies. This is funny in a dark sort of way because the secretary of state is supposed to be in charge of US diplomacy, which in theory should mean making peace and resolving conflicts without violence. The US Department of State was supposed to be the peacemaking counterbalance to the US Department of War (renamed the Department of Defense in 1947 because “Department of War” was a little too honest), but because the US runs a globe-spanning empire that is held together by endless violence it has little use for peacekeeping, so the State Department mostly gets used to help inflict more violence and abuse. In theory it was supposed to be the Peace Department, but in practice the US just got two War Departments. Rubio will be a suitable addition to the list of sadistic manipulators who have served in that role before him, joining the likes of Antony Blinken, Mike Pompeo, Hillary Clinton, Madeleine Albright and Henry Kissinger as the next soulless manipulator to lead the US State Department in pressing the imperial boot into the throat of the global south. I’ve had multiple Kamala supporters angrily tell me I helped Trump win by criticizing Biden’s foreign policy in the lead-up to the election. I cannot imagine being so much of an unprincipled bootlicker that I’d expect people to lie about a genocide to help someone win more votes. Nothing Trump will do inside US borders over the next four years will be the tiniest fraction as murderous, tyrannical and worthy of ferocious opposition as what Biden is doing in Gaza right now.
Trump's Ex-CDC director Robert Redfield defends Robert F. Kennedy pick - Robert Redfield, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) under the first Trump administration, gave a vote of confidence to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as potential head of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). NewsNation’s Brian Entin asked Redfield on Sunday whether there should be concerns that Kennedy, a well-known opponent of vaccines, will introduce a “no-vaccine culture” into public policy.“No Brian, I don’t think that. I mean, I’m probably one of the biggest advocates for vaccines. You mentioned that — I, when I was CDC director, I would say that I think vaccines are the greatest gift of science to modern medicine and I still believe that,” Redfield said. “Kennedy is not antivaccine. What Kennedy is about is transparency about vaccines, honest discussion about vaccines, asking for the data to show that these vaccines are safe and they’re efficacious.”Redfield served as CDC director from 2018 to 2021.Since at least 2005, Kennedy has been one of the most well-known vaccine skeptics and opponents, pushing the claim that vaccines are linked to autism despite a lack of scientific data to corroborate those claims.The Center for Countering Digital Hate named Kennedy among the top 12 spreaders of online antivaccine content.In 2021, Kennedy described the COVID-19 vaccine as the “deadliest vaccine ever made,” citing data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). VAERS, established in the 1980s, is run by both the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration. The system allows anybody to report any effects observed following vaccines, but these reports are not verified before being entered into VAERS.
RFK, Jr. Plans Attack on AMA’s Big Meal Ticket, Licensing Fees for Medical Billing Codes by Yves Smith The Financial Times has a new story on one of RFK, Jr.s’ plans, should he be approved as director of the Department of Health and Human Services. He is threatening to end Medicare and presumably also Medicaid’s use of the current medical billing code system, which goes by the acronym CPT, with a new system. The reason for proposing a change is that the AMA charges hefty licensing fees. From the Financial Times:Reforms to the CPT codes would also represent an existential threat to the AMA, which generates more than half of its $495mn annual revenues from its CPT work and other royalties payments. A person close to the lobbying group said reforms of Medicare’s billing system could unleash as much chaos as the hack of UnitedHealth’s Change Healthcare division, which affected 100mn patients and roiled healthcare providers for months.And there is no long-term contract in force to obligate Medicare to keep using the CPT codes:Medicare has no obligation to accept the proposals of the AMA committee, which meets three times a year to update physicians’ billing codes, but it typically accepts the proposals. Mind you, RFK, Jr. isn’t wrong to see these licensing fees as a form of grifting. From the Financial Times comment section:The article talks about CPT (Current Procedural Terminology) codes that were developed by the American Medical Association (AMA) and are used within the US and around 60 countries internationally.One of the issues here is the “licensing fee” that the AMA receives just for someone using their coding system which, by all reasonable accou nts, should be in the public domain. It is just a categorization system that has been amended countless times since its inception, maybe in the 1960’s or so.It would be akin to having to pay to use the Dewey Decimal System or the Library of Congress Classification system. And it may well be (or turn out in the end) that RFK, Jr. taking this issue to the press means he’ll seek to bargain the rates down instead.1Perhaps RFK, Jr. is mainly interested in defunding or defanging the AMA, which has consistently and forcefully opposed single payer. But RFK, Jr. isn’t a supporter either: A longer discussion in Jacobin from early 2023 in Populist? RFK Jr Doesn’t Even Support Medicare for All.:…it’s not hard to see why he might emerge as Biden’s most prominent challenger. On the one hand, he comes from a lineage of Democratic Party royalty. On the other hand, he’s an edgy antiestablishment “populist.”Or at least that’s how he’s been widely portrayed — both by commentators who are repulsed by Kennedy’s proclivity for anti-vaccine conspiracy theories and by those who find his criticisms of the Biden administration compelling. But the populism label is false advertising. On key issues from Israel/Palestine to Medicare for All, RFK Jr’s politics are a thousand miles away from his branding….In a recent interview with left-wing journalist Krystal Ball, Kennedy was asked whether, given the hostility to the pharmaceutical companies he often expresses while talking about vaccines, he’d be willing to support a “public option” for pharmaceuticals or maybe even the outright nationalization of the industry. He immediately dismissed this, saying, “Oh, I don’t think that’s the right thing,” and switching the subject to how to insulate regulatory agencies from the industry’s influence. He didn’t even pause to explain why it wouldn’t be the right thing. Apparently, he finds the suggestion too outlandish to even consider.It’s worth noting that Kennedy’s hostility to even providing a public option to compete with privately manufactured medicine puts him to the right of California governor Gavin Newsom, a thoroughly mainstream Democrat who recently announced that California is going to start manufacturing its own insulin later this year.In addition (unless MDs or hospital administrators can tell me otherwise), the AMA licensing of the codes is not even remotely the nexus where the abuse of billing codes come in. It’s not the codes themselves, but the massive gaming that takes place around them, the so-called upcoding. Procedures are regularly reclassified after the doctor puts in his description of the visit or procedure to depict it as more complicated and demanding than it often was. Big hospital systems are believed to regularly engage in upcoding, which is a fraud. However, it is very hard to root out because it occurs at the patient level across many records and takes many forms. A 2024 study in the Health Economic Review addressed this very topic. From its abstract: Upcoding in Medicare has been a topic of interest to economists and policy makers for nearly 40 years. While upcoding is generally understood as “billing for services at higher level of complexity than the service actually pro- vided or documented,” it has a wide range of definitions within the literature. This is largely because the financial incentives across programs and aspects under the coding control of billing specialists and providers are different, and have evolved substantially over time, as has the published literature. Arguably, the primary importance of analyzing upcoding in different parts of Medicare is to inform policy makers on the magnitude of the process and to suggest approaches to mitigate the level of upcoding. Financial estimates for upcoding in traditional Medicare (Medicare Parts A and B), are highly variable, in part reflecting differences in methodology for each of the services covered. To resolve this variability, we used summaries of audit data from the Comprehensive Error Rate Testing program for the period 2010–2019. This program uses the same methodology across all forms of service in Medicare Parts A and B, allowing direct comparisons of upcoding magnitude. On average, upcoding for hospitalization under Part A represents $656 million annually (or 0.53% of total Part A annual expenditures) during our sample period, while up- coding for physician services under Part B is $2.38 billion annually (or 2.43% of Part B annual expenditures). These numbers compare to the recent consistent estimates from multiple different entities putting upcoding in Medicare Part C at $10–15 billion annually (or approximately 2.8–4.2% of Part C annual expenditures). Upcoding for hospitalization under Medicare Part A is small, relative to overall upcoding expenditures. Needless to say, if RFK, Jr. were to press forward, and HHS had developed a replacement coding scheme, the transition would nevertheless impose serious costs on medical providers. They would not only have to implement the new coding system, but would also be running two different systems for classifying procedures, one for CPT codes for non-Medicare patients, the other the new Medicare procedure codes for Medicare patients. The next question is why did RFK, Jr. go public with this idea now? He must assume this will help and not hurt his chances of being appointed. While reducing the AMA’s lobbying budget and stopping what looks like rentierism sounds appealing, the transition costs and higher complexity for most medical providers of operating two billing approaches will increase medical administrative costs, which are already higher in the US than in other countries. But explaining that may take more than a soundbite, so perhaps RFK, Jr. and his allies will carry the day on this topic. However, if RFK, Jr. does not unpack further what he intends to do here, this proposal will provide more grist for critics who say he does not understand the medical industry and wants merely to set up bogeymen to score press points while doing actual harm if he follows through with his schemes.
What RFK Jr. could mean for LGBTQ health care - Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has expressed opposition to gender-affirming health care for transgender minors and questioned evidence linking HIV to AIDS, two issues that critics say should give senators second thoughts about confirming him as Health and Human Services secretary. While Kennedy’s vaccine skepticism has received more attention, his remarks on LGBTQ issues, including comments during a podcast last year that chemicals in drinking water could be making children gay or transgender, have also raised serious alarms. “RFK Jr.’s history of denying basic scientific truth, from the cause of AIDS to the legitimacy of transgender health care, they represent a grave threat to the health and well-being of the LGBTQ+ community, and he is poised now for one of the most powerful and consequential positions in shaping the nation’s health care and public health policies. In this context, disinformation isn’t just harmful, it is deadly,” said Alex Sheldon, executive director of GLMA, an association of LGBTQ health care professionals. Trump has said he plans to let Kennedy “go wild on health,” unnerving some LGBTQ health care providers and researchers, given Kennedy’s past statements and policy proposals. In December, Kennedy told the conservative political commentator Patrick Bet-David that transgender minors should not be able to access medications like puberty blockers and hormones “without permission,” but fell short of opposing gender-affirming care altogether or endorsing federal restrictions. By May, however, Kennedy’s position had become more conservative. He wrote on the social platform X that while individuals diagnosed with gender dysphoria “deserve compassion and respect,” he’d become “troubled” by the idea of giving puberty blockers to minors, labeling them as “repurposed castration drugs.” He also referred to transition-related surgery as “mutilation” and said such treatments should be postponed until adulthood. Major professional medical organizations say gender-affirming health care for transgender adults and minors is medically necessary and can be lifesaving — several studies link puberty blockers and hormone replacement therapy to lower rates of suicidality in transgender adolescents.
Trump picks Dr. Oz to lead massive Medicare, Medicaid agency CMS --President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday said he would nominate Dr. Mehmet Oz — celebrity TV host and former U.S. Senate candidate — as Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services administrator. CMS operates or oversees programs that provide health coverage to about 1 out of every 2 Americans, includingMedicare, Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and the Obamacare marketplace exchange Healthcare.gov. Those four programs account for $1.6 trillion in spending, or nearly 25% of the entire federal budget, which Trump highlighted in announcing the heart surgeon Oz was his pick to lead the division of the Health and Human Services Department.Trump said last week that he would nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist, as HHS secretary.Oz previously hosted "The Dr. Oz Show," a syndicated daytime television program for more than a dozen years. He was the Republican nominee for a U.S. Senate seat from Pennsylvania in 2022, losing to Sen. John Fetterman, a Democrat."America is facing a Healthcare Crisis, and there may be no Physician more qualified and capable than Dr. Oz to Make America Healthy Again," Trump said in a statement Tuesday."He is an eminent Physician, Heart Surgeon, Inventor, and World-Class Communicator, who has been at the forefront of healthy living for decades. Dr. Oz will work closely with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to take on the illness industrial complex, and all the horrible chronic diseases left in its wake."Our broken Healthcare System harms everyday Americans, and crushes our Country's budget," Trump said."Dr. Oz will be a leader in incentivizing Disease Prevention, so we get the best results in the World for every dollar we spend on Healthcare in our Great Country," Trump said. "He will also cut waste and fraud within our Country's most expensive Government Agency, which is a third of our Nation's Healthcare spend, and a quarter of our entire National Budget." Oz has dual U.S. and Turkish citizenship, as the child of Turkish immigrants. During his Senate campaign, he vowed to renounce his Turkish citizenship if elected.
Thomas Neuburger: Tulsi Gabbard’s DNI Nomination -Posted by Yves Smith - Yves here. Despite Tulsi Gabbard having loudly and consistently opposed US “regime change wars” and taking political risk to do so (like meeting with Assad), Tom Neuburger reminds us that she’s a hawk on other issues, like supporting Israel. He still comes out for her, albeit not with much enthusiasm.One other factor in favor of Gabbard is that she intends to leash and collar the CIA. Even though the CIA, along with other intelligence agencies, on paper reports to the Director of National Intelligence, in practice the CIA calls its own shots and has privileged access to the President via its daily briefings. The mere weight of numbers makes the CIA a force to be reckoned with. The DNI has 1,750 employees, while the CIA has over 21,500, and that’s before you add in a very large population of assets.Making the CIA more accountable, even if only to the President and other minders, is a very tall order. If Gabbard were nominated and made any progress, that would be a major accomplishment in and of itself. The CIA will argue it needs to operate in secret or its operations will be impaired (mind you, if it really is mainly in the regime change business, Gabbard would see that as an entirely good thing). One way to check the agency might be to release historical records largely unredacted. It would be hard to argue that anything before 1990 has any current value….save exposing how dirty the spook business really is.CNN points out that Presidential nominees are almost without exception waved through:For all the drama generated every four years by Cabinet appointments, defeat of a nominee by a vote in the Senate is extremely rare.The only time a nominee by a new president was rejected by a Senate vote occurred in 1989, when George H.W. Bush nominated John Tower, a former senator from Texas, to be his secretary of defense.Tower was undone by stories of his excessive drinking and what press reports at the time referred to as “womanizing,” and which Pentagon files back then documented as placing “special attention on the secretaries” as an arms negotiator in Geneva.On the other hand, most of Trump’s nominees are, erm, way out of band. Dr. Oz at the Center for Medicare and Medicaid services amounts to trolling. There may be enough TDS + a desire among those not afflicted to remind Trump of guardrails that the Senate might block a nominee to make a point. But I doubt there is enough coordination for that to be a plan, as opposed to desire. Will that sentiment coalesce around one candidate, or be too diffuse to create a real obstacle?In the meantime, I would very much like it it Gabbard were to use her opening statement to make a modern version of the “Have you no sense of decency, sir?” speech that brings down or at least dents Russiagate in the way Joseph Welch finished off Joe McCarthy. By Thomas Neuburger. Originally published at God’s Spies “When it comes to the war against terrorists, I’m a hawk. When it comes to counterproductive wars of regime change, I’m a dove.” —Tulsi Gabbard, 2016 Much has been written about Trump’s pick of Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence. This is perhaps the most powerful job in the National Security State — the CIA, Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and NSA all report to the DNI. The President is certainly more powerful, and the CIA chief may be as well, given that so much of what the Agency does is hidden, known only perhaps to itself. But the DNI is clearly one of the major hubs around which security happens. For this discussion, let’s focus primarily on Jeremy Scahill’s evaluation of Gabbard’s nomination. He’s gathered as many of her pluses and minuses as anyone, and Gabbard, to my eyes, is certainly a mixed nomination. Scahill on what he (and I) consider her virtues: If confirmed as the next Director of National Intelligence, Gabbard would represent one of the most unorthodox political figures to hold such a senior national security post in U.S. history. A veteran of the war in Iraq, Gabbard was elected to Congress in 2012 and emerged as a sharp critic of the U.S. forever wars launched in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. Shedenounced U.S. regime change wars, including the 2011 overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya, and consistentlyopposed U.S. support for Saudi Arabia’s scorched earth war against Yemen, which extended from Barack Obama to Donald Trump. On multiple occasions, she accused Trump of being “Saudi Arabia’s bitch,” taking orders from his Saudi “masters,” and of supporting Al Qaeda. She has called forpardoning whistleblowers Julian Assange and Edward Snowden and fought to change U.S. laws permitting domestic surveillance of Americans. These are all points in the anti-imperialist ledger. Yet she also brings this to the role: Gabbard is not an antigen infiltrating the U.S. intelligence system. Over the past four years she has fully embraced Trump’s America First posture in explaining her dissent from the elite foreign policy consensus. Gabbard also has a history of support for a slew of standard, bipartisan U.S. national security and defense policies. She has offered die-hard backing for Israel’s war against Gaza, opposed a ceasefire, and accused Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the chief facilitators of Israel’s genocidal war, of being soft on terrorism and anti-semitism. She has also argued that the U.S. and other Western nations shouldwage both a military and ideological war against what she calls “radical Islamist ideology.” She has described herself as a “hawk” when it comes to using military action against “terrorists” and has advocated using “surgical” drone strikes against terror groups, a system refined and expanded under the Obama and Trump administrations. She has praised Egyptian dictator Abdel Fatah al-Sisi for his “great courage and leadership” and, following a 2015 meeting with Sisi in Cairo, called on Obama to “take action to recognize President el-Sisi and his leadership.” In Congress, Gabbard voted to keep in place U.S. surveillance laws aimed at foreign nationals and nations and supported economic sanctions against Russia, Iran, and North Korea. There’s also this: “Gabbard also has close ties to far right Hindu nationalists with an explicitly violent anti-Muslim agenda and an alliance with Israel and extremist Zionists.” As I say, a very mixed bag.
Matt Gaetz Withdraws as Trump’s Pick for Attorney General – NY Times -Matt Gaetz, who faced a torrent of scrutiny over allegations of sex trafficking and drug use, abruptly withdrew his bid to become attorney general on Thursday in the first major political setback for President-elect Donald J. Trump since his election this month.Mr. Gaetz has consistently denied the allegations, but his prospective nomination ran into trouble in the Senate, where Republicans were deeply reluctant to confirm someone to run the same Justice Department that once investigated him on suspicion of sex trafficking an underage girl, even though no charges were brought.The collapse of Mr. Gaetz’s prospective candidacy just 16 days after the election appeared to be the earliest such failed cabinet pick in modern history and underscored the haphazard way that Mr. Trump has gone about assembling his new administration. He picked Mr. Gaetz almost on a whim last week without extensive vetting, knowing that allegations were out there, but essentially daring Senate Republicans to accept him anyway.Mr. Trump moved quickly to replace Mr. Gaetz with another conservative favorite. By the day’s end, he announced on social media that he planned to nominate Pam Bondi, the former attorney general of Florida and one of his defense lawyers in his first impeachment trial, to be U.S. attorney general.What remained unclear on Thursday was whether Mr. Gaetz’s withdrawal would embolden Senate Republicans to challenge other contentious cabinet choices, such as Pete Hegseth, the former Fox News host tapped for defense secretary, or Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,the conspiracy theorist and vaccine skeptic selected for secretary of health and human services.
Trump chooses loyalist Pam Bondi for attorney general pick after Matt Gaetz withdraws (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump said Thursday he will nominate former Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi to lead the Justice Department, turning to a longtime ally after his first choice, Matt Gaetz, withdrew his name from consideration amid scrutiny over sex trafficking allegations. Bondi has been an outspoken defender of Trump. She was one of his lawyers during his first impeachment trial, when he was accused — but not convicted — of abusing his power as he tried to condition U.S. military assistance to Ukraine on that country investigating then-former Vice President Joe Biden. And she was among a group of Republicans who showed up to support Trump at his New York hush money criminal trial that ended in May with a conviction on 34 felony counts.“For too long, the partisan Department of Justice has been weaponized against me and other Republicans - Not anymore,” Trump said in a social media post. “Pam will refocus the DOJ to its intended purpose of fighting Crime, and Making America Safe Again.”Gaetz stepped aside amid continued fallout over a federal sex trafficking investigation that cast doubt on his ability to be confirmed as the nation’s chief federal law enforcement officer. Gaetz’s vehemently denied the allegations, but his nomination stunned many career lawyers inside the Justice Department. Gaetz, who passed the bar but barely worked as a lawyer, had very little relevant experience for the job. Bondi comes with years of legal work under her belt and that other trait Trump prizes above all: loyalty. The hasty withdrawal by Gaetz and quick pivot to Bondi were the latest examples of Trump’s tumultuous decision-making as he rushes out nominations — some of questionable character and credentials — at a breakneck pace without the government vetting that is typical of presidential transitions. It’s an omen that despite running his most organized campaign for the White House this year, his return to the Oval Office might feature the same sort of drama that permeated his first term.
Matt Gaetz says he doesn't plan to rejoin Congress after withdrawing as Trump's pick for attorney general — Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., said Friday that he doesn't plan to rejoin Congress after he withdrew his name from consideration to be President-elect Donald Trump's attorney general amid sexual misconduct allegations."I'm still going to be in the fight, but it's going to be from a new perch. I do not intend to join the 119th Congress," Gaetz said in an interview with conservative commentator Charlie Kirk. “There are a number of fantastic Floridians who stepped up to run for my seat, people who have inspired with their heroism, with their public service. And I’m actually excited to see Northwest Florida go to new heights and have great representation,” he added. Gaetz, who was first elected to Florida’s state House when he was 28 years old, noted he has been in elected office for 14 years,“I’m 42 now, and I’ve got other goals in life that I’m eager to pursue — my wife and my family — and so I’m going to be fighting for President Trump," he said. "I’m going to be doing whatever he asks of me, as I always have. But I think that eight years is probably enough time in the United States Congress.”Gaetz said it seems like “a pretty poetic time to allow that great new blood to come in, to allow my district to have high-quality representation.”He also alluded to playing a continued role in Trump's plans, without getting into specifics."We need a leadership structure under President Trump that’s going to allow for durability of our movement and the ability to continue this great realignment of our politics, and so I’ll play a part in that," he said. "I plan to be a big voice, but maybe not as an elected member of the government."
Andrew McCabe: No part of FBI would be safe under Kash Patel --Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe said the bureau would be endangered if Kash Patel, a former aide to President-elect Trump, is nominated and confirmed to lead the agency.“No part of the FBI’s mission is safe with Kash Patel in any position of leadership in the FBI, and certainly not in the deputy director’s job,” McCabe told CNN’s Kaitlan Collins on Thursday evening. “The scope of authority is enormous.“If you enter into that position with nothing more than a desire to disrupt and destroy the organization, there is a lot of damage someone like Kash Patel could do,” he said.Patel has remained loyal to the president-elect after serving as a senior adviser to the then-acting director of national intelligence, and chief of staff to former acting Defense SecretaryChris Miller, during Trump’s first term. But he has never been directly employed by the FBI.Earlier in the interview, McCabe mentioned the years of experience within the agency that is required to understand its complex structure. “I can tell you from my own experience: There is no way I could have successfully performed in that role without having spent the first 10 years of my career doing criminal work in the FBI,” he said on CNN’s “The Source.”Former FBI Special Agent Daniel Brunner also said Patel’s leadership would do “massive damage” to the agency. “Putting someone like Kash Patel in the position of director of the FBI is, I believe, extremely, extremely dangerous because … his resume isn’t traditional,” Brunner said Sunday on CNN.However, Trump’s choice is on par with other appointments. Some have questioned the backgrounds of former “Fox & Friends” host Pete Hegseth, who was nominated to lead the Defense Department, and former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who was tapped for director of national intelligence.The president-elect has prioritized a reformatory administration with the help of billionaire Elon Musk and biotech entrepreneur — and former GOP primary rival —Vivek Ramaswamy, who will co-head the new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), which was created to do away with “wasteful” federal agencies.
Trump’s DOE pick scorns renewables, but not all of them - Chris Wright is a fossil fuel evangelist who nevertheless supports both geothermal and nuclear power. Just don’t call them clean energy. President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Energy secretary has spent years claiming fossil fuels can combat poverty, improve women’s rights and increase American productivity. At the same, the fracking executive has waged a public campaign to distort climate science and spread falsehoods about global warming on podcasts, televised debates and before Congress. “The real facts of climate change, it’s a real issue that is slow-moving, its impacts are quite modest today compared to so many other bigger issues,” Wright said on a podcast called “Power Hour,” which is hosted by a fossil fuel supporter. “And I think the scientists working on it, they know that, too, but … it’s a source of funding for them.” Yet even as he has downplayed the consequences of a warming planet, Wright has expressed support for low-carbon-emission technologies. His company, Liberty Energy, invested in Fervo Energy, an advanced geothermal company that uses fracking technology to unlock the Earth’s heat to make power. And Wright sits on the board of Oklo, a startup developing small modular nuclear reactors. In that, Wright represents the new sort of oilman: One who says climate change is a problem, just not one that requires fixing immediately. He embraces low-carbon technologies, but lambastes traditional renewables such as wind and solar. In short, Wright believes the benefits of burning fossil fuels far outweigh the costs. “He frames the problem in a way that a big chunk of the climate action world doesn’t like,” said Bobby Tudor, who did business with Wright’s company as the founder and former CEO of Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co., an investment bank active in the oil field. “He frames the problem as a dual challenge,” he added. “We have to provide reliable, affordable and secure energy while at the same time innovating and driving down [carbon dioxide] emissions in the system. If we don’t get the first part, then we’ll never get to the second part. I am entirely sympathetic to that framing.” If confirmed, Wright’s next stop will be the Department of Energy, which has a more limited role over the country’s energy system than its name might suggest. The agency traditionally has focused on early stage technological research, oversight of the country’s nuclear stockpile and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Wright will not be opening federal lands to oil drilling if confirmed by the Senate — that job will fall to the possible incoming Interior secretary, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R). Much more likely, Wright will fulfill Trump’s agenda by lifting a permitting pause on new liquefied natural gas terminals.
Meet the ‘great deregulator’ Trump chose to lead EPA - A Trump ally with a limited environmental record will have the task of undoing President Joe Biden’s climate legacy.Former President Donald Trump announced Monday that he had chosen former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) to head EPA in his second term. In doing so, Trump opted for a personal ally, fierce defender and frequent visitor to Mar-a-Lago over a policy wonk with deep knowledge of regulatory policy.Industry advocates and conservatives applauded the choice, arguing that Zeldin — who ran a competitive race two years ago against New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul — is a seasoned political operator capable both of leading Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda and of selling it to the American public.“I think he has all the ability and political savvy to be a great deregulator,” said Myron Ebell, who led Trump’s EPA transition team eight years ago. “I think he’s capable of mastering the technical side of it, but he also will be a great advocate in public for what they’re trying to do.”Ebell praised Zeldin for running a “straight MAGA” race for governor in deep blue New York, where he targeted the state’s ambitious climate laws as bad for Empire State manufacturing interests. Hochul defeated him by five points.Frank Maisano, a senior principal at lobbying firm Bracewell, also spoke approvingly of Zeldin as a fixture in “Trump World” who is “totally with the president’s agenda.”“The EPA Administrator last time … you had somebody who wasn’t politically savvy and was an attorney general who just ramrodded his policy through and didn’t have any real political acumen in the space,” said Maisano, referring to Trump’s first EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt.“The agenda, I believe, needs to be radical, and there will be a lot of opposition from the mainstream media, environmental groups, the Democrats in Congress,” said Maisano. “The job of deregulation is going to need someone who can also be a good defender and explainer of what they’re trying to do and what it will accomplish, and why it’s important and why it’s not wrecking the environment.”The Trump EPA is expected to roll back a host of Biden-era climate regulations for power plants, oil and gas, vehicles and refrigerants. Most of those will have to be replaced with laxer standards. It’s a work plan that takes time and requires the agency to build a regulatory record that will stand up in court. During the first Trump administration, Pruitt, then the EPA administrator, tried to undo the Obama administration’s climate and air quality rules. Many of those early rollbacks were overturned in court. Trump’s second EPA administrator, veteran environmental lawyer Andrew Wheeler, was seen as a steadier hand and architect of more durable policies. Wheeler made it known earlier this year that he’d be open to returning to EPA if Trump won reelection. But in choosing Zeldin, the former and future president has chosen a representative who defended him during his first impeachment trial over someone with deep experience in conservative environmental policy. On Monday, Zeldin made it clear that his primary mission will be deregulation. In a Fox News interview shortly after he was announced as Trump’s EPA pick, Zeldin said he would side with industry over public health protections. “There are regulations that the left wing of this country have been advocating through regulatory power that ends up causing businesses to go in the wrong direction,” he said in the Fox News interview Monday. “And President Trump, when he called me up — gosh, he was rattling off 15, 20 different priorities, clear focus. He wasn’t reading off of some sheet. It’s the top of his head.” Zeldin started his political career in 2010, when he was first elected to the New York state senate. In Albany, he made veterans affairs a top priority as well as cutting business taxes. He was elected to a conservative House district in Long Island in 2014. Zeldin has little background in energy or environmental regulations but has long been critical of Democrats’ climate policy. Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), who co-chaired the Climate Solutions Caucus, said Zeldin showed interest in environmental issues and a willingness to “work across the aisle.” But environmental groups quickly attacked Zeldin’s surprise nomination.“Naming an unqualified, anti-American worker who opposes efforts to safeguard our clean air and water lays bare Donald Trump’s intentions to, once again, sell our health, our communities, our jobs, and our future out to corporate polluters,” Sierra Club President Ben Jealous said in a statement. “Our lives, our livelihoods, and our collective future cannot afford Lee Zeldin — or anyone who seeks to carry out a mission antithetical to the EPA’s mission.” In Congress, Zeldin pushed for shellfish protections in the Long Island sound and opposed Trump’s offshore drilling plan while running for his second term. He also voted against a Republican effort to prevent the Department of Defense from considering climate change in its planning. During his unsuccessful run for New York governor in 2022, Zeldin got a larger vote share than any Republican candidate in recent years. He ran on a plan to expand fossil fuel energy, proposing to overturn the state’s ban on fracking. Zeldin said that the ban, which former Gov. Andrew Cuomo put into place in 2014 and state lawmakers made permanent in 2020, was harming rural parts of the state.“When I talk about reversing the state’s ban on the safe extraction of natural gas and approving new pipelines, that’s a lot of jobs, that’s a lot of revenue,” Zeldin told POLITICO in 2022.After he lost that race, Zeldin became chair of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Institute, an influential think tank of Trump administration veterans created after his 2020 loss. Linda McMahon, the group’s board chair, is now the co-chair of Trump’s transition team and has outsize power picking key personnel to staff the administration. AFPI has prepared dozens of executive orders for Trump’s first day in office.
Here’s who gave campaign cash to EPA nominee Lee Zeldin - Lee Zeldin, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead EPA, has relied heavily on industries including finance and real estate in his past campaigns for office. The Republican former Long Island congressman and unsuccessful New York gubernatorial candidate has not gotten significant campaign cash from energy or other interests that could complicate his leadership at EPA, a review of federal and state campaign finance records show. That’s in contrast to some previous Republican EPA leaders, like Scott Pruitt, who received significant campaign support from oil and natural gas companies, including a $50,000 contribution from the coal mining company then known as Murray Energy. If confirmed, Zeldin will head an agency under Trump that will likely seek to undo many of President Joe Biden’s environment and climate policies and to stymie implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act. Zeldin has brought in big money from donors like cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, casino magnate Steve Wynn, investment adviser Matthew Bruderman and private equity investor Thomas Tisch. He also brought in smaller amounts from leaders in the trash and recycling business, like metals executive and climate change advocate Andrew Sabin, waste management mogul Anthony Lomangino, and the owners of Gershow Recycling, as well as Adam Beren, the head of oil and natural gas producer Berexco.
Trump picks Wall St CEO Lutnick to run Commerce, oversee USTR, tariffs (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Tuesday he will nominate Wall Street CEO Howard Lutnick to lead his trade and tariff strategy as head of the Commerce Department, the agency that has become the U.S. weapon of choice against China's tech sector.Lutnick, the head of brokerage firm Cantor Fitzgerald, will also have "additional direct responsibility" for the U.S. Trade Representative's office, Trump said in a statement.Trump's transition team did not respond to requests for clarity on Lutnick's responsibilities, including whether he would also serve as U.S. Trade Representative, traditionally the top U.S. trade policy job.The USTR reports directly to the president and different committees in Congress handle oversight for the two agencies.With the appointments, Trump taps a long-time friend who backs the Republican's vision to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. and promote the adoption of cryptocurrency. Lutnick also runs brokerage BGC Group and is chairman of Newmark Group, a commercial real estate services firm, and FMX, a platform owned by some of Wall Street's biggest banks and traders. Shares of BGC fell 2.6%. Lutnick's appointment was a setback to two other Trump supporters who had vied for the Commerce job, former small business administrator Linda McMahon and ex-USTR Robert Lighthizer.CNN reported that McMahon, who along with Lutnick co-chaired Trump's transition team, is expected to be named education secretary, heading a department that Trump proposed abolishing during his campaign. Lighthizer, who also had been considered an early candidate for Treasury secretary, could not be reached for comment.The Commerce Department oversees a sprawling array of functions with nearly 47,000 employees, from the U.S. Census Bureau to weather forecasting, ocean navigation and investment promotion.Its trade-related functions have grown in importance in recent years. They include authority over export controls on sensitive U.S. technologies, which have put it at the center of trade conflicts with China, as well as investigating anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases that often result in punitive tariffs to protect domestic industries.Trump used Commerce's authority over the "Section 232" national security trade statute to underpin his 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum and may invoke it again to impose broad global tariffs on imports, trade experts say.To rebuild the U.S. manufacturing base, Trump has vowed to impose new tariffs of at least 60% on Chinese imports and 10%-20% on goods from elsewhere - moves that economists say would upend global trade flows and raise costs.Fearing Beijing could weaponize American technology to strengthen its military, both the Trump and Biden administrations have used Commerce Department authorities aggressively to impose regulations to halt the flow of U.S. and foreign technology to China - with a special emphasis on semiconductors and the equipment used to make them.Over the past two years, the U.S. has issued sweeping export controls on advanced chips and chipmaking equipment to China, which has limited its access to cutting-edge chips for artificial intelligence and equipment needed to produce the next generation of semiconductors.Unlike other members of Trump's inner circle, Lutnick does not speak about China often. He is a big proponent of tariffs, especially aimed at China. According to the New York Times, the investment banker said in a podcast interview last month: "Don't tax our people. Make money instead. Put tariffs on China and make $400 billion."Cantor Fitzgerald, with offices in Hong Kong, underwrote Chinese biotech firm Adlai Nortye's Nasdaq initial public offering last year. It was the first Chinese listing since Beijing implemented new rules requiring companies in China to obtain a special filing before going public overseas.The next commerce secretary will enforce a range of rules put in place to hamper China's development of artificial intelligence and keep some of its biggest tech firms, including Huawei Technologies and Semiconductor Manufacturing International, several steps behind their global competition in key technologies.As co-chair of Trump's transition team, Lutnick had been seen for weeks as a possible candidate for a position in the Trump administration, includingTreasury secretary.A native of New York City's Long Island suburbs with a background in trading and real estate, Lutnick has been one of Trump's top Wall Street advocates, hosting fundraisers and touting his policies in the media.
FCC chair to step down on Trump’s inauguration -Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chair Jessica Rosenworcel announced Wednesday she will depart the regulatory agency on Inauguration Day when President-elect Trump returns to the White House. Her departure from the post and the FCC was largely expected, with the announcement coming just days after Trump revealed he tapped Commissioner Brendan Carr as the agency’s next permanent chair. Rosenworcel, a Democrat, began at the FCC in 2012 and was named the permanent FCC chair in October 2021 under President Biden, making her the first woman to hold the permanent position. “I want to thank President Biden for entrusting me with the responsibility to guide the FCC during a time when communications technology is a part of every aspect of civic and commercial life,” Rosenworcel wrote in a statement. The FCC is an independent agency regulating TV and radio broadcasters, telephone and internet service providers and satellites. She recounted how her start as the FCC’s permanent chair was during the height of the pandemic, which “made clear how important the work of the FCC is and how essential it is for us to build a digital future that works for everyone.” “I am proud to have served at the FCC alongside some of the hardest working and dedicated public servants I have ever known,” she continued. Rosenworcel touted the FCC’s creation of the largest broadband affordability program, which connected more than 23 million households to high-speed internet, and the establishment of the first-ever Space Bureau focused on the agency’s space policy. She also led the push to restore net neutrality rules, which forced principal internet service providers to treat all information that travels through their networks equally. The rules, first approved in 2015, were repealed under Trump in 2017. Under Rosenworcel’s leadership, the commission voted earlier this year to restore the rules, which are now being challenged in court. Carr, who has served as an FCC commissioner since 2017, will take over Rosenworcel’s post upon confirmation by the Senate. Upon her departure, Trump will appoint another commissioner, paving the way for a Republican majority.
Trump selects Linda McMahon to lead Department of Education – which he has vowed to shutter -- President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday selected his transition co-chair, Linda McMahon, to serve as secretary of the Department of Education – an agency he and his allies have pledged to abolish. McMahon, 76, previously served as the head of the Small Business Administration during Trump’s first term and she is the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, a company she started with her husband, Vince McMahon.“Linda will use her decades of Leadership experience, and deep understanding of both Education and Business, to empower the next Generation of American Students and Workers, and make America Number One in Education in the World,” Trump wrote in his announcement.The president-elect, 78, indicated that he will task McMahon with giving states a larger role in education policy and that she will pursue the expansion of school choice nationwide.“Linda will fight tirelessly to expand ‘Choice’ to every State in America, and empower parents to make the best Education decisions for their families,” Trump said, noting that McMahon has been a “fierce advocate for Parents’ Rights” through her work as the chairwoman of the America First Policy Institute think tank.
Trump Picks Linda McMahon, Named in 'Ring Boy' Sex Abuse Case, to Run Education Dept. --President-elect Donald Trump nominated his transition co-chair Linda McMahon to serve as secretary of the Department of Education. McMahon, a major Republican donor and former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE), headed the Small Business Administration during Trump’s first term. After donating a reported $814,600 to Trump’s campaign as of July, McMahon was made transition team chair in August.“Linda will use her decades of Leadership experience, and deep understanding of both Education and Business, to empower the next Generation of American Students and Workers, and make America Number One in Education in the World. We will send Education BACK TO THE STATES, and Linda will spearhead that effort,” Trump said in a statement on Tuesday.The news arrives amid a lawsuit filed against Linda and her husband, Vince McMahon. The couple co-founded WWE and were named in a civil suit filed in October by five anonymous plaintiffs who worked as “ring boys” for the company as young teenagers in the Eighties. The plaintiffs alleged that they were groomed and sexually abused by ring crew boss Mel Phillips on the company’s watch.As CEO, Linda spearheaded WWE’s transformation from a small wrestling entertainment company into a publicly traded media empire. She stepped down as CEO in 2009.Vince McMahon is facing separate allegations of sexual abuse and trafficking. In January, Janel Grant filed a lawsuit against Vince, WWE head of talent relations John Laurinaitis, and the wrestling company outlining years of alleged sexual assaults. In May, Grant’s attorney said sheagreed to pause her case pending a federal investigation.
Donald Trump picks ex-GOP Rep. Sean Duffy for transportation secretary - President-elect Trump said Monday that his selection for the role of Transportation secretary in his upcoming administration is former Rep. and Fox Business host Sean Duffy (R-Wis.). “I am pleased to announce that former Congressman Sean Duffy, from the Great State of Wisconsin, is nominated to serve as the Secretary of Transportation,” Trump said in a statement. “Sean has been a tremendous and well-liked public servant, starting his career as a District Attorney for Ashland, Wisconsin, and later elected to the U.S. House of Representatives for Wisconsin’s 7th Congressional District.” Duffy left the House in late 2019 in the wake of learning that one of his children had a heart condition. He has historically been a supporter of the president-elect, defending Trump’scontroversial 2017 executive order on immigration imposing a 90-day ban on nationals from seven mostly Muslim countries from coming into the U.S. “What’s wrong with a pause? We’ve having a pause for 90 days. Why is that so radical?” Duffy said on CNN’s “New Day” at the time. In his Monday statement, Trump said Duffy “was a respected voice and communicator in the Republican Conference, advocating for Fiscal Responsibility, Economic Growth, and Rural Development” while “in Congress.” Trump also urged Duffy to run for Wisconsin governor in 2022, saying he was trying “hard to get very popular and capable Former Congressman Sean Duffy of Wisconsin to run for Governor” in late 2021. Duffy said later in early 2022 that he would not run for the Badger State’s top office. “Hopefully I’m not riding off into the sunset,” Duffy said on 1130 WISN, a talk radio station. “I’m just running into the sunset right now. If an opportunity presents itself, I’d like to come back and partake in Wisconsin politics.” Duffy currently co-hosts a show on Fox Business in its 6 p.m. hour called “The Bottom Line.” He has been a contributor to the network since 2020. The former GOP congressman is married to fellow Fox host Rachel Campos Duffy, whom he met on a reality television show. She serves as a co-host for “Fox & Friends Weekend.” Campos Duffy is a former co-host of Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, while Sean Duffy is the fourth current or former Fox host to be tapped for a position in the president-elect’s administration.
TSA chief says he wants to serve in second Trump administration -- Transportation Security Administration (TSA) chief David Pekoske said earlier this week that he would like to continue serving under President-elect Trump. CBS’s Tony Dokoupil asked Pekoske if he anticipates staying in the role when Trump returns to the White House. “Yeah, I hope to stay,” he replied in the interview Tuesday on “CBS Mornings.” “I love the role,” Pekoske continued. “I think it’s important for continuity in TSA to run the second term to its conclusion.” He was first confirmed by unanimous consent in 2017, during Trump’s first term in office. In September 2022, he was confirmed again by the Senate for a second five-year term via a 77-18 vote. “We’re doing a lot of improvements in TSA,” Pekoske said Tuesday. “We’ve made a lot of technology investment, we’ve made a lot of investments in our workforce, and we have great partners with airports, airlines and all the surface transportation systems like gas pipelines and rail systems.” Trump’s rhetoric since Election Day — when he beat Vice President Harris — suggests he is looking for sweeping changes in the federal government. In remarks a day after his victory, he said “we’re going to fix everything about our country.” Thus far, his Cabinet and key leadership nominations have varied widely from his first administration and those of President Biden. Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has emerged a staunch Trump ally, echoed the president-elect’s remarks in a post on the social platform X following the election, saying Americans “gave @realDonaldTrump a crystal clear mandate for change tonight.” Last week, Trump announced Musk and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy as the heads of a new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), which aims to “slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures,” as well as restructure federal agencies. He was first confirmed by unanimous consent in 2017, during Trump’s first term in office. In September 2022, he was confirmed again by the Senate for a second five-year term via a 77-18 vote.“We’re doing a lot of improvements in TSA,” Pekoske said Tuesday. “We’ve made a lot of technology investment, we’ve made a lot of investments in our workforce, and we have great partners with airports, airlines and all the surface transportation systems like gas pipelines and rail systems.”Trump’s rhetoric since Election Day — when he beat Vice President Harris — suggests he is looking for sweeping changes in the federal government. In remarks a day after his victory, he said “we’re going to fix everything about our country.”Thus far, his Cabinet and key leadership nominations have varied widely from his first administration and those of President Biden.Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has emerged a staunch Trump ally, echoed the president-elect’s remarks in a post on the social platform X following the election, saying Americans “gave @realDonaldTrump a crystal clear mandate for change tonight.”Last week, Trump announced Musk and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy as the heads of a new “Department of Government Efficiency” (DOGE), which aims to “slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures,” as well as restructure federal agencies.
Trump picks congresswoman Lori Chavez-Deremer to be labor secretary -- U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Friday he has chosen congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon to serve as his labor secretary. Trump said Chavez-DeRemer has worked “tirelessly” with business and labor to build the U.S. workforce and support Americans. “I look forward to working with her to create tremendous opportunity for American Workers, to expand training and apprenticeships, to grow wages and improve working conditions, to bring back our Manufacturing jobs,” Trump said in a statement. Chavez-DeRemer, who was elected to Congress in 2022, lost her seat to Democrat Janelle Bynum earlier this month.
Trump nominates Scott Bessent to lead Treasury in flurry of picks -- Donald Trump has nominated Scott Bessent to lead the US Treasury Department, one of the most influential roles in government with wide oversight of tax policy, public debt, international finance and sanctions. The selection ends what has proven to be one of the more protracted decisions for the president-elect as he assembles his team for a second term. Bessent, a Wall Street financier who once worked for George Soros, was an early backer of Trump's 2024 bid and brings a relatively conventional resume to the role. The 62-year-old's nomination on Friday evening kicked-off a series of cabinet announcements and White House appointments that leaves Trump's top team almost complete ahead of his return to the presidency in January. "Scott is widely respected as one of the World’s foremost International Investors and Geopolitical and Economic Strategists," Trump said in his announcement on Truth Social. "[He] has long been a strong advocate of the America First Agenda," he said, adding that Bessent would "support my Policies that will drive US Competitiveness, and stop unfair Trade imbalances." Bessent has made it well known that he wants to extend tax cuts made in Mr Trump's first term in office. He has also defended the use of import tariffs, one of the more controversial parts of the President-elect's campaign agenda, calling them a "useful negotiating tool". On the campaign trail, Bessent told voters that Trump would usher in a "new golden age with de-regulation, low-cost energy, [and] low taxes". Trump also nominated Republican Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer for US Labor Secretary on Friday, saying she would help to "grow wages and improve working conditions [and] bring back our manufacturing jobs". The representative from Oregon, 56, won strong trade union support but narrowly lost her bid for re-election earlier this month, meaning her nomination will not affect the Republican majority in the House come January. He then made another cabinet nomination moments later, announcing Scott Turner as his pick to lead the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The NFL veteran and motivational speaker previously served in the Texas House of Representatives.
Trump names billionaire Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary pick | CNN Politics — President-elect Donald Trump named billionaire Scott Bessent as his pick to serve as the next secretary of the Department of the Treasury. “Scott has long been a strong advocate of the America First Agenda. On the eve of our Great Country’s 250th Anniversary, he will help me usher in a new Golden Age for the United States, as we fortify our position as the World’s leading Economy, Center of Innovation and Entrepreneurialism, Destination for Capital, while always, and without question, maintaining the U.S. Dollar as the Reserve Currency of the World,” Trump said in a statement announcing the pick Friday, confirming CNN’s earlier reporting. “Unlike in past Administrations, we will ensure that no Americans will be left behind in the next and Greatest Economic Boom, and Scott will lead that effort for me, and the Great People of the United States of America.” Bessent, 62, advised Trump on economic policy on the campaign trail and is the founder of hedge fund Key Square Capital Management. Before that, he was the chief investment officer at Soros Fund Management, a hedge fund started by Democratic megadonor George Soros. He gained prominence at the firm for leading efforts to bet against the British pound and Japanese yen that netted the firm billions of dollars in profits. A key Cabinet player, the US Treasury secretary advises the president on economic and fiscal matters, including spending and taxes. The role is seen as the top financial job in any administration and has become a trophy position for many well-heeled Wall Street donors. If confirmed by the Senate, Bessent’s early days on the job could be even more challenging than usual as he’ll have to face pressure to address the federal debt limit, the expiring provisions of Republicans’ 2017 tax cut package, and Trump campaign promises. Bessent would be the first out gay Treasury secretary, as well as the first LGBTQ Senate-confirmed Cabinet member in a Republican administration, according to The Associated Press. In 2021, Biden administration Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg became the first out gay Cabinet member confirmed by the Senate. Since Trump’s electoral victory, the US dollar has jumped, reaching a one-year high. The rally “is a vote of confidence in US leadership internationally and in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency,” Bessent said in a November 10 opinion piece he penned for The Wall Street Journal. Similar rallies in financial markets, he said, were signs investors “expect the Trump agenda to foster noninflationary growth that will drive private investment.” He went on to advocate for Trump to pursue policies involving deregulation and tax cuts as well as “addressing the debt burden,” which he attributed to “four years of reckless spending.” In the piece, however, Bessent made no mention of tariffs. Trump as a candidate pledged to impose 60% tariffs on goods from China, as well as 10% tariffs on goods from other countries. In recent interviews with the Financial Times and CNBC, Bessent signaled support for a more gradual approach to tariffs aimed at containing potentially inflationary blowback that could arise from imposing such levies. Trump had expected to announce his pick for Treasury a week ago, but jockeying among his top contenders for the role – Bessent and Howard Lutnick – led him to expand his pool of prospects. Earlier this week, the president-elect picked Lutnick, the CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald and the co-chair of his transition, for the role of Commerce secretary. As CNN previously reported, Trump had been nearing a decision to name Bessent earlier this month, with allies saying Trump liked his billionaire bona fides and the fact that he converted to the MAGA movement after working for Soros. Compared to Lutnick’s more aggressive campaign for the role, Bessent led a more understated quest for the position. But he called Elon Musk last weekend to try to win over the tech billionaire before he attended a United Fighting Championship with Trump. Musk, however, had come out in support of Lutnick on X, calling Bessent “a business-as-usual choice.”
Ex-NFL CB Scott Turner picked by Trump for HUD secretary - ESPN Former NFL player Scott Turner was nominated by President-elect Donald Trump for the position of secretary of housing and urban development on Friday. Turner, 52, ran the White House Opportunity and Revitalization Council during Trump's first term in office.Trump, in a statement, credited Turner with "helping to lead an Unprecedented Effort that Transformed our Country's most distressed communities." Turner is the highest-ranking Black person Trump has yet selected for his administration. Before entering politics, Turner played cornerback in the NFL for nine seasons withWashington, the Chargers and the Broncos. He was a seventh-round pick out of Illinoisin the 1995 draft.
Trump chooses Scott Turner to lead HUD and Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer as labor secretary | PBS News (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump announced Friday that Scott Turner, a former NFL player who worked in Trump’s first administration, is his nominee for secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, keeping up the pace of what has been a breakneck transition process. In less than three weeks since the election, Trump has announced decisions for almost his entire Cabinet. He also picked Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon, a rare Republican who is considered a stalwart union ally, as his labor secretary. Chavez-DeRemer, 56, narrowly lost her reelection bid earlier this month. She received strong backing from union members in her district. Chavez-DeRemer is one of a few House Republicans to endorse the “Protecting the Right to Organize” or PRO Act that would allow more workers to conduct organizing campaigns and would add penalties for companies that violate workers’ rights. The act would also weaken “right-to-work” laws that allow employees in more than half the states to avoid participating in or paying dues to unions that represent workers at their places of employment. Trump said in a statement that she would help “ensure that the Labor Department can unite Americans of all backgrounds behind our Agenda for unprecedented National Success.” In addition, Trump added to his health team on Friday evening. He chose Dr. Janette Nesheiwat, a general practitioner and Fox News contributor, to be surgeon general; Dr. Dave Weldon, a former Republican congressman from Florida, to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and Dr. Marty Makary, a Johns Hopkins surgeon, as head of the Food and Drug Administration. Trump previously said he would nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime spreader of conspiracy theories about vaccines, as health secretary. Alex Wong was named as principal deputy national security adviser, while Sebastian Gorka will serve as senior director for counterterrorism. Wong worked on issues involving Asia during Trump’s first term, and Gorka is a conservative commentator who spent less than a year in Trump’s first White House.
Former Fox News contributor Janette Nesheiwat tapped as Trump’s surgeon general –- President-elect Trump named Janette Nesheiwat, a former Fox News contributor and medical doctor in New York and New Jersey, as his nominee for surgeon general in his second administration.“I am proud to announce that Dr. Janette Nesheiwat will be the Nation’s Doctor as the United States Surgeon General. Dr. Nesheiwat is a double board-certified Medical Doctor with an unwavering commitment to saving and treating thousands of American lives,” Trump said in a press release on Friday. She is listed as a contributor on Fox News’s website, which says that she currently serves as a medical director at CityMD, a network of urgent care centers in New York and New Jersey.
