Fed's Collins says rate hikes may be needed to curb inflation (Reuters) - Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation pressures do not abate. "While it is not in my most likely outlook, I could envision a scenario in which some policy tightening is needed to ensure that inflation returns durably to 2% in a timely manner," Collins said in a speech to the Boston Economic Club. She added that a large part of the outlook for monetary policy comes down to how long the war in the Middle East lasts, noting that the longer the conflict goes on, the greater the risks become, particularly on the inflation front. "I see the stance of monetary policy as well positioned to adjust to the evolving outlook and balance of risks," said Collins, adding that "given this outlook and the balance of risks, I believe it will likely be important to maintain the current slightly restrictive monetary policy stance for some time." The Boston Fed president said that while changes in the U.S. economy have left it better placed to withstand energy shocks, the fact that the latest round of upward inflation pressures has come on top of already persistently strong price pressures changes her outlook somewhat. "More than five years of above-target inflation has reduced my patience for 'looking through' another supply shock," she said, adding that it is critical in the current moment to keep inflation expectations in check. Advertisement · Scroll to continue Collins warned that even a swift resolution of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran will leave global supply chains roiled and under pressure. And, "although the U.S. economy is relatively insulated, the longer the conflict persists, the greater the likelihood of more substantial negative spillovers," she said. She noted that her current economic outlook points to "resilient demand," "solid" growth and the prospect of a "modest" rise in unemployment in a job market currently defined by low-hire, low-fire conditions. She said she does not expect the current high levels of inflation to abate this year, though that could begin to happen in 2027. "The likelihood of other scenarios - with higher and more persistent inflation, more adverse labor market outcomes, or both – has increased," Collins said. The Boston Fed president is not currently a voting member of the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which left its benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range at a policy meeting late last month. Fed officials have backed away from expectations laid out in the spring that they could resume rate cuts later this year, with inflation pressures tied to the war driving up inflation to well above the central bank's 2% target. The case for Fed policy easing was dealt another blow on Friday when data showed surprisingly strong job growth in April, which gave policymakers some space to focus on inflation. Meanwhile, some other Fed officials have flagged the possibility that higher rates may be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% target. In response to audience questions after her speech, Collins addressed the looming leadership transition at the central bank, with Kevin Warsh on track to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the coming days. Powell, whose term as central bank chief expires on Friday, plans to stay on as a Fed governor for a time while waiting to see if the Trump administration's legal attacks on the central bank die down. Warsh, a former Fed governor who is awaiting a vote in the U.S. Senate to confirm him as Powell's successor, has criticized the central bank on a number of fronts and reversed long-held hawkish monetary policy views in favor of arguing for the sort of rate cuts President Donald Trump has demanded. Many policymakers and economists, however, have questioned the prudence of easing policy in the face of high inflation. "Over the history of the Federal Reserve, there have been a number of different chairs, and each chair brings their own approach, their own perspective. I think that's healthy and valuable," Collins said in reference to the leadership transition, adding that she looked forward to working with Warsh. She refrained from commenting on what changes Warsh might make at the central bank.
Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh As Fed Chair In Most Partisan Vote Ever - In a largely party-line vote, the U.S. Senate on Wednesday confirmed President Donald Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh to a 14-year term as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell whose term as chair ends this Friday.The 54-45 vote was the slimmest confirmation margin ever for a head of a central bank, reflecting fears that he'll be Trump's puppet. Trump has made no secret that he expects rates to lower under Warsh after repeatedly slamming Powell for monetary policy Trump feels is too restrictive. Steve Bannon, however, doesn't think so... Ahead of the vote, Trump ally Stephen K. Bannon used his “War Room” podcast to prepare supporters for disappointment. The former Trump strategist said fresh inflation data made it “highly unlikely” that Warsh would have “the flexibility to cut rates in June,” when he will chair the central bank’s policy meeting for the first time.“This makes it very difficult for Warsh,” Bannon said Tuesday, hours after the Labor Department reported that April inflation had jumped to 3.8 percent.His guest, conservative commentator Eric Bolling, projected no rate cuts through the end of the year and ventured that the Warsh-led Fed may even need a modest rate hike to curb inflation. –WaPo Sen. John Fetterman was the only Democrat to support Warsh.
Fed's Barr warns of tradeoffs in shrinking balance sheet - Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr warned Thursday against efforts to shrink the central bank's balance sheet, saying such moves could undermine financial stability and ultimately make the Fed more active in financial markets rather than less.
- Key takeaway: Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said shrinking the central bank's balance sheet could have unintended consequences, including increasing the Fed's footprint in financial markets.
- Expert quote: "I think shrinking the balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many of the proposals to meet this objective would undermine bank resilience, impede money market functioning and, ultimately, threaten financial stability." — Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr
- What's at stake: Kevin Warsh, the incoming Federal Reserve chair, has said shrinking the central bank's balance sheet will be a priority.
Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr Thursday warned against efforts to shrink the central bank's balance sheet, saying that effort could undermine financial stability and disrupt money markets.
Fed's Barr warns shrinking balance sheet via liquidity cuts risks stability - Fed Governor Barr said lowering liquidity rules to shrink the Fed's balance sheet is misguided and would increase financial stability risks, arguing the current policy framework has served markets well. Summary: Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr comments, delivered in New York on May 14:
- Barr said shrinking the Fed balance sheet is the wrong objective, and many proposals to achieve it would undermine bank resilience and threaten financial stability
- Lowering liquidity requirements to reduce Fed holdings would likely push banks toward Fed liquidity facilities in times of stress, increasing rather than reducing the central bank's market footprint
- The 2023 bank stress episode points to liquidity requirements needing to go up, not down
- Balance sheet size is the wrong measure of the Fed's footprint; the real focus should be on effective rate control and policy implementation
- The Fed is working to align its balance sheet duration with the broader Treasury market
- The current monetary policy implementation framework has worked well for many years and supports smooth market functioning
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr delivered a pointed defence of the central bank's current balance sheet framework on Thursday, arguing that proposals to shrink Fed holdings by loosening bank liquidity rules are misguided and could actively damage financial stability.Speaking before the Money Marketeers of New York University, Barr acknowledged that reducing the Fed's footprint in financial markets has become a prominent topic of debate. He was unambiguous in his assessment: shrinking the balance sheet for its own sake is the wrong goal, and the most commonly discussed means of achieving it would make the financial system less safe, not more streamlined.At the heart of Barr's argument is the relationship between liquidity requirements and systemic risk. Allowing banks to hold less liquidity as a mechanism for reducing reserve levels would, in his view, make those institutions more likely to lean on Fed facilities when conditions deteriorate, a dynamic that would ironically expand the central bank's role in markets rather than reduce it. He pointed directly to the bank stress episodes of 2023 as evidence that liquidity buffers need strengthening, not trimming. If anything, he said, requirements should move higher.Barr also challenged the premise that balance sheet size is the right way to measure how deeply embedded the Fed is in financial markets. In a system where creating reserves is effectively costless, the more meaningful gauge is how well the Fed is able to control short-term interest rates and implement monetary policy. On that measure, he argued, the current framework has performed reliably for years, supporting both policy objectives and the smooth functioning of money markets.He added that returning to a system of scarce reserves, as some proposals imply, would involve significant trade-offs that advocates tend to understate. The Fed is also working to shift its balance sheet duration to better match the profile of the broader Treasury market, a technical adjustment aimed at improving the coherence of its market presence.The overall thrust of Barr's remarks was a defence of the status quo against proposals that he sees as prioritising the appearance of a reduced Fed footprint over the substance of financial resilience.Barr's pushback against loosening liquidity requirements adds a dissenting voice to debates around reducing the Fed's footprint, a discussion with direct implications for bank funding costs and money market dynamics. A move toward scarcer reserves would introduce significant trade-offs for short-term funding markets, potentially lifting volatility in overnight rates and increasing banks' reliance on Fed facilities in stress periods. The 2023 banking stress episode looms large in Barr's framing, and his call for liquidity requirements to go up rather than down signals continued regulatory conservatism that could weigh on bank profitability expectations. For bond markets, the Fed's stated intention to align its balance sheet duration with the broader Treasury market is a signal worth monitoring.
CPI Inflation Blows Past Fed Rates as Core Services, Gasoline, Electricity, and Food Spike. Fed’s “Real” Rates Are now Negative By Wolf Richter - The gasoline price spike hit CPI inflation for the second month, but electricity prices also spiked, core services inflation spiked – it’s the biggie, accounting for over 60% of CPI – and food prices jumped. So it’s a mess – and even if the Fed wants to “look through” the impact of the gasoline price spike, it’s going to smack into surging core services inflation, accelerating food inflation, and surging electricity inflation driven by the AI bubble. The all-items CPI spiked seasonally adjusted by 0.64% in April from March or by 8.0% annualized, on top of the majestic spike in the prior month (blue line in the chart). Not seasonally adjusted, it was even worse: +0.85% (+10.7% annualized). Year-over-year, the all-items CPI jumped by 3.81%, the worst inflation reading since April 2023, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today (red in the chart). Negative “real” rates: The year-over-year CPI, rising by 3.8%, has now blown by the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates of 3.5% to 3.75%, thereby turning the Fed’s policy rates negative in “real” terms (adjusted for CPI). This situation of short-term borrowing costs below the rate of inflation is stimulative of inflation and of the economy. The bond market should freak out if the Fed sits on its hands and watches it play out. The CPI for core services, which excludes energy utilities such as electricity, jumped by 0.50% (+6.2% annualized) in April from March, the worst spike since March 2024 (blue in the chart below). It was driven by hot inflation in housing (Rent and Owners Equivalent of Rent, see below), lodging away from home including hotels and motels, and airline fares. It weighs over 60% in the all-items CPI. Year-over-year, it accelerated to +3.3% (red line). The “core CPI,” which excludes the spike in energy prices and food prices, jumped by 0.38% in April from March (+4.6% annualized), the worst increase since January 2025. Year-over-year, it accelerated to +2.8%, the second month in a row of acceleration and the worst reading since September (red line). The core CPI is dominated by the core services CPI, but also includes all goods except food and energy goods. The CPI for rent of primary residence spiked by 0.54% in April from March (+6.7% annualized). The spike corrected for part of the distortions in September, October, and November last year that I lambasted month after month. So this month-to-month spike in April does not reflect a spike in actual rents but a methodical correction of the distortions in September, October, and November. Actual rent inflation has calmed down quite a bit, with a widening gap between multifamily rentals and single-family rentals (my analysis on the widening gap between them in 14 of the biggest markets). Year-over-year, the CPI for rent rose by 3.3%, the biggest increase since December. The CPI for rent of primary residence weighs 7.7% in the all-items CPI. The CPI for Owners’ equivalent of rent (OER) spike by 0.53% (+6.6% annualized) in April after the same type of catch-up correction as the BLS had done to the rent CPI. Year-over-year, it accelerated to 3.3% (red line). The CPI for OER weighs 25.9% in the all-items CPI. Combined, rent and OER weigh 33.6% of the all-items CPI. OER tracks what a large panel of homeowners think their home would rent for; it’s a lazy stand-in for costs that homeowners actually face, such as homeowner’s insurance, property taxes, HOA fees, repairs and maintenance, which are not included in CPI, and which are much harder to track accurately (but other countries, such as Canada, do it). It is a fundamentally flawed metric in the CPI and should be replaced by the actual costs homeowners face.Gasoline prices, after a huge spike, tend to fall back at least partially. But electricity, provided by utilities to consumers, is a regulated service, and it just marches higher and higher, though more steadily than gasoline. The CPI for gasoline spiked by 5.4% in April from March, seasonally adjusted, and by 11% not seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year, it spiked by 28%. In terms of the price level, which the chart shows, prices are now approaching the peak of the prior bout of inflation in mid-2022. The Fed is going to “look through” this spike, expecting that it will subside eventually, but it cannot look through the non-gasoline parts of inflation. The CPI for gasoline of all types weighs 3.6% of the all-items CPI.
Yields Spike As Producer Prices Explode Higher In April -- After yesterday's hotter than expected CPI (driven in large part by Energy, but seeing some contagion into Services costs), this morning's Producer Price print for April was expected to show a major surge in annual wholesale inflation. With the eight straight monthly increase, PPI rose by a massive 1.4% MoM (vs +0.5% MoM exp) - the biggest MoM jump since March 2022, lifting PPI by a stunning 6.0% YoY (vs 4.8% YoY exp). That is the hottest PPI YoY since Dec 2022... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. Services and Energy saw the biggest rise (while construction costs actually deflated very modestly)... Core Producer Prices spiked 1.0% MoM (more than triple the +0.3% exp) smashing Core PPI YoY up 5.2% (also the hottest since Dec 2022)... And finally, one could argue this is as bad as it gets for the energy component as oil prices have stabilized... But of course, the pipeline of those energy costs is perhaps only just starting to trickle into the rest of the economy. PPI triggered a spike in 2Y yields... Now back above 4.00% at their highest since March with the market now pricing in a 50% chance of one rate-hike in 2026... It appears any chance of Warsh cutting rates (as per Trump's expectations) are off the table... for now. Finally, there is perhaps a silver lining from this ugly PPI report. Other than airfares (which rose 3%) the components that feed through into PCE inflation were pretty tame; portfolio management fees dropped 2.4% and the various medical-care components showed a maximum rise of 0.3%. That may mitigate the impact of the report, but it’s still hard to totally ignore the risk that inflation becomes a more pressing concern moving forward.
House committee strips Fed’s job mandate to focus solely on inflation control -- The House Committee on Financial Services advanced a legislative package Thursday consisting of six individual bills designed to fundamentally alter federal financial regulation and central bank policy. The markup sessions, which began on Wednesday, resulted in the passage of H.R. 5396, a bill that eliminates the Federal Reserve’s long-standing dual mandate. Historically, the central bank was legally obligated to balance maximum employment with stable prices. The newly approved text strips away the employment objective, replacing it with a singular mandate focused strictly on maintaining price stability to curb domestic inflation. This legislative push coincided with a major leadership change at the central bank. On Wednesday, the U.S. Senate voted to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh, who faced significant pressure from the Trump administration to cut interest rates, has publicly advocated for reducing the Fed’s $6.6 trillion balance sheet. Following the confirmation and the subsequent committee vote on May 14, 2026, Committee Chairman French Hill issued a statement backing the policy direction. “Yesterday, we advanced legislation that reflects the Committee’s core mission of promoting financial innovation, strengthening consumer protections, and ensuring our regulatory framework keeps pace with a rapidly evolving financial landscape,” Hill stated. Aside from monetary policy restructuring, the committee approved technology-focused measures. H.R. 4801, the Unleashing AI Innovation in Financial Services Act, passed to force regulators to launch dedicated artificial intelligence labs where private firms can test financial algorithms under temporary regulatory waivers. Furthermore, the committee voted 52-0 to pass H.R. 2152, the Artificial Intelligence Practices, Logistics, Actions, and Necessities (AI PLAN) Act. This bipartisan bill orders a joint federal agency investigation into the economic and national security threats posed by artificial intelligence tools deployed in financial fraud.Ugly, Tailing 30Y Auction Makes History With First 5%+ Yield Since The Great Quant Crash Of Aug 2007 - Moments ago, the last refunding auction of the week, the sale of $25BN in 30Y paper, made history: it was the first 30Y auction to print with a high yield above 5%, and a coupon of 5%, since August 2007... which as veteran traders will recall was the month of the historic quant crash which marked the S&P highs at the time and eventually culminated in the global financial crisis. The auction priced at a high yield of 5.046%, up sharply from 4.876% in April, and tailed the 5.041% When Issued by 0.5bps, the second consecutive tail following 4 stop-throughs. But, as noted above, what is more notable was that this was the first 5% interest rate coupon 30Y auction, and the the first 30Y auction with a high yield above 5% since... August 2007 when surging rates sparked a quant crash. Come to think of it, unlike retail momentum chasers, quants have had a terrible month. How much longer can they last? But we digress... Going back to the auction, the uglyness was all around: the bid to cover was 2.303, down from 2.385, below the 2.43 six auction average and the lowest since Nob 2025. Internals were not quite as bad, with Indirects taking down 66.6%, up from 64.1% in April and just below the 66.8% recent average. And with Directs awarded 21.74%, Dealers were left with 11.7%. Overall, this was an ugly, tailing auction, but the question on everyone's lips is whether today's quction will - like in August 2007 - be the VaR shock equivalent of a bond auction that pops this particular bubble. For the answer keep a close eye on quants who are suffering badly.
Bond Market on Edge: Treasury Yields Spike, 30-Year to 5.03%, Mortgage Rates to 6.52%, as Gulf War Reheats -- Which raises a question: How many more Fed rate cuts would it take in this inflationary era to drive the 30-year Treasury yield to 6%? By Wolf Richter -- Treasury yields from 2 years to 30 years spiked today – along with crude oil prices and inflation fears – after Iranian attacks on oil facilities in the United Arab Emirates, commercial ships, and US Navy ships. Treasury yields are like a loaded spring amid escalating inflation fears. Rising yields means falling prices for existing bondholders. The 30-year Treasury yield jumped by 6 basis points at the moment to 5.03%, the highest since May 2025, and is now 139 basis points above the Federal Funds Rate of 3.64% (EFFR, blue line), which the Fed targets with its policy rates, as the bond market is now pricing in significantly higher inflation rates over the life of the bond than the Fed’s 2% target. A dovish Fed – a Fed that threatens to “look through” surging inflation because it’s just an energy price spike or whatever – spooks the long end of the bond market. The more the Fed cuts, the higher the 30-year yield? Which raises the question: how many rate cuts would it take in this environment to drive the 30-year yield to 6%? But historically, 5% is not a high 30-year yield: between October 1979 and October 1985, the 30-year Treasury yield was over 10% and topped out at just over 15% in September 1981. It didn’t drop consistently below 5% until the Financial Crisis in late 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked by 7 basis points at the moment, to 4.45%, the highest since the top of the spike in July last year. Since end of February, the 10-year yield has surged by 50 basis points. It is now 82 basis points above the EFFR. The 3-year Treasury yield spiked by 9 basis points to 4.0%, same as the top of the spike at the end of March, and both the highest since June 2025, and both 36 basis points above the EFFR, a strong signal that the bond market is expecting rate hikes over the next couple of years, not rate cuts. The 2-year Treasury yield spiked by 8 basis points at the moment to 3.98%, the highest since June last year. It is now 34 basis points above the EFFR of 3.64%, the most since early 2023 just before the SVB collapse, after having been below the EFFR for nearly the entire time since the SVB collapse on rate cut expectations. This recent surge above the EFFR is a sign that this part of the bond market is now pricing in rate hikes, instead of rate cuts. And this expectation of rate hikes is also why the 30-year yield hasn’t yet surged toward 6%. Overall inflation rates already spiked in March due to the energy price spike. It remains up for debate to what extent exactly the energy price spike will also fuel, sorry, even higher “core” inflation, which excludes energy and food products that consumers pay for directly. The Fed favored “core” PCE price index has been rising for months and in March reached 3.2% year-over-year, with the 6-month average at 3.7% annualized. But even this core measure will trend higher as higher energy prices start filtering non-energy goods and services – part of which has already started with airline fares.The longer end of the bond market is on edge about this inflation scenario and the risk that it could spread over many years as the Fed remains unwilling to really crack down on inflation and keeps looking for excuses – such as “looking through” the energy price spike, and perhaps under the Warsh-Fed, expecting that efficiency gains from AI will somehow solve the inflation problem.And the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, which roughly tracks the 10-year Treasury yield but is higher, jumped by 8 basis points this morning, to 6.52%, according to the daily measure by Mortgage News Daily.
Iran Warns of 'Heavy Attacks' on US Assets in the Region If US Targets More Iranian Oil Tankers - -- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned that it’s ready to launch “heavy attacks” on US assets in the region if more Iranian oil tankers are targeted by the US military.“Any attack on Iranian tankers and commercial vessels will result in a heavy attack on one of the American centers in the region and enemy ships,” the IRGC said on Saturday after the US military attacked two Iranian tankers.Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian parliament’s Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, issued a similar warning on Sunday. “As of today, our restraint is over,” he said. “Any aggression against our vessels will be met with a heavy and decisive Iranian response against American vessels and bases.” On Friday, May 8, US Central Command said in a statement that a US Navy F/A-18 fighter jet launched from the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush “disabled” two Iranian tankers by “firing precision munitions into their smokestacks.” CENTCOM accused the ships of attempting to violate the “ongoing US blockade” of Iranian ports and said the attack stopped “the non-compliant ships from entering Iran.”A US F/A-18 also fired on an Iranian oil tanker on May 6, and the US bombed Iranian ports on May 7, an attack it said was a response to US Navy destroyers coming under Iranian drone and missile attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.While the US and Israel haven’t restarted the full-scale bombing campaign against Iran, it’s clear the war hasn’t ended since the US is enforcing a blockade, attacking commercial ships, and has launched at least one round of airstrikes against targets inside Iran.There have been reports of drone attacks on Gulf Arab nations this weekend, but so far, no significant attacks targeting US bases or other assets in the region.
Iran war day 73: Trump and Tehran clash over latest peace proposals | Al Jazeera - Diplomatic efforts to forge a peace deal between the United States and Iran appear to have hit a wall, with each side accusing the other of making unreasonable demands, even as continuing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are sending oil prices to new highs. The US-Israel war on Iran entered its 73rd day on Monday. Late on Sunday, US President Donald Trump flatly rejected Iran’s latest proposal to end the war without giving any reason. Days after the US floated an offer in the hopes of reopening negotiations, Iran on Sunday released a response focused on ending the war on all fronts, especially in Lebanon.Oil prices climbed after Trump’s latest comments, with the international benchmark Brent crude up 2.69 percent to $104.01 a barrel by 23:36 GMT on Sunday.Tehran’s proposal included ending the naval blockade and lifting US and international sanctions, while preserving Iran’s control over its nuclear programme and foreign policy — the issues Washington cited when launching the war.Trump called Iran’s response to Washington’s offer “totally unacceptable”, while Iranian state media said the US plan amounted to “Iran’s surrender to Trump’s greed”.On Sunday, the United Arab Emirates said it intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar condemned a drone attack in its waters on a cargo ship coming from Abu Dhabi. Kuwait said its air defences had dealt with hostile drones that entered its airspace.Here is what we know about what’s been happening in the past 24 hours:
- Iran executed a man, Erfan Shakourzadeh, 29, convicted of spying for US and Israeli intelligence services, the judiciary’s Mizan news outlet reported on Monday. It said Shakourzadeh worked at a scientific organisation involved in satellite activities and had shared classified scientific information with foreign intelligence services. He was arrested last year.
- EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels: Foreign ministers of European Union nations are meeting in the Belgian capital to discuss the war on Iran as well as the Ukraine war.
- Trump-Xi meeting: Trump is set to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday evening to discuss the war on Iran and other issues with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
- Surveys show that the war is unpopular with US voters, who are facing sharply higher petrol prices less than six months before midterm elections that will determine whether Trump’s Republican Party retains control of Congress.
- Israel is carrying out air raids on the towns of Kfar Tebnit and Choukine, according to Al Jazeera Arabic, despite a US-brokered ceasefire announced on April 16.
- Two Lebanese medics and a civilian were killed in an Israeli attack on emergency response centres in Bint Jbeil.
- The Israeli military has announced the death of Alexander Glovanyov, 47, an army driver. He was killed in combat near the border with Lebanon.
- Oil prices up: Oil prices rose by more than $4 a barrel on Monday following news of the continued stalemate that leaves the narrow Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Before the war began on February 28, the waterway carried one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows, and has emerged as one of the central pressure points in the war.
- Tankers transit the strait: While traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is at a trickle compared with pre-war times, shipping data from Kpler and LSEG showed three tankers laden with crude exited the waterway last week, with their trackers switched off to avoid Iranian attack.
- Dollar gains: The US dollar advanced for a second day against its major peers in Asian trade on Monday, supported by strong jobs data and safe-haven demand driven by a shaky ceasefire.
- Gold falls: Gold prices fell on Monday, as a lack of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations pushed oil prices higher, fuelling concerns that elevated inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer.
Trump: Iran's Response to US Proposal Is 'Totally Unacceptable' - President Trump said on Sunday that Iran’s response to the latest US proposal to reach a deal was “totally unacceptable,” signaling that the two sides are still not close to reaching a deal.“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter,” the president wrote on Truth Social.Trump made similar comments to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, saying, “I don’t like their letter. It’s inappropriate. I don’t like their response… They have been tapping along many nations for 47 years.”The president said that he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday about Iran’s response. According to Israeli media, Israeli officials are trying to convince their US counterparts to launch major airstrikes aimed at destroying Iran’s energy infrastructure.An Iranian source told Iran’s Tasnim news agency that Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s response was “of no importance” because no one “writes proposals to please Trump.” The source added that the “negotiating team should draft proposals only for the rights of the Iranian people, and when Trump is dissatisfied with them, naturally that is better.”Iranian media has reported that the Iranian response, which came after the US provided its response to a 14-point Iranian proposal, is focused on bringing a permanent end to the conflict and other hostilities in the region, including in Lebanon, where the Israeli military killed dozens of people over the weekend. Iranian sources said Iran is also asking for an immediate end to the US blockade, the lifting of US sanctions, the release of frozen assets overseas, and the ability to freely sell its oil. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iran had offered to move some of its enriched uranium to a third country, but that hasn’t been confirmed by Iranian sources, which suggest the idea is to end the hostilities before negotiating on the nuclear issue.
Iran-U.S. peace talks deadlocked after Trump rejects ‘totally unacceptable’ proposal -Negotiations deadlocked and a ceasefire on a precipice. That appeared to be the situation Monday between the United States and Iran, with both sides labeling each other’s peace proposals unacceptable after exchanging fire over the weekend. That impasse raised the threat of renewed conflict and left the global economy imperiled by the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, a tense backdrop for President Donald Trump’s state visit this week to China. Oil prices rose early Monday, with the Brent Crude international benchmark above $103 a barrel, as Tehran insisted its latest offer was “reasonable and generous” hours after Trump dismissed it as “totally unacceptable.”The Iranian Foreign Ministry accused the U.S. of “one-sided views” and “making unreasonable” and “excessive demands,” spokesman Esmail Baghaei told a news conference. “Everything we proposed,” he said, was “reasonable and generous not only for Iran’s national interests, but also for the good and well-being of the region and the world.”That came after Trump’s assessment on Sunday that the response was “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives,’” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I don’t like it.” Trump did not give details of the proposal.Baghaei said that Iran’s offer included stopping “maritime piracy against Iranian ships” — a reference to Washington blockading Iranian ports. He also called for releasing “assets belonging to the Iranian people which have been unjustly frozen for years in foreign banks due to American pressure.And he said that Iran wanted “safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz” and “establishing security and peace throughout the region, including Lebanon,” where Israel has continued attacks it says are targeting militant group Hezbollah despite a ceasefire.Trump last week abandoned a short-lived plan for military vessels to escort merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz, known as “Project Freedom.”The two sides traded fire repeatedly in the following days, with the U.S. saying its destroyers launched “self-defense strikes” after they came under attack.The U.S. has insisted those exchanges do not mean an end to the ceasefire, more than a month after the temporary deal that was initially intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.In a phone interview Friday with NBC News, Trump said “No” when asked if the conflict with Iran was over. That was echoed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who told CBS News’ “60 Minutes” on Sunday that the conflict was “not over,” and if negotiations were not successful in extracting nuclear material from Iran then “we can reengage them militarily.”That speaks to a key sticking point in the talks: the U.S.-Israeli demand that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium be removed from the country.Though Iran has always denied wanting to build a bomb, it has enriched the material beyond civilian needs, accelerating those efforts after Trump tore up the previous nuclear agreement. The U.S. has meanwhile continued its own blockade of Iran’s ports, but the Iranian regime could likely withstand a naval blockade for months, energy industry analysts and two Western officials familiar with intelligence assessments told NBC News.
Donald Trump: Iran ceasefire is on 'massive life support' - President Trump described the U.S. ceasefire with Iran as being on “life support” in the Oval Office on Monday after he dismissed Tehran’s counteroffer on nuclear talks. “It’s unbelievably weak,” Trump told reporters when asked if the ceasefire with Iran remains in place for the time being. “I would say the ceasefire is on massive life support … when the doctor walks in and says, ‘Sir, your loved one has approximately a 1 percent chance of living,’” he continued. Trump’s comments come after Iran laid out its demands in a counteroffer sent to the U.S. over the weekend. The New York Times reported the demands included war reparations, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to U.S. sanctions. The president shot down the counteroffer on Sunday, calling it “totally unacceptable.” In the Oval Office on Monday, Trump referred to the counteroffer as a “piece of garbage” and said he did not even finish reading it. Iran is also looking to separate nuclear talks from the negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the Trump administration wants nuclear commitments up front.Additionally, the U.S. is pressuring Iran to drop its claim on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has floated a long-term tolling system for global shipping through the passage.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Tehran wanted to focus on “what’s urgent,” pointing to “an end to the war in all its forms, including in Lebanon,” The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
Pentagon reveals location of nuclear-armed submarine after Trump rejects Iran proposal The Pentagon revealed the location of a U.S. Navy nuclear-armed submarine in a rare move a day after President Trump rejected the latest peace proposal from Iran. The Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine arrived in Gibraltar, a British territory on Spain’s south coast, on Sunday, the U.S. Sixth Fleet said on Monday. “The port visit demonstrates U.S. capability, flexibility and continuing commitment to its NATO allies,” the Sixth Fleet said in a press release. “Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines are undetectable launch platforms for submarine-launched ballistic missiles, providing the U.S. with its most survivable leg of the nuclear triad.” The Pentagon did not disclose the name of the submarine, one of the U.S. military’s most secretive weapons. In general, the locations of the U.S. nuclear-armed submarines are highly classified. Trump told reporters on Monday that the U.S. ceasefire with Iran is on “life support” and described it as being “unbelievably weak.” Iran laid out its demands in a counteroffer, which reportedly included war reparations, Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to U.S. sanctions. The president called the counteroffer on Sunday “totally unacceptable.” The Ohio-class is made up of 14 ballistic missile and four guided missile submarines. The submarines are stealth, are able to carry Trident II ballistic missiles and can conduct extended deterrence patrols. The Ohio-class guided missile submarines can have over 150 Tomahawk missiles on board.
Iran reveals demands Trump dismissed, punts on nuclear talks - Iran has laid out its demands in a counteroffer to the U.S. that President Trump shot down on Sunday, while seeking to push back nuclear negotiations, according to multiple reports. Iranian state media has said its negotiators demanded war reparations, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to U.S. sanctions, The New York Times reported. On Sunday, Trump blasted the Iranian government’s response to his administration’s peace proposal. “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” Trump said on Truth Social. The Iranians are also seeking to separate nuclear talks from the negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while the Trump administration wants nuclear commitments up front. The U.S. also wants Iran to drop its claims over the Strait of Hormuz, which has become a major point of leverage for Tehran. Iran has floated a long-term tolling system for global shipping through the passage. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said Tehran wanted to focus on “what’s urgent,” pointing to “an end to the war in all its forms, including in Lebanon,” The Wall Street Journal reported Monday. Baghaei said his country’s response pushed for frozen Iranian assets to be released and a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz to end, the Journal reported.According to the Journal, Baghaei said decisions on how to move forward with Iran’s nuclear program were to be settled when “the time is right.” Earlier Sunday, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported that negotiators in Tehran submitted their response to the U.S. peace proposal. The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran was launched more than two months ago, but it has settled into a relative ceasefire since early April, with both sides enforcing military blockades on the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump dismissed Iran’s response since it wasn’t a ‘letter of surrender’: Official --The United States rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal solely because it was not a “letter of surrender,” a senior Iranian diplomat has said, noting that Washington seeks to impose its will through intimidation and pressure rather than building genuine peace. “True peace cannot be built with a literature of humiliation, threats, and coercive score-settling,” Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi said in a social media post on Wednesday. Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has dismissed a peace plan to end the illegal war of aggression presented by Tehran on Sunday. He said it was “totally unacceptable.” “When the party that has directly played a role in the war, siege, sanctions, and threats through brute force rejects Iran’s response solely because it is not a letter of surrender, it becomes clear that the main issue is not peace, but the imposition of political will through the path of threats and pressure,” the Iranian deputy minister said. The official reiterated Tehran’s clear principles for any sustainable agreement. “The Islamic Republic of Iran has emphasized clear principles: the permanent cessation of war and its non-repetition, compensation for damages, lifting of the siege, removal of illegal sanctions, and respect for Iran’s rights.” “These are not maximalist demands; they are the minimum requirements of any serious, sustainable arrangement aligned with the United Nations Charter to end a crisis that began with the unlawful resort to force.” Gharibabadi pointed to inconsistencies in Washington’s posture. “One cannot speak of ceasefire while continuing the siege; talk of diplomacy while intensifying sanctions; or discuss regional stability while providing political and military support to a regime that is the source of aggression and instability.” “Such an approach is not negotiation; it is the continuation of a policy of coercion with diplomatic verbiage.”
Iran’s top negotiator: Accept our proposal or ‘American taxpayers will pay for it’ --Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, on Monday said the U.S. must accept its newest 14-point proposal or else American taxpayers “will pay for it.” “There is no alternative but to accept the rights of the Iranian people as laid out in the 14-point proposal. Any other approach will be completely inconclusive; nothing but one failure after another,” Ghalibaf wrote in a post on X.“The longer they drag their feet, the more American taxpayers will pay for it,” he added.The 14 point proposal includes an effort to end the war in 30 days, the withdrawal of American forces from Iran, removal of sanctions on Iranian assets, reparations payments, end to fighting in Lebanon and a new method to govern the Strait of Hormuz, according to NPR. The proposal has been submitted to the U.S. through Pakistan, which has been mediating talks. Iran’s latest proposal for peace follows a staunch rebuke to its response to the U.S. agreement submitted over the weekend. On Sunday, President Trump said, “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” in a post on Truth Social.The president has repeatedly urged Iran to permanently dismantle its nuclear enrichment program. Tehran previously offered to dilute some of its highly enriched uranium and give the rest to a third unspecified country.While Iran has pushed for the U.S. to accept its proposal, Trump has done the same. On Sunday, Trump said Iran will be “laughing no longer” as he continues to hammer out the framework for a peace proposal with Tehran. “For 47 years the Iranians have been ‘tapping’ us along, keeping us waiting, killing our people with their roadside bombs, destroying protests, and recently wiping out 42,000 innocent, unarmed protestors, and laughing at our now GREAT AGAIN Country. They will be laughing no longer!” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post on Sunday.
Iran’s deputy foreign minister blasts US-proposed UN resolution on Strait of Hormuz --Iran has sharply condemned Washington’s latest attempt to push a draft resolution through the UN Security Council on the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a blatant effort to distort facts and shield the real aggressors. In a statement posted on X on Monday night, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi stated that the United States, together with some of its regional allies, is once again trying to “shift the terms of the issue,” turning the consequences of military aggression and an illegal siege into an indictment against Iran, the very country that has been the victim of threats, pressure and direct attacks. “‘Freedom of navigation’ is a respected legal principle, but it cannot be interpreted selectively, politically, and detached from the United Nations Charter,” he wrote. The senior Iranian diplomat stressed that any genuine initiative on maritime security in the region cannot possibly ignore the repeated resort to force, the imposition of a naval blockade, ongoing threats, and the direct role played by the United States and the Israeli regime in creating the current crisis, while pretending to act with neutrality or legal credibility. Gharibabadi made it clear that the core problem is not the passage of ships “in a vacuum.” Rather, he said, certain governments are attempting to reframe the results of their own illegal actions in the language of so-called “international order.” “Such an approach contributes neither to de-escalation, nor to maritime security, nor to the credibility of multilateral mechanisms,” he warned. The official concluded that any text which seeks to portray the situation in the Strait of Hormuz without explicitly referencing aggression, siege, threats of force, and Iran’s legitimate right to defend its security and vital national interests “will be flawed, biased, political, and doomed to failure from the outset.” Gharibabadi’s remarks come after Washington held closed-door talks with certain Persian Gulf states last week to promote its draft resolution. The US text demands that Iran immediately halt what it calls “attacks” in the Strait of Hormuz and threatens Tehran with new sanctions and even the possible authorization of force if it refuses to comply. Iran has repeatedly stressed that its actions in the strategic waterway are purely defensive responses to years of illegal US and Israeli provocations, crippling sanctions, and attempts to militarize the Persian Gulf. Iranian officials maintain that the real threat to freedom of navigation stems from Washington’s aggressive military presence and its support for the Israeli regime’s destabilizing policies in the region.
Former MI6 Chief explains why Iran has ‘upper hand’ in war with US, Israel: 'I regret having come to this conclusion' - Former MI6 chief Alex Younger says Iran has shown unexpected resilience in its conflict with the US and Israel. A former British intelligence chief has suggested that Iran currently holds a strategic advantage in its ongoing conflict involving the United States and Israel, even as hostilities continue to escalate across the region. The assessment comes at a time when US President Donald Trump has maintained that Tehran is eager to strike a deal to end the conflict, following his announcement of a temporary ceasefire. However, Iran has pushed back against such claims, accusing Washington of acting unilaterally in its messaging. Nearly a month after the US launched military action against Iran without prior consultation with allies, former MI6 chief Alex Younger said Tehran has demonstrated unexpected resilience on the battlefield. Speaking to The Economist, Younger said, “I regret having come to this conclusion because like many MI6 officers of my generation, we faced the violence and brutality of the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] for most of our careers. “There is no love lost between us and I shed no tears for [Iranian supreme leader] Ali Khamenei, who was killed at the beginning of this war. “But the reality is the US underestimated the task and I think as of about two weeks ago, lost the initiative to Iran. “In practice, the Iranian regime has been more resilient than I think anyone would have expected. “They took some good decisions as early as last June about dispersing their military capability and delegating authority for the use of those weapons, which has given them significant extra resilience against this incredibly powerful air campaign.” Younger further explained that Iran has adopted a broader escalation strategy, targeting multiple fronts to increase pressure on its adversaries. He said Tehran has embarked on “horizontal escalation”, meaning they’ve been firing rockets at anyone in range. “At the time I thought it was nuts but in fact it has been a very good way of putting a direct price on the US – it sort of worked,” Younger said. “And then they sort of understood the significance of the energy war and held the Straits at threat, and globalised ’[the conflict].” Tensions have also intensified around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil route, where disruptions have led to rising energy prices and concerns about economic fallout worldwide. Younger claimed the regime has “played a weak hand pretty well”. He also said Trump’s own remarks about “regime change” will confirm to Iran that they’re in a “civilisational war”, a “war of existence”. “Whereas America has embarked on a war of choice,” Younger claimed. “In those terms I think that’s imbued them with more staying power than the US and certainly US counterparts. “They know that now, and that really is giving them the whip-hand.” Despite ongoing military exchanges between Israel and Iran, the situation remains fluid, with no clear resolution in sight and both sides continuing to signal strength amid rising global concern.
Trump Again Accuses Kurds of Keeping Weapons Meant To Foment an Uprising in Iran - President Trump on Monday again accused Kurdish groups of keeping weapons the US wanted to send into Iran to foment an uprising against the Iranian government. “The people [of Iran] are watching it, they want to go out on the streets, but they have no weapons, they have no guns. We thought the Kurds were going to give [them] weapons, but the Kurds disappointed us. The Kurds take, take, take,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.“So I’m very disappointed in the Kurds. I said it wasn’t going to work, by the way. I disagreed with what they did… we sent some guns with ammunition, and they were supposed to be delivered but they kept it. I said they were going to keep it, but what do I know?” the president added.Trump first made the accusation against the Kurds early last month when he said the US sent “a lot of guns” to protesters in Iran in January, but that he thought the Kurds kept them. Several Iranian Kurdish groups have strongly denied the US president’s claims.During the unrest in Iran in January, Iranian authorities said they seized US-made weapons and ammunition from foreign-backed “militants” and frequently said their forces were fighting against US and Israeli-backed “terrorist groups.” There were also armed clashes between Kurdish groups and Iranian security forces, with Reuters reporting at the time that Kurdish fighters had been entering Iran through Iraqi Kurdistan.The Kurdistan Freedom Party, or PAK, a Kurdish Iranian separatist group mainly based in Iraq, was announcing operations against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the IRGC had also reported clashes with armed Kurds. The US also reportedly smuggled Starlink terminals into Iran through Iraqi Kurdistan.
US intelligence says Iran retains significant missile capabilities: Report -Classified US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran continues to maintain substantial missile capabilities, despite repeated claims by Donald Trump's administration that the Islamic Republic’s military has been "shattered," a report says. On Tuesday, The New York Times reported that intelligence findings compiled in early May showed Iran had regained operational access to most of its missile facilities, including 30 out of 33 missile sites located along the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Citing people familiar with the classified assessments, the report said the Islamic Republic still retains around 70 percent of the missile stockpile and mobile launchers it had before the latest bout of unprovoked American-Israeli aggression that took place between February 28 and April 7. The intelligence findings also concluded that nearly 90 percent of Iran’s underground missile storage and launch facilities across the country were now "partially or fully operational." White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales, however, dismissed suggestions that the Islamic Republic had restored the damage caused to its military capabilities. According to The Times, Wales said Iran understands that its "current reality is not sustainable." She also said that anyone who "thinks Iran has reconstituted its military is either delusional or a mouthpiece" for the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). Throughout the aggression, Trump would issue back-to-back claims about the magnitude of the attacks and their purported effect on Iran's firepower. The entire episode, however, saw Iran stage sustained retaliation spanning at least 100 waves against sensitive and strategic American and Israeli targets across the region. The US president has continued to employ triumphant-sounding rhetoric, despite repeated reports and analyses suggesting otherwise.
Hegseth’s latest attack on Kelly underlines alarm over US weapons stockpiles Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s latest attack against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) is underscoring the alarm over the state of the U.S. military’s weapons stockpiles more than two months into the war with Iran. Hegseth accused Kelly, a Navy veteran and a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC), of divulging classified information regarding key U.S. munitions during his appearance on a Sunday news show, putting a spotlight not only on his ongoing feud with the Arizona Democrat but also on the high-usage rate of premier munitions against Tehran and the time it will take to replenish them. “Let’s put aside that the general thrust of munition depletion is not classified, and Kelly did not go near the details. For Hegseth to bicker over classification rather than address the core argument Kelly makes suggests Hegseth simply can’t argue on the facts,” said Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official who is now a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “It’s the national security equivalent of going ad hominem on a debate opponent when you’re poorly matched on knowledge, ability and content.” The new chapter of the feud kicked off when Kelly said he and his Senate colleagues received a “detailed” briefing on the stockpiles of long-range Tomahawk missiles; Terminal High Altitude Area Defenses (THAADs), which are used to shield against short, medium and intermediate-range missiles; Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs); and Standard Missile 3 (SM-3s.), ship-based surface-to-air missiles. “I think it’s fair to say it’s shocking how deep we have gone into these magazines, because this president got our country into this without a strategic goal, without a plan, without a timeline, and because of that, we’ve expended a lot of munitions,” Kelly said on CBS. “As for how long it will take to replenish those reserves,” the Arizona senator said. “We’re talking about years.” In response, Hegseth said Kelly, a former Navy pilot and NASA astronaut, was “blabbing on TV (falsely & dumbly) about a *CLASSIFIED* Pentagon briefing he received.” “Did he violate his oath…again,” Hegseth wrote in a social platform X post on Sunday, adding that the Pentagon’s legal counsel “will review” his comments to the network. Kelly responded Sunday night, sharing a video from Hegseth’s recent testimony in front of SASC that showed the Arizona Democrat asking the Pentagon chief how long it will take for the U.S. military to replenish its weapons stockpiles. “I think that’s exactly the right question, too, senator,” Hegseth told Kelly at the time. “Because the time frame we were existing under was unacceptable. And what this budget does, I mean, months and years. I mean, we’re building new plants in real time.” Hegseth added the specific timeline for replenishment of those munitions — including JASSM, precision-guided cruise missiles — “depends on the weapon system” and slammed the Biden administration for sending munitions to Ukraine. Rachel E. VanLandingham, a national security law expert and former Air Force active duty judge advocate who has been critical of Hegseth’s leadership of the Pentagon, said Hegseth’s threat is part of an “ongoing campaign” against Kelly and the Pentagon’s potential case against the senator has “no legal leg to stand on.” “Show me what classified information that he revealed. Show me. Show me something that wasn’t already in the public arena. There isn’t anything there,” VanLandingham said in an interview with The Hill on Monday. But Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), a Hegseth ally who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, agreed with the Pentagon head, saying Kelly needs to be “held accountable now.”
Trump troop threats to Europe fail to move the needle on Iran --President Trump’s snap decision to pull 5,000 U.S. troops out of Germany isn’t moving the needle in pushing European nations to enter the U.S. war in Iran or help Washington reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s move – which came amid an escalating dispute with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz – has only reinforced European nations’ plans to take care of their own security rather than capitulate to Trump’s demands. The allies, weary of Trump’s constant threats to withdraw U.S. forces from the European continent entirely and smarting from the economic fallout of the Iran war, appear to have carried on with business as usual, according to experts and country leaders themselves. “The Europeans are trying to find ways to contribute, certainly to resolving or to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once there is a broader settlement, but that’s driven by their own interests. They’re not being impacted by the troop withdrawal from President Trump,” said Jörn Fleck, the senior director with the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council think tank. The U.S. has most troops in Europe stationed in Italy, in Spain, the United Kingdom, Poland and Germany – with the latter housing the most at roughly 36,000 U.S. service members. The country is home to the Ramstein Air Base, the largest American military site on the continent and the headquarters for U.S. Air Force in Europe. The military bases serve as information and logistical hubs, supporting American military efforts outside the continent, such as the U.S. war in Iran, and serving as a deterrent to Russia. But Trump, frustrated by NATO allies’ failure to support the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran – namely by withholding the use of their bases or airspace for the operation or failing to send their ships to help open the Strait of Hormuz – has railed against the countries, which he accused of being “cowards.” Trump earlier this month said he would “probably” remove American troops from Spain and Italy as Rome has “not been of any help to us,” and Madrid has been “absolutely horrible.” Spain and Italy have denied U.S. military planes taking part in the Iran war from using their bases. And after Merz said that the U.S. “is being humiliated by the Iranian leadership,” and called the war “ill-considered to say the least,” Trump responded by announcing the U.S. troop reduction in Germany, with threats to possibly withdraw more. The response has been measured rather than apologetic. “I think the Germans have been at pains to suggest that they expected something like this. It’s a relatively small number of U.S. troops, and they will continue to step up themselves and try to fill the gaps,” Fleck said. “That’s the official approach, but I think underneath that, there is a real frustration.” Wary of Trump’s loyalty to the NATO alliance, Germany along with the rest of Europe has steadily increased its defense spending, cognizant of the U.S. desire to hand off defenses of the continent. Last month Berlin released its first military strategy since World War II, identifying Russia as the primary threat and setting a goal to have the strongest army in Europe by 2039. “The spat between Trump and Merz and then the troop withdrawal, it will just reinforce European determination and European efforts to reduce vulnerabilities, to develop European capabilities and to drive forward European sovereignty efforts,” Fleck said. I “I think this very latest episode will just sort of accelerate or intensify that determination.”
German reluctance to back US war against Iran signals deepening transatlantic rift: Analyst -As the US-Israeli war of aggression against Iran continues to reshape geopolitical alliances, Germany’s position as a traditional American ally in Europe has come under renewed scrutiny. This transatlantic rift is no longer just diplomatic tetchiness, according to an analyst. Dr. Frank Umbach, the head of the program for International Energy Security at the Centre for European Security Strategies (CESS GmbH) in Munich and a consultant to German ministries of foreign affairs and defense, made these remarks in an interview with the Press TV website. He said Berlin’s reluctance to provide logistical support to the US in the war against Iran stems from a fundamental breakdown in the American-European alliance. German and other European governments have argued that “it is not our war,” pointing to the fact that they were not given advance notice as would be expected within the NATO framework. However, this does not mean Europe is indifferent to the crisis. As the world’s second-largest exporting economy, Germany remains acutely dependent on free shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained closed to US and allied ships since the unprovoked and illegal war was launched on Iran in late February. Dr. Umbach also noted that Germany appears to view the US as a less reliable strategic partner. This perception has been reinforced by the withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Germany, a move described by the German Chancellor as part of a broader pattern in which “the US is being humiliated by Iran’s leadership.” The Trump administration had already called for higher European defense budgets and greater responsibility for Europe’s own security, citing a strategic pivot to Asia. The troop reduction, therefore, was not entirely surprising. However, after the German Chancellor voiced strong criticism of the US policies towards Iran, Trump suggested that the withdrawal numbers might increase further. On the question of energy security, the analyst said 89 percent of all oil and 83 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the Persian Gulf states go to Asia. Nevertheless, a prolonged blockade – lasting months – could lead to jet fuel shortages in Europe. More indirectly, Europe would suffer economically from disruptions to Asia’s supply chains, on which European industries heavily rely. Furthermore, any worldwide spike in oil and LNG prices would force Europe to pay significantly higher costs for its fossil fuel imports, creating substantial economic pressure even without a direct supply cut-off.