Trump taps Brooke Rollins to head USDA -President-elect Trump announced that he will nominate Brooke Rollins to be the Secretary of Agriculture on Saturday, building upon a hefty list of Cabinet picks. “Brooke’s commitment to support the American Farmer, defense of American Food Self-Sufficiency, and the restoration of Agriculture-dependent American Small Towns is second to none,” Trump wrote in a release, lauding her family’s background in farming and early involvement with Future Farmers of America in addition to 4H.Rollins joined the former president’s Economic Advisory Council in 2016 and currently serves as the president and CEO of America First Policy Institute, a think-tank for the former president manned by previous staffers. In 2021, she launched a $10 million campaign against Biden’s economic agenda and spoke outin favor of Trump’s second White House bid when he fell under scrutiny in the media as GOP members criticized the party’s ticket.“For every one former Trump official or staffer that now says negative things, you have hundreds that worked for him, that worked in the White House and in the administration that would love the opportunity to go back and work for him again, and would do so in a heartbeat,” Rollins stated. Her selection comes just a day after Trump announced Scott Turner, another America First Policy Institute leader would join his administration as the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.Trump’s pick of Rollins came as somewhat of a surprise — it was expected that the president-elect would select former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Ga.) to serve as secretary of Agriculture.
The 9 GOP senators who could derail Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks - Multiple Republican senators are looming as potential obstacles to President-elect Trump’scontroversial Cabinet picks, especially his two most polarizing choices: former Rep. Matt Gaetz(R-Fla.) and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Trump has had a rocky relationship in the past with a handful of Republicans senators who won’t likely give him the same deference as loyal allies such as Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), who last week called on his GOP colleagues to “get out of the way” and approve Trump’s nominees.Trump can afford three defections within the Senate GOP conference and still get his picks confirmed.But four Republican senators would be enough to sink any of his nominees, and two moderates — Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) — have already voiced deep reservations about Gaetz, who was embroiled in a federal sex trafficking investigation, of leading the Justice Department. Here are the senators who could stymie Trump’s nominees.
DeSantis says decision on Rubio replacement will likely be made ‘by beginning of January’ -Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Monday that he will likely make a decision on who will replace President-elect Trump’s secretary of State pick Sen. Marco Rubio (R) in the upper chamber by January. “We have already received strong interest from several possible candidates, and we continue to gather names of additional candidates and conduct preliminary vetting,” DeSantis wrote in a post on the social platform X. “More extensive vetting and candidate interviews will be conducted over the next few weeks, with a selection likely made by the beginning of January,” he continued. Speculation over who will replace Rubio has reached a fever pitch, with Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, emerging as a key contender. A number of lawmakers, including Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Katie Britt (R-Ala.), as well as Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), have publicly backed Lara Trump. Other names floated to replace Rubio include DeSantis’s chief of staff James Uthmeier, Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez (R) and state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R). Supporters of Lara Trump argue that having her in the Senate would ensure that the president-elect has two Senate allies representing Florida, which has become the center of the GOP universe. However, choosing someone like Uthmeier would ensure DeSantis has one of his closest allies in the chamber. DeSantis and the president-elect have historically had a rocky relationship, becoming close allies during the governor’s 2018 first gubernatorial bid but engaging in a fierce rivalry as they faced off during the 2024 GOP presidential primary. The two patched up their rivalry earlier this year during a meeting, which Trump called “great.” DeSantis was also given a speaking role at the Republican National Convention. Some Republicans argue appointing Lara Trump could give DeSantis an opportunity to further strengthen his relationship with the president-elect.
Pennsylvania Supreme Court rebukes Democratic election officials who counted undated mail ballots - The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday rebuked Democratic-controlled elections boards that counted undated and misdated mail ballots, siding with Republicans and reiterating that such votes are invalid. Philadelphia, Montgomery and Bucks counties voted to count hundreds of such ballots in recent days despite previous rulings from the court that they cannot be included in this election. “It is critical to the rule of law that individual counties and municipalities and their elected and appointed officials, like any other parties, obey orders of this Court,” Justice David Wecht wrote, joined by Justice Sallie Updyke Mundy, in a terse concurring opinion. The ballots’ relevance has particularly come into focus as Pennsylvania’s Senate race heads to an automatic recount. Republican David McCormick leads by just fewer than 20,000 votes, and Decision Desk HQ, The Hill’s election data partner, named him as the winner last week, but incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D) has not yet conceded. In a 4-3 vote, the state’s top court granted Republicans’ request to use the court’s rare King’s Bench authority and immediately intervene to exclude misdated and undated ballots from the count. Casey’s campaign intervened to oppose the effort.The three dissenters said they would’ve allowed the lower courts to handle Republicans’ challenges in normal course.The court’s order directs that county elections boards statewide, “including the Boards of Elections in Bucks County, Montgomery County, and Philadelphia County, SHALL COMPLY with the prior rulings of this Court in which we have clarified that mail-in and absentee ballots that fail to comply with the requirements of the Pennsylvania Election Code…. SHALL NOT BE COUNTED for purposes of the election held on November 5, 2024.” Republicans had also accused Centre County of counting several ballots with invalid or missing dates, but the county disputed the notion in court filings. In a concurring opinion, three of the court’s seven justices condemned elections officials that voted to count the ballots with date issues. “I write separately to disabuse local elections officials of the notion that they have the authority to ignore Election Code provisions that they believe are unconstitutional. Only the courts under our charter may declare a statute, or provision thereof, unconstitutional,” wrote Justice Kevin Brobson, joined by Wecht and Mundy. The three dissenters said the matter hadn’t met the high burden for the court to intervene now, noting challenges mounted by Republicans and McCormick’s campaign were expeditiously proceeding in the lower courts. Mail ballots in Pennsylvania have been the subject of frequent litigation in recent years, with enforcement of the statutory requirement that voters date the outer envelope becoming a major battle. Noting that election officials timestamp mail ballots when they are received, voting rights groups and Democrats have argued the provision is meaningless and also violates the state constitution’s free and equal elections clause. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has not definitively resolved the merits of that constitutional question but had repeatedly indicated it was too close to the election to change the rules.
Harris’s ‘SNL’ appearance draws 70 FCC complaints: ‘That was a cheap shot by NBC’ - Vice President Harris’s appearance on “Saturday Night Live” (“SNL”) just days ahead of the presidential election drew 70 Federal Communications Commission (FCC) complaints from across the country. The vast majority of the objections lodged at the FCC included complaints that Harris’s “SNL” cameo violated the agency’s “equal time” rule, according to records obtained by The Hill on Wednesday as part of a Freedom of Information Act request. Harris made her debut on NBC’s long-running sketch comedy show in early November, just three days before Election Day. The then-Democratic presidential nominee appeared alongside Maya Rudolph, who has long impersonated Harris on the late-night program. “I’m just here to remind you, you got this, because you can do something your opponent can’t do — you can open doors,” Harris told Rudolph, in a knock at her opponent in the White House race, former President Trump. Shortly after the “SNL” cold open featuring Harris, Brendan Carr, a senior Republican FCC commissioner appointed by Trump, claimed that the appearance was a “clear and blatant effort to evade the FCC’s Equal Time rule.” Earlier this week and following his election victory, Trump tapped Carr to chair the FCC. The “equal time” rules from the FCC allow rival candidates to request equal air time. Viewers who filed complaints with the FCC widely referenced the rule, while condemning NBC for the move. “I think it’s unconscionable for SNL to have only invited a single candidate onto their show this past Saturday,” a viewer from Austin, Texas, wrote. “It shows an extreme political bias and does not offer any other candidate the same opportunity to deliver their message.” “What a crock of crap that NBC pulled on the American people. That was a cheap shot by NBC and SNL to try and influence the presidential race,” another viewer from Spring Creek, Nev., wrote, adding that the network “should be punished for this stunt.”
Trump hush money case prosecutors support sentencing delay but oppose case dismissal - The Manhattan District Attorney's Office told a judge Tuesday that it supported pausing the planned sentencing of President-elect Donald Trump in his criminal hush money case to give Trump's lawyers time to argue that the case should be dismissed altogether. The DA's office told Judge Juan Merchan they would continue opposing the dismissal bid, which is based on the claim that the case should be tossed out as a result of Trump's election as president.Prosecutors asked Merchan to set a motion schedule on the defense's dismissal request.Merchan has yet to rule on the filing by prosecutors.Trump's spokesman Steven Cheung, in a statement Tuesday, said, "This is a total and definitive victory for President Trump and the American People who elected him in a landslide." "The Manhattan DA has conceded that this Witch Hunt cannot continue. The lawless case is now stayed, and President Trump's legal team is moving to get it dismissed once and for all," Cheung said.The New York case is one of four criminal prosecutions against Trump whose fate is up in the air — or all but doomed — because of the Republican's electoral win two weeks ago against Vice President Kamala HarrisTrump was convicted in May in Manhattan Supreme Court of 34 felony charges of falsifying business records.Those records related to a $130,000 payment his then-personal lawyer Michael Cohen made shortly before the 2016 election to porn star Stormy Daniels to buy her silence about a purported one-time sexual tryst with Trump a decade earlier.Merchan had been expected to rule on a dismissal request by Trump's lawyers on Nov. 12 at the earliest. The Manhattan District Attorney's Office had opposed that request.But on the heels of Trump's election win, the DA's office told Merchan they wanted him to delay his ruling, to give them time to determine how that victory affected the case.Merchan gave them one week to do so.
Georgia appeals court cancels arguments in Trump's bid to disqualify Fani Willis --A Georgia appeals court canceled next month’s oral arguments in President-elect Trump’s bid to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis (D) from criminally prosecuting him. Monday’s one-sentence order from the Georgia Court of Appeals canceling the Dec. 5 argument “until further order of this Court” contained no explanation but comes less than two weeks after Trump’s White House victory. Earlier this year, Trump began attempting to derail his criminal prosecution for attempting to overturn his election loss in Georgia in 2020 over Willis’s relationship with a top prosecutor she hired to oversee the case, Nathan Wade.After a whirlwind hearing earlier this year, the trial judge ruled the case could move forward and that Willis could continue to oversee the prosecution so long as Wade resigned, which he did. The appeals court was slated to hear arguments from Trump and eight of his co-defendants that Willis cannot oversee the prosecution. Willis indicted the former president and more than a dozen of his allies on racketeering and other charges for allegedly entering a months-long, unlawful conspiracy to overturn Trump’s 2020 loss in Georgia, one of four criminal cases brought against the former president. Trump’s legal team believes all his criminal prosecutions must be dismantled now that he is president-elect, but his attorneys hadn’t yet formally mounted such an effort in the Georgia case. The appeals court could still issue its ruling without hearing arguments, but before the election, it agreed to hold them at Trump’s request. The Hill has reached out to Willis’s office and Trump’s attorney for comment. Monday’s cancellation is the last of Trump’s four criminal cases to be halted following his White House victory. Courts have put on hold special counsel Jack Smith’s federal election interference case in the nation’s capital and his appeal in the documents case in Florida. Smith is assessing how to wind down the prosecutions before Trump’s inauguration and is due to provide an update by Dec. 2.In New York, Trump’s judge overseeing his hush money criminal case has temporarily frozen ituntil Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D) proposes next steps by Tuesday. Legal observers largely expect next week’s sentencing to be cancelled
MSNBC, CNBC On The Chopping Block As Comcast Greenlights $7 Billion Spinoff -Comcast on Wednesday announced that it will move forward with plans to spin off its NBCUniversal cable TV networks - including MSNBC, CNBC, USA, Oxygen, E!, Syfy and the Golf Channel. (of course a season 2 Firefly reboot might have saved the whole thing... hint to the new buyer). All together, the assets generated around $7 billion in revenue in the 12 months ended Sept. 30, the WSJ reports. The company will keep Bravo - known for the "Real Housewives," as well as the Peacock streaming service and NBC broadcast network. Executives are betting that their remaining assets - including in broadcast TV, sports, movies and theme parks, will be better positioned for growth. Comcast will announce Wednesday that it is moving forward with a plan to spin off its NBCUniversal cable TV networks, including MSNBC, CNBC, USA, Oxygen, E!, Syfy and Golf Channel. Bravo will stay in the mother ship Of course, the decision also comes as a major source of ad revenue - pharmaceutical companies, are about to get the monkey hammer of justice from RFK Jr. And guess who's most exposed?
Trump Jr., Musk joke about buying MSNBC --Donald Trump Jr. and tech billionaire Elon Musk joked on Friday about purchasing MSNBC. It started with Trump Jr., President-elect Trump’s oldest son, sharing a meme about MSNBC being up for sale. Trump Jr. quote-tweeted the meme Friday on X and said “Hey @elonmusk I have the funniest idea ever!!!” “How much does it cost,” Musk replied. Musk later responded to the viral interaction, saying the sale would be “the most entertaining outcome,” while suggesting it would be “ironic.”The exchange occurred just two days after Comcast, one of the largest media conglomerates in the nation, said it planned to spin off NBCUniversal assets, including USA Network, CNBC, MSNBC, Oxygen, E!, SYFY and Golf Channel, to “create a new publicly traded company.”Comcast did not mention any indication it would be open to selling MSNBC. Musk’s exchange with Trump Jr. is similar to one he had with a Twitter user in 2017 after he was encouraged to purchase the social media platform. “How much is it” Musk wrote in December of 2017. In 2022, he bought the social media platform, which was later renamed to X, for $44 billion.
DoJ Reportedly Pushing For Google To Divest Chrome To Dismantle Search Monopoly - The US Department of Justice is reportedly planning to ask a federal judge to force Google's parent company, Alphabet, to sell off its Chrome internet browser, potentially marking one of the biggest tech industry crackdowns in the US in decades. On August 5, US District Judge Amit Mehta, Washington, DC, ruled that Google violated antitrust law by spending billions of dollars to create an illegal monopoly as the world's default search engine on smartphones, computers, and tablets. The ruling paved the way for antitrust enforcers to submit a 32-page document about potential remedies for the judge to consider. Now, Bloomberg reports, citing sources, that top DoJ antitrust officials plan to ask Juge Mehta to consider one of Google's top remedies: selling off its Chrome browser unit. Here's more from the report:Antitrust officials, along with states that have joined the case, also plan to recommend Wednesday that federal judge Amit Mehta impose data licensing requirements, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing a confidential matter.If Mehta accepts the proposals, they have the potential to reshape the online search market and the burgeoning AI industry....The government has the option to decide whether a Chrome sale is necessary at a later date if some of the other aspects of the remedy create a more competitive market, the people added. Government attorneys met with dozens of companies over the past three months as they prepared the recommendation. States are still considering adding some proposals and some details could change, the people said.Lee-Anne Mulholland, Google's vice president of regulatory affairs, said the DoJ "continues to push a radical agenda that goes far beyond the legal issues in this case.""The government putting its thumb on the scale in these ways would harm consumers, developers and American technological leadership at precisely the moment it is most needed," Mulholland said. Selling off Chrome would severely impact Google's ad unit, considering the browser maintains about 61% of the US market share, according to web traffic analytics service StatCounter. Google's ad revenue in 2023 was $237.86 billion. Judge Mehta has planned a two-week April hearing on the changes Google must make to remedy the illegal behavior. The final ruling could come as early as August 2025. Google does plan to file an appeal.
DOJ takes aim at Chrome - The Department of Justice (DOJ) is asking a federal judge to order Google to sell off its Chrome browser after the court found the tech giant maintained an illegal monopoly over online search. In a filing late Wednesday night, the DOJ argued Google’s ownership and control of Chrome, as well as Android, stand in the way of its efforts to open up the market and prevent future monopolization. “The playing field is not level because of Google’s conduct, and Google’s quality reflects the ill-gotten gains of an advantage illegally acquired,” the agency wrote. “The remedy must close this gap and deprive Google of these advantages.” The DOJ’s proposal would require Google to divest from Chrome and prohibit the search giant from owning another browser for five years. It would also block the company from owning or investing in potential rivals over the same period. As for Android — which the agency contended offers Google “myriad obvious and not-so-obvious ways to favor its own search products” — the DOJ said it would ask the company to divest from its mobile operating system only if the other remedies are not effective at reining in its monopoly or Google attempts to circumvent them. The remedies also take aim at the exclusive agreements that Google has entered into with partners, like Apple, to make its search engine the default on their devices. The DOJ’s proposal would prohibit such agreements, which were at the heart of the case. Google would also be barred from preferencing its search enginethrough its other products, such as Android, YouTube or its artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot Gemini. Kent Walker, Google’s chief legal officer and president of global affairs, described the DOJ’s recommended remedies as a “staggering proposal.” “DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America’s global technology leadership,” Walker wrote in a blog post.“DOJ’s wildly overbroad proposal goes miles beyond the Court’s decision. It would break a range of Google products — even beyond Search — that people love and find helpful in their everyday lives,” he continued.
DOJ asks judge to order Google to sell Chrome -The Department of Justice (DOJ) is asking a federal judge to order Google to sell off its Chrome browser after the court found the tech giant maintained an illegal monopoly over online search. In a filing late Wednesday night, the DOJ argued Google’s ownership and control of Chrome, as well as Android, stand in the way of its efforts to open up the market and prevent future monopolization. “The playing field is not level because of Google’s conduct, and Google’s quality reflects the ill-gotten gains of an advantage illegally acquired,” the agency wrote. “The remedy must close this gap and deprive Google of these advantages.” The DOJ’s proposal would require Google to divest from Chrome and prohibit the search giant from owning another browser for five years. It would also block the company from owning or investing in other potential rivals over the same period. As for Android — which the agency contended offers Google “myriad obvious and not-so-obvious ways to favor its own search products” — the DOJ said it would ask the company to divest from its mobile operating system only if the other remedies are not effective at reining in its monopoly or Google attempts to circumvent them. The remedies also take aim at the exclusive agreements that Google has made with partners, like Apple, to make its search engine the default on their devices. The DOJ’s proposal would prohibit such agreements, which were at the heart of the case. Google would also be barred from preferencing its search engine through its other products, such as Android, YouTube or its artificial intelligence (AI) chatbot Gemini. Kent Walker, Google’s chief legal officer and president of global affairs, described the DOJ’s recommended remedies as a “staggering proposal.” “DOJ had a chance to propose remedies related to the issue in this case: search distribution agreements with Apple, Mozilla, smartphone [original equipment manufacturers], and wireless carriers,” Walker wrote in a blog post. “Instead, DOJ chose to push a radical interventionist agenda that would harm Americans and America’s global technology leadership,” he added. “DOJ’s wildly overbroad proposal goes miles beyond the Court’s decision. It would break a range of Google products — even beyond Search — that people love and find helpful in their everyday lives.” After more than two months of trial last fall, U.S. District Judge Amit Mehta ruled in August that Google had illegally maintained a monopoly over online search — one of the biggest antitrust decisions in decades. Although Google plans to contest the ruling, the case must first go through the remedies phase before it can be appealed. Mehta is expected to issue a final ruling on remedies by next August. However, it is unclear how the incoming Trump administration may prompt a shift in the DOJ’s approach to the case. The president-elect appeared hesitant about the possibility of a break-up in October, warning that it could benefit China. “It’s a very dangerous thing because we want to have great companies,” Trump said at a Bloomberg event. “We don’t want China to have these companies. Right now, China is afraid of Google.”
CFPB finalizes rule to supervise some Big Tech firms — The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has finalized its rule to supervise the largest nonbank companies that offer digital funds transfers and payment wallets. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has significantly raised the transaction threshold for its larger participant rule — which defines which firms will be affected — from 5 million annual payments to 50 million.
Trump’s election sparks speculative frenzy on Wall Street -- One of the effects of Trump’s winning of the US presidency has been a surge of speculation on Wall Street, with stock market indexes reaching record highs in the days following November 5. The Dow reached 44,000 for the first time and the more broad-based S&P 500 rose to 6000. While the initial frenzy has subsided somewhat as investors take into account higher inflation numbers than expected and consider that interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not come as quickly as they have anticipated, the trend is still upwards. As the headline on a recent Wall Street Journal article put it: “Investors are betting on a market melt-up.” It said they had “stampeded into funds tracking US stocks” with such funds drawing in nearly $56 billion in the week to November 13, the second-largest weekly inflow according to records going back to 2008. Wall Street has been salivating over the prospect that Trump will bring in further tax cuts, but such direct assistance from the government is not the only factor. Another major impetus is the belief that regulations on the operations of finance capital—banks and hedge funds—will be further relaxed so as to become almost non-existent. A graphic example of financial power occurred in September when the banks secured a total capitulation by the Federal Reserve on its plans to introduce tighter regulations in the wake of the collapse of three significant banks in March 2023. The regulations had been drawn up by a committee of the Bank for International Settlements in Basle, Switzerland and were known as the Basle III Endgame. They were aimed at locking in around $80 billion as reserves to cover possible losses. The banks were having none of it and organised a massive lobbying campaign hiring a total of 486 federal lobbyists. They forced a total backdown with the Fed official in charge, Michael Barr, declaring he had learned “the lesson of humility.” Now the Wall Street financial oligarchy considers that such operations will not be necessary because it has in power a government which will directly carry out its dictates. One of its leading representatives, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, will play a key role in determining policy. Amid this speculative frenzy, which has also seen the crypto currency Bitcoin, a financial asset with no inherent value, reach record highs, there are signs that the financial house of cards is heading for another disaster. The Financial Times reported earlier this week that the trading accounts of US banks—the money they use to bet on the markets—had grown to more than $1 trillion in the third quarter of this year. This is the highest level since 2008, just before the global financial crisis which was sparked by their speculative operations. The FT noted that the growth of trading funds had left the banks, “particularly the largest ones, more exposed to market moves than at any time since the financial crisis as they hold ever-greater inventories of price-sensitive securities.”
Major bitcoin hacker Lichtenstein gets five years in prison for crypto laundering scheme -A man whose 2016 hack of Bitfinex drained nearly 120,000bitcoin from that cryptocurrency exchange was sentenced Thursday to five years in prison for a money laundering scheme he and his wife employed to hide the swiped crypto.The value of that bitcoin stolen by Ilya Lichtenstein was just $70 million when he executed the cyberattack on Bitfinex and initiated more than 2,000 unauthorized transactions to siphon off the cryptocurrency.That crypto is currently worth $10.5 billion due to bitcoin's rise in price since 2016."I want to take full responsibility for my actions and make amends any way I can," Lichtenstein reportedly told Judge Colleen Kollar-Kotelly in U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., before she sentenced him to the prison term and three years of supervised release that prosecutors had requested.Lichtenstein, 35, and his wife, Heather Rhiannon Morgan, pleaded guilty to money laundering conspiracy in August 2023, 18 months after their arrest in New York City, where they lived.Lichtenstein first publicly admitted that he had been the hacker of Bitfinex at that plea hearing. He had faced a maximum possible sentence of 20 years in prison before his sentencing on Thursday. "The defendant perpetrated what was at the time one of the largest thefts from a virtual currency exchange," prosecutors wrote in a sentencing memorandum. "He became one of the greatest money launderers that the government has encountered in the cryptocurrency space." "Over half a decade, the defendant engaged in what IRS agents described as the most complicated money laundering techniques they had seen to date," prosecutors wrote.
Archegos’s Bill Hwang sentenced to 18 years in prison for massive US fraud -- Former billionaire investor Sung Kook “Bill” Hwang has been sentenced to 18 years in prison over the collapse of Archegos Capital Management, which cost Wall Street banks more than $10bn.Hwang was sentenced on Wednesday by United States District Judge Alvin Hellerstein in Manhattan, where a jury convicted Hwang in July on 10 criminal charges including wire fraud, securities fraud and market manipulation.“The amount of losses that were caused by your conduct are larger than any other losses I have dealt with,” Hellerstein said before announcing the sentence.Archegos’s March 2021 implosion took less than a week, stunning Wall Street and Hwang’s lenders.The US Attorney’s office in Manhattan sought a 21-year prison term for Hwang – unusually long for a white-collar case – and for him to forfeit $12.35bn and make restitution to victims.“It stands among a rare class of cases that truly could be described as a national calamity,” prosecutor Andrew Thomas said at the sentencing hearing before Hellerstein.Hellerstein did not reach a decision on Wednesday on whether Hwang must forfeit money or pay restitution. The sentencing hearing is expected to resume on Thursday.Before sentencing Hwang, Hellerstein asked the defendant’s lawyer, Dani James, how she thought Hwang compared to Sam Bankman-Fried, who was sentenced in March to 25 years in prison for stealing $8bn from users of the now-bankrupt FTX exchange.“Mr Bankman-Fried was literally stealing from his customers,” James said. “I don’t think that’s what’s happened here.”Hwang had asked for no prison, forfeiture or restitution, and to remain free on bail while he appealed his conviction. James said his low risk of committing more crimes meant a lengthy prison term served no purpose.“The notion that he would commit a crime in the future, it’s just not so,” James said.
Indian Billionaire Gautam Adani Indicted For 'Massive Fraud' And 'Multi-Billion Dollar' Bribery Scheme - Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has been indicted in New York for 'massive fraud' and a 'multi-billion dollar' bribery scheme, according to multiple reports Wednesday afternoon. According to NBC, Gautam Adani and others are accused of paying over $250 million in bribes to Indian officials to secure solar energy contracts expected to yield $2 billion in profits over 20 years. Prosecutors allege Adani personally met with officials as part of the scheme.Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani, and Vneet Jaain, both Adani Green Energy executives, also face wire and securities fraud charges for misleading U.S. investors and lenders to obtain funding, the U.S. Attorney's Office in Brooklyn stated.U.S. Attorney Breon Peace commented: "The defendants orchestrated an elaborate scheme to bribe Indian government officials to secure contracts worth billions of dollars and Gautam S. Adani, Sagar R. Adani and Vneet S. Jaain lied about the bribery scheme as they sought to raise capital from U.S. and international investors."A DOJ press release reads: “These offenses were allegedly committed by senior executives and directors to obtain and finance massive state energy supply contracts through corruption and fraud at the expense of U.S. investors. The Criminal Division will continue to aggressively prosecute corrupt, deceptive, and obstructive conduct that violates U.S. law, no matter where in the world it occurs.” “Gautam S. Adani and seven other business executives allegedly bribed the Indian government to finance lucrative contracts designed to benefit their businesses. Adani and other defendants also defrauded investors by raising capital on the basis of false statements about bribery and corruption, while still other defendants allegedly attempted to conceal the bribery conspiracy by obstructing the government’s investigation,” stated FBI Assistant Director in Charge Dennehy. “The FBI maintains its steadfast mission to expose all corrupt agreements, especially with international governments, and protect investors from related harm.” The indictment also charges former Azure Power executives Ranjit Gupta and Rupash Agarwal, along with three ex-employees of Canadian investor Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec, with conspiring to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act as part of Adani's bribery scheme.
FTX co-founder Gary Wang avoids prison time for role in crypto fraud - Gary Wang, co-founder and ex-technology chief of FTX, was sentenced Wednesday to time served and three years of supervised release on each of the four counts he pled guilty to, becoming the fifth and final ex-employee of the collapsed crypto exchange to be punished. Wang was also ordered to forfeit $11 billion, the same as the other co-defendants. Wang, who took the stand in the trial against his former boss Sam Bankman-Fried, faced a maximum sentence of 50 years for the four criminal counts he pleaded guilty to, including conspiracy to commit wire fraud, wire fraud, conspiracy to commit commodities fraud and conspiracy to commit securities fraud. After FTX's former engineering chief Nishad Singh successfully avoided prison time when he was sentenced by Judge Lewis Kaplan last month, Wang was seeking the same sentence citing his nearly immediate cooperation with the government. When given the opportunity to address the court, Wang said he was deeply sorry to all the customers and investors in FTX. "I took the easy path, the cowardly path, instead of doing the right thing," Wang said in a short address to the court, as he clutched a single printed piece of paper that he never referenced from the podium. "I will spend the rest of my life trying to make amends," he added. Wang's parents, as well as his wife, who is expecting their first child, were in court to support him. Attorneys for Wang say he didn't have full visibility on the crimes, unlike the other cooperating witnesses, and didn't know that FTX's sister hedge fund Alameda Research was taking customer money until after the scheme was underway. The government was also seeking leniency for Wang. Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos described Wang as the easiest cooperating witness he had ever worked with, and he credited Wang for essentially deciphering half of the case for the Government by meticulously unpacking the complicated code used by FTX that allowed for the customer money to be taken off the exchange. In the sentencing submission, prosecutors added that since testifying against the former FTX CEO, Wang has "put his extraordinary computer programing skills to use in detecting potential fraud in the stock and cryptocurrency markets," and has built an interface that the government has started using for detecting potential fraud by publicly traded companies. In addition, "Wang has also been working on a tool for detection of potential illegal activity in cryptocurrency markets, which in the event Wang is sentenced to a period of time served, the Government understands he will complete as part of his ongoing cooperation." Roos also noted that Wang was the first FTX employee to walk through the government's door but the last to be sentenced, as the FTX criminal proceedings come to a close.
Meta removes 2 million accounts related to 'pig-butchering' scams -Some major tech companies including Meta are taking steps to combat “pig butchering” scams, which trick Americans out of billions of dollars each year through fake online friendships and romances. Pig butchering scams are elaborate and often take months to unfold. Scammers will patiently strike up an online friendship or romantic relationship with a victim, eventually guiding them to invest in elaborate fake cryptocurrency ventures. Victims become convinced they’ve found a way to get rich and sometimes give away their entire savings before realizing it was all a scam.Meta on Thursday announced it has taken its first major steps into addressing the scams, including dedicating staff to identify where scammers operate, sharing that information with international law enforcement, and taking down more than 2 million accounts this year.Pig butchering scammers use a wide range of apps, including meeting victims on dating apps and guiding them to chat on Telegram, which is relatively unmoderated and reluctant to work with international law enforcement. But some scammers meet targets on Facebook and Instagram or chat with them on WhatsApp.Telegram did not respond to a request for comment. Since its owner’s arrest in Francein August, it has changed its terms of service to say that it will sometimes cooperate with law enforcement.Scam reports have risen steadily in recent years. In September, the FBI announced that victims had filed reports of losing a record amount — nearly $4 billion — in crypto investment scams, a category that primarily refers to pig butchering. Given that many victims don’t report to the FBI, the actual losses are likely much higher. Meta will begin automatically flagging potential scam messages when strangers message people over Facebook Messenger or Instagram DMs, or add them to a WhatsApp group, it said.
Now BlueSky hit with crypto scams as it crosses 20 million users --As many more users are flocking to BlueSky from social media platforms like X/Twitter, so are threat actors.BleepingComputer has spotted cryptocurrency scams popping up on BlueSky just as the decentralized microblogging service surpassed 20 million users this week.Over the past few years, X/Twitter has become the hotbed of scammers from those targeting banking customers to ones impersonating high-profile accounts to push posts promoting fake crypto giveaways, websites that utilize wallet drainers, and Discord channels promoting pump-and-dumps. As BlueSky nears a 21 million strong userbase, BleepingComputer has observed threat actors are starting to get their foot in too, and push their agenda.A BlueSky post from last week featured an AI-generated image of Mark Zuckerberg and promoted crypto assets like "MetaChain" and "MetaCoin."As evident from the messaging and graphics, the post misleads viewers into associating the advertised products with tech giant Meta and its concept "Metaverse". The MetaChain[.]cash website mentioned in the post also appears to carefully impersonate Meta branding, typeface, and messaging:Another post titled "You've won FREE Satoshi Bitcoin of $900k" was seen leading users to a GitHub Pages website, cryptos-satoshi.github[.]io which is no longer accessible.Reacting to the "block chain" scam, BlueSky user @krankenpflegel.de remarked "Och nö. Jetzt auch hier," meaning "Oh no. Now here too."
Bitcoin Surpasses $99,000 As Cryptocurrency Eyes Next Milestone - Bitcoin prices rose above $99,000 on Thursday, November 21, as the digital currency came ever closer to breaking through the $100,000 level.The world’s most popular cryptocurrency reached nearly $99,400, according to Coinbase data from TradingView.The digital asset, which has generated substantial visibility at many points, has managed to draw even more eyeballs recently as highly favorable market conditions push it to a string of fresh, all-time highs.“The sentiment for Bitcoin is extremely bullish right now: From traders, media, retail investors an big institutions: Everybody wants to be part of the actual bull run which might be still in the beginning in my view,” Marc P. Bernegger, cofounder of crypto fund of funds AltAlpha Digital, said via emailed comments.Now, the digital asset is fluctuating very close to the key, psychological level of $100,000, and surpassing this price point could have major implications for markets and trading.“$100,000 will be an important milestone for bitcoin,” said Patrick Liou, principal of institutional sales for Gemini. “Based on previous experiences, realized volatility to the upside tends to catch investor attention, which is still relatively low when examining historical Google search trends for ‘bitcoin.’ This could potentially fuel a further run for bitcoin above the $100,000 mark in the lead up to the inauguration and in Q1 2025,” he stated via emailed comments.
PayPal expands stablecoin; Barclays pivots from merchant acquiring --PayPal, which has been trying to build scale for its stablecoin for more than a year, this week enabled remittance partners to use PYUSD to settle international transactions in emerging markets that are made via the Xoom P2P payments app. The payment company is using its Xoom transfer app to bring PYUSD to a broader market; while Barclays is reportedly in talks with Brookfield Asset Management to sell a portion of its payments business. That and more in our global payments news roundup.
Consumer watchdog to oversee digital wallets, payment apps -- Large companies that offer digital wallets and payment apps will now be overseen by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB). The CFPB finalized a rule Thursday to bring companies handling more than 50 million transactions a year under its supervision. This will include Apple, Google, Amazon, PayPal, Block, Venmo and Zelle, according to CNBC. “Digital payments have gone from novelty to necessity and our oversight must reflect this reality,” CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement. “The rule will help to protect consumer privacy, guard against fraud, and prevent illegal account closures.” The agency already had enforcement authority over these large digital payment platforms but said the new rule gives it the ability to “conduct proactive examinations to ensure companies are complying with the law.” The CFPB noted that the platforms are particularly popular with middle- and lower-income consumers, who are using them at rates that “rival or exceed the use of cash.” The most widely used apps process more than 13 billion transactions a year combined, according to the agency. “Digital payment apps have become a cornerstone of daily commerce, rivaling traditional payment methods like credit cards and debit cards for both online and in-store purchases,” the CFPB wrote in a press release. “What began as a convenient alternative to cash has evolved into a critical financial tool, processing over a trillion dollars in payments between consumers and their friends, families, and businesses,” it added.
Custodia battens down hatches as it awaits Trump crypto pivot - Custodia Bank is scaling back its business as it awaits what figures to be a more crypto-positive stance by the incoming Trump administration. The embattled crypto bank announced that it will reduce operations and move to preserve capital after losing its banking partner earlier this month.
FedNow saw $17.5 billion of transactions last quarter --The Federal Reserve released the volume of activity on its instant payments network since its launch last summer, showing a surge in usage between July and August.
BankThink The US is badly behind the curve on access to the payments system - In a recent speech at the Chicago Payments Symposium, Treasury Under Secretary Nellie Liang laid out her vision for payments modernization in the United States. Toward the end of her remarks, she voiced support for a monumental shift that could potentially affect the future ofU.S. payments — including international payments. The policy change? Allowing payments companies to directly access the Federal Reserve payments rails. The U.S. is alone among G7 nations in not allowing nonbanks direct access to vital central bank payments rails. It's past time for regulations to catch up with clear consumer preferences.
JPMorgan Chase, Mastercard sell crypto-style B2B payment tech == The myriad initiatives to speed processing for corporate payments mostly have at least one major problem — they don't work well together across borders, if at all. The bank and payment company are using the technology that underpins digital assets to improve interoperability for international transactions, a major point of friction in trade finance.
OCC's Hsu: Banks and regulators should 'co-learn' about using AI — Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu warned against regulators giving banks or other financial firms too much leeway in exploring applications for artificial intelligence, saying instead that regulators and firms should "co-learn" about this emerging technology together. Hsu said that while artificial intelligence is a potentially transformative technology, regulators should be wary of waiving liability for its use in banking.
'Abuse boxes' and other methods banks can use to counteract phishing -- On Tuesday, a consortium of banks published a framework for reducing phishing risks that consumers face. The framework helped three large banks reduce scam reports by an average of 50%, according to the group. The five-part framework suggests both technical and governance solutions to protect consumers from losing money to scammers and fraudsters.
After Okla. bank failure, Chopra calls for expanded deposit insurance -- Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra said it is "fundamentally unfair" that uninsured depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank got a reprieve from regulators while those at First National Bank of Lindsay did not.
Kansas banks runs afoul of money laundering standards again - The Federal Reserve came down on a Kansas community bank for the second time in 14 months for deficient money laundering controls. Small Business Bank in Lennox, Kansas received another cease-and-desist order from the Federal Reserve for failing to comply with anti-money laundering and Bank Secrecy Act requirements for the second time in 14 months.
Ex-CEO of failed Kansas bank banned from banking - A one-time executive found guilty of embezzling millions from his since-failed community bankhas been banned from banking. The Federal Reserve issued an enforcement action against the former head of Heartland Tri-State Bank, who embezzled millions of dollars after falling victim to a crypto scam.
Troubled Texas bank gets another wrist-slap from regulators - A Texas banking group is the subject of regulatory scrutiny for the second time in as many months and the third time this year. Industry Bancshares has been bogged down for years with unrealized losses. The Federal Reserve issued a cease-and-desist order against the firm, following similar actions by other agencies.
'Fundamental breakdown': How USAA landed in regulators' hot seat - Amid steady customer growth, USAA's banking arm failed to make the investments necessary to satisfy either its regulators or some decades-long customers. Changes in the executive suite haven't fixed the problems. Few companies can match USAA's stellar reputation, gained over a century of offering financial products to military members. But behind the scenes, the San Antonio bank and insurer is navigating a minefield of its own making. USAA’s banking arm has grown its customer base for years, all while failing to make the investments needed to keep both its regulators and some decades-long customers happy, according to a joint investigation by American Banker and the San Antonio Current. A series of regulatory penalties hasn’t sparked enough internal change. Neither has the reshuffling of key leaders, the latest move being the upcoming retirement of CEO Wayne Peacock. Another problem: nonexistent profits at USAA’s bank, which has turned to layoffs to cut costs. The list of regulatory problems in the banking division is varied. Regulators have demanded overhauls of the bank’s technology and information security protections, plus its efforts to prevent money laundering. They’ve punished the bank for charging military members more interest than federal law allows. And they’ve failed USAA twice in a row on an exam that measures how well banks serve communities. “Independently, these various violations could be understood, but collectively, they show a pattern that raises concerns,” said Mark Williams, a Boston University finance professor and a former bank supervisor at the Federal Reserve. “There’s something more fundamental.” This article is based on interviews with more than a dozen lawyers, analysts and former regulators; interviews with nine USAA customers; interviews with three former compliance employees at the company; and a review of data USAA has filed with its regulators. The nine customers — or members, as USAA calls them — said the company they long trusted seems to have lost its way, as personalized customer service has shifted to unreliable automated systems. “It just doesn’t feel special anymore. It just feels like another insurance company,” said Jeffrey Withee, a former Marine lieutenant colonel who has been a USAA member for almost 30 years. Another USAA member, who has been with the enterprise since the 1960s, expressed disappointment over learning of the bank’s regulatory penalties in the newspaper, rather than from the company itself. The person, who declined to be named due to identity-theft concerns, said bank security issues are important and warrant transparency with members. “I’d like to know what’s going on, because I haven’t heard anything specific,” the customer said. “I want them to tell me what happened and what they’re doing to fix it.” Michael Moran, USAA’s interim bank president, said in an interview that the bank is continuing to “strengthen our risk and compliance capabilities.” The steps include upgrading its technologies, improving internal processes, increasing training and hiring an experienced pool of new employees. “While I realize there’s more work to do on this front, we have made significant progress,” Moran said, pointing to greatly improved risk management in “several key areas that previously we had identified as needing attention.”
Fed's Bowman: Chevron reversal will 'positively' change rules - The Federal Reserve Board's leading internal voice of dissent believes a recent Supreme Court ruling could help fix regulatory rulemaking practices at the Fed and elsewhere. The Federal Reserve governor said the Supreme Court ruling could bring needed transparency and efficiency to regulatory policymaking.
Trump's FDIC has work cut out for it in repairing culture -After months of complaining about the pace and earnestness of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s efforts to turn around a pervasive culture of sexual harassment and discrimination at the agency, Republicans will soon take the reins of the agency — and custody of the problem. The next Republican-led FDIC board will inherit a legacy of sexual misconduct and low morale brought to light last year. Despite the breadth of that challenge, industry watchers believe the agency's new leadership can deliver meaningful change.
BankThink The CFPB's 'open banking' rule is a solution in search of a problem --To understand all that is wrong with the CFPB's new consumer financial data sharing rule, which it labels an "open banking" rule, it's important to understand the current state of affairs.Banks solved the issue of consumer data sharing years ago. Why is the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau stepping in now, with a rule that could make sharing data less safe and secure?
Regulators to pause major proposals until Trump takes office - The book has all but closed on the Biden administration's bank regulatory endeavors as top agencies officials agreed to hold off on putting forth or advancing any additional reforms this year. In a congressional hearing, top officials from the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency said no new rules will be adopted or proposed this year.
How CFPB is cracking down on banks before Trump takes office - In the wake of President-elect Donald Trump's Nov. 5 win, change has become the only certainty on the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's path forward. Bankers hope the agency will be more favorable to the industry under the next administration but remain wary of their chances for success. Enforcement actions from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau still fresh in the mind of financial leaders have renewed hopes that a second Trump administration will favorably alter the agency's future.
SEC charges ex-Fed examiner with insider trading - The Securities and Exchange Commission filed a lawsuit against a former Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond supervisor this month for trading bank stocks on inside information. The Securities and Exchange Commission accused a former supervisor with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond of trading New York Community Bank and Capital One stock based on material nonpublic information.
Former Fed supervisor pleads guilty to insider trading - A former Federal Reserve supervisor is facing up to 25 years of jail time after pleading guilty to insider trading and lying to hide it. Robert Thompson was charged with using nonpublic information about New York Community Bank and Capital One to execute stock trades. His guilty plea could come with up to 25 years behind bars.
BankThink Private credit markets are a $1.7 trillion ticking time bomb -One wonders if the nonbank financial system, with its limited regulation, could be considered a modern-day "wildcat" system ripe for instability, writes former Comptroller of the Currency Eugene Ludwig.In the 19th century, before the establishment of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency by Abraham Lincoln, America had a loose, state-run banking system. This system, which essentially functioned as the entire financial system at the time, was prone to instability. The era, often referred to today as the "wildcat" banking era, ultimately came a cropper, leading to losses for depositors and hardship for countless Americans. Lincoln and his first secretary of the Treasury, Salmon Chase — one of Lincoln's most powerful and influential cabinet members, particularly on this issue — recognized the need for a regulated banking system. Huge portfolios of outstanding private credit, issued by lenders completely free of banklike supervision and safety and soundness requirements, are almost certainly of lower quality than banks' loan portfolios. If they implode, the damage could be extensive.
CFPB's Chopra: AI can be the key to fairer credit scoring — Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra said the shortcomings of the FICO credit-scoring model are becoming unacceptable and urged regulators and lenders to develop a new model based on artificial intelligence to replace it. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Director Rohit Chopra said the FICO credit-scoring model has drawbacks in price, predictiveness and market competition, and stakeholders should develop a more open-sourced model that uses artificial intelligence.
Visa & Mastercard execs grilled by senators on high swipe fees -- The Senate Judiciary Committee convened on Tuesday for a hearing on the alleged Visa -Mastercard "duopoly," which committee members from both sides of the aisle say has left retailers and other small businesses with no ability to negotiate interchange fees on credit card transactions. "This is an odd grouping. The most conservative and the most liberal members happen to agree that we have to do something about this situation," committee chair and Democratic Illinois Sen. Dick Durbin said. Interchange fees, also known as swipe fees, are paid from a merchant's bank account to the cardholder's bank, whenever a customer uses a credit card in a retail purchase. Visa and Mastercard have a combined market cap of more than $1 trillion, and control 80% of the market. "In 2023 alone, Visa and Mastercard charged merchants more than $100 billion in credit card fees, mostly in the form of interchange fees," Durbin told the committee. Durbin, along with Republican Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, have co-sponsored the bipartisan Credit Card Competition Act, which takes aim at Visa and Mastercard's market dominance by requiring banks with more than $100 billion in assets to offer at least one other payment network on their cards, besides Visa and Mastercard. "This way, small businesses would finally have a real choice: they can route credit card transactions on the Visa or Mastercard network and continue to pay interchange fees that often rank as their second or biggest expense, or they could select a lower cost alternative," Durbin told the committee. Visa and Mastercard, however, stand by their swipe fees. "We consider them incentives, some people might consider them penalties. But if you can adopt new technology that reduces the risk and takes fraud out of the system and improves streamlined processing, then you would qualify for lower interchange rates," said Bill Sheedy, senior advisor to Visa CEO Ryan McInerney. "It's very expensive to issue a product and to provide payment guarantee and online customer service, zero liability. All of those things, and many more, senator, get factored into interchange [fees]." The executives also warned against the Credit Card Competition Act, with Sheedy claiming that it "would remove consumer control over their own payment decisions, reduce competition, impose technology sharing mandates and pick winners and losers by favoring certain competitors over others." "Why do we know this? Because we've seen it before," Mastercard President of Americas Linda Kirkpatrick said, in reference to the Durbin amendment to the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, which required the Fed to limit fees on retailers for transactions using debit cards. "Since debit regulation took hold, debit rewards were eliminated, fees went up, access to capital diminished, and competition was stifled."But the current high credit card swipe fees for retailers translate to higher prices for consumers, the National Retail Federation told the committee in a letter ahead of the hearing. The Credit Card Competition Act, the retail industry's largest trade association wrote, will deliver "fairness and transparency to the payment system and relief to American business and consumers.""When we think of consumer spending, credit card swipe fees are not the first thing that comes to mind, yet those fees are a surprisingly large part of consumer spending," . "Last year, the average American spent $1,100 in swipe fees, more than they spent on pets, coffee or alcohol." Visa and Mastercard agreed to a $30 billion settlement in March meant to reduce their swipe fees by four basis points for three years, but a federal judge rejected the settlement in June, saying they could afford to pay more.Visa is also battling a Justice Department lawsuit filed in September. The payment network is accused of maintaining an illegal monopoly over debit card payment networks, which has affected "the price of nearly everything," according to Attorney General Merrick Garland.
Republicans to Visa and Mastercard: Figure it out, or we will - Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle pressed executives from Visa and Mastercard on the cost of so-called swipe fees to small businesses and consumers. In a Senate Judiciary hearing Tuesday morning, some Republican lawmakers signaled openness to joining their Democratic counterparts in supporting the Credit Card Competition Act.
Fed: Elevated asset valuations could threaten financial stability - A combination of elevated asset values and low market liquidity could leave the U.S. financial system vulnerable to shocks, according to a report from the Federal Reserve. In its latest financial stability report, the Federal Reserve warned high equity valuations and low levels of liquidity could leave the financial system vulnerable to shocks.
MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.47% in Octoberr --From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.47% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.47% as of October 31, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 235,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.4 million borrowers since March 2020. The share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance increased 7 basis points to 0.20% in October 2024. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by 30 basis points to 1.06%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 6 basis points to 0.43%.“Approximately 65,000 more borrowers are in forbearance compared to one month ago,” “While forbearances are still low compared to the height of the pandemic, the monthly increase in forbearances is the largest since May 2020 and likely driven by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.” Added Walsh, “Of those loans in forbearance, 45 percent are related to natural disasters while the remaining 55 percent are primarily related to temporary hardship such as job loss, death, divorce, or disability. Notwithstanding the storms, some borrowers may be experiencing other economic distress. October marks the fifth consecutive month in which the forbearance rate has increased, and the performance of overall servicing portfolios and loan workouts weakened compared to this time one year ago.At the end of October, there were about 235,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.
MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey -From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 43 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week and was 1 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Mortgage rates moved higher for the fourth consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.90 percent, its highest level since July 2024. However, even with the uptick in rates, overall mortgage applications increased,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The pickup in purchase applications was driven by conventional and FHA loans, with FHA purchase applications seeing a 7 percent increase. For-sale inventory has loosened in some markets and some potential buyers have been able to take advantage of increasing supply and lower FHA rates which were down slightly in comparison to the conforming 30-year fixed rate. Refinance activity rose slightly last week, driven largely by a 10 percent increase in VA applications.” ... The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.90 percent from 6.86 percent, with points increasing to 0.70 from 0.60 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index. According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 1% year-over-year unadjusted. Purchase application activity is up about 9% from the lows in late October 2023, but still about 10% below the lowest levels during the housing bust. The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index increased as mortgage rates declined in September but has decreased as rates moved back up.
Housing Nov 18th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.1% Week-over-week, Up 26.7% Year-over-year Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now 2.4% below the peak for the year (4 weeks ago). Inventory will now decline seasonally until early next year.The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. The red line is for 2024. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 26.7% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 27.3%), and down 18.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 19.2%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is about two-thirds closed. This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of Nov 15th, inventory was at 722 thousand (7-day average), compared to 722 thousand the prior week. Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.
California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October -Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 9.5% SA YoY in October Excerpt: The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is scheduled to release October Existing Home sales on Thursday, Nov 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.88 million SAAR, up from 3.84 million in September. Last year, the NAR reported sales in October 2023 at 3.85 million SAAR. This will be the first year-over-year gain since August 2021 following 37 months with a year-over-year decline. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.97 million SAAR for October. ... From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California housing market bounces back in October as both home sales and median price post increases from previous month and year, C.A.R. reports October’s sales pace climbed 4.7 percent from the 253,010 homes sold in September and was up 9.5 percent from a year ago, when a revised 241,910 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The year-over-year sales pace reached its highest level in 40 months, partly because of a low sales base in 2023, when sales dropped nearly 12 percent compared to the previous year.There is much more in the article.
Why many young adults in the U.S. are still living with their parents --Approximately 1 in 3 U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 live in their parents' home, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.The pandemic caused more young adults to return home or remain living with their parents into their late 20s and 30s, but aside from that spike, the numbers have remained fairly consistent in recent years.Pre-pandemic, the most recent surge in the share of 18- to 34-year-olds living with their parents occurred between 2005 and 2015, according to data from the Census Bureau. "Those were the times coming [during] the Great Recession and coming out of the Great Recession, and there were a lot of media narratives at the time about millennials eating too much avocado toast to live on their own," said Joanne Hsu, who co-authored a 2015 study on "boomerang" kids for the Federal Reserve. "What we found was that part of the reason we see this escalation of young adults not leaving the nest or returning to the nest is this idea that it was harder and harder for them to weather shocks," Hsu said. Economic shocks are significant and unexpected events that disrupt financial stability and markets, which then affect households' income, employment and debt levels. The 2008 financial crisis, the Great Recession and the pandemic are all examples of economic shocks.More than half of Gen Z adults say they don't make enough money to live the life they want due to the high cost of living, according to a 2024 survey from Bank of America. A significant number of millennials and Gen Z adults lack emergency savings.
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October --From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000. This is 3.1 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,353,000 and is 4.0 percent below the October 2023 rate of 1,365,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 970,000; this is 6.9 percent below the revised September figure of 1,042,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 326,000. Building Permits:Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000. The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts. Total housing starts in October were below expectations, however starts in August and September were revised up, combined. …
Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in October were below expectations, however, starts in August and September were revised up, combined. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red). Total starts were down 4.0% in October compared to October 2023. The YoY decrease in October total starts was mostly due weakness in multi-family starts. Single family starts have been up year-over-year in 13 of the last 16 months, whereas multi-family has been up year-over-year in only 2 of last 17 months. Year-to-date (YTD), total starts are down 3.2% compared to the same period in 2023. Single family starts are up 9.3% YTD, and multi-family down 29.3% YTD. There is much more in the article.
NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in November --The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 46, up from 43 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Moves Higher as Election Uncertainty is Lifted - Builder sentiment improved for the third straight month and builders expect market conditions will continue to improve with Republicans winning control of the White House and Congress. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 46 in November, up three points from October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. “With the elections now in the rearview mirror, builders are expressing increasing confidence that Republicans gaining all the levers of power in Washington will result in significant regulatory relief for the industry that will lead to the construction of more homes and apartments,” “This is reflected in a huge jump in builder sales expectations over the next six months.” “While builder confidence is improving, the industry still faces many headwinds such as an ongoing shortage of labor and buildable lots along with elevated building material prices,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Moreover, while the stock market cheered the election result, the bond market has concerns, as indicated by a rise for long-term interest rates. There is also policy uncertainty in front of the business sector and housing market as the executive branch changes hands.” The latest HMI survey also revealed that 31% of builders cut home prices in November. This share has remained essentially unchanged since July, hovering between 31% and 33%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5%, slightly below the 6% rate posted in October. The use of sales incentives was 60% in November, slightly down from 62% in October. ... All three HMI sub-indices were up in November. The index charting current sales conditions rose two points to 49, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months increased seven points to 64 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a three-point gain to 32. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased four points to 55, the Midwest moved three points higher to 44, the South edged up one point to 42 and the West held steady at 41. This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985. This was above the consensus forecast.
AIA: Architecture Billings "Moderates" in October; Multi-family Billings Declined for 27th Consecutive Month -Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: ABI October 2024: Business conditions at architecture firms begin to moderate The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month was 50.3, meaning that the share of firms that reported declining billings was essentially equal to the share of firms that reported increasing billings. In addition, inquiries into new projects ticked up in October to the highest level in six months. However, despite declining interest rates and softening inflation, clients remain hesitant to start new projects. The value of newly signed design contracts softened further in October, as they declined for the seventh consecutive month. Responding firms this month indicated that many clients were still awaiting the outcomes of the November elections, at both a national and more local level, before determining how to proceed on new projects. Business conditions varied significantly across the country in October. While firms located in the Northeast saw billings decline further from September, firms located in the South reported billings growth for the first time in two years. And while billings continued to decline at firms located in the Midwest and West, the pace of the decline in those regions slowed from recent months. Conditions also varied at firms of different specializations this month. Firms with an institutional specialization saw slight billings growth for the first time since January, while business conditions remained softer at firms with multifamily residential and commercial/industrial specializations. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
• Northeast (45.6); Midwest (46.9); South (52.1); West (47.6)
• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (47.0); institutional (50.5); multifamily residential (45.6)
This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 50.3 in October, up from 45.7 in September. Anything above 50 indicates an increase in demand for architects' services. This index has indicated contraction for 23 of the last 25 months. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment into 2025. Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for twenty-seven consecutive months (with revisions). This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.
• Occupancy: 62.6% (-3.5%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.11 (-0.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$97.73 (-3.5%)
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average. The red line is for 2024, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023. Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue) - and will likely finish mostly unchanged year-over-year. The 4-week average of the occupancy rate has peaked for the fall business travel season and will decline seasonally through the holidays.
Long Beach Port Traffic Surges to Record in October; Importers Rushing to Beat Tariffs? I'll have more on port traffic once Los Angeles releases their data for October. From the Port of Long Beach: Port of Long Beach Reaches All-Time Record in OctoberThe Port of Long Beach moved nearly 1 million cargo containers in October, achieving its strongest month in its 113-year history, driven by brisk demand for holiday goods and delayed containership arrivals caused by a nearby traffic incident and fire that affected some terminal operations at the end of September. Dockworkers and terminal operators moved 987,191 twenty-foot equivalent units in October, up 30.7% from the same month last year and surpassing the Port’s previous all-time one-month record set just two months earlier in August 2024 by 8%. Imports jumped 34.2% to 487,563 TEUs and exports rose 25.3% to 112,845 TEUs. Empty containers moved through the Port grew 28.1% to 386,782 TEUs. October also marked the Port’s fifth consecutive monthly year-over-year cargo increase.The Port of Long Beach inbound traffic is up almost 30% year-over-year for the last four months as importers are apparently rush to stockpile goods prior to the implementation of the new tariffs. The Port of Los Angeles has seen a similar surge in imports.
LA Ports: Inbound Traffic Increased Sharply Year-over-year in October Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12-month average. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 2.2% in October compared to the rolling 12 months ending in August. Outbound traffic increased 0.9% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports). Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year. Imports were up 29% YoY in October, and exports were up 11% YoY. This was a very strong July through October period for imports as retailers prepare for holiday shopping - and likely to stockpile goods prior to the increase in tariffs.
Gallup: Public Support For Gun-Bans Craters - According to Gallup’s latest polling, support for a handgun ban has fallen to just 20 percent and support for an “assault weapons” ban has cratered to just 52 percent.Gun bans were a constant call from both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris over the last four years. President Biden often combined the call with dubious factual, legal, and historical arguments.Jonathan Turley previously wrote about the failure of politicians to acknowledge the limits posed by the Second Amendment and controlling case law. While there are good-faith objections to how the Second Amendment has been interpreted, the current case law makes such bans very difficult to defend.In 2008, the Supreme Court handed down a landmark ruling in District of Columbia v. Heller, recognizing the Second Amendment as encompassing an individual right to bear arms.Yet, the 2024 campaign showed a belated recognition that the Administration has failed to galvanize public opinion in support of gun limits and bans.Harris came under fire during the campaign when she suddenly seemed to embrace one of the very guns that she previously vilified as it became clear that she was too far left from much of the country.Years ago, Turley wrote that the rise in gun ownership in the United States, including among minority gun owners, was strikingly out of sync with the Democratic talking point.In 2019, support for an assault weapons ban stood at 61%. It is now barely at a majority.
Texas death row developments: Stay of execution blocked for Robert Roberson, Melissa Lucio ruled innocent -- The Texas Supreme Court has cleared the way for innocent man Robert Roberson to be executed for a crime that never happened. The ruling comes in response to a subpoena for Roberson’s testimony issued by the state House Committee on Criminal Jurisprudence, which led to the state Supreme Court temporarily halting his execution last month to consider the request. Roberson’s attorney, Gretchen Sween, asked for the state to refrain from setting a new execution date given “the overwhelming new evidence of innocence.”The delay was initially rendered at the eleventh hour on the night of October 17, literally an hour before his scheduled execution.Roberson is innocent of a crime which in fact never happened. He is facing the death penalty for the murder his 2-year-old daughter via “shaken baby syndrome” (SBS). The fact is that experts have established that Roberson’s daughter, who was in the hospital more than 40 times before she died, in fact died from undiagnosed pneumonia which progressed to sepsis. The pneumonia was likely worsened by inappropriate medications prescribed in her final days. Brain scans found in the basement of the district clerk’s office in 2018 showed SBS was not the cause of death. SBS itself as a valid cause of death was in any case subsequently called into question by medical experts.The state Supreme Court explicitly ruled on the basis of facilitating rapid executions, regardless of innocence, writing, “Categorically prioritizing a legislative subpoena over a scheduled execution … would become a potent legal tool that could be wielded not just to obtain necessary testimony but to forestall an execution.”That is, the right of the state to execute people supersedes any question over innocence or the truth. Regardless of the circumstances, innocence or guilt, the state asserts its right to kill with impunity.
AI photos showing girl students with nude bodies roil private school in Pennsylvania Images that depict the faces of girls with nude bodies have led to the departure of leaders from a private school in Pennsylvania, prompted a student protest and triggered a criminal investigation.A juvenile suspect was “removed from” Lancaster Country Day School and his cellphone was seized by investigators in August, Susquehanna Regional Police Department Detective Laurel Bair said Tuesday.It’s the latest example of how the use of artificial intelligence to create or manipulate images with sexual content has become a concern, including within school settings.U.S. law enforcement has been cracking down on graphic depictions of computer-generated children as well as manipulated photos of real ones. The Justice Department says it’s pursuing those who exploit AI tools and states are racing to enact laws to address the problem.A new Pennsylvania state law that takes effect late next month explicitly criminalizes making or disseminating AI-generated child sexual abuse material.And police in South Korea are on a seven-month push to combat explicit deepfake content, with tougher penalties, expanded use of undercover officers and increased regulation of social media. Concerns in South Korea deepened after unconfirmed lists of schools with victims spread earlier this year. As part of the police investigation into what the Lancaster Country Day School describes as “disturbing AI generated photographs,” a search warrant was used this summer to obtain an iPhone 11 linked to a 15-year-old, according to court records. The records do not identify the teen.A woman told police that her daughter said a fellow student had been “taking photographs of students and using Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology to portray the female juvenile students as being nude,” according to a probable cause affidavit used to apply for the search warrant.Matt Micciche, then the head of the school, told police the school had received a complaint about the photos in November 2023 through the Safe2Say Something program but the suspect, identified by his initials, denied the allegations, according to Bair’s affidavit.When some parents became aware of the photos in May, Bair wrote, they also learned that the “AI nude photographs” had been posted in a chat room.Bair, leading the investigation because the suspect lives in the Susquehanna Regional Police Department’s territory, said there has been shock at the school “that this is even occurring and that it happened within their small community.” She declined to say how many girls had been shown in the images but added that more information about the case will likely be made public in the coming two weeks.
32 state attorneys general call on Congress to pass Kids Online Safety Act A bipartisan coalition of more than 30 attorney generals is urging Congress to pass the Kids Online Safety Act (KOSA) this year, stating the legislation will “establish better safeguards for minors online.” In a letter sent to leadership offices in the House and Senate, the 32 attorneys general said they are concerned about the negative impacts “prolific internet usage” has on children. “We are acutely aware of the threats minors face on social media. Many social media platforms target minors, resulting in a national youth mental health catastrophe,” the letter, led by Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti (R), stated. “These platforms make their products addictive to minor users, and then profit from selling minor user data to advertisers,” the letter continued. “These platforms fail to disclose the addicting nature of their products, nor the harms associated with increased social media use. Instead, minor users receive endless tailored and toxic content.” The letter comes as KOSA faces an uncertain future in the House, where leadership has expressed concerns the bill would censor conservative voices or overstep authority. KOSA, which passed the Senate in a 91-3 vote last summer, is intended to boost online privacy and safety for children. It would create regulations for the kinds of features tech and social media companies offer kids online and aims to reduce the addictive nature and mental health impact of these platforms. To make their case for KOSA, the attorneys general pointed to the investigations and lawsuits led by many of their offices against Meta and TikTok for alleged harm to minors. More than a dozen states and the District of Columbia filed suit against TikTok last month, alleging the platform exploits and harms young users and “deceives” the public about these dangers. Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, is similarly facing state-led suits accusing the tech giant of knowingly designing and deploying harmful features on its platforms. The attorneys general said congressional passage of KOSA will aid state-level efforts by mandating social media platforms have the strongest safety settings by default and allowing kids and their parents or guardians to opt out of the “most addictive product features” and algorithmic recommendations. The bill would also give parents new controls to “support their children and identify harmful behaviors,” and improve their reporting abilities, the state leaders noted.
Florida leads the US in the sharp rise in books banned in schools - Last week, Florida’s Department of Education released a list of over 700 books that are banned from school libraries in the K–12 public school system. These bans have been spearheaded over the last three years by the far-right group Moms for Liberty and the state’s fascist governor, Ron DeSantis. They provide an indication of what the far right has in mind in terms of widespread censorship, including ultimately censorship of left-wing views, which will not be fought or blocked by the Democratic Party. In 2023–24, Florida has banned 400 more books than last year, largely because of a 2023 state law, HB 1069, that prohibits the state’s schools from holding books that depict “sexual conduct” or are “inappropriate for the grade level and age group for which the material is used.” The law allows small numbers of Christian fundamentalist and/or fascist parents to challenge the placement of books in school libraries. The Florida Freedom to Read Project notes that the number may be much higher since the state “only requires that they report what each district considers an objection to material, and many of those objections were still ‘pending’ a final decision by the end of the 23/24 school year.” Florida has chalked up 4,500 individual instances of book banning in its 71 school districts in the last three years, the most in the United States. Escambia County on the Alabama border has the highest number of book bans at some 1,600, followed by Orange County with 700 instances and Clay County with 400. Among the books banned most often in Florida are works by Toni Morrison and Kurt Vonnegut and juvenile fiction such as Thirteen Reasons Why by Jay Asher, The Perks of Being a Wallflower by Stephen Chbosky and Speak by Laurie Halse Anderson. A graphic novel based on George Orwell’s 1984 has also been banned. Slaughterhouse Five Nationally, according to PEN America, book bans increased about 200 percent last year, with Florida and Iowa leading the pack, followed by Texas. Only Nineteen Minutes, a novel about a school shooting by bestselling author Jodi Picoult, is the most banned book in the US and Margaret Atwood’s The Handmaid’s Tale, about a Christian-fascist dystopia in the US, is one of the most banned books in Florida. According to media reports, sales of the book have increased almost 7,000 percent since Trump’s re-election. This surge is significant as much of the American population tries to come to terms with the implications of Trump’s return to the White House. The expulsion of immigrants, the continued slaughter in Palestine, war plans against China and Iran and the dismantling of public health infrastructure are all to be accompanied by censorship and the stultification of children, where anything resembling modern culture is suppressed.
The Chicago Teachers Union is amping up pressure over contract negotiations – The Chicago Teachers Union this week stepped up pressure on Chicago Public Schools in contentious talks over a new contract — while district leaders countered they have made generous offers at a precarious financial time.The union’s president, Stacy Davis Gates, this week sent a letter to Mayor Brandon Johnson, a close CTU ally, asking him to intervene because CEO Pedro Martinez “has slow-walked negotiations.” On Thursday evening, the union also held a rally downtown that drew a raucous standing-room-only crowd to decry Donald Trump’s reelection — and to argue that it adds extra urgency to wrapping up the contract talks, which began in April and continued as the current contract expired in June.On a Thursday call with reporters, district officials argued that the two sides have made headway in the talks, though key areas of contention remain at a time when a major expansion of staff and other spending could imperil the already deficit-plagued district. CPS faces a half-billion dollar deficit next school year after its federal COVID aid runs out this year.District officials said the union’s full slate of proposals would add $5.5 billion in some 13,000 additional staff positions and $3.7 billion in compensation increases over the four years of the contract.Union officials cast doubt on those figures but declined to provide a more recent cost of their proposals, citing “fluid” ongoing negotiations.“We are not still at our initial proposal at this stage of bargaining, so I think what they’re trying to do is a PR ploy to improve their bargaining position and try to put the least amount of money that they possibly can into investing in schools and school communities,” Thad Goodchild, deputy general counsel for the union, told Chalkbeat.The bargaining over a new contract was at the heart of a major clash between Martinez and Johnson, which has led to months of CPS turmoil — and might yet cost the CEO his job.The schools chief and mayor have disagreed over how to pay for the cost of the contract amid a darkening financial outlook for the district, which is spending down the last of its federal COVID dollars and has no clear prospects for added revenue. The union has put forth its most far-reaching and costliest slate of hundreds of proposals yet — one it has presented as a blueprint for a major district transformation.“Our students are making tremendous progress,” said Bogdana Chkoumbova, the district’s chief education officer. “Our focus has been on how we can sustain and build on this progress in a challenging budget environment.”But, she added, “The gap between the CTU’s proposals and our financial situation is significant.”
India now top source of international students in U.S. --India has overtaken China as the top source of international students for U.S. colleges, according to a report from Open Doors. For the 2023-2024 school year, India saw a massive 23 percent increase in the number of college students sent to America, up to 331,602. China, meanwhile, saw a 4 percent decrease in the number of students sent to U.S. colleges and universities, according to Open Doors, which is published by the Department of State’s Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs and the Institute of International Education. nThe U.S. saw a record number of international students overall in the 2023-2024 year at 1.1 million, an increase of 7 percent from the previous year. Together, China and India, which last ranked No. 1 in 2009, make up more than half of those. A majority of international students in the U.S. pursue STEM fields, such as engineering, computer science and math. “As we celebrate 75 years of Open Doors, we are thrilled to report that this year marks a record high of international students in the United States,” said Allan Goodman, the CEO of Institute of International Education. “International students enrich our campuses, foster cultural exchange, and contribute significantly to our economy, and we remain dedicated to supporting these bright minds and ensuring that the U.S. continues to be a premier destination for global education.” On the flip side, more students in the U.S. are also going abroad to study. In the 2022-2023 academic year, more than 280,000 U.S. students left the country to study, a 49 percent increase from the prior year, which was during the pandemic.“Italy, the United Kingdom, Spain, and France remained the leading host destinations, with nearly half (45%) of all students studying in these top four destinations,” the report read.
Homeless astrophysics professor speaks out on poverty pay at UCLA -- A TikTok video of a UCLA astrophysics professor made homeless by unlivable wages has struck a nerve globally. “I was paid so poorly last year and currently that I was forced to move all of my belongings into a public storage unit and I can no longer live in my one-bedroom apartment in Westwood [UCLA-adjacent area],” McKeown explained on a TikTok video which has garnered more than 1.6 million views. McKeown’s video has gone viral and the majority of comments show a healthy stream of support stemming from various workers and students around the globe. “Teachers should be one of the highest paid workers of society,” one viewer said. “For those who say ‘well, you should get another job or in a different industry’ are missing the point,” added another. The World Socialist Web Site spoke with professor McKeown, who provided more insight on his current situation and his fight for fair compensation. McKeown graduated from the University of California Irvine in 2022 with a PhD in physics and then did a year as a postdoc at UCI while he looked for a new job. It took 10 months before he was hired as a full-time lecturer at UCLA in September of 2023. “It was a lot longer than people said it would take,” McKeown acknowledged. McKeown entered the job optimistic: “They said, this is a great role, the benefits are great, you’ll do wonderful. The pay seemed a little bit low for me, but I didn’t have any experience living in Los Angeles. I lived in Irvine at the time in graduate housing. I asked if they had housing assistance and Per Kraus, the person who hired me, my supervisor, said no they didn’t. So I found an apartment for $2,500 a month. It was the cheapest one that I could find.” “I trusted them,” he commented. “I trusted that it’s a good school. I’m not worried about this. I’m just excited to have my job. They’ll probably give me a good raise and everything will work out” That trust was betrayed, as UCLA and the union had worked together to keep faculty wages stagnant, forcing him into a desperate financial situation. McKeown’s union, the American Federation of Teachers (AFT), plays a key role in maintaining this exploitative structure. McKeown pointed out that his salary was set by the union, not directly by UCLA, yet the AFT has done nothing to mobilize its members for meaningful action.Moreover, the UC itself is facing a half-billion-dollar budget gap and the Board of Regents almost universally approved a tuition hike this week. McKeown relied on his savings to make ends meet for the time being. By the time McKeown signed his new two-year contract with UCLA, his savings were completely dried up. “I asked to renegotiate my salary because I realized that I was in denial, that I wasn’t being paid enough, and that I needed to negotiate with the department for a higher amount,” McKeown said. “I asked for $100,000 because technically I should be making more than $100,000.” “I could not make $70,000 a year work,” he added. “Well in advance before I started making any of these TikTok videos, I told them, ‘I’m sorry, we have to renegotiate this. I want to keep teaching in person, but I’m about to lose my apartment.’ They said, nope, we’re not going to do anything, no changes, go get a second job, go work somewhere else.” McKeown said that he instructs close to 300 to 400 students each semester and is an active researcher in quantum entanglement and partial measurement, which has applications in quantum computing. “I did the math,” McKeown added. “Each student pays about four to five thousand dollars in tuition to take my course. UCLA is making five million dollars off of my work. I’m bringing five million dollars to the school as a result of my teaching. And I felt like it was a little weird that they’re paying me so poorly.”
Faculty at California State University, Long Beach censured for exposing ties between the university and the military - Five faculty members at the California State University, Long Beach (CSULB) received a warning in September from the campus administration for allegedly violating the university’s “Time, Place and Manner Policy,” (TPM) a collection of restrictions on academic freedom of speech specifically targeted to suppress dissent against the Gaza genocide in particular, and US domestic and foreign policy in general. The five professors who have been targeted are Araceli Esparza, Professor of English; Azza Basarudin, Associate Professor of Women’s, Gender, and Sexuality Studies; Jake Alimahomed-Wilson, Professor of Sociology; Sabrina Alimahomed-Wilson, Professor of Sociology, and Steven Osuna, Associate Professor of Sociology. The “violation” they committed, according to the TPM policy, is the use of a microphone or megaphone at campus protests against the genocide in Gaza. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the real reason for their persecution lies in the fact that these five faculty members, referred to by supporters as the CSU-5, were the authors last May of an exposé on what they call the “Golden Triangle” of military, industry and university cooperation. The op-ed reveals in particular the “financially reciprocal relationship” between military contractor Boeing and CSULB, one of 16 universities across the US to adhere to what is known as the “Boeing Partnership,” a program that, as the faculty correctly pointed out, “is a university-corporate alliance that has further transformed CSULB into a public relations mouthpiece for the defense contractor.” The authors of the exposé also observe that, “The CSULB-Boeing partnership illustrates not only how defense contractors such as Boeing, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman profit from Israel’s violence against Palestinians, but also how these massive corporations simultaneously undermine the mission of public universities by harming students domestically and facilitating genocide, militarism, and mass death abroad.” The statement also connects the assault on public education with unlimited military funding: “it is also critical to expose how the complicity of US universities in Israeli militarism and Palestinian genocide extends far beyond investments in stocks. Under constant threats of austerity measures and the steady erosion of state funding in the neoliberal context, large public university systems like the California State University (CSU) system have quietly become embedded with defense contractors saturating every facet of campus life.” This exposé comes at a time of heightened conflict between Boeing, the Biden administration and the International Association of Machinists (IAM) union leadership on one side, and the rank-and-file Boeing workers on the other: the sellout contract forced through by the union leadership earlier this month in collusion with the Biden administration, concerned with the repercussions of unrest for one of the US major defense contractors, prioritizes corporate profits and broader pro-war policies instead of addressing decades of wage stagnation, rising medical costs, and insufficient benefits. As a result of this collusion, more than 2,500 layoff notices have already been issued for US-based workers and the company plants to cut 17,000 jobs globally. With reference to the relentless attacks on democratic rights that students and faculty have suffered, especially in the last year since the Israeli onslaught in Gaza, the professors underline, “The university-corporate nexus has become all-encompassing, producing deleterious consequences for students, faculty, and staff while undermining the university’s mission of promoting the ‘public good.’” The university’s “mission” is the product of political control exerted by the Democratic Party in the Golden State. The California State University (CSU) Board of Trustees is a 25-member body responsible for appointing presidents for the 23 CSU campuses, including California State University, Long Beach. Members of the Board include ex officio members such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis, the Speaker of the Assembly Robert Rivas, the State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, and the CSU Chancellor Mildred García. They all abide by the Democratic Party’s imperialist rule. In this context, there is no worse crime the five CSULB educators could have committed than exposing the crimes of the state and revealing the truth about social relations: while adequate resources cannot be allocated for fundamental social rights, such as public education, health and secure jobs, governments of both big-business parties allocate gargantuan funds for military aggression and imperialist domination. This is why these professors were targeted by a political establishment that is increasingly coming into conflict with democratic forms of rule and resorts to militarism to offset its decline in global economic position.
Very few US adults getting new flu, COVID, RSV vaccines, even in nursing homes - A pair of new studies in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report highlight low influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine coverage in US adults, including those in nursing homes, this fall.The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends that everyone aged 6 months and older receive an updated COVID-19 vaccine and an annual flu vaccine. It also recommends that all nursing home residents aged 60 years and older receive a single lifetime dose of RSV vaccine. For the first study, investigators from the CDC analyzed data from the National Immunization Survey-Adult COVID Module, a random phone survey that tracks flu, COVID-19, and RSV vaccination uptake in US adults as of early November. The team also interviewed unvaccinated participants about their intent to receive the vaccines.By November 9, 34.7% of adults reported having received a flu vaccine dose, and 17.9% had received an updated COVID-19 vaccine for the 2024-25 respiratory virus season. A total of 39.7% of adults aged 75 years and older and 31.6% of those aged 60 to 74 at high risk for severe RSV had ever received an RSV vaccine. Uptake varied by jurisdiction and demographic characteristics and was lowest among younger adults and those with no health insurance. Despite low vaccine coverage, 35% of adults said that they definitely or probably would receive or were unsure about receiving the flu vaccine, and 41% said the same about the COVID-19 vaccine, meaning they hadn't ruled out vaccination. Forty percent of adults aged 75 years and older reported that they definitely or probably would receive or were unsure about receiving the RSV vaccine. The proportion of respondents who said that they probably or definitely wouldn't be vaccinated was highest for COVID-19 (41.6%) and lowest for RSV (20.3% among those aged 75 years and older and 14.8% among those aged 60 to 74).In comparison, flu vaccine coverage for the current season was 0.9 percentage points higher than during the corresponding period in 2023-24 (34.7% vs 33.8%) and 3.7 percentage points higher (58.6% versus 54.9%) in those aged 65 and older.Similarly, COVID-19 vaccine uptake was 4.7 percentage points higher this season (17.9%) than in the 2023-24 season (13.2%) and 13.7 percentage points higher (38.5% versus 24.8%) in those aged 65 and older.RSV vaccine coverage rose from the end of June 2024, when ACIP first recommended that older adults receive a single-dose RSV vaccine, to November 9. Among adults aged 75 years and older, uptake climbed 9.6 percentage points (from 30.1% to 39.7%) and among those aged 60 to 74 years, increased 8.7 percentage points (from 22.9% to 31.6%).
Survey Finds 60% Of Americans Probably Won't Get Updated COVID-19 Vaccine -A majority of Americans said that they are "probably not" going to get an "updated vaccine" against COVID-19, according to the Pew Research Center survey.The findings come as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advised individuals who are older than 65 or are immunocompromised to consider a second dose of the latest vaccine.The survey was conducted from October 21 to 27, involving nearly 9,600 participants in the U.S.While 60 percent of the individuals are not planning to get the updated vaccine, about 25 percent said that they are likely to get a booster and 15 percent confirmed that they had already taken the latest vaccine.Of those who are not likely to take booster vaccine, around 60 percent argued that they did not receive it as they were concerned about the possible side effects, 61 percent claimed that they did not need it, and 5 percent said that they were worried about the cost.
Adults with migraines at higher risk of depression during pandemic, study shows -A new Canadian study suggests migraine sufferers were at greater risk of developing depression during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic.The study, published yesterday in the Journal of Pain Research, focused on older Canadians who are part of the ongoing Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging.People with migraines are already at an increased risk of poor mental health outcomes, the authors said. But the added stressors of the pandemic, including healthcare disruption and isolation, had not yet been studied in this population.A total of 2,181 adults ages 45 to 85 with migraine were surveyed, with the main outcome being a positive screen for depression by the fall of 2020. Among respondents who had no history of depression, the cumulative incidence of depression was higher among those with migraine during the fall of 2020 (14.9%) than in those without migraine (11.8%).Among respondents with a history of depression, recurrence was significantly higher among those with migraine during the fall of 2020 (48.0%) compared to those without migraine (42.4%)."Access to comprehensive healthcare was already recognized as a major challenge for people with migraine prior to the pandemic," said co-author and medical student Aneisha Taunque, in a University of Torontopress release on the study. "We know access to healthcare worsened during the pandemic, which may have exacerbated mental health challenges among this population."
The Link Between Blood Types And Risks of COVID-19, Cancer, And Other Diseases - Blood types play a crucial role not only in ensuring safe blood transfusions but also in influencing various health risks.Numerous studies suggest that genetically determined blood types may increase susceptibility to both infectious and non-infectious diseases, including COVID-19, heart disease, and allergies.Blood is categorized into four main types—A, B, AB, or O—based on the types of antigens present on the surface of red blood cells. Antigens are proteins found on red blood cells that trigger an immuneA 2023 study from Harvard Medical School, published in the journal Blood, found that the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes COVID-19, preferentially targets type A blood cells.“We show that the part of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein that’s key to enabling the virus to invade cells displays affinity for blood group A cells, and the virus in turn also shows a preferential ability to infect blood group A cells,” Dr. Sean R. Stowell, of Harvard Medical School and Brigham and Women’s Hospital, said in a press release.Type A blood cells are more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection than type O blood cells, Stowell noted. “Among a group of several thousand people, some studies suggest that those with blood group A may be 20 percent more likely to be infected after exposure to SARS-CoV-2 compared with those who have blood group O.” Subsequent experiments indicated that the Omicron variant demonstrated an even stronger preference for infecting type A blood cells than the original virus.Other recent studies have explored the mechanisms linking blood type to susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2. One study showed that levels of ACE2 protein, the receptor that the virus binds to for cell entry, were significantly higher in people with type A blood compared to other blood types. The researchers also found that the binding rate of the spike protein to red blood cells was highest in people with type A blood and lowest in people with type O.Despite these associations, when assessing a person’s risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, factors such as age and pre-existing chronic conditions, like heart disease, tend to have more significant effects on the risk of severe SARS-CoV-2 infection than blood type.
Report: 1 in 5 animals at zoo tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, perhaps from people - Of 47 animals tested at a zoo in Brazil, 9 were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA on reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), with phylogenetic analysis suggesting they may have been infected by people, according to a reportpublished yesterday in Virology Journal. A team led by researchers from the Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais obtained oropharyngeal, rectal, and nasal swabs from 47 animals of different species at Belo Horizonte Zoo from November 2021 to March 2023."Zoos are unique in terms of the epidemiology of human-animal interactions," the authors wrote. "They shelter multiple species of wildlife from a wide range of taxonomic groups in relative proximity, and interactions between animals and humans are frequent, especially for animal caregivers."Roughly one fifth (19.1%) of the animals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Of 147 swabs, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in 5 rectal (10.6%), 3 oropharyngeal (6.3%), and 2 nasal (5.8%) samples.Three genome sequences identified two variants of concern: Alpha in a maned wolf and a fallow deer and Omicron in a western lowland gorilla. Animal-genome clustering close to human samples from the same region suggested potential human-to-animal viral transmission.From November 2021 to January 2022, although the zoo restricted visitor access as an infection-control measure, three animals tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, which the researchers said suggests that infection could have occurred through contact with zookeepers.But after the zoo reopened to visitors in February 2022, more animals tested positive, raising the question of whether visitors increased the risk of transmission to zookeepers, who may have then infected the animals through direct contact or aerosol exposure. "The detection of different variants suggests ongoing viral evolution and adaptation in new hosts," the researchers wrote. "Continuous monitoring and genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wildlife are essential for understanding its transmission dynamics and preventing future zoonotic outbreaks. These findings underscore the need for integrated public health strategies that include wildlife monitoring to mitigate the risks posed by emerging infectious diseases."
US respiratory virus activity remains low ahead of holiday season -Respiratory virus activity remained low in the United States last week, with COVID levels continuing to decline, but respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity on the rise, especially in young children, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in updates today.Earlier this week, the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases said though levels are low now, it anticipates rising levels, with peaks in respiratory disease activity often occurring between December and February.“The holidays are coming, and large gatherings, travel, and more time indoors can mean more viruses spreading. Fortunately, we have tools to help us stay healthy so we can enjoy the time we spend with our families, friends, and neighbors,” the group said, urging health providers to get vaccinated and to encourage patients to do the same.For COVID, emergency department visits—considered an early indicator—are still at the minimal level and on a downward trend. Deaths also remain at a low level, with preliminary data showing reports of 250 deaths for the week ending November 9.CDC’s wastewater tracking also shows SARS-CoV-2 detections remain at the low level, but are highest in the Midwest, followed by the West. Surveillance from WastewaterSCAN, national wastewater monitoring system based at Stanford University in partnership with Emory University, also shows detections at low levels, with no up or down trend seen over the last 3 weeks. The same held true for other viruses the group tracks, including influenza A, influenza B, RSV, human metapneumovirus, and enterovirus D68.In its latest variant proportion update, the CDC said the KP.3.1.1 variant levels declined further over the past 2 weeks, from 52% to 44%. Meanwhile, the proportion of XEC variant viruses rose from 26% to 38%. Meanwhile, other respiratory pathogens are on the rise, including pertussis, which this year has shown a return to prepandemic levels. In its latest update yesterday, the CDC said preliminary data shows that six times as many cases have been reported in 2024 compared the same period in 2023.Though Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection (“walking pneumonia”) isn’t a nationally notifiable condition, the CDC has reported a rise in activity, especially in young children, which it said differs from the usual pattern of the highest burden seen in older children and adolescents. CDC data show that ED visits for walking pneumonia rose steadily over the summer, peaking in kids ages 2 to 4 years old and those ages 5 to 17 years old in August.CDC tracking of M pneumoniae resistance to macrolides shows that the level in the United States is about 10%, which is lower than the 28% seen globally. However, within the United States, limited data show that resistance levels are higher in the South and East and within clusters and outbreaks that occurred before the COVID pandemic.
Studies describe high health toll, costs of RSV infections - A new study published today in JAMA Network Open shows 1 in 20 US adults were hospitalized within 28 days of a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection during the during the 2016 to 2022 RSV seasons. A second study, published in The Journal of Infectious Diseasesestimates the cost of RSV infections and hospitalizations in US infants to be $1.6 billion annually, with infants 3 months and younger accounting for 43% of the costs. Both studies show the significant economic burden of RSV in the most recent seasons, before the widespread availability of vaccines for both pregnant women and older adults.In the first study, the authors said approximately 159, 000 hospitalizations among adults aged 65 years and older occur annually in the United States due to RSV, with a cost of $1.2 billion annually.To understand how infection influences all-cause 28-day hospitalization, the authors used three electronic health databases to look at outcomes among 67,239 medically attended (outpatient) RSV infections in adults. The authors also examined outcomes among a subgroup of high-risk patients (defined as age 65 years or older with asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], or congestive heart failure [CHF]). RSV outpatient encounters occurring from October 1, 2016, to September 30, 2022, were included in the study.Overall, the proportion of patients hospitalized within 28 days of infection was 6.2%, 6.0%, and 4.5% in each of the three electronic health databases. Of these hospitalizations, a high proportion occurred following RSV infections in the high-risk subgroup of patients aged 65 years or older or with COPD, CHF, or asthma (ranging from 74.5% to 90.6% of patients across the three databases)."Approximately 5% of adults with outpatient MA-RSV infections experienced an all-cause hospitalization within 28 days," the authors concluded. "These results highlight the unmet medical need for outpatient interventions and preventive measures that can reduce hospitalizations."In the second study, authors developed a model to project the expected annual clinical and economic burden of medically attended lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI) caused by RSV in infants 12 months and under in the United States.Using information on population size, disease rates, mortality rates, and unit costs, the authors estimated that among 3.7 million US infants, a total of 592,700 cases of RSV-LRTI would occur annually. Those cases would include 48,499 hospitalizations, 144,599 emergency department visits, and 399,602 outpatient clinic visits.Together, the annual cost of these visits would be $1.6 billion. Children 3 months and younger and those born prematurely were disproportionately represented in hospitalizations."Given that most children develop RSV before the age of two years and that some of these children develop severe disease requiring hospitalization, the projected annual burden of RSV-LRTI is substantial," the authors wrote. "Newly approved and recommended interventions have the potential to yield substantive reductions in the burden of RSV-LRTI among infants, especially those most vulnerable such as the youngest of infants and those born prematurely."
Study describes rise in severe Shigella infections in Vancouver -A study in Vancouver found an increase in severe, multidrug-resistant (MDR) shigellosis cases and a shift in patient demographics, researchers reported yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases.For the study, a team of researchers from the University of British Columbia conducted a retrospective review of 163 patients diagnosed as having Shigella sonnei infections from 2015 through 2022. Based on clinically observed changes in the populations affected—from men who have sex with men (MSM) to people experiencing homelessness (PEH)— and shifts in antimicrobial susceptibility patterns, they stratified the case-patients into two periods: the historical period (2015 to 2020) and the recent period (2021 to 2022). Severe shigellosis was defined as including hospitalization, bacteremia, or death.Overall, there were 50 case-patients in the historical period and 113 in the recent period, and the infection rate rose from 8.3 to 56.5 cases per year. A review of patient demographics revealed that 98% of S sonnei infections during the historical period were in MSM, while 77% of infections in the recent period occurred in PEH. A significant increase in severe shigellosis cases was observed in the recent period compared with the historical period (61% vs 14%). Susceptibility of S sonnei to oral antibiotics also decreased significantly during the recent period. MDR was present in only 11 (22%) of historical isolates, compared with 109 (96%) from the recent period. Whole-genome sequencing of isolates from the recent period revealed the emergence of a dominant clone of MDRS sonnei, 3.6.1.1.2, with resistance to all first- and second-line agents but susceptibility to ceftriaxone. Shigella is transmitted by the oral-fecal route; via contaminated fomites, food, and water; or by direct person-to-person contact. Although sexual transmission is well-established in MSM, the study authors say transmission among PEH in Vancouver is likely occurring following exposure to fecally contaminated environmental surfaces and hands. A similar shift in patient demographics, driven by similar factors and overlap of the two populations, has been observed in Seattle."The introduction of Shigella into congregate living settings (shelters, SROs, etc.) among PEH with limited access to hygiene and sanitation likely created favorable conditions for its widespread transmission," they wrote.They add that host factors such as malnutrition, history of substance abuse, and associated health issues likely contributed to increased severity of infections in PEH."Potential interventions to reduce shigellosis in PEH include improved sanitation and handwashing, improved access to hygiene facilities, optimised nutrition, and, eventually, vaccination against Shigella," the authors concluded.
Deadly new multistate E coli outbreak linked to organic baby carrots --The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)said yesterday that 39 people in 18 states have been sickened in an Escherichia coliO121 outbreak, and ongoing investigations suggest organic whole and baby carrots sold by Grimmway Farms are making people sick. One person has died and 15 have been hospitalized in the outbreak. Washington state has the most cases, with 8; Minnesota and New York each report 5 cases; and California and Oregon each have 2 cases. Patients range in age from 1 to 75 years, with a median age of 29 years; 71% are female. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) said Grimmway Farms has recalled the products in question, which include organic whole carrots found at retail stores from August 14 through October 23, 2024, and organic baby carrots with best-if-used-by-dates ranging from September 11 through November 12, 2024.The carrots were sold under different brands at a number of popular retailers in the United States and Canada, including Trader Joe's, Wegman's, and Safeway. "State and local public health officials are interviewing people about the foods they ate in the week before they got sick. Of the 27 people interviewed, 26 (96%) reported eating carrots," the CDC said. "Do not eat any recalled bagged organic carrots," the CDC warned. "Check your refrigerators or freezers for recalled carrots and throw them away." In other E coli outbreak news, the Minnesota Department of Health (MDH) said 10 E coli O157 infections have been linked to hamburgers sold at Red Cow, a restaurant chain with locations in Hennepin, Ramsey and Olmsted counties, as well as Hen House Eatery in Minneapolis. So far, patients have reported meal dates of October 31 through November 7, and illness-onset dates range from November 4 through November 9, the MDH said. The agency added that restaurant owners are cooperating with state officials.
European surveillance study shows rise in carbapenem-resistant E coli Analysis of surveillance data from 17 European countries found an increase in Escherichia coli isolates carrying carbapenem-resistance genes, researchers reported yesterday in Eurosurveillance.The analysis focused on E coli sequence type (ST)131, a high-risk lineage that has emerged as a frequent source of severe, multidrug-resistant E coli infections worldwide, primarily urinary tract infections (UTIs). E coli ST131 has been associated with the worldwide spread of the extended-spectrum beta-lactamase geneblaCTX-M-15, which confers resistance to multiple classes of antibiotics. Carbapenems are a primary option for treating infections caused by E coli ST131. Among the 594 clinical isolates submitted by national reference laboratories in 17 European Union/European Economic Area countries, molecular analysis detected 18 different carbapenemase genes, primarily blaOXA-244 (230) and blaOXA-48 (224), which together accounted for 76% of isolates. The isolates carrying blaOXA-48 were detected in 14 countries, and those carrying blaOXA-244 in 12.While isolates carrying blaOXA-48 appeared earlier than those carrying blaOXA-244 (2012 vs 2017), their frequency of detection increased only moderately over time. In contrast, detection of isolates carryingblaOXA-244 increased sharply from 2021 to 2023. Isolates carrying blaOXA-244 formed multi-country clusters, while clusters of blaOXA-48-carrying isolates were predominantly detected within one country (eg, France or Ireland).The study authors said the age, sex, sample type, and travel history distribution of E coli isolates carryingblaOXA-244 suggest a potential association with community-acquired urinary tract infections."The increasing detection of carbapenemase genes in E. coli ST131 documented in this study is of concern because E. coli can cause a variety of infections in healthcare and community settings, frequently urinary tract infections, but also including bloodstream infection," they wrote. "Further spread of E. coli carrying carbapenemase genes would mean that carbapenems could no longer be consistently effective for empiric treatment of severe E. coli infections."
New data show antibiotic resistance, consumption climbing in Europe --New data released today by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) indicate that the European Union (EU) is not on track to meet targets for reducing antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and antibiotic consumption.The data from the European Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance Network (EARS-Net), released in conjunction with European Antibiotic Awareness Day, show that AMR levels remained high across the continent in 2023. Most troubling was a nearly 60% increase in bloodstream infections caused by carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae compared with the baseline year of 2019.Surveillance of hospital and community-level antibiotic consumption in the EU, meanwhile, showed an increase from 2019. Levels of AMR and antibiotic consumption in 2023 were both above 2030 targets set by the Council of the European Union.At a press conference, ECDC Director Pamela Rendi-Wagner, MD, noted that estimates based on EARS-Net data indicate that more than 35,000 people in the EU die each year from a drug-resistant infection, and more than 4.3 million European hospital patients acquire a healthcare-associated infection—many of them antibiotic-resistant—during their hospital stay."These numbers show one thing: that the problem is indeed huge," Rendi-Wagner said. "AMR takes a tremendous toll on patients and their families."The EARS-Net report contains both good and bad news. On the positive side, the estimated EU incidence of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bloodstream infections in 2023 (4.64 per 100,000 population) was 17.6% lower than 2019 and 0.15/100,000 lower than the 2030 target. Incidence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant Escherichia coli bloodstream infections (10.35/100,000) was 3.6% lower than 2019.But incidence of carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae bloodstream infections (3.97/100,000), which are resistant to multiple antibiotic classes and have severely limited treatment options, was 57.5% higher than 2019 and 1.58/100,000 higher than the 2030 target. And incidence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E coli bloodstream infections was 0.68/100,000 higher than the 2030 target."This poses a growing threat to patients in hospitals across the EU, in almost all member states," said Dominique Monnet, PharmD, PhD, head of the ECDC's Antimicrobial Resistance and Healthcare-Associated Infections program. "These are primarily healthcare-associated infections."EARS-Net data also show increases in bloodstream infections caused by other resistant pathogens, including vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium and piperacillin-tazobactam-, ceftazidime, and carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa.As in past years, the situation varies across the continent. While some EU countries have made progress, others are lagging. The highest estimated incidence of drug-resistant bloodstream infections was generally reported in countries in south or southeast Europe."Europe is, overall, trending in the wrong direction,"
First clade 1 mpox case detected in US, in California Over the weekend California reported the first known clade 1 mpox case in the United States, which involves someone who recently returned from an affected African country and sought care in San Mateo County.Health officials from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) have not confirmed if the infection is cause by clade 1b, a more transmissible and severe mpox virus causing a widespread outbreak that started in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).Dozens of African nations have reported clade 1b cases in recent months. The California case makes the United States the sixth country outside of Africa to report an imported clade 1 case, following the United Kingdom, Sweden, Germany, Thailand, and India.In 2022, clade 2 caused a global mpox outbreak primarily among men who have sex with men, including thousands of cases in California."The affected individual received health care in San Mateo County based on their travel history and symptoms. The individual is isolating at home and recovering," the CDPH said. "People who had close contact with this individual are being contacted by public health workers, but there is no concern or evidence that mpox clade I is currently spreading between individuals in California or the United States."The CDPH said it has sent samples to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). For now, officials recommend eligible citizens get vaccinated against mpox and take the standard precaution of avoiding close contact with a known case-patient.In a news release, the CDC said, "CDC is working with the state to identify and follow up with potential contacts." In other mpox news, Angola has reported its first mpox case, which involves a 28-year-old Congolese woman whose illness was detected in Luanda state. The clade is not yet known, but Angola is now the twentieth African country to report mpox.Also today, Nigeria launched its mpox vaccine campaign today, the third country in Africa to do so behind the DRC and Rwanda. Seven states will see vaccines delivered. As of the end of October, there are 1,442 suspected cases of mpox in 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.On November 22 the World Health Organization's mpox emergency committee meets to assess the latest developments and if the situation still warrants a public health emergency of international concern.
Mpox and H5N1 bird flu viruses continue on the march -Amidst a lackadaisical public health response, two viruses with pandemic potential continue to spread in the United States. The California Department of Health reported the first case of mpox in the United States caused by the clade I mpox virus. Concurrently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed five new human cases of H5N1 (bird flu) in the state of Washington. The mpox case is concerning because the clade I mpox virus causes more severe illness and death than the clade II virus and thus is considered “more aggressive.” The case fatality rate in clade I mpox outbreaks has ranged from three percent to 11 percent. The patient in California had recently traveled from East Africa and is assumed to have contracted the infection there, where an outbreak of clade I virus is ongoing. Based on symptoms and travel history, the patient was tested for mpox, which confirmed infection. The patient had mild symptoms and was permitted to return home and self-isolate there.In August, the World Health Organization declared the ongoing global clade I mpox infections in Africa a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). As reported by the WSWS at the time, the response of politicians and public health officials was largely silence with minimal follow-through to combat it.That lack of urgency has now resulted in the confirmed appearance of the virus in the United States. The failure of the global capitalist system to eradicate the virus has enabled the outbreaks in East and Central Africa to fester, which in turn enabled the virus to travel to the United States.At present, authorities believe that the mpox virus is spread only through close personal contact including sexual activity. Although they do not believe that casual contact poses a significant risk of transmission, they are nevertheless investigating travelers who shared the airplane with the patient in California.Previously, the rapid spread around the world of the clade II mpox virus raised the specter of respiratory transmission. A detailed review of the evidence in a Lancet Microbe article assessed the risk of respiratory transmission of clade II to be low, but could not rule it out and called for further studies and vigilance.Multiple outbreaks of clade II are still ongoing and were the subject of a WHO declaration of a PHEIC in 2022, which is still active. The WHO is holding an emergency meeting next week to determine whether PHEIC status still applies to these outbreaks of clade II. While clade I mpox virus appeared in North America for the first time, the CDC announced five new human cases of H5N1 avian influenza in the state of Washington. A sixth presumptive positive case there is under investigation. All five infected individuals are farmworkers who had mild symptoms and did not require hospitalization. They are assumed to have contracted the virus from infected dairy cattle on farms where they work.Wastewater monitoring in California has detected H5N1 virus in 21 of 28 monitoring sites statewide, including Los Angeles, San Francisco, Palo Alto, San Diego, and San Jose. Authorities do not know for certain how the H5N1 is getting into wastewater, but current hypotheses include unpasteurized milk, wild bird droppings, and discarded animal products.A recent case of H5N1 in a young man in British Columbia, who is critically ill, has undergone further study. Scientists isolated and sequenced the virus from the patient. They found that this H5N1 variant is different from the one circulating in birds and cattle in the US and CanadaThey also found that the virus has undergone several “unsettling” mutations. Specifically one mutation, known as PB2 E627X, makes it easier for the H5N1 virus to infect humans. This increases the potential for human-to-human transmission, which would very likely trigger a new pandemic. The mutation also makes the virus more lethal, helping to explain the patient’s critical illness.
WHO extends public health emergency for mpox -Following a meeting today of the World Health Organization (WHO) mpox emergency committee, the head of the WHO accepted the group’s recommendation that the outbreaks still warrant a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) under the International Health Regulations.The group’s meeting today was its second, following the initial declaration in the middle of August, which followed a surge in Africa, some of it involving the novel clade 1b virus. Unprecedented spread has affected 20 African countries this year, with six imported clade 1 cases now reported outside of Africa. The clade is different than the global clade 2 virus that prompted an earlier PHEIC for mpox.On X today, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said he accepted the group’s recommendation due to rising case numbers, expanding geographic spread, operational challenges in the field, and the need to conduct a coordinated response across countries. “I call on the affected countries to scale up their responses and for solidarity from the international community to help us end the outbreaks,” he said.The WHO said it will publish the emergency committee’s full report next week, along with its updated recommendations. WHO emergency committees typically meet every 3 months or more often as needed.
Flies carry bacteria – and some of those are resistant to antibiotics. What we found in three South African hospices -Houseflies live close to humans and domesticated animals and because they are so mobile they can easily spread bacteria that make people sick.They carry these disease-causing agents on their body surfaces and in their gut.Due to their diverse habitats, ability to fly long distances and attraction to decaying organic materials, houseflies greatly amplify the risk of human exposure to harmful microorganisms.A single housefly can carry enough of these to cause infantile diarrhea, cholera, bacillary dysentery, tuberculosis and anthrax.As microbiologists specializing in medical and veterinary bacteria and zoonosis, we collaborated on a study of bacterial communities harbored by houseflies in three hospices in South Africa. We used advanced methods to identify the bacteria.Our research identified an additional health risk: some of the microbes that the flies carried in their gut may be resistant to antibiotics. According to the World Health Organization, antimicrobial resistance occurs when bacteria, viruses, fungi and parasites no longer respond to antimicrobial medicines. Antibiotics and other antimicrobial medicines become ineffective and infections become difficult or impossible to treat.Antimicrobial resistance is one of the leading global public health threats. We chose hospices for our study because they house terminally ill patients with weak immune systems.A total of 657 houseflies were collected from the three hospices.Previously, the microbiological culture method was one of the most broadly used tools to identify microbial organisms.It was considered as a "gold standard" because of its ability to detect new bacterial species and test their susceptibility or resistance to antibiotics.However, with this old method many bacteria couldn't be cultivated, especially those harbored by insects.The bacteria are difficult to isolate, or they grow slowly in the culture.We were able to use new DNA sequencing methods that get around the need to grow cultures. They help us better understand the diversity of microorganisms on the flies.We found houseflies captured from hospices harbored highly diverse bacterial communities with antibiotic-resistant genes.The hospice with the highest prevalence of antibiotic resistance genes was in Bloemfontein. The reason for this prevalence might be the hospice's proximity to a nursery which produces seedlings for vegetable production, broiler chicks and piggeries.These types of agricultural activity often involve using antibiotics to prevent and limit the spread of diseases and as growth promoters.Antibiotics are widely used in animal husbandry, and antibiotic resistance genes are frequently detected in livestock waste around the world. The presence of houseflies in hospice surroundings is of particular concern because the patients are frail and resistant bacteria are a health hazard.
WHO: 3 countries report new cholera outbreaks -The World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday that three more countries have reported cholera outbreaks since its last update in October: Iraq, Lebanon, and South Sudan.Iraq has reported 571 cases, including 1 death. Lebanon has one case, and South Sudan has 49 cases, 1 of them fatal. So far 33 countries have reported cholera outbreaks this year.Cases in October were 42% lower than the same period in 2023, the WHO said. However, deaths rose 54%, a sign of severe outbreak response settings. Multiple factors include conflict, population displacement, natural disasters, impacts from climate change, and rural locations and flooding in areas with poor infrastructure and lack of healthcare access.“These cross-border dynamics have made cholera outbreaks increasingly complex and harder to control,” the WHO noted.This month oral cholera vaccine production reached record numbers, the highest since 2013; however, despite the progress, the global emergency stockpile in October had less than 600,000 doses, well below the 5 million needed for effective outbreak response, the report said. “This persistent shortage continues to hinder efforts to control cholera outbreaks and respond promptly to the spread of the disease.”