Iranian Foreign Ministry Says US Pushing 'Unreasonable Demands' Shaped by Israel - Iran’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that the US was making “unreasonable demands” that are being shaped by Israel, comments that come after President Trump rejected Tehran’s latest proposal to end the war.“We did not demand any concessions. Our demand is legitimate: demanding an end to the war, lifting the blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to US pressure,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters at a press conference. “Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing security in the region and Lebanon were other demands of Iran, which are considered a generous and responsible offer for regional security,” he added.Baghaei also said that Tehran’s current focus is on ending the war, not its nuclear program, appearing to contradict Western media reports that said Iran’s latest response to the US included details on the nuclear issue.“At this stage, our focus is on ending the war. As for what decisions will be made later regarding the nuclear issue, Iran’s enriched materials, and enrichment-related discussions, or which options we might consider, these are matters we will certainly discuss when the time is right,” Baghaei said.President Trump on Monday doubled down on his rejection of Iran’s latest proposal, calling it a “piece of garbage” and warning that the ceasefire is on “life support.”The US bombed Iranian ports last week and has attacked several Iranian commercial ships, but further escalation could be in the cards as Trump has been threatening to restart the full-scale bombing campaign. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, warned on Monday that Iran is ready to respond to any US attacks.
Axios: Israel Wants Trump To Order US Special Forces Operation To Seize Iran's Enriched Uranium - News From Antiwar.com -The Israeli government wants President Trump to order a US special forces operation to secure Iran’s uranium that’s enriched at the 60% level, according to a report from Axios, an operation that is fraught with risks and would mean the resumption of full-blown war in the region.Israeli officials told Axios reporter Barak Ravid, a former IDF intelligence officer, that Trump was hesitant to order the operation because of the risks.In an interview with 60 Minutes that aired on Sunday, Netanyahu hinted that he wanted to see US forces go into Iran to seize the uranium, which is believed to be buried under rubble following the June 2025 US airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.Asked how the uranium should be physically removed, Netanyahu said, “You go in, and you take it out.”When asked if it would involve either US or Israeli special operations forces, he said, “Well, I’m not gonna talk about military means, but what President Trump has said to me, ‘I want to go in there.’ I mean, he’s said that publicly. He’s said it– and I think he’s right. And I think it can be done physically. That’s not the problem. If you have an agreement, and you go in, and you take it out, why not? That’s the best way.”Netanyahu was then asked if the uranium could be taken out by force and said, “Well, you’re gonna ask me these questions. I’m gonna dodge them, so you can ask me that second time, third time, and I’ll dodge it second time, third time.”President Trump said in an interview over the weekend that the US was surveilling where it’s believed the uranium is buried and threatened to kill anyone who attempted to recover it. “We’ll get that at some point… We have it surveilled. I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watching that… If anybody got near the place, we will know about it — and we’ll blow them up,” he said.The president is considering restarting the full-scale bombing campaign against Iran as he continues to enforce a blockade against Iranian ports, which has involved US attacks on Iranian commercial vessels.
Trump Posts AI Photos Showing Attacks on Iranian Military as He Considers Restarting Full-Scale Bombing Campaign - President Trump on Tuesday morning posted a series of AI-generated photos on his Truth Social account, including some showing US military attacks on Iranian military assets, a bizarre threat that comes as he is considering restarting the full-scale bombing campaign against the Islamic Republic.“Lasers: Bing, Bing, Gone!!!” read one image, which showed a US warship shooting down an Iranian aircraft with a laser. Another AI image depicted a US drone firing missiles at Iranian boats and read, “BYE BYE, ‘Fast Boats.'” The president’s posting spree came after CNN reported that he is now much more seriously considering resuming “major combat operations” against Iran, though a decision isn’t expected before he departed for China on Tuesday, and it’s unlikely that he would restart the bombing while he’s in Beijing.US officials speaking to Axios have previously suggested that if a deal isn’t reached with Iran by the time Trump returns from China, the US and Israel will resume full-scale bombing. The war could flare up at any moment as the US continues enforcing a blockade on Iran and has attacked and bombed Iranian commercial ships and Iranian ports over the past week. Trump rejected Iran’s latest response in the indirect negotiations that are taking place through Pakistan as “totally unacceptable,” and Tehran has made clear that it won’t back down on its core demands and is ready to face another round of US-Israeli bombardments.
Pentagon Planning To Rename Iran War 'Operation Sledgehammer' If US Restarts Bombing Campaign - The Pentagon is considering renaming the war with Iran from “Operation Epic Fury” to “Operation Sledgehammer” if President Trump decides to restart the full-scale bombing campaign against Iran, NBC News reported on Tuesday. Sources also told NBC that the US currently has more firepower in the region before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28. “We are in a better spot now than on February 27,” a US official said. “We have more firepower and capability.”The potential name change is part of the Trump administration’s effort to maneuver around the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which was an attempt to rein in the Executive Branch’s disregard of the Constitution’s requirement that Congress has the sole power to declare war.The resolution does not supersede the Constitution and states that to introduce US forces into hostilities, the president must have a declaration of war or authorization from Congress, or a “national emergency created by attack upon the United States, its territories or possessions, or its armed forces,” none of which the Trump administration had before launching the war. The War Powers Resolution also includes a 60-day deadline for the president to end any unauthorized military action or obtain authorization from Congress, which has been falsely reinterpreted to give the president 60 days to wage war without congressional authorization. The 60-day deadline for the Iran war expired on May 1, and the administration has tried to claim that the ceasefire should have paused the clock, but the US has continued to enforce a blockade on Iran, which means the US military is still engaged in hostilities against the country. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has tried to frame the ongoing US military actions in the region as “defensive operations,” but they are all part of the war that the US and Israel started on February 28. He has also declared that “Operation Epic Fury” was over, though according to NBC, the Pentagon has continued to use the name when discussing its operations. A White House official told NBC that the administration believes giving the war a new name would effectively restart the War Powers clock, and that “Operation Sledge Hammer” is not the only name under consideration. Congress has failed in its duty to assert its War Powers over the president, as multiple Iran-related War Power Resolutions have been voted down in both the House and the Senate. The NBC report comes as a resumption of the full-scale bombing campaign appears likely, as President Trump has rejected Iran’s latest response in the indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan as “totally unacceptable” and Tehran has made clear that it’s not going to back down on its core demands.
House Narrowly Defeats Iran War Powers Resolution in 212-212 Vote - The House on Thursday narrowly defeated a War Powers Resolution that would have directed President Trump to end the US war against Iran, as the US continues to enforce a blockade of Iranian ports and is considering restarting the full-scale bombing campaign.The bill failed in a tie vote of 212-212, with three Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie (KY), Tom Barret (MI), and Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) — voting in favor of ending the war. Just one Democrat, Rep. Jared Golden (ME), voted no. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH), who supported a previous War Powers Resolution, voted against the bill. The vote marked the third time a War Powers Resolution to end the war against Iran was brought to the floor of the House and was the closest the bill came to passing. The first bill failed 212-219, and the second was blocked 213-214-1 (Davidson voted present). The Senate has voted seven times on an Iran War Powers Resolution, and the latest, held on Wednesday, came closest to passing. The bill failed in a 49-50 vote, with three Republicans — Senators Rand Paul (KY), Lisa Murkowski (AK), and Susan Collins (ME). Just one Democrat has consistently opposed the resolutions: Sen. Jon Fetterman (PA).While Trump administration officials have declared the 1973 War Powers Resolution “unconstitutional,” they have also been desperately trying to circumvent the law, which was passed to rein in the Executive Branch’s disregard for the Constitution’s requirement that Congress has the sole power to declare war.
Israeli and Lebanese Officials Meet in Washington To Discuss 'Ceasefire' That Israel Continues to Disregard - Over the course of Israeli attacks on Wednesday, the Lebanese Health Ministry reported at least 22 people killed, including eight children. That’s particularly relevant, because Thursday talks were scheduled in DC between Israeli and Lebanese officials regarding extending the current “ceasefire” that expires this weekend.Israeli officials seem to be going into the talks particularly upbeat, saying they’re certain they and Lebanon share the same goal of destroying Hezbollah. That may be the case, but the road from A to B seems to involve a lot more dead Lebanese children than Lebanon would prefer.While a ceasefire is indeed still considered desirable, at least in theory, in Lebanon, the goal in these talks is to actually get Israel to agree to a ceasefire that functions in such a way that Israel will stop attacking Lebanon and killing dozens of people pretty much daily.That’s a tall order, because Israel appears to view the extent ceasefire, where no fire is actually ceased, as right in their wheelhouse, and the goals in the extension talks for them seem to center on the idea of extending how much of Lebanon they’re actively occupying.Israeli officials aren’t even attempting to provide the illusion that the present ceasefire is working for Lebanon. Overnight on the eve of the talks airstrikes in Nabatieh killed 10 people, including multiple children. When Hezbollah says its their view there’s no ceasefire in place at all, it’s increasingly difficult to dispute that point.UNICEF has estimated at least 200 children were killed so far in the Israeli war on Lebanon, and another 800 wounded. This includes 59 casualties just in the past week, during the much-vaunted ceasefire.The expectation is that some ceasefire of sorts will be announced after the two-day talks, but whether it actually ceases any fire is the real question, and history isn’t on their side in that regard, with Israel’s preference not to be limited in their firing, and Lebanese officials likely still seeing a toothless, do-nothing ceasefire as preferable to no ceasefire at all, even if the distinction, from a casualty perspective, is entirely theoretical.
Lebanon Ceasefire Extended 45 Days, Israel Attacks Medical Center, Killing Paramedics - - Multiple days of negotiations in Washington D.C. have ended with Israel and Lebanon extending their ceasefire for an additional 45 days. Underscoring that Lebanese officials failed to get any assurances about the ceasefire working any better than it was before, Israel immediately attacked a medical center in southern Lebanon.The US promised to proactively faciliate military-to-military communications between Israel and Lebanon, since Israel rarely communicates with Lebanon’s military. But since Israel is accustomed to attacking Lebanon without any coordination with Lebanon, its not clear what this would actually accomplish, and indeed little appears to have changed since the extension.Israel issued new evacuation orders amid the announcement, leading to more displaced people fleeing north into the parts of Lebanon that notionally aren’t under attack but realistically get hit with Israeli airstrikes intermittently as well. Then an attack on Hanouf’s medical center came.At least six people were killed in the attack, according to Lebanese officials, including three paramedics. This adds to the ever-growing number of health care workers killed in the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, which has seen scores of paramedics killed in Israeli airstrikes on ambulances, and yet more killed when medical centers like this one come under inevitable attack.The IDF has yet to comment on exactly why they attacked this particular medical center, particularly so soon after the ceasefire extension. The Lebanese Health Ministry suggested the attack was in violation of international law.The ceasefire, during which hundreds of Lebanese have been killed, was scheduled to expire this weekend, but will now continue through the end of June, at least on paper. Whether anything will actually be changed for the 1.2-1.5 million displaced Lebanese people remains to be seen, but the early evidence is not promising.
Iran Specifies 5 Demands To Restart Peace Talks With US - Iran on Tuesday revealed its demands in a counteroffer to the United States that President Trump shot down on Sunday, which has put the whole conflict and Pakistan-mediated talks in a holding pattern and stalemate, as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked.The demands hinge on war reparations, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and an end to US sanctions - things which the White House balked at, with war reparations especially being focus of rejection by the US side, and the lack of taking up the nuclear issue, which Iran has insisted is a non-starter and would only be dealt with after the war is settled.Trump had previously made clear on Truth Social that "I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!" Al Jazeera correspondent Ali Hashem has listed the following five conditions that it sees as the basis for reentering talks:
- Ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon
- Lifting all sanctions
- Releasing frozen Iranian assets
- Compensation for war damages and losses
- Recognition of Iran’s sovereign rights over the Strait of Hormuz
Again, all this according to Tehran must be agreed to while at the same time Iran is pushing back against nuclear negotiations.In a Monday press briefing Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei had publicly alluded to several of these, including in his words, "Demanding an end to the war, lifting the blockade and piracy, and releasing Iranian assets that have been unjustly frozen in banks due to U.S. pressure."Also, there was mention of "Safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing security in the region and Lebanon were other demands of Iran, which are considered a generous and responsible offer for regional security" - before talks could begin in good faith.Tehran apparently feels it can weather the tightening economic noose its under, given Tanker Trackers on Tuesday said Iran has not successfully exported any crude oil by sea over the past 28 days.
Trump Says Financial Situation for Americans Not a Factor in His Decision Making on Iran War - -- President Trump said on Tuesday that the financial situation for Americans was not a factor in his decision-making when it came to Iran, comments that come as Americans continue to face rising gas prices as a result of the war the US and Israel started.“Not even a little bit,” the president told reporters before departing for China when asked to what extent the financial situation for Americans was motivating him to make a deal with Iran.“The only thing that matters, when I’m talking about Iran, they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon … that’s the only thing that motivates me,” he added.While Trump has continued to frame the conflict about preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear bomb, there was no evidence either before the June 2025 war or the current one that Tehran was pursuing nuclear weapons.The average price of gas in the US is now at $4.50 per gallon, a 51% increase since the US and Israel launched the war with major strikes on Iran on February 28. There’s no sign that the trend will reverse as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, and all signs indicate the US and Israel may restart the full-scale bombing campaign, which will likely result in Iranian attacks on more oil infrastructure in the region.
Rubio warns Iran’s growing drone, missile arsenal posed 'intolerable risk' - Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran’s rapidly expanding drone and missile capabilities were nearing a point where they could overwhelm regional defenses, calling the threat an “intolerable risk.” “Iran was building up a conventional capability where they would have so many missiles and so many drones that they could overwhelm anybody's defenses,” Rubio told Sean Hannity aboard Air Force One en route to Beijing for a high-level summit with President Xi Jinping. “Once they had that, nobody could do anything about their nuclear program, because they would say, ‘If you attack our nuclear program, we will wipe out six countries in the Gulf region, and you won't be able to defend against it,’” he said. Describing Iran’s military assets, Rubio said, “You get these swarms of drones, these swarms of rockets. They were on the verge, in a year from now, they would have been, at that point, the president said, that’s an intolerable risk.” Rubio outlined how people are “struggling to make that connection” but said it was a very real one. “They were building such a high number; they were going to have so many drones and missiles that no one could attack Iran,” Rubio added. “The result would be catastrophic for the region, and once they had that immunity, then they would break out toward a weapon. We knew that the president was not going to allow that to happen,” he said.
Iran’s Message to Trump: Accept Defeat or Return to War – WANA – Iran has effectively blocked every path through which the United States could exit the war claiming victory. At this point, fulfilling the Islamic Republic’s maximum demands is seen as the only way for Trump to escape the Persian Gulf quagmire: accepting Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz, ending the war on all fronts, dismantling U.S. military bases across the region, paying reparations, and recognizing Iran’s nuclear rights. Since the White House views these conditions as an outright defeat, it continues to resist accepting them. The key point is that Iran has deliberately structured its demands in a way that leaves little room for bargaining. Tehran appears to be in no rush. It has placed its maximalist and victory-oriented demands on the table while already treating the United States as the losing side. According to this narrative, that is the current reality: America came intending to kill, overthrow, divide, seize uranium stockpiles, and dominate Iran’s oil resources. Instead, it suffered humiliation, its bases were destroyed, and it lost access to the Strait of Hormuz. Yet Washington still wants to portray itself as the victor and refuses to acknowledge defeat. A woman walks near a billboard featuring an image of the late Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, May 11, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) If the United States refuses to accept this reality, Iran, according to this view, has no intention of retreating from its demands either. That leaves only one possible outcome: a return to war. But the issue is that the current ceasefire itself is portrayed as the result of America’s defeat on the battlefield, meaning any renewed conflict would effectively resume the same failed war. To Trump’s misfortune, time is also said to be working against American interests. Analysts argue that if the current situation continues for another two weeks, many countries could face severe crises, while the United States itself would experience dramatic inflation and price shocks. Under such circumstances, what would happen if Washington reentered the war and the conflict continued for at least another 40 days? A billboard with a graphic design about the Strait of Hormuz on a building in Tehran, Iran, May 6, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Iran had previously warned that if war were imposed on it, Tehran would not allow the other side to end it whenever they wished. Supporters of this argument point to the “Ramadan War,” claiming that after two weeks, the Americans were already sending ceasefire messages, while Iran allegedly continued the conflict for another 25 days. The implication is that under current conditions, prolonged conflict would damage the opposing camp even more severely. At the same time, Benjamin Netanyahu is described as working aggressively to keep Trump locked into the war. From this perspective, the Israeli prime minister does not care how many American soldiers are killed, how many Iranians die, or whether Arab countries suffer. His only concern is his own political interests. Trump, meanwhile, looks at the situation and sees that the aircraft carriers are his, the fighter jets are his, the refueling aircraft are his, the AWACS systems and Black Hawks and MQ-9 drones are all his—so why should he not believe he can defeat Iran? Why not try once again? Yes, those temptations exist. But so do the traps surrounding him. On one side, Trump appears readying himself for war, while on the other he sees that he possesses no decisive winning card. He has everything, this argument says, except divine support. A man holds an Iranian flag and a picture of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on a street in Tehran, Iran, May 6, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Trump will likely soon realize that the Iranians are playing him strategically; perhaps he already understands it. What seems clear in this narrative is that nobody in Iran intends to reach an agreement with Trump unless he fully accepts defeat. Talk of negotiations is viewed merely as a tactic to buy time. Trump, according to this perspective, must lose. It is presented not as a possibility, but as an inevitability. Trump must pay a price. America must pay a price. Trump must weaken America, strip it of credibility, and bring down American hegemony. Supporters of this line of thinking point to statements previously attributed to Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. In any case, the argument concludes that what must be done—and what is already being done—is steadfast resistance, whether through war or without it. Both paths have their hardships and their advantages. Short-term suffering, it says, must be endured in pursuit of long-term gains. Iran today is portrayed as standing precisely at that point. According to this analysis, offering concessions or flexibility toward Trump is not Iran’s objective, nor is it the intention of its negotiating team. The country is described as being at a peak level of internal coordination.
China sees no point in US-Iran conflict persisting: Foreign ministry The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Friday that it saw “no point” for the U.S. conflict with Iran to continue, as President Trump claimed he reached agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping on key issues in the war, such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz.“There is no point in continuing this conflict which should not have happened in the first place,” a Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, sidestepping questions about whether Trump and Xi discussed Iran during their bilateral meeting. “To find an early way to resolve the situation is in the interest of not only the U.S. and Iran, but also regional countries and the rest of the world,” the statement continued, calling for a ceasefire and further diplomatic negotiations.The assessment came at the end of a two-day, high-stakes summit between the leaders of the world’s two most powerful nations that focused on trade, Taiwan and the situation in the Middle East.It was not immediately clear whether Trump and Xi reached any formal agreements on Iran, but the U.S. president had been pressing China to leverage its position as the main buyer of Iranian oil to pressure Tehran into a deal.China purchases roughly 90 percent of Iran’s exported oil, generating tens of billions in annual revenue for the regime, according to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.Trump told reporters Friday the U.S. and China feel “very similar” about wanting the two-month conflict to end, saying “we don’t want them [Iran] to have a nuclear weapon” and “we want the strait open.”The Strait of Hormuz has been a key point of tension in the standoff between the U.S. and Tehran, with a sustained halt in shipping traffic roiling global oil prices for months. The waterway carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply during peacetime.
Hegseth boosts veteran benefits bill that key Republicans have opposed - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave a rare boost last week to a bipartisan bill that key Republicans, including the chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee (SASC), have opposed over cost concerns. The legislation, named after Major Richard Star, would provide about 54,000 combat-injured, medically retired service members retirement pay and Veterans Affairs (VA) disability concurrently. Star was a U.S. Army combat engineer who was diagnosed with cancer due to toxic burn pit exposure. Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), who has championed the bill in the upper chamber, brought up the legislation during a SASC hearing last week on the Pentagon’s $1.5 trillion budget request for fiscal 2027. “Well, what I would like is your commitment that you will support the Major Richard Star Act,” Blumenthal said. “As I have said in the past to other organizations, we support the [Major] Richard Star Act,” Hegseth said in response. While veterans groups have pushed for the bill, which was first introduced in 2023, its potential passage was blocked by Republican senators last year and again earlier this year over cost concerns. In October, Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), SASC chairman, said that, like Blumenthal, he respects and supports veterans. “However, my colleague is asking for an entitlement that does amount to a double benefit that we cannot afford,” Wicker said on the Senate floor. “We’re talking between $9 billion and $10 billion on the Department of Defense Authorization Act and we’re talking about adding a bill —a piece of legislation that really belongs in another jurisdiction, as my friend acknowledged.” Similarly, Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) blocked the legislation from unanimous consent passage and a motion to give the measure a floor vote in March, saying the bill would run the government more than $70 billion over the first decade. The Pentagon is asking for $1.5 trillion in spending for next year, a request that has received broad support from the GOP. The Major Richard Star Act already has the backing of nearly 80 senators and more than 320 House members. Veterans groups were hopeful that Hegseth’s endorsement could provide the momentum to get it across the finish line.
FBI offers $200K reward in search for ex-Air Force counterintelligence specialist who defected to Iran - The FBI is offering a $200,000 reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of a former U.S. Air Force counterintelligence specialist accused of spying for Iran, who defected to the country nearly a decade ago.Monica Witt was indicted in February 2019 by a Washington, D.C., federal grand jury on espionage charges, stemming from allegations that she transmitted classified national defense information to the Iranian government.Daniel Wierzbicki, special agent in charge of the FBI Washington Field Office’s Counterintelligence and Cyber Division, said in a Thursday statement that Witt “allegedly betrayed her oath to the Constitution” by “defecting to Iran and providing the Iranian regime National Defense Information and likely continues to support their nefarious activities.”“The FBI has not forgotten and believes that during this critical moment in Iran’s history, there is someone who knows something about her whereabouts,” Wierzbicki added.Witt served as an intelligence specialist and special agent for the Air Force between 1997 and 2008, where she was trained in Farsi and deployed overseas, including to the Middle East, on classified counterintelligence missions, according to The Associated Press.
House To Force Vote on Bill to Give Ukraine $1.3 Billion in Military Aid - - A discharge petition to bring a bill to the floor of the House to send additional military aid to Ukraine has reached the required 218 signatures to force a vote, which is expected in the coming weeks. The Ukraine Support Act was introduced last year by Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-NY), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and would provide Ukraine with $1.3 billion in military aid with an option to provide up to $8 billion in loans for additional military equipment. In addition to the military aid, the bill would also increase sanctions on Russia. The Trump administration has continued sending weapons to Ukraine, but through a NATO initiative known as the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL), under which US allies pay for the military equipment. The bill was not supported by the White House or House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), which is why it required a discharge petition. Meeks had been trying to gather enough signatures for months, and California Rep. Kevin Kiley, who just switched his party affiliation from Republican to Independent, was the 218th lawmaker to sign on. Republican Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) and Don Bacon (NE) had already signed the petition. The news comes after Russia and Ukraine returned to full-scale war following a three-day ceasefire that failed to hold, though there did appear to be a de-escalation of attacks. While the US and Russia have insisted recently that the diplomatic efforts to end the war have continued, there’s no sign that the four-year-old conflict will end any time soon. Russia continues to maintain that it won’t end the war until Ukraine cedes what territory it still controls in the Donbas, something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuses to do. Ukraine continues to be rocked by corruption scandals, as Andriy Yermak, a former top aide to Zelensky, has been charged in a graft probe, and polling shows that the majority of Ukrainians believe government corruption poses a greater threat to the country’s development than Russia.
GOP slams Pentagon for abrupt cancellation of Poland troop rotation - Republican lawmakers on Friday grilled Army leaders over the Pentagon’s seemingly last-minute decision to cancel the temporary deployment of 4,000 troops to Poland, with House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) saying the panel is “not happy.” “We don’t know what’s going on here, but I just tell you we’re not happy with what’s being talked about, particularly since there’s been no statutory consultation with us,” Rogers told Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and acting Army Chief of Staff Gen. Christopher LaNeve during a hearing. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth this week ordered the cancellation of the 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team’s deployment to Poland, an unexpected development that came amid a rift over the Iran war between President Trump and European allies. Under questioning from Rep. Austin Scott (R-Ga.) on Friday, Driscoll said the rotation had been canceled “just a couple days ago,” while LaNeve said the decision was made in the “last two weeks.” Neither man could give an answer as to why. “These are major decisions that appear to many of the members of this committee to be last-minute decisions,” Scott said. Polish officials, like lawmakers in the U.S., were “blindsided” by the decision, according to Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who said he received a call from the country on Thursday about the cancellation. “They called me yesterday, they did not know, they were blindsided,” Bacon told Driscoll and LaNeve. “These are some of our best allies, and they had no idea. They still don’t know what the plan is.” The decision, first reported by Army Times, came two weeks after Trump ordered the Pentagon to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany, a decision that was also criticized by Rogers and his counterpart, Senate Armed Services Committee Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.). The two said that “prematurely reducing” the U.S. military presence in Europe “sends the wrong signal” to Russian President Vladimir Putin. It also came roughly seven months after the U.S. informed allies that it is pulling some American troops from NATO’s eastern flank, including Romania. That plan also angered Rogers and Wicker, who said Congress had not been consulted prior to the decision. Pressed on the decision not to send the combat brigade to Poland, LaNeve said the head of U.S. European Command “received the instructions on the force reduction,” and he worked with him “in close consultation on what that force unit would be.”
Trump eyes Venezuela as 51st state, citing $40 trillion in oil wealth | Fox News --President Donald Trump is eyeing oil-rich Venezuela as a potential 51st state as officials continue to court oil companies for investments in the South American country following the U.S. intervention that removed President Nicolas Maduro from power. Trump said in a phone call with Fox News that he is motivated by the estimated $40 trillion value of oil in Venezuela, adding that he is popular with the country's citizens. "Venezuela loves Trump," Trump said. After U.S. military officials captured Maduro in January, whom the Justice Department indicted on narco-terrorism charges, Trump said the United States would "run" the country during its transitional period and work with Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. In January, Trump pledged to have the U.S. oil industry "up and and running" again in Venezuela. Major energy companies like Exxon and Conoco were expelled from the country nearly 20 years ago when former President Hugo Chavez nationalized the oil industry, leaving Chevron as the only U.S. major oil company with investments in Venezuela. For months, Cabinet officials and White House energy advisors have held meetings with top oil executives from major companies, urging them to invest in Venezuela. With the Trump administration now managing Venezuela’s oil sector, exports in April reached more than 1 million barrels per day, the highest level since 2018. "As the President has said, relations between Venezuela and the United States have been extraordinary. Oil is starting to flow, and large amounts of money, unseen for many years, will soon be helping the great people of Venezuela," a White House spokesperson told Fox News Digital. "Only President Trump can be credited for the revitalization of this newfound partnership – and the best is yet to come!" The spokesperson did not provide details about what Trump's plan to make Venezuela a part of the United States would look like. Trump's interest in Venezuela’s oil has been known since Maduro's ousting. He has argued that securing Venezuela’s oil supplies would help stabilize the country’s economy, a step he deems crucial to establishing a stable democracy. But in March, Trump posted on Truth Social suggesting that Venezuela would instead become a state. "Good things are happening to Venezuela lately! I wonder what this magic is all about? STATEHOOD, #51, ANYONE?" Trump posted. For Trump to annex Venezuela and make it a state, it would require congressional approval and consent from Venezuela, which Rodriguez said would never happen. "That would never have been considered, because if there is one thing we Venezuelan men and women have, it is that we love our independence process, we love our heroes and heroines of independence," Rodriguez told reporters on Monday when asked about Trump's eyes on Venezuela.
US Military Surveillance Flights Surging Off Cuba - - US military intelligence gathering flights have been surging off the coast of Cuba, CNN has reported, as the Trump administration has been threatening war against the island nation.The report, which cited analysis of open-source data, said that since February 4, the US Navy and Air Force have conducted at least 25 surveillance flights, most of them near the country’s two biggest cities, Havana and Santiago de Cuba, and some coming within 40 miles of the coast.The flights have been conducted with both drones and manned aircraft, mostly by P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft. The report said that public surveillance flights over the island were very rare before the surge and noted that a similar increase in flights occurred off the coast of Venezuela in the months leading up to the attack on the country to abduct President Nicolas Maduro.Following the attack on Venezuela, the US imposed a ramped-up oil embargo on Cuba, causing a devastating humanitarian crisis in the country. NBC News reported this week that President Trump has been frustrated that the increased embargo and other pressure haven’t led to the collapse of the Cuban government.The NBC report said that the Pentagon has updated its plans for a potential attack on Cuba should the president order one. Trump has made clear that he wants Cuba to be his next military intervention following the war with Iran, but there’s no sign that the conflict in the Middle East will be over soon, as there are indications that the US and Israel may restart the full-scale bombing campaign against the country.
Cuba’s top diplomat outlines redlines to Trump as it braces for US invasion Cuba’s top diplomat in the U.S. said the country is sticking to its red lines amid faltering negotiations it says have made “no progress” and a looming threat from President Trump to invade the nation. Lianys Torres Rivera sat down with The Hill at a critical 24-hour period for Cuba. The island’s energy minister announced Thursday the country had completely exhausted its fuel supplies amid a U.S. blockade, leading to widespread protests in the streets of Havana after weeks of extended blackouts. The U.S. also publicly acknowledged what it called “numerous private offers” previously made to Cuba for $100 million in aid. CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Cuba on Thursday, meeting with officials as the agency warned the window for negotiations “will not stay open indefinitely” and that “the Cubans should have no illusions that the president will not enforce red lines.” Torres Rivera repeated that Cuba’s independence was not up for negotiation. And while she said protests over the power outages are understandable, she cautioned against taking a “wrong reading” that they were a sign of weakening Cuban resolve. “When they are enduring 20 hours of blackouts, they have grievances, and they express it,” she told The Hill of her country’s citizens. But she added that the U.S. should not mistake that to mean “the Cuban people won’t defend [themselves] from a U.S. aggression, won’t defend our homeland from an invasion.” Speaking at the Cuban Embassy, Torres Rivera said the U.S and Cuba are “going through one of the most, if not the most difficult times in the bilateral relation.” The Cuban government is running drills in preparation for an invasion, she said, remarks that come after President Miguel DÃaz-Canel, in a rare interview with a U.S. media outlet, told NBC News the island “will defend ourselves, and if we need to die, we’ll die.” “We are preparing for this,” Torres Rivera told The Hill of an invasion. “Now we are doing more than ever. We cannot be naive. We cannot be naive. And in the way that we are preparing, it’s not in an offensive way. It’s not that we are preparing to be the first to do any action against the U.S. territory or against the U.S. people. We don’t want that. We are preparing to defend ourselves. And our minister was saying the other day, it could be a big mistake. It could be a bloodbath. We don’t want Cubans dying in Cuba,” she said, nor “any American soldier.”
Cuba Says It Has Run Out of Oil Under US Blockade - The Cuban government has said that it has run out of oil reserves under the ramped-up US oil embargo on the country, which has caused a devastating humanitarian crisis and widespread power outages across the country.“We have absolutely no fuel oil, absolutely no diesel,” Vicente de la O Levy, Cuba’s minister of energy and mines, said on Wednesday, according to The New York Times. “In Havana, the blackouts today exceed 20 or 22 hours.” Cuba produces some oil domestically, but nowhere close to the level needed to stave off the crisis. The Trump administration caused the crisis by ending Venezuelan oil shipments to the island nation following the US attack on the country to abduct President Nicolas Maduro and by pressuring Mexico to also end oil exports to Cuba and threatening tariffs. At one point, the US issued an oil waiver for private companies in Cuba, but the measure brought no relief for the country’s state-run power grid. The US has also been ramping up the military pressure against Cuba, surging surveillance flights around the island as President Trump has been threatening to “take” the country. While there have been talks between the US and Cuba, it’s unclear what deal would satisfy the Trump administration as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is leading the policy, has made clear he wants regime change.“You cannot change the economic trajectory of Cuba as long as the people who are in charge of it now are in charge of it. That’s what’s going to have to change because these people have proven incapable,” Rubio told Fox News this week. “I hope I’m wrong. We’ll give them a chance. But I don’t think it’s going to happen. I don’t think we’re going to be able to change the trajectory of Cuba as long as these people are in charge in that regime.”
Trump's 'Golden Dome' Missile Defense Shield Would Cost $1.2 Trillion: Congressional Budget Office - President Trump’s plan for a “Golden Dome” missile defense system to cover the entire territory of the United States would cost $1.2 trillion to build and operate, according to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) assessment, dramatically more than the White House has requested for the project. Defense One noted that the $1.2 trillion figure is seven times larger than President Trump’s original promise to build it for $175 billion and 15 times more than the $79 billion the administration plans to spend in the Golden Dome for America account over the next five years. The CBO based its assessment on the objectives of the “Iron Dome for America” Executive Order that President Trump signed back in January 2025. At the time, he was comparing the potential system to Israel’s Iron Dome, but the Israeli system is designed for intercepting crude, short-range rockets over a vastly smaller country, and Trump’s vision would be to provide a protective shield to defend from advanced ballistic missile attacks. The CBO said that creating such a system would require four layers: a space-based layer, two wide-area surface layers (an upper and a lower layer), and a surface-based regional sector layer. It said that the space-based layer would be by far the most expensive, accounting for 70% of acquisition costs and 60% of total expenses. The CBO’s estimate includes over $1 trillion in acquisition costs plus operations and maintenance costs over 20 years, but experts say the real number for building what Trump has described would be much higher. “CBO assumes the deployment of fewer than 7,800 space-based interceptors [for Golden Dome]. But the ratio of space-based interceptors to missiles fired necessary to cover the entire United States could be as high as 1000 to 1,” Gabe Murphy, a policy analyst at Taxpayers for Common Sense, told Responsible Statecraft. Todd Harrison, a defense analyst and space expert with the American Enterprise Institute, said in a report last year that building a system most closely to what President Trump has described would cost $3.6 trillion over 20 years. He told Defense One that the fact that the CBO’s estimate is so much higher than what the White House has requested for the project means the “administration is not actually building what the executive order described.”
US 'Disappointed' That Taiwan Didn't Approve a Bigger Increase in Military Spending - The US was “disappointed” in Taiwan for approving an increase in military spending to purchase US weapons that wasn’t as high as the government initially proposed.The government, led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), proposed a nearly $40 billion spending increase to purchase US weapons and Taiwanese-made drones, but the parliament, controlled by the opposition, reduced it to $25 billion. Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), seeks better relations with Beijing and a reduction of tensions across the Taiwan Strait.After months of negotiations, the KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) said on Friday that they were willing to agree to a $25 billion boost in military spending solely for purchasing US arms, to be spread over eight years and in addition to Taiwan’s base budget.The KMT initially proposed a much smaller spending increase of about $12 billion, and, according to analysts speaking to The South China Morning Post, the opposition party likely agreed to up to $25 billion due to pressure from the US, but Washington still wasn’t satisfied with the final amount. “Our position on Taiwan’s defense budget … is that it was disappointing in that there was some stuff left on the cutting room floor that we believe still needs to be funded,” a senior US official told Reuters. “We’d like to see the rest of the original proposed package funded.”
Trump-Xi summit raises terrifying prospect for US and Europe: Chinese cars - The walls that once kept Chinese electric vehicles out of the western economies are quickly developing some major cracks.That’s made the U.S. auto industry and lawmakers nervous that President Donald Trump’s trip to Beijing for a Thursday summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping could accelerate the entry of cheap EVs, wiping out the nascent U.S. EV sector at a time when fuel costs are soaring because of the U.S. war against Iran and rising car prices are souring public sentiment.“The only thing that terrifies me is BYD,” Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), whose family built a car dealership company before he entered Congress, said last week at an event in Washington. “The fact that it’s so inexpensive would destroy every other car company’s investment in electric vehicles.” For now, the U.S. market is off limits to Chinese EVs due to a combination of national security regulations and a 100 percent tariff. A flurry of new legislation backed by the top auto lobbying organization and manufacturers along with bipartisan warnings from Congress to Trump to avoid deals are evidence that U.S. automakers are in a panic over the potential entry of Chinese EVs or manufacturing investment.“They’re absolutely more than worried — they’re scared stiff,” said Michael Dunne, chief executive officer of Dunne Insights, an automotive consultancy. “Imagine if the Chinese come in with a $25,000 EV. That could catch like wildfire.”While Cabinet officials insist protecting the auto sector is non-negotiable in the talks at this week’s summit, Trump himself has opened the door to Chinese investment.“If they want to come in and build the plant and hire you and hire your friends and your neighbors, that’s great,” Trump told the Detroit Economic Club in January. “I love that. Let China come in, let Japan come in. They are, and they’ll be building plants, but they’re using our labor.”Lawmakers have focused on national security concerns to dissuade Americans from fantasizing about Chinese vehicles they can’t buy. They also have championed protecting the nation’s industrial core and the jobs they represent, pointing to European struggles to save auto jobs from Chinese competitors.Michigan Reps. Debbie Dingell, a Democrat, and John Moolenaar, a Republican, co-sponsored legislation Monday to codify bans on Chinese models because of software and hardware that collect personal information like location data. Democratic Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin and Republican Ohio Sen. Bernie Moreno — who also made his fortune from car dealerships — introduced a version in the Senate, S. 2040, last month.“I think we all understand the desire for a cheap car, just like I understand my nieces and nephews wanting to use TikTok and not caring that their data goes back to Beijing,” Slotkin said at a recent Washington event. “We have to care as leaders, even when people are laser-focused just on cost.”
China, US hold candid, in-depth, constructive exchanges in S. Korea on economic, trade issues, practical cooperation - Chinadaily.com.cn -- The Chinese and US delegations on Wednesday held candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges in South Korea on economic and trade issues of mutual concern, as well as on further expanding practical cooperation. Chinese Vice-Premier He Lifeng, also China's lead person for China-US economic and trade affairs, and US lead person Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent conducted the consultations. Guided by the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, the two sides upheld the principle of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.
Taiwan responds to Donald Trump's hesitation to back arms sales after Xi Jinping talks - Taiwan responded to President Trump’s hesitation Friday to back a U.S. arms sale to the island following two days of meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The island’s foreign affairs ministry emphasized the U.S.’s “long-standing and consistent policy toward Taiwan” in a statement released Friday morning. “Regarding arms sales to Taiwan, this is not only a security commitment to Taiwan explicitly stated in the Taiwan Relations Act, but also a joint deterrent against regional threats,” the ministry said. “Taiwan appreciates President Trump’s continued support for cross-strait security since his first term, with the previous announced arms sales reaching a record high,” the statement continued. “Close cooperation between Taiwan and the US has always been the cornerstone of peace across the Taiwan Strait.” The Trump administration has faced bipartisan pressure from Congress to follow through on a $14 billion arms deal to the island, a move opposed by the Chinese government. A group of eight Republican and Democratic senators urged Trump in a Monday letter to move forward with the sale. The president told reporters Friday that he and the Chinese leader “talked a lot about Taiwan.” Xi’s government refuses to recognize Taiwan’s independence, claiming it is part of China. “On Taiwan, he does not want to see a fight for independence because that would be a very strong confrontation, and I heard it out … I didn’t make a comment,” Trump said, adding that he has “a lot of respect” for Xi. Trump said he has yet to decide on the future of this arms deal and that he would “make a determination over the next early short period.” He noted that he needs to speak to the leader of Taiwan first. “I think the last thing we need is a war,” he said later. “It’s 9,500 miles away. I think that’s the last thing we need. We’re doing very well.”
Xi Warns Trump That Differences Over Taiwan Could Lead to 'Clashes and Conflicts' Between the US and China - - Chinese President Xi Jinping warned President Trump during talks in Beijing on Thursday that differences over Taiwan could lead to “clashes and conflicts” between the US and China, underscoring the issue’s significance from China’s perspective.“As President Xi Jinping noted during the talks with President Trump, the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told reporters. “If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy. ‘Taiwan independence’ and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water. Safeguarding peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the biggest common denominator between China and the US. The US side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question,” Guo added.The warning was delivered during two hours of talks at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, before which Trump praised the Chinese leader in public remarks. “You’re a great leader. Sometimes people don’t like me saying it, but I say it anyway, because it’s true,” Trumps said, according to The Associated Press. “It’s an honor to be your friend.”Xi expressed hope for a beneficial, cooperative US-China relationship but also warned of the need to avoid conflict, asking “whether the two countries can transcend the ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new model for relations between major powers.” The AP noted that Xi has used the term “Thucydides Trap” for many years, which refers to the risk of war between a rising power and an established power, but said it was significant that he used it in comments directly to Trump.Trump’s visit to Beijing, which includes a large delegation of his senior officials and CEOs of private US companies, comes a few months after his administration approved $11 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, more than were approved during the entire Biden administration, prompting Beijing to launch major military drills around the island. The US does not appear to be heeding China’s warnings regarding Taiwan, and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio downplayed what Xi told Trump, telling NBC News: “They always raise it on their side. We always make clear our position, and we move on to the other topics.”While issuing warnings about potential conflicts, Xi also stressed that the US and China could maintain a beneficial relationship. “Achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and making America great again can go hand in hand,” he said. “We can help each other succeed and advance the well-being of the whole world.”
Why Taiwan became the defining issue in the Trump-Xi talks - Beijing’s readout of the closing Trump-Xi meeting Friday morning emphasized the benefits of cooperation and did not mention Taiwan. ‘Cool it’ Trump said that China and Taiwan “ought to both cool it”. In an interview with Fox News that aired Friday afternoon, Trump insisted that long-standing U.S. policy on Taiwan remains unchanged after his two days of meetings with Xi. The people of Taiwan should feel “neutral” about his visit, Trump said. But he also appeared to express some opposition to the prospect of the U.S. leaping to Taiwan’s defense if it is attacked, while framing Taipei’s decision to pursue independence from China as the deciding factor. “I will say this: I’m not looking to have somebody go independent, and you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war,” Trump said. “I’m not looking for that. I want them to cool down, I want China to cool down.” He added that he has yet to approve another potential large sale of weapons to Taiwan: “I may do it, I may not do it.” “We’re not looking to have somebody say ‘Let’s go independent because the United States is backing us,’” Trump said. “Taiwan would be very smart to cool it a little bit. China would be very smart to cool it a little bit. They ought to both cool it,” he said. Earlier, Trump said he refused to directly answer Xi when asked if the U.S. would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack. Trump also said Taiwan was not part of the discussion when he met with Xi in South Korea last fall. Trump’s decision not to answer is in line with the U.S.′ long-standing “One China” policy, which leaves the status of Taiwan, an island that Beijing claims as its own, undefined. The approach of “strategic ambiguity” leaves open whether Washington would come to Taipei’s aid in the event of a Chinese attack. As for arms sales, the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act adds that the U.S. “will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services” as may be necessary to “enable Taiwan to maintain sufficient self-defense capabilities.” Taiwan, meanwhile, said comments by Trump and Rubio signal that U.S. policy toward the island remains unchanged. “It is a clear fact that [Taiwanese] President Lai Ching-te has consistently advocated for continuing to contribute to regional peace and stability and remaining committed to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait,” Taiwan’s presidential spokesperson Karen Kuo said in a statement on Saturday. “China’s escalating military threat is the sole destabilizing factor within the Indo-Pacific region, including the Taiwan Strait,” Kuo added. “If you look at the readouts of all Trump-Xi meetings before this [week], just the last several that have occurred since maybe April of last year, you see the U.S. readouts have a much smaller portion focused on Taiwan,” Rush Doshi, director of the China strategy initiative, Council on Foreign Relations, said Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “There’s really no sign that there’s been a significant change in [the U.S.] Taiwan policy, at least not yet from the summit,” Doshi said.
Trump wants China, Taiwan to 'cool down' -- President Trump in an interview that aired Friday said he wants China and Taiwan to “cool down,” while saying Taiwan should feel neither more nor less secure following his visit to China. Trump suggested nothing fundamental has changed in the U.S. relationship with Taiwan or with its security in the interview with Fox News’s Bret Baier, who asked whether the people of Taiwan should feel less secure following Trump’s meeting this week with Chinese President Xi Jinping. “Neutral,” Trump responded to the “Special Report” host. “This has been going on for years.” “Nothing’s changed. I will say this: I’m not looking to have somebody go independent,” Trump said, in reference to Taiwan, which China sees as being part of China. “And, you know, we’re supposed to travel 9,500 miles to fight a war. I’m not looking for that. I want them to cool down. I want China to cool down,” he continued. Republicans and Democrats have called on Trump to move ahead on a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. Trump was noncommittal on the arms sale. “I may do it. I may not do it,” Trump told Baier when asked about the arms deal. Under the U.S. “One China” policy, the U.S. acknowledges Beijing’s argument that Taiwan is a part of China but does not endorse this position. The U.S. does maintain relations with Taiwan and has provided it with defense and economic support. Trump in the interview repeatedly said he does not want to see Taiwan go “independent.” “We’re not looking to have wars. If you kept it the way it is, I think China is [going to] be OK with that. But we’re not looking to have somebody say, ‘Let’s go independent because the United States is backing us,’” he said. Trump made headlines Friday when he told reporters he “made no commitment either way” on the issue of Taiwan when he met with Xi. “On Taiwan, he feels very strongly, I made no commitment either way,” Trump said. The Chinese said they pressed Trump on the matter, saying that taking sides would damage relations. Trump held back on addressing Taiwan while in China. Trump did not answer reporters’ questions when asked whether he would defend Taiwan militarily. “I’m not going to say that. There’s only one person that knows that and you know who it is? Me. That question was asked to me today by President Xi. I said I don’t talk about that,” the president said.
Live Updates: Trump says China's leader offered to help end the war with Iran - President Donald Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged not to provide military equipment to Iran and offered to help end the conflict, following their meeting in Beijing. Trump also said Xi would like to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened. Iranian media reporting on President Donald Trump's state visit to Beijing signaled frustration among the country's leaders, who are voicing concerns that further confrontation with Washington could unfold.Part of Tehran's disappointment stems from signs that Trump does not want to seek China’s help on Iran, reported Iran International, a London-based, Persian-language satellite television channel.Meanwhile, Beijing appears unwilling to intervene in the conflict unless its own strategic and economic interests are directly threatened, the channel reported.
- President Donald Trump said he rejected Iran’s latest proposal because it did not provide sufficient guarantees that Iran would remain non-nuclear, insisting “20 years” would only be acceptable if it were real and enforceable.
- Trump said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping largely agreed Iran must not have a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz should be reopened, while adding that the U.S. does not need any favors.
- Representatives from Israel and Lebanon are meeting in Washington on Friday for negotiations aimed at resolving their conflict. Hezbollah, a terrorist organization, is backed by Iran and has exchanged fire with Israel in recent weeks.
- U.S. Central Command said Friday that 75 commercial ships have been redirected as part of the military’s ongoing blockade of Iranian ports.
- U.S. Central Command commander Adm. Brad Cooper said Thursday that Operation Epic Fury has “cut off” Iran’s support to terrorist groups in the region.
Donald Trump deals new blow to US farmers on China trip -- President Donald Trump defended Chinese purchases of U.S. farmland during a trip to Beijing this week, arguing that restricting foreign ownership would hurt American farmers by driving down land values. The remarks, delivered during an interview with Fox News host Sean Hannity, marked a sharp reversal from Trump’s previous hardline stance on Chinese ownership of American agricultural land and immediately intensified concern among farmers and national security hawks already uneasy about Beijing’s growing footprint in U.S. agriculture. “You want to see farm prices drop, you want to see farmers lose a lot of money? Just take that out of the market,” Trump said when asked about Chinese nationals purchasing farmland and land near military installations. The comments landed at a difficult moment for rural America. Farmers are already contending with weak commodity prices, high fertilizer costs, trade instability, and uncertainty surrounding agricultural exports to China. For many, Trump’s defense of Chinese investment in farmland added another layer of frustration to an already fragile economic environment. The Farmland Question Hannity pressed the president directly. “Thousands and thousands of acres of farmland, ranchland, and land near military installations” are being purchased by Chinese buyers, the Fox News host noted. Trump pivoted to market logic. Removing Chinese investment would crash land prices and leave farmers holding depreciated assets, he argued. He blamed previous administrations for inaction. “They’ve had a lot of land for a lot of time. [Former President Barack] Obama did nothing about it.” The framing ignored farmer sentiment on the ground. Chet Erdinger, a corn and soybean farmer from Mitchell, told Newsweek that Trump’s comments landed at a difficult moment for farmers already facing high costs, weak prices, and trade uncertainty. “We do not need China to own American farm ground. The Chinese are very shrewd and they are very methodical in how they do things. And if you allow them to buy farm ground, down the road, it’s hard to say how they will handle that,” Erdinger said. Erdinger noted that Chinese buyers may present one intention when acquiring farmland, but that those assurances can shift over time, leaving farmers wary about long-term trust. “Seeing Chinese landowners is difficult, and trusting them is even harder.”
Elon Musk turned an official visit to China into a viral spectacle in front of world leaders -- When the world’s richest man appears at an official state ceremony hosted by China’s president, the public usually expects to see impeccably strict suits, restrained smiles, and the kind of cautious diplomatic behavior that practically says: “Please, whatever you do, don’t trigger an international incident,” writes Wealth of Geeks. However, Elon Musk in Beijing seemed to be operating on a completely different script. Instead of model behavior at one of the most serious diplomatic events on the planet, he moved as if he had accidentally ended up not at a state reception but on a sightseeing tour. While world leaders discussed trade conflicts, Taiwan, and broader geopolitical challenges, Musk unexpectedly became an unofficial entertainment element of the entire visit. U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on his first visit to China in nearly nine years, accompanied by a delegation of 17 major American business leaders. Among them were Apple CEO Tim Cook, Nvidia chief Jensen Huang, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, and Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg. The central venue was the Great Hall of the People — a grand state building near Tiananmen Square designed for the most important legislative and ceremonial events in China. The formal purpose of the meeting was extremely serious: Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks amid strained economic relations between the two powers, while executives of the largest American corporations lined up on the steps of the building for the official welcoming ceremony. But soon, footage spread on social media showing Musk slowly turning 360 degrees while holding up his phone, apparently recording a panoramic video of the hall’s lavish interior. The video went viral faster than official government statements, and one of the most important diplomatic events of the year suddenly turned into a meme factory. While Tim Cook and Jensen Huang maintained a deliberately composed demeanor, Musk radiated the energy of someone trying to capture everything around him before security asked him to stop. The most viral moment of the trip occurred during a banquet segment with Xiaomi CEO Lei Jun, who approached Musk hoping to take a joint photo. Lei is known as one of the earliest owners of a Tesla Model S in China and has long admired Musk, so the meeting itself already looked like a fan encountering his idol. But then something happened that instantly became an internet sensation. During the selfie, Musk theatrically puffed out his cheeks, then pulled a strange expression with exaggeratedly pursed lips, creating exactly the kind of face that is perfect for becoming a meme. Reports say Lei tried to take a second shot, but Musk at that moment looked away, quietly whistled, and began scrolling on his phone. Social media literally exploded. Users joked that Lei Jun had been “humiliated by his own hero” in front of the entire internet. Screenshots of Musk’s facial expressions spread rapidly across platforms. Additional attention was drawn to another image showing Tim Cook politely smiling into the camera while Musk looks like he is oscillating between a friendly smile and full sensory overload.
Trump says federal gasoline tax to be reduced 'till it's appropriate’ (Reuters) - President Donald Trump said on Monday he will reduce the 18-cent federal gas tax for a yet to be determined period as U.S. fuel prices shoot higher due to the Iran war. Waiving the tax requires Congress, currently controlled by Trump's fellow Republicans, to pass legislation. "Yeah, I'm going to reduce," Trump told reporters on whether he would suspend the tax. Asked how long he would suspend the tax, Trump said in the Oval Office, "till it's appropriate." U.S. Senator Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, said on X that he is introducing legislation on Monday to suspend the gas tax. In March, some Democrats including Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona first proposed suspending the tax, which generates about $2.5 billion per month in road funding, until October. Since 2008, more than $275 billion - including $118 billion from the 2021 infrastructure law - has been shifted from the general fund to pay for road repairs. Trump told CBS earlier on Monday that a bailout plan for airlines, which are struggling with surging jet fuel costs, had not "really been presented" and that "the airlines are doing not badly.” Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday told NBC News’ “Meet the Press” that the Trump administration was open to suspending the federal gas tax. U.S. states also tax gasoline, with Indiana, Kentucky and Georgia moving to make cuts to give consumers some relief at the pump. Gas prices have risen since the war in Iran began on February 28, with one gallon in the U.S. averaging $4.52 as of Monday, the highest since 2022, when the average peaked at $5.01 a gallon, according to AAA motor club. Rising fuel costs, which stand to also boost the price of groceries and other goods, are a vulnerability for Trump and his fellow Republicans who are trying to hold control of Congress in the midterm elections in November. Trump said he knows the tax is only a small percentage of the overall cost of gasoline for consumers, "but it's still money."
FEMA’s acting administrator is out, for the third time under Trump - - The Trump administration has removed the acting leader of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and replaced her with a 30-year agency veteran who has held senior positions under several administrations. The departure of Karen Evans, a political appointee who led FEMA since December, was disclosed Tuesday in a memo to FEMA staff that was obtained by POLITICO’s E&E News. It marked the third time that FEMA’s acting administrator had been replaced since President Donald Trump returned to the White House. That tempestuous period had been marked by agency firings, canceled grant programs and Trump’s threats to disband an agency that provides billions of dollars in disaster aid to states every year.“I know this year has been challenging for many across the agency,” Robert Fenton, Evans’ temporary replacement, wrote in the staff memo Tuesday. Evans couldn’t be reached for comment, but a FEMA spokesperson said she has been asked to lead special projects at the Department of Homeland Security as director of the so-called Waste, Fraud and Abuse Task Force. “We are grateful for Ms. Evans’ service and look forward to her continued contributions in this important new role at DHS,” the spokesperson said. The agency removed her name from its Offices & Leadership webpage, which now lists Fenton as acting administrator.The change comes as Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin asserts control over an agency that saw leaders come and go under his predecessor, Kristi Noem, who was fired in March. On Monday, President Donald Trump nominated Cameron Hamilton to lead FEMA, making him the first permanent administrator in Trump’s second term, if he’s confirmed by the Senate. Hamilton was acting FEMA chief from January 2025 to May 2025, when he was fired. He returned to FEMA recently, the agency told E&E News, when he was appointed senior counselor to Mullin. The reshuffling at FEMA’s highest levels comes weeks before hurricane season begins, marking one of its busiest periods.Fenton, who runs the FEMA regional office in California, has previously served as acting administrator during transition periods between administrations. Now he will play the role of placeholder until Hamilton’s nomination is voted on by the Senate. Fenton is highly regarded by FEMA staff and among emergency managers nationwide. He has led the agency’s response to some of the most damaging disasters in U.S. history, including wildfires in Los Angeles in January 2025 and in Hawaii in 2023. “I’ve supported and led disaster operations across the country,” Fenton wrote in his staff memo. “I will lead FEMA and support Cameron Hamilton as he proceeds through the Senate confirmation process.” Trump had named Fenton last year to the FEMA Review Council, an expert panel that released a report last week with recommendations for overhauling the agency. Fenton, the only nonpolitical member of the 12-person council, echoed Trump’s criticisms of FEMA as being too slow and bureaucratic. He told the panel in May 2025, “Things that used to take me a month or two to do now take 18 months.”
Senate parliamentarian rules against some immigration enforcement funding - The Senate parliamentarian on Thursday ruled that several elements of the Republicans’ budget reconciliation package to provide $70 billion in immigration enforcement funding failed to comply with the Byrd Rule and could subject the entire package to a 60-vote threshold if left in the bill. The ruling is a setback for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who wants to bring the legislation to the floor next week, that will require Republicans to redraft or drop some provisions of the package. Democrats hailed the parliamentarian’s ruling as a big win, though a spokesperson for Thune downplayed it as simply requiring “technical fixes that were not unexpected.” “As Senate Democrats warned time and time again, we were prepared to look at every line of this bill to ensure it was compliant with the Byrd Rule and the rules of the reconciliation process. While we expect Republicans to continue to do anything Trump asks, this is a win for the rule of law and to ensure children in immigration detention are protected by existing laws” Senate Budget Committee ranking member Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) said in a statement. Merkley said Democrats “are prepared to continue fighting this bill.” The parliamentarian ruled against a section of the bill that would allow funds to be used for the initial screenings of unaccompanied migrant children. The parliamentarian ruled that the legislation, as drafted, inappropriately funded some activities outside the Senate Homeland Security Committee’s jurisdiction. The parliamentarian also ruled that the provision undermined decades-old protections for noncitizen children in the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act (TVPRA), according to a summary of the ruling issued by Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee. She also ruled that a section of the legislation that would provide another $2.5 billion in appropriations to immigration-related provisions of the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s Homeland Security title undermined the Flores Settlement Agreement and TVPRA. The Flores agreement is a binding federal consent decree that establishes standards for the detention, treatment and release of migrant minors who are apprehended by federal immigration officers. The Byrd Rule prohibits provisions that make significant policy changes with only tangential impacts on the budget from being allowed to pass with simple-majority votes through the budget reconciliation process.
Trump signed two beef executive orders today. Ranchers are already furious. -Beef is now more than 16% more expensive than when Trump took office, and it is one of the only major grocery categories that has not come down. On Monday, Trump signed two executive orders attempting to change that. The first — a temporary suspension of the tariff-rate quota on imported beef — allows Brazil, Australia, Argentina, and other major exporters to ship larger volumes of beef into the United States at lower duty rates. The second directs the Small Business Administration to expand loans for domestic cattle ranchers and rolls back certain federal regulations, including Endangered Species Act protections for gray and Mexican wolves and USDA electronic ear-tag requirements for livestock.The logic is straightforward. The US cattle herd has shrunk to its lowest level in 75 years — the result of drought, pandemic-era economics, and the slow generational math of rebuilding a herd that takes years to reconstitute. When domestic supply falls, prices rise. When tariffs make imports expensive, prices stay high even when foreign supply is available. Suspending the tariff quota allows more foreign beef to fill the gap while domestic ranchers rebuild. The problem is that Trump has tried versions of this before. In October 2025, he waived tariff-rate quotas specifically on Argentine beef. In November, he removed a 40% punitive tariff on Brazilian beef. Beef prices continued to climb throughout both measures — up $1.15 per pound overall since the first Argentina action. Imports are already at record levels: the dollar value of US beef imports hit $13.75 billion in 2025, up nearly $2.5 billion from 2024, and 2026 is on pace to break that record again.Cattle ranchers are the key political constituency Monday’s orders risk alienating. The same ranchers who benefit from Trump’s broader tariff agenda — which applies 50% duties on foreign beef under normal circumstances — are now watching him temporarily waive those protections to bring their prices down. The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association has consistently argued that the problem is not tariffs on imports but the domestic supply shortage — and that flooding the market with foreign beef could undercut American producers already operating at the smallest herd sizes since Harry Truman was president.A White House official described the tariff suspension as a short-term solution to supply shortages while regulatory relief works over a longer timeline. Analysts say meaningful price relief at the grocery counter depends on rebuilding the domestic herd — a process that could take until 2028 even under favorable conditions. For the average American family grilling this summer, the White House is promising faster relief than that. Whether Monday’s orders deliver it is a different question from whether they were signed.
Up To $170 Billion Needed To Secure Full Domestic Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain -To support current commercial nuclear operations, plus 300 GW of new nuclear capacity for a total of roughly 400 GW by 2050, all fueled domestically, the country would need to invest between $105 billion and $170 billion across the entire nuclear fuel cycle. Is it still called a bottleneck if the entire industry is the problem? The consulting firm McKinsey & Company used the most aspirational scenario from the Trump administration’s May 2025 executive orders as its benchmark for their recent report. That means rebuilding capacity from mining and milling through conversion, enrichment, fabrication, and even reprocessing.It's looking more and more like the $2.7 billion award from the DOE for domestic enrichment barely scratches the surface:
- $15-20 billion for mining and milling
- $30-45 billion for conversion
- $30-40 billion for enrichment
- $10-20 billion for fabrication
- $20-45 billion for reprocessing
These figures assume a mix of new and existing reactors, including Gen IV designs that will demand high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU).We have documented the vulnerabilities for months. Today the United States imports about 99 percent of the raw uranium ore needed for its commercial fleet…
Gas giant met with White House about New England pipeline project - Enbridge is planning an expansion of a major natural gas pipeline into New England, setting the stage for a political battle over the future of the Northeast’s energy system just as the midterm election season heats up. The Calgary-based pipeline company recently briefed the National Energy Dominance Council on plans for an expansion of its Algonquin Gas Transmission line, according to a White House official. Enbridge is also briefing potential buyers on its plans, according to an industry official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive business matters. The official said the company’s efforts appear to be in their early stages. “The message was, ‘Get ready to do your modeling work,’” the person said. Details about the expansion are still unclear. But the mere prospect of expanding pipeline access is likely to be controversial in New England, where a pair of proposals to build new pipelines were abandoned nearly a decade ago after encountering fierce resistance. It also injects a new wrinkle into gubernatorial races in New England, where a trio of Democratic governors seeking reelection are under mounting pressure to address some of the country’s highest energy prices. Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey and Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee have all pledged to green their states’ economies but have also signaled openness to backing new pipeline projects in the face of rising energy prices. Healey “takes an all-of-the-above approach to energy sources,” said spokesperson Karissa Hand. “She recently supported increased supply coming into the state on the Algonquin pipeline, which will lower gas bills and emissions by reducing Massachusetts’ dependence on imported LNG,” Hand said. “Governor Healey will review any energy proposals through the lens of whether they would lower costs and move us toward energy independence.” The offices of Lamont and McKee didn’t respond to a request for comment. The gubernatorial campaigns are revving into gear as President Donald Trump pushes to expand pipeline connections between gas-rich regions like Pennsylvania and pipeline-constrained regions like New York and New England. Trump claimed last year to reach an agreement with New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) to expand pipeline access in the Empire State in exchange for allowing an offshore wind project to proceed. Federal regulators approved a proposal to expand an existing line in September, but New York officials have raised objections over a second plan to build a new pipeline in the state. Algonquin is a 1,100-mile pipeline system running from New Jersey to Massachusetts. Enbridge has faced resistance over plans to expand the system’s capacity in recent years. Its efforts to build a new compressor station south of Boston became a lightning rod in Massachusetts, where critics argued the project would undermine the state’s climate goals and further pollute the air in a densely populated community. The station eventually came online in 2021.A White House official confirmed that Enbridge recently informed the National Energy Dominance Council, an advisory body that Trump created to promote fossil fuels, of its latest expansion plans. “President Trump and his entire energy team are always exploring ways to strengthen and expand our energy infrastructure,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive business plans. “The Northeast is in high demand for more natural gas and the President is working to ensure the region has the supply it needs at a lower cost.” An Enbridge spokesperson did not directly answer questions about its expansion plans, saying the company “routinely updates officials at all levels of government” about its projects and referencing a minor expansion of Algonquin underway in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Lawmakers seek to revive DOGE’d State Department bureau for energy crises - A bipartisan group of lawmakers is working to revive an energy diplomacy bureau that the Trump administration wiped out last year before its war against Iran threw global oil and gas markets into turmoil. A bill up for a vote in a House committee Wednesday would essentially be a rebuke of the White House’s dismantling of the office by reconstituting in all but name the States Department’s Energy Resources Bureau that tackled global energy issues. The Elon Musk-led DOGE team killed it last year, dismissing many of the bureau’s subject-matter experts and placing most of the rest — largely those handling critical minerals — under the department’s bureau for economic and business matters. The lawmakers’ new bill, H.R. 7037, set to be marked up Wednesday in the House Foreign Affairs Committee would create a “Bureau of Energy Security and Diplomacy” as well as establishing a new office to hammer out energy and mineral agreements with other countries. Known as the “DOMINANCE Act” and sponsored by California’s Republican Rep. Young Kim and Democratic Rep. Ami Bera, it would also order State to “prioritize” hiring people laid off from the energy bureau last year. The latest push for a new energy bureau — which was endorsed last fall in legislation passed by the House committee — comes as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices spiking and created a global energy crisis that is threatening the world’s economies.
'Obvious Dangers': Gabbard Probing US Funding To International Biolabs - U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and other intelligence officials are investigating U.S. funding to overseas laboratories handling biological research. Initial searches of intelligence files showed that the U.S. government has provided money to more than 120 biolaboratories in more than 30 countries, a spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence told The Epoch Times in an email on May 12. That includes biolabs in Ukraine that “may be at risk of compromise due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war” and other laboratories that have researched highly contagious pathogens, potentially including research that enhanced the pathogens’ virulence or transmissibility, with little visibility or oversight, according to the office. The Department of Defense in a 2022 document said the United States had invested approximately $200 million since 2005 to support work at 46 Ukrainian laboratories, health facilities, and diagnostic sites. Gabbard issued new guidance to officials that directs them to step up the collection of information on laboratories and related facilities outside the United States, which is already yielding new details on clinical trials being performed at the facilities, officials said. The information has raised ethical, financial, and security concerns, according to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. “The COVID-19 pandemic revealed the catastrophic global impact research on dangerous pathogens in biolabs can have,” Gabbard said in a statement. “Yet despite these obvious dangers, politicians, so-called health professionals ... and entities within the Biden administration’s national security team lied to the American people about the existence of these U.S.-funded and supported biolabs and threatened those who attempted to expose the truth.” She said that the Trump administration is “working closely with partners across the government to identify where these labs are, what pathogens they contain, and what ’research' is being conducted, to end dangerous Gain-of-Function research that threatens the health and wellbeing of the American people and the world.” The first COVID-19 cases were detected in 2019 near a biolaboratory in Wuhan, China, that received funding from the United States. Gabbard’s investigation was prompted by a May 5, 2025, executive order from President Donald Trump that forbade federal funding from supporting risky research, or experiments aimed at increasing functions of a virus, unless proper oversight is in place. Trump said in the order that “dangerous gain-of-function research on biological agents and pathogens has the potential to significantly endanger the lives of American citizens” and that the government had previously approved funding for research “in China and other countries where there is limited United States oversight or reasonable expectation of biosafety enforcement.” COVID-19, he said, “revealed the risk of such practices.”
Dem lawmakers question Trump firing of science advisers - Democratic lawmakers are demanding that the Trump administration explain its reasons for firing every member of the National Science Foundation’s advisory board. Members of the House and the Senate today simultaneously submitted letters to President Donald Trump condemning the move, which they referred to as the latest attack in an ongoing White House assault on U.S. science. “This is a clear escalation of your war on American scientific excellence,” said the letter from House Democrats, signed by 31 lawmakers led by California Rep. Zoe Lofgren, ranking member of the Science, Space, and Technology Committee. The letter demanded that Trump reinstate all 22 terminated members of the advisory board “so they can resume their vital work in providing steady, expert advice to the National Science Foundation.”
Trump administration sued by veterans group over VA abortion ban - A veterans advocacy group is suing the Trump administration over its ban on abortion care and counseling at the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). The Minority Veterans of America said it brought the lawsuit on behalf of all its members harmed by the ban, including one pregnant member who has chronic medical conditions and a long history of pregnancy complications and needs access to abortion care and counseling to protect her health. The lawsuit was filed in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit. The lawsuit argues that the Trump administration violated the Administrative Procedures Act when the VA revoked a Biden-era legal opinion that allowed the VA to provide limited abortion counseling and services to pregnant veterans and their beneficiaries, including those who become pregnant as a result of rape or incest. According to the complaint, the “VA failed to provide any explanation—let alone a reasoned explanation—for disregarding its previous factual findings addressing veterans’ need for abortion care, and … failed to address significant comments.” The 2022 Biden administration policy allowed abortions for those who became pregnant as a result of rape or incest or if a pregnancy endangered the “life and health” of the person seeking an abortion. The VA did not cover abortions before 2022. The VA in December quietly reimplemented the ban following a memo authored by Joshua Craddock, deputy assistant attorney general of the Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Counsel, issued Dec. 18 that concluded the VA may not provide abortion services under any provision of the law. The VA abortion ban applies across all states, regardless of the state’s abortion access laws.
Trump admin jettisons public lands rule, eases grazing regulations - The Trump administration advanced major changes Monday to how the Bureau of Land Management will handle the use of millions of acres of land, burying an effort to elevate conservation as a use on par with oil and gas drilling, mining, and recreation. The Interior Department said it will eliminate a Biden administration environmental policy that sought to make conservation a formal use of public lands, while at the same time unveiling new regulations to ease access to livestock grazing. The dual updates, laid out in a pair of advanced Federal Register notices, mark a tectonic shift in the agency’s focus, ahead of the expected confirmation this week of President Donald Trump’s nominee to head BLM, former New Mexico GOP Rep. Steve Pearce. Neither the Interior Department nor BLM immediately responded to a request for comment.Over the last year, the Trump administration has sought to eliminate programs or regulations that address the impacts of climate change, and advance what Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called his agency’s path that has “unlocked America’s Balance Sheet.” In a Federal Register notice to be published Tuesday, BLM announced it will formally strike down the Conservation and Landscape Health Rule. Often called “the public lands rule,” the policy gave BLM authority to consider conservation and habitat health alongside other aspects of its multiple-use mission, such as oil and gas development, grazing, and recreation.The rule had also allowed for entities to lease parcels of public land specifically for the purpose of landscape restoration.In its Federal Register notice, BLM said rescinding the rule “restores balance to federal land management under the principles of multiple use and sustained yield by prioritizing access, empowering local decision-making, and aligning the BLM’s implementing regulations with statutory requirements and national energy policy.”Industry groups have cheered the rollback of the Biden-era rule since Burgum announced plans to revoke it in September. A White House review of the plan to rescind the rule wrapped up last month. Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council, an oil industry group, called the Biden-era rule “reckless agency overreach” in a statement.“AXPC applauds Secretary Burgum for taking a crucial step to secure energy affordability by restoring balanced management of federal lands, including for responsible oil and natural gas development as Congress intended,” Bradbury said.Burgum has repeatedly decried government policies that limit mining, grazing, drilling and timber harvesting.The Wilderness Society, which like other environmental groups opposes the Trump administration’s moves, called the proposal “a bid to make industrial applications like drilling and mining the default and dominant use of our nation’s public lands forever.”In a statement, Alison Flint, the group’s acting vice president for federal policy, said, “Congress directed the BLM to manage public lands in a way that balances uses like outdoor recreation with needs as varied as grazing, energy development and conservation of wildlife habitat.”The new proposal, Flint said, “flouts both the agency’s legal mandate and the overwhelming wishes of the American people for public lands to be managed in a balanced and sustainable way that conserves special places for future generations.”
Lawsuit challenges Donald Trump's Reflecting Pool renovation - A group sued over President Trump’s Reflecting Pool project on Monday, arguing the renovation at the National Mall violates environmental and preservation laws. The Cultural Landscape Foundation and its founder, Charles Birnbaum, said the blue paint coating is “altering the historic character” of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool without authority. “The dark grey, achromatic basin was not incidental to the design. It was the design,” the lawsuit states. The suit was filed in federal district court in Washington, D.C. The group quickly asked for an emergency intervention that would immediately stop the project. “President Trump has done more to make our nation’s capital a shining beacon than any other president in the history of this country,” an Interior Department spokesperson said in a statement. “The National Park Service chose the best company to expedite the repair of the iconic Reflecting Pool ahead of our [America] 250 celebrations. The choice of American Flag Blue will enhance the visitor experience by making the pool reflect the grand Lincoln Memorial and Washington Monument.” Trump announced last month he would coat the Reflecting Pool in “American flag blue.” As the project got underway, Trump’s motorcade took an unannounced trip to see the project up close. The pool runs from the Lincoln Memorial to the World War II Memorial, reflecting an image of the Washington Monument as it spans the length of 12 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
Cost of Trump’s reflecting pool repairs balloon by $11.3 million, to $13.1M - The cost of President Trump’s repairs to the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool have swelled by $11.3 million months after he first announced the project, which is intended to coincide with celebrations for the country’s 250th founding anniversary. Originally, the president pegged $1.8 million for efforts to repaint the reflecting pool, waterproof its bottom and mend leaking joints. However, Friday filings show the cost is projected to hit $13.1 million, according to a report from the New York Times. Last week, the Interior Department added $6.2 million to the existing contract, valued at $6.9 million. The repairs are being headed by a Virginia firm, Atlantic Industrial Coatings, which was awarded a no-bid contract in April. The company previously repaired swimming pools at the Trump National Golf Club Washington DC, which is located in Sterling, Va. It was selected to service the historic reflecting pool after the government cited an urgent need to move ahead with the project. The government said a delay would cause “serious injury,” per the Times. No further explanation regarding any harm or damage was given, however, the intended timeline for completion was listed as July 4. “The contract price reflects the effort necessary to expedite the timeline of completing the leak prevention coating project—more people, more materials, more equipment and longer hours ahead of our 250th,” an Interior Department spokesperson told The Hill.
GOP Lawmakers Leery Of Trump's Billion-Dollar Ballroom-Security Package --Wary of the terrible election-year optics, some federal Republican legislators are less-than-enthusiastic about approving a request for a billion dollars in security funding relating to President Trump's White House ballroom project. Some of them shared those feelings with reporters after they received a Tuesday afternoon closed-door briefing by Secret Service Director Sean Curran. When he first rolled out the 90,000-square-foot ballroom project, Trump repeatedly emphasized that the project would cost $200 million and be funded entirely with private donations. Now the ballroom itself is projected to cost $400 million -- still privately-funded -- but with another $1 billion in federal funding being poured into security provisions. “I think the timing and the optics are really bad,” North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters Monday. “This time last year, roughly, maybe a little bit before, we were all impressed with the fact that this $400 million building was going to be paid for out of the generosity of donors, and now we’re hearing 2½ times that is necessary for some other aspect of the project.” The ballroom funds are supposed to be part of the ICE and Border Patrol bill that's considered as a GOP must-have. In his briefing to legislators, Curran provided an itemization of the big-ticket items comprising that $1 billion request. “He walked through the various categories,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said. “So it was a good back-and-forth, a good discussion, and obviously we had a lot of questions that were asked by our colleagues, just to get the details and precision as much as possible about how dollars will be used.” According to the Washington Post, the categories include:
- $200 million for "hardening" the party room, from both above and below; finishes include bulletproof glass, and systems to detect chemical weapons and drones
- $180 million for a new White House visitor-screening setup
- $175 million for training Secret Service agents and improving "protectee security"
- $150 million to ward off "emerging threats" to include bioweapons and airborne attacks
- $100 million to secure high-profile national events
Following the briefing, Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall, who routinely votes as Trump wishes, was non-committal. “I still got some more questions, and they’re going to send us more information...I'm undecided." Similarly, Louisiana Sen. John Kennedy, said he has "a lot" of questions of his own, adding that "One of the biggest concerns on our side is adding to the deficit."
Paul: $1 billion for White House ballroom likely coming out of budget reconciliation bill -- Senate Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rand Paul (R-Ky.), whose committee will mark up a portion of the Senate budget reconciliation bill to fund immigration enforcement operations, says there’s a good chance that the $1 billion in funding for the White House ballroom will be removed from the bill before it reaches the Senate floor. Paul, who opposes spending taxpayer dollars on the ballroom, said the $1 billion provided to the Secret Service to provide security enhancements to the White House ballroom faces several major hurdles to remaining in the bill text. The $1 billion for the ballroom was included in the portion of legislative text released last week by the Senate Judiciary Committee. The Judiciary panel’s bill will be combined with text drafted by Paul’s Homeland Security Committee to produce the budget reconciliation package that will come to the Senate floor next week. “I’m for still doing it with the private donations,” Paul said of how to pay for the White House ballroom and security enhancements associated with the project. He said there are “a lot of questions” whether the $1 billion ballroom provision will survive procedural objections. “I think there’s a lot of questions. I think it will have to go through the Byrd Bath and they’ll have to decide whether it can be in reconciliation,” he said, referring to the Senate rule governing what can be added to a budget reconciliation package to circumvent a Democratic filibuster. But Paul said that even if the Senate parliamentarian approves of the funding for security enhancements to the ballroom, it could still get stripped out at the committee level. “If it were in reconciliation, there’s all these technical things but I think it has to go to the committee of jurisdiction and I think the committee of jurisdiction is not my committee,” he said. “I don’t think it will be in there, is what my guess is,” he added. Paul has introduced a bill to set up an expedited process to approve the White House ballroom and future projects by future presidents without providing any funding. “I’m for funding it with private funds,” he added.
Fine print on Trump Mobile site says phones may never come – A gold-colored mobile phone bearing President Donald Trump’s name has allegedly been in the works for nearly a year, but a firm timeline for its release has remained unclear for almost as long. The T1 Phone, announced in June 2025 by Trump’s sons Donald Jr. and Eric, was to be a signature offering for users of the Trump Mobile wireless plan. The company also began taking $100 deposits for the phone (which is listed at a total “promotional price” of $499) the same month.But the device has yet to ship, despite an initial delivery date of August 2025. And its release has been delayed multiple times since, with no official date earmarked as of May 2026. The Trump Mobile website is still directing customers to a waitlist for the T1 Phone today, albeit a phone that appears slightly different from the one introduced with the launch of Trump Mobile. It’s unclear how many customers have preordered T1 Phones and paid the $100 deposits (a recent report from the International Business Times puts it at “around 600,000”), but those deposits are said to be completely refundable if customers would rather not wait around. “Estimated ship dates, launch timelines, or anticipated production schedule are non-binding estimates only,” reads a portion of the terms and conditions, directly under a header reading “No Guarantee of Release, Delivery or Timing.”The site also indicates that the phone may never be released at all. “Trump Mobile does not guarantee that: the Device will be commercially released; regulatory approvals (including FCC authorization) will be obtained; carrier certification will be secured; production will commence or continue; or delivery will occur within any specific timeframe,” the terms and conditions read.
Trump blasts Fox News’s Heinrich over Ro Khanna interview President Trump went after Fox News’s Jacqui Heinrich over a recent interview she did with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a prominent progressive whose star has risen in the last year amid his push for the release of files linked to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. “You could listen to FoxNews all day long, absolutely devour it, but then, when you hear SLEAZEBAGS, like Congressman Ro Khanna, ‘a wolf in sheep’s clothing,’ LIE, LIE, LIE, AND LIE AGAIN, without any pushback, or competent rebuttal from an anchor, in this case, Jacqui Heinrich, the entire Common Sense dialogue that has been going on all day at Fox is completely obliterated!” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social account Sunday. Khanna responded to Trump on the social platform X, saying “this is why I go on Fox.” “This is why I talk about an economic agenda to build steel, ship & battery plants in hollowed out communities. This is why I talk to everyone, including Trump voters, without hurling insults,” he added. “This is how Democrats will win & unite the country.” During the interview with Heinrich on “The Sunday Briefing,” Khanna claimed that Democrats are going to win the House majority in November. “The reason we’re going to win the House is gas prices are up, food prices are up, people don’t like the fact that we’re in a war in Iran. They don’t like the fact that the Trump administration hasn’t released the Epstein files or held the Epstein class accountable,” he told Heinrich. Trump has previously criticized Heinrich, with the president saying last year that he had “watched Jacqui Heinrich from Fox over the weekend and I thought she was absolutely terrible.” “She should be working for CNN, not Fox. Not surprisingly, I later found out that she’s a fan of the White House Correspondents Association!” he added in a Truth Social post.
AOC doesn’t deny speculation about 2028 presidential run -- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) is leaving the door open for a presidential run in 2028. Democratic strategist David Axelrod asked the lawmaker during a Friday event in Chicago about the speculation that she will enter the race for the White House. The four-term House member pushed back on an assumption that her “ambition is positional,” specifically citing an op-ed in the Washington Post. “They assume that my ambition is a title or a seat, and my ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “Presidents come and go … elected officials come and go, but single-payer healthcare is forever.” Ocasio-Cortez told Axelrod that she tailors her political ambitions to “meet the moment.” “Conditions change radically all the time, so I make my response less to an attachment to some positional, like title or position, and working backwards from there, but I make decisions by waking up in the morning, looking out the window and observing the conditions of this country and saying, ‘What move or what decision can I make today that is going to get us closer to that future, stronger, faster, better than yesterday?’” she said on Friday. The lawmaker is part of a lengthy list of Democratic favorites to wrest back control of the White House in 2028. Other Democrats on this list include Gov. Gavin Newsom (Calif.), former Vice President Kamala Harris, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (Mich.), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Gov. Josh Shapiro (Penn.) and Gov. Andy Beshear (Ky.).
Democrats urge James Comer to subpoena prediction markets over suspicious trades - A group of seven Democrats sent a letter on Monday to House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chair James Comer (R-K.Y.), asking him to issue subpoenas pursuant to an investigation into “suspicious” trades on prediction markets relating to the war with Iran. Democratic Reps. Maggie Goodlander (N.H.), Sara Jacobs (Calif.), Seth Magaziner (R.I.), Seth Moulton (Mass.), Chris Pappas (N.H.), Dina Titus (Nev.) and Rashida Tlaib (Mich.) wrote to Comer that they are “deeply concerned that individuals with access to sensitive government information have used that access for personal financial gain.” Of the seven, Tlaib is the lone member of the Oversight panel. The Hill has requested comment from the office of Comer, the committee’s chair since January 2023. Last month, U.S. Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke was arrested and charged with using classified information about the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place bets on Polymarket regarding the mission. He allegedly made more than $400,000 in profits from the wagers, according to the Justice Department. Polymarket and other online prediction markets, such as Kalshi, allow individuals to bet on the outcomes of real-life events, including sports games, election outcomes, daily stock and commodity price changes and geopolitical events. The Democratic lawmakers referenced Van Dyke’s arrest, which they said, “illustrates the seriousness of the issue.” They also highlighted a CNN report from March that outlined how a single trader on Polymarket made nearly $1 million with a 93 percent success rate on wagers predicting unannounced U.S. and Israeli operations against Iran. The trader reportedly placed bets hours before strikes in October 2024, June 2025 and February 2026. “A separate group of 38 accounts netted more than $2 million on the February 28 strikes alone, after being preloaded with funds the preceding week,” the lawmakers added. “At least 50 newly created accounts placed coordinated bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7, some opened minutes before the announcement.
Ex-Con Hacker Twins Fired - Proceed To Wipe Out 96 Government Databases In Minutes Note to employers: When you discover your twin brother employees are ex-cons who did time for hacking into the US State Department, and go to fire them, make sure you fully disable their access. February 2025, twin brothers Muneeb and Sohaib Akhter turned a routine job termination into one of the most brazen insider sabotage incidents in recent U.S. government history. Just minutes after being fired from Opexus - a Washington, D.C.-area contractor that provides critical case-management software to more than 45 federal agencies - the brothers allegedly launched a rapid digital assault that deleted approximately 96 government databases containing sensitive FOIA records, investigative files, and taxpayer data. What made the case especially shocking was the brothers' prior history: both had served prison time for hacking federal systems a decade earlier. The Akhter brothers, both 34 and from Alexandria, Virginia, had a criminal past that Opexus completely missed - which, given what they do, is not great. In 2015, while working as contractors, they pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit wire fraud, conspiracy to access protected computers without authorization, and related charges. Their crimes involved hacking into U.S. State Department systems and a private company, stealing personal data on coworkers, acquaintances, and even a federal investigator. Muneeb received a 39-month prison sentence; Sohaib received 24 months. Both served their time and were released. And yet... By 2023-2024, the brothers had landed engineering roles at Opexus (formerly known as AINS), a firm specializing in FedRAMP-certified case-management platforms. Its flagship products - FOIAXpress and the eCASE suite - help agencies process Freedom of Information Act requests, audits, investigations, EEO complaints, and congressional correspondence. Opexus systems host sensitive government data on servers in Ashburn, Virginia. The company conducted standard background checks covering roughly seven years - which missed the 2015 convictions. Opexus later admitted that "additional diligence should have been applied" and that the individuals responsible for hiring the twins are no longer with the company. Unbeknownst to Opexus at the time of termination, the brothers had been abusing their access for weeks. Muneeb had collected approximately 5,400 usernames and passwords from the company's network and built custom scripts to test them against external sites (including Marriott and DocuSign). He successfully logged into accounts and, in some cases, used victims' airline miles. On February 1, 2025 - more than two weeks before their firing - Muneeb asked Sohaib for the plaintext password of an individual who had filed a complaint through the EEOC Public Portal. Sohaib ran a database query and provided it; Muneeb then used the credentials to access the complainant's email without authorization. This incident later became central to Sohaib's password-trafficking charge. On February 18, 2025, the FDIC flagged Sohaib's prior conviction during a background check for a potential new role at the FDIC Office of Inspector General. Opexus fired both brothers during a remote Microsoft Teams/HR meeting that ended around 4:50-4:55 p.m. The offboarding was flawed: Muneeb's account remained active. ARS Technica has the timeline: At 4:56 pm, Muneeb accessed a US government database that his company maintained. He "issued commands to prevent other users from connecting or making changes to the database, and then issued a command to delete the database," the government said. At 4:58 pm, he wiped out a Department of Homeland Security database using the command "DROP DATABASE dhsproddb." At 4:59 pm, he asked an AI tool, "How do i clear system logs from SQL servers after deleting databases?" He later asked, "How do you clear all event and application logs from Microsoft windows server 2012?" In the space of a single hour, Muneeb deleted around 96 databases with US government information. He downloaded 1,805 files belonging to the EEOC and stashed them on a USB drive, then grabbed federal tax information for at least 450 people. The brothers discussed the attack in real time. Sohaib observed Muneeb "cleaning out their database backups." They even queried an AI tool on how to clear SQL server logs and Windows event logs. They later reinstalled the operating systems on their company laptops to destroy evidence.
Musk's China trip during OpenAI trial prompts apology from his lawyer for CEO’s absence -- Elon Musk’s lead counsel, Steven Molo, apologized to the jury for his absence on Thursday, with the Tesla and SpaceX CEO accompanying President Donald Trump in China as closing arguments were made in the Musk-Altman trial.“This is something he is passionate about,” Molo assured the jury about Musk’s attention to the trial.The trial in federal court stems from a lawsuit Musk brought against his OpenAI co-founders, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, alleging they had violated a promise to keep their company a nonprofit, and had unjustly enriched themselves by restructuring the business.Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers previously placed Musk on “recall status,” meaning he was supposed to be available to return to the court, if needed, to testify on short notice, as NBC reported.The world’s richest person testified during the first week of the trial.Witnesses in a trial would normally need to submit a motion for permission to travel and wait for a judge to grant that motion before traveling far away. A spokesperson for the court said they did not know if Musk obtained permission to travel. Musk’s attorneys did not respond to a request for information about whether they cleared his travel with the judge or consulted with Musk regarding his travel.Musk traveled with Trump before closing arguments were underway, as the president held meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang, and Apple CEO Tim Cook were part of Trump’s delegation.In the Oakland courtroom on Thursday, Altman and Brockman were both in attendance.William Savitt, counsel for OpenAI, also pointed to Musk’s absence in his closing arguments.“Mr. Musk isn’t here today — my clients are here,” he said. “They’re here because they care about this.”During their close, Savitt and fellow counsel Sarah Eddy walked the jury through documents in evidence, showing Musk had wanted to turn OpenAI into a for-profit entity, but only if he could control the business or merge it with Tesla.Eddy told the jury Musk had claimed his donations to the nonprofit in its early years had “specific strings attached.” She added, “Mr. Musk has come nowhere close to making that case,” and “even the people who work for him, even the mother of his children can’t back his story,” a reference to the testimony of former OpenAI board member Shivon Zilis, the mother of four of Musk’s children.
Google Chrome accused of silently installing AI model—how to check - Google Chrome users are raising concerns after reports claimed the browser may be quietly downloading a large artificial intelligence (AI) model onto some computers without clear notification or consent. The issue centers on “Gemini Nano,” Google’s on-device AI model, which powers several Chrome AI features locally instead of relying entirely on cloud processing. According to cybersecurity expert Alexander Hanff, Chrome has been automatically downloading a roughly 4GB file called “weights.bin” onto eligible devices in the background. Technology companies are increasingly embedding AI tools directly into consumer software and devices. Running AI models locally can improve privacy and performance because data processing can happen on-device rather than being sent to remote servers. Critics, however, argue users should be clearly informed before multi-gigabyte files are installed automatically. In the post published on That Privacy Guy, Hanff said Chrome creates a folder called “OptGuideOnDeviceModel” and stores a large AI model file named “weights.bin” on supported computers. Hanff wrote that Chrome downloaded the model “without asking” and said the browser would re-download the file if users manually removed it. To test the behavior, Hanff said he created a fresh Chrome profile on an Apple Silicon Mac and monitored system-level filesystem logs. According to the report, Chrome downloaded the model during idle browser activity without direct user interaction. In a statement to Newsweek, a Google spokesperson said Gemini Nano offers “important security capabilities like scam detection and developer APIs without sending your data to the cloud.” “While this requires some local space on the desktop to run, the model will automatically uninstall if the device is low on resources,” the spokesperson said. “In February, we began rolling out the ability for users to easily turn off and remove the model directly in Chrome settings. Once disabled, the model will no longer download or update.” Commenters on Reddit’s r/browsers forum weighed in on the post. “This is true, checked my PC and a 4GB AI model was in AppData/Local/Google/Chrome/UserData/OptGuideOnDeviceModel,” a user wrote. “So, mAIware?” another commenter replied. However, one commenter wasn’t entirely convinced: “If it’s Gemini Nano, isn’t that supposed to help with on-device AI tasks so the model doesn’t have to contact a server? In theory, that could help provide more privacy-friendly AI solutions, not less. I’m also not completely on-board with his legal analysis but I want to look at it more closely before I decide. “I do agree that installing it without the user’s knowledge or consent is pretty s***ty though.”
Pressure, FOMO: Some big banks are rolling AI out too fast | American Banker -- (graphic) Rumblings of discontent about AI deployments at large U.S. banks are reverberating across tech websites. The complaints suggest some banks are moving too quickly, and executives are promising efficiency improvements that are unattainable.
- Key insight: Signs of trouble under the surface are emerging at big banks that are aggressively rolling out generative and agentic AI.
- What's at stake: AI errors and rogue AI agents can lead to outages and disruption.
- Forward look: Some banks may slow their rollouts, others may focus on longer testing cycles and stronger controls for AI agents.
Fiserv has co-created AI agents with six banks and OpenAI | American Banker The financial industry's race to adopt agentic AI has put pressure on the largest bank software vendors to support this activity. In response, Fiserv and FIS, providers of foundation technology underpinning most U.S. banks, have begun offering AI agents that work with their software. BMO and Amalgamated Bank are deploying a new Financial Crimes AI agent FIS recently built with Anthropic that helps investigate financial crime and money laundering.
- Key insight: The major core banking software providers are co-developing AI agents compatible with their cores; the latest example is a collaboration between Fiserv, OpenAI and AWS.
- What's at stake: Banks seek efficiency from these agents. There's still a strong need for these agents to operate within guardrails and compliance rules.
- Forward look: More bank software vendors are likely to make similar moves.
Banks want fluent AI users, not more coders | American Banker (graphic of survey results) Banking professionals recently named AI fluency the top skill their organizations need as AI takes hold and ranked pure software-development skill last.
Missouri bank faces call for boycott over data-center controversy
- Key Insight: The proposed construction of a data center has sparked persistent protests in a Missouri community, spilling over into anger at a local community bank.
- What's at Stake: The outcry shows how intensely controversial data centers have become in many American communities — and how much risk even an indirect connection to them can pose for banks.
- Expert Quote: "We're not going to give up until we've tried every last means that we have to say we don't want this in our backyard," Franklin County resident Berta Carpenter said of the data center.
Plans were moving along smoothly for a new data center in Franklin County, Missouri — until residents found out about it. Now the project is facing a fierce public backlash, and a local community bank is caught in the crossfire.
NASAA asks states to eliminate conflicts with SEC's new marketing rule - Even as advisors take advantage of an SEC rule that allows them to use client testimonials as part of their marketing, many still must worry about running afoul of state regulations. NASAA's proposal would align state laws with the SEC's marketing rule, eliminating concerns advisors have about running afoul of more local laws as they accept testimonials and reviews.
JPMorganChase gives $14 million to anti-scam groups | American Banker
- Key insight: America's largest bank has donated $14 million to organizations battling scams, indicating how seriously the bank takes the growing problem of fraud in the U.S.
- Supporting data: In 2025, Americans lost $15.9 billion to fraud, according to the Federal Trade Commission.
- Expert quote: "The quality of the scam, the fake, the social engineering is much, much better than it was previously." — Clark Frogley, former FBI investigator
ICBA urges OCC to halt Kraken parent's trust charter bid - The community bank trade group says crypto firms are combining stablecoin rules, Fed master account access and trust charters to replicate banking without bank rules. (Independent Community Bankers Of America)
- Key insight: ICBA's three asks — pause the charter review, rescind a 2021 interpretive letter and undertake a new rulemaking — all run into walls the OCC has already built under Comptroller Jonathan Gould.
- What's at stake: A trust-chartered crypto firm could hold stablecoin reserves at a Fed master account and push out a dollar product that looks and feels like a bank account but lacks FDIC insurance and the consumer protections that go with one.
- Supporting data: ICBA projects that if stablecoin issuers pay yield on their tokens, the resulting deposit drain could cost community banks $1.3 trillion and cut their lending by roughly $850 billion, hitting small businesses, farmers and rural borrowers the hardest.
Overview bullets generated by AI with editorial review.
Banks mobilize against crypto market structure bill markup — A planned markup in the Senate Banking Committee on crypto market structure legislation has bank groups mobilizing their members to lobby lawmakers against the legislation.
- Key insight: The Senate Banking Committee is set to mark up crypto market structure legislation that would restrict stablecoin yield offerings, though it falls short of banks' wishes.
- What's at stake: The American Bankers Association is urging members to contact lawmakers, warning that allowing yield-like rewards on stablecoins could drain deposits from the banking system and threaten financial stability.
- Forward look: Banks face an uphill fight against a crypto lobby that outspent the banking industry in the last election cycle and is already gearing up to do the same again ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Banks continue to push back on what they describe as insufficient protections against stablecoin yield as the Senate Banking Committee is poised to mark up its long-awaited crypto market structure bill this week.
A banker's guide to the Senate's crypto bill markup — Some lawmakers may be forced to choose sides between the crypto and banking industries at a highly watched markup of a crypto market structure bill in the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.
- Key insight: A critical markup will show how many lawmakers will side with the crypto industry over banks on banning stablecoin yield.
- What's at stake: Lawmakers will consider amendments that would make the changes that the banking industry prefers, but getting enough votes to approve them would require Republican buy-in, which is far from assured.
- Forward look: If the legislation passes in a party-line vote, the banking industry will have more opportunities to make changes when the bill comes before the full Senate and when it comes under consideration in the House.
Amendments to a long-awaited crypto market structure bill slated to be marked up in the Senate Banking Committee Thursday would force lawmakers to vote for or against the banking industry's desired changes to the legislation.
Scott denies vote on bank-favored fix on yield — Crypto market structure legislation passed the Senate Banking Committee in a 15 to 9 vote after Republicans and key Democrats reached a bipartisan agreement during the markup.
- Key insight: Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., used his discretion to decide against calling up banks' desired changes to the yield compromise for a vote, meaning the legislation passed with language that bankers have lobbied hard against.
- Forward look: The legislation passed the committee 15 to 9, leaving it unclear whether proponents will be able to get the 60 necessary votes to bring the legislation to the full Senate floor, although the limited bipartisan support means that the measure could have sufficient bipartisan support.
- What's at stake: Bankers have long argued the legislation's prohibition on yield for stablecoins doesn't go far enough and could drain deposits from the banking system.
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott, R-S.C., flatly denied multiple pleas from Democrats to consider their amendment to a crypto market structure bill being marked up in the committee Thursday that would make banking industry-favored changes to the yield provision. The committee passed the measure in a 15 to 9 vote.
As payment partnerships proliferate, here's how bank risks are changing -With regulatory scrutiny on the rise, banks are putting payment collaborations under the microscope.
- Key insights: Banks partner with fintechs for a host of services, including processing payments, buy now/pay later, international payments, virtual accounts, stablecoins and other crypto services.
- What's at stake: These connections have strengthened over time, but the need to control risk has grown as well.
- Forward look: Regulators are pressuring banks to improve operational resilience, third-party risk, data governance and AI transparency.
Many banks are battening down the hatches on fintech partnerships to mitigate risk more effectively.
Trump's 'war on DEI' reaches PayPal -- The Trump administration's pressure on financial services designed for Black and minority communities has reached PayPal, which has agreed to a $30 million settlement tied to a former program that supported Black and minority-owned businesses.
- Key insights: PayPal settled a "DEI" case with the Department of Justice for $30 million.
- What's at stake: The government cited a PayPal program that focused on Black and minority-owned small businesses as illegally having a racial preference.
- Forward look: As part of the settlement, PayPal announced a new Small Business Initiative that includes education and financial assistance.
The payment company will waive transaction fees totaling about $30 million for veteran-owned, farming, manufacturing or technology-based small businesses following an investigation into a 6-year-old former investment program designed for Black and minority-owned small businesses.
FDIC: Big depositors drove run risk in 2023 - A postmortem report released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Thursday on the historic bank failures in 2023 found that size and sophistication of depositors at Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank were the largest predictor of whether a depositor would run.