Poland detects polio in Warsaw wastewater sample -Poland's Chief Sanitary Inspectorate this week announced a polio detection in wastewater and urged health providers and parents to ensure that children have received all recommended polio vaccine doses. In a statement, officials said a sewage sample collected this month in Warsaw revealed poliovirus type 2. Over the past few years, similar detections were reported from Spain and the United Kingdom.Response steps have included expanding sewage testing in Warsaw, increasing surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis in children up to age 15 years old, and shoring up polio vaccine stocks.In a statement, officials said the current polio vaccination rate in 3-year-olds in 2023 was 86%, which is below the 95% level needed to prevent the spread of the virus.Europe has been free of the virus since 2002, and Poland recorded its last cases in 1982 and 1984.
Three countries report new polio cases -- Three countries have new polio cases this week, according to the latest weekly update from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI).Pakistan has one more wild poliovirus type 1 case, and Chad and Nigeria have more vaccine-derived cases.In Pakistan, the case-patient experienced paralysis in late September in Balochistan. The country now has reported 49 polio cases this year. Five circulating vaccine-derived polio type 2 (cVDPV2) cases were reported this week in Chad, from N’Djamena and Tandjile, with onsets of paralysis in August and September. The cases bring Chad’s 2024 total to 20.Nigeria reported a single case of cVDPV2 in September and now has 81 cases for the year. Of note, the GPEI also said an environmental sample in Poland shows cVDPV2, but there is no evidence of local circulation. The sample was obtained in October in Warsaw.
Construction dust in a Wisconsin neighborhood may have led to 2021-22 blastomycosis cluster A 2021-2022 blastomycosis outbreak that sickened five people—one fatally—and six dogs in a Wisconsin neighborhood may have stemmed from sources such as a riverbank, riverside trails or yards, or dust from extensive construction and excavation, a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-led research team reported yesterday inEmerging Infectious Diseases. Blastomycosis, which can lead to life-threatening disease in people and animals, is caused by the infectious Blastomycesfungus. Blastomyces thrives in moist, rich soil that, when disrupted, can lead to aerosolization of spores that can then be inhaled. Most US cases occur sporadically in the midwestern, south-central, and southeastern states, but clusters related to waterway-related occupational and recreational activities occasionally occur. In January 2022, a veterinarian notified the CDC, St. Croix County Public Health, and the Wisconsin Department of Health Services of four dogs with blastomycosis living within a radius of a few miles near the Willow River in St. Croix County. Two infections in humans in the same area were also reported. Investigators administered questionnaires to households located within a 1.5-mile diameter of the cluster and gathered information on exposures, symptoms, and risk factors occurring from September 2021 to March 2022. During the investigation, three more human cases and two additional canine blastomycosis cases were identified after public health officials notified veterinarians, clinicians, and residents. The median age of the human patients was 54 years, and all reported cough, fever, and fatigue. Two patients were hospitalized, and one died. Infected dogs were lethargic and very thin, with five having difficulty breathing and four having cough and fever. The CDC identified the causative species as Blastomyces gilchristii. Serologic testing was conducted in 89 of 147 human participants (61%) and 51 of 65 dogs (79%) with enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and immunodiffusion in the former and EIA in the latter. Of the 87 people who consented to further testing with a new EIA, one had Blastomyces antibodies, and 44 (51%) had immunoglobulin G antibodies. Male participants had 1.5 times the antibodies than females. People who had lived in the neighborhood for more years had a lower prevalence of antibodies (prevalence ratio [PR], 0.32).Eight of the 51 dogs (16%) tested positive for antibodies, 6 (75%) of whom had a blastomycosis diagnosis. The origin of the Blastomyces spores wasn't determined, but the authors said the riverbank, riverside trails or yards, or construction dust could have been sources. "Extensive neighborhood construction and excavation during the exposure period might have increased risk for exposure, because most recent home construction occurred close to the river," they wrote. "Construction and excavation have been implicated in previous clusters of blastomycosis."
Avian flu infects 1 more California dairy worker; CDC details sequencing from Washington cases -- The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) today reported one more human infection involving H5 avian influenza, raising its total to 27. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) added the case to its confirmed list today, which notes that all of California's cases are related to dairy cattle exposure. The case lifts the nation's number of human infections this year to 53 in seven states. California's outbreaks in dairy cattle began in late August, and since then the virus has hit 335 farms. The state is also battling a recent surge in outbreaks on commercial poultry farms (see related CIDRAP News story today). In other developments, the CDC, in an update on human cases today, reported new findings from genetic sequencing of samples from 11 human cases from poultry farms in Washington. It noted that some workers in Washington had mild upper respiratory symptoms, but none were hospitalized.Sequencing found no changes in the hemagglutinin (the "H5" part of the virus name) associated with increased infectivity or transmissibility in people. In three specimens, however, scientists identified a change known as NA-S247N that may slightly reduce susceptibility to neuraminidase inhibitor antiviral drugs, based on lab tests. Meanwhile, the CDC found a different change (PA-I38M) in the polymerase acidic protein of a virus from a recently confirmed case in California that has been associated with reduced susceptibility to the antiviral medication baloxavir marboxil. The change had been seen sporadically in a few avian flu viruses. The agency emphasized that the drug hasn't been recommended for treatment or post-exposure prophylaxis (prevention) of H5N1 infection.
California reveals suspected avian flu case in child with mild symptoms -The California Department of Public Health (CDPH) today said tests have identified a suspected avian flu infection in a child from Alameda County who had mild upper respiratory symptoms and no known contact with infected animals.If confirmed, the case would mark the second avian flu infection in a child in North America from a yet undetermined source. Last week, health officials in Canada reported an H5N1 infection in a previously healthy British Columbia teen who is hospitalized in critical condition.Also, if confirmed the California case would mark the second in the United States this year in a person without exposure to sick farm animals. The first was a Missouri patient who tested positive on a respiratory virus panel while hospitalized during the latter part of August. Serologic testing of a household contact showed that person was likely infected by the virus at the same time.The illness also comes amid a dramatic uptick in poultry outbreaks in states that are along the Pacific flyway at a time when migratory birds that carry the virus are flying south. Also, California continues to battle the virus at dairy farms in the Central Valley.The positive test showed a low-level detection, which the CDPH said suggests the child wasn't likely infectious. Repeat tests 4 days later were negative for avian flu, and other testing suggests that the child was positive for other respiratory viruses that could be the cause of the child's cold and flu symptoms.Specimens have been sent to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for confirmation testing. If confirmed, the illness would be California’s 27th of the year and its first not linked to sick animals on dairy or poultry farms. The child has been treated and is recovering at home. The CDPH, local health officials, and the CDC are investigating the source of the child's illness and assessing possible exposure to wild birds. Alameda County, home to Oakland, is in the San Francisco Bay area, and county officials said there are no commercial dairy herds in the county.Though the child's close family members also had mild respiratory symptoms, tests were negative for avian flu. However, family members tested positive for the other more common respiratory viruses that the child also had. Other contacts of the child have been notified and offered treatment out of an abundance of caution, the CDPH said. The child had attended daycare while experiencing symptoms and before the avian flu test was conducted.Local health officials have notified caregivers and families about health monitoring and the availability of preventive treatment and avian flu testing Tomas Aragon, MD, DrPH, CDPH director and state public health officer, said, "It's natural for people to be concerned, and we want to reinforce for parents, caregivers and families that based on the information and data we have, we don't think the child was infectious—and no human-to-human spread of bird flu has been documented in any country for more than 15 years."
CDC confirms H5N1 in California child as Hawaii details testing results - The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said today that its tests have confirmed H5N1 avian flu in California's recent suspected case, involving a child who had no known exposure to infected animals. Also, California announced another confirmed H5 case in a dairy farm worker. The new developments lift the state's total to 29 human cases of H5 avian flu and the national total since the first of the year to 55.The CDC statement noted that the confirmation marks the nation's first H5 infection in a child, and it reiterated much of what the California Department of Public Health (CDPH) said in its initial announcement of the case on November 19.The child's infection was detected through California's flu surveillance system, and the level of viral material in the specimen was low. Follow-up tests several days later were negative for avian flu but were positive for other common respiratory viruses.The child is recovering, and all family members tested negative for H5 avian influenza but positive for the same common respiratory virus as the child. Contact tracing continues, and there is no sign of human-to-human spread.Investigation into the child's exposure to H5N1 is still under way, the CDC said.In other H5N1 developments, the Hawaii State Department of Health yesterday said tests in people who had contact with an infected flocks are all negative, even in those who had high-risk exposure.Of 54 people who had potential exposure, 34 were offered free testing due to unprotected exposure to the sick ducks and geese that were part of a backyard flock. Of those, 29 agreed to testing, including 13 who had at least one respiratory virus symptom. All of the people who had the highest risk—such as those who had prolonged contact with visibly sick birds—agreed to testing. Two of the people who had symptoms were positive for common cold viruses.Investigations are still under way in people who were exposed to birds from the flock at a pet fair. At least four have been tested, and all were negative. Genetic sequencing from the virus from the sick birds found the A3 genotype, which was first identified in wild birds in Alaska in 2022. The genotype is different from the one infecting US dairy cattle and the one that infected a teen who is critically in British Columbia. "It is unknown whether genotype A3 is likely to infect humans or other mammals," officials said.On the animal health side, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service confirmed four more outbreaks in dairy cattle, all from California. The latest confirmations push California’s total to 402 and the national total to 616 from 15 states.The group reported no new confirmation in poultry flocks. California is grappling with several outbreaks on commercial poultry farms, as states in the West continue to report sporadic outbreaks. Also, a handful of Midwestern states have reported new outbreak activity this week.
Hawaii reports first avian flu outbreak in poultry as surge continues on California farms - In the wake of a recent H5 avian flu detection in wastewateron Oahu, the Hawaii Department of Agriculture (HDOA) on November 15 announced that state and federal tests have confirmed the virus in ducks and geese that died on a backyard farm.The outbreak is Hawaii's first and appears to be part of a surge in poultry outbreaks in US states that are along the Pacific flyway, where wild birds are migrating south. Hawaii's outbreak also prompted an alert from the state's health department about potential exposure at a pet fair that included birds from the affected flock.Hawaii is the 49th state to report an H5N1 outbreak in poultry since the virus first turned up in US poultry in early 2022. Louisiana is now the only state that hasn't reported the virus in poultry. In a statement, the HDOA said the backyard flock is located in central Oahu and is in an area served by the watershed where H5 in wastewater was recently reported. It added that the virus matches the strain that has infected dairy cows and domestic poultry on the US mainland.Officials said they received a report of at least 10 dead birds on the property on November 12. The flock included ducks, geese, and a zebra dove. So far, it's not clear how the virus arrived in Hawaii. Though strict measures are in place to prevent sick birds from entering Hawaii by air or ships, the state's location on the Pacific flyway puts it on the path of birds migrating from the continental United States.In a related development, the Hawaii Department of Health yesterday warned of potential exposure at a November 2 pet fair in Mililani, where some of the birds from the infected flock were present.Officials said, however, that the first signs of infection in the flock didn't occur until several days after the fair. Though the likelihood of H5N1 spread to humans is low, officials recommended that people who attended the fair and touched a duck or goose monitor for and report flulike symptoms or conjunctivitis.They also urged owners of other animals who had contact with a duck or goose at the fair to contact veterinarians if the animals show any illness symptoms.Meanwhile, California's surge in outbreak in both dairy cattle and poultry continues, with APHIS todayconfirming 41 more outbreaks on dairy farms. Outbreaks centered in the Central Valley have now hit 335 farms since late August. California is the nation's top dairy producer, and outbreaks have now affected more than one fourth of the state's farms. California's latest outbreak boosts the national total in dairy herds to 549 in 15 states.Also, APHIS confirmed the virus in several more California commercial poultry farms, including turkey and broiler facilities in Fresno, Kings, and San Joaquin counties.Elsewhere, Arizona reported its first avian flu outbreak in commercial poultry, which involves a commercial layer farm in Pinal County. The state had reported two earlier outbreaks in backyard birds, with the last one reported in November 2022, according to APHIS records. The Arizona Department of Agriculture said the birds first started showing symptoms on November 11. Officials said eggs produced after illnesses were noted did not enter the food supply.
Avian flu infects more poultry in 4 US states - Four states reported more H5N1 avian flu outbreaks in poultry, including a second detection in Hawaiian backyard poultry and outbreaks on commercial farms in California, according to the latest confirmations from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). Hawaii reported its first outbreak on November 17 in a backyard flock of 70 birds in Honolulu County on Oahu island. According to APHIS, the virus also turned up at another backyard facility in the same county, which involves a location that has nine birds.California, which has been hit hard by outbreaks in dairy cows and poultry, has three more outbreaks from three different counties. They include a commercial broiler farm in Fresno County that has 172,800 birds, a turkey farm in Merced County that has 38,200 birds, and a turkey farm in Stanislaus County that has 22,400 birds.Two states—Minnesota and Washington—reported outbreaks in backyard poultry. Minnesota reported two events in Martin County, its first since July. Taken together, the sites have 70 birds. Washington’s outbreak occurred at a location in Whatcom County that has 40 birds. In other virus developments, APHIS reported more than 100 H5N1 detections in wild birds, most with October and November sample collection dates. Most of the detections were from western states and many were raptors found dead or hunter-harvested waterfowl. Some of the detections were from Midwestern states including Illinois, Kansas, and Minnesota, and the APHIS list also included captive black vultures from Florida’s Brevard County.The group also included some agency harvested wild birds in California counties experiencing outbreaks in dairy cattle.Regarding outbreaks in dairy cattle, APHIS confirmed one more detection from a California farm, raising the state’s total to 336 and the national total to 550.Elsewhere, the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture today announced mandatory bulk milk tank testing as an added measure to prevent the spread of avian flu in dairy cattle. So far, Pennsylvania has not reported any outbreaks on dairy farms. The order goes into effect today and will be done at no cost to farmers. Pennsylvania is now one of four states that haven’t been affected by outbreaks to order bulk milk tank testing. The others are Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Massachusetts.
Avian flu confirmed at 62 more California dairy farms as virus strikes more poultry -The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) today confirmed 62 more avian flu outbreaks in dairy cattle, all involving California herds. The latest detections lift the state’s total since the end of August to 398 and the national total to 612.California is the nation’s largest dairy producer, and outbreaks in the Central Valley have now affected nearly one-third of the state’s estimated 1,300 herds.In poultry outbreaks developments, APHIS today also confirmed more poultry outbreaks from four states, including two more reappearances in Midwestern states.The largest of the latest outbreaks includes a large layer farm in California’s Kern County that has more than 1 million birds, as well as a duck meat producer in the state’s Marin County.Over the past several weeks, most the outbreaks in poultry have occurred in western states along with Pacific flyway, affecting several large commercial farms in California and reaching all the way to backyard birds in Hawaii. However, over the past few days, detections have been confirmed in a few Midwestern states.Today’s confirmations include a commercial farm in Illinois, which involves a facility in Henry County that has 5,600 birds. Henry County is in northwestern Illinois. The latest outbreak marks the state’s first since February 2023. Also, APHIS confirmed the virus in a backyard flock of 20 birds in South Dakota, its first since March. The location is Lake County, which is the southwestern part of the state. Elsewhere, APHIS confirmed the virus in a backyard flock in Alaska located in Matanuska Susitna Borough, which is part of the Anchorage metro area. The outbreak is the first involving Alaskan poultry since November 2023, though the virus was recently reported in a few samples from raptors and waterfowl.
CWD spreads to another Wyoming elk hunt area --The Wyoming Game and Fish Department says a hunter-harvested female elk has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD) for the first time in Elk Hunt Area 23. Located mainly in the Casper region in the east-central part of the state, Elk Hunt Area 23 shares its border with Elk Hunt Areas 48, 16, and 19, which have all reported cases of the fatal neurodegenerative disease."In 2023, Game and Fish personnel tested more than 5,000 CWD lymph node samples from deer and elk—primarily submitted by hunters—and continue to evaluate new recommendations for trying to manage the disease," a news release yesterday said.CWD, which is caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, affects cervids such as elk, deer, moose, and reindeer. It has been found in 35 US states, five Canadian provinces, and in Norway, Finland, Sweden, and South Korea.While CWD hasn't been identified in people, the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend against eating meat from infected or sick animals and advise taking care when handling the carcasses.
Louisiana, Washington state announce CWD detections in white-tailed deer -Louisiana and Washington have reported new chronic wasting disease (CWD) detections in white-tailed deer, the former in a captive animal found dead in Jefferson Davis Parish and the latter in a hunter-harvested deer in Spokane County.The Louisiana detection, the first case of the fatal neurodegenerative disease in Jefferson Davis Parish in the southwest part of the state, was confirmed on November 7, the Louisiana Department of Agriculture & Forestry said in a press release late last week. The farm participates in the US Department of Agriculture's CWD Voluntary Herd Certification Program. The farm has been quarantined and a 25-mile surveillance zone activated. "The Office of the State Veterinarian has established a surveillance zone for herds near the affected deer farm and is diligently reviewing recent movement records," the release said. "All deer farms in the surveillance zone are under restricted movement until further notice." The Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries has been performing statewide CWD surveillance of wild deer since 2002. Nineteen confirmed cases have been reported in Tensas, Concordia, East Carroll, Madison, and Franklin parishes in the northeast and east-central parts of the state. Also late last week, the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife (WDFW) announced the state's second case of CWD in a buck harvested during the opening weekend of the modern firearms hunting season in Spokane County. The identification occurred about 5 miles north of the Fairwood area of the county, where the first CWD case was confirmed in August. Since then, the state has changed rules that affect hunters, game salvagers, and people who feed wildlife to slow the spread of the disease, the WDFW news release said. CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease in cervids such as deer, elk, and moose caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions. The disease can spread among cervids and through environmental contamination. While CWD isn't known to infect people, the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend against eating meat from infected animals.
Third CWD case confirmed in British Columbia -- British Columbia government officials yesterday announced the identification of another chronic wasting disease (CWD) case in the province, for a total of three detections since February 2024.The white-tailed deer in the Kootenay region, in the southeastern region of the province, was harvested in October within 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) of a CWD-positive white-tailed doe killed in a vehicle collision in Cranbrook in February 2024. The other case of the fatal neurodegenerative disease was detected in a hunter-harvested male mule deer in the same area that same month. "All cases to date have been found within a chronic wasting disease management zone that includes 14 wildlife management units in the Kootenay region," the press release said. "Measures are in place within this zone to continue to collect data to help mitigate the risk of disease spread." Caused by misfolded infectious proteins called prions, CWD affects cervids such as deer, elk, moose, and reindeer. Prions are extremely resilient and can persist in the environment for years. CWD can spread from animal to animal and through environmental contamination. The disease isn't known to infect humans, but officials recommend not eating meat from a sick animal (cooking temperatures cannot kill prions) and using precautions when handling the carcasses.
Climate change may drive migratory birds farther north, introducing exotic tick-borne diseases - Rising temperatures fueled by climate change may allow pathogen-infected ticks attached to birds migrating from tropical to cooler locations to survive at their destinations, researchers reported this week in Frontiers in Cellular and Infection Microbiology. The University of Southern Mississippi–led study team used the mitochondrial 12S rRNA gene to assess the prevalence of exotic tick parasites on 14,929 migratory songbirds at six stopover sites along the northern Gulf of Mexico in autumn and seven sites in spring. The birds (residents and short-distance and long-distance migrants) were netted, sampled, and banded from up to four sites in southwest Louisiana and three in southern Alabama. The team used forceps to remove the mostly immature ticks from Central and South America and store them in ethanol. So far, exotic, neotropical, bird-parasitizing ticks have had limited success in establishing themselves in North America, the researchers noted. "Due to the energetic cost of migration, most migratory birds must stop en route at stopover sites to rest and restore their energy reserves in unfamiliar habitats," they wrote. "Birds may pick up new or drop off existing ectoparasites, such as ticks, during stopover, acting as a long-distance dispersal mechanism for ectoparasites and their pathogens." The most common parasitized birds were the hooded warblers (31%) and swamp sparrows (16%). Overall, tick parasitism among the 14,929 birds was low. The researchers documented 359 bird-parasitizing ticks belonging to the genera Amblyomma, Haemaphysalis, and Ixodes attached to 163 birds of 28 songbird species. The most common tick genera and species were Amblyomma and Amblyomma longirostre, respectively, but no pathogenic (disease-causing) microbes were seen in Ixodes ticks. RNA sequencing revealed microbes in all ticks, most of which were seen in late spring, especially in April, when over 65% of all ticks were obtained. The most abundant phylum was Proteobacteria, microbial profiles showed. The most common pathogens were Rickettsia and endosymbiont Francisella, Candidatus Midichloria, and Spiroplasma. Permutation multivariate analysis of variance (ANOVA) demonstrated that the relative abundance of Francisella and Rickettsia drives microbial patterns among tick genera. The percentage of positive correlations in microbe-microbe interactions was higher among microbial community members. Francisella help ticks function, and Rickettsia may also help ticks survive the significant energy expenditure of migration, the authors said. They added that some Rickettsia can cause human diseases such as spotted fevers, but it's unknown whether invasive tick species are likely to spread these diseases to people. Mapping the distributions of tick-carrying bird species during spring migrations highlighted geographic hot spots where songbirds could shed pathogen-carrying ticks on the way to or upon arrival at their breeding grounds, the latter showing average dispersal distances of 421 to 5,003 kilometers (262 to 3,109 miles). Short-distance migrants carried more ticks than their long-distance counterparts. Ticks may establish in new animal hosts The researchers said the findings provide insight into the mechanisms of tick dispersal, underscoring the crucial nature of understanding bird migration patterns in predicting the introduction and establishment of potentially invasive ticks. In a Frontiers news release, coauthor Lorenza Beati, MD, PhD, of Georgia Southern University, said, "For some migrating exotic ticks, global warming may create conditions at their northern destination that are similar to their usual range. If warmer climatic conditions are combined with the presence of suitable vertebrate hosts for all tick life stages, the chance of establishment is going to increase." Lead author Shahid Karim, PhD, of the University of Southern Mississippi, said, "Not only could these ticks bring new pathogens, but if they manage to establish themselves in the US, they could become additional vectors of pathogens already present in this country or maintain pathogens in wildlife reservoirs which can then become sources of infection."
Red tide detected in popular Manatee County beaches, health officials report — Thinking of heading to the beach this weekend? Well, you may want to check this out.The Florida Department of Health in Manatee County announced Friday that it had detected medium levels of red tide on multiple beaches in the area. Water samples showing signs of red tide were placed on the following beaches:
- Bradenton Beach
- Coquina Beach South Boat Ramp
- Rod and Reel Pier on Anna Maria Island
Health officials said anyone in or around these areas should exercise caution. It's important to look for informational signs posted at most public beaches and check the current water quality. You can do so by visiting Protecting Florida Together. Health officials advise people not to swim in or around red tide, wash their skin or clothing with soap and fresh water if they've come in contact with it, not to eat any shellfish or dead fish from these locations, and keep pets away from the water. People who live near these areas are encouraged to close their windows and run the air conditioner. To learn more about how to protect yourself from red tide, click here.
Historically bad year for dolphin strandings on Cape Cod has scientists looking for answers An unprecedentedly bad year for beached dolphins on Cape Cod might have to do with warming waters changing the availability of the animals' food, said scientists hoping to curb the strandings.Cape Cod, the Massachusetts peninsula beloved by beach tourists and seafood lovers, has a long history of marine mammal strandings. That is partially because of dramatic changes in the tide that sometimes trap wayward dolphins if they swim too close to shore.But this year is different. The International Fund for Animal Welfare, which responds to marine mammal strandings, said Thursday it has responded to 342 live, stranded dolphins this year, and that is five times more than its annual average of 67.An already bad year got worse earlier this month when the organization was inundated with calls about beached dolphins. More than 50 of the animals were stranded on multiple beaches and waterways in the span of a week, the organization said.The massive number of strandings has stretched the group's resources and supplies, said Brian Sharp, marine mammal rescue team lead for the organization and a biologist by training. Scientists are still trying to determine what is causing the strandings, but they have noticed that the small fish the dolphins eat in high numbers have been swimming close to the shore, he said.The dolphins seem to be following that food source and getting themselves in jeopardy, Sharp said."Any effect of climate change on ocean temperature, salinity, is going to affect the prey resource of the fish," he said. "That as part of the food web is going to have kind of that ripple, that cascade effect throughout the food web, which eventually leads to marine mammals."Cape Cod is located near important dolphin feeding grounds, and the peninsula is popular with summer whale watchers because of its diversity of species. Most of the stranded dolphins have been common dolphins, Atlantic white-sided dolphins, Risso's dolphins and bottlenose dolphins, Sharp said.Of the 342 stranded dolphins, 293 were able to be released back into the wild, Sharp said. More than 90 additional dolphins were found dead upon stranding, he said.This year's strandings included a mass stranding event of more than 100 dolphins in the summer that rescuers said was the largest event of its kind in recorded U.S. history. The Cape can be difficult for the animals to navigate because of its sloping sandbars, hooked shape and sticky mudflats.
Fewer than 7% of global hotspots for whale-ship collisions have protection measures in place Fewer than 7% of global hotspots for whale-ship collisions have protection measures in place, researchers reportThousands of whales are injured or killed each year after being struck by ships, particularly the large container vessels that ferry 80% of the world's traded goods across the oceans. Collisions are the leading cause of death worldwide for large whale species. Yet global data on ship strikes of whales are hard to come by—impeding efforts to protect vulnerable whale species.A new study led by the University of Washington has for the first time quantified the risk for whale-ship collisions worldwide for four geographically widespread ocean giants that are threatened by shipping: blue, fin, humpback and sperm whales.In the paper, published in Science, researchers report that global shipping traffic overlaps with about 92% of these whale species' ranges."This translates to ships traveling thousands of times the distance to the moon and back within these species's ranges each and every year, and this problem is only projected to increase as global trade grows in the coming decades," said senior author Briana Abrahms, a UW assistant professor of biology and researcher with the Center for Ecosystem Sentinels."Whale-ship collisions have typically only been studied at a local or regional level—like off the east and west coasts of the continental U.S., and patterns of risk remain unknown for large areas," said lead author Anna Nisi, a UW postdoctoral researcher in the Center for Ecosystem Sentinels."Our study is an attempt to fill those knowledge gaps and understand the risk of ship strikes on a global level. It's important to understand where these collisions are likely to occur because there are some really simple interventions that can substantially reduce collision risk."The team found that only about 7% of areas at highest risk for whale-ship collisions have any measures in place to protect whales from this threat. These measures include speed reductions, both mandatory and voluntary, for ships crossing waters that overlap with whale migration or feeding areas."Trade-offs between industrial and conservation outcomes are not usually this optimal," said co-author Heather Welch, a research scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of California, Santa Cruz. "Oftentimes, industrial activities must be greatly limited to achieve conservation goals, or vice versa. In this case, there is a potentially large conservation benefit to whales for not much cost to the shipping industry."
Plastic reduces krill's ability to remove carbon in the deep ocean, marine ecologists find -New research shows that increased levels of plastic pollution in the Southern Ocean could reduce the ability of Antarctic krill, a tiny shrimp-like crustacean, to help take CO2 from the atmosphere. The results are published this month in the journal Marine Pollution Bulletin. Antarctic krill feed on phytoplankton, tiny plants that live in the ocean and absorb CO2 and remove carbon when their poo sinks to the deep ocean. Researchers from British Antarctic Survey (BAS) found that the presence of nanoplastics in the seawater (plastic particles more than 100 times smaller than the width of a human hair) could reduce the ability of the krill poo to remove and store CO2 in the deep ocean by 27%. Krill equate to roughly the same biomass as all the humans on planet Earth and play a vital role in locking away "blue carbon" in the Southern Ocean. Understanding the impact of human activities on carbon removed by the ocean is critical for informing international action on climate change. Antarctic krill form large swarms which can reach over a kilometer in length, driving a huge "rain" of carbon-rich krill feces, which sink rapidly to the deep ocean. The poo locks away carbon from the atmosphere for long periods of time. Another recent study by researchers from Imperial College London and BAS demonstrated the key role that Antarctic krill play in carbon cycling. They estimated that Antarctic krill feces locks away at least 20 million metric tons of carbon into the deep ocean annually,—storing similar amounts of carbon to key blue carbon habitats such as mangroves, saltmarshes and seagrasses. Lead author Clara Manno, a marine ecologist at BAS says, "Krill are an important part of the Southern Ocean food web and are the diet of penguins, seals and whales. We had already found plastic pollution in Antarctic krill from the Southern Ocean. "But for the first time, we have evidence that plastic pollution could be reducing the ability of krill feces to transport and store carbon in the deep ocean by over a quarter—this is huge! Now we can see that plastic pollution is disrupting the natural role that the ocean, and climate heroes like krill, play in balancing the global carbon cycle." Co-author Emily Rowlands, who's a marine ecologist at BAS, says, "Nanoplastics are invisible to the human eye but they can have a big impact in the environment. Understanding that it's not just the animals themselves being impacted but their positive role in mitigating climate change really highlights the need for global action on the issue of plastic pollution." Understanding how human disturbances impact carbon being locked away by krill is particularly relevant in the Antarctic regions where krill populations are exposed to harmful human-induced effects from multiple areas, such as ocean warming, ocean acidification and the impacts of fisheries.
Senate approves bill to reauthorize coastal program - The Senate on Thursday approved legislation to reup a Fish and Wildlife Service coastal program.The chamber passed by voice vote H.R. 2950, the “Coastal Habitat Conservation Act” from Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), which would reauthorize the program at $16.9 million annually through fiscal 2028. The House approved the bill, also by voice vote, in September. “This collaborative bill is a bipartisan solution to preserve the health and resilience of coastal habitats, benefiting the wildlife, communities and economies that depend on them,” Huffman said when releasing the proposal last year.Earlier this week, the Senate passed H.R. 5490, the “Bolstering Ecosystems Against Coastal Harm (BEACH) Act” from Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.), to approve new expanded maps under the Coastal Barrier Resources Act.
Study finds plastic bag bans can boost such bags' usage - Policies aimed at curbing the use of single-use plastic bags have sometimes accomplished the opposite of their intentions, a new study has found.When two Texas cities prohibited stores from giving away plastic grocery bags for free, the sale of such bags surged in response, according to the study, published in the Journal of Marketing Research.The longer a policy was in place, the longer the behaviors spurred by those regulatory prohibitions persisted, the researchers found.“We were hoping for positive spillover effects, like customers will be more environmentally conscious and consume less one-time use plastic or paper products,” said Hai Che, an associate professor at University of California Riverside’s School of Business, in a statement.“But that’s not what happened in the data,” Che continued. “People wound up buying more plastic.”To draw their conclusions, the researchers first quantified plastic bag sales by analyzing barcode scanner data on consumer purchases.The Dallas City Council imposed a 5-cent fee for single-use bag purchases for five months in 2015, before manufacturer lawsuits came rolling in and the city revoked the policy, the authors noted. Once free bags became available again, sales initially plunged but ultimately returned to pre-policy levels in 13 months, according to the study.The Austin City Council, on the other hand, had a single-use bag ban in place for five years, rather than five months: from 2013 until 2018, when the Texas Supreme Court eliminated such prohibitions statewide.Following the repeal, plastic bag purchases fell gradually but failed to return to pre-policy levels even after 18 months — the conclusion of the study’s timeframe. The authors found that the carryover effect remained 38.6 percent above the baseline at that point.The researchers compared these negative spillover effects to a previous study in California, which found that a nominal plastic bag fee led many consumers to grab plastic produce bags to use for other items.Although bans on the free distribution of plastic bags may encourage some customers to increase their use of reusable bags, pack more groceries into a single-use bag or go bag-free altogether, others may resort to purchasing trash bags instead, the authors noted.Looking at the two Texas cities specifically, the researchers conducted a “break-even analysis” to explore whether plastic bag policies were able to decrease plastic waste overall, alongside the negative effects.To offset the extra bags purchased due to these policies, consumers would need to use one less bag for every seven grocery trips in Dallas and for every five trips in Austin, according to the study.“Even a slight reduction in grocery bag use can offset the increased plastic consumption from trash bags,” Che said, suggesting there may be some benefit to these policies even when they’re repealed.
Study finds 'safe' BPA alternatives may still pose health risks -- Bisphenols are a group of endocrine-disrupting chemicals used worldwide for the production of plastics and resins. Bisphenol A (BPA), the main bisphenol, exhibits many unwanted effects. BPA has, currently, been replaced with bisphenol F (BPF) and bisphenol S (BPS) in many applications in the hope that these molecules have a lesser effect on metabolism than BPA. After conducting molecular dynamics simulations to compare the localization and interactions of BPA, BPF, and BPS in a complex membrane, the ata support that both BPF and BPS, behaving in the same way in the membrane as BPA and with the same capacity to accumulate in the biological membrane, are not safe alternatives to BPA. A study by Professor José Villalaín of the Miguel Hernández University of Elche (UMH) in Spain, published in the Journal of Xenobiotics, reveals that bisphenol analogs BPF and BPS, used as safer alternatives to BPA, may still pose health risks. Using high-resolution computer simulations, the research shows these compounds accumulate in complex biological membranes, potentially disrupting endocrine function and causing diseases like obesity and diabetes. While European health authorities have warned about the adverse effects of bisphenol A in plastic production and have imposed legal restrictions on its use, similar compounds used in the plastics industry are suspected of causing the same health issues. This new study adds to the growing body of scientific evidence pointing to the dangers of these compounds.Using computer simulations, the researcher from the UMH's Institute of Research, Development, and Innovation in Healthcare Biotechnology analyzed the interactions between human cell membranes and the molecules of bisphenol A (BPA), bisphenol F (BPF), and bisphenol S (BPS). BPF and BPS are being marketed as safer alternatives.The results show that these compounds are so similar to bisphenol A that they accumulate in cells and affect membrane lipids, making them potentially harmful and capable of causing diseases. Some synthetic and natural chemical compounds can interfere with the normal functioning of the endocrine system, which regulates many vital functions. These substances are known as "endocrine disruptors." These chemicals are present in everyday items, including plastic bottles, food containers, metal coatings, detergents, flame retardants, foods, toys, cosmetics, and pesticides. Some, such as DDT, have already been banned. Others are under ongoing review, with increasing regulation, as is the case with bisphenol A, which has been identified by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) as a "health concern for consumers across all age groups." Bisphenols are endocrine disruptors used globally in the production of plastics and resins. Bisphenol A, the most common bisphenol, has been linked to numerous adverse health effects in both humans and animals. As a result, BPA is being replaced with Bisphenol F (BPF) and Bisphenol S (BPS) in the hope that these compounds will have less of an impact on metabolism. However, studies conducted over the past decade have found elevated concentrations of these BPA analogs in urine samples from European adults. At the same time, BPS and BPF have been associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other health problems. The scientific community is still investigating the full extent of the risks posed by these supposedly "safe" bisphenols.
American soil losing more nutrients for crops due to heavier rainstorms, study shows -- Phosphorus, a nutrient in soil essential for sustaining most forms of life, is increasingly disappearing from land as it is washed into waterways throughout the United States, according to a new study led by researchers at Penn State. The study, published Nov. 18 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analyzed data from 430 rivers across the U.S. and found that phosphorus loss from agricultural lands has increased over the past four decades, despite efforts to reduce it. This loss of phosphorus can potentially lead to decreased crop yields, which could drive up the cost of food, the researchers explained. "We've seen from recent weather events that water quantity, the amount of water that storms and waterways carry, can lead to dangerous flooding and mudslides," said Li Li, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Penn State and corresponding author on the study. "What we wanted to understand is what happens to the land when these storms pull the subsurface of the soil into rivers and streams. What we found is an alarming loss of this finite element that lets soil sustain life."Phosphorus plays an essential role in various biological processes, like creating DNA structure and facilitating the energy transfer between cells, Li explained. But unlike nitrogen, another critical soil nutrient, phosphorus is a non-renewable resource with limited geological deposits, meaning that once it moves from land to water, it can't get back into the land."This is a problem for many reasons," Li said."When it's lost from farmland, it can reduce crop yields, potentially leading to higher food prices. Then, when phosphorus enters our waterways, it can cause harmful algal blooms that can make water unsafe for swimming and fishing—and can even reduce oxygen levels in water and kill fish and other aquatic life. It also makes it more expensive to treat drinking water, which means higher water bills for all of us."The study used a sophisticated deep learning model to analyze four decades of data, from 1980 to 2019, from 430 rivers throughout the contiguous United States.It revealed that while 60% of the rivers studied showed declining levels of phosphorus, the overall amount of phosphorus flowing into rivers has increased. Agricultural areas are the biggest contributors to the problem, with phosphorus levels increasing in most rivers near agricultural areas, even as they decline in rivers near urban areas."This suggests that efforts to control phosphorus pollution from sources like agricultural runoff are not as effective as we thought," Li said.
Severe air pollution grips Delhi with AQI at 373, second worst worldwide – video- The air quality index (AQI) of 373 in R.K. Puram, Delhi, showed high pollution levels at 14:35 LT (09:05 UTC) on Saturday, November 16, 2024. The levels of PM2.5 and PM10 were 318 and 258, indicating serious health risks and placing Delhi as the second most polluted city in the world, following Lahore, Pakistan. Air quality remains a pressing concern with the AQI recording 396 in New Delhi, India on November 15. It has been categorized as “very poor,” with a slight improvement from November 14 when AQI reached 424 which fell in the “severe” category. These measurements provided by the Delhi Pollution Control Committee and the Central Pollution Control Board follow the US EPA AQI standard. The weather in the area, with a temperature of 32 °C (89.6 °F), humidity of 42%, light winds at 1 km/h (0.6 mph), and a pressure of 980 hPa, is causing the pollutants to stay in the air, making the air quality worse. Flight operations at Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA), have been severely impacted with 88% of departures and 54% of arrivals delayed on November 14. Hospitals are reporting a rise in respiratory illnesses, mainly among children, as the toxic smog causes serious health issues. In response to the escalating pollution crisis, the government of New Delhi has enforced strict measures under Stage III of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP). These include banning private BS-III petrol and BS-IV diesel vehicles and restricting the entry of inter-state buses that are not electric or CNG-powered. Atishi Marlena, Chief Minister of Delhi, announced new working hours for government offices to help reduce traffic and pollution. Municipal offices will be open from 08:30 to 17:00 LT, central government offices from 09:00 to 17:30 LT, and Delhi government offices from 10:00 AM to 18:30 LT. To make public transport more accessible, the Delhi Transport Corporation (DTC) has added 106 more shuttle bus services, running over 1 800 trips daily. The Delhi Metro has also increased daily trips by 60 to help more commuters. Non-essential construction activities remain banned and residents have been asked to avoid using coal and wood for heating. Road cleaning machines and dust control measures have been put to reduce air pollution. Schools for students up to Grade V have been moved to online classes because of health risks, and more restrictions may be added if pollution continues. Stubble burning after rice harvest in neighboring states of Haryana, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Rajasthan, and Punjab continues to be a major contributor to air pollution in the National Capital Region (NCR), accounting for 38% of Delhi’s pollution on November 14, according to data from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) predicted that the air quality will remain in the “very poor” category for the next 6 days due to calm winds, high humidity, and a drop in temperature. Visibility in the capital has dropped to as low as 400 m (1 300 feet) in Safdarjung and 500 m (1 640 feet) in Palam. The smog has not only affected daily life in Delhi but has also made famous sites like the Taj Mahal and the Golden Temple in Amritsar hard to see clearly.
Cloud seeding proposed as a solution for the world’s most polluted city, New Delhi, India - New Delhi reached an air quality index (AQI) of 495 at 10:54 LT (05:24 UTC) on Friday, November 22, 2024, the highest recorded so far this season. Earlier this week, Delhi’s AQI reached 493, placing it among the most polluted cities globally on November 18, 2024. PM 2.5 levels hit 401.1 µg/m3 exceeding the safe limits of the World Health Organisation (WHO) over 27 times.
- Delhi ranked as the world’s most polluted city on November 22 with an AQI of 495, while neighboring Loni recorded 491.
- Toxic air has caused respiratory illnesses and flight delays, prompting emergency actions under Stage IV of the Graded Response Action Plan (GRAP).
- Developed in 1946, cloud seeding was controversially weaponized during the Vietnam War, leading to a UN ban on hostile environmental modification.
- Efforts like the National Clean Air Programme (2019) have seen limited success due to rapid economic and population growth.
Delhi fell into the “hazardous” category on November 22, followed by Lahore, Pakistan, with an AQI of 394, according to IQAir. Delhi’s neighboring region of Loni, Ghaziabad, recorded an AQI of 491, with PM2.5 levels reaching alarming figures, as reported by the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB). Areas like Anand Vihar and Mundka had AQIs over 400, falling into the severe range and posing serious health risks. Although the city saw some relief from the “severe plus” category earlier in the week, experts warn that pollution episodes throughout the winter months are likely to continue. The Delhi government has shown renewed interest in cloud seeding as a temporary solution to alleviate hazardous air quality during winter. Gopal Rai, Member of Delhi Legislative Assembly, appealed to the Central Government to approve and facilitate implementing cloud seeding operations on November 20. The proposal comes after discussions with the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur. IIT Kanpur proposed a project costing up to Rs. 1 00 000 per km2 (Rs. 2 59 000 per mi2) to create artificial rain over the city. The operations depend on favorable atmospheric conditions, including sufficient moisture in the air. Sorry, the video player failed to load.(Error Code: 101102) What is cloud seeding? Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique that disperses substances like silver iodide, potassium iodide, or dry ice into the atmosphere. These particles act as nuclei for water droplets to form facilitating precipitation in the form of rain or snow. The method can be executed using aircraft, rockets, or ground-based generators. Cloud seeding aims to “wash away” airborne pollutants when applied to combat air pollution including particulate matter from the atmosphere. Effectiveness and challenges of cloud seeding Cloud seeding has been used worldwide to address issues like drought and smog, but its effectiveness in reducing air pollution is still debated. While studies show it can slightly increase rainfall, its impact on long-term air quality is limited. Cloud seeding depends on specific weather conditions, like moisture-filled clouds, which are usually common during Delhi’s cold and dry winters and raises environmental concerns due to the use of chemicals like silver iodide. While studies suggest minimal immediate ecological risks, the long-term effects remain unclear and scientists stress that cloud seeding should not distract from sustainable solutions like stricter emissions regulations and better public transport systems to control pollution.
Drought fueled wildfires create dangerous conditions in New York and New Jersey -- Extreme drought conditions across the Northeastern United States, ongoing for several weeks, have fueled in an inordinate number of dangerous wildfires throughout the region. The Jennings Creek Wildfire along the New York/New Jersey border caused the evacuation of about 170 homes on Sunday in Warwick, New York. The fire has been raging since Tuesday and burnt over 4,000 acres. The New York state Air National Guard has dropped 22,000 gallons of water on the fire and extinguished 90 percent of it. A further 35 homes were evacuated in nearby Greenwood Lake as well as surrounding recreational areas. One young park aide was killed after he was struck by a falling tree while he was battling flames in Greenwood Lake. A wildfire broke out last week in New York City in Prospect Park in Brooklyn, one of the famous parks designed, like Central Park in Manhattan, by Frederick Law Olmsted in the 19th Century. 140 firefighters from the Fire Department of New York (FDNY) fought a blaze in Manhattan’s Inwood Park. Fires continue to burn in Sterling State Park, about 40 miles north of the city in Orange County. According the to the FDNY, “Since October 17, there have been 378 brush fires citywide, compared to 174 brush fires over the same period of the previous three years combined.” Adam Douty, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather, was quoted by the media as saying, “An extraordinary high pressure weather system has been lingering for weeks that has crushed the occasional storm systems trying to sweep down from Canada. The dry atmosphere and dry ground combine to stifle weak weather systems trying to break through.” He noted that some of the worst-hit areas could require 7 inches or more of rain to end the dry spell. While some rain is expected midweek, it is not clear how much. Red flag warnings for wildfires, which indicate, “the imminent danger of severe fire weather with a relatively high probability of occurrence,” according to the National Weather Service, have been issued from Virginia to Maine, indicating the high likelihood of additional wildfire outbreaks in the coming days and maybe weeks. These warnings are issued by the National Weather Service when a combination of warm temperatures, humidity of 15 percent or less and wind gusts of 25 mph or more for 3 hours over a 4-hour period are expected to increase the risk of fire danger.
Oklahoma sets new November tornado record, surpassing 1958 high, U.S. - With 23 tornadoes reported in November 2024, Oklahoma has broken its previous November record of 12 tornadoes from 1958. The total number of tornadoes this year now ranks as the third-highest in the state’s history. (Video: Fox Weather) Oklahoma set a new record for the most tornadoes in November, with 23 tornadoes reported during the month. This surpasses the previous record of 12 set in November 1958. The total could still increase, as eight days remain in the month. The total number of tornadoes in Oklahoma for 2024 currently stands at 137, ranking it third for the most tornadoes recorded in a single year. The highest record is in 2019, with 149 tornadoes, followed by 1999 with 145 tornadoes. Oklahoma’s peak tornado season is spring, with a secondary surge typically occurring in the fall, between October and November. However, in 2024, only three tornadoes were reported between September and October. While November tornado outbreaks are not unprecedented, most tornadoes in this event occurred during a three-day stretch between November 2 and 4. This outbreak is attributed to a low-pressure system that funneled warm, moist air into the region while cold air lingered above, creating ideal conditions for tornadoes.
Tropical Storm “Sara” floods Honduras, makes landfall over Belize - (2 videos) Tropical Storm “Sara” has drenched northern Honduras with more than 500 mm (19.7 inches) of rainfall since landfall on Thursday, November 14, 2024. This has led to significant flooding and mudslides and isolated entire communities. Sara made landfall over Belize on Sunday, November 17, with maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h (40 mph). Rainfall totals of over 1 000 mm (39.3 inches) are forecast for some regions in the coming week due to the storm. (Satellite image of Tropical Storm "Sara" at 14:30 UTC on November 17, 2024.)
- Sara stalled over Honduras but began moving west-northwestward on Saturday, November 16, intensifying its impact on the region.
- Some areas of northern Honduras experienced over 500 mm (19.7 inches) of rainfall on November 15 and 16, resulting in severe flooding. Intense flooding in San Pedro Sula isolated an entire community after a river crossing was washed away.
- The storm made landfall over Belize around 15:00 UTC on Sunday. Dissipation is forecasted over the southern Yucatán Peninsula by early Monday, November 18.
- Additional rainfall amounts of 25 – 75 mm (1 – 3 inches) are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally reaching up to 1 016 mm (40 inches). The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts remains significant, particularly along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.
- Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce an additional 75 – 125 mm (3 – 5 inches) of rain, with localized storm totals reaching approximately 381 mm (15 inches). These rainfall amounts are expected to lead to flash flooding, potentially significant, and may result in mudslides.
Bomb cyclone set to explode off U.S. West Coast and Canada, bringing hurricane-force winds, heavy rain and mountain snow - A powerful Pacific low pressure system will impact the Northwest United States and Canada with strong winds, heavy rains and heavy mountain snow, starting Tuesday, November 19, 2024. The storm is expected to rapidly intensify as it approaches the coast.
- A low-pressure system over the North Pacific is expected to undergo rapid intensification (bombogenesis) as it approaches the U.S. West Coast on Tuesday, November 19, 2024.
- The system’s central pressure is predicted to drop from 1 004 hPa to 948 hPa within 24 hours, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane.
- Parts of Oregon and Northern California could receive over 300 mm (12 inches) of rain from Tuesday through Thursday, increasing the risk of flash flooding and river overflow.
- The storm’s effects will extend to Canada, with British Columbia experiencing wind gusts of 90 – 100 km/h (56 – 62 mph) and rainfall exceeding 100 mm (3.9 inches) in some areas.
- The storm could lead to power outages, disrupted ferry services, and hazardous travel conditions across affected regions.
A powerful low-pressure system over the North Pacific is forecast to undergo rapid intensification (bomb cyclone) and impact the U.S. West Coast on Tuesday. This mid-latitude cyclone will align with a strong atmospheric river, delivering heavy rainfall to Oregon and California.Bomb cyclone/bombogenesis refers to the rapid intensification of a low-pressure system within 24 hours, characterized by a pressure drop of at least 24 hPa, resulting in cyclone formation. The specific threshold for this process depends on the system’s latitude.The system is expected to have a central pressure of approximately 1 004 hPa on Monday night before intensifying significantly. It will affect the western United States from Tuesday through Thursday, November 23. Forecast models predict a sharp pressure drop of 50 – 60 hPa within 24 hours, with the system reaching a minimum central pressure of 948 hPa by Tuesday evening, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane.“For much of the Northwest, northern Great Basin, and northern Rockies, a cold front pushing across the region today and enhanced onshore flow will allow for unsettled weather to continue ahead of a powerful storm system forecast to develop off the coast of the Northwest on Tuesday,” NWS forecaster Snell noted on November 18.
'Bomb cyclone' hits Northern California, Pacific Northwest (AP) — What was expected to be one of the strongest storms in the northwest U.S. in decades arrived Tuesday evening, knocking out power and downing trees across the region.The Weather Prediction Center issued excessive rainfall risks beginning Tuesday and lasting through Friday as the strongest atmospheric river — a large plume of moisture — that California and the Pacific Northwest has seen this season bears down on the region. The storm system is considered a “ bomb cyclone,” which occurs when a cyclone intensifies rapidly.The areas that could see particularly severe rainfall will likely reach from the south of Portland, Oregon, to the north of the San Francisco area, said Richard Bann, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center.“Be aware of the risk of flash flooding at lower elevations and winter storms at higher elevations. This is going to be an impactful event,” he said.Hurricane-force winds, which are gusts above 75 mph (121 kph), could be felt along the Oregon coast, according to the National Weather Service in Medford, Oregon. And near Seattle, conditions for a “mountain wave” were shaping up, bringing large, low elevation wind gusts that could cause widespread power outages and downed trees, said Larry O’Neill, director of the Oregon Climate Service and Oregon State University associate professor.“This will be pretty strong in terms of the last 10 or 20 years,” he said. “We’ve only seen a couple storms that have really been this strong.” More than 106,000 customers had lost power in Washington as of Tuesday evening, according topoweroutage.us. More than 11,000 had lost power in Oregon and nearly 12,000 in California. The National Weather Service in Seattle said a peak wind speed of 68 mph (109 kph) was recorded at Crystal Mountain near Mount Rainier. A wind speed of 53 mph (82 kph) was also recorded at Ediz Hook, a 3-mile-long (4.8-kilometer) sand spit northwest of Seattle that extends from the northern shore of the Olympic Peninsula at Port Angeles into the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Winds were expected to increase in western Washington throughout the evening, the weather service said. In northern California, flood and high wind watches were in effect, with up to 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain predicted for parts of the San Francisco Bay Area, North Coast and Sacramento Valley.A winter storm watch was issued for the northern Sierra Nevada above 3,500 feet (1,066 meters), where 15 inches (28 centimeters) of snow was possible over two days. Wind gusts could top 75 mph (120 kph) in mountain areas, forecasters said.“Numerous flash floods, hazardous travel, power outages and tree damage can be expected as the storm reaches max intensity” on Wednesday, the Weather Prediction Center warned.“We had about ten inches of water in our garage, had a couple gophers swimming around,” Pimentel told KCRA-TV. Woodland city officials set up two locations where residents could pick up free sandbags. Authorities urged people to stock up on food and charge phones and electronics in case power goes out and roads become unpassable. In southwestern Oregon near the coast, 4 to 7 inches (10 to 18 centimeters) of rain was predicted — with as much as 10 inches (25 centimeters) possible in some areas — through late Thursday night and early Friday morning, Bann said. The National Weather Service issued a flood watch for parts of southwestern Oregon through Friday evening.