- Key insight: The largest uninsured depositors were most likely to flee in 2023 runs, even when taking into account insurance coverage and deposit types.
- Supporting data: SVB and Signature each lost over half of deposits in days, and First Republic would have lost nearly that much if not for a cash infusion from the banking industry.
- Forward look: The report's findings could shape the ongoing discourse over deposit insurance reform in Congress.
A report from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. found that business clients with large volumes of uninsured deposits fled Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic at unprecedented speed, contributing to those banks' collapses.
FDIC clears way for Stellantis ILC charter - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Thursday approved car manufacturer Stellantis' application for deposit insurance, clearing a major hurdle to the company's pursuit of an Industrial Loan Company charter.
- Key insight: The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. approved Stellantis' deposit insurance application, clearing the way for the auto giant to provide auto lending services in-house.
- Expert quote: "Funding will primarily consist of deposits from affiliated entities, brokers, and listing services, as well as consumers and businesses nationwide via the bank's website and mobile application." — FDIC release
- Supporting data: Over a dozen National Trust charters have been approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency during the second Trump administration.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. waived through the Jeep, Ram, Dodge and Chrysler manufacturer's application to conduct banking activities. While banks have opposed ILCs in the past, other charters pose more pressing competitive threats at the moment.
Dems say SBA left businesses vulnerable to 'predatory' financing
- Key Insight: Tariff-driven price shocks drove many small businesses to take out expensive merchant cash advances, and the Small Business Administration changed a rule that prevented those cash-strapped business owners from refinancing into government-backed loans, according to two Democratic senators.
- Expert Quote: "This closes an essential escape route for small businesses trapped in spiraling MCA debt." — Sens. Ed Markey and Ron Wyden
- Supporting Data: Merchants cash advances often carry exorbitant fees and de facto interest rates that exceed 100%.
Sens. Ed Markey and Ron Wyden argue that the Small Business Administration neglected to warn small firms of the risks of merchant cash advances and closed off a key "escape route" from the resulting debts.
Newsom taps Chopra to lead new California oversight agency - In this week's banking news roundup:In a move seen to bolster his 2028 presidential run, California Governor Gavin Newsom named Rohit Chopra, the former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, to lead a new oversight agency; a Pine Bluff, Arkansas, bank employee was sentenced to 36 months in federal prison for bank theft; a Fairfax, Virginia, security administrator has been charged with allegedly stealing more than $6.6 million from his employer; and more in this week's banking news roundup.Governor Gavin Newsom announced the hiring this week of Rohit Chopra, the former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, to lead a new oversight agency that will police industries as disparate as alcohol, cannabis, horse racing and financial services. Chopra has been named secretary of the Business and Consumer Services Agency that will launch July 1. The position requires confirmation by the state Senate and pays $254,450 a year. An agency that polices corporate wrongdoing is seen as a play to bolster Newsom's 2028 presidential run. Chopra will have oversight over eight agencies including California's Department of Financial Protection and Inclusion, which oversees financial services, as well as the Department of Alcoholic Beverage Control, Department of Cannabis Control, California Horse Racing Board and Department of Real Estate. In a press release, Newsom said he hired Chopra "as the Trump administration turns its back on consumers." The CFPB, that Chopra once led, has been radically scaled back — and a majority of rules Chopra finalized have been repealed — by the Trump administration.
House advances community bank relief bills -- The House of Representatives on Tuesday night passed three bipartisan bills targeted at providing relief and support for small financial institutions, continuing the initiative by House Republicans to ease regulatory burdens on community lenders.
- Key insight: The House passed three bipartisan bills aimed at reducing regulation on small banks.
- Supporting data: The SMART Act provides flexible, less intense exam options to firms under $6B in assets deemed well managed and capitalized.
- Forward look: The Independent Community Bankers of America urged the Senate to quickly advance the bills.
The trio of community bank regulatory relief bills passed by the House of Representatives on Tuesday night would ease exam intensity and frequency for smaller firms; it would also expand Treasury mentorships between community banks and larger lenders.
House reworks institutional investor ban in housing bill - House lawmakers have reached a bipartisan deal on a housing bill that significantly modifies the Senate version's ban on institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes.
- Key insight: Large institutional investors would still be able to buy single-family homes under a House-drafted housing bill that dropped a ban that had been included in the Senate version of the bill.
- What's at stake: Lawmakers argued that restricting big-money investors would inadvertently stifle new home building and construction.
- Forward look: Bankers remain wary of the bill due to concerns over long-term regulatory changes, which they say could have unintended consequences.
House lawmakers modified a ban on big-money investors from purchasing single-family homes, broadening the exemptions for build-to-rent properties and eliminating requirements in a Senate version of the bill that affected investors divest their holding
End of FHA pandemic relief to kick off wave of foreclosures -- The Federal Housing Administration put an end to pandemic-era relief last year, triggering a 28% jump in foreclosures on FHA loans in the first quarter and an expected spike in defaults ahead.
Goldman Flags Troubling Mortgage Delinquency Rise Across This U.S. Region - Mortgage delinquencies fell slightly in March, with the first-lien delinquency rate declining to 3.35%, down 37 basis points from February, as seasonal factors and tax refunds supported borrowers. The real estate and mortgage industry outlet HousingWire cited Intercontinental Exchange’s May 2026 Mortgage Monitor report, which showed that while the overall mortgage delinquency rate fell in March, there was still concern over serious delinquencies and foreclosures, which are up by 154,000 borrowers from one year ago. The increase was driven mostly by FHA loans, which rose by 164,000 and now account for a record 55% of seriously past-due mortgages. Overall, 1.6% of active mortgages are seriously delinquent, up 20% year over year. A lot of questions here... Adding to the mortgage delinquency story is Goldman analyst Jason Acosta, who released a note earlier today, showing what he described to clients as the "chart of the day." The chart indicates that mortgage past-due rates are highest across parts of the Deep South, with Mississippi and Louisiana as the worst-performing states, followed by elevated stress in Alabama, Texas, Indiana, Georgia, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and others. "On a national level, mortgage delinquencies eased in March, yet higher-severity stress remained elevated even amid the strongest monthly gain in U.S. home prices in two years," Acosta said. He added, "We just released a new widget looking at past-due rates on a state-by-state basis below, with updates incoming to select between ranges of 30-59 days, 60-89 days, and 90 days+." Here is the chart: What is the mortgage past-due rate by state?
Supply of Existing Single-Family Homes Rises to Highest in 10 Years, Condo Supply Highest since 2012, Sales in Deepfreeze By Wolf Richter . Sales of existing single-family homes that closed in April seasonally adjusted were unchanged from March, at an annual rate of 3.64 million sales, near the very bottom of the deepfreeze range that has existed for the past three-and-a-half years, according to data by the National Association of Realtors today. Supply of single-family homes jumped to 4.4 months in April (red line with big red squares in the chart below), the highest supply for April since 2016. Supply is a function of inventory and sales (demand). Inventory in a vacuum doesn’t matter all that much; what matters is how much inventory there is in relationship to sales, and sales have plunged while inventories have been rising (historical data from YCharts). Sales of condos and co-ops ticked up seasonally adjusted in April from March to an annual rate of 380,000, near the very bottom of the data, which go back only to late 2011: Supply of condos: The NAR has had a data issue with its condo supply figure that started this year. The originally reported figure has been much lower than the prior figures, but then a month later, it gets massively revised higher. For example, a month ago, NAR reported supply for March as 4.3 months, a total outlier in the figures. Today, NAR revised March supply up to 6.0 months’ supply. This has been going on for the past few months, with revisions adding close to 2 months each time. So I stopped reporting the original figures because I don’t want to look like a goofball a month later, but only report the revised supply figures. So March, condo supply was revised up to 6.0 months, the highest for any March since March 2012, the first March in the data series (red line with big red squares in the chart below). The national median price of single-family homes inched up year-over-year by 1.0% in April, not seasonally adjusted. The median price of single-family homes had exploded by 41% from June 2020 through June 2022, from already high prices. Those now too-high prices form the core of the “affordability issues” that are dogging the housing market and are one reason home sales have remained in the deepfreeze.
Household Debts, Debt-to-Income Ratio, Serious Delinquencies, Foreclosures, Collections & Bankruptcies in Q1 2026 -By Wolf Richter Total household debt outstanding in Q1 – mortgages, HELOCs, student loans, auto loans, credit card balances, and other consumer loans such as personal loans and BNPL loans – was nearly unchanged compared to the prior quarter, at $18.79 trillion, according to the Household Debt and Credit Report from the New York Fed today, which obtained this data via its partnership with Equifax. Year-over-year, household debt rose by 3.2%, or by $591 billion. Compared to the prior quarter: HELOC balances jumped, auto loan balances rose, credit card balances fell, mortgage balances edged up, and student loan balances were essentially unchanged. But the number of households has grown over the years, and the income per household has grown on average, and total household income has grown faster than total household debt, and the burden of this debt on that income has declined over the years. The debt-to-income ratio is one of the standard ways of measuring the burden of a debt. With households, an appropriate income measure is “disposable income,” released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable income is essentially the monthly after-tax income consumers have available to spend for their costs of living, to service their debts, and to save and invest. It consists of after-tax wages, plus income from interest, dividends, rentals, farm income, small business income, transfer payments from the government, etc. But it excludes capital gains, which is where the wealthy make most of their money. Excluded are thereby income from stock-based compensation plans and capital appreciation where billionaires make their billions. The debt-to-disposable income ratio in Q1 dropped to 79.9%, as disposable income rose to a record while debt balances essentially remained unchanged. This ratio was the lowest in the data going back to 2003, except for two quarters during the stimulus era, when disposable income was bloated out of all proportion by massive government handouts, including the stimulus checks, PPP loans, and numerous other programs. Consumers are working and earning record amounts of disposable income, and their aggregate balance sheet is in good shape: 65% own their own homes, and about 40% of them own their homes free and clear, while another big portion has only a relatively small balance left on their mortgages. Over 60% of households have at least some equities, and their prices have exploded. And they hold precious metals and cryptos and are sitting on $5 trillion in money market funds plus a pile of CDs. In other words, the balance sheet of the economic entity of American households is in good shape – unlike some other economic entities that are massively overleveraged, such as certain corners of finance, parts of Corporate America, and of course the federal government; that’s where the leverage and risks are, not with households this time around.
Energy shock drives consumer prices up 0.6% in April — The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices continued to rise in April, with the Consumer Price Index increasing 0.6% for the month and 3.8% from a year earlier, driven largely by a steep increase in energy prices. Gasoline prices rose 5.4% in April after surging 21.1% the previous month. As a result, the overall energy index slowed from 10.9% to 3.8%. The BLS said the energy index accounted for more than 40% of the overall increase.
- Key takeaway: Inflation in April continued to accelerate among all categories tracked, despite slight dips in the overall energy index.
- Supporting data: The Consumer Price Index, a monthly indicator of consumer inflation, rose by 0.6% in April and 3.8% year over year.
- What's at stake: Federal Reserve officials are likely watching the latest inflation figures closely as they assess whether the energy shock stemming from the Iran war will meaningfully accelerate broader price pressures.
The Consumer Price Index for April showed consumer prices rising across all categories, including food and shelter costs, and up 3.8% year-over-year. Grocery prices rose 0.7% from the month prior.
Fed survey: Americans feel financially secure despite prices — U.S. households generally felt financially secure in 2025, though many remained concerned about rising prices for goods and services.
- Key takeaway: The survey, conducted last October, found that 73% of adults said they were "living comfortably" in 2025, a figure unchanged from the year prior.
- Supporting data: Respondents viewed the national economy less favorably than their own financial situations. Nearly one-fourth of adults, or 24%, rated the national economy as "good," down 3% from 2024.
- What's at stake: Inflation pressures, already a concern last year, are expected to remain a concern in 2026 as the war in Iran drives up energy costs and those costs ripple through the economy.
An annual Federal Reserve survey of nearly 13,000 respondents found that households generally felt financially secure in 2025, though many cited rising prices as a lingering concern.
Rising Jet Fuel And Ticket Prices Could Disrupt Summer Air Travel -- Summer travel could be disrupted for millions of airline passengers as airlines pass on higher jet fuel prices onto air fares and cancel unprofitable routes, according to the global association Airports Council International. The surge in jet fuel prices as a result of the Middle East crisis leads to higher air fares. Passengers should be prepared for higher ticket prices for longer, Stefano Baronci, the Airports Council International’s director general of Asia Pacific and Middle East, told Bloomberg in an interview published on Wednesday. Supplies of the fuel from the Middle East cannot move past the Strait of Hormuz, while Asian refiners slashed exports amid reduced run rates and preference and/or orders to keep more supply for their respective domestic markets. So, the recent crash in global exports of jet fuel – which is the most stressed barrel during the ongoing supply shock – was not unexpected. Jet fuel supplies from Northeast Asia and India West Coast crashed and tightened the global jet fuel market so much that officials and airline executives started talking about fuel shortages in a few weeks’ time. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned in mid-April that Europe has “maybe six weeks or so” of remaining jet fuel supply.But the Airports Council International’s Baronci dismissed concerns about shortages, noting that the high prices remain the key problem for the industry going forward. With higher air fares, demand destruction is inevitable and airlines could opt to slash more routes this summer, he added. Earlier this month, Lufthansa Group, Europe’s biggest airline, said it expects the surge in jet fuel prices to cost it an additional $2 billion this year as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz “is leading to a shortage in kerosene supply and thus to a significant increase in kerosene prices.” The war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have severely constrained Europe’s jet fuel supply, while jet fuel prices spiked to over $200 per barrel in April before easing to about $150 a barrel this month, which is still way above pre-war levels.
Producer Price Inflation Explodes as the Services PPI Blows Out on Top of the Energy Price Spike By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET. The Producer Price Index final demand (PPI), which tracks inflation in prices that companies pay each other, spiked by 1.38% in April from March (+17.8% annualized), seasonally adjusted, the worst since the historic one-month spike in March 2022, driven by services and energy. It had already spiked by 8.7% annualized in March – and by 7.0% and 6.6% annualized in February and January before the energy price spike hit (blue in the chart). Year-over-year, it spiked by 6.0%, the worst since December 2022, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics today (red in the chart). The shocker is the spike in services, and services dominate the PPI. The services PPI weighs 68% of the overall PPI, and it completely blew out – that was in addition to the spike in energy prices, and it also shows how some of the energy price increases have moved into other parts of the economy. The services PPI spiked by 1.18% (+15.1% annualized) in April from March, seasonally adjusted. Year-over-year, the services PPI jumped by 5.5%, the worst since November 2022. The low point, the point of the coolest recent services PPI inflation, was in December 2023 at 1.8%. The inflation rate has multiplied by more than three since then. Within the services PPI:
- Trade services (weigh 19% in overall PPI) spiked a huge +2.7% month-to-month not annualized in April from March.
- Transportation & warehousing services (weigh 4.9% in overall PPI) exploded by 5.0% not annualized in April from March.
- But “other services” (weighs 38% in overall PPI) ticked up only +0.1%, after no change in the prior month.
This is really bad. Core PPI Final Demand, which excludes energy and food components, spiked by 1.03% (+13.1% annualized) in April from March, seasonally adjusted. This shows the massive impact of the blow-out of the services inflation in PPI, since the price spike of energy components is excluded from the core PPI. Year-over-year, core PPI jumped by 5.2%, the worst since December 2022. The PPI for energy prices spiked by 7.8% in April from March (+145% annualized), which came on top of the 10.1% spike in March. This pushed the year-over-year increase to 22.4% in April. The energy PPI performs such huge spikes and plunges that the year-over-year percentage changes blast through the top and bottom of the chart; so to gain some perspective, it’s helpful to look at the price level, rather than the percent change. The chart shows the price level of the energy PPI. The big spikes in March and April pushed the price level to the highest since July 2022. The PPI for core goods (goods without food and energy) jumped by 0.65% (+8.1% annualized). This pushed the year-over-year increase to 4.6%, the worst since February 2023. This is a massive amount of inflation in prices that companies pay each other and are trying to pass on to each other. And some of that will seep into consumer price inflation measures, such as the CPI and PCE price index. The Fed has a real problem on its hands, and it has been boiling for months at the PPI level, and some of it already seeped into consumer price inflation, with the CPI jumping by 3.8% in April on core services and energy, but that jump didn’t yet include the dynamics working their way through the business sector in April.
Five Schools Receive Inaugural National Prize for Innovative Career Exploration Programs --- Building Hope and Britebound today named five winning schools in the inaugural Future Forward Schools Prize, awarding $250,000 to schools that are helping students – particularly those from under-resourced communities – explore and prepare for future careers beginning as early as middle school.The Future Forward Schools Prize is a three-year national initiative recognizing schools that have built innovative, scalable models for connecting student learning to real-world careers. The winners were selected from a competitive pool of 256 national applicants. Each winner will receive prize funding and join the Future Forward Schools Fellowship, which offers retreats and pro bono advisory support."Too many of our nation's schools are still preparing students for a world that no longer exists," said Bill Hansen, President and CEO of Building Hope. "These five schools are doing something different — they're giving students, especially those from communities that have historically been left out of economic opportunity, the chance to discover what they're good at and what they want to pursue. That kind of early investment in career exploration isn't just good for students. It's good for the communities and workforce they'll one day help build.""Research is clear that students want to connect what they're learning to where they're headed — and they want to start that process far earlier than we've traditionally allowed," said Julie Lammers, President and CEO of Britebound. "These winning schools are strengthening student engagement and purpose to better prepare young people for the future. We're proud to support them."The five inaugural Future Forward Schools Prize winners are:
- Comp Sci High (Bronx, NY): This South Bronx charter school prepares students for economic independence through rigorous, real-world training in computer science, AI, app development, media, and cybersecurity. Every student completes three paid internships before graduation — with the Class of 2025 logging more than 22,000 hours of paid work experience and a 100% graduation rate. Prize funding will help launch a new alternative high school for out-of-school youth and expand its alumni support program.
- UP Academy Dorchester (Boston, MA): Through its Imagine Your Future program, UP Academy connects middle school students — 99% of whom are students of color — with leading Boston companies for hands-on career exploration, site visits, mentorship, and project-based learning. The program has helped UAD rank first in English Language Arts (ELA) growth among high-needs schools statewide and earn recognition as a Tier 1 school. Prize funding will help scale the model and deepen its research partnership to reach more students during the critical middle school years.
- Utica Shale Academy of Ohio (Salineville, OH): Serving at-risk students across four Appalachian counties, Utica Shale Academy embeds industry credentials in welding, robotics, and manufacturing directly into students' graduation pathways — with more than 900 certifications earned in a single year. Named the nation's top high school for employer collaboration by NC3, the Academy pairs rigorous technical training with wraparound support to help students achieve living-wage careers. Prize funding will launch a new Wheel Service and Alignment Certification program, adding another hands-on pathway for students.
- Old Brook High School Parma Campus (Parma, OH): Old Brook's student-centered model empowers students to simultaneously earn a high school diploma and industry-recognized credentials across culinary arts, healthcare, construction, and manicuring — including a four-year 100% cosmetology board pass rate. With 90% of graduates reporting strong employment or enrollment outcomes within a year, Old Brook combines individualized support with real-world experience to prepare students for careers and life after graduation. Prize funding will expand industry immersion experiences and provide financial support for graduates pursuing post-secondary education in their chosen field.
- New Mexico School for the Arts (Santa Fe, NM): NMSA is a tuition-free statewide charter school offering 2,000+ hours of pre-professional arts training alongside rigorous academics, achieving a 97% graduation rate well above the state's 77% average. Its newly launching Film & Cinematic Storytelling Department will prepare students from 55 communities across New Mexico to enter the state's booming film industry. Prize funding will support the department's critical first year of operations.
"Our students don't lack potential — they arrive lacking access, exposure, and opportunity," said Megan Foster, Principal, Old Brook High School Parma Campus. "I know that story personally: a single teacher changed my trajectory by making me believe in my own future, and that's exactly what Old Brook does every day. This prize means we can do even more of that work, for even more students."
Cancer patients seek unproven antiparasitic treatments after actor's podcast appearance - Prescriptions for ivermectin and another antiparasitic drug among cancer patients shot up after actor Mel Gibson discussed an unproven treatment on Joe Rogan's popular podcast, according to a study published today in JAMA Network Open. Researchers say these findings raise concerns about the potency of celebrity endorsement, which can encourage people with life-threatening illnesses to delay or forgo conventional care that's been confirmed to work in favor of unproven and arguably risky treatments. The study analyzed electronic medical records from 68,373,949 patients across 67 health systems in the United States in search of prescribing rates of ivermectin and benzimidazole. There have been no clinical trials on ivermectin-benzimidazole’s safety and efficacy for treating cancer in people. Some cell and animal studies show that the drugs can produce anti-cancer activity. But the dose needed to have even a small effect would typically be considered toxic for humans, said Skyler B. Johnson, MD, of the University of Utah Huntsman Cancer Institute. Johnson wasn’t involved in the study but told CIDRAP News that he worries how ivermectin might affect the way the body processes cancer treatments and other medications. Despite this lack of proof and possible danger, Gibson claimed on Rogan's podcast in January 2025 that a combination of ivermectin and benzimidazole cured cancer in several of his friends. The episode was viewed 60 million times within the first month, and prescribing rates of both medications rocketed. Prescribing doubled among all patients from January 1, 2025, to July 31, 2025, compared with January 1, 2024, to July 31, 2024. For cancer patients, rates were even higher, increasing 2.5 times. White patients, men, and people living in the South were most likely to have an ivermectin-benzimidazole prescription, according to the study. Even if people are unharmed by taking these medications, needless prescribing creates excess expense and clogs up an already dysfunctional medical system, explained lead author Michelle Rockwell, PhD, RD, a health services researcher at Virginia Tech. "Clinicians talk about how difficult it is when the patient demands or asks for a medication that they really feel passionately might help," she said. "And that's where I think these celebrity influencers really play a big role." Frustrations with the healthcare system, pharmaceutical pricing, and insurance barriers create real grievances that make people easier to exploit, explained Matthew Facciani, PhD, a social scientist at the Yale School of Public Health who wasn't involved in the study. “We don't know whether patients were taking ivermectin alongside conventional treatment or in place of it," said Facciani. "This is a distinction with very different public health implications." Ivermectin was also viewed as potential treatment for COVID-19 early in the pandemic, but several clinical trials found it did not lower the risk of severe disease, prevent hospitalization, or speed time to recovery. Misinformation about the drug was linked to a surge in overdose calls to poison control centers in 2021.
Iodine deficiency is creeping back. Vegans, vegetarians and pregnant women are most at risk -Iodine deficiency is often seen as a problem of the past, but this isn't entirely true. During the 20th century, the iodization of salt became one of the most effective public health interventions for preventing conditions caused by a lack of this mineral, including goiter (enlargement of the thyroid gland) and preventable damage to neurological development.The World Health Organization (WHO) still views iodized salt as a safe and effective strategy, while UNICEF notes that it is the most widely used way of improving iodine intake worldwide.However, the success of this simple measure means iodine has all but disappeared from public debate. And today, in several countries, signs of insufficient intake are once again being detected in certain groups, particularly in pregnant or breastfeeding women and people on restrictive or poorly planned diets.What we are witnessing is not a dramatic resurgence of the most severe symptoms everywhere, but rather a silent risk of deficiency in contexts where vigilance has waned. Iodine is an essential micronutrient for the synthesis of thyroxine (T4) and triiodothyronine (T3), hormones that regulate metabolism, growth, and many physiological processes. Adequate intake during pregnancy and early childhood is particularly important for the normal development of the central nervous system and for the early stages of brain maturation.In addition, the body's needs increase during pregnancy and breastfeeding due to increased maternal production of thyroid hormones, greater renal excretion of iodine, and the transfer of this mineral to the fetus and the infant.The issue is not that people have stopped consuming salt, but rather that the type of salt they consume has changed, as have the sources of sodium in their diet. In recent years, iodized salt has been replaced in many households by "gourmet" or "natural" salts. These include sea salt, pink Himalayan salt, flaked salt and kosher salt, which are often perceived as more sophisticated or healthier, even though they are not always iodized.In a way, iodized salt has an image problem. Compared to the culinary prestige of its trendy rivals, it has come to be viewed as something ordinary, outdated even.Today, a lot of our salt intake also comes from processed and ultra-processed foods, meaning the use of iodized salt cannot be guaranteed. For this reason, the World Health Organization has called for coordination between policies that aim to reduce sodium intake and those that promote iodized salt.The makeup of our diets has also changed a lot. Iodine is naturally present in all seafood, some dairy products and in eggs, though the quantity may vary from one region or food system to another. When a person reduces or cuts out several of these sources at once while not also consuming iodized salt or fortified foods, the risk of deficiency increases. The result is that a basic, inexpensive, and effective micronutrient has fallen out of the spotlight just as certain groups are once again at risk of not getting enough iodine.
Virus in the vents: Study traces COVID spread in high-rise apartment | A COVID-19 outbreak in a residential building in Spain during the early months of the pandemic likely spread through shared bathroom ventilation ducts, according to a study published this week in PLOS One. The outbreak occurred in June 2020 in a seven-story apartment building in the city of Santander in northern Spain, during a period when transmission in the city (population 172,000) had dropped to zero. Fifteen COVID cases were identified in four vertically stacked apartments connected by the same bathroom ventilation shaft. No cases were detected in surrounding apartments or elsewhere in the building. A team led by researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder sequenced virus samples from infected residents to confirm that the cases were connected, then measured air flow and air pressure in the building. They also tested carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in a vacant apartment. Because CO2 is released into the air when people exhale, high levels of it wouldn’t be expected in a vacant apartment. But the empty apartment was full of it. “It was like there was a ghost in the room,” David Higuera, an engineer who lived in the building and who first suspected the bathroom ventilation system as the culprit, said in a news release. The building was constructed in the late 1960s, before new building code standards were introduced in 1970. Units had shared bathroom ducts that used natural convection to vent air out through the roof, a phenomenon known as the chimney or stack effect. That process is driven by temperature-induced differences in air density. But factors like operating a kitchen fan, opening windows, or pressure changes in the building can reverse the flow of air in the ducts, causing it to go back into the apartments rather than out through the roof. The researchers concluded that infectious aerosols likely traveled through the building’s shared vertical bathroom duct system, allowing virus-laden air from one apartment to enter bathrooms in units above and below. “The most plausible transmission route was the bathroom vertical ventilation duct system, which facilitated movement of infectious aerosol between vertically connected homes,” write the authors. Residents in units who had modified or blocked their bathroom ventilation systems before the outbreak did not experience infections. This style of ventilation system is uncommon in the United States, but the outbreak shines a light on a broader concern. “Even if you are far from the source, if your air is connected, you can still get sick,” senior author Shelly Miller, PhD, professor emerita in the Department of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Colorado Boulder, said in the release. “This can happen in a multifamily apartment building through the ducts, in a hotel between the hallway and rooms off the hallway, in office buildings between offices or on a cruise ship.”
Many older adults who died of COVID weren’t close to death before infection, study suggests About 28% of older people in England who died of COVID-19 in the first 2.5 years of the pandemic would likely, if uninfected, have lived at least another five years, a new model-based analysis estimates. Researchers from the government’s Office for Health Improvement and Disparities in London led the study, which was published late last week in PLOS One. The team used linked health data from March 2020 to September 2022 to estimate the survival of nearly 16 million English people aged 65 years and older had they not contracted COVID-19. “Critics of the pandemic response have suggested that those that died were mostly very vulnerable and close to death,” they noted. “If this were true, the economic impact of measures to control the pandemic could not be justified in terms of any benefits in controlling mortality.” This study, they said, differed from previous research on COVID-19 excess mortality in that it considered factors such as underlying illnesses, vaccination status, and pandemic wave. Women and men would probably have lived another 4.8 (interquartile range [IQR, 1.5 to 16) years and 4.4(IQR, 1.4 to 12.6) years, respectively, had they not contracted COVID-19. The survival difference was greatest in those aged 65 to 69 (median, 14.4 years [IQR, 0.5 to 38.8] for women and 9.9 years [IQR, 1.1 to 26.2] for men) and during the second pandemic wave (September 2020 to March 2021). “We estimate that 23.5% of deaths aged 65 and over would not have been expected to survive more than one year,” the researchers wrote. “However, 28% would have been expected to have survived for 5 years or more had they not had the disease.” “Life expectancy of those who died with COVID-19 was substantial and, based on our analysis of vulnerability, most of those who died at ages 65 and over are unlikely to have been close to death,” they added. “In future pandemics, real-time modelling of displacement would be helpful in assessing the mortality impact of the pandemic.”
No link between maternal COVID infection and birth defects, data suggest - Maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy was not associated with an increased risk of congenital anomalies in newborns, according to a large population-based study published last week in JAMA Network Open. Some initial studies had raised concerns about maternal COVID infection and birth defects, specifically heart abnormalities, while other research has shown no connection. For the new study, researchers led by a team at the University of Toronto analyzed 5,049 live births involving laboratory-confirmed maternal COVID infection and matched them to 20,196 live births without maternal infection from December 2020 through December 2021. The team found that congenital anomalies occurred in 3.2% of infants born to COVID-infected mothers, compared with 3.1% of those born to uninfected mothers. That translated to 32.5 anomalies per 1,000 live births versus 31.1 anomalies per 1,000 live births, a difference that was not statistically significant. The rate of abnormalities was similar regardless of when infection occurred during pregnancy. COVID infection during the first trimester was associated with 34.9 congenital anomalies per 1,000 live births, while no infection during the first trimester was associated with 31.8 anomalies per 1,000 live births. This, too, was a nonsignificant difference. There were also no statistically significant differences in incidence rates between groups in the second or third trimesters. When the team looked specifically at the connection between congenital heart defects and COVID infection, they found that cardiac anomaly rates were slightly higher in newborns with maternal COVID exposure during pregnancy—10.7 versus 8.8 per 1,000 live births—but, again, the difference was not statistically significant. When COVID infection happened in the first trimester, the rate of cardiac anomalies was 14.1 per 1,000 live births, compared with 8.0 per 1,000 in pregnancies without a first-trimester exposure. While the incidence estimate for first-trimester exposure was slightly higher, the difference again did not reach statistical significance. “Noncritical cardiac defects represented the largest category of congenital anomalies in this study,” write the researchers. “However, these numbers were low overall in both groups. Following multivariable adjustment, there remained no association between maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection and neonatal cardiac anomalies.” The researchers noted some demographic differences between pregnant women with COVID infection and those without. “Compared with patients without infection, those with infection were more likely to be immigrants and to have high levels of material deprivation and were less likely to receive COVID-19 vaccination and live in rural areas,” they write. Adjusting for those factors, however, did not alter the results.
COVID vaccination may protect household members -- Many studies show that COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of severe disease, hospitalization, and death. There is less evidence about whether COVID-19 shots make people less contagious. New research, however, has found that COVID-19 patients who were vaccinated against the virus were much less likely to infect household members than unvaccinated patients, according to a study published today in JAMA Network Open. Researchers studied 362 patients who saw a healthcare professional outside the hospital because of COVID-19 symptoms and who also tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The study authors also followed up with about 760 of patients’ household contacts. Overall, 62% of household contacts of patients with the virus soon tested positive for COVID-19.But the household contacts of patients vaccinated in the past six months were 43% less likely to test positive than household contacts of unvaccinated sick people, the study shows. Although the vaccinated patients in the study still developed COVID-19, it’s likely that the vaccine helped them by reducing the amount of virus in their bodies, said Amesh Adalja, MD, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, who was not involved with the new study. People with lower viral levels cough shed fewer viruses when they cough or sneeze, making them less likely to infect those around them.Household contacts were no more or less likely to test positive for COVID-19, however, if the sick person in their home was vaccinated seven or more months prior. That finding suggests that COVID-19 vaccine protection wanes over time.The study was conducted in New York, Tennessee, and Washington state from January 1, 2024, to January 31, 2025. Patients who tested positive for COVID-19 were enrolled in the study within six days of becoming ill. Patients were excluded from the study if they were vaccinated within two weeks or less of becoming sick.The median age of patients in the study was 35 years old. The authors note, “While the individual benefit of COVID-19 vaccination may vary by age and chronic medical conditions, COVID-19 vaccination may have indirect benefits by decreasing transmission and thus reducing overall exposure to SARS-COV-2.”
CIDRAP Op-Ed: Why the FDA tried to bury studies showing vaccines are safe - In October, US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) scientists were directed to withdraw two COVID-19 vaccine safety studies that had already been accepted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. In February, top officials refused to sign off on submitting two abstracts on the Shingrix vaccine, used to prevent shingles, to a major drug safety conference. Christina Jewett at the New York Times reported the scope of these decisions.A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) confirmed the withdrawals on the record, saying the studies were withdrawn because "the authors drew broad conclusions that were not supported by the underlying data" and that "the F.D.A. acted to protect the integrity of its scientific process and ensure that any work associated with the agency meets its high standards." The studies are public. Anyone can read them. The FDA's own scientists, working with the active surveillance system Congress mandated after the withdrawal of Vioxx, an anti-inflammatory pain reliever, in 2004 after it was tied to increased heart attacks and strokes, produced findings consistent with every major post-market analysis of these vaccines published worldwide since 2023. The work was buried for reasons that have nothing to do with the underlying data.One of the COVID vaccine studies, involving US adults 65 and older, was withdrawn from the journal Drug Safety after acceptance. It analyzed more than 7 million Medicare beneficiaries who received the 2023-24 vaccine. The investigators evaluated 14 specific health outcomes, ranging from heart attacks and strokes to Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), an autoimmune condition that has been linked to certain vaccines. They identified one statistically meaningful signal: a small elevation in anaphylaxis (a severe allergic reaction) following the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. After they adjusted for the possibility that some "anaphylaxis" billing codes did not represent true cases, the signal disappeared. The attributable risk, before that adjustment, was less than one excess case of anaphylaxis per million doses administered. The investigators concluded that no new safety signals had been identified.The under-65 2023-24 COVID vaccine study, withdrawn from the journal Vaccine, examined 4.2 million recipients aged 6 months to 64 years across 17 health outcomes. The investigators flagged a rare elevation in the risk of febrile seizures (fever-related seizures) on the day of and the day after Moderna vaccination, in children aged 2 to 5 years. The exact case count was so small the researchers had to mask it for patient privacy. Fewer than 11 cases. A separate small signal for myocarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle) in adolescents lost statistical significance once the analysis accounted for the seasonal pattern of myocarditis in the general population. The investigators concluded that no new safety concerns had been identified.The Shingrix abstracts blocked from the February conference were routine updates to safety and effectiveness surveillance the FDA has been publishing transparently for years. To understand why their suppression matters, it helps to look at what the agency did with this same vaccine five years ago.In November 2021, an FDA team led by Ravi Goud, MD, MPH, with collaborators at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), published an analysis in JAMA Internal Medicine documenting an increased risk of GBS following Shingrix, the recombinant herpes zoster vaccine used to prevent shingles. The CDC had detected a preliminary statistical signal in its Vaccine Safety Datalink, comparing GBS rates after Shingrix to GBS rates after the older shingles vaccine, Zostavax. Rather than dismiss the signal or sit on it, the agencies launched a full investigation in the Medicare claims database.The methods were rigorous. The cohort analysis included roughly 850,000 Shingrix vaccinees and 1.8 million Zostavax vaccinees, all aged 65 or older. A self-controlled case series analysis added events from 2.1 million Shingrix recipients, comparing GBS incidence in the 42 days after each dose to incidence in days 43 through 183 in the same patients. To rule out billing artifacts, the team requested actual hospital records and had independent neurologists adjudicate each case against the standardized Brighton Collaboration definition.The surveillance confirmed a real but exceedingly rare signal. The medical-record-confirmed analysis found a roughly fivefold increase in GBS risk in the 42 days after vaccination, with an absolute attributable risk of 5.17 excess GBS cases per million doses. An extended analysis using a larger pool of cases narrowed the estimate to roughly 3 excess cases per million doses. The case-series design also let the team isolate when the risk occurred. It was concentrated almost entirely after the first dose. After the second dose, the rate ratio dropped to 0.22, with no statistically significant elevation.The FDA did not bury this finding. The agency added GBS to the Shingrix label as a known side effect. Goud and colleagues laid out the benefit-risk math in plain terms. Using their attributable risk and the trial efficacy of 97%, they estimated that a fully vaccinated population of 1 million people would experience about 6.26 excess cases of GBS, while preventing approximately 7,070 cases of shingles. The authors closed by recommending that clinicians be aware of the risk and that the benefit-risk balance remained clearly in favor of vaccination.The Shingrix abstracts blocked in February were routine updates to this same surveillance, conducted by the same career scientists, using the same methodology. According to the Times reporting, one abstract concerned vaccine effectiveness and found it in line with the original clinical trial data. The other concerned safety and found an elevated but low risk of GBS already known to and acted on by the agency. There was no hidden danger in either abstract, only an updated calculation of numbers the FDA itself put on the Shingrix label five years ago.A Nordic cohort study of 23.1 million residents of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, published in JAMA Cardiology in 2022, characterized the myocarditis risk after the original mRNA COVID vaccines with high precision. The risk was real, concentrated in young males, and highest after the second dose, particularly with Moderna. The investigators wrote that their data were "compatible with 4 to 7 excess events within 28 days per 100,000 vaccinees after a second dose of BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech], and 9 to 28 excess events within 28 days per 100,000 vaccinees after a second dose of mRNA-1273 [Moderna]." They concluded that the risk needed to be balanced against the benefits of these vaccines. The paper was not buried. It informed clinical practice.In the multinational Global Vaccine Data Network analysis published in Vaccine in 2024, Faksová and colleagues pooled data on more than 99 million vaccinated individuals across study sites in eight countries on four continents. Their analysis confirmed pre-established safety signals for myocarditis, pericarditis, GBS, and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (a rare type of blood clot in the brain). The pattern was internally consistent across the contributing countries.In a Danish nationwide cohort of more than 1.5 million adults aged 65 or older, or otherwise at high risk, who received the LP.8.1-containing mRNA vaccines used in the 2025-26 season, Hviid et al evaluated 30 prespecified adverse events of special interest in the 28 days after vaccination. Receipt of the vaccine was not associated with a statistically significant increased rate of hospital contacts for any of them.Across the 2023-24, bivalent (two-strain), and JN.1-lineage COVID vaccine formulations, post-market surveillance has consistently characterized the same small set of rare, well-defined adverse events. Myocarditis, concentrated in young males and declining substantially with newer formulations and longer dosing intervals (in a systematic review my colleagues and I published in the New England Journal of Medicine in October, the diagnosis occurred at rates of 1.3 to 3.1 per 100,000 doses in male adolescents). Anaphylaxis at a few cases per million doses. Rare GBS signals associated with specific products that have been characterized, labeled, and managed.That review synthesized 511 studies across the COVID-19, RSV, and influenza vaccines and concluded that "ongoing peer-reviewed evidence supports the safety and effectiveness of immunizations against Covid-19, RSV, and influenza during the 2025-2026 season."The suppressed FDA studies are not anomalies. They are corroborations. The agency's own scientists, looking at the agency's own data, found exactly what every other major surveillance system in the world has been finding. The decision to bury their work does not change the underlying evidence. It changes only the public's access to it.
Study highlights state-level differences in HPV vaccine uptake A new study shows wide state-level variation in the uptake of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine. The study, which analyzed data from the 2023 National Immunization Survey-Teen (NIS-Teen), found that states in the Northeast census region had significantly higher odds of HPV vaccine uptake, while states in the South had significantly lower odds. But even within regions, there was wide variability. In the Northeast, for example, adolescents aged 13 to 17 in states like Massachusetts and Rhode Island were two to three times more likely than the reference state (Alabama) to receive at least one dose of the HPV vaccine. But teens in New Jersey had 52% lower odds of receiving the vaccine. And while most of the South underperformed, teens in Virginia were 75% more likely to get the vaccine.“The coexistence of high and low HPV vaccination rates within regions underscores the need for further research to understand the underlying factors driving these disparities,” the study authors wrote. The benefits of HPV vaccines have become abundantly clear since the first licensed vaccine, Gardasil, was approved in 2006. According to a new evidence review conducted by the Vaccine Integrity Project, an initiative of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (publisher of CIDRAP News), HPV vaccines have reduced the risk of cervical cancer by 80% in women vaccinated by age 16 and by 66% in those vaccinated after 16. The review also found no association with severe side effects. HPV is the most common sexually transmitted infection globally, and it’s the primary cause of cervical cancer and cancers of the vagina, vulva, penis, anus, and oropharynx (middle part of the throat). At least 79 million Americans are infected with at least one type of HPV. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2006 recommended the HPV vaccine for girls aged 11 to 12 and extended that recommendation to boys in 2011. But uptake in the United States has been lower than what public health officials would like to see. According to a previous analysis of the 2023 NIS-Teen survey by CDC researchers, only 61.4% US teens aged 13 to 17 were up to date with the full schedule of the HPV vaccine, below the 80% national target set by the Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees the CDC.Uptake in the South has long been lower than in other parts of the country. In the new analysis, published earlier this week in JAMA Pediatrics, researchers wanted to get a better understanding of state-level uptake. To assess the probability of HPV vaccine uptake across states, they analyzed 2023 NIS-Teen responses from the parents of 16,057 adolescents.After adjusting for age, sex, race and ethnicity, insurance status, and household poverty level, they found that states in the Northeast consistently had the highest odds of HPV vaccine uptake, including Rhode Island (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.05), Massachusetts (OR, 2.19), and New Hampshire (OR, 1.72). States in the South—including Mississippi (OR, 0.41), Georgia (OR, 0.45), and Oklahoma (OR, 0.46)—consistently had the lowest. States in the Midwest and West were generally better performers compared with the reference, though Nevada (OR, 0.60), Idaho (OR, 0.66), and Alaska (OR, 0.68) were outliers. The authors said the existence of low-performing states within regions with high uptake, and vice-versa, underscores “the limitations of regional analyses alone.”
Hantavirus outbreak grows to 11 cases, 9 confirmed - A Spanish passenger on the MV Hondius cruise ship who was in quarantine at a military hospital in Madrid is now confirmed to have hantavirus, raising the outbreak total to 11 cases, nine of which have been lab-confirmed. The death toll remains at three. Speaking in Madrid today, World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said, “There is no sign that we are seeing the start of a larger outbreak. But of course the situation could change, and given the long incubation period of the virus, it’s possible we might see more cases in the coming weeks.”So far no cases have been identified in anyone other than a passenger on the Dutch cruise ship.Hantavirus symptoms can appear up to 42 days after exposure. Tedros cautioned he would expect more cases in the coming days because of the long incubation period.In other updates, a French woman who was on the ship and fell ill while flying to Paris is in stable condition in an intensive care unit. And 12 Dutch hospital staff are in quarantine after incorrectly handling the bodily fluids of a hantavirus patient.Argentinian officials announced today that, to track the virus, they will be sending a team to a landfill and other locations a Dutch couple visited. Patient zero has been identified as a Dutch man who was an avid birdwatcher. He visited the landfill before boarding the ship. He died from hantavirus infection, as did his wife.
More hantavirus cases emerge as passengers debark cruise ship | CIDRAP -Yesterday, passengers on the MV Hondius Dutch cruise ship left a port in Spain and returned to their home countries, where national teams will isolate and monitor them in the coming days for signs of hantavirus, a rodent-spread disease that has killed three and infected at least 10 passengers (eight confirmed, two probable) en route from Argentina to Europe. Among those who debarked yesterday are 18 Americans, one of whom has tested positive for the virus. Sixteen Americans, including the asymptomatic patient, are being held at the National Quarantine Unit, located on the campus of the University of Nebraska Medical Center. Two other American passengers, including one who is showing symptoms of hantavirus, are being held at Emory University in Atlanta.Yesterday, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., said, “Protecting the health and safety of Americans remains our highest priority, and we have deployed the nation’s leading medical and public health resources in this effort.”Over the weekend, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also issued a Health Alert Network advisory on hantavirus. “In the Americas, hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS), a severe and potentially deadly disease that affects the lungs. HPS can be life-threatening. Among patients who have severe respiratory symptoms, the case fatality rate has been estimated at approximately 38%,” the CDC said. Despite being a serious and deadly virus, US officials over the weekend worked to calm fears that this was the start of another pandemic.“The key message I want to send to your audience is that this is not COVID, this is not going to have—lead to the [that] kind of outbreak,” said CDC Acting Director Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, on CNN. “I can assure you that the CDC has been absolutely on top of this outbreak.” Experts caution that more cases could follow given the long incubation period of the virus. Symptoms of HPS can appear up to 42 days after exposure.Yesterday, French authorities confirmed that a woman who had been on the ship and developed symptoms during her flight home to Paris has been confirmed to have hantavirus.
American passengers from hantavirus-hit cruise ship arrive back in the U.S. -- The 18 Americans who were aboard the hantavirus-stricken cruise ship Hondius arrived back in the U.S. on Monday, and two of them are in biocontainment units in Omaha, Nebraska, and Atlanta. Those two Americans traveled in the plane’s biocontainment units “out of an abundance of caution,” the Department of Health and Human Services said in a statement. Most of the Americans were taken to a facility in Nebraska, but two, a passenger on the ship and a close contact, were taken to Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, officials said. Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and at Emory said Monday that the system was working as intended. “We have been preparing for years for viruses such as Andes viruses,” said Dr. Aneesh Mehta, chief of infectious disease services at Emory University Hospital. Since the ship departed Argentina on April 1, there have been six confirmed cases of hantavirus and two suspected cases. Three people have died. The luxury cruise ship arrived early Sunday at the island of Tenerife, the largest of Spain’s Canary Islands off West Africa, where passengers started repatriating to their home countries. Passengers received health screenings upon arrival in Spain, the country’s Health Ministry said in a statement. A little more than two dozen crew members remained on board Monday to continue to the Netherlands. “Let me be crystal clear: the risk of hantavirus to the general public remains very, very low. The Andes variant of this virus does not spread easily, and it requires prolonged close contact with someone who is already symptomatic,” said Dr. Brian Christine, DHS’ assistant secretary for health. U.S. health officials said 16 of the Americans would be treated at the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response Regional Emerging Special Pathogen Treatment Center at the University of Nebraska Medical Center/Nebraska Medicine (UNMC) in Omaha. The two other passengers were taken to Emory University’s Serious Communicable Diseases unit in Atlanta, with one receiving care in the biocontainment unit for mild symptoms. The other passenger is the person’s significant other and is being monitored because they were in close contact with the symptomatic person, Emory University said.
Hantavirus outbreak: Who is most at risk of catching the deadly virus? – While hantavirus respiratory infections may still be rare in the U.S., they can be incredibly deadly. The virus, which has been around for hundreds of years, received renewed attention last year when it was blamed for the death of Betsy Arakawa, the wife of actor Gene Hackman. In recent weeks, it’s caused even more concern following an outbreak among passengers and crew on a cruise ship. The strain of hantavirus involved in the recent outbreak on the MV Hondius ship is called Andes virus. It can cause HPS, or hantavirus pulmonary syndrome. About 38% of people who develop respiratory symptoms die, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hantaviruses don’t typically spread person to person, but it appears the Andes virus strain can. It’s more typical for the virus to spread through rodents, most commonly through the droppings, urine and saliva of rats and mice. It can also spread through scratches and bites, according to the CDC. The most common type of rodent to carry the virus in the U.S. is the deer mouse. Because rodents are the most common vector, people who come into frequent contact with them are at highest risk of catching a hantavirus. People may be exposed when cleaning enclosed spaces with little ventilation, like cabins or sheds, or when otherwise exploring areas with mouse droppings. However, once someone is infected with the Andes virus strain and starts developing symptoms, they may be contagious. Scientists suspect the virus could be transmitted through small liquid particles that blow out of an infected person when they talk, cough or sneeze. “To be able to officially spread it, you’ve got to have pretty close contact for a prolonged period of time to be able to spread,” said Dr. Donald Dumford, an infectious disease doctor at Cleveland Clinic. “It’s a little bit easier in an enclosed place like a cruise ship, but really it’s got to be close contact to be able to have that spread.” In addition to prolonged, close contact, the Andes virus strain could also spread by kissing, sharing utensils or straws, or handling contaminated bedding, according to the CDC. The World Health Organization and other public health officials caution against comparisons to the COVID-19 pandemic, in which the virus spread more easily through respiratory droplets. “This is not the next COVID, but it is a serious infectious disease,” said Maria Van Kerkhove, director of epidemic and pandemic preparedness at the World Health Organization. “Most people will never be exposed to this.”