'Bomb Cyclone' Blasts Pacific Northwest, Cutting Power To Over 600,000 In Washington - A massive bomb cyclone slammed into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday night, unleashing torrential rains and tropical storm-like wind gusts up to 77 mph for certain areas. More than 600,000 customers across western Washington state are without power on Wednesday morning. FOX Forecast Center said the powerful atmospheric river, coupled with a bomb cyclone, will unleash heavy rains and high winds across the area through Saturday. A look at the bomb cyclone responsible for widespread power outages across the Pacific Northwest this morning. #CAwx #ORwx #WAwxpic.twitter.com/FY6OYOrfhS"The two storms are powering the event, the first of which is a powerful bomb cyclone. The strength of the low has kicked up strong winds up and down the coast, which have caused power outages and some damage," Fox Forecast Center explained.Early Wednesday, data from Poweroutage.US showed that over 600,000 power customers across Washington State had no power. The bulk of the outages were in King County and Snohomish County. FOX Forecast Center noted, "Measurements showed the storm dropped 66 millibars in pressure in 24 hours, eventually becoming a storm with a central pressure of 943 millibars - on par with a major Category 4 hurricane," adding, "It easily qualified for the title of "bomb cyclone," given when a storm strengthens about 24 millibars in 24 hours." Satellite imagery shows the cyclone formation of the storm as it slammed into the Pacific Northwest overnight.
Prolonged atmospheric river triggers High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall alert for Northern California coastline - Two powerful Pacific storm systems and an atmospheric river event will continue impacting the Pacific Northwest and northern California through the end of this week with heavy rain, flooding, strong winds, and higher-elevation mountain snow.Image credit: NOAA/GOES-West, Zoom Earth, The Watchers. Acquired at 10:50 UTC on November 21, 2024
- The storms could deliver over 30% of the normal water year precipitation to parts of Northern California.
- Dangerous flooding, rock slides, and debris flows are expected, prompting a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall to be issued across the northern California coastline today.
- The NWS Winter Storm Severity Index indicates a 40 – 70% probability of “extreme” impacts over the Klamath Mountains.
- This prolonged atmospheric river event poses significant risks of flooding, landslides, and travel disruptions across the Pacific Northwest and Northern California.
- Residents in affected areas should remain vigilant, adhere to local advisories, and prepare for potential evacuation orders in flood-prone zones.
Strong atmospheric river (AR) and remnants of a powerful Pacific cyclone, currently centered off the coast of British Columbia, Canada, are forecast to continue affecting the Pacific Northwest and Northern California until November 23. In addition, a secondary surface cyclone, predicted to form off the Northern California coast on November 21, is expected to amplify impacts in the region, bringing additional widespread heavy precipitation and flooding risks. The atmospheric river made landfall in the Pacific Northwest on November 19 and has gradually shifted south along the coast, according to the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E). Strong winds and heavy rains were recorded across the region, resulting in the deaths of at least 2 people. Across the Pacific Northwest and B.C., Canada, an estimated 1.8 million people were left without power. As of 11:20 UTC on November 21, 334 000 customers in Washington (estimated 835 000 people) and another 17 000 customers in Northern California (estimated 43 000 people) are still without power. In their November 20 Quick Look update, CW3E reported AR Landfall tool shows over 95% confidence in moderate AR conditions (IVT >500 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹) persisting over Northern California until November 22. U.S. National Model (GEFS) model forecasts predict AR 3 – 4 conditions (moderate to strong) from the Bay Area to Southern Oregon, with several ensemble members indicating potential AR 5 (exceptional) conditions in Northern California.
Powerful atmospheric river hits Pacific Northwest, forecast to remain stationary over Northern California through November 22 - A powerful AR4 atmospheric river made landfall in the Pacific Northwest and Northern California on November 19, 2024, bringing prolonged rainfall, heavy snowfall, and significant flooding risks that are expected to worsen through November 22. Meteorologists warn that the storm could bring up to 380 mm (15 inches) of rain to the Coast Ranges and Sierra Nevada, with some areas potentially receiving more. Higher elevations may see as much as 1.8 m (6 feet) of snow, while the Eel River and two other gauges are forecast to rise above flood stage, threatening homes and infrastructure. Residents are urged to monitor updates and prepare for dangerous travel and possible evacuation orders. Satellite image of a rapidly intensifying cyclone off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, U.S. acquired at 22:30 UTC on November 19, 2024. A
- A strong, long-duration atmospheric river will bring excessive rainfall, flash flooding, and very strong winds to southwest Oregon and northwest California through Thursday. A High Risk (level 4 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued.
- The system is expected to remain stationary over Northern California through November 22, bringing prolonged rainfall, snowfall, and hydrological risks.
- Areas such as the Coast Ranges, Klamath Mountains, Southern Cascades, and Northern Sierra Nevada could see up to 380 mm (15 inches) of rainfall over the next five days.
- 30 – 90 cm (12 – 36 inches) of snow is expected in the Southern Cascades and Northern Sierra Nevada, with isolated areas in the Trinity Alps receiving over 1.8 m (72 inches).
- Dangerous travel conditions are predicted in these areas, with the Winter Storm Severity Index showing an 80 – 90% probability of major impacts.
- Residents living in affected areas and visitors are urged to have multiple ways to receive warnings, listen to advice from local officials, and avoid traveling through hazardous weather conditions if possible.
Parts of West Virginia under Blizzard Warning, more snow coming Friday, Saturday - After north central West Virginia got its first widespread snow on Thursday, parts of the state can expect to see another foot of snowfall in the next two days. North central West Virginia saw several school closures Friday, and most counties will see additional snowfall throughout the day on Friday. For the lowlands, very little snow is expected to accumulate on the ground—west of Clarksburg will likely get less than an inch and the snow will change to rain by Friday afternoon, according to the National Weather Service.In the mountains, however, snowy conditions could continue into Saturday.However, Barbour, Preston, Pocahontas, Randolph, Webster, Upshur, Tucker and part of Monongalia counties remain under a severe Winter Storm Warning until 7 a.m. Saturday, and as of Friday morning, eastern Tucker, northwest Pocahontas, southeast Randolph, and western Pendleton counties are under an extreme Blizzard Warning, with a possibility of feet of snow and near impossible travel conditions.High elevations could get up to another foot to two feet of snow on top of the accumulation from Thursday, but that will be confined to the mountains.Areas between the two, like Upshur, Barbour and Taylor counties, could get up to 6 more inches in some areas.
Super Typhoon “Man-Yi” — fourth typhoon to strike Philippines in 10 days makes second landfall over Aurora - The Watchers (2 videos) Super Typhoon “Man-Yi” made landfall in Aurora, Philippines at 15:20 local time (LT) on Sunday, November 17, 2024, after catastrophic damage and heavy rainfall across Luzon. Several Wind Signal Warnings as well as heavy rain warnings have been issued, with some regions expecting over 200 mm (7.87 inches) of rain due to the storm. Satellite image of Typhoon "Man-yi" at 07:20 UTC on November 17, 2024.
- Super Typhoon “Man-Yi” made its second landfall in Dipaculao, Aurora, at 15:20 LT on Sunday and was located over the Nueva Vizcaya region by 20:00 LT.
- Man-Yi is the fourth typhoon to hit the region in the last 10 days and the sixth in a month, marking an unusually high frequency of typhoon landfalls.
- The typhoon brought maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) and gusts of up to 305 km/h (189 mph) during its landfall in Aurora.
- Orange and Yellow heavy rainfall warnings were issued, with Aurora and Quirino forecasted to receive over 200 mm (7.87 inches) of rain, while other regions such as Nueva Ecija and Benguet expected 100 – 200 mm (3.94 – 7.87 inches).
Super Typhoon “Man-Yi” made its second landfall over Dipaculao in Aurora at 15:20 local time (LT) on Sunday and was located over the Nueva Vizcaya region as of 20:00 LT in the Philippines.The system had maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph) at the time of landfall, with gusts of up to 305 km/h (189 mph). As of 20:00 LT, it was moving northwest at 25 km/h (16 mph), with maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h (103 mph) and gusts of 275 km/h (171 mph). Man-Yi is the fourth typhoon to have hit the Philippines in the last 10 days and the sixth in a month, making this an extremely rare event of multiple typhoons making landfall in such a short period.
160 deaths recorded in three weeks as six typhoons batter the Philippines – (3 videos) Four typhoons have struck the Philippines in the last 10 days, with the latest Man-Yi having claimed 8 lives as of Monday, November 18, 2024. At least 160 people have died due to storms in the Philippines in the last 3 weeks, with the last three typhoons having caused combined damages worth roughly ₱469.8 million ($ 8 million). Man-Yi exited the Philippines at approximately 12:00 local time (LT) on Monday as a tropical storm, leaving behind a trail of destruction. It was the sixth typhoon to strike the country in less than a month and the fourth in just 10 days. According to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Typhoon “Man-Yi” affected over 852 000 people across the country. Among those affected, at least 111 658 were displaced, 75 581 were staying in evacuation centers, and 36 077 had taken shelter elsewhere. A total of 8 people lost their lives, seven in a landslide in Nueva Ecija province, and three others were injured on Monday. Additionally, one man died in Camarines Norte province after his motorcycle became entangled in power lines during the storm. The typhoon also damaged crops nationwide, resulting in agricultural losses of approximately ₱855 326 (US$17 367) affecting 52 farmers. Man-Yi was the fourth typhoon to hit the Philippines in just 10 days, marking an extremely rare and devastating event. Over the past three weeks, at least 160 people in the Philippines have died due to storms that have affected more than 9 million people. At least 8 000 homes were damaged or destroyed by the storms, while over 100 cities experienced power outages due to toppled power lines. The repeated storms rendered 65 roads and 40 bridges impassable. “They had not recovered from the previous storms when the super typhoon [Man-yi] hit. It’s been one calamity after another,” said Camarines provincial information officer Camille Gianan. The combined infrastructural damages from the last three typhoons—Man-Yi, Usagi, and Toraji—were estimated at approximately ₱469.8 million ($ 8 million), with central Luzon reporting the highest damage at ₱320.7 million ($5.46 million).
Israel sets a new all-time rainfall record in just 4 hours - The WatchersA historic 196 mm (7.72 inches) of rain fell in Zikhron Ya’akov on Tuesday morning, November 19, 2024, marking Israel’s heaviest downpour on record and triggering widespread floods across the country. Severe flooding impacted multiple regions, including Haifa and Hof HaCarmel, leading to blocked highways, submerged vehicles, and early school closures. . As the intense weather overwhelmed infrastructure, flash flood warnings were issued for the Judean Desert and the Dead Sea areas. In Zikhron Ya’akov, an unprecedented 196 mm (7.72 inches) of rain fell within just four hours on Tuesday morning. According to Dr. Amir Givati, director of the Meteorological Service in Israel, this rainfall set a new all-time record for Israel, representing nearly 60% of the region’s annual rainfall. The heavy rain caused significant flooding in parts of the Ma’agan Michael kibbutz, where drainage systems, though clean and prepared, could not handle the extraordinary volume of water. “The large quantities burdened the drainage systems, which were found to be clean and ready but could not withstand the unusual load and extraordinary amounts of water,” stated the Hof HaCarmel Regional Council. Floodwaters also disrupted daily life in Hof HaCarmel. At the local high school, students were sent home early as flooding turned the parking lot into a waterlogged area with knee-deep water. Cars were half-submerged, adding to the chaos. Meanwhile, a southbound coastal highway south of Haifa was blocked, further complicating travel in the region.
Storm Bert to rapidly intensify, bringing severe winds and heavy rain to the UK and Ireland - Storm Bert — the second named storm of the 2024/25 European storm season will undergo explosive cyclogenesis on Saturday, November 23, 2024, becoming a “bomb cyclone” with a rapid pressure drop of over 24 hPa in 24 hours. The system is set to bring heavy rain, strong winds, and freezing temperatures across the United Kingdom and Ireland this weekend, with warnings for flooding, power disruptions, and snow in higher regions.
- Storm Bert will undergo explosive cyclogenesis on Saturday, November 23, becoming a “bomb cyclone” with a rapid pressure drop of over 24 hPa in 24 hours.
- Yellow weather warnings have been issued across the UK and Ireland for heavy rain, strong winds of up to 112 km/h (70 mph), and snowfall, with significant risks of flooding and power disruptions.
- Southwest England, Wales, and parts of Ireland are expected to receive up to 125 mm (5 inches) of rain on Saturday, equivalent to a month’s average rainfall, leading to a high risk of localized flooding in already saturated areas.
- Northern England and Scotland could see up to 40 cm (15.7 inches) of snow in higher regions, while milder temperatures in Wales and southern England may rise to 12 – 15 °C (54 – 59 °F), creating a mix of blizzard conditions and potential flooding as snow melts into rain.
Bert will move in from the Atlantic on Saturday, undergoing explosive cyclogenesis as its pressure is expected to drop by more than 24 hPa within 24 hours. This qualifies the system as a “bomb cyclone” or “weather bomb.” The storm will move close to Ireland over the weekend, displacing the recent Arctic airmass. Very strong winds and heavy rain will track northeastwards over the country on Friday night (Yellow wind and rain warnings were issued nationwide), which will continue right through the weekend. While main impacts are expected on Saturday and Sunday, there’s potential for lasting impacts into early next week. Heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday, November 24, could cause localized flooding in urban areas and some river catchments, particularly in western and southwestern Ireland, where the soil is already saturated. USAA There's $200 on the table Apply & open your 1st USAA Classic Checking account & set up a qualifying direct deposit. Sponsored By USAA Learn More “There’s a strong likelihood of status orange wind warnings in western and northwestern counties,” Met Eireann meteorologist Andrew Doran-Sherlock said. “The impacts from Storm Bert will commence later on Friday and will continue through the weekend and potentially through early next week as well.”
Grindavík evacuated as new volcanic eruption begins on Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland - A new volcanic fissure opened up between Stóra-Skógfell and Sýlingarfell, near the town of Grindavík, Iceland’s Reykjanes Peninsula, at 23:14 local time (LT) on Wednesday, November 20, 2024. This marked the year’s seventh eruption in this region. The eruption was preceded by a small earthquake swarm at around 22:30 local time (LT), followed by pressure changes in boreholes operated by HS Orka at 22:37 LT. “Both independent measurements were a clear sign of the onset of a magma intrusion,” the Icelandic Met Office (IMO) reported. Although initial reports indicated lava was not moving southward toward Grindavík, the town was evacuated. Nearby Blue Lagoon geothermal spa was closed and some 200 people who were present there were also evacuated. As per IMO reports, the eruption peaked around 02:00 UTC on November 21, with the fissure no longer expanding and measurements indicating the activity should not increase. The fissure extended in the north-eastward direction for about 3 km (1.8 miles), with its southern end located near Sýlingarfell. IMO describes the eruption as significantly smaller than the previous on August 22. The estimated lava flow rate at 02:10 UTC, November 21 was about 1 300 m³/s (46 000 ft3), compared to approximately 2 500 m³/s (88 000 ft3) during the August eruption. At the same time, the lava front was approximately 500 m (1 640 feet) away from Grindavíkurvegur (Route 43) to the west. What’s different about this eruption is that it didn’t start with seismic activity increasing in the weeks ahead. While the amount of magma that had accumulated beneath Svartsengi was similar to the amount before the last eruption, the recent trend indicates that increasingly larger volumes of magma are required to trigger the next event. This suggests that the pattern observed in earlier eruptions may be changing. In the last update, posted early Thursday morning, IMO said the eruption continues at a decreased rate, with activity focused around the center of the fissure. The western lava, the one that runs between Sýlingarfell and Stóra Skógfell, crossed Grindavík road around 04:30 LT and approached Njar ðvíkuræd. The estimated lava flow on this lava tongue is about 300 m (980 feet) per hour. The northern lava does not flow towards any infrastructure. Gas emissions are being carried southward over Grindavík. Update: 15:11 UTC, November 21 Lava started flowing toward Blue Lagoon around 12:00 LT and took around 2 hours to reach the resort’s parking lot, which was soon completely engulfed in flames.
Asteroid 2024 VR4 flew past Earth at 0.07 LD - A newly discovered asteroid designated 2024 VR4 flew past Earth at a distance of just 0.07 LD / 0.00020 AU (29 300 km / 18 200 miles) from the center of our planet at 08:52 UTC on November 11, 2024.This is the 114th known asteroid to fly past Earth within 1 lunar distance and the fourth out of seven so far this month. It is also the 10th closest so far this year.2024 VR4 was first reported by Catalina Sky Survey on November 12 — one day after it made its close approach to our planetThe object belongs to the Apollo group of asteroids and has an estimated diameter between 3.1 and 6.8 m (10.2 – 22.3 feet).
Solar radiation storm reaches S2 - Moderate level following farside eruption - A strong solar flare erupted well beyond the west limb of the Sun at approximately 18:00 UTC on November 21, 2024. This event produced a large coronal mass ejection (CME) and sparked a solar radiation storm on Earth that reached S2 – Moderate levels on November 22. According to the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWP), the flare was most likely produced by old Region 3989. The associated CME was first seen in LASCO C2 imagery at 18:12 UTC on November 21. Since the CME originated well beyond the west limb, it was not expected to have an Earth-directed component. However, proton flux counts started rising soon after the flare erupted and reached S1 – Minor solar radiation storm levels at 19:50 UTC on November 21. S2 – Moderate levels were reached several times, starting at 01:05 UTC on November 22. The intensity of the storm has been decreasing since 07:00 UTC but is still in the S1 – Minor range, as of 15:40 UTC on November 22. S1 solar radiation storms can cause minor impacts on HF radio in the polar regions and occur approximately 50 times per one 11-year solar cycle. S2 – Moderate radiation storms can cause increased biological, operational, and communication impacts compared to S1 levels. Passengers and crew aboard high-altitude flights in polar regions may face an elevated radiation risk. Satellite operations can experience infrequent single-event upsets under S2 conditions, potentially disrupting functionality. Additionally, small effects on HF radio communication and navigation systems may occur in polar cap regions.
Climate proposal would see rich countries pay $250B a year - E&E News by POLITICO — Organizers of the United Nations climate summit issued a draft agreement Friday that would see the U.S., EU and other wealthy governments provide $250 billion a year in climate finance to developing nations by 2035 — an amount that falls far short of the trillion-plus figure that the poorer countries had sought. The agreement comes with many uncertainties about which nations would provide exactly how much money, especially with President-elect Donald Trump — who has scoffed at the reality of climate change and vowed steep cuts in government spending — about to take power in the U.S. The finance question has been the main topic of contention at the COP29 talks in Azerbaijan’s capital. The new target is for money to help poorer nations green their economies and cope with the effects of a heating planet. Talks had been due to end Friday but were almost certain to go into overtime, given how far apart the parties remain. “It’s ridiculous. With this number, they are spitting in our faces,” said Panama’s climate envoy, Juan Carlos Monterrey Gómez. “We don’t take that seriously,” said Kenyan climate envoy Ali Mohamed, referring to the $250 billion figure. Whatever agreed-upon sum comes out of the talks will be a follow-up to a $100 billion target that richer nations agreed to in 2009. They finally met that target two years after a 2020 deadline. Since then, climate needs and the damage from worsening disasters have grown more expensive and severe. The figure included in the latest draft text is unlikely to appease poorer governments, many of which had already balked at reports in POLITICO that the European Union was internally discussing a range of $200 billion to $300 billion per year. Blocs of developing countries that negotiate together have sought anywhere from $500 billion to $1.3 trillion annually from wealthier governments’ public funds. The date they want the target to come due is 2030, five years earlier than in Friday’s draft. “Is this supposed to be the developed countries ‘taking the lead’?” a senior negotiator for a large developing country wrote in a message accompanying a crying emoji. Several analyses have shown developing countries will need more than $1 trillion annually from outside sources to prevent global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius since the mid-19th century, the stretch target that the world’s governments set in the Paris climate agreement. The draft deal indicated that the shortfall, of as much as $1.3 trillion, could be filled largely using private capital by 2035. The draft is unclear on whether the $250 billion would come only from public funds and private investments they mobilize, or if it also includes all types of private investment. That’s an ambiguity poorer countries want stamped out. “It’s not gonna go well. The 250 is too low and also ridiculous that it says from both private and public for that one,” said a senior Latin American negotiator who was granted anonymity to discuss the negotiations. Even though the number fell short of developing countries’ wishes, a European negotiator said it will still strain some rich nations. “Higher than thought,” said the negotiator, who was granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic matters. “Some in the group will have to go back to capitals.” Another European negotiator said that for his country, $250 billion was “a good ballpark figure.” Senior Biden administration officials have noted they are negotiating a deal that a future Democratic or climate-friendly government could meet. Four years of Trump and at least two years of full Republican control of Congress will likely diminish, if not obliterate, U.S. climate finance contributions, moderating what the U.S. can reasonably achieve.
Last year, the world pledged to move away from fossil fuels. This year, not so much. — It was the most trumpeted achievement of last year’s climate conference. One year later, it’s nowhere to be found. The call to “transition away” from coal, oil and gas that came out of December’s COP28 summit in Dubai was historic — the first time 200 countries, including major oil and gas producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United States, had explicitly agreed on the need to wind down fossil fuels.But in Baku, Azerbaijan, COP29 is taking place after a U.S. election that handed the presidency back to Donald Trump, who has vowed to massively expand oil and gas production. And the host country’s president, Ilham Aliyev, used his keynote address to call fossil fuel resources a “gift of the God.”Against that backdrop, even getting this summit to reiterate last year’s nonbinding agreement has faced “pushback,” Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s climate minister, told reporters on Thursday. And some advocates for strong climate action appeared to be accepting defeat.
Meet the ‘great deregulator’ Trump chose to lead EPA - A Trump ally with a limited environmental record will have the task of undoing President Joe Biden’s climate legacy.Former President Donald Trump announced Monday that he had chosen former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) to head EPA in his second term. In doing so, Trump opted for a personal ally, fierce defender and frequent visitor to Mar-a-Lago over a policy wonk with deep knowledge of regulatory policy.Industry advocates and conservatives applauded the choice, arguing that Zeldin — who ran a competitive race two years ago against New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul — is a seasoned political operator capable both of leading Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda and of selling it to the American public.“I think he has all the ability and political savvy to be a great deregulator,” said Myron Ebell, who led Trump’s EPA transition team eight years ago. “I think he’s capable of mastering the technical side of it, but he also will be a great advocate in public for what they’re trying to do.”Ebell praised Zeldin for running a “straight MAGA” race for governor in deep blue New York, where he targeted the state’s ambitious climate laws as bad for Empire State manufacturing interests. Hochul defeated him by five points.Frank Maisano, a senior principal at lobbying firm Bracewell, also spoke approvingly of Zeldin as a fixture in “Trump World” who is “totally with the president’s agenda.”“The EPA Administrator last time … you had somebody who wasn’t politically savvy and was an attorney general who just ramrodded his policy through and didn’t have any real political acumen in the space,” said Maisano, referring to Trump’s first EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt.“The agenda, I believe, needs to be radical, and there will be a lot of opposition from the mainstream media, environmental groups, the Democrats in Congress,” said Maisano. “The job of deregulation is going to need someone who can also be a good defender and explainer of what they’re trying to do and what it will accomplish, and why it’s important and why it’s not wrecking the environment.”The Trump EPA is expected to roll back a host of Biden-era climate regulations for power plants, oil and gas, vehicles and refrigerants. Most of those will have to be replaced with laxer standards. It’s a work plan that takes time and requires the agency to build a regulatory record that will stand up in court. During the first Trump administration, Pruitt, then the EPA administrator, tried to undo the Obama administration’s climate and air quality rules. Many of those early rollbacks were overturned in court. Trump’s second EPA administrator, veteran environmental lawyer Andrew Wheeler, was seen as a steadier hand and architect of more durable policies. Wheeler made it known earlier this year that he’d be open to returning to EPA if Trump won reelection. But in choosing Zeldin, the former and future president has chosen a representative who defended him during his first impeachment trial over someone with deep experience in conservative environmental policy. On Monday, Zeldin made it clear that his primary mission will be deregulation. In a Fox News interview shortly after he was announced as Trump’s EPA pick, Zeldin said he would side with industry over public health protections. “There are regulations that the left wing of this country have been advocating through regulatory power that ends up causing businesses to go in the wrong direction,” he said in the Fox News interview Monday. “And President Trump, when he called me up — gosh, he was rattling off 15, 20 different priorities, clear focus. He wasn’t reading off of some sheet. It’s the top of his head.” Zeldin started his political career in 2010, when he was first elected to the New York state senate. In Albany, he made veterans affairs a top priority as well as cutting business taxes. He was elected to a conservative House district in Long Island in 2014. Zeldin has little background in energy or environmental regulations but has long been critical of Democrats’ climate policy. Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Fla.), who co-chaired the Climate Solutions Caucus, said Zeldin showed interest in environmental issues and a willingness to “work across the aisle.” But environmental groups quickly attacked Zeldin’s surprise nomination.“Naming an unqualified, anti-American worker who opposes efforts to safeguard our clean air and water lays bare Donald Trump’s intentions to, once again, sell our health, our communities, our jobs, and our future out to corporate polluters,” Sierra Club President Ben Jealous said in a statement. “Our lives, our livelihoods, and our collective future cannot afford Lee Zeldin — or anyone who seeks to carry out a mission antithetical to the EPA’s mission.” In Congress, Zeldin pushed for shellfish protections in the Long Island sound and opposed Trump’s offshore drilling plan while running for his second term. He also voted against a Republican effort to prevent the Department of Defense from considering climate change in its planning. During his unsuccessful run for New York governor in 2022, Zeldin got a larger vote share than any Republican candidate in recent years. He ran on a plan to expand fossil fuel energy, proposing to overturn the state’s ban on fracking. Zeldin said that the ban, which former Gov. Andrew Cuomo put into place in 2014 and state lawmakers made permanent in 2020, was harming rural parts of the state.“When I talk about reversing the state’s ban on the safe extraction of natural gas and approving new pipelines, that’s a lot of jobs, that’s a lot of revenue,” Zeldin told POLITICO in 2022.After he lost that race, Zeldin became chair of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Institute, an influential think tank of Trump administration veterans created after his 2020 loss. Linda McMahon, the group’s board chair, is now the co-chair of Trump’s transition team and has outsize power picking key personnel to staff the administration. AFPI has prepared dozens of executive orders for Trump’s first day in office.
Here’s who gave campaign cash to EPA nominee Lee Zeldin - Lee Zeldin, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead EPA, has relied heavily on industries including finance and real estate in his past campaigns for office. The Republican former Long Island congressman and unsuccessful New York gubernatorial candidate has not gotten significant campaign cash from energy or other interests that could complicate his leadership at EPA, a review of federal and state campaign finance records show. That’s in contrast to some previous Republican EPA leaders, like Scott Pruitt, who received significant campaign support from oil and natural gas companies, including a $50,000 contribution from the coal mining company then known as Murray Energy. If confirmed, Zeldin will head an agency under Trump that will likely seek to undo many of President Joe Biden’s environment and climate policies and to stymie implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act. Zeldin has brought in big money from donors like cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, casino magnate Steve Wynn, investment adviser Matthew Bruderman and private equity investor Thomas Tisch. He also brought in smaller amounts from leaders in the trash and recycling business, like metals executive and climate change advocate Andrew Sabin, waste management mogul Anthony Lomangino, and the owners of Gershow Recycling, as well as Adam Beren, the head of oil and natural gas producer Berexco.
The Clean Energy Boom in Republican Districts - The New York Times - Trump has said he’ll repeal President Biden’s climate law, but one North Carolina district shows how hard unwinding multibillion-dollar projects could be.Randolph County, a rural square of green woods and farm fields in the middle of North Carolina, is the unlikely home of one of the biggest electric vehicle battery projects in the world.Over the past two years, Toyota has announced a series of expansions that could invest more than $12 billion in the area, where it owns a manufacturing plant.It’s part of the biggest announced investment — a total of $17.6 billion — that any congressional district has received since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, according to E2, a nonprofit group that collects data on clean energy projects tied to the bill.Over the last two years, Biden’s landmark climate bill has ushered in more than $120 billion in announced investment across the country, per E2, supercharging spending in a burgeoning clean energy industry — think batteries, electric vehicles and solar — largely through tax credits.In Randolph, most of that money has pooled into the tiny, 2,650-person town of Liberty, where the only chain restaurant is a Subway attached to a single grocery store. Once dominated by the textile industry, Liberty had seen “minimal industry” until Toyota came to town in 2021, said Scott Kidd, Liberty’s town manager. Liberty is now sandwiched between the Toyota plant and a $5 billion semiconductor manufacturer in a neighboring county.President-elect Donald Trump has promised to repeal the I.R.A., and despite the more than 330,000 jobs that could result from the law, swing states that got billions from the plan like North Carolina still moved toward the G.O.P. in 2024.
In North Carolina, conservative clean energy supporters don’t think Trump will follow through on threats - Mark Fleming has a prediction for those terrified about the impact of a second Trump administration on the clean energy transition: “It’s going to work out better than folks think.” Fleming is head of Conservatives for Clean Energy, a Raleigh-based nonprofit that brings together lobbyists, consultants, and politicians on the right who support clean energy. The group formed a decade ago, not long before Trump’s first term began, and is now active in six Southeast states. On Tuesday, together with the Chambers for Innovation and Clean Energy, it held its biennial luncheon in downtown Raleigh. Coming just two weeks after an election most advocates see as a major setback for federal clean energy policy, the Raleigh event was not unlike past affairs, with congenial vibes, a half dozen awards to politicians and businesses, and presentation from leading Republican consultants assessing the political salience of clean energy. “It was an election about the economy and immigration,” explained Paul Shumaker, one such pollster and a fixture at these gatherings. “Clean energy is never going to be the issue.” Trump and his hostile, mostly fact-free rants on the campaign trail about wind energy and the climate crisis got little mention during the formal presentations. Side conversations showed conservatives seemed relatively unconcerned about the future president’s tirades and threats. “Governing is different than campaigning,” Fleming said. He and others believe much of Trump’s rhetoric was tossed as red meat to his base of supporters and won’t get meaningful follow-through. On technologies such as offshore wind — which the incoming president frequently lambasts — perhaps the administration and even the man himself can be convinced of its economic benefits, attendees suggested. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican who supports offshore wind in the commonwealth, “will be at the top of the list of conservative policy makers in terms of encouraging the Trump administration to look at the positives on offshore wind,” Fleming said. “It makes long term economic sense, but there’s going to be some education there.” Indeed, to help his re-election chances, Trump did flip his stance on offshore drilling four years ago — at least for the Southern Atlantic — after input from Republicans in Southeast states who oppose the practice.Despite Trump’s vague promise to curtail the Inflation Reduction Act, Fleming believes congressional Republicans will preserve most of Biden’s signature climate law because of its benefits in rural areas.Nine new projects announced in North Carolina the year after the measure’s passage, from lithium processing to vehicle-charging equipment plants, will spur tens of thousands of jobs and add $10 billion to the state’s GDP, the clean economy group E2 found.Such data should be fodder for members of Congress like Sen. Thom Tillis, North Carolina’s senior U.S. senator and a Republican, to fight to keep most of the Inflation Reduction Act’s provisions. “He has been such a thoughtful leader on energy issues,” Fleming said of Tillis. “He’s going to be a key decision maker in the U.S. Senate on these clean energy issues moving forward.”
Trump’s DOE pick scorns renewables, but not all of them - Chris Wright is a fossil fuel evangelist who nevertheless supports both geothermal and nuclear power. Just don’t call them clean energy. President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for Energy secretary has spent years claiming fossil fuels can combat poverty, improve women’s rights and increase American productivity. At the same, the fracking executive has waged a public campaign to distort climate science and spread falsehoods about global warming on podcasts, televised debates and before Congress. “The real facts of climate change, it’s a real issue that is slow-moving, its impacts are quite modest today compared to so many other bigger issues,” Wright said on a podcast called “Power Hour,” which is hosted by a fossil fuel supporter. “And I think the scientists working on it, they know that, too, but … it’s a source of funding for them.” Yet even as he has downplayed the consequences of a warming planet, Wright has expressed support for low-carbon-emission technologies. His company, Liberty Energy, invested in Fervo Energy, an advanced geothermal company that uses fracking technology to unlock the Earth’s heat to make power. And Wright sits on the board of Oklo, a startup developing small modular nuclear reactors. In that, Wright represents the new sort of oilman: One who says climate change is a problem, just not one that requires fixing immediately. He embraces low-carbon technologies, but lambastes traditional renewables such as wind and solar. In short, Wright believes the benefits of burning fossil fuels far outweigh the costs. “He frames the problem in a way that a big chunk of the climate action world doesn’t like,” said Bobby Tudor, who did business with Wright’s company as the founder and former CEO of Tudor, Pickering, Holt and Co., an investment bank active in the oil field. “He frames the problem as a dual challenge,” he added. “We have to provide reliable, affordable and secure energy while at the same time innovating and driving down [carbon dioxide] emissions in the system. If we don’t get the first part, then we’ll never get to the second part. I am entirely sympathetic to that framing.” If confirmed, Wright’s next stop will be the Department of Energy, which has a more limited role over the country’s energy system than its name might suggest. The agency traditionally has focused on early stage technological research, oversight of the country’s nuclear stockpile and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Wright will not be opening federal lands to oil drilling if confirmed by the Senate — that job will fall to the possible incoming Interior secretary, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R). Much more likely, Wright will fulfill Trump’s agenda by lifting a permitting pause on new liquefied natural gas terminals.
DOE writes big check for ‘clean’ hydrogen. Will Trump back it? - The Department of Energy’s announcement Wednesday of $2.2 billion in new “clean” hydrogen funding is renewing questions about the future of the low-carbon industry after President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. DOE said it’s committing up to $1.2 billion in federal cost share for the Gulf Coast Hydrogen Hub and as much as $1 billion to the Midwest Hydrogen Hub (MachH2) — two pledges meant to cement the Biden administration’s ambition to build up the U.S. sector. “The Biden-Harris administration has followed through on its promise to kickstart a new domestic hydrogen industry that can produce fuel from almost any energy resource in virtually every part of the country,” Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said in a statement.The two hubs are part of a $7 billion Biden administration effort to jump-start the nascent industry using funds from the 2021 bipartisan infrastructure law. The administration considers clean hydrogen to include “blue” hydrogen, which involves burning fossil fuels and trapping the emissions through carbon capture and storage, as well as “green” hydrogen made with renewables and “pink” hydrogen produced with nuclear power. In October of last year, DOE picked seven hubs to receive infrastructure law funding and develop hydrogen systems for the transportation, industrial and power sectors. The department has made initial awards to hubs in California, the Pacific Northwest and Appalachia. For the Midwest hub, planned production sites are located in Michigan, Illinois, Indian and Iowa, according to a department fact sheet. The plan envisions using wind, natural gas and nuclear power for hydrogen production to decarbonize power generation, as well as heavy industries like steel. The hub, which is led by the Midwest Alliance for Clean Hydrogen, would create approximately 12,000 jobs over its lifetime, DOE said.Project sites for the Gulf Coast hub are located in the Houston area and in South Texas. Led by HyVelocity, the hub plans to produce hydrogen from both low-carbon sources and natural gas tied to carbon capture. DOE said the Gulf Coast hub would create roughly 45,000 jobs over the project’s lifetime.While DOE’s pledge for the two hubs is $2.2 billion, the department awarded roughly $22 million to each project Wednesday to launch their initial respective phases, which includes “planning, design, and community and labor engagement” work.“By moving into Phase 1 with $22.2 million in federal funding, MachH2 will help accelerate the clean hydrogen economy and we are looking forward to working with communities throughout the Midwest to deliver the benefits of the clean energy future,” said Dorothy Davidson, CEO of MachH2, in a statement.It’s unclear how much hydrogen and other infrastructure funding could be rescinded administratively or through new legislation in a Republican Congress next year.Trump’s views on hydrogen hubs are not fully known, although his campaign website criticizes the fuel as “untested” and “plagued with safety and effectiveness concerns.” He’s also said he wants to claw back, or “impound,” infrastructure law funding.Spokespeople for the Trump transition team did not respond for comment.Some of Trump’s picks for top Cabinet positions have been supportive of hydrogen, however.Among the backers of the hubs are North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R), Trump’s choice to lead the Interior Department, and a new energy council.Any efforts by Trump to stall the hubs also could face opposition from major oil companies.“We’re pleased to be part of HyVelocity and look forward to continued collaboration with our partners from industry, academia, and government to help advance the low-carbon hydrogen industry,” said Dan Holton, senior vice president of Exxon Mobil Low Carbon Solutions. “DOE’s support is a key enabler in developing this emerging market, and this award marks an important step in that direction.”DOE materials for each of the hydrogen hubs included a summary of community benefits commitments. The documents noted that the commitments “will be refined and updated at the end of each project phase.”Companies behind the projects and industry associations applauded DOE’s new pledges.“These Hubs will be integral in driving domestic clean hydrogen production and utilization, which will create tens of thousands of good paying jobs and help ensure American leadership in this global market, while driving broad decarbonization,” said Frank Wolak, CEO and president of the Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association, in a statement.Environmentalists have mixed views of hydrogen. “There’s a potential for hydrogen to do good,” Cyrus Reed, conservation director with the Sierra Club’s Lone Star Chapter, said in an interview Wednesday. There’s also “the potential for it to be a false clean energy solution and do harm.” He said “the devil’s going to be in the details.” The Sierra Club supports green hydrogen, as long as it doesn’t “take away from existing wind and solar and batteries that’s helping to power our grid right now in a clean way,” Reed said. Others like Robert Bullard, a professor of urban planning at Texas Southern University, said he was concerned about the effects on public health from the Gulf Coast hub.“Community members have made it clear that the hub, instead of helping communities, will most likely allow large oil and gas corporations to continue polluting at the expense of public health and the environment,” Bullard said.The funding for the Gulf Coast and Midwest hubs is greater than the federal cost share for the Appalachian Hydrogen Hub — which is set to receive up to $925 million. A Mid-Atlantic Hub and a “heartland” hub in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota and Wisconsin have yet to ink deals with DOE.Representatives at those hubs did not respond for comment. A DOE spokesperson said the department is “focused on getting these hubs” finalized for awards.
How will Ohio replace its 750,000 lead-based water lines? -New federal rules went into effect last month that require utilities to replace all water service lines made out of lead within the next decade.That will be a big job for Ohio; the EPA says the state has nearly 750,000 of those lines here, the third highest number of any U.S. state. Even Cincinnati, which has a significant head start, could struggle to meet the challenge.Crews from Greater Cincinnati Water Works have been replacing lead and other potentially toxic water pipes since 2016.“Brass is yellow, copper is bronze or brown, galvanized [steel] is gray, lead is silver, or it can be gray too,” explains crew leader Dwayne Wallace Sr., standing in a hole about five feet deep outside a single-family home in Cincinnati. Anything except copper has to be removed and replaced with a shiny new copper pipe.There are nearly 45,000 lead service lines in Cincinnati, according to the public utility’s records. Executive Director Cathy Bailey says they’ve already replaced more than 6,000.“We finally got to a point where we're doing about 1,200 per year,” Bailey said. “We thought that was like a big deal, a good thing, that we were getting to 1,200. But now we realize we need to get to 3,600. And so there's going to be a significant ramp up to that.” Bailey says Cincinnati started replacing lead lines when the Flint, Michigan water crisis made national news. “We didn't wait for anyone to tell us that you have to do this because of a regulation,” she said. “We noticed that it was the right thing to do for our community from the beginning, and we made sure that our city leaders understood that, and they supported us.” Most of the lead lines still left in Cincinnati are privately-owned by homeowners, which means they have to give permission for Water Works to replace it. Community engagement and awareness is one area where Bailey says the experience the city gained in the last eight years is especially valuable. “There's a social and environmental justice aspect of this too, where a lot of these lead service lines still remain in neighborhoods that are older neighborhoods, that have potentially low income or disadvantaged communities,” Bailey said. Bailey recently served as a national consultant to the EPA, helping other U.S. cities establish their own lead line replacement programs. Many in Ohio have a long way to go: Columbus has at least 25,000 leadlines, and in Cleveland, the number is more than 230,000, according to the EPA.While the risk of lead poisoning from water lines is relatively low compared to lead-based paint, experts say there is no safe level of lead.“We’re worried mostly about how lead affects the developing body, particularly the brain,” said Dr. Nicholas Newman, director of the Environmental Health and Lead Clinic at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital.Dr. Newman says lead poisoning’s impact on early childhood development makes it dangerous.“Although the exposure might happen early in life, the effects continue through the whole rest of your life – because the brain only develops once,” he said. “You can’t really go back and click the undo button.”
Trump’s Energy Sanctions Are a Double-Edged Sword for Global Economy -The U.S. continues to uphold sanctions on several countries including Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. While the Biden administration eased sanctions on Venezuelan energy at the beginning of the year, and Iran has been able to increasingly circumvent sanctions, there was no clear path to bringing the sanctions to a total stop. Now, with the election of Donald Trump as President for a second non-consecutive term, U.S. energy sanctions could become stricter as he focuses on boosting domestic oil and gas output and strengthening controls on these countries. On his campaign trail, Trump repeatedly vowed to impose stricter sanctions on Iranian and Venezuelan crude, which could lead to a decrease in the global oil supply and drive up prices. “Conceptually, the impact of a potential second Trump term on oil prices is ambiguous, with some short-term downside risk to Iran oil supply … and thus upside price risk,” Goldman Sachs commodities analysts wrote in a research note. “But medium-term downside risk to oil demand and thus oil prices from downside risk to global GDP from a potential escalation in trade tensions.” Having often shouted the phrase “drill baby, drill” at his rallies, Trump is expected to double down on his support for U.S. oil and gas production. The uncertainty over new licenses seen during Biden’s term in office will be a thing of the past, as oil and gas companies pursue more exploration activities to maintain their record levels of crude and gas output. The U.S. is the world’s biggest oil producer, contributing 22 percent of the world’s crude, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA).While oil and gas output was growing to record highs under Biden, restrictions were also eased on energy from sanctioned countries, such as Iran and Venezuela. Iran is now producing around 3.5 million bpd of crude and exporting 1.8 million bpd, despite the continued sanctions. This is a significant increase from the amount being produced when Trump was in power, which fell to an official low of around 400,000 bpd under his previous administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign. We are already starting to see a change in the trend with Iranian oil, with exports falling due to the complex geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Iran’s exports are expected to decrease even further under the new Trump administration as the stricter imposition of sanctions is to be expected. This week, Trump selected U.S. Senator Marco Rubio – who has long pushed for a tougher U.S. policy on Iran and China – as secretary of state for his new government. Bob McNally, the president of Rapidan Energy, stated, “Senator Rubio has a consistent and strong record as a hawk on Iran, Venezuela, and China.” McNally added that Rubio will “zealously implement President-elect Trump’s plans to exert pressure on Iran’s crude exports, nearly all which go to China”.China has increased its import of discounted energy supplies from U.S.-sanctioned countries, including Iran, Venezuela and Russia, by blatantly circumventing sanctions in recent years. China has used special routes, ghost tankers, and other clandestine tactics to increase its imports of crude from these countries, and, as sanctions have loosened, it has imported oil and gas via more conventional routes.Russia overtook Saudi Arabia to become China’s biggest crude supplier in 2023, shipping 2.14 million barrels per day of oil to the Asian giant. China also reported importing 11 percent more crude from Iran in the first three months of 2024 than during the same period in 2023. This could present an issue as Trump attempts to impose stricter sanctions, potentially prompting China to retaliate if its energy supplies are disrupted.Nevertheless, Trump has doubled down on his plans for stricter sanctions on all three countries. In October, Venezuela’s oil exports rose to 950,000 barrels per day, a four-year high. However, Jose Cardenas, Washington strategic consultant and lobbyist, explained, “Revoking the oil licenses would send a powerful signal to not only Maduro, the opposition, the EU, and others that the U.S. is serious about a democratic transition taking place in Venezuela.” Any move to further strengthen sanctions on Venezuela would likely push the South American country closer to Iran and China, which could cause geopolitical tensions for the U.S. and its allies.When it comes to Russia, Ian Bremmer, the president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said, “What I am hearing from Trump advisors is that Trump would be prepared to put much tougher sanctions against them,” if Russia rejects a peace deal. As the U.S. has increased its natural gas output significantly over the last few years, and its allies have secured alternative gas supplies, it leaves Trump in a strong position to enforce strict sanctions on Russian energy. However, stricter sanctions could lead China to retaliate, as its energy supply chains become disrupted. It could also encourage Venezuela and Iran to deepen their ties with one another, thereby creating greater geopolitical unrest.
NERC Report Signals Concerns re NatGas-Fired Power This Winter - Marcellus Drilling News --The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released its annual Winter Reliability Assessment (WRA) last Thursday (full copy below). The report expresses concern about the potential for freezing temperatures to impact the delivery of natural gas to power plants this winter. Texas has worked hard to winterize its natgas infrastructure following previous disasters. Outside of Texas, there is “little to no information to indicate that upstream gas producers, gatherers, and processors have improved winterization of their operations,” said the report. Should we be concerned?
Coal Remains On Its Throne Despite Transition Push -- Report upon report sings praises to energy transition efforts that are leading to record wind and solar electricity generation. Outside the spotlight, however, things look very different. There, coal remains king—and this is not about to change anytime soon. Reuters recently reported that India’s coal power generation had fallen for the second month in a row in September thanks to higher solar output and lower electricity demand. Time for some solar praise, perhaps? Not really, because at the same time, India’s coking coal imports surged to a six-year high over the first half of the country’s latest fiscal year.Meanwhile, in neighboring China, coal remains the largest contributor to the country’s power supply despite China being the largest developer of wind and solar capacity in the world—and by a wide margin. The latest domestic production figures point to an increase. The latest demand figures point to an increase in coal in response to growing demand. Coal accounts for 60% of China’s power generation, and this is not about to change soon.Both India and China have stated quite plainly that they will not be following the example of the UK and shutting down any coal power plants in the observable future. Both India and China have officially prioritized energy supply security and affordability over emissions, even as they both pursue a more diverse grid. Ironically, it is coal power that is essentially fueling the energy transition. Coal power provides the cheap energy that Chinese and other Asian manufacturers of wind and solar components and equipment—not to mention EVs—use to keep their products cheap. Also ironically, the surge in demand for electricity from data centers will quite likely add a boost to coal demand in some parts of the world where natural gas is not as cheap as it is—for now—in the United States.In its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency expended a lot of words in praise of the energy transition and how future energy demand growth was going to be met entirely by wind and solar capacity that will be added.Citing recent ramp-ups in wind and solar investment in the past couple of years, the IEA wrote in the executive summary that the combined capacity of the two would “rise from 4 250 GW today to nearly 10 000 GW in 2030 in the STEPS, short of the tripling target set at COP28 but more than enough, in aggregate, to cover the growth in global electricity demand, and to push coal-fired generation into decline.”What the IEA did not write in the executive summary but kept for the full report was that at least until 2030, coal demand is not about to start going down—despite its own projections that demand for all hydrocarbons would be in decline before 2030, stifled by wind and solar growth.“In the STEPS, the outlook for coal has been revised upwards particularly for the coming decade, principally as a result of updated electricity demand projections, notably from China and India. Total coal demand is 300 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) or 6% higher in 2030 than in the WEO-2023. Even with this revision, coal demand declines by an average of 2% each year through to 2050.”This is what the IEA wrote in its report, where STEPS is the stated-policies scenario that the agency uses for its forecasts. In other words, the IEA is admitting that it was wrong last year to project the demise of coal. In this year’s edition of the WEO, it is correcting that incorrect assumption. To be fair, it ends that correction on a transition-positive note, but chances are it will have to revise its projections yet again next year. Because no one outside Europe and the Anglosphere is giving up coal—not least in order to keep supplying Europe and the Anglosphere with the components of their top-priority electrification of everything. As Bloomberg’s Javier Blas put it, the energy transition is powered by coal. It wasn’t hard to see where that urge to electrify everything would end. The visions were that the electrification of everything would be covered by surging wind and solar capacity that would have the decency to deliver the supply when there is demand for it. China, however, quickly realized this was not going to happen, and as it built huge solar installations after a huge wind park, it also built coal power plants. This is what India is doing right now, too. These two countries will be driving coal demand growth over the near to medium term. That’s because they know that supplying the power that their economies and voters demand is more important than counting CO2 molecules. Meanwhile, the UK is preparing scenarios for blackouts because its baseload capacity just got decimated with the shutdown of the country’s last coal power plant. Billions are being slated for investment in things like batteries and flywheels to store energy from wind and solar installations, but the realization that this cannot work without baseload capacity is yet to dawn on the Starmer government—as it is on the European authorities that are still pushing for an end to coal. If there is a perfect time to learn something important from China and India, that time is right now.
Why China is a climate technology leader, even with coal plants : NPR -- The two biggest climate polluters in the world are China and the United States.The U.S. is preparing for a second presidential term for Donald Trump, who has called climate change a hoax and federal investments in climate solutions a "green new scam".In China, it's a different story. China has made it clear it plans to be at the forefront of manufacturing climate solutions–and selling them around the globe.China is the world's largest producer of renewable energy, now constructing almost two thirds of all large-scale wind and solar power, according to nonprofit Global Energy Monitor.And China is spreading climate solution technologies across the developing world. Walk into an electric vehicle showroom in Colombia, the Dominican Republic, or Kenya these days, and the car on offer is likely made in China."They've set up a situation where it's good for them to sell clean energy technologies to the world," says Alex Wang, a professor of law at UCLA focused on Chinese climate policy. "It's very good economically, and it's good reputationally, and it's good environmentally."But while China is now the largest producer and distributor of climate solutions technologies — a key moneymaker for its troubled economy — the country still gets more than half its power from coal. "Which happens to also be the dirtiest fossil fuel," says Li Shuo, director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society, a nonprofit.As global leaders gather at the annual United Nations climate summit in Azerbaijan, countries see the U.S. under a lame-duck Biden administration with less clout. Meanwhile, China is signaling an increased role in climate diplomacy and continued leadership in international climate investments, despite its complicated relationship with coal. China's steady, long-term investments in climate solutions will make it harder for the U.S. to compete in these industries, Li says. "The U.S. does not want to get into a table tennis game with China, because that game the U.S. cannot win," he says. The Chinese government made investments 15 to 20 years ago in climate technologies that are paying off now, Wang says. "They dominate solar, wind, batteries, electric vehicles," he says.In September alone, China installed about 20 gigawatts of solar energy, according to the Chinese government. That's enough electric power for about 3.6 million U.S. homes. In all of 2023 the U.S. added roughly the same amount of solar power - 19 gigawatts, according to the U.S. government.Now China is making profits selling climate technologies like electric vehicles in Southeast Asian, African, and Latin American markets.There's a business strategy and a diplomatic strategy here, Li says. In addition to being moneymakers, climate investments and technology sales help China build diplomatic ties.In a speech at the U.N. climate summit in Azerbaijan, Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang said China mobilized more than $24 billion for developing countries since 2016 to help their response to climate change.Li says China is signaling it will take more of a leadership role to ensure developing countries — which did the least to cause global warming — get much-needed climate funds. Meanwhile, under Trump, the U.S is expected to retreat from climate diplomacy. Under his first term, Trump pulled the U.S. out of the global climate treaty, the Paris agreement. President Biden signed an order his first day in office returning the U.S. to the agreement. Climate experts expect Trump to remove the U.S. again.
DOE study may conclude LNG worse for climate than coal, lobbyists say - The Department of Energy is set to release a highly anticipated analysis as soon as next week on the environmental and economic impacts of natural gas exports, several people close to the process told POLITICO’s E&E News. The analysis is likely to find that U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments drive up domestic prices and are more costly to the climate than coal used in some countries where LNG is exported or could be exported, those people said. “The assumption is that a good time to release such a report would be the Friday after Thanksgiving,” said an energy lobbyist, who was granted anonymity to speak freely due to the sensitivity of the process. “I certainly don’t think they would want that [comment period] to extend onto the next administration.” DOE paused approvals of new LNG projects in January to review the environmental effects of the fuel. It emits methane, a potent greenhouse gas, when burned, leaked or released. DOE had committed to publishing the new analysis by the end of the year.
Iran Announces New Centrifuges To Come Online After IAEA Rebuke - In a 19-3 vote with 12 abstentions, the IAEA agreed to rebuke Iran for a “lack of cooperation.” The vote was driven by the US, UK, and their allies. Russia and China both voted against the resolution, along with Burkina Faso.The timing of the decision was particularly unfortunately, coming just days after IAEA chief Rafael Grossi’s visit to Iran, during which Iran agreed to measures designed to keep their stockpile of high-enriched uranium from growing. Iran also promised to ensure that it’s highest enrichment levels remain 60% or below, which is below the 90% level needed to make weapons.All that raised hope among officials actually invested in the safeguard efforts. The US-led effort for censure seems, as always, to underscore that Iran cannot take any steps that would satisfy them. Angered by the IAEA rebuke, Iran is promising a response.A joint statement by Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and Foreign Ministry announced they will take new measures, including bringing newer, more advanced centrifuges online. Such moves would of course be reversible, if the international community became more willing to negotiate and comply with the existing P5+1 nuclear deal.That seems unlikely in the near term. Though the P5+1 deal is nominally still in effect, the US withdrew from it in 2018, after repeated condemnations by President Trump. Since Trump’s return to office in imminent, it seems unlikely that the administration will be any more willing to make a deal than they were the last time.Iran is trying to assure that the new measures are only related to enrichment, which again remains well below the level of weapons-grade uranium. The statement issued also assured that Iran will continue with safeguard and technical cooperation with the IAEA, as it had previously agreed.In the end, the IAEA censure is less about anything Iran is doing than about continuing the narrative of the “Iranian nuclear threat.” That this is the second time this year that the IAEA has voted on such a measure despite there being no real change in Iran’s policy or action. The US intelligence community has repeatedly confirmed that Iran has not decided to make a nuclear weapon. Seemingly every Iranian earthquake leads hawks to speculate a secret detonation has taken place, however, and the fear-mongering continues.
Enbridge Gas replacing pipelines in Austintown Township as part of big national project - Enbridge Gas has set its sights to Austintown Township to incorporate into its large plans to replace 14,000 feet of mainline pipeline in local streets in 2025. The Ohio Pipeline Infrastructure Replacement project is a $4 billion project that launched in 2008 and was expanded with help from Public Utilities Commission of Ohio (PUCO) approval in 2016. It aims to replace 5,500-miles of Enbridge's 22,000-mile pipeline system. One of the areas of focus for Enbridge at the moment is Burkey Road. Austintown local schools will have a meeting on November 21 to discuss an easement for Enbridge Gas. When this project begins in Austintown around 230 customers could be impacted. Those customers will be notified in advance and traffic control measures will be made to maintain public safety during the construction. The project is estimated to cost up to $3 million. PUCO approved renewal investment into the project in 2020 and authorized annual investment through to 2026. The investment is reflected in the basic service charge portion of the customer bill and adjusts annually based on the investment from the previous year.
Enbridge takes land for Burkey Road gas pipeline project - The Vindicator — A gas line project will affect several homeowners along one road in the township, including the township itself. At Monday’s trustees meeting, Township Administrator Mark D’Apolito said Austintown owns one parcel of land along a stretch of Burkey Road where Enbridge Ohio Gas (formerly Dominion) will be replacing a long length of main gas line, and is purchasing right-of-way from property owners there to accommodate the project. “They don’t need our approval or blessing, as a utility,” D’Apolito said. “The only reason we’re involved is because we’re a property owner. This isn’t something we have authority over.” D’Apolito said the right-of-way will extend an additional 10 feet into property owners’ yards. Austintown owns a 0.41-acre parcel along the stretch in question. The utility right-of-way naturally extends 25 feet in each direction from the centerline of the road – 12 feet to the curb, then another 13 feet to the end of the right-of-way. The new project will add 10 feet onto that, meaning that homeowners cannot build any large structures within that space. D’Apolito said zoning laws prohibit building items like sheds that close to the road anyway. Stehpanie Moore, a spokesperson for Enbridge Ohio, said the company is securing the right-of-way along Burkey for a Pipeline Infrastructure Replacement project. “Our engineering team is designing a project to replace 14,000 feet of mainline pipeline in 2025,” she said. “We’re currently in the design and permitting portion of the project. The design team is seeking a 10′ easement roughly 170′ feet in length across two parcels that are parallel to Burkey Road to cross a stream.” Moore said that once the $3 million project begins in earnest, roughly 230 customers could be impacted. “We notify customers in advance of starting a project and make sure traffic control measures are in place to keep traffic flowing and to ensure public safety for the duration of construction,” she said. Moore said they estimate the project could take three to four months to complete.
Enbridge Gas Ohio is fined $350000 for violating pipeline safety regulations — Enbridge Gas Ohio will pay $350,000 for violating state and federal natural gas pipeline safety regulations in a recent settlement agreement with the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio. Enbridge Gas Ohio, formerly known as Dominion Energy, has violated pipeline safety regulations several times since 2012, which previously resulted in three explosions. The most recent set of violations pertains to the company’s pipeline operations across Ohio. This includes a failure to maintain proper construction, abide by necessary procedures and ensure proper qualifications for outside contractors. Violations PUCO staff conducted a routine inspection at several Enbridge Gas Ohio locations between February and March 2023 and found several issues, including 36 instances of exposed pipelines. The company was also issued 11 Notice of Probable Noncompliance letters for a failure to monitor, clean and coat newly installed or exposed piping in communities like North Canton, Akron and Youngstown. Enbridge Gas Ohio also failed to keep adequate records. In its case filing, PUCO states that “most Dominion project folders reviewed were disorganized and difficult to review and understand.” PUCO found that the company does not keep records of abandoned pipelines, meaning it can’t ensure abandoned pipelines are disconnected from supplies of natural gas. The agency determined problems in the company’s qualification program, as well, in which two individuals did not have proper qualifications to conduct certain tasks and one individual on two separate occasions was said to have performed a task but did not work that day. PUCO notified Enbridge Gas Ohio of these violations in June 2023 and initially proposed a $500,000 fine. The state agency issued several orders for the company to come into compliance, which included creating an improved system of record keeping, establishing effective oversight of contractors and implementing a plan to regularly schedule maintenance tasks. Dominion Energy Ohio was acquired by Enbridge Inc. in March. Before then, the company had a history of violations since 2012, when a gas explosion and fire destroyed 11 homes and damaged another 150 in Fairport Harbor, Ohio, on Jan. 24, 2011.State Fire Marshall and PUCO investigators determined the explosion was a result of two gas line pressure regulators that failed on a village street. This sent highly pressurized gas from delivery lines into homes.The incident was the result of improperly designed regulators and the lack of an annual safety inspection, according to PUCO. Dominion Energy estimated a cost of $1.3 million in damages. PUCO later fined the company $500,000.Dominion Energy was also fined two other times in 2019. The company had to pay $25,000 for a fire in Cleveland on Feb. 3, 2019, that was caused by a natural gas release from a pipeline.Several months later, a pipeline ruptured in Pepper Pike, Ohio, on Nov. 15, 2019, that generated a gas line explosion. The incident was caused by a faulty weld which PUCO said was a result of poor construction, a failure to follow established procedures and a lack of oversight. The company was fined $1 million.According to Matt Schilling, director of public affairs at PUCO, the latest violations were “part two” of unresolved issues carried over from the Pepper Pike explosion.
MPLX “Sweet Spot” is Processing M-U Rich Gas and Producing NGLs - Marcellus Drilling News - In late 2015, MPLX (i.e., Marathon Petroleum) bought out and merged with the Utica Shale’s premier midstream company, MarkWest Energy, for $15 billion (see MarkWest Energy Investors/Unitholders Approve Merger with Marathon). The “new” MarkWest, aka MPLX, plays on a much larger stage now, including ownership and operation of major assets in the Permian Basin and the Bakken Shale, in addition to the Marcellus/Utica. However, the company's first love, Marcellus/Utica, still plays a starring role. Greg Floerke, the executive vice president and COO of MPLX, sat for an interview with Hart Energy editorial director Jordan Blum at the company's recent DUG Appalachia event in Pittsburgh.
NW Pa. Injection Well Leak Went Undiscovered for 109 Days -Marcellus Drilling News - MDN is going to eat some crow with this story. In 2016, we called attention to efforts by neighbors (and anti-fossil fuelers) in Warren County, PA, in testing water sources near a wastewater injection well that had been operating since 2013 (see Concerned Citizens Test Water Near NWPA Injection Well, No Leaks). There had been no leaks from the Bear Lake Properties Bittinger #4 oil and gas wastewater injection well site in Columbus Township for (at that time) three years. We pointed out that injection well leaks are rare. However, there has been a leak at the Bittinger #4 well, and it was a doozy, traveling approximately 1,770 feet from the well site. That’s a full one-third of a mile. Not good. Even worse is that the company (due to an errant employee) failed to report the leak to the Pennsylvania Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) for 109 days.
PA Adds One Rig, Now @ 15; National Rig Count Drops One Rig @ 584 - Marcellus Drilling News --One month ago, Pennsylvania’s rig count dropped to just 12 rigs, the lowest that state has operated in the last 17 years (see PA Drops Another Rig to 17-Year Low; National Rig Count Even @ 585). Since then, PA has re-added one rig per week for three weeks in a row, and as of last Friday, the state was running 15 rigs for the first time since early October. Ohio and West Virginia both remained constant, with ten active rigs each. Cumulatively, the M-U sported 35 active rigs last week. We haven’t seen a rig count that high since August of this year (three months ago).
PA DEP Claims Permit Backlog for O&G Now Completely Eliminated --Marcellus Drilling News - Permitting in Pennsylvania overseen by the Dept. of Environmental Protection (DEP) has been a hot mess for years. A Chapter 102 Erosion and Sedimentation permit sometimes takes two, three, or even six months for approval — instead of the policy-mandated 14 days. According to a DEP press release from yesterday, that’s all behind us now. DEP Acting Secretary Jessica Shirley and Gov. Josh Shapiro said the agency has eliminated the backlog for oil and gas permits. Credit where credit is due
UGI Sells Marcellus Gas-Fired Power Plant in NE Pa. to Castleton -Marcellus Drilling News - UGI Corporation, a diversified energy company with midstream (pipeline) operations in the Marcellus and one of Pennsylvania’s largest utility companies, is selling its 169-megawatt natural gas-fired power plant near Wilkes-Barre, PA, to Castleton Commodities International for an undisclosed amount. The plant’s owner/seller is actually a wholly-owned subsidiary of UGI Corp. called UGI Energy Services.
Mountain Valley Pipe Dinged Small Fine by Va. for Erosion Violation -- Marcellus Drilling News Antis did their best, but their best wasn’t good enough. Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) victoriously began to flow up to 2 Bcf/d of Marcellus/Utica molecules in June (see Confirmed: M-U Gas Now Flowing Through Mountain Valley Pipeline). Construction of the project, which crosses steep mountains, has not been without its challenges, chief among them erosion at some construction sites due to heavy rain. Of course, most of that erosion would not have happened if environmental groups had not sued, and had a colluding Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals not delayed completion of the project FOR YEARS. Shame on them for causing more environmental damage than building the pipeline on time would have caused. The Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) recently dinged MVP with another small fine ($17,500) for erosion violations.
When Will the M-U Get Another New Greenfield Pipeline Project? | Marcellus Drilling News -- Environmental wackos have made building a new natural gas pipeline anywhere in the northeast (or southeast) such a heinously nasty experience with multiple and repeated regulatory challenges and a blizzard of lawsuits that nobody has ventured to propose a new "greenfield" (brand new from scratch) pipeline since Mountain Valley Pipeline, which took a decade to complete at double the original budget. We're hopeful the situation will change under the new Trump administration. The Marcellus/Utica industry recognizes we need another new pipeline to move more of our molecules to other regions. What would be the "driving force" to prompt a company to be willing to try once again?
LG&E and KU Break Ground on New 640-MW Gas-Fired Power Plant -- Marcellus Drilling News --Louisville Gas and Electric Company (LG&E) and Kentucky Utilities Company (KU), subsidiaries of PPL Corporation, celebrated a significant milestone last week with the groundbreaking of Mill Creek 5, a state-of-the-art 640-megawatt (MW) natural gas combined-cycle generating unit in Jefferson County, Kentucky. This new facility is set to begin powering homes and businesses in 2027. While no mention was made in the official announcement, we suspect the plant, when operational, will use Marcellus/Utica molecules, making this a major new customer for our gas.
ONEOK sells interstate pipeline operations in $1.2 billion deal - Oklahoma Energy Today - ONEOK, Inc. announced that it has executed a definitive agreement with DT Midstream, Inc. under which ONEOK will sell its three wholly owned interstate natural gas pipeline systems for a total cash consideration of $1.2 billion subject to customary adjustments. Based on Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) filings, the purchase price represents 10.8 times previous 12 months EBITDA as of June 30, 2024. The transaction, unanimously approved by the boards of directors of both ONEOK and DT Midstream, is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2024, and is subject to customary closing conditions, including Hart-Scott-Rodino Act clearance. “This transaction will align and enhance our capital allocation priorities within our integrated operating footprint,” said Pierce H. Norton II, ONEOK president and chief executive officer. “DT Midstream is the ideal owner of these FERC regulated interstate pipeline systems, with our employees sharing a similar culture of safety and reliability as they will continue to be excellent stewards of these assets providing essential natural gas transportation services. The three interstate pipeline systems include:
- Guardian Pipeline, L.L.C., which interconnects with several pipelines at the Chicago Hub near Joliet, Illinois, and with local natural gas distribution and electric generation companies in Wisconsin;
- Midwestern Gas Transmission, which is a bidirectional system with a major pipeline interconnect near Portland, Tennessee, and with multiple interstate pipelines that have access to both the Utica Shale and the Marcellus Shale, and multiple interstate pipelines at the Chicago Hub near Joliet, Illinois; and
- Viking Gas Transmission, which is a bidirectional system that interconnects with a major pipeline system at the U.S. border near Emerson, Canada, and Marshfield, Wisconsin.
Upon closing of this transaction, the net proceeds from the sale are expected to enhance ONEOK’s financial flexibility and ONEOK’s deleveraging trend toward its previously announced target of 3.5 times during 2026.
Plaquemines Closer to First LNG After Receiving Key FERC Approval --Venture Global LNG Inc. has received approval to introduce natural gas to the first block of liquefaction trains at its Plaquemines export project in Louisiana, clearing a regulatory hurdle that paves the way for the facility to start producing the super-chilled fuel in the coming weeks. FERC approved the company’s Nov. 12 request to commission and introduce natural gas to the first block, which includes two 0.626 million tons/year (Mt/y) trains. The 20 Mt/y project includes 18 blocks and 36 trains. The project still needs additional approvals for interconnecting systems before it can introduce gas to the first trains. Analysts have pushed back the startup for Plaquemines primarily because it did not receive approval to introduce natural gas into the first block sooner. Energy infrastructure and permitting analytics firm Arbo told NGI in October that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission would have had to grant key authorizations months ago for Plaquemines to remain on schedule. U.S. LNG Project Delays, Falling European Demand Creating Headwinds for Natural Gas Shippers As spot rates for LNG vessels continue to tumble, ship owners are looking for more profitable short-term opportunities this winter before the global natural gas market tightens again. Chart showing spot LNG vessel rates for 19 Nov. 2024. During 2024, global gas markets have continued to adjust to the massive shift in dynamics after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. That’s created a soft spot in the market for LNG shipping companies despite supply risks – especially for European buyers – keeping global benchmarks elevated. Import demand in Europe, which has been the main destination for U.S. LNG volumes for the past two years, has been depressed thanks to substantial storage on the continent and consecutive mild winters.
U.S. Export Facilities Absorbing More Natural Gas as Winter Weather Hits Europe, Asia — U.S. feed gas nominations to LNG export facilities have surged higher this month amid colder weather overseas and steadier output following the maintenance season. Natural gas prices at key hubs versus U.S. LNG feed gas pipeline deliveries. Feed gas flows have at times topped 14 million Dth/d this month and have averaged nearly 13.4 million Dth/d so far in November, according to NGI data. That’s up from an average of 13.02 million Dth/d in October and 12.64 million Dth/d in September. Deliveries have not neared the all-time high of 15.15 million Dth/d set on Dec. 17, 2023, NGI data shows. Feed gas deliveries to the Plaquemines LNG facility under construction in Louisiana have helped move the needle too, but there’s “not really much going on there in the grand scheme of things” just yet, said NGI’s senior energy analyst Josiah Clinedinst.
Enbridge Ready to Bring On Fourth Cavern at Texas Natural Gas Storage Facility --Enbridge Inc. has requested FERC authorization to bring online Cavern 4 at its Tres Palacios Gas Storage facility in Matagorda County, TX to make an additional 4.5 Bcf of natural gas storage capacity available to shippers in the Gulf Coast. Map showing Enbridge Inc.'s Gulf Coast footprint including gas storage facilities. The Canadian-based company said last month it successfully de-watered Cavern 4 to an initial capacity of about 4.5 Bcf, among other facilities. That is a portion of the cavern’s total working gas capacity of about 6.5 Bcf and 3.5 Bcf of base gas capacity. The full 10 Bcf of new certified capacity has an in-service date in the first quarter of 2025. The Gulf Coast facility has interconnects with pipelines including Transcontinental Gas Pipe Line Co. LLC (Transco), Texas Eastern Transmission LP (Tetco) and Natural Gas Pipeline Co. of America (NGPL). These interstate pipes also interconnect with the 2.5 Bcf/d Matterhorn Express Pipeline that moves gas from the Permian Basin to the coast.
U.S. Natural Gas Exporters Progress Self-Reporting as Questions Grow Around Climate Policy Cooperation --As the Biden administration makes overtures to secure natural gas emissions policies with key allies, major energy companies are moving forward with independent reporting and fighting to stay in environmental policy discussions. (a chart showing the destination countries of U.S. LNG exports by month) While the 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) progressed in Azerbaijan, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) administrators called on European Union (EU) leaders to ensure European gas importers and third party countries could easily access U.S. LNG supplies when new methane regulations are enforced. The letter, signed by Assistant Energy Secretary Brad Crabtree and Assistant Administrator Joseph Goffman, asked for collaboration to make sure policies work in unison, while also highlighting the administration’s efforts to lead on methane assessment and abatements in the U.S. gas supply chain.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Hit 5-Month High on Late-November Cold Snap Forecast (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday to a five-month high, on forecasts for colder weather in late November that should boost heating demand and force utilities to start pulling gas from storage by the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.5 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.998 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since June 12. Capping gains were milder weather forecasts for the next two weeks that could limit heating demand. Analysts have said mild autumn weather should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage than usual for the week ended Nov. 15 and possibly Nov. 22. If correct, the week ended Nov. 15 would be the first time since October 2022 that inventories rose more than usual for five straight weeks. There was currently about 7% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) so far in November from 101.3 Bcf/d in October. That compares with a record 105.3 Bcf/d in December 2023. Annual output remained on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand in 2020. Many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained soft since then. Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 27 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 28-Dec. 4. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.7 Bcf/d this week to 115.4 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
US natgas prices jump 7% to 1-year high on surprise storage draw, colder forecasts --U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% to a one-year high on a surprise weekly withdrawal from storage, forecasts for colder weather and rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 3 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 15.That compares with the 6 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, the 12 bcf increase seen during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 16 bcf for this time of year.Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 23.5 cents, or 7.4%, to $3.428 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 10:42 a.m. EST (1542 GMT), putting the contract on track for its highest close since November 2023. During five days, the contract has gained about 23%.Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.29dk2902lThat kept output on track to decline in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand in 2020.Many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained soft since then.Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly near normal through Nov. 27 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 28-Dec. 6.With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.8 bcfd this week to 115.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG’s outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.5 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.On a daily basis, LSEG said feedgas was on track to jump to an 11-month high of 14.5 bcfd on Thursday, up from 14.1 bcfd on Wednesday, as flows to a couple of plants rose to record highs. Cameron LNG’s 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana was on track to pull in a record 2.4 bcfd on Thursday, while flows to the first 1.8-bcfd phase of Venture Global’s Plaquemines facility, which is under construction in Louisiana, was on track to rise to a record 60 million cubic feet per day on Thursday. Gas prices rose to 11-month highs of around $15 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia on worries about Russian supplies and the coming of colder winter weather.
NatGas Hits Highest Price In Year On "Very Cold Pattern Developing" Across Lower 48 - Natural gas futures in Chicago jumped 6% on Thursday, reaching a one-year high as traders price a cold blast across the Lower 48. Futures for December delivery soared to $3.372 per million British thermal units, up 6% this morning and up nearly 27% since Nov. 8. Prices also touched a one-year. Ole R. Hvalbye, a Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), told energy news website Rigzone that NatGas soared on "the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) short-term forecast (6-14 days) predicts colder than normal temperatures spreading from the West Coast, with below-average conditions expected across much of the country, except for the Gulf Coast and East Coast." Data from Bloomberg shows that temperatures across the Lower 48 are forecasted to trend below a 30-year average for the next few weeks, indicating that fuel demand will rise as thermostats are turned up. More weather forecast... Confidence increasing of a VERY cold pattern developing to end November and start December.Both the EPS/GEFS is support of a widespread notably below normal pattern for much of the US. You won't find a much better upper-level pattern with ridging near Greenland and the N.… pic.twitter.com/uQ2iNN1PxGOn this note, I suspect the fail of La Niña is playing a major role in preventing the Eastern/SE ridge that has been so dominant to be prevalent. Stretched polar vortex also setting up in the right spot is a big key too. Fun pattern for #Winter lovers approaching. https://t.co/XUWKsIzKH3 Plus, there are major snow threats across the Mid-Alantic and Northeast.Impact SNOW will fall today from Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana into West Virginia. Snow will fall tonight and tomorrow in western North Carolina, West Virginia, western Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York state and northwest New Jersey. These could be double digits plowable,…pic.twitter.com/jYw4hQqhrM "Adding to the bullish sentiment, feedgas supply to U.S. LNG export terminals has climbed to 14.07 billion cubic feet per day, the highest level since January 2024, according to BNEF," Hvalbye added.The SEB analyst continued, "This marks a significant increase from last week's average of 13.5 billion cubic feet per day. Additionally, export flows to Mexico are estimated at 6.6 billion cubic feet per day today, highlighting strong demand from the region."He said, "Domestic natural gas production in the U.S. is estimated at 101.8 billion cubic feet per day today, slightly below last week's average of 102.4 billion cubic feet per day." "Meanwhile, demand for nat gas across the Lower 48 states has risen to 79.3 billion cubic feet per day but remains below the five-year average of approximately 82.7 billion cubic feet per day," he noted. Hvalbye added that the EU gas market will continue to see upward price pressure as global demand for LNG cargoes intensifies during the Northern Hemisphere winter season.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices Surge 5% on Surprise Storage Draw, Colder Forecasts (Reuters) — U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Thursday to a one-year high on a surprise weekly withdrawal from storage, forecasts for colder weather and rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants. Capping those price gains, however, was news that a liquefaction train at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas tripped offline on Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said utilities pulled 3 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended Nov. 15. That compares with the 6-Bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, a 12-bcf increase seen during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 16 Bcf for this time of year. Front-month gas futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 14.6 cents, or 4.6%, to settle at $3.339 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), their highest close since November 2023. That kept the front-month in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row and put it up for a fifth straight day. During those five days, the contract has gained about 20%. With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.8 Bcf/d this week to 115.7 Bcf/d next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants has risen to an average of 13.5 Bcf/d so far in November, up from 13.1 Bcf/d in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 Bcf/d in December 2023. On a daily basis, LSEG said feedgas was on track to jump to an 11-month high of 14.5 Bcf/d on Thursday, up from 14.1 Bcf/d on Wednesday, as flows to a couple of plants rose to record highs. Cameron LNG's 2.0-Bcf/d plant in Louisiana was on track to pull in a record 2.4 Bcf/d on Thursday, while flows to the first 1.8-Bcf/d phase of Venture Global's Plaquemines facility, which is under construction in Louisiana, was on track to rise to a record 60 million cubic feet per day on Thursday. Gas prices rose to 11-month highs of around $15 per MMBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker benchmark in Asia on worries about Russian supplies and the coming of colder winter weather.
US natgas prices fall 6% on rising output, less cold forecasts (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures dropped about 6% in volatile trade on Friday as higher prices in recent weeks have finally prompted producers to start boosting output and on forecasts for less cold weather over the next two weeks than previously expected. After closing at a one-year high on Thursday, front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 21.0 cents, or 6.3%, to settle at $3.129 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Despite Friday's price decline, the front-month was still up about 11%, putting it up for a fifth week in a row for the first time since September. During those five weeks, the contract has gained about 39%. In the spot market, meanwhile, the coming of wintry weather across much of the U.S. and Canada caused gas prices to rise to their highest levels since January in several regions, including the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana, New York NG-CG-NY-SNL, Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL, the Eastern Gas South hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in Pennsylvania and AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta. Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 101.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, down from 101.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. But on a daily basis, output over the past couple of days was on track to jump by around 1.4 bcfd to a preliminary 11-week high of 102.8 bcfd on Friday. Analysts expect producers will boost output in 2025 following a series of production cuts this year, as rising demand from liquefied natural gas export plants is expected to increase prices that had fallen to multi-decade lows. Average spot monthly prices at the Henry Hub fell to a 32-year low in March and have remained soft since then. Gas prices traded around $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 and near an 11-month high of $15 at the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia.
Nov. STEO Predicts Henry Hub Gas Price to Average $2.90 in 2025 -- Marcellus Drilling News --The U.S. Energy Information issued its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook last week, the agency’s monthly best guess about where energy prices and production will go in the next 12 months. In October, the EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas will be $3.10/MMBtu in 2025 (see Oct. STEO Predicts Lower Output, NatGas Price to Avg $3.10 in 2025). Last week, the agency reduced that number by $0.20 to $2.90/MMBtu. EIA predicted the average spot price for natural gas for all of 2024 will end up being $2.20/MMBtu, a drop of $0.10 from the October prediction. EIA analysts also predict that the average spot price will be $2.80 during the first quarter of next year.
Look for Increase in U.S. LNG Exports to Europe in Coming Weeks -Marcellus Drilling News -- Reuters predicts a sharp increase in U.S. LNG exports to European destinations “in the coming weeks.” Why? Because “the price spread between domestic natural gas and Europe’s main gas pricing hub hit one-year highs.” What the heck does that mean? We will explain it below.
Earthquakes hit Texas town plagued by rotten egg stench -- Residents in West Texas experienced another jolt early on Monday morning as a series of earthquakes shook the region, continuing a pattern of increased seismic activity and all-round strange happenings. The largest of the quakes, with a magnitude of 3.4, struck near the small town of Toyah, home to 61 people where a mysterious 100ft geyser recently sprung into the air. S While Monday's tremor caused no reported damage, it was strong enough to be felt by people in surrounding areas, sparking renewed debate about its potential causes. The town has also been subjected to a rotten egg smell that has been hanging in the air for the last two months. A huge geyser has been shooting water more than 100ft into the air which can be seen for miles around in Toyah, Texas. The site was the location of a dry well in the 1960s but hasn't been used in decades The stench came after a well that exploded sending a stream of chemical water upwards into the sky so high that it could be seen from 7 miles away in Reeves County. When the fire department arrives on scene to deal with the exploding wells and blasts of water, they're powerless with little they can do to contain the geyser. 'There's not a whole lot we can do,' said Reeves County Emergency Services Chief Ronald Lee to the Texas Tribune. 'There's nothing that we have the equipment to do.' Those living in the area are concerned the leaks and blowouts might contaminate clean water sources, not to mention the toxic chemicals being blasted into the air each time, including methane which contributes to climate change. The Railroad Commission of Texas has spent $25million to plug known orphaned wells and is about to receive an additional cash injection of $80million. Yet there appears to be no way to plug the orphaned wells before they blow with communities also not equipped to deal with them. The commission has so far plugged 737 wells which is only about 10 percent of the number of estimated orphaned wells in Texas. Part of the problem is also down to lax regulations with companies simply abandoning wells after they no longer produce oil or water rather than properly sealing them. Toyah's well, for example, is 11,331 feet deep, and was drilled in 1961 by El Paso Gas Company. It had been inactive for decades. In terms of seismic activity, according to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), which monitors seismic events nationwide, Monday's quake was part of a larger trend of frequent earthquakes in Texas. Two additional, smaller tremors - a 1.3 magnitude quake near Coahoma and a 1.6 magnitude quake elsewhere in the region - were also recorded on Monday morning. Although minor, they are part of a growing number of quakes in the state. West Texas has seen a notable uptick in seismic activity over the past several years. In September, a 5.1 magnitude earthquake sent shockwaves across the state, with tremors felt as far as San Antonio and Austin. Toyah's well, for example, is 11,331 feet deep, and was drilled in 1961 by El Paso Gas Company. It had been inactive for decades. This was followed by another significant event in October, when a 3.5 magnitude quake shook the Toyah area. A shake of such magnitude can cause hanging objects to swing, but damage is unlikely to occur as a result. Experts say these stronger quakes signal a concerning rise in both the frequency and intensity of seismic events. The spike in earthquakes has led many to scrutinize the region's booming oil and gas industry, particularly practices such as fracking and wastewater disposal. Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, involves injecting high-pressure fluid into underground rock formations to extract oil and gas, while wastewater from these operations is often disposed of by injecting it back into the ground. Some scientists and environmentalists believe these activities could be linked to the surge in earthquakes.
Controversial Line 5 project faces more legal action in Wisconsin - A legal challenge is expected since the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has granted key permit approvals to a Canadian energy company to reroute its controversial Line 5 pipeline in northern Wisconsin.The DNR's approval allows Enbridge Energy to begin preparations for the rerouting project.Stephanie Tsosie, staff attorney for Earthjustice, represents the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa Tribe, whose lands have been directly affected by Line 5 for years. She said Enbridge still needs federal approval to move forward with construction."This is not a foregone conclusion that Enbridge is going to have this pipeline operating," Tsosie pointed out. "There's a lot of processes, there's a lot of approvals, and this is just one of them. And we're ready to stand with the Band and figure out ways to make sure that, whatever approvals there are, that they comply with the law."She explained the current line is illegally trespassing on tribal lands. Enbridge's solution is to add 41 miles to reroute it, which would still have dire consequences in the event of an oil spill. A pending lawsuit by the tribe to have the line completely removed from its lands awaits a federal court decision which could halt the project entirely.Labor groups favor the jobs the Line 5 project could bring to the state, and industry and ag groups rely on the fossil fuels the pipeline transports. Environmental groups countered the risk of oil spills and damage to waterways and wildlife is paramount.Evan Feinauer, staff attorney for Clean Wisconsin, said the debate misses the bigger picture by ignoring the current climate threats and their generational consequences."I just hope that people can hold that long-term view in their heads and think about people beyond themselves, including people who are children today or not even born yet," Feinauer asserted. "Think about the world that they're going to have to inherit. And that includes all of our choices, including our mistakes." He added Clean Wisconsin will take legal action to challenge the DNR-issued permits for Line 5 and ask for construction to be paused until it is resolved. Enbridge said the rerouting project would create more than 700 jobs, many for tribal members, and provide millions in tax revenue to the state.
Phillips 66 faces federal charges, accused of polluting LA sewers with 790,000 gallons of wastewater - CBS Los Angeles -- Phillips 66, the massive U.S. oil and gas company, is facing federal charges for allegedly dumping hundreds of thousands of gallons of polluted wastewater into the Los Angeles County sewer system. A federal grand jury returned a six-count indictment this week charging the Houston-based corporation with two counts of negligently violating the Clean Water Act and four counts of knowingly violating the Clean Water Act, the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Central District of California said Thursday. The charges were filed in connection with two spills that happened within three months of each other, when federal prosecutors allege a total of 790,000 gallons of heavily polluted wastewater was dumped into LA county sewers from the company's oil processing plant in Carson. The company responded to the criminal charges in a statement to CBS News Los Angeles Thursday. "Phillips 66 will continue its cooperation with the U.S. Attorney's office and is prepared to present its case in these matters in court," Slgi Jolissaint, a spokesperson for the company, wrote in the statement. "The company remains committed to operating safely and protecting the health and safety of our employees and the communities where we operate." Last month, Phillips 66 announced it was closing the Carson facility and the rest of its refinery in the Los Angeles neighborhood of Wilmington — blaming the shutdown on market dynamics and concerns over the "long-term sustainability" of the LA refinery. The publicly traded energy giant, which reported earnings of $7 billion in 2023, could face up to $2.4 million dollars in fines and up to five years' probation on each count if convicted of all charges, according to prosecutors. On the morning of Nov. 24, 2020, about 310,000 gallons of industrial wastewater — holding roughly 64,000 pounds of oil and grease — was released into the LA sewer system, federal prosecutors allege. It contained a concentration of oil and grease that prosecutors say is more than 300 times the amount allowed in the company's permit. The next month, the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts (LACSD) issued multiple notices of violations to the company for the alleged dumping of harmful amounts of oil, accusing the company of failing to notify sanitation officials about the spill. A manager at Phillips later acknowledged the incident, prosecutors say, telling LACSD that the company would "retrain operations personnel" on how to handle such spills and how to notify the sanitation districts if and when they happen. However, less than three months later, Phillips' Carson refinery dumped another 480,000 gallons of heavily polluted industrial wastewater into the public sewage system, federal prosecutors allege. The wastewater contained at least 33,700 pounds of oil and grease, according to prosecutors, and was released into the sewer system over five and a half hours on the night of Feb. 8, 2021. After that spill, LACSD issued notices of violations to Phillips and said the oil company again failed to notify sanitation officials, prosecutors said. A Phillips manager acknowledged the violation, according to federal prosecutors, and again admitted Phillips failed to notify sanitation officials. The company is expected to be arraigned in U.S. District Court in downtown Los Angeles in the coming weeks, but the local U.S. Attorney's Office has not released a date for the court hearing. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is investigating the case.
Sable Offshore to control pipeline that caused Refugio oil spill, EDC appeals decision --Sable Offshore, a Houston-based upstream company, gained approval from the Santa Barbara County Planning Commission on Oct. 30 to restart the same pipeline that caused the 2015 Refugio oil spill. Students and local organizations protested fracking after the 2015 Refugio oil spill. Nexus file photo According to the Environmental Defense Center (EDC), a legal nonprofit organization that is appealing the decision, restarting the pipeline could double Santa Barbara County’s (SBC) greenhouse gas emissions and worsen air quality. Sable Offshore did not respond to requests for comment from the Nexus. The commission voted 3-1 to transfer the ownership and permits of Pipelines CA-324, CA-325A and CA 325B, collectively known as the Santa Ynez Unit, from natural gas company Exxon Mobil to Sable. The unit runs 122 miles from the Gaviota Coast in SBC to the Pentland Delivery Point in Kern County. On Nov. 7, the EDC filed an appeal against SBC Planning Commission’s decision, stating that the decision wasn’t supported by sufficient evidence. According to the appeal letter, the Planning Commission “misconstrued the purpose of Chapter 25B of the County Code and the scope of its review” by not making the “necessary findings” to approve the transfer. Chapter 25B deals with petroleum codes for the county. EDC Staff Attorney Jeremy Frankel said that the Santa Ynez Unit was responsible for roughly half of SBC’s greenhouse gas emissions when it was operational from 1993 to 2015. The 2014 California Air Resources Board pollution map lists the Exxon Mobil Las Flores Canyon (LFC) and Pacific Offshore Pipeline Company (POPCO) facilities as major county polluters during that year. “The idea for EDC is to prevent the restart of these really dangerous facilities that would set us back on our climate goals. But for us here on the coast, you know, [restarting the pipeline] could very well lead to another catastrophic spill. And of course, the implications of the spill are enormous,” Frankel said. According to an Environmental Impact Report draft by SBC, restarting the pipeline would likely result in a spill every two years, along with a major rupture every six years due to corrosion on the pipeline. For the pipeline to restart, Sable would have to receive county permits for the onshore processing facilities and the pipeline, a waiver from the State Fire Marshal which is also underway, permits for repair work on the pipeline’s valves from the California Coastal Commission and a decommissioning bond posted to the California Geologic Energy Management Division (CalGEM), according to Frankel. Pipeline CA-324 — which had been corroding since its construction in the 1980s — ruptured near Refugio Beach in May of 2015 under Plains All American Pipeline ownership. Despite the initial U.S. Department of Transportation Failure Investigation Report stating that roughly 123,000 gallons of oil were spilled during the 2015 incident, a UC Santa Barbara report found it was closer to 451,000 gallons. The pipeline was closed after the spill. “[The pipelines] are really at the end of their useful lives. They were projected to be operational for about 30 years back in the 80s. Now [the pipeline] is going on 40 years,” Frankel said. According to Frankel, restarting the pipeline would make it more difficult for California to reach carbon neutrality by 2045 as outlined by Executive Order B-55-18 in 2018. “There’s a clear goal to start phasing out oil and gas, essentially off the coast. So this will just be a setback to all those really important goals,” Frankel said.
Chevron working to clean up spill that dumped more than 100 gallons of oil in San Francisco Bay - Chevron says it has contained an oil spill that contaminated the San Francisco Bay at the Richmond Wharf on Thursday, and is working to clean it up.A Chevron employee reported the spill to state authorities at 5:14 a.m. The company said less than three barrels of a diesel-based liquid leaked into the bay because of a pump failure at the Richmond Long Wharf.Caitlin Powell, a Chevron spokesperson, said the company is still trying to determine the exact time the spill began. “Chevron immediately initiated its response protocol, stopped the release, and notified all applicable agencies,” the company said in a written statement Friday. “The released material is fully contained, there are no known impacts to wildlife or the shoreline, and air monitoring found no impact to the community. The safety and health of our workforce, our communities and the environment remain our highest priorities.”State regulations require that spills of hazardous materials be reported immediately to the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. The U.S. Coast Guard, Contra Costa County, California Department of Fish and Wildlife and the Richmond Fire Department responded to Thursday’s spill. Marine Spill Response Corp. has been contracted to contain and clean up the spill. Absorbent booms were put in place to absorb the oil. Coast Guard Petty Officer Hunter Schnabel said about three barrels spilled, which is roughly 130 gallons of oil. Two barrels have been recovered. “The federal on-scene coordinator and the state on-scene coordinators went to the site where the cleanup was taking place, and there was no observable sheen anymore,” Schnabel said Friday afternoon. “They had cleaned up what they could clean up, and then the rest had either dissipated or filtered away.”A little after 3 p.m. Thursday, Fish and Wildlife’s Office of Spill Prevention and Response said that it had “concluded the spill response into Richmond Wharf, but an investigation will continue.” Kristina Werner, Fish and Wildlife information officer, said that while most of the oil has already been cleaned up, the containment and absorbent measures will remain in place until they are no longer needed. She said that while no impact to wildlife or aquatic life has been found so far, the responding agencies will continue to monitor the situation.In 2021, a Chevron pipeline ruptured at the Richmond refinery, spilling nearly 800 gallons of diesel into the bay. The spill cost Chevron more than $130,000 to clean up and $70,000 in civil penalties. It left an oil sheen on the bay for three days, affecting bird and aquatic life.Last November, the refinery was slapped with four notices of violation because of a flaring event that spewed smoke for 12 hours, shrouding Richmond and parts of Marin County.Earlier this year, Chevron agreed to pay $20 million to settle fines withe Bay Area Air Quality Management District for 678 outstanding air pollution violations. Chevron is one of Richmond’s biggest polluter but also its largest taxpayer and employer, with a workforce of about 1,200 people. The city has co-existed uneasily with Chevron, which predates it. In 2012, a fire at the refinery blazed for hours, forcing thousands of people to seek treatment for breathing issues. That led to a protracted legal fight that ended in 2018, when Chevron settled with the city for $5 million, a sum many in Richmond considered low for the damage done. Recently, Chevron agreed to pay Richmond $550 million over the course of a decade, beginning next year. The company brokered the deal after the City Council had decided to put a measure on the November ballot that would have imposed a special excise tax on the refinery.
Mexico Leads Latin America Liquefaction Push as Regional LNG Capabilities Grow -Mexico is leading a push across Latin America to develop the LNG business, according to Sergio Chapa, a senior LNG analyst at Poten & Partners. “There's something of a small-scale liquefaction boom going on in Latin America right now,” said Chapa recently during the U.S.-Mexico Natural Gas Forum in San Antonio, TX. “Latin America is a very mountainous, geographically challenging region — it's not like the United States where you can build pipelines across half of the country — and if you want to get natural gas to customers, you've got to liquefy it, put it on trucks, put in ISO containers and get it to your end user.” Liquefaction capacity in Latin American and the Caribbean is currently around 21 million tons/year (Mt/y). There are three LNG exporters — Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico and Peru — in the region. Trinidad and Tobago leads with a liquefaction capacity of 15 Mt/y, followed by Peru with 4.5 Mt/y and Mexico at 1.4 Mt/y.
Mexico’s Ramping Exports, LNG Potential Adds Upward Momentum to U.S. Natural Gas Prices -Increased LNG exports and pipeline natural gas shipments to Mexico are likely to boost natural gas prices over the coming years, experts agreed this week at the U.S.-Mexico Natural Gas Forum in San Antonio. Graph showing Mexico's natural gas pipeline imports from the United States. NGI’s Henry Hub spot price hit its lowest level in 16 years on Nov. 8, dropping to $1.230/MMBtu, NGI’s Christopher Lenton, senior editor for Mexico and Latin America, said at the conference. He said the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting Henry Hub spot prices to average $2.28 in 2024, with prices seeing a boost during the final six weeks of the year as a result of colder weather. “Why has pricing been so low? Basically, production,” Lenton told attendees. “For the last two years, we’ve had a very, very stable and low price environment…and production has been very strong in the U.S.”
Mexico Energy Too Risky? Rising Protectionism in the U.S.? Experts Share Cross-Border Natural Gas Vision --Mexico and the United States have become interdependent in energy. This is part of an overall trend: Mexico is now the No.1 overall trading partner of the United States across all sectors. But how will this relationship evolve with new administrations in both nations? Experts spoke on the theme last week at the U.S.-Mexico Natural Gas Forum in San Antonio, TX. “With the Trump administration there will be a strong push to strengthen the U.S. energy sector,” said Maricarmen Barron of the Washington, DC-based Brookings Institution think tank.
Coastal GasLink Enters Commercial Service With Estimated $14.5B Price Tag -TC Energy Corp. affiliate Coastal GasLink LP has marked the pipeline system’s launch into commercial service after finalizing an agreement with LNG Canada and other customers. (Map illustrating the network of natural gas pipelines across British Columbia, highlighting key routes and infrastructure components of the Canadian energy industry.) Coastal GasLink started moving small amounts of natural gas to LNG Canada at the end of August as the export project began to near completion. TC Energy said the commercial in-service agreement for its pipeline would allow it to collect a one-time payment of $199 million for completing the system. The sprawling 416-mile, 48-inch diameter Coastal GasLink moves natural gas across British Columbia over mountainous terrain to the 14 million tons/year (Mt/y) LNG Canada facility in Kitimat on Canada’s west coast. After five years, construction was completed in 2023 for a cost of $14.5 billion, TC Energy said Tuesday. The latest price was more than triple the original estimate.
Global Natural Gas Prices Continue to Rise as Europe Measures Russian Supply Threat — LNG Recap Global natural gas prices continued a steady upward march to start the week, but avoided a drastic swing as the European market appeared to shrug off looming signs that Russian volumes through Ukraine could soon be cut. (chart showing daily U.S. LNG feed gas volumes as calculated by NGI) Over the weekend, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer disclosed that the country’s largest natural gas provider, OMV Group, would stop receiving volumes under its long-term contract with Russia’s Gazprom PJSC. In the latest tit-for-tat between the Russian energy company and its former European customers, an international arbitration court recently awarded OMV more than $243 million in damages over undelivered supplies through Germany since 2022.
Why Have LNG Freight Rates Plunged, and When Will They Come Up for Air? — Listen Now to NGI’s Hub & Flow - Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow.. Spark Commodities CEO Tim Mendelssohn joins NGI's managing editor of LNG, Jamison Cocklin, to discuss how bearish market fundamentals have been driving down freight rates for LNG cargoes. A “massive vessel oversupply,” combined with delays in U.S. LNG export projects, has pushed freight rates well below market expectations. Mendelssohn explains why these rates could remain low for the foreseeable future and explores the potential implications for the LNG shipping market as new export facilities come online in the years to come. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies and communities, NGI, which publishes daily, weekly and monthly natural gas indexes at pricing locations across North America, works to provide natural gas price transparency for the Americas. NGI’s Hub & Flow podcast is a part of that effort
LNG tankers divert to Europe from Asia after Russia halts supplies to Austria's OMV - At least five cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) have diverted from Asia to Europe in the past few days, drawn by higher gas prices on the continent after Russia's Gazprom halted supplies to Austria's OMV, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. On Saturday Gazprom halted supplies to top Austrian gas importer OMV after OMV threatened to impound some of the Russian state firm's gas as compensation for an arbitration it had won over a contractual dispute. Gazprom notified OMV of the planned halt on Friday, causing European gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub to surge, making it more profitable to send gas to Europe rather than Asia. "The JKM-TTF spread flipped into negative territory last week amid Russian pipeline gas supply concerns and an upcoming cold spell, which saw traders divert LNG cargoes away from Asia and towards Europe," said Laura Page, manager of gas and LNG insight at Kpler. The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub was trading at €46 per megawatt hour on Monday, or $14.49 per MMBtu, the highest level since Nov. 23, 2023. The Asian benchmark Japan Korea Marker (JKM) was trading at around $14/MMBtu, LSEG data showed. Vivert City LNG tanker, which loaded a cargo from Equatorial Guinea and was heading to Bangladesh, diverted on Friday and is now heading towards Britain's South Hook terminal. Gaslog Windsor tanker, which had a cargo loaded with U.S. LNG from Sabine Pass that was initially headed to China, changed its destination on Friday towards Britain's Isle of Grain terminal. BW Lesmes tanker had a cargo loaded form Nigeria and was initially headed to China but changed direction towards Britain's Isle of Grain. "One of the main reasons ships are switching to the UK, though, is likely that the UK's terminals weren't so busy as some of the main Continental terminals, meaning there were more spare unloading slots for traders to access when they decided to divert Asian cargoes to Europe," said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS. The Diamond Gas Crystal, originally headed to South Korea, has switched back and is now heading to the Dutch Gate terminal. The Flex Vigilant tanker has diverted from China and is now headed to Europe, awaiting orders. Russian gas exports through Ukraine to Europe - the main transit route for Russian gas to the EU - were stable on Monday, according to Gazprom. Ukraine has said it will not extend a gas transit deal with Russia once a five-year agreement expires at the end of the year.
U.S. LNG exports primed to jump as price arb to Europe opens wide -- United States exports of LNG to Europe are set to jump in the coming weeks after the price spread between domestic natural gas and Europe's main gas pricing hub hit one-year highs. The price differential between U.S. Henry Hub natural gas futures - the U.S. gas price benchmark - and the TTF gas trading facility in The Netherlands has widened by over 30% from the current 2024 average for delivery during the coming winter. That's signaling bumper profit potential for U.S. exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), who are increasing the volumes of gas flows to export facilities. The increased LNG shipments to Europe will trigger a revenue rise for the largest U.S. LNG exporters, including Cheniere LNG, TotalEnergies and Freeport LNG. But higher demand for natural gas at LNG export terminals also raises the potential for a further climb in U.S. domestic gas prices, which are already at their highest since January. That means that while U.S. LNG exporters have a strong opportunity to boost revenues, they also face the risk of reviving inflation and triggering a backlash against the export of energy products needed for power generation at home. U.S. natural gas prices are currently around 80% lower than TTF prices, giving LNG exporters the opportunity to profit from the wide price differential between the gas grades. So far in 2024, Henry Hub gas futures have averaged around $8 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) less than TTF gas futures, according to LSEG. That price differential in favor of U.S. suppliers has encouraged sustained U.S. LNG exports to Europe, which have totaled around 82 MMm3 over the first 10 months of the year, according to Kpler. However, an even wider price spread is projected through the coming winter which looks set to spur even larger shipments. Forward markets from November through the end of March 2025 indicate that the Henry Hub-TTF price spread is roughly $11 per MMBtu. That's a $3 increase over the 2024 average so far, and a strong incentive for U.S. exporters to boost shipments further. Europe has bought over two-thirds of U.S. LNG shipments since 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered cuts to Russian gas pipeline flows to Europe and sparked a scramble by European gas buyers to plug supply gaps with LNG. And U.S. LNG exporters are keen to maintain market share in Europe as the cost of serving European buyers is far lower compared to customers in Asia, due to far longer journey times to buyers in Japan, China and South Korea. The roughly 12-day trip from Cove Point LNG terminal in Maryland to Wilhelmshaven in Germany - a major European LNG import hub - is a third of the time of the trip to Guangdong in China, the world's largest LNG buyer. That relatively quick turnaround time means U.S. exporters will prefer to prioritize Europe over other destinations over the coming months. However, Europe's relatively strong gas prices means the continent is also prized by other sellers. LSEG forward price data indicates that TTF prices are around $2 per MMBtu higher than LNG prices based off Brent-indexed LNG contracts, which utilize the price of Brent crude oil in formulating LNG prices. That price premium in Europe has already triggered traders to divert some cargoes from other markets, with the aim of capturing the higher prices available in Europe compared to other regions. Any sustained price strength in Europe relative to other markets will spur traders with unsold cargoes from Qatar and elsewhere to focus on finding buyers in Europe. That in turn will provide stiff competition for U.S. exporters, even if U.S. sail times to Europe are roughly a week shorter compared to shipments from Qatar. However, more competition for buyers in Europe will in time serve to depress European prices, which should then erode the economics of sending LNG to Europe from distant origins. That bodes well for U.S. exporters, as long as domestic gas prices remain vastly cheaper than gas supplies in other LNG export hubs. The main risk for U.S. LNG exporters is that domestic gas prices quickly push higher, which could be triggered by the enduring strong gas demand at LNG export terminals alongside a sharp increase in domestic gas use for heating. Such a scenario could spark backlash among U.S. power consumers, who are already reeling from high inflation and could push for measures that slow the flow of U.S. natural gas to overseas consumers. That means U.S. LNG sellers may be need to be content to exploit the current open sales window to Europe, and then dial back sales volumes if domestic prices gather more upside momentum.
Egypt Seeking Long-Term LNG Deals With U.S. Companies Egypt is currently in talks with U.S. and other foreign companies to purchase long-term volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) instead of relying on the more costly spot market, according to an exclusive Reuters report, as the country’s gas production continues to decline."The ministry (of Petroleum) is seeking three or four years of supply to hedge from sudden price increases. It is also seeking to include a flexibility clause as the government hopes it could maybe find gas sooner or doesn't need that much gas," an industry source has toldReuters.Two years ago, Egypt, the European Union, and Israel signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to boost natural gas exports to Europe, with the framework hailed as the first to allow Israel to export "significant" amounts of gas to Europe. Over the past two years, Egypt has become a significant supplier of LNG to Europe. Since 2022, the North African nation has shipped 84 cargoes of LNG to the Netherlands, Spain, the UK, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Poland and France.According to Egypt’s Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla, Egypt’s two liquefaction plants have plenty of spare capacity with the LNG plants operating at less than full capacity, "They are there prepared for the time when we make the decision to increase their capacity to double or triple," he told Reuters. Unfortunately, rising domestic demand as well as infrastructure constraints limit Egypt’s ability to quickly ramp up output.Egypt has been juggling with competing interests, trying to supply more gas to its domestic market but also attempting to increase exports in a bid to ease an acute dollar shortage. Further, how much gas Egypt can actually supply to Europe depends to a large extent on how much Israeli gas is delivered by pipeline to liquefaction plants on Egypt's Mediterranean coast before being shipped to Europe. Indeed, officials have conceded that any significant expansion in export capacity will take time with existing plants needing modifications while new production chains might need to be constructed.