CDC: Risk to general public from hantavirus is low -Today, officials from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said 100 personnel from the agency are actively working on monitoring passengers from the MV Hondius for hantavirus and are confident in the United States’ ability to control any further spread of the deadly rodent virus.David Fitter, MD, incident manager for CDC’s hantavirus response, and Brendan Jackson, MD, MPH, CDC team lead in Nebraska, where most of the Americans who were aboard the ship are being monitored, emphasized in a press conference that, unlike COVID-19, hantavirus is a virus that has been studied for decades.“Transmission from person to person is rare,” said Fitter. “I want to emphasize the risk to the general public is low.” Despite assurances, several experts are warning that person-to-person transmission may not be as rare as previously thought, often citing a 2018 outbreak of hantavirus at a birthday party, also in Argentina. That event led to 34 confirmed infections and 11 deaths, all traced to the index patient, who contracted the virus after exposure to rodents.Fitter and Jackson gave few details about the Americans who were aboard the ship, only confirming that they are encouraging those housed in a Nebraska containment center to stay there for 42 days, with day 1 being May 11, the day they disembarked.Fitter also addressed the American who was reported to have had a “mildly positive” hantavirus test earlier this week. He clarified that the test was taken on board and was inclusive. That passenger has identified himself as Stephen Kornfeld, MD, of Oregon, who said he treated sick passengers on the ship. Kornfeld, who is at the Nebraska biocontainment center, reports that he feels “wonderful” and remains without any symptoms of the virus. The CDC officials also confirmed that the two Americans being monitored at Emory University have also tested negative for the virus.Neither Fitter nor Jackson would say whether passengers who are testing negative for the virus could, at some point in the next 42 days, quarantine at home.In other news, the French passenger being treated at a Paris hospital in intensive care worsened overnight and is now on an artificial lung machine.Finally today, the Illinois Department of Public Health said it is investigating a potential hantavirus case in an Illinois resident not linked to the cruise ship. Instead, the person is believed to have contracted the virus while cleaning a home where rodent droppings were present. “The resident lives in Winnebago County, has not travelled internationally, and has not come in contact with individuals associated with the MV Hondius outbreak. They are suspected to have acquired a North American strain of the virus while cleaning a home where rodent droppings were present,” the department said.
Hantavirus outbreak reduced to 10 cases as ship passengers return to home countries The World Health Organization (WHO) today reduced the number of reported hantavirus cases from the Dutch cruise ship MV Hondius from 11 to 10. WHO officials said at a press briefing this morning that the 11 cases reported in a disease outbreak update on May 13 included one inconclusive test in a passenger from the United States. But the agency learned yesterday that the patient has tested negative. Eight cases have been confirmed, and two are probable. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, also said that more than 120 passengers who disembarked from the ship in Tenerife are being monitored by public health officials, either in their home countries or while in transit. Twenty-seven crew members remain on board the ship and are expected to arrive in the Netherlands on Monday. Tedros said that, because of the long incubation period for hantavirus (up to six weeks), more cases may be reported in the coming days. “This does not mean the outbreak is expanding. It shows that the control measures are working, that laboratory testing is ongoing, and that people are being cared for with support from their governments,” he said. In a separate press briefing, officials from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reiterated that none of the 41 Americans under monitoring, including the 18 passengers who are being quarantined in biocontainment units at the National Quarantine Unit in Omaha, Nebraska, and Emory University Hospital in Atlanta, have tested positive for the Andes strain of hantavirus.
US measles total nears 1,900, with 51 new cases | CIDRAP -The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) today confirmed 51 new measles cases in a nationwide outbreak that has now reached 1,893 infections. All but nine cases are locally acquired, with the rest related to international travel.The agency reported two new outbreaks, for a total of 27. Last year the nation saw 48 outbreaks and 2,288 cases for the entire year. The United States could top that total in the coming months.Of this year’s cases, 21% involve children younger than 5 years, and 76% involve kids and young adults up to 19 years. Among all 2026 patients, 92% have been unvaccinated or have an unknown vaccine status. Six percent of patients this year have been hospitalized, compared with 11% last year.According to the CDC measles map, South Carolina has recorded the most cases so far this year, at 669, though its outbreak is now over. Utah is next, with 456 cases—though the Utah health department lists 466. Texas has 182 cases, and Florida 135.North Dakota has five new cases in the past few weeks (38 total). Washington state officials have reported seven new cases, bringing the state’s total to 44.
Salmonella outbreaks linked to backyard poultry send 54 to the hospital -- The number of people sickened by three multistate outbreaks of the Salmonella bacterium has rocketed to 184. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported yesterday there are 150 new cases since April 23, though the true number of sick people is likely higher.At least 54 people have been hospitalized and one person died in Washington state, according to the CDC. Over a quarter of people sickened in this outbreak are children under 5 years old, with a median age of 31 years.The cases appear linked to five hatcheries that supply birds to retailers and involve three strains: Salmonella Saintpaul, Salmonella Mbandaka, and Salmonella Enteritidis. It's fairly common to have several Salmonella outbreaks involving backyard flocks at the same time, said Brian Ronholm, MA, director of food policy for Consumer Reports. "Multiple strains can exist in the chicken's gut and all those chicks can contaminate the store where they are sold and pass it on to other chicks at the store," he said.The outbreak caused by Salmonella Saintpaul is the largest, involving 133 people, or 72% of those sickened in the outbreaks. The CDC says patients infected with this strain have, "more frequently reported contact with ducklings or ducks, specifically Pekin ducks, versus other outbreaks, where most patients reported contact with chicks and chickens."Salmonella infections linked to backyard poultry are fairly common. One outbreak that lasted from late December 2024 to early September 2025 involved multiple strains that infected at least 559 people, two of whom died. Birds that appear healthy can carry Salmonella. To avoid illness, people with backyard flocks should collect eggs often, cook the eggs until both the yolk and white are firm, and wash their hands after handling birds or eggs. People should not snuggle or kiss their poultry. Most cases of Salmonella illness last four to seven days and resolve without treatment. Symptoms include cramping, nausea, fever, chills, and headache. The CDC says reasons people should see a doctor include dehydration, bloody stool, or if they have both diarrhea and a fever higher than 102°F.
Quick takes: Pandemic flu preparedness, multiple-pathogen dashboard, more measles in Utah | CIDRAP
- Yesterday the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) announced an agreement with CSL Seqirus aimed at securing a reserved share of pandemic influenza vaccine production for PAHO member states in Latin America and the Caribbean in the case of a future influenza pandemic. “This agreement is a direct response to the hard lessons of COVID-19 and a major step forward in strengthening health security and pandemic preparedness across the Americas,” said PAHO Director Jarbas Barbosa, MD, MPH, PhD, in a press release. Barbosa said the deal will help put Latin and Caribbean countries on more equal footing to access future vaccines.
- ARUP Laboratories announced today the launch of its National Infectious Disease Test Positivity Trends Dashboard, the first tool developed by a US reference laboratory to track laboratory test-positivity trends for multiple pathogens. The dashboard is based on deidentified test results. According to a statement from the company, the dashboard will help clinical laboratories, medical directors, and clinicians detect unusual patterns, seasonal shifts, and emerging infectious disease activity earlier. Maps and charts will be refreshed weekly, and the dashboard features pathogen-specific pages.
- Utah has more measles cases in an outbreak that has simmered in the state for more than nine months. There are now 466 cases recorded this year, and 663 in the 2025-26 outbreak. Officials have confirmed 29 cases in the past three weeks. The Southwest health district has recorded the most cases, with 263 (56% of all infections).
Candidemia cases are rising, becoming deadlier, study finds - Candidemia incidence and associated 30-day mortality have risen in the United States since 2015, according to a study published yesterday in Clinical Infectious Diseases. For the study, a team led by researchers with Houston Methodist Hospital examined data from a nationwide database of electronic health records to analyze trends in candidemia incidence from 2015 through 2014. Candidemia is a severe and life-threatening bloodstream infection caused by species of Candida yeast. Most often found in medically vulnerable and chronically ill patients, Candida species cause an estimated 23,000 bloodstream infections every year in the United States, with mortality rates ranging from 25% to 40%. The study authors note that the incidence of candidemia and candidemia-related mortality increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, when severely ill, intubated patients spent more time in hospitals. They wanted to see whether those trends have persisted and to assess changes in causative species. A total of 29,454 candidemia cases were identified among 27,926 patients (mean age, 58.9 years; 55.6% male) across 141 healthcare systems. The overall incidence was 50.5 cases per 100,000 hospital admissions, rising from 42.3 in 2015 to 51.2 in 2024. Overall 30-day mortality was 31.5%, increasing from 24.7% to 37.6% in 2021, then declining to 31.8%. The most common species was Candida albicans, accounting for 40% of candidemia cases over the study period. The proportion of infections caused by Candida auris, a multidrug-resistant yeast first identified in a US patient in 2016, rose to 4.7% by 2024. An analysis of C auris patients found they were more likely to be Black, have renal failure, and have a higher Social Vulnerability Index than patients with candidemia caused by other species. The authors say the increase in candidemia-related mortality occurred in parallel with a shift toward intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired cases and a trend toward older patients that began during COVID and has persisted, “despite advances in prevention, diagnostics, and therapy.” “Overall, these data suggest that candidemia is increasingly affecting medically vulnerable patients at high risk of mortality, such as the critically ill and elderly, and that important healthcare disparities exist with respect to C. auris,” they concluded.
Ebola outbreak confirmed in Uganda, health officials say - Uganda confirmed an outbreak of the highly contagious Ebola virus on Friday, the health ministry announced, noting that it involves the Bundibugyo strain, News.Az reports, citing Reuters. The ministry said the case was an imported infection from the Democratic Republic of Congo. The patient died in intensive care on May 14 after developing hemorrhagic symptoms.
New Ebola outbreak hits Democratic Republic of Congo - Health officials in Africa are monitoring an Ebola outbreak in a remote region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Officials with the Africa Centers for Disease Control (Africa CDC) say 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths have been reported in the Mongwalu and Rwampara health zones of DRC’s Ituri province, with suspected cases also reported in Bunia. Preliminary lab results from the Institut National de Recherche Biomédicale (INRB) have detected Ebola in 13 of 20 samples, including four of the reported deaths. The agency said the INRB results suggest a non-Zaire ebolavirus, which has been the leading cause of Ebola outbreaks over the past 20 years. A 2018-2020 outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus in DRC resulted in more than 3,400 reported cases. According to reporting by Reuters, the outbreak involves the Bundibugyo strain.Ituri province is in the eastern part of DRC, bordering Uganda and South Sudan, and more than 620 miles from the capital of Kinshasa. Africa CDC officials say they’re concerned about the potential for further spread because of dense urban populations in Rwampara and Bunia, population movement related to mining activity in Mongwalu, and refugee movement caused by ongoing conflicts in the region. “Given the high population movement between affected areas and neighbouring countries, rapid regional coordination is essential,” Africa CDC Director-General Jean Kaseya, MD, MPH, said in a press release. “We are working with DRC, Uganda, South Sudan, and partners to strengthen surveillance, preparedness, and response, and to help contain the outbreak as quickly as possible.”Ebola is highly contagious and spreads through contact with the bodily fluids of an infected sick or dead person. The virus causes severe disease that starts with fever, aches, and fatigue and progresses to diarrhea, vomiting, and bleeding.
- The World Health Organization (WHO) has noted a fatal H5N6 infection in Chongqing Municipality, China. The patient, a 55-year-old woman, died after suffering severe pneumonia on May 3. According to the WHO, “She had purchased, slaughtered, and consumed poultry. Samples collected from a cutting board tested positive for influenza A (H5).” The first human H5N6 case was recorded in the region in 2014. Since then, 93 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 58 deaths, have been reported to WHO in the Western Pacific Region.
- The Caribbean Princess cruise ship is now docked at Port Canaveral, Florida, after suffering a norovirus outbreak onboard. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 145 of 3,116 passengers were sickened onboard, as were 15 crew members. The most prominent symptoms were diarrhea and vomiting.
- Rain rot rash, or dermatophilosis, is appearing on men who have sex with men in Europe. Though the skin disease is typically seen only in horses and other livestock, men presenting with the rash have appeared in France, Spain, and Germany in recent months, with no history of contact with animals. Last week in Emerging Infectious Diseases, authors detailed a closer examination of nine men in Barcelona diagnosed with dermatophilosis between December 2025 and March. Lesions were commonly located in sites exposed during sexual contact, the authors said, and eight of nine patients developed lesions shortly after visiting a sauna. "All cases in this series were mild and resolved easily without complications,” the authors said.
1 in 4 US kids with travel-acquired malaria face delayed diagnosis, raising risk of severe disease Delayed diagnosis of travel-acquired malaria was common among children treated at US hospitals and was linked to a higher risk of severe disease, according to a new study published late last week in Pediatrics. A team led by researchers at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia (CHOP) reviewed 171 pediatric malaria cases across nine US hospitals from 2016 through 2023. Approximately one-third of children developed severe malaria, though no deaths occurred. Roughly one in four (26%) of pediatric patients had a previous in-person or telephone healthcare encounter in which malaria was not considered or testing was not performed. Among those with a delayed diagnosis, 51% went on to develop severe malaria. Most children in the study (73%) had traveled to West Africa, often to visit friends and relatives. “Health care clinicians should have a high level of suspicion for malaria infection in patients who have recently traveled to malaria-endemic regions,” the authors write. Ninety percent of pediatric patients presented with fever, and 66% reported at least one gastrointestinal symptom, including vomiting, abdominal pain, and diarrhea. Other symptoms included chills, cough, headache, fatigue, and muscle aches. Some children did not have a fever when they sought care, including several who were tested only because a travel companion had been diagnosed as having malaria. For children with a delayed diagnosis, the median time to diagnosis was three days, with delayed diagnoses occurring at similar rates across the nine hospital systems. Before receiving the correct diagnosis, pediatric patients were incorrectly diagnosed with viral illness, strep throat, gastroenteritis, or sinusitis. “It’s important to note that you can't tell who's got malaria just by symptoms,” said senior study author Audrey R. Odom-John, MD, PhD, chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at CHOP, said in a news release. “Children who come in and are suspected of having malaria essentially have fever, but they can also present with a wide range of symptoms,” she added. They can have cough, they can have tummy symptoms, they can have headache, they can have almost anything. That’s why rapid and precise testing is necessary to confirm these cases.” Child travelers are more likely than adults to develop severe malaria, and, in this study, the rate of pediatric patients who met the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria for severe malaria (32%) was similar to rates seen in previous research. Children with severe malaria had longer hospital stays and were more likely to require blood transfusions and antibiotic treatment than those with uncomplicated cases. The findings also highlighted gaps in malaria prevention. Fewer than half of US-based travelers (46%) sought or received pretravel counseling, and among those prescribed antimalarial prophylaxis, only 11% reported taking it as directed. Barriers to prevention included difficulty obtaining enough medication for long trips and stopping prophylaxis too early after leaving endemic regions. Preventive medicines must be taken for seven to 28 days after returning from an endemic region, and prior authorization from insurance is often required to get enough medicine for longer trips. The findings underscore the ongoing risks malaria poses to children traveling abroad and the importance of recognizing infections quickly. “This work highlights the need for continued effort in the prevention of travel-acquired malaria and the importance of prompt diagnosis in pediatric patients,” write the authors.
US officials note a handful of new avian flu outbreaks at poultry facilities --Highly pathogenic avian flu has affected a handful of commercial poultry operations recently, per the latest updates from the US Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS). In the past 30 days, the virus has been detected among eight commercial and six backyard flocks, affecting a total of 250,000 birds.The largest, most recent confirmation comes from Elkhart, Indiana, where 29,800 birds at a commercial duck meat facility were hit with the H5N1 strain. Becker, Minnesota, reported an outbreak at a commercial breeder operation affecting 19,200 birds. LaGrange County, Indiana, has had three recent outbreaks. The county has been an avian flu hotspot in the past six months. Finally Lee County, Florida, reported a small backyard outbreak affecting 10 birds.
Survey: A third of US backyard flock owners don’t know signs, symptoms of avian flu While most respondents to a survey of US backyard flock owners had heard of avian influenza, about one third didn’t know the signs or symptoms of infection in birds or people, highlighting the need for risk messaging and educational resources. The online survey was conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in collaboration with state and agricultural officials from July to December 2025. The aim was to learn more about flock owners and their knowledge, attitudes, and practices surrounding the H5 strain of avian flu that has affected millions of US poultry. Of 638 respondents, about half had an advanced degree. Since 2024, three avian flu cases have been confirmed in people in the United States who own backyard birds, the authors noted. The findings were published yesterday in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. In total, 69% of respondents kept small flocks of mainly chickens, 71% indicated that they had no veterinarian to consult about their flock, and 54% said that wild birds could access their flock or its food or water. Respondents were generally experienced flock owners, with 29% having owned their flocks for at least 10 years, and 48% for three to 10 years. Education of backyard flock owners by health partners regarding signs and symptoms of avian influenza can help flock owners keep their flocks, themselves, and their families healthy. Although 94% of owners were aware of avian flu, one third didn’t know the signs or symptoms in birds or people. About 90% knew the recommended precautions to take when handling sick or dead birds and said they were willing to use some types of personal protective equipment (PPE). A higher level of knowledge about avian flu was tied to increased intent to use PPE. In total, 58% of respondents said that at least one person in their household was at increased risk for flu complications because of age, pregnancy, or underlying conditions. “Education of backyard flock owners by health partners regarding signs and symptoms of avian influenza can help flock owners keep their flocks, themselves, and their families healthy,” the researchers wrote.
CWD digest: Wyoming’s National Elk Refuge reports first case --An adult cow elk has tested positive for chronic wasting disease (CWD) in Wyoming Elk Hunt Area 77 in the National Elk Refuge, marking the refuge’s first detection, the Wyoming Game and Fish Department and the US Fish and Wildlife Service announced this week.The National Elk Refuge is located in the western part of the state between the Teton Mountain Range and the Gros Ventre Wilderness in Jackson Hole. The most recent CWD detection in this herd (Jackson Elk Herd) was in Grand Teton National Park in 2020. “Moving forward, National Elk Refuge staff will increase monitoring and surveillance of elk and bison herds for CWD, re-evaluate some existing programs and implement additional bio-security protocols to keep people and wildlife safe,” the release said. “Any changes will be shared with the public.”CWD is a fatal neurodegenerative disease that affects cervids such as deer, elk, and moose. Caused by infectious misfolded proteins called prions, CWD spreads from cervid to cervid through contact with infected saliva, urine, and feces; through environmental contamination; and from infected does to offspring during pregnancy.The disease is not known to affect people, but health agencies recommend against consuming the meat of a sick or infected cervid and advise having cervids harvested in CWD-endemic areas tested before eating the meat.
Bee magnetism appears far more widespread than expected across 120 species - There are more than 20,000 different bee species in the world. If honeybees were magnetic, Gilbert and Murray wondered about other bees. After reviewing the literature, they learned that the magnetism of honeybees was discovered in 1977. Since that time, only four other bee species had been identified as being able to sense magnetic fields. Gilbert, Murray, and Laura Russo, an assistant professor in ecology and evolutionary biology at UT who performs research on native bee species, set out to provide a more definitive cataloging of bee magnetism. Over the last six years, they have tested more than 120 different species of bees and found that nearly 90% are magnetic. Their research was published this month in Science Advances. "It just was so unexpected. There had been some work on it, but we decided to cast a wider net out of curiosity and wonder," said Murray, whose research focuses on insect sensory behavior, such as how chemicals released by plants mediate key ecological relationships with insects and fungi. "What has been the most surprising thing is there are so many and so much variety. We just weren't expecting that." Magnetoreception is the innate capacity of many animals to sense and use Earth's magnetic field. It is often used for navigation, much like how humans use a compass or a map. While many animals use this for long-range migration, the honeybee uses it to communicate directions to foraging sites to other bees. Female honeybees go out to collect pollen, bring it back to the hive, and then share the location with their peers. The honeybees communicate with each other by doing an interpretive dance so their peers know where the pollen can be found. The original 1977 observation was that if a magnet was placed near the honeybee's nest, the bee would change direction of her dance depending on the placement of the magnet. However, recent experiments have cast doubt on this theory, making the actual use of magnetism more mysterious."The idea was that the bee aligns its dance with the magnetic field, and then does its dance, and then everybody watching it can leave and use their magnetic sense to guide them to find the flowers," Gilbert said. "It's kind of like giving a pointer. That's why they said these bees are magnetoreceptive. But none of the other four species of bees that had been studied before we started our research have a dance, so what do they use it for?"To study the bees, the group collected species from across the world. Previous papers inferred a connection between magnetoreception and social behavior because of the honeybee's dance—although no one followed up by testing for magnetism in solitary bees. The UT team expanded the plan; from mapping how prevalent bee magnetism is to seeking correlations with the bee's natural history and behavior. Russo provided her expertise on bee diversity and social behavior, and contributed bees from her own extensive collection to test. To fill out their sampling, the team requested bee species from other collections, including York University in Canada and The Smithsonian. The priceless collections were delivered in everything from leather-bound cases to generic pizza boxes. "We first sampled social and solitary members of the bee family Apidae, which included all previous species that had been reported ferromagnetic," Russo said. "We originally thought only the social species would be magnetic, but ferromagnetism was well-represented in the solitary species as well. Then, we had to broaden the scope of our hypotheses." In their research, Russo, Gilbert, and Murray found the strength of the magnetic signal wasn't the same for every bee. Bigger bees and bees that are more social tended to have a stronger magnetic signal.The research group began exploring whether natural history, including a bee's sex, sociality, habitat, geography, and nesting habits, explained the presence of ferromagnetism.. They couldn't find one explanatory factor.That led them to move up the evolutionary tree and begin testing wasps to see if the magnetism existed in ancestral insects even before bees evolved. Along with new insects, came new collaborators, with bees and wasps being shipped from the University of Alaska, University of Hawaii, Australian National University, the University of Oldenburg in Germany, and the University of São Paulo in Brazil among other places.In testing nearly 300 species of wasps, they found that 90% are magnetic."Altogether, this suggests that magnetoreception is a sense that goes back further in the evolutionary tree and continues to provide an unknown advantage," Gilbert said. "While the prevailing theory is that insects use vision to navigate, our data suggests that magnetism may also play a crucial role, probably in short-range navigation. But we still don't know for sure why they use magnetic fields and why it seems to have persisted for 150 million years."
Pennsylvania seeks federal aid after April freeze damages specialty crops - YouTube video - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro requested a USDA Secretarial Disaster Designation for all counties after below-freezing temperatures on April 21, 2026, damaged specialty crops across the state. Early estimates place possible economic losses for Pennsylvania’s specialty-crop industry at USD 150 million to USD 200 million. Shapiro sent the request to USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on May 8, saying the freeze damaged numerous crops after several weeks of warm early-spring weather had advanced blossoms on fruit and ornamental trees. Some farms recorded temperatures about -7 to -5°C (low 20s°F), while affected crops included peaches, cherries, apricots, pears, strawberries, grapes, many apple varieties, Christmas trees, landscape crops and nursery crops. Reports submitted by growers to the Pennsylvania Department of Agriculture put losses above the 30% disaster trigger, with some growers anticipating a complete loss. The Governor’s Office said the administration had engaged with more than 200 growers and agricultural stakeholders and was working with Penn State Extension to collect early industry assessments. Shapiro and Pennsylvania Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding visited Cherry Hill Orchards in Lancaster County on May 8, where the Governor’s Office said apple and peach crops suffered near-total yield losses after overnight temperatures dropped as low as -7°C (19°F) in parts of Pennsylvania. Field reports from the wider Mid-Atlantic showed similar crop vulnerability during the same freeze period. AccuWeather reported that Butler’s Orchard in Germantown, Maryland, recorded temperatures near -4°C (25°F), with farm manager Ben Butler estimating losses of about 60% of apple flowers and early fruit, about 40% of cherries, and about 80% of blackberries. Growers used irrigation, row covers, controlled flames, and helicopters to protect crops during the freeze.
U.S. Wheat Crop Forecast To Hit Half-Century Low As Drought Hits Breadbasket -- Chicago wheat futures surged on Tuesday, hitting two-year highs after the USDA's latest WASDE report signaled a much tighter U.S. supply outlook than traders had anticipated. Production stress across America's breadbasket is now converging with a megadrought and mounting fertilizer constraints, adding upward pressure on prices at a time when global food prices are rising. The USDA forecast 2026/27 U.S. all-wheat production at 1.56 billion bushels, sharply below Wall Street expectations of around 1.74 billion, marking the smallest harvest since 1972. After the report on Tuesday, Chicago wheat futures jumped to their highest level since May 2024. Saxo commodities head Ole Hansen penned a note on Wednesday, highlighting just how dire the report is for wheat production:
- USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat harvest since 1972, triggering sharp gains in both Chicago and Kansas wheat futures.
- Hard red winter wheat production was estimated at the lowest level since 1957 following drought damage across the southern Plains.
- The Bloomberg Grains Index has gained 17% YTD, supported by strong advances in soybean oil, wheat, and related biofuel-linked markets.
- Managed money traders have returned aggressively to agriculture, although wheat positioning remains mixed due to continued contango focus.
Let's not forget America's breadbasket, plagued by drought, as the Middle East energy shock has disrupted the fertilizer trade and may impact harvests later this year. Global food prices are rising.
Designer biochar pellets performance weak for managing phosphorus in agricultural fields -Tile drainage is common in U.S. Midwest agricultural fields, helping to remove excess water and aerate the soil. While the practice enhances crop productivity, it can cause phosphorus to leak into nearby waterways, where it contributes to harmful algal blooms. Directing tile-drain runoff through a structure filled with biochar—a form of charcoal produced from organic waste—provides a potential remedy for phosphorus pollution, but the method is novel and not fully explored. In a new study, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign researchers examined the capacity of specially designed biochar pellets to absorb and release phosphorus under real-world conditions, finding they don't perform as well as they do in laboratory settings. The study is published in the journal Water Environment Research."The idea was to find out if we can use designer biochar pellets to capture phosphorus from tile drains and later add the pellets to the field as a phosphorus nutrient amendment that reduces subsequent phosphate application," The designer biochar pellets were made by mixing sawdust with bentonite clay and lime sludge, then heating and drying them to create a dense, carbon-rich material with a large surface area.First, the pellets were placed at the outlet of a tile drain system in a field in Central Illinois for about a year. Then they were removed and dried for lab testing. The researchers found that when the designer biochar pellets were exposed to a pure solution prepared in the lab, they absorbed the phosphorus as expected. But when the pellets were exposed to effluents from cow manure and other agricultural wastewater, they absorbed and released phosphorus in unpredictable ways.Wastewater effluents, such as cow manure and other agricultural effluents, contain competing ions and other chemical elements and are rich in diverse microorganisms. This results in a more complex dynamic than pure phosphate solution, thereby reducing the performance of the designer biochar pellets in real-world applications."Agricultural effluents contain residues from pesticides, herbicides, metals, and biological components, and they are very reactive. The field is exposed to rain and other weather events, and the soil has a very complex composition. Our findings show that it is important to conduct experiments in a realistic setting that more closely mimics real-world conditions," The researchers measured pH, mineral salts, phosphorus, and dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the effluent.Guzman noted that pH is particularly important in regulating sorption and desorption because it influences surface charge, ion concentrations, and mineral reactivity. The pH level affects how the biochar reacts, but the pellets can also affect pH and increase alkalinity, so it's a dynamic process.For the second part of the experiment, both new and used (spent) pellets were added to a cornfield research site in Central Illinois. The goal was to evaluate the capacity of the new pellets to absorb phosphorus and the spent pellets to release it into the soil. Again, the researchers found that pH dynamics were an important factor, and higher pH levels were associated with greater phosphate removal from soil solution, likely driven by phosphorus precipitation."Other studies have shown that biochar is efficient for removing nutrients in the field. But most of these studies are based on laboratory experiments that use a pure phosphate solution. When you use it in a real-world experiment, you have to consider the soil conditions. You also need to test existing phosphorus levels before applying the pellets,"
Trump admin jettisons public lands rule, eases grazing regulations - The Trump administration advanced major changes Monday to how the Bureau of Land Management will handle the use of millions of acres of land, burying an effort to elevate conservation as a use on par with oil and gas drilling, mining, and recreation. The Interior Department said it will eliminate a Biden administration environmental policy that sought to make conservation a formal use of public lands, while at the same time unveiling new regulations to ease access to livestock grazing. The dual updates, laid out in a pair of advanced Federal Register notices, mark a tectonic shift in the agency’s focus, ahead of the expected confirmation this week of President Donald Trump’s nominee to head BLM, former New Mexico GOP Rep. Steve Pearce. Neither the Interior Department nor BLM immediately responded to a request for comment.Over the last year, the Trump administration has sought to eliminate programs or regulations that address the impacts of climate change, and advance what Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called his agency’s path that has “unlocked America’s Balance Sheet.” In a Federal Register notice to be published Tuesday, BLM announced it will formally strike down the Conservation and Landscape Health Rule. Often called “the public lands rule,” the policy gave BLM authority to consider conservation and habitat health alongside other aspects of its multiple-use mission, such as oil and gas development, grazing, and recreation.The rule had also allowed for entities to lease parcels of public land specifically for the purpose of landscape restoration.In its Federal Register notice, BLM said rescinding the rule “restores balance to federal land management under the principles of multiple use and sustained yield by prioritizing access, empowering local decision-making, and aligning the BLM’s implementing regulations with statutory requirements and national energy policy.”Industry groups have cheered the rollback of the Biden-era rule since Burgum announced plans to revoke it in September. A White House review of the plan to rescind the rule wrapped up last month. Anne Bradbury, CEO of the American Exploration and Production Council, an oil industry group, called the Biden-era rule “reckless agency overreach” in a statement.“AXPC applauds Secretary Burgum for taking a crucial step to secure energy affordability by restoring balanced management of federal lands, including for responsible oil and natural gas development as Congress intended,” Bradbury said.Burgum has repeatedly decried government policies that limit mining, grazing, drilling and timber harvesting.The Wilderness Society, which like other environmental groups opposes the Trump administration’s moves, called the proposal “a bid to make industrial applications like drilling and mining the default and dominant use of our nation’s public lands forever.”In a statement, Alison Flint, the group’s acting vice president for federal policy, said, “Congress directed the BLM to manage public lands in a way that balances uses like outdoor recreation with needs as varied as grazing, energy development and conservation of wildlife habitat.”The new proposal, Flint said, “flouts both the agency’s legal mandate and the overwhelming wishes of the American people for public lands to be managed in a balanced and sustainable way that conserves special places for future generations.”
Wildfire smoke's hidden ozone threat may be adding thousands of US deaths each year -A study that assesses the effects of wildfires over two decades shows that wildfire smoke significantly raises ground-level ozone and contributes to excess deaths from wildfire smoke in the United States each year. The research, led by Minghao Qiu, Ph.D., of Stony Brook University, is published in Science Advances. Previous research about wildfire smoke, its health risks, and impact on excess deaths, has largely overlooked ozone and concentrated more on dangerous particulates emitted from fires. Ozone is invisible, but it is a strong oxidant. When humans are exposed to more ozone it is linked to several health issues such as respiratory and cardiovascular problems, reduced cognitive performance, as well as increased mortality. "As we move further into spring and then summer, wildfires will most likely increase in the United States and all of North America, and scientists should be thinking about the effects of increased ozone from fires in addition particulates emitted into the air," says Qiu, corresponding author, Assistant Professor in the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences (SoMAS), and Core Faculty Member of the Program in Public Health at Stony Brook University. The study is led by Yangmingkai Li, who was a visiting undergraduate researcher in Qiu's group at SoMAS. Qiu says that scientists have primarily focused on wildfire impacts on particulate matter pollution but have not had a systematic understanding on wildfire effects on ozone over the U.S. This study combined nearly two decades of surface ozone measurements (2006 to 2023), meteorological data, and satellite data using machine learning models to quantify the changes in surface ozone concentration during fire episodes across the continental U.S. They also used the satellite-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke plume product to determine smoke days and compare surface ozone measurements across smoke days and non-smoke days while controlling for ambient temperature and ultraviolet radiation. Using the compiled data and machine learning models, the researchers discovered that wildfire smoke raised ground-level ozone and boosts daily ozone by as much as 16% in some U.S. regions—such as the eastern part of the country and Midwest—an amount significant enough to increase illnesses and deaths caused in part by smoke from fires. The team also estimates that wildfire smoke ozone increases excess U.S. deaths per year by more than 2,000.
Airport readings uncover ultrafine particle spikes and oil residue in Zurich study- During takeoff and landing, planes emit ultrafine aerosol particles. Some particles also contain lubricating oil, as shown by measurements made by researchers from the Paul Scherrer Institute PSI in the environs of the Zurich Airport. Low-sulfur fuels could be the solution. PSI researchers conducted air quality measurements in the area surrounding Zurich Airport in the winter of 2022 and the summer of 2024. In these two measurement series, each lasting several weeks, they used special equipment to capture particulate matter in the air approximately 1 kilometer downwind from runway 28, the airport's busiest. They then analyzed the particulate matter in near-real time, that is, immediately after capture, using spectrometers to determine particle size and chemical composition. This approach has the advantage over previous studies of this type—which collect data throughout the day and only measure it later—of revealing the influence of changing wind directions or current aircraft approach patterns. Thus the sources can be mapped more precisely. The findings are published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology. The measurements confirm findings already obtained from several other European airports, such as Amsterdam and Frankfurt: During takeoff and landing, aircraft especially emit ultrafine particles (UFP) with sizes below 100 nanometers from their engines. These are a mixture of solid soot and volatile sulfate particles produced during the combustion of fuel in the turbines and in the subsequent cooling of the exhaust gas. The researchers detected up to 300,000 UFPs per cubic centimeter of air. This is more than 10 times the normal background level at the airport at night when no aircraft are operating. In cities, typical UFP measurements range from about 5,000 to 40,000 particles per cubic centimeter of air, significantly lower than the values measured at the airport. However, urban air contains a larger proportion of the coarser particulate matter categories below 2.5 and below 10 micrometers. "So in terms of particle mass, the particulate matter pollution at the airport is lower than in the city, where it originates mainly from road traffic, heating systems, and industry," says study author Sarah Tinorua from the PSI Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences. "But the number of particles at the airport is significantly higher." This is relevant to human health, since smaller particles, when inhaled, can penetrate more deeply into the fine branches of the lungs. This is therefore a meaningful distinction for airport workers and the nearby residents.
Coral reefs around Hainan are collapsing faster under local damage and warming, but targeted action could reverse losses --A research team led by Hainan University, together with, among others, the National University of Singapore (NUS) and the Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT), investigated a total of 102 reef sites in the waters around Hainan Island over a period of 20 years (2000 to 2020). Their analysis shows an average decline in live coral cover of 40%. The findings are published in the journal Nature Communications. Statistical modeling was used to quantify the impact of various stress factors. The results showed that local human pressures—in particular overfishing, nutrient inputs from agriculture and increasing coastal development—accounted for the majority (73%) of regional variations in coral decline. At the same time, climate change remains a key factor: Rising water temperatures weaken the resilience of the reefs and make them more vulnerable to additional pressures."Our analysis discovered that unsustainable fishing, nitrogen runoff from aqua- and agriculture and urban expansion not only pose additional threats, but are primarily responsible for the collapse of the reefs in this region during the period studied," explains project lead Hongwei Zhao from Hainan University.The study also showed regional differences in the processes of reef degradation:
- East Hainan: Overfishing and rising nutrient inputs from aqua- and agriculture facilitated a transition from coral-dominated to algae-rich systems.
- South Hainan: Urbanization and rapidly growing tourism led to increased sewage inputs, sedimentation and habitat loss.
- Xisha Islands: Outbreaks of the crown-of-thorns starfish, which feeds on stony corals, caused widespread damage.
Integrated management combines measures on land and at sea—global climate protection measures still essentialBased on these findings, the team developed a framework for Integrated Coast Reef Management (ICRM). The approach combines measures on land and at sea and includes quantitative assessments, the identification of stress factors, and tailored strategies. These include adaptive regulation through sustainable fisheries management, the reduction of nutrient runoff from agriculture and aquaculture, the control of crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks, and environmentally friendly coastal planning.The researchers modeled various scenarios using the ICRM approach and were thus able to show that integrated land and marine management could potentially increase living coral cover by two to four times under conditions of ongoing global warming and prevent a collapse in reef calcification—that is, the formation of stable coral skeletons from dissolved calcium carbonate."Local interventions such as reducing nutrient inputs from fertilizers applied in aqua- and agriculture or strengthening sustainable fisheries represent levers that can be implemented in the short term," says ZMT researcher and co-author Tim Jennerjahn. "However, they do not replace the need for global climate protection measures."
Rising storm floods are washing away wader nests—artificial eggs and incubation should only be last resort - Storm-driven sea floods are becoming more frequent as the climate warms, increasingly destroying the nests of threatened wader birds along the Baltic Sea coast. Waders are currently beginning their breeding season. A doctoral dissertation defended in February 2026 at the University of Oulu, Finland, shows that low-lying coastal meadows along the Bothnian Bay have become significantly more vulnerable to flooding, putting ground nesting waders at growing risk. The research found a clear tipping point: When sea level rises about 40 centimeters above average, nest losses increase sharply. Such flood events now occur several times more often than in the 1970s. "In several long-term studies, we followed the breeding success of the ruff and the southern dunlin in the Bothnian Bay region. Our observations show that a single flood event can wipe out many nests at once—in the worst cases, affecting most of a breeding area in one night," says doctoral researcher Hanna Algora. In Finland, the ruff is classified as critically endangered. The southern dunlin is endangered, and breeding pairs are at risk of disappearing from the Bothnian Bay. Species nesting closest to the shoreline are particularly exposed. On the shallow shores of the Bothnian Bay, floodwaters rise far inland from the shoreline. "Increased flooding is linked to climate change and affects not only waders but other birds as well," says Veli-Matti Pakanen, a university lecturer at the University of Oulu who participated in the research. "Increased flooding can reduce breeding success and, at worst, could lead to a decline in the bird species of the Bothnian Bay."The Baltic Sea has no tides, but strong winds and low-pressure systems can push water levels dramatically higher. According to the study, these storm-driven sea floods have become more frequent, particularly in spring and early summer, exactly when waders are incubating their eggs. When flooding occurs during incubation, nests are submerged and typically abandoned.Over the past decade, there has been at least one flood exceeding the critical threshold in almost every breeding season along the Bothnian Bay. Only a few decades ago, such years were far rarer.The research also shows that birds cannot always adapt by relocating their nests. "Overgrowth of coastal meadows and human land use have narrowed suitable breeding habitats. In many areas, the lowest and most flood-prone zone is the only open habitat left that still provides food and the right vegetation structure," explains Pakanen."This creates a clear contradiction: Nests are placed where conditions are otherwise ideal, but where flood risk is highest."
Greens push to intervene in suit over boat speeds to protect whales - - Environmental groups are pushing to intervene against a conservative-backed effort to overturn boat speed limits in the Atlantic Ocean aimed at protecting one of the most endangered whale species. Since 2008, NOAA has imposed seasonal speed limits of 10 knots on vessels 65 feet and longer in areas along the East Coast to protect the North Atlantic right whale, which is vulnerable to vessel strikes and has fewer than 400 individuals remaining. Around 70 females are estimated to be reproductively active, while the greatest threats to the species are getting hit by boats or entangled in fishing gear.“The speed limit rule is a slender thread protecting North Atlantic right whales from extinction, and if it’s ripped away these majestic animals could plunge into the abyss,” Kristen Monsell, oceans legal director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said in a statement.The Center for Biological Diversity, Defenders of Wildlife, Whale and Dolphin Conservation and the Conservation Law Foundation filed Monday to intervene in the legal proceedings in federal court in New York.
Bottom trawling is scraping oceans of wildlife - -Bottom trawlers extract one-quarter of the world's fisheries catches by weight and raise significant ecological, economic and social concerns. Given that, you'd think there would be an answer to basic questions in fisheries: how many fish species are being caught, and what are they? In reality, though, bottom trawling is often proceeding blindly. Bottom trawling is widespread and problematic. Gears operate by dragging large weighted nets across the ocean floor (some as wide as a 45-story building is tall), sweeping up most of the life they encounter along the way and destroying habitat.Hundreds of thousands of bottom trawlers operate all over the world, often dependent on subsidies, implicated in human rights violations and exacerbating climate change.We lead a conservation team called Project Seahorse, dedicated to ensuring there are more fish in the ocean in healthier ecosystems. We focus our work on securing healthy populations of seahorses—and to save seahorses, we have to save the seas.By far the biggest threat to seahorses is their incidental capture in bottom trawls. As such, seahorses provide an index of the tremendous intensity of bottom trawling.It was while developing a briefing on bottom trawl impacts that we realized no one knew the actual tally or diversity of fish getting caught up in nets. So we set out to provide an answer and in so doing unveiled more about the pressure bottom trawling is placing on marine species, ecosystems and fisheries worldwide.Our research was anchored in tedious work as our co-authors took a deep dive into studies and reports hosted on the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) document repository, supplemented by an ad hoc exploration of additional literature.The FAO is an intergovernmental organization that, among other things, collates worldwide fisheries data. We extracted more than 9,000 reports of fish species in bottom trawl catches, spanning from 1895 to 2021.The first of our worrying findings is that a huge number of species are affected. We documented around 3,000 different fish species in bottom trawl catches but our modeled estimates suggest the true number could be double that.Our data also showed that bottom trawls extract all or most species in some fish families. These include both the ocean's most nutritious and commercially critical fish, such as jacks and croakers, and rare, distinct fish such as giant guitarfish and plow-nosed chimera. Our second discovery is that many of the species we documented are already known to be of conservation concern. Among those on the International Union for Conservation of Nature's (IUCN) Red List, about one in seven are classified as threatened or near-threatened with extinction. Bottom trawling was also cited in threat assessments for two-thirds of those species. Our third finding was that there is limited information on the conservation status for many of the fish caught in bottom trawls. About one-quarter of the species we recorded were listed as "data deficient" or "not evaluated" by IUCN, meaning their conservation status is essentially unknown. People tend to focus on the threatened species, which certainly need our attention; seahorses among them. However, we also need to be concerned about the species in trawls that lack conservation assessments, which may also be faring badly.Finally, we found that many species are not even being recorded. Our database includes relatively few records of smaller demersal species (animals that live near the bottom of the sea), with fisheries often just lumping them together as "various" or "trash fish."As many fish are so often overlooked or ignored in catch records, we often don't actually know what bottom trawlers are catching. When species are not recorded, we lose critical information about biodiversity, population status and ecosystem impacts, not to mention the loss of resources that people depend on for food and livelihoods. Bottom trawl fisheries should be required to demonstrate that they are ecologically, economically and socially sustainable before being considered acceptable. As it stands, the burden of proof falls on those trying to demonstrate harm—not on the industry causing it. This needs to be reversed, paying full attention to all the fish in the nets.
A vital Atlantic current is fading far faster, threatening Europe, Africa and North America by 2100 -A key Atlantic Ocean current system that helps regulate the planet's climate could weaken more than expected by 2100, with potentially devastating consequences worldwide, a new study has found.Known as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this conveyor belt of currents plays a crucial role in redistributing heat by transporting warmer waters from the tropics northward. An AMOC collapse could lead to harsher winters in northern Europe, droughts in South Asia and the Sahel region in Africa, and higher sea levels in North America, among other consequences.Previous climate model projections have estimated an average slowdown of around 32% by the end of the century due to climate change. The latest study, published in the journal Science Advances, estimates that the system could slow by 51% by 2100 under a mid-range scenario for greenhouse gas emissions, with a margin of error of plus or minus eight percentage points."We obtained an estimate of a future AMOC slowdown that is more severe than we expected," climate scientist Valentin Portmann, the paper's lead author, told AFP."We are closer to a critical state that is worrying," Portmann said.Predicting what will happen to AMOC in the future is a topic of debate in the scientific community. “There is a kind of consensus on the fact that this circulation will slow down. But there is still quite a bit of debate about the intensity of this slowdown," said Florian Sevellec, research director at the French National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) in Brest, France.The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is sort of a conveyor belt of currents that plays a crucial role in climate regulation.In its 2021 report, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said AMOC will "very likely decline" over this century.But the panel of international experts also expressed "medium confidence" that a collapse of AMOC would not take place before 2100.The latest study, conducted by researchers from the CNRS and the University of Bordeaux in southwest France, seeks to "refine this estimate of the future slowdown" and "reduce uncertainty", Sevellec said.While nearly all climate models predict an AMOC slowdown by 2100, the projections range widely: from as little as 3% to as much as 72%, depending on varying emissions scenarios.Portmann said the new study seeks to narrow that uncertainty using "observational constraints"—a statistical approach that combines real-world observations with results from climate models.Stefan Rahmstorf, an oceanographer at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), said the paper showed that pessimistic models "are unfortunately the realistic ones, in that they agree better with observational data." Fabien Roquet, a physical oceanography professor at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, said the study was interesting but he cautioned that another team using a similar method reached opposite conclusions last year."What is certain, however, is that the climate is warming rapidly," Roquet said."Whether the AMOC weakens or not, large-scale changes are already underway... and should intensify in the coming decades.
Severe thunderstorms leave over 100 dead across Uttar Pradesh, India - (videos) Severe thunderstorms swept across Uttar Pradesh, India, on the night of May 13, 2026, claiming at least 104 lives and leaving over 59 people injured across the state. Prayagraj was the worst hit, with preliminary reports indicating between 20 and 30 fatalities. Widespread destruction was reported in multiple districts, with more than 80 homes being damaged along with other structures. At least 104 people were reported dead after severe thunderstorms swept across Uttar Pradesh (UP) on May 13, causing widespread destruction across the state. Most storm-related incidents were reported between 20:00 and 23:30 IST (14:30 and 18:00 UTC). The Relief Commissioner’s Office (RCO) said at least 114 livestock animals were also lost, while 87 homes were damaged. The main causes of fatality included wall collapses, lightning strikes, and tree falls during the storms. “The Honorable Chief Minister has directed all Divisional Commissioners and District Magistrates to verify this with complete sensitivity and, within 24 hours, distribute financial assistance to the affected families while establishing direct communication with them to provide other necessary aid,” RCO said. “The Office of the Relief Commissioner is continuously monitoring this through direct communication with district officials and ensuring the necessary funds are made available to the districts,” they added. Hindu pilgrimage city of Prayagraj was the worst hit, with 21 deaths being reported; however, the exact number remains unclear, with local reports citing 21 to 30 fatalities in the Prayagraj district alone. Among the confirmed, at least seven deaths have been confirmed in Handia, four in Phulpur, three in Soraon, two in Meja, and one in Sadar. At least 16 fatalities were also confirmed in the Bhadohi district. Additional District Magistrate Kunwar Virendra Kumar Maurya said trees and electric poles were uprooted in several areas, while many houses were damaged in the storm. Fatehpur Additional District Magistrate Avinash Tripathi said nine people were killed and 16 were injured in storm-related incidents in the district. “Eight people, including five women, died in Khaga tehsil, while a woman died after a wall of a house collapsed in Sadar tehsil,” he said. Meanwhile, four people died in separate incidents of wall collapses and lightning strikes. A 25-year-old man died after a cemented shed collapsed in Ojha Ka Purwa village. Another 56-year-old man died after a wall collapsed in Sari Swami Village. One 46-year-old woman in Narangpur and a 44-year-old man in Chahtarpur died due to storm-related incidents, according to local police officers. At least two people were reported dead in the Kanpur Dehat District due to rain-related incidents. A 19-year-old girl died after being struck by lightning while standing under a tree in Bhauthari village, under the Rasulabad area, with her goats. Many of the goats were also killed, while a 44-year-old man nearby was injured. At least one person was reported dead in each of the Deoria and Neruari villages due to lightning strikes, while one person died in Sonbhadra after getting trapped under an uprooted tree. The fatality and damage totals remain preliminary and were current as of 15:10 IST (09:40 UTC) on May 13.
Carbon-capture technology could trigger the deforestation it was designed to prevent --A technology designed to mitigate global warming could, paradoxically, contribute to carbon emissions if hotter temperatures lead to a shift in where bioenergy crops are grown. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) involves combusting or fermenting biological materials to produce energy while capturing the carbon dioxide emitted by the process and storing it underground. BECCS could help mitigate climate change, and many models of a net-zero emissions future assume widespread use of the technology. However, first generation bioenergy production requires substantial land area to grow the crops used as feedstocks.Robert Fofrich Navarro and colleagues modeled how climate warming will affect the production of key bioenergy crops. The authors find that up to 40% of existing oil palm production, up to 13% of existing sugarcane production, and up to 10% of existing soybean production will occur in locations within the tropics that will not be suitable for these crops by 2060 under lower warming scenarios.These results, published in PNAS Nexus, raise the possibility that farmers may expand production to new, cooler areas to maintain production, potentially leading to deforestation. Deforestation would release carbon dioxide as trees are burned or felled. Reductions in ecosystem carbon from deforestation could outweigh the climate benefits of biofuel-based mitigation and threaten species in the tropics, the most biodiverse part of the world. According to the authors, bioenergy strategies must be assessed in the context of climate warming.“Green Machine” targets plastics at consumer expense – CFACT -- Your casserole went stale and your mayo turned bad, along with a few pastries. But that’s okay since you’re taking one for the team and doing your part to save the planet! Those nasty plastics will bring about death and destruction. Or so you’ve been told. In reality, green activists operating in the name of “sustainability” have joined forces with corporate interests to increase consumer prices and coerce inferior products into the marketplace. All in the name of combatting plastics — and the motivations are not difficult to understand. Green activists who have lost ground on their climate agenda under President Donald Trump have repackaged that same agenda under a different name. As to the corporations, they are only too pleased to limit competition and charge consumers more, while giving off the appearance of being concerned about the environment.Pressure groups including the U.S. Plastics Pact, the Consumer Goods Forum, and the Sustainable Packaging Coalition, have joined with heavy hitters like Coca-Cola, Target, Unilever, Mondelez, and Nestle to impose burdensome environmental targets. These include: arbitrary recycled-content quotas and directives to redesign everyday packaging — just to make certain products are as expensive as possible. Fortunately, Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier has entered the fray to take on the “sustainability agenda.” Earlier this month, he initiated an anti-trust investigation and issued Civil Investigative Demands (CIDs) to the plastics trade groups and the corporations complicit with their agenda. In a statement, Uthmeier said, “Environmental groups are pressuring corporations to abandon free market principles and raise prices on consumers for products they don’t want.”Contrary to what green activists would like the public to believe, plastics come with significant benefits as a direct result of human innovation. They keep food fresh, alleviate waste, make products lighter and therefore more affordable. They also contribute to life-saving medical devices. If environmental activists turned government bureaucrats were genuinely interested in environmental improvements, they would focus on more efficient waste management, enhanced recycling infrastructure, and biodegradable innovations. But none of those solutions are on the table. Instead, the radicals push a top-down policy approach that suffocates the free market.Bonner Cohen, a senior fellow with the National Center for Public Policy Research, took down the concept of “sustainable development” in an interview with Restoration News, saying: What needs to be understood about ‘sustainable development’ is that what is being peddled is itself unsustainable. Absent government mandates, industry collusion, and interminable lawsuits, the alternatives to plastics could not stand on their own two feet. The marketplace, which reflects consumer preferences, is the best place to separate the sheep from the goats. Just as the PC vanquished the electric typewriter, and internet transmissions quashed the fax machine, superior products prevail over inferior ones. But this is an arena the anti-plastics lobby does not dare to enter. They know they will lose. Florida’s attorney general sees this game for what it is and is to be applauded for taking appropriate action. May other state AGs follow his example.At a time when the climate agenda is running up against scientific facts and economic realities; let’s not give that agenda new life under a different name.Time to face facts. The war on plastics amounts to nothing more than a war on modern conveniences made possible by the innovations inherent in the free market. The green cultists would prefer humanity return to a time when casseroles and mayonnaise spoil in hours instead of days, and cell phones use inferior materials and fall apart in months.Thankfully, Florida AG James Uthmeier has initiated anti-trust investigations to put an end to this nonsense in the corporate world, and to put a stake through the heart of “sustainability.”
Why this Michigan utility plans to sell its hydro dams for $13 - A big fight is simmering in Michigan over the smallest of energy deals. The dispute pits the state’s second-largest utility, Consumers Energy, against conservation groups and the agency tasked with shepherding the state’s natural resources, which are challenging the utility’s plan to sell 13 aging, uneconomic hydroelectric dams for $1 apiece to a Maryland private equity firm. The sale to Confluence Hydro, which must be approved by state regulators, seeks to unlock the more than $1 billion of investment needed to relicense the 100-year-old dams. It’s a plan welcomed by the communities that built up around the dams’ reservoirs, which are now hubs for boating, fishing and swimming. But a coalition of conservation groups and anglers, who prize the state’s river systems, seek to block the deal. The groups say that the terms of the sale and the proposed ownership structure are full of red flags. And they point to a spotty record of private dam ownership in Michigan, including dam failures that have led to catastrophic flooding. “None of the commitments made by Consumers and Confluence add up,” said Robert Kelter, an attorney with the Chicago-based Environmental Law and Policy Center, which is representing the conservation and angler groups known as the Michigan Hydro Relicensing Coalition. At stake is whether handing over a fleet of aging, expensive hydro dams — which play only a tiny role in Michigan’s clean energy goals — is justified by the economic benefit they provide their host communities. The dams are among hundreds in Michigan that are nearing a century of use, raising safety concerns as climate change fuels heavier rains and extreme weather. Among the angler coalition’s objections are the establishment of a limited liability corporation for each of the dams and an agreement that Consumers Energy purchase power from Confluence Hydro at an above-market price. “They set up 13 separate LLCs to ringfence them so that they can bankrupt any one of the individual dams if they’re not profitable,” Kelter said. It’s a view shared by Michigan’s Department of Natural Resources, which has likewise urged the state’s Public Service Commission to reject the deal. It’s the first time in DNR’s 100-year-plus history that it has intervened in a utility case.With the PSC expected to act on the sale this summer, Confluence Hydro is emphasizing its due diligence.Natalie Joubert, the company’s vice president of external affairs and policy analysis, said Confluence Hydro spent more than a year researching the investment and negotiating contact terms that support relicensing and continued operation of the dams.The newly formed company is focused exclusively on hydropower, she said, and brings with it the financial capability and “innovative thinking” to make the dams a small but important player in Michigan’s clean energy future. “We view hydro as an exceptional resource, but it’s under-appreciated in a lot of ways,” Joubert said. “We see a lot of opportunity as the fleet ages, as our power demand is growing throughout the country, to upgrade the equipment and improve dam infrastructure and use some innovative approaches so that these assets can operate efficiently well into the future.”
PJM takes a political pounding at its annual meeting - — The nation’s largest power market is facing renewed pressure from a governor with presidential aspirations to control electricity prices and better protect mid-Atlantic states from potential energy shortfalls. Maryland’s Democratic governor, Wes Moore, on Monday upbraided utility executives attending the annual meeting of PJM Interconnection, the operator of the high-powered transmission system delivering electricity across 13 states from Chicago to New Jersey to the tech corridors outside of Washington. “There’s no clear plan by PJM to address both affordability and reliability,” said Moore, who faces reelection this year and who is eyeing a 2028 presidential run. PJM’s leadership, Moore said, isn’t acting with the urgency that state leaders expect as electricity demand is projected to race ahead of supply before the end of the decade — as data centers and the digital economy consume vasts amount of power. Concern about the erosion of grid reliability and energy inflation is driving political debates heading into midterm elections. Moore kept up the monthslong drumbeat of criticism directed at PJM’s power market from the Trump administration and high-profile Democratic governors, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill. One of their key gripes: PJM failed to see the rise of artificial intelligence and the next phase of U.S. industrial growth. “Even if we didn’t foresee the scale, data centers are not new. And we knew a while ago that we would see a lot more,” Moore said. “But PJM failed to get ahead of it, and did not have the structure in place to accommodate this load and maintain reliability at an acceptable cost, in a way that all these states expected.” Pennsylvania-based PJM, regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, is under immense pressure to both build in consumer protections against wholesale electricity price spikes and to speed up its process for connecting generation and data centers to the grid. PJM this month released a white paper outlining the so-called credibility gap at the heart of its market problems: Higher capacity prices in PJM’s wholesale market that would otherwise spur power plant investments provoked a political backlash. Price caps, as a result, have discouraged investors. But in the 70-page white paper, PJM CEO David Mills also pushed back against the political pressure. “Those choices belong to the people and institutions with democratic accountability for their consequences — to state regulators and legislatures, to FERC, to consumers and the advocates who represent them,” Mills wrote. “PJM’s role is to ensure those choices are made clearly, not to substitute our judgment for theirs.” Moore on Monday countered with frustration that states are having to go it alone by crafting their own responses to double-digit increases in utility bills tied to the wholesale power market. “We shouldn’t have to do the job of PJM for PJM,” the governor said. “And if PJM cannot step up, then states like Maryland will continue to do what we can to protect our people. And the challenge is: every other state is going to do the same. And that coordination that is necessary will not be there.” Moore called on the grid operator to shift more infrastructure costs onto data centers, clear its interconnection queue for new generation and hold a special auction in September to sign up utilities and data center operators for 15-year power supply contracts. Holding a September auction — as opposed to delaying it — is “a test of whether PJM can deliver under pressure.”
FERC Chair Swett Threatens PJM to Its Face: “Too Big to Function” --Marcellus Drilling News - Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has been blaming the PJM Interconnection grid for the soaring costs of electricity when his own policies are to blame, even threatening to pull out of the cooperative (see Gov. Josh “Bully” Shapiro Renews Threat to Pull PA Out of PJM Grid). What we didn’t see coming was criticism of PJM from the other side, from Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Chairwoman Laura Swett. She attended PJM’s annual meeting on Tuesday in Baltimore and told those in attendance (to PJM’s face) that the organization may be “too big to function” and has an “unacceptable” governance structure. Swett announced that FERC will hold a July 23 “technical” conference to discuss reforms for the biggest U.S. grid. With friends like this, who needs enemies, right?
PA PUC Officially Adopts High Tax on New Data Centers --Marcellus Drilling News --Last November, the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PUC) approved a Tentative Order by a 3-2 vote, proposing a statewide model tariff (tax) to manage the growing impact of large-load customers, such as AI data centers, on the electric grid (see PA PUC Votes 3-2 to Levy New Taxes & Regs on AI Data Centers). The stated goal of the new tariff is to encourage investment and job growth while protecting existing ratepayers from cost-shifts and ensuring reliability. The PUC failed. The proposed order was passed on a partisan basis, with the three Democrat commissioners voting to make it harder and more expensive for data centers to locate in the Keystone State, potentially jeopardizing $92 billion of investments promised to the state related to data centers. The PUC published its flawed proposal in the November 22 Pennsylvania Bulletin, kicking off a 30-day comment period as a prelude to final adoption (see PA PUC Continues Down Road to Taxation Perdition re Data Centers).
EPA Cuts Red Tape re Building Gas Plants, Data Centers, Factories -Marcellus Drilling News -- The federal EPA has proposed new rules allowing gas-fired power plants, data centers, and factories to begin constructing non-polluting components like piping, wiring, and cement pads before receiving air emission permits. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin stated that this aims to streamline critical infrastructure projects and advance technological development, particularly for AI. Critics, including Big Green lawyers, argue these changes undermine the Clean Air Act by making it harder for communities to “protect air quality.” More importantly, Big Green says it will make it harder for regulators to reject permits after significant investment has already been made. Well, duh! That’s the point.
Ascent 1Q Profit Swings $658M, Utica Output Tops 2.1 Bcfe/d - Marcellus Drilling News - Ascent Resources, formerly American Energy Partners, was founded by Aubrey McClendon and is a privately held company that focuses 100% on the Ohio Utica Shale. Ascent, headquartered in Oklahoma City, OK, is Ohio’s largest natural gas producer and one of the largest natural gas producers in the U.S. The company issued its first quarter 2026 update last week. First quarter net production averaged 2,132 MMcfe/d, consisting of 1,838 MMcf/d of natural gas, 11,500 bbls per day of oil, and 37,589 bbls per day of natural gas liquids (NGLs), putting liquids at 14% of the overall production mix for the quarter.
Utica Shale Academy receives $50000 award from Future Forward Schools program - The Future Forward Schools program, led by national non-profits Building Hope and Britebound, selected five schools from around the country to receive $250,000 for helping students from under-resourced communities. Utica Shale Academy in Salineville was selected out of a pool of over 150 applicants, and underwent a lengthy selection process involving multiple stages of judging, interviews and applications. Christine Mentis, the director of the Future Forward Schools program at Building Hope, said the Utica stood out to her because of the way they use their resources to help students to be successful. “They understand the community, and they understand the needs within their community. They are creating a program that not only allows for kids to do blended learning online, but also to get the skills where they can work straight out of high school, right there in the community and not having to leave to have fulfilling careers,” Mentis said. With the award money, Superintendent William Watson said the school will see new opportunities in a mechanics program, and plans to purchase a snap on tire changer to help students learn to change tires. He also noted that they will work towards getting students credentialed. Watson also explained that with the mechanics program also comes an opportunity for the students and staff at the school to generate a self-circulating economy, by servicing the vehicles of the community and other students and staff at the school. “In Appalachia, transportation is one of the biggest barriers to success. Any time that you can have the student population tackle a barrier to success themselves is a win for everyone,” Watson said. In addition to the program expansion, Watson plans to use the funds to upgrade the schools vehicles.
Infinity Natural Resources Announces First Quarter 2026 Results - Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. today reported its first quarter 2026 financial and operating results. First Quarter 2026 & Recent Highlights
- Completed the transformative $1.2 billion acquisition of upstream and midstream assets from Antero Resources and Antero Midstream in Ohio (the “Antero Acquisition”) and the acquisition from Chase Oil Corp to increase our working interest in Pennsylvania
- Completed upsized offering of $550 million of 7.625% Senior Notes due 2031
- Completed $350 million strategic equity investment from Quantum Capital Group and Carnelian Energy Capital
- Delivered 88% growth in total net daily production to 299.3 MMcfe/d in the first quarter 2026 compared to the first quarter 2025
- Completed and placed four oil-weighted wells in the volatile oil window of the Ohio Utica Shale into sales in the first quarter totaling approximately 53,000 lateral feet
- Increased natural gas net production 169% in the first quarter 2026 compared to first quarter 2025
- Narrowed net loss to $6.3 million or $0.45 per share during the first quarter 2026 compared to a net loss of $2.27 per share during the first quarter 2025
- Delivered 70% growth in Adjusted EBITDAX (1) to $97.3 million in the first quarter 2026 compared to the first quarter 2025, representing an Adjusted EBITDAX Margin (1) of $3.61 / Mcfe, which we believe is the best among our Appalachian Basin peers
- Acquired approximately 44,000 net surface acres through acquisitions and approximately 1,285 net surface acres through organic leasing efforts during the quarter
- Generated $58.4 million of net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter
- Incurred $111.5 million of development capital expenditures, including drilling and completion (“D&C”) and midstream
- Total net debt (1) was approximately $477.0 million and total liquidity was $928.8 million as of March 31, 2026
Iran conflict may improve odds of Shell deal for Pennsylvania PE complex - Shell plc says it is moving ahead with plans to pursue a possible sale or partnership for its Pennsylvania polyethylene complex as the Iran conflict reshapes global energy and petrochemical markets.
PA Antis Demand DEP Redo Shale Cuttings in Landfill Report --Marcellus Drilling News - In March, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) released the results of a two-year study that found radium levels in landfill wastewater (leachate) from landfills with drill cuttings do NOT pose a risk to human health (see PA DEP Report: Leachate from Landfills with Shale Cuttings Safe). Real science like this doesn’t fit the narrative of the leftist environmental movement, which hews to political science rather than real science. So, some of the worst of the worst Big Green groups have banded together to demand that the DEP redo the study, and this time produce a result that they want. Read More
Anti-Fossil Fuelers Trash Talk Homer City Pipeline at DEP Hearing --Marcellus Drilling News -- At a Pennsylvania DEP hearing in Indiana County, environmental extremists opposed a proposed 5.8-mile, 30-inch natural gas pipeline serving Homer City Redevelopment’s planned $10 billion, 4.5-GW gas-fired power plant and hyperscale data center campus. The pipeline would cross streams, wetlands, and floodways, potentially affecting Muddy Run, Blacklick Creek, and various tributaries. Reminding us of Chicken Little in The Sky is Falling, speakers warned of water pollution, setbacks to acid mine drainage restoration, drought-related water stress, and inadequate transparency around the fast-moving project
PA DEP Denies Road Permit for PGE Shale Pad in Loyalsock Forest --Marcellus Drilling News - Last December, MDN told you that three anti-shale drilling groups—the PA Council of Trout Unlimited, the Keystone Trails Association, and the Responsible Drilling Alliance—requested the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) hold a hearing on the Chapter 105 permit requested for a 3.9-mile shale gas access road and staging area proposed by Pennsylvania General Energy (PGE) in the Loyalsock State Forest (see PA Antis Want DEP Hearing on 3.9-Mile Rd to Shale Pad in Loyalsock). The antis kept up the pressure. They squawked a lot during a DEP virtual public hearing in February (see Antis Flood PA DEP Hearing Against Drilling in Loyalsock Forest). The hearing focused on the Chapter 105 water-quality permit for PGE’s proposal to construct an access road. Congratulations to the crazies: They succeeded
EOG Resources: Q1 2026 earnings beat with strong cash flow and production growth - EOG Resources has reported first quarter 2026 results that topped analyst expectations, driven by stronger crude oil, natural gas liquids and gas volumes, favorable derivative results and solid operating margins across its U.S. shale portfolio. The company posted net income of about $1.98 billion on total operating revenue of roughly $6.92 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.41, above consensus estimates of around $3.02–$3.23 per share, according to earnings summaries and market data providers. Operating cash flow rose to about $2.97 billion, funding roughly $1.60 billion of exploration and development spending, a regular quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share and around $402 million in share repurchases. Free cash flow reached about $1.5 billion, and the company returned nearly $950 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, underscoring its focus on disciplined capital allocation and shareholder returns.
22 New Shale Well Permits Issued for PA-OH-WV May 4 – 10 --Marcellus Drilling News -- The Marcellus/Utica region received 22 new drilling permits last week, May 4 – 10, up from the 19 permits issued two weeks ago. Pennsylvania issued 10 of last week’s permits. Ohio issued 8 new permits. West Virginia issued 4 new permits last week. The drillers who received new permits included: Ascent Resources, EOG Resources, EQT (including subsidiary Rice Drilling), Expand Energy, and Northeast Natural Energy. Ascent Resources | Bradford County | EOG Resources | EQT Corp | Expand Energy | Greene County (PA) | Guernsey County | Harrison County | Monongalia County | Noble County | Northeast Natural Energy
US Shale Crescent Region Offers To Derisk India's LPG Supplies - Deccan Chronicle - Three US states -- collectively called the Shale Crescent region -- with large natural gas reserves are seeking new investments from around the world, said a senior official from Shale Crescent USA. “The Shale Crescent region consists of Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. It is home to one of the world's largest natural gas reserves. It offers an excellent advantage to the investors,” said Greg Kozera, director (marketing), Shale Crescent USA, during the 2026 SelectUSA Investment Summit. Also Read - US Plans To Indict Cuba's Raul Castro, US DOJ Official Says Advertisement The Shale Crescent region sits atop the Marcellus and Utica Shale formations, which together account for 85 per cent of new natural gas supply. Kozera, however, said the companies need to establish liquefaction plants to convert the national gas into liquefied natural gas for shipping abroad. The natural gas price in the Shale Crescent region is priced at $3.21 MMBtu, compared to $1.50 - $2.50 in Qatar. However, in the wake of the Iran crisis, the total landed cost of one MMBtu of liquefied natural gas in India from the Shale Crescent region is expected to $10 to $11 compared to around $12 to $14 from West Asia. Also Read - Trump, Xi Agreed Strait of Hormuz Must Remain Open: White House According to data from the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), India needs 33.1 million metric tonnes (MMT) of LPG. Of this, nearly 40 per cent or 12.8 MMT is produced domestically. The rest of the 60 per cent or 20 million metric tonnes of LPG is imported from West Asia, which is reeling under the war. As West Asia remains a volatile region geopolitically, experts believe that the diversification of natural gas procurement could provide strategic stability to India and protect Indian kitchens from the vagaries of any one region. Also Read - Musk, Cook Invited To Join Trump On Trip To China Since India is the second largest consumer of LPG after China, the government could seek long-term contracts with a fixed price. Though the landed price of the US gas would be more than that of West Asia, the average price of the overall LPG from different sources could be manageable for India, especially in view of the strategic autonomy that it offers to the world’s most populous country.
Phila. Gas Works’ Proposed LNG Plant Replacement Still in Limbo --Marcellus Drilling News -- The Philadelphia Gas Commission, for a second time, has postponed a vote on Philadelphia Gas Works’ (PGW) $182 million proposal to replace and expand its natural gas liquefier (LNG plant) in Port Richmond. The commission’s staff and the Public Advocate recommend rejecting the project, arguing it is oversized and could burden customers with unnecessary debt. They also cite incomplete plant and project designs. PGW argues the upgrade is crucial for safety and affordability, preventing potential harm to customers during cold winters and avoiding the need to truck in liquefied natural gas (LNG). Instead of approving the project, the Commission voted to spend $1 million on an environmental impact study and $4 million for an engineering study. That is, they voted to procrastinate.
NFG Expands Line N as Seneca Marcellus/Utica Output Slips --Marcellus Drilling News - National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is an integrated natural gas company with a regulated utility business, a shale drilling business (Seneca Resources), and a pipeline business (NFG Midstream, Empire Pipeline). The company issued its fiscal second quarter update two weeks ago, which is everyone else’s calendar first quarter update. The good news is that NFG is upgrading its Line N natural gas pipeline to carry an additional 94,000 Dth/d (90 MMcf/d) of Marcellus/Utica shale gas. The bad news is that Seneca produced 102.0 Bcf of natural gas, a decrease of 3.5 Bcf, or 3%, from the prior year, largely due to weather-driven completion delays and “typical natural gas production declines on producing wells.”
Northeast Natural Gas Market is Poised for a Reawakening --Marcellus Drilling News -- May According to RBN Energy, the Northeast natural gas market is entering a new phase after years of stalled pipeline development and Appalachian takeaway constraints. Once a premium destination for Gulf Coast and Canadian gas, the region became a major supplier as Marcellus/Utica production surged, reversing flows toward the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Recent legal, regulatory, and cost hurdles have frozen major projects, with the Mountain Valley Pipeline serving as both a milestone and a warning. Now, under a friendlier regulatory climate, new expansions toward New York/New Jersey and New England are advancing.
Enbridge Briefed Trump Admin on Plan to Expand Pipe into New England --Marcellus Drilling News - Enbridge is exploring a major expansion of its Algonquin Gas Transmission pipeline into New England, a move sure to inflame environmental extremists. According to super-secret sources blabbing to E&E News, the company briefed the Trump administration’s National Energy Dominance Council and potential buyers about the project. Details remain preliminary and undisclosed. The proposal comes as Democratic governors in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island face pressure over high energy costs while pursuing nutty climate goals.
Old Hippies Protest Connecticut DEEP HQ re Iroquois Compressor --Marcellus Drilling News - The Iroquois Gas Transmission’s Enhancement by Compression (ExC) project will increase horsepower at three compression stations — two in New York and one in Connecticut — by an extra 125 MMcf/d, to flow more Marcellus/Utica gas into New York City and New England. The NY Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) approved the permits for the NY compressors with the condition that Iroquois pays a $1.5 million “contribution” (we call it a bribe) to the “Disadvantaged Community Benefit Program” (see NY DEC Approves Iroquois Pipe Expansion…With $1.5M “Contribution”). The only remaining holdup is a permit from the CT Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) for the Brookfield compressor, which has been on hold since June of last year (see Iroquois Pipe Expansion Close to Construction, Waiting on CT Permit). A handful of old hippies staged a sit-in at DEEP headquarters on Monday to protest the compressor station.
Residents concerned about proposed natural gas pipeline A heated meeting took place as residents and Shelby County magistrates raised concerns about a proposed high-pressure natural gas pipeline that may cut through their backyards. Residents filled the fiscal court meeting room to hear from Texas Gas representatives about the 264-mile pipeline routed to run from Ohio to Kentucky. "There will be people impacted; we’re very much aware of that," said Texas Gas representative Mike McMahon. "We are willing to work with people to try to make them feel comfortable." District Seven Magistrate Danny Eades asked several questions to the representatives on behalf of his constituents. He began by asking about eminent domain. McMahon responded that the company uses it only as a last resort. McMahon told the crowd that, typically, Texas Gas will purchase about 50 feet of easement from each property owner and will restore the right of way after construction. After the project is completed, Texas Gas asks property owners not to build within the pipeline right of way, but owners may farm and graze on top of the pipeline. Texas Gas Representatives say the route is not set in stone yet and that several public forums will be held, but dates have not been announced. Potential paths include parts of Shelby, Carroll and Trimble counties, avoiding Louisville and continuing west past Hardinsburg. If approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, construction could begin in 2028, with the pipeline operational by 2030. McMahon confirmed that Texas Gas does not need permission from the Fiscal Court or the state legislature to begin the project, but rather approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Local officials are concerned that they are just hearing about the proposed pipeline and that their hands are tied in the approval process. “I believe some type of public information should have been put out,” said Eades. Denise and Jerry Vandevelde, Shelby County residents who own property on the proposed pipeline route, recently received a letter from Texas Gas asking permission to survey their land. The Vandeveldes are especially concerned as the Mid-Valley Oil Pipeline already runs through their property. While they were aware of the existing pipeline when the property was purchased and accepted the restrictions that came along with it, they now fear the further restrictions that come with a new line and what the future holds if they ever decide to sell. The proposed route also places the pipeline close to the Vandeveldes' home. Representatives during the meeting said they are pushed by regulators to create the route as close as possible to other utilities and will work with the property owner on a solution. The Vandeveldes are also concerned about safety risks, including potential explosions and constant exposure. They worry the pipeline may cause their insurance rates to rise because they may now require additional coverage. The property also has a vast forest on one side. According to McMahon during the meeting, Texas Oil will only be responsible for restoring the 50-foot easement; any other restoration will be the property owner's responsibility. Vandevelde has also been told that no mention will be made in the contract to say that Texas Oil must cover property damages in the event of an explosion. “We are not against progress; however, we are protecting our homes, our community, and our land because we already have one pipeline and having another one isn't fair, and we are asking for fair treatment; we just want our voices heard and our home protected. I had questions, and all of them were not asked,” said Vandvelde.Big Green Continues Smear Campaign Against Dominion SC Power Plant -Marcellus Drilling News -- In February 2024, members of the South Carolina Public Service Commission approved a proposed project to build a 2,200-megawatt (MW) gas-fired power plant in the state’s Lowcountry, in Colleton County (see SC PSC Approves Gas-Fired Power Plant Proposed for Edisto River). The Canadys project is a 50/50 partnership between Dominion Energy (formerly South Carolina Electric & Gas) and Santee Cooper (South Carolina’s state-owned electric and water utility). As they have from the beginning, the two companies continue to defend the project against attacks by anti-fossil fuel groups. Big Green continues its PR and lawfare campaign against the project.
4th Circuit Judge Tells Antis to Post a $100M Bond to Block Pipe -Marcellus Drilling News - It seems that not all of the judges who sit on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit (4th Circuit) are clowns, the way the three judges who oversee cases dealing with the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) Southgate project are (see 4th Circus Clown Judges Badmouth MVP Southgate in Oral Arguments). Another major pipeline project that, in some senses, competes with Southgate, Williams’ Transco Southeast Supply Enhancement Project (SESE), is also being sued by Big Green to block it (see Big Green Sues to Cancel Water Permit for Transco SESE Project). The case is also before the 4th Circuit, where oral arguments were heard yesterday. The SESE case is being heard by three judges different from those hearing the Southgate case.
SC PSC Approves Duke/Santee Cooper 2.2 GW Gas-Fired Power Plant --Marcellus Drilling News - Good news! The Public Service Commission (PSC) of South Carolina approved a joint application by Dominion Energy and Santee Cooper to build Canadys Station, a natural gas combined-cycle facility in Colleton County. The plant will generate approximately 2,200 megawatts (2.2 GW) — enough to power over one million homes — addressing the state’s growing energy demand. It will be built on the site of a former Dominion Energy coal plant, roughly 40 miles northwest of Charleston (the “Lowcountry” region), eliminating the need for new land clearing.
Sen. Alan Armstrong: High Energy Costs Come from Lack of Pipelines --Marcellus Drilling News - Alan Armstrong, recently retired from his role of CEO at Williams, and the newly appointed U.S. Senator for Oklahoma (filling out the term of Markwayne Mullin, who left to become Secretary of Homeland Security), is already making his mark on the D.C. swamp. Armstrong is working on permitting reform. Along those lines, he published an op-ed appearing on The Hill website (required reading in the D.C. swamp). In his column, Sen. Armstrong argues that America’s high energy costs stem less from foreign conflict than from domestic infrastructure failures.
Venture Global Inks Another Short-Term LNG Supply from Growing Portfolio -- Venture Global said Tuesday it signed a third five-year LNG supply agreement and expanded another it inked in March as it looks to sell more of the super-chilled fuel for shorter terms. At a Glance:
- TotalEnergies signs five-year contract
- Venture promotes flexibility with deals
- Volumes sourced from multiple plants
Commonwealth LNG Gets Green Light as US LNG Boom Continues --Caturus on Friday sanctioned the $13 billion Commonwealth LNG project, saying construction on the 9.5 Mt/y export facility in Louisiana would start immediately. At a Glance:
- Abu Dhabi sovereign fund helps clinch FID
- Project under development for over a decade
- Four other greenfield projects being built
US LNG Feed Gas Flows Retreat From April Highs as Terminal Work Weighs on Demand -Near-term natural gas demand has continued to soften as maintenance events and extended commissioning weigh on feed gas nominations to US LNG terminals. NGI North America LNG export flow tracker shows US LNG deliveries near 16.8 million Dth/day led by Sabine Pass, Plaquemines terminals. At a Glance:
Freeport outage cuts Texas flows
Corpus Christi nominations remain reduced
Feed gas falls below 17 Bcf/d
US natural gas prices dip on weak demand and high storage levels (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 2% on Tuesday on forecasts for less demand than previously expected, ample amounts of fuel in storage and a drop in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants during the usual spring maintenance season. Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 6.7 cents, or 2.3%, to settle at $2.843 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Monday, the contract rose to its highest since March 27. In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 67 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.6 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. Output has declined in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, like EQT, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise in the future. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 4.3 bcfd over the past three days to a preliminary one-week low of 105.9 bcfd. Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this year. But, they noted, recent output declines coupled with higher demand from near-normal weather likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6% above normal during the week ended May 7, down from 7% above during the week ended May 1. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 98.4 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.1 bcfd so far in May, down from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
US natural gas futures rise as output drops and demand outlook improves - (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Wednesday on forecasts for more demand than previously expected and a decline in output in recent days. Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.1 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $2.864 per million British thermal units. In the cash market, average gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have remained in negative territory for a record 68 days in a row as pipeline constraints trap gas in the Permian region, the nation's biggest oil-producing shale basin. In the West, mild weather and ample hydropower supplies cut next-day power prices at the Mid Columbia hub in Oregon to their lowest since June 2022 and pushed spot power at South Path 15 in Southern California into negative territory for a ninth time this year. LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states slid to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 3.8 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 15-week low of 106.4 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Texas and Louisiana. Output has fallen in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, such as EQT, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production as they wait for prices to rise. Analysts said mild weather earlier this spring allowed energy firms to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this year. But, they noted, recent output declines coupled with higher demand due to near-normal weather likely reduced the inventory surplus to around 6.5% above normal during the week ended May 7, down from 6.7% above normal during the week ended May 1. Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through May 28. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 98.9 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants fell from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.2 bcfd so far in May due in part to maintenance at several plants, including Freeport LNG in Texas and Cameron LNG in Louisiana.
US natgas prices edge up as output falls to 15-week low and demand rises (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up on Thursday on a drop in output in recent days and forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected. Front-month gas futures for June delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.0 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $2.894 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said energy firms added an expected, near-normal 85 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended May 8. That reading was in line with the 85-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll, below the increase of 109 bcf during the same week last year and slightly above the five-year (2021-2025) average increase of 84 bcf for the period. LSEG said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states has slid to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in May, down from 109.8 bcfd in April and a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025. On a daily basis, output is on track to drop by 4.0 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 15-week low of 106.1 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to declines in Pennsylvania and Arkansas. Preliminary data is often revised later in the day. Output has fallen in recent weeks as low spot prices caused some energy firms, such as EQT EQT.N, the second-largest U.S. gas producer, to reduce production while waiting for prices to rise. LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would hold around 99.2 bcfd this week and next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday. Average gas flows to the nine big U.S. LNG export plants have fallen from a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April to 17.0 bcfd so far in May due in part to reductions at several plants, including Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's Golden Pass and Freeport LNG's plant in Texas. On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was down even further and on track to drop to a 15-week low of 15.9 bcfd on Thursday.
Parched Corpus Christi threatens to cut off water to refineries - Refineries and petrochemical plants in Corpus Christi, Texas, could have their water access cut off by a local utility if an emergency is declared and they don’t slash their usage by 25 percent. Stopping service would be a last resort at industrial sites that go over proposed monthly water allotments and can’t cut back, Nick Winkelmann, chief operating officer of Corpus Christi Water, said Tuesday at a City Council meeting in the Texas refining hub. “If that case is happening and a resolution can’t occur, then we would have to start turning valves and shut the water off to those users,” Winkelmann said. The City Council is working to finalize water curtailment plans for all customers, but the prospect of cutting water off to industrial users in one of the country’s largest petrochemical and refining centers highlights the stark reality facing the Coastal Bend region of South Texas. The crisis also has the attention of leaders across the country as cities debate data centers and other projects that would boost water demand. Corpus Christi Water, which is overseen by the Corpus Christi City Council, serves roughly 500,000 customers across a seven-county region. The city could enter a Level 1 water emergency by September, Winkelmann said at a meeting last month — a threshold triggered when the region has 180 days before water demand outstrips supply. The region’s water supplies have been ravaged by a years-long drought and growing water demands from large industrial users. To lower that demand, Corpus Christi Water officials proposed last month to require 25 percent cuts for all water users if the city declares a Level 1 water emergency. Officials tabled that proposal, directing staff to come up with changes that were presented Tuesday. The Council could vote on whether to approve those new changes in the coming weeks. The outlook now for possible cuts looks different for residents and large industrial users. All residential customers were given a baseline water usage of 7,000 gallons of a month under the previously proposed rules, and the 25 percent cut meant that a household would essentially be allotted 5,250 gallons of water a month. Large industrial users, however, had their baseline water usages calculated based on their average water use from 2022 through 2024, and those baselines were adjusted seasonally, unlike residents. On Tuesday, the City Council voted 7-2 to move forward with a proposed ordinance that would increase residents’ baseline usage to 8,000 gallons a month, or an allotment of 6,000 gallons monthly based on the 25 percent cuts. But the calculations to determine industrial water use baselines remained the same. Changes approved on a preliminary basis Tuesday also removed steep penalties for residents that went over their water allotments. The city ordinance previously set a $500 fine for residents that violated the curtailments, and repeat offenders could have their water shut off for a billing cycle.
Mexico Natural Gas Imports Jump as Early Summer Heat Drives Cooling Demand - Mexico’s natural gas imports have started to ramp up as temperatures warm and cooling demand rises with the onset of summer. NGI chart comparing Agua Dulce, Waha natural gas prices with average US pipeline exports to Mexico from 2023-2026. At a Glance:
Cross-border flows top 7.5 Bcf/d
May imports trail 2024 slightly
Mexican output stagnant
Coal Shipments Rise as Asian LNG Buyers React to Middle East War - A look at the global natural gas and LNG markets by the numbers.
- $18.54/MMBtu: Global shipments of coal for power generation saw a significant bump in April as major Asian natural gas buyers reacted to the extended war in the Middle East, according to Signal Ocean. The shipping analytics firms reported a 6% rise year/year in seaborn coal shipments to 115 Mt in April, driven by Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. In Japan, the world’s second largest buyer of LNG, coal-fired generation rose 17% on a 30-day moving-average while natural gas output fell 10%, according to utility data compiled by Bloomberg. Oil-linked LNG prices have risen by roughly $6/MMBtu, or more than 50%, since the war with Iran began in late February, with NGI calculations showing Brent-linked parity at $18.54 as of May 12 versus about $12 before the conflict.
- 5 LNG carriers: Malaysia’s Petronas has arranged to secure five LNG carriers under 20-year charters through an agreement with its subsidiary, MISC Group. The 174,000-cubic-meter vessels are expected to enter service in 2029 and 2030, which coincides with the ramp up of LNG Canada and potential decisions around a second phase. Petronas has disclosed plans to both focus growth of its domestic assets like Bintulu LNG, but also control a hefty global portfolio by the end of the decade.
- 3 cargos: Golden Pass LNG could ship its third LNG cargo by early June as another ship heads to the Texas facility. After a second loaded ship controlled by ExxonMobil left the terminal on Saturday (May 9), the Barzan controlled by QatarEnergy declared its destination for Golden Pass. The ship is currently rounding the Cape of Good Hope and is estimated to reach the Sabine-Neches Ship Channel by June 2, according to Kpler ship tracking data. Meanwhile, feed gas nominations to Golden Pass have dipped from 325-426 MMcf/d in early May to about 260 MMcf/d as of Wednesday, according to Wood Mackenzie pipeline data.
- 20%: US LNG exports are set to fall about 20% week/week in the week of May 11, according to predictive Kpler data, reflecting softer feed gas nominations and maintenance events weighing on output. The largest declines among named terminals were at Sabine Pass, which is expected to decline 0.19 Mt week/week. Calcasieu Pass and Corpus Christi, each down about 0.14 Mt from the week of May 4, are also expected to contribute to the decline.
LNG Canada Commissioning Progresses as Exports Rise, Flaring Continues - Exports from LNG Canada have continued to reach new milestones as first phase commissioning progresses, but flaring events also persist. At a Glance:
- April shipments topped 1 Mt
- More than 80 cargoes shipped
- Four May alerts issued to communities
When Will AECO Natural Gas Prices Find Support? RBN’s King Gives Clarity -- Click here to listen to the latest episode of NGI’s Hub & Flow featuring RBN Energy’s Martin King, managing director North America and NGI in a deep dive on the Canadian natural gas market. Western Canada is currently a land of stark contrasts: record natural gas production on one side, and a mountain of natural gas with nowhere to go on the other. As AECO basis remains wide, and storage levels continue to climb, Canada is bracing for a summer that looks increasingly volatile for local natural gas producers.King joins the podcast to dissect the structural gridlock currently defining AECO pricing. The discussion circles around why the market may be too optimistic about the coming months, the likelihood of prices slipping even more before the heating season, and how Shell’s acquisition of ARC Resources signals a “vote of confidence” in the basin despite the immediate price pain.
Natural Gas Market Facing Prolonged Supply Disruptions as US, Iran Remain at Odds -- Global commodity prices shot back up Monday as negotiations to end the Iran war continued to falter and the prospects for prolonged oil and natural gas shortages strengthened.
- US maintenance curbs output
- Heat drives Asian buying
- European demand weak
Hammerfest LNG Outage Tests Europe’s LNG Supply Cushion Norway’s Hammerfest LNG export plant is offline after an operational issue and could see several days of repairs as European buyers brace for a competitive summer storage-refilling season. At a Glance:
- Hammerfest outage tightens summer LNG balance
- U.S. LNG remains Europe’s backbone
- Asia competition could lift LNG premiums
Qatar Finally Exports LNG Shipments, but Has No Plans for Other Stranded Cargoes -- Qatar has shipped two LNG cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz over the past week.The deliveries were the first since the Iran war started at the end of February, when QatarEnergy shut down liquefaction operations and halted shipping through the waterway, which has been closed by Iran. Two Qatari liquefaction trains have since been damaged by Iranian attacks.
Trinidad says oil spill adequately dealt with, despite concerns from Venezuela - Jamaica Observer– The Trinidad and Tobago government says it has dealt adequately with an oil spill that had been detected at the start of this month, even as Venezuela complained to the international community that the spill had caused environmental damage in the Gulf of Paria and along coastal areas of Sucre and Delta Amacuro. “Evaluations carried out by Venezuelan authorities show severe risks to mangroves, wetlands, marine fauna and strategic hydrobiological resources for food security and the ecological balance of the region. Likewise, impacts have been recorded on vulnerable species and ecosystems of high environmental sensitivity,” Venezuela said in a statement over the weekend. The South American country said that it had instructed its foreign ministry to immediately request all pertinent information regarding the incident, as well as the corresponding action plan for the mitigation and containment of the spill, as it also demanded “compliance with the obligations established in international environmental law and the urgent adoption of reparation measures for the damage caused”. But in a statement, the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries (MEEI) said that the oil spill detected in the Main Field on May 1 was stopped on the same day, repaired and returned to service the following day. It said that Heritage Petroleum Company Limited (Heritage) had “instantly informed relevant regulatory authorities, including the MEEI, the Trinidad and Tobago Coast Guard, and the Environmental Management Authority (EMA) and that approval was granted by MEEI to use chemical dispersants. “An oil spill trajectory modelling was immediately conducted, which indicated that if left untreated the hydrocarbon material could cross the Trinidad/Venezuelan border in the Gulf of Paria. Immediately upon receiving the approval of the use of the chemical dispersant, it was deployed approximately six to eight 8 nautical miles from the Trinidad/Venezuelan border. “Visual observations confirmed that the dispersant effectively broke up the hydrocarbon. Follow-up inspections using both drones and vessels showed no visible hydrocarbons remaining on the water’s surface,” the MEEi said. It said that the spill was estimated to be 10 barrels of oil and that “daily inspections continue to be made within all operating fields offshore, which have revealed no spill incidents”.
Niger Delta communities demand accountability as oil pollution crisis deepens For nearly 70 years, communities in Nigeria’s Niger Delta have continued to bear the environmental and human cost of oil and gas exploration, even as the region remains the backbone of the nation’s economy. Environmental advocates and community leaders are now raising fresh concerns over what they describe as decades of unresolved pollution, abandoned oil infrastructure and the growing divestment of multinational oil companies from onshore operations without adequate remediation of damaged ecosystems. According to the Health of Mother Earth Foundation (HOMEF), the Niger Delta remains one of the most polluted regions globally, with Nigeria recording at least 589 oil spills in 2024 alone, releasing an estimated 19,000 barrels of crude oil into the environment. The spills, environmentalists say, continue to destroy rivers, farmlands and mangrove forests while threatening livelihoods dependent on fishing and farming. Director of Programmes at HOMEF, Joyce Brown, in a statement ahead of the 2026 Niger Delta Alternatives Convergence (NDAC), lamented the devastating impact of pollution on local communities. She noted that beyond environmental degradation, oil pollution has worsened poverty, damaged public health and eroded the dignity of affected communities. “When we speak of environmental pollution, many tend to overlook the impact on the people. We do not easily think about the people whose farmlands are degraded and cannot produce crops or fisherfolk who return home with empty nets, people, including children, bathing and drinking contaminated water because that is the main source of water available to them,” she said. Brown cited studies linking oil spills in the region to respiratory illnesses, skin diseases, infertility, birth defects and increased infant mortality rates. Traditional rulers have also expressed concern over the continued environmental decline in the region. At the 2024 Niger Delta Alternatives Convergence organised by HOMEF and its partners, the Ibenanaowei of Ekpetiama Kingdom in Bayelsa State, King Bubaraye Dakolo, described the Niger Delta as “one of the most polluted places in the universe”, stressing that decades of oil extraction had altered the social and economic fabric of communities. Environmental groups further criticised what they termed the “hurried divestment” of oil companies from onshore assets without proper decommissioning of ageing infrastructure. They referenced a major spill along the Trans Niger Pipeline in B-Dere community, Gokana Local Government Area of Rivers State, in May 2025, reported as the second major incident on the pipeline within two months. HOMEF and allied organisations warned that ageing pipelines and abandoned facilities remain major sources of recurring pollution across the Niger Delta. The group also raised concerns over continued pollution in Ogoniland, citing incidents in Kpean in August 2025 and Eteo-Eleme in June 2023, which reportedly destroyed farmlands, contaminated water sources and displaced residents. According to Brown, accountability must include the complete decommissioning of obsolete oil infrastructure, restoration of polluted environments and compensation for affected communities. “Accountability means that the people are duly compensated for their lost livelihoods, that binding obligations on the polluters are enforced, and that the era of extractivism without responsibility is brought to an end,” she said.
Oil spill contained after vessel sinking in Lami - MSAF - The Fiji Times - The Maritime Safety Authority of Fiji says the oil spill linked to the sinking of the MV Spirit of Altruism in Lami has been successfully contained. In a statement issued today, MSAF confirmed that monitoring and assessment activities had been completed following the sinking of the vessel on the fringes of Draunibota Bay. MSAF said it worked closely with Fiji Ports Corporation Limited and other relevant stakeholders to coordinate oil spill response measures after the incident. The vessel sank after sustaining damage during severe weather conditions earlier this week. MSAF said it had fulfilled its response and monitoring responsibilities relating to the incident and would continue liaising with stakeholders regarding the removal of the wreck. The incident had raised concerns over possible environmental impacts in the bay area, particularly relating to fuel and oil leakage. However, authorities said containment measures prevented further spread of pollutants into surrounding waters.
UAE-owned tanker leaks some fuel off Oman following Iranian strike (Reuters) - A unit of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said on Wednesday that one of its tankers struck by Iranian drones last week has leaked a small amount of fuel off the coast of Oman, underscoring the ecological risks stemming from the Iran war. Tehran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made navigating the vital shipping corridor a precarious task. Hundreds of vessels remain trapped in the Gulf. ADNOC Logistics & Services (ADNOCLS.AD), opens new tab said it was monitoring the situation concerning its vessel, the M.V. Barakah, and was working "closely with the relevant authorities and specialist response teams." "The ADNOC Logistics & Services vessel Barakah remains at anchor off the coast of Oman after being impacted by two Iranian drones on May 4," a company spokesperson said. "A small amount of what is understood to be bunker fuel was unfortunately released as a result of the incident." The spokesperson did not say how much fuel was believed to have leaked. At the time of the attack, ADNOC L&S said no crew members were injured and the tanker was not carrying any cargo. Oman's Maritime Security Centre did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Aerial images from Copernicus' Sentinel satellites on May 7 and 9 showed a white streak trailing from a vessel identified by TankerTrackers.com as the M.V. Barakah near Oman's Musandam Peninsula. "The white trail ... is definitely consistent with oil and is clearly coming out of the tanker," said Louis Goddard, co-founder of consultancy Data Desk, which focuses on climate and commodities. The slick was no longer visible in more recent imagery, Elizabeth C. Atwood, Earth observation senior scientist at Plymouth Marine Laboratory, told Reuters. Separately last week, satellite images showed a suspected oil spill covering dozens of square kilometres of sea near Iran's main oil hub of Kharg Island. Iran's top environmental official said on Tuesday it was likely caused by a tanker dumping waste water and not a leak from oil facilities.
Oil spill in Gulf likely caused by tanker dump, Iranian official says (Reuters) - Iran's top environmental official said on Tuesday that a suspected oil spill in the Gulf near Iran's Kharg Island was likely caused by a tanker dumping waste water and not a leak from oil facilities. The suspected oil spill covering dozens of square kilometres of sea near Iran's main oil hub of Kharg Island has been seen on satellite imagery. The likely spill - appearing on images as a grey and white slick - covered waters to the west of the 8-kilometre (5-mile) long island, pictures from Copernicus’s Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 satellites showed on May 6-8. But Iranian Vice-President Shina Ansari said: "Our monitoring results show that this spill was caused by the discharge of ballast water contaminated with substances from a non-Iranian tanker, and no oil leaks have been reported from (Iran's) pipelines or oil facilities," state media reported. Louis Goddard, co-founder of consultancy Data Desk, which focuses on climate and commodities, said earlier that the images likely showed an oil slick, which he said was potentially the largest to occur since the start of the U.S.-Israel war against Iran 70 days ago. Iran’s Oil Terminals Company said on Sunday inspections had found no evidence of leaks from storage tanks, pipelines, loading facilities or tankers operating near the island.