Outage Forces Part of BP’s Indonesia LNG Plant Offline -An outage has forced the third train of BP’s Tangguh LNG project offline, Indonesia’s upstream regulator said on Thursday, amid rising LNG demand as Europe and Asia stock up for the winter.A trip at the third train at BP’s facility in West Papua occurred earlier this week, with operations due to restart from Saturday, Hudi Suryodipuro, a spokesperson for Indonesian regulator SKK Migas, told Reuters on Thursday.“After repairs by the BP team and startup was carried out, a leak was found in the actuator which required repair and replacement of parts,” the spokesperson told Reuters.The third train of Tangguh LNG has a processing capacity of 3.8 million metric tons per year and was commissioned in the summer of 2023. The first cargo from Tangguh Train 3was shipped in the autumn of last year.In February this year, Train 3 at Tangguh LNGwas offline for about a week, due to a broken component which had to be replaced.Tangguh LNG is a unitized development of six gas fields located in the Wiriagar, Berau, and Muturi Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) in Bintuni Bay in Indonesia.The outage at the Indonesian plant comes just as the northern hemisphere is preparing for the winter and demand for LNG is rising.In recent days, nearly a dozen LNG cargoes are said to have been diverted away from Asia and Egypt to Europe, where the benchmark natural gas price is at a premium compared to Asian spot LNG prices.European gas prices have jumped to the highest in a year, with the start of the winter heating season, a massive lull in wind speeds in northwestern Europe, a contractual dispute between Austria’s OMV and Russia’s Gazprom, and the end of the gas transit deal via Ukraine which expires on December 31, 2024. Ukraine has said that it would not pursue talks about renewing the agreement with Russia.
Russian gas flows to EU via Ukraine unchanged despite Austria row - Russia's natural gas exports through Ukraine to Europe have been stable on Thursday, Kremlin-controlled gas giant Gazprom said, despite a contractual row with Austrian energy company OMV. Gazprom said it would send 42.4 MMm3 of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Thursday, the same volume it has shipped each day since Nov. 12. Russia's Gazprom halted supply to OMV on Saturday over a contractual dispute, the Vienna-based company said. It is still not clear where the gas volumes intended for OMV have been redirected. Data from transmission system operator Eustream showed that nominations, or requests, for flows to Austria from Slovakia were stable from the previous two days, but about 12% below levels seen in November before Russia halted gas supply to OMV. Nominations to the Czech Republic from Slovakia were in line with levels seen this month. Nominations into Slovakia from Ukraine were steady versus previous days on Thursday, and those for flows leaving Slovakia were also little changed, the data showed.
Ukraine prepares to end transit of Russian natural gas - Ukraine is preparing to completely end the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe as of January 1, 2025. A previous agreement that had allowed for the movement of the energy resource, albeit at a drastically reduced volume, through Ukraine’s pipelines is coming to an end. According to Energynews, Russian gas flows to Europe via its western neighbor had already dropped “from 117 billion cubic meters in 2008 to just 14.65 billion in 2023, underscoring the decline of this historical corridor.” Currently, the only active metering station of Russian gas to Ukrainian pipelines, which is located in Sudzha on Moscow’s side of the border, was taken by Kiev’s forces during Zelensky’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August. On November 10, Spain’s El Pais reported that Ukraine’s military is prioritizing holding onto the territory, where it stationed two of its “best regiments,” the 95th and 80th airborne assault brigades. They are outfitted with the high-tech equipment, including German Leopard and American Abrams tanks. Meanwhile, Russian forces are continuing to advance in the Donbass region, where the Ukrainian military is facing manpower and ammunition shortages, and also working to dislodge Zelensky’s military from Kursk. Whatever the outcome at the Sudzha metering station, the official end of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe underlines the fact that the war is part of a metastasizing global conflict. One of the goals of the US—to weaken Russia as a major energy supplier to European markets through the complete decoupling of its infrastructure from Ukraine—poses dangers to Europe and threatens the eruption of open conflict within the trans-Atlantic alliance. As a result of the ending of the gas deal, Russia stands to lose $6.5 billion unless it can redirect its exports to other markets. Ukraine could see .5 percent of its GDP shaved off by totally ending its role as a transit route. The European think-tank Bruegel also noted recently that the end of the contract would open Ukrainian pipelines to targeting by Moscow’s forces. They have thus far been left undamaged due to the flow of Russian gas through them. Much of Ukraine’s electrical and power infrastructure has been crippled by the war. Last week, Zelensky’s government announced that it was imposing rolling blackouts throughout the country as winter approaches, in order to preserve what remains of the country’s power grid. Russia has offered to continue sending natural gas to Europe through Ukraine, provided a separate agreement is negotiated between Kiev and the destination countries. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters on November 6 in Sochi, “Of course, in my opinion, the European countries that currently receive gas through this corridor are interested in continuing such cooperation. “We are ready to supply (gas), but not much depends on us, so probably this should be negotiated directly between the users and the country through which the transit is provided,” Novak explained. Earlier in October, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal ruled out an extension of the current gas transit agreement during a meeting with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico in Western Ukraine. “Ukraine once again says it will not continue the transit agreement with Russia after it expires,” Shmyhal told reporters, adding, “Ukraine’s strategic goal is to deprive the Kremlin of profits from the sale of hydrocarbons which the aggressor uses to finance the war.”
Russia's Yamal LNG resumes ship-to-ship transfers near Murmansk --Russia's Yamal LNG project resumed ship-to-ship transfer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) near the port of Murmansk in order to free up ice-class tankers, according to LSEG data. The scheme is used during the winter season, which has just started, when the movement of conventional vessels along the Northern Sea route is restricted by thick ice. LSEG data showed that an ice class Arc 7 tanker called Nikolay Urvantsev was readying to transfer LNG to a conventional gas carrier Wen Cheng near the island of Kildin in the Barents Sea for further exports. Wen Cheng was built in 2023 at Chinese shipyard Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding.
Russia Crude Exports Tumble To Two Month Low - Russian crude oil shipments dropped to a two-month low as loadings from Russia’s Western ports slumped, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday. In the four weeks to November 17, Russian crude oil exports by sea dipped to 3.28 million barrels per day (bpd), down by 150,000 bpd compared to the previous four-week average to November 10, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee. The decline in exports was the biggest since the end of July. Daily crude flows in the week to Nov. 17 slumped by about 740,000 barrels to 2.83 million, dropping to their lowest since the first seven days of July. The decline was driven by lower flows from the country’s Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic ports, while shipments from the Pacific remained unchanged. A total of 26 tankers loaded 19.8 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Nov. 17, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down sharply from a revised 24.98 million barrels on 32 ships the previous week. The weekly decline was mostly the result of a 30% slump in shipments from Russia’s export terminals on the Baltic and Black Seas. It could have been the result of increased refining rates in the second week of November, which left lower volumes of crude available for exports, according to Bloomberg. In October, as available refinery capacity in Russia dipped, crude oil shipments hit a four-month high, as heavy domestic refinery maintenance left more crude available for export. Russia exported on average 3.47 million bpd of crude in the four weeks to October 20, up by 140,000 bpd compared to the four-week average to October 13, Bloomberg data showed at the time.
Russia gives North Korea a million barrels of oil, report finds - Russia is estimated to have supplied North Korea with more than a million barrels of oil since March this year, according to satellite imagery analysis from the Open Source Centre, a non-profit research group based in the UK.The oil is payment for the weapons and troops Pyongyang has sent Moscow to fuel its war in Ukraine, leading experts and UK Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, have told the BBC.These transfers violate UN sanctions, which ban countries from selling oil to North Korea, except in small quantities, in an attempt to stifle its economy to prevent it from further developing nuclear weapons.The satellite images, shared exclusively with the BBC, show more than a dozen different North Korean oil tankers arriving at an oil terminal in Russia’s Far East a total of 43 times over the past eight months.Further pictures, taken of the ships at sea, appear to show the tankers arriving empty, and leaving almost full.North Korea is the only country in the world not allowed to buy oil on the open market. The number of barrels of refined petroleum it can receive is capped by the United Nations at 500,000 annually, well below the amount it needs.Russia’s foreign ministry did not respond to our request for comment. The first oil transfer documented by the Open Source Centre in a new report, was on 7 March 2024, seven months after it first emerged Pyongyang was sending Moscow weapons.The shipments have continued as thousands of North Korean troops are reported to have been sent to Russia to fight, with the last one recorded on 5 November.“While Kim Jong Un is providing Vladimir Putin with a lifeline to continue his war, Russia is quietly providing North Korea with a lifeline of its own,” says Joe Byrne from the Open Source Centre.“This steady flow of oil gives North Korea a level of stability it hasn’t had since these sanctions were introduced.”Four former members of a UN panel responsible for tracking the sanctions on North Korea have told the BBC the transfers are a consequence of increasing ties between Moscow and Pyongyang.“These transfers are fuelling Putin’s war machine – this is oil for missiles, oil for artillery and now oil for soldiers,” says Hugh Griffiths, who led the panel from 2014 to 2019.UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy has told the BBC in a statement: “To keep fighting in Ukraine, Russia has become increasingly reliant on North Korea for troops and weapons in exchange for oil."He added that this was “having a direct impact on security in the Korean peninsula, Europe and Indo-Pacific".
India unlikely to reduce crude oil cargoes from Russia under Trump administration - India is unlikely to cut back on its crude oil sourcing from Russia under the Trump administration owing to the healthy price arbitrage of procuring barrels from the erstwhile Soviet Union. “India is unlikely to trim its purchases of Russian crude under a new Donald Trump government, though it might explore more term import contracts and collaboration on storage with the US,” S&P Global Commodity Insights. Russia accounts for roughly 38-40 per cent of India’s cumulative crude oil imports. The South Asian country, which imports as much as 85 per cent of its needs, has pledged to continue buying oil from the cheapest available sources to meet its growing demand, and Russian oil falls in that category due to attractive discounts, S&P added. “India has been taking a stand to buy cheaper crude wherever available, and I don’t foresee the US offering their typical crude priced lower than Russian oil. Hence a drastic shift is less likely,” said Abhishek Ranjan, South Asia oil research lead at S&P Global Commodity Insights. The average discount of Russian Urals to Dated Brent was $12.129 per barrel in August, $12.30 in September and $12.189 in October, fluctuating within a narrow range, according to Platts, which is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights. “A few years ago, India held discussions with the US to cooperate on emergency crude oil reserves, which included the possibility of buying and storing US oil in US strategic petroleum reserves, and shipping it to India, when necessary, but that plan has not moved forward,” S&P projected. S&P Global Commodity Insights pointed out that the share of the US in India’s crude oil imports have been declining. In January-September 2024, India’s imports of Russian crude averaged 1.7 million barrels per day (mb/d), making the non-OPEC producer the country’s biggest supplier. The US was the fifth-largest supplier, accounting for 215,000 barrels per day (b/d) in the same nine-month period, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea (CAS). The US crude share in India rose to as high as 15 per cent in the first quarter of 2021. The majority of US crude exports to India consisted of light grades, predominantly WTI, with nearly 50 per cent previously discharged for Reliance Industries until 2021. However, since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, purchases from the US have fallen behind, as Russian crude now accounts for over 40 per cent of India’s imports, according to data from CAS. Commodity Insights expects the US share of India’s total crude imports to maintain a range of 5-6 per cent in the near term, as US crude has solidified its presence in Europe. The recent availability of cheap Russian crude has shifted the dynamics away from the US grades. Notably, the Reliance refinery, along with many other Indian refineries, possesses a high complexity index, allowing a relatively easy transition between these crude grades. As a result, the shift from US grades to Russian grades was relatively easy, Ranjan said. “However, India may revert back to increasing its imports from the US, should sanctions on Russian crude tighten or the price dynamics favour US crudes, although this appears less likely in our base case,” he added. Commodity Insights expects Platts Dated Brent to average $81 per barrel in 2024, but the market remains volatile at present. Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East and other uncertainties, Commodity Insights sees an easing of Platts Dated Brent to the lower $70 b/d in 2025, owing to expected production increases from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+, coupled with a subdued global oil demand growth.
Egypt's fuel imports reaches $12.5B during period from January to October 2024 – EgyptToday - Egypt’s fuel imports reached over $12.5 billion during the first ten months of this year, up from $10.5 billion in the same period last year, a 19 percent increase, according to a government official speaking to Al Arabiya Business. The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) secured fuel imports worth nearly $2 billion in October alone to meet market demands for petroleum products across various sectors. From January to October, petroleum products accounted for approximately $7 billion of the total import cost, with the remaining amount covering crude oil, fuel oil, coal, and other imports for the petroleum and gas sectors. The Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources plans to delay part of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) and fuel oil imports scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year, rescheduling delivery for the first quarter of 2025. Fuel imports currently represent 30-35 percent of Egypt’s petroleum product consumption. The Ministry aims to reduce this share starting in 2025 by relying more on local production. To support this goal, the Ministry secures fuel needs through direct external contracts, including spot, medium-term, and annual agreements. To further bolster the sector, the Ministry recently introduced a range of incentives for international oil companies operating in Egypt, encouraging new investments to overcome challenges, accelerate development, and boost oil and gas production for the benefit of all stakeholders.
Deepwater Discoveries Set To Reshape Africa's Energy Landscape - Africa's deepwater oil and gas production is expected to increase significantly in the coming decade, driven by new discoveries and projects. Recent successes in Namibia and Cote d'Ivoire have spurred interest in deepwater exploration across the continent. Challenges such as security concerns and fiscal incentives need to be addressed to fully unlock Africa's deepwater potential. Africa’s deepwater segment has always played a key role in terms of adding significant discovered volumes, which has helped Africa sustain its hydrocarbon production. The contribution of this segment in Africa’s hydrocarbon production mix was between 20- 25% last decade and is expected to increase between 35-40% by 2035. From the under-construction and pre-FID projects, Rystad Energy estimates that there will be about 3.5 million boepd of new deepwater supply (pre-FID and under-construction projects) in Africa by 2035. Success in countries such as Namibia and Cote d’Ivoire have triggered substantial interest in exploring the deep waters, and many more countries such as Sao Tome & Principe, Liberia and Sierra Leone are also becoming important countries for companies to secure acreages for exploration efforts in the medium and long term. In terms of deepwater resource sanctioning, Africa saw a surge in sanctioning between 2015 and 2019 on a rolling 5-year period, as various discoveries, such as Eni’s Zohr in Egypt and TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project, expected to produce from Golfinho and Atum discoveries in Area 1, in Mozambique were sanctioned. Post-COVID-19, the continent has had a muted period of deepwater sanctioning activity, with the average annual deepwater resources sanctioned between 2015-19 dropping to about 330 million boe, compared to an annual average of close to 1890 million boe in 2015-19. However, thanks to the recent success in Namibia and progress in other discovered projects such as Area 4 in Mozambique, further phases of Baleine development in Cote d’Ivoire, and several projects in Nigeria, Africa is at the cusp of a new wave of deepwater sanctioning activity. If project timelines follow through, Africa could see annual average deepwater resource sanctioning activity surpassing 2 billion boe in the 2025-29 period. The continent hosts the potential to take the number above 3 billion boe. However, such projects would probably need more fiscal incentives and, in some cases, an improvement in the security situation for associated facilities onshore. Further, prioritization by Majors of the most lucrative projects in their portfolios, as they plan for an uncertain future, would also define the trajectory of such projects. However, some of the gas projects can be secured further by advancing various gas-to-power projects within the continent, such that electricity access rates also improve significantly.
Iraq’s oil exports decline in October - (IraqiNews.com) – Under pressure from OPEC to reduce output in accordance with its quota of 3.905 million barrels per day, including anticipated compensation, Iraq’s oil exports declined for the second month in a row. Data from Iraq Gulf Terminals revealed that OPEC’s second-largest producer delivered 3.24 million barrels of oil per day in October, mostly to China and India, a 3.28 percent decline on a monthly basis, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. According to the most recent Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights, Iraq’s oil output in October was 4.14 million barrels per day, lower than September levels but still over its OPEC+ limit of 3.905 million barrels per day. Last month, 41 percent of Iraq’s seaborne exports, or 1.34 million barrels per day, were shipped to China, which purchased 34.03 million barrels of medium crude and 7.7 million barrels of heavy crude. During the same period, 28 percent of Iraq’s oil exports were shipped to India, which imported 16.27 million barrels of heavy crude and 11.95 million barrels of medium crude. China has made significant investments in the Gulf States to meet its domestic energy demands and is often among the largest consumers of Iraqi crude. In October, Iraq’s oil exports to the US, Greece, Italy, South Korea, and Turkey declined on a monthly basis.
India’s Petroleum Imports Rise 7.7% in FY 2024-25 - India's petroleum imports grew by 7.7% during April-October FY 2024-25, driven by increased demand for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petcoke, and lubricants, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). However, October 2024 recorded a slight 2.2% dip in imports compared to the same month last year. Crude oil imports rose by 3.5% in the first seven months of FY 2024-25 and by 4.2% in October 2024 year-on-year. The net import bill for October 2024 stood at $10.6 billion, down from $11.8 billion in October 2023, thanks to reduced global crude prices, which averaged $75.66 per barrel in October 2024 compared to $91.05 a year earlier. Domestic Crude Production and Refinery Output Domestic crude oil production continued to face challenges, declining by 4.9% year-on-year in October 2024 to 2.4 million metric tons (MMT). Oil India Limited (OIL) contributed 0.3 MMT.. ONGC produced 1.6 MMT, and private operators added 0.5 MMT. In contrast, Indian refineries processed 21.3 MMT of crude in October 2024, a 3.6% increase from the previous year. Public Sector Units handled 14.1 MMT, while private refiners processed 7.2 MMT. Cumulative crude processing during April-October FY 2024-25 rose by 2%.Petroleum Production and Consumption Petroleum product output in October 2024 climbed 5.2% year-on-year to 23 MMT, led by diesel, which accounted for 41% of production. Motor spirit (16.8%), aviation turbine fuel (6.6%), and LPG (4.5%) were other key contributors.
China crude oil imports set for November rebound, but it's price not demand (Reuters) - China's crude imports are on track to rebound in November to the highest in three months, but the increasing appetite of the world's largest oil importer is more about price than rising demand. Crude oil arrivals may reach around 11.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, the most since August and the third-highest month so far in 2024, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler and LSEG Oil Research. If the final outcome for November is in line with the forecasts, it will be the highest monthly imports since August's official figure of 11.56 million bpd, and the third-strongest month so far this year. However, assuming the increase in crude imports is because of a recovery in demand may be optimistic, given China's refinery throughput remains weak and economic indicators continue to show the world's second-biggest economy is struggling for growth momentum. More likely the increase in November imports is down to price, with refiners taking advantage of the weakening prices at a time when cargoes arriving this month would have been arranged. Global benchmark Brent crude futures dropped to their lowest level for 33 months in early September, trading as low as $68.68 a barrel on Sept. 10. The price had been trending lower since early July, when it reached as high as $87.95 a barrel amid rising tensions in the Middle East and the decision by the OPEC+ group of exporters to defer a planned increase in production. The lag between when cargoes are bought and physically delivered to China ranges from about six weeks to three months, depending on where the oil is sourced from. This means that crude arriving in November was secured at a time when oil prices were hitting the lowest levels in almost three years. China's refiners have in the past shown that they will buy more crude than they need when they deem prices to be low, and cut back on imports when they view prices as having risen too high, or gained too rapidly. This dynamic has been apparent in China's imports of crude oil so far in 2024, with arrivals declining by 420,000 bpd in the first 10 months of the year, with much of the weakness coming after crude prices rallied strongly in the second quarter. Since the September low crude prices have recovered somewhat, reaching above $80 a barrel in early October before settling into a range largely between $70 and $75, ending at $73.10 on Wednesday. The steady prices may suggest that Chinese refiners will be happy to buy crude volumes sufficient to meet their needs, rather than purchase surplus oil to store for later processing. However, the election of Donald Trump to a second term as U.S. president may alter the calculations of Chinese buyers, especially those who purchase Iranian crude.
Aramco to Take on More Debt, Says CFO -- Saudi Arabian Oil Co. plans to take on more debt and will focus on “value and growth” for its dividend, the company’s finance chief said. “You’ll see us do a couple of things. One is, just take on more debt compared to use of equity,” Chief Financial Officer Ziad Al-Murshed said in an interview in Boston. “It’s nothing to do with the dividend, it is optimizing our capital structure so that we end up with a lower weighted average cost of capital.” Saudi Aramco tapped debt investors earlier this year when it sold $6 billion of dollar-denominated bonds in June, followed by about $3 billion of Islamic dollar notes in September. The company had been absent from the debt markets since 2021. “We had the luxury of sitting out those three years until the market became conducive,” Al-Murshed said. The state-owned oil producer is a vital component of the Saudi Arabian economy, with its crude sales and generous payouts helping fund Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s multitrillion-dollar spending plans. However, it’s been hit by a slump in crude prices this year, while its oil production is near the lowest level in three years. Saudi Aramco increased its dividend by 4 percent in each of the past two years, and is now paying more than $81 billion of base dividends, Al-Murshed said. “We’re looking for it to be progressive over the years,” he said, adding that the company’s free cash flow covers that. The company’s debt sales will be “regular but not too frequent,” its CFO said, adding that it has no plans to sell more debt for the remainder of 2024. “We want to be active, but we don’t want to be too active,” he said. One reason for the company to sell debt will be to widen its investor base, he said. Al-Murshed didn’t specify whether Saudi Aramco would borrow to support its dividend spending, which is set to hit $124 billion this year, exceeding earnings. That resulted in Saudi Aramco recording a net debt position in the third quarter, the first time since the third quarter of 2022. Just a year ago, the firm had over $27 billion in net cash. Its dividend is made up of two parts — a base payment of $20.3 billion a quarter that takes up about 95% of free cash flow, and a performance-linked portion that is set at $10.8 billion each quarter this year. From next year onward, the special component is set to be paid as a percentage of residual free cash flow after spending on dividends and investments, CFO Al-Murshed said. “When we close the books for 2024, we’ll plug in that formula and whatever the number is, we will aim to distribute that,” he said. Saudi Aramco’s gearing ratio — or net debt to equity — of about 2 percent is low compared to peers. The company isn’t targeting a specific ratio, Al-Murshed said. “You’ll see our gearing ratio go up and come down across the cycles,” he said.
Crude oil gains on escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict - The Hindu BusinessLine -- Crude oil futures traded higher on Monday morning due to the increase in tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At 9.37 am on Monday, January Brent oil futures were at $71.39, up by 0.49 per cent, and January crude oil futures on WTI (West Texas Intermediate) were at $67.24, up by 0.48 per cent.November crude oil futures were trading at ₹5676 on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹5669, up by 0.12 per cent, and December futures were trading at ₹5700 against the previous close of ₹5679, up by 0.37 per cent.On Sunday, Russia launched missile and drone strikes on Ukraine. Quoting officials, a Reuters report said Russia attacked Ukraine with 120 missiles and 90 drones killing at least seven people. This attack damaged the power system in Ukraine, it said. Meanwhile, another Reuters report said that the US has allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike Russia. Quoting sources, it said Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days. However, the sources did not reveal details due to operational security concerns.Sunday’s strikes on Ukraine and reports of US allowing Ukraine to use US-made weapons have raised concerns over possible crude oil supply disruptions from the area. Russia is one of the major producers of crude oil in the global market.The recent reports of decline in China’s refinery throughput limited further increase in the price of the commodity. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China, refiners in that country processed around 14.02 million barrels a day of crude oil in October 2024 against 15.05 million barrels a day in October 2023. China had processed 14.3 million barrels a day of crude oil in September 2024.China is a major consumer of crude oil in the global market. Decline in demand for the commodity in this country makes an impact on its prices. November natural gas futures were trading at ₹247.30 on MCX during the initial hour of trading on Monday against the previous close of ₹237.50, up by 4.13 per cent.
News of a Halted Oil Output at Norway's Johan Sverdrup Oilfield - The oil market rallied higher on Monday as Russia’s war in Ukraine escalated over the weekend and news of halted oil output at Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield. The crude market posted an outside trading day as it posted a low of $66.61 on the opening and remained well supported throughout the session as it rallied to a high of $69.39 in the afternoon. The market bounced off its low amid a reversal in the U.S.’ policy that will allow Ukraine to use U.S. made weapons to strike in Russia. The Kremlin said that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by U.S. President Biden’s administration. The market extended its gains further following the news that Equinor halted output from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield due to an onshore power outage. The market extended its gains to $2.37 as it rallied to a high of $69.39 ahead of the close. The December WTI contract settled up $2.14 at $69.16 and the January WTI contract settled up $2.25 at $69.17. The December/January WTI spread flipped into contango for the first time since February as WTI for January delivery traded above the December contract, signaling an oversupply. Meanwhile, the Brent contract settled up $2.26 at $73.30. The product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 8.05 cents at $2.2514 and the RB market settling up 6.9 cents at $2.0183. U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration has lifted restrictions that had blocked Ukraine from using U.S.-provided weapons to strike in Russian territory, in a significant change to U.S. policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Sources said Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days. The change follows Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv. Meanwhile, the Kremlin said that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by President Biden’s administration to allow Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russia, which it said would draw the United States directly into the conflict. Russia has been warning the West for months about how it would interpret such a decision, saying it would raise the risk of a confrontation with the U.S.-led NATO alliance.Equinor halted the output from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield due to a power outage. An Equinor spokesperson said work was underway to re-establish production but it was not immediately clear when it would resume. The outage was caused by smoke developing in an onshore electricity converter station which sends power to phase 1 of the Johan Sverdrup development.Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative showed that Saudi Arabia’s oil production fell to 8.975 million bpd in September from 8.992 million bpd in August. It also reported that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports in September increased to 5.751 million bpd from 5.671 million bpd in August.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in about 291,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 22nd, raising available refining capacity by 316,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 170,000 bpd in the week ending November 29th.Citgo Petroleum Corp reported operating conditions have made flaring necessary at the 165,000 bpd Corpus Christi East plant in Texas.
Oil prices rise over 3% on Sverdrup outage, Ukraine war escalation - (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed more than $2 a barrel on Monday after news that crude production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield had been halted, which added to earlier gains stemming from escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. Brent crude futures settled at $73.30 a barrel, gaining $2.26, or 3.2%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $69.16 a barrel, rising $2.14, or 3.2%.Equinor said it had halted output from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield, western Europe's largest, due to an onshore power outage. Work to restart production was under way, an Equinor spokesperson said, but it was not immediately clear when it would resume.Oil prices extended their gains on the outage news, which indicated a possible tightening of the North Sea crude market, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters. Physical supply of crude oil from the North Sea underpins the Brent futures complex.Kazakhstan's biggest oil field Tengiz, operated by U.S. major Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab, has reduced oil output by 28%-30% due to ongoing repairs, helping to further tighten global supplies. Repairs were expected to be complete by Saturday, the country's energy ministry said.Prices also climbed as Russia's war in Ukraine escalated over the weekend.In a significant reversal of Washington's policy, President Joe Biden's administration allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two U.S. officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday.The Kremlin said on Monday that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by Biden's administration, having previously warned that such a decision would raise the risk of a confrontation with the U.S.-led NATO alliance."Biden allowing Ukraine to strike Russian forces around Kursk with long-range missiles might see a geopolitical bid come back into oil, as it is an escalation of tensions there in response to North Korean troops entering the fray," IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore said.There has been little impact on Russian oil exports so far, however oil prices could rise further if Ukraine targets more oil infrastructure, said Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee.Russia unleashed its largest airstrike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to the country's power system.Brent and WTI fell more than 3% last week due to weak data on China's refinery run rates, and after the International Energy Agency forecast that global oil supply would exceed demand by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025, even if output cuts remain in place from OPEC+.Traders began shifting WTI trades to the January contract ahead of the expiration of the December contract on Wednesday. The spread between the two contracts flipped for the first time since February into a contango structure, where the later contract traded higher than the front-month contract, meaning traders expected price to rise.
Oil prices ease, caution prevails over Russia-Ukraine war Oil prices retreated on Tuesday after the previous day's rally driven by halted production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, but investors remained cautious amid fears of a potential escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Brent crude futures for January delivery slipped 7 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $73.37 a barrel by 0119 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December delivery were at $69.23 a barrel, down 7 cents, or 0.1 per cent. The more active WTI January contract fell 4 cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $69.21, reports Reuters. Both benchmarks climbed more than $2 a barrel on Monday. "Some position adjustments kicked in after Monday's rally," said Toshitaka Tazawa, an analyst at Fujitomi Securities. "But investors stayed wary, assessing the direction of the Russia-Ukraine war after the weekend's escalation," he said. Russia unleashed its largest airstrike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to the country's power system. In a significant reversal of Washington's policy, President Joe Biden's administration allowed Ukraine to use US-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two US officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday. The Kremlin said on Monday that Russia would respond to what it called a reckless decision by the Biden administration, having previously warned that such a decision would raise the risk of a confrontation with the US-led NATO alliance. Meanwhile, supply concerns persisted due to production issues at some oilfields. Norway's Equinor halted output from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield, Western Europe's largest, due to an onshore power outage, the company said on Monday. Work to restart production was underway, an Equinor spokesperson said, but it was not immediately clear when it would resume. Kazakhstan's biggest oil field Tengiz, operated by US major Chevron, has reduced oil output by 28% to 30% due to ongoing repairs, helping to further tighten global supplies. Repairs were expected to be complete by Saturday, the country's energy ministry said. Traders began shifting WTI trades to the January contract ahead of the expiration of the December contract on Wednesday. WTI flipped to contango for the first time since February on Monday, with January delivery trading at a premium to the December contract in a sign that supply tightness was easing.
Oil Slides On UN Report Stating Iran Agrees To Halt Near Bomb-Grade Uranium Production --Oil prices are falling Tuesday on the headline that Iran has agreed to cease producing uranium which is enriched at near nuclear bomb grade levels. Israeli and Western officials have long been worried that the more than year-long Gaza war, alongside the recent-tit-for-tat missile exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv, have accelerated the Islamic Republic's push to achieve a nuke. "Iran began enriching uranium at up to 60% levels in 2021," Bloomberg reviews of what has put UN inspectors on edge. "That material could quickly be upgraded to the 90% level typically used in nuclear weapons, prompting concern across Europe and the U.S. Iran still has enough fuel on hand to produce a handful of warheads, should its leadership make a political decision to move forward," the report continues. But then a key line based on a 12-page IAEA report: Monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday that Iran has begun implementing measures "aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile," according to a 12-page report seen by Bloomberg News. The Islamic Republic’s engineers have already taken the first steps necessary to cap output, the report said. Could this be the Trump effect happening in real time? Tehran has expressed willingness to work with the incoming Trump administration, and is of course fully aware that some pro-Israel hawks have already been placed in key positions (most notably Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, and Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel). But some top Iranian officials are still waiving the nuclear threat around... Ayatollah Khamenei's top advisor, Mohammad-Javad Larijani, says that Iran can achieve Nuclear Deterrence in 24 hours, while our enemies predicted that it will take us 48 hours pic.twitter.com/RfLK7p9oVW The reality is that Tehran knows that Trump will carry a big stick, and will be more willing to give Israel a wide berth for conducing offensive action against the Islamic Republic. Tehran could now be trying to show President-elect Trump that it's taking serious steps to deescalate things.
The Oil Market Weighed the News of Norway’s Oilfield Restarting Operations -- The oil market on Tuesday weighed the news of Norway’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield restarting operations and reports of Iran offering to cap its uranium stocks against concerns over the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The oil market erased some of Monday’s gains and posted a low of $68.45 following the news that Equinor resumed partial production from the Johan Sverdrup field, the day after a power outage caused it to shut down. The market also came under pressure after reports by the U.N.’s IAEA said that Iran offered to stop expanding its stock of uranium enriched to 60% purity. However, the market, which tested its support at its low, bounced higher and traded to a high of $69.67 by mid-morning on news that Ukraine for the first time used U.S. ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory on Tuesday, with Russia describing the attack as a Western escalation. Also, Russia’s President approved an updated nuclear doctrine, lowering a threshold for a possible nuclear strike. The crude market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The December WTI contract ended the session up 23 cents at $69.39 and the January Brent contract settled up 1 cent at $73.31. The product markets ended mixed, with the heating oil market settling down 1.12 cents at $2.2402 and the RB market settling up 1.94 cents at $2.0377. HSBC said it expects OPEC+ to announce another three-month extension of the cuts until April 2025. It said OPEC’s three month extension would reduce the scale of the potential oversupply of oil in 2025. It said a longer extension cannot be ruled out but does not solve the spare capacity overhang.Russian President Vladimir Putin approved an updated nuclear doctrine, saying that Russia will treat an attack by a non-nuclear state that is supported by a country with nuclear capabilities as a joint attack by both. The decision to change Russia’s official nuclear doctrine is the Kremlin’s response to a reported decision by the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to fire American long-range missiles into Russia. The updated doctrine, which outlines the threats which would make Russia’s leadership consider a nuclear strike, said an attack with conventional missiles, drones or other aircraft could be considered to meet these criteria. Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said any aggression against Russia by a state which was a member of a coalition would be considered by Moscow to be aggression against it by the whole coalition. Separately, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said attacks on Russia’s Bryansk region by Ukraine with U.S. missiles was a clear signal that the West wanted to escalate the conflict. He said he hoped Russia’s new nuclear doctrine, in which President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike, would be attentively read.A White House National Security Council spokesperson said the United States was not surprised by Russia’s announced change in its nuclear doctrine and does not plan to adjust its own nuclear posture in response. Meanwhile, a U.S. official said Ukraine has used U.S.-made ATACMS rockets inside Russia for the first time.Equinor has resumed partial production from its Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following a power outage, reaching two-thirds of capacity by mid-morning on Tuesday. On Monday, Equinor halted output from the oilfield due to an onshore power outage that disrupted electricity supply to the platforms. Equinor was working to resume its full output.
Oil settles flat as escalation of Ukraine war counters Sverdrup field restart (Reuters) - Oil prices were broadly unchanged on Tuesday as signs of escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war kept investors cautious of supply disruptions, but the partial restart of production in Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield limited gains.Brent crude futures rose by a cent to settle at $73.31 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.3%, or 23 cents, to close at $69.39 a barrel. For the first time, Ukraine used U.S. ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory on Tuesday, Moscow said. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov described the attack as a Western escalation. Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a possible nuclear strike."This marks a renewed build up in tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war and brings back into focus the risk of supply disruptions in the oil market," ANZ Bank analyst Daniel Hynes said.Market watchers also pointed to signs of higher crude oil purchases by top importer China. China's crude imports are on track to end November at or close to all-time highs, StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes said, referencing data from vessel tracker Kpler.Weak imports by China so far this year have weighed heavily on oil prices, pulling Brent futures down 20% from their April peak of over $92 a barrel. China's crude oil imports in October fell from a year earlier for the sixth straight month. China likely stepped up oil purchases this month as current prices offer relatively good value, Hodes said. Limiting oil's ascent, Equinor resumed partial production from the Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea, Western Europe's largest oilfield, the day after a power outage there contributed to a 3% surge in oil price benchmarks.The restart and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on market sentiment on Tuesday, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Oil prices also came under pressure after confidential reports by the U.N. nuclear watchdog, seen by Reuters, said Iran has offered to stop expanding its stock of uranium enriched to 60% purity, near the roughly 90% of weapons grade.U.S. crude oil stockpiles rose by 4.75 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, market sources said on Tuesday citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute.Analysts polled by Reuters on average expect to see a smaller build of around 100,000 barrels.
WTI Dips After Small Crude Build, US Production Tumbles Crude prices are extending recent gains this morning - albeit modestly - as geopolitical risk premia are rebuilding amid missiles flying in Russia, MidEast tensions continuing, and Biden seems set on WW3 as his legacy. Last night's API report showed a larger than expected crude inventory build and traders are on the lookout for whether a contango market structure is here to stay after the WTI prompt spread dipped into negative territory this week for the first time since February, signaling near-term oversupply. API:
- Crude +4.75mm
- Cushing -288k
- Gasoline -2.48mm
- Distillates -688k
DOE
- Crude +545k (-620k exp)
- Cushing -140k
- Gasoline +2.05mm
- Distillates -114k
The official DOE data was very different from the API reported data with a small crude build and large gasoline build. This is the third straight weekly crude build and the biggest gasoline build since early September...Graphics Source: Bloomberg The Biden admin added 1.4mm barrels to the SPR last week - the biggest addition since August - making its the fifth straight week of total crude stocks rising... US Crude production plunged by 200k b/d and does not look hurricane-related... WTI dipped after the data...
Oil steady as Ukraine escalation offsets US crude, gasoline stock build - Oil prices were steady on Wednesday as the escalating war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine offset a rise in U.S. crude and gasoline stocks. Brent crude futures for January were down 4 cents, or 0.05%, at $73.27 a barrel by 10:43 a.m. EDT (1543 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December, due to expire on Wednesday, were up 26 cents, or 0.37%, at $69.65, while the more active WTI contract for January was up 2 cents, or 0.03%, at $69.26. U.S. crude stocks and gasoline inventories rose and distillate stockpiles fell in the week ending Nov. 15, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 545,000 barrels to 430.3 million barrels last week, the EIA said, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 138,000-barrel rise. U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 2.1 million barrels to 208.9 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 900,000-barrel build. The escalating war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine and subsequent concern around potential oil supply disruptions have kept a floor under prices this week. This has put geopolitical risk back in the market, StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Wednesday. “However, the concerns over additional sanctions or disruptions of Russian fuel or crude oil supplies appear misguided,” Hodes added, pointing to strong Russian fuel exports. Long positions in WTI have declined significantly despite the added geopolitical risk, according to Aegis Hedging associate Christian Drolshagen, with hedge funds holding only 50% of summer levels, per CFTC data. “We may expect (Brent) oil prices to stay supported above the $70 level for now, as market participants continue to monitor the geopolitical developments,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG. On Tuesday, Ukraine used U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time, Moscow said, while Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the bar for a possible nuclear attack. “The price action in the oil market has been relatively uneventful post-U.S. election, with some pick-up in the past couple of days due to a temporary production outage in the North Sea and a further escalation in the nature of the confrontationin Ukraine,” said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group. Norway’s Equinor on Wednesday said it had restored full output capacity at the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following a power outage. Equinor last month said the field was producing at peak capacity of around 755,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Weighing on prices on Wednesday, Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem said in a televised speech that his group had reviewed and given feedback on a U.S.-drafted ceasefire proposal to end fighting with Israel, and that a halt to hostilities was now in Israel’s hands. Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will trim interest rates next month but make shallower cuts in 2025 than expected just a month ago due to the risk of higher inflation from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies, according to most economists in a Reuters poll. Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, which can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil.
Builds Reported in Crude Oil and Gasoline Stocks - On its last day as the spot contract, the December WTI contract ended the session lower as the market weighed the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine against the builds reported in crude oil and gasoline stocks. In overnight trading, the crude market dismissed the API report, which showed a build in crude stocks of over 4 million barrels on the week, and continued to trend higher in overnight trading on concerns that the hostilities between Russia and Ukraine could potentially disrupt oil supply from Russia. The crude market traded to a high of $70.15 and traded mostly sideways ahead of the release of the EIA’s weekly petroleum stocks report. The market, however, erased its gains and sold off to a low of $68.75 ahead of the close. The December WTI contract went off the board down 52 cents at $68.87. The January Brent contract settled down 50 cents at $72.81. The product markets ended the session in mixed territory, with the heating oil market settling down 1.39 cents at $2.2263 and the RB market settled up 81 points at $2.0458. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil imports increased by 1.175 million bpd in the week ending November 15th to 7.684 million bpd. U.S. Gulf Coast crude oil imports increased by 602,000 bpd to 2.002 million bpd last week, the highest since July 2020. U.S. distillate stocks fell by 114,000 barrels on the week to 114.3 million barrels, with stocks in the Midwest falling by 400,000 barrels on the week to 25.3 million barrels, the lowest level since November 2023. Meanwhile, gasoline stocks increased by 2.054 million barrels on the week, with a build of 1 million barrels in the Midwest.Equinor restored full output capacity at its Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following an outage and is now producing steadily at normal levels. Output was halted on Monday due to an onshore outage that disrupted electricity supply to the platforms. Early on Tuesday, Equinor said two-thirds of oil output capacity was restored and added that production returned to full capacity later in the day on Tuesday.Sources and analysts said OPEC+ will have little room to maneuver on oil policy when it meets in December, as it would be risky to increase output due to weak demand and difficult to deepen supply cuts because some members want to produce more. According to three OPEC+ sources, the group may continue to push back output increases when it meets on December 1st due to weak global oil demand.IIR Energy said U.S. oil refiners are expected to shut in 484,000 bpd of capacity in the week ending November 22nd, raising available refining capacity by 123,000 bpd. Offline capacity is expected to fall to 145,000 bpd in the week ending November 29th. The United States vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza. The 15-member council voted on a resolution put forward by 10 non-permanent members that called for an “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” in the 13-month conflict and separately demanded the release of hostages. Robert Wood, deputy U.S. ambassador to the U.N., said Washington had made clear it would only support a resolution that explicitly calls for the immediate release of hostages as part of a ceasefire.
Oil settles down on strong US supply, losses capped by Ukraine escalation - -Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday after U.S. crude and gasoline stocks rose by more than expected last week, but losses were capped by worries about the intensifying war between major oil producer Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude futures for January settled down 50 cents, or 0.68%, at $72.81. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for December expired on Wednesday, and settled down 52 cents, or 0.75%, at $68.87, while the more active WTI contract for January settled down 49 cents, or 0.71% at $68.75. U.S. crude and gasoline stocks rose by more than expected last week, according to data from the Energy Information Administration, which weighed on prices. Further boosting supply, Norway's Equinor said it had restored full output capacity at the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in the North Sea following a power outage. Weak demand in the world's largest crude importer continued, with Chinese stimulus announcements failing to boost oil demand growth in the near-term, Macquarie energy strategists said in a note. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and concern around future oil supply disruptions helped keep a floor under prices. "These risks to supply are definitely keeping the support here and offsetting to a degree concerns around the global demand outlook," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. Ukraine fired a volley of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday, the latest Western weapon it has been permitted to use on Russian targets a day after it fired U.S. ATACMS missiles. This has put geopolitical risk back in the market, StoneX energy analyst Alex Hodes said in a note on Wednesday. But long positions in WTI have declined significantly despite the added geopolitical risk, according to Aegis Hedging associate Christian Drolshagen, with hedge funds holding only 50% of summer levels, per CFTC data. Elsewhere, the U.S. on Wednesday vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza, buoying oil prices' war risk premium on concerns around potential supply disruptions as war in the Middle East continues. "The market is very nervous something could happen with another escalation between the Israelis and Iranians," said Again Capital's Kilduff. "Everyone is focused on Trump and U.S. producers being let loose, but the flip side of that is that sanctions are definitely back in the market as far as what happens next with Iranian supplies and its ability to export," he added. Global supply could be further squeezed, with OPEC potentially set to push back output increases again when it meets on Dec. 1 due to weak global oil demand, according to three OPEC sources familiar with the discussions.
The Oil Market Trended Higher as the Conflict Between Ukraine and Russia Escalated -- The oil market on Thursday continued to trend higher as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia escalated further. The market posted a low of $68.86 in overnight trading before it retraced more than 62% of its move from a high of $72.41 to a low of $66.53 and slightly breached a trendline at $70.31 as it posted a high of $70.38 early on Thursday. The oil market was well supported after Ukraine said Russia fired what appeared to be an intercontinental ballistic missile on a Ukrainian city on Thursday. However, the market later gave up some of its gains as the claims of Russia using an intercontinental ballistic missile was denied. Russia’s President said the country launched a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile while also warning that Russia could strike any country whose weapons were used against Russia. The January WTI contract traded in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session and settled up $1.35 cents at $70.10. The January Brent contract settled up $1.42 at $74.23. Meanwhile, the product markets ended the session higher, with the heating oil market settling up 4.81 cents at $2.2744 and the RB market settling up 1.36 cents at $2.0594. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia had launched a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile attack on a Ukrainian military facility and warned the West that Russia could strike the military installations of any country whose weapons were used against Russia. He said the West was escalating the conflict in Ukraine by allowing Kyiv to strike Russia with long-range missiles and that the conflict was becoming a global conflict. Earlier on Thursday, Kyiv’s air force said Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile during an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro that targeted enterprises and critical infrastructure, in what would be the first use in war of a weapon designed to deliver long-distance nuclear strikes. The launch, if confirmed, highlights increasing tensions in the war after Ukraine fired U.S. and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week despite warnings by Russia that it would see such action as a major escalation. A U.S. official said Russia fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile, not an ICBM, during an attack on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday.According to news agency Interfax, Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Russian air defenses shot down two British Storm Shadow cruise missiles.A record 71.7 million people are expected to travel by car over the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday, 1.3 million more than just a year ago, according to U.S. auto club AAA. The national average price for regular gasoline stands at $3.07 per gallon nearly 20 cents less than the price seen a year ago.According to the EPA, the United States generated more renewable blending credits in October versus the previous month. It reported that about 1.27 billion ethanol (D6) blending credits were generated in October, compared with about 1.21 billion in September. Credits generated from biodiesel (D4) blending increased to nearly 784 million in October from about 768 million in September.
Oil rises 2% on supply worries as Russia-Ukraine war escalates (Reuters) - Oil climbed nearly 2% on Thursday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine were rapidly rising as the countries launched missiles at each other, worrying markets about crude supply if the conflict widened. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia had launched a hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile attack on a Ukrainian military facility, and warned the West that Moscow could strike the military installations of any country whose weapons were used against Russia. Putin said the West was escalating the conflict in Ukraine by allowing Kyiv to strike Russia with long-range missiles, and that the war was becoming a global conflict.Ukraine fired U.S. and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week despite warnings by Moscow that it would see such action as a major escalation.Brent crude futures rose $1.42, or 1.95%, to $74.23 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased $1.35, or 2%, to $70.10."The market's focus has now shifted to heightened concerns about an escalation in the war in Ukraine," said Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB.Russia is the world's second-largest crude oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, so major disruptions could impact global supplies."For oil, the risk is if Ukraine targets Russian energy infrastructure, while the other risk is uncertainty over how Russia responds to these attacks," said ING analysts in a note.Weighing on the market was a rise in U.S. crude inventories of 545,000 barrels to 430.3 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 15, exceeding analysts' expectations.Gasoline inventories last week rose more than forecast, while distillate stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected draw, according to the Energy Information Administration data.China on Thursday announced policy measures to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's threats to impose tariffs.OPEC+ may push back output increases again when it meets on Dec. 1 due to weak global oil demand, said three OPEC+ sources familiar with the discussions.The group, which combines the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia, pumps around half the world's oil. It had initially planned to gradually reverse production cuts from late 2024 and through 2025.Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Thursday reiterated his support for further interest rate cuts and his openness to doing them more slowly. Slower-than-expected interest rate cuts keep the cost of borrowing elevated in the meantime, which can slow economic activity and dampen demand for oil.
Oil prices climb 1% to two-week high as Ukraine war intensifies - Oil prices climbed about 1% to a two-week high on Friday as the intensifying war in Ukraine this week boosted the market’s geopolitical risk premium. Brent futures rose $1.05, or 1.4%, to $75.28 a barrel by 1:15 p.m. EST (1815 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.22, or 1.7%, to $71.32. That put both crude benchmarks up about 6% for the week and on track for their highest closes since Nov. 7 as Moscow steps up its Ukraine offensive after Britain and the U.S. allowed Kyiv to strike deeper into Russia with their missiles. “The Russia-Ukraine escalation has raised geopolitical tensions beyond levels seen during the year-long conflict between Israel,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen. President Vladimir Putin said Russia would keep testing its new Oreshnik hypersonic missile in combat and had a stock ready for use. Russia fired the missile into Ukraine, prompted by Ukraine’s use of U.S. ballistic missiles and British cruise missiles to hit Russia. “What the market fears is accidental destruction in any part of oil, gas and refining that not only causes long-term damage but accelerates a war spiral,” said PVM analyst John Evans. The U.S., meanwhile, imposed new sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank as President Joe Biden steps up actions to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine before he leaves office on Jan. 20. The Kremlin said the new U.S. sanctions were an attempt by Washington to hinder the export of Russian gas, but noted that a solution would be found. The U.S. also banned food, metals and other imports from about 30 more Chinese companies over alleged forced labor involving the Uyghurs. China, the world’s biggest oil importer, announced policy measures this week to boost trade, including support for energy product imports, amid worries over U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs. China’s crude oil imports were set to rebound in November, according to analysts, traders and ship tracking data. Oil imports also increased in India, the world’s third biggest oil importer, as domestic consumption increased, according to government data. Pressuring prices on Friday, euro zone business activity took a surprisingly sharp turn for the worse this month as the bloc’s dominant services industry contracted and manufacturing sank deeper into recession. In contrast, S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to the highest level since April 2022, with the services sector providing the bulk of the increase. But with those business activity gauges moving in opposite directions in the U.S. and Europe, the U.S. dollar jumped to a two-year high versus a basket of other currencies. A stronger greenback makes oil more expensive in other countries, which can reduce demand. In Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, the economy grew less than previously estimated in the third quarter, the statistics office reported on Friday.
U.S. oil prices score a more than 6% weekly gain on supply risks tied to the Russia-Ukraine war | Morningstar --Oil futures settled higher on Friday, with the U.S. crude benchmark up by more than 6% for the week as traders continued to monitor escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia, which is among the world's biggest oil producers.Still, downbeat economic data from Europe fed concerns over a potential slowdown in energy demand, as European business activity sank to a 10-month low, helping to limit gains for oil and keep WTI and Brent prices down year to date.
- -- West Texas Intermediate crude for January delivery CL00 CL.1 rose $1.14, or 1,6%, to settle at $71.24 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Based on the front month contract, prices finished up by 6.4% for the week, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
- -- January Brent crude BRN00 BRNF25, the global benchmark, climbed by 94 cents, or 1.3%, to $75.17 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, for a weekly rise of 5.8%.
- -- U.S. and global benchmark oil prices logged their biggest weekly percentage gains since early October.
- -- December gasoline RBZ24 tacked on 0.1% to $2.06 a gallon, with prices up nearly 5.8% for the week, while December heating oil HOZ24 ended little changed at $2.27 a gallon, posting a weekly rise of 4.8%.
- -- Natural gas for December delivery NGZ24 settled at $3.13 per million British thermal units, down 6.3% for the session, but ending 10.8% higher for the week.