OPEC Output Plunges After Hormuz Disruption - WANA – The latest monthly report by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) paints an unprecedented picture of turmoil in the global oil market, with crude production collapsing across major producers following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report released on May 13, 2026, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production fell by 651,000 barrels per day in April, reaching 6.316 million barrels per day — the kingdom’s lowest production level since the 1990 Persian Gulf War. Secondary-source data cited by OPEC showed Saudi output declining from 7.726 million barrels per day in March to 6.768 million in April. Since the start of the Iran war in February 2026, Saudi production has dropped by roughly 42 percent. The decline was not limited to Saudi Arabia. Total production from OPEC’s 12 member states fell sharply to 18.983 million barrels per day in April, compared with 20.710 million in March and 28.65 million in February. Energy analysts described the figures as OPEC’s lowest production level in 35 years. Combined output from the wider OPEC+ alliance also dropped by 1.74 million barrels per day month-on-month, reaching 33.19 million barrels per day. Kuwait recorded one of the steepest declines among member states. Its oil production plunged to around 600,000 barrels per day in April, less than a quarter of its pre-war level. OPEC data showed Kuwaiti production had stood at 1.16 million barrels per day in March and 2.582 million in February, meaning the country has lost more than 75 percent of its production capacity within two months. The organization also revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026. OPEC now expects world oil demand to increase by 1.17 million barrels per day this year to 106.3 million barrels per day, around 200,000 barrels lower than its previous estimate. At the same time, OPEC raised its outlook for 2027, forecasting global demand to rise by 1.54 million barrels per day next year to 107.9 million barrels per day. The report comes amid a historic development inside the organization itself, as United Arab Emirates officially announced it would leave OPEC starting May 2026 after nearly six decades of membership, following prolonged disputes with Saudi Arabia over production quotas. Analysts say the UAE’s departure represents one of the most serious blows to OPEC unity since the organization’s founding, particularly as the global oil market faces supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and extreme price volatility linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
World oil market 'severely undersupplied,' to stay in deficit until Q4: IEA | S&P Global - The world is facing a massive 6 million b/d oil supply shortage that could keep markets tight well beyond 2026 even if the war in Iran is resolved swiftly, the International Energy Agency said May 13. The Paris-based agency has overhauled its market outlook in light of the conflict, which it said has already created a cumulative supply loss of more than 1 billion barrels and could reduce global production by 3.9 million b/d across 2026. On the demand side, the IEA now expects global oil demand to fall by 420,000 b/d to 104 million b/d over the full year, a decline more than five times the scale it projected last month. Before the conflict, it expected that annual demand would grow by 850,000 b/d. From a starting point projecting a major oil supply glut in the first half of the year, the IEA now sees a 1.8 million b/d production shortfall through 2026, and expects the market to remain in deficit until the final quarter of the year. "The market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of Q3 2026, even assuming the conflict ends by early June," the IEA said in its closely watched monthly oil outlook. Should the disruption last longer, however, the cumulative supply deficit could feasibly double in some scenarios, the IEA said. Analysts at S&P Global Energy CERA see the crude market in a 1.2 million b/d deficit through 2026, but expect a deeper demand loss of nearly 2 million b/d. The OPEC secretariat, which has maintained a more bullish consumption view, said in its latest forecast May 13 that global oil demand would grow a "healthy" 1.2 million b/d in 2026 and another 1.5 million b/d in 2027, citing the resilience of the world economy. Demand toll Early demand destruction has been partly offset by stock releases, panic-buying and government subsidies in many of the developing countries particularly exposed to price shocks. However, as governments run out of options to cushion the impact of the crisis, global demand is now taking a bigger hit, the IEA said. In the second quarter, demand is now on track to fall by 2.45 million b/d from 2025 levels, with OECD countries accounting for 38% of the consumption loss, according to the agency. Petrochemical feedstocks have so far seen the steepest contraction, accounting for roughly half of the 2026 demand downgrade. Consumption of jet fuel/kerosene has also been badly hit, and the full-year forecast was cut by 210,000 b/d from the prewar outlook, the IEA said. In contrast, there has been a "relatively modest" impact on road fuels, although that could still deteriorate. In February and March, global gasoil and gasoline deliveries were 300,000 b/d higher than in 2025, the IEA reported, noting potential precautionary buying in markets such as the US and China. However, such behavioral patterns can only provide short-term uplift. In the US, drivers now face gasoline prices roughly 40% higher than they were pre-war, while global oil inventories were depleted by 250 million barrels over March and April. In the refining sector, crude processing is forecast to fall by 4.5 million b/d in Q2, transferring further tightness from the crude markets to fuel. Crude imports have been markedly lower in China, Japan, South Korea and India, signaling run cuts. On a macroeconomic scale, slower growth risks dragging on consumer and industrial consumption, and potentially straining economies subsidizing imports. The IEA outlook now assumes global GDP growth of 2.9% in 2026, down from a previous forecast of 3.4%. On the supply side, output fell by a further 1.8 million b/d in April, led by a 14.4 million b/d production loss from the Middle East Gulf. As a result, global output in Q2 is on track to fall below 100 million b/d for the first time in four years, the IEA said. Using its East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia increased its Red Sea loadings by 900,000 b/d to 5.3 million b/d in April, while higher pipeline deliveries boosted exports from the UAE's port of Fujairah by 430,000 b/d. To restore Gulf production more significantly, however, trade exports will need to first normalize for at least two to three months, the agency suggested. Outside the Middle East, the US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Venezuela have all increased production, adding 3.5 million b/d to Atlantic Basin crude exports from February. The IEA duly upgraded its Americas supply forecast by 600,000 b/d from its pre-war estimate, and now sees some 1.5 million b/d of regional supply growth in 2026. Russia also increased its crude exports in April by 250,000 b/d from the previous month, but the shift was partly driven by Ukrainian attacks on its refineries. Products exports were down by 340,000 b/d, falling to the lowest on IEA records. In the longer run, rebuilding depleted oil inventories could require an extra 1 million b/d of supply growth for the next three years, the agency said. As of May 8, its member countries had released 164 million barrels of a planned 400 million barrel stock release, while the organization has said it could sanction more releases if needed. With little clarity over the trajectory of the Middle East conflict, forecasters have struggled to make definitive projections on the state of the market. Should a peace deal materialize, global demand could still swing back to growth towards the end of the year, while the level of infrastructure damage contributes to "significant uncertainty" around the new forecast, the IEA warned. The IEA and OPEC, have diverged in their recent assessments of the market, with the oil exporting organization maintaining a more bullish view on demand. OPEC announced a rare meeting between its Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais and IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol on May 12, which it said involved discussions on the global energy outlook and commitments to a stronger dialogue. The IEA announced it will defer its annual long-term oil report, Oil 2026, which was due to cover the period out to 2031, from its scheduled release in June. It has yet to specify a new publication date.
Aramco Expects Oil, Natural Gas Supply Chain Disruptions for Months Even if Hormuz Reopens Soon - About 600 vessels, including those carrying oil, LNG and other products, are trapped in the Persian Gulf as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to Saudi Aramco. At a Glance:
- 2–5 vessels transiting daily
- 100 million b/d of crude cut
- Natural gas output stable
IEA Revises 2026 Forecast: Global Oil Supply To Plunge Below Demand This Year - Global oil demand is set to exceed supply in the current year amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, reversing previous projections of a surplus, OilPrice reports citing the latest IEA data. "With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Middle East Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 million (barrels per day) of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock," said the agency, which advises industrialized countries. According to the May 2026 Oil Market Report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply is projected to fall by 3.9 million bpd across 2026, with ~10.5 million bpd of Gulf oil production currently offline. Consumption is also under pressure due to the war as price spikes lead to demand destruction and slower economic growth: Global demand is also forecast to contract by 420,000 bpd compared to a previous forecast of an 80,000 bpd drop due to surging prices, slow economic growth and widespread flight cancellations, with oil demand still set to outpace supply by 1.78 million bpd in the current year. "Our latest supply and demand estimates imply that the market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of 3Q26, even assuming the conflict ends by early June," the Paris-based agency said, adding that the second-quarter deficit will be as stark as 6 million bpd. Global crude runs are expected to plunge by 1.6 million bpd to an average of 82.3 mb/d for the year as operators face infrastructure damage and severe feedstock shortages, with refinery throughput expected to fall by 4.5 million bpd in the second quarter alone. Operators in the Middle East and Asia are battling significant damage to energy infrastructure and reduced availability of crude feedstocks, largely stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The heaviest cuts have been in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific, heavily impacting naphtha, LPG and jet fuel production. According to the IEA, global oil inventories are projected to fall by an average of 8.5 mb/d during the second quarter of 2026, with the drawdown largely due to a decline in crude output from countries including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE. The steepest inventory draws are projected to occur in May and June, helping to keep Brent crude prices elevated at ~$106 per barrel. Whereas the release of a total of 400 million barrels by 32 IEA members is expected to provide a temporary buffer, the market will still face a significant deficit that could keep prices high through the year.
Oil prices surge 4% after US-Iran peace hopes fade - Oil prices witnessed a significant jump in international market as the United States and Iran failed to reach a peace agreement while the energy supplies may continue to face disruption due to restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude reached $99.98 per barrel, up $4.56 or 4.78% from previous levels, while Brent crude climbed to $105.50, rising $4.21, an increase of 4.16%, according to a portal that monitors oil prices. Middle Eastern Murban crude also moved higher, trading at $98.82 per barrel, marking a $2.16 gain, or 2.23%. Oil Prices Surge 4 After Us Iran Peace Hopes Fade Meanwhile, natural gas prices experienced upward momentum, reaching $2.829 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), an increase of 7.2 cents, or 2.61%. Gasoline followed suit, with prices rising $0.092 to $3.619 per gallon, reflecting a 2.61% increase. The oil and energy prices moved up after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s most recent reply to Washington’s peace proposal, describing it as “totally unacceptable” amid escalating Middle East tensions. Posting on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said he had reviewed the Iranian response and strongly disagreed with it. “I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘representatives’. I don’t like it — totally unacceptable,” he wrote. The statement comes as the US awaits further diplomatic progress with Iran following weeks of heightened military tensions and fragile ceasefire efforts in the Gulf region. Iran had submitted its reply to a US-backed proposal aimed at ending the regional conflict, with mediation efforts involving Pakistan playing a key role. Iranian state media outlet IRNA reported that the current phase of talks would mainly focus on halting the ongoing hostilities.
WTI at $98 as Iran War Negotiations Stall-- Oil futures climbed Monday after ceasefire negotiations aimed at ending the U.S-Iran conflict failed again, with both sides dismissing each other's proposals, while disruptions to oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz continued to tighten global supplies. On Monday, Reuters reported that a survey conducted by the news agency showed OPEC's crude production fell by 830,000 bpd, the steepest decline in more than two decades, which also fueled concerns over tightening supplies, reinforcing bullish sentiment across the energy complex. Separately, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said over the weekend the Trump administration is weighing options to curb rising fuel costs, as retail fuel prices climbed amid ongoing tensions tied to the Iran conflict. Wright said the administration is "open to all ideas" aimed at lowering prices at the pump for U.S. consumers, including a temporary suspension of the federal gasoline tax. U.S. retail gasoline prices nationwide climbed to $4.581 gallon in the week ended May 4, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the highest level since the Iran conflict started. However, market participants remained focused on the Iran war developments, as attention also turned to U.S. President Donald Trump's planned visit to China this week for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The agenda is expected to center on bilateral economic relations as well as the Iran war situation, given China's role as the largest buyer of Iranian oil despite U.S. sanctions. The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract climbed $2.50 to $97.92 bbl, while the July ICE Brent futures contract increased $2.87 to $104.16 bbl. June RBOB gasoline futures advanced $0.0726 to $3.5993 gallon, the front-month ULSD contract increased $0.0823 to $3.9814 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.041 points to 97.825 against a basket of currencies.
Oil prices settle higher after Trump says Iran ceasefire "on life support" (Reuters) - Oil prices settled almost 3% higher on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support," leaving the Strait of Hormuz largely closed with no clear end in sight to the war. Brent crude futures settled up $2.92, or 2.88%, at $104.21 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate settled at $98.07 a barrel, up $2.65, or 2.78%. Brent reached a session high of $105.99 and WTI hit a peak of $100.37. Last week, both benchmarks recorded 6% weekly losses on hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict that would allow oil to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. But on Monday, Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support," after dismissing Tehran's response to a U.S. peace proposal as "stupid." Days after Washington floated a proposal aimed at reopening negotiations, Iran on Sunday released a response focused on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, where U.S. ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also demanded compensation for war damage, emphasized its sovereignty over the strait, and called on the U.S. to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and remove a ban on Iranian oil sales. Within hours, Trump dismissed Tehran's offer in a social media post as "totally unacceptable." "The narrative has changed again from de-escalatory to escalatory in a matter of a few days and oil markets respond to it - although only modestly," said Florence Schmit, an energy strategist at Rabobank. Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday and is expected to discuss Iran among other topics with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to U.S. officials. "I don't think anyone is looking for the U.S. to up the ante anytime in the balance of the week as long as this China, Trump meeting is going on," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. The world has lost about 1 billion barrels of oil over the past two months and energy markets will take time to stabilize even if flows resume, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on Sunday. Saudi Arabian crude oil exports to China are expected to fall further in June after buyers cut nominations because of costly prices linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict and lower supplies, trade sources told Reuters. OPEC oil output dropped further in April to the lowest in more than two decades, a Reuters survey found, as the war effectively closed the strait and forced export cuts. Crude output by the 12-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in April fell by 830,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 20.04 million bpd, the survey found. March's figure was revised 700,000 bpd lower due to a change in the Saudi estimate. Meanwhile, three tankers carrying crude exited the strait last week and on Sunday with trackers switched off, Kpler shipping data showed. One was loaded with Iraqi crude bound for Vietnam. Japan's industry ministry said a tanker carrying Azerbaijani crude oil was set to arrive as early as Tuesday, the first cargo of oil received from there since the Iran war began. JPMorgan analysts expect oil prices to remain in the low $100s for most of the rest of this year, averaging $97 for 2026 with no quick normalization once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
Oil prices jump on renewed US-Iran tensions --Oil prices surged more than 3% after renewed uncertainty in negotiations between the United States and Iran raised concerns over global supply stability and pushed geopolitical risk back into focus. Brent crude futures rose by $3.47, or 3.3%, reaching $107.68 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed $3.54, or 3.6%, to $101.61. Both benchmarks had already gained nearly 3% in the previous trading session, News.Az reports, citing Al Jazeera. Market analysts said the latest move was driven by stalled diplomatic efforts and rising tensions between Washington and Tehran over proposals aimed at reducing conflict in the Middle East. One analyst noted that both sides had rejected each other’s negotiation terms, contributing to renewed instability in energy markets.Concerns over supply disruptions also intensified following warnings about the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route. Energy industry leaders cautioned that any disruption in the area could significantly affect global supply flows and delay market stabilization.Analysts further suggested that oil prices could react sharply to future developments, with potential declines if a breakthrough deal is reached, or further increases if tensions escalate or shipping routes face disruption.The situation highlights how geopolitical risks continue to play a central role in global energy pricing, particularly when tensions involve major oil-producing regions.
Brent & WTI top $100 with U.S.-Iran diplomacy at a standstill; CPI shows oil shock -- Oil prices climbed on Tuesday, with both crude benchmarks topping $100 a barrel. The advance came amid an impasse between the U.S. and Iran, denting hopes for a swift end to the war. A key U.S. inflation report also showed an outsized impact of surging oil prices due to the Middle East conflict. At 15:50 ET (19:50 GMT), Brent crude futures expiring in July, the global oil benchmark, rose 3.4% to $107.72 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures expiring in June advanced 4.3% to $102.29 a barrel. Market sentiment remained dominated by fears that the more than two-month old war in the Middle East could further tighten global supply, particularly after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest response to an American peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.” He described Tehran’s reply as “a piece of garbage,” adding that an ongoing ceasefire between the warring parties was now at its weakest point. Iran defended its position on Monday, saying its counteroffer was focused on ending the war, lifting an ongoing U.S. naval blockade, and restoring shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has also demanded compensation for war damage, removal of sanctions, and recognition of its sovereignty over the strait. A CNN report late Monday said Trump is seriously considering resuming major combat operations against Iran as peace negotiations dithered.The comments renewed concerns over the future of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and fuel supply passes. Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser warned this week that even if the waterway reopened immediately, it could still take months for global oil flows to normalize. Oil retreated temporarily last week on expectations that Washington and Tehran may be moving closer to a diplomatic breakthrough, but those hopes have since largely faded. The United Kingdom on Tuesday said it would be contributing drones, jets, and a warship as part of any future defensive mission to secure safe shipping through the strait. ’Gusher of oil like you’ve never had before’ "We don’t have to rush anything," Trump said on Iran on Tuesday. "We have a blockade which allows them no money. It’s a very simple thing: we cannot let them have a nuclear weapon — because they’d use it," the president told radio talk show host Sid Rosenberg. Later, before boarding his flight to a three-day trip to China, Trump told reporters that the U.S. would "only" be "making a good deal." When asked what would be his redline to end the ceasefire, the president said "we’re going to see." "One way or the other, it’s going to work out very well. It’s going to work out very well. I think you’re going to have so much oil, you’re going to have a gusher of oil like you’ve never had before. So when oil goes up a little bit, I thought it would go up much more," Trump said. "If you go back three, four months ago, we were contemplating, we assumed oil would go much higher. Yesterday, it was at $99. And if you think about it, I would have taken that all day long, because it’s very simple: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. They will not have a nuclear weapon," he added. The president also said he would be discussing Iran with Chinese President Xi Jinping on his trip, adding that the Asian nation had "been relatively good" about the war. "You look at the blockade, no problems. They get a lot of their oil from that area, we’ve had no problem. And he’s been a friend of mine. He’s been somebody that we get along with... this is going to be a very exciting trip. A lot of good things are going to happen," Trump said. China is Iran’s largest oil buyer and retains significant diplomatic leverage with Tehran. Investors were also closely watching U.S. inflation data on Tuesday. As per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline consumer price index (CPI) in April ticked up 0.6% M/M and 3.8% Y/Y, compared to consensus estimates of 0.6% and 3.7%. The 3.8% reading is the highest since a 4% rise in May 2023. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4% M/M and 2.8% Y/Y, versus estimates of 0.3% and 2.7%. The inflation data confirmed that surging oil prices due to the Iran war were indeed boosting U.S. consumer prices. The index for energy prices climbed 3.8% M/M in April, accounting for over 40% of the monthly headline CPI growth. However, the energy index did decelerate significantly from March’s 10.9% M/M increase. On a Y/Y basis, the energy index soared 17.9%, its highest since September 2022. The index for gasoline prices advanced 5.4% on a M/M basis in April, much slower than March’s 21.2% gain. On a Y/Y basis, the gasoline index jumped 28.4%, its highest since July 2022. "The Treasury complex’s ability to withstand elevated oil prices is being threatened by...higher fuel charges, driving accelerating inflation. And every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the fixed-income space is under greater stress as it lifts its cost-pressure expectations while demanding a tighter stance from the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, May’s CPI is poised to come in north of 4%, reflecting energy inputs beginning to broaden out to the overall economy," José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said. The April CPI report comes at a time of transition for the Fed, with incumbent chair Jerome Powell’s term coming to an end in three days. He is expected to be replaced by President Donald Trump’s pick Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor. Traders raised their expectations of interest rate hikes in September, October, and December after the CPI report, the CME FedWatch tool showed.
JPMorgan sees oil prices holding in low $100s despite Hormuz reopening --Global crude oil prices are likely to remain in the low $100s per barrel mark for an extended period due to persistent supply disruptions and logistical bottlenecks linked to tensions in West Asia, according to a report by JPMorgan Chase & Co. According to the investment bank's revised assessment, oil prices are expected to remain in the low-$100s range for most of the year, even if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal operations in the coming weeks. According to the report, disruptions in shipping, refinery operations and tanker availability are expected to continue weighing on global energy supply chains, preventing a quick correction in prices. The global brokerage has projected that Brent crude could average around $97 per barrel in 2026, suggesting that energy markets may continue to face tight supply conditions over the medium term. The report further noted that reopening of the Strait alone would not immediately stabilise the market, as logistical challenges across the broader oil transport network are likely to persist for months. Meanwhile, oil prices surged again on Tuesday, with international benchmark Brent crude trading above $105 per barrel, up about 1 per cent, after US President Donald Trump criticised Iran’s response to Washington’s peace proposal, raising fresh concerns over regional stability and its impact on global oil flows. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed close to the $100-per-barrel mark, registering a gain of nearly 1 per cent. Moreover, reports showed that crude output by OPEC declined by 830,000 barrels per day in April to 20.04 million barrels per day. In addition, domestic equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty came under sharp pressure, declining by around 1 per cent.
Oil settles higher as hopes of peace in the Middle East dwindle (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher for the third consecutive session on Tuesday as stark differences between the U.S. and Iran over a proposal to end the war in the Middle East raised concerns that supply disruptions upending the global oil market are likely to be prolonged. Brent crude futures gained $3.56, or 3.42%, to settle at $107.77 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures closed up $4.11, or 4.19%, at $102.18. Both benchmarks had climbed nearly 3% on Monday. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that ceasefire talks with Iran were on "life support," pointing to disagreements over Tehran's demands of a cessation of hostilities on all fronts, the removal of a U.S. naval blockade, the resumption of Iranian oil sales and compensation for war damage. Iran also emphasised its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows. "Markets are doubting that a peace deal is within reach," The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Tuesday said it now assumes the strait will be effectively closed through late May, leading to much larger losses of Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies than its prior forecasts. The agency had earlier expected the waterway would be shut through late April. Even after flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz, it will take at least until late 2026 or early 2027 for oil output and trade patterns to return to pre-conflict levels, the EIA said. Disruptions linked to the near-closure of the strait have prompted producers to curtail exports, with a Reuters survey on Monday showing OPEC oil output in April fell to its lowest level in more than two decades. The EIA estimates 10.5 million barrels per day of output were lost during April across the Middle East due to the strait closure, limiting exports. Other sources have pegged the supply losses much higher. J.P. Hanson, global head of oil and gas at Houlihan Lokey, said the conflict has created a 14 million bpd supply gap. "The market now faces an aggregate billion-barrel deficit, compounded by drained strategic reserves and limited capacity to replace lost volumes," Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned on Monday that disruptions to oil exports through the strait could delay a return to market stability until 2027, with the loss of about 100 million barrels of oil per week. Prolonged loss of Middle Eastern supply is forcing countries around the world to burn through their oil and gas stockpiles. The EIA now expects global oil inventories will fall about 2.6 million bpd this year, much more than its previous forecast of a 300,000 bpd decline. In the United States, crude stocks were estimated to have dropped by about 2.1 million barrels last week, an extended Reuters poll of analysts showed. U.S. fuel inventories are also expected to have declined last week, the poll showed. "Global oil balances continue to tighten daily with the loss of supply easily exceeding the price-induced reduction in demand," "This keeps us in a bullish frame of mind where nearby crude futures appear to possess another $10-12 per barrel on the upside before such lofty pricing forces some significant concessions on the part of the U.S., Iran or both."
Oil prices dip ahead of Trump-Xi talks amid Iran tensions -- Oil prices declined on 13 May amid uncertainty over a tenuous ceasefire in the Middle East, as US President Donald Trump prepares to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in China. At 06:30 GMT, Brent crude futures had decreased by $1.47, or 1.4%, to reach $106.30 a barrel (bbl), reported Reuters. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures had declined by $1.41, or 1.4%, settling at $100.77/bbl. On Tuesday, oil prices increased by more than 3%, building on previous gains as the likelihood of a durable US-Iran ceasefire diminished. This reduced the chances of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles around 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas volumes. Since late February, when the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran and Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, both benchmarks have mostly remained near or above the $100/bbl level. President Trump remarked that he does not foresee needing China’s involvement to resolve the conflict with Iran, despite the deteriorating hopes for a lasting peace. The US-China discussions are set to take place later in the week in Beijing. Despite sanctions pressure from the Trump administration, China remains the largest purchaser of Iranian oil. The ongoing conflict with Iran is affecting the US economy, the largest in the world, particularly as increased oil prices push fuel costs higher. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates’ exit from OPEC as of May 2026 is affecting future production figures in energy reports. Recent data highlights an estimated reduction of 10.5 million barrels per day across several Middle Eastern countries. The US Energy Information Administration anticipates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed through May, with normal traffic resuming by June and shipments normalising later in the year. Oil price movements have closely tracked changes in global inventory levels. Brent crude prices peaked at $138/bbl in early April, with average prices at $117/bbl for the month. Forecasts indicate that retail gasoline prices will average $3.88/gal in 2026 and slightly decrease in 2027. The US propane inventory surplus, due to supply growth outpacing demand, is expected to persist, with increased exports to Asia set to compensate for reduced Middle Eastern shipments. In April, US LNG export capacity grew by approximately 900 million cubic feet per day due to project expansions. During the first quarter of 2026, US-marketed natural gas production averaged 120.2 billion cubic feet per day, a 4% increase from the same period the previous year. Output is expected to continue rising through 2027, supported by associated gas connected to elevated crude oil prices.
WTI Holds Gains Despite Biggest SPR Drawdown In 45 Year History, Production Jumped --Oil prices are higher this morning (extending its 8%-plus surge of the last three days) as Middle East tensions simmer and global stockpiles shrink at a record pace. WTI topped $103 and Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel, erasing its retreat earlier on Wednesday, after the IEA said global observed oil inventories declined at a rate of about 4 million barrels a day in March and April. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its output sank to the lowest level since 1990. “With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period,” the Paris-based IEA said in its Oil Market Report. The market will remain “severely undersupplied” until October even if the conflict ends next month, the agency said. For obvious reasons, this morning's official inventory and supply data (for the US) is now top of mind. API :
- Crude -2.2mm
- Cushing
- Gasoline +502k
- Distillates -319k
DOE:
- Crude -4.3mm (-2.5mm exp)
- Cushing -1.7mm
- Gasoline -4.08mm - 13th weekly draw in a row
- Distillates +190k - first build in 7 weeks
Crude stocks saw a bigger than expected drawdown last week (the third week in a row) as Cushing inventories drop and while Distillates saw a small build, Gasoline stocks plunged... again... Graphics Source: Bloomberg. The drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve continue to accelerate. The 8.6mm barrel draw was the largest on record... US crude production jumped last week... Crude exports jumped back up to near the 6 million barrel a day mark, rising 742,000 barrels to around 5.5 million barrels a day. Anything above 4 million barrels a day is generally considered robust demand and in recent weeks the US sets its all-time record for crude exports as the Iran war disrupts flows globally. Imports of Venezuelan crude soared to 598,000 barrels a day, the highest since early 2019 when the US first imposed a de facto ban on oil imports from the country. Refinery runs bounced back in a big way and are now just shy of levels seen at the same time last year as maintenance season wraps up. Valero Port Arthur was finally able to restart its largest crude unit, following a end-March fire, helping to bolster crude processing in the region. WTI extended gains, topping $103.50 this morning, as Martijn Rats, commodities strategist at Morgan Stanley, told clients in a Monday note: "That this is the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the oil market is neither an exaggeration nor controversial."
Oil settles lower on US rate hike fears; investors watch Trump-Xi meeting (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Wednesday as investors worried about possible U.S. interest rate hikes and awaited updates on a high-stakes summit in Beijing between U.S. President Donald Trump and China's Xi Jinping. Brent crude futures closed down $2.14, or 2%, to $105.63 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures fell $1.16, or 1.14%, to $101.02. Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said on Wednesday the U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates if inflation pressures do not abate, a sign that the war has begun to weigh on the U.S. economy. Higher oil prices have pushed up fuel costs and economists expect to see effects in the months ahead. U.S. producer prices in April posted their biggest increase in four years, boosted by soaring costs for goods and services, the latest sign of accelerating inflation during the war with Iran. In April, U.S. consumer prices rose sharply for a second straight month, producing the largest annual increase in inflation in nearly three years. Higher interest rates increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which could slow economic growth and reduce oil demand. Trump landed in Beijing on Wednesday, a day after saying he did not think he would need China's help to end the war, even as prospects for a lasting peace deal weakened and Tehran tightened its grip over the Strait of Hormuz. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite sanctions pressure from the Trump administration. Trump is scheduled to meet Xi on Thursday and Friday. "There is likely to be some structural tightness (in the oil market) for at least the balance of this year," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah. OPEC on Wednesday lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth in 2026. The International Energy Agency said global oil supply would not meet total demand this year as the war wreaks havoc on Middle East production. U.S. crude stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels last week, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1-million-barrel draw, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Gasoline stocks fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9-million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 0.2 million barrels versus expectations for a 2.7-million-barrel drop. The data briefly boosted oil futures. On Tuesday, oil prices rose more than 3% as hopes for a lasting U.S.-Iran ceasefire faded, dimming prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Wednesday that Kuwait had "unlawfully" attacked an Iranian boat and detained four Iranian citizens in the Gulf. He added that Tehran demands their release and reserves the right to respond. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said he believes progress is being made in negotiations with Iran to end hostilities, after Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal as unacceptable.
World Oil Prices Hold Above $105 as Iran Tensions and Trump-Xi Summit Drive Volatility — World oil prices remained elevated above $105 per barrel on Thursday, May 14, 2026, as ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continued to support the market even as investors awaited outcomes from the high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Brent crude, the global benchmark, traded near $105.50 per barrel in early European trading, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, hovered around $101 per barrel. Both contracts have stayed in elevated territory throughout 2026, reflecting persistent supply concerns and strong global demand despite economic uncertainties in some regions. The primary driver remains the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which nearly 20% of global oil supply flows. Since military actions began in late February, shipping traffic has been severely restricted, leading to significant supply disruptions and a sharp drawdown in global inventories. Analysts at S&P Global estimate that inventories have fallen by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, pushing prices higher and creating a risk premium in the market. The Trump-Xi summit has added another layer of uncertainty and potential relief. Trump is pressing China, Iran's largest oil customer, to use its influence to help stabilize energy flows. Any positive developments from Beijing could ease pressure on prices, but analysts caution that a quick resolution to the Hormuz situation remains unlikely. "The market is pricing in prolonged disruption," said one senior energy trader. "Even optimistic scenarios suggest it will take time for flows to normalize." U.S. production has provided some buffer. Domestic output remains near record levels, helping to offset some global tightness. However, OPEC+ members have maintained disciplined production cuts, limiting additional supply to the market. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers continue to prioritize price stability over volume in the current environment. Demand remains robust despite higher prices. Strong economic activity in Asia, particularly in India and parts of Southeast Asia, has supported consumption. China's stimulus measures have helped stabilize industrial activity, though the country's overall economic recovery remains uneven. Global oil demand is projected to average around 103 million barrels per day in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency, with transportation fuels and petrochemicals driving growth. For American consumers, the impact is noticeable at the pump. National average gasoline prices have climbed above $4.00 per gallon in many regions, adding pressure on household budgets ahead of the summer driving season. Refiners have warned that prolonged high crude costs could lead to further increases if inventory levels tighten further. Energy companies have benefited from the elevated price environment. Major producers have reported strong earnings, with many using the windfall to pay down debt, increase dividends and invest in low-carbon technologies. Oilfield service companies have also seen renewed demand, though the focus remains on efficiency and capital discipline rather than aggressive expansion. The Trump administration has used the situation to push for increased domestic production and streamlined permitting for energy projects. Officials argue that boosting U.S. output can help stabilize global markets and reduce reliance on foreign supplies. However, environmental groups and some Democrats in Congress have criticized the approach, calling for faster transition to renewable energy sources. Longer-term forecasts suggest prices could remain elevated through the remainder of 2026. Standard Chartered and other banks project Brent averaging between $100 and $110 per barrel for the year, assuming the Hormuz situation persists into the third quarter. A full resolution could bring prices back toward $80-$90, but most analysts see limited downside risk in the near term. Investors have responded with caution. Energy stocks have outperformed broader markets in 2026 but remain sensitive to any diplomatic breakthroughs or sudden supply increases. Volatility in oil futures has increased, with traders positioning for potential swings around the Trump-Xi meetings and other geopolitical developments. The situation also highlights the interconnected nature of global energy markets. Europe, still recovering from earlier energy shocks, has increased imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas and other alternatives. Asia's reliance on Middle Eastern crude makes it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the region. As the Trump-Xi summit continues, any signals regarding Iran or energy cooperation could move markets significantly. For now, the combination of tight supply, strong demand and geopolitical risk keeps oil prices firmly in elevated territory, affecting everything from gasoline prices to inflation expectations worldwide.
Oil prices fall as Iran gives green light to vessels crossing Strait of Hormuz — Oil prices dipped on Thursday after Iran’s state media said about 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours while the semiofficial Fars news agency cited a source saying Iran had begun allowing transit for some Chinese vessels. Meanwhile, the White House, speaking of US President Donald Trump’s meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping, said both leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy. Xi said the “rejuvenation of China” and “Make America Great Again” can go hand in hand. Easing from an earlier high of $107.13 a barrel, Brent crude oil futures were down 60c, or 0.6%, to $105.03 a barrel at 14.22 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 52c, or 0.5%, to $100.50. Both contracts fell on Wednesday as investors worried about possible US interest rate hikes as higher fuel prices spur inflationary pressures. Brent crude futures lost more than $2 a barrel, while WTI futures dropped more than $1. Xi expressed interest in purchasing more US oil to reduce China’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, according to the White House. China, never a big buyer of US crude, has not imported any since May 2025 due to a 20% import tariff imposed during the trade war. The Strait of Hormuz, a key energy gateway, has been largely shut since the Iran war broke out at the end of February. Iran appears to have tightened its control over the strait, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the region. Before the Fars report, a Chinese supertanker carrying 2-million barrels of Iraqi crude sailed through the strait on Wednesday after being stranded in the Gulf for more than two months.
Oil prices hover around $100 after White House says Trump and Xi discussed Strait of Hormuz - Oil prices hovered around $100 on Thursday, after the White House said President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open. International benchmark Brent crude futures for July rose 9 cents to close at $105.72 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for June added 9 cents to settle at $101.17 per barrel. “The two sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” a White House official said in a statement Thursday. “President Xi also made clear China’s opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use.” Xi also expressed interest in buying U.S. oil, the White House official said. However, Chinese state media did not mention any dicussion of Hormuz or oil purchases. Trump and Xi “exchanged views on major international and regional issues, such as the Middle East situation,” according to state-owned Xinhua. OPEC and the International Energy Agency on Tuesday published their latest updates on how the Iran war has impacted the oil market. OPEC cut its demand growth estimates for 2026 to about 1.2 million barrels per day, from 1.4 million bpd previously, in its latest monthly update. The cartel’s production fell by 1.7 million bpd in April and has declined more than 30%, or 9.7 million bpd since the start of the Iran war in late February. OPEC’s latest update is expected to be the last one to include data from the United Arab Emirates, which exited the cartel on May 1. “More than ten weeks after the war in the Middle East began, mounting supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz are depleting global oil inventories at a record pace,” the IEA said. With more than 14 million bpd of supply cut, the overall loss from Gulf producers is now over a billion barrels, the IEA said, adding that greater price volatility is likely as peak summer demand approaches. “The duration of elevated fuel prices remains a subject of intense discussion and is closely tied to ongoing geopolitical developments surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the potential damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Middle East from further conflict,” ING analysts said in a note.
Oil Market Eases as Strait of Hormuz Transit Resumes Following U.S.-China Talks -- The oil market on Thursday traded lower in light of reports of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s state media said about 30 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, while the semi-official Fars news agency cited a source saying Iran had begun allowing transit for some Chinese vessels. This followed U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, with both leaders agreeing that the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy. The crude market sold off below the $100 level in overnight trading as it traded to $99.60 as the meeting between the U.S. and China began. The market bounced off that level and traded back to a high of $102.35. However, the market erased its gains once again and traded lower following the reports of vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz. It traded to a low of $99.39 early in the morning. The market later settled in a sideways trading range during the remainder of the session. The June WTI contract settled up 15 cents at $101.17 and the July Brent settled up 9 cents at $105.72. The product markets ended the session lower, with the heating oil contract settling down 6.11 cents at $3.9056 and the RB market settling down 1.3 cents at $3.6057. U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is in China’s best interests and he believes Beijing will do what it can to reopen the waterway. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi urged BRICS nations on Thursday to condemn what he called violations of international law by the United States and Israel, including “their illegal aggression against Iran”. He criticized Washington, describing the war as “illegal expansionism and warmongering,” and said Iran remained open to diplomacy while being ready to defend itself “with all available means.” Iran’s stance could make it difficult for BRICS, which operates by consensus, to agree on a joint statement, given the UAE’s presence on the opposing side. Iran has launched numerous attacks on the UAE and other neighboring countries. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said it received a report of an incident 38 nautical miles northeast of the United Arab Emirates port of Fujairah. It said the vessel was boarded by unauthorized personnel while at anchor and is now heading toward Iranian territorial waters. Ship-tracking data from LSEG showed that a Panama-flagged crude oil tanker managed by Japanese refining group Eneos has passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the second instance of such a Japan-linked oil ship making it through. Bloomberg reported that Vitol Group is offering Iraqi Basrah crude to customers, in a sign that some shipments may have successfully made it out of the Persian Gulf. According to source, Vitol has offered cargoes to refiners in the past few days, with Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy available on a ship-to-ship transfer basis in waters off the UAE port of Fujairah.
Iran deploys fast-boat swarms in Strait of Hormuz as Vance cites ‘sensitive’ negotiations - A swarm of more than 300 Iranian fast-attack boats was identified in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday as diplomatic efforts between Tehran and Washington continued. According to maritime intelligence firm Windward AI, 342 boats were deployed across five monitored zones — a “step down from yesterday’s 454, but still elevated compared with the 27 to 230 range observed between May 4 and May 10,” the firm said in a post shared on X. On May 11, a swarm of about 200 Iranian fast-attack boats brought the Strait of Hormuz to a virtual standstill, the firm said. Windward also reported a heavy concentration of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) small craft inside the northern Hormuz Corridor, using “swarm-style formations” and “escort-like behavior” to disrupt commercial traffic. “The swarm coincides with a total halt in commercial movement, with all large-hull vessels currently observed as stationary,” Windward said. Iran also expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz into a “vast operational area” far wider than before the conflict, according to reports. Citing Mohammad Akbarzadeh, deputy political director of the IRGC Navy, the state-affiliated Fars News Agency reported May 12 that the strait is no longer viewed as a narrow stretch around a handful of islands. Instead, it has been expanded in both scope and military significance, Akbarzadeh said, according to Reuters.
Ship seized off UAE coast heads to Iranian waters - (AP) — A ship anchored off the United Arab Emirates was seized and taken toward Iran and another — a cargo ship near Oman — sank after being attacked, authorities said Thursday, as tensions escalated near the Strait of Hormuz.It wasn’t immediately clear who was behind these incidents, but they happened as a senior Iranian official reiterated his country’s claim of control over the waterway and another said it had a right to seize oil tankers connected to the U.S.The turmoil in the strait, which a fifth of the world’s oil passed through before the war, has been a sticking point for weeks in talks between the U.S. and Iran to end the conflict. Iran’s grip on the vital waterway has jolted the world economy and spiked fuel prices far beyond the Middle East.The ongoing instability in the region comes as U.S. President Donald Trump met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing. The White House said both sides had agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open.Just last week, tensions flared in the strait when U.S. forces fired on and disabled Iranian oil tankers that it said were trying to breach its blockade of Iran’s ports. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center said it received reports that the ship seized Thursday was taken by unauthorized personnel while anchored 38 nautical miles (70 kilometers, 44 miles) northeast of the UAE port of Fujairah, an important oil export terminal that has been repeatedly attacked during the war with Iran.The U.K. maritime center did not name the ship seized Thursday and said it is investigating. The British military said the vessel is heading toward Iranian waters.Indian authorities said Thursday that an Indian-flagged cargo ship sank off the coast of Oman after an attack sparked a fire aboard the vessel while it was en route from Somalia to Sharjah, another UAE port. They did not say who attacked the ship. The attack on the Indian-flagged cargo ship Haji Ali occurred Wednesday, according to Mukesh Mangal, a senior official in India’s shipping ministry. He said all 14 Indian crew members were rescued by Oman’s coast guard and were safe.India’s foreign ministry called the incident “unacceptable” and condemned continued attacks on commercial shipping and civilian mariners. The ministry did not identify who carried out the attack.Iranian semiofficial news agencies reported that Chinese ships began passing through the strait Wednesday night under new Iranian protocols. According to the reports, Tehran agreed to facilitate the passage of several Chinese vessels after requests from China’s foreign minister and Beijing’s ambassador to Iran. The ships began their passage as Trump arrived in China.The seizure of a ship off the coast of the UAE happened hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had quietly visited the country during the Israeli-U.S. war with Iran, though the UAE swiftly denied it.The Gulf nation normalized relations with Israel in 2020. Iran has criticized that agreement and has repeatedly suggested over the years that Israel maintained a military and intelligence presence in the UAE. Netanyahu’s decision to go public with the sensitive meeting was likely an effort to drum up support for his flagging party ahead of Israeli elections, said Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute of National Security Studies in Tel Aviv.
Indian cargo ship sinks off Oman after suspected strike as Hormuz crisis spreads --An Indian-flagged cargo ship has sunk off Oman after a suspected strike, with all 14 Indian crew members rescued, adding a new shipping-security shock to the Iran crisis just hours after a separate vessel was reported seized near the UAE and moved toward Iranian waters. The vessel, Haji Ali, was sailing from Somalia to Sharjah with livestock when it was hit by an unidentified explosive object near Oman’s northern coast, according to India Today. The report said officials suspect the object may have been a drone or missile, but no government has publicly identified who carried out the attack. The Associated Press also reported that Indian authorities said the ship sank after an attack sparked a fire aboard the vessel, while it was traveling from Somalia to Sharjah. AP said India’s shipping ministry confirmed all 14 Indian crew members were rescued by Oman’s coast guard and were safe. India Today identified the ship as the Haji Ali, a cargo vessel registered at Salaya Port in Gujarat’s Devbhoomi Dwarka district. The ship was reportedly near Limah, off Oman’s northern coast, around 3:30 a.m. Wednesday when it was struck by an unidentified explosive object. The strike reportedly triggered a fire, forcing the crew to send a distress signal and evacuate into lifeboats. Omani authorities then launched a rescue operation and brought the sailors to Deeba port. The ship’s owner later confirmed that everyone on board was safe. India’s Ministry of External Affairs called the attack “unacceptable” and said commercial shipping and civilian mariners must not be targeted. The ministry also thanked Oman for rescuing the crew. That wording matters. New Delhi did not publicly blame Iran, the United States, Israel, or any proxy force. The confirmed facts are narrower: an Indian-flagged commercial vessel was attacked, the crew survived, and the ship sank in waters now considered dangerously exposed because of the wider Iran conflict. The sinking does not stand alone. In a separate report Thursday, AP reported that a ship anchored off the east coast of the United Arab Emirates had been seized and was heading toward Iranian waters, citing the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center. UKMTO said it received reports that unauthorized personnel took the unnamed vessel about 38 nautical miles northeast of Fujairah, near the Strait of Hormuz. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for that incident either. Together, the two reports point to a sharper phase of the shipping crisis. The threat is no longer just whether the Strait of Hormuz is formally open or closed. The bigger problem is whether individual vessels can transit nearby waters without being attacked, boarded, delayed, or forced into political bargaining. The Haji Ali was not a giant oil tanker. It was a smaller commercial cargo ship carrying livestock. That is exactly why the incident is worrying. When smaller civilian vessels become vulnerable, the risk spreads beyond energy markets into regional trade, insurance, crew safety, and the traditional shipping networks that connect Gulf ports with South Asia and East Africa. India Today reported that this was the second recent sinking involving a Gujarat-linked vessel, after another Salaya vessel reportedly sank in the Strait of Hormuz after being caught in crossfire connected to the regional conflict. For India, the issue is immediate. Indian crews are deeply embedded in global shipping, and Indian-linked vessels regularly move through Gulf routes. An attack that sends 14 Indian sailors into lifeboats forces New Delhi to treat the Iran crisis not just as a diplomatic or energy-price problem, but as a direct maritime-safety threat. The Hormuz crisis is spreading outward The Strait of Hormuz remains the central choke point, but the danger zone now appears wider. Fujairah sits just outside the Persian Gulf and serves as a major UAE oil export hub. Oman’s northern coast lies along another vital approach to Gulf shipping lanes. Incidents in both areas suggest the crisis is spilling into the surrounding sea routes that shippers use to avoid the worst of the pressure. That creates a brutal calculation for commercial operators. Avoiding Hormuz may not be enough if nearby anchorages, approaches, and alternate routes are also exposed. Even when crews survive, insurers can raise premiums, owners can delay sailings, and governments can face pressure to escort or reroute vessels.
Oil Prices Climb As Hormuz Concerns Persist --- Oil prices rallied on Friday as Hormuz concerns persisted and U.S. President Donald Trump claimed the United States will prevail in its war with Iran, "peacefully or otherwise". Brent crude prices for July delivery jumped more than 3 percent to $109.19 a barrel as attacks on one ship and the seizure of another around the Strait of Hormuz stoked concerns about energy supplies. WTI crude futures soared 3.5 percent to $104.70 and were on track for a weekly gain of nearly 9 percent. Hormuz concerns persist despite Iran's Revolutionary Guards claiming around 30 vessels had crossed the strait since Wednesday evening. After wrapping up his three-day visit to China, U.S. President Trump said he will not be much more patient with Tehran. In a lengthy Truth Social post, Trump suggested he may resume the war against Iran after he returns from his trip to China. Elsewhere, the Trump-Xi summit has so far produced warm words but yielded little progress on the war in Iran. Trump warned Iran to make a deal or face "annihilation". In a Telegram post, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has accused the United Arab Emirates of playing an active role in the U.S.-Israeli war against his country.
Oil prices rise more than 3% amid fears of renewed US-Iran combat - Oil prices gained more than 3% on Friday, climbing over $3 a barrel after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s foreign minister further dented hopes of a deal to end ship attacks and seizures around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures gained $3.24, or 3.06%, to $108.96 a barrel by 10:49 a.m. CDT (1549 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $4.13, or 4.08%, at $105.03. Over the week, Brent has climbed 7.54% and WTI 9.7% on uncertainty over the shaky ceasefire in the Iran conflict. “The tone between the U.S. and Iran has once again become significantly more confrontational. While the ceasefire holds, hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have faded,” Commerzbank analysts said. Iran has “no trust” in the U.S. and is only interested in negotiating with Washington if it is serious, foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said on Friday, adding that Iran is prepared to go back to fighting but also prepared for diplomatic solutions. Trump said he was running out of patience with Iran and that he had agreed with Chinese President Xi Jinping that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon and must reopen the Strait of Hormuz. President Xi did not comment on his discussions with Trump about Iran, though China’s foreign ministry issued a statement. “This conflict, which should never have happened, has no reason to continue,” the ministry said. Among deals the market was looking for from the U.S.-China summit, Trump said China wants to buy oil from the United States. Trump also said he could lift sanctions on Chinese companies that buy Iranian oil. “Market focus is back on the deadlock and a blockaded Strait of Hormuz, with a tail risk of renewed military escalation,” Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said that 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz between Wednesday evening and Thursday, still far short of the 140 a day that was typical before the war, but a substantial increase if confirmed. “An increasing number of vessels are filtering through the Strait … although currently this has a more tangible impact on sentiment than on the actual oil balance,” The strait’s closure comes at a time when reserves are running thin. “The world has consumed its oil safety net at a historic rate,” Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group, said in a note. “While strategic releases and demand reduction have prevented immediate chaos, the margin for error is shrinking rapidly. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz points toward tighter physical markets, potential refined product shortages, and upward pressure on prices in the coming weeks and months.” Shipping analytics firm Kpler said on Thursday that 10 ships had sailed through the strait in the past 24 hours, compared with the five to seven that have crossed daily in recent weeks. “Crude is trading higher on a combination of the Trump-Xi meeting doing little to bring us closer to a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries,” said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
Oil Futures Surge on Tighter Global Supply (DTN) -- Oil futures surged Friday with both WTI and Brent reaching their highest levels in seven days amid expectations of tighter supplies, despite increased vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S.-China agreement emphasizing that the key global oil and gas shipping waterway should remain open. The front-month NYMEX WTI futures contract rose $4.25, or 4.20%, to $105.42 bbl, while the July ICE Brent futures contract climbed $3.62, or 3.42%, to $109.34 bbl. In refined products trading, June ULSD futures advanced $0.1539 to $4.0595 gallon, the front-month RBOB futures contract rose $0.1046 to $4.0102 gallon. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened 0.482 points to 99.210 against a basket of currencies. Iranian media reported that roughly 30 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, May 14, after Tehran had allowed some Chinese ships to pass through the shipping route. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil supply fell 1.8 million bpd in April to 95.1 million bpd as a result of the Iran conflict and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, bringing cumulative supply losses since February to 12.8 million bpd. "Assuming flows through the Strait gradually resume from June, global oil supply is projected to decline by 3.9 million bpd on average in 2026, to 102.2 million bpd," the EIA said. U.S. President Donald Trump concluded his three-day visit to China, saying his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping resulted in "fantastic trade deals." However, details of such agreements were not disclosed. The summit took place more than a year after the Trump administration imposed a baseline 10% tariff on most Chinese good imported into the U.S., prompting retaliatory measures from China and escalating trade tensions between both countries.
Oil Prices Surge Over 3% as WTI and Brent Post Strong Weekly Gains on Tightening Supply - Oil futures and refined fuel benchmarks climbed on Friday and into Saturday as traders tracked tightening supply signals and widening spreads across global crude grades. Both West Texas Intermediate and Brent posted strong gains. As of 10:24 am in Tokyo on May 16, US benchmark WTI crude was up $4.25 to $105.42, a 4.2% gain. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose $3.54 to $109.26, up 3.35%. Over the week, Brent crude climbed by 7.84%, while WTI jumped by 10.48%. Gulf marker Murban crude traded at $108.00, up 3.15%, while Dubai crude was at $102.61, up 0.25%. Oman crude on the Dubai Mercantile Exchange was little changed at $104.78. The OPEC basket posted one of the session’s largest moves, up $7.43, or 6.9%, to $115.09, reflecting broad strength across member export grades. Refined products also advanced. US gasoline futures rose 2.67% to $3.702 per gallon, while heating oil gained 3.78% to $4.053. Natural gas futures were up 2.28% at $2.960. In North America, WTI Midland climbed 3.5% to $106.64, and Louisiana Light rose 1.42% to $104.52. However, some inland US grades lagged: Mars crude fell 3.51% to $116.98, and Domestic Sweet at Cushing dropped 6.55% to $91.25. Among other international grades, Russia’s Urals slipped 0.81% to $96.72, while Western Canadian Select edged up 0.17% to $88.82. India’s crude basket rose 0.24% to $109.31, and Mexico’s basket was marginally higher at $104.46. The divergence between coastal, export-linked grades and inland U.S. crudes suggested regional bottlenecks and shifting export economics, even as headline benchmarks rallied. Traders said the broad advance reflected expectations of tighter physical supply and strong refining margins heading into the Northern Hemisphere summer driving season.
World losing 100 million barrels a week of oil with Hormuz closed, Saudi Aramco chief says | Middle East Eye - Global oil markets are losing 100 million barrels every week that the Strait of Hormuz is closed, as a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, the head of Saudi Arabia’s state oil producer said on Monday. “The energy supply shock that began in the first quarter is the largest the world has ever experienced,” Saudi Aramco chief executive officer Amin Nasser told analysts on an earnings call. Nasser said the world is coping with the shock through "demand rationing" of available supplies. "We expect demand rationing to continue as long as supply remains disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz. If normal trade and shipping resume, we anticipate a very robust return to demand growth," Nasser said. Energy analysts have already said the collapse of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz is being felt unevenly, with countries in Asia that are almost totally dependent on the Gulf for their oil, rationing. In the West, particularly in the US, energy prices have risen, but there have been no measures to restrict consumption. Oil prices soared on Monday by more than three percent after US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "on life support”, with traders betting on a return to conflict. But Nasser echoed other CEOs and energy experts who have said there is a disconnect between the physical price of oil and what is being traded in the futures market. As of 11 May, Brent crude futures for July delivery are trading at around $105 per barrel. However, the price customers are paying for oil in the real world is substantially higher. Georges Elhedery, the CEO of HSBC Bank, said last month that the price paid for a barrel of oil reached as high as $286 in Sri Lanka. Other experts have said that buyers in Asia are paying around $150 per barrel of oil. Nasser said the market has been buttressed by drawing down inventories stored at sea and on land, which he called “the only buffer that is available today”. He warned that global stockpiles have been “materially depleted”. The International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of oil by its member countries at the start of the war. China, the world’s second-largest consumer of oil after the US, also quietly slashed its imports of oil by 25 percent from pre-war levels. Those moves have helped keep prices in check, but Nasser warned against complacency. “The aggregate inventory level globally is not a proper reflection of the current physical market tightness that we see,” he said. Oil traders, analysts and US banks have all warned that the global energy market will hit a tipping point in June if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. “If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened sometime in June/July, global oil inventories will hit an operational floor and result in greater rationing, mostly outside the US,” JP Morgan warned last week. Aramco posted a 26 percent jump in first-quarter adjusted net income, beating analyst expectations. The kingdom is exporting between 60 and 70 percent of its pre-war volume, but at substantially higher prices. Whereas Kuwait, Bahrain and Iraq are highly dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for exports, Saudi Arabia has been able to bypass the waterway via its East-West pipeline that terminates at the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Nasser called the pipeline a “critical lifeline” and said it was currently pumping at its five-million-barrel-per-day capacity, but looking to increase that number. The kingdom is also using the Red Sea to export 900,000 barrels per day of refined products.
Hormuz closure extends well beyond oil to threaten Chinese EVs (Reuters) - Buyers of electric vehicles and consumers of a diet cola in India may seem to be two groups with little in common, but they are both at risk from the fallout from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The longer the narrow waterway remains closed to most vessels the more pronounced second- and third-round effects will become on the world economy, which is already having to deal with higher prices for refined fuels such as diesel and gasoline and the related inflation this brings. Electric vehicles (EVs) are widely considered to be one of the big winners from the current conflict between the United States and Iran, as they allow users to move away from reliance on fossil fuels. But EVs are exposed to the Strait of Hormuz as the manufacture of their batteries is dependent on sulphuric acid, a key component in the extraction of metals such as nickel and lithium. Sulphuric acid is vital in the high-pressure acid leach method of extracting battery-grade nickel from ore at mines in Indonesia, the top producer of the metal. It is also used to extract lithium from hard rocks in Australia, the biggest producer of the metal, and is also important to produce copper. Prior to the February 28 U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran about half of global seaborne sulphur went through the Strait of Hormuz, largely to countries in Asia. Sulphur is a by-product of producing crude oil and gas, and refining into fuels, making Middle East countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia major suppliers of the raw material that is used to make sulphuric acid. Sulphur is usually transported by bulk carriers and volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed since the start of the Iran conflict, with data from commodity analysts Kpler showing only 30,000 metric tons made it out in April and 180,000 tons in March. This was down from an average of 1.27 million tons a month in the three months prior to the start of the conflict, according to Kpler. The loss of Middle East cargoes has sent the price of sulphur soaring, with delivered prices to Asia reaching as high as $880 a ton, up 50% since the start of the war. The higher price for sulphur is feeding through to sulphuric acid and will raise costs for nickel, copper and lithium miners, but of more concern is that supply might be constrained. If miners in Indonesia, Australia and Chile are forced to compete with each for supplies, it raises the risk that some may be forced to curtail production if they are unable to obtain enough sulphuric acid. Several mining executives from Indonesia and Australia attending last month's Asian Battery Raw Materials Conference in Hanoi expressed concern that securing sulphuric acid supplies on a medium-term basis is becoming more challenging. China's EV and battery storage makers are exposed to any loss of supply of nickel produced using HPAL as well as lithium from Australia. There are some alternatives to using sulphuric acid in processing metals, but they are not suitable to produce battery-grade nickel, and for copper and lithium they require higher energy inputs to make lower volumes. While the processing of metals is not yet a crisis point, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed the closer that point becomes. It raises the question as to what tactics Beijing will follow if a threat to its EV and battery industries becomes more than just a remote possibility. The logical step would be to up the pressure on both its ally Iran and on U.S. President Donald Trump to reach an agreement that at the very least reopens the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic. While the threat to the production of battery metals increases, there are other impacts outside of crude oil and LNG already being felt. About 8% of global aluminium supply went through the Strait of Hormuz prior to the Iran war, and this has largely stopped. About 20,000 tons of the lightweight metal exited the Strait in April, according to Kpler data, down from an average of 1.26 million tons in the three months prior to the start of the war. The loss of these cargoes has tightened aluminium supply in India, leading to a shortage of Diet Coke, which is only sold in aluminium cans. While this represents an inconvenience for Diet Coke drinkers, it also shows that shortages turn up in unexpected places and will disrupt supply chains, leading to higher prices and changed consumer behaviour.
Iran says its small subs deployed to Strait of Hormuz as expert explains threat: ‘Vulnerable to detection’ - Iran says it has deployed small submarines to act as an "invisible guardian" of the Strait of Hormuz amid a series of rejected peace deals between Tehran and the U.S., according to reports. The deployment claim came as analysts said that although the Iranian Ghadir-class mini-subs could threaten U.S. naval forces, the vessels’ limited range, firepower and endurance would blunt any real strategic impact. The submarine deployment was highlighted by Bloomberg and first reported by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency. Rear Admiral Shahram Irani, commander of Iran’s navy, said that his forces deployed its light submarine, referred to as the "dolphins of the Persian Gulf," according to the Iranian state media outlet.It also comes as Tehran seeks to reinforce its control over the strait, now defining it as a far larger zone, Reuters reported."Time would be limited, probably a couple of days at the most," defense analyst Tom Shugart told Fox News Digital about the Iranian vessel deployment.The retired U.S. Navy submarine warfare officer also said the small diesel-electric submarines face fundamental operational constraints."If they run their diesel engines to snorkel and recharge batteries, that could generate sound that could be detected," Shugart said. "Their snorkel mast projecting from the water could be detected by radars on patrol aircraft or helicopters," Shugart added.The submarines are said to be designed for shallow waters like the Strait of Hormuz and can operate quietly for limited periods on battery power."While they may be able to sit on the bottom for a while and operate somewhat quietly on their batteries for a while, they have no air-independent propulsion system (AIP) like more modern diesel-electric submarines," Shugart said before adding that they’ll, "eventually have to come up and snorkel. This will make them more vulnerable to detection and destruction."
Iran moves to place Internet Cables in Hormuz under State Control - Pakistan Observer– As tensions continue unabated in Strait of Hormuz, Iran has moved to tighten its control, declaring undersea internet cables as strategic assets and introducing plans to regulate both digital traffic and maritime movement through the region. At time when global energy and data flow depend heavily on this narrow passage, the decision sparked concern and raised fresh questions about the future control of one of the world’s most critical trade and communication corridors. Iranian authorities have reportedly taken major and highly sensitive step involving Hormuz, moving to place undersea internet infrastructure and key maritime traffic under tighter state control. The state regime started considering undersea internet cables passing through Strait of Hormuz as strategic national asset. These cables, which carry vast volumes of global internet traffic and critical financial data, could soon come under Iranian regulatory authority. Reports suggest that a newly created authority in the Strait of Hormuz will be responsible for overseeing and managing international submarine communication cables in the region. Under this proposed framework, all such cables would fall under Iranian laws and oversight. Tehran is reportedly working to grant domestic companies greater technical control over the maintenance and management of these undersea cable systems, further strengthening its influence over digital infrastructure in the region. This development comes just a day after Iran announced the formation of the “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” a body designed to introduce a new regulatory system for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Foreign media reports claim that under this system, ships navigating through the strategic waterway will be required to obtain official permission before passage. Iran is also reportedly considering the introduction of transit fees for vessels using this critical route. Hormuz remains one of the key maritime chokepoints, through which significant portion of global oil supply is transported. Any disruption or tighter control over this route has immediate international implications for energy markets, shipping, and global trade. U.S. Navy destroyers reportedly came under Iranian attack while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, using missiles, drones, and fast boats, according to U.S. Central Command. The situation unfolded alongside a U.S. operation called “Project Freedom,” aimed at securing shipping lanes through the strait. Iran reportedly responded with further strikes on vessels and announced a new authority to regulate and charge for shipping routes in the region. Meanwhile, U.S. forces were said to have disabled several Iranian-linked tankers in separate incidents. Amid escalating tensions and reciprocal attacks, commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly stopped, as most operators avoid the area due to security risks and uncertainty.
Qatar Asks Vessels At Key LNG Port To Go Dark for Safety - Qatar has requested LNG vessels near its Ras Laffan LNG port to switch off their transponders as part of safety measures at the key export port of the world’s second-largest LNG exporter before the war, anonymous sources with knowledge of the plan told Bloomberg on Tuesday. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has trapped about 20% of daily global LNG flows, mostly those previously shipping out of Qatar and part of the UAE’s LNG flows. In addition, Iranian drone and missile strikes on energy infrastructure in the region has damaged Qatar’s key LNG liquefaction complex Ras Laffan, the world’s single largest such facility. Due to the attacks, QatarEnergy has been forced to declare force majeure for up to five years on some long-term LNG contracts and has advised that full capacity could take up to five years to restore following extensive damage from the strikes. The waters around Qatar have seen increased security threats since the war began on February 28. After more than two months of total blockage of Qatari shipments out of the Strait of Hormuz, the major Gulf LNG exporter is now apparently seeking to avoid being targeted. At least nine LNG tankers that were anchored near Qatar stopped sending signals via their Automatic Identification System from May 11, vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed, in a sign that Qatar may have indeed asked ships to go dark to avoid being targeted. A tanker laden with LNG from Qatar successfully passed the Strait of Hormuz this weekend, the first such transit since February 28.Crude tankers have also successfully exited the Strait in recent days, after going dark, according to shipping data cited by Reuters. “Commercial shipping and maritime security activity around the Strait of Hormuz are increasingly shifting into dark or emissions-controlled conditions,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Monday.
Chinese Supertanker Sails Out Of Hormuz In Rare Exit - As president Trump was on his way to China, a Chinese tanker appears to have exited the Strait of Hormuz as it sails toward an area where the US has enforced a blockade, ahead of talks between US President Donald Trump and counterpart Xi Jinping, Bloomberg reported today, citing ship-tracking data showing the VLCC moving south along the eastern side of the chokepoint. The supertanker which sailed past Iran’s Larak island, and into the Gulf of Oman, is Yuan Hua Hu, owned by Cosco, and would be only the third tanker carrying oil for China from the Persian Gulf that has traversed Hormuz since the start of the war. The vessel is broadcasting its Chinese origin and crew, Bloomberg said, as other vessels have done previously to secure safe passage. Yuan Hua Hu’s draft indicates it’s fully loaded with oil, or close to the vessel’s 2 million barrel capacity. It was seen lifting from Iraq’s Basrah terminal in early March, according to ship-tracking data. The vessel was chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese state refining giant Sinopec, according to a fixture seen by Bloomberg. In April, two very large Chinese crude carriers were allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz under Iran’s toll system that demands payment of $2 million per supertanker to pass. One of those was the same Yuan Hua Hu that is currently moving along the strait. China imports the bulk of its energy from the Middle East, and while it has amassed substantial crude oil stockpiles that are helping it weather the worst of the crisis - anecdotally over 1.4 billion barrels - restoring normal flows from the Persian Gulf is important for one of the world’s top energy importers. Earlier in the war, reports emerged that Beijing had pressured Iranian officials to stop attacking vessels carrying crude oil and LNG via Hormuz. Judging from later events that involved Iranian strikes on vessels in the chokepoint, Tehran did not yield to the pressure. The moment is delicate for relations between the United States, China, and Iran as President Trump heads to Beijing for talks with President Xi on topics that are bound to include traffic via the Strait of Hormuz. According to media reports, President Trump plans to have “a long talk” with President Xi about Iran, even as he told news agencies he did not need China’s help in resolving differences with Iran.
Iran Allows a 'Number' of Chinese Vessels To Transit Strait of Hormuz: Iranian Media - Iranian media reported on Thursday that Tehran has approved the transit of a “number” of Chinese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, as President Trump is in Beijing for talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.“Following requests by the Chinese foreign minister and the country’s ambassador to Iran, facilitation of the passage of Chinese ships was pursued based on the deep relations and the strategic partnership between Tehran and Beijing, and it was decided that a number of Chinese ships requested by the country would transit this waterway after reaching an understanding about the Iranian management protocols of the strait, and this passage began Wednesday night,” Iran’s Mehr news agency reported. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps also announced the approval of the Chinese transit and added that any vessels linked to “an enemy state” will continue to be blocked. It’s unclear if China is paying a toll or a fee to Iran for the ships to travel through the strait. The US has claimed that Beijing agreed there should be no toll, but Chinese officials haven’t publicly confirmed that.The White House said in a statement on the talks between Trump and Xi that the two leaders agreed “that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy” and that Xi “also made clear China’s opposition to the militarization of the Strait and any effort to charge a toll for its use.”The Chinese side did not mention Iran or the Strait of Hormuz in its readout of the meeting. China is the main buyer of Iranian oil, which is under heavy US sanctions, and ahead of Trump’s visit to Beijing, China ordered companies in the country to ignore US sanctions on Chinese oil refineries with links to Tehran.One result of the US-Israeli war against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been an increase in US oil and natural gas exports to Asia, and the White House also claimed that Xi “expressed interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce China’s dependence on the Strait in the future.”Trump also claimed after the meeting that Xi had committed to not providing Iran with military equipment. “[Xi] said he’s not going to give military equipment. That’s a big statement. He said that today,” Trump told Fox News after the talks.
Report: UAE Has Secretly Launched Attacks Against Iran - The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that the United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes against Iran, and its sources presented the Gulf Arab state as an active combatant in the war, backing up Tehran’s allegations against Abu Dhabi. The report said that one of the attacks included the bombing of oil infrastructure in Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf, which occurred in early April, right after the ceasefire between the US and Iran came into effect. At the time, Iranian media blamed the attack on the UAE, saying it was likely launched by the country’s French-made Mirage fighter jets, and Iran responded with attacks on the UAE and Kuwait.Sources told the Journal that the US wasn’t upset with the UAE for attacking Iran after the ceasefire was supposed to go into effect because the truce hadn’t “settled into place,” and Washington was happy to see Abu Dhabi join in on direct attacks against the Islamic Republic.Iranian media also reported that it had evidence of Emirati involvement in the war, pointing to the interception of a UAE Mirage fighter jet over Iran’s Jask island on March 22 and the April 1 downing of a Chinese WingLoong-2 drone, which, according to the reports, is “only in the possession of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.” The UAE also maintains a fleet of US-made F-16 fighter jets.Throughout the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, Iranian officials had said they were tracking attacks launched from the UAE’s territory, and many of Iran’s missile and drone attacks were focused on targets inside the UAE. Last week, Iran responded to President Trump announcing a new military operation to open the Strait of Hormuz by launching attacks on the UAE, though the Iranian military officially denied conducting the operations.The lack of a US response to last week’s attacks reportedly led to Saudi Arabia and Kuwait restricting US military activity at their bases, resulting in Trump pausing the short-lived military operation, which he dubbed “Project Freedom,” though other reports said those restrictions have since been lifted, and the president may restart the effort. The UAE responded to the attacks by vowing that it had the right to respond, and if the US and Israel restart the full-scale bombing campaign, Abu Dhabi will likely be more directly involved than before. The UAE has a partnership with Israel, a result of the normalization deals known as the Abraham Accords, which were signed during the first Trump administration, and Israel reportedly deployed an Iron Dome air defense battery to the UAE and IDF troops to operate it.
Report: Saudi Arabia Launched Attacks Against Iran During US-Israeli Bombing Campaign - Reuters reported on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia launched numerous, unpublicized strikes against Iran during the US-Israeli bombing campaign, dubbed “Operation Epic Fury.”The report came a day after The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE also launched direct attacks on Iran, including one that came after the ceasefire between the US and Iran came into effect.The Reuters report, which cited Western and Iranian officials, said there was a different dynamic between Riyadh and Tehran than between Riyadh and the UAE.“The UAE has taken a more hawkish stance, seeking to extract a cost from Iran and engaging only rarely in public diplomacy with Tehran,” the report said. “Saudi Arabia has meanwhile sought to prevent the conflict from escalating and has stayed in regular contact with Iran, including via Tehran’s ambassador in Riyadh.”Officials said that the Saudis launched strikes against Iran in late March in response to Iranian attacks on Saudi territory and that Tehran was made aware of the strikes. Officials said that Riyadh threatened to take a more hawkish approach and hit Iran harder, which led to a decrease in Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia, which hosts US troops and has a close military relationship with Washington. Saudi Arabia maintains a fleet of US-made fighter jets, and Washington had previously backed a brutal Saudi bombing campaign in Yemen from 2015 to 2022.The UAE is seen as being much more openly aligned with Israel due to the 2020 normalization agreement, known as the Abraham Accords, and Israel has reportedly deployed an Iron Dome air defense battery to the Gulf Arab state.
Report: Saudi Arabia Bombed Iraqi Militias During US-Israeli Bombing Campaign Against Iran -- Saudi Arabia bombed targets in Iraq linked to the country’s Shia militias that are aligned with Tehran during the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, Reuters reported on Wednesday. Sources told the outlet that Saudi fighter jets launched strikes against targets near Saudi Arabia’s border with Iran and that some attacks occurred around the time the ceasefire between the US and Iran came into effect.The report said that the Saudi strikes targeted areas from where missile and drone attacks were launched against Saudi territory. It’s unclear if there were any casualties in the Saudi attacks. Sources also told Reuters that rocket fire from Kuwait targeted militias in Iraq at least twice and that one attack killed several fighters and destroyed a facility used by Kataib Hezbollah, one of the main Iran-aligned militias in the country. It’s unclear if the attacks were launched by the US military or Kuwait’s own forces.Throughout the bombing campaign in Iran, the US was launching heavy airstrikes against Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of mainly Shia militias that was formed in 2014 to fight ISIS and is officially part of Iraq’s security forces. The US strikes killed dozens of PMF fighters, and one attack killed seven Iraqi military troops. Another group, which calls itself the Islamic Resistance in Iraq and comprises some of the same militias in the PMF, claimed many of the drone attacks against US bases and other assets in the country. Reuters reported a day earlier that Saudi Arabia also launched direct strikes on Iran during the war and warned that the attacks would escalate if Iran didn’t stop targeting Saudi territory. The report said that Iran then reduced its attacks on Saudi Arabia, but that attacks emanating from Iraq continued.
Report: Saudi Arabia Floats Middle East Non-Aggression Pact With Iran - - Saudi Arabia has discussed a non-aggression pact with Middle East states and Iran in conversations with its allies about what the region will look like following the end of the US-Israeli war against Iran, the Financial Times has reported. The report noted that the US’s Gulf Arab allies are worried they will be left with a powerful Iran in the region and a scaled-back US military presence. Satellite images show that many of the US bases across the region have been badly damaged or destroyed by Iranian missile and drone attacks.The Saudis have floated something similar to the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which were meant to reduce Cold War tensions between the Soviet Union and the US’s allies in Europe. Recent reporting has revealed that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE launched direct strikes against Iran during the US-Israeli bombing campaign, though the two Gulf states appear to be taking a much different approach, as Abu Dhabi has been more openly hawkish while Riyadh appears to want to ease tensions with Tehran.Two diplomats speaking to the Financial Times questioned whether the UAE would want to be a part of any non-aggression pact with Iran. Israel would almost certainly oppose it as it seeks a return to full-scale war and has envisioned the Abraham Accords, the 2020 normalization deals with the UAE and Bahrain, as the start of an anti-Iran alliance in the region.The report said that most Arab and Muslim states in the region see Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu largely to blame for bringing President Trump into the war with Iran, which the Gulf Arab states initially lobbied against. Trump has been considering restarting the full-scale bombing campaign, which appears to be likely as Washington and Tehran remain extremely far apart on their demands for a diplomatic deal.
UAE fast tracks second West-East oil pipeline to bypass Strait of Hormuz - Abu Dhabi is accelerating construction of the new West-East pipeline to Fujairah as it looks to expand its oil export capacity and bypass the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint. The project, expected to come online in 2027, will double the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s (ADNOC) export capacity. The second pipeline project comes as global energy supplies remain under pressure, flows through the Strait of Hormuz are severely limited, and repeated attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping have curtailed the UAE’s ability to restore normal output. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on Friday called for faster delivery of the pipeline to meet rising global energy demand. ADNOC is “well positioned as a responsible and reliable global energy producer, with the operational flexibility to responsibly increase production to meet market needs when export constraints allow,” the Crown Prince said during a meeting of the company’s executive committee. The Emirates announced earlier this month it would depart the producer group OPEC, of which it was a member since 1967, before the UAE was even founded. The UAE has been investing heavily via ADNOC to increase its production capacity. Before the war, the UAE was producing just over 3 million barrels a day — broadly in line with OPEC+ targets. Abu Dhabi has targeted a capacity to produce 4.9 million BPD. Now, due to the war, the UAE is producing between 1.8 and 2.1 million barrels per day. The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (Adcop) — also known as the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline — is the only existing pipeline through which the UAE can export its oil and diverge from the Strait of Hormuz. It can carry up to 1.8 million barrels.
Iran Claims 80% Of Bombed-Out Areas Of Tehran Restored, Amid $270BN War Loss Compensation Demand - Iran has been seeking to prove its unity and defiance to the world in the aftermath of the 38-days of heavy US-Israeli bombing it endured throughout the Trump-ordered Operation Epic Fury. Along with fast seeking to rearm and recover its missile capability after the bombardment which heavily targeted above and below-ground missile silos, it is also rapidly rebuilding bombed-out parts of the capital city Tehran.In what sounds like a surprising and perhaps high estimate, about 80% of war-damaged sites in Iran's capital have been repaired, the state Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) reports."More than 60,000 residential and commercial units in Tehran province were hit by American-Zionist attacks during the third imposed war," Deputy Governor of Tehran Seyyed Kamaleddin Mirjafarian was quoted in the report as saying.The 80% claim might be met with a lot of scrutiny and doubt, given that many neighborhoods and buildings seemed to suffer damage so immense in scale, that it should take at least months if not years to rebuild.But there has been some clear evidence that Iranian construction teams and engineers have worked around the clock to repair and replace vital infrastructure, like bridges for example. The US and Israel had struck bridges and rail lines to cripple Iran's national transport network. Israel especially adopted attacks against key civilian infrastructure as a battle tactic, in hopes that eventually there would be a groundswell of anti-Tehran anger domestically, leading to government overthrow.Also, "ports and railway networks, universities and research centers, and several power plants and water desalination plants were directly hit, while a large number of hospitals, schools and civilian homes were also damaged or destroyed," Al Jazeera describes. By mid-April, Iran had put a price on the damage, while demanding compensation from Washington: Iran has also raised the idea of compensation for damages to come through a Strait of Hormuz protocol, which would include a tax on ships passing through the waterway.An early estimate indicates that Iran has suffered about $270bn in direct and indirect damages since the start of the US-Israel war on February 28, Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani said during an interview with Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency, published on Tuesday.She did not provide further information, such as a breakdown of the damages, but said the issue of compensation was discussed in last week’s negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Pakistan, and will be raised in any potential future talks with the US and mediators. President Trump himself repeatedly threatening to bomb bridges, power plants, and other infrastructure to send Iran "back to the Stone Age." He's reportedly mulling the resumption of full military operations, amid stalled or non-existent peace talks.
Iran’s Message to Trump: Accept Defeat or Return to War – WANA – Iran has effectively blocked every path through which the United States could exit the war claiming victory. At this point, fulfilling the Islamic Republic’s maximum demands is seen as the only way for Trump to escape the Persian Gulf quagmire: accepting Iran’s authority over the Strait of Hormuz, ending the war on all fronts, dismantling U.S. military bases across the region, paying reparations, and recognizing Iran’s nuclear rights. Since the White House views these conditions as an outright defeat, it continues to resist accepting them. The key point is that Iran has deliberately structured its demands in a way that leaves little room for bargaining. Tehran appears to be in no rush. It has placed its maximalist and victory-oriented demands on the table while already treating the United States as the losing side. According to this narrative, that is the current reality: America came intending to kill, overthrow, divide, seize uranium stockpiles, and dominate Iran’s oil resources. Instead, it suffered humiliation, its bases were destroyed, and it lost access to the Strait of Hormuz. Yet Washington still wants to portray itself as the victor and refuses to acknowledge defeat. A woman walks near a billboard featuring an image of the late Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in Tehran, Iran, May 11, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) If the United States refuses to accept this reality, Iran, according to this view, has no intention of retreating from its demands either. That leaves only one possible outcome: a return to war. But the issue is that the current ceasefire itself is portrayed as the result of America’s defeat on the battlefield, meaning any renewed conflict would effectively resume the same failed war. To Trump’s misfortune, time is also said to be working against American interests. Analysts argue that if the current situation continues for another two weeks, many countries could face severe crises, while the United States itself would experience dramatic inflation and price shocks. Under such circumstances, what would happen if Washington reentered the war and the conflict continued for at least another 40 days? A billboard with a graphic design about the Strait of Hormuz on a building in Tehran, Iran, May 6, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Iran had previously warned that if war were imposed on it, Tehran would not allow the other side to end it whenever they wished. Supporters of this argument point to the “Ramadan War,” claiming that after two weeks, the Americans were already sending ceasefire messages, while Iran allegedly continued the conflict for another 25 days. The implication is that under current conditions, prolonged conflict would damage the opposing camp even more severely. At the same time, Benjamin Netanyahu is described as working aggressively to keep Trump locked into the war. From this perspective, the Israeli prime minister does not care how many American soldiers are killed, how many Iranians die, or whether Arab countries suffer. His only concern is his own political interests. Trump, meanwhile, looks at the situation and sees that the aircraft carriers are his, the fighter jets are his, the refueling aircraft are his, the AWACS systems and Black Hawks and MQ-9 drones are all his—so why should he not believe he can defeat Iran? Why not try once again? Yes, those temptations exist. But so do the traps surrounding him. On one side, Trump appears readying himself for war, while on the other he sees that he possesses no decisive winning card. He has everything, this argument says, except divine support. A man holds an Iranian flag and a picture of Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, on a street in Tehran, Iran, May 6, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) Trump will likely soon realize that the Iranians are playing him strategically; perhaps he already understands it. What seems clear in this narrative is that nobody in Iran intends to reach an agreement with Trump unless he fully accepts defeat. Talk of negotiations is viewed merely as a tactic to buy time. Trump, according to this perspective, must lose. It is presented not as a possibility, but as an inevitability. Trump must pay a price. America must pay a price. Trump must weaken America, strip it of credibility, and bring down American hegemony. Supporters of this line of thinking point to statements previously attributed to Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. In any case, the argument concludes that what must be done—and what is already being done—is steadfast resistance, whether through war or without it. Both paths have their hardships and their advantages. Short-term suffering, it says, must be endured in pursuit of long-term gains. Iran today is portrayed as standing precisely at that point. According to this analysis, offering concessions or flexibility toward Trump is not Iran’s objective, nor is it the intention of its negotiating team. The country is described as being at a peak level of internal coordination.
Iran, Oman hold talks on Hormuz Strait, discuss sovereign rights over strategic waterway -- Iranian and Omani delegations have convened a legal-technical meeting to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, arrangements for the secure passage of ships, and the sovereign rights of both nations over the waterway. The meeting was held in the Omani capital on Tuesday as part of ongoing consultations between Tehran and Muscat at several levels on bilateral relations and regional developments. The Iranian delegation was headed by Abbas Baqerpour, director general for International Legal Affairs at Iran’s Foreign Ministry, and included representatives of relevant institutions. During the negotiations, the two sides emphasized their sovereign rights and jurisdictions over the strait, stressing that it is part of the territorial waters of both countries. The Iranian delegation later met with Omani Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi for separate talks. International Maritime Organization (IMO) Secretary General Arsenio Dominguez, who was also in Oman at the time, met the Iranian delegation as well, where relevant technical issues were discussed. The Strait of Hormuz is 21 nautical miles wide at its narrowest point. Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which Iran has signed but not ratified, coastal nations may claim territorial waters extending 12 nautical miles from their shores. This creates a mathematical reality that neither side disputes. The strait is narrow enough that the territorial waters of Iran and Oman overlap or abut, leaving no high-seas corridor where international transit passage is unambiguously guaranteed. The US-Israeli war of terrorism has prompted Iran to finally put aside its longstanding diplomatic hesitation and historical reluctance over its Hormuz rights, fully enforcing its sovereign authority under the 12-mile territorial waters provision of international law to administer, regulate, and control traffic through the strait. The political deputy of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy (IRGC), Rear Admiral Mohammad Akbarzadeh, said on Tuesday that Iran has fundamentally redefined the operational boundaries of the strategic waterway. “In the past, the Strait of Hormuz was defined as a limited area around islands such as Hormuz and Hengam, but today this has changed,” Akbarzadeh said. What Iran considers the scope of the strait has been expanded, stretching from the coasts of Jask and Sirik to beyond the Greater Tunb Island, and is redefined as a strategic zone, he explained. “It has expanded from a width of 20 to 30 miles in the past to over 200 to 300 miles, that is, 500 kilometers, from Jask and Sirik to beyond Qeshm Island and Greater Tunb. This is a complete crescent.”
Report: Israel Built Secret Base in Iraq To Support Bombing Campaign Against Iran - Israel established a secret military base in the desert of western Iraq to support the bombing campaign against Iran and bombed Iraqi soldiers to prevent them from finding it, The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday. Sources told the Journal that the military outpost was established just before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28 and that it was used as a logistics base for the Israeli Air Force. Israeli special forces and search and rescue teams were deployed to the base in case any Israeli fighter jets were shot down.In early March, local shepherds reported unusual military activity in the area, and Iraqi troops set out in Humvees to investigate, but they were hit by Israeli airstrikes. At the time, the Iraqi government blamed the strikes on the US. “This reckless operation was carried out without coordination or approval,” said Lt. Gen. Qais Al-Muhammadawi, a senior Iraqi military official.The Journal report has caused significant controversy in Iraq, with the Iraqi Joint Operations Command saying on Sunday that it found no evidence of a foreign military presence in western Iraq following clashes with an unidentified force on March 4.Around the same time, the US began bombing Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, or the PMF, a coalition of mainly Shia militias formed in 2014 to fight ISIS, which is part of Iraq’s security forces. During the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, US bases and other assets in Iraq came under heavy drone attacks, and some were claimed by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq, another group of Shia factions that includes some of the PMF militias.The US killed dozens of PMF fighters in its airstrikes in March, and one US attack on March 25 killed seven Iraqi soldiers. The US backs the Iraqi military against ISIS remnants in the country, though according to recent media reports, it has been withholding funding to pressure Baghdad over its ties with its neighbor, Iran.The US has controlled Iraq’s oil revenue since the 2003 invasion, giving Washington significant leverage over Baghdad, something the Trump administration is using in an attempt to influence the incoming government, which will be led by Ali al-Zaid.The controversy over the reported secret military base is also causing more anger in Iraq over the government’s relationship with the US, since Washington would have been aware of the Israeli outpost. An Iraqi security source told Saudi media that military activity of an “unknown origin” was observed in western Iraq, but that “the American side informed the Iraqi forces at the time of the need not to approach the area for security reasons.”
Israel Has Killed 120 Palestinians in Gaza Since Start of Ceasefire With Iran - Israeli attacks in Gaza have significantly escalated since Israel halted strikes on Iran under the ceasefire that started on April 8, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing data from Gaza’s Health Ministry and the conflict monitor Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED).According to the Health Ministry numbers, since April 8, Israeli attacks in the Strip have killed at least 120 Palestinians, including eight women and 13 children, 20% more fatalities than the five weeks that preceded the ceasefire with Iran.“The war is still ongoing,” Lafi Al-Najjar, a blind Palestinian living in a tent in Khan Younis who lost his nine-year-old son, Adel al-Najjar, to an April 28 Israeli strike, told Reuters. “It stopped in the announcement, but in reality and on the ground, the war has not stopped.”The ACLED recorded an increase of Israeli attacks in the month of April by 35% compared to March. Many of the attacks targeted Gaza’s police force as Israel seeks to disrupt Hamas’s control of the area of Gaza where Palestinian civilians live, which is about 40% of the territory, as the IDF has pushed the “yellow line” further west, expanding the territory it occupies.Israeli strikes continued on Wednesday with the Palestinian news agency WAFA reporting that eight people, mostly children, were injured by Israeli attacks across the Strip. A day earlier, at least one Palestinian was killed by an Israeli strike in central Gaza. The Health Ministry said on Tuesday that since the so-called ceasefire deal was signed in October 2025, the IDF has killed at least 856 Palestinians and injured 2,463.
Israeli Soldiers Were Given Orders To Kill All Men on Sight in Gaza: Israeli TV Report -- Israeli soldiers who killed three Israeli captives in Gaza back in 2023 have said that they were ordered to kill all men they encountered on sight, according to a TV report from Israel’s Channel 13. “A man, no matter what age, don’t play games with it; kill immediately,” one of the soldiers said, according to Middle East Eye. The soldier added that when it came to women and children, they were told, “Use your judgment, because things happen,” and that a similar order was given regarding donkeys. The soldier made the comments to Iris Haim, the mother of Yotam Haim, one of the three men killed by the IDF in Gaza City on December 15, 2023, despite the fact that they were shirtless and clearly unarmed, waving a white flag, and yelling “help” in Hebrew. The soldier, who spoke anonymously, said he was responsible for shooting one of the captives. Yotam survived the initial gunfire and retreated into a building, but when he returned to the area with his arms raised, he was shot at again and killed. Iris told Channel 13 that Israeli soldiers in Gaza had been effectively ordered to “kill every person walking on two legs.” The brigade commander admitted to her that IDF troops regularly shot and killed unarmed Palestinians, whom he labeled as “terrorists” even if they didn’t have weapons. “If a terrorist moves toward me, I try to kill him. I do not try to arrest him,” the commander said. When asked if unarmed people were also shot, the commander said, “Of course, we need to kill him – yes, even if he is completely unarmed.”
Israeli Forces Use Robots to Expand Offensive North of Lebanon’s Litani River - With US-brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon just days away and the “ceasefire” still reported as in place, Israel continues to launch offensives deeper into Lebanon, with ground troops from the Golani Brigade backed by robots as they moved all the way to the Litani River, and beyond. The IDF claimed that the troops killed “dozens” of Hezbollah fighters in close-quarters combat and had gained effective operational control over the forested area they expanded into. Six people were also reported killed in various Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon’s south. New evacuation orders were issued for yet more towns in southern Lebanon, and Israeli forces reportedly destroyed the solar-powered water station in Deir Mimas, overlooking to the Litani River from which it pumped drinking water for the locals. This growing destruction and expanded offensive casts something of a pall over the direct Israel-Lebanon talks, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam reiterated that his government wants a timeline for Israeli withdrawal, as well as US guarantees Israel will actually stop attacking. That’s the perennial hope with Israeli ceasefires in Lebanon, that someone will actual compel Israel to cease firing somewhere along the line. Right now that hope rests with the US, though trying to coax Lebanon’s president into meeting directly with Netanyahu seems the immediate priority.The IDF, meanwhile, claims to have killed more than 350 Hezbollah fighters since the ceasefire began, and hit 1,100 Hezbollah “targets.” The indications are that many of these targets are the like of the water station, however, and while Israel often posthumously promotes slain Lebanese to the rank of “Hezbollah commander,” the evidence is that a lot of the people they killed, both before and after the ceasefire went into effect, were innocent civilians.The Lebanese Health Ministry puts the death toll since the ceasefire began at 380. This includes a number of women, children and paramedics, so the suggestion that over 350 of them were actually Hezbollah is certainly a vast overestimation.
UN Peacekeepers Report 1,296 Israeli Strikes in Three Days in Lebanon Despite 'Ceasefire' - A growing number of Israeli strikes on Lebanon has led to death tolls once again on the rise, despite what is notionally a ceasefire in place between the two countries. The UNIFIL peacekeepers documented 1,296 trajectories of projectiles fired by Israeli forces in the past 72 hours. More than 100 strikes were recorded in the past 24 hours alone, and at least 87 people were killed by the IDF attacks over the weekend. The UNIFIL similarly noted that incidents of Israeli troops denying them freedom of movement continues on a virtual daily basis. War monitors reported some 3,688 Israeli strikes from the beginning of the invasion to the start of May, and while May has been in a state of ceasefire throughout those numbers are only down a little bit compared to the overall rate of destruction in the war. The Lebanese Health Ministry puts the latest death toll from the war at 2,869, along with 8,730 others wounded and between 20% and 25% of the entire Lebanese population displaced by the war.Lebanese leaders are urging the US, which brokered the ceasefire, to do something to actually convince Israel to halt the attacks. So far there are no indications any such steps will be taken, and indeed, Israel tends to couch their strikes as retaliation for Hezbollah violating the ceasefire. Hezbollah was not a party to the negotiated ceasefire, though they seemed to be expected to unilaterally halt all resistance to the Israeli occupation. Hezbollah, however, made clear that they would not honor a ceasefire that didn’t involve Israeli troops withdrawing from the country.
Lebanon Ceasefire Extended 45 Days, Israel Attacks Medical Center, Killing Paramedics - - Multiple days of negotiations in Washington D.C. have ended with Israel and Lebanon extending their ceasefire for an additional 45 days. Underscoring that Lebanese officials failed to get any assurances about the ceasefire working any better than it was before, Israel immediately attacked a medical center in southern Lebanon.The US promised to proactively faciliate military-to-military communications between Israel and Lebanon, since Israel rarely communicates with Lebanon’s military. But since Israel is accustomed to attacking Lebanon without any coordination with Lebanon, its not clear what this would actually accomplish, and indeed little appears to have changed since the extension.Israel issued new evacuation orders amid the announcement, leading to more displaced people fleeing north into the parts of Lebanon that notionally aren’t under attack but realistically get hit with Israeli airstrikes intermittently as well. Then an attack on Hanouf’s medical center came.At least six people were killed in the attack, according to Lebanese officials, including three paramedics. This adds to the ever-growing number of health care workers killed in the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, which has seen scores of paramedics killed in Israeli airstrikes on ambulances, and yet more killed when medical centers like this one come under inevitable attack.The IDF has yet to comment on exactly why they attacked this particular medical center, particularly so soon after the ceasefire extension. The Lebanese Health Ministry suggested the attack was in violation of international law.The ceasefire, during which hundreds of Lebanese have been killed, was scheduled to expire this weekend, but will now continue through the end of June, at least on paper. Whether anything will actually be changed for the 1.2-1.5 million displaced Lebanese people remains to be seen, but the early evidence is not promising.
Netanyahu Says He Made Secret Visit to the UAE During Iran War; UAE Denies the Claim - News From Antiwar.com The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday that the Israeli leader made a secret visit to the United Arab Emirates during the US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran, though Abu Dhabi later denied the claim.“In the midst of Operation Roaring Lion, Prime Minister Netanyahu secretly visited the United Arab Emirates, where he met with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed,” his office said in a statement. “This visit has led to a historic breakthrough in relations between Israel and the UAE.”In response, the UAE’s Foreign Ministry said that it “denies reports circulating regarding an alleged visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the UAE, or receiving any Israeli military delegation in the country.”“The UAE reaffirms that its relations with Israel are public and conducted within the framework of the well-known and officially declared Abraham Accords, and are not based on non-transparent or unofficial arrangements. Accordingly, any claims regarding unannounced visits or undisclosed arrangements are entirely unfounded unless officially announced by the relevant authorities in the UAE,” the statement added.In response to the Israeli statement, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi suggested that Iran was aware of a visit by Netanyahu to the UAE. “Netanyahu has now publicly revealed what Iran’s security services long ago conveyed to our leadership,” he wrote on X. “Enmity with the Great People of Iran is a foolish gamble. Collusion with Israel in doing so: unforgivable. Those colluding with Israel to sow division will be held to account,” Araghchi added.Earlier this week, US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said that Israel had deployed an Iron Dome air defense battery to the UAE, along with troops to operate it, appearing to confirm reports that said the same thing. “They were the first Abraham Accord member,” Huckabee said, referring to the UAE. “But look at the benefits that they have had as a result: Israel just sent them Iron Dome batteries and personnel to help operate them. How come? Because there’s an extraordinary relationship between the UAE and Israel.”
Russia and Ukraine Accuse Each Other of Violating Three-Day Ceasefire - Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of violating a three-day ceasefire that President Trump announced on Friday, following a pattern of most short-term truces that have been attempted in the four-year-old conflict.Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the ceasefire would be observed from May 9 to May 11 to mark Russia’s Victory Day, when Russia celebrates the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II, and would also include a prisoner swap.The Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Saturday that it recorded thousands of Ukrainian ceasefire violations and that it launched “tit-for-tat” attacks, though it also insisted its troops were observing the truce.Russia held its Victory Day parade in Moscow on Saturday and had warned there would be a major response if it were hit by Ukrainian drones, something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had hinted could happen, but there’s no sign the event was targeted.On Sunday night, Zelensky accused Russia of violating the truce and “not even particularly trying to” implement it, but he also acknowledged there were no major attacks beyond the frontline and areas near it.“It is encouraging that, as of now, there have been no massive attacks today – no missile strikes or air attacks. But in frontline areas and in communities near the front, there has been no quiet,” Zelensky said in an evening address.“Yesterday and today, Ukraine refrained from long-range retaliatory actions in response to the absence of large-scale Russian attacks,” he added. “We will continue to respond in the same mirrorlike manner, and if the Russians decide to return to full-scale warfare, our response will be immediate and significant.”Also on Sunday, an aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin said President Trump had not abandoned efforts to end the war. “I would not say that Washington is somehow abandoning the Ukraine issue,” said Yury Ushakov, according to Russia’s TASS news agency. “This is demonstrated precisely by our active telephone contacts. In particular, there is Trump’s initiative [on a ceasefire], which he proposed and which we supported.” Ushakov also said that the main issue in the talks to end the war is Ukraine’s refusal to withdraw its troops from the territory it still controls in the Donbas region. “Until [Ukraine] takes this step, we can hold several more rounds, dozens of rounds [of negotiations], but we will remain in exactly the same place, you understand? That is the issue,” he said.
Iran war effect: Why is Modi asking Indians to avoid foreign trips, gold? - Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged Indians to work from home, avoid international trips and not buy gold during the United States-Israeli war on Iran, which has caused global energy prices to surge, adding pressure on India’s foreign exchange reserves. Modi said people should move to online meetings instead of physical gatherings and use the work-from-home model that was adopted globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. He explained that such practices would cut down the use of fuel. Additionally, Modi urged people to use public transport and carpooling to save fuel. He called on families to reduce their cooking oil consumption, describing that move as both healthy and patriotic. Modi also asked Indians to avoid buying gold and to cut nonessential overseas travel for at least a year. The prime minister asked farmers to cut their fertiliser use by as much as half. And he explained his justification for asking the people of India to make these changes in their lifestyles and plans: “In the current situation, we must place great emphasis on saving foreign exchange.” Simply put, Modi was referring to the war on Iran and its far-reaching economic consequences, especially for India. Early in the war too, Modi had compared the economic crisis spawned by the conflict to the situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. On Sunday, he extended that parallel to also ask Indians to adopt some of the restrictive measures forced upon the world by the coronavirus crisis. Oil prices have climbed due to the war on Iran, which started on February 28. A barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, was worth $72.87 on February 27. As of Monday, a barrel of Brent crude was worth $105.45, an almost 50 percent increase. With rising fuel costs, airlines have hiked ticket prices. According to the travel search site Kayak, the average international airfare from the US to all destinations was $1,101 in the last week of April, a 16 percent increase from the same period a year earlier. Nearly half of the world’s traded urea, the most widely used fertiliser, and large volumes of other fertilisers are exported from Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz. Those supplies have now been dramatically disrupted. “Patriotism is not only about the willingness to sacrifice one’s life on the border. In these times, it is about living responsibly and fulfilling our duties to the nation in our daily lives,” Modi said. And those duties and responsibilities, per Modi’s comments, centre on India’s foreign exchange reserves. India’s foreign exchange reserves as of May 1 were $690.69bn, down $7.79bn, or about 1.12 percent, from the end of March, according to the Reserve Bank of India, the central bank. Compared with where India’s reserves stood before the war, the fall is more precipitous. As of February 27, India’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $728.5bn. The International Monetary Fund projected that India’s current account deficit (CAD) will be $84bn in 2026. A negative CAD means that it is effectively overdrawn – it has spent more money than it has. What do oil, gold, foreign travel and fertilisers have to do with all of this? India is the world’s third largest oil importer after China and the US. From April 2025 to March, the last Indian financial year, the country imported crude oil worth $123bn. That is the single largest contributor to India’s import budget. At second spot? Gold. Indians imported gold worth $72bn in the 2025-2026 fiscal year, second in the world only to China. According to the travel insurance firm ACKO, Indians travelling abroad spent $31.7bn in 2023-2024. In 2024, about 30.9 million Indian nationals departed India, according to data from the Bureau of Immigration. This was up from about 27.9 million Indian nationals in 2023. India is also the world’s largest importer of urea – it imported about 10 million tonnes of the fertiliser last year, according to analysis from S&P Global. India’s foreign exchange reserves are depleted by large volumes of imports of oil, gold, fertilisers and by Indians spending abroad. However, of these expenses, oil and fertilisers are hard for India to cut back on. Energy imports are essential to drive India’s economy, and fertilisers are critical both for the country’s agrarian economy – more than half of the country’s families depend on agriculture – and for food supplies. That leaves gold and foreign travel. Whether Indians will take up Modi’s call, though, is unclear.
Gunfire Erupts Inside Philippine Senate As Former 'Drug War' Enforcer Evades International Arrest Warrant -- At least a dozen gunshots rang out inside the Philippine Senate building in Manila earlier on Wednesday as police and marines moved to arrest Senator Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa on an International Criminal Court warrant for alleged crimes against humanity linked to former President Rodrigo Duterte's brutal war on drugs, a campaign that left more than 6,000 suspected drug dealers dead in operations.Reuters reports that it is unclear who fired the burst of shots inside the Senate building, but it occurred as Dela Rosa was taking refuge inside the building amid efforts to arrest the senator on an ICC warrant for alleged crimes against humanity.Other media outlets captured the chaotic moments when shots rang out in the Senate building's hallway."About 15 shots were fired, and we were forced to pull back," Al Jazeera reporter Jamela Alindogan said, adding that security forces then ordered the evacuation of the building.
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