"The resurgence in geopolitical tensions is serving as a bullish catalyst, but it is not an influence that will persist in perpetuity," analysts at Sevens Report Research wrote in a Friday newsletter. "The reality of weakening economic trends amid a growing amount of sidelined supply is likely to send [WTI] futures back below $70 and even below $60 in the months ahead." "Conversely, a more meaningful rise in geopolitical tensions that threaten, or worse, directly impact, regional oil and gas infrastructure in Eastern Europe and Russia has the potential to send oil back beyond $80," they said. Oil prices had traded lower early Friday following downbeat economic data from Europe. The HCOB flash eurozone composite purchasing managers index fell to a 10-month low in November, rekindling concerns about a recession in the eurozone. Gauges of activity in the services and manufacturing sectors left economists disappointed, but oil traders focused on the weak manufacturing data, which helped send prices lower on Friday, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank."Overall, I believe the weak demand outlook highlighted by the dismal manufacturing PMI in Europe today remains a key factor which has helped offset strengthening refinery margins amid a Northern Hemisphere cold spell and a non quantifiable geopolitical risks related to the Russia-Ukraine escalation," Hansen said in response to a question from MarketWatch via email. Oil prices rallied on Thursday after Ukraine said Russia had used an intercontinental ballistic missile, capping off a week of escalating tensions between the two neighbors as Russia's invasion dragged on. Prices for both U.S.-traded crude and the international benchmark rose this week, with WTI and Brent crude marking their best weekly performance since early October. Still, "the elephant in the room is the upcoming OPEC meeting," said Manish Raj, managing director at Velandera Energy Partners, referring to major oil producers known as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, who will also be meeting with their allies, including Russia. The "popular wager" is that the group, known as OPEC+, will roll over, or extend, their production cuts again, he said. "We expect OPEC to hammer down on the overproducers that include Iraq, Kazakhstan, Nigeria and Russia," said Raj. In November, OPEC+ announced that it would extend the 2.2 million barrel-per-day voluntary output cuts by one month to the end of December. For the Dec. 1 meeting, the CME Group's OPEC Watch tool shows a probability of 44.95% for no change to production plans, and a probability of 55.05% that the group will decide to further delay an output increase. Natural-gas prices, meanwhile, ended sharply lower on Friday, but after posting sharp gains in recent sessions, scored a nearly 11% rise for the week. Prices touched their highest level in a year on Thursday.Forecasts for colder weather, Donald Trump's win in the U.S. presidential election, and the escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war have all contributed to a rise in natural-gas prices, said David Grumhaus, president and chief investment officer at Duff & Phelps. Trump's win is bullish for long-term prices because he is likely to encourage further natural-gas demand, while also loosening regulation around permitting for both pipelines and LNG export facilities, Grumhaus said. The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war not only tempers expectations of a cease-fire that could bring more gas back to Europe but Russia has, as of Nov. 16, halted supplies to Europe via Ukraine of a large remaining gas contract that wasn't scheduled to expire until year-end, he said. Weather is also a "wild card" and a harsh winter in the U.S. or in Europe could "Certainly push prices a lot higher,"
Iran to launch ‘advanced centrifuges’ in response to IAEA censure – Iran said Friday it would launch a series of “new and advanced” centrifuges in response to a resolution adopted by the UN nuclear watchdog that censures Tehran for what the agency called lack of cooperation. The censure motion brought by Britain, France, Germany, and the United States at the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) follows a similar one in June. The resolution — which China, Russia and Burkina Faso voted against — was carried with 19 votes in favour, 12 abstentions and Venezuela not participating, two diplomats told AFP. “The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran issued an order to take effective measures, including launching a significant series of new and advanced centrifuges of various types,” a joint statement by the organisation and Iran’s foreign ministry said. It added, however, that “technical and safeguards cooperation with the IAEA will continue, as in the past” and within the framework of agreements made by Iran. Iran’s retaliatory measures “are reversible if this (Western) hostile action is withdrawn or negotiations are opened,” Tehran-based political analyst Hadi Mohammadi told AFP. The resolution comes with tensions running high over Iran’s atomic programme, with critics fearing that Tehran is attempting to develop a nuclear weapon — a claim the Islamic republic has repeatedly denied. The confidential resolution seen by AFP says it is “essential and urgent” for Iran to “act to fulfil its legal obligations” under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) ratified in 1970. The NPT requires signatory states to declare and place their nuclear materials under the control of the IAEA. The text also calls on Tehran to provide “technically credible explanations” for the presence of uranium particles found at two undeclared locations in Iran. In addition, Western powers are asking for a “comprehensive report” to be issued by the IAEA on Iran’s nuclear efforts “at the latest” by spring 2025. The resolution comes just as the IAEA’s head Rafael Grossi returned from a trip to Tehran last week, where he appeared to have made headway. During the visit, Iran agreed to an IAEA demand to cap its sensitive stock of near weapons-grade uranium enriched up to 60 percent purity. “Iran did not start the cycle of provocation — the Western side could, without passing a resolution … create the atmosphere for negotiations if it really was after talks,” expert Hadi Mohammadi said.
Iran Announces New Centrifuges To Come Online After IAEA Rebuke - In a 19-3 vote with 12 abstentions, the IAEA agreed to rebuke Iran for a “lack of cooperation.” The vote was driven by the US, UK, and their allies. Russia and China both voted against the resolution, along with Burkina Faso.The timing of the decision was particularly unfortunately, coming just days after IAEA chief Rafael Grossi’s visit to Iran, during which Iran agreed to measures designed to keep their stockpile of high-enriched uranium from growing. Iran also promised to ensure that it’s highest enrichment levels remain 60% or below, which is below the 90% level needed to make weapons.All that raised hope among officials actually invested in the safeguard efforts. The US-led effort for censure seems, as always, to underscore that Iran cannot take any steps that would satisfy them. Angered by the IAEA rebuke, Iran is promising a response.A joint statement by Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization and Foreign Ministry announced they will take new measures, including bringing newer, more advanced centrifuges online. Such moves would of course be reversible, if the international community became more willing to negotiate and comply with the existing P5+1 nuclear deal.That seems unlikely in the near term. Though the P5+1 deal is nominally still in effect, the US withdrew from it in 2018, after repeated condemnations by President Trump. Since Trump’s return to office in imminent, it seems unlikely that the administration will be any more willing to make a deal than they were the last time.Iran is trying to assure that the new measures are only related to enrichment, which again remains well below the level of weapons-grade uranium. The statement issued also assured that Iran will continue with safeguard and technical cooperation with the IAEA, as it had previously agreed.In the end, the IAEA censure is less about anything Iran is doing than about continuing the narrative of the “Iranian nuclear threat.” That this is the second time this year that the IAEA has voted on such a measure despite there being no real change in Iran’s policy or action. The US intelligence community has repeatedly confirmed that Iran has not decided to make a nuclear weapon. Seemingly every Iranian earthquake leads hawks to speculate a secret detonation has taken place, however, and the fear-mongering continues.
Rare Israeli Attack On Syria's Palmyra Launched From US-Controlled Airspace - Huge Israeli airstrikes rocked the outskirts of the central Syrian city of Palmyra on Wednesday, with regional reports saying the attacks were launched by Israeli jets utilizing US-controlled airspace over Al-Tanf military base in eastern Syria. "Israeli warplanes launched a number of missiles from the airspace of the [US] base in the Al-Tanf area on the Syrian–Iraqi–Jordanian border, in the far southeastern countryside of Homs, targeting the vicinity of the city of Palmyra," Sputnik’s correspondent reported.Israeli attacks on Palmyra are rare, if not unheard of, given how deep into central Syria and the eastern desert the town lies. Al-Tanf base is located a little over 200km from Palmyra. The border base has been occupied by US forces for many years now.Syrian state SANA has cited a large casualty count, reporting at least 36 dead and over 50 wounded. SANA reports, "At approximately 1:30 p.m. today, the Israeli enemy launched an air attack from the direction of al-Tanf area, targeting a number of buildings in Palmyra City in the Syrian Desert, led to the martyrdom of 36 people, the injury of more than 50 others, and significant material damage to the buildings and the surrounding area."Palmyra before the war attracted tourists from across the globe as it is known for its ancient Roman ruins, and is a UNESCO World Heritage site.The iconic ruins and temples were partially damaged when the remote outpost was overrun by the Islamic State terror group in 2015, and many Syrian Army personnel were killed trying to defend it.Syrian government forces with the help of Russian aerial support were able to get Palmyra back from ISIS by March 2016. Russia and Syria have long accused American forces based out of Al-Tanf of training terrorists and facilitating their movements, in order to keep up pressure on Damascus.
Israel Strike in Central Beirut Hits Syrian Party Office, Killing Hezbollah Media Chief - The metro area around Beirut, particularly the southern suburbs, has been the focus of Israeli near-daily strikes for weeks now. Today, an Israeli airstrike hit central Beirut, Lebanon’s capital, in the Ras al-Nabaa District.The strike targeted a building belonging to the Syria Ba’ath Party, the ruling party of Syria, and killed at least five. Among the slain was Mohammad Afif, Hezbollah’s media relations chief. The other casualties have yet to be identified.Syrian Ba’ath Secretary General for Lebanon, Ali Hijazi, confirmed the killing of Afif. He added that Afif was not a combatant, and was only the head of Hezbollah’s media unit. He was at the party building for a meeting at the time of the attack.The strike reportedly damaged a large number of cars, in addition to nearly destroying the building. It also caused considerable panic as the area is near many important landmarks as well as the French Embassy. Israel has not previously attacked this district in its ever-escalating war.Israel has ramped up its attacks on Lebanon since late September and launched a ground invasion in early October that continues to movedeeper and deeper into southern Lebanon.There are active international efforts to try to negotiate a ceasefire in Lebanon, though Israeli officials insist there will be no ceasefire. Israel reportedly demands that any deal leave it free to strike Lebanon after a ceasefire begins, a condition unlikely to be accepted by Lebanon.
Netanyahu: Even If There's a Lebanon Ceasefire Deal, Israel Will Continue To Operate Against Hezbollah - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that even if there is a ceasefire deal reached in Lebanon, Israel will still operate militarily against Hezbollah.“The most important thing is not (the deal that) will be laid on paper,” Netanyahu told the Knesset, according to AFP. “We will be forced to ensure our security in the north (of Israel) and to systematically carry out operations against Hezbollah’s attacks… even after a ceasefire.”Netanyahu’s comments reflect Israel’s demands for a ceasefire in Lebanon. Israel wants Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon to areas north of the Litani River and wants its military to have freedom of action in southern Lebanon so it could enforce the deal, which is a non-starter for Hezbollah and the Lebanese government.A few weeks ago, Israeli media reported on a leaked US-drafted proposal for a Lebanon ceasefire that included Israel’s conditions. The US recently submitted a new ceasefire proposal to Lebanon, which the Lebanese government said it received “positively,” signaling it might not include the same maximalist demands.Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati said on Monday most issues were resolved with the latest US draft proposal but that there were some “unclear points” that required “clarification” from Amos Hochstein, who President Biden has appointed as an envoy for Lebanon ceasefire talks.Hochstein is an Israeli-born IDF veteran who quietly encouraged Israel’s major escalations in Lebanon back in September despite the US initially saying publicly that it wanted a ceasefire. Hochstein is expected to visit Beirut this week to discuss the latest ceasefire proposal.Later on Monday, Reuters reported that both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah agreed broadly to the US proposal, but there’s been no word on whether or not Israel has agreed.
At Least 20 Killed as Israel Levels Central Beirut Apartment With Bunker Buster Bomb - Israel attacking civilian targets without warning has become almost de rigueur in Lebanon these days. Overnight, however, the surprise attacks reached a new level, with Israel leveling an 8-storey apartment building in Central Beirut with a bunker buster bomb.The building was on Mamoun Street in the Basta al-Fawqa. The attack came at about 4:00 AM, and the explosion was so powerful it was felt all across the Lebanese capital city. At least 20 people have been killed, and over 70 wounded. Rescue operations are still ongoing.The use of a bunker buster bomb on a plainly civilian target seems excessive, and it’s not clear why Israel chose this unassuming building in the crowded center of Beirut to hit with such powerful weaponry. Israel has not publicly commented on the matter.Reports from Israeli media, however, suggest the attack aimed to kill Muhammad Haydar, who has risen to a high military position within Hezbollah, following assassinations of previous group leaders. However, Hezbollah insists neither Haydar nor any other Hezbollah members were in the building at the time.The bunker buster bombs are meant for targeting heavily fortified, or underground, complexes. The residential building, however, was clearly not meant to withstand airstrikes, let alone massive bombings, and the result with a big crater in the center of the neighborhood. Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem earlier this week said that the attacks on central Beirut, which began last week, justified Hezbollah attacks on central Tel Aviv. This week, a missile strike did damage to an area of the Tel Aviv District, but east of the city of Tel Aviv itself. This all suggests that the war is continuing to escalate, and while US officials have expressed hopes about a ceasefire possibility, there is no sign of anything calming down.
More Than 100 Palestinians in Gaza Killed By Israeli Forces in One Day - Israeli forces killed at least 111 Palestinians in Gaza on Sunday, Al Jazeerareported, citing medical sources, as Israeli strikes continued to pound targets across the Strip.The majority were killed by an Israeli strike on a residential building in the northern city of Beit Lahia that was sheltering forcibly displaced families. Gaza’s Government Media Office said 72 Palestinians were killed in the strike, although the number isn’t confirmed. The Health Ministry saidnearly 30% of the victims of the massacre were children. Beit Lahia is one of the cities where Israeli forces have been conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign, forcing Palestinian civilians to flee under the threat of death. Beit Lahia, Beith Hanoun, and Jabalia have been under a complete Israeli siege since early October.Israeli strikes on Sunday also hit the Bureij and Nuseirat refugee camps in central Gaza. Middle East Eye reported that at least 10 were killed in Bureij. According to WAFA, at least four Palestinians were killed in Nuseirat.Gaza’s Health Ministry said in its daily death toll update, which it releases about mid-day Gaza time, that at least 47 Palestinians were killed and 139 were wounded in the previous 24-hour period. The toll only includes dead and wounded Palestinians brought to hospitals and morgues, and rescuers have been unable to access certain areas in the besieged northern cities.“There are still a number of victims under the rubble and on the streets, and ambulance and civil defense crews cannot reach them,” the Health Ministry said on Telegram. The ministry said the violence brought its death toll since October 2023 to 43,846 and the number of wounded to 103,740.A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden in October that the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign and siege have killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, including over 60,000 who have starved to death. Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.The US continues to support the genocidal slaughter by providing military aid to Israel. Last week, a UN panel said Israel was committing genocide in Gaza, and Human Rights Watch said Israel was carrying out ethnic cleansing, but the US denied both charges to ensure weapons shipments continue to flow.
Israeli Forces Kill 76 Palestinians in Gaza Over 24 Hours - Gaza’s Health Ministry said Monday that Israeli attacks killed at least 76 Palestinians and wounded 158 more in the previous 24-hour period as Israeli strikes continued to pound targets across the Strip. Strikes on Monday included an attack on a house in Beit Lahia, a city in northern Gaza that’s been under a complete siege since early October as part of an ethnic cleansing campaign.According to the Palestinian news agency WAFA, the Israeli strike in Beit Lahia killed at least 17 civilians. The strike was near the Kamal Adwan hospital, which also came under attack. According to Al Jazeera, people inside the hospital were injured by shrapnel when Israeli forces shelled the entrance.In Gaza City, an Israeli strike hit a house, killing at least five Palestiniansand injuring others. Israeli forces also targeted a house in Jabalia, killing one woman and injuring her family members.Israeli attacks were also reported in central and southern Gaza. Near the southern city of Rafah, an Israeli drone targeted a group of Palestinians, killing at least one. The Israeli military also bombed the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, killing at least four.The Health Ministry said the latest violence brought its death toll up to 43,922 and the number of wounded to 103,898. The figures don’t account for Palestinians missing and presumed dead under the rubble, which has previously been estimated to be over 10,000.A group of American healthcare workers who volunteered in Gaza estimated in an open letter to President Biden in October that the US-backed Israeli bombing campaign and siege have killed at least 118,908 Palestinians, including over 60,000 who have starved to death. Dr. Feroze Sidhwa, who led the letter, told Antiwar.com in a recent interview that the estimate was the bare minimum they came up with by looking at the available data.
UN Says Nearly 100 Aid Trucks in Gaza Lost to Looters -The UN’s Palestinian relief agency, UNRWA, said Monday that nearly 100 aid trucks that entered Gaza over the weekend were lost to armed looters.UNRWA said at least 98 trucks of a 109 truck convoy were lost. The convoy was attacked after entering southern Gaza from Israel through the Kerem Shalom border crossing. UNRWA said that the convoy was initially scheduled to enter Gaza on Sunday, but the Israeli military ordered it to leave a day early “at short notice via an alternate, unfamiliar route.” Last week, Haaretz reported that Israel was intentionally allowing armed gangs in Gaza to loot aid trucks and extort drivers for protection money. The report said that in some cases, the last remnants of Gaza’s police force tried to take action against the looters, but they were attacked by Israeli troops. Israel has systematically targeted Gaza’s police force throughout the past year. The Israeli military justifies its attacks on the police force by pointing to Hamas’s control over the force, but the lack of police has made securing aid for starving Palestinians much more difficult.In a sign that Gaza still has some sort of police force, the Strip’s Interior Ministry said Monday that it had confronted gangs responsible for looting aid. “More than 20 members of gangs involved in stealing aid trucks were killed in a security operation carried out by security forces in cooperation with tribal committees,” the ministry said, according to AFP.“Today’s security operation will not be the last. The phenomenon of truck thefts … has severely impacted society and led to signs of famine in southern Gaza,” the ministry added.Israel has been enforcing a starvation blockade on the northern cities of Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and Jabalia, not allowing any aid into those areas since early October. But the overall aid situation across the Strip has worsened as October saw the lowest number of aid trucks entering Gaza of any month since the start of Israel’s genocidal war.
International Criminal Court issues arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu — The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and a senior Hamas official, accusing them of war crimes during and after the October 7 attacks on Israel last year. In a statement on Thursday, the Netherlands-based court said it found “reasonable grounds” to believe that Netanyahu bears criminal responsibility for war crimes including “starvation as a method of warfare” and “the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.” The warrants mark a historic first, making Netanyahu the first Israeli leader summoned by an international court for alleged actions against Palestinians in the 76-year conflict. While ICC warrants don’t guarantee arrests, they could significantly restrict Netanyahu’s ability to travel to ICC member states. The prime minister’s office dismissed the warrants as “absurd and antisemitic.” “Israel utterly rejects the absurd and false actions and accusations against it by the International Criminal Court, which is a politically biased and discriminatory body,” his office said, adding that there is “no war more just… after the Hamas terrorist organization launched a murderous attack against it, carrying out the largest massacre against the Jewish people since the Holocaust.”Netanyahu “will not yield to pressure, will not back down, and will not retreat until all the goals of the war set by Israel at the start of the campaign are achieved,” it said.Israel, like the United States, is not a member of the ICC and has challenged the court’s jurisdiction over its actions in the conflict – a challenge the court rejected on Thursday. The ICC claims jurisdiction over territories Israel occupies, including Gaza, East Jerusalem, and the West Bank, following the Palestinian leadership’s formal agreement to be bound by the court’s founding principles in 2015.The court on Thursday also issued a warrant for Hamas official Mohammed Diab Ibrahim Al-Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, who Israel says was one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack. Israel said it killed him in an airstrike in September but Hamas hasn’t confirmed his death. The ICC said it found “reasonable grounds” to believe that Deif was responsible for “crimes against humanity, including murder, extermination, torture, and rape and other form of sexual violence, as well as the war crimes of murder, cruel treatment, torture, taking hostages, outrages upon personal dignity, and rape and other form of sexual violence.”Deif bears “criminal responsibility” for these crimes, the court said, having “committed the acts jointly and through others… having ordered or induced the commission of the crimes,” and for failing to “exercise proper control over forces under his effective command and control.”
ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant over Israel’s war in Gaza --The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants Thursday for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant “for crimes against humanity and war crimes” over Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip. The court said it found “reasonable grounds” to believe Netanyahu and Gallant bore responsibility for crimes including the use of starvation as a method of war and for “murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.” The court also issued a warrant for a Hamas military leader, Mohammed Deif, who Israeli officials say was killed in Gaza in July. Prosecutors issued the warrants because they were not able to confirm his death, the chambersaid. Israeli officials fiercely criticized the ICC’s decision, while a Hamas representative welcomed it. The decision of the International Criminal Court to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant subjects both men to the threat of arrest if they travel. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Canada would abide by the rulings of the International Criminal Court when asked Thursday whether he would step in to prevent the arrest of senior Israeli officials in Canada. “We are one of the founding members of the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice,” Trudeau said. “We stand up for international law and we will abide by all the regulations and rulings of the international courts. The United States “fundamentally rejects” the decision by the ICC to issue arrest warrants for senior Israeli leaders, a National Security Council spokesperson said Thursday.“We remain deeply concerned by the Prosecutor’s rush to seek arrest warrants and the troubling process errors that led to this decision,” the spokesperson said. “The United States has been clear that the ICC does not have jurisdiction over this matter.”The spokesperson added that the U.S. was “discussing next steps” with its partners, including Israel. Yoav Gallant, the former Israeli defense minister who is the subject of a new arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, said the court’s decision “sets a dangerous precedent against the right to self-defense and moral warfare.” A spokesman for the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs said Thursday that France supports “the action of the prosecutor of the court, which acts fully independently.” Spokesman Christophe Lemoine pointed to France’s previous statement when the warrants were requested, saying “the fight against impunity is our priority … so our reaction will be in line with these principles.” The Irish Foreign Ministry published a statement Thursday in support of the International Criminal Court. “Ireland is a strong supporter of the ICC and calls on all States to respect its independence and impartiality, with no attempts made to undermine the court,” the statement said.Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris called the decision to issue the warrants “an extremely significant step,” Reuters reported. The International Criminal Court’s announcement about issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant drew sharp and immediate reaction around the globe on Thursday, with Netanyahu’s office decrying the decision as “antisemitic” and the Netherlands coming forward as the first country willing to enforce the warrants.
Situation in the State of Palestine: ICC Pre-Trial Chamber I rejects the State of Israel’s challenges to jurisdiction and issues warrants of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant -- International Criminal Court press release: Today, on 21 November 2024, Pre-Trial Chamber I of the International Criminal Court (‘Court’), in its composition for the Situation in the State of Palestine, unanimously issued two decisions rejecting challenges by the State of Israel (‘Israel’) brought under articles 18 and 19 of the Rome Statute (the ‘Statute’). It also issued warrants of arrest for Mr Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Yoav Gallant…. The Chamber issued warrants of arrest for two individuals, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu and Mr Yoav Gallant, for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed from at least 8 October 2023 until at least 20 May 2024, the day the Prosecution filed the applications for warrants of arrest.The arrest warrants are classified as ‘secret’, in order to protect witnesses and to safeguard the conduct of the investigations. However, the Chamber decided to release the information below since conduct similar to that addressed in the warrant of arrest appears to be ongoing. Moreover, the Chamber considers it to be in the interest of victims and their families that they are made aware of the warrants’ existence.At the outset, the Chamber considered that the alleged conduct of Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant falls within the jurisdiction of the Court. The Chamber recalled that, in a previous composition, it already decided that the Court’s jurisdiction in the situation extended to Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem. Furthermore, the Chamber declined to use its discretionary proprio motu powers to determine the admissibility of the two cases at this stage. This is without prejudice to any determination as to the jurisdiction and admissibility of the cases at a later stage….The Chamber found reasonable grounds to believe that during the relevant time, international humanitarian law related to international armed conflict between Israel and Palestine applied. This is because they are two High Contracting Parties to the 1949 Geneva Conventions and because Israel occupies at least parts of Palestine. The Chamber also found that the law related to non-international armed conflict applied to the fighting between Israel and Hamas. The Chamber found that the alleged conduct of Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant concerned the activities of Israeli government bodies and the armed forces against the civilian population in Palestine, more specifically civilians in Gaza. It therefore concerned the relationship between two parties to an international armed conflict, as well as the relationship between an occupying power and the population in occupied territory. For these reasons, with regards to war crimes, the Chamber found it appropriate to issue the arrest warrants pursuant to the law of international armed conflict. The Chamber also found that the alleged crimes against humanity were part of a widespread and systematic attack against the civilian population of Gaza.The Chamber considered that there are reasonable grounds to believe that both individuals intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies, as well as fuel and electricity, from at least 8 October 2023 to 20 May 2024. This finding is based on the role of Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant in impeding humanitarian aid in violation of international humanitarian law and their failure to facilitate relief by all means at its disposal. The Chamber found that their conduct led to the disruption of the ability of humanitarian organisations to provide food and other essential goods to the population in need in Gaza. The aforementioned restrictions together with cutting off electricity and reducing fuel supply also had a severe impact on the availability of water in Gaza and the ability of hospitals to provide medical care.The Chamber also noted that decisions allowing or increasing humanitarian assistance into Gaza were often conditional. They were not made to fulfil Israel’s obligations under international humanitarian law or to ensure that the civilian population in Gaza would be adequately supplied with goods in need. In fact, they were a response to the pressure of the international community or requests by the United States of America. In any event, the increases in humanitarian assistance were not sufficient to improve the population’s access to essential goods.Furthermore, the Chamber found reasonable grounds to believe that no clear military need or other justification under international humanitarian law could be identified for the restrictions placed on access for humanitarian relief operations. Despite warnings and appeals made by, inter alia, the UN Security Council, UN Secretary General, States, and governmental and civil society organisations about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, only minimal humanitarian assistance was authorised. In this regard, the Chamber considered the prolonged period of deprivation and Mr Netanyahu’s statement connecting the halt in the essential goods and humanitarian aid with the goals of war.The Chamber therefore found reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant bear criminal responsibility for the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare.The Chamber found that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the lack of food, water, electricity and fuel, and specific medical supplies, created conditions of life calculated to bring about the destruction of part of the civilian population in Gaza, which resulted in the death of civilians, including children due to malnutrition and dehydration. On the basis of material presented by the Prosecution covering the period until 20 May 2024, the Chamber could not determine that all elements of the crime against humanity of extermination were met. However, the Chamber did find that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of murder was committed in relation to these victims.In addition, by intentionally limiting or preventing medical supplies and medicine from getting into Gaza, in particular anaesthetics and anaesthesia machines, the two individuals are also responsible for inflicting great suffering by means of inhumane acts on persons in need of treatment. Doctors were forced to operate on wounded persons and carry out amputations, including on children, without anaesthetics, and/or were forced to use inadequate and unsafe means to sedate patients, causing these persons extreme pain and suffering. This amounts to the crime against humanity of other inhumane acts.The Chamber also found reasonable grounds to believe that the abovementioned conduct deprived a significant portion of the civilian population in Gaza of their fundamental rights, including the rights to life and health, and that the population was targeted based on political and/or national grounds. It therefore found that the crime against humanity of persecution was committed.Finally, the Chamber assessed that there are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant bear criminal responsibility as civilian superiors for the war crime of intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population of Gaza. In this regard, the Chamber found that the material provided by the Prosecution only allowed it to make findings on two incidents that qualified as attacks that were intentionally directed against civilians. Reasonable grounds to believe exist that Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant, despite having measures available to them to prevent or repress the commission of crimes or ensure the submittal of the matter to the competent authorities, failed to do so.
Poll: Majority of Ukrainians Want Peace Talks To End War With Russia - A poll released by Gallup on Tuesday found that the majority of Ukrainians want peace talks to end the war with Russia.The poll, conducted in August and October, found that 52% of respondents wanted talks with Russia to end the conflict as soon as possible, while 38% believed Ukraine should keep fighting, and 9% said they didn’t know or refused to answer. Out of the 52% who favor negotiations, 52% said Ukraine should be open to territorial concessions, while 38% disagreed, and 10% said they weren’t sure.The survey marked the first time since the Russian invasion that a Gallup poll found the majority of Ukrainians favored negotiations to end the war. The support for peace talks is stronger in eastern areas of Ukraine near the frontlines, where 63% want negotiations to end the war, and only 27% want the fighting to continue.The poll, published on the 1,000th day of the war, came amid a major US escalation in the war as Ukraine began striking Russian territory with long-range US-provided missiles. The Biden administration appears to be doing whatever it can to escalate the conflict before President-elect Donald Trump is sworn in on January 20. The US is escalating the proxy war despite Ukraine having no clear path to victory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been pushing for more US support as part of his so-called “victory plan,” but even he has acknowledged the war will likely end through diplomacy in 2025.
Ukraine's ATACMS Strike On Russia Comes After Putin Lowers Threshold For Nukes About a day after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use the long-range US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System to strike deeper into Russian territory, a new report suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have hit a military installation in the western Bryansk region. This comes after Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia's nuclear weapons doctrine was changed and signed by President Vladimir Putin, indicating "the use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response." "For the first time, Ukraine's Defense Forces struck Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles," RBC Ukraine news agency reported Tuesday. RBC Ukraine said the military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region was successfully hit with ATACMS. This location was about 115 kilometers (71 miles) from the border with Ukraine. ATACMS flew more than 140 km and hit a target in the Bryansk region, russia. This means that the strike permit applies not only to Kurshchyna, as the Western media wrote about it. This attack also showed that the air defense of the russian Federation will have big problems with…pic.twitter.com/0Y1PU8g1Nt "Indeed, for the first time, we used ATACMS to strike Russian territory. The strike was carried out against a facility in the Bryansk region, and it was successfully hit," one source told the local media outlet. Separately, media outlet Kyiv Post stated the 67th arsenal of the Main Directorate of the Missile and Artillery Directorate of Russia was hit. The facility reportedly had large stockpiles of anti-aircraft missiles, munitions for multiple launch rocket systems, artillery ammunition, and guided bombs, much of which was supplied by North Korea.Kyiv Post noted: Russian media sources, including residents on social networks, reported explosions coming from within the Karachev district, and suggesting that a "military base" was being attacked. The Russian Astra Telegram channel shared videos of the incident, while local reports said that there had been strikes on this arsenal in late 2023 and again in June and October this year. Bloomberg revealed more details about the attack: Russian Defense Ministry confirmed Ukrainian armed forces launched a strike with US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles at a military object in Bryansk region on the border with Ukraine, Interfax reports.
European governments back use of US missiles to bomb Russia -- As Ukraine deploys US-supplied ATACMS missiles to bomb Russia, European officials are giving this policy their full support. The content of this staggeringly reckless decision—after the Kremlin warned that the use of US missiles, fired by US forces in Ukraine based on US targeting data, meant direct war between NATO and Russia—is unmistakable. The NATO alliance is, in reality, risking total war between the major nuclear powers. European governments are imposing this policy with flagrant disregard for the will of the people. After French President Emmanuel Macron called for sending troops to Ukraine to fight Russia this winter, a Eurasia Group poll found that nine in 10 people in Western Europe rejected this policy, which other European heads of state criticized. Now, however, they are all setting into motion an escalation of the conflict with Russia that could lead to nuclear war. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin enacted a tougher Russian nuclear doctrine than he had announced earlier this autumn, in response to US-UK threats to arm Ukraine with long-range missiles to bomb Russia. It states that “aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state will be regarded as their joint attack”. That is, if Ukraine fires NATO missiles at Russia, the NATO states are legitimate targets of Russian counterattacks, including with nuclear weapons. With monumental recklessness, European governments are indicating that they are willing to risk nuclear war in order to escalate their intervention in Ukraine. At a meeting of European Union (EU) foreign ministers in Brussels on Monday, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock endorsed the use of US missiles to bomb Russia. Berlin supports the “decision from the American side,” Baerbock said, stressing that this was “not a rethink … but an intensification of what has already been delivered by other partners.” Asked about the the use of NATO missiles to bomb Russia during the Brussels summit, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said France already supported this policy: “Well, you have heard President Macron on May 25th, in Meseberg, earlier this year. We openly said that this was an option that we would consider if it was to allow to strike targets from where Russian are currently aggressing Ukrainian territory. So, nothing new on this.” Yesterday, after Russia confirmed that Kiev and Washington had used ATACMS missiles to bomb Russia, Baerbock reiterated this position. She brushed aside Russian threats of a massive response, including the potential use of nuclear weapons, at Tuesday’s EU foreign ministers meeting in Warsaw. Asked how the German government views the change to Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine, she dismissed it, stating: “We will not be intimidated, no matter what new things are trumpeted time and again.” Amid the German election campaign, representatives of the governing and official opposition parties took similar positions. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann (FDP), Chair of the Defense Committee in the European Parliament, commented on X: “Better late than never. It is very good that Joe Biden is now making this important decision at the end of his term of office.” Norbert Röttgen, a leading foreign policy strategist of Germany’s opposition Christian-Democratic Union (CDU), also wrote on X: “The USA is doing what is morally and politically right. An overdue step that will finally enable Ukraine to defend itself against Russian weapons before they kill civilians in Ukraine.” He added, “Strengthening Ukraine’s ability to defend itself [is] permitted under international law and morally and politically necessary. It is the only language Putin understands.” No one is asking the necessary questions to explain the staggering consequences of this policy. If the Russian military responds to NATO strikes on its soil by bombing European military bases, or European cities, what do the European powers plan to do? Do they believe that they can wage a large-scale war with Russia without triggering nuclear war? How many millions of human lives are the European powers prepared to sacrifice for their war aims?
12 UK Storm Shadow Missiles Were Fired Into Russia, Local Sources Say - More details have emerged of Wednesday's Storm Shadow missile attack from Ukraine on Russia. This marks the first authorized known use of the long-range weapon in a cross-border attack. Previously the British government restricted use to within the Ukrainian battlespace, in the Donbass for example.Russian war correspondents have confirmed that "A missile’s flight was heard over Kursk. There’s information about a Storm Shadow attack near Rylsk." While the extent of damage or precise targets is unclear, sources on the ground say that up to a dozen Storm Shadows were fired:Rylsk’s territorial defense forces claimed that 12 Storm Shadow missiles were launched at around 2:50 p.m. Bloomberg, citing an anonymous Western official, also reported that Ukraine had fired Storm Shadow missiles on targets in Russia.Kursk regional Governor Alexei Smirnov announced that two inbound missiles were intercepted by anti-air defenses, but did not specify whether they were the UK-supplied missiles.In a first official acknowledgement and strong hint, Yuriy Ignat, a Ukrainian air force official, wrote on Facebook that "there was a ‘strong storm’ in Kursk region" - according to FT. One of the aims of the US and UK escalating like this appears to be sending a 'strong message' to North Korea as it's deployed thousands of troops to assist Russian forces.
Putin says Russia fired intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine -- Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia fired a new, nonnuclear intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine, part of a wide-ranging TV address that sharply criticized the U.S. for escalating the war. Putin said Russia had refrained from firing intermediate-range missiles but decided to carry out the test on Thursday after the U.S. allowed Ukraine to fire long-range missiles at targets inside his country. “And further actions will be considered and decided based on what we see from them,” Putin said. “It is not Russia but the United States who have decided to destroy a system of international security.” Ukrainian forces had earlier claimed that Russia fired at Ukraine an intercontinental ballistic missile, which is designed to hit targets thousands of miles away. It did not say what the impact of the launch was. But Putin said Russia fired an experimental intermediate ballistic missile that can reach speeds of Mach 10, or more than 7,000 mph. Intermediate-range ballistic missiles can hit targets up to 3,500 miles away. The missile, which was equipped with a nonnuclear hypersonic warhead, struck a military command center in Ukraine, Putin claimed. Russia’s ballistic missile test still raises the stakes in the war as Putin has vowed to respond to the U.S. authorizing Ukraine to launch the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) in Russia, something he has referred to as a red line for months. Putin earlier this week lowered the nuclear threshold in response to the Biden administration authorizing ATACMS, renewing fears that he could deploy a nuclear weapon against Ukraine. The Kremlin said conventional missiles from a nuclear-armed nation being fired into Russia by Ukraine could trigger a nuclear response. The White House has yet to publicly confirm that it has approved Ukraine’s use of ATACMS, but U.S. officials have pointed to Russia deploying thousands of North Korean troops against Ukraine as the escalation, not the long-range missile authorization. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Thursday that the “escalation at every turn, at every step, is coming from Russia.” “They’re the ones that are escalating this,” she said. “This is an aggression from their side.” Jean-Pierre said the U.S. was aware of the ballistic missile launch and reiterated that the White House views Putin’s saber-rattling as “irresponsible rhetoric.” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said at a briefing the U.S, was pre-notified of the ballistic missile launch through nuclear risk reduction channels. She added that Putin had made “dangerous, reckless rhetoric” in his Thursday speech. Putin on Thursday said the ATACMS missiles have already been used in the Russian regions of Kursk and Bryansk, confirming earlier reports from officials in Russia. He claimed that the ATACMS were largely countered by Russia but still wounded and killed Russian officials. Putin also expressed confidence in his forces, saying they were “advancing along the entire line of contact” in eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops are defending against a larger Russian army. Russia, however, has taken heavy losses in the advance. Putin said that because of the complexity involving ATACMS, the U.S. is directly involved in the firing of the systems at Russia and threatened that Russia was prepared for a response. “The ruling elites of the countries that are nurturing plans to use their military contingents against Russia should be warned,” Putin said.
Putin Says Russia Struck Ukraine With a New Hypersonic Missile in Response To Western Missiles - Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that Russia fired a new hypersonic ballistic missile at a Ukrainian military factory in Dnipro in response to US and British long-range missiles being fired into Russian territory.“There was, among other things, a combat-conditions test of one of Russia’s newest intermediate-range missile systems. In this case it was a ballistic missile in a non-nuclear hypersonic version,” Putin said,according to TASS.The missile, codenamed Oreshnik, would have been banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019. “We believe that the United States made a mistake by unilaterally destroying the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019 under a far-fetched pretext,” Putin said. Ukrainian officials initially claimed Russia fired an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) into Dnipro, but that was quickly contradicted by US and other Western officials. The Pentagon later said the new missilewas based on Russia’s Rubezh ICBM model and that Russia notified the US before the launch, which was confirmed by the Kremlin.Russia’s use of its new missile came after Ukraine launched US ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles into Russian territory. The escalation came after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use the longer-range missiles, which require direct NATO support to be fired. Biden took the step despite clear warnings from Russia that the escalation would risk nuclear war and World War III. Putin said the ATACMS attack did not result in any serious damage, but the Storm Shadows attack hit a military command point, resulting in deaths and injuries. He warned the NATO-supported strikes could turn the Ukraine war into a “global” conflict.
Russia Says US Missile Defense Base in Poland Is a Potential Target - Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Thursday that a controversial US missile defense base in Poland is a potential target of the Russian military, comments that come amid soaring tensions as the US just authorized Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range NATO missiles.“Given the level of threats posed by such Western military facilities, the missile defense base in Poland has long been included among the priority targets for potential neutralization. If necessary, this can be achieved using a wide range of advanced weaponry,” Zakharova said.The Aegis Ashore anti-ballistic missile system in Poland has long been a security concern for Russia as its Mark-41 launchers are capable of fitting nuclear-capable Tomahawk missiles, which have a range of about 1,000 miles. A land-based version of the Tomahawks was previously banned by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which the US withdrew from in 2019.The US just recently opened the Aegis Ashore base in Poland, and NATO formally took control of it on Thursday. “The integration of the Aegis Ashore system into NATO’s defensive network underscores our collective commitment to ensuring the security of all Allies,” US Air Force Gen. James Hecker, the head of NATO’s Allied Air Command, said at a ceremony formalizing NATO control of the base.Zakharova said the establishment of the base follows “a series of deeply destabilizing actions by the Americans and their North Atlantic allies in the strategic sphere” and said the move “aligns with the longstanding and destructive practice of advancing NATO’s military infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders.”Russian President Vladimir Putin also said on Thursday that Russia has the right to strike the military facilities of countries that are supplying Ukraine with the missiles. “We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” he said.
Ukraine Becoming 'Global War' After Western Long-Range Weapons Used Against Russia: Putin - On Thursday President Vladimir Putin issued a stern warning in the wake of Ukraine launching long-range strikes on Russia's territory utilizing newly approved US and UK long-range missiles."Kiev has launched a long-range missile strike against military facilities located within internationally-recognized Russian territory," began his televised address by saying. He confirmed British-made Storm Shadow missiles and US-made HIMARS were fired targets located in Bryansk and Kursk Regions.He said this action threatens to turn the Ukraine conflict into a global war. "A regional Ukraine conflict instigated by the West has acquired elements of a global one," Putin spelled out, and noted that these systems cannot be used without the direct operational involvement of Western military specialists. So, that's what you wanted? Well, you've damn well got it!A hypersonic ballistic missile attack pic.twitter.com/lsKQHhMnif But he went on to claim that the inbound Western rockets were intercepted by Russian defenses. "The goals that have apparently been set by the enemy have not been achieved." He suggested injuries among some personnel at a command center in Kursk, but noted it continues full operations. He also asserted that no Western systems can counter Russia's new missiles, on display earlier in the day."The use of such weapons by the enemy cannot affect the course of the situation in the Special Military Operation zone," Putin stressed. He also said it was a big mistake for the US to pull out of the the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019.❗️President Putin issues warning to the West: 'We will act decisively in cases of escalation' pic.twitter.com/0FvoHy5vU8 Can things cool prior to Trump taking office, or will Zelensky and the West risk bigger confrontation, to likely trigger Russian hypersonic missiles or even a tactical nuke? This is indeed an ultra-dangerous slide.
Russia Says It's Ready For Any "Realistic" Ukraine Peace Plan As ICBMs Fly After Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) went airborne Thursday for the first time of the war, reportedly targeting the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, the Kremlin is emphasizing that it is still open to peace - amid this week's fresh wave of hugely escalatory policies issued from the US and UK (namely, greenlighting long-range attacks on Russian territory with West-supplied missiles).A senior Ukrainian military official earlier told the Financial Times that Russia launched an ICBM called "RS-26 Rubezh" that has a range of 3,700 miles and can strike any European capital. In the wake of this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a press briefing that Russia is still ready to consider any "realistic" peace initiative on the conflict in Ukraine.She said a realistic plan takes into account Russia's own interests and the situation on the ground. "We are open to negotiations, we are ready to consider any realistic, non-politicized initiative – of course," Zakharova said."I would like to emphasize once again: the key word is taking into account the interests of our country, the current situation on ground and guarantees of compliance with relevant agreements," she reiterated.President Putin has previously indicated that a realistic solution would hinge on nothing less than Ukraine giving up all aspirations to join NATO as well as the ceding of the four territories in the east and south, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.Ukrainian officials have throughout the war spoken as if the ceding of the eastern territories is a non-starter. However, Zelensky views Trump's plan to jump-start peace negotiations as authentic."I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision" to end the war, Zelensky told a European summit earlier this month, but followed with: "It doesn't mean that it will happen this way.""He [Trump] wants this war to be finished," Zelensky continued, but then described hasty resolution "is going to be a loss for Ukraine."
Kim Jong Un Calls for 'Limitless' Nuclear Build-Up In Response To 'Asia NATO' --North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivered a fiery speech where he stressed the importance of accelerating the country’s nuclear weapons program in response to Western threats. In the address to the North Korean Army issued days ago, Kim said, "The United States has already converted its alliance with the [South Korea] into a nuclear-based one and created an 'Asian NATO' in haste by cementing its military ties with Japan and South Korea."The North Korean leader stressed that US nuclear deployments to the region, joint war games with South Korea and Japan, and building military blocs aimed at Pyongyang are all intolerable to North Korea. Kim stressed the increasing threat from Washington justified accelerating Pyongyang’s nuclear program. "Long ago, the line of building up our nuclear forcesbecame an irreversible policy, so what remains to be done now is for these forces to get more fully ready for action so that they can carry out the mission of deterring war and the second mission at any moment."He continued, "We will build up our nation’s self-defense forces, the pivot of which is its nuclear capability, limitlessly and endlessly without satisfaction."In addition to discussing North Korea’s military tensions with the US, Kim also discussed Pyongyang’s position in what he has previously described as a "new Cold War.""As the US and other Western countries are using Ukraine as a shock force in the war against Russia, we should view it as a maneuver to enrich their real-war experience and expand the scope of military intervention all over the world."He added, "By sustaining their military assistance to Ukraine and Israel…This aggravates the international security situation, stoking fears of a third world war."
Danish Navy Hunts Down Chinese Ship Suspected Of 'Sabotaging' Baltic Sea Cables Rabobank's Michael Every told clients this morning about a very alarming situation emerging in the Baltics regions: So, if you want to worry, look at less glamorous but arguably more significant headlines that don't point to world war, per se, but to world disruption, and major world market volatility.Official allegations of sabotage were made in the EU as: two of Finland's five nuclear plants had to be shut down; a key Norwegian oilfield was shut by a power outage; the support cable on a Finnish suspension bridge broke; and two key Baltic EU data cables were severed. The Chinese vessel Yi Peng has been flagged as a possible cable culprit and at time of writing was forcibly moored in Denmark. This is likely to prompt a strong Chinese diplomatic response; and perhaps an EU one if it proves a Chinese ship damaged key seafloor infrastructure (again: this also happened to a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia in October 2023). Every's full note, titled "Once You See 'World War 3' Headlines, You Might As Well Buy Everything Because Why Not," can be read here. Update (0800ET): The Finland National Bureau of Investigation stated that, based on a preliminary investigation, it has "decided to open a criminal investigation into the damage caused to the sea cable." Here's the statement: Based on preliminary inquiries, the National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) has decided to open a criminal investigation into the damage caused to the sea cable between Finland and Germany. The suspected criminal act is currently investigated as aggravated criminal mischief and aggravated interference with communications.The National Bureau of Investigation is conducting an investigation into the damage caused to Cinia's C-Lion-1 telecoms cable. The decision to open a criminal investigation was made today on Wednesday 20 November in cooperation with the Office of the Prosecutor General. Cinia submitted a request for an investigation to the NBI on Tuesday 19 November. At this stage, the suspected criminal act is investigated as aggravated criminal mischief and aggravated interference with communications, but these may change as the investigation progresses. The police will be releasing information on the progress of the criminal investigation at a later date.
'Jews & Homosexuals Are No Longer Safe In Berlin', Warns City's Police Chief -Jews and homosexuals are no longer safe in Berlin and should hide their identity in certain neighborhoods, Berlin police chief Barbara Slowik has claimed. In a wide-ranging interview with Berliner Zeitung about security risks, anti-Semitic danger zones in Berlin, and the effects of austerity measures on police work, Slowik warned that the German capital has become less tolerant in areas with high Arab populations and the police have insufficient resources to tackle the problem.While she maintained that Berlin is “as safe as many other cities in Germany and safer than some other European capitals,”Slowik admitted there are parts of the city where heightened vigilance is necessary.“Basically, there are no no-go areas,” she said. “However, there are areas — and we have to be honest at this point — where I would advise people who wear a yarmulke or are openly gay or lesbian to be more careful. In many metropolises, you should be vigilant in certain public places to protect yourself from any crime.”Slowik pointed to neighborhoods with large Arab populations as particular areas of concern.“Unfortunately, there are certain neighborhoods in which the majority of people of Arab origin live who also have sympathies for terrorist groups,” she explained.“Open anti-Semitism is expressed there against people of Jewish faith and origin. We have initiated over 6,200 investigations since Oct. 7, 2023. A large proportion are hate postings on social media, another large proportion are damage to property, and a significant proportion are propaganda crimes.”She added, however, that 1,300 of these investigations involved violent crimes, many of which were directed at police officers during protests and public gatherings. “I am very concerned that people from the Jewish-Israeli community in Berlin are aware of the total number of anti-Semitic crimes and that this increases their fear of becoming the target of an attack.” Protests against Israel have become a daily occurrence in Berlin following the Israeli response to the Hamas terror attack in October 2023. Slowik detailed the difficulty of managing these intimidating demonstrations, stating, “Various organizers have been registering meetings regularly since Oct. 7 last year. Sometimes there is hysterical chanting and slogans that are difficult for the majority of society to bear. But all of this is allowed on German roads.” When asked whether hardcore demonstrators could be quantified, Slowik said, “We have had over 360 meetings, a large proportion of which were loud. We are registering people in the lower three-digit range who commit crimes at gatherings. However, as the police, we regularly supervise and accompany meetings with thousands of participants who behave largely peacefully.” She acknowledged the challenges of banning demonstrations, which are protected under German law. “A ban is not a panacea or a permanent solution. After Hamas’ attack on Israel, we banned 24 gatherings in the weeks that followed. It was about celebrating those murdered in Israel. So criminal offenses were approved under the guise of the right to assembly. Since then, it has been about current topics that are covered by freedom of expression.” Beyond the challenges of managing public safety, Slowik expressed deep concern about the financial state of Berlin’s police force. Chronic budget shortfalls have left officers struggling to maintain operations. “For years, the police have only been equipped in such a way that the funds are usually spent in the fall, and we then have to juggle our way through until the end of the year and find leftovers, also to finance fuel or to pay support staff for large locations,” Slowik said. She revealed that 2024’s investment funds fell far short of requirements. “This year, instead of €14 million in investment funds, which we urgently needed, only €6 million was made available to the (State Criminal Police Office) LKA. This despite the fact that the senator for the interior has already asked all areas of her department to pay in order to support her police. In 2025, we will have even less, even though we have fully justified that we need €100 million more. Criminals are taking advantage.” Slowik stressed the urgent need for technological upgrades, including AI-driven video surveillance, to relieve pressure on officers. “We urgently need object-related video surveillance, especially at embassies, also using AI. That would relieve us enormously. When it comes to property protection, we have never had such a dire situation.” The lack of funding extends to infrastructure and staffing. Slowik described the dire state of police properties, revealing that the renovation backlog has doubled under her tenure. “When I took office, the renovation backlog in police properties was €1.1 billion. It has now grown to €2.2 billion. This is also and especially due to the increased construction costs, but also because the deterioration of buildings is progressing exponentially.” She also highlighted issues with the police vehicle fleet. “Our fleet now needs €50 million immediately in order to be properly positioned again. Up to 40 percent of our cars are in the workshop every day. This will also affect the response times of the radio cars.” Slowik’s candid remarks underscore the multifaceted challenges facing Berlin’s police force. From rising intolerance and safety concerns in Arab neighborhoods to protests and financial shortfalls, the city’s law enforcement is stretched thin at a time when cultural segregation and crime are on the rise.
UK economy surprises with September contraction, grows just 0.1% in the third quarter - The U.K. economy showed a surprise contraction in September and only marginal growth in the third quarter following a strong rebound at the start of the year, initial figures showed Friday. Gross domestic product fell by 0.1% in September, following growth of just 0.2% the previous month, according to the Office for National Statistics. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 0.2% for September. For the third quarter as a whole, the British economy grew just 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. That's below the 0.2% growth expected by economists and follows an expansion of 0.5% in the second quarter of the year. U.K.'s dominant services sector also grew just 0.1% on the quarter, the Office for National Statistics said. Construction rose by 0.8%, while production slipped 0.2% in the month. It comes after inflation in the U.K. fell sharply to 1.7% in September, dipping below the Bank of England's 2% target for the first time since April 2021. The fall in inflation helped pave the way for the central bank to cut rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, bringing its key rate to 4.75%. The Bank of England said last week it expects the Labour Government's tax-raising budget to boost GDP by 0.75 percentage points in a year's time. Policymakers also noted that the government's fiscal plan had led to an increase in their inflation forecasts. U.K. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Friday she was "not satisfied" with the numbers. "At my Budget, I took the difficult choices to fix the foundations and stabilise our public finances. Now we are going to deliver growth through investment and reform to create more jobs and more money in people's pockets, get the NHS back on its feet, rebuild Britain and secure our borders in a decade of national renewal," she said in a release. Analysts flagged underlying weakness in the economy and growing risks from geopolitical tensions as potential barriers to further growth. "It's clear that the economy has a bit less momentum than we previously thought. And it's striking that the economy has only grown in two of the past six months," "Overall, despite the contraction in September, we still expect GDP growth to pick up in the coming quarters as the government's debt-financed spending boosts activity and as the drags from higher inflation and higher interest rates continue to fade," A rate cut at the BOE's next meeting in December now looks "improbable," . He said inflation risks and growing global headwinds will likely prevent policymakers from pursuing back-to-back rate cuts.
